Technology Assessment of Changes in the

Future Use and Characteristics of the

Automobile Transportation

System—Volume I: Summary and Findings

February 1979
Library of Congress Catalog Card Number 79-600030

For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office

Washington, D.C. 20402 Stock No. 052-003-00649-9
Foreword

This assessment deals with changes in the future use and characteristics of the automobile transportation system that are expected in

the near term (by 1985) and those that might evolve over a longer

period (through 2000 and beyond). The scope of the assessment is

broad and includes not only automobiles but also highways, fuel supply and distribution, automotive repair and service, insurance, traffic

management, and law enforcement—in short, all of the industries and

services that contribute to use of the automobile as a mode of personal

transportation.

The personal mobility provided by the private automobile will

ensure its strong appeal for the indefinite future. This report analyzes

the restraints of energy supply, environmental impacts, highway safety, and consumer cost on the further development of the automobile

transportation system. It discusses Government initiatives that may

be necessary to assure such further development.

Detailed projections, policy analyses, and technological forecasts

incorporated in this summary and findings report are published in

Volume II: Technical Report.

Russell W. Peterson

Director
OTA Transportation Group

Robert L. Maxwell, Group Manager

M. Junior Bridge Debi Chertok D. Linda Garcia

Larry L. Jenney H. James Leach Kathleen G. Lolich

Linda McCray Joel A. Miller Paula Walden

Technical Assistance

Raytheom Service Company

Consultants

Richard P. Brennan Sidney Goldstein

Myron Miller Donald E. Veraska

Cont ractors

Energy and Environmental Analysis—principally: Robert L. Sansom and James N.

Heller.

International Research and Technology—principally: Robert U. Ayres.

Purdue University, Center for Interdisciplinary Engineering Studies—R. Eugene

Goodson and Kenneth R. Friedman.

Science Applications, Inc. —David A. Couts and Yardena Mansoor.

SRI International—principally: Ronald L. Braun, David A. Curry, Mark D,

Levine, Thomas F. Mandel, Randall J. Pozdena, Robert S. Ratner, Peter Schwartz,

and Philip D. Umholtz.

System Design Concepts—principally: Lowell K. Bridwell, Joseph R. Stowers, and

Barabara Wauchope.

The Institute for Safety Analysis—Robert Brenner,

Urban Institute—Melvin Cheslow and Gerald K. Miller.

OTA Publishing Staff

John C. Holmes, Publishing Officer

Kathie S. Boss Joanne Heming

iv
OTA Automobile

Assessment Advisory Panel

William G. Agnew

Technical Director

General Motors Research Laboratories

Leo Blatz

Executive Officer

ESSO Inter-America, Inc

John J. Byrne

Chairman of the Board

GEICO and Affiliates

B. J. Campbellt

Highway Safety Rcsearch Center

University of North Carolina

Anne P. Carter

Department of Economics

Branldeis University

Frank W. Davis, Jr.

Transportation Center

University of Tennessee

Clarence Ditlow, III

Center for Auto Safety

Lament Eltinge

Director of Research

Eaton Corporation Research Center

Norman Emerson *

Executive Assistant to the Mayor

City of Los Angeles

William Haddon, Jr. 

President

insurance Institute for Highway Safety

Kent Joscelyn

Highway Safety Research Institute

University of Michigan

Joshua Menkes

National Science Foundation

Wilfred Owen

The Brookings Institution

Archie H. Richardson

President

Auto Owners Action Council

Angela Rooney

Upper Northeast Coordinating Council

Richard H. Shackson **

Director of the Office of Environmental Rescarch

Ford Motor Company

S. Fred Singer

Professor of Environmental Sciences

University of Virginia

Lawrence J. White***

Graduate School of Business Administration

New York University

Howard Young

United Auto Workers

The OTA Automobile Assessment Advisory Panel provided valuable advice, critique, and

assistance to the OTA staff throughout this assessment. Their participation, however, does not necessarily constitute approval or endorsement of this report. OTA assumes sole responsibility for the

report and the accuracy of the content.

v
Contents

Page

The Automobile—Today and Tomorrow . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3

The Base Case . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4

Energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8

Environment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15

Safety. .,....... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21

Mobility . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25

Cost and Capital . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28

Technology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32

vii
Changes in the Future Use and Characteristics of the

Automobile Transportation System
Changes in the Future Use and Characteristics of the

Automobile Transportation System

THE AUTOMOBILE–TODAY AND TOMORROW

The private automobile has provided us with a degree of personal mobility unparalleled in history. It allows great freedom of choice in places of employ=

ment and residence; provides access to shopping, education, and essential

services; and offers the means to reach recreational and cultural activities—

all of which have contributed to improving the quality of life in the United

States. In addition, the automobile manufacturing industry and its supporting

service industries area major part of our economy.

Let’s look at a few statistics. The automobile

manufacturing, sales, and service industry employs about 5 million workers, representing almost 5 percent of the total U.S. labor force. If

the picture is expanded to include all transportation-related industries, the employment figure is

estimated to be as high as 1 out of every 6 to 8

U.S. workers, Annual revenue from manufacturing, sales, and supporting services is approximately $150 billion.

Today more than 80 percent of U.S. households own one or more cars, more than 90 percent of personal travel is by automobile, and

there are now more than 100 million passenger

vehicles* on our streets and highways.

Ironically, the remarkable success of the automobile transportation system has given rise to

problems. In addition to the benefits it has provided, the automobile transportation system

today is responsible for:

● consuming about one-third of the petroIeum used in the United States each year,

‘For purposes of this study, the automobile is defined as

a vehicle designed primarily for private passenger use.

Lightweight trucks and vans were excluded.

●

●

●

which contributes substantially to the

balance-of-trade deficit, increasing oil imports, and inflation;

discharging 80 million tons of carbon monoxide, hydrocarbons, and nitrogen oxides

into the atmosphere annually;

producing an annual toll of nearly 48,000

deaths, and 4.4 miIIion injuries, at a cost to

society of over $4o billion dollars;2 and

increasing congestion on streets and highways, resulting in lost time and wasted energy.

Clearly there are both benefits and problems

in the automobile system. Achieving a desirable

balance among energy efficiency, emissions,

safety, performance, comfort, and cost will involve tradeoffs between these sometimes competing attributes.

‘These figures are total highway deaths and injuries. Of

the 47,700 fatalities in 1977, 32,600 were auto and lighttruck occupants, 8,600 were pedestrians and cyclists, 4,100

were motorcyclists, and 2,400 were heavy-truck and bus

occupants.

3
THE BASE CASE

To assist in evaluating these tradeoffs and to seine as a framework for comparing policy alternatives, we have projected a set of reference conditions,

called the Base Case. The purpose is to indicate one possible set of outcomes if current trends persist and present policies are continued. In effect,

the Base Case indicates for each issue the potential consequences of the

fundamental option of adopting no new policy and continuing on the present

course.

Base Case Assumptions

1975 1985 2000

Demographic

Population (millions) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Licensed drivers (millions). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Economic

Gross national product ($ trillion). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Disposable personal income (per capita) ($ thousand). . .

World oil price (dollars per barrel). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Gasoline price (dollars per gallon) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Policy

New car fuel-economy standards (mpg). . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

New car emission standards (grams per mile):

Carbon monoxide. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Hydrocarbons . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Oxides of nitrogen . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

214

130

$ 1.52

5.03

13.00

0.56

28.0

3.0

3.1

233

151

$ 2.22

6.72

16.50

0.77

27.5

3.4

0.41

1.0

260

177

$ 3.72

10.07

25.60

1.21

27.5

NOTE: BASE CASE ASSUMPTIONS are derived from Bureau of Census forecasts and GNP projections. The continuation of present Federal

policies regulating fuel economy, safety, and emissions is assumed. Dollar amounts are In constant 1975 dollars. Mpg IS according to Government standards; actual road mileaqe IS assumed to be 10 to 20 percent lower. Base Case assure Dtlons are described In detail In chaDter 3 of the

Technical Report.

Base Case Projections

Base Case projections indicate that, unless

there is an extreme restriction of petroleum supply, automobiles will continue to be the dominant mode of personal transportation through

the year 2000. The Federal transit assistance

programs assumed for the Base Case are expected to result in a 10- to 20-percent increase in

ridership, but the effect on automobile travel

would be small––less than 5 percent.

Base Case projections also indicate that, even

though the number of automobiles and vehicle

Supporting detail for this section of the Summary and Findings IS

contained in chapters 2 and 3 of the Technical Report.

miles traveled (VMT) continues to rise, fuel consumption would peak by the early 1980’s and

then begin to fall as smaller fuel-efficient cars

make up an increasingly greater share of the

fleet. Between 1985 and 2000, consumption is

expected to stay approximately at the 1985 level

as progressive gains in fuel efficiency are offset

by the continuing rise of VMT.

A factor that has significant influence on Base

Case projections regarding fuel consumption is

the probability that the free world’s production

of petroleum could peak sometime after 1985,

probably in the 1990’s, and that the world supply of petroleum would be constrained by production capability. The implications of this potential supply shortage are profound and pose a

4
5
Base Case projections indicate growing traffic

congestion on highways and streets. Typical urban drivers in 2000 will encounter congested

conditions and reduced travel speeds about onequarter of the time, or about 2 or 3 times as

often as today.

