An Aging World: 2001

International Population Reports

U.S. Department of Health and Human Services

National Institutes of Health

NATIONAL INSTITUTE ON AGING
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS This report was prepared by and activities of the Census Bureau (as

Kevin Kinsella and Victoria A. well as to many other agencies in the

Velkoff under the general direction of United States and worldwide) for the betPeter O. Way, Chief, International ter part of two decades.

Programs Center (IPC), Population Within the IPC Aging Studies Branch, Division, Census Bureau. Research for Valerie Lawson was instrumental to and production of this report were sup- the completion of myriad tasks involving ported under an interagency agreement data compilation, verification, table and with the Behavioral and Social Research graph production, and general report Program, National Institute on Aging, preparation. Branch members Wan He Agreement No. Y1-AG-9414-01. and Jennifer Zanini also contributed to

For their review of and/or suggestions this report. 

regarding this report, the authors are Frances Scott, Janet Sweeney, grateful to Emily M. Agree, Department Barbara Adams, and Arlene C. Butler of Population Dynamics, Johns Hopkins of the Administrative and Customer University; Nikolai Botev, Population Services Division, Walter C. Odom, Activities Unit, Economic Commission for Chief, provided publication and printing Europe; Richard V. Burkhauser, management, graphics design, and com- Department of Policy Analysis and position and editorial review for print Management, Cornell University; and electronic media. General direction James C. Gibbs, Assistant Center Chief, and production management were pro- IPC; Albert I. Hermalin, Institute for vided by Michael G. Garland, Assistant Social Research, University of Michigan; Chief, and Gary J. Lauffer, Chief, Linda Hooper, Aging Studies Branch, Publications Services Branch. IPC; Rose Maria Li, Behavioral and

Social Research Program, National Thanks also are due to Lorraine Wright

Institute on Aging; Jean-Marie Robine, of the Bureau’s Information and

Equipe INSERM Demographie et Sante, Resources Services Branch, who cheerMontpellier; Beth J. Soldo, Population fully and efficiently handled the acquisiStudies Center, University of tion of a multitude of necessary sources

Pennsylvania; Richard M. Suzman, and references.

Behavioral and Social Research Program, Finally, we would like to thank those National Institute on Aging; Peter O.

international organizations and associa- Way, Chief, IPC, Loraine A. West, tions engaged in the collection, tabula- Eurasia Branch, IPC; and tion, analysis and dissemination of data Richard Woodbury, National Bureau relevant to the aging of the world’s pop- of Economic Research. We also thank

ulation. In particular, we would like to David Rajnes, Housing and Household acknowledge the efforts of the Economic Economic Statistics Division, U.S. Census Commission for Europe, the International Bureau, who provided useful data and Labour Office, the International Network other information regarding retirement on Healthy Life Expectancy, the and pensions. International Social Security

A very special debt of gratitude is owed Administration, the Organization for

to George C. Myers, former director of Economic Co-Operation and

the Center for Demographic Studies at Development, the Statistical Office of the

Duke University, who passed away in European Union, the United Nations

2000. Not only did Dr. Myers offer Population Division, the United Nations

instructive comments on this report, but Statistical Office, and the World Health

he also provided invaluable advice and Organization.

guidance to the aging-related products
An Aging World: 2001

P95/01-1

Issued November 2001

U.S. Department of Commerce

Donald L. Evans,

Secretary

Economics and Statistics Administration

Kathleen B. Cooper, 

Under Secretary for Economic Affairs

U.S. CENSUS BUREAU

William G. Barron, Jr.,

Acting Director
Suggested Citation

Kinsella, Kevin and Victoria A. Velkoff,

U.S. Census Bureau, Series P95/01-1, 

An Aging World: 2001, 

U.S. Government Printing Office, 

Washington, DC, 2001.

ECONOMICS

AND STATISTICS

ADMINISTRATION

Economics and Statistics

Administration

Kathleen B. Cooper,

Under Secretary for Economic Affairs

U.S. CENSUS BUREAU

William G. Barron, Jr.,

Acting Director

William G. Barron, Jr.,

Deputy Director

John H. Thompson,

Principal Associate Director for Programs

Nancy M. Gordon,

Associate Director for Demographic Programs

John F. Long,

Chief, Population Division

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Internet: bookstore.gpo.gov Phone: toll free 866-512-1800; DC area 202-512-1800

Fax: 202-512-2250 Mail: Stop SSOP, Washington, DC 20402-0001
U.S. Census Bureau An Aging World: 2001 iii

20 Questions About Global Aging 

(to test your knowledge of global population aging at the turn of the century)

Answers appear on next page.

1. True or false? In the year 2000, children under the 11. True or false? Today in some countries life expectancy

age of 15 still outnumbered elderly people (aged 65 at birth is less than 40 years.

and over) in almost all nations of the world.

12. What are the leading killers of elderly women in

Europe and North America? 2. The world’s elderly population is increasing by approximately how many people each month? a. Cancers b. Circulatory diseases

c. Respiratory diseases d. Accidents a. 50,000 b. 300,000 c. 500,000 d. 800,000

13. True or false? Elderly women outnumber elderly men 3. Which of the world’s developing regions has the in all developing countries. highest aggregate percent elderly?

a. Africa b. Latin America 14. There are more older widows than widowers in virtuc. The Caribbean d. Asia (excluding Japan) ally all countries because:

a. Women live longer than men 4. China has the world’s largest total population (more b. Women typically marry men older than themselves than 1.2 billion people). Which country has the

world’s largest elderly (65+) population? c. Men are more likely than women to remarry after

divorce or the death of a spouse

a. Japan b. Germany c. China d. Nigeria d. All of the above

5. True or false? More than half of the world’s elderly 15. In developed countries, recent declines in labor force

today live in the industrialized nations of participation rates of older (55 and over) workers are

Europe, North America, and Japan. due almost entirely to changing work patterns of

a. Men b. Women c. Men and women 6. Of the world’s major countries, which had the highest

percentage of elderly people in the year 2000? 16. What proportion of the world’s countries have a public

a. Sweden b. Turkey c. Italy d. France old-age security program?

a. All b. Three-fourths c. One-half d. One-fourth

7. True or false? Current demographic projections suggest that 35 percent of all people in the United States 17. Approximately what percent of the private sector will be at least 65 years of age by the year 2050. labor force in the United States is covered by a private

pension plan (as opposed to, or in addition to, public

8. True or false? The number of the world’s “oldest old” Social Security)?

(people aged 80 and over) is growing more rapidly a. 10 percent b. 25 percent than that of the elderly as a whole. c. 33 percent d. 60 percent

9. More than one-third of the world’s oldest old live in 18. In which country are elderly people least likely to live which three countries? alone?

a. Germany, the United States, and the a. The Philippines b. Hungary c. Canada d. Denmark United Kingdom

b. India, China, and the United States 19. True or false? In developing countries, older men are c. Japan, China, and Brazil more likely than older women to be illiterate. d. Russia, India, and Indonesia

20. True or false? In most nations, large cities have 10. Japan has the highest life expectancy at birth among younger populations (i.e., a lower percent elderly) than the major countries of the world. How many years the country as a whole. can the average Japanese baby born in 2000 expect

to live?

a. 70 years b. 75 years c. 81 years d. 85 years
iv An Aging World: 2001 U.S. Census Bureau

Answers

1. True. Although the world’s world’s growth rate for the 80+ But because older men work in

population is aging, children still population from 1999 to 2000 much greater numbers than do

outnumber the elderly in all was 3.5 percent, while that of older women, increases in

major nations except six: the world’s elderly (65+) popula- female participation were more

Bulgaria, Germany, Greece, Italy, tion as a whole was 2.3 percent than offset by falling male particJapan, and Spain. (compared with 1.3 percent for ipation.

the total (all ages) population). 2. d. The estimated change in the 16. b. Of the 227 countries/areas 

total size of the world’s elderly 9. b. India has roughly 6.2 million of the world with populations of

population between July 1999 people aged 80 and over, China at least 5,000, 167 (74 percent)

and July 2000 was more than has 11.5 million, and the United reported having some form of 

9.5 million people, an average of States 9.2 million. Taken togeth- an old age/disability/survivors

795,000 each month. er, these people constitute nearly program circa 1999.

38 percent of the world’s oldest 3. c. The Caribbean, with 7.2 per- 17. d. The share of the private sec- old. cent of all people aged 65 or tor U.S. labor force covered by

older. Corresponding figures for 10. c. 81 years, up from about 52 private pension plans was about

other regions are: Asia (exclud- in 1947. 60 percent in the mid-1990s.

ing Japan), 5.5 percent; Latin However, not all employees who 11. True. In some African countries America, 5.3 percent; and Africa, are covered by such plans actu- (e.g., Malawi, Swaziland, Zambia, 3.1 percent. ally participate in them. and Zimbabwe) where the

4. c. China also has the largest HIV/AIDS epidemic is particularly 18. a. The Philippines. The percent

elderly population, numbering devastating, average life of elderly people living alone in

nearly 88 million in 2000. expectancy at birth may be as developing countries is usually

much as 25 years lower than it much lower than that in devel- 5. False. Although industrialized otherwise would be in the oped countries; levels in the lat- nations have higher percentages absence of HIV/AIDS. ter may exceed 40 percent. of elderly people than do most

developing countries, 59 percent 12. b. Circulatory diseases (especial- 19. False. Older women are less

of the world’s elderly now live in ly heart disease and stroke) typi- likely to be literate. In China in

the developing countries of cally are the leading cause of 1990, for example, only 11 perAfrica, Asia, Latin America, the death as reported by the World cent of women aged 60 and

Caribbean, and Oceania. Health Organization. In Canada over could read and write, comin 1995, for example, 44 percent pared with half of men aged 60 6. c. Italy, with 18.1 percent of all of all deaths occurring to women and over. people aged 65 or over. Monaco, at age 65 or above were attrib- a small principality of about 20. We do not know. Data for uted to circulatory disease. The 32,000 people located on the selected cities/countries are pre- percentage was virtually the Mediterranean, has more than sented in Chapter 5. Some liter- same for elderly men. 22 percent of its residents aged ature from developed countries

65 and over. 13. False. Although there are more suggests that the statement is

elderly women than elderly men false; evidence from certain 7. False. Although the United in the vast majority of the developing countries suggests States will age rapidly when the world’s countries, there are that it is true. Both the Census Baby Boomers (people born exceptions such as India, Iran, Bureau’s International Programs between 1946 and 1964) begin and Bangladesh. Center and the National Institute to reach age 65 after the year on Aging’s Behavioral and Social 2010, the percent of population 14. d. All of the above. Research Program would be aged 65 and over in the year 15. a. From the late 1960s until most interested in empirical 2050 is projected to be slightly very recently, labor force partici- input from interested parties. above 20 percent (compared pation rates of older men in Understanding global aging is a with about 13 percent today). developed countries were declin- dialectical process.

8. True. The oldest old are the ing virtually everywhere, wherefastest-growing component of as those for women were often

many national populations. The holding steady or increasing.
U.S. Census Bureau An Aging World: 2001 v

Contents

20 Questions About Global Aging . . . . . . . . . . . . . .iii 3. Average Annual Growth Rate and Percent 

Change Over Time for Older Age Groups: 

Chapter 2000 to 2015 and 2015 to 2030 . . . . . . . . . .130

1. Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1 4. Median Population Age: 

2. The Demographics of Aging . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .7 2000, 2015, and 2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .132

3. Life Expectancy and Changing Mortality . . . . . .23 5. Total and Elderly Urban Population by Sex: 

Available Data From 1970 to the Present . . . .133

4. Health and Disability . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .37

6. Sex Ratio for Population 25 Years and 

5. Urban and Rural Dimensions . . . . . . . . . . . . . .49 Over by Age: 2000 and 2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . .136

6. Sex Ratios and Marital Status . . . . . . . . . . . . . .57 7. Marital Status of Older Persons by Sex: 

Selected Years 1970 to 1995 . . . . . . . . . . . . .137 7. Living Arrangements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65

8. Support Ratios: 2000, 2015, and 2030 . . . . . .154 8. Family and Social Support of Older People . . . .73

9. Parent Support Ratios: 1950, 9. Educational Attainment and Literacy . . . . . . . . .85

2000, and 2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .155

10. Labor Force Participation and Retirement . . . . .93

10. Labor Force Participation Rates by Age and 

11. Pensions and Income Security . . . . . . . . . . . .115 Sex: Selected Years, 1970 to 1999 . . . . . . . . .156

Appendix A. Appendix B.

Detailed Tables . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .125 Sources and Limitations of the Data . . . . . .163

Table Appendix C.

International Comparison of 

1. Total Population, Percent Elderly, and Percent Urban and Rural Definitions . . . . . . . . . . . . .167

Oldest Old: 1975, 2000, 2015, and 2030 . . . .126

Appendix D.

2. Population by Age: 2000 and 2030 . . . . . . . . .128 References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .169
U.S. Census Bureau An Aging World: 2001 1

CHAPTER 1.

Introduction

The United Nations designated 1999

as "The Year of the Older Person,”

thereby recognizing and reaffirming

what demographers and many others

have known for decades: our global

population is aging, and aging at an

unprecedented rate. Fertility decline

and urbanization arguably have been

the dominant global demographic

trends during the second half of the

twentieth century, much as rapid

improvements in life expectancy

characterized the early 1900s. As we

begin the twenty-first century, population aging is poised to emerge as a

preeminent worldwide phenomenon.

The confluence of lowered fertility

and improved health and longevity

has generated growing numbers and

proportions of older population

throughout most of the world. As

education and income levels rise,

increasing numbers of individuals

reach "old age” with markedly different life expectancies and personal

expectations than their forebears.

Population aging represents, in one

sense, a human success story; societies now have the luxury of aging.

However, the steady, sustained

growth of elderly1 populations also

1 There is a growing awareness that the

term “elderly” is an inadequate generalization

that conceals the diversity of a broad age

group, spanning more than 40 years of life. For

cross-national comparative purposes, however,

some chronological demarcation of age categories is required. This report uses the following terms for component age groups: the elderly (65 and over); the young old (65 to 74

years); and the oldest old (80 years and over).

In some contexts (e.g., older people in the labor

force), it may be most useful or necessary (due

to data restrictions) to refer to the “older population,” those 55 years and older. The term

“frail elderly” refers to people 65 years or older

with significant physical and cognitive health

problems. This term is used to emphasize the

fact that a majority of the elderly, especially the

young old, do not have serious health problems. 

poses myriad challenges to policymakers in many societies. After the

year 2010, the numbers and proportions of elderly, especially the oldest

old, will rise rapidly in most developed and many developing countries.2 The projected increase is primarily the result of high fertility after

World War II. It is secondarily, but

increasingly, the result of reduced

death rates at all ages; in most

nations of the world, there have been

major reductions in the prevalence of

infectious and parasitic diseases,

declines in infant and maternal mortality, and improved nutrition during

the 1900s. One focus of this report

is a look at the numbers, proportions, and growth rates (past, current, and projected) of the elderly

population.

Most people, for good reason, associate the growth of elderly populations with the developed, industrialized countries of Europe and North

America. Most developed nations

are in fact the demographically oldest in the world today, and some

may have more grandparents than

children before the middle of the

twenty-first century. In the early

1990s, developed nations as a whole

had about as many children under

15 years of age as people aged 55

and over (approximately 22 percent

2 The “developed” and “developing” country

categories used in this report correspond directly to the “more developed” and “less developed”

classification employed by the United Nations.

Developed countries comprise all nations in

Europe (including some nations that formerly

were part of the Soviet Union) and North

America, plus Japan, Australia, and New

Zealand. The remaining nations of the world

are classified as developing countries. While

these categories commonly are used for comparative purposes, it is increasingly evident that

they no longer accurately reflect developmental

differences between nations.

of the total population in each category). The developing world, by

contrast, still had a high proportion

of children (35 percent of all people

under age 15) and a relatively low

proportion of older people (10 percent aged 55 and over). 

What is less widely appreciated is

that absolute numbers of elderly in

developing nations often are large

and everywhere are increasing.

Well over half of the world’s elderly

(people aged 65 and over) now live

in developing nations (59 percent,

or 249 million people, in 2000). By

2030, this proportion is projected

to increase to 71 percent (686 million).3 Many developing countries

have had or are now experiencing a

significant downturn in their rate of

natural population increase (births

minus deaths) similar to what previously occurred in most industrialized nations. As this process accelerates, age structures will change.

The elderly will be an ever-larger

proportion of each nation’s total

3 Throughout this report, projections of population size and composition come from the

International Programs Center, Population

Division, U.S. Census Bureau, unless otherwise

indicated. As discussed further in Appendix B,

these projections are based on empirical analyses of individual national population age and

sex structures, components of population

change (rates of fertility, mortality, and net

migration), and assumptions about the future

trajectories of fertility, mortality, and migration

for each country.

Projections, strictly speaking, are neither

forecasts nor predictions. Projections are “correct” in the sense that they are actual results of

mathematical calculations based on specified

assumptions. Forecasts are projections that

analysts judge to be the most probable end

results. There can be alternative projections,

but it would be contradictory to make alternative forecasts. It may, however, be appropriate

to develop numerical ranges for forecast values.

Predictions have no formal statistical meaning;

they are related more to forecasts than to projections.
population. Elderly populations

also have grown because of worldwide improvements in health services, educational status, and economic development. The characteristics

of the elderly are likely to be

increasingly heterogeneous within

nations. Thus, a second focus of

An Aging World: 2001 is to summarize socioeconomic statistics for

both developed and developing

nations. This report shows such

data for 52 nations when available

and reasonably comparable. In

2000, these 52 nations (listed in

Appendix A, Table 1) contained 

77 percent of the world’s total population, and are referred to as

“study countries” at various points

in the text.4

This report focuses primarily on

people aged 65 years old and over.

As is true of younger age groups,

people aged 65 and over have very

different economic resources, health

statuses, living arrangements, and

levels of integration into social life.

An Aging World: 2001 acknowledges this diversity by disaggregating statistics into narrower age

groups where possible. Such examination may reveal important demographic, social, and economic differences that have direct bearing on

social policy now and in the future.

For example, the fastest growing

portion of the elderly population in

many nations are those aged 80

and over, referred to as the oldest

old. Rapidly expanding numbers of

very old people represent a social

phenomenon without historical

precedent, and one that is bound to

alter previously held stereotypes of

older people. The growth of the

oldest old is salient to public policy

because individual needs and social

2 An Aging World: 2001 U.S. Census Bureau

4 In some parts of the text, data from additional countries have been included.

responsibilities change considerably the IPC and is funded in part by the

with increased age. Behavioral and Social Research

Program of the U.S. National An Aging World: 2001 is the sev- Institute on Aging. IDB contents are enth major cross-national report in readily available from the Census a Census Bureau series on the Bureau’s Web site; the direct access world’s elderly/older populations. address is www.census.gov/ipc/ The first two reports, An Aging www/idbnew.html World (1987) and Aging in the

Third World (1988), used data pri- Appendix B provides more informamarily from the 1970 and 1980 tion about the sources, limitations,

rounds of worldwide censuses and availability of IDB files and

(those taken from 1965 to 1974 report data in general. There are

and 1975 to 1984, respectively), vast differences in both the quantity

as well as demographic projections and quality of statistics reported by

produced by the United Nations various countries. The United

Population Division from its 1984 Nations has provided international

assessment of global population. recommendations for the standardiSubsequent reports — Population zation of concepts and definitions

and Health Transitions (1992); of data collected in censuses and

Aging in Eastern Europe and the surveys. Nevertheless, there are

Former Soviet Union (1993); An still wide discrepancies in data colAging World II (1993); Older lection and tabulation practices

Workers, Retirement and Pensions because of legitimate differences in

(1995); and the current report — the resources and information

include historical data from the needs among countries. As a

earlier reports, available data from result, any attempt to compile stanthe 1990 and 2000 rounds of cen- dard data across countries requires

suses, information from national consideration of whether and how

sample surveys and administrative the reported data should be anarecords, historical and projected lyzed to achieve comparability.

data from the United Nations, and The demographic data in this report data from component population have been judged by Census Bureau projections prepared by the analysts to be as representative as International Programs Center possible of the situation in a given (IPC), Population Division, U.S. country. The data are internally con- Census Bureau. Differences among sistent and congruent with other reports in projected data may facts known about the nations. reflect either a change in the These demographic data also have source of the projections or, more been checked for external consisten- importantly, revised demographic cy, that is, compared with informa- insights based on the most recent tion on other countries in the same information. region or subregion and with those

Many of the data included in this elsewhere at approximately the

report are from the Census Bureau’s same level of socioeconomic develInternational Data Base (IDB). The opment. The socioeconomic data,

tabular statistics provided in by contrast, typically are as reported

Appendix A represent only a small by the countries themselves.

portion of the total IDB files. The Although Census Bureau analysts

IDB is maintained and updated by have not directly evaluated these
data, analysts have attempted to proportion of the world’s population increasingly, biologic and genetic.

resolve discrepancies in reported fig- that is elderly (Figure 1-2). The The IDB and this report are an effort

ures and to eliminate international coming growth, especially of the to contribute to a consistent, sysinconsistencies; data with obvious oldest old, will be stunning. As tematic, quantitative comparison of

incongruities are not included. their numbers grow, there is a older populations in various counheightened need to understand the tries. Information is the first step We are all part of an increasingly characteristics of older populations, toward a better understanding of interdependent and aging world their strengths, and their require- the effects of population aging with- (Figure 1-1). Current growth of eld- ments. The effects will be felt not in and across national boundaries. erly populations is steady in some just within individual nations but As individuals, as nations, and as an countries and explosive in others. throughout the global economy. international community, we face As the World War II baby-boom Understanding the dynamics of the challenge of anticipating the cohorts, common to many coun- aging requires accurate descriptions changing needs and desires of an tries, begin to reach their elder of the elderly from interrelated per- aging world in a new millennium. years after 2010, there will be a spectives including demographic, significant jump by 2030 in the social, economic, medical, and

U.S. Census Bureau An Aging World: 2001 3
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000a.

Figure 1-1.Percent Aged 65 and Over: 2000

4 An Aging World: 2001 U.S. Census Bureau
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000a.

Figure 1-2.Percent Aged 65 and Over: 2030

U.S. Census Bureau An Aging World: 20015
U.S. Census Bureau An Aging World: 2001 7

CHAPTER 2.

The Demographics of Aging

The current level and pace of popula- Projections of older populations developed countries during and

tion aging vary widely by geographic may be more accurate than projec- after World War I. A second, less

region, and usually within regions as tions of total population, which severe, decline in the rate of

well. But virtually all nations are now must incorporate assumptions growth began in the mid-1990s

experiencing growth in their num- about the future course of human and will be most noticeable in the

bers of elderly residents. Developed fertility. Short-term and early 2000s. This decline correnations have relatively high propor- medium-term projections of tomor- sponds to lowered fertility during

tions of people aged 65 and over, but row’s elderly are not contingent the Great Depression and World

the most rapid increases in elderly upon fertility, because anyone who War II. These drops in growth rate

population are in the developing will be aged 65 or over in 2030 has highlight the important influence

world. Even in nations where the already been born. When projecting that past fertility trends have on

elderly percentage of total population the size and composition of the current and projected changes in

remains small, absolute numbers world’s future elderly population, the size of elderly populations.

may be rising steeply. Everywhere, human mortality is the key demo- The current aggregate growth rate the growth of elderly populations graphic component. As discussed of the elderly population in devel- poses challenges to social institutions in the next chapter, current and oping countries is more than double that must adapt to changing age future uncertainties about changing that in developed countries, and structures. mortality may produce widely diver- also double that of the total world gent projections of the size of

WORLD’S ELDERLY population. The rate in developing tomorrow’s elderly population. POPULATION INCREASING countries began to rise in the early

795,000 EACH MONTH ELDERLY POPULATION 1960s, and has generally continued

GROWING FASTEST IN to increase until recent years. After The world’s elderly population has DEVELOPING COUNTRIES a brief downturn — again related to been growing for centuries. What is

lower wartime fertility — the elderly new is the rapid pace of aging. The Population aging has become a

growth rate in developing countries global population aged 65 and over well-publicized phenomenon in the

is expected to rise beyond and was estimated to be 420 million industrialized nations of Europe

remain above 3.5 percent annually people as of midyear 2000, an and North America. What is not

from 2015 through 2030 before increase of 9.5 million since widely appreciated is the fact that

midyear 1999. The net balance of declining in subsequent decades. developing countries are aging as

the world’s elderly population grew well, often at a much faster rate EUROPE STILL THE “OLDEST” by more than 795,000 people each than in the developed world. WORLD REGION, AFRICA THE

month during the year. Projections Seventy-seven percent of the “YOUNGEST”

to the year 2010 suggest that the world’s net gain of elderly individu- Europe has had the highest propor- net monthly gain will then be on als from July 1999 to July 2000 — tion of population aged 65 and over the order of 847,000 people. In 615,000 people monthly — among major world regions for 1990, 26 nations had elderly popu- occurred in developing countries. many decades and should remain lations of at least 2 million, and by Figure 2-2 shows the different pat- the global leader well into the 2000, 31 countries had reached the terns of growth in developed ver- twenty-first century (Table 2-1). 2-million mark. Projections to the sus developing countries. Most Until recently, this region also had year 2030 indicate that more than notable in developed countries is the highest proportions of popula- 60 countries will have 2 million or the steep plunge in growth in the tion in the most advanced age cate- more people aged 65 and over early 1980s. The slowing of the gories. But in 2000, the percentage (Figure 2-1). growth rate was the result of low of population aged 80 and over in birth rates that prevailed in many
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000a.

Figure 2-1.Countries With 2 Million or More Elderly People: 2000 and 2030

8 An Aging World: 2001 U.S. Census Bureau
U.S. Census Bureau An Aging World: 2001 9

North America was equal to that of

Europe as a whole, probably as a

result of small European birth

cohorts around the time of World

War I. By 2015, however, these percentages are again expected to be

highest in Europe; in 2030, nearly

12 percent of all Europeans are projected to be over the age of 74 and

7 percent are projected to be over

the age of 79.

North America and Oceania also

have relatively high aggregate percentages of elderly, and these are

projected to increase substantially

between 2000 and 2030. Levels for

2000 in Asia and Latin

America/Caribbean are expected to

more than double by 2030, while

aggregate proportions of elderly

population in Sub-Saharan Africa

will grow rather modestly as a

result of continued high fertility in

many nations.

Two important factors bear mention

when considering aggregate elderly

proportions of regional populations.

The first is that regional averages

often hide great diversity.

Bangladesh and Thailand may be

close geographically, but these

countries have divergent paths of

expected population aging.

Likewise, many Caribbean nations

have high proportions of elderly

population (the Caribbean is the

“oldest” of all developing world

regions) in relation to their Central

American neighbors. Secondly and

more importantly, percentages by

themselves may not give a sense of

population momentum. Although

the change in percent elderly in

Sub-Saharan Africa from 2000 to

2015 is barely perceptible, the size

of the elderly population is expected to jump by 50 percent, from

19.3 million to 28.9 million people. 

Figure 2-2.

Average Annual Percent Growth of Elderly 

Population in Developed and Developing Countries

Source: United Nations, 1999.

0

1

2

3

4

5

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Total world, all ages

Percent growth

Developed countries, 65 years and over

Developing countries, 65 years and over

Table 2-1.

Percent Elderly by Age: 2000 to 2030

Region Year

65 years

and over

75 years

and over

80 years

and over

Europe.............................

North America ......................

Oceania............................

Asia . . . ............................

Latin America/Caribbean . . . ..........

Near East/North Africa . . . ............

Sub-Saharan Africa..................

2000

2015

2030

2000

2015

2030

2000

2015

2030

2000

2015

2030

2000

2015

2030

2000

2015

2030

2000

2015

2030

15.5

18.7

24.3

12.6

14.9

20.3

10.2

12.4

16.3

6.0

7.8

12.0

5.5

7.5

11.6

4.3

5.3

8.1

2.9

3.2

3.7

6.6

8.8

11.8

6.0

6.4

9.4

4.4

5.2

7.5

1.9

2.8

4.6

1.9

2.8

4.6

1.4

1.9

2.8

0.8

1.0

1.3

3.3

5.2

7.1

3.3

3.9

5.4

2.3

3.1

4.4

0.8

1.4

2.2

0.9

1.5

2.4

0.6

0.9

1.3

0.3

0.4

0.6

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000a.
10 An Aging World: 2001 U.S. Census Bureau

ITALY NOW THE WORLD’S

“OLDEST” MAJOR COUNTRY

The percent of population aged 65

and over ranged from 12 to 16 percent in 2000 in most developed

countries. For many years Sweden

had the highest such proportion,

but recently Italy became the demographically oldest of the world’s

major1 nations. Over 18 percent of

all Italians are aged 65 or over, with

levels approaching or exceeding 

17 percent in Greece, Sweden,

Japan, Spain, and Belgium. With

the exception of Japan, the world’s

25 oldest countries are all in Europe

(Figure 2-3). The United States,

with an elderly proportion of less

than 13 percent in 2000, is rather

young by developed-country standards, and its proportion elderly

will increase only slightly during the

next decade. However, as the large

birth cohorts of the baby boom

(people born from 1946 through

1964) begin to reach age 65 after

2010, the percent elderly in the

United States will rise markedly,

likely reaching 20 percent by the

year 2030. Still, this figure will be

lower than in most countries of

Western Europe.

1 Some small areas/jurisdictions have very

high proportions of elderly population. In

2000, three of the world’s seven highest estimated percentages of elders were in the

European principality of Monaco (more than 22

percent), Guernsey (17 percent) and the Isle of

Man (more than 17 percent).

Figure 2-3.

The World's 25 Oldest Countries: 2000

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000a. 

(Percent of population 65 years and over)

Czech Republic

Ukraine

Luxembourg

Slovenia

Estonia

Hungary

Serbia

Denmark

Finland

Latvia

Croatia

Switzerland

Norway

Austria

Portugal

United Kingdom

France

Germany

Bulgaria

Belgium

Spain

Japan

Sweden

Greece

Italy

13.9

18.1

17.3

17.3

17.0

16.9

16.8

16.5

16.2

16.0

15.7

15.4

15.4

15.2

15.1

15.0

15.0

14.9

14.9

14.8

14.6

14.1

14.0

13.9

14.5
U.S. Census Bureau An Aging World: 2001 11

SOME ELDERLY POPULATIONS

TO MORE THAN TRIPLE BY 2030

During the period 2000-2030, the

projected increase in elderly population in the 52 study countries

ranges from 14 percent in Bulgaria

to 372 percent in Singapore (Figure

2-4). Today’s “older” nations will

experience relatively little change

compared with many developing

nations; in countries as diverse as

Malaysia and Colombia, elderly

populations are expected to

expand to more than three times

their size in 2000.

Figure 2-4.

Percent Increase in Elderly Population: 2000 to 2030

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000a. 

Bulgaria

Ukraine

Hungary

Malawi

Greece

Italy

Zimbabwe

Sweden

Uruguay

Russia

Belgium

Japan

United Kingdom

France

Norway

Germany

Czech Republic

Denmark

Austria

Poland

Argentina

Luxembourg

New Zealand

United States

Israel

Australia

Kenya

Canada

Jamaica

Pakistan

Liberia

China

Tunisia

India

Turkey

Sri Lanka

Chile

Brazil

Morocco

Guatemala

Thailand

Peru

Bangladesh

Egypt

South Korea

Mexico

Indonesia

Philippines

Costa Rica

Colombia

Malaysia

Singapore

Developed countries

Developing countries

372

277

258

250

240

240

227

216

210

207

206

197

196

193

192

183

178

177

174

171

170

160

153

134

126

117

108

102

102

92

87

81

75

67

64

63

63

62

56

55

54

50

48

48

45

45

43

43

41

37

21

14
12 An Aging World: 2001 U.S. Census Bureau

THE LEGACY OF 

FERTILITY DECLINE

The most prominent historical factor in population aging has been

fertility decline. The generally sustained decrease in total fertility

rates (TFRs) in industrialized nations

since at least 1900 has resulted in

current levels below the population

replacement rate of 2.1 live births

per woman in most such nations

(Figure 2-5). Persistent low fertility

since the late 1970s has led to a

decline in the size of successive

birth cohorts and a corresponding

increase in the proportion of older

relative to younger population.

Fertility change in the developing

world has been more recent and

more rapid, with most regions having achieved major reductions in

fertility rates over the last 30 years.

Although the aggregate TFR

remains in excess of 4.5 children

per woman in Africa and many

countries of the Near East, overall

levels in Asia and Latin America

decreased by about 50 percent

(from 6 to 3 children per woman)

during the period 1965 to 1995.

Total fertility in many developing

countries — notably China, South

Korea, Thailand, and at least a

dozen Caribbean nations — is now

at or below replacement level.

Figure 2-5.

Total Fertility Rate: 2000

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000a. 

Zimbabwe

Tunisia

Morocco

Malawi

Liberia

Kenya

Egypt

Uruguay

Peru

Mexico

Jamaica

Guatemala

Costa Rica

Colombia

Chile

Brazil

Argentina

Turkey

Thailand

Sri Lanka

South Korea

Singapore

Philippines

Pakistan

Malaysia

Israel

Indonesia

India

China

Bangladesh

United States

New Zealand

Japan

Canada

Australia

Ukraine

Russia

Poland

Hungary

Czech Republic

Bulgaria

United Kingdom

Sweden

Norway

Luxembourg

Italy

Greece

Germany

France

Denmark

Belgium

Austria

(Births per woman)

Western Europe

3.3

1.4

1.6

1.7

1.8

1.4

1.3

1.2

1.7

1.8

1.5

1.7

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.3

1.3

1.8

1.6

1.4

1.8

2.1

2.9

1.8

3.1

2.6

2.6

3.3

4.6

3.5

1.2

1.7

2.0

1.9

2.2

2.5

2.1

2.2

2.7

2.5

4.7

2.1

2.7

3.0

2.4

3.2

3.7

6.4

5.3

3.1

2.0

Eastern Europe

Other Developed

Asia

Latin America/Caribbean

Africa
U.S. Census Bureau An Aging World: 2001 13

EAST AND SOUTHEAST ASIA Southeast Asia (South Korea,

AGING THE FASTEST Taiwan, and Thailand), fueled by

dramatic drops in fertility levels. In only one-quarter of a century —

The rapidity of change in this from 1970 to 1996 — the percent

region stands in stark contrast to of population aged 65 and over in

some European countries, where Japan increased from 7 to 14 perthe comparable change occurred cent (Figure 2-6). Similarly swift

over a period of up to 115 years. increases are expected in China,

Such rapidly aging societies are beginning around the turn of the

soon likely to face the often- century, and elsewhere in East and

fractious debates over health care

costs, social security, and intergenerational equity that have emerged

in Europe and North America.

AN AGING INDEX

An easily understood indicator of

age structure is the aging index,

defined here as the number of people aged 65 and over per 100

youths under age 15. Among the

52 study countries in 2000, 5 countries (Germany, Greece, Italy,

Bulgaria, and Japan) had more elderly than youth aged 0 to 14. By

2030, however, all developed countries in Figure 2-7 have a projected

aging index of at least 100, and

several European countries and

Japan are in excess of 200. Today’s

aging index typically is much lower

in developing countries than in the

developed world, and the pattern of

future change is likely to be more

varied. If future fertility rates

remain relatively high, the absolute

change in the aging index will be

small. Generally, however, the proportional rise in the aging index in

developing countries is expected to

be greater than in developed

countries.

The aging index also is useful in

examining within-country differences in the level of population

aging. As noted in Chapter 5, there

can be significant differences in the

extent of aging between urban and

rural areas. There may also be

Figure 2-6.

Speed of Population Aging 

Sources: Kinsella and Gist, 1995; U.S. Census Bureau, 2000a.

(Number of years required or expected for percent of population aged 65 

and over to rise from 7 percent to 14 percent)

Colombia (2017-2037)

Brazil (2011-2032)

Thailand (2003-2025)

Tunisia (2009-2032)

Sri Lanka (2004-2027)

Jamaica (2009-2033)

Chile (2000-2025)

Singapore (2001-2028)

China (2000-2027)

Azerbaijan (2000-2041)

Japan (1970-1996)

Spain (1947-1992)

United Kingdom (1930-1975)

Poland (1966-2013)

Hungary (1941-1994)

Canada (1944-2009)

United States (1944-2013)

Australia (1938-2011)

Sweden (1890-1975)

France (1865-1980)

20

115

85

73

69

65

53

47

45

45

26

41

27

27

25

24

23

22

21

23

Developed countries

Developing countries
14 An Aging World: 2001 U.S. Census Bureau

Figure 2-7.

Aging Index: 2000 and 2030

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000a. 

United States

New Zealand

Japan

Canada

Australia

Ukraine

Russia

Poland

Hungary

Czech Republic

Bulgaria

United Kingdom

Sweden

Norway

Luxembourg

Italy

Greece

Germany

France

Denmark

Belgium

Austria 92

186

96

172

80

143

85

155

103

187

114

206

261

127

74

117

76

131

94

169

82

152

106

244

84

216

87

64

179

160

70

141

78

133

60

126

66

148

115

231

51

103

59

102

(People aged 65 and over per 100 people aged 0-14) 

Western Europe

Eastern Europe

Other Developed Countries

DEVELOPED COUNTRIES

2000

2030

Zimbabwe

Tunisia

Morocco

Malawi

Liberia

Kenya

Egypt

Uruguay

Peru

Mexico

Jamaica

Guatemala

Costa Rica

Colombia

Chile

Brazil

Argentina

Turkey

Thailand

Sri Lanka

South Korea

Singapore

Philippines

Pakistan

Malaysia

Israel

Indonesia

India

China

Bangladesh

Asia

Latin America/Caribbean 

Africa

DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

9

27

14

15

36

12

10

10

38

32

25

27

21

32

91

38

52

73

36

25

30

96

125

85

96

71

39

18

26

14

16

9

22

13

13

53

74

69

90

50

64

18

67

45

43

73

11

6

8

6

13

20

9

34

19

11

10

40

71

23
U.S. Census Bureau An Aging World: 2001 15

Amazonas Para

Amapa

Mato Grosso

Acre

Roraima

Rondonia

Parana

Rio Grande

do Sul

Mato Grosso

do Sul

Santa

Catarina

Sao Paulo

Minas Gerais

Rio de

Janeiro

Espirito

Santo

Bahia

Goias

Tocantins

Maranhao

Piaui

Ceara

Sergipe

Alagoas

Pernambuco

Paraiba

Rio Grande

do Norte

Figure 2-8.

Aging Index in Brazil by State: 1991

Source: 1991 Census of Brazil.

5.4 to 8.9

9.0 to 11.9

12.0 to 13.9

14.0 to 21.0

Aging index

(Population aged 65 and over per 100 population aged 0-14)
16 An Aging World: 2001 U.S. Census Bureau

broader regional differences, especially in large nations such as Brazil

(Figure 2-8). Based on 1991 census

data, the overall aging index in

Brazil was 14. However, this measure ranged from less than 6 in several northern states of the country

to 21 in the state of Rio de Janeiro. 

MEDIAN AGE TO RISE IN 

ALL COUNTRIES

Population aging refers most simply

to increasing proportions of older

people within an overall population

age structure. Another way to think

of population aging is to consider a

society’s median age, the age that

divides a population into numerically equal parts of younger and older

people. For example, the 2000

median age in the United States was

36 years, indicating that the number of people under age 36 equals

the number who have already celebrated their 36th birthday.

The 2000 median ages of the 52

study countries ranged from 17 in

Malawi to 41 in Japan. Developed

countries are all above the 32-year

level, while a majority of developing nations have median ages under

25. During the next three decades,

the median age will increase in all

52 countries, though at very different rates. By 2030, Italy is projected to have the highest median age,

with half its population aged 52 or

over (Figure 2-9), reflecting in large

part the extremely low level of fertility now occurring. By way of contrast, persistently high birth rates

are likely to preclude a large change

in median age in some developing

countries (e.g., Liberia and Malawi). 

Figure 2-9.

Median Age in 12 Countries: 2000, 2015, and 2030

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000a. 

2000 

2015 

2030

Thailand

Pakistan

Mexico

Malawi

Liberia

China

Brazil

United States

Italy

Japan

Germany

Canada

Developed countries

Developing countries

37

40

41

40

36

41

45

45

46

38

44

47

50

52

39

26

30

18

17

23

19

29

31

36

18

20

28

24

35

37

41

20

23

34

29

40

(In years)
THE DYNAMICS OF

POPULATION AGING

The process of population aging is,

as noted earlier, primarily determined by fertility (birth) rates and

secondarily by mortality (death)

rates, so that populations with high

fertility tend to have low proportions of older people and vice

versa. Demographers use the term

“demographic transition” to refer to

a gradual process2 wherein a society moves from a situation of high

rates of fertility and mortality to

one of low rates of fertility and

mortality. This transition is characterized first by declines in infant

and childhood mortality as infectious and parasitic diseases are

reduced. The resulting improvement in life expectancy at birth

occurs while fertility tends to

remain high, thereby producing

large birth cohorts and an expanding proportion of children relative

to adults. Other things being equal,

this initial decline in mortality generates a younger population age

structure (Lee, 1994).

Generally, populations begin to age

when fertility declines and adult

mortality rates improve. Successive

birth cohorts may eventually

become smaller and smaller,

although countries may experience

a “baby boom echo” as women of

prior large birth cohorts reach childbearing age. International migration

usually does not play a major role

in the aging process, but can be

important in smaller populations.

Certain Caribbean nations, for

example, have experienced a combination of emigration of workingage adults, immigration of elderly

U.S. Census Bureau An Aging World: 2001 17

2 The concept of demographic transition

admittedly is a broad one, and some would

argue that it has many permutations or that

there is more than one form of demographic

transition; see, for example, the discussion in

Coale and Watkins (1986).

retirees from other countries, and aged 25 to 44, and younger cohorts

return migration of former emi- were becoming successively smallgrants who are above the average er. If fertility rates continue as propopulation age; all three factors jected through 2030, the aggregate

contribute to population aging. pyramid will start to invert, with

Some demographers expect interna- more weight on the top than on the

tional migration to assume a more bottom. The size of the oldest-old

prominent role in the aging process, population (especially women) will

particularly in graying countries increase, and people aged 80 and

where persistently low fertility has over may eventually outnumber any

led to stable or even declining total younger 5-year group. Although

population size (see Box 2-1). the effect of fertility decline usually

Eventual shortages of workers may has been the driving force in changgenerate demands for immigrant ing population age structures, curlabor (Peterson, 1999) and may rent and future changes in mortality

force nations to choose between will assume much greater weight,

relaxed immigration policies and particularly in relatively “aged”

pronatalist strategies to raise birth countries (Caselli and Vallin, 1990),

rates (Kojima, 1996). and are discussed further in the

next chapter. Figure 2-10 illustrates the historical

and projected aggregate population ELDERLY POPULATIONS

age structure transition in develop- THEMSELVES OFTEN ARE AGING

ing and developed countries. At An increasingly important feature of one time, most if not all countries societal aging is the progressive had a youthful age structure similar aging of the elderly population to that of developing countries as a itself. Over time, a nation’s elderly whole in 1950, with a large percent- population may grow older on aver- age of the entire population under age as a larger proportion survives the age of 15. Given the relatively to 80 years and beyond. In many high rates of fertility that prevailed countries, the “oldest old” (people in most developing countries from aged 80 and over) are now the 1950 through the early 1970s, the fastest growing portion of the total overall pyramid shape had not population. In the mid-1990s, the changed greatly by 1990. However, global growth rate of the oldest old the effects of fertility and mortality was somewhat lower than that of decline can be seen in the projected the world’s elderly, a result of low pyramid for 2030, which loses its fertility that prevailed in many strictly triangular shape as the size countries around the time of World of younger 5-year cohorts stabilizes War I. In other words, people who and the elderly portion of the total were reaching age 80 in 1996, for population increases. example, were part of a relatively

The picture in developed countries small birth cohort. The growth rate

has been and will be quite different. of the world’s oldest-old population

In 1950, there was relatively little from 1996 to 1997 was only 

variation in the size of 5-year 1.3 percent. Just a few years later,

groups between the ages of 5 and however, the fertility effects of

24. The beginnings of the post- World War I had dissipated; from

World War II baby boom can be 1999 to 2000, the growth rate of

seen in the 0-4 age group. By the world’s 80-and-over population

1990, the baby-boom cohorts were had jumped to 3.5 percent,
18 An Aging World: 2001 U.S. Census Bureau

Box 2-1.

Population Aging in the Context of Overall Population Decline

European demographers have sounded warning bells means to affect fertility, including direct financial

for at least the last 30 years with regard to the pos- incentives for additional births; indirect pension (i.e.,

sibility of declining population size in industrialized early retirement) or in-kind benefits such as preferennations. Until very recently, however, this idea had tial access for mothers with many children to subsinot permeated public discourse. Societies were dized housing; or measures to reduce the opportunity

aware that they were aging, but the equation of costs of additional childbearing. These policies have

aging with population decline was uncommon. In had modest impacts in authoritarian states, but only

the last 2 years, the visibility of likely population minimal impacts in liberal democracies such as France

decline has increased dramatically, in large part due and Sweden (Teitelbaum, 2000). Industrial societies

to United Nations (2000a; 2000b) reports suggesting already provide various rewards, but using them to

that populations in most of Europe and Japan will deliberately manipulate fertility is a sensitive issue,

decrease in size over the next 50 years, and to pub- potentially involving substantial economic transfers.

licity accorded to actual declines in Spain, Italy, The United Nations (2000a) undertook an examination Russia, and other nations. of the likely impact of migration as a counterbalance

This trend raises several contentious issues: Is per- to aging, building on earlier work by Lesthaeghe,

sistent below-replacement fertility a threat to Page, and Surkyn (1988), the Organization for

European and other societies, and if so, can it be Economic Co-Operation and Development (1991), and

altered? To what extent, if any, should so-called others. The conclusion was that inflows of migrants

“replacement migration” be encouraged as a mecha- will not be able to prevent European population

nism to offset population aging? Are there important declines in the future, nor rejuvenate national populamacroeconomic (e.g., transnational capital flows; tions, unless the migration flows are of very large

changes in national savings rates) and national securi- magnitude (i.e., millions annually). On the heels of

ty issues that should be considered? this report, the United Nations convened an Expert

Group Meeting on Policy Responses to Population There are no hard and fast answers to these ques- Aging and Population Decline in October 2000. The tions. One study (Bongaarts and Bulatao, 2000) exam- consensus of the experts was that replacement migra- ined the experience of the diverse set of countries tion was not a viable “solution” in and of itself, but that have made the transition to low fertility. In very could buffer the likely impact of future aging if used few of these countries has fertility stabilized at rates by governments in conjunction with other policies above two children per woman. Such an occurrence (e.g., increased labor force participation, especially would be dependent on substantial proportions of among women; fertility inducements as noted above). higher-order births, but higher-order births are largely With regard to global financial and security issues, lit- “anachronistic” in industrial-country settings. The ten- tle systematic work has been done on overall tative conclusion was that fertility is unlikely to impacts, though researchers are beginning to explore rebound significantly, but it has been noted that few and model various scenarios (see, e.g., CSIS and demographers anticipated the post-World War II baby Watson Wyatt, 2000; Eberstadt, 2000; MacKellar and boom that will soon have a major impact on popula- Ermolieva, 2001; Mason et al., 2001). tion aging. Governments have employed various
Figure 2-10.

Population by Age and Sex: 1950, 1990, and 2030

Sources: United Nations, 1999 and U.S. Census Bureau, 2000a.

Developing countries

Developed countries

1950

Millions

400 300 200 100

 0- 4

 5- 9

 10-14

 15-19

 20-24

 25-29

 30-34

 35-39

 40-44

 45-49

 50-54

 55-59

 60-64

 65-69

 70-74

 75-79

 80+

0 100 200 300 400

1990

400 300 200 100

 0- 4

 5- 9

 10-14

 15-19

 20-24

 25-29

 30-34

 35-39

 40-44

 45-49

 50-54

 55-59

 60-64

 65-69

 70-74

 75-79

 80+

0 100 200 300 400

2030

400 300 200 100

 0- 4

 5- 9

 10-14

 15-19

 20-24

 25-29

 30-34

 35-39

 40-44

 45-49

 50-54

 55-59

 60-64

 65-69

 70-74

 75-79

 80+

0 100 200 300 400

Male Female

Age

U.S. Census Bureau An Aging World: 2001 19
20 An Aging World: 2001 U.S. Census Bureau

considerably higher than that of the

world’s elderly as a whole (2.3 percent). In the future, we expect to

see sustained high growth of the

oldest old. In the first decade of the

twenty-first century, the projected

average annual growth rate of the

80-and-over population is 3.9 percent (versus 2.0 percent for the 

65-and-over population), and is

expected to remain above 3 percent

during the period 2010-2020. 

The oldest old constituted 17 percent of the world’s elderly in 2000:

22 percent in developed countries

and 13 percent in developing countries. More than half (53 percent) of

the world’s oldest old in 2000 lived

in just six countries: China, the

United States, India, Japan,

Germany, and Russia (Figure 2-11).

About an additional one-fifth (22

percent) lived elsewhere in Europe,

while 7 percent lived in Latin

America/Caribbean and about 6

percent lived in Africa/Near East

regions, and another 9 percent in

Asian countries other than China,

India, and Japan.

Among the 52 study countries, the

percentage of oldest old in the total

population in 2000 was less than

half a percent in several developing

countries (e.g., Egypt, Guatemala,

Indonesia, Kenya, and Malawi). In

contrast, the oldest old constituted

5 percent of the total population of

Sweden, and 4 percent or more of countries (e.g., Barbados, Cuba,

the total in several other European Puerto Rico, and Uruguay) have

countries (Denmark, Italy, Norway, higher levels than many Eastern

and the United Kingdom). In gener- European nations. 

al, Western European nations are Countries vary considerably in the above 3 percent, while other projected age components of elder- developed countries are between 2 ly populations. In the United States, and 3 percent. In most developing the oldest old were 26 percent of all nations, less than 1 percent of the elderly in 2000, and are expected population is aged 80 and over, to continue to be 26 percent in although some developing

Figure 2-11.

Percent Distribution of World Population 

Aged 80 and Over: 2000

Note: Data represent the share of the world's total oldest old in each country or region. Individual 

countries with more than 2.0 percent of the total are shown separately. 

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000a.

All remaining countries

Africa/Near East

Latin America/Caribbean

Other Europe

Spain

France

Italy

United Kingdom

Germany

Russia

Other Asia

Japan

India

China

United States 13.1

16.3

8.7

6.6

8.9

4.2

4.1

3.4

3.3

3.1

2.1

10.5

6.9

5.8

3.1
U.S. Census Bureau An Aging World: 2001 21

2030 (Figure 2-12). Some European Stability in the proportion of oldest

nations will experience a sustained old in the elderly population should

rise in this ratio, while others will not deflect attention from burgeonsee an increase during the next two ing absolute numbers. In the

decades and then a subsequent United States, the oldest old

decline. The most striking global increased from 374 thousand in

increase is likely to occur in Japan; 1900 to more than 9 million today.

by 2030, nearly 40 percent of all The small percentage decline for

elderly Japanese are expected to be the United States in Figure 2-12

at least 80 years old. Most masks a projected absolute increase

developing countries should experi- of over 9 million oldest-old people.

ence modest long-term increases in Four-generation families are becomthis ratio. ing increasingly common (Soldo,

1996), and the aging of the baby

boom may produce a great-grandparent boom in many countries.

The numerical growth and increasing heterogeneity of the oldest old

compel social planners to seek further health and socioeconomic

information about this group,

because the oldest old consume

disproportionate amounts of health

and long-term care services

(Suzman, Willis, and Manton, 1992).

Past population projections often

have underestimated the improvement in mortality rates among the

oldest old, and as the next chapter

points out, actual numbers of

tomorrow’s oldest old could be

much higher than presently anticipated. Because of the sustained

increases in longevity in many

nations, greater age detail is needed

for the oldest old. In the past, comparable population projections for

the world’s countries often grouped

everyone aged 80 and over into a

single, open-ended component.

Today, for the first time, agencies

(e.g., the United Nations Population

Division; the U.S. Census Bureau’s

International Programs Center) are

producing sets of international population projections that expand the

range of older age groups up to an

open-ended category of age 100

and over.

Figure 2-12.

Oldest Old as a Percent of All Elderly: 2000 and 2030

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000a.

United States

Russia

Pakistan

Japan

Bulgaria

Argentina

(People aged 80 and over as a percent of people aged 65 and over)

2000

2030

26.4

21.7

13.2

21.7

13.3

15.9

26.5

27.3

27.8

39.3

14.4

20.0
22 An Aging World: 2001 U.S. Census Bureau

Box 2-2.

