An Assessment of Information Systems

Capabilities Required To Support U.S.

Materials Policy Decisions

December 1976

NTIS order #PB-273462
Library of Congress Catalog Card Number 76-600077

For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office

Washington, D.C. 20402- Price $3.25

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ii
OFFICE OF TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT

DIRECTOR’S OFFICE

Emilio Q. Daddario. Director

Daniel V. De Simone, Deputy Director

MATERIALS ADVISORY COMMITTEE

James Boyd, Chairman, Materials Associates

Earl H. Beistline Julius J. Harwood*

University of Alaska Ford Motor Co.

Seymour L. Blum James A. Kent

The MITRE Corp. Michigan technological University

Edwin A. Gee R. Talbot Page

E. I. duPont de Nemours & Co., Inc. Resources for the Future, inc.

William J. Harris, Jr. George A. Watson

Association of American Railroads Ferroalloys Association

● Members of Subcommittee on Materials Information Systems.

MATERIALS PROGRAM STAFF

John B. Wachtman, Jr., Program Manager Stephen A. Rossmassler. Project Leader

Albert E. Paladino, Program Manager Patricia Poulton, Staff

James L. Holt. Assistant Program Manager Raymond B. Gavert Staff

Franklin P. Huddle, Consultant Gary L. Thomas, Staff

(Congressional Research Service)

CONTRACTORS

International Business Machines Corporation, Federal Systems Division

George Washington [University Program of Policy Studies in Science and Technology

Battelle Columbus Laboratories

The Pennsylvania State [University Material Research Laboratory

CONSULTANTS

Fred B. Wood and Charles M. Lamb

. . . 111
—

T ECHNOLOGY A SSESSMENT B OAR D Congress of the United States EMILIO 0. DADDARIO

OLIN E. TEAGUE, TEXAS, CHAIRMAN DIRECTOR

CLIFFORD P. CASE, N. J.. VICE CHAIRMAN OFFICE OF TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT DANIEL V. DE SIMONE

EDWARD M. KENNEDY, MASS. MORRIS K. UDALL, ARIZ.

ERNEST F. HOLLINGS, S.C. GEORGE E. BROWN, JR., CALIF. W ASHINGTO N, D.C. 2051 0

DEPUTY DIRECTOR

HUBERT H. HUMPHREY, MINN. CHARLES A. MOSHER, OHIO

RICHARD S. SCHWIEIKER, PA. MARVIN L. ESCH, MICH.

TED STEVENS, ALASKA MARJORIE S. HOLT, MD.

EMILIO Q. DADDARIO

Committee on Science and Technology

U. S. House of Representatives

Washington, D. C. 20515

Gentlemen:

On behalf of the Board of the Office of Technology Assessment, we are

pleased to forward a report: An Assessment of Information Systems

Capabilities Required To Support U.S. Materials Policy Decisions.

The report concludes OTA’s analysis of the need for improving the

Government’s information systems to support policymakers. It

specifically outlines possible improved capabilities, alternative

approaches to implementation, institutional changes needed for

implementation, and an analysis of possible impacts resulting from

establishing the improved capabilities.

This assessment was performed in accordance with your request to the

Office of Technology Assessment dated December 13, 1974. An earlier

summary of this report was transmitted to the Committee in February

1976.

— Sincerely,

Enclosure

iv
T ECHNOLOGY A SSESSMENT B OAR D Congress of the United States EMILIO Q. DADDARIO

OLIN E. TEAGUE, TEXAS, CHAIRMAN

DIRECTOR

CLIFFORD P. CASE, N.J., VICE CHAIRMAN O FFICE OF TECHNOLOGY ASSESSME N T DANIEL V. DE SIMONE

EDWARO M. KENNEDY, MASS. MORRIS K. UDALL, ARIZ. W ASHINGTO N, D.C. 2051 0

DEPUTY DIRECTOR

ERNEST F. HOLLINGS, S.C. GEORGE E. BROWN, JR., CALIF.

HUBERT H. HUMPHREY, MINN. CHARLES A. MOSHER, OHIO

RICHARD S. SCHWEIKER, PA. MARVIN L. ESCH, MICH.

TED STEVENS, ALASKA MARJORIE S. HOLT, MD.

EMIL1O Q. DADDARIO

The Honorable Olin E. Teague

Chairman of the Board

Office of Technology Assessment

Congress of the United States

Washington, D. C. 20515

Dear Mr. Chairman:

The enclosed report, An Assessment of Materials Information Systems

Capabilities Required To Support U.S. Materials policy Decisions, presents

OTA’s assessment of alternatives for providing essential information and

analyses in support of materials policy.

The assessment was requested by the Chairman and the Ranking Minority

Member of the House Science and Technology Committee. In both the 93rd

and 94th Congresses, more than a dozen bills aimed at correcting perceived

deficiencies in current materials information systems were introduced.

Two general themes run through these bills. One is that reliable

information is essential to sound policymaking, the other is the belief

that modern technology for handling information provides the means to

improve existing systems.

The following report: 1) delineates the need for improving existing

materials information systems; 2) describes possible improved capabilities

to address shortage-related policy problems; 3) outlines alternative

approaches for implementing the improved capabilities, including

alternative institutional arrangements; and 4) assesses the possible

impacts and public policy issues that may arise with the implementation

of such system improvements.

The results of this assessment have been used extensively by the National

Commission on Supplies and Shortages. The Commission has been urged by

the Majority and Minority Leaders of the Senate, Senators Mansfield and

Scott, to focus its efforts on determining “what institutional adjustments

(including even establishing an agency) are needed in the Nation to provide

a coordinated strategic economic information system and to analyze economic

needs (for resources, commodities, materials, and manufactured products) on

a permanent basis. . . . " The OTA assessment analyzes such adjustments, and

concludes that they would be feasible and warranted.

v
- 2 -

During the course of the assessment, OTA presented information and

analyses in hearings held by 1) the Senate Commerce Committee regarding

the “National Resources and Materials Information Act,” and 2) the

Senate Interior and Insular Affairs Committee regarding a bill to

establish a “National Energy Information System.”

Director

Enclosure

vi
PREFACE

This assessment is an analysis of materials information systems and

their capability to support effective policymaking decisions on materials

problems. The assessment is one element of a broad consideration of

materials-related problems being undertaken by the Office of Technology

Assessment (OTA) in response to various congressional requests.

In responding to these requests, OTA has used the unifying concept of

the total materials cycle to tie the individual requests into a totally integrated

approach. Related projects cover various phases of the total materials cycle

and include mineral accessibility on Federal and non-Federal lands: exploration technology; recovery of commodities from subeconomic resources;

stockpiling; resource recovery and recycling; materials conservation;

substitution to reduce import dependency; and strategies, policies, and decision mechanisms for dealing with resource problems.

The request for a materials information assessment was submitted by

the House Committee on Science and Technology. Specifically, the Committee asked for an analysis of “. . . the adequacy of present materials information systems for the technology of materials supply, processing, and uses. . . .”

While the assessment is in response to the House Committee on Science and

Technology, it also addresses the interests expressed in a letter from Senators

Mansfield and Scott to the National Commission on Supplies and Shortages.

Their letter, dated November 19, 1975, stated that the Commission should

focus its efforts on a determination of “what institutional adjustments (including even establishing an agency) are needed in the Nation to provide a

coordinated strategic economic information system and to analyze economic

needs (for resources, commodities, materials, and manufactured products) on

a permanent basis. . . .“

This report was prepared by the Office of Technology Assessment

materials program staff, under the supervision of Drs. Albert E. Paladino and

John B. Wachtman, with contributions from: (1) a materials advisory committee comprised of individuals drawn from the materials field, academia,

labor, public interest groups, and private industry; (2) several private contractors; as well as (3) numerous other private and public agencies. The materials

advisory committee provided advice and comment throughout the assessment, but does not necessarily approve, disapprove, or endorse the report, for

which OTA assumes full responsibility,

The Technology Assessment Board approves the release of this report,

which identifies a range of viewpoints on a significant issue facing the U.S.

Congress, The views expressed in this report are not necessarily those of the

Board nor of individual members thereof.

vii
CONTENTS

A.

B.

c.

D.

E.

F.

introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ., . . . . . ., .

Literature Review . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

1. The President’s Materials Policy Commission Report . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

2. The National Commission on Materials Policy Report.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

3. The COSMAT Report . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 

4. The National Materials Advisory Board Surveys. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

5. GAO Report on Commodity Shortages . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

6. The Federation of Materials Societies Survey . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

7. Prospective Functional Requirements of an Improved System . . . . . . . . . . .

Review offending Legislation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Interviews with Materials Decisionmakers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

1. Senior Level Executives . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 

2. Aluminum Specialists . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 

Foreign Materials Information Systems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Improved Functional Requirements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

1. Functional Requirements—Supply . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 

2. Functional Requirements—Utilization . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 

3,. Functional Requirements—Supply/Utilization . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Page

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G. Integration of Functional Requirements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

1! Supply Considerations. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

2. Utilization Considerations. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

.,3 Supply/Utilization Interrelationship and Management Actions . . . . . . . . . . .

4. Evolution of Capabilities.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

H. Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

I References. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

IV. POTENTIAL OF EXISTING FEDERAL MATERIALS INFORMATION SYSTEMS TO

SUPPORT THE INTEGRATED CAPABILITIES. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

A. Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

B. Congressional Information Systems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

c. Executive Materials Information Systems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

1. Data Bases and Information Management Systems. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

2. Mathematical/Analytical Models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

D. Required Improvements in Materials Information Systems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

1. Completeness of Data Bases . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

2. Accessibility . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

3,. Standardization . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

4. Reliability/Accuracy. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

5. Timeliness . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

6, Statistical/Analytical Capability . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

E.

v. OPTIONS FOR ACHIEVING THE INTEGRATED CAPABILITIES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

A.

B.

c.

D.

E,

Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Legislative and Executive Implementing Options . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

1. Evolution of Current Systems Without Direct Action . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

2. Legislative Branch Options Short of New Authorizing Legislation . . . . . . .

‘3,. Executive Branch Options Short of New Authorizing Legislation . . . . . . . .

4. Options Through Legislation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Alternative Information Systems Approaches . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

1. Approach A: Coordinated Systems Evolution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

2, Approach B: Directed, Step-by-Step Upgrading of Existing Information

Systems . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. .. .$ .. ... .. .$....... .. .. .. O. O F . . . . . . . . . . . . .

3 Approach C: New Information System . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Cost Estimates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

1. Data Collection Costs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

2, Approach A: Development, Automation, and Operation Costs . . . . . . . . . .

‘3,. Approach B: Development, Automation, and Operation Costs . . . . . . . . . .

4. Approach C: Development, Automation, and Operation Costs . . . . . . . . . .

1. Approach A.... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

2. Approach B . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

‘3,, Approach C . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

VI ALTERNATIVE INSTITUTIONAL ARRANGEMENTS FOR IMPLEMENTING THE

IMPROVED CAPABILITIES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

A. Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

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B, Institutional Arrangements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

1. Institutional Arrangements for Incremental Improvement of Existing

Systems. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

2. Institutional Arrangements for Major Improvements in Existing

Systems: An Executive Branch Location . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

.3. Location in the Legislative Branch . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

4. Location in the Private Sector . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

c. Selected Implementation Alternatives . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

1. Rationale for Specific Alternatives . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

2. Selected Implementation Alternatives . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

/11, ANALYSIS OF POSSIBLE IMPACTS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

A.

B,

c.

D.

E.

F.

Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Impacts on Government . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

1. Support for Governmental Planning and Priority Selection . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

2. Increased Ability of Decisionmakers to Cope with Materials Problems. . . .

3. Possible Improvement in Relationships Between Federal State, and Local

Governments. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

4. Changes in the Distribution of Influence and Responsibility Among Federal

Agencies. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

5. Support for Increased Public Participation in Decisionmaking. . . . . . . . . . . .

Impacts on the Economy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

1. Improved Ability of the Private Sector to Meet National Needs for Materials

2. Clarification of Materials Substitution and R&D Options . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

3. Support for Industrial Planning . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

4. Changes in the Competitiveness of the Materials Industry. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

5. Stimulus to Governmental/Industrial Cooperation in Materials Policy

Development and Implementation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

6. Clarification of Consumer Choices. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

7. Contribution to Land Use and Regional Planning . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Social Impacts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

1. Improved Materials Information Management. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

2. Increased Access to Materials Information . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

3. Concern Over Individual and Corporate Privacy and Control of Information

4. Movement Toward Futures Research and Interest in Alternative Futures.

5. Media Treatment of Materials-Related National Problems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Impacts on International Policymaking . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

1. Awareness of Need for International Materials Information. . . . . . . . . . . . . .

2. Operation of Multinational Corporations. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

3. Increased Ability to Cope with International Materials Cartels. . . . . . . . . . .

4. Improved Basis for Foreign Policy on Materials and Trade . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

5. Stimulation of Use of Satellites for Information Purposes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

6. Support for International Discussion of Materials-Related Problems . . . . . .

Impacts on Public Law..... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

1. Submission and Validation of Materials Data. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

2. Exchange of Materials Information by Government Agencies. . . . . . . . . . . .

3. Application of the Freedom of Information Act to Data in Materials Information Systems . . . . . . . . . . . 0 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

4. Revision of Reporting Requirements for Materials-Related Industries . . . . .

5. Promotion of Other National Policies and Programs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

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—

G. Impact of Alternative Levels of Improvement . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

1. Incremental Level. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

2. Intermediate Level . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ,,...,

3 Maximum Level . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

H. Overall Summary of Impacts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

ES. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

A

B.

c.

D,

E.

F.

G.

H.

I

Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

1. Role of Information . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

2. Reduced Barriers to Participation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

, Wider Range of Participation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

4.

APPENDICES

Appendix A—Materials Substitutability . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

xii

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A. Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

B. Decisions and Decisionmakers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

1. Materials Users . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

2. National Policymakers. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

D. Information Requirements for Substitution Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Appendix B—Acronyms . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

LIST OF TABLES

1.

2.

1-1.

11-1,

II-2.

11-3.

II-4.

11-5,

II-6.

11-7,

111-1.

III-2.

111-3.

111-4.

111-5,

111-6.

III-7.

III-8.

III-9.

III-10.

111-11.

111-12.

111-13.

IV-1.

Iv-2.

IV-3.

IV-4.

IV-5.

IV-6.

Iv-7.

Iv-8.

229

231

232

232

236

241

247

4

8

17

23

28

29

30

32

38

40

52

58

59

60

61

62

64

69

70

71

72

73

74

95

97

98

99

100

101

103

109

. . X111
LIST OF TABLES (con’t)

V-l.

v-2.

V-3,

V-4,

V-5.

V-6,

V-7.

V-8.

VI-1,

VI-2.

VI-3.

VI-4.

VI-5.

VI-6,

VI-7.

VI-8,

VI-9.

VI-10.

VI-11.

A-1.

A-2.

A-3.

A-4.

A-5.

A-6.

A-7.

Possible Advantages and Disadvantages of Legislative Branch Options Short of

New Authorizing Legislation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Possible Advantages and Disadvantages of Executive Branch Options Short of

New Authorizing Legislation. ......., . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Summary of Alternative Systems Approaches . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Approach B Development Schedule . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Approach B Costs. ... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Approach C Development Schedule . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Approach Costs. .. ....., . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Possible Advantages and Disadvantages of a Materials Information Referral

Possible Advantages and Disadvantages of an Location in an Existing Executive

Department or Agency. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Possible Advantages and Disadvantages of a Location Within a New Natural

Resources Department, . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Possible Advantages and Disadvantages of Location Within a New Statistical

Agency . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Possible Advantages and Disadvantages of Location Within the Executive Office

of the President. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Possible Advantages and Disadvantages of Location in an Independent Agency or

Commission . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ..0...... . . . . . 00 . . . . . . 0 . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Possible Advantages and Disadvantages of Location in a Quasi-Governmental Institution. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Possible Advantages and Disadvantages of a Location Within the Legislative

Branch or Private Sector . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Summary of the Institutional Arrangements. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Summary of Key Components of Implementation Alternatives . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Institutional Arrangements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Examples of Substitution Involving Various Classes of Materials . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Examples of Three Broad Classes of Substitution.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Potential Users of Information on Substitution. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Examples of Motivations for Substitution.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Information Requirements for Substitution Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Information Requirements for Substitution Analysis: Those Specifically Required by Materials Users are Underlined. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Information Requirements for Substitution Analysis: Those Specifically Required by National Policymakers are Underlined. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

119

120

121

123

149

150

151

152

162

165

166

168

169

170

172

174

180

181

182

230

231

231

232

242

245

246

xiv
LIST OF FIGURES

11-1.

11-2,

11-3.

II-4.

II-5.

111-1.

III-2.

111-3.

111-4.

111-5,

111-6,

111-7.

III-8.

IV-1,

IV-2.

IV-3.

IV-4.

v-1.

v-2.

V-3.

V-4,

A-I.

A-2.

xv
SUMMARY
SUMMARY

A. BACKGROUND

The processing and use of materials account for almost 50 percent of the U.S. Gross

National Product, some $576 billion. In 1973,

materials-oriented sectors employed over 34

million workers—45 percent of the full-time

work force. In 1973, these sectors consumed

over 80 percent of the total value of all U.S.

imports. Significantly, materials imports have

been rising since 1967, and there have been

periodic scarcity-related situations since the

1950’s. But it was not until the 1973 oil embargo that many people realized the United

States could in fact run short of some vital

materia1s, especially those from foreign

sources of supply.

To address emerging problems, and to provide materials at reasonable prices throughout

the mine-to-consumer process requires effective management, and effective management

in turn requires a broad spectrum of information and analysis. Scientists and engineers

need technical data2 on materials properties

and processes. Businessmen need information

on materials supply and demand. Government

policy makers need information and analysis to

decide whether emerging materials problems

can be solved by the existing market system or

whether some type of Government action in

support of the market is required.

In response to the need for effective

management as well as for timely information

and analysis, a large number of formal and informal materials information systems have

been developed, both in the public and private

sectors. Table 1 indicates the diversity of

materials activities in just the public sector

which depend upon these systems for information and analysis.

These information systems have served the

Nation well for many years. However, new

issues, like those surrounding the availability

of imported materials. have raised questions

regarding their continuing effectiveness. Not

only are concerns about potential scarcities

and outright shortages intensifying, but

policy makers must deal today with a wide

range of difficult and interrelated questions

for which existing information systems were

not developed. For example, will a shortage in

a particular critical material develop and

when ? Where will the impact be felt most

severely ? How might affected industries ease

the resulting economic distortions? What

policy options (stockpiling. conservation,

substitution, expanded production capacity,

export controls. import tariffs, price controls,

subsidies. research and development grants.

Federal land leasing. etc.) might be adopted?

m;l tf’ri~lls, th~’ pnpulat inns nf (: it if’s, dnd t hf’ (1 i m(’ns ions of 1,1 n(l

massf’s IIei ng prima ri ly numerica 1. (la Iil :1 rf~ f,] I rl \ rf>,i(l i I L storf’(1

an(l manipulated in alltnmat(’(i s~st(jms lnf(~rn],itlon IS tht,

broi~dcr class of knowledge. (~ncom p:] ss i n~ j (] (i~ m(~ n t \ l’x -

pf:r]on(:c, :]rt. h[>hal’]or],]] (:{)nsi(l~~r,ltions. ct(; Ex,lmplcs in(:lt]d~’

di rw t ions on how to (lo somf’t hl n~ (~xpress]ons of pol i(: ~’, S(X; I(I I

(:ons I(i~I r:] t Ions (’st hf’ t i t:s, :1 I t [~rn,] t i lf>s Hc(:t] us(~ i t Is (~ xprvsst’d i n

w’or(is, t hf’ I)r(m(lf’r ,1s pfv: ts of ‘ I n form:] t ion ,1 r{’ mor(” d i ffi(: II 1 t to

m(’(:ha n i ze Dilt ‘I :) rf> ,1 (:o tr~or~. of i n form ii t Ion Thcw cons i(if” r,]

tions arc significant wh(>n onc (:nnt(’nlpliltf~s thr impl(’m[’nliit ion

.

of a n il ut om;f tfd i n form,l t ion systf’m
SUMMARY

Table 1: Selected Examples of Government Materials Activities

Policymaking Activity Examples of Agencies Currently Involved

Support to domestic production . . . . . DOD, GSA, ERDA, NBS, Bureau of Mines

Development of new material s DOD, Bureau of Mines, Forest Serv , ERDA, NSF, EPA, FEA, DOI,

DOA, CEQ, DOC

Conservation, substitution, and recycling of

materials. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . EPA, FEA, DOI, DOA, CEQ, DOD

Data collection and analysis. ... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . DOA, Bureau of the Census, Tariff Comm,, Bureau of Mines, U.S.

Geological Survey

Policy, planning, and coordination. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . , . . . . . Congress, DOA, DOI, OMB, CEA

Control and regulation activities. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Ofs. of Export Admin., Nuclear Regulatory Agency, MESA, DOA

Monitoring of international activities. , . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Department of State, DOA, DOC

Fiscal monetary and trade actions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Dept of Treasury, CEA, FRB, DOA

Adapted from: Meyer J. Harron and John D. Crawford, Government Materials Activities, Washington, D. C.: Federal Preparedness

Agency, July 1975

Finally, each question must be considered

within the context of specific materials properties and characteristics, as well as changing

domestic and international political situations.

B. SCOPE AND OBJECTIVES

The purpose of this assessment is to provide

background and analysis so that Congress can

consider: (1) how adequate existing materials

information systems are in supporting governmental policymaking, particularly in regard to

potential scarcities or outright shortages; (z)

what improvements, if any, are needed to furnish policy makers with the information and

analysis they need to deal with scarcities or

outright shortages, and (3) what impacts, if

any, might stem from such improvements.

In contrast with past studies which considered only isolated aspects of materials information, this assessment addresses materials

information in a comprehensive manner by

looking at the demand, supply, and other related factors influencing materials flow

throughout the materials cycle—from exploration, mining, production, utilization, and

recycling to eventual disposal.

The assessment was thus organized and

conducted to address the following questions:

●

●

●

●

●

Are information systems which currently

support Federal materials policymaking

adequate to address complex materials

problems?

If the systems cannot provide the needed

capabilities, what kind of improvements

are required ?

How might these improvements be

achieved—by what organizationa l

authority, and under what kinds of institutional arrangements?

What impacts, if any (institutional,

economic, social, international, and

legal), might result from implementing

such improvements?

Finally, what public policy issues might

accompany such improvements, if implemented?

C. IMPROVEMENTS REQUIRED IN EXISTING MATERIALS

INFORMATION SYSTEMS

In view of the growing importance of dealing with them,

materials issues and the role of public policy in tion systems were

4

existing materials in formafound to be inadequate to
SUMMARY Y

support Federal policy makers responsible for

anticipating and coping with scarcities or outright shortages. The assessment found that

some of the analytical and coordinative functions needed to address these new issues were

performed inadequately; some not at all. It

should be emphasized, though, that these

limitations result not so much from a lack of

data, as from the stringent requirements for information management, analysis, and coordination associated with the increasingly complex problems now facing policy makers. In

particular, the Government’s materials information services are limited in their ability to

address issues of supply and demand because

they are neither organized or managed within a comprehensive, integrated framework,

The following inadequacies in existing

materials information systems were identified:

●

●

●

●

●

Lack of consistent, standardized data

definitions and formats, which inhibit aggregation of data, analysis, and exchange

among users (often an interested official

does not know that the information he

seeks exists, or if he does know, where it

can be found in another agency ,

differences in format and definitions

often make it hard for him to understand

the data);

Incomplete coverage and lack of current

data bases, particularly with respect to

data on foreign resources, reserves, production, and consumption;

Inadequate analytical models and techniques for projecting the effects of

changes in supply and demand;

Reporting formats that do not meet the

practical needs of decisionmakers; and

Inability to respond quickly to complex,

policy-oriented questions.

These shortcomings apply in varying

degrees to most existing systems, However,

they are more evident in those systems handling nonrenewable resources, where responsibility is shared by a larger number of agencies, than in those systems which handle

renewable resources like timber and natural

fibers.

In order to improve current Government

materials information systems, it is not sufficient merely to develop new, or improve existing, data gathering and analysis functions:

they must be organized and operated within

an integrated framework. Such a framework

could enable policy makers to understand and

evaluate the principal factors influencing

materials supply and demand in their proper

perspective. While these improvements WOUId

be designed to address specific problems concerning scarcities and materials shortages,

they could also be used to address the complete spectrum of materials-related issues.

The following analytical functions were

identified through a detailed literature search

and an extensive series of interviews as being

basic requirements for Federal decision makers

responsible for addressing materials policy:

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

Monitoring and projecting inventories of

resources and reserves;

Monitoring and projecting the status of

industrial stocks as well as strategic and

economic stockpiles;

Monitoring and projecting imports and

exports;

Monitoring and projecting the status of

recycled materials;

Monitoring and projecting quantities of

materials produced and available production capacity;

Monitoring and projecting quantities of

materials consumed in end products;

Forecasting supply

Forecasting demand; and

Forecasting the interaction of price, supply, and demand.

Of course, other analytical functions could

be added to the basic set listed above to provide a more comprehensive assessment of

policy alternatives, covering such considerations, for example, as the possible impacts on

5
the materials cycle of changes in availability of

transportation, trained personnel, and capital.

Implementing these analytical functions

within an integrated framework could provide

the improved capabilities to indicate what

quantities of material are likely to be produced

and used at each stage of the materials cycle,

The Government policy makers could then use

these improved capabilities to decide whether

or not the market could absorb the impacts of

scarcities or outright shortages. If it could not,

and unacceptable dislocations in the economy

might occur, then the improved capabilities

could be used to test the effectiveness of alternative Government responses in averting or

alleviating the scarcity or shortage situation.

These improved capabilities will not be

realized by simply allowing existing systems

to evolve, however, these systems do constitute a strong base on which to make improvements, Some of the current systems, in

particular those used for forecastin g

agricultural food and fiber commodities, have

been in development for over 40 years. Other

systems, covering minerals and metals, are

rapidly undergoing improvement; in fact many

of the existing systems are either performing

or could be performing some of the necessary

monitoring and projecting functions identified

above.

D. OPTIONS FOR IMPROVING MATERIALS

INFORMATION

Four possible options for providing

materials information systems capabilities

were identified and assessed as follows:

1. Evolution of Current Systems Without

Direct Action

The first option available to Congress and

the President is to do nothing, that is, to let

current materials information systems continue to evolve without direct intervention.

This option assumes that such existing limitations as the lack of consistency or standardized

data definitions and formats would be

resolved in time to deal effectively with

emerging issues.

2. Legislative Branch Options Short of

New Authorizing Legislation

Congress could take a number of possible

options short of legislation to provide various

kinds of improved materials information and

analysis. First, Congress has the ability to act

through existing congressional offices and

agencies which already have a general mandate compatible, at least in part, with the need

for improved materials information and

analysis. Second, Congress has the ability to

provide improved materials information via

6

CAPABILITIES

the executive branch through congressional

hearings, exercise of oversight and investigative powers, or congressional resolutions requesting executive branch action. Third, individual members of Congress can issue policy

statements designed to stimulate private sector

efforts toward providing improved materials

information.

3. Executive Branch Options Short of

New Authorizing Legislation

Another option is to make use of the power

of the executive branch. First, a Presidential

proclamation or policy statement—while not

having the force of a law-can set an overall

direction towards improving materials information. Although the President’s power to

issue Executive orders has been restricted by

Congress, some materials information needs

can also be met through Executive or agency

order. Another option could involve grants

and contracts to the private sector to improve

information capabilities,

4. Options Requiring New Authorizing

Legislation

The first three options can be implemented

within the framework of existing systems and
institutions, This last option assumes that

some type of change in existing materials information systems is necessary. Underlying

this option is the assumption that upgrading

current Government materials information

systems would be beneficial to the Nation in

dealing with problems of materials supply and

demand. While the existing information

systems do constitute a base on which to build,

they are fragmented and dispersed throughout

the public and private sectors and ar e

programmed for many diverse purposes.

In order to illustrate how this last option

might be implemented, three possible systems

approaches for implementing the improved

capabilities were defined in the assessment

and are discussed as follows:

(a) Systems Approach A.—The establishment of an interagency Federal committee or

congressionally authorized group t o

standardize the formats of the current

materials information systems. Under this

approach, various agencies would maintain

their present information systems, but improved coordination would encourage increased communication and cooperation.

Agencies could be assigned additional responsibilities. such as collection of new data, which

would be required to improve overall

capabilities. This approach involves little, if

any, organizational change.

(b) Systems Approach B.—The creation

of a full-time organization to make step-bystep improvements in existing information

systems and add new supplementar y

capabilities as required. The organization

would closely monitor the development of existing systems and direct and focus activity required to improve overall capabilities. It would

determine what resources were needed. compare them with present capabilities, and then

fill the gaps by assuming responsibility itself

or assigning it to other agencies.

(c) Systems Approach C.—The creation

of a central program management office to

first design the improved capabilities from

the “top-down” and then implement the new

design, using portions of existing information systems whenever possible. This

central management group would then direct

the revised Federal materials information

system.

Seven institutional arrangements were

identified as possible means of implementing

the three systems approaches discussed above.

An analysis was then undertaken to determine

where the improved capabilities could be located. The possibilities of locating them in the

private sector and within a quasi-governmental institution were considered; however, it

was determined that the executive branch was

the most appropriate location,

The seven institutional arrangements are

described in table 11. To differing degrees. all

of these arrangements could assist in providing the improved information systems

capabilities. It should also be noted that each

institutional arrangement involves progressively more authority than the preceding

arrangement.

Under approach A, an interagency Federal

committee or congressionally authorized

group would establish a Materials Information

Referral Office or a Materials Information

Coordinating Board. The new groups would be

located in existing agencies, most probably the

Departments of Commerce or Interior, or

perhaps within the Executive Office of the

President. A Materials Information Referral

Office would direct information queries to the

appropriate information services in the public

or private sectors and survey materials

publications. It would, in essence, be a

clearinghouse.

A Materials Information Coordinating

Board would guide the operations and incremental improvements of existing information

systems. The board would monitor the

systems and suggest operational and upgrading guidelines. All of the board’s proposals

would be advisory in nature. Decision making

powers would remain in the various

but the board would promote more

operation and improved cooperation

existing systems.

agencies

uniform

between

7
.

SUMMARY

Table 2.—Alternative Institutional Arrangements

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Materials Materials Bureau of Materials

Information Informal Ion Bureau Of Materials Materials Statistics Materials

Referral Coordinating Materials Statistics & Statistics Forecasting Information

Office Board Statistics Forecasting Administration Administration Commission

Existing or new Existing or new New office with - New office with - New executive New executive New indepenoffice within ex- office within ex- in existing in existing agency agency dent agency or

isting agency isting agency agency agency commission

Location

Parent Agency Existing (parent) agency should afford the office sufficient opportunity

to develop and/or acquire the necessary resources competence credibility. and reputation

None None None

Directorship Director ap -

pointed b y

agency or office

head

Chairman and

members selected from agencies & user

groups may be

appointed by

President

Director appointed b y

President with

Senate advice

and consent

Director a p -

pointed by

President with

Senate advice

and consent

Administration

appointed by

President with

Senate advice

and consent

Administration

appointed by

President with

Senate advice

and consent

Commissioner

appointed by

President for

fixed terms of

offic e with

Senate advice

and consent

Source of Authority OMB directive

Executive agenc y

order and /or

Act of congress

OMB directive

Executive agenc y

order and or

Act of Congress

Act of Congress Act of Congress Act of Congress Act of Congress Act of Congress

General Authority The general scope of authority for all alternatives includes the acquisition and analysls of Information and related data processing collection support necessary for implementation of designated capabilities and options in areas relating to

materials/commodities and supply utilization life cycIes incIuding secondary factors (e q labor capita I energy environIology and transportation) and interrelatlonships (e g between materials energy and the environment )

I 1 I I

ment prlce techno

Authority to make recommendation’s (and take actions to the extent possible under applicable law) for improvement of existing Federal Government materials information systems coordination and Integration of

existing systems standardization of existing systems Improvement of reporting forms and data classification etc Authority to provide support for private sector development of capabilities and services necessary I I

Authority to promulgate rules and regulations to carSpecific Authority Referral

Capabilities

Referral Referral

CIearinghouse

Statistical

Referral I CIearinghouse

StatisticaI

Forecas t

ing analytical

Referral

Clearinghouse

StatisticaI

Forecast -

ing analytical

I

Data Collection

and Protect Ion

All alternatives rely primarily on the existing authorities of relevant agencies (usually a mix of voluntary and mandatory

reporting) subject to existing protections of data sources and trade secrets and other proprietary confidential or privileged

Information I I I I

Authority to require that relevant agencies submit summary data in aggregated form) to

the office/agency subject to existing or new protections of data sources Authority to

collect original data that IS not otherwise available from existing sources

I I

Authority to promulgate rules and regulations for

collection of original data by other agencies

Authority to require that ‘agencie s submit

detailed data

Data Validation All alternates rely substantially on the existing authorities of relevant agencies subject to existing protections of data

Data Access

User Charges

Oversight
Under approach B, a Bureau of Materials

Statistics or a Bureau of Materials Statistics

and Forecasting would be established. Either

bureau would be located in an existing agency,

again most probably the Departments of Commerce or Interior. Both would have a materials

information clearinghouse/referral service

through which users could locate and obtain

materials information. Both would have a

statistics capability to provide summaries,

trend reports, and other materials information.

Both bureaus would have data processing and

collection capabilities. They would supervise

the development of effective information exchanges between existing agencies and build

up a summary materials data base. The

bureaus would verify data through various

methods to insure the reliability of materials

information and would facilitate improvements of needed capabilities in existing agency information systems. The Bureau of

Materials Statistics and Forecasting, would, in

addition, be able to produce materials forecasts

and analyses,

Approach C would involve the greatest

amount of change in existing systems. A new

agency would be set up—a Materials Statistics

and Forecasting Administration, a Materials

Statistics Administration, or a Materials Information Commission. A Materials Statistics

Administration could perform all the functions of a Bureau of Materials Statistics. It

would also have the authority to promulgate

rules and regulations to improve existing

Federal systems, including rules related to

data classification and verification, and to validate data at the original source. A Materials

Statistics and Forecasting Administration

could perform the same functions as a

Materials Statistics Administration, and, in addition, would be able to generate materials

forecasts and analyses. An independent

Materials Information Commission could carry out the same functions as the other two

agencies. It would also have authority to

establish its own detailed data base which

could supersede portions of existing agency

data bases.

E. IMPACTS RESULTING FROM THE IMPLEMENTATION OF THE THREE

SYSTEMS APPROACHES

Analysis of the three systems approaches

and the seven institutional arrangements indicates that approach A, the “incremental level”

of change, could result in some benefits.

Establishing a Materials Information Referral

Office or Information Coordinating Board

could produce only minimal impacts. The

office or board might promote more uniformity in existing information services and encourage coordination of agency materials

policies. They could provide a central referral

office which could ease difficulties in locating

and obtaining information. But neither the

office or the board could solve most of the

problems resulting from differing agency

policies, nonuniform standards, and incompatible information systems.

Of the three systems approaches, approach

B, could produce the most benefits with the

least cost. Overall, the impacts stemming from

this approach should be positive. and possible

detrimental impacts could be largely avoided ,

or controlled. Approach B is especially attractive because of its flexibility and adaptability

to new circumstances. The step-by-step

development could ensure review before each

commitment was made. This arrangement

would also provide continuity with few technical problems. The main task would involve

setting up links between existing information

services and the new referral/clearinghouse.

Existing systems could continue to operate

and collect data, and the new bureau could be

operational within months. Its administrative

9
-. —

authority could be strong. Financial costs

could be low or high, depending, on how far

the bureau could take full advantage of the investment in existing information systems.

Moreover, Congress would have the opportunity to review each step before funds for expansion were appropriated, While approach B

does have several potential weaknesses—the

possibilities of weak budget control or the

possible problems in getting access to needed

expertise—the overall impacts of approach B

are positive,

The assessment also concluded that under

approach B the best institutional arrangement

was 4. This institutional arrangement would

establish a Bureau of Materials Statistics and

Forecasting. The difference between arrangement 3, establishment of a Bureau of Materials

Statistics, and 4, is that the latter arrangement

would include the authority for producing

forecasts of materials supply and demand, and

further analytical support for planning and

policy formulation. Also, 4 could provide a

focus for the integration of existing Governmen t materials information serv ices.

Policy makers would be able to go to a central

source to be directed to the most timely and

complete information and analyses. Also,

other agencies and private industry could

check their own projections with the forecasts

issued by the bureau, Thus, contingency planning for materials shortages could be improved, The forecasting and analytica l

capabilities of such a bureau could provide

more consistency in the long-range planning

of agencies and Congress. Potentially, there

could be a broader consensus on materials-related issues, With improved analysis,

policy makers could be able to better handle

shortage situations and plan for possible future

scarcities, especially those related to the Nation’s growing dependency on foreign source

materials.

In the private sector, improved forecasts and

analysis from such a bureau could aid industry

in its long-range planning. The centralized

functions of the bureau could provide a focal

point for Government-industry cooperation in

developing and carrying out materials policies.

Access to more comprehensive and timely

materials information could affect competition. Business could better select from among

various materials substitutes. New information could lead to more efficient production

processes, more effective allocation of

resources, and improved products. If such new

products last longer and are more useful, the

quality of competition could be enhanced and

scarce resources conserved.

Information and analysis from such a

bureau might point to areas where savings

could be made and profits realized. Research

and development priorities could be altered;

activities could be expanded in areas where

resources are available and reduced in those

where key materials are short. Industrial R&D

could increasingly focus on ways to reduce

waste and recycle materials or develop

substitutes. The result could be lower costs.

Smaller firms lacking analytical and datagathering capabilities could benefit. If better

data were accompanied by analysis, smaller

companies could improve their competitive

positions relative to large corporations.

Trend projections and analyses from such a

bureau could aid States and localities with

their materials problems, especially smaller

States and localities which lack information

capabilities, The increased availability of information could be especially helpful to State and

local governments in dealing with energy and

land-use problems. The added convenience of

obtaining information from a central source

could greatly increase Federal-State cooperation in the materials area,

The greater availability of information

should also increase participation by public interest and environmental groups and trade

associations in the materials policy process,

The easier access could improve public understanding of materials issues and could lead to

more informed and valid criticism of specific

policies,

10
Approach C, which would mean a “topdown” restructuring of existing materials information systems, could result in the greatest

amount of improvement and change. Most of

the impacts growing from the establishment of

a new agency or independent commission

could be much the same as those resulting

from approach B, the intermediate level of

change. Many of these impacts could be highly

beneficial. However, this sweeping level of

change could also generate potentially significant detrimental impacts and costs.

Under approach C, administrative authority

could be very strong and budget control could

be total. The new agency could provide longterm continuity, but it could take years for the

agency to get into operation. The dollar costs

could be high, staffing could present problems,

and there could also be technical problems. An

information system of this scope has never

been designed before; however, a successful

restructuring of existing systems assumes that

policy makers can precisely define the requirements of such a new system. Given the uncertainties in defining materials problems and the

rapid pace of change in information technologies, this approach may involve unacceptably high risks.

Nevertheless, if approach C were chosen, it

could provide an additional benefit to those

generated by approach B. The new agency

could have much stronger authority to validate

data at the original source. Thus, the data and

resulting information provided by the agency

could be more complete and reliable. At the

same time, this authority raises a sensitive

SUMMARY

point. Proprietary information gathered from

private corporations might not be sufficiently

secure because of the interconnections between computer data banks. Some technical

safeguards could be built into the data bank,

but additional legal safeguards might be

needed.

With its greater viability, authority, and influence, a new agency like those in approach C

could provide a powerful stimulus for longrange and contingency planning, both in

Government and in the private sector. The

agency could probably improve industry’s

ability to meet national materials needs

through better planning and clarification of

materials substitutes and R&D options, The

agency’s unique analytical capabilities could

provide great help to policy makers in a wide

range of areas—from stockpiling and materials

conservation to international trade negotiations and national security affairs,

The high visibility and strong authority of

approach C, however, are likely to arouse controversy over the growth of the Federal

bureaucracy and the role of Government in

economic and social planning. For example,

benefits to State and local policy makers may

be offset by distrust or resentment of Federal

involvement in their affairs.

Various combinations of the three major approaches are possible, For example. a promising approach might be one that combines the

stronger authority of an approach C agency.

with the less risk and cost in the Step-by-step,

incremental restructuring utilized by an approach B agency,

F. PUBLIC POLICY ISSUES

Some important public policy issues likely tained through the highly developed informato arise in the planning, implementation, and tion services that already collect, organize, and

disseminate scientific and technical informa- opera t i o n of the i m proved information

systems capabilities concern the relationship tion. The corresponding services for handling

of the public and private sectors in providing information on the economic aspects of

materials information to each other. materials are less developed. Thus, much of

the needed information would still have to be

Much of the technical data needed to imple- obtained directly from private firms, In tapment the improved capabilities could be ob- ping the available sources of data and for11
mulating supplemental programs to extend

them, the data acquisition program would

need to improve the completeness. currency,

and timeliness of the data bases: and improve

the ease of access to them by encouraging

uniform usage of terms and units of measure.

and by promoting development of procedures

for ensuring the security and proprietary

nature of the data.

The assessment also examined the sources

of Federal authority to gather information

from the private sector and found that if the

public sector required the private sector to

provide specific materials information:

● Such a request would be consistent with

existing, recognized Federal regulatory

powers;

G.

The conclusions that emerge from

●

●

It would not greatly, if at all, expand

Federal authority over the materials industry; and

The private sector could be protected

from public disclosure of corporate

proprietary information through adequate attention to checks and balances in

system implementation.

Most of the detailed data submitted by individual companies in the private sector would

be considered confidential, and would be exempt from public disclosure under the

Freedom of Information Act and related

Federal statutes. Additional safeguards

however, could be incorporated in any legislation establishing a new Federal materials information structure or authority.

CONCLUSION

this

assessment are (1) that action to improve existing Federal materials information systems is

both necessary and the concepts suggested

herein are technically feasible, and (2) that.

under the conditions stated herein, the potential benefits of implementing the improved

capabilities as defined would probably justify

the financial and social costs of making such

improvements.

The analysis provided in the assessment indicates that implementing the improved

capabilities through systems approach B, institutional arrangement 4, could probably

achieve a reasonable balance between benefits

and costs. However, various combinations of

the systems approaches also merit further consideration. For example, one approach that

might be considered could combine the strong

authority of approach C with the less risk and

cost associated with the incremental changes

suggested in

tors. which

approach B. Other external facsuggest more or less change,

should be considered in the context of their

cost/benefit tradeoffs during the course of

future congressional deliberations. Any implementation of these findings should, for example, be preceded by detailed requirements and

systems engineering studies.

Any of the three systems approaches

described in this assessment could be expected

to achieve, in varying degrees, improvements

in U.S. materials information gathering and

analysis, Implementing the new institutional

and analytical capabilities along the lines identified in this assessment is a complex question

with far-reaching implications. What is certain, though, is that the potential impacts of

emerging problems require more comprehensive integrated information and analysis

capabilities to support Federal materials

policymaking.