Under the Base Case it is projected that death

and injury rates per mile in traffic accidents will

decrease as a result of improved occupant protection and vehicle safety improvements. However, the absolute number of deaths and injuries

will keep growing and could reach 64,000

deaths and over 5 million injuries per year by

2000.

We must remind ourselves that the Base Case

is only an analytic device and not a likely

future. Actions on the part of Government, industry, and the automobile user can, and most

probably will, mitigate or preclude some of the

more adverse Base Case projections.

Base Case Projections

1975 1985 2000

FINDINGS

From the Base Case we project that:

● The Nation will face a serious petroleum shortage and a continuing

problem of urban air pollution, in part attributable to the automobile

transportation system, if present policies are continued unchanged

and if current trends of increased automobile use persist.

The Base Case also indicates that:

● Highway fatalities and injuries will keep rising to a point where the

public, the automobile industry, and the Federal Government may

want to set new or more stringent safety goals and impose additional

safety requirements for vehicles, highways, and drivers.
In sum, we find that:

● Because of energy, environmental, safety, and economic considerations, further changes in both the characteristics and the use of the

automobile transportation system will be necessary to minimize adverse impacts on society and the economy.

As a first step in this assessment, we identified a number of specific

issues that may confront Congress

tomobile. These issues are grouped

● Energy ● Environment ●

In the following sections, we

in formulating policies relating to the auinto five areas of concern:

Safety ● Mobility ● Cost and Capital

discuss each of the areas separately—

although we are well aware that they are interrelated. In each area we sum=

marize the major findings of the assessment and review some of the policy

alternatives that Congress may wish to consider. In the final section we indicate the major technological developments that may influence the evolution

of the automobile transportation system.

7
ENERGY

● Is there a need to achieve greater conservation of petroleum in automobile use?

● Is there a need to accelerate the development of alternative energy

sources for the automobile?

Total U.S. petroleum demand has reached

over 18 million barrels per day (MMBD), of

which the automobile system, exclusive of

trucks and buses, now uses over 5.2 MMBD or

about 30 percent.

What of the future? Despite current conservation measures, the U.S. demand for petroleum

will grow and could reach as high as 22.4

MMBD by 2000. The difference between need

and domestic supply, about 15.4 MMBD,

would have to be made up by imports and/or

alternative energy sources— if available.

Will There Be a Petroleum Shortage?

The likelihood of a petroleum shortage over

the next two to three decades depends on a number of factors or events:

●

●

●

It

ability of some users to convert to other

energy sources,

environmental constraints on the production and use of alternative fuels, and

the amount of conservation practiced in all

sectors that consume liquid fuels.

is beyond the scope of the present study to

investigate in detail ‘all the factors affecting

petroleum supply and demand. Several recent

studies, of which the Workshop on Alternative

Energy Strategies (WAES)3 is probably the most

exhaustive, point to the possibility that world

demand for oil will outstrip the growth of oilproducing capacity by the middle or late 1980’s.

These studies show a high degree of uncertainty

about the long-term forecasts for oil supply. For

example, if the Soviet Union decides to, or finds

it necessary to, import oil from the Middle East,

the strain on the free world oil supply would increase significantly. If, on the other hand, the

People’s Republic of China finds quantities of

oil and decides to become an oil-exporting nation, or if major new discoveries in Mexico and

other parts of the world are brought to the market, the strain on oil supply would be lessened.

The WAES projections of petroleum supply

and demand to the year 2000 found that, while

potential (maximum) production of petroleum

appears sufficient up to 1985, supply would

drop rapidly thereafter. By the year 2000, large

deficits of oil supply were projected for all

WAES scenarios, such that one-quarter to onethird of previous demand would be unsatisfied.

This projection was made even under assumptions of rising energy prices, WAES concluded

‘MIT Workshop on Alternative Energy Strategies

(WAES), ~HL>rgy: Global ~rospects 1985-2000 (New York:

McGraw-Hill, 1977).

8
17.5

9.7

U.S. Petroleum Supply and Demand (MMBD)

Demand —

22.4

Demand for petroleum imports

and alternate fuels

1976 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

SOURCE Adapted from SydecEEA p Ill 2

that balancing energy supply and demand by

the year 2000, while maintaining economic

growth, would require a massive shift to nuclear

energy and coal, with petroleum reserved almost exclusively for transport and petrochemical feedstocks. Domestic and industrial users of

petroleum would need to shift to other energy

sources. WAES also concluded that, while there

is a range of opportunities for maintaining an

adequate energy supply, all require enormous

efforts in planning, intensive engineering efforts, and major capital investments, with leadtimes usually of 10 or more years. To achieve

this result, most of these efforts would have to

be well under way by 1980-85.

Are the WAES projections too pessimistic?

Although there is no question that there is only

a finite amount of oil and that there are limits to

the rate at which it can be recovered, differences

of opinion do exist

world’s ultimately

regarding estimates of the

recoverable reserves. One

 25

“ 20

“ 15

.10

‘ 5

‘ o

basis for more optimistic forecasts is the expectation that new discoveries may be larger than

assumed by WAES, particularly in countries

such as Mexico that have not yet been fully explored. Another basis for a more optimistic projection is the expectation that major technological breakthroughs wiIl make it possible to recover substantially more oil from known

sources than was assumed by WAES. Neither of

these possibilities can be ruled out. The effect of

more optimistic estimates would be to postpone

the projected date for an oil shortage beyond the

year 2000.

Actually, the complete exhaustion of oil resources is not likely. As production by conventional methods declines and oil becomes more

scarce, the price will rise and more expensive recovery methods and novel technologies will be

used to produce additional oil. If major improvements in oil recovery techniques were to

be made, they would probably not raise the

9

;, , 1
25

20

15

10

5

0

U.S. Petroleum Demand

Electrical

Residential &

commercial

Industrial

Rail, air, water

Truck

Auto
100

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

Estimates of World Oil Production

A. WOCAa Case C-l

No OPEC

OPEC production

Iimit at 45 MMBD

OPEC production

Demand limit at 33 MMBD

.

. OPEC production

I

.

.

1 1 I 1 t 1 1 1 1

1975 80 85 90 95 2000 05 10 15 20 2025

C-1 Assumptions—high economic growth rate, rising

energy price, vigorous government response, coal as

the principal replacement fuel, and gross additions to

100

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

No OPEC .

production

OPEC production

. Demand limit at 40 MMBD

OPEC production

-

limit at 33 MMBD

.

.

.

1975 80 85 90 95 2000 05 10 15 20 2025

D-8 Assumptions— low economic growth rate, constant energy price, restrained government response,

nuclear as the principal replacement fuel, and gross

additions to oil reserves 10 billion barrels per year

SOURCE Workshop on Alternative, Enerqy Strategies (WAESI Energy Global

Prospec!s 19852000 p 20

peak production level. They would be more

likely to create a plateau in the production curve

or to make the decline from the peak less

abrupt.

In the classic economic sense, demand and

supply are the two sides of an equation, with

price being the variable. To put it another way,

demand cannot exceed supply if free-market

forces are allowed to determine price. On the

other hand, in the case of a decreasing supply of

a nonrenewable resource such as oil, the price

necessary to equate supply and demand would

become so high as to price millions of former

users out of the market. As the price of oil rises,

there would be strong economic incentives to

develop alternative fuels. The development

process would take many years, however, and

the decision to provide an alternate fuel supply

Would have to be made many years before the

price rise signaled the need.

This study does not attempt a comprehensive

analysis of energy supply and demand, and it is

not our role to judge the validity of the opposing

views. It is our responsibility, however, to consider the consequences for the U.S. automobile

system of a possible petroleum shortage in the

future.

Implications for the Automobile

System

It is outside the purview of this study to consider policies to allocate petroleum between

transportation and other sectors of the economy

(industrial, residential, and power generation),

or to promote conservation in other sectors. It is

11
evident, however, that if the WAES projections

are correct, all sectors of the economy will have

to take further steps to limit petroleum usage in

the future. Here we have focused on two kinds

of policies affecting petroleum usage in the automobile sector:

. Conservation, and

. Transition to Alternate Energy Sources.

Conservation

The Technical

automobile fuel

which:

Report considers a number of

conservation policies, among

●

●

●

●

●

more stringent auto fuel-economy standards,

higher gasoline taxes,

deregulation of oil and gasoline prices,

gasoline rationing, and

measures to encourage alternatives to auto

use.

More Stringent Auto Fuel-Economy Standards

A progressive tightening of the new car fueleconomy standards to 35 mpg by the year 2000

would result in savings of about 0.6 MMBD

compared to the Base Case. Increased fuel

economy can be achieved by a continuation of

current efforts to reduce automobile weight

(substitution of materials and reduction of size)

and to improve engines, transmissions, and

other components. However, these measures to

increase fuel economy might necessitate compromises in safety, utility, and performance.

A further improvement in fuel economy (beyond the 35-mpg new car average) by the year

2000 would be difficult to achieve and might

produce greatly diminishing returns compared

to raising fuel economy from 27.5 to 35 mpg. A

fleet average fuel economy greater than 35 mpg

would require fewer large cars in the fleet and

much more efficient propulsion systems—either

greatly improved spark-ignition and diesel engines or advanced Stirling or gas turbine engines. The availability of these advanced engines before 1995-2000 and their competitiveness with spark-ignition and diesel engines in

12

terms of cost, performance, reliability, and

maintainability are doubtful at the present time.