The Growth of Centenarians

As average length of life increases, the concept of There are several problems with obtaining accurate

“oldest old” will change. While people of extreme old age data on very old people (Kestenbaum, 1992; Elo

age constitute a tiny portion of total population in et al., 1996), and estimates of centenarians from cenmost of the world, their numbers are of growing suses and other data sources should be scrutinized

importance, especially in more-developed nations. carefully. For example, the 1990 United States census

Thanks to improvements in nutrition, health, and recorded some 37,000 centenarians, although due to

health care, we now have for the first time in history age misreporting, the actual figure is thought to be

the opportunity to consider significant numeric closer to 28,000, (Krach and Velkoff, 1999). Still, this

growth of the population aged 100 and over. represents a doubling of the population aged 100 and

According to researchers in Europe, the number of over from 1980 to 1990, similar to estimates for

centenarians has doubled each decade since 1950 in European nations. The potentially spectacular

industrialized countries. Using reliable statistics from increase in numbers of centenarians is illustrated by

ten Western European countries and Japan, Vaupel and data and projections for France. Dinh (1995) has estiJeune (1995) estimated that some 8,800 centenarians mated that there were about 200 centenarians in

lived in these countries as of 1990, and that the num- France in 1950, and that by the year 2000 the number of centenarians grew at an average annual rate of ber would be 8,500. His 50-year projections suggest

approximately 7 percent between the early 1950s and 41,000 people aged 100 and over by 2025, increasthe late 1980s. They also estimate that, over the ing to 150,000 in 2050. If these projections are realcourse of human history, the odds of living from birth ized, the number of centenarians in France will have

to age 100 may have risen from 1 in 20 million to 1 multiplied by a factor of 750 in one century.

in 50 for females in low-mortality nations such as

Japan and Sweden. 
U.S. Census Bureau An Aging World: 2001 23

CHAPTER 3.

Life Expectancy and 

Changing Mortality

The spectacular increases in human European nations, the normal the world have been fairly uniform.

life expectancy that began in the lifetime in many African countries Practically all nations have shown

mid-1800s and continued during spans fewer than 45 years. On continued improvement, with some

the following century are often average, an individual born in a exceptions in Latin America and

ascribed primarily to improvements more-developed country can now more recently in Africa, the latter

in medicine. However, the major expect to outlive his/her counter- due to the impact of the HIV/AIDS

impact of improvements both in part in the less-developed world by epidemic. The most dramatic gains

medicine and sanitation did not 13 years. in the developing world have been

occur until the late nineteenth cen- in East Asia, where life expectancy

TWENTIETH CENTURY LIFE tury. Earlier and more important at birth increased from less than 

EXPECTANCY HAS DOUBLED IN factors in lowering mortality were 45 years in 1950 to more than SOME DEVELOPED COUNTRIES

innovations in industrial and agri- 72 years today.

cultural production and distribution, Table 3-1 shows the enormous

which improved nutrition for large strides that countries have made in TREND IN RISING LIFE

EXPECTANCY MAY BE numbers of people (Thomlinson, extending life expectancy since CHALLENGED

1976). A growing research consen- 1900. In developed countries, the

sus attributes the gain in human average national gain in life While global gains in life expectancy

longevity since the early 1800s to a expectancy at birth was 66 percent at birth have been the norm,

complex interplay of advancements for males and 71 percent for unforeseen changes and epidemics

in medicine and sanitation coupled females during the period 1900-90. may reverse the usual historical patwith new modes of familial, social, In Italy, life expectancy at birth for tern. Beginning in the 1950s, the

economic, and political organization women increased from 43 years in typical sustained increase in life

(Moore, 1993). 1900 to over 82 years in 2000. In expectancy at birth in developed

some cases, life expectancy has countries began to take different

LIFE EXPECTANCY AT BIRTH more than doubled during the cen- paths. While female life expectancy

EXCEEDS 78 YEARS IN 28 tury (e.g., Spain). continued to rise virtually every- COUNTRIES where, male gains slowed signifi- Increases in life expectancy were Life expectancy at birth in Japan cantly and in some cases leveled more rapid in the first half than in and Singapore has reached off. From the early 1950s to the the second half of the century. 80 years, the highest level of all the early 1970s, for example, male life Expansion of public health services world’s major countries, and has expectancy changed little in and facilities and disease eradica- reached 79 years in several other Australia, the Netherlands, Norway, tion programs greatly reduced developed nations (e.g., Australia, and the United States. After this

death rates, particularly among Canada, Italy, Iceland, Sweden, and period of stagnation, male life infants and children. From 1900 to Switzerland). Levels for the United expectancy again began to rise. 1950, people in many Western States and most other developed nations were able to add 20 years In Eastern Europe and the former countries fall in the 76-78 year or more to their life expectancies. Soviet Union, the pace of improve- range (Figure 3-1). Throughout the ment in the 1950s and early 1960s developing world, there are Reliable estimates of life expectancy was extraordinary. Advances in extreme variations in life expectan- for many developing countries prior living conditions and public health cy at birth (Figure 3-2). While the to 1950 are unavailable. Since policies combined to produce large levels in some developing nations World War II, changes in life declines in mortality by reducing match or exceed those in many expectancy in developing regions of some major causes of death 
(e.g., tuberculosis) to minimal levels (Vishnevsky, Shkolnikov, and

Vassin, 1991). Resultant gains in

life expectancy in excess of 

5 years per decade were common.

By the mid-1960s, however, the

rate of increase had decelerated

sharply. In the 1970s and 1980s,

changes in female life expectancy

at birth were erratic, while male

life expectancy fell throughout the

region (Bobadilla and Costello,

1997). Following the demise of

the former Soviet Union, the

decline has continued into the

1990s in some countries. The

decline has been particularly

severe for Russian men; between

1987 and 1994, male life

expectancy at birth plummeted 

7.3 years to a level of 57.6, before

beginning to rise again in recent

years (Figure 3-3). The large

increases in adult male mortality

usually are attributed to a combination of factors including

increased homicide and accident

rates, excessive alcohol consumption, poor diet, and environmental/workplace degradation

(Virganskaya and Dmitriev, 1992;

Murray and Bobadilla, 1997),

although most researchers take

pains to point out that clear causal

mechanisms remain poorly

understood.

24 An Aging World: 2001 U.S. Census Bureau

Figure 3-1.

Life Expectancy at Birth: 2000

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000a. 

Malawi

Zimbabwe

Kenya

Liberia

Egypt

Morocco

Tunisia

Brazil

Guatemala

Peru

Colombia

Mexico

Argentina

Jamaica

Uruguay

Chile

Costa Rica

Bangladesh

Pakistan

India

Philippines

Indonesia

Thailand

Malaysia

Turkey

China

Sri Lanka

South Korea

Israel

Singapore

New Zealand

Canada

Australia

Japan

Ukraine

Russia

Bulgaria

Hungary

Poland

Czech Republic

Denmark

Luxembourg

Germany

United Kingdom

Austria

Belgium

Greece

Norway

France

Italy

Sweden

United States

Developed countries

(In years) Developing countries

37.6

77.1

79.6

79.0

78.8

78.7

78.4

77.8

77.7

77.7

77.4

77.1

76.5

74.5

73.2

71.4

70.9

67.2

66.0

80.7

79.8

79.4

77.8

80.1

78.6

74.4

71.8

71.4

71.0

70.8

68.6

68.0

67.5

62.5

61.1

60.2

75.8

75.7

75.2

75.2

75.1

71.5

70.3

70.0

66.2

62.9

73.7

69.1

63.3

51.0

48.0

37.8

Western Europe

Eastern Europe

Other Developed

Asia

Latin America/Caribbean

Africa
U.S. Census Bureau An Aging World: 2001 25 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000a. Figure 3-2. Life Expectancy at Birth: 2000 
26 An Aging World: 2001 U.S. Census Bureau

Table 3-1.

Life Expectancy at Birth in 34 Countries:

(In years)

1900 to 2000

Region/country

Circa 1900 Circa 1950 2000

Male Female Male Female Male Female

DEVELOPED COUNTRIES

Western Europe

Austria . . . ................................

Belgium ..................................

Denmark .................................

France . . . ................................

1 Germany ................................

Norway ..................................

Sweden ..................................

United Kingdom . . .........................

Southern and Eastern Europe

Czech Republic1 ..........................

Greece...................................

Hungary. . ................................

Italy. . . ...................................

Spain ....................................

Other

Australia .................................

Japan ....................................

United States . . ...........................

DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

Africa

Egypt ....................................

Ghana ...................................

Mali. .....................................

South Africa ..............................

Uganda . . ................................

Congo (Brazzaville). . . .....................

Asia

China . . . .................................

India .....................................

Kazakhstan...............................

South Korea . . . . ..........................

Syria. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Thailand. .................................

Latin America

Argentina. . . . .............................

Brazil ....................................

Costa Rica . . .............................

Chile.....................................

Mexico ...................................

Venezuela . . . . . . ..........................

37.8

45.4

51.6

45.3

43.8

52.3

52.8

46.4

38.9

38.1

36.6

42.9

33.9

53.2

42.8

48.3

39.9

48.9

54.8

48.7

46.6

55.8

55.3

50.1

41.7

39.7

38.2

43.2

35.7

56.8

44.3

51.1

62.0

62.1

68.9

63.7

64.6

70.3

69.9

66.2

60.9

63.4

59.3

63.7

59.8

66.7

59.6

66.0

67.0

67.4

71.5

69.4

68.5

73.8

72.6

71.1

65.5

66.7

63.4

67.2

64.3

71.8

63.1

71.7

74.5

74.5

74.0

74.9

74.3

75.7

77.0

75.0

71.0

75.9

67.0

75.9

75.3

76.9

77.5

74.2

81.0

81.3

79.3

82.9

80.8

81.8

82.4

80.5

78.2

81.2

76.1

82.4

82.5

82.7

84.1

79.9

Circa 1950 2000

Male Female Male Female

41.2

40.4

31.1

44.0

38.5

37.5

39.3

39.4

51.6

46.0

44.8

45.0

60.4

49.3

56.0

57.8

49.2

53.8

43.6

43.6

34.0

46.0

41.6

40.6

42.3

38.0

61.9

49.0

47.2

49.1

65.1

52.8

58.6

61.3

52.4

56.6

61.3

56.1

45.5

50.4

42.2

44.5

69.6

61.9

57.7

70.8

67.4

65.3

71.7

58.5

73.3

72.4

68.5

70.1

65.5

58.8

47.9

51.8

43.7

50.5

73.3

63.1

68.9

78.5

69.6

72.0

78.6

67.6

78.5

79.2

74.7

76.3

1

Figures for Germany and Czech Republic prior to 1999 refer to the former West Germany and Czechoslovakia, respectively.

Note: Reliable estimates for 1900 for most developing countries are not available.

Source: UNDIESA 1988; Siampos 1990; and U.S. Census Bureau, 2000a.
Elsewhere, the HIV/AIDS epidemic

has had a devastating impact on life

expectancy, particularly in parts of

Africa. The effect of the epidemic

on life expectancy at birth may be

considerable, given that AIDS

deaths often are concentrated in the

childhood and middle adult (30 to

45) ages. Projections to the year

2010 suggest that AIDS may reduce

life expectancy at birth by more

than 30 years from otherwiseexpected levels in countries such as

Botswana, Namibia, South Africa,

and Zimbabwe. And while the common perception of AIDS mortality

usually associates AIDS deaths with

children and younger adults, the

epidemic may have a direct and

growing effect on older populations. In the United States in 1992,

nearly three times as many people

aged 60 and over died of AIDS as

did people under age 20. Between

1987 and 1992, the annual number

of U.S. children who died of AIDS

remained relatively stable, whereas

the number of deaths to people

aged 60 and over nearly doubled

(Hobbs and Damon, 1996).

U.S. Census Bureau An Aging World: 2001 27

Figure 3-3.

Life Expectancy at Birth in Four 

Countries: 1950 to 1998

Sources: United Nations, 1999; U.S. Census Bureau, 2000a; and country sources.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 1998

South Korea

Life expectancy in years

 United States

Russia

 United States

Male

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 1998

Life expectancy in years

Female

Zimbabwe

Russia

South Korea

Zimbabwe
FEMALE ADVANTAGE IN LIFE

EXPECTANCY NEARLY

UNIVERSAL

The widening of the sex differential

in life expectancy has been a central

feature of mortality trends in developed countries in the twentieth century. In 1900, in Europe and North

America, women typically outlived

men by 2 or 3 years. Today, the

average gap between the sexes is

roughly 7 years, but exceeds 

12 years in parts of the former

Soviet Union as a result of the

unusually high levels of male mortality discussed above (Figure 3-4).

This differential reflects the fact that

in most nations females have lower

mortality than males in every age

group and for most causes of death.

Female life expectancy now exceeds

80 years in over 30 countries and is

approaching this level in many other

nations. The gender differential

usually is smaller in developing

countries, commonly in the 3-6 year

range, and even is reversed in some

South Asian and Middle East societies where cultural factors (such as

low female social status and preference for male rather than female offspring) are thought to contribute to

higher male than female life

expectancy at birth.

MALE MORTALITY

SUBSTANTIALLY HIGHER THAN

FEMALE MORTALITY AT

OLDER AGES

The data in Figure 3-5 illustrate the

usual gender pattern of mortality at

older ages, wherein male rates are

seen to be consistently higher than

female rates. In Canada and

Germany, for instance, male mortality rates for ages 65 to 74 are

roughly twice as great as corresponding female rates. Among countries, though, age-specific mortality

rates can differ widely even where

overall mortality appears similar.

28 An Aging World: 2001 U.S. Census Bureau

Figure 3-4.

Female Advantage in Life Expectancy at Birth: 2000

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000a.

Chile

China

Egypt

Mexico

Syria

Bangladesh

Spain

United States

Russia

Hungary

Japan

France

Belarus

(Difference in years between females and males) Developed countries

Developing countries

6.8

12.7

8.0

6.5

9.1

10.7

5.7

7.2

-0.5

2.3

6.2

4.2

3.7

Figure 3-5.

Mortality Rates at Older Ages: 2000

Source: Estimated by the U.S. Census Bureau based on individual country sources.

80+

75-79

70-74

65-69

80+

75-79

70-74

65-69

80+

75-79

70-74

65-69

(Per 1,000 population in age/sex group)

Male

Female

116

Canada

23

36

57

117

30

46

68

138

26

40

65

147

12

19

32

87

16

25

 45

108

12

21

38

Uruguay

Germany
For example, total life expectancy cited as a source of higher male

at birth in 1995 was about the mortality rates (Statistics Canada,

same in Cuba (75.4 years) and 1997), suggesting that the gap in

Portugal (74.7 years). However, life expectancy might decrease if

World Health Organization data for women increased their use of

1995 show that the female mortali- tobacco and alcohol and their party rate for ages 55 to 64 was ticipation in the labor force.

30 percent lower in Portugal than in However, data from industrialized

Cuba, and the female mortality rate countries still show no clear pattern

at ages 65 to 74 was about 20 per- of change in the gender gap; the

cent lower. For older men, on the gap is widening in most of Eastern

other hand, rates were 15 percent Europe and the former Soviet Union

higher in each age group in and tends to be narrowing in other

Portugal than in Cuba. developed countries. In the United

States, for instance, life expectancy

WILL THE GENDER GAP IN LIFE at birth increased 3.0 years for men EXPECTANCY NARROW? and 1.6 years for women between

Precise explanations of the gender 1980 and 1996. But in some

difference in life expectancy still nations with very high overall life

elude scientists because of the expectancy (e.g., France, Germany,

apparent complex interplay of bio- Japan), gains in female longevity

logical, social, and behavioral condi- continue to outpace those of males.

tions. Greater exposure to risk fac- Given the small average gender gap tors such as tobacco and alcohol in life expectancy in developing use and occupational hazards is countries relative to developed

nations, most demographers expect

to see a widening of the

female/male difference in upcoming

decades, along the lines of the historical trend in industrialized

nations. Evidence suggests that

many developing countries are

experiencing increases in alcohol

and tobacco consumption and

vehicular as well as industrial accidents, all of which tend, at least initially, to adversely affect men more

than women. Another factor that

may promote a widening gender

gap is education, which is positively

related to survival. As women

“catch up” to men in terms of educational attainment, female survival

and health status may improve (Liu,

Hermalin, and Chuang, 1998).

OLD-AGE MORTALITY RATES

DECLINING OVER TIME

In countries where infant mortality

rates are still relatively high but

declining, most of the improvement

in life expectancy at birth results

from helping infants survive the

high-risk initial years of life. But

when a nation’s infant and childhood mortality reach low levels,

longevity gains in older segments

of the population begin to assume

greater weight (Caselli and Vallin,

1990; Gjonca, Brockmann, and

Maier, 1999). Most countries are

experiencing a rise in life expectancy at age 65, as exemplified by

Japanese and U.S. data in Figure 3-6.

The average Japanese woman

reaching age 65 in 1998 could

expect to live an additional 

22 years, and the average man

more than 17 years. Overall (i.e.,

both sexes combined) Japanese life

expectancy at age 65 increased 

40 percent from 1970 to 1998,

compared with an overall increase

in life expectancy at birth of 9 percent. Comparative figures for the

United States are 17 and 8 percent,

U.S. Census Bureau An Aging World: 2001 29

Figure 3-6.

Life Expectancy at Age 65 in Japan and the 

United States: 1970, 1980, and 1998

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000a.

1998

1980

1970

1998

1980

1970

1998

1980

1970

1998

1980

1970

(Years of life remaining for those who reach age 65)

19.2

12.5

14.6

17.1

15.3

17.7

22.0

13.1

14.1

16.0

17.0

18.3

Japan, Male

Japan, Female

United States, Male

United States, Female
respectively. Although greater relative improvement in life expectancy

at older ages may not yet be widespread in developing regions of the

world, the proportional increase in

life expectancy at older ages is

approaching or has surpassed the

relative increase in life expectancy

at birth in some developing countries, notably in Latin America and

the Caribbean (Kinsella, 1994).

The rise in life expectancy at age 65

that is characteristic of most societies means that the chances of

dying for particular older age

groups are declining. Figure 3-7

shows across-the-board declines in

mortality in two older age groups

(with the exception of women aged

80 to 84 in Mauritius) during a fairly recent 10-year period. In general, mortality improvements for

people aged 70 to 74 have been

greater than for people aged 80 to

84, reflecting the growing robustness of younger elderly cohorts.

MORTALITY RATE INCREASE

APPEARS TO LESSEN AT VERY

OLD AGES

As long ago as the early 1800s,

research demonstrated that the

human death rate increases with

age in an exponential manner, at

least to the upper ranges of the age

distribution. Recently, researchers

have documented that, at very old

ages, the rate of increase in the

mortality rate tends to slow down.

In a study of 28 countries with reasonably-reliable data for the period

1950-90, Kannisto (1994) noted not

only a decline in mortality rates at

ages 80 and over, but a tendency

toward greater decline in morerecent time periods. Other work

has confirmed this tendency (e.g.,

Wilmoth et al., 2000), and a recent

study in the United States suggests

that the age at which mortality

deceleration occurs is rising (Lynch may slow down at very old ages,

and Brown, 2001). and/or that certain genes that are

detrimental to survival may be sup- Findings such as these have gener- pressed (see Horiuchi and Wilmoth, ated at least two potential explana- 1998, for a discussion and examina- tions. The “heterogeneity” hypothe- tion of these hypotheses). The sis, an extension of the notion of observed deceleration in mortality, “survival of the fittest,” posits that combined with the fact that human the deceleration in old-age mortality mortality at older ages has declined is a result of frailer elderly dying at substantially, has led to the ques- younger ages, thus creating a very tioning of many of the theoretical old population with exceptionally tenets of aging (Vaupel et al., 1998). healthy attributes resulting from Important insights are being gar- genetic endowment and/or lifestyle. nered from “biodemographic” A second, “individual-risk” hypothe- research which attempts to sis, suggests that the rate of aging

30 An Aging World: 2001 U.S. Census Bureau

Figure 3-7.

Percent Change in Death Rates for Two Older 

Age Groups: Circa 1985 to Circa 1995 

Source: United Nations, various issues of the annual Demographic Yearbook.

Austria

Japan

Israel

Chile

United States

Mauritius

Netherlands

France

Male

Austria

Japan

Israel

Chile

United States

Mauritius

Netherlands

France

(Based on 3-year average of mortality rates centered on 1985 and 1995)

70-74 years 

80-84 years

Female

-20

-6

-7

-27

-6

-24

-20

-27

-23

 -20

 -8

9

-8

 -10

 -16

 -28

 -22

-3

-13

-16

-14

-20

-16

-16

-19

-14

-3

-12

-10

-3

-13

-17
cross-fertilize the biologic and England and Wales is about 

demographic perspectives of aging 50 percent higher today than in

and senescence. While a clearer pic- 1950. Consequently, the number of

ture of the causes of mortality decel- female octogenarians is about 50

eration at very old ages awaits fur- percent higher than it would have

ther investigation (and will benefit been had oldest-old mortality

from the study of evolutionary biol- remained at 1950 levels; in absolute

ogy and aging in nonhuman terms, this means that there are

species; see Olshansky, 1998; more than one-half million oldest-old

Wachter and Finch, 1997; Le Bourg, British women alive today who oth2001), its recognition at a time erwise would have been dead in the

when numbers of the very old are absence of mortality improvement.

growing rapidly has important poli- An example from the United States cy implications. illustrates the range of future uncerPACE OF MORTALITY CHANGE tainty about the size of tomorrow’s

DIFFICULT TO PROJECT oldest-old population. The U.S.

Census Bureau estimated the num- The pace at which death rates at ber of people aged 85 and over in advanced ages decline will play a the United States to be about major role in determining future 3.6 million in 1995 and has made numbers of elderly and especially of several projections of the future very old population. Vaupel (1997) size of this age group (Day, 1996; has noted that the remaining life U.S. Census Bureau, 2000b). The expectancy of 80-year-old women in Census Bureau’s middle-mortality

series projection suggests that

there will be 14.3 million people

aged 85 and over in the year 2040,

while the low-mortality (i.e., high

life expectancy) series implies 

16.8 million. As those who will be

85 years old and over in the year

2040 are already at least 40 years

old, the differences in these projections result almost exclusively from

assumptions about adult mortality

rates and are not affected by future

birth or infant mortality rates. In

the middle-mortality series, the

Census Bureau assumes that life

expectancy at birth will reach 

84.0 years in 2050, while in the

low-mortality series life expectancy

is assumed to reach 86.1 years in

2050 (Hollmann, Mulder, and

Kallen, 2000).

Alternative projections (Figure 3-8),

using assumptions of lower death

rates and higher life expectancies,

have produced even larger estimates of the future population of

the United States aged 85 and over.

Simply assuming that death rates

will continue falling at about the

recent 2 percent rate results in a

projection of 23.5 million aged 85

and over in 2040 (Guralnik,

Yanagishita, and Schneider, 1988).

Even more optimistic forecasts of

future reductions in death rates

have been made from mathematical

simulations of potential reductions

in known risk factors for chronic

disease, morbidity, and mortality.

Manton, Stallard, and Liu (1993)

used such a method to generate an

extreme “upper bound” projection

for the United States of 54 million

people aged 85 and over in 2040.

While such projections are not necessarily the most likely, they do

illustrate the potential impact of

changes in adult mortality on the

future size of the extremely old

population.

U.S. Census Bureau An Aging World: 2001 31

Figure 3-8.

Projections of the United States Population 

Aged 85 and Over

Note: U.S. Census Bureau projections for 2040 do not reflect the results of the 2000 census.

Sources: Guralnik, Yanagishita, and Schneider, 1988; Manton, Stallard, and Liu, 1993; and 

U.S. Census Bureau, 1983, 1992, and 2000b. 

(In millions)

0.9 1.5 2.2 3.1 4.2

14.3

16.8

23.5

53.9

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

1960-2000 Actual

2040 Census Bureau middle mortality

2040 Census Bureau low mortality

2040 Guralnik et al.

2040 Manton et al.

2040
As noted earlier, researchers are

increasingly concerned with overall

patterns of mortality decline in

addition to studying the pace of

decline. One recent study of

mortality in the G71 countries during the second half of the twentieth

century reached a provocative conclusion: mortality at each age has

declined exponentially at a fairly

constant rate in each country

(Tuljapurkar, Li, and Boe, 2000).

The possibility of a “universal pattern” of mortality decline raises

important questions about the relationship between social expenditures on health and their effect on

death rates, and about the likelihood that the mortality decline will

be sustained in the future. 

THE IMPORTANCE OF

CARDIOVASCULAR DISEASE

A major disadvantage of summary

mortality indexes such as life

expectancy is that they mask

changes in mortality by age and/or

cause of death. While one can

examine life expectancy at different

ages, it may be more useful to consider cause-specific changes in mortality, particularly if the intention is

to devise medical or nutritional

interventions to affect overall

longevity and the quality of years

lived at older ages. Worldwide,

data on cause-specific mortality are

far from ideal for policy making in a

majority of countries (See Box 3-1).

Many developed countries, however, have had reasonably good causespecific mortality data since at least

1950.

Death rates due to cardiovascular diseases — a broad category that

includes heart, cerebrovascular

(stroke) and hypertensive diseases —

32 An Aging World: 2001 U.S. Census Bureau

1 The G7 countries include Canada, France,

Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and

the United States.

increase with age but in recent years cardiovascular disease is not just a

these rates have declined at older developed-country phenomenon; a

ages in many developed countries. recent U.S. Institute of Medicine study

Nevertheless, cardiovascular disease (Howson et al., 1998) identifies carremains the primary killer among eld- diovascular disease as the primary

erly populations, more so than for noncommunicable health problem

adults in general. For example, more throughout the developing world.

than two-thirds of all deaths to elderly In the United States, the heart- people in Bulgaria and nearly half of disease component of cardiovascular all deaths to elderly people in

mortality is the leading cause of Argentina are attributed to cardiovas- death within the elderly population. cular disease, and in most countries

Among people aged 65 to 74, heart the proportion increases with age disease and cancers were equally (Figure 3-9). One comprehensive likely to be reported as the major analysis of developed nations

cause of death in 1997, each (Murray and Lopez, 1996) attributes

accounting for about one-third of all nearly 60 percent of all deaths to deaths in that age group. But as age women aged 60 and over in the early advances, heart disease claims an 1990s to cardiovascular disease; the

increasing share, about 49 percent

corresponding figure for older men of deaths to people aged 75 and

was 50 percent. Cancer deaths at

over (versus 18 percent for cancers). older ages usually rank a distant sec- This pattern also occurs in other (but ond, but may be more worrisome in

not all) developed countries. the public eye; in the 1995 Canadian

Women’s Health Test, most women LUNG CANCER RAMPANT

believed breast cancer to be the num- SINCE THE 1950s

ber one killer of women (all ages). Although deaths from cardiovascular Only 16 percent of those surveyed disease are expected to remain most

correctly stated that heart disease is

prominent in the future, a major the number one killer (Wiesenberg,

concern of health practitioners in 1996). The prominence of

Box 3-1.

Data on Causes of Death

Statistics on causes of death are prone to many biases and errors in all

countries. Underreporting of deaths, lack of precise causal information, inaccurate diagnoses, and cultural differences complicate both

national and international studies of mortality. Also, by attributing

death to one specific cause, comorbidities and underlying conditions

such as anemia and nutritional deficiencies are often masked.

Nevertheless, World Health Organization efforts to revise and extend

coverage of the International Classification of Diseases produce ongoing improvements in the quality and comparability of data such as

those referred to in this report. Although mortality data are imperfect,

they can be used to illuminate general patterns and orders of magnitude, and to focus the attention of research, planning, and practice.

While decisionmaking should be skeptical of small differences between

groups, major differences are likely to indicate underlying disparities

and trends.
the industrialized world is the rise in cancer has been declining steadily

lung cancer among older women as since the 1930s, a decline clearly

a result of increased tobacco use attributed to nutritional change, i.e.,

since World War II. With regard to a reduction in salt content of food,

cancers in general, overall age- especially preserved food (Lopez,

standardized death rates for cancer 1990).

rose 30-50 percent among men dur- On the other hand, prevalence of ing the period 1950-85, and fell by lung cancer has increased since about 10 percent among women. World War II, initially among men However, such broad trends often but now increasingly among are the net result of quite different women. Estimates for the early changes in mortality for the leading 1990s (Murray and Lopez, 1996) sites of disease. In the United suggest that lung cancer is States and Western Europe, stomach

responsible for 30 percent of all

cancer deaths to males in developed countries, and 12 percent of

all cancer deaths to females.

Proportions for the 60-and-over

population are virtually identical.

Male death rates from lung cancer

appear to have peaked and are now

falling in some countries and stabilizing in many others, perhaps portending future declines.

Conversely, female death rates from

lung cancer are rising rapidly, in

proportion to the large increases in

cigarette consumption which began

several decades ago (Bonita, 1996).

Cigarette smoking has been labeled

as the single most important preventable cause of premature death

in women aged 35 to 69 in both

the United States and the United

Kingdom (Amos, 1996). Still, breast

cancer remains the principal neoplasm site among females, and

mortality rates from this source

have increased or remained constant in most countries since the

post-war period. The rise has been

most pronounced in Southern and

Eastern Europe, which is consistent

with the hypothesis that a diet high

in saturated fat is a leading risk factor for breast cancer.

SUICIDE RATES MUCH HIGHER

AMONG ELDERLY MEN THAN

WOMEN

Suicide rates in 21 countries with

relatively reliable data (Table 3-2)

are consistently higher among men

than women in all age groups,

including the elderly. This is a universal trend even in societies as disparate as Singapore, the United

States, Israel, and Bulgaria. Suicide

rates generally increase with age

among men, and are highest at

ages 75 and over. Suicide rates for

women also tend to rise with age,

although the peak rate for women

occurs before age 75 in about one

U.S. Census Bureau An Aging World: 2001 33

Figure 3-9.

Percent of All Deaths From Cardiovascular Diseases and 

Malignant Neoplasms at Older Ages in Four Countries

Sources: World Health Organization, various issues of World Health Statistics Annual, and 

www-nt.who.int/whosis/statistics/whsa/whsa_table4.cfm?path=statistics,whsa,whsa_table4&language=english

75 years and over

Female, 65 to 74 years

75 years and over

Male, 65 to 74 years

75 years and over

Female, 65 to 74 years

75 years and over

Male, 65 to 74 years

75 years and over

Female, 65 to 74 years

75 years and over

Male, 65 to 74 years

75 years and over

Female, 65 to 74 years

75 years and over

Male, 65 to 74 years

Cardiovascular diseases 

Malignant neoplasms

Bulgaria, 1998

Argentina, 1996

France, 1996

United States, 1997

66

74

71

79

16

8

15

6

43

47

41

52

28

37

27

42

40

46

36

52

24

17

27

13

42

24

40

15

33

21

35

15
third of the countries in Table 3-2. their elderly male populations, elderly suicide rates in the world’s

The fact that the average woman while Japan, Switzerland, and more developed countries. Few

outlives her spouse — coupled Russia have comparatively high nations have experienced the very

with studies that show that married rates among elderly women. Levels gradual rise seen in France until the

elders are happier than nonmarried for elderly men in the United States mid-1980s, or the downward tenelders — might lead one to predict are average when compared with dency observed in England and

that older women would have other countries, whereas the U.S. Wales (Figure 3-10). More often,

higher rates of suicide than older rate for women aged 65 and over is national rates have fluctuated with

men, but this is clearly not the case. relatively low. Although some of no perceptible pattern. 

these differentials may be artificial Among the 23 countries examined, There was a downward trend in eld- due to differences in the reporting Hungary and Russia had the highest erly suicide in the United States for and/or diagnosis of suicide, their suicide rates for elderly men, and nearly half a century prior to 1980. sheer magnitude suggests that real Hungary and Bulgaria had the high- From 1981 to 1988, however, the international differences do exist est rates for elderly women. The suicide rate of older Americans rose and deserve closer study. reported Hungarian rate for men about 25 percent before beginning

aged 75 and over is five to seven NO CLEAR TIME TREND IN to decline in the 1990s. Such an

times higher than similar rates in ELDERLY SUICIDE WORLDWIDE increase raised questions at a time

Ireland, the United Kingdom, and when older people were living Data from the World Health Norway. Belgium and France have longer and were supposedly healthi- Organization for the past 30 years comparatively high rates among er and more financially secure do not show any clear trend in

34 An Aging World: 2001 U.S. Census Bureau

Table 3-2.

Suicide Rates for Selected Age Groups in 23 Countries:

(Rate per 100,000 population in each age group)

Circa 1997

Country

Male Female

15 to 24

years

45 to 54

years

65 to 74

years

75 years

and over

15 to 24

years

45 to 54 65 to 74

years years

75 years

and over

Europe

Belgium, 1994.....................

Bulgaria, 1998.....................

Denmark, 1996 ....................

Finland, 1996 .....................

France, 1996. .....................

Germany, 1997 ....................

Hungary, 1998 ....................

Ireland, 1996 . . . ...................

Italy, 1995 . . ......................

Netherlands, 1997 .................

Norway, 1995 .....................

Poland, 1996......................

Portugal, 1998 ....................

Russia, 1997 . . ....................

Switzerland, 1996. .................

United Kingdom, 1997. .............

North America

Canada, 1997 .....................

United States, 1997 ................

Other

Australia, 1995 ....................

Chile, 1994 . ......................

Israel, 1996 . . . . . ..................

Japan, 1997 ......................

Singapore, 1997 ...................

23

15

13

34

13

13

18

25

7

11

23

17

4

53

25

10

22

19

23

11

9

11

9

37

27

31

55

38

30

93

19

14

16

24

42

7

100

37

14

27

23

22

14

9

40

18

43

48

35

50

41

32

80

12

23

16

32

31

20

97

47

9

21

26

19

20

18

35

30

98

116

71

48

87

71

131

22

43

34

24

31

39

97

80

17

27

45

27

27

41

53

74

4

6

2

7

4

3

4

5

2

4

6

3

1

9

6

2

5

4

6

2

2

6

9

17

9

17

18

16

10

20

6

5

8

10

8

3

15

16

4

9

7

8

2

4

14

9

17

20

16

14

15

13

24

1

7

9

10

7

7

20

17

4

5

5

5

2

4

19

14

20

50

20

7

20

21

50

2

8

12

5

6

9

33

24

4

4

5

5

1

15

33

33

Sources: World Health Organization, various issues of World Health Statistics Annual, and

www-nt.who.int/whosis/statistics/whsa/whsa_table4.cfm?path=statistics,whsa,whsa_table4&language=english
(Robinson 1990). Likewise in Japan,

a 30-year decline in elderly suicide

appeared to level off in the 1980s,

though more recent data show a

significant decline in the 1990s.

However, social scientists remain

puzzled by the relatively high rates

of suicide among elderly Japanese

women. The unpredictability of suicide trends is perhaps best illustrated by the case of the Netherlands.

Dutch society is widely recognized

as being more tolerant of voluntary

euthanasia than are other Western

societies, and one might think it

would also have higher rates of

recorded suicide. However, the

country’s rates are lower than the

industrialized-country average for

most age groups, including the elderly, and have not changed greatly

during the past 30 years.

U.S. Census Bureau An Aging World: 2001 35

Figure 3-10.

Suicide Rates by Age in England and Wales 

and in France: 1965 to 1995 

Source: World Health Organization, various issues of World Health Statistics Annual.

Rate per 100,000 population in each age group

England and Wales

Rate per 100,000 population in each age group

France

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995

Male 75+

Male 65-74

Female 65-74

Female 75+

Male 75+

Female 75+

Male 65-74

Female 65-74
U.S. Census Bureau An Aging World: 2001 37

CHAPTER 4.

Health and Disability

Many societies worldwide have

experienced a change from conditions of high fertility and high mortality to low fertility and low mortality, a process commonly dubbed the

“demographic transition.” Related

to this trend is the “epidemiologic

transition,” a phrase first used in

the early 1970s (Omran, 1971) to

refer to a long-term change in leading causes of death, from infectious

and acute to chronic and degenerative. In the classic demographic

transition, initial mortality declines

result primarily from the control of

infectious and parasitic diseases at

very young ages. As children survive and grow, they are increasingly

exposed to risk factors associated

with chronic diseases and accidents. As fertility declines and populations begin to age, the preeminent causes of death shift from

those associated with childhood

mortality to those associated with

older age (Kalache, 1996).

Eventually, growing numbers of

adults shift national morbidity profiles toward a greater incidence of

chronic and degenerative diseases

(Frenk et al., 1989).

EPIDEMIOLOGIC TRANSITION

SHIFTS SURVIVAL CURVE

Figure 4-1, which shows survival

curves for U.S. females in 1901 and

1998, illustrates a general pattern

seen in developed countries. The

curve for 1901 represents the early

stages of the epidemiologic transition in which the level of infant

mortality was high, there was considerable mortality through the middle years, and a gradual increase at

the later ages. Female life

expectancy at birth was approxi- DEVELOPING-COUNTRY

mately 50 years, and the median TRANSITION APPEARS

GREATEST IN LATIN AMERICA age at death (the age to which 

50 percent of females subject to Developing countries are in various

the mortality risks of 1901 could stages of epidemiologic transition.

expect to survive) was about Change is most evident in Latin

60 years. By 1998, the survivorship America and the Caribbean, where

curve had shifted dramatically. cardiovascular diseases were the

Female life expectancy had risen to leading cause of death in 29 of 33

79 years, and the median age at countries examined in 1990 (PAHO,

death was above 80 years. The 1994). Most deaths from chronic

proportion surviving is now quite and degenerative ailments occur at

high at all ages up to age 50, and relatively old ages. Comparative

the survival curve at older ages is data from the mid-1990s (Figure 4-2)

approaching a much more rectangu- show that half or more of all deaths

lar shape as a result of relatively in numerous nations of the Western

more chronic-disease mortality at Hemisphere now occur at ages 65

older ages. and over.

Figure 4-1.

Survival Curve for U.S. Females: 1901 and 1998

Note: Data for 1901 refer to White females. 

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, 1936; U.S. Centers for Disease Control, 2001. 

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 908070605040302010 100

1901

Percent surviving

1998

Age
The pace of epidemiologic change

in East and Southeast Asian nations

is now especially rapid. In the case

of Singapore, where life expectancy

at birth rose 30 years in little over a

generation (from 40 years in 1948

to 70 years in the late-1970s), the

share of cardiovascular deaths rose

from 5 to 32 percent of all deaths,

while deaths due to infectious diseases declined from 40 to 12 percent. Data from Taiwan (Table 4-1)

exemplify the typical shift in causes

of death; the infectious and parasitic diseases that dominated

Taiwanese mortality in the mid1950s have given way to chronic

and degenerative diseases. By

1976, cerebrovascular disease and

cancers had become the leading

causes of death. The situation in

the 1996 was similar to that in

1976, except that the relative

importance of diabetes had risen

substantially while tuberculosis was

no longer a major killer. Although

reliable data for much of the

remainder of Asia and for Africa are

lacking, scattered evidence suggests the increasing importance of

chronic disease patterns in adult

populations.

DOES LONGER LIFE EQUAL 

BETTER LIFE?

Chapter 3 pointed out that continual increases in life expectancy, especially at older ages, have been the

norm in most countries worldwide.

As individuals live longer, the quality of that longer life becomes a central issue for both personal and

social well-being. Are we living

healthier as well as longer lives, or

38 An Aging World: 2001 U.S. Census Bureau

1 “Health” is a relative and continually developing concept which “reflects on the one hand

the progress made within the health sciences

and on the other hand the meanings, values

and prejudices related to health in different

sociocultural contexts.” (Heikkinen 1998; see

this source for a useful discussion of the different orientations toward health that have been

adopted in the health sciences).

are we spending an increasing profound impact on national health,

portion of our older years with dis- retirement, and family systems, and

abilities, mental disorders, and in ill particularly on the demand for 

health? In aging societies, the long-term care. In the future, health

answer to this question will have a expectancy will come to be as

Figure 4-2.

Proportion of All Deaths Occurring at Ages 65 and 

Above in 20 Countries: Circa 1995

Source: Pan American Health Organization, 1998.

Nicaragua

Guyana

Venezuela

Colombia

Bahamas

Ecuador

Brazil

Suriname

Mexico

Paraguay

Costa Rica

Trinidad & Tobago

Saint Lucia

Chile

Argentina

Puerto Rico

Cuba

United States

Canada

Barbados

(Percent)

34

75

75

73

67

62

62

61

59

57

56

49

45

45

43

43

42

42

41

37

Table 4-1.

Rank Order of the Ten Leading Causes of Death in Taiwan:

1956, 1976, and 1996

Order 1956 1976 1996

1.......

2.......

3.......

4.......

5.......

6.......

7.......

8.......

9.......

10 . . . . . .

GDEC1

Pneumonia

Tuberculosis

Perinatal conditions

Vascular lesions of CNS2

Heart disease

Malignant neoplasms

Nephritis/nephrosis

Bronchitis

Stomach/duodenum ulcer

Cerebrovascular disease

Malignant neoplasms

Accidents

Heart disease

Pneumonia

Tuberculosis

Cirrhosis of the liver

Bronchitis3

Hypertensive disease

Nephritis/nephrosis ulcer

Malignant neoplasms

Cerebrovascular disease

Accidents

Heart disease

Diabetes mellitus

Cirrhosis/chronic liver disease

Nephritis/nephrosis

Pneumonia

Hypertensive disease

Bronchitis3

1

Includes gastritis, duodenitis, enteritis, and colitis (except diarrhoea of newborns).

2

CNS refers to the central nervous system.

3

Includes emphysema and asthma.

Source: Taiwan Department of Health, 1997.
important a measure as life

expectancy is today.

Research into patterns of change in

mortality, sickness, and disability

has suggested that these three factors do not necessarily evolve in a

similar fashion. A four-country

study (Riley, 1990) notes that in

Japan, the United States, and Britain,

mortality decreased and sickness

(morbidity) increased, while in

Hungary, mortality increased and

sickness decreased.2 Discrepancies

between the trends in mortality,

morbidity, and disability have

U.S. Census Bureau An Aging World: 2001 39

2 The author’s broader review of historical

data concludes that the relationship between

falling sick and dying from sickness has shifted

over time, and that the link between death and

health risks has been unstable rather than stable across time. The risk of being sick has

increased as a result of various obvious and

non-obvious factors — among them earlier and

better detection of sickness, declining mortality,

and rising real income — which themselves

constitute valuable human achievements. The

implication is that protracted sickness is a

byproduct of such achievements.

generated competing theories of

health change, several of which may

be characterized as: a pandemic of

chronic disease and disability

(Gruenberg, 1977; Kramer, 1980); a

compression of morbidity (Fries,

1990); dynamic equilibrium

(Manton, 1982); and the postponement of all morbid events to older

ages (Strehler, 1975). The World

Health Organization has proposed a

general model of health transition

that distinguishes between total survival, disability-free survival, and

survival without disabling chronic

disease. In other words, it is desirable to quantitatively disaggregate

life expectancy into different health

states to better understand the relative health of populations. Thus, a

general survival curve such as that

in Figure 4-1 can be partitioned into

different categories that indicate

overall survival, survival without disability, and survival without disease.

An application of this model to data

from France (Robine, Mormiche, and

Cambois, 1996) shows that the

increase in total survival between

1981 and 1991 was generally consistent with the increase in disabilityfree life expectancy, whereas survival without chronic disease

showed little change (Figure 4-3).

In this case, the differing trajectories of disability and morbidity may

be interpreted as support for the

theory of dynamic equilibrium,

which says that increases in overall

life expectancy are driven in part by

a reduction in the rate of progression of chronic diseases.

HEALTHY LIFE EXPECTANCY

Since the early 1970s, research has

been moving toward the development of health indexes that take

into account not only mortality but

also various gradations of ill health.

As of 1998, 49 nations had estimates of healthy life expectancy,3

an indicator that attempts to integrate into a single index the mortality and morbidity conditions of a

population. Most estimates of

healthy life expectancy are derived

from calculations of disability-free

life expectancy using a methodology pioneered by Sullivan (1971),

which employs cross-sectional

prevalence data but may produce

results that underestimate temporal

trends in a given population.

Recognizing that these earlier computational approaches could not

capture the full dynamic nature of

disability, multistate models have

been developed to incorporate

processes such as recovery and

3 The concept of healthy life expectancy as

typically used refers to expectancy without limitations of function that may be the consequence of one or more chronic disease conditions. The concept is sometimes called “active

life expectancy” or “disability-free life expectancy,” to avoid the implication that “healthy”

means “absence of disease.”

Figure 4-3.

Survival Without Disease and Survival Without 

Disability for French Females: 1981 and 1991

Source: Robine, Mormiche, and Cambois, 1996.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Percent

Total survival in 1981 

Total survival in 1991

Survival without disability in 1981

Survival without disability in 1991

Survival without disease in 1981

Survival without disease in 1991

Age
rehabilitation into the calculations

(see, e.g., Manton and Stallard,

1988; Rogers, Rogers, and Belanger,

1990). These latter models, however, require longitudinal data which

currently are unavailable in most

nations. To date, chronological

series are available only for some

developed nations.

In recent years, researchers have

been working toward developing

integrated, comparable measures

of healthy life expectancy

(Verbrugge, 1997). Presently, however, it remains impossible to

strictly compare estimates among

nations, due both to different computational methods and, more

importantly, to differences in concepts and definitions that define

the basic data. There are important but not-widely-appreciated

distinctions between impairments,

disabilities, and handicaps that can

lead to different measures of

health status (Chamie, 1989).

Because “disability” is defined in

many ways, national estimates of

disability vary enormously. For

example, a compilation by the

United Nations (1990a) showed

national crude disability rates for

the total population ranging from

less than half a percent in several

developing countries (Peru, Egypt,

Pakistan, Sri Lanka) to nearly 

21 percent in Austria. Perhaps the

most commonly-used measurement tools are scales which assess

the ability of individuals to perform activities of daily living

(ADLs) such as eating, toiletting,

and ambulation, as well as instrumental activities of daily living

(IADLs) such as shopping and

using transportation. These measures originated in industrialized

societies where debate has centered on long-term care systems

40 An Aging World: 2001 U.S. Census Bureau

and individuals’ ability to function

in everyday life.4

4 ADL measures vary along several dimensions, including the number of activities considered and the degree of independence in performing physical activities. ADLs do not cover

all aspects of disability, however, and are not

sufficient by themselves to estimate the need

for long-term care. Some older people have

cognitive impairments not measured by ADL

limitations, which may or may not be captured

by IADL measures. And, of course, there are

many questions regarding the validity and

applicability of such measures in different cultural settings.

FEMALE ADVANTAGE IN LIFE

EXPECTANCY PARTIALLY

OFFSET BY DISABILITY

In spite of cross-national comparability problems, several general

observations seem warranted. For

individuals reaching age 65, health

expectancy varies more than

remaining life expectancy. One

examination (Kinsella and Taeuber,

1993) of REVES data (See Box 4-1)

showed that the range of life

expectancy at age 65 varied by

about 12 percent among developed

Box 4-1.

Network on Health Expectancy

To facilitate and promote analyses of health expectancy, an international

network (REVES, the French acronym for Network on Health Expectancy

and Disability Process) was formed in 1989 to bring together researchers

concerned with the measurement of changes and inequalities in health

status, not only within but among nations. REVES has produced numerous documents and bibliographies of relevant materials, including a statistical yearbook that includes existing estimates of health expectancy in

various countries. Further information may be obtained from Jean-Marie

Robine, Network Coordinator, INSERM Equipe Demographie et Sante,

Centre Val d’Aurelle, 34298 Montpellier Cedex 5, France.

Figure 4-4.

Portion of Old Age Lived Without Severe 

Disability: Data From the Early 1990s

Note: Figures refer to the percent of a person's life, after reaching age 65, that she or he might 

expect to live without needing significant help (personal care) with at least one major activity of daily living. 

Source: Jacobzone, 1999. 

United Kingdom

Japan

France

Canada

Australia

(Percent) Male 

Female

93

85

85

94

92

94

79

78

90

87
countries for both men and women. spend a slightly greater proportion

However, the percent of this time of their remaining years in a severespent in “good health” (free of prob- ly disabled state relative to elderly

lems with personal and instrumen- men, thus negating some of the

tal activities of daily living) had a potential benefit of their higher life

much wider range, from 45 to more expectancy (Figure 4-4). Other

than 80 for males, and from 37 to studies of gender differences in the

76 for females (these figures incidence of disabling conditions at

exclude apparent outlier estimates older ages support this contention

which would widen the ranges even (Heikkinen, Jokela, and Jylha, 1996;

further). For men in developing Dunlop, Hughes, and Manheim,

countries, the estimated range of 1997; Robine and Romieu, 1998). 

remaining life expectancy at age 65

was 12 to 15 years. However, the DEVELOPED-COUNTRY

DISABILITY RATES AT OLDER estimated percent of remaining AGE SEEN TO BE DECLINING years spent in relative health varied

from less than 60 to 88 percent. In nations where time series estiFor elderly women, the variation in mates of health expectancy are

life expectancy was 28 percent, available (e.g., Canada, the United

while the range of healthy remain- States, Australia, England/Wales),

ing life was 50 to 87 percent. the general view in the 1980s was

one of uncertainty regarding the

Available but geographically limited relationship between rising life

data from the early 1990s suggest a expectancies and trends in health

further tentative statement: women expectancies. One comprehensive

reaching age 65 can expect to review of data in the United States

(Freedman and Soldo, 1994) found

declines in less-severe disability

(i.e., in IADLs) during the 1980s.

Data from Australia, on the other

hand, revealed that the increase in

years of disability between 1981

and 1988 was greater than the

overall increase in life expectancy.

Data for Canada and Finland suggest that changes in disability-free

life expectancy have been and

remain stagnant (Robine and

Romieu, 1998). Researchers posited

a number of potential factors —

other than actual increases in

chronic disease incidence and measurement error — which might have

contributed to stagnation or

declines in healthy life expectancy,

including increased survival of

chronically ill individuals due to

improvements in medical care, earlier diagnosis or treatment of chronic

diseases, greater social awareness

of disease and disability, earlier

adjustment to chronic conditions

due to improved pension and health

care/delivery systems, and rising

expectations of what constitutes

good health or normal functioning

(Mathers, 1991; Verbrugge, 1989).

More recent data and rigorous

analyses, however, now strongly

suggest that rates of disability in a

number of developed countries are

declining. In the United States,

researchers (Manton, Corder, and

Stallard, 1997) used data from the

1982, 1984, 1989 and 1994

rounds of the U.S. National Long

Term Care Survey to demonstrate

that the disability rate among people aged 65 and over declined over

the 12-year period, such that there

were 1.2 million fewer disabled

older people in 1994 than would

have been the case if the 1982

rate had not changed (Figure 4-5).

Five other U.S. surveys, while varying in content and nature 

U.S. Census Bureau An Aging World: 2001 41

Figure 4-5.

Number of Chronically Disabled People Aged 65 

and Over in the United States: 1982 to 1996

Source: Manton, Corder, and Stallard, 1997.

0

2

4

6

8

10

1982 1989 1994 1996

Millions

Based on declines in chronic disability

rate occurring since 1982

If disability rate did not change

since 1982
(e.g., both longitudinal and crosssectional), have yielded findings

that support a temporal decline.

Likewise, a U.S. study of changes

between 1982 and 1993 in selfreported ability to work found significant improvement among both

men and women who were in their

sixties (Crimmins, Reynolds, and

Saito, 1999). Another U.S. study

(Freedman and Martin, 1998) of

the effect of changes in living environments, device use, and survey

design on functional ability among

noninstitutionalized people aged

50 and over concludes that these

changes alone could not account

completely for improved functioning, and that there has indeed

been some improvement in underlying physiological capability.

Increased levels of education have

been identified as a potentially

powerful factor influencing disability decline in the United States.

A review of trend data from nine

other developed countries plus

Taiwan concludes that, with a few

exceptions by gender, disability is

declining among the elderly elsewhere as well (Waidmann and

Manton, 1998), as indicated by the

French data in Figure 4-3.

Researchers increasingly have disaggregated disability into moresevere versus less-severe categories, and the current consensus

in developed countries is that the

overall decline in disability is primarily the result of decreases in the

more-severe forms (Robine and

Romieu, 1998). Freedman, Aykan,

and Martin (2001), for example,

have recently demonstrated a

decline between 1993 and 1998 in

severe cognitive impairment among

the noninstitutionalized population

aged 80 and over in the United

States. Such trends, if sustained,

obviously have substantial implications for public and private health

programs and expenditures, and

possibly for the conceptualization

and definition of disability itself.5

Many countries with aging populations now recognize the need for

longitudinal surveys as a means of

understanding adult health patterns, transitions to and from different health statuses, and how to differentiate between morbidity and

aging per se (Svanborg, 1996).

While such survey efforts involve

substantial economic investment,

the potential cost savings in policy

design and implementation would

seem to dwarf the initial expense.

And as various national longitudinal

analyses expand, both geographically and in terms of specific disabling conditions, all health systems stand to benefit from more

comprehensive comparisons and

the resultant implications for program priorities.

DEVELOPING-COUNTRY

DISABILITY BURDEN LIKELY TO

INCREASE AS POPULATIONS

AGE

Two decades ago, the World Health

Organization noted a distinction in

prominent causes of disability

between developed and developing

countries. In the latter, disability

was said to stem primarily from

malnutrition, communicable diseases, accidents, and congenital

conditions. In industrialized countries disability resulted largely

from the chronic diseases discussed earlier — cardiovascular

disease, arthritis, mental illness,

and metabolic disorders, as well as

42 An Aging World: 2001 U.S. Census Bureau

5 For a description of changes and paradigm

shifts in disability policy in certain developed

countries, see Kalisch, Aman, and Buchele,

1998.

accidents and the consequences of

drug and alcohol abuse. As

economies in developing countries

expand and the demographic and

epidemiologic pictures change, we

might expect to see related

changes in the nature and prevalence of various disabilities.