12
Chapter 1

INTRODUCTION
Chapter 1

INTRODUCTION

The compatibility of man with his environment is fundamentally linked to his use of materials. Recent materials scarcities,

growing concern with environmental degradation, and changing

patterns in international supply and demand are among a host of

factors which are creating new materials-related problems for

which Congress and the executive branch of Government must

fashion effective responses. These factors are inducing an

historic shift in national industrial priorities away from energy-intensive, inefficient technologies toward conservation and more

efficient use of materials and energy. To accommodate these

changes, knowledge of the technological, economic, and social

effects of materials management and usage is becoming increasingly important. Achieving a smooth flow of materials information from the laboratory to the designer and manufacturing

engineer, developing prudent principles of materials management, establishing sound materials policies in the face of changing priorities—all of these require information services encompassing all functional aspects of materials utilization.

A. DISCUSSION OF MAJOR ISSUES

The current nationwide materials informa- recent changes, as those cited above, several

tion “system” which has developed over a questions merit detailed consideration:

period of 200 years in response to evolved

needs comprises thousands of disparate,

●

loosely connected elements within industry.

Government, and academic institutions. Given

Are information systems which currently

support Federal materials policymaking

adequate to address complex materials

15
CHAPTER 1

problems? In particular, are the systems

able to project with sufficient accuracy

whether a scarcity or shortage-related

problem is likely to occur, estimate its

con sequences, and evaluate possible

Government actions to avert or alleviate

the problem?

. If the systems cannot provide these

capabilities, what kind of improvements

are required ?

● How might these improvements be

achieved ? —by what organizationa l

authority and under what kinds of institutional arrangements?

● What impacts (institutional, economic,

social, international, and legal) might

result from implementing such improvements?

● Finally, what public policy issues might

attend such improvements?

These are among the issues examined in this

assessment.

The central question is whether Congress

and the executive departments can significantly improve the quality of their decisions

and their approach to setting national objectives by improving the existing materials information systems. The emphasis of the

assessment is on information systems that

would permit Federal policy makers to anticipate and deal more effectively with problems

raised by materials shortages, either those arising in the near term, often with little warning,

or those that may occur many years in the

future. As developed during the assessment,

the kind of information and analysis needed to

deal with shortage-related situations is also

applicable to a spectrum of other materials

policy issues.

It was recognized at the outset of the assessment that a demonstration of the need for substantial changes in existing information

systems rests upon a balanced consideration of

both the likely benefits and potential costs,

where benefits and costs are reckoned not only

in technical and economic terms, but also in

terms of their potential social, political, and

legal impacts. For example. the exclusive right

of data ownership of individual firms and the

protection thereof must be considered against

the needs of the executive departments for

statistical information. It is not the intent of

this assessment to resolve such issues, but

rather, to examine the benefits and costs of

available technical alternatives and associated

issues,

Conceptually, several outcomes of such an

examination can be foreseen. If it became obvious that the benefits associated with a particular upgrading approach greatly outweighed the possible disbenefits, the analysis

would have demonstrated the “need” for

change. Or, the converse could be demonstrated. Likely, the “need” for change would

be found to turn on sensitive trade-offs among

the technical, social, political, and legal issues.

By revealing these issues and, to the extent

possible within the resource constraints of the

study, by assessing the benefits and disbenefits

of alternative actions, the assessment attempts

to develop a factual basis for congressional

deliberations.

B. CONGRESSIONAL CONCERN FOR MATERIALS INFORMATION

An insight into the growing concern of Con- bills suggest problem areas in data acquisition,

gress for improved materials information is il- data handling, data analysis, data reporting,

lustrated by the bills on this subject in- data duplication, data completeness, both

troduced in the 93rd and 94th Congresses. Ta- foreign and domestic, data standardization,

ble I-1 compares the recent House and Senate and data reliability. They generally call for imbills with information needs indicated. The proved institutional capabilities.

16
CHAPTER 1

Table l-l .—Needs Identified in Major Materials-Related Legislation

Information

Management

Needs

New or improved

institutional arrangements

New or Improved system

Data acquisition

Data handling

Data analysis

Reporting

Duplication of data

Completeness of

domestic data

Completeness of

foreign data

Standardization of

data reports

Reliability accuracy

of data

93rd Congress

Senate

x x

x x x

x x

x x

x x

x

x

x

Examination of the bills

x x

x

x x

x x

x x x

x

x x

x

x

further indicates

that such materials information problems as

coordination, compatability, and dissemination limited the analysis of materials shortages and related environmental problems and

imbalances. Furthermore. because materials

data collected by various Federal agencies

were considered incomplete, incompatible.

and inaccurate. the proposed legislation included recommendations for improving the

regular collect ion. standardization,analysis,

and reporting of such data. Attention was

called to the long-term availability of critical

products, materials. and resources essential to

industry and commerce. as well as to the

serious problems associated with the alleviation of short-term dislocations.

Most recently in the second session of the

x x

x

x

x

x

x

x

x

94th Congress

Senate

mr.

Xx xx x

Xx x x x

x x x

x x x

x

x x x

l-louse

x x x x

x x x x

x x x

x

x

x x

x

x x

x

94th Congress, hearings were held by the

Senate Interior and Insular Affairs Committee

to discuss the Energy Information Act. S. 1864.

The bill, if passed, would assure the United

States of accurate energy data with which to

make decisions. Although the hill deals with

fuel minerals, the materials information

problems were similar to those of the nonfuel

minerals discussed in this report.

Inherent in the proposed legislation was the

implication that automatic data processing

technology will contribute to improving the

existing materials information system.

However. there was uncertainty regarding the

selection of the functions requiring improvements and mechanisms for improvement of

automat ion.

C. ASSESSMENT APPROACH

The primary focus of the assessment is on assessment is structured to achieve the followmaterials information systems capabilities that ing tasks:

could permit Federal policymakers to deal

more effectively with non-food materials-re- 1.

lated problems, Toward this objective the

}$().1,~~ ( ) - ~~ . J

Examination of

mation systems,

existing materials infor17
2.

3 ..

4.

5.

6.

Analysis of the capability of the current

Federal information systems to support

materials policymaking;

If required, development of improved

capabilities to support Federal materials

policymakers:

Review selected Federal information

systems to examine which of the improved capabilities are either now being

achieved or planned:

Examination of alternative approaches

and institution al arrangements for implementing the improved capabilities;

Analysis of the possible impacts of implementing the improved capabilities: and

7. Discussion of the major public policy

issues concerned with improving the

Federal materials information systems.

The study draws extensively on prior

studies, particularly the Paley report,

Resourccs for Freedom, 1952; the report of the

National Commission on Materials Policy.

Materials needs and the Environment. Today

and Tomorrow, 1973: and the General Accounting Office report, U.S. Actions Needed to

Cope with Commodity Shortages, 1974 The

Committee on the Survey of Materials Science

and Engineering Report, 1974; as well as many

conference summaries and reports dea1ing

with specific materials,

The analyses also reflects the results of a

series of over 300 interviews with information

specialists and policymakers responsible for

making materials-related decisions,
Chapter II

INFORMATION REQUIREMENTS OF THE

U.S. MATERIALS SYSTEM
Chapter II

INFORMATION REQUIREMENTS OF THE

U.S. MATERIALS SYSTEM

The dominant characteristics of the U.S. materials system is

that it is a private system in which supply, demand, and allocations are largely determined by independent decisionmakers

working through the market. In the past, Government action to

complement the market’s response to materials problems was

minimal. This condition may be changing; many new pressures on

the materials system are national and international in scope and

transcend the decisionmaking capacity of the private sector. For

Government materials policy to be effective, it must be based on

an up-to-date understanding of the market forces and on timely,

accurate information depicting its principal supply and demand

parameters.

A wide variety of diffuse and disparate information systems in

Government, industry, and academic institutions now provide

guidance on all aspects of materials to decisionmakers. In contrast to a “national” system—which implies coordination and integration—these separate systems are better regarded as a “nationwide” information resource .

A. INTRODUCTION

In order to comprehend how information Three topics are covered in this chapter:

affects the flow of materials through the U.S.

economy, one must be aware of the structure a. The variety and importance of materialsof the Nation’s materials system and of the

process by which materials decisions are

made. Accordingly, this chapter presents an b.

overview of the breadth and complexity of the

materials information systems that have

evolved to support materials decision making, c,.

including systems in the private sector,

academic institutions, and Government.

related activities in the U.S. economy:

The diversity of materials decision mak- -

ing: and

The structure and characteristics of existing information systems in support of

such decision making.

21
CHAPTER 11

B. MATERIALS IN THE U.S. ECONOMY

The essential characteristic of the U.S.

materials system is that it is predominantly a

private system. It comprises many small and

large firms, each making its own judgments

and management decisions i n determining

how materials move through the materials cycle from raw state, through processing and

manufacturing, distribution, and finally, to

scrap or recycling. Figure II-1 depicts this cycle. Prospectors determine where to explore;

miners decide what techniques to use for the

extract ion of ore and where to locate refining

facilities; manufacturers determine which of

several materials to use in a planned product,

weighting cost versus material qualities: consumers decide whether to buy a product at the

proffered price: and potential entrepreneurs

determine whether to set up new services,

such as a scrap and recycling business.

n

Extract

RAW fl ::::;

MATER IALS

Table II-1 provides some evidence of the

size and importance of the materials-oriented

activities in the [J. S. economy (the data are for

1973):

●

●

●

●

These activities accounted for $576

billion or almost 47 percent of the total

Gross National Product (GNP),

The value of the materials pro -

duced/consumed by the materialsoriented sectors account for over 80 percent of the Nat ion’s exports and imports.

Over 34 million Americans wer e

employed-45 percent of the total number of full-time workers in the labor

force.

Of the 1.9 million scientists, engineers.

and technicians employed by industry, 97

percent had materials-related specialties,

Figure II-I. Materials Cycle

BULK MATERIALs

t

Design

Manufacture

Assembly

n

Performance

Service

Use

,

I I

Source: Committee on the Survey of Materials Science and Engineering, Materials and Man’s Needs,

Washington, D, C.: National Academy of Science, 1974.

22
CHAPTER II

Table 11–1.—The Materials-Oriented Sectors of the Economy

ITEM A

MAJOR GROUPINGS OF U.S. ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES

Industry Materials-Oriented Elements

Agriculture, forestry, and fisheries Forestry and non foo d

Agriculture

Mining All

Contract Construction All

Manufacturing All, except food, feed, and

tobacco

Transportation Freight and pipeline

Communication None

Electric, gas, and sanitary services None

Wholesale and retail trade All, except food, feed, and

tobacco

Finance, insurance, and real

estate None

Services Higher education— forestry,

engineering, and physical

sciences

ITEM C

MATERIAL EXPORTS and % IMPORTS

Million dollars

Export1967s

Materials 25,961

U.S. Total 31,238

% Materials 8 3

Imports

Materials 21,872

U.S. Total 26,889

% Materials 81

1973

56,265

70,223

80

59,170

69,121

86

ITEM B

CONTRIBUTION OF MATERIALS-ORIENTED

SECTORS TO GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT

Billion Current Dollars

1973

Forestry 1.6

Mining 19.5

Construction 61.8

Manufacturing 297.7

Transportation, Utilities 47.3

Trade 148.6

Education 3 -

Total Materials 576.8

GNP 1,294.9

% Materials 46.7

1980

1.3

34.5

60.4

637.2

94.2

256.2

4 -

1,084.2

2,156.2

50.3

ITEM D

EMPLOYMENT IN THE MATERIALSORIENTED SECTORS

Millions of Employees

—1973 1980.

Forestry .1

Mining .6 .7

construction 4.0 4.9

Manufacturing 18.4 20.6

transportation, Utilities 1.6 1.9

Trade 9.6 14.7

ducation

Total Materials Employment 34.2 42. 9

National Employment 75.9 101.2

% Materials 45.1 42.4

ITEM E

ESTABLISHMENTS WITHIN THE

MATERIALS-ORIENTED SECTORS

Thousands

1973 1980

Forestry 12 15

Mining 90 110

Construction 980 1,110

Manufacturing 322 330

Transportation, Utilities 145 149

Trade 1,899 2,233

Education 2 2

Total Materials 3,450 3,949

U.S. Total 12,759 14,113

% Materials 27 28

Source Office of Technology Assessment
CHAPTER 11

● There were nearly 3.5 million materialsoriented establishments.

●

● There were some 250 labor unions, about

1,700 business associations, and some 800

scientific, engineering, and technical

associations.

More than 200,000 academic degrees related to materials studies were awarded,

representing about 17 percent of the total

number of degrees conferred that year.

C. MATERIALS DECISIONMAKING

As materials move through the materials cycle—from raw state, through processing and

manufacturing, distribution, and finally, scrap

or recycling-countless decisions need to be

made. So accustomed are Americans to the

widespread availability of material products

that the complexity of these decision processes

is not generally recognized.

1. Decisionmaking Complexity

The complexity of decisionmaking can be

emphasized by examining the flow of

materials among the major segments of a

specific materials industry. Figure II-2 depicts

the flow for copper and zinc products among

fabricators, suppliers, and customers. It points

up the involved couplings which need to be

considered when materials decisions are

made. Decisions made at the supply end of the

cycle in the mining and scrap businesses

directly affect the primary copper and primary

zinc businesses and, in turn, the brass castings

and other industries shown. At the other end

of the cycle, demand conditions and decisions

of the diverse group of customers (including

primary lead users) affect imports and mining.

A similar example of the complexity inherent in materials decisions is shown in

figure II–3 which depicts the materials cycle

for aluminum. It illustrates the nature of the

supply/demand interrelationships of the intermediate aluminum products from acquisition

of ore to consumption of finished goods. At

each stage, the supply of intermediate products is subject to and, in turn, affects the demands of the succeeding stages. Thus. various

end items (automobiles, cans, household products) all compete through market forces for

24

alum inure ingots; likewise, domestic and

foreign refineries compete for the ore supply,

Guiding the decisions that control and direct

the material-flow patterns in these examples

and for materials generally is a body of experience and judgment that rests on the

availability of information, In part, this information manifests itself automatically through

the action of the market mechanism. However,

when the market is unable to solve such

problems. then Government materials decisionmakers may become involved. For them to

make effective decisions. information on the

full range of supply/demand factors and possible sectoral impacts must be available, a process discussed in the following sections.

2. Decisionmaking in the Marketplace

A fundamental advantage of the market

mechanism on which the U.S. materials

system now depends is the way it economizes

on the need for information in reaching

toward optimum allocation of resources.

Sowell epitomizes this mechanism: “It has

been said that nobody knows how to make (1

simple lead pencil! No single person knows

how to grow the trees for the wood, mine and

process the graphite for the lead, make the

rubber for the eraser, extract and process the

ore for the metal that holds it on, and

manufacture the paint and varnish that cover

the pencil. The pencil companies, of course,

buy most of these materials in the market from

others who do know their own small part of

the process, but whose knowledge becomes

very hazy and practically nonexistent as to

processes a few stages ahead or behind. The

alternatives available at any given stage, and
CHAPTER 11

Figure II–2. Expenditures and Sales of Copper and Zinc Industries

MAJOR SUPPLIER

INDUSTRIES

I

I

I

I

I

t

-

I

I

MAJOR CUSTOMER

INDUSTRIES

A

I

A

,

I

I

I

I

I

—

0 Percent of Copper and Zinc Industries Expenditures Minor Suppliers and Customers Account for percentages not Shown

● Percent of Copper and Zinc Industries Sales See Introduction for Fuller Explanation

Source U S Department of Commerce U S Industrial Outlook 1975 Washington D C U S Government Printing Office

25
6

26
CHAPTER 11

the changing terms on which they are available, are likely to be fully understood only by

the people at that stage. As the competition of

knowledgeable people at one stage forces

prices up or down in response to the underlying scarcities and technology which they understand, those further along in the process.

who may not understand at all what is causing

the price change. nevertheless respond to

these changes so as to economize what has

become more scarce. substituting what has

become easier to get, increasing or decreasing

their total output or changing the channels of

its distribution. To achieve the same end result

through a political process would require that

either the public or a central planning commission have a degree of knowledge which is not

needed under a price mechanism” (ref. 1).

To say that the American market system

reduces the need for formally collected in formation and the amount of knowledge needed

at any single decision point is not to say.

however, that information is unimportant. In

fact, the existence of knowledgeable buyers

and sellers is one of the essential conditions

for maintaining the market structure. To the

extent that such knowledge is not available,

the decision making structure may, at best. be

inefficient: at worst. it may be incapable of

coping with perturbations in materials flow.

In the United States, most materials decis ions are made by private businessmen and are

based on their own projections of supply and

demand. These, in turn. hinge on a wide range

of subsidiary factors—technological state-ofthe-art, financial conditions, international

trade circumstances. and, not the least of all,

Government policies as they are now understood. In recent years, particularly as many

materials have come into short supply, the

complexity of the decisionmaking process has

been heightened and the role of Government

has tended to become more important,

3. Decision making in the Federal

Government

The broad range of problems posed by potential scarcities and outright shortages illustrates the growing involvement of Government in materials decisionmaking. Of concern

are both short-term crisis situations exemplified by the oil embargo of 1973 and potential long-range problems such as the growing dependence on foreign sources as domestic

supplies dwindle. Government attention and

possible action may be required whenever

shortages are projected to become so severe as

to cause unacceptable distortions in the

economy that cannot be addressed by the

market mechanism.

In the market economy, shortages and

surpluses are price-dependent. In theory, the

market usually resolves them by raising prices,

thereby reducing demand and increasing supply. The higher price may cause users to

switch to substitutes which formerly were

noncompetitive at the lower price, for exampie, copper in place of aluminum. Where acceptable substitutes are not available. use of

the scarce material may be cut back; if the

price rise is high enough. users may forego it

completely. A similar spectrum of effects

takes place on the supply side. As examples.

the shortage- induced price rise could stimulate

output by making unworked, lower-grade ores

profitable; or it could encourage increased

higher priced imports,

The need for Government action arises

when a material becomes (or is projected to

become) so scarce that the normal market

mechanism can not prevent (or correct in

reasonably timely fashion. i f at all) unacceptable distort ions to vital elements of the

economy Consider. for example, a small

shortfall in the nickel supply which raises the

price by 10 percent. If the only users thereby

denied access to nickel were nonstrategic producers (for example, toy manufacturers who

could not absorb the price increase). there

would not be reason for Government intervention. If the supply fell by 50 percent, however,

and the resulting price rise forced producers of

food machinery out of business. the problem

would be of greater concern to the Government. If the supply were reduced by 90 percent. to a level that threatened defense production. the market’s ability to allocate the

27
CHAPTER 11

scarce nickel on the basis of price might well

break down, and governmental action could be

needed to ensure vital needs and services.

In short, the principal market mechanism

for allocation is price: in general. those who

can afford to pay can get the scarce commod it y. Clearly, instances can arise where this

criterion alone is incompatible with the public

good.

The actual process of balancing supply and

demand encompass a complex array of actions

and is constantly at work, signaling the need

for greater supplies and encouraging the most

efficient ways to achieve them. Viewed from

this perspective, shortages are seen to be fundamental to the market system and are neither

good or bad. Examples of the wide range of

normally occurring shortage-inducing factors

are shown in table II–.2. Most of the factors are

containable by market forces without Government intervention.

Serious shortages which could require

Government action can occur for many

reasons. Among the factors which could induce long-term shortages is the narrowing of

relatively cheap domestic supplies of many

important minerals, such as copper, lead, iron,

and silver. Continued use of those materials by

an expanding economy will require discovery

of new deposits, development of new techniques for more efficient processing of lower

grade deposits, and greater dependence on

foreign sources of supply—all of which are uncertain developments, Other shortage-inducing factors result from new concerns for

energy conservation and the effects of

materials usage on the environment, These

considerations limit the options of private

decisionmakers and highlight the influence

Table n-2-Factors Tending To Diminish Supply

— A major supplier runs out of ore.

— The production system of a major supplier fails.

— Transportation breaks down between supplier and user.

— Price rise of the material causes supplier to turn to lower grade ores, which maintains

throughput but lowers output.

— Capital costs rise so that maintenance of production facilities cannot be optimized

and output declines.

— Facilities are diverted to removal of overburden or pockets of low yield ore and output

declines.

— Operations are halted to make facility changes to satisfy safety regulations.

— Operations are curtailed to comply with environmental standards.

— Health absenteeism occurs on a major scale.

— Labor shortages occur, especially at remote sites.

— Improperly deferred maintenance occurs.

— Major accidents occur.

— Management/labor disputes occur.

Source: Adapted from F. P. Huddle, ‘What Isa Shortage and What Can We Do About It?,”

presentation to the Society for the Advancement of Material and Process Engineering,

October 1975.

28
Government has on the market’s response.

Still another factor that places some shortages

beyond the reach of normal market forces is

the changing situation with regard to foreign

producers, the actions of OPEC being indicative.

In considering policies for any specific

materials problem, the first need for Government policymaking is to anticipate which

problems the market mechanisms alone are

not likely to resolve satisfactorily or in a

timely fashion. Once these are identified,

Government policy makers can then consider a

broad spectrum of responses. For example, if

the shortage can be perceived early enough in

terms of years, alternative sources of supply

can be encouraged. Research and development

programs can be emphasized to increase the

productivity of domestic supplies and to find

new substitutes which might be ready in time

for the expected crisis. Stockpiles can be

established. Policies could also be adopted to

CHAPTER II

dampen demand through promotion of conservation practices or other means. However, if

the shortage is near-term (or occurs without

warning) and cannot be absorbed by the

market, then a different range of Government

responses can be invoked to supplement

market forces, Past examples have included

export controls, direct allocation of supplies,

compulsory conservation measures (55 mph

speed limit, Sunday gas station closing), price

controls, and even rationing.

In general, the range of possible Government actions to deal with materials dislocations is very broad. Examples of activities and

the principal agencies currently implementing

them are shown in table 11–3. Table 11–4,

developed by a recent National Academy of

Sciences study on mineral supply, shows the

possible impacts on production and consumption of a spectrum of actions that can be taken.

Before any of these policies is applied, the

Government policy maker must be able to

Table n-3.-Some Examples of Government Materials Activities

Policymaking Activity Examples of Agencies Currently Involved

Support to domestic production DOD, GSA, ERDA, National Bureau of Standards,

Bureau of Mines

Development of new materials DOD, Bureau of Mines, Forest Service, ERDA, NSF,

EPA, FEA, DOI, DOA, Council on Environmental

Quality, DOC

Conservation, substitution and recycling of materials EPA, FEA, DOI, DOA, Council on Environmental

Quality, DOD

Data collection and analysis DOA, Bureau of Census, Tariff Commission,

Bureau of Mines, U.S. Geological Survey

Policy, planning, and coordination Congress, DOA, DOI, OMB, CEA

Control and regulation activities Office of Export Administration, Nuclear

Regulatory Agency, MESA, DOA

Monitoring of international activities Department of State, DOA, DOC

Fiscal, monetary, and trade actions Department of Treasury, Council of Economic

Advisors, Federal Reserve Board, DOA

Adopted from: Meyer J. Harron and John D. Crawford, Government Materials Activities, Washington, D. C.:

Federal Preparedness Agency, July 1975.

29
CHAPTER II

Import restrictions

,.

I+

.- , , . :“ “ . “

. . .. :-! +, . - . , . ?

,- z 7

.$

+ to -

Uv, )

Source: Gxnfnhtw on Mat@ate f%lloy. @M&M! Of a #htfOnd- kkferhk $%fhy, # ~blicatkm ~A8 294 ,

Wa8hh@on, D.C.: National Academy of 8cienc6s - NMonat Acaderqy of Engineering, August 1972.

30
demonstrate its need and project its consequences. For this he needs to understand how

market forces operat e throughout the

materials cycle and to have reliable information on their current and projected status.

Similarly, businessmen have need to factor

into their plans the effects of possible Government actions. More than ever before, they too

require quality information services and

capabilities to arrive at effective actions.

This assessment is concerned with what information capabilities are required to support

(; HAPTER 11

policy makers in the Federal Government in

addressing materials-related problems. The

systems in the private sector as well as in the

Government that policy makers can call on

were not designed for the kinds of problems

expected to confront them. Rather, they

evolved to meet a diverse array of public and

private objectives within complex, diffuse,

and pluralistic systems. Nevertheless, they

represent an important national resource on

which to base improvements. The structure

and characteristics of these existing systems

are described in the next section.

D. EXISTING MATERIALS INFORMATION SYSTEMS

There exists today a wide variety of information facilities and services with differing

degrees of completeness and accuracy which

support the country’s materials system. In contrast to a “national” system, these information

elements remain largely independent of each

other. However, information from various

Government, private industry, and academic

locations in these systems can often be merged

to address specific needs. Thus. the overall

system should be regarded as a “nationwide”

system—rather than a “national” coordinated

and integrated system.

These existing systems were reviewed to

understand how materials information is currently handled and to uncover some of the

issues to be faced in deciding what improvements, if any, are needed to more effectively

support materials policymaking in the Federal

Government.

In its broadest context, the set of mechanisms by which people transfer, store, and use

information on materials, comprises two major

categories. One is the array of formal communications techniques organized around

reports, handbooks, catalogs, and other documents. The other is the set of informal, largely

verbal, techniques by which information is

transmitted. 1 The emphasis of this assessment

1,As r[,p{)rt~;(] h} (;arlson (ref. 2) and b}’ i$’o] f{? (rf!f. 3)

the in forma I person- to-prrson information channel plays

a part i f; u I a r] y i m po rta n t rol P i n promoting t h P f 10 w o f

ne~i data an(l I(i[Ias among materials technologists.

is on the formal systems which support policymaking decisions. However, it is necessary to

recognize that in all cases policy action depends on the extraction of information from

documents and other sources.

Individual information systems are varied

and diffuse. as table 11–5 indicates. Like other

kinds of scientific and technical information.

materials information supports several kinds

of activities. As elaborated in a study of the

role of information services (ref. 4). these include conduct of science. generating technology and applying it in industry, public decisionmaking and policy formulation, and informing the general public. Although no simple characterization of these services is fully

satisfactory. their principal components may

be visualized as comprising three categories, as

depicted in figure 11-4:

●

•

●

Primary and Derivative Scientific and

Technical Informatio n —reports of

original scientific and engineering investigations (primary sources), and compendia thereof (secondary and tertiary

sources);

Technical Trade Information—technically-oriented advertising and applicat ions literature produced by vendor firms

to promote sales; and

Inventory and Economic Information—

data and statistics characterizing the

quantities and prices of materials

31
-—

CHAPTER 11

Table n-5.-Examples of Elements Within Existing Materials Information Systems

GOVERNMENT

1. Interior 13. Labor

a. Bureau of Mines a. OSHA

b. Geological Survey b. Bureau of Labor Statistics

c. Bureau of Land Management 14. Treasury

d. Division of Minerals Policy Analysis a. Tariff Commission

2. Commerce b. Office of Raw Materials and Ocean Policy

a. Bureaus of Domestic and International 15. Agriculture

Commerce a. Laboratories

b. National Bureau of Standards b. Field Service

National Standard Reference Data System c. Forest Service

c. Bureau of Census d. Economic Research Service

d. National Technical Information Service e. Statistical Reporting Service

Bureau of Economic Analysis 16. National Science Foundation

3. State 17. NAS/NAE

a. Desk Officers a. National Materials Advisory Board

b. Industrial and Strategic Materials Division b. Commission on Natural Resources

4. Defense 18. State Development Agencies

a. DoD Information Analysis Centers

b. Laboratories (AFML, AMMRC, NRL, etc.)

Contractor Reports (DDC) PRIVATE SECTOR

5. GSA

a. Federal Preparedness Agency 19. Universities/Academia

6. Executive 20. Industry

a. Council of Economic Advisors a. Internal Information Systems

b. Council on International Economic Policy b. Trade Literature

c. Office of Management and Budget c. Manuals and Handbooks

d. CIA d. Technical Literature

7. EPA 21. Trade Associations

a. Laboratories (Cincinnati, Las Vegas, etc.) 22. Rate Bureaus

b. Contractor Reports 23. Technical Societies

8. FEA a. Technical Meetings

National Energy Information Center b. Magazines, Journals

9. ERDA c. Professional Papers

a. Laboratories (Hanford, Oak Ridge, etc.) 24. Handbooks, Textbooks, Technical Literature

b. Contractor Reports (RECON) 25. Information and Abstracting Services

10. Library of Congress 26. Independent Laboratories

a. Congressional Research Service 27. Patent System

11. NASA 28. Banking and Financial Houses

a. Laboratories (Langley, Lewis, etc.) 29. Labor Organizations

b, Contractor Reports (RECON) 30. Public Libraries

12. FPC 31. Foreign Systems and Sources

a. Office of Economics 32. Newspapers, radio, TV, etc.

throughout the materials cycle. including mation. Its volume is large and growing, as the

economic analyses and projections following instances illustrate:

thereof, ●

Each step in the materials cycle generates information, some more oriented toward one

category than to another. In general, though,

all three categories of information flow from

each step. as indicated in figure II–5.

1. Scientific and Technical Information

●

Technical materials literature is the most

common form of scientific and technical infor32

The American Society for Metals lists

more than 1,000 worldwide journals that

publish papers on the properties, production. fabrication, treatment, finishing. and

applications of metals. About 100 of these

are English language journals having

metals technology as their principal

thrust.

A selective guide to sources of fibers and

textile information cites 16 journals in

that field.
Figure II–4. Categories of Materials Information

Formal

Materials

Information

System

I

Primary and

Derivative

Scientific and

Technical

Information

Papers and Articles

I

Review s

L

Directories of

Information

Analysis

Centers

1

Technical Sales

“ Bullet Ins

[

Test Data

Specification Data

Advertising

Price Delivery Data

Inventory and

Economic

Information

L

I

I 1

supply/

Product ion /Trade I

Economic

Consumption

Analyses/

Statistics Forecasts

L

t

Government

Publ I cat Ions

Note Depicted here are the information products per se, not the services which produce them

● A Federation of Materials Societies

survey of the information services of 13

materials-oriented societies (excluding

wood or fiber fields) showed publication

in 1971 of 95.000 journal pages: in addition, the societies published 217 conference proceedings in a 3-year period

(ref. 5). A selective guide to metallurgy

literature alone cites 10 professional

societies and 35 research and trade

associations, man y of which sponsor primary publications.

● The number of scientific and technical

reports published by the U.S. Government is estimated to be 80,000 per year. of

which a substantial number deal with

materials issues.

● Some 35 States and the Federal Government generate materials standards. The

Department of Defense has issued over

35,000, the General Services Administration another 6,000. In addition. over 400

nongovernment technical and professional groups issue them.

33

i{(l-l,7q () - 77 - 4
—

CHAPTER 11

Figure II–5. Flow of Information Through the Materials Cycle

\ /

Mining/Refining <

I

-

Disposal -

Information System for

. . . . .

I and “Pack- Industry

. . .— \

Consolidating

aging” Information to

Meet Specific Needs of

\Users

W

~

-

Information

Manufacturing e -

Use 4. *

I I

I

Scientific/Technical

Information

) 1

. - J Materials Flow

7

/ /

/ \

34
b In a report prepared for the Organization

of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), Anderla projected the

number of scientific and technical articles

that would be published in 1985 to be

three to four times the number in 1970

(ref. 6). Anderla also projected that:2

—In 1967, holdings of scientific and technical information (covering all fields

and including primary, secondary. and

trade data) amounted to 250 million

pages and were being generated at a

rate of 45–50 million pages per year.

—The world stock of articles in 1967

numbered at least 20–30 million.

—Contrary to earlier predictions, the

growth of technical information would

continue, at a rate between 7.2 and 13.5

percent per year (corresponding to a

doubling every 5.5 to 10 years).

This explosion of primary technical publications is not a recent phenomenon. As long ago

as 1830, as the number of journals proliferated,

secondary sources in the form of abstracting

services first came into being. Garvey and

Compton estimate that they have since grown

exponentially, by a factor of 10 every 50 years

(ref. 2). A selective guide to sources of

metallurgy information lists 58 abstract journals and an additional 25 index publications. A

similar guide to fibers and textile information

notes 30 abstracting services. The number of

abstracts published by the materials societies

polled by the Federation of Materials Societies

(FMS) in 1971 (ref. 5) was in the range of

125–175,000 per year. Using Anderla’s “conservative” projection rate of 7.2 percent per

year, the current rate of abstracts for the 13

societies alone may be approaching a quartermillion per year. Other secondary sources are

handbooks and textbooks. A guide to fiber and

textile literature cites 11 handbooks and encyclopedias of general interest. A similar guide

to metal literature notes 31 handbooks, still

other handbooks compile information on

Z1 I ShO1l ]d ~)[1 nOted that SOrn6: ~~ Anderla’s ~~nc]u -

sions ar~~ disputed by other information investigators; see

ref. 7,

CHAPTER 11

wood. The FMS survey found that the 13

materials societies polled alone published 234

technical books over a 3-year period (ref. 5).

As the volume of primary and secondary

material grow, a need arises for two new information services: tertiary compilations of secondary sources and directories of information

analysis centers. (References 8 and 9. sources

of many of the statistics cited here. are examples of tertiary sources.) Information analysis

centers are facilities for evaluating information on particular materials; they are further

described later in this chapter.

2. Technical Trade Information

This second category of materials information covers technical brochures, specifications.

test data and the like distributed by firms.

often through sales engineers. to promote the

sale of materials. For a variety of reasons. this

category has not received the same development and attention as have the more scientific

systems. As a practical matter, however, it

probably represents the most important source

of materials information for smaller companies without science-oriented staffs.

In a study in the United Kingdom. Wolfe has

shown that personnel in the textile industry

and in metal industries each derive 40 percent

of all the written information they use from

trade literature (ref. 3). Although no comparable study has been conducted in the United

States, there is reason to think the percentage

may be even higher.

While some observers see “a decreasing

amount of good technical literature available

from materials suppliers” (ref. 10), much of it

appears to be excellent. Recognizing the importance of describing their products to

prospective customers, many of the larger

firms operate extensive trade information

services. Examples include E. 1. duPont de

Nemours & Co., which has implemented a

telephone system for accessing a central information base that currently handles nearly

10,000 calls per month, and Climax Molybdenum Co.

35
CHAPTER II

3. Inventory and Economic Information

Much of the information in this third

category, covering quantities and prices of

materials throughout the materials cycle, is

generated by industrial organizations. Much of

it is compiled by trade associations and by an

array of special trade and financial journals.

such as The American Metal Market and

Metal Week, Additional information is contained in stockholders reports and in filings

with regulatory agencies. Another large segment of this kind of information. however, is

proprietary and not available to the general

public, Government executive departments, or

Congress.

A principal source of “open” inventory and

economic information includes the more than

20 Federal Government agencies that collect

data elements from materials-oriented

organizations and publish aggregated information. While much of the data are obtained on a

voluntary basis, many of the agencies derive

their collection authority from specific legislation. For example, the Bureau of the Census

has conducted a census of minerals (currently

on a 5-year cycle) since 1840. The Intern ational Trade (Tariff) Commission reports the

annual domestic product ion and sales of synthetic organic chemicals and the raw materials

for producing them under provisions of the

Tariff Act of 1930.

The volume of Government-generated information is very large. As one indicator of its

scope, the Bureau of Mines, one of the principal agencies in the minerals field, typically

issues some 750 separate reports each year.

One series, the Mineral Industry Survey,

covers some 250 reports containing economic

data on 95 commodities: some of these reports

are issued weekly, others monthly. and all are

issued annually. Other series cover a variety of

technical and economic subjects: in fiscal year

1975 they comprised over 20,000 published

pages.

Industry as well as Government analysts

rely on Government-derived information. In

many instances, no alternative sources exist

since individual firms are often reluctant to

provide comparable data to nongovernment

agencies and other firms do not accept as accurate the data that is gathered.3

) Moreover, for

legal [antitrust) reasons, individual firms or

associations may be, or consider themselves to

be, precluded from collecting industry wide,

national data,

4. Information Handling

The methods employed for collecting, sorting, consolidating, analyzing, and distributing

information to users vary with the category of

materials information. The most advanced in

terms of use of specialized facilities and

automation are the methods for handling

scientific and technical information. Since the

largest portion of this kind of information is in

documents, the principal means for processing

is the technical library. Processing functions

include all the basic library services: obtaining

and controlling documents, abstracting, indexing, and providing awareness of relevant new

information.

Many science-oriented materials organizations have formally recognized the importance

of information and formed special information

groups to supplement the normal library functions. In these groups, materials specialists

who develop a first-hand familiarity with the

literature perform a variety of personalized,

indepth services for the researcher. A 1959

survey of science-oriented chemical industries

showed that 40 percent of the responding

organizations spent from 1.5- to 2,5-percent of

their research budget on library/information

group activities; another 15 percent of the

organizations spent from 2.5 to 10 percent (ref.

11). Although more recent comprehensive

data are not available, there is reason to

suspect that the 1.5 to 2,5 percent-range may

1 A (:tls ~; i n pc] i n t [;(I n (;errls t o ] u en e. ~rod U C t i O n

stat istics compiled by a trade ossm; iat ion based on vol un -

tary submissions have been found to differ hy as much as

40 percent from similar stat istics puhl ishcd hy the

Govern mf;n t.

36
still be representative. A large automobile

company currently spends 1.5 percent of its

research budget on technical information services; the National Bureau of Standards allocates 2 percent of its budget to information

services.

Over the past .20 years, the researchoriented information processing functions

have been expanded through the development

of several new computer services. One appl i cat ion is the automatic preparation of

bibliographies of selected fields, a service now

broadly available for purchase or lease at

relatively low cost. Another application involves advances in indexing and the use of interactive searching. in which the researcher

observes the output of a computer in realtime

and appropriately redirects its search rout inc.

Computers have also had wide use for selective dissemination of information, in which

reports are distributed on the basis of a computer comparison of individuals’ interest

profiles with assigned index characteristics. A

variety of other advanced computer functions

have also been suggested (ref. 12).

One of the other new services that have

developed for scientific and technical information is the information analysis center. Information analysis centers are:

... formally structured organizational units,

specifically (but not necessarily exclusively]

established for the purpose of acquiring.

selecting, storing, retrieving, evaluating.

analyzing. and sythesizing a body of information and/or data i n a clearl y d e f i n ed

specialized field or pertaining to a specified

mission with intent of compiling. digesting.

repackaging, or otherwise organizing and presenting pertinent information and/or data in a

form most authoritative, timely. and useful to

a society of peers and management, (ref. 13)

Forerunners of information analysis centers

date back to the 19th century, but their modern

development began with the rapid expansion

in major research and development programs

following World War 11. Some of the earliest

centers were materials-oriented. Since 1958,

they have proliferated, and there are now

about 100 federa11y sponsored centers of

CHAPTER 11

which about half (58) are materials-oriented,

In addition there are perhaps a half-dozen

materials information analysis centers that are

totally privately financed. Table II-6 lists some

of the federally supported materials-oriented

centers, as compiled by The National Referral

Center.

Typically. the services provided by an in format ion analysis center include both center- initiated products of general interest to all

subscribers and custom-tailored services in

response to user requests. Examples of the

former are critical data compilations (in which

an authority in the field reviews and co m -

ments on the validity of newly acquired data),

bibliographies. state-of-the-art reviews, and

newsletters. Custom services include selective

1iterature searches and consultation on

specific problems,

The essential characteristics of th e

materials information analysis center that distinguishes it from a library are its focused area

of interest and the unique, specialized competence of its staff, The size and scope of operations of different centers vary greatly, Some

are staffed by as many as 100 or more professionals, others by as few as one or two.

Descriptions of a large, medium. and relatively

small center are presented in table 11-7,

In addition to information obtained from the

scientific - tech n i c a 1 category, i n formation

processing in support of the designer. the

engineer, the purchasing agent, and others

concerned with the practical applications of

materials leans heavily on technical trade information. In contrast to the approaches that

have evolved for servicing the research and

technology community. there are few standardized approaches for handling technica1

trade information. Most corporations, even the

largest, rely on procedures that are locally

devised and implemented by the various

engineering groups. An exception, perhaps indicative of a trend. is the Engineering

Materials and Processes Information System

(EMPIS) operated by the Corporate Research

and Development t group of the General

Electric Company (GE). In operation for 40

37
CHAPTER II

Table n-6.-Some Materials-Oriented Information Analysis Centers

Name

Air Pollution Technical lnformation

Center (APT ICI

Alloy Data Center

Atomic Energy Levels Dat a

Center

Atomic Transition Probabilities

Data Center

Bureau of Mines Associate Director

Mineral and Materials Supply

Demand Analysis

Bureau of M)nes—Mineral Supply

Alaska Field Operation Center

Bureau of Mines --Mineral Supply

Eastern Field Operation Center

Bureau of Mines—M,neral Supply

Western Field Operation Center

Chemical Kinetics Information

Center

Chemical Propulsion Information

Agency (CPIA\

Chemical Thermodynamics Data

Center

Controlled Fusion Alomic Data

Center

Criticality Data Center

Cryogenic Data Center

Crystal Data Center

Data Center for Atomic and

Molecular lonization Processes

Data Center on Atomic

Line Shapes and Shifts

Diatomic Molecule Spectra and

Energy Levels Center

Diffusion in Metals Data Center

DOD NucIear Information and

Analysis Center (DASIAC)

Earth Resources Observation

System (EROS) Data Center

Ecological Sciences Information

Center

Electrolyte Data Center

Electronic Properties

Information Center (FPIC)

Energy Information Center

Environmental Information

Analysis Center (EIAC)

Environmental lnformation DIVIsion

Environmental Mustagen lnformation Center

Location

Cleveland Ohio

Washington DC

Washington DC

Washington DC

Washington DC

Juneau Alaska

Pittsburgh PA

Denver Colo

Washington DC

Silver Spring MD

Washington DC

Oak Ridge TN

Oak Ridge TN

Boulder Colo 

Washington DC

Washington DC

Washington DC

Washington DC

Washington DC

Santa Barbara CA

Sioux Falls SD

Oak Ridge TN

Washington DC

West Lafayette IND

Oak Ridge TN

Columbus ohi o

Maxwell AF Base ALA

Oak Ridge TN

Operator

National Aeronautics and

Space Admin

Alloy Physics Sect Ion

NBS

NBS

Dept of the Interior

Physical Chemistry Division

John Hopkins Univ

NBS

Oak Ridge Natl Lab

Union Carbide Corp

NBS

NBS

NBS

NBS

NBS

NBS

GE TEMPO

U S Geological Survey

Oak Ridge Natl Lab

NBS

Purdue University

Oak Ridge Natl Lab

Battelle Mem Inst

AIr Training Command

Oak Ridge Nail Lab

Sponsor

NBS

NBS

16 full-time 9 engrs

NBS and U S Naval Ordinance

Command

Defense Supply Agency Depts

of the Navy Army and Air

Force and Nail Aeronautics

and Space Admin

NBS

ERDA

ERDA

NBS NASA American Gas

Assoc

NBS

NBS

NBS

NBS

NBS

DNA

AEC

NBS

DSA

Nail Science Foundation

RANN Program

ERDA

ERDA Natl Inst of

Environmental Health

Staff Size

13 full -time

2 full -time 2 part-time

1 physicist 1 chemist

1 full -time clerical asst

2 part- time physicists

300

1 geologist

35 full-time

40 full-time

3 professionals 1 semiprofessional 2 clerical

1 1 professional physicists

chemists and engineers

and 1 1 staff members

7 chemists 1 technical

asst 2 clerks

4 Scientists 2 non technicals

(full- time)

1 professional and

1 2 nonprofessional

Full- time 4 physicists

1 chemist 2 engrs 1 documentation spvr 3 clerks

part-time 1 physicist

1 engr 3 clerks

Full-time 3 crystallo

graphers 1 technical asst

? professionals and full-time

clerical support

1 part-time physicist

2 full-time and 4 part-time

24 full-time

210 full-time

1 manager 3 lnformation

Specialists-biologists

( 1 half-time) 2 information

technician assistants

2 part-time

4 full-time 4 part-time

3 full-time

3 full- time

4 full -time

2 full-time 1 part-time

Eutrophication lnformation

Program

Madison WIS University of Wisconsin

Sciences

Dept of the Inter

Dept of Agric

U S Environ Protect Ion Agency

Univ of Wisconsin

1 full time 5 part-time
CHAPTER 11

Table n-6.-Some Materials-Oriented Information Analysis Centers (Continued)

Name Location operator Sponsor Staff Size

Gamma-ray Spectrum Catalogue Idaho Falls Idaho Nail Reactor Testing Station ERDA 12 part-time

Health and Safety Analysis

Center Denver Colo DOl 66 engineers statisticians

mathematicians and clerks

High Pressure Data Center Provo Utah Brigham Young Univ NBS 2 full-time 1 part-time

Infrared Information and Analysis Ann Arbor Mich Environmental Res Inst of Det Supply Agency Office of 4 full-time 412 clerical

Center (IRIA) Michigan Naval Research 30 to 40 technical staff

members

LMFBR Fuel -Cladding In forma

tion Richland Wash Hanford Engr Dev Lab ERDA 5 full time 1 part -time

Machinability Data Center Cincinnati Ohio Metcutl Research Assoc Inc Army Materials and Mechanics 8 Iull-time 5 part tilme

Research Center Watertown

Mass

Mechanical Pro Dept, es Data

Center Traverse City Mich Belfour Stulen Inc AMMRC Watertown Mass 13 full time

Metals and Ceramics Information CoIumbus Ohio Battelle Memorial Institule AMMRC Watertown Mass 100 paft time 21 full time

Center (MCIC)

Microwave Spectral Data Center Washington DC NBS NBS 1 sclentist

Molten Salts Data Center Troy NY Rensselaer Polytechnic Inst NBS Director and postdoctorate and

predoctorate co workers with

specialties in fused Sal S physical

properties and electroochemistry ,

National Oceanographic Data Rockville MD NOAA

Center

76 professionals and

43 nonprofessionals

National Space Science Data Greenbelt MD GSFC

Center

NASA 92 full [{me

Nondestructlve Testing Watertown Mass AMMRC AMMR 4 part time 3 technical

lnformafion Analysis Center professional and 1 clerk

Nuclear Data Project Oak Ridqe Tenn Oak Ridge National Lab FRDA 1 1 professionals and

8 nonprofessionals

NucIear Safety Inform a! or

Center Oak Ridge Tenn Oak Ridqe National Lab ERDA 12 part time

Phase Diagram Y for Ceramists Washington, D C NBS NBS American Ceramic Society, 3 part time

Inc

Photonu( leaf Dala Ccnfr-r tvashmqton D ( NR\ NBS 3 n IC If, ci, :>hk c,<, ‘.!~

1 <-lerl(

Physical Data GrouD Llvermore Cal(l Unlverwly 0! Call fnma 1 ) II, I !,n7#,

PI asttc $ T ec hn ,ca I Eva 111a [ ion

Cen!e, Dove, N J Arnl { Malcra Cr]n 1 7 !L, !,,,,<>

(P: ASTEC I

Rad!alton Chemlslry Data Cenf~r No!re Ddme Ind Rarhal,[)~ : Ab NBS [ RDA 4 II $,, I \mf, .) pa, ! 1 rn~

Rad! at(on Sh(eldlng I. formation Oak Rtctgf Tenr o iK R,dqe Nat, r,rlal : ih F RDA De fe~se NUC ear Agenc !

