Technology Assessment of Changes in the

Future Use and Characteristics of the

Automobile Transportation

System—Volume II: Technical Report

February 1979

NTIS order #PB-293645
Library of Congress Catalog Card Number 79-600030

For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office

Washington, D.C. 20402 Stock No. 052-003-00650-2
Preface

Origin of the Assessment

This assessment of the automobile transportation system was undertaken at the

request of Chairman Warren G. Magnuson of the Senate Commerce, Science, and

Transportation Committee. It examines the automobile as a mode of personal transportation and considers issues and policy options pertaining to vehicles, highways,

and related industries, services, and institutions. The assessment was authorized in

February 1976 by the Technology Assessment Board, which approved a program to:

“Assess the changes in the future use and characteristics of the automobile transportation system in the near term (to 1985) and the long term (to 2000 and beyond ).”

The objectives of the automobile technology assessment were:

●

●

●

●

To describe the factors that influence the characteristics of the automobile system, its use, and the services supporting its use,

To identify and characterize potential changes in automobile characteristics

and use,

To assess the near-term and far-term effects of various alternative Federal Government policies relating to automobile characteristics and use,

To present the findings of the assessment in a form useful to Congress and the

public.

Study Approach

As a first step in the assessment, OTA identified a number of issues that now confront, or in the future might confront, the Congress in formulating policies related to

the automobile. These issues were grouped in five areas:

● Energy—conserving petroleum as a motor fuel and making the transition to

alternate energy sources,

● Environment—protecting the environment from the adverse effects of

automobile use,

● Safety—reducing the toll of death and injury on the highways,

• Mobility—providing adequate personal mobility for all, either by automobile

or by alternate modes of transportation, and

● Cost and Capital—dealing with the consumer costs of personal transportation

and assuring the capital resources to support the evolution of the automobile

transportation system.

With the assistance of the Automobile Assessment Advisory Panel and independent consultants, the OTA Transportation Group prepared a series of working papers

describing these issues and identifying the interests of various stakeholders. These

papers were issued in October 1977 and served as a framework for later activities in

the assessment.

. . .

111
The major task of the assessment, analysis of policy alternatives, was carried out

with the help of two contractors: SRI International and a team composed of System

Design Concepts, Inc. (Sydec), Energy and Environmental Analysis, Inc. (EEA), and

The Institute for Safety Analysis, Inc. The results of these contractor efforts are contained in two working documents:

Potential Changes in the Use and Characteristics of the Automobile, Stanford

Research Institute International, January 1978.

Technology Assessment of Changes in the Future Use and Characteristics of the

Automobile, System Design Concepts, Inc.; Energy and Environmental Analysis, Inc.; The Institute for Safety Analysis, Inc., January 1978.

Based on these studies, the OTA Transportation Group has prepared this report,

which is a synthesis of the contractors’ work and supplementary analyses by the OTA

staff and consultants. Thus, while this report is derived from material prepared by

contractors, OTA bears sole responsibility for interpretation of the information and

presentation of findings.

Organization of the Report

This report consists of three basic parts. The first part—chapters 1 through 4—

contains background information, a description of the elements of the automobile

transportation system, Base Case projections, and delineation of the policy alternatives that were considered. These chapters provide a baseline of present and future

automobile system characteristics that serves as the frame of reference for policy

analysis.

The second part of the report—chapters 5 through 9—contains analyses of policy

options in each of the five issue areas: energy, environment, safety, mobility, and cost

and capital. Each chapter is similarly organized and contains a discussion of issues, a

summary of present policy, a statement of policy options, and analysis of effects and

impacts.

The third part of the report—chapter 10—is a survey of expected technological

developments in the near term (through 1985) and in the far term (to 2000 and

beyond).

A summary of major findings is presented at the beginning of each chapter. A

detailed table of contents is also provided at the beginning of each chapter to facilitate

reference to specific topics.

iv
OTA Transportation Group

Robert L. Maxwell, Group Manager

M. Junior Bridge Debi Chertok D. Linda Garcia

Larry L. Jenney H. James Leach Kathleen G. Lolich

Linda McCray Joel A. Miller Paula Walden

Technical Assistanc e

Raytheon Service Company

Consultant s

Richard P. Brennan Sidney Goldstein

Myron Miller Donald E. Veraska

Contractor s

Energy and Environmental Analysis—principally: Robert L. Sansom and James N.

Heller.

International Research and Technology—principally: Robert U. Ayres.

Purdue University, Center for Interdisciplinary Engineering Studies—R. Eugene

Goodson and Kenneth R. Friedman.

Science Applications, Inc.—David A. Couts and Yardena Mansoor.

SRI International—principally: Ronald L. Braun, David A. Curry, Mark D.

Levine, Thomas F. Mandel, Randall J. Pozdena, Robert S. Ratner, Peter Schwartz,

and Philip D. Umholtz.

System Design Concepts—principally: Lowell K. Bridwell, Joseph R. Stowers, and

Barbara Wauchope.

The Institute for Safety Analysis—Robert Brenner.

Urban Institute—Melvin Cheslow and Gerald K. Miller,

OTA Publishing Staff

John C. Holmes, Publishing Officer

Kathie S. Boss Joanne Heming
OTA Automobile

Assessment Advisory Panel

R. Eugene Goodson, Chairman

Institute for interdisciplinary Engineering Studies

Purdue University

William G. Agnew

Technical Director

General Motors Research Laboratories

Leo Blatz

Executive Officer

ESSO inter-America, Inc.

John J. Byrne

Chairman of the Board

GEICO and Affiliates

B. J. Campbell

Highway Safety Research Center

University of North Carolina

Anne P. Carter

Department of Economics

Brandeis University

Frank W. Davis, Jr.

Transportation Center

University of Tennessee

Clarence Ditlow, III

Center for Auto Safety

Lament Eltinge

Director of Research

Eaton Corporation Research Center

Norman Emerson*

Executive Assistant to the Mayor

City of Los Angeles

William Haddon, Jr.

President

insurance Institute for Highway Safety

Kent Joscelyn

Highway Safety Research Institute

University of Michigan

Joshua Menkes

National Science Foundation

Wilfred Owen

The Brookings Institution

Archie H. Richardson

President

Auto Owners Action Council

Angela Rooney

Upper Northeast Coordinating Council

Richard H. Shackson* *

Director of the Office of Environmental Research

Ford Motor Company

S. Fred Singer

Professor of Environmental Sciences

University of Virginia

Lawrence J. White***

Graduate School of Business Administration

New York University

Howard Young

United Auto Workers

The OTA Automobile Assessment Advisory Panel provided valuable advice, critique, and

assistance to the OTA staff throughout this assessment. Their participation, however, does not necessarily constitute approval or endorsement of this report. OTA assumes sole responsibility for the

report and the accuracy of the content.

v i
Contents

-.

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

6.

7.

8.

9.

10.

Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Characterization of the Automobil

The No-Policy Change Baseline . .

e Transportation System . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Overview of Policy Alternatives . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Page

3

13

29

75

Energy issues, Policies, and Findings. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ................107

Environmental Is:

Safety Issues, Poli

sues, Policies, and Findings. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 143

cies, and Findings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 185

Mobility Issues, Policies, and Findings ., . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .225

Cost and Capital Issues, Policies, and Findings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. ...253

Technology. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ...297

Glossary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .365

Bibliography . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . , . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ......373

vii

Chapter l.—INTRODUCTION

Page

Background . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3

Issues . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4

Energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ........4

Environment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ........5

Safety . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ........6

Mobility . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ........7

Cost and Capital. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ........8
INTRODUCTION CHAPTER

BACKGROUND

During this century, the automobile has become a central feature of American society. The

overwhelming proportion of personal travel in

this country is now by auto. There are now over

100 million passenger vehicles in the United

States—about one for each two people. Every

year automobiles accumulate over 1 trillion

miles of travel over a paved road and street network of nearly 4 million miles. The automobile

influences personal decisions about where to

live, work, and shop and about hundreds of

other activities and pursuits. It has become fundamental to our way of 1ife.

The emergence of the automobile as the predominant form of personal transportation has

been fostered by a wide variety of public policies. These include policies that provide direct

support of automobile transportation, such as

taxes to finance the vast roadway network, and

those that provide indirect support, such as

price controls to ensure low-cost gasoline.

Other public policies have encouraged urban

and suburban development patterns that are

geared to extensive automobile use. At the same

time, public transportation services, which provide alternative modes of urban and intercity

travel, have been allowed to deteriorate. The

combined result of these policies—intentional

and otherwise—has been increasing reliance on

the automobile for personal transportation.

In recent years, it has become evident that

continued dependence on the automobile gives

rise to conflicts with other needs or goals of our

society. It is recognized that automobile use

produces degradation of the environment. Automobiles consume a large share of increasingly

scarce petroleum supplies. Automobile crashes

are a principal cause of death and injury.

Clearly, the problems related to automobile

use are important from the standpoint of public

policy. Equally important are the opportunities

and benefits that the automobile affords. These

include the major role of the automobile manufacturing, supply, and service industries in the

American economy and the extensive personal

mobility that the automobile provides. The

challenge confronting the policy maker is how to

preserve and extend the benefits of automobile

transportation while guarding against the

adverse effects brought by present and future

automobile technology.

The automobile transportation system is both

large and complex. It encompasses not only the

vehicle and the associated manufacturing, service, repair, fuel, and insurance industries but

also the highway system, which includes construction, maintenance, policing, and traffic

management. The highway system serves more

than just private passenger vehicles. It also

serves trucking and the various modes of mass

transportation that use the public way. This

assessment, however, concentrates on the passenger car and the industries, facilities, and

services that support its use as a mode of personal transportation. Other modes of travel are

considered only insofar as they represent alternatives to the automobile as means of personal

transportation. For the purposes of this assessment, the automobile is defined as a vehicle designed primarily for private passenger use. 1

Even with this limited definition of the automobile transportation system, the number of

concerns that could be addressed is still quite

large and some selectivity is necessary to
4 . Changes in the Future Use and Characteristics Of the Automobile Transportation System

achieve a proper focus. This assessment concen- ●

trates on five groups of issues that now confront, or may confront, Congress in formulating ,

policies relating to the automobile. They are:

●

●

Energy—conserving petroleum as a motor

fuel and making a transition to alternate ●

energy sources.

Environment—protecting the environment

from the adverse effects of automobile use.

ISSUES

Energy

Over the last 50 or 60 years, trillions of dollars have been spent structuring our transportation system, our cities, our jobs, and our lifestyles around the automobile. The dominance of

the automobile has been made possible by a

plentiful and inexpensive supply of fuel from

petroleum. We now have 25 to 50 years (if current estimates of world reserves are accurate) to

make the transition to alternate sources of

energy. This period will be characterized by increasingly higher gasoline prices as the supply of

petroleum diminishes.

The energy problem is complicated by uncertainties of both supply and demand. A point of

particular uncertainty is how much time is

available to make a transition to alternate energy sources before petroleum supplies are severely depleted or become prohibitively costly.

The problem is compounded by several factors. For example, the development of new

energy supplies requires leadtime. Conservation

measures can help in this regard, but implementation of these conservation measures also requires leadtime. In addition, petroleum will be

required as fuel in the effort to develop alternative energy sources. Finally, the environmental and safety effects of alternate fuels and

engines add considerable risk that industry investments may prove unwise in the light of

future events and emerging conditions.

The energy issues explored in this assessment

address the two fundamental ways of reducing

Safety—reducing death and injury on

streets and highways.

Mobility—providing adequate personal

mobility for all, either by automobile or

other modes of transportation.

Cost and Capital—controlling the consumer and public costs of automobile transportation and assuring the capital resources to

support the evolution of the automobile

transportation system.

--. ,

the dependence of the automobile on petroleum:

expanding alternate energy supplies and limiting

petroleum demand.

Since the gasoline shortage of 1973-74, the

Federal Government has adopted policies to accomplish both petroleum conservation and development of new energy supplies. The regulation of the automobile, which now consumes 30

percent of the petroleum used in this country,

has been an important part of the effort. Policies
Ch. 1—Introduction • 5

intended to reduce automobile fuel consumption

have included regulation of automobile fuel

economy, imposition of a nationwide 55 mph

speed limit, and encouragement of ride sharing.

In addition, the Federal Government now has

programs for development of new engine technologies, for supporting the development and

demonstration of electric and hybrid vehicles,

and for the development of synthetic fuels from

oil shale and coal.

With the clear prospect of diminishing petroleum supply, the need to pursue both conservation and the transition to alternate sources of

energy is apparent. The pressures created by an

energy shortage could alter many facets of

American life, including the use of the automobile for personal transportation. These issues,

and their important implications for this country and its citizens, form one of the focal points

of the assessment.

Environment

expanding industrial and technological activities. The second is the changing nature of

pollutants, many of which are hazardous to

human health and the ecological systems that

support human life. Although opinion in the

scientific community is sharply divided about

the danger of specific pollutants and the overall

seriousness of the environmental problem, it is

widely agreed that continued emission of increasing amounts of pollutants could cause

grave, and perhaps irreparable, damage to the

air we breathe, the water we drink, and the land

where we grow our food.

Within the last two decades, attention has

been drawn to the automobile system as a major

source of pollution. The environmental effects

of the automobile—most notably atmospheric

pollution—have become subjects of widespread

concern to the scientific community, governments, and the general public. This concern

culminated in the passage of the Clean Air Act

(and its subsequent amendments) and the National Environmental Policy Act.

There are two major trends in modern indus- With this legislation, particularly the 1970

trialized society that create concern about the amendments to the Clean Air P.et, Congress emenvironment. The first is the increasing amount barked on a major program to reduce atmosof wastes produced by growing populations and pheric pollution caused by automobile emis-
6 ● Changes in the Future Use and Characteristics of the Automobile Transportation System

sions. The administration of the Clean Air Act

and the modification and extension of its provisions in 1977 have generated deep controversy

among the Federal Government, the automobile

industry, and the public concerned about the environment.

The environmental effects of the automobile

system are not limited to atmospheric pollution.

The noise of vehicles, the disposal of solid

wastes (scrap vehicles and major parts, such as

tires and batteries), the contamination of water

by spilled lubricants, spilled fuel and road salt,

and the adverse impacts of automobiles and

highways on cities, rural areas, and natural preserves are problems that also require attention.

The issues that emerge from the general problem of how to prevent environmental damage

by the automobile system are highly controversial. Public health and well-being are at stake.

But so, too, is the economic health of an industry that constitutes a major share of the

economy and provides the dominant mode of

personal transportation for American workers

and families. The Federal Government has a

clear responsibility to protect the public interest, but in so doing it must be mindful of the

equity of the measures it adopts.

Thus, the issues of how to protect the environment from the adverse impacts of the automobile, and the policies available to the Federal

Government to accomplish this, have an important place in this assessment.

Safety

Despite significant improvements in safety

over the years, the automobile remains a principal cause of death and injury in the United

States. The number of automobile deaths in this

country since 1900 (2 million) is 3 times the

number of battle deaths (652,000) suffered by

the United States in all wars. In 1977 nearly

48,000 Americans died as a result of motor vehicle crashes, and over 4.4 million were injured.2

The earliest Federal response to the highway

safety problem came in 1924, with the First National Conference on Street and Highway Safe2U. S. Department of Transportation, Fatal Accident Reporting

System, 1977 data (republication); U.S. Public Health Service,

Division of Vital Statistics, 1977 data (republication).

ty. The conference dealt with matters such as

traffic control, construction and engineering,

education, and motor vehicle design. Many of

these subjects are still controversial issues in

highway safety today.

Additional conferences were held over the

following three decades, but little specific action

by the Federal Government resulted. Beginning

in the 1950’s, however, a more intense interest

in highway safety was displayed by Congress

and the executive branch, and several programs

were initiated.

The Federal Government did not become

heavily involved in automobile safety, however, until 1966 when Congress enacted the National Traffic and Motor Vehicle Safety Act and

the Highway Safety Act. The former established

safety standards and mandatory inspection programs for motor vehicles used in interstate commerce. The latter provided financial assistance

to the States for highway safety programs.

At the present time, there are more than 50

Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards in

force. Most of these apply to passenger cars.

There are also 18 Federal Highway Safety Program Standards, dealing with highway design,

driver licensing, police and medical services,

and the like. This regulation of vehicle and

highway safety features is considered to be partially responsible for the reduction in the rate of

highway deaths that has occurred in the past

decade. The rate, expressed in deaths per hundred million vehicle miles of travel, dropped

from 5.7 in 1966 to 3.3 in 1977,

There are problems that may impede further

safety improvements. The Federal Highway Administration claims, for example, that the

highway safety problem is “aggravated by the

diffusion of responsibility for safety. ”3 Another

problem which is cited is the reluctance of consumers to bear the increased costs of safety

features. Also, there is a tug-of-war between

consumers who are resisting mandated safety

equipment as an infringement of civil rights and

some citizen groups and insurance companies

who are pushing hard for development and

mandated use of more safety devices in cars.

(Washington, D. C., August 1977), p. 8.
Ch. 1—Introduction ● 7

In addition to these concerns, there is the

potential for conflict between improved safety

and automobile energy conservation. Smaller

cars, which are desirable because of their fuel

economy, may offer less protection for occupants in crashes. The introduction of features to

improve crashworthiness may add to the weight

of the vehicle and entail a penalty in fuel

economy.

Safety is a complex problem that involves

driver behavior, vehicle characteristics, roadway features, and driving conditions. Safety

must be approached both as a question of vehicle and roadway design and as a question of

use—driving habits, traffic regulation, law enforcement, risk management. Safety is not just

an individual concern. Industry has an important part to play. All levels of government—

local, State, and Federal—are involved. There is

no single, simple solution to the problem of

highway deaths and injuries, and the public

policy questions relating to the safety of the

automobile transportation system are among

the thorniest that must be faced.

Mobility

One of the goals of society is to enable

citizens to take part in activities that improve

and maintain their social and economic wellbeing. Essential to the attainment of this goal is

the ability to reach jobs, services, consumer

outlets, recreation sites, and other locations. To

this end, the Federal Government has acted as a

major provider and regulator of transportation

services. The challenge today is to find new

technological and institutional solutions that

will improve the individual’s ability to reach

desired and necessary activities in a way that is

compatible with other national goals such as

energy conservation, environmental preservation, and public safety.

Federal policies supporting automobile use

date back to the beginning of this century. The

first act providing Federal aid for highways was

passed in 1916. The series of highway acts

which followed have provided increasingly

greater Federal support and have expanded the

extent of Federal involvement. In 1956, ConPhoto Credit U S Department of Transportatlon
8 ● Changes in the Future Use and Characteristics of the Automobile Transportation System

gress enacted legislation that established the Interstate Highway System and provided a source

of financing—the Highway Trust Fund. In recent years, Federal policy has imposed numerous conditions on the use of highway funds,

such as requirements for comprehensive planning and for environmental impact assessment.

Also, the types of activities that may be financed with Federal highway funds have been

expanded considerably; for example, highway

funds may now be used for certain types of public transportation projects,

Auto use has also been supported by Federal

policy in less direct ways. Price controls on

gasoline have kept fuel costs low. Suburban and

exurban development, which is heavily dependent on auto use, has been encouraged by Federal

mortgage assistance policies. Until recently,

there was essentially no Federal support for

public transportation. Transit systems in many

urban areas deteriorated badly. Service levels

were reduced, costs rose, private entrepreneurs

went bankrupt, and local governments were

forced to assume ownership and operation.

Public transit, which could have provided an

alternative to auto use, declined further and became even less attractive.

Several factors have come into play recently

to force a reevaluation of Federal policy toward

personal transportation in general, and auto use

in particular. Concern about future energy supply and environmental protection has focused

attention on the automobile as a contributor to

these problems. There is increasing awareness

that mobility itself is deteriorating as a result of

traffic congestion. Finally, there is concern that

some segments of the population cannot share

in the mobility provided by the automobile.

These include those who cannot afford to own

and operate a car, handicapped persons, some

elderly persons, and those who are too young to

drive. The decline of public transit and the

growing dominance of the automobile often

deprives these persons of the mobility enjoyed

by others.

The consideration of mobility in this assessment focuses on the future role of the automobile in providing mobility and on the broader

issue of the role of the Federal Government in

providing adequate personal mobility for all,

either by automobile or by alternate modes of

transportation.

Cost and Capital

The automobile has a far-reaching impact on

the U.S. economy. The automobile transportation system, when defined in its broadest sense,

accounts for approximately 10 percent of the

gross national product and is the direct employer of about 1 out of every 18 American workers. 4 The employment opportunities created by

the automobile transportation system are not

only vast, but widely varied. Jobs exist in both

the public and private sectors and require such

skills as production and manufacturing, maintenance and repair, law enforcement, regulation,

research and development, traffic management,

international finance, economics, and construction.

Photo Crecfit U S Department of Housing & Urban Development

One of the most complex issues concerning

the automobile is the cost of the system, on both

a national and an individual scale. Along with

food and housing, automobile transportation is

one of the three major items in the average

household budget. It amounts to an annual total

outlay of $130 billion and represents about 13

percent of personal consumption expenditures. s

A-13.

Government Printing Office, 1977), pp. 85 and 87.
Ch. 1—/ntroduction

Thus, policies that change the costs of automobile ownership and use will have wide-ranging effects on the American consumer.

On a national level, the public cost of the

automobile transportation system is most visible in expenditures for roadbuilding. The Federal Highway Administration estimates that approximately $30 billion was spent for highway

purposes by all levels of government in 1976.

Federal aid, which was applied to 950,000 miles

of road carrying about three-quarters of all

vehicle traffic, b amounted to about $7 billion.

The Federal Government’s investment in the

automobile transportation system is not limited

to road construction. Support is also given to

the fuel and materials industries, in the form of

depletion allowances. In addition, the types of

highway projects that are eligible for Federal

assistance have progressively been expanded.

Federal aid is now available for relocation

assistance for residents and business establishments displaced by road construction. Federal

highway monies may also be used for research

and development, land acquisition, highway

beautification, safety programs, emergency

relief, construction of parking facilities, education and training, noise abatement, and more.

The issues of cost and capital could have a

powerful influence on the future development of

the automobile transportation system. The

assessment focuses on those areas where Federal

policy could influence the economics of the system and the course of future technological development.

Chapter 2.—CHARACTERIZATION OF THE AUTOMOBILE

TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM

Page

Stakeholders . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13

Policies (A) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13

Technology (B). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16

AutoStock(C) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16

Economics(D). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16

Demographics(E). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17

TransportationSystem(F). .. .. .. .. ... ... ......18

Mobility(G) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18

Automobile-Related lndustries(H). .. ... ... .....20

Energy(1) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ......** . . . . 2 1

Environment(J). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22

Safety(K) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ....**.. . . . . 22

Costs(L) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ....**.. . . . . 23

Social Effects(M) ● . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .23

LIST OF TABLES

Table No. Page

1. Major Policies Affecting the Automobile

Transportation System . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15

2. Characteristics of the Automobile Stock, 1976 16

3. Selected 1976 Economic Data . . . . . . . .......17

4. Selected 1976 Demographic Data . . . . .......17

5. Highway and Transit Expenditures, 1976 .. ...18

6. Passenger Car Use. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . , ..19

7. Public Transit Ridership, 1977..............20

8. Financial and Economic Data for the

Automobile Industry . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ..20

9.1977 Traffic Crash Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . .......23

10. Costs of Owning and Operating an

Automobile, 1976 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .......23

11. Annual Highway-Related Displacements ... , .24

12. Transportation Disadvantaged Population .. ..24

LIST OF FIGURES

Figure No. Page

1. Automobile Transportation System Elements

and interrelationships. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14

2. Modes of Personal Transportation. . . . .......19

3. U.S. Demand for Oil in 1976 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .21

4. Sources of Air Pollution. . . . . . . . . . . . . .......22

5. Materials in a Typical 1978 Model Automobile. 23
CHARACTERIZATION

OF THE AUTOMOBILE

TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM

CHAPTER

The automobile transportation system can be

described in many ways. Chapter 1 includes an

informal description that offers some perspectives on the role that automobiles and highways

play in our society, This chapter provides a different kind of description—a more formal characterization that defines the major elements of

the automobile transportation system and

shows the relationships among these elements.

The purpose is to describe, in quantitative

terms, the parts of the system and to delineate

the effects that the automobile system has on

society.

Figure 1 is a diagram of the major elements of

the automobile transportation system. These

elements are shown by the boxes lettered A

through M, The arrows indicate the principal

interactions among the elements of the system.

For simplicity, no attempt has been made to

diagram all of the relationships. Only those that

represent the major links among the social,

economic, political, and institutional parts of

the system are shown. The diagram also illustrates how stakeholders influence the automobile system and, in turn, are affected by it.

Stakeholders

The stakeholders in the automobile system

are many and diverse. In one way or another,

everyone can be considered a stakeholder with

interests in the benefits conferred by the automobile and in the costs that it imposes. Most individuals and organizations hold not one, but

several stakes which may conflict at times. For

example, there is the automobile owner and user

who might favor policies to promote fast and

uncontested driving conditions, but who might

be opposed to a planned highway affecting his

neighborhood and property values. Similarly,

there might be unanimity within the auto industry on policies to promote the use of the

automobile, but sharp division of opinion on a

standard requiring some safety device. The

parts supplier might view the standard as advantageous, while the automobile manufacturer

might see it as cutting into sales.

There are many examples where individuals,

organizations, and institutions find different

aspects of their self-interest in conflict. There

are also many instances in which stakeholders

may group together on one policy issue but realine with other stakeholders on other issues.

Because stakeholder interests are so varied and

conflicting, it is not possible to show their relationship to the automobile system in a simple

diagrammatic way. The lines in figure 1 connecting stakeholders to the automobile system

are intended only to suggest the major avenues

through which stakeholder interests are brought

to bear and through which stakeholder interests

are affected.

Policies (A)1

There are hundreds of policies that have a

direct or indirect effect on the characteristics

and use of the automobile system. For this

study, the list of present policies has been

limited to those that have a major and direct influence on automobiles and highways, on industry structure, on institutional relationships,

or on personal transportation. These policies

are cited in table 1, where they are grouped according to the five categories of issues addressed

in this study.

13
14 ● Changes in the Future Use and Characteristics of the Automobile Transportation System

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Ch. 2—Characterization of the Automobile Transportation System ● 15

Table 1 .—Major Policies Affecting the Automobile Transportation System

Title

Energy

Emergency Highway Energy Conservation Act of 1974

(PL 93-239)

Federal-Aid Highway Act Amendments of 1974 (PL 93-643)

Energy Policy and Conservation Act of 1975 (PL 94-163)

Electric and Hybrid Vehicle Research and Development Act

of 1976 (PL 94-41 3)

Environment

Department of Transportation Act of 1966 (PL 89-670)

National Environmental Policy Act of 1969 (PL 91-190)

Federal-Aid Highway Act of 1970 (PL 91-605)

Uniform Relocation Assistance and Land Acquisition Policies Act of 1970 (PL 91-646)

Clean Air Act of 1970 (PL 91-614) and 1977 Amendments

(PL 95-95)

Noise Control Act of 1972 (PL 92-754)

Safety

National Traffic and Motor Vehicle Safety Act of 1966, and

Amendments (PL 89-563)

Highway Safety Act of 1966 (PL 89-564)

Motor Vehicle Information and Cost Savings Act of 1972

(PL 92-513)

Highway Safety Act of 1973 (PL 93-87)

Mobility

Federal-Aid Highway Acts 1954 through 1976

Urban Mass Transportation Act of 1964 (PL 88-365)

Cost and Capital

Highway Revenue Act of 1956 (PL 85-823)

Motor Vehicle Information and Cost Savings Act of 1972

(PL 92-513)

Magnuson-Moss Warranty Act of 1974 (PL 93-637)

Provisions

Required States to reduce speed limit to 55 mph on all

highways

Provided for carpool demonstration projects

Extended 55-mph speed limit indefinitely

Standby authority for gasoline rationing

Mandated new car fleet average fuel economy (27,5 mpg by

1985)

Established program to develop and demonstrate electric or

hybrid vehicles

Declared a national policy to protect and preserve natural,

recreational, and historic sites from intrusion by highways

Established requirement for assessment of environmental

impacts of public works projects (including highways)

Established Council on Environmental Quality

Required development of guidelines to control adverse

economic, social, and environmental impacts of highways

Required Federal-State cooperation for Iong-range highway

planning 7

Established uniform policy for land acquisition and treatment of persons displaced by highways

Established standards for CO, HC, and NOX emissions by new

autos

Required inspection and maintenance programs in certain

urban areas

Authorized establishment of noise standards for products

distributed in interstate commerce (including automobiles)

Established National Traffic Safety Agency (later NHTSA)

Set safety performance standards for motor vehicles

Established National Highway Safety Agency (later NHTSA)

Required States to have a highway safety program to reduce

reduce death, injury, and property damage

Required use of energy-absorbing bumpers

Authorized Federal-aid highway funds for safety programs and

safety R&D

Appropriated funds for federally aided highway systems

Designated the National System of Interstate and Defense

Highways and appropriated funds therefore

Provided for use of highway funds for certain mass transit

improvements

Provided for Federal assistance in developing improved transit

facilities, equipment, and techniques

Encouraged planning and establishment of areawide mass

transit

Provided assistance to State and local agencies in financing

transit capital improvements and operations

Imposed a Federal tax of 4¢/gal on motor fuel

Established Highway Trust Fund

Established pay-as-you-build principle

Required a consumer information study to examine

susceptibility to damage, crashworthyness, and

characteristics of the repair system

Provided for diagnostic demonstration projects

Prohibited odometer tampering

Established automobile warranty requirements

Authorized FTC to make rules on unfair or deceptive warranty

practices
16 ● Changes in the Future Use and Characteristics 01 the Automobile Transportation System

Technology (B)

The basic technology of the automobile has

changed very little over the years. Although

major improvements and refinements have been

added, the internal combustion (Otto cycle)

engine remains virtually the only means of propulsion. The fuel is still almost exclusively

gasoline. Transmission, suspension, chassis,

and body designs are not fundamentally different from those of early automobiles. However, the modifications that have been made to

the basic technology have made a difference,

and the operating characteristics of the automobile have substantially improved over time.

Among the innovations that have been introduced are the electric starter, the automatic

transmission, power-assisted braking and steering, emission control, electronic regulation of

ignition and carburetion, and improved occupant safety and comfort.

The development of the automobile system

over the remainder of this century will be determined largely by technological changes that are

already under development—alternate engines,

improved drivetrains, safety devices, emission

control equipment, and vehicle downsizing.

These coming changes will be influenced more

strongly by Government policy than were those

in the past. They will place demands on the

automobile industry to improve fuel economy,

reduce emissions, and increase occupant safety.

Consumer preferences and acceptance of public

policy goals will also exert influence on automobile technology—either directly, through

mechanisms of the marketplace, or indirectly,

through the political process.

The effects of national policies on automobile

manufacturers and parts suppliers will depend,

in part, on the ability of the industry to generate

the capital needed for development of new technology along the lines dictated by policy. Capital formation, in turn, depends on consumer acceptance of the products and on the profitability

of the resulting sales mix.

Auto Stock (C)

The performance of the automobile transportation system depends on the composition of the

vehicle fleet and changes in the characteristics of

the fleet over time. (See table 2.)

Table 2.—Characteristics of the

Automobile Stock, 1976

Percent of

Volume new car

(millions) sales a

New car sales

Subcompact . . . . . . . . . .

Compact . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Small luxury . . . . . . . . . .

Intermediate . . . . . . . . . .

Standard . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Large luxury . . . . . . . . . .

Total. . . . . . . . . . . . .

2.23 22

1.92 19

0.51 5

2.83 29

2.02 20

0.61 6

10.12

Auto fleet

Size . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 97,800,000

Average age . . . . . . . . . . 6,2 years

Annual scrappage rate. . 70/0

Auto prices, operating costs, and the demand

for travel influence the level and the mix of new

car sales. Demographic factors also influence

the growth of new car sales.

The annual introduction of new cars and the

rate of retirement of old cars determine the

range and average of fuel economies, emissions,

and performance features of the auto fleet.

These characteristics, in turn, help determine

total gasoline consumption, emissions levels,

and death and injury levels.

The rate of retirement of cars is primarily a

function of age, although other factors such as

cost of operation and repair, personal income,

and changes in household composition also influence scrappage. Less than 6 percent of the

cars on the road are over 13 years old, and the

average age is slightly over 6 years. Between 6

and 10 percent of the fleet is scrapped each year.

Economics (D)

Macroeconomic conditions have a primary

and direct effect on the use and characteristics of

the auto system. The key economic factors include gross national product, disposable personal income, inflation rate, civilian labor

force, and unemployment rate. (See table 3.)

Disposable personal income and employment

are major determinants of consumer behavior.
Ch. 2—Characterization of the Automobile Transportation System ● 17

1, z

I*4.

Table 3.—Selected 1976 Economic Data

Gross national product ... ... .. $1.7 trillion

Disposable personal income. .. .$1.8 trillion

Disposable personal income

per capita. ... ... ... ... .. .$5,486

Consumer price index’. . .......170.5

Civilian labor force . ...........94.8 million

Unemployment rate . ..........7.7 percent

They influence the number and type of new

autos sold, the length of time a car is kept in use,

and the amount of travel. There is a close correlation among household income, the number

of autos owned, and the number of miles traveled. When the economy is growing steadily,

and when inflation rates are low and employment high, there is more personal income

available for the purchase and use of automobiles.

Demographics (E)

Population growth, the number and size of

households, their geographic distribution, and

the number of licensed drivers are some of the

factors that determine the size of the auto fleet

and how it is used. In addition, the sex of the

drivers also influences the amount of auto use.

In 1975, over 90 percent of males of driving age

. . . .?, * r

$ . .

Photo Crec//t Genera/ Motors Corpora//on

had licenses. About 70 percent of driving-age

females were licensed.2 Male drivers use autos

more extensively than females in all age categories; on the average, males drive about twice

as many miles per year as females. 3

Demographic factors, along with economic

conditions, are determinants of residential location and, consequently, of population distribution. The important characteristics of the cur4.

The nature and amount of auto travel is heavily influenced by land use—the pattern of residences in relation to business and recreational
18 . Changes in the Future Use and Characteristics of the Automobile Transportation System

centers. Density of development is also an important factor. Demand for auto travel tends to

be high where residential densities are low and

where residences are distant from commercial

and recreational sites. Auto travel demand is

lower, on the other hand, in areas where commercial establishments and employment are interspersed with, and in proximity to, residences.

Transportation System (F)

This portion of the system is made up of the

facilities for personal transportation by auto

and public transportation. It includes both highways and exclusive rights-of-way for public

transportation. It also includes the transportation management system, which affects the relationship of highways and transit and determines

the efficiency of their combined operation.

The location and type of highway facilities

and the number of miles in the highway system

are influenced by a variety of factors. The geographic distribution of population and, particularly, the juxtaposition and density of land

uses determine the miles of highway needed and

the feasibility of using mass transportation to

satisfy some of the travel demand.

Federal policies strongly influence the size and

location of highways by determining the

amount of funds available, the types of facilities

assisted, and the relative emphasis among

transportation modes. (See table 5.) Other

policies, such as fuel taxes and fuel-economy

standards, affect Federal revenue and hence the

funds available for highway construction, maintenance, and operation. Macroeconomic conditions also affect the amount of construction and

maintenance that can be accomplished either

with revenues from road users or with other

legislatively appropriated funds.

Table 5.— Highway and Transit Expenditures, 1976

(billions of dollars)

All

government Federal

Highways

Capital. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $14.30 $7.53’

Maintenance & other

noncapital b 

. . . . . . . . . . . . 15.48 0.36

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29.78 7.89

Transit

Capital. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . NAc 1.28d

Operating assistance . . . . . 1.65 0.43

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . — 1.71

Mobility (G)

Mobility, defined as the satisfaction of travel

demand, is the basic purpose of the automobile

transportation system and the major benefit

conferred by it. The parameters of mobility are

number of trips, trip length, number of persons

served, and the mode of transportation. Measured on any of these dimensions, the automobile

is the dominant form of personal transportation

in the United States. (See figure 2.) Each year

automobiles accumulate over 1 trillion vehicle

miles and account for over 90 percent of all

passenger miles traveled. Mass transit, the major alternative to the automobile in urban areas,

is an important substitute for some types of trips
Ch. 2—Characterization of the Automobile Transportation System ● 19

(notably the journey to work) but, in the national aggregate, accounts for under 2 percent of

passenger miles traveled. (See tables 6 and 7.)

Figure 2.—Modes of Personal Transportationa

Rail & water 1°/0

Air 5°/0

I I I I I

Passenger miles (percent)

The magnitude of the effects of the automobile cannot be measured solely in terms of

mobility, even though this is the ultimate purpose of the system. The characteristics and use

of automobiles have important consequences in

several areas. These are shown in boxes H

through M of the automobile system diagram

(figure 1) and described in the remaining sections of this chapter,

Table 6.— Passenger Car Use*

Percent distribution

Percent

Percent of travel

Purpose of travel of trips (VMT)

Work, including

commuting . . . . 36 42

Family business,

including

shopping . . . . . . 31 19

Education, civic,

or religious . . . . 9 5

Social and

recreational . . . . 23 33

Average

trip length

one-way

(miles)

10.2

5.6

4.7

13.1
20 . Changes in the Future Use and Characteristics Of the Automobile Transportation System

Table 7.—Public Transit Ridership, 1977

Linked passenger tripsa

(millions)

Rail . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,425

Trolley. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51

Motor bus. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4,247

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5,723

Average fare.., . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37.7@

Automobile= Related Industries (H)

Some indication of the importance of the

automobile system can be gained from the

employment figures for industries directly involved in motor vehicle production and use.

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

Motor vehicle and parts manufacturing—

1,013,000

Auto and parts retail dealers—1,152,000

Auto and parts wholesale dealers–394,000

Services and garages–476,000

Gasoline service stations–624,000

Construction of highways and streets—

339,000

Petroleum industries—427,000

State and local highway departments—

587,000. 4

In addition to these 5 million employees,

another estimated 400,000 people are employed

by industries that serve as suppliers to auto

manufacturers. 5

Federal policies, in the form of automobile

performance regulations, have a major effect on

the automobile industry. Development of new

technologies to satisfy these requirements bears

directly on capital needs and on employment

and profit levels in the manufacturing, auto supply, and service industries. The need for

specialized diagnostic and maintenance equipment to service cars with new emission and fuel-

‘Transportation Association of America, Transportation

Facts and Trends, Fourteenth Edition (Washington, D. C.:

Transportation Association of America, 1978), p. 23.

‘Motor Vehicle Manufacturers Association, Motor Vehicle

Facts and Figures ’78 (Detroit: MVMA, 1978), p. 68,

saving devices, for example, could affect the

concentration and size of firms in the auto service industry and add pressure on the labor

market for skilled mechanics.

Personal disposable income is directly correlated with new car sales. Population distribution, the patterns and density of land use, and

the nature and extent of the Nation’s transportation system strongly influence auto travel demand, which in turn determines the size and

composition of the auto fleet. Changes in fleet

characteristics have a wide range of effects on

auto-related industries, including the size and

mix of new car sales, market shares among auto

manufacturers, employment levels, profits, and

the level of claims in the insurance industry.

Table 8 presents some of the highlights of automobile industry economics.

Table 8.— Financial and Economic Data for the

Automobile Industrya (1975 dollars)

Average new car price by size class

Subcompact. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $ 3,600

Compact. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $ 4,200

Small luxury. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $ 5,650

Intermediate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $ 4,600

Standard. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $ 5,400

Large luxury. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $ 8,000

Gross revenue per domestic car sold . . . . . . $ 4,990

Annual domestic sales (thousands) . . . . . . . 8,610

Annual domestic sales revenue (millions) . . $42,950

Capital investment (millions). . . . . . . . . . . . . $ 3,640

Auto manufacturing employment

(domestic) b

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 948,000

Profit margin (1977) (percent)c

U.S. auto industry . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.6

All manufacturing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.5

U.S. auto industry net income (1977)

(millions). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $4,590

GMC . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $ 2,960

Ford . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $1,480

Chrysler . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $ 145

AMC . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $ 5

U.S. auto industry net income as a percent

of sales (1977) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.6

GMC . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.1

Ford . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Chrysler. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . (1.0)

AMC. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . (0.3)
Ch. 2—Characterization of the Automobile Transportation System ● 21

Energy (1)

Automobile transportation is the largest consumer of petroleum in the United States —5.2

million barrels per day, or about 30 percent of

total demand. (See figure 3.) Virtually all of the

petroleum consumed as automobile fuel is in the

form of gasoline. Historically, gasoline consumption has grown at a rate of slightly over 4

percent per year. In the years immediately preceding the 1973-74 oil embargo, the annual

growth reached nearly 5 percent. While the

growth rate has slackened somewhat since, it is

currently above 4 percent and rising. The annual consumption of petroleum by automobiles

was over 78 billion gallons in 1976.

Energy consumption is directly influenced by

automobile travel demand and by propulsion

system technology. While gasoline is now the

only significant auto fuel, diesel engines are

beginning to penetrate the passenger car fleet.

Synthetic fuels (coal liquids, shale oil, methanol, and ethanol) and electric power are potential alternatives to gasoline, but they are now

only in the developmental stage.

Figure 3.—U.S. Demand for Oil in 1976

(MMBD)

Electricity

generation

Auto 1.6 Residential -

Transportation commercial

5.2

[

300/0

Other

truck

Small 12(

truck

.9

Industrial

3.2

‘2.1
22 ● Changes in the Future Use and Characteristics of the Automobile Transportation System

Environment (J)

The effects of automobile use on air quality

have received wide public attention since the

1960’s. Automobile emissions are considered to

be a major contributor to air pollution, primarily in urban areas. Automobiles are major

sources of carbon monoxide, hydrocarbons,

and nitrogen oxides. Figure 4 shows the relative

contribution by automobiles to atmospheric

pollution.

Noise, water pollution, and soil contamination are other environmental impacts of automobiles; however, in each case, other sources

are larger contributors. The disposal of automobile wastes, notably scrap vehicles, is a problem of sizable proportion. Scrappage of automobiles accounts for about 7 percent of all commercial, residential, and municipal waste in the

United States. Since the average weight of a

vehicle is about 3,900 pounds, automobiles

Carbon monoxide

113.5

KEY:

comprise over 13 million tons of solid waste that

must be disposed of annually. Of this, 10

million tons, or about 80 percent, are salvaged

and represent an important source of recycled

iron, steel, and other metals. Figure 5 illustrates

the composition of a typical

Safety (K)

1978 model car.

The safety of the automobile system—measured in terms of fatalities, injuries, and property

damage—is a matter of profound concern. The

1977 data in table 9 show only the rough dimensions of the problem, but they serve to indicate

the high price that Americans pay for mobility.

Traffic crashes in rural areas makeup approximately 30 percent of the total but account for

70 percent of the deaths and 35 percent of the injuries. The condition of rural roads, the higher

prevailing speeds, and

Figure 4.—Sources of Air Pollutiona

Automobile b

Hydrocarbons

30.2

Totals (million tons per year)

he unavailability of

Nitrogen oxides

20.0

Other mobilec

Stationary and

miscellaneous

‘1975 Data,

‘Passenger cars only,

c

Light-duty trucks, heavy-duty trucks (gasoline and diesel), buses, motorcycles, aircratt, pipeline, marine craft, and military

vehicles
Ch. 2—Characterization of the Automobile Transportation System ● 23

Figure 5.— Materials in a Typical

1978 Model Automobile

Other

Aluminum non-metal

Cast iron

SOURCE Ward’s 1978 Automotive Yearbook, 1978

Table 9.—1977 Traffic Crash Data

Crashes a . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17,600,000

Vehicles involveda . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29,800,000

Injuries b

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4,392,000

Deaths C . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47,700

Auto occupants . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27,400

Pickup, van occupants. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5,200

Motorcycle . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4,200

Pedestrian, pedacycle. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8,600

Truck, bus, and other. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,400

Estimated costd . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $44 bill ion

rounded

This figure does not Include

emergency medical services are major factors

contributing to the disproportionate number of

rural highway deaths and injuries.

Costs (L)

The costs of the automobile are distributed

throughout the system, but they are eventually

assumed by the public, either directly as automobile users or indirectly as taxpayers. Some of

these costs have been discussed earlier—for example, highway and transit costs in connection

with the transportation system (F’), new car

costs under industry economics (H), and fuel

costs under energy (I). The discussion that follows deals only with costs that fall directly on

the consumer as an automobile owner and

operator.

From 1962 to 1973, the real dollar cost of

owning and operating an auto declined about 6

percent. Gasoline and motor oil costs in the

same period declined more rapidly than total

costs until the sharp OPEC price increase in

1973-74 brought fuel costs back to the 1962 level

in real dollars. Auto repair and maintenance

costs, constant through the mid-1960’s, have

gradually declined over the last decade by about

10 percent in real dollars. Significantly, new car

costs have been declining steadily and at a

greater rate than other auto-related costs—more

than a 30-percent decline in 15 years in real

terms. Table 10 is a summary of the costs of

automobile ownership and operation in 1976.

Table 10.—Costs of Owning and Operating

an Automobile, 1976 (cents per mile)

Type of auto

Costsa Stand- Com- Subard pact compact

Depreciation . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.9 3.8 3.2

Maintenance, accessories,

parts, and tires. . . . . . . . . 4.2 3.4 3.1

Gas and oil (excluding

taxes) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.3 2.5 1.8

Garage, parking, and tolls . 2.2 2.1 2.1

Insurance. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.7 1.6 1,5

State and Federal taxes . . . 1.6 1.2 0.9

Total costs per mile . . . . 17.9 14.6 12.6

Autonrobl/e, 1976, p 2

Social Effects (M)

The automobile system affords a myriad of

social benefits, but it also has many adverse effects on individuals and communities. Generally, these adverse effects fall into three categories:

1. Increased highway travel creates pressure

to build or expand highways, leading to

disruption of communities by property acquisition and displacement of residences,

businesses, and other activities.
24 ● Changes in the Future Use and Characteristics of the Automobile Transportation System

2. Increased traffic volumes raise noise levels

within neighborhoods and endanger

pedestrian safety.

3. Increased reliance on the automobile by

the population as a whole tends to draw

passengers away from public transportation, shrinking its market, forcing reductions in service, and contributing to increases in fares. The elderly, the handicapped, the young, the poor, and others

without cars may have their mobility reduced as a result.

One measure of community disruption by the

automobile system is the number of homes and

businesses displaced by highway construction.

Table 11 shows the annual average of highwayrelated displacements during the period

1971-75. The level has declined from the 1960’s,

when highway construction was at a peak. A

part of this decline can also be attributed to

Federal policies, notably uniform relocation

assistance legislation and the National Environmental Policy Act, which have brought increased efforts to prevent or mitigate the disruptive effects of highways.

There are some members of society who cannot share fully in the mobility afforded by automobiles. Lack of access to an auto or lack of

ability to use an auto is a particular problem for

four segments of the population—the old, the

poor, the handicapped, and the young. These

segments of the population are sometimes called

“transportation disadvantaged. ”

Table 12 contains estimates of the size of the

population groups in which lack of mobility is

most prevalent. These estimates are given separately for adults and for the young (under 17)

since many young people do not have independent travel needs. The young have been included

for two reasons: to provide a complete account

of those who lack the degree of mobility enjoyed

by the rest of society and to indicate the extent

to which children, who must rely on others for

transportation, generate automobile travel demand.

Table 11 .—Annual Highway-Related Displacements

Yearly average

Type of displacement 1971-75

Residential. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10,789

Business . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,510

Farm . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 209

Nonprofit organization . . . . 100

reports

Table 12.—Transportation Disadvantaged

Population* (millions)

1970

Adults (over 17)

Elderly (over 65, not poor,

and not handicapped). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.2

Poor (not handicapped) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.9

Handicapped . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17.1

Total adult disadvantaged . . . . . . . . . . . 37.2

Total adult population . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 135.2

Percent of adult population . . . . . . . . . . . . 27.50/o

Young (17 and under)

Handicapped. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.9

Not handicapped. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68.8

Total young . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69.7

Total population . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 204.9

Percent of total population . . . . . . . . . . . . 34.O%
.

-

+

1

, ! ,

r ---

C/?. 2—Characterization of the Automobile Transportation Systern ● 25

, , J

Chapter 3.- THE NO-POLICY-CHANGE BASELINE

Page Page

Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. .....29 19. Base Case Automobile Ownership and Use .. .38

Rationale . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30 20. Fuel Economy Standards Assumed for

Future Population Characteristics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32 the Base Case. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .......40

Population Growth. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32 21. Alternative Assumptions for Base Case

Population Distribution. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .......32 Fuel Economy Standards . . . . . . . . . . . .......41

Households . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32 22. Base Case Petroleum and Gasoline Prices. ...4l

Licensed Drivers.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34 23.Summary of Base Case Automobile

Macroeconomic Assumptions . . . . . . . . . . .......34 Energy Demand . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .......42

Civilian Labor Force. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34 24. World Petroleum Supply and Demand. ...,...46

Gross National Product. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35 25. Automobile Emission Standards for

Disposable Personal Income . . . . . . . . . .......35 the Base Case. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48

Inflation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ..35 26. Projected Base Case Automobile Emissions ..49

Technology Projections . . . . .. .. . .. .. . .. ......35 27. Projected Violations of Air Quality

Automobiles. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .......36 Standards, Base Case . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .......49

Highways . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37 28. Change in Materials Used in a

Public Transportation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .......37 Typical Automobile . .....................,53

Basic Patterns of Automobile Ownership and Use 38 29. Projected Displacements Due to Highway

Energy Projections. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .......36 Construction, Base Case. . . . . . . . . . . . .......53

Energy Policy and Assumptions. . . . . . . . . . . . ..39 30. Base Case Traffic Safety Projections . .......55

Automobile Energy Demand . . . . . . . . . . .......41 31. Assumed Highway Expenditures, Base Case. .57

Total Domestic Petroleum Demand . . . . . . . . . . . 43 32. Highway Revenue Sources, 1975............58

Domestic Fuel Supply. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44 33. Automobile Fuel Consumption and

Alternate Energy Sources . . . . . . . . . . . . .......44 Gasoline Taxes. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .......60

World Petroleum Supply and Demand . . . . . . . . . 45 34. Projected Daily Urban Travel and Congestion .60

Environmental Projections . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48 35. Base Case Transit Financing Assumptions ..,63

Air Quality Policy and Assumptions. . . . . . . . . . . 48 36. Base Case Transit Service Levels. . . . . .......63

Air Quality Projections. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48 37. Transportation Disadvantaged Population ....65

Other Environmental Projections . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51 38. Projected Annual Transit Ridership, Base Case65

Safety Projections . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54 39. Change in the Distribution of TotaI

Safety Policy and Assumptions . . . . . . . .......54 New Car Sales, Base Case. . . . . . . . . . . .......69

Projected Fatalities and Injuries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55 40. Estimated Gross Revenue From Domestic

Highway Projections . . .. . .. . .. .. .. .. . ... .....56

Assumed Highway Expenditures . . . . . . .......56 41

Assumed Highway Taxes and Revenues. ......57

Projected Highway Travel Speeds

and Congestion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ..60 42

Future Roadway Condition . . . . . . . . . . . .......62

Transit Projections . . . . . . . . ● .”...... . . . . . . . . . . 62

Assumed Federal Assistance . . . . . . . . . .......62

Projected Transit Ridership . . . . . . . . . . .......64

Car Sales, Base Case. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .......69

Added Capital Requirements for Technology

to Meet Fuel Economy Standards: Cumulative

1977-85. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .......70

Employment in Passenger Car and

Parts Manufacturing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .......71

LIST OF FIGURES

Cost and Capital Projections . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .66 FigureNo.

Automobile Manufacturing and Sales . . . . . . . ..66

Page

6. Derivation of the Base Case . . . . . . . . . .......33

Automobile Manufacturing Revenues . . . . . . . . .69 7. Annual Change in Consumer Price lndex .....36

Capital Requirements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .......70 8. Projection of Base Case Fuel Economy .. ....42

Profits . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ..70 9. U.S. Petroleum Demand . . . . . . . ....:.... ...43

Employment and Productivity. . . . . . . . . .......71 10

11

12

LIST OF TABLES

TableNo. Page 13

13. Summary of Base Case Projections. . . .......29 14

14.

15

16

17.

18

Summary of Base Case Assumptions . .......31

Size and Age of the Future Population .. .....32 15

Future Distribution of U.S. Population. .. .....34 16

Projections of Population and Licensed

Drivers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .......34 17

Summary of Macroeconomic Assumptions 18

for the Base Case. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .......35

U.S. Petroleum Supply and Demand . . .......45

Projected Base Case Emissions by Source,

1975-2000. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .......50

Estimated Population Exposed to Air

Pollution, Base Case . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ..52

Motor Vehicle Deaths, 1975 to 2000. . . . . .....56

Future Highway Expenditures Assumed for

the Base Case. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .......57

Recent Trends in Highway User Tax Receipts .59

Projected 24-Hour Average Speeds in

Urban Areas, Base Case . . . . . . . . . . . . .......61

Base Case New Car Sales Projections. .. .....67

Distribution of New Car Sales by Size-Class

Base Case . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .......68
The no-policy-change

serves as a reference for

SUMMARY

baseline, or Base Case,

evaluation of policy alternatives affecting the future automobile transportation system. The Base Case is a projection

of automobile system characteristics and use

under the assumption that current Federal Government policies and programs are continued in

substantially their present form until 2000. This

provides a baseline for comparing the effects

and impacts that could result from pursuing

alternatives to present policy.

Base Case projections of some of the more important features of automobile system characteristics and use for 1985 and 2000 are shown in

table 13. For comparison, corresponding figures

are shown for 1975 which was selected as the

base year for this study.

One of the significant projections is that,

although the number of automobiles and automobile vehicle miles traveled (VMT)l will continue to rise, fuel consumption will remain

roughly constant. To counter rising purchase

otherwise stated.

Table 13.—Summary of Base Case Projections

1975 1985 2000

Mobility

Automobiles in operation (millions) . . . . . . . . . . . .

Automobile vehicle miles traveled (trillions) . . . . .

Urban auto travel in congested conditions

(percent) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Transit vehicle miles traveled (billions). . . . . . . . . .

Transit ridership (billions). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Energy

Fleet fuel economy (miles per gallon)’ . . . . . . . . . .

Automobile fuel demand (MMBD) . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Petroleum imports (MMBD) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Environment

AutomobiIe air pollutant emissions

(millions of tons per year)

Carbon monoxide . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Hydrocarbons . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Oxides of nitrogen. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Safety

Highway fatalities (thousands)c. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Highway fatality rate (per 100 million miles). . . . . .

Cost and capital

New car sales (millions)d

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

95

1.03

10

2.0

5.6

13.6

5.0

7.4

69.3

7.9

4.0

46.0

3.4

8.6

118

1.43

14

2.3

6.5

19.4

4.8

10.0

32.6

3.5

2.7

58.4

3.1

13.1

148

1.80

24.6

4.8

8.8b

27. 3

2 . 9

2 . 9

64.0

2.8

16.4

2 9
30 . Changes in the Future Use and Characteristics of the Automobile Transportation System

costs and fuel prices, motorists are expected to

switch to smaller, more fuel-efficient cars. By

1985, 70 percent of new car purchases will be

small cars, compared to a little under 50 percent

today.

Despite the increased number of vehicles on

the road, the national aggregate of air pollutants

from automobiles will drop sharply from 1975

levels as a greater part of the fleet is equipped

with mandated emission control equipment.

Another direct result of the increase in automobiles and VMT will be growing congestion

on highways, particularly in urban areas. The

typical urban driver in 2000 will encounter

congested conditions about one-quarter of the

time, or 21/z times more often than today.

Death and injury rates

are projected to decrease

2000 as a result of

in automobile crashes

steadily from now to

improved occupant

protection and vehicle crashworthiness.

However, the absolute number of deaths and

injuries will increase. For example, highwayrelated deaths are expected to reach 64,000 per

year by 2000, compared to 46,000 in 1975.

Providing there is not a severe restriction of

the supply of petroleum or alternate fuels, automobiles will continue to be the dominant mode

of personal transportation through the year

2000. The Federal transit assistance programs

assumed for the Base Case will result in a 16-

percent increase in ridership by 1985, but the

effect on automobile VMT will be negligible.

RATIONALE

The Base Case is a projection of automobile

system characteristics and use over the next 25

years, based on the assumption that present

Federal policies and programs will continue.

The Base Case thus allows the results expected

of current policy in light of evolving demographic, economic, and social trends. It provides a quantified baseline for evaluation of

alternatives, and it highlights policy issues that

may arise through pursuit of present policies.

The Base Case has several important applications in this study:

Frame of Reference: The Base Cas e

provides a series of reference points for

comparing the effects and impacts of policy

alternatives with conditions that would

prevail in the absence of such policies.

Analytic Tool: By providing a common set

of assumptions and projections, the Base

Case helps assure that analyses of policy

options are consistent and that expected

effects are compared systematically. The

Base Case also contributes to policy definition by specifying a plausible economic and

social climate in which policies must

function.

Yardstick for Current Policies: A number

of Federal policies and programs relating to

the automobile transportation system are

now in force or are scheduled to be phased

●

in over the next few years. The Base Case

helps to define the nature and magnitude of

the changes being brought about by these

policies.

Guide to Policy Alternatives: Projections

of future conditions in the Base Case help

to identify problems that could occur and

ways to avoid or mitigate adverse impacts.

The Base Case is not a prediction of a most

probable future. There is no intent to assert that

the outcomes described in the Base Case will inevitably occur or are likely to occur. Conditions

change in unforeseen ways, and Government

policies would almost certainly not remain

static over a period as long as 25 years. Instead,

the Base Case is an analytic device that extrapolates the effects of present Government policies

in light of anticipated changes in social and

economic conditions.

Neither is the Base Case a “Do-Nothing” policy. The Federal Government already has many

policies and programs affecting the automobile

transportation system. All of these are assumed

to remain in force or to be extended according to

presently established schedules. It is for this

reason that the Base Case has also been called

the No-Policy-Change Baseline, to emphasize

that it is a continuation of those policies now

deemed appropriate for the automobile transportation system.
Ch. 3— The No-Policy-Change Baseline ● 31

The Base Case was developed from assumptions and trend extrapolations for three classes

of variables:

1. Population growth and distribution,

2. Economic conditions, and

3, Federal Government policy.

Population characteristics are important factors in the future automobile transportation

system. The number of people of various ages

and their location will determine the general demand for personal transportation (by automobile or other means) and the distribution of

this demand between urban and rural areas and

by geographic region. Macroeconomic factors

are also major determinants of automobile system characteristics and use. The economic state

of the country will have a powerful influence

both on the automobile and the highway industry in general and on the resources that individuals will have to spend for personal transportation. The policies of the Federal Government will set the regulatory climate for the

industry and will affect the cost and availability

of personal transportation. Federal Government

policy will also play a major part in determining

the direction in which automobile technology

will evolve over the remainder of this century.

These three classes of variables, combined

with descriptive models of the structure and

function of the system, serve as the basis for

projections of future automobile characteristics

and use. The demographic and economic conditions described below and their effects on automobile transportation are assumed to occur for

the Base Case and for each of the policy alternatives treated later in this report. Z Assumed

demographic and economic factors have been

held constant to allow comparison of the particular effects of policy options with the common reference of the Base Case.

Table 14.—Summary of Base Case Assumptions

(dollar amounts in constant 1975 dollars)

Assumptions 1975 1985 2000

Demographic

Population (millions). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Licensed drivers (millions). . . . . . . . . . . . .

Economic

Gross national product ($ trillion) . . . . . . .

Average incomea ($ thousand). . . . . . . . . .

World oil price (dollars per barrel) . . . . . . .

Gasoline price (cents per gallon). . . . . . . .

Policy

New car fuel economyb (mpg) . . . . . . . . . .

New car emission standards

(grams per mile)

Carbon monoxide . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Hydrocarbons . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Oxides of nitrogen . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Highway program fundinge ($ billion)

Capital expenditure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Maintenance. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Transit program funding ($ billion)

Federal assistance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

State and local contributions. . . . . . . .

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

214

130

1.52

5.03

13.00

56

—

28.0

3.0

3.1

14.3

13.9

233

151

2.22

6.72

16.50

77

27.5

3.4 ‘

0.41’

1 .Ocd

11.2

17.0

250

177

3.72

10.07

25.60

121

27.5

3.4

0.41

1.0

7.0

21.2

28.2 28.2

1.51 2.64

1.71 2.70

28.2

2.64

4.90

3.22 5.34 7.54
32 . Changes in the Future Use and Characteristics of the Automobile Transportation System

Figure 6.—Derivation of the Base Case

ASSUMPTIONS

●

Population Economics Federal

policy

4

1

k

J

1

Technology

projections ,

AUTOMOBILE SYSTEM

CHARACTERISTICS & USE

1 I ?

Vehicles Highways Industry Alternate

& services modes

4 ●

I

I I

I

EFFECTS AND IMPACTS

1

I I I I I
Ch. 3—The No-Policy-Change Baseline ● 33

FUTURE POPULATION CHARACTERISTICS

The size and distribution of the future population will have a significant influence on the

automobile transportation system. As population grows, so will the demand for personal

transportation, the number of licensed drivers,

the number of automobiles, and the benefits and

problems associated with the automobile.

Population Growth

The population growth assumptions selected

for this study are Bureau of the Census’ Series II

forecasts. The most important assumption is the

completed cohort fertility rate of 2.1 (the average number of children women are expected to

have).

Mortality is the other important factor shaping the population projection. A person born in

1930 had a life expectancy of 59.7 years. 4 I n

1975, life expectancy was 72.7. By 2050, it will

be 76.5. 5 With these assumptions, the population is projected to grow from 213.5 million in

1975 to 232.9 million in 1985, and 260.4 million

by 2000. b

Not only will the population in 2000 be about

22 percent greater than in 1975, it will also be

older. The median age in 1975 was 29 years. By

2000, it is expected to be nearly 36. As shown in

table 15, a greater proportion will be of driving

age. Those 65 and over, who are less likely to

drive, will number about 32 million, an increase

of 42 percent from 1975.

Population Distribution

The trend toward more urbanization is

assumed to continue. The percentage of the population living in urban areas will increase from

61 percent in 1975 to 68 percent in 2000. Central

city population will continue to grow in absolute terms but will decline as a percentage of

total urbanized area population as more people

live in the suburbs. The rural population will

decline in both number and percentage. ’ (See

table 16. )

Households

As defined by the Bureau of the Census, a

household is comprised of all persons who share

common living quarters. In addition to the traditional family, a person living alone or a group

of unrelated persons living together also constitutes a household. Based on the Series II projections, the number of households is expected

to grow from 71.7 million in 1975 to 87.2 million in 1985 and 109.4 million in 2000. At the

same time, household size will grow smaller,

from an average of 3.0 persons in 1975 to 2.4

persons in 2000. ”

Table 15.—Size and Age of the Future Population (millions)

1975 1975 1975

Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 213.5 232.9 260.4

15 and over. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 159.9 74.9 181.2 77.8 203.3 78.1

65 and over. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22.4 10.5 27.3 11.7 31.8 12.1

Median age. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28.8 31.5 35.5
34 ● Changes in the Future Use and Characteristics of the Automobile Transportation System

Table 16.—Future Distribution of U.S. Population (millions)

1975 1985 2000

Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent

Total population . . . . . . . . . 213.5 232.9 260.4

Urbanized area population 130.1 60.5 149.0 64.0 177.0 68.0

(Central city). . . . . . . . . . . ( 66.7) (31.2) ( 70.6) (30.3) ( 75.7) (29.0)

(Suburban) . . . . . . . . . . . . ( 63.4) (29.7) ( 78.4) (33.7) (101.3) (38.9)

Small urban area

population . . . . . . . . . . . 29.6 13.9 30.3 13.0 31.3 12.0

Rural population . . . . . . . . . 53.8 25.2 53.6 23.0 52.1 20.0

Licensed Drivers

Automobile use is closely related to the number of licensed drivers. Projections of licensed

drivers in the future population were developed

from analysis of trends in the percentage of individuals with licenses in each age-sex cohort.

Between 1975 and 2000, the percentage of male

licensed drivers is expected to remain stable at

roughly 90 percent of all males of driving age.

For women, however, the proportion of licensed

drivers in the population of driving age is expected to climb steadily from the present 71 percent to 83 percent by 2000. For the population

as a whole, the number of licensed drivers will

grow by 37 percent. (See table 17. )

Table 17.—Projections of Population

and Licensed Drivers

1975 1985 2000

Total population (millions). 214 233 260

Driving age population

(millions)

Men. ., . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77 87 97

Women. . . . . . . . . . . . . 83 94 106

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . 160 181 203

Licensed drivers (millions)

Men. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71 78 89

Women. . . . . . . . . . . . . 59 73 88

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . 130 151 177

Licensed drivers as

percentage of driving age

population

Men. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 920/o 900/0 91 %

Women. . . . . . . . . . . . . 71 77 83

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81 83 87

SOURCE Sydec/EEA, p III-69

MACROECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS

Civilian Labor Force

Two major factors affecting economic growth

are the size of the labor force and labor productivity. Currently, the civilian labor force is

growing more rapidly than the population. ’ The

percentage of working males is relatively stable,

but the percentage of women in the labor force

is increasing markedly. In 1970, 43 percent of

women aged 16 and over were in the labor

force. This proportion is expected to grow to 51

, pp. xiii-xviii.

percent by 1990. ’0 Based on these trends, the

civilian labor force of 92.6 million in 1975 is

projected to grow to 105.6 million in 1985 and

122.9 million in 2000.

11 Unemployment is assumed to decline from 8.5 percent in 1975 to 5.0

percent by 1985 and to remain at that level

through 2000.
Ch. 3— The No-Policy-Change Baseline ● 35

Growth in the productivity of the labor force

had averaged about 3 percent per year until the

early 1970’s, when it dropped below 2 percent.

Annual labor productivity growth is assumed to

return to around 3 percent for the period

1985-2000.

Gross National Product

The Base Case assumes continued economic

growth through 2000. The gross national product (GNP) is projected to rise from $1.5 trillion

in 1975 to $3.7 trillion by 2000 (in 197 5

dollars) .12 (See table 18. ) These figures represent

an annual GNP growth rate of 3.5 percent—

roughly equivalent to the average annual rate

between 1960 and 1975, The GNP growth projection assumes a labor force increase of 1.2 percent annually to 1985 and 1.0 percent thereafter,

and an assumed labor productivity growth of 3

percent.

Table 18.—Summary of Macroeconomic

Assumptions for the Base Casea

1975 1985 2000

Gross national product

(billions) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $1,516 $2,218 $3,716

GNP growth rate (percent) . 3.4 b 3.5 3.5

Disposable personal

income (biIIions) . . . . . $1,081 $1,564 $2,620

DPI growth rate (percent) . . 3.6

b

3.5 3.5

DPI/GNP. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.71 0.71 0.71

DPI/capita. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $5,025 $6,717 $10,068

Consumer price index . . . . 161.2 261.7 471. 3

CPI growth rate (percent)’ . 4.1b 5.0 4.0

Disposable Personal Income

Disposable personal income (DPI)—income

after taxes and social insurance payments—represents how much money people have for personal expenditures, including automobiles and

travel. Based on an analysis of historical data, it

is assumed that the ratio of DPI to GNP will be

0.71 for the period 1975-2000. This value is consistent with the recent trend. Using this ratio, it

is projected that DPI will grow from $1.08 trillion in 1975 to $2.62 trillion in 2000. DPI per

capita will double in constant dollars—from

$5,000 to $10,000 during this period. ’3

Inflation

There is great uncertainty in long-run projection of prices because of the unpredictable effects of inflation. In the past 10 years there have

been large fluctuations in the Consumer Price

Index (CPI). For example, inflation reached 11

percent in 1974 but dropped to about 6 percent

per year by 1977. Recently, however, the CPI

has begun to rise again. (See figure 7.)

Since the main concern in this study is with

long-term trends, no attempt has been made to

forecast the magnitude and timing of short-term

variations. For the Base Case, it is assumed that

inflation—as a long-term average—will decline

to about 5 percent per year by 1985 and then to

4 percent per year by 2000. Under these assumptions, the CPI would rise from the 1975 value of

161 to 262 in 1985 and 471 in 2000. However,

since DPI will be growing more rapidly than the

CPI, the net effect will be that consumers will

have about twice as much to spend (in constant

dollars) in 2000 as they do today.

TECHNOLOGY PROJECTIONS
36 ● Changes in the Future Use and Characteristics of the Automobile Transportation System

Figure 7.—Annual Change in Consumer Price Index

12

10

8

6

4

2

0

.

Projection

1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Automobiles

Weight Reduction and Materials Substitution

It is assumed that domestic manufacturers

will continue their current downsizing program,

which is expected to be completed by 1981.

Downsizing and a shift of consumer preference

to smaller cars will lead to a reduction in

average automobile weight of about 1,000

pounds. The basic elements of downsizing are

materials substitution to reduce weight and

significant body restyling to shed weight while

maintaining interior and trunk room. The use of

plastics and aluminum will increase, while the

use of steel and cast iron will be reduced. Lighter

cars will also permit the use of smaller engines

and other components.

Fuel Economy

It is expected that the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) goals for fuel economy—

27.5 mpg’4 for new cars in 1985 and thereafter—

will be attained. 15 As a result, fuel consumption

for the automobile fleet as a whole is projected

to average 19.4 mpg in 1985 and 24.6 mpg by

2000. For comparison, the fleetwide average for

1975 is estimated at 13.5 mpg,
Automobile Emissions

It is assumed for the Base Case that automobile manufacturers will be able to meet the

emission standards specified in the 1977 Clean

Air Act Amendments. A waiver on the nitrogen

oxides (NOX

) standard (from 1.0 gram per mile

to 1.5 grams per mile) would be granted for

diesels from 1981 to 1983, but thereafter, it is

assumed that diesels would meet the 1.0-gramper-mile standard.

Safety

New automobiles will meet the Federal Motor

Vehicle Safety Standards. It is assumed that

passive restraints will be phased into all new

cars over the period 1982-84 at a cost of about

$200 per car.

Transmission and Drivetrain

The most significant changes expected in this

area are:

Lockup torque converters for automatic

transmissions,

More manual transmissions,

More front-wheel-drive vehicles, and

Improved lubrication.

Engines

The Base Case assumes that no new engines

will achieve extensive commercialization before

2000, but that substantial modifications will be

made to what is currently available. The sparkignition engine is assumed to predominate, but

the percentage of diesels will rise to 10 percent

of new car sales in 1985 and 25 percent by 2000.

It is assumed that the diesel will have a more difficult time meeting the NOX standard and will be

granted a waiver to 1.5 grams per mile for 1981

through 1983. After 1984, the diesel is assumed

to meet the 1.0-gram-per-mile standard and any

particulate standards that may be imposed.

Some of the more significant improvements

expected in spark-ignition engines are:

Stratified charge (single or auxiliary

chambers),

Turbocharging,

Wider use of fuel injection,

Microprocessors to control air-fuel mixture

more closely, and

Greater use of aluminum.

Ch. 3— The No-Policy-Change Baseline ● 37

The Base Case assumes that other types of

engines, even if proven successful in research,

will not achieve substantial market penetration

by 2000.

Fuels

Petroleum is assumed to be the main source of

automotive fuel through 2000. Production of

alternative fuels 16 will be limited but might

reach 2.75 MMBD by 2000 under the most favorable circumstances. The use of methanol or

gasoline-methanol blends is uncertain and has

been given low probability for the Base Case.

Electric vehicles will not constitute a significant

part of the passenger car fleet, but may have increased use as delivery vehicles after 1985.

Highways

The basic elements of highway construction

and design are not assumed to change significantly by 2000. Some improvements in pavement durability and skid resistance are expected

to occur.

Modifications in the technology of highway

operation may occur, particularly in urban

areas. The technology is available for wider implementation of Transportation Systems Management (TSM) techniques such as high-occupancy vehicle lanes and ramp metering. Signing

and traffic control signal systems are also expected to be improved by 2000.

Public Transportation

Buses will remain the backbone of urban public transportation. Minor improvements in comfort and ride quality are expected. There will be

improvements in accessibility for the handicapped and elderly, since a major part of the urban bus fleet is expected to be equipped for their

use by 1990.

There will be some shift in emphasis from

heavy rail to light rail for new urban rail transit

systems. Only a very small number of cities will
38 . Changes in the Future Use and Characteristics of the Automobile Transportation System

start building new systems before 2000. However, the 8 to 10 systems that now exist or are

under construction will be completed, expanded, or modernized. Technological advances beyond the San Francisco and Washington, D. C., systems are not foreseen.

Automated Guideway Transit (AGT) will see

only limited application. It is assumed that four

AGT systems will be operating by 1985 under

the Urban Mass Transportation Administration

(UMTA) Downtown People Mover Demonstration Program. After 1985, a few others may be

put in operation, but they are not assumed to

represent a significant substitute for other

modes of personal transportation.

Intercity buses, which now serve more communities than any other public mode of transportation, are expected to remain the principal

alternative to the automobile for trips between

cities or between rural areas and cities. No major changes in bus technology are assumed for

the Base Case.

BASIC PATTERNS OF AUTOMOBILE OWNERSHIP AND USE

From the assumptions set forth so far, it is

possible to project some of the basic features of

automobile ownership and use. These features

form a pattern that can serve as a point of

departure for examining the expected effects and

impacts of current policies under base case conditions. (See table 19. )

Two of the more significant aspects of the

future new car market expected in the Base Case

will be a long-term trend of increasing sales and

a marked shift to smaller cars. The number of

autos in the fleet will continue to rise and at a

rate slightly higher than population growth.

The number of vehicles per licensed driver will

increase from the present 0.73 to 0.84 by 2000.

Federally mandated fuel economy standards

will probably have more influence on the type

of automobile in the fleet than any other current

policy. To meet the tighter fuel economy standards, manufacturers will offer smaller, lighter

vehicles and more diesels.

Table 19.—Base Case Automobile Ownership and Use

1975 1985 2000

Annual new car sales (millions) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.6 13.1 16.4

Percent of small carsa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46 66 66

Percent of diesels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . — 10 25

Total automobiles in operation (millions). . . . . . . . 95 118 148

Automobiles per licensed driver . . . . .

Automobile vehicle miles traveled (trill

Automobile vehicle miles traveled

per licensed driver. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

EPA fuel economy standards (mpg) . .

Auto fuel consumption (MMBD) . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . 0.73 0.78 0.84

ens) . . . . . 1.03 1.43 1.80

. . . . . . . . . 7,900 9,500 10,200

. . . . . . . . . None 27.5 27.5

. . . . . . . . . 5.0 4.8 4.8

ENERGY PROJECTIONS

Historically, the growth of the automobile by 2000. The Base Case assumes that the supply

transportation system has been aided by an of petroleum will be reduced and that other

abundant and inexpensive supply of petroleum, sources of energy will have to be found. The

a condition that is expected to change markedly price and availability of energy—from petro-
leum or alternate sources—will be powerful influences on future automobile characteristics

and use.

No attempt is made in the Base Case, or elsewhere in this study, to deal with the broad national problems of energy supply and demand.

These include the prospects for sustaining or increasing domestic and foreign petroleum production, conservation of petroleum or substitution of alternate sources by nontransportation

users, and reallocation of supply across and

within domestic economic sectors. These issues

are fundamental to national energy policy and

will clearly affect the future of the automobile,

but they lie beyond the scope of this assessment.

The Base Case concentrates on projecting

energy consumption by the automobile system

and the energy supply needed to satisfy this demand. Broader projections of supply and demand for the economy as a whole cannot be ignored, since they are inextricably bound to the

automobile system. However, they are incorporated in the Base Case only to the extent

necessary to define the context in which the

automobile system will have to operate.

Ch. 3— The No-Policy-Change Baseline ● 39

Energy Policy and Assumptions

The Base Case projections of energy consumption by the automobile system rest on the

following assumptions:

The automobile fleet will continue to depend on petroleum as its primary fuel to the

year 2000.

The diesel engine will be the only alternative to the spark-ignition engine to obtain a significant market share through

2000.

The number of electric vehicles in use by

2000 will be insignificant in terms of petroleum conservation unless there is a breakthrough in battery technology. No such

breakthrough is assumed for the Base Case.

Any transition to alternate fuels will not

come about as a result of Federal Government subsidy of the production and use of

such fuels.

The new car fuel economy standard will be

27.5 mpg for the 1978- model year and

thereafter until 2000.

4
40 ● Changes in the Future Use and Characteristics of the Automobile Transportation System

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

Domestic manufacturers will meet these

standards through vehicle downsizing,

materials substitution, and other energy efficiency improvements. 17

Smaller cars will make up an increasingly

greater share of the fleet.

There will be no change in the degree of enforcement of the 55-mph speed limit.

The Federal Government will continue to

control the price of gasoline,

Gasoline taxes will rise so as to keep revenues at their present level in constant

dollars.

No graduated excise (gas guzzler) taxes on

automobiles will be imposed by the Federal

Government.

There will be no oil embargo or abrupt interruption of supply.

Fuel Economy Standards

The most significant Federal policy affecting

energy consumption by the automobile system

is the 1975 Energy Policy and Conservation Act

(EPCA), which sets standards for new car fuel

economy between the 1978 and 1985 model

years. (See table 20. ) Compliance with these

standards is determined for each manufacturer

separately on the basis of average (salesweighted) fuel economy of the full line of

passenger vehicles sold by that manufacturer

during the model year. Beginning in 1980, captive imports (such as Ford Fiesta and Dodge

Colt) cannot be included in the manufacturer’s

average. Therefore, domestically produced automobiles will have to make significant improvements in fuel economy by that time. It is

also important to note that the values listed in

table 20 are based on a test cycle of combined

street and highway driving used by EPA to

measure compliance. Estimates of the fuel

economy attained under actual driving conditions run 10 to 20 percent Iower.lg

Table 20.— Fuel Economy Standards Assumed

for the Base Case

Sales-weighted new car

Model year fleet average, mpg

1978 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

1979 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

1980 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

1981 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

1982 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

1983 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

1984 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

1985 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

1990 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

2000 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

1 8

a

1 9

a

20a

2 2

b

2 4

b

2 6

b

2 7

b

27.5a

27.5/30.O C

27.5/35.O C

EPCA now sets fuel economy standards only

to 1985, but there is the clear possibility that

standards might be raised in the period

1985-2000 as an extension of present policy. To

assess the effects of fuel economy standards until 2000, an alternative set of assumptions was

incorporated into the Base Case. In Case A, the

standard is maintained at 27.5 mpg from 1985 to

2000. In Case B, the standard is raised to 30 mpg

in 1990 and 35 mpg in 2000. It is assumed that

higher fuel economy would be achieved, in part,

by a greater use of diesel engines. In Case B, the

penetration of the new car market by diesels

reaches 40 percent by 2000. Table 21 summarizes the different assumptions for Case A

and Case B.

Petroleum Prices

Petroleum demand by the automobile system

will be partly determined by price. Based upon

an examination of several recent projections of

worldwide supply and demand, it is assumed

that the price of a barrel of petroleum will rise

from the current level of $13 to $16.50 by 1985

and to $25.60 by 2000 (all prices in 1975

dollars). ” This is equivalent to an annual in-
Ch. 3— The No-Policy-Change Baseline ● 41

Table 21 .—Alternative Assumptions for Base Case Fuel Economy Standards

Base Case A Base Case B

New car fuel economy standards. . . . . . . . .“. . . . . . . . . . 1985 27.5 mpg 27.5 mpg

1990 27.5 mpg 30.0 mpg

2000 27.5 mpg 35.0 mpg

Diesel share of new car sales. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1985 10 percent 15 percent

2000 25 percent 40 percent

Table 22 .—Base Case Petroleum and Gasoline Prices

(1975 dollars)

1975 1985 2000

Case A Case B

World oil price ($/barrel) . . . $13.ooa $16.50 $25.60 $25.60

Gasoline price (c/gallon)

Without tax . . . . . . . . . . . 44.5¢ 65.3¢b

109.4¢b109.4¢b

State and Federal taxes . 11 .7¢ 12.4¢ 12.4¢ 14.1¢

Pump price. . . . . . . . . . . . 56.2¢ 77.7¢ 121 .8¢ 123.5¢

crease of 3 percent per year in constant dollars.

The price of gasoline (excluding taxes) is also

assumed to rise a t 3 percent per year. 20 Gasoline

taxes (State and Federal ) are assumed to rise at a

rate that would keep revenues at the 1975 level

in constant-dollar terms. The resulting change

in the price of gasoline a t the pump is a rise from

$0.56 per gallon in 1975 to $1.21 per gallon by

2000. (See table 22. )

Automobile Energy Demand

During the 1960’s, fleet fuel economy declined

steadily. This trend was reversed by the mid1970’s as a result of domestic manufacturer’s efforts to improve fuel economy and the growing

popularity of smaller cars, particularly fuelefficient imports. The estimates prepared for the

Base Case, shown in figure 8, assume that

manufacturers will meet the 1985 fuel economy

standard of 27.5 mpg.

Fuel consumption projections for the Base

Case are shown in table 23. Two measures of

fuel economy are shown—the EPA certification

values used to determine compliance with

EPCA standards and estimates of mpg under actual driving conditions.

Under the Case A assumptions, automobile

fuel consumption in 1985 would be 5 percent

lower than in 1976. Thereafter, consumption

would stay close to the 1985 level, as further

fuel efficiency gains would be counterbalanced

by rising VMT. However, under Case B, auto

petroleum consumption could fall an additional

12 percent by 2000. 21 Whereas diesel fuel consumption by automobiles is negligible today, it

would rise to 18 percent of automobile fuel used

by 2000 in Case A and 29 percent in Case B. Between 1975 and 2000, fuel economy for the fleet

as a whole under actual driving conditions is

projected to increase 82 percent in Case A and

107 percent in Case B. Since fleet size and VMT

are identical for the two cases, the difference is

attributable solely to higher fuel-economy

standards and the increased use of diesels

assumed for Case B.

11-117 I , ) - ‘i I - 1
42 . Changes in the Future Use and Characteristics of the Automobile Transportation System

35

30

25

20

15

10

Figure 8.—Projection of Base Case Fuel Economy

.

.

I

I

-- -0 9 ----

I

I

0 ,

0

I

y

19.4

b 16.9 ~o

.

15.3

- Assumptions Case A Case B

-

13.7 EPA Standard (MPG) 1985 27.5 27.5

1 2000 27.5 35.0

I Diesel penetration 1985 10.0 15.0

(Percent of new cars) 2000 25.0 40.0

.

I b ●

1 1 1 I I I 1 1 I

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

‘Motorcycle travel Included in fuel economy 1960-64

SOURCES Trend data, Motor Vehicle Manufacturers Association, Motor Vehicle Facts and Figures ’77, p 62.

Projections, OTA and Sydec EEA, pp. III-101-109

Table 23.—Summary of Base Case Automobile Energy Demand

2000 1975 1985’

Case A Case B

Automobiles in operation (millions) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 95 118 148 148

Automobile VMT (trillions). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.03 1.43 1.80 1.80

Diesel penetration (percent of new car market). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . (b) 10 25 40

New car fuel economy (mpg)

EPA standardc . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . None 27.5 27.5 35.0

Attained—EPA certification value . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15.6 28.5 29.4 35.0

Attained—actual driving . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14.0 23.2 25.0 29.8

Fleet fuel economy (mpg)

Attained—EPA certification value . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15.1 24.0 28.5 32.9

Attained—actual driving . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13.6 19.4 24.6 28.0

Annual fleet fuel consumption rate (billions of gallons)

Gasoline. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 76.0 70.6 60.2 45.7

Diesel . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . (b) 3.3 13.1 18.7

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 76.0 73,9 73.3 64.4

Fleet fuel consumption (MMBD). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.0 4.8 4.8 4.2

Percent of domestic consumption . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30.6 23.9 21.4 19.3
Total Domestic Petroleum Demand

The projected consumption of petroleum by

the automobile system must be set in the context

of the projected unconstrained demand for fuel

by the country as a whole in 1985 and 2000.

Estimates of unconstrained domestic petroleum

demand22 are presented in figure 9.

Ch. 3— The No-Policy-Change Baseline ● 43

The assumptions made in reaching these estimates are:

● The fuel economy of small

main unregulated. 23

● There will be no significant

in the fuel efficiency of large

trucks will reimprovements

trucks.

Figure 9.— U.S. Petroleum Demand

20

15

10

5

22.4 MMBD

Electrical 0.6

20.1 MMBD Residential &

commercial

Electrical 31

1.5

17.5 MMBD Residential &

4 commercial

Electrical 2.7

1 6

.

Industrial

6.1

Residential &

commercial

3.5 Industrial

5.6

Industrial Rail, air,

3.2 water

3.9

Rail, air

water

Rail, air. 2.9

water ,

2.1

,

Truck Truck

1,9 Truck 3.9

2.6

Auto

5.2 Auto

4.8

Auto

4.8

1976 1985 2000
44 . Changes in the Future Use and Characteristics of the Automobile Transportation System

Petroleum consumption by other transportation modes (rail, air, and water) will continue to rise with expansion in the economy

and population growth.

The use of oil by industry will grow with

the economy and the inability to expand

natural gas supplies. Regulation, such as in

the National Energy Plan, which could significantly lower the growth in industrial

use has not been assumed for these estimates.

Demand in the residential and commercial

sector will fall slightly by 1985 because of

greater use of electricity in new homes and

the installation of energy-saving measures

by homeowners and businesses. The benefits of these trends will be offset after 1985

by population growth, and consumption in

this sector will begin to rise again.

There will be an increase in the use of coal

Domestic Fuel Supply

The supply of conventional petroleum from

domestic sources is assumed to rise slightly

through 1985 with the introduction of production from the Alaskan North Slope. North Slope

oil production is expected to reach a maximum

of 2 MMBD and hold steady at that rate until

2000. This would raise the total domestic supply

to 10.1 MMBD in 1985. Beyond 1985, the supply from the lower 48 States (including the

Outer Continental Shelf) is expected to taper

off, declining to a production of 5 MMBD by

2000. Thus, the total domestic supply in 2000

would be only 7 MMBD, or about 30 percent of

the total unconstrained demand. To meet the

domestic demand of 22.4 MMBD in 2000, it

would be necessary to find 15.4 MMBD of fuel,

either as petroleum imports, alternative fuels or

equivalent electrical energy from nonpetroleum

sources. (See figure 10. )

for generation of electricity.

Alternate Energy Sources

There are a number of resources that can be

used to produce motor fuels similar to conventional gasoline or diesel fuel. These fall into four

general categories.

1. Synthetic liquid fuels (synfuels),

2. Alcohol fuels,

3. Electricity, and

4. Fuel cells using hydrogen, hydrazine, or

blended fuels.

Synthetic fuels and alcohol or alcohol blends

are assumed to be the most likely alternate

automobile energy sources by 2000. No significant production of synthetic fuels is foreseen

before 1985. By 2000, however, technical and

economic factors point to production of liquid

fuels from oil shale and coal. Extensive commercialization of alcohol fuel (ethanol or methanol)

is inhibited at present by economic factors.

However, the disparity between alcohol and

conventional petroleum prices is expected to be

reduced by the mid- to late-1990’s. 24
Ch. 3— The No-Po/;cy-Change Base//ne ● 4 5

Figure IO.— U.S. Petroleum Supply and Demand

(MMBD)

25

20

15

10

5

0

22.4

20.1

17.5

10.1

1 I I I 1

Demand for

petroleum Imports

and alternate

Alaskan

Lower 48

1976 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

The Electric and Hybrid Vehicle Act calls for

the demonstration of 200 vehicles by 1979 and

7,500 by 1984. ” The major obstacle to the use

of electric power for automobiles is the development of improved batteries that can perform

better than the present lead-acid battery, which

is considered unacceptable in terms of performance, range, and weight, No major breakthrough in battery technology is assumed for

the Base Case, and it is expected that the market

penetration of electric vehicles (while it might

reach as much as 10,000 vehicles per year by

2000) will cause negligible changes in national

petroleum consumption.

Fuel

tion is

be an

2000.

cell technology for automotive applicastill in its infancy and is not expected to

important alternative to fossil fuels by

World Petroleum Supply and Demand

The Base Case projections of U.S. fuel consumption indicate that the combined unconstrained demand of all sectors will exceed

domestic supply by as much as 10 MMBD in

1985 and over 15 MMBD by 2000. There is

grave doubt on technical, political, and economic grounds that the level of petroleum imports needed to meet this shortfall could be, or

should be, reached or sustained.

In 1976, the combined demand of the World
46 ● Changes in the Future Use and Characteristics of the Automobile Transportation System 

Outside Communist Area (WOCA) nations, including the United States, was 49.4 MMBD. Of

this, OPEC supplied 30.7 MMBD, and the

United States supplied 10.1 MMBD. (See table

24. ) In order to meet the demand of 84 MMBD

projected for WOCA in 2000, OPEC production

would have to increase to 62 MMBD, about

double current production.26 The ability of the

OPEC nations to double the rate of petroleum

production over the next two decades is technically doubtful. OPEC (principally Middle

Eastern) reserves are generally estimated to be

large enough to fulfill such a world demand, but

it is not certain that it is physically possible to

pump oil from the fields at a rate of 62 MMBD.

There is also doubt that present production,

transportation, and refining facilities could be

expanded as rapidly as necessary. Analysis performed in connection with this study indicates

an optimistic value of 56 MMBD and a pessimistic value of 34 MMBD. A middle estimate of 45

MMBD was thought to be realistic in terms of

portraying background world petroleum supply

for the Base Case. However, this figure is an

assumption more than an estimate and could

still be too high on purely technical grounds .27

Even if it is assumed that the technical problems of production could be surmounted, there

remains doubt about the economic feasibility of

an OPEC production rate in the range of 50 to

60 MMBD. The OPEC nations may conclude

that their petroleum is more valuable” to them in

the ground as a future resource than it is on the

immediate market. OPEC already has difficulty

in making efficient use of present petroleum

revenues. For economic reasons, the OPEC nations—severally or collectively—may choose to

husband production to keep pace with their

ability to utilize capital, especially since deferred production may lead to greater future

profits.

The Base Case assumptions about world

petroleum supply are also extremely sensitive to

international political factors. The United States

now uses more energy per capita than any other

major country,28 and the rest of the world is

Table 24.—World Petroleum Supply and Demand

(MMBD)

2000

1976 1985

Case A Case B

Domestic demand

Automobile . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.2

Other transportation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.0

Other sectors. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.3

Total domestic. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17.5

Other WOCAa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31.7

Total WOCA demand . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49.4

Domestic supply

Lower 48 and OCSb 

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.1

Alaska. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . —

Total domestic. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.1

OPEC . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30.7

Other WOCA . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.7

Total WOCA supply. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47.5

4.8

5.5

9.8

20.1

41.0

61.1

8.1

2.0

10.1

38.0

13.0

61.1

4.8

7.8

9.8

22.4

62.0

84.4

5.0

2.0

7.0’

45.0

15.0

67.0

4.2

7.8

9.8

21.8

62.0

83.8

5.0

2.0

7.0’

45.0

15.0

67.0
Ch. 3— The No-Policy-Change Baseline ● 47

conscious of this extravagance. The future inability of the United States to conserve energy

(especially petroleum) could lead to serious

political disagreement with other WOCA nations on how to share the available level of

OPEC petroleum, whatever it may be. Within

the OPEC nations, there are additional political

pressures that might militate against satisfying

WOCA (or U. S.) demand.

From the viewpoint of the U.S. economy, the

present level of imports has already damaged

the U.S. position on balance of payments. Increasing the percentage of imports to between

55 and 70 percent by 2000 (depending upon

whether 2.75 MMBD of alternative fuels can be

produced) may prove to be a burden that the

United States cannot sustain for either economic

or political reasons.

Thus, the fundamental conclusion to be

drawn from the Base Case projections of energy

demand for the United States as a whole and for

the automobile system in particular is that the

Nation faces the possibility of a severe shortage

of petroleum before 2000. The automobile will

still be a major user of petroleum at that time,

and a determination will have to be made as to

how much further to reduce automobile fuel

consumption.

Pho!o Credit Environmrental Protection Agencv
48 ● Changes in the Future Use and Characteristics of the Automobile Transportation System

ENVIRONMENTAL PROJECTIONS

Environmental protection has been a focal

point of Federal Government policy since the

1960’s. An important, and often controversial,

feature of this policy has been the effort to

reduce or mitigate the effects of widespread and

intensive automobile use. Heaviest emphasis

has been placed on control of automobile emissions and environmental impacts of highways,

but other effects–noise, disposal of solid and

liquid wastes, and water contamination—

deserve attention.

Air Quality Policy and Assumptions

The Clean Air Act of 1970 (Public Law

91-614) and its amendments provide for control

of six forms of atmospheric pollutants—carbon

monoxide, nitrogen dioxide, photochemical oxidants, hydrocarbons, suspended particulate

matter, and sulfur dioxide. Of these, all but the

last two are emitted by automobiles in significant quantities. The current standards for automobiles, established in the 1977 amendments to

the Clean Air Act, apply to emissions by new

cars through the 1981 model year. The standards specify the permissible levels of carbon

monoxide (CO), hydrocarbons (HC), and nitrogen oxides (NOX

) that an automobile may emit

per mile over its useful life (defined as 50,000

miles). The standards and the schedule for their

attainment are shown in table 25.

Table 25.—Automobile Emission Standards

for the Base Case

Standard (grams/mile)

Model year CO HC NOx

1975. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 1.5 3.1

1976 -79 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 1.5 2.0

1980. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 0.41 2.0

1981-83 (spark-ignition). . . . 3.4 0.41 1.0

1981-83 (diesels) . . . . . . . . . 3.4 0.41 1.5

1984-2000 (all vehicles). . . . 3.4 0.41 1.0

For the Base Case, it is assumed that the 1981

standards remain in force until 2000. During the

period 1981-83, when automobile NOX standards will be 1.0 gram per mile, it is assumed that

diesels are granted a waiver to 1.5 grams per

mile to allow time for improvement in diesel

emission control technology. It is further assumed that by 1983, these improvements will

have been effected and that thereafter all automobiles (whether powered by a diesel or a

spark-ignition engine) will be able to meet the

1.0 gram-per-mile standard.

An important factor in estimating future

automobile emissions is the rate at which emission control devices deteriorate in use. The current certification procedure is based on an estimated average level of emissions over the useful

life of the vehicle, which is defined as 5 years or

50,000 miles. For this study, the deterioration

rates assumed are the January 1978 estimates

issued by EPA. These estimates cover not only

the 50,000-mile certification period, but the full

life of the car.29 The emission rates assumed for

other mobile sources and stationary sources are

also those currently estimated by EPA.30

The Clean Air Act Amendments provide for

the application of an inspection and maintenance program for vehicles in use in areas where

National Ambient Air Quality Standards for

carbon monoxide or oxidants are not expected

to be attained by 1982. 31 To date, few such programs have been instituted under the Act, and

the Base Case assumes that none will be mandated by the Federal Government by 2000.

32

Air Quality Projections

Base Case projections of automobile emissions are shown in table 26. CO, HC, and NOX

emissions are expected to decline from current

levels by 1985, and further still by 2000. The

greatest reductions are in CO and HC emissions

nology Division,
Ch. 3— The No-Policy-Change Baseline ● 49

Table 26.—Projected Base Case Automobile Emissions

1975 1985 2000

Million tons/ Million tons/ Percent Million tons/ Percent

Pollutant year year of 1975 year of 1975

Carbon monoxide. . . . . . 69.3 32.6 47 27.3 39

Hydrocarbons’ . . . . . . . . 7.9 3.5 44 2.9 37

Nitrogen oxides . . . . . . . 4.0 2.7 68 2.9 73

Particulates b . . . . . . . . . . 0.38 0.08 21 0.25 66

Lead C . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.15 0.04 27 0.03 20

(over 60 percent for each by 2000). NOX emis -

sions are expected to decline by 1985 but to rise

again by 2000 as a result of the growing use of

diesels.

Projections of particulate emissions are sensitive to the proportion of diesels in the fleet.

Particulate emissions would drop by three

quarters between 1975 and 1985, but would

climb back as diesel penetration increases.

It should be noted that all types of vehicle

emissions reach the lowest levels in the mid1990’s. Assuming a 13-year vehicle turnover,

almost all of the vehicles on the road at that

time will be of a vintage designed to meet the

currently programmed standards. As travel increases, the reductions due to lower vehicle

emissions are offset by increased VMT.

A projection of aggregate emissions from all

sources was prepared using EPA data on emissions from nonautomotive mobile and stationary sources. (See figure 11. ) Automobiles are expected to account for only minor fractions of

CO, HC, and NOX emissions from all sources

by 2000. The improvement due to control of

automobile emissions will be offset by a much

slower decrease (and in some cases an increase)

in emissions from other sources. As a result, air

quality is not anticipated to reach the levels

specified by National Ambient Air Quality

Standards in many areas of the country by 1985

and 2000.

Table 27 indicates the number of Air Quality

Control Regions (AQCRs) where violations of

air quality standards are projected for 1985 and

2000. Violations of the 8-hour CO standard (10

mg/ m

3

) in 2000 are expected to fall to about

one-third the 1975 level. Extreme violations

(twice as high as the permissible level) show the

most dramatic decrease, falling from 25 in 1975

to 2 in 2000. Violations of the oxidant standard

(160 μg/ m

3 in a l-hour period), although expected to show some decline, will continue to be

high. It is projected that the oxidant standard

Table 27.— Projected Violations of Air Quality Standards, Base Case

Pollutant 1975 1985 2000

Carbon monoxide

Number of AQCRsa exceeding standardb . . . 43 34 22

Number of AQCRs exceeding 2X standard. . 25 3 2

Total violations. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68 37 24

Oxidants

Number of AQCRs exceeding standardc

. . . . 49 46 41

Number of AQCRs exceeding 2X standard. . 20 11 8

Number of AQCRs exceeding 3X standard. . 8 2 3

Number of AQCRs exceeding 4X standard. . 7 3 2

Total violations. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 84 62 54
50 • Changes in the Future Use and Characteristics of the Automobile Transportation System

2000

c o 1985

1975

Figure 11 .—Projected Base Case Emissions by Source, 1975-2000

I

21% (55% of 1975 total)

1

(84% of 1975 total)

I

10 20 30 40 50 60 70

Million tons per year

80 90 100 110 120

2000

1985

1975

(72% of 1975 total)

I

70% (82% of 1975 total)

1

2000

1985

1975

10 20

Million tons per year

30 40

I 73 ”/0

I

I

10 20 30 40

Key

Auto

Non-automobile

Stationary & miscellaneous

SOURCE: Sydec EEA, p. Ill-119
Ch. 3— The No-Policy-Change Baseline * 51

will be violated in about 25 percent of the

AQCRs in 1985 and in slightly over 20 percent

of the AQCRs in 2000. However, as shown in

figure 11, the principal contributors to the high

levels of oxidants will be stationary sources

(about 70 percent). Of the remainder, automobiles will account for about one-third, or

roughly 10 percent of the total.

Figure 12 shows projected cumulative population exposure to CO and oxidants in 1985 and

2000. The number of people exposed to CO concentrations above the standard is expected to

decline sharply by 1985, and further still by

2000. The projection for oxidants, however,

shows only marginal improvement between

1975 and 2000. Although the number of AQCRs

in violation of the oxidant standard will decrease, the population in the areas that remain

in violation will increase. The net result is that

by 2000, the number of people exposed to hazardous concentrations of oxidants is expected to

be about the same as today. Obviously, not

every person in a given AQCR will be exposed

to exactly the same level of pollutants and for

the same duration. The projections shown in

figure 12 are only approximations, but they do

indicate the magnitude of the air pollution problem that is expected to persist.

Other Environmental Projections

Base Case projections of environmental impacts were limited to air quality, the most

significant environmental concern in the future

development of the automobile system. No attempt was made to develop estimates of other

types of environmental impacts. However, the

Base Case does include general projections of

other environmental trends that are expected to

result from continuation of present policies.