Higher Gasoline Taxes

Small, gradual increments in the price of

gasoline would not make significant reductions

in the use of fuel. Analysis of historical data

shows that a 15-percent increase in the real price

of gasoline would reduce VMT by only about 3

percent.

To achieve major VMT reductions (on the order of 25 percent) would require that the real

price of gasoline be 4 times higher than that projected for the Base Case in the year 2000.

4 Such

large increases would place a heavy burden on

low- and moderate-income families, particularly in rural and low-density suburban areas

where alternate modes of travel cannot easily be

provided. A tax rebate or gasoline stamp plan

for such families would alleviate some of the

hardship.

Oil Price Deregulation

Deregulation of petroleum prices would allow

free-market forces to allocate the limited supply

of petroleum and would serve to curtail demand. However, price deregulation could result

in a major transfer of money from consumers of

petroleum products to producers (oil companies, distributors, and leaseholders) with large

windfall profits for some, unless excess profit

taxes were imposed or unless provisions were

made to ensure the use of these profits to explore

for new sources or to develop alternate fuels.

The increased costs of gasoline and other petroleum products could result in a substantial decrease in economic growth. There could be a reduction in employment in the petroleum supply

and distribution industries, perhaps partially

offset by an increase in the number of jobs in the

alternate fuels production. It would also place a

heavy burden on low- and moderate-income

auto-dependent people.

Gasoline Rationing

Restricting fuel availability by rationing is an

effective way of distributing the burden of conserving petroleum. Despite formidable administrative problems, rationing with marketable
coupons is a reasonably equitable short-term

policy for achieving substantial and predictable

petroleum conservation. Rationing would have

limited value as a long-term policy because of its

restrictive effect on economic growth and personal mobility.

Encouraging Alternatives to Auto Use

Several measures to constrain the use of the

automobile were evaluated:

● expansion and encouragement of public

transportation,

. ridesharing systems, and

● transportation system management programs emphasizing priority for high-occupancy vehicles.

Results of the analysis indicate that the potential of public transportation, ridesharing, and

transportation system management to reduce

auto travel is small—in most cases resulting in

less than a 5-percent reduction in VMT nationally. However, the value of these measures in

improving mobility may be considerable, as discussed later in the section on mobility.

Transition to Alternate Energy Sources

Petroleum reserves are finite, and as the supply is depleted, the price will rise. Sooner or

later a shift will occur from petroleum to alternate energy sources for the automobile. Conservation policies can provide extra time and help

smooth the transition, but they cannot forestall

the need to develop alternate energy sources.

Roughly, these alternate energy sources fall

into four categories:

●

●

●

●

substitute liquid fuels derived from coal,

tar sands, or oil shale;

alcohol fuels or a combination of alcohol

and gasoline (gasohol );

electricity; and

longer term alternatives such as hydrogen

and fuel cells.

At this time there is no clear choice as to the

most economical and practical alternate energy

source for the period 1985 to 2000. Most likely,

a combination of alternative sources will be

used.

Compared to petroleum, all of the alternative

fuels:

●

●

●

are more costly, and will remain so until

the rising cost of petroleum meets the cost

of alternatives;

require more total energy (including recovery and distribution) per vehicle mile; and

will not be available in quantity before the

year 2000 unless an active development and

investment program is undertaken soon.

An expeditious transition will require the

joint efforts of private industry and Government and a stable long-term Government policy

with respect to development of alternate energy

sources. The risks are so great, the capital costs

so high, and the rate of return so uncertain that

private industry is unlikely to undertake development and large-scale investment at the presen t time without Federal Government action to

moderate these factors.

The Federal Government has a number of policy options to promote development of alternate

energy sources:

expanded research, development, and demonstration (RD&D) programs with joint

funding and attractive Iicense and patent

policies;

tax incentives to foster research, development, and use of alternate energy sources;

financial assistance (loans and grants) for

investment in extraction and production fa -

cilities;

elimination of subsidies for production of

oil and gas;

import restrictions or taxes on petroleum;

price guarantees for synthetic fuel products; and

deregulation of petroleum price.

Even with these policies, the transition to

alternate energy sources will be slow in coming.

Under current Government policies, synthetic

fuel production in the year 2000 will probably

not exceed 3 MMBD. Higher production is dependent upon much stronger Government support and much greater private investment.

13
FINDINGS

. The current program to improve fuel economy will keep total auto fuel consumption at or below present levels to the year 2000.

. A petroleum scarcity and sharply rising prices severely affecting U.S. automobile

usage are a real possibility in the late 1980’s or 1990’s with the severity depending primarily on OPEC production and pricing actions and U.S. Government

policy.

. Deregulation of petroleum price would allow market forces to balance supply

and demand but would have inflationary effects on the national economy, impose a disproportionate burden on low-income persons, and generally restrict

the use of the automobile.

. If the Nation were to face a serious or prolonged scarcity of petroleum, only rationing or very large fuel price increases through taxation or deregulation would

reduce petroleum consumption in the automobile sector by a significant

amount.

● Sooner or later a shift will have to be made from petroleum to alternate energy

sources for the automobile, and a strong Government program of support and incentives may be necessary to accomplish this in a timely manner.

14
ENVIRONMENT

● Will additional automobile emission controls be necessary?

● Which of the various emission= control measures offer the greatest

potential?

● What environmental problems are involved in the evolution of new

technologies?

Environmental problems created by widespread and intensive automobile use include air

pollution, noise, disposal of scrap vehicles, and

water contamination. The Technical Report examines each, but we consider air pollution to be

the most important, and consequently most of

our attention has been devoted to this problem.

Until recently, the amount of atmospheric

pollutants emitted bv automobiles had been growing each year. Emission controls required

by the 1970 Clean Air Act and its amendments

are helping to reverse this trend. Base Case projections for the year 2000, assuming compliance

with the 1977 Clean Air Act amendments and

no other automobile controls, show that automobile emissions for the country as a whole will

be reduced from their current levels, even

though automobile travel is expected to grow by

75 percent. Carbon monoxide and hydrocarbon

emissions from automobiles are projected to

decrease by about 60 percent each. The reduction in nitrogen oxide emissions will be smaller—about 30 percent.

Why then is there still an automobile emission-control problem? Base Case projections

show that despite the progress made in reducing

auto emissions, air quality in a significant number of our urban areas ‘will fall short of the

standards established by the Clean Air Act. In

part, this will be attributable to automobile

emissions because:

● The emission-control devices now in use

may lose much of their effectiveness if not

properly maintained, resulting in higher

levels of emissions from the average car on

the road.

National aggregate air pollution figures do

not fully reveal the effects on the population in

areas of extensive and concentrated automobile

use—chiefly the central parts of cities, but

sometimes the surrounding suburbs as well. In

urban areas, where population density and

automobile use are the greatest and where air

pollution from nonautomobile sources also

tends to be high, it is estimated that between

125- and 150-million people are now exposed, at

least once during the year, to concentrations of

carbon monoxide or photochemical oxidants

that exceed established Federal standards. The

effects of this exposure on human health cannot

be calculated with certainty. Estimates vary

both as to the danger and its importance for the

more vulnerable segments of the population —

infants, the elderly, and those with respiratory

or cardiac disorders. However, the evidence

clearly indicates that atmospheric pollution (to

which the automobile is a major contributor) is

cause for serious concern.

Projections of regional air quality in 1985 and

2000 show that violations of the carbon monoxide and oxidant standards, though decreasing,

will still be common occurrences. In 2000, about

10 percent of the 247 Air Quality Control Regions in the United States are expected to experience violations of the carbon monoxide standard. Violations of the standard for photochemical oxidants are expected in almost 25 percent

of the regions. Because these violations will generally occur in the most populous areas, the

number of persons exposed to hazardous con15
Automobile Emissions and Air Quality

1975 1985 2000

Emissions (millicn tons per year):

Carbon monoxide. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69.3 32.6 27.3

Hydrocarbons. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.9 3.5 2.9

Nitrogen oxides . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.0 2.7 2.9

Particulate.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.38 0.08 0.25

Total violations. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68 37 24

centrations of air pollutants will remain very

high—perhaps as many as 135 million persons,

or about half the population, in 2000. Since

automobiles are particular] y heavy contributors

to peak concentrations of carbon monoxide and

photochemical oxidants, additional measures to

control exhaust emissions may be needed to improve air quality in urban areas.

Automobiles are not the only source of air

pollution. Other transportation modes, industrial plants, power-generating facilities, commercial establishments, and home heating also

contribute substantial amounts of pollutants to

the atmosphere. It seems evident that, if the Nation is to attain the air quality goals established

by the Clear Air Act, measures to reduce all

sources of air pollution must be considered.

However, the focus here is on automobile air

pollution and means to reduce emissions from

this source. We considered the following measures:

●

●

●

16

further tightening of new car emission

standards (specifically for nitrogen oxides);

mandatory inspection and maintenance of

emission-control devices; and

control of automobile use in specific locations.

In addition to these three alternatives, we also

considered the possible environmental effects of

the introduction of new automobile propulsion

systems or fuels.