Cenler

1 > !L, , f m,, 4 p<, rt I n f

~ member li?chnlc d .itiv !, ,, ,

r ,,nm,llpp

Rare Earth Inlo.mat, on Center Ames Ir w,% 10 #a $lal~ IJmvfLr?lt\ FRDA

(RIC ~

1 5 f,l I 111716. 1 [14r! I F,+.

1 half I I-1P

Qelabllf!y Analys, s Center Gr, ff!ss 4tr F err,. Base N ~ R.l DC FiBFi AC I Grlf, ss Alr Force Base 1 > f[,ll l!mt.

Andr?es 4( I F orre F3as@

Rock Properties Information W 0S! : ?td y~t!e :n(j Pordu(, ,)n, , +..5,1 , Nat, ona ISc ,enr e F o.)~dat,c F 6 Dart t.mv

Center (RPIC} IRANNl Purdue s Ther,nn

phys cal Properties Research

Conler

;hock and V! bratlon Information kia$h!nglo~ O C N,iv+l Rpscarch . ah Oc PI of De fensP & Nafl F fh,l l,nl.

:enter API onat, !tr Y 8 %acc Adm]n

;uperconductlue Ma fer(als Data Schencr !ddv N Y f,pneral E lf~ctrtc hJt3i ? IIarl t m<,

qew~arch 8 DP v C II

able of Isotooes Pro;ect Be,k PIey C ~1 f !Jn,,, c f C all f.)rn, d NBS ~ F3DA 1 5t>n, or r,”]p Im. r 4 IL, Ilmf.

? p >r, ! ,rnt, 1 t ? r.,s,

1 r omp[, tr.r ar~q,amm,,r

hermophysucal Properties Wesl .atayetle Ind ~L)rdt,cz k)nl~ U 5 GQverr)mc, nl Aqenc (c5 ADPr C x lmat,’ , { T

Iesearcn Center [TPRC)

OX)C Ma!er!als !ntormal, on Oak Rdq~ Tf, nn Pql. IWfqc PJ It I , ih rJ?!l <r Pn, F f r ,,noat I rn AFC

;enl~r ITMIC )

5 n,olessitmd \

JSAF Enwrnnmental T@ch V. ash,nqtn,l O C W+. Y YarrJ Ann6a x LJ < )’,. 1 U,C< .U>r)

(pol,calio~$ Center

( flay Attenuat,o~ Coeftlr tent Wa$hlnqton D c NUS N8S Delwwo ri~,c le,~~ 1 f(, I I MT 1 1 4 hme

TIormat(on Cent6. r Agen, \ DP!)I of OelePC, I=

Source National Referral Center D/rerfory o f Fedefalv Suoported Irtforrna (ion Analvss Cenfers Washington D C Library ot Congress 1974

39
CHAPTER 11

Table n-7.-Large, Medium, and Small Specialized Materials Information Analysis Centers

METALS AND CERAMICS INFORMATION CENTER (MCIC)

Battelle Memorial Instltute

Columbus Laboratories

Columbus Ohio 43201

SPONSOR Department of Defense

Off Ice of the Director of Defense

Research and Englneerlng under a

Defense Supply Agency contract

monitored by the Army Materials and

Mechanics Research Center, Watertown, Mass

YEAR STARTED 1955

STAFF 100 part-time professional

technicals (20 percent), 7 full-time

professional technicals, 4 full-time in -

formation specialists and 10 full-time

typing and clerical

MISSION To provide technical assistance and information on materials within

the Center s scope, with emphasis on

application to the defense community

SCOPE Metals Titanium, aluminum and

magnesium beryllium refractory metals

high-strength steels, superalloy (primarily nickel- and cobalt-base alloys)

and rhenium and vanadium Ceramics

Borides, carbides, carbon/‘graphite

nitrides oxides, sulfides SI Iicides in -

termetallics, and selected glasses and

glass-ceramics Composites of these

materials, coatings, environmental

effects mechanical and properties

materials applications, test methods

sources suppliers, and specifications

other materials mutually agreed upon by

the contractor and the Government

HOLDINGS Reports on Governmentsponsored research journals patents

data, trade literature books

PUBLICATIONS Monthly newsletter

(disseminated free by the Center to anyone engaged in materials research

development, or utilizatlon), a series of

weekly reviews on developments in

metals technology, a monthly review of

ceramic technology, a variety of

engineering reports and handbooks related to the utilizatlon of advanced

metals and ceramics The reviews,

reports and handbooks are available at

cost from the National Technical lnformation Service

SERVICES Answers to technical inquir -

ies, bibliographies, Iiterature, searches

and special studies are provided on a

fee basis depending on the time involved

QUALIFIED USERS Services ar e

available to the technical community

without restrictions

MACHINABILITY DATA CENTER

Metcut Research Associates Inc

Clnclnnati Ohio 45209

SPONSOR The center IS operated by

Metcut Research Associates Inc under

contract to the Defense Supply Agency

with technical aspects being monitored

by the Army Materials and Mechanics

Research Center Watertown, Mass

YEAR STARTED 1964

STAFF 7 machining data analysts (3

full-time and 4 part-time), 3 systems and

data processing personnel (2 full-time

and 1 part-time), 1 document acquisitioner (full-time), 1 user/inquiry controller (full-time), and 1 management

(full-time)

MISSION To collect evaluate, store

and disseminate material removal information including specific and detailed

machining data for all types of materials

and material removal operations both

conventional and unconventional

SCOPE All kinds of material removal

operations such as turning milling drill -

ing grinding, eIectrical discharge

machining electrochemical machining

chemical machining, etc with strong

emphasis on engineering evaluation for

the purpose of developing optimized

material removal parameters such as

speeds feeds depths of cut tool

material and geometry cutting fluids

and other significant variables

HOLDINGS Over 32000 evaluated

documents that can be retrieved

specifically by content using a computerized system

PUBLICATIONS MDC Machining Briefs

(distributed free to MDC Users)

NCECO-N/C Maching Costs (com -

puter program 1 973) Machining Data

Handbook (2d ed 1972), Machining 01

High Strength Steels with Emphasis on

Surface Integrity (1970), Determination

and Analysis of Machining Costs and

ProductIon Rates Using Computer Tech -

niques ( 1968), Machining Data for

Nurnerical Control (1 968) and 1968 Supplement to Machining Data for Numerical Control Grinding Ratios for Aero -

space A//oys ( 1966) Machining Data for

Beryllium Metal (1966), Machining Data

for Titanium A//oys (1 965)

SERVICES Answers inqulrles, provides

consulting, reference literature-search -

Ing abstracting and Indexing, and

reproduction services, provides R&D information conducts seminars, lends

materials, makes referrals to other

sources of Information, permits onsite

use of collection Answers to inquiries

that can be handled quickly over the

phone are provided free, other services

are provided on a fee basis

QUALIFIED USERS Anyone, with certain Iimitations in foreign disseminatlon

RARE-EARTH INFORMATION CENTER

(RIC)

En erg y and MineraI Resourc es

Research Institute

lowa State University

Ames lowa 50010

SPONSORS The Ames Laboratory of

the U S Atomic Energy Commission and

over 40 U S and foreign rare earth producers and advanced technology corporations

YEAR STARTED 1966

STAFF 1 5 full-time professional

(chemistry) and 1 part-time professional

(metallurgy) 1 half-time nonprofessional

MISSION To serve the scientific community by collecting storing evaluating

and disseminattng rare earth information

from various sources

SCOPE The Center IS concerned pri -

marily with the physical metallurgy and

solid state physics of the rare metals

and their alloys but it also maintains

files on the analytical Inorganic and

physical chemistry geochemistry

ceramics and toxicity of the rare earth

elements and compounds

HOLDINGS About 5 000 reprints

reports and books

PUBLICATIONS Rare Earth Information

Center News (quarterly distributed

free) technical reports state-of-the-art

reviews data compilations bibliogra -

phies

SERVICES Answers inquiries, provides

literature-searching and abstracting and

Indexing services, prepares in-depth

reports, makes referraIs to other

sources of Information, permits onslte

use of collection A minimum charge of

$25 has been set to cover the expenses

involved in answering most typical in -

quiries

QUALIFIED USERS Anyone

Source National Referral Center O~rectory of Federallv S[moorted lnformdt{on Analys/s Centers Washington D C Library 01

Congress 1974

40
years, EMPIS provides a systematized

materials description service for GE operating

departments. System output is principally in

the form of coded pages of text, tabulations,

and diagrams. Currently EMPIS contains over

21.000 pages: about 3,000 are added or updated

each year.

Some of the technical library services

described previously are also used to support

engineering information needs. SO too are the

materials information analysis centers; many

offer focused consul tat ion on particular

problems.

For support to management and related

planning functions, inventory and economic

information is of principal interest; of course.

information from the other categories is involved as well. Even less than procedures for

handling technical trade i n format ion,

standardized processing procedures for the

management and planning functions are undeveloped. To be sure. materials industries

have always recognized the need to be able to

project the demand for their products. This is

an essential element in planning plant

capacity and related production inputs, and a

variety of planning tools have been developed

for the purpose, each unique to a particular

business. But the emphasis was uniformly on

projected demand. Although some significant

materials shortages occurred in the 1950’s, it

was not until 1973–74, when supplies suddenly

became exceedingly short, that the need surfaced to consider seriously the supply side of

the equation as well, In the face of the more

complex materials problems now emerging,

more sophisticated planning tools have had to

be developed which take a variety of supply

factors into account. Thus, a company which

converts raw materials to an intermediate

material needs to consider not only the effects

of interruptions in raw material supply but

also shifts in demand brought about by a shortage in a substitute raw material as well as the

uncertain intent ions of competitor producers.

The analytical techniques for accomplishing

such industrial analysis are still in the very

early stages of development, The problems are

;CHAPTER 11

very difficult and beyond the capability of

most companies. Only a very few large

organizations have formed special materials

strategy groups to deal with them. While the

analytical methods vary from one industry to

another, several common concepts are evident:

●

●

●

The strategy analysis draws on information from every aspect of the business:

resource and development, engineering.

purchasing. finance, and marketing. It demands a level of comprehensive skill that

is usually in very short supply and is

probably beyond the capability of smaller

companies to develop for themselves.

Specialized consulting companies are

beginning to offer this capability.

There is heavy reliance on information

that is available only from Government

sources.

Computers play only a minor role in the

analysis. At this stage of industria1 supply/demand model development, there

are few realtime constraints ca11ing for

computers. The principal challenge is for

analysts to derive proper analytica1 rela -

tionships. In the future. planning systems

conceivably might weigh the effects of

very short interval changes in supply and

demand estimates and in other exogenous

variables and report them t o

policy makers in near real-time. but it is

not clear when, or if, this will ever be

necessary.

While industrial organizations are concerned with analysis of their own supply/demand variables, Government agencies

are concerned with aggregated analysis. both

of selected industrial segments and of the

economy as a whole. A large number of agencies are involved in developing these analysis

procedures, A recent review of Government

activities to avert and alleviate materials

shortages showed that some 57 executive

agencies, 15 congressional committees, and 3

congressional offices are involved in policy

planning (ref. 14),

41
CHAPTER II

Just as inventory and economic information

is collected by agencies on an autonomous

basis, so too the Government’s systems for

processing inventory and economics in format ion have largely been uncoordinated. As an

outcome of the materials shortages of 1972–73,

efforts are now underway to improve this

situation, especially to effect closer coordina -

development of combined supply/demand

analytical models is still relatively immature,

Until the late 1960’s, few Government agencies were using sophisticated analytical techniques. Probably the most advanced were

those in the Department of Agriculture for

renewable materials, which were patterned

along those used for food commodities. With

tion within individual departments {such as regard

among the different groups in the Department sib i lit y

of the Interior). Nevertheless, the state of has not

E. SUMMARY

to mineral commodities, the responfor tying supply and demand together

been clearly established.

The review of existing materials in format ion systems confirms several impressions and

indicates several trends. Although largely uncoordinated. individual systems in industry,

academic institutions, and Government have

all played important contributing roles in the

development of U.S. materials policy, In the

past, and continuing even today, the most formally developed information systems deal

principally with scientific and technical informat ion. Least developed are the systems dealing with economic and inventory information,

and particularly lacking are the analytical information processing techniques for interpreting data. In the face of the growing need that

policy makers have for materials information,

these deficiencies become even more significant.

Whether or not, in light of emerging issues

and considerations, these systems adequately

meet the particular needs of Federal

policy makers is examined further in chapter

III.

F. REFERENCES

1.

2,

3.

4.

5.

42

Sowell, Thomas, Economics Analysis and

ISSU(:S, Glenview, Ill.: Scott, Foresman and

Company, 1971. p. 87.

Carlson, Walter M., cited in Garvey,

William D., Compton, Berlita E., “The

Flood and How to Survive It, ” The John

Hopkins Magazine, Fall 1967.

Wolfe, H. N., et al., The Economics of

Technica] Information Systems, New

York, N. Y.: Praeger Publishers, Inc., 1974.

Organisation for Economic Co-Operation

and Development, Information for a

Changing Society, Paris, France: OECD

Publications, 1971,

Wachtrnan, John B., Jr., Report on Survey

of Materials Oriented Scientific In formation Services, Task Force Group on Implementation of the Steering Committee of

the Proposed Federation of Materials

Societies, June 1, 1972,

Anderla, Georges, Information in 1985, A

Forecasting Study of Information Needs

and Resourf; es, France: Organisation for

Economic Co-Operation and Development,

1973.

National Science Foundation, Growth of

Scientific and Technical Information, A

Challenge, Washington, D. C, January

1974.

Hyslop, Marjorie R., A Brief Guide to

S o u r c es o f M e t a Is 1 n form a t i o n ,

Washington, D. C.: Information Resources

Press, 1973.
9.

10.

11.

%mmar, Helen C., A l?ricf (;(li(lc to 12.

Sf~urccs of Fiber {In(l Tcx(ilc lnf(~rm(llion,

Washington, D.(L: Information Resources

Press, 1973. 13,

Editorial. M(ltcri(ILs F;nginccring. November 1975. p. 5.

Knox. W.T.. “Administration of Technical 14.

Information Croups,” In(l[lstri(ll (In(l

Engineering Society, Vol 51, No, 3, March

1957,

(:llt\Pll{R II

Kemeny, John G. “1.i}}rary of the F’ut[ire, ”

Dartmouth College Library Bulletin. April

1972.

The Weinberg Report, as quoted in

Knginccring, Scientific and T(!(,’htlic(f]

(lommunic(liion, Washington, D,C.: National Academy of%iences, 19(W.

Harron. Meyer J,, and Crawford, John D.,

(~ () v f; r n IN (! n [ M a t c r i (1 Js A ~; I j 1 i [ i ~;s,

Wash ington, 13. C.: Federal Prepared nf’ss

Agency. July 1975.
Chapter Ill

THE NEED FOR

IMPROVING FEDERAL MATERIALS

INFORMATION SYSTEMS CAPABILITIES
Chapter Ill

THE NEED FOR

IMPROVING FEDERAL MATERIALS

INFORMATION SYSTEMS CAPABILITIES

The existing Federal materials information systems,

designed for different purposes, are loosely connected and do

not provide Government policy makers with adequate information

to deal with current materials issues. In particular, they cannot be

used to forecast possible shortages, judge their impacts and the

market’s ability to absorb them, or test the effectiveness of alternative policy responses.

The functional requirements needed to improve existing

materials information systems capabilities were developed

through a review of the literature and a series of interviews with a

cross-section of policy makers. H was found that more comprehensive and integrated systems capabilities were needed to

deal with current materials problems. It was also noted that these

capabilities should include techniques for interrelating data

regarding the principal supply and demand factors so as to illuminate their effects on materials flow.

A. INTRODUCTION

In responding to materials problems.

(government policy makers rely on information

obtained from industry, academic institutions.

State and local governments, as well as from

Federal agencies For years the loosely

coupled system that assembled. organized.

a n a 1 yzed, and distributed this information

worked reasonably well. On the whole, the

problems policymakers confronted were

limited in scope, and timeliness generally was

not a critical factor. Thus for example, the

ability o f specialist at the N a t ion a l Aero -

nautics and Space Administration (NASA) to

obtain information needed to carry out space

programs. such as the state of development of

new advanced composites to replace t i tan i u m

and other metals, was generally satisfsctory,

Similarly, international trade analysts at the

Departments of State and Commerce could

rely almost entirely on import and export

statistics assembled by the Bureau of the Cen -

sus and the International Trade Commission.

Serious shortcomings in the ability of these

materials information systems to deal with

shortage induced crises were first spotlighted

in 1973 and 1974. Then, faced with the need to
Chapter III

determine quickly whether the effects of the

wheat shortage and the oil embargo could be

contained by the market or whether Governm e n t i n te rac t i o n w o ul1 d be req u i red,

policy makers found that their information

systems were deficient, This portion of the

assess men t examined whether or n o t t h a t cond it ion was symptomatic of general shortcomings in the Govern men t’s materials information capability and, if so, whether and how it

might be corrected.

The assessment consisted of a series of stepby-step analyses in which hypotheses were

advanced, tested, and successively reshaped.

The initial steps in this approach proceeded as

follows:

● The literature on materials information

was critically reviewed.

● Based on information gathered from the

literature, a tentative thesis was advanced that a significantly improved

●

●

●

The

system was needed, and a set of provisional functional requirements for it was

tentatively postulated.

These premises were checked against the

perceived needs of experts, as expressed

in earlier studies and pending congressional act ions on materials inform at ion

systems.

The premises were further tested and

sharpened through a series of interviews

w i t h m a t e r i a 1s p o1 i c y m a k ers and

specialists,

In addition, views of several foreign experts with relevant experience were obtained.

results of these steps, described in this

chapter, supported the hypothesis that improved capabilities were needed and provided

the basis for subsequent analysis of how they

might be implemented.

B. LITERATURE REVIEW

Over the past 25 years there have been at

least four major studies of national materials

policy, The first was by the President’s

Materials Policy Commission in 1951, The second was begun in 1970 with the establishment

by Congress of the National Commission on

Materials Policy. In that same year the National Academy of Sciences appointed the

Committee on the Survey of Materials and

Engineering (COSMAT) to conduct a comprehensive survey of materials science and

engineering. Most recently, in 1974, Congress

established the National Commission on Supplies and Shortages. The reports of the three

completed studies refer to and, in varying

degrees. make suggest ions regarding the role

of information in formulating and executing

materials policy, These ideas were utilized in

this assessment.

In addition, the assessment drew on several

other studies which specifically focused on information aspects of materials. These included

4[3

two surveys by the National Materials Advisory Board of the National Academy of SCiences

(1959 and 1964), the U.S. General Accounting

Office’s review of the Government’s machinery for dealing with commodity shortages

(1974), and a survey of materials information

systems conducted by the Federation of

Materials Societies (1974). The findings of

these earlier efforts that bear on materials information aspects are briefly summarized

below:l

1. The President’s Materials Policy

Commission Report

The Paley Commission was established in

1951 in the aftermath of the major materials

1 In ~ldd it ion to the cited reports. several others (ref.

1,2,3) arc relevant for their development of a general

econorn ic theory of i n formation. The absen(; e to date of a

theory for evaluating the role of information in shaping

market forces may well have i m pealed the development t

of ma tcri a 1s inform at ion systems.
disruptions and price rises of the Korean War.

Not unlike the effects of the shortages of

1973-74, the Korean experience focused public

attention for the first time on materials issues.

The Commission examined all major aspects

of the problem of insuring an adequate supply

of production materials for meeting national

long-range needs. In its 1952 report, Resources

for Freedom: A Report by the President’s

Materials Policy (commission, the Commission

noted the need to improve the Government’s

“machinery”for anticipating changes in the

materials situation. Emphasizing the interrelated nature of materials issues, it held that:

The task of broadening and improving

Government analysis of materials problems

would take many forms. Butt improving the

various parts o f Goverment equipment dealing with the materials problem will not make

the whole operation run as it should. For all its

wide diversities the materials problem is indivisible. There must be somewhere, a

mechanism for looking at the problem as a

whole. for keeping track of changing stations

a n d t he i n t e r r elations of poicies an d

programs. This task must be performed by a

Federal agency near the top of the administrative structure(ref. 4).

Among its many findings and recommendations, the Report recommended that the

Department of the Interior strengthen its

programs for gathering and analyzing minerals

data. It cited several functions that an improved analysis capability required, among

them up-to-date information on resources and

reserves, stockpiles, and producer inventories.

As a basis for its own work, the Commission

developed a methodology for making longrange projections and applied it to predict (in

1952) the 1975 U.S. demand. It thereby provided an important stimulus to more deliberative, analytical use of data in formulating

materials policy. 2

YA critique of the Paley projections, comparing them

with acIucIl 1972 usage, was made by Cooper (ref. 5). He

found that the Commission underestimated growth in

population (by about 10 percent). and GNP (h)’ about 23

percent). Notwithstanding, they ovcroslim(i (cd the consumption of rnatf:rials for 17 of 24 minerals examined.

Crmper notes. among several other possihle reasons for

Chapter III

2. The National Commission on

Materials Policy Report

With emphasis primarily on minerals, the

1973 report of the National Commission on

Materials Policy, Materials Needs and the Environment, 7’oday and Tomorrow (ref. 6),

noted that “almost every aspect of policy work

on this area is handicapped by inadequate, inaccurate, or inaccessible information. It

recommended that improvements be instituted

with regard to data collection, data handling.

analysis, and reporting. The following

paraphrased excerpts indicate the thrust of the

findings:

●

●

Data Collection. An adequate, accurate,

and accessible data base is needed for

materials, energy, and environmental

policy development; available basic data

is generally inadequate. There is a need

for more complete and reliable data and

for continuing data acquisition. Information on mineral reserves and resources is

patchy, inaccurate, or obsolete; to be

useful, the data must be accurate, timely.

and complete before processing.

Data Handling. Data banks now used in

processing reports on mineral resources

are limited in number and highly

specialized in application: none permit a

comprehensive evaluation of materials

flow, An improved system must provide

for testing the accuracy of the data and its

adequacy for policy decisions. The

system requires a staff to search for

available data and issue periodic reports

on significant materials developments.

There needs to be user access to nonconfidential information from any file, A

the errors, that the Commission erroneously assumed

that relative prices of materials would remain constant.

The projected scarcities may in fact hairc de~cloped and

forced prices to rise. thereby inhibiting demand. Cooper

shows ev iden(; e of this effect. He also notes that the

Commission grossly underestimated the level of investment that would be made in plant and equipment (hy 100

percent). The higher than anticipated investments in

technology may have increased the effectiveness with

which materials were used and thus reduced demand.

q:]

80-678 [) - 77 - 5
CHAPTER III

basic task would be to establish standard

terms and parameters, methods of collecting data based on those standards, and

systems for organizing or filing the data.

The data should be in computerized

storage to facilitate their utilization.

● Analysis. Techniques for supply and demand forecasting must be improved; essential to analysis are sound historical

records.

● Reporting. Interpretations of analyses and

evaluations should be “packaged” in such

form as to assist all users of the system;

they should be released periodically and

on special demand.

The Commission concluded that it was

feasible and desirable for the Federal Government to establish a national inventory and information center on minerals (including fuels).

They saw the new information system servicing many activities, including problem solving,

program development, decisionmaking, and

policy formulation. To be organized under the

Department of the Interior (pending establishment of a new Department of Natural

Resources), it would make extensive use of

computer technology and would draw on existing, unused computer capacity wherever

possible.

3. The COSMAT Report

The National Academy of Sciences Committee on the Survey of Materials Science and

Engineering (COSMAT) published its findings

in summary form in 1974 under the title,

Materials and Man Needs (ref. 7). In 1975, it

issued a multivolume supplementary report

detailing background information. Whereas

the National Commission on Materials Policy

tended to view materials as commodities with

emphasis on their role in commerce, COSMAT

emphasized the technological aspects of

materials; it attempted to show how science

and engineering could be marshaled to address materials problems. Their principal findings covered opportunities for materials

research and development, Governmental and

industrial roles in materials research, and

recommendations for strengthening the base

of technical manpower through improvement

in materials education. While information

systems, per se, were not considered in any

detail, COSMAT did note the need of the

multidisciplinary materials field for improvements in materials data and statistics gathering.

4. The National Materials Advisory

Board Surveys

The National Materials Advisory Board

(NMAB), a division of the National Academy

of Sciences National Research Council, was

probably the first group to examine materials

information in detail. In 1959, at the request of

the Department of Defense, the Board sought

the opinions of users of materials information

systems on their effectiveness, specifically to

illuminate these issues:

●

●

●

●

The seriousness of the problem of dissemination of materials information;

The deficiencies existing in the present

(1959) arrangement:

Whether certain substantive areas had

greater deficiencies than others; and

What changes would best correct any existing deficiencies,

A questionnaire was sent to 3.500 people,

and replies were received from approximately

2,000. The results provided an important early

insight to user needs and preferences (ref. 8).

From the 57-percent return (compared with

20 to 30 percent normally encountered in mail

surveys), the Board concluded that respondents considered the subject of materials information systems to be very important; in fact.

more than 60 percent of the respondents provided expanded, narrative opinions. Reflecting

a population that was decidedly scientifically

oriented, respondents considered dissemination of information on applied research to be

of greatest importance, followed, in turn, by

50
basic research. development, and application

engineering. With regard to which areas were

encountering deficiencies, basic research and

applied research and development were cited

most often.

Users indicated a need for improvements in

all types of basic information services. in particular abstracts, interpretive summaries, ann u a 1 r eviews, d o c u m e n t d is t r i b u t i on.

bibliographic lists, information collection,

technical answering services, and accession

lists. Administrators stressed the need for current in forma t ion: engineers wanted individual

service fro m a technical answering faci1ity.

While all areas of materials science and technology were considered as having i n formation

handling deficiencies, those concerned with

high-temperature and high-strength materials,

lightweight materials. plastics, and ceramics

appeared to have greater shortcomings than

others.

With regard to how information systems

might be improved, more than 85 percent of

the respondents favored the general idea of

materials information analysis centers. About

60 percent of the respondents felt that evaluation of information for scientific soundness

was a necessary function. On the role of

Government in fostering improvements, 94

percent of the respondents considered such a

role to be suitable (about 95 percent were then

us i n g existing Government systems):

however. having the information services

a v a i lable fro m nonprofit institutions was considered even more suitable. Respondents were

asked to specify which Government and nongovernment bodies should serve in a continuing advisory capacity (quite apart from administrative control) with respect to materials

information: 1,359 respondents cited Govern -

ment agencies. w i t h the Department of

Defense and the National Academy of

Sciences leading the list: some 581 respondents

listed nongovernment bodies.

As to which Government agency should

take the lead in managing and upgrading the

inform at ion system. should such a decision be

made, about 40 percent of the respondents

preferred the Department of Defense. An

equal number preferred a civilian agency, the

Department of Commerce being the first

choice. Some 20 percent preferred nongovernmen t control, the Nationa1 Academy of

Sciences being the first choice. Only 4 percent

saw industry assuming this role.

In the years following the NMAB study, the

Department of Defense expanded its support

of materials information analysis centers, In

1964, the NMAB undertook a follow-up

survey, this time focusing on user’s percept ions of 10 DOD-supported centers. To obtain a

more complete response than could be obtained from a mailed questionnaire some 350

people from 43 organizations were personally

interviewed.:] Table III- 1 shows the centers

covered and the distribution of persons interviewed. The findings (ref. 10) provided a

detailed breakdown of who was using the centers and for what, Representative of these

findings, figure III-1 illustrates how users

rated information centers relative to other

means of acquiring information. Figure 111-.2

shows the relative use of the centers by

category of user. Interestingly. some 80 percent of industry, Govern men t, and research institute people used the centers, but less than 50

percent of university people.

The overall finding of the review was that

materials information analysis centers were

filling an important need and should be encouraged, In the following years they did

grow. with strong support from the Department of Defense, the National Bureau of

Standards, and other agencies. In 1972,

however. a major change occurred: the

Department of Defense initiated a policy

I A I)rl 11 (: i ~)il 1 s h o rt(:o m i ng () f s [I r’i’ (I l’s i n t h is i] I.(>:) +) x -

p(~ri[!n(:e(i in the M AB sur~’t~}’s ;In(l oth(’rs. i n[:lll(ii n~

thoso conciuctwi as part of this ,lss(wsm~’n t—is th(~

(1 i ffi (: \I 1 t ~’ of 01) t:1 i n i ng (1 n i fern) i n t f’rpr(> 1:1 i ion of qufJs1 ions, ‘1’hf> prol)l (’n] is ( I x ilf; [’rt)c] I (I(i I)(’(:<i u s[I ‘‘ m os t s(: ion -

t i Sts a n (1 f’nx i n f’(’rs (I sf’ i n form iI t ion sf’ri i (:f’s on 1 \

s p( ) ri] ( i i (: i) 11 L’: t h ~ I i [’ {I \\ I ;I IV ‘n ( ISs () f \\’ h ,1 t t h ()\’ (:()(] ](i t)(>

(IS i n~ is i’(’r~r i n(:om pl(’t (’. ,ln(i m or(” s(’riousl}.th(’~ (io not

r(’fl(’(; t on th(’i r ()~~ n ~]il t torn of il(; t i \r i t i(w su ffi(: ion t IT to

I)(’ ill)ll’ to (i(~s(;rit)f) it ” (rff. 9).
CHAPTER IIIl

Table IIl-1_National Materials Advisory Board Study of Information Analysis Centers

DOD Materials Information Centers and Collections

Mechanical Properties Data Center (MP) (Belfour Engineering Company, Suttons Bay, Michigan)

Binary Constitution Information Service (BINARY) (Illinois Institute of Technology Research Institute, Chicago,

Illinois)

The Groth Institute (Groth) Florida Atlantic University, Boca Raton, Florida)

Thrmophysical Properties Research Center (TPRC) (Purdue University, West Lafayette, Indiana)

Electrical and Electronic Properties Information Center (EPIC) (Hughes Aircraft, Culver City, California)

Radiation Effects information Center (REIC) (Battelle Memorial Institute, Columbus, Ohio)

Ceramics and Graphite Information Center (C&G) (Aeronautical Systems Division, Wright-Patterson Air Force

Base, Ohio)

Centralizing Activity for Shock, Vibration and Associated Environments (SHOCK) (Naval Research Laboratory,

Washington, D.C.)

Defense Metals Information Center (DMIC) (Battelle Memorial Institute, Columbus, Ohio)

Plastics Technical Evaluation Center (PLASTEC) (Picatinny Arsenal, Dover, New Jersey)

Distribution of Persons Interviewed

Organization Nature of Work Materials Interest

Industry 197 Basic Research 64 Metals 7 0

University 46 Applied Research 149 Ceramics 11

Government 87 Design Engineering 31 Composites 15

Research Institute 23 Administration 13 Organics 41

Total 353 Information Activity 72 Research Materials

Other (High purity) 23

Nature of Responsibility (Service activities, Materials

Administrator 24 e.g., testing and (Across-the board

Supervisor analysis, pilot plant) 24 or combinations

Specialist 1 8 1 Total 3 5 3 of materials) 185

Total 353 Total 3 5 3

Source: National Materials Advisory Board, Dissemination of Information on Materials.

under which centers would charge users for

services, Previously, the service was free to

qualified Government and contractor personnel. Centers that could not become self-supporting would be closed. Indicative of the

general problem of developing information

services when the value of information is not

clearly recognized—a condition that still exists—the views of the Department’s spokesman are of interest:

We repeatedly claim that technical information is a very valuable resource and that our

technical information activities produce great

benefits—yet to varying degrees we have

failed to convince the people who control our

resources that this is indeed true. Their quite

logical response is—” OK. if it’s so great, then

the users certainly should be willing to foot

the bill. ” Frequently our response is—”Ah

yes. but unfortunately the user and the people

who control his resources do not realize how

valuable our services are-an d besides, they

are not accustomed to paying for i n formation

services. ” To me. the message is clear-if wc

are t o m a i n t a i n v i able i n formation a ac t i v i t i es.

we must do a better job of establishing the

benefits of these activities. Se:rvice charges are

one mechanism of establishing benefits which

is clearly understandable to the people who

have to make resource decisions for technical

information activities (ref. 11),

5. GAO REPORT ON COMMODITY

SHORTAGES

The General Accounting Office’s (GAO)

review, U.S. Actions Needed To Cope With

Commodity Shortages (ref. 12), covered the

performance of the Government’s materials

information system during the 1973–74

materials crises, The study found that the executive department agencies responsible for

commodities . monitoring and forecasting

lacked sufficient organizational or analytical

52
CHAPTER 111

Figure Ill-1. DOD Materials Information Centers-Relative Use by Type of Organization.

BINARY

SHOCK

(l%)

(2%)

INDUSTRY PEOPLE

(2%)

I

None

EPIC

GOVERNMENT PEOPLE

BINARY (4%)

—

(4%)

UNIVERSITY PEOPLE RESEARCH INSTITUTE PEOPLE

Source: National Materials Advisory Board, D~sserninatjon of /formation on AAateria/s.

Note: See table Ill-1 for the names of centers.
CHAPTER Ill

Figure III-2. Tools or Techniques for Acquiring Information for Various Types of Needs

BEST FOR KEEPING CUR RENT

(AWARENESS)

/

(32%) I Literature

and

Reports

(38%)

FOR RECENTLY NEEDED INFORMATION

(IMMEDIATELY NEEDED SPECIFIC

INFORMATION)

— Center s

BEST FOR WORK DONE

IN THE PAST

TOTAL INFORMATION ACQUISITION

Literature

and

Reports

Source: National Materials Advisory Board, DLssemMationof /formation on AAateria/s.

5-I
CHAPTER III

resources to respond effectively to short supply situations that occur with little warning.

Because short supply situations were long considered anomalies, coordinated procedures for

analysis and decisionmaking had not evolved.

a n d t h e existing m e t h o ds w ere ad hoc and

crisis-oriented. In large part. the problem

resulted from the multiplicity of departments.

agencies and councils involved in formulating

policy.

In particular, the study confirmed a view of

earl reviews: that unavailability of adequate

corn mod it y information had hampered decis ion making, For some of the (commodities

reviewed, necessary supply and demand in format ion was not available, incomplete, or in

dispute. Because of fragmented information

handling procedures. pertinent information,

even when it was available. may not have

been funneled to the people who needed it.

Many of these shortcomings also carried

over to long-range commodity policy planning.

Here, too. the study found that organization

a n d coordination among the involved agencies

needed improvement to clarify roles and missions. Throughout GAO’s analysis. the importance of effective information systems was

stressed:

Commodity policy analysis. decisionmaking

a n d p 1 a n n i ng can n o t be effective i f adequate

i n fo rm a t io n is n o t a vailable. Commodity

policy decisions can have only limited utility.

a n d m a y even be counterproductive, if t h ey

are’ not guided by a set of established longrange policies and extensive data gathering

has little value; if the data is not effectively

used for analysis. Data gathering. analysis.

forecasting. decisionmaking, and planning

must be (considered together for the system to

function properly (ref. 12).

The GAO study noted that the development

of an information system for mineral com -

modities posed a more difficult challenge than

for agricultural commodities. Among the complicating elements are the larger number of

minerals for which the United States depends

on foreign supply and the inherent difficulty

in measuring and projecting resources within

the earth (in contrast to those that are visible

at the surface). Because of long-term efforts of

the Department of Agriculture in developing

crop forecasting systems (initially in support

of production incentive programs), the in format ion systems for agricultural commodities

are more advanced than for minerals. The

GAO study concluded that for mineral commodities, “the quantity, quality. accessibility,

and interchangeability of data is inadequate

for the task of developing natural resources

and environmental policies” (ref. 12).

The study emphasized the need for improvements in analytical techniques for interpreting and projecting the data. Citing certain exceptions, e.g., the Economic Research

Service (ERS) within USDA. GAO observed

that:

Most of the research and analysis in commodity forecasting is a result of informed

opinion rather than such scientific methods aS

partial simulation models embodying judgment and statistical relationships or fully computerizcd models. . . . Methods used arc

generally selected in an ad hoc manner from a

variety of sources not programmed by type of

inquiry or analysis. The research is not based

on a steady accumulation of data and analysis.

Agencies. therefore. rely on an individual

a n a l ys t‘s e x p ertise. developed w i t h i n t h e

organizat ion on specific commodities.. and do

not build a general data base that can be used

as a permanen t record. Relying on such com -

mod i ty expertise hinders the developmen t of

stand ads of reliab i1ity and improved forecasting (ref. 12),

Looking to the future. the report noted the

growing number of domestic and international

factors that affect the severity and complexity

of shortage situations and concluded that existing policymaking procedures did not adequately interrelate them.

6. The Federation of Materials Societies

Survey

In contrast with the focus of the GAO study

on Government systems, this review covered

the entire spectrum of materials information

systems. Conducted by the Federation of

55
CHAPTER III

Materials Societies at OTA’S request, its purpose was to obtain a quick hut comprehensive

survey of the breadth and intensity of the

materials information problems confronting

users. As reported (ref. 13), a questionnaire

was designed and sent to some 4,OOO professionals having evinced an interest in materials

information. About 700 replies were received.4 

The distribution of respondents, shown in

figure 111-3, indicates roughly equal representation from industry and universities. with less

coverage of Government. Respondents’ fields

of speciality were predominantly in science

and advanced engineering. with less coverage

in practical design engineering, and still less in

economic aspects. Table 111-2 presents selected

results of the survey bearing on four points of

particular interest to this assessment. namely:

●

●

●

●

Importance of improved materials informat ion systems;

Perceived needs the improved systems

should address;

How such systems should be institutionalized; and

How the costs should be borne.

Almost 9 out of 10 respondents judged

materials information to be important or highly critical. Fewer than half regarded the present scope of information systems as good, with

many noting needs not being served. Twothirds spoke of deficiencies in quality. and

almost half criticized the accessibility of information. The most frequently cited needs related to up-to-date, reliable compilations of

data. A smaller number of respondents cited

the need for more complete economic statistics

and the problems introduced by the proprietary nature of much of this information. A

striking point that emerged from the survey

was the great diversity of the sources of information that users call on. Asked to name the

top four specific sources of materials information that they use, the 688 respondents (not all

of whom answered the question) cited 574

~An addition ;11 ~ofJ r~p] ][;S r~c;~iv~d aft~?r ref. 13 WaS

prepared were not reported in the analysis.

56 1

different sources. Recognizing the difficulties

in satisfying this variety of needs, Westbrook

commented “This great diversity of important

sources is one of the root causes of materials

information problems*’ (ref. 13). With regard

to improved services, the respondents divided

about evenly as to whether they preferred a

single national system or a pluralistic network

of systems. More than half favored the sharing

of the costs of information management

among Government, users. and technical

societies.

In addition to the responses to the formal

questions, an unusually large number of respondents appended comments. Many covered

the frustrations met in using the systems; 5

others contained thoughtful suggestions for

improving it, Many of these additional comments were considered in this assessment.

7. Prospective Functional Requirements

of an Improved System

Analysis of these studies led to the thesis

that the Government’s ability to deal effectively with shortages needs to be improved.

and that such improvement should treat

materials information in an integrated.

systematic manner. That is, the problem demands a conceptual framework to interrelate

the multitude of different factors; data to be

collected on each of the factors; and all of it to

be so organized. coupled, and analyzed as to

display the inherent dynamics of the flow of

materials.

~In this connection,

interest:

‘*This (materials

Westhrook’s characterization is of

information) syndrome comprises

bewild&rment, apprehension. c~ismay. frustration.

and outrage: f3ewildormcn[ with respect to the

enormous volume and diversity of needed sourx; es

of information: A ppr[!hf!nsion as to the quality and

reliability y of those facts: l)ism(Iv at the redundan -

[;Y. gwPS, and 1~~ k of coordination b[; twreen i n for.

mation sources and systems: P’ruslr(llion with the

mechanics of search. retrieval and manipulation

of i n formation from the genera 1 store: and ( )U (r({gc

at the cost o f seek i ng a n d I oca t i ng n ceded i n formation ” (ref. 13).
.