Noise

Efforts to control motor vehicle noise have

followed two approaches—control of the source

(the vehicle itself) and highway planning and

design standards for noise abatement, EPA has

established noise standards for medium and

heavy trucks, which call for the noise level to be

reduced to 75 dBA (decibels absolute) by 1983.

EPA has announced its intent to issue regulations for motorcycle and bus noise during 1978.

EPA is now evaluating noise test data for

automobiles, which may become candidates for

regulation by the 1980’s. The Federal Highway

Administration (FHWA) has established design

noise levels for highways, and assessment of

noise impacts is a regular part of the planning

and approval process for federally assisted

highway projects.

In the Base Case, noise conditions are not expected to change substantially in the short term.

However, in the long term and for specific communities with severe automobile congestion,

motor vehicle noise could reach levels that require Federal or local government intervention,

either to control noise sources or to restrict the

conditions of motor vehicle use. The quieting of

medium and heavy trucks under EPA regulation

will reduce traffic noise levels in many areas,

particularly where commercial truck use is concentrated and on arterial routes carrying significant truck traffic. Restricting bus engine noise

will reduce sound levels in central business districts and in residential neighborhoods along

bus routes. However, these reductions will be

partially offset by the increased volume of truck

and bus use forecast under Base Case conditions.

It appears that automobile noise will not

become so severe that stringent controls will

have to be imposed. For the automobile traffic

volumes projected in the Base Case, automobile

noise is not expected to rise significantly above

present levels or to become a general environmental problem. Continuing attention to noise

impacts in highway planning and to noise abatement measures in highway design will combine

to improve noise conditions in many areas in

the future.

Solid Waste

The problem of disposing of solid wastes

from automobiles (including scrap vehicles and

commonly replaced parts) varies with the size of

the fleet and the weight and composition of the

vehicles. In the Base Case, the automobile fleet

is projected to increase approximately 50 percent by the year 2000. Assuming that the scrappage rate remains about as it is now, the number

of vehicles to be salvaged or otherwise disposed

of will reach 11 million per year by the end of
52 . Changes in the Future Use and Characteristics of the Automobile Transportation System

Figure 12.—Estimated Population Exposed to Air Pollution,

140

120

100

80

60

40

20

Carbon monoxide

14

12

10

8

6

4

2

i !

I I I 1 I I I I

10-12 12-14 14-16 16-18 18-20 20-22 22-24 2 4 +

Milligrams per cubic meter

I

9

I

:

I

I

I

I

! f

I o

: : 1975

1

I

I

:

o I

i i I00- -

I I I I 1 I I

160- 240- 320- 4oo- 480- 560- 640- 720- 800+

240 320 400 480 560 640 720 800

Micrograms per cubic meter

SOURCE: Sycfec EEA, p 111-120,
Ch. 3— The No-Policy-Change Baseline ● 53

the century. However, because of the downsizing trend, the total weight of scrapped vehicles

will increase by only 20 to 30 percent.

An important part of the downsizing program

is the substitution of lightweight alloys, aluminum, and plastics for iron and steel. Table 28 illustrates the material composition of present

and future automobiles, By 1990, the ferrous

metal component is expected to decrease; aluminum, plastic, and nonmetallic components are

expected to increase. Difficulty in the recovery

or disposal of these nonferrous components

may tend to increase the problem of how to handle solid wastes from the automobile in an environmentally acceptable manner.

Table 28.—Change in Materials Used in

a Typical Automobile

Percent

Material 1975 1990

Steel. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61 54

Cast iron . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 8

Aluminum . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 12

Other metal . . . . . . . . . . . 4 3

Plastics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 9

Other nonmetal. . . . . . . . 12 14

ogy Corporation

The diesel engine is heavier than the conventional spark-ignition engine. Although some

weight reduction would be possible in diesel

automobiles, the engine weight is expected to

keep the diesel auto heavier than a conventional

auto. There is expected to be little substitution

for steel and cast iron in the diesel engine, and

processes for recovering these metals are expected to remain in use.33

Two other components may pose special

problems—the catalyst materials in catalytic

converters, and batteries. Problems with the latter could become much more significant if electric vehicles begin to be used in significant

numbers.

these impacts vary principally as a function of

local conditions, no national projections of

water quality have been attempted for the Base

Case.

Water pollution from automobiles or highway runoff has not been the subject of major

control efforts, In most areas, discharges from

industrial facilities and sanitary sewage systems

pose much greater water pollution problems

than automobiles and highways. However, as

these major sources come under stricter control,

attention may shift to highway runoff and

automobile liquid wastes—both of which will

be increasing as a result of more highway

mileage, more vehicles, and more VMT.

The composition of water pollutants from the

automobile transportation system is not expected to change greatly in the next 25 years.

However, there are two possible exceptions.

First, there could be a change in the type and

amount of certain pollutants due to the increasing number of diesel vehicles on the roads. Second, the increasing use of electrically powered

vehicles may create problems due to spillage or

disposal of battery acids. At this time, only

limited information is available on the nature

and magnitude of the problems of treating and

disposing of these liquid wastes.

Highways and the Community

One of the impacts of the highway program is

the disruption caused by the displacement of

homes and businesses. To indicate the amount

of community disruption, estimates were made

of the displacements of residences, businesses,

farms, and nonprofit organizations. (See table

29. ) The methodology relating these displaceTable 29.— Projected Displacements Due to

Highway Construction, Base Case

Average annual

displacements

Water Quality Actual Projected

Both highway construction and use cause 1971-75 1985 2000

Residential units. ., . . . . . . 10,800 5,500 4,300

water quality impacts. So, too, does the dis- Businesses . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,500 1,800 1,600

posal of liquid wastes from automobiles (spilled Farms . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 200 200 160

fuels, Lubricants, coolants, battery acid). Since Nonprofit organizations. . . 100 80 70

SOURCE Sydec EEA p Ill 191
54 ● Changes in the Future Use and Characteristics of the Automobile Transportation System

ments to Federal highway expenditures took constructed, and displacements are expected to

into account both the cyclical nature of these decline on an average basis. The rate of residenstatistics and projected long-term averages. As tial units displaced yearly will decline to about

the rate of capital spending decreases in real 40 percent of today’s rate by 2000. Other indollars, fewer miles of new highways will be dicators will also decline, but not as much.

SAFETY PROJECTIONS

Safety Policy and Assumptions

The safety of the automobile system of the

future will depend upon changes in the design of

automobiles, in the design of the highway system, and in the performance of drivers, as well

as on changes in the amount and distribution of

driving exposure (VMT). Of the large number

of possible Federal policies that would bring

about such changes, either alone or in combination, the most significant new policy included in

the Base Case is the assumed introduction of

passive occupant restraints in automobiles.

Passive restraints are assumed to be introduced in new cars according to the schedule

recommended by the Secretary of Transportation:

● All large cars sold in 1982 will be equipped

with passive restraints.

Photo Credit U S Department of Transportation
Ch. 3— The No-Policy-Change Baseline ● 55

●

●

All intermediate cars sold in 1983 will have

passive restraints.

All cars sold in 1984 and after will have

passive restrain ts.34

Estimates of the cost of the air cushion

restraint system or its equivalent vary widely.

The Department of Transportation forecasts a

cost of $112 per vehicle for production in quantity. Ford and General Motors estimates are

$193 and $235, respectively. ” For the Base

Case, it was assumed that air bags would add

$200 to the price of a new car.

The existing Federal Motor Vehicle Safety

Standards that have been incorporated in current new car designs are assumed to remain in

effect in the future. These standards have been

adopted over a period of several years and include requirements for specific safety -related

equipment and performance specifications for

vehicle design elements. The changes being

brought about by these regulations are assumed

to affect most of the auto fleet by 1985. The Base

Case also assumes that other Federal automobile

and highway safety programs will continue, but

at current levels of funding and effectiveness.

These include:

• Alcohol and drug use countermeasures,

• Improved driver skills and awareness,

● Enforcement of the 55-mph speed limit,

• Roadside hazard and grade-crossing elimination,

• Improved highway design and control systems,

• Improved emergency medical services,

● Improved crashworthiness, and

• Automobile safety inspections.

Projected Fatalities and Injuries

The most important factor affecting crash

rates between now and 2000 will be the growth

in VMT. Generally speaking, fatalities and injuries will increase in direct relation to the

number of vehicles on the road and the amount

of travel. Other contributing factors will be the

increase in urban congestion and the growing

proportion of small cars in the fleet. Two factors could have a countervailing effect. A

greater proportion of travel is expected to occur

on the Interstate System, which is designed for a

high level of safety. The introduction of passive

restraints in all new passenger cars after 1984

will help reduce deaths and lessen the severity of

injury.

These factors were taken into account in developing the Base Case projections of deaths

and injuries which are presented in table 30.

These values fall within the range of estimates

obtained in other recent studies of future highway and automobile safety .36

From table 30, it can be seen that the number

of crashes increases proportionately with VMT.

The number of deaths and injuries in 2000 are

expected to be about 40 percent greater than in

1975. However, the rate of growth will be only

about half that of VMT. The growth in the number of fatalities is illustrated in figure 13.

Table 30. —Base Case Traffic Safety Projections

VMT (trillions)a. . . . . . . . . . .

Traffic crashes (millions)b 

.

Total injuries (millions). . . .

Debilitating injuries

(millions)c. . . . . . . . . . . .

Fatalities (thousands). . . . .

Fatality rate per 100 million

VMT. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

1975

1.33

16.5

4.0

3.4

1985

1.84

22.9

5.0

2.2

57

3.1

2000

2.32–-

28.8

5.5

2.5

64

2.8
56 ● Changes in the Future Use and Characteristics of the Automobile Transportation System

70,000

60,000

50,000

40,000

30,000

Figure 13.—Motor Vehicle Deaths, 1975 to 2000

20,000

10,000

1 I I I

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

SOURCE: OTA projection using Base Case VMT adjusted for total vehicle travel

The fatality rate per 100 million miles of trav- passive occupant restraint systems beginning in

el is expected to decline from 3.4 to 3.1 between 1982. By 2000, virtually all cars on the road will

now and 1985 and to 2.8 by 2000. The major be equipped with such devices.

contributing factor will be the introduction of

HIGHWAY PROJECTIONS

Assumed Highway Expenditures ●

Since 1960, total highway expenditures by all

levels of government have been relatively stable

in constant dollars. However, the distribution ●

of these expenditures between capital improvements and noncapital expenses has been shifting. Capital expenditures have declined steadily

to approximately half of the total. (See figure ●

14. )

For the Base Case, it is assumed that the trend

will continue and that noncapital items, especially maintenance, will constitute a growing ●

share of highway expenditures by Federal,

State, and local governments. Specifically, the

Base Case assumptions on highway expendi- .

tures are as follows:

Ž Total highway spending by all levels of

government will remain constant in real

dollars from 1975 to 2000.

Capital expenditures, as a proportion of

total expenditures, will continue to drop by

1 percent per year from 50 percent in 1975

to 25 percent in 2000.

Maintenance and other noncapital items

will continue to increase 1 percent per year

as a proportion of total highway costs.

The Interstate System will be completed by

1990, using about $38 billion of the cumulative $257 billion (1975 dollars) capital expenditures for the period 1976-2000.

The Highway Trust Fund and other financing mechanisms will continue in their present form.

To qualify for Federal assistance, urban

area plans will have to include provisions

for Transportation System Management

(TSM), but no special funding category will

be created for this purpose.
Ch. 3— The No-Policy-Change Baseline ● 57

●

●

●

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

Figure 14.— Future Highway Expenditures Assumed for the Base Case

1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990

< Expenditures by Federal, State, and local governments

SOURCE Sydec EEA, III-33

Federal matching shares in all categorical

grant programs will not change.

There will be no new sources of funding for

transit within the highway program.

Technically, there is no Federal funding

now available to States for maintenance.

However, some of the Federal assistance

classified as capital is authorized for resurfacing, rehabilitation, and restoration of

roads and bridges. Federal aid for these

“3-R” activities is assumed to continues’

Table 31 is a summary of the highway expenditures assumed for the Base Case.

Assumed Highway Taxes and Revenues

The primary source of funds for Federal and

State highway programs has been the gasoline

tax. In 1976, $12.6 billion was collected from

Table 31 .—Assumed Highway

Base Case

1995 2000

Expenditures,

Expenditures

Item (billions, 1975 dollars)

1975 1985 2000

Capital outlay. . . . . . . . . . . . 14.3 11.2 7.0

Maintenance . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.1 8.7 10.8

Other (administration,

police, debt). . . . . . . . . . . 6.8 8.3 10,4

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28.2 28.2 28.2

SOURCE 1975 data, Motor Vehicle Manufacturers Association, Mofor Veh/c/e

Facts and F(gures ’77, p 89

this source by all levels of government. Other

sources include tolls, parking fees, property

taxes, and general fund appropriations. Table

32 summarizes the sources of revenue for highway purposes in 1975.

Approximately two-thirds of all highway

revenues in 1975 came from direct user charges.

However, fuel tax revenues, which make up a

large share of such direct charges, have been

.j 1-1,7, ( ) . ; - -,
58 ● Changes in the Future Use and Characteristics of the Automobile Transportation System

declining slightly in real terms since 1970. (See

figure 15. ) While the amount of driving (and

hence fuel tax revenues) has begun to increase

again since the dip caused by the 1973-74 oil embargo, it is expected that automobile gasoline

consumption will level off in the 1980’s because

of mandated fuel economy improvements. (Under Case B assumptions on fuel economy, automobile fuel consumption would actuall y

Table 32.—Highway Revenue Sources, 1975

(millions)

Receipts Amount Percent -

Highway user taxes

Federal trust fund revenues $ 5,699 19.9

State and local . . . . . . . . . . . 11,542 40.3

Tolls. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,263 4.4

Parking fees . . . . . . . . . . . . . 120 0.4

Subtotal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $18,624 65.0

decline. ) Other taxes and fees

Property taxes and

To support a constant level of highway ex- assessments . . . . . . . . . . 1,662 5.8

4,077 14.2

Miscellaneous taxes and fees 408 1.4 on gasoline and diesel fuel would be increased as

needed to maintain revenues at their present Subtotal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6,147 21.5

level. The assumed fuel consumption and taxes Other incomea 

. . . . . . . . . . . 3,877 13.5

.

are listed in table 33. Other sources are assumed Total receipts . . . . . . . . . . $28,648 100.0

to provide the same proportion of revenues as in

1975.

Figures ’77, pp 85-89
U)

/

/

/

/

/

/

/

\

\

/

/

/ I I

\ 1\I

\ I \ .
60 ● Changes in the Future Use and Characteristics of the Automobile Transportation System

Table 33.—Automobile Fuel Consumption and Gasoline Taxes

2000 1975 1985 Case A Case B

Annual fuel consumption

(billion gallons). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 76-0 73.3 73.9 64.4

Percent of 1976 consumption. . . . . . . . . . . . . 100 96.4 97.2 84.7

Gasoline tax necessary to hold receipts at

1975 level (1975 cents/gallon). . . . . . . . . . . 11.7 12.0 12.1 13.8

Projected Highway Travel Speeds

and Congestion

The amount of travel, highway speeds, and

the level of congestion are indicators of how the

highway system serves the needs of motorists.

Under Base Case assumptions, total annual

vehicle miles traveled by automobiles is projected to increase from 1.03 trillion to 1.43

trillion in 1985 and 1.80 trillion in 2000. The

average annual rate of growth in automobile

VMT over the 25-year period is 2.3 percent per

year— considerably lower than the 3.8-percent

annual rate during 1960-75. The amount of

automobile travel per capita also would continue to increase, but at a rate much lower than

the 1960-75 trend.

Between 1975 and 2000, VMT on rural roads

are expected to increase by 60 percent. Because

these roads are now used well below their

capacity, it is anticipated that they can accommodate increased demand without affecting

travel conditions. Since the projected rural

travel growth is expected to be greatest on the

higher class roads (for example, a 115-percent

increase is forecast for rural interstates), average

rural traffic speeds will remain virtually unchanged

In urban areas, where there is already considerable congestion in peak periods, congestion

will worsen under Base Case assumptions since

road construction is not expected to keep pace

with traffic growth. Three main effects are anticipated:

●

●

●

Peak periods will increase in duration.

A growing proportion of automobile travel

will occur under congested conditions—lo

percent in 1975, 14 percent in 1985, and 24

percent in 2000. (See table 34. )

Average daily speeds will drop on all

classes of urban roads, with urban freeway

travel in 2000 about 30 percent slower than

today. (See figure 16. )

Table 34.—Projected Daily Urban Travel and Congestion

1975 1985 2000

Daily Percent Daily Percent Daily Percent

auto occurring auto occurring auto occurring

VMT under congested VMT under congested VMT under congested

(millions) conditions a

(millions) conditions (millions) conditions

Interstate. . . . . . . . . . . . . 288 10 447 18 643 34

Other freeways

and expressways . . . . 170 11 262 18 382 30

Other principal

arterials . . . . . . . . . . . . 465 16 606 21 796 29

Minor arterials. . . . . . . . . 331 8 431 10 564 22

Collectors . . . . . . . . . . . . 150 5 196 7 259 15

Local . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 230 N.A. 285 N.A. 355 N.A.

Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,634 10 2,227 14 2,999 24
52

1975

Figure

50

1985

16.

Ch. 3— The No-Policy-Change Baseline ● 61

Photo Credit U S Department of Transpor!afjon

—Projected 24-Hour Average Speeds in Urban Areas, Base Case

35

2000

(Miles per hour)

50

47

36

1975 1985 2000

Interstate highways Other freeways and expressways

30 29 28

1975 1985 2000

Minor arterials

28

1975

27 26

1985 2000

Collectors

33

? 31

29

1975 1985 2000

Other principal arterials

34 33 l — 30

1975 1985 2000

All roads

SOURCE Sydec EEA, p III-79
62 . Changes in the Future Use and Characteristics of the Automobile Transportation System

Future Roadway Condition

For the Base Case, it is assumed that noncapital highway expenditures, in proportion to

total highway expenditures, will increase 1 percent per year. Assuming that highway maintenance expenses retain their current share of noncapital spending, total maintenance spending by

all levels of government would increase from

$7.0 billion in 1975 to $10.5 billion in 200 0

(1975 dollars). This increase does not necessarily mean that the Nation’s roads will be in better

condition. In considering the impact of these expenditures, the following factors must be taken

into

●

●

●

account:

As the highway system continues to expand, there will be more roads to maintain.

Because VMT are expected to grow faster

than the highway system, roads will require more maintenance.

Highway maintenance costs have been inmaintenance costs per lane mile.

• Some of the increasing maintenance requirement will be classified as minor reconstruction and will be eligible for Federal

aid.

Quantitative estimates of the future condition

of highways and streets have not been attempted for the Base Case. However, given the

projected travel demand and the assumed funding for construction and maintenance, it is expected that the condition of roadways will deteriorate considerably over the coming 25 years.

The assumed highway programs for maintenance and capital improvements do not include

any appropriations above current levels for

bridge repair. At present, there are about

105,000 bridges needing rehabilitation or replacement, at an estimated cost of $23 billion.

The 1977 fiscal year Federal funding for this

purpose was $176 million per year, drawn from

Highway Trust Fund monies. The need to imcreasing faster than the Consumer Price Index. Although some automation in interstate highway maintenance is expected,

there will still be a continuing increase in

prove the condition of the Nation’s highway

bridges may diminish the amount of Federal and

State money available for other forms of road

maintenance and repair between now and 2000.

TRANSIT PROJECTIONS

Assumed Federal Assistance

Section 3 of the Urban Mass Transportation

Act of 1964 authorizes UMTA to make grants or

loans to assist States and local governments in

financing the acquisition, construction, reconstruction, and improvement of mass transportation facilities. The appropriations for this program, which began at $60 million in 1965 ,

reached $175 million by 1970. 

38 Currently, the

1978 Surface Transportation Act authorizes

nearly $1.7 billion. In addition, $400 million are

made available to localities that choose to substitute public transit projects for interstate highway segments .39

The assumed future Federal program of capi-

‘“U.S. Department of Transportation, Urban Mass Transportation Administration, Urbut~ Mass Trumsportut~o)~ Act of 1964 arltf

Relafetf LMILIS (Washington, D. C,: U.S. Government Printing Office, 197b), p. 9, footnote 28,

‘“when a State takes advantage ot this provision, the highway

mileage may be redesignated to another State. The Federal share of

the transit project is then appropriated from general revenues. The

tal assistance for transit is based on the following considerations:

●

●

●

There is great uncertainty in future appropriations for this program because

Government agencies are budgeted for 1

year at a time and Federal fiscal planning

rarely looks as far as 5 years ahead.

UMTA and DOT support for the capital

program is strong, although there has been

some question recently about the effectiveness of rail transit.

The 1978 Surface Transportation Act created a single program for surface transportation and authorized approximately $3.2

billion for FY 1979. Appropriations under

amount so appropriated may not exceed the amount which would

have been spent on the highway segment, nor may it exceed 80

percent of the cost of the substituted transit project. See U.S. Congress, Congressional Budget Office, Urba)~ Mass Tramportat]on:

Optiom for FeAeral Assistat]ce, p. 54, and U 5 Code, vol. 23, sec.

103(e)(4).
Ch. 3— The No-Policy-Change Baseline ● 63

this Act are programmed

$3.7 billion by FY 1982,

to rise to about

The cost of new buses is increasing, partly

due to Federal regulations requiring provisions for the elderly and handicapped.

These regulations will also affect costs of

rail vehicles and stations.

There are increasing pressures to expand

transit systems to conserve energy and

reduce air pollution. However, there is

some question whether new rail systems

will result in overall energy savings .40

UMTA has made formal commitments or

commitments in principle to at least six

heavy or light rail systems. ”

UMTA has begun a demonstration program for Downtown People Movers.

Although the current budget is only $220

million, funding for additional systems

may be approved if the first four test installations prove successful.

The cost of bus and rail transit systems is

greater than local or State governments can

afford on their own. UMTA regards these

systems as one of the keys to improving the

quality of life in urbanized areas.42

Table 35.—Base Case Transit Financing

Assumptions

(millions, 1975 dollars)

1975 1985

Federal capital fundsa. . . . . $1,210 $1,710

Local matching shareb 

. . . . 300 430

Operating revenue 2,000 1,420

Operating cost. . . . . . . . . . . 3,710 4,620

Operating deficit. . . . . . . . . 1,710 3,200

Federal operating

assistance . . . . . . . . . . . 300 930

Local share of deficit . . . . . 1,410 2,270

Total Federal aidc . . . . . . . . 1,510 2,640

Total local burdend . . . . . . . 1,710 2,700

2000

$1,710

430

1,420

6,820

5,400

930

4,470

2,640

4,900

In view of these factors, it is assumed for the

Base Case that the Federal Government will

continue to increase capital assistance for public

transit by 10 percent a year in current dollars

until 1985, This will result in a 1985 capital

assistance program of $1.7 billion (1975 dollars), compared with $1.2 billion in 1975. Between 1985 and 2000, it has been assumed Federal capital assistance for transit will remain at

$1.7 billion per year. Assumptions for Federal

assistance to public transit are listed in table 35.

The assumed level of Federal assistance would

allow the transit fleet to grow by about 46 percent between 1975 and 2000. Fixed guideway

miles would increase by 54 percent. (See table

36. )

Table 36. —Base Case Transit Service Levels

1975 1985 2000

Fixed guideway miles. . . 560 650 860

Rail cars, . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10,800 11,800 15,700

Buses. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51,500 60,200 75,400

Transit vehicle miles

(millions)

Bus . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,540 1,800 2,260

Rail . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 450 520 690

Total ., . . . . . . . . . . . 1,990 2,320 2,950

In addition to capital assistance, Federal aid is

also provided for transit system operation under

section 5 of the Urban Mass Transportation

Act—the so-called “Formula Grants Program. ”

Funds are allocated to urban areas with populations over 50,000 by a formula weighted according to population and density. These funds

may be used either for capital expenditures or

for defraying transit operating costs. To date,

94 percent of the grants have been used for

operating assistance, and cover about 20 to 25

percent of the annual national transit operating

deficit .43

Through 1985, the Federal formula grants

percent a year in current dollars and then to remain constant until 2000. However, operating

costs will continue to increase because of the

service expansion resulting from the capital pro-
64 ● Changes in the Future Use and Characteristics of the Automobile Transportation System

gram and because of inflation .44 As shown in

table 35, the annual operating deficit would

grow from $1.7 billion in 1975 to $3.2 billion in

1985 and $5.4 billion in 2000. The assumed $930

million in Federal operating assistance would

cover only 17 percent of the deficit by 2000.

Continuance of transit operations would be a

major burden on State and local governments.

Their contributions to cover operating deficits

would triple over the next 25 years—rising from

$1.4 billion in 1975 to nearly $2.3 billion in 1985

and $4.5 billion in 2000. In contrast, local

capital expenditures, which are assumed to

follow Federal capital aid at a 20:80 matching

ratio, would rise only 40 percent—from $0.3

billion in 1975 to $0.43 billion annually between

1985 and 2000. The total annual subsidy required of State and local governments in 2000

would be $4.9 billion.

Projected Transit

The projections of

on three factors:

Ridership

transit ridership are based

1. Changes in fares,

2. Changes in service levels, and

3. Changes in personal income.

For a number of years, transit fares rose

gradually in constant-dollar terms. However,

Government support for transit in the early

1970’s generally stabilized fares. Between now

and 1985, average transit fares are assumed to

remain at their current-dollar levels (a decrease

from 33 cents in 1975 to 20 cents in 1985 in

constant-dollar terms). Between 1985 and 2000,

average fares are assumed to remain at 20 cents

(in 1975 dollars). The effect would be a 40-percent reduction in real fares, which, by itself,

would lead to a 16-percent increase in ridership.

As shown in table 36, transit vehicle miles are

assumed to increase by 17 percent from 1975 to

1985 and an additional 30 percent by 2000. The

effect of this, by itself, would increase transit

ridership by 6 percent between 1975 and 1985

and 10 percent more by 2000.

Disposable personal income per capita is

assumed to double between 1975 and 2000.

Thus, individuals will have more money to

spend for automobile transportation and will be

able to afford more easily the higher costs of using an automobile as compared to using transit.

Additionally, it is expected that the public will

attach greater importance to travel time differences than to cost differences between automobiles and transit. The result of increased personal income, by itself, would cause a 15-percent decline in transit travel by the year 2000.

From the combined effects of lower fares, increased service, and higher disposable income,

transit ridership is expected to grow from 5.6

billion passengers in 1975 to 6.5 billion passengers in 1985, an increase of 16 percent. Ridership would remain at the 1985 level through

2000. This transit rider increase is expected to

have a negligible effect on miles of automobile

travel. Despite the increase in ridership, real

transit revenues are projected to decline 29 percent in the 1985-2000 period due to the significantly lower transit fares. (See table 35. )

Part of the rationale for Federal involvement

in public transportation is concern for the special mobility problems of those referred to as

“transit dependent” or “transportation disadvantaged. ” Four groups, recognized as having a

high degree of dependence on public transportation or poor access to automobiles, are the old,

the physically handicapped, the poor, and the

young. Estimates of the present and future size

of these groups are given in table 37.

In each of the first three groups, many of the

individuals are in fact quite able to manage their

personal travel, either by walking, auto, or public transit. For many of the poor, the high costs

of auto ownership preclude this mode as the

prime means of travel. In 1974, 84 percent of all

households owned a vehicle. 45 In comparison,

automobile ownership in households with annual incomes under $3,000 was 46 percent. In

households earning between $3,000 and $5,000

per year, auto ownership was 64 percent. ”

The youngest of the young are parent-dependent, and most would not be allowed to

travel far from home without adult supervision.

However, those who are over 10 and capable of
Ch. 3— The No-Policy-Change Baseline . 65

unsupervised travel find that, without public

transit, most metropolitan area activities are inaccessible. Travel by the young who are driven

by their parents involves costly double round

trips, with associated increases in energy consumption, environmental effects, and inconvenience to the driver.

The elderly and handicapped will benefit less

from improvements in conventional transit but

will continue to receive limited service from

various special programs provided for their

needs. Since the funding for such programs is

assumed to remain constant while the number

of elderly will be growing, these special services

will meet a diminishing share of their transportation needs.

Base Case transit ridership projections, including those for the transportation disadvantaged, are shown in table 38.

The preceding estimates are for conventional

public transit, which consists of buses, heavy

Table 37.—Transportation Disadvantaged

Population (millions)

1970 1985 2000

Adult disacdvantaged

(over 77)

Elderly (over 65) not poor

and not handicapped . . . . 10.2 13.4 15.7

Poor( not handicapped) . . . . 9.9 11.6 13.0

Handicapped. . . . . . . . . . . . . 17.1 17.1 17.2

Total adult disadvantaged 37.2 43.6 46.9

Total adult population . . . 135.2 170.6 191.4

Percent of adult

population. . . . . . . . . . . . . 27.5% 25.6% 24.5%

Young population

(17 and under)

Handicapped. . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.9 0.9 1.0

Not handicapped . . . . . . . . . 68.8 61.4 68.0

Total young . . . . . . . . . . . . 69.7 62.3 69.0

Total population . . . . . . . . 204.9 232.9 260.4

Percent of total population . 34.00/. 26.7% 26.5%

SOURCE Adapted from Sydec EEA p Ill 42

Table 38.— Projected Annual Transit Ridership, Base Case

(millions)

1970 1985 2000

Percent of Percent of Percent of

Rides total rides Rides total rides Rides total rides

Conventional transit

Elderly and handicapped

(not poor) . . . . . . . . . . . . . 440 7 520 8 560 9

Poor (over 17, not elderly,

not handicapped) ... , . . 820 14 1,040 16 1,170 18

Total younga. . . . . . . . . . . 1,390 23 1,360 21 1,52 0 23

All transportation

disadvantaged. . . . . . . . . 2,650 44 2,920 45 3,250 50

Other riders . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,280 55 3,560 55 3,230 50

Total conventional

riders hip. . . . . . . . . 5,930b

6,480 6,480

Services for elderly and

handicapped

Conventional transit. . . . . . 440 91 520 93 560 93

Special services . . . . . . . . . 40 9 40 7 40 7

Total service . . . . . . . . . . 480 560 600
66 Ž Changes in the Future Use and Characteristics of the Automobile Transportation System

rail, and light rail. Two other forms of transit,

Automated Guideway Transit and paratransit,

were considered in the Base Case. It was concluded that neither would have a substantial effect on automobile use or on transit service in

the 1975-2000 period.

Paratransit refers to types of public transportation that do not operate on fixed routes or

schedules, and that bridge the gap between the

services provided by the private automobile and

those of conventional public transit. Paratransit

includes taxis, jitneys, dial-a-ride, vanpools,

and other shared-ride systems. With the exception of shared-ride systems that are privately

organized, most paratransit has a higher cost

per ride than conventional transit and requires a

heavy subsidy to survive. The Base Case assumes no special Federal funding of paratransit

service. Funding of any expansion of paratransit

service that might occur under Base Case conditions is assumed to be part of the overall Federal

transit assistance described earlier. The aggregate effects of paratransit on automobile and

public transportation are anticipated to be

minor for the Base Case.

COST AND CAPITAL PROJECTIONS

Automobile Manufacturing and Sales

Sales of new cars are extremely sensitive to

the business cycle, to changes in travel demand,

and—as observed in 1974—to the availability of

gasoline. For the Base Case, no attempt was

made to forecast annual fluctuations in sales.

Base Case projections were limited to estimating

long-term trends in new car sales and in the size

of the automobile fleet.

Although new car prices are expected to increase slightly in real terms under Base Case

conditions, the impact on sales will be offset by

the generally positive trend in the economy as a

whole and by relative stability in the combined

costs of ownership and operation. As a result,

new car sales are projected to increase from 10.1

million in 1976 to 13.1 million in 1985.47 T h e

average annual increase in the rate of sales during this period would be 2.9 percent (compared

was 2.1 percent in the past decade). After 1985,

when the growth in population, licensed

drivers, and VMT would be somewhat slower,

sales are expected to increase at an annual rate

of 1.7 percent —resulting in 16.4 million new car

sales in 2000. (See figure 17. )

One of the most important developments in

automobile technology in the near future—

brought about by the influence of the EPCA fuel

economy standards—is the expected increase in

the number of passenger cars and light trucks

equipped with diesel engines. In 1978, it is expected that about 1 percent of the new cars sold

will be diesels. The degree of market penetration

by diesels in the 1985-2000 period will depend

on a number of factors:

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

Public acceptance of the diesel as a substitute for the spark-ignition engine,

The ability of diesels to maintain their current fuel economy advantage (about 25 percent) over the spark-ignition engine and

other propulsion systems,

Fuel economy standards beyond 1985,

The ability of diesels to meet NOX emission

standards and the willingness of the

Government to grant a waiver until the

necessary technology can be developed to

control NOX from diesels,

The need to control the high level of presently unregulated diesel particulate emissions,

Public tolerance of odor and smoke from

diesel exhaust, and

The operating cost,

trainability of diesels

tion and use.

reliability, and mainin large-scale producAlternative sets of assumptions were made

for the Base Case, as summarized earlier in table

21. For the higher fuel economy standard of

Case B to be met, a higher penetration of diesels
Ch. 3—The No-Policy-Change Baseline ● 67

16

14

12

10

Figure 17.—Base Case New Car Sales Projections

(Domestic and total sales)

16.4

.

8

6

I

4

r I

Historic I Projection

2 4

I

*

I

I I 1 1 I 1 1 I I

SOURCES

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

would have to come about—is percent of new

car sales in 1985 and 40 percent-in 2000. Also,

the waiver provision for the NOX emission

standard would be applied to diesels for the

period 1981-83 to encourage their development.

The difference in fuel consumption in 2000 between Cases A and B iy 12 to 13 percent.

The penetration of imports” is also important

in assessing impacts on domestic auto-related

industries. Between 1966 and 1977, imports rose

from 7.3 percent to 18.6 percent of domestic

sales. ” For the Base Case, it is assumed that imports will be about 18 percent of domestic sales

from 1978 to 2000.

Another important trend is the expected shift

in the composition of the auto fleet by size and

class. As shown in figure 18 and table 39, small

cars (subcompacts, compacts, and small luxury)

are estimated to rise significantly as a proportion of the fleet—growing from 46 percent in

1976 to 69 percent in 1985. It was not deemed

realistic to project any further change in the

size-class distribution between 1985 and 2000,

Therefore, the 1985 new car market shares were

assumed to remain constant to 2000.

For the Base Case, the general projection is

that the size of the automobile fleet will continue

its steady growth through 2000. The total num-
68 ● Changes in the Future Use and Characteristics of the Automobile Transportation System

30

25

20

15

10

5

Figure 18.—Distribution of New Car Sales by Size-Class

Base Case

\

1

\

Intermediate

\ ---- - ---- 0 --- - -- 0-0-90.0,000. -

0 -

.

1976 1980 1985 1990 1995

SOURCE: Sydec/EEA, Supplementary Report.
Ch. 3— The No-Policy-Change Baseline ● 69

Table 39.—Change in the Distribution of Total New Car Sales, Base Case

Percentage Volume (thousands)

Percent

1976 1985a1976 1985 change

Subcompact . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22 30 2,225 3,940 + 77.1

Compact. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 30 1,921 3,940 + 105.1

Small luxury. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 9 506 1,196 + 136.4

Intermediate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29 16 2,831 2,111 – 25.4

Standard . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20 7 2,022 936 – 53.7

Large luxury. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 7 606 936 + 54.4

Totals b 

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10,110 13,059 + 29.2

ber of autos in operation is expected to increase

from 95 million in 1975 to 118 million in 1985

and 148 million in 2000. As a consequence, the

general picture for the automobile industry

(manufacturing, sales, service, fuel distribution,

and other auto-related enterprises) is one of sustained growth.

Automobile Manufacturing Revenues

The revenues of domestic automobile manufacturers will be influenced by changes in price,

volume, and mix. It is estimated that Government-mandated equipment to achieve fuel

economy, emissions, and safety standards will

add $400 to $500(in 1975 dollars) to the price of

a car by 1985 over the price of a comparable

1976 car. Since the cost of achieving Government standards is assumed to be roughly the

same for all cars regardless of size, the effect will

be a greater percentage increase for low-priced

models than for expensive cars.

It is anticipated that the average revenue per

domestic car sale in the United States (including

dealer markup and preparation) will not increase in proportion to the volume of sales

because of the change in mix. Gross revenues

(including dealer markup) are projected to increase from an estimated $42.9 billion in 1976 to

$56.0 billion in 1985 in 1975 dollars, with the

price of the average new car increasing from

$4,988 to $5,224. (See table 40. ) This estimate

assumes that the relative prices of cars (excluding the impact of Government standards)

will remain the same among size classes. However, some of the change in mix represents

downsizing, with little or no change in options

or interior space. Consequently, the relative

prices for downsized cars may be higher. Furthermore, changes in price structure may result

from pricing policies designed to reflect consumer demand patterns or to encourage consumers to buy smaller cars in order to meet the

corporate average fuel economy standards.

Table 40.— Estimated Gross Revenuea From Domestic Car Sales Base Case

1976 1985

Per Total Per Total

car revenue car revenue

sold (million) sold (million)

Subcompact. . . . . . . . $3,600 $ 3,276 $4,083 $ 9,176

Compact. . . . . . . . . . . 4,200 8,068 4,706 18,540

Small luxury . . . . . . . . 5,650 1,825 6,126 3,296

Intermediate. . . . . . . . 4,600 13,023 5,089 10,745

Standard. . . . . . . . . . . 5,400 11,424 5,888 5,513

Large luxury . . . . . . . . 8,800 5,333 9,274 8,671

Totals . . . . . . . . . . . $4,988 $42,949 $5,224 $55,940
70 ● Changes in the Future Use and Characteristics of the Automobile Transportation System

Capital Requirements

Production of the kind of automobile dictated

by consumer preference and Government requirements will impose major demands on the

industry to raise capital for product development and new plant and equipment. No attempt

was made to project the total capital requirements of the industry between now and 2000.

However, the following partial estimates serve

to indicate the probable magnitude of the industry’s need for capital.

The U.S. Department of Transportation has

estimated the industry investments that would

be necessary for various technologies to meet

fuel economy standards.50 The total capital requirement through 1985 is approximately $7.6

billion, or about $1 billion per year. (See table

41. ) For comparison, the annual capital investment by the industry for all purposes—annual

model change, improvement of plant and facilities, and tooling—averaged about $3.7 billion

for the period 1969-76. For the years 1973 and

1974, it averaged about $4 billion annually .51 52

Profits

The profitability of motor vehicle manufacturing varies considerably from year to year and

from company to company. On the whole, the

industry’s return on equity and profit margins

compares favorably with manufacturing generally. 53 For Base Case conditions, the key factors affecting profits are:

● The anticipated growth in sales,

● The increased capital and manufacturing

costs resulting from meeting Government

standards, and

● The change in the new car sales mix. 54

The rate of growth in sales projected for the

Base Case represents a significant increase over

the rate of growth experienced in recent years

and tends to improve the outlook for industry

profits. The costs of meeting Government standards are expected to increase the price of new

cars, but not to the point where sales or profits

are affected significantly.

The impact of sales mix on profitability is

5

’Sydec EEA, pp. 111-174 to 111-177.

“NO attempt is made to assess the impact on profits of trends in

other lines of business engaged in by manufacturers—including

foreign operations, trucks and truck parts, and nonautomotive

enterprises. The impact of each on the overall profits of the auto

companies is considerable. For instance, GM sold more than 3 million trucks in 1976, manufactured 1.6 million cars and trucks overseas, and genera ted $7.5 billion in overseas sales and $438 m i 1 lion

in defense and space work. General Motors Corporation, Anuual

Report, 1976.

Table 41 .—Added Capital Requirements for Technology to Meet Fuel Economy

Standards: Cumulative 1977-85

Total capital

Units requirement Capital per

Technology (millions) (millions) unit

Downsizing . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 $6,250 $625

Material substitution . . . . . 10 375 37.5

Improved spark-ignition

engines. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 250 25

Three-speed automatic

transmission with

torque converter lockup 10 200 20

Diesel engines. . . . . . . . . . . 1.5 562 375

$7,637
Ch. 3— The No-Policy-Change Baseline ● 71

assumed to be adverse. Projections indicate an

increase of $486 in the average price per car, but

an increase in revenue per car of only $230, due

to the shift to smaller cars. A 1976 study of two

domestic manufacturers indicates

able profit margin is less for small

large ones. ”

Several factors could offset

that the varicars than for

the possible

decline in profitability caused by the growing

share of the market captured by small cars:

●

●

●

●

✎ 

Savings in material costs due to downsizing

(possibly $200 per car),

Improvements in productivity, due to producing smaller cars in greater volume,

General improvements in technology and

efficiency, and

Sales volume growth above expectations,

which would result in lower fixed costs per

car.

No quantification of future industry profits

was attempted,

Employment and Productivity

In recent years, productivity (output per

employee) in automobile manufacturing has

grown at the rate of 2.7 percent per year. If productivity continues to increase at this rate, a

slight decline in automobile manufacturing

employment could come about by 1985. However, because of expected increases in other

types of motor vehicle manufacturing (trucks

and buses), overall employment in the industry

is expected to remain relatively constant, as it

has since 1967. 56 (See table 42. )

Table 42.—Employment in Passenger Car and Parts Manufacturing

Employment

Domestic i n domestic Domestic

new car automobile new car sales

sales a manufacturingb

per employee

1974 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7,454,000 796,000 9.36

1975 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7,053,000 772,000 9.13

1976 ...., . . . . . . . . . . . . 8,611,000 809,000 10.65

1985 Base Case. . . . . . . . 10,707,000 791,000 13.54
Chapter 4

OVERVIEW

OF POLICY

ALTERNATIVES
Chapter 4.—OVERVIEW OF POLICY ALTERNATIVES

Page

Scope of Policy Alternatives Considered . . . . . . . 75

SRI Policy Alternatives . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 76

The Relevance Tree Approach . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 76

Policies Analyzed by SR1. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77

Sydec Policy Sets..**.*.. . . . . . . . . . .**...*.. 99

Petroleum Conservation . ..................101

Improved Environment . ...................101

Increased Mobility. . ..............,.......102

Improved Accessibility.. . .................103

LIST OF TABLES

Table No. Page

43. Sydec Base Case and Policy Alternatives. . . . 99

LIST OF FIGURES

Figure No. Page

19. Relevance Tree for Energy Issues . . . . . . . . . . 78

20. Relevance Tree for Environment Issues . . . . . 82

21. Relevance Tree for Safety Issues . . . . . . . . . . . 84

22. Relevance Tree formability Issues . . . . . . . . . 90

23. Relevance Tree for Cost and Capital issues.. 94
OVERVIEW OF POLICY

4

CHAPTER

ALTERNATIVES A

SCOPE OF POLICY ALTERNATIVES CONSIDERED

The automobile assessment considered policies to deal with the five groups of issues:

energy, environment, safety, mobility, and cost

and capital. As the first step in selecting the

policies to be examined, the Office of Technology Assessment (OTA) held workshops attended by advisory panel members, consultants, and

contractors. The purpose of these workshops

was to identify a range of policy alternatives

and to select those that seemed most promising

for study. The two contractors reviewed the

workshop results and, with the guidance of

OTA, made a further selection of those that

would be subjected to detailed analysis.

One contractor, SRI, was directed to use a

relevance tree approach to policy selection. 1 The

relevance tree is a hierarchical classification of

issues, response strategies, general policies, and

specific measures to implement policies. The array of policies thus identified was very broad—

too broad for all to be examined within the time

and funds available. In consultation with OTA,

SRI therefore narrowed the list of prospective

policies to the following sets:

● Energy: Reduction of petroleum consumption and development of alternative energy

sources,

• Environment: Reduction of automobile

emissions,

● Mobility: Alternatives and complements to

the automobile,

● Cost and Capital: Highway supply, financing, and pricing decisions and control of

consumer costs of automobile use.

No safety policies were considered by SRI.

The System Design Concepts team (which included Energy and Environmental Analysis and

The Institute for Safety Analysis) was directed

to take a somewhat different approach.2 Policies

were aggregated in four sets, each designed to

accomplish a general objective:

• Petroleum Conservation

● Improved Environment

• Increased Mobility

● Improved Accessibility

Policies relating to safety and cost and capital

were incorporated in each of the policy sets, but

they were not treated as principal and motivating concerns. Potential changes in automobile system technology were also incorporated in each policy set.

75
76 ● Changes in the Future Use and Characteristics ot the Automobile Transportation System

SRI POLICY ALTERNATIVES

The Relevance Tree Approach

The relevance trees used by SRI are intended

to illuminate the relationships between the

automobile system and public policy. Basically,

the relevance tree is a classification of types of

Government responses to problems, sets of policies appropriate to deal with these problems,

specific policy measures within the policy sets,

and (if the relevance tree is appropriately extended) effects and impacts that may be expected from the policies. Thus, the relevance

tree identifies a hierarchy of elements to be included in the analysis of alternative policies affecting the automobile system. Separate relevance trees were developed for each issue area

in the automobile assessment. (See figures 1 9

through 23. )

In the construction of a relevance tree, successively more specific levels are defined in the progression from issues to policy implementation.

Level 1: Issue Area.—The issue area or subject of concern is a general class of problems related to the automobile system. For

this study, the five areas of greatest concern

are energy, environment, safety, mobility,

and cost and capital.

Level 2: Policy-Related Problems.—A policy-related problem is one that may require

legislative or executive action to resolve.

For example, a policy-related problem in

the energy area is the possibility of a gasoline shortage resulting from inadequate

supplies of petroleum (due to an embargo,

political unrest abroad, or lack of success in

exploiting domestic reserves). The problem

may be real and present, or potential.

There is no shortage of gasoline now, and it

is not certain there will be one within the

next two or three decades. But the possibility of such a shortage exists, and its impacts

would be sufficiently severe that anticipatory action should be considered. In genral,

a problem is listed on the relevance tree if it

meets three criteria: there must be a significant probability that it could occur; if it occurs, the consequences must be severe; and

●

●

●

●

the Government can initiate action to reduce the likelihood of occurrence or the severity of the consequences.

Level 3: Issues.—An issue is a matter of disagreement or dispute between two or more

parties. It involves value judgments and

possible jeopardy to the interests of one or

more parties. Statement of the issue for the

relevance tree requires that it be formulated

in a way that identifies possible Government responses.

Level 4: Strategies.—Entries at this level

identify the general strategies that might be

adopted to deal with the issue: regulations,

taxes and subsidies, Government-sponsored research and development, operation

of free-market forces, public information

programs, or Government reorganization.

These listings will be virtually the same for

all issues, since they are simply the common and proven ways of dealing with

problems. To limit the number of policies

and policy sets included in the relevance

trees, primary consideration has been given

to the first three strategies listed above,

Level 5: Policy Sets.—A policy set is a general solution to a problem, within an

adopted strategy. It does not include the

specific measures that might be employed

to implement the policy. For example, in

the environmental area, amendment of

automobile emission standards would be a

policy set within the strategy of regulation.

The definition of emission standards for individual pollutants would constitute a specific policy within this set and would be

listed at the next level on the relevance tree.

Level 6: Individual Policies.—In the example just given—amendment of emission

standards—it would be possible to devise

almost any number of different specific

standards for automobile emissions. Judgment must be exercised in choosing a number large enough to cover the spectrum of

technical and political possibilities but

small enough to avoid proliferation of the

relevance tree. The policies listed later in

the relevance trees for each issue area are
Ch. 4—Overview of Policy Alternates ● 7 7

those that, in the judgment of OTA, repre- six levels of the tree were considered adesent reasonable and realistic choices. Since quate to define a wide range of alternaothers might also be considered appropri- tive policies affecting the automobile

ate, the policies shown should be regarded system.

as only illustrative.

• Level 7. —Additional levels could be added

to the tree to gain either more specificity in

the definition of policies or greater comprehensiveness in the structuring of the policy

analysis. Sequentiallyr these levels are:

—Implementation methods,

—Categories of effects and impacts,

—Specific effects and impacts,

—Consequences for stakeholders,

—Measures to mitigate the adverse impacts

of the policy, and

—Effects and impacts of mitigation

measures.

No attempt was made to elaborate the

Policies Analyzed by SRI

Figures 19 through 23 show the relevance

trees developed for each of the five issue areas.

Each tree identifies a range of policy alternatives

that could be adopted to deal with the issues.

Since the range is broad and the number of individual policies is large, only a few could be

treated during the assessment. These are shown

by shaded boxes at Level 6 of the relevance

trees.

Some of the policies enumerated on the SRI

relevance trees were also analyzed by System

Design Concepts (Sydec), as described in the

following section of this chapter. For reference,

the policies examined by Sydec are indicated by

relevance trees to this detail since the first an asterisk on the relevance trees.
Figure 19.—Relevance Tree for Energy Issues

1. Issue area

2. Policy-related

problems

3. Issues:

To what extent

and how should

the Government

establish and

implement new

policies. . .

Energy

u

*

There is a potential for

shortages in the supply of

petroleum over the next

several decades.

I

r

I

Shortages in fossil fuel

supplies will eventually bring I

I about a switch to I

L - 1

m

-I 1

1 I

A n B

. . . To encourage

a reduction in

consumption of

petroleum-based

automotive fuel?

To encourage

a shift to auto

fuel(s) not

based on

petroleum?

I

I J

I

1

I

I . . . To encourage I

I

I

reduction in I

I

I

non automotive

consumption I

I

i of petroleum?” I

I

I I

J

I

r

To increase 1

I

. . .

automotive fuel supply I

0
Figure 19.–Relevance Tree for Energy Issues (Continued)

A 3. Issues

4. Strategies

5. Policy sets

6. Individual

policies

To what extent and how should

the Government establish and

implement policies to encourage

a reduction in consumption of

petroleum-based automotive fuel?

Regulations Taxes and Government

and standards R&D

(see next page)

subsidies

more efficient

vehicles

●

e

#

Tax less efficient Tax use of

vehicles; subsidize “surplus”

autos

n

t ●

“Gas guzzler” Weight

tax tax

m

I Increase I

I

Increase Increase

tax on

petroleum

“Analyzed by Sydec.

●
80 ● Changes in the Future Use and Characteristics of the Automobile Transportation System
Figure 19.— Relevance Tree for Energy Issues (Concluded)

3. Issues

To what extent and how should

the Government establish and

Implement policies to encourage

a shift to alternative auto

fuel(s) not based on petroleum?

I

4. Strategies

9

Regulations

5. Policy sets

Establish performance

standards that

encourage use of

based on petroleum

Relax auto

for autos using

alternate fuels

x

for a synthetic

* Analyzed by Sydec

Source: Office of Technology Assessment

I I +

Taxes and Government

I

1

I

Set tax on

petroleum-based

encourage use of

alternate fuels

a

from petroleum or

vehicles that use

alternate fuels

1

tax credit

J

guaranteed

@ -

1

Accelerated Federal

RD&D on alternate

fuels production

and on autos using

alternate fuels

L !

I

I , r

Methanol

-.

(n

●
2. Policy-related

problems

.

Environment

9

Auto use causes

high noise levels in

urban areas

and near freeways.

3. Issues:

to what extent

and how should the

Government establish

and implement new

policies . . .

m

Auto emissions may

cause significant

health and

environmental

problems.

I t

To reduce

impacts of

auto emissions?

I

1

Auto use encourages

urban sprawl, which may

be judged environmentally

and socially

undesirable.

and

subsidies

See Figure 22,

Regulations,

standards, and

enforcement

Government I

1

Other: public information;

Government procurement;

Government “yardstick”

industry

o

(See Figure 22,
I

I.fi

L
+

i

i
I I
Figure 21.–Relevance Tree for Safety Issues (Continued)

●

3. Issues: to what extent

and how should the

Government establish

and implement new.

policies. . .

4. Strategies

5. Policy sets

6. Individual

policies

Fund more

median

barriers

*

I

Subsidies

Fund

B

. . . To improve

highway design

for safety?

Fund grade

separation

of more

intersections

and highway/

railroad

crossings

wet-weather

skid

protection in

hazardous

locations

Fund pedestrian

grade

separations

in dangerous

locations

Fund impact

absorbing

roadside

devices

on subsidy

targets

identified

at the left

3

o
1 1
.—Relevance Tree for Safety Issues (Continued) ●

3. Issues: to what extent

and how should the

Government establish

and implement new

policies . . .

4. Strategies

5. Policy sets

I

Speed limits

I

D I

. . . To reduce the

number and severity

of injuries

and the number of

fatalities?

L

Regulations

and standards

6. Individual I

*

policies 1

Effective

enforcement of

55 mph nationwide

speed limit

I

1

Restricted speeds

(and driving

privileges) for

young drivers

.

. I

. . . To reduce

the amount of

economic loss?

m

Regulations

and standards

I I

Improved vehicle

Driver protection crash resistance

and repairability

I

*

Require safety

belts to be worn Require motorcycle

helmets and while vehicle “lights-on” practice is in motion

c

C/l

o

m

*Analyzed by Sydec
3. Issues: to what extent

and how should the

Government establish

and implement new

policies . . .

4. Strategies

5. Policy sets

Ch. 4—Overview of Policy Alternatives ● 89

Figure 21.–Relevance Tree for Safety Issues (Concluded)

F

,

. . . To improve the

rescue and treatment of

traffic accident victims?

Subsidy

Fund improved

emergency

medical aid

services

Information

SOURCE: Office of Technology Assessment.
●

1. Issue area

2. Policy-related

problems

3.

Mobility

I

Automobiles do not

provide efficient

transportation for

all types of trips or

adequate mobility for

all groups of people.

Issues: A 1 ●

To what extent

and how should . . . To improve

the Government accessibility and

establish and mobility for

implement new disadvantaged groups?

policies . . . 1 [

I

The future extent

and quality of the

highway system may

not be sufficient

for adequate or

desired mobility.

B

To discourage use

of congested

highways ?

+ .

c

, . . To expand

the present

highway system

and improve

its operation?

I

Increased or even

present levels of

mobility may conflict

with achievement of

other social goals,

such as freedom of

choice for low-density

urban development.

D 1

. . To reduce

conflicts between

increased mobility and

other social goals?

o

Ei

3

0

0-

=

m

(See Figure 23,

Issue 30)
4

Ch. 4—Overview of Policy Alternates ● 9 1

●
●

3. Issues: To what extent and

how should the Government

esta&lish and implement

new policies . . .

Figure 22.-Relevance Tree for Mobility Issues (Continued)

B

To discourage use of

congested highways?

4. Strategies

I

I

Regulations

and standards

#

5. Policy sets

Subsidies

7 I

Incentives

I

Encourage limited

access highways

for multipleoccupancy

vehicles

I

RD&D

.

-.

3

0
3. Issues: To what extent and

how should the Government

establish and implement

new policies . . .

Figure 22.–Relevance Tree for Mobility Issues (Concluded)

D

. . . To reduce conflicts

between increased

mobility and other

social goals?

I

I

4. Strategies

Regulations

and standards

5. Policy sets 

Require more

extensive land use

planning and

impact assessment

for

highway projects

I *

and transit

projects, such as

high densities at

transit stations

● Analyzed by Sycfec.

SOURCE: Office of Technology Assessment.

I

Taxes

and subsidies

I 1

I *

I

I

o

●
1. Issue area

2. Policy-related

problems

3. Issues: To what extent

and how should the

Government establish

and implement new

policies . . .

Figure 23.-Relevance Tree- for Cost and Capital Issues

Cost and Capital

Automobile use

may become

too expensive for

certain groups

of people.

. . . To prevent

automobile

ownership and

operation from

becoming too

costly?

The external or

indirect costs of

automobile

ownership and use

are not fully borne

by automobile users.

B I

. . . To influence

the external or

indirect costs of

automobile

ownership and

use?

National goals for

the automobile

transportation

system may be more

expensive than the

automobile industry

can afford.

. . . To influence

investment, pricing,

and competition in

the private sector

to achieve national

goals for the

automobile

transportation

system?

The present highway

financing system is

inadequate for

meeting the need to

maintain the U.S.

highway system.

. . . To influence

highway

financing?

3

(See also Figure 22

Issues 36 &C)
Figure 23.–Relevance Tree for Cost and Capital Issues (Continued)

3. Issues: To what extent and

how should the Government

establish and implement

new policies . . . m

I becoming too costly? J

I I 4, Strategies

Regulations and

standards

RD&D I

Taxes and subsidies I

a 1

Policy sets I

I

I I I I I t

5.

Regulate

pricing of

automobiles

Regulate

m

Subsidize

development

of low-cost

automobiles

!

durable and

maintainable

automobiles

Set standards

on maintenance

durability,

repairability y,

warrant y

terms, etc. of for

Subsidize

automobile

ownership

and use

Regulate

automobile

insurance

Regulate

fuel

prices

I automobile

financing

I I new and used I

Individual

b

1 T 4X 6.

Permit full

deduction of

financing

charges for all;

deduction of

gasoline taxes;

etc.

I *

1

I *

B

/

Encourage State

motor vehicle

inspection

for safety,

emissions, and

fuel economy

Set Federal

standards for

durability and

maintainability

of automobile

components

Fund industry

R&D to design

and build an

“inexpensive”

automobile

Establish

national

“no fault”

automobile

insurance

Encourage state

regulation of

automobile

repair practices

o

●

mCn
●

3. Issues: To what extent and

how should the Government

establish and implement

new policies. . .

Figure 23.-Relevance Tree for Cost and Capital issues (Continued)

B

. . . TO influence the ,

external or indirect

costs of automobile

ownership and use?

4. Strategies

5. Policy sets

6. Individual

policies

m

Regulations and

standards

, ●

I I

1

Require

evaluation of

all automobile

system costs

and benefits

1

Require

comprehensive

impact

assessments

● Analyzed by Sydec.

Set standards

for limiting

indirect costs

of automobiles

Require

development and

implementation

of land use plans

with highway

construction

Taxes and

subsidies

4 ●

I

Subsidize R&D

and manufacture

of technology

that minimizes

external costs

I

I

Federal

subsidies

of industry

R&D

a

Compensate

for indirect

costs

E

Provide

subsidies to

groups most

adversely

affected by

automobile use

o
Ch.. 4—Overview of Policy Alternatives . 97

n I

I

1

(n
●

Figure 23.-Relevance Tree for Cost and Capitai Issues (Concluded)

3. Issues: To what extent and

how should the Government

establish and implement

new policies. . .

4. Strategies

D

. . . To influence

highway financing?

Taxes and subsidies

5. Policy sets

6. Individual

policies

I .

Finance highway

maintenance

*

Authorize

matching grants

to States for

1 {

Increase

present taxes

Raise

the Federal

gasoline tax

4

Require greater

participation by

States in financing;

or increase Federal

participation

*

Change the formula

for Federal-State

contributions to

highway financing

automobile

ownership

Reestablish

excise tax on

automobiles

purchases

or registrations

o

3

● Analyzed by Sydec.
Ch.. 4—Overview of Policy Alternatives ● 99

POLICY SETS

System Design Concepts was directed to take

a somewhat more comprehensive approach to

the definition of policy sets. Sydec assembled

four “packages” of policies that attempted to

address several concerns and issues simultaneously. Each policy had a major direction or

thrust, such as energy conservation, but it also

included measures addressed to other issues,

such as environmental protection, safety, or

mobility. The four policy packages formulated

by Sydec were:

• Increased Mobility

● Improved Accessibility

Each policy package was designed to be internally consistent, in that the individual policies

were mutually supportive and compatible in

terms of their effects. A second important feature of this approach was systematic variation

of supportive policies among policy packages.

This facilitated the analysis of effects and impacts. Both of these features—internal consistency and systematic variation—can be seen by

examining the components of the four policy

packages and the Base Case, which are given in

Petroleum Conservation

Improved Environment

●

●

table 43.

Table 43.—Sydec Base Case and Policy Alternatives

Policy Trend: Petroleum lmproved Increased Improved

Accessibility ——.

Same as Base

Case.

alternatives Base Case Conservation Environment Mobility

Highway

Total highway

expenditures

Increase with inflation (stable in

constant dollars).

Increase at 1/2 of

infIation (declines 400/o b y

2000 in constant

dollars).

Same as Base

Case.

Same as Base

Case.

Increase 47°/0 over

Base Case.

Same as Base

Case. Emphasis

on community

cirrculation.

Highway

construct ion

Decreases from

50% of total highway expenditures

to 25%. in 2000.

Same as Base

Case.

Increases to high

expenditure level

of late 1960’s

(48% of total in

2000).

Same constant

dollar level as

Base Case (50°/0

of total in 2000).

Funded at $1.5 bilIion per year in

real dollars, emphasis on general

traffic movement

efficiency.

Same as Base

Case.

Highway

maintenance

Increases from

50%. of total highway expenditures

to 75% in 2000.

Existing policies —

no funding program.

Same as Base

Case.

Same as Base

Case.

Transportation

system

management

Same as Base

Case.

Separate funding

program: $200

miIIion/year

emphasizing high

occupancy vehicle movement.

Same as Improved

Environment (emphasis on pedestrian and bicycle

movement and

paratransit

services).

Same as Base

Case.

Same as Petro

leum Conservation.

Same as Petroleum Conservation. Emphasis

on services for

transit dependent

groups.

Same as Petroleum Conservation. Emphasis

on services for

transit dependent

groups.

Mass transportat ion: capital

Improvements

Increase current

dollar funding

10°/0 per year to

1985. Hold constant in real dollars to 2000.

Increase current

dollar funding

10% per year to

1985. Hold constant in real dollars to 2000.

Increase current

dollar funding

15 ”/0 per year to

1985. Hold constant i n real dollars to 2000.

Double funding ini

tially. Increase

1 5°/0 per year to

1985. Increase

10“/0 per year

1985-2000 (all

current $).

Operations Same as Petro

Ieum Conservat ion,

Same as Petroleum Conservation (emphasis

on community -

oriented transit

services).

‘Auto performance EPCA 27.5 mpg

through 2000.

33 mpg by 1990,40 Same as Petrompg by 2000, Mpg Ieum Conserminimum on all vation.

new autos.

Rigid enforcement Same as Base

of 55 mph limit. Case.

Same as Base

Case.

Same as Petroleum Conservation.

Highway speed Moderate enforcement (present

average of 62

mph).

Same as Base

Case.

Same as Base

Case.
100 . Changes in the Future Use and Characteristics of the Automobile Transportation System

Table 43.—Sydec Base Case and Policy Alternatives—Cont.

Policy —

alternatives

Petroleum Improved Increased

Conservation Environment Mobility

Trend:

Base Case

Improved

Accessibility

Taxes Fuel taxes increased to maintain 1975 revenue levels (12.3$

/gal. in 1985;

14.OC/gal. in

2000, constant

1975 dollars).

Increased gas tax Increased gas tax Same as Improved

to hold constant

fleet fuel cost

per VMT and to

equalize gas and

synfuel prices.

Gas guzzler tax

on new cars.

Same as Improved

to hold constant Environment. Environment.

fleet fuel cost

per VMT. Gas

guzzler tax on

new cars.

Same as Improved

Environment.

Air pollution

Vehicle

emissions

CO and HC same

as Base Case

Tighten NOx

,

standard to 0.4

gpm. Two-car

strategy

(electric).

Mandatory programs nationwide.

Same as Base

Case.

Attain 1977 Clean

Air Act Standards

for CO, HC, and

NOX (NOX waiver for diesels

at 1.5 gpm 1981-

83.

No mandatory program (negligible

improvements in

deterioration

rates).

Negligible traffic

reduction effect.

Same as Base

Case.

Same as Base

Case.

Inspection and

maintenance

Same as Base

Case.

Same as Base

Case.

Emphasis on autofree zones.

Transportation

controls

Same as Base

Case.

Parking management. Vehicle

use restraints.

Same as Base

Case.

Noise

Vehicle

emissions

Emission standards for trucks

and buses.

Continue existing

policies.

Same as Base

Case.

Emission standards for autos

and Iight trucks.

Continue existing

policies and expand funding to

include soundproofing.

Same as Base

Case.

Same as Base

Case.

Noise abatementSame as Base

Case.

Same as Base

Case.

Same as Base

Case.

Occupant

restraints

Airbags or t heir

equivalent on

new vehicles as

scheduled.

Existing standards.

Mandatory seat

belt use only.

Same as Base

Case.

Same as Base

Case.

Same as Base

Case.

Same as Base

Case.

Vehicle crashworthinessLevel 1. Level Il. Level I with emphasis on frontend

auto design and

pedestrian and

cyclist safety.

Propulsion 15% diesel by

1985; 40%. diesel

by 2000.

25%. diesel by

1985; 600/. diesel

by 2000. Electric

car introduction

by 2000.

Increase % of

diesel fuel;

accelerate transition to synfuels.

Potential for gas

rationing.

Same as Base

Case, except

diesels phased

out after 1990.

Same as Base

Case.

Diesel penetration same as improved Environment.

Fuels 5.6% diesel by

1985; 31 .30/0

diesel by 2000.

Same as Base

Case, except accelerate penetration of electric

cars.

Same as Base

Case.

Accelerated transitions to electric cars.

SOURCE Sydec/EEA
Petroleum Conservation

Consumption of energy, particularly petroleum products, continues to increase in the

United States, despite dwindling domestic supplies of crude oil. Oil imports now represent

almost 50 percent of total consumption. A continuation of this trend into the 1980’s could lead

to import levels of 60 percent or more, increasing the threat to national security and economic

stability. Oil imports are a major factor in the

present balance of payments deficit, which is at

a record level.

Notwithstanding present efforts in Congress

to enact major new energy policies aimed at

both conservation and increased energy supplies, it is likely that energy policy will be a continuing concern and an issue for the American

people and their elected officials for many years

to come.

Energy supplies, and particularly petroleum

products, are important to many areas of American society. Attention is focused here on the

transportation sector because it accounts for

about 50 percent of petroleum consumption.

The automobile system alone is responsible for

between 25 and 30 percent of petroleum use in

the United States.

Policies to promote reduced energy consumption by the automobile system are analyzed in

the Petroleum Conservation Case, which contains the following major elements:

The minimum fuel efficiency level for the

auto fleet would gradually increase to 23.5

mpg in 1985, leading to an average fuel efficiency of 30 mpg in 1990 and 35 mpg in

2000.

The gasoline tax would increase gradually

to hold the fuel cost per vehicle mile constant and to stimulate the introduction of

synthetic fuels. (The existing Federal and

State gasoline taxes—which average 11.65

cents per gallon would be increased by 13

cents in 1985 and 18 cents in 2000, in 1975

constant dollars. This would raise the price

of gasoline to 91 cents per gallon in 1985

and $1 .39 per gallon in 2000. )

Total expenditures for highways would decrease, primarily in construction funds but

with a slight decrease in maintenance funds

●

Ch. 4—Overview of Policy Alternates . 101

as well. (Total highway expenditures from

all levels of government would decrease

from $28.2 billion in 1975 to $22.4 billion

in 1985 and $16.8 billion in 2000. )

Federal funding for mass transit capital improvements (facilities and equipment)

would increase from $1.2 billion in 1975 to

$2.4 billion in 1985, and with funding held

constant at that level until 2000. (Federal

funds for operating subsidies would also be

increased from a base of $300 million in

1975 to $2 billion in 1985 and $4.8 billion in

2000. )

Improved Environment

The Clean Air Act Amendments of 1970 established the objective of a 90-percent reduction

in emissions of specified pollutants from automobiles as a primary measure to improve air

quality. These reductions have proven difficult

to achieve. By both executive and congressional

action, auto manufacturers have been granted

extensions in meeting emission standards. The

delays in meeting standards, as well as questions

of whether the full 90-percent reduction is necessary for public health, continue to be matters of

intense public debate.

While the objective has not yet been reached,

major reductions have been made in the emission levels of new automobiles being produced.

Still, most projections indicate that air quality

standards will not be met in many places within

the next few years and that standards for photochemical oxidants may not be met in some regions even by the year 2000.

A factor that complicates the question of

automobile emission standards is that control

devices have been shown to deteriorate over the

life of the vehicle much more rapidly than expected. It must also be recognized that many

automobiles are driven more than the 50,000

miles covered by the manufacturer’s warranty

for emission control devices. Further, it has

been established that emission levels are higher

in vehicles that are not adequately maintained.

These considerations raise the question of

whether programs to control vehicles in use

may be necessary.

The potential conflict between reduced emis-
102 ● Changes in the Future Use and Characteristics of the Automobile Transportation System

sions and petroleum conservation further complicates the problem and will be a significant

factor in propulsion technology for autos of the

future. For example, a diesel engine is significantly more fuel efficient than the present sparkignition engine. The diesel-powered auto can

meet established carbon monoxide and hydrocarbon standards but may not be able to meet

the nitrogen oxide standard. Electric cars have

no known harmful emissions, but the powerplants that produce electricity to charge the batteries may foul the air.

Potential policies to reduce automobile emissions are tested in the Improved Environment

Case:

The standards and implementation schedule for carbon monoxide and hydrocarbon

emissions as approved by Congress in the

1977 Clean Air Act Amendments would be

maintained. (The nitrogen oxide standard

would be reduced from 1.0 to 0.4 gram per

mile. )

Mandatory inspection and maintenance

would be imposed for all automobiles and

light trucks.

A program of parking management and

auto-free zones would be instituted, primarily in center cities where there is a

greater potential for providing alternative

transportation through mass transit.

Federal funding for mass transit capital improvements and operating

be at the same high levels

leum Conservation Case.

Transportation System

would be funded at a rate

subsidies would

as in the PetroManagement

of $200 million

per year to provide special expressway and

arterial street lanes for transit, carpools,

and vanpools. (Special parking privileges

would be provided for high-occupancy

vehicles. )

Total national highway expenditures

would be held constant at 1975 levels.

(Capital expenditures would decrease as

maintenance requirements increased. )

Increased Mobility

Throughout the history of the United States,

public policy has placed great value on mobility. The transportation of people and goods has

been supported by public funds and by measures to regulate the availability and price of

transportation services. Sustaining or expanding this transportation network and the personal mobility that it affords will become an increasingly difficult task. The mobility that is

now enjoyed may be threatened by energy restrictions, environmental concerns, and the

problems of auto system safety.

Thus, there is an important set of issues

relating to the extent to which the Federal

Government should continue to promote general mobility and the means by which this is to

be accomplished. A further issue is whether the

Federal Government should attempt to change

the distribution of mobility by undertaking policies to aid the transportation disadvantaged.

These issues are addressed by policies which

substantially increase the level of Federal funds

for highway construction and maintenance and

which create a higher level of funding for highway and street improvements under a transportation system management program. In order to

provide increased mobility for the transit dependent, increased Federal funding for mass

transit also is provided, with a significant

amount earmarked for special services for the

elderly and handicapped.

The policies and programs in the Increased

Mobility Case are:

● Highway expenditures would increase from

a total of $28 billion in 1975 to $37 billion

in 1985 and to $41 billion in 2000. (This

level of funding would provide $20 billion a

year for construction between 1985 and

2000, a level about the same or slightly

lower than that during the height of the

highway program in the late 1960’s. Maintenance funds would increase from $14 billion in 1975 to $17 billion in 1985 and $21

billion in 2000. )

● A transportation system management program would be funded at a level of $1.5 billion per year by 1985 and would continue

at that level to 2000. (The program would
Ch. 4—Overview of Policy Alternatives ● 103

emphasize removal of congestion points in

the highway and street network, safety improvements, and improvements to increase

the average speed of traffic flow. )

● Federal funding for mass transit capital improvements and additions would be increased from the level of $1.2 billion in

1975 to $2.4 billion in 1985 and thereafter.

(Federal assistance for transit operation

would be increased from $300 million in

1975 to $1.6 billion in 1985 and $4.4 billion

in 2000. )

• $500 million per year would be allotted to a

special program to provide transportation

for the elderly and handicapped. (The Federal share would be 80 percent, with State

and local funds making up the remainder.

The $500 million funding level would be

reached in 1985 and continued to 2000. )

● Motor vehicle fuel taxes would increase

gradually to keep the average fuel costs per

vehicle mile constant for the fleet.

Improved Accessibility

The auto system has contributed to the dispersion of manufacturing and commercial and

residential development in patterns that are

referred to as urban sprawl. The automobilehighway system has encouraged residential land

development in suburban and exurban areas

where land is relatively inexpensive and where

developers can market housing with more

amenities than could be obtained in center

cities. Local officials, hard-pressed to provide

more public services for growing communities,

have willingly provided the infrastructure

necessary for this development in order to increase the tax base.

The highly automated processes associated

with modern manufacturing and the ready

availability of truck transportation have led industry to seek the outlying areas for expansion

and replacement of older multistory center city

buildings. Commercial enterprises, particularly

retail stores and service organizations, have

followed the people to the suburbs. In recent

years, there has been a substantial movement of

commercial offices to the suburbs.

While the phenomenon of urban sprawl is

complex, its effect on transportation and particularly the automobile system is well-known

and well-documented. Public concern over

energy problems, environmental degradation,

and other social and economic issues has intensified the debate over land use and the spatial

distribution of society’s activities.

These problems are addressed

proved Accessibility Case, which

following policies:

in the Imincludes the

●

●

●

●

●

●

Quantified and measurable criteria for land

use and transportation integration would

be established. Meeting the criteria would

be a condition for Federal assistance in

planning and development.

The Federal Government would participate

directly in development of high-accessibility areas and integrated transportation

networks to serve them.

Highway funding would be held constant

at $28.1 billion for the period 1985 to 2000,

with a decreasing level of funding for construction and a reorientation to emphasize

community circulation. (Capital expenditures would decrease from $14.3 billion in

1975 to $11.2 billion in 1985 and $7 billion

in 2000. Highway maintenance would increase from $13.9 billion in 1975 to $17 billion in 1985 and $21.1 billion in 2000. )

Federal funding for capital improvements

of transit would increase from $1.2 billion

in 1975 to $1.7 billion in 1985 and after.

(Federal assistance for transit operation

would be increased from $300 million in

1975 to $2 billion in 1985 and to $4.8 billion in 2000. Funding for operating assistance would emphasize community-oriented

transit services. )

Air quality standards for carbon monoxide

and hydrocarbons would be held at the

levels approved in 1977, with the standard

for nitrogen oxides tightened to 0.4 gram

per mile.

Air quality control plans would emphasize

auto-free zones.
Chapter 5

ENERGY ISSUES, POLICIES,
Chapter 5.- ENERGY ISSUES, POLICIES, AND FINDINGS

Page

Summary. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 107

Background . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .100

Present Policy. . . * .,, * . . . . . ., ., * . . * .*.*...** 113

Energy Policy and Conservation Act . ........113

Nationwide 55 Mph Speed Limit . . . . . . . . . . . . . 113

Emergency Petroleum Allocation Act . .......114

The Electric and Hybrid Vehicle Act . ........114

Advanced Automotive Technology and

Synthetic Fuels Development.. . . . ........114

Issues . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 115

Policy Alternatives . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .115

Petroleum Conservation Policy Case. . .......115

individual Policies Analyzed. . ..............116

Effects . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 121

Effects of Petroleum Conservation Policy Case121

Effects of Conservation Policies . ...........122

Effects of Transition to Alternate

Energy Sources . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 129

Impacts ● . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 133

Table No. Page

48. Policy Options to Promote Alcohol Fuels. . . . 119

49. Policy Options to Promote Electric

Automobiles . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 120

50. Automobile Energy Demand, Petroleum

Conservation Case . . . . . . . ................122

51. Projected Gasoline Savings Under the

National Energy Plan Standby Gasoline Tax. .125

52. Estimates of Synthetic Fuel Production

in 2000 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 132

53. Projections of Electric Vehicle Penetration .. 132

54. Comparison of Fuel Economies . . . . . . . . . . . . 133

55. Air Quality Impacts of Petroleum

Conservation Case. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .134

56. Factors Influencing Change in Automobile

Emissions for the Petroleum Conservation

Case. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 134

57. Electric Vehicle Emissions Compared to

Gasoline Vehicle Emissions in 2000........135

58.1985 New Car Sales Mix for the Petroleum

Environment. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ......133 Conservation Case. . .

Safety. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .............136

Mobility. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ...........137

Cost and Capital. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. ...137

LIST OF

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 138

FIGURES

Figure No.

LIST OF TABLES

Page

24. U.S. Petroleum Demand . .................109

Table No. Page 25. U.S. Petroleum Supply and Demand .. ......110

44.

45.

46.

47.

Fuel-Economy Standards Assumed for -26. Estimates of World Oil Production . . . . . . . . . . 111

the Base Case . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 113 27. Cost of Operating a Suburban-Based

Assumptions and Conditions for Petroleum Automobile. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. ....125

Conservation Case. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 116 28. Miles Driven Annually, by Family income

Policy Options for Automobile Fuel and Trip Purpose . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 129

Conservation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 117 29. Effects of Gasoline Rationing on Automobile

Policy Options to Promote Synfuels . .......119 Fuel Consumption. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 130
ENERGY ISSUES, POLICIES,

5

Chapte r

AND FINDINGS

SUMMARY

The automobile transportation system now

uses over 5 million barrels per day (MMBD) of

petroleum, or about 30 percent of total U.S.

consumption. More efficient automobile designs

and the shift to smaller cars are expected to lead

to a decline in petroleum consumption by automobiles under Base Case conditions. By 2000, it

is estimated that automobiles will use between

4.2 and 4.8 MMBD, or about 20 percent of expected U.S. petroleum consumption at that

time.

The United States now imports about 50 percent of its petroleum at a cost of over $42 billion

per year. Petroleum imports account for a

major part of the current $27 billion annual balance-of-payments deficit. In the Base Case, it is

estimated that as much as 70 percent of U.S.

petroleum supply in the year 2000 would be imported. If so, the cost of imports could rise to

over $146 billion per year. (All dollar amounts

specified are in 1975 dollars unless noted otherwise. ) However, it is doubtful that this level of

petroleum imports can be sustained. Several

studies have predicted a shortfall by the late

1980’s, and the threat of another oil embargo is

always present. In addition, most experts predict severe depletion of worldwide petroleum

supplies within 50 years.

For these reasons, this study considered

changes in present Federal policies and programs, both to achieve greater conservation of

petroleum by automobiles and to expedite the

development of alternate automotive energy

sources.

Among the petroleum conservation policies

considered were:

• More stringent fuel-economy standards,

● Auto use disincentives and transit promotion,

• Improved transportation system management,

• Auto use controls,

• Increased gasoline taxes, and

● Gasoline rationing.

Although the first four of these policies would

have beneficial effects, none is expected to produce petroleum conservation of significant magnitude or to avoid the serious consequences of a

petroleum shortfall or embargo. More stringent

measures, such as greatly increased gasoline

taxes and gasoline rationing, were also considered. These measures could be used to conserve fuels and to control the consequences of an

embargo or longrun shortage of petroleum, but

they might entail serious economic penalties.

Conservation, however, is not a permanent

solution. Sooner or later, the automobile transportation system will have to convert to alternate energy sources. Between 1980 and 2000, it

may be possible to start using shale oil, coal

liquids, alcohol, gasohol, or electrical energy

storage on a large scale. As of now, there is no

clear choice as to which would be the most technologically and economically feasible. All of the

alternatives are more costly and require more

total energy than petroleum. None is likely to be

available before 1990 unless an active development and investment program is begun immediate] y.

107
108 ● Changes in the Future Use and Characteristics of the Automobile Transportation System

BACKGROUND

Today, more than 80 percent of U.S. households own one or more automobiles, and over

90 percent of personal travel is by automobiles.

Under Base Case assumptions, it is estimated

that vehicle miles traveled will increase by 75

percent to 1.8 trillion miles per year by 2000. It

is expected that new car sales will be about 16

million per year then, compared to 11 million

now. The total of automobiles in operation will

grow from the present 100 million vehicles to

148 million,

The growth of automobile use in our society

has been made possible, in part, by the availability of low-cost petroleum, Government policies, which have kept fuel prices low, have

stimulated and helped sustain this growth.

Automobiles now use over 5 MMBD of petroleum, or about 30 percent of total U.S. consumption. (See figure 24. ) Under Base Case conditions, the use of petroleum by automobiles in

2000 is projected to be 0.4 MMBD or about 8

percent below the 1975 level. This reduction is

more substantial than it may appear because it

comes about despite a 75-percent increase in

automobile travel by the end of the century.

The future availability of automotive fuel

must be set in the context of total U.S. petroleum supply and demand. At present, total demand exceeds domestic supply to the point that

about half of the U.S. needs are met with imported oil. Despite current conservation policies

and emphasis on increasing domestic production, it is estimated that the need for foreign oil

will grow and could reach as high as 70 percent

of demand by 2000. The Base Case assumes that

U.S. fuel demand would be 22.4 MMBD, of

which as much as 15.4 MMBD would have to be

obtained abroad or provided by alternative

energy sources yet to be developed.
c

Z

20

15

10

5

U.S. Petroleum Demand

NOTE: Assumes

continuation of Electrical 0.6

27.5 mpg for new

cars beyond 1985. Residential &

? commercial

Electrical

3.1

Residential &

\ 4 commercial

Electrical

1.6 2.7 Industrial 1

Residential & 6.1

Commercial

Industrial

3.5

5.6

Industrial Rail, air,

3.2

water

Rail, air, 3.9 r water

Rail, air,

water 2.9

2.1

Truck Truck Truck

1.9

. 2.6 3.9

I

Auto

Auto Auto

5.2 4.8 4.8

1976 1985 2000

The peaking of petroleum production—first sometime between 1985 and 2000.1 Other exin the United States and later throughout the

world—has been predicted by several experts,

among them M. King Hubbert. Hubbert projected that U.S. production could be expected to

peak by the late 1970’s, which it has. He has also

forecasted that world production will peak
110 ● Changes in the Future Use and Characteristics of the Automobile Transportation System

25

20

15

10

5

0

Figure 25.—U.S. Petroleum Supply and Demand

(MMBD)

22A

20.1

.

17.5

-9.7

10.1

Demand for

petroleum imports

and alternate

fuels (700/.)

Alaskan contribution

Lower 48

1976 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

SOURCE: Adapted from Sydec EEA, p III-92

perts disagree with Hubbert’s view and estimate

that the world production of petroleum from

proven reserves will be adequate to meet demand through 2000 and beyond.

The likelihood of a petroleum shortage over

the next two to three decades depends on a number of factors or events, including:

●

●

●

●

●

Growth in world demand for oil,

Drilling and finding rates for oil,

Growth of production capacity in the oilproducing nations,

Production and pricing policy decisions of

oil-producing nations, and

Rates of commercialization of alternative

liquid fuels.

It is beyond the scope of the present study to

investigate in detail the factors affecting the balance between petroleum supply and demand.

Several independent analyses, of which the

Workshop on Alternative Energy Strategies

(WAES) 2 is probably the most exhaustive, point

to the prospect that world demand for oil could

outstrip the growth of new oil-producing capacity within the next decade.

The WAES study projects sufficient petroleum supply to meet demand up to 1985. However, after 1985 a gap between supply and unconstrained demand will appear and widen

rapidly. (See figure 26. ) By 2000, under even the

1985-2000 (New York: McGraw-Hill,

1977).
100

90

80

70

60

50

40

Ch. 5—Energy Issues, Policies, and Flndings • 111

Figure 26.—Estimates of World Oil Production

A. WOCAa Case C-1

No OPEC

OPEC production

limit at 45 MMBD

OPEC production

limit at 33 MMBO

Demand

301- 1

20

Non-OPEC production

10

1975 80 85 90 95 2000 05 10 15 20 2025

B. WOCA Case D-8

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

No OPEC

OPEC production

C-1 Assumptions—high economic

growth rate, rislng energy price,

vigorous government

response, coal as the

principal replacement

fuel, and gross additions to 011 reserves 20 billion

barrels per year

D-8 Assumptions—low economic

growth rate, constant energy price,

restrained government response,

nuclear as the principal replacement

fuel, and gross additions to oil reserves

10 billlon barrels per year

1975 80 85 90 95 2000 05 10 15 20 2025

‘WOCA—World Outside SOURCE Workshop on Alternate Energy Strategies (WAES)’

Communist Area Energy Global Prospects 1985-2000, p 20

most optimistic scenarios, shortfalls of 25 to 35 served almost exclusively for transportation and

percent are projected. The WAES study con- petrochemical feedstocks. WAES also concluded that, to keep supply and demand in bal- cluded that, while there is a range of opportuniance through 2000 while maintaining economic ties for closing the petroleum supply and degrowth, there would have to be a massive shift mand gap, they require enormous planning efto coal and nuclear power, with petroleum re- forts, intensive engineering, and major capital
112 . Changes in the Future Use and Characteristics of the Automobile Transportation System

investments with leadtimes usually of 10 or

more years. In order to close the gap, development efforts would have to be started immediately for an adequate supply of alternative fuels

to be assured by 1985-90.

Actually, the complete exhaustion of oil

resources will not occur. As production by conventional methods declines and oil becomes

more scarce, the price will rise and more expensive recovery methods and novel technologies

will be employed to produce additional oil or

alternatives. As this process continues, the price

of oil as an automotive fuel could become prohibitively high. If major improvements in oil

recovery techniques were made, they would

probably not raise the peak production level.

They would be more likely to create a plateau in

the production curve or to make decline from

the peak less abrupt.

Accompanying the prospect of a long-term

decline in petroleum reserves is the short-term

threat of a major disruption in supply, such as a

repetition of the 1973-74 oil embargo, To deal

with temporary disruptions of petroleum supply, the Carter Administration has adopted several policies. The first is to expand the strategic

petroleum reserve to 1 billion barrels which,

combined with domestic production and emergency conservation measures, would supply

essential domestic needs for about 10 months

during an embargo.3

The process of building up

the level of petroleum storage was begun in 1977

and will take some years to complete. The second policy is a standby rationing system which,

as currently planned, involves “white market”

(transferable) coupons.4

The control of the price and supply of imports

is largely in the hands of the OPEC nations and

other foreign oil producers. The price of imported crude oil has risen since the 1973 oil embargo. In the Base Case, it is assumed that the

world oil price will increase 3 percent per year,

with the result that the price in constant dollars

will double by 2000.

Probably the most serious impact of these

market conditions, aside from the threat of

another oil embargo, is the effect on the balance

of payments, the value of the dollar, and employment. In 1977, the cost of imported oil was

$42.1 billion, making it a major contributor to

the $26.7 billion deficit in the balance of payments. In 1985, with the price of petroleum at

‘Executive Office of the President, Energy Policy and Planning,

Th[I Nutfo)lul Energ~ PIuI? Proposal, Apr. 29, 1977,

‘Feder-al Register 43, (June 28, 1978, Part II): 2813328168, ‘‘Contingency Gasoline Rationing Plan, ” Proposed Rules.

Photo Credlf U S Department of Energy
Ch. 5—Energy Issues, Policies, and Findings ● 113

$17 per barrel and imports at 10 MMBD, the annual cost would be $62 billion. If the price of

petroleum were to double by 2000, reaching $26

per barrel, the cost of importing oil at the rate of

15.4 MMBD to meet domestic requirements

would be $146 billion annually.

The problem of adequate petroleum supply

will begin when production peaks and will grow

worse with each succeeding year. For perspective, it should be noted that a shortfall of only

10 percent would limit consumption more severely than all of the conservation and curtailment policies normally considered. Thus, there

is a clear need to explore a range of policy options to achieve greater conservation of petroleum as an automobile fuel and to hasten the development of alternate energy sources.

PRESENT POLICY

Before turning to an examination of alternatives, it is necessary to look briefly at the major policies now being pursued to see what effects they can be expected to have on petroleum

consumption by automobiles.

Energy Policy and Conservation Act

The Energy Policy and Conservation Act

(EPCA), enacted in December 1975, seeks to

promote energy conservation in a variety of

ways, many directly aimed at the automobile

transportation system. Prominent among these

are the new car fuel-economy standards mandated for model years 1978 through 1985.

Standards for light trucks will also go into effect

beginning with the 1979 model year. (See table

44. )

Table 44.— Fuel-Economy Standards

Assumed for the Base Case’

Sales-weighted

Model year new car fleet average

1978 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 8

b

1979 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19b

1980 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 0

b

1981 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22c

1982 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24c

1983 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26c

1984 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27c

1985 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27.5b

1990 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27.5/30.0d

2000 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27.5/35.0d

aValues shown are those to be achieved on the EPA prototype vehicle

dynamometer tests Fuel consumption estimates prepared for this study

assume that performance by vehicles in use IS 10 to 20 percent less

bMandated by EPCA

EPCA provides the Secretary of Transportation with authority to amend the average fuel

economy standard for model year 1985, or any

subsequent model year. However, any such

amendment may not lower the standard beyond

26 mpg without approval of both Houses of

Congress. EPCA does not make provision for

standards beyond 1985. One policy issue is

whether the 1985 standards should be maintained or increased further between 1985 and

2000.

In addition to mandating automobile fueleconomy characteristics, EPCA also provides

for programs to foster energy conservation in

automobile use. Among these are:

●

●

●

Promotion of carpools, vanpools, and public transportation,

Encouragement to States and municipalities

to adopt right-turn-on-red laws, and

Transportation system management and

transportation controls.

Nationwide 55 Mph Speed Limit

The 55 mph speed limit for highway traffic

was established in 1974 as a means to save

gasoline during the oil embargo. The law was

especially effective during its first year or two,

when compliance was much higher than it is today. Reduced speed not only saved petroleum

but also provided an important extra benefit in

lessening highway fatalities and injuries. More

recently, the law has been less effective because

of declining compliance and unwillingness by

some States to enforce the law rigorously. A
114 ● Changes in the Future Use and Characteristics of the Automobile Transportation System

survey by the Department of Transportation

showed that, during the first 6 months of 1977,

from 30 to 77 percent of the vehicles on highways in various States exceeded the 55 mph

limit. 5 Congress empowered the Secretary of

Transportation to cut off highway construction

funds to States failing to enforce the 55 mph

speed limit, but this sanction has never been invoked. Lack of enforcement remains the major

deficiency of this law.

Emergency Petroleum Allocation Act

The Emergency Petroleum Allocation Act,

passed in November 1973, provides the Administration with authority to allocate petroleum

and to set price controls during an emergency.

The responses by the Federal Government to the

1973-74 embargo consisted primarily of the

measures authorized under this Act.

where such subs

eneficial.

itution would b e

Responsibility for administering the Act was

placed on the Energy Research and Development Administration (ERDA), now incorporated into the Department of Energy (DOE).

Funding of $37.5 million has been requested by

DOE for FY 1979 to handle these responsibilities. Work already completed includes initial

studies and analysis of program requirements,

review of the state of the art, publication of the

first set of performance standards, and plans for

a loan guarantee program. In addition, R&D

has begun on batteries, components, and vehicles to assist industry in improving product

performance, utility, and reliability. A demonstration program has been formulated to place

at least 200 electric-vehicles on the road by 1979

and between 7,500 and 10,000 by 1984.6

The Electric and Hybrid Vehicle Act

The Electric and Hybrid Vehicle Research,

Development, and Demonstration Act was

passed in September 1976 and amended in 1978.

Its aim is to foster the use of electric- and

hybrid-vehicles as an alternative to petroleumfueled automobiles. The intent of this law was

to:

●

●

●

●

Encourage and support research on, and

development of, electric- and hybridvehicle technologies,

Demonstrate the economic and technological practicability of electric and hybrid

vehicles for personal and commercial use in

urban areas and for personal and agricultural use in rural areas,

Facilitate, and remove barriers to, the use

of electric- and hybrid-vehicles instead of

gasoline- and diesel-powered vehicles, and

Promote the substitution of electric- and

hybrid-vehicles for many gasoline- and

diesel-powered vehicles now used in routine shorthaul, low-load applications,

Advanced Automotive Technology and

Synthetic Fuels Development

The Department of Energy inherited from the

Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) a program to promote development of new technologies for automobile engines, transmissions,

and drivetrain components. DOE has entered

into a cost-sharing contract with an industry

consortium to develop the Stirling engine over

an 8-year period. DOE also expects to place

contracts for development of gas turbine

engines—a continuation of the R&D work performed by the Chrysler Corporation with

Federal support since the 1950’s.

The Department of Energy also inherited

from EPA a program for the development of

synthetic fuels. The program originally concentrated on state-of-the-art and feasibility studies.

At the present time, small pilot plants are being

built to test alternative processes for converting

oil shale and coal to synthetic fuel. Emphasis on

this program has grown considerably within the

past year.

‘Electrir and HyhriJ Vehicle Act, Statl/tes at Large 90, 1260

( 1976), U S CoL?r vo], 15, sec. 2501-2514, VO]. 42, sec. 2451 and

2473, as amended by the ERDA Aut/]or]zatio)l Act of 1978, 1’.1..

95-238, 95th Cong., 2d sess., Feb. 25, 1978, S, 1340, Title VI.
Ch.. 5—Energy Issues, Policies, and Findings ● 115

ISSUES

The automobile transportation system is confronted with a serious challenge. Abundant lowcost petroleum is no longer assured. Growing

petroleum imports, of which automobile fuel

demand is a large part, have contributed to a

serious negative balance of payments. Efforts to

conserve petroleum have so far been slow, difficult, and limited in results. All alternatives to

petroleum are more costly and require major investments with high risks. All will take many

years to bring to full development and commercialization. Thus, something clearly needs to be

done about the way in which automobiles use

energy and about assuring a continuing supply

of energy for personal transportation. The

policy questions facing the Government, the industry, and the public can be summed up in two

basic issues:

• Should the Government adopt policies to

effect a transition from petroleum to alternate energy sources for automobiles? When

should the transition be made? What are

the feasible paths?

● Should specific limits or allocations be established for petroleum consumption in the

automotive transportation sector? Or, alternatively, should the Government let the

market price balance supply and demand?

Concerning the first issue, the Federal Go vernment may have to become involved because

the capital requirements are so high and the

risks so great that private industry would be

unlikely to undertake the needed research and

development without strong encouragement

and perhaps Federal Government participation.

Federal Government involvement might also be

necessary to ensure a smooth and expeditious

transition and

with resulting

economy.

The second

to prevent disruption of supply

hardships on citizens and the

issue, limiting petroleum consumption, must be confronted while the longer

term transition is taking place. If a petroleum

shortfall occurs, there will be a need to consider

further measures to reduce fuel consumption in

all sectors, including automobile transportation. The issue addressed in this report is how to

achieve petroleum conservation by the automobile transportation system through policies that

do not have severe negative impacts on consumers, the auto industry, or the economy in

general.

POLICY ALTERNATIVES

Policies to deal with the issues outlined above

were analyzed in two ways. First, a policy case

was constructed to deal with the combined impacts and effects of several policies working

together to conserve petroleum. Second, an

analysis was carried out of the impacts and effects of individual policies to conserve petroleum or to encourage the transition to alternative sources.

Petroleum Conservation Policy Case

The rationale of the Petroleum Conservation

Policy Case was to foster substantial reduction

in fuel consumption by automobiles without

major adverse impacts in the areas of mobility,

environment, safety, and cost. Specific policies

within this set include:

● EPCA fuel-economy standards for new cars

as now mandated for 1978-85, with escalation of the standards to 33 mpg in 1990 and

40 mpg in 2000,

Ž New car fuel-economy standards that

establish a minimum of 16 mpg for all cars

in the 1980 model year and an increase of 1

mpg each year thereafter until reaching 21

mpg in 1985,

● An excise tax on fuel-inefficient automobiles (“gas guzzlers” ) that increases from

a maximum of $553 in 1979 to $3,856 in

1985, and
116 . Changes in the Future Use and Characteristics of the Automobile Transportation System

● An increased gasoline tax to keep average

fleet fuel cost per mile constant after 1979–

the increase amounting to 7 cents per gallon

in 1980 and 18 cents per gallon by 2000.

The gasoline tax would be adequate until

1985 to serve also as an incentive to alternative

fuel production. Depending on fuel prices and

auto fuel efficiencies after 1985, additional taxes

might be required to maintain the price advantage of alternate fuels. The assumptions for this

set of policies are summarized and compared

with the Base Case in table 45.

As a supplement to the Petroleum Conservation Policy Case, the analysis was extended to

consider the consequences of a staged rationing

program designed to bring about forced reductions in petroleum consumption for the long

term.

In addition to Federal policies that have a

direct impact on the cost of driving and on fuel

economy, there are other measures that could

divert or reduce reliance on conventional automobiles and conventional auto fuels. For example, a gasoline tax or rationing program might

be accompanied by Federal subsidies for electric

car development and purchase. Stringent fueleconomy standards for new cars could be accompanied by increasing Federal R&D for auto

technologies. The negative effects of a gasoline

tax on mobility could be somewhat alleviated

by subsidies for mass transit and vanpooling.

These supporting policies to improve mobility,

while clearly important to the success of energy

conservation efforts, are not examined in detail

in this chapter, but they are considered later in

chapter 8.

Individual Policies Analyzed

The range of policy alternatives for effecting

automobile petroleum conservation and a transition to alternate sources is extensive. Time and

resources did not permit analysis of all the alternatives. The policies selected for study here are

those that focus on actions related to the automobile. These policies address what the automobile sector could do to lower demand for

petroleum while continuing to meet basic transport needs. For example, policies that would

Table 45.—Assumptions and Conditions for Petroleum Conservation Case

Assumptions Base Case Petroleum Conservation

Highway

Total highway

expenditures

Mass transportation

Capital improvements

Operations

Auto feul economy

Highway speed

Safety

Occupant restraints

Technology

Propulsion

Fuels

Increases with inflation (stable in

constant dollars).

Increase current dollar funding 10%

per year to 1985. Hold constant in real dollars to 2000.

Same as above.

EPCA 27.5 mpg beyond 1985.

Moderate enforcement (present average

of 62 mph).

Airbags or equivalent on new vehicles

as scheduled.

10% of new cars diesel by 1985;

25°/0 by 2000. Negligible electric

vehicles in use.

4.4°/0 diesel by 1985; 17.9°/0 diesel

by 2000.

Increases at 1/2 inflation rate (declines

40% by 2000 in constant dollars).

Increase current dollar funding 15%

per year to 1985. Hold constant in real dollars to 2000.

Double funding initially. Increase

15% per year to 1985. Increase

10°/0 per year 1985-2000 (all

current dollars)

33 mpg by 1990; 40 mpg by 2000.

Gas-guzzler tax and ban.

Rigid enforcement of 55 mph limit.

Mandatory seat belt use only.

25% of new cars diesel by 1985; 60% by

2000.11 million electric vehicles

in use by 2000. Neglible use of

advanced engine technologies.

Increase % of diesel fuel; accelerate

transition to synfuels. Potential for gas

rationing.

SOURCE Sydec/EEA, p 1.7
Ch. 5—Energy Issues, Policies, and Findings ● 117

give priority to the auto in the allocation of

petroleum were not considered. In assessing the

transition policies, no attempt was made to

determine how other sectors might make use of

the new energy forms.

Petroleum Conservation Policies

Basically, these policies are designed to influence behavior in two ways:

1. To promote the design and sale of fuel- efficient vehicles, and

2. To promote more energy-conscious use of

automobiles or to provide alternative

modes of transportation.

In table 46, several policies have been listed in

each of these categories. Four policies from this

list are analyzed in this chapter:

● Tighter fuel-economy standards,

• Higher gasoline prices,

Ž Free-market pricing, and

● Gasoline rationing.

Table 46.—Policy Options for

Automobile Fuel Conservation

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

Vehicle fuel-efficiency policies

Tighter fuel economy standards

Gas-guzzler ban

Gas-guzzler tax

Efficiency incentive tax

National inspection and maintenance program

Scrappage of fuel-inefficient cars

Subsidized industry research and development

Automobile use policies

Improvements to traffic flow

Stricter enforcement of 55 mph speed limit

Deregulation of gasoline and diesel fuel prices

High gasoline taxes

Gasoline rationing

Carpooling and vanpooling promotion and

priorities

Public transit expansion

Subsidized telecommunications networks

Public education and appeals

Auto use controls

Annual VMT-based tax

Transition to Alternate Sources

Policies to stimulate transition to alternate

energy sources for automobiles were divided

into three groups according to the type of

energy source promoted: synthetic liquid fuel,

alcohol fuels, and electric- or hybrid-vehicles.