Further Tightening of New Car

NOX Emission Standards

The various oxides of nitrogen (collectively

designated NO,) are singled out for two reasons. First, projections of atmospheric pollution

under Base Case conditions show that NOx

emissions will be the major air quality problem

in coming years, and unless more stringent

measures are adopted to control NOX emissions

from all sources, air quality in many urban

areas in 1985 and 2000 will be little better than

today. Second, the most serious aspect of the

N OX problem is likely to be how to controI the

magnitude and duration of peak concentrations,

which often coincide with rush-hour automobile

traffic. Thus, a more stringent NO, standard for

automobiles may be an important strategy.

Lowering the new car emission standard for

NO, to 0.4 gram per mile could reduce the national aggregate of NOX emissions from 2.9 to

2.2 million tons per year by 2000, However,

compared with the potential improvement af-
forded by measures directed at stationary

sources, the total reduction produced by a 0.4-

gram-per-mile standard for automobiles would

be rather small, and the cost per ton of NOx

removed would be much higher. Also, lowering

the standard to 0.4 gram per mile by 1990 could

preclude diesel engines, which currently emit 2

grams per mile or more of NOx By 1990, the

level of NOX emissions from diesels might be

reduced to 1 gram per mile, but probably not

much lower—unless there is a major technological breakthrough. Elimination of diesels would,

in turn, lead to a greater proportion of cars

powered by conventional Otto-cycle engines in

the new car fleet from 1990 to 2000. Such automobiles emit more hydrocarbons per mile than

diesels. Our projections indicate that the tightening of new car NOX standards could result in

about 100,000 more tons of hydrocarbons per

year from automobiles—an increase of 3 percent in comparison with the level of hydrocarbons expected under Base Case conditions.

Mandatory Inspection and Maintenance

This measure would involve a national program of annual or semiannual inspection of all

cars, instituted with the cooperation of State

and local governments. Vehicles failing to meet

standards would be required to have adjustment, repair, or replacement of emission-control devices. It is assumed that inspection procedures would be limited to tests of CO and HC

exhaust emissions since there is, at present, no

practical test procedure for NO. emissions in

general use.

It is projected that mandatory inspection and

maintenance would reduce CO emissions by

almost 17 million tons per year for the country

as a whole in 2000. This would constitute a

reduction of nearly 65 percent in automobile

CO emissions and a reduction of 35 percent in

CO from all sources. The reduction of HC

would be less — slightly over 1 million tons per

year in 2000, or 40 percent less than automobile

HC emissions in the Base Case.

Mandatory inspection and maintenance thus

appears to have great potential as a means to

reduce automobile emissions. s However, a

word of caution is needed about the magnitude

of the projected effects. The benefits of inspection and maintenance depend heavily on esti51nspection and maintenance could also produce important secondary benefits in terms of fuel economy and c(lrrect ion of safety defects.

17
mates of the deterioration rates of emissioncontrol devices— oxidation catalysts and threeway catalytic converters. These devices have

been in use for only a short time, and the data

on their continued effectiveness over .50,000 or

100,000 miles of actual driving are limited.

Estimates made by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) during the period 1975-77 indicated that the performance of emission-control devices would be relatively stable over time

and that they would lose no more than half their

initial effectiveness after 10 years of use.

; More recent data from EPA indicate that

emission-control devices deteriorate at a more

rapid rate than originally expected. For exam-”

pie, CO emissions from a vehicle certified as

meeting a standard of 3.4 grams per mile when

new are now estimated to increase to 10 grams

per mile after 5 years (50,000 miles) and 22

grams per mile after 10 years (100,000 miles).

Similar sixfold to eightfold increases are estimated for HC and NOX emissions after 10 years

on the road without maintenance or repair of

the emission-control system.

Thus, the benefits of inspection and maintenance are proportional to the assumed deterioration rates of emission-control devices and

the assumed degree of correction that can be accomplished by maintenance. The findings presented here and in the Technical Report are

based upon the most recent (1978) EPA data. If

the EPA estimates are accurate, the benefits of

mandatory inspection and maintenance would

be very great, If, however, the EPA estimates

are overly pessimistic and emission-control devices do not lose their effectiveness as rapidly

as now believed, the benefits of inspection and

maintenance would be lessened accordingly, although they still might be large enough to warrant imposition of a mandatory inspection and

maintenance program. A full assessment of this

policy must await more definitive information

about the continued effectiveness of emissioncontrol devices under actual driving conditions.

18
Changes in Automobile Emissions From Base Case Year 2000 (million tons)

Control of Auto Use in

Specific Locations

Air pollution is basically a localized urban

problem, and we have examined approaches to

discourage auto use in urban areas during rush

hours. Possible measures that could be adopted

are auto-free zones, restricted access by time of

day or type of vehicle, and limitation of commuter traffic (either by tax or outright prohibition ) except for multiple-occupancy vehicles.

Automobile use could also be discouraged

through restriction or elimination of parking in

congested areas by means of parking surcharges, elimination of on-street parking, bans

on parking for nonresidents, and limits on construction of new parking lots. Disincentives for

“drive alone” commuting could include priority

lanes and special parking for carpools and vanpools .

For such programs to be fully effective, it

would also be necessary to improve public transit as an alternative mode of personal transportation and as compensation for the restriction of

automobile use.

Environmental Impacts of New

Technology

The advent of new technology for automobile

propulsion systems and fuels raises the prospect

Of new or more serious effects on the environment. Experience with the automobile has made

us more alert to these possibilities, and the

growth of environmental sciences has increased

our ability to detect and forestal I these effects

before environmental damage occurs.

One concern is the environmental effect of the

growing use of diesel engines in passenger cars

as a way of getting higher fuel economy. Diesels

emit 2 to 4 times more NOX per mile than sparkignition engines, Diesels also emit more particulate. Results of an EPA research program on

health effects indicate that diesel particulate

emissions produce a strong mutagenic response

under laboratory conditions and may be carcinogenic. Additional testing is needed before

diesels can be given a clean bill of health.

There may also be major environmental impacts associated with the production of synthetic fuels from coal and oil shale. Air quality

standards in regions of coal or oil shale conversion and refining might be violated. There will

also be a need to assure that mining areas are

adequately restored and that water pollution is

prevented in the Western United States, where

the bulk of mining and production would take

place.

Liquid fuels derived from coal contain high

levels of benzene (a known carcinogen). Gasoline contains approximately 2 percent benzene,

while coal liquids can contain up to 10 or 15 percent. Measures to protect worker health and

safety at coal liquefaction plants would be required. The benzene content of the fuel might

have to be reduced before it could be used in

motor vehicles.

Electric vehicles emit virtually no pollutants

on the road. However, the extensive use of electric vehicles would create increased demand for

electricity y, with a resulting increase in particulate, NO2

, and SO2 emissions if the electricity

came from coal-fired powerplants. Still, the net

effect on the environment could be favorable

since powerplants could be sited outside of urban areas and emissions from a point source

might be more easily and economically controlled than those from multiple mobile sources.

19
FINDINGS

. Additional measures to control automobile emissions will be necessary to meet

air quality standards in urban areas.

. Further tightening of new car emission standards— particularly for nitrogen oxides— would be only marginally effective.

. A nationwide program of inspection and maintenance of vehicles in use could

produce substantial reductions in automobile emissions and consequent improvement in air quality.

. Control of automobile use would be effective as a supplementary measure in

specific locations. However, as a general nationwide strategy, automobile use

controls appear to be of limited value.

. The introduction of new technology for automobile propulsion systems and synthetic fuels may create new adverse impacts on the environment. Diesel particulate emissions are of special concern because of their possible carcinogenic

properties.

. Projections of other environmental impacts of automobiles and highways—

noise, community disruption, intrusion in recreational and wilderness areas, and

disposal of scrap vehicles and parts—do not indicate the need for major new policies by the Federal Government. Present policies appear to be adequate.

20
SAFETY

● What is the expected severity of the problem?

. What should be the role of the Federal Government in traffic safety?

. What are the major issues and policy options?

The Safety Problem

Our most popular transportation system, the

personal automobile, is also a significant cause

of death, injury, and property damage. Most of

us recognize this, and few would argue against

the desirability of reducing traffic crashes. Controversy arises about how best to improve auto

safety. The definition of “reasonable” levels of

safety, establishing the amount we are willing to

pay for a safer system, and the division of

responsibility for safety improvements between

private industry, the Government, and the individual are all keenly debated issues.

Cars are leading killers of young people in the United States according to

the Public Health Service. This age

group has less driving experience; and

they are less susceptible to other killers such as heart disease and cancer.

But the fact remains that in the 15 to

34 age group, traffic crashes are the

leading cause of death.

Congress has recognized the need to improve

motor vehicle safety. With the passage of the

National Traffic and Motor Vehicle Safety Act

of 1966 and the Highway Safety Act of 1966,

Congress set the goal of reducing traffic crashes

and the resultant deaths and injuries. This action resulted in new car performance standards,

vehicle defect investigations, and enactment of

safety standards for highways, drivers, and

other elements of the automobile transportation

system.

Through the combined efforts of Federal,

State, and local governments and with the help

of industry, we are making progress. Since 1966

the rate of traffic fatalities per vehicle mile has

been reduced nearly 40 percent. Nevertheless,

the statistics indicate that we still have a problem.

