San Joaquin Valley Unified Air Pollution Control District December 20, 2012

i

. Table of Contents, List of Figures, List of Tables

2012 PM2.5 Plan 

## Table of Contents

Executive Summary

Table of Contents

Acronyms

Chapter 1: Introduction

1.1 The Valley’s Unique Challenges

................................ ....................... 1

- 2

1.2 PM2.5 and Associated Health Impacts

................................ ............. 1

- 4

1.3 National Ambient Air Quality Standards

................................ ............ 1

- 7

1.3.1 EPA’s Standard

- Setting Process

................................ ........ 1

- 7

1.3.2 Federal PM2.5 Standards and Implementation

.................. 1

- 8

1.3.3 State Standards

................................ ................................ .. 1

- 11

1.4 Public Process of Plan Development

................................ ................ 1

- 12

Chapter 2: Risk

- Based Strategy

2.1 What is the Risk

- b ased Strategy ?

................................ ..................... 2

- 1

2.2 Background for the Risk

- Based Strategy

................................ .......... 2

- 2

2.3 How is the Risk

- Based Strategy being Incorporated into this Plan?

.. 2

- 5

2.4 Five

- Factor Exposure Assessment Methodology

.............................. 2

- 6

2.4.1 Relevance to Attainment

................................ .................... 2

- 7

2.4.2 Toxicity of Chemical Species

................................ .............. 2

- 7

2.4.3 Particle Size and Deposition

................................ ............... 2

- 14

2.4.4 Exposure to Ultrafine Particles (PM 0.1)

............................ 2

- 17

2.4.5 Population Proximity and Intake Fraction

........................... 2

- 18

2.5 Health Benefits Achieved Through 2012 PM2.5 Plan

....................... 2

- 20

Chapter 3: Air Quality in the San Joaquin Valley: Challenges & Trends

3.1 Challenges of the Natural Environment

................................ ............. 3

- 1

3.1.1 Unique Climate and Geography

................................ ......... 3

- 1

3.1.2 Valley Carrying Capacity

................................ .................... 3

- 4

3.2 PM2.5 Emissions Inventory Trends

................................ ................... 3

- 5

3.3 P M2.5 Air Quality Trends

................................ ................................ .. 3

- 8

3.3.1 Air Monitoring Network

................................ ....................... 3

- 8

3.3.2 Air Quality Progress

................................ ........................... 3

- 9

Chapter 4: Scientific Foundation and PM2.5 Modeling Results

4.1 Air Quality Research

................................ ................................ ......... 4

- 1

4.2 The Nature and Formation of PM2.5

................................ ................. 4

- 3

4.3 PM2.5 Species in the San Joaquin Valley

................................ ......... 4

- 3

4.4 Scientific Foundation for the 2012 PM2.5 Plan

................................ . 4

- 5

4.4.1 Ammonia Contribution to PM2.5 Concentrations

................ 4

- 6

4.4.2 VOC Contribution to PM2.5 Concentrations

....................... 4

- 12

4.4.3 Geologic Contribution to PM2.5 Concentrations

................. 4

- 13San Joaquin Valley Unified Air Pollution Control District December 20, 2012

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2012 PM2.5 Plan 4.4.4 Organic Carbon Formation: Summary of Research

Findings

................................ ................................ .............. 4

- 14

4.4.5 Controlling Organic Aerosol under the Risk

- Based

Strategy

................................ ................................ .............. 4

- 20

4.4.6 Condensable Particulates

................................ ................... 4

- 22

4.5 Projected Future Air Quality and Identifying the Goal

....................... 4

- 22

4.5.1 Modeling Overview

................................ ............................. 4

- 22

4.5.2 Measuring the Benefit of Control Measure Reductions

...... 4

- 2 4

4.5.3 Modeling Requirements

................................ ...................... 4

- 2 5

4.5.4 Base and Future Years for Modeling

................................ .. 4

- 25

4.5.5 Air Quality and Meteorological Models

............................... 4

- 2 6

4.5.6 Modeling Domains

................................ .............................. 4

- 2 7

Chapter 5: Control Strategy

5.1 Comprehensive Regulatory Control Strategy

................................ .... 5

- 1

5.1.1 District Regulations Contributing to Continued PM2.5

Improvement

................................ ................................ ...... 5

- 2

5.1.2 ARB Regulations Contributing to Continued PM2.5

Improvement

................................ ................................ ...... 5

- 10

5.1.3 District VOC Regulations

................................ .................... 5

- 17

5.1.4 District Ammonia Regulations

................................ ............ 5

- 18

5.2 Evaluating Control Measures for New Control Strategy

Opportunities

................................ ................................ ..................... 5

- 19

5.2.1 Evaluation of Control Measures

................................ ......... 5

- 19

5.2.2 Control Strategy C ommitments

................................ .......... 5

- 2 1

5.3 New Control Measures

................................ ................................ ...... 5

- 2 1

5.3.1 Regulatory Control Measure Commitments

........................ 5

- 2 1

5.3. 2 Rule Development Process

................................ ................ 5

- 23

5.3.3 Further Study Measures

................................ ..................... 5

- 2 4

5.4 Additional Control Strategies

................................ ............................. 5

- 29

5.4.1 Energy Efficiency

................................ ................................ 5

- 29

5.4.2 Eco

- driving

................................ ................................ ......... 5

- 29

Chapter 6: Incentive Programs

6.1 Incentive Funding

................................ ................................ .............. 6

- 2

6.1.1 Funding Sources

................................ ................................ 6

- 2

6.1.2 Incentive Strategy

................................ ............................... 6

- 3

6.1.3 Statutory Constraints on Incentive Funding

........................ 6

- 4

6.2 SIP Creditability of Incentive Programs (Rule 9610)

......................... 6

- 5

6.3 Current District Programs

................................ ................................ .. 6

- 6

6.3.1 Heavy

- Duty Trucks

................................ ............................. 6

- 6

6.3.2 Agricultural Pumping Engines

................................ ............ 6

- 7

6.3.3 Agricultural Equipment

................................ ....................... 6

- 7

6.3.4 Locomotives

................................ ................................ ....... 6

- 8

6.3.5 Forklifts

................................ ................................ ............... 6

- 9

6.3.6 School Bus Replacement and Retrofit

................................ 6

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2012 PM2.5 Plan 6.3.7 Community Incentives

................................ ........................ 6

- 10

6.4 New Potential Incentive Programs

................................ .................... 6

- 1 3

Chapter 7: Technology Advancement

7.1 Technology Focus Areas

................................ ................................ .. 7

- 1

7.2 Future Demonstration Projects

................................ .......................... 7

- 2

7.3 Demonstration Projects in Process

................................ ................... 7

- 2

7.4 Interagency Co llaborative Demonstration Projects

........................... 7

- 7

Chapter 8: Legislative Strategy and Community Outreach

8.1 Legislative Strategy

................................ ................................ ........... 8

- 1

8.1.1 Incentive Funding

................................ ............................... 8

- 2

8.1.2 Risk

- b ased Strategy

................................ ........................... 8

- 2

8.1.3 Lower Mobile Source Emissions

................................ ........ 8

- 2

8.1.4 Energy Eff iciency and Clean Energy Alternatives

.............. 8

- 3

8.1.5 Reduce Public Health Impacts from Wildfire s

..................... 8

- 4

8.2 Community Outreach

................................ ................................ ........ 8

- 5

8.2.1 Real

- Time Air Advisory Network (RAAN)

........................... 8

- 5

8.2.2 Real

- Time Outdoor Activity Risk (ROAR)