Synthetic fuels from coal or shale oil would

require the least change in the automobile and

energy systems. Although the technologies for

producing liquids from coal and shale oil are

quite different, the end product from either

would be a synthetic crude oil. Such a product

could then be refined into gasoline, diesel fuel,

or any other suitable liquid through conventional petroleum-refining processes.

Neither coal-based nor shale-based synfuels

technology now exists on a commercial scale in

the United States. Commercial technologies

now employed in other nations (notably South

Africa) produce fuel that is substantially more

expensive than gasoline derived from petroleum. Uncertainties about the eventual cost of

production, about the technology to mitigate

environmental damage, and especially about

the future price of petroleum-based gasoline are

presently the main barriers to development of

these alternatives. Policies to encourage the

development of synfuels must assure developers

that the fuels they eventually produce will be

marketable and that they will receive a reasonable rate-of-return on investment. The policies

that could be adopted to stimulate development

of production facilities and marketing of synfuels are listed in table 47.

A second major alternative to gasoline is a

fuel composed of alcohol or a blend of gasoline

and alcohol. Several alcohols are under consideration, but the most likely candidate is

methanol (methyl alcohol). Several experiments

with methanol as an automobile fuel are now

underway in the United States and in other

countries. Methanol can be derived from coal,

from natural gas, from organic wastes, and

from biomass.

Methanol may be used as a substitute automobile fuel in two different ways: as a mixture

or blend, i.e., the “gasohol” alternative, and as

a “true” replacement for gasoline. Some proponents suggest that the former strategy could be

employed as a precursor to the latter.
118 ● Changes in the Future Use and Characteristics of the Automobile Transportation System

Oil Shale Retorting Photo Credit U S Departrnent of Energy
Ch. 5—Energy Issues, Policies, and Findings ● 119

Table 47.—Policy Options to Promote Synfuels

Strategy

Regulation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Taxes and subsidies. . . . . . . . . . .

Government RD&D . . . . . . . . . . .

Government commercialization .

SOURCE Adapted from SRl p I 20

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

—.——— Policy measures

Relax environmental standards for coal mining, shale oil mining, and

——

synfuels processing.

Regulate synfuels industry as a public utility, guaranteeing a reasonable

rate of return.

Deregulate prices of oil and remove gasoline price ceilings.

Increase investment tax credits for synfuels producers.

Guarantee Government price support for syncrude.

Federal Government purchase and resell sync rude.

Loan guarantees.

Direct loans.

Accelerate oil shale and coal liquefaction RD&D with main emphasis on

commercialization.

Support research to reduce potential environmental impacts of synfuel

processing.

Establish Government owned and operated synfuels industry (i.e.,

similar to TVA).

Because methanol cannot be easily mixed two fuels would be mixed at the pump.

with gasoline in the present fuel distribution Table 48 shows a range of policy options to system, policies aimed at promoting a methanol encourage the production and use of alcohol- distribution and storage system need to be con- based automobie fuels.

sidered as well. Methanol would have to be

transported and stored in separate facilities. If A third alternative, which may be pursued in

gasohol blends were the chosen alternative, the conjunction with either or both of the previous

Table 48.—Policy Options to Promote Alcohol Fuels

Strategy Policy measures

Regulation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ●

●

●

Taxes and subsidies. . . . . . . . . . . ●

●

●

●

●

Government RD&D . . . . . . . . . . . . ●

●

Set different emissions and performance standards for automobiles

using alcohol or alcohol-gasoline blends.

Require that an increasing proportion of new automobiles be designed

to use a alcohol-gasoline blends.

Require automobile fuel distributors and retailers to handle alcohol.

Subsidize automobile industry development of alcohol-gasoline or pure

alcohol engines.

Subsidize purchase of autos using gasoline-alcohol fuels.

Provide tax credit for retrofitting used cars to make use of blended fuels.

Subsidize development of alcohol fuel conversion, distribution, and

storage systems.

Purchase and operate a Government-owned fleet of alcohol or alcoholgasoline fueled automobiles.

Accelerate RD&D on integrating alcohol into existing fuel distribution

systems.

Accelerate RD&D on long-term alternative automobiIe engines.

SOURCE Adapted from SRI p I 22
120 ● Changes in the Future Use and Characteristics of the Automobile Transportation System

courses of action, is to encourage a shift to electrically powered automobiles. Assuming that

electric cars are a viable and economic alternative to conventionally powered automobiles,

electricity itself is readily available from any

number of energy-conversion processes.

Electric automobiles (and hybrid-vehicles)

have the general advantages of making very efficient use of electricity and, in comparison with

conventional autos, they may be more environmentally benign. At present, however, neither

battery- nor electric-car technology is sufficiently advanced to produce an electric car that is, on

the whole, competitive with conventional

automobiles in terms of range, performance,

and cost.

The major stakeholders involved in a shift to

electric automobiles include automobile users,

the automobile manufacturers and after-markets, and, to some extent, the fuel distribution

system. Policies to promote electrics must focus

on the activities and interactions among these

three major groups.

Table 49 summarizes policy options for encouraging the development and use of electric or

hybrid automobiles. (In general, hybrids are

considered a less well-developed technology

than pure electrics. However, most of the same

policy options are applicable. ) As a second way

to promote electric-vehicles, table 49 also lists

complementary policies to discourage the use of

conventional automobiles.

Table 49.— Policy Options to Promote Electric Automobiles

Policy measures

Policies encouraging Policies discouraging use of

Strategy electric automobiIes conventionally powered automobiles

Regulation ●

●

●

●

Taxes and subsidies ●

●

●

●

Government RD&D ●

Require that a proportion of new auto

sales be electric automobiIes by a certain year.

Change utility pricing to encourage

use of off peak times to recharge electric autos.

Relax certain standards for electric

automobiles (e. g., safety).

Give electric vehicles credit for being

low or non petroleum users in computing corporate average fuel

economics.

Subsidize automobile industry

development of electric automobiles

and batteries.

Subsidize parts or all oft he cost

of electric automobiIes (e. g.,

insurance, fuel, maintenance, etc.).

Purchase and operate a Government

electric-automobile fIeet.

Subsidize purchases of electrics for

commercial automobile fleets.

Accelerate Government RD&D on

batteries, electric automobiles,

and hybrid automobiles.

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

Increase restrictions on air emissions

of conventionally powered automobiles, especially in urban areas.

Establish restricted zones for

conventional automobiles.

Reduce performance on conventional

cars

Allocate petroleum.

Increase taxes on conventional autos.

Increase cost of access to highways

and parking for conventional

automobiles.

Increase taxes on conventional

automobile fuels.

SOURCE Adapted from SRI, p 1.23
The analysis of policy alternatives concentrated on two types of outcomes—effects and

impacts. Effects were defined as the primary and

intended results of pursuing a policy action, i.e.,

outcomes directly related to the objectives of the

policy. Impacts were defined as secondary or

unintended results, falling in areas not directly

related to policy objectives.

As an illustration of the distinction between

effects and impacts, consider the energy policies

discussed in this chapter. The objective of these

policies is either to conserve petroleum or to

promote the use of alternate energy sources. The

effects of these policies, therefore, are the

amount of petroleum saved or the degree to

which other forms of energy are substituted.

The impacts of these policies are the other

results that follow in areas such as environmental pollution, safety, mobility, cost, and so on.

Effects are, by definition, positive outcomes

since every policy can be presumed to attain its

objective to a greater or lesser degree. Impacts

may be positive or negative. For example, the 55

mph speed limit was implemented to conserve

petroleum, but also is credited with significant

reductions in highway fatalities (a positive impact). A negative impact of this policy was the

increase in trip times.

The overall worth of a policy must, be judged

by weighing advantages against disadvantages

and striking some suitable balance. During the

assessment, this process was carried only part

way to completion. An attempt was made to

identify effects and impacts and, where possible, to express them in quantitative terms.

Where quantitative measurement was not possible, estimates were made of the direction and

general magnitude of possible outcomes. However, no attempt was made to balance effects

against impacts in an overall evaluation of

policies or to analyze the more subtle interactions between effects and impacts.

The effects of the energy policies examined

are presented under three headings:

Ch. 5—Energy Issues, Policies, and Findings ● 121

EFFECTS

1.

2.

Effects of Petroleum Conservation Policy

Case,

Effects of Conservation Policies, and

3. Effects of Transition to Alternate Sources.

In certain instances, results of the analysis of the

Petroleum Conservation Policy Case have been

used as supporting material in the discussions of

the effects and impacts of individual policies.

The findings presented in this section are

synopses and highlights of more detailed information in the contractors’ reports. Impacts

are considered separately in the next section.

Effects of Petroleum Conservation

Policy Case

The reduced automobile fuel consumption

estimates for this policy case derive from four

basic policies:

1.

2.

3.

4.

Higher fuel-economy standards (4o mpg

by 2000),

Fuel-economy minimum (ban on autos

with fuel efficiency under 21 mpg after

1985),

Excise tax on fuel-inefficient autos (gasguzzler tax of up to $3,856 after 1985),

and

Increased gasoline tax (an additional 18

cents per gallon over the Base Case in

2000).

The effects of these policies would be substantial. As shown in table 50, auto fuel consumption in 1985 would be reduced to 4.6 MMBD,

about 5 percent less than in the Base Case. By

2000, automobile fuel consumption would be

down to 3.4 MMBD or 29 percent below the

Base Case. These savings would be achieved

without a major reduction in auto VMT—only

3 percent. ’ The fuel-economy of the average car

in 2000 would be nearly 21/2 times that of its

1975 counterpart.
122 ● Changes in the Future Use and Characteristics of the Automobile Transportation System

Table 50.—Automobile Energy Demand, Petroleum Conservation Case

Petroleum Rationing

Actual Base Casea Conservation Case Case

1975 1985 2000 1985 2000 2000

Automobile VMT (trillion). .

Diesel penetration (percent

of new car sales) . . . . . . .

1.03

(b)

1.43

10

1.80

25

1.42

25

1.74

60

1.53

{d)

New car fuel economy

(mpg)

EPA standard@) . . . . . . . .

Attained— EPA certification value. . . . . . . .

Attained—actual driving

None

15.6

14.0

27.5

28.5

23.2

27.5

29.4

25.0

27.5

31.5

25.6

40.0

40.0

34.0

(d)

(d)

(d)

Fleet fuel economy (mpg)

Attained— EPA certification value. . . . . . . .

Attained—actual driving

15.1

13.6

24.0

19.4

28.5

24.6

24.8

20.3

37.6

32.1e)

(d)

(d)

Annual auto fuel

consumption

Billions of gallons. ... , .

MMBD equivalent . . . . . .

Percent of domestic

consumption . . . . . . . .

76.0

5.0

30.6

73.9

4.8

23.9

73.3

4.8

21.4

70.1

4.6

23.1

51.7

3.4

16.2

45.8

3.0

14.6

Effects of Conservation Policies

This analysis focuses on four individual

policies, each designed to promote greater fuel

conservation by the automobile system. The

four considered are:

Also shown in table 50 are the results of the

analysis of long-term, mandatory rationing.

This policy, which would be implemented

gradually between 1985 and 2000 to control the

allocation of auto fuels between diesel and gasoline autos, is discussed later. Compared to the

Petroleum Conservation Policy Case, rationing

could reduce auto fuel consumption to 3.0

MMBD in 2000, or 6 gallons per week per car.

The table indicates that auto fuel consumption

in 2000 might be only 14.6 percent of total

domestic consumption; however, if the situation

Higher fuel-economy standards, which

represent a strengthening and extension of

the present EPCA policy,

Increased gasoline taxes to raise the price

of gasoline and thereby discourage unnecessary driving,

Free-market pricing and deregulation to

let petroleum prices rise as supply

decreases, thereby providing additional

disincentives to automobile use, and

Rationing, either as a short-term response

1.

2.

3.

4.

were severe enough to warrant rationing, other

sectors would likely be forced to reduce their

consumption more than anticipated here.

Additional effects of this policy case relate to

the transition to alternate energy sources. It is

believed that in 2000, alternate fuel utilization

might reach 3.75 MMBD (as opposed to the 2.75

MMBD envisioned for the Base Case). Up to

11.5 million electric vehicles might be on the

road; they would account for approximately 5

percent of the VMT. These and other effects are

explored further under the separate policy

discussions which follow.

to an embargo or as a long-term measure

to impose a ceiling on consumption of

motor fuel.

Higher Fuel-Economy Standards

Imposition of higher fuel-economy standards

for automobiles is an important policy option to
Ch. 5—Energy Issues, Policies, and Findings ● 123

counterbalance the projected growth in automobile travel between now and 2000. The automobile fleet traveled about 1.07 trillion vehicle

miles in 1976. Base Case projections indicate

that by 1985 auto travel will increase to 1.43

trillion vehicle miles and by 2000 to 1.80 trillion

vehicle miles. This growth will have important

implications on the magnitude of future auto

fuel consumption and on the merits of further

increases beyond the 1985 EPCA fuel-economy

standards.

In 1976, automobiles consumed 5.2 MMBD

of fuel. In 1985, it is expected that consumption

will have fallen slightly to 4.8 MMBD, Assuming that the current EPCA new car standard of

27.5 mpg for 1985 remains in effect until 2000,

auto fuel consumption would also be 4.8

MMBD. However, if the standard were raised

gradually to 35 mpg (as in Base Case B) or to 40

mpg (as in the Petroleum Conservation Case),

auto fuel consumption could drop to 4.2 and 3.4

MMBD, respectively, assuming the appropriate

supporting policies are also instituted, Each of

the higher mpg levels assumes a higher penetration of diesels into the market. The Petroleum

Conservation Case assumes higher fuel and excise taxes and an mpg floor; it also assumes that

5 percent of the VMT will be electric cars.

However, the magnitude of the additional

savings to be achieved by further raising the

EPCA standard tend to have a decreasing value

as automobile fuel efficiency improves. For example, for a motorist traveling 10,000 miles annually, shifting from a 12-mpg car to a 27.5-

mpg car will save 470 gallons per year. A shift

from a 27.5-mpg car to a 40-mpg car saves only

114 gallons. Moreover, the incremental cost of

achieving these fuel-economy improvements

may increase. However, when consideration is

given to the projected growth in fleet auto

travel, higher fuel-economy standards can still

produce meaningful savings. It is well recognized that there are practical limitations on continuing fuel-economy improvements. It is not

known what the maximum auto fuel efficiency

could be, but improvements up to 35 mpg and

eventually up to 40 mpg by the year 2000, are

thought possible. g Several cars listed in EPA’s

1978 Gas Mileage Guide attain over 35 mpg,

and at least three makes could meet a 40-mpg

standard. 9

Under current EPCA standards, the total fuel

consumed by automobiles is expected to start

declining slowly in a few years, as the fuel

economy of the fleet as a whole begins to offset

the growth in VMT. Just how soon the peak will

be reached and how much motor vehicle fuel

consumption will then decline depends, in part,

on the fuel-economy standards imposed on light

trucks. Light-truck sales, which were 15 percent

of auto sales in 1965, rose to 31 percent of auto

sales in 1976. The concern is that many households may be substituting lightweight trucks for

automobiles. To the extent that this is the case,

fuel-economy gains achieved by shifting to

more energy-efficient autos may be offset by the

sales of lightweight trucks. Standards for light

trucks go into effect for the 1979 model year and

have been established for the 1980 and 1981

model years. 10

Thus, under current EPCA standards, automobile fuel consumption could remain within

the range of 4 to 5 MMBD through the year

2000. To bring consumption down further,

more stringent fuel-economy standards would

be necessary. These higher standards would

have the effect of accelerating the present trend

toward production and purchase of the smaller

compact and subcompact automobiles, some of

which can already achieve 40 mpg. However,

there are factors that could limit this trend. One

is the willingness of automobile owners to

switch to smaller cars, which may have less

comfort, performance, and utility than vehicles

now in use. Another potential limiting factor is

the ability of the automobile industry to respond. The capital requirements to accomplish

the conversion to smaller, more fuel-efficient

cars are large and may pose a threat to the continued viability of one or two domestic manufacturers.

An additional fuel-economy policy would be

to ban the sale of any car that did not meet a

specified minimum mpg. This would save more

arcis, ‘ Final Rules
124 ● Changes in the Future Use and Characteristics of the Automobile Transportation System

fuel than the current EPCA standards alone and

would force an earlier shift away from large

fuel-inefficient cars. Proponents of the ban

argue that the expected increase in gasoline price

would not by itself induce new car purchasers to

buy more efficient vehicles and that stronger

measures are needed. They also contend that the

inconvenience of reduced size would be relatively slight. Most vehicles on the road today are

oversized, given the low average occupancy. In

addition, most trunk and cargo space is normally empty.

Opponents of the mpg floor fear that this

measure would abolish the “family-sized” car

needed by large families. They argue that the

number of cars eliminated is relatively small

(depending on where the floor is set), that the

fuel savings would not be appreciable, and that

persons who today own large, inefficient cars

would be encouraged to keep them even longer.

Gasoline Taxes

Since the fuel economy of new cars is already

mandated by EPCA, an increase in motor fuel

taxes would serve mainly to reduce consumer

demand for fuel. Consumers would react by

buying more efficient new cars, by scrapping

older cars sooner, by driving less, or by carpooling or using transit where available. The effectiveness of additional gasoline taxes depends

on how large they are and when they are implemented. The current taxes on gasoline range

from 9 to 14 cents, depending upon the State.

They are intended as revenue-raisers, rather

than gas-savers.

Several factors could limit the effectiveness of

a gasoline tax increase. First, even a tax increase

as large as the 50 cents originally proposed in

the National Energy Plan, if implemented

gradually over a 10-year period, would produce

only moderate annual increases in real gasoline

prices. Small incremental price increases are not

seen as serious deterrents to gasoline consumption, particularly in a period in which incomes

may be rising as fast as the price of gasoline.

Second, doubling the price of fuel would raise

the total cost per mile of driving by only about

20 percent. (See figure 27. ) Third, over time the

increasing fuel efficiency of the average car will

compensate for the higher fuel costs, To be effective, a tax increase would have to be large

and immediate. 11

There are disadvantages associated with high

gasoline taxes. They constrain mobility. They

are inflationary and regressive. They remove

large sums of money from the economy. They

produce no incentive for producers to expand

supplies. To alleviate some of these undesirable

impacts, tax rebates have been proposed.

The first major consumer benefit expected of

rebates is compensation for the regressiveness of

the tax. The success of this would depend upon

how the rebates are made and how quickly they

are offered. In addition, rebates could put back

into the economy the billions of dollars removed by the tax (close to $40 billion could be

removed by a 50-cent-per-gallon tax on automobile driving alone). It is also thought that

rebates could make the tax more politically acceptable. Finally, it is believed that any increase

in driving caused by the refund would be negligible, since the change in total income caused

by the rebates would be relatively small.

The extent to which aggregate gasoline consumption and automobile travel can be reduced

by gasoline price increases is difficult to measure

since consumer reaction to higher gas prices has

been tested only in a limited range. The data

that are available indicate that small increases in

the price of gasoline are ineffective in achieving

significant reductions in VMT and, therefore, in

fuel consumption. The analysis carried out in

the Petroleum Conservation Case indicates that

the 10-cent gas tax would produce a decline in

total VMT of about 3.2 percent from the Base

Case. This assumes a price elasticity of – .22,

which is an indication that, once discretionary

travel is eliminated through increases in gasoline

price, further reductions will be more and more

difficult to achieve. 12 Table 51 shows three recent assessments of the projected gasoline savings that could be realized from the gasoline tax

program proposed in the original National Energy Plan.

The penetration of electric vehicles into the

auto fleet by the year 2000 would also serve to

reduce liquid fuel consumption. Since it is

—

‘ ‘U.S. Congress, Oftice of Technology Assessment, A) Iulyszs (>j

the Prclp(>scd NatIo)IL~l Et~erg,y PIUN (Washington, D. C.: U.S. Government Printing Oftice, August 1977), p. 90.

“SRI, p. 1-13.
o

80

60

40

20

0

Ch. 5—Energy Issues, Policies, and Findings ● 125

Figure 27. —Cost of Operating a Suburban-Based Automobile

(in current dollars)

f

. 20

Other

Parking, tolls, etc.

.., .,,,. .

. . . . . . . .

Insurance

,. “r

&~< .

60 62 64 66

..

, .; IA, .*-

..,

68 70 72 74

Table 51 .—Projected Gasoline Savings Under the

National Energy Plan Standby Gasoline Tax

(thousand barrels per day)

76

1980 1985 1990
126 ● Changes in the Future Use and Characteristics of the Automobile Transportation System

assumed that electricity is not taxed under the

Petroleum Conservation Case, VMT by gasoline-powered vehicles would be reduced both

because of electric-vehicle use and because of

the effects of the gasoline tax.

Imposition of a gasoline tax would also spur

the production and sale of alternative fuels. In

the Base Case, shale oil products (which are

assumed to be exempt from taxes) are expected

to become competitive with natural crude oil

products by 1985. Coal-derived liquids would

become competitive in about 1995. The effect of

additional gasoline taxes would be to move forward the dates at which shale oil and coal liquids become competitive to 1982 and 1985, respectively. Alcohol and gasohol would become

competitive somewhat earlier.

As the after-tax price of gasoline approaches

the price of alternative fuels, the reluctance to

invest in alternative fuel plants would probably

diminish. On the other hand, environmental

regulations and water availability will become

increasingly important constraints. The net effect of improved price competitiveness created

by a gasoline tax could raise total alternate fuel

production levels up to 3.75 MMBD by the year

2000, about 35 percent above the Base Case projection of 2,75 MMBD.

Free-Market Pricing

The existing Federal ceilings on the price of

gasoline are a few cents above current market

prices. Free-market pricing would remove these

ceilings. As petroleum demand grows and supplies become scarcer, the price would rise to

progressively higher equilibrium points. It is

believed that higher prices would reduce consumer demand and provide an incentive for producers to expand supplies by searching for new

sources or by continuing to pump oil out of

wells as they become less profitable.

Photo Credit U S Department Of Energy
Ch. 5—Energy Issues, Policies, and Findings . 127

Allowing the gasoline market to seek its own

unimpeded price level would mean abandoning

the present Federal Government policy of regulating petroleum prices. Under the Emergency

Petroleum Allocation Act of 1973, a four-tier

price system was established. The lowest prices

(first tier) apply to “old oil, ” defined as oil from

existing wells up to the levels that were produced in the base year of 1975. The next lowest

prices (second tier) apply to “new oil, ” defined

as oil produced from wells drilled since 1975 or

oil obtained from existing wells in excess of 1975

production levels. The next higher prices (third

tier) apply to oil from stripper wells, which are

wells that produce no more than 10 barrels per

day. During the fall of 1977, Congress established a fourth price tier to be applied to

Alaskan oil. This sets the price of Alaskan oil at

the price of imported oil (including the price of

entitlements) and makes Alaskan oil the highest

priced domestic source.

This pricing scheme for oil was designed with

two major objectives in mind: to keep the price

of oil down, thereby protecting the consumer

from higher prices and limiting profit levels of

oil producers, and to encourage exploration for

and production of oil from domestic oil sources.

The need to protect consumers is based on the

recognition that oil prices on the world market

are set by the OPEC nations and that these

prices are considerably greater than the cost of

producing oil from wells that existed before the

fourfold price increase of oil in 1974. This is the

rationale for the distinction between “old oil”

and “new oil” in the existing oil price regulations. It is recognized, however, that keeping

prices low encourages consumption.

Deregulation of oil prices would preserve the

second objective of present oil-pricing policy,

encouragement of domestic exploration. However, it would conflict with the objective of consumer protection and reduction of high profit

levels to domestic oil producers who are able to

obtain oil at low cost from existing wells.

Opposition to extending the market approach

has developed on several grounds. First, the

price set by OPEC does not reflect the normal

market equilibrium price nor does it have any

relation to the cost of production. Secondr expert opinion varies widely on whether freeing

oil prices from all controls would yield signifi -

cant additional supply from new and existing

sources. Third, there are questions about the extent of economic disruption that might be

caused by decontrol. The resulting higher prices

would be a heavy economic burden on auto-dependent people with low and moderate incomes.

Rationing

The two approaches to fuel conservation discussed above are based on the premise that

drivers will use less fuel because it costs more.

Rationing is a mandatory approach that places a

limitation on the amount of fuel allocated to a

vehicle or a driver. Some rationing approaches

would allow high fuel users to be able to purchase additional gasoline, but at significantly

greater cost.

The plan proposed by the Ford Administration would have allowed users to purchase up to

a specified amount of gasoline at the normal

price, A large tax of 50 cents or more would be

assessed on additional amounts purchased.

Drivers not requiring their full quota of untaxed

gas could sell the rights to this gas to other

drivers. The plan of the Carter Administration

would allow the transfer of ration rights, but

would place an absolute ceiling on the total

amount of gasoline available to all automobile

drivers. Special classes of users and trucks

would receive larger quotas. 14

If a rationing plan limited individual vehicles

or drivers to specified quotas, motorists could

compensate in several ways. It is believed that

the primary response would be a shift to more

fuel-efficient automobiles in order to maintain

normal travel patterns. Some drivers might also

respond in other ways to conserve fuel—by

shifting to carpools or by eliminating certain

trips, either altogether or by shifting to transit.

The exact nature of these responses and any inconvenience to the motoring public would depend upon how the rationing was carried out,

the extent to which special exceptions or user

classes were permitted, and the rate at which the

ceiling was lowered. Ideally, the ceiling would

be lowered at a measured rate, designed to give

consumers adequate notice to purchase more

fuel-efficient cars and avoid the consequences of

a fuel limitation.
128 . Changes in the Future Use and Characteristics of the Automobile Transportation System

A rationing program would have different effects on each segment of the population. For example, rural dwellers typically drive longer

distances than urban dwellers. Thus, farmers

would probably suffer more than office workers, unless exceptions were built into the administration of the rationing program, Moreover,

owners of large, fuel-inefficient cars would be

more severely affected than owners of fuelefficient cars. Figure 28 shows the effect o n

mobility by trip purpose of a rationing plan that

limits households to 10 gallons of gasoline per

car per week. If the household were using a 27-

mpg car, mobility would not be significantly affected. However, a household using a 17.6-mpg

car would have to cut back sharply on trips

(probably nonwork trips) or use public transit

to get to work.

Photo Credit U S Department o/ Energy

Under the Base Case assumptions, the unconstrained fuel demand of the Nation as a whole

would rise substantially, as would the need for

imported petroleum. In 1985, imports would account for 50 percent of domestic consumption.

In 2000, imports would amount to 68 percent,

assuming that that amount of oil was available

on the world market. If, after 1985, imports

were restricted by policy to 50 percent]5 of consumption, allowable imports would fall to 7.o

MMBD. Maximum consumption would be limited to 14 MMBD, instead of 22.4 MMBD if demand were unconstrained. (See figure 29. ) If the

burden of this reduction fell equally on all sectors of the economy, total automobile petroleum consumption would be restricted to 3.0

“The 50-percent level IS arbitrary and wa~ ch{~sen t{~r Illustrative

purp[)ws t}nl}.
24

20

16

12

8

4

Miles Driven Annually, by Family Income and Trip Purpose

Distance household can travel if car

Earning a living

2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16

Family income ($000 year)

MMBD in 2000. This would amount to an allocation of about 6 gallons per week per car,

assuming a fleet of 148 million vehicles. The

Base Case assumes the average car would require 9.6 gallons per week in 2000; current

usage is estimated at 15 gallons per week.

A rationing program implemented gradually

over a long period would allow petroleum users

to change their automobile ownership and usage

patterns to minimize adverse impacts. Most of

the responses previously outlined would be

adopted in varying degrees by different population segments. This is not to say that mobility

would remain unrestricted, since there would

not be the freedom of choice that exists today.

Overall VMT would drop by about 15 percent

from the Base Case to 1.53 trillion miles per

year. It is probable that the long-term impacts

would be severe for- travel-dependent industries.

Businesses such as resorts and drive-in restaurants might survive short-term disruptions but

not a long-term erosion of their revenue source.

If the rationing system involved white market

(transferable) coupons, the wealthier segments

SOURCE Sydec EEA p IV-62

of society would find their mobility less restricted than other groups. Also, with a white

market, there would be a transfer of income

from high fuel users to low fuel users. Compared to the impacts of deregulation, consumers

and not producers would benefit from the

higher price. However, without the added income, producers would not have the incentive

to expand supplies.

Effects of Transition to

Alternate Energy Sources

The need to make a transition from petroleum-based fuels to alternate energy sources for

all sectors has become increasingly evident in recent years. The demand for petroleum has

grown so great worldwide that what were once

thought of as very large reserves are now

viewed as inadequate to meet demand —possibly as early as the 1980’s or 1990’s. Other projections (based on the economic viewpoint that

the cost of petroleum becomes prohibitively

high because of scarcity) conclude that the point
130 ● Changes in the Future Use and Characteristics of the Automobile Transportation System

5

4

1

Figure 29.—Effects of Gasoline Rationing on Automobile Fuel Consumption

.

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1976 1985 2000

Assumptions

— Limit if rationing is imposed

. Fuel consumption of light-duty trucks would also be limited

i n same proportion as cars.

During that period, the demand for petroleum by automo-
gressive conservation policies were initiated,

they would not solve the long-term problem,

but simply postpone it a few years. Since transition to alternate energy sources will take even

longer to accomplish, efforts to start the transition must be undertaken soon if these resources

are to be available when the supply of petroleum eventually begins to decline.

There are a number of different energy

resources that can be used to produce fuels similar to gasoline or diesel fuel, and there are a

number of other fuels that can potentiality

replace gasoline or diesel fuel for- powering

automobiles. Roughly, these alternate energy

sources fall into four categories:

• Synthetic liquid fueIs (synfuels): These are

liquid fuels that are chemically similar to

crude petroleum and that can be refined

into automobile fuels. They can be derived

from either coal or oil shale. Using these

would require little or no change in the

automobile fuel distribution system or in

engine technology.

• Alcohol fuels: Alcohol (primarily ethanol

or methanol ) can be used in pure form or i n

blends of up to 20 percent or more with

gasoline. Ethanol is currently widely used

as a blend (2o percent) in Brazil, and is

available in scattered Midwestern U.S.

locations. Methanol requires large-scale

production facilities. Ethanol, which can be

produced in smaller scale plants, is most

easily obtained from biomass (i. e., plants,

grain, or municipal and agricultural

wastes). Alcohol fuels currently cost more

than gasoline, but have a higher octane

rating. Blended fuels require no changes in

auto engines, but neat (pure) alcohol

would. Alcohol tends to improve engine efficiency (miles per gallon equivalent) and

burns cleaner than gasoline. Principal considerations include price and availability,

and the need for special storage and distribution facilities to ensure against water

contamination which affects the combustion process. (Chapter 10, Technology,

contains more background information. )

● Electricity: A number of U.S. and foreign

automobile manufacturers are doing research and development on electrics. Major

Ch. 5—Energy Issues, Policies, and Findings ● 131

problems with the current state of electric

automobiles include poor performance

compared to conventionally powered cars,

high initial cost, and limited capacity to

store energy.

Longer term alternatives: A number of different automobile fuel systems have been

proposed for the longer term (post-2000),

including hydrogen-powered cars, [uel-cellpowered automobiles, and the use of

blended fuels based on hydrogen, such as

hydrazine. Generally, these technologies

are still in their infancy.

Estimates of alternative fuel production and

sales for 1985 and 2000 are inherently speculative because there are few facilities now in

operation on a commercial scale. Table 52 summarizes several recent production estimates for

2000. The Base Case assumed that alternative

fuel production would be about 2.75 MMB D

under current policies. While there are high

rewards from producing synthetic gasolines

from coal or shale oil, the price today is far from

competitive with conventional gasoline, and the

environmental risks are of great concern. Shalederived liquids would become price competitive

by about 1985 and coal-derived fuels around

1995. The Base Case also assumes that alcohol

and gasohol would be part of the 2.75 MMBD

(or equivalents) of liquid fuels.

The cost, performance, and market acceptance of electric vehicles are highly dependent on

the state of battery technology. At present, battery technology is not adequate for large-scale

application in electric vehicles. Although the

lead-acid system is readily available and is

already in actual use, its high weight, low

specific power, and low specific energy sharply

limit vehicle range between recharges. Improved batteries will be needed to make the electric vehicle competitive with conventional automobiles in performance and cost.

Table 53 presents several projections of the

market penetration of electric and hybrid vehicles in 1985 and 2000. The variation in the range

of estimates is indicative of the high degree of

uncertainty associated with the development

and successful commercialization of advanced

battery systems. For this study, it is estimated

that the size of the electric vehicle fleet will be
132 ● Changes in the Future Use and Characteristics of the Automobile Transportation System

Table 52.—Estimates of Synthetic Fuel Production in 2000

(MMBD)

Coal liquids Oil shale Methanol Total

Stanford Research Institute . . . . 2.0 4.0 4.0 10.0

MIT Workshop on Alternate

Energy Strategies. . . . . . . . . . . 0-1.3 2.0 — 2.0-3.3

Department of Transportation. . . 0.9 3.4 . 4.3

Department of Interior . . . . . . . . . 0.7 2.0 — 2.7

EXXON . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . — — — 0.5

Sydec/EEA. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.75 2.0 — 2.75

negligible in 1985. By the year 2000, it is projected that, with the incentive of policies such as

those in table 49, the size of the electric vehicle

fleet could fall midway between the high and

low estimates of table 53—or about 11.5 million. Estimates of hybrid-vehicle penetration are

speculative. The currently limited Federal support for all-electric vehicles is an indication that

projections of hybrid-vehicle penetration may

be overly optimistic.

Comparisons of the relative efficiency of conventional automobiles with battery-electric- and

hybrid-vehicles are difficult because size and

performance differ significantly in current designs. For example, if present conventionally

powered autos were designed for reduced performance comparable with currently available

electric and hybrid vehicles, their energy consumption in terms of Btu’s per mile would be

quite similar. However, most of the potential

electric- and hybrid-vehicles are somewhat

smaller than today’s diesel and gasoline cars and

hence show better energy utilization. (See table

54, )

Table 53.– Projections of Electric Vehicle Penetration

1980 1985 1990

Projection of new electric car sales

ERDA —transportation energy

conservation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22,500 500,000 2 million

ERDA—market oriented program

planning study. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . — 10/0 21 0/0

Math-Tech, Inc. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40 4,000 8,800

Projection of electric vehicle fleet

ERDA—transportat ion energy

conservation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22,400 1 million 18 million

ERDA—market oriented program

planning study. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . — 45,000 5.2 million

Math-Tech, Inc. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40 9,000 66,400

Projection of electric-hybrid vehicle fleet

Stanford Research Institute. . . . . . . . . . . . — 75,000 500,000
Ch. 5—Energy Issues, Policies, and Findings ● 133

Table 54.—Comparison of Fuel Economies

Fuel economy’

Vehicle type kWh/mi Mpg Btu/mi

All electric Lead-acid 2-passenger . . . . . . 0.44 — 1,502

Lead-acid 4-passenger . . . . . . 0.79 . 2,696

Nickel-zinc 4-passenger . . . . . 0.51 — 1,741

Lithium-sulfur 4-passenger. . . 0.45 — 1,536

Hybrid ICE/electricbLead-acid 4-passenger . . . . . . 0.625 29 2,786

Nickel-zinc 4-passenger . . . . . 0.45 32 2,247

Sodium-sulfur 4-passenger. . . 0.476 27 2,470

Conventional ICE. . . . Subcompact. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . — 34.3 3,644

Compact . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . — 28.1 4,448

Diesel Subcompact . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . — 42.9 3,235

Compact . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . — 35.1 3,954

IMPACTS

The primary effects of the policies discussed

in this chapter will be conservation of petroleum

or development of alternate energy sources. The

impacts, defined here as secondary consequences not directly related to policy objectives,

will fall in the areas of environment, safety,

mobility, cost to the consumer, and capital requirements for the automobile and fuel industries. Not all of these impacts are adverse. There

are some important secondary benefits from

conserving petroleum and making a transition

to new energy sources. This section describes

the major impacts that could result from pursuing the energy policies discussed above.

Environment

Impacts of Petroleum Conservation

In the aggregate, automobile emissions are influenced by three principal factors: emission

standards, engine types, and vehicle miles traveled. Since none of the fuel conservation policies

considered here assumes any change in automobile emission standards, the air quality impacts

of conservation will result solely from engine

characteristics and vehicle miles traveled. Of

these, VMT is expected to have the more powerful influence.

Analysis of the Petroleum Conservation

Case, which does not include gasoline rationing,

shows very little difference from the Base Case

in terms of aggregate automobile emissions.

With two exceptions, automobile emissions will

be reduced in 1985 and 2000, but only slightly.

Table 55 shows the expected national aggregates

of four automobile emissions in 1985 and 2000,

with and without the adoption of Petroleum

Conservation Case policies.

Table 56 is an analysis of the factors that will

influence automobile emissions in the PetroIeum

Conservation Case. For the three criteria

pollutants (CO, HC, and NO,), there would be

reductions of 8 to 10 percent in automobile

emissions, compared to the Base Case. Nearly

all of these reductions are attributable to the

decrease in automobile travel brought about by

energy conservation measures.

Policies in the Petroleum Conservation Case

are expected to lead to a much higher proportion of diesel automobiles in the fleet, as much

as 60 percent of new car sales by 2000 (compared to 25 percent in the Base Case). Because

diesel engines emit more particulate matter than

gasoline engines, the impact of greater diesel use

by 2000 would be higher levels of particulates—

about 384,000 tons in 2000 because of the high
134 • Changes in the Future Use and Characteristics of the Automobile Transportation System

Table 55.—Air Quality Impacts of Petroleum Conservation Case

(million tons per year)

1985 2000

Petroleum Petroleum

Automobile emissions Base Case Conservation Base Case Conservation

Carbon monoxide. . . . . . . . . . . . . 32.6 32.3 27.3 25.1

Hydrocarbons . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.5 3.4 2.9 2.7

Nitrogen oxides . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.7 2.7 2.9 2.7

Total suspended particulatesb . . 0.077 0.140 0.363 0.384

Table 56.—Factors Influencing Change in Automobile Emissions for the Petroleum Conservation Case

Automobile emissions in 2000 (million tons)

Carbon H ydro- Nitrogen

monoxide carbons oxides Particulates a

Base Case. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27.30 2.94 2.90 0.363

Decreased VMT . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . – 2.18 – 0.23 – 0.24 —

Increased diesels. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . – 0.06 — + 0.021

Petroleum Conservation Case . . . . . . . . . . . . 25.12 2.65 2.66 0.384

Net difference . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . – 2.18 – 0.29 – 0.24 + 0.021

Percent difference. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . – 8% – 10% – 8% + 6%

use of diesels in contrast to 363,000 tons with

only moderate diesel use.

In contrast with other petroleum conservation measures, gasoline rationing would have a

major beneficial impact on air quality. If gasoline and diesel fuel consumption were restricted

to about 6 gallons per car per week by rationing

in 2000, VMT would drop nearly 15 percent

from Base Case projections. The impact, in

terms of automobile emissions, would be corresponding decreases in pollutants from automobile exhaust. This would be at least double,

and perhaps triple, the reductions expected from

any other combination of petroleum conservation policies.

Impacts of Transition to Alternate Energy Sources

The use of electric vehicles to replace gasoline

or diesel vehicles would reduce mobile source

emissions but would cause some rise in powerplant emissions within the region. Table 57

shows the per-mile emissions of gasoline and

diesel vehicles in the year 2000 and the emissions from a coal- or oil-fired generating plant

used to supply power for an electric vehicle for 1

mile of travel. As this table shows, the use of

electric vehicles necessitates a trade-off of environmental impacts. Vehicle emissions in

downtown areas will be reduced, but emissions

of NOX and S02 from powerplants within the

region will increase. The benefit of trading off

CO and HC for NOX and S02

, would have to be

assessed on a regional basis, taking into consideration the other emission sources in the region.

On the whole, however, it may prove technologically easier and economically sounder to

control emissions from one or more stationary

sources than thousands of mobile sources,

The two most promising synthetic liquid fuels

for automobiles come from oil shale and liquefaction of coal. Extensive development of either

of these synfuels poses serious environmental

problems in the regions where processing and

refining facilities are located. Some of these impacts can be reduced or mitigated by careful

control of the processing plants and by judicious

site selection.
Ch, 5—Energy Issues, Policlis, and Findings • 135

Table 57.— Electric Vehicle Emissions Compared to Gasoline Vehicle Emissions in 2000

— .

Electric vehicle powerplant emissions’

Gasoline vehicle emissions Coal-fired Oil-fired

(composite vehicle) (gm/mi) (gm/mi) (gm/mi)

co. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.78 0.012-0.021 .0001

HC . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.461 0.004-0.007 .0001

NOY

b 

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.139 1.51-2.66 0.649-1.14

S02 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.13 2.597-4.57 1.731-3.02

The air pollutants produced by a coal liquefaction plant include hydrogen sulfide, ammonia, particulate matter, hydrocarbons, sulfur

dioxide, carbon monoxide, and nitrogen dioxide. Other trace materials, such as polycyclic

organic matter and heavy metals, may also be

present in waste streams. The major sources of

these emissions are coal impurities (either offgases or their treatment wastes), fugitive emissions from leaking equipment, airborne particulate from coal handling, and exhaust from

combustion of coal.

Large amounts of water are used in the coal

liquefaction process for product purification,

cooling, steam generation, and sanitary systems. Water demand for a full-scale liquefaction

plant is on the order of 50,000 gallons per day.

This water, ultimately discharged as waste, requires treatment to remove suspended particulate, ammonia, hydrogen sulfide, trace metals,

tars, oils, and phenols.

Two other environmental characteristics of

liquefaction are of particular concern: the inherently hazardous nature of organic compounds generated in this process, and the environmental impacts specific to the use of liquefied coal products. Process and waste streams

may contain certain organic compounds of a

toxic or carcinogenic nature that are hazardous

to workers. Plant layout can reduce or eliminate

some of these compounds from waste streams.

The remaining carcinogenic and toxic organic

compounds can be eliminated from gaseous

emissions, water effluents, and solid wastes by

oxidation and decomposition.

Many of the organic liquids derived from coal

are both carcinogenic and toxic (as is natural

crude oil), and it is not expected that the products of liquefaction can be rendered wholly inert. Rather, elaborate and rigorous procedures

must be developed to ensure that workers and

handlers of the liquefaction products are protected from inhalation, skin exposure, or ingestion of these substances. Use of coal-derived

fuels and feedstocks may produce new secondary pollution problems during subsequent processing or utilization.

Liquefaction produces a low-ash, low-sulfur

fuel that has a high nitrogen content. In fact, liquefaction of coal can actually increase the nitrogen content on a per-Btu basis. To avoid damaging the catalysts in the refinery, some of this

nitrogen must be removed before the fuel is

refined to gasoline. Unless denitrified, coalderived liquid gasoline used as a motor fuel can

result in higher emissions of nitrogen oxide than

gasoline refined from petroleum.

Coal liquids also contain a high proportion of

benzene, which has recently been recognized as

a carcinogen, Coal-derived gasoline typically

contains 5 to 10 percent benzene, in comparison

to about 2 percent in gasoline from petroleum.

Both EPA and the Occupational Safety and

Health Administration (OSHA) are expected to

issue regulations pertaining to exposure to

benzene in petroleum refining and gasoline

handling.

Shale oil can be produced by either of two

processes: surface retorting or underground (in

situ) processing. Surface processing is characterized by significant land disturbance in mining

operations, large volumes of spent shale, relatively high water use, and air and water emissions from retort operations. In situ processing
136 ● Changes in the Future Use and Characteristics of the Automobile Transportation System

minimizes these impacts but increases the potential for ground water contamination, aquifer

disruption, and subsidence or uplifting at the

surface.

Gaseous emissions are expected to be greater

for surface retorting of oil shale than for underground processing. The primary air pollutants

include hydrogen sulfide (which could either be

converted to elemental sulfur or the less harmful

sulfur oxide), particulate (which can be physically collected or contained), and hydrocarbons

(which can be contained or incinerated). Other

pollutants include ammonia, nitrogen oxides,

carbon monoxide, and toxic trace elements.

Control systems are available for these pollutants, but their efficiency and dependability in

these specific applications have not been demonstrated.

Many of these emissions do not occur with in

situ processing. However, upgrading, refinement, and storage of the product are steps common to both processes and similar impacts will

occur. One potential impact specific to in situ

processing is the production and release of gaseous pollutants from underground retorting.

The effectiveness of techniques to minimize formation of gaseous pollutants and to contain and

treat them will not be known until the technology of in situ processing has undergone additional field testing.

The amount of water required in shale processing may constrain the exploitation of major

oil shale deposits in arid regions. The principal

deposits of oil shale are found in Colorado,

Utah, and Wyoming, where water supply is limited. Extensive development of these deposits,

using present mining and surface-retorting

methods, could cause unacceptable burdens on

the water supply and could cause economic

hardship for farming and industry in these

areas. Comparatively, in situ processing requires less water for shale processing than surface retorting and refining.

Water effluents from shale processing plants

are also an environmentaI hazard. With surface

retorting, spent shale leachate, runoff, and contaminated retort water can contaminate local

water supplies if not properly collected and

treated. Retort water, primarily composed of

water formed by combustion and pyrolysis but

including a small quantity of ground water, generally contains unacceptable

dissolved solids, ammonia,

and organic compounds.

concentrations of

hydrogen sulfide,

During in situ processing, backflood water

(natural ground water that reenters an in situ

retort after its development) becomes contaminated as it contacts the spent, or partially spent,

oil shale and newly exposed mineral materials.

In a similar way, Ieachate and runoff from surface-processed shale disposal areas occurs if the

shale is exposed to rain and snowfall. Laboratory studies of leaching retorted shale indicate

that inorganic solids, hydrocarbons, and toxic

trace elements may be present.

Site management and land reclamation are

important environmental concerns in the commercialization of oil shale. Oil shale mining

causes significant disruption of the land, both in

excavation and in disposing of the solid wastes

produced by shale processing. In surface retorting, these wastes—consisting mainly of spent

shale, mining debris, and shale fines—are

deposited above ground, where prevention of

leaching and contamination of water by organic

materials are major problems. With in situ

retorting, most of this waste is left underground, but special precautions must be taken

to avoid geological disturbance. Hydraulic and

explosive fracturing by in situ retorting can

cause physical disruption and cracking of strata.

There may also be severe disruption of adjacent

aquifers and subsidence or uplifting at the surface. Depending upon the proximity and structure of aquifers, drinking supplies from ground

water may be contaminated, or there may be

changes in the flow and storage characteristics

of aquifers. Subsidence at the surface, which

may not occur immediately, can damage buildings and roadways or affect options for subsequent land use.

Safety

The energy conservation policies in the Petroleum Conservation Case are expected, on the

whole, to have a beneficial impact on safety.

The reduction in automobile VMT brought

about by Petroleum Conservation Case policies

is expected to result in a proportionate reduction in automobile-related death and injury.

Thus, while the death and injury toll will con-
Ch. 5—Energy Issues, Policies, and Findings ● 137

tinue to rise through the period 1975-2000, the

increase is not projected to be as great as it

would be under Base Case conditions.

Enforcement of a national 55 mph speed limit,

intended primarily as an energy conservation

measure, will also result in decreases in automobile accidents—approximately 5 percent in

urban areas and 6 percent in rural areas. This

projected reduction is consistent with the

observed reductions in fatal accident involvements which have been attributed to the 55 mph

speed limit since 1974. In the Petroleum Conservation Case, the proportion of small cars in

the fleet is expected to grow to 90 percent by

1985, compared to 69 percent in the Base Case.

The higher proportion of small, and perhaps

less crashworthy, vehicles in the fleet could

have an adverse impact on safety.

Mobility

The conservation policies selected for the

Petroleum Conservation Case were those that

promised to reduce petroleum consumption by

automobiles without major adverse impacts on

mobility. The analysis supports this expectation. Under the Petroleum Conservation Case,

total automobile VMT is projected to drop less

than 1 percent from the Base Case level in 1985,

due primarily to adjustments in the gasoline tax

designed to keep the cost per mile of driving

constant. By 2000, the reduction in automobile

VMT is projected to be 3 percent below the Base

Case level, again due to increased gasoline

taxes. However, this reduction is not expected

to be proportionate for all types of driving.

There would be significant elimination or

shortening of automobile trips for shopping,

social, and recreational purposes. There would

also be slight VMT reductions as a result of

shifting to higher occupancy automobiles or to

transit for work trips.

The conditions of travel (e.g., congestion and

average travel speed) are expected to be virtually the same under the Base Case and the Petroleum Conservation Case, Travel speeds will be

slightly higher than under the Base Case, but

they will still be considerably lower than the

prevailing 1975 speeds. 19

Because of the policy of increased transit

funding, transit ridership is projected to increase—3 percent higher in 1985 and 8 percent

higher in 2000 compared to the Base Case. Some

of this increased ridership will be the result of

automobile drivers shifting to transit (primarily

for work trips), and the remainder will represent

new trips by the elderly, poor, and handicapped

because of improved transportation service.

Policies to promote the development and use

of alternate energy sources will have a generally

beneficial impact on mobility, particularly by

automobile, since they will contribute to alleviating the severity of the projected petroleum

shortfall. In fact, the preservation of automobility is the underlying reason for promoting a

transition program. However, the higher projected prices of all fuels will have a slight

dampening effect on automobile use.

Cost and Capital

Impacts of Petroleum Conservation

Under the Petroleum Conservation Case, the

assumed higher cost of fuel and increased gasoline taxes will combine to raise automobile operating costs slightly over Base Case levels in both

1985 and 2000 for all size classes. The magnitude of these cost increases would differ greatly

according to automobile size.

The total price (in 1975 dollars) for gasoline

(including taxes) is projected to be $0.777 per

gallon in 1985 for the Base Case and $0.907 per

gallon under Petroleum Conservation policies.

This would amount to an average increase of 12

percent in the fuel cost per mile of auto travel

This price increase ranges from under $0.03 per

mile for subcompacts to over $0.05 for standard

and large cars. For the year 2000, the price of

gasoline including taxes is projected to be $1.39

per gallon, compared to $1.21 per gallon in the

Base Case. This increase of $0.18 per gallon

represents a 1.5-percent rise in price- and adds

$0.04 per mile to the cost of driving a subcompact and up to $0.07 for large cars.
138 ● Changes in the Future Use and Characteristics of the Automobile Transportation System

The annual auto sales in 1985 are projected to

be only slightly lower (1.5 percent) than under

the Base Case. However, the mix of new car

sales changes dramatically from the present and

from 1985 Base Case projections. (See table 58. )

Under the Base Case, it is expected that 69 percent of the cars sold would be compacts or subcompacts (including small luxury cars). Under

the Petroleum Conservation Case, nearly 90

percent of the cars sold would be in these

classes. Cars now classified as standard and

intermediate would virtually disappear.

Under the Base Case, it was assumed that 18

percent of new car sales in 1985 would be imports. The Petroleum Conservation policies,

however, would create a strong demand for

fuel-efficient cars. To maintain 82 percent of the

market, U.S. manufacturers would have to shift

their product mix much more rapidly than in the

Base Case. Domestic small car production

would increase from 3.2 million in 1976 to 9.2

million by 1985 if the Petroleum Conservation

policies were in force.

While the volume of new car sales would not

be appreciably affected in the Petroleum Conservation Case, manufacturer’s revenues would

be somewhat lower than in the Base Case. Gross

revenue from sales in 1985 would be up about

$8 billion from 1975–approximately $4.5 billion less than the $12.5 billion increase expected

under Base Case conditions for 1985. As a percentage of 1975 sales, manufacturer’s gross revenue would be 20 percent higher under Petroleum

Conservation policies, compared to 32 percent

higher in the Base Case.

The Base Case projects a 10-percent penetration of the new car market by diesel automobiles in 1985. Under Petroleum Conservation

policies, manufacturers would be likely to emphasize diesels as a way to meet tighter fueleconomy standards. The fuel economy of diesels

would also make them attractive to consumers.

These factors could combine to boost diesel

sales to 25 percent of the new car market by

1985. Since diesels are assumed to sell at $100 to

$200 above gasoline-powered cars, the increase

in diesel sales could lead to an additional $100

million to $200 million in manufacturer’s revenues, compared with the Base Case.

Along with the projected decline in automobile sales and manufacturers’ revenues, the

capital requirements of the industry would increase. The Petroleum Conservation Case

would require additional capital expenditures

for retooling and changes in vehicle production

lines and would require writing off investments

in some current lines of intermediate and large

cars. The combination of increased capital requirements and the change to a less profitable

mix would severely strain the industry’s ability

to generate capital from internal sources. Further difficulty would be added by the introduction of electric vehicles, which would be viewed

as an entirely new economic venture that would

cut into the sales of gasoline-powered cars. Production of electric vehicles on a large scale

would be an essentially new product line for an

Table 58.—1985 New Car Sales Mix for the Petroleum Conservation Case

(thousands)

1985

1976 Base Case Petroleum Conservation

Model Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent

Subcompact . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,225 22 3,940 30 5,300 41

Compact. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,921 19 3,940 30 4,657 36

Intermediate . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,831 28 2,111 16 798 6

Standard. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,022 20 936 7 0 0

Small luxury. . . . . . . . . . . . . 506 5 1,196 9 1,569 12

Large luxury. . . . . . . . . . . . . 606 6 935 7 540 4

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10,111 13,058 12,891

NOTE Numbers may not add due to rounding

SOURCE Sydec/EEA, p IV.80
Ch. 5—Energy Issues, Policies, and Findings ● 1 3 9

industry still

line-powered

engaged in manufacturing gasocars, and would add considerably

to the industry’s capital requirements.

The combination of increased capital requirements, lower revenues and profits, intensified competition in the lower size classes, and

increased penetration of new engine technology

would place stress on the less profitable firms in

the industry and increase the likelihood that

they might suffer severe financial losses. Further, increasing small-car demand would encourage foreign producers to locate in the

United States, perhaps reducing the market

share of domestic manufacturers.

Impacts of Transition to Alternate Energy Sources

An estimate was made of the approximate

amount of capital required to develop alternative fuel industries capable of supplying 2.75

MMBD by 2000. This analysis was based on the

assumption that 2.0 MMBD would be produced

from shale oil and 0.75 MMBD from coal. This

estimate, however, is highly speculative because

of uncertainty about the costs of construction,

pollution abatement, and synfuel processing.

Furthermore, the ability of the petroleum industry to finance this level of investment will

depend on the success of the industry in generating cash flow from its previous investment.

A recent study by Stanford Research Institute zo estimated the capital costs of synfuel production facilities. Shale oil production of 2

MMBD would require 20 plants, each capable

of producing 100,000 barrels per day. These

plants are estimated to cost $823 million each,

or a total of $16.5 billion. Coal synthetic liquid

fuel production of 0.75 MMBD would require

approximately eight plants capable of producing 100,000 barrels per day. Costs for these

plants are estimated to be $1.3 billion each, or a

total of $10.4 billion. Thus, about $27 billion

would have to be invested between 1980 a nd

1995 to create an industry capable of producing

2.75 MMBD of synthetic fuels by 2000.

-’f; \l I)ic A\i)n, (’t d ] SU)lf)llfj(- 1 lql(fti Fli{’1. I)t~7’L,/(7~1)11[.)lf

,4 L,.1, +. ))1 t,tI t , ) f [ ‘I I tI. 111 F({( t( I I. prt~p.1 rod t or l-’ S Entlr~\’ I{ewarch

.:n[l [ )t’~(’loprment Adn71n]\t r<itlon, ERI)A 7b-12Q 2 ~ \lenlo I)drk,

C dlit $1<1 In t(>rndt l(~nal IUIY 1 ~70

To place the $27 billion in context, it is estimated that $116.5 billion will be invested by the

entire energy industry by 1985 and $207.8 billion will be invested by 1995. 21 Of this, $36.2

billion by 1985 and $47.4 billion by 2000 will be

invested by the petroleum industry for conventional fuel production. In 2000, energy investments will constitute approximately 32 percent

of fixed investment by all U.S. business. The

capital requirements for alternative fuels would

raise this to 35 percent.

The impact of changes in the mix of gasoline

and diesel fuel are important from the standpoint of the refining industry. It is projected that

petroleum conservation policies will result in

greater use of diesels, which would account for

about 10 percent of the motor fuel consumed in

1985 and almost 50 percent by 2000. The most

likely impact of this shift in fuel mix would be to

create pressures on the relative prices of refinery

products and on refinery product demands. The

premium price that has been paid for crudes

with high gasoline content would no longer

apply in a situation where rising diesel fuel consumption drives up the refinery demand for previously low-cost crudes with high kerosene and

distillate fuel content. As the proportion of

gasoline to diesel fuel decreases, the price of

diesel fuel relative to gasoline would rise due to

the increased allocation of total refinery costs to

diesel production. Also, shifts in relative prices

would probably result in shifts in markets for

the fuels. For example, lower cost gasoline could

become an attractive feedstock for petrochemicals, displacing distillate fuels.

Pressures on prices and on investment and

operating costs because of changes in auto fuel

mix might be offset by the extent to which the

fuel mix shift reduced the total demand by refineries for crude oil. The costs of crude oil inputs

may be a much more significant factor in total

refinery costs than the annualized capital investment costs. Thus, to the extent that the relatively higher fuel economy of diesels would not

result in increased travel demand, the increased

proportion of diesels in the fleet would result in

reduced crude oil requirements for refiners.

“lhlc]

\

Chapter 6.– ENVIRONMENT ISSUES, POLICIES, AND FINDINGS

Page

Summary ● . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .143

Background . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 144

Air Pollution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ........144

Other Environmental Problems . ............147

Present Policy ● . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .150

Issues . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 153

Policy Alternatives . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .154

Effects ● . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 156

Air Quality. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .........156

Other Environmental Effects . . . . . . . . . . .. ...164

Impacts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 166

Energy. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . , . ...........166

Safety. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .............167

Mobility . . . . . . . . . ........................188

Cost and Capital. . ........................170

Analysis of lndividual Policies . ...............170

Regional Standards . ................,.....171

Mobile-Stationary SourceTradeoff . .........171

Mandatory lnspection and Maintenance. . . . ..179

LIST OF TABLES

Table No. Page

59. Automobile Emissions and Air Quality-1975145

60. Estimated Number of People Subjected to

Traffic Noise . . . . . . ..................,...148

61. Median Noise Levels and Urban Traffic Mix. .148

62. Selected Laws Relating to Environmental

impacts of Automobiles and Highways. ... ..l5l

63. Policies for lmproved Environment Case ....155

64. Assumptions and Conditions for lmproved

Environment Case . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ..157

65. Projected Automobile Emissions for the

Improved Environment Case. . ..,..........159

Page

66. Analysis of Effects of lmproved Environment

Policies . . . . . . . . ........................159

67. Projected Violations ofAir QualityStandards,

Improved Environment Case. . .............164

88. Automobile Energy Demand, Improved

Environment Case . ......................167

69. Cost Effectiveness of Control Strategies for

N OX Emission in 2000. . ...................173

70. Electric-Vehicle Emissions Compared to

Gasoline-Vehicie Emissions, 2000..........175

71. State Motor Vehicle Inspection Programs ...180

72. lmpacts of Mandatory Testing and

Maintenance of Emissions Control Devices. .181

LIST OF FIGURES

Figure No, Page

30. Comparison of Automobile Emissions, Base

Case vs. improved Environment Case . ......158

31. Projected Emissions From All Sources,

1975-2000, improved Environment Policies.. .162

32. Population Exposed to Air Pollution,

improved Environment Case. . .............163

33. Auto Occupant Fatal and Injury Crashes

and Auto Property Damage Crashes, improved

Environment Case . ......................168

34. Cost-Effectiveness of NOX Control Strategies 173

35. Projected Carbon Monoxide Emissions for

Washington, Houston,and Chicago . .......176

36. Projected Hydrocarbon Emissions for

Washington, Houston,and Chicago . .......177

37. Projected NitrogenOxide Emissions for

Washington, Houston,and Chicago . .......178
ENVIRONMENT ISSUES,

POLICIES, AND FINDINGS

CHAPTER

0

SUMMARY

The environmental problems created by

widespread and intensive automobile use include air pollution, noise, disposal of solid

wastes, and water contamination. In addition,

the impacts of automobiles and highways on

communities, rural areas, parklands, and natural preserves are of concern, not only because of

possible harm to the physical environment but

also because of adverse social and economic

consequences.

Until recently, the amount of atmospheric

pollutants emitted by automobiles had been

growing each year. Emission controls required

by the 1970 Clean Air Act and its amendments

are helping to reverse this trend. Projections for

the year 2000—assuming compliance with the

1977 Clean Air Act amendments, but no other

automobile controls—show that automobile

emissions for the country as a whole will be

reduced from their current levels, even though

automobile travel is expected to grow by 75 percent. Carbon monoxide and hydrocarbon emissions from automobiles are projected to

decrease by about 60 percent. The reduction in

nitrogen oxide emissions will be smaller—about

30 percent. However, these attainments will still

leave the country far short of the air quality

goals specified in the Clean Air Act.

Automobiles are not the only source of air

pollution. Other transportation modes, industrial plants, power-generating facilities,

commercial establishments, and home heating

also contribute substantial amounts of pollutants to the atmosphere. While automobile

emissions are expected to represent a declining

share of pollutants from all sources between

now and 2000, the impacts of automobile use

will remain a major problem in urban areas.

Projections of regional air quality in 1985 and

2000 show that violations of the carbon monoxide and oxidant standards, though decreasing in

frequency, will still be common occurrences. In

2000, about 10 percent of the 247 Air Quality

Control Regions (AQCRs) in the United States

are expected to experience violations of the carbon monoxide standard. Violations of the standard for photochemical oxidants are expected in

almost 25 percent of the regions. Since these

violations will generally occur in the most

populous areas, the number of persons exposed

to hazardous concentrations of air pollutants

will remain very high—perhaps as many as 136

million persons, or about half the population in

2000. Since automobiles are particularly heavy

contributors to peak concentrations of carbon

monoxide and photochemical oxidants, additional measures to control exhaust emissions

will be needed to improve air quality in urban

areas,

Three policy alternatives to reduce automobile emissions have been considered: further

tightening of new car standards (especially for

nitrogen oxides), mandatory inspection and

maintenance, and restriction of automobile use.

Analysis shows that further tightening of new

car standards would be only marginally effective and, in the case of nitrogen oxides, could

delay or prevent the use of diesels. A nationwide

program of inspection and maintenance of

vehicles in use could produce major improvements in air quality. Estimates based on Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) data indicate that, within 8 years after implementation,

mandatory inspection and maintenance would

reduce automobile emissions of carbon monoxide and hydrocarbons by 60 percent and 35 percent, respectively, from what they would be

without such a program. Control of automobile

use would be effective as a supplementary

143
144 . Changes in the Future Use and Characteristics of the Automobile Transportation System

measure in specific locations, provided that

compensating improvements in mass transit are

also made, However, as a general measure or as

a long-term strategy, automobile use controls

appear to be of limited value since they would

place limitations on mobility in return for

relatively small improvements in air quality.

Projections of other environmental impacts of

automobiles and highways—noise, community

disruption, intrusion in agricultural, recreational, and wilderness areas, and disposal of

scrap vehicles and parts—do not indicate the

need for major new policies by the Federal

Government to control automobile system characteristics and use. Existing policies, if judiciously and vigorously applied, appear to be

adequate to contain or minimize adverse environmental impacts,

The introduction of new technology for automobile propulsion systems and fuels raises the

prospects of new or more serious impacts on the

environment. The projected increase in the use

of diesel engines may call for new measures to

control nitrogen oxide emissions (which are particularly high for diesels) or other substances

(such as nitrosamines or particulate matter)

found in diesel exhaust. More extensive use of

electric vehicles may necessitate placing more

stringent controls on power-generating plants

supplying the electricity for storage batteries.

There are major environmental problems associated with the production of synthetic fuels

from coal or oil shale. In addition, the high

benzene content of coal-derived liquids could

cause serious health and safety problems, both

during production and distribution and when

burned as a motor fuel.

BACKGROUND

Air Pollution

In 1975, the 95 mil

United States traveled

lion automobiles in the

slightly over 1 trillion

miles. During the year, these automobiles emitted more than 81 million tons of atmospheric

pollutants. As a result of pollution from automobiles, combined with emissions from other

forms of transportation and from stationary

sources, the National Ambient Air Quality

Standards for either carbon monoxide or photochemical oxidants were exceeded in about a

third of the AQCRs throughout the country. 1

(See table 59. )

These figures are national aggregates and do

not fully reflect the effects on the population in

areas of extensive and concentrated automobile

use—chiefly the central parts of cities, but

sometimes the surrounding suburbs as well. In

those urban areas, where both population and

automobile use are the greatest and where air

pollution from nonautomotive sources is also

the highest, it is estimated that between 125 and

150 million people were potentially exposed at

least once during the year to concentrations of

carbon monoxide or photochemical oxidants

that exceeded established Federal standards.

The effects of this exposure on human health

cannot be calculated with certainty. Estimates

vary both as to the degree of danger and its importance for the more vulnerable segments of

the population—infants, the elderly, and those

with respiratory or cardiac disorders. However,

the evidence clearly indicates that atmospheric

pollution (to which the automobile is a major

contributor) is cause for serious concern.

Recognition of the automobile as a source of

air pollution dates back nearly a quarter of a

century to the publication of experimental

studies by Haagen-Smit, who described the

process by which organic substances (such as

hydrocarbons) and nitrogen oxides accumulate

in the atmosphere and form photochemical oxidants when exposed to the ultraviolet component of sunlight. Haagen-Smit further demonstrated the role played by automobile exhaust,

which contains both hydrocarbons and oxides
Ch. 6—Environment Issues, Policies, and Findings ● 145

Table 59.—Automobile Emissions and Air Quality–1975

Automobiles All sources

Emissions (million tons/year)

Carbon monoxide. . . . . . . . . . . . 69.3 119.5

Hydrocarbons . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.9 29.4

Nitrogen Oxides . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.0 22.5

Air quality Numbe r

Carbon monoxide

Number of AQCRsa exceeding standardb

. . . . . . . . . 43

Number of AQCRs exceeding 2 x standard . . . . . . . 25

Total violations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68

Photochemical oxidants

Number of AQCRs exceeding standard’ . . . . . . . . . 49

Number of AQCRs exceeding 2 x standard. . . . . . . 20

Number of AQCRs exceeding 3 x standard. . . . . . . 8

Number of AQCRs exceeding 4 x standard. . . . . . . 7

Total violations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 84

Photo Credit U S Departrnent of Transportation
146 ● Changes in the Future Use and Characteristics of the Automobile Transportation System

of nitrogen, in the formation of smog.2 Automobile exhaust also contains carbon monoxide

(CO), which results from the incomplete combustion of hydrocarbon fuels. While not involved in the photochemical reaction of hydrocarbons (HC) and nitrogen oxides (NOX

) that

produces smog, carbon monoxide is also an atmospheric pollutant because of its toxicity to

humans and vegetation. It has been estimated

that in 1972, automobiles accounted for about a

half of the total CO emissions nationwide and

about a quarter of the HC and NOX emissions. 3

Carbon monoxide has been linked, either as a

causative or contributing factor, to a number of

health problems. CO interferes with oxygen

transport in the human body by displacing oxygen from hemoglobin and forming carboxyhemoglobin in the bloodstream. Concentrations of carboxyhemoglobin as low as 3 to 5 percent 4 can cause adverse effects both in normal

people (decrease of vigilance and shortness of

breath) and in those with arteriosclerotic heart

disease (inducement of chest pains and reduced

heart efficiency ).’

Hydrocarbons and nitrogen oxides are the socalled precursor emissions that lead to the production of photochemical oxidants, such as

ozone. The health effects of photochemical oxidants range from relatively minor discomforts,

such as eye and throat irritation, to aggravation

of chronic disorders, such as obstructive pulmonary disease (bronchial asthma, emphysema). It has been estimated that between 3

and 5 percent of the population may be considered to have some degree of obstructive pulmonary disease. b

Apart from their role in the formation of oxidants, nitrogen oxides have also been shown to

have direct effects on health. Prolonged or

repeated exposure to concentrations of NOX

greater than 0.5 parts per million (ppm) appears

to be particularly hazardous for persons with

asthma, chronic respiratory diseases, and cardiac disease. There are also risks for those suffering from viral and bacterial pulmonary infections (colds, influenza). Some evidence also suggests that the very young have an increased

susceptibility to pulmonary damage if exposed

to concentrations above 0.5 ppm for prolonged

periods. ’

The medical evidence on the health effects of

CO, HC, and NOX is far from definitive and

complete. Serious questions have been raised

about the causal relationships between atmospheric pollutants and health disorders. There is

also question about the appropriateness of the

present ambient air quality standards. 8 9 T h e

standards and the supporting evidence were

reviewed by the Coordinating Committee on

Air Quality Standards of the National Academy

of Sciences and National Academy of Engineering (NAS/NAE) in 1973. The Committee concluded that:

Automobile emissions may account for as

much as one-quarter of one percent of the total

urban health hazard, (representing) as many as

4,000 deaths and 4 million illness-restricted days

per year. Four thousand deaths is about an

eighth of the deaths from bronchitis, emphysema, and asthma combined, or a twelfth of

the deaths from automobile accidents. Four

million days of illness is nearly equivalent to a

tenth of the total number of days lost from work

each year because of respiratory illnesses. 10

The NAS/NAE report also pointed out the

degree of uncertainty surrounding these esti-

‘M. M, F{>x and A.J. Haagen-Smit, ‘Aut(~m[~bile Exhaust and

Oz~>ne F[~rmation, ” VLIIIICIC E~rIIssi{)t~s-PtJrt 1 ( New Y[}rk: Society

of Au torn [) t ]ve Engineers, Inc. , 1964), pp. 1-6, 1 b.

‘L). S, Department ot Transpc>rtatlon, Tht’ lio~[lrt by t)lc ~t~~jt~rtil

Tush F(lrc( LI)I ~!of(]r vt~~]fc~t~ ~ou~s ~t]~o!~[f 1 ~80 volume 2, Sept.

2, lQ7b, pp. 10-15.

‘The percentage t}t carboxyhemoglobin concentratiorlrefers to

th~t pt~rt i[~n [)f the hemoglobin in the bl(](d that is bound WrI th carbt>n m{>n(}xide, and thus unable to transport (}xygen,

‘U.S. C(~ngress, Senate, Committee on Public Works, Air

QI(L~lIt~ L~II(f Autoniohilc Et?Ils.siot~ ~o)~trol Vc~lume I, Summar y

Report, A Report by the Coordinating Committee on Air Quality

studies, ~’atltlna] Academy (>I Sciences, ~ratit~na] Academy of

Engineering, Comrnlttec Print, 93d C<}ngress, 2d Session,

%pternber 1Q74, pp. 27-2Q,

‘Ibid., p, 49.

“Ibid., p. 43-44

‘The present Natitlnal Ambient Air Quality Standards specify 9

ppm ( 10 mg m‘) in an 8-h(Jur period as the maximum permissible

concen t ra tl~>n (~t CO. The standard for ph(ltochem ical oxidants IS

0,08 ppm ( ldO ~g m’) In a l-hour perl~d. There is no standard ft}r

sh(~rt-term exposure to nitrogen dioxide ( NO~ I at this time; the ex -

i>tin~ \tandard annual arithmetic average {~f 0,05 ppm (9.4 mg m‘ t

is Intended to pr(}tect against long-term chronic ettects. The 1977

amendments t o the Clean AI r Act directed EPA to develop a standard for short-term exposure to N02.

‘See, for example, Petition of American Petroleum Institute and

Member Companies Before the Administrator of the U.S. Environmental Protect ion Agency, Dec. 9, 1~76, for a review and

critique of the laboratory and epidemiologicai evidence supptlrt ing

the current standards.

“’U.S. Ct)ngress, Senate , C(~mmlttee on Public ~’c~rks, AIr

Quu/It,v ~~n~f Automobflr EmISSIOH C[l}~tr(l/, p. 13.
mates, stating that the total urban health hazard

from all forms of air pollution might be as low

as 0.01 percent or as high as 10 percent. The

range of estimates of the part attributable to

automobile emissions was also large—between

1 and 25 percent. If these estimates are combined to produce minimum and maximum approximations of the impact of automobile emissions on urban health, the NAS/NAE findings

suggest that automobile emissions may account

for something between 0.0001 percent and 0.25

percent of the urban health hazard. Clearly, a

definitive assessment of the relationship between automobile emissions and pubIic health

cannot be made without further laboratory

studies and epidemiological research to narrow

the range of uncertainty and to establish firmer

causal links.

A more recent study, conducted in 1976 by

the Air Quality, Noise, and Health Panel of the

Interagency Task Force on Motor Vehicle Goals

Beyond 1980, cataloged a variety of health effects linked to automobile emissions. While the

panel did not include a review of medical evidence in its report, the analysis was conducted

on the assumption that reduction in CO, HC,

and NOY emissions (from automobiles and

other sources) would produce substantial health

benefits of the types identified by NAS/NAE. 1 1

In addition to CO, HC, and NOx, automobile

exhaust contains other substances that, in sufficient concentrations, may be of concern as atmospheric pollutants.

Ž Lead—emitted as particulate matter from

automobiles burning fuel to which tetra -

ethyl lead has been added to increase the

octane rating,

● Particulates—contained in diesel exhaust,

which have been shown to have strong

mutagenic and possibly carcinogenic properties, and

• Nitrosamines —a carcinogenic agent,

emitted from the crankcases and fuel

systems of diesel engines.

With the exception of Iead, which is being

phased out as a motor fuel additive under cur-

‘‘~1, S 1)t.P.]r[m(,nt [,1 Tr~nSp(>rtd[lL}n okf](~ <~t th(, Secretary,

,4 [r QI((//Ifv f’ [.(’ L/t~[/ H~I(/lt/I R(’p(lrt of J J>.]ne] ot the lnter.]~cn -

c \ T.i\k, F(~rc c’ {)n Llot or J’eh]cle (;(l.]1~ lk~rond 1080, Nlarch I Q7tJ

Ch. 6—Environment Issues, Policies, and Findings ●

rent statutes, the evidence is not conclusive

147

o n

the health hazards posed by emission of these

substances from automobiles at the present

levels. Research on both the health effects and

the level of permissible concentration is continuing.

Other Environmental Problems

The environmental impacts of the automobile

transportation system are not limited to atmospheric pollution. Automobiles and highways have a variety of adverse impacts that

should be considered in setting and enforcing

policies to protect the general quality of the environment. The noise of vehicles, the disposal of

solid wastes (scrap vehicles and major parts,

such as tires and batteries), the contamination

of water by fuels, lubricants, and road salt, the

disruption of communities by highway construction, and the invasion of agricultural lands,

natural preserves, and recreation areas by automobiles and highways are problems that also require attention.

The noise of automobiles is of concern both

because of its possible health effects and because

of its disruption of human activities. Prolonged

exposure to high levels of noise can cause hearing damage. Exposure to lower levels has been

shown to produce anxiety and distress due to interference with conversation, telephone communication, 1istening to radio and television,

concentration during mental activity, sleep, and

relaxation.

The Environmental Protection Agency has

defined 70 dB L,q

12 as the noise level below

which hearing damage will not occur. Since exposure to urban traffic noise is generally below

this level, traffic noise is not regarded as a

significant contributor to hearing damage

among urban populations as a whole. However,

for individuals whose activities place them in a

position of regular exposure to high levels of

traffic noise (traffic policemen, tollbooth attendants, roadside workers), permanent hearing

damage could result. Table 60 shows estimates

1‘1.,, [24 } rcpr~’wnt~ th(> A-\\elghttd ~~)un[l ener~>’, me.]~ured In

dtx IbCt \ ( d B ~, ,] ~rera~ed ovc’r a 24-hot] r pc~r iod An (~t her me.~~u t-e

c (l]m mo n 1 \ uwd t or n OIse et tec t + I\ 1.(ln w’h ich I\ 1,,1 \vI t h J 10 di3

I nc remen ta 1 wc i~h t Ing .~ppl led t (1 the p(’r[od I o p m to 7 .] m. t(~

.Icc (}u n t t ~lr t he I nc re,] Asen~] t i ~’ I t }’ (1 t people t (~ n (llw’ J t n l~h t
148 Ž Changes in the Future Use and Characteristics of the Automobile Transportation System

of the number of people exposed to various

levels of traffic noise.

Table 60.—Estimated Number of People Subjected

to Traffic Noise

At or above

outdoor Ldn

55. . . . . . . . . . . .

60. . . . . . . . . . . .

65. . . . . . . . . . . .

70. . . . . . . . . . . .

75. . . . . . . . . . . .

Persons subjected (mill ions)

Urban traffic Freeway traffic

93.4 4.9

59.0 3.1

24.3 , 2.5

6.9 1.9

1.3 0.9

There is no generally accepted standard for

evaluating noise as a disruptive or nuisance factor in human activity. The sensitivity to noise

varies widely among individuals and for the

same individual as a function of age, general

health, type of noise, time of day, activity in

which engaged, and so forth. Because many of

these are subjective factors, there is no reliable

way to estimate the extent to which automobile

noise has an adverse effect on human activity,

personal comfort, and sense of well-being.

The automobile is relatively quiet in comparison with other vehicles that make up the

traffic stream. However, because the automobile is the preponderant component of traffic, it

must be considered a major contributor to traffic noise, especially in urban areas. (See table

61. ) Measures to achieve reduction in traffic

noise must therefore give consideration to suppression or elimination of automobile-produced

noise.

Table 61 .—Median Noise Levels and

Urban Traffic Mix

Median noise

level dB(A) Percent of

Source at 50 feeta

urban traffic

Heavy-duty trucks . . . 85 1.0

Medium-duty trucks . 77 6.0

Buses . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79 0.5

Motorcycles. . . . . . . . 82

Automobiles. . . . . . . 65 91.5:

aThe de~,bel ScaIe ,s Iogarlthmlc, each Increase of 10 dB repreSentS a doubling

of loudness

bAt 27.mph crul~fng spe~d< rn~d,ao autornob[le noise IS 60 dB(A) DUrlng accel

eratlon In urban areas, the median noise level IS 72 dB(A]

SOURCE U S Department of Transportation. Air Oual)ty. Nojse and ~ealt?r.

Report of a Panel of the Interagency Task Force on Motor Vehicle

Goa~s Beyond 1980, March 1976, pp 6-21

The disposal of solid waste produced by the

automobile system is also an environmental

problem. Each year, about 7 million cars are

scrapped—amounting to more than 13 million

tons of solid waste, largely steel and iron, but

also including aluminum, copper, other metals,

rubber, and plastics, About two-thirds of these

junk cars are salvaged and processed to recover

scrap materials, but the remainder are either

disposed of in land fills or left to rust along the

roads or in vacant lots. In addition to the

vehicles themselves, about 150 million tires and

50 million batteries are discarded each year.13

Only a fraction of these items is reclaimed

through salvage; the rest (amounting to perhaps

as much as 5 million tons) is added to municipal

refuse. Overall, it is estimated that automobile

solid wastes make up about 7 percent of the

total commercial, residential, and municipal

waste in the United States each year. 14 Thi s

figure does not include the additional millions of

tons of litter deposited along streets and roads

by motorists. While disposal of waste is largely

a municipal concern, Federal policy may play a

role in determining the composition (and hence

recoverability) of automobile scrap or in promoting more productive use of scrap vehicles

and parts.

Automobiles and highways also have important impacts on water quality. Highway construction leads to stream pollution by erosion

and sedimentation from excavations or by contaminating runoff water with chemicals or other

materials used in roadbuilding. Road salt and

other chemicals used to clear streets and highways of snow and ice are carried away by runoff water and pollute streams or destroy vegetation in the path of the runoff. Automobiles

deposit a variety of materials on the road surface. These are subsequently either dissolved or

borne away by runoff water into nearby

streams. Automobile deposits include exhaust

components, lubricants, coolants, hydraulic

fluids, and tire materials. In addition to the

materials deposited on the road, the automobile

system produces millions of gallons of waste

fluids (crankcase oil, hydraulic fluids, battery

acid, and spilled fuel) that may make their way

into soil and water. Even if measures are taken

‘ ‘Motor Vehicle hlanulacturers Association, A4(Ifc7r VPIIICIC

Facts [ztld Figzirm 77 (Detroit: Motor Vehicle Manufacturers

Association, IQ77).

“Sydw ‘EEA, p. 111-127.
Ch. 6—Environment Issues, Policies, and Findings ● 149

to prevent their drainage into the surrounding

soil and water, the disposal of these liquid

wastes (chiefly used crankcase oil, coolants, and

battery acid) poses an important environmental

problem. As with solid waste, the treatment and

disposal of liquid wastes and effluents are largely local matters. However, Federal policy may

have an influence, either through requiring control of water quality impacts (for example, as a

precondition for Federal funding of highways)

or through promoting environmentally sound

methods of treatment, disposal, or reclamation,

The environmental impacts of the automobile

and highway system reach far beyond the physical effects on the atmosphere, water, and soil

enumerated thus far. There is also a class of impacts that are variously designated as social impacts, community impacts, or quality-of-life impacts. These include a number of undesirable

consequences of highway building and automobile use—among which are displacement of

homes and businesses, denial of accustomed access to facilities and services, disruption of community cohesion, alteration of land values (and

Phofo Credlf U S Department of Transporfaflon

property taxes), removal of land from agricultural production, endangerment of terrestrial

ecosystems, invasion of natural preserves and

pristine areas, and infringement on sites of

historical, archaeological, natural, or aesthetic

importance. The need to protect specifically affected individuals (and society in general) from

these impacts of automobiles and highways,

while assuring all the wider benefits of mobility,

is one of the most controversial and keenly

debated questions of national environmental

policy. Part of the controversy stems from the

lack of an objective method to quantify these

impacts and to assess costs and benefits, many

of which may be intangible. The question is also

controversial because it tends to pit the values

and desires of the automobile-using public at

large against the values of a relatively small

group of affected or interested parties (residents

of a particular neighborhood, those who want

to preserve a certain natural site, or those who

want a community of a special character). Environmental considerations of this sort tend to

raise profound questions of social and economic

equity.
750 • Changes in the Future Use and Characteristics of the Automobile Transportation System

PRESENT POLICY

The present policy of the Federal Government

on environmental matters is set forth in a variety of documents—Federal Statutes and the U.S.

Code, Presidential Executive Orders, the Code

of Federal Regulations, Department of Transportation (DOT) Orders, and administrative

rulings by DOT, the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA), the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA), and EPA.

However, the essential features of this policy are

embodied in the eight major legislative acts

described below. Table 62, is a classification of

this legislation according to the type of environmental impact dealt with.

It will be noted that much of the legislation is

of recent origin. Most of these laws were

enacted within the past decade, and half since

1970. Most of the legislation deals with a specific environmental problem (e.g., emissions,

noise, social impacts of highways), with air

quality being the predominant concern. Also,

much of the present policy is regulatory in

nature and directed toward particular automobile performance characteristics.

The Clean Air Act of 1963 (Public Law

88-206) provided for interstate conferences on

abatement of air pollution and authorized the

Federal Government, in some cases, to initiate

suits to force reduction of emissions. The Act

also designated three major areas of air pollution research: control of motor vehicle emissions, removal of sulfur from fuels, and development of air quality criteria. An amendment to

the Act (Title 11), passed in 1965, authorized the

Department of Health, Education, and Welfare

(HEW) to set emission standards for automobiles beginning in the 1968 model year.

The Department of Transportation Act of

1966 (Public Law 89-670) stated that it was the

national policy to make a special effort to preserve “the naturaI beauty of the countryside and

public parks and recreational lands, wildlife and

water-fowl refuges, and historic sites. ” The Act

provided that transportation programs and

projects involving the use of public land be approved only if it was demonstrated that there

was “no feasible and prudent alternative to the

use of such land” and that such programs include “all possible planning to minimize harm”

to natural, recreational, and historic sites.

The Air Quality Act of 1967 (Public Law

90-148) attempted to remedy some of the deficiencies of the 1963 Clean Air Act by preempting States from setting emissions standards for

new motor vehicles unless they had done so

before March 30, 1966. California was the only

State to have imposed emissions standards by

this deadline. The Act, in effect, indicated the

intent of the Federal Government to assume the

lead in setting automobile emissions standards.

The National Environmental Policy Act of

1969 (Public Law 91-190) established a broad

policy for environmental protection. NEPA set

policies and goals concerning all aspects of the

environment and required that specific Federal

policies, regulations, and programs be administered in accordance with these policies and

goals. NEPA also provided for the creation of

the Council on Environmental Quality (CEQ)

and the adoption of an interdisciplinary approach in planning federally assisted highway

projects. To do this, NEPA established provisions for environmental impact statements,

public hearings on environmental impacts, and

preparation of environmental action plans.

The Highway Act of 1970 (23 U.S.C. 109)

directed the Secretary of Transportation, in consultation with EPA, to develop and put into effect guidelines to assure consistency of highways with approved plans for implementation

of ambient air quality standards. The Act also

provided for DOT to develop and promulgate

standards for highway noise levels compatible

with different land uses and to withhold approval of highway projects that do not include

adequate measures to comply with noise standards.

The Clean Air Act of 1970 (Public Law

91-614), technically amendments to the 1963

Clean Air Act, set standards for emissions of

CO, HC, and NOX from new light-duty vehicles

at a level 90 percent below that of 1970 vehicles.

The CO and HC standards (later determined administratively to be 3.4 grams per mile for CO

and 0.41 gram per mile for HC) were to be met
Ch. 6—Environment Issues, Policies, and Findings . 151

Table 62.—Selected Laws Relating to Environmental Impacts of Automobiles and Highways

Type of impact controlled

System

component

affected Physical

al

Vehicles Highways

Clean Air Act of 1963 ● ●

Department of Transportation

Act of 1966 ● ● ● ●

Air Quality Act of 1967 ● ●

National Environmental

Policy Act of 1969 ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●

Highway Act of 1970 ● ● ●

Clean Air Act of 1970 ● ● ● o

Noise Control Act of 1972 ● ●

Clean Air Act of 1977 ● ●

●

aEcOn Oml~ ,mpact~ ,nclude those on employment bus[ness actlvlty residences, prOperty taxe S. regional ~ community growth and ‘esources

bsoc(al ,mpact~ ,nclude those on commun(ty cohesion access(b(lity to facllltles and Services and displacement of Peo Ple
152 ● Changes in the Future Use and Characteristics of the Automobile Transportation System

by 1975. The NOX standard, to be met by 1976,

was 0.4 gram per mile. The Act required that

these standards be met over the useful life of the

motor vehicle, defined as the first 50,000 miles

or 5 years, whichever comes first. The Act authorized EPA to establish National Ambient Air

Quality Standards (NAAQS) 15 and AQCRs.

The Act required States to submit plans for attaining NAAQS and authorized the imposition

of transportation control plans, if necessary, to

attain air quality standards for particular

AQCRs by the specified deadline. Title 11 of the

Act provided for a fine of $10,000 per vehicle to

be levied against manufacturers marketing

vehicles not certified as meeting standards.

The Noise Control Act of 1972 (Public Law

92-754) provided EPA with authority to set

comprehensive standards and regulations for

abatement and control of noise, including that

from automotive sources. While recognizing the

primary responsibility of State and local governments in noise control, the Act affirmed that

Federal Government action is essential to assure

national uniformity in dealing with major noise

sources. States and localities retain rights and

authorities to determine the levels of noise permitted in their environments and to establish

and enforce controls on noise through licensing,

regulation, or restriction of noise sources. The

Act, however, authorizes EPA to establish noise

emission standards for products distributed in

interstate commerce and to set deadlines based

on the application of best available technology.

The Act also foresees the need for Federal

assistance to State and local governments in enforcement and research.

The Clean Air Act of 1977 (Public Law

95-95), the most recent of a series of amendments to the 1970 Clean Air Act, established

automobile emission standards to be met in successive steps through 1981:

1977-79 1980 1981

HC . . . . . . 1.5 gm / mi 0.41 gm/mi 0.41 gm/mi

co . . . . . . 15.0 gm/mi 7.0 gm / mi 3.4 gm/ mi

NO X . . . . . 2.0 gm / mi 2.0 gm / mi 1.0 gm / mi

The 1977 amendments also allowed a 2-year

waiver of the 1981 CO and NOX standards

‘SNAAQS have been established for five pollutants: particulate

mat ter, sulfur dloxidel nitrogen dioxide, carbon monoxide, and

photochernical oxtdants,

under certain conditions and postponed imposition of the 0.4-gram-per-mile standard for NOX

until further research is conducted. The 1977

Act contained some provisions that indicate a

shift from the policy of the 1970 Clean Air Act,

such as permitting States to adopt the more

stringent California standards if they desire,

granting States explicit authority to adopt indirect source control programs, requiring promulgation of an air quality standard for shortterm exposure to nitrogen dioxide, requesting

EPA to report to Congress on the advantages

and disadvantages of a system of penalties for

N OX emissions, and requiring EPA to set emissions standards for trucks, buses, and other

vehicles over 6,000-pound gross weight manufactured for use on public roads and streets.

From the foregoing summaries, it can be seen

that present environmental policy with respect

to the automobile transportation system is of

two basic types—statements of goals, principles, and guidelines (such as in NEPA), and

specific regulatory standards (as in the case of

automobile emissions and noise). The regulatory

●

●

●

•

policies have four basic features:

They are predicated on objective and quantified measures that are directly related to

public health.

They call for progressive attainment of

goals by a series of deadlines.

They embody the concept of “technology

forcing. ”

The sanctions for noncompliance are set so

as to remove any economic incentive for

not meeting the standards (i.e., the fine for

not complying is at least as great as the cost

of complying).

The present environmental protection policies, especially automobile emissions standards,

have met with several criticisms. The adequacy

of the research on health effects and the benefits

ascribed to specific reductions in pollution levels

have been challenged. lb The goals and deadlines

for achieving air quality standards have been

“See, for example, American Petroleum Institute (footnote 9);

and F. P. Grad, et al., The Au tontob~lt~ arzd th~~ RegL//atIoH of Its

lmpuct (7/1 th~ Er~t~iro)~mL~//t (Norman, Okla.: University of

Oklah(~ma Press, 1975), pp. 31-66.
called unrealistic and economically unsound. 17

It has been argued that the strategy of technology forcing removes the Federal Government

too much from the field of research and places

the burden of innovation almost exclusively on

manufacturers without any assurance that they

will be able to meet the challenge. 18 It has been

asserted that the deadlines accompanying the

standards have the effect of pushing manufacturers toward short-term, remedial techniques

(such as catalytic converters) at the expense of

encouraging efforts to find more fundamental,

long-term solutions. ’9 Questions as to the

appropriateness of a single standard for all automobiles in all parts of the country under all conditions of use have led to suggested alternative

approaches, such as regional standards or the

so-called two-car strategy .20 There is doubt

about the ability to enforce standards, the strict

application of which might do grave harm to

one or more manufacturers or to the economy

as a whole. ” There has been strong resistance to

transportation use controls as a means to reduce

air pollution on the grounds that they represent

Ch. 6—Environment Issues,

intrusion by the Federal

tionally local decisions

land use policy .22 It has

present approach is too

Policies, and Findings ● 153

Government into tradion transportation and

been suggested that the

rigidly concerned with

automobile emissions and should be replaced

with a more flexible policy that treats mobile

and stationary source emissions as a whole and

permits tradeoffs.23 Finally, the basic strategy of

regulation has been attacked on economic

grounds as more costly and less efficient than an

approach based on taxation or market incentives. 2q

No attempt will be made at this point to deal

in detail with the arguments for and against the

present environmental protection policy of the

Federal Government. However, the questions

raised above should be kept in mind during the

discussion of policy alternatives, where ways of

changing the Federal role in environmental protection are considered. Also, some of these

criticisms will be examined specifically in the

analysis of effects and impacts that may ensue

from these policy options.

ISSUES

Several issues of public policy surround the

general problem of how to prevent harm to the

environment by the automobile transportation

system. These issues involve the need to protect

the health and well-being of the populace from

the adverse effects of automotive technology,

while assuring the continued benefits of a personal transportation mode that is vital to the

economic and social structure of the country.

Some of the issues arise from the way in which

present environmental protection policies are

formulated and applied. Others stem from the

characteristics of automotive technology, both

now and as it may evolve in the future. Some

I-A, V, Kneese and C. L. Schultze, Pollut~orI, Pnrcs a)ld Public

Policy (Washington, D. C.: The Brooklngs Institution, 1975).

IRH, S. Jacoby and J. D. Steinbruner, C/ear~ng the AIr (Cambr}dge, Mass.: Ballinger Publishing Co., 1973).

1 *U.S. Congress, Senate, Committee on Public Works, A ir

Qualify arrd Automo6ife Emission Corrtrol, Volume 3.

20 Kneese and Schultze, op. cit.

“D, Harrison, Jr., Who Pays for Clean Air—The Cost and

BL7?7PfIt D15trIhL/tI,It7 c]f Federal Automobile Emission Cor7tro/s

(Cambridge, hlaw.: Ballinger Publishing Co., 1975),

confront us now; others are expected to emerge

or intensify later as the number and concentration of automobiles in use increase over the rest

of this century.

The environmental issues addressed in the

automobile assessment are:

How should the Federal Government set

environmental standards relating to the

characteristics and use of the automobile

system, and how should they be enforced?

Should Federal environmental standards be

extended to control of passenger vehicles in

use?

“J. E. Blodgett, Ent~iro)~mc~ltal f%ofect~ol?, Issues in Public Policy Series, IPP 76-19 (Washington, D. C.: The Library of Congress,

Congressional Research Service, No\. 5, IQ76 ).

“U.S. Department of Transportation, Thr RLIIIOtt by thLT Fcdeml

Task Fore-c on Motor Vehlclr GLJL71$ lleyotzd 1~80 pp. 10-1 to

10-19.

24 Harrison, Jr., Who Pays for Clea/7 Air. , Kneese and Schultze,

Pol11JfIot7, F%ces a)zd PLIb/Ic Po/Iry, E, S. Mills and L. J. White,

“Auto Emissions: Why Regulation Hasn’t Worked, ” Tech~zology

Rr71fPuI March April 1978, pp. 55-63.

11-07 i () - -i { - 11
154 . Changes in the Future Use and Characteristics of the Automobile Transportation System

● To what extent should transportation use

controls be applied to reduce the environmental impacts of the automobile?

● What criteria should be used to judge the

value of environmental policies and programs related to the automobile?

● To what extent should factors other than

public health (e.g., community impacts,

quality of life, and aesthetics) be considered

in setting environmental standards?

● What environmental problems should be

considered in the evolution of new automotive technologies and at what point in

the development process should research

on environmental effects be started?

These issues have been examined in the automobile assessment and used both to identify

potential impacts and to guide the formulation

of policy alternatives relating to environmental

protection .25 The issues also provide a framework for evaluation of the policy alternatives

that are discussed later in this chapter.

POLICY ALTERNATIVES

The range of policy alternatives for dealing

with the environmental effects of automobiles is

shown on the relevance trees in chapter 4. These

policies include new or more stringent standards

for new vehicles, control of automobile use,

alternatives to regulation, and encouragement

of other more environmentally benign modes of

personal transportation. Because the range of

policy options is broad, not all could be examined during the automobile assessment. Some

selectivity was therefore required.

The two contractors supporting OTA were

directed to take different approaches to policy

selection. SRI performed separate analyses of

three individual policies. Sydec/EEA examined

a group of policies, which had the collective intent of achieving major improvement in environmental quality beyond that projected for the

Base Case. Thus, neither contractor attempted a

comprehensive treatment of all possible environmental policies. SRI concentrated on air

quality as the most important concern, and

examined three different approaches to supplement present policy on automobile emissions.

Sydec/EEA formulated a coordinated set of

policies aimed at general environmental improvement, but consistent with other concerns

such as safety, mobility, energy, and cost.

The policies studied by SRI were:

• Mobile-Stationary Source Tradeoffs.—

Consideration of tradeoffs between automobile emission standards and stationary

●

●

It

source controls as a more cost-effective

preach to meeting air quality objectives;

apRegionally Specific Standards.—Differentiation between the air pollution problems

of cities and rural areas by setting standards for automobiles based on the air quality in the region where the vehicle is owned

and operated (i.e., the two-car strategy);

Mandatory Inspection and Maintenance.—

Adoption, at the State level, of a program

for periodic inspection and required maintenance of vehicles in use to ensure that

they continue to meet emission standards

for new cars.

should be noted that these policies are not

mutually exclusive, nor are they inconsistent

with the present policy governing the emissions

characteristics of new cars. Any or all could be

combined with the current provisions of the

Clean Air Act or with either tighter or more

relaxed versions of these standards.

The Sydec/EEA policy set (called the Improved Environment Case) is made up of several

measures, which are of two types: major policy

actions to reduce the negative environmental effects of automobiles, and supporting measures

ZsFulIer discussion of the issues is contained in a series of wOrking papers prepared by the OTA staff, issues lrmolued in the Study

Of Potential changes in the Characteristics anci Use of the Autornobile Transportation System, OTA, Oct. 21, 1977.
Ch. 6—Environment Issues, Policies, and Findings ● 155

to increase the effectiveness of the major policy

actions. (See table 63. )

Table 63.—Policies for Improved Environment Case

Major Policies

●

●

●

Mandatory inspection and maintenance of

vehicles in use.

More stringent NOX standard for new cars,

Motor fuel tax to keep the cost of driving constant.

Parking management (including zoning and

restraints on use of land for parking lots).

Restraints on automobile use in urban areas (except e/ectric vehicles).

Improved transit.

Supporting Policies

• Carpool and van pool incentives.

● Transit incentives.

. Incentives for use of electric vehicles in commercial applications.

. Bicycle incentives.

● Other transportation system management projects.

The major policies assumed for the Improved

Environment Case are:

Ž Mandatory Inspection and Maintenance. —

A program of annual or semiannual inspection of all cars on the road would be instituted with the cooperation of State and

local governments. Vehicles failing to meet

standards would be required to have adjustment, repair, or replacement of emission control devices. It is assumed that a

program, with sufficient facilities and

trained mechanics to inspect all vehicles

semiannually and to deal with an expected

30-percent failure rate, would be implemented.

● More Stringent NOX Standard.—A NOX

emission standard of 0.4 gram per mile

would be imposed on all new vehicles (including light trucks, vans, and diesels) in

1990. If diesels were unable to meet this

standard, they could not be sold as passenger or light-duty vehicles,

● Motor Fuel Tax. —To offset the decline in

real fuel cost per mile as the result of fuel

economy improvements, Federal motor

fuel taxes would be increased periodically

to hold the cost per mile constant at the

1975 level. This would tend to discourage

increased auto use and the attendant

growth in emissions.

Parking Management.—Local and regional

authorities would be encouraged (or in extreme cases, required) to restrict or eliminate parking in congested areas by means

of such measures as parking surcharges,

elimination of on-street parking, bans on

parking for nonresidents, and limits on

construction of new parking lots.

Restraints on Automobile Use.—Local and

regional authorities would be encouraged

to limit the use of automobiles in congested

areas. Possible restrictions that might be

imposed are auto-free zones, restricted access by time of day or type of vehicle, and

limitation of commuter traffic (either by

tax or outright prohibition) except for carpools and vanpools. Electric vehicles would

be exempt from these conditions.

Improved Transit.—To provide a useful

alternative means of personal transportation and to compensate for the restrictions

on automobile use, public transit facilities

would have to be expanded or improved. It

is assumed that Federal Government funding of capital improvements would increase

15 percent per year from 1975 to 1985 (in

constant 1975 dollars) and that the 1985

level of funding (also in constant dollars)

would be maintained through 2000. Federal

subsidy of mass transit operations would

also be increased. In the first year, funding

would double. Thereafter, it would increase at 15 percent annually through 1985

and then remain at the 1985 level until 2000

(all in constant 1975 dollars).