CHAPTER 111

Figure III-3. Distribution of Respondents to FMS Survey

Government

AFFILIATION

Design

*

FUNCTION 668 DISCIPLINE

Source: J. H. Westbrook, “Materials Information: An Examination of the Adequacy of Existing Systems”.

57
CHAPTER 111

Table ill-2.—Selected Results of FMS Survey

A — Importance of Improved Materials Information System C — Favored Objective

Assessment Comprehensive, integrated

Highly critical 36.5% national system 44.070

Improved present pluralistic Important 48.5

Satisfactory 11.6 system 43.2

. . . . . . . , . , . No change 12.8

—-- A.- A

Attention, selected area only 3.3 I

 ”

Comprehensive, machine readable,

continuously updated information system 111

Handbooks, reviews, compilations with

critical evaluation and coordination 107

Lag in availability of information 47

Problem of proprietary information 46

Better economic statistics, supply/demand, etc. 42

Problems of coping with foreign information 29

D — Who Should Pay Costs?

Shared 54.270

Government mission

agency 22.8

User 17.6

Professional societies 3.5

Other 1.9

Source: J. H. Westbrook, “Materials Information: An Examination of the Adequacy of Existing Systems”.

An initial set of prospective functional re- areas of materials flow: (1) factors directly

quirements needed for improving th e affecting supply, (2) factors directly affecting

materials information system was developed. utilization, and (3) factors which indirectly

These were then refined through the inter- affect both. Table 111-3 indicates those prospecview process and subsequent analysis, The tive functional requirements cited or signififunctional requirements covered three general cantly implied in past materials studies.

C. REVIEW OF PENDING LEGISLATION

Reflecting considered analysis by Congressmen and their staffs, some 200 bills dealing

directly with materials and materials information were introduced in the 93d and 94th Congresses. These bills indicate a recognition of

the need for many of the prospective functional requirements, as shown in table 111-4.

The bills reflect the view that information

management problems such as coordination,

compatibility, and dissemination are limiting

effective analyses of materials shortages and

related environmental problems. The proposed legislation include provisions for improving the collect ion, standardization,

analysis, and reporting of materials information, covering information both on the longterm availability of critical materials and on

associated environmental problems.

Comparison of the bills introduced in the

93d Congress with those of the 94th Congress

indicates that the more recent bills show

greater awareness of the need for the supply

and utilization functions, It is interesting to

note that in response to changing priorities,

concern for incorporating an energy function

increased. while interest in the environmental

protection function leveled off,

D. INTERVIEWS WITH MATERIALS DECISIONMAKERS

The views of a sample of materials decision- capabilities were obtained through two sets of

makers regarding the need for and the charac - interviews. The first covered senior level ex -

teristics of improved information system ecutives having policy responsibilities. The
CHAPTER 111

Table 111-3.—Referenoes to Functional Requirements in Principal Materials Studies

President’s National

Functional Materials Commission on

Requirements Policy Materials COSMAT GAO

Commission Policy

supply

Resources inventory x x x

Reserves inventory x x

Industrial stocks x x x

Strategic stockpiling x

Economic stockpiling x

Import levels x x

Recovery/recycle potential x x x

Supply forecasting x x x x

Utilization

Production rate x x

Production capacity x

Consumption rate/patterns x x x

Export levels x x

Demand forecasting x x x x

Indirect

Price x x

Research and development x x x x

Materials substitution x x

Environment x x x

Energy x x

Investment capital x x

Transportation x x

Manpower x

second covered lower level materials shortcomings they experienced in using them,

managers concerned with a single. representative material-aluminum.

1. Senior Level Executives

Some 20 senior executives at the assistant

secretary level in the Federal Government and

5 similarity placed industry executives were

interviewed. Their affiliations and positions

are shown in table III-5,

A formal questionnaire was designed and

used to guide the discussions; however, the

executives’ views on all related issues were invited. To encourage the frankest expression of

views, it was agreed that individual responses

would not be attributed but would be aggregated for publication, Generally, the respondents described the policy questions they were

called upon to answer. the information

systems they used, and the strengths and

The discussion focused on two related questions: (1) To what extent did the executive see

the need for improved materials information

capabilities? and (2) What capabilities did they

consider most important?

With respect to the nature of materials

questions they confront, the majority of respondents cited requests from the department

secretary or assistant secretary as being most

common. Less frequent were lateral inquiries

from other departments or Congress, There,

the common pattern of information flow was

vertical from the secretary through the specific

assistant secretary through the appropriate

policy or planning office responsible for preparing the response. In most cases, all information used in answering the request was

developed from within the department;

seldom did one department go to another for

information,
CHAPTER III
Table 111-5-Materials Executives

Interviewed

Assistant Director for Research, U.S. Geological

Survey, Department of the interior

Manager, Material Strategy Department, Ford Motor

co.

Director, Federal Preparedness Agency, General Services Administration

Director, Office of Planning and Evacuation, Department

of Agriculture

Director, OBRA, Department of Commerce

Senior Fellow, Resources for the Future, Inc.

Director, Bureau of Mines, Department of the Interior

Assistant Secretary for Economic and Business Affairs,

Department of State

Assistant Secretary, Land and Water Resources,

Bureau of Land Management, Department of the Interior

Former Deputy Director, Washington Environmental

Research Center

Senior Specialist, Congressional Research Service,

Library of Congress

.

Deputy Administrator, General Services Administration

Assistant Secretary for Economic Policy, Department

of the Treasury

Deputy Assistant Secretary, International Resources

and Food Policy, Department of State

Acting Assistant Attorney General, Department of

Justice

Head, Energy and Materials Division, Resources for the

Future, Inc.

Director, U. S. Geological Survey, Department of the

interior

Associate Director, Mineral and Materials Suppty/Demand Analysis, Bureau of Mines, Department

of the Interior

Vice President, Government Relations; Director of Environmental Services, National Coal Association

Director, Agricultural Economics, Department of

Agriculture

Deputy Assistant Administrator, Federal Energy Administration

President, Reynolds Metals Corporation

Former Administrator, Federal Energy Administration

Chief, Trade Resources Division, Department of State

Vice President, ALUMET

CHAPTER 111

The nature of the questions varied greatly.

Some recurred frequently; commonly, these

concerned commodity reserves, current distribution, current prices, consumption, and the

levels of stockpiles. A few respondents indicated that occasionally they are asked to provide specific materials plans, for example, a

contingency plan for materials allocation or rationing.

Only a few respondents indicated that they

had formalized information systems which

they could use to assess policy questions.

Some, as in the Bureau of Mines, could call on

sophisticated, partially automated systems

that were in development. Though it was too

early to judge their overall performance, it was

already clear that they would likely have some

serious limitations, particularly with respect to

inadequate data on foreign resources, reserves,

production, and consumption. Most respondents indicated that their “systems” were based

on commodity experts, who attempted to keep

current on all developments in their fields by

relying on serial publications of their own and

other departments and contacts with industry

sources.

About half the respondents, generally those

who had need to exchange information outside their own agencies, felt that lateral

transfer was inadequate. Sometimes the flow

was restricted because, as one respondent said,

“people do not want the information used

against them. ” Often, one agency is reluctant

or unable to devote the time and effort required to answer a query from another. A majority of respondents, including those that had

no quarrels with lateral transfer, were dissatisfied with the effectiveness of vertical

transfer of information, The general opinion

was that they received too much rather than

too little information. Too much information

was being sent forward without summarization or analysis. One executive said. “It takes

time and effort and understanding to summarize. It is much easier to send up the complete

report rather than extract the information

necessary to answer the particular question.

Moreover, it’s safer. As a result, I’m swamped

61
CHAPTER 111

with reports when what I want is simple

answers.

More than half the respondents felt that improved, systems-oriented information systems

would enable them to formulate bette r

materials policy. However several, mostly in

industry, were troubled by the problems such

a system might pose and did not endorse it. Of

particular concern were questions on the privacy of information and the possibility that the

system might lead to “undue” Government interference in the free market.

Most of the materials executives offered

opinons on the functional requirements that

ought to be included in an improved system, if

it were implemented, These views are summarized in table 111-6,

2. Aluminum Specialists

The second step in the interview process

covered 59 materials specialists in industry,

academic institutions, and Government, In

contrast with the senior executives surveyed

in the first step, most of these respondents had

more pragmatic, day-to-day management

responsibilities. To bring greater focus to this

survey, a single material (aluminum) was

selected, and respondents were chosen for

their familiarity with the aluminum materials

cycle and the strengths, weaknesses, and

needs of the information systems that support

aluminum decision making,

Aluminum was chosen as the representative “test” material for several reasons. First, it

is a major domestic commodity, accounting in

1972 for approximately $1.4 billion worth of

primary aluminum products. Second, it displays complex dependencies on foreign

sources: 90 percent of the ore (bauxite) is imported: also shortage-inducing actions of exporters, akin to those of OPEC, are of concern.

(The International Bauxite Association was

formed in 1974, ) These conditions have

resulted in a national awareness of aluminum

shortages, As indicated by a 1974 survey conducted by the Senate Committee on GovernTable Ill-6_lmportance of Functional

Objectives as Viewed by Materials

Executives—

Number of Reaponses (of 25)

Functional Great Substantial Negligible

Requirements Value Value Value

Supply

Resources inventory 13 8 2

Reserves inventory 15 7 1

Resources/reserves prediction 7 0 0

Industrial stocks 5 0 0

Strategic stockpile 15 6 2

Economic stockpiles 5 0 0

Rate of imports monitoring 15 6 2

Recycling/potential rate of

recycling 15 6 3

Overall supply forecast 8 2 0

Supply/demand monitoring 16 0 0

Utilization

Rate of productionmlning 14 7 3

Rate of production—

extraction 14 6 4

Rate/level of productionfabrication 14 6 3

Rate of exports monitoring 15 7 2

Indirect

Overall supply Vs demand

analysis capability 16 1 0

Price forecasting 7 0 0

Research end development

monitoring o 1 0

Residuals (pollutant)

production 15 6 2

Land management- 2 0 multiple use o

ment Operations, nearly 30 percent of the respondents foresaw or were concerned with

aluminum shortages, Unlike some materials

for which the economy is totally dependent on

foreign supplies, the United States has some

domestic supplies of bauxite. Moreover, there

are also supplies of alunite, anorthosite,

dousinite, and kolonite which could be exploited in place of bauxite.

Aluminum also illustrates the range of options and interrelationships that derive from

substitution of one material for another. Thus.

copper can be substituted for aluminum in

many applications, It is already so used in the

electrical industry, But, illustrative of the complex interactions at work, this trend could be

reversed as a result of increasing energy costs.

Other aspects of aluminum that recommended

it for the study are its use in Government

62
stockpiles, and the fact that the industry includes an active recycling element.

While the aluminum cycle appears to encompass a large number of the issues of concern with materials generally. it is recognized

that no single example is fully representative;

follow-on study efforts would well consider

additional detailed examples,

In the aluminum survey. respondents were

asked about their use of existing materials information systems, the need they saw for an

improved system, and the kinds of functions

that should be included within such a system.

As with the senior executive interviews, these

interviews were conducted informally, often

by telephone: a written questionnaire was

used to set the general direction. but respondents were encouraged to volunteer opinions

and percept ions, Table III-7 1ists the affiliation

of the respondents, and the areas of emphasis

in the interviews: it also summarizes the major

characteristics of their materials information

systems.

In the public sector of the aluminum community, these information systems are primarily concerned with supply and demand

statistics: in the private sector, with technical

information. The larger industrial firms have

developed in-house information systems

covering those aspects of the aluminum cycle

of special relevance to their operations. Some,

with sophisticated statistical and analytical

capabilities. are used to develop economic

forecasts. The smaller firms tend to rely on

data obtained from the Federal Government

and trade associations and do not have subs t a n tia1 in-house a n a 1 y t i a1 ca pab i1 i t ies.

Several respondents noted that often Government data-base managers were not sufficiently

aware of how private industry used their

reports. A need exists for users to have more

input in formulating the content and format of

published reports.

The survey indicated that while some

systems were automated, most were manual

and in almost all cases the respondents relied

on primary and secondary 1iterature and on

CHAPTER I II

person-to-person exchanges rather than on

automated systems. In almost all cases.

analysis and interpretation of data bases were

performed manually. Several respondents

noted that an arrangement of candid, sometimes unofficial, exchanges of information between industry representatives and their

counterparts in Government has evolved over

many years. They recommended that expansion of the present materials information

system should take pains to avoid interrupting

these valuable information channels.

The survey found it difficult to assess the

quality of the aluminum information systems,

There was little agreement on how to rate the

systems; few respondents were in a position to

assign meaningful quantitative measures, In

an attempt to obtain a degree of uniformity in

the appraisals, respondents were asked to consider how well their systems could provide

answers to the series of very specific representative test questions listed in table 111-8, Using

these as a frame of reference, the survey inquired about the completeness of aluminum

data bases and their accuracy, Table III-9 summarizes the coverage of data bases as reported

by respondents, The most comprehensive

bases (covering the complete aluminum cycle)

are maintained by the larger industrial firms.

The most automated bases pertain to resources

and reserves data. Considering the importance

of foreign activities in the aluminum cycle, the

incompleteness of foreign data is striking.

An appraisal of the accuracy of representative aluminum data bases was obtained from a

subset of respondents, all in the public and

academic sectors: the results are shown in table 111-10. On the whole, accuracy appears to

be high. However, the techniques used to

verify the survey are primitive and the estimates are thus only “best guesses. ” Also, as indicated by industrial respondents, errors as

small as 5 percent or less can be important.

On the question of the need for a significantly improved information system, 52 percent of the respondents felt that such a system

was required, 14 percent saw it as unnecessary

63
Industry

Alumax

Alumimum

Aluminum Co. of

Anaconda Casting

company

Coors Inc..

Earth Sciences

Fairfield Aluminum

Foote Mineral Co.

Forest City

Foundries

General Extrusion

Howmet corporation

Kagan - Dixon Wire

Company

Kaiser Aluminum &

ChemicalCorp.

Norandex Inc

Revere Brass and

copper

Reynolds

S-G Metals smelting

& Refining Co.

Emphasis

Interview

Complete aluminum

Cycle

Complete aluminum

Cycle

Complete aluminum

cycle

Complete aluminum

Cycle

Recycling, aluminum

Cycle

R&D

Complete aluminum

cycle

Complete aluminum

cycle

Complete aluminum

cycle

Manufacturing

Manufacturing

Manufacturing

Aluminum cycle

Aluminum cycle

Aluminum Cycle

Type/Contents

Conventional reference files

Manual statistical

Recycling statistics;Manual

reference flies

Manual

Manual

Manaul

Manual statistical system

Manual reference files

Automated; worldwide data

Manual Industry files; automated company filesManual statisatical system

Automated; worldwide data

Major Data

AIcoa, DOI, DOC,

Aluminum Assoc.

Aliminum Assoc.

Trade association

Trade association

Trade association

Aluminum Assoc., DOI,

Kaiser, DOI, DOC,

Aluminum Assoc,.

Foreign Sources

Trade association

Aluminum Assoc., DOl.

Reynolds, Dot, DOC,

Aluminum Assoc.,

foreign-sources

Trade association

Acceasibility

Non e

statistical and econo

metric models

Statistical, econometric

models for forecasting

and requirements
CHAPTER 111

I

I

65

80-1,78 () - 77 - 6
CHAPTER 111
CHAPTER 111

67

CHAPTER III

Table III-8_Representative Test Questions

Resources:

Reserves:

(Primary Ore)

Reserve

(Substitute Ore)

Mining-Production:

Refining:

Production-Capacity:

Fabricated Products:

Consumer Products:

Value:

End Products:

Manpower:

Capacity:

Service Life:

Material Selection:

Toxicity:

Environment:

Energy:

R&D:

Recycling:

Recycling:

Transportation:

What are the national resources of bauxite (the primary ore of aluminum) or alunite,

kaolin, anorthosite (substtute ores for bauxite)?

What are the reserves of bauxite in Jamica (in Arkansas) vs. price?

What are the reserves of kaolin in Georgia (alunite in Utah) vs. price?

Where are bauxite mining operations Iocated and how much do they produce? How

much bauxite is produced in the United States by Company and by state?

How much alumina is refined by state and by what processes?

How much aluminum is produced in the United States and by what companies? What

capacity do the producing companies have? By state?

How much of a particular fabricated product is produced by a given company or within

a region? (Fabricated product here means castings, plate, sheet, rod, extrusions)

. 

What consumer products are manufactured by type?

What is the value added at each (or any) stage of the aluminum cycle?

What is the aluminum content of consumer end products?

What is the complement of personnel for various plants? 

Is data available concerning plant capacity versus dollar investment and time to construct ?

What is the service life of various consumer products?

For aluminum with given physical, mechanical, or chemical properties, what are the

alternative metals?

What are the toxic properties of any aluminum alloy?

What quantities of residuals are produced in aluminum process (e.g., red mud from

refining ?

How much energy is consumed at each (or- any) stage of the cycle? How much energy

is used to produce the giver! fabricated product [eg., casting, plate, or extrusions)?

What aluminum-related R&D activities are in progress for each (or any) part of the

aluminum cycle?

HOW much of the aluminum produced by a given company or within a given geographic

area is from recycled material?

How much new scrap is produced by state ?

What is the availability of railroad transportationto a plant, deposit, etc.?

.

and/or undesirable. and 34 percent were un - Almost all respondents were mindful of and

decided as shown in table 111-11. Respondents

in the Federal sector showed the highest

percentage favoring such a system, followed

by respondents in academic institutions. More

than two-thirds of the State government respondents were undecided; however, their

principal concern was that the costs to implement and operate the system might exceed

their available resources. Respondents from

the business community were most equivocal:

35 percent saw no need and another 18 percent

were undecided.

concerned about the possibility that an improved materials information system might be

misused to “manage” the American market

system. They were similarly concerned about

providing sensitive data to an overall open

system.

Table III-12 summarizes the important functions of an improved system that were identified by the different categories of respondents. The most commonly stressed functions directly related to improving supply and

69
CHAPTER III
CHAPTER III

Table Ill-10.—Accuracy of Aluminum Data

Bases

Category

Resources

Alunite and

Aluminum-bearing clays

Kaolin

Reserves

Mining

Refining

Smelting

Fabrication

Manufacturing

Consumption

Recovery

Stockpile

Import–Export

Worldwide

Production

& Trade

Energy

Estimated

Accuracy

(Ye)

50

60

Uncertain

90

90

90

9 5 +

9 5 +

9 5 +

9 5 +

9 5 +

9 5 +

9 5 +

80

80

Source of

Estimate

DOI–USGS

Georgia

Inst. of

Technology

DOI–BOM

State of

Georgia

DOI–BOM

DOI-BOM

DOC

DOC

DOC

DOC

DOC

GSA

DOC

DOI–BOM

Battelle

(for BOM)

demand projections. Like the senior level ex- the comparative level of their concern, vis-a -

ecutives interviewed, they also saw the need v is those expressed by the senior executives.

for the indirect functions. Table 111-13 shows

E. FOREIGN MATERIALS INFORMATION SYSTEMS

An indication of the status of several

foreign government materials information

systems was obtained through limited discussions with system designers and planners in

Canada, Japan, France, the Organisation for

Economic Cooperation and Development. and

the International Institute for Applied Systems

Analysis. As in the United States. most of the

foreign systems are oriented toward development of comprehensive data bases on

materials properties and provision of 1ibrary -

type abstracting and searching services, rather

than toward support of such policy issues as

shortages.

One of the most comprehensive systems is

that operated by the Centre for Geoscience

Data in the Canadian Department of Energy,

Mines and Resources. The Centre is the focal

point for inquiries and cooperation among

71
CHAPTER 111

industry

Universities,

not-for-profit

State government

7

I[

4

7

3

government, universities, and industry, It

maintains an index of reports, maps, and data

files which it publishes annually. It also attempts to monitor research and development.

It has taken the lead in developing standards

for reporting geoscience data on mineral and

fuel deposits, In its current configuration, index entries are performed online through computer terminals which are located throughout

the country. Future plans look to full online

interactive access, for input and output. In addition, consideration is being given to expanding the coverage of mineral and fuel types.

In Japan, the country’s heavy reliance on

foreign raw materials has spurred development of materials analysis techniques. The

principal agency responsible for monitoring

industrial activities, forecasting industrial outlook, and developing industrial development

plans is the Ministry of International Trade

and Industry (MITI). Because of the traditionally high level of industry/government

cooperation, MITI is able to acquire inventory

and production statistics that are considered to

be highly reliable, MITI is actively developing

econometric models for interrelating production factors and making forecasts; however, it

appears that much of this work is still in the

experimental stage.

With regard to scientific and technical information, the Japan Information Center of

Science and Technology acts as the central

organization. The Center carries out collection, regulation, and dissemination of information. It selects important articles, records and

classifies them, associates key words, and

generates secondary information, The Center

also acts as a channel for the exchange of

scientific and technical information with other

countries. To improve these operations in the

face of growing volume, diversity, and demand for information, the Science and Technology Council has developed an approach for

a new system called NIST, the National Information System of Scientific and Technical Information, NIST will systematically integrate

various existing information collecting

organizations into a nationwide network. Increasing emphasis will be placed on participation in international information exchange activities. As currently envisioned, NIST would

comprise a central coordination function for

the efficient operation of the system as a

whole; a processing function to carry out

specialized data collection and data processing; and a service function to handle contacts

with users, i.e., receive various inputs and furnish information. The processing function, in

72
CHAPTER 111

73
CHAPTER III

NOteS:

Critical — functional objective must be addressed in improved system.

Serious – functional objective deserves strong consideration as an important part of an improved system.

Moderate — concern expressed by only a few respondents; deserves attention as functional objective after

critical to serious functional objectives are addressed.

particular, would require high-level data processing methods using computers for collection,

regulation, analysis, evaluation. and forecasting. The NIST plan is still under study by the

Government.

In France, scientific information related to

materials, particularly geological information,

is collected, organized, and entered in a semiautomatic information system. In addition,

much other technical information concerning

materials (e.g., the engineering properties of

materials, or data derived from original data in

the data base) is already maintained in data

banks. Data banks in some 50 technical centers

are very detailed as far as engineering properties are concerned. The most complete is that

developed for the building industry; it is fully

automated and provides information on all the

materials used in the building industry. As in

Japan. because of the close relationship between industry and the Government, data for

these data banks are easily obtained and is

considered to be very reliable, Although much

material based on this data is published, full

74

access is restricted to individuals and

organizations within the Government.

The Canadian, Japanese, and French representatives all expressed interest in an improved information system to address

materials-related issues and expressed the

view that such a system would fill important

international and national needs. Its international aspect was echoed in the discussions

held with the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and the

International Institute for Applied Systems

Analysis (IIASA). OECD representatives

stressed the need to orient any improved

system to user requirements, Because of the

difficult technical problems in effectively

coupling supply and demand data, they

stressed that the information system concept

should be limited in what it addressed, particularly in its early form. Further, they

emphasized the need in fashioning such a

system to build it top-down, demand-driven.

Otherwise, those affected would be likely to

maintain that change was unnecessary, un -
CHAPTER III

desirable, or impossible and would resist all

innovation or modification. Currently. OECD

collects materials data from many countries.

catalogs it, and provides information and data

(even copies of tapes) to countries requesting

it. From time to time it has undertaken original

studies relating to materials management (e. g..

Implications For industry of Changes in the

Availablitity of Energy and Raw Materials and

Their Prices, DSTI/IND/75-04 OECD).

The IIASA representative indicated that the

international organization had need for a

materials information system of the kind discussed, but that at present lacked funds for

such a development. IIASA is planning to

develop a model of world energy supply, demand, and use. IIASA considers that standardization of data as a means of interrelating relevant data held in diverse data banks ought to

be a principal objective.

F. IMPROVED FUNCTIONAL REQUIREMENTS

Based on the composite findings of the

literature review, the analysis of the interviews and, to a lesser extent on foreign contacts. a set of functional requirements that

should be satisfied in an improved materials

information capability was developed. Many

of the functions were cited in these sources:

others were newly identified. The set covered

three kinds of factors: those that directly affect

supply: those that directly affect utilization:

and those that indirectly affect both.

1. Functional Requirements-Supply

These include:

● Ability to monitor and project inventories

of resources.—Resources are the concentrations of natura11y occurring

material deposits in or on the earth’s

crust. The principal data elements are the

quantity of materials existing in specific

deposits, their locations, grade of the ore,

and site characteristics (overburden,

deposit area. and thickness).

● Ability to monitor and project inventoric.s

of reserves.-Reserves are those portions

of the identified resources from which

usable minerals and energy commodities

can be economically and legally extracted

at the time of the determination, Specific

materials resources are classified as

reserves if they are economically com -

petitive with other materials in the

●

●

marketplace. A controlling factor in

determining reserves is the cost of extraction. Thus. a technological breakthrough

that substantially reduces the extraction

costs of an ore hitherto not considered

economically minable could drastically

change the quantity of reserves. Accordingly, the principal data elements of concern are those related to quantity and extract ion costs, i.e., basic reserves information for each material must be provided in

terms of the current estimate of reserves

at specified costs of extraction.

Ability to monitor and project industrial

stocks.-Stocks cover material in process

and stored for normal future use, including both raw and finished products. Data

elements are concerned with the quantities, types, and locations of inventories.

Ability to monitor and project inventories

o f strategic stock p i 1es .—S t oc k p i 1 i ng

refers to the diversion (from any part of

the materials cycle) and temporary

storage of materials to maintain a supply

that can be used to avert critical shortages

caused by natural or man-made supply

interruptions. In accordance with legislation, a strategic stockpile has been maintained by the General Services Administration to maintain sufficient supplies of materials that affect national

defense. The data elements required for

strategic stockpiles are the quantity of

materials, their nature (ore, semifinished,

75
CHAPTER III

finished), and the rates at which they approach or depart from their objective

levels.

. Ability to monitor and project inventories

of economic stockpiles.-In contrast with

strategic stockpiles, economic stockpiles

seek to effect better materials distribution

for peacetime public purposes. Although

none has yet been implemented, the concept is under consideration. The data elements are similar to those of strategic

stockpiles; however, since their effectiveness and operation are more intimately

tied to price variations, they need to be

monitored more frequently.

● Ability to monitor and project levels of

imports.— Understanding the changing

patterns of imports is clearly important to

private and public materials managers.

The key data elements are quantity of

materials imported, their nature (ore,

semifinished, finished), and rate of importation.

● Ability to monitor and project the level of

recycled material s.—Material that is

recovered (and recoverable) from discarded products is becoming increasingly

important as a source of supply. Recovery

occurs in many phases of the materials

cycle. Runaround scrap is the intraplant

recycling of scrap material in fabricating

plants. New scrap is that materia l

recycled to fabricating plants from

manufacturing operations. This material

is generally clean and can be readily used

by primary mills; old (or dirty) scrap is

that material recovered from used end

products. The data elements necessary to

monitory recovery include the product

descriptor (item, material, the location of

the scrap, by district and site), its quantity, and data on recovery costs.

Potentially recoverable materials refers

to that materials for which technology exists for separating specified materials

from used end products, but for which

costs preclude practical recovery at this

●

time. Irrecoverable material is that

material in end products for which a

recovery technology does not exist. To

determine the recycling potential of

materials in current use and to analyze

the impacts resulting from changes in

recovery patterns, the required data elements are the recovery capability of

materials by end product, by industry,

and by geographical region.

Ability to forecast total supply.—Total

supply is the aggregate of materials in

reserves, materials in stockpiles,

materials being imported, and materials

recovered after use. The reserves provide

an indication of long-term supplies; imported and recovered materials together

with stockpiled materials constitute

short-term supplies. The ability to combine current and forecasted levels to

achieve meaningful estimates of total

supply depends on developing consistent

units of measurement, taking into account possible temporal differences

among them.

2. Functional Requirements-Utilization

These include:

. Ability to monitor levels of materials

being produced and producible.—Production is the process of converting natural

deposits into marketable products, i.e,,

transforming primary ores to intermediate products to manufacturing of end

products. Production capacity refers to

the amount of materials that could be

produced at each production step if the

Nation’s plants were fully utilized.

Knowledge of available production

capacity is needed to assess the ability of

domestic production facilities to expand

as needed.

The required data elements vary with

each stage of the materials cycle. For

mining, for example, they cover location

(to site level), characteristics of the prod76
ucts and byproducts, quantity of each

product and byproduct, supplies used

(energy and materials), resources needed

to build. maintain, and operate the plant,

and related economic data, For manufacturing, they cover the materials in end

products, location (special districts and

site level), capacity, quantity and types of

byproducts, supplies used (energy and

mate r i a 1s ), resources required, a n d

economic data,

● Ability to monitor levels of materials consumed in end products.-This refers to

the rate of consumption of materials

delivered to consumers. Of prospective

concern is the amount of a specific

material contained in each product, the

product service life, and the manner in

which the material is incorporated in the

product. Although few such statistics are

now available, they could be important

for efficient recycling and product disposal. Data elements for the consumption

component are the product (market

category, Standard Industrial Classifica -

tion, and item), location by special districts and site, and the quantity produced.

● Ability to monitor levels of exports. -As

with imports. understanding patterns in

materials exports is clearly important.

The rate of exports reflects the ability of

domestic firms to compete with other nations. Increasing exports of critical

materials (as materials or products) is of

concern to materials managers because of

the possibility of domestic shortages

and/or increased domestic prices. With

effective monitoring and forecasting.

suitable actions might be taken to minimize these potential impacts. The data

elements needed for monitoring exports

are similar to those for imports.

● Ability to forecast total demand-This

refers to the ability to project total demand, aggregating future domestic requirements, and export opportunities.

Although inherently difficult (the Paley

CHAPTER III

Commission projections are a case in

point), this capability is essential for

anticipating potential shortage situations.

3. Functional Requirements-Supply/

Utilization

The initial set of prospectively useful functions also called out a series of other

capabilities having to do with interrelateing

price effects and several other factors. These

include:

●

●

Ability to merge separate supply a n d

utilization information to forecast the im -

pact of price on supply and demand.-

Changes in the market price of a product

clearly can change the supply available

and the demand for it. In the past i t was

generally assumed that supplies of

materials for products in demand would

become available with suitable price increases. Recent events have shown that

this may not hold under conditions of

scarcity. Each material has a unique supply and demand price elasticity. whose

range depends on a complex array of factors. Observing and recording changes in

supplies, demands, and prices of critical

materials could aid in developing improved methods for quantifying their

relationships.

Monitoring research and development

programs. -This capability refers to improving the availability y of information on

current materials research and development and maintaining data on new technology w h i c h m i g h t i m p a c t t h e

availability of critical materials, A 1 ink

between knowledge of the broad range of

existing R&D programs and awareness of

materials problems is essentia1 t o

materials management policy; often new

R&D programs must be implemented and

other programs redirected. A better information mechanism might increase the

effectiveness of Government R&D

programs by ensuring that they address

critical materials problems, Data elements

77
for monitoring materials R&D activities

include a registry of experts in materials

science and engineering and the status of

materials research programs.

● A i d i n g i n s e l ec t i o n o f s u bstitute

materials.-This refers to the complex

process by which users of materials select

one material over another and modify

their choices as a material comes into

short supply. Materials policy planners,

as well as engineers and producers, need

to understand the options available for

substitution. The process is fundamentally dependent on the availability of information,

. Monitoring environmental impact and

energy use.—This capability refers to

analyzing the consequences of imple -

menting environ mental protection

programs, including the use, elimination,

and replacement of specific materials,

and to the analysis of the energy consumed by processes in the stages of the

material cycle. Data elements for environmental monitoring include pollutant

●

●

●

by type, amount per unit production, and

media for disposal; for energy use, they

include energy consumption by manufacturing process per unit production and by

end product when used by the consumer,

Monitoring availability of investment

capita l.—As demonstrated by Cooper’s

analysis of the Paley Commission projections, the availability of investment

capital is a fundamental variable in projecting future suppliers. Information elements on the relevant variables might be

assembled which would enable analysts

to get a better handle on this factor,

Monitoring and projecting availability of

transportation. —Transportation capabilities significantly affect materials supplies. Information on current and future

capabilities are required.

Monitoring and projecting availability of

manpower.—Availability of a trained

labor force can have direct bearing on

materials policy options. Information on

current and projected levels are needed.

G. INTEGRATION OF FUNCTIONAL REQUIREMENTS

Perhaps the most important finding of the

literature review and the interviews was that

materials decision makers need to interrelate

more effectively the various elements of data

available to them. They require an information system structure that displays the interaction of the many factors determining materials

flow through the cycle, even more important

than obtaining more complete data. In effect,

the improved capabilities needs to be

organized to illuminate the dynamic flow of

material through the materials cycle. Such an

organization could indicate the availability of

a material at each stage in the materials cycle,

By examining the flow pattern, i.e., by having

information and analysis of conditions at each

stage in the cycle, the Federal policy maker

could determine the severity of a problem and,

if it were sufficiently serious, how it might be

averted or relieved and at what cost.

78

These operational characteristics are akin to

those that occur in many physical control

systems, In an electrical distribution system,

for example, input disturbances (perhaps a

sudden increase in demand caused by a summer heat spell) are continuously monitored

and compared with system capacity. The

difference is used to signal or trigger corrective

actions, such as putting another generator

online or drawing additional energy from

another power pool. In dealing with dynamic,

physical problems, one must first characterize

the control system i.e., describe how the individual elements within the system affect

each other, For example, how do weather conditions affect demand, or how does capacity

vary with the number of generators online,

These interrelationships are the so-called subsystem transfer functions, The control system

is normally represented in the form of a func -
CHAPTER 111

tional block diagram in which the blocks

depict, in mathematically precise form, the action of each element in the physical system.

The dynamics of material flow and the control options for dealing with disturbances to

normal flow are more complex than for most

physical systems. Monitoring all the relevant

variables is clearly more difficult, as is defining the various interrelationships in precise,

mathematical form. Yet the principle is essentially the same, and the block diagram concept

is useful for describing the way the individual

functions can be usefully organized,

Figure III-4 is illustrative, The individual

blocks in the diagram depict information requirements at each stage in the materials cycle

and correspond to the functional requirements

described earlier. The arrangement of the

blocks and the way they affect each other

simulate the overall behavior of the materials

system. The level of detail required in such a

functional block diagram depends on its intended use. For providing aid to Government

policymaking, the data can be aggregated to a

high level and the number of functional blocks

and interrelationships can be kept to a

relatively small number.

The simplified diagram describes the flow

of a single material; in actual practice, it would

comprise a similar set of interconnected functions for each critical material to be covered.

The block diagram may be viewed as another

way of depicting the flow of materials through

the materials cycle: it simply superimposes on

the physical flow of material the flow of the

information that directs it.

The blocks are of three kinds: those that

depict considerations affecting supply; those

that depict utilization considerations; and

those that treat their interrelationships.

1. Supply Considerations

The first supply considerations shown in

figure III-4 are the functional capabilities for

monitoring and projecting levels of resources

and reserves, As an improved set of in formation capabilities might be organized, this information might be collected and held in multiple, compatible data bases, As with other data

bases implicit in this kind of framework, it is

not required that all of this information be

held in one place, only that it be so organized,

standardized, and aggregated that all of it can

be accessed when needed by authorized users.

The framework also shows the capability to

determine levels of materials made available

through production processes, This function

accounts for the levels of materials processed

from reserves; these, in turn, depend on the

level of plant capacity employed and other factors.

Other supply considerate ions, shown in

figure III-4 include the capability 

to monitor

and project levels of normal industrial stocks

and any strategic and economic stockpiles

maintained by the Government, This information would be stored in appropriate standardized data bases. Similarly, the framework

would monitor imports and incorporate techniques for projecting future foreign supplies.

Such unpredictable perturbations as embargos

might be handled by building in blocks corresponding to different sets of contingency

scenarios. The framework would also monitor

and project levels of materials that become

available through recycling. All of these contributions to supply would be appropriately

summed. The organization would thus continuously monitor and project total materials

availability y.

Two functionally different kinds of supply

blocks are shown in figure 111-4. The rectangles show the levels of supplies in their

various forms, for example “resources”. The

rounded rectangles represent transfer functions which depict the dependency of one element on another. Thus, the box marked

“Reserves = f (Price. . .)” indicates that

resources become reserves through the pricing

mechanism: as prices increase, subeconomic

resource become economic to mine and thus

add to reserve levels.

79
CHAPTER III

I

Figure III-4 .—Basic Framework for Interrelating Elements of

Materials Information

Resources

t

I Demand

I

I

v

Environmental

Impacts

80
2. Utilization Considerations

Figure III-4 also incorporates the capability

to project the demand for a critical material. In

general the demand is a function of the price

of the material and a host of other factors, including the level of general economic activity.

The demand for a material. covering both its

domestic and export components. determines

the productive capacity to bring that supply

into being. The project ion transfer function

merges information on alL phases of activity

involved in transforming ores into useful products. Examples of information associated

with the product ion function include (1) the

quantity of the primary material at each stage

of production: (2) other materials used or produced (including waste products and by-products): (3) employment; (4) existing plant

capacity: (5) lead time and cost for construction of new capacity; (6) transportation requirements: and (7) energy requirements.

The output of the production function are

products, i.ej

, the end-use item(s) designed to

fill specific consumer needs. By organizing information monitoring and projecting the consumpt ion patterns of a product, such as the

useful 1ife and recyclable material content, the

in formational framework is able to monitor

and predict the available amount o f recycled

material. As indicated in figure III-4, recoverable material also flows in forms of scrap from

wastes generated in the production process.

On the negative side. waste disposal is conceptually depicted as presenting environmental

impacts which, in turn, affect the production

function, price, and ultimately demand.

3. Supply/Utilization Interrelationship

and Management Actions

Also depicted in figure III-4 is the principal

control act ion of the market system, the pricing mechanism. The framework compares

material supplies with demand and adjusts

price accordingly, feeding back the price incremen t to each block having a price sensitivity.

Under normal conditions the pricing mechanism works to maintain a continuous flow of

CHAPTER 111

material through the cycle. However, if it does

not, policy makers in the Government must

decide whether or not action in the public interest is required. The improved functions and

organizational framework would support this

decisionmaking process by assessing the impacts of alternative policy options upon the

flow of materials through the economic

system.

Before using these improved capabilities,

careful distinction should be made between

three separate, though sequentially dependent, steps in the overall decisionmaking process: (1) data gathering and analysis, (2) policy

analysis, and (3) policymaking. The improved

capabilities might provide the capabilities to

achieve the first two steps, but it would in no

way attempt to achieve the third. Policy decisions would in all cases be the responsibility of

the policy maker. The integrated framework

would merely support his decisions. first. by

collecting and analyzing data, and second, by

using the data and analysis capability to address “what if” types of questions.

In depicting the internal control behavior of

the market, as shown in figure 111-4, the framework would itself be an extremely useful

analytical tool. However. its real value is its

capability to provide information and analysis

for policy makers to use in assessing the effectiveness of policy options the Government

might take to relieve serious d islocations, Two

examples of Government policy actions are

shown in figure 111-5, One relates to Govern -

ment stockpiles: the other. to the use of export

controls as a means of addressing materials

shortages,

In assessing whether a stockpile polic y

could avert or alleviate a shortage, Government policy makers could use the integrated

capabilities —the individual functions and

their organization along the lines of the framework—to test its effectiveness. The framework, in effect, provides the means for

simulating its rippling effects on the materials

system, By examining the benefits and costs of

the stockpile policy, and by comparing this in80-678 [) - 77 - 7
CHAPTER 111

Figure III-5.—Basic Informational Framework

Showing Selected Policy Actions

SUPPLY CONSIDERATIONS

POLIC Y

UTILIZATION CONSIDERATIONS

H

ANALYSIS

m

t

●

Demand

I Impacts 1

o
formation with similar analyses of other relevan t policy options, the Goverment decision -

maker could determine what policy, if any,

might be required to solve the material

problem. The analysis might well indicate that

no Government action is required, and that the

market system will self-correct.

The same kind of “testing” can be used for

assessing Government actions with regard to

export controls. also shown in figure III-5. Export embargos, an extreme form of export control, were implemented in the 1972–74 period,

but for only short periods. They were hastily

applied and hastily lifted, in part because their

impacts, both positive and negative. on the

materials flow pattern were imperfectly anticipated, By organizing all the relevant data and

showing the interrelationships and feedback

effects. the improved in formationa l

capabilities could present a fuller picture of

the impacts of such actions. The framework

might enable more effective use of export controls; or it might show that the anticipated consequences are such that Government action is

unnecessary.

In general. the need for any kind of Government action arises whenever an unacceptable

condition occurs or is projected to occur in the

material flow pattern. As envisioned in this

framework, this condition will be signalled

when a computed index of scarcity exceeds a

prescribed level. The index of scarcity, as

shown in figure 111-5, could take many forms.

It might be a price threshold: if the projected

price change is too high, for example, remedial

act ion might be required. Another measure,

particularly useful for long-range materials

policy analysis, might be the “time-to-exhaustion” of the materials, In practice, a set of

different, unique indices (trigger points)

would be adopted for each critical material,

reflecting the existing pattern of flow and the

potential disturbances that might interrupt

that pattern.

Indicative of the more complex forms of

policy analyses to which the improved

capab i 1 i t ies might be applied, figure III-6

CHAPTER 111

shows how it might be conceptually structured

to assist policy makers in analyzing the potential of material substitution to relieve shortage

conditions. The key points of initial impact in

the materials cycle are the material availability y

and production functions. As shown in figure

III–6, materials A–E represent the candidates

for substitution. The framework could evaluate their impacts on other materials (F–I)

utilizing the demand function as the transfer

mechanism. The system would show changes

in demand for each material (F–I) caused by

each candidate substitute material (A–E): it

would then evaluate the changes throughout

the other materials cycles (F–I). This kind of

information would enable the substitution

analyst to determine which candidate material

has the greatest potential for relieving the

shortage. Of course, a host of factors not explicitly shown in the figure also affect the

analysis and need to be factored in. e.g., the

environ mental impact of each substitute

would have to be evaluated. Other substitution

considerations are discussed in appendix A,

4. Evolution of Capabilities

It is important to recognize that it is not

necessary to incorporate all of the individual

functional requirements discussed in section F

into the conceptual framework at one time.

Rather, the framework could evolve, first incorporating the level functions and transfer

functions that are best understood, and later

adding other functions whose developments

will take more time to perfect.

Considering (1) their relative importance in

depicting materials flow, and (2) the state-ofthe-art for obtaining the relevant data and

defining the associated transfer functions, the

assessment suggests that the following basic

functional capabilities ought to be initially 

implemented:

. Monitor and project resource inventories,

● Monitor and project reserves inventories,

. Monitor and project industrial stocks,
CHAPTER III

Figure ill-6.-Basic Informational Framework Applied to Materials Substitution

SUPPLY

CONSIDERATIONS

UTILIZATION

CONSIDERATIONS

Y

f ● 1

)

Transfer functions (e g., actions that depict dependencies among elements)

o

Controlling functions (e.g., actions designed to correct undesirable conditions)

84
CHAPTER III

●

b

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

Monitor and project stockpiles (strategic

and economic),

Monitor and project imports,

Monitor and project recycled materials.

Forecast total supply,

Monitor and project materials produced

and production capacity,

Monitor and project material consumed

in end products,

Monitor and project exports,

Forecast total demand, and

Forecast price impact on supply and demand.