........................... 8

- 6

8.2.3 Air Quality Flag Program

................................ .................... 8

- 6

8.2.4 Check Before You Burn

................................ ...................... 8

- 6

8.2.5 Healthy Air Living

................................ ............................... 8

- 7

Chapter 9: Attainment Demonstrations, RACM, RFP, and Contingency

Measures

9.1 Attainment Outlook

................................ ................................ ............ 9

- 1

9.2 Reasonably Available Control Measures (RACM)

............................. 9

- 2

9.3 Reasonable Further Progress (RFP)

................................ ................. 9

- 4

9.4 Contingency Measures

................................ ................................ ..... 9

- 8

9.4.1 What Qualifies as a Contingency Measure?

....................... 9

- 9

9.4.1.1 Surplus Reductions from Implementation of

Traditional Regulations

................................ ..... 9

- 9

9.4.1.2 Regulations with Contingency Trigger

.............. 9

- 11

9.4.1.3 SIP

- Creditable Incentive

- Based Emissions

Reductions

................................ ........................ 9

- 12

9.4.2 Sufficient Contingency Reductions

................................ ..... 9

- 13

Chapter 10: Summary of Attainment Strategy

10.1 Summary of 2012 PM2.5 Plan Control Strategy

................................ 10

- 1

10.2 Populatio n in Attainment through Implementation of Strategy

........ 10

- 8

10.3 Health Benefits of Attainment under the Plan

................................ .. 10

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2012 PM2.5 Plan 

## Appendices

Appendix A: Ambient PM2.5 Data Analysis

A.1 PM2.5 Concentrations

— Measurement and Influences

..................... A

- 1

A.1.1 PM2.5 Monitor Types

................................ ......................... A

- 2

A.1.2 Meteorological Influences on PM2.5 Concentrations

......... A

- 2

A.1.3 Exceptional Events Influences on PM2.5 Concentrations

.. A

- 5

A.1.3.1 PM2.5 Exceptional Event Docume ntation

Submitted to EPA

................................ .............. A

- 5

A.1.3.2 High

- Wind Events Effects on PM2.5 Data

......... A

- 7

A.2 Attainment Demonstration

— Design Values

................................ ...... A

- 8

A.3 Ambient PM2.5 Concentration Data Trends

................................ ...... A

- 17

A.3.1 Days O ver the 24

- hour PM2.5 NAAQS

.............................. A

- 17

A.3.2 Seaso nal Trends

— First

- and Fourth

- Quarter Averages

..... A

- 19

A.3.3 Annual Trends of Diurnal PM2.5 Concentration Profiles

.... A

- 28

A.3.4 PM2.5 Driven Air Quality Index Analysis

............................ A

- 33

A.3.5 PM2.5 Concentration Frequency Distributions

................... A

- 38

A.3.6 PM2.5 Concen tration Distributions

................................ ..... A

- 41

A.3.7 PM2.5 Concentration by Day of Week

............................... A

- 46

A.4 Meteorology, PM2.5 Speciation, and Rule Effectiveness

.................. A

- 49

A.4.1 Meteorologically Adjusted Trends

................................ ...... A

- 49

A.4.2 Trends in PM2.5 Species

................................ ................... A

- 51

A.4.3 Effectiveness of District Rule 4901

................................ ..... A

- 55

Appendix B: Emissions Inventory

B.1 Emissions Inventory Tables

................................ .............................. B

- 3

B.2 Emissions Inventory Calculations and Revisions

.............................. B

- 18

B.2.1 Base Year Inventory

................................ ........................... B

- 19

B.2.2 Emission Forecasts

................................ ............................ B

- 19

B.2.3 Annual, Seasonal, and Mod eling Inventories

..................... B

- 20

B.2.4 Quality Assurance and Quality Control

............................... B

- 20

B.3 Emissions Inventory Improvements

................................ .................. B

- 21

B.3.1 Stationary Sources

................................ ............................. B

- 21

B.3.2 Area

- w ide Sources

................................ ............................. B

- 23

B.3.3 Mobile Sources

................................ ................................ ... B

- 26

B.4 Future Population Estimates

................................ ............................. B

- 28

Appendix C: Mobile Source Control Strategies

C.1 Passenger Cars, Light

- Duty Trucks, Medium

- Duty Vehicles, and

Motorcycles

................................ ................................ ....................... C

- 3

C.2 Heavy

- Duty Trucks

................................ ................................ ............ C

- 7

C.3 Buses

................................ ................................ ................................ C

- 10

C.4 Aircraft and Airport Ground Support Equipment

................................ C

- 13

C.5 Locomotives and O ff

- Road Rail Operations

................................ ...... C

- 15

C.6 Ships, Commercial Boats, and Off

- Road Port Operations

................ C

- 17

C.7 Recreational: Boats, Motor Homes, and Off

- Highway Vehicles

........ C

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2012 PM2.5 Plan C.8 Other Off

- Road Vehicles and Equipment

................................ .......... C

- 20

C.9 Farm Equipment

................................ ................................ ................ C

- 22

C.10 ARB Mobile

- Source RACM

................................ ............................... C

- 25

C.11 Transportation Conformity

................................ ................................ . C

- 26

C.11.1 PM2.5 Requirements

................................ .......................... C

- 26

C.11.2 Assessment of Significance

................................ ................ C

- 28

C.11.3 Conformity Budgets

................................ ............................ C

- 29

C.11.4 Local Reasonably Available Control Measures (RACM)

.... C

- 33

C.11.5 SB 375

................................ ................................ ................ C

- 35

Appendix D: Stationary and Area Source Control Strategy Evaluation

D.1 Combustion Devices

................................ ................................ ......... D

- 7

D.1.1 Rule 4203 Particulate Matter Emissions from the

Incineration of Combustible Refuse

................................ .... D

- 10

D.1.2 Rule 4307 Boilers, Steam Generators, and Process

Heaters

– 2.0 MMBtu/hr to 5.0 MMBtu/hr

........................... D

- 13

D.1.3 Rule 4308 Boilers, Steam Generators, and Process

Heaters

– 0.075 MMBtu/hr to less than 2.0 MMBtu/hr

........ D

- 19

D.1.4 Rule 4309 Dryers, Dehydrators, and Ovens

....................... D

- 26

D.1.5 Rule 4320 Advan ced Emission Reduction Options

for Boilers, Steam Generators, and Process Heaters

Greater than 5.0 MMBtu/hr

................................ ................. D

- 32

D.1.6 Rule 4352 Solid Fuel Fired Boilers, Steam Generators,

and Process Heaters

................................ .......................... D

- 39

D.1.7 Rule 4702 Internal Combustion Engines

............................ D

- 47

D.1.8 Rule 4703 Stationary Gas Turbines

................................ .... D

- 54

D.2 Industrial Processes

................................ ................................ .......... D

- 65

D.2.1 Rule 4104 Reduction of Animal Matter

............................... D

- 67

D.2.2 Rule 4311 Flares

................................ ................................ D

- 70

D.2.3 Rule 4313 Lime Kilns

................................ .......................... D

- 74

D.2.4 Rule 4354 Glass Melting Furnace s

................................ ..... D

- 75

D.2.5 Rule 4802 Sulfuric Acid Mist

................................ ............... D

- 79

D.3 Managed Burning

................................ ................................ .............. D

- 82

D.3.1 Rule 4103 Open Burning

................................ .................... D

- 85

D.3.2 Rule 4106 Prescribed Burning and Hazard Reduction

Burning

................................ ................................ ............... D

- 90

D.4 Agricultural Processes

................................ ................................ .... D

- 96

D.4.1 Rule 4204 Cotton Gins

................................ ..................... D

- 99

D.4.2 Rule 4550 Conservation Management Practices

............. D

- 104

D.5 Residential and Commercial

................................ ........................... D

- 108

D.5.1 Rule 4692 Commercial Charbroiling

................................ . D

- 111

D.5.2 Rule 4901 Wood Burning Fireplaces and Wood

Burning Heaters

................................ ............................... D

- 118

D.5.3 Rule 490 2 Residential Water Heaters

.............................. D

- 128

D.5.4 Rule 4905 Natural Gas

- Fired, Fan

- Type, Residential

Central Furnaces

................................ .............................. D

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2012 PM2.5 Plan D.6 Fugitive Particulate Matter