Traffic Safety Data, 1977

Crashes a. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17,600,000

Vehicles involveda

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29,800,000

Injuries b . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4,392,000

Deaths C

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47,700

Auto occupants . . . . . . . . . . . . 27,400

Pickup and van occupants . . . 5,200

Motorcycle , . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4,100

Pedestrian and cyclist. . . . . . . 8,600

Truck, bus, and other. . . . . . . . 2,400

Estimated costsd

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $44 billion

Trends to the Year 2000

Historically, the number of crashes per vehicle mile traveled has been decreasing, but the

number of crashes and resulting injuries and

deaths have steadily risen, largeIy because there

are more drivers, more vehicles, and more miles

traveled. There are several factors that may increase the severity and magnitude of the safety

problem in the future.

VMT is expected to rise, as is the number of

vehicles and drivers.

The proportion of small cars in the vehicle

fleet is expected to rise.

The percentage of trucks in the fleet and

truck VMT are expected to increase.

Highways are deteriorating at a rate faster

than they are being maintained. Unless

maintenance is emphasized, the condition

of roads could contribute to an increase in

crashes.

21
Motor Vehicle Deaths, 1975 to 2000

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

SOURCE OTA projection uslng Base Case VMT adjusted for total vehicle travel

Federal Involvement

With the passage of the National Traffic and

Motor Vehicle Safety Act of 1966, and the Highway Safety Act of the same year, the Federal

Government embarked on a course of largescale involvement in the U.S. automobile-highway system. The issue was safety and the clear

need to act in the public interest.

New vehicles must comply with some 50 performance standards before they can be sold to

the public. A recent study by the General Accounting Office estimates that the enforcement

of these standards may have saved as many as

28,000 lives from 1966 to 1974.6

In addition, the National Highway Traffic

Safety Administration has an aggressive vehicle

defect and recall program. In the period 1966 to

1975, 52 million vehicles, or 43 percent of autobEffectiveness, Benefits, and Costs of Federal Safety

Standards for Protection of Passenger Car Occupants, Report to Committee on Commerce, U.S. Senate, by the

Comptroller General of the United States, July 7, 1976.

22

mobiles produced, were recalled for safety defects.

Other Federal activities under the Highway

Safety Act include driver education, highway

design, traffic laws, and accident investigation.

Analysis of Safety Factors

The widespread use of seat belts would bring

about an immediate reduction in vehicle occupant deaths and injuries. Both the Department

of Transportation (DOT) analysis and our own

study indicate the most effective approach to

achieving greater seat belt usage is by means of

a mandatory seat belt law. Whether or not this

action is politically acceptable is debatable.

other incentives for increasing seat belt usage,

such as insurance rate penalties, also merit investigation.

Passive restraints are mandated for all new

passenger cars by the 1984 model year, but the

fleet will not be fully equipped until the 1990’s.

Of the future restraint systems being considered, the most effective is expected to be the air

cushion with the use of a lap belt.
In 1974, the number of traffic fatalities decreased 9,000 from the previous year. The enactment of the 55-mph speed limit is considered

to have been an important factor in this reduction. Again, studies by DOT and our own analysis indicate that strict enforcement of the 55-

mph speed limit would be an effective means for

reducing deaths and in juries.?

The strong correlation of alcohol use and

fatal crashes has been demonstrated. Our analysis confirms this correlation and indicates that

methods — policy-related or technical —designed

to reduce drunk driving could have a high payoff .

At present, passenger vehicles meet Federal

standards for crashworthiness in impacts of up

to 30 mph. Higher levels of crashworthyiness are

possible and would help reduce death and injury. Preliminary results of the Research Safety

Vehicle program of DOT indicate that high levels of vehicle safety can be achieved at an acceptable cost, while also meeting fuel-economy

requirements.

The design and condition of the highway and

‘The 55-mph speed limit also contributed to reduced fuel

consurnption,

its surroundings have an important influence on

the incidence and severity of crashes. About half

of all crashes fatal to automobile occupants involve only one vehicle—most frequently collision with a fixed object in the roadside. Important safety benefits could be realized by removal

of roadside obstacles and improved highway

design.

Goals

Specific quantitative goals and the resulting

standards for vehicle emissions and fuel economy have proved to be an effective approach. A

first step to achieving better highway safety

might be the establishment of specific and quantitative goaIs. These goals could be expressed

either as targets for reduction of highway death,

injury, and property damage, or as a scheduled

reduction in the rate of crashes as a function of

VMT.

We recognize that setting safety goals—as

well as establishing the plan and lines of responsibility for achieving them—would be a difficult

process. Still, the possible effectiveness of goals

as a means of promoting automobile and highway safety is a topic that deserves further study.

23
FINDINGS

. Traffic safety remains a perennial problem that will probably grow as the auto

fleet and number of drivers increase.

. Federal involvement in automobile safety has been effective in the past, and continued Federal presence appears needed.

. The establishment of specific quantitative safety goals may be an effective first

step to achieving improved safety, and the subject should be evaluated further.

. In the near term—the next 5 to 10 years— the greatest safety benefits could be

realized from:

—increased use of seat belts,

—strict enforcement of the 55-mph speed limit, and

—reduction of alcohol use associated with driving.

. To achieve a higher level of vehicle safety, a long-range plan should include:

—improved auto crashworthiness,

— improved occupant restraint systems, and

—improved vehicle designs to mitigate pedestrian injuries.

. There are a number of highway improvements, primarily elimination of roadside

hazards, that appear to be cost-effective.

24
MOBILITY

. Are there foreseeable problems that may affect personal mobility?

● Are there Federal actions that can assure or improve personal mobility?

Americans have come to regard personal mo- of transportation for many, it does not serve

bility as an inalienable right, and the automo- well the mobility needs of the handicapped, the

bile is viewed as the principal means to achieve elderly, the young, and the poor. Remedial

this end. To assist personal mobility, all levels policies to improve mobility for these segments

of Government have taken an active part in pro- of the population need to be considered.

moting the automobile highway system. However, there has been growing awareness in the Supporting detail for this section of the Summary and Finding is

last decade of some shortcomings in our expan- contained in chapter8 of the Technical Report.

sive system of highways and our use of automobiles.

25
Congestion

The future mobility of the population will be

influenced by demographic trends, economic

conditions, and Federal transportation policies.

Between 1975 and 2000, it is projected that the

population will increase by about 20 percent.

Urbanization will continue. More persons (particularly women) will be in the labor force, and

real income will double. Thus, by 2000 it is expected that there will be 36 percent more licensed drivers than in 1975 and 56 percent more

cars on the road. The total amount of automobile travel is projected to increase by 75 percent,

to 1.8 trillion vehicle miles annually.

The Base Case assumes that new highway

construction will taper off and not keep pace

with the growth in personal automobile travel.

It is assumed that total highway spending by all

levels of Government will remain about what it

is now in constant dollars, but by 2000 the share

spent on new construction and other capital outlays will decline by half as an increasing share of

the highway budget is spent for maintenance.

Travel times will therefore increase, particularly

in urban areas, where average speeds will be 10

to 15 percent slower. Motorists will encounter

congested conditions up to 3 times as often as

today.

To avoid this congestion and to maintain

present levels of service on the highways

through the year 2000 would require construction expenditures more than 60 percent higher

than those assumed for the Base Case. Highway

maintenance will also be an important concern.

The quality of streets and highways will deteriorate greatly, unless strong initiatives are taken

for restoration, rehabilitation, and repair.

Other Means to Improve Mobility

We considered several measures to improve

mobility. Major expansion of assistance for

public transit could increase transit ridership by

over 50 percent in major urban areas, if accompanied by appropriate auto disincentives. Such

a program would cost the Federal Government

more than $7.2 billion annually (in 1975 dollars), or about 5 times more than the 1975 expenditure of $1.5 billion. This program would

also reduce State and local transit burdens in

2000 from the Base Case projection of $4.9 billion to $1.9 billion, close to today’s level.

Within metropolitan areas, ridesharing has

the potential to reduce petroleum consumption,

emissions, consumer costs, and traffic congestion. Increased acceptance of this form of transportation depends more on institutional changes

than on financial assistance.

Transportation System Management (TSM)

techniques could be used to improve the movement of persons and vehicles in urban areas at
●

●

●

●

●

FINDINGS

Stricter fuel-economy standards, reduced highway construction, and auto disincentives to conserve petroleum and improve urban air quality will have little effect on the amount of auto travel. Only a severe petroleum shortage requiring

gasoline rationing or other allocation measures, would produce major reductions

in auto use.

Urban mobility will be hampered by increased congestion in the 1985 to 2000

time period.

Continuation of current policies can be expected to increase the transit

operating deficits borne by local governments in the future. If more Federal

funds were made available for public transportation, mobility in both urban and

rural areas could be improved, but the overall effect on the amount of automobile

travel would be small.

Increased funding for conventional transit, supplemented by special programs,

could be highly beneficial for the transportation disadvantaged.

A policy of promoting population shifts to high-accessibility areas could, in the

long-range future, reduce dependence on the automobile as a means of personal

transportation. The effects, however, might not be significant on a national

basis for as long as 50 years.

27
COST AND CAPITAL

. Is there a need to revise Federal highway and transit financing policies?

. Should the Federal Government seek to influence capital investment by

the automobile industry?

● Should the Government act to influence the direct and indirect costs of

automobile ownership?

Public and private costs of the automobile

transportation system include the direct private

costs of owning, operating, and maintaining

automobiles and the indirect costs that are paid

in the form of taxes to support the system of

streets and highways. There are also the social

costs—borne by automobile users and nonusers

alike—which include air pollution, highway

death and injury, disruption of communities,

and effects on the quality of life.

