```
                                                                 
Drug Control: Coca Cultivation and Eradication Estimates in	 
Colombia (08-JAN-03, GAO-03-319R).				 
                                                                 
In a letter to us, Congress noted the differing coca estimates	 
for Colombia. In subsequent discussions, we agreed to determine  
the (1) purposes of the Crime and Narcotics Center's (CNC) coca  
cultivation estimate and the Department of State's Bureau for	 
International Narcotics and Law Enforcement Affairs, the Office  
of Aviation's coca eradication estimate in Colombia and (2)	 
status of actions to implement the Executive Office of the	 
President, Office of National Drug Control Policy (ONDCP) study's
recommendations.						 
-------------------------Indexing Terms------------------------- 
REPORTNUM:   GAO-03-319R					        
    ACCNO:   A05823						        
  TITLE:     Drug Control: Coca Cultivation and Eradication Estimates 
in Colombia							 
     DATE:   01/08/2003 
  SUBJECT:   Controlled substances				 
	     Drug trafficking					 
	     Interagency relations				 
	     International cooperation				 
	     International relations				 
	     Narcotics						 
	     Strategic planning 				 
	     Colombia						 

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GAO-03-319R

GAO- 03- 319R Coca Estimates in Colombia United States General Accounting
Office Washington, DC 20548

January 8, 2003 The Honorable Charles H. Taylor House of Representatives
Subject: Drug Control: Coca Cultivation and Eradication Estimates in
Colombia Dear Mr. Taylor:

Colombia is the world*s leading producer and distributor of cocaine and a
significant supplier of heroin to the United States. According to the
Department of State, Colombia provides about 90 percent of the cocaine
entering the United States and approximately two- thirds of the heroin
found on the East Coast. A key objective of the U. S. counternarcotics
strategy is to assist Colombia in its efforts to reduce the amount of
illicit drug crops being cultivated in the country. Under the Department
of State*s Bureau for International Narcotics and Law Enforcement Affairs,
the Office of

Aviation supports the Colombian National Police*s efforts to eradicate
coca and opium poppy through aerial eradication. 1 In March 2002, the
Executive Office of the President, Office of National Drug Control

Policy (ONDCP), reported that coca cultivation in Colombia increased by 25
percent between 2000 and 2001* from 136,200 hectares 2 to 169,800
hectares* despite Colombian eradication efforts. These estimates were
prepared by the U. S. Director of Central Intelligence, Crime and
Narcotics Center (CNC). 3 However, U. S. Embassy in Bogota officials
questioned the reported increase, noting that the number of hectares of
coca the Office of Aviation estimated eradicated in 2001 had increased
substantially over previous years. 4 As the result of earlier concerns
about the coca cultivation estimates in Colombia, in November 2001, ONDCP
had initiated an evaluation of CNC and the Office of Aviation
methodologies for estimating coca

1 The leaves of the coca plant are the raw ingredient of cocaine and opium
poppy is used to produce heroin. The plants are sprayed from low- flying
airplanes with an herbicide that attacks the root system.

2 A hectare is 2.47 acres. 3 CNC*s estimates are presented in its report
titled Latin American Narcotics Cultivation and Production, Estimates 2001
(Washington, D. C.: March 2002).

4 At about the same time, the government of Colombia*s coca cultivation
estimate for the same period showed a net decrease of 11 percent. The
Colombian government numbers are from the United Nations* Drug Control
Program*s report Colombia: Annual Coca Cultivation Survey 2001 (Bogota:
March 2002).

GAO- 03- 319R Coca Estimates in Colombia Page 2

cultivation and eradication, respectively. ONDCP completed its study in
June 2002 and made a number of recommendations to improve both estimates.
In your letter to us, you noted the differing coca estimates for Colombia.