Noise Standards.—It is assumed that noise

standards for all new motor vehicles (medium and heavy trucks, buses, and motorcycles as well as passenger cars, vans, and

light-duty trucks) will be in force by 1985.

In areas of particularly high or objectionable noise, additional measures would

be imposed either to control motor vehicle

use or to provide sound insulation for unusually sensitive buildings (e. g., hospitals

or schools) or for severely affected areas.
156 ● Changes in the Future Use and Characteristics of the Automobile Transportation System

● Supporting Policies.—In addition to the

major policies above, certain supporting

measures would be required. It is assumed

that the Federal Government would adopt

policies to provide incentives for carpools,

vanpools, mass transit, and bicycle use as

alternatives to the single-occupancy automobile. Incentives would also be offered

for commercial and personal use of electric

vehicles, principally in congested areas.

The rationale of this policy set is to foster a substantial improvement in environmental quality,

but without major adverse impacts in the areas

of energy, safety, mobility, and cost. Accordingly, certain additional assumptions and

conditions were made in constructing the Improved Environment Case. These assumptions

and conditions are summarized in table 64 and

described briefly below.

Total expenditures for highways are assumed to remain constant in real dollars at

the 1975 level. The distribution of Federal

highway funding is assumed to change so

that capital expenditures decrease at the

rate of 1 percent per year, while maintenance expenditures increase at a corresponding rate. (This is the same assumption

as in the Base Case. )

It is assumed that a separate transportation

system management program is established

and funded at the level of $2OO million per

year (in constant 1975 dollars). The emphasis of this program would be on projects designed to serve high-occupancy vehicles,

thereby reducing emissions per passenger

mile.

● Level I crashworthiness standards and

mandatory installation of air bags (or their

equivalent) are assumed to be in effect by

1980. The mandatory inspection and maintenance program for emissions control

would include inspection of critical safetyrelated equipment as -well.

• It is assumed that the technology to meet

automobile emissions and noise standards

is available, or will be at the time the standards go into force. Specifically:

—NOX emission levels of 0.4 gram per mile

will be attainable for spark-ignition

engines by 1990.

—Diesels will be able to meet the standard

of 1.0 gram per mile for NOX by 1981.

They may not be able to meet the 1990

standard of 0.4 gram per mile. (The influence of NOX standards on diesel penetration is discussed later in the analysis

of effects and impacts. )

—Automobile noise levels can be reduced

to 65 dB(A) during acceleration and 60

dB(A) for cruise.

EFFECTS

The primary objective of the policies studied

in the Improved Environment Case is to bring

about an improvement in air quality through

reduction of automobile emissions. Other environmental concerns—such as noise and community disruption by highways—are also addressed, but only as secondary objectives. The

heavy emphasis on policies to control auto

emissions stemmed from analysis of Base Case

projections. These showed that the dominant

adverse impact of automobile characteristics

and use in 1985 and 2000 would be on air quality, particularly in urban areas where automobile use is concentrated.

Air Quality

The Improved Environment Case contains

three kinds of policies to reduce automobile

emissions:

1. Policies to reduce auto travel,

2. A stricter NOX emission standard for new

cars, and

3. Mandatory inspection and maintenance of

automobiles in use.

Figure 30 shows the combined effect of these

policies on automobile emissions of CO, HC,
Ch. 6—Environment issues, Policies, and Findings ● 157

Table 64.—Assumptions and Conditions for Improved Environment Case

Assumptions Base Case Improved Environment

Transportation system

Highway

Total expenditures

Construction

Maintenance

Transportation

system management

Mass transportation

Capital improvements

Operations

Stable at 1975 level (in constant

dollars).

Decreases from 50°/0 of total

highway expenditures in 1975

to 25°A in 2000.

Increases from 50°/0 of total

highway expenditures in 1975

to 75°/0 in 2000.

Existing policies, no special

funding.

Funding increased 10% per year

(constant dollars) through 1985

and maintained at 1985 level

through 2000.

Funding increased 10%A per year

(constant dollars) through 1985

and maintained at 1985 level

through 2000.

Environment

Air quality

Vehicle emissions

Inspection and

maintenance

Transportation

controls

Noise

Vehicles

Noise abatement

Same as Base Case

Same as Base Case.

Same as Base Case.

Separate program, funded at

$200 million per year.

Funding increased 15% per

year (constant dollars, through

1985 and maintained at 1985

level through 2000.

Funding doubled initially and

then increased at 15% per year

(constant dollars) through 1985

and maintained at 1985 level

through 2000.

1977 Clean Air Act standards CO and HC same as Base Case,

met, waiver for diesel NO, at Nonstandard tightened to 0.4

1.5 gpm for 1981-83. gpm, no diesel waiver, two-car

strategy (electric cars).

No mandatory program. Mandatory program by 1985.

Negligible. Parking and auto use restraints.

Noise standards for trucks, Noise standards for all vehicles.

buses, and motorcycles.

Continuation of existing policies. Continuation of existing policies.

plus funding for soundproof

ing buildings.

Energy

Fuel economy Case A: 27.5 mpg. Same as Base Case.

Case B: 30 mpg by 1990,35 mpg

by 2000.

Highway speed Moderate Enforcement (present Same as Base Case.

averaqe of 62 mph).

Safety

Occupant restraint Airbags or equivalent on new Same as Base Case.

vehicles as now scheduled.

Crashworthiness Existing standards. Level I.

Taxes

Fuel taxes Fuel taxes increased to Fuel taxes adjusted to hold

maintain revenue at 1975 level. cost per mile constant.

Vehicle taxes No new taxes. Gas-guzzler tax on new cars.

Technology

Propulsion Case A: 100/~ diesels by 1985, Same as Base Case A, except

250/o by 2000. diesels phased out after 1990

Case B: 15°/0 diesels by 1985, unless 0.4 gpm NOX standard

40% by 2000. can be met.

Diesel fuel consumption Case A: 4% by 1985, 18% by Same as Base Case A, except

(percent of all motor fuel) 2000. accelerated penetration of

Case B: 6% by 1985, 29% by electric vehicles.

2000.
158 ● Changes in the Future Use and Characteristics of the Automobile Transportation System

and NOX in 1985 and 2000. The greatest benefit

is reduction of CO emissions which, by 2000,

are expected to decline to about one-third of

what they would be under Base Case conditions.

The reductions of HC and NOX emissions, while

not as great as CO, are also significant.

A more detailed picture of the effects is

presented in table 65, which shows quantitative

estimates of automobile emissions in comparison with 1975 levels and projected Base Case

levels in 1985 and 2000. Compared to 1975, all

automobile emissions in 2000 would be greatly

reduced. The national aggregate of CO emissions from automobiles is expected to fall to 9.7

million tons in 2000 (14 percent of the 1975

level). Hydrocarbons are projected to decline to

1.8 million tons (23 percent of 1975). The corresponding reductions for other pollutants are:

N OX

, 52 percent of 1975; and particulate, 12

percent. The projected effects of present policies

(the Base Case) are also given in table 65. By

comparison, the package of improved environment policies would be considerably more effective in reducing air pollution from automobiles.

Figure 30.—Comparison of Automobile Emissions, Base Case vs. Improved Environment Case

2000

1985

1975 ] 1

Improved Environment

Base Case

10 20 30 40 50 60 70

Million tons

2000

1985

1975

2 4 6 8 10 1 2 3 4 5

Million tons Million tons

SOURCE: Sydec/EEA, p V-33 and Supplementary Report
Ch. 6—Environment Issues, Policiesj and Findings ● 159

Table 65.—Projected Automobile Emissions for the Improved Environment Case

(million tons per year)

Pollutant 1975

Carbon monoxide. . . . . . . . . . . . . 69.3

Hydrocarbons . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.9

Nitrogen oxides . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.0

Total suspended particulatesb 

. . 0.377

1985 2000

Base Improved Percent Base Improved Percent

Case Environment change Case Environment change

32.6 21.4 –34 27.3 9.7 –64

3.5 3.1 – 11 2.9 1.8 – 40

2.7 2.6 – 4 2.9 2.1 –28

0.077 0.094 + 22 0.250 0.044 –82

Effects of Individual Policies

Table 66 shows the contributions of individual policies to the overall decrease in CO, HC,

and NOX emissions. Policies to reduce automobile travel—increased gasoline taxes, automobile disincentives, and transit improvements—

are expected to have small, but beneficial, effects for all types of pollutants. The assumed tax

on gasoline, designed to keep the fuel cost per

mile constant through 2000, is expected to

reduce auto VMT by 0.8 percent from 1985 Base

Case VMT and 0.4 percent from 2000 Base Case

VMT, Auto disincentives and transit improvements would create further VMT reductions of 1

percent in 1985 and 3 percent in 2000. Unlike the

gasoline tax, which would affect rural and urban travel equally, the effects of auto disincentives and transit improvements would be concentrated in urban areas, primarily for journeyto-work trips. As a result, urban VMT under

these policies would be down 2 percent from the

Base Case in 1985 and 6 percent in 2000. As a

whole, the effects of policies to reduce VMT will

account for between 5 and 20 percent of the

total decrease in CO, HC, and NOX expected

from Improved Environment policies.

The second major feature of the Improved Environment Case is lowering the NOX standard

for new automobiles from 1.0 to 0.4 gram per

mile beginning in the 1990 model year. The need

for tightening the automobile NOX standard

stems from two considerations. First, projections of atmospheric pollution under Base Case

conditions show that NOX emissions will be the

major air quality problem in coming years.

Unless more stringent measures are adopted to

control NOX emissions from all sources, air

quality in many urban areas in 1985 and 2000

may be worse than today. Second, the most

serious aspect of the NOX problem is likely to be

how to control peak concentrations, which

often coincide with rush-hour automobile traffic. Thus, a more stringent standard for NOX in

automobile exhaust becomes a particularly important control strategy.

From table 66 it can be seen that lowering the

new car emission standard for NOX to 0.4 gram

per mile has the potential of reducing the national aggregate of NOX emissions by 690,000

tons per year by 2000. This represents nearly 80

percent of the total reduction of NOX from automobiles projected under Improved Environment

policies.

Table 66.—Analysis of Effects of Improved Environment Policies

Change from Base Case year 2000 (million tons)

Carbon Hydro- Nitrogen

Contributing factor monoxide carbons oxides Particulate

Decreased auto travel . . . . . - 0.84 0 -0.164 -0.190 – 0.007

Stricter NO, standard . . . . . — + 0.098 – 0.690 – 0.199

Inspection and maintenance – 16.730 – 1.040 — —

Net. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . – 17.570 – 1.106 – 0.880 – 0.206

SOURCE Sydec/EEA, supplementary report
160 . Changes in the Future Use and Characteristics of the Automobile Transportation System

However, this potential benefit would entail

certain penalties. First, the lower 0.4-gram-permile standard probably could not be met by

diesel engines, which currently emit 2 grams per

mile or more of NOX

. By 1990, the level of NOX

emissions from diesels might be reduced to 1

gram per mile, but probably not much lower

unless there is a major technological breakthrough. For the Improved Environment Case,

no such breakthrough in diesel technology has

been assumed. As a result, the immediate consequence of a 0.4-gram-per-mile NOX standard

would be preclusion of diesels from the new car

market after 1990.

This, in turn, would lead to a greater proportion of cars powered by conventional Otto-cycle

engines in the new car fleet from 1990 to 2000.

Such automobiles emit more hydrocarbons and

lead per mile than diesels. The projections

shown in table 66 indicate that the tightening of

the NOX standard for new cars could result in a

nationwide increase of about 98,000 tons per

year of hydrocarbons, in comparison with the

level of this pollutant expected under Base Case

conditions. The consequences are not so important since the increase stemming from the lower

N OX standard is far outweighed by reductions

in HC emissions brought about by other Improved Environment policies.

The new policy which has the greatest net air

quality benefits in the Improved Environment

Case is the nationwide program of mandatory

inspection and maintenance for all automobiles

in use. The analysis of this policy assumes that,

starting in 1985, all States implement programs

requiring annual or semiannual inspection of all

registered automobiles. Owners whose vehicles

failed inspection would be obliged to have the

necessary repairs or adjustments made before

being allowed to continue operating the vehicle,

which is similar to a provision now employed in

motor vehicle safety inspection programs in

many States.

The program could be administered and implemented either by State-run inspection centers

or by licensing private service stations and

garages as inspection facilities. Inspection standards could be set either nationwide through administrative action by EPA or by the States individually in accordance with Federal guidelines. It has been assumed that standards would

be set for each model year and that they would

vary with the age of the vehicle. Generally, the

standards would be set at levels such that approximately 30 percent of the vehicles in each

model year would fail and be required to have

maintenance performed. For further discussion

of the administration of a mandatory inspection

and maintenance program, see the final section

of this chapter.

The inspection procedure itself would be

limited to tests of CO and HC exhaust emissions. At present, there are no test procedures

for NOX emissions and evaporative HC losses in

general use. While some benefits in terms of

reduced NOX and evaporative HC emissions

might reasonably be expected from the adjustments and tuneups required under this program,

none have been assumed in the analysis of this

policy. Therefore, the projected effects of the inspection and maintenance program include only

the potential reductions in CO and HC from

automobile exhaust.

It is projected that mandatory inspection and

maintenance would reduce CO emissions by

almost 17 million tons per year for the country

as a whole in 2000. This amounts to 95 percent

of the total reduction of CO from automobiles

expected under Improved Environment policies.

The reduction of HC is equally substantial—

slightly over 1 million tons per year in 2000, or

almost 95 percent of the total reduction projected for all Improved Environment policies

combined. (See table 66. )

Mandatory inspection and maintenance thus

appears to have great potential as a means to

reduce automobile emissions. However, a word

of caution is needed about the magnitude of the

projected effects. The benefits of inspection and

maintenance depend heavily on estimates of, the

deterioration rates of emission control devices—

oxidation catalysts and three-way catalytic converters. These devices have been in use for only

a short time, and the data on their continued effectiveness over 50,000 or 100,000 miles of actual driving are limited. Estimates made by EPA

during the period 1975-77 indicated that the performance of emission control devices was relatively stable over time and that they would re-
Ch. 6—Environment Issues, Policies, and Findings ● 161

tain about half their initial effectiveness

throughout 10 years of use on the road. 26

Data from more recent tests by EPA indicate

that emission control devices have much more

rapid rates of deterioration than originally expected. For example, CO emissions from a vehicle certified as meeting a standard of 3.4 grams

per mile when new are now estimated to increase to 10 grams per mile after 5 years (50,000

miles) and 22 grams per mile after 10 years

(100,000 miles). Similar sixfold to eightfold increases are estimated for HC and NOX emissions

from automobiles after 10 years on the road

without maintenance or repair of the emission

control system .27

Thus, the benefits of inspection and maintenance are proportional to the assumed deterioration rates of emission control devices. The

more rapid the deterioration rate, the greater

the benefits of periodic adjustment and repair.

The analysis presented here is based upon the

most recent EPA data. If the EPA estimates are

accurate, the benefits of mandatory inspection

and maintenance would be very great. If, however, the EPA estimates are overly pessimistic

and emission control devices do not lose their

effectiveness as rapidly as now believed, the

benefits of inspection and maintenance would

be lessened accordingly, although they still

might be large enough to warrant imposition of

a mandatory inspection and maintenance program. A full assessment of this policy must

await more definitive information about the

continued effectiveness of emission control

devices under actual driving conditions.

Overall Air Quality

To appreciate the effects of policies to reduce

automobile emissions, it is necessary to consider

the future magnitude of air pollution from all

sources. Figure 31 shows estimates of the national aggregates of emissions from all sources

in 1985 and 2000, divided into three classes:

automobiles, other mobile sources, and stationary sources.

On the whole, atmospheric pollution is expected to remain high. The levels of CO and HC

“U S. Envlronrnental Protection Agency, Compllut~on of A~r

f,)llut[~~~t Em15sIorz Factors, Part A,

2-EPA memorandum on revised m[>bile source emission factors,

dated ]anuary 1978, incorporated in the revised edition of Com-

/JlhfIO)l O( AIr po~~ufanf ~tHlSSl(3t7 ~acf(>rs, AP-42.

will be down somewhat from 1975, but NOX

emissions are expected to continue rising. In all

cases, however, the levels of emissions are projected to be lower than in the Base Case because

of measures to control automobile emissions.

The most substantial improvement is in CO

emissions, which by 2000 will be down 27 percent because of a 64-percent reduction in automobile emissions. The effects of policies to control HC and NOX in automotive exhaust will

have a relatively smaller payoff since the automobile is expected to be only a minor source of

HC and NO, in comparison with stationary

sources.

While automobile exhaust will make up a

declining share of total emissions, the importance of continuing efforts to control automotive sources of pollution can be seen by

examining the projections of urban air quality

for 1985 and 2000. Table 67 shows that a significant decline in violations of the carbon monoxide standard can be expected in both 1985 and

2000 as a result of auto emission controls. In

2000, for instance, the total number of CO

standard violations would fall from 24 under

Base Case policies to 7 under Improved Environment policies. On the other hand, violations

of the oxidant standard would remain high,

largely because of stationary source emissions.

Measures to control automobile HC and NOX

emissions would have a relatively minor effect

on the production of photochemical oxidants.

Figure 32 translates the 1985 and 2000 air

quality projections into estimates of the population exposed to hazardous concentrations of criteria pollutants, The difference between the Base

Case-and Improved Environment policies for

CO is quite large, especially by 2000, and illustrates again the-value of controlling automobile

emissions of CO.

The number of people exposed to oxidant

concentrations higher than the national standard is expected to be essentially the same for the

Base Case and Improved Environment policies

in 1985. By 2000, however, small improvements

are expected as a result of automobile emissions

controls. The total number of people exposed to

oxidant standard violations will remain about

the same, but the number exposed to extreme

violations (greater than 320 micrograms in a 1-

hour period, i.e., twice the national standard)
162 ● Changes in the Future Use and Characteristics of the Automobile Transportation System

Figure 31 .—Projected Emissions from All Sources, 197 S-2000 Improved Environment Policies

2000

1985

1975

2000

1985

1975

10 20 30

Nitrogen oxides (million tons)

2000

1985

1975

10 20 30

Sources

,,, , , .

Other mobile

.

: 1 Reduction from Base Case .

. : 

. . . . . . .auto emissions

SOURCE: .Sydec/EEA, p, V-33 and Supplementary Report
Ch. 6—Environment Issues, Policies, and Findings . 163

Figure 32.—Population Exposed to A

12

10

8

6

4

2

I

140

120

100

80

60

40

20

160

140

120

100

80

60

40

20

I I I I I I I i

Pollution,

14

12

10

8

6

4

2

Improved Environment Case

I

i.

1 I

10 14 18 22 26 10 14 18 22 26

1985

120

100

80

60

40

20

160 320 480 640 800 160 320 480 640 800

WHO b

.

160

140

120

100

80

60

40

20

190 310 430 550 770

Nitrogen dioxide (micrograms per cubic

190 310 430 550 770

meter, l-hour period)

Base Case

1977

SOURCE Sydec EEA, pp V-36-38
164 ● Changes in the Future Use and Characteristics of the Automobile Transportation System

Table 67.—Projected Violations of Air Quality Standards, Improved Environment Case

1985 2000

Improved Improved

Pollutant 1975 Base Case Environment Base Case Environment

Carbon monoxide

Number of AQCRsa exceeding

standard b

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43 34 22 22 7

Number of AQCRs exceeding

2X standard . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25 3 2 2 0

Total violations . . . . . . . . . . . 68 37 24 24 7

Oxidants

Number of AQCRs exceeding

standard c

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49 46 45 41 40

Number of AQCRs exceeding

2X standard . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20 11 10 8 8

Number of AQCRs exceeding

3X standard . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 2 2 3 2

Number of AQCRs exceeding

4X standard . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 3 3 2 1

Total violations . . . . . . . . . . . 84 62 60 54 51

SOURCE Sydec/EEA, p V.40.

will be lower under Improved Environment maximum possible controls, violations will perpolicies. Thus, policies to control automobile sist, Realistically, some cities may never be able

emissions, while having only a slight effect on to meet the National Ambient Air Quality

the national aggregate of HC and NOX

, can be Standards.

expected to have an important benefit in populous areas, where automobile use is concen- Other Environmental Effects trated.

Figure 32 also shows estimates of exposure to

nitrogen dioxide in relation to two standards

that have been suggested for maximum l-hour

concentrations by the World Health Organization. The picture for nitrogen dioxide is similar

to that for photochemical oxidants. The small

overall reductions in NOX emissions due to

automobile emission controls would have disproportionately large benefits in urban areas.

The general effect of measures to reduce automobile emissions is to help lessen both the

magnitude and frequency of peak concentrations.

A major finding from these projections is that

attainment of air quality standards nationwide

will require more than automobile controls.

Emissions from other mobile sources and stationary sources also must be reduced. Even so,

the concentration of automobiles, trucks, and

industry may remain so high that, even with the

The set of policies examined in the Improved

Environment Case included measures aimed at

lessening the adverse effects of the automobile

on other aspects of the environment—noise,

solid waste disposal, water quality, and community disruption. Quantitative projections of

these effects were not made. What follows,

therefore, are general estimates of the nature

and direction of environmental effects expected

under these policies.

Noise

Automobile noise is expected to be somewhat

less in the Improved Environment Case than in

the Base Case because of reduced auto VMT

and, in 2000, because of fewer diesels on the

road. Greater reduction would be possible if

noise standards were imposed for new cars or if

there were vehicle-in-use noise standards requiring every automobile to have a properly main-
tained muffler. It is not foreseen that automobile noise will become so great as to warrant

such measures, except perhaps on a selective,

local basis.

Reduction of highway noise could be

achieved by improved roadway and tire design,

although there would be some safety penalty in

the form of reduced skid resistance. Highway

noise could also be reduced by erection of sound

barriers to screen residences, businesses, and institutions from highways. However, since

trucks and buses will continue to be the noisier

elements of the traffic stream, exclusion of

trucks and buses from noise-sensitive areas may

be the more effective noise reduction measure.

Solid Waste

The amount of solid waste from automobiles

is a function of the vehicle retirement rate,

scrappage and materials recycling practices, and

the amount of component replacement during

the lifetime of the vehicle. Greater durability of

new cars and a requirement that some percentage of every new vehicle be easily recoverable

could greatly decrease present levels of waste

from automobiles.

Methods to increase vehicle durability include

design for longer overall vehicle life, use of less

corrosive and more durable materials, and emphasis on repair rather than replacement of

components. A vehicle with an engine life expectancy of 200,000 miles would be of little use

if the body were designed to last only 50,000

miles. Conversely, a very durable body would

have very little benefit if the expected engine life

were only 50,000 miles. A long-life body and

engine would also be useless in a vehicle that

would require intricate and costly repairs or

replacements to keep the durable components

operating properly. Thus, the essential for increasing average fleet life is a combination of a

body built of durable, corrosion-resistant mate-
166 ● Changes in the Future Use and Characteristics of the Automobile Transportation System

rial, a long-lasting engine, and vehicle systems

and components that can be repaired easily.

A second way to reduce automobile waste

would be to encourage recycling of components

and materials. Batteries and tires are both commonly recovered from scrapped vehicles. Many

auto hulls are processed for their scrap metal

value. However, much of the plastic and interior materials is discarded. Present techniques

for recovery of metals use large shredders and

separators, which can operate economically only in urban areas where there is a large volume

of junk cars from which to recover metals and

components. Vehicles retired in less populous

areas are often not processed for scrap since the

cost of delivering them to a metal recovery plant

exceeds their salvage value.

At present, there are no Federal policies

directed at promoting recycling of automobile

materials. Among the policies that could be

adopted are a requirement that new cars be designed such that some percentage of the component materials can be recovered at a reasonable

cost or a policy adding a deposit to the cost of a

new car that

is recycled.

Energy

The chief

can be returned only if the vehicle

Water Quality

Water quality impacts of highway construction and use will be approximately the same

under Improved Environment policies as in the

Base Case since both have identical assumptions

about the level of Federal funding for highways

and the allocation of funds between construction and maintenance.

Community Disruption

Because capital expenditures for highways

assumed for the Improved Environment Case

are the same as for the Base Case, the projected

number of highway-related displacements is

identical. It is expected that the average annual

number of displacements will be about half

those experienced in the 1971-75 period, totaling

about 7,700 in 1985 and 6,200 in 2000.

As in the Base Case, it is projected that highway construction will be concentrated in the

outlying suburban and rural communities where

the potential for disruption of community cohesion is somewhat less than in the central cities.

Therefore, these social effects are expected to

energy impact of Improved Envidecline over the remainder of the century.

IMPACTS

ronment policies would be a reduction in automobile fuel consumption, amounting to 4 percent less than the Base Case level in 1985 and 10

percent less in 2000. These reductions would be

brought about primarily by the expected reductions in auto VMT and, in 2000, by the growing

use of electric vehicles. Table 68 summarizes

automobile fuel consumption impacts projected

under Improved Environment policies.

The projected decline in automobile VMT is

partially the result of the motor fuel tax designed to make fuel cost per mile constant

through 2000 and partially the result of urban

traffic restrictions imposed for environmental

reasons. The combined impact of these policies

would be to lower the annual consumption of

motor fuels by slightly more than 6 billion

gallons (0.4 MMBD) by 2000—a reduction of

about 10 percent from Base Case levels.

Because of the 0.4-gram-per-mile NOX standard, diesel sales will be restricted after 1990, and

the diesel fuel consumption by the auto fleet as a

whole would begin to decline sharply. By 2000,

diesel fuel consumption is expected to be only 2

percent of that forecast under Base Case conditions. Sales of gasoline-powered automobiles

are assumed to expand after 1990 to satisfy the

additional demand created by the phase: out of

diesels. Accordingly, gasoline consumption is

expected to be 27 percent higher than Base Case

levels in 2000. Another impact of this shift back

to gasoline-powered automobiles is expected to

be increased pressure on the automobile industry to improve the fuel-economy of conventionally powered vehicles as a compensation for the

phase-out of the more energy-efficient diesels.

The growing use of electric vehicles by 2000
Ch. 6—Environment Issues, Policies, and Findings ● 167

Table 68.—Automobile Energy Demand, Improved Environment Case

Automobile VMT (trillions). . . . . .

Diesel penetration (percent

of new car sales) . . . . . . . . . . . .

New car fuel economy (mpg)

Regulation— EPA certification

value. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Attained— EPA certification

value. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Attained—actual driving . . . . .

Fleet fuel economy (mpg)

Attained— EPA certification

value. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Attained—actual driving . . . . .

Annual fleet fuel consumption

Billions of gallons. . . . . . . . . . .

MMBD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Percent of domestic

consumption. . . . . . . . . . . . .

Actual

1975

1.03

(c)

None

15.6

14.0

15.1

13.6

76.0

5.0

30.6

Base Casea

1985

1.43

10

27.5

28.5

23.2

24.0

19.4

73.9

4.8

23.9

SOURCE Svdecl EEA

would improve fleet fuel economy and help offset some of the adverse impacts of phasing out

diesels. By the end of the century, it is estimated

that electric vehicles will travel about 85 billion

miles annually, resulting in net fuel savings of

about 0.2 MMBD. Since electric vehicle use is

expected to be concentrated in urban areas,

there could also be secondary benefits in the

form of small decreases in CO, HC, and NOX

emissions,

Safety

There is little safety benefit expected from Improved Environment policies per se, except for

the minor decrease in automobile crashes

brought about by the reduction in VMT. The

decreases in death, injury, and property damage

that are forecast for the Improved Environment

Case ensue from other, safety-specific policies

that have been incorporated into this policy set.

Chief among these are Level I crashworthiness,

passive restraints, and mandatory periodic safety inspections carried out in conjunction with

the nationwide program of inspection and

maintenance of emission control equipment.

2000

1.80

25

27.5

29.4

25.0

28.5

24.6

73.3

4.8

21.4

Improved Environment

1985

1.40

10

27.5

30.4

24.6

24.3

19.8

70.7

4.6

23.1

2000

1 .74b

(c)

40.0

40.0

34.0

33.4

28.3

58.3

3.8

17.8

The introduction of passive restraints and

Level I crashworthiness is expected to reduce

fatalities and injuries by about 11 percent from

Base Case levels in 1985, when about one-quarter of the fleet will be so equipped. In 2000, vehicle occupant fatalities and injuries would be

about 20 percent below projected Base Case

levels.

The inspection of safety features that is

assumed to accompany the periodic check of

emission control devices is projected to bring

about a reduction of 4 to 5 percent in traffic

crashes by 2000. The reduction of death and injury may be somewhat greater because the

crashes that occur because of failure of safety

equipment tend to be more severe than crashes

produced by other causes.

Figure 33 shows the expected safety benefits

that result from the combination of Level I

crashworthiness and periodic safety inspections.

Mobility

A major emphasis of the Improved Environment policies is reduction in automobile use for
168 ● Changes in the Future Use and Characteristics of the Automobile Transportation System

Figure 33.—Auto Occupant Fatal and Injury Crashes and Auto Property

Damage Crashes, Improved Environment Casea

(thousands)

Total crashes Total crashes Total crashes

5,116 5,660 6,378

(5,967) (6,788)

4,$57

1975 1985 2000

Auto occupant fatal crashes

‘For comparison, Base Case projections are shown in parentheses.

n

Auto occupant nonfatal injury crashes

❑

. . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . Auto property damage only crashes

SOURCE: Sydec EEA, p V-57

work travel in major urban areas as a means to

improve air quality. Specifically, the following

target levels were established for SMSAs with

populations over 1 million:

Ž For those large SMSAs with relatively good

transit service, automobile VMT by commuters would be reduced by 10 percent by

1985 and 25 percent by 2000.

● For those large SMSAs with relatively poor

transit service, automobile

muters would be reduced

2000.

If these targets were attained,

VMT by com10 percent by

the nationwide

reduction in VMT would be 57

year by 2000, or 6 percent of

VMT in the Base Case.

billion miles per

the total urban

A pure transit incentive strategy, a strategy of

improving transit services and decreasing transit

fares without pricing or regulatory actions

directed against auto use, would not achieve the

target reductions of automobile VMT. The

problem in using transit incentives by

themselves to attempt to bring about large

reductions in automobile VMT is that, even in

large SMSAs with relatively good transit service, the proportion of home-to-work trips that

can be made conveniently by conventional transit is less than 50 percent. Even in large SMSAs,
Ch. 6—Environment Issues, Policies, and Findings ● 169

more than half the

where conventional

poor, such that less

jobs are located in areas

transit service is relatively

than 1 employee in 10 currently uses mass transit to get to work. Thus,

carpooling, vanpooling, paratransit, and

transportation system management strategies

would have to play a major role in achieving

large decreases in automobile VMT.

Given that transit incentives aIone will not

produce the desired decreases in auto commuting, it will be necessary to apply other actions to increase the cost of “drive alone” commuting relative to other modes.

A study of travel changes that could be

brought about by various policies applied in the

Washington, D. C., metropolitan area concluded that the areawide application of a $3-perday parking surcharge would produce an 11-

percent decrease in auto trips to work. ” This

price increase would bring about roughly half

the decrease in VMT in large urban areas sought

by the Improved Environment policies.

Approximately half of the desired decrease in

“drive alone” commuting could also be achieved

by imposing a $6-per-day charge for all longterm parking in downtown areas of large

SMSAs. However, a potentially serious longrun impact of such severe parking fees is that

many businesses would relocate to areas not affected. This could have longrun counter-productive effects on transit and on the environmental goal of VMT reduction.

Alternatively, reductions in automobile VMT

could be achieved by actions that decrease the

travel time by carpooling or transit relative to

that required for “drive alone” commuting.

Such decreases could be provided through the

institution of exclusive or priority lanes, traffic

signalization, and transportation system management procedures that give special priorities

to buses and carpools. If transit or carpool

travel times were reduced by an average of 4

minutes per one-way trip compared to “drive

alone” commuting, it is estimated that “drive

alone” auto commuting would be reduced by

about 5 percent.

zau s Department of TranSpOrtat ion, Federa I H i~hwa]’ Adrn in - .

istration, Applications for Neu’ Trat~<l Den~an~f Forecasting TLIclI -

~zzques to Transportation fla~z~?lng hlarch ] Q77

41.117 I (1 - ‘i I - 12

Opportunities exist in most large metropolitan areas for providing priority lanes without

causing large decreases in speed on parallel

lanes. However, to achieve the carpool or transit time reduction of 4 minutes per one-way trip

for the metropolitan area as a whole, it would

be necessary to reduce the nonpriority capacity

on many already congested streets and

highways. In such circumstances, most of the

relative travel time gain for carpools and transit

would come about through increased congestion

for auto commuters. Aside from causing strong

resentment among auto commuters, this effect

would also be counterproductive from an environmental point of view. Idling automobiles

emit more pollutants per hour of operation—

and in more densely concentrated pockets—

than automobiles in smoothly flowing traffic.

Additional disincentives for “drive alone”

commuting could be achieved by providing

premium parking locations for carpools. Time

spent walking to or from an automobile is considerably more onerous than in-vehicle travel

time, such that drivers would spend an additional 3 to 5 minutes of in-vehicle travel time to

reduce their walk time by 1 minute. If premium

parking locations were provided for carpools,

such that an average metropolitan areawide

reduction of 1 minute in walking time would

result, an additional 5-percent reduction in

“drive alone” commuting might be expected.

The three actions discussed above—increasing the cost of “drive alone” commuting, reducing carpool and vanpool travel time by an average of 4 minutes, and providing preferential

parking for carpools—could produce the target

reductions in VMT sought in the Improved Environment Case.

One possible consequence of such transit and

ridesharing promotion programs that has not

been adequately evaluated is that additional

trips might be made by other household members in the car left at home. To some extent,

these trips might defeat the purpose of measures

to discourage “drive alone” commuting by

merely substituting one automobile trip for

another. However, such trips would probably

not be to congested downtown areas during

rush hours. It is the use of automobiles in heavily traveled corridors at peak periods that creates
170 . Changes in the Future Use and Characteristics ot the Automobile Transportation System

much of the air pollution problem; transit and

ridesharing incentives seek to reduce these types

of trips. Presumably, much of the travel induced by the availability of automobiles that

would otherwise be used for commuting would

occur at times and places that would not contribute significantly to air pollution.

The Washington, D. C., mode split model was

used to estimate the impacts of decreased commuting by auto on transit ridership. About 30

percent of the decrease in auto commuting

would occur through diversion to transit while

the remaining 70 percent would occur through

transportation system management actions to

increase carpooling and paratransit usage. The

effect of this diversion to transit, together with

the effect of increasing transit vehicle miles,

would be to increase total transit ridership from

5.6 billion revenue passengers in 1975 to 7.1

billion in 1985 and 8.7 billion in 2000. Transit

ridership under Improved Environment policies

would thus be 35 percent higher in 2000 than

under the Base Case.

Cost and Capital

Under Improved Environment policies, gasoline prices (including tax) would be 89.9 cents

per gallon in 1985 and 123.5 cents per gallon in

2000. This represents increases of 12.2 cents and

1.7 cents per gallon, respectively, over Base

Case prices. On a per-mile basis, this amounts

to increased fuel costs of 0.3 to 0.5 cent compared to the Base Case in 1985. For 2000, the

difference between fuel cost per mile for the two

cases is negligible.

In addition to increasing fuel costs, Improved

Environment policies would also cause automobile maintenance costs to rise. It is estimated

that mandatory inspection and maintenance of

emission control equipment would add between

0.4 and 0.5 cent per mile to the cost of owning

and operating an automobile in 2000, compared

to the Base Case.

The total increase in operating costs per mile

for the Improved Environment policies ranges

from 0.7 to 1.0 cents per mile in 1985 compared

with the Base Case, an increment of about 5 percent. In 2000, the cost increases would be 0.4 to

0.5 cent per mile, or about 3 percent higher than

the Base Case.

One measure to reduce air pollution in the

Improved Environment Case is the application

of strong cost disincentives for commuting to

work by automobile. Adding $3 per round trip

to the cost of “drive alone” commuting would

amount to $34 billion per year. Assuming 20

miles as the length of the average round trip to

work, this would constitute an increase of 15

cents per vehicle mile, or a doubling of the

average operating cost for work trips. If there

were no other penalty charges applied to automobile travel, the increase would average 2

cents per vehicle mile for all travel.

Auto sales and size class distribution under

Improved Environment policies are projected to

be about the same as those under the petroleum

conservation policies discussed in chapter 5. Improved Environment policies are expected to

have little or no impact on auto prices through

1985. However, after 1990, when the 0.4-gramper-mile NOX standard goes into effect, the cost

of the improved emission control equipment

would add between $5o and $2OO to the price of

a new car.

ANALYSIS OF INDIVIDUAL POLICIES

These policies are frequently suggested to deal 3. Mandatory inspection and maintenance of

with the problem of automobile emissions: vehicles in use.

1. Regional standards (the so-called two-car None of these policies is proposed as a replacestrategy), ment for the present new car emission standards. Rather, they would serve as supplemen2. Tradeoff between control of mobile and tary measures to enhance the effect of new car

stationary sources, and standards or as a way to deal with aspects of the
Ch. 6—Environment Issues, Policies, and Findings ● 171

automobile emissions problem not adequately

addressed by new car standards.

The following’ analysis is intended to shed

light on the applicability and effectiveness of

these measures in reducing air pollution from

automotive sources in the period 1985-2000.

Regional Standards

Present Federal policy on automobile emissions is, in effect, a regional or two-car strategy.

The 1977 Clean Air Act amendments allow the

States to adopt either the Federal emission

standards for new cars or the somewhat stricter

standards now in force in California. It has been

suggested that the present strategy be modified

to allow two different standards to be set within

each State—a strict standard in areas of high air

pollution (primarily large metropolitan areas),

and a somewhat relaxed standard for less populous parts of the State where air pollution is not

a problem. Such a policy would allow automobile manufacturers to produce two rather different types of vehicles —’’city cars” very much like

those designed to meet the present 1981 Federal

standards, and “country cars” whose emissions

would be somewhat higher (perhaps on the

order of 15 grams per mile CO, 1.5 grams per

mile HC, and 2 grams per mile NOX

).

The logic behind this modified two-car

strategy is that air pollution is basically a

localized urban problem that does not correspond to State boundaries. Many States have

severe air pollution problems in one or more

metropolitan areas, but virtually no problem in

the remainder of the State, covering perhaps as

much as 80 or 90 percent of the land area and

including up to half of the State’s population. By

applying automobile emission standards selectively, States could avoid the inequity of

penalizing some owners by making them have

emission control equipment they do not need in

order to reduce air pollution in other areas

where automobile use is concentrated.

A quantitative analysis of regional standards

was not made in this assessment. The comments

that follow are offered to suggest the major

policy questions raised by establishing such a

two-car standard and to indicate the avenue of

inquiry that should be taken.

The major advantage of the regional two-car

strategy is its purported efficiency. Measures to

control automobile emissions would be applied

only where they are needed, Residents of unaffected areas would be spared the unnecessary

expense of pollution control equipment. Thus,

the efficiency of this policy is both technical

(reduced auto emission in cities) and economic

(the costs are borne chiefly by those whose use

of automobiles creates the problem). Regional

standards may also be more cost-effective than

other nationally applied emission control policies, although this point has not been firmly

established.

The disadvantages of a regional two-car

strategy lie primarily in implementation. For the

standards to be effective, it would be necessary

to obtain the cooperation and support of 50

State governments and hundreds of local jurisdictions. Since many metropolitan areas span

State boundaries, it wouId also be necessary for

some states to reach bilateral or trilateral

agreements to coordinate standards and enforce

compliance. Registration of vehicles and determination of which standard each vehicle in the

State should meet could be a cumbersome process, both at the time of initial sale and subsequent resale. Since standards would probably

be applied on a county-by-county basis, the

burden on the administrative apparatus of

county governments could be enormous.

Automobile manufacturers are likely to oppose regional standards. The higher cost of cars

equipped to meet urban standards might reduce

sales, without any prospect of recouping these

losses through increased sales of less expensive

cars in rural areas. Because of economies of

scale in manufacturing, the present single standard might yield 1ower new car prices than a

regional two-car standard, which would call for

two somewhat different product lines. A detailed analysis of the comparative costs needs to

be made both to determine the impacts on consumers and to assess the consequences for industry profitability and production.

Mobile-Stationary Source Tradeoff

The projections of air quality for 1985 a n d

2000 under Base Case and Improved Environment policies indicate that, for HC and NOX

,
172 . Changes in the Future Use and Characteristics of the Automobile Transportation System

automobile emissions will constitute a small and

diminishing fraction of the total of these

pollutants from all sources. By 2000, automobile-emitted hydrocarbons will make up about

10 percent of the national aggregate, and automobiles and other mobile sources combined are

expected to account for only one-quarter of all

hydrocarbon emissions. The picture for NOX is

similar. Automobiles are projected to emit less

than 10 percent of all NOX in 2000, and other

mobile sources will emit an additional 18 percent. Thus, the major share of these pollutants

(70 to 75 percent) will come from stationary

sources.

These figures are national aggregates and do

not necessarily reflect the situation that is expected to exist in many urban areas where, because of concentrated vehicular traffic, automobiles and trucks may continue to be large (if

not major) sources of pollution. Still, it appears

that consideration should be given to tradeoffs

between mobile and stationary source standards. These tradeoffs might be applied either as

an alternative to setting new and stricter standards for automobiles after 1985 or as a way of

relaxing existing standards for one or n-tore

automobile-emitted pollutants in the interest of

reducing cost or improving fuel economy.

An illustration of how this tradeoff policy

might be applied can be seen in the question of

whether to tighten the NOX standard for new

cars from 1.0 gram per mile to 0.4 gram per mile

after 1985. The cost-effectiveness of various

control measures for mobile and stationary

sources was analyzed by the Federal Task Force

on Motor Vehicle Goals Beyond 1980. 29 The results of this analysis, shown in table 69 and figure 34, indicate that—in terms of cost-effectiveness—several strategies aimed at stationary

sources are superior to a stricter NOX standard

for automobiles.

In all, nine measures to control mobile or stationary source NOX emissions were considered

in the analysis. The cumulative effect of the six

that ranked highest on the criterion of cost-effectiveness (four measures to control stationary

sources, one for trucks, and a I. O-gram-per-mile

standard for automobiles) was an annual reduc-

‘W, S. Department of Transportation, The Report by the Federal

Task Force on Motor Vehicle Goals Beyond 1980, pp. 10-1 to 10-.s.

tion of 14 million tons of NOX at a cost of $4

billion per year. 30 By adopting the remaining

three measures on the list, an additional 8

million tons of NOX could be removed from the

atmosphere per year, but at a further cost of $9

billion per year.

The cost-effectiveness of automobile NOx

standards of 1.0 gram per mile and 0.4 gram per

mile can be compared to that of various stationary source controls by examining figure 34.

The I .()-gram-per-mile standard has a cost-effectiveness rate of $450 per ton of NOx removed

and ranks sixth among all measures. The 0.4-

gram-per-mile standard has a cost-effectiveness

rate of $2,300 per ton—the 1east cost-effective of

the nine measures considered.

Analysis such as this indicates that control of

stationary sources would be the more effective

expenditure of funds to achieve an overall

reduction in NOX emissions. Further, lowering

the automobile NOX standard from 1.0 gram per

mile to 0.4 gram per mile appears to yield rather

small benefits in terms of the cost incurred.

Changing the standard from 2.0 to 1.0 gram per

mile would remove 1.91 million tons of NOX

from the atmosphere per year, at a cost of $45o

per ton. Reducing the standard from 1.0 to 0.4

gram per mile would remove an additional 1.15

million tons of NOX per year and cost $2,300 per

ton. In other words, 60 percent more benefit but

at a cost 5 times greater.

Cost, however, is but one criterion for making tradeoffs. Consideration must also be given

to other criteria, such as the relative importance

of each type of emission source in the overall

pattern of air pollution. For example, there is

some evidence from a recent study of smog formation in the Los Angeles Air Basin31 that emissions from automobiles figure more prominently than stationary source emissions in severe

smog episodes. If this interpretation of the data

is confirmed and similar results are found in

‘“The projected emission reductions cited here should not be

confused with those given elsewhere in this report. The figures

here are from the Federal Task Force report and are based on a different forecasting methodology from that used by OTA. The projections by the Federal Task Force and OTA, while in general

agreement, cannot be compared point by point.

“A. Eschenroeder, Applications of the Los Angeles Reactive

Pollutant Program (LARPP) to the Assessment of Proposed

California Emission Controls, presented to the California Air

Resources Board Workshop, Jan. 5-6, 1977.
Ch. 6—Environment Issues, Policies, and Findings ● 173

Table 69.—Cost Effectiveness of Control Strategies for NOX Emission in 2000

0/0 of Cumulative Cumulative

NOX baseline 0/0 of cost Annual cost Cumulative NO,

removed emissions baseline effective- of strategy annual cost removed

Control strategy (106 tons) removed a

removed ness ($/ton) (billions $) (billions $) (106 tons)

1

2

3

4

New utility boilers from

25% to 50% control . . . . . . . . . 3.52

Industrial boilers from

25°/0 to 65°/0 control . . . . . . . . . 2.46

Existing utility boilers from

25% to 50% control . . . . . . . . . 0.62

Stationary internal combustion engines from 25% to

50% controlb

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.87

Other mobile from 10 gm/

mile to 80°/0 control . . . . . . . . . 2.9

Lightweight vehicles from

2.0 to 1.0 gin/mile . . . . . . . . . . . 1.91

Utility boilers from 50%

to 90°/0 control . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.62

Stationary internal combustion engines from 75% to

90°/0 control. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.86

. Light utility vehicles from

100

150

225

0.35

0.37

0.14

0.35

0.72

0.86

3.5

6.0

6.6

11

7

2

11

18

20

9

9

6

20

29

38

44

64

340

450

450

1,200

0.98

1.3

0.86

7.94

1.84

3.14

4.0

11.94

9.5

12.4

14.31

20.93

5

6

7

8

3 67 1,700 1.46 13.43 21.79

9

1.0 to 0.4 gin/mile . . . . . . . . . . . 1.15 3 70 2,300 2.65 16.08 22.94

Figure 34.—Cost-Effectiveness of NOX Control Strategies

NO, removed by

changing LDVs from

1.0 to 0.4 gm/mile

9

NO, control strategies

25 New utility boilers from

25% to 50% control

Industrial boilers from

25% to 65%. control

Existing utility boilers

from 25% to 50% control

Internal combustion

engines from 25% to

75°. control

Other mobile from 10

gm/mile to 800/0 control

“Light-duty vehicles”

from 2,0 to 1.0 gm/mile

Utility boilers from

50% to 90% control

Internal combustion

engines from 75% to

900/o control

LDV from 1.0 to 0.4

1.

2.

3.

4.

5

6.

7

8

9

NOX removed by

changing LDVs from

2.O to 1.0 gm/mile

B

20

/

5

—

6

Cost of removing NO,

by changing LDVs from

1.0 to 0.4 gm/mile

5

gin/mile 1 1

5 10 15

Cumulative annual cost (billions of dollars)

NOTE: Baseline emissions = 34,1 x 106 tons in 2000 and IS based uponLDV standard 2.0 gin/mile, other mobile 10 gin/mile, 25%. control

of all stationary source emissions

SOURCE U S Department of Transportation, The Report by the Federal Task Force on Motor Vehicle Goals Beyond 1980, p 10-3

Ch. 6—Environment Issues, Policies, and Findings ● 175

other cities, a much stronger argument can be

made for a stricter automobile NOX standard

despite its relatively high cost.

A second, somewhat different example of the

need for a policy that permits tradeoffs can be

found in the comparison between emissions

from gasoline-powered vehicles and those from

powerplants producing electricity for batterypowered vehicles. In this case, the tradeoff to be

made is not between alternative measures to

control a single pollutant but between different

types of pollutants. The results of one such analysis are shown in table 70.

This analysis indicates that the use of electric

vehicles would result in the virtual elimination

of carbon monoxide and hydrocarbon emissions, even if the powerplants were fired by

coal. Nitrogen oxides and sulfur dioxide, however, would be emitted in much greater quantities. The emission of NOX

, in terms of the

equivalent per vehicle mile, would be 3 to 4

times higher for electric vehicles. Sulfur dioxide

emissions would be 20 to 30 times higher. Thus,

the potential use of electric vehicles forces a

tradeoff that must take into consideration not

only the quantities of each type of pollutant, but

also the comparative cost and technical feasibility of mobile and stationary source controls.

Regardless of the importance attached to

these two examples of mobile-stationary source

tradeoffs, one point emerges clearly. No single

pollution control measure—whether it is

directed at automobiles or other sources—is

uniformly superior in all situations and for all

pollutants. A mixture of controls (some for

mobile sources, others for stationary sources)

will be required. Further, this mixture will

almost certainly have to be varied from site to

site. What is optimum for one city may be inadequate for another.

Substantiation of this point can be found in

the analysis of present and future air quality

problems performed for three U.S. cities during

this assessment. The cities studied were Washington, D. C., Houston, Tex., and Chicago,

Ill.,—each representative of a certain urban

situation. Washington is a city with very little

industry and a high dependence on automobile

transportation. Houston is also a city with a

heavy degree of automobile use, but it has a

much greater amount of industry, notably

petroleum refining. Automobile use in Chicago

is also high, but Chicago has an extensive and

well-developed transit system. The industrialization of the Chicago area is intense.

Figures 35, 36, and 37 show the actual and

projected levels of CO, HC, and NOX emissions

in these three cities for 1975, 1985, and 2000.

More significant than the absolute quantities of

pollutants is the way in which the distribution

by source changes over time and from city to

city. No attempt is made here to draw detailed

conclusions about the relative effectiveness of

different control measures. The figures speak

for themselves and illustrate the basic point that

future air poIlution control strategies must be

both flexible and selectively applied.

Table 70.— Electric-Vehicle Emisisons Compared

to Gasoline-Vehicle Emissions, 2000

Electric-vehicle powerplant emissions’

Gasoline vehicle

Type of (composite) Coal fired Oil fired

emission (gm/mi) (gm/mi) (gm/mi)

Carbon monoxide . . . 3.78 0.012-0.021 0.0001

Hydrocarbons . . . . . . 0.461 0.004-0.007 0.0001

Nitrogen oxidesb . . . . 0.588 1.51-2.66 0.649-1.14

Sulfur dioxide’. . . . . . 0.13 2.597-4.57 1.731-3.02
176 ● Changes in the Future Use and Characteristics of the Automobile Transportation System

Figure 35.— Projected Carbon Monoxide Emissions for Washington, Houston, and Chicago

(thousands of tons) -

1975 1985

Washington

1,005 356

2000

344

Houston

1,307 623 586

Chicago

2,742

. . . . . . . . .

Other mobile

Stationary

959
Ch. 6—Environment Issues, Policies, and Findings ● 177

Figure 36.— Projected Hydrocarbon Emissions for Washington, Houston, and Chicago

(thousands of tons)

1975 1985

Washington

183 126

Houston

Chicago

363

920

322

Key

i

. . . . .

. . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . .. .,, . . . . . . . . . .

887

Auto

Other mobile

Stationary

2000

150

305

SOURCE Sydec EEA, pp V-48, V-50 and V-53
178 ● Changes in the Future Use and Characteristics of the Automobile Transportation System

Figure 37.— Projected Nitrogen Oxide Emissions for Washington, Houston, and Chicago

(thousands of tons)

1975 1985 2000

Washington

208

Houston

401

Chicago

700

225

501

923

264

593

1,072

SOURCE: SydeclEEA, pp. V-48, V-50 and V-53
Mandatory Inspection and Maintenance

The projected effects of a program of inspection and maintenance of vehicles in use were

presented earlier in this chapter. It was found

that inspection and maintenance could yield

substantial benefits—the largest of any environmental measure considered—if adopted nationwide and consistently enforced. The purpose of

the discussion offered here is to examine some of

the factors that would influence the implementation of the program and its potential cost to the

public.

To implement the program would require

that inspection stations be set up in all localities,

either in private service stations and garages or

in State-operated facilities, to measure the

amounts of CO and HC in automobile exhaust.

At present, there is no rapid and practical test

for NOX or evaporative HC, and no inspection

procedure for these emissions is assumed for this

discussion. Based on empirical data on emissions from vehicles of various ages, the controlling Government agency would establish emission standards. Some percentage of the vehicles

in each age group would fail the inspection, and

owners would be required to effect the necessary

adjustments, repairs, or replacements and submit to reinspection.

An inspection and maintenance program

could be administered and implemented in several ways. Two of the most likely methods

would be State-run inspection centers or certification of private service stations as inspection

stations. The former would give the State or

local government a direct role in the inspection

process, whereas the latter would delegate a

large portion of the responsibility for the program to private service station operators. Both

programs would require special equipment to

analyze emissions. Costs can range from $2,000

per analyzer for an idle mode test to $12,000 per

analyzer for a test that simulates the various

driving modes.

Both programs would require employment

and training of personnel. The State-run inspection would need personnel to run the facility

and to perform the inspections. Maintenance

would be carried out at a private station or

garage of the owner’s choice. The privately run

Ch. 6—Environment Issues, Policies, and Findings ● 179

program would require State personnel to train

the service station employees in the use of the

equipment and to certify and to check on their

proficiency. In either case, it would be necessary

for the agency responsible for the program to

have legislative authority to inspect private

vehicles and require maintenance if emissions

exceeded a specified level.

An appreciation of the complexities of establishing a nationwide system of inspection can be

gained by looking at the efforts of DOT to establish the Periodic Motor Vehicle Inspection

(PMVI) program for safety features. In 1966,

DOT encouraged States to establish inspection

programs to assure the safety of vehicles on the

road. Twenty-three States voluntarily established PMVI programs. In 1967, 10 more States

passed laws in response to the Highway Safety

Act that provided for withholding Federal

highway funds from States without PMVI programs. Table 71 shows the results of DOT’s effort to encourage State inspection programs

over the 6- year period between 1969 and 1974.

Aside from the original 32, no State adopted a

true periodic inspection program during this

period, but three States adopted programs of inspection of vehicles at the time of title transfer

or on the spot or on a random basis. The inability of DOT to expand the concept after the initial

flurry has been attributed to several factors:

●

●

●

●

The cost of establishing a thorough national program,

Disagreement on appropriate levels of

standards and testing,

Inability to demonstrate the benefits of the

program, and

Adverse public reaction to inefficient or unethical testing practices and subsequent repair costs.

This experience suggests that an inspection

program is likely to be successful only if the

following conditions are met:

●

●

•

There is a simple uniform testing procedure

that is easily implemented and audited.

The costs of the program are kept within

acceptable limits.

The benefits of the program are projected

before the program starts and updated with
180 ● Changes in the Future Use and Characteristics of Automobile Transportation System

Table 71 .—State Motor Vehicle Inspection Programs

1969 1974

Registered vehicles Registered vehicles

(millions) (millions)

Type of inspection No. of Statesa Total Inspected No. of Statesa

Total Inspected

No inspection . . . . . . . . . . . 10 23 0 7 25 0

Spot/title transfer . . . . . . . . 9 25 3 12 35 8

Annual inspection. . . . . . . . 25 45 45 25 57 57

Semiannual inspection. . . . 7 12 12 7 14 14

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51 105 60 51 131 79

Percent of registered

vehicles inspected . . . — 57% — — 61‘A —

actual results after the program is in operation.

These three areas of concern—testing procedures, cost, and benefits—are closely tied.

Currently, there are a variety of testing procedures that could be used. They can be grouped

in two categories:

1. Direct examination of specific maladjustments and malfunctions using conventional or more sophisticated garage-type

equipment, and

2. Indirect diagnosis of engine maladjustments and malfunctions using measurements of exhaust emission levels under

different engine loadings .32

No single procedure is ideally suited to all situations. However, in the interests of uniformity

and ease of administration on a nationwide

basis, it may be desirable to adopt a common

procedure. If so, the procedure should meet the

following minimum criteria:

• All cars should be inspected on a periodic

basis, either annually or semiannually, on a

schedule that coincides with vehicle registration.

‘ZO. P. Hall, 1r., and N. A. Richardson, The Ecot~om~c E~~ecti~leuess of Vehirlc Inspection Malntenurlce as a Mea)ls for Redt~cirz,g Exhaust Em ~ssi(lus A Qua~~titati7~e Appralsul Society of

Automotive Engineers, Automotive Engineering Congress

(Detroit: Feb. 15-Mar. 1, 1974).

● The inspection costs should be low so as

not to impose economic hardship. 33

● The inspection program must provide for

mandatory maintenance and repair. 34

The question of payment for maintenance and

repair or replacement is particularly troublesome. One method is to include the cost of

repair or maintenance in the inspection fee. The

cost of repair could be averaged for all vehicles

inspected. Another method would be to increase

the initial cost of the emissions control devices

to include warranty coverage for necessar y

maintenance and repairs. If automobile or

equipment manufacturers were obligated to

provide this insurance, as they presently do in

warranties on other parts of the automobile, an

additional benefit gained from the program

would be an incentive for the manufacturer to

produce reliable and durable emission control

systems that are easy and inexpensive to repair

or maintain.

It would probably be necessary for the Federal Government to assume financial responsibility for the development of a uniform testing

program and for disseminating information to

State personnel. Once the program is in opera-

“The State of Arizona provides an inspection program that

costs $S per vehicle, which is entirely covered by increased

registration fees. The State of New York has estimated that emissions testing would cost $3.72 per vehicle inspected if the program

were State-administered. Both of these States were costing programs to test vehicles under both idle and loaded conditions.

“0.P. Hall, Jr., and N.A. Richardson.
Ch. 6—Environment Issues, Policies, and Findings . 181

tion, the Federal Government would have to

fund the monitoring of the program on a national level. The States would have to fund initial expenses of establishing the programs,

unless the Federal Government were to provide

grants to cover these costs, Federal funds might

also be necessary either to operate the program

or to monitor privately operated test facilities.

However, these expenses might be recovered

through inspection fees, as in the State of

Arizona. The consumer would probably have to

pay the inspection fee and the cost of maintenance either by means of the inspection fee or by

increased cost of emissions control devices if a

warranty system for emission control equipment could be devised. Automobile manufacturers would incur higher expenses in covering

the emission control equipment under warranty, but this cost would almost certainly be

passed along to the owner.

The political impacts of the program would

also be important. From DOT’s experience in

trying to implement the PMVI program, it is obvious that Federal standards for testing and the

threat of withholding Federal funds from States

are not sufficient to guarantee adoption of an inspection and maintenance program. In order to

achieve uniform testing in all States, it would

probably require some form of Federal

legislation—either a mandate or a strong system

of incentives. States, in turn, would have to pass

enabling legislation to modify portions of their

legal codes–a process that would be lengthy

and fraught with political difficulties.

Table 72 is a summary of the impacts that a

mandatory inspection and maintenance program could have on Federal and State governments, consumers, and the automobile industry.

Table 72.—impacts of Mandatory Testing and Maintenance of Emissions Control Devices

Cost impacts Political impacts Other impacts

Federal Funding for development Legislation requiring Additional personnel for

of uniform test procedure. State participation. program development and

monitoring.

Funding for initial program

development.

Funding for national

monitoring.

State Funding for establishing Changes of vehicle Additional personnel for

program. registration procedures system operation and

Funding for either oper- or new procedures to monitoring.

ating or monitoring require testing of

testing and repair vehicles.

procedures.

Funding for data collec- Decreased State indetion and processing. pendence in solving

emissions problems.

Consumer Increased cost of either Inconvenience and time

vehicle registration or required for inspection

emissions control and maintenance

devices. Independent automobile

repair.

Shift of some personnel

to testing and repair

programs.

Automobile Increased cost and Increased incentive for

maintenance inconvenience of insur- reliable, maintenance-free

ing emissions control emissions control devices.

devices.

SOURCE Sff/ p G 35
Chapter 7

SAFETY ISSUES, POLICIES,

AND FINDINGS

..&s+w -

. .

+

●

.
Chapter 7.—SAFETY ISSUES, POLICIES, AND FINDINGS

Page

Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 185

Background . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 185

Traffic Crash Data. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .189

Crashes. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . +. . .............190

Deaths. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ...........190

Injury . . . . . . . . . . . ........................192

Cost . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .....................192

Present Policy. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 196

Motor Vehicle Safety Standards. . ...........196

Safety Defect Recall Campaigns . ...........196

State and Local Highway Safety Programs. ...198

Other Related Policies.. . ..................200

Projections . . . . . . . ..*.*... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 200

lssues and Policies .. .......................201

Issues . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ....201

Policy Framework. . .......................204

Highway Design . .........................204

Vehicle Design Features . . . . . . . . ...........211

Vehicles in Use. . .........................214

User Performance . .......................215

Speed . . . . . . . . . . . . .......................217

Alcohol Use.... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. ...219

Support Systems . ........................220

Goals . . . . . . . . . . . ........................220

LIST OF TABLES

Table No. Page

73. 1977 Crash Data. . .......................186

74. Leading Causes of Deaths for 1975. ... ... 186

75. Motor Vehicle Deaths by Nations . . . . . . . . . ..189

76. Estimates of Death Rate for Transportation

Modes in the United States. . ..............189

77. Crash Data by Vehicle Type, 1976...........190

78. Fatal Crashes 1975-77: Number of

Persons, Crashes,Vehicles, and Fatalities

by Vehicle Type . ........................191

79. Abbreviated lnjury Scale Severity Code3:

Severe (Not Life-Threatening). . ............193

80. Motor Vehicle lnjuries, 1975...............194

81. injuries in the United States, 1977..........194

82. Estimated Cost of Traffic Crashes in 1977 ...195

83. National Safety Council Summary of Motor

Vehicle Accident Ccsts in 1976............195

84. Chronology of Federal Motor Vehicle Safety

Standards and Regulations. . ..............197

85.

86.

87.

88.

89.

90

91.

92.

93.

94

95

96.

Page

Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards,

Near-Term lmprovements Under

Consideration for PassengerVehicles .. ....198

Federal Highway Safety Program Standards .199

Safety Issues . ..........................202

Traffic Crash Causation. . .................202

Ranking of Counte rmeasures by Decreasing

Cost-Effectiveness in Present VaIue Dollars

PerTotal Fatalities Forestalled—

1O-Year Total. . . . ........................207

Ranking of Countermeasures by lncreasing

Costs of implementation in Present Value

Dollars-10-YearTotal. . ..................208

Ranking of Countermeasures byDecreasing

Potential to Forestall Fatalities and lnjury

Accidents—10-YearTotal . ................209

Countermeasures Related to Highway

Design— 1O-YearTotal. . . . . ...............210

Part A.—Occupant Crash Protection System

Effectiveness Estimates; Part B—

Effectiveness of Occupant Crash Protection

Systems . . . . . . . . . .......................212

Vehicle Crashworthiness and Damageability

Levels . ................................21 4

Effectiveness of Level ll Crashworthiness

With AirCushion Restraint Systems . .......214

Effect of Safety Belt Usage Laws Around

the Worid-Februaryl, 1977...............216

LIST OF FIGURES

Figure No. Page

38. 1975 Loss of Working Life-Annual

Man-Years . . . . . . . .......................187

39. Traffic Deaths byAgeGroups. . ............187

40. Motor-VehicleTrave~ Deaths,and Death

Rates . . . . . . . . . . . .......................188

41. Trends in Death Rates, . . . . . . . . . . .........188

42. Percent Distribution of Fatalities by Principal

Impact Point... . ........................192

43. MotorVehicleDeaths, 1975-2000...........201

44. issues, Policies, and Strategies for

Traffic Safety . ..........................205

45. Policy Analysis Flow Diagram . ............206

46. Two Research Safety Vehicles . ...........,213
SAFETY ISSUES, POLICIES, CHAPTER

AND FINDINGS

7

SUMMARY

The current annual toll of motor vehicle

crashes is almost 48,000 deaths and over 4 million injuries. The estimated monetary cost to

society is approximately $44 billion, Despite

existing Federal policies, regulations, and programs dealing with automobile and highway

safety, and despite the introduction of new safety features, such as passive restraints, the annual toll is expected to keep rising, By 2000,

there could be as many as 64,000 deaths and

over 5 million injuries annually.

The major aspects of the system that need to

be addressed to improve safety are vehicle and

highway design and driver behavior. All have

been the subject of Federal highway and traffic

safety policies and programs, and it appears

that these efforts by the Federal Government

have had a beneficial effect. The rate of fatalities

per vehicle mile has been reduced nearly 40 percent in the past decade. In absolute numbers,

however, the annual toll remains high and is expected to rise steadily in the coming years as the

result of more cars on the road, more drivers,

and more miles of travel, Additional policies

and programs to stem the trend of increasing

death and injury should be considered.

In the near term, safety benefits could be

realized rapidly from policies to promote increased use of seat belts (passive restraints will

not be in widespread use for many years) and to

enforce adherence to the 55 mph speed limit.

Potentially great benefits could also be achieved

by measures to reduce the use of alcohol associated with driving.

In the long term, increased crashworthiness

and improved occupant restraint systems are

two aspects of vehicle design that could produce

significant reductions in death and injury. For

highways, the greatest benefits could be

achieved by a general program to eliminate

roadside hazards or to provide crash attenuation.

As a long-term strategy, the Federal Government may also wish to consider the policy of

establishing a comprehensive set of specific and

quantitative safety goals. This policy, analogous to those which established national goals

for clean air and fuel economy, could provide

the basis for planning, implementing, and

evaluating individual safety measures. Safety

goals could also provide for more effective coordination of Federal, State, and local programs

and could help in determining the appropriate

allocation of resources.

BACKGROUND

The safety of the automobile transportation to society are estimated to be $44 billion annualsystem is a severe and long-standing problem. ly. (See table 73. )

For many years, highway deaths have accounted for over 90 percent of all the transpor- In this century, approximately 2 million pertation-related deaths in the country. In 1977, the sons have died and nearly 100 million have been

toll on streets and highways amounted to 47,715 injured through the use of motor vehicles—a

deaths and over 4.3 million injuries. The costs total that is more than 3 times the combat losses
186 ● Changes in the Future Use and Characteristics of the Automobile Transportation System

Table 73.—1977 Crash Data

Crashes a . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17,600,000

Vehicles involveda . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29,800,000

Injuries b

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4,392,000

Deaths C . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47,700

Auto occupants . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27,400

Van, pickup occupants . . . . . . . . . . . 5,200

Motorcycle . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4,100

Pedestrian & cyclists. . . . . . . . . . . . . 8,600

Truck, bus, and other. . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,400

Estimated costd . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $44billion

suffered by the United States in all wars.1 The

Nation’s vehicles and highways claim more

American lives each year than were lost in either

the Korean or Southeast Asia Wars. On the

average, a highway fatality occurs every 11

minutes and an injury every 9 seconds.

In 1975, motor vehicle crashes accounted for

2.4 percent of total reported deaths in the United

States and ranked as the sixth leading cause of

death. (See table 74. ) Accidents of all kinds accounted for 103,000 deaths and 10.7 million injuries in 1975, and motor vehicle crashes represented approximately 45 percent of the total accidental deaths and 37 percent of the injuries.

Measured in terms of working life lost, traffic

Table 74.—Leading Causes of Deaths for 1975

Percent

Causes Number of Total

Diseases of the heart. . . 716,215 37.8

Malignant neoplasms . . 365,693 19.3

Cerebrovascular disease 194,038 10.3

Other accidents. . . . . . . 57,177 3.0

Pneumonia . . . . . . . . . . . 51,387 2.7

Motor vehicle crashes . . 45,853 2.4

‘National Safety Council, Accident Facts, 1977 Edition,

deaths represent a social problem comparable to

heart disease and cancer. (See figure 38. )

Motor vehicle crashes are the leading cause of

death in the 15 to 34 age group. About half of

the yearly death toll consists of persons in that

age bracket. As shown in figure 39, the proportion of young adults that die in traffic crashes

far exceeds the relative size of this age group in

the population as a whole.

Over the years, the general trend has been a

continuing increase in the number of traffic

fatalities. A high point of 56,000 deaths was

reached in 1973. A sharp drop to 46,000 deaths

occurred in 1974, due in part to the 55 mph

speed limit and the temporary reduction in auto

travel brought about by the gasoline shortage.

Since then, the number of fatalities has risen

again but still remains below the peak of 1973.

While the number of traffic deaths has grown

over the years, the fatality rate (deaths per 100

million miles of vehicle travel) has steadily

declined—from 18 per 100 million miles in 1925

to 3.25 per 100 million miles in 1977. Thus ,

while the death rate is decreasing, the steady rise

in the number of autos and miles of travel has

resulted in a growing number of traffic deaths.

(See figure 40.)

Traffic mortality on a population basis increased in the years 1960 to 1973, but declined

in 1974, consistent with the sharp drop in

fatalities. (See figure 41. ) The traffic death rate

per hundred thousand population has ranged

from about 20 to 30 over the last five decades.

While the death rate per vehicle mile traveled

is relatively low in this country, the death rate

per 100,000 population is on the high side compared with other nations. Industrialized countries in general rank high in transportation mortality rates—with some exceptions, notably

Japan, Great Britain, Sweden, and East Germany. (See table 75. )

When stated in terms of passenger miles of

travel, as shown in table 76, the death rate for

automobiles is among the highest of all modes

of transportation. Automobile travel is considerably more dangerous than bus, rail, and

airline travel, but a much safer form of transport than motorcycle and general aviation.
3

2

S

“

death

Other

accidents

Heart

disease Cancer

Figure 39.—Traffic Deaths by Age Groups

40

34.7

16.9

9.4 8.8 .

1

0-4 5-14 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 OVER 65

Age group
188 . Changes in the Future Use and Characteristics o/ the Automobile Transportation System

140

80

60

40

20

0

Motor-Vehicle Travel, Deaths, and Death Rates

35

.

/

,

/ “

/

/ \ \

1925 1930 1935 1940 1950 955 1960 1965 1970 1975

41 .—Trends in Death Rates

50

40

30

20

10

0

E

15

10

5

0

,

1910 1915 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975
Ch. 7—Safety Issues, Policies, and Findings ● 189

Table 75.—Motor Vehicle Deaths By Nationsa

Deaths per

100,000

Nat ion Year Deaths population

, Chile . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Japan, . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

England-Wales. . . . . . . . . . . . .

Norway . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Greece. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Sweden . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

East Germany. . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Mexico . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Denmark . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Ireland. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Switzerland. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Israel . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Czechoslovakia . . . . . . . . . . . .

United States . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

France. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

West Germany . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Australia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Austria. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Portugal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

1974

1975

1974

1974

1974

1975

1975

1974

1975

1974

1975

1974

1973

1974

1974

1974

1974

1974

1975

1975

1,115

14,206

6,372

549

1,297

1,236

2,578

8,887b

849

562

1,237

563

2,958

46,402b

11,786’

14,242

6,325b

3,816

2,483

3,299

11.1

12.8

13.0

13.8

14.5

15.1

15.3

15.3

16.8

18.2

19.5

19.8

20.3

22.0

22.5

23.0

28.1

28.6

33.0

34.9

Table76.— Estimates of Death Rate for

Transportation Modes in the United States

Deaths per 100 million

Type of travel passenger miles”

Commercial aviation. . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1

Passenger train . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1

Rail rapid transit . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1

Bus . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2

Automobile. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.4

Motorcycle. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13.0

General aviation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13.0

TRAFFIC CRASH DATA

Traffic crash data are collected by the States traffic fatalities. For injuries and property

(through police accident reporting), insurance damage, national estimates are not based on accompanies, the U.S. Public Health Service, the tual totals but on reports from individual States.

U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT), and The National Accident Sampling System

various research organizations. The U, S. DOT (NASS), a program recently begun at DOT,

Fatal Accident Reporting System is currently should greatly improve the accuracy of injury

considered the most reliable source of data on and property damage data in the years ahead.
190 ● Changes in the Future Use and Characteristics of the Automobile Transportation System

The following sections summarize the data

available on traffic crashes, deaths, and injuries.

Crashes

The National Safety Council (NSC) estimated

that in 1976 there were 16,800,000 motor vehicle crashes involving 28,400,000 motor vehicles.

(OTA estimates for 1977, based on the 197 6

figures, are 17,600,000 crashes involving

29,800,000 vehicles. ) About 93 percent of those

crashes were relatively minor, involving property damage and nondisabling injury. z Table 77

shows a breakdown, by vehicle type, of vehicles

involved in these crashes. The data indicate that

one out of every five vehicles was involved in

some type of collision in 1976.

Deaths

Data from the DOT Fatal Accident Reporting

System are shown in table 78 for the years 1975

to 1977.

The majority (73 percent) of the 47,715 persons killed in traffic crashes in 1977 were vehicle

occupants—27,353 in automobiles and 5,222 in

pickups or vans. From 1975 to 1977, the largest

increases in fatalities were from crashes involving heavy trucks (33.1 percent), motorcycles (28

percent), and pickups/vans (20.5 percent).

There was a 4.1-percent increase in automobile

fatalities and a 7.2-percent increase in total

‘A disabling injury is one which causes permanent or temporary

disability for longer than 24 hours. All other injuries are classified

as nondisabling.

highway fatalities. Pedestrian and cyclist deaths

averaged over 8,000 annually for these 3 years.

Other statistics that indicate the nature and

distribution of fatal traffic crashes are:

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

Males constitute 54 percent of the drivers

but account for 70 percent of the driving,

over 70 percent of all fatalities, and 82 percent of all drivers involved in fatal crashes.

On Friday, Saturday, and Sunday between

the hours of 4 p.m. and 4 a.m., the frequency of fatal crashes is the highest. The period

from 4 a.m. to 8 a.m. accounts for the fewest fatalities throughout the week.

Over half of vehicle occupant fatalities are

the result of frontal impacts. (See figure

42. )

For single-vehicle crashes, collision with a

fixed object is most prevalent.

The ratio of fatalities to occupants in multivehicle crashes is 2 times higher in small

cars than in large cars. For single-vehicle

crashes, the ratio is the same for all vehicle

sizes.

Approximately 35 percent of the fatalities

occur in urban areas and 65 percent in rural

areas.

About 37 percent of urban fatalities are

pedestrians, compared to 8 percent in rural

areas.

Half of the pedestrian and bicycle deaths

are persons under 14 or over 65.

Table 77.—Crash Data by Vehicle Type, 1976

Vehicles

in al I crashes Percent of vehicle Percent of registered

Type of vehicle Number Percent registrations vehicles i n crashesa

Total . . . . . . . . . . 28,400,000 100.0 100.0 19.9

Automobile. . . . . . . . 23,280,000 81.9 77,1 21.2

Motorcycle’ . . . . . . . . 402,000 1.5 3.6 7.8

Buses . . . . . . . . . . . . . 235,000 0.8 0.3 55.0

Trucks. . . . . . . . . . . . . 4,100,000 14.5 19.0 15.2

Other d . . . . . . . . . . . . . 383,000 1.3 (e) (e)
Ch. 7—Safety Issues, Policies, and Findings ● 191

Table 78.—Fatal Crashes 1975-77 Number of Persons, Crashes, Vehicles, and Fatalities by Vehicle Type

Total . . . . . . . . . . .

Automobile .

Motorcycle. . . . . . .

Buses . . . . . . . . . . .

Pickup/van . . . . . . . . .

Heavy trucks . . . . . . .

Other trucks. . . . . . . .

Other. . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Pedestrian . . . . . . .

Pedal cyclist. . . . . . .

Other nonoccupant.

Total . . . . . . . . . .

Automobile . . . . . . . .

Motorcycle. . .

Buses . . . . . . . . . . . .

Pickup/van . . . . ...

Heavy trucks . . . . . .

Other trucks. ., .

Other. . . . . . . .

Pedestrian . .

Pedal cyclist ., . . . . . .

Other nonoccupant.

1975

05,149

69,292

4.040

1,043

13,211

3,545

2,018

2,447

8,253

1,058

242

1975

55,535-

38,330-

3,265

327

7,692

3,042

1,447

1,432

—

—

—

Persons Crashes

1976

105,870

68,442

4,168

1,126

14,372

4,162

1,716

2,504

8,135

979

266

1977

111,043

70,772

5,147

1,149

15,360

4,590

1,960

2,421

8,476

998

220

% Change

‘75-’77

5.6

2.1

27,4

10.2

16.3

29.5

(2.9)

(1 .1)

2.7

(5.7)

(9.1)

Vehicles

1976

56,084

37,795

3,343

319

8,370

3.566

1,273

1,418

—

—

—

1977

60,302

39,781

4,143

318

9,125

3,998

1,487

1,450

—

—

—

1975

39,160

30,122

3,148

323

7,335

2,858

1,406

1,357

7,420

993

155

% Change

‘75-’77

8.6

3.8

26.9

(2.8)

18.6

31.4

2.8

1.3

—

—

—

I

1976

39,747 

29,96 7

3,245

318

7,966

3,380

1,252

1,334

7,343

902

139

1977

42,064

’31 .285 –

4,011

318

8,658

3,774

1,460

1,362

7,592

916

135

% Change

‘75-’77

7.4 -

——.

3.9

27.4

(1 .5)

18,0

32.0

3.8

0.4

2.3

(7.8)

(1 2.9)

1975

44,524 —

26,268

3,189

53

4,332

717

428

937

7,516

1,003

81

Fatalities

1976

45,523 —

26,647

3,312

73

4,893

862

378

937

7,427

914

80

1977

47,715

27,353

4,083

41

5,222

954

444

926

7,705

916

71

% Change

‘75-’77

7.2—

4.1 -

28.0

(22,6)

20.5

33.1

3.7

(1 .2)

2.0

(8,7)

(1 2,3)

SOURCE Fatal Accident Reporting System data, U S Department of Transportation, National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. Office of Statistics and Analysis
192 ● Changes in the Future Use and Characteristics of the Automobile Transportation System

Figure 42.—Percent Distribution of Fatalities by

Principal Impact Point

5.6

2.3

10.0

0.6

0.6

46,1

.

Front

Rear

4.0

5.0

Top 6.9

Undercarriage 0.9

10,4

Unknown 3.1

0.7

0.4

SOURCE Derived from U S Department of Transportation, National

Highway Safety Administration, Fatal Accident Reporting

System 7976 Annual Report November 1977

Heavy trucks represent less than 1 percent

of the vehicle fleet, but they are involved in

9 percent of the fatal crashes.3

In collisions between cars and large trucks,

the occupants of the car are 14 times more

likely to be killed than the truck occupants.’

Injury

Motor vehicle injury data are not as reliable

as the information on fatalities. There are several sources of injury data, each using somewhat different classifications for injury. The National Safety Council defines an injury as that

which results in some degree of impairment or

renders a person unable to perform regular

duties or activities for a full day beyond the day

of the injury (a disabling injury). The National

Health Survey of the U.S. Public Health Service

classifies injuries in the following categories:

● Medically Attended. —A physician was

consulted (in person or by telephone) for

treatment or advice within 2 weeks of the

injury.

Activity Restriction.—Causes a person to

cut down on usual activities for 1 full day

(does not require complete inactivity).

Bed Disabling. —Confines a person to bed

for more than one-half of- the daylight

hours on the day of the injury or some

following day.

In 1971, the American Medical Association’s

Committee on Medical Aspects of Automotive

Safety published the Abbreviated Injury Scale

(AIS), which provides a detailed identification

of the severity of injuries. The general AIS classification is:

Code Category

o No Injury

1 Minor

2 Moderate

3 Severe (Not Life-Threatening)

4 Serious (Life-Threatening, Survival Probable)

5 Critical (Survival Uncertain)

6 Maximum (Currently Untreatable)

9 Unknown

A more detailed description of the Code 3 injuries is shown in table 79 for illustrative purposes.

The 1975 injury data from the U.S. Public

Health Service, the National Safety Council,

and the Department of Transportation are compared in table 80. The data indicate that in 1975

about 4,000,000 persons were injured in motor

vehicle crashes, and that as many as 150,000

were left with permanent physical impairment.

The U.S. Public Health Service estimated

there were 5,033,000 motor vehicle injuries in

1977, 4,392,000 of which were traffic-related.

(See table 81. ) The National Safety Council

estimates there were 1,900,000 traffic-related

disabling injuries in 1977.5

cost

A traffic crash results in loss both to the individuals involved and to society at large. Several efforts have been made to quantify these

monetary losses. No attempt has been made to

‘National Safety Council, Accident Facts, 1978 preliminary condensed edition, February 1978.
Ch. 7—Safety Issues, Policies, and Findings ● 193

Table

General external

Laceration lnvolving

major nerves and/or

vessels

2” or30 burns (21 % -

30% body surface)

79.—Abbreviated Injury Scale Severity Code 3: Severe (Not Life-Threatening)

Head & Neck

Cerebral concussion

with or without

skull fracture, unconsciousness more

than 15 minutes, no

other neurological

Chest & thoracic

spine

Thoracic cavity Injury

with unilateral

hemothorax or

pneumothorax.

Lung contusion.

Thoracic spine fracAbdomen & lumbar -

spine

Abdominal organ

contusion.

Extraperitoneal bladder rupture.

Diaphragm rupture,

Stomach, mesentary, or

Extremity and/or

pelvic girdle

Displaced, comrnlnuted

and/ or open fracture of long bone,

hand, or foot.

Displaced pelvic

fracture with or

signs. ture without neuro- urethra superficial without dislocaCerebral concussion logical Involvement laceration tion,

with displaced or (excluding minor Ureter avulsion. Major joint dislocadepressed skull compression frac- Lumbar spine fracture tion

fracture, uncon- ture). without neurological

sciousness less Multiple rib (2 or Involvement (ex.

than 15 minutes, no more) fracture with - cluding minor comother neurological out flaiI chest, press ion fracture).

signs.

Avulsion of eye or

optic nerve

Open and/or displaced

facial bone fracture

or fracture with

antral or orbital

Involvement.

Cervical spine fracture and/or dislocation (C-4 or below)

without cord damage

SOURCE American Associatlon of Automotive Mediclne The Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) 1976 revlslon
194 ● Changes in the Future Use and Characteristics of the Automobile Transportation System

Table 80.—Motor Vehicle Injuries, 1975

National Safety Council U.S. Public Health Service U.S. Department of Transportation

Category

Category Number Category Number (A IS Code) Number

Permanent 150,000 Without 1,448,000

disabling . . . . . . . . activity

restriction . . . . . . .

Temporary 1,650,000 With activity 1,364,000 1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,400,000

disabling . . . . . . . . restriction . . . . . . . 2 492,000

Bed disabling . . . . 1,647,000 3 : : : : : : : : : : : : : : 80,000

4 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20,000

5 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4,000

Total 1,800,000 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . 4,459,000 Total . . . . . . . . . . 3,996,000

disabling injuries injuries

injuries. . . . . . . . . .

Table 81 .—Injuries in the United States, 1977

Total injury . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73,927,000

Motor vehicle (moving) . . . . . . . . . . . 5,033,000

Traffic ., . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4,392,000

Work. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11,414,000

Home. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29,588,000

Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31,435,000

SOURCE U S Department of Health, Education, and Welfare, Public Health

Service, National Center for Health Statistics

quantify the human suffering, pain, loss of relationships, and other psychological factors associated with traffic crashes. The Department of

Transportation has estimated traffic crash losses

in terms of: 1) resources consumed in treating

personal injury and repairing vehicular damage

that otherwise could be shifted in the long run to

welfare-producing activities, and 2) losses in

production and the ability to produce.

Table 82 shows these costs and their estimated value (in 1977 dollars). Multiplying these

cost components by the number of injuries in

the AIS code levels shown in table 79 and the

1977 total deaths results in an estimated cost of

$43.9 billion, which includes the property damage associated with traffic crashes. (See table

82. )

The National Safety Council estimates of the

costs of traffic crashes for 1976 are shown in

table 83. There is considerable difference between the NSC and DOT estimates, both in the

cost categories included in the totals and in the

costs within similar categories.
Ch. 7—Safety Issues, Policies, and Findings ● 195

. . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . .

. .

. .

. .
196 ● Changes in the Future Use and Characteristics of the Automobile Transportation System

PRESENT POLICY

The earliest Federal Government response to

the highway safety problem was in 1924, when

Secretary of Commerce Herbert Hoover

brought together a group of experts at the First

National Conference on Street and Highway

Safety. The conference addressed such matters

as traffic control, construction and engineering,

education, and motor vehicle design. Five additional conferences were held in the years

through 1950, but no specific role for the

Federal Government evolved from these efforts.

In the years following 1950, however, a more

intense interest in highway safety was displayed

by Congress and the executive branch. In 1954,

President Eisenhower convened a White House

Conference on Highway Safety and created a

President’s Committee for Highway Safety. The

Federal Aid Highway Act of 1956 authorized the

Secretary of Commerce to investigate thoroughly the Federal role in highway safety. A

report of that investigation, submitted in 1959,

became the basis for significant change in the

Federal Government’s involvement in highway

safety.

Noting the increasing fatalities and injuries on

the Nation’s highways, President Johnson stated

in his March 2, 1966, transportation message to

Congress that:

Neither private industry nor government officials concerned with automotive transportation

have made safety first among their priorities.

Yet we know that expensive freeways, powerful

engines, and smooth exteriors will not stop the

massacre on our roads.6

The first major Federal effort in highway safety began with the passage of the National Traffic and Motor Vehicle Safety Act of 1966 (Public

Law 89-563) and the Highway Safety Act of

1966 (Public Law 89-564). This legislation

called for Federal involvement in three major

areas:

1. Federal safety standards for new vehicles,

2. Safety defect recall campaigns, and

“U.S. Congress, Senate, Highway Safety Act of 1966, Senate

3. State and local highway safety programs.

These laws directly affected the automobile

industry, State and local governments, and

highway users.

Motor Vehicle Safety Standards

The most important and controversial feature

of Federal involvement in highway safety is the

Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards

(FMVSS). Under this program (summarized in

table 84), new vehicles and vehicle components

must comply with certain performance requirements before they can be sold to the public.

These standards have been shown to have made

a contribution to the reduction in fatality and

injury rates on highways since 1966. A recent

General Accounting Office study estimated that

the standards might have saved as many as

28,000 lives between 1966 and 1974.7

In addition to about 50 Federal safety standards now in force for passenger cars, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration

(NHTSA) has indicated its intention to extend

certain standards to include light trucks and to

upgrade existing standards or issue new ones for

passenger cars. These proposed new and revised

standards are listed in table 85.

Safety Defect Recall Campaigns

NHTSA has an aggressive vehicle defect and

recall program. In the period 1966 to 1975, 52.4

million vehicles were recalled. This amounted to

43 percent of the vehicles produced during that

time. a

The effectiveness of this massive recall effort

in improving vehicle safety has not been determined. For example, it is unknown at this time

how many of the 52.4 million vehicles recalled

were actually brought in for repair or replacement of defective components.
Ch. 7—Safety Issues, Policies, and Findings ● 197

Table 84.—Chronology of Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards and Regulations

Date Issued

January 31, 1967 .

November 8, 1967 .

February 12, 1968.

April 24, 1968 .,

July 3,1968

August 13, 1968 ”

December 24, 1968 .

January 17, 196 9

March 23, 1970 ., .,

July 17.1970

October 22, 1970. ........

November 5, 1970. ,

December 31, 1970 .

February 10, 1971

February 19, 1971 

April 9, 1971.

April 14, 1971.

December 3, 1971 ’

March 1, 1972 .

March 31, 1972

April 4, 1972 .

May 3.1972

August 3, 197 2

January 17, 197 3

January 22, 197 3

January 31, 1973. .

July 26, 1973 . ,

August 9, 1973

November 5, 197 3

May 20, 197 5

June 9, 1975.

September, 197 5

January 19, 197 6

January 22, 1976 .

February 27, 197 6

—

Standard No 101–

Standard No, 102

Standard No. 103

Standard No 104

Standard No 105

Standard No. 106

Standard No 107

Standard No. 108

Standard No. 111

Standard No, 201

Standard No 203

Standard No, 204

Standard No. 205

Standard No 206

Standard No. 207

Standard No 208

Standard No 209

Standard No 210

Standard No 211

Standard No. 301

Standard No 109

Standard No. 110

Standard No 202

Standard No, 112

Standard No 113

Standard No. 114

Standard No. 115

Standard No. 212

Standard No. 116

Part No. 567

Part No. 569

Standard No, 213

Standard No. 118

Standard No 214

Part No 574

Standard No 302

Part 573

Standard No. 121

Standard No 215

Standard No. 117

Standard No. 216

Standard No 122

Standard No, 125

Standard No 124

Standard No, 123

Standard No 217

Standard No.126

Part No. 577

Part No 555

Part No. 580

Part No. 572

Standard No. 218

Standard No 119

Part No 575

Standard No 219

Part No 552

Part No 570

Standard No, 120

Standard 220

Standard No. 221

Standard No. 222

Part 581

Standard

Control Location. Identification, and Illumination

Transmission Shift Lever Sequence, Starter Interlock, Transmission

Braking Effect

Windshield Defrosting and Defogging

Windshield Wiping and Washing Systems

Hydraulic Brake Systems

Brake Hoses

Reflecting Surfaces (Chrome Trim)

Lamps, Reflective Devices, and Associated Equipment

Rearview Mirrors

Occupant Protection In Interior Impact

Impact Protection for the Driver from the Steering Control System

Steering Control Rearward Displacement

Glazing Materials (Automobile Windshield Glass)

Door Locks and Door Retention Components

Seating Systems

Occupant Crash Protection

Seat Belt Assembles

Seat Belt Assembly Anchorages

Wheel Nuts, Wheel DISCS, and Hub Caps

Fuel System Integrity

New Pneumatic Tires

Tire Select ton and Rims

l-lead Restraints

Headlamp Concealment Devices

Hood Latch Systems

Theft Protection

Vehicle Identification Numbers

Windshield Mounting

Motor Vehicle Brake Fluids

Certification Regulation

Regrooved Tires

Child Seating Systems

Power-Operated Window Systems

Side Door Strength

Tire Identification and Record keeping

Flammability of Interior Materials

Defect Reports

Air Brake Systems

Exterior Protect Ion (Bumpers)

Retreaded Pneumatic Tires

Roof Crush Resistance

Motorcycle Brake Systems

Warning Devices

Accelerator Control Systems

Motorcycle Controls and Displays

Bus Window Retention and Release

Truck-Camper Loading

Defect Notifications

Temporary Exemptions from Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards

Odometer Disclosure Requirements

Anthropomorphic Test Dummy

Motorcycle Helmets

New Pneumatic Tires

Consumer Information—Uniform Tire Quality Grading

Windshield Zone Intrusion

Petitions for rulemaking, Defect and Noncompliance Orders

Vehicles in Use Inspect Ion Standards

Tire Selection and Rims for Vehicles Other Than Passenger Cars

School Bus Rollover Protection

School Bus Body Joint Strength

School Bus Seating and Crash Protection

Bumper Standard (Incorporates Standard 215)

————.—

SOURCE U S Department of Transportation, National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, Traffic Safety '76
198 ● Changes in the Future Use and Characteristics of the Automobile Transportation System

Table 85.—Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards, Near-Term Improvements

Under Consideration for Passenger Vehicles

Inclusion of Upgrading of

Current standards light trucksa

standards

FMVSS No. 201 —Occupant Protection in Interior

Impact. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . x x

FMVSS No. 203—impact Protection for the

Driver from the Steering Control Systems . . . . . x x x

FMVSS No. 204—Steering Control Rearward

Displacement. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . x x x

FMVSS No. 208—Occupant Crash Protection. . . . xx X

b

FMVSS No. 213—Child Restraint Systems . . . . . . x

FMVSS No. 214—Side Door Strength . . . . . . . . . . . x x x

FMVSS No. 101 —Control Location, Identification,

and illumination. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . x x x

FMVSS No. 105—Hydraulic Service Brake,

Emergency Brake, and Parking Brake Systems. x x

c

FMVSS No. 108—Lamps, Reflective Devices, and

Associated Equipment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . x x ’ x

FMVSS No. 109— New Pneumatic Tires. . . . . . . . . (d) x

FMVSS No. 11 1—Rearview Mirrors. . . . . . . . . . . . . x x

FMVSS No. 114—Theft Protection . . . . . . . . . . . . . x x x

FMVSS No. 115—Vehicle Identification. . . . . . . . . x

New Proposed Standards’

Exterior Protrusions (minimize)

Truck Rear Underride Guard (heavy trucks)

Low Tire Pressure Warning

Direct Fields of View

Handling and Stability Performance

Requirements

Brake System Inspectability

Speedometers/Odometers (limit speed indication)

Federal

State and Local Highway

Safety Programs

Federal involvement in highway safety at

State and local levels before 1966 was limited.

States were permitted to spend some FederalAid Highway funds for safety projects related to

highway and traffic engineering, but not for

driver safety programs or other safety features

of the system.

The Highway Safety Act of 1966 mandated

that the Secretary of Transportation issue safety

standards to be implemented by the States. The

law also provided for Federal matching grants

to assist States in implementing the standards

and provided for withholding of Federal-Aid

Highway funds (up to 10 percent) if a State

failed to comply with a standard.

The Department of Transportation issued 18

standards under this act. (See table 86. ) Compliance by the States has varied; in some cases,

noncompliance has persisted for long periods.

When DOT decided to impose sanctions, Congress, in the Highway Safety Act of 1976, placed

a moratorium on sanctions and directed the Secretary to study the “adequacy and appropriateness of the standards” and report the findings by

July 1, 1977.

The DOT report prepared pursuant to this

direction by Congress stated that “Federal

standards are generally adequate, in that they

incorporate countermeasures which are believed
to ultimately reduce accidents. ”9 DOT recommended “that mandatory compliance with each

of the present 18 standards no longer be required. ” In certain critical areas, however, DOT

stated that national conformity should still be

required and that the pertinent standards should

be maintained.

Ch. 7—Safety Issues, Policies, and Findings ● 199

Legislation to this effect was proposed by the

Carter Administration, but was rejected by

Congress. However, the Highway Safety Act of

1978 does grant limited waivers regarding the 18

standards for States with approved alternate

highway safety programs.

Table 86.— Federal Highway Safety Program Standards

Standard No. l—Periodic Motor Vehicle lnspection (NHTSA): To increase the likelihood that every

vehicle operated on the public highways is properly

equipped and is being maintained in safe operating

order.

Standard No. 2—Motor Vehicle Registration

(NHTSA): To provide a means of identifying the

owner and the type, weight, size, and carrying capacity of all vehicles Iicensed to operate i n the State.

Standard No. 3—Motorcycle Safety (NHTSA): To

ensure that motorcycles, motorcyclists, and their

passengers meet standards that contribute to safe

operation and protection from injuries.

Standard No. 4—Driver Education (NHTSA): To ensure that every eligible high school student has the

opportunity to enroll in a course of instruction designed to train him to drive skillfully and as safely as

possible, under all traffic and roadway conditions.

Standard No. 5—Driver Licensing (NHTSA): To improve the quality of driving by requiring more effective and uniform Iicensing procedures.

Standard No. 6—Codes and Laws (NHTSA): To

eliminate all major variations in traffic codes, laws,

and ordinances on given aspects of highway safety,

among political subdivisions in a State, and to further the adoption of appropriate sections of the Uniform Vehicle Code.

Standard No. 7— Traffic Courts (NHTSA): To provide prompt, impartial adjudication of proceedings

involving motor vehicle and traffic laws.

Standard No. 8—Alcohol in Relation to Highway

Safety (NHTSA): To broaden the scope and number

of activities directed toward reducing traffic accidents arising in whole or in part from persons driving under the influence of alcohol.

Standard No. 9—identification and Surveillance of

Accident Locations (FHWA): To identify specific

highway locations which have high or potentially

high accident experience, as a basis for establishing

priorities for improvements to eliminate or reduce

the hazards.

Standard No. 10—Traffic Records (NHTSA): To improve the quality of traffic records systems, to include and have readily available all data necessary to

the operating agencies responsible for highway

safety.

Standard No. 1 l—Emergency Medical Services

(NHTSA): To provide an emergency care system for

quick identification and response to accident injuries, to sustain life through first aid, and to coordinate the transportation and communications

necessary to bring together the injured and definitive medical care i n the shortest possible time.

Standard No. 12—Highway Design, Construction,

and Maintenance (FHWA): To maintain existing

streets in a condition to promote safety, to modernize or build new roads to meet safety standards,

and to protect motorists from accidents at construction sites.

Standard No. 13—Traffic Engineering Services

(formerly Traffic Control Devices) (FHWA): To assure

application of modern traffic engineering principles

and uniform standards for traffic control.

Standard No. 14—Pedestrian Safety (NHTSA and

FHWA); To emphasize the recognition of pedestrian

and pedal cyclist safety as an integral, constant, and

important element in community planning, and to

ensure continuing programs to improve such safety.

Standard No. 15—Police Traffic Services (NHTSA):

To improve police traffic services in all aspects of

accident prevention. and to bring errant drivers to

justice.

Standard No. 16—Debris Hazard Control and

C/can-up (NHTSA): To provide for the planning, training, coordination, and communication needed to

assure prompt correction of conditions that constitute potential traffic dangers.

Standard No. 17—Pupil Transportation Safety

(NHTSA): To reduce the danger of death or injury to

school children being transported to and from

school, by setting requirements for safe equipment

and its maintenance, and for training and supervision of drivers and maintenance personnel.

Standard No. 18—Accident Investigation and

Reporting (NHTSA): To establish a uniform, comprehensible, accident investigation program to

gather information on traffic accidents and enter it

into the traffic records system for use in furthering

highway safety.

SOURCE U S Department of Transportation National Highway Traffic Safety Adminitration, Traffic Safety 76
200 • Changes in the Future Use and Characteristics of the Automobile Transportation System

Other Related Policies

Under the Motor Vehicle Information and

Cost Savings Act of 1972 (Public Law 92-513),

NHTSA was directed to determine crash susceptibility, crashworthiness, associated insurance

costs, and ease of diagnosis and repair of mechanical and electrical problems for automobiles. The information must be made known to

the public for each make and model of car. Also

included under this legislation is the “bumper

standard” (Part 581 of the Act). The “nodamage” requirement is intended primarily to

save consumers monetary loss associated with

low-speed collisions, but there may also be

marginal safety benefits that accrue. Except for

Part 581, the provisions of this Act have not yet

been implemented by NHTSA.

There are also safety benefits associated with

other policies not specifically directed at safety.

Prominent among these are:

New highway construction and reconstruction under the Federal-Aid Highway Act

and the growing use of the Interstate System during the past 10 years. These roads

are built to very high safety standards and

have fatality rates significantly lower than

local roads built to lower standards.

The 55 mph national speed limit, originally

enacted as an energy conservation measure, appears to have brought safety benefits as well. Retention

the 55 mph speed limi

many experts on both

conservation grounds.

and enforcement of

is now justified by

safety and energy

PROJECTIONS

While the rate of fatal crashes per vehicle mile

has steadily decreased over the past 50 years,

the number of crashes—and the resulting death

and injury—has been growing just as steadily,

largely because there have been more drivers,

more vehicles, and more miles traveled. Projections of highway fatalities and injuries to 2000

are influenced by several factors that may increase the severity and magnitude of the future

traffic safety problem:

●

●

●

●

VMT are expected to keep rising, as will the

number of vehicles and drivers.

The average size and weight of the automobile fleet are expected to decline.

The percentage of trucks in the fleet and

truck VMT are expected to increase.

Highways are deteriorating at a rate faster

than they are being maintained. Unless

maintenance is emphasized, the condition

of roads could contribute to an increase in

crashes.

Other factors are expected to have a countervailing effect:

●

●

●

The use of passive restraints will reduce

vehicle occupant deaths and injuries.

Changes in the age distribution of drivers—

fewer younger drivers and more female

drivers—may tend to lower the fatal crash

rate. On the other hand, more drivers over

the age of 65 may adversely affect the fatal

crash rate.

The proportion of vehicles equipped to

meet present safety standards will increase.

Estimates based on these factors indicate that

crashes, injuries, and fatalities will increase in

the years to come. By 2000, it is projected that

there will be approximately 64,000 deaths and

over 5 million injuries annually. The total traffic

deaths from 1977 to 2000 will exceed 1 million

and injuries could reach as high as 130 million.