Numbers of disabled people are

almost certain to increase as a correlate of sheer population growth.

Figure 4-6 illustrates the application of empirical gross disability

rates to the projected population

of the Philippines. This simplistic

example assumes that disability

rates for men and women as measured in 1980 will remain constant

in the future. Even with no provision for higher rates of disability

as the population ages, the projected absolute increases are alarming

in terms of future service and care

requirements.

ESTIMATING THE BURDEN 

OF DISEASE

A major ongoing effort to understand and predict the effect of epidemiologic change is the Global

Burden of Disease Project undertaken jointly by the World Health

Organization, Harvard University,

and the World Bank. Using a computational (and controversial; see,

e.g., Black and McLarty, 1996;

Cohen, 2000) concept known as

Disability-Adjusted Life Years

(DALYs), this study attempts to

measure global, regional, and

country-specific disease burdens in

a baseline year, and to project such

burdens into the future. Figure 4-7

highlights the change in the estimated (1990) and projected (2020)

rank order of disease burden for

the ten leading disease categories

on a global basis. In addition to

underscoring the expected shift
from communicable to noncommunicable disease patterns

(largely driven by the changing situation in developing countries;

Murray and Lopez, 1997), this

study raises specific warning flags

for many countries in terms of a

likely increase in disease burden

due to neuro-psychiatric conditions

and accidents. Among the many

results, several stand out: (1) the

projected prominence of tobacco

use vis-a-vis mortality (as mentioned in Chapter 3) and through

various disease vectors, with the

expectation that tobacco will kill

more people than any single disease by 2020; (2) the concentration of disease burden in certain

developing regions. For example,

the inhabitants of India and SubSaharan Africa were estimated to

bear more than 40 percent of the

world’s disease burden in 1990,

while constituting only one-fourth

of the world’s population. The

study also points out the fallacy

that noncommunicable diseases

are necessarily related to affluence;

the likelihood of dying from a noncommunicable disease among

adults under age 70 in both India

and Sub-Saharan Africa is greater

than in Western Europe; and (3) the

vastly underestimated importance

of mental illnesses as major and

increasing sources of disease burden, which implies significant

long-term care challenges in aging

societies (Murray and Lopez,

1996).

U.S. Census Bureau An Aging World: 2001 43

Figure 4-6.

Projected Numbers of Disabled Males in the 

Philippines by Age: 1991 and 2020

Sources: United Nations, 1990 and U.S. Census Bureau, 2000a. 

Thousands

1991 

2020

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

0-4 5-14 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75+

Figure 4-7.

Change in Rank Order of Disease Burden for Top Ten 

Leading Causes in the World: 1990 and 2020

Source: Murray and Lopez, 1996.

(Disease burden measured in disability-adjusted life years)

1990 2020

Rank Disease or injury Disease or injury

1 Lower respiratory infections Ischemic heart disease

2 Diarrhoeal diseases Unipolar major depression

3 Conditions arising during Road traffic accidents

 the perinatal period

4 Unipolar major depression Cerebrovascular disease

5 Ischemic heart disease Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

6 Cerebrovascular disease Lower respiratory infections

7 Tuberculosis Tuberculosis

8 Measles War

9 Road traffic accidents Diarrhoeal diseases

10 Congenital anomalies HIV
44 An Aging World: 2001 U.S. Census Bureau

Figure 4-8.

Share of Population Versus Health Expenditure

by Age in Nine Countries: 1993

Source: OECD, 1997.

75+

65+

<65

75+

65+

<65

75+

65+

<65

75+

65+

<65

75+

65+

<65

Australia

Finland

Germany

New Zealand

Portugal 

88

12

4

86

14

6

85

15

6

89

11

5

86

14

5

66

34

20

62

38

22

68

32

16

67

33

21

64

36

19

Population 

Health expenditure

Percent of total

75+

65+

<65

75+

65+

<65

75+

65+

<65

75+

65+

<65

Sweden

Switzerland 

United Kingdom (England) 

United States

21

82

18

8

86

14

6

84

16

7

87

13

5

62

38

21

60

40

26

58

42

27

63

37
AGING INCREASES HEALTH is included in public health schemes

CARE COSTS (e.g., Germany), per capita expenditures for people aged 65 and over Population aging might be expected

may be two to three times higher to increase costs of health care in

most societies because health than those for younger people; in

countries with more inclusive long- expenditures by and for older age

term care coverage (e.g., Australia groups tend to be proportionally

and Finland), the ratio is four times greater than their population share

higher (OECD, 1997). (Figure 4-8). This expectation

applies especially to nations where Although the picture of rising health

acute care and institutional (long- care costs with age is accurate in a

term care) services are widely avail- general sense, disaggregation of

able. Cross-national comparative data by age shows some surprising

data on health care expenditures by facets. A large fraction of health

age are relatively uncommon, but care costs associated with advancongoing work by the Organization ing age is incurred in the period

for Economic Co-Operation and just prior to death, and since an

Development has begun to docu- increasing proportion of people are

ment age-specific differentials. living to very old age, overall health

Table 4-2 shows that per capita care costs rise with age.

health expenditures for people aged Treatments to prolong life have

65 and over are uniformly higher made once-certain death much less

than for the nonelderly, and that certain, but there is some indication

this difference varies by country. that health care costs taper off at

Much of the between-country differ- very old ages (OECD, 1998b), sugence may be attributed to variations gesting that life may be prolonged

in program coverage. In nations up to a point but that treatment is

where relatively little long-term care not desired indefinitely. Likewise,

among noninstitutionalized elderly,

per capita health expenditure often

peaks at ages 75 to 79 and declines

thereafter. Costs per service (such

as hospital stays and medicine prescriptions) for older people are less

than for the population as a whole,

although usage rates for older people are much higher and hence the

per capita costs are higher (OECD,

1997). Governments and international organizations are now recognizing the need for cost-of-illness

studies on age-related diseases, in

part to anticipate the likely burden

of increasingly-prevalent and expensive chronic conditions (of which

Alzheimer’s disease may be the

most costly), and in part to understand the potentially salubrious

effects that may accrue to future

generations due to higher levels of

education and access to information

about healthier lifestyle behaviors.

EARLY-LIFE CONDITIONS

AFFECT ADULT HEALTH

The last decade has seen a rapidly

growing interest in examining adult

health outcomes from a life-course

perspective. Researchers increasingly suggest that many negative

health conditions in adulthood stem

from risks established early in life

(Elo and Preston, 1992). Some

(notably, Barker, 1995) argue that

adult health has a fetal origin,

wherein nourishment in utero and

during infancy has a direct bearing

on the development of risk factors

for adulthood diseases (especially

cardiovascular diseases). Childhood

infections may have long-term

effects on adult mortality. A World

Health Organization report states

unequivocally that slow growth and

lack of emotional support in prenatal life and early childhood reduce

physical, cognitive, and emotional

functioning in later years (Wilkinson

and Marmot, 1998), as do certain

U.S. Census Bureau An Aging World: 2001 45

Table 4-2.

Relative Per Capita Health Expenditure by Age Group in 12

Countries: Circa 1993

(0-64 = 1.0)

Country 65-74 65+ 75+

Australia . . ................

Finland....................

France ....................

Germany . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Japan .....................

Netherlands . . . . . . .........

New Zealand ..............

Portugal. ..................

Sweden ...................

Switzerland ................

United Kingdom (England). . .

United States . .............

2.8

2.8

1

2.2

2.3

4

3.1

(NA)

2.3

1.4

2.3

2.6

2.5

3.1

4.0

4.0

2

3.0

2.7

4.8

4.4

3.9

1.7

2.8

4.0

3.9

4.2

6.0

5.5

3

3.7

3.2

3

5.7

(NA)

6.2

2.1

3.4

5.7

5.6

5.2

NA Not available.

1

Refers to ages 60-69.

2

Refers to ages 60+.

3

Refers to ages 70+.

4

Refers to ages 65-69.

Note: Data are relative to the le

is set at 1.0.

Source: OECD, 1997.

vel of per capita spending for people aged 0-64, which
parental behaviors (particularly

smoking and alcohol consumption)

and socioeconomic circumstances

(e.g., poverty). Parental divorce has

been linked to decreased longevity

of children (Schwartz et al., 1995).

While it seems intuitive that childhood conditions should affect adult

development and health outcomes,

separating cohort effects from period effects (e.g., from changing living conditions) is empirically difficult. Indeed, some evidence

suggests that current conditions

may be more important than earlylife conditions; Kannisto (1996) has

found period effects to be much

more significant than cohort effects

on oldest-old mortality (i.e., after

age 80). And in a study of cohorts

born just before, during, and just

after a severe famine in Finland in

the mid-1860s, the researchers

found no major differences in laterlife survival; the extreme nutritional

deprivation in utero and during

infancy appeared not to translate

into higher adult mortality risks

(Kannisto, Christensen, and Vaupel,

1997). Such findings are likely to

stimulate considerable future

research to explore the linkages

between lingering effects of earlylife and survival at advanced ages

(Vaupel, 1997).

SOCIOECONOMIC CORRELATES

OF MORTALITY AND HEALTH

If early-life factors affect future

health and survival, then socioeconomic differences in childhood and

throughout life are likely to play an

intrinsic role. A diverse and longstanding literature from the 

industrialized world6 has identified

a number of socioeconomic factors

that affect health and longevity:

people with higher education tend

to live longer (Kitigawa and Hauser,

1973); being married encourages

healthier behaviors in U.S. adults,

including people in old age (relative

to other marital statuses), and the

effects may be greater for older

men than for older women (Schone

and Weinick, 1998); there are clear

gradients in the United Kingdom in

both mortality and health when broken down by social class, i.e., higher social/occupational class is related to better health and lowered

mortality risks (Devis, 1993;

Wilkinson and Marmot, 1998); and

among the oldest old in Sweden,

former white-collar workers had

better physical functioning than former blue-collar workers (Parker,

Thorslund, and Lundberg, 1994). In

the United States (Crimmins,

Hayward, and Saito, 1996) and in

several European countries (Robine

and Romieu, 1998), socioeconomic

conditions more strongly affect

functional change than mortality,

which means that socioeconomic

differences in active or healthy life

expectancy are greater than those

in total life expectancy. Such findings might be expected to have

implications for the future health

status of elderly populations. For

46 An Aging World: 2001 U.S. Census Bureau

6 Research on socioeconomic correlates of

mortality and health in developing countries is

still sparse. Wu and Rudkin (2000) found that

lower socioeconomic status was associated

with poorer health among Malaysians aged 50

and over, and that this association held for all

three major ethnic groups (Malay, Chinese, and

Indian). Liang et al. (2000) have found evidence of a socioeconomic gradient in old-age

mortality in China, but they note that there are

major differences between developed and

developing countries in terms of major health

parameters, and that much more work needs to

be done in validating gradients in Third World

settings. 

example, if marriage equates with

better health among older

individuals, do rising rates of

divorce and increased proportions

of never-married individuals portend poorer average health? And

what of other life dimensions? A

considerable amount of current

research is focused on not only

social but also psychological and

biological pathways by which

socioeconomic status affects health

(see, e.g., Adler et al., 1999).

While the weight of existing studies

clearly supports a strong relationship between social and economic

factors on the one hand and health

and mortality outcomes on the

other, this relationship may not be

as strictly predictive as some have

suggested. Research on marital status and health among the elderly in

the United States, for instance, has

shown that while widowhood is in

fact associated with poorer health,

single women are likely to have better health outcomes than married

women (Goldman, Korenman, and

Weinstein, 1994). One Japanese

study (Sugisawa, Liang, and Liu,

1994) found no significant effect of

marital status on the risk of dying;

however, higher levels of social participation of older people were

strongly linked to lowered mortality

risks. Research in Florence, Italy

and Tampere, Finland uncovered no

systematic association between

functional ability levels and education/previous occupation

(Heikkinen, Jokela, and Jylha, 1996).

In a study of nine industrialized

nations, differences in mortality by

educational level were found to be

fairly small in the Netherlands and

three Scandinavian nations, but
much more substantial in larger higher mortality in Northern results point to the importance of

countries such as the United States, European countries, but no such understanding population diversity

France, and Italy. The authors sug- relationship in France, Switzerland, within countries, and suggest that

gest that between-country differ- and Mediterranean nations (Kunst et policy planners pay particular attenences may be related to different al., 1999). Another multicountry tion to socioeconomic differences

social and economic policies. A study of income and mortality by gender and among subgroups

12-country study of occupational implies that the effect of income on when developing intervention

class and ischemic heart disease mortality is largely determined by strategies (see Sacker et al., 2001

mortality found the expected rela- the distribution of income within a and National Research Council,

tionship between lower class and given nation (Duleep, 1995). Such 2001 for further discussion).

U.S. Census Bureau An Aging World: 2001 47
U.S. Census Bureau An Aging World: 2001 49

CHAPTER 5.

Urban and Rural Dimensions

Urbanization is one of the most economic and political changes. both sending and receiving areas.

significant population trends of the Closed national economies and Definitions of urban and rural resilast 50 years. Though we may trading blocs have given way to dence often differ greatly from one

think of cities as synonymous with open economies that increasingly country to the next, which complihistorical development, not until the are international in scope. In gener- cates global and regional discusnineteenth century did substantial al, the most rapidly-growing sions of urbanization. The view of

portions of national populations live economies since 1950 also are the United Nations has been that

and work in large cities, and only in those with the most rapid increase “differences in definition may reflect

certain parts of the world. In 1900, in their levels of urbanization. The differences in the characteristic feaabout 14 percent of the world’s world’s largest cities tend to be con- tures of urban and rural settlements

population lived in cities (United centrated in the world’s largest considered most relevant in individNations, 1991), and this percentage economies (United Nations Centre ual countries” (United Nations,

was still below 20 by 1950. for Human Settlements, 1996). 1973). In spite of definitional inconHowever, the global population of Urbanization is linked to changes in sistencies, the basic questions conall ages living in urban areas (as the socioeconomic profile of a cerning aging are similar in all socidefined by each country) more than workforce as workers shift from eties: are the elderly increasingly

doubled between 1950 and 1975, predominantly agricultural pursuits concentrated in particular areas? If

and increased another 55 percent to industrial employment and then so, what are the implications for

from 1975 to 1990. By 1995, to services. Clark and Anker (1990) social support and delivery of servabout 46 percent (2.6 billion) of the have shown that urbanization is ices? For individual cities, do

earth’s people lived in urban areas related to decreased participation of changes in age structure bring

(United Nations, 1998). Soon after older people in the labor force. In about demands to reorder budget

the year 2000, the world likely will developed countries, this decrease priorities?

have more urban dwellers than accompanies a decline in manufacrural dwellers. About three-fourths turing employment, an increased DEVELOPED-COUNTRY

ELDERLY ABOUT THREE- of the population in developed prevalence of early retirement FOURTHS URBAN; ONE-THIRD countries is urban, compared with schemes, and lower levels of educa- IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

slightly more than one-third in tion and job flexibility among older

In keeping with the worldwide pat- developing countries as a whole. workers relative to younger worktern of increased urbanization, the However, the pace of urbanization ers. In urban areas of developing

elderly population has become is much faster in the developing nations, the increased importance

more concentrated in urban areas world. And while the urban growth of the formal sector tends to

during the past 50 years. In devel- rate in most world regions has exclude older workers who find it

oped countries as a whole, an esti- begun to decline, some parts of the difficult to compete with bettermated 73 percent of people aged globe (notably Africa and South educated younger workers. With

65 and over lived in urban areas in Asia) are now experiencing peak urbanization come changes in the

1990, and this figure is projected to rates of urban growth. In spite of family unit and kinship networks

reach 80 percent by the year 2015. declining growth rates, the world’s that have both beneficial and

In developing nations, which still urban population is projected to adverse consequences for the wellare predominantly rural, just over virtually double between 1995 and being of elderly members.

one-third (34 percent) of people 2030, reaching a projected level of Urban growth affects all age groups aged 65 and over were estimated to 5.1 billion people (United Nations, of a population. Since urbanization live in urban areas in 1990. This 1998). often is driven by youthful migra- proportion is expected to exceed

Twentieth-century trends in urban- tion from rural areas to cities, it one-half by the year 2015 (United

ization have stemmed from broad influences the age distribution in Nations, 1991).
The elderly of Africa are more likely

to live in rural areas than are the

elderly of other regions, even

though the African population overall is slightly more urbanized than

that of the Asia/Oceania region

(excluding Japan). The aggregate

trend toward urbanization is

stronger in Asia than in Africa, however. Half of the Asia/Oceania elderly are projected to live in cities by

2015, compared with 42 percent 

in Africa.

As a region, Latin America and the

Caribbean is already highly urbanized. The proportion of elderly in

urban locales is very similar to that

of the developed-country average.

Unlike in other developing areas,

the elderly in Latin America and the

Caribbean have been somewhat

more likely than the general population to live in cities (Heligman,

Chen, and Babakol, 1993).

ELDERLY MORE LIKELY THAN

NONELDERLY TO LIVE IN 

RURAL AREAS

Despite the increasingly urban

nature of today’s elderly populations, rural areas remain disproportionately elderly in a majority of

countries. In most nations, this is

primarily the result of the migration

of young adults to urban areas, and

to some extent of return migration

of older adults from urban areas

back to rural homes. Data for 39

countries from the period 1989 to

1997 show that the percent of all

elderly living in rural areas was

higher than the percent of total

population in rural areas in 27 of

the 39 nations, with no difference

in 4 nations (Figure 5-1). Five of

the eight countries where the elderly were less likely than the total

population to live in rural areas are

predominantly-Muslim nations that

were formerly part of the Soviet

Union. Differences in the share of

50 An Aging World: 2001 U.S. Census Bureau

Figure 5-1.

Percent of Total and Elderly Population 

Living in Rural Areas in 39 Countries

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000a. 

 United States, 1990

 New Zealand, 1991

 Ecuador, 1990

 Chile, 1997

 Brazil, 1991

 Bolivia, 1992

 Uzbekistan, 1989

 Ukraine, 1995

 Tajikistan, 1993

 Russia, 1995

 Moldova, 1989

 Lithuania, 1996

 Latvia, 1996

 Krygyzstan, 1997

 Kazakhstan, 1996

 Georgia, 1993

 Estonia, 1996

 Belarus, 1997

 Azerbaijan, 1989

 Armenia, 1992

 Sweden, 1990

 Norway, 1990

 Greece, 1991

 France, 1990

 Austria, 1991

 Turkey, 1990

 Thailand, 1990

South Korea, 1995

 Philippines, 1990

 Malaysia, 1991

 Japan, 1995

 Indonesia, 1990

 China, 1990

 Bangladesh, 1991

 Zimbabwe, 1992

 Zambia, 1990

 Tunisia, 1994

 South Africa, 1991

 Botswana, 1991

Total 

Aged 65+

Africa

Asia

Europe

Former Soviet Union

Latin America/Other

54

43

39

61

69

70

37

42

85

86

80

74

69

22

49

51

22

81

41

85

76

74

28

54

54

43

84

51

35

26

41

28

17

31

31

49

32

17

32

46

31

30

44

45

66

31

32

53

27

71

32

59

32

45

53

31

51

42

60

33

44

65

32

64

44

52

43

24

15

45

15

25

59

24

17

49

10

25
total versus elderly population

residing in rural areas are most

striking in Belarus, Bolivia,

Botswana, Zambia, and Zimbabwe.

SEX RATIOS OF URBAN

ELDERLY TYPICALLY LESS

THAN 80

An examination of national data for

54 countries from the period 1986

to 1997 shows that more elderly

women than elderly men have been

recorded in urban areas in all

except eight nations, six of which

are in Africa. Sex ratios (number of

men per 100 women) for the urban

elderly usually are well below 100

(Figure 5-2), and are below 50 in

parts of the former Soviet Union. 

ELDERLY MEN MORE LIKELY

THAN ELDERLY WOMEN TO

RESIDE IN RURAL AREAS

Since women live longer than men

virtually everywhere, we might

expect to see sex ratios of less than

100 for the elderly throughout a

given population. Although older

women outnumber older men in

almost every nation, the ratio of

older men to older women generally is higher in rural areas than in

cities. In the rural areas of some

countries — e.g., New Zealand,

Paraguay, and Sweden — older men

actually outnumber older women.

This rural male surplus is seen most

prominently in many countries of

Latin America and the Caribbean,

which suggests region-specific patterns of gender-specific migration

that have implications for health

and social security systems in both

rural and urban areas.

U.S. Census Bureau An Aging World: 2001 51

Figure 5-2.

Urban Sex Ratios for Persons Aged 65 

and Over: 1986 or Later

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000a.

Uruguay, 1990

United States, 1990

Peru, 1993

New Zealand, 1991

Mexico, 1995

Ecuador, 1990

Costa Rica, 1995

Colombia, 1993

Chile, 1997

Canada, 1991

Brazil, 1991

Bolivia, 1992

Australia, 1986

Argentina, 1995

Ukraine, 1995

Russia, 1995

Moldova, 1989

Lithuania, 1996

Latvia, 1996

Georgia, 1993

Estonia, 1996

Belarus, 1997

Armenia, 1992

Sweden, 1990

Poland, 1994

Norway, 1990

Hungary, 1995

Greece, 1991

France, 1990

Czech Republic, 1994

Bulgaria, 1994

Austria, 1991

Turkey, 1990

Thailand, 1990

South Korea, 1995

Singapore, 1990

Philippines, 1990

Pakistan, 1990

Malaysia, 1991

Japan, 1995

Israel, 1994

Indonesia, 1990

China, 1990

Bangladesh, 1991

Zimbabwe, 1992

Zambia, 1990

Tunisia, 1994

Tanzania, 1988

South Africa, 1991

Malawi, 1987

Kenya, 1989

Egypt, 1986

Cote d'Ivoire, 1988

Botswana, 1991

(Males per 100 females)

Africa

Asia

Europe

Former Soviet Union

Latin America/Caribbean/Other

67

69

106

123

106

109

79

89

99

134

108

137

86

82

76

70

80

113

77

81

55

75

77

51

77

61

62

73

59

66

57

69

66

49

48

54

46

52

54

44

50

67

70

77

76

67

64

80

77

82

81

70

87

64
Conversely, elderly women tend to

be somewhat more likely than elderly men to live in urban areas

(Figure 5-3).1 The gender difference

in residential concentration probably is related to marital status and

health. As discussed in Chapter 6,

elderly women are much more likely than elderly men to be widowed,

and also are more likely to have

chronic illnesses. One study of the

elderly in developed countries

(Kinsella and Taeuber, 1993) noted

an inverse relationship between

widowhood rates and sex ratios in

urban areas. Urban residence may

provide elderly women, especially

widows, the benefits of closer proximity to children and/or to social

and health services.

SUBNATIONAL URBAN/RURAL

DIFFERENCES IN AGE

STRUCTURE MAY BE STRIKING

The profile of aging in subnational

areas may be very different when

examined in view of urban/rural differences. In Russia’s 73 oblasts

(administrative areas), for example,

the rural population of many

oblasts is skewed in favor of older

people.2 Figure 5-4 displays the age

and sex distribution of urban versus rural populations in the Kursk

Oblast, located in the Central

Chernozem Region bordering

Ukraine. The pyramid for the rural

population has a particularly odd

shape, with people aged 65 and

older accounting for nearly onefourth of the total population. In

contrast, the urban population of

Kursk is 12 percent elderly, about

52 An Aging World: 2001 U.S. Census Bureau

1 Grewe and Becker (2000), in a preliminary

examination of within-country migration rates

for 65 countries with 128 observations from

the period 1952-1996, also have noted a likely

trend toward disproportionate shares of elderly

women in urban areas, and of elderly men in

rural areas. 2 Although Russia is highly urbanized (over

70 percent of the population lives in urban

areas), its rural population remains substantial,

numbering approximately 40 million in 1996.

the same as the overall national population. One reason that rural

average. The majority of Kursk’s areas have such high proportions in

urban population is concentrated in older age groups is out-migration of

the working ages, which is not true younger people to urban areas in

in the rural areas. These pyramids search of work. Out-migration of

also show disparities in sex compo- young people may leave older

sition. Nearly 31 percent of Kursk’s women and men without the direct

rural females are aged 65 and older, support of their family. Harsh living

compared with just 15 percent of conditions and lack of amenities in

rural males. The sex ratio for the many rural areas pose additional

rural elderly population is 41 men difficulties for the elderly. In 1996,

per 100 women. for instance, official statistics indicate that only 23 percent of Russia’s Kursk is not the only Russian oblast rural population had running water

to have a large proportion of its in their homes, and only 3 percent rural population, particularly had indoor toilet facilities. 

women, in older age groups. In

several other oblasts, more than Skewed age structures may present

one-fourth of the rural female popu- problems for certain localities in

lation is aged 65 or over. In seven terms of the provision of services

oblasts, elderly women account for and aid to older people. Skeldon

30 percent of the entire rural female (1999) has noted, based on the

Figure 5-3.

Percent of All Elderly Living in Urban Areas 

by Sex in Ten Countries

13 Zimbabwe, 1992

Tunisia, 1994

South Korea, 1995

Colombia, 1993

China, 1990

United States, 1990

Russia, 1995

Poland, 1994

New Zealand, 1991

France, 1990

Developed countries

Developing countries

Male

Female

68

87

54

69

73

24

67

55

56

16

72

92

57

67

77

24

75

59

61

Source: United Nations Demographic Yearbook, 1996. 
experiences of Japan and Korea, the important emerging issues will residents. In countries where the

confluence of overall population revolve around the social conditions youthful influx of rural-to-urban

aging with rural depopulation and of elderly individuals in relatively migrants has slowed in recent

stagnation of small and medium- isolated rural areas. decades, many cities may now have

sized towns, and suggests that this aging populations (Chesnais, 1991).

pattern will be seen increasingly NO CLEAR TREND TOWARD Conversely, in countries where DISPROPORTIONATE AGING OF throughout Asia in the first half of urbanization rates remain high and LARGE CITIES this century. A similar situation has younger residents continue to gravibeen noted by Golini (2000) with Although rural areas tend to be dis- tate toward cities, one would

regard to Italy. While there are few proportionately elderly compared expect the proportion of elderly in

if any negative national economic with urban areas in general, data cities to be lower than for the counconsequences associated with this for some large cities reveal a rela- try as a whole. Data for 13 major

development, it seems clear that tively high proportion of elderly cities (Table 5-1), however, do not

U.S. Census Bureau An Aging World: 2001 53

Figure 5-4.

Urban and Rural Population in Kursk Oblast: 1996

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000a. 

Urban

Thousands

40 30 20 10

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85+

0 10 20 30 40

Rural

40 30 20 10

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85+

0 10 20 30 40

Male Female

Age
lend themselves to a clear interpretation of trends. The populations of

Budapest, London, and Moscow are

in fact older than their respective

national averages, but this is not

the case in Berlin, Paris, and Tokyo.

Bangkok and Harare are younger

than Thailand and Zimbabwe as a

whole, but a similar relationship

does not hold in the Chinese cities

of Beijing and Shanghai, nor in

Mexico City. In the United States in

general, census data from 1960

through 1990 indicate that the central cities of metropolitan areas

have, on balance, consistently lost

elderly migrants to nonmetropolitan

areas (Fuguitt and Beale, 1993). 

ARE RURAL ELDERLY

DISADVANTAGED?

The exodus of younger people from

the countryside to cities raises the

rural proportion of elderly residents

in many countries. As a result, traditional family support systems for

the frail elderly may change.

Younger family members living in

urban areas are unlikely to provide

direct care for distant elders remaining in rural areas. At the same

time, younger family members who

move to cities may have improved

financial resources that can be used

to help elderly relatives still living in

the rural birthplace.

Quality-of-life issues for older populations in rural versus urban areas

are beginning to receive additional

attention as migration streams

increase and the costs of health

care and public benefits escalate.

Whereas graying rural communities

were once associated with negative

socioeconomic consequences, more

recent research in developed countries has considered positive results

that may stem from increased proportions of increasingly affluent elderly (Bean et al., 1994). Data from

Wales (Wenger, 1998) suggest that MIGRATION PATTERNS OF

rural dwellers are more likely than OLDER PEOPLE NOT WELL

DOCUMENTED their urban counterparts to be

involved in community and volun- International migration of elderly

tary activities. Nevertheless, the people, as noted in Chapter 2, is

provision of health and other sup- not a significant demographic factor

portive services to ill and disabled in many countries. Within-country

older people in rural areas contin- migration, however, may be subues to present special challenges. stantial. One common perception

Perhaps because of these difficul- of older people is that they tend to

ties, the percentage of older dis- be much less mobile than younger

abled people remaining in the people, typically “aging in place” in

community without being institu- communities that have been home

tionalized is lower in predominantly for many years. While this may be

rural areas than in urban areas true in a general sense, various

(Suzman, Kinsella, and Myers, national studies suggest that geo1992). graphical mobility among older

54 An Aging World: 2001 U.S. Census Bureau

Table 5-1.

Percent of Older Population in 13 Cities Compared With

Respective National Average

City Year

Age

group

City

percent

Country

percent

Bangkok,

Thailand. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Beijing,

China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Berlin,

Germany . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Budapest,

Hungary. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Buenos Aires,

Argentina. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Harare,

Zimbabwe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Greater London,

United Kingdom . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Mexico City,

Mexico . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Moscow,

Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

New York,

United States . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Paris,

France . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Shanghai,

China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Tokyo,

Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

1995

1990

1993

1990

1991

1992

1991

1995

1989

1990

1990

1990

1990

65+

65+

65+

60+

65+

65+

65+

65+

65+

65+

60+

65+

65+

4.2

6.2

13.7

21.5

8.2

1.6

14.4

5.2

12.0

13.0

15.7

10.1

9.4

5.4

5.6

15.1

18.9

8.9

3.3

10.0

4.4

9.6

12.6

19.9

5.6

12.0

Note: Data for Mexico City refer to the Federal District.

Source: Compiled by the U.S. Census Bureau from national statistical volumes.
U.S. Census Bureau An Aging World: 2001 55

people is increasing. In the 1970s, more prevalent as levels of adults, there is mounting evidence

the mobility of the Japanese popula- education and retirement income that the movement of older people

tion declined in all age groups with increase. In the United States, the to urban areas is becoming signifithe exception of the elderly (Otomo oldest old have been seen to move cant (Myers and Clark, 1991).

and Itoh, 1989). Census data for more frequently than younger elder- There is much less empirical inforCanada show that 23 percent of all ly, suggesting that the moves of the mation on the topic of return migrapeople aged 60 and over changed oldest old are related to health tion of older people to rural places

their principal residence at least problems and the need for different of origin. One review of available

once during the 5-year period 1986 living arrangements (Hobbs and data for Africa (Becker, 1991) conto 1991. Thirteen of the fifty states Damon, 1996). Recent Canadian cludes that, while return migration

in the United States had net elderly survey data find that older people of older people to their ancestral

inmigration rates of more than 10 moved most often because of the homes is not uncommon, several

per 1,000 elderly population during size of their home (usually opting factors — growing land pressure,

the 1985-90 period, and one out of for a smaller residence), a desire to formalization of rural property

rights, the increasing viability of five residents of Florida is now aged live in a better neighborhood, or to

family support for elders in urban 65 or older. A “retirement effect,” build/purchase a home (Che-Alford

areas — will dampen the likelihood i.e., an increase in mobility rates at and Stevenson, 1998). Among

of future return migration. Skeldon ages 60 to 64, has been noted in older Canadians with daily activity

(1999) notes that, while return the United States and the United limitations in 1991, the percent

migration may increase the size of Kingdom (Long, 1992). Refugee who moved in the previous 5 years

movements in Bosnia, Mozambique, older rural cohorts and aggravate was roughly the same as among the

social support issues, return and elsewhere have involved vast overall older population (22 per- migrants also may bring with them numbers of older people (Kalache, cent), but about one-third of these

wealth, knowledge, and other 1995) who are often overlooked in people relocated to homes with resources, particularly in the form relief operations that focus on chil- special health features. A German of pension income earned during dren and young adults. study of motivating factors for eld- years spent in the urban labor mar- erly mobility in the city of One of the few cross-national stud- ket. Migration from and within Heidelberg (Oswald, Wahl, and ies of elderly migration (Rogers, developing countries in general has Gang, 1997) suggests that basic 1988) identified two basic patterns. come to be seen as a strategic fami- needs (e.g., health) were roughly as One is characterized by amenity- ly decision rather than as an indi- important as “higher-order” needs motivated, long-distance relocation, vidual decision on the part of young such as privacy. the other by intracommunity, leavers (Vatuk, 1995). To the extent

assistance-motivated short-distance Information on migration patterns that migration raises family

moves. Available studies in devel- of older people in developing coun- incomes and the ability to reunite

oped countries suggest that the lat- tries is fragmented at best. members, increased movement of

ter are much more common, Although rural-to-urban migration older people may be expected in

although the former may become usually is associated with younger the future.
U.S. Census Bureau An Aging World: 2001 57

CHAPTER 6.

Sex Ratios and Marital Status

One common characteristic of populations throughout the world is the

preponderance of women at older

ages. Women are the majority of

the elderly population in the vast

majority of countries, and their

share of the population increases

with age. This gender imbalance at

older ages has many implications

for population and individual aging,

perhaps the most important of

which involve marital status and living arrangements. As discussed

further in Chapter 8, family members are the main source of emotional and economic support for the

elderly, although in some developed

countries the state has assumed a

larger share of the economic

responsibilities.

Marital status strongly affects many

aspects of one’s life. Studies in

developed countries show that married people, particularly married

men, are healthier and live longer

than their nonmarried counterparts

(Goldman, 1993; Hadju, McKee, and

Bojan, 1995; Waite, 1995; Schone

and Weinick, 1998). Older married

couples tend to be more financially

secure than nonmarried people.

Changes in marital status at older

ages can affect pension potential,

retirement income, and an individual’s social support network; many

older widowed men, in particular,

may lose contact with much of their

support network after their wife

dies (O’Bryant and Hansson, 1996).

In contrast, widowed women tend

to maintain their support network

after the death of a spouse (Scott

and Wenger, 1995). Marital status

also influences one’s living arrangements and affects the nature of

caregiving that is readily available male mortality rates is that between

in case of illness or disability. age 30 and 40, women usually

begin to outnumber men. In most

HIGHER MALE MORTALITY countries, the relative female advanRESULTS IN GENDER tage increases with successively IMBALANCE AT 

older age (Figure 6-1). OLDER AGES

The primary reason for the numeri- WORLD WAR II IS STILL

cal female advantage at older ages EVIDENT IN SEX COMPOSITION

AT OLDER AGES is the sex differential in mortality

discussed in Chapter 3. Although Historical events can play a major

more boys than girls are born, role in shaping the gender composimales typically have higher mortali- tion at older ages. For instance, the

ty rates than females. The sex dif- lingering effects of heavy war morferential in mortality begins at birth tality during World War II still can be

and continues throughout the life seen in the proportion female at

course. One outcome of higher older ages in certain countries. In

Figure 6-1.

Percent Female for Older 

Age Groups: 2000 

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000a.

United States

India

Brazil

Germany

Russia

65-69 

70-74 

75-79 

80+

Age

66

62

66

75

80

53

58

67

74

56

59

61

67

49

50

49

48

54

56

58
Russia, women account for 80 percent of the oldest old (aged 80 and

older) and in Germany they represent nearly 74 percent. In contrast, women account for only twothirds of the oldest-old population

in Brazil and the United States. 

THERE IS GREAT NATIONAL

DIVERSITY IN SEX RATIOS 

AMONG ELDERLY

A sex ratio is a common measure

used to portray a population’s gender composition. A sex ratio is conventionally defined as the number

of men per 100 women in a given

population or age category. Sex

ratios greater than 100 indicate

more men than women, and sex

ratios under 100 indicate the

reverse (i.e., more women than

men). In most countries of the

world, sex ratios at older ages are

below 100, in some cases quite a

bit below (e.g., Russia’s sex ratio is

46 men per 100 women aged 65

and older). Developed countries

tend to have lower sex ratios at

older ages than do developing

countries (Figure 6-2), although

there are many exceptions to this

generalization. The typical difference between developed and developing countries is explained by sex

differentials in life expectancies at

birth. As shown in Chapter 3,

developed countries tend to have

larger sex differentials in life

expectancy at birth than do developing countries, which results in

greater numbers of women than

men at older ages. 

PROJECTED TREND IN SEX

RATIO DIFFERS BY

DEVELOPMENT STATUS

In the future, sex ratios at older

ages are projected to move in opposite directions in the aggregate

58 An Aging World: 2001 U.S. Census Bureau

Figure 6-2.

Sex Ratio for Population 65 Years 

and Over: 2000 and 2030 

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000a. 

Zimbabwe

Turkmenistan

Turkey

Mexico

Kyrgyzstan

India

Guatemala

Brazil

Bangladesh

Argentina

United States

United Kingdom

Ukraine

Sweden

Russia

New Zealand

Italy

France

Canada

Australia

2000

2030

(Males per 100 females)

Developed countries

Developing countries

78

74

68

70

77

46

73

49

71

71

81

79

74

76

79

58

80

53

80

80

71

119

68

88

103

60

81

86

62

103

75

98

70

81

91

63

71

86

65

58
developed and developing worlds.

Between today and 2030, sex ratios

for the elderly are expected to

increase in many developed countries because the gender gap in life

expectancy is projected to narrow

(Figure 6-3). In other words, most

demographers expect that male life

expectancies in developed countries

are likely to improve at a faster

pace than female life expectancies.

The opposite is anticipated in many

developing countries. In view of

the historical pattern in developed

nations, sex differentials in developing-country life expectancies are

projected to widen, which will in

turn lead to lower future sex ratios. 

Regardless of the projected trends,

women are expected to make up

the majority of the world’s elderly

population (particularly at the oldest ages) well into the next century.

Continuing or growing disparities in

sex ratios mean that many of the

challenges and problems faced by

the elderly of today and tomorrow

are, in essence, challenges and

problems faced by older women.

Sex ratios at younger ages in some

countries of the world already are

quite skewed in favor of women.

This imbalance may be due to

excess male mortality at young

ages because of wars and other

forms of violence, disease, or to

disproportionate out-migration of

young men seeking work in other

countries. If mortality is the cause

of such severe sex ratios at younger

ages, then the implications for the

eventual aging of these cohorts is

different than if the cause is

U.S. Census Bureau An Aging World: 2001 59

Figure 6-3.

Aggregate Sex Ratios for Older Age Groups: 

2000 and 2030

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000a.

81

57

86

66

72

45

91

70

65-79 80+ 65-79 80+

2000

2030

Developed countries Developing countries

Table 6-1.

Sex Ratios for Population Aged 65 and Over for Countries

With More Elderly Men Than Women: 2000

Country Sex ratio

Qatar . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

United Arab Emirates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Kuwait . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Sudan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Bangladesh. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Saudi Arabia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Iran. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Taiwan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Afghanistan. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Niger . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Oman. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

The Gambia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Eritrea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Yemen . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Bahrain . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Bhutan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Tunisia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

243

226

182

133

119

118

112

113

112

111

111

111

104

104

104

103

103

101

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000a.
60 An Aging World: 2001 U.S. Census Bureau

Figure 6-4.

Percent Married at Older Ages

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000a.

75+

65-74

55-64

75+

65-74

55-64

75+

65-74

55-64

75+

65-74

55-64

75+

65-74

55-64

DEVELOPED COUNTRIES

Canada, 1991

Belgium, 1998

United States, 1995

Japan, 1990

Czech Republic, 1991

83

80

67

71

54

24

82

80

65

74

56

23

79

78

68

66

53

25

92

89 

74

77

54

21

84

80

60

65

42

14

Male

Female

75+

65-74

55-64

75+

65-74

55-64

75+

65-74

55-64

75+

65-74

55-64

75+

65-74

55-64

DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

Argentina, 1991

Indonesia, 1990

Chile, 1992

South Korea, 1995

Zimbabwe, 1992

21

79

76

63

61

42

17

90

84

70

55

33

18

74

69

59

57

42

22

94

88

72

66

34

11

90

85

78 

60

39
U.S. Census Bureau An Aging World: 2001 61

Figure 6-5.

Percent Widowed at Older Ages

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000a.

75+

65-74

55-64

75+

65-74

55-64

75+

65-74

55-64

75+

65-74

55-64

75+

65-74

55-64 

DEVELOPED COUNTRIES

Canada, 1991

Belgium, 1998

United States, 1995

Japan, 1990

Czech Republic, 1991

3

8

22

14

33

64

4

9

27

13

33

67

3

9

22

13

33

65

3

8

24

14

39

75

4

11

33

23

48

77

Male

Female

75+

65-74

55-64

75+

65-74

55-64

75+

65-74

55-64

75+

65-74

55-64

75+

65-74

55-64

DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

Argentina, 1991

Indonesia, 1990

Chile, 1992

South Korea, 1995

Zimbabwe, 1992

73

5

11

25

22

44

70

6

11

22

39

61

76

5

12

26

19

37

60

5

11

28

33

65

88

3

7

14

31

54
migration and the migrants return

to their native country when they

retire (or return for other reasons).

ELDERLY MEN OUTNUMBER

ELDERLY WOMEN IN SOME

COUNTRIES

While women outnumber men at

older ages in most countries, there

are 18 countries in Asia and Africa

where available data suggest that

the reverse is true (Table 6-1). One

likely explanation involves the social

status of women versus men in certain cultures. The relatively low

numbers of women at older ages

may reflect past levels of higher

female than male mortality, which

could be related to discriminatory

treatment accorded girls and women

throughout their lifetime. High sex

ratios at older ages also may be statistical artifacts. That is, women

(especially older women) may be

undercounted to a greater extent

than men in some national censuses, insofar as men are more likely to

interact with census enumerators

and may neglect to provide information on all female household members. Furthermore, certain concentrated patterns of male labor

migration may affect sex ratios to

the extent that a significant portion

of migrants remains in the host

country after reaching age 65.

OLDER MEN ARE MARRIED;

OLDER WOMEN ARE WIDOWED

Older men are more likely to be

married and older women are more

likely to be widowed in most countries of the world (Figures 6-4 and

6-5). In all but six of the 51 study

countries with data on martial status, over 70 percent of men aged

65 and older were married. Even at

ages 75 and older, a majority of

men were married. In contrast,

only 30 to 40 percent of women

aged 65 and over were married in 3 percent of men and 31 percent of

most study countries. Elderly women aged 55 to 64 were widwomen are much more likely to be owed in 1992. At ages 75 and over,

widowed. In 32 of the study coun- the respective figures were 

tries, over half of elderly women are 14 percent of men and 73 percent

widowed. of women. These data are typical of

the pattern seen in both developed For both men and women, the pro- and developing countries. portion married decreases with

older age and the proportion wid- The gender difference in marital staowed increases. However, gender tus results from a combination of

differences in survival and other fac- factors. The first is the aforementors (see below) result in very differ- tioned sex difference in longevity;

ent average ages of widowhood/ women simply live longer than

widowerhood. In the case of men. Secondly, women tend to

Belgium in 1998, 82 percent of men marry men older than themselves

aged 55 to 64 were married, com- which, combined with the sex difpared with 74 percent of women in ference in life expectancy, increases

that age group. At ages 75 and the chance that a woman will find

over, 65 percent of men were still herself without a spouse in her

married, compared with only older age. Furthermore, older wid23 percent of women. The gender owed men have higher remarriage

difference in proportions widowed is rates than older widowed women in

correspondingly pronounced (Figure many countries, often as a function

6-6). Data for Zimbabwe show that of cultural norms (Velkoff and

62 An Aging World: 2001 U.S. Census Bureau

Figure 6-6.

Percent Widowed in Belgium: 1998

Source: Belgium National Institute of Statistics, 1998.

0

20

40

60

80

100

20-24 30-34 40-44 50-54 60-64 70-74 80-84 90-94 100+

Percent 

Age

Female

Male
Kinsella, 1993; Cattell, 1997). The decreased. Some of the change is

fact that women are likely to lose attributable to improved joint surtheir spouse has important econom- vival of husbands and wives (Myers,

ic consequences for individuals and 1992). In certain countries, some

societies. A comparison of longitu- of the change can be explained by

dinal data from Germany and the the different marital experiences of

United States revealed that, birth cohorts. For instance, the

although the level of poverty is dif- diminishing effects of World War II

ferent in the two counties, most can be seen when the widowhood

women in both nations experienced rates of older women in Russia are

a decline in living standards upon compared for 1979 and 1994. In

widowhood, and many fell into 1979, 72 percent of older women in

poverty as a result of the loss of Russia were widowed while only 

public/private pension support 58 percent were widowed in 1994.

(Hungerford, 2001). By 1994, the cohorts that were

most affected by the war were aged

ELDERLY MORE LIKELY TO BE 75 and older. 

MARRIED THAN IN THE PAST

Over the last two or three decades, SMALL PROPORTIONS OF

ELDERLY HAVE NEVER MARRIED the marital status of the elderly has

changed. In a majority of the study Relatively few elderly in most councountries, the proportion of older tries have never married. In more

men and women who are married than half of the study countries, 

has increased slightly and the pro- 5 percent or less of elderly men and

portion who are widowed has 10 percent or less of elderly women

have never married. In some

European countries, the larger

proportions of elderly women who

have never married may be attributable to World War II. Many of

today’s elderly women were of

prime marriage age soon after the

war, when there was a shortage of

potential spouses due to war

deaths. Higher-than-average proportions of never-married elderly

are found in several Latin American

and Caribbean nations, which could

be a function of the prevalence of

consensual unions. While the category “consensual union” is widely

used in census tabulations in these

countries, some people living (or

who have lived) in a consensual

union are likely to report themselves to be never married.

FUTURE ELDERS MORE LIKELY

TO BE DIVORCED

Percentages currently divorced

among elderly populations tend to

be low. However, this will change

in the near future in many countries

as younger cohorts with higher proportions of divorced/separated people move into the ranks of the elderly (Gierveld, 2001). For instance,

in 1999 in the United States, around

9 percent of the elderly were

divorced or separated compared

with nearly 15 percent of men and

19 percent of women aged 55 to

64. The proportion divorced/separated is higher still for the age

group 45 to 54 (Figure 6-7). The

changing marital composition of the

elderly population as these younger

cohorts reach age 65 will affect the

nature and types of support services that both families and governments may need to provide, especially with regard to the growing

number of elderly who lack direct

familial support (Pezzin and Schone,

1999).

U.S. Census Bureau An Aging World: 2001 63

Figure 6-7.

Percent Divorced and Separated in the 

United States: 1999

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000a.

17.6

20.8

21.7

18.6

9.3

15.8

18.0 17.8

15.1

8.8

35-39 40-44 45-54 55-64 65+

Male

Female

Age group
U.S. Census Bureau An Aging World: 2001 65

CHAPTER 7.

Living Arrangements

Living arrangements are affected by those living in the community, the countries of the world, it is not

a host of factors including marital chances of institutionalization. surprising to find that the share of

status, financial well-being, health older women living alone is higher Three major observations emerge status, and family size and struc- than that of men. For elderly men in from a cross-national comparison of ture, as well as cultural traditions developed countries, the propor- living arrangements of the elderly. such as kinship patterns, the value tions range from a low of 5 percent First, women in developed coun- placed upon living independently, in Japan to a high of 25 percent in tries are much more likely than men the availability of social services Sweden. Proportions of elderly to live alone as they age; older men and social support, and the physical women residing singly are univer- are likely to live in family settings. features of housing stock and local sally higher, reaching half or more Second, both elderly men and communities. On the individual in Denmark, Germany, and Sweden. women in developing countries level, living arrangements are Percentages in developing countries usually live with adult children. dynamic, representing both a result tend to be much lower, although Third, the use of nonfamily institu- of prior events and an antecedent the levels for men and women in tions for care of the frail elderly to other outcomes (Van Solinge, some countries (e.g., Argentina, varies widely around the world. 1994). On the societal level, pat- Cyprus) rival those of certain

terns of living arrangements among MORE THAN HALF OF ELDERLY European nations. Again, older

the elderly reflect other characteris- DANISH WOMEN LIVE ALONE women are more likely than older

tics — demographic, economic, and men to live alone; St Lucia and Table 7-1 presents data from the cultural — which influence the cur- Taiwan are the only exceptions in 1990s on proportions of older peo- rent composition and robustness of Table 7-1. ple living alone in what are usually older citizens. In turn, living considered to be private (i.e., nonin- The gender gap for those living arrangements affect life satisfaction, stitutional) households. Since alone generally increases with age health, and most importantly for women outlive men in virtually all (Figure 7-1). However, for countries

Table 7-1.

Percent of Elderly Population Living Alone: Data From 1990 to 1999

Developed countries Male Female Developing countries Male Female

Australia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Czech Republic . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Denmark . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Finland. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

France . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Germany . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Greece. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Ireland . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Norway . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Portugal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Romania . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Sweden . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

United States . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

13.7

14.1

19.0

23.3

19.5

15.3

16.9

8.7

18.9

5.2

17.8

21.3

9.4

12.4

25.1

15.1

29.3

33.7

47.5

52.0

46.5

40.2

50.8

22.8

27.7

14.8

38.0

44.7

23.9

31.7

49.9

36.8

Argentina . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Aruba . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Bolivia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Cyprus . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Hong Kong . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Mexico . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Morocco (60+) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Philippines(60+) . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

South Korea(60+) . . . . . . . . . . . .

St. Lucia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Taiwan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Thailand(60+) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Vietnam(60+) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

11.2

12.5

13.2

10.6

11.6

7.5

11.3

4.4

3.1

20.9

13.0

2.9

2.5

21.1

15.4

15.7

24.8

13.2

14.0

44.7

6.4

11.8

18.9

7.4

5.5

8.1

Note: Data for Mexico are for seven cities, and refer to 1989. Data are for household populations aged 65 and over, unless otherwise

noted. Data for Morocco refer to urban areas only.

Sources: Compiled from data in United Nations Demographic Yearbooks (various dates) and national sources.
that disaggregate data at advanced

ages, the gender difference tends to

diminish at very old ages, presumably as a result of health and/or

economic factors that require institutional caretaking, communal living, or sharing of housing costs.

Both numbers and proportions of

elderly living alone have risen

sharply in developed countries

since the early 1960s, although

recent information suggests that

the rise in proportions might be

leveling off in some nations.

Everywhere, however, the absolute

numbers are increasing. Figure 7-2

illustrates a trend common to most

developed countries, i.e., the

increase has been largely fueled by

women. Data from the 1996 census of Canada show more than

700,000 elderly women living

alone, a jump of more than 180,000

since 1986. The number of elderly

women living alone grew at an

average annual rate of 5.4 percent

from 1961 to 1996, compared with

a rate of 1.4 percent for the entire

Canadian population. One implication of such change is that, in most

developed countries, women must

anticipate a period of living alone at

some point during their older years.

“ELDERLY-ONLY” HOUSEHOLDS

ARE INCREASINGLY COMMON

An earlier version of this report

(Kinsella and Taeuber, 1993) pointed out that elderly people living

alone were a significant factor in

national household profiles in

Europe. In several nations (e.g.,

Belgium, Denmark, France, and the

United Kingdom) in the 1980s,

more than 11 percent of all national

households consisted of a solitary

individual aged 65 or over. The

most common living arrangement

for the elderly in Europe was with

66 An Aging World: 2001 U.S. Census Bureau

Figure 7-1.

Percent of Elderly Living Alone in 

Germany and the United States 

by Available Age Groups

Source: National sources. 

32

45

66

32

51

61

13 14

24

14

20

36

65-69 70-74 75+ 65-74 75-84 85+

Germany, 1999 United States, 1995

Male

Female

Age group

Figure 7-2.

Elderly Living Alone in Canada: 1961 to 1996 

Source: National sources.

0

200

400

600

800

1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996

Thousands

Female

Male
another elderly person in a two- reimbursement payments which dis- national differences in elderly living

person household. A related calcu- courage institutional living. arrangements in Europe are characlation revealed that three out of terized more by diversity than by

every ten households in a 12-nation MAJORITY OF ELDERLY IN similarity. DEVELOPED COUNTRIES LIVE European aggregate contained at WITH OTHER PEOPLE least one elderly person. TWO- OR THREE-GENERATION

Although high proportions of elder- HOUSEHOLD STILL THE

Data from the 1991 census of Great DEVELOPING-COUNTRY NORM ly often live alone in developed

Britain (for England, Wales, and countries, a majority of those aged In all developing regions of the

Scotland) are even more striking; 65 and over still live with other world, with the possible exception

15 percent of all households in Great people. Data from 13 European of the Caribbean, the most common

Britain consisted of a single pension- nations (Table 7-2) show that the living arrangement for elderly peoer living alone, while another 10 per- proportion of elderly living with one ple (married or widowed) is with

cent of households had two or more other elderly person only (in most children and/or grandchildren.

pensioners with no other people cases a spouse) tends to be higher Between 72 and 79 percent of older

present. Hence, 25 percent of all than the proportion living singly. (60 and over) respondents in 1984

households in the country consisted Between 10 and 14 percent of the World Health Organization surveys

of pensioners only. Overall, one- elderly in the 13 nations live with in Malaysia, the Philippines, Fiji, and

third of Britain’s households had at one other person who is less than South Korea lived with children

least one resident pensioner. 65 years of age; many of these eld- (Andrews et al., 1986), and similar

erly are likely to be either men liv- results have been observed in coun- In developed countries, the growth

ing with younger spouses, or wid- tries as diverse as India, Indonesia, in “elderly-only” households may be

owed or divorced individuals living Cote d’Ivoire, Singapore, and (at due in part to changes in social and

with a child. Nations vary greatly in earlier times) six Latin American economic policies. These include:

the proportion of elderly people liv- nations (Kinsella, 1990). More increases in benefits that allow older

ing in households of three or more recent data from four Asian nations people to live independently of their

people, from only 5 to 6 percent in (Figure 7-3) show a persisting pat- children; programs that more easily

Sweden and Denmark to 35 percent tern. While the levels may appear permit the conversion of housing

wealth into income; programs that or more in Ireland, Greece, Portugal, similar, the broad category of “living

and Spain. As earlier studies (Wall, with offspring” encompasses a encourage the building of elder1989; Pampel, 1992) have noted, plethora of specific family and friendly housing; and revisions in

U.S. Census Bureau An Aging World: 2001 67

Table 7-2.