................................ ............................... D

- 135

D.6.1 Rule 8011 General Requirements

................................ .... D

- 138

D.6.2 Rule 8021 Construction, Demolition, E xcavation,

Extraction, and Other Earthmoving Activities

................... D

- 141

D.6.3 Rule 8031 Bulk Materials

................................ .................. D

- 144

D.6.4 Rule 8041 Carryout and Trackout

................................ ..... D

- 147

D.6.5 Rule 8051 Open Areas

................................ ..................... D

- 150

D.6.6 Rule 8061 Paved and Unpaved Roads

............................ D

- 153

D.6.7 Rul e 8071 Unpaved Vehicle/Equipment Traffic Areas

...... D

- 157

D.6.8 Rule 8081 Agricultural Sources

................................ ........ D

- 160

D.7 Additional Source Categories

................................ .......................... D

- 163

D.7.1 SC 001 Lawn and Garden Equipment

.............................. D

- 167

D.7.2 SC 002 Energy Efficiency

................................ ................. D

- 176

D.7.3 SC 003 Fireworks

................................ ............................. D

- 179

D.7.4 SC 004 Sand and Gravel Operations

............................... D

- 183

D.7.5 SC 005 Asphalt/Concrete Operations

............................... D

- 186

D.7.6 SC 006 Almond Hulling/Shelling Operations

.................... D

- 190

D.7.7 SC 007 Pistachio Hulling/Shelling Operations

.................. D

- 196

D.7.8 SC 008 Agr icultural Material Screening/Shaking

Operations

................................ ................................ ........ D

- 199

D.7.9 SC 009 Tub Grinding

................................ ........................ D

- 202

D.7.10 SC 010 Abrasive Blasting

................................ ................. D

- 205

D.8 Emission Inventory Codes

................................ ............................... D

- 208

Appendix E: BenMAP Health Benefit Analysis

E.1 Background

................................ ................................ ....................... E

- 1

E.2 How BenMAP W orks

................................ ................................ ......... E

- 2

E.3 Summaries of Health Endpoints Used in the Analyses

..................... E

- 4

E.4 Incidence Results

................................ ................................ .............. E

- 6

E.5 Valuation Results

................................ ................................ .............. E

- 7

Appendix F: Modeling Protocol

Acronyms

................................ ................................ .......................... F

- 9

1

. Introduction

................................ ................................ ....................... F

- 12

1.1 Modeling Roles for the Current SIP

................................ .... F

- 13

1.2 Stakeholder Participation in the SIP Modeling Process

...... F

- 13

1.3 Involvement of External Scientific/Technical Experts

and Their Input on the Photochemical Modeling

................ F

- 14

1.4 Schedule for Completion of the Plan

................................ .. F

- 15

2. Description of the Concept ual Model for the Nonattainment Area

..... F

- 17

2.1 History of Field Studies in the Region

................................ F

- 17

2.2 CRPAQS Relevance to SIP

................................ ................ F

- 21

2.3 Description of PM2.5 Monitoring in the SJV

....................... F

- 22

2.4 PM2.5 Air Quality Trends

................................ ................... F

- 24

2.5 Major PM2.5 Components

................................ .................. F

- 27

2.6 Conditions Leading to PM2.5 Exceedances

....................... F

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2012 PM2.5 Plan 2.7 Past Modeling Efforts and Results

................................ ..... F

- 31

3. Selection of the Modeling Protocols

................................ .................. F

- 39

3.1 Reference Year Selection and Justification

........................ F

- 39

3.2 Future Years and Justifications

................................ .......... F

- 39

3.3 Justification for Quarterly Modeling Instead of

Several Episodes

................................ ............................... F

- 40

3.4 Identification of Exceptional Events to be excluded from

Base/Reference/Future Year Modeling

.............................. F

- 40

4. Development of Emissions Inventories

................................ ............. F

- 42

4.1 PM2.5 Emissi ons Inventory Development

.......................... F

- 42

4.1.1 Background

................................ ......................... F

- 43

4.1.2 Terminology

................................ ......................... F

- 45

4.2 Point and Area Source Emissions

................................ ...... F

- 48

4.2.1 Development of Base

- Year Emission Inventory

.. F

- 48

4.2.2 Quality Assurance of Base Year Emissions

......... F

- 49

4.3 Future Year (Forecasted) Emissions

................................ .. F

- 51

4.3.1 Growth Factors

................................ .................... F

- 51

4.3.2 Control Factors

................................ .................... F

- 52

4.4 Day Specific Emissions

................................ ...................... F

- 53

4.4.1 Wildfires and Prescribed Burns

........................... F

- 53

4.4.2 Paved Road Dust

................................ ................. F

- 53

4.4.3 Unpaved Road Dust

................................ ............ F

- 55

4.4.4 Agricultural Burn Data for San Joaquin Valley

..... F

- 56

4.4.5 Ocean

- Going Vessels

................................ .......... F

- 57

4.5 Temporally and Spatially Resolved Emissions

................... F

- 57

4.6 Surface Temperature and Relative Humidity Fields

........... F

- 58

4.7 On

- Road Mobile Source Em issions

................................ .... F

- 59

4.7.1 General Methodology

................................ .......... F

- 60

4.8 Biogenic Emissions

................................ ............................ F

- 65

4.9 Spatial Allocation

................................ ................................ F

- 67

4.9.1 Grid Definition

................................ ...................... F

- 68

4.9.2 Spatial Surrogates

................................ ............... F

- 69

4.10 Speciation

................................ ................................ ........... F

- 74

4.10.1 Speciation Profiles

................................ ............... F

- 75

4.10.2 Chemical Mechanisms

................................ ......... F

- 77

4.11 Quality Assurance

................................ .............................. F

- 80

4.11.1 Examples of Standard Tabular Summaries

......... F

- 81

4.11.2 Spatial Plots

................................ ......................... F

- 84

4.11.3 Time Series Plots

................................ ................. F

- 85

5. Models and Inputs

................................ ................................ ............. F

- 88

5.1 Rationale for the Selection of Models

................................ . F

- 88

5.1.1 Meteorology Model

................................ .............. F

- 88

5.1.2 Air Quality Model

................................ ................. F

- 89

5.2 Model Setup and Inputs

................................ ...................... F

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2012 PM2.5 Plan 5.2.1 Meteorology Model (modeling domains,

horizontal and vertical resolution, physics

options, regional reanalysis d ata, etc.)

................ F

- 91

5.2.2 Air Quality Model (modeling domains, horizontal

and vertical resolution, chemical mechanisms,

PM routines, initial and boundary conditions,

etc.)

................................ ................................ ...... F

- 94

5.2.3 Construction of the Simulated PM2.5 Mass

....... F

- 10 4

5.2.4 Quality Assurance of Model Inputs

.................... F

- 104

6. Meteorological Model Performance Evaluation

............................... F

- 105

6.1 Known Performance Issues of Meteorological Models in

the Complex Terrain of California and Current Attempts

to Improve Performance

................................ ................... F

- 105

6.2 Ambient Data Base and Quality of Data

........................... F

- 107

6.3 Model Performance Evaluation Procedures and

Metrics

................................ ................................ .............. F

- 108

6.3.1 Statistical Evaluation

................................ .......... F

- 108

6.3.2 Phenomenological Evaluation

........................... F

- 111

7. Air Quality Model Performance Evalu ation

................................ ...... F

- 113

7.1 Ambient Data Base and Quality of Data

........................... F

- 113

7.2 Model Performance Evaluation Procedures and

Metrics

................................ ................................ .............. F

- 115

7.3 Diagnostic Testing

................................ ............................ F

- 119

8. Attainment Plan

................................ ................................ ........... F

- 120

8.1 Calculation of Relative Response Factors

........................ F

- 120

8.2 Sulfate, Adjusted Nitrate, Derived Water, Inferred

Carbonaceous Material Balance Approach (SANDWICH)

and Potential Modifications

................................ ............... F

- 120

8.3 Estimation of Species Concentration at Federal

Reference Method (FRM) Monitors that Lack

Sp eciation Data

................................ ................................ F

- 124

8.4 Speciated Modeled Attainment Test (SMAT)

................... F

- 125

8.5 Sensitivity Analyses

................................ .......................... F

- 127

8.6 Unmonitored Area Analysis

................................ .............. F

- 127

9. Supplemental Analyses

................................ ................................ ... F

- 129

9.1 Additional Analyses to be completed to Corroborate

The Modeli ng

................................ ................................ .... F

- 129

9.2 Base Case Air

- Quality Modeling with Meteorological

Fields Generated with the Weather and Research

Forecast (WRF) Model

................................ ..................... F

- 130

10. Procedural Requirements

................................ ............................... F

- 132

10.1 How Modeling and other Analyses will be Archived

Docume nted, and Disseminated

................................ ...... F

- 132

10.2 Specific Deliverables to U.S. EPA

................................ .... F

- 133

References

................................ ................................ ...................... F

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2012 PM2.5 Plan Appendix G: PM2.5 Weight of Evidence Analysis

Executive Summary

................................ ................................ .......... i

1. Introduction

................................ ................................ ....................... 1