If implemented within the integrated framework described here, these functions could

provide substantial capability to assist

policy makers in addressing such questions as:

● Will a shortage in a particular critical

material occur, and when ?

● Where will the impact be felt most

severely ?

● How might affected industries act to ease

the resulting economic distortions?

● What other measures (conservation,

stockpiling, expanding productiv e

capacity) might be adopted?

The basic functions are all deemed to be implementable within the current state-of-theart. Acquiring all the necessary information

will present problems, but much of it appears

to be available, at least for certain materials, as

indicated in figures III–7 and III–8 covering

aluminum. (In this connection, it should be

noted that the assessment did not attempt to

select the specific materials that might be included within the conceptual framework. The

number of materials covered might be of the

order of 50. For comparison, the President’s

Council on International Economic Policy

identified 19 materials as critical. )

The set of functional capabilities that might

be added later to the basic set could enable

policy makers to address more complex

problems than would be possible with the

basic set. The supplemental set might provide.

for example. the capability for a more accurate

and comprehensive impact assessment of

policy alternatives. Thus, policy makers could

address regional analysis, worldwide materials

supply/use assessment. comprehensive intercommodity substitution analysis, and the implications of such operational considerations

as transportation requirements. availability y of

capital, and availability of trained manpower.

Also, policy makers using a supplemental set

of functional capabilities might be able to

assess the potential impacts and restraints of

national policies related to employment. protection of the environment, and conservation

of energy.

The assessment identified the following

functions which could be added to the basic

set:

●

●

●

Monitor and project foreign supply and

utilization. This function would supplement the basic functions that monitor and

project inventory of domestic

resources/reserves and imports/exports.

It would seek to acquire and utilize data

on foreign resources and reserves and on

trade between foreign countries to a

greater extent in the equilibrium

analyses.

Monitor and project environmental impact and energy use. This function would

acquire the necessary data on energy use

throughout the materials cycle and would

show the relationships and trade-offs

among production, price, environmental

impact, and conservation, among other

variables.

Project recycling potential. This function

would supplement the basic function

covering recycled material. Whereas the

basic function covers the established

recovery industry. this function accounts

for the potential of additional recovery

using advanced technologies not currently used. It also could be used to evaluate the effectiveness of incentives to encourage such advanced technologies.

85
CHAPTER III

Figure III-7.—Aluminum Information Sources for Supply Functions

Source

supply Information

Government Private

Resource

and Site

Characteristics

GS

DOA

Reserves

Classification

GS

BOM

Quantity Industry

of Reserves

GS

BOM

Quantity Mined

and Capacity

of Mining

BOM

7

Material

Available f

DOA

DOM

OMPD

Quantity of

Material Available

(Annual-Short

and Long Term) 1

r

—— — .

I

I Stockpile

●

BOM

GSA

Industry

Aluminum Assoc.

Aluminum Assoc.

Industry

Aluminum Assoc.

Aluminum Recycling

Assoc.

Inventory

of Stocks

Customs

Census

Quantity

Imported

Quantity of

Material from

Scrap

BOM

Recycled

Material

Recycling Industry

Process

1

86
CHAPTER 111

Figure III-8.—Aluminum Information Sources for Utilization Functions

Source

Information

Government Private UTILIZATION

State of U.S.

Economy (GNP,

and Sectors)

DOC (Sic)

DOC

FEA

EPA

Price Impact

on Demand

Demand

Aluminum Assoc.

Industry

Quantity of DOC (Short term)

Material Demand,

Annual

Mining Processes BOM Industry

Quantities Mixed

Aluminum Assoc.

Industry

Industry

Primary Material

Production and

Capacity

DIBA

Bur. of Census

I Products 1

Manufacturing

Processes,

Production and

Capacity

Bur. of Census

DIBA

Annual Quantity

of Material in

Each Product

DOC Industry

Material

Exported,

Annual

Bur. of Census Aluminum Assoc.

Industry

Useful Life Industry

of Products

Quantity of

Material In

Discarded

Products

Industry

~ Material Flo w

+- Information Flo w

87
CHAPTER 111

● Monitor research and development. This

function would factor research and

development information into the supply/utilization analysis, thereby improving its accuracy and realism. The tie-in

between the R&D information systems

and the economics-oriented system

would also be useful in indicating objectives for improved technology. Thus, if

the overall system indicated a materials

shortage in say, nickel, R&D opportunities and programs could be evaluated

in light of the seriousness of the threat.

Data on results of current research, along

with data on scientific manpower, such as

availability and current research interests, would also aid in the formulation

of R&D programs to address identified

problem areas, The extended function

might also provide a basis for better judging as to whether or not R&D could affect

a perceived shortage within a given lead

time.

. Determine substitutability. This function

would enable analysts to consider more

completely the effects of substitution of

one material for another, Anothe r

possibility is to combine this function

with an information system covering

physical and chemical materials properties to achieve a computer-assisted

materials selection system, This would

enable planners and users to evaluate the

merits of using one material in place of

another, taking into account economic

conditions as well as technical properties.

As detailed in appendix A, it appears that

much of the information needed for such

a system is identical with that needed for

a general purpose materials planning

system.

● Monitor availability of investment

capital, transportation, and trained labor.

These factors all impact long-range supply. Elaborating the basic system to incorporate their effects increases the overall

accuracy of solutions and would enable

policy makers to address more detailed

and more subtle aspects of materials flow.

H. SUMMARY

In establishing whether a need exists for significantly improved materials information

capabilities, objective quantitative criteria

are preferred. Unfortunately, this is not possible. Like other problems in the public policy

area, analysis of information systems is hampered by the absence of a recognized, theoretical framework covering the economic value of

information. In theory, to the extent that information provided by a materials information

system reduces uncertainty, it contributes to

more risk-free and, thus, more effective deci -

sionmaking. In practice, however, the decisionmaking process, even in a relatively

straightforward industrial situation, involves

so many other factors blurring the contribution

of the information element that attempts to

quantify the value of information are rarely

conclusive. They become even more clouded

88

when attempted in the Government policymaking area.

In the absence of purely objective standards,

this assessment drew on the experience of informed specialists, as expressed in reports of

materials study groups, congressional activities, and a series of interviews with

materials executives and managers. The overall conclusion to be drawn from this body of

experience is that current systems are not adequate and that new improved capabilities

would enable materials managers, particularly

in Government, to do a better job,

The assessment also pointed to two other

considerations. First, it emphasized the indispensable need to better interrelate the

various factors bearing on materials supply

and demand. Policy makers need to know
CHAPTER III

where relevant data exists. They need to be information systems that currently deal with

able to compare the data on a consistent basis, limited aspects of the overall materials

regardless of the data sources, and they need problem must be seen in perspective as subto be able to merge data from different data systems, and improvements to each must be

bases for comprehensive materials-flow undertaken within the context of a coordi -

analyses. Second, the study confirmed the nated, overall, plan.

view that to achieve the needed. improved The assessment developed a conceptual incapabilities, a systematic view of the materials formation framework that might serve as the

information problem is required. Individual basis for such improvements.

1. REFERENCES

1. Stigler. George J., “The Economics of Informat i on.” The Journal of Politica l

Ekmnomy, June 1961.

2. Hirs(;hleifer, Ja(;k. ‘*The Private and Social

Value of Information and the Reward to

Inventive Activity, ” American

Review, September 1971.

3. Stiglitz. J, E., In form(llion an d

A n a I ysis, Institute for Mat

Studies in the Social Sciences,

Report 155, January 1975,

4. President’s Materials Policy Cc

Economic

Economic

] e m a t i c a 1

Technical

mm ission,

Resources for Freedomf Summary o f

Volume 1, Report to the President,

Washington, D. C., June 1952.

5. Copper, Richard N., ‘*Resource Needs

Revisited, ” Brookings P(lpers on Economic

Activity 1, Washington, D. C.: The Brookings Institution, 1975.

6. National Commission on Materials Policy,

Materials Needs and (he Environrnen t 7’oday and ‘Tomorrow, stock no. 5203-00005,

Washington, D. C,: Government Printing

Office, June 1973.

7. Committee on the Survey of Materials

Science and Engineering, Materials and

Mon Needs, Washington, D. C.: National

Academy of Sciences, 1974,

8, Materials Advisory Board, Staff Study on

Dissemination of 7’ethnological ln~orma -

9.

10.

11,

12,

13.

tion Ahou t Materials and Ma tcrials

Research. Report MAB-S1 -SM. prepared

for the Depart men t o f D e fe ns e.

Washington, D. C.: National Academy of

Sciences, September 1, 1959.

Herring, Conyers, personal commun ica -

tions to J. H, Westbrook, June 3, 1974.

Materials Advisory Board, Nat ional

Research Council, Dissemination of ln~ormation on Ma teriols, Wash ington, D. C.:

National Academy of Sciences, 1964.

Christensen, W. C.. Director of Technical

Information, Office of the Director of

Defense Research and Engineering, “Information Analysis Centers—Do D policy Qn

Cost Recovery. ” Committee on Scientific

and Technical Information (COSATI),

1972.

U.S. General Accounting Office, U.S. Actions Needed to Cope With Commodjty

Shortages, B-114824, Washington, D. C.,

April 26, 1974.

Westbrook, J. H., “Materials Information:

An Examination of the Adequacy of Existing Systems, ” Requircmen ts for F’ulfilljng (J

National Materials Policy, proceedings of

conference by the Federation of Materials

Societies for the Office of TeChnQIOgy

Assessment. U.S. Congress, Henniker,

New Hampshire, August 11-16, 1974.
Chapter IV

POTENTIAL OF EXISTING

FEDERAL MATERIALS INFORMATION

SYSTEMS TO SUPPORT

THE INTEGRATED CAPABILITIES
Chapter IV

Review of a

rently in use by

POTENTIAL OF EXISTING

FEDERAL MATERIALS INFORMATION

SYSTEMS TO SUPPORT

THE INTEGRATED CAPABILITIES

limited set of materials information systems curFederal agencies indicates that they provide a

reasonably strong base for developing the integrated

capabilities. Many of the basic functions are already being implemented or are in development, and much of the required data is

being generated and collected.

However, since the existing systems were developed by

different agencies, for different purposes, and at different times,

integrating them to achieve the improved capabilities requires:

●

●

●

Improving the completeness, currency, and accuracy

of their data bases;

Improving the access to them and the ability to interrelate them by adopting more uniform usage of terms

and developing proced

and

Improving their capabi

presenting results to

formats.

ures for ensuring data security;

lities for analyzing the data and

decisionmakers in meaningful

A. INTRODUCTION

Many of the Government agencies involved

in materials policymaking operate materials

information systems comprising people, procedures, facilities, and data in a variety of

forms, Some are predominantly manual; some

make substantial use of automation. All have

evolved over man y years as institutions and all

have been assigned varying responsibilities for

different classes of materials. They all gather

and analyze relevant data to monitor conditions in particular materials sectors and

measure the effectiveness of Government

policies thereto. Most systems publish their

statistics on supply or utilization as a service to

industries and the public, Many of the systems

have been very stable. For others, missions
CHAPTER IV

and techniques have changed over the years as tegrated capabilities, no attempt was made to

new needs and priorities arose, and these have evaluate how well the current systems are acbeen augmented to meet special, time-critical complishing the jobs for which they were

requirements. built.

This segment of the assessment examined a Personal interviews, using a formalized

selected set of these systems to find how they questionnaire, were conducted with personnel

might support the integrated capabilities. A of 10 Federal agencies. Additionally, the

collateral aim was to understand the opera- assessment reviewed descriptions of materials

tional problems these systems encountered so information systems used by Congress, four

that their experience could be factored into the other Federal executive agencies, and several

consideration of how the integrate d State governments. In all, over 60 interviews

capabilities might be implemented. It should were conducted with managers and users of

be emphasized that, except for those cases materials information systems.

where the systems specifically matched the inB. CONGRESSIONAL INFORMATION SYSTEMS

Congress obtains information to support

materials policymaking from three principal

sources: (1) the Federal and State executive

systems; (2) the private sector, including industry, trade associations. academic institutions, lobby groups, and the general public;

and (3) its own information systems. The

legislative systems are oriented to the special

kinds of information Congressmen and their

staffs require. These cover:

● Fiscal-budgetary information, such as:

—New budget requests,

—Past budget and expenditure data,

—Funding by line item entry and

special subject category,

—Long-range budget projections;

● Program evaluation data, such as:

—“Hard” data (inventory and economic

data),

—“Soft” data (numbers of people

by programs, social impact);

. Program oversight data, such as:

—Authorizing statutes,

served

—Relevant appropriations (initial and

follow-on),

—Executive branch implementation actions;

Data on status of legislation, such as:

—Pending bills,

—Expiring laws,

—Historical data; and

Research information, principally scientific and technical information.

The congressional agencies that provide this

information include:

●

●

●

●

●

●

Congressional committees and administrative offices,

Congressional Research Service (Library

of Congress),

National Referral Center (Library of Congress),

Congressional Budget Office,

General Accounting Office, and

Office of Technology Assessment.

Table IV-1 lists some of the information

sources.

In calling on all these agencies for information, Congressmen and their staffs correlate

and reconcile discrepancies in the different inputs and integrate the mass of data—a major

task. Two centralized legislative information

systems have been established. The Bill Status

94
CHAPTER IV

Information

P

~FIscal -

Source Budgetary

Information

U.S. Congress, committees and

administration

Congressional Research Service

National Referral Center

Congressional Budget Office

General Accounting Office

Office of Technology Assessment

Executive sector input

Public sector input

x

x

System (Aquarius) provides legislative history, tracking, and statistical data and printed

status reports. Indexing is done by subject

matter (metals, forestry, aluminum, resources,

timber, etc.), sponsor or co-sponsor committee,

date, and number. The Legislative Information

System (Scorpio) provides a bill digest, major

issues, material, referrals to organizations related to technology and the sciences, and

printed reports. These systems provide a

searching and retrieval capability based on the

subject matter indexes or more specific

parameters. Their use does not replace the

analysis of documents. but they do provide access to legislation, bibliographies, reports, and

references to pertinent organizations. They

can alleviate the problem of receiving too

much information, since searching can be

refined to reduce the number of relevant

references.

Still other information services ar e

routinely provided by the Library of Congress.

The Senior Specialist Division of the Congressional Research Service provides information

Program

Evaluation

Data

x

x

x

x

x

x

x

Ptogram

Oversight

Data

x

x

x

x

x

x

Legislation

x

x

x

Research

Information

x

x

x

x

x

in the form of analyses, interpretive studies,

projections, chronologies, facts, and special

bibliographies. The National Referral Center

(NRC) also provides research information in

terms of referrals to organizations and individuals who can answer specific questions

in scientific and technical fields. NRC uses a

subject-indexed data base containing profiles

of 9,000 organizations. The Center’s referral

specialists provide names, addresses,

telephone numbers, and their areas of expertise in response to queries.

These legislative information systems do

not have sufficient analytical or integrating

capability of the kind needed to provide

forecasts of the possible effects of policy decisions on the economy, For this, Congress must

rely on the executive branch and the private

sector. Thus, while Congress can improve its

own systems, its most effective avenue for obtaining better policy planning information appears to be to strengthen the existing Federal

executive systems and to establish procedures

guaranteeing access to them.

95
CHAPTER IV

C. EXECUTIVE MATERIALS

The Federal agencies covered in this review

are listed in table IV-2. Additional contacts

were also made with agencies of some 13

States; of these, data bases maintained by

Alaska and Illinois were pertinent to the

review and were included.1

In questioning managers and users of these

materials information systems, the survey

focused on:

. Data bases;

. Information management

the techniques which build

the data bases, and retrieve,

duce reports: and

systems, i.e.,

and maintain

sort, and pro-

. Mathematical/analytical models and tools

used for interrelating supply and demand

factors to arrive at forecasts.

1. Data Bases and Information

Management Systems

Table IV–3 summarizes some of the institutional characteristics of the 23 data bases and

the associated information management

systems that were examined. The table shows

the automated information management

system, if any, which the data base supports;

the agency responsible for operating the

systems; the geographic location of the data

base; and the purpose of the system. Except for

the data bases sponsored by Alaska and

Illinois, and a few cases in which States support SRS and EPA data bases, virtually all

funding for these systems is borne by the

Federal Government. (In the case of the DOD

Information Analysis Centers, user fees provide for a substantial portion of the costs;

I (; () n t a (; ts w j t h t h ~ o t h ~ rs (A rka n sas. A r i ZO n a,

California. Colorado, (%or~ia, Iowa, Maryland, Montana,

New Mexico, Texas, and Utah) indicated that their

resource-oriented information systems were developed

for soil, land use, and water resources rather than for

mdterials, per se.

INFORMATION SYSTEMS

however, most users are DOD contractors and

these costs are ultimately borne by the

Government,)

The review indicated a trend away from

specific programs to support special data bases

towards generalized data managemen t

systems which support multiple data bases

more easily and with better response time for

special requests. These data management

systems also support proprietary files and limit

access by nonqualified users.

Table IV–4 summarizes the materials information provided by the selected data bases.

The sponsoring Federal agencies are the main

data base users, primarily due to limited access

to proprietary data maintained at the company/site level. Data from some bases, like

CRIB and TIMLUC, are currently restricted to

Federal and State employees, but this restriction may change under the Freedom of Information Act. When the proprietary data is summarized to a sufficient level of aggregation, it

is considered open to other agencies and the

public. However, provisions and facilities for

public access are not available on a regular

basis. United States Geological Survey has a

study to make the CRIB data base available to

users via CRT terminals at Menlo Park, Calif.,

or Denver, Colo.

As shown in Table IV–4, there is a concentration of effort with apparent redundancy

in the energy fuels area, USGS, BOM, FEA,

FPC, ERDA, and the Bureau of Census are all

involved in data collection either on a voluntary or a mandatory basis. Most of the data

bases indicated in the table suffer from a lack

of adequate international data. Many countries

do not collect the data or are unwilling to

make it available. The State Department’s

CERP and USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service account for the most of the international

data.

Tables IV–5 and IV–6 list some of the data

processing characteristics of the data bases. As

96
CHAPTER IV

Table IV-2.—Agency Personnel Interviewed During Survey

Agency Title

Department of Agriculture Analyst, Office of the Secretary

Economic Research Service (ERS) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Director

Forest Service (FS).. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Administrator of Service

Statistical Reporting Service (SRS) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Chief Research Division

ADP Technical Personnel

Department of Commerce

Bureau of Census . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Director

Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Analyst

Domestic and international Business Administration (DIVA) . . . . . . . . . . . . . Associate Director, ADP

National Bureau of Standards (NBS) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Chief

department of Defense information Analysis Center (DOD/lAC) . . . . . . . . . . . . . Staff Specialist

department of the Interior

Bureau of Land Management (BALM ) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Chief,ADP

Analyst

Bureau of Mines (BOM) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Department Manager

Program Coordinator

Chief of Statistics Branch

Commodity Specialist

Office of Mineral Policy Development (OMPD) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Director

Minerals Analyst (Mining

Engineer)

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Branch Chief

Commodity Specialist

Branch Chief

department of State

Industrial and Strategic Materials Division. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Assistant Chief

Energy Research and Development Administration (ERDA). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Assistant Director for Raw

Materials

Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Project Director

Federal Energy Administration (FEA) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Director

Chief,~ADP

Project Manager

Federal Power Commission (FPC) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Director, Plans and Program

General Services Administration (GSA) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Staff Analyst

97

H(l-l,?fj [1 - 7’7 - d
CHAPTER IV

-

-

Location*

Survey energy reserves in all countries

98
CHAPTER IV

Table IV-4_Content Characteristics of Selected Data Bases

Data Base

CAIB

NCDB

FAS

MAS

CDB

PD Inventory

Minerals

Census

TIMLUC

SRS

Stockpile

Fuels

Sec. Index

Environment

Air Quality

Water Quality

Uranium

World Energy

RIS

CERP

Basic Coal

Gas/oil

USGS

uSGS

BOM

BOM

BOM

BLM

ELM

Bur of

FS

SRS

GSA

FEA

FEA

EPA

EPA

EPA

ERDA

ERDA

FPC

DOD

IAC

Dept. of

state

Illinois

Akaska

User*

All

All

All

F, S, I

F

F

F. S, I

F, T, U

F, S, I, U

F, S

F

F

F

F, S

F, S

F, S

F

F, 1, T

F

F

AAl

s

s, 1, u

Typasof Data

Minerals & coal location:geology; prod.;

reserves, resources eat.

Coal resource est. & reliability; geology:

depletion rate; chem. analysis

Coal prod., reserves, resource est:oil, oil

shale, &gas prod:oil imports:chem. anal.

Minerals (alum., gold, tin, nickel)resource

est.; extraction volume &costs, transporta

tion profile; capital & operating costs

Minerals prod. & prod. capacity:

secondary recovery

U.S. public Iand reserves & resources eat.;

leasing; map coordinates

Prod., recycling, import, export

statistics

Field samples profiles; timber resource

est.; aerial photo descriptions

FieId sample profiles; prod. by crop

Quantites by location; chem. analysis

Coal & oil statistics

Area prod. & prod. capacity; consumption; waste prod.; energy req., esp. for coal

Air pollution measurements, esp. for cod

Water pollution measurements,esp. for oil

Uranium resource estimates

Reserves; prod. & prod. capacity; price

& cost; consumption; capital investment

R&D abstracts;term index; bibliographic

details

IIl. reserves & resources est.; prod.;

chem. analysis

Number of Records

50,000 in 1975

150,000 by 1977

5,000,000 by 1980

1,000,000 in 1975

420,000 in 1975

797,000 by 1982

70,000 by 1980

7,000 in 1974

70,000 in 1974

1,000,000 in 1975

5,000,000 in future

100,000 in 1975

35,000 in 1976

250,000 by 1981

99
CHAPTER IV

Table IV-5.—Data Collection and Handling Characteristics of Selected Data Bases

Data Sources storage

Media

) j

x

x

x x

x

x

x

x

x

x

x

x x

x

x

x

K x

x

Update Frequency Data Base

Form

100
CHAPTER IV

Table IV-6.—Data Maintenance and Reporting Characteristics of Selected Data Bases and

Associated Information Management Systems

Analysis

Techmcwe

Data

Maintenance

Data

Retrieval output

—

a) a

—:

x

x

x

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x

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RI

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Information

Management

System

Data Base

=2

$

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CRIB

NCDB

FAS

MAS

COB

PO

Inventory

Minerals

Census

TIMLUC

SRS

Stockode

Fuels

Sec Index

Envwon -

ment

Atr oualtty

Water

Ouallty

Uramum

World

Energy

RIS

MCIC

CERP

Basic Coal

Gas/Oil

GYPSY

GYPSY

DMS II

DMS II

DMS l)

—

—

INFORM

—

—

—

FEILS

—

—

—

ORCtilS

ORCHIS

RIS

—

CERP

Coal Data

Sys

—

“Turnaround Time 1—72 hours 2—24 ‘IOLVS 3—immediate {online) 4—48 hours pr)ordy, up to 1 month- normal 5-3 hours

listed in table IV–4, the primary data sources

are questionnaires and surveys conducted by

the agencies and reports from industry, both

mandatory and voluntary. Secondary data

sources are publications from other agencies.

For some files (trade data from the Bureau of

Census and MAS data from BOM), magnetic

tapes are used to exchange computer-sensible

data between data bases.

of the data bases and the types of storage

media employed. Table IV-6 shows that for

some of the automated systems, direct-access

disk files are being used and others are moving

toward adopting them. These permit online

file maintenance and retrieval from remote

typewriter and CRT terminals. The GSA network INFONET provides online maintenance

and retrieval capabilities for several agencies,

Table IV-6 also indicates the types of

analysis techniques used in the information

management systems. The analysis support

capability, which becomes increasingly important as mo;e complete and reliable data are

All the data bases verify the data to some

extent. Most use historical trends and inspection; some use error analysis programs. The

frequency of update ranges from monthly to

every 10 years. Table IV-5 also lists the form

101
CHAPTER IV

gathered and maintained, includes mathematical and statistical functions. Report program

generators are available, both online and

through remote processing, to support particular formats and aggregations required by users.

The types of output formats available from the

various systems are listed in table IV-6.

2. Mathematical/Analytical Models

Although the distinctions are not clearcut,

the models used in materials information

systems fall into four general categories: (1)

econometric regression models, (2) input/output models, (3) linear programming

models, and (4) simulation models.

Econometric regression models, the most

widely used, are generally developed on an ad

hoc basis for specific purposes, thus their

strengths and weaknesses are model-specific.

In contrast, input/output and linear programming models permit generalizations of their

capabilities and limitations. Simulation and

other specialized models are only occasionally

used in forecasting/planning.

As indicative of their states of development,

a survey of 39 models was conducted to determine how well they could accomplish the

analytical functions for the improved

capabilities. Table IV–7 lists the models surveyed, their users, the areas of application/analysis, and the functions supported by

the models. In a general way, the table indicates the functional areas for which forecasting models are more developed than for

others, notably in the areas of demand models

and production distribution models.

a. Econometric Regression Models. The

Aluminum Forecasting Model (AFM),

developed by Charles River Associates of

Boston, Mass., is representative of available

econometric models. It is a form of regression

modeling consisting of simultaneous equations

fitted from historical data by means of regression techniques. It has been formulated to

analyze the interaction between aluminum

supply and demand and, in particular, the impact of Government actions on the price movements of aluminum ingots, For example, it can

be used to analyze the effects of alternative

GSA aluminum disposal policies. The model’s

scope and capabilities to support materials

management are summarized as input and

output in figure IV–I.

AFM, as well as other econometric regression models, relies heavily on extrapolation

from historical trends. This inhibits consideration of dynamic changes in economic ,

demographic , or technological trends.

Capacity installations are projected on the

basis of information from the aluminum industry, but no significant technologically induced structural changes were contemplated

during the model’s planning horizo n

(1972-76), Furthermore, model performance is

very sensitive to discontinuities in the required time-series inputs, Another limitation

is that AFM accounts only for the market

clearing mechanism for one stage of the

aluminum industry (production of aluminum

ingots); it does not account for price, supply,

and demand patterns in other segments of the

industry (in the bauxite mine segment or the

final aluminum user segment), The model appears to be very rigid in that the set of equations describing the market adjustment

mechanism does not apply during periods of

rationing, Indeed, it is a limitation generic to

econometric regression models that they are

special-purpose tools and are only appropriate

for a narrow range of applications,

b. Input/Output Models. The informationgenerating capabilities that input/output

models offer to materials management are

shown in the information flow summaries of

Figure IV–2 for (1) CIAS (GSA’s Contingency

Impact Analysis System), (2) EEPPM (University of Illinois’ Energy -Employment-Pollution

Policy Model), (3) INFORUM (Interindustry

Forecasting Model—University of Maryland),

and (4) SEAS (EPA’s Strategic Environmental

Assessment System). The similarities and dissimilarities between input and output among

these models are apparent. In general, they account for the demand side of the materials

102
CHAPTER IV

F

Modal

APM

SEAfPM

SEAIO

0EA12M

SESOM

I

CACM

CAIDM

Cm

CMIDM

CPCM

m

DEMOS

DESM

ONRUM

EEWM

I EFFIM

EMuS

EQM

FREPAS

GIOM

I

INFORUM

MANERGY

MEM

MRIO

NIRAF

I NSEM

PIES

OMCwEM

ffEADY

RFFM

RCPS

SAM

SEAS

TPEcM

WAIF

WfM

W)RLD3

P!!ETable IV-7.-Mathematlcal/AnaJytical Models Surveyed

Alumnum Forocadme Model

Bureau of EmmmtIc AIWIVUS FIsd POIICV Madd

SweaI of E-wAnalvut IIMWt OufPUt Mcdsl

8UrUU of Economic #%dvM thWtOrtv Mc&!

Smokhwcn Enww SyWwn Ofx,mmatmm Model

C+pw.Alummum Cornfjctnion MCorwar.Almwmum Indmtnd OVrwnic$ Mcdd

COmIIWUWV Im$wa Antivm SVSram

Cowwr Marke! Indwtnd DvnarnIcs MUM

Gmmod,w Production CVcle$ MoM

Cost.Prwa Pmaura Madd

Damqrxic E-m Moddmff Sysmm

Dvnsnwc Erwrw Systmn Modd

Dynarmc Nmw&! Rmourm UtIhmtmn MOdd

Enaqv.Emr40ynwnt PollutIon POIWV Modsl

Ecomam,c.Envlr-ntd Tradaoff Model

Energv Facd!t,et d Resowcv$ Modd

Ene{w MC4SI for dw Unned States

Enerw &dltV !hdtI

Forest Range Envmm’mmd Production Aodvtwaf SVi.

Gmemhztd Inputloutwt Model

lntennduwrv Foremstmg Modtl+fnmwmv of M+and

Enarw Manqtme.t Modal for the Unwtf Stmes

Metal Endowment Model

Multi-Regtond Input/Output Mcdd

NmI.md Inwrrqmml&,cultura! Projacwm System

Natumal Socm.EwtwrItc Mcdel

Projact Indqendancc Evdumon SVsteM

OIIMn Muv Cdlqt World ErICrW Model

Attack %WIWI.X and Damagt Ata-t kfodd

Fteaowca$ for ah Futwa Mcdoi

Rwwut Prcducwm Eudustnm Morhl

ShwtJga Aflc4atbn Modd

Strstmsic Environwtantd Astcstmm t Systcm

Tax Policv and E- Gwwrvatkm Modd

Wwrton Arm@ MCI industry Fc.mmtirq Wadd

Wodd I**w

Limita to Growth M@d

wdd RosIond IIWM/Otnpm MCI&l

U8af

GsA

DOC

OCW

Doc

EROA

. . .

-.

GSA

. . .

Doc

. . .

. . .

. . .

. .

. .

. . .

.-

ERDA

U30A

..

EPA

. .

. .

Oot

USOA

. . .

ERDA

. . .

GsA

EPA

Ofx

OOC

EPA

EPA

-.

-.

.-

. . .

Effactsof GSAdumlftuin ~mfki”montfaa

price —ntt Qfduanimmf Iqota

GNP fwwxsting

Intindua@y fwac9atin#

QNPfwcatths

Altomativcw dmtionanddbtrihkm tddquaa,

pdicktonenwsvmttam

Dvnankt ofumlfmtidtm b-dwltlfnnlf

md wwor

GvnalatK.t Of COmfmtitiwltwwaon atulfinum

andoaflflw

Matcrids dmrund f~thlg

Dvnamka of cower nwltat ffuctwtiona

Ovnamm of comntoditv froductian CVcfoa

Intermdustrv im~ m$camwtt of~~ in tha

pricq pmductwity. gwfita. MaW4Ua, 0? I*

caats of an industry

DamOpqftic and acwmmacfwatxafiq

Ovnamksof lmarfud wmpdkkm

OVnamn9 of natural raaowca utilizxkm

Enargv matar,akdamuat, ampfovmam fwoh,md

P41utkn rmduals fm~tim

Trada.offs Mwasn umuxtdc growth d

mvlmnmemd *try

Prmtuctmn and dwnbution fadlit~ b~

Iwterld$

Oanund farecaatq fff QMISV mduiafs

Retfmw of fuds YIJpflfV>dOt?l*, ad PQS to

Fmttulatad ● ir tfuaftfy rmf@tatnmUt

Aftamatlw @ma for tfm man8@mam and

protwwn of rangE rattwreat

Imerindustrv Impact uaaflmwt of naw artwgv

ICchnolt!gwt

hltanndu$try f~~

EffacQ of retoura and fud aitacrmtivat,

mwironnnmd tmmrds, and tccftnalqkd adwncn

Estinutmo Of mctaf -W frOnIp@tytical dlta

ffavattd intwirdua~ fuautiw

G8mtnd wd wpftfy pfojmfittman 4@xdtur#

C%mmKlditiaa

Dvllmdaof UnmaIniafkwatlw gmwfft. and

mwmnmentdhatowca ramraintt

Effsct of fuel fxfas, fmtantid of fwf auhnitutimm,

and WcfmOfqwal consrminta inhiL$ti~~

motmdswpprio

Intwnmwxtaf eneqv ~oductton snd dktribution svatam

Attock wnulstion and damage attawmm

Matarid msourcatdemml and pctlutkm miduafa

fcmwmting

Edvpmt.attack ~Waaof US. .commv

bntumdusrry mtpactt of Uaammditvm

MaWial Ietouwsc, tfamand,~ malvm, 4

mllution maidds foraaaating

Effmct of tax fmfkwt an ttm dammd and $uppfV

et wwsv matarlak

GNPand inmrindwtty XIW

Intwmtinnd matariol maurat ~.nd

Wsnckuddwlatlonktmcmth axfaffacaof amumptwm m wddw*aAmwtm@quditv

tat V’Kl mtwid - - QmwTh Im&l mvbmmf

raaoura wmtraint$

Worldwide i-for~irq

—

—

x

x

x

x

x

.

—

x

x

x

x

—

x

x

x

x

x

x

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x

x

x

x

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1

x

x

x

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A

x

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x

x

x

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x

m

x

)

)

)

)

x

x

x

x

economic system, with the supply side treated FORUM, 367 for EEPPM), the number of

in a rudimentary fashion. The basic input for material groups for which requirements are

each model is a set of fundamenta l computed on the basis of industry output (9 I

demographic and macroeconomic projections. material groups for CIAS, 23 material groups

The lists of output, however, reveal the for SEAS), and the extent of further operations

differences due to the number of industries on the output, such as computation of employinto which the economy is divided by the ment requirements, capital requirements, and

various models (86 for CIAS, 185 for IN- pollution residuals.

103
CHAPTER IV

Figure IV–1. Econometric Regression Model Information Flow Summary

Inputs outputs

. Unit costs of bauxite production fac -

i i

. U.S. aluminum ingot shipments by

tors utilization categories

● Unit costs of aluminum ingot produc- . Aluminum scrap recovery by world

tion factors areas

. Net GSA aluminum sales . Prices of aluminum ingots and

. Aluminum production capacities by

aluminum scrap

world areas . Wage Indices and other national and

● U S. Disposable income and other

international indicators for the

aluminum industry

macroeconomic indicators I

. Exchange rates and other international trade indicators

104
CHAPTER IV

Figure IV-2. Input/Output Model Information Flow Summaries

I

I

. — — .

I I I

I .

/ ’ L

i

1

[

An input/output model typically does not

offer the richness in detail of an econometric

regression model such as AFM for a particular

industry or application, but it does offer an integrated framework for the analysis of interactions among the various industries of the

economy and a wide range of applications.

The basic capability of such a model is to compute the total output required from each industrial sector of the economy to satisfy a

given set of final demands for the products

(goods and services) of each sector. In doing

so, the input/output computations take into account both the first and second order effects of

a change in the demand for a product on the

output requirements of all industries. Thus, a

change in the demand for autos will have an

impact not only on the output required by the

auto industry, but also on the output required

by the steel industry and all other industries

supplying input to the auto industry.

Although input/output models are basically

a tool for macroeconomic analysis, their importance for environmental and resource

policy is that they can be modified or extended

(by using additional matrices of appropriately

defined coefficients) to compute pollution

residuals and material resource requirements

for a given level of economic activity.

However, as noted, only the demand side of

the economy is considered, although SEAS has

been developed to the point where certain

feedback effects between supply and demand

105
CHAPTER IV

have been taken into account. It also must be

pointed out that, while it is easy to extend the

analytical input/output framework to incorporate both materials residuals and material

resources, it requires a considerable amount of

time and effort to develop the required data

base, with the data collection and reduction requirements becoming more severe as the level

of disaggregation of either industry sectors or

material groups increases.

c. Linear Programming Models. T h e

capabilities of linear programming models to

format materials production and distribution is

illustrated in the information flow summaries

of figure IV-3 for four such models: (1) BESOM

(Brookhaven’s Energy System Optimization

Model), (2) FREPAS (USDA Forest Range Environmental Production Analytical System),

(3) PIES (FEA’s Project Independence Evaluation System), and (4) QMCWEM (Queen Mary

Figure IV-3. Linear Programming Model Information Flow Summary

A

Input

\ (

output

. Supply constraints by type of energy

resource

. Demand constraints by type of end

use

● Environmental constraints

Minimum cost production-distribution

activity levels for combinations of

BESOM . 26 supply categories

● 16 end-use categories

. Other (ad hoc) constraints ) (

B

Input outpu t

. Product requirements by 22 types Minimum cost resource unit-land use

practice activity levels for combination of . Land constraints by 34 types

. 34 resource categories

. 18 land use categories

c

Input

. Supply constraints by region and by

type of energy resource

. Demand constraints by region and by

type of end-use

outpu t

● Minimum cost production-distribution

activity levels for combinations of a

given set of resources categories,

end-use categories, and regions,

Input

. Forecasts of world petroleum demands by 300 product groups for 22

world areas

. Price of marginal crude 011

● Capital and operating costs

. Crude resources, refining capacities

and tanker capacities constraints ,

QMCWEM ●

outpu t

Equilibrium prices of oil and gas

products by product groups and

world areas

Minimum cost program of world-wide

refinery construction (by size, 12

types of processes and 22 world

areas) and tanker construction (by

size)

106
CHAPTER IV

College World Energy Model). In contrast to

the input/output models’ rudimentary treatment of the supply side of the economy, linear

programming models provide a detailed treatment. The supply structure is the web of extraction, processing, conversion, and transportation activities required to make materials actually available for use by industry and the

final consumer, These activities can be represented conceptually in the form of a network

and, for the case of several materials measurable in the same physical units (e.g,, energy

materials in BTU’s), are amenable to

mathematical formulation as a linear programming model.

The treatment of the demand structure of

the economy in BESOM, FREPAS, and QMCWEM is limited to an exogenous specification

of demand requirements for the various

materials, PIES offers more macroeconomic

content. It has been developed to provide a

comprehensive framework within which to

evaluate specific energy policy issues and

changing world and domestic conditions and

to assess the impacts of alternative policy options. Specifically, it is designed to generate

projections and impact assessments required

for Project Independence, including planning

estimates depicting possible states of the U.S.

energy system, recognizing the effect of relative prices, the potential for fuel substitution,

and the technological constraints on energy

supplies. PIES is composed of an econometric

demand model and a linear programming supply model coupled together, and it forecasts

both quantities and prices of fuels on the basis

of a market-clearing mechanism which

iteratively yields a balance between supply

and demand. More specifically, the demand

model is embedded in the supply model. In

searching for the equilibrium point between

supply and demand, the model iterates in a

recursive fashion until the market-clearing

prices and quantities of energy products for a

given year are found. The demand model used

by PIES does not offer as much detail on the

demand structure of the economy as the previously discussed input/output models, but it

does provide the means for examining policy

questions that can be stated in terms of

changes in supply and demand curves,

modification of energy production distribution

technologies, or operational constraints on the

energy supply system. However, an unlimited

physical availability of fuels is still implicitly

assumed, and there is no provision for consideration of second-order effects.

d. Break-Integration Method of Combining Models. The process of using models to

produce materials in format ion fo r

policy makers involves both human judgment

and data processing. Although in theory much

of the judgment might be programmed into the

models, in fact, a break-integration concept—

whereby human judgment interacts with the

various models for any given analysis—presently offers the most effective way to utilize

available models. Thus, in forecasting the demand for a given material, the analyst will

break in between the analysis of the time

series and the computation of the forecast to

select the appropriate forecasting model.

Similarly, in assessing the economic ramifications of demand or supply adjustment options

to solve an anticipated shortage, the analyst

will break in after exercising the respective

materials consumption and production models

in order to analyze intermediate results.

Figure IV–4 depicts a concept for a break-integrated policy analysis facility, The system is

composed of a data base, a number (n) of

forecasting and impact assessment models, a

master model, and a man/machine interface,

For a materials policy support facility, the n

models could be, for example, the nine models

outlined in figures IV-1 through IV–3, Each

model includes its own individual data base in

addition to the generic data base. Furthermore,

each model can be used either individually or

in conjunction with other models via the

master model, The master model would provide the interface between the analyst and

each model, and between each pair of models.

To interface between the analyst and the data

base, the master model would include data

107
CHAPTER IV

analysis programs and model-building techniques in addition to tabular and graphic display capabilities. To interface between the

analyst and the models, the master model

Figure IV-4. Concept of a Break-Integrated

Policy Analysis System

Data

I

/

+

would include programs to access and exercise

each one of the models. Furthermore, for one

or more pairs of mutually complementary

models, it would include programs t o

transform the output of one model into input

for the other model. In order to validate the

decisions of the analyst at the break, his actions should be recorded along with the

reasons for his selection,

Active involvement at the break by

policy makers would be another way of ensuring valid decisions. In any case, policy makers

should understand the assumptions that were

made in running and/or integrating the various

models. As an example, the break-integration

method could be used in an analysis of the use

of energy materials in the United States, This

involves consideration of energy requirements

and the energy production and distribution

system. These systems interact; moreover,

they are affected by foreign considerations.

Thus, a domestic economic energy system

model, such as INFORUM, should be complemented with an international model, such as

QMCWEM, Because of the difficulties associated with operating large-scale models, it may

not be possible to accomplish their full integration. However, it may be possible to develop

the capability to exercise both models by using

the break-integration technique. The structure

and information content of INFORUM and

QMCWEM, presented in figures IV-2 and

IV–3, are indicative of some of the interfaces

that would have to be worked out to use them

in a break-integrated fashion.

108
CHAPTER IV

D. REQUIRED IMPROVEMENTS IN MATERIALS INFORMATION SYSTEMS

Although the review was necessarily

limited, and the results should be interpreted

with care, several areas of deficiency, vis-a-vis

the integrated capabilities were noted. With

respect to the ways agencies (a) collect, handle, and analyze data and (b) present resulting

information, there appear to be six key areas in

which significant improvements would have

to be made to achieve the kind of performance

envisioned in the integrated capabilities.

These are summarized in table IV–8 along

with an assessment

1. Completeness

of their criticality.

of Data Bases

Among the most serious deficiencies are insufficient data on private domestic reserves

and inadequate data on foreign holdings,

resources, reserves, productive capacity, consumption, etc. The number of materials now

covered by existing systems may also be inadequate for the integrated capabilities. For

example, the Bureau of Mines’ MAS currently

has reasonably complete coverage on only four

minerals; plans are in place to increase that

coverage to 36 minerals over the next 5 years.

In addition, current systems do not cover all

the different kinds of data

system would require. Thus,

more complete information

would need to be acquired.

2. Accessibility

the improved

for example,

on recycling

This problem area refers both to problems in

obtaining needed data, primarily from private

industry, and in transferring data and information among agencies. Experience of existing

materials information systems in acquiring

data from industry show these issues to be particularly sensitive. Controversy abounds on

the merits of setting voluntary versus com -

pulsory submission requirements. Many of the

agencies, often those that have established

close working relationships with industry,

believe that voluntary methods yield higher

quality data than do mandatory regulations.

Other agencies feel that only mandatory

methods can ensure necessary completeness

and reliability. There appears to be little objective experience available to weigh the claims,

Experiments to perfect techniques for collecting geological and other kinds of data via

remote sensing from satellites are underway.

Such a capability could make it easier to obtain

needed information, especially in undeveloped areas where data on resources and

Table IV-8.-Criticality of Problem Areas in Selected Systems

Information

System

Elements

Complete- Accesness sibility

Data

Collection

Data

Handling

Analysis

Reporting

Serious

Moderate

Moderate

Serious

Critical

Serious

Moderate

Serious

Problem Areas

Standard- Reliability/

ization Accuracy

Critical Serious

Serious Moderate

Moderate Serious

Moderate Moderate

Critical-Critical level of concern; critical need for improvement inferred.