Composition of European Households With Elderly Members: Early 1990s

Country

Percent elderly in households with:

One person 65

years or over

(1 person

household)

Another person Another person

65 years or under 65 years Two

over (2 person (2 person other

household) household) persons

Three or

more other

persons

Denmark . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Greece . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Spain . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

France . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Ireland . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Italy. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Netherlands. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Austria . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Portugal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Finland . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Sweden . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

United Kingdom . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Switzerland . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

42.4

17.7

16.6

32.1

26.2

25.9

35.5

35.3

18.5

38.4

41.1

35.7

34.0

40.6

29.4

31.4

39.9

25.3

31.3

45.4

29.4

33.8

32.2

44.4

40.5

41.2

11.4

14.2

11.3

11.9

13.1

12.7

11.5

12.9

11.9

12.8

10.0

11.9

12.6

4.1

15.0

17.4

9.7

16.4

14.7

5.5

10.2

14.4

8.9

3.6

7.9

8.1

1.5

23.7

23.3

6.5

18.9

15.4

2.2

12.2

21.3

7.7

0.9

3.9

4.1

Source: Eurostat, 1996.
household types, differing not only

among nations but among ethnic

groups within nations. Such diversity points to the importance of cultural and ideological as well as

demographic factors in the determination of living arrangements of

older people (Albert and Cattell,

1994).

A growing concern in developing

countries is the extent to which the

twin processes of modernization

and urbanization will change traditional family structures (Zhou,

2000). Data for most of the developing world generally are insufficient for documenting changes in

living arrangements of the elderly.

Although the case of Japan may not

seem especially relevant to developing nations, the extended family

structure common to the latter has

historically been a feature of

Japanese society as well. Time

series data (Figure 7-4) show that

the number and proportion of

extended-family households in

Japan have been declining, and that

the proportions of elderly living

alone or with spouse only have

been increasing. 

These trends in Japan have led to

the suggestion (Kamo, 1988) that

the impact of industrialization has

undermined the indigenous culture

of Japan vis-a-vis the status of its

elderly citizens, and set the stage

for the eventual predominance of

the nuclear family. Related to this

is the notion of “intimacy at a distance” (see, e.g., Stehouwer, 1968;

Rowland, 1991). That is, as the

financial (and to some extent

health) status of elderly people

improves, a larger proportion are

able to afford to live alone and

choose to do so in independent

dwellings, while at the same time

maintaining close familial contact

and exchange supports. A growing

literature relates improvements in normative changes toward individsocial security programs and gen- ualism and personal independence

eral economic welfare to the ability (see, e.g., the discussion and referand desire of older persons to ences in Gierveld, 2001). This conchoose independent living arrange- cept has found general currency in

ments, presumably reflecting a variety of cultural settings,

68 An Aging World: 2001 U.S. Census Bureau

Figure 7-3.

Percent of People Aged 60 and Over Living 

With Children in Four Asian Countries: 

Circa 1996

Sources: Anh et al., 1997; Chan, 1997; Knodel and Chayovan, 1997; and Natividad and Cruz, 1997. 

67.4

90.6

69.4 71.9 71.8

86.5

72.7

76.5

Vietnam

(Red River Delta)

Philippines Singapore Thailand

Male

Female

Figure 7-4.

Living Arrangements of Japanese Elderly: 1960 to 1995

Note: "With kin" includes very small numbers of elderly cohabitating with nonkin. 

Source: Japan Management and Coordination Agency, cited in Atoh, 1998. 

Institution

0 20 40 60 80 100

1995

1985

1975

1960

With kin Elderly 

couple only

Alone

Percent
although a recent analysis of data lowered fertility, increased geofrom the Indonesian Family Life graphical mobility, and the rapid

Survey (Cameron, 2000) finds little advance in medical technology —

evidence that increases in the has led to a steep rise in numbers

income of the elderly, or that of their of institutionalized elderly. The

children, lead to a significant change highest rates of institutional use are

in traditional family structure. found in many of the world’s oldest

countries, and the absolute numNUMBERS OF bers of users are expanding even in INSTITUTIONALIZED ELDERLY the face of increasing efforts to RISING enhance community-based services

A number of studies (e.g., Manton, and avoid or greatly reduce levels

Stallard, and Liu, 1993; Weiner and of institutionalization.

Illston, 1995; Leung, 2000) have

In spite of the intense media scruti- documented the direct relationship

ny of and controversy surrounding between population age-sex strucinstitutional residence, the fact ture, age-sex-specific rates of chronremains that relatively small propor- ic disease and disability, and the

tions of elderly populations reside need for long-term care. The conin institutions at any given time. fluence of several macro trends in

Cross-national comparisons of insti- developed countries — older popututionalized populations are prob- lation age structures, higher incilematic due to the absence of dence of noncommunicable disease,

internationally consistent data, and

differences between countries

should be construed as orders of

magnitude rather then as precise

measurements. One attempt to collate reasonably-comparative data on

residential care in the 1990s (OECD,

1996) suggests that usage rates for

developed countries (Figure 7-5)

range from 2 percent in Portugal to

9 percent in the Netherlands.1

There is substantial variation in the

use of custodial institutions and in

the mix of long-term care alternatives and services (see, e.g., Ribbe

et al., 1997; Mechanic and

McAlpine, 2000). One study (Doty,

1992) suggests that Japan,

Australia, and North America have

made greater relative use of medical residential care, while an

emphasis on nonmedical facilities

has been more apparent in Belgium,

Sweden, and Switzerland. 

In Eastern Europe and parts of the

former Soviet Union, the combination of low fertility and the rapid

increase in oldest-old population

might be expected to translate into

a growing use of institutional health

care and maintenance services. To

date, however, available information

indicates that institutionalization of

older people is not common. In

Russia, for instance, the capacity of

(number of existing places in) old

people’s homes and nursing homes

throughout the former USSR in the

late 1980s was estimated to be

U.S. Census Bureau An Aging World: 2001 69

1 Although the percentage of elderly in institutions at any given moment may be relatively

low, on average around 5 percent in developed

countries, an estimated 25 to 30 percent of

people who survive to age 65 can expect to

spend some time in an institutional setting

before they die (Sundstrom, 1994). Thus the

longitudinal risk of experiencing institutionalization is much higher than cross-sectional

rates might suggest. Considerable research

interest currently is devoted to untangling the

dynamics of institutional use, including transitions to and from such facilities and the underlying health conditions that drive the transitions.

Figure 7-5.

Percent of Elderly in Residential Care: 

Early to Mid-1990s

Notes: Canada and Finland: figures represent the midpoint of an estimated range. 

Japan and the Netherlands: some of the residential care is provided in hospitals. 

Sources: OECD, 1996; Jacobzone, 1999.

Turkey

Portugal

Spain

Italy

Austria

Ireland

United Kingdom

United States

Japan

Finland

Belgium

France

Norway

New Zealand

Luxembourg

Germany

Canada

Australia

Denmark

Sweden

Netherlands

0.2

8.8

8.7

7.0

6.8

6.8

6.8

6.8

6.7

6.6

6.5

6.4

6.4

6.0

5.7

5.1

5.0

4.9

3.9

2.9

2.0
between 320,000 (Muzafarov and

Kurleutov 1994) and 380,000

(Bezrukov, 1993); the higher estimate represents less than 1.5 percent of the USSR population aged

65 and over as of 1988. While the

average Russian view of institutionalization may be extremely negative

(Powell, 1991), there does appear to

be an unmet need for institutional

services. Lengthy waiting lists for

institutional admission have been

the norm for many years, and official time series data for Russia

show a steady rise in the number of

nursing/old people’s homes, from

around 700 in 1985 to more than

900 in 1996. At the same time, the

number of places in such institutions has remained fairly constant,

suggesting a downsizing of the

average facility. Older people living

alone, and especially never-married

elderly men, are said to be at particularly high risk of institutionalization. In rural areas of the country,

district hospitals frequently serve as

long-term residences for the elderly,

for social as well as health reasons

(Bezrukov, 1993).

Rates of institutionalization usually

are very low or negligible in the

developing world. In official rhetoric, at least, the Western model of

institutional care for older people

often is rejected as culturally inappropriate (Gibson, 1992). Outside

of Europe and North America, social

traditions and official decrees of filial and familial responsibility have

obviated, at least until recently,

debate about living arrangements

of the elderly. Lately, however, a

number of countries have recognized that even if the family retains

much of its support function for the

elderly, demographic and socioeconomic changes will inevitably produce strains. Consequently, many

developing nations have adopted

new policies aimed at alleviating octogenarians. More than half of

current and anticipated problems. all Norwegians aged 85 and over

Long-term care provision and/or reside in institutions at a given

homes for the aged have become point in time, as do one-third or

increasingly accepted and common more of this age group in Australia

in countries — especially in and New Zealand. In fact, a majorSoutheast Asia — where sustained ity of people entering institutions

fertility declines have led to rapid or other types of collective

population aging and reduced the dwellings have reached very

numbers of potential family care- advanced age. Those who enter at

givers (Phillips, 2000; Bartlett and less-advanced ages tend to be

Wu, 2000). either single or widowed and childless, i.e., people who are unlikely

ELDERLY WOMEN to have young family members to PREDOMINATE IN rely upon for support (Soldo, 1987). INSTITUTIONAL POPULATIONS

Women and the oldest old, therefore, Institutional use is strongly associare disproportionately represented ated with increasing age regardless

among the institutionalized elderly of national setting (Figure 7-6). In

most developed countries, fewer (Figure 7-7). In the United States in

1997, three-fourths of all nursing than 2 percent of the young old

home residents were women, and (aged 65 to 69) are in institutions.

slightly more than half of all nursing This level rises fairly slowly until

home residents were aged 85 or age 80, but many nations experiolder. People in institutions at one ence a sharp increase in institupoint in time, however, do not tionalization rates among

70 An Aging World: 2001 U.S. Census Bureau

Figure 7-6.

Percent of Elderly in Institutions in 

Austria and New Zealand: 1991

Source: OECD, 1996.

1.6 2.4

4.2

8.9

22.2

1.3

2.4

5.9

14.9

37.7

1.0

2.0 3.1

5.7

10.7

0.9

2.3

5.1

9.5

20.8

65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85+ 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85+

Male Female

Austria

New Zealand

Age group
necessarily remain there and “age in multiple transitions. Some national

place” indefinitely. Many older indi- nursing home systems (e.g., the

viduals who enter an institution Netherlands) have well-developed

eventually leave, and many make rehabilitative programs which

discharge a high proportion of users

back into the community, while others systems have relatively limited

rehabilitative services (Ribbe et al.,

1997).

NATURE OF INSTITUTIONAL

USE HAS CHANGED

Policies toward and practices of

institutionalization of older people

in developed countries have

changed over the past half-century.

In the United States and elsewhere,

institutionalization in the early

1900s was generally associated

with poverty and/or inability to

work. The elderly often were

housed with younger “welfare populations” and were supported largely

by local agencies. By the middle of

the twentieth century, hospitalbased care for the elderly had

become more common, at least in

the United States, with financial and

operational control likely to come

from state governments. Beginning

in the 1950s, social policy encouraged a shift away from hospital use

toward nursing-home use. The

United States experienced a rapid

expansion of nursing home capacity

(OECD, 1996), with emphasis on

providing for chronic disease and

physical disability needs. Federal

funding assumed greater prominence, as did private sources of

funding. More recently, the private

long-term care insurance industry

has grown rapidly, while new forms

of home and community-based

services (e.g., assisted living) have

emerged. With U.S. long-term care

costs doubling each decade since

1970 (reaching an annual level of

$106 billion in 1995; Stallard,

1998), the mix of institutional and

home-based care has been shifting

rapidly toward the latter, especially

for the oldest old (Cutler and Meara,

1999).

U.S. Census Bureau An Aging World: 2001 71

Figure 7-7.

Percent of U.S. Elderly in Nursing Homes by Age: 

1973-74, 1985, 1995, and 1997

Source: U.S. Centers for Disease Control, 1999. 

Percent

Male

Percent

Female

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1973-74 1985 1995 1997

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1973-74 1985 1995 1997

65-74

75-84

85+

65-74

75-84

85+
Countries in Europe also have been attributed largely to differences in mere fact of elderly coresidence

active in changing long-term care the organization and financing of with a younger generation(s) tells

policies and practices in response long-term care as well as differing us little about the quality of intrato population aging. Heightened sectoral responsibilities for care. household relationships and life satspending on institutional care Nations clearly are struggling with isfaction.

prompted Great Britain to revamp alternative methods of long-term Instead of focusing on living legislation in the 1990s, transfer- care financing and provision, and it arrangements per se, attention ring more fiscal control to local gov- is hoped that countries can learn might better be directed to under- ernments and tightening means- from one another via cross-national standing the complex set of mecha- tested provisions. Austria instituted research that proceeds from the nisms and interpersonal relation- a new federal act in 1993 aimed types of efforts now underway in ships that determine the timing and primarily at increasing options relat- Europe. content of support for older per- ed to personal care arrangements

BEYOND LIVING sons. This perspective is summed and supporting individuals in their ARRANGEMENTS up well by the phrase “function own homes for as long as possible. rather than form,” meaning that the Germany, in 1995, unveiled a sys- Living arrangements of older per- mechanisms and characteristics of tem of universal long-term care sons clearly are an important com- an individual’s support network are insurance which features expanded ponent of life, but we should be much more salient to well-being benefits without major changes in careful not to infer too much from (and to policymaking) than are mere means-testing. Importantly, the effi- cross-sectional descriptive data on attributes of who lives with whom cacy of such changes will be moni- residence patterns. We need to be (Hermalin, 1999). Survey research tored and evaluated by research aware of how living arrangements and methodology increasingly are projects underway in each country change as a function of the growth focused on the full mapping of (Wolf, 1998). in elderly populations and their complex kin networks, household shifting health and kin-availability As noted above, developed coun- and kin microsimulation techniques, profiles (Palloni, 2000). And as tries vary enormously in their use and new data-record linkages that alluded to earlier, the well-being of and view of institutional residency allow analysts and policymakers to individuals is not necessarily reflect- for older citizens. A study (Ribbe et better understand the underlying ed in living arrangements. Living al., 1997) of nursing homes in ten dynamics of intergenerational trans- alone in old age has sometimes nations found no apparent relation fers and well-being in old age been interpreted as a lack of famil- between the level of population (Hagestad, 2000; Wolf, 2000). ial and social integration, when in aging and the number of nursing Chapters 8 and 11 look further at fact it may be indicative of good home beds. The surprising lack of family and social support for older health, economic well-being, and cross-national consistency is persons. social connectedness. Likewise, the

72 An Aging World: 2001 U.S. Census Bureau
Shifts in population age structure and not all working-age people because the relatively large postgenerally result in new service actually work or provide direct sup- World War II birth cohorts will still

demands and economic require- port to elderly family members. be of working age through at least

ments. With an increasingly older The statistics discussed in the first 2010. In several nations (notably

age structure comes change in the part of this chapter may be seen as the United Kingdom, the United

relative numbers of people who can rough guides to when we can States, and Russia), the elderly supprovide support to those who need expect the particular age distribu- port ratio will not change signifiit. In the early 1980s, Myers and tion of a country to affect the need cantly from 2000 to 2010. Some

Nathanson (1982) identified three for distinct types of social services, developed nations, however, are

prominent issues regarding popula- housing, and consumer products. aging at a much faster pace.

tion and the family: 1) the extent to These data suggest some of the fac- Between 2000 and 2015, the elderly

which changes in social norms and tors that will shape patterns of support ratio in Denmark is likely to

responsibilities, driven by the secu- social relationships and societal increase 33 percent (from 24 to 32),

lar processes of urbanization and expenditures in the coming and the increase in the Czech

modernization, alter traditional decades, but tell us little about the Republic will likely be 36 percent

familial modes of caring for older changing nature of the health and (22 to 30). Most notably, Japan’s

people; 2) the possible social sup- economic resources of the aged in elderly support ratio is expected to

port burden resulting from reduced the future. jump 63 percent (from 27 to 44)

economic self-sufficiency of aged during the 15-year period. 

people and the likelihood of height- RAPID RISE IN ELDERLY

SUPPORT RATIOS EXPECTED IN From 2015 to 2030, the elderly sup- ened chronic disease morbidity and DEVELOPED COUNTRIES port ratio will increase by more than functional impairment related to AFTER 2010 40 percent in several developed longer life expectancy; and 3) the

Broad changes in a nation’s age nations as the large working-age ways in which countries develop

structure are reflected in changing cohorts begin to retire. In 2030, funding priorities for public care

societal support ratios. These ratios Japan’s elderly support ratio is pro- systems given competing demands

typically indicate the number of jected to be 52 (Figure 8-1). Italy is for scarce resources.

youth and/or elderly people per 100 likely to have an elderly support

To gain a broad view of these people aged 20 to 64 years, primary ratio of 49 in 2030, and nearly all

dynamics, demographic assess- ages for participation in the labor European countries will have elderly

ments of intergenerational support force. A commonly used measure support ratios over 40. New

often consider various ratios of one of potential social support needs is Zealand has the lowest projected

age group to another. This chapter the elderly support ratio (sometimes ratio (30) among the developed

considers societal support ratios, called the elderly dependency ratio), nations in this study, with other relaparent support ratios, and changes defined here as the number of peo- tively low figures seen in the United

in kin availability. As seen through- ple aged 65 and over per 100 peo- States and Eastern Europe.

out this report, the elderly popula- ple aged 20 to 64 in a given population is diverse in terms of its ELDERLY SUPPORT RATIOS IN tion. In the coming decades, elderly MOST DEVELOPING COUNTRIES resources, needs, and abilities. The support ratios will rise in developed TO CHANGE SLOWLY stereotype of the elderly as a pre- countries as a result of both declindominately dependent group that Elderly support ratios are much ing fertility and increasing longevity.

drains a nation’s economy has erod- lower in developing than in devel- The rise has been and will continue

ed. Not all elderly require support oped countries, often with ten or to be modest in most countries

U.S. Census Bureau An Aging World: 2001 73

CHAPTER 8.

Family and Social Support 

of Older People
fewer elderly people per 100 people

aged 20 to 64. Among the 30

developing countries in this study,

Uruguay had the highest level (24)

in 2000, followed by Argentina (19)

and Israel (18). Many developing

countries will experience little if any

change in their elderly support

ratios from 2000 to 2015, because

the high-fertility cohorts of the

1960s and 1970s will still be under

age 65 in 2015. Thailand and

South Korea stand out as exceptions as they are expected to experience relatively large increases in

the ratio between 2000 and 2015.

In Bangladesh, Kenya, Malawi,

Morocco, and Uruguay, on the other

hand, the elderly support ratio is

expected to remain stable between

2000 and 2015. In Jamaica and

Pakistan the elderly support ratio is

projected to decline by 2015, even

though the absolute numbers of

elderly population are increasing.

In countries where fertility remains

high or has just recently begun to

decline significantly — as in much

of Africa and South Asia — elderly

support ratios should change little

during the entire period 2000 to

2030. Eastern and Southeastern

Asia and parts of Latin America, on

the other hand, could witness significant change during that time. The

elderly support ratio is projected to

at least double between 2000 and

2030 in 11 Asian and Latin

American study countries, and to

triple in South Korea.

YOUTH SUPPORT RATIOS TO

DECLINE

The working-age population also

provides support for young people.

74 An Aging World: 2001 U.S. Census Bureau

Figure 8-1.

Elderly Support Ratios: 1950 to 2030 

Sources: United Nations, 1999 and U.S. Census Bureau, 2000a.

Number of people aged 65 and over per 100 people aged 20 to 64

Developed countries

Number of people aged 65 and over per 100 people aged 20 to 64

Developing countries

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1950 1965 1980 1995 2010 2025

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1950 1965 1980 1995 2010 2025

United States

South Korea

Argentina 

Egypt 

Belgium

Japan
Children outnumber working-age DIVERGENT TOTAL SUPPORT

adults in many developing RATIO PATTERNS IN

DEVELOPED VERSUS countries. As a result, youth sup- DEVELOPING COUNTRIES port ratios — defined here as people under age 20 per 100 adults The total support ratio (youth plus

aged 20 to 64 years — for 2000 elderly in relation to the workingwere in excess of 100 in several age population) provides a gross

developing countries (mainly in indication of the overall support

Africa). In the developed countries burden on working-age adults. The

in this study, however, youth sup- level of the total support ratio over

port ratios ranged from only 31 in time is pertinent to policymakers,

Italy to 49 in New Zealand. but knowing the balance of old versus young may be more important In most countries of the world, because supporting the young is youth support ratios are projected probably less costly than support- to decline between 2000 and 2030. ing the elderly (especially as the In countries where the present level elderly population itself ages). With is high, the youth support ratio may the major exception of education, decline by half or more. In Kenya, the costs of young people are borne for example, the 2000 level of 133 by families more than by govern- is projected to plummet to 61 in ment programs, although some 2030. European governments provide the

bulk of support to both young and

old alike.

From 2000 to 2015, the total support ratio (TSR) should remain relatively stable in most developed

countries as declining numbers of

children more than offset growing

numbers of elderly (Figure 8-2).

From 2015 to 2030, however,

increasing numbers of elderly people will boost the TSR in all developed nations even though the

youth component may decline

slightly. Among the study countries,

the proportional gain in the TSR

from 2015 to 2030 is projected to

be greatest in Russia (30 percent).

The United States is projected to

have the highest TSR (87) among

the developed countries in the year

2030, with 7 other developed countries also projected to have TSRs in

excess of 80.

For the foreseeable future in developing countries, major fertility

reductions are likely to outweigh

growing numbers of elderly people.

At the same time, the working-age

population is increasing. Hence,

future TSRs for the vast majority of

developing countries are projected

to be lower than in 2000. Even

though growth rates for the youth

and elderly will be higher than in

developed countries during the

next three decades, TSRs in developing countries often will be lower

because of the massive numbers of

working-age adults in their populations. Such change may portend a

window of economic opportunity

for developing countries. As the

ratio of working-age to total population rises, economies have relatively

more productive units and therefore

more opportunity to grow (other

factors being equal). 

U.S. Census Bureau An Aging World: 2001 75

Figure 8-2.

Youth and Elderly Components of the Total 

Support Ratio: 2000, 2015, and 2030 

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000a. 

2030

2015

Philippines, 2000

2030

2015

Uruguay, 2000

2030

2015

France, 2000

2030

2015

Australia, 2000

(Youth ratio: people aged 0 to 19 per 100 people aged 20 to 64; 

Elderly ratio: people aged 65 and over per 100 people aged 20 to 64)

Youth

Elderly

13

46

40

40

43

39

38

59

55

50

98

76

60

21

26

37

27

32

44

24

24

28

7

9
THE USEFULNESS OF ELDERLY

SUPPORT RATIOS

Implicit in the standard definition of

an elderly support ratio is the

notion that all people over age 64

are in some sense dependent on the

population in the working ages (20

to 64) who provide indirect support

to the elderly through taxes and

contributions to social welfare programs. We know, of course, that

elderly populations are extremely

diverse in terms of resources,

needs, and abilities, and that many

elderly are not dependent in either

a financial or a physical (health)

sense. Older people pay taxes,

often have income and wealth that

fuel economic growth, and provide

support to younger generations.

Likewise, substantial portions of the

working-age population may not be

financial earners, for reasons of

unemployment, inability to work,

pursuit of education, choosing to be

out of the labor force, and so forth.

While it is empirically difficult to

include factors such as intrafamily

financial assistance and child care

activities into an aggregate measure

of social support, it is feasible to

take account of employment characteristics in both the working-age

and elderly populations. In Figure

8-3, the topmost bar for each country represents the standard elderly

support ratio as defined above. The

second bar includes only the economically active population aged 20

to 64 in the denominator, thereby

excluding people who choose not to

work, unpaid household workers,

nonworking students, and perhaps

those individuals whose health status keeps them out of the labor

force. The third bar represents a

calculation similar to the second bar,

but removes economically active

people aged 65 and over from the

numerator on the assumption that

they are not economically depend- factors as (1) workers under age 20;

ent. The fourth bar builds on the (2) trends in unemployment; (3)

third bar by adding these economi- average retirement ages; and (4)

cally active elderly to the ratio levels of pension receipt and institudenominator of other economically tionalization among the elderly,

active individuals, on the assump- and/or the prevalence of high-cost

tion that these working elderly con- disabilities.

tinue to contribute tax revenue to

RAPIDLY CHANGING AGE national coffers. 

STRUCTURE IS A CHALLENGE

The alternative ratios in each coun- TO SUPPORT IN SOME

DEVELOPING COUNTRIES try are higher than the standard elderly support ratio, except in Japan One of the more dramatic demowhere the elderly have a relatively graphic developments in the last

high rate of labor force participation two decades has been the pace of

(often as part-time workers). To the fertility decline in many developing

extent that policy and program countries. The common perception

agencies use support ratio calcula- is that below-replacement fertility

tions, the effect of including versus levels are seen only in the industriexcluding labor force participation alized nations of the Northern

rates appears considerable in most Hemisphere. As of 2000, however,

countries. Data permitting, other the total fertility rate was below

adjustments might be made to replacement level in 21 developing

these ratios to account for such countries, mostly in Latin America

76 An Aging World: 2001 U.S. Census Bureau

Figure 8-3.

Standard and Alternative Elderly Support Ratios: 1998

Sources: International Labour Office Yearbook of Labour Statistics, 1999 and U.S. Census Bureau, 2000a. 

Germany

United

States

Spain

Japan

Finland

Total population 

65 and over per 100

total population 20-64

Noneconomically active 

population 65 and over per

100 economically active 

population 20 and over

Noneconomically active 

population 65 and over per

100 economically active 

population 20-64

Total population 65 and over

per 100 economically active

population 20-64

32

24

31

31

31

26

33

25

23

27

39

39

39

22

27

24

23

25

34

33
U.S. Census Bureau An Aging World: 2001 77

Figure 8-4.

Population by Single Years of Age for China: 2000

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000a.

Millions

Age Male Female

15 12 9 6 3

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85+

0 3 6 9 12 15
and the Caribbean and parts of Asia

(U.S. Census Bureau, 2000a), and is

declining steeply in many other

developing countries. 

The situation in the People’s

Republic of China illustrates the

potential effect that rapidlydeclining fertility may have vis-a-vis

population aging. In 1979, China

established an official one-child-perfamily policy aimed at curbing

growth in the world’s most populous nation. While the policy was

relaxed somewhat in subsequent

years, China’s total fertility rate

declined to an estimated level of

1.8 children per woman in 2000.

As a result, China will age sooner

and more quickly than most developing countries.

China’s age profile in 2000 contained a large “bulge” consisting of

people aged 26 to 37 (Figure 8-4).

The oldest people in this age bulge

will be entering their sixties just

prior to the year 2025. This population momentum will produce a

rapid aging of the Chinese population in the third and fourth decades

of the twenty-first century. Recent

analyses of 1995 sample census

data from China suggest higher oldage mortality than had been previously estimated, resulting in lower

numbers of projected elderly people. Nevertheless, the number of

Chinese aged 65 years and over is

now projected to increase from 

88 million in 2000 to 197 million in

2025, and to 341 million in 2050.

Short of a catastrophic rise in adult

mortality or massive emigration of

an unprecedented scale, we can be

reasonably certain that this growth

will occur, because the elderly of

the middle decades of the twentyfirst century are already born.

Eventually, China’s projected youth

and elderly support ratios are likely

78 An Aging World: 2001 U.S. Census Bureau

Figure 8-5.

Youth and Elderly Support Ratios in 

China: 1985 to 2050

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000a. 

0

20

40

60

80

100

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Youth ratio: people aged 0 to 19 per 100 people aged 20 to 64; 

Elderly ratio: people aged 65 and over per 100 people aged 20 to 64

Youth

Elderly

Figure 8-6.

Parent Support Ratios in Four World 

Regions: 1950, 2000, and 2030

Note: South America includes: Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, French Guiana, 

Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, and Venezuela. 

Eastern Asia includes: China, North Korea, South Korea, Hong Kong, Japan, Macau, Mongolia, and Taiwan 

Western Europe includes: Austria, Belgium, France, Germany, Liechtenstein, Luxembourg, Monaco, 

Netherlands, and Switzerland. 

Western Africa includes: Benin, Burkina Faso, Cape Verde, Cote d' Ivoire, Gambia, Ghana, Guinea, 

Guinea-Bissau, Liberia, Mali, Mauritania, Niger, Nigeria, St. Helena, Senegal, Sierra Leone, and Togo. 

Sources: United Nations, 1997 and U.S. Census Bureau, 2000a. 

15 17

37

7

10 9

20

4 4 3

7

3

South America Eastern Asia Western Europe Western Africa

1950

2000

(People aged 80 and over per 100 people aged 50 to 64) 2030
to converge (Figure 8-5), and we

may anticipate a social and economic fabric radically different from

that of today.

MORE PEOPLE WILL FACE

CARING FOR FRAIL RELATIVES

In the eighteenth and nineteenth

centuries, low levels of life

expectancy meant that people on

average lived a relatively short

amount of time in a multigenerational family (United Nations,

1990b). While most older individuals lived with family members,

years spent in an extended-family

arrangement were limited because

the average person died shortly

after becoming a grandparent

(Hareven, 1996). Declining mortality and increased longevity have

increased the odds of joint survival

of different generations within a

family. In developed countries,

joint survival has manifested itself

in the “beanpole family,” a vertical

extension of family structure characterized by an increase in the

number of living generations within

a lineage and a decrease in the

number of members within each

generation (Bengston, Rosenthal,

and Burton, 1995). As mortality

rates continue to improve, more

and more people in their fifties and

sixties are likely to have surviving

parents, aunts, and uncles. More

children will know their grandparents and even their greatgrandparents, especially their greatgrandmothers. There is no

historical precedent for a majority

of middle-aged and young-old

adults having living parents.

Menken (1985) has estimated that

one in three women 50 years old

had living mothers in the United

States in 1940, whereas by 1980

the proportion had doubled to two

in three.

SANDWICH GENERATION A

DEVELOPED-COUNTRY

PHENOMENON

One aspect of the changing age

structure of families that has

received recent attention is the socalled “sandwich generation,” that

is, people who find themselves caring for elderly parents while still

caring for/supporting their own

children or grandchildren and often

participating in the labor force. In

developed countries especially,

more people will face the concern

and expense of caring for their very

old, frail relatives with multiple,

chronic disabilities and illnesses.

The need for help is likely to come

at the very time when the adult children of the frail elderly are near or

have reached retirement age.1 In

developing countries, the adult children may well have children of their

own living in the household. Some

of the adult children may bear

health limitations of their own.

Those frail elderly without children

may face institutionalization at earlier ages than will people with surviving adult children. 

One measure of the pressure the

sandwich generation may experience by caring for elderly parents is

the parent support ratio (PSR),

defined here as the number of people aged 80 and over per 100 people aged 50 to 64, which in a general sense relates the oldest old to

their offspring who were born when

U.S. Census Bureau An Aging World: 2001 79

1 It should be noted that the idea of a “sandwich generation” needs further empirical elucidation. Some researchers question the extent

to which middle generations actually provide

care for younger and older generations. One

study of 12 European Union countries (reported

in Hagestad, 2000) reports that only 4 percent

of men and 10 percent of women aged 45-54

have overlapping responsibilities for children

and for older persons who require care. The

importance of the “sandwich” concept in a

given society is likely to be determined, in part,

by the nature of formal institutions that provide

assistance to elderly individuals and to families

in general.

most of the oldest old were aged

20 to 35. Of course, people in the

numerator (80 and over) are not

necessarily in the same families as

those in the denominator (50 to 64

years). Thus, the PSR is only a

rough indication of need for family

support over time. 

Relatively few people aged 50 to 64

in 1950 worried about caring for

people aged 80 or older. In the

developed countries in this study,

the PSR ranged from five in Japan

and Hungary to eleven in Norway in

1950. In developing countries, the

PSR ranged from two in Bangladesh

to eleven in Tunisia and Uruguay.

Increases in the PSR since 1950

imply that a relatively larger share

of middle-aged adults now may

expect to provide care.

Additionally, life expectancy has

increased for the disabled, the mentally retarded, and the chronically

ill. Today’s care for older people

may be more physically and psychologically demanding than in the

past, especially with regard to the

increased numbers of people with

cognitive diseases. As advances in

medical technology affect the ability

to extend life, it is at least plausible

to expect the duration of chronic illness and the consequent need for

help to increase further, even if the

average age at onset of disability

rises. 

In all countries examined except

Bangladesh, Jamaica, Morocco, and

Pakistan, the PSR is projected to be

higher in 2030 than in 2000. The

ratio has and will evolve very differently within and among world

regions, however (Figure 8-6). In

South America, Eastern Asia, and

Western Europe, PSRs more than

doubled between 1950 and 2000.

PSRs will continue to rise between

2015 and 2030. In Western Africa,

most countries experienced little
change in the PSR from 1950 to

2000, and the aggregate level will

remain low in 2030 even though

absolute numbers of oldest-old peo

ple in some nations are growing

rapidly. The most pronounced

changes have occurred in the indus

trialized world. In 2000, the PSR

was 20 or higher in 12 such nation

(and also in Israel and Uruguay).

The difference in parent support

ratios between developed and

developing countries reflects different trends in fertility. In 2030,

those aged 50 to 64 (the potential

support givers) were born between

1966 and 1980. In most developing countries, fertility was still high

during this period, or just beginning to decline. Hence, this age

group will be fairly large, resulting

in low parent support ratios. In

developed countries, fertility was

fairly low during this period, producing small birth cohorts that will

result in higher parent support

ratios in 2030.

SPOUSE MAY BE MOST LIKELY

TO PROVIDE CARE FOR

ELDERLY

A clear cross-national picture of

caregiving for the elderly has yet to

emerge. In the 1980s, the stereotypical view of caregiving was that

of children caring for their aged

parent(s). More specifically, it generally was thought that adult

daughters and daughters-in-law pro

vided most of the personal care an

help with household tasks, transportation, and shopping for the elderly (United Nations, 1985).

Although this may still be the case,

increases in joint survival mean

that, for many older people in both

developing as well as developed

countries, the main person who

provides care is their spouse

(Shuman, 1994). One survey in

Spain found that 74 percent of

-

-

s

-

d

older men who were receiving

assistance with an instrumental

activity of daily living2 had their

wife as the caregiver. However,

only 33 percent of older women

relied on their husband as the caregiver, while 58 percent were aided

by a daughter (Beland and

Zunzunegui, 1996).

Whether in the role of spouse or

daughter, the fact remains that

women provide the bulk of informal

and/or long-term care for elderly

people worldwide. While joint survival increases the number of elderly couples, the average woman

eventually outlives her husband and

may have to rely on other family

members for personal care.3 Most

studies (see, for example, Jenson

and Jacobzone, 2000, and the compilation of research in Blieszner and

Bedford, 1996) have indicated that

these other family members are

women. Therefore, a variant of the

parent support ratio may be useful,

namely, the ratio of people aged 80

and over to women aged 50 to 64.

Changes in this parent support ratio

for females (PSRF) are similar to

those in the PSR, but the PSRF levels

are much higher. In 2000, the PSRF

was 54 in Norway and Sweden, the

highest level among the 52 study

nations. Most developed countries

had PSRF levels in the 30s and 40s,

while many developing nations had

PSRFs of 15 or less in 2000.

Projections for the year 2030 suggest that in Japan there will be 100

people aged 80 and over per 100

women aged 50 to 64, the highest

level among the 52 nations.

80 An Aging World: 2001 U.S. Census Bureau

2 Instrumental activities of daily living

include preparing meals, shopping for personal

items, managing money, using the telephone,

and doing light housework. 3 Although, in countries with relatively high

levels of income, market developments increasingly allow older individuals or their children to

purchase care services directly if desired.

FAMILY ABILITY TO CARE FOR

ELDERLY MEMBERS MAY BE

CHANGING

Living with other people reduces

the likelihood of using formal medical care and increases the use of

informal care, at least in the U.S.

context (Cafferata, 1988). Since

most physical, emotional, and economic care to older individuals is

provided by family members, the

demography of population aging is

increasingly concerned with understanding and modeling kin availability. Kin availability refers to the

number of family members who will

potentially be available to elderly

individuals if and when various

forms of care are needed. A study

by Tomassini and Wolf (2000) examined the effects of persistent low

fertility in Italy on shrinking kin networks for the period 1994-2050;

throughout the simulation period,

about 15-20 percent of Italian

women aged 25 to 45 are the only

living offspring of their surviving

mothers and thus are potentially

fully responsible for their mothers’

care. While reduced fertility and

smaller families obviously imply

fewer potential caregivers, this

effect is offset to some extent by

increased longevity. Modeling is

further complicated by the fact that

while demographic forces impose

constraints on family, household,

and kin structures, these structures

also are determined by social and

cultural factors that are difficult to

measure (Myers, 1992; Wolf, 1994;

Van Imhoff, 1999). 

Research is now addressing

whether the high rates of divorce

observed in some nations will result

in a lack of kin support for people

in older age, and whether “blended”

families and other forms of social

arrangements will, in the future,

provide the types of care and
support that are common today

(Wachter, 1998; Murphy, 2001).

The consensus to date foresees a

declining biological kinship support

network for elderly people in developed and many developing countries. Childlessness is another trait

that will affect the nature of future

caregiving. Data over time for the

United States in Figure 8-7 show the

increasing likelihood of being childless among women aged 40 to 44;

nearly one out of five such women

in 1998 had no children. Trends in

this characteristic could be an

important determinant of eventual

care arrangements as current and

future cohorts of middle-aged

women reach older age.

The issue of kin availability has

become especially important in the

context of East and Southeast Asian

countries, driven in large part by

the rapid declines in fertility that

have greatly reduced the average

family size of young-adult cohorts.

The complex interplay of demographic and cultural factors is illustrated by the case of the Republic

of Korea. There, two-thirds of the

elderly are economically dependent

on their adult children (Korea

Institute for Health and Social

Affairs, 1991), and cultural norms

dictate that sons provide economic

support for elderly women who

have lost their spouses. Lee and

Palloni (1992) have shown that

declining fertility means an increase

in the proportion of Korean women

with no surviving son (Figure 8-8).

At the same time, increased male

longevity means that the proportion

of elderly widows also will decline.

Thus from the elderly woman’s

point of view, family status may not

U.S. Census Bureau An Aging World: 2001 81

Figure 8-7.

Childlessness Among U.S. Women 40 to 44 Years 

Old: 1976 to 1998

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, June Current Population Surveys, 1976 to 1998. 

10 10

11

15

16

19

1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1998

(Percent)

Figure 8-8.

Percent of Women at Age 65 in South Korea 

With No Surviving Son: 1975 to 2025

Source: Lee and Palloni 1992. 

17

15 15

17

26

30

11

10 10

13

24

29

1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025

Married

Widowed
deteriorate significantly in the

coming years. From society’s perspective, however, the demand for

support of elderly women is likely

to increase. The momentum of

rapid population aging means that

the fraction of the overall population that is elderly women (especially sonless and childless widows)

will increase among successive

cohorts. Given the strong trend

toward nuclearization of family

structure in the Republic of Korea,

and the traditional absence of state

involvement in socioeconomic support, the future standard of living

for a growing number of elderly

widows is tenuous. A similar

prospect looms in Taiwan and Japan

(Hermalin, Ofstedal, and Chi, 1992;

Jordan, 1995). Simulations of kin

availability in rural China (Jiang,

1994) are more optimistic, suggesting that, in spite of relatively low

fertility, improvements in mortality

will ease the future burden on the

family support system. Only a very

small percentage of rural households will have to support two or

more elderly parents, and relatively

few elderly will be childless. At the

same time, simulations using family-status life table models developed by Zeng, Vaupel, and

Zhenglian (1997; 1998) suggest

that the family household structure

and living arrangements of Chinese

elders may change markedly during

the first half of this century; by

2050, the percentage of Chinese

elderly living alone could be 11 and

12 times larger in rural and urban

areas, respectively, than in 1990. 

HOME HELP SERVICES ARE

MOST PREVALENT IN

SCANDINAVIA

The previous chapter alluded to a

change in social and governmental

thinking about the desirability of

institutionalization. Some nations

now promote policies to maintain countries (Figure 8-9). Such

and support frail elderly people in services reached nearly one-fourth

their own homes and communities of all elderly in Finland in 1990, up

for as long as possible. Given the slightly from the level of 22 percent

changing nature of the family (in its in 1980. The available data sugmany perturbations) and patterns of gest that countries with more

kin availability, the development extensive provision of home help

and use of home help services services are those that have had a

would appear to be a reasonable prolonged process of population

step toward reducing the need for aging and now have relatively highinstitutionalization. To date, how- er proportions of oldest-old resiever, the use of home help appears dents (OECD, 1996). Structural proto be widespread only in grammatic factors also are

Scandinavian countries and the important, insofar as government

United Kingdom. Comparative data support or subsidization of home

assembled by the Organization for help will almost certainly result in

Economic Co-Operation and greater use. In the United States,

Development from the early-to-mid- the use of home health care servic1990s show that the proportion of es has grown substantially since the

elderly people receiving home help late 1980s, largely as a result of

exceeds 10 percent in only five changes in medicare policy that

82 An Aging World: 2001 U.S. Census Bureau

Figure 8-9.

Proportion of Elderly People Receiving Home 

Help Services: Early-to-Mid 1990s 

Note: Data for France, Australia, and Italy refer to 1985, 1988 and 1988, respectively. 

Source: OECD, 1996. 

(In percent)

Italy

New Zealand

Portugal

Spain

Canada

Japan

Germany

Ireland

Austria

United States

Belgium

Australia

France

Netherlands

United Kingdom

Sweden

Norway

Denmark

Finland

1

24

17

14

13

13

8

7

7

6

4

3

3

2

2

2

2

1

1
have made home health benefits

available to more beneficiaries for

longer periods of time. This in turn

has stimulated the home health

care industry; the number of home

health agencies more than tripled

between 1980 and 1994

(Freedman, 1999).

ELDERLY PROVIDE AS WELL AS

RECEIVE SUPPORT

Many elderly receive financial help

from adult children, but support is

not a one-way street. In countries

with well-established pension and

social security programs, many

older adults give support (including

financial help, shelter, childcare, and

the wisdom of experience) to their

adult children and grandchildren.

In the North American context,

studies suggest that elderly parents

are more likely to provide financial

help than to receive it (Soldo and

Hill, 1993; Rosenthal, MartinMatthews, and Matthews, 1996).

The elderly in developing countries

appear less likely than in developed

countries to provide financial help;

data from the Malaysian Family Life

Survey indicate that the main direction of monetary transfers between

noncoresident parents and children

is from the latter to the former

(Lillard and Willis, 1997). Ongoing

research in Asia is beginning to

reveal the complexity of familial

exchange, not just among parents

and children but among wider family and social networks as well

(Agree, Biddlecom, and Valente,

1999). Beyond the financial realm,

it seems clear that older persons in

developing countries make substantial contributions to family wellbeing, in ways ranging from socialization to housekeeping and child

care. Such activities free younger

adult women for employment in

unpaid family help in agricultural

production as well as paid employment (Hashimoto, 1991; Apt, 1992).

An important component of many

older people’s lives is their role as

the giver of care. Older people provide care for a variety of people

(spouses, older parents, siblings,

children, and grandchildren) and do

so for many reasons (illness of a

spouse or sibling, increased number

of single-parent families, increased

female labor force participation,

orphaned grandchildren). Often the

care provided by older family members is essential to the well-being of

a family.

THE IMPORTANCE OF

GRANDPARENTS

In some countries, nontrivial proportions of older women and men

are providing care to their grandchildren. This care ranges from

occasional babysitting to being a

custodial grandparent. Survey data

for the United States from the mid1990s (Fuller-Thomson and Minkler,

2001) indicate that 9 percent of all

Americans with grandchildren under

age 5 were providing extensive

caregiving.4 In 1997, 3.9 million

children (5.5 percent of all children

under age 18) lived in a household

maintained by their grandparents

(Casper and Bryson, 1998). Since

1990, the number of children living

in households headed by grandparents has increased, especially for

children in households with only

grandparents and grandchildren.

Trends in several factors (e.g.,

divorce, HIV/AIDS, drug abuse, and

child abuse) may have contributed

to the increase in these types of

families.

U.S. Census Bureau An Aging World: 2001 83

4 Extensive caregiving in this context meant

providing at least 30 hours of child care in an

average week and/or caring for grandchildren

for at least 90 nights in 1 year.

Grandparents in some developed

countries often provide day care for

children so the grandchildren’s parents can work or go to school. In

the United States in 1995, 29 percent of preschool children whose

parent(s) worked or were in school

were cared for by a grandparent

(Smith, 2000), typically the grandmother. Because of the lack of adequate day care in many Eastern

European countries and nations of

the former Soviet Union, the care

that grandmothers (babushkas) provide for grandchildren may be integral to family functioning.

In many Asian countries, where

coresidency is the norm, proportions of grandparents providing

care for grandchildren are substantial. In the Philippines, Thailand,

and Taiwan, approximately 40 percent of the population aged 50 and

older lived in a household with a

minor grandchild (under 18 years of

age). In these same countries,

approximately half or more of those

aged 50 and older who had a coresident grandchild aged 10 or

younger provided care for the child

(Hermalin, Roan, and Perez, 1998).

As in the United States, grandmothers are more likely than grandfathers in Asian countries to provide

care for their grandchildren (Chan,

1997; Uhlenberg, 1996).

Many grandparents find themselves

in the position of going beyond providing occasional care to becoming

the sole providers of care for their

grandchildren. One reason for this

situation is the migration of the

middle generation to urban areas to

work. Past research has found that

this is not unusual in AfroCaribbean countries (Sennott-Miller,

1989). These “skip-generation”

families are found in all regions of
the world and may be quite prevalent. One study in rural Zimbabwe

found that 35 percent of households were skip-generation households (Hashimoto, 1991).

THE HIV/AIDS EPIDEMIC IS

CHANGING GRANDPARENTS’

ROLES

The AIDS epidemic has affected the

number of grandparents who are

caring for grandchildren in many

countries of the world. The effects

of the epidemic are particularly

devastating in Sub-Saharan Africa,

where it is estimated that in 1999

8.6 percent of the population aged

15 to 49 was infected with an HIV

virus that causes AIDS. High rates

of adult infection and AIDS deaths

leave many children in need of

care. The cumulative number of

AIDS orphans5 in Sub-Saharan

84 An Aging World: 2001 U.S. Census Bureau

5 AIDS orphans are defined as HIV-negative

children who lost their mother or both parents

to AIDS when the children were under age 15.

Africa is estimated to be 12.1 million (UNAIDS/WHO 2000). For

many of these children, grandparents have become the main caregiver (Levine, Michaels, and Back,

1996). One study (Ryder et al.,

1994) in the city of Kinshasa found

that the principal guardian for 

35 percent of AIDS orphans was a

grandparent.
U.S. Census Bureau An Aging World: 2001 85

CHAPTER 9.

Educational Attainment

and Literacy

Educational attainment is linked to

many aspects of a person’s wellbeing. Research has shown that

higher levels of education usually

translate into better health status,

higher incomes, and consequently

higher standards of living (Guralnik

et al., 1993; Preston and Taubman,

1994; Smith and Kington, 1997; Liu,

Hermalin and Chuang, 1998).

People with higher educational levels tend to have lower mortality

rates and better overall health than

their less-educated counterparts (Elo

and Preston, 1996; Zimmer et al.,

1998), as well as better cognitive

functioning in older age (Stern and

Carstensen, 2000). Part of the reason for this finding is that moreeducated people tend to have higher

incomes throughout their lifetime,

which means they can afford better

health care than people with lower

levels of education. Higher working-life income also translates into

higher levels of retirement savings

and income. Hence, people with

higher educational levels may be

less dependent on their family for

financial assistance in later years.

Education significantly affects how

effectively people utilize health

care. In the United States, for

example, where educational levels

of the elderly are relatively high,

many older people, especially those

aged 85 and older, have trouble

understanding basic medical

instructions. Even something as

simple as taking medicine correctly

may be a problem. Education further affects health because welleducated people may be more

aware of the benefits and disadvan- implications for intergenerational

tages of certain types of behaviors solidarity (Choi, 1992).

associated with personal health. Educational attainment of the eld- Education also is related to joint erly varies substantially among the survival of spouses, to living countries in this report. The latest arrangements, and to changing data for the United States show value systems which have

Figure 9-1.

Percent of People With Completed 

Secondary Education or More 

Note: Data for Sweden 65+ refer to ages 65-74. 

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000a and national sources.

Sweden, 1998

Singapore, 1995

Russia, 1994

Romania, 1992

China, 1990

Bolivia, 1992

Brazil, 1991

United States, 1998

Male, 25-44 

Female, 25-44 

Male, 65+ 

Female, 65+

86.9

89.0

 67.6

66.6

21.6

23.9

6.6

4.9

17.2

12.8

4.7

2.3

20.4

13.4

2.8

0.5

94.6

92.1

45.5

31.9

87.3

91.9

31.8

21.6

64.0

61.3

15.2

5.4

79.6

82.5

44.0

 38.0
that two-thirds of all people aged

65 and older had completed at least

secondary education.1 Comparable

completion levels in other developed countries are somewhat lower.

Less than a third of the elderly in

Russia, for example, had finished

secondary-level education (Figure 

9-1). Levels of education of the elderly are much lower in developing

countries. In Brazil, Bolivia, and

China, less than 5 percent of the

elderly population had a completed

secondary education.

FUTURE ELDERLY WILL HAVE

MORE EDUCATION

During the twentieth century, educational attainment has increased

markedly in most countries of the

world. This improvement is clearly

reflected in the data on educational

attainment by age. In some developed countries, younger cohorts are

more than twice as likely as the elderly to have completed secondary

education. In developing countries,

the difference between younger and

older cohorts is even more striking.

Women aged 25 to 44 in Bolivia were

more than five times as likely as

women aged 65 and older to have a

completed secondary education.

The educational attainment of the

elderly has risen during the last

several decades in many countries,

and will continue to increase in the

future. For example, around 

27 percent of the elderly in the

United States had completed at

least secondary education in 1970;

by 1998 the percentage had

86 An Aging World: 2001 U.S. Census Bureau

1 Educational attainment in this report refers

in theory to completion of a particular educational level. Data have been derived from primary national tabulations as well as from figures reported to international organizations.

While large differences in educational attainment exist, at least some of the variation is likely due to different concepts, definitions, and

methods of data collection. We have attempted

to make the data on educational attainment in

this report as comparable as possible across

countries. 

Figure 9-2.

Percent of People With Completed 

University Level of Education: 1998 

Note: Percent for females aged 55-64 in Indonesia is zero. 

Source: Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development, 2001. 

Turkey

South Korea

Jordan

Indonesia

India

China

Brazil

Argentina

United States

Sweden

Portugal

Poland

Netherlands

Italy

Germany

Australia

Male, 35-44

Female, 35-44

Male, 55-64

Female, 55-64

1

19 

18

11

9

19

14

15

5

12

11

7

3

29

23

22

12

9

11

11

9

6

7

5

4

14

13

12

11

27

26

26

18

9

11

5

4

8

9

6

4

4

2

5

2

11

3

5

1

3

1

1

0

33

18

15

2

26

11

14

2

9

4

5

Developed countries

Developing countries
jumped to 67 percent. As younger, 5 to 25 percent in the developed

more-educated cohorts continue to countries and from 1 to 12 percent

age, their attainment levels will be in developing countries. Small proreflected in the educational status portions of women aged 55 to 64

of tomorrow’s elderly. in developed countries have a university education, and proportions

UNIVERSITY EDUCATION NOT in most developing countries are YET THE NORM AT ANY AGE smaller still.

Although educational attainment

has been improving throughout the LITERACY RATE OF MANY

ELDERLY POPULATIONS STILL twentieth century, university-level LOW education still is not widespread.

Relatively few people complete this In many developed countries, literalevel of education and the propor- cy data no longer are collected

tion is usually lowest among the because education, at least at the

elderly. In many developed coun- primary level, is so widespread that

tries, less than a third of people literacy is considered to be univeraged 35 to 44 have a university sal. However, this is not always the

education (OECD, 1998a; 2001). case for the elderly, particularly for

The proportion of the “near elderly” older women and the oldest old.