In subsequent discussions with your staff, we agreed to determine the (1)
purposes of

CNC*s coca cultivation estimate and the Office of Aviation*s coca
eradication estimate in Colombia and (2) status of actions to implement
the ONDCP study*s recommendations. To address these objectives, we
reviewed relevant documentation and met with cognizant officials from
ONDCP, CNC, and the Office of Aviation. Results in Brief

The coca cultivation estimate prepared by CNC and the coca eradication
estimate prepared the Office of Aviation in Colombia serve different
purposes and cannot be readily reconciled to one another because of
differences in their respective methodologies. Annually, CNC develops
cultivation estimates for coca, opium poppy, and

marijuana in drug- producing countries around the world. These are
published each March as part of the President*s determination whether to
continue providing U. S. assistance to major drug- producing and -transit
countries. To prepare its estimates, CNC analyzes black and white high-
resolution photographs taken primarily from satellites covering a
representative sample of the target

country*s known or suspected drug- growing areas. This allows CNC to
estimate illicit drug cultivation for the entire country. In Colombia,
these images are usually taken, weather permitting, between November and
January of each year. Because these cultivation estimates are used by
other U. S. government agencies to help determine the amount of illicit
drugs available for consumption in the United States, CNC focuses on
identifying fields of healthy coca plants with leaves that are suitable
for processing into cocaine. As part of its support for the Colombian
National Police, the Office of Aviation

uses airborne digital cameras to photograph coca fields for targeting
aerial spraying and, afterwards, to help estimate the number of hectares
eradicated. Through computer analysis, the Office of Aviation analyzes the
light reflecting off the vegetation to identify coca. The digital photos
can be taken anytime weather permits and are targeted over areas where the
Colombian National Police intends to conduct or has conducted aerial
eradication operations. Also, because the Office of Aviation wants to
identify any coca fields for aerial eradication, it includes coca
seedlings and mature, damaged, and dead plants in its definition of a coca
field.

The June 2002 ONDCP study recommended, among other things, that CNC and
the Office of Aviation reconcile their definitions of a coca field,
develop an error rate for each estimate, and enhance the technologies used
for developing the respective estimates. Both CNC and Office of Aviation
officials said they are in the process of implementing many of these
recommendations, though the Office of Aviation said

GAO- 03- 319R Coca Estimates in Colombia Page 3

that some would require additional funding. CNC noted that it would have
many of the changes necessary completed in time for its 2002 coca
cultivation estimate. As a result of CNC*s and the Office of Aviation*s
continuing efforts to address ONDCP*s concerns, we are not making any
recommendations at this time.

Background

Recognizing the seriousness of illegal drug activities in Colombia, the
Colombian government, in October 1999, announced a $7.5 billion
counternarcotics plan known as Plan Colombia. Among other things, Plan
Colombia proposed to reduce the cultivation, processing, and distribution
of illicit narcotics by 50 percent over 6 years. Achieving this goal
included undertaking a substantially increased aerial eradication program
in the primary coca- growing regions of Colombia. In July 2000, the United
States provided about $1.3 billion to Colombia, other Andean countries,
and U. S. agencies involved in drug interdiction and law enforcement. In
fiscal year 2002, the United States provided Colombia more than $550
million for counternarcotics- related activities; for fiscal year 2003,
the administration has requested about $670 million in additional
assistance to address many of these same purposes.

With the large infusions of counternarcotics funding into Colombia,
officials at the U. S. Embassy in Bogota expected to demonstrate progress
in reducing the amount of coca being cultivated in Colombia. However, as
the following table indicates, CNC*s 2001 estimate showed an increase in
coca cultivation of almost 25 percent. 5 As noted by the embassy, the CNC
estimated increase occurred despite the number of hectares estimated
eradicated (per year) increasing substantially in 2001 compared with
recent prior years.