These costs give rise to three major issues:

● the appropriate distribution of public funds

for the automobile transportation system;

● the role of the Federal Government with

respect to the automobile transportation industry; and

 the private costs of owning and operating

an automobile.

Underlying these issues are fundamental questions about the form and degree of Federal Government intervention in the future automobile

transportation system. The following is a brief

summary of these issues and questions.

Public Financing of the

Highway System

Historically, a major role of the Federal

Government in transportation has been financial contribution to development of the highway

system. The Federal Government—mostly from

the Highway Trust Fund—now provides about

$7 billion of the $28 billion expended each year

on the highway system. Federal assistance for

mass transit, which amounts to about $2 billion

per year, is funded from general revenues.

Supporting analysis for this section of the Summary and Findings

is contained in chapter 9 of the Technical Report. — - —

Our analysis indicates three major questions

with regard to highway financing over the next

two decades:

●

●

●

Should the Highway Trust Fund, in its

present form, be the primary mechanism

for Federal Government financing of highways?

How much Federal support should there be

for highway maintenance?

Should the Federal Government foster

road-pricing systems as a means to reduce

congestion, to promote more efficient use

of highways, and to achieve more equitable

distribution of highway costs?

Advantages and disadvantages of transportation financing options are examined in detail in

chapter 9 of the Technical Report. These financing mechanisms include: (1) a continuation of

the present Highway Trust Fund, (2) a unified

transportation trust fund, (3) separate trust

funds for each mode of transportation, and (4)

financing from general funds.

Important to the future of the highway transportation system is the issue of highway maintenance. Our study indicates that the Nation’s

highways are deteriorating twice as fast as they

are being repaired. An adequate program of

maintenance would place a growing, and perhaps an unsupportable, financial burden on

State and local governments. The use of Federal

funds for maintenance may be required.

Analysis indicates that 40 percent of all urban

interstate travel in the last 5 years was characterized by congested conditions, and these conditions are expected to worsen. Road-pricing

schemes are one method to relieve highway congestion.

Several Federal agencies have been evaluating

congestion cost-pricing schemes to restrain traf28
fic growth. These schemes caIl for special licenses in designated areas during peak hours,

parking fees, and promotion of alternative

modes of transportation. The net value and acceptability of congestion-pricing is yet to be

determined, but it is a promising subject for further analysis.

Financing Requirements of the

Automobile Industry

The auto industry’s return on equity and profit margins are higher than many other manufacturing industries. In addition, the growth in

sales projected in the Base Case improves the

outlook for industry profitability. However, the

need for capital investment to meet Government

standards and changes in consumer demand will

increase the volume required by each firm to

realize a profit. Should a firm fail to achieve this

increased sales volume, i t would have to rely to

some extent on external sources of funds. While

Ford and General Motors are conservatively

financed and would have many options open to

them, other manufacturers would probably find

it difficult to raise funds in the market.

Automobile Industry Sales and Revenues

New car prIce by size class:

Subcompact. ... . . . .

Compact. ... ., ...

Intermediate. ... ... . .

Standard. . .,

Small luxury ... .,

Large luxury . . .

1976

$3.600

4,200

4,600

5,400

5,650

8,800

1985

Base

Case

Gross revenue per domestic car sol d 4,990 5.220

Annual domestic sales (thousands) 8,610 10.710

Annual domestic sales revenue

($ millions) . . . . $42,950 $55,940

Auto manufacturing employment

(domestic). . . . . . . . 808,800 790,800

NOTE PROJECTED SALES AND ECONOMIC DATA for the U S

auto Industry are expressed I n 1975 dolIars Employment flgures IncIude onIy passenger car and auto parts manufacture

29
The capital and cost requirements associated

with meeting Federal standards will probably

limit the ability of the smaller and less-financially secure firms to invest in both regulationinduced activities and those related to product

improvement and productivity.

In view of the interrelationship between the

industry and the national economy, the Federal

Government might be pressed to consider regulatory retrenchment or to adopt policies of indirect or direct involvement in the automobile

industry.

Private Cost of Automobile Use

How much does it cost to own and operate an

automobile? How much will it cost in the

future? These are questions of concern to every

motorist in the United States.

Costs of automobile travel represent a substantial portion of personal consumption expenditures in the United States—between 13 and

20 percent of annual household expenditures.

The costs of owning and operating an automobile, in constant dollars, have not changed

significantly over the past several years. However, the percentage of the household budget actually spent on automobile transportation has

risen because the number of households owning

more than one car has increased and the number

of those without cars has declined. The size of

the personal investment that individuals make

in automobile transportation can be seen in the

fact that, in virtually all but the lowest income

categories, expenditures for automobile transportation have replaced food as the second

largest item in the household budget.

It now costs the average driver between

$1,300 and $1,800 per year to own and operate

a car, and this is expected to rise. Maintenance

costs, in particular, are projected to increase by

10 to 20 percent in real terms between 1976 and

1985. Improved emission-control equipment is

expected to add between $50 and $200 to the

price of a new car. Improved safety can be

achieved at an incremental cost comparable to

luxury options now sold on most cars. If improved safety measures are not implemented,

death and injury will unquestionably rise and

result in higher insurance rates. The savings due

to improved fuel economy of smaller cars will,

it is expected, be offset by increased gasoline

prices.

What could Congress do about the rising cost

of automobile ownership? We selected three

cost components that may rise steeply between

now and the year 2000—insurance, repair, and

maintenance—and examined specific policies to

control these costs:

● a Federal law providing for no-fault insurance,

Costs of Owning and Operating an Automobile (cents per mile)

1974 Standard. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.6 3.7 3.5 2.2 1.8

1974 Compact. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.2 3.0 2.8 2.2 1.6

1974 Subcompact. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.5 2.7 2.2 2.2 1.6

1972 Standard. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.7 3.3 2.7 2.3 1.8

1972 Compact. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.5 2.8 2.3 2.3 1.7

1972 Subcompact. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.7 2.7 1.8 2.3 1.5

19704 door sedan. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.4 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.4

19684 door sedan. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.3 3.3 2.6 2.8 2.2

19604 door sedan. . . . . . ... ... . . 4.5 3.6 2.9 2.0 2.4

19504 door sedan. . . . . . . . . . . . 3.1 2.9 3.1 2.0 2.0

State and

Federal

taxes

1.5

1.1

0.9

1.6

1.3

1.0

1.7

1.3

1.0

1.9

1.9

2.2

1.6

Total

costs

17.0

13.9

12.0

17.4

14.1

12.2

17.5

13.9

12.1

16.5

17.0

17.8

14.8

—— NOTE: COSTS OF OWNING AND OPERATING AN AUTOMOBILE, Itemized above, are shown in cents per mile, 1975 dollars, These costs are

estimated to total between $1,300 and $1,800 per year.

30
●

●

State and local regulation of repair prac- In all three cases, it is our finding that aptices, and propriate Federal Government action could sigFederal incentives or regulations to increase nificantly benefit the automobile owner and

automobile durability and maintainability. user.

FINDINGS

Given the Base Case assumptions, we find that:

. Highway construction will decrease through the year 2000, such that the new

highway miles added to the system will fall far short of meeting the demand

created by growing automobile travel. In addition, meeting increased highway

maintenance needs and providing moderate improvements in transit service

will place a growing financial burden on State and local governments. Major increases in Federal assistance for transit operations and highway maintenance

will be needed to retain the current level of mobility and protect the investment in the highway system.

. Capital requirements for the automobile industry will increase sharply in order

to respond to changing demand and Government regulations. To achieve fueleconomy, emission, and safety standards, the additional capital needed

through 1985 may be in the range of $7 billion to $8 billion. The increase in

capital requirements and the shift to lower revenue car sizes will require increased sales volumes if this capital is to be generated internally. The smaller

domestic manufacturers will face severe financial difficulties that could affect

their survival.

. The personal cost of automobile ownership and operation (in constant dollars)

will increase in the years ahead due primarily to rising fuel prices, mandated

emission controls, safety features, higher insurance costs reflecting increased damageability and loss susceptibility of smaller sized cars, and increased costs of repairs and maintenance. Federal policies could be major

determinants of these future costs.

31
TECHNOLOGY

● What major technological developments in automobile systems can we

expect by 1985?

• What advanced automobile technology may be available by 2000?

Most technological changes in the automobile

system have been evolutionary and have been

directed toward improved performance, handling, comfort, convenience, versatility, and

styling. Manufacturers have developed and introduced those features which they felt could be

successfully marketed as standard equipment or

extra-cost options. Starting in the 1960’s, however, Government regulations concerning safety, followed by emissions and fuel-economy

standards, caused technological development to

take new directions.

Some of these new directions are summarized

in this section. The discussion is divided into

two parts: near-term technical developments to

1985, and long-term technical developments in

the period from 1985 to 2000 and beyond.

Technical Developments to 1985

Fuel Economy

The Energy Policy and Conservation Act of

1975 mandated fuel economies of 20 mpg by

1980 and 27.5 mpg by 1985 on a fleet-average

basis for each manufacturer. It appears that

these goals can be met. Many new models now

on the market have fuel-economy ratings equal

to or higher than 27.5 mpg. Methods for meeting the goals include weight reduction, more

fuel-efficient engines, improvements in transmission and drive-train efficiency, reduced

power requirements for accessories, and improved aerodynamics. The engineering and production problems in introducing these technological changes are not insurmountable. The

challenge lies in achieving a proper combination

that will attain the required fuel economy while

satisfying consumer demand for performance,

capacity, durability, low cost, and general subjective appeal.