2. PM2.5 Standards and Health Effects

................................ ................ 3

3. Monitoring in the San Joaquin Valley

................................ ................ 4

a. Established monitoring network

................................ .......... 4

b. Extensive field studies

................................ ........................ 4

4. Nature and Extent of the PM2.5 Problem

................................ .......... 7

a. Current air quality

................................ ............................... 7

b. Seasonal variability

................................ ............................ 7

c. Diurnal variability

................................ ................................ 8

d. Chemical composition

................................ ........................ 9

e. Spatial distribution of the major PM2.5 components, local

versus regional

................................ ................................ ... 11

f. Episode development

................................ ......................... 13

5. Secondary Ammonium Nitrate Formation

................................ ......... 15

a. Chemistry

................................ ................................ ........... 15

b. Limiting precursor concept

................................ ................. 16

c. Role of ammonia in ammonium nitrate formation

............... 17

d. Role of VOC in ammonium nitrate formation

...................... 24

6. Secondary Organic Aerosol Formation

................................ ............. 32

7. Emission Sources of Wintertime PM2.5

................................ ............ 34

a. Emission Inventory

................................ ............................. 34

b. Chemical markers of source types

................................ ..... 36

c. Source appointm ent using source receptor models

........... 37

d. Photochemical modeling source apportionment

................. 41

8. PM2.5 Quality Progress

................................ ................................ .... 42

a. Annual PM2.5 trends

................................ .......................... 42

b. 24

- Hour PM2.5 trends

................................ ........................ 43

c. Meteorology impacts on air quality

................................ ..... 44

d. Annual trends adjusted for meteorology

............................. 47

e. 24

- Hour trends adjusted for meteorology

........................... 48

f. Trends in 24

- Hour, seasonal, and hourly PM2.5

................ 50

g. Chemical composition trends

................................ ............. 55

h. Emission i nventory trends

................................ .................. 57

9. Linking Air Quality Trends to Emission Reductions

........................... 58

a. NOx Control

................................ ................................ ........ 58

b. Residential w ood b urning c ontrols

................................ ...... 60

10. Modeled Attainment Demonstration

................................ .................. 62

a. Modeling results

................................ ................................ . 62

b. Benefits of emission reductions from on

- going programs

... 63

c. Evaluation of precursor sensitivity

................................ ...... 64

d. D emonstrating attainment at Bakersfield

- California

........... 70

11. Summary

................................ ................................ ........................... 71

References

................................ ................................ ........................ 72San Joaquin Valley Unified Air Pollution Control District December 20, 2012

xi

. Table of Contents, List of Figures, List of Tables

2012 PM2.5 Plan Appendix 1 California Regional PM10/PM2.5 Air Quality

Study Publications

Appendix 2 PM2.5 Source Apportionment for the San

Joaquin Valley Air Basin Using the Chemical

Mass Balance Receptor Model

Appendix 3 Source Apportionment of PM2.5 Measured at the

Fresno an d Bakersfield Chemical Speciation

Network Sites in the San Joaquin V alley Using

the Positive Matrix Factorization Model

Appendix 4 Methodology for Meteorological Adjustment of

PM2.5 Trend Statistics

Appendix 5 Speciated Linear Rollback Modeling as a

Corroborative Analysis to the Regional

Photochemical Model

Appendix 6 Unmonitored Areas Analysis

Appendix H: Emission Reduction Credits

H.1 Introduction

................................ ................................ ....................... H

- 1

H.2 Pre

- Baseline Emission Reduction Credits

................................ ......... H

- 1

Attachment 1: Development of PM2.5 Interpollutant Trading

Ratios Used in New Source Reviews within the

San Joaquin Valley

................................ .............. H

- 84

1. Introduction

................................ .................. H

- 85

2. Modeling Description

................................ ... H

- 85

3. Trading Ratios

................................ ............. H

- 86

4. Alternative Approaches

................................ H

- 88

Appendix I: Summary of Significant Comments and Responses

................... I

- 1San Joaquin Valley Unified Air Pollution Control District December 20, 2012

xii

. Table of Contents, List of Figures, List of Tables

2012 PM2.5 Plan This page intentionally blank.San Joaquin Valley Unified Air Pollution Control District December 20, 2012

xiii

. Table of Contents, List of Figures, List of Tables

2012 PM2.5 Plan 

## List of Figures

Figure ES

- 1 San Joaquin Valley Emissions Reductions, 2012 PM2.5 Plan

............. ES

- 3

Figure ES

- 2 Exceedances of PM10 Standard Eliminated

................................ ........ ES

- 4

Figure ES

- 3 San Joaquin Valley Emissions Reductions, 1990

– 2005

.................... ES

- 4

Figure ES

- 4 San Joaquin Valley PM2.5 Design Value Trends

................................ ES

- 5

Figure ES

- 5 San Joaquin Valley Ozone Trends

................................ ...................... ES

- 5

Figure ES

- 6 San Joaquin Valley Air Quality Index Trends

................................ ....... ES

- 6

Figure ES

- 7 San Joaquin Valley Topography Traps Air Pollution

............................ ES

- 9

Figure ES

- 8 Percent of Valley Population Living in Attainment Areas through

I mplementation of 2012 PM2.5 Plan

................................ .................. ES

- 1 0

Figure ES

- 9 The Valley’s Journey to Attainment

................................ ................... ES

- 11

Figure 1

- 1 Trends i n Exceedances of the 24

- hour PM 2.5 Standard

..................... 1

- 4

Figure 1

- 2 PM10, PM 2.5, Human Hair, and Fine Beach Sand

.............................. 1

- 5

Figure 2

- 1 PM2.5 Chemical Composition on Peak Days

................................ ...... 2

- 1 1

Figure 2

- 2 Relationships Between Particle Size Distribution and Respiratory

Deposition Zones

................................ ................................ ................. 2

- 1 5

Figure 2

- 3 Particle Number Depositio n Fraction (DF) and Total Particle

Deposition of PM0.1 at Rest and Exercise

................................ ........... 2

- 1 6

Figure 2

- 4 Electron Micrograph of an Ultrafine Particle

................................ ......... 2

- 17

Figure 2

- 5 Simplified Intake Fraction Model

................................ .......................... 2

- 19

Figure 3

- 1 San Joaquin Valley Air Basin

................................ ............................... 3

- 2

Figure 3

- 2 Atm osphere with and without a Temperature Inversion

....................... 3

- 3

Figure 3

- 3 Days over 35 μ g/m 3 by Month at Fresno

- First from 2010

- 2011

............ 3

- 4

Figure 3

- 4 San Joaquin Valley PM2.5 Winter Emissions Inventory Trend

............ 3

- 6

Figure 3

- 5 San Joaquin Valley Winter NOx Emissions Inventory Trend

............... 3

- 7

Figure 3

- 6 San Joaquin Valley PM2.5 Annual and Winter Inventory Trends

......... 3

- 8

Figure 3

- 7 Air Monitoring Sites within the San Joaquin Valley Air District

............. 3

- 9

Figure 3

- 8 Historical PM2.5 24

- Hour Design Value Trends

................................ .. 3

- 1 0

Figure 3

- 9 Trend of 24

- Hour Average PM2.5 Design Values at

Bakersfield

- Planz

................................ ................................ ................. 3

- 1 1

Figure 3

- 10 Trend of Annual Average PM2.5 Design Values at

Bakersfield

- Planz

................................ ................................ ................. 3

- 1 1

Figure 3

- 11 Annual Trends in Days over 35 μ g/m 3

................................ ................. 3

- 1 2

Figure 3

- 12 Trend of Fourth

- Quarter Average at Vi salia

................................ ......... 3

- 13

Figure 4

- 1 Comparison of 2004

- 2006 Average Annual PM2.5 Chemical

Composition

................................ ................................ ......................... 4

- 5

Figure 4

- 2 Modeled Regional Distribution of Ammonium Nitrate

.......................... 4

- 7

Figure 4

- 3 Ammonia versus Nitric Acid Measurements at Ang i ola

........................ 4

- 8

Figure 4

- 4 Abundance of Amm onia in the San Joaquin Valley

............................. 4

- 9

Figure 4

- 5 NOx Control Reduces Ammonium Nitrate Most Efficiently

.................. 4

- 9San Joaquin Valley Unified Air Pollution Control District December 20, 2012

xiv

. Table of Contents, List of Figures, List of Tables

2012 PM2.5 Plan Figure 4

- 6 Modeled Ammonium Nitrate Response to Ammonia vs

. NOx

Controls

................................ ................................ ............................... 4

- 1 0

Figure 4

- 7 Correlation B etween NOx Reductions and Observed Ammonium

Nitrate in Fresno

................................ ................................ .................. 4

- 1 0

Figure 4

- 8 PM Size Fraction for Windblown D ust from Agricultural Land

.............. 4

- 1 4

Figure 4

- 9 POA and SOA Formation Processes and Atmospheric Interactions

.... 4

- 1 5

Figure 4

- 1 0 POA Aging and Photolysis

................................ ................................ ... 4

- 1 6

Figure 4

- 1 1 Valley Trend of OC Mass as a Fraction of PM2.5 Mass

...................... 4

- 19

Figure 4

- 1 2 Winter Season Trend of Valley Average Daily PM2.5 Mass

................ 4

- 19

Figure 4

- 1 3 Average Winter Season Potassium Concentration in the San

Joaquin Valley

................................ ................................ ..................... 4