(i.e., aged 55 to 64) with this level Data from some countries that still

of education is even lower (Figure collect literacy information show

9-2). For the set of countries that substantial proportions of the

included in this graph, among men elderly may be unable to read and

aged 55 to 64, the proportion with write. In Greece, for example, only

a university education ranged from 77 percent of people aged 65 and

older were literate in 1991, and just

67 percent of the age group 75 and

over. Proportions literate among

older Greek women were even

lower — approximately two-thirds

of women aged 65 and older and

slightly over half of women aged 75

and older. 

In developing countries, literacy

may be uncommon among older

populations. Many of today’s elderly lived much of their lives prior to

the rapid increase in educational

attainment that occurred in the second half of the twentieth century.

Consequently, many older people,

and again particularly women, have

low levels of literacy. While cohort

changes ensure that the future education profile of the elderly will

improve, it is important to remember that in many countries, a majority of today’s elderly are illiterate

(Hugo, 1992). This fact needs to be

explicitly recognized and considered when developing programs to

assist older populations.

Figure 9-3 presents estimated literacy rates for the population aged 60

and over, by sex, in five developing

regions for 1980 and 1995.2 In all

five regions, older men are more literate than older women. In three of

the five regions, less than half of

older men and less than 15 percent

of older women were literate in

1995. Among developing regions,

Latin America and the Caribbean

has the highest aggregate literacy

levels for older populations; threequarters of men and two-thirds of

women aged 60 and over were literate, similar to the levels noted

above in Greece.

U.S. Census Bureau An Aging World: 2001 87

2 These estimates were produced by the

Division of Statistics of UNESCO using the most

recently available national data. For details

about the methodology used to produce these

estimates see UNESCO, 1995, Methodology

Used in the 1994 Estimates and Projections of

Adult Illiteracy, Statistical Issue STE-18, Division

of Statistics, Paris.

Figure 9-3.

Estimated Literacy Rates for Population Aged 60 and 

Over, by Sex, in Five Developing Regions: 1980 and 1995

Source: United Nations Educational Scientific and Cultural Organization, 1995. 

Southern Asia

Sub-Saharan Africa

Latin America/

Caribbean

Eastern Asia/Oceania

Arab States

(Percent literate)

1980

1995

M

F

M

F

M

F

M

F

M

F 13

26

36

6

11

40

64

9

27

68

75

58

68

21

34

9

14

33

41

8
Countries vary greatly in rates of literacy among the elderly. In Chile,

over 80 percent of the elderly were

literate in 1992, while in Uganda

less than a fifth of the elderly were

literate (Figure 9-4). In most countries, older men are much more

likely to be literate than older

women. In Brunei, older men were

four times as likely to be literate as

were older women. Although very

small proportions of the elderly

population are literate in many

developing countries, the rates rise

rapidly for younger cohorts. For all

the countries in Figure 9-4, with the

exception of women in Uganda,

well over half of the population

aged 25 to 44 were literate. And

among this younger age group, the

difference in literacy by sex tends

to dissipate.

GENDER DIFFERENTIAL IN

EDUCATIONAL LEVELS AMONG

THE ELDERLY IS OFTEN

SUBSTANTIAL

In nearly all countries, older men

have higher average levels of education than do older women. Just as

overall levels of education vary widely among countries, so does the gender difference in education at older

ages. The gender gap3 in educational attainment of the elderly is larger

in many developed countries than in

developing countries, where the

level of education for the elderly is

so low for both men and women

that the difference between them is

small. In many developed countries,

where overall attainment levels are

88 An Aging World: 2001 U.S. Census Bureau

3 The gender gap is defined as the absolute

difference in percentage points between the

educational level of men and women. For

instance, in Romania in 1992, 45.5 percent of

men and 31.9 percent of women aged 65 and

older had completed secondary or higher education. The gender gap for the population aged

65 and older with these levels of schooling

would be the difference between the two levels

(13.6 points).

Figure 9-4.

Percent Literate in Two Age Groups: 

Latest Available Year

Sources: United Nations Educational Scientific and Cultural Organization, 1995 and country sources.

65+

25-44

65+

25-44

65+

25-44

65+

25-44

65+

25-44

65+

25-44

65+

25-44

65+

25-44

65+

25-44

Male

Female

23.3

Bolivia, 1992

Botswana, 1993

Brunei, 1991

Chile, 1992

Iran, 1991

Jordan, 1994

Thailand, 1990

Uganda, 1991

Zimbabwe, 1992

91.9

76.6

53.8

28.3

70.2

75.2

12.9

11.3

96.0

91.1

45.1

10.6

96.6

96.9

81.3

80.9

79.4

56.1

31.3

14.0

96.6

86.9

51.0

16.9

97.3

95.4

76.3

53.2

73.0

44.0

26.7

7.2

89.5

74.5

41.0
higher, the difference between older older cohorts. In various counmen and women is larger. tries, younger women complete

secondary education at higher As suggested by the data on litera- rates than do men, and in some cy discussed earlier, gender differ- nations the gender difference in ences in educational attainment university-level attainment at are much smaller for younger than younger ages is negligible. Thus,

the disadvantages that today’s

older women may face because of

their lower levels of education relative to men should begin to abate

when these younger cohorts reach

the ranks of the elderly.

GENDER GAP IS INVERSELY

RELATED TO AGE AT OLDER

AGES

Examining the gender gap by age in

developing countries reveals the

differential rate of improvement in

educational attainment. Figure 9-5

presents the gender gap in literacy

rates for five age groups in several

countries with data from the 1990s.

A somewhat counter-intuitive picture emerges for the three older age

groups, namely, that the gender

gap decreases as age increases. In

other words, there is a larger

absolute difference between male

and female literacy rates at ages 55

to 59 than among people aged 65

and over. The increase in the gender gap for younger-old age groups

reflects historical patterns of educational promotion. When countries

with low overall levels of education

and limited resources began to

improve the educational attainment

of their populations, the initial

focus was more on educating males

than females. In most developing

countries, people aged 55 and over

were of school age when formal

education was not widespread.

Although educational attainment

was improving, it was improving

more for men than for women.

Thus, for these older age groups,

the gender gap is less among the

elderly than among people aged 55

to 64. For some countries in Figure

9-5, the gender gap at ages 25 to

29 and 35 to 39 is smaller than at

the older ages, indicating a more

equal inclusion of both sexes in

educational programs in recent

years. 

U.S. Census Bureau An Aging World: 2001 89

Figure 9-5.

Gender Gap in Literacy Rates for Selected 

Age Groups: Latest Available Year

Note: The gender gap is defined as the absolute difference in percentage points between the literacy rate for 

men and women.

Source: United Nations Educational Scientific and Cultural Organization, 1995 and country sources. 

65+

60-64

55-59

35-39

25-29

65+

60-64

55-59

35-39

25-29

65+

60-64

55-59

35-39

25-29

65+

60-64

55-59

35-39

25-29

65+

60-64

55-59

35-39

25-29

65+

60-64

55-59

35-39

25-29

Bolivia, 1992

Brunei, 1991

Iran, 1991

Jordan, 1994

Uganda, 1991

Yemen, 1994

19.4

9.1

18.6

32.9

31.6

25.5

0.9

6.4

48.0

43.7

34.5

18.9

26.5

23.4

19.7

17.3

3.9

13.9

47.3

44.8

34.1

23.9

32.5

35.4

27.3

19.5

48.5

37.8

28.7

21.6
EDUCATIONAL DISADVANTAGE

IS COMMON IN RURAL AREAS

The quality and quantity of rural

educational facilities in most

nations tend to be inferior to those

in urban areas. Consequently, literacy levels and educational attainment are lower in rural areas, particularly in developing countries.

Data for Yemen (Figure 9-6) illustrate the common pattern wherein

the rural disadvantage in literacy is

evident for both sexes (i.e., rural

males have lower rates than urban

males and rural females have lower

rates than urban females). It

appears that differences by gender

are greater than differences by

urban/rural residence. Urban

women have lower literacy rates

than rural men, except at the very

youngest ages. The sexes also differ in size of the rural/urban gap by

age. Rural males consistently have

lower literacy rates than urban

90 An Aging World: 2001 U.S. Census Bureau

Figure 9-6.

Percent Literate by Age, Sex, and Urban and 

Rural Residence, Yemen: 1994

Source: Population and Housing Census of Yemen, 1994. 

0

20

40

60

80

100

75+70656055504540353025201510

Percent 

Age

Female rural

Male urban

Male rural

Female urban

Table 9-1.

Earnings Ratios of Selected Age Groups in 15 Countries by Level of Educational

Attainment: 1995

Country

45-54 years/25-29 years 55-64 years/

45-54 years

Less than upper

secondary

Upper Nonuniversity

secondary tertiary University Overall

Australia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Denmark . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Finland. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

France . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Germany . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Ireland . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Mexico . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Norway . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Sweden . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Switzerland . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

United Kingdom . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

United States . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

1.30

1.05

1.21

1.43

1.18

0.97

1.24

1.23

1.13

1.25

1.10

1.38

1.06

0.93

1.29

1.26

1.46

1.23

1.36

1.47

1.28

1.59

1.44

1.61

1.39

1.26

1.26

1.25

1.09

1.28

1.35

1.37

1.29

1.69

1.45

1.10

1.59

1.64

1.33

1.16

1.88

1.67

1.52

1.41

1.39

2.06

1.96

1.60

2.11

1.95

1.76

2.25

1.99

1.65

1.93

1.67

1.70

1.80

1.50

1.67

0.85

0.86

0.92

0.90

1.07

0.97

(NA)

0.86

0.84

0.95

(NA)

0.90

0.97

0.81

0.89

NA Not available.

Note: Ratios reflect gross annual earnings before taxes. Data for Finland and Ireland refer to 1994 and 1993 respectively.

Source: Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development (Employment Outlook 1998).
males in Yemen, and the gap reading skills generally worsen with labor force entrants (25 to 29 years)

between the two areas is fairly even age; a recent study also demon- generally rises with educational

across the age spectrum. For strated that functional health attainment level, but the right-hand

women, on the other hand, the gap literacy is markedly lower at older column of Table 9-1 indicates an

between rural and urban literacy ages, even after controlling for vari- overall decline in earnings of people

levels is much wider at the younger ables such as cognitive dysfunction, 55 to 64 relative to people 45 to

than the older ages, suggesting that physical functioning and visual acu- 54. Because educational attainment

in recent years urban women have ity (Baker et al., 2000). This study may be very different by age

been afforded greater relative raises questions about the effects of cohort, this table may confound

access to education than have their life-long education, the efficacy of pure age effects with returns to

rural counterparts. tests that measure cognitive ability, education. Further analysis of availand other age-related changes that able data suggests that, when averEDUCATION AFFECTS OTHER may affect testing procedures. aged over all countries, the earn- DIMENSIONS OF LIFE ings premium of peak-earning Table 9-1 shows ratios of average As mentioned earlier, education is workers relative to recent entrants earnings for workers in three age related to health behavior and rises considerably with higher edu- groups. The earnings ratio of per- income accumulation throughout cational attainment (OECD, 1998 sons in the so-called peak earning the life course. Studies in the Employment Outlook). years (45 to 54) to those of recent United States have shown that

U.S. Census Bureau An Aging World: 2001 91
U.S. Census Bureau An Aging World: 2001 93

CHAPTER 10.

Labor Force Participation

and Retirement

Rapid growth of elderly populations

may put pressure on a nation’s

financial resources. This concern is

based, at least partially, on the

assumption that the elderly do not

contribute to the economy. However,

many older people do work, and

examining the labor force participation and characteristics of older

workers gives a clearer picture of

their contribution. Information on

older workers also is useful in planning economic development and the

financing of retirement.

Some characteristics of older workers seem not to vary among countries. In all countries, the elderly

account for a small proportion of

the overall labor force. Their share

of the total labor force in the study

countries ranges from less than 

1 percent to 7 percent. A second

commonality is that labor force participation declines as people near

retirement age. A third is that participation rates are higher for older

men than for older women.

Other characteristics of older workers show interesting differences

across countries. The rate of

participation of older workers varies

substantially, and generally is lower

in developed than in developing

countries. Only 2 percent of men

aged 65 and over participate in the

labor force in some developed

countries, whereas in certain developing countries well over half of

elderly men are economically active.

The occupational concentration of

older workers also varies widely

among countries. 

Figure 10-1 presents data on formal with age. On the other hand, the

economic activity for older women work status of older workers differs

and men in three countries, chosen dramatically among the countries.

to represent different levels of eco- In Rwanda, more than threenomic development. Some of the quarters of all women aged 60 to

patterns mentioned above are 64 are economically active, and

apparent in these data; older even at ages 70 and older, a subwomen have lower participation stantial number remain active in the

rates than older men, and participa- labor force. In contrast, although a

tion rates for both sexes decrease nontrivial proportion of women

Figure 10-1.

Economically Active Older Population by Age for 

Rwanda, Peru, and New Zealand: Late 1990s

Source: International Labour Office (various issues of the Yearbook of Labour Statistics). 

75+

70-74

65-69

60-64

75+

70-74

65-69

60-64

75+

70-74

65-69

60-64

Male

Female

Rwanda, 1996

New Zealand, 1999

Peru, 1999

1.1

86.9

77.8

81.5

73.4

66.0

51.7

45.6

32.5

72.5

38.2

56.3

23.4

46.2

26.2

29.0

11.1

57.5

32.5

20.4

10.0

8.8

2.9

2.8

(Percent)
aged 60 to 64 are economically

active in New Zealand, participation

rates decrease dramatically with

age so that for women aged 70 to

74, less than 3 percent are still

active. Cross-national differences in

levels of labor force activity are

associated with societal wealth;

countries with high GNP (gross

national product) tend to have

much lower labor force participation rates of the elderly and near

elderly than do low-income countries (Clark, York, and Anker, 1997).

In richer countries, the elderly or

near elderly can afford to retire

because of pension schemes or

social security systems. These programs are often lacking in poorer

countries.

94 An Aging World: 2001 U.S. Census Bureau

Figure 10-2a.

Labor Force Participation Rates for Men Aged 55 

to 59 in Developed Countries

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000a and International Labour Office (various issues of the 

Yearbook of Labour Statistics). 

United States

Sweden

Poland

New Zealand

Luxembourg

Japan

Italy

Hungary

Germany

France

Czech Republic

Canada

Bulgaria

Belgium

Austria

Australia

Early 1970s 

Late 1990s

78.4

88.4

72.5

83.7

63.7

82.3

52.4

86.5

58.0

84.9

72.2

85.0

77.1

81.8

70.4

86.8

76.5

84.4

45.9

75.0

54.1

94.2

94.7

79.3

53.4

92.1

81.2

90.9

55.2

88.4

84.4

86.8

(Percent)
TIME TREND IN LABOR FORCE

PARTICIPATION DIFFERS BY

GENDER

The trend in most developed countries has been for labor force

participation rates for older men to

decline in recent decades. Figure

10-2 shows male labor force participation rates for three older age

groups in 16 developed countries;

in all of these countries, participation rates declined between the

early 1970s and the late 1990s.

These declines are particularly pronounced for men aged 60 to 64.

In ten of the sixteen countries in

the early 1970s, well over half of

men aged 60 to 64 were still active.

U.S. Census Bureau An Aging World: 2001 95

Figure 10-2b.

Labor Force Participation Rates for Men Aged 

60 to 64 in Developed Countries

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000a and International Labour Office (various issues of the 

Yearbook of Labour Statistics). 

United States

Sweden

Poland

New Zealand

Luxembourg

Japan

Italy

Hungary

Germany

France

Czech Republic

Canada

Bulgaria

Belgium

Austria

Australia

Early 1970s 

Late 1990s

(Percent)

54.8

75.6

46.7

44.9

16.7

79.3

18.6

33.6

11.1

74.1

46.6

33.3

27.5

54.6

16.4

68.8

30.3

43.7

10.6

40.6

31.7

85.8

74.1

45.5

15.5

69.2

57.4

83.0

33.4

75.7

55.5

73.0
In the remaining six countries activity rates ranged from 33 percent to

46 percent. By the late 1990s, only

Japan, New Zealand, Sweden, and

the United States had male participation rates over 50 percent. Rates

also have fallen for the 65-and-over

age group.1 In the early 1970s,

only two countries in Figure 10-2

had participation rates lower than

10 percent for elderly men; by the

late 1990s, most of the countries

had rates less than 10 percent. But

as discussed later in this chapter,

the trend in declining participation

rates for older men has stopped or

even reversed in a number of developed countries.

96 An Aging World: 2001 U.S. Census Bureau

1 In the United States, much of the decline in

labor force participation rates for elderly men

occurred earlier in the twentieth century.

According to Costa (1998), 70 percent of the

decline in participation rates between 1880 and

1990 for men aged 65 and older occurred

before 1960.

Figure 10-2c.

Labor Force Participation Rates for Men 

Aged 65+ in Developed Countries

Note: Later data for Belgium 65+ refer to ages 65-69 and for Hungary to ages 65-74; data for Sweden 

65+ are not reported by the ILO. 

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000a and International Labour Office (various issues of the 

Yearbook of Labour Statistics). 

United States

Sweden

Poland

New Zealand

Luxembourg

Japan

Italy

Hungary

Germany

France

Czech Republic

Canada

Bulgaria

Belgium

Austria

Australia

Early 1970s 

Late 1990s

(Percent)

16.9

22.2

9.6

8.0

4.6

6.8

2.8

10.3

4.5

23.6

9.9

14.6

7.2

10.7

2.3

16.0

4.5

16.7

3.8

13.4

6.3

54.5

35.5

10.1

1.9

21.3

10.4

56.4

15.3

15.2

24.8
The trend for older women in these

developed countries differs from

the male pattern. In many countries, female participation rates

have increased for almost all adult

age groups up to age 60, whereas

rates for elderly women have

declined (Figure 10-3). In some

cases, the increase among women

aged 55 to 59 has been quite

marked. In New Zealand, for example, 60 percent of women aged 55

to 59 were economically active in

1998, up from 28 percent in 1971.

U.S. Census Bureau An Aging World: 2001 97

Figure 10-3a.

Labor Force Participation Rates for Women 

Aged 55 to 59 in Developed Countries 

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000a and International Labour Office (various issues of the 

Yearbook of Labour Statistics). 

United States

Sweden

Poland

New Zealand

Luxembourg

Japan

Italy

Hungary

Germany

France

Czech Republic

Canada

Bulgaria

Belgium

Austria

Australia

Early 1970s 

Late 1990s

(Percent)

61.8

28.3

44.6

35.8

25.4

20.0

27.6

26.1

10.7

38.7

50.6

36.5

33.2

42.1

51.7

34.5

55.3

29.2

16.6

16.9

22.7

53.8

58.7

18.6

24.6

27.5

60.1

68.1

35.0

41.1

79.0

47.4
While female participation was

increasing at younger ages, nearly

all developed countries experienced

a decrease in elderly female labor

force participation between the

early 1970s and the late 1990s.

Very small proportions of elderly

women currently are economically

active in developed nations; among

the 22 developed countries in

Appendix A, Table 10, only Japan,

Poland, and the United States have

elderly female participation rates

above 4 percent.2

98 An Aging World: 2001 U.S. Census Bureau

2 Rates for Norway and Ukraine in Appendix

Table 10 are about 9 percent, but these refer to

only a portion of their elderly female populations, i.e., women aged 65 to 74.

Figure 10-3b.

Labor Force Participation Rates for Women 

Aged 60 to 64 in Developed Countries

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000a and International Labour Office (various issues of the 

Yearbook of Labour Statistics). 

United States

Sweden

Poland

New Zealand

Luxembourg

Japan

Italy

Hungary

Germany

France

Czech Republic

Canada

Bulgaria

Belgium

Austria

Australia

Early 1970s 

Late 1990s

(Percent)

38.8

16.0

18.3

13.2

8.7

7.6

6.7

8.2

4.7

29.1

26.0

18.2

12.9

27.9

15.2

17.7

12.7

17.1

5.5

9.9

8.1

43.3

39.8

12.0

11.7

15.5

32.5

51.1

19.2

25.7

46.5

36.1
WHY THE BIG DECREASE FOR

OLDER MEN?

Several reasons may account for the

sharp decline in activity rates of

older men in developed countries.

An increase in societal wealth is

most likely the main reason for the

drop in participation rates. A secondary reason may be that new

technologies have changed the

industrial and occupational organization of many economies, and

generated the need for a recently

trained labor force. New technologies can make the skills of older

workers obsolete and these workers

may choose to retire rather than

learn new skills (Ahituv and Zeira,

2000; Bartel and Sicherman, 1993).

In countries with persistently high

levels of unemployment, there may

be formal and informal pressures

on older workers to leave the labor

force to make room for younger

workers. Perhaps most importantly,

the growth and proliferation of

financial incentives for early retirement have enabled many older

workers to afford to stop working.

In much of Eastern Europe and the

former Soviet Union, older workers

are choosing early retirement over

unemployment as new market

mechanisms prompt firms to fire

redundant workers (Commander

and Yemtsov, 1997).

U.S. Census Bureau An Aging World: 2001 99

Figure 10-3c.

Labor Force Participation Rates for Women 

Aged 65+ in Developed Countries

Note: Later data for Belgium 65+ refer to ages 65-69 and for Hungary to ages 65-74; data for Sweden 

65+ are not reported by the ILO. 

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000a and International Labour Office (various issues of the 

Yearbook of Labour Statistics). 

United States

Sweden

Poland

New Zealand

Luxembourg

Japan

Italy

Hungary

Germany

France

Czech Republic

Canada

Bulgaria

Belgium

Austria

Australia

Early 1970s 

Late 1990s

(Percent)

8.9

4.2

3.1

3.2

2.0

2.2

0.8

1.7

2.1

8.3

3.4

5.2

2.7

5.0

2.0

5.7

1.6

5.8

1.6

3.2

1.7

19.7

14.9

4.0

0.6

3.5

3.9

33.0

8.5

3.2

10.0
ELDERLY IN DEVELOPING

COUNTRIES HAVE HIGH

PARTICIPATION RATES

The proportion of economically

active elderly men is high in developing countries compared with

more-industrialized nations. Not

surprisingly, many elderly people in

predominantly rural agrarian societies work of necessity, while

“retirement” may be a luxury

reserved for urban elites. In nations

as diverse as Bangladesh,

Indonesia, Jamaica, Mexico,

Pakistan, and Zimbabwe, more than

50 percent of all elderly men are

considered to be economically

active. Economic activity rates of

older and elderly women also are

higher in developing than in developed countries. Some national data

may understate the true economic

activity of women, particularly in

developing countries where much

of the work that women engage in

is not counted or captured in censuses and labor force surveys, or is

not considered to be “economic.”

Many of the activities that older

women are involved in, such as

subsistence agriculture or household industries, often are not well

documented by conventional data

collection methods (Hedman,

Perucci, and Sundström, 1996).

100 An Aging World: 2001 U.S. Census Bureau

Figure 10-4a.

Labor Force Participation Rates for Men Aged 55 

to 59 in Developing Countries

Note: Data for Ethiopia in the early 1970s are not available. 

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000a and International Labour Office (various issues of the 

Yearbook of Labour Statistics). 

Uruguay

Turkey

Tunisia

South Korea

Singapore

Peru

Mexico

Ethiopia

Chile

Argentina

Early 1970s 

Late 1990s

(Percent)

89.3

80.4

82.8

82.6

83.4

93.3

86.2

86.8

92.8

85.6

73.9

77.9

85.4

81.0

86.0

78.4

88.0

60.3

81.2

Figure 10-4b.

Labor Force Participation Rates for Men Aged 60 

to 64 in Developing Countries

Note: Data for Ethiopia in the early 1970s are not available. 

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000a and International Labour Office (various issues of the 

Yearbook of Labour Statistics). 

Uruguay

Turkey

Tunisia

South Korea

Singapore

Peru

Mexico

Ethiopia

Chile

Argentina

Early 1970s 

Late 1990s

(Percent)

59.3

57.2

63.2

72.1

69.2

89.4

81.5

77.3

83.9

72.5

55.6

48.6

67.9

65.5

66.5

54.1

83.0

54.0

58.9
Data on economic activity rates

over time for developing countries

do not show as clear a trend for

older workers as seen in developed

countries. Although many developing countries have experienced

a decrease in economic activity of

older male workers, in most such

countries the decrease is much

smaller than in developed countries (Figure 10-4). Akin to the pattern in developed countries, many

developing countries have witnessed an increase in labor force

participation rates for women aged

55 to 64 (Figure 10-5). Unlike the

pattern in developed nations, several developing countries also have

experienced increases in participation for women aged 65 and older.

Because of the problems with statistics on female economic activity

mentioned above, these changes

could reflect “real” increases in

activity rates as well as improvements in data collection. 

U.S. Census Bureau An Aging World: 2001 101

Figure 10-4c.

Labor Force Participation Rates for Men 

Aged 65+ in Developing Countries

Note: Data for Ethiopia in the early 1970s are not available. 

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000a and International Labour Office (various issues of the 

Yearbook of Labour Statistics). 

Uruguay

Turkey

Tunisia

South Korea

Singapore

Peru

Mexico

Ethiopia

Chile

Argentina

Early 1970s 

Late 1990s

(Percent)

19.4

29.1

27.6

42.4

27.4

65.7

67.1

52.4

61.5

41.1

31.9

21.7

35.1

40.2

38.0

34.0

67.8

33.6

20.9

Figure 10-5a.

Labor Force Participation Rates for Women Aged 55 

to 59 in Developing Countries

Note: Data for Ethiopia in the early 1970s are not available. 

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000a and International Labour Office (various issues of the 

Yearbook of Labour Statistics). 

Uruguay

Turkey

Tunisia

South Korea

Singapore

Peru

Mexico

Ethiopia

Chile

Argentina

Early 1970s 

Late 1990s

(Percent)

41.0

16.2

35.4

15.5

32.4

58.6

15.4

32.4

16.1

47.5

16.2

28.4

39.1

51.2

11.3

12.2

50.0

30.4

21.7
AGRICULTURE STILL

IMPORTANT SOURCE OF

EMPLOYMENT FOR ELDERLY

Just as labor force participation

rates of older workers vary among

countries, so do levels of concentration in various occupations.

Economies in developed countries

have shifted from agriculture and

heavy industries toward services

and light industries, which is a shift

from physically demanding and

sometimes hazardous jobs to work

which requires less brawn and different technical skills. This shift

may benefit older workers insofar

as jobs requiring mental ability

rather than physical strength may

enable them to remain active

longer. Conversely, the shift could

be detrimental to older workers if

the new jobs require skills or training which older workers may not

have or easily acquire. 

102 An Aging World: 2001 U.S. Census Bureau

Figure 10-5b.

Labor Force Participation Rates for Women 

Aged 60 to 64 in Developing Countries

Note: Data for Ethiopia in the early 1970s are not available. 

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000a and International Labour Office (various issues of the 

Yearbook of Labour Statistics). 

Uruguay

Turkey

Tunisia

South Korea

Singapore

Peru

Mexico

Ethiopia

Chile

Argentina

Early 1970s 

Late 1990s

(Percent)

23.9

10.3

22.6

11.1

21.0

50.0

14.4

25.9

13.4

38.2

13.4

14.9

26.9

46.3

8.6

7.7

47.6

23.4

12.2

Figure 10-5c.

Labor Force Participation Rates for Women 

Aged 65+ in Developing Countries

Note: Data for Ethiopia in the early 1970s are not available. 

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000a and International Labour Office (various issues of the 

Yearbook of Labour Statistics). 

Uruguay

Turkey

Tunisia

South Korea

Singapore

Peru

Mexico

Ethiopia

Chile

Argentina

Early 1970s 

Late 1990s

(Percent)

6.7

4.7

8.9

6.5

6.5

27.5

11.8

14.6

8.5

19.2

6.5

5.2

10.6

21.4

4.8

3.5

35.1

13.3

3.6
Not surprisingly, agriculture is by

far the most common occupation

for older and elderly workers in

most developing countries (Figure

10-6). And despite the worldwide

trend away from employment in

agriculture, this sector was still an

important source of employment in

many developed countries during

the 1970s and 1980s. Even in the

1990s, a nontrivial proportion of

economically active elderly in some

developed countries worked in the

agricultural sector. In 1995 in

Japan, 31 percent of elderly men

and 35 percent of elderly women

were involved in agriculture.

Aggregate data from the early

1990s for 12 European Union

nations showed that agriculture

U.S. Census Bureau An Aging World: 2001 103

Figure 10-6.

Percent of Elderly Workers in Agriculture

Note: Data for New Zealand refer to ages 60 and over. 

Source: National sources. 

United States, 1998

Turkey, 1990

Philippines, 1990

New Zealand, 1991

Japan, 1995

Ecuador, 1990

China, 1990

Male

Female

3.2

88.3

93.2

57.0

30.0

30.7

34.7

21.2

15.3

76.4

32.2

75.7

95.6

11.4

Table 10-1.

Older Workers (55 and Over) per 100 Younger Workers (Under 55) in Selected Job

Sectors: 1998

Goods-producing sector Service sector

Agriculture,

hunting and Manu- Personal Social

Total forestry facturing Total services services

OECD average 15 39 10 12 11 12

Austria . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 28 6 7 7 7

Belgium . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 21 5 7 8 7

Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 27 10 10 9 10

Czech Republic . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 12 9 10 9 13

Denmark . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 34 11 12 15 13

Finland. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 24 9 9 8 10

France . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 20 6 8 10 8

Germany . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 30 14 15 16 16

Greece. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31 68 11 11 12 9

Ireland . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 45 7 10 10 13

Italy. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 33 8 13 12 13

Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30 131 8 13 (NA) (NA)

Luxembourg . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 19 6 7 5 10

Mexico . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 28 8 11 13 7

Netherlands . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 21 8 7 6 8

New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 26 7 7 - 8

Norway . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 36 16 15 9 18

Portugal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26 112 10 15 18 12

Spain . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 36 11 12 14 13

Sweden . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20 50 17 19 15 21

Switzerland . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20 39 18 17 20 18

United Kingdom . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 32 14 13 14 14

United States . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 25 13 15 11 16

- Represents zero. NA Not available.

Source: Excerpted from Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development (Employment Outlook 2000).
continued to employ a disproportionate share of older relative to

younger workers (Eurostat, 1993a).

More than 20 percent of economically active men and women aged

60 and older in these countries

worked in agriculture compared

with about 5 percent of people

aged 14 to 59. More recent information for 23 OECD countries

shows that the ratio of older (55+)

to nonolder (54 and under) workers

is generally much higher in agriculture, hunting, and forestry than in

any other goods-producing or service sector (Table 10-1).

NEARLY TWO-THIRDS OF

ELDERLY FEMALE U.S.

WORKERS IN SERVICE AND

SALES

Figure 10-7, which presents the

occupational distribution of elderly

male and female workers in the

United States, shows distinct differences by gender. In 1998, almost

half of elderly working women were

employed in clerical or service jobs

compared with only 17 percent of

elderly men. A majority of working

elderly men held either managerial/professional/technical positions

(34 percent) or production jobs 

(23 percent). Corresponding figures

for elderly women were 25 percent

and 8 percent. Unlike the situation

in some developed countries, only

11 and 3 percent of active elderly

U.S. men and women, respectively,

worked in agriculture.

BRIDGES TO RETIREMENT

Just as the propensity to work at

older ages varies considerably from

country to country, so too do patterns of retirement and the concept 

of retirement itself. During periods OLDER WOMEN MORE LIKELY

of economic contraction in highly THAN OLDER MEN TO WORK

PART TIME industrialized nations, governments

may actively encourage older work- Some older workers use part-time

ers to cease active employment at work as a gradual transition to

relatively young ages. On the other retirement (Walker, 1999). Part-time

hand, when the labor market is work is an option that may appeal

tight, governments may look for to older workers by enabling them

methods to entice older workers to to remain active in the labor force

remain in the labor force or re-enter while also pursuing leisure activities

the labor force. (Quinn and Kozy, 1996). Data for

working men aged 60-64 in nine In developed countries, retirement developed countries show large dif- from the workforce was an event ferences in the prevalence of part- that occurred almost exclusively at time employment, ranging from a regulated age until the 1950s, less than 8 percent in Italy and with little possibility of receiving a Germany to more than 35 percent pension prior to that age (Tracy, in Sweden and the Netherlands 1979). Since then, countries have (OECD, 2000). Available data from adopted a wide range of approach- developed countries suggest that es to providing old-age security, older working women are much and different potential routes have more likely than older men to be emerged for people making the involved in part-time work (Figure transition from labor force participa- 10-8). In Australia, three-fourths of tion to retirement. Some of these elderly women who were economi- different routes are working part cally active in 1999 worked part time, leaving career jobs for transi- time, compared to fewer than half tion jobs, or leaving the labor force of economically active elderly men. because of a disability. 

104 An Aging World: 2001 U.S. Census Bureau

Figure 10-7.

Percent Distribution of Elderly Workers by 

Occupation in the United States: 1998

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, unpublished tabulations from the Current Population Survey, 

average annual data, 1998. 

Agriculture

Production

Clerical/Service

Sales

Managerial/

Professional/

Technical

Male

Female

3.2

33.8

24.7

14.8

16.7

16.9

47.8

23.2

7.6

11.4
In the 15 European Union countries gradual retirement is still relatively

as a whole, 41 percent of working uncommon in industrialized nations.

women aged 55-64 were in part- The strongest tendency toward parttime positions in 1998, compared time work was seen in Japan,

with just 8 percent of working men Sweden, and the United States. 

in that age group (Eurostat, 2000).

UNEMPLOYMENT LOW AMONG 

The rate of part-time work for peo- THE ELDERLY

ple nearing retirement generally was The elderly typically have low lev- increasing with time in the late els of unemployment compared to 1980s/early 1990s (Eurostat, younger workers. In developed 1993b). Even though percentages countries, unemployment rates for of older workers who work part the elderly frequently are less than time may be substantial, a recent 5 percent (OECD Labour Force OECD (2000) analysis notes that Statistics, 2000). However, people these percentages often represent aged 55 to 64 often have unem- only a small fraction of the total ployment rates higher than or simi- older population, since many people lar to rates for people aged 25 to have retired by age 60. Looking at 54 (Figure 10-9). Establishing a older male cohorts as they aged in time trend in unemployment rates the 1990s, the study concludes that for older people is hindered by

data availability, the effects of the

business cycle, and differences in

definitions across countries.3 In

countries with available data,

unemployment rates for all age

groups commonly were higher in

1999 than in 1980. Gender differences in unemployment rates at

older ages are not consistent; in

some countries, men have higher

rates and in others the reverse is

true. When unemployment rates

for ages 55 to 64 are disaggregated, rates for the age group 55 to

59 tend to be somewhat higher

than for the age group 60 to 64,

perhaps because people in the

older age group may opt to retire if

possible rather than be unemployed.

Although the unemployment rate

may be lower for older than for

younger workers, older people who

are unemployed tend to remain

unemployed longer than their

younger counterparts. In several

OECD countries, well over half of

unemployed people aged 55 and

over had been unemployed continuously for more than 1 year. In most

OECD countries, the proportion of

long-term unemployed people aged

55 and older is much higher than

among younger age groups. A similar pattern is seen in some Eastern

European nations. In Bulgaria in

1995, 74 percent of unemployed

men aged 50 to 59 and 78 percent

of unemployed women aged 50 to

54 had been without work for more

than 1 year (European Commission,

1995). 

U.S. Census Bureau An Aging World: 2001 105

3 And, in many developing countries, the

lack of programs to provide monetary support

during unemployment means that most people

cannot “afford” to be unemployed.

Figure 10-8.

Percent of Economically Active Elderly Population 

Working Part Time in Australia, 

Canada, and France

Note: Data for France refer to ages 60 and over. 

Source: National sources. 

74.2

53.2

38.6

44.1

33.2

20.7

Australia 1999 Canada 1991 France 1995

Male

Female
106 An Aging World: 2001 U.S. Census Bureau

Figure 10-9.

Unemployment for Three Age Groups: 1980, 1990, and 1999

Notes: Unemployment rates for people aged 65+ in Canada, Germany, Japan, and Sweden were reported to be zero in certain years. 

Latest data for Canada refer to 1998. 1980 data for Germany refer to West Germany. 

Source: Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development, 2000 (Labor Force Statistics 1979-1999).

Male Female

1980 

1990 

1999

7.2 7.0

2.7

6.9 6.7

2.9

7.2

6.2

1.5

7.6

5.7 5.1

4.4

1.8

6.8

5.1

25-54 55-64 65+ 25-54 55-64 65+

(Percent)

Canada

Male Female

Male Female Male Female

Male Female Male Female

7.3

12.8

0.8

8.7

15.5

2.2

3.6

6.5

0.4

5.8

8.1

0.6

2.0

4.9

3.8

5.9

25-54 55-64 65+ 25-54 55-64 65+

Germany

3.0 2.7 3.0 3.4

2.6

3.2

4.6

3.8

3.0

4.6

2.8 3.1

5.1

3.4 3.1

6.0

3.3 3.1

25-54 55-64 65+ 25-54 55-64 65+

United States

6.5

7.3

5.9 5.9

1.3 1.3 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.6 1.3 1.6 1.7 1.7

25-54 55-64 65+ 25-54 55-64 65+

Sweden

3.7

6.7

2.9

4.4

3.3

0.5

1.4

3.4

1.4

2.1

1.5 1.4

3.7

2.2 2.0

1.2

25-54 55-64 65+ 25-54 55-64 65+

Japan

9.0 8.7

1.9

12.6

8.7

1.5

5.9 6.0

0.5

10.7

7.6

0.8

2.8

4.8

0.5

6.3 6.2

0.6

25-54 55-64 65+ 25-54 55-64 65+

France

Age groupAge group
DISCOURAGEMENT REDUCES there is no work available or

NUMBER OF OLDER WORKERS because they do not know where to

look. Workers who become dis- The definition of discouraged workcouraged from actively seeking er differs somewhat from country to

work are no longer considered part country, but the basic concept

of the economically active popula- refers to people who are no longer

tion. In some countries, looking for work because they think

discouragement of older workers is

thought to be related to changes in

occupational structure and the subsequent need for a more-educated

workforce which favor younger

over older workers.

Cross-national data on discouraged

workers are fairly sparse. One comparison of 13 countries for 1993

indicates that older workers make

up a disproportionate share of all

discouraged workers, except in

Sweden. Illustrative data for six of

these countries (Figure 10-10) show

that while people aged 55 to 64

account for a small proportion of all

economically active people, they

account for a much larger proportion of all discouraged workers,

especially in the United Kingdom

where more than two-thirds of all

discouraged male workers were

aged 55 to 64. In countries with

data over time, discouraged older

workers were more numerous in

the early 1990s than in the early

1980s. Discouragement seems to

be more permanent among older

workers, as they are less likely to

re-enter the labor force than their

younger counterparts. Survey data

for 1990 for Belgium and France

show that more than half of men

aged 55 to 59 who had lost their

jobs in the 3 years preceding the

surveys were no longer in the labor

force (OECD, 1995). The corresponding figure for all workers was closer to one-quarter. Because of the

difficulties older people face in

obtaining a new job, discouragement often becomes a transition

from unemployment to retirement.

U.S. Census Bureau An Aging World: 2001 107

Figure 10-10.

Older Share of Economically Active Population and 

Discouraged Worker Population: 1993

Note: Data for Norway include persons aged 64-74; data for the United States include people 

aged 65 and over.

Sources: Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development, Employment Outlook 1995 and 

International Labour Office Yearbook of Labour Statistics, 1994. 

Females

Males

Female

Male

Female

Male

Female

Male

Female

Male

Female

Male

(In percent)

Economically

active people

aged 55-64 as

a percent of

all economically

active people

aged 25-64

Australia

Canada

Mexico

Discouraged

workers aged

55-64 as a percent

of all discouraged

workers aged

25-64

United States

Denmark

United Kingdom

24

11

55

7

29

11

50

9

42

13

44

11

53

12

36

8

26

14

69

12

53

12

26

11
INVALIDITY AND DISABILITY

PROGRAMS MAY BE AVENUES

TO RETIREMENT

Another path to retirement for older

workers has been disability programs. In Europe during the last

three decades, economic recessions

and high unemployment led some

governments (e.g., Germany, the

Netherlands, Sweden) to encourage

retirement by means of public

measures such as disability

schemes and long-term sickness

benefits. In many countries in the

late 1980s and early 1990s, disability pensioners made up the largest

proportion of all early pensioners

(OECD, 1992). Data for 1990

showed that the proportion of older

people receiving an invalidity benefit could be very large, e.g., nearly

one-third of all people aged 60 to

64 in Finland and Sweden, and

nearly half of the same age group

in Norway (OECD, 1995). While

numerous nations have modified or

revamped their disability/invalidity

programs during the last decade, it

appears likely that the varying

national provisions of such programs have an impact on retirement

patterns. Comparative data for 16

European countries in the mid1990s (Figure 10-11) show that the

percentage of older retired men

who retired due to their own illness

or disability ranged from 2 percent

in Portugal to 29 percent in

Switzerland.

ACTUAL RETIREMENT AGE

OFTEN LOWER THAN

STATUTORY AGE

Over several decades, many industrialized nations lowered the standard age at which people become

fully entitled to public pension awarded. In spite of the lowering

benefits. These reductions were of statutory retirement ages, the

propelled by a combination of fac- actual average age of retirement is

tors including general economic lower than the statutory age in a

conditions, changes in welfare phi- large majority of industrialized

losophy, and private pension countries. Of the 24 countries in

trends. The proliferation of early Table 10-2, the actual age exceeds

retirement schemes has increased the standard age only in Greece,

the number and usually the propor- Japan, and Turkey, and also in

tion of older workers who avail Iceland for men and in Italy for

themselves of such programs (Tracy women. In several countries (e.g.,

and Adams, 1989). Austria, Belgium, and Finland), the

average man retires 6 years or more One important issue for policymak- before the standard retirement age. ers and pension funds is the rela- Differences are often greater for tionship between the standard women, approaching 10 years in (statutory) retirement age and “actu- Luxembourg and the Netherlands. al” retirement age, the average age

at which retirement benefits are

108 An Aging World: 2001 U.S. Census Bureau

Figure 10-11.

Percent of Retired Men Aged 55 to 64 Who Left Last 

Job Due to Own Illness or Disability: 1995-96

Source: Excerpted from Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development 

(Employment Outlook, 2000).

Portugal

Austria

Greece

Italy

Sweden

France

Belgium

Denmark

Ireland

Netherlands

Luxembourg

Spain

United Kingdom

Germany

Finland

Switzerland

2.1

28.9

25.0

22.9

22.8

18.3

16.6

15.6

15.1

9.5

7.7

7.3

7.0

5.2

4.1

2.6
TREND IN EARLY RETIREMENT health of older workers were two

MAY BE CHANGING other factors said to have increased

early retirement. More recent The downward shift in the statutory

research, however, discounts the age at retirement during the 1970s

importance of these factors (Levine and 1980s in developed countries

was accompanied by an increase in and Mitchell, 1993; Blondal and

Scarpetta, 1998; Fronstin, 1999) the number of public early retirement programs and a correspon- and points instead to changes in

social security/private pension pro- ding increase in the number of

visions as well as to improved eco- retirees leaving the labor force prior

nomic status of older workers and to the statutory age. Some counincreases in wealth overall. As tries promoted early retirement as a

means of offsetting persistently Ruggles (1992) has noted in the

context of the United States, com- high levels of unemployment. In

Denmark, for example, a voluntary parisons of today’s elderly with the

elderly in previous decades suggest early retirement scheme was congreat increases in economic status. structed to encourage older workPeople entering the ranks of the ers to leave the labor market

elderly have higher educational (Petersen, 1991). Mandatory retirement practices and worsening attainment, higher-paid employment

histories, and higher average

income than did earlier cohorts of

elderly.

Some nations have raised (or are

considering an increase in) statutory

retirement age as one means of offsetting the fiscal pressures of population aging,4 in addition to fostering policies that encourage labor

force participation at older ages.

The effect of such actions is not yet

certain. Data for nine OECD countries from 1975 to 1990 reveal a

general downward trend in actual

retirement age during the period

1975-1990, with an apparent leveling off in the latter part of the period. Gendell’s (1998) analysis of

Germany, Japan, Sweden, and the

United States generally supports

this picture (Figure 10-12).

However, several studies have

argued that the early retirement

trend in the United States has

stopped (Smeeding and Quinn,

1997; Burkhauser and Quinn, 1997;

Quinn, 1997). Furthermore, a recent

OECD (2000) analysis of employment rates notes that the rates for

men aged 55 to 59 and 60 to 64

have increased slightly in the late

1990s in both the United States and

the Netherlands, and have stopped

declining in Canada, Germany,

Finland, Japan, Sweden and the

United Kingdom. The OECD study

suggests that this change is related

to the secular economic upturn in

the latter 1990s. 

U.S. Census Bureau An Aging World: 2001 109

4 In the United States, for example, the

Social Security system was revised in 1983 to

establish higher statutory retirement ages for

people born after 1937 (i.e., who reach age 65

after the year 2002). An individual’s retirement

age is linked to year of birth; beginning in the

year 2003, the “normal” retirement age of 65

will edge higher in small increments until reaching 67 years in the year 2025 (Robertson,

1992). Germany’s 1992 Pension Act also provides for a progressive increase in pensionable

age beginning at the turn of the century.

Table 10-2.

Standard and Actual Retirement Age in 24 Countries:

1995

Country

Male Female

Standard Actual Standard Actual

Australia. . . ........................

Austria ............................

Belgium . . . . . . . . ...................

Canada . . . . . . .....................

Denmark . . ........................

Finland ............................

France ............................

Germany . .........................

Greece ............................

Iceland . . . . ........................

Ireland ............................

Italy ...............................

Japan .............................

Luxembourg .......................

Netherlands........................

New Zealand.......................

Norway . ...........................

Portugal . . .........................

Spain .............................

Sweden ...........................

Switzerland ........................

Turkey ............................

United Kingdom . . ..................

United States ......................

65

65

65

65

67

65

60

65

62

67

66

62

60

65

65

62

67

65

65

65

65

60

65

65

61.8

58.6

57.6

62.3

62.7

59.0

59.2

60.5

62.3

69.5

63.4

60.6

66.5

58.4

58.8

62.0

63.8

63.6

61.4

63.3

64.6

63.6

62.7

63.6

60

60

60

65

67

65

60

65

57

67

66

57

58

65

65

62

67

62.5

65

65

62

55

60

65

57.2

56.5

54.1

58.8

59.4

58.9

58.3

58.4

60.3

66.0

60.1

57.2

63.7

55.4

55.3

58.6

62.0

60.8

58.9

62.1

60.6

66.6

59.7

61.6

Note: The standard age of retirement (also called the statutory age) refers to the age

of eligibility for full public pension benefits. The actual age reflects the estimated average

age of transition to inactivity among older workers.

Source: Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development, 1998 (Ageing

Working Paper 1.4).
110 An Aging World: 2001 U.S. Census Bureau

Figure 10-12.

Average Age at Labor Force Exit in Four Countries: Late 1960s to Early 1990s

Source: Gendell, 1998.

Male

Female

Male

Female

Male

Female

Male

Female

Germany Sweden

Japan United States

0

55

60

65

70

1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995

Age

0

55

60

65

70

1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995

Age

0

55

60

65

70

1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995

Age

0

55

60

65

70

1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995

Age
ADULTS SPENDING GREATER years before entry into the labor number of years in retirement had

PORTION OF LIFE IN market (primarily spent in school); jumped to 12. Unlike the trend for

RETIREMENT years not in work due to unemploy- men, the average number of years

Gains in life expectancy during the ment and/or economic inactivity; in employment for women has been

twentieth century have intersected years in the labor force; and years increasing, reflecting the temporal

with declining retirement ages to in retirement. Figure 10-13 shows changes in female labor force parproduce an increase in the propor- that in 1960, men on average could ticipation described earlier. At the

tion of an individual’s life spent in expect to spend 46 years in the same time, the amount of time

retirement. The OECD, using an labor force and a little more than women live after reaching retireaverage of unweighted data for 15 1 year in retirement. By 1995, the ment age increased greatly, from 

member countries, has decomposed number of years in the labor force 9 years in 1960 to more than 

the life course into four states: had decreased to 37 while the 21 years in 1995. 

U.S. Census Bureau An Aging World: 2001 111

Figure 10-13.

Decomposition of the Life Course, OECD Average: 1960 to 1995

Note: Based on an unweighted average of data for 15 member countries, using average life expectancies and labor force patterns as they existed for the 

years shown. These graphs are illustrative of overall trends, and should not be construed as representing the experience of any particular age cohort. 

Source: Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development, 1998b. 

Male Female

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1960 1970 1980 1990 1995

Age

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1960 1970 1980 1990 1995

Age

Age of 

entry in

the labor

market

Age of

retirement

Years in employment

Years in retirement

Years in employment

Years in retirement

Life 

expectancy

Age of 

entry in

the labor

market

Age of

retirement

Life 

expectancy

Years not in work

Years not in work

Years before the labor market Years before the labor market
PUBLIC PENSION SYSTEM

PROVISIONS SOMETIMES

INDUCE EARLY RETIREMENT

Research has begun to consider

national differences among labor

force participation at older ages as

a consequence (intended or unintended) of retirement provisions

and/or tax policy. In some countries, retirement benefit payments

are increased for people who postpone their retirement beyond the

allowable early retirement age. In

other countries, there is no future

benefit to be gained by postponing

retirement. One synthesis of various studies in industrialized nations

(Gruber and Wise, 1999) looked at

the “implicit tax on work,” a concept which contrasts the longer

stream of future benefit payments

that a worker would receive by

retiring at an early age versus the

shorter stream of future payments

that a worker might receive by

delaying his/her retirement. In

France, for example, social security

benefits are first available at age

60, and there is no increase in the

eventual benefit payment rate for benefits may be initially obtained at

people who retire after age 60. In age 62, but the benefit payment

the United States, social security rate is less than if a worker retires

112 An Aging World: 2001 U.S. Census Bureau

Figure 10-14.

Implicit Tax Rate on Work in France and 

the United States: Circa 1995

Source: Gruber and Wise, 1999. Reproduced with permission from graphs in "Social Security and 

Retirement Around the World," Research Highlights in the Demography and Economics of Aging, 

Issue No. 2, June 1998.

-60

-30

0

30

60

90

56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70

Percent

Age

France

United States
later, e.g., at age 65. Figure 10-14 States. The age-specific retirement

compares the implicit tax rates on age in France shows a steep jump

work in France and the United in retirement at age 60, which not

surprisingly corresponds to the

large implicit tax rise at that age.

The same study also considered a

“tax force to retire,” defined as the

total of the annual tax rates on

work between the ages of 55 and

69. Plotting this variable against a

measure of unused productive

capacity (simply, the percentage of

people aged 55 to 65 who were not

working) reveals a strong crossnational relationship between the

two (Figure 10-15). This finding

suggests that the financial structure

of national social security systems

may reward early retirement, and

that attempts to encourage

increased labor force participation

at older ages may be largely contingent upon policy changes in these

systems. This study also highlights

the potential power of focusing on

system design features, and stands

as a powerful example of the

importance of cross-national

research on aging-related issues.

U.S. Census Bureau An Aging World: 2001 113

Figure 10-15.

Tax Rates and Unused Capacity in 11 Developed 

Countries: Circa 1995

Source: Gruber and Wise, 1999. Reproduced with permission from graphs in "Social Security and 

Retirement Around the World," Research Highlights in the Demography and Economics of Aging, 

Issue No. 2, June 1998.

Unused productive capacity (55-65), in percent

Tax force to retire (55-69)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

9876543210 10

 United States

Japan

Canada

Sweden

Spain

France

Germany

Netherlands

Belgium

Italy

United Kingdom
U.S. Census Bureau An Aging World: 2001 115

CHAPTER 11.