(See figure 43. )
Ch. 7—Safety Issues, Policies, and Findings ● 201

70,000

60,000

50,000

20,000

10,000

Figure 43. —Motor Vehicle Deaths, 1955 to 2000

L

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

SOURCE OTA propctlon using Base Case VMT adjusted for total vehicle travel

ISSUES AND POLICIES

In the last century technology has changed

radically the way people live and the way they

die. Infectious disease as a cause of death has

virtually been eliminated. A child born in the

United States today can look forward to a life

untroubled by common diseases such as smallpox, scarlet fever, diphtheria, tuberculosis,

typhoid fever, and polio, which were major

causes of death a few generations ago.11 Today,

however, that same child is confronted with the

prospect that from age 1 to 39, he or she is more

likely to die in a motor vehicle crash than in any

other manner.

Traffic safety is a modern sociotechnical

problem, created by the interaction of humans,

highways, and motor vehicles. Improvements in

traffic safety will depend on adjustments or

changes in the vehicles, in highways, and in the

way people use them. The issues and policies

considered in this study revolve around these

changes.

11-07 ~ f ) - 7 I - 11

Issues

In the course of this assessment, eight safety

issues were identified and examined. These

issues address the level of Federal involvement

in safety, the priorities and allocation of safety

activities, the application of safety technology,

the methodologies used to select and evaluate

safety strategies, and the distribution of safety

costs. The issues are presented in table 87.13

They have been developed to guide the formulation and evaluation of policy alternatives, and

the identification of potential policy impacts.

The issues that address the role of the Federal

Government in traffic safety, the level of involvement, and the questions of establishing

priorities for safety strategies have been the subject of intense debate over the years, and this

debate is unlikely to subside. Many considerations bear on these issues:

• the severity of the problem,

‘‘A discussion of the Issues IS contained in a working paper

prepared by the OTA staff, ISSIJLTS ltl~’(~lz?cd IN t)lc StI/dv of the,

P(2tc}7tI[71 Ch[mWj 1)1 tlILT C“II[zr(IL-fcrI sfI[-s L~H(/ USC of f17c AI/tcIt)I()-

IIIIP TrLIt7S/JtI)tLIfI(IFJ 5YstLJt?I OTA, Oct. 21, I977.
202 ● Changes in the Future Use and Characteristics of the Automobile Transportation System

Table 87. Safety Issues

Goals. —By what process should the Federal Government set safety goals for the automobile transportation system, and in what forms should these

goals be expressed—quantitative, qualitative?

Involvement.—To what extent and how does the

achievement of safety goals require Federal Government involvement with the automobile transportation industry, State, and local governments? Private

institutions and the general public/individuals? What

should be the roles of each of these groups?

Methodologies. —To what extent should the Federal Government use benefit-cost, cost effectiveness, or other methodologies to assess automobile

safety strategies and improvements?

Requirements. —Should the Federal Government

set minimum safety requirements for each class of

vehicle, highway, and user? If so, how should those

requirements and associated risk management activities be set pertaining to safety at entry, in operation, and at reentry?

Priorities and Allocation.—How should the Federal Government set priorities for achieving safety

goals among strategies dealing with vehicles, highways, and system users?

Technology .—What should the Federal Government do to decrease the time to attain general usage

of proven safety advances?

Involvement. —Should the Federal Government

impose upon the automobile transportation system

safety measures beyond those which individuals,

governments, and industry perceive as necessary to

control risk? What steps should the Federal Government take to improve the understanding of individuals, governments, and industry of the nature of risk

and benefits of managing risks?

Costs.— How should the Federal Government determine how the cost of safety is allocated? Who

shouId pay? How much? When? By what means?

●

●

●

●

●

the responsibility of the Federal Government in matters affecting the public health,

the resources available,

questions of individual freedom and

choice,

public and private sector interests, and

public attitudes and opinions.

There is general agreement that the traffic

safety problem is severe and worthy of serious

attention, but there is debate over what to do

about the problem, No single stakeholder group

in the automobile transportation system is

wholly responsible for traffic crashes, and no

single stakeholder could effectively or completely solve the safety problem. Likewise, there is

no unanimous “public opinion” on the technical

and political feasibility of solutions.

Although there is no one solution and no

single party responsible for action, there are

many technical features of the automobile transportation system and many behavioral aspects

of highway users which, if altered, could make

partial contributions to a reduction in highway

losses. The marketplace has not provided sufficient incentive to bring about these changes.

Thus, Federal initiative and Federal involvement appear to be appropriate.

For many years highway crashes were generally considered “accidents” caused by individuals, and hence an individual problem. Although this view is still held by some, there is

growing awareness that traffic crashes, and the

resulting death and injury, are a community

problem not borne solely by the individuals involved. This view leads to a broad, and more

objective framework for assessing traffic safety

problems, developing countermeasures, and establishing priorities among them.

There is little debate over the cause of

crashes. The majority of traffic crashes are

caused by the vehicle drivers, although roadway and vehicle features may contribute to the

cause of about one-third of all crashes. (See

table 88. ) The issue of establishing priorities

centers on whether safety strategies should

focus on crash prevention or crash severity

reduction. Crash prevention strategies apply

countermeasures to eliminate the cause of

crashes, thus their occurrence. Crash severity

reduction strategies seek to prevent or minimize

injury when a crash occurs.

Table 88.—Traffic Crash Causation

Estimated percentage

Element of crash causation

Vehicle. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4-12

Highway . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10-30

Driver. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 70-90

Violation . . . . . . . . . . . 20-30

Decision . . . . . . . . . . . 20-30

Attention. . . . . . . . . . . 40-60

SOURCE U S Department of Transportation, National Highway Traffic Safety
It is difficult to find effective countermeasures

for the driver-related crash causation categories

shown in table 88. The effectiveness of traffic

laws in preventing improper driver behavior appears to be limited, and the magnitude and extent of law enforcement is subject to public approval. Various forms of driver education and

training might reduce the rate of decision errors,

but the degree of improvement attainable by

such measures has not been demonstrated.

The largest factor of crash causation, driver

inattention, also does not lend itself to practical

countermeasures. Driving, especially in the

United States, is a relatively simple, repetitive

task requiring a low level of conscious decisionmaking. Highways and vehicles have been designed to make the driving task easier and more

comfortable. It is likely that human error will

continue to be a major cause of traffic crashes,

unless ways are found to augment the performance of the driver with automatic control systems.

The vehicle factors that are the primary

causes of crashes are defects in brakes, wheels,

and tires. The leading highway features that

Ch. 7—Safety Issues, Policies, and findings ● 203

cause or contribute to crashes are obstructed

view and slick roads.

The mechanisms that cause injury and death,

and the types of bodily damage incurred in

crashes, are well known. The chief mechanism

is abrupt decelerative dissipation of kinetic

energy in crashes. Vehicle occupants sustain injury when striking the interior of the vehicle

during a crash, Passengers ejected from vehicles

in collisions suffer injury from impact with the

vehicle and the ground, highway, or other structures. Pedestrians and cyclists are injured by

striking, or being struck by, the vehicle and by

the subsequent impact with the roadway or

ground. The method to reduce injury is to

spread the impact forces over a greater surface

area and a longer time, thus reducing the severity of the contact.l4~ Crash severity reduction

strategies can be effective, and reasonably

amenable to evaluation. Highway design features, if properly maintained, would remain

throughout the life of the highway. Safety

design criteria for motor vehicles, once established, would also be long-lasting.
204 . Changes in the Future Use and Characteristics of the Automobile Transportation System

In summary, for long-range determination of

safety priorities, an analytical framework that

embraces all loss-reduction strategies is appropriate. Each safety strategy must be evaluated for its potential effects, impacts, and

feasibility of implementation. Thus, a comprehensive analysis of strategies is required to

determine priorities among them.

Policy Framework

Figure 44 shows a policy framework based on

a functional subdivision of the automobile

transportation system. This framework helps

identify policies and related issues applicable to

safety countermeasures. The framework specifies a programmatic approach to each component of the system. Issues are related to programs in hierarchical levels. An abbreviated

listing of policy areas is shown under the boxes

representing system elements in figure 44. A

policy analysis flow diagram is depicted in

figure 45.

Highway Design

Highway design and condition can contribute

to both the frequency and severity of traffic

crashes. The National Highway Safety Needs

Report 15 (hereafter referred to as the “Needs”

report), identified 37 safety countermeasures,

including 19 related to highway design features.

Tables 89, 90, and 91 list these countermeasures, and rank them by cost-effectiveness, cost

to implement, and potential to forestall death

and injury. Table 92 shows the 19 highway

design-related countermeasures.

The “Needs” report estimated that these 19

highway improvements could save about 34,000

lives and a million injury-producing accidents

over a 10-year period. The actual benefits of

these countermeasures could be even greater

because most would be maintained well over 10

years and would continue to accrue the benefits

of reduced death and injury.

Photo Credii U S Department of 7ransportation
Figure 44.—issues, Policies, and Strategies for Traffic Safety

1. Involvement ~

Safety of the

I

I I I r

I

t

Highways User Support

vehicies performance systems

I I I

I

I

I I standards I

I

I

I J

I I I “

Roadway Roadside Information

Vehicle

!dentif!catlon

& security

-maintenance

-maintenance -hazard

treatment

r

,

1

Maintenance

—voluntatr

criteria

-diagnosis

-registration

—vehicle ID

-theft

protection

visibility

-braking -component: -safety

-tires management shape & components

materials

—areas: components

or areas

materials

control

-fuel system

I

Retrofit

-recall

—after market

I

I

I

-program

coordination

& evaluation

maintenance -traffic laws

servicing

treatment

renewal

--crash-revoked

drivers

a staff

education

speed information

maneuvers measures

-repast

offenders

●

0
206 . Changes in the Future Use and Characteristics of the Automobile Transportation System

1. , ‘

‘. . , - . . . .
Ch. 7—Safety Issues, Policies, and Findings ●

Table 89.—Ranking of Countermeasures by Decreasing Cost-Effectiveness in Present Value Dollars

Per Total Fatalities Forestalled— 10-Year Total

2 0 7

Dollars per

Fatal i ties cost fatality

forestalled ($ millions) forestalled

Countermeasure (A) (B) (c)

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

6.

7.

8

9

10

11

12

13

14.

15.

16.

17.

18.

19.

20.

21.

22.

23.

24.

25.

26.

27.

28.

29.

30.

31.

32.

33.

34.

35.

36.

37.

Mandatory safety belt usage . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Highway construction and maintenance practices . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Upgrade bicycle and pedestrian safety curriculum offerings . . . . .

Nationwide 55 mph speed limit. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Driver improvement schools . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Regulatory and warning signs. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Guardrail . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Pedestrian safety information and education . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Skid resistance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Bridge rails and parapets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Wrong-way entry avoidance techniques . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Driver improvement schools for young offenders . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Motorcycle rider safety helmets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Motorcycle lights-on practice. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Impact-absorbing roadside safety devices . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Breakaway sign and lighting supports . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Selective traffic enforcement . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Combined alcohol safety action countermeasures . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Citizen assistance of crash victims . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Median barriers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Pedestrian and bicycle visibility enhancement. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Tire and braking system safety critical inspection—selective . . . .

Warning letters to problem drivers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Clear roadside recovery area . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Upgrade education and training for beginning drivers . . . . . . . . . . .

Intersection sight distance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Combined emergency medical countermeasures . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Upgrade traffic signals and systems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Roadway lighting . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Traffic channelization. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Periodic motor vehicle inspection—current practice. . . . . . . . . . . .

Pavement markings and delineators. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Selective access control for safety . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Bridge widening . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Railroad-highway grade-crossing protection

(automatic gates(excluded) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Paved or stabilized shoulders . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Roadway alinement and gradient . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

89,000

459

649

31,900

2,470

3,670

3,160

490

3,740

1,520

779

692

1,150

65

6,780

3,250

7,560

13,000

3,750

529

1,440

4,591

192

533

3,050

468

8,000

3,400

759

645

1,840

237

1,300

1,330

276

928

590

$ 45.0

9.2

13.2

676.0

53.0

125.0

108.0

18.0

158.0

69.8

38.5

36.3

61.2

5.2

735.0

379.0

1,010.0

2,130.0

784.0

121.0

332.0

1,150.0

50.5

151.0

1,170.0

196.0

4,300.0

2,080.0

710.0

1,080.0

3,890.0

639.0

3,780.0

4,600.0

974.0

5,380.0

4,530.0

$ 506

20,000

20,400

21,200

21,400

34,000

34,100

36,800

42,200

46,000

49,400

52,500

53,300

80,600

108,000

116,000

133,000

164,000

209,000

228,000

230,000

251,000

263,000

284,000

385,000

420,000

538,000

610,000

936,000

1,680,000

2,120,000

2,700,000

2,910,000

3,460,000

3,530,000

5,800,000

7,680,000

SOURCE US Department of Transportation Office of the Secretary, National Highway Safety Needs Report, April 1976
208 ● Changes in the Future Use and Characteristics of the Automobile Transportation System

Table 90.—Ranking of Countermeasures by Increasing

Costs of Implementation in Present Value Dollars—10-Year Total

Countermeasure

cost

($ million)

1. Motorcycle lights-on practice . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

2. Highway construction and maintenance practices, . . . . . . .

3. Upgrade bicycle and pedestrian safety

curriculum offerings. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

4. Pedestrian safety information and education . . . . . . . . . . .

5. Driver improvement schools for young offenders . . . . . . . . .

6. Wrong-way entry avoidance techniques. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

7. Mandatory safety belt usage . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

8. Warning letters to problem drivers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

9. Driver improvement schools . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

10. Motorcycle rider safety helmets . . . . . . . . . . ... . . . . .

11. Bridge rails and parapets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ... .

12. Guardrail . . ... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . , . . . . . . . .

13, Median barriers . . . . . . . . . , . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

14. Regulatory and warning signs ... ... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

15. Clear roadside recovery area , ., ... ... . . . . . ... , . . . .

16. Skid resistance . . . . . . . . . ... ... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

17. Intersection sight distance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

18. Pedestrian and bicycle visibility enhancement . . . . . . . .

19. Breakaway sign and lighting supports . . . . . . . . . ... . . . .

20. Pavement markings and delineators. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

21. Nationwide 55 mph speed limit . . . . . . . . . . . ... . . . .

22, Roadway Iighting. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

23. Impact-absorbing roadside safety devices. . . . . . . . . . . . . .

24. Citizen assistance of crash victims. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

25, Railroad-highway grade-crossing protection

(automatic gates excluded) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

26. Selective traffic enforcement . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

27, Traffic channelization. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

28. Tire and braking system safety critical inspection—

selective. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

29. Upgrade education and training for

beginning drivers. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

30. Upgrade traffic signals and systems. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

31. Combined alcohol safety action countermeasures. . . . . . . .

32. Selective access control for safety . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

33. Periodic motor vehicle inspection—current practice. . . . .

34. Combined emergency medical countermeasures ... . . . .

35. Roadway alinement and gradient . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

36. Bridge widening . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

37. Paved or stabilized shoulders . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

$ 5.2

9.2

13.2

18.0

36.0

38.5

45.0

50.5

53.0

61.2

69.8

108.0

121.0

125.0

151.0

158.0

196.0

332.0

379.0

639.0

676.0

710.0

735.0

784.0

974.0

1,010.0

1,080.0

1,150.0

1,170.0

2,080.0

2,130.0

3,780.0

3,890.0

4,300.0

4,530.0

4,600.0

5,380.0

$41,600.0
Ch. 7—Safety Issuesj Policies, and Findings . 209

Table 91 .—Ranking of Countermeasures by Decreasing Potential

To Forestall Fatalities and Injury Accidents— 10-Year Total

Fatalities Injury accidents

forestal led forestalled

Countermeasure (A) (B)

1. Mandatory safety belt usage . . . -- --- - --- ---

2. Nationwide 55 mph speed limit .

3. Combined alcohol safety action

countermeasures . . . . . . . . . . . .

4. Combined emergency medical

countermeasures . . . . . . . . . . .

5. Selective traffic enforcement . .

6. Impact-absorbing roadside

7.

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21.

22.

23. Wrong-way entry avoidance

techniques , . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

24. Roadway lighting. . . . . . . . . . . . .

25. Driver improvement schools for

young offenders . . . . . . . . . . . . .

26. Upgrade bicycle and pedestrian

safety curriculum offerings . . . .

27. Traffic channelization . . . . . . . . .

28. Roadway alinement and

gradient . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

29. Clear roadside recovery area . . .

30. Median barriers . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

31. Pedestrian safety information

and education . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

32. Intersection sight distance . . . .

33. Highway construction and

maintenance practices. . . . . . . .

34. Railroad-highway grade-crossprotection (automatic gates

excluded) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

35. Pavement markings and

delineators. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

36. Warning letters to problem

drivers. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

37. Motorcycle lights-on practice . .

safety devices . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Tire and braking system safety

critical inspection—selective . .

Citizen assistance of crash

victims . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Skid resistance . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

ReguIatory and warning signs . .

Upgrade traffic signals and

systems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Breakaway sign and lighting

supports. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Guardrail. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Upgrade education and training

for beginning drivers. . . . . . . . . .

Driver improvement schools . . .

Periodic motor vehicle inspection—current practice . . . . . . . .

Bridge rails and parapets . . . . . .

Pedestrian and bicycle visibiIity

enhancement. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Bridge widening. . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Selective access control for

safety . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Motorcycle rider safety helmets

Paved or stabilized shoulders . .

89,000

31,900

13,000

8,000

7,560

6,780

4,590

3,750

3,740

3,670

3,400

3,250

3,160

3,050

2,470

1,840

1,520

1,440

1,330

1,300

1,150

928

779

759

692

649

645

590

533

529

490

468

459

276

237

192

65

3,220,000

415,000

153,000

146,000

296,000

158,000

80,000

95,000

43,000

33,000

27,000

52,800

31,000

13,000

71,900

15,300

24,200

51,000

50,300

14,400

35,800

3,290

29,600

27,000

11,200

31,500

23,000

20,700

2,740

19,200

18,300

18,000

1,080

9,210

3,760

1,680
210 . Changes in the Future Use and Characteristics of the Automobile Transportation System

Table 92.—Countermeasures Related to Highway Design—10 Year Total

(dollars in millions of 1977 constant dollars)

Estimated Estimated Estimated Estimated

deaths injuries societal costs cost of

forestalled, forestalled, forestalled, countermeasure

cumulative cumulative cumulative cumulative

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

6.

7.

8.

9.

10.

11.

12.

13.

14.

15.

16.

17.

18.

19.

Regulatory and warning signs . . . . . . . . .

Guardrail. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Skid resistance. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Bridge rails and parapets . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Wrong-way entry avoidance techniques.

Impact-absorbing roadside safety

devices . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Breakaway sign and lighting supports . .

Median barriers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Clear roadside recovery area . . . . . . . . . .

Intersection sight distance. . . . . . . . . . . .

Upgrade traffic signals and systems. . . .

Roadway lighting. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Traffic channelization . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Pavement marking and delineators . . . . .

Selective access control for safety . . . . .

Railroad-highway grade-crossing

protection. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Bridge widening. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Shoulders . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Roadway alinement and gradient. . . . . . .

3,670

6,830

10,570

12,090

12,869

19,649

22,899

23,428

23,961

24,429

27,829

28,588

29,233

29,470

30,770

31,046

32,376

33,304

33,894

371,800

509,100

1,016,100

1,055,900

1,064,500

1,457,300

1,805,500

1,876,700

1,930,500

1,978,100

2,323,900

2,400,900

2,482,800

2,506,700

2,637,500

2,640,300

2,772,900

2,866,000

2,925,800

$ 2,633

4,204

7,375

8,031

8,322

12,135

14,470

14,917

15,299

15,636

18,081

18,626

19,152

19,322

20,251

20,353

21,299

21,961

22,384

$ 250

466

782

922

999

2,469

3,227

3,469

3,771

4,163

8,323

9,743

11,903

13,181

20,741

22,689

31,889

42,649

51,709

SOURCE OTA, using U S Department of Transportation, Off Ice of the Secretary, National Highway Safety Needs Report, April 1976.

There would be a sizable savings associated costs forestalled would be $11.1 billion. The

with forestalled death and injury. For the 10- total societal costs forestalled would be $22.3

year period, using the cost data in table 82, the billion in 1977 constant dollars and 1977 costs.

social costs forestalled would be $ll.2 billion (See table 92.)

for 34,000 deaths. Assuming 2.6 injuries per

injury-producing crash that is forestalled and an The total cost of implementing these 19

average injury cost of $3,809, the total injury highway design features is estimated in the

Photo Credit Department Of Transportation
Ch. 7—Safety Issues, Policies, and Findings ● 211

“Needs” report to be $26 billion over 10 years in

present value dollars (from 1974 estimates).

This cost estimate converted to 1977 constant

dollars is $49 billion over 10 years. If this cost

were spent evenly over a 10-year period, there

would be approximately 15-percent additional

burden on the highway-financing structure

(about 4 mills, or four-tenths of a cent, for every

100 vehicle miles traveled). The principal

beneficiaries of this transfer of funds would be

the State and local highway departments and

the highway design and construction industry,

which would receive increased employment and

revenues.

Cost-benefit comparison is hampered by inadequacy of data and by uncertainty about their

interpretation. For example, the cost of an injury forestalled may not equal the average cost

of an injury, but instead might be the net cost of

replacing a severe injury with a minor injury

plus the cost of a minor injury forestalled,

However, the available data can be organized to

show how the cost-benefit analysis might apply

to program development. Table 92 contains the

19 highway design features ranked in order of

decreasing cost-effectiveness. The cumulative

expenditures are tabulated, along with the

cumulative societal costs forestalled. A hypothetical, economic-oriented, cost-benefit ratio of

1:1 occurs at about item 15 on the Iist of 19

items.

The energy impacts of these highway improvements would be primarily in the use of additional construction energy. Mobility would be

enhanced by safer highways, but highway

capacity, speed, etc., would not change much as

a result of these features. Environmental impacts would result from the use of wider rightsof-way, and the clearance of trees, rock outcropping, etc. Landowners of adjacent properties also would be impacted in some cases.

Roadside right-of-way regulations now permit

the installation of utility poles, which would

have to be moved. Alternatively, the utility

lines could be put underground.

Vehicle Design Features

The current Federal Motor Vehicle Safety

Standards and proposed additions or amendments were presented earlier, in tables 84 and

85. There is some evidence that these safety

standards are saving lives and reducing injuries

and that benefits exceed costs. Ib The passive

restraint standard, effective for all cars by the

1984 model year, has also been shown to be

cost-effective. 17 When the fleet is fully equipped

with passive restraints in the 1990’s, D O T

estimates that about 9,OOO lives will be saved

annually in addition to the estimated 3,oOO lives

saved annually through the use of seat belts.

(See table 93. ) Further evaluation of other Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards is in progress, and some modifications are expected by

the early 1980’s, in accordance with a 5-year

plan recently released by DOT. (See table 85. )

The long-range objective in vehicle safety is

to have on the market an affordable automobile

that offers high levels of safety, damage resistance in low-speed collisions, and protective

features to mitigate pedestrian and cyclist injury. The Research Safety Vehicle (RSV) program of DOT is demonstrating that such a goal

is achievable within the state of current technology ,18 Figure 46 shows two versions of vehicles

designed under this program.

Table 94 shows requirements for three levels

of crashworthiness. Research Safety Vehicles,

such as those illustrated in figure 46, are exceeding Level II and approaching Level III crashworthiness specifications. The results of the

RSV program to date indicate that a four- or

five-passenger vehicle, approaching Level 111 requirements and meeting fuel-economy and

emission standards, can be manufactured for

about $800 more than a similar vehicle meeting

today’s safety standards. ” Further work in the

program is aimed at reducing that cost to,

perhaps, as low as $4oo.

Accurately determining the necessary level of

vehicle crashworthiness, occupant protection,

and crash avoidance features for the vehicle

Research Safety Vehicle Program

poration, Report Nos. 802250, 8022.51, 802252, February 1977.
212 ● Changes in the Future Use and Characteristics of the Automobile Transportation System

Table 93

Part A.—Occupant Crash Protection System Effectiveness Estimates’

Lap and Passive belt

shoulder Air cushion and knee

A IS injury level Lap belt belt Air cushion and lap belt bolster Knee bolster

1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.15 0.30 0 0.15 0.20 0.06

2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .22 .57 .22 .33 .40 .10

3 .30 .59 .30 .45 .45 .15

4-6 : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : .40 .60 .40 .66 .50 .15

Part B.— Effectiveness of Occupant Crash Protection Systemsb

Fatalities

prevented per

year

Lap and shoulder (15 percent) and lap (5 percent) belts (nominal projection). . .

Lap and shoulder (35 percent) and lap (5 percent) belts (optimistic projection).

Lap and shoulder belt (70 percent usage). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Lap and shoulder belt (100 percent usage). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Lap belt (100 percent usage). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Driver-on I y air cushion:c

Nominal projection . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Optimistic projection . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Full-front air cushion:

Nominal projectional . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Optimistic projection. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Passive belts:

Nominal projection. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Optimistic projecting . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

3,000

6,300

11,500

16,300

10,900

9,600

11,500

12,100

13,500

9,800

10,700

Injuries

prevented per

year (A IS 2-5)

39,000

86,000

162,000

231,000

96,000

86,000

107,000

104,000

115,000

117,000

129,000

30, 1977

Achieving high levels of vehicle occupant

protection could reduce the deaths and injuries

of vehicle occupants beyond the projections of

the lifesaving potential of passive restraints. It

has been estimated that the addition of Level II

crashworthiness would increase the effectiveness of the Air Cushion Restraint System by 30

to 40 percent. (See table 95. ) The ability to’mitigate pedestrian and pedacycle death and injury

through front-end design modifications still requires technical examination.

The impacts of the evolution of much safer

cars would be reflected primarily in the price of

new cars to the consumer. Over the last decade,

vehicle safety improvements have added an

estimated $250 to the retail price of a 1978
Ch. 7—Safety Issues, Policies, and Findings ● 213
214 ● Changes in the Future Use and Characteristics of the Automobile Transportation System

Table 94.—Vehicle Crashworthiness and Damageability Levelsa

Crashworthiness Crash avoidance Damageability

Level 1. . . . . . . . . . .

Level II . . . . . . . . . .

All FMVSSsb pertaining to

crashworthiness which

are effective for MY 1975

cars and those which will

become effective during

the 1976-80 period (protection for front, rear

side, rollover, fire), 30

mph frontal performance.

Same as Level I plus 40

mph passive frontal protection, 20 mph passive

side protect ion and

egress.

Level Ill. . . . . . . . . . Same as Level I plus passive protection for—

Impacts:

All FM VSSSC pertaining to

crash avoidance which are

effective for MY 1975

cars and those which will

become effective during

the 1976-80 period (braking performance, lighting,

field of view, and other).

Same as Level I plus all

weather brake performance (anti lock brakes).

Same as Level II plus run

f I at tires.

Both Levels I & II correspond

to existing standards (Part

581 requiring that front and

rear bumper sustain 5 mph

impacts without damage to

vehicle except for m i nor

dents on bumpers).

Same as Level I for impact

speeds up to 10 mph.

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

50 mph flat barrier frontal (O-45) angle

50 mph narrow barrier

100 mph car to car al ined

100 mph car to car offset

45 mph car to car side

30 mph rollover

50 mph car to car rear

Egress, all test conditions

No fuel leakage, all test

conditions -

Table 95.—Effectiveness of Level II

Crashworthiness With Air Cushion

Restraint Systems

automobile 21 with no observable negative effect

on vehicle sales. The average new car buyer

now spends $750 to $1,000 on comfort and convenience options.

22 This indicates that additional vehicle safety, costing perhaps $4OO to

$800, may be within acceptable limits.

Fatality Injury

reduction reduction

(percent) a (percent)

Air cushion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43 20

Air cushion and lap belt. . . . . . 50 24

Level II and air cushion . . . . . . 59 23

Level ll, air cushion, and

lap belt . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65 27

Vehicles in Use

The primary policy consideration for vehicles

in use is mandatory periodic motor vehicle inspections. Vehicle-in-use safety inspection programs were in effect in many States even before

enactment of the Highway Safety Act of 1966. It

“U.S. Department of Transportation, National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, The Contributions of Automobile

Regulation, Preliminary Report, June 1978.

211 bid
Ch. 7—Safety Issues, Policies, and Findings ● 215

has been shown that bad tires and bad brakes

contribute to crashes (up to 5 percent of total

crashes) .23 The actual number of cars on the

road operating with inadequately maintained

brakes and worn tires may be much higher, 24

The impetus for uniform inspection programs

may come from efforts to meet emissions goals

since including a safety inspection in such a procedure is logical.

The effect of current inspection programs in

reducing crashes, injury, and death has not been

clearly demonstrated. Any upgrading or broadening of such programs would not have the support of reliable effectiveness data. The primary

impact is cost to the consumer for repair and

and replacement of parts, particularly in addition to repairs to meet fuel-economy and emissions requirements.

User Performance

In the Highway Safety Needs Report, the

three strategies with the highest lifesaving

potential are related to driver behavior. They

are increased seatbelt usage, the 55 mph speed

limit, and alcohol countermeasures.

Seat belts have been required in all passenger

cars since 1964. However, the current usage rate

is only about 20 percent (15 percent lap and

torso, 5 percent lap only). Even at this low

degree of use, it is estimated that about 3,OOO

lives are saved annually by the use of belts. It is

also estimated that an increase to a 70-percent

lap and shoulder belt usage rate would save an

additional 8,500 lives per year and prevent

162,000 injuries of severity 2 to 5 on the AIS

code. (See table 93. )

With passive restraints entering the fleet in

the 1980’s, seat belts and seat belt laws may not

be as important in the long run. However, passive restraints will not be widespread in the

vehicle fleet until the 1990’s. Also, 25 percent of

‘3U. S. Department of Transportation, National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, Tn-1.ezlel Study of the Causes of Traffic

Accidents F~rral Report, Volume I: Causal Factor Tabulations and

Assessments, prepared by Institute for Research in Public Safety,

Indiana University, Report No. DOT-HS-034-3-S35 -77-TAC,

Mar. 31,1977,

“]oseph I. Innes, Vlabll]ty ot the Nlotor L’ehlcle Dlagnost]c Inspectl(~n Concept Demonstrated b}’ NHTSA, F/ft)~ lt~tc’rtzutlo)lal

C“(lncKrET~~ OF? A l{f(l}t)(~t~tt’ SOfctv – Pr c~,-l’t’~i~t~<g. ( \\’ashlngtc~n,

11 C L] S. Department ot Transportation” ~

the vehicle fleet is composed of light trucks, a

percentage that is expected to rise. Currently

there is no requirement for passive restraints in

vehicles other than passenger cars, although

such a regulation for light trucks is under consideration by DOT.

Two types of passive restraint systems are

being considered to meet the Federal standard:

the air cushion restraint system (ACRS, or air

bag) and the passive seat belt. The ACRS used

with a lap belt is considered to offer the best

overall protection, although the passive belt

system is also quite effective. The passive seat

belt is a “coercive” system, in that the user must

agree to leave the belt in place. The passive belts

can be easily disconnected.

There are several approaches that may raise

the level of seat belt usage: educational or promotional campaigns, economic incentives, and

mandated belt use.

Promotional campaigns, the approach now

used by the Federal Government, do not appear

to have much potential. Incentives such as insurance credits, or other economic rewards,

have not been tried in this country. Mandatory

belt-use laws are in effect in 16 foreign countries, 2 Canadian provinces, and Puerto Rico.

The success of these laws varies, primarily depending on social acceptance and the level of enforcement. (See table 96. )

One of the best examples of mandatory belt

use laws is that of the State of Victoria, Australia. In 1970, surveys showed safety belt use

rates in Australia to be comparable to those in

the United States—about 20 percent. After the

law became effective in January 1971, the usage

rate rose to about 50 percent immediately,

despite an amnesty on prosecution against offenders. When enforcement and prosecution

were implemented, the use rate rose to an average of 75 percent in the metropolitan area of

Victoria .25 By early 1972, following the reported

success in reducing injuries and deaths in Victoria, all of the other Australian states had

enacted similar laws. The reported results are

mixed but favorable. Table 96 shows a 25-percent reduction in deaths and a 20-percent reduction in injuries in Australia from 1972 to 1974.

“R, Ungers, “The Introduction of Compulsory Seat Belt Wearing Laws in Australia and Their Effect, ” Proceedings of the Sc/er~-

tific Co) Iference on Traffic Safety (Ottawa, Canada: 1974).
216 . Changes in the Future Use and Characteristics of the Automobile Transportation System

Country

Czechoslovakia .

Japa n

Max $20

Max $200

$10-$20

New Zealan d

France

Puerto RICO . , $10 July 1973

30/0

Swede n Max $100 360/0

Usual $10

$15

$1.50-$15.00

Luxembour g

Netherlands ,

$5-$12.50

$0.20-$120

Finland ,

Norway .,

None

None

3 Yes

o Yes

Israel ., . , Max $110 3 Yes

$8

None

$20-100

1-2 Yes

1 Yes

1 Yes

May 1975

35-500/0

$1.50

$10-$20 o-1 None 190/o

Other examples of foreign experience with usage law was put into effect in 1975 and met

seat belt laws are not as encouraging. In Puerto

Rico, the usage rate rose from 3 percent to only

25 percent between 1973 and 1976. In Japan, the

laws are not enforced and the usage rate is

reported to be 8 percent. On the other hand,

Norway, with no enforcement, has usage rates

of 61 percent in rural areas and 32 percent in urban areas. In Sweden, the mandatory seat belt

with a high degree of public acceptance, resulting in high usage rates. Approximately 80

percent of front seat occupants in Sweden were

observed to wear seat belts.

Foreign experience indicates that mandatory

seat belt use laws can be an effective safety

measure. However, foreign experiences tells little about their probable success in this country.
Ch. 7—Safety Issues, Policies, and Findings . 217

It is clear that the use of seat belts saves lives

and reduces injury, and mandatory seat belt

laws with reasonable levels of enforcement

would probably increase the usage rate somewhat. However, no State in the United States

has enacted legislation requiring seat belt use.

Public opinion seems to be against such a law,

which is regarded as an undue infringement of

individual freedom.

Speed

The national 55 mph speed limit went into effect in early 1974. There were 9,000 fewer traffic

deaths in 1974 compared with 1973, a 17-percent reduction. The average speed on rural interstate highways before 1974 was above 6 5

mph. In 1974 and 1975, the average rural interstate speed dropped to below 58 mph,
218 ● Changes in the Future Use and Characteristics of the Automobile Transportation System

Many studies have examined the relationship

between the drop in fatalities and the speed

limit, and various conclusions have been

reached. The evidence seems to indicate that

reduced highway speeds contributed to the

reduction in traffic deaths, but the magnitude of

this contribution is subject to debate. Many

researchers believe that about 50 percent of the

reduction in deaths in 1974 was due to the 55

mph speed limit. 26 DOT data show that the

most significant drop in fatality rates occurred

on highway systems most affected by the reduced speed limit—the Interstate System and

rural primary roads. However, other factors

could be involved, as evidenced by the fact that

urban pedestrian deaths also dropped about 17

percent from 1973 to 1974. It is unlikely that urban pedestrian fatalities were affected by the

speed limit change.

DOT data indicate that in 1976 and 1977 the

average speed on the highways, and the percentage of drivers operating their vehicles above the

posted speed limit, increased steadily over the

1974 and 1975 figures. 27 The speed limit is actually a State law, and enforcement of the law is

a matter for the States. There is lack of support

for strict enforcement in many State legislatures, and enforcement places an increased imposition on enforcement agencies. DOT claims

the public has indicated support for the speed

limit. 28 However, the public’s most convincing

expression on the matter is how fast they drive.

One apparent factor in noncompliance is that

the original intent of the law—to save gasoline—is not perceived as necessary.

In October 1977, the Secretary of Transportation recommended that the President seek from

Congress dedicated funding assistance for State

speed limit enforcement, and the authority to

establish compliance standards .29 In the recently

signed Highway Safety Act of 1978, Congress

‘“U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Highway Administration, Safety Aspects of th~ National 5.5 MPH Speed Limit,

November IQ76.

‘“U.S. Department of Transportation, Report to th~ Presulenf

on Compliance With the 5,5 MPH Speed Limit, Oct. 14, 1977, and

personal communication with the Office of Statistics and Analysis,

U.S. DOT.

‘nIbid,

“Ibid.

authorized $50 million for the States for each

fiscal year from 1979 through 1982 along with a

compliance schedule, penalties, and incentives

for enforcement of the speed limit.

The debate on speed limits and safety is not

over. The equilibrium of the reduced speed limit

has not been reached, and most conclusions on

the subject can be considered only tentative.

Educational and promotional campaigns to convince people to drive slower for safety and fuel

economy have suffered, and will probably continue to suffer, from credibility problems. Increased enforcement levels may produce a public backlash.

The safety aspects of the 55 mph speed limit

need to be addressed from a broader base of experience. Speed is relevant to safety primarily in

the context of a crash. The data regarding

speeds at which crashes occur are inadequate.

The DOT Crash Recorder Program, designed to

collect this data, was initiated many years ago

and has consistently failed to gain congressional

support. Speeding in the context of “reckless

driving” can also contribute to the cause of a

crash. Trying to enforce speed limits in general

does not readily address this problem.

There is also the question of why motor vehicles need to have the capacity for high speed.

Data on traffic behavior under constrained topspeed conditions is limited, although many

vehicles on the road essentially have a limited

top speed of 60 to 70 mph. Vehicle engine sizes

are becoming smaller as the country moves into

the “economy” era. Still, top-speed limitation

would be considered by many to be an infringement on personal (and technological) freedoms,

and would inhibit manufacturers from using

“power” and “speed” as a common part of sales

campaigns. These arguments, however, overlook the consideration that drivers of the next

generation may feel differently about automobiles and driving.

Interestingly, top speed for electric vehicles is

a primary constraint and is traded-off with vehicle range. If electric vehicles became widely

used, top-speed limitation would be an inherent

feature of the automobile transportation system.
Ch. 7—Safety Issues, Policies, and Findings • 219

Alcohol Use

Alcohol consumption per capita has risen 50

percent in the United States since 1960. This

high rate of increase is not expected to continue,

but alcohol will probably continue to be the

customary social intoxicant, 30 Alcohol use is a

far-reaching social phenomenon. The data suggest that alcohol is a factor present in as much as

50 percent of crashes involving occupant fatality and in one-third of the fatal pedestrian

crashes. s] Data are not available to determine

that alcohol is, in fact, the cause of such crashes.

However, the debilitating effects of excessive

consumption of alcohol on perception, on the

motor-sensory system and, in some cases, on

personality, are well known from experimental

studies. It can be inferred that the risk of a crash

increases as the driver’s performance capability

degrades. What is not known is how to alter this

cultural habit or separate the task of driving

from alcohol use.

There have been several notable attempts to

curb or control the use of alcohol with driving.

The Alcohol Safety Action Program in the

United States and the Scandinavian drunkdriving laws are examples.

The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration sponsored 35 local Alcohol Safety

Action Programs (ASAP) at a cost of about $70

million over a 2-year period. In the ASAP communities, enforcement activities regarding

drunk-driving laws were intensified, and efforts

to identify and rehabilitate problem drinkers

were increased. NHTSA initially claimed a

small reduction in fatalities as a result of the

ASAP program. Other researchers have disputed this claim, stating that year-to-year fluctuations in fatalities in ASAP areas could account for changes that occurred during the program. 32 NHTSA, when discussing ASAP in an-

‘“U. S. Department of Transportation, National Highway Traitlc Safety Admlnlstratl[>n, Nut~orza/ HighuIu,v SufcJtv Forecast, A

1940 Traff~c SufetY Out/,IoL, September 1 Q76.

“U.S. Department (If Health, Educarion, and Welfare, Public

Health Service, National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and

A!cohollsrn, St~c(>nd Spec/al Rrp,]rt to thp Congress on Alcohol

arid Hrulth June 1 Q74,

“PaL]] L, Zador, ‘Statlstlcal Evaluation of the Effectiveness of

Alcohol Satety Action J>r(}jects, ” AccIJcnt ArI[~/LV</S urzd Prc~’cw

tI(IrI L’ol. 8, No, 1, February 1976.

nual reports, makes no claim to any safety improvements as a result of the program, The success of ASAP is said to be the improvement in

the local traffic safety system, and the fund of

experience gained. 33

Scandinavian countries have had fairly strict

drunk-driving laws for over 30 years. Their approach is characterized by the routine penalty of

imprisonment for attaining a specified level of

blood alcohol, determined by scientific tests.

Studies in Sweden indicate that the incidence of

intoxication in fatally injured drivers is about 30

percent, or somewhat less than the 50 percent

found in this country. However, a recent analysis of the Scandinavian data raises questions

regarding the credibility of this information and

casts doubt on the effectiveness of strict drunkdriving laws as a deterrent to drunk driving. ”

Other countermeasure programs have been

tried in the United States, Canada, Austria,

Great Britain, and Czechoslovakia. While few

of these programs have been thoroughly and

systematically analyzed, there is doubt about

their success and the practicality of the countermeasures employed.

Several findings in the literature are noteworthy. Alcohol abuse is not solely a problem

on the highways although symptoms and consequences of the problem can be found there.

The use of alcohol by society is widespread and

accepted. Moderate use of alcohol may even

have beneficial effects on some users. Yet the

United States appears to lack any consensus on

what constitutes responsible use of alcohol . 35

This statement could be extended to include

drugs used for medicinal and other purposes,

Without consensus on what constitutes excessive use, there is a limited justification for enactment of alcohol-related highway safety countermeasures.

“U.S. Department ot Transportation, National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, Federal Highway Administration,

l-ltg)~uwy Sufcty 2977, DOT HS-803 372, June 1978.

‘“Laurence H. Ross, “The Scandinavian Myth: The Effectiveness of Drinking-and-Driving Legislation in Sweden and Norway, ’ The ]oumal CIf Legal StudIe5, Vol. 4, No. 2, June 1975.

“U.S. Department of Health, Education, and Welfare, Alcohol

a)7d Health
220 • Changes in the Future Use and Characteristics of the Automobile Transportation System

Support Systems

Support systems include data collection, construction and maintenance, procedures, traffic

laws, enforcement, insurance, product liability,

and emergency medical service, Many of these

items have significant potential for safety improvement policy in the short and long term.

Some of these improvements are listed as prospective countermeasures in tables 89 to 91.

Improved construction and maintenance

practices are shown to be very cost-effective.

Improved emergency medical countermeasures

could potentially save many lives. In 1975, it

was reported that 47 percent of traffic fatalities

died either en route to the hospital (6 percent),

in the emergency room (35 percent) or in the

hospital (6 percent) .3’ Emergency medical service is an important element in highway safety,

both in appropriate trauma treatment and rapid

evacuation to an appropriate facility.

Goals

Specific goals for vehicle emissions and fuel

economy have shown themselves to be useful

and effective. It is important to consider the

utility of specific and quantitative goals as a

way to promote future traffic safety. Section

401 of the Highway Safety Act of 1966 states

that “the Secretary is authorized and directed to

assist and cooperate . . . to increase highway

safety. ” Section 402 of the same law states that:

“Each State shall have a highway safety program . . . designed to reduce traffic accidents

and deaths, injuries, and property damage

resulting therefrom. ” The preface to the National Traffic and Motor Vehicle Safety Act of

1966 states: “That Congress hereby declares that

the purpose of this act is to reduce traffic accidents and deaths and injuries to persons

resulting from traffic accidents. ” The question

arises, however, whether these goals, as written, provide sufficient stimuli for achievement

and whether some of these stated objectives

would have been met if it had not been for the

17-percent reduction in fatalities that occurred

in 1974 for other reasons.

In 1968, just 2 years after enactment of the

major safety legislation, the Department of

Health, Education, and Welfare issued a report

of the Secretary’s Advisory Committee on Highway Safety. 37 In discussing the relatively uncharted areas of the highway safety field, the

report stated:

There do not exist even the most rudimentar y

standards of performance by which to measure

achievement. This suggests that traffic safet y

might well be one of the first areas of national effort to be made the subject of a carefull y

elaborated and comprehensive set of nationa l

goals. At that point it will become possible to

make dependable calculations as to what allocation of resources will be required to achieve

goals that have been set . . . it is in the context

of such national goals the research and program

priorities should be established. “38

The data collection and analysis process

necessary to formulate specific goals and assess

progress toward reaching them is within the current state-of-the-art. Data now collected by the

States, and the present (FARS) and future

(NASS) data collection programs of the DOT

may be adequate for such a purpose. But the

adequacy is not universally accepted, and the

outcome of the continuing debate will, by

necessity, lead to improving the data. The data

are most limited in the areas of selecting and

evaluating safety countermeasures that might be

used to meet specified goals, Also, there is considerably less data on traffic injuries than on

traffic deaths.

The difficulty with safety goals is in the process of setting them, and the framework, the

plan, and the lines of responsibility for achieving them. Safety goals could be expressed either

as some target for reduction of total deaths, injuries, and property damage resulting from accidents or as a scheduled reduction in the rates

of deaths, injuries, and property damage based

on exposure to risk (e. g., miles of travel or years

of vehicle occupant exposure).

1968,
Ch. 7—Safety Issues, Policies, and Findings . 221

Such goals could be set either for the Nation

as a whole or for each State. Alternatively,

States could set their own goals in consultation

with the Federal Government. The national goal

would thus become the sum of State goals. Safety goals could be established either systemwide

or for each element of the automobile transportation system (i. e., vehicles, highways, and

highway users) and for specified subclasses

within each element. For example, there might

be separate goals for large and small passenger

cars, or there might be separate goals for each

class of roads.

until now, has been inadequate or nonexistent. 39

The nature of the problem is such that the

achievement of goals will require participation

by all parties to improve all elements of the

transportation system. Goals could provide a

direct stimulus for coordinated action. This, in

turn, could help to resolve the stifling negotiations on implementation of technological improvement. Further, setting goals and formulating plans to achieve them would focus attention

on the levels of expenditures needed and on the

payoffs from these investments—both in monetary terms and in the quality of life.

Safety goals could provide a focus for longrange, comprehensive safety planning which,

Chapter 8.— MOBILITY ISSUES, POLICIES, AND FINDINGS

Page

Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 225

Background . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 226

Present Policy and Projections. . . . ............227

issues and Policy Alternatives . ...............228

The Amount and Distribution of Mobility .. ...228

Reducing the Need and Desire to Travel .. ....234

Analysis of increased Mobility Policies. . . ......236

Effects. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .........237

Impacts .......,.. . ......................241

Analysis of improved Accessibility Policies. ....242

Effects . . . . . . . . . . ........................243

Impacts . . . . . . . . .........................246

LIST OF TABLES

Table No. Page

97. Spectrum of TSM Actions . ...............229

98. Characteristics of Automated Guideway

Transit . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ...232

99. Assumed Highway Expenditures, Increased

Mobility Case. , . .......................237

100. Vehicle Miles of Travel and Speeds,

Increased Mobility Case . ................237

Page

101. Transit Financing Assumptions, increased

Mobility Case. . . ..................,....239

102. Transit Service Levels, increased

Mobility Case. . . .......................239

103. Projected Annual Transit Ridership,

Increased Mobility Case . ................240

104. Auto Ownership and Other Impacts of

increased Mobility Policies. . .............240

105. Automobile Energy Demand, increased

Mobility Case . . . . . . ....................241

106. Air Quality impacts of Increased

Mobility Policies. . ......................241

107. Average Annual Displacements Due to Highway Construction, Increased Mobility Case .242

108. Transit Financing Assumptions, Improved

Accessibility Case . .....................245

109. Transit Service Levels, Improved

Accessibility Case. . ....................245

110. Projected Annual Transit Ridership,

Improved Accessibility Case . ............246

111. Auto Ownership and Other impacts of

Improved Accessibility Policies . ..........247

112. Automobile Energy Demand, improved

Accessibility Case. . ....................248

113. Air Quality impacts of Improved

Accessibility Policies . ..................248
SUMMARY

Past and present Government policies have

promoted increased personal mobility as a principal national objective. The automobile is the

main means of travel for all but the longest intercity trips and trips within the densest urban

areas. The automobile, however, does not well

serve the needs of some handicapped, elderly,

young, and poor persons, for whom remedial

policies are required.

It is projected that auto travel will grow by 75

percent between 1975 and 2000. Stricter fuel

economy standards, reduced highway construction, and auto disincentives currently programmed to conserve petroleum and improve

urban air quality will have little effect on the

amount of auto travel. Only a severe petroleum

shortage or gasoline rationing could bring about

major reductions in auto use. In the long run—

50 years or so—changes in urban development

policies to channel growth into “high accessibility” areas would also be effective by reducing

the need to travel. Changes in lifestyle or development of telecommunications as a substitute

for travel could also have significant impacts on

the auto system, but probably not before 2000.

Under current policies, congestion—particularly on urban highways and streets—is expected to increase substantially. By 2000, urban

drivers will encounter congested conditions 3

times more frequently than today. To avoid this

congestion and maintain present levels of service on the Nation’s highways through the year

2000 would require construction expenditures

more than 60 percent higher than those forecast

for the Base Case. Highway maintenance will

also continue to be an important concern. The

Nation’s highways will deteriorate greatly,

unless strong Federal initiatives are taken to increase maintenance.

Consideration was given to several measures

to improve mobility. Major expansion of public

transit assistance could increase transit ridership

by as much as 55 percent in urban areas if accompanied by appropriate auto disincentives.

Such a program would cost the Federal Government more than $7.2 billion annually (in 1975

dollars) —about 5 times more than the 1975 expenditures of $1.5 billion. This program would

also reduce State and local transit burdens in

2000 from the Base Case projection of $4.9 billion to $1.9 billion per year, close to today’s

levels.

Transportation system management techniques could be used in the short run to improve

traffic flow and provide greater efficiency in the

use of transportation facilities.

The utility of paratransit services was also

analyzed. It was determined that a special services program funded at $5oO million annually

could increase the mobility of the handicapped

and elderly by 80 percent. (The young and the

poor would benefit most from improvements in

conventional transit. ) Other forms of paratransit to provide community or general transit

service would be beneficial, but extremely expensive under prevailing wage and labor conditions.

Within metropolitan areas, ridesharing has

the potential to reduce petroleum consumption,

automobile emissions, consumer costs, and traffic congestion. Increased acceptance of this form

of transportation depends more on institutional

changes than on financial assistance. Ridesharing would gain greater acceptance if accompanied by transportation use controls.

Except for gasoline rationing or allocation,

none of the policies examined in this study

would affect automobile travel by more than 4

225
226 ● Changes in the Future Use and Characteristics of the Automobile Transportation System

percent. However, drivers and passengers will passengers, but not necessarily with any loss of

have to accommodate themselves to certain comfort. Automobiles will have improved safechanges in the comfort and convenience of the ty features but, because of the deterioration in

automobile. The typical car of the future will be roads and bridges, the ride may be less smooth,

smaller and less powerful. It will carry fewer and perhaps less safe.

BACKGROUND

One of the goals of society is to enable citizens to take part in activities that improve and

maintain their social and economic well-being.

Essential to the attainment of this goal is the

ability to reach jobs, consumer goods, recreation sites, and other desired activities. To this

end, the Federal Government has acted as a major provider and regulator of transportation

services. The challenge today is to find new

technological and institutional solutions that

will improve the individual’s ability to reach

desired and necessary activities by a mode of

transportation that is compatible with other national goals—energy conservation, environmental protection, and public safety.

Mobility can be measured as the number of

transportation options available for a trip as

well as the cost, comfort, convenience, safety,

reliability, and speed of the trip. Mobility can

be improved by improving one or more of these

seven characteristics of personal tripmaking.

There are two alternatives to improved mobility. The first is to improve accessibility by

bringing people and activities into greater proximity. The other is to reduce the need for travel,

by promoting substitutes for travel (such as telecommunications) or by fostering changes in attitudes and lifestyles to reduce the desire to

travel.

The Federal Government has financed transportation since 1823 and has regulated it since

1887. Originally these activities were prompted

by a national interest in opening up undeveloped parts of the country. Because legal and

constitutional limitations prevented the States

from undertaking some transportation-related

activities, a strong Federal role began to evolve.

The first Federal-aid highway act was passed

in 1916. The Federal-Aid Road Act of 19161 provided for Federal and State sharing of highway

construction costs on a 50/50 basis. Each State

was to establish a highway department that

would develop management and construction

standards acceptable to the Federal Government. This was followed by other highway acts

which, in addition to providing more Federal

monies, increased Federal involvement

Other milestones in the history

highway policymaking include:

1930’s—beginning of Federal a,

roads,

.

of Federal

d for local

1956—creation of the Highway Trust Fund,

financed by taxes collected on petroleum

products and tires,

1962—comprehensive State planning required as a condition for receipt of highway

construction monies from the Federal Government,

1973—the Federal-Aid Highway Act of

19732 allowed local jurisdictions to divert

Highway Trust Fund monies to mass transit

capital expenditures.

Mobility will continue to be an issue of major

public importance. For most of this century,

mobility has been steadily improving; and the

degree of Federal involvement has grown. Substantial redirection of transportation policy may

now be necessary to maintain current levels of

mobility or to expand mobility further.

‘Federul-Aid Road Act of 1916, Statutes at Large 39, sec. 355

(1916).

‘Federa/-Aid Highuwy Art of 197.3 Stotuttx at Large 87, sec. 250

( 1973], U. S Code. Vol. 23, sec. 101 ( 1Q73).
Ch. 8—Mobility Issues, Policies, and Findings ● 227

PRESENT POLICY AND PROJECTIONS

The future mobility of the population will be

strongly influenced by demographic trends and

future economic conditions and by Federal

transportation policies. Between 1975 and 2000,

the population is expected to increase over 20

percent. The urbanization of the population will

continue. More persons (particularly women)

will be in the labor force, and real incomes will

double. Thus, by 2000, it is projected that there

will be 36 percent more licensed drivers than in

1975 and 56 percent more cars on the road. The

total amount of automobile driving will increase

by almost 75 percent to 1.8 trillion vehicle miles

annually.

The Base Case assumes that the Federal Government will not build new highways at a pace

sufficient to keep up with the growth in personal

automobile travel. Although it is assumed that

total highway spending by all levels of government will remain the same in constant dollars,

the proportion spent on new construction will

decline by 2000 to half of what it is now. As a

result, travel times will increase, particularly in

urban areas where average speeds will be 10 to

15 percent slower and where motorists will encounter congested conditions 3 times as often as

today.

Transportation System Management (TSM)

techniques can be used to improve the movement of persons and vehicles in urban areas at

relatively low cost. Both the Urban Mass Transportation Administration (UMTA) and the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) are encouraging the use of TSM to avoid costly capital

projects such as new expressways and rail rapid

transit systems. However, the responsibility for

TSM is spread across many programs in the

Department of Transportation (DOT), with no

central focus. For the Base Case, therefore, TSM

is assumed to have limited impacts on mobility.

The highway funding assumptions for the

Base Case envisage that more money will be

available for maintenance. However, much of it

will be absorbed by minor reconstruction and

bridge replacement, leaving roadways in appreciably worse condition than today.

Fuel economy mandates will make the typical

car of the future smaller and less powerful than

the automobiles of the 1960’s. However, equipping all cars with passive restraints by 1984 and

making them more crashworthy will make occupants less vulnerable to death and serious injury. It is assumed in the Base Case that the level

of compliance—or noncompliance—with the 55

mph speed limit will not change significantly

and that there will be little change in automobile

safety or travel time.

Federal Government support for public transit has been growing in recent years. Financial

assistance programs are assumed to continue

growing until 1985 and then remain at that level

through 2000. Operating deficits, already rising

steadily, will grow even faster since the new

services provided with this Federal assistance

will also require subsidies. By 2000, the State

and local transit burden could rise to $4.9 billion annually. Total ridership on conventional

transit would increase only modestly (about 15

percent) over this period. Without an increase in

the level of support, ridership by the transit

dependent would decline slightly on a per capita

basis.

As part of the RD&D program of UMTA,

four downtown people mover systems are expected to be operating by 1985. Future installations will depend on the success of these demonstrations. Urban rail systems currently under

construction will be completed, and several existing systems will be expanded. It is expected

that only two or three new rail rapid transit

systems will be started; UMTA will probably

show a strong preference for light rail. These

systems will have important effects on local

mobility, but the improvements will be barely

perceptible on a national basis. The future for

automated guideway technologies is uncertain,

but they are expected to have little or no impact

on mobility by 2000. It is assumed that fares,

which averaged 33 cents per ride in 1975, will

fall to 20 cents by 1985 (in 1975 dollars) to encourage ridership. Fares are assumed to remain

at that level until 2000. Most of the fare decrease

will be in the form of reductions for the elderly

and handicapped.
228 ● Changes in the Future Use and Characteristics of the Automobile Transportation System

ISSUES AND POLICY ALTERNATIVES

Five mobility issues were identified for the

automobile assessment. The first three raise the

questions of whether, how, and for whom mobility should be expanded. The latter two,

which are examined later in this chapter, consider alternatives to reduce the need or desire for

vehicular travel. These mobility issues were

used to construct the two alternative policy sets

examined later in this chapter.

The Amount and Distribution

of Mobility

The three issues pertaining to the amount and

distribution of mobility are:

●

●

●

To what extent and by what means should

the Federal Government promote increases

in the level of general mobility?

To what extent should the Federal Government seek to change the distribution of

mobility by changing transportation policy

to aid the transportation disadvantaged?

To what extent should the Federal Government discourage automobility as a policy

for meeting national goals?

Americans have come to regard mobility as

an inalienable right. To assure this right, all

levels of government have been involved in

sponsoring the auto-highway system. However,

this arrangement has created two basic problems that have received increasing recognition

in the last decade:

● The automobile is not the ultimate in mobility for large numbers of the population.

● The automobile imposes great costs on

society because of its energy consumption,

environmental pollution, and safety problems.

Recognition of these shortcomings is causing

changes in automobile design and in the way

that Government provides transportation services. Projections indicate that the automobile

will remain the primary means of personal mobility, but changes need be brought about in the

way in which the automobile system operates.

There are several ways to expand personal

mobility:

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

Enlarge the highway system,

Expand public transportation and encourage ridership,

Implement TSM projects,

Encourage paratransit,

Aid the transportation disadvantaged,

Promote advanced transit technologies,

and

Restrict certain types of automobile travel.

Build More Highways

The first alternative, enlarging the highway

system, was adopted by the Federal Government in 1916 and is still the most widely supported mobility policy of the Federal Government. Since the first “Road Act” in 1916, the

level of service offered by the Nation’s highways

has constantly increased. Construction of interstate highways, the keystone of the system,

has maintained this service up to the present

day. Ninety percent of this system is now in

place, and the remainder is scheduled for completion by 1990. While it would be possible to

expand mobility further by means of new highways, this can be done only at great expense.

Provide More Transit

On the other hand, there are a growing number of environmentalists, energy conservationists, city officials, and transportation planners

who maintain that the automobile has had too

much Federal support. They feel that assistance

should now be directed toward public transportation. They argue that mass transit systems are

more energy efficient, less polluting, less disruptive to neighborhoods, and are the main source

of mobility for the transportation disadvantaged.

Federal assistance to public transportation

has grown considerably since the early 1960’s.

Current aid to mass transit is approaching $3
billion annually.3 The assistance requested by

AMTRAK for FY 1978 was $545 million.4 Re -

cently, intercity bus operators began lobbying

for assistance to stem their deteriorating financial condition and to compensate for the detrimental effects of AMTRAK competition. 5 There

are now proposals before Congress to aid rural

and small-town public transportation as part of

a new combined nonmetropolitan highway and

transit program. 6

Transportation Systems Management

One alternative to expensive new highway

projects in urban areas is to improve the management and efficiency of existing transportation systems. This is known as Transportation

Systems Management (TSM) and includes such

actions as reserved lanes for high-occupancy vehicles, promotion of carpools and vanpools,

shared-ride taxis, improved transit service, and

automobile disincentives (tolls, parking bans,

and parking taxes). (See table 97. )

Recognizing the need for TSM, UMTA and

FHWA issued a joint regulation in 19757 requiring that TSM be part of the Urban Transportation Planning Process. This regulation labeled

TSM as the short-term element of urban area

transportation planning. Most TSM actions are

designed to produce two principal effects: to improve the flow of vehicles on existing rights-ofway, and to improve the load factors of the

vehicles on these rights-of-way. g However,

many of the technologies listed in table 97, such

as congestion pricing and auto-restricted zones,

are still foreign to the American city. Further,

many of these strategies will work at the expense of some stakeholder groups, even though

benefiting others.

3“UMTA Asks Congress for Transit Money, ” Paswrrger Tramport 36 (Apr. 7, 1978): 1,3.

“’Amtrak Asks for $56.5 Million More, ” Railuwy Age 178 (oct.

10, 1977): 26.

5U. S. Congress, House, Committee on Public Works and Transportation, Higlwuy Transit Proposals, hearings before the Subcommittee on Surface Transportation, 95th Con,, 2d sess., 1978,

sec. 405(a).

‘U.S. Congress, Senate, H~ghumy lmpro~~er?lent Act of 1978, S.

2440, 95th Con., 2d sess., 1978, sec. 405(a).

‘Federal Register 40 (Sept. 17, 1975): 42976-42984.

‘Most definitions of TSM include paratransit. The benefits of

“ridesharing” or “pooling” in improving traffic flow are obvious.

The small-bus and special services, while not necessarily having a

significant impact on traffic flow, are more closely tailored to very

specific markets and operate more effectively than conventional

transit.

Ch. 8—Mobility Issues, Policies, and Findings

Table 97.—Spectrum of TSM Actions

● 2 2 9

Improved vehicular flow

● Improvements i n signalized intersection

● Freeway ramp metering

. One-way streets

● Removal of on-street parking

● Reversible lanes

• Traffic channelization

. Off-street loading

. Transit stop relocation

Preferential treatment of high-occupancy vehicles

. Freeway bus and carpool lanes and access

ramps

Ž Bus and carpool lanes on city streets and urban

arterials

. Bus preemption of traffic signals

. TolI policies

Reduced peak-period travel

● Work rescheduling

● Congestion pricing

● Peak-period truck restrictions

Parking management

. Parking reguIations

. Park-and-ride faciIities

Promotion of nonauto or high-occupancy auto use

• Ridesharing

. Human-powered travel modes

. Auto-restricted zones

Transit and paratransit service improvements

. Transit marketing

● Security measures

● Transit shelters

● Transit terminals

• Transit fare policies and fare Collection techniques

• Extension of transit with paratransit services

● Integration of transportation services

Transit management efficiency measures

. Route evaluation

• Vehicle communication and monitoring techniques

● Maintenance policies

. Evaluation of system performance

SOURCE U S. Department of Transportation, Federal Highway Admlnlstration

and Urban Mass Transportat Ion Adm In Istrat Ion, Trarvsporf.stfon

.Sysfern tdanagemen( State of ttre Art, February 1977, p V.

Unlike master planning of land use and longrange transportation planning, TSM has not yet

become institutionalized. Although there are a

number of funding options for the Federal Government to support TSM, they are scattered

over a number of separate categorical grant programs with differing requirements and matching

ratios. This situation creates disincentives to an

effective local TSM program.9

9“UMTA Red Tape Costs Millions, ” Passenger Transport 36

(Apr. 7, 1978): 1.
230 ● Changes in the Future Use and Characteristics of the Automobile Transportation System

Many actions now labeled as TSM have been

instituted in urban areas as part of normal traffic control improvements. In some cases, these

TSM actions were adopted as alternatives to

larger scale improvements which could not be

funded. The joint regulation of TSM projects by

UMTA and FHWA has institutionalized this

process. As a result, TSM actions must undergo

the same regional review and approval process

as major long-range, capital-intensive projects.

In addition, many TSM actions must also be

submitted for DOT review and approval.

UMTA is currently attempting to add staff and

to decentralize its grant approvals to hasten this

process.

While there can be little argument with the inherent virtues of TSM, the projected high

growth in urban traffic congestion makes it

clear that TSM alone is not the solution. A large

capital improvement program is necessary just

to maintain current conditions. Additionally,

there is a limit to the amount of TSM that can be

carried out in a given area without TSM programs themselves becoming capital-intensive.

Paratransit

One concept, often considered a part of TSM,

is paratransit, This includes ridesharing and

small-bus or special systems. Ridesharing (carpooling, vanpooling, buspooling) generally offers the rider cost-savings, reliability, and freedom from having to drive himself. A recent

study of 21 cities revealed that 18 percent of the

commuters traveled in carpools, 10 An additional

incentive for a vanpool driver is the free use of

the van nights and weekends. In some pools,

where the institution organizing the pool owns

or leases the van, a small mileage charge may be

levied. A vanpool driver can sometimes make a

small profit if the vehicle is subscribed to capacity.

Carpooling is currently the most popular

form of ridesharing, mostly for workers at large

installations. Carpools are generally formed by

the riders, although there is a growing tendency

for employers or communities to help organize

carpools. Most vanpools are employer-sponsored, with the employer owning or leasing the

‘“U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census,

Sclectelf Churartenst[cs of Truzlel to ~clrk 7)1 21 Metr[Jpo/~tat~

Arcus: 1975 February 1978, p, 1.

vehicles and riders covering the operating expenses.

There are some major impediments to widespread pooling. The first is the loss of convenience. Pool vehicles run on tight schedules, and

all riders must conform. There is no “late bus. ”

Unless priority is given to the pool vehicle, the

trip usually takes longer than driving alone. The

biggest impediment is in forming pools, For

commuting, there must be enough willing people with similar origins, destinations, and work

hours for the idea to work. Thus, pools are

usually inappropriate for small towns, dispersed

small-employment sites, and low-density residential areas.

The greatest potential for pooling would be

achieved if a large share of commuters in a

particular area or corridor would shift from

private autos to higher occupancy vehicles,

Congestion, travel times, and requirements for

highway capacity would be reduced. Such conversions are unlikely without some strong incentive.

Paratransit most commonly connotes smallbus operations or special services. Even taxis are

included in some definitions. In general, paratransit is expected to serve those travel markets

(particularly the transportation disadvantaged)

not well-served by the private car or conventional bus and rail transit. Also, certain other

urban transit markets (i. e., low-density service

or feeders and distributors) can be more efficiently served by small vehicles, dial-a-ride, or

door-to-door service. However, the productivity and operating costs of these services are inferior to regular bus service, and paratransit

often requires heavy subsidies. Many systems

have trouble with the labor protection provisions of the Urban Mass Transportation Act

that generally require the use of union operators. When a small bus replaces a large one,

there is little opportunity for savings since most

transit revenues go to pay the operator’s wages.

The Transportation Disadvantaged

For physical, social, or economic reasons,

certain segments of society lack the degree of

mobility enjoyed by the majority of the population. These persons are commonly called the

“transportation disadvantaged, ” “transit dependent, ” or “carless. “ They include some of the
Ch. 8—Mobility Issues, Policies, and Findings ● 231

elderly, the handicapped, the young, the poor,

and the chronically unemployed. There are significant numbers of each. For example, there are

some 10 million nonhandicapped elderly. 11 Persons under 17 represent 34 percent of the population. 12 People living below the officially

designated poverty level (including some elderly, handicapped, and young) make up over 12

percent of the population. 13 Nationwide, nearly

20 percent of all households do not own a car.

During the past decade, the Federal Government directed special attention to the mobility

problems of the handicapped and elderly; and

today there are more than 30 Governmentsponsored programs for these groups. These

programs are of two general types:

1. Specialized transportation services (often

paratransit), and

2. Reduced fares and physical improvements

to make federally aided mass transit systems easier to use.

For the poor who are neither elderly or handicapped, there have been few programs to improve mobility—unless one includes public subsidies for mass transit systems. A justification

often given for such subsidies is that they represent a form of welfare aid to low-income households. But, at best, this aid is indirect and

limited to areas where mass transit exists. Large

numbers of poor people live in rural or suburban communities, where there usually are no

alternatives to the automobile. To overcome

these disadvantages, proposals have been advanced to replace or combine mass transit subsidies with direct “user-side” subsidies to

members of each disadvantaged group. The

subsidies would enable individuals to choose the

available transportation system that best fits

their needs—automobiles, transit, or taxis.

The most commonly stated rationale for

aiding the transportation disadvantaged is that

higher mobility will reduce poverty and improve social well-being. However, the validity

of this proposition has not been fully tested. The

prospect for Federal commitment to transportation aid for low-income individuals depends, in

part, on whether it can be shown that inadequate transportation—as opposed to low income—restricts shopping, working, recreation,

and other activities beyond walking distance.

This issue is complex. It involves not only the

disadvantaged, but also transit and taxi operators, vehicle manufacturers, all levels of government, and a variety of regulatory agencies.

Progress is being made as more is learned about

the problem. Recently implemented regulations

require all federally funded systems and improvements to be fully accessible to the elderly

and handicapped. This goal should be achieved

by the mid-1980’s, as new and replacement vehicles are purchased and as older transit stations

are modernized. Independent mobility for the

young and the poor will depend upon prospects

for expansion of public transportation service.

While current levels of capital assistance to buy

buses and build and modernize rail systems are

large and still growing, operating assistance is

quickly being swallowed up by rising operating

costs. Paratransit, which can be tailored to
232 ● Changes in the Future Use and Characteristics of the Automobile Transportation System

special needs, is less cost-effective. The elderly

of tomorrow, many of whom live in the suburbs

today, will increasingly create a suburban transit demand as their driving skills wane.

Advanced Transit Technologies

One of the new approaches proposed for

meeting urban transportation needs is the use of

automated vehicle systems operating on exclusive rights-of-way. New heavy-rail systems

such as in Washington, San Francisco, Baltimore, and Atlanta are extremely costly and

feasible only in high-density corridors. Buses

are limited by other street traffic. Automated

Guideway Transit (AGT) systems provide an

intermediate alternative. Three classes of AGT

systems are summarized in table 98.

The only AGT system currently operating in

regular urban transportation service is in

Morgantown, W.Va. (although often referred to

as a Personal Rapid Transit (PRT) system, this

is really an example of Group Rapid transit

(GRT)). A similar system, AIRTRANS, operates at the Dallas-Fort Worth Airport. Several

other airports (Miami, Seattle, Houston) and

some private theme parks also have AGT systems, but with less complex networks. UMTA

has committed $22o million to assist demonstrations of four Downtown People Movers (DPM),

which should be in operation by 1985. Additional installations will depend on the results of

these demonstrations.

The mobility benefits of AGT depend on the

type of system and the proximity of stations to

Table 98.—Characteristics of Automated Guideway Transit

Shuttle-loop transit Group rapid transit Personal rapid transit

(SLT) (GRT) (PRT)

Operations. . . . . . . . . . . .

Passenger

convenience . . . . . . . . .

System

configuration. . . . . . . . .

Areawide

formation network. . . . .

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

Simple,

single route.

Switching in a

constant manner.

Passengers use any

vehicle.

Stops at each

stat ion.

All passengers on a

route travel

together.

Shuttles and loops.

Online stations.

Switches seldom

required.

Many interfacing

shuttles or loops.

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

✎

Complex ●

multiple routes.

Prescheduled.

●

Switching reacts to

vehicle identity.

●

Passengers share ●

assigned vehicle.

May bypass some ●

stat ions.

●

Passengers travel

in groups.

Lines branch and ●

merge.

●

Online and offline

stat ions. ●

Switches required.

Multiple interfacing ●

GRT systems.

Very complex

multiple routes.

Vehicles actively

responsive to

demand.

Switching is tailored

for each passenger’s

dest inat ion.

Passengers are

assigned vehicles.

No stops en route.

Passengers travel

alone or in small,

private groups.

Coupled guideways.

Off-line stations.

Many switches

required.

Single integrated

PRT systems.
Ch. 8—Mobility Issues, Policies, and Findings ● 233

passenger origins and destinations. An important benefit of AGT is speed of travel, achieved

primarily by operating on a private right-ofway. However, separation from other traffic

contributes to the high cost of AGT systems.

Automation reduces the labor costs to operate

AGT systems, but not without increased maintenance expenditures, The energy savings of

AGT have not been proven; however, since

sources other than petroleum can be used to

generate electricity, AGT systems have a distinct advantage over automobiles, buses, and

paratransit. A 1975 OTA assessment of AGT

suggested that more research was necessary on

the economics, acceptability, and technical

aspects of AGT operation. 15

Restricted Automobile Travel

Ever since the private passenger car emerged

as a significant mode of travel, mobility and

automobility have been synonymous. Any attempt to restrict freedom of automobile use has

been regarded as limiting mobility. However, it

is now recognized that unrestrained automobility may conflict with other national goals and

that reducing automobile travel may be an important means (albeit not the only means) of

achieving significant energy, environmental,

and safety benefits.

Limiting automobility and increasing overall

mobility are not necessarily incompatible

goals— not even in the short term. Knowledge

of how the automobile best functions in a

transportation system is imperfect, and it is not

known at what point increased automobile use

leads to diminished automobility,

The Department of Transportation has proposed restricting automobility as a means of improving mobility in general. DOT aims to increase the load-carrying efficiency of congested

highways through incentives to use carpools or

existing transit systems. One such incentive is

the creation of special lanes for buses and carpools. Commuters who take advantage of these

reserved lanes typically save 15 to 20 minutes

per trip. Under favorable conditions, the commuters in single-occupancy vehicles can be little

worse off (and possibly better off) than they

1 su. . s congress, Office of Technology Assessment, Automated

Guideumy _l”ransif. An Assessment of Personal RnpId Trunslt and

Other Neul Systems, OTA-T-8, June 197s.

! 1 -C17’~ () - 7’! - 1 h

would be without the lane restrictions, Another

strategy, vanpooling, is believed to be one of the

most energy-efficient modes of surface transportation. 16

The issue of limiting automobile use often

comes down to a question of the importance the

Nation attaches to clean air, safety, and energy

conservation compared to automobility. The

Federal Government has already adopted at

least one policy that favors some other goal

over automobility. The Clean Air Act requires

reduced emissions from mobile sources, including automobiles .17 Many large cities will

not be able to meet the ambient air quality

standards by 1982 through stationary and

mobile source controls alone. *8 In such cities,

EPA may require the use of “transportation control strategies, ” including parking limitations,

auto-free zones, and improved transit to attract

drivers out of their cars. The Act also provides

for withholding Federal highway funds in areas

where EPA finds that reasonable progress is not

being made toward attainment of the standards.

The requirement for the transportation control

strategies has resulted in many court cases in the

past. However, in general, EPA has retained the

authority to require implementation in areas

where air quality standards cannot be met by

other means.

The controversy over reducing automobility

to promote other social goals raises many questions. Can the American public modify its preference for automobility —a preference encouraged by the Government for decades and fostered through billions of industry advertising

dollars? Will the intended reductions in automobile usage actually occur and will projected

energy, environmental, and safety benefits

materialize? Will, for example, parking restrictions for city commuters merely result in more

auto trips by family members in the suburbs,

using the cars that are left at home? Will a

higher gasoline tax or a special tax on heavy,

‘“U.S. Congress, Congressional Budget Office, Urbau ?_ratlsportufion arm’ Energy The Potential Satlings of Llffcrent Mode s

prepared for U.S. Senate, Committee on Environment and Public

Works, 95th Con., 1st sess., Committee Print No. 95-8, September

1977.

‘“Clean Air Act Ame~~dments of 1977, Public Law 95-o5, QI

Stat, 685, U.S. Code, Vol. 42, sec. 7401 -762b, (1977).

18The C]ean Alr Act Amendm~ nts of 1977 contain special requirements for areas that cannot achieve carbon monoxide and

oxidant standards by 1982, These areas must develop plans for

achievement of the standards no later than 1987.
fuel-inefficient, polluting cars discourage their

purchase, but actually increase the distances

driven per carowner as consumers begin switching to fuel-efficient automobiles?

As technologies for pollution control, alternate energy sources, and automobile safety

emerge, these problems could decline in importance. The leadtime for these technologies,

however, is as long as 30 years, and significant

actions may be necessary in the interim. Base

Case projections indicate that insufficient progress on the air pollution question will be made

by 2000, when at least 54 Air Quality Control

Regions are expected to remain in violation of

the oxidant standard and 24 regions will still be

in violation of the carbon monoxide standard.

Base Case projections through the year 2000 indicate that with the 27.5 mpg standard automobile petroleum consumption could be as much

as 10 percent below current levels. The number

of crashes, injuries, and fatalities will continue

to rise despite some improvements in automobile safety. Thus, it appears that it will be necessary to reexamine the relationship between

automobility and other goals of our society.

Reducing the Need and Desire to Travel

A fundamental alternative to improved mobility is offered by policies to reduce the need or

desire to travel. Such policies raise two major

issues:

●

●

To what extent should the Federal Government promote land use controls as a longterm measure to improve accessibility

while reducing the environmental and

energy problems of the automobile?

To what extent should the Federal Government attempt to reduce travel demand by
Ch. 8—Mobility Issues, Policies, and Findings ● 235

supporting nontransportation alternatives

such as telecommunications, or by encouraging less travel-dependent activities and

lifestyles?

The traditional approach to facilitate carrying

out the activities of daily life has been to provide more and better transportation. There is an

alternative—reducing the distances people must

travel or reducing the need for travel.

Federal programs have supported the general

trend toward low-density urban development.

Federally funded highway construction has increased both the speed of travel and the distances that can be traveled in a given time.

Federal mortgage loan programs have enabled

families to buy new housing in the suburbs with

low downpayments. These Federal programs

have been very popular.

Recently, however, concern about neighborhood disruption by highway construction,

worsening air quality, and increased dependence on foreign oil have caused some to

question the desirability of continued highway

building, urban sprawl, and the increasing costs

that accompany them. In general, the effects of

Federal policies that have led to scattering of development are not offset by strong land use control at any lower level of government. In a few

limited instances, States have begun to take action to preserve valuable natural assets, such as

the California and Oregon coastal zone and

some of the more sensitive farm areas. Current

Federal policy pertaining to development and

land use planning merely supports analysis of

land use impacts and information on certain

grant programs. Federal policy provides no real

encouragement for improved decisionmaking

processes or stronger controls on development.

Changes in land use policies and tax laws

could, in principle, counter urban sprawl by encouraging greater proximity between new residences and businesses. With higher densities

and mixed land uses, trip lengths would be

shorter, transit could become a more attractive

alternative, and walking could replace some vehicular travel. The result of such a development

policy would be a significant increase in small,

self-contained, high-density communities.

There are basic uncertainties about the benefits of such a pattern of development. One

uncertainty is whether the costs of providing

energy and public services for high-density

centers of multistory buildings might not be

higher than for medium-density development
236 ● Changes in the Future Use and Characteristics of the Automobile Transportation System

composed mainly of two- and three-story buildings. The other question is whether the benefits

of reduced automobile dependence justify the

personal and intangible costs of high-density

living. Based on current housing patterns, most

Americans prefer low-density living, even with

its attendant costs of pollution, energy waste,

and neighborhood disruption.

Possible avenues of Federal involvement include:

●

●

●

Eliminating tax deductions for mortgage interest and property taxes on single family

homes,

Requiring State or local land use controls

either by law or as a precondition for

Federal transportation aid, and

Encouraging State land use planning

through planning grants.

National interest in land use changes could increase substantially in the next decade as energy

and air quality problems intensify. However,

most benefits of land use controls would not

become manifest for at least 20 or 30 years.

Controls would affect only new construction

and not existing development. It might take a

generation or more for these controls to have an

appreciable influence on the pattern of community development.

Telecommunications devices could reduce the

need for business or private travel by enabling

more people to work at home. However, the effects on travel demand are by no means certain.

Increased use of telecommunications could expand the range of distant business opportunities

and thereby increase the need to travel to conduct face-to-face business. The use of radio,

telephones, and television does not appear to

have diminished travel demand in the past.

In many ways, the policies of the Federal

Government exert a direct and powerful influence on lifestyles and activities. Highway building, income tax deductions for home mortgage

interest, and the welfare system are but three examples. But the inverse is also true. Government policy reflects, however imperfectly, the

prevailing values of society. The recent concern

for environmental quality is one example of

public values influencing Federal programs.

Other values may emerge as well—less emphasis on materialism, opposition to unrestricted growth, or even new public attitudes

toward travel. Such new attitudes could be the

impetus for change in federal policy.

If such fundamental changes in societal values

occur, or if there are shifts in the priorities

assigned to present values, the consequences for

the automobile transportation system could be

profound. While it would be speculative to predict the course that changes in attitudes and

lifestyles might take, it is clearly important to

recognize that the personal transportation system exists solely to serve society’s ends. If those

ends change, so will the means by which they

are served.

ANALYSIS OF INCREASED MOBILITY POLICIES

Historically, Federal Government policy has

emphasized increased mobility to open up undeveloped lands, promote westward expansion,

assist marketing of agricultural products, and

stimulate economic development. The economic

prosperity and social structure of the country

have been viewed as dependent on widely available, low-cost transportation. The policies

studied in the Increased Mobility Case are based

on the premise that it is desirable to expand the

capacity and efficiency of highway and transit

systems in the interest of promoting the continued economic

United States.

The Increased

creased funding

and social well-being of the

Mobility policies call for inof highway and transit construction programs. The transit programs also

emphasize improved services for the transportation disadvantaged. For highways, construction

of new roads is supplemented by an extensive

and vigorous program of transportation system

management. Also included in the Increased

Mobility policies are measures to improve vehi-
Ch. 8—Mobility Issuesj Policies, and Findings ● 237

c!e crashworthiness and to discourage fuelinefficient automobiles by means of taxation.

Effects

Highways

A major aim of the Increased Mobility policies is to expand the highway system to accommodate the expected growth in VMT and to

avoid the congestion and speed reductions that

are projected to occur under Base Case conditions. Instead of decreasing annual expenditures

for highway construction to $7 billion by 2000,

as in the Base Case, they would rise to $20 billion by 1985 and remain at that level until 2000.

(see table 99. ) An additional annual outlay of

$1.5 billion would be allotted for TSM projects,

(ramp metering, lane controls, driver advisories, and safety improvements) benefiting

autos, trucks, and buses. Expenditures for

maintenance and other highway needs are

assumed to be the same as in the Base Case.

Under the Increased Mobility policies, travel

speeds in urban areas would be maintained at

their 1975 levels, instead of the 12-percent reduction expected in the Base Case. Because of

the higher levels of service, urban VMT in 2000

would be approximately 6 percent higher than

in the Base Case, as shown in table 100.19 Approximately one-half of the increase in traffic

volume and speed is due to the expenditure of

funds for TSM improvements. The other half results from capital expenditures for new highways and highway widenings.

The programmed annual expenditure of $1.5

billion for TSM would not be as effective in the

early years as it would be after 1985. Before

1985, it will be difficult to find significant numbers of opportunities where TSM will provide

‘

9 Details of the assumptions used in these computations are

given in Sydec ‘ EEA, pp. VI-16 to VI-18. These computations are

based on S. Schleifer, S. Zimmerman, and D. Gendell, The Co?~7-

rnunity Aggregate Plat~ning Mod~/ prepared for the 54th Annual

Meeting of the Transportation Research Board, 1975; Yacov

Zahavi, Trat~el T~me Budgets in LJrbarl Areas, prepared tor U.S.

Department of Transportation, Federal Highway Administration,

May 1974; and Jack Faucett Associates, System Design Concepts,

Inc., Methodology for Estlrnating the Impacts of Charlgcs In H[ghway performance, prepared for U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Highway Administration.

Table 99.—Assumed Highway Expenditures, Increased Mobility Case

(billions, 1975 dollars)

Actual Base Case Increased Mobility

1975 1985 2000 1985 2000

Capital . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14.3 11.2 7.0 20.0 20.0

TSM. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0 0 0 1.5 1.5

Maintenance . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.1 8.7 10.8 8.7 10.8

Other (administration,

police, debt, etc.). . . . . . . . 6.8 8.3 10.4 8.3 10.4

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28.2 28.2 28.2 38.5 42.7

SOURCE Sydec/EEA, p VI.15

Table 100.—VehicIe Miles of Travel and Speeds, Increased Mobility Case

Actual Base Case Increased Mobility

1975 1985 2000 1985 2000

Rural highways

Daily VMT (millions) . . . . . . 1,180 1,510 1,890 1,510 1,900

Average speed (mph) . . . . . 48 48 48 48 48

Urban highwaysa

Daily VMT (millions) . . . . . . 1,630 2,410 3,000 2,460 3,190

Average speed (mph) . . . . . 33 33 30 34 33

All highways

Daily VMT (millions) . . . . . . 2,810 3,920 4,890 3,970 5,090

Average speed (mph) . . . . . 38 38 35 39 38
238 ● Changes in the Future Use and Characteristics of the Automobile Transportation System

large transportation improvements per dollar.

However, by 2000, the growth in urban highway travel will provide more opportunities to

employ this strategy.

It is expected that the condition of highways

in the Increased Mobility Case will be as good

or better than in the Base Case. Although the

same amount of maintenance funds will have to

be spread over more lane-miles, the construction program would allow the replacement of

many badly deteriorated roads, which have

high maintenance costs per mile.

The revenue sources for highway funding

have not been estimated for the Increased

Mobility Case as they were for the Base Case.

However, the assumption has been made that

the fleet fuel cost per vehicle-mile would be held

constant .20

‘(’The fuel economy standard is expected to remain at 27,5 mpg

between 1985 and 2000 as in the Base Case. Diesel penetration of

the new car market is expected to be 10 percent by 1985 and 25 percent by 2000.

Transit

To assure balanced improvements in mobility

for all segments of the population, this set of

policies provides increased funding for rail and

bus transit systems above Base Case levels. An

important feature is a major increase in the level

of Federal operating assistance for transit systems to lower what would otherwise be a heavy

burden on State and local governments. A portion of this subsidy would be used for special

services for the handicapped and elderly.

The funds made available to transit under this

financial assistance program are shown in table

101. The Federal capital funds to provide increased rail and bus service would almost double between 1975 and 1985 and then remain at

the 1985 level until 2000. This constitutes more

than twice the increase assumed for the Base

Case.

The biggest change, however, is in operating

assistance. With Federal operating funds in 2000

Photo Credit Sydec
being 5 times greater than in the Base Case, the

State and local operating subsidy would be cut

from $4.47 billion to $2.12 billion. The amount

of transit service provided by these funds would

be 15 to 20 percent higher than the Base Case in

2000, and 65 to 80 percent higher than in 1975.2]

(See table 102. )

Despite the new transit service which would

be provided and the TSM improvements which

would improve bus speeds and reliability, overall transit ridership would increase only slightly

above Base Case levels. (See table 103. ) This is

because TSM improvements will also benefit

auto travel. The added and improved highway

capacity will enable the auto to remain relatively more attractive than transit for many travelers. In the Improved Environment Case, a similar program for conventional transit is proCh. 8—Mobility Issues, Policies, and Findings ● 239

vialed, but with auto disincentives. The result is

8.7 billion riders in 2000 compared to 6.8 in the

Increased Mobility Case.

The $500-million special services program

would be effective in improving the mobility of

the handicapped and elderly. It would serve a

projected 333 million riders per year by 1985, in

addition to the 530 million rides by the handicapped and elderly on conventional services. 22

The poor, the young, and other nondrivers

would benefit more from the expansion of conventional services. Although the number of

poor in the population would be decreasing,

their ridership would increase somewhat. Ridership by those under 18 would increase from the

1970 level at about the same rate as their growth

in the total population. These estimates are

summarized in table 103.

Table 101 .—Transit Financing Assumptions, Increased Mobility Case

(millions, 1975 dollars)

—

Actual Base Case In-creased Mobility

— .

1975 1985 2000 1985 2000 .

Federal assistance

Capital a. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $1,210 $1,710 $1,710 $2,360 $2,360

Operating —convention al

service . . . . . . . . . . 300 930 930 1,610 4,420

Operating —special service 70 70 70 400 400

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $1,580 $2,710 $2,710 $4,370 $7,180

State/local share

Capital h. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $ 300 $ 430 $ 43 0 $ 59 0 $ 59 0

Operating— conventional

service . . . . . . . . . . 1,410 2,270 4,470 1,780 2,120

Operating—special service — — — 100 100 .

Total C . . ... . . . . . . . $1,710 $2,700 $4,900 $2,470 $2,810 “

——.—— . — —

Table 102.—Transit Service Levels, Increased Mobility Case

— —

Actual Base Case Increased Mobility

1975 1985 2000 1985 2000

Fixed guideway miles.: . . . 560 650 860 680 990

Rail cars . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10,800 11,700 15,700 12,200 18,200

Buses . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51,500 60,200 75,400 63,100 89,300

Transit vehicle-miles

(millions) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,990 2,320 2,950 2,430 3,480
240 • Changes in the Future Use and Characteristics of the Automobile Transportation System

Table 103.—Projected Annual Transit Ridership, Increased Mobility Case

(millions)

Actual Base Case Increased Mobility

1975 1985 2000 1985 2000

Conventional transit

Elderly and handicapped

(not poor) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 440 520 560 530 580

Poor (over 17, not elderly,

not handicapped) . . . . . . . 820 1,040 1,170 1,040 1,170

Total younga. . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,390 1,360 1,520 1,390 1,570

All transit dependent . . . . . 2,650 2,920 3,250 2,960 3,320

Other riders . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,280 3,560 3,230 3,610 3,480

Total conventional

ridership. . . . . . . . . . 5,930b

6,480 6,480 6,570 6,800

Services for elderly and

handicapped

Conventional transit. . . . . . 440 520 560 530 580

Special services . . . . . . . . . 40 40 40 330 330

Total service . . . . . . . . 480 560 600 860 910

aExcludes school bus riders.

bRldershlp In 1975 was 56 billion

SOURCE Adapted from Sydec/EEA, pp S-54, S.55, and VI-35 to VI-38

Other Mobility Effects that Base Case trends would be followed. The

excise tax on fuel-inefficient automobiles would

The improvements in the quality of the high- tend to deter sales of large cars and to exert such

way system in the Increased Mobility Case are a strong influence on size class shares that, by

expected to cause auto VMT to rise by about 4 1985, 90 percent of new car sales would be small

percent over the Base Case level in 2000. A cars. Standard-size cars would all but disapdetailed analysis was not carried out on auto pear. These projections are summarized in table

ownership and new car sales, but it is assumed 104.

Table 104.—Auto Ownership and Other Impacts of Increased Mobility Policies

Actual Base Casea

Increased Mobility

1975 1985 2000 1985 2000

Annual new car sales

(millions) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.6b

13.1 16.4 13.1 16.4

Percent of small carsc. . . 46 69 69 90 90

Percent of diesels. . . . . . (d) 10 25 10 25

Total auto registrations

(millions) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 107 131 164 131 164

Total autos in operation

(millions) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 95 118 148 118 148

Autos per licensed driver. . .73 .78 .84 .78 .84

VMT (trillion) . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.03 1.43 1.80 1.45 1.87

Average travel speed (mph)

All highways . . . . . . . . . . 38 38 35 39 38

Urban areas . . . . . . . . . . . 33 33 30 34 33
Ch. 8—Mobility Issues, Policies, and Findings ● 241

As part of

ity, a safety

the program of improving mobilpolicy of increased vehicle crashworthiness was included to lower auto-occupant

fatalities and injuries. It is estimated that the effect of this policy would be 6,000 fewer autooccupant fatal i ties by 2000. 2 3

Impacts

The policy of expanding and improving the

Nation’s highway system inhibits achievement

of energy and environmental benefits. Assuming the same fuel economy and emission standards and diesel penetration rates as in the Base

Case, Increased Mobility policies lead to 4 percent more petroleum usage by automobiles and

4 percent more emissions of CO, HC, and NOX

in 2000—both increases being directly proportional to the rise in auto VMT. (See tables 105

and 106. )

Noise and water quality impacts are expected

to be similar to those in the Base Case. However, the smaller automobiles in this case would

reduce solid waste and recycling requirements

somewhat, beginning in the 1990’s. Highwayrelated displacements in 2000 are expected to be

more than double those of the Base Case due to

increased highway construction. (See table 107. )

The growth in highway construction would

have an impact on employment. The Increased

Mobility policies are estimated to yield 50 percent more construction jobs than in the Base

Case. The net increase in construction employment in 1985 over 1975 levels would be 17 percent, as annual spending (in 1975 dollars) rises

from $13.2 billion to $18.4 billion. ” Employment impacts in the year 2000 were not computed.

Employment in the auto manufacturing industry is expected to stay close to the levels pro-

“Ibid., p. }’1-31 and [’1-32.

Table 105.—Automobile Energy Demand, Increased Mobility Case

Actual Base Casea

Increased Mobility

1975 1985 2000 1985 2000

Automobile VMT (trillions). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Diesel penetration (percent of new car sales) . . . . . . . . .

New car fuel economy (mpg)

Regulation—EPA certification value . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Attained—EPA certification value . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Attained—actual driving . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Fleet fuel economy (mpg)

Attained—EPA certification value . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Attained—actual driving . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Annual auto fuel consumption

Billions of gallons . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

MMBD equivalent . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Percent of domestic consumption . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

1.03 1.43

(b) 10

none 27.5

15.6 28.5

14.0 23.2

15.1 24.0

13.6 19.4

76.0 73.9

5.0 4.8

30.6 23.9

1.80 1.45

25 10

27.5 27.5

29.4 28.5

25.0 23.2

28.5 23.9

24.6 19.4

73.3 74.9

4.8 4.9

21.4 24.3

Table 106.—Air Quality Impacts of Increased Mobility Policiesa

(million tons per year)

1.87

25

27.5

29.4

25.0

28.5

24.6

76.2

5.0

22.1
242 ● Changes in the Future Use and Characteristics of the Automobile Transportation System

Table 107.—Average Annual Displacements Due to Highway Construction,

Increased Mobility Case

Actual Base Case Increased Mobility

1971-75 1985 2000 1985 2000

Residential units. . . . . . . . . 10,800 5,500 4,300 7,700 9,700

Businesses . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,500 1,800 1,600 2,400 3,700

Farms . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 200 200 160 220 370

Nonprofit organizations. . . 100 80 70 100 170

SOURCE Sydec EEA p VI 34

jected for the Base Case. Although the same

number of cars would be sold, the mix would

change to an even higher proportion of small

cars. This would affect auto suppliers (e. g., steel

manufacturers) more than the auto industry

itself. Service stations and the repair and

maintenance industry would benefit from the increasing VMT between now and 2000.

The impact of vehicle crashworthiness standards on automobile prices has not been estimated. However, it is anticipated that one result

of improved automobile safety would be to

lower insurance costs in 2000 by about 10 percent compared to the Base Case projections. 25

ANALYSIS OF IMPROVED ACCESSIBILITY POLICIES

Increased interaction among the members of

society does not necessarily mean expanding the

personal transportation system. The Improved

Accessibility Case was constructed to test the

hypothesis that economic, social, and cultural

activities can be carried out satisfactorily

without relying as heavily on the movement of

people by private automobile and public transit.

The critical assumption is that the Federal

Government would be able to influence land use

planning at the local level and thereby promote

a long-term change from low-density, scattered

development patterns to more concentrated and

self-sufficient “high accessibility” dwelling and

business complexes. This would require a basic

change in the Federal policy on urban development. Eligibility for Federal assistance in land

development would be determined by criteria

such as reduced energy consumption, conservation of natural resources, and lower travel time

or costs. 26

The role of the Federal Government would be

to ensure that appropriate goals are set and to

focus on criteria for measuring attainment of

these goals, The Federal Government would not

make local land use and transportation decisions. Instead, it would evaluate the performance of local agencies in reaching the objectives

they set for themselves. Although it appears

that such a program would not require any new

powers at the Federal level, it is assumed that if

such powers were required, they would be

sought and obtained.

Many existing Federal programs have an influence on urban development patterns: housing, highways, mass transportation, schools,

water supply, waste treatment, and economic

development, to name a few, It is assumed that

there would be closer coordination of these programs and that all programs would be made

consistent with a common set of Federal policy

goals.

The intent of this policy is to coordinate community development programs as a way of

channeling metropolitan growth into areas most

suited for development. This redirection of new

development could begin on a modest scale

within the next 10 years, and by 1990 half of all

new development could be shaped into highaccessibility areas with the following characteristics:

• Land development would be completely

contiguous, as contrasted with current suburban and exurban patterns where leapfrog
Ch. 8—Mobility Issues, Policies, and Findings ● 243

development typically results in 40 to 80

percent of the land being left undeveloped.

Balanced communities would be created

with well-defined multipurpose centers at

their cores.

Housing would be closely integrated with

the multipurpose centers to facilitate walking from residences to most activities.

Transit service would link the parts of the

high-accessibility community to the multipurpose center.

High-accessibility communities would be

directly linked by high-speed bus or rail

transit to the metropolitan central business

district (CBD) and to other nearby centers.

Jobs and the resident labor force within

each high-accessibility community would

be in approximate balance. This would

minimize the need for long distance commuting except for work trips to the CBD,

which would be made largely by transit.

Each high-accessibility community would

provide a variety of dwelling units to serve

the housing market. Incentives in the form

of amenities to achieve clustering, open

space, and somewhat higher densities

would be included.

Pedestrian and bicycle facilities would link

neighborhoods with convenience centers,

schools, and community facilities. This

would maximize both the mobility of nondrivers and the opportunity for nonvehicular travel for trips within the communit y.

Population density would average about

10,000 persons per square mile, roughly the

present density of central cities such as

Washington,D.C.

Effects

The effects of these policies would not emerge

fully until well into the next century. By 2000,

most of today’s infrastructure would still be in

place, but pockets of high-accessibility communities would have begun to appear—either as

new developments or evolutionary replacements of present communities.

It might take 10 years or more to inaugurate

such a program. It is anticipated that local opposition (and possibly court tests) would persist

for some time, particularly in areas where State

and local statutes conflict with Federal policy.

Because no specific time frame for these factors

can be foreseen, the 1985 and 2000 time points

are only rough indicators of the pace of change

envisioned.

Highways

The highway program in this set of policies is

designed to concentrate on maintenance needs

and to provide some support for new construction, mostly within the new high-accessibility

areas. Typical facilities would include local and

collector streets as well as arterial connections

to regional freeways. Pedestrian and bicycle

grade-crossings would be largely eliminated.

Capital and maintenance funding for highways

would be equivalent to Base Case levels, but

with the addition of $200 million per year for

TSM projects. These would include ramp metering, traffic surveillance systems, bus and carpool lanes, auto-free zones, transit malls, and

traffic relief in neighborhood and community

activity centers.

Vehicle miles of auto travel would grow to

1.76 trillion in this case, slightly less than the

1.80 trillion forecast for the Base Case. (For

comparison, VMT in 1975 was 1.03 trillion. )

This lower level of VMT would occur because

VMT per capita in high-accessibility areas

would be approximately two-thirds that of

typical suburban areas today. 27 This effect

would become more pronounced nationally

1ater in the 21st century. Although the average

auto trip length would continue to grow-10.1

miles in 2000 compared to 8.9 miles in 1975—it

would still be somewhat less than the Base Case

value of 10.3 .28 Most of this difference would be

due to reduction or elimination of short auto

trips within communities. Urban travel speeds

would decline in this case, but not as much as in

the Base Case.
244 ● Changes in the Future Use and Characteristics of the Automobile Transportation System

Photo Credtt U S Department of Houstng & Urban Development

Phofo Cred/t U S Deparfmenf 01 Transportallon
Transit

The transit program in the Improved Accessibility Case emphasizes expanded service, particularly community-oriented transit and use of

small buses. As shown in tables 108 and 109, expenditure for capital improvements would be

the same as in the Base Case. However, slightly

reduced emphasis on rail systems would lead to

a bus fleet 43 percent larger than in the Base

Case by 2000. Transit VMT would be 10 percent

higher than in the Base Case. Small buses would

make up approximately 5 percent of the fleet in

1985 and 10 percent in 2000. The communityoriented, small-bus services would differ somewhat from the “special services” described in the

Increased Mobility Case since they would be

Ch. 8—Mobility Issues, Policies, and Findings ●

part of regular transit operations serving

types of riders.