Serious—Serious level of concern; serious need for improvement inferred.

Moderate

Serious

Moderate

Serious

Serious

Not

Applicable

Critical

Not

Applicable

Moderate-Moderate level of concern; occasionally cited as area in need of improvement.

1(-JCJ
CHAPTER IV

reserves are sparse. Early results are promising. However, much refinement is apparently

needed before fully practical satellite systems

can be applied. 2

With regard to data/in formatio n

transferability, the review indicated that only

a limited interchange was being made among

agencies at the unprocessed data level. Most

information transfer occurs via formal, serial

reports published by the various agencies.

Sharing of information at the raw data level

and use of processed results before formal

publication (conditions inherent in the conceptual system) have been inhibited by several

factors, Because of agreements made with

firms supplying needed information, some

data is not available to all interested parties;

for example, data collected by ERDA was not

made fully available to the Bureau of Mines,

Often, an interested party does not know that

the desired information exists, or the data is

not available in a suitable form to enable

transfer from one agency to another, Even

when the information exists in a computerized

format, differences in format and definition

often make it difficult for a second party to understand it,

3. Standardization

This problem area refers both to common

standards and data formats (technical details)

and to the more difficult issue of establishing

common definitions of terms. Shared use of

current systems is impeded by inconsistent

use of units of measure (long versus short ton);

confusion over meanings of terms (bauxite

and aluminum are used interchangeably); and

incompatible time-tagging of data (some data

corresponds to shipping date, other data to

~Experiments to perfect these methods are underway.

A new satellite, LANDSAT D, with approximately three

times the resolution of current satellites. LANDSATS A

and B, is planned to be launched, but not before 1981.

contract date), These conditions introduce

double counting and gaps and limit the ability

to compare and aggregate data from different

sources. It is particularly troublesome to the

industrial user of the information, who normally has no means to reconcile inconsistencies.

4. Reliability/Accuracy

While each agency applies judgment in accepting data submitted to it, there appears to

be limited formal opportunity or technique to

validate input. This applies particularly to data

submitted voluntarily, but it also applies to

data which must be provided by law.

5. Timeliness

This problem area refers to the turnaround

time in responding to requests. Timeliness

does not appear to be a critical constraint.

However, it would be an important consideration in responding to unanticipated shortage

situations. For many planning studies, the acceptable turnaround time may be measured in

weeks, but for crisis situations, it may be days

or even hours. Assuming other system deficiencies (completeness of data bases, standardized formats, etc. ) have been reconciled, improved timeliness, if needed, could be

achieved (but at higher cost) through use of

more powerful data processing hardware.

6. Statistical/Analytical Capability

This problem area refers to the use of

forecasting models. The review disclosed that

while no agency was using models covering all

the functions included in the integrated

capabilities, many agencies were experimenting with using several models akin to those

discussed here.

110
CHAPTER IV

E. SUMMARY

The large number of agencies operating

materials information systems, each focusing

on particular aspects but dependent on many

agencies’ systems for input data, confirms the

need for more integration. The existing array

of Government systems provides a strong

starting point for that development. Many of

the deficiencies noted in the systems examined here have been recognized by their

developers. In many cases, programs are underway to correct them. particularly in

upgrading the data bases.

It should be recognized that some of the existing systems have been in the developmental

phase for decades; most of the more automated

systems are relatively new. Almost all were

designed to address specific, pressing singleagency problems. Coordinating and integrating

them, particularly as they expand, to achieve

the kind of functions envisioned in the integrated capabilities will present a significant

challenge, The options for effecting this

upgrading are discussed in the next two chapters.

111
Chapter V

OPTIONS FOR ACHIEVING THE

INTEGRATED CAPABILITIES
Chapter V

OPTIONS FOR ACHIEVING THE

INTEGRATED CAPABILITIES

There are a number of options available to Congress and the

President for improving materials information and analysis in accordance with the needs previously identified in Chapters I-IV.

These options range from no direct action, to hearings, executive

orders, and finally to legislation.

In illustrating the implementation possibilities of the last option, three alternative systems approaches for achieving the integrated capabilities were examined.

● Approach A would employ an interagency committee or

congressionally authorized group to coordinate the existing materials information systems;

● Approach B would create a full-time organization which

would make step-by-step improvements in the existing

information systems and add new supplementary

capabilities as required;

● Approach C would create a central program management office which would first design the improved

capabilities from the “top-down,” then would decide

what, if any, portions of the existing information systems

could be utilized in the new design.

The relative merits of the three approaches are compared and

their order-of-magnitude costs are developed.

A. INTRODUCTION

A number of options are available to Congress and the President as a means of improving current Government materials information

systems in accordance with the needs previously described in chapters I-IV. These options range from no direct action, to hearings,

oversight, executive order, and finally to

legislation. The options focus particularly on

executive and/or legislative actions to provide

integrated materials information capabilities

in support of policy-level decision making.

The analysis in earlier chapters strongly

suggests that, without direct and concerted action, the legislative/executive branch needs for

improved materials information in support of

public policymaking are unlikely to be met

through the natural evolution of existing

materials information systems. However, the

analysis also indicates that increased Federal

commitment to such improvement through

one or more of the possible legisla -

tive/executive options will not by itself insure

that existing systems evolve to meet priority

needs. Regardless of the level of commitment,

additional organization and integration seems

essential.

115
CHAPTER V

B. LEGISLATIVE AND EXECUTIVE IMPLEMENTING OPTIONS

A number of options are available to Congress and the President for the provision of improved materials information and analysis in

accordance with the needs previously identified. This section describes the range of

legislative/executive options and discusses the

major advantages and disadvantages of each.

The focus is on executive and/or legislative action to provide improved materials information and analysis in supporting policy-level

decisionmaking. However, some actions include an important role for the private sector,

and some if not most of the improved information and analysis could be useful to the private

sector.

1. Evolution of Current Systems Without

Direct Action

A materials information “system” does currently exist, at least in a loose sense, as indicated by the survey and interviews. Many

kinds of materials data are collected by

numerous public and private sector entities

with varying reliability and completeness.

Based on these data, certain kinds of materials

information (summaries, analyses, and

forecasts) are available, although not always

readily accessible and frequently in noncompatible formats. Nonetheless, a system of sorts

does exist, especially for the handful of experts and specialists who know the parts of the

system well and can pull things together, at

least in their own minds.

The first option available to Congress and

the President is to do nothing, that is, to let the

current systems continue to evolve without

direct intervention. The essential question, of

course, is whether the current systems will improve quickly enough to achieve th e

capabilities.

a. Evolving Systems in the Federal

Government. The survey of Federal Government systems reveals that efforts are underway in several agencies to improve or upgrade

existing systems. However, the rate of

116

progress appears to be quite slow. For example, the Department of the Interior’s Bureau of

Mines has a Minerals Availability System

(MAS) in early stages of development. The

system now includes data on only a few commodities and is therefore not extensively used,

although the 5-year plan for MAS includes 32

minerals, In the Forest Service, Department of

Agriculture, existing data bases and analysis

techniques are being integrated into a forestry

information system, which is expected to provide more effective support for the Forest and

Rangeland Renewable Resources Act of 1974,

Likewise, in the Department of the Interior, a

Mineral Analysis and Policy System (MAPS)

is under development to expand data collection, analysis, and forecasting activities in

minerals-related areas, The Department of

Commerce, Bureau of Domestic Commerce, is

in the process of developing and implementing

an Early Warning System designed to (1)

forecast possible supply dislocations, (2)

analyze the impacts of such dislocations, and

(3) recommend policy options to avert or

mitigate such dislocations.

But despite these signs of progress, major

problems are identified in the survey of existing systems presented earlier. Overall, the

natural evolution of Federal Government

systems can be expected to lead to gradual improvement within agencies. However, little

improvement can be expected with regard to

the lack of effective integration of materials

supply and utilization information which must

cross agency lines.

b. Evolving Systems in State Government

and the ‘Private Sector. A few States (including Alaska, California, Illinois, and Oregon)

are developing fairly comprehensive information systems on some materials for parts of the

materials cycle, Yet in general, materials information systems at the State level are currently

not as well developed as at the Federal level

and by comparison are evolving slowly.

Survey results indicate that in the private
CHAPTER V

sector many of the larger firms in materials-related industries have developed their own information system on some parts of the

materials cycle. Many also have statistical and

analytical capabilities with regard to basic

materials trends affecting their own activities.

By comparison, smaller firms generally cannot

afford a substantial in-house effort. Some of

the larger firms are making efforts toward

upgrading their systems and introducing additional capabilities. But progress appears to be

slow, in part due to lack of confidence in

forecasting. inadequate conceptual frameworks for handling exogenous variables, incomplete data, and legal and competitive barriers to cooperation.

A few small private sector information service firms (e. g.. Battelle Memorial Institute,

Data Resources, Inc., and Chase Econometrics.

Inc. ) provide technical data, as well as referral

modelling and forecasting services. These

firms thus fill some of the gaps in the information systems of materials-related companies.

However, the natural evolution suggests a

centinuing mismatch between the information

needs of the private firms (and Government

agencies) and the data collection and analysis

techniques developed by the information service firms, universities, and “think tanks. ”

The evolution of current systems is unlikely

to 1) promote the most efficient and effective

governmental and private sector responses to

materials problems; 2) provide adequate data

and analysis for public and private sector

materials policy makers; and 3) solve the

problems of interagency information transfer

within the Federal Government and integration of materials supply and utilization information. Coordination and planning of

materials information activities between the

Federal and State governments and the private

sector are unlikely to improve substantially.

2. Legislative Branch Options Short of

New Authorizing Legislation

Congress has available a number of possible

options short of legislation to provide various

kinds of improved materials information.

a. Congressional Options To Provide Improved Materials Information Within the

Legislative Branch. Congress can act through

existing congressional offices and agencies

which already have a general mandate compatible, at least in part, with the needs for improved materials information. The major

possibilities here lie with the Congressional

Budget Office, the General Accounting Office.

the Congressional Research Service, and the

Office of Technology Assessment, all supported by the evolving congressional information system. These offices, along with the congressional committees, serve an important

function in filtering and translating data and

information into a policy analytical format

consistent with the needs of members of Congress.

The first possibility is action through the

Congressional Budget Office (CBO). The CBO

was established by the Congressional Budget

and Impoundment Act of 1974 to provide Congress with high-level analytical capability in

reference to the Federal budget and the relationships between allocations of resources

(through the budget) on the one hand, and national priorities and quality of life on the

other, The Act requires CBO to develop “a

detailed structure of national needs which

shall be used to reference all agency missions

and programs, ” and to study proposals for “ improving analytical and systematic evaluation

of the effectiveness of existing programs, and

developing techniques of noneconomic as well

as economic evaluation measures. ”

The second possibility is action by the

General Accounting Office. While CBO has

continuous responsibility for analysis of matters involving the budget, the GAO generally

becomes involved only at the specific request

of Congress, However, because of the high

priority of the energy -environment-resources

area, and the large number of related requests

from Congress, the GAO could assume an expanded role—particularly with regard to the

117
CHAPTERV

monitoring and validation of materials data.

Under the Legislative Reorganization Act of

1970, GAO is given the general responsibility

to review and analyze Government programs,

“including the making of cost-benefit studies, ”

which can be a useful technique in the

materials area.

Two other congressional agencies, the Congressional Research Service (CRS) and the

Office of Technology Assessment (OTA), may

also carry out activities related to new or improved materials information. The CRS maintains a group of materials specialists for briefing Congress on materials issues, keeping

track of materials-related legislation and

reports, and performing research in selected

materials area. Consistent with the Legislative

Reorganization Act of 1970, CRS is empowered to provide improved information

support to Congress, and could serve as a location for an expanded materials analytical

capability and/or a materials referral service,

The Office of Technology Assessment could

itself maintain a continuing role in the

materials information area, building on the expertise developed through this and other

materials assessments. In establishing OTA,

Congress recognized that “the present

mechanisms of the Congress do not and are

not designed to provide the legislative branch

with (adequate) information” on the “consequences of technological applications and

emerging national problems. ” Materials appears to be a national problem area to which

OTA can justifiably give a degree of continuing attention for some time to come.

Support of materials-related activities of the

offices described above can be provided by the

evolving congressional information systems.

Provision of computerized information support to Congress is shared primarily between

the House Administration Committee, the

Senate Rules and Administration Committee,

and the Library of Congress. As yet there is no

single unified system, but development has

progressed to the point that improvements in

CBO, GAO, CRS, and/or OTA materials-related analytical capabilities can likely be supported via the evolving congressional information systems. Computer terminals are already

available in a number of committee and member offices, with further expansion expected.

Efforts are underway to gradually enlarge the

range of computer-based support services

available to Congress for the provision of information in a wide range of areas, including

materials.

Possible advantages and disadvantages of

congressional actions to provide improved

materials information with in the legislative

branch are summarized in table V-1. While all

materials in format ion needs canno t

realistically be met within Congress, improvements within the legislative branch will

strengthen congressional capabilities and independence in materials policymaking, regardless of actions taken by the executive branch,

b. Congressional Options To Provide Improved Materials Information Via the Executive Branch. Congress has several options,

short of new authorizing legislation, in seeking

to provide improved materials information via

the executive branch. The most important of

these options includes the use of congressional

hearings, the exercise of oversight and investigative powers, and the possibility of congressional resolutions.

Through the hearing process—both substantive and appropriations—congressional

committees with relevant jurisdiction can encourage Federal executive agencies to take actions to provide improved materials information, e.g., with respect to data base discipline

and compatibility, improved forecasting

capability, and better coordination and integration.

Problem areas, such as materials information transfer within a particular agency or between two agencies, can become a focus for

special attention through oversight by congressional committees with relevant jurisdiction. An even stronger measure might involve

the use of the congressional investigative

power to obtain executive information as to

the inadequacies of the present materials data

and analysis, or (in an extreme case) to compel

118
CHAPTER V

Table V-1.—Possible Advantages and Disadvantages of Legislative

Branch Options Short of New Authorizing Legislation

Congressional Options to Provide Improved Materials information Within the

Legislative Branch

Advantages

Will strengthen congressional capabilities

in the materials area, regardless of actions taken by the executive branch.

Will afford Congress a somewhat higher

degree of independence in materials

policymaking.

May generate greater congressional confidence in materials data and analysis

since information will be screened and

interpreted by congressional offices instead of or in addition to the executive

agencies.

Disadvantages

May spread thin the resources of congressional offices.

Will not be sufficient for meeting all

materials information needs, some of

which require ongoing administrative

functions which are outside the

capabilities and role of Congress.

Congressional Options To Provide Improved Materials Information Via the

Executive Branch

Advantages

Will encourage or place pressure upon the

executive branch to improve materials

data and analysis.

Will bypass the difficult process of enacting new authorizing legislation.

May at least to some extent increase the

responsiveness of established materials

agencies.

Disadvantages

Will not normally be legally binding on the

executive branch.

May not ensure an effective executive

response,

Congressional Options To Provide Improved Materials lnformation Via the

Private Sector

Advantages Disadvantages

May encourage the private sector to im- May not be taken seriously by the private

prove materials information. sector.

May help give greater priority to materials May not ensure a private sector response

information activities in the private sec- sufficlent to meet priority information

tor. needs.

May help increase private sector involvement in and support for improving

materials information.

attendance of witnesses or submission of Finally, short of legislation, Congress can

documents deemed pertinent to these inade- also express its strong concerns about having

quacies. Such investigations may be justified better materials information and analysis

under congressional rules for holding ad- through a resolution, directed toward the exministrative agencies accountable for their ac- ecutive branch. However, since bills are

tivities or to lay the informational basis for preferred over resolutions in important matlegislation. ters, new authorizing legislation seems more

119
CHAPTER V

appropriate here. House, Senate, and joint

resolutions can additionally be used to implement improvements in legislative branch

materials information, that is, to state what the

internal policy of Congress shall be with

regard to the materials information area.

Possible advantages and disadvantages of

congressional options, short of new authorizing legislation, to provide improved materials

information via the executive branch are summarized in table V-1. While such options will

encourage the executive to improve materials

information and bypass the difficult legislative

process, they will not normally be legally binding and may not ensure an effective executive

response.

c. Congressional Options To Provide Improved Materials Information Via the Private Sector. Policy statements by individual

members of Congress and groups of Members

can help stimulate private sector efforts

toward provision of improved materials information, without enacting new authorizing

legislation, Beyond that, through hearings and

oversight in materials-related areas, Congress

can encourage Federal agencies to allocate

their resources flowing to the private sector in

accordance with the need for improved

materials information, under existing legislation in a wide range of materials-related areas,

Greater priority can be given to improving

materials information activities in the private

sector, including the establishment of centers

and institutes for materials information

research, development, and demonstration,

Possible advantages and disadvantages are

summarized in table V-1. While these options

may to some extent encourage the private sector to improve materials information and increase private sector involvement, they may

not insure a private sector response sufficient

to

3.

meet priority information needs.

Executive Branch Options Short of

New Authorizing Legislation

Another option is executive action, short of

new authorizing legislation but more than the

evolution of current systems, to provide improved materials information.

First, a Presidential proclamation or policy

statement—while not having the force of

law-can set an overall direction or thrust to

improving materials in formation. Next,

although the President’s power to issue executive orders has been restricted by Congress,

especially in regard to reorganization plans,

some materials information needs can be met

through executive and/or agency order. Examples include a materials referral service and

perhaps data base standardization. Third,

various specific improvements in current

materials information systems could be implemented via an OMB directive or bulletin.

Executive Options to Provide Improved Materials Information

Advantages I Disadvantages

May promote the greatest cooperation of May not stimulate the public debate

executive agencies while minimizing necessary to focus attention on

organizational disruptions. materials information.

May promote the involvement of business I May not provide an effective solution to

and Industry. materials information problems due to

I

limitations on executive actions. May draw upon the expertise of the private

sector in materials- data collection and I

May not generate sufficient congressional

analysis. support.

120
Finally, a somewhat different approach

would involve grants and contracts to the private sector without further legislation.

Federally supported materials research,

development, and demonstration support

programs, including energy conservation, environmental, and land use planning activities,

in the private sector could be adjusted through

executive action to aid in improving materials

information. Such adjustments could relate to:

(a) materials forecasting/modellin g

capabilities. (b) clearinghouse/referra l

capabilities in specialized areas of materials

i n formation, and (c) statistical/analytical

capabilities with respect to the cycle of

materials supply and utilization.

Possible advantages and disadvantages are

summarized in table V-2. Executive branch actions taken alone may promote cooperation

among executive agencies and the involvement of the private sector, but may not stimulate the public debate and generate the congressional support needed to focus sufficient

attention and resources on materials information problems.

CHAPTER V

4. Options Through Legislation

Up to this point, the legislative/executive

options discussed would be accomplished

within the existing systems and institutions,

However, any actions to implement a major

program from the standpoint of institutional

changes and/or substantial expenditure of

funds over an extended period of time will

generally require legislation in view of the

legal requirements, the level of resources involved, and political considerations, among

other factors. Legislation could be designed to

make current information systems more effective and efficient, and to implement the integrated capabilities by building on some or all

of the systems now scattered throughout the

Federal Government,

Possible advantages and disadvantages of

implementing the integrated capabi1ities

through Legislation are summarized in table

V-3. Legislation will permit a more comprehensive approach, will allow interested

parties to develop alternatives, and will help

assure wider participation in decision process.

Table V-3. Possible Advantages and Disadvantages of Options Through

Legislation

Advantages Disadvantages

Will permit a more comprehensive ap- May take longer than executive action due

preach than executive or congressional to delays in the legislative process.

action short of legislation. May stimulate a divisive political debate.

Will allow many interested groups and

organizations to develop alternative May cause greater disruption in the

plans for consideration by Congress. Federal bureaucracy and potential

resistance to change.

Will help assure wider participation in the

decision whether or not to create a new May raise expectations to unrealistic

or improved system. levels.

Will generate wider public awareness and

interest in materials information and related areas.

Will permit a more focused congressional

statement of purpose.

May actually speed up action if a sense of

urgency and widespread consensus is

established on the need and priority for

a new or improved system.

121
CHAPTER V

If a sense of urgency and widespread consen - since one function of political debate is to

sus is established, legislation may speed up ac- bring out a wide range of views and opinions.

tion, However, legislation could take longer,

C. ALTERNATIVE INFORMATION

t

In order to illustrate how the last option, aeons requiring new authorizing legislation,

might be implemented to improve the current

Federal materials information systems, three

alternative information systems approaches

were identified, The social, political, and other

impacts of the approaches are discussed in

chapter VII. All three approaches can achieve

the integrated capabilities, but with differing

degrees of effectiveness and at differing costs,

Consideration of the range of options for improving current Federal materials information

systems led to the identification of three basic

approaches for meeting the needs discussed in

chapter III.

. Approach A—Coordinated Systems

Evolution. This approach centers on the

use of a coordinating group to organize

activities of the current Federal systems

as they exist and are expected to develop

within the context of current 5 year plans,

Solely through coordination, an attempt

would be made to achieve the desired integrated capabilities. The various agencies would continue in their present

directions, but the coordinating function

would encourage increased communication and cooperation among them to promote greater effectiveness, This approach

involves only minimum, if any, organizational change. Existing agencies would be

assigned responsibility for functional requirements not now being performed, including the collection of data required for

the improvements, These activities are

also essential requirements for approaches B and C.

● Approach B—Directed, Step-By-Step

Upgrading of Existing Information

Systems. This approach is also based on

●

SYSTEMS APPROACHES

the use of Federal systems as they exis

and are expected to develop, but it Would

have an oversight function assigned to a

directing office, which may be an existing

or new agency. This office would closely

follow the development of all Federal

materials information systems and direct

and focus activity toward achieving the

desired integrated capabilities. The oversight office would determine the

resources needed, compare them with existing capabilities, and fill the gaps by

assuming responsibility itself or by

assigning it to other agencies, This approach could be implemented i n

numerous ways. To illustrate its flexibility, a development encompassing

three sequential steps is discussed.

Approach C—New Information System.

In contrast to the other approaches, this

approach envisions developing the integrated capabilities from the top down. A

strong centralized management group

would be established to direct the

program, It would determine wha t

facilities and services were needed and

how they should be implemented, making use of existing systems only where

they clearly met ultimate requirements.

To the extent that existing facilities

met requirements of the top-down plan,

they would be used. But, as compared

with approaches A and B, there would be

greater prerogative to acquire new

facilities and less mandate to stay with

existing systems of marginal use.

Table V-4 lists the major characteristics of

each approach.

In examining alternative approaches, there

are few basic options from which to choose:

122
CHAPTER V

Approach

Characteristics

Supports improved

capabilities

Meets materials information

policy needs

Design philosophy

Uses existing* Federal materials

information systems

Creates organization to

oversee operation of existing

systems

Creates organization to

establish new* information

systems

Provides the following new*

services:

Referral

Clearinghouse

Query management

Information exchange

(including standards)

Summary data base

Statistical services

Modeling services

Approach 1

Yes

Partially

Coordinated

evolvement of

existing systems

Yes

(Coordination

group only)

No

Maybe

Maybe

Maybe

Maybe

No

No

No

Directed improvements

to upgrade existing

systems

Yes

Yes

No

Yes

No

No

Yes

No

No

No

Yes

Yes

No

Yes

Yes

No

Yes

No

No

No

Approach 3

Yes

Yes

Top-down, requirements design-driven

to establish needed

system

Partially

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

● “Existing” includes planned growth or normal evolution; “new” involves improvements beyond that.

t New summary data base and analytical Services to Suoolement detailed data bases, statistical analyses, and

forecasts of existing system for c~itical materials and to-aid in the exchange of information among components

of the existing system.

$ Ail needed data collected, validated, and stored as part of new information system; necessary analytical SOrVices for system concept provided.

(a) one can improve cirtical parts of the present systems; (b) one can improve major parts

and add new parts to achieve the desired level

of performance; (c) or one can design a totally

new system to replace the existing systems.

Analysis of the existing information

systems shows that doing nothing is unlikely

to achieve the desired capabilities, Some of the

needed functional requirements are not met at

all and need to be added. Others need to be improved because materials information is not

managed so that it is sufficiently complete, accurate, current, standardized, and accessible.

Moreover, even if these individual deficiencies were corrected, overall performance

would still be inadequate without substantial

improvement. As noted in chapter III, the

functional requirements are highly interrelated, and there is a clear need to integrate

these functions so that data on supply and

utilization could be more readily exchanged

and analyzed.

123
CHAPTER V

In implementing the integrated capabilities

described in chapter 111, actions must be taken

to provide a range of necessary services.

Prospective users must have an awareness of

what data exists and how it can be accessed;

and they must have assurance that data obtained from different sources are consistently

standardized. They need to know what standards apply. They also need to know what

models are being used and what constraints

exist in using them. In short, they need to

know how to specify and obtain the “outputs”

they require. In theory, the components that

perform these services—locating data ,

establishing standards, handling queries,

etc--coould all be implemented at the same

time; moreover, they could be completely integrated and highly automated. In practice,

however, it is more likely that the integrated

capabilities will be added over time, and the

desired level of services will be attained in

steps. Initially, many steps will be ac -

complished manually, e.g., assisting users in

locating information. Later, these services

might be accomplished using more sophisticated, automated techniques.

Considering the broad range of uses to

which the integrated capabilities could be applied, the following set of basic information

services have been identified. All three

systems approaches provide the services;

however, they achieve them in different ways,

on different time schedules. and to different

levels of performance:

. Materials Referral Service.—This service

would provide visibility and accessibility

to needed information for policy makers.

. Materials Information Exchange Service.—This service would apply standards

within the entire Federal information

system, ranging from the development of

a common vocabulary to be used in the

select ion, analysis, and reporting of

materials information to the development

of common data formats and data handling procedures to be incorporated within each existing Federal information

system. Such materials information exchange service, interfacing with all components of the existing Federal information system, would facilitate data exchange and would accomplish the

meaningful interchange of data inherent

to the integrated capabilities envisioned.

. Clearinghouse Service,—This service

would be utilized to help users obtain

answers to clear-cut, factual questions.

The Clearinghouse would not provide

analytical support. It would only obtain

necessary serial publications and reports

from the existing Federal materials information systems and forward them to the

user.

. Summary Data Base Service.—This service would collect required information

on supply and utilization at the appropriate level of aggregation from the existing

Federal information systems. It would

also handle any format conversions and

data translations that were required to include the information in the summary

data base.

. Query Management Service.—This service would help users obtain answers to

more complex questions. It would access

the summary data base for data, prepare

statistical summaries showing historical

trends, and possibly even run models on

selected data. It would be staffed with

materials specialists and economists who

would work with users to help interpret

their questions and obtain answers.

. Routine Statistical Services, -These services would be responsive to both periodic

and one-time user requests, possibly issuing a semiannual or annual publication of

summary statistics for all critica l

materials. They might also include the

capability for analyzing summary historical data to answer specific questions,

such as “What trends are developing in

the domestic use of copper?” These kinds

of services are needed to interpret and

124
CHAPTER V

display trends in critical materials to alert

policy makers to potential scarcity situations.

. •Modeling Services.-These services

would address “what if” type questions

in response to user requests. They might

include issuing a semiannual or annual

forecast of potential shortages using the

index of scarcity concept discussed in

chapter 111. They might also provide

answers to special requests for running

appropriate models on materials situations. These analytical services would be

particularly needed by users who do not

have their own facilities, for example,

Congress. The interpretation of the data,

the setting of assumptions, the selection

of parameters. etc. would be performed

by the user’s own staff.

These services are not independent but are

supportive of each other, For example.

establishment of the materials information exchange service would facilitate the establishment of materials referral service; establishment of the summary data base service would

facilitate statistical services,

The following sections further detail each approach, not as a recommended evolution, but

as illustrative of the ways they might reasonably be implemented.

1. Approach A: Coordinated Systems

Evolution

This approach permits the current materials

information systems to continue to evolve

without a central group having direc t

authority over them, However. a coordinating

group, probably comprised of representatives

of the institutions now operating the systems,

would guide the evolution. The coordinating

group would establish common objectives and

clearly delineate gaps and overlaps in institutional responsibilities, which could be corrected through executive directives (perhaps

also with new legislation), Clear and separate

responsibilities for information management

of a particular class of materials to achieve

specific functional requirements could thus be

sought. However. without a central group with

a measure of direct authority overseeing the

improvements (as included in approaches B

and C), this evolution could vary in degree by

functional requirements or by class of

materials, since the evolution would likely be

driven by the latest perceived problems (for

example, new fuel shortages) or other external

influences,

This approach is most susceptible to

redirection of institutional resources to address the short-range problems pertaining to a

particular agency’s mission. This could

adversely impact the ability of existing

systems to achieve the basic and supplemental

functional requirements within reasonable

time. It is important to note that current institutions have recognized the information

management problems within the purview of

their own institutional missions and have initiated plans to improve their information

systems. Both short and long-range improvement plans are in place to upgrade information

systems. Thus, there is a substantial base from

which development evolution could start.

Some of the plans upon which this approach

could be based are described as follows.

a. Department of Interior. The Department

of the Interior’s Minerals Analysis and

Policy System (MAPS), announced in

September 1974, has two projects related

directly to the management of materials

information:

. Expanded data collection and analysis

of domestic and international sources

of critical minerals and materials, including appraisal of existing and potential ore deposits, processing facilities,

transportation systems, labor supplies,

and a variety of geologic, economic,

and institutional data on operating

125
CHAPTER V

mines which produce key mineral

commodities. Paramarginal mineral

deposits will be included to assess supplies at various price levels. Hypothetical resources will be considered to ensure identification of materials presently convertible to reserves.

● Expansion of the Department of the Interior’s forecasting capabilities, as an

improved guide to informed U.S.

Government decisionmaking on both

domestic and world mineral markets.

Several different forecasting methods

will be used in order that one will serve

as an accuracy check on others in making appropriate long- and short-term

forecasts which can assist in the orderly functioning of the market system.

The Office of Minerals Policy Development (OMPD). the U.S. Geological

Survey (USGS), and the Bureau of Mines

(BOM) were assigned major roles in this

effort. The OMPD Report, Critical

Materials: Commodity Action Analyses

(March 1975), is an analysis of four supply/demand problems in critical imported

materials. This study did not use data

directly from an automated data base of

supply/demand; however, as mineral

reserves data are added to the Minerals

Availability System (M AS). this

capability is planned.

b. Department of Agriculture. The Forest

Service is developing a long-term plan

under the Forest and Rangeland Renewable Resources Planning Act of 1974 (P.L.

93-378) that will consolidate and develop

its use of data bases both to manage the

national forests and provide supply and

demand information on timber on public

and private lands. including:

● Resource estimates of timber;

● Trends in consumption and prices;

● Prospective demand. supply, and price

outlook to 2020; and

. International trade and resources.

Further development of the already advanced Forest Service Information

System will consolidate and standardize

the timber data banks and provide more

extensive statistics, referrals, and reports.

c. Federal Energy Administration. The Integrated Petroleum Reporting System Task

Force, with representation from the major FEA offices currently operating or

using petroleum reporting systems, was

formed to improve petroleum reporting

systems in order to meet requirements

imposed as a result of new legislation,

Specifically, its goals were to minimize

the gaps and remove redundancies and

inconsistencies in data and to establish a

cost-effective way to alleviate the reporting burden on the industry. As a result,

the implementation of the Petroleum

Reporting System Phase I (PRS) has recently been initiated within the constraint of using existing data elements.

Further upgrading of this system is

planned.

FEA has also established the National

Energy Information Center (NEIC) in

response to a requirement for a national

clearinghouse for energy information,

The Center serves all sectors of the

materials community by:

● Responding to inquiries;

● Referring to data sources;

● Providing information analysis and

research;

● Maintaining an energy library; and

● Producing indexes, bibliographies,

periodic and special technical reports.

FEA is developing a computerized

Federal Energy Information Locator

System (FEILS) to provide information on

the existence, location, and characteristics of energy or energy-related data

to a detailed element level. At the present

time the system contains entries of the

260 energy programs identified by an interagency task force. Summaries of data

programs have been validated by source

agencies for completeness and accuracy.

126
CHAPTER V

Once the user finds the location of the information that he desires, he can then request the assistance of the National

Energy Information Center to obtain that

information.

These activities are illustrative of those taking place which will significantly improve

materia1s inform at i on m a n age m en t

capabilities to address the basic functions and,

ultimately. the supplemental functions.

There are two types of deficiencies that

need to be corrected if the existing materials

information systems are to accomplish the

basic functions. First, some functions being

addressed by some institutions are not being

performed adequately; they could be corrected

by directing each responsible agency to perform the needed function (such as improving

resources and reserves estimation) in the manner required. The second deficiency involves

developing a capability for basic functions

which are not currently being performed, such

as monitoring recoverable materials and

assessing price impacts.

In approach A a coordinating group would

evaluate which basic functions are already

being performed by each institution and would

assess the capability to perform the functions

in the manner required, Institutional agreements would result in new directives within

each agency to remove its own inadequacies,

without disrupting other missions being performed. Also to be considered by the coordinating group would be the question of what

agencies were best equipped to carry out or

develop the missing functions. For example,

the Bureau of Mines already monitors information on the materials cycle for the nonfuel

minerals class. While an agency could be

established or missioned in the Department of

Commerce to collect missing elements,

responsibility for monitoring of all these

pieces might also be considered a BOM mission. Because of the economic considerations

involved in the basic functions, particularly

the supply/demand analysis leading to a

calculation of an index of scarcity and its subsequent price impacts, the Office of Minerals

Policy Development might also be involved in

BOM in integrating these functions for that

class of nonfuel minerals.

This logic could also be applied to other

classes of critical materials, and a single existing institution could be given the integration

responsibility for that material or class of

materials. In this manner, a coordinator might

be established for each critical material or

class of materials to ensure that the required

system interconnections between functions

were achieved. For example, the Department

of Agriculture might continue to be responsible for both the forest products/pape r

materials class and the nonfood agricultural

materials class. In order to do so, it might obtain some needed data from the Department of

Commerce. The Federal Energy Administration might be responsible for integrating the

mineral fuel class of materials, obtaining

needed data from both the Bureau of Mines

and the Department of Commerce. In fact. its

relationship with BOM for mineral fuels might

be similar in some respects to its relationship

with OMPD for nonfuel minerals. Other

classes representative of processed materials

might be handled by the Department of Commerce. These assignments would be very similar to current institutional responsibilities for

these materials,

Basic information services such as the

materials referral service and clearinghouse

service could also be implemented within this

approach. By mutual agreement. an existing

office or agency would take on the responsibility. Once again, these services could be

subdivided by class of material so that possibly

five or more such services would be provided.

(FE A already runs a referra1 a n d

clearinghouse service for energy. ) However. it

might be more difficult to fully accomplish the

services (particularly the clearinghouse service) in this approach because access to data

would cross institutional boundaries and

would require close cooperation among the existing institutions and users,

1,27
CHAPTER V

Approach A could, in time, achieve the improved capabilities that might meet several of

the needs identified in chapter III and might

well improve the data available in regular

publications. However, it probably would not

meet all the needs of decisionmakers who

want timely access to comprehensive, aggregated materials information presented in convenient, easy-to-understand formats.

2. Approach B: Directed, Step-by-Step

Upgrading of Existing Information

Systems

Approach B, which also makes extensive

use of the existing materials information

systems, has two characteristics which distinguish it from approach A: (1) oversight

authority by a single agency, and (2) a step-bystep development philosophy involving a continuous evolution and reevaluation of ultimate

objectives.

In approach B. a specific agency would be

given oversight authority for all existing

Federal materials information systems. This

agency would be charged to understand the

operations of all information systems and

would be given authority to ensure that the

systems supported established governmentwide objectives, improving them as required.

Various, alternatives for the location of this

agency and its authority are discussed in

chapter VI. At a minimum, it would have permanent staff, budgets, and authority to access

the existing systems, understand their operations, establish plans and budgets for needed

improvements, and ensure their implementation. The authority could be increased, depending on the institutional arrangement

selected, to cover budget control and organizational control over the existing systems.

The intent of approach B is to utilize, and

upgrade as necessary, the existing information

systems to provide the functional requirements. However, the functional requirements

do not have to be used initially, and additional

functions may be determined in the future.

This approach would establish an intermediate set of functional requirements, ensuring

that the final set was not precluded in any

way. For example, the functional requirements dealing with basic supply and utilization could be initially limited to domestic data,

and later expanded to international data as it

became more available. The existing systems

would be upgraded to handle these requirements in the manner required, but they would

be built to allow for expansion to include international data and disaggregated data at

lower levels when the data was available. In

this manner, the decision to proceed toward

implementing the integrated capabilities could

be reevaluated in the light of implementation

experience, modifying plans based on interactions with the users and reexamining the

costs/benefits. Once the immediate functional

requirements were identified, their implementation could be accomplished in discrete steps

so that tangible, useful support would be given

to the users as soon as possible, concurrent

with the existing materials information

systems services.

Similarity, the basic information services

delineated early in this chapter could be implemented in a series of steps, some at the outset and others added later. There is great flexibility in approach B; moreover, the final decisions do not have to be made at the outset,

Congress could decide which services it would

like to see in the first step; the oversight

organization could then implement them,

monitor their operations, and recommend

services to be provided in the second step.

Based on that review, some of the services

could be discontinued, and new one s

established in the third step, etc.

As an example of how approach B might

evolve, a sequential three-step implementation of the basic services is described below,

Clearly this is illustrative only, and many

variations are possible,

a. Step 1 : Materials Referral Service

(MRS). Step 1 would establish the oversight

128
CHAPTER V

Figure V–1. Approach B, Step l—Materials Referral Service

Current Materials Information Systems

Alternate Route for

Knowledgeable Users

. Responses

\

\

\

agency to move existing systems in the direction of realizing the integrated capabilities.

This agency would establish (1) the materials

referral

sources

and (2)

servic e

element

service to make existing information

and services visible and accessible,

the materials information exchange

o develop a materials thesaurus. data

dictionary, and master directory for

establishing standardization throughout the

materials community. The materials referral

service (MRS) would be a focal point for

developing and retaining information on the

existing materials data and analytical services,

)$() .(,7 n ( ) - 77 - III

Data

Collection

the key people and organizations involved in

the materials field, the kinds of information

required, and the spectrum of materials

problems being addressed. Figure V-1 is a

simplified diagram of this step.

The principal responsibility

would be to respond to requests

information. Its initial response

of the

for ma

would

MRS

terials

be to

direct the user to the individual or organization most likely able to provide the answers or

develop the required information. Subsequently, MRS could direct the user to a known

129
CHAPTER V

source of the data or advise him that the data

does not exist. For complex requests, there

could be more than one individual or organization involved in developing the answers. The

MRS analyst would work with the user to

structure the request into component parts

which could be handled by each separate

source selected, In addition, the user’s analysis

of the results, when obtained, could initiate a

new request to MRS to identify an expert to

assist in interpreting the results.

In support of this principal responsibility,

several major activities could be performed by

the

●

●

●

●

●

130

MRS. It would:

Create and maintain files on existing information systems, their data bases and

analytical services, and key people involved in the materials community. The

output of the activity would be a

materials master directory;

Retrieve and produce results from these

secondary files in response to user requests;

Maintain a controlled set of materials

keywords as a standard means of identifying primary sources and individuals.

The output of this activity would be a

materials thesaurus;

Develop and compile statistical information concerning the types of questions

asked, the most frequently referenced

data and individuals, and the adequacies

of the results as expressed by the users of

the service. This feedback to improve the

referrals would also prove useful in

determining the requirements for steps 2

and 3; and

Produce a periodic report to the materials

community which would list the information contained in existing information

systems. This would result in feedback on

new developments, additiona l

capabilities in existing organizations or

services, and correction of the existing information. The output of this activity

would be a materials catalog which

would be the principal means of keeping

the MRS reference information files updated.

The main activity of the MRS would be to

use the secondary information collected in the

materials directory to answer user’s questions

by directing them to the proper source. For example, the question of how much coal was

provided in the continental United States in

1974 might be answered directly from a

published report, Using the materials directory, a MRS analyst would direct the user to this

report. In many instances, the MRS analyst

would have to provide assistance to users to

ensure that their questions are processed as intended. For example, if a question on 1974

domestic coal production were asked in January 1975, the MRS analyst would not yet have

had the pertinent published report and would

have directed the user to consult various

periodic reports for each of the States and to

add the production figures himself. If the

December 1974 report were not published and

the figures for that month were available only

in a particular office, the MRS analyst would

have directed the user to call an individual to

obtain them. A record of all requests and questions, whether answered or not, would be kept

for use in analyzing MRS responsiveness. If

possible, a feedback loop would be established

to begin to evaluate whether the user was

satisfied. A feedback from the cited references

would also be useful to assist in determining

whether they could respond adequately.

The MRS would monitor its interactions

with users to determine:

●

●

●

●

●

The kinds of questions asked most frequently,

The staff skills required to obtain

satisfactory answers to user queries,

The types of questions which remained

unanswered,

The specific materials most frequently

referenced,

The distribution of queries across the
user groups (executive, legislative,

general public), and

. The existing agencies or facilities with

unique competence or superior data

sources in various fields relating to

materials,

This information would be used to determine primary data needed for the MRS

reference files. Once users found the required

source of information, they would return

directly to that source as needed. However,

new users with the same questions would use

the MRS. as would past users for new queries.

The MRS might evolve through several

stages of automation as its data files grew and

the number of users and materials sources increased. First, a manual operation could be

used to collect all published indexes to

materials data, qualified people, published

thesauri, and keyword lists to assist in providing the references needed, Analysts answering

telephone inquiries might work mostly from

printed reference sources, such as lists. technical publications and reports, and abstracts, but

would also draw on their knowledge of the

materials field. Each MRS analyst would be

responsible for maintaining awareness of

publications, existing data, and experts in his

area of interest.

A master directory to materials data sources

would serve as the principal new reference

tool for the MRS. Producing this directory,

promulgating its use, and keeping track of its

usefulness to MRS users would be a continu -

ing MRS responsibility. The master directory

might be developed using off-line batch operations at an established computer center with

text processing capabilities. The directory

would be published and distribute d

throughout the materials community for feedback to assist in upgrading existing entries and

adding new sources of data and expertise. The

master directory would provide the following

information:

. The various data sources in existence,

● Their locations.

●

●

●

●

●

CHAPTER V

The people who maintain them and control access to them.

How they can be contacted,

The form in which information derived

from these data sources is disseminated.

The currency of the data.

The reliability y of the data,

Any special analytical

formed on the data at the

tion.

In compiling this directory,

and

functions perparticular locause would be

made of the many indexes to data sources

already in existence, such as the Federal

Energy Administration’s index of energy

materials. Information already available in existing directories and indexes would be incorporated in the MRS materials directory. Other

information would be obtained by new surveys. This compilation of data sources would

be followed by an analysis to identify data

duplications, omissions. and terminological

differences.

It should be noted that duplication of data or

data resources is not always undesirable in information systems; it can be used to advantage

in maintaining validity and accuracy (through

cross-checking) and also in providing alternative access to data.