Table: Hectares of Coca Estimated under Cultivation and Eradicated in
Colombia, 1998- 2001

Crime and Narcotics Center Office of Aviation

Year Hectares under cultivation

Percent increase

Hectares eradicated 1998 101,800 28 49,641 1999 122,500 20 39,113 2000
136,200 11 42,283 2001 169,800 25 77,165

Source: CNC figures are from its report titled Latin American Narcotics
Cultivation and Production, Estimates 2001 (Washington, D. C.: March
2002). The Office of Aviation figures were provided by its headquarters
office at Patrick Air Force Base, Florida.

5 According to CNC, slightly more than 33 percent of the increase was the
addition of a growing area not previously included. The increase in the
*traditional* growing areas was 16 percent.

GAO- 03- 319R Coca Estimates in Colombia Page 4

In March 2002, the U. S. Embassy in Bogota stated that the CNC estimates
were *very

wide of the mark and the apparent result of years of chronic
underestimation of the amount of coca being cultivated in Colombia.* 6
According to the embassy, CNC did not account for significant aerial
eradication operations that occurred in southern Colombia during late
2001. 7 CNC officials said that CNC alerted its customers that the 2001
annual estimate did not reflect the eradication activity. In addition,
when CNC*s coca cultivation estimates for Colombia were publicly released,
ONDCP noted that any coca killed by aerial eradication operations
conducted after CNC*s satellite

imagery was taken was not accounted for. 8 Purposes of Coca Cultivation
and Eradication Estimates

CNC and the Office of Aviation have very different purposes in developing
their respective estimates for coca cultivation and eradication. CNC*s
primary purpose is to determine how much coca, on an annual basis, is
available for processing into cocaine. The Office of Aviation*s primary
purpose is to identify coca fields for aerial eradication and then to
assess the effectiveness of the spray operations. The technologies used
reflect these differences. CNC obtains most of its information through
satellites and uses a random sampling technique to estimate coca
cultivation countrywide. The Office of Aviation uses aircraft mounted
multi- spectral 9 digital cameras to photograph designated areas suspected
of coca cultivation.

CNC*s Coca Cultivation Estimates The Foreign Assistance Act of 1961, as
amended, requires that for major drug- producing and -transit countries to
receive U. S. assistance, the President must annually certify that they
are cooperating with the United States to reduce the production and flow
of illegal drugs into the United States. 10 In March of each year, as part
of the certification process, the State Department publishes the
International Narcotics Control Strategy Report that describes the major
drug- producing and -transit countries* counternarcotics efforts and,
among other things, reports the amount of illicit narcotics being
cultivated based on CNC estimates. 6 U. S. Embassy, Bogota cable 2020,
March 4, 2002.

7 CNC officials noted, however, that CNC had concluded that coca
cultivation in southern Colombia was reduced 22 percent by aerial
eradication operations that took place the prior year between December 19,
2000, and February 5, 2001. 8 According to Office of Aviation officials,
it may take 45 days or more for coca plants to show the effects of aerial
eradication. Most of the imagery CNC analyzed for its 2001 estimate was
taken before or less than 45 days after the major aerial eradication
effort in southern Colombia and would not likely

have shown the effects of the spraying. 9 The multi- spectral cameras the
Office of Aviation uses allow it to examine three different light- band
settings.

10 22 U. S. C. 2291j. Alternatively, the President may certify that vital
U. S. national interests require that assistance be provided.

GAO- 03- 319R Coca Estimates in Colombia Page 5

CNC has been involved in estimating crop cultivation for more than 30
years. In the late 1960s, it began developing imagery- based statistical
techniques that, by the 1970s, were used to estimate grain production in
the Soviet Union. In 1985, CNC began using these techniques to estimate
coca cultivation and, by 1990, it used them to develop worldwide illicit
crop estimates. CNC*s annual cultivation estimates are designed to provide
U. S. decision makers an estimate of the amount of illicit drugs being
cultivated worldwide and serve as the basis for estimating the amount of
illicit narcotics available for consumption in the United States. CNC*s
estimates are not

designed to quantify or account for activities such as eradication or
replanting that may take place throughout the year. In preparing its
Colombian estimate, CNC develops a statistical sample of known and
suspected coca- growing areas. CNC relies primarily on high- resolution
satellite imagery of these areas, but also uses commercial satellite
imagery and aerial photographs. CNC selects targets to analyze based on
prior history and information from other sources, including the Office of
Aviation and the Department of Defense. The satellite imagery is black and
white photographs that are usually taken, weather permitting, in November
through January each year to allow time for them to be analyzed and the
results incorporated into the annual March report. Because CNC*s coca
cultivation estimates are used to help determine the amount of cocaine
available for consumption in the United States, CNC focuses on identifying
healthy coca plants with leaves that are suitable for harvesting and
processing into cocaine.