Pensions and Income Security

Public pensions have become the retirement age. This example is tional transfers to provide adequate

financial lifeline of the elderly in based on average ages of retire- retirement income for older citimany societies. While some ment for employees in 1995 esti- zens. The number of countries

European public pension systems mated by the Organization for with an old age/disability/survivors

date back to the end of the nine- Economic Co-Operation and program increased from 33 in 1940

teenth century, current systems are Development (OECD) and popula- to 167 in 1999 (Figure 11-2). The

the result of changes instituted tion age/sex structures for 2000 World Bank (1994) has estimated

largely after World War II. The most and 2030 estimated and projected that formal public programs provide

obvious and, to governments, most by the U.S. Census Bureau. The coverage for approximately 30 perworrisome consequence of project- numerator of the ratio comprises all cent of the world’s older (aged 60

ed population aging will be an people at or over the average age and over) population, with some 40

increase in budgetary outlays in the of retirement in each country, and percent of the world’s working-age

form of old-age pension payments, the denominator all people between population making contributions

especially in those countries in the age of 20 and the average toward that support.

which public pensions are predomi- retirement age, assuming no

nately financed on a pay-as-you-go change in the average age of retire- LABOR FORCE PENSION

COVERAGE VARIES FROM basis. Increases in migration also ment between 2000 and 2030. The UNIVERSAL TO NIL are prompting governmental con- ratio increases notably over time in

cern about the “exporting” of cash all cases, and more than doubles Mandatory old-age pension plans

benefits to retirees in other coun- for men in the Netherlands. now cover more than 90 percent of

tries (Bolderson and Gains, 1994). the labor force in most developed

Many nations, both developed and PUBLIC OLD-AGE SECURITY countries. Governments are responSYSTEMS PROLIFERATING developing, are now reconsidering sible for mandating, financing, mantheir existing old-age security sys- Since the Second World War, public aging, and insuring public pensions.

tems, often with an eye toward pension plans have played an Public pension plans usually offer

introducing or strengthening private increasingly important role in pro- defined benefits that are not tied to

pension schemes. viding retirement income to older individual contributions, but rather,

people. Old-age pension schemes are financed by payroll taxes. This

DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE have become social institutions in arrangement is commonly referred

ALONE MAY DOUBLE many if not most countries through- to as a “pay-as-you-go” system inso- RETIREE/WORKER RATIO out the world. The goal of most far as current revenues (taxes on

The potential effect of demographic public old-age pension schemes is working adults) are used to finance

change on future retired popula- to provide all qualifying individuals the pension payments of people

tion/worker ratios, holding other with an income stream during their who are retired from the labor force

factors constant, may be approxi- later years, income which is: 1) (Mortensen, 1992).

mated in various ways. The most continuous; 2) adequate; 3) con- Most pay-as-you-go systems in commonly used indicator, as dis- stant, in terms of purchasing industrialized countries initially cussed in Chapter 8, is an elderly power; and 4) capable of maintain- promised generous benefits. support ratio which contrasts one ing the socioeconomic position of These pension programs, at their population segment (people aged the retired in relation to that of the inception, were based on a small 65 and over) to another (people active population (Nektarios, 1982). number of pensioners relative to a aged 20 to 64). One variation on

The major impetus for development large number of contributors this theme, shown in Figure 11-1

of public pension systems, particu- (workers). As systems matured, for 10 developed countries, allows

larly in industrialized countries, was ratios of pensioners to contributors for national differences in average

the inability of private intergenera- grew and in some countries
became unsustainable, particularly

during periods of economic stagnation. One result of such

changes was the development of

private pension systems to complement public pension systems

(Fox, 1994). Other measures taken

or considered have included

increasing worker contribution

rates, restructuring or reducing

benefits, and raising the standard

age of retirement (ISSA, 1993;

Holtzmann and Stiglitz, 2001).

In developing countries, public pension systems typically cover a much

smaller fraction of workers than in

industrialized nations (Figure 11-3).

Even economically vibrant societies

such as Hong Kong and Thailand

offer no publicly supported, comprehensive retirement pension scheme

(Bartlett and Phillips, 1995;

Domingo, 1995). In many cases,

coverage in developing countries is

restricted to certain categories of

workers such as civil servants, military personnel, and employees in

the formal economic sector. Rural,

predominantly agricultural workers

have little or no pension coverage in

much of the developing world,

although some governments have

taken steps to address this situation. Each state in India, for example, has implemented an old age

pension scheme for destitute people

with no source of income and no

family support (Kumar, 1998). While

pension amounts are minimal and

coverage far from universal, the formal institution of such a system

affords a nation a foundation upon

which to expand future coverage. 

116 An Aging World: 2001 U.S. Census Bureau

Figure 11-1.

Ratio of Retirement-Age to Working-Age 

Population in Ten Countries: 2000 and 2030

Note: Ratios represent the number of persons at or above average retirement age per 100 persons between age 

20 and the average retirement age in 1995. Each national average is shown in parentheses. 

Sources: OECD, 1998 (Aging Working Paper 1.4) and U.S. Census Bureau, 2000a.

United States (63.6)

United Kingdom (62.7)

Spain (61.4)

Netherlands (58.8)

Japan (66.5)

Italy (60.6)

France (59.2)

Finland (59.0)

Denmark (62.7)

Australia (61.8)

United States (61.6)

United Kingdom (59.7)

Spain (58.9)

Netherlands (55.3)

Japan (63.7)

Italy (57.2)

France (58.3)

Finland (58.9)

Denmark (59.4)

Australia (57.2)

(Average retirement age shown in parentheses)

2000

2030

37

52

23

43

24

44

40

75

34

57

35

63

21

41

30

63

30

54

26

45

20

40

72

42

69

46

81

48

80

58

105

35

65

50

96

46

85

44

71

31

Male

Female
Informal (usually family) systems

provide the bulk of social support

for older individuals in many countries, particularly in Africa and

South Asia. As economies expand

and nations urbanize, informal support systems such as extended family care and mutual aid societies

have tended to weaken. A major

challenge for governments in developing nations is to effect the expansion of formal-system coverage

(especially in rural areas) while

maintaining support for extant

informal mechanisms.

HOW GENEROUS ARE PUBLIC

PENSIONS?

The “value” of pensions can be construed and measured in different

ways, depending on how many and

which people in a given household

rely on pension income, the taxable

status of such income, the type of

job a retiree was engaged in, the

level of pension income in a given

society vis-a-vis other benefits such

as universal health care, and so

forth. The concept of “replacement

rate” is often used as a measure of

how much of a person’s preretirement income is supplied by

her/his pension. MacKellar and

McGreevey (1999) note that, in

industrialized countries, the average pension rose from 14 percent

of the average wage in 1930 to 55

percent in 1980. A comparison of

gross income replacement of social

security and other compulsory

retirement pension programs in 

12 European nations circa 1990

(International Benefits Information

U.S. Census Bureau An Aging World: 2001 117

Figure 11-2.

Number of Countries With Public Old-Age/Disability/

Survivors Program: 1940 to 1999

Source: U.S. Social Security Administration, 1999. 

33

44

58

97

123

135

167

1940 1949 1958 1969 1979 1989 1999

Figure 11-3.

Percent of Labor Force Covered by Public Old-Age 

Pension Program: Circa 1995

Source: World Bank, 1998. 

Italy

Germany

Russia

Poland

Brazil

Jordan

South Korea

Morocco

Zambia

Nigeria

96

1

10

21

30

40

50

66

72

94
Service, 1993) revealed that replacement rates ranged from 46 percent

to 102 percent, based on average

annual pay for a manufacturing

worker with dependent spouse.

For reasons mentioned above, there

is no single replacement rate in any

national retirement program, and

cross-national comparisons therefore are difficult. For comparative

purposes, however, the OECD has

constructed, for 1995, a synthetic

indicator of the expected gross

replacement rate (as a percent of

earnings) for a 55-year-old individual who retires at the standard age

of entitlement to a public pension.

This indicator takes account of two

earnings levels (average and twothirds of average) and two types of

households (single earner and

worker with a dependent spouse).

Pensions in some countries can be

expected to replace a large percentage of earnings, and even to match

or exceed the latter in Greece and

Spain. At the other end of the spectrum are Australia and Ireland,

where the public-pension replacement rates are on the order of 

40 percent. For the majority of

countries examined, the expected

replacement rates are about onehalf to two-thirds of pre-retirement

income (Figure 11-4).

118 An Aging World: 2001 U.S. Census Bureau

Figure 11-4.

Expected Old-Age Public Pension Replacement 

Rate in 26 Countries: 1995

Note: Synthetic indicator based on different earning levels and household types; see text and 

source for more detail. 

Source: OECD, 1998 (Aging Working Paper 1.4). 

(Percent)

United States

United Kingdom

Switzerland

Sweden

Spain

Portugal

Poland

Norway

New Zealand

Netherlands

Luxembourg

Japan

Italy

Ireland

Iceland

Hungary

Greece

Germany

France

Finland

Denmark

Czech Republic

Canada

Belgium

Austria

Australia

56

41

80

68

52

53

56

60

65

55

120

55

93

40

80

52

93

46

61

60

54

83

100

74

49

50
PUBLIC PENSIONS ABSORB

ONE-SEVENTH OF GDP IN SOME

COUNTRIES

The cost of public pensions generally is greatest among industrial

nations, most of which have pay-asyou-go systems. Pension expenditure had, on average, come to

exceed 9 percent of gross domestic

product (GDP) in OECD nations in

the early 1990s, and represented 8

percent of GDP in Eastern Europe.

Between 1960 and 1990, onequarter of the increase in total public expenditure in OECD countries

was growth in pension expenditure;

on average, the latter grew twice as

fast as did GDP. By 1996, public

pension spending in Italy and

Uruguay had reached 15 percent of

GDP (Palacios and Pallares-Miralles,

2000). Expenditure levels typically

are much lower in most developing

countries (Figure 11-5), where relatively younger populations and

smaller pension programs do not

yet place large demands on GDP.

ADMINISTRATIVE COSTS OF

PUBLIC PENSION SYSTEMS

HIGH IN SOME DEVELOPING

COUNTRIES

The cost of administering a public

pension scheme is an important factor in the scheme’s overall efficacy.

In many developing countries,

administrative costs as a percent of

total old-age benefits have been

high (e.g., 10-15 percent in Brazil

and Turkey) relative to the developed world — administrative costs

as a percent of old-age benefits are

less than 2 percent in most OECD

countries. In many developed

countries, the cost/benefit ratio

declined in the 1970s and early

U.S. Census Bureau An Aging World: 2001 119

Figure 11-5.

Public Pension Expenditure as a Percent of Gross 

Domestic Product in 25 Countries: Circa 1996

Source: Palacios and Pallares-Miralles, 2000. 

Cote d'Ivoire, 1997

Mexico, 1996

Togo, 1997

Uganda, 1997

Ecuador, 1997

Vietnam, 1998

Algeria, 1997

Sri Lanka, 1996

China, 1996

Turkey, 1995

Australia, 1995

Brazil, 1996

Kazakhstan, 1997

Russia, 1996

Israel, 1996

Cyprus, 1996

Japan, 1995

United States, 1995

Hungary, 1996

United Kingdom, 1995

Croatia, 1997

Germany, 1995

France, 1995

Uruguay, 1996

Italy, 1995

0.3

15.0

15.0

13.3

12.0

11.6

10.2

9.7

7.2

6.6

6.4

5.9

5.7

5.0

4.7

4.6

3.7

2.7

2.4

2.1

1.6

1.0

0.8

0.6

0.4

Figure 11-6.

Net Administrative Fees as a Percent of 

Total Contributions in Eight Latin American 

Individual-Account Systems: 1999 

Source: James, Smalhout and Vittas, 2001. 

Bolivia

Colombia

Uruguay

Chile

El Salvador

Peru

Mexico

Argentina 

5.5

23.0

22.1

19.0

17.6

15.6

14.3

14.1
1980s (Estrin, 1988) as a result of:

1) government austerity programs

that helped contain administrative

costs; 2) increases in total benefit

expenditures, reflecting not only

the maturation and/or expansion of

programs but also the impact of

inflation; and 3) greater use of computers for the processing of benefits, with corresponding gains in

efficiency.

The World Bank (1994) compiled

information on administrative costs

per participant in publicly managed

pension plans as a percent of per

capita income in the early 1990s,

demonstrating that such costs were

considerably higher in lower-income

countries. For example, costs per

participant as a percent of national

per capita income were 8 percent in

Tanzania, 7 percent in Burundi, and

2.3 percent in Chile, compared with

one-tenth of 1 percent or less in

Switzerland and the United States.

These data illustrate the importance

of an educated labor force, communications infrastructure, and other

advanced technological input to the

pension production function. More

recently, James, Smalhout, and

Vittas (2001) estimated the net

administrative fee in individual

account systems as a percent of a

person’s total contribution in eight

Latin American countries (Figure 11-

6). These fees were in double digits in seven of the eight nations as

of 1999, and exceeded 20 percent

in Argentina and Mexico.

ROUGHLY ONE-THIRD OF 

OECD WORKERS COVERED BY

OCCUPATIONAL PENSION PLANS

While public pension systems are

more widespread than occupational

pension plans, the latter are growing in coverage. Occupational

pension plans tend to be a more

important source of retirement

income than public pensions for

high income workers in developed

countries. About one-third of the

labor force in OECD countries was

enrolled in occupational pension

plans circa 1990, but a much

smaller proportion is covered in

most developing countries and transitional economies, where employer-sponsored schemes tend to cover

only public-sector workers (World

Bank, 1994). 

Cross-national estimates of occupational-scheme coverage among all

workers vary widely in the published literature, due in part to different temporal references as well

as different definitions of what an

occupational scheme is.1 Most

occupational plans are employerspecific, but in some nations (e.g.,

Denmark and the Netherlands)

plans are organized on an industrywide basis, with compulsory participation a result of collective bargaining. Switzerland requires all

120 An Aging World: 2001 U.S. Census Bureau

1 For a useful discussion of occupational

pension schemes within the context of broader

retirement system reforms, see OECD, 1998,

Ageing Working Paper 3.4.

employers to provide pension benefits for employees above a certain

income level. OECD estimates for

the early 1990s, compiled from various sources, show occupational

scheme coverage in 19 industrialized countries ranging from 5 percent in Italy and Greece to 90 percent in Sweden and the Netherlands

(OECD, 1998, Ageing Working Paper

2.2).

Of course, not all workers who are

covered by occupational plans are

in fact enrolled in them. Further,

the percent of older people actually

receiving benefits from employerprovided plans is likely to be lower

still, because many retirees either

did not have access to such plans

during their working years, or did

not participate for enough years to

become vested. Whitehouse (2000)

has compiled data on the percentage of pensioners with income from

employer-provided pensions in

eight developed countries in the

late 1990s (Figure 11-7). In countries where a gender breakdown is

Figure 11-7.

Percent of Pensioners With Income From 

Employer-Provided Pensions: Late 1990s

Source: Whitehouse, 2000.

United States

United Kingdom

Netherlands

Germany

Canada

Australia

Male

Female

26

20

7

54

31

21

9

76

23

66

32

48
U.S. Census Bureau An Aging World: 2001 121

Box 11-1.

Chile is the Developing-Country Model for Pension Privatization

Chile first enacted a public pension scheme in 1911, administered retirement fund (additional payroll

and expanded its program following the European deductions are made for life insurance and fund

social insurance model financed on a pay-as-you-go expenses). Workers themselves select from many

basis. Between 1960 and 1980, the ratio of pension- competing investment companies, are free to switch

ers to contributing workers increased from 9 per 100 their accounts, and have several options for withto 45 per 100, due to rapidly changing demographics drawal and annuities upon retirement. To reduce misand increasing tax evasion on the part of employees management risks, the government assumes a major

and employers (Williamson, 1992). These changes, supervisory and regulatory role (Schulz, 1993).

occurring in the context of a stagnant economy, By most accounts, the Chilean experiment during its resulted in a situation where the pension system was initial decade was a success, with real annual returns no longer able to meet current obligations. Faced on contributions averaging in excess of 12 percent with an increasingly bleak future scenario, the Chilean during the 1980s. From 1995 to 1998, however, government in 1980 abandoned its public system in annual rates of return were much lower and in favor of a compulsory savings plan administered by 2 years were negative, before rebounding in 1999 private-sector companies. (Figure 11-8). Overall, the long-term (19-year) averSince 1981, all wage and salary earners are required to age real return exceeds 11 percent. Observers have

contribute 10 percent of their earnings to a privately pointed out several drawbacks to the system, such as

high administrative costs,

workers’ loss of freedom visa-vis one-tenth of their earnings, and the fact that eventual income replacement

rates are not guaranteed, i.e.,

are reliant on investment

earnings that may suffer in

times of economic stagnation

(Gillion and Bonilla, 1992).

Nevertheless, many countries

in Latin America, Eastern

Europe, and Asia have adopted or are seriously considering aspects of the Chilean

system, or are experimenting

with variations on the theme

(Kritzer, 2000; Fox and

Palmer, 2001). Consideration

of increased privatization of

social security systems is

now commonplace in much

of the developed world as

well, and has become a hotly

debated political topic.

Figure 11-8.

Real Rate of Return of Chile's Private 

Pension System: 1981 to 1999

Source: Reported in Palacios and Pallares-Miralles, 2000.

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999

Percent

Average, 1981-1999:

11.2%
available, the data show that men

are much more likely to receive

such benefits, as would be expected from past gender patterns of

labor force participation.

Company-based pension programs

in the developing world are found

most frequently in former British

colonies and in countries with large

multinational subsidiaries. Most

such programs are subject to less

regulation and lower funding

requirements than their counterparts in industrialized countries,

although both Indonesia and South

Africa have developed comprehensive and well-regulated private pension systems. Coverage of privatesector workers is increasing in a

number of other large developing

nations such as Brazil, India, and

Mexico (World Bank, 1994).

PRIVATE PENSION FUND

ASSETS A MAJOR SOURCE OF

LONG-TERM CAPITAL

Private pension fund assets are

sizeable in many developed countries. In 1998, such assets were

equivalent to more than 80 percent

of GDP in the Netherlands, the

United Kingdom, and the United

States (Figure 11-9). Most occupational-plan funds have been invested in private-sector assets, are

internationally diversified, and have

earned higher returns than publicly

managed funds (Davis, 1993;

1998).

These funds have grown considerably over the last three decades.

The average annual growth rate of

pension funds for OECD countries

as a whole between 1990 and 1996

was 11 percent (OECD, 1998b).

122 An Aging World: 2001 U.S. Census Bureau

Figure 11-9.

Private Pension Fund Assets as a Percent 

of GDP: 1970 and 1998

Note: Later Swiss figure refers to 1996. 

Sources: World Bank, 1994 and OECD, 2000. 

United States

United Kingdom

Switzerland

Netherlands

Denmark

Canada

1970

1998

86

14

48

19

22

29

86

38

75

21

84

29

Table 11-1.

Payroll Tax Rates for Provident Fund Schemes:

Early-to-Mid-1990s

(Percentage of wages)

Country Employees Employer

Africa

The Gambia . . .................................... 5 10

Ghana............................................ 5 12.5

Kenya . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 5

Nigeria . . ......................................... 6 6

Swaziland . ....................................... 5 5

Tanzania. . ........................................ 10 10

Uganda. .......................................... 5 10

Zambia ........................................... 5 5

Asia

Fiji . .............................................. 7 7

India ............................................. 10 10

Indonesia . . ....................................... 1 2

Kiribati ........................................... 5 5

Malaysia.......................................... 9 11

Nepal . ........................................... 10 10

Singapore ........................................ 7-30 10

Solomon Island.................................... 5 8

Sri Lanka ......................................... 8 12

Western Samoa . .................................. 5 5

Latin America

Argentina . . ....................................... 11 0

Chile . . ........................................... 13 0

Colombia ......................................... 3 9

Peru . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 0

Source: World Bank, 1994.
This increase is expected to contin- Where provident-fund coverage is nonmonetary indicators of welfare,

ue for at least the short term, extensive, such funds may in effect and concluded that in all 12

because many aging nations with be the public pension system. nations, the nonelderly were better

relatively underdeveloped pre- off than the elderly (Tsakloglou, The performance of provident funds funded systems have considerable 1996). Data for France, however, globally has been erratic. In some room for growth. The looming poli- suggest that extreme poverty East Asian countries (notably cy question is whether population (below the level of guaranteed mini- Singapore, which has the world’s aging will depress rates of return mum income) is much less common largest provident fund), funds typi- on private pension funds. As the among the elderly than among cally have earned positive annual large post-World War II cohorts younger households (David and investment returns. In other move into retirement, they are Starzec, 1993). nations, inflation and poor econom- expected to divest some of their ic growth have lessened the value The OECD (2000) has concluded financial assets accumulated during of fund contributions; in Sri Lanka, that there has been a stable or their working years. This prospect for example, the real annual rate of improving economic picture for highlights the importance of the return for the Employee Provident older people, both in absolute nature of pension fund manage- Fund in the 1980s and early 1990s terms and relative to the nonelderly ment, changes in government regu- often was negative (International population. Poverty rates for older lations, and the varying sociocultu- Labour Office, 1993). Such perform- people have declined in most ral impetuses for retirement savings ance has led several countries to nations, as has the share of older (OECD, 2000; National Research abandon provident schemes in people among the poor. In the Council, 2001). favor of defined-benefit pension United States, the overall situation

PROVIDENT FUNDS plans (Palacios and Pallares-Miralles, of elderly people improved dramatiPARAMOUNT IN SOME 2000). cally during the last third of the

DEVELOPING COUNTRIES twentieth century. Studies of real

ARE LIVING STANDARDS OF median household income (adjusted A provident fund is a form of com- THE ELDERLY CHANGING IN for household size) have demon- pulsory defined-contribution pro- DEVELOPED COUNTRIES? strated much larger gains for elder- gram wherein regular contributions Given the maturation of public pen- ly people relative to the general are withheld from employee wages sions systems, increases in the level population (Radner, 1995; McNeil, and invested for later repayment. of female labor force participation, 1998). And, poverty among the Payouts typically are in the form of and the development of private elderly has declined. One-third of a lump sum upon retirement, but

may also be made earlier in times pension schemes, one might expect all U.S. elderly were below the

that older citizens in industrialized poverty line in 1960; by the mid- of special need. Except in some nations are better off, economically, 1990s, the level had declined to Latin American countries, employ- than previous generations of elderly 10 percent, lower than among chil- ers match or exceed the employee people. And, there is a growing dren under the age of 18 (Friedland contribution. Although provident perception in some countries that and Summer, 1999). funds can cover private-sector the elderly as a whole are faring workers, they are managed publicly. Data from the Luxembourg Income better than other population subStudy reveal considerable inter- Malaysia, in 1951, was the first groups. However, the complexity of

country variation in poverty rates nation to establish a wide scale measuring economic well-being

among elderly citizens. An analysis provident fund, and other Asian often precludes a definitive assessnations (e.g., India, Singapore, and ment of these issues, and there is of standardized information from

nine nations (Smeeding and Sri Lanka) have had provident funds considerable concern about the willSaunders, 1998) suggests that for more than 40 years. By the ingness and ability of households to

mid-1990s more than 20 nations Canada, Germany, and Hungary pro- adequately save for retirement

vide their elderly the best overall had developed such schemes (Table needs (see, e.g., MacKellar, 2000).

protection from poverty relative to 11-1). None of these countries had One study of 12 European Union

the other six countries (Figure a public pay-as-you-go system at countries in the late 1980s com11-10). This analysis also highlights the time its provident fund was pared survey data on consumption

the fact that overall figures may established (World Bank, 1994). expenditure, income, and

U.S. Census Bureau An Aging World: 2001 123
mask large differences among

population subgroups, as seen in

the data for elderly women living

alone. The economic vulnerability

of single elderly women also has

been noted in a 14-country study of

data from the European Community

Household Panel (Heinrich, 2000).

One obviously important component of elderly living standards is

health care and its costs. As the

latter have escalated in the 1990s, a

growing body of research has

focused on identifying the costs of

specific illnesses and on projecting

health expenditures (see, e.g.,

Cutler and Meara, 1999; Mayhew,

1999; and OECD, 2000). Other

major thrusts of current research in

the economics of aging seek: to

more fully and accurately measure

levels of household wealth and

assets; to better assess differences

in these variables within populations; and to understand transitions

in income and poverty status,

particularly as they relate to changing health status at older ages.

Data from the European Community

Household Panel Survey is beginning to shed light on the interplay

of health status and retirement decisions of older European couples

(Jiminez-Martin, Labeaga, and the Health and Retirement Survey in

Granado, 1999). In order to capture the United States (see Burkhauser

the complexity of such transitions and Gertler, 1995 for a comprehenand understand their significance sive overview of this study, and

for policy planning, several nations National Research Council, 2001 for

have mounted (or are planning to future recommendations).

initiate) longitudinal studies akin to

124 An Aging World: 2001 U.S. Census Bureau

Figure 11-10.

Percent of Elderly Living in Households With Less 

Than 50 Percent of Adjusted National 

Median Disposable Income 

Note: Percent for elderly women living alone in Japan is not reported. 

Source: Smeeding and Saunders, 1998.

United States, 1994

Taiwan, 1991

Poland, 1992

Japan, 1992

Hungary, 1995

Germany, 1989

Finland, 1991

Canada, 1991

Australia, 1990

All elderly

Elderly women

living alone

43

29

62

7

16

16

35

8

13

9

14

18

N/A

11

19

25

74

23
U.S. Census Bureau An Aging World: 2001 125

APPENDIX A.

Detailed Tables
Table 1.

Total Population, Percent Elderly, and Percent Oldest Old: 1975, 2000, 2015, and 2030

(In thousands)

Country

1975 2000

Total

population

Percent of Percent of

population population

65+ 80+

80+ as a

percent of

65+

Total

population

Percent of Percent of

population population

65+ 80+

80+ as a

percent of

65+

United States ...............

Western Europe

Austria .......................

Belgium . .....................

Denmark . . ...................

France .......................

Germany .....................

Greece.......................

Italy..........................

Luxembourg . . . ...............

Norway . . ....................

Sweden ......................

United Kingdom ...............

Eastern Europe

Bulgaria ......................

Czech Republic ...............

Hungary......................

Poland . ......................

Russia .......................

Ukraine ......................

North America/Oceania

Australia .....................

Canada . . . ...................

New Zealand .................

Asia

Bangladesh. . . ................

China ........................

India . . . ......................

Indonesia.....................

Israel ........................

Japan........................

Malaysia .....................

Pakistan. . ....................

Philippines. . ..................

Singapore ....................

South Korea . . . ...............

Sri Lanka. . . ..................

Thailand......................

Turkey .......................

Latin America/Caribbean

Argentina.....................

Brazil ........................

Chile.........................

Colombia.....................

Costa Rica ...................

Guatemala ...................

Jamaica......................

Mexico . . . ....................

Peru .........................

Uruguay......................

Africa

Egypt ........................

Kenya........................

Liberia .......................

Malawi . . .....................

Morocco......................

Tunisia .......................

Zimbabwe ....................

220,165

7,579

9,796

5,060

52,699

78,679

9,047

55,441

362

4,007

8,193

56,226

8,722

9,997

10,532

34,022

134,233

49,016

13,900

23,209

3,083

76,582

927,808

620,701

135,666

3,455

111,524

12,258

74,734

43,010

2,263

35,281

13,603

41,359

40,025

26,049

108,167

10,337

25,381

1,968

6,018

2,013

59,099

15,161

2,829

38,841

13,741

1,609

5,244

17,305

5,668

6,143

10.5

14.9

13.9

13.4

13.5

14.8

12.2

12.0

13.0

13.7

15.1

14.0

10.9

12.9

12.6

9.5

8.9

10.5

8.7

8.4

8.7

3.6

4.4

3.8

3.2

7.8

7.9

3.7

3.0

2.7

4.1

3.6

4.1

3.0

4.5

7.6

3.9

5.3

3.6

3.4

2.8

5.8

4.0

3.5

9.6

4.2

3.7

3.7

2.2

3.7

3.5

2.6

2.1

2.3

2.3

2.4

2.5

2.2

2.1

1.9

2.2

2.5

2.7

2.4

1.4

1.7

1.7

1.2

1.2

1.6

1.5

1.6

1.4

0.3

0.6

0.3

0.3

1.0

1.1

0.5

0.3

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.5

0.3

0.4

0.9

0.5

0.8

0.4

0.5

0.4

0.8

0.7

0.3

1.6

0.4

0.5

0.9

0.2

0.5

0.5

0.3

20.4

15.5

16.4

18.0

18.3

14.6

17.1

16.0

17.0

18.2

17.8

17.0

12.8

13.5

13.3

12.4

14.0

15.0

17.4

19.3

16.4

8.4

12.5

8.1

8.6

12.3

13.5

13.3

10.9

13.4

9.7

10.1

13.2

10.9

7.9

12.1

12.5

14.5

11.8

13.6

13.1

14.5

17.9

9.1

16.9

9.7

12.8

23.3

8.0

14.2

13.1

9.9

275,563

8,131

10,242

5,336

59,330

82,797

10,602

57,634

437

4,481

8,873

59,508

7,797

10,272

10,139

38,646

146,001

49,153

19,165

31,278

3,820

129,194

1,261,832

1,014,004

224,784

5,842

126,550

21,793

141,554

81,160

4,152

47,471

19,239

61,231

65,667

36,955

172,860

15,154

39,686

3,711

12,640

2,653

100,350

27,013

3,334

68,360

30,340

3,164

10,386

30,122

9,593

11,343

12.6

15.4

16.8

14.9

16.0

16.2

17.3

18.1

14.0

15.2

17.3

15.7

16.5

13.9

14.6

12.3

12.6

13.9

12.4

12.7

11.5

3.3

7.0

4.6

4.5

9.9

17.0

4.1

4.1

3.6

6.8

7.0

6.5

6.4

6.0

10.4

5.3

7.2

4.7

5.2

3.6

6.8

4.3

4.7

12.9

3.8

2.7

3.4

2.8

4.6

6.0

3.5

3.3

3.4

3.5

4.0

3.7

3.5

3.5

4.0

3.0

4.4

5.0

4.0

2.2

2.4

2.5

2.1

2.0

2.2

3.0

3.1

2.9

0.5

0.9

0.6

0.4

2.4

3.7

0.5

0.5

0.5

1.5

1.0

1.0

0.9

0.9

2.2

0.8

1.2

0.6

0.9

0.5

1.5

0.6

0.7

2.7

0.4

0.4

0.6

0.3

0.7

0.8

0.5

26.5

22.2

20.8

26.7

23.3

21.6

20.2

22.2

21.2

28.6

29.2

25.5

13.2

17.1

17.4

16.8

15.9

16.0

24.0

24.8

25.0

15.0

13.1

13.1

10.0

23.9

21.7

13.5

13.3

13.6

21.3

13.9

15.6

13.9

15.2

21.7

15.3

16.8

12.2

17.9

13.5

21.6

14.9

15.0

21.2

10.2

13.0

16.8

9.9

14.2

13.3

14.7

126 An Aging World: 2001 U.S. Census Bureau
Table 1.

Total Population, Percent Elderly, and Percent Oldest Old: 1975, 2000, 2015, and

2030—Con.

(In thousands)

Country

2015 2030

Total

population

Percent of Percent of

population population

65+ 80+

80+ as a

percent of

65+

Total

population

Percent of Percent of

population population

65+ 80+

80+ as a

percent of

65+

United States ...................

Western Europe

Austria ...........................

Belgium ..........................

Denmark .........................

France ...........................

Germany .........................

Greece ...........................

Italy ..............................

Luxembourg ......................

Norway ...........................

Sweden ..........................

United Kingdom ...................

Eastern Europe

Bulgaria ..........................

Czech Republic ...................

Hungary ..........................

Poland . . . ........................

Russia . ..........................

Ukraine. . .........................

North America/Oceania

Australia ..........................

Canada...........................

New Zealand......................

Asia

Bangladesh .......................

China ............................

India .............................

Indonesia . ........................

Israel.............................

Japan ............................

Malaysia. .........................

Pakistan ..........................

Philippines ........................

Singapore ........................

South Korea ......................

Sri Lanka .........................

Thailand ..........................

Turkey............................

Latin America/Caribbean

Argentina . . .......................

Brazil. . . ..........................

Chile . . ...........................

Colombia . . . ......................

Costa Rica. . ......................

Guatemala ........................

Jamaica ..........................

Mexico ...........................

Peru . . ...........................

Uruguay ..........................

Africa

Egypt . . ..........................

Kenya . ...........................

Liberia............................

Malawi ...........................

Morocco ..........................

Tunisia . ..........................

Zimbabwe ........................

312,524

8,316

10,336

5,521

61,545

85,192

10,735

56,631

519

4,767

8,900

61,047

6,663

10,048

9,666

38,668

141,073

45,294

21,697

35,653

4,396

160,486

1,397,414

1,241,572

275,152

6,992

125,843

28,414

185,715

106,098

6,646

52,239

21,527

68,139

76,685

42,916

192,313

17,405

49,189

4,583

18,105

2,992

121,712

33,551

3,730

85,219

33,612

4,655

12,017

37,832

11,174

10,548

14.7

18.8

19.4

18.9

18.8

20.2

20.6

22.2

15.3

17.4

21.4

18.4

20.2

18.8

17.6

15.0

13.8

15.0

15.8

16.1

13.7

4.4

9.5

5.9

6.2

11.1

24.9

5.9

4.5

4.9

8.7

11.3

9.5

9.8

7.9

11.8

8.1

10.7

6.5

7.3

4.1

7.4

6.3

6.4

13.5

5.1

3.8

4.0

3.1

5.5

7.6

5.0

3.8

4.9

5.7

4.4

5.8

5.4

6.3

6.8

4.1

4.6

5.7

4.9

4.6

4.2

4.3

3.8

3.1

3.2

4.1

4.3

3.5

0.6

1.7

0.9

1.1

3.0

7.0

0.8

0.7

0.7

2.1

2.2

1.7

1.8

1.6

3.1

1.5

2.1

1.0

1.4

0.7

1.8

1.0

1.2

3.8

0.6

0.6

0.8

0.4

1.0

1.5

1.0

25.8

26.2

29.3

23.6

30.9

26.6

30.5

30.5

27.1

26.3

26.8

26.8

23.0

22.3

24.2

25.1

22.7

21.1

25.9

26.8

25.7

12.5

18.0

14.5

16.9

26.6

28.2

14.3

15.0

14.6

24.1

19.3

17.7

18.0

19.9

26.0

18.7

19.3

15.6

19.2

17.8

24.1

16.6

18.3

28.2

11.9

16.6

21.1

12.7

17.4

19.8

20.2

351,326

8,278

10,175

5,649

61,926

84,939

10,316

52,868

580

5,018

8,868

61,481

5,668

9,409

9,034

37,377

132,859

42,273

23,497

39,128

4,768

184,478

1,483,121

1,437,103

312,592

7,873

116,740

35,306

226,251

129,448

9,047

53,763

22,937

71,311

84,195

47,229

203,489

18,915

57,666

5,272

24,038

3,353

139,125

39,253

4,109

99,583

34,836

6,745

12,817

44,664

12,322

9,086

20.0

25.2

25.4

23.0

24.0

25.8

25.4

28.1

19.8

22.0

25.1

23.5

25.9

24.7

22.5

22.2

20.5

19.7

21.1

22.9

17.8

7.2

16.0

9.0

10.9

14.9

28.3

9.4

6.5

7.7

14.8

19.5

15.2

16.4

12.9

14.7

13.2

16.4

11.5

12.8

5.6

12.5

10.2

9.9

15.5

8.0

5.2

4.2

3.2

9.1

12.7

6.4

5.3

7.0

7.3

7.1

7.5

7.2

7.8

9.0

5.2

6.6

8.6

7.0

7.2

7.4

6.3

5.5

4.1

4.2

6.0

6.2

5.0

1.0

2.9

1.4

1.7

3.9

11.1

1.6

0.9

1.2

3.0

4.2

3.1

3.1

2.4

4.0

2.7

3.7

1.8

2.4

1.0

2.3

1.9

1.9

4.4

1.1

1.1

1.0

0.6

1.4

2.3

1.8

26.4

27.9

28.8

30.8

31.2

28.1

30.8

32.1

26.2

30.0

34.3

29.7

27.8

30.0

27.9

24.8

20.0

21.5

28.5

26.9

28.2

13.5

18.3

15.7

15.6

26.5

39.3

16.9

14.4

15.9

20.4

21.3

20.2

19.3

18.7

27.3

20.6

22.3

15.9

18.9

17.6

18.7

18.7

19.0

28.1

14.2

20.7

24.9

17.5

15.2

17.7

27.7

Source: United Nations, 1999 and U.S. Census Bureau, 2000a.

U.S. Census Bureau An Aging World: 2001 127
Table 2.

Population by Age: 2000 and 2030

(In thousands)

Country

2000

All ages

0 to 24

years

25 to 54

years

55 to 64

years

65 to 69

years

70 to 74

years

75 to 79

years

80 years

and over

United States ...............

Western Europe

Austria .......................

Belgium . .....................

Denmark . . ...................

France .......................

Germany .....................

Greece.......................

Italy..........................

Luxembourg . . . ...............

Norway . . ....................

Sweden ......................

United Kingdom ...............

Eastern Europe

Bulgaria ......................

Czech Republic ...............

Hungary......................

Poland . ......................

Russia .......................

Ukraine ......................

North America/Oceania

Australia .....................

Canada . . . ...................

New Zealand .................

Asia

Bangladesh. . . ................

China ........................

India . . . ......................

Indonesia.....................

Israel ........................

Japan........................

Malaysia .....................

Pakistan. . ....................

Philippines. . ..................

Singapore ....................

South Korea . . . ...............

Sri Lanka. . . ..................

Thailand......................

Turkey .......................

Latin America/Caribbean

Argentina.....................

Brazil ........................

Chile.........................

Colombia.....................

Costa Rica ...................

Guatemala ...................

Jamaica......................

Mexico . . . ....................

Peru .........................

Uruguay......................

Africa

Egypt ........................

Kenya........................

Liberia .......................

Malawi . . .....................

Morocco......................

Tunisia .......................

Zimbabwe ....................

275,563

8,131

10,242

5,336

59,330

82,797

10,602

57,634

437

4,481

8,873

59,508

7,797

10,272

10,139

38,646

146,001

49,153

19,165

31,278

3,820

129,194

1,261,832

1,014,004

224,784

5,842

126,550

21,793

141,554

81,160

4,152

47,471

19,239

61,231

65,667

36,955

172,860

15,154

39,686

3,711

12,640

2,653

100,350

27,013

3,334

68,360

30,340

3,164

10,386

30,122

9,593

11,343

97,064

2,325

3,033

1,594

18,852

22,309

3,088

14,873

133

1,435

2,655

18,549

2,354

3,250

3,207

13,915

49,232

16,052

6,629

10,154

1,417

76,298

515,155

536,947

113,419

2,617

34,782

11,583

86,109

46,410

1,333

18,091

8,759

25,879

32,182

16,326

84,691

6,733

19,897

1,888

7,922

1,312

54,699

14,735

1,348

37,706

20,064

1,985

6,955

16,826

4,834

7,281

119,662

3,629

4,432

2,340

25,513

36,224

4,480

25,640

199

1,937

3,674

25,496

3,255

4,505

4,336

16,676

64,197

20,607

8,427

14,322

1,637

42,947

572,082

373,956

88,231

2,257

53,858

8,175

43,165

28,087

2,281

22,191

7,933

27,045

25,619

13,856

68,842

6,194

15,867

1,438

3,765

1,027

36,241

9,606

1,257

24,572

8,423

929

2,757

10,472

3,638

3,238

24,001

926

1,052

610

5,471

10,813

1,195

6,696

44

426

1,010

6,138

902

1,093

1,113

3,319

14,160

5,647

1,727

2,838

324

5,645

86,822

56,037

13,080

391

16,385

1,152

6,485

3,717

253

3,875

1,295

4,386

3,935

2,946

10,136

1,133

2,071

193

496

135

5,092

1,409

298

3,509

1,021

141

385

1,434

542

422

9,436

347

521

219

2,711

4,104

605

3,093

19

167

380

2,585

453

448

479

1,616

5,996

2,080

668

1,147

124

1,744

34,926

18,477

4,616

168

7,031

353

2,317

1,220

98

1,365

455

1,591

1,514

1,209

3,501

391

742

70

184

56

1,722

500

138

1,162

340

43

126

538

223

156

8,753

332

462

194

2,466

3,592

521

2,766

17

164

363

2,347

382

409

420

1,372

6,182

2,294

633

1,012

116

1,206

25,426

13,785

2,872

152

5,812

260

1,637

820

76

895

358

1,086

1,099

1,026

2,594

310

546

53

132

48

1,197

351

118

748

237

29

85

393

173

112

7,422

294

383

167

2,100

2,846

341

2,253

12

156

343

2,018

282

323

326

953

3,299

1,377

509

822

91

710

15,908

8,627

1,559

120

4,012

151

1,071

504

49

594

244

699

721

761

1,693

210

338

35

79

36

757

223

84

401

146

19

49

262

106

74

9,225

278

358

212

2,216

2,911

371

2,313

13

196

447

2,373

169

244

257

794

2,936

1,096

573

984

110

643

11,513

6,175

1,006

138

4,670

119

770

401

61

460

195

545

597

831

1,403

184

225

34

62

39

642

189

91

261

108

18

28

197

77

59

128 An Aging World: 2001 U.S. Census Bureau
Table 2.

Population by Age: 2000 and 2030—Con.

(In thousands)

Country

2030

All ages

0 to 24

years

25 to 54

years

55 to 64

years

65 to 69

years

70 to 74

years

75 to 79

years

80 years

and over

United States ...............

Western Europe

Austria .......................

Belgium . .....................

Denmark . . ...................

France .......................

Germany .....................

Greece.......................

Italy..........................

Luxembourg . . . ...............

Norway . . ....................

Sweden ......................

United Kingdom ...............

Eastern Europe

Bulgaria ......................

Czech Republic ...............

Hungary......................

Poland . ......................

Russia .......................

Ukraine ......................

North America/Oceania

Australia .....................

Canada . . . ...................

New Zealand .................

Asia

Bangladesh. . . ................

China ........................

India . . . ......................

Indonesia.....................

Israel ........................

Japan........................

Malaysia .....................

Pakistan. . ....................

Philippines. . ..................

Singapore ....................

South Korea . . . ...............

Sri Lanka. . . ..................

Thailand......................

Turkey .......................

Latin America/Caribbean

Argentina.....................

Brazil ........................

Chile.........................

Colombia.....................

Costa Rica ...................

Guatemala ...................

Jamaica......................

Mexico . . . ....................

Peru .........................

Uruguay......................

Africa

Egypt ........................

Kenya........................

Liberia .......................

Malawi . . .....................

Morocco......................

Tunisia .......................

Zimbabwe ....................

351,326

8,278

10,175

5,649

61,926

84,939

10,316

52,868

580

5,018

8,868

61,481

5,668

9,409

9,034

37,377

132,859

42,273

23,497

39,128

4,768

184,478

1,483,121

1,437,103

312,592

7,873

116,740

35,306

226,251

129,448

9,047

53,763

22,937

71,311

84,195

47,229

203,489

18,915

57,666

5,272

24,038

3,353

139,125

39,253

4,109

99,583

34,836

6,745

12,817

44,664

12,322

9,086

115,218

1,916

2,553

1,515

16,405

20,074

2,287

10,165

164

1,405

2,210

16,077

1,096

1,933

2,012

9,260

35,650

11,383

6,643

10,368

1,400

71,167

437,787

558,161

112,472

2,724

25,589

15,017

95,929

55,474

2,345

14,515

7,102

21,219

26,295

16,082

66,334

5,863

21,940

1,796

12,128

1,062

52,128

14,952

1,444

38,878

15,729

3,958

6,856

17,220

3,806

4,622

128,484

3,034

3,683

2,076

22,599

31,104

3,814

18,788

229

1,856

3,267

22,663

2,240

3,718

3,662

15,184

53,589

17,099

8,941

14,987

1,914

84,043

588,812

614,683

132,916

3,154

40,441

13,891

98,625

53,369

4,158

20,967

9,580

28,987

36,793

19,374

87,458

7,817

23,069

2,248

9,105

1,447

58,225

16,694

1,593

43,516

15,402

2,213

5,087

19,141

5,428

3,566

37,305

1,244

1,357

760

8,073

11,886

1,594

9,033

72

653

1,167

8,296

866

1,436

1,330

4,642

16,428

5,479

2,960

4,800

607

16,060

219,501

135,423

33,067

825

17,661

3,063

17,008

10,581

1,204

7,819

2,771

9,441

10,231

4,834

22,898

2,133

6,034

554

1,455

425

14,646

3,735

434

9,212

1,902

292

466

4,225

1,517

317

19,844

636

709

357

3,775

6,502

692

4,115

35

295

555

4,215

381

583

485

2,087

8,288

2,553

1,356

2,581

233

5,248

84,958

49,013

12,612

327

7,094

1,236

5,826

3,738

468

3,470

1,142

3,927

3,940

1,963

9,091

1,006

2,481

235

493

158

5,165

1,394

183

3,144

610

92

144

1,546

581

146

17,878

500

628

295

3,435

5,192

620

3,307

29

261

482

3,336

362

532

506

2,267

7,776

2,292

1,212

2,249

209

3,821

59,230

35,886

9,740

288

6,391

919

4,186

2,814

360

2,959

945

3,189

2,899

1,705

7,080

823

1,872

188

368

110

3,700

1,031

156

2,261

472

69

111

1,180

442

147

14,029

367

501

246

3,005

4,036

503

2,685

22

217

424

2,598

315

512

472

1,882

5,681

1,683

975

1,728

166

2,356

49,367

23,744

6,450

246

6,562

617

2,568

1,877

239

1,803

694

2,303

2,002

1,376

5,099

582

1,217

124

252

73

2,621

711

119

1,437

349

50

81

735

270

127

18,569

582

744

400

4,635

6,145

807

4,775

30

331

763

4,296

408

696

566

2,056

5,446

1,783

1,410

2,414

238

1,783

43,466

20,194

5,335

310

13,002

563

2,109

1,596

274

2,231

703

2,245

2,036

1,895

5,530

691

1,053

127

238

78

2,639

736

179

1,136

373

70

71

618

278

161

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000a.

U.S. Census Bureau An Aging World: 2001 129
Table 3.

Average Annual Growth Rate and Percent Change Over Time for Older Age Groups:

2000 to 2015 and 2015 to 2030

(In percent)

Country

Average annual growth rate

2000 to 2015 2015 to 2030

55 to 64

years

65 to 79 80 years

years and over

65 years 55 to 64

and over years

65 to 79 80 years

years and over

65 years

and over

United States ...................

Western Europe

Austria ...........................

Belgium ..........................

Denmark .........................

France ...........................

Germany .........................

Greece ...........................

Italy ..............................

Luxembourg ......................

Norway ...........................

Sweden ..........................

United Kingdom ...................

Eastern Europe

Bulgaria ..........................

Czech Republic ...................

Hungary ..........................

Poland . . . ........................

Russia . ..........................

Ukraine. . .........................

North America/Oceania

Australia ..........................

Canada...........................

New Zealand......................

Asia

Bangladesh .......................

China ............................

India .............................

Indonesia . ........................

Israel.............................

Japan ............................

Malaysia. .........................

Pakistan ..........................

Philippines ........................

Singapore ........................

South Korea ......................

Sri Lanka .........................

Thailand ..........................

Turkey............................

Latin America/Caribbean

Argentina . . .......................

Brazil. . . ..........................

Chile . . ...........................

Colombia . . . ......................

Costa Rica. . ......................

Guatemala ........................

Jamaica ..........................

Mexico ...........................

Peru . . ...........................

Uruguay ..........................

Africa

Egypt . . ..........................

Kenya . ...........................

Liberia............................

Malawi ...........................

Morocco ..........................

Tunisia . ..........................

Zimbabwe ........................

2.5

0.8

1.5

0.7

1.9

0.3

0.7

0.5

1.8

1.7

0.5

1.0

0.2

1.2

1.0

2.6

1.8

0.3

2.2

2.7

1.9

2.8

2.8

2.5

2.9

2.7

–0.2

3.1

2.2

3.0

5.2

2.5

2.6

2.6

2.5

1.6

2.5

2.3

3.4

3.6

2.9

2.8

2.6

2.6

0.9

2.6

1.2

1.5

–

3.0

2.6

–0.2

1.4

0.9

0.2

1.6

0.5

0.9

0.2

0.4

0.9

1.1

1.2

0.9

–0.4

1.1

0.3

0.5

–0.2

–0.4

1.7

1.7

1.5

2.6

1.8

2.2

2.3

1.3

1.5

3.2

1.8

2.7

3.4

2.5

2.3

2.4

1.9

1.1

2.4

2.5

2.5

2.7

2.1

0.9

2.8

2.5

0.3

2.5

1.9

2.4

1.1

1.8

1.5

1.1

1.3

1.9

2.5

0.7

2.4

2.3

3.0

2.5

2.5

0.5

0.6

1.2

3.0

2.8

2.3

3.0

2.0

1.3

2.2

2.2

1.7

1.6

3.6

2.7

5.3

2.0

3.2

3.5

2.5

3.1

4.2

4.5

3.1

3.9

3.5

2.3

3.6

3.3

4.0

3.1

3.8

1.6

3.4

3.7

2.2

3.4

3.4

3.8

2.5

3.0

3.9

3.0

1.4

1.1

0.8

1.4

1.0

1.2

0.9

0.9

1.3

1.0

1.1

0.9

0.2

1.4

0.7

1.0

0.3

–0.1

1.8

1.9

1.6

2.5

2.1

2.2

2.7

1.5

1.9

3.2

1.9

2.8

3.6

2.9

2.5

2.6

2.2

1.4

2.6

2.6

2.7

2.8

2.4

1.1

2.9

2.7

0.8

2.6

2.1

2.7

1.3

2.0

1.9

1.4

–0.5

0.9

–0.3

0.6

0.1

0.2

0.9

1.3

0.9

0.6

0.3

0.7

–0.6

0.2

–0.1

–1.3

–1.4

–0.6

0.7

–0.1

1.6

3.2

2.5

2.6

2.3

1.3

0.7

2.4

3.5

3.0

3.5

1.4

1.7

1.7

3.0

1.2

2.1

1.1

2.6

2.3

3.4

4.0

3.6

3.1

1.3

2.9

2.6

2.9

1.3

3.3

3.4

–1.6

2.8

1.7

1.7

0.8

1.7

1.5

1.1

1.0

2.6

1.6

0.3

1.4

0.1

0.7

0.8

2.4

2.5

1.3

2.2

3.0

2.1

4.1

3.8

3.6

4.7

2.7

–0.8

4.3

3.8

4.3

5.9

3.7

3.3

3.6

4.0

2.0

3.5

3.2

4.8

4.7

4.0

4.7

3.9

3.8

1.6

3.9

2.0

2.5

0.3

4.7

4.3

–

3.0

2.3

1.6

3.3

1.7

2.0

1.2

1.5

2.2

2.8

2.7

2.4

1.8

3.3

2.1

2.3

1.4

1.5

3.1

3.0

2.9

4.7

4.0

4.3

4.1

2.7

2.6

5.7

3.4

5.0

4.5

4.5

4.4

4.2

3.4

2.4

4.3

4.4

4.9

4.6

4.0

2.5

4.8

4.2

1.6

5.2

3.8

3.9

2.8

3.6

3.3

2.7

2.8

1.9

1.7

1.5

1.7

1.6

1.1

1.1

2.5

1.9

1.0

1.7

0.6

1.4

1.2

2.4

2.2

1.4

2.5

3.0

2.3

4.2

3.9

3.7

4.6

2.7

0.3

4.5

3.7

4.4

5.6

3.8

3.5

3.7

3.9

2.1

3.6

3.4

4.8

4.7

4.0

4.2

4.1

3.9

1.6

4.0

2.3

2.8

0.6

4.5

4.1

0.6

130 An Aging World: 2001 U.S. Census Bureau
Table 3.

Average Annual Growth Rate and Percent Change Over Time for Older Age Groups:

2000 to 2015 and 2015 to 2030—Con.

(In percent)

Country

Percent change

2000 to 2015 2015 to 2030

55 to 64

years

65 to 79 80 years

years and over

65 years 55 to 64

and over years

65 to 79 80 years

years and over

65 years

and over

United States ...................

Western Europe

Austria ...........................

Belgium ..........................

Denmark .........................

France ...........................

Germany .........................

Greece ...........................

Italy ..............................

Luxembourg ......................

Norway ...........................

Sweden ..........................

United Kingdom ...................

Eastern Europe

Bulgaria ..........................

Czech Republic ...................

Hungary ..........................

Poland . . . ........................

Russia . ..........................

Ukraine. . .........................

North America/Oceania

Australia ..........................

Canada...........................

New Zealand......................

Asia

Bangladesh .......................

China ............................

India .............................

Indonesia . ........................

Israel.............................

Japan ............................

Malaysia. .........................

Pakistan ..........................

Philippines ........................

Singapore ........................

South Korea ......................

Sri Lanka .........................

Thailand ..........................

Turkey............................

Latin America/Caribbean

Argentina . . .......................

Brazil. . . ..........................

Chile . . ...........................

Colombia . . . ......................

Costa Rica. . ......................

Guatemala ........................

Jamaica ..........................

Mexico ...........................

Peru . . ...........................

Uruguay ..........................

Africa

Egypt . . ..........................

Kenya . ...........................

Liberia............................

Malawi ...........................

Morocco ..........................

Tunisia . ..........................

Zimbabwe ........................