State and local support for transit would

245

all

be

greater than in 1975, but considerably below the

Base Case levels. Compared to the Increased

Mobility Case, total State and local contributions under Improved Accessibility policies

would be 20 percent lower in 1985 and about

equal in 2000. After 2000, higher operating subsidies would probably be required to offset

deficits for extensive bus service,

Under Improved Accessibility policies, transit

ridership would be strongly encouraged, and

new highway capacity would not be provided

for automobiles as in the Increased Mobility

Table 108.—Transit Financing Assumptions, Improved Accessibility Case

(millions, 1975 dollars)

Improved

Actual Base Case Accessibility

1975 1985 2000 1985 2000

Federal assistance

Capital a

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $1,210 $1,710 $1,710 $1,710 $1,710

Operating —conventional

service . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 300 930 930 2,010 4,820

Operating—special service 70 70 70 70 70

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $1,580 $2,710 $2,710 $3,790 $6,600

State/local/share

Capital b

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $ 300 $ 430 $ 430 $ 430 $ 430

Operating —conventional

service . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,410 2,270 4,470 1,550 2,440

Operating—special service — — — —

Total C . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $1,710 $2,700 $4,900 – $1,980 $2,870

Table 109.—Transit Service Levels, Improved Accessibility Case

Improved

Actual Base Case Accessibility

1975 1985 2000 1985 2000

Fixed guideway miles. . . . . 560 650 860 640 790

Rail cars . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10,800 11,700 15,700 11,500 14,400

Buses . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51,500 60,200 75,400 68,000 108,000

Small buses . . . . . . . . . . . — — — 3,500 10,700

Transit vehicle-miles

(millions) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,990 2,320 2,950 2,040 3,240

SOURCE Sydec, EEA, p Vll 32
246 ● Changes in the Future Use and Characteristics of the Automobile Transportation System

Case. Between 1975 and 2000, transit ridership

would rise 35 percent, higher than in either the

Base Case or the Increased Mobility Case. (See

table 110. ) The handicapped and elderly, who

would be able to reach many destinations on

foot within high-accessibility areas, would use

transit only slightly more than in the Base Case.

Other Mobility Effects

Close to 10 percent of the population could

live in high-accessibility areas by 2000. It is

estimated that almost half of the nonwork trips

in such areas might be made by walking or transit. 29 In the 1970 Census, it was determined that

7.4 percent of all work trips were by walking.30

In balanced communities, this percentage would

reach as high as 15 percent. 31

By 2000, total automobile VMT would be 2

percent lower than in the Base Case. In urban

areas, VMT would be 4 percent lower. New car

sales and total auto registrations would also be

lower. Because of the “gas guzzler” tax assumed

~v@&c WA, P. V11-10.

J~u S Departmen . . t of c~rnrnerce, Bureau Of the census, )Our’ney

to Work 2970 Census o,f PopukJt~o)z, PC(2)-6D, January 1974.

‘lSydec EEA, pp. VII-34 and VII-35.

for this case, automobiles would be smaller and

more fuel-efficient. The general effects of Improved Accessibility policies on automobile

travel are summarized in table 111.

Greater crashworthiness for automobiles is

assumed, with improved front-end design to

reduce pedestrian and cyclist injury. Safety

would also be enhanced by the pedestrian and

bicycle facilities built in high-accessibility areas.

Quantitative estimates of the combined effect of

these safety features have not been made. In

general, however, reductions in fatalities and injuries can be expected by 1985. More significant

reductions should occur by 2000 when the entire

auto fleet would be equipped with improved

safety features, and when auto-free zones and

pedestrian facilities have become more prevalent,

Impacts

The Improved Mobility Case yields greater

energy and environmental benefits than the

Base Case. The factors leading to these improvements are stricter fuel economy and emisTable 110.— Projected Annual Transit Ridership, Improved Accessibility Case

(millions)

Improved

Actual Base Case Accessibility

1970 1985 2000 1985 2000

Conventional transit

Elderly and handicapped

(not poor) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 440 520 560 540 600

Poor (over 17, not elderly,

not handicapped) . . . . . . . 820 1,040 1,170 1,090 1,280

Total younga. . . . . . . . . . . 1,390 1,360 1,520 1,490 1,860

All transit dependent . . . . . 2,650 2,920 3,250 3,120 3,740

Other riders . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,280 3,560 3,230 3,740 3,860

Total conventional

ridership. . . . . . . . . . 5,930b

6,480 6,480 6,860 7,600

Services for elderly and

handicapped

Conventional transit. . . . . . 440 520 560 540 600

Special services . . . . . . . . . 40 40 40 50 50

Total service . . . . . . . . 480 560 600 590 650

aExclude$ school bus riders

bRldershlp In 1975 was56 bllllon

SOURCE Adapted from Sydec/EEA, pp S-54, S-55, VII.31, and VII.50
Ch. 8—Mobility Issues, Policies, and Findings • 247

sion standards and the relatively greater emphasis on public transit as opposed to highways,

As shown in table 112, fleet fuel economy is expected to rise to 28.4 mpg by 2000, compared to

24.6 mpg in the Base Case. Greater fuel economy, combined with a 3-percent decrease in

VMT, is expected to reduce automobile petroleum consumption in 2000 by 20 percent, compared to the Base Case. J

’ (See table 112. ) The

58.7 billion gallons of gasoline used annually by

automobiles would be 23 percent less than the

76.0 billion gallons consumed in 1975, It is also

significant that petroleum consumption by

automobiles would then account for only 18

percent of domestic consumption, down from

31 percent in 1975. As this would be a contribution to petroleum conservation, the question

could then arise whether an acceleration of the

trend toward high-accessibility communities

might not be in the national interest as a means

to reduce further our dependence on foreign oil.

The decreased automobile VMT under Im- — -

“Electric vehicles would account tor about s percent (lf auto

VMT by 2000 in this case. Their energy requirements are not lnCI Llded

Table 111 .—Auto Ownership and Other

Actual

proved Accessibility policies, combined with

the stricter NOX standard of 0.4 gram per mile

that has been assumed for this case, is expected

to yield further improvements in air quality

over the Base Case in 1985 and 2000. (See table

113. ) Projections beyond 2000 have not been

made, but it is expected that the environmental

benefits of high-accessibility communities

would mount steadily as this pattern of land use

becomes more prevalent.

Noise and water quality impacts would be

similar to the Base Case. Because the assumed

level of highway construction is also the same as

for the Base Case, Improved Accessibility policies are expected to have little, if any, impact on

average annual highway-related displacements

of homes and businesses. For the same reason,

employment in highway construction will be

about the same. Due to reduced new car sales,

employment in auto manufacturing, which was

projected to fall slightly in the period 1975-85 in

the Base Case, would fall slightly more as a

result of Improved Accessibility policies. However, the magnitude of this potential decrease is

within the error of the estimating process.

Impacts of Improved Accessibility Policies

Improved

Base Casea Accessibility

1975 1985 2000 1985 2000

Annual new car sales

(millions) . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Percent of small carsc

. . .

Percent of diesels. . . . . .

Total autos in operation

(millions) . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Autos per licensed driver. .

VMT (trillions) . . . . . . . . . . .

VMT per licensed driver . . .

Average highway travel

speeds (mph) . . . . . . . . . . .

Urban areas . . . . . . . . . . .

95

0.73

1.03

7,900

38

33

13.1

69

10

118

0.78

1.43

9,500

38

33

16.4 12.9

69 90

25 10

148 117

0.84 0.77

1.80 1.39

10,200 9,200

35 (e)

30 (e)

15-16

90

(d)

141

0.80

1.76

9,900

(e)

31

aBase Case A as defined In chapter 3

bl 977 new car sales totaled 11 2 mllllon

clncludes subcompact, compact and small luxury cars

‘Inslgniflcant

‘Not estlmaled

SOURCE Sydec/EEA, pp Vll 18 and Vll 26
248 ● Changes in the Future Use and Characteristics of the Automobile Transportation System

Table 112.—Automobile Energy Demand, Improved Accessibility Case

Improved

Actual Base Casea Accessibility

1975 1985 2000 1985 2000

Automobile VMT (trillions). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.03

Diesel penetration (percent of new car sales) . . . . . . . . . (c)

New car fuel economy (mpg)

Regulation— EPA certification value . . . . . . . . . . . . . . none

Attained—EPA certification value . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15.6

Attained—actual driving . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14.0

Fleet fuel economy (mpg)

Attained—EPA certification value . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15.1

Attained—actual driving . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13.6

Annual fleet fuel consumption

Billions of gallons. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 76.0

MMBD. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.0

Percent of domestic consumption . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30.6

1.43

10

27.5

28.5

23.2

24.0

19.4

73.9

4.8

23.9

1.80

25

27.5

29.4

25.0

28.5

24.6

73.3

4.8

21.4

1.39

10

27.5

30.4

24.6

24.3

19.7

70.6

4.6

23.1

1.75b

(c)

40.0

40.0

34.0

33.4

28.4

58.7

3.8

17.8

aBa~e case A as defined (n chapter 3

blncludes 85 bllllon electric vehicle VMT

Clnslgmflcant

SOURCE Adapted from Sydec/EEA

Table 11 3.—Air Quality Impacts of Improved Accessibility Policies

(millions tons per year)

Base Case Increased Mobility

1985 2000 1985 2000

Carbon monoxide . . . . . . . . 32.6 27.3 31.6 25.4

Hydrocarbons . . . . . . . . . . . 3.5 2.9 3.4 2.8

Nitrogen oxides. . . . . . . . . . 2.7 2.9 2.6 2.1

Factors influencing change in 2000

co HC NO.

Base Case projection . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27.30 2.94 2.94

Decreased VMT. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . – 1 .91’ – 0.20 – 0.21

Stricter Nonstandard . . . . . . . . . . . . . . — + 0.09 – 0.65

Improved Accessibility Case. . . . . . . . . . . 25.39 2.83 2.08

SOURCE Sydec/EEA, pp VII.40 to VII.42 and supplementary report.

Photo Credit Ken fucky Department of Hlghways~

Chapter 9.—COST AND CAPITAL ISSUES, POLICIES, AND FINDINGS

Page

Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 251

Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ..........251

Public Funding of Highways. . ................253

Highway Financing Policies. . ..............256

Highway Maintenance. . ...................261

Congestion Cost-Pricing. . .................267

Government-Industry Relations . ..............273

Trends and implications . ..................276

Policy Options . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. ...281

Consumer Costs. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 283

Trends Affecting Personal Transportation

Costs . . . . . . . . . . . ......................283

Policy Options to Control Consumer Costs ...288

LIST OF TABLES

Table No. Page

114.

115.

116.

117.

118.

119.

120.

121.

Size and Distribution of Federal

Appropriations forTransportation, 1955-75..258

Legislation Relating to Highway Financing .258

Advantages and Disadvantages of

Transportation Financing Options . . . . . . . . . 261

Historical and Projected Distribution

of Highway Disbursements. . .............264

Legislation Affecting Automobile System

Characteristics and Use . ................274

Contribution of the Motor Vehicle and

Equipment industry to National Income in

1973 and 1975... . ......................276

Automobile industry Employment, 1976....276

Change in the Distribution of New Car

Sales, 1976-85. . . . ......................277

Page

122. Projected Sales and Economic Data for

the Auto lndustry . ......................277

123. Net lncome and Net lncome as a Percent

of Sales in the U.S.Automobile Industry,

1969-76. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. ....278

124. Market Shares ofU.S. PassengerCar

Manufacturers unselected Years . . . . . . . . . . 280

125. Cost of Owning and Operating an

Automobile-1950-76 . ..................284

126. Estimated Average New Car Costsof

Ownership and Operation Based on Projected

Shifts in Size Classes. . ..................287

127. Costs Per Mile of Owning and Operating

an Automobile in 1976, 1985,and2000. . . . ..288

128. State Regulation of Automobile Repair. ....292

LIST OF FIGURES

Figure No. Page

47. Historical and Projected Distribution of

Total Highway Disbursements . ............265

48. Total Urban Automobile Travel Under

Congested Conditions for1975, 1985,

and 2000 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .268

49. Projected Average Speed in Urban Areas. ...269

50

51

52

53

Scope of U.S. Automotive industry . ........275

Long-Term Debt as a Percent of Equity. ... ..281

Comparative Trends in Selected Components

of Auto Ownership and Operating Costs—

Deflated by the Consumer Price Index .. ....285

Forecasts for Components of Ownership and

Operation Costs of a Standard-Size Auto ....286
The Federal Government provides about $7

billion of the $28 billion spent each year on the

highway system, most of this through the Highway Trust Fund. Federal assistance for mass

transit, which amounts to about $2 billion per

year, is funded from general revenues.

If present trends continue, highway construction will decrease through the year 2000, a nd

the new miles added to the system will fall far

short of the demand created by growing automobile travel. In addition, meeting increased

highway maintenance needs and providing

moderate improvements in transit service will

place a growing burden on State and local governments. A major increase i n Federal assistance

for transit operation and highway maintenance

will be needed to retain the current level of

mobility and protect the investment in the existing highway system.

The automobile industry faces a major challenge in meeting Federal Government mandates

for improved fuel economy, lower emissions,

and greater safety. As a more competitive and

less differentiated market for automobiles is

likely to evolve, the smaller domestic manufacturers will face severe financial difficulties, and

their survival will be threatened.

The cost of automobile ownership and operation (in constant dollars) decreased steadily

from 1960 to 1973. However, the trend has reversed since 1973 —due primarily to increased

fuel prices, higher insurance costs, and increased cost of repairs and maintenance. The

trends to 1985 and 2000 are uncertain, but Federal Government policies and regulations could

be major determinants in future cost changes.

INTRODUCTION

The public and private costs of the automobile transportation system include the direct,

private costs that individuals pay” to own,

operate, and maintain a n automobile and the indirect costs that individuals pay in the form of

taxes to support the system of streets and highways on which automoblies are operated. There

are also social ccsts —borne by automobile users

and nonusers alike —which include air pollutio)n, noise, highway death and injury disruption of communities, negative impacts on the

quality of life, and many more.

As these costs rise, or are perceived to rise,

and as i t becomes necessary to budget limited

financial and material resources to attain an increasing number of social goals, three major

issues could emerge:

1. The distribution of public funds for the

automobile transportation system,

2. The appropriate role of the Federal Government with respect to the automobile

and highway industry, and

3. The private costs of owning and operating

an automobile.

Underlying these issues are fundamental questions about whether the Federal Government

should intervene to affect future automobile

251
252 . Changes in the Future Use and Characteristics of the Automobile Transportation System

system characteristics and use and, if so, for

what purposes, to what extent, and by what

means.

Historically, the Federal Government’s role in

the automobile transportation system has been

limited to providing financial support for developing and maintaining the highway system.

Since 1956, Federal support has totaled approximately $109 billion. Recently, however, the

economic and social costs of developing and

maintaining the highway system have risen and

the awareness of the social costs of the automobile transportation system has grown. Questions have been raised as to whether and how

the Federal Government should extend its involvement and financial support to achieve

other goals related to the personal transportation system. In this assessment, a general examination was made of the process and mechanisms

used to finance the highway system and of the

distribution of the Federal Government’s financial support for highways and other personal

transportation modes.

The automobile has a pervasive impact on the

national economy. It accounts for about onefourth of our petroleum use. Investment in the

federally aided road system has added approximately $26 billion to the gross national product. About one out of every six to eight workers

is employed in an industry related to the automobile. For every 250,000 new car sales lost, it

is claimed that automobile manufacturers lay

off an estimated 21,000 workers and that the

automobile-related industries lay off another

41,000. Thus, policies affecting the automobile

industry have profound consequences for the

economy.

To change the characteristics of the automobile transportation system, the Federal Government has customarily relied on regulations

and performance standards and has left to the

auto industry the tasks of acquiring capital and

developing the technology to comply with Government standards. Recently mandated fueleconomy standards will force manufacturers to

produce a greater proportion of smaller, lightweight automobiles. This will curtail the wide

variety of product sizes characteristic of the

American automobile market and increase the

competition between domestic and foreign

manufacturers.

The smaller domestic manufacturers will have

problems competing in this market and raising

the capital necessary to finance the requirements

for fuel-economy, emissions, and safety standards. Consequently, their economic viability

and the present structure of the industry are

seriously threatened. The interrelationship between the automobile industry and the national

economy raises the issue of whether the Federal

Government should seek to preserve or change

the structure of the automobile industry,

Over 80 percent of all households own one or

more vehicles, each of which is driven an average of 25 miles per day. The direct and indirect

personal costs of owning and operating these

vehicles include the costs of gasoline and oil,

maintenance and repair, motor vehicle taxes,

credit, property damage, lost wages and medical expenses due to accidents, and insurance

premiums. The total cost of private transportation over the last 9 years has increased about 66

percent—5 percent less than the cumulative effect of inflation. However, some components of

automobile cost—repairs, maintenance, and insurance—have increased almost 90 percent,

which is greater than the rate of inflation,

Total automobile-related costs account for an

increasing share of the household budget, since

the number of households owning more than

one car has increased and the number without

cars has declined. In all but the lowest-income

families, automobile-related expenditures rank

as the second or third largest expenditure. Because of the public’s dependence on the automobile transportation system for mobility and

because of the size of the personal financial investment in the automobile, the question arises

as to whether the Federal Government should

intervene to influence the individual cost of

ownership and use.
Ch. 9—Cost and Capital Issues, Policies, and Findings ● 253

PUBLIC FUNDING OF HIGHWAYS

None of the many advances in transportation

made during this century has transformed our

lives as much as automobiles and highways.

The United States is, in fact, a highway-dependent nation. Virtually everyone, drivers and nondrivers alike, is affected. Almost all intercity

and intracity passenger travel is by automobile,

and a major portion of our freight is delivered

on highways, Highways are now a part of our

physical landscape, There are in the United

States today some 3.8 million miles of roads,

approximately 1 mile of roadway for every

square mile of land. The total area covered by

roads and their rights-of-way is estimated to be

about 24,000 square miles, an area equal to the

size of West Virginia. 1

The extent of the highway system is due, in

part, to the emphasis placed on highways by

public transportation funding policy. In 1977,

for example, the Federal Government contributed about $7 billion of the total $28 billion

spent on highways. The cost of the entire Federal-Aid Highway Program for the period beginning with the establishment of the Highway

Trust Fund in 1956 until 1976 amounted to

$109.2 billion. ’

The Federal Government’s investment in

highways is reflected by the size and extent of

the Federal-aid highway system, which constitutes 22 percent of the Nation’s total highway

mileage. The most heavily funded program, the

Interstate System, comprises 42,500 miles of interconnected roads and receives almost half of

all Federal-aid highway funds, approximately

$3.5 billion annually.’ The Federal-Aid Primary

System totals 260,000 miles and receives 18 percent of the Federal highway authorization. 4 The

secondary system of rural collector routes totals

405,000 miles and receives about 5 percent of

the total Federal highway aid. In 1970, a separate urban system—formerly a part of the secondary system—was established. It consists of

about 130,000 miles of arterials and collectors

‘Llbrar}’ CJt L’onSre\s, C(lngrmsl(~nal I<ewarch Scrt’]ce Tl~L’

HIS ii u~~ w Tt I[st FI/~~d TI))IC t(>r ~{ c’/I~/)IgI’ b}’ \\’ A. I.lpt(~rd I<sut’

Br]t’t #77044, hla> 12, 1Q77 p. 4

‘[l S [)(, pClrtnl(>nt ~)[ TrC1n\p{)rt,ltlon, F[,C](,rcll Hl~h\\,a> ,A(]mlnist r<] t ion, A ))1 cr lcti (7)1 t)] (’ ,\l (~ IT(, T/~( Stor w [lf t)l(> F(I(irI [~1 H{,y/IIm/v

P/ [~,yt,/IFI u)I(/ t)), F(vi,)[/1-5t[/t( R(Il[/tI(I)I\)II; I 1 Q77 p 11.

“U .5 C“(>,i(’ tr(ll .23, SW. 103 ( IQ701
254 ● Changes in the Future Use and Characteristics of the Automobile Transportation System

.

●

●

●

and receives approximately 10 percent of Federal funding—$800 million in FY 1978.56

The influence of the Federal Government on

the Nation’s transportation and highway system

is greater than its financial contribution to the

Federal-aid system alone might suggest. Under

the Federal Highway Act of 1966, the Secretary

of Transportation was authorized to develop

standards and criteria for Fedinvestment in

transportation facilities. By making Federal-aid

contingent on State compliance with specified

conditions and regulations, the Federal Government can influence the extent, design, quality,

and use of the road system. Through the financing process and the funding mechanisms used to

channel investments into highways, the Federal

Government can also influence the distribution

of the costs of developing and maintaining the

system. The Federal Government’s influence

over the highway system has grown, and can be

expected to continue to grow in the future, as

the number of specific-purpose programs increases. 7
Ch. 9—Cost and Capital Issues, Policies, and Findings ● 255

In view of the extent of the highway system

and the Federal Government’s role in its development, it is easy to understand how Federal investment in highways has become a major policy issue. This was not always the case, however. In the earliest days of highway building,

the major policy question was how to get the

Federal Government involved in the development of highways. Although the Constitution

provided the authority to establish national

highways, the Federal Government used this authority only reluctantly in response to ad hoc

needs and pressures, some of which were only

tangentially related to transportation.

In the early years of the automobile, the Government was pressed to increase its financial

commitment to roadbuilding to improve personal mobility, to overcome the economic and

social isolation of rural areas, to alleviate the

congested conditions of urban life, and to stimulate the economic development of major parts of

the country. The benefits of highway construction appeared to outweigh the costs. Popular

support for Federal aid to highway development

culminated in 1956 with the passage of the

Highway Act and the Highway Revenue Act.

The highway legislation of 1956 significantly

increased the Federal Government’s Financial

contribution to the highway program, but the

funding soon fell far short of requirements. The

costs of constructing the Interstate System were

severely underestimated, and the projected receipts from the highway user taxes were overestimated. Within 2 years after passage of the

law, it was clear that additional measures were

required to meet rising costs.

During the next two decades, the gap between

tax receipts and highway expenditures was

closed by increasing the rate of taxation and by

extending the life of the program. Thus, in

economic terms alone, the Interstate System

developed into a very different program from

the one Congress originally anticipated. What

had been projected to be a highway system constructed over a period of 15 years at a cost of

$27 billion became a $184 billion highway program spanning a period of 35 years. 8

There was also a growing disillusionment

with some of the purported benefits of highway

construction. Highway building did not, for example, reduce congestion on city streets, as the

sponsors had predicted. By the late 1960’s, there

was mounting evidence that the expansion of

highway facilities had increased highway use

without solving the problem of congestion.

New social and environmental concerns

added to the dissatisfaction with the highway

program. The automobile’s contribution to air

pollution was not fully understood in 1956. Q

Ten years later, however, as the connection between air quality and automobile use was established, environmentalists joined the growing

ranks of those disenchanted with highways.

While recent economic, social, and environmental developments have contributed to a

reconsideration of our national highway policy,

nothing has dramatized the issues as much as

the battle over the segments of the Interstate

System in urban areas. Highway opponents,

concerned about social and environmental impacts of highway building on urban life, began

to protest new highway construction in the late

1960’s. In their eyes, the extension of highways

into urban areas has caused a series of social iIls

that threaten the viability of city life.

More and more people began to question the

Federal Government’s policy of what appeared

to them to be unlimited support for highway

construction. By 1970, i t was almost impossible

to get a major highway program approved in

most large American cities. 10 Highway opponents gained the ears of policy makers during the

1973-74 oil embargo, when it suddenly became

apparent that the world could be shifting from

an era of relative abundance of energy to one of

relative scarcity.

As the Interstate System nears completion, a

reevaluation of the Federal-Aid Highway Program may be in order. While the legislators of

1956 were concerned with how to provide funds

to stimulate highway construction, those of today are concerned with how to use the Federal

Government’s resources to devise a balanced

transportation program reflecting all of society’s

needs. Several policies to make more efficient

and equitable use of the Federal Government’s
256 ● Changes in the Future Use and Characteristics of the Automobile Transportation System

resources have been proposed. Three of these

are examined in this assessment: highway financing, highway maintenance, and road pricing.

Highway Financing Policies

For the purpose of this analysis, the question

of highway financing can be divided into four

major policy options:

1. A policy to continue the Highway Trust

Fund in its present form to serve as the

primary mechanism by which highways

are financed,

2. A policy to finance all Federal transportation expenditures from one general trust

fund,

3. A policy to establish separate trust funds

for each transportation mode, and

4. A policy to finance highways, as well as

all transportation expenditures, from general revenues.

Legislative History

The debate over highway financing has been

somewhat confused because, in the eyes of

many people, the Highway Trust Fund is the

symbol, if not the equivalent, of the Federal-Aid

Highway Program. Highway supporters and

opponents alike tend to view the Highway Trust

Fund as the key factor determining the nature

and the extent of the highway system. Therefore, it is not surprising that the highway debate

is often focused on the Highway Trust Fund.

The trends and developments that have given

rise to a reconsideration of our highway construction program have also provoked criticism

of the mechanism used to finance it.

Approximately 90 percent of all Federal highway-related expenditures are financed from the

Highway Trust Fund which was established by

the Highway Revenue Act of 1956, a companion

to the Highway Act of 1956.11 The Highway

Revenue Act was designed to encourage the con-

‘ ‘Although the Fecieral-Aici Highway Program and the Highway

Trust Fund have come to be identiiled over the years, their separat ]cln t~a+ de] Iberately maintained in the legislation, The Act was

dli’]ded into tw’~~ distinct titlm the I]rst dealing with the Highwa}’

I’rcl~ram and the sec{)nd wr]th the t]nanctng mechanism. Thl> di\’i-

~l~)n <)t the le~i~la tit)n mean~ that, even It tht’ Highway Tru>t Fund

were to bc> e]] m in~ ted, the’ Federal-Ald Hlghw’ay I’rogram WC)UICI

n[)t have t (~ be restructured.

struction of the highway system and, in particular, the Interstate System. The Highway

Revenue Act increased the Federal Government’s contribution to highway construction

and established a funding mechanism for the

Federal-Aid Highway Program. In addition to

fixing the Federal share for interstate construction at 90 percent, the Revenue Act raised the

number of Federal user taxes and created a

Highway Trust Fund into which all these revenues were channeled to be made available for

highway expenditures without additional authorization. 12

The Highway Revenue Act of 1956 was less

revolutionary than has often been assumed. The

Federal Government had granted contract authority to the States since 1922. What the 1956

Act changed, however, was the source of the

funds to meet these contract obligations. Before

the establishment of the Fund, highway expenditures were appropriated from general treasury

funds. With the exception of the Highway Trust

Fund, the system of highway financing established in 1922 remains in effect today. ’3

Although the Federal disbursements for highway construction increased substantially after

1956, there remained a large gap between the

projected cost of the highway system and the

funds available. In fact, the history of the Federal-Aid Highway Program in the years after 1956

has been characterized by a search for ways to

close the gap between increasing costs and insufficient revenues. 14-15

“1-l. S Congre\<, Congressic)nal Budget Otfice, Higlluu,v

Ajs]~t~~)?c[’ Pr[lgru})/s pp. 14-18.

‘ ‘The Highway Tru\t Fund IS Iindnced trom user taxe>, twoth]rci~ (lt which are cieri~!eci t rom the 4 cent~ per ~allorl tax on ~awIine. (The <Irlginal 3 cents per gallc)n tax wa+ increased In Octc)ber

IQcW, ) ThL>r(~ dre a]sc~ t~xcs (~t 6 cents per gallon on m(~t(~r 011, 1 0

cents per pf)und on highwd}r vehlcie t]res and inner tubes, dnd 5

cents pm p[)und on ret reaci rubber. There is an annual u~e tax t>n

hcdvy truck~ dnd buw’~ ( over 26,000 pounds I (>I 3 cents per 1,000

p~~unds [~t ~r~~~~ vehicle w’eight, The 10-percent tax {)n the manufacturer \ sale price ~)t nem truck~, bu~e~, anci trailers, and the 8-

percent tax on truck anci bus parts anci dcce~sories also go Into the

Highway Trust Fund.

“Only 2 years dfter the passdge of the Highway Act, the Bureab

L)I l’uh]ic R(~ad\ reestimateci the total cost ot the Interstate Highwdy System tlt $44 bi ] ] i [)n, dn increase [)f $14 bil I ion over the

(Jrlgind I pro]ect ]C)n. T() meet this clef ICI t, Congress tempera ri Iv \uspended the “pdy as y[~u go” provlslon in 1958 and lncreaseci the

gasoilne tax from 3 cents to 4 cent~ a gallon, Costs f[)r th(~ ]n -

terstate Sy\tem continued t<) grow, torcing Congress to increase lt~

authorizations in 1965, 1966, 1 Q68, 1970, and 1973. 1n IQ75, the

(~t t tcta ] c t>~t mt t ma te w,as inc re~>eci agal n, t his t i me tc~ $89 bl 11 i (In,

“rhe C(lmptr(lller General mdde an estimate in the same year and

pred]cteci that the t<)tal system might cost between !31 I I and $18 4

Inilllon.
Ch 9—Cost and Capital Issues, Policies, and Findings ● 257

The extent to which the Highway Revenuei

Act generated funds for highway construction

can be seen by looking at how Federal aid for

transport at i on has been distributed among

modes for the years 1955 to 1975. As can be seen

from table 114, almost two-thirds of all Federal

outlays for transportation were for highways.

Highway programs accounted for 98 percent of

all Federal aid for ground transportation. 16

Before 1956, only 50 percent of all Federal aid

for transportation went to highways. By 1960,

the figure was almost 100 percent. Ten years

after the passage of the 1956 highway legislation, Federal highway assistance had increased

more than 5 times. 17 The readily available funding undoubtedly stimulated the construction of

highways, which was the intent of the law.

Despite the skyrocketing costs of building the

Federal-aid highway system, the Government

did not begin to reevaluate its highway policy

until the late 1960’s. And, even then, this policy

reevaluation was undertaken not so much in

response to the increasing financial cost of the

system as to the growing appreciation of some

of the social costs involved in highway construction.

Ironically, while attributing many of our

social problems to highway construction, some

people have begun to view the Highway Trust

Fund in an entirely new light. Once considered

to be the inexhaustible source of funding responsible for an unbalanced national transportation

policy, the Highway Trust Fund is now viewed

by some as a potential resource for meeting the

Nation’s total transportation needs. Mass transit advocates, urban officials, and transportation planners are calling for increased flexibility

in highway financing and are asking for a share

of the Trust Fund to finance mass transportation

programs.

The move towards greater flexibility in highway financing began in 1968 when Congress
258 ● Changes in the Future Use and Characteristics of the Automobile Transportation System

first provided Federal assistance for public

transportation as a part of highway legislation.

Greater flexibility in highway financing was

also achieved by increasing the number of programs eligible for financial assistance from the

Highway Trust Fund. 18 This trend is apparent in

the summary of major highway legislation

shown in table 115.

Despite the trend towards greater flexibility,

Congress has been unable to agree on a method

“In the late 1%0’s, Congress authorized a ma)or set of highway

beautiticati(>n and satety programs to be iinanced from the Trust

Fund. By 1974, thest’ pr[>grams had proliferated to the point that

Congress had t(> make 55 separate authorizations for highwavrelated program+. These new aut h(>rizations included programs for

ec{~nom ic deve] (Jpmen t growth centers, bridge safety, rail gradecr(wslngs seen ic highways, hazard(>us locations, and removal ot

rc~adslcfe (>bstacies, Nfc>re recently, Congress instituted a program

t(] resurface <~lder ~egments ot the Interstate System. In addition,

wvera I establlshecf programs (e, g , torest highways} have been

transferred t{) the Highway Trust Fund.

of highway financing. Although the 1976 Highway Act extended construction of the Interstate

System to 1990, the Highway Trust Fund was

extended only until 1979. By extending the

Highway Trust Fund temporarily, Congress deferred the decision on its long-term future. In

taking such an action, Congress had no intention of postponing a discussion of the issues involved in highway financing. The conferees explicitly stated that:

The extension of the interstate program through

1990 does not address the question of the source

of funds for construction during that program.

The conferees expect that during the next Congress methods of financing highway construction will be considered. 19

1 ‘U.S. Congress, House, Federal Aid Highway Act, House

Report 94-1017 to Accompany H.R. 8235, 94th Congress, 2d sess.,

Apr. 7, 1976, cited in U.S. C(}ngress, Congressional Budget Office,

Highway Assistance Programs, p. 62,

Table 114.—Size and Distribution of Federal Appropriations for Transportation, 1955-75

(millions of dollars)

Agency or program 1955 1960 1965 1970 1972 1975a

Department of

Transportation

Highway. . . . . . . . . . . . . . $636 $2,978 $4,069 $4,507 $4,923 $5,020

Aviation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 122 508 756 1,223 1,834 2,120

Railroad . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 3 3 17 57 267

Coast Guard. . . . . . . . . . . 190 238 367 588 661 903

Urban mass transit . . . . . 0 0 11 106 327 1,351

Other. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0 0 23 -8 22 6

Offsetting receipts . . . . . 0 0 -20 -16 -19 —

Subtotal . . . . . . . . . . . . 950 3,727 5,209 6,417 7,805 9,667

Other agencies . . . . . . . . . . 342 539 818 715 986 1,153

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $1,292 $4,266 $6,027 $7,168 $8,791 $10,820

Table 115.— Legislation Relating to Highway Financing

Federal Aid Highway Act of 1968 . . . . . Provided Federal assistance to local governments to help finance

parking lots serving carpools and bus patrons.

Highway Act of 1970 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Extended Federal aid for highway transit by permitting the use of

urban highway funds for the development of exclusive bus lanes and

other nonraiI public transportation faciIities.

Highway Act of 1973 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Permitted local governments to substitute mass transportation

projects for unwanted, withdrawn segments of urban interstates.

(Such projects were, however, to be financed from general funds.)

Highway Act of 1976 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Refined and liberalized the provisions of the 1973 Act, making $800

million of Trust Fund monies available for urban systems, to be used

either in highway construction or for mass transit projects.
Policy Options

Continuation of the Highway Trust Fund.—

Supporters of the Highway Trust Fund argue

that it provides an effective, equitable, and efficient mechanism for securing funds and

allocating the costs of highway construction.

Trust fund financing provides a continual

source of funding for, and assurance of, a longterm Federal commitment to the national system

of highways. 20-21 State and local governments

require assurance of a long-term Federal commitment if they are to be induced to invest their

own resources. Trust funds are one way to give

this guarantee, both as to the magnitude of

funding and the length of commitment.

Most supporters of the Highway Trust Fund

resist proposals that would diminish the funds

available for highways. They also oppose the

growing practice of including new programs, regardless of their nature, among those financed

by the Fund. Typical of this position is that of

the Automobile Association of America:

Since 1956 the Highway Trust Fund has been

burdened with the expense of many transportation activities far beyond those envisioned when

the Trust Fund was established. AAA believes

that the Trust Fund should be used only for the

construction and improvement of the Interstate

System and the urban and rural primary arterial

networks. 22

The traditional defense of the Highway Trust

Fund is that the dedication of the user taxes to

highway expenditures makes them legitimate in

the eyes of the public. It is argued that dedicated

user taxes are the most equitable and efficient

method for distributing the costs of highway

construction and highway use. Many economists agree. For example, in testimony before

the Senate Committee on Environment and PubCh. 9—Cost and Capita/ Issues, Policies, and Findings ● 259

lic Works, Alice Rivlin, Director of the Congressional Budget Office, noted:

User charges represent a way of recapturing

from the actual beneficiaries some of the costs to

the general public. Levying user charges promotes economic efficiency because users pay,

directly or indirectly, for the services they

receive. Proper incentives are provided, since

heavier use imposes greater costs on the users,

and at the same time, generates revenues to expand facilities.23

Opponents of the Highway Trust Fund and

the present system of highway financing have

proposed alternative methods and mechanisms.

Their criticisms of the Highway Trust Fund can

best be seen by examining the alternatives they

have advanced.

Financing Highway-Related Expenditures

From General Funds.—Basic to all of the arguments calling for an elimination of the Highway

Trust Fund, is the belief that all Federal programs should compete in the marketplace of

political, economic, and social ideas. It is

argued that, by providing earmarked funding,

the Highway Trust Fund encourages the building of highways at the expense of other transportation modes. ” If transportation facilities

are to be made available to everyone at the

lowest cost to society, the costs and benefits of

using alternative modes in different situations

must be weighed. This would require replacing

the Highway Trust Fund with a more flexible

funding mechanism. ”

Trust fund financing also makes it difficult for

Congress to make transportation decisions in

the light of other societal values. Highway programs, for example, affect energy, environmental, and land development policies. Some

groups feel that as long as highway financing

decisions are made outside the normal budgetary process, they will not reflect total national

needs. 26

The Highway Trust Fund circumvents the

normal congressional budgetary process. Since
260 ● Changes in the Future Use and Characteristics of the Automobile Transportation System

the Highway Trust Fund obtains its revenues

from earmarked taxes, the budgetary authority

for any year depends on the receipts deposited

in the Fund and not on a congressional authorization. Congress, therefore, has almost no way

to assert budgetary control over highway

financing. One way of achieving such control

would be to eliminate the Highway Trust Fund.

The highway programs then would compete

with other transportation programs—as well as

with all other federally aided programs—for the

revenues of the general treasury.

A Transportation Trust Fund.—The imbalance in the present transportation system is

attributed by some, not to the existence of the

Highway Trust Fund, but to the lack of similar

trust funds for other modes.27 They advocate

conversion of the Highway Trust Fund into a

user-financed, general transportation fund, in

part because gasoline taxes are well-established

and because their justification is greater than

ever in view of the Nation’s long-term energy

needs. With the establishment of such a fund,

transportation decisions would no longer be

distorted in favor of highways. Modal decisions

could be based on a comparative, cost-benefit

analysis.

The concept of a transportation trust fund has

some drawbacks, While it might facilitate development of a coordinated, multimodal transportation policy, it could not guarantee a specific

Federal commitment to any particular mode. As

a system of financing, a transportation trust

fund is subject to the same criticism as the

Highway Trust Fund—that is, a trust fund

would be inflexible in the face of changing

societal needs and would be exempt from the

normal congressional process of budgetary control.

28 There is also a question of whether it

would be politically feasible. Various institutions have been erected around every transportation mode at all levels of government—each

with its own distinct organizational needs and

priorities. Because of these institutional barriers, a policy providing for a common transportation fund- might ‘be difficult to

ment. 29

A Trust Fund for Each Mode.—An alternative popular among mass transit advocates is

establishment of individual trust funds for each

transportation mode. The advocates of multiple

trust funds point to the success of the Highway

Trust Fund as the rationale for extending this

approach to other modes. The argument used to

support this proposal is the same as that used to

support the Highway Trust Fund: State and

local governments need assurance of a longterm Federal commitment. Since all modes of

transportation have long-term development and

construction requirements, all should be financed through trust fund mechanisms.

Representative James Howard, Chairman of

the House Public Works Committee and sponsor of legislation designed to bring highway and

mass transit under one authorization but two

separate funds, has argued thus:

Mass transit has been a mess for years, not only

because there has not been a sufficient amount

of money available, but the money was available on a general revenue basis. We will never

get a sensible, forward-looking mass transit program until we get a trust fund for mass transit. 30

The advocates of a mass transit trust fund

believe that the need for assured funding is

greater than the need to make intermodal transportation decisions.

Opponents of individual trust funds believe

that this approach could lead to an inflexible

system of financing. Since each fund would be

financed from earmarked revenues, investment

decisions for one mode would be made without

having compared the costs and benefits of investing in other transportation modes. Establishment of individual trust funds might also

promote creation of new organizations and bureaucracies. In time, these organizations would

develop their own institutional interests in

maintaining the system and could resist change.

One major difference between the proposed

mass transit fund and the Highway Trust Fund

is the source of funding. Since most mass transit

systems are presently operating at a deficit, it is

unlikely that a mass transit fund could be sustained by user taxes.
Ch. 9—Cost and Capital Issues, Policies, and Findings ● 261

The arguments for and against each of the

four policy options are summarized in table 116.

In evaluating these policy options, it is important to remember that the Highway Trust Fund

is not the equivalent of either the highway program or the highway financing process. Even if

the Highway Trust Fund were dissolved, highway user taxes might be maintained, for example, and deposited in the general treasury fund.

As the early history of the highway program

demonstrates, it is not necessary to have a trust

fund in order to link user taxes to highway expenditures. Similarly, long-term authorizations

could be, and have been, made within the context of the congressional budgetary process.

Highway Maintenance

Another issue that could have a significant effect on the future of the highway transportation

system is highway maintenance. Each year, Federal, State, and local governments spend approximately one-fourth of all highway funds to

maintain the 3.3 million miles of national highways. Highway maintenance has traditionally

been the responsibility of State and local governments—a quid pro quo for receiving Federal

aid. As long as the federally aided highway systems were relatively small, the States were able

to fulfill their obligations without undue hardship. In fact, the State governments consistently

Table 11 6.—Advantages and Disadvantages of Transportation Financing Options

Opt ions ‘-Advantages Disadvantages ‘-

Continuation of present policy . . . Continual source of funds. Slow to respond to changing needs.

Long-term commitment. Unsuitable as a framework for

System already in place. comparing costs and benefits.

Relatively equitable distribution Exempt from budgetary control.

of costs. Procedural discrimination against

other modes.

Unified Transportation

Trust Fund . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Continual source of funds.

Long-term commitment to

transportation.

Elimination of procedural

discrimination among modes.

Facilitates the development

of a coordinated, muItimodal

transportation policy.

Separate Trust Funds

for each mode . . . . . . . . Provide equal access to transportation funds for each mode.

Provide assurance of long-term

Federal commitment.

Politically appealing because

costs are least visible.

Financing for general funds. . . . . . Most responsive to changing

needs.

Eliminates procedural disc rimi nation i n competition for

funds.

Suitable framework for comparing

costs and benefits of investing in

al I transportation modes.

Subject to budgetary control.

Unable to provide long-term

financial commitment to a

particular mode.

Slow to respond to changing needs.

Exempt from normal budgetary

process.

Present user taxes insufficient to

finance general transportation

fund.

Institutional costs involved in dismantling present system.

Least flexible system of financing.

Exempt from normal budgetary

process.

Modal decisions would be

independent of other transportation and societal decisions.

Create institutional rigidities.

Would entail transportation

subsidies.

Fails to provide guaranteed

financial commitment.

Politically cost I y.
262 . Changes in the Future Use and Characteristics of the Automobile Transportation System

rejected proposals that might reduce their responsibilities for, and authority over, highway

maintenance activities.

With the growth of the highway system and

the costs of maintaining it, the financial burden

on State and local governments has taken on unforeseen proportions. The costs of maintenance

are likely to increase further in the future, as the

number of vehicle miles traveled rises and as

many of the highways built in the last 20 years

near the end of their service lives. If the present

rate of deterioration continues, the investment

in the national highway system will be significantly depreciated, and the costs of rehabilitation greatly increased. Steps must be taken to

preserve the system if it is to continue providing

the same level of service as today. Thus, the

question is raised as to whether the Federal Government should—even in the face of State opposition—assume part of the burden of maintaining its investment in the Nation’s highways.

Present Policy

The Federal-Aid Highway Program provides

for building, improving, and maintaining highways. These tasks have been divided by law into

the categories of construction and maintenance.

Highway construction includes new construction, reconstruction, and highway betterment.

Betterment, in turn, includes the tasks of resurfacing, restoration, and rehabilitation of roads

or bridge decks as necessary for safe and efficient utilization. 31

Maintenance is usually defined as “the preservation of the entire highway, including surface,

shoulders, roadsides, structures, and any traffic

control devices that are necessary for its safe

and efficient utilization. “32 The ambiguity of the

definition of maintenance has led to varied and

controversial interpretations. In practice, the

term maintenance has come to mean all those

highway-related tasks that do not fit within any

specific construction category .33 While the Federal Government is primarily responsible for financing and setting standards for the construction of the highway system, the States bear sole

responsibility for maintenance.

The States have been responsible for maintenance since the beginning of the Federal-Aid

Highway Program. The Federal Aid Road Act

of 1916 assigned to the States responsibility for

maintaining all roads constructed under the provisions of that Act. The States’ duty to maintain

the federally aided roads was reiterated in 1921,

the last time that the Federal-State division of

labor for highway responsibility was contested.

In the Highway Act of 1921, the Secretary of

Agriculture was authorized to place the highways “in proper condition of maintenance, ”

charging the costs against a State’s allotment

from Federal funds and prohibiting further projects until the Federal Government had been reimbursed for the maintenance expenses. This

rarely invoked clause was amended by the Federal Highway Act of 1950, which provided that

the Federal Highway Administration could,

after 90 days notification, withhold approval of

further Federal-aid projects until the States had

satisfactorily completed maintenance work.

The Federal Highway Administration has

never used its authority to withhold funds. Nor

has it prescribed standards for highway maintenance. s4 Although the Federal Government has

been reluctant to interfere with State jurisdiction over highway maintenance, the existing institutional framework is flexible enough to

allow the Federal Government to assume a more

active role in this area.

Despite increased outlays for highways by all

levels of government in recent years, highways

have been deteriorating 50 percent faster than

they are being restored .35 A review of the factors

underlying this trend will help to illustrate the

magnitude and urgency of the highway maintenance problem.

The accelerated rate of highway deterioration

can be accounted for, in part, by the rate of inflation. Since 1967, State highway maintenance

costs have increased at an annual rate of 7.3 perwc)uld Include such act ivltles as r(~u t]ne patching, bridge painting,

and rem(~val 01 ~n~lw and ice.

‘Ibid , p. 0.

‘rl Ibid.
Ch 9—Cost and Capital Issues, Policies, and Findings ● 263

cent. The largest share of the increase is attributable to rising material and equipment costs.

Despite a twofold increase in annual expenditures for maintenance in the years between 1967

and 1976, the amount of real maintenance purchased—in terms of today’s purchasing power-

—was only 7 percent. 36 This 7-percent increase

in real maintenance expenditures contrasts

sharply with the 41-percent increase in VMT,

the 37-percent increase in the number of cars on

the road, and the 88-percent increase in the

number of trucks on the road.

The development of the Interstate System has

also added to the States’ highway maintenance

burden. Interstate funds could not be used for

reconstruction until 1976 and even then, only on

a very limited basis. States responded to the

favorable 90/10 matching ratio for new highway construction by building new roads instead

Photo Creditf Sydec

of maintaining existing roads.37 Acknowledging

that the States’ responsibility for maintaining

the Interstate System has reached sizable and

unanticipated proportions, the Department of

Transportation, in the 1974 Transportation Report, noted that:

As the Interstate System approaches completion, the costs of maintenance represent an increasingly larger share of State highway expenditures. This expense over the life of the System

is expected to be more than double the States’ initial capital investment in the System. 38
264 ● Changes in the Future Use and Characteristics of the Automobile Transportation System

System. Under the 1956 Highway Act, no vehicle weighing more than 18,000 pounds on a

single axle, 32,000 pounds on a tandem axle, or

having a gross weight of over 73,OOO pounds

could use the Interstate System. When the Federal-Aid Amendment to the Highway Act raised

the limits to 20,000 pounds on a single axle,

34,000 pounds on a tandem axle, and 80,000

pounds gross weight in an effort to save energy,

an estimate was made of the potential maintenance and capital costs involved. Testifying

before Congress, Federal Highway Administrator Tiemann pointed out that size and weight

increases on the order of those proposed would

increase highway maintenance costs by $40

million (adjusted to 1977 dollars) and would increase combined capital and maintenance costs

by $2OO million .39

The combined effects of rising inflation, expansion of the highway system, and the increase

in the size of vehicles authorized to use the

system have contributed to the steady rise of

State expenditures for highway maintenance. In

the years between 1967 and 1976, for example,

State expenditures on highway maintenance and

related operational expenditures tripled from

$1.1 billion to $3.3 billion. Because of these increases in the size of maintenance and other

noncapital highway expenditures, a smaller

share of the total highway disbursements is being devoted to capital improvements. (See

figure 47. )

‘*U.S. Congres+, Senate, Committee on I’ublic Works( Heur[t]gs

OH Truck S/z~Js atId Weights, 93d Cong., 2d sess., Feb. 20, 1974 ,

Part 2, p. 20.

The trend in the distribution of State highway

disbursements is almost identical to that for

total disbursements. State governments have

traditionally provided about 80 percent of all

capital expenditures for highways but, in recent

years, they have been unable to sustain this proportion of investment. The share of State budgets available for capital expenditures has decreased from 71 percent in 1962 to 58 percent in

1974, as the costs of maintenance, administration, law enforcement, and debt service have

increased. Continued decline in the level of

capital improvement will, over time, increase

the rate at which highways deteriorate and

cause the long-range costs of highway maintenance to rise.

Projections under Base Case conditions suggest that these trends will continue. For example, it is assumed in the Base Case that a portion

of the capital expenditures for highways will be

used for the scheduled completion of the Interstate System by 1990. The cumulative capital

expenditures from 1976 to 2000 are projected to

total $257 billion in 1975 dollars. About $ 38

billion of this amount would be required for

completion of the Interstate System. The remainder is assumed to be expended on other

highway systems in proportion to historic patterns. Increasingly more of the expenditures of

the diminishing capital programs for all systems

would be devoted to reconstruction of existing

obsolete pavement and structures. The effect

would be a decline in highway system performance.

Table 11 7.— Historical and Projected Distribution of Highway Disbursements

Total highway State highway

disbursements (percent) disbursements (percent)

1965 1975 1985 2000 1965 1975 1985 “ 2000

Capital . . . . . . . . . . 58 51 38 25 69 61 47 28

Maintenance . . . . . 23 25 32 35 14 16 23 31

Administration . . . 5 7 9 13 5 6 9 13

Law enforcement . 4 7 11 17 7 11 17

Debt service. . . . . . 10 10 10 10 8 10 10 10

SOURCE F/lghway Staff st/cs through 1975, Sydec protections to 2000
.-,

.,

100

90

70

60

40

30

20

10

Figure 47.—Historical and Projected Distribution of Total Highway Disbursements

.

.

.

.

Maintenance

1 I

I 1 1 1 I

1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

I

SOURCE /-1/gliway Stat/sllcs through 1975 Sydec projections to 2000

●
266 ● Changes in the Future Use and Characteristics of the Automobile Transportation System

In the Base Case, maintenance and other noncapital expenditures are assumed to increase 1

percent per year as a proportion of total

expenditures. The increased mileage of interstate and other new highways over the last 20

years will also add to the costs of maintenance

as these roads age. Vehicle miles of travel will

increase more rapidly than the supply of

highways, placing additional demands on the

maintenance budget. Consequently, under Base

Case conditions, maintenance expenditures per

lane-mile are expected to increase from the 1975

levels of $2,627 to $3,180 in 1985 and to $3,936

in 2000 in 1975 dollars.

Policy Options

The following have been identified as policy

options to deal with the problem of highway

maintenance:

●

●

●

●

•

●

●

Improve highway maintenance through

management training, promotion and demonstrations of new ideas, and research and

development.

Establish Federal maintenance standards

and a process of Federal inspection or State

inspections to meet Federal standards.

Divert revenues from an increased user tax

on gasoline to State and local governments

for capital and maintenance expenditures.

Incorporate maintenance as well as capital

programs in the highway planning process.

Increase categorical funding and promote

low-capital expenditures.

Permit the transfer of funds from capital

categories to maintenance activities.

Provide block grants to States—with passthrough provisions for localities to be used

on any reasonable mix of maintenance

work or, alternatively, provide block

grants directly to localities.

The arguments for and against a more active

role for the Federal Government in highway

maintenance have been summarized below to

indicate the range of policy questions that will

have to be addressed.

Arguments in Favor of an Increased Federal

Role in Highway Maintenance.—

●

Given the size of the social and economic

investment in the highway system, the Federal Government should act to preserve

that system.

The highway dollar is under intense pressure from mass transit advocates, environmentalists, planners, and local governments. Matching funds for highway con

struction have become scarce, and States

are reluctant to obligate the recently released impounded funds because of matching requirements. To free sufficient funds

for a fully balanced highway program,

States must be relieved of the entire maintenance burden.

State and local governments need assistance to offset the effects of inflation and the

inability of State user and property taxes to

keep pace with needs.

State legislatures have reduced maintenance expenditures in favor of capital

expenditures to take advantage of Federal

aid available for capital projects.

The present, loosely managed highway

maintenance program would be more effective if it were subjected to standards and inspection requirements in exchange for Federal aid.

Federal aid for maintenance would provide

State and local governments with greater

flexibility in developing a proper mix between maintenance and capital investment.

The 3R program provides evidence that

maintenance projects can be adequately

coordinated and promoted at all levels of

government.

Maintenance of Federal-aid highways is

currently required by States, and the

FHWA is authorized to review the adequacy of State maintenance programs.

Thus, policies providing for an increased

Federal role are compatible with the institutional division of responsibility.
Ch. 9—Cost and Capital Issues, Policies, and Findings ● 267

Arguments Against an Increased Federal Role

in Highway Maintenance. —

Since State and local governments are close

to the problems, only they can provide a

flexible response to diversified local needs.

There is historical precedent for State and

local governments to maintain their own

streets and roads.

Federal aid for maintenance will unnecessarily increase red tape.

Federal aid for highway maintenance will

increase Federal control of accounting procedures, disbursements, and program

mixes.

There are no adequate work-performance

measurements or standards for highway

maintenance.

Maintenance activities are carried out by a

variety of work forces—State and local

forces, private contractors, convict labor—

making standardization almost impossible.

Federal aid to maintenance would divert

funds from the effort to complete the Interstate System.

Unanticipated maintenance work such as

the damage to highways created by storms

or accidents cannot be planned or standardized.

Congestion Cost= Pricing

During the 1950’s and 1960’s, highway congestion was considered the major transportation

problem, and highway construction was the

preferred means of dealing with it. In the 1970’s

however, attitudes changed and highway construction came to be viewed by many as the

cause of serious social problems. The highway

building program was also criticized from the

standpoint of equity. It was argued that the

costs of building and maintaining additional

lanes to deal with congestion are really commuter subsidies, since commuters are not taxed

in proportion to their share of the costs.

As the economic costs of construction continue to escalate and as the social costs of

highway building are reassessed, new strategies

to cope with congestion are being sought. One

such strategy, which aims to provide both increased capacity and a more equitable distribution of the cost of highway mobility, is the

policy of congestion cost-pricing.

Factors and Trends Affecting Congestion

The problem of congestion is not an evenly

distributed one geographically. Congestion has

rarely been a problem in rural areas, except

around major recreational sites. In urban areas,

congestion is most severe during morning and

afternoon hours on roads that serve high- density activity centers. Even within cities, the congested area is usually only a small part of the

metropolitan region (typically less than 10 percent), and periods of congestion usually total

only 4 to 6 hours per day. 40

Given their present low levels of congestion,

rural highways could accommodate future increases in the number of vehicle miles traveled—predicted to be in the range of 60 percent

for all rural highways—without significant

changes in average speeds. In urban areas, however, the picture is quite different. Increased

growth in highway travel projected for the next

25 years will result in more congestion in urban

areas. 41 As figure 48 indicates, this growth will

occur on roads that already carry a large percentage of urban auto travel. Figure 49 indicates

that there will be large speed decreases on these

roads, and their current speed advantages over

other highways will be considerably reduced.

The proportion of urban interstate highway

travel occurring under congested conditions is

projected to increase from about 10 percent in

1975 to about 34 percent in the year 2000. Figure

48 also shows that for “other freeways and expressways” in urban areas, travel under congested conditions is projected to increase from

about 11 percent of VMT per day to 30 percent.

This means that the typical urban motorist in

the year 2000 can expect to encounter stop-andgo traffic on freeways about 3 times as often as

today.
268 ● Changes in the Future Use and Characteristics of the Automobile Transportation System

Figure 48.—Total Urban Automobile Travel Under Congested Conditions for

1975, 1985, and 2000

Interstate

highways

643

r

447

288

340/0

r

180/0

1 00/0

r

1975 1985 2000

Minor

331 I

80/0 1 00/0

564

220/0

Other freeways

and expressways

382 f

262

170

+

300/0

,

180/0 1 10/0

t 1 ●

Collectors

259

150

70/0 1 50/0

50/0 I

Other principal

796

465

L

160/0

606

290/o

21 0/0

a

1985 2000

million miles/day

congested

conditions

1975 1985 2000 1975 1985 2000

SOURCE: Sydec EEA, p, 77
Ch 9—Cost and Capital Issues, Policies,

Figure 49.—Projected Average Speed in Urban Areas

.

.

.

I I I I i

and Findings ● 269

Other freeways

interstate

freeways

Other principal

arterials

Minor arterials

Collectors

Local roads

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

SOURCE SydeclEEA, P III-79 Year

Present Policies

Because urban congestion was not considered

to be a major transportation problem until the

1950’s, Federal highway policy was aimed not at

relieving congestion in the cities, but at connecting isolated rural areas. Provisions for a continuing urban area highway program were first

contained in the Federal Aid Highway Act of

1944. 42 The need to build urban highways was

reaffirmed with the establishment of the Interstate Highway Program, which allocated

9,249 miles to the urban system.

From the beginning, however, there was disagreement as to whether the urban system

should be designed primarily to extend intercity

highways into urban areas or to serve the

specific needs of metropolitan areas.ds At the

heart of the justification for the urban interstate was the argument that the construction
270 ● Changes in the Future Use and Characteristics of the Automobile Transportation System

of additional highways would reduce congestion by allowing a freer flow of traffic and

reducing driving time. This claim was not borne

out by events. Highway building could not keep

pace with the growth in urban traffic, some of

which was induced by the construction of additional highways .44

In the face of increased construction costs and

public opposition to urban freeways, new major

construction was slowed down in the 1970’s.

The Federal Government’s approach to reducing

congestion shifted from capital-intensive investment to strategies designed to make more efficient use of existing facilities and to allow

greater local flexibility in choosing the means to

reduce congestion. Evidence of the Federal Government’s commitment to reducing traffic congestion can be found in the Federal Highway

Code which states:

The Congress hereby finds and declares it to be

in the national interest that each State should

have a continuing program within the designated boundaries of urban areas of the States

designed to reduce traffic congestion and to

facilitate the flow of traffic in the urban area. ”

Federal planning regulations required that

after October 1975, transportation plans should

explicitly deal with short-term as well as longterm strategies and with operational as well as

capital improvements. Subsequently, each metropolitan planning organization was required to

submit a transportation system management

(TSM) plan aimed at bringing about more effective usage of existing transportation capital

stock. One of the options consistent with this

mandate is congestion cost-pricing,

Policy Options

Economists often argue for congestion costpricing as a low-cost solution to the problem of

congestion. In their view, such a policy not only

would lead to optimal resource allocation and

the efficient use of capacity, but also would

cover the full social costs of the resources

used. 46 Drivers would be charged for operating

a vehicle—or, more effectively, for operating a

low-occupancy vehicle—during the peak hours

in highly congested sections of urban areas .47

Efficient use of streets would be achieved,

since the price charged to drivers would link trip

decisions to travel time. During peak hours,

drivers would pay a fee proportionate to what

they contribute to the total congestion on the

highway. The price would be economically efficient if it equaled the social costs that the

motorists imposed minus the actual payments in

the form of other taxes, fees, and their own time

expenditures. 48

One of the arguments in favor of road-pricing

is that it is a flexible strategy whereby prices can

be adjusted in accordance with the levels of improvement desired. Road-pricing also provides

an element of choice. An individual can still

choose to drive, but he does so at a price. Roadpricing is not only an inexpensive method of

discouraging auto travel, but also a means of

generating new revenue that can be used to

develop alternative means of transportation.

Pricing programs can also be combined with

other programs designed to limit the use of

energy, to reduce automobile emissions, or to

encourage the use of alternate means of transportation. 49

Although several methods and mechanisms

have been proposed for administering roadpricing schemes, the most popular is some form

of supplementary licensing. Licensing would be

flexible, comprehensive in its application, relatively easy to enforce, and inexpensive to implement.

Several Federal Government agencies have

been evaluating congestion cost-pricing. A National Science Foundation study recommended

Federal support for a site-specific demonstration

4

‘C~~ngestlon represents a situati<ln in which the sum of all costs

(money, time, discomfort, etc. ) of all veh]cles using a road exceeds

the sum ot the c[~st it each vehicle were to use ]t separately. This

sit uat ton occurs because the level of service decreases (or alternately, the level c]t ct~ngestlon Increases) as each additional vehicle

enters the road. Thus, when a mot orlst enters a road, he imposes a

cost on () t her drivers that exceeds the extra time and discomfort

that he will have to pay to use the raod, It is tor this additional cost

that the mot{>nsts would be charged under a policy ot congestion

ctwt -prlc]ng.

‘hKiran Bhatt, LVl)ut Cut~ IVC D,] A bc>uf Traffic Cot~gesti[]/~ 7 A

Ptici)~g Approuc)I IWashingtt)n, D. C.: The Urban institute, April

19701, p. 15.

4’Ti~m Hlgglns, C[~lli;~ul 111~ St!~lttJgIcs ~ot Nt7LjIicf}7~ ~ra~~lc

l<t’lu(t~(i l’rol]l~ttls ~1[, ~u>t’ ~,)r l<(I(~,i PrICI}~(g (Washlngtonr D, C,:

The Lirb~n Institute, September 197tJ ).
Ch. 9—Cost and Capital Issues, Policies, and Findings ● 271

—

planning project.’” The Office of Service and

Methods Demonstration in the Urban Mass

Transportation Administration (UMTA) has

been actively involved in developing such a

project since 1974. A panel representing several

Government agencies and private concerns, all

interested in mass transportation, energy, and

the environment, has been established to provide advice. 5

1

In the demonstration project, a congested

area of the city will be designated an “area of experiment” during certain hours of heavy travel.

Private automobile drivers, wishing to drive in

this area during peak hours, will be required to

purchase and display a license.5z The Office of

Service and Methods Demonstrations has

adopted criteria for selection and has conducted

a preliminary screening of candidate cities. Preliminary sketch designs will be made in approximately three to five cities, and actual implementation will be carried out in at least

one. 53

In conjunction with FHWA and EPA, UMTA

is evaluating the congestion pricing scheme in

use in Singapore. They are also conducting a

study to determine the potential of parking

policies for reducing the use of low-occupancy

vehicles in congested areas. 54

Effects and Impacts

If the arguments in support of congestion

cost-pricing are valid, why has no local government sought to implement such a program in an

effort to reduce automobile congestion? The reluctance of local officials to institute road- pric-
272 . Changes in the Future Use and Characteristics of the Automobile Transportation System

ing appears to be related to its potential repercussions. Although the economists’ assertion

that congestion cost-pricing will have net social

benefits might be true, such a policy is likely to

have impacts and costs that are not equally

distributed.

Automobile users will be most affected.

Those who continue to drive, in spite of the congestion charges imposed, will pay a fee that

might or might not outweigh the value that they

place on the time saved or the convenience

gained. ss Even if motorists value their time

highly, they are likely to resent the imposition

of congestion fees. Some drivers will be forced

to forego trips in congested areas during peak

hours.

Businessmen and the owners of parking facilities in downtown areas would also be directly

affected by the imposition of congestion charges

although the degree of impact would depend on

other variables, such as the existence and convenience of alternate modes of transportation.

Lacking empirical evidence, it is difficult to

predict exactly how a road-pricing scheme

would affect business in downtown areas. However, what is important to local politicians is the

belief of local businessmen that their interests

would be impaired.

Current transit riders, who have to share

facilities with additional riders, would also be

affected by a policy of congestion cost-pricing.

Some of the burden on public transportation

might be eliminated if there were more room on

highways for high-occupancy vehicles and if

road-pricing revenues were channeled into the

improvement and expansion of alternative

modes of transportation.

Since congestion is not evenly distributed, the

question of how much money the Federal Government should spend to reduce the problem is

also likely to be an issue. If the funding available for all highway-related needs remains more

or less the same, then any money spent on reducing congestion will beat the expense of other

highway-related programs. In this sense, all

those who are not the direct beneficiaries of congestion cost-pricing—rural dwellers and noncommuters, for example—would be negatively

affected, although in a minor way, since the

funding necessary to support such a scheme

would be relatively small.

Any effort to predict the effects and impacts

of a road-pricing policy would be speculative,

since there have been no attempts to implement

such a policy in the United States. To the extent

that the conditions in Singapore are comparable

to those in the United States, some useful

Photo Credit U S Department of Transportatlon
Ch 9—Cost and Capital Issues, Policies, and Findings ● 273

lessons can be drawn from that city’s efforts to

reduce traffic congestion. The World Bank has

monitored the program and made an initial

evaluation, from which the following observations are drawn. 50

In an effort to reduce congested conditions

and to prevent what, on the basis of growth

trends, was predicted to be an extreme level of

congestion, the City of Singapore instituted in

1975 a program of road-pricing designed to

reduce peak-hour traffic by 25 to 30 percent.

The traffic restraint scheme includes parking

fees, area licenses, and a park-and-ride system

to provide motorists with an alternative mode

of transportation. To enter a designated area

where congestion is to be reduced, a driver has

to display a supplementary license that can be

bought in the post office or in other public service areas. Public transportation and other highoccupancy vehicles, including carpools, are

exempt from the licensing requirement. Within

6 months after implementing the program, the

volume of traffic entering the restricted zone

had been reduced by 40 percent.

The Singapore experience was also judged

successful in terms of the ease with which it was

implemented. Although the park-and-ride facilities proved to be unpopular and the price of

licenses may have been set too high initially, the

program was relatively easy to administer and

acceptable to the general public. Enforcement

proved not to be a serious problem. Apart from

the expense of constructing fringe parking facilities and erecting new signs, the cost of the program was approximately $3 million. ”

It is sometimes said that road-pricing schemes

can kill three birds with one

gestion, improve air quality,

consumption. Preliminary

however, that the net effect

stone: reduce conand reduce energy

analysis suggests,

on air quality and

energy consumption would be insignificant.

Since the characteristics of congestion, air pollution, and energy consumption vary, so must the

measures that are applied to deal with them.58

Since congestion pricing is aimed at changing

the time and not the volume of automobile use,

the net value in reducing pollution and energy

consumption is likely to be negligible.59

GOVERNMENT= INDUSTRY RELATIONS

To achieve changes in the characteristics of

the automobile transportation system, the

Federal Government has traditionally relied on

regulations and performance standards, leaving

to the industry the tasks of acquiring capital and

developing the technology to comply. Table 118

lists the major regulatory measures that have

been enacted for automobiles by the Federal

Government in the past 15 years.

With the growing awareness of the problems

related to the automobile and with the increased

cost and technology required to deal with these

problems, the Federal Government has become

more directly involved in financing and conducting research and development of new technologies to meet national goals. Although there

is general agreement that the new development

of technology requires substantial capital and

technical resources, there is strong disagreement

about whether the Federal Government should

intervene in the free market either to stimulate

technological innovation or to preserve or alter

the present structure of the market.

An important factor in the relationship between the Federal Government and the automobile industry is the importance of the industry to

the national economy. The automobile industry’s role in the economy can be seen in figure 50

and table 119, which depict the contribution of

the industry to personal consumption, investment, and the national income. Equally revealing are the employment statistics for the automobile industry and related services and business shown in table 120.

Given the scope of the automobile and autorelated industries, it is clear that policies affecting these industries will affect the national
274 ● Changes in the Future Use and Characteristics of the Automobile Transportation System

Table 118.—Legislation Affecting Automobile System Characteristics and Use

Safety

1963 . . . . . .

1968 . . . . . .

1972 . . . . . .

cost

1956 . . . . . .

1958 . . . . . .

1974 . . . . . .

Energy

1974 . . . . . .

1975 . . . . . .

1976 . . . . . .

Environment

1963 . . . . . .

1965 . . . . . .

1972 . . . . . .

The Roberts Bill, Public Law 88-515. —Required that motor vehicles

purchased by the Federal Government meet safety standards.

National Traffic and Motor Vehicle Safety Act and Amendments

(1970, 1972, 7974), Public Law 89-563,–Established safety standards, with mandatory inspections for motor vehicles i n interstate

commerce.

Motor Vehicle /formation and Cost Savings Act and Amendments

(1974, 1975), Public Law 92-513.–Required manufacturers to

disclose information indicating compliance with the standards set

for bumpers and odometers. Required DOT to publish consumer information on new cars (not yet implemented).

Automobile Dealer Suits Against Manufacturers, Public Law

84-1026. —Enabled franchise automobile dealers to bring suit

against manufacturers for failure to comply with terms of franchises.

Automobile Information Disclosure Act and Amendment (1972),

Public Law 85-506. —Required full disclosure of information in the

distribution of new automobiles.

Magnuson-Moss Warranty —Federal Trade Commission

/improvement Act, Public Law 93-637. — Provided disclosure

standards for consumer product warranties i n regard to used motor

vehicles.

Energy Supply and Environmental Coordination Act, Public Law

93-319. —Authorized a fuel-economy study to be undertaken by the

Department of Transportation (120-day study) to establish a fueleconomy improvement standard.

Energy Policy and Conservation Act, Public Law

94-163. —Established standards for motor vehicle fuel economy

with a goal of 27.5 mpg for 1985.

Electric and Hybrid Vehicle Research, Development, and

Demonstration Act, Public Law 94-413.—Authorized a Federal

program of research and development for electric vehicle

technologies and demonstrate ion of their feasibility.

Clean Air Act and Amendments (1965, 1966, 1967, 1970, 1971, 1973,

1977), Public Law 88-206. —Encouraged greater efforts to develop

devices and fuels that will reduce air pollution from motor vehicles.

Motor Vehicle Air Pollution Control Act, Public Law

89-272. —Required standards for automotive emissions control on

new motor vehicles.

Noise Control Act, Public Law 92-574. —Established noise

regulations for motor carriers engaged in interstate commerce.
Ch. 9—Cost and Capital Issues, Policies, and Findings Ž 275

Figure 50.—Scope of U.S. Automotive Industry

Estimated employment—June 1976

(percent of total nonagricultural payrolls—

average for 1972 to 1976)

-

Manufacturing

1,228,000 (1 .5°0) -—l-----’:~::~:~~~v~d:~g-d

Automobile I I 1 I

Recall auto and I Gasoline I I Automotive

and parts : accessory dealers I service stations ~ I

repair

manufacturers I

1,252,000 695,000 I services

306,000 I

(1 .6°/0) , (0.9% )

I 1 459,000

(1 .0%) I I I (0.6°/0) I

Auto parts Automobile

manufactured and parts

by other wholesalers

Industries 430,000

422,000 (0.500)

(0.500)

Real personal consumption expenditures—

2nd quarter, 1976, in billions of 1972 dollars

(Average percent of constant dollar

Total auto related expenditures on all personal consumption

104.1 (130/0) items 1973-76)

+

Auto-related services (est) 23.5 (2.9°/0)

— Gas and oil 23.4 (2.9°/0)

— Other motor vehicles and parts

13.1 (1.6°/0)

I

-

Total automotive

18.2 (15.80/o)

- - l

Real business fixed investment expenditures

2nd quarter, 1976, in billions of 1972 dollars

(Average percent of constant dollar

expenditures on all business plant

and equipment items)

Autos Trucks and

8.5 buses Total 114.9

(7.40/0) 9.7 (8.40/o)

SOURCE Unpublished report of the A J Kearney, Inc Management Consultants, for the U S Environmental Protection

Agency April 1977 pp II-5 and II-6
276 ● Changes in the Future Use and Characteristics of the Automobile Transportation System

Table 119.—Contribution of the Motor Vehicle and Equipment Industry to National

Income in 1973 and 1975a (billions of 1975 dollars)

1973 1975

All industries (excluding government)

Domestic income . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $898 $1,025

Employee compensation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 633 729

Corporate profitsb . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 99 92

All manufacturing

Income . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Employee compensation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Corporate profitsb 

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Motor vehicles and equipment manufacturing

Income . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Percent of all industries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Percent of manufacturing industries . . . . .

Employee compensation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Percent of all industries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Percent of manufacturing industries . . . . .

Corporate profitsb 

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Percent of all industries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Percent of manufacturing industries . . . . .

284 310

230 251

44 46

Agency, April 1977 pp lL5andlL6

Table 120.—Automobile industry Employment,1976

Industrial sector Employment

Motor vehicle and parts manufacturing 948,000

Auto and parts retail dealers . . . . . . . . . 1,116,000

Auto and parts wholesale dealers . . . . 380,000

Service and garages. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 447,000

Gasoline service stations . . . . . . . . . . . 627,000

Construction of highways and streets. 299,000

Petroleum industries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 397,000

State and local highway departments . 582,000

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4,796,000

SOURCE Transportation Assoclatlon of America, Transportation Facts and

Trends

economy significantly. Projections of the future

of the automobile industry, therefore, will have

an important bearing on the kinds of policies

that the Federal Government might consider.

Trends and Implications

The Base Case contains the following assumptions and projections about automobile technology and the industry’s response to present

policies:

● It is expected that the basic technology will

be available to meet Government standards

●

●

●

●

on fuel economy, emissions, and safety by

1985.

Incorporating this technology will increase

the average price of a new car by about

$5oO (in 1975 dollars).

In order to achieve fuel-economy standards, manufacturers will reduce the size

and weight of automobiles, perhaps by an

average 800 to 1,000 pounds between 1977

and 1981. Further size and weight reductions are expected during the period

1981 -2000.60

The major impact of Government policies

and changes in demand will become evident by 1985. After that, changes will occur

more slowly but in the same direction.

The impact of increased auto prices on sales

will be more than offset by general economic trends and by reductions in the real

cost of automobile ownership and operation. As a result, new car sales are expected

to increase from 10 million in 1976 to 13

million in 1985 and 16.4 million by 2000.
Ch. 9—Cost and Capita/ Issues, Policies, and Findings . 277

New Car Sales and Prices

The implications of these trends for new car

sales and prices are shown in tables 121 and 122.

While new car sales are expected to increase 29

percent overall between 1976 and 1985, the bulk

of this increase will occur in the subcompact,

compact, and small luxury classes. Sales of intermediate and standard cars will fall dramatically, largely as a result of fuel-economy standards. New car prices by size class are predicted

to increase between $470 and $510 by 1985 (in

1975 dollars).

Prices within size classes (excluding the impact of Government standards) are expected to

remain about the same as today. However, if

manufacturers downsize cars without reducing

their price, the prices for the smaller size classes

shown in table 122 might be somewhat understated.

The impact of Base Case projections of automobile sales on employment depends on productivity. If the rate of domestic new car sales

per employee continues to increase by 2.7 percent annually, employment in 1985 will be 2.2

percent less than 1975, a loss of 18,000 jobs.

Lower productivity gains in other motor vehicle

manufacturing activities, a decline in the share

Table 121.– Change in the Distribution of New Car Sales, 1976-85

— — -

Percentage ‘-

Volume (thousands)- -

— —. Percent

1976 1985 1976 1985 change

Subcompact. ... . . . 22 - 30 -- 2,225 3,940 + 77.1

Compact. . . . . . . . . 19 30 1,921 3,940 + 105.1

Small luxury . . . . . . . 5 9 506 1,196 + 136.4

Intermediate. . . . . . . . 29 16 2,831 2,111 – 25.4

Standard . . . . . . . . . . . 20 7 2,022 936 – 53.7

Large luxury . . . . . . . . 6 7 606 936 + 54.4

Totals . . . . . . . . 100 100 10,110 13,058 + 29.2

Table 122.—Projected Sales and Economic Data for the Auto Industry

(1975 dollars)

.

1985

Base All other

New car price by size of class 1976 Case cases

Subcompact . . . . . . . . . . . -

$3,600 ‘- $4,080 $4,080

Compact ., . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4,200 4,710 4,710

Intermediate ... , . . . . . . . . . . 4,600 5,090 5,090

Standard . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5,400 5,890 5,890

SmalI luxury. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5,650 6,130 6,130

Large luxury. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8,800 9,270 9,270

Gross revenue per

domestic car sold . . . . . . . . . . . 4,990 5,220 4,880

Annual domestic sales

(thousands) . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8,610 10,710 10,550

Annual domestic sales

revenue ($ miIlions). . ... , . . $42,950 $55,940 $51,460

Capital investment

($ millions). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $ 3,640

New capital requirements

for fuel-economy standards

(millions, cumulative 1977-85). $7.6 $7.6-$8.0’

Auto manufacturing

employment (domestic) b 

. . . . 808,800 790,800 780,000

-.

aTh P h c ho, cap I tat rf?q u I ~empn Is arr, assoc (at=@ v, I t h h Ig her d lesel penet rat Ion rat Ps I n the Petrol PLI m Con st?rvdt u n CaSP

~E ,,lb I[, ~ ~ p” t f 1~ ~j ~P~ arfz f{, r t hp fcl L, r maj Or rj urnes t I I- man L) f ac t u r~rs aI d n~ I b dP nn I y passpn q e r I- ar and dtl to parts man ~J fdr

t 1) r<,

SOURCE SVO’PC EEA FJII I I I 163 tO Ill 172 anc Supp/ernenldr! Report
278 ● Changes in the Future Use and Characteristics of the Automobile Transportation System

Table 123.—Net income and Net Income as a Percent of Sales in the U.S. Automobile Industry, 1969-76

Net Income ($ millions) Net income as percent of sales

1969 . . . . . .

1970 . . . . . .

1971 . . . . . .

1972 ., . . . .

1973 . . . . . .

1974 . . . . . .

1975 . . . . . .

1976 . . . . . .

$1,710.7

609.1

1,935.7

2,162.8

2,398.0

950.0

1,253.0

2,908.0

Ford

$546.5

515.7

657.0

870.0

906.5

360.9

322.7

993.0

Chrysler

$ 99.0

(7.6)

83.7

220.5

225.4

(52.1)

(259.5)

15.5

Ford

3.8

3.4

4.1

4.4

4.0

1.6

1.4

3.4

Chrysler Total

Pholo Credl! Genera/ Mofors Coro
Ch. 9—Cost and Capital Issues, Policies, and Findings ● 279

of imports, or the movement of foreign firms

into the United States might act to offset some

or all of this decline in employment.

The rate of profit in the automobile manufacturing industry varies considerably from year to

year, depending on the company and the business cycle. Table 123 shows net income and net

income as a percent of sales for the four major

domestic manufacturers for the years 1969 t o

1976. Although record gains in net income were

experienced in 1976, net income as a percentage

of sales was lower than i t had been in several

years. On the whole, however, the industry’s

return on equity and profit margins were comparable to those in other manufacturing industries. General Motor’s profits were significantly higher than those of the other manufacturers, evidence of the relationship between

profits and sales volume.

The significant increases in the rate of growth

in sales improves the outlook for industry profitability. Because it is assumed that the increased costs of Government standards will be

passed on to the consumer in the Form of higher

prices, no reduction in profit levels is expected.

The effect of Government standards and regulations on product mixes could, however, reduce

industry profits.

Although precise data relating the rate of

profit to car class and size are unavailable, all

indications suggest that the smaller the car, the

smaller the profit. A study, conducted in 1976

for the Department of Transportation, estimated that the variable profit margin—the

revenue per car less variable costs—for two

domestic manufacturers was 19 to 23 percent for

compacts and subcompacts, 27 to 32 percent for

Photo Crpdi f Gene ,d Motor< CorLI
280 ● Changes in the Future Use and Characteristics of the Automobile Transportation System

medium-sized cars, and 38 to 40 percent for

large cars.61

The profit rate is highly sensitive to changes

in volume of sales. Meeting Government standards and changing the mix of production will increase fixed costs, which are generally allocated

to new car prices on the basis of anticipated

volume of sales. Volume growth above expectations, therefore, will increase profits; whereas

growth below expectations will cause a significant decline.

Industry Structure

The domestic auto-manufacturing industry

consists of four major producers: General

Motors, Ford, Chrysler, and American Motors.

General Motors accounts for over 50 percent of

domestic sales; GM and Ford account for over

80 percent. The market shares of manufacturers

and their nameplates for the years 1947, 1957,

and 1976 are shown in table 124.

Capital investments to meet Government

standards and to accommodate changes in demand will increase the sales volume necessary

for each firm to realize a profit. If a firm fails to

make the required profit, it would have to rely

on external sources of capital. While Ford and

General Motors are conservatively financed and

Table 124.—Market Shares of U.S. Passenger Car Manufacturers in Selected Years

(percent)

1947 1957 1967 1976

Chevrolet . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19.58 24.90 25.93 23.69

Pontiac . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.27 5.61 11.57 9.24

Oldsmobile . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.39 6.38 7.47 11.36

Buick. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.53 6.66 7.57 9.63

Cadillac . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.63 2.50 2.88 3.68

Total, GM . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40.44 46.05 55.60 57.60

Plymouth . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.86 10.73 8.23 7.75

Dodge. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.52 4.78 6.72 6.45

DeSoto . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.29 1.92 — —

Chrysler . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.04 1.94 3.25 1.50

Imperial . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . — 0.62 0.21 —

Total, Chrysler. . . . . . . . . 21.71 19.99 18.41 15.70

Ford . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16.93 24.89 18.60 17.59

Edsel. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . — 0.89 — —

Mercury . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.51 4.50 3.84 5.12

Lincoln . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.82 0.61 0.46 0.76

Continental . . . . . . . . . . . . . — 0.01 — 0.71

Total, Ford . . . . . . . . . . . . 21.26 30.90 22.90 24.18

Total, Big Three . . . . . .

Hudson. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Nash . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Rambler . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Total, American Motors .

Crosley. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Kaiser- Frazer . . . . . . . . . . . .

Packard . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Studebaker. . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Willys . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

83.41 96.94 96.91 97.48

2.82 0.02 — —

3.19 0.06 — —

— 1.78 3.09 2.52

1.86 3.09 2.52

0.54 — — .

4.06 — — —

1.57 0.09 — —

3.48 1.11 — —

0.93 — — —

SOURCE Ward s Commumcatlons Inc Ward s 1977 Aulornoflve Yearbook pp 116-117
would have many options open to them, American Motors and Chrysler, having had poor

earnings records in recent years, would probably find it difficult to raise funds in the market.

The capital and cost requirements associated

with meeting standards will probably deprive

the smaller firms of the flexibility needed to invest in both regulation-induced activities and

those related to product improvement and productivity. As figure 51 shows, Chrysler is the

most highly leveraged of the four companies. 62

Ch. 9—Cost and Capital Issues, Policies, and Findings • 281

This disadvantage, together with the ability of

larger firms to withstand cyclical demand conditions 63 and American Motors reliance on outside firms to provide improved engines and

equipment to meet Government standards, will

further decrease the competitiveness of the

smaller firms.

Policy Options

In view of the relationship between the automobile industry and the national economy, the

Federal Government might choose to adopt

policies designed to have a direct effect on the

structure or economic well-being of the industry. The following discussion suggests potential

changes in Federal Government policy with respect to regulation, capital allocation, and

research and development that merit further

study.

Regulation

The Federal Government’s policy of setting

regulations and performance standards to deal

with automobile-related problems has met with

Figure 51 .— Long-Term Debt as a Percent of Equity

30

20

10

Chrysler

American

Motors

Ford

General

Motors

1970 1971

SOURCE .Sydec/EEA p III-182

II .( y { ( ) . ; { . I 1

972 1973 1974 1975
282 ● Changes in the Future Use and Characteristics of the Automobile Transportation System

strong criticism and strong resistance by the industry. As late as July 1977, for example, the

automobile manufacturers were preparing to

turn out 1978 model cars while Congress was

amending the emission standards that applied to

that model year. Had Congress failed to pass the

Clean Air Act Amendments in time, the 1978

cars would have been in violation of the law.

The controversy over automobile regulatory

policy is not surprising, considering the economic stakes and the fact that regulations must

be set and implemented in the face of imperfect

knowledge about the causal relationship between automobile improvements and safer

travel, cleaner air, and reduced fuel consumption. b4

Supporters of the present regulatory system

can be found among environmentalist groups,

safety advocates, and automobile owners. Regulatory advocates argue that standards are necessary to force technological change within the

industry. They prefer standards to market incentives as a means of achieving national goals,

because standards, unlike taxes, address the

problem directly and provide the public with

symbolic assurance that some action is being

taken. bs

Those who oppose the regulatory system on

principle argue that intervention of the Government in industrial decisionmaking has led to an

increasing maze of regulations which are inconsistent and generally unresponsive to changes in

technology or consumer attitudes and preferences. In their view, the regulatory system has

sheltered the industry against competitive pressures, led to higher prices, and has served the

public poorly. They strongly advocate the use

of market incentives, which they claim are more

effective and economically efficient.

The automobile industry does not necessarily

oppose standards on principle, but on the

grounds that the technology for meeting them is

unavailable and the costs cannot be fully

recovered even by increasing the price to the

consumer. Testifying before the Automobile Industry Task Force, Lee Iacocca, former President of the Ford Motor Company, stated that,

“ltlhn B. HC}IWC)LK1 and (,ther~, RiJ,yulatIHg t)Ic Aut[~m(Ihi/[1

[lratt I’aper, 1<t>p,~rt ‘77-007 ( ~(~~t{~n: NIIT Energy Labc>ratory, ]uly

1Q77 ), p Iv.

“ Iblci. p 4 lb

between 1975 and 1980, $1.8 billion would have

to be spent by the industry to meet Government

standards for vehicle safety, damageability, and

pollution control. bb

Capital Allocation

The costs of research and development of

automobile technology to meet Federal environmental, safety, and energy standards have promoted a number of suggestions for Government

programs to help companies that experience

long-term difficulties raising capital. Manufacturers have traditionally raised capital through

the sale of commercial paper in the marketplace,

in competition for funds with bank certificate

deposits and U.S. Treasury bills. In periods of

restrictive monetary policy, the cost of raising

funds in this way increases dramatically and aggravates the industry’s problem of acquiring

capital .67

Despite the problems of raising capital, the

automobile industry has continually opposed

proposals for the nonmarket allocation of

funds. Testifying before Congress, the chief

economist of the Ford Motor Company argued

that the only way to improve the industry’s

capital position is for the Government to

eliminate unnecessary and costly regulations

and standards and to improve general economic

conditions. “I see no way of maintaining a

viable privately owned and operated automobile industry in the country if, (in addition to the

Government’s present involvement), the Government finances our capital expenditures. ”6g A

representative of American Motors was somewhat less emphatic in his opposition. Although

opposed to the Federal allocation of capital,

American Motors urged that the Government

facilitate conventional borrowing by providing

loan guarantees. b9

The United Auto Workers (UAW), on the

other hand, favor credit allocation as a means of

providing capital for the development of

energy-related technology. Speaking to the

Automobile Industry Task Force, Leonard

“bU. S. Congress, House, Committee on Banking, Currency, and

Housing, The Automobile industry and Its impact Llpon the Nation !ScononIy, hearings before the Automobile Industry Task

Force, 94th Cong., 2d sess., Vol. 1, June 1975, p. 286.

‘-t bici.

O* Ibid, p, 105.

““tbld, P. IJQ,
Ch. 9—Cost and Capital Issues, Policies, and Findings ● 283

Woodcock of the UAW urged the Government

to create a National Production Energy Board

empowered to make loans to the private sector,

contract with the private sector, enter into joint

ventures, and (when necessary ) take a direct initiative in development technology. 70

Government Research and Development

Some supporters of direct Government intervention argue that if the appropriate technology

is to be made available, the Government will

have to develop it. In their view, the auto industry will be unable to develop technology in

response to federally mandated performance

standards, because sufficient resources have not

been invested in the right kinds of technology.

This pattern will continue, since the private sector, operating under normal market incentives,

will always tend to underinvest in research for

which it is difficult to capture a full return.

Federal involvement would be justified on the

grounds that the benefits would accrue to both

automobile users and nonusers alike. The

United Auto Workers have advocated Government research and development in the areas

where the private sector has failed to respond. 71

Opponents of a more direct Government role

in research and development argue that the industry can perform adequately on its own and

that standards are too stringent in view of

available technology, consumer prices, and

product demand. The cost of research and development should not be borne by the general

taxpayer, since it is the automobile owner who

imposes the pollution costs of emissions and

who will benefit most from fuel-efficient cars.

Although the automobile industry has not opposed Government research and development in

areas of general national interest, it has opposed

Government efforts to develop specific technological devices .72

CONSUMER COSTS

Consumer costs of automobile travel represent a substantial portion of personal consumption expenditures in the United States. The Department of Commerce and the Department of

Labor, the two most reliable sources of these

data, estimate that user-operated transportation

costs represented between 13 and 20 percent of

consumer expenditures in 1973, the last year for

which data from both sources are available. 73

The cost of owning and operating an automobile has not changed appreciably over the long

term. However, the percentage of the household

budget devoted to automobile transportation

has risen as the number of households owning

more than one car has increased and the number

of those without cars has declined. In virtually

all but the lowest income categories, expenditures on automobile transportation have replaced food as the second largest item in the

household budget.

Trends Affecting Personal

Transportation Costs

Figure 52 and table 125 trace the recent

history of elements that comprise the cost of

private automobile transportation. The total

cost of owning and operating an automobile

declined steadily in real terms rom 1962 t o

1973. 74 After 1973, total automobile costs rose

“’Tc)tal ~)wnershlp and {)perat)n~ cc)sts Include the element s

sh~)wn In tlgure 5z, WI t h apprc)pr)a te weigh t<, p] us c)t her 1 terns

such a< uwd car pncm, t I res, repd J rs d nd md i n tdnd nc e I nsu rd rice,

reKi>t rat i~)n and 1 Icense tee~, and parking charges. The index is acl -

]u<ted to remc>~’e c[}st esca Iatlon ,]iw}clated WI th lmpro~rement~ in

the quantlt} or quallt} tlt the products to pr[)~icte as pure a

mea~u rc c)t price t rend~ a~ p~)~~]ble Fc)r example, it sc)me des]gn

teature or accesw>r} I\ added to the IIst t)} ]tem$ included ]n th e

base pr]c e ot a ncw car tht> etfect c)n price ha~ been remc)ved In

cd Ic u ]d t! ng the I ndc)x
284 ● Changes in the Future Use and Characteristics of the Automobile Transportation System

slightly and, by 1976—due primarily to the

sharp increase in gasoline and motor oil costs—

they reached a level that erased some of the

decline of the previous decade. The decline in

the real cost of gasoline and motor oil after 1973

was offset by an increase in other cost components—notably new cars and insurance—during

the recession of 1974-75.

Gasoline and motor oil costs were declining

more rapidly than total costs until 1973-74,

when the OPEC price increases raised these

costs to a slightly higher level than 15 years

earlier. Auto repairs and maintenance costs held

constant through the mid-1960’s but have gradually and steadily declined by about 10 percent

in real dollars during the last decade. New car

costs decreased steadily and at a greater rate

than other components—more than a 30 percent

decline over 15 years in real terms.

Figure 53 describes trends in the major components that make up total automobile-related

costs, as they have been identified by FHWA.75

Cost projections have been made for the years

1985 and 2000.

Although insurance costs have declined in

real terms, it is unlikely, according to the

FHWA, that such declines will continue. Recent

data on insurance rates tend to support this

view. Modest decreases might be realized from

new safety standards, if they are not offset by

the downsizing of cars.

Similarly, the costs of garage, parking, and

tolls are not expected to change significantly.

Slight decreases have occurred and might continue. As suburbanization continues, a relatively constant number (but smaller proportion) of

cars pay garage and parking charges, which are

common only in central cities. This might be

‘Ma]or cost ct>mpt~nent~ have been converted to cents per mile

(in 1975 dollars). In contrast to the Consumer Price Index, the

FHWA ciata provide a basis tor estimating the ~)veral] ownership

and opera t ing cost (JI autos and the mutually exclusive c(>mp~~nent~, The FHWA data must be treated w]th caut](~n, since they

arc drawn trorn only one city, the Balt~more metropolitan area.

The FHh’A studle~, particularly the earl]er c>nes, were ad hoc ei -

l(~rts rather than a time+ erie> analysi~ such as the C~]nsumer Price

Index, AIsc}, the detlnitl(~n ot the “standard” car used by FHWA

has changed c}ver ~uccessive years st) that time-series trends ]n

cc~sts have little meaning,

Table 125.—Cost of Owning and Operating an Automobile—1 950 to 1976

(cents per mile, in 1975 dollars)

Type of DepreautomobiIe ciation

1976 Standard . . . 4.7

976 Compact . . . 3.6

976 Subcompact 3.0

974 Standard . . . 4.6

974 Compact . . . 3.2

974 Subcompact 2.5

1972 Standard . . . 5.7

1972 Compact . . . 3.5

1972 Subcompact 2.7

19704 dr. Sedan. . 4.4

19684 dr. Sedan . 4.3

19604 dr. Sedan 4.5

19504 dr. Sedan. . 3.1

Maintenance,

accessories,

parts, &

tires

Gas & oil

(excluding

taxes)

Garage,

parking

& tolls

4.0

3.2

3.0

3.7

3.0

2.7

3.3

2.8

2.7

2.6

3.3

3.6

2.9

3.1

2.4

1.7

3.5

2.8

2.2

2.7

2.3

1.8

2.6

2.6

2.9

3.1

2.1

2.0

2.0

2.2

2.2

2.2

2.3

2.3

2.3

2.5

2.8

2.0

2.0

Insurance

1.6

.5

.4

.8

.6

.6

1.8

1.7

1.5

2.4

2.2

2.4

2.0

SOURCE U S Department of Transportation, Federal Hlghwa~ Admlmstratlon C;st 01 Owrrlrrg arrd Operafing an Auforrrob//e 1976

State &

Federal Total

taxes costs

1.5 17.0

1.1 13.9

0.9 12.0

1.6 17.4

1.3 14.1

1.0 12.2

1.7

1.3

1.0

1.9

1.9

2.2

1.6

17.5

13.9

12,1

16.5

17.0

17.8

14.8
Ch.. 9—Cost and Capital Issues, Policies, and Findings • 285

I

#

‘ //

r I 1“

/

{ z

/

/
286 ● Changes in the Future Use and Characteristics of the Automobile Transportation System

Figure 53.—Forecasts for Components of Ownership and Operation Costs of a

Standard-Size Auto

“Standard size”

2

1

6

5

4

3

2

1

5

4

3

2

1

State and Federal taxes - - -

- - d

t 1 1 1 i I 1

1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1985 2000

-

/

Depreciation

1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1985 2000

t

Maintenance, accessories, parts & tires

1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1985 2000

4 *

3

- -

- -

2

1 Gas & oil (excluding taxes)

I I 1 1 1 1 .

1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1985 2000

.5

2 1

- -

1 Garage, parking & tolls

1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1985 2000

3 .

2 - \

- - - -

. Insurance 1

I 1 1 1 1 I *

1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1985 2000
Ch. 9—Cost and Capital Issues, Policies, and Findings ● 287

offset by rate increases in cities seeking to

discourage auto commuting. Toll facilities will

handle a declining proportion of VMT for similar reasons. Because fewer toll roads are being

built, they represent a declining proportion of

total highway mileage.

Base Case projections of future gas and oil

costs, excluding taxes, are based primarily on

fleet miles per gallon, vehicle miles of travel,

and projected gasoline prices. Oil costs are projected to change in proportion to gasoline costs.

The modest decline in real cost predicted for

standard cars from 1976 to 1985 is a continuation of long-term trends. Weight reduction and

improved fuel efficiency are expected to contribute to declining cost for the standard-size car

through 1985.

Depreciation costs are projected to rise about

9 percent in real terms from 1976 to 1985. Based

on new car price trends, a decline of about 2 percent per year, or about 18 percent total over the

9-year period, might be expected for a fixed

auto design. 76

The cost of maintenance, accessories, parts,

and tires is projected to increase by about 16

percent in real terms between 1976 and 1985.

This increase is slightly above the historical annual rate of increase for the four-door, standard-size car assumed in the FHWA studies, and

is greatly above the Consumer Price Index

trend, which shows a 10-percent decrease for the

auto repair and maintenance cost index over the

last 15 years. This upward projection allows for

increased maintenance costs that might accompany new safety and emission control equipment.

Table 126 shows forecasts of total ownership

and operating costs per mile for each class of

new automobile and for the average new car

fleet. The overall new car fleet average cost is

expected to drop slightly from 15.3 cents to 14.9

cents per mile in 1975 dollars. Because of the

projected shift to smaller size cars, this slight

decrease in cost is expected to occur despite the

price rise of 2 to 6 percent projected for each

class.

Because the changing mix of new car sales for

1985 to 2000 cannot be predicted with accuracy,

the same method cannot be used to forecast

average new car costs per mile for the long term.

Generally speaking, costs per mile for the three

size classes of cars are expected to increase between 4 and 5 percent between 1985 and 2000.

Because of this trend and because the shift to

smaller classes will have been largely accomplished, the new car fleet average cost per mile is

expected to increase slightly after 1985, reaching

approximately the 1976 level of 15.3 cents (in

1975 dollars) by 2000. Expressed as a proportion

of real total personal disposable income, auto

ownership and operating costs are projected to

decline because real income is forecast to grow

at a rate substantially higher than VMT.

Table 126.— Estimated Average New Car Costs of Ownership and Operation Based on

Projected Shifts in Size Classes

.

1976 1985

Contribution Contribution

Proportion cost to average Proportion cost to average

of fleet x per= fleet of fleet x per = fleet

Size class in class mile cost/mile in class mile cost/miIe

. . .

Subcompact. . 0.22 11 .9¢ 2.6¢ 0.30 -

12.6¢ 3.8¢

Compact. . . . . . . . . . . . 0.19 13.8 2.6 0.30 14.3 4.3

Intermediate . . 0.29 15.4 4,5 0.16 15.8 2.5

Standard. . . . 0.20 17.0 3.4 0.07 17.3 1.2

Small Luxury . . . . . . . . 0.05 18.5 0.9 0.09 18,8 1.7

Large Luxury . . . . . . . . . . . 0.06 20.1 1.2 0.07 20.2 1.4

Totals . . ... ... ...

-—.———.

1.00 15.3¢ 1.00 14.911

.

SOURCE The new car fleet mix forecast IS based on the EEA auto stock model Ownership and operating cost forecasts by Sydec are based on methods described in

Sydec EEA pp lll-150 to Ill 162
288 • Changes in the Future Use and Characteristics of the Automobile Transportation System

Table 127 shows the projections of ownership

and operating costs for 1985 and 2000 by automobile size class. Within size classes, costs are

expected to increase during both the 1975-85

and 1985-2000 periods. This increase is due

primarily to rises in depreciation, maintenance

and parts, and gasoline and oil. The Environmental Policy and Conservation Act (EPCA)

fuel-economy standards are expected to cause a

shift of new car sales among size classes that will

be sufficient to offset these increases in each

class by 1985, As a result, the weighted overall

fleet average costs per mile are forecast to

decline slightly from 15.3 cents per mile in 1976

to 14.9 cents in 1985 (in 1975 dollars). By the

year 2000, however, the cost reduction due to

shifts to smaller cars will be more than offset by

continuing increases in the real price of petroleum, so that the average cost per mile for the

fleet will return to about the 1976 level.

Policy Options to Control

Consumer Costs

Government policies to control the cost of

automobile ownership and use might be

directed toward any of the major costs of automobile transportation. Three that have been

selected for consideration here are those that

deal with the costs of insurance, repair, and

maintenance—the three components of ownership and use cost that might rise more steeply

than others between now and 2000. The specific

policies considered are:

• A Federal law providing for no-fault insurance and other modifications in insurance practices,

• State regulation of repair practices, and

• Federal incentives or standards to increase

automobile durability and maintainability.

Automobile Insurance

Projected increases in the number of automobiles and in vehicle miles traveled foreshadow

an increase in the number of accidents. This

trend, coupled with the rising costs of medical

care and vehicle repairs, could lead to increased

insurance premiums. Historically, insurance

companies have used a system of risk assessment to minimize their losses. Under this system, the decision of whether or not to issue a

policy is based on the applicant’s driving record,

age, sex, marital status, and drinking habits.