Following compilation and analysis. the information in the master directory would be

formatted to meet the requirements of MRS

users, with uniform terminology and crossreferences for specific materials (e. g.,

aluminum), classes of materials (e. g., nonferrous metals), and phases in the materials cycle

(e.g., extraction, recycling). Careful control

would have to be exercised over any changes

to terminology and arrangement: without such

control the usefulness of the directory would

diminish rapidly. This formatting could be

handled manually or with computer support,

using time available at an existing computer

facility,

The types of activities involved in assembling a master directory also constitute the

131
CHAPTER V

first phase in the development of a materials

thesaurus to establish a uniform vocabulary

for the materials community. The usefulness

of the thesaurus would be enhanced if the data

sources and terminology used by trade associations, private industry, and the universities

were reflected in its compilation. The analysts

in MRS would consolidate separatel y

published thesauri and keyword lists as a

materials thesaurus. This would be published

for use in the materials community, with

periodic revisions planned.

The MRS analysts would then be working

from their two major sources, the master

directory and the materials thesaurus supported by the MRS internal data on queries

and references cited. At this point, after more

information on data sources had become

available in the MRS and secondary data collection had taken place, it might become

necessary to compile a dictionary of primary

data elements occurring in the many data

bases maintained by the existing institutional

agencies. The dictionary would include the

names of the data elements, the larger context

in which they are used, their format, source,

validity, and status. The data element dictionary on the data processing level would be

linked to the materials thesaurus on the

human level.

As reliance on the MRS grew, it is likely

that more complex queries would be asked

and more sophisticated responses required.

The master directory would be updated with

additional references as more critical materials

were added to the list to be covered. Updating

the indexes and bibliographic references

would continue by processing changes and

additions to the secondary files at a computer

service center. The retrieval of thes e

references and production of responses,

however, could then be performed at a video

terminal. This would improve response time

and allow analysts to browse through the secondary files for more accurate references. The

consolidated thesaurus might be available on

line to assist in developing more comprehensive searches for the users and in selecting

keywords for indexing new material data

sources, organizations, and individuals.

Statistics on terminology and references

would be produced automatically as a

byproduct of the terminal sessions, There

would still be a requirement, however, to have

the users and referenced individuals feed back

their evaluation of the query results.

At this stage the computer would likely be

filling a major role in the operation of the

MRS, relieving the MRS staff of many

laborious tasks and allowing them to handle

more thorough searches of voluminous files

with shorter response time, It is in this stage of

development that the MRS would be somewhat different from the referral capabilities

available within existing Federal information

systems. The current referral services can

direct the requester to an organization or an

individual who will have data of a generic

type, such as for petroleum; it might even be

able to tell him that FEA has production

statistics on petroleum. However, the MRS

would be able to tell the requester that FEA

has an automated data base on petroleum

called PRS which contains the specific data

element such as producer, name, location,

amount refined, amount stored, etc. It is this

capability that would make the materials

referral service so beneficial to all users.

b. Step Z: Clearinghouse Service and

Materials Information Exchange Service.

Step 2 in this illustrative sequence would

establish the clearinghouse service to index

and abstract needed and unavailable materials

information and to provide dissemination

capabilities to users. The development of the

materials information exchange service would

continue. The materials thesaurus, data element dictionary, and master directory would

be needed for both the materials referral service and clearinghouse service to identify the

sources of materials information, the types of

data contained in those sources, and the

vocabulary

mation for

use would

throughout

to be used in indexing this inforsearch and retrieval. A secondary

be to encourage their adoption

the Federal system and the private

132
CHAPTER V

Figure V–2. Approach B, Step 2—Clearinghouse and Materials Information Exchange Services

Users

Alternate Route for and

Knowledgeable Users

/ \ /

Questions Referral and

Responses Clearinghouse

(Factual

Answers)

sector to facilitate data exchange and usage.

The standardization of data formats and data

handling procedures is a formidable and

lengthy task; it need not be completed before

proceeding to step 3. Figure V–2 is a simplified

block diagram of this step.

The clearinghouse service is an extension of

the materials referral service. In addition to

keeping indexe s or references to existing

sources of materials information and analytical sources, it would collect, abstract, and index primary materials data in order to be

responsive to user requests. The use of this

service might be restricted to those reports of

interest to policy makers which were not

available in other retrievable information

systems. For example, there are indications

that reports developed in response to one-time

requests, serial publications, and R&D reports

do not appear in searchable data files or take

too long to get there. The clearinghouse service could be designed to address this problem

immediately. A knowledgeable staff member

could review the report and prepare a special

bibliographic record (reference). possibly accompanied by a description or abstract which

would serve as a pointer or index to the full

results. In this manner, the clearinghouse staff

members could attempt to answer simple factual questions by providing the user with data,

the abstract or the full publication, acting as

the connection between the user and the

source. The following activities would be added to those covered under materials referral

service:

Ž An indexing and abstracting activity for

133
CHAPTER V

materials information not currently

covered by available commercial or

Government services, and

. The development and maintenance of a

materials information dissemination activity,

Another activity of the clearinghouse service would be to keep track of what specific

data were located to answer a user’s question,

These results would aid in determining the appropriate aggregation level for the data being

collected.

There are various stages of development or

sophistication that the clearinghouse service

might attain. Each would offer policy makers

varying degrees of responsiveness. In stage 1,

the staff could handle the abstracting, indexing, and searching activities using the computer, as in the advanced stage of MRS. It

could have computer support in organizing

and listing the references, abstracts, and

keywords (thesaurus), as well as in searching

for and retrieving the correct reference or

abstract for display on a video terminal. With

the increased volume of references and the

addition of abstracts, the computer might be

essential to maintain responsiveness. Preparation of the references and abstracts could be a

manual operation. Later, an interactive, online

indexing and abstracting capability could be

added to the the basic retrieval and production

function of the MRS. This capability would

assist the staff analyst in preparing changes

and additions to the secondary files, allowing

him to handle a larger volume more efficiently. In addition. the analyst could be able

to use the video terminal to gain access to

other online materials bibliographic/abstract

data bases—such as the National Technical Information Service (NTIS), Defense Documentation Center (DDC), and Smithsonian Scientific Information Exchange (SSIE)-either by

subscription or by permission. The analyst

could then browse through data bases to see

what appropriate information was available

for reference purposes. (The National Energy

Information Center has access to 30 different

134

energy-related data bases which can be

searched by terminal, ) In this manner, the

clearinghouse analyst would have access to all

major reference/abstract sources pertinent to

materials. Use of the computer could allow

him to search these sources quickly and

thoroughly for references in answer to a user’s

question.

Step 2 might also address the problem of

data compatibility among components of the

existing information systems. Standardized

data attributes and terminology relating to

specific classes of materials could be imposed

in order to improve data flow and communication among the many organizations collecting,

disseminating. and analyzing materials information. This discipline would be imposed by

directives by the oversight organization and

monitored to ensure compliance. Standardization

Ž

●

●

●

●

●

●

could involve some or all of the following:

Data descriptions,

Data formats,

Classification designations,

Data attributes,

Data collection techniques,

Technical terminology, and

Units of measure.

To enhance compatibility, inconsistencies

would also have to be resolved with respect to

insufficient knowledge of data accuracy and

validity, The data elements dictionary and the

materials thesaurus (started in step 1) would

be the basic instruments for recording the

varying data standards within the existing

system. Analysis of the uses would yield criteria for determining the appropriate scope of

the standardization effort. Once the standards

have been established, all agencies responsible

for collection, management, analysis, or output of materials information would be required to adhere to them.

Two major considerations apply to such a

standardization effort, increasing compatibility while minimizing disruption,
Theoretically, one could require that scientists

and technicians in the field adopt a new technical vocabulary, as well as new methods of

data collecting and reporting. Such an approach, however, would likely be needlessly

disruptive. Every effort would be made to

resolve ambiguities and inconsistencies

through the judicious use of computerized

translation or conversion programs. Indeed,

just recording the different uses of the same

data among the components of existing

systems would go a long way toward helping

users and managers of materials information.

The standardization effort envisioned

would require an implementation plan that

would have to cover:

●

●

●

●

●

●

Information collection.

Definition and review,

Development and installation,

Operations and maintenance.

Feedback and modification, and

Audit and control.

A multidisciplined team, preferably including representation from the private sector,

might be set up to develop specific procedures

and an overall plan and organization to ensure

orderly development. Information regarding

requirements, current exchange problems,

current data flow, and current standards and

conventions would have to be collected and

analyzed. Priorities would then be set, and an

interactive definition and review cycle begun.

Organization impacts would be assessed and

the necessary organizational support acquired.

In a similar undertaking the Canadian Department of Energy, Mines, and Resources began a

project to identify sources of geoscience data

(i.e., original observations and measurements).

Because of the large number of documents involved, their wide physical distribution, and

heterogeneous organization and reporting

structures, a decentralized, cooperative approach was adopted. Canadian geoscience

agencies were asked to voluntarily index

documents published or held by each agency,

CHAPTER V

with the results to be incorporated into a computer-based index by the Canada Center for

Geoscience Data. Over 40,000 titles from 1 0

agencies have been indexed in detail and consolidated into the Canadian Index to Geoscience Data, Consistency and vocabulary control are maintained through a thesaurus of

over 5,000 geology keywords under direction

of a committee of the contributing agencies.

After years of work, good coverage now exists

for Ontario, Saskatchewan, Quebec, Newfoundland, Yukon, and Northwest Territories.

Completion of Federal and Provincial Government documents is expected to take about 4

more years, It should be emphasized that this

effort involved only the data for resources.

Many activities normally carried out by the

referral and clearinghouse services would

derive benefits from the improved compatibility introduced into the information

system. The staff could use video or hard-copy

terminals to review pertinent sections of the

materials thesaurus and data element dictionary (both of which would have been standardized and cross-referenced appropriately),

They could also review the master directory,

as well as other secondary files created by the

referral and clearinghouse services. This, in

turn, could provide faster and more comprehensive searches for users. Dissemination

of materials information could then be carried

out systematically on the basis of user profiles

submitted to the MRS specifically for that purpose. Regular (batch) searches could be made

on new primary and secondary materials data

and the results forwarded to users in hardcopy form.

The enhanced information capabilities of

both the referral and clearinghouse services

could also enable the staff to produce and update special indexes to its growing data

sources. Very likely these indexes would be

specifically designed to allow quick answers to

frequently asked questions. With the growing

emphasis on in-house information processing

capability, there might well be an increasing

need for information specialists who could

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CHAPTER V

perform and direct the indexing and abstracting tasks essential to the whole process of

transforming and transferring information. As

the volume of incoming materials data increased, the information specialists would implement automatic indexing procedure s

coupled with automated (batch or online)

retrieval. Similar procedures have been implemented in existing systems, but their effectiveness depends greatly on control over

vocabulary; improved effectiveness could be

achieved through the standardized materials

thesaurus. Effectiveness would also depend

greatly on the competence of the designers

who would approximate complex semantic

relationships through very simple data processing techniques. Fortunately, considerable

experience has already been gained with

retrieval methods of this kind that have been

used successfully in systems dealing with

scientific and technical information. Furthermore, this simple (essentially unformatted)

approach to text retrieval is not incompatible

with a natural English language query,

c. Step 3: Summary Data Base and

Statistical Services. Step 3 in the illustrative

sequence would establish the summary data

base service. Pertinent data, as identified

through experience with users in steps 1 and 2,

might be requested from each information

system and placed into a centralized data base.

The existing systems would have to convert

the data to the prescribed format and send it to

the oversight organization on a periodic basis

to keep it current. Statistical services could be

added to supplement the statistics prepared by

the existing information systems. As envisioned they would be aimed at providing

summary information to the Congress and the

public on the status of critical materials. The

centralized data base would also be available

to support specific analyses by an authorized

user, Congress, the executive branch, and the

public.

Having established the materials referral

service, expanded it to include a clearinghouse

service, and introduced a level of standardization procedures, the existing services might

136

then be further augmented through aggregation of data and additional data processing

support. Major attention in this third step is

seen to be centered on access to analytical

tools. Whereas the efforts of steps 1 and 2

would have concentrated on identifying and

analyzing data sources, step 3 would provide a

summary data base comprising the inventory

and economics data on the most frequently

referenced critical materials. With this summary data, users could apply their own

analytical capabilities to study the effects of

policy alternatives. The summary data base

would be built from data currently available

within existing information systems, Having

established data compatibility, chances of

misuse or misrepresentation of data collected

for the summary data base would be reduced,

and new opportunities for effective interagency data exchange would be created. Improved

data processing support would allow users to

take full advantage of these opportunities,

Figure V–3 is a simplified diagram of this step,

The materials referral service an d

clearinghouse service described in steps 1 and

2 would be expanded to provide a full query

management service. The summary data bank

and the secondary indexes would be available

for analytical use by executive, congressional,

or private organizations. Alternatively, an

analytical capability, in the form of support

tools such as statistical analysis packages,

might be developed as part of the center’s own

organization.

Step 3 thus provides for the following additional services:

●

●

●

●

Query management service,

Summary data-base service,

Statistical services and optional modeling

services, and

Data processing support services,

The query management service would be an

extension of the clearinghouse service to enable it to handle complex user requests for the
CHAPTER V

Figure V–3. Approach B, Step &Summary Data Base and Statistical Services

I I

-

Alternate Route

for Knowledgeable

Users

I I

Users

summary data base service and statistical service. A staff of specialists knowledgeable in

economics and materials-related areas would

be needed to assist the staff information

analysts in analyzing and answering user requests.

Based on the experience gained in monitoring the operation of steps 1 and 2, the oversight

organization, having overall responsibility for

accomplishing the upgrading of existing

systems, would know the most frequently

asked questions, referenced sources, levels of

data aggregation, other user requirements, and

user satisfaction with the referenced sources.

Were a decision made to proceed to step 3. the

oversight organization could then use this information to structure the summary data base

that would be operated under its control, Participating institutions would be directed to

send specified data in specified formats for inclusion in this data base. They would also be

charged to periodically update the data by forwarding changes. As the illustrative evolution

137
CHAPTER V

of approach 2 is here envisioned, this should

not be a significant burden on the agencies

since they would have information management systems with the capability to produce

special files. If they did not, a program would

have to be developed to accomplish the conversion.

The summary data base is not intended to

hold detailed data. Provisions would have to

be made to prevent it from growing too large.

Explicit purging provisions could b e

established to ensure that obsolete or unused

data were removed from the data base. In fact,

the design of this summary data base would

involve a trade-off between too much data at

the summary level and too many accesses to

the detailed data bases. Since no practical

summary data base could contain all the data

that a policy maker might need, continued access to the existing individual Federal information systems would still be required.

In terms of the staffing required to operate

the illustrative summary data base and statistical services, commodity specialists, subject

matter analysts, economists, and information

analysts would work together to produce both

periodic and special reports requested by

users. Query management specialists would

work with these specialists to develop the

form of the report, the resources required, and

the schedule for completion, Depending on the

user, there might be a fee for these services. If

existing procedures or models were available

within the existing information systems to

perform the required processing in support of

the analysis, then the analyst would schedule

the processing. He would check to see whether

the correct data were available for the run. If it

were not, he would obtain the needed data

from the summary data base or the existing information source, whichever was appropriate,

and forward it to the organization that had the

model. This transfer of data would be accomplished via hard copy or computer media

(magnetic tape, card deck). If new procedures

or models were needed, the analyst would see

what resources were needed to develop these

items. He might then schedule this activity

through direct contact with either the private

sector or Government institutions. It is also

possible that standard, available statistical

packages or modeling languages would allow

the MRS analyst to develop the tool himself

and then process the appropriate data.

The data processing services, to support

these activities, would involve the operation

and maintenance of all digital computing

equipment, keyboarding devices, terminals,

and other media device s (microfiche,

transmission equipment, graphics equipment)

needed to support the other services described.

This responsibilit y would include the following software used by the analysts and

programmers:

. Operating system,

. Data base system,

. Data communications system,

. High-level programming languages,

. Utility support package,

. Scientific and statistical support

packages,

. Modeling languages (optional),

. Materials and economic models (optional),

. Text processing system, and

. Online interactive terminal languages.

Detailed statistics would be obtained for all

activities. Gathering these statistics would

likely require little additional effort by the

staff since the data would be generated and

collected as a byproduct of the various processing activities and stored as part of the

summary data base, Management could then

view specific items by request. Exceptional

and unusual activities in any part of the

system would be noted and reported immediately to the data and/or security manager,

The routines used for materials data analysis

would also be used to support internal

management and security.

In summary, the enhanced services accomplished through approach B would provide

138
several benefits for users and participating

agencies:

. Existing agencies would find it easier to

obtain needed data from other agencies

using the new services to facilitate the exchange.

. Users in Congress and the private sector

would have their questions answered

more promptly and would have broader

control over the form in which the

answers were presented. For example, it

would be feasible to rapidly generate

plots of data developed through the use of

analytical models. Such plots or graphs

could be transmitted in hard-copy form to

the user. This offers more than just

another way of viewing results; it constitutes an opportunity to reduce significantly the physical bulk of responses

offered to policy makers. Rather than

merely produce large volumes of data. the

new capability would provide information (in the form of trends, extreme-value

reports, summaries, graphic comparisons,

etc.).

. The improved information service s

would make it possible to alert users immediately to the existence of new data

and information through an expanded information dissemination service.

. In processing queries, the referral staff

would be able to engage in a dialog with

both the user (via telephone) and the

center’s data bases (via computer and

online terminal). Responses obtained

from the online system could be verified

or alternatives discussed while the user

was still on the telephone,

. In some cases, it might be able to process

an entire complex query in-house, This

could include running a simulation of one

or more analytical models on aggregated

data available in the central data base.

. Many of the standard analytical tools

would be available within the center,

However, analytical capability would re-

●

●

CHAPTER V’

main in the agencies, with a small group

of experts also at the center. The agencies

would honor requests for aggregated data

from the oversight organization by

transmitting the data to the summary data

base in magnetic or punched-card form.

In this way, the center would be able to

serve as a data storage and analysis center

for the most critical materials data in aggregated form. Since it would not normally carry out any primary data collection activities, it would rely on the agencies to supply current and valid data,

The center would provide query management capability, including the capability

to assess bibliographic and abstract data

available in agencies’ data bases. Information specialists working from video terminals could accomplish this by first

determining what data would be needed

for a particular problem, then querying

the data directory to determine the 1ocation of the desired data, and finally obtaining access to the data itself via a

telephone or correspondence, depending

on its urgency,

The MRS could handle “what if” type

queries. These queries might explore the

impact of proposed legislative or executive actions in particular aspects of

materials management. This would normally require selection and use of a suitable simulation model (by the agency that

maintained the particular model). The

center staff would play a role in selecting

the appropriate model, making the user

aware of its assumptions, and interpreting the results for him. (Alternatively. the

center could suggest to the user one or

more experts who could assist him in interpreting the results. ) Depending on how

it might be implemented, the output

resulting from the simulation exercise

might not be forwarded to the user at all;

instead, the center staff could act as interpreters of the technical data for the

users they serve, Operating in this manner, the center staff would assume

139
CHAPTER V

responsibility for determining the user’s

intent, processing whatever questions

were implicit in his intent, coordinating

the results, and communicating the final

answers to the users,

3. Approach C: New Information System

Approach C is based on the development of

a new materials information system designed

and built from the top-down. The design

would begin with a set of carefully defined requirements, the results of a design requirements study, and would be based on use of upto-date technology. The desired integrated

capabilities would be realized without undue

regard to existing information systems. The

existing information systems would influence

the implementation planning in that parallel

operation and phaseover of capabilities would

have to be addressed, but the new program

development plan would be largely free from

the constraints of existing operating systems.

It should be emphasized that the new

“system” implied by approach C does not imply total centralization of data and processing

functions. Rather, what is envisioned is a distributed system operating in the various agencies as well as in a newly established information center. However, the authority for directing this approach would be legislated or

assigned by executive order to an existing or

new authority. This authority would provide

greater control over the existing institutional

materials information systems than in approaches A and B. Accordingly, this approach

represents a more significant break with the

past and, as such, implies greater changes to

current activities and larger initial outlay of

funds. The base requirements of this approach

would be accomplished at the price of onetime development costs and possible disruption to ongoing activities during phaseover.

Rarely does the opportunity arise to exercise hindsight in system design. Since this approach, in effect, is to “start over, ” it provides

just that opportunity and should be evaluated

as a candidate option for achieving the improved capabilities. As presented here, approach C would likely take longer to implement than the other approaches, However,

should short-range capabilities be needed,

there is a measure of flexibility in the approach to attain results earlier.

a. Approach C Development. Approach C

would involve four steps:

Step I—Define the program plans, controls, and measurement functions and

organization with which to manage the

system’s orderly development and implementation. The organization would

manage the numerous project tasks and

provide continuity throughout the project

life cycle. It would provide a central control to ensure that the enhanced array of

information services being developed

would:

—Support the legislated mission;

—Be flexible enough to respond to impacts of external sources and events;

—Maintain data security, integrity, and

timeliness;

—Maintain uniform data base and coding

structures, compatible softwar e

systems and telecommunications; and

—Be within the resource and cost limitations imposed,

The organization would assume responsibilities for overall thesaurus control and

would examine the applicability of existing thesauri for this purpose.

Step 2—With the information plans, controls, and measurements organization in

place, the detailed requirements for the

integrated facilities would be defined,

based on the studies completed to date

and a detailed survey of all users. When

the required output and processes to

achieve it were specified, an inventory of

data sources would be prepared to determine what data were usable and what

new data must be collected to support the

data base. The data requirements

140
specified during this activity would be

used to begin collecting pertinent data

while the “system” development process

continued.

. Step 3—The requirements definition

would be used to develop design and performance requirements. Hardware and

soft ware, including a complete data

management system, would be selected

and procured based on the requirements

and system design, Trade-offs would be

analyzed to determine the plan for implementation of the design, such as where to

start and how to phase over. Factors such

as cost and disruption would be weighed

against the need for function in deriving

this plan. Part of this planning would involve analyzing requirements against offthe-shelf software products such as data

base/data communications software,

● Step 4—After hardware and software

components were selected, the initial applications could be developed and tested,

and the operation could begin, Parallel

with this activity, staffing would begin

and training, procedures, and operations

would be developed. In initial and subsequent application developments. current

data bases would be examined to determine applicability to the new system environment.

Implementatio n of the integrated

capabilities would be accomplished in phases,

determined by priorities in the plan developed

by the control group established in step 1 .

Therefore, step 4 might be repeated several

times. Similarly, perhaps less frequently, steps

2 and 3 might also have to be repeated. The

implementation plan would thus have to be

flexible enough to respond to unforeseen circumstances during the development cycle,

such as the requirements changing as major

changes occurred in the system’s intended

operating environment. The planning group

would have to control the project and maintain

measurements and audits throughout the

development cycle, so that change could be acCHAPTER V

commodated and with minimum impact on

schedule.

As the evolution of approach C might be accomplished, the need to attain short-range

results might take the form of installing an

MRS (as described in approach B) between

steps 1 and 2 of this approach. at the point

where thesaurus and data inventories were

identified. A variation of this approach might

be directed at implementation of all of the integrated capabilities for a single material, instead of all or even one class of materials. Experience gained from providing support for the

one material could then be applied to adding

coverage for the additional materials. This

procedure would be less disruptive and less

costly, as the reiterations would be simpler to

accomplish for one material. Still another

variation might result in the establishment of

an analysis group quite early in the development cycle. This group could begin to correlate

supply and demand data by using whatever

data were available for rough estimates. Their

experiences could then be incorporated into

the orderly planning cycle. Approach C provides great flexibility in building the new information services on a “learn and go” basis.

b. The Changing Relationship of User

Needs and Capabilities. Approach C would

provide a complete, detailed distributed data

base to meet user needs. If a data item were

needed, the data would be made available

either from a reliable source or by assigning a

qualified organization to collect it,. Analytical

functional requirements not already available

would either be developed as needed, Procedures to new functional requirements that

may be only imperfectly specified now would

be provided; for example, ways to accommodate information on materials selection (See

appendix A,)

Any information “system” is of course

designed and implemented to attain a definite

set of goals, and after some period of operation

it is frequently found to be deficient for new

objectives, This same pitfall awaits the

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CHAPTER V

“system” that might evolve from this approach; care must be taken to avoid it, One tactic is to devote a large portion of the total

design effort to the definition of functional requirements. While experience shows that this

increased emphasis is desirable, it will not

necessarily avoid all the pitfalls, The fact is

that functional and performance requirements

change over time. It is probable, therefore, that

significant changes will have taken place between the time of the requirements definition

and the time the system processes its first data.

What is needed, then, is an adaptive approach which will enable users to respond to

change. The degree to which such an approach

may be realized has bearing on the weight to

be placed on the costs and disruption incurred

in developing it. If a one-time cost and a onetime disruption can eliminate future repetitive

expenditures and disruptions of operations,

then they may well be justified. A “system”

designed to recognize the requirement for

change and to enhance the ability of incorporating new functions to meet change has

certain characteristics which differentiate it

from other systems. Such an adaptive system

may be considered as having two components—a data processing component and an

evolution component (see figure V–4). The

data processing component would offer standard production data processing to its user; the

user would make a request for processing and

receive results. This data processing component would be preconditioned for the requests

based on the requirements definition. A discussion of the kind of structure currently envisioned for this component is presented in the

next section. The other evolution component

would be totally committed to increasing the

responsiveness of the system to change and

crises. The work performed by the evolution

component can be grouped as follows:

. Formal Semantic Dictionaries.—Within

the evolution components, dictionaries

would be compiled and maintained containing definitions of terms and concepts

appropriate to the new system and its

community of users.

●

●

●

c.

Information Clearinghouse,—The system

would serve as a clearinghouse for exchange of information about itself.

Program and Data Archives.—In addition

to program documentation, programs

would be collected and stored in libraries

by the system.

Readiness Management.—Efforts would

be made to ensure that the permanently

assigned staff is ready when a new requirement emerges.

Concept of Operation. In approach C, an

information center would be used as the primary interface for policy makers seeking information. The materials information center

would contain data, analytical tools, and

resources sufficient to respond directly to

many of the requests of policy makers. In addition, the information center would function as

its own referral service to enable it to gather

information from other points within the

system or to levy new requirements where appropriate.

The other points in the system would be the

existing institutions and agencies which currently process materials information. Their

missions would not necessarily change, but

might be realigned to avoid duplication or expanded to implement new functions, Existing

institutions would continue to collect data and

process it in support of their own missions.

They would have the added responsibility of

responding to requirements levied by the information center; in turn, they would benefit

by being able to make use of the center and its

capabilities,

The imposition of compatible information

systems would offer a high degree of physical

and logical data interchangeability. Data files

could be moved from one location to another,

and data access for one location could be triggered by another. This would facilitate data

communication for access to and correlation of

data from multiple stores across different

agencies. Note that the capability for interchange would greatly increase the need for

142
CHAPTER V

Figure V-4. Adaptive System

Processing Requests

USERS Results

I

A A

I

Information Requests

I 1

I

Information Responses

DATA PROCESSING COMPONENT

Hardware, Software, Data Base

I

(prior preparation)

I 4

Added

Capabilities

I

EVOLUTION COMPONENT

Hardware, Software, Data I

Foundation, People I

(prior plus ad hoc preparations)

adequate data security controls. Before such complished by careful file structuring or by

standards were imposed. the increased costs

that would arise if agencies either replaced

their current systems or made parts of them

compatible with the new system would have

to be carefully considered.

There is an opportunity when developing a

new “system” to establish standardization

among all operating locations. Since these

operating locations have separate missions and

are primarily responsible for supporting separate organizations. there will likely be a tendency over several years for redundancy, inconsistency, and ambiguity to creep in. Data

redundancy—practically unavoidable and

sometimes beneficial-could cause problems

in updating. If redundant data are all updated

whenever a single data item is updated. a

penalty must be paid in performance. More

important, there is normally a lack of awareness of the existence of the redundant data.

During the updating process, the new system

should be capable of managing redundant data

so that an update transaction to one data item

will trigger subsequent updates of redundant

data wherever it exists within the system. This

is a large task, but one which could be acperiodically scheduled batch updating.

Inconsistency presents a similar situation as

redundancy except that here actual stored

values at different locations differ. One

method of dealing with this problem would be

to bring apparent inconsistencies to the attention of the information center to be resolved as

appropriate. Ambiguity is the most significant

obstacle to direct data interchange (machine -

to-machine). Different meanings for likenamed data elements are prevalent and

difficult to discover in existing data bases. In

addition to format, the meaning of the data

must be understood by the particular organiza -

tion in order to effectively process its data, but

the meaning is not always apparent to outside

organizations. those not possessing a day-today working knowledge of the data. The semantics of the data differ among data bases,

programs, and personnel at various locations.

Combining these factors would be essential to

obtaining interpreted and correct results.

When the information center had determined that the information required to respond to a query existed within the system but

143
CHAPTER V

in several different locations, it would consider a search strategy to gather the data. Normally, with any complex search involving

multiple data bases there would be multiple

paths which could be followed to get to desired

data. Selection of a search strategy is defined

as the choice of a path by the human information specialist, using the computer to assist but

not to make the selection, Multiplicity of paths

and the strategy options which result occur

primarily because of redundancy. Redundant

data permits correlation from different data

bases. It offers the “glue” by which records are

attached to other records, to extend the scope

of linked data across data bases. Therefore,

although redundancy creates problems for updating, it permits increased search capability,

As envisioned, the tactics of information

searching would be the responsibility of the

individual operating agencies themselves.

That is, once the search strategy had been

chosen by the information center, the involved

organizations would be asked to conduct the

searches. This approach offers advantages

over that of direct access to the data to overcome ambiguity problems. Reliance on the

personnel in those organizations using their

own programs to search their data bases would

likely yield more accurate and better interpreted results. Some searching might be

done in parallel. The information center could

initiate operations at multiple locations at one

time. It might also be necessary, in some cases,

to retrieve data from one organization’s data

base prior to directing that a search be performed at another location in anothe r

organization’s data base.

The concept envisioned here would thus be

a network operation in which large files would

not be transferred across communications

lines and direct searching in another organization’s data base would be avoided. Rather,

emphasis would be on individual agencies performing searches as requested. Output available to the information center, would be of low

volume since the data would have been

analyzed, evaluated, and interpreted by the

agency’s personnel. Conversational interaction of the decisionmaker and the information

processing system is seen to be a key feature of

approach C.

d. Information Center Functional Components. The information center is envisioned to

encompass the following services:

. Query management,

. Materials analysis management,

. Data base management,

. Data collection management, and

. Clearinghouse and referral management.

The center would have a capability for infrequent ad hoc queries. Routing and periodic

reports could be planned, controlled, or produced as needed. This is one aspect of query

management. Short response time for immediate action queries, however, represents

another requirement for this system,

Whenever possible, the query specialists

would have direct access to data and /or

knowledge. This data would be dynamically

maintained in response to changing situations.

If unable to respond using the information

center, the query specialist would be able to

establish a task force of experts, using the

online indexes to find and contact the right

people and data to respond to the query or

world situation.

In addition to using existing models, improved models to forecast supply and demand

of various materials classes and to compute

first and second order effects of alternative

materials policies would be developed. A complete statistical, analytical, online system

capability would be available for use by the

analysts to verify the data collected, analyze

the trends, support the periodic reports, and

respond to the ad hoc queries, It is not anticipated that the analytical and forecasting services provided by the center would necessarily

obviate the need for similar capabilities in major departments or agencies, Congress, or the

private sector. The existence of independent

analytical capabilities supporting decisionmakers in all such groups but drawing data

144
and seeking the assistance from the center

would be quite compatible with this approach.

The information center would contain its

own data management function which would

be used to define, create, maintain, modify,

and retrieve data from data bases. Data can be

lost, stolen, altered, distorted, and destroyed,

The particular data to be maintained at the information center, as opposed to that held by

other agencies, would initially be determined

in the requirements analysis and would be

constantly altered as needs evolved during

operation. Its management must be planned,

budgeted, and controlled to ensure the

availability, integrity, and security of the data

to both the sources and users,

The data collection requirements for the information center would be determined by the

extensive study that would precede the design

and development of the information “system”.

The means of collecting data are many-questionnaires, surveys, forms. machine-readable

data, (cards, tape, etc.), and online interactive

questions and answers. Similarly, the data can

be formatted many ways. How this mass of

data is collected, validated, and entered into

the data bases would be determined in coorD. COST

In assessing costs, the way in which the integrated capabilities are achieved is very important. The feasible combinations and permutations within each systems approach as

well as within combinations of these approaches (such as A and B) are quit e

numerous, For example. an information

system which applies the basic functions only

to timber (forest products/paper class of

materials) is easier to implement, less costly.

and can be done faster than an information

system which applies the same functions to

the entire nonfuel minerals class of materials.

The former involves principally one material,

one institution, one already automated information system and one principal location: the

latter involves many institutions (BOM, USGS,

CHAPTER V

dination with the data base manager. Data collection would be done by professionals and

monitored by statistical validation programs to

check the data and to normalize statistical

samples.

The clearinghouse and referral management

function would provide the following services:

●

●

●

●

Development, publication, and maintenance of a materials thesaurus:

Indexing and abstracting service for all

materials information;

Development and maintenance of a

materials information dissemination and

publication service; and

Creation and maintenance of directories

of experts and organizations in the many

categories in the materials world.

In its full operation the information center

would have to address problems of consolidation, summarization, and aggregation of data;

many of these could be in detail after the basic

information system was operational. In this

way these more advanced information processing capabilities could be defined based on

actual experience with the information center.

ESTIMATES

BLM. OMPD, Bureau of Census. DIBA, ERDA,

GSA), and many manual and partially automated information systems with differing

capabilities,

The number of users and the specific purposes served by an information system must

also be considered. An information system

that collects supply and utilization data to

build a comprehensive, current data base to be

used for monitoring and identifying potential

materials shortages (early warning) is simpler

and less expensive than one that collects t he

same data for use for both early warning and

assistance to design engineering, The former

might need materials inventory and economic

data aggregated only to the regional level.

145
CHAPTER V

whereas the latter might also require detailed

materials properties data. An information

service with simple statistical support

capabilities based on extrapolation of past

historical data and summaries is simpler and

less costly than one with sophisticated modeling and forecasting support capabilities. The

former involves standard programs that are

available off-the-shelf and operate on the

types of data in current materials data bases;

the latter requires developing complicated

programs which operate on the types of data in

the current materials data bases and on many

other exogenous factors, thus requiring additional data collection. As a final example of

the influence of the scope of capabilities on

cost, an information system that produces

such periodic output as summaries and

statistical trends on particular materials and

that sometimes provides aggregated information upon request is simpler and less expensive than one that performs complicated policy

analysis and impact assessments fo r

policy makers.

Cost is also impacted by the implementation

time schedule and by any acceleration or

deceleration to support changing national, institutional, or materials priorities.

The estimates provided here indicate, to a

general degree, the costs of resources in terms

of manpower and automation requirements to

develop and operate the facilities required. As

indicated above, the estimates depend on

many variables whose values cannot now be

specified. Notwithstanding these recognized

limitations, the estimates are useful in

developing an appreciation of the relative investments that might be required for the three

approaches. Quite clearly, the cost estimates

should not be used for any other purpose.

There are four types of costs involved with

each of the three approaches:

●

●

146

Costs for data collection and validation

for the selected materials,

One-time, nonrecurring development

costs consisting of personnel to perform

●

●

The

requirements definition, design, development, and implementation. These costs

include those efforts associated with new

services as well as improvements to existing systems.

Automation costs consisting of purchase

and/or lease of necessary facilities to provide computer support, communications

support, and special equipment such as

plotters, displays, etc. The Government

can either purchase these facilities at the

outset and amortize the costs over some

time period, or lease the facilities and pay

the costs on an annual basis or utilize existing facilities by sharing the usage and

costs. For purposes of this comparison,

these costs will be considered recurring

on an annual basis.

Operational costs consisting of personnel

for management and administration,

operations, and information system support such as librarians, information

system analysts, subject matte r

specialists, computer operators, programmers, and statisticians, These costs are

recurring in that they will be needed for

each year of operation. They include

those efforts associated with operating

the new information services as well as

operating the existing information

systems.

cost estimates were based on the following assumptions:

Man-year cost estimated at $40,000 per

year to include salary, benefits, and overhead (facilities, space, supplies, travel,

etc.);

Computer time estimated at $400 per

hour;

Fees from use by private organizations

would partially offset recurring costs.

However, since such use was not examined during the study, no estimate of

these potential revenues is included;

No inflation factor included; and
. Only the incremental costs, over and

above currently planned budgets, have

been considered.

With these assumptions, the annual costs,

averaged over 5 years, are on the order of:

Millions

of

Dollars

Data collection and validation:

For 5 materials . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ..2

For 50 materials . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20

Development, Automation, and Operation:

Approach A. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. ...2

Approach B . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. ..17

Approach C . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. ..19

As noted, these cost estimates are considered

to be rough at best because of the uncertainty

in many of the numerous variables. It is conceivable that the estimates could be off

perhaps by as much as an order of magnitude

(factor of 10), For realistic situations, the estimates are expected to be accurate within a factor of about 5. It is expected that the relative

cost ordering of the approaches would remain

the same. Approach C appears to contain the

greatest potential for cost escalation. The

difference between approaches B and C are

negligible considering the accuracy involved

in the estimates, Approach C is very close to

approach B because it was assumed that a high

utilization of existing systems would be possible.

The elements of these cost estimates are

described in the following subsections.

1. Data Collection Costs

Approaches A and B are premised on the

assumption that the existing information

systems (including planned improvements underway) form the basis for the required integrated capabilities. Approach C also will use

data collected by the existing information

systems, although the degree of utilization of

existing information systems cannot be accurately estimated at this time. It is this factor

that gives approach C the greatest risk for cost

CHAPTER V

escalation, If the existing information systems

are not used to any great extent (for example,

if new automated support is required to

replace existing support), then the collection

costs could be greater than discussed here.

Maximum usage of existing systems has been

assumed. Existing deficiencies which would

have to be addressed, such as lack of needed

functions or incomplete functions, would be

corrected within the existing information

systems. Estimation of these costs is tenuous

at best because of the difficulty of establishing

the incremental cost increases to existing

budgets. However, it is likely that the largest

part involved will be those associated with

completing the collection and validation of the

detailed data for the required materials,

Assuming that these required materials will be

primarily from mineral fuels and nonfuel

minerals classes, and that they may number no

more than 50 or 60 in total (including both

critical and potentially critical), then an estimate of costs can be based on plans of the

Minerals Availability System (MAS) of the

Bureau of Mines. The 5-year plan of the

Bureau of Mines envisions an increase of MAS

coverage to 35 minerals at an estimated cost of

$29 million, mostly in personnel. It is thus

reasonable to conclude that implementing a

more aggressive plan to complete the data collection for about 50 to 60 materials might increase this cost to well over $50 million during

the 5-year plan period.

Other costs associated with this activity,

such as automation support and communications equipment, should be considerably lower

since the basic systems already exist. Extending the coverage to more minerals would not

necessarily cause a linear increase for each

additional mineral, since these support

facilities will already exist for the 35 minerals,

Some cost increase is likely, however. due to

the larger volume of information to be

handled, This increase might be on the order

of $1 million for additional storage; substantiation of this cost is the Bureau of Labor

Statistics cost of $1.2 million for improving one

data item, the price of imports/exports.

147
CHAPTER V

The Bureau of Census has allotted in the

1977 budget $3.7 million to prepare for taking,

compiling, and publishing the censuses of

business, transportation, manufacturers, and

mineral industries. The budget for both preparation and conduct of the economic census in

1972 over 3 years was $24 million. Applying

these cost yardsticks to the other institutions

involved (Bureau of Census, Federal Energy

Administration, etc.) for 50 materials might

yield an average data collection cost increment

over 5 years on the order of $2o million to

bring the needed data to the point that it was

complete and validated. For five materials we

have assumed that these costs are assumed to

vary proportionally, i.e., $2 million, Some experts believe, however, that a $4 to $5 million

estimate is more realistic.

These data collection costs are applicable to

all three approaches. The development,

automat ion, and operation costs, however,

vary with each approach.

2. Approach A: Development, Automation, and Operation Costs

While the major cost increment in this approach would be for the data collection previously discussed, the increased demand by

users to process this data, coupled with increased requirements for processing and

analysis support to provide improved services

from existing referral and clearinghouse

capabilities would increase the development

costs of the agencies. These increased costs are

estimated to be on the order of $2 million annually over the 5-year period. The operational

cost increases are particularly difficult to

assess since the present personnel may be able

to handle all or a portion of the additional

workload of new tasks. In the absence of better

information, this assumption was made here;

no additional cost for operations is included.

In summary, approach A would involve

additional annual costs, over the 5-year plan,

on the order of $2 million to $2o million to

complete the collection and validation of

needed data, and added annual development

costs on the order of $2 million. These estimates are based on the assumption that the existing information systems are used and the

additional operating costs of new services are

absorbed within existing agency manpower

budgets,

3. Approach B: Development, Automation, and Operation Costs

Cost estimates for this approach are dependent to a great extent on detailed decisions that

must precede each step. It is impractical to

postulate a 5-year plan posing costs for each

possible alternative. The illustrative 5-year

plan projected in table V–5 assumes that the

evolution of approach B will begin with the

materials referral service (MRS) and proceed

to full statistical/analytical operations on

materials information supplied by the existing

agencies and placed in a summary data base.

For step 1, personnel costs are the major element. The numbers of people involved will

vary during the step; however, implementation of this approach assumes an evolution of

the MRS to provide continually increasing

capabilities. For this reason, the costs of this

step are shown for an 18-month plan.

The function of the MRS is to refer requesters to data sources. As such, the MRS

staff would comprise primarily librarians and

indexing specialists. However, the MRS would

need broader knowledge of materials information to develop the basic data required for

upgrading or evolving to steps 2 and 3, creating

the need for information analysts and subject

matter specialists. The initial task of the MRS

during the first 6 months is envisioned to identification of the reference materials required

and creation of the indexes to those materials.

Having accomplished this, the MRS staff

would then be supplemented with the information specialists and additional subject matter specialists to be operational during the last

6 months. Additional clerical/administrative

support would also be required at this time in

order to start compilation activities in preparation for step 2, Computer costs for the MRS

148
CHAPTER V

Table V-5.—Approach B Development Schedule

Capability

Step 1

MRS

Materials information

exchange service

Step 2

Clearinghouse

Step 3

Summary data base

Statistical /analytical /capability

Legend:

Time Period of Step

Step Completion

Operational Capability

Year

1 3 4 5

during this early phase of the approach are

seen to be negligible because it is assumed that

automated support, including online computer

support, would be provided by the existing

agencies.

For step 2, at the end of 18 months, an initial

clearinghouse capability would be operational;

support provided in addition to expansion of

the MRS function would include indexing and

abstracting plus the completion of a materials

thesaurus, master directory, and data element

dictionary. Feedback and utilization statistics

would be accumulated to provide a basis for

systems improvements. In addition to skills

already established in step 1, commodity

specialists, information systems analysts.

systems and applications programmers and

computer operations personnel would be added to the staff. An in-house computer might be

requi

In

data

men

<

tial

red to provide the requisite support.

step 3, the requirements for summary

bases would be established and impleted in such a manner as to provide an inioperational capability for selected

materials within a 3.5 year time frame of the 5-

year plan. It should be noted that the time

period and resources to develop this capability

would be significantly less than those required

in approach 3. Considerable experience would

have been obtained from the MRS and

clearinghouse development. and information

provided would, to a great extent, be prepared

by the agencies. In addition, service would be

limited in this approach to t

which can be measured with

capabilities available within

MRS. Requests for data outside

hose questions

the analytical

the expanded

the purview of

the MRS would be referred to the appropriate

agency. New skills required to support this

function would include subject matte r

specialists, systems engineers, data base/data

communications experts, increased programming and computer operations staff and, in

particular, experts in the fields of materials

modeling, statistics, and analysis. Computer

utilization would be expected to increase during this period to meet user requests as well as

to provide system development support,

Table V-8 presents the average costs for approach B over 5 years, In addition to the costs

149
CHAPTER V

associated with the development and operation of the additional capabilities, there would

be modification costs for the existing agencies

to support the referral and clearinghouse services. It is estimated that this cost would

average an additional $2 million annually for 5

years. As with approach A, the increased data

collection costs would average $2o million annually over the same period.