Leadtimes in the automobile industry are such

that technological developments that can be expected by 1985, as a result of either Federal

Government stimulus or industry enterprise, are

already well underway.

The basic technological concerns of the U.S.

automobile industry in the near term are:

● achieving the currently mandated 1985

fuel-economy standards,

. meeting the 1981 emission standards, and

. improving vehicle safety, notably occupant

protection.

These objectives cannot be approached separately. Technical achievement in one area must

be carefully balanced against possible losses in

the others.

A more thorough discussion of the subjects addressed in this section is contained in chapter 10 of the Technical Report. —

The diesel engine is appearing on the

passenger-car market in increasing

numbers. Diesels have a significant

advantage over spark-ignition engines

in fuel efficiency, and they are viewed

as a way of meeting fuel-economy

standards while retaining the large

passenger car. At present, diesels are

heavier for a given horsepower and

more expensive than a spark-ignition

engine. Also, diesels may not meet

the 1981 Federal standards for NOX

emissions. A further disadvantage is

that diesel exhaust contains high concentrations of particulate matter that

is suspected to be carcinoqenic.

Emissions

The early approach to control of vehicle emissions involved “detuning” the engine and

resulted in penalties in fuel economy. This approach has been abandoned in favor of technol32
ogies, such as after-treatment and cleaner burning engines, that allow substantial reductions in

emissions and operation at near optimum fuel

economy.

Progress toward meeting regulatory emission

goals is being made along two lines. Improved

after-treatment systems, such as the three-way

catalytic converter, have been developed and

are now being placed in use. Advances are also

being made in reducing the pollutants created in

the combustion process through techniques such

as stratified-charge engines and electronic control of ignition timing and fuel-air mixture.

There is a high probability the industry will

meet the 1981 Federal emission standards of 3.4

grams per mile for CO, 0.41 gram per mile for

HC, and 1.0 gram per mile for NOX and still be

able to attain fuel-economy goals. Different

manufacturers will choose different combinations of emission-control techniques, but it is expected that electronic control of ignition and

fuel-air mixture will be virtually universal by

the earl y 1980’s.

The 1982 California NOx standard of

0.4 gram per mile introduces a more

difficult technical problem than the

1981 Federal standard of 1.0 gram per

mile. To date, no method has been

demonstrated to meet the California

standard with typical large U.S. sparkignition engines. Volvo, Saab, and GM

have shown, however, that they can

meet the 0.4 gram per mile requirement with a three-way catalyst system

on a four-cylinder engine.

Safety

Vehicle safety improvement falls into two

categories—accident avoidance and occupant

protection.

Accident avoidance includes features such as

better brakes, improved lighting and visibility,

and improved handling. Such features are marketable commodities, but some of them can be

costly. Evidence that they would contribute significantly to reductions in the number of traffic

crashes is not clear for all of these features.

Occupant protection, on the other hand, is effective and is reasonably amenable to evaluation. Because occupant protection is partly a

function of crush distance and relative vehicle

weights, the expected shift to small cars could

lead to increased occupant injury and fatality

rates. Improved vehicle crashworthiness would

be required to reduce the hazards of small cars.

Safety and fuel-economy goals are sometimes

in opposition (i. e., a higher margin of safety or

additional safety equipment may mean more

weight and, hence, lower fuel economy). Although an integrated approach to safety design

has not been thoroughly examined, the Department of Transportation’s (DOT) Research Safety Vehicle (RSV) program indicates that higher

levels of safety can be attained without

unreasonable penalties in weight or cost.

Passive restraint systems are currently mandated for automobiles in the 1982-84 model

years. This technology is reasonably well-developed, and no insurmountable

ties are foreseen.

Summary

Several major technological

technical difficuldevelopments are

expected by 1985:

Downsizing programs will reduce the average size and weight of the vehicle fleet.

Waste space from styling and image requirements will be greatly reduced.

Materials substitution—greater use of lightweight materials such as aluminum, plastics, and high-strength low-alloy steels—

will reduce vehicle weight further.

Changes in vehicle layout, such as frontwheel drive, will allow further size and

weight reduction.

Additional improvements in fuel economy

will be achieved by improvements in transmission and drive-train efficiency and by

reduced power requirements for accessories. The application of electronic controls for fuel metering and ignition will help

the engine maintain efficient performance

and reduce the need for tuneups.

Several new or refined engines may be

widely offered:

–diesels (several now offered),

—stratified charge (now offered by

Honda),

33
—single-chamber stratified charge (under

development by Ford, GM, and Texaco),

—valve selector (expected on the market by

1980), and

—turbocharging (now offered by GM and

Ford),

These engines will afford greater fuel economy and/or reduced emissions.

Vehicle safety will be improved by the addition of passive restraints. However, the

decrease in vehicle size may offset these

gains unless additional crashworthiness is

designed into small cars.

Advanced propulsion technologies (such as

Stirling and turbine engines) and electric

vehicles will not significantly penetrate the

market by 1985.

Technological Developments Beyond

1985

The principal factors influencing automotive

technology in the period after 1985 are expected

to be:

●

●

●

The need to develop and utilize energy

sources other than conventionally derived

petroleum,

The need for further fuel-economy i m -

provement–-up to 35 or 40 mpg by 2000,

and

The need to reduce hydrocarbon, carbon

monoxide, and nitrogen oxide emissions

and to control other pollutants—such as

sulfates, particulate, and nitrosamines —

present in automobile exhaust or associated

with the production of alternate fuels.

Substitute Fuels

The technology for producing, distributing,

and utilizing alternate energy sources, as a supplement or replacement for conventional petroleum, may be the most significant development

in the 1985-2000 period. These fuels could be:

● liquids from oil shale and tar sands,

• liquids from coal,

. alcohol, and

● hydrogen.

Oil Shale and Tar Sands.—Oil shale is a rock

containing a petroleum-like substance called

kerogen. The recovery process involves heating

the shale to evaporate the oil, which is then

drawn off and condensed. The resulting crude

shale oil can then be refined to produce a synthetic fuel with properties close to those of

gasoline or diesel fuel produced from petroleum. Tar sands are sand and clay saturated

with a heavy oil. The extraction and refining

processes are similar to those for oil shale. The

final product has properties similar to conventional motor fuel.

There are large reserves of oil shale in the

Western United States, and oil shale conversion

could reach the commercialization stage by

1990-2000. The technology to advance from

pilot plants to full-scale production has not yet

been fully tested. At present, the estimated cost

of fuel from oil shale is not competitive with

motor fuel refined from petroleum. The price

differential at present deters investment in commercial facilities—the cost of which is estimated

at $1 billion for a 50,000 barrel-per-da y plant.

Uncertainty about Federal Government policy

on petroleum and substitute fuels also contributes to industry’s reluctance to invest in fullscale commercialization of oil shale processing.

A major obstacle to large-scale exploitation of

oil shale is the environmental impacts of extraction and processing. These include land disturbance and subsidence, disposal of spent shale,

gaseous emissions from shale retorting, and

contamination of ground water. Also, processing requires large amounts of water—a scarce

commodity in the semiarid regions of the Western United States, where the shale deposits exist.

If these production problems can be resolved,

fuel from oil shale can be readily substituted for

petroleum products since it would not necessitate a different engine technology.

Commercial production of fuel from tar sands

presents many of the same technical, environmental, and economic problems as oil shale.

Compared to oil shale, the United States has

only very small deposits of tar sands—about 2

percent of the world supply. The bulk of tar

sand reserves are in Canada and South America. Consequently, tar sands are not considered

a major domestic energy resource.

34
. . . utilizing alternate energy sources . . .

35
Coal.—The basic process for producing liquid fuel from coal involves breaking down the

hydrocarbon molecules, removing contaminants such as ash and sulfur, and enriching the

hydrogen content. The resulting liquid can be

refined to a product suitable for use as a motor

fuel.

Coal liquefaction on a large scale was carried

out in Germany during World War II, and a

commerical facility is now in operation in South

Africa. There are several pilot plants in the

United States, but extensive commercialization

is not expected until the 1990’s at the earliest.

Coal liquids are attractive as an alternative

automobile fuel because the United States has

an abundent supply of coal. The major barriers

to large-scale production of coal liquids are

technical, economic, and environmental. Coal

liquefaction generally requires high pressures,

carefully controlled temperatures, and large

reactors for coal conversion. Research is continuing on the development of equipment and facilities for commercial application. Because of the

need for specialized equipment, coal liquefaction plants are highly capital-intensive, and the

cost of the resulting fuel exceeds the present

price of petroleum products. In addition to the

environmental problems associated with coal

mining, there are air- and water-pollution problems at refining facilities and the inherently

hazardous nature of some of the compounds

present in the resulting motor fuel. The effects

on air quality of extensive use of coal-derived

fuels in automobiles have not been fully explored. It is conjectured that automobile exhaust would be higher in NOX and various aromatic and benzene compounds if coal liquids

were used.

Alcohol.—Alcohols such as ethanol or methanol can be used in pure form or in a mixture

with gasoline (gasohol) to fuel automobiles.