Critics argue that risk assessment prevents some

drivers from obtaining insurance at prices they

can afford. Although insurance companies are

required to participate in assigned risk pools

that make insurance available to high-risk applicants, the rates are so high that many drivers

do not buy coverage.

Table 127,—Costs Per Mile of Owning and Operating an Automobile in 1976, 1985, and 2000

(all values in 1975 dollars)

Small Large

Subcompact Compact Intermediate Standard luxury luxury

1976. ......, . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0119 0.138 0.154 0.170 0.185 0.201

Base Case

1985. ......., . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.126 0.143 0.158 0.173 0.188 0.202

2000. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4°/0 to 5% increase over 1985 due to gasoline price increase.

Petroleum Conservation

1985. .., . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3°/0 above 1985 Base Case due to gasoline price.

2000. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4 % above 2000 Base Case due to gasoline price.

Improved Environment

1985. , ... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5% above 1985 Base Case due to gas price and air quality equipment.

2000. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3°/0 above 2000 Base Case due to air quality equipment.

Increased Mobility

1985. . . . . . . . . . . . ... ... 30/. above 1985 Base Case due to gasoline price.

2000, . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1% below 2000 Base Case due to insurance cost decrease.

Improved Accessibility

1985. ..., . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3% above 1985 Base Case due to gasoline price.

2000. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4% above 2000 Base Case due to gasoline price.

SOURCE 1976 data are from FHWA. Cost 01 Owrrlng and Operat/ng an Autornob//e 7976, all values adjusted to 1975 dollars based on CPI Sydec forcasts are based upon

detailed analysls of cost trends for all components of ownership and operating costs and the !nfluence of each policy case on these costs
Ch. 9—Cost and Capital Issues, Policles, and Findlngs ● 289

It is also argued that the present system is inefficient and fails to provide complete coverage.

The late Senator Phillip A. Hart stated that

. . . of $5.1 billion of personal and family losses

suffered by one-half million serious injury and

fatality victims of automobile accidents in 1967,

the auto insurance fault system provided only

$813 million. . . .“ Averaging all degrees of

economic loss, the ratio of recovery to loss

ranges from 21 to 36 percent.

The present system has also been criticized for

prolonged delays in payment of claims when the

responsibility for payment must be determined

by trial. In some States, there have been delays

of 3 years and longer. Although relatively few

suits for claims actually go to trial, settlements

are often not negotiated until the trial date approaches.

Thus, consumers have a minimum of three

basic complaints about automobile insurance:

high cost, perceived inequities in the process of

setting rates and making insurance available,

and excessive time required to collect claims. An

important issue is the role that the States and

Federal Government should play in shaping an

automobile insurance system that is responsive

to these concerns.

Until 1970, the prevailing system in the

United States was one that required drivers,

judged to be at fault, to pay reparations to accident victims. Because most drivers carried liability insurance, these payments were typically

made by insurance companies on behalf of

negligent (accident-causing) drivers. Unless

fault could be determined through negotiation

of the parties and a monetary settlement agreed

upon, the matter was decided in a court of law,

with the plaintiff having the right to a trial by

jury. If successful in obtaining a judgment, the

plaintiff received reparations to the extent that

the defendent’s assets, including any insurance

coverage, sufficed to pay the judgment. Often,

the substantial delay between the time of the accident and the time of judgment meant that the

plaintiff himself had to shoulder the expenses of

medical care, loss of work, and substitute means

of transportation. The negligent driver, under

this system, received no financial assistance,

unless he had purchased first-party insurance

coverage.

In 1970, Massachusetts became the first State

to institute a “no-fault” reparation scheme

whereby each driver in an accident is paid immediately, by his own insurance company, for

medical expenses incurred up to $2,000. Since

1970, 23 other States have instituted some type

of no-fault insurance plan. Insurance companies

cannot independently adopt a no-fault insurance scheme since, under present regulations,

they must follow the law of the State in which

they operate.

Theoretically, a pure no-fault plan would

avoid the need to go to court to determine liability and the amount of reparation to be made by

the negligent driver. The question of fault would

be irrelevant, and compensation for economic

loss would be made to all injured parties on an

established payment schedule. A pure no-fault

system would also prohibit any suit in tort for

damage recovery, making accident victims

dependent on established schedules for

recovery, However, no State has adopted a pure

no-fault system. All 23 States have established

thresholds such that, if a person suffers economic loss above a certain amount, he can sue

for further recovery in the courts. Therefore,

many drivers in no-fault States continue to

carry liability insurance to guard against the

possibility of a substantial court judgment

against them.

The Federal Government could approach the

problem of automobile insurance in three ways:

continue to let the States regulate all automobile

insurance, establish national insurance standards, or expand existing Federal social programs

to deal with the problems faced by drivers involved in automobile accidents.

If the Federal Government were to establish a

national plan to deal with the costs of automobile accidents, it might either set standards

for States to meet or exceed, or it might impose

specific requirements. A precedent for Federal

involvement exists with the uniform safety

standards established for the States.

The idea of setting Federal insurance standards is not new. Legislation to that effect was introduced in the 92d, 93dr 94th, and 95th Congresses. Two identical bills were introduced in

April 1977, under which basic standards would
290 ● Changes in the Future Use and Characteristics of the Automobile Transportation System

be established for no-fault benefit plans providing for rehabilitation of, and compensation

for, motor vehicle accident victims. (S. 1381

and H.R. 66ol: The Standards for No-Fault

Motor Vehicle Benefit Act. ) These bills allowed

each State to establish its own no-fault plan, as

long as it met or exceeded Federal standards.

The proposed standard benefits included:

Emergency treatment and care and medical

and rehabilitation expenses up to $100,000

(in some cases $250,000), with optional

coverage of up to $1 million,

Wage losses up to $12,000,

Replacement services for up to 1 year to

allow accident victims to hire someone to

perform tasks that they could no longer

perform as a result of their injury, and

Funeral and death benefits of $1,000.

The power of insurance companies to refuse

to renew or to cancel policies would be strictly

limited under these bills. Access to the courts

would be provided only in cases of death, serious disfigurement, or other serious or permanent injury. States would be required to develop

a plan for making insurance available to everyone a t reasonable rates.

Since no-fault provisions for vehicle damage

were not included in the proposed legislation,

such claims would be dealt with in the traditional manner. States that have tried to incorporate compensation for vehicle damage in

their no-fault plans have experienced serious

problems. Massachusetts, for example, repealed

the vehicle damage provisions of its no-fault

plan in 1974. Michigan, while including such

coverage, provides for a $100 deduction similar

to the so-called “collision” insurance plans.

If federally imposed no-fault standards were

adopted, accident victims would receive immediate financial assistance to pay for medical

treatment, to make up for lost wages, and to

secure substitute services. The time required to

establish “fault“ would be eliminated, except in

cases of extreme hardship. All parties harmed in

an accident would receive assistance— in most

cases, more than they would receive under existing State programs.

Discrimination between policyholders as a

result of ratesetting processes, policy cancellations, and nonrenewal of policies would be

recognized as specific problems to be dealt with

at the State level. While the cost savings would

not be dramatic—since more people would be

receiving benefits—there would probably be

some savings due to reduction in the number of

court cases. To the extent that the number of

cases would be reduced by the Federal plan,

courts would be freer to deal with other matters

of concern.

One group that would stand to lose by the implementation of such a plan is the legal profession. Claimants would need legal representation

only when necessary to prove fault. Historically, lawyers fees for handling a plaintiff’s case

have accounted for one-quarter of a settlement

reached prior to trial and one-third of the plaintiff’s recovery if the matter was resolved in the

courts. Fees for defending a client are also

significant. By removing the issue of fault from

all but the most serious cases, and by having

compensation awarded on the basis of established schedules, there would be little for

lawyers to argue about in court.

Except in the most severe cases, injured parties would be unable to recover damages for

“pain and suffering, ” If the no-fault plan were to

include a deductible amount, each claimant

would suffer an equal loss regardless of “fault. ”

Without such a clause, minor claims would add

significantly to insurance costs, as evidenced by

present pricing practices for deductibles. Most

no-fault programs that have been proposed require compulsory insurance coverage, an issue

that is not necessarily tied to no-fault.

The cost impacts on consumers cannot be

predicted with confidence since potential reductions of legal fees are offset by the prospect of

having to compensate a greater number of accident victims.

Automobile Repair

Institutions that record consumer complaints

identify automobile repairs as the leading cause

of consumer dissatisfaction. Consumers complain that repair services are too costly, poorly

performed, misguided, unnecessary, and sometimes fraudulent. Even new car owners, with

recourse to warranty policies, complain of unsatisfactory repair services. The early breakdown of parts—in some cases on brand-new ve-
Ch. 9—Cost and Capital Issues, Policies, and Findings ● 291

hicles—creates a considerable cost and inconvenience for the owner. In the coming years,

consumer problems with automobile repairs are

likely to increase as cars become more complicated and as the number of trained mechanics

fails to meet increased demand.

Part of the cause of unsatisfactory repair service is that manufacturers make 90 percent of

their profits on the sale of new cars, and only 10

percent on the subsequent sale of parts. The

pressure on dealers is to sell. While manufacturers have canceled dealer franchises because

of poor sales performance, they have seldom, if

ever, done so because a dealer has failed to service cars adequately. Warranty repair work is

not in the interest of either the automobile

manufacturers or the automobile dealer. Manufacturers, in fact, have discouraged dealers from

doing warranty repair work by requiring extensive paperwork and, at times, by refusing to reimburse all of their claims fully.

Photo Cred/f U S D.eoartmenf of Transporfaf/on
292 ● Changes in the Future Use and Characteristics of the Automobile Transportation System

With the exception of the Magnuson-Moss

Warranty-Federal Trade Commission Improvement Act (also known as the Consumer Product

Warranty and Federal Trade Commission Improvement Act) that requires warranties to be

stated clearly and that prohibits manufacturers

from disclaiming or modifying implied warranties of the common law, the Federal Government has not intervened in the area of automobile repair. Rather, the responsibility for

consumer protection has rested with the States.

Three basic types of automobile repair laws

have been developed: disclosure laws (truth-inauto-repair laws), facility-licensing laws, and

mechanics-licensing laws.

Disclosure laws typically require that a

customer be given a written estimate of the

repair costs, that a customer authorize repairs in

writing before they are begun, that the customer

be provided with a written invoice detailing the

parts used and labor performed, and that the

customer be allowed to inspect the parts.

Facility-licensing laws require auto repair

facilities to obtain licenses for the purpose of doing business. Often, such facilities must pay a

fee and post a bond. In the event of fraud or deceptive practices, the license can be suspended

or revoked.

Mechanics-licensing laws require that repair

work be either performed or supervised by a

certified, licensed mechanic. Licensing typically

requires that the applicant pass a competency

examination.

To date, 15 States and 3 local governments

have legislated one or more of these forms of

regulation of automobile repair services. Table

128 shows the States that currently have automobile repair laws, according to the type of

legislation in effect.

It is, perhaps, too early to evaluate the effectiveness of State actions to improve automobile

repair services. If these policies are successful,

the Federal Government might continue its present passive policy with respect to automobile

repair. If the States are unsuccessful, the Federal

Government might choose to take a more active

role by passing national legislation designed to

regulate or control the quality of repair service.

Table 128.—State Regulation of Automobile Repair

Facility Mechanics

Disclosure licensing licensing

IawsaIawsb

lawsc

California. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . x x

Connecticut. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . x x

Florida . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . x

Hawaii . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . x x x

Maryland . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . x

Michigan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . x x x

Montana. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . x

Nevada. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . x

New Hampshire . . . . . . . . . . . . . . x

New Jersey . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . x

New York . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . x x

Ohio . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . x

Rhode Island . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . x

Utah . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . x

Wisconsin . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . x

District of Columbia. . . . . . . . . . . x x x

Montgomery County, Md. . . . . . . x x

Prince Georges County, Md. . . . . x x

Dallas, Tex. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . x x

aDISCIOSUre [aws typically require that a customer be given a written estimate of the repair costs, that he authorize rePalrS In

wntlng before they are begun, that he be provided with a written Invoice deta[ IIng the parts used and labor performed, and that

he be allowed to Inspect parts.

bFacl]lty I[cens[ng laws require auto repair facllltles to obtain Ilcenses for the PurPose of doln9 business

cMechan ICS I Icen SI ng laws req u Ire that fepal r work be elt her performed or supervl sed by a cert I fled, I Icen sed mechanic

SOURCE SRI, pp F27 to F29
.

Ch, 9—Cost and Capfta/ Issues, Po/lcles, and Flndlngs ● 2 9 3

. .

Automobile Durability

Automobile durability has a significant effect

on consumer costs and is directly related to depreciation, which constitutes about one-quarter

of the average cost per mile of operating an

automobile. Durability of individual components is, moreover, a major element in repair

and maintenance costs, which account for

another 20 percent of the average cost per

mile. 77

The present economic system provides essentially no incentives for increasing automobile

durability. Consumers have no channels

through which to express a preference for more

durable vehicles, nor do they have the knowhow to assess the durability of the cars that they

buy. The magnitude of the private investment

required to own and operate an automobile

Photo Credlf U S Deparfrnent of Transpoftaflon

gives rise to the question of whether the Federal

Government should intervene in the market in

an effort to increase the durability of the private

automobile.

The average automobile engine produced in

the United States lasts 100,000 miles before

needing overhaul, and some engines have a life

of 150,000 miles or more. At the point when

overhaul is required, many vehicles are

scrapped. Others are outfitted with a new

engine and can be driven for an additional

period. Other major components of the drivetrain, body, and suspension system, might last

longer than the engine.

The lifetime of accessories and components

such as radiators, water pumps, distributors,

alternators, and carburetors is often less than

half that of the major power train parts. Optional accessories such as power steering, power

brakes, and air-conditioning have similarly
294 . Changes in the Future Use and Characteristics of the Automobile Transportation System

shorter life spans, as do seats, floor mats, door

panels, and other appearance items. Degradation of such parts is a major factor leading to

junking of the vehicle before the major components are worn out, The durability of all of

these items could be greatly enhanced at relatively modest cost.

Corrosion of body parts caused by ice-dissolving chemicals also shortens the life of the

automobile. Corrosion could be controlled

rather inexpensively by using more galvanized

sheet steel in the automobile body or by improved undercoating,

Although overall durability varies from car to

car and from manufacturer to manufacturer, it

is generally agreed that the smaller the car, the

shorter its life span. Most likely, smaller cars

are less durable then larger ones because they

are operated at a greater proportion of their

available power or capacity.

Durability is also a function of the manner in

which a car is operated and maintained. While

periodic motor vehicle inspections—first instituted in Pennsylvania in 1929—were designed

to remove unsafe vehicles from the road, they

had a secondary effect of promoting automobile

maintenance and repairs, thereby increasing the

life of the vehicle. The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration now requires every

State to implement such a safety inspection program, although only 31 States and the District

of Columbia have actually done so.

If the Federal Government were to seek to

control automobile ownership costs, it might

consider policies to improve durability. Among

these are:

Establish uniform warranties (or guaranteed life standards for all major automotive

components, and enforce compliance,

Require life testing and verification of all

new cars as is now done in the case of emissions,

Expand and fully implement a periodic

maintenance and vehicle inspection program to cover safety, emissions, fuel

economy, noise, and durability,

Provide incentives such as rebates, taxes,

or development subsidies individually, or

in concert, to encourage durability,

Establish an experimental durable car program analogous to the Research Safety

Vehicle Program, and

Provide the public, or require that the public be provided with, detailed information

about the longevity, maintenance, and

repair requirements of all makes and

models of cars. 78

““The Motor Vehicle Information and Cost Savings Act ( 1972)

requires that such information be provided, but this law has not

yet been implemented by NHTSA.

F’hofo Credits Top /e//, General Electric Photo for u .S DeParfrnerIt of Energy top r/ghf, U S Departrnerrf of Errergy,

bottom /ef[ U S Department of Transportation, and bottom rlghf, Genera/ Motors Corporat(orr
Chapter 10

[

.

.1,.

i

$
Chapter 10.-TECHNOLOGY

Page

Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 297

Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 298

Historical and Current Trends . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 299

Materials, Design, and Manufacturing

Processes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 302

Propulsion Systems. . .....................304

Drivetrain. . . . . . ..........................304

Regulation . . . . . . ....................,.,..305

Automotive Technology to 1985. .. ............310

Downsizing and Materials Substitution. .. ....310

Otto Cycle Engines . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .317

Diesel Engines. . .........................322

Drivetrain. . . . . . . . . .......................325

Accessories and Accessory Drives . .........327

Electronics . . . . . .........................327

Aerodynamic Drag and Friction . ............328

Safety Technology. . ......................329

Recycling . ..............................332

AutomobileTechnology Beyond 1985..........333

Propulsion Systems. . . . ................,..333

Drivetrain and Tires . ......................340

Vehicle Design and Manufacture . . . . . . . . . . . .340

Electric and Hybrid Vehicles. . ..............343

Alternate Fuels . . . . . . . ...,*... . . . . . . . . ● . . . . . 352

OilShale . ...............................352

TarSands. . . . . . . .........................355

Coal Liquids . . . . .........................356

Alcohol Fuel and Alcohol-Gasoline Blends ,..359

Hydrogen . . . . . . ..........................362

LIST OF TABLES

Table No. Page

137.

138.

139.

140.

141.

142.

143

144

145

146

147.

148.

149.

150.

151.

Page

Materials Used in a Chevrolet impala.......3l4

Hypothetical Vehicle Upper and Lower

Body Weight Reductions . ...............316

Drivetrain Losses. . ................,....325

Hydrokinetic Transmission Improvements. . 326

Current and Potential Transmission

Efficiencies . . . . . . . . ....................326

Frontal Area for Typical PassengerCars. . . . 329

Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards,

Near-Term lmprovements Under

Consideration for Passenger Vehicles .. ...330

Occupant Crash Protection Effectiveness

Estimates . ............................332

Technical Features for Highway Safety, ....332

Stirling and Baseline Engine Data .........337

Desirable Minimum Characteristics—

Electric Work Vehicle . ..................346

Technical Goals of U.S. Postal Service

Electric Delivery Vehicle . ................346

Typical Electric Vehicle Component

Design Alternatives.. . ..................347

Hybrid Vehicle SubsystemTypical Design

Alternatives. . . . . . . . . . ..................349

Comparison of Costs for Electric and

Conventional Cars. . ....................352

LISTOF FIGURES

Fiaure No. Page

54. illustrative Automobile Sizes . .............300

55.

56.

129.

130.

131.

132.

133.

134.

135.

136.

Vehicle Characteristics. . ................302

U.S. Sales of Captive lmports . ............302

Automobile Materials Used in a 1974

Plymouth Valiant . ......................302

Summary of California and Federal

Passenger Vehicle Exhaust Emission

Standards, 1970to1982and Later ... ... ...3O6

Chronology of Federal Motor Vehicle

Safety Standards and Regulations. . .......308

Vehicle Weight, 1976 and 1981............313

General Motors Weight-Reduction

Technology . . . . . . ......................313

General Motors Corporation Alternative

ill, Model Year 1985 Engine Production

Summary . . . . . . . . ......................314

57,

56

63

64

65

66

. 67

Factory installation of Selected Equipment

From 1956 to 1976 . ......................301

Historical Source of Octane Quality in

Commercial Gasolines . ..................305

Time-Phased lntroduction of GMC

Weight-ReductionTechnology. . ...........315

U.S. Auto Industry New Plant and Equipment

Expenditures . ..........................317

Typical Emission Control System . .........318

Accessory Horsepower. . .................327

Effect of Speed on Power Requirements. ....328

Schematic of Air-Cushioned Restraint

System . . . . . . . . . ........................331

Characteristics of Automotive Propulsion

Systems . . . . . . . . . .......................334

Principle of the Stirling Engine . . . . . . . . . . ...335

Stirling Engine With Swa sh Plate. ..........335

Electric Vehicle Configurations . ...........348

Hybrid Vehicle Power Systems . ...........350
SUMMARY

During this century, automobile manufacturing has evolved from a small group of struggling

entrepreneurs into a massive industry and Government complex. The evolution of the industry

has been largely determined by the capability of

automobile manufacturers to mass produce vehicles to satisfy public demand at an affordable

price. While there has been intense competition

among manufacturers, the technology that has

developed is remarkably uniform in terms of vehicle size, performance: and component characteristics. Until recently, the factors that influenced general vehicle characteristics and the

success of particular models were styling, performance, comfort, convenience, reliability,

and cost. As this formula was mastered by automobile manufacturers, the climate of the industry became that of an established and mature

technology.

Within the past decade, however, the established pattern may been upset. Through a combination of public concern, Government action,

and the force of circumstances, automobile technology has had to take new directions. The industry has had to be more mindful of environmental impacts, fuel economy, and safety. This

has introduced new design requirements, new

production techniques, new manufacturer responsibilities, and new costs. The characteristics

of the automobile have begun to undergo a

transformation in terms of both the technology

employed and the rate at which changes are introduced. Some of these changes will be seen in

the near term, by 1985. Others will take much

longer to emerge and may not be on the market

until sometime around 2000.

The technological aspects of the automobile

transportation system that are likely to change

in the near term are:

Ž Downsizing programs now underway will

reduce the average size and weight of the

vehicle fleet. Wasted space resulting from

styling and image features will be greatly

reduced.

• Substitution of lightweight materials such

as aluminum, plastics, and high-strength

low-alloy steels will reduce vehicle weight

further.

• Changes in vehicle layout, such as frontwheel drive, will allow further size and

weight reduction.

• Additional increases in fuel economy will

be achieved by improvements in transmissions and drive trains and by reduced power

requirements for accessories.

● Several new engines or refinements of existing engines have been introduced recently or probably will be on the market in the

near future:

—diesels (several offered now),

—stratified charge (offered now by Honda),

—Ford PROCO type (single-chamber)

stratified charge,

—valve selectors (ready now, but not on

the market), and

—turbocharging (offered now by GM and

Ford).

● Electronic fuel control and ignition systems

will come into widespread use and will help

to maintain efficient engine performance

and to reduce the need for tuneups.

• The introduction of these technological improvements should permit the 1985 automobile fuel-economy goals to be met, and

possibly exceeded.

2 9 7
298 ● Changes in the Future Use and Characteristics of the Automobile Transportation System

Emission goals, as currently legislated, can

be met using existing technology and anticipated refinements without serious penalty

in fuel economy.

Vehicle safety will be enhanced by the addition of passive restraints in the early 1980’s.

On the other hand, small cars increase the

potential for serious injury, unless crashworthiness is improved. Small cars can be

designed to match the crashworthiness of

present full-size cars at a nominal weight

and cost penalty.

Basic design and manufacturing processes

will not change substantially, except where

the use of new materials requires new processes .

Advanced vehicle and propulsion technologies such as Stirling and turbine engines,

electric vehicles, and alternative fuels will

not significantly penetrate the marketplace

by 1985.

Other characteristics, such as comfort,

programs on automobiles and fuels now being

conducted by Government and industry. The

outcomes of these programs are expected to

have an important influence on the direction

that automotive technology will take in the

period 1985-2000. These research and development activities include:

the gas turbine development program;

development of the Stirling engine, and its

derivatives;

R&D on electric and hybrid vehicles and

identification of prospective markets and

roles;

long-range development of highly efficient

engines, such as the adiabatic turbocompound diesel;

R&D on materials—including ceramic

components for engines, base metal catalysts, and energy-absorbing composites;

development of a homogeneous, all-plastic

●

●

●

●

●

●

tire;

definition of the health effects of automobile emissions—both those now regulated and those expected from new engines

and fuels; and

exploration of the processes and facilities

needed to provide new fuels—alcohol,

handling, and convenience options will be

much like today. Durability, damageability, and maintenance and service requirements will be essentially the same. The

variety of products now offered by manufacturers will remain, but the sales mix will

shift toward smaller vehicles.

There are several research and development

broad-cut

hydrogen.

petroleum fuels, synfuels, and

INTRODUCTION

The future of the automobile transportation •

system will be determined in part by the new

technologies introduced in the next 25 years. In

order to assess new technologies and their ef- ●

fects and impacts on the future characteristics of

the automobile transportation system, it is necessary to make estimates of a number of factors: ●

What are the technical or social drawbacks

of these technologies?

When will they be commercialized and at

what rate will they penetrate various markets?

How much will they cost the consumer?

How much will the development process

cost?

How do they compare with alternative

technologies?

Which new technologies are likely to be de- .

veloped within the next 25 years?

What potential benefits do they offer in .

terms of improved mobility, reduction of

emissions, energy conservation, or im-

●

●

proved safety? In addressing these questions, this chapter
Ch. 10— Technology ● 299

first describes the present technology of automobiles and the automobile industry, and

changes through 1985 that are already in prospect because of Government regulations, industry commitments, and firm economic and marketing considerations. The following topics are

covered:

● vehicle characteristics,

● manufacturing and materials,

● fuel economy,

● emission control,

• safety technology,

● Otto cycle engines,

Ž diesels,

• drivetrains and accessories, and

● electronics.

The final part of the chapter discusses

research on future systems or improvements

beyond 1985, including major technological

problems and opportunities. Included are discussions of advanced-propulsion systems, advanced-vehicle designs, safety improvements,

electric and hybrid vehicles, and alternate fuels.

HISTORICAL AND CURRENT TRENDS

The U.S. auto industry has accumulated a

monumental store of technological expertise,

experience, and research facilities in almost all

aspects of its business. In addition to the multitude of products and developments brought to

public attention, the auto industry engages in

extensive research and development activities.

Although some of these R&D activities are publicized, many are not, either for competitive reasons or because the results were negative (as is

the case for much of the research in all industries), or because the research lacks direct or

current applicability.

Some of the more important elements of the

overall technological base and the factors which

influence technology are discussed in this section, both to describe the probable vehicle and

system characteristics through 1985 and to serve

as a basis for forecasts to 2000 and beyond.

Several determining characteristics of the

U.S. automobile industry and transportation

system have been:

a high degree of standardization of vehicles

and components,

high production rates and relatively low

unit prices,

uniformity of service and repair facilities,

and fuel supply systems,

aggressive industry advertising aimed at

selling more

sumer tastes,

R&D efforts

cars and at influencing confocused on targets of high

marketability or, in recent years, high public or governmental concern,

a high degree of sales competition among

domestic firms and with imports,

a business system which is characterized by

a conservative, predictable, low-risk approach in order to maintain competitive

strength, and

a market which has traditionally been resistant to abrupt or unusual product

changes.

As a consequence of such influences, U.S.

passenger car models have evolved into remarkably similar groups of vehicles in terms of size,

performance, and component characteristics.

Competition has centered on performance, comfort, and convenience—leading to gradual, incremental increases in size and weight. Different

buyer needs and levels of affluence have been

accommodated by each manufacturer by supplying a similar range of vehicles, with prices

that were highly competitive within size and

performance categories.

Many variations of the basic four- to six-passenger car have evolved — two-passenger sports

cars, economy cars, limousines, and recre-
300 ● Changes in the Future Use and Characteristics of the Automobile Transportation System

ational vehicles—but the basic concept and mechanical components remain much the same.

The primary industry goal continues to be to

supply a range of products (at a profit) that will

meet the mobility needs of most U.S. family

units. In recent years, this range has broadened

considerably.

The size and performance characteristics of

specific models or classes of vehicles have

shown a trend of reasonably steady increases

over the past 30 years. Recently, however, emission regulations required tuning engines to

lower performance ratings, and in 1977, overall

vehicle downsizing began to reduce weight for

added fuel economy. The most popular U.S.

sizes were in the range of 115- to 118-inch

wheelbase and 3,000- to 4,500-pound curb

weight. The sales-weighted average passenger

car weight remained remarkably constant at

about 3,350-pound curb weight from the late1940’s to 1974. The sales-weighted average price

also remained essentially constant in constant

dollars over these years. 1

Figure 54 shows selected past and recent U.S.

and foreign models to illustrate the wide variety

of packaging efficiency, and the potential for

length reduction without significant change to

the length and height of the passenger compartment. Table 129 shows that over the past 25

years, the basic passenger compartment for

standard-size vehicles of U.S. manufacture

changed little in its critical dimensions, despite

the wide range and steady increase in overall

size and weight.

During this same period, an increasing number of comfort and convenience options were introduced and enthusiastically accepted. (See figure 55. ) A leveling off of purchases of some of

these options and sharp declines in some, particularly the V-8 engine, is forecast in the next

few years. Most of these devices add appreciably to fuel consumption and to manufacturers’

profits, as their percentage markup is typically

on the order of half again that of the basic vehicle.

In the mid- and late-1950’s, imports, typically

with 80- to 110-inch wheelbase and 1,500- to

‘SRI International, Potential Changes in the Future Use and

Characteristics of the Automobile, contractor report prepared for

OTA, January 1978; and supplemental submissions (hereinafter

cited as SRI Supplement).

Figure 54.—Illustrative Automobile Sizes
Ch. 10—Technology . 301

2,800-pound curb weight, began to capture an

increasing share of the market. The U.S. manufacturers’ response was to introduce a family of

compact and intermediate-sized cars, which reduced the import penetration from 10 percent to

5 percent in 3 years. However, the smaller U.S.

cars began to grow steadily in size and weight

and by 1975, the import share of the market

rose to over 18 percent—a share that they still

hold. z Imports are attractive for the feature content, efficiency of space utilization and, in many

cases, performance, handling, and subjective

views of quality and image.

During the early 1970’s, the U.S. auto manufacturers moved more strongly into overseas

manufacture and assembly for the U.S. market.

Efforts to bring captive imports into the United

States were marginally successful, and some

died out after a few years of promising performance. (See table 130. ) Under existing fueleconomy regulations, captive imports cannot be

averaged into the U.S. manufacturers’ fueleconomy figures after 1980. Thus, the extent of

overseas manufacture and assembly of cars and

parts for U.S. sale will be reduced significantly

after that date.

The foreign-based import sales in the United

States come mostly from a few large companies—typically the top five firms hold more

than 65 percent of the U.S. market.3 Most of

these firms are large, broadly based, and technologically innovative. There are also several

smaller firms that export to the United States.

They and the larger firms often try new technologies or novel vehicle layouts at a relatively

early stage of development as a market entry

tool .4

All of these major trends in the United States

auto industry occurred with little direct regulatory pressure. However, when the influences

of fuel-economy, emissions, noise, safety, and

I Motor Vehicle Manufacturers Association, ML~ tor Vehicle Facts

atzd Flgurcs 78

‘In 1976, the top five import firms were Toyata, Datsun, Volkswagen, Honda, and Fiat. They accounted for 969,587 of a total of

1,491,910 import sales, R,A. Wright, “Imported Cars Draw U.S.

Attention, ” Az/tomoti~~(~ NeuIs 1977Mark~fData Book- issue, Apr.

27, 1977, p. 70.

‘Examples ot this are the Honda stratified-charge engine

(CVCC), the Mazda rotary engine, the VW diesel engine, and the

many import f]rms otferlng the increasingly popular front-w heeidrive layout.

Figure 55.—Factory Installation of Selected Equipment

from 1956 to 1976

Percent of units

100

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

transmission,0

0

0’ 0 / \

●

/ 1

.

f

Power 1

steering /

/\ /

1

●

I●

●

I Air-conditioning

f A /

●

✏

Power brakes

●

4

i

i

regulating .

devices /

.

0 Ski d

control

devices

1 1 I I

1956 1962 1968 1974

Year

SOURCE Motor Vehicle Manufacturers Association, Motor Vehlc/e Facts and

Figures, ’78.
1950 1957 1967 1974 1975 1976 1977

119

213.2

79.9

55.4

39.1

42.2

3,570

327

427

121.5

222.7

79.5

53.9

39.6

42.5

4,389

350

454

121.5

222.7

79.5

54.5

38.9

42.5

4,318

350

454

121.5

222.7

79.5

54.7

38.5

42.6

4,361

350

454

116

212.1

76

56

39

42.2

3,771

305

350

damageability regulations are added, it is obvious that the industry and its products have

entered a period of unprecedented change.

Materials, Design,

and Manufacturing Processes

Capabilities in the field of automotive materials, design, and manufacturing processes have

reached a very high level in the automobile industry. Requirements, schedules, and future

goals are relatively clear. Production volumes

are adequate to make exploration of relatively

minor improvements worthwhile. The design

goal is the optimum combination of performance, cost, risk, and flexibility of application.

A typical car includes about 50 percent carbon steel, 15 percent cast iron, 8 percent other

iron and steel, 6 percent rubber, 2.5 percent

plastics, 2.5 percent glass, and 2.6 percent

aluminum. (See table 131. ) The primary manufacturing processes of concern are sheet-metal

stamping and welding, followed by ferrous cast-

— — — — — — —

— — — — — — 3

— — — — — — 41

ing. These are well-established processes with

little chance for innovations other than responses to the changing economics of energy

and process emission control.

Alloy steels are used in gears, bearings, forgings, and other highly stressed parts. Typically,

these parts are forged and machined, and are

continually the subject of improved manufacturing processes. “Chipless machining” concepts

Table 131 .—Automobile Material Used

in a 1974 Plymouth Valiant

Ibs/car % Wgt.

Plain carbon steel . . . . . . . . 1,630 52.4

Cast iron. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 436 14.2

Other iron & steel . . . . . . . . 254 8.2

Aluminum. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 70 2.6

Rubber . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 183 5.9

Plastics. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77 2.5

Glass. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.5

Copper/zinc/lead. . . . . . . . . 89 2.9

Soft trim . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 76 2.4

Sound deadeners . . . . . . . . 52 1.7

Misc. (fluids, paint, solder). 165 5.3

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,111 100

SOURCE SRI, p V 37
such as spline rolling and powder metal fabrication are preferred and are being expanded as fast

as their process economics become favorable.

Most aluminum parts are cast or made of

stamped sheet. Aluminum usage has risen to

about 100 pounds per car in 1977, and is expected to go to 150 pounds by 1980. Extensive

R&D on stamping and spot welding of aluminum may enable carmakers to replace more and

more steel parts with aluminum. The need for

weight reduction and the availability of cylinder

wall-coating processes (e. g., the Nikasil or the

Kawasaki exploding wire scheme) could conceivably reawaken interest in the Chevrolet

Vega die-cast aluminum-engine concept. If such

a cylinder block went into production, it would

replace heavier cast iron with another 5 0

pounds or so of aluminum per car. Also, manufacture of aluminum wheels of competitive price

and performance out of strip with a welded-in

center section has recently been accomplished,

These parts are expected to replace a fair percentage of steel wheels.

Ch, 10— Technology ● 303

Years ago, plastic parts were generally injection molded or extruded, In recent years, the use

of sheet-molding compounds has taken over the

bulk of plastic applications by weight. The use

of plastics rose to about 160 pounds per car in

1977, and is expected to go up to 240 pounds per

car by 1980, replacing heavier materials. Research into the use of plastics and integrated

foam structures for structural and body parts

may provide further possibilities in this area,

Because iron and steel are plentiful, and because many parts of cars can ‘be made of alternate materials, automotive materials are not

viewed as a problem, either from a standpoint

of availability or ability to meet performance

needs well beyond 1985.

The basic design and structure of the automobile has remained essentially unchanged for

many years. Two basic configurations have

evolved—the unit body and frame and the “conventional” separate body and frame. In the latter, the vehicle consists of a steel chassis or
304 ● Changes in the Future Use and Characteristics of the Automobile Transportation System

frame to which the suspension system, wheels,

engine, and drivetrain are attached. The vehicle

body (consisting of floor, firewall, roof, door,

fender, hood and trunk panels, along with inner

panels, support members, seats, etc., welded

and bolted into place) is then fastened to the

frame.

In the unit body and frame concept, the suspension, drivetrain, and engine are attached to

reinforced areas of the body, rather than to a

separate frame. A variation of this theme is the

stub frame concept in which the engine and

front suspension are mounted to a short or stub

frame attached to the unit body in the vicinity of

the firewall. A unit body and frame is generally

lighter and more compact, but it is much more

difficult to isolate the occupants from engine

and road noise. U.S.-manufactured pickup

trucks are all of the full-frame type. Two of the

three U.S.-built vans have unibody construction.

All of these vehicle structures offer comparable qualities of durability, cost, ease of

manufacture, marketability, etc. The level of efficiency achieved through these assembly processes allows the automobile industry to produce

an average of 25,000 to 30,000 passenger cars

per day.

Propulsion Systems

The first patented internal combustion engine

(ICE) was a two-cycle, developed by a Belgian

named Etienne Lenoir in Paris around 1860. The

four-cycle engine was developed 20 years later

by a German, Nicholas Otto. Ironically, coal

gas, which was over half hydrogen, was the primary fuel for these early engines. Petroleum

products came into play as the industry developed. s

In the early years, the ICE faced stiff competition from electric motors and steam engines.

However, because of the ICE’s higher thermal

efficiency and the ability to run long periods of

time at high speeds, it became the primary

powerplant in motor vehicles.

The ICE began as a one- or two-cylinder

machine. It was heavy, noisy, dirty, and only

semidependable. As the industry expanded and

progressed, so did the engines, into 4-, 6-, 8-,

12-, and even 16-cylinder engines. In the 1950’s,

the smooth, dependable overhead-valve V-8

engine was introduced on a wide scale and rose

in popularity quickly. In recent years, it has

been used in more than 70 percent of passenger

cars manufactured in the United States. (See

figure 55. ) However, the need to reduce fuel

consumption is expected to reverse this trend as

more smaller and lighter cars are introduced.

In the post-World War II period, engine efficiency was increased through higher compression ratios and reduced friction. Increased efficiency was accompanied by an increase in the

octane rating of motor fuel. As octane numbers

approached 100, refining costs increased much

more rapidly, and high-performance engines

were approaching the point where only marginal gains in efficiency could be achieved from

higher compression ratios. Also, anticipated increases in international shipments of refined

petroleum products acted to keep U.S. octane

levels more in line with the lower levels elsewhere in the world. As a result, octane numbers

peaked around 1970. (See figure 56, )

In response to early emission control requirements (1968), engines were detuned (e. g., retarded spark, changed valve timing, and fuel

mixture changes). In 1971, engines were modified to accept lead-free gasoline. The modifications included reducing compression ratios and

making related changes to valves and seats.

With the advent of catalytic converters in 1975,

engines were retuned to attain optimum performance and minimum fuel consumption. Now

most engines are designed to run on regulargrade (91 octane) unleaded fuel.

Drivetrain

With few exceptions, U.S. passenger cars for

the last 50 years have used a front engine with

attached transmission and rear-wheel drive. Automatic transmissions first appeared in the late

1930’s; they now comprise about 90 percent of

the market.

Early mechanical schemes, including automatic clutches and preselected gear changes,
flourished briefly, as did fluid couplings (n o

torque multiplication). However, these lost out

to the hydrokinetics torque converter combined

with two- or three-speed planetary gear set s

which are engaged by disc or band clutches .

These units are the only automatics available today in the U.S. passenger cars. Some four-speed

automatics and some automatics with torque

converter lockup were available in the 1940’s

and 1950’s, but disappeared because of cost and

lack of interest in fuel economy.

A manual transmission with a single-disc,

dry-plate clutch is the only alternative to the

automatic now available. These transmissions

are usually associated with sports, performance,

or economy cars. For U.S.-made cars, the majority of manual transmissions have been threespeed. Four-speed units are usually associated

with the large high-performance engine or with

fuel-efficient imports. In the last few years,

four-speed and even five-speed units have become available for economy cars. Essentially,

all manual and automatic transmissions are

direct drive in the final gear, although a limited

number of U.S. cars have been available with an

overdrive attached to the manual transmission.

Although overdrive had a gear ratio as low as

0.7 and provided some improvement in fuel

economy, it was never particularly popular.

U.S. cars have almost universally used a unit

rear-axle housing with a hypoid geared differential. In order to achieve improved fuel economy,

this final drive gear ratio has dropped in recent

years from the range of 3.5 to 4.o to about 2.o

for large cars.

Regulation

Traditionally, the passenger car industry has

been regulated only in the tax, antitrust, and

similar business-oriented areas. In the 1960’s, it

became apparent that automobiles and their use

were responsible for a number of serious social

problems, and a series of emission control and

safety regulations were initiated. In 1973, the oil

embargo prompted Government regulation of

fuel economy.

1

Ch. 10— Technology ●

Figure 56.—Historical Source of Octane

00

90

80

70

60

50

Quality in Commercial Gasolines

Grams of lead added

per gallon

lead addition

Refining

Premium

I I 1 I I I I

305

1930 1940 1950 1960 1970

Grams of lead added

Regular

I I 1 I I I I

1930 1940 1950 1960 1970

SOURCE S/3/, p v-10

Attempts to improve consumer protection by

controlling automobile design features have

been initiated, and appear to be at least some-
306 ● Changes in the Future Use and Characteristics of the Automobile Transportation System

what effective. Mandatory provision of product

information may also influence vehicle designs.

The major remaining area in which regulation

is likely is the limitation of places or conditions

of auto use. (See chapter 6.) Auto use restrictions are of concern technologically because

they could increase the demand for small, lowperformance, nonpolluting commuter cars.

However, specialty cars probably will not become a significant part of U.S. auto production

through the year 2000 unless specific policies encouraging such vehicles are adopted.

Other potential regulatory topics such as

recycling and materials use do not yet appear on

the horizon, although at some point they may

be of importance from the perspective of overall

national goals.

Emissions

The history of U.S. auto emissions control is

presented in table 132. The regulatory effort

progressed from a relatively modest start in

California to a major broadly based Federal effort characterized by frequent changes to the

regulated emission levels. A strong regulatory

agency evolved and industry responses soon

became a major part of their R&D activities.

Early efforts in controlling vehicle emissions

resulted in penalties in fuel economy. The oil

embargo made clear the requirement for a balanced approach to reduced emissions and improved fuel economy. Fortunately, some of the

technological responses, such as the stratifiedcharge engine or the catalytic converter, allow

substantial reductions in emissions and operation at minimum fuel consumption. Health effects, atmospheric phenomena, and other aspects of air quality are not completely understood, but air pollution is widely perceived by

the public as a health problem and a blight to

cities. Thus, vehicular emission control will undoubtedly be continued and possibly even tightened.

Currently, three products contained in the exhaust of automobiles are controlled on the basis

of grams per mile emitted. They are hydrocarbons (HC), carbon monoxide (CO), and oxides

of nitrogen (NOX

). The manufacturers must certify that their engines will meet the grams per

mile emission requirements for 50,000 miles of

vehicle travel before their vehicles can be sold to

the public.

The Federal requirements for 1979 model year

passenger cars are 1.5 grams per mile HC, 15

grams per mile CO, and 2.o grams per mile

NO,. In 1981 and beyond, the Federal requirements will be 0.4 HC, 3.4 CO, and 1.0

N OX

. California has a different, more stringent

schedule and lower allowable levels for these

emissions. (See table 132. )

Table 132.—Summary of California and Federal Passenger Vehicle Exhaust Emission Standards,

1970 to 1982 and Later

Hydrocarbons (gm/mi) Carbon monoxide (gm/mi) Oxides of nitrogen (gm/mi)

Model year California Federal California Federal California Federal

1 970a. . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2 2.2 23 23 no std. no std.

1971a. . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2 2.2 23 23 4.0 no std.

1972b. . . . . . . . . . . . 3.2 3.4 39 39 3.2 no std.

1973b. . . . . . . . . . . . 3.2 3.4 39 39 3.0 3.0

1974b. . . . . . . . . . . . 3.2 3.4 39 39 2.0 3.0

1975 . . . . . . . . . . . . .9 1.5 9 15 2.0 3.1

1976 . . . . . . . . . . . . .9 1.5 9 15 2.0 3.1

1977 . . . . . . . . . . . . .41 1.5 9 15 1.5 2.0

1978 . . . . . . . . . . . . .41 1.5 9 15 1.5 2.0

1979 . . . . . . . . . . . . .41 1.5 9 15 1.5 2.0

1980 . . . . . . . . . . . . .41 .4 9 7 1 .Oc

2.0

1981 . . . . . . . . . . . . .41 .4 3.4 3.4 1 .Oc

1.0

1982 and later . . . . .41 .4 7 3.4 .4 1.0

aTests conducted using 7 mode” test cycle a 137 second drlvln9 cYcle

bTe~ts conducted ~slng cr~.72 test cycle, a ~on~tant volume sample lfl~l”dlog Cold start FOr 1975 and later the test cycle IS a crs 75, which (ncludes cold and hot

starts

C For r-al, fornla or ly, a 100,000 m, Ie Certl fl~at Ion IS opt Ional w I t h the NOX standard at 1 5 g ml ml

SOURCE SRI p V 23
Ch. 10— Technology . 307

Several components and systems for meeting

these emission standards are currently being

used or are in the development or planning

stages. These include designs for improved combustion (e.g., electronic control of ignition timing and fuel metering, stratified-charge concepts), improved after-treatment systems (e. g.,

three-way catalyst), diesel engines, turbines,

and Stirling engines.

The detailed list of technological options is

long, and there is a high probability of meeting

regulatory goals. The present exploratory phase

of industry development will gradually shift

toward full exploitation of the optimum combinations that evolve. The manufacturers will

probably choose different combinations of options, although electronic control of the air-fuel

ratio and ignition timing will probably be virtually universal by 1981.

The announcement of a 0.4-gram-per-mile

N OY standard for California passenger cars in

1982 and beyond introduces a more difficult

technical problem than does the Federal standard of 1.0 gram per mile. To date, no concepts

have been demonstrated that can meet this level

with typical large U.S. spark-ignition engines

(SIE). Volvo, Saab, and GM have demonstrated

that they can meet this 0.4 NOX requirement

with a three-way catalyst system on four-cylinder engines. However, the ability to meet the

requirement for 50,000 miles without maintenance and under high-production conditions has

not been demonstrated.

Fuel Economy

Passenger car fuel consumption in the aggregate is measured on the basis of gasoline tax

receipts and total vehicle miles traveled (VMT).

These measures reflect a long-term decline in

fuel economy per auto from about 15.3 mpg in

1940 to 13.1 mpg in 1973. ’ The national speed

limit of 55 mph, the catalytic converter, and industry efforts to improve fuel economy resulted

in improvement to 13.5 mpg by 1975. Total fuel

consumption is a function of VMT, the way

these miles are driven (speed, acceleration, etc. ),

and the inherent efficiency (expressed as miles

per gallon) of the average vehicle. Only the latter parameter is considered in this section.

The Energy Policy and Conservation Act of

1975 mandated new car fuel economies of 20

mpg by 1980 and 27.5 mpg by 1985 on a manufacturer’s fleet average basis. ’ It seems that these

goals can be met, but the industry is concerned

about consumer acceptance of the vehicle modifications that are necessary. Prospective methods for meeting the goals include weight reduction; improved engine efficiency; reduced losses

in tires, drive line, transmission, and accessories; and improvements in aerodynamics and

overall vehicle optimization. The challenge lies

in finding the combinations that meet the public

needs of adequate performance, capacity, emissions, safety, cost, durability, and general appeal.

Safety

Regulation of motor vehicle safety above and

beyond evolutionary improvements in the design, construction, performance, and handling

of motor vehicles, is achieved primarily through

the application of the Federal Motor Vehicle

Safety Standards, issued and enforced by the

National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA). Approximately 50 safety standards are in effect, most of which apply to passenger cars. (See table 133. ) The technology required to meet many of the Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards is not particularl y complex; once it is developed and incorporated into

a vehicle, the unit cost in most cases is not great.

The regulated vehicle safety features are considered to be partially responsible for the reduction in the rate8 of highway deaths since 1966.

Another responsibility of NHTSA is the investigation of vehicle defects, often leading to

recall campaigns by the auto manufacturers. In
308 ● Changes in the Future Use and Characteristics of the Automobile Transportation System

Table 133.—Chronology of Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards and Regulations

—

Date Issued Standard

February 27,1976 . . . . . . .

SOURCE U S Department of Transportation, National Iilghway Traffic Safety Adm[rlstratlon. Traffic Safety ’76

— —

the period 1966 to 1975, 52 million vehicles were Accident avoidance includes features such as

recalled, or 43 percent of total production. better acceleration, improved brakes, improved

It is generally agreed that the majority of lighting and visibility, and improved handling.

Such features are marketable commodities, but crashes are the result of driver error or misperception. Thus far, there are few suggestions some are costly. Also, there is not clear evidence

for improving the capability and reliability of that all of these features contribute significantly

to reductions in the number of crashes. the typical driver. Regulatory efforts have

focused on improved occupant protection and, In contrast, occupant protection is effective,

to a lesser extent, accident avoidance. and the results can be evaluated. Passive
Ch. 10— Technology • 309

restraint systems are required for introduction

in the 1982-84 model years. This technology is

developed and no technical difficulties are foreseen. However, the data on the effectiveness of

these systems are still being debated and additional field experience is desirable. Also, public

acceptance of passive restraints is presently

unknown.

Most safety goals conflict with fuel-economy

goals since additional safety equipment or structure means more weight and lower fuel economy. Also, small fuel-efficient cars have the

potential for relatively higher fatality rates

because occupant protection is partly a function

of crush distance and relative vehicle weights.

Although the “no-damage” bumper was introduced under Federal Motor Vehicle Safety

Standard 215, there is a slim justification for

considering this to be a safety feature. It is now

part 581 of the 1972 Motor Vehicle Information

and Cost Savings Act. It is expected that this requirement will stay in effect and, through design

improvements, the cost and weight penalties

will be minimal.

Potential Regulatory Areas

Passenger car noise will probably become the

subject of Federal regulation in the future.

However, at present, trucks are by far the

loudest sources of highway noise and are more

appropriate targets for regulation.

So far the only significant passenger car noise

standards are those in California. The California limits are 76 dBA below 35 mph and 82 dBA

above 35 mph. Current gasoline-powered automobiles already meet the California standards.

Diesel engines are noisier than spark ignition

engines at low speeds, but at medium and high

speeds, tire and wind noise dominate for both

types of vehicles. Reduction of tire noise is the

object of much research.

In the case of radiation of electromagnetic

energy by the automobile’s ignition system, it is

reported that the industry is establishing standards of its own. 9 However, some Federal agency

may well add this to its regulatory spectrum.

Regulations designed to control corrosion

damage may evolve in the near future, particu-

‘SI<I, p L’-38

larly in view of the obvious and unnecessary

financial impacts of corrosion. Canada is working very hard on establishing a uniform code

that would limit corrosion damage.

As one avenue of engine design turns more

and more to very lean mixtures and high compression heterogeneous fuel/air charges (Ford

PROCO, Texaco TCCS), ignition systems with

even higher energy content per discharge are required. Some contemplated systems could produce a lethal shock for the unwary mechanic.

Products such as these are unlikely to be offered

in the general marketplace.

Recent information indicates that various

fluorocarbon gases react with the ozone in the

Earth’s atmosphere, with the potential for increasing the amount of sunlight (at certain

wavelengths) that reaches the Earth’s surface.

To minimize this effect, such compounds are being eliminated as propellants for spray cans.

Similar compounds (e.g., Freon R

’ 12) are the

preferred working fluid in most small refrigerative air-conditioners, including those used in

motor vehicles. All such vehicle systems are of

the nonhermetically sealed type, and thus have

a potential for leakage, either when in use or

when scrapped. As a result, such systems may

be inappropriate. An alternative approach is to

use a refrigerative cycle where the air to be

cooled is the working fluid (e. g., ROVAC or

turbo expander). These systems, at least in their

present forms, are bulkier, more complex and

more costly. As experience is gained, this situation may be greatly improved.

Under the 1972 Motor Vehicle Information

and Cost Savings Act, NHTSA must determine

crash susceptibility, crashworthiness, associated

insurance costs, and ease of diagnosis and repair

of mechanical and electrical problems. This information must then be made known to the public for each make and model of car. Although

Sweden has had most elements of such a program in effect for years, this program has yet to

be implemented in the United States. If it

should, the effects on the competitive posture of

at least some of the various domestic and import

automobiles would likely be noteworthy. Small

cars might suffer a setback in public acceptance

for safety reasons, and favorable ratings would

be crucial to the survival of smaller manufacturers.
310 . Changes in the Future Use and Characteristics of the Automobile Transportation System

AUTOMOTIVE TECHNOLOGY TO 1985

As discussed in the previous section, many of

the regulatory patterns and resulting technological responses that will appear between now and

1985 have already been established—at least in

broad terms. The auto industry has publicized a

number of alternative plans for meeting regulated economy goals, and it is generally conceded that the goals can be met from the standpoint of technology.

However, the changes involved are costly in

terms of R&D, tooling, and facilities, and are required on a schedule that is much faster than

normal industry response times. Also some of

the changes could easily affect customer acceptance of major segments of the new car offerings.

The industry feels that if sales were to drop

significantly, cash flow would be affected and

the ability to finance these massive changes

would be a problem. Accordingly, this i s

viewed by the industry as a period of high risk

in which only the technologies with a high probability of success can be relied upon.

Downsizing and Materials Substitution

The most important changes which are slated

to occur between now and 1985 center around

the requirement to meet a corporate average

fuel-economy level of 27.5 mpg and, simultaneously, the statutory emission standards of 0.41

HC, 3.4 CO, and 1.0 N OX

. The industry response has been to embark on a major program

of downsizing all cars in the product line, reducing weight by changes in materials, design, and

vehicle layout, and instituting fuel-saving features in almost every component of the vehicle.

Simultaneous developments in engine modifications and new engines and fuels are being pursued; Government incentives and assistance are

being provided in this latter area. Individual

major aspects of this overall program are discussed below.

Major gains in weight reduction are being

achieved by both downsizing and materials substitution. Materials substitution includes the use

of lightweight designs and materials, and is a

somewhat slower process than simple size

changes.

Weight reduction by downsizing generally

takes the form of closer packaging of the main

vehicle components reducing interior waste

space and, in some cases, reducing width from

three- to two-abreast seating. Some of the most

important gains are achieved by shortening the

trunk overhang and reducing styling-induced

waste space from the firewall forward. Such

major body changes are equivalent to, but more

extensive than, the major styling changes that

the industry previousl y undertook for competitive reasons. In the smallest car categories, it is

generally agreed that the most practical way to

achieve maximum efficiency of packaging

power train components is to use a front engine,

front-wheel-drive layout. Many small European

cars and several U.S. cars have adopted this

concept. Costs are slightly higher than for a

conventional rear-wheel-drive layout, but this

may now be offset by the importance of saving

weight and optimizing interior volume. As more

experience is gained, front-wheel drive will

probably be tried on new, lightweight larger

cars.

Weight reduction by materials substitution is

inextricably intertwined with considerations of

cost, performance, appearance, durability, materials compatibility, and similar parameters.

Some substitution concepts allow the redesign

of not only the principal part but also associated

parts. This effect is referred to as “cascading,”

that is, the iterative effect of weight reduction.

Other forms of weight reduction include

elimination of the spare tire as a result of improved tire durability and puncture resistance,

use of a smaller tire for the spare, reduction of

engine block casting-wall thickness, and lighter

wheels and batteries. Most of these are “oneshot” opportunities, but not all have been exploited.

Associated with downsizing is the planned

reduction in engine size, usually described a s

cubic inch displacement (CID), and reduction in

the size of all related transmission and drivetrain components. The size of these components

can be reduced to the minimum level that will

produce acceptable performance (typically zero
Ch. 10—Technology ● 3 1 1

to 60 mph acceleration times of about 16 to 18

seconds).

Engine downsizing results in improved fuel

economy because of reduced weight and because the engine is run with the throttle open

farther more of the time. This reduces throttling

loss, which is a factor affecting overall engine

efficiency. However, too small an engine for a

given car can actually result in reduced fuel

economy because much of the time, the engine

would operate in an overloaded, inefficient

power range.

Department of Transportation (DOT) studies

indicate that a 10-percent reduction in weight

with a reduction of engine size for constant acceleration performance can produce a 6.8-percent improvement in fuel economy. This, in

conjunction with other efficiency improvements

in vehicle systems, constitutes the general

strategy for meeting the fuel-economy goals set

at 27.5 mpg for 1985.

Presently, it appears that there are no major

technical problems with downsizing. However,

there are technical limitations on materials

substitution; progress in this area is being accomplished as the industry develops designs and

processes that are compatible with other manufacturing processes. The weight reduction program requires considerably greater expenditures

than the industry’s customary annual investments for redesign and retooling. Cost considerations are particularly important in the area of

materials substitution. Some substitution of

lightweight materials (plastic, aluminum, and

high-strength steels) has occurred, but only

when the cost was lower and all other capabilities of the substitute material were equivalent

to or higher than the original material. However, it is expected that greater emphasis will be

placed on weight saving, despite a slight increase in cost.

One potential drawback to the downsizing

plan is safety. It has been reported that the rate

of fatality or serious injury in a multiple-car collision is twice as high in a small car as in a large

car. In a crash, the rate and duration of deceleration of the vehicle is part of the mechanism

that produces injury. This is a function of the

distance through which the deceleration occurs,

referred to as the stopping distance or crush

distance. Smaller cars have much less crush

distance available. Theoretically, 4 feet is sufficient to decelerate a properly restrained, forward-facing human from 60 mph, so that the

person incurs little or no injury. Most small

cars today have that distance in front of the

windshield. lz However, the occupant compartment typically extends beyond the windshield.

Since the engine is incompressible, the available

crush distance is reduced further. Even in the

largest cars, the crush distance is only marginally adequate.

For small cars, additional mechanisms are required to help decelerate the occupants in highspeed barrier crashes. The only current contenders are energy-absorbing restraint systems,

such as air bags, or special belt systems that

allow the occupants to decelerate while moving

closer to the dash and firewall (thus utilizing all

of the available interior space as well as the

vehicle crush distance). At this time, this is

somewhat academic, since current barrier crash

requirements, set at 30 mph, are easily met by

large and small cars.

Another obvious drawback to downsizing is

the reduction in capacity of vehicles, and the

reduction in comfort associated with space. The

current six-passenger full-size sedan will most

likely be replaced by a car offering the same

level of comfort for only four passengers.

The reduction in engine sizes to achieve

higher fuel economy and the increased engine efficiency, achieved through operating with the

throttle closer to wide open, may reduce engine

life expectancy. In addition, increased emissions

of nitrogen oxides can occur.

The major domestic manufacturers are deeply

involved in extensive downsizing programs.

These programs are projected to reduce average

inertia weight by about 800 to 1,000 pounds

during the 1978-81 model years. A second

round of downsizing is also planned to permit

achievement of the 1985 fuel-economy standards.

The corresponding improvements in new car

1‘W’. Haddon, Jr. , “Reducing the Damage of Motor-Vehicle

Use, ” Tcc}zFr~>lt?gv RLz~IeuI, Iu]j-August ]975, p, 59,

“Data from the Insurance Institute tor Highway Satety.
312 ● Changes in the Future Use and Characteristics of the Automobile Transportation System

fleet fuel economy expected from the initial

downsizing programs are about 3 to 4 mpg.

Table 134 summarizes the potential new car

fleet average inertia weight achievable through

body redesign by 1981.

The specific plans for downsizing and for

alternatives for different conditions of timing

and emission penalties were submitted by the

U.S. manufacturers in response to a Federal inquiry. GM, for example, reduced the length—

both wheel-base and bumper-to-bumper—of its

1977 model year full-size cars to obtain weight

savings of 650 to 950 pounds.

The manufacturers’ plans have been adjusted

many times, and may well be changed again.

However, it seems likely that the response will

be along the lines illustrated by the General

Motors Alternative III approach, which consists

of:

●

●

●

weight reduction by redesign and materials

substitution;

use of some diesels; and

engine, transmission, and miscellaneous

improvements.

The general categories of changes, the projected timing, model-by-model differences, and

engine selections are given in figure 57 and

tables 135 and 136, using the GM documentation as an example. Changes will differ among

companies, and additional changes beyond

those listed may be made as 1985 approaches.

Some of these differences include:

Timing and sequence of weight reduction

redesigns by car model will differ.

Schedules for improvements in engines,

transmissions, and miscellaneous components will differ.

Ford appears to be pursuing stratifiedcharge technology rather than diesel as a

means of achieving a modest step-improvement in specific fuel consumption (SFC)13

and emissions.

Weight reductions resulting from materials

substitution are already being introduced

‘ ‘U.S. Department of Transportation, National Highway Traitic Satety Administration, Office ot Automotive Fuel Economy,

~t?t~~ titId ,4 H17/ysls for 1981-1984 Passerlger Automobile Fue/

Ero)~(lmy .St~;)/Jar& Document 2, Vol. 1, Feb. 28, 1977,

●

●

●

on a scheduled basis, and could be called

upon to provide improvements beyond

those presently planned.

A surge of interest in safety considerations

could require weight additions that are not

included in the current planning.

Further emissions control requirements

could cancel some of the anticipated gains

in engine efficiency.

Scheduling of such extensive and costly

product changes 8 years ahead of the final

goal must be considered tentative and will

be subject to many unforeseen economic,

social, and regulatory pressures.

Materials substitution is a continuing process

in the auto industry; however, special emphasis

on materials substitution is expected in the

1982-85 period. On a part by part basis, aluminum can, in some instances, save up to 50 percent of the weight of the original part. Plastics

can sometimes offer even greater savings. The

attractiveness of materials substitution lies in

the cascading effect which it produces. Reducing

the weight of a car’s body by 50 pounds through

the use of substitute plastics or aluminum can

lead to as much as 75 pounds of other savings.

This is because the chassis can then be made

lighter and a smaller engine can be chosen

(which in turn reduces the structural needs).

Table 137 illustrates some of the recent trends in

the use of materials in automobiles. Table 138

shows a hypothetical case of materials substitution illustrating the cascading effect.

Downsizing and materials substitution have

important cost implications for the auto industry. In the past, many components of the

suspension and running gear systems, accessories, and even some of the body panels remained the same during a major model change.

However, with downsizing almost all of these

components will change completely. Also, the

complete product line will have to change in less

than 8 years. This represents a difficult task

from the standpoint of required capital, design

and production, and engineering effort. The historical expenditures for new plants and equipment are shown in figure 58.

Capital requirements for vehicle downsizing

depend partly on the capacity and flexibility of
Ch. 10— Technology ● 3 1 3

Table 134.—Vehicle Weight, 1976 and 1981
314 . Changes in the Future Use and Characteristics of the Automobile Transportation System

Table 136.—General Motors Corporation Alternative Ill,

Model Year 1985 Engine Production Summary

Engine (CID) Number of cylinders Transmission Percent sales

85.0 4 A 1.83

85.0 4 M 2.08

Subtotal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.91

98.0 4 A 2.40

98.0 4 M 2.00

Subtotal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.40

151.0 6 A 24.35

151.0 6 M 2.27

Subtotal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26.62

231.0 6 A 29.55

231.0 6 M 0.21

Subtotal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29.76

301.0 8 A 9.30

305.0 8 A 3.34

350.0 (diesel) 8 A 22.67

Subtotal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35.31

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100.00

Table 137.—Materials Used in a Chevrolet Impala (pounds)

Percent

Material 1974 1977 change

Steel . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,708 2,221 – 18

Iron castings . . . . . . ... , . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 690 620 – 10

Plastics. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 138 200 + 43

Glass. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 107 115 + 7

Aluminum. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59 69 + 17

Nontire rubber. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37 35 – 5

Copper . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27 25 – 7

Zinc. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24 20 –17

Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 548 405 –26

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4,338 3,710 –14
Ch. 10— Technology ● 315
316 ● Changes in the Future Use and Characteristics of the Automobile Transportation System

Table 138.—Hypothetical Vehicle Upper and Lower Body Weight Reductions (pounds)

Original Total weight

Area and component weight Materials substituted savings

Upper body

Windshield, cowl, dash . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Center pillar. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Qtr. panel, wheel hsg. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Deck panel shelf . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Roof, rear window. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Front-end sheet metal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

90

25

124

54

66

237 }

14

5

19

7

9

43

High-strength steel

(reduced thickness)

105

55 }

Hood assembly . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Deck-lid assembly. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Aluminum

(increased thickness)

46

33

170

110

279}

Door assembly. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Aluminum on panels

Ultra-high strength steel on door guard

Beams

Thinner glass

Aluminum & high-strength steel in

selected components

27

Glass & tracking . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Interior & exterior trim & seats. . . . . . . . . .

17

42

Lower body

Underbody (rails, floor pan) . . . . . . . . . . . .

Sills. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

272

49 }

High-strength steel

Iterative reductions

62

12

Total bodyweight savings . . . . . . . . . 333

Body Chassis

Chassisgroup

Power plant . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 793

Final drive . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 188

Forestructure. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 181

Suspension . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 248

Steering system . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 76

Brakes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 199

Wheels&tires. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Exhaust system. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

244

46

1

Fuel system . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33

Bumpers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 177

Total chasis weight savings. . . . . . . .

Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 459

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4,280

109

39

47

60

21

56

52

13

5

5

7

2

6

6

122

44

59

76

23

62

68

High-strength steel 7

9

10

Aluminum&highstrength steel 22

16

6

14

5

2

1

44 5 71

48 447 52 547

880

(21%)

SOURCE SRL p V-18

the existing plants. Capital requirements for

conversion of all the necessary production facilities for a 400,000-unit-per-year capacity assembly plant have been estimated to be in the area

of $150 million to $250 million. This includes

provision for unassociated 1o-to20-percent increase in small-engine production capacity.

Capital requirements for downsizing a major

part of a manufacturer’s annual production

(e.g., 1 million cars) have been estimated to be

in the range of $4OO million to $7oO million.

This is a one-time expense, and compares with

total industry projected capital expenditures of

$21.3 billion in the 1976-80 time frame (roughly

$5 billion per year).” This adds up to about $50

billion by 1985.

“Ibid,
Ch. 10— Technology

Figure 58.—U.S. Auto Industry New Plant and Equipment Expenditures

3

2

1

0

● 3 1 7

Otto Cycle Engines

This category of engines includes the conventional spark ignition engine, which uses a homogeneous mixture of gasoline and air that is

premixed upstream of the intake valve. It also

includes prechamber and single-chamber stratified-charge concepts, and various forms of

rotary engines.

The vast majority of automotive experience

and R&D effort is associated with Otto cycle

engines. There appears to be opportunity for

improving such engines in terms of emissions,

size, weight, and specific fuel consumption. In

addition to direct engine improvements, there is

considerable potential for cleanup of exhaust

emissions downstream of the basic engine. Also,

various methods for reducing effective engine

size, such as turbocharging or the Eaton valve

selector, can help improve vehicle fue l

economy.

Most of the changes that have been made to

meet emissions and fuel-economy regulations

affect internal or external aspects of conventional engines. Examples of “internal” changes

include:

● control of ignition timing and duration,

higher energy spark,

quick warmup features,

modifications to manifold flow passages,

valve timing and overlap,

increased swirl in the combustion chamber

for better combustion,

improved mixture preparation, and

optimum mixture ratios through more accurate control systems (e. g., electronic).

The “external” approaches have included:

. exhaust gas recirculation (EGR),

. air injection into exhaust ports (air pump

system),

. catalytic converters, and

• feedback control of mixture ratio (control

system with external sensors).

Continuations, refinements, and extensions

of these concepts are proceeding in a variety of

development programs. These developments

will probably contribute significantly to meeting the emission requirements and mandated

fuel-economy goals.
318 ● Changes in the Future Use and Characteristics of the Automobile Transportation System

Catalytic Control of Exhaust Emissions

The typical emissions control system on most

domestic new cars is shown in figure 59. Its

main components are the oxidation catalyst and

supportive engine controls. The oxidation catalyst was first installed on most domestic new

cars in model year 1975. Through exhaust gas

recirculation (EGR), NOX emissions are generally controlled by diluting the incoming charge

with relatively inert exhaust gases. This added

exhaust gas reduced peak combustion temperature (a controlling factor in the reaction of nitrogen and oxygen to form NOX

).

The two-way oxidation catalyst commonly

uses platinum and palladium to oxidize hydrocarbons and carbon monoxide. It can meet the

emission standards of 0.41 gram per mile for HC

and 3.4 grams per mile for CO in almost all

cases. Oxidation catalysts generally operate at

lower temperatures and allow engine tuning for

better fuel economy than is achieved by thermal

reactors (used by at least one foreign manufacturer) that require excess oxygen.

The three-way catalyst is expected by most

industry sources to be the system chosen for

achieving 1981 Federal emission standards while

Figure 59.—Typical Emission Control System

Carburetors contain

quick pull choke and

mechanical venting

Quick I HC-CO oxidizing

heat manifold \ I

converter

Exhaust gas /

Warmup control valve

.’i’

High energy “

ignition

Case Studies of Foreign Government Policies and

Experience, Draft, March 1977,

obtaining close to maximum fuel economy. This

system is now used in some California cars.

The three-way catalyst employs platinum,

rhodium, and palladium as the active noble

metal ingredients for conversion of CO, HC,

and NOX

. Very precise air/fuel ratio control is

required, and this can be provided by carburetors or fuel injection in conjunction with an

oxygen sensor feedback control system. Optimim emission control and close to optimum

fuel economy are achieved simultaneously by

running at stoichiometric (chemically correct)

air/fuel ratio.

There are no significant technical restraints

accompanying the use of the oxidation catalyst

in meeting current emissions requirements other

than degradation of this system over time.

There is some concern that the system will not

perform well near the end of the 50,00&mile

lifecycle and that consumers may not replace

the catalysts when necessary.

Early indications that the oxidation catalyst

was a fire hazard have subsided. Also, a suspected increase of emissions of sulfur oxides

through the use of the catalytic converter has

proven unfounded.

Primary obstacles to marketing the three-way

catalyst are:

●

●

●

Rapid depletion of the available supply of

rhodium may result from using a high platinum/rhodium ratio in the construction of

the three-way catalyst and from high platinum loading per cubic inch of engine displacement. The naturally occurring platinum/rhodium mine mix of 19: I is being experimented with, although a platinum/rhodium ratio of 5:1 gives better control. The

development of base metal catalysts would

be desirable in order to relieve the demand

for noble metals.

The oxygen sensor, critical for operation of

the system, currently lasts about’ 15,000

miles, and replacement is necessary.

The cost of the complete three-way emission control system is somewhat higher

than that of the two-way catalyst. EPA’s

summary of retail sticker price increases,

derived from manufacturers’ estimates,

shows a range of $113 to $176 over 1977
Ch. 10— Technology . 319

model year base prices for the three-way

system.

Catalyst reactor systems have been applied in

new cars since 1975. Use of even more effective

catalyst-based emission control systems may

become universal in 1981.

Volvo has installed the Engelhard three-way

catalyst and electronic feedback control on

some of its 1977 cars. Ford and General Motors

have introduced this system on a limited

number of their 1978 new cars in California in

order to comply with the tighter California

emission standards and to gain operating experience prior to full-scale use. Further research

by U.S. automakers involves refinement of the

equipment for greater durability and improved

efficiency.

The prospects for development of an effective

and durable base-metal catalyst are uncertain

and no realistic time frame can be suggested.

However, this advance is important from a

standpoint of protecting against disruption or

diminution of foreign sources of noble metals.

Some small additional investment in R&D on

advanced catalyst systems will probably continue, and work on base-metal catalysts will

continue. Much of this will be funded by the

suppliers to the auto industry as well as the auto

manufacturers.

Stratified-Charge Engines

In a general sense, the term stratified charge is

applied to any engine in which combustion occurs with large variations in mixture ratio in the

overall combustion chamber. Charge stratification is a fundamental aspect of any engine

where fuel is injected directly into the combustion chamber and ignition occurs before the fuel

air mixture becomes homogeneous (as a result

of diffusion, turbulence, swirl, etc.). All diesels,

direct-injection gasoline engines (such as

PROCO, TCCS and the like), and most external

combustion engines can be included in this

category.

Another general form of charge stratification

has received much attention in recent years. It

uses two separate chambers with a rich fuel/air

ratio in one (usually a small prechamber containing the spark plug) and a very lean mixture

in the other (or main) combustion chamber. In

most such engines, a relatively homogeneous

gasoline-air mixture is fed into both chambers;

the flame from the fuel-rich prechamber ensures

ignition and relatively complete combustion of

all of the lean mixture in the main chamber.

This concept originated early in the century and

was the subject of research by British, French,

Russian, American, and other developers. The

Honda CVCC (Compound Vortex Controlled

Combustion) and current U.S. efforts are relative latecomers on the scene.

The two-chamber stratified-charge engines attempt to reduce emissions by two mechanisms.

First, the two chambers operate at mixture

ratios such that NOX formation is reduced. Second, the flame ignition of the main charge is

supposed to be vigorous enough so that the

amount of unburned hydrocarbons is reduced at

all load conditions. These effects do occur, but

the Honda CVCC currently requires an exhaust

manifold reactor to meet HC regulations and

will require EGR to meet future NOX standards.

Fuel economy should be little different from any

other engine running at the best overall economy mixture ratio (slightly below stoichiometric). Disadvantages of this system include

the higher cost of the more complex cylinder

head, prechamber, and third-valve system, and

the extra maintenance associated with these

components.

The single-chamber, direct-injection stratified-charge engines include the Ford PROCO

(Programmed Combustion), Texaco TCCS

(Texaco Controlled Combustion System), GM

DISC (Direct Injection Stratified Charge),

MAN-FM (Maschienenfabrik Augsburg—Nurnberg A. G.-Frau Meurer), and others. Several of

these can use a variety of fuels ranging from

diesel to high-octane gasoline. The MAN-FM is

generally viewed as being a spark-ignited diesel,

while the others are viewed as direct-injection

gasoline engines.

The direct-injection gasoline engines have

either very low or no octane requirement, and

generally operate at moderate compression

ratios. At 11:1 compression ratio, the PROCO

can operate on 80-octane gasoline, while the

TCCS has no octane or cetane limit.

The PROCO engine proponents feel that its

performance will equal or excel that of a typical

passenger car diesel in all important parameters,
320 . Changes in the Future Use and Characteristics of the Automobile Transportation System

including emissions, fuel economy, noise, cost,

starting, weight, size, and durability.

In the PROCO engine, intake manifold and

ports handle only air and, if EGR is used for

N OX control, exhaust gas. Therefore, the intake

manifold system need not contend with the

fuel atomization, vaporization, and distribution

problems common in other Otto engines. Fuel is

injected into the swirling air in the main combustion chamber under moderate pressure during the compression process, and injection terminates before ignition occurs. The proper timing of fuel injection and ignition events is important to satisfactory operation of the engine. The

PROCO engine utilizes either one or two spark

plugs per cylinder. An oxidation catalyst is required if HC emissions are to be less than 1 to 2

grams per mile, especially in larger cars.

The current PROCO engines operate at 11. Oto 11.5 -to-l compression ratio, and EGR of up

to 25 percent will be required to meet future

N OX limits. The engine was originally developed to run unthrottled with output controlled

by the amount of fuel injected, as in a diesel.

However, to meet the HC requirements, a modest amount of throttling is required at part load

and idle.

Physically, the TCCS and DISC engines are

very similar to the PROCO, differing mainly in

details of fuel injection timing and pattern, and

in combustion chamber geometry and air flow

patterns. The various types of direct-injection

stratified-charge engines offer considerable

potential for simultaneously achieving low

emissions, good fuel economy, and tolerance

for a wide range of fuels. Particulate and odor

problems, however, may be similar to those of

current diesels.

Honda has been successful in marketing their

stratified-charge engine (the CVCC). No other

manufacturers have chosen to produce the dualchamber stratified-charge engine, although

Honda has sold the rights to at least one U.S.

manufacturer.

Domestic car companies are investing primarily in the single-chamber direct-injection version. However, investment levels are unknown

and production and marketing of these engines

is not expected until the mid-1980’s,

Valve Selector

Eaton Corporation recently developed a system for keeping selected valves closed in an internal combustion engine, while the rest of the

engine continues to operate normally. The

result is a reduction from six-cylinder operation

to five, four, or three cylinders, depending on

the power requirements. A solenoid-controlled

device is added to the rocker arms of the selected

valves and, upon activation, these valves stay

closed. Keeping the intake and exhaust valves

closed on one cylinder means that the air in the

cylinder is repeatedly compressed and expanded

with much less loss in energy. An improvement

in fuel economy of about 10 percent is typical,

although this varies for different engine/vehicle

combinations.

The second part of the system is an electronic

control that selects the number of cylinders to be

deactivated depending on speed and load. Transition from operation of all cylinders to half the

number can be quite smooth, and engine

roughness or wear is not a problem.

This system has been tested on a variety of

four-, six-, and eight-cylinder engines. It is currently scheduled to be introduced in 1980 on a

Ford V-8 engine.

Turbocharging

Turbocharging is a concept in which the

energy in the exhaust of an internal combustion

engine is used to compress the incoming air or

fuel/air mixture. Turbochargers for passenger

car use are typically small high-speed devices

(up to 140,000 RPM) with a centrifugal compressor and radial inflow turbine mounted on a

common shaft. With the engine throttle wide

open, most turbos will supply a continually increasing amount of air until the engine fails. To

avoid this, an automatic waste gate control is

usually provided to bypass some of the exhaust

around the turbine.

In theory, turbochargers should provide an

improvement in fuel economy (and sometimes

in emission control) through a variety of mechanisms. The fundamental engine cycle efficiency

is improved, and mixing and vaporization of the

incoming fuel/air charge is usually improved.

Hydrocarbons and carbon monoxide in the exhaust are usually more fully consumed. Finally,
Ch. 10—Technology ● 3 2 1

a smaller engine may be used, so that fuel

economy is better (more time is spent closer to

wide-open throttle, thus reducing throttling

losses); maximum performance is retained because the turbo becomes more effective at the

higher RPM. In practice to date, however, only

the last factor has proved significant.

A number of problems accompany the use of

turbocharging and the several previous attempts

by U.S. manufacturers usually lasted for only a

few years. Cost is considerably higher than for

conventional engines (about $550 for the 1978

Buick). Mechanical complexity and related

maintenance, service, and repair problems are

much greater. Also, because the indicated mean

effected pressure is increased and the incoming

charge is heated by being compressed, it was

necessary to add a safety system to the 1978 turbocharged Buick. This system detects detonation and automatically retards the ignition timing. (One result is that trailer towing is specificall y not recommended. )

There are several alternative solutions to the

detonation problem, some of which have been

developed for trucks and racing cars. These

solutions include aftercooling and antidetonant

injection, as well as a more responsive waste

gate control. There are over 20 factory-type

passenger car turbo projects in progress worldwide, although most are aimed at the performance image rather than at fuel economy.

Turbocharging and the Eaton valve selector

are almost parallel concepts for achieving

“small” engine fuel ecomomy while retaining

full power for the occasional times when it is

needed. In terms of simplicity and cost the valve

selector should be superior, but consumer preference for the turbo/racing image may prove to

be important. If consumer acceptance is favorable, turbocharging can be added to almost any

Otto cycle or diesel engine, although increased

structural strength of the engine may be required in some cases.

Rotary Engines

Over the last 40 to 50 years, a wide variety of

rotary engines have been conceived or developed to various stages. The Wankel is the most

prominent of these, although it is not generally

realized that the engine that was finally produced is only 1 of over 130 significantly different configurations explored by the inventor.

The currently produced Wankel consists of an

approximately triangular rotor, turning inside

an epitrochoidal housing. The housing is cooled

by water (or air) and the rotor is cooled by the

engine oil. The fuel/air mixture enters and exits

through ports (in the periphery of the housing

and/or the end plates) as they are uncovered by

the rotor.

The practical geometry of the system prevents

high compression ratios (a two-stage version

was required to reach diesel compression ratios), and the combustion chamber is characterized by high surface-to-volume ratios. The tips

and sides of the rotor must seal against the housing and end plates, and these strip-seals proved

to be a difficult design and development problem. The seals must slip over the port openings

as in a two-cycle engine, and the intake and exhaust port areas are at considerably different

temperatures, thus leading to thermal distortions. All of these features led to serious reliability and life problems with the early Mazda

Wankels; however, the engine has gradually

evolved into a reasonably acceptable form.

The basic Wankel configuration provides

high specific output (in terms of both weight and

volume) and can be “stacked” in any number of

modules on the crankshaft. It is extremely

smooth but somewhat 1ower in torque than a

comparable reciprocating engine at low RPM.

Wear of the seals is a serious problem unless

exotic and costly combinations of materials are

used. Early engines required the use of oil mixed

in the fuel (or injected separately) to minimize

the seal wear.

Because of the low compression ratio and

built-in EGR (blowby), NO. emissions from a

Wankel are usually low. However, the large

surface-to-volume ratios and corners in the

combustion chamber shape result in higher hydrocarbon emissions than from a reciprocating

engine.

Wankels have been produced commercially

by NSU and Mazda for passenger cars, and by

other companies as motorcycle, snowmobile,

outboard, diesel, and various other engines.

GM purchased the rights to produce Wankels

for $5o million but, shortly before reaching production, returned the project to R&D status.

GM later terminated work on the Wankel
322 ● Changes in the Future Use and Characteristics of the Automobile Transportation System

engine. The combination of cost, durability,

emissions, and fuel consumption of the Wankel

does not appear to be sufficiently competitive

with that of a comparably performing reciprocating engine. However, a variety of companies

are continuing experimentation on Wankels.

Diesel Engines

The diesel is a form of stratified-charge internal combustion engine that uses the heat of compression for the ignition of distillate fuel. Fuel

and air are not premixed outside the cylinder as

in carbureted gasoline engines; instead, air is

drawn into the cylinder through an unthrottled

intake manifold and compressed. Fuel is separately injected near the top of the piston’s compression stroke and burns with the air already in

the cylinder. Ignition from spark plugs is not required but is being considered for advanced engines as a means of obtaining more accurate

timing of the ignition point.

Diesel engine combustion systems are normally divided into two categories—direct injection, and precombustion or indirect injection.

The direct-injection engine has a single combustion chamber, usually formed in the piston

crown. Fuel is injected directly into the space

above the piston. The injection process is considered a critical component of the direct-injection system since it must optimize fuel atomization and penetration into the air in the combustion chamber. Air utilization and engine performance are improved by creating air swirl in

the combustion chamber. This is accomplished

by using directional intake ports and by proper

shaping of the piston crown. Combustion begins before the piston reaches the top of the

compression stroke (top dead center) and causes

relatively high gas temperature and pressure

rises.

The design of the indirect-injection diesel includes a prechamber, which connects to the

main chamber by means of an orifice. All of the

fuel is injected into the prechamber. Two types

of prechamber designs—quiescent and swirl—

are in automotive use. The quiescent indirectinjection engines are designed for prechamberto-total-combustion-chamber volume ratios of 1

to 4. (Combustion chamber volume is measured

with the piston at the top dead center. )

The swirl chamber employs a larger volume

ratio (up to one-half) and the prechamber is

characterized by a spherical or near-spherical

design. The throat is arranged to permit a fast

air swirl or vortex to be formed in the prechamber, thus promoting rapid burning of the entire

charge. Heat release rates are lower with this

design and rates of pressure rise are reduced,

lowering noise and structural requirements.

Traditionally, passenger car diesel engines

have demonstrated advantages in fuel economy.

However, these same vehicles have suffered

from excessive weight, poor cold-starting ability, high cost, odor, smoke, need for frequent

oil changes, poor acceleration, high noise, and

high emissions of particulate and nitrogen oxides. Research during the past few years has

concentrated on trying to find ways of eliminating these disadvantages.

Fuel Economy

Direct-injection diesels generally give about 5

to 10 percent better fuel economy than the indirect-injection types. However, at the present

state of combustion technology, indirect-injection diesels are required for passenger car engines in order to reduce loads on the rods and

crank, allow high RPM, and improve starting.

The fuel-economy advantage of a diesel over

a comparable gasoline engine varies according

to the operating mode. In steady, high-speed

operation on the open road, the diesel has only a

small advantage. In city traffic the efficiency of

the diesel may be as much as 40 percent greater

than the gasoline engine. NHTSA estimates that

for average driving conditions, the diesel offers

a 25-percent fuel-economy advantage on a

miles-per-gallon basis.15 A part of this advantage stems from the fact that diesel fuel contains

about 10 percent more energy per gallon than

gasoline. Thus, on a “per-barrel-of-crude-oil”

basis, the diesel engine is about 15 percent more

efficient than a gasoline engine. Features—such

as valve selectors, electronic fuel metering, and

turbocharging—could be added to improve the

specific fuel consumption of gasoline engines,

but some of these features (e.g. turbocharging)

could also be added to diesels and allow them to

ISspecific fuel consumption is a measure of the efficiency Of an

engine, expressed in pounds of fuel consumed per horsepowerhour (lb/hp-hr).
Ch 10—Technology ● 323

retain their relative advantage. On the whole,

the diesel—due to its higher

tie—would remain more fuel

comparable gasoline engine.

Durability

compression raefficient than a

Heavy truck engines achieve excellent durability (e.g., 500,000 miles before overhaul) by a

combination of conservative design, best possible materials and components, heavy construction, careful maintenance, and very consistent

and favorable operating conditions. Also, they

operate at relatively low compression ratios

compared to the lightweight, high-speed passenger car diesel engines (i. e., 13.5 to 18 versus 21

to 23.5). Average U.S. large gasoline engines

last well over 100,000 miles, but small engines

and imports tend to require overhaul appreciably earlier and to be much more variable in

this regard.

Popular opinion, encouraged in part by optimistic manufacturers, tends to ascribe to a

passenger car diesel all of the virtues that are

found in truck and industrial engines, However,

this is not necessarily true.

The recently introduced passenger car diesels

(GM and VW) are conversions to diesel from a

production gasoline engine. “Simple conversion” of the GM 350 CID gasoline engine to

diesel required replacement of the cast iron

crankshaft with a forged version employing

larger bearings, but durability is still a serious

concern. The only inherent durability factor

favoring a “converted” diesel is that the incoming charge of air that is compressed prior to ignition has no fuel in it and, therefore, does not

wash the thin film of lubricant from the cylinder

walls. Also, corrosiveness of the exhaust and

crankcase gases may well be different, but not

necessarily better.

As a result, the durability of the “converted”

diesels (GM and VW) could be less than their

basic gasoline engine counterparts initially.

However, their durability will probably be

raised to the level required for public acceptance. Also, from the public’s point of view,

engine durability is frequently judged on accessories rather than fundamental factors affecting

the combustion process. Improvements in these

accessory features depend upon the manufacturer’s cost estimates and assessment of market

potential, rather than technological feasibility.

Weight

“Converted” diesel engines weigh more than

the engine from which they are derived (111

pounds more in the case of the Oldsmobile 35o

CID design). Future plans for weight saving in

conventional engines by using thinner walled

castings wiIl not be possible for the diesel version. Thus, future savings of 5 to 15 percent in

the total engine weight must be given up for

diesels. In addition, there are vehicle weight increases associated with the diesel; these include

dual batteries, and increased cooling capability.

Emissions

Passenger cars powered by modern diesel

engines meet all HC and CO emissions standards without after-treatment. NOX emissions,

however, can present problems, depending on

the stringency of the standards. Two nonregulated pollutants—particulates and aldehydes—

also are found in diesel exhaust in much greater

concentrations than in spark-ignition engine exhaust.

Formation of nitric oxide is dependent on the

duration and temperature of the combustion

process. Reducing peak cycle temperatures during the diesel’s combustion phase will reduce the

NOX levels. Current design concepts that reduce

N OX formation include reduced compression

ratio, fuel injection modifications, water injection, and exhaust gas recirculation. The use of

EGR has some disadvantages. The recirculation

of exhaust gases through the cylinders also recirculates particulate matter and thereby increases

engine wear. The EGR also tends to cause an increase in hydrocarbons.

It appears that diesel engines perform better

than gasoline-powered engines in terms of

degradation of emissions of the presently regulated pollutants. In tests of up to 80,000 miles,

the rate of increase of emissions from diesel

engines has been shown to be 2 to 3 times lower

than those of a comparable gasoline-powered

engine.]’ However, diesels may encounter problems with pollutants that are now unregulated.

l,p~iv~t~ ~O~munication by contractor with Dr. Hergenrath,

Transportation Systems Center, Cambridge, Mass.
324 ● Changes in the Future Use and Characteristics of the Automobile Transportation System

EPA is conducting research on the potential carcinogenic properties of the particulate and

aldehydes in diesel exhaust. Preliminary tests indicate that the particulate are mutagenic. Further tests to determine if, and to what degree,

diesel exhaust is carcinogenic are in progress. ”

In summary, it may be difficult for diesel

engines, especially large-displacement engines,

to meet the 1981 Federal NOX standard of 1.0

gram per mile or the California standard of 0.4

gram per mile. A further difficulty is meeting

the particulate emissions standard recently proposed by EPA. However, small diesels have

demonstrated the ability to meet both these requirements. The interest in diesels by foreign

and domestic manufacturers indicates some

confidence that future diesels will have satisfactory emission characteristics and offer fuel savings over the gasoline engine.

Cold Starting

Most high-speed diesels currently used in

automobiles require starting aids to preheat the

air in the precombustion chamber. Current

diesel designs combat cold weather starting difficulties by several means: designing passenger

car diesels for a higher compression ratio than

large truck engines; using glow plugs to preheat

the air; using block heaters; and adjusting properties of the diesel fuel.

The minimum compression ratio of diesel

engines depends in part on the cetane number of

the fuel used. Swirl prechamber design is usually used for high-compression, high-speed, automobile engines.

From a fuel-economy standpoint, the optimum compression ratio for diesel engines is

around 12 to 14 to 1; piston ring friction becomes more important than increased cycle efficiency above this range. Passenger car engines

suffer from this loss in efficiency, plus decreased

durability and greater noise, in order to meet

cold-starting and high RPM requirements.

Noise

Diesel-powered vehicles produce noticeably

higher noise levels during idle than carbureted

vehicles. At road speed, tire noise is predomiI -Teleph LJne ‘C)nversdtl(ln with Richarcl Brlcelanci, U. S. Env lr~~nmenta] Prt>tectlon Agency, Apr. 11, 1978.

nant. In general, the noise transmitted by the

diesel engine to the passenger compartment can

be attenuated through the use of proper acoustical materials.

Time Frame

Presently announced plans for diesel engine

penetration of the U.S. market include the following:

GM introduced a 350-CID diesel for the

Oldsmobile, for the Cadillac Seville, and

for some light trucks in 1978; GM may supply diesels for a greater portion of its fleet

later.

VW diesel Rabbits and Dashers have been

available in the United States since model

year 1977. The Mercedes 240D, Mercedes

300D, and Peugeot 504 diesel are also

available.

In addition to the above companies,

various other European and Japanese firms

now produce or are planning production of

diesel passenger cars; any or all of these

could be brought to the U.S. market. These

companies include Opel (GM), Ford of

England, British-Leyland Motor Company,

Chrysler-France, Nissan, Fiat, Citroen, and

Volvo (using a VW engine).

1978 production rates for both GM and

VW were planned to be 100,000-plus. GM’s

actual production was approximately

65,000; the planned level of production for

1979 is 190,000 units.

VW will probably allocate its diesel cars

worldwide. Both VW and GM will use considerable caution in testing consumer acceptance

and checking for unforeseen field problems.

However, both companies can expand production quite rapidly, since the engines in question

are basically gasoline engines currently being

made on existing, high-capacity production

lines. Peugeot and other small producers are

largely locked into existing specialized diesel

production lines of low or modest capacity. The

need to build new plants will seriously constrain

entry into the field and/or expansion by many

of the potential diesel-engine passenger car suppliers.

The technology of passenger car diesels will

have a significant effect on their acceptance, as
Ch.. 10—Technology ● 325

well as on their achieved fuel economy. Other

problems with diesels so far have included parts

availability, repair infrastructure, and unfamiliarity on the part of do-it-yourself mechanics.

Investment and Costs

Depending on the extent of retooling necessary, the capital cost necessary to convert a

spark-ignition engine assembly plant to the production of diesels could range from $30 million

to $150 million for a 400,000-unit capacity line.

Assuming annual new car sales to be 11.8 million in 1985 with 10-percent diesel penetration,

total capital expenditures could range from $90

million to $440 million.

The added cost (price premium) of diesel cars

and multipurpose vehicles in 1977 ranged from

about $195 to $2,200. The GM premium was

$740 or $850, depending on the engine it replaced. A major portion of the additional cost

of the diesel is for the fuel injection system. The

low VW price differential of $195 is somewhat

misleading, since their gasoline engine has fuel

injection, whereas the GM gasoline counterpart

does not.

In addition to the direct-injection and indirect-injection engines whose differences have

been discussed, several other types of diesels are

in use or under development. The most common

of these is the two-stroke diesel engine. This version is lighter than a comparable four-stroke

engine, but is generally slightly lower in fuel

economy and emits more pollutants. It is quite

competitive in heavy trucks and bus operations,

but probably would not be competitive in a

passenger car application.

A form of diesel that was recently developed

for a British tank engine employs what are

essentially two Wankel engines in series. The

first partially compresses the incoming charge of

air, and the second completes the compression

and handles the combustion. Other promising

variations in diesel technology, particularly the

adiabatic diesel (and additions to it such as turbocompounding and bottoming cycle) are discussed later in this chapter.

Drivetrain

A major factor in achieving better fuel

economy is the ability to operate an engine at

the combinations of throttle position and RPM

where the lowest possible values of specific fuel

consumption can be achieved. This is approximated by changing transmission gear ratios

under varying conditions of vehicle acceleration

and speed. In the case of an automatic transmission, the torque converter smooths the transition between gear ratios and supplies increased

torque to the wheels at low engine speeds, but

with some loss of power.

Typical power losses in the automatic transmission, drive line, differential, and rear axle

for a full-size car vary with speed, approximately as shown in table 139. Only 3 to 4 percent of

these losses are in the axle, differential, and

drive line. Improvements in this area are generally limited to greater precision in manufacturing processes and improvements in lubrication.

Table 139.—Drivetrain Losses

Drivetrain loss

Total wheel

Speed (mph) horsepower Hp 0/0

20. . . . . . . . . . 5.0 1.24 25

40. . . . . . . . . . 14.4 3.17 22

60. . . . . . . . . . 31.7 5.09 16

80. . . . . . . . . . 60.0 7.99 13

SOURCE Environmental Protect Ion Agency Factors A ffecf[ng Fue/ Economy,

May 1976

Transmissions, like engines, have a variety of

basic types. These may be categorized as hydrokinetics (torque converter), standard gear change

(“stick shift”), hydrostatic (e.g., Orshansky or

Sunstrand Responder), traction (e.g., GM Toric, Tracer, or Forster), variable sheave (e. g.,

“Vee” belt), clutched gear sets, and oscillatory.

Each of these transmission types has a variety of

possible configurations—for example, the hydrokinetics transmission is currently available

with three, four, or five elements, torque multiplications from 2:1 to 6:1, all fixed or some

movable vanes, and lockup features. Many of

these transmissions are used in combination

with each other and with associated clutches,

dual path schemes, and retarders. For example,

the conventional passenger car “automatic” uses

a torque converter plus clutched gear sets. Control systems include mechanical, hydraulic, and

electronic types. Improved automatics with a

lockup clutch, tighter tolerance torque con-
326 ● Changes in the Future Use and Characteristics of the Automobile Transportation System

verter, and a wide ratio, four-speed gear set are

considered by the auto industry to be the most

likely candidates for providing the desired nearterm improvements in efficiency. Because of

their better internal efficiency, the lockup feature and gear ratios that optimize the engine/vehicle match, fuel-economy improvements up to 18-plus percent over a present day

3-speed automatic have been obtained in experimental vehicles. (table 140).

Table 140.—Hydrokinetic Transmission

Improvements

Percent

Transmission type improvement

3-speed automatic with low slip torque

converter . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-3

3-speed wide ratio automatic. . . . . . . . . . . 3-6

3-speed automatic with TCLU’ . . . . . . . . . 3-6

3-speed wide ratio automatic with TCLU . 8-13

4-speed automatic with TCLU ... , , . . . . . 8-13

4-speed wide ratio automatic with TCLU . 8-18

A typical, present-day passenger car automatic contains a three-element, fixed-vane

torque converter of about 2 to 1 multiplication

and a three-speed planetary gearbox with hydraulic control. Efficiency of the torque converter ranges from zero at stall to 91 percent;

most driving occurs in the 80 to 90 percent

region. Typical efficiencies of the various transmission types (table 141) show there is interest

in the efficiency of the newer traction, sheave,

and oscillatory types —as well as in their continuously variable feature.

Other less obvious (but still worthwhile) improvements which will be made in conventional

automatic transmissions include reduced clearance in the torque converter, lower viscosity oil,

reduced band and clutch drag, and reduced oil

pump power.

Ford is planning to introduce a four-speed

automatic transmission in the early 1980’s. The

capital costs involved in converting to a fourspeed transmission will be an added financial

burden to the auto manufacturers, but will not

be as serious as engine changes.

Capital requirements for producing threeand four-speed automatic transmissions with

torque converter lockup (TCLU) features in a

500,000-unit facility are estimated by industry

to be:

● three-speed automatic with TCLU—$5 million to $10 million, and

● four-speed automatic with TCLU—$150

million to $200 million. 18

Both of these values are believed to be based

on making the changes with minimal disturbance of existing production (which typically

operates on a three-shift basis). The conversion

to the three-speed TCLU would consist of minor

changes to the existing plant; however, the

change to four-speed TCLU would probably require installation of an almost parallel facility

beside the existing plant. (A totally new plant

would cost on the order of $35o million. ) Total

capacity (and/or productivity) of such a facility

would probably be increased significantly.

Table 141 .—Current and Potential Transmission Efficiencies

Transmission element Efficiency’
Accessories and Accessory Drives

Power-driven systems (fan, water pump,

alternator, oil pump) and options such as airconditioning have traditionally consumed a significant amount of engine power, as shown in

figure 60. Large percentage reductions in the

power required can be achieved for the fan and

air-conditioner through the use of effective demand drive units. Most power-steering systems have recently been converted to a type that

requires very little power, except when turning.

Demand drive systems are already on the

market, but have received only limited acceptance because of the prior unimportance of fuel

economy. Systems likely to see widespread

future use include:

●

●

●

electric motor drive for cooling fans;

air-conditioner drive and control system

that fully disconnects except when cooling

is required (already widely used); and

speed-limiting drive for water pump, alternator, and oil pump.

Full utilization of these systems should provide an overall fuel-economy improvement of

about 4 percent.

Electronics

Electronic controls for fuel metering and ignition, as well as for a number of other vehicle

systems, have become a subject of importance

to the automotive and electronics industries.

Emission control, fuel economy, safety, comfort, convenience, and maintainability will all

benefit from the rapidly evolving technology.

The list of present and potentially different

types of electronics systems for passenger cars

numbers over 50. The electronics industry estimates that at least 6 million units of electronic

engine control systems will be used on 1981

‘Vt)emand drive units are components that allow their respective

accessories to “free-wheel” or to draw essentially no power when

they are not needed. For example, a thermostatically controlled

fan could probably be cut out of the system except during long

periods ot idling or pulllng heavy loads In hot weather. This

feature IS already In use by some foreign manufacturers. All U, S.-

manutactured cars with a ir-condltlorrlng have used a viscous drive

fan which limits the maximum power absorbed as engine speed increases.

Ch. 10— Technology

Figure 60.—Accessory Horsepower

● 3 2 7

Alternator

model cars. These include the ignition, fuel

metering, EGR, and valve selector functions

handled by a central microprocessor, Additional capabilities will be built into the microprocessors and, by 1985, as many as a dozen

different systems may be controlled by the central unit. As confidence and interaction between

the two industries grows, the number of electronics applications will probably increase.
328 . Changes in the Future Use and Characteristics of the Automobile Transportation System

However, there is continued competition between electronic and the more conventional mechanical/hydraulic controls. Considerable improvement in these latter systems could result

from the stimulus of such competition, possibly

reducing the magnitude of the trend to electronics,

Multiplexing or other sophisticated wiring

concepts may be considered as a subset of automotive electronics. Such schemes promise some

reduction in vehicle assembly cost and in the use

of copper, with the benefit of improved recyclability. It is probable that such systems will not

be introduced on a production basis until well

after a central microprocessor comes into general use,

Aerodynamic Drag and Friction

The importance of the effects of rolling friction and aerodynamic drag on required engine

power are shown in figure 61. Rolling friction is

almost entirely a result of energy loss due to

deformation of the tires as they contact the

roadway. Rolling friction increases almost linearly with speed. Radial tires can have up to 20

percent less rolling resistance than bias-belted

tires and 40 percent less resistance than plain

bias tires, producing a fuel-economy improvement of up to 3 percent. Higher inflation pressures also reduce rolling resistance, but require

suspension changes and affect tire-roadway

adhesion.