- 2 0

Figure 4

- 1 4 Air Quality Modeling Domain

................................ ............................... 4

- 2 8

Figure 4

- 15 Bakersfield

- California Carrying Capacity Diagrams

............................. 4

- 3 1

Figure 4

- 16 Bakersfield

- Planz Carrying Capacity Diagrams

................................ ... 4

- 3 2

Figure 4

- 17 Fresno

- 1st Carrying Capacity Diagrams

................................ .............. 4

- 3 3

Figure 4

- 18 Fresno

- HW Carrying Capacity Diagrams

................................ ............. 4

- 3 4

Figure 4

- 19 Clovis Carryi ng Capacity Diagrams

................................ ..................... 4

- 3 5

Figure 4

- 20 Modesto Carrying Capacity Diagrams

................................ ................. 4

- 3 6

Figure 4

- 21 Merced Carrying Capacity Diagrams

................................ ................... 4

- 3 7

Figure 4

- 22 Stockton Carrying Capacity Diagrams

................................ ................. 4

- 3 8

Figure 4

- 23 Visalia Carrying Capacity Diagrams

................................ .................... 4

- 3 9

Figure 4

- 24 Corcoran Carrying Capacity Diagrams

................................ ................ 4

- 40

Figure 5

- 1 Rule Development Process

................................ ................................ . 5

- 2 3

Figure 9

- 1 NO x RFP Demonstration

................................ ................................ ..... 9

- 7

Figure 10

- 1 Valley Residents with PM2.5 Concentrations below the Federal

24

- hour PM2.5 Standard

................................ ................................ ...... 10

- 8

Figure 10

- 2 Modeled PM2.5 At tainment Status by Monitoring Site

......................... 10

- 9

Figure A

- 1 Stagnation Episodes Comparison at Fresno

- First

............................... A

- 4

Figure A

- 2 Stagnation Episodes Comparison at Bakersfield

- California

................. A

- 4

Figure s A

- 3 .1 through 3 .4 24

- hour and Annual Design Value Trends at

Stockton Hazelton and Modesto

............................. A

- 12

Figures A

- 3 .5 through 3 .8 24

- hour and Annual Design Value Trends at

Merced

- M and Clovis

................................ ............. A

- 13

Figures A

- 3 .9 through 3 .12 24

- hour and Annual Design Value Trends at

Fresno

- First and Fresno

- Winery

............................. A

- 14

Figures A

- 3 .13 through 3 .16 24

- hour and Annual Design Value Trends at

Corcoran and Visalia

................................ .............. A

- 15

Figures A

- 3 .17 through 3 .20 24

- hour and Annual Design Value Trends at

Bakersfield

- CA and Bakersfield

- Planz

.................... A

- 16

Figure A

- 4 Trend in Days over the 1997 24

- Hour PM2.5 NAAQS

......................... A

- 17

Figure A

- 5 Trend i n Days over the 2006 24

- Hour PM 2.5 NAAQS

......................... A

- 18

Figure A

- 6 1st Quarter Average Trend at Bakersfield

- California

........................... A

- 19San Joaquin Valley Unified Air Pollution Control District December 20, 2012

xv

. Table of Contents, List of Figures, List of Tables

2012 PM2.5 Plan Figure A

- 7 4th Quarter Average Trend at Bakersfield

- California

........................... A

- 20

Figure A

- 8 1st Quarter Average Trend at Clovis

................................ ................... A

- 21

Figures A

- 9 .1 through 9 .4 1 st and 4 th Quarter PM2.5 Average Trends at

Clovis

................................ ................................ ..... A

- 22

Figures A

- 9 .5 through 9 .8 1 st and 4 th Quarter PM2.5 Average Trends at

Fresno

- First

................................ ............................ A

- 23

Figures A

- 9 .9 through 9 .12 1 st and 4 th Quarter PM2.5 Average Trends at

Corcoran

................................ ................................ . A

- 24

Figures A

- 9.13 through 9 .16 1st and 4 th Quarter PM2.5 Average Trends at

Visalia

................................ ................................ ..... A

- 25

Figures A

- 9 .17 through 9 .20 1 st and 4 th Quarter PM2.5 Average Trends at

Bakersfield

- California

................................ ............. A

- 26

Figures A

- 9 .21 through 9 .24 1 st and 4 th Quarter PM2.5 Average Trends at

Bakersfield

- Planz

................................ ................... A

- 27

Figures A

- 10 .1 through 10 .4 PM2.5 Diurnal Profiles: Stockto n

- Hazelton,

Tracy, Modesto, Turlock

................................ ......... A

- 29

Figures A

- 10 .5 through 10 .8 PM2.5 Diurnal Profiles: Merced

- Coffee, Clovis,

Fresno

- First, Tranqui lity

................................ ......... A

- 30

Figures A

- 10 .9 through 10 .12 PM2.5 Diurnal Profiles: Hanford, Corcoran,

Visalia, Porterville

................................ ................... A

- 31

Figures A

- 10 .13 through 10 .1 4 PM2.5 Diurnal Profiles: Ash Mountain,

Bakersfield

- California

................................ ............. A

- 32

Figure A

- 1 1 Air Quality Index Categories

................................ ................................ A

- 34

Figures A

- 1 2 .1 through 1 2 .4 Number of Days per AQI Category per Year:

Stockton

- Hazelton, Tracy, Modesto,

and Turlock

................................ ............................. A

- 35

Figures A

- 1 2 .5 through 1 2 .8 Number of Days per AQI Category per Year:

Merced, Clovis, Fresno

- First, and Hanford

............. A

- 36

Figures A

- 1 2 .9 through 1 2 .12 Number of Days per AQI Category per Year:

Corcoran, Visalia, Ash Mountain,

and Bakersfield

- California

................................ ...... A

- 37

Figure A

- 1 3 Histogram Comparison for Fresno

- First

................................ ............... A

- 38

Figure A

- 1 4 Histogram Comparison for Modesto

................................ .................... A

- 39

Figure A

- 15 Histogram Comparison for Corcoran

................................ ................... A

- 39

Figure A

- 16 Histogram Comparison for Visalia

................................ ....................... A

- 40

Figure A

- 17 Histogram Comparison for Bakersfield

- Planz

................................ ...... A

- 40

Figure A

- 18 Box

- and

- Whisker Plot Interpretation

................................ .................... A

- 41

Figure A

- 19 Box

- and

- Whisker Plot of PM2.5 at Fresno

- First

................................ ... A

- 42

Figure A

- 2 0 Box

- and

- Whisker Plot of PM2.5 at Bakersfield

- Planz

.......................... A

- 43

Figures A

- 2 1 .1 through 2 1 .4 PM2.5 Distribution s for Stockton

- Hazelton,

Modesto, Merced

- M, and Clovis

............................. A

- 44

Figures A

- 2 1 .5 through 2 1 .8 PM2.5 Distribution s for Fresno

- Winery, Corcor an,

Visalia, and Bakersfield

- California

.......................... A

- 45

Figure A

- 2 2 Day of Week PM2.5 Concentrations at Modesto

................................ . A

- 46

Figure A

- 2 3 Day of Week PM2.5 Concentrations at Fresno

- First

............................ A

- 47

Figure A

- 2 4 Day of Week PM2.5 Concentrations at Corcoran

................................ A

- 47San Joaquin Valley Unified Air Pollution Control District December 20, 2012

xvi

. Table of Contents, List of Figures, List of Tables

2012 PM2.5 Plan Figure A

- 25 Day o f Week PM2.5 Concentrations at Visalia

................................ .... A

- 48

Figure A

- 26 Day of Week PM2.5 Concentrations at Bakersfield

- California

............. A

- 48

Figure A

- 27 Meteorologically Adjusted PM2.5 Trend for Bakersfield

...................... A

- 50

Figure A

- 28 Meteorologically Adjusted PM2.5 Trend for Fresno

............................. A

- 51

Figure A

- 29 Species Contribution to PM2.5 Mass in Fresno

................................ ... A

- 52

Figure A

- 3 0 Species Contribution to PM2.5 Mass in Bakersfield

............................ A

- 52

Figure A

- 3 1 PM2.5 Species Trends at Modesto

................................ ...................... A

- 5 3

Figure A

- 3 2 PM2.5 Species Trends at Fresno

- First

................................ ................ A

- 54

Figure A

- 3 3 PM2.5 Species Trends at Visalia

................................ ......................... A

- 5 4

Figure A

- 3 4 PM2.5 Species Trends at Bakersfield

- California

................................ .. A

- 55

Figure A

- 35 Effect of Rule 4901 on Winter (November through February)

PM2.5 Concentrations in Fresno

................................ ......................... A

- 5 6

Figure B

- 1 Heavy Heavy

- Duty Diesel Truck Emissions Forecast:

EMFAC2011 vs

. Current Assessment

................................ ................. B

- 27

Figure B

- 2 In

- Use Construction Equipment Revised Activity Growth

Estimate

................................ ................................ ............................... B

- 28

Figure B

- 3 Temporal Comparison of Population Projections

................................ . B

- 30

Figure C

- 1 Illustration of San Joaquin Valley MPO F unding for Sample

TCM Categories

................................ ................................ ................... C

- 34

Figure D

- 1 Average PM2.5 Emissions based on Device

................................ ..... D

- 12 2

Figure E

- 1 Selected Concentration Response Functions

................................ ...... E

- 8

Figure E

- 2 Avoided Disease Incidence by 2019 Due to Lower PM2.5 Exposure

.. E

- 1 0

Figure E

- 3 Reduced Disease Symptoms and Lost Work by 2019

......................... E

- 1 0

Figure E

- 4 County Annual Avoided Deaths due to Premature Mortality by 2019

. E

- 1 1

Figure E

- 5 County Annual Avoided Non

- Fatal Health Costs by 2019

.................... E

- 1 3

Figure 2

- 1 PM2.5 composition on an average exceedance day

........................... F

- 28

Figure 5

- 1 The three nested grids for the MM5 model (D01 36km; D02

12km; and D03 4km)

................................ ................................ ............ F

- 92

Figure 5

- 2 Modeling domains used by ARB

................................ .......................... F

- 95

Figure 5

- 3 1

- hour O 3 mixing ratio at 3 am of Jan 10, 2007 (UTC) predicted by

CMAQv4.7.1 with the Yamartino advection scheme

............................ F

- 99

Figure 5

- 4 Difference in monthly average PM 2.5 predictions for January 2007

simulated using CMAQv4.7.1 with the PPM and Yamartino

schemes

................................ ................................ ............................. F

- 100

Figure 5

- 5 Comparison of MOZART (red) simulated CO (left), ozone

(center), and PAN (right) to observations (black) along the

DC

- 8 flight track. Shown are mean (filled symbol), median (open

symbols), 10th and 90th percentiles (bars) and extremes

(lines). The number of data points per 1

- km wide altitude bin is

shown next to the gr aphs. Adapted from Figure 2 in Pfister et al.

(2011).

. ................................ ................................ ............................... F

- 101San Joaquin Valley Unified Air Pollution Control District December 20, 2012

xvii

. Table of Contents, List of Figures, List of Tables

2012 PM2.5 Plan Figure 5

- 6 Difference in average PM2.5 prediction for January 2007 between

simulation with the nested domain and simulation using 4km grid

for the entire coarse domain

................................ ............................... F

- 103

Figure 6

- 1 Terrain height changes along with counties and major rivers and

lakes in California (http://geology.com/state

- map/california.shtml)

...... F

- 107

Figure 7

- 1 Example of “bugle plots” showing PM2.5 actual model performance

As compared to model performance criter ia and goals (from

Boylan and Russell, 2006)

................................ ................................ .. F

- 117

Figure 7

- 2 Example of a “soccer plot” showing PM2.5 fractional bias and error

(from Tesche et al., 2006)

................................ ................................ ... F

- 117

Figure 7

- 3 An example of a Taylor diagram

................................ ......................... F

- 118

Figure 1 PM2.5 particle diameter compared to the thickness of a single

strand of hair

................................ ................................ ....................... 3

Figure 2 San Joaquin Valley PM2.5 monitoring network (FRMs and FEMs,

October 2012)

................................ ................................ ..................... 4

Figure 3 CRPAQS monitoring program

................................ ............................. 5

Figure 4 2011 24

- hour design values

................................ ................................ 7

Figure 5 S easonal variation in PM2.5 concentrations at Bakersfield

California

................................ ................................ ............................. 8

Figure 6 Variation in hourly PM2.5 concentrations during the winter at

Fresno

- 1st.

................................ ................................ .......................... 9

Figure 7 2009

- 2011 average peak day PM2.5 chemical composition

at a) Bakersfield, b) Fresno, and c) Modesto

................................ ...... 10

Figure 8 Spatial distribution of winter ammonium nitrate concentrations

measured during CRPAQS (Chow et al., 2005)

................................ .. 12

Figure 9 Spatial distribution of annual ammonia (NH3) concentrations

(2/1/2000

- 1/31/2001) du ring CRPAQS (Chow et al., 2005)

................ 12

Figure 10 Spatial distribution of winter organic carbon concentration

measured du ring CRPAQS (Chow et al., 2005)

................................ .. 13

Figure 11 Atmospheric stability and buildup of PM2.5 concentrations at an

urban site (Fresno) and a rural site (Selma) in the Fresno area

during the December 2000 CRPAQS episo de

................................ .... 13

Figure 12 Ammonium nitrate concentrations at Bakersfield during the

2000/2001 CRPAQS episode

................................ ............................. 14

Figure 13 Ammonium nitrate formation

................................ ............................... 16

Figure 14 Reducing the less abun dant precursor is more effective in reducing

ammonium nitrate

................................ ................................ ............... 17

Figure 15 Reducing the more abundant precursor is less effective in reducing

ammonium nitrate

................................ ................................ ............... 17

Figure 16 Comparison of ammonia and nitric acid concentrations

measured at Angiola durin g the winter of 2000/2001 as part of

CRPAQS

................................ ................................ ............................. 19

Figure 17 Comparison of ammonia and nitric acid concentrations

measured at Fresno during the winter of 2000/2001 as part of

CRPAQS

................................ ................................ ............................. 20San Joaquin Valley Unified Air Pollution Control District December 20, 2012

xviii

. Table of Contents, List of Figures, List of Tables

2012 PM2.5 Plan Figure 18 Comparison of particulate ammonium and gaseous ammonia

concentrations measured throughout the SJV during the

winter of 2000/2001 as part of CRPAQS

................................ ............ 21

Figure 19 Particulate nitrate reductions in response to 50 percent reductions in

precurs or em issions on January 6, 1996

................................ ............ 22

Figure 20 Percent ammonium nitrate reduction in response to 50 percent

reduction in NOx or ammonia emission reductions at Fresno

duri ng the winter of 2000/2001

................................ ........................... 23

Figure 21 Time series with daily observations, base case simulation results

And results from the sensitivity cases of (a) nitrate and

(b) PM2.5 at Angiola (left) and Bakersfield (right).

(Source: Pun et al., 2009, excer pt from Figure 2, pg. 406)

................. 24

Figure 22 24

- hour average NOx/VOC particulate nitrate isopleths at Fresno for

(a) all sources, ( b) diesel engines, (c) catalyst equipped gasoline

engines, and (d) upwind sources of nitrate. Units are μg/m3.

(Source: Kleeman e t al. , 2005, Figure 3 pg. 5333)

............................. 27

Figure 23 24

- hour average NOx/VOC particulate nitrate isopleths at grid

location

- 85 k m Northing, 90 km Easting for (a) all sources,

(b) diesel engines, (c) catalyst equipped gasoline engines, and

(d) upwind sources of nitrate. Units are μg/m3. (Source:

Kleeman e t al. , 2005, Figure 5 pg. 5335)

................................ ............ 28

Figure 24 The isopleths plot of PM2.5 nitrate with emission control of NOx

and VOC at Angiola (ANG) and Fresno (FEI) after a five

- day

back trajectory simulation for December 31, 2000. Units are

in μg/m3. (Source: Kleeman, M.J., personal communication, May

2008)

................................ ................................ ................................ ... 29

Figure 25 Time series with daily observations, base case simulation results

and results from the sensitivity cases of (a) nitrate and

(b) PM2.5 at Angiola (left) and Bakersfield (right). (Source:

Pun et al., 2009, excer pt from Figure 2, pg. 406)

................................ 3 1

Figure 26 Daily contributions to organic aerosol concentrations in

Bakersfield in 2000 modeled with CMAQ: Primary organic aerosols

(PA), secondary aerosols formed from biogenic VOC emissions

(SB) and secondary aerosols formed from anthropogenic source

VOC em iss ions (SA). Units are μg/m3

................................ ................ 3 3

Figure 27 Spatial distribution of annual levoglucosan measured throughout

the San Joaquin Valley during CRPAQS (Watson, J., Roth, P.,

2006)

................................ ................................ ................................ ... 36

Figure 28 Wood smoke contribution to PM2.5 at Fresno

- 1st during a

number of winter days in 200 3 and 2004 (Gorin et al., 2005)