Methanol can be produced from organic waste,

natural gas, heavy petroleum residues, or

naphtha. It can also be derived from coal. Ethanol can be produced from biomass, which includes municipal and agricultural waste, grain,

plants, and other biological matter. Alcohol

fuels offer the attractive possibility of a

renewable source of energy for the automobile.

With present production techniques and volumes, the price of pure alcohol as a motor fuel is

not competitive with gasoline. The price of gasohol in mixtures of 10 to 20 percent, if the alcohol is not subject to Federal fuel tax, is close to

the current price of gasoline.

Ethanol blends have been used as an automobile fuel in Brazil for several years. Gasohol is

now being sold in Illinois, Iowa, and Nebraska.

California has initiated a gasohol program, and

Colorado has approved one. It is estimated,

however, that it would take 10 to 15 years to

build the industrial capacity sufficient to meet

10 percent of our daily automotive fuel demand.

Alcohols have the inherent advantage of a

high octane rating, which permits more efficient

engine operation. The emissions from an engine

burning pure alcohol or gasohol are lower in

HC, CO, and NOX

. However, it is suspected

that there would be a higher proportion of unburned fuel in the exhaust and an increase in

aldehyde emissions. The significance of these

emissions in terms of reactivity and toxicity is

not fully understood at present.

Gasohol containing less than 20 percent alcohol can be burned in present-day automobile

engines with only slight carburetor adjustment.

The use of alcohol as a motor fuel, either in pure

form or in blends of more than 20 percent with

gasoline, requires some modification of the

engine and fuel system to maintain proper carburetion and to prevent corrosion and deterioration of parts in contact with the alcohol.

Transportation, storage, and distribution of alcohol requires special precautions to prevent

contamination by water.

Hydrogen.—Hydrogen is an ideal fuel for

heat engines because its energy content is very

high per pound and because it burns cleanly.

However, the use of hydrogen in automobiles

presents technical problems. As a gas, it is of

very low density and has to be stored and transported under high pressure. As a liquid, hydrogen must be kept at an extremely low temperature, which requires thermal insulation and

special handling. Hydrogen can be stored in

solid form as a metal hydride, but it is heavy

and bulky— making it impractical with present

technology to store in a passenger car.

Although hydrogen is the most plentiful element in the universe, processes to obtain hydrogen by breaking down natural compounds such

36
as water or coal are very costly under present

methods and consume more energy than they

deliver. Extensive use of hydrogen as a motor

fuel depends on development of a practical,

low-cost, energy-efficient process to extract

hydrogen, probably from water.

Advanced Propulsion Systems

The desire for cleaner and more efficient propulsion systems has stimulated a search for

alternatives to the conventional spark-ignition

engine. Among the candidates are:

● gas turbines,

● Stirling engines,

. compound engines, and

● electric and hybrid vehicles.

All are in various stages of development now,

but more work will be needed to determine their

potential. However, each can be considered a

contender to provide a partial or complete substitute for the conventional spark-ignition

engine of today. The advantages and disadvantages of each are discussed in chapter 10 of the

Technical Report and summarized briefly here.

Interest in the gas turbine (Bray ton cycle

engine) has been prompted by the need to develop an automobile engine with emission characteristics superior to those of the spark-ignition

engine. The turbine is also of interest because it

is theoretically a very efficient engine that can

use a wide variety of fuels. However, to achieve

high operating efficiency a turbine must run at a

very high temperature. This necessitates using

high-temperature metal alloys or ceramics for

engine components. High-temperature alIoys

are expensive and difficult to mass produce.

Ceramic technology has not yet been perfected.

If the problem of production of high-temperature materials can be solved, the gas turbine

promises to be a small, efficient, and durable

automobile engine with smooth operation, low

emissions, and ease of maintenance.

The Stirling engine is an external combustion

engine, The heat from burning fuel is used to expand a confined working fluid (usually helium

or hydrogen under high pressure) which drives a

piston to provide motive power. The expanded

working fluid is recompressed and reheated for

the next piston stroke.

The Stirling offers the potential of very high

fuel economy and can use nearly any liquid,

gaseous, or solid fuel. Since it is an external

combustion engine, it is theoretically cleaner

than an internal combustion engine burning

comparable fuel. The Stirling engine can also be

made quiet and smooth running.

There are many technical problems that will

have to be solved before the Stirling engine can

be put to use in passenger cars. The engine operates at very high temperature and pressure. Special high-temperature materials are required.

Maintaining tight seals is a problem. The Stirling is mechanically complex, which makes it

difficult to produce in quantity at a competitive

cost. For these reasons, the Stirling engine is not

expected to be on the market until 1990 or later.

Along with research on turbine and Stirling

engines, attention is also being given to other

advanced propulsion systems that augment one

type or another of heat engine with additional

power cycles such as turbocharging, regeneration, compounding, and other mechanical and

thermodynamic variations. One such engine is

the adiabatic turbocompound diesel that is currently being developed for trucks. The efficiency

of the diesel is improved by shielding the engine

to prevent radiant heat loss and then adding a

turbine driven by the exhaust gases, which

serves to capture some of the energy that would

otherwise be lost. As a further refinement, a

Rankine cycle power system (a steam engine)

can be added to utilize even more of the waste

heat in the exhaust stream. These features can

raise the thermal efficiency of the engine to

perhaps twice that of a conventional diesel or

spark-ignition engine but may result in a large

weight penalty. The adiabatic turbocompound

diesel, or some other form of compound-cycle

engine, could find its way into automobile use,

but probably not before the end of the century.

In the early days of the automobile, the

battery-powered electric motor was a strong

competitor with the gasoline-powered sparkignition engine, which eventually prevailed

because of its superior power, range, and convenience. Recently, interest in the electric vehicle has been revived because the EV can derive

energy from sources other than petroleum and

because the vehicle itself emits virtually no air

pollutants. The EV is also quiet in operation.

37
The electric vehicle has some major disadvantages, however, that deter its use as an all-purpose passenger car. The performance of the EV

does not compare favorably with that of the

conventional automobile in terms of speed, acceleration, range, and load-carrying capacity.

The solution to these problems lies in the development of a battery that will provide higher

energy and power density than the present leadacid battery at a moderate cost. One possible

alternative, the nickel-zinc battery, which offers

about twice the energy capacity of the lead-acid

battery, is nearly ready for production. Other

advanced high-temperature batteries such as the

lithium-sulfide battery, are in early stages of

development.

Electric automobiles have been given a boost

by the passage of the Electric and Hybrid Vehicle Development and Demonstration Act of

1976. This act emphasizes the near-term deployment and demonstration of vehicles using available technologies. This demonstration program

is helping to define the attributes, deficiencies,

and problems of electric vehicles. The marketing of a special-purpose, limited-range vehicle

may become a reality in the period 1985 to 2000.

Research is also being directed towar d

methods to supplement the performance of the

basic electric vehicle. One approach is to use

regenerative braking, which converts some of

the vehicle’s momentum back into electrical

energy. Another approach is to store energy

mechanically by means of a flywheel, which can

be used separately or in combination with a battery storage system. Further improvements in

EV performance can be obtained by combining

a combustion engine with the electrical energy

storage system. This combination, known as a

hybrid vehicle, provides greater range and performance than can be obtained with a vehicle

powered by electricity alone. Demonstration of

hybrids is also a part of the program being conducted by the Department of Energy (DOE), but

so far very few have been built and tested. It is

too early to predict the role that hybrid vehicles

might play as a future form of automobile transportation.

38
FINDINGS

Based on analysis of near-term and far-term prospects for development of

automobile technology, we find that:

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

The 1985 fuel-economy goal appears to be technologically achievable, but at the

expense of some large-car production.

It is possible to meet the currently mandated emission standards without

serious penalty in fuel economy.

Small cars can be designed to be more crashworthy at a nominal weight and cost

penalty.

Diesels presently offer a substantial advantage in fuel economy over spark-ignition engines, but the problem of particulate emissions must be solved before the

diesel can be suitable as a wide-scale substitute for the spark-ignition engine.

Liquid fuels from oil shale, coal, and tar sands can be used to power

automobiles, but deposits of only the first two are sufficient to be considered

significant domestic energy sources for automobiles. Production of liquid fuels

from either oil shale or coal is not expected to reach commercial scale until the

1990’s at the earliest, and even then only if large capital investments in extraction and processing facilities are made soon. The environmental and safety

hazards of producing and using these substitute fuels need further examination.

Alcohol is an attractive fuel that can be used as a blend with gasoline in present

engines at a cost slightly greater than gasoline. The use of pure alcohol as a

motor fuel requires some changes in the engine and may require modification of

the fuel transport, storage, and distribution system. Pure alcohol is not costcompetitive with gasoline at present. The environmental impacts of alcohol fuels

need further study.

The use of hydrogen as a motor fuel is not a practical alternative until sometime

after 2000. There are many problems of production, storage, and handling to be

overcome.

As long-term options, the gas turbine and Stirling engines are attractive in terms

of fuel economy, reduced emissions, and multifuel capability. Development is

under way, but they are not expected to reach the automobile market until 1990

at the earliest.

The benefits of electric vehicles are reduced petroleum consumption and the virtual elimination of air pollution from the vehicle itself. The development of improved batteries is the critical technological problem. Electric vehicles, designed for special purposes and limited use, may be on the road in significant

quantities by the mid-1980’s.