Aerodynamic drag increases with speed much

more rapidly than does rolling resistance (i. e.,

as the square of velocity). At 55 mph, it absorbs

about 40 percent of engine power. Drag is also a

direct function of vehicle size and shape (more

specifically of frontal area and the drag coefficient). Minimum frontal area is essentially fixed

by the requirements of passenger compartment

size plus the safety-related lateral crush distance-

. Automobile height is remarkably standard; heights are within 2 inches for a Ford LTD

and an Austin Mini or Honda Civic. Typical

frontal areas for current U.S. passenger cars are

shown in table 142.

Drag coefficients for present day production

cars range from about 0.50 to 0.325, averaging

about 0.45. An experimental low-drag model

Figure 61 .—Effect of Speed on Power

Requirements (Standard-size car)

60 

50

40

30

20

10

Total

engine hp

Accessories

Drivetrain

20

SOURCE

30 40 50 60 70

Speed--mph

Jet Propulsion Laboratories, Shou/d We Have A

New Engtne~, An Automobile Power Systems

Evaluation, August 1975

has reached about 0.16. 20 A 25-percent reduction in drag may be expected to improve fuel

economy over the composite driving cycle by

about 5 percent .21 Theoretically, fuel savings

associated with drag reduction are on the order

of 10 to 15 percent over the driving cycle, with

greater savings at steady high speeds. Some

reduction in drag can be achieved through

changes in body styling, but perhaps at the expense of reduced volume-efficiency compared to

present “boxy” body designs. Further reduction

of drag could be accomplished by elimination or

redesign of features such as outside mirrors, rain

gutters, roll-down windows, and wheel covers.

z~rhe Pinlnfarina test model shown in the photograph, and the

Mercedes C 111/3 have demonstrated a drag coefficient of .16.

21 Jet propulsion Laboratov, California Institute of Technology,

A Study o) Autornotiz~e Aerodynamic Drag, prepared for U.S.

Department of Transportation, Office of the Secretaryr Report

No, DOT-TSC-OST-75-28 (Pasadena, Calif.: Jet Propulsion Lab),

September 1%’5.
Ch. 10— Technology ● 3 2 9

Aerodynamic body model by Pinninfarina

Photo Credf I A u tomo tJve PJe as

Table 142. —Frontal Area for Typical Passenger Cars

Curb weight Frontal area

(pounds) (square feet)

Subcompact . . . . . 2,500 17.5

Compact . . . . . . . . 3,200 19.0

Standard . . . . . . . . 4,400 21.5

Luxury . . . . . . . . . . 5,300 22.5

Safety Technology

There are many technological approaches to

vehicles and roadways that can be applied to

both crash severity reduction and crash avoidance. The technologies discussed in this section

(near-term) are those which are likely to be implemented by 1985.

Vehicles

The U.S. Department of Transportation recently issued a safety plan in which proposed

revisions of existing standards and new areas of

rulemaking were identified. Table 143 shows

those standards applicable to the 1985 time

period.

All of these proposed requirements have been

under consideration for years and should not require any major new technological achievements. The most significant feature is the extension of passenger car standards to light trucks

and multipurpose vehicles. Other important

revisions are in upgrading the quality of seat

belts (FMVSS 208), upgrading side door

strength (FMVSS 214), improving rear vision

(FMVSS 111), and improving direct fields of

view (new standard). However, the major piece

of safety equipment to be added in the near-term

is the passive restraint system (FMVSS 208), required in the 1982 model year for large cars and

for all cars by the 1984 model year.

The ongoing evaluation of the safety standards should provide important information on

the regulatory process and on technologies for

the future .22 This evaluation focuses on whether

vehicles are performing in accordance with the

standards and whether the standards, as written, are actually addressing the probIem for

which they were intended.

‘

2 Discussion with U.S. Department of Transportatl~Jn, Oftice ot

Pro~ram Evaluation, April 1978.

41.(17 I () - 7 i - .2’?
330 ● Changes in the Future Use and Characteristics of the Automobile Transportation System

Table 143.—Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards, Near-Term Improvements

Under Consideration for Passenger Vehicles

Inclusion of Upgrading of

Current standards Iight trucks’ standard

FMVSS No. 201 —Occupant Protection in Interior

impact. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

FMVSS No. 2034—impact Protection for the

Driver from the Steering Control Systems . . . . .

FMVSS No. 204—Steering Control Rearward

Displacement. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

FMVSS No. 208—Occupant Crash Protection. . . .

FMVSS No. 213—Child Restraint Systems . . . . . .

FMVSS No. 214—Side Door Strength. . . . . . . . . . .

FMVSS No. 101 —Control Location, Identification,

and Illumination. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

FMVSS No. 105—Hydraulic Service Brake,

Emergency Brake, and Parking Brake Systems.

FMVSS No. 108—Lamps, Reflective Devices, and

Associated Equipment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

FMVSS No. 109—New Pneumatic Tires. . . . . . . . .

FMVSS No. 11 1—Rearview Mirrors. . . . . . . . . . . . .

FMVSS No. 114—Theft Protection . . . . . . . . . . . . .

FMVSS No. 115—Vehicle Identification. . . . . . . . .

New proposed standards’

Exterior protrusions, (minimize)

Truck Rear Underride Guard (heavy trucks)

Low Tire Pressure Warning

Direct Fields of View

Handling and Stability performance

requirements

Brake System Inspectability

Speedometers/Odometers (limit speed indication)

xx

xx

xx

xx

xx

xx

XXc

XXC

(d)

x

xx

x

x

X b

x

x

x

x

x

x

x

x

Register 43. pp 11 lCO1 1107 -

Restraint Systems

The air cushion restraint system (ACRS), or

air bag, was first conceived of in the 1950’s and

the basic principles are unchanged today. A sensor mechanism, activated by a crash (usually a

barrier-equivalent crash of 12 mph or greater)

activates an inflator (either compressed gas or a

chemical gas generator). This fills a nylon bag in

the area in front of the driver and front-seat

passengers. The driver bag is housed in the

steering wheel hub. The passenger bag is in the

area typically used for a glove compartment

(figure 62).

Technically, the system is extremely reliable.

Operationally, it provides good protection in

front-end collisions, which account for more

than 50 percent of vehicle occupant fatalities.

The probability of inadvertent inflation of the

ACRS is virtually nil; experiments have demonstrated that if it does occur, no real problems,

such as loss of control of the vehicle, are likely

to occur.23 It is possible to utilize air bag technology for protection of other than front-seat

vehicle occupants, although that is clearly the

most effective use of the system.

Safety belts come in a variety of configurations—lap belts, three-point lap/torso belts,

torso belt with knee bolster, and the four-point

“Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation, Automobile Crash Protection, Report No. 95-481, Oct. 7, 1977.
Ch. 10— Technology ● 331

Figure 62.—Schematic of Air-Cushioned Restraint System

Driver

cushion

and

inflator

assembly

I

I

I

for passengers

SOURCE Allstate Insurance Company, Autornotwe Air Bags C?uesf/ons and Answers, June 1977

lap/shoulder harness. Several effectiveness enhancement features are also possible. These include pretensioning devices, energy-absorbing

systems, inflatable belts, and force-limiting

belts. Also there has been a recent surge of interest in passive belts, which automatically go

into place after the occupant is seated.

Three-point safety belts provide a leveI of

protection almost

ACRS. In general,

rent air bag alone

or side collisions.

equivalent to that of the

they are better than the curin multiple impact, rollover,

The ACRS with the lap belt

offers better high-speed protection. (See table

144. ) However, there is still. a possibility that

many individuals will disconnect the passive

belts unless they are made to be very comfortable.

The air bag system is considerably more expensive than the simple seat belt system. Estimates of the cost difference range from $112 to

$235. The passive belt system is estimated to

cost $25 more than the conventional three-point

system. 24

Highways

Improvements in highway features that could

reduce the incidence or severity of traffic

crashes are shown in table 145, Most of the

devices or design techniques have been developed, but have not been universally applied.

Skid resistance requires more research since it

involves trade-offs with tire noise, tire wear,

pavement cost, and durability.

241bid.
332 ● Changes in the Future Use and Characteristics of the Automobile Transportation System

Table 144.—Occupant Crash Protection System Effectiveness Estimates’

Passive belt

Lap and Air cushion and knee

Lapbelt shoulder belt Air cushion and Iapbelt bolster Knee bolster

A IS injury level:

1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.15 0.30 0 0.15 0.20 0.05

2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .22 .57 .22 .33 .40 .10

3 .30 .59 .30 .45 .45 .15

4-6 : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : .40 .60 .40 .65 .50 .15

aEffe~t ,vene~~ ~h~~n ,s the fraction of the vehicle occupants not lnj ured at the specl fled Injury level who would be Injured without the use of the restral nt sYstem

SOURCE Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation, Aufornoblle Crash Protectlorr, Report No 95.481. Oct 7, 1977

Table 145.—Technical Features for Highway Safety

1. Impact absorbing roadside safety devices.

2. Skid resistance.

3. Breakaway sign and lighting supports.

4. Guardrail.

5. Bridge rails and parapets.

6. Bridge widening.

7. Shoulders.

8. Wrong-way entry avoidance techniques.

9. Roadway lighting.

10. Traffic channelizaiton.

11. Roadway alinement and gradient.

12. Clear roadside recovery area.

13, Median barriers.

14. intersection sight distance.

15. Railroad highway grade-crossing protection.

16. Pavement marking and delineators.

SOURCE Abbreviated from the countermeasures examined In the Nat(ona/

Highway Safety Needs F?eport, U.S Department of Transportation,

Aprtl 1976

Recycling

The recovery of motor vehicle scrap metal is a

relatively well-established industry. Wrecking

yards and scrap processors recycle about 80 percent of junked motor vehicles. The wrecker

removes salvageable parts for resale and the

scrap processor extracts the ferrous material in

as pure a form as possible—usually well below

that of industrial ferrous scrap. Shredding is the

favored process and produces the highest purity

product. It is also a high-volume, capital-intensive process with only about 100 shredder units

in operation in this country.

As the content of plastics and nonferrous

metals in cars increases, separation problems

will become more difficult and the scrap will

become slightly less valuable. Materials selection and design features could help to alleviate

this problem but presently, there is little incentive to do so.

Tires are a major recycling problem, particularly the steel-belted variety. The following approaches are in various stages of development,

but none appears yet to be a clearly economical

solution:

● burning to produce thermal energy;

• cryogenic, shredding, or other processes to

recover the rubber for subsequent use (e. g.,

as an asphalt extender);

● conversion to carbon black, and

● processing to produce a form of synthetic

liquid fuel.
Ch. 10—Technology ● 3 3 3

AUTOMOBILE TECHNOLOGY BEYOND 1985

In the period from 1985 to 2000, it is expected

that technological development will proceed

along three lines. First will be efforts to develop

and commercialize advanced engines capable of

operating at much higher efficiency than the 25

percent typical of the best engines of today.25 A

four-passenger vehicle equipped with such a

propulsion system could have a operational fuel

economy of 60 mpg or more.26 A second line of

development will be improvement of other

automobile components to provide even greater

fuel economy. It is anticipated that efforts will

concentrate on continuously variable transmissions, low-friction tires, and improved aerodynamics. The need for, and emphasis on, more

efficient vehicles will be partly determined by

success in a third area of development—alternate energy sources. It is expected that the technology to produce fuels from sources other than

petroleum and to use electrical energy could

reach a high state of refinement. If so, the pressure for greater automotive fuel economy would

be correspondingly less. This section of the report examines some of these potential advances

in auto and fuel technology and assesses the outlook and the problems associated with their development and use.

Propulsion Systems

New engines or power sources that are under

development for automotive applications include: Brayton (or gas turbine); Stirling; diesel:

Otto- diesel hybrid; adiabatic diesel; stratified

charge; various rotaries (including Wankel);

Rankine; battery; fuel cell; and other energy

storage devices, such as flywheel and thermal

sink.

It is also possible to add “upstream” systems

such as superchargers, turbochargers, Comprex

“superchargers, ” and regenerators (heat exchangers ). Also a great variety of fuels from dif -

ferent sources could be used. They include gasoline, diesel, liquefied petroleum gas, liquefied

natural gas, petroleum natural gas, hydrogen,

alcohol, ammonia, ether, and hydrazine. Finally, compounding, or combining two or mor e

different engine types, adds new possibilities.

The list of concepts which have been Formulated is extremely ions, but it is unlikely that

more than a few will make their way into passenger-car use by 2000. A qualitative evaluation

of the relative merits of the basic types of engines in terms of their key characteristics i s

given in figure 63.

Research and development programs for advanced heat engines are being conducted by

both Government and industry. The Department of Energy, acting under the Energy Reorganization Act of 1974 and the Federal NonNuclear Energy Research and Development Act

of 1974, has been pursuing the development of

the gas turbine and Stirling engines for passenger-car application. More recent legislation, the

Automotive Propulsion Research and Development Act of 1978, directs DOE to support research and development t that would lead to introduction of alternate automobile propulsion

systems with in the next decade. The Act also

calls for dissemination of technical information

on advanced engines. The intent of the Act is to

supplement the research and development efforts of private industry and to encourage and

facilitate competition in developing alternate

engines. Although little has yet been accomplished under the Act, it does provide the basis

for unifying and focusing the Government efforts in assisting R&D on alternate automotive

propulsion systems.

Stirling Engines

The Stirling engine converts heat energy from

the burning air/fuel mixture to mechanical

energy through the alternative compression and

expansion of a confined working fluid. The

working fluid (normally a small quantity of

high-pressure hydrogen or helium) is cooled

during the compression stage and heated during

the expansion stage. Residual heat energy is

recycled through a heat exchanger that stores a
334 ● Changes in the Future Use and Characteristics of the Automobile Transportation System

Figure 63.—Characteristics of Automotive Propulsion Systems’

Fuel

consumption Size and

Powerplant economy Emissions cost weight

●

State of

develop- Fuel

ment versatility

‘ Passenger car application.

b D!fferent fuel cells use different fuels, but a fuel cell will onlv use the fuel for which it was designed.

c Depends on extent of emissions from electric-generating plant and the Importance of point ve&.us dispersed emmons

d Ca”n use any fuel used to generate electricity. -

e Typically, an internal combustion engine plus battery or flywheel.

f Can use any fuel used to generate electricity, and those usable in the secondary

SOURCE” SRI, p. V-44, and OTA.

large portion of the heat of the working fluid ●

after expansion and returns it to the working

fluid after compression.

A sequence of four events occurs during a full .

work cycle of the engine:

The working fluid is transferred from the

hot space through the heater, regenerator,

and cooler to the cold space. This occurs

with a relatively small change in total

working space volume. ●

power plant.

A compression process occurs when the

working fluid is located primarily within

the cold space and the adjacent cooler.

The working fluid is transferred from the

cold space through the cooler, regenerator,

and heater to the hot space, with a relatively small change in total working space

volume.

The working fluid expands when it is
located primarily within the hot space and

the adjacent heater.

The expansion and compression spaces are

phased so that the working fluid is located in the

hot space of the engine as total working space

volume increases. As total working volume decreases, the working fluid is found mainly in the

cold space of the engine. The four processes are

repeated for each revolution of the crankshaft.

Ch. 10—Technology

The motions of the mechanism and the gas

can best be understood by examining the

● 3 3 5

flow

twopiston analogous mechanism and its volume

crank angle diagram shown in figure 64. This

configuration is not currently used as a Stirling

engine, but is useful in illustrating the principle.

A schematic drawing of the double-acting,

swash plate, piston-type Stirling (which is an

operating engine) is shown in figure 65.

Figure 64.—Principle of the Stirling Engine

Q ~ Regenerator Q

Expansion

space v,

Fixed

crank cente

Compression

space VC

Connecting linkage

SOURCE SRI

Figure 65.—Stirling Engine With Swash Plate

Coolant to

fluid

SOURCE” SydecEEA, p II-21
336 ● Changes in the Future Use and Characteristics of the Automobile Transportation System

The other common type of Stirling has a

rhombic-drive, inline piston displacer configuration. However, Wankel expanders, valved

versions, and similar variants are under study.

The Stirling engine shows significant potential when compared to the conventional internal

combustion engine. It has lower noise levels

because of the continuous burning process and

reduced emissions. The Stirling can burn a variety of fuels. Its operation is smooth and without

vibration. Finally, the engine has cycle efficiencies approaching 40 percent.

The problems in the development of the Stirling are all technical or cost-related, They may

never be overcome on a cost-competitive basis.

These problems include:

high temperatures with attendant problems

of materials, sealing, thermal cycling, etc.;

high-pressure areas and the basic technological difficulties concerning the sealing so

that gas does not leak out of the engine or

into other parts of the system (efficiency

improves with system pressure and units

have been run at well over 3,OOO psi);

cost, complexity, and availability constraints centering on the use of sophisticated electronic controls, ceramic components for the heat exchanger, and extensive

stainless steel tubing required to withstand

the very high pressures and temperatures

inside the engine;

uncertainty regarding the feasibility of producing many of the engine components

which are new and have never before been

mass-produced (the production processes

of engine manufacturers and component

vendors would have to be refined before

cost-effective mass production could take

place);

need for large, high-capacity radiators and

the severe loss in efficiency when the heat is

rejected to high ambient temperatures (e. g.,

1000 F or greater);

complexity and low efficiency of the gas

volume control system and slow response

to changes in speed and load demand;

uncertainty regarding engine durability and

the feasibility of producing engines in different sizes; and

. fuel economy actually attained to date for

the complete powerplant (with accessories)

is about that of a conventional Otto-cycle

engine.

Until recently, most experience with the Stirling engine has been in the research laboratory.

The only commercial application of the Stirling

cycle to date has been in a cryogenic machine

for producing liquid air. However, some development work has been done on potential application of the Stirling in heavy-duty trucks, and

there has been minor production for military

hardware. Work on the feasibility of a fourcylinder 170 horsepower (hp) Stirling for automobiles was conducted by Ford and the Department of Energy (DOE) under a licensing agreement with N.V. Phillips Gloeilampenfabriken of

the Netherlands. Laboratory testing of the

engine was completed in 1976. The second

phase sought to improve engine durability and

performance in road tests, to determine potential feasibility, to assess the potential for engine

size modification, and to initiate R&D work

with other firms. Table 146 shows some features

of the Stirling engine compared with the baseline standard engine.

Ford recently completed a feasibility study,

funded by DOE, involving the conceptual design and evaluation of an 80 to 100 hp Stirling

engine for use in a passenger car of the 2,500- to

3,000-pound weight class. Subsequently, Ford

announced its withdrawal from the DOE Stirling engine program.

DOE is also funding Mechanical Technology,

Inc., United Stirling of Sweden, and AM General Corporation in a joint effort to develop three

generations of engines in the 55 to 130 hp range.

The first portion of this work was to demonstrate a Stirling engine in an Opel Rekord. Installation was completed, and road testing was

begun in the summer of 1978. Preliminary test

results are encouraging. The Stirling Opel

equaled a diesel-powered Opel in fuel economy

and easily met the future statutory emissions

standards.

Even if all performances projections are realized and durability is demonstrated, the market
Ch. 10— Technology Ž 337

Table 146.—Stirling and Baseline Engine Dataa

351-2V V-8

“4-21 5“ Stirlingb Baseline Clean Air Act’

Emissions (g/mi)

Hydrocarbons . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.04 0.49 0.41

Carbon monoxide . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.98 6.05 3.40

Oxides of nitrogen . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.39 1.35 0.4

Fuel economy (mpg)

City. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13.5 11.0

Highway. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18.7 16.0

Metro-highway . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15.5 13.0

Performance (sec.)

0-60 mph. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12.6 15.8

25-60 mph..... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.2 11.2

50-80 mph...... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12.8 18.5

for the Stirling engine will probably be limited

by cost, availability of materials, and technical

considerations. The long leadtimes required to

modify existing engine plants and to introduce

new processes for the production of new engine

parts make the commercialization of the Stirling

engine unlikely until 1990 to 2000. The lag is

likely to persist despite the fact the Government

support doubled in 1978.

Brayton Cycle Engines

A gas turbine (or Brayton cycle engine) is

usually a continuous combustion powerplant in

which the burning takes place in the working

fluid. The main elements of the most common

and simplest configuration are a compressor, a

burner, and an expander (or turbine), with the

entire gas stream proceeding through each. The

compressor and turbine are usually on a common main shaft.

The combustion energy drives the turbine

which, in turn, drives the compressor. This permits the extraction of power in the form of jet

thrust, or shaft power, taken from the main

shaft or from a separate power turbine in the exhaust gas stream. Many other types of compressors and expanders (rotary, reciprocating, lobe,

screw, and vane) have been developed. However, only the axial, centrifugal, mixed-flow, or

radial-inflow elements have found wide acceptance.

Present design practice for ground vehicle gas

turbines favors the single-stage compressor and

turbine on a common shaft, with a power turbine in the exhaust stream on a second shaft,

and a regenerator (moving element heat exchanger) or recuperator (fixed element heat exchanger) to bring some of the exhaust waste

heat back with the inlet air. Movable turbine

nozzle vanes or a power transfer system are also

included to improve part-load fuel economy.

Recently, there has also been increased interest

in small single-shaft designs operating at high

speeds, high-pressure ratios, and without regeneration.

Turbine efficiency is a function of inlet air

temperature, compression ratio, and turbine inlet temperature. Efficiency is also limited by the

strength of the turbine blades at the high-operating temperatures typical of Brayton cycle

engines. Blade cooling can allow slightly higher

gas temperatures, but it is complex and costly,

especially in the relatively small engines suitable

for passenger cars. A very high overall air/fuel

ratio (up to 40 to 1 ) is used to reduce the temperature of the burner and turbine wheel.

Maximum efficiency of the best recuperative

versions of large-size turbines (400 hp) is nearly

40 percent. It is presently believed that all-ceramic engines with high-performance regenerators (or recuperators) may be able to achieve 38-
338 Ž Changes in the Future Use and Characteristics of the Automobile Transportation System

percent efficiency in the 100 hp size range.27 It is

more difficult to achieve high efficiency in a

small gas turbine than in a large one; surface

friction in a narrower flow path affects a greater

portion of the total air flow and clearances between the moving parts and the housing account

for a higher percentage of losses.

The power output of a single-shaft turbine decreases to nearly zero as engine speed drops by

50 percent. Thus, this turbine must operate over

a much narrower speed range than most other

engine types to maintain high efficiency. This

requires the use of a wide-range continuously

variable transmission (CVT) in order to match

the narrow speed range of the engine to the variable speeds needed for operation of an automobile. Such transmissions are under development. The two-shaft configuration, or “free turbine” allows use of the standard automatic

transmission employed in existing automobile

designs, since the second turbine is able to operate at speeds considerably different from those

of the main shaft.

The technical and performance potential of

the gas turbine is attractive for the following

reasons:

●

●

●

●

There is the potential for high thermal efficiency, and thus good fuel economy (although this has not been realized to date).

Gas turbines can be designed for a very

wide range of gaseous or liquid fuels (multifuel capability).

The turbine exhaust has substantially lower

HC and CO emissions due to the more

complete combustion associated with longer burning duration at higher temperatures.

Also there is considerable research activity

directed at achieving a “low NOX” burner

which should meet 0.4 gram per mile

N OX—the original statutory standard and

the 1982 California requirement.

The turbine has low weight and smooth

operation, as well as a long life and reduced

maintenance costs.

In order to realize the potential for high thermal efficiency, the turbine inlet temperatures

need to approach 2,5000 F. Thus, the hot parts

of the burner, ducting, nozzle ring, and turbine

wheels require highly temperature-resistant materials. These can be sheet, forged, or cast “super alloy s,” or ceramics. Ceramics would offer

the best temperature resistance, long life, and

lower production costs if the technology could

be perfected.

One of the main limitations to ceramic

materials is random undetectable defects in the

crystal structure. As a result, conservative

design practice requires use of stress levels of

about one-quarter of those possible with a “perfect” material. A breakthrough in understanding the fundamental properties of ceramics with

regard to their uniformity and freedom from

random defects would enhance the gas turbine’s

competitive position.

Another problem with the ground vehicle turbine is the inability to achieve good fuel economy under partial load conditions and in acceleration and deceleration modes. Efforts to increase the fuel economy of the turbine are being

made through redesign of the combustion chamber, compressor, and turbine. Most of the turbine engines presently being road tested use two

shafts (the “free turbine”), fixed geometry combustors, and continuous fuel injection systems.

In order to reduce fuel consumption when operating at less than full torque requirements, experiments are being conducted with intermittent

fuel injection that varies with vehicle speed and

with variable air-orifice geometry in the combustion chamber.

Gas turbines are not yet on the market, although both GM and Ford were close to offering

large turbines in trucks and buses several years

ago. The present GM turbine development program for both cars and trucks is quite active.

However, Ford has essentially halted its truck

turbine program. A consortium of AiResearch/

Mack/KHD has also begun development of a

large-truck turbine and could be the first with

commercial sales.

The use of turbines in passenger cars is uncertain in the near future, but breakthroughs in ceramics could enhance their potential. The DOE/

Chrysler target date for a competitive automobile turbine is 1983. GM has an ongoing development program, but its time frame is unknown. It is possible that GM is further along in
Ch. 10—Technology ● 339

development than Chrysler/DOE; GM is not

relying on ceramic materials at this time.

United Turbine A. B., a subdivision of Volvo,

has developed a three-shaft turbine (the KIT)

which it claims is competitive in fuel economy

with its current ICE-powered automobile .28

Volkswagen, Nissan, and Toyota are also active

in turbine development.

Once turbine engines are fully developed,

their costs could be attractive for the consumer,

largely due to long life and reduced maintenance. Initial costs and fuel economy need to be

brought to a competitive level, however, and

high-temperature materials at low cost are required.

Diesels

The use of diesels through 1985 was discussed

at length earlier in this chapter. As interest in

passenger car diesels grows, many other concepts for improving the engine will be explored

in greater depth. Most improvements will probably occur after 1985. Some of these developments are:

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

variable compression ratio to improve

starting and optimize operation over a wide

range of conditions;

positive timing of ignition (e.g., via spark

plug);

throttling to reduce smoke;

modulated or pilot fuel injection to minimize need for indirect injection and/or

massive construction;

use of valve selector to cut out unneeded

cylinders;

various forms of capturing the waste energy in the exhaust of a conventional diesel

(e.g., Rankine bottoming cycle—a small

closed-cycle steam turbine coupled to the

crankshaft—or Comprex “supercharging”);

innovative, very low-fuel-consumption

concepts, such a s the Cummins/

TARADCOM adiabatic turbocompound

diesel; and

friction-reducing features such as an “air

bearing” between piston and cylinder wall.

1’S, O. Kronogard, “Advances in Automotive Gas Turbines, ”

Mechanical Eng~r~eerl)~g, October 1977, pp. 38-43.

In view of the abundance of technological options, the relative emphasis on diesel versus

gasoline engines may well hinge on the manufacturers’ broad strategy considerations about

the merits of developing two kinds of engines

when either one would do the job. At the same

time, diesel and gasoline engine technologies are

tending to grow closer together (the Texaco

TCCS concept and a “spark-timed” diesel concept are almost identical) and could conceivably

merge. This potential merging has major competitive implications for the diesel engine industry and for the automobile manufacturers.

The adiabatic turbocompound diesel may

provide thermal efficiency comparable to or

higher than the Stirling in about the same time

frame. The Cummins/TARADCOM program is

exploring various changes to the diesel; by 1979,

a test engine incorporating these changes should

produce a thermal efficiency of 56 percent .29

Thermal efficiency of up to 48 percent has

already been achieved but the developmental

engines, and even production versions, may be

quite difficult to adapt to passenger car applications.

The major gain in efficiency is obtained by

completely removing any form of cooling of the

pistons and combustion chamber and by insulating the engine against radiant heat loss.

Thus, the interior cylinder wall temperature of

the engine is extremely hot in operation (above

2,000

0 F, compared to about 5000 F for a conventional diesel), and essentially all the waste

heat goes out the exhaust. This high-energy exhaust stream is first used to drive a turbocharger

and then to drive a power recovery turbine that

is coupled to the crankshaft. The Wright Cyclone R3350 aircraft engine of the 1950’s (using

aviation gasoline) used this same turbocompound principle and achieved thermal efficiencies of over 40 percent in commercial service. It

is conceivable that further compounding (e. g.,

addition of a Rankine unit) could raise the overall efficiency to greater than 60 percent.

The extreme temperatures of the power section require the use of ceramic pistons and unusual combinations of piston rings, cylinder

wall, and lubricants. However, these problems

are being worked out. The basic engine, plus

compounding, could have 25 percent less vol-

“SRI, p. V-52
340 . Changes in the Future Use and Characteristics of the Automobile Transportation System

ume than a naturally aspirated engine but the

amount of hot ducts and thermal insulation

would add appreciably to the effective engine

volume. The cost of early engines would be

several times that of existing engines and even in

high production, costs would probably never

drop below double. Also, it would take many

years to arrive at a passenger car production

version.

Fuel Cells

Fuel cells generate electricity from chemical

energy through an electrochemical process.

They have four primary ingredients: an electrolyte (conducive to ions such as hydrogen or

oxygen); two electrodes per cell; a case for the

cell or combinations of cells; and tanks for containment of fuel and oxident (if needed). Many

fuel cells, especially those operating at or near

room temperature require a catalytic agent,

often platinum, in very small amounts on the

electrode.

Many combinations of different types of the

ingredients can be made into fuel cells. Some of

the fuels used are hydrogen, methanol, hydrazine, ammonia, metallic fuels (e.g., zinc/air),

and biological fuel. Some operate at a range of

temperatures from room temperature up to

1,0000 Centigrade and higher.

Fuel cells have received most recent and widespread visibility by virtue of their use in

satellites to produce electrical power. The process is inherently much quieter, cleaner, and

more efficient than conventional power-generating equipment. The higher efficiency capability is a result of the fact that the fuel cell does not

involve conversion of heat to mechanical

energy, thus avoiding thermodynamic lower

limits on efficiency.

Practical, cost-effective fuel cells are not yet

available, and it is difficult to predict when such

systems might be developed. Current costs of

fuel cells are much higher than other practical

energy conversion systems. Yet, the potential of

fuel cells, both for stationary electric generation

and to power vehicles, should not be underestimated or overlooked. 30

WC Sand5tede, ed., from Electrocahdysis to Fuel Cc//s (Seattle:

University of Washington Press for Battelle Seattle Research

Center, 1972).

Drivetrain and Tires

Ongoing improvements n transmission and

drivetrain-related equipment are expected to be

in production by the mid-1980’s. A practical

CVT will require a much longer time frame and,

in light of other improved transmissions, may

be limited in application.

In addition to the reduced rolling resistance

associated with belted radial tires and the

weight savings possible from using a “compact”

spare (or eliminating the spare through a runflat system), another tire innovation holds considerable promise. This is a cast, all-plastic tire

with no cord or bead of any sort. One concept

uses a fully closed torroidal form (likertube) mounted on a two-piece wheel. Another

uses an integral plastic tire and wheel. Still

another uses a conventional tire

with a steel bead. Compared with

these concepts have the promise

simultaneously:

●

●

●

●

●

equal durability with equal

traction,

50-percent weight reduction,

cross-section

current tires,

of achieving

wet and dry

reduced hysteresis (rolling friction),

complete recyclability, and

lower first cost 31

However, the technical problems of noise,

durability, heat buildup, etc., for these concepts

are much the same as those of conventional

tires.

The captive nature of the tire industry, the

major shift that would be required in facilities

and materials sources, the great reduction in required labor, and related institutional problems

may slow the development of the all-plastic tire.

Vehicle Design and Manufacture

Post-1985 vehicle design and manufacturing

changes could be motivated by several factors.

These include the need to reduce the weight of

vehicles further for improved fuel economy, the

need to enhance the safety characteristics of

vehicles, particularly in light of the reduction in

“SRI Supplement.
Ch. 10—Technology ● 3 4 1

size and weight of cars, and the need for more

durable, longer lasting vehicle structures that

are more corrosion-resistant. The limiting factors may be the engineering and design techniques and the availability of high-strength,

lightweight durable materials to accomplish all

of these objectives simultaneously.

Research in this area thus far has shown some

promising results. For instance, smaller, lighter

vehicles need not have a safety disadvantage.

The creative use of lightweight materials (such

as high-strength low-alloy steels, aluminum,

composite structural plastics, and plastics,

foams, and integrated foam-filled structures)

has been demonstrated in the design of lightweight, sturdy vehicles.

The primary difficulty in new materials applications is in developing manufacturing processes that are competitive with steel forging,

iron casting, and stamping in terms of manpower and time. Significant progress is being made

with aluminum stamping, bonding plastics to

metals, and molding large shapes of plastic.

Such advances will encourage the use of these

materials.

Durability, Corrosion, and Recycling

Durability and corrosion resistance depend

on the materials used, the quality of vehicular

components, and the ease of repairing or replacing those parts that are expected to wear. The

plastic and aluminum parts will not rust, although the plastic may deteriorate over time,

and aluminum will oxidize somewhat. Corrosion of steel parts can be controlled to a greater

degree than at present by modifying design to

limit the areas where salt and mud collect, by

improving metal coatings (paints), by use of

galvanized (zinc-coated ) metals, and by improving sealing materials (undercoating). Progress is

being made in these areas.

It is relatively easy to design stronger, and

hence more durable, automobile parts. However, this generally entails added cost and increased weight. An overall saving in materials

and in production energy might result. However, the cost-effectiveness of this approach requires careful study. Increased durability could

lead to a fleet of older vehicles, made to earlier

design standards, and possibly in poorer repair.

Recycling is now a well-established industry;

its continuation and expansion depend more on

will and economics than on technology. The increased use of plastics will require more attention to the recycling of these parts. Separation

of plastics from metals will become increasingly

difficult. Sorting of plastics for recycling is an

almost insurmountable problem; a cost-effective solution will be difficult to find. Plastics

that cannot be reclaimed pose a solid waste

problem, since they do not decompose naturally.

Safety

There are a number of safety technology concepts in the automobile transportation system

relating to vehicles, highways, and driver performance. Many of these concepts can be applied to crash avoidance or crash severity reduction, or to both in some cases. The following is a

listing of some of these concepts:

improved vehicle structural engineering /

design/materials;

advanced restraint systems;

interior design concepts for safety;

antilock and radar brakes;

fuel systems and fuel tanks with reduced

flammability;

vehicle control augmentation;

vehicle exteriors that minimize injury to

pedestrian and pedacycle riders; and

modal mix considerations (truck underride

guard, for example).

Vehicle crashworthiness has two underlying

objectives —maintaining occupant compartment

integrity in the crash, and controlling the accelerations of the vehicle and the occupants

throughout the event. By controlling the acceleration and spreading it out over time, the

peak accelerations and overall level of accelerations on the vehicle occupants are reduced, Designs that can achieve higher levels of crashworthiness require application of known basic

design principles. Computer-aided finite element analysis in vehicle design offers the capability for detailed examination of vehicle structural response characteristics. Also, routine application of engineering principles applied to
342 ● Changes in the Future Use and Characteristics of the Automobile Transportation System

crashworthiness criteria could produce vehicles

of extremely high structural integrity.

Advanced restraint systems and interior design considerations for safety are an integral

part of the occupant protection concept .32 Considerable progress has been made in these areas

and more improvements are expected.

Exterior designs that can lessen injuries in collisions with pedestrians, cyclists, and motorcyclists have not been fully explored yet. One

approach to this concept has been a soft frontend design which tends to soften the initial blow

and guide a struck pedestrian onto the hood of

the vehicle. The efficacy and applicability of

these ideas need further study. Certain features,

such as breakaway or hinged outside mirrors

and hinged hood ornaments, are already commonplace on vehicles.

Brakes

Several concepts regarding improved brakes

are under consideration for 1985 and beyond.

These include antiskid brakes and radar brakes.

Antiskid brakes have been developed for

passenger cars. However, marketing of the early

systems (which were developed without regulatory pressure or other incentives) was not very

successful. Operating experience with such units

has been quite satisfactory, despite early problems with the more complex units used on

trucks. Technologically, such systems are quite

feasible, but users have not viewed the benefits

as being worth the added cost. A number of new

antiskid braking concepts are under development. They could result in up to 10 percent less

stopping distance in many cases, and several

times that in a few severe conditions. More importantly, they essentially eliminate loss of

directional control in emergency stops.

Since diesel engines have no engine vacuum,

the Oldsmobile diesel uses a hydraulic booster

to power the brakes. The hydraulic boost consists of using the power-steering pump for this

second function. When antiskid systems are

used, it probably will be preferable to use this

form of power assist (rather than vacuum) for

spark-ignition engines as well as diesel because

of the much smaller actuators required.

Radar-assisted brakes are also under development. Their purpose is to perceive an inevitable

collision event and respond faster than the

human operator in applying the brakes. The

system is not necessarily designed to avoid collisions, but to reduce the impact speed and thus

the severity of a crash. Minicars, Inc., has

developed such a system in conjunction with its

work on the Research Safety Vehicle Program.

They calculated a 60- to 90-percent reduction in

collision energy at 50 mph compared with

operator-actuated brakes, using a perceived

hazard distance of 80 feet.33 However, there is

some concern that the widespread use of radar

equipment may present a microwave radiation

hazard.

Fuel Systems

Over 17,000 fires occur annually in the

United States as a result of motor vehicle

crashes .34 In 1975, there were 55,000 vehicles involved in fatal crashes; more than 1,200 fires occurred .35 The current FMVSS 301 standard on

fuel system integrity considerably reduces the

allowable fuel loss in 30 mph front, rear, and

side collisions. The RSV program specifications,

however, call for no fuel loss under much more

severe test conditions. The technology for

secure fuel systems is available. Bladder tanks,

compartmentalized tanks, resealing tanks, foam

filler blocks, and the like have been used extensively in aircraft and racing cars to reduce fire

hazards. All of this technology is easily transferable to passenger cars at some modest increase in cost.

Another approach to minimizing problems

with fires is to identify and eliminate the ignition source(s). An inertial switch is available

which shuts off the electrical system in a crash.

The electrical system has long been suspected to

be a primary source of ignition in collision, fires.

‘

z

John D. States, “Static Passive Occupant Restraint Systems,

Without Airbags and Without Belts, Is It Possible?, ” Fifth International Congress on Automotive Safety-Proceedings, Cambridge,

Mass., July 11-13, 1977, pp. 419-426.

33 Rudolf Limpert, “Minicars RSV Brake System, ” Fifth International Congress on Automotive Safety-Proceedings, Cambridge,

Mass,, July 11-13, 1977, pp. 773-802.

JfJohn Hubbard, Virginia Kelley, Russell Shew, “Fuel-Fed Vehicle Fires, ” Trial, January 1978.

MU, S, Department of Transportation, Fatal Accident %mrting

System, 197s Report,
Ch. 10— Technology • 343

Program and Concept Cars

Concept cars have been used as a means of

corporate advertising, exploring public interests

and tastes, and checking feasibility of new engineering and production concepts. More recently, concept cars have been used to investigate

and stimulate innovative technical approaches

that address national needs. The major auto

companies routinely build such vehicles; the

prototypes from small auto companies and inventors attempting to break into the automotive

world can be viewed in this same category.

This class of vehicles includes the Chrysler

gas turbine cars, the GM XP898 “all plastic” car,

the Bricklin and DeLorean cars, the wide variety

of cars used to explain new engines and/or

fuels, electrics and hybrids and, finally, the

series of safety cars. The safety car program

started with the Liberty Mutual/New York State

car of the 1960’s. It progressed through the

NHTSA Experimental Safety Vehicle (ESV) Program of the early 1970’s to the present RSV

(Research Safety Vehicle) Program, which attempts to integrate emission control and fueleconomy goals with the primary safety concepts.

As a parallel aspect of the ESV program, the

major auto companies built their own versions

of ESVs. These cars provided major improvements in meeting safety criteria, but retained

much of the conventional full-size passenger car

design, materials, styling, and production features. The ESVs, designed and built by nonautomotive developers, were not based on existing

vehicles and had little in common with the conventional auto designs.

The current RSV program includes a very unconventional car from Minicars, Inc., as well as

the Calspan/Chrysler vehicle, which is based on

a modified Lightweight production sedan. At the

same time, VW has developed a safety car version of their Rabbit model that achieves excellent fuel economy, emissions levels, and performance. The major U.S. auto manufacturers

have not publicized any in-house integrated

safety car efforts comparable to their earlier

ESVs.

The information gained from the present RSV

and parallel activities will probably provide

both a basis for some of the future safety regulation and a fund of data and experience that will

be extremely useful to the major auto producers. As an example, the VW safety car, which is

a modified version of the Rabbit, weighs about

200 pounds more and is powered by a four-cylinder, turbocharged diesel. It obtains 60 m pg

(composite), accelerates from O to 60 mph in less

than 14 seconds, meets 1983 emissions standards, and provides 40 mph barrier (and 30 mph

pole) crash survivability without serious injury.

It is claimed that this car could be in production

in 3 years.

Electric and Hybrid Vehicles

In the present environment of low-cost and

plentiful gasoline, electric vehicles must be

viewed as an alternative that is competitive in

only very limited applications or under conditions of Government subsidy. In view of the inevitable depletion of petroleum resources and

the continued problem of air pollution with

petroleum fuels, Federal encouragement and

subsidy of EVS is proceeding. The program has

the dual objectives of conserving petroleum and

assuring that the necessary technology and experience are in place before the need becomes

urgent, since EVS can derive their energy from

coal-fired or nuclear-generating systems.

Many individual inventors, large corporations, and major auto manufacturers have been

pursuing EV development programs, partly in

the hope of providing a viable, currently competitive vehicle, and partly to be ready earlier

than their competitors where EVs eventually

become economically competitive. Present EV

technology generally provides vehicles of such

limited performance that public acceptance has

been extremely low. For example, the only EVs

commercially available are limited to about 35

mph, speed drops drastically on minor grades,

and performance is much poorer near the end of

the battery charge. Also, there is insufficient

energy storage to include provisions for heater,

defroster, air-conditioner, and similar features.

A typical electric-vehicle power train consists

of storage batteries, provision for recharging

from household or similar 110/220 volt sources,

a controller to adjust speed and acceleration,

and an electric motor that drives the road
344 ● Changes in the Future Use and Characteristics of the Automobile Transportation System

Experimental Vehicle Designs

Pholo Credit U S Department of Transportation
Ch. 10—Technology ● 3 4 5

wheels. The EV may also include regenerative

braking, as well as a load-leveling device such as

a flywheel to increase vehicle range.

The EV concept extends to a number of

vehicles including delivery vans, urban passenger cars, buses, agricultural equipment, industrial lift trucks, and golf carts. Current research

is focused on batteries, controls, and vehicles

for personal transportation and light-duty commercial use.

The extremely limited energy storage capability of present day battery systems has led to the

concept of combining a battery or similar energy storage system with a combustion engine system. This combination is known as a hybrid

powerplant. Two hybrid concepts have been

predominant—an internal combustion engine

with a battery system, and an internal combustion engine with a flywheel energy-storage

system.

Since the hybrid vehicle currently offers certain performance characteristics superior to

EVs, it may provide a more acceptable alternative and may encourage the development and

introduction of more advanced electric-vehicle

systems. Flywheel and other energy storage systems currently under development may provide

both electric and hybrid vehicles the performance and economy needed to improve their public acceptance.

Benefits

The successful development of an electric- or

hybrid-vehicle power system (i.e., battery and

power train technology) can provide a variety

of benefits in the future. To the extent that electricity is generated from nonpetroleum sources

and to the extent that electric- and/or hybridvehicle use replaces petroleum-vehicle use, the

electric vehicle offers a means for substantial

savings of petroleum.

Another benefit could be the virtual elimination of air emissions in urban areas. This benefit

needs further examination because the emissions

would be shifted to the utility. The ultimate impact would depend on the plants’ locations as

well as emission characteristics. However, unless emphasis is placed on vehicle safety, the increased use of small, lightweight vehicles may

have an adverse effect on traffic safety.

Constraints

Consumer preferences may represent strong

barriers to early sales of urban EVs and hybrids.

The average range of a current EV is only about

50 miles, a major disadvantage for consumers.

Although the hybrid vehicle does not suffer

from the range limitations of the electric vehicle,

it requires a more complex and expensive engine

power train design and needs two energy

sources.

Few EVs are currently equipped with the powerful motors and associated controls needed to

match the acceleration of ICE-powered vehicles.

Electric-vehicle users must adjust to lower

speeds and reduced performance. Hybrids are

not expected to perform much differently than

EVs in this regard.

Many or most of the amenities that are commonplace in current ICE-powered vehicles are

not expected on EVs or hybrids. Such equipment includes power steering, power brakes, extra interior space, and air-conditioning. However, in a serious energy shortage, this equipment would probably be discarded on ICE-powered automobiles as well.

Systems for servicing EVs or hybrids do not

exist yet. Parts availability, maintenance knowhow, and repair availability and costs are unknown.

State of the Art

In 1970, the Edison Electric Institute defined

the minimum desirable characteristics of electric

vehicles for use by utility companies. (See table

147. ) The purpose of the program was to encourage the manufacture and test operation of a

significant number of special purpose electric

vehicles.

The U.S. Postal Service is currently conducting a comprehensive electric-vehicle program.

During the project, a set of technical goals for

electric vehicles was developed. Except for the 4-

year battery life, the technical goals of the

postal electric vehicles (table 148) have been met

by approximately 380 vehicles. A number of

battery and control system failures were experienced by these vehicles. Preliminary results indicate that improved vehicle acceleration is desirable.
346 • Changes in the Future Use and Characteristics of the Automobile Transportation System

Table 147. —Desirable Minimum Characteristics— Electric Work Vehicle

SOURCE E A Campbell, Ana/ysis of On-Road E/ectrfc Vehlc/e Experience of 62 U S. Utl/l!les, SAE Paper 760074, 1976

SOURCE. D P Crane and J.R Broman, “United States Postal Service Electric Vehicle Program,” Fourtfr /rrternatlona/ E/ectrJc

Vehlc/e Syrnpo.wum, Dusseldorf, Germany, 1976

The Electric and Hybrid Vehicle Research,

Development, and Demonstration Act of 1976

(Public Law 94-413) included a provision to

“demonstrate the economic and technological

practicability of electric and hybrid vehicles for

personal and commercial use in urban areas and

for agricultural and personal use in rural

areas . . .“36 The Administrator of ERDA (now

DOE) was required to “promulgate rules establishing performance standards for electric and

hybrid vehicles to be purchased or leased. . .“37

within 15 months of enactment. The 1976 Act

originally called for the procurement of 2,500

EVs by December 17, 1979. Through an amendment in the law, the number has been reduced to

200 for the first year and 600 and 1,700 in the

following 2 years. In all, an EV fleet of 7,500

vehicles will be on the road for test and demonstration in the 1981-84 period. It is important

that this test fleet be viewed as a success or the

future acceptance of EVs will be seriously jeopardized.

The DOE electric vehicle program has concentrated on the development of six components. They include the battery, charger, motor,

jbElectric arid l-lybrld Vehicle Research, Development, and

Demonstration Act of 1976, P,L. 94-413, 94th Congress.

371bid.

controller, transmission, and body/chassis.

Table 149 lists the components and characterizes a few typical design alternatives. Figure 66

shows two EV unit configurations with different

charger systems. The onboard charger option

would most likely be used for personal two- and

four-passenger vehicles; the batteries of these

vehicles would be charged at individual residences. Small commercial delivery vans might

find it more convenient to utilize high-voltage

offboard charging systems.

The key to a successful electric vehicle is the

development of an improved battery with greater storage capacity, higher power density, and

greater recycling capability at minimal cost increases. A number of electric-vehicle prototypes

are currently being produced in the United

States, Europe, and Japan. These generally incorporate state-of-the-art lead-acid battery technology. Such vehicles are typically limited to an

operating range of about 25 to 30 miles between

recharges; they generally have speed limitations

of less than 50 mph because of low specific

power. Also, the already-poor specific energy

characteristics (28 to 32 watt-hour per kilogram)

of lead-acid batteries degrade further when

power demand is increased to maintain high acceleration and operating speeds.
Ch. 10—Techno/ogy ● 347

Table 149.—Typical Electric Vehicle Component Design Alternatives

Component Type

Battery. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Charger . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Motor . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Controller . . . . . . . . . . . .

Transmission . . . . . . . . .

Body/chassis . . . . . . . . .

Axles . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Springs . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Brakes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Tires. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Auxiliary power . . . . . . .

Accessories . . . . . . . . . .

Lead-acid (current)

Lead-acid (Advanced)

Nickel-iron

Iron-air

Zinc-air

Zinc-chlorine

Sodium-sulfur

Lithium-metal sulfide

Onboard

Offboard

Offboard, battery exchange

DC traction (series wound)

DC separately excited (shunt)

AC induction

Others

Silicon controlled rectifier (SCR) chopper

Inverter

Variable resistance (Rheostat)

Typical: 3-speed automatic with torque converter

Continuously variable transmission

Manual

None

Fiber reinforced plastics (fiberglass)

Lightweight metals

Typical

Typical Ieaf layer coil

Typical Self-adjusting hydraulic

Regenerative

Typical

Battery and charger

AC/DC converter

Gasoline heater

Thermal storage heater

Air-conditioner

SOURCE US Enemy Research and Development Adminlstrat!on Transr)ortatlon Enerav Conservation Dlvlslon, Errvlrorr.

menta/ De-v’e/opment P/an, September 1977

Europe and Japan are moving ahead in EV

development. Japan has demonstrated an EV

with a range of nearly 300 miles3g and England

has had a successful delivery fleet in operation

for several years.

There are several types of lead-acid battery

cars on the market. They suffer from the problems of short range, low speed, low performance, and flimsy vehicle structure and they have

not sold well. General Motors has announced

the possibility of marketing a delivery-type

vehicle or small urban passenger car in the

1980’s. GM will also provide a number of the

electric vans in the DOE demonstration program.

“Briefing by the U.S. Department of Energy, September 1977.

-.

Electric Vehicle Components

The propulsion system of the EV is made up

of the electric drive motor, the controller, and

the drivetrain. The drive motor may be either a

DC or AC induction motor. Both systems may

incorporate regenerative electric braking. The

potential advantages ascribed to the AC induction motor relative to the DC drive include lower maintenance requirements, lower cost, better

control of speed and torque, greater reliability,

and better performance in rugged terrain. For

either system, required battery voltages are in

the range of 80 to 150 volts.

Attempts are being made to reduce overall

vehicle weight and aerodynamic drag to improve performance. These goals can be attained
348 ● Changes in the Future Use and Characteristics of the Automobile Transportation System

r 1 I

a

1

I

I

I

I

I

I

I

I

I

I

I

I

I

I

I

I

I

I

I

I

I

I

I

I

I

I

I

I

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Ch. 10— Technology ● 3 4 9

by constructing the body and suspension of

special lightweight but high-strength materials

(aluminum, plastics, composites) and by suitably streamlining the configuration.

Hybrid Systems

Hybrids using internal combustion engines

can be of the series or parallel type as well as

other arran~ements. (See figure 67. ) In the series

configurate ion, the ICE is used to maintain the

energy storage system at optimum operating

conditions. The storage system is geared directly to the drive wheels to provide propulsion. In

the parallel configuration, either the ICE or the

energy storage system can supply power to the

wheels, with each system operating as close to

optimum as possible. In both configurations,

the energy storage device is generally reversible

and capable of accepting energy from regenerative braking systems.

The major subsystems of hybrid vehicles are

shown in table 150. The number of possible permutations is quite large; however, preliminary

investigations have indicated greater potential

for certain configurations.

Reliable data on hybrid vehicles are unavailable because few vehicles have been built. However, extrapolation of certain characteristics

suggests that a relatively small ICE (for highway

cruising) combined with an electric drive (for

urban driving) may prove to be a successful

alternative to the severely limited range of purely electric vehicles.

Table 150. —Hybrid Vehicle Subsystem Typical Design Alternatives

Vehicle subsystem Alternative hardware

Primary energy

converter

Secondary energy

converter

Motor/generator

ControlIer

Transmission

Chasis

Body

Axles

Springs

Brakes

Tires

Heat engine

Conventional (Otto cycle)

Diesel

Gas turbine

Rankine

Stirling

Battery’

Fuel cells

Heat engine

Flywheel

Battery

Fuel cell

HydrauIic accumulator

Pneumatic pressure vesselb

Elastic storage (e.g., spring)

AC

DC

Inverter

Cycloconverter

Relays, switches

Chopper

Typical: a) 3-speed automatic with torque converter;

b) manual

Continuously variable transmission

Fiber-reinforced plastics (fiberglass)

Lightweight metals

Typical

Typical: Self-adjusting hydraulic

Regenerative

Typical

aBattery flywheel and other such configurations that use a sing [e energy source (e g elect r(clty) are considered eleclr!c

veh(cles

bean aISo be used as auxrl (ary storage for regenerative braking m a 3 part ener9Y stora9e ~Yslem

SOURCE U S Energy Research and Development Admln(stratlon Transportation Energy Conservation D(wsionErrv~fon

menfa/ Development P/an September 1977
350 . Changes in the Future Use and Characteristics of the Automobile Transportation System

.

. .
Ch 10—Technology ● 3 5 1

Both the electric-vehicle and hybrid-vehicle

designs are in their infancy. Therefore, a wide

range of developments are being considered and

many of these are being pursued. Research efforts are continuing in the development of batteries with greater energy densities, longer life,

and shorter recharging requirements. Flywheel

development work has established objectives

for energy density for 1980 and 1985. Supporting research is also being conducted on electrical

components and materials. The NASA Lewis

Laboratory (under contract to DOE) is trying to

evaluate the more promising vehicle propulsion

system configurations.

Investment and Costs

Current investment by the DOE for the EV

and Hybrid Program is about $30 million for

fiscal year 1978 and $37.5 million is requested

for fiscal year 1979. The extent of private funding for research in the area is unknown at this

time, although it is thought to be fairly sizable.

Electric-vehicle costs are hard to project because of the scarcity of data. A number of factors, including improvement of vehicle design,

Photo Cred(~ A (Research Manufac!ur~ng Company

advancement in battery technology, and development of production economies of scale, will

influence future costs of electric vehicles. In a

study for DOE, General Research Corporation

developed costs for near-term (1980) two- and

four-passenger electric vehicles powered by

lead-acid batteries. (See table 151, ) A comparison of initial price shows a wide disparity

between two- and four-passenger EVs, and conventional (1976) ICES. Four-passenger EVs cost

about 20 percent more than conventional ICE

compacts. The primary reason for the disparity

lies in the cost of the lead-acid battery, which

accounts for up to 22 percent of the total price of

the EV. Four-passenger EVs are almost twice as

expensive as two-passenger EVs. Because of

greater size and weight characteristics, the fourpassenger EV requires a larger (and, therefore,

more expensive) battery power pack than that

needed by the two-passenger EV. Two-passenger EVs cost about 25 percent less than conventional 1976 subcompacts. Again, the difference

is primarily due to the smaller weight of the

two-passenger EV.

Operating costs for electric vehicles will depend largely on improvements in the energy ef-
352 ● Changes in the Future Use and Characteristics of the Automobile Transportation System

Table 151 .— Comparison of Costs for Electric and Conventional Cars

(initial price, 1976 dollars)

Vehicle type Base price Battery cost Total

2-passenger EV. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $1,901 $ 374 $2,275

4-passenger EV. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,518 1,020 4,538

Conventional compact. . . . . . . . . 3,780 — 3,780

Conventional subcompact . . . . . 3,060 — 3,060

SOURCE General Research Corporation. Po(ent/a/ App/icabi/(ty O( a Lead.Acd Battery-Powered TwoPassenger E/ecfrm Car,

June 1976.

ficiency of the battery, battery life, and the

battery-charging system. The rate of growth in

the price of electricity will also be a factor.

Maintenance costs for electric vehicles are expected to be less than those for conventional

ICES simply because EVs have fewer mechanical

working parts. The overall operating cost

spread between ICES and EVs will also be influenced by the rate of improvement in ICE fuel

economy and the rate of growth in the price of

gas, An important addition to routine operating

costs of a lead-acid battery system will occur

about every 2 years. This is the replacement of

the entire battery pack at a cost of about $500 to

$1,000 .

The costs of owning and operating hybrid vehicles are even less certain than for EVs. The initial cost is anticipated to be higher than that of

an EV, since two propulsion systems are included. Operating costs are dependent on many

of the same factors as the EV and also on the

cost of the secondary fuel source.

ALTERNATE FUELS

The liquid and gaseous fuels that could be

used in conventional and potential future automobile powerplants can come from a variety of

sources and in numerous forms. Fuels which

have been tried include: gasoline, diesel fuel,

broadcut fuels, lower alcohols (ethanol and

methanol), higher alcohols, ether, ammonia,

liquid natural gas, propane, methane, hydrogen, and hydrazine. Any of these fuels can be

used in pure form, and some can be blended or

mixed with other fuels.

The sources of fuels are nearly as varied as the

type of products. Coal, oil shale, tar sands,

biomass (including municipal and agricultural

waste as well as agricultural products), and

water (for hydrogen), are considered likely alternate sources for fuel in the intermediate and

long term. This section deals with the technical

aspects of some of these sources, the end products, and their use in propulsion systems for

automobiles.

Oil Shale

The oil in oil shale is contained in kerogen, a

complex, high molecular weight organic substance composed of carbon, hydrogen, oxygen,

sulfur, and nitrogen, intimately mixed with inorganic silt particles. Separation of the oil requires that heat be applied to the shale. This

causes the kerogen molecules to break up, releasing liquid hydrocarbons, some combustible

gases, and water from the inorganic spent shale

residue. The liquid hydrocarbon mixture (crude

shale oil) is then upgraded to syncrude to make

it acceptable as a conventional petroleum refinery feedstock.

The use of substitute automotive fuels derived

from oil shale does not require new engine technology. Oil shale products could supplement

supplies of petroleum available to the auto sector. They could also be used as feedstocks for

the petrochemicals industry, thereby allowing
greater use of available

the automotive sector.

Two basic processes

from oil shale are being

petroleum supplies by

for recovering the oil

developed: the above-

-ground process, and in situ processing. Above-

-ground shale processing consists of four basic

steps: mining the shale; crushing it to the size

necessary for the retorting vessel; retorting the

shale through the application of heat; and upgrading the raw shale oil through the removal of

contaminants (excess nitrogen and oxygen) to

make it acceptable as a refinery feedstock.

There are several above-ground shale oil processing methods, characterized primarily by different procedures used in heating and retorting

the oil shale.

In situ recovery of oil shale differs from

aboveground recovery in that the oil is recovered from directly within the bed of shale. The

shale is fractured by explosives and then ignited

by a flame from compressed air and a combustible gas pumped into the shale bed. The gases

heat and retort the shale, producing an oily

vapor. The vapor condenses to a liquid at the

base of the in situ retort and is pumped to the

surface for upgrading to the level of refinery

feedstock quality. A “modified” in situ process

is being developed in which a portion of the

shale bed is first mined by conventional methods and retorted on the surface. The remaining

shale is retorted underground. This process has

been developed and is being tested by Occidental Petroleum Corporation with marginal success.

Oil shale production is constrained primarily

by technology, production cost, and environmental impacts. The existing processes have yet

to be implemented on a commercial scale in the

United States. It is unclear whether full-scale

production will entail changes or modifications

in existing technology.

The existence of high Ievels of nitrogen, arsenic, and oxygen and high carbon-to-hydrocarbon ratios in oil shale necessitates fairly

substantial upgrading to improve the quality of

oil shale syncrude. This processing is one of the

cost factors that makes oil shale noncompetitive

with crude petroleum at current prices.

A major environmental constraint involving

above-ground oil shale production is the probCh. 10— Technology ●

lem of spent shale. Only about 12 percent

weight) of oil shale can be converted to

353

(by

oil.

(This figure varies depending on the quality of

the deposit. ) The remaining 88 percent is relatively useless. It has been estimated that a 1-

million-barrel-a-day (bbls/day) shale industry

using high-grade (3o gallons per ton) shale will

generate 1.5 million tons of spent shale a day.

This is after mining, crushing, and retorting.

Crushing the rock and retorting causes the total

volume to increase. Thus, all of the spent shale

cannot be put back where it came from. The

problem of disposing of this shale in an environmentally and economically acceptable fashion is

a major constraint to the success of the oil shale

industry. Dust can also be a problem, particularly if the processing reduces the shale to a

fine powder.

In situ processing has some different environmental impacts from those of surface retorting

of sha!e. Aboveground processing is characterized by problems such as significant land disturbance due to mining, large volumes of spent

shale, relatively high water use, and air and

water emissions from retort operations. In situ

processing reduces some of these impacts but increases the potential for ground water contamination, aquifer disruption, and subsidence or

uplifting at the surface. Modified in situ processing has a combination of the surface and underground impacts.

Primary air pollutants associated with oil

shale processing include sulfur dioxide, hydrocarbons, nitrogen oxides, and particulate.

Other pollutants that can occur include ammonia, carbon monoxide, hydrogen sulfide

trace elements, and toxic substances. Conventional control systems are available for some of

these pollutants, but their removal efficiency

and dependability in these specific applications

have not been demonstrated. These air pollutants are off-gas emissions and are associated

with both the surface and in situ retorting processes, The effectiveness of in situ methods in

reducing gaseous pollutant formation, and containing and treating them, will not be known

until the technology has undergone additional

field testing. The upgrading, refinement, and

storage of the product are common steps to both

processes, and similar impacts will occur.

The water use requirements of shale process-
ing may constrain the development and use of

major oil shale deposits in arid regions. The

principal deposits of oil shale are found in Colorado, Utah, and Wyoming, where water supplies are limited. Extensive development of these

deposits, using existing mining and surface

retorting methods, could cause unacceptable

burdens on water use in the area and cause

economic hardships for farmers and industries

using the available water in these areas. In situ

processing requires less water for shale processing than current surface retorting and refining.

A major environmental impact which may

occur with in situ processing is geological disturbance. Mining, hydraulic and explosive fracturing, and in situ retorting cause physical disruption and cracking of strata. They may also

result in the severe disruption of adjacent

ground-water-bearing aquifers and cause subsidence or uplifting at the surface. Depending on

the proximity and structure of aquifers, ground

water supplies may be contaminated and aquifer flow and storage characteristics may be

changed. Subsidence at the surface, which may

not occur immediately, can damage buildings

and roadways or affect options for subsequent

land use. Finally, since oil shale is concentrated

principally in Colorado, Utah, and Wyoming,

the effect of “boomtown” development and accompanying social problems could be considerable.

At the present time, no oil shale plants have

been constructed or operated in the United

States on a large-scale commercial basis. The

technology is at the bench-scale to pilot-plant

stage of evolution. Both Government and privately sponsored projects involving R&D of oil

shale recovery processes have been underway
Ch. 10—Technology ● 3 5 5

since the 1920’s. Both above-ground (conventional) shale processing and in situ shale processing are under development.

Several types of surface shale oil retorting

methods are reportedly near the state of commercial application. Union Oil Company has

announced plans to construct a 10,000-bbl-perday oil shale plant in Colorado, providing they

receive a proposed $3 per barrel tax credit. The

Paraho Development Corporation is scheduled

to produce a total of 100,000 barrels of shale oil

for test purposes at its plant at Anvil Points,

Colo., under joint Navy/DOE financing.

Paraho has also proposed to build an 11,500-

ton-a-day commercial-scale module. The

TOSCO Corporation, in conjunction with Colony Development Corporation has recently designed a commerical-sized plant to produce

47,OOO bbls per day of shale oil and 4,3oo bbls

per day of liquefied petroleum gas.

Additional research in aboveground oil shale

conversion has been carried out by Union Oil

Company, the Institute of Gas Technology, and

the Superior Oil Company.

Several in situ processes have also been

tested. Occidental Petroleum Corporation has

been conducting a series of field tests since 1972.

It has constructed three commercial-sized, modified in situ retorts. One of these produced

27,500 barrels of oil in 6 months from shale containing 17 gallons per ton. In addition, work is

also being done at the Lawrence Livermore Laboratory and DOE’s Laramie Energy Technology

Center on variants of in situ oil shale recovery.

Estimates of commercialization of fuels from

oil shale are subject to considerable speculation;

a small amount of production could begin in the

late 1980’s or 1990’s. However, it will be many

years before the maximum economic recovery

rate (commensurate with competing petroleum

prices) will be attained. Current indications are

that oil shale derived fuels will not be widely

used by the auto sector before the year 2000,

primarily because of cost considerations. Over

the next 20 to 25 years, the likelihood of commercially available fuel from shale oil will increase as the price of petroleum increases.

Due to the continued uncertainty on such factors as oil shale technology, environmental requirements, disposal of spent shale, and problems of operating on a large scale, investment

costs of oil shale plants are difficult to estimate

with accuracy. The interplay of institutional,

environmental, economic, and technological

factors will have significant impact on capital

and operating costs. Current estimates call for a

$1 billion to $1.2 billion investment for a

50,000-barrel-a-day surface retort facility and at

least $75o million for a similar size modified in

situ operation.

For the same reasons, the projected retail

price of shale oil is uncertain. Occidental Petroleum claims that it can produce oil from oil

shale at a total cost of $12 a barrel .39 However,

another source (Continental Oil Company)

claims that the addition of environmental costs

and syncrude upgrading costs raises the perbarrel cost of oil shale to $16 to $26, a figure

well above the current world crude price of

about $13.50 a barrel.

Tar Sands

Tar sands (or bituminous sands) occur

throughout the world in various types of

deposits of varying viscosity. The bitumen in

the sand ranges from 5 to 13 percent by weight.

The best deposits are in Canada and South

America, totaling 98 percent of the estimated

1,680 billion barrels of world reserves. The

United States has less than 2 percent of world

reserves and considerably less in tar sands than

oil shale reserves. Consequently, tar sands are

not considered a major domestic energy resource. Utah contains 93 percent of the estimated 27 billion barrels of oil in tar sand

deposits in the United States.

The recovery process of tar sands is of two

types: mining followed by surface extraction,

and in situ extraction. Surface extraction processes are many:

● hot water (the only one used commercially),

• cold water ,

● solvent extraction,

● mechanical extraction, and

. spherical agglomeration.
356 • Changes in the Future Use and Characteristics of the Automobile Transportation System

The types of in situ extraction that can be

used are thermal stimulation and solvent extraction. The thermal stimulation technique has

several approaches involving steam injection or

flame propagation.

In situ and underground mining processes are

critical to tar sand development since only 10

percent of the U.S. and Canadian tar sand can

actually be surface-mined for extraction. The

product is a heavy synthetic feedstock, high in

sulfur (up to 5 percent) and relatively low in

nitrogen (less than 1 percent), which can be

cracked to synthetic crude oil and then refined.

The mining, extraction, and in situ processes of

tar sand have all of the problems of oil shale

mining and extraction. There are various R&D

projects ongoing in the United States. In

Canada, there is a successful commercial tar

sands plant producing 50,000 barrels per day of

high-quality synthetic crude oil. Several others

are scheduled for operation in the 1980’s.40

Coal Liquids

Liquid hydrocarbons can be produced from

coal by four categories of processes—solvent

hydrogenation, pyrolysis, hydrocarbonization,

and indirect liquefaction. During these processes, the coal is broken into smaller molecules,

contaminants such as ash and sulfur are removed, and the proportion of hydrogen in the

molecular structure is increased. Synthetic

crude oil, premium fuels, feedstocks, or lowash, low-sulfur boiler fuels are produced.

Indirect liquefaction (e.g., Fischer Tropsch

synthesis) involves the gasification of coal in the

presence of oxygen and hydrogen. The gas is

then purified and passed over a catalyst, yielding liquid products ranging from methanol to

heavy hydrocarbons. The process can be directed towards the production of motor fuel and

substitute natural gas. This process is currently

employed in a State-owned plant (SASOL) in

South Africa.

In solvent hydrogenation processes, the coal

is dissolved in process-derived solvent, and

molecular hydrogen is added directly or in-

‘“U. S. Department <>t the Navy, Energy and Natural Resources,

[<esearch and Development CXtlce, E/~crgy Fact BC)CIL 1977

TT-A-M277-306, April 1977, pp. VII-1 to VII-2O.

Photo Cred/f U S Deparfrnent of Energy

Mining for coal

directly via a hydrogen donor solvent. Solvent

hydrogenation processes can be either catalytic

or noncatalytic. Catalytic processes are further

classified as fixed or ebullating bed reactors to

describe how the coal, solvent, and hydrogen

mixtures contact the catalysts. Pressure in the

solvent hydrogenation reactor ranges from

1,000 to 4,000 psi and temperature ranges from

7500 to 9000 F.

Pyrolysis is similar to coal coking in that the

coal is heated to remove tars, gas, and other

volatiles, leaving a coal char that is largely carbon. Coal pyrolysis processes usually operate at

low pressure (2o to 50 psi) and moderately high

temperature (1,600 0 F), and are noncatalytic.

Hydrocarbonization is a refinement of the

coal pyrolysis process and entails noncatalytic

carbonization of the coal and thermal cracking

of the heavy coal liquids in a hydrogen atmosphere to produce fuel oil, distillates, and

gaseous fuels. Hydrocarbonization operates at
rnoderate pressure (500 psi) and temperature

(1,000° F). Most of the research in the United

States is on the direct liquefaction process (the

latter three described).

The conversion of coal to a liquid product requires increasing the proportion of hydrogen,

either by adding hydrogen or removing carbon.

(The hydrogen-to-carbon ratio in coal is 0.9 to

1; in oil it is 1.75 to 1.) The hydrogen for the

process can be derived from a catalytic reaction

of steam and a light hydrocarbon (usually methane or naptha), a partial oxidation of heavier oil

or coal, or an endothermic reaction involving

carbon and steam. For the economics of the conversion to be favorable, the energy for hydrogen

production must come from the coal itself. A

major influence on the cost is the 1imited ability

to produce a sufficient supply of hydrogen from

the coal-generated energy to maximize the conversion of coal to hydrocarbons.

The use of substitute automotive fuels derived

from coal would not require new engine technology. However, new engine technology could

reduce fuel quality requirements, and thus fuel

cost. Coal liquids could supplement supplies of

petroleum available to the automotive sector. In

addition, the use of coal liquids as feedstocks for

the petrochemicals industry could allow greater

use of available petroleum supplies by the automotive sector.

Major constraints to the development and use

of coal liquids center on technology, economics,

and environmental impacts. Since none of the

coal liquefaction processes have been demonstrated in the United States on a commercial

scale, it is not clear which process will prove to

be the most energy-efficient and cost-effective.

As a result, there is uncertainty about investment, operating costs, and production levels.

Coal liquefaction processes generally require

high pressures, carefully controlled temperatures, and large reactors for coal conversion.

This, in turn, requires specialized equipment

that can withstand the corrosive and fouling effects of coal and can adequately control the flow

of materials and heat in the reactors. Research is

continuing into the development of equipment

for commercial-scale application. However, as a

result of these specialized equipment needs, the

processes are highly capital-intensive.

Ch. 10— Technology

Before coal liquids can be refined, ash

_ 357

particulate and unreacted solids must be separated

and removed. Several processes for ash and

solids removal have been developed and are being tested. A major goal is to eliminate excessive

char buildup and clogging of feed 1ines and reactor equipment.

Unless heavily upgraded, crude oil derived

from coal is generally inferior to natural crude

oil because greater quantities of bound nitrogen

are present in the synthetic crude. In addition,

liquids from coal may be less stable than petroleum liquids. Although processes have been developed to upgrade the quality of coal-derived

syncrude, they involve additional costs that

hinder the competitiveness of coal liquids.

The price of available conventional fuel supplies (gas and oil) is also an important factor.

Given current technology, coal liquids cannot

be produced or sold (except at a loss) at current

levels of petroleum import prices. Thus, the import price of crude oil must rise before investments in coal liquefaction become attractive,

Crude oil prices will rise as existing world supplies of conventional fuels are depleted and/or

as a result of a price hike by the OPEC cartel.

Both of these mechanisms are largely beyond

the control of the United States. Therefore, uncertainty with respect to the price and rate of

depletion of existing fuels contributes to uncertainty with respect to the economics of investment in a coal liquefaction industry. Even if the

cost of coal liquefaction becomes competitive

with petroleum production, factors relating to

risk acceptability and capital cost may delay the

commercialization of coal liquids. Not only are

production processes untested at the commercial level (with the notable exception of SASOL

in South Africa), but also the substitution of

coal liquids for conventional fuels is relatively

untested. However, it is believed that any such

changeover will be simple and straightforward.

In addition, few companies have immediate

access to the large amounts of capital required

for plant construction. Therefore, the rate at

which capital can be mobilized (i. e., through the

formation of joint ventures or consortia) will

have an impact on the level and timing of coal

liquids’ commercialization.

Other drawbacks involve environmental considerations. Large-scale deployment of coal liq-
358 ● Changes in the Future Use and Characteristics of the Automobile Transportation System

uefaction processes could have significant i m -

pacts on the air and water quality of the regions

in which they are developed. Sources of process

emissions are known and conventional techniques are available for emissions control. However, the exact quantities of air and waste-water

pollution are not well-known, nor have the

overall cost effectiveness and dependability of

conventional control techniques been demonstrated for large-scale coal liquefaction plants.

Two other environmental characteristics of

liquefaction are of particular concern—the inherently hazardous nature of some organic compounds generated in this process, and the environmental impacts specific to the use of the

product coal liquids. Great care must be taken

to avoid hazardous exposures to process

streams, products, and waste streams. The dangerous organic compounds that exist in air emissions, water effluents, and solid waste can be

eliminated through oxidation and decomposition.

Many of the organic liquids derived from coal

are both carcinogenic and toxic (as is natural

crude oil) and it is not expected that the products of liquefaction will be rendered inert. One

example relates to the benzene content of coalderived liquids. Benzene has been recently recognized as a carcinogen, and both the Environmental Protection Administration and the Occupational Safety and Health Administration

are stepping up their regulatory program accordingly. Regulations applicable to petroleum

refining and gasoline handling are expected.

Gasoline has about 2 percent benzene. Coal-derived gasoline will require greater control than

conventional gasoline, since coal liquids have 5-

to lo-percent benzene content.

Liquefaction produces a low-ash, low-sulfur

fuel, but does little to reduce the nitrogen content of the fuel. To avoid damaging the catalysts

in the refinery, most of this nitrogen must be

removed before the fuel is refined to gasoline.

Use of coal-derived gasoline can result in higher

emissions of nitrogen oxide than use of petroleum-refined gasoline, unless the denitrification

of the coal-based fuel reduces fuel-bound nitrogen below the level found in petroleum. In addition, coal-derived fuels contain proportionately

larger amounts of aromatics and ring-structure

compounds. Research is underway to test the effects of these differences in fuel chemical composition on engine exhaust emissions and combustion characteristics.

Still, the greatest technological barriers to

coal liquids utilization lie in the production

area. The major thrust of present Government

and private research is on the development and

improvement of coal liquefaction production

technology. DOE is currently sponsoring the

development of several conversion processes

that are in the pilot-plant stage. In fiscal year

1977, $73 million had been spent on R&D for

coal liquefaction. Among the chief efforts are

the Solvent Refined Coal Process pilot plant at

Fort Lewis, Wash.; the H-Coal Process pilot

plant at Catlettsburg, Ky.; and Hydrocarbon

Research, Inc.

Other projects include the Donor Solvent Liquefaction Process, being developed by EXXON

Research and Engineering Company. The production of clean industrial and transportation

fuels from coal is being investigated by the Lummus Company through the use of a bench-scale

pilot plant.

While significant experimentation has been

conducted to determine the optimum operating

conditions for coal conversion processes, there

has also been extensive research and testing of

the ability of coal handling and feeding systems

to withstand the corrosive and fouling effects of

coal and coal products in the conversion process. Separation of ash and unreacted coal from

the viscous coal liquids is a difficult problem

common to all liquefaction processes and has

also been the focus of considerable development

effort. Many techniques are being investigated,

including filtration, centrifugation, fractionation, and magnetic and solvent separation.

The time frame for commercialization of coal

liquids is long term. As mentioned previously,

the rate and extent of market penetration will

depend on the price and availability of conventional fuels and the cost (relative to existing

fuels) of producing and using coal liquids. In a

study for DOE, Energy and Environmental

Analysis, Inc., estimated that coal liquefaction

plants will first become commercially profitable

between 1988 and 2005.

4

’ Some industry

“Energy and Environmental Analysis, Inc., Integration of Um

certaitlty i}) to ]ndustriui E~w/uatiom L~} Fossil Energy ~Pchn LO/-

o,gies, February 1977.
Ch. 10— Technology ● 3 5 9

sources predict that synthetic fuels could be

available at approximately double the cost of

producing liquid fuels from crude oil at current

rates. On this basis and assuming assuming a 3-

percent-per-year real increase in the current

price of imported crude, (about $13 a barrel)

coal liquids r-night become profitable around

2000.

Estimates of capital costs for coal liquefaction

plants with 50,000 -bbl-per-day capacity range

from $650 million to $850 million.” These

figures should be regarded with caution.

Changes in institutional, environmental, economic, and technological factors could have significant effects on investment and funding

levels. Moreover, few firms may be willing to

invest in large-scale liquefaction plants until

pilot plants have been successfully built and

operated. This itself is a lengthy and expensive

process, requiring at least 4 years and (depending on pilot plant size), $50 million to $200

million. 43

Alcohol Fuel and Alcohol= Gasoline

Blends

Alcohol fuels generally involve the use of

either ethanol or methanol, although higher

alcohols and ether are potential, but less likely,

candidates. Ethanol (grain alcohol) can b e

manufactured by fermentation from biomass

(i. e., municipal and agricultural wastes, plants,

grain, etc. ).

Methanol is currently produced from natural

gas, heavy residuals, or naphtha. Recent research on synthetic fuels has also illustrated the

potential for producing methanol from coal.

Methanol can also be produced from biomass,

but not as readily as ethanol.

Alcohol can be used as an automotive fuel in

two ways. It can be blended with regular gasoline in concentrations of up to 20 to 30 percent

by volume with only minor changes in automobile engines and fuel systems. Pure (neat) methanol or ethanol can be used only if the engine

and fuel system are modified.

The high octane rating of alcohol allows for

an increased compression ratio, which in turn

provides better thermal efficiency. Thus, although the Btu content per unit volume of alcohol is only about half that of gasoline, it offers potential energy efficiency improvements of

3 to 10 percent relative to gasoline on a weight

basis. ”

Problems associated with the use of neat

methanol include corrosion, cold starting, and

vaporlock. However, such problems are routinely solved during the development phase of

various gasoline engine changes, and demonstration vehicles burning neat methanol have

been successful.

The costs of modifying engine carburetion

and fuel feed systems for the use of alcoholgasoline blends are minor. In many cases, all

that is required is carburetor adjustment. In

these terms, the potential for the use of alcohol

blends is greater than that for neat alcohol. Alcohol fuels can also be used in gas turbines, in

external combustion engines such as the Stirling, and in boiler heating applications.

The emission characteristics of engines burning alcohol fuels compare favorably with gasoline-powered engines. In general, pure alcohol

fuel shows a reduction in hydrocarbons, carbon

monoxide, and nitrogen oxides, although the

data are not perfectly uniform or consistent.

Emissions tests using pure methanol have shown

reductions in NOX by a factor of two to three

over similar tests with gasoline. Ethanol does

not appear to offer as much of a reduction in

regulated pollutants as methanol. Alcohol-gasoline blends seem to alter the emissions in proportion to the amount of alcohol in the blend.

Potential problems could exist with respect to

the level of the presently unregulated unburned

fuel (UBF) emissions of methanol engines. UBF

emissions with methanol are as much as 5 times

those of gasoline. Less than 2 percent of the UBF

emissions are hydrocarbons; the remainder consist mainly of methanol and aldehydes. These

emissions are currently unregulated; their air

pollution significance in terms of reactivity and

toxicity is not well-understood. If further study
360 ● Changes in the Future Use and Characteristics of the Automobile Transportation System

demonstrates undesirable impacts caused by

aldehyde emissions (such as formaldehyde,

which is an irritant) the potential for use of

methanol in automotive engines could be limited. This potential problem does not appear to

be as serious with ethanol fuel.

Storage and distribution is somewhat more

difficult with alcohol. Part of the problem is

that alcohol has only about half as much energy

per gallon as gasoline; thus storage facilities

must be larger to hold gasoline-equivalent

amounts of energy. Alcohol and water are miscible, To keep the fuel pure, water contamination in shipping and storing must be prevented.

Current gasoline shipping and storage facilities

permit water contamination, since the two liquids do not mix and the water can be drained off

easily. In the use of alcohol blends, water contamination will cause the two fuels to separate

into their respective phases. Ethanol is slightly

less subject to water absorption and phase separation than methanol, and may be more attractive in that respect. 45

The potential availability of alcohol depends

upon the costs of producing it relative to the

cost of gasoline production from petroleum or

other sources. Although methanol can be produced now from natural gas or petroleum, its

value as an alternative automotive fuel will

presumably rise only if it is produced from nonpetroleum sources.

The use of ethanol produced from organic

wastes could become significant in a local or

regional area where agricultural wastes are

readily available. The use of methanol could be

effective on a national scale if it is found to be

an energy-efficient, cost-efficient coal conversion product,

Manufacturers can currently produce vehicles

that will operate satisfactorily with either

methanol or ethanol blends. Autos in Brazil

have been operating routinely on 20 percent

(and even up to 30 percent) ethanol blends for

several years. Volkswagenwerk AG and General Motors have been engaged in prototype test-

“U S. Department ot Transportation, CXtice of the Secretary,

FtJPk t~)ltf hlutcritils Rl~s(lurcm for Auto)?],Thi/tvi ]}1 fhc 1980-1990

Det-adt’, Report of a Panel of the Interagency Task Force on Motor

Vehicle Goals Beyond 1980, March 1976.

ing of methanol-fueled vehicles. 46 Volkswagen’s

test fleet of 45 methanol-blend test vehicles accumulated nearly 1.8 million kilometers. The

only major, practical problem encountered was

some corrosion of materials used for some components that came in contact with the methanol

blend. Minor adjustments in carburetion are

necessary to improve vehicle driveability.

Thus, the experience of test programs and the

real experience in Brazil indicate that methanol

or ethanol blends could be widely used with little or no problem. However, the production of

alcohol fuels in large quantities will probably

not be commercially feasible until beyond 1985.

Research on the use of neat methanol indicates that driveability is presently unsatisfactory in the cold-start and warmup phase of

engine operation. Volkswagen is studying the

potential for improving driveability by mixing

additives with the alcohol fuel or by using an

auxiliary fuel during the cold-start phase.

General Motors has found the driveability of

neat methanol-fueled vehicles to be enhanced

through the use of electronic fuel injection

systems rather than carburetors. In addition,

GM’s research has shown that achievement of

acceptable driveability requires redesign of the

fuel intake system to provide the approximately

nine-times-greater mixture heating needed for

satisfactory fuel vaporization. Research is continuing in the study of various combinations of

air-fuel ratios, ignition timing, and engine compression ratios to obtain the most acceptable

compromise among driveability, fuel economy,

and exhaust emissions with methanol. Preliminary development of corrosion-resistant automotive and fuel tank storage parts necessary for

long-term methanol handling has been completed. In addition, much experience has been

gained from the use of methanol in racing cars.

The production of methanol from coal essentially requires the gasification of coal in the

presence of hydrogen under high pressure and

very high heat. Estimates of costs for coal

“ND. Bnnkman, “Vehicle Evaluation of Methano]-Compromises Among Exhaust Emlss]ons, Fuel Economy and Drivability,” Fourth ]~ztcrr~atior~ai Symposium OH Automotitle Propulsio~~ Systcrns, April 1977; General Motors Corporation, 197.5

Getzcml Motors R~~port OH Programs of PuhlIc lr~ttv-t~st, J. Van de

Weide et al. , “Alternative Fuels with Regard to LPG and

Methanol, ” F’~>urth ltItcrNatJorIal .$ymposi~(rn [Ill Automoti~~e PropulsIoTI SysteJHs, April 1977.
AGRICULTURAL

&

FOREST RESIDUE

NEW

TERRESTRIAL

PLANT

GROWTH

NEW

AQUATIC

PLANT

GROWTH

gasification vary

Ch. 10—Techno/ogy ● 3 6 1

FUELS FROM BIOMASS

with assumptions regarding

environmental regulations, coal prices, capital

costs, and the commercial application of alternative conversion processes. The fact that there

are no coal gasification plants in commercialscale operation in the United States heightens

the risk and cost for potential investors. One

estimate of capital costs for the Synthane coal

gasification process showed capital investment

figures ranging from $420 million to $737.5 million for a 250 million standard-cubic-feet-perday gas plant 47

.

The production of ethanol requires construction of fermentation and distillation facilities

that are much different than those currently

used. The ability to produce ethanol on a

smaller scale, with a local or regional resource

and market base, may offer a production adPhofo Credll U S Department of Energy

vantage over methanol from the standpoint of

facility size requirements, startup time, and

capital.

In 1974 through 1977, the Nebraska Agricultural Products Industrial Utilization Committee

conducted a fleet test with 45 vehicles using a

10-percent ethanol blend. The vehicles traveled

over 2 million miles, and no problems were reported with the use of gasohol. The Committee

is now involved in facility site selection for ethyl

alcohol plants in Nebraska.

In an effort to stimulate the development of

alcohol production facilities, the California legislature recently approved a $1.00 per gallon investment tax credit on ethanol sold as a blend

with gasoline. Gasohol is also available in Iowa

and Illinois in limited quantities. The Colorado

legislature recently approved a gasohol program

for that State, reportedly because they believe

that the use of gasohol in motor vehicles will
362 . Changes in the Future Use and Characteristics of the Automobile Transportation System

significantly relieve the air pollution problem in

the Denver area.

Current Federal policy consists of subsidizing

R&D for coal gasification and liquefaction. A

more active Federal policy might consist of price

supports and subsidies for the capital and operating costs of producing methanol from coal,

Biomass conversion to ethanol or methanol has

the inherent advantage of recycling waste products of many types; support in developing these

processes would accelerate development in this

area.

The Mobil Process: Methanol to Gasoline

Mobil Oil Corporation recently reported the

development of a process to convert methanol

to gasoline. The process, using a zeolite catalyst, basically dehydrates the methanol. ‘i-he

end products from pure methanol are gasoline

(about 38 percent), water (56 percent), and a

small amount of liquid petroleum gas and fuel

oil. The gasoline has no sulfur or nitrogen, and

has a fairly high octane rating.

It is reported that, to obtain 1 gallon of

gasoline, 2.4 gallons of methanol are required,

plus $0.10 per gallon refinery costs. Thus the

feasibility of commercializing this process depends heavily on the relative costs of methanol

versus conventional gasoline. The advantages

of this product are that no alterations are required in engines, shipping, or storage facilities.

The purity of the product and high octane rating

would also be beneficial. ‘a

JH 1~~~~~~ ta t i ~Jn ~1~ wl ]]ianl r. K(>~hl, Mob i Ie Oil Corporation a t

the Symposium (>n Alternative Fuels Ut i] iza tton, University of

Santa C]ara, Santa Clara, Cant., lune 18-23, 1Q78,

Hydrogen

In recent years, there has been considerable

interest in hydrogen as a replacement for petroleum-based fuels. Hydrogen has a high energy

content and, if burned with oxygen, is basically

emission free. If burned with air in an internal

combustion engine, Hz has potential of greatly

reduced emissions, although some NOX i s

formed and there are problems with pre-ignition

and explosions back through the intake system.

Hydrogen is very compatible with alternative

heat engines such as the gas turbine and the Stirling engine.

Other problems with hydrogen as a fuel for

ground vehicles are centered around storage and

the fueling infrastructure. Hydrogen is of very

low density as a gas (the lowest of all elements)

and would have to be stored and transported

under extreme pressure. As a liquid, hydrogen is

cryogenic, and the thermal insulation and special handling required would mean that the

general use of hydrogen would be costly. Several developments are in progress for storing

hydrogen as a metal hydride; they show some

promise, but are a long way from practical application. Since hydrogen molecules are small,

leakage would always be a problem. Because

hydrogen is colorless and odorless, leaks cannot

be easily detected or traced.

The potential for hydrogen use exists, but

general use is not expected until many problems

are solved. In addition, an adequate supply

would probably not be available until a cheap,

effective method of extracting hydrogen from

water is developed.
GLOSSARY
GLOSSARY

Acronyms

ACRS

AGT

AMC

AQCR

BLS

Btu

CAFE

CBD

CEQ

CID

CO

CPI

CVCC

CVT

DOE

DOT

DPI

D PM

E GR

EPA

EPCA

ERDA

FHWA

FMVSS

FTC

GMC

GNP

GRT

HC

HE\\’

ICE

LARPP

LDV

MMBD

and Abbreviations

mpg

MVMA

NAAQS

NAS NAE

NEPA

NHTSA

No,

OCS

OPEC

OSHA

PIES

PL

PMT

PMVI

PRT

RSV

SEC

SIE

SLT

SMSA

SRI

Sydec

TCP

TSM

UMTA

U.S.C

VMT

WAES

WOCA

365
366 ● Changes in the Future Use and Characteristics of the Automobile Transportation System

Definitions

Adiabatic—Occurring without loss or gain of heat;

in automotive engines, a design that incorporates thermal shielding to prevent radiant

heat loss-thereb y increasing thermal efficiency and allowing recapture of heat from

the exhaust stream.

Air Cushion Restraint System (ACRS)—An automotive safety device in which a sensor, activated by the rapid deceleration caused by

impact with another vehicle or a fixed object,

triggers a mechanism that inflates air bags in

front of the driver and front-seat passengers.

The driver bag is housed in the steering wheel

hub. The passenger bag is in the area typically

used for a glove compartment.

Air Quality Control Region (AQCR)—A geographic

area, designated by the Federal Government,

where two or more communities either in the

same or different States have the same air

quality or share a common air pollution problem. ACQRS were established by the Clean

Air Act of 1963 as the areas in which attainment of National Ambient Air Quality Standards is to be measured. Currently there are

247 such regions in the United States and its

territories.

Air Quality Standards—The prescribed level of pollutants in the outside air that cannot be exceeded legally during a specified time in a

specified geographic area. (Also called National Ambient Air Quality Standards. )

Allocation—An administrative distribution of funds

by the Federal Government among the States

(performed for funds that do not have legislatively mandated distribution formulas).

Appropriation—A legislative action that makes

funds available for expenditure with specific

limitations as to amount, purpose, and duration. In most cases, an appropriation act permits money previously authorized by substantive legislation to be obligated and payments

to be made. In the highway program, appropriations specify the amount of funds which

Congress will make available to liquidate

prior obligations; that is, the sum of all payments of vouchers to be submitted during a

given fiscal year. Highway appropriations

permit the payment of obligations incurred in

previous years.

Arterial—A highway primarily for through traffic,

usually a continuous route.

Authorization—Substantive legislation that empowers an agency to implement a particular

program and, in many cases, establishes an

upper limit on the amount of funds that can be

appropriated for that program.

Automated Guideway Transit (AGT)—A class of

transportation systems in which unmanned

vehicles are operated on fixed guideways

along an exclusive right-of-way. Commonly,

AGT systems are divided into three classes:

Shuttle-Loop Transit, Group Rapid Transit,

Personal Rapid Transit.

Automobile—As used in this study, a four-wheeled

vehicle, with a gross weight of less than 6,000

pounds, designed primarily for use as a passenger car. Coupes, sedans, and station

wagons of all sizes are considered automobiles. Light-duty trucks and vans, even

though used as passenger vehicles, are not

classed as automobiles. Motorcycles and

mopeds are also excluded.

Barrel—A measure of petroleum or petroleum products, equivalent to 42 U.S. gallons.

Brayton Cycle Engine—A high-speed, external combustion engine in which expanding gases from

continuously burning fuel are used to drive a

turbine. Most of the turbine output is used as

motive power, but some is used to drive a

compressor to provide air for the combustion

process. (Also known as Gas Turbine Engine. )

British Thermal Unit (Btu)—The quantity of heat required to raise the temperature of 1 pound of

water 1 degree Fahrenheit at or near 39.2 F.

(used as a measure of the energy content of

fuels).

Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE)–The

sales-weighted average fuel consumption (in

mpg) for all passenger vehicles sold by an

automotive manufacturer in a given model

year.

Capacity (Highway)—The maximum number of vehicles that can pass over a given section of a

lane or roadway in one direction (or in both

directions for a two-lane or three-lane highway) during a given time period under prevailing roadway and traffic conditions.

Categorical Grant—As applied to highway financing, funding from a higher level of government (Federal or State) that is earmarked for

expenditure for particular purposes.

Central Business District (CBD)—Usually the downtown retail trade area of a city, or generally an

area of very high land valuation, traffic flow,

and concentration of retail business offices,

theaters, hotels, and service businesses.
Glossary ● 367

Crash

Diesel

Diesel
368 ● Changes in the Future Use and Characteristics of the Automobile Transportation System

3.

4.

Interstate System-Technically The National System of Interstate and Defense

Highways; a system of freeways established by the Federal Government in 1944

to connect principal cities and industrial

areas.

Federal-Aid Urban System/-A system of

roads, including some extensions of the Interstate System, that serves major urban

activity centers and includes high-volume

arterial and collector routes and access

roads to terminals of other transportation

modes.

Fleet—The total stock of vehicles in use in the country.

Freeway (Expressway)—A divided arterial highway

designed for the safe unimpeded movement of

large volumes of traffic, with full control of

access and grade separations at intersections.

Fuel Cell—An electrical power source in which fuel

Gross

Gross

and oxidant are fed continuously to the electrodes, converting chemical energy into electrical energy directly, without the need to

recharge an electrical outlet.

National Product (GNP)—The market value

of all goods and services produced by the Nation’s economy. As calculated quarterly by

the Department of Commerce, gross national

product is the broadest available measure of

the level of economic activity.

Vehicle Weight—The weight of the empty

vehicle plus the weight of the maximum anticipated load. (See also Curb Weight. )

Highway Trust Fund—A trust fund established by

Congress in 1956 to finance construction of

the 45,000-mile National System of Interstate

and Defense Highways. Trust Fund revenues

accrue from highway user taxes.

Household—All persons occupying a housing unit.

Household Formation—The establishment of new

households (individuals, couples, or families);

the consumer unit that rents or buys and occupies housing units. New households are

formed by marriage, divorce or separation,

children moving from their parents’ homes to

their own dwelling units, or movement from

group quarters to individual dwelling units.

Hybrid Vehicle—A vehicle with two propulsion systems that use different sources of energy —

typically an energy storage system (battery or

flywheel) and an internal-combustion engine

to provide auxiliary power for periods of

heavy load, such as during acceleration or

high-speed cruise.

Hydrocarbon—An organic compound made up entirely of carbon and hydrogen.

Hydrocarbon Fuels—Fuels that contain an organic

chemical compound of hydrogen and carbon.

Intermediate-Size Car—A pre-1975 automobile industry designation for cars with a wheelbase

between 112 and 118 inches. (See Vehicle Size

Class. )

Internal Combusiton Engine (ICE)—Any engine,

either reciprocating or rotary, in which the

fuel is burned inside of the engine.

Interstate Highway System—(See National System of

Interstate and Defense Highways. )

Jitney–A car or small bus that carries passengers

over a regular route according to a flexible

schedule.

Lead —Tetraethyl lead or any other organo-metallic

lead compound added to gasoline to prevent

engine knock.

Light-Duty Vehicle (LDV)—Any motor vehicle either

designed primarily for transportation of

goods and rated at 6,000 pounds gross vehicle

weight (GVW) or less, or designed primarily

for transportation of persons and having a

capacity of 12 persons or less.

Light Truck—A truck with a gross vehicle weight of

10,000 pounds or less.

Local Street—A street intended only to provide acMass

cess to abutting properties.

Transit—For-hire, common-carrier, ground

passenger transportation service provided for

travel within communities or metropolitan

areas. Included are all forms of surface, elevated and subsurface modes that use fixed

guideways or operate on streets, highways or

waterways. All air transportation modes are

excluded.

Methanol—A light, volatile, poisonous liquid alcohol (CH40) formed in the destructive distillation of wood or made synthetically.

Middle Distillates—A category of petroleum fuel that

includes home heating oil and the diesel fuels

burned by surface transportation carriers.

Mobility—The satisfaction of travel demand. The

parameters of mobility are number of trips,

trip length, number of persons served, and the

mode of transportation.

Modal Split—The distribution of person trips by

mode of travel.

Motor Bus—A rubber-tired, self-propelled, manually

steered transit vehicle with fuel supply carried

on board.

National Ambient Air Quality Standards

(NAAQS)—The prescribed levels of atmospheric pollutants that cannot be exceeded

legally during a specified time in a specified

geographic area. NAAQSS are established by

EPA under the authority of the Clean Air Act

of 1970.
Glossary ● 3 6 9
370 ● Changes in the Future Use and Characteristics of the Automobile Transportation System

helium or hydrogen) that drives a piston. The

expanded (and thus cooled) working fluid is

compressed and reheated for another piston

stroke.

Stratified-Charge Engine—A slightly modified Otto

cycle engine in which fuel is fed into the

cylinders in a way that produces a rich fuel-air

mixture near the spark plug and a lean mixture elsewhere. The spark plug ignites the rich

mixture which, in turn, ignites the lean mixture, producing a more complete burn and in

some designs, a more efficient use of fuel.

Subcompact Car—A pre-1975 automobile industry

designation for cars with a wheelbase of 100

inches or less. After 1975 these cars are included in the small category. (See Vehicle Size

Class. )

Synthetic Fuel (Synfuel)—A fuel that does not exist

in nature, but can be manufactured or synthesized from natural materials. Generally, synthetic fuels are derived from other forms of

fossil fuels that are less convenient for consumer use. Synthetic liquid fuels are produced

from coal, shale, and tar sands.

Tar sands—Geological deposits of sand and clay that

are heavily impregnated with oil.

Three-Way Catalyst—A treatment system for automobile exhaust that employs platinum or

rhodium as the active noble metal catalyst for

conversion of HC, CO, and NOX

. The device

derives its name from the fact that it acts on

the three major atmospheric pollutants in automobile exhaust.

Transit—(See Mass Transit. )

Truck—A motor vehicle designed primarily for

goods movement which is used on public

highways and streets.

Turbocharger—An air compressor driven by exhaust

gases from an engine and used to force the

fuel-air mixture into the cylinders at greater

than atmospheric pressure, thereby boosting

the power of the engine.

Vehicle Damage Protection—Vehicle design features

intended to reduce the cost of damage to the

vehicle in low-speed collisions. These features

have no effect on death or injury to vehicle occupants. (See also Crashworthiness. )

Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT)—One vehicle traveling one mile. As an aggregate measure, VMT

represents the travel by all vehicles on a given

roadway or on all roadways in a specified

geographic area during a given time period.

Vehicle Size Class—A classification of motor vehicles

by length. Pre-1975 and post-1975 size classes

are shown in the following table:

Pre-1975 Post-1975

Subcompact (100” or less) Small (less than 100” )

Compact ( 101” -111“) Medium (100” - 112”)

Intermediate ( 112” - 118”) Large (over 112”)

Standard (119” or over)
BIBLIOGRAPHY
BIBLIOGRAPHY

ENERGY

ENVIRONMENT

373
374 . Changes in the Future Use and Characteristics of the Automobile Transportation System

SAFETY

MOBILITY
COST AND CAPITAL

TECHNOLOGY