............. 37

Figure 29 CMB model calculated 2007

- 2010 average PM2.5 source

contributions of days with PM2.5 concentrations measuring over

30 μg/m3 at a) Bakersfield

- California (BAC) between 2007 and

2010 a nd b) Fresno

- 1st Stre et ( FSF) between 2009 and 2010

........... 40San Joaquin Valley Unified Air Pollution Control District December 20, 2012

xix

. Table of Contents, List of Figures, List of Tables

2012 PM2.5 Plan Figure 30 Average high day source contributions estimated using PMF on

days with PM2.5 concentrations measuring over 30 μg/m3

at a) Bakersfield

- California (BAC) between 2008 and 2010 and

b) Fresno

- 1st Str eet ( FSF) between 2009 and 2010

.......................... 41

Figure 31 Trend in annual PM25 design values (2001

- 2011) at the Bakersfield

California, Fresno

- 1s t, an d Modesto monitoring sites

......................... 42

Figure 32 Trend in 24

- Hour PM2.5 Design Values (2001

- 2011) at the

Bakersfield

- California, Fresno

- 1s t, an d Modesto monitoring sites

...... 43

Figure 33 Trend in measured days over the 24

- Hour standard of 35 μg/m3

(1999

- 2011) at the Bakersfield

- California and Fresno

- 1st

monitoring sites

................................ ................................ ................... 44

Figure 34 Frequency of high PM2.5 days in different regions of the San

Joaquin Valley corresponding to different synoptic

meteorological conditions during the CRPAQS winter of 2000/2001

(Mac Donald et al., 2006)

................................ ................................ .... 45

Figure 35 Comparison of the 2011/2012 PM2.5 episode to the CRPAQS

episodes of 1999/2000 and 2000 /2001 at Bakersfield

- California

........ 46

Figure 36 Comparison of the 2011/2012 PM2.5 episode to the CRPAQS

episodes of 1999/2000 and 2000/2001 at Fresn o 1st

......................... 47

Figure 37 Observed and met

- adjusted P M2.5 trends in Bakersfield

................... 48

Figure 38 Observed and met

- adjus ted PM2.5 trends in Fresno

......................... 48

Figure 39 Observed and met

- adjusted trends for PM2.5 exceedance days in

a) the Bakersfi eld area and b) the Fresno area

................................ .. 49

Figure 40 Change in PM2.5 concentration frequency distribution betwe en

the 1999

- 2001 and 2009

- 2011 periods at the a) Bakersfield

California, b) Fresno

- 1st, and c ) Modesto monitoring sites

................. 50

Figure 41 Change in three

- year averages of 1st and 4th quarter

PM2.5 concentrations at the Bakersfield

- California, Fresno

- 1st,

an d Modesto monitoring sites

................................ ............................. 51

Figure 42 Changes in winter

- months average (January, February, November,

December) PM2.5 concentrations at the Bakersfield

- California,

Fresno

- 1st and Modesto monitoring sites among years with

m ost P M2.5 conducive meteorology

................................ ................... 52

Figure 43 Changes in PM2.5 monthly conce ntrations between the 1999

- 2001

a nd 2009

- 2011 three

- year periods at the a) Bakersfield

California, b) Fresno

- 1st, and c ) Modesto monitoring sites

................. 53

Figure 44 Changes in the average November

- December PM2.5

hourly concentrations between the 1999

- 2001 and 2009

- 2011

three

- year periods at the a) Bakersfield

- California, b) Fresno

- 1st,

and c ) Modesto monitoring sites

................................ ......................... 54

Figure 45 Trends in PM2.5 chemical compon ents at Bakersfield

....................... 55

Figure 46 Trends in PM2.5 ch emica l components at Fresno

- 1st

........................ 56

Figure 47 Trends in PM2.5 chem ical components at Modesto

........................... 56

Figure 48 PM2.5 and PM2.5 precursor winter emission trends in the San

Joaquin Valley

................................ ................................ .................... 57San Joaquin Valley Unified Air Pollution Control District December 20, 2012

xx

. Table of Contents, List of Figures, List of Tables

2012 PM2.5 Plan Figure 49 Compa rison between trends in Valley wide winter average NOx

E mission and PM2.5 nitrate concentrations at Bakersfield and

Fresno. Emissions and concentrations are presented as

three

- year winter averages

................................ ................................ . 58

Figure 50 Comparison of trends in wintertime PM2.5 nitrate and NOx

Concentrations in Bakersfield. Concentrations are presented as

three

- year winter averages

................................ ................................ . 59

Figure 51 Comparison of trends in wintertime PM2.5 nitrate and NOx

Concentrations in Fresno. Concentrations are presented

as three

- year winter averages

................................ ............................ 59

Figure 52 Long

- term trends in three

- year average concentrations of

PM10 nitrate and NO x in the San Joaquin Valley

............................... 60

Figure 53 Effect of SJVAPCD’s Rule 4901 on PM2.5 concentrations in

F resno

................................ ................................ ................................ . 61

Figure 54 Bakersfie ld

– Ca lifornia Isopleth Diagrams

................................ ........... 67

Figure 55 2019 top five wintertime PM2.5 emission sources within the

Bakersfield

- California 9

- grid cell area (3x3 grid cells, each measuring

4 km x 4 km with the Bakersfield

- California mo nitor located in the

center cell). Wintertime emissions expressed as an average of

January, February, November and Dece mber emissions

................... 69

Figure 56 2019 top five wintertime NOx emission sources within the

Bakersfield

- California 9

- grid cell area (3x3 grid cells, each measuring

4 km x 4 km with the Bakersfield

- California monitor located in the

center cell). Wintertime emissions expressed as an average of

January, February, Novem ber and December emissions

................... 69San Joaquin Valley Unified Air Pollution Control District December 20, 2012

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2012 PM2.5 Plan This page intentionally blank.San Joaquin Valley Unified Air Pollution Control District December 20, 2012

xxii

. Table of Contents, List of Figures, List of Tables

2012 PM2.5 Plan 

## List of Tables

Table ES

- 1 Health Benefits Achieved Through Implementation of

2012 PM2.5 Plan

................................ ................................ ................. ES

- 12

Table 1

- 1 Estimated Valley Population by County, 2010

- 2020

............................. 1

- 3

Table 1

- 2 PM2.5 Species

................................ ................................ ...................... 1

- 6

Table 1

- 3 Federal Requirements for PM2.5 Nonattainment Areas

........................ 1

- 10

Table 1

- 4 Federal Air Quality Standards and Valley Status for PM2.5

.................. 1

- 11

Table 1

- 5 2012 PM2.5 Plan Development and Public Workshop Timeline

........... 1

- 12

Table 2

- 1 Health Benefits Achieved Through Implementation of the Plan

............ 2

- 20

Table 2

- 2 Economic Costs Associated with Quantified Health Benefits

................ 2

- 21

Table 4

- 1 2019 Modeled 24

- hour PM2.5 Design Values with Enhanced

Residential Wood

- Burning Curtailment Program

................................ ... 4

- 2 3

Table 4

- 2 Attainment Demonstration―Bakersfield

- California Design

Value Site

................................ ................................ ............................. 4

- 2 4

Table 5

- 1 Adopted District Rules

................................ ................................ ........... 5

- 3

Table 5

- 2 Adopted ARB Regulations

................................ ................................ .... 5

- 1 0

Table 5

- 3 Regulatory Control Measure Commitments

................................ .......... 5

- 2 1

Table 5

- 4 Further Study Measures

................................ ................................ ........ 5

- 2 5

Table 6

- 1 Potential New Incentive Programs

................................ ........................ 6

- 13

Table 8

- 1 District 2012 Legislative Platform

................................ .......................... 8

- 1

Table 9

- 1 Kern County Attainment Outlook

................................ ........................... 9

- 2

Table 9

- 2 Emissions Inventory with Plan Control Strategy (tpd)

........................... 9

- 5

Table 9

- 3 Total Reductions Necessary to Reach Attainment (tpd)

........................ 9

- 5

Table 9

- 4 Target Emissions Levels for RFP Milestone Years

............................... 9

- 6

Table 9

- 5 RFP Target Demonstration (2014 and 2017)

................................ ........ 9

- 6

Table 9

- 6 Contingency Emissions Reductions Target (in tons per day, or tpd)

..... 9

- 8

Table 9

- 7 Reductions Surplus to RFP for Contingency (tpd)

................................ . 9

- 10

Table 9

- 8 Attainment Cont ingencies from Traditional Regulatory

Reductions (tpd)

................................ ................................ .................... 9

- 10

Table 9

- 9 Demonstration of Sufficient Contingency Reductions

........................... 9

- 14

Table 10

- 1 District Regulations Contributing to Continued PM2.5 Improvement

..... 10

- 2

Table 10

- 2 ARB Regulations Contributing to Continued PM2.5 Improvement

........ 10

- 2

Table 10

- 3 New District Regulatory Control Measures

................................ ........... 10

- 5

Table 10

- 4 District Non

- Regulatory Control Measure Strategy Summary

.............. 10

- 6

Table 10

- 5 Health Benefits Achieved Through Implementation of the Plan

........... 10

- 10San Joaquin Valley Unified Air Pollution Control District December 20, 2012

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. Table of Contents, List of Figures, List of Tables