The Office of Aviation*s Coca Eradication Estimates Under Section 481 of
the Foreign Assistance Act of 1961, as amended, 11 the State Department
provides assistance to various drug- producing and -transit countries to
support their efforts in reducing drug- trafficking, production, and
related activities. As part of this assistance, the Office of Aviation has
supported the Colombian National Police in conducting aerial eradication
missions since 1995.

In 1998, the Office of Aviation began using two airborne multi- spectral
highresolution digital cameras to photograph and locate coca fields in
Colombia. Through sophisticated computer analysis of the light reflecting
off the ground vegetation, the Office of Aviation is able to identify
suspected coca fields for planning spray missions. After the fields have
been sprayed, the targeted areas are often photographed again to help the
Office of Aviation estimate how much of the coca has been eradicated. 12
The Office of Aviation also applies an effectiveness factor or *kill

rate* to the fields sprayed to estimate how much coca was eradicated. 13
In identifying 11 22 U. S. C. 2291. 12 Selected fields are also visually
examined either by flying low over the field in helicopters or,
occasionally, by landing and more closely inspecting the plants. 13 Based
on prior experience, the Office of Aviation estimates that 87 percent of
the coca sprayed eventually dies, but the ONDCP team questioned this
effectiveness factor.

GAO- 03- 319R Coca Estimates in Colombia Page 6

coca fields, the Office of Aviation includes coca seedlings, mature coca,
coca that may be dying or dead because of spray operations, and unkempt
coca (fields of irregular size and shape not neatly maintained).

The ONDCP Study

In November 2001, ONDCP initiated an evaluation of CNC*s methodology for
estimating coca cultivation and the Office of Aviation*s methodology for
identifying coca fields and estimating the amount of coca being eradicated
through its aerial eradication program. ONDCP completed its study in June
2002 and made numerous recommendations to improve the estimates developed
by CNC and the Office of Aviation. 14 As reported in the ONDCP study, CNC
compared its analysis of coca fields in a

predefined area of southern Colombia with the Office of Aviation*s
analysis of the same area. The results highlighted the dramatic
differences in the two approaches. Out of 764 coca fields in the
designated area, CNC and the Office of Aviation differed on the
identification of 603 of the fields or about 79 percent. The discrepancy
was largely based on differences in definition of what should be counted
as a coca field. According to the ONDCP team, the CNC definition was *very
conservative* and only classified a field as coca *when the field is
active and contains only coca.* According to the team, this likely led to
undercounting. The Office of Aviation used a *liberal* definition of coca
fields that includes coca seedlings and mature plants, as well as

coca that is damaged or dead. As a result, the team concluded that the
Office of Aviation tended to overcount coca.

The ONDCP team also reported that neither CNC nor the Office of Aviation
had adopted a statistically rigorous accuracy assessment, commonly known
as an error rate, for their respective methodologies. Based on available
data, the ONDCP team could not determine the statistical accuracy
associated with either the cultivation or eradication estimates.

Additionally, the ONDCP team reported that the technologies used by CNC
and the Office of Aviation were insufficient for the purposes they were
being used. For example, CNC*s technology does not allow it to account for
image distortions or changes in terrain and the atmosphere, 15 and the
Office of Aviation*s technology does not allow it to accurately account
for not only coca that may be present, but also other vegetation that,
according to the ONDCP team, should be separately identified.