66

17

34

14

45

6

16

10

45

39

10

22

5

27

22

69

43

6

55

71

47

76

75

64

79

72

–3

84

55

82

182

64

67

67

66

36

64

59

99

105

77

74

68

67

20

70

27

35

–1

80

68

–4

33

19

4

37

10

20

5

8

19

26

28

19

–7

25

5

10

–3

–7

40

41

35

69

43

54

58

29

34

89

42

73

97

66

59

62

46

25

62

64

66

71

54

20

74

64

6

66

47

62

25

43

36

24

29

48

64

16

61

57

81

65

65

11

14

27

83

73

60

83

50

30

55

56

40

37

107

73

188

49

89

102

64

87

130

148

86

120

103

59

107

95

123

87

113

39

99

108

55

99

96

116

65

83

120

81

32

25

16

32

22

28

20

20

29

22

24

21

5

33

15

22

5

–1

44

45

36

64

51

57

71

34

46

91

45

75

104

78

64

70

55

32

69

70

73

74

62

24

78

71

16

69

53

71

29

49

47

32

–7

15

–4

9

1

3

15

22

14

10

5

11

–8

4

–2

–17

–19

–8

11

–1

27

62

45

47

41

22

11

44

70

57

68

23

29

29

57

20

38

19

47

40

65

81

72

58

21

55

47

54

22

63

66

–22

52

30

30

13

28

25

18

16

47

26

5

23

2

11

14

44

45

22

40

56

36

85

78

72

102

51

–11

92

76

92

143

73

65

73

81

35

68

61

106

103

83

102

80

78

27

78

35

45

4

103

90

–1

56

42

27

63

30

34

20

25

40

52

50

42

32

65

38

42

23

25

59

57

54

102

82

89

84

50

47

134

67

112

96

96

94

87

68

44

90

93

110

98

81

46

107

87

26

118

76

79

51

72

65

50

53

33

29

24

29

27

19

18

45

33

17

28

9

23

19

43

40

23

45

56

41

87

78

75

99

51

5

98

75

95

131

78

70

75

79

37

72

67

107

102

83

88

84

80

27

83

42

52

10

97

85

10

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000a.

U.S. Census Bureau An Aging World: 2001 131
Table 4.

Median Population Age: 2000, 2015, and 2030

Country 2000 2015 2030

United States ................................................

Western Europe

Austria ........................................................

Belgium . ......................................................

Denmark . . ....................................................

France ........................................................

Germany ......................................................

Greece........................................................

Italy...........................................................

Luxembourg . . . ................................................

Norway . . .....................................................

Sweden .......................................................

United Kingdom ................................................

Eastern Europe

Bulgaria .......................................................

Czech Republic ................................................

Hungary.......................................................

Poland . .......................................................

Russia ........................................................

Ukraine .......................................................

North America/Oceania

Australia ......................................................

Canada . . . ....................................................

New Zealand ..................................................

Asia

Bangladesh. . . .................................................

China .........................................................

India . . . .......................................................

Indonesia......................................................

Israel .........................................................

Japan.........................................................

Malaysia ......................................................

Pakistan. . .....................................................

Philippines. . ...................................................

Singapore .....................................................

South Korea . . . ................................................

Sri Lanka. . . ...................................................

Thailand.......................................................

Turkey ........................................................

Latin America/Caribbean

Argentina......................................................

Brazil .........................................................

Chile..........................................................

Colombia......................................................

Costa Rica ....................................................

Guatemala ....................................................

Jamaica.......................................................

Mexico . . . .....................................................

Peru ..........................................................

Uruguay.......................................................

Africa

Egypt .........................................................

Kenya.........................................................

Liberia ........................................................

Malawi . . ......................................................

Morocco.......................................................

Tunisia ........................................................

Zimbabwe .....................................................

36

38

39

38

38

40

39

40

38

37

39

38

40

38

38

35

37

37

35

37

32

20

30

23

25

28

41

23

19

21

34

31

28

29

26

29

26

29

25

25

18

25

23

23

31

22

18

18

17

22

25

19

38

44

43

42

42

45

44

46

40

41

43

42

44

43

42

39

39

39

39

41

37

27

36

28

30

32

45

26

24

25

38

38

33

35

32

32

31

33

29

30

21

31

28

27

34

27

23

18

20

27

32

22

39

47

46

43

44

47

49

52

41

42

45

44

50

49

47

46

44

44

42

44

40

33

41

32

34

36

50

30

29

29

41

43

39

40

38

36

37

39

33

36

25

38

34

33

36

32

28

20

23

33

39

25

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000a.

132 An Aging World: 2001 U.S. Census Bureau
Table 5.

Total and Elderly Urban Population by Sex: Available Data From 1970 to the Present

Country

Year

Males Females

Elderly

All ages Elderly sex ratio

Percent

elderly All ages Elderly

Percent

elderly

United States ............

Western Europe

Austria ....................

Denmark . . ................

France ....................

Greece....................

Norway . . .................

Sweden ...................

Eastern Europe

Bulgaria ...................

Czech Republic ............

Hungary...................

Poland . ...................

Russia ....................

Ukraine ...................

North America/Oceania

Australia ..................

Canada . . . ................

1970

1980

1990

1971

1981

1991

1970

1981

1975

1982

1990

1971

1981

1991

1970

1980

1990

1970

1975

1980

1990

1975

1987

1994

1996

1994

1996

1970

1980

1988

1995

1996

1970

1978

1988

1994

1996

1970

1979

1989

1995

1970

1979

1989

1995

1971

1976

1986

1971

1976

1981

1991

71,958,564

80,287,243

90,386,114

1,762,775

1,919,638

2,386,002

1,922,558

2,089,529

18,658,540

19,239,340

20,194,431

2,781,700

3,311,565

2,914,404

1,241,873

1,409,663

1,488,678

3,232,096

3,327,513

3,378,530

3,494,512

2,517,816

2,923,029

2,789,501

2,741,483

3,731,186

3,719,889

2,217,658

2,733,600

3,000,826

3,038,844

3,037,842

8,167,184

9,667,100

11,120,389

11,422,337

11,429,857

36,930,897

43,754,734

50,332,668

50,405,185

11,823,177

13,953,878

15,981,442

16,298,622

5,424,345

5,768,584

6,567,861

8,104,535

8,528,975

9,013,665

10,175,040

5,859,472

7,327,774

9,179,593

223,701

244,735

272,021

206,818

251,479

1,858,540

1,912,080

2,236,685

239,820

316,153

301,833

122,137

133,166

188,455

342,732

403,825

452,876

517,841

174,000

221,049

277,493

272,800

365,443

378,763

205,423

283,600

289,051

328,028

331,902

464,200

660,000

716,691

847,910

916,922

1,432,200

2,300,003

2,566,076

3,684,024

586,310

887,799

972,137

1,292,193

379,844

436,202

605,540

557,750

635,970

746,085

1,002,465

8.1

9.1

10.2

12.7

12.7

11.4

10.8

12.0

10.0

9.9

11.1

8.6

9.5

10.4

9.8

9.4

12.7

10.6

12.1

13.4

14.8

6.9

7.6

9.9

10.0

9.8

10.2

9.3

10.4

9.6

10.8

10.9

5.7

6.8

6.4

7.4

8.0

3.9

5.3

5.1

7.3

5.0

6.4

6.1

7.9

7.0

7.6

9.2

6.9

7.5

8.3

9.9

77,366,366

86,767,395

96,667,373

2,103,790

2,241,407

2,646,187

2,023,599

2,207,563

19,728,800

20,560,480

21,728,802

2,904,040

3,478,383

3,124,577

1,313,040

1,483,530

1,567,516

3,342,837

3,461,919

3,534,963

3,670,257

2,543,653

2,998,215

2,926,403

2,893,119

3,989,275

3,974,872

2,449,193

2,968,000

3,284,713

3,401,226

3,405,105

8,887,220

10,472,600

12,054,337

12,435,702

12,466,966

43,700,474

51,187,562

57,626,334

57,373,948

13,722,473

16,215,059

18,315,789

18,529,728

5,489,106

5,881,892

6,749,084

8,306,250

8,838,000

9,422,265

10,731,835

8,771,643

11,672,992

14,388,961

403,229

463,164

533,663

290,237

376,266

3,054,920

3,204,660

3,625,554

317,300

413,686

412,831

182,976

211,705

287,279

474,392

564,329

642,174

753,536

218,000

281,896

360,531

364,313

602,153

618,011

326,340

447,900

486,970

551,982

559,268

847,900

1,171,000

1,286,368

1,476,495

1,560,339

3,909,327

5,966,210

6,960,412

8,329,645

1,248,423

1,897,668

2,222,828

2,602,852

557,526

636,732

867,372

762,300

905,065

1,096,860

1,500,100

11.3

13.5

14.9

19.2

20.7

20.2

14.3

17.0

15.5

15.6

16.7

10.9

11.9

13.2

13.9

14.3

18.3

14.2

16.3

18.2

20.5

8.6

9.4

12.3

12.6

15.1

15.5

13.3

15.1

14.8

16.2

16.4

9.5

11.2

10.7

11.9

12.5

8.9

11.7

12.1

14.5

9.1

11.7

12.1

14.0

10.2

10.8

12.9

9.2

10.2

11.6

14.0

67

63

64

55

53

51

71

67

61

60

62

76

76

73

67

63

66

72

72

71

69

80

78

77

75

61

61

63

63

59

59

59

55

56

56

57

59

37

39

37

44

47

47

44

50

68

69

70

73

70

68

67

U.S. Census Bureau An Aging World: 2001 133
Table 5.

Total and Elderly Urban Population by Sex: Available Data From 1970 to the Present—Con.

Country

Year

Males Females

Elderly

All ages Elderly sex ratio

Percent

elderly All ages Elderly

Percent

elderly

New Zealand ..............

Africa

Egypt .....................

Kenya.....................

Malawi . . ..................

Morocco...................

Tunisia ....................

Zimbabwe .................

Asia

Bangladesh. . . .............

China .....................

India . . . ...................

Indonesia..................

Israel .....................

Japan.....................

Malaysia ..................

Pakistan. . .................

Philippines. . ...............

Singapore .................

South Korea . . . ............

1981

1991

1976

1986

1979

1989

1977

1987

1971

1982

1975

1984

1994

1982

1992

1974

1981

1988

1991

1982

1990

1971

1981

1971

1980

1990

1972

1983

1994

1995

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

1970

1980

1991

1972

1981

1990

1970

1975

1980

1990

1970

1980

1990

1975

1980

1985

1995

1,299,006

1,395,495

8,539,623

10,908,850

1,307,158

1,933,437

253,545

445,863

2,627,918

4,378,706

1,401,510

1,869,010

2,717,168

940,620

1,636,352

3,538,531

7,370,000

8,163,604

11,301,085

107,915,090

157,491,587

58,718,371

83,876,401

10,194,359

16,439,900

27,683,319

1,343,341

1,793,397

2,390,900

2,452,000

36,889,500

41,988,960

43,979,403

45,766,358

47,124,420

48,210,196

1,402,000

2,044,873

4,472,970

9,019,171

12,767,061

14,514,629

5,670,816

6,553,324

8,765,413

14,546,463

1,062,127

1,231,760

1,517,776

8,369,909

10,697,843

13,154,130

17,595,723

115,065

140,316

265,355

444,257

21,142

23,090

3,842

7,085

94,678

138,248

50,650

83,920

137,874

28,540

32,614

84,854

226,000

212,600

305,677

4,183,470

7,081,751

1,526,269

2,486,231

196,839

374,916

800,720

100,705

156,353

205,500

211,000

2,044,900

2,579,504

3,094,757

3,559,634

4,224,745

5,385,903

40,628

69,340

133,071

289,765

446,804

433,128

149,101

182,848

244,103

415,222

30,589

51,202

75,403

128,569

183,694

271,087

536,398

8.9

10.1

3.1

4.1

1.6

1.2

1.5

1.6

3.6

3.2

3.6

4.5

5.1

3.0

2.0

2.4

3.1

2.6

2.7

3.9

4.5

2.6

3.0

1.9

2.3

2.9

7.5

8.7

8.6

8.6

5.5

6.1

7.0

7.8

9.0

11.2

2.9

3.4

3.0

3.2

3.5

3.0

2.6

2.8

2.8

2.9

2.9

4.2

5.0

1.5

1.7

2.1

3.0

1,351,878

1,471,236

8,018,049

10,306,654

1,075,045

1,606,451

217,113

407,527

2,740,046

4,354,801

1,377,670

1,816,460

2,644,759

825,130

1,551,368

2,734,781

5,858,000

6,918,309

9,571,119

98,332,070

142,665,833

50,378,274

73,803,766

10,255,961

16,401,825

27,750,471

1,341,228

1,822,632

2,453,000

2,518,500

37,799,200

42,933,417

45,138,389

47,082,519

48,519,101

49,798,911

1,378,254

2,028,232

4,425,611

7,561,180

11,074,410

13,542,746

5,999,388

6,752,757

9,178,240

14,893,690

1,012,380

1,182,185

1,498,603

8,400,037

10,711,606

13,263,842

17,396,241

165,414

200,823

247,043

358,645

18,128

21,877

3,203

6,479

103,436

140,753

46,990

75,490

138,586

16,290

28,651

63,247

157,000

131,859

222,943

5,186,590

8,260,440

1,494,668

2,545,642

245,422

489,857

981,431

104,050

177,579

271,200

281,200

2,612,500

3,387,121

4,218,737

5,138,386

6,279,911

7,693,917

45,916

79,699

167,315

213,461

327,383

383,029

170,339

198,287

341,658

537,747

38,775

62,722

93,266

253,528

365,207

521,815

978,119

12.2

13.6

3.1

3.5

1.7

1.4

1.5

1.6

3.8

3.2

3.4

4.2

5.2

2.0

1.8

2.3

2.7

1.9

2.3

5.3

5.8

3.0

3.4

2.4

3.0

3.5

7.8

9.7

11.1

11.2

6.9

7.9

9.3

10.9

12.9

15.4

3.3

3.9

3.8

2.8

3.0

2.8

2.8

2.9

3.7

3.6

3.8

5.3

6.2

3.0

3.4

3.9

5.6

70

70

107

124

117

106

120

109

92

98

108

111

99

175

114

134

144

161

137

81

86

102

98

80

77

82

97

88

76

75

78

76

73

69

67

70

88

87

80

136

136

113

88

92

71

77

79

82

81

51

50

52

55

134 An Aging World: 2001 U.S. Census Bureau
Table 5.

Total and Elderly Urban Population by Sex: Available Data From 1970 to the Present—Con.

Country

Year

Males Females

Elderly

All ages Elderly sex ratio

Percent

elderly All ages Elderly

Percent

elderly

Sri Lanka. . . ...............

Thailand...................

Turkey ....................

Latin America/Caribbean

Argentina..................

Brazil .....................

Chile......................

Colombia..................

Costa Rica ................

Guatemala ................

Jamaica...................

Mexico . . . .................

Peru ......................

Uruguay...................

1971

1981

1970

1980

1990

1980

1985

1990

1980

1995

1970

1980

1991

1970

1982

1992

1997

1973

1985

1993

1973

1984

1995

1973

1981

1982

1991

1970

1995

1972

1981

1993

1975

1985

1990

1996

1,513,102

1,665,539

2,257,068

3,744,425

4,941,000

10,272,130

14,010,670

17,247,553

11,213,938

14,820,662

25,173,439

39,192,230

53,854,256

3,173,323

4,464,374

5,364,760

6,052,039

5,904,613

8,927,542

11,211,708

360,701

514,426

674,634

905,685

949,676

494,155

543,108

13,882,914

32,720,158

4,028,169

5,517,769

7,606,489

1,099,634

1,222,260

1,306,601

1,366,092

58,346

68,979

55,778

109,059

173,200

345,047

399,207

518,630

820,687

1,185,585

803,470

1,447,919

2,333,327

139,527

219,108

288,375

324,862

172,482

321,963

472,784

14,033

24,261

53,926

29,216

35,220

23,230

27,635

463,048

1,277,431

125,390

193,224

324,827

99,670

119,891

130,547

148,110

3.9

4.1

2.5

2.9

3.5

3.4

2.8

3.0

7.3

8.0

3.2

3.7

4.3

4.4

4.9

5.4

5.4

2.9

3.6

4.2

3.9

4.7

8.0

3.2

3.7

4.7

5.1

3.3

3.9

3.1

3.5

4.3

9.1

9.8

10.0

10.8

1,335,014

1,528,940

2,296,032

3,888,491

5,265,900

9,372,877

12,855,087

16,078,798

11,978,954

15,736,243

26,801,506

41,172,542

57,136,734

3,501,814

4,851,754

5,775,645

6,368,467

6,703,236

9,786,011

12,302,362

399,378

560,828

694,787

972,506

1,030,857

551,886

605,083

14,425,642

34,283,357

4,030,326

5,574,154

7,852,110

1,214,722

1,358,827

1,441,721

1,505,985

56,084

72,270

79,328

147,891

230,700

457,407

532,949

675,302

1,159,370

1,761,004

1,010,184

1,864,900

3,082,663

193,934

313,023

427,059

503,897

232,676

407,186

593,057

18,497

32,416

69,823

36,717

42,529

33,216

39,724

580,730

1,570,619

154,174

225,243

372,285

138,060

177,647

194,640

225,783

4.2

4.7

3.5

3.8

4.4

4.9

4.1

4.2

9.7

11.2

3.8

4.5

5.4

5.5

6.5

7.4

7.9

3.5

4.2

4.8

4.6

5.8

10.0

3.8

4.1

6.0

6.6

4.0

4.6

3.8

4.0

4.7

11.4

13.1

13.5

15.0

104

95

70

74

75

75

75

77

71

67

80

78

76

72

70

68

64

74

79

80

76

75

77

80

83

70

70

80

81

81

86

87

72

67

67

66

Notes: ‘‘Urban’’ refers to localities defined as such by each country. Individual national definitions are available in the annotations to

respective International Data Base tables.

‘‘Elderly Sex Ratio’’ is defined as the number of men aged 65 years and over per 100 women aged 65 years and over.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000a.

U.S. Census Bureau An Aging World: 2001 135
Table 6.

Sex Ratio for Population 25 Years and Over by Age: 2000 and 2030

(Men per 100 women)

Country

2000 2030

25 to

54

years

55 to

64

years

65 to 70 to

69 74

years years

75 to

79

years

80 years

and over

25 to

54

years

55 to

64

years

65 to 70 to

69 74

years years

75 to

79

years

80 years

and over

United States. . . ........

Western Europe

Austria . . . ...............

Belgium . ................

Denmark. . . ..............

France . . . ...............

Germany . . ..............

Greece ..................

Italy . . ...................

Luxembourg. . . ...........

Norway ..................

Sweden . ................

United Kingdom . . ........

Eastern Europe

Bulgaria .................

Czech Republic...........

Hungary . . ...............

Poland ..................

Russia...................

Ukraine ..................

North America/Oceania

Australia .................

Canada..................

New Zealand .............

Asia

Bangladesh ..............

China ...................

India ....................

Indonesia ................

Israel ....................

Japan ...................

Malaysia .................

Pakistan . . ...............

Philippines . . .............

Singapore................

South Korea .............

Sri Lanka ................

Thailand .................

Turkey. ..................

Latin America/Caribbean

Argentina ................

Brazil....................

Chile ....................

Colombia ................

Costa Rica ...............

Guatemala . . . ............

Jamaica .................

Mexico ..................

Peru ....................

Uruguay . . ...............

Africa

Egypt. ...................

Kenya ...................

Liberia. . . ................

Malawi ..................

Morocco . . . ..............

Tunisia ..................

Zimbabwe ...............

98

103

102

103

100

105

100

100

102

104

104

102

97

101

98

100

96

93

102

101

101

104

106

106

100

101

102

99

104

96

94

103

93

96

105

100

96

99

94

101

98

98

92

101

97

102

101

90

96

98

99

101

91

95

96

99

96

98

94

92

99

99

101

97

87

90

80

85

73

73

101

97

97

116

108

108

89

91

95

96

98

91

100

94

90

91

96

92

85

91

82

100

94

93

89

97

87

91

85

109

73

84

89

97

85

85

87

90

85

89

89

85

88

91

91

91

82

78

70

75

62

66

94

92

95

115

101

103

83

84

89

84

98

85

88

76

92

85

93

82

78

83

85

95

93

89

87

93

82

85

78

109

70

83

95

105

79

72

78

82

77

73

83

77

78

83

83

82

75

67

62

65

51

54

88

83

89

118

93

100

79

74

83

80

97

79

83

62

93

82

91

74

70

76

83

91

91

85

84

87

75

79

80

103

69

86

99

108

72

50

66

70

66

49

75

66

53

70

75

70

67

55

53

54

33

37

75

71

74

126

80

106

74

72

64

71

95

76

76

55

93

75

84

66

63

68

80

84

83

78

77

80

68

70

80

92

69

84

105

104

52

38

41

49

46

35

67

50

42

50

54

45

62

42

43

44

26

29

55

52

53

128

59

106

64

70

48

64

96

77

59

40

94

59

62

56

50

46

72

71

75

68

65

68

53

64

77

87

68

81

117

90

98

104

102

102

103

102

105

102

98

100

104

105

102

103

102

102

97

97

102

102

103

104

107

107

101

104

104

104

105

102

85

108

96

102

102

102

98

102

97

104

101

104

98

101

103

102

108

98

111

101

104

130

92

99

98

98

96

98

98

96

94

97

99

101

89

97

92

94

84

80

98

97

101

101

100

99

95

101

100

97

102

92

84

97

86

90

101

95

88

96

89

99

94

99

89

97

96

100

88

85

81

94

98

105

89

96

93

96

88

94

91

91

92

95

96

96

79

89

80

84

72

67

93

93

92

97

95

90

90

96

94

86

95

83

86

88

78

82

98

89

80

90

84

91

89

90

79

93

86

85

73

77

57

88

92

70

86

89

87

90

82

87

87

86

86

90

91

90

72

81

70

76

62

58

87

87

86

96

90

92

85

87

88

76

87

74

86

82

72

77

91

83

74

85

79

86

84

79

73

89

78

78

66

76

47

84

87

55

81

79

80

82

76

77

82

77

79

82

83

81

63

71

61

66

52

49

80

79

79

100

80

92

78

80

81

71

78

67

81

75

68

71

83

75

67

76

70

81

76

75

68

82

72

69

61

79

41

75

79

52

64

58

57

62

57

56

65

58

59

62

64

60

48

53

42

49

39

34

66

61

62

105

63

89

59

66

61

61

70

61

64

56

63

56

63

58

52

55

53

67

67

65

57

68

52

53

56

87

37

58

69

56

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000a.

136 An Aging World: 2001 U.S. Census Bureau
Table 7.

Marital Status of Older Persons by Sex: Selected Years 1970 to 1995

Country, year, and age

Males Females

Total Single Married Widowed

Separated/

divorced

Percent

widowed Total Single Married W

United States

197755 to 64 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65 and over ..............75 and over ..............198755 to 64 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65 and over ..............75 and over ..............199055 to 64 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65 and over ..............75 and over ..............199555 to 64 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65 and over ..............75 and over ..............Western EuropeAustria197555 to 64 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65 and over ..............75 and over ..............198255 to 64 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65 and over ..............75 and over ..............199155 to 64 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65 and over ..............80 and over ..............Belgium197055 to 64 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65 and over ..............75 and over ..............

9,476,0009,132,0002,991,000

10,277,000

11,576,000

3,969,0009,981,417

12,565,173

4,623,5609,878,000

13,002,000

4,905,000

292,514419,222128,104325,102398,381151,921368,200404,400

81,000

510,104531,595165,281

549,000539,000139,000591,000526,000172,000556,412618,893226,579494,000543,000201,000

18,06727,803

8,290

18,77025,044

9,974

24,30021,500

4,900

41,67436,82210,634

8,109,0007,007,0002,070,0008,439,0008,806,0002,692,0008,004,4919,398,672

3,111,154

7,821,0009,693,0003,353,000

251,872303,413

75,050

282,401288,932

92,455

309,800303,400

45,500

432,431367,496

87,673

323,000

1,298,000

727,000293,000

1,622,000

937,000347,468

1,781,5021,079,851

275,000

1,755,0001,062,000

11,958

76,22642,124

11,910

72,42645,72914,60066,10028,70027,202

121,407

65,842

495,000288,000

55,000

954,000622,000168,000

1,073,046

766,106205,976

1,288,000

1,011,000

289,000

10,617

11,780

2,640

12,021

11,979

3,763

19,50013,400

1,9008,7975,8701,132

3.4

14.224.3

2.9

14.023.6

3.5

14.223.4

2.8

13.521.7

4.1

18.232.9

3.7

18.230.1

4.0

16.335.4

5.3

22.839.8

10,601,00012,968,000

4,968,000

11,606,000

16,396,000

6,773,000

11,166,506

18,676,658

8,511,713

10,878,00018,262,000

8,145,000

418,214712,408270,703464,436717,382318,738406,700762,500201,800568,179

764,113

278,504

492,000831,000327,000485,000898,000435,000508,048

1,025,944

535,978467,000768,000360,000

45,13489,80736,46348,05583,30939,73633,40078,90022,60047,65376,47531,894

7,434,0005,029,0001,070,0007,903,0006,565,0001,577,0007,398,2257,218,0181,964,1307,152,0007,421,0002,057,000

234,142198,134

37,532

287,062189,290

45,590

269,400229,900

19,900

397,082289,108

57,762

263184195185

An Aging World: 2001 U.S. Census Bureau 137
Table 7.

Marital Status of Older Persons by Sex: Selected Years 1970 to 1995—Con.

Country, year, and age

Males Females

Total Single Married Widowed

Separated/

divorced

Percent

widowed Total Single Married W

198155 to 64 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65 and over ..............75 and over ..............199555 to 64 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65 and over ..............75 and over ..............Denmark197055 to 64 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65 and over ..............75 and over ..............198455 to 64 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65 and over ..............75 and over ..............198855 to 64 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65 and over ..............75 and over ..............199155 to 64 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65 and over ..............80 and over ..............France197755 to 64 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65 and over ..............75 and over ..............198755 to 64 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65 and over ..............75 and over ..............

486,328559,796195,638539,184639,393206,173266,499267,785

91,710

259,041317,829

116,038

246,548327,558126,193242,100330,700

63,100

2,133,6082,814,161

916,605

2,829,0632,865,9621,216,803

35,16740,17213,05538,17941,42012,87823,95521,551

6,581

21,44824,953

8,771

20,43825,010

9,558

19,70024,900

4,600

185,516216,482

59,680

264,794213,622

87,804

416,825394,288

110,742

446,888473,136127,024215,864181,551

49,619

206,028220,280

68,576

192,434225,922

75,402

186,300226,200

32,900

1,796,1212,040,539

565,618

2,347,4122,100,203

775,866

21,167

115,149

69,24320,822

104,998

61,994

11,862

55,45733,294

11,726

56,83834,579

11,123

58,37936,03310,50059,30023,30091,896

499,832278,799104,386476,298326,761

13,16910,187

2,598

33,29519,839

4,277

14,818

9,2262,216

19,83915,758

4,112

22,55318,247

5,200

25,60020,300

2,300

60,07557,30812,508

112,471

75,83926,372

4.4

20.635.4

3.9

16.430.1

4.5

20.736.3

4.5

17.929.8

4.5

17.828.6

4.3

17.936.9

4.3

17.830.4

3.7

16.626.9

530,935855,497371,064572,927957,152415,938284,835342,456127,693278,757443,742198,627264,292463,443218,577256,500471,200129,200

2,389,7084,409,4881,897,529

3,117,299

4,535,7452,375,929

38,83076,66836,27328,87770,01634,65227,81547,99819,07216,89844,903

25,116

14,59240,97824,29113,00037,70014,600

194,106434,915203,787235,945388,255

220,211

381,994

311,478

75,727

426,701378,210

84,299

189,277124,958

26,203

191,979160,494

40,903

181,376167,399

45,449

175,500169,600

17,600

1,623,5601,523,015

345,672

2,182,303

1,581,611

495,629

21

21

An Aging World: 2001 U.S. Census Bureau 138
Table 7.

Marital Status of Older Persons by Sex: Selected Years 1970 to 1995—Con.

Country, year, and age

Males Females

Total Single Married Widowed

Separated/

divorced

Percent

widowed Total Single Married W

199055 to 64 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65 and over ..............75 and over ..............199155 to 64 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65 and over ..............80 and over ..............Germany197055 to 64 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65 and over ..............75 and over ..............198255 to 64 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65 and over ..............75 and over ..............198855 to 64 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65 and over ..............75 and over ..............199155 to 64 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65 and over ..............80 and over ..............Greece197155 to 64 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65 and over ..............198155 to 64 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65 and over ..............75 and over ..............199155 to 64 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65 and over ..............80 and over ..............

2,614,9862,773,479

1,114,976

2,878,3003,139,500

649,000

3,136,6003,086,797

879,316

2,737,4003,216,0001,251,0003,265,1333,245,6881,403,9044,373,9004,020,000

839,100443,948418,340423,832549,829189,998631,100617,900127,800

235,586

211,885

76,838

282,000242,300

43,900

135,849132,357

36,175

110,800

130,100

55,800

171,216123,379

57,930

222,400135,000

32,80021,16020,52018,59021,442

7,189

24,40021,300

3,800

2,194,8042,022,866

712,221

2,366,0002,344,500

378,400

2,795,3802,317,143

517,775

2,445,6002,425,600

793,100

2,822,0462,473,976

921,075

3,763,8003,068,800

464,100404,516333,732392,225455,562139,959583,800506,700

83,200

98,060

477,313306,957103,900473,400216,400123,806585,809315,902101,800595,500383,500126,924567,492397,205167,100713,300328,000

13,76060,980

9,090

69,13241,87615,10085,20040,300

86,53661,41518,960

126,400

79,30010,30081,56551,488

9,464

79,20064,80018,600

144,947

80,84127,694

220,600102,900

14,200

4,5123,1083,9273,693

974

7,8004,700

500

3.7

17.227.5

3.6

15.133.3

3.9

19.035.9

3.7

18.530.7

3.9

17.528.3

3.8

17.739.1

3.1

14.6

2.1

12.622.0

2.4

13.831.5

2,902,7484,421,124

2,193,119

3,149,1004,860,7001,465,6004,304,1304,903,7871,680,0543,806,5005,957,1002,631,4003,638,2786,269,3293,158,0124,666,5007,894,3002,173,200

475,724537,928474,844689,372264,206669,000786,200182,400

229,922403,594218,872240,100416,200140,600391,801573,521200,600338,900568,700287,600278,386575,328301,265314,800684,600201,800

27,66027,26829,62632,76310,70037,20039,900

7,400

2,023,7511,512,800

450,458

2,213,0001,780,300

209,000

2,501,6281,547,339

275,032

2,494,5001,702,800

422,800

2,515,1481,874,546

515,681

3,274,1002,422,900

221,700330,596209,620339,831300,341

75,114

505,800333,700

38,200

2121121

313241

An Aging World: 2001 U.S. Census Bureau 139
Table 7.

Marital Status of Older Persons by Sex: Selected Years 1970 to 1995—Con.

Country, year, and age

Males Females

Total Single Married Widowed

Separated/

divorced

Percent

widowed Total Single Married W

Italy197155 to 64 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65 and over ..............75 and over ..............198155 to 64 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65 and over ..............75 and over ..............199155 to 64 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65 and over ..............75 and over ..............Luxembourg197055 to 64 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65 and over ..............75 and over ..............198155 to 64 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65 and over ..............75 and over ..............199055 to 64 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65 and over ..............75 and over ..............199155 to 64 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65 and over ..............80 and over ..............Norway197755 to 64 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65 and over ..............75 and over ..............

2,801,2122,551,027

792,656

2,701,1493,069,244

968,219

3,181,5173,543,7101,390,939

19,24417,886

5,214

15,76819,475

6,355

20,98718,605

7,490

20,00018,700

3,500

225,959246,374

87,866

298,550

274,118

76,604

202,979202,032

58,630

280,975266,190

98,795

1,9791,875

541

1,1521,828

640

1,5411,448

652

1,6001,400

300

25,74729,37210,638

2,349,2351,767,979

440,808

2,373,4862,332,399

610,114

2,743,0582,723,996

934,508

15,556

11,717

2,581

13,32013,483

3,562

17,62213,364

4,464

17,40013,600

1,800

183,355169,746

49,369

122,338490,320271,304

88,985

508,423293,738101,805521,379349,425

987

3,9292,030

730

3,7532,064

905

3,4032,253

900

3,4001,400

7,811

41,32926,362

31,08918,610

3,940

35,69926,390

5,737

55,67932,145

8,211

722365

62

566

411

89

919390121100300

-

9,0465,9271,497

4.4

19.234.2

3.3

16.630.3

3.2

14.725.1

5.1

22.038.9

4.6

19.332.5

4.3

18.330.1

4.5

18.240.0

3.5

16.830.0

3,113,265

4,291,6611,599,7493,101,9064,415,8821,715,5143,508,1945,187,2152,412,277

21,48024,953

8,252

19,58030,07112,00322,35532,07915,30521,70031,500

8,200

240,003330,581137,309

462,317560,307196,832346,690559,459226,393319,232598,889296,759

2,5363,5131,2131,9913,7701,6661,7163,4781,7951,5003,4001,000

22,68956,14127,338

1,964,4721,199,330

231,759

2,106,2521,574,337

328,589

2,514,8351,936,734

521,426

13,220

8,1211,363

12,702

9,3542,002

15,48810,077

2,586

15,20010,100

900

170,526122,789

28,632

2121

21

An Aging World: 2001 U.S. Census Bureau 140
Table 7.

Marital Status of Older Persons by Sex: Selected Years 1970 to 1995—Con.

Country, year, and age

Males Females

Total Single Married Widowed

Separated/

divorced

Percent

widowed Total Single Married W

198755 to 64 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65 and over ..............75 and over ..............199055 to 64 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65 and over ..............75 and over ..............Sweden197755 to 64 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65 and over ..............75 and over ..............198755 to 64 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65 and over ..............75 and over ..............199055 to 64 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65 and over ..............75 and over ..............199155 to 64 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65 and over ..............80 and over ..............United Kingdom197155 to 64 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65 and over ..............75 and over ..............198655 to 64 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65 and over ..............75 and over ..............198955 to 64 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65 and over ..............75 and over ..............

205,426279,469103,545189,896287,792109,513485,407569,226196,040430,710656,804262,793410,001656,389267,774410,000656,400131,900

3,066,2652,797,594

836,948

2,887,5003,353,2001,200,9002,858,4143,572,0101,337,065

22,39630,272

11,613

19,49930,270

11,652

60,35272,69224,54651,96175,83630,69247,09673,10129,61647,10073,10014,600

261,004205,576

54,024

254,700253,000

90,200

243,222274,562102,474

162,185196,651

62,201

148,294202,542

66,783

373,892379,408108,314314,445442,831155,617300,165453,183169,597296,500440,600

69,400

2,625,1232,017,125

477,624

2,378,3002,424,800

735,900

2,338,2942,575,814

827,817

6,938

43,20927,508

6,241

43,93428,46017,19093,51357,70912,89097,29665,161

11,379

87,66857,379

11,700

96,80042,900

144,487558,282302,586122,800595,600355,300

112,999

620,944380,173

13,907

9,3372,223

15,862

11,046

2,618

33,97323,613

5,471

51,41440,841

11,323

51,36142,437

11,182

54,70045,900

5,000

35,651

16,611

2,714

131,700

79,80019,500

163,899100,690

26,601

3.4

15.526.6

3.3

15.326.0

3.5

16.429.4

3.0

14.824.8

2.8

13.421.4

2.9

14.732.5

4.7

20.036.2

4.3

17.829.6

4.0

17.428.4

214,785389,091175,379197,620403,097187,275503,768731,307299,053453,167873,689418,064430,341883,652431,817430,400883,700245,500

3,429,8304,478,1901,758,7653,081,3005,141,0002,401,5003,016,1785,381,7562,595,328

13,94248,425

28,11211,176

44,69826,51841,444

111,360

55,811

29,89292,42256,50027,47182,93650,65627,50082,90033,300

381,665670,920286,784215,300543,800304,900190,734523,576301,632

154,254149,830

37,746

141,924157,295

41,784

353,317277,795

61,415

312,671344,972

97,876

292,651347,240102,240292,700347,200

37,500

2,362,6741,560,502

328,555

2,206,3001,901,900

513,600

2,170,8982,025,176

575,773

212121

An Aging World: 2001 U.S. Census Bureau 141
Table 7.

Marital Status of Older Persons by Sex: Selected Years 1970 to 1995—Con.

Country, year, and age

Males Females

Total Single Married Widowed

Separated/

divorced

Percent

widowed Total Single Married W

199155 to 64 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65 and over ..............80 and over ..............Eastern EuropeBulgaria197555 to 64 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65 and over ..............75 and over ..............198555 to 64 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65 and over ..............75 and over ..............Czech Republic198055 to 64 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65 and over ..............75 and over ..............198955 to 64 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65 and over ..............75 and over ..............199155 to 64 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65 and over ..............80 and over ..............Hungary197655 to 64 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65 and over ..............75 and over ..............198655 to 64 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65 and over ..............75 and over ..............

2,830,9003,615,000

623,800399,856443,012124,090546,879457,842167,096646,909748,674216,008720,089704,266265,668485,282489,675

75,446

471,397557,457162,652567,845515,498192,833

239,000270,100

42,600

5,2005,2611,302

12,003

7,5802,710

30,91530,868

8,322

34,65528,96910,52721,76019,107

2,608

16,80720,147

4,692

22,57218,487

7,412

2,302,1002,588,200

335,600371,413337,884

72,341

496,119

337,949

97,001

560,440552,105128,248614,501533,614175,047409,028356,042

37,850

418,320414,958

94,283

487,560374,827

113,810

111,300

649,500236,500

18,15896,18749,70325,456

106,035

65,53725,694

144,297

75,29029,873

118,548

74,27021,26593,83833,16719,074

108,933

60,85627,575

107,177

67,929

178,500107,200

9,1005,0853,680

744

13,301

6,2781,848

29,86021,404

4,148

41,06023,135

5,824

33,22920,688

1,821

17,19613,419

2,821

30,13815,007

3,682

3.9

18.037.9

4.5

21.740.1

4.7

23.239.2

4.0

19.334.9

4.1

16.828.0

4.4

19.244.0

4.0

19.537.4

4.9

20.835.2

2,972,2005,395,1001,464,200

421,076523,533168,484

585,811

565,291227,723757,775

1,142,571

423,983846,664

1,130,671

511,891

565,195

811,044

181,553564,878800,008280,962685,094819,853357,205

181,300500,500181,200

7,511

7,3971,994

12,27510,024

3,910

35,49070,78530,90230,02355,21027,64216,13534,93310,13731,12150,95518,19929,79247,98023,005

2,141,8002,067,700

225,200325,704254,612

47,626

440,441244,652

61,026

501,161362,731

65,033

554,083359,250

91,946

368,270239,197

15,299

361,430257,228

38,698

433,756231,717

49,790

21

An Aging World: 2001 U.S. Census Bureau 142
Table 7.

Marital Status of Older Persons by Sex: Selected Years 1970 to 1995—Con.

Country, year, and age

Males Females

Total Single Married Widowed

Separated/

divorced

Percent

widowed Total Single Married W

198955 to 64 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65 and over ..............75 and over ..............199055 to 64 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65 and over ..............75 and over ..............Poland197855 to 64 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65 and over ..............75 and over ..............198455 to 64 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65 and over ..............70 and over ..............199055 to 64 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65 and over ..............75 and over ..............Russia197955 to 64 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65 and over ..............70 and over ..............198955 to 64 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65 and over ..............70 and over ..............199455 to 64 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65 and over ..............70 and over ..............Ukraine197955 to 64 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65 and over ..............70 and over ..............

547,931535,389204,680539,776527,464199,768

1,211,200

1,388,900

385,600

1,641,2711,341,418

938,479

1,742,1971,404,164

528,952

3,598,6103,700,3621,998,3966,942,9453,692,0942,329,920

366,460252,865

118,227

1,536,2261,817,7941,057,319

22,28518,887

7,760

21,09016,842

6,594

38,40043,000

11,400

54,07138,95026,39770,90746,28718,61032,25126,02114,470

102,302

35,22920,141

9,1554,1482,128

12,88312,834

7,467

465,530390,517121,514453,667390,600125,595

1,101,7001,104,900

256,700

1,473,3491,043,812

695,277

1,533,8811,081,221

348,848

3,322,8793,098,6711,565,276

6,116,488

2,930,1721,750,402

317,394201,743

86,897

1,434,1561,498,157

811,681

27,561

109,317

71,32729,436

102,433

62,90645,200

222,300

113,900

73,417

241,080205,868

83,049

253,365155,425139,191517,776392,666364,262649,073521,426

19,72940,67227,07455,538

285,300227,721

32,55516,668

4,079

35,58317,589

4,673

25,90018,700

3,600

40,43417,57610,93754,36023,291

6,069

104,289

57,89425,984

359,893

77,62037,95120,182

6,3022,128

33,64921,50310,450

5.0

20.434.8

5.5

19.431.5

3.7

16.029.5

4.5

18.021.9

4.8

18.029.4

3.9

14.019.6

5.2

17.622.4

5.4

16.122.9

3.6

15.721.5

662,671862,052385,184653,691846,458376,704

1,522,0002,172,200

766,200

2,024,3262,207,1761,644,9932,074,6922,322,8831,042,5327,055,1989,968,7786,182,8929,771,292

10,398,320

7,268,664

486,535610,580371,823

2,830,6034,014,9822,488,489

25,59747,27923,65324,07344,03921,843

113,600

181,500

67,800

123,823166,816128,420

118,507

184,703

89,835

411,867

363,730203,761488,703565,746343,289

21,69146,96430,489

157,805123,325

67,845

416,800248,978

52,833

409,295253,434

58,239

993,200703,300123,000

1,345,924

666,087397,829

1,377,955

721,607170,848

3,545,5802,142,027

948,649

5,699,2502,440,0301,186,416

291,920173,707

68,415

1,491,6561,013,444

477,088

111127426521

An Aging World: 2001 U.S. Census Bureau 143
Table 7.

Marital Status of Older Persons by Sex: Selected Years 1970 to 1995—Con.

Country, year, and age

Males Females

Total Single Married Widowed

Separated/

divorced

Percent

widowed Total Single Married W

198955 to 64 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65 and over ..............70 and over ..............North America/OceaniaAustralia197155 to 64 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65 and over ..............75 and over ..............198155 to 64 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65 and over ..............199055 to 64 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65 and over ..............75 and over ..............199155 to 64 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65 and over ..............Canada197655 to 64 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65 and over ..............75 and over ..............198655 to 64 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65 and over ..............75 and over ..............199155 to 64 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65 and over ..............75 and over ..............New Zealand197655 to 64 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65 and over ..............75 and over ..............

2,587,8741,760,8521,098,497

545,204446,861139,676650,931

601,119

732,290812,087281,389710,813816,199928,045875,410295,525

1,124,0551,133,320

394,450

1,180,0251,330,435

478,980127,006

118,528

35,170

29,96415,367

8,774

45,33639,512

11,843

49,77144,95456,12856,22719,38454,12856,74576,19583,76029,16083,03585,55532,27080,37592,38534,990

8,9748,0052,405

2,327,8361,388,448

808,501447,152304,336

76,882

529,859433,077602,022609,784188,195566,398599,208777,515627,260176,600925,650843,940255,565976,260

1,001,765

320,305107,512

87,94821,654

128,685326,937266,538

25,20384,04546,20625,98394,23624,079

112,308

65,73922,934

111,264

32,395

133,350

81,41536,590

153,370

93,03533,670

171,620105,820

5,224

19,07410,368

101,389

30,10014,68427,51318,968

4,745

45,31828,85250,06133,768

8,071

67,35348,98241,94031,040

8,350

78,78050,45513,58089,72064,66517,865

5,2963,501

743

5.0

18.624.3

4.6

18.833.1

4.0

15.7

3.3

13.823.4

3.2

13.6

3.5

15.227.5

3.3

13.523.6

2.9

12.922.1

4.1

16.129.5

3,591,2484,272,9082,891,993

561,775618,134245,906675,286828,278725,232

1,095,493

474,737709,389

1,090,493

996,385

1,126,900

452,260

1,204,2551,505,735

653,025

1,219,6001,842,540

795,925136,617159,917

61,522

202,424203,089

114,439

40,44966,02429,18532,79267,57230,06566,57335,97331,26767,92979,035

115,260

47,80572,30576,30065,00068,575

141,155

73,545

8,869

15,828

6,816

2,148,575

1,110,959

514,048379,001205,434

43,297

473,366307,052528,761476,259132,427507,554469,178689,700421,745

94,615

849,405618,240146,185864,175755,165191,820

97,18862,42313,161

22

An Aging World: 2001 U.S. Census Bureau 144
Table 7.

Marital Status of Older Persons by Sex: Selected Years 1970 to 1995—Con.

Country, year, and age

Males Females

Total Single Married Widowed

Separated/

divorced

Percent

widowed Total Single Married W

198655 to 64 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65 and over ..............75 and over ..............199155 to 64 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65 and over ..............70 and over ..............AfricaEgypt197655 to 64 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65 and over ..............198655 to 64 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65 and over ..............Liberia197455 to 59 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .60 and over ..............198455 to 64 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65 and over ..............75 and over ..............Malawi197755 to 64 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65 and over ..............198755 to 64 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65 and over ..............Morocco197155 to 64 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65 and over ..............

142,167141,021

47,736

137,658157,056

97,992

958,317634,402

1,238,704

948,486

17,77551,86245,43250,08821,859

113,484

122,194146,761157,832332,610373,255

10,149

8,6972,9109,3129,5735,724

37,17733,32048,14983,080

860

2,3172,2282,3231,0051,5411,7401,8471,725

11,022

13,137

114,519

103,446

30,357

108,423

113,310

67,209

874,779514,470

1,120,342

724,867

14,67638,59837,23737,36215,579

105,276106,166135,439

136,110

304,773314,402

5,778

22,38912,903

5,502

25,24820,58941,40782,73663,506

135,776

824

5,4182,3915,606

3,112

2,6708,7943,620

12,23410,54036,746

11,721

6,4891,566

14,421

8,9254,4704,9543,8766,7074,7631,4155,5293,5764,7972,1633,9975,4945,8557,7636,2758,970

4.1

15.927.0

4.0

16.121.0

4.3

13.0

5.1

14.3

4.6

10.4

5.3

11.2

14.2

2.47.22.57.83.29.8

142,566195,846

81,558

136,578215,802150,327899,492667,501

1,259,315

849,250

11,742

37,52536,60337,02915,661

121,332125,828163,741168,526299,453340,641

6,996

14,643

7,4316,048

13,98310,65640,88038,05843,45771,024

323

1,2521,2041,475

663

1,248

1,7111,211

1,724

10,48614,275

101,250

77,77818,60095,71285,41346,923

443,885153,724680,465201,228

7,496

14,53922,80114,740

4,952

75,81349,739

101,139

65,391

132,260

65,949

An Aging World: 2001 U.S. Census Bureau 145
Table 7.

Marital Status of Older Persons by Sex: Selected Years 1970 to 1995—Con.

Country, year, and age

Males Females

Total Single Married Widowed

Separated/

divorced

Percent

widowed Total Single Married W

198255 to 64 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65 and over ..............75 and over ..............Tunisia197555 to 64 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65 and over ..............198455 to 64 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65 and over ..............75 and over ..............Zimbabwe198255 to 64 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65 and over ..............75 and over ..............199255 to 64 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65 and over ..............75 and over ..............AsiaBangladesh197455 to 64 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65 and over ..............198155 to 64 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65 and over ..............China198250 to 59 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .60 to 79 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .80 and over ..............199055 to 64 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65 and over ..............

481,613424,846170,260158,120

118,990

191,330167,260

48,480

144,250

115,930

47,310

190,189161,452

51,977

1,695,311

1,372,9871,969,4881,704,863

38,995,45033,773,360

1,760,680

39,380,26028,717,770

8,0357,5463,7033,9203,3904,3906,4903,5106,4956,9063,5234,7334,5021,616

14,14412,34528,747

4,187

1,158,670

858,010

44,160

1,257,460

645,970

451,518367,417137,207147,150100,740180,140141,600

35,850

127,455

94,86836,815

170,402133,898

40,495

1,595,451

1,211,675

1,864,9851,518,419

33,740,04023,850,350

654,620

33,411,98019,113,740

13,88140,39724,492

5,810

13,540

5,840

18,220

8,8704,5159,2675,2556,016

14,600

7,223

83,804

147,891

74,559

181,204

3,315,6008,534,6601,047,1304,083,4708,623,420

8,1799,4864,8581,2401,320

960950250

5,7854,8891,7179,0388,4522,6431,9121,0761,1971,053

781,140530,340

14,770

627,350334,640

2.99.5

14.4

3.7

11.4

3.1

10.918.3

3.18.0

11.1

3.29.0

13.9

4.9

10.8

3.8

10.6

8.5

25.359.510.430.0

456,984375,217143,225129,470100,420172,480131,950

41,190

126,060122,770

53,440

170,913181,464

68,301

1,339,2061,001,3401,599,5351,249,841

35,626,30037,708,310

3,280,380

36,427,78034,476,600

5,5157,5422,9393,0904,1603,3404,7802,6903,8525,9023,1382,8093,7961,6704,1044,916

13,736

1,360

75,270

109,310

8,710

72,370

104,770

240,762

85,41418,57181,40030,890

113,800

44,280

6,760

76,40744,38314,879

101,725

57,98014,061

577,702208,707743,735344,564

29,271,14016,658,820

234,240

27,982,04012,794,280

6

20

38

21

An Aging World: 2001 U.S. Census Bureau 146
Table 7.

Marital Status of Older Persons by Sex: Selected Years 1970 to 1995—Con.

Country, year, and age

Males Females

Total Single Married Widowed

Separated/

divorced

Percent

widowed Total Single Married W

India197155 to 64 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65 and over ..............198155 to 64 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65 and over ..............Indonesia197155 to 64 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65 and over ..............75 and over ..............197655 to 64 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65 and over ..............75 and over ..............198055 to 64 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65 and over ..............75 and over ..............198555 to 64 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65 and over ..............75 and over ..............199055 to 64 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65 and over ..............75 and over ..............Israel197255 to 64 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65 and over ..............198355 to 64 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65 and over ..............75 and over ..............

14,352,002

9,383,212

17,887,88012,625,093

2,208,4191,439,842

380,399

2,599,5151,572,899

417,437

3,279,7312,188,609

688,422

4,150,0702,618,922

729,005

4,540,6903,142,674

867,636127,355

110,538

141,342169,283

60,465

347,164226,541368,498253,621

35,09619,751

5,848

20,860

9,5952,362

23,88119,761

7,251

56,189

26,118

5,767

113,977118,932

47,364

3,5962,6774,2264,0301,388

11,826,418

6,620,836

15,361,824

9,375,3581,950,3471,128,295

268,882

2,316,7861,251,201

300,153

3,015,9281,787,537

507,540

3,771,2372,124,396

532,776

4,088,2072,518,407

606,681

116,915

88,717

129,478137,302

43,366

2,112,133

2,491,9582,087,5762,947,660

194,512269,286

99,578

249,730301,798

111,812

191,399340,079159,786264,788426,160178,879272,502449,038193,902

4,918

17,656

4,393

24,74414,684

66,28743,87769,98248,45428,46422,510

6,091

12,13910,305

3,110

48,52341,23213,84557,85642,248

11,583

66,00456,29719,689

1,9261,4883,2453,2071,027

14.726.6

11.7

23.3

8.8

18.726.2

9.6

19.226.8

5.8

15.523.2

6.4

16.324.5

6.0

14.322.3

3.9

16.0

3.1

14.624.3

12,841,066

8,928,952

16,697,61012,377,227

2,356,115

1,528,535

406,459

2,649,3231,803,247

478,171

3,339,1752,581,307

836,951

4,473,9332,954,026

916,813

4,817,4583,608,4321,104,720

134,120

113,961

163,422192,019

67,408

58,03132,09359,94850,03520,12512,753

3,749

20,14612,599

2,938

32,65426,825

9,420

40,51221,759

6,372

53,96870,75431,098

3,3103,4303,5304,9512,055

5,965,8132,220,930

9,116,951

3,579,769

932,949354,997

68,887

1,058,867

348,882

58,956

1,618,490

657,722144,331

2,041,873

549,132

90,512

2,655,7171,021,497

194,441

94,42041,604

119,598

79,33615,846

66781

1

11112212

An Aging World: 2001 U.S. Census Bureau 147
Table 7.

Marital Status of Older Persons by Sex: Selected Years 1970 to 1995—Con.

Country, year, and age

Males Females

Total Single Married Widowed

Separated/

divorced

Percent

widowed Total Single Married W

Japan197055 to 64 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65 and over ..............75 and over ..............198555 to 64 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65 and over ..............75 and over ..............199055 to 64 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65 and over ..............75 and over ..............199555 to 64 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65 and over ..............75 and over ..............Malaysia197055 to 64 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65 and over ..............198055 to 64 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65 and over ..............199155 to 64 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65 and over ..............75 and over ..............Pakistan197255 to 64 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65 and over ..............75 and over ..............198155 to 59 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .60 and over ..............