2012 PM2.5 Plan Table A

- 1 2007 and 2008 Exceptional Events Impact on 24

- hour and

Annual PM2.5 Values

................................ ................................ ............ A

- 6

Table A

- 2 Example of High

- Wind Event Influence on Bakersfield

- Planz

Design Value

................................ ................................ ......................... A

- 7

Table A

- 3 General PM2.5 Design Value Calculation Methods

.............................. A

- 8

Table A

- 4 Single Year 24

- hour Average PM2.5 98 th Percentile

Values (μg/m 3 )

................................ ................................ ...................... A

- 10

Table A

- 5 24

- hour Average PM2.5 Design Values

(three

- year averages, μg/m3)

................................ ................................ A

- 10

Table A

- 6 Single Year Annual Mean PM2.5 Concentrations (μg/m3)

.................... A

- 11

Table A

- 7 Annual PM2.5 Design Values (three

- year averages, μg/m3)

................ A

- 11

Table A

- 8 24

- Hour PM2.5 AQI Scale

................................ ................................ ..... A

- 33

Table B

- 1 Directly Emitted PM2.5 (Winter Daily Averages in tons per day)

........... B

- 3

Table B

- 2 NOx (Winter Daily Averages in tons per day)

................................ ........ B

- 6

Table B

- 3 SOx (Winter Daily Averages in tons per day)

................................ ........ B

- 9

Table B

- 4 VOC (Winter Daily Averages in tons per day)

................................ ....... B

- 12

Table B

- 5 Ammonia (Winter Daily Averages in tons per day)

................................ B

- 15

Table B

- 6 Comparison between DOF and MPO Population Projections

............... B

- 30

Table C

- 1 Proposed Adjustment Factors for Annual Em issions

............................ C

- 30

Table C

- 2 District and ARB Control Measures Reducing On

- road

Mobile Source Emissions

................................ ................................ ...... C

- 31

Table C

- 3 Example County Emission Budget Calculation (tons per winter

season day)

................................ ................................ ........................... C

- 31

Table C

- 4 Transportation Conformity Budgets (tons per average annual day)

...... C

- 32

Table D

- 1 District Stationary and Area Source Regulations Contributing to

Continued PM2.5 Improvement

................................ ............................. D

- 2

Table D

- 2 District Combustion Devices Rules

................................ ....................... D

- 9

Table D

- 3 Emissions Reductions and Cost Effectiveness of Solid Fuel Fired

Boil ers by Fuel Type

................................ ................................ ............. D

- 41

Table D

- 4 SCR Annual Costs for a New Installation on a 1 MW Turbine

.............. D

- 57

Table D

- 5 SCR Annual Costs for a Retrofit on a 1 MW Turbine

............................ D

- 58

Table D

- 6 SCR Cost Effectiveness

................................ ................................ ........ D

- 60

Table D

- 7 Current Industrial Process Rules

................................ ........................... D

- 66

Table D

- 8 Current Managed Burning Rules

................................ ........................... D

- 84

Table D

- 9 Current Agricultural Process Rules

................................ ..................... D

- 98

Table D

- 10 Current Residential and Commercial Rules

................................ ........ D

- 1 10

Table D

- 11 Estimated Emissions Reduction

................................ .......................... D

- 116

Table D

- 12 Average Number of Days Forecast Above Curtailm ent Thresholds

.... D

- 120

Table D

- 13 Potential Emissions Reductions

................................ .......................... D

- 126

Table D

- 14 Estimated Change in Number of No Burn Days

................................ .. D

- 126

Table D

- 15 Emissions Reductions and Cost Effectiveness of Water Heaters

by Fuel Type

................................ ................................ ....................... D

- 130

Table D

- 16 Current Regulation V III Rules

................................ .............................. D

- 137San Joaquin Valley Unified Air Pollution Control District December 20, 2012

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. Table of Contents, List of Figures, List of Tables

2012 PM2.5 Plan Table D

- 17 Additional Source Categories

................................ .............................. D

- 163

Table D

- 18 City Bans of Leaf Blowers

................................ ........................... D

- 172

Table D

- 19 Emission Inventory Codes

................................ ................................ ... D

- 208

Table E

- 1 BenMAP Estimates of Mean Annual Reductions in Health Effects

Under the Plan by 2019

................................ ................................ ........ E

- 9

Table E

- 2 Annual Estimated Reductions in Non

- Fatal Health Costs by 2019

for Each Health Endpoint

................................ ................................ ...... E

- 1 2

Table 1

- 1 The Timeline for Completion of the Plan

................................ ............... F

- 16

Table 2

- 1 Major Field Studies in Central C alifornia and surrounding areas

.......... F

- 20

Table 2

- 2 PM2.5 Monitoring sites in the San Joaquin valley nonattainment

Area

................................ ................................ ................................ ...... F

- 23

Table 2

- 3 Percentiles and 24

- hour Design Value

................................ .................. F

- 26

Table 4

- 1 Inventory Terms for Emission Source Types

................................ ......... F

- 45

Table 4

- 2 DTIM Emission Categories

................................ ................................ ... F

- 63

Table 4

- 3 Summary of spatial surrogates

................................ .............................. F

- 72

Table 4

- 4 ARB’s SAPRC

- 99 emitted Organic Model Species

............................... F

- 77

Table 4

- 5 Model Species for NOx

................................ ................................ ......... F

- 80

Table 5

- 1 MM5 30 Vertical Layer Configuration

................................ .................... F

- 93

Table 5

- 2 MM5 Physics Options

................................ ................................ ........... F

- 94

Table 5

- 3 CMAQv4.7.1 Schemes used for Current Simula tions

........................... F

- 96

Table 7

- 1 Observation for evaluating model performance

................................ .... F

- 113

Table 8

- 1 The FRM sites in SJV and their companion speciation sites

................ F

- 125

Table E

- 1 2019 Modeled 24

- hour PM2.5 Design Values with Enhanced

Residential Wood Burning Curtailment Pr ogram

................................ ..... iv

Table E

- 2 Attainment Demonstration for the Bakersfield

- California Design

Value Site

................................ ................................ ................................ vi

Table 1 Comparison of NOx and ammonia emissions in selected years

............. 18

Table 2 Main emission s ources of PM2.5 components

................................ ........ 35

Table 3 Wintertime PM2.5 source contributions estimates for IMS

- 95 and

CRPAQS

................................ ................................ ................................ . 38

Table 4 2019 Mode led 2 4

- hour PM2.5 Design Values

................................ ......... 62

Table 5 Comparison of the concentration of chemical constituents for

2007 and 2019 design values at selected sites

................................ ....... 63

Table 6 Modeled reduction in 2019 PM2.5 design value resulting from 25

p ercent reduction in valle y wide precursor emissions

............................. 65

Table 7 Modeled PM2.5 air quality benefit per ton of valley wide precursor

e mission reductions

................................ ................................ ................ 65

Table 8 Attainment Demonstratio n for the Bakersfield

- California Design

Value Site

................................ ................................ ................................ 70

Table H

- 1 Estimated PM2.5 Growth, Contro l, and Estimated Offset Use

.............. H

- 7

Table H

- 2 Estimated NOx Growth, Control, and Estimated Offset Use

................. H

- 9

Table H

- 3 Estimated SOx Growth, Control, and Estimated Offset Use

................. H

- 11San Joaquin Valley Unified Air Pollution Control District December 20, 2012

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2012 PM2.5 Plan Table H

- 4 Estimated VOC Growth, Control, and Estimated Offset Use

................. H

- 1 3

Table H

- 5 List of Emission Reduction Credits PM10 and PM2.5

Precursors

................................ ................................ ............................. H

- 1 5

Table 1 Change in 2019 Design Value PM2.5 concentrations due to 50%

Reduction in daily emissions of PM2.5, NOx, and SOx from NSR

source categories within the SJV [μg m

- 3 ton

- 1]

................................ .. H

- 87

Table 2 NOx:PM2.5 and SOx:PM2.5 trading ratios for Valley

- wide emission

reductions of NSR source categories within the SJV

............................ H

- 87

Table 3 NOx:PM2.5 and SOx:PM2.5 trading ratios for county based

Emission reductions of NSR s ource categories within the SJV

............. H

- 88

Table 4 NOx:PM2.5 and SOx:PM2.5 trading ratios based on Speciated

Linear Rollback Modeling Analysis of emission reductions of NSR

source categories within the SJV

................................ .......................... H

- 89San Joaquin Valley Unified Air Pollution Control District December 20, 2012

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