14 ONDCP contracted with four experts in imagery and remote sensing. For
purposes of this report, we refer to them as the ONDCP team. Its final
report was titled Methodological and Technological Evaluation * Assessing
Coca Cultivation and Eradication Impact in Colombia (Putumayo Region)
(Washington, D. C.: June 11, 2002).

15 CNC pointed out that the distortions do not present too much of a
problem when the images are visually interpreted. However, CNC is
upgrading its technology to correct for these distortions in 2002 as it
moves toward a digital imaging system.

GAO- 03- 319R Coca Estimates in Colombia Page 7

The ONDCP team made nearly 20 recommendations to improve the estimates
developed by CNC and the Office of Aviation. Overall, the team recommended
that CNC and the Office of Aviation

agree on definitions of what constitutes a coca field and the various
types of other vegetation that may be present,

conduct quantitative accuracy assessments, and

improve their respective methodologies to take advantage of state- of-
the- art advancements in the respective technologies used.

According to CNC and Office of Aviation officials, many of the
recommendations are in the process of being implemented. CNC officials
told us they plan to implement all of the recommendations pertaining to
CNC and have contracted with one of the ONDCP team members to help. CNC
expects to have many of the recommended changes in place for its 2002
analysis (for release in March 2003). Officials from the Office of
Aviation said some of the recommendations pertaining to it would probably
not be fully implemented in the foreseeable future because of insufficient
funding. For example, upgrading its technology to identify more types of
vegetation will not be undertaken at this time because of the expense
involved. A meeting between CNC and Office of Aviation officials to
discuss recommendations affecting both organizations* such as coca field
definitions* is planned for early 2003. 16 Agency Comments

The Department of State provided written comments on a draft of this
report (see appendix). State noted that we provide a useful description of
the differences and limitations of measuring aspects of illegal drug
cultivation in Colombia. State also commented that this is an extremely
important issue that directly affects U. S. drug policies, programs, and
budgets. It went on to elaborate on some of the limitations associated
with estimating coca cultivation and production.

In addition, ONDCP, CNC, and Office of Aviation officials provided
technical comments that we have incorporated into this report, as
appropriate. Scope and Methodology To determine the purposes of the
Colombian coca estimates prepared by CNC and

the Office of Aviation and the status of the ONDCP team*s recommendations,
we reviewed relevant documentation and met with cognizant officials at
ONDCP and CNC in Washington, D. C., and at the Office of Aviation
headquarters at Patrick Air

Force Base, Florida. In connection with other work, we also traveled to
Colombia 16 An October 2002 meeting was canceled because of scheduling
conflicts.

GAO- 03- 319R Coca Estimates in Colombia Page 8

and discussed the coca cultivation and eradication estimates with the
Narcotics Affairs Section at the U. S. Embassy in Bogota.

Our review was conducted from April through December 2002 in accordance
with generally accepted government auditing standards.

- - - - - We are sending copies of this report to appropriate
congressional committees, the Secretary of State, the Director of Central
Intelligence, and the Director of ONDCP. We will also make copies
available to others upon request. In addition, this report will be
available at no charge on our Web site at http:// www. gao. gov.

If you or your staff have any questions concerning this report, please
contact me at (202) 512- 4268 or Al Huntington, Assistant Director, at
(202) 512- 4140. Other key contributors to this report were Allen Fleener
and Ronald Hughes.

Sincerely yours, Jess T. Ford, Director International Affairs and Trade

Appendix GAO- 03- 319R Coca Estimates in Colombia Page 9 Comments From the
Department of State

Appendix GAO- 03- 319R Coca Estimates in Colombia Page 10

Appendix GAO- 03- 319R Coca Estimates in Colombia Page 11

(320115)
*** End of document. ***
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