3,772,6003,226,900

876,600

5,784,9825,095,7461,813,5096,990,9855,963,8912,220,2347,518,5697,504,2532,563,989

251,597164,368287,996233,965402,570305,244

98,529

1,683,118

1,478,378

552,803859,488

3,313,787

43,10032,100

8,400

109,141

47,20913,310

176,504

64,36517,428

272,591105,804

22,958

9,8989,3848,6548,7959,8525,7851,936

80,86544,02418,04514,88486,400

3,478,0002,442,700

529,800

5,364,5334,180,1331,278,6546,413,8134,988,3641,645,0436,701,1876,303,8931,936,331

214,974

119,938

255,709178,027368,465245,931

70,060

1,393,6511,079,356

362,656794,801

2,831,735

198,500

711,900

329,200191,339797,467500,860221,829823,176531,680227,297932,077567,389

20,92429,02818,76340,20520,40848,51224,467

204,778352,154171,132

48,028

388,411

53,00040,200

9,200

119,969

70,93720,685

178,839

87,98626,083

254,228128,926

30,047

5,8016,0184,8706,9383,8455,0162,0663,8242,844

970

1,7757,241

5.3

22.137.6

3.3

15.627.6

3.2

13.823.9

3.0

12.422.1

8.3

17.7

6.5

17.2

5.1

15.924.812.223.831.0

5.6

11.7

4,343,8004,107,7001,361,1006,609,4537,351,7512,887,6227,410,5358,810,9283,686,4937,910,020

10,756,569

4,605,588

227,642152,489299,080239,300419,473350,597120,098

1,273,4003,234,616

419,931751,369

2,419,875

78,40048,50014,200

263,400124,142

32,324

312,820204,089

53,258

325,156321,441

86,456

4,2873,5355,4775,0888,5104,9701,804

20,17821,044

9,1627,281

63,724

2,722,2001,281,600

186,200

4,881,6452,694,778

538,231

5,710,5903,569,894

777,384

6,144,3094,634,4641,010,944

122,921

43,179

172,777

71,172

273,984126,996

28,858

809,238

2,030,933

119,092

605,383

1,200,062

12114214215311

An Aging World: 2001 U.S. Census Bureau 148
Table 7.

Marital Status of Older Persons by Sex: Selected Years 1970 to 1995—Con.

Country, year, and age

Males Females

Total Single Married Widowed

Separated/

divorced

Percent

widowed Total Single Married W

Philippines197055 to 64 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65 and over ..............197555 to 64 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65 and over ..............198055 to 64 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65 and over ..............75 and over ..............199055 to 64 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65 and over ..............75 and over ..............Singapore197055 to 64 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65 and over ..............75 and over ..............198055 to 64 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65 and over ..............75 and over ..............199055 to 64 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65 and over ..............70 and over ..............South Korea197555 to 64 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65 and over ..............198055 to 64 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65 and over ..............75 and over ..............

713,283504,464877,576604,964968,578792,595228,270

1,252,033

948,705307,422

59,04230,589

5,840

66,78451,20212,03690,50073,30044,000

783,671458,360894,976539,414

116,991

20,114

13,47940,72733,88629,25224,520

8,051

38,67729,66910,761

3,5312,147

453

3,1762,350

579

5,7003,7002,0001,095

615

1,912

876268

630,558381,080768,372461,399854,546616,185154,003

1,116,273

738,412208,594

50,31421,621

3,347

59,03938,762

7,702

78,10054,20030,500

728,831355,840834,595431,132

74,234

58,108

106,603

63,484

105,292

77,289

146,465

64,72886,573

173,753

85,965

4,7516,5822,0003,7499,5483,6435,500

14,800

11,200

50,993

100,902

55,062

106,394

42,324

4,5033,3024,9934,3877,4915,4251,488

10,510

6,8712,102

446239

40

820542

112

1,200

600300

2,7521,0033,4071,012

165

8.1

21.1

7.2

17.4

8.0

18.528.4

6.9

18.328.0

8.0

21.534.2

5.6

18.630.3

6.1

20.225.5

6.5

22.0

6.2

19.736.2

705,960525,339827,618

595,711

1,029,004

838,298246,437

1,313,4561,108,875

378,595

55,24638,775

11,187

64,30862,72219,23491,40089,00058,800

892,965748,040

1,052,347

906,571283,692

55,31238,09548,83542,05672,61669,60121,44087,63797,03938,167

3,1332,161

527

2,2523,4051,0303,2003,4002,5001,254

941

1,466

913286

461,663207,556580,469269,671693,846366,999

67,126

892,949467,385103,757

28,893

8,7871,325

38,52018,485

2,999

60,10029,80015,600

467,699181,991565,995220,236

32,966

An Aging World: 2001 U.S. Census Bureau 149
Table 7.

Marital Status of Older Persons by Sex: Selected Years 1970 to 1995—Con.

Country, year, and age

Males Females

Total Single Married Widowed

Separated/

divorced

Percent

widowed Total Single Married W

199555 to 64 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65 and over ..............75 and over ..............Sri Lanka197155 to 64 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65 and over ..............198155 to 64 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65 and over ..............Thailand197055 to 64 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65 and over ..............198055 to 64 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65 and over ..............70 and over ..............199055 to 64 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65 and over ..............70 and over ..............Turkey197055 to 64 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65 and over ..............197555 to 64 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65 and over ..............198055 to 64 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65 and over ..............198555 to 64 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65 and over ..............

1,596,591

974,330260,048342,783292,430405,454338,873687,607460,737932,326671,668386,275

1,627,8221,131,407

667,111

951,639684,680895,135801,249967,439955,360

1,380,066

954,926

5,9271,808

427

25,21422,03325,77222,77925,33423,92215,36410,201

5,939

52,84644,51927,40716,694

11,572

32,22444,04722,12320,39928,29118,470

1,499,393

815,153186,012293,162223,007355,413265,274594,563333,654822,471501,902267,797

1,417,897

835,546460,389865,461549,466805,594619,132893,743752,991

1,284,548

748,052

74,968

153,578

73,00321,89945,65621,67648,88454,01691,80877,139

145,231103,989127,917231,174167,344

60,010

117,734

48,186

130,474

41,817

172,800

54,261

180,204

16,303

3,791

606

2,5081,7342,5931,936

13,694

11,353

17,35214,334

8,550

29,16220,168

11,971

9,4745,9089,1317,5969,7569,170

12,966

8,200

4.7

15.828.1

6.4

15.6

5.3

14.4

7.9

19.9

8.3

21.626.9

7.9

20.425.1

6.3

17.2

5.4

16.3

4.3

18.1

3.9

18.9

1,810,9371,665,290

573,460274,747246,160358,507

305,118

721,851583,995997,614853,188528,191

1,723,0751,363,274

860,452946,802817,867914,943969,729975,850

1,157,8871,398,8501,170,704

5,9422,927

834

12,435

11,096

14,57914,81315,945

11,594

25,93817,26810,27956,16330,20517,973

11,55011,765

38,93160,40713,16414,87118,97616,223

1,186,514

440,708

65,165

177,589100,276244,312136,087434,047202,726613,225296,823146,404

1,142,804

536,726274,956638,241308,100614,073388,614693,394481,671

1,017,093

475,642

1

An Aging World: 2001 U.S. Census Bureau 150
Table 7.

Marital Status of Older Persons by Sex: Selected Years 1970 to 1995—Con.

Country, year, and age

Males Females

Total Single Married Widowed

Separated/

divorced

Percent

widowed Total Single Married W

199055 to 64 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65 and over ..............Latin America/CaribbeanArgentina197055 to 64 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65 and over ..............75 and over ..............198055 to 64 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65 and over ..............70 and over ..............199155 to 64 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65 and over ..............75 and over ..............Brazil197055 to 64 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65 and over ..............198055 to 64 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65 and over ..............Chile197155 to 64 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65 and over ..............75 and over ..............198255 to 64 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65 and over ..............75 and over ..............199255 to 64 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65 and over ..............75 and over ..............

1,761,2981,090,850

938,600724,450208,200

1,090,965

987,982590,415

1,129,0771,138,581

386,680

2,080,9061,396,7512,709,6622,199,520

247,633

201,118

60,675

302,711

287,638

92,864

406,075373,449132,292

34,44620,965

118,650

87,85024,000

116,159107,117

64,492

120,783

110,297

36,748

117,992

72,597

143,380

117,384

24,53918,802

5,427

31,29928,954

8,885

41,71637,65712,463

1,650,099

886,618749,600493,150

117,300

896,474706,281395,104888,809812,425243,419

1,758,3551,015,4512,356,3651,668,831

197,296136,287

35,258

241,927197,508

55,420

323,126257,933

81,197

59,431

173,513

49,950

129,950

64,10050,401

155,419120,372

57,121

174,899

95,506

133,771258,351132,353347,749

19,35941,20718,76119,55852,48226,07520,70062,47534,045

17,322

9,754

20,40013,500

2,800

27,93119,16510,44762,36440,960

11,007

70,78850,35277,56465,556

6,4394,8221,2299,9278,6942,484

20,53315,384

4,587

3.4

15.9

5.3

17.930.8

4.6

15.720.4

5.1

15.424.7

6.4

18.5

4.9

15.8

7.8

20.530.9

6.5

18.228.1

5.1

16.725.7

1,793,3261,325,943

992,750876,700291,500

1,191,6871,302,582

826,343

1,319,8461,627,578

648,202

2,043,3821,544,4322,778,5722,470,392

276,181251,027

86,307

344,408371,879137,260462,026503,595207,623

22,03718,206

124,750

110,850

36,750

133,844160,471103,444127,009176,108

74,766

175,812140,333231,878235,135

37,411

37,91213,28843,25553,12521,10958,34663,81327,380

1,335,717

569,358614,800308,400

63,700

755,984452,848222,769807,549522,746

110,816

1,124,890

441,444

1,673,165

793,478151,615

74,80315,349

203,488126,330

28,832

280,729180,658

48,547

1

An Aging World: 2001 U.S. Census Bureau 151
Table 7.

Marital Status of Older Persons by Sex: Selected Years 1970 to 1995—Con.

Country, year, and age

Males Females

Total Single Married Widowed

Separated/

divorced

Percent

widowed Total Single Married W

Colombia197355 to 64 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65 and over ..............198555 to 59 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .60 and over ..............Costa Rica197355 to 64 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65 and over ..............75 and over ..............198455 to 64 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65 and over ..............Guatemala197355 to 64 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65 and over ..............75 and over ..............198155 to 64 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65 and over ..............75 and over ..............199055 to 64 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65 and over ..............Jamaica197055 to 64 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65 and over ..............198255 to 64 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65 and over ..............

395,786299,484345,873784,394

39,35132,70210,80754,51452,041

100,058

73,95923,579

125,908

93,14032,128

195,354146,250

53,80743,59449,52161,420

43,41431,80926,76465,881

4,115

3,5991,2475,2135,4778,1596,5822,0975,6443,9681,3427,8633,228

16,138

11,381

15,24015,029

316,836207,661290,287586,751

32,02922,642

6,291

45,00336,49283,27951,97214,316

108,742

69,58821,124

172,362

116,379

34,41526,39830,69736,874

26,77053,065

14,411

100,880

1,9095,1682,8511,9137,5707,953

14,867

7,0079,040

17,315

8,915

10,00523,400

2,1995,0282,0507,793

8,7666,949

14,411

30,882

1,2981,293

418

2,3852,502

667538159

2,4822,269

747

5,1243,2431,055

787

1,5341,724

6.8

17.7

4.2

12.9

4.9

15.826.4

3.5

14.5

7.9

20.129.7

7.2

18.627.7

5.1

16.0

4.1

11.5

4.1

12.7

403,634342,120352,050831,744

39,16733,296

11,544

56,02755,93394,10874,80225,081

117,092

94,01433,955

199,174159,006

50,36055,25654,97973,341

69,30660,87241,175

107,056

6,4586,2992,3028,7639,852

13,023

11,814

3,9938,2277,8392,9717,5433,788

13,97420,42017,46424,550

207,199105,687203,819308,816

23,10612,145

2,770

34,00121,04653,13824,653

5,524

70,35933,092

7,922

118,131

61,28527,28816,12828,05324,016

An Aging World: 2001 U.S. Census Bureau 152
Table 7.

Marital Status of Older Persons by Sex: Selected Years 1970 to 1995—Con.

Country, year, and age

Males Females

Total Single Married Widowed

Separated/

divorced

Percent

widowed Total Single Married W

Mexico197055 to 64 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65 and over ..............75 and over ..............198055 to 64 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65 and over ..............199055 to 64 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65 and over ..............Peru197255 to 64 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65 and over ..............70 and over ..............198155 to 64 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65 and over ..............Uruguay197555 to 64 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65 and over ..............75 and over ..............198555 to 64 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65 and over ..............75 and over ..............

952,598859,166271,779

1,273,5321,203,2381,675,140

1,556,114

280,616235,807147,746

368,119

323,413125,100

118,100

37,500

141,422138,397

49,013

55,63281,67937,02265,29462,14482,52777,29620,81618,54512,54923,42819,89717,70014,800

4,700

17,79016,131

5,327

823,597645,216177,074

1,113,910

937,252

1,477,3231,206,941

227,278161,290

94,501

307,249231,329

97,00081,10021,900

110,433

97,20830,593

53,600

110,833

50,33969,869

179,373

79,133

234,191

26,79851,95638,42729,66165,962

5,100

17,500

9,7005,090

18,833

11,225

19,76921,438

7,344

24,45924,46936,15737,686

5,7244,0162,2697,7816,2255,3004,7001,2008,1096,2251,868

5.6

12.918.5

5.5

14.9

4.7

15.0

9.5

22.026.0

8.1

20.4

4.1

14.825.9

3.6

13.622.9

977,114

932,239328,790

1,304,6221,353,1911,797,3421,766,379

288,578279,079182,453363,542356,488132,000150,500

59,100

155,862191,265

79,218

81,251

120,540

54,92998,556

117,562

125,817139,195

32,22735,79824,63030,15930,42017,50023,100

9,900

15,92424,851

11,440

623,100392,106102,390860,345617,558

1,226,032

796,040169,416

98,59154,489

232,596139,776

79,50047,60010,90095,95061,44014,451

Note: Data for ‘‘Married’’ include people living in consensual unions. Data for Czech Republic prior to 1991 refer to Czechoslovakia.Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000a.

An Aging World: 2001 U.S. Census Bureau 153
Table 8.

Support Ratios: 2000, 2015, and 2030

Country

Total1 Youth2 Elderly3 Oldest old4

2000 2015 2030 2000 2015 2030 2000 2015 2030 2000 2015 2030

United States ..........

Western Europe

Austria ..................

Belgium .................

Denmark ................

France ..................

Germany . ...............

Greece . . . ...............

Italy.....................

Luxembourg . ............

Norway. .................

Sweden .................

United Kingdom ..........

Eastern Europe

Bulgaria . . ...............

Czech Republic ..........

Hungary .................

Poland ..................

Russia . . . ...............

Ukraine..................

North America/Oceania

Australia. . . ..............

Canada . ................

New Zealand.............

Africa

Egypt ...................

Kenya. . . ................

Liberia . . ................

Malawi ..................

Morocco. . ...............

Tunisia . . . ...............

Zimbabwe ...............

Asia

Bangladesh . . ............

China . ..................

India . ...................

Indonesia. . . .............

Israel....................

Japan ...................

Malaysia. . . ..............

Pakistan.................

Philippines...............

Singapore . . .............

South Korea .............

Sri Lanka ................

Thailand.................

Turkey ..................

Latin America/Caribbean

Argentina ................

Brazil ...................

Chile ....................

Colombia ................

Costa Rica...............

Guatemala...............

Jamaica . . . ..............

Mexico . .................

Peru ....................

Uruguay .................

70

62

68

63

71

60

64

60

63

70

71

69

64

59

61

67

64

65

67

63

69

97

139

133

149

103

87

134

112

67

94

82

86

61

96

126

105

46

58

75

65

83

84

80

77

86

90

132

89

95

99

82

70

61

68

71

71

64

66

65

64

70

70

68

58

58

58

56

54

57

67

62

65

73

90

139

115

73

58

98

70

56

73

69

76

78

81

87

85

42

58

62

60

60

76

64

65

73

67

109

61

73

75

79

87

77

83

79

81

80

74

75

73

80

82

80

69

68

66

71

70

68

77

78

69

65

70

115

84

67

59

84

61

65

67

65

73

82

79

68

73

54

68

66

66

60

71

64

70

73

66

88

60

67

68

77

48

37

39

39

43

34

36

31

40

44

41

43

37

37

38

46

43

42

46

42

49

90

133

125

142

93

76

126

105

56

85

74

67

33

88

117

98

36

47

64

54

72

65

71

64

77

80

123

76

87

90

59

45

31

35

39

39

31

32

28

39

41

34

37

26

28

30

33

33

34

40

35

42

64

83

129

109

64

46

88

63

41

63

58

56

34

70

79

76

30

40

46

44

47

55

51

47

61

55

101

49

62

64

55

49

32

36

38

38

33

30

26

39

40

36

37

25

27

29

33

35

35

40

37

39

51

61

106

78

51

39

72

49

39

52

47

48

31

62

57

60

31

35

40

38

40

46

42

42

53

45

78

40

50

51

50

21

25

28

24

27

26

28

29

23

26

29

27

27

22

24

20

21

23

21

21

19

7

7

8

7

9

11

8

7

12

9

8

18

27

8

9

7

10

11

11

11

11

19

10

13

9

10

8

13

8

9

24

25

30

33

32

32

33

34

36

25

30

36

31

32

30

28

23

21

24

26

26

23

9

7

10

7

9

12

10

7

15

10

11

20

44

11

8

9

12

18

15

16

13

21

13

18

11

12

9

12

11

11

24

37

45

46

41

44

46

44

49

34

40

46

42

44

42

37

38

35

33

37

41

30

13

9

9

6

15

20

12

12

26

15

18

26

52

17

11

13

23

33

25

27

21

25

22

28

20

21

11

20

17

17

28

26

22

21

27

23

22

20

22

21

29

29

25

13

17

17

17

16

16

24

25

25

10

13

17

10

14

13

15

15

13

13

10

24

22

14

13

14

21

14

16

14

15

22

15

17

12

18

14

22

15

15

21

26

26

29

24

31

27

30

30

27

26

27

27

23

22

24

25

23

21

26

27

26

12

17

21

13

17

20

20

13

18

14

17

27

28

14

15

15

24

19

18

18

20

26

19

19

16

19

18

24

17

18

28

26

28

29

31

31

28

31

32

26

30

34

30

28

30

28

25

20

21

28

27

28

14

21

25

17

15

18

28

13

18

16

16

26

39

17

14

16

20

21

20

19

19

27

21

22

16

19

18

19

19

19

28

1

Total support ratio is the number of people 0 to 19 years and 65 years and over per 100 people 20 to 64 years.

2

Youth support ratio is the number of people 0 to 19 years per 100 people 20 to 64 years.

3

Elderly support ratio is the number of people 65 years and over per 100 people 20 to 64 years.

4

Oldest old support ratio is the number of people 80 years and over per 100 people 65 years and over.

Note: Youth and elderly ratios may not sum to total due to rounding.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000a.

154 An Aging World: 2001 U.S. Census Bureau
Table 9.

Parent Support Ratios: 1950, 2000, and 2030

Country

Parent support ratio Parent support ratio for females

1950 2000 2030 1950 2000 2030

United States . . .......................

Western Europe

Austria ...................................

Belgium . .................................

Denmark . . ...............................

France ...................................

Germany .................................

Greece...................................

Italy......................................

Luxembourg . . . ...........................

Norway . . ................................

Sweden ..................................

United Kingdom ...........................

Eastern Europe

Bulgaria ..................................

Czech Republic ...........................

Hungary..................................

Poland . ..................................

Russia ...................................

Ukraine ..................................

North America/Oceania

Australia .................................

Canada . . . ...............................

New Zealand .............................

Africa

Egypt ....................................

Kenya....................................

Liberia ...................................

Malawi . . .................................

Morocco..................................

Tunisia ...................................

Zimbabwe ................................

Asia

Bangladesh. . . ............................

China ....................................

India . . . ..................................

Indonesia.................................

Israel ....................................

Japan....................................

Malaysia .................................

Pakistan. . ................................

Philippines. . ..............................

Singapore ................................

South Korea . . . ...........................

Sri Lanka. . . ..............................

Thailand..................................

Turkey ...................................

Latin America/Caribbean

Argentina.................................

Brazil ....................................

Chile.....................................

Colombia.................................

Costa Rica ...............................

Guatemala ...............................

Jamaica..................................

Mexico . . . ................................

Peru .....................................

Uruguay..................................

8

7

8

8

10

6

9

8

8

11

9

9

6

6

5

6

9

10

8

9

8

2

4

3

4

3

11

3

2

3

3

4

3

5

8

5

5

7

3

8

5

3

4

4

4

6

8

3

3

6

4

11

22

20

21

21

23

19

20

22

18

27

27

23

11

13

14

14

13

13

19

20

20

4

6

8

4

9

9

9

7

8

6

5

20

18

6

7

6

13

7

9

8

9

17

8

10

6

10

7

18

7

8

20

33

33

38

36

39

36

34

37

28

35

45

36

30

30

27

27

21

21

32

33

26

7

11

14

9

9

12

30

7

14

9

10

24

50

12

7

9

14

19

16

15

12

24

15

21

12

15

10

12

11

12

26

16

12

16

16

18

11

17

14

16

21

18

17

11

12

10

11

14

17

15

18

16

4

7

6

7

5

21

6

6

5

6

9

7

9

18

11

9

12

5

20

9

5

9

8

9

11

16

7

7

12

7

23

43

39

41

42

46

37

39

43

37

54

54

46

22

25

26

26

23

23

39

40

39

8

12

15

8

16

17

17

14

16

13

9

39

34

12

15

12

25

14

17

14

18

34

15

19

12

20

14

34

14

16

37

63

66

75

72

78

72

67

73

54

69

90

73

57

60

52

53

39

38

64

66

51

22

26

23

65

28

19

48

100

23

15

27

38

30

30

25

47

29

41

22

29

19

24

21

24

51

Note: The parent support ratio is the number of people aged 80 and over per 100 people aged 50 to 64. The parent support ratio for

females is the number of people aged 80 and over per 100 women aged 50 to 64.

Sources: United Nations, 1997 and U.S. Census Bureau, 2000a.

15

16

18

13

19

18

U.S. Census Bureau An Aging World: 2001 155
Table 10.

Labor Force Participation Rates by Age and Sex: Selected Years 1970 to 1999

Country

Year

Males Fem

25 to 44

years

45 to 49

years

50 to 54 55 to 59

years years

60 to 64

years

65 years

and over

25 to 44

years

45 to 49

years

50 to 54 

years 

United States .................

Western EuropeAustria .........................Belgium . . . . ....................

Denmark . . . ....................France .........................Germany . . . ....................Greece. ........................Italy. . . .........................

197019801982199119961999197119811988199619701977198119971999

1970197619791986199619751982198419901996197019801988199619991971198119871997199819711981198919961998

94.393.492.293.992.893.097.196.595.093.696.296.894.594.494.7

93.494.396.694.193.296.295.595.496.195.896.796.194.192.993.893.896.890.196.296.295.596.295.691.291.7

93.592.092.092.290.890.395.896.394.794.392.292.490.890.591.1

96.393.996.192.791.595.494.995.095.995.095.996.896.494.594.5

191.7

95.198.095.294.392.193.295.693.193.5

91.488.590.188.486.987.092.791.590.086.689.287.785.781.680.3

94.891.693.387.487.792.190.990.891.692.693.293.393.290.490.5

(NA)

90.084.289.286.787.285.787.579.380.1

86.880.681.179.077.978.483.777.365.363.782.379.270.749.252.4

91.187.790.881.281.281.876.970.068.670.486.882.379.873.976.5

275.3

81.174.375.071.775.065.167.858.954.1

73.060.457.954.854.354.844.923.314.216.779.342.132.318.418.6

81.379.362.049.642.054.639.129.918.116.468.844.234.528.730.3

(NA)

61.753.547.845.440.629.135.230.631.7

24.819.317.715.816.916.9

8.03.11.84.66.84.23.31.9

162.8

23.524.016.312.8

1218.5

10.7

5.04.32.82.3

16.0

7.44.94.44.5

33.426.214.010.7

9.7

13.4

6.97.96.06.3

47.564.869.074.976.476.852.862.263.976.739.151.160.177.079.355.571.784.287.984.7

55.066.671.377.281.347.457.164.674.877.130.933.452.264.466.231.849.859.559.860.8

53.061.565.375.478.078.953.757.359.469.230.833.338.259.565.054.465.676.181.982.3

49.458.361.071.880.948.352.260.974.778.3

127.9

28.943.949.951.729.736.244.749.050.9

52.056.359.267.871.974.048.553.551.659.327.627.330.744.248.549.558.366.972.972.7

48.254.154.163.271.542.847.253.767.470.5

(NA)

25.837.239.340.426.330.234.137.138.7

An Aging World: 2001 U.S. Census Bureau 156
Table 10.

Labor Force Participation Rates by Age and Sex: Selected Years 1970 to 1999—Con.

Country

Year

Males Fem

25 to 44

years

45 to 49

years

50 to 54 55 to 59

years years

60 to 64

years

65 years

and over

25 to 44

years

45 to 49

years

50 to 54 

years 

Luxembourg . ...................Norway . . . . . ...................Sweden . . ......................United Kingdom . . . . . . . ..........Eastern EuropeBulgaria . . . .....................Czech Republic .................Hungary. . ......................Poland . ........................Russia . ........................

197019811987199619991970

19801985198919961999197019751980198519961999197119811986199319991975198519921970198019911997199919701980199619991970197819961989199219961999

98.097.496.095.795.1

396.1394.3

95.393.792.692.390.091.990.690.689.688.798.097.593.994.5

1092.6

96.896.494.498.398.297.996.996.598.197.790.088.096.696.192.997.3

1092.11090.1

91.0

95.996.096.095.094.7

495.7493.3

95.293.891.992.292.992.292.092.192.090.798.197.3

191.6

92.8

(NA)

95.794.691.996.096.095.594.594.995.492.983.181.295.192.185.195.8

(NA)(NA)

88.6

91.490.090.284.087.1

591.4587.7

91.790.590.589.291.990.289.890.389.689.297.195.7

(NA)

88.1

1744.7

92.088.184.693.292.791.589.890.191.886.270.072.594.087.176.891.793.987.485.3

79.354.355.452.753.4

(NA)(NA)

86.483.283.284.888.485.584.485.383.384.495.191.5

80.375.7

(NA)

86.580.958.085.084.280.077.277.184.472.246.145.990.981.555.279.380.574.265.2

45.528.021.216.715.5

673.6662.7

72.764.962.561.175.768.565.963.259.755.586.474.6

53.452.2

(NA)

33.639.2

11.1

33.346.328.430.327.543.713.2

9.2

10.683.062.433.435.438.1

1419.0

29.2

10.1

6.53.82.51.9

715.7712.6827.1

23.616.5

813.4

15.2

11.0

8.1

11.3

(NA)(NA)

19.410.7

7.57.4

(NA)

10.315.2

4.5

14.619.5

11.6

8.97.2

16.7

4.04.3

83.8

56.434.915.314.2

1320.7

(NA)

6.4

26.346.453.461.365.6

342.9367.8

75.778.981.983.2

49.668.277.085.684.283.450.459.4

66.973.5

1076.6

92.795.393.779.791.895.179.979.968.679.269.870.478.379.279.593.8

1088.91082.0

84.4

23.930.336.449.060.3

448.7474.0

78.282.083.285.9

55.074.882.987.589.988.161.368.5

169.9

77.9

(NA)

86.491.092.977.388.193.490.490.864.077.576.175.379.278.579.193.7

(NA)(NA)

86.8

22.125.628.735.644.1

546.8561.0

72.675.879.180.1

50.368.877.883.187.685.658.963.5

(NA)

70.0

1728.2

75.483.675.570.179.985.782.381.556.667.455.461.975.971.663.183.8

83.671.378.9

An Aging World: 2001 U.S. Census Bureau 157
Table 10.

Labor Force Participation Rates by Age and Sex: Selected Years 1970 to 1999—Con.

Country

Year

Males Fem

25 to 44

years

45 to 49

years

50 to 54 55 to 59

years years

60 to 64

years

65 years

and over

25 to 44

years

45 to 49

years

50 to 54 

years 

Ukraine . . . . ....................

North America/OceaniaAustralia . . . ....................Canada . . . . ....................New Zealand . . . ................AfricaEgypt . . . . . .....................Liberia . . .......................Malawi . . . . . ....................Morocco........................

19891995

199919711976198119861997199919711976198119861996199919711976198119891992199719991976198619951998197419841977198719711982199019951999

97.3

387.8

89.294.895.994.892.192.691.892.791.695.394.991.892.198.498.196.094.493.487.389.097.696.2

1089.31091.4

86.884.395.397.595.897.194.396.095.0

95.6

497.9

86.3

193.0

94.592.589.8

187.3

89.591.390.793.693.390.891.198.097.795.893.394.290.590.799.094.2

(NA)(NA)

91.892.7

196.1

98.294.596.6

1190.31190.11190.0

89.988.576.4

(NA)

91.989.485.7

(NA)

85.189.188.090.989.986.886.196.395.994.191.989.588.588.498.091.3

597.9598.3

90.491.3

(NA)

96.891.693.3

(NA)(NA)(NA)

78.282.269.788.486.981.376.472.372.584.982.484.481.372.572.292.190.587.578.180.079.281.296.088.8

(NA)(NA)

89.690.5

294.4

94.388.989.5

(NA)(NA)(NA)

32.0

1534.3

28.375.668.453.144.845.746.774.169.168.859.944.746.669.257.945.733.833.550.557.477.968.376.461.880.385.8

(NA)

94.263.368.9

938.1933.5943.7

10.9

(NA)

89.8

22.216.812.3

9.0

10.1

9.6

23.619.217.314.610.3

9.9

21.316.210.910.6

8.88.9

10.440.925.536.533.566.069.783.685.333.542.1

(NA)(NA)(NA)

93.4

384.6

83.341.553.356.259.069.869.544.253.865.273.078.179.933.240.245.367.669.267.171.1

7.5

13.2

1027.81024.7

28.855.567.489.9

11.3

17.932.538.535.4

93.3

498.9

84.3

140.0

55.256.558.2

168.5

73.845.451.759.667.176.378.640.046.652.575.879.777.579.9

3.56.0

(NA)(NA)

33.963.9

172.6

90.515.014.1

1117.11119.01130.1

86.082.770.1

(NA)

46.246.346.4

(NA)

65.043.346.952.157.966.270.635.240.643.769.865.774.273.6

3.14.3

516.0515.4

31.462.8

(NA)

89.418.914.6

(NA)(NA)(NA)

An Aging World: 2001 U.S. Census Bureau 158
Table 10.

Labor Force Participation Rates by Age and Sex: Selected Years 1970 to 1999—Con.

Country

Year

Males Fem

25 to 44

years

45 to 49

years

50 to 54 55 to 59

years years

60 to 64

years

65 years

and over

25 to 44

years

45 to 49

years

50 to 54 

years 

Tunisia . . . . .....................Zimbabwe . . . ...................

AsiaBangladesh. . . ..................China . . ........................India ...........................Indonesia. . . ....................Israel . . ........................Japan . .........................Malaysia .......................

197519841994199719691982

199219741981198619951982199019711981199119711976198019881992199619991972198319891996199919701975198019851989199619991970198019911999

97.996.994.395.469.893.8

96.097.992.499.498.298.798.9

396.0

1096.11095.3

94.298.294.397.196.898.097.290.788.586.084.483.098.498.498.398.197.097.897.193.497.392.398.4

97.396.295.695.661.393.9

95.1

198.3

93.699.799.297.597.9

497.1

(NA)(NA)

93.497.594.197.897.6

1199.6

98.0

192.7

91.5

189.3187.4186.5

98.198.198.098.097.697.797.591.196.192.496.8

94.292.890.190.452.592.5

92.2

(NA)

90.699.398.491.493.5

594.0593.3592.6

90.696.390.095.493.8

(NA)

95.7

(NA)

89.1

(NA)(NA)(NA)

97.397.597.397.196.097.497.186.792.287.192.6

86.082.178.378.449.190.4

88.8

295.2

90.798.096.683.083.9

(NA)(NA)(NA)

86.092.484.689.189.6

(NA)

87.6

286.3

84.278.675.974.394.294.794.093.191.694.694.776.478.165.074.6

66.559.254.654.143.1

969.1

77.5

(NA)

84.793.488.963.763.7

973.8965.0671.4

79.387.576.779.279.787.9

966.5

(NA)

78.266.359.056.485.885.481.578.371.474.574.166.169.553.359.2

38.038.531.534.024.9

(NA)

52.084.268.770.471.230.133.6

(NA)(NA)

742.3

62.969.753.456.356.856.1

(NA)

34.532.221.416.914.654.549.746.041.635.836.735.546.649.731.8

(NA)

16.823.026.829.2

11.8

50.351.3

3.04.7

10.661.287.890.8

320.8

1034.81039.5

39.955.140.559.955.457.957.735.957.660.565.167.552.649.252.956.961.163.664.540.643.041.952.3

14.112.917.621.610.252.454.0

13.6

4.4

10.358.970.681.1

422.4

(NA)(NA)

45.462.246.863.660.5

1161.4

62.2

133.8

51.1

153.1165.8169.2

64.761.962.365.970.771.671.842.242.335.846.5

13.0

11.6

12.614.4

9.8

50.649.7

(NA)

4.7

10.857.150.962.0

519.4529.8535.5

43.560.944.360.757.7

(NA)

60.0

(NA)

43.2

(NA)(NA)(NA)

60.958.658.759.864.266.967.938.237.729.638.3

An Aging World: 2001 U.S. Census Bureau 159
Table 10.

Labor Force Participation Rates by Age and Sex: Selected Years 1970 to 1999—Con.

Country

Year

Males Fem

25 to 44

years

45 to 49

years

50 to 54 55 to 59

years years

60 to 64

years

65 years

and over

25 to 44

years

45 to 49

years

50 to 54 

years 

Pakistan. .......................Philippines. . . . . .................

Singapore . . . . . .................South Korea ....................Sri Lanka. . . . . . .................Thailand........................

Turkey . ........................Latin America/CaribbeanArgentina.......................

1972198119891994197019751978

1983198919961999197019801989199619701975198019891992199619991971198119961999197019761980199419971999197019751980198819961970198019891995

96.089.598.197.589.594.097.6

95.597.997.997.498.297.797.997.893.097.795.894.895.494.792.689.093.195.695.196.2

1093.9

94.2

397.4397.1396.3

94.592.495.897.897.397.894.997.194.6

96.393.997.497.289.795.7

195.9196.6197.4196.8196.8

96.295.796.196.895.296.895.293.694.995.393.092.092.391.995.395.9

(NA)

93.7

497.5497.5497.3

94.992.191.189.283.095.892.495.093.6

94.392.094.196.587.193.5

(NA)(NA)(NA)(NA)(NA)

88.189.689.291.491.993.790.689.791.691.789.989.187.491.888.693.5

592.3

90.7

592.8592.6592.3

91.988.684.982.771.091.787.690.690.0

90.890.491.291.585.890.7

289.1288.4288.9287.2288.1

73.970.766.677.985.485.682.682.484.983.781.077.974.373.081.189.3

(NA)

84.4

(NA)(NA)(NA)

88.082.576.871.560.380.477.679.482.8

85.675.781.078.879.384.3

(NA)(NA)(NA)(NA)(NA)

55.652.548.248.667.968.368.965.671.0

954.5

65.563.456.6

938.6943.3

74.6

954.9

67.8

947.2946.4943.9

83.076.867.459.254.057.251.956.163.2

65.7

(NA)

55.752.756.562.660.660.159.057.354.5

31.928.620.721.735.134.440.639.042.3

(NA)

40.240.335.7

(NA)(NA)

44.6

(NA)

39.3

(NA)(NA)(NA)

67.864.943.933.833.629.117.923.527.6

8.63.3

12.914.137.125.448.156.953.355.357.2

23.245.960.666.638.845.937.951.351.8

56.055.627.332.546.048.3

79.3

1061.5

74.1

378.0383.4381.6

51.846.143.337.732.731.335.338.955.5

7.72.7

13.815.638.724.8

147.5160.4158.2162.3164.0

17.526.541.353.948.559.851.363.560.9

62.262.826.225.239.045.8

79.6

(NA)

73.5

476.7483.8481.9

52.948.248.336.329.725.230.231.953.2

9.53.1

10.813.936.523.4

(NA)(NA)(NA)(NA)(NA)

17.520.430.743.745.257.149.060.460.8

57.255.421.519.332.334.4

73.8

556.2

68.6

563.8567.9567.6

53.648.946.136.429.322.125.427.846.6

An Aging World: 2001 U.S. Census Bureau 160
Table 10.

Labor Force Participation Rates by Age and Sex: Selected Years 1970 to 1999—Con.

Country

Year

Males Fem

25 to 44

years

45 to 49

years

50 to 54 55 to 59

years years

60 to 64

years

65 years

and over

25 to 44

years

45 to 49

years

50 to 54 

years 

Brazil ..........................Chile...........................Colombia . . . . . . .................Costa Rica . . . . .................Guatemala .....................Jamaica . . . . . . ..................Mexico . . .......................Peru ...........................

19701980

198619961998197019821992199719991973198519961999197319841989199619991973198119871994

1998-99

19751978198219881990197019801988199619991972198119891999

95.1

396.3

1096.3

394.9395.3

97.394.895.995.795.692.8

1091.11892.41892.4

97.993.8

1096.2

395.9396.3

95.693.298.394.297.397.997.380.780.195.889.295.596.497.297.196.396.395.295.0

92.3

493.2

(NA)

493.5492.9

94.090.194.995.395.991.1

(NA)

495.1496.0

97.992.3

(NA)

494.4495.9

95.393.298.094.797.7

197.2196.9

80.1

194.6194.9

89.695.396.995.695.797.198.794.496.8

87.7

582.3580.5582.1581.5

88.582.892.490.691.387.1

1186.0

585.3588.2

96.488.7

587.1585.4588.4

94.091.795.291.195.1

(NA)(NA)

78.2

(NA)(NA)

88.093.891.991.991.995.597.388.393.3

82.6

(NA)(NA)(NA)(NA)

82.672.882.181.283.481.6

(NA)(NA)(NA)

94.383.0

(NA)(NA)(NA)

92.490.395.088.894.1

290.9290.9

75.1

290.5284.3

86.291.485.585.686.892.894.983.285.6

73.5

657.5944.6946.9947.5

72.161.566.669.069.272.9

958.4651.7655.4

86.069.6

945.3651.4658.2

87.785.888.581.687.2

(NA)(NA)

64.7

(NA)(NA)

81.585.677.574.177.383.988.575.072.5

49.8

721.8

(NA)(NA)(NA)

42.425.531.527.927.449.6

(NA)

724.4725.2

57.138.9

(NA)

721.1726.7

69.866.963.361.971.464.765.637.952.453.667.168.658.452.052.461.563.234.641.1

21.3

334.9

1048.0

363.2365.8

26.032.245.247.650.125.3

1044.01865.91874.8

23.629.5

1038.8

343.3349.0

14.314.931.221.551.478.686.052.860.985.717.332.640.844.846.122.330.360.369.9

18.6

430.0

(NA)

460.8462.6

21.426.039.747.547.119.1

(NA)

457.5469.1

16.820.9

(NA)

444.2446.6

13.612.231.318.556.4

176.1180.3

45.1

173.7182.0

16.829.138.241.343.019.526.954.468.1

16.5

521.4530.4545.3546.6

19.321.939.338.742.917.1

1131.4

535.3543.7

13.515.5

520.5522.2530.8

12.9

11.6

26.616.046.9

(NA)(NA)

40.5

(NA)(NA)

16.227.531.735.037.617.926.042.957.2

An Aging World: 2001 U.S. Census Bureau 161
Table 10.

Labor Force Participation Rates by Age and Sex: Selected Years 1970 to 1999—Con.

Country

Year

Males Fem

25 to 44

years

45 to 49

years

50 to 54 55 to 59

years years

60 to 64

years

65 years

and over

25 to 44

years

45 to 49

years

50 to 54 

years 

Uruguay. . ...................... 1975

19851995

96.996.597.4

95.294.396.4

90.589.494.3

81.280.089.3

58.951.859.3

20.916.219.4

40.551.773.0

35.346.464.6

29.637.559.5

NA - Data not available.

1 Refers to ages 45 to 54 years.2 Refers to ages 55 to 64 years.3 Refers to ages 25 to 39 years.4 Refers to ages 40 to 49 years.5 Refers to ages 50 to 59 years.6 Refers to ages 60 to 69 years.7 Refers to ages 70 years and over.8 Refers to ages 65 to 74 years.9 Refers to ages 60 years and over.10 Refers to ages 25 to 49 years.11 Refers to ages 45 to 59 years.12 Refers to ages 65 to 66 years.13 Refers to ages 65 to 72 years.14 Refers to ages 60 to 72 years.15 Refers to ages 60 to 70 years.16 Refers to ages 65 to 69 years.17 Refers to ages 50 years and over.18 Refers to ages 20 to 39 years.

Note: For some countries in this table, data ar

eral census enumerations and, therefore, may yieforce participation rates within a country may, in pcountries.

Note: Data for Germany prior to 1996 refer toSource: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000a and vario

e derived fro

ld more comprehensive

art reflect different modes of data col

the former West Germany; data for the Czech R

us issues of the International Labour Office Yearbook of La

m labor force surveys as

information o

well as po

n various aspects of e

lection. The discussion

pulation ce

epublic prio

bour

nsuses. Lab

conomic act

in Chapter

r to 1991 refer to the fo

Statistics.

or force surv

ivity. The user should re

10 touches upon other potential d

rmer Czechoslovakia.

eys are more focuse

cognize t

An Aging World: 2001 U.S. Census Bureau 162
U.S. Census Bureau An Aging World: 2001 163

APPENDIX B.

Sources and Limitations 

of the Data

This report includes data compiled data in An Aging World: 2001 come the countries covered in this report

by the International Programs from data files of the IPC. have produced their own national

Center (IPC), Population Division, population projections, and different With the initial and ongoing support U.S. Census Bureau from publica- statistical agencies generate country- of the Office of the Demography of tions and electronic files of national specific sets of projections for all Aging, U.S. National Institute on statistical offices, several agencies but the least populous countries. Aging, the Census Bureau has of the United Nations, and other For the most part, the convergence undertaken a systematic effort to international organizations (e.g., the of national, IPC, United Nations, and locate and compile data on older Organization for Economic Co-oper- other projection series is close for populations for a subset of IDB ation and Development and the the next 20 to 30 years. This is countries and subject matter. The European Union). It also includes especially true with regard to older intent of this effort is to make avail- cross-national information from population groups, since persons able to researchers a relatively con- sources such as the Luxembourg who will constitute the elderly in sistent, documented set of data that Income Study (http://lisweb.ceps.lu), 2020 and 2030 already have been can be used to analyze and antici- the Network on Health Expectancy born. Because the elderly of tomor- pate international concerns related and Disability Process (see Chapter row have survived the risks of infant to the aging of the world’s popula- 4), the Global Burden of Disease and childhood mortality, their con- tion. To date, 105 countries have study (http://www.hsph.harvard. tinued survival is subject to adult been examined in detail, and select- edu/organizations.bdu/), and other mortality rates that can be estimat- ed data for a subset of these university-based research projects. ed with a relatively high degree of nations appear in the tables in Some ongoing efforts (e.g., the confidence until the very old ages. Appendix A. Since 1985, IDB data Luxembourg Income Study and the Because the effects of migration on have been available in an evolving United Nations Economic projected cohorts are in most cases variety of formats, including printed Commission for Europe Population minimal, absolute numbers of elder- hard copy, mainframe computer Activities Unit Census Microdata ly persons may therefore be consid- tape, and PC diskettes. The current Samples Project ered fairly reliable. IDB is maintained on and made (http://www.unece.org/ead/pau) accessible via the Internet at the fol- Of less certainty are projected popu- involve recoding of data from differ- lowing address: lation proportions and related meas- ent countries in order to enhance http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/ ures such as youth support ratios. comparability. idbnew.html The size of youth cohorts is often

The majority of statistics, including the most important factor in deter- General information about the all tabular data shown in Appendix mining overall population aging. Census Bureau’s IDB may be A, are contained in an International Population projections for develop- obtained by contacting the Chief, Data Base (IDB), maintained and ing countries usually assume a International Programs Center, U.S. updated by the IPC. The IDB con- future decline in fertility rates that Census Bureau, Washington, DC tains annotated statistical tables of will eventually result in older popu- 20233. demographic, economic, and social lation age structures. The pace and

information for all countries of the level of fertility reduction is debat- BASIC DEMOGRAPHIC DATA

world. Available information from able, however; elderly proportions

Estimated and projected population 1950 to the present is supplement- in population projections will vary to

distributions, by age and sex, are ed with population projections to the extent that actual fertility

taken from IPC data files except the year 2050. Most of the projected change deviates from its assumed

where otherwise noted. Many of
trajectory. Projections for developed may be confronted. This suggests a With regard to the age structure of

countries are less sensitive to such need for more analytical attention to elderly populations, potential

uncertainty because of the extent of the assumptions and outcomes of sources of error usually have been

fertility decline that has already population projections vis-à-vis assumed to be minor in most (but

occurred. With fertility now well numbers of elderly persons. Toward not all) countries. To date, demograbelow replacement level in numer- this end, organizational units includ- phers have devoted much more

ous developed countries, the issue ing the United Nations Population attention to analyzing age inaccurafor projections is whether to assume Division, Eurostat, and the U.S. cies at younger rather than older

a future rise in fertility. In some Census Bureau Population Division, ages. Inaccuracies at older ages do

developed countries, changes in in conjunction with members of aca- occur. An individual’s age is often

migration levels could conceivably demia and sponsors such as the U.S. undocumented in some societies

have a greater future impact than National Institute on Aging and the and subcultures, and knowledge of

birth rates on overall age structure. American Association of Retired exact age may not be an important

Persons, have begun a concerted concern. Hence, reported ages of As discussed in Chapter 3, most of effort to use their combined expert- elderly respondents tend to heap on the variation in projections of elder- ise to refine and improve projection certain round numbers (60, 65, 70, ly population appears to result from procedures. For a detailed critique etc.). Many of these inaccuracies can uncertainty about mortality at the and discussion of such procedures, be detected and statistically adjust- oldest ages. Projections require see Bongaarts and Bulatao, 2000. ed, and are commonly accounted for assumptions about future trends, in population projections. and most past projections have not IPC population projections for a

anticipated the continued decline in given country incorporate several Available evidence suggests that the

mortality rates at older ages that components. The initial population elderly as a whole are not underhave occurred in developed coun- age/sex structure usually is based counted in censuses to any signifitries. In the Census Bureau’s 1987 on a national census distribution, cantly different extent than are

Aging World report, projections with or without adjustment as deter- other age groups. In many counmade in 1984 implied that the mined by Census Bureau analysts. tries, the elderly are less apt than

Japanese population aged 80 and Analysts then derive — either direct- younger age groups to be geographover would constitute slightly less ly using reported data or indirectly ically mobile and thus should be

than 5 percent of the total Japanese using demographic techniques — easier in theory to enumerate.

population by the year 2025. In the empirical age-sex-specific mortality, Within the elderly population, howyears after 1984, however, the fertility, and international migration ever, there are strong indications

decline in fertility and the increase rates, considering the range of avail- that women are missed more often

able data (e.g., from demographic in life expectancy (both at birth and than men. In some South Asian and

and other surveys; vital registration at older ages) have been sharper African societies, national censuses

systems; and other administrative than expected. Hence, revised pro- routinely count more men than

statistics). These benchmark esti- jections to 2025 imply a somewhat women in older age groups, in spite

mates form the basis for projected smaller total population, and the of the fact that the estimated life

changes in the population age/sex oldest-old share of the total is now expectancy of women is and has

structure. In countries where reli- projected to be on the order of been greater than that of men in

able, nationally representative data 9 percent by the year 2025. For the practically all countries. for one or more of these variables most part, best-guess demographic

forecasts have tended to be “conser- are lacking, rates from demographic SOCIOECONOMIC

models or culturally similar neigh- CHARACTERISTICS vative” vis-a-vis assumed mortality boring countries may be employed. improvement, with the result that Data on labor force participation, Future levels of fertility, mortality, future numbers of the elderly may marital status, and other socioeco- and migration are incorporated be understated. In terms of social nomic characteristics are primarily based on observed country-specific service planning for future cohorts derived from published census and trends and the accumulated experi- of the oldest old, the example of survey data of various countries as ence of other nations at different Japan underscores the magnitude of compiled by the U.S. Census Bureau. stages of demographic and socio- potential “error” with which planners Although no techniques have been economic development.

164 An Aging World: 2001 U.S. Census Bureau
applied to evaluate the quality of has been made during the past half are included in IDB files to allow the

these socioeconomic statistics, the century in encouraging disparate user to recognize differences

Census Bureau attempts to resolve national statistical agencies to among countries.

discrepancies in reported figures, adhere to defined international stan- As population aging has assumed and to compile information in stan- dards of data collection and tabula- greater importance and received dard formats within the structure of tion. As a result, some concepts (lit- greater recognition over time, inter- the International Data Base. eracy, for example) are more national agencies have begun to internationally comparable than oth- IDB data are not always comparable produce a growing amount of data ers (e.g., labor force participation). among countries, essentially for two on older populations. This is espereasons: (1) complete statistics may To the extent possible, the U.S. cially true in the areas of health,

not be available to allow manipula- Census Bureau has accounted for economic activity, income, and

tion of data into standard formats; statistical and conceptual differ- retirement. As a result, this report

and (2) concepts and definitions ences when compiling IDB country draws substantially on cross-nationvary according to the specific needs files. Remaining deviations from al data and comparisons produced

of each country. For example, a standard formats, and other data by a variety of organizations and

country with only a few small urban anomalies, are documented in the research consortia whose subjectcenters may need a different defini- annotation that forms part of the matter expertise in these areas is

tion of urban than does a highly IDB files. Where applicable, national invaluable to a better understanding

industrialized country that is pre- definitions of major concepts such of an aging world.

dominantly urban. Uneven progress as “urban” and “economically active”

U.S. Census Bureau An Aging World: 2001 165
U.S. Census Bureau An Aging World: 2001 167

APPENDIX C.

International Comparisons 

of Urban and Rural Definitions

Because of national differences in 2. Population Size. This concept required size for urban used by

the characteristics that distinguish treats as urban those places (for countries in this report during the

urban from rural areas, the distinc- example, cities, towns, agglomer- 1980 census round ranged from

tion between urban and rural popu- ations, localities) having either a agglomerations of at least 200

lation is not amenable to a single specified minimum number of inhabitants to localities of 10,000

definition applicable to all countries. inhabitants or a specified mini- or more inhabitants.

For this reason, the United Nations mum population density. The UN 3. Local Government Area. This (UN) recommended in 1970 that discussion of the concept “popu- concept defines urban in terms of each country should decide for itself lation density” recognizes that those places, agglomerations, or which areas are urban and which are suburbs of large places, densely localities with a local govern- rural. populated fringes around incor- ment. For some countries, this porated municipalities, and the The rural population as defined by practice might be interpreted as like, are sometimes classified as most national statistical organiza- referring to a particular form of urban in this approach. tions is usually not defined directly, local government, especially one

but is simply the residual population Within a fairly broad range, the having relatively great autonomy.

after the urban population is distin- choice of the minimum qualifying The equivalent in the United

guished. The UN Statistical Office size or density value is arbitrary, States would be the incorporated

has classified extant urban defini- although original efforts may municipality (city, town, borough,

tions into the five principal types have based the cutting score on or village). Other terms cited by

listed below. statistics regarding the presence the UN include chartered towns,

or absence of various facilities or local government areas, munici- 1. Administrative Area. This con- functions in places of given sizes. pal communities, and burghs. No cept treats as urban the adminis- The variety of minimum sizes minimum population size is used trative divisions (for example, that are or have been in use in in this definition. The remarks municipalities, cities, communes, national statistical programs about the relatively static charac- districts, boroughs) that have reflects the lack of consensus on ter of classifications under the been so classified by the national these matters. It also reflects the first concept apply here also. government, or certain parts of fact that a place of given size in a said divisions, such as their 4. Urban Characteristics. This small country with a subsistence- administrative centers, capitals, concept requires an urban place agricultural economy will be rela- or principal localities. This classi- to possess specific characteris- tively more important than in a fication is based primarily on his- tics such as established street highly industrialized, populous torical, political, or administrative patterns, contiguously aligned country such as Japan. Similarly, considerations rather than on sta- buildings, and public services a size that might have represent- tistical considerations. It tends to that might include a sewer sys- ed a fairly important place in feu- be relatively static and is not tem, a piped water supply, elec- dal Japan might not be relevant automatically changed after each tric lighting, a police station, a to modern Japan. In some coun- census to recognize the decreas- hospital, a school, a library, a tries (for example, New Zealand) ing size of formerly important court of law, and/or a local trans- the minimum required size used places or the increasing size of portation system. A classifica- to record the growth of urban places that have recently become tion of this sort would need to population has increased from important. be developed during or shortly census to census. The minimum before a census enumeration.
5. Predominant Economic Individual national definitions of The Methods and Materials of

Activity. In this formulation, urban areas are included in each Demography, Volume 1, U.S. Bureau

places or areas qualify as urban International Data Base country file of the Census, Washington, DC, pp.

if a specified minimum propor- annotation. For a more thorough 151-68.

tion of their economically active discussion of international differpopulation is engaged in nona- ences and similarities in urban and

gricultural activities. rural areas, see Henry Shryock,

Jacob Siegel, and Associates, 1971,

168 An Aging World: 2001 U.S. Census Bureau
U.S. Census Bureau An Aging World: 2001 169

APPENDIX D.

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