4. Approach C: Development, Automation, and Operation Costs

An accurate estimate of the investment required for this approach must be preceded by a

detailed analysis of requirements and of existing information systems, to establish which

could be utilized as part of the new information “system” developed.

The development of the required integrated

capabilities by this approach would certainly

impact existing information systems.

However, the magnitude of the impact is

difficult to estimate because it is a function of

numerous variables, such as conversion costs,

to interface with the new system, the degree of

data aggregation/disaggregation, and the extent of disruption of existing information

system operations and consequent need to

provide backup. In the absence of a detailed

analysis, a very rough estimate of $10 million

was made; this is based on the assumption that

the existing information systems are used to a

large extent.

Approach C envisions the development of

the integrated capabilities to be spearheaded

by a few agencies, such as the Bureau of Mines

and Department of Commerce, which would

develop a prototype system to provide full

functional support for a limited number of

commodities. Such an approach is cost effective because the prototype development would

be an early product of the overall system

development activity and, at the same time,

would provide the benefit of an early, limited

operational capability with negligible increased cost. This would allow identification

of required refinements, which could then be

added since only a few materials would make

up the data base. Additional commodities

could be added on an incremental basis after

the refinements were made. Further, since this

approach provides the framework upon which

additional commodities can be added, it is conceivable that the remaining commodities could

be added without disruptions. In that case, the

cost impact would be reduced and the

workload might be accommodated by the permanent staff with only minor nonrecurring

costs.

The overall development schedule for this

approach is shown in table V–7. Work tasks

150
CHAPTER V

Table V-7.—Approach C Development - Schedule

Year

Task’

1 2 3 4 5

Requirements’

Systems Engineering’

Development

Operation

Additional Materials Addition

● Overlap of these tasks provides for refinement or requirement

o Initial Operational Capability

during the first 2 years of systems development would be focused on requirements

definition and overall systems engineering.

Computer time would be negligible in the first

year and would not start building up until the

latter half of the second year when development would begin. In the third year development activity would peak and increased computer utilization would require nearly fulltime support. Initial prototype system

development test would be performed by connecting the new information system to one or

more existing information systems late in the

third year. This would further increase the

workload so that by early in the fourth year

full-time computer support would be required.

Although new development activities are seen

to decline in the fourth year, support to cover

new commodities and more requests for inforE.

This section summarizes the strengths

weaknesses of the three illustrative

mation would continue to keep computer

utilization at a peak level through the last year

of the plan period. The average estimates of

costs for this approach over 5 years are presented in table V–8.

In summary, approach C would average annual costs on the order of $2 to $20 million

over the 5-year period to complete data collection and validation and would involve annual

costs on the order of $17 milIion, averaged

over 5 years, to establish the new information

system capabilities needed, It would use the

existing information systems to a large extent,

and the increased costs, averaged over 5 years,

in connecting these systems would be on the

order of $2 million annually. If it developed

that existing systems could not be extensively

used, the increased costs could be substantially

more.

SUMMARY

and capabilities are designed and implemented to

ap - support policy makers concerned with shortproaches from an information system stand- ages in developing long-range contingency

point; in chapter VII their social, political, plans and short-range responses to crisis situalegal, and other impacts are analyzed. It is tions. It is also assumed that the particular

assumed in this comparison that the integrated critical material(s) will already have been

151
CHAPTER V

Table V-8_Approach C Costs

I

Item

Development personnel (number) . . .

Development costs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Operational personnel (number) . . . . .

Operational costs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Automation costs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Total cost . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

I

Average

Costs per year ($ million) Yearly

1 2 3 4 5 ($million)

(50) (90) (1 10) (75) (50)

$2 $4 $5 $3 $2 $3

(50) (1 50) (250) (340) (450)

$2 $6 $10 $14 $18 $10

$1 $4 $6 $6 $4

$4 $11 I $19 I

$23 I

$26

.

$17

Note: Costs are for the new organization and its information system. An additional $2 million maybe needed

annually to modify existing information systems to conform with this approach. This estimate is based on

the assumption that the existing information systems would be utilized.

selected. The following characteristics were

used as yardsticks to compare the approaches:

Time to Achieve Operational Readiness.—The scale is marked in weeks,

months, and years.

Technical Application Constraints.—This

refers to the amount of work required to

convert technical knowledge into routine

operating practice. The scale is marked as

none, small, and large.

Constraints on Access to Needed and Expertise.—This refers to the problems

which will arise in carrying out the approach in having access to needed expertise to solve the problems. This scale is

marked in none, few, and many.

Administrative Authority .—This refers

to the degree with which the assigned

agency or group can ensure that the information plan is carried out. The scale is

marked in weak, strong, and total.

Budget Control. —This refers to the

ability of an assigned agency or group

head to control the money needed to implement the approach. This scale is also

marked in weak, strong, and total.

Continuity —This refers to the combined

effect of management attention and the

availability of staff to carry out the work

on a sustained basis. This scale is marked

ad hoc, periodic, and steady,

Incremental Cost. —This refers to the

relative size of additional expenditures

required to set up and operate the approach (over and above the estimated initial data collection cost of $2o million

which is common to all three approaches). This scale is marked low,

medium, and high.

1. Approach A

The strengths of approach A are:

●

●

The incremental cost could be relatively

low, As developed in the cost analysis,

about $10 million could be spent over 5

years. Approach A would use existing information systems and operating personnel, as well as planned improvements

presently underway.

Initial operational readiness could be

achieved in a short time, possibly in a

matter of weeks, assuming the needed

data are already available. When Congress or another authority decided that a

specific material or group of materials

needed attention, the coordinating group

152
could form a task force of experts from

within the existing agencies. If the

material of interest is one that was

already identified as such, it may have

already been studied extensively by the

materials management systems now in

place, In other words, the job could be

handled by a knowledgeable task force as

it has been in the past. However, if the

material in question had not been foreseen as potentially important, it might

take months and even years to obtain the

needed data.

. There could be essentially no technical

application constraints. Routine operating

practices of the existing information

systems would remain the same.

. Problems in access to needed expertise

could be none or few. Existing channels

of communication between agencies and

between public and private sector could

be used.

The weaknesses of approach A are:

. Administrative authority could be weak,

The coordinating group established to

collect the data would have to do so via

committees, task forces, or similar administrative devices. Such devices maintain their authority base for a short term

in response to crisis situations, but over

the long term, authority dissipates rapidly

as the crisis passes. In general, this lack of

authority could likely impose serious

limits on the extent to which many

problems involving interagency aspects

of the information system could be solved

(data transfer, standardization, etc.).

. Budget control could be weak. The coordinating agency could find it difficult to

ensure that performing agencies allocate

the money needed to be fully responsive

to the coordinating group’s requests.

. The ad hoc procedures and ad hoc staff

could seriously impact continuity, When

the need arose to restudy a specific

The

that

CHAPTER v

material’s shortage potential at various

time intervals, it could likely be necessary

to rebuild a coordinating mechanism each

time.

overall appraisal of approach A indicates

it would be well suited to those circumstances where the materials information

needed to provide early warning of a shortage,

including the probable effects of alternative

policy responses, already exists in the Government. Unfortunately, this assessment has

found few circumstances where these conditions exist.

2. Approach B

The strengths of approach B are:

Ž Continuity could be steady. It could be

possible to set up a managemen t

measurement system and to monitor

results against objectives, as well as to

maintain visibility of critical materials in

the intervals between formal reviews.

The technical application constraints

could be small. The work needed could

consist in large part of setting up interfaces between existing information

systems and the new information services

being established such as referral and

clearinghouse. The existing information

systems could continue to operate and

collect the needed data,

The time to achieve operational readiness

could be measured in months because of

the step-by-step approach, Significant

delays could arise primarily from obtaining initial authorization to establish the

oversight organization. Once this was

done, the approach could likely show

tangible results in a matter of months.

Administrative authority could be strong,

at least, in the short term. Precautions

could be needed, however, to ensure that

the oversight organization retained its initial authority over the long term. The

153
CHAPTER V

step-by-step approach could permit flexibility in controlling and attaining

development priorities as new needs

were identified.

. The incremental cost could range from

low to high, depending upon how far the

step-by-step approach was carried. Initial

costs for the first step could be low, approximately those of approach A. If all

the steps were added incrementally, the

total incremental cost of this approach

could be high, approximately equal to approach C. A key cost consideration in this

approach is that Congress could have the

opportunity to review the results of each

step before it appropriated extensions.

The weaknesses of approach B are:

. Budget control could be weak. The oversight organization could have the opportunity (and the responsibility) to advise

on the funding levels needed by the

various participating agencies to perform

their assigned tasks. Such intervention

could be made annually as budgets were

prepared. However, the control over actual expenditures could remain with the

various agencies.

● Access to needed expertise could involve

many problems. Some could arise from

uncertainties in the private sector over

the system’s ability to protect proprietary

information. Others might result from

evasive actions by individual Federal

agencies to safeguard the autonomy of

their missions, and from resistance to

rules suggested by the oversight organization to minimize interface problems.

Approach B is especially attractive in its flexibility and adaptability to unforeseen circumstances. The step-by-step nature of the approach could ensure feedback before each major commitment was made. It may also be the

best approach because of its high utilization of

the significant investment in existing information systems.

3. Approach C

The strengths of approach C are:

●

●

●

Administrative authority could be very

strong. The agency responsible for the

new system could be able to exercise a

span of management measurement and

control across the entire range of the objectives authorized by Congress.

Budget control could be total. Funds

could flow directly from Congress to the

responsible agency through th e

established authorization and appropriation process. Transfer of funds to the performing agencies could be at the discretion of the responsible agency.

Continuity could be steady. The management and staff could be in place for the

long term to design, install, operate, and

modify the new information system to

meet new problems.

The weaknesses of approach 3:

. The time to operational readiness could

be years. This approach is a long-term

solution. The primary time delays could

arise from the processes by which legislation is formulated and passed and the

building of an effective organization. *

. The incremental cost could be relatively

large. Further, this cost could vary significantly depending upon the extent of

utilization of existing systems. Congress

would likely have to commit to the whole

incremental cost for this approach before

initial work could be undertaken with

confidence.

The access to needed expertise could encounter many problems. In addition to

*There may be no direct analogies in the physical

sciences, but the timetable for the Lister Hill Center for

Biomedical Communications in HEW is indicative. It

was more than 2.5 years from the time it was formally

proposed until P.L, 90-456 authorized its establishment,

and another 2.5 to 3 years before funding, staff, and

facilities were in place to begin meeting its objectives,

154
those problems noted in approach 2, additional problems may arise as the agency

responsible for the new information

system hired knowledgeable people from

the existing information systems and

thereby reduced their capacity to participate effectively. New staff would also

have to be built up to establish new interfaces with industry, a time-consuming

process,

● Technical application constraints could

be large. While approach C offers the opportunity to design a system from the

start using the latest techniques, there are

two classes of problems that could require continuing trade-offs in the new information system design. The first class

of problems could arise from the fact that

no one has yet designed an information

CHAPTER V

system of this scope, especially when the

supplementary functions are considered,

The second could arise from the efforts

that would be made to get maximum use

of the existing information systems; it

could be necessary to modify their internal operations to achieve system compatibility. This may impact their ability to

perform their assigned functions.

Although, in principle, the advantages of approach C outweigh the limitations, it is based

on the assumption that decision makers can

fully define their system requirements and

that false starts can be minimized. Recognizing

the uncertainties in the ability to define the

materials problem, and keeping in mind the

pace of change in relevant information technologies, this approach may represent an

unacceptably high risk.

155
Chapter VI

ALTERNATIVE

INSTITUTIONAL ARRANGEMENTS

FOR IMPLEMENTING THE

INTEGRATED CAPABILITIES
Chapter VI

ALTERNATIVE INSTITUTIONAL ARRANGEMENTS

FOR IMPLEMENTING THE

INTEGRATED CAPABILITIES

Institutional change is necessary if Congress and the President decide to provide the integrated capabilities. Such

capabilities could be located and operated in many institutional

settings, including locations within the private and public sectors

and within the legislative and executive branches to support

public policymaking.

Seven alternative institutional arrangements are identified to

illustrate the range of feasible possibilities. Among these, the

Federal executive branch seems the most appropriate location,

although supporting or related materials information activities

may be located in the private sector, State/local government, the

Federal legislative branch, and/or quasi-governmental organizations.

A. INTRODUCTION

The need for establishing the integrated

capabilities to support public policymaking on

materials-related problems raises fundamental

questions about the institutional arrangements

of such a system.

● Where would it be located?

● How would it be structured?

. What powers would it have?

How would it operate?

The selection of appropriate institutional arrangements is critical to any option which

Congress and/or the President may select for

implemental ion.

This chapter will discuss institutional arrangements suitable for improving the existing

materials information systems according to the

three systems approaches described in

chapter V. Each institutional arrangement will

be analyzed in terms of location, function, and

institutional structure. Among the institutional variables considered are: (1) the

organizational framework of laws, rules,

regulations, charters, etc.; (z) the basic powers

and responsibilities of the unit and its parent

agency, if any; (3) its autonomy from political

or program influences; (4) control over the

directorship, budgetary, administrative, and

legal policies of the system; (5) executive and

legislative oversight; and (6) access to the

system by potential users. Other variables are

159
CHAPTER VI

the particular reputation, experience, and

capability of possible institutional units or

parent agencies: relationships with other

governmental and private sector institutions;

and possible disruptions or conflicts with

ongoing programs.

Governmental institutions include executive branch departments and agencies including the Executive Office of the President, independent agencies, commissions, advisory

bodies. Government corporations, legislative

branch agencies, and other institutions which

perform governmental functions, are funded

by Federal revenues, or are under other direct

Federal controls. Because the integrated

capabilities are national in scope, the governmental institutions considered are Federal;

however, State and local governments also

may participate in their operations.

Private sector institutions include corporations and other business entities, whether for

profit or nonprofit. trade associations and

other special interest groups including public

interest, environmental and other political or

social associations, educational and research

institutions, and other nongovernmental entities. Institutions which perform the integrated capabilities under Government contract

are not considered to constitute private sector

institutions because the primary responsibility

for the system remains in a Government agency. However. a private sector institution

which performs the integrated capabilities

under its own control and management and

supplies materials information to the Government as one of its customers is considered to

be a private sector institution, even if some

Government subsidies are received to support

its activities

B. INSTITUTIONAL ARRANGEMENTS

1. Institutional Arrangements for

Incremental Improvement of Existing

Systems

As documented in the survey and interviews, many Federal agencies and private sector institutions are currently engaged in the

collect ion and analysis of materials information, These activities can continue to develop

through the incremental improvement of existing systems. Three possible institutional arrangements for incremental improvement are

considered here. The first arrangement

reflects increased Federal commitment to the

many separate information systems under the

individual control of existing Government

agencies and private institutions, The second

arrangement includes the establishment of a

materials referral service in some Federal

Government location to direct materials informat ion inquiries to appropriate information

sources. The third institutional arrangement

provides for a coordinating board or committee

to develop guidelines for the operation and incremental improvement of existing materials

160

information systems. Both the referral service

and coordinating entity are compatible with

systems approach A.

a. Increased Federal Commitment to

Government and Private Sector Materials

Information Systems. Under this arrangement, all existing institutions would continue

to administer their separate data collection and

analysis programs. Increased Federal commitment to the development of materials information, through some of the kinds of legislative/executive options discussed earlier. could

help encourage Government agencies and private sector institutions to improve existing information systems and to establish new data

bases and analytic methods where needed.

With support from the Congress and the

President, Government agencies could seek

expanded powers, including authority to gain

access to critical materials information, and

improve and expand their data bases and

statistical and analytical programs, Where appropriate, the Congress and the President

could allocate adequate funding and other
resources for automation of data bases and

standardization of reports and measurements.

Each agency would continue to set its own

reporting and disclosure requirements. standards o f confident i a 1 i t y, a n d a d m i n ist rat i ve

policies, The costs of each system would be

borne by the parent agency, with separate

budgetary requests submitted to OMB and the

a p p ro p r i a t e congress io n a 1 co m m i t te es.

Private sector institutions which collect and

ana1yze materials i n formation —p r i ma r i 1 y co rporations, trade associations, educational institutions and trade publications-might be

encouraged in their activities by this increased

(government interest in materials related information. (governmental interest could be expressed through voluntary exchanges of in format ion with the private sector. subscript ion to

materia1s publications and services. and

Government contracts, as well as through

direct subsidies and grants. Private sector institutions do not possess the authority to command access to materials information which

Government agencies may exercise and so

must rely upon voluntary arrangements. contractual relationships, published data, and

their own research. Private sector institutions

need not respond to requests for information

by the President. [government agencies. or

Congress except to the extent required by law,

a n d t he y h ave n o respon sib i 1 i t y to reply t o inquiries by the public.

This arrangement will require no new or

substantially modified Government entity.

will entail minimum disruption of existing

systems. and will not threaten existing agency

or private sector control. However. without

the organization and integration possible

through an improved institutional arrangement, increased Federal commitment may

result in further duplication of programs, incompatible information produced by separate

data basest overlapping and conflicting agency

jurisdictions. and will probably inhibit comprehensive analysis of materials life cycles.

Thus it seems evident that evolution of existing systems through increased Federal comm i t me n t w i t h o u t i m proved ins t i t u t ion;] 1

CHAPTER VI

organization and integration will fall short of

meeting the i n formation needs discussed

earlier.

b. Materials Information Referral Office.

In this institutional arrangement, some

organization and integration is added to the

decentralized systems through a materials

referral office established to direct information

seekers to the appropriate sources. All existing

materials data systems and other information

gathering and analysis activities would continue under the control of existing institutions.

Within the executive branch, the most

likely locations for the referral office are the

Department of Commerce or the Department

of the Interior, because they are charged with

broad jurisdiction over natural resources and

industrial materials. In the legislative branch,

the referral service might be located within the

Library of Congress. perhaps as part of the National Referral Center. The referral office

would be charged with the responsibility for

monitoring available materials information

sources in the Government. the private sector.

and through publications, as well as directing

inquiries to the appropriate location.

In addition to serving as a clearinghouse for

materia1s information requests from the

public. industry, a n d Government, the

materials referral office would collect items of

special relevance to the materials Cycle and

publish periodic guides to such items and to

material information sources. All Federal

agencies which collect information relevant to

materials supply and demand could be

directed to provide the referral office with a

descriptive index of the data collected and any

materials publications, the office or person to

who m i n formation requests shou1d be

addressed, and fees, if any. for such service,

The referral office could also obtain, on a

voluntary basis. similar information from State

a n d local governments a n d m a j or p r i vate sec -

tor materials information sources. and in

return would facilitate the flow of federally

collected information to these sources.

161
CHAPTER VI

The possible advantages and disadvantages

of a materials referral office for incremental

improvement of existing systems are summarized in table VI-1. The referral office has the

clear advantage of facilitating access to existing materials information sources, but does not

go very far toward solving any of the more

substantial problems of materials information,

although it may lay the groundwork for future

change.

c. Materials Information Coordinating

Board. In this second institutional arrangement, a coordinating board or committee

would be established to guide the operations

and incremental improvement of separate information systems. This board or committee

would monitor the performance of individual

systems and suggest guidelines for system

operation and improvements. Members of the

board or committee could be appointed by the

President and might include representatives of

all materials information agencies, the Justice

Department, OMB, materials regulatory agencies, Congress, the Comptroller General, and

other relevant legislative agencies. In addition,

the board or committee could provide for the

participation of representatives of the

materials industry, trade associations, information management specialists, and members

of the public through advisory committees.

A Government board or committee could be

given appropriate authority to acquire from

Government and private sources the information concerning materials and information

systems management needed to propose

uniform standards for improved operation of

the existing materials information systems.

These guidelines should cover such matters as

the treatment of confidential information,

standardization of measurements and reporting, public access policies, indexing of available materials information, and improvement of

systems operations. The board’s or committee’s proposals would be advisory in nature

and implementation of proposed standards

would be left to each institution. The -

board or

MYmteSPS OM@ntagee

Wili not greatly disrupt the materia18 infor- 14iay to some extent cfupKc4@e activities Of

matlon syaterns cbf existing afpioiet% agenoy publk information offices.

Will facilita~e the development of a grouP Wili probabiy reqube a new governmental

to serve as a fbcus for later and more unit.

substantial change. Will not soive moat of the existfng

Will provide a centralized Iikatiti for problems rewtltm from cfiffwhg ~enoy

referral to appropriat~ information poiicles, nonuniform standards, muitiple

sources, and thus may stirnulats some reporting requ@ments of =parate inimprovement in existhg infohation formation systems.

systems.

Posstbte Mvun*eg8s df3fs8dventege* of a Qevernmaat C~inet!ng hoard

Advantages Ofsadvanta$ea

May promote more uniform and compatible May flot insure effective coordination of

operation of individual systems. seDarate infonnatiod systems if many

May promote coordination of sgeticy

a~enoies reject proposed guidelines

policies end activies on materials htir- Will rquire many potential users to seek

mation information horn rnuitipie sources.

Wiil not greatly disturb ongoing re{atkm- Wiil not solve thox pr~blems wh~oh tim

ships between agencies and private from the basic ir!stitutic?nal alirwments

sector data sources. and perspectives of individual agencies.

$

162
committee would not control any materials information bases—all decisions regarding data

and information sources would remain with in

the jurisdiction of existing institutions.

The board or committee would have a small

supporting staff and budget which could probably be associated with the Executive Office of

the President or a line agency such as the

Department of Commerce or the Department

of the Interior. As part of its mandate, the

board or committee would supply Congress

and the President with periodic reports on the

operations and policies of Government

materials information systems. The materials

referral service previously described could be

included within the mandate of the board or

commit tee.

Possible advantages and disadvantages of a

coordinating board or committee located in the

Federal Government are summarized in table

VI-1. The board or committee may promote

more uniform operation and better cooperation among existing institutions, without

greatly disrupting the decentralized system.

But the lack of binding authority and dependence on voluntary agency cooperation

might well render the board ineffective.

2. Institutional Arrangements for Major

Improvements in Existing Systems:

An Executive Branch Location

Most proposals for establishing the integrated capabilities to support public policymaking have placed the improvements with in

an executive branch institution. For purposes

of this study, executive branch institutions include executive departments and agencies

(heads of which serve at the pleasure of the

President), the Executive Office of the President, independent agencies and commissions

(directors of which have fixed terms of appointment). and quasi-governmental institutions. This section assesses possible advantages and disadvantage

excut ive branch inst itut

most compatible with

and C.

;s of each of these ex -

ons as the arrangement

systems approaches B

CHAPTER V I

a. Location in an Existing Executive

Department or Agency. Several pieces of

legislation before the 94th Congress called for

establishing a comprehensive materials in format ion system in an existing executive department or agency which exercises jurisdiction

over one or more sectors of the materials industry. Examples of such locations include the

Departments of Commerce, Interior, and

Agriculture, the General Services Administration, and the Federal Energy Administration.

This study does not attempt to assess the comparative advantages and disadvantages of locations in these agencies, but rather seeks to

identify the general advantages and disadvantages of executive departments and agencies

as compared with other alternative institutional arrangements.

The basic powers and responsibilities within an executive department or agency would

derive from the existing mandate of the agency and from specific implementing legislation

and directives. The primary functions would

be performed by this unit in addition to

management of the system and coordination of

supporting activities of other agencies. Since

this arrangement. like the others. would use

existing data bases maintained by individual

agencies, necessary authority must be granted

to allow transfer of relevant materials in format ion from the primary source agency. Appropriate standards for protection of information subject to claims of confidentiality must

be established for exchanges between Government agencies and private sector respondents.

To ensure that timely, comprehensive. and

reliable data will be provided. the institutional

unit might be empowered to require submission of materials data from private sources

where no Government agency collects the

necessary information. as well as authority to

compel access to private sector materia1s data.

books. records, and sites for validation purposes. As an additional incentive to the completeness and reliability of the integrated

capabilities. the General Accounting Office

might be empowered with full authority to

review all raw data submissions by Govern163
CHAPTER V I

ment and private sources and to inspect respondents’ books, records. and facilities for

validation purposes.

The institutional unit would monitor all factors affecting the materials life cycle. in addition to materials supplies and consumption,

and would provide periodic and special reports

to Congress and the President on the national

materials situation. These reports would be in

addition to supplying continuous access to current and complete materials data to Government and the public. Enabling legislation

could promote responsiveness to Congress by

specifying compliance with congressional requests for materials information and analyses,

Public access to improved materials information could be enhanced by a firm legislative

statement directing maximum operational

openness in and limiting grants of confidentiality,

Principal funding for development and

management would be contained in the budget

of the parent agency. Other agencies would

bear a proportionate share of the costs of maintaining and using the integrated capabilities.

Costs of primary information gathering and

processing activities would be borne by the

primary source agency as a cost of its own data

base. Costs of special requests for information

from agency data bases would be assessed to

the responsible institutional unit, Only search

and reproduction costs would be recoverable

from public and industry users, as allowable

under the Freedom of Information Act. Consideration should be given to the establishment of reasonable fees for tie-in subscription

by private systems.

Possible advantages and disadvantages of

locating the integrated capabilities in an existing department or agency are summarized in

table VI-2, On one hand, the reputation, expe ri e n c e, m a nag e m e n t s t r u c t u re, a n d

authority of a supportive parent agency could

help insure effective interagency cooperation

and provision of required resources. An existing agency location will likely minimize the

disrupt ion of ongoing Federal programs and

private sector relationships (as compared to a

new agency), On the other hand, the parent

agency, may be inf1uenced or even ‘‘captured

by political or policy preferences, impairing

c red i b i 1 i t y o r 1ea v i ng t h e i n t eg ra ted

capabilities in an incomplete and weakened

status if other Federal agencies and/or the

parent agency refuse to or cannot cooperate,

b. Location in a New Executive Department or Agency. There are two possible institutional arrangements in a new executive

department or agency, Under the first of these

possibilities, the integrated capabilities would

become part of a new executive department

such as the proposed Department of Energy

and Natural Resources. Under the second

possible institutional arrangement, a new

statistical agency would be created, While

each of these arrangements reflects many of

the advantages and disadvantages which attach to existing executive departments and

agencies, there are sufficient differences to

warrant separate considerate ion,

Department of Energy and Natural

Resources.-In recent years, there have been

several proposals for the establishment t of a

new “super department“ with jurisdiction

over matters pertaining to natural resources

and energy. Programs and offices dealing with

these subjects which are, at present, scattered

among severa1 departments a n d agencies

would be reorganized u rider the aegis of a

single department. Existing energy and natural

resources statistical programs in the Departments of Agriculture, Commerce, and Interior

would be among those transferred to the new

super department which would then become.

perhaps, the most appropriate executive

department location.

The institutional unit would be charged

with the responsibility y for establishing and

maintaining a centralized materials information system with the capability of monitoring

all relevant factors affecting materials supply

and demand for the benefit of the Executive,

Congress, business, and the public. In addition

to gathering. processing, and distributing

164
CHAPTER V I

materials information utilized in the central

system, the unit would have the responsibility

for coordinating Government materials informat ion activities and assuring the compatibility of contributing data bases and

systems with the central system. Most of the

data would rely upon materials information

now collected by individual agencies under

new and existing Federa1 programs.

Therefore, appropriate authority would be

granted to assure interagency cooperation

while maintaining necessary protection for

confidential information. In order to carry out

its functions. the institutional unit could he

empowered to require submission of relevant

materials information from private sector and

Government sources where such information

is not contained in existing Federal data bases

or is not readily accessible therein.

Responsibility for verifying, periodically,

the accuracy of submissions could be granted

to the centralized system, It could. for purposes of such validation, be authorized to seek

access, by subpena if necessary, to materials

information and supporting books, records,

documents, and other evidence, including

trade secrets and other privileged and confidential information in possession of various

Table VI-2.-Possibie Advantages and Disadvantages of a Location in an

Existing Executive Department or Agency

Advantages Disadvantages

May enhance credibility if adequately in- May be exposed to the possibility of insulated from internal agency infiuence fluence by political and policy

by creating a separate bureaucratic unit preferences.

(e.g., Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau

of Census, and DoA Statistical Report- May be “captured” by its parent agency

ing Service). through direct or indirect pressures to

report or interpret materials statistics

Will locate in an operating structure can so as to further the parent agency’s improvide the required resources and sus- age or programs.

tain the necessary expansion of activities. May impair the credibility.

May be strengthened through the reputa- May exacerbate existing competition betion, experience, management structure, tween agencies and creation of new

and existing operating authority of the rivalries, in part because of dependence

parent agency. upon information gathering authorities

and data bases of numerous Federal

May help assure interagency cooperation, agencies.

if the parent agency is fully committed to

and supportive. Will be subjected to general control of the

parent agency over management, legal

policies, and resource allocation, and to

Will provide materials information seekers intra-agency competition for funds and

with a single location for information re- personnel.

quests. May create some minor disruption of ongoMay help promote uniform policies of ing Federal materials programs in order

public access, disclosure, and confi- to accommodate information needs and

dentiality, and standardization of report- improve compatlbility of existing

ing forms and units of measurement. systems.

Will not substantiality interfere with existing Myy be incomplete and impaired, if the

relationships between Federal agencies other Federal agencies and/or parent

and information sources in the materials agency rafuse to or cannot cooperate in

industry, since existing agencies will meeting information needs.

continue to be the primary agents for

data collection.

May help eliminate some duplication in existing facilities and programs.

165
CHAPTER V I

Government agencies and private sector institutions. As part of its functions, the institutional unit would provide materials information clearinghouse and referral services, issue

periodic reports, and upon appropriate request, supply special reports to the President,

executive branch agencies, and the Congress.

Possible advantages and disadvantages of a

location within a new natural resources super

department are summarized in table VI-3. This

location will likely facilitate the ability to provide for uniform systemwide policies on

materials information, to improve compatibility through modifications in existing

systems, and to eliminate duplicate programs

and activities, On the other hand, location in a

super department will unduly delay implementation (since a super department is years

away), will likely disrupt many governmental

programs, may increase the possibility of

department influence on statistics and

analyses, may therefore diminish the unit’s

credibility and may heighten both inter- and

intra-departmental competition for resources

and prestige.

New Statistical Agency .—Several of the disadvantages associated with a location in a

natural resources super department might be

overcome by the creation of a new statistical

agency to develop and operate the integrated

capabilities. This agency would be under the

direction of an Administrator appointed by the

President and confirmed by the Senate; its sole

responsibility would be the development and

maintenance of a centralized materials information system serving the needs of the executive branch, Congress, business, and the

public. While the President would exercise

some control over the agency through the

166
power of appointment and removal, the Administrator would have a responsbility to exercise independent judgment.

This materials information agency would

publish periodic reports on materials

availability and consumption and other key

variables. In addition, the agency would respond to special requests for materials information from the President and Congress. The

agency would provide basic materials life-cycle data, statistical analyses, trends and

forecasting capabilities, and other services of a

statistical or informational character. It might

also provide policy options or policy analyses.

The agency would have primary responsibility for recommending necessary changes in

existing materials information systems to

assure compatibility with the integrated

capabilities. These recommendations could be

implemented through independent action by

primary source agencies, OMB directives, or

by legislation. The agency would utilize existing data bases where possible and would continue to rely on existing agencies and departments to act as collection agents for primary

materials data for the central system. The

agency could be given appropriate authority to

require necessary and relevant information

from Government and private sources and

might, for validation purposes, have access to

all raw data under control of contributing primary source agencies and to private sources’

books, records, and facilities. Appropriate protection would be given to confidential information, and confidential or privileged information in the possession of other Government

sources would be released only as specifically

required.

Possible advantages and disadvantages of a

new materials information agency are summarized in table VI-4. This location will enhance

the agency’s credibility by making it independent from policymaking functions, will

remove it from potential pressure by a parent

agency, and will place it in one of the strongest

institutional positions within the executive

CHAPTER VI

branch to represent itself before the President

and Congress and to secure necessary support

and cooperation. While disruption will be less

than a super department, a new agency will

still require additional bureaucratic overhead

and administrative structure, may experience

a start-up delay, and in the final analysis, may

not be given the authorities and resources

necessary to carry out its mission.

c. Location in the Executive Office of the

President. Another possible institutional location is within the Executive Office of the

President (EOP). There are several justifications for such a location. A comprehensive

materials information system cuts across

departmental and agency boundaries in its

scope and jurisdiction and depends upon agency data and analytic support. Location in a

supra-agency position within the executive

branch would permit coordination and

management of activities without exacerbating agency rivalry, overlapping jurisdictions,

and disrupting of ongoing agency programs. In

addition, the management authority over data

reporting requirements, confidentiality, standardization of units of measurement and

geographical units, and disclosure policies

would be exercised through the President’s

authority over the agencies.

The integrated capabilities are national and

international in scope and are intended in part

to support important national policy decisions

which are made or approved at the Executive

Office level. Through the authority and

prestige of the President, information and expertise from Government and corporate

sources would be readily available to an EOP

unit. There are several possible existing Executive Office locations, such as the Office of

Management and Budget, Domestic Council,

or Council of Economic Advisors. A new executive office or council might be established

similar to the Coordinating Board discussed

earIier, or a smaller unit such as the three

member Council on Materials Management

proposed during the 94th Congress in S.1415.

167
Chapter VI

Given the size of the Executive Office of the

President and its limited personnel and

resources, a unit located there would at most

perform management and coordination functions, publish summary data in report form,

and provide high-level analytical and policy

support to the Executive. Therefore, the unit

would rely on existing agency and other data

sources to perform primary data collection and

analysis. Since the validity of data would depend upon the quality of agency sources, the

EOP unit might be given the authority to request any relevant information not already

collected by Government agencies-either by

direct request to the source or by delegation to

the appropriate agency. Agencies would provide. supplemental materials information

analysis upon request of the EOP unit.

Possible advantages and disadvantages of a

location within the Executive Office of the

President are summarized in table VI-5, An

EOP location may increase visibility and

prestige, strengthen management of agency

activities and access to materials information

and expertise. and minimize direct conflicts

over operations and policies. However, this

location may be viewed as an unwarranted expansion of Presidential power, may subject the

unit to the influence of political preferences

and claims of executive privilege, may

therefore impair its usefulness to Congress

and the public, and, overall, may place severe

constraints on the scope of operational activities.

d. Location in an Independent Agency or

Commission. From the standpoint of this

study, the primary differences between executive agencies and independent agencies is in

the directorship of the institution. The director(s) of an independent agency are appointed

168
CHAPTER V I

Table Vi–5.—Possible Advantages and Disadvantages of Location Within

The Executive Office of the President

Advantages Disadvantages

May minimize direct conflicts between ex- May be viewed as an expansion of Presiecutive agencies and departments over dential power.

operations and policies. May be subjected to the direct influence,

May strengthen access to materials infor- real or apparent, of political preferences.

mation and expertise through E.O.P.

authority and prestige. May be subjected to claims of executive

privilege and thereby limit usefulness to

May strengthen management and coordina- Congress and the public.

tion of agency activities. May impair congressional and public acWay increase viability and prestige. cess to the system.

May be weakened or “orphaned” if the

President is not fully supportive.

May place severe constraints on the scope

of activities and the level of available

resources.

by the President with the approval of the mary materials information from

Senate and serve for a fixed term of years like sources for all Government agencies,

members of regulatory commissions; the head /

of an executive agency serves at the pleasure

of the President. The principal advantage of

the fixed-term appointment is the increased

autonomy of management in setting internal

policy for the system and in providing unbiased analyses. In addition, certain professional or other qualifications for the directors

might be specified to further promote their independence.

As in other institutional arrangements, the

in depend en t agency would coordinate

materials information activities and provide a

centralized depository for materials data. The

agency would, through transfer of existing

functions or interagency agreements, build

upon existing data bases and relationships

maintained by other Government agencies.

The agency could be empowered to require information from governmental and private

sources, and could have access to all necessary

documents, books, and records for validation

of data submissions. An independent agency

could also be an appropriate institutional

structure for a comprehensive system in

which the agency was the sole collector of priprivate

Because of its independence, the agency

would be co-equal with other Government institutions, It would control its own fiscal, administrative, and legal policies within the

broad guidelines set by the Executive. Appropriate oversight authority could be vested

in GAO to promote the accuracy and

reliability of system information, The agency

would be required by legislation to respond to

requests for information and analyses by Congress and the President. As part of the Federal

Government, the agency would be subject to

openness requirements of the Freedom of Information Act and procedural requirements of

the Administrative Procedure Act. The agency

could be made even more responsive to public

demand for information through requirement

of published reports at regular intervals, with

well-defined limits on confidential information. User fees could be reasonably set to promote use by private citizens and business.

Possible advantages and disadvantages of a

location in an independent agency or commission are summarized in table VI-6. This location will protect the agency from danger of

169
CHAPTER V I

Table Vi-6.-Possible Advantages and Disadvantages of Location in an

Independent Agency or Commission

Advantages

Will prevent “capture” by a parent agency.

Will permit more autonomy and control

over its resources and policies.

Will be better insulated from political and

other pressures or influence by the Executive or Congress.

May permit uniform regulation of materials

information reporting, disclosure, confidentlality, and public access.

Disadvantages

May be insulated from the information

needs of Government agencies and the

public.

May lose touch with critical specialized information needs.

Will cause some disruption in ongoing

programs due to the reorganization required.

Will require the creation of a new governmental institution and additional

bureaucratic overhead.

being captured by a parent agency, will permit mental regulations, red tape, restrictions, and

it to have more autonomy over its resources,

and will better insulate it from political

pressures. However, location in an independent agency may permit it to lose touch with

critical information needs, may insulate it

from information users, and will require the

creation of a major new governmental institution with additional bureaucratic overhead.

e. Location in a Quasi-Governmental Institution. Several proposals have suggested

that the integrated capabilities be located in a

special quasi-governmental institution such as

a Government-chartered corporation or a

specialized association like the National

Academy of Sciences. These suggestions are

based on several assumptions. First, such an

institutional location would be “independent

of Government” and hence better suited to

serve the materials information needs of both

industry and Government, while at the same

time drawing upon Government resources and

information to support its activities. Second,

because of its independence and “private sector” identification, a quasi-governmental institution could develop better working relationships with private industry, as industry

would be more inclined to accept the objectivity of data generated and more likely to

“trust” such an institution with its proprietary

data than a Government agency. Third, a

single location would be free of much governtherefore would perform “better” than a similar governmental institution, Fourth, the institution could be “self-supporting” through

user fees. Fifth, independence of the institution from both industry and Government

would provide maximum protection of

proprietary information.

f. Location in a Government-Chartered

Corporation. One suggestion calls for creation

of a quasi-governmental corporation with a

structure similar to COMSAT—a federally

chartered stock corporation which would

develop and maintain a comprehensive

materials information system serving the

needs of Government and materials producers

and materials consumers. Stock in the corporation would be sold to system users and the

public, with the anticipation that the majority

of shares would be held by system users. Incorporators of the corporation would be appointed by the President, approved by the

Senate, and would elect its first Board of

Directors. Thereafter, annual or other periodic

reports on corporate activities and financial

condition would be submitted to the President

and Congress,

Initial funding for development of the

system would be provided by one or more of

these methods: direct subsidy by the Federal

Government, sale of stock, loans to the corporation either guaranteed by the Federal

170
Government or held by the Federal Government, or loans or subsidies by private industry.

Sale of stock in the corporation may be

delayed until the system is operational, with

costs and risks of development undertaken by

the Federal Government. Since under this

structure the corporation would ultimately be

controlled by its shareholders and not the

Federal Government, it would not possess any

authority to compel disclosure of materials information from public or private sources. The

system would rely upon published materials

and the voluntary cooperation of governmental and private institutions. Access to the

system would be gained by subscription, contract, or management discretion.

Possible advantages and disadvantages of a

Government-chartered corporation are summarized in table VI-7. This location will place

responsibility within a neutral independent institution, may enhance credibility of data and

analyses. may create a self-supporting basis

and increase the willingness of private companies to cooperate, and will not disrupt existing Federal programs. However, such a location may limit direct public use, may reduce

responsiveness to Government and public

needs, and may limit access to materials information in Government agencies.

g. Location in a Government Advisory

Body. Another quasi-governmental institutional configuration would place some or all of

the responsibility with the National Academy

of Sciences or a similar body which traditionally has served in an advisory capacity to

the Federal Government,

The Academy, although not a Government

agency, has maintained a close relationship

with the Federal Government since its

establishment by Act of Congress in 1863. Its

charter specifies that “. . . the Academy shall,

whenever called upon by any department of

the Government, investigate. examine, experiment, and report upon any subject of science

or art, the actual expense of such investigations, examinations, experiments and reports

to be paid from appropriations which may be

made for that purpose, but the Academy shall

receive no compensation, whatever, for any

service to the Government of the United

States. ” Although no Federal funds are appropriated directly for Academy activities, the

Federal Government provides the principal

funding for its operations through the negotiation of individual contracts with Government

agencies.

Under this institutional arrangement, one or

more agencies of the Government would contract with the National Academy of Sciences

or other advisory body to develop and maintain a national materials information service,

perhaps along the lines of the TRIS (Transportation Research Information System) now

operated by NAS. The advisory body would

obtain materials data necessary for the performance of its functions from readily accessible

Government data bases, publications, and by

voluntary submissions of data by private

sources. The expenses of the system would be

undertaken by the Federal Government and

any other subscribers. Management of the

system would be supervised by an appropriate

committee of NAS or other advisory body,

Because the advisory body is not part of the

Government, it would not have any authority

to compel disclosure of information by private

or Government sources. However, through its

contractual relationship with Government

agencies it would gain access to all necessary

and relevant data under Government control

for its activities. Confidential information

released to the advisory body for information

system purposes would be protected by contractual provisions, specific terms accompanying release, and relevant Federal statutes

restricting disclosure of such information.

Confidential information voluntarily supplied

by private sources under conditions of confidentiality would be protected from release,

even to Government agencies, by the threat of

civil liability for any harm resulting from such

disclosure. Since the advisory body is not a

governmental agency, it would not be subject

to the public access requirements of the

Freedom of Information Act. However, certain

171
CHAPTER VI

Table VI-7.-Possible Advantages and Disadvantages of Location in a

Quasi-Governmental Institution

Location in a Government-Chartered Corporation

Avantages

Will place responsibility within a neutral independent institution.

May enhance credibility of data and

analyses to some sectors of government, private industry, and the public.

May be on a self-supporting basis through

stock sales and user fees.

May increase the willingness of private

companies to supply confidential and

other materials information to a neutral

entity.

Will create no direct disruption of existing

Federal Government programs.

Disadvantages

May limit direct public use due to costs involved in payment of user fees.

May limit access to materials information in

Government agencies.

May impair the reliability and validity of

data.

May raise problems of accountability if the

Government should participate in

management of the corporation through

stock ownership.

May reduce the usefulness and responsiveness to Government and public

needs.

Locatlon in a Government Advisory Body

Advantages I Disadvantages

Will be insulated from direct Government I Will not provide authority needed for accontrol. cess to materials information from

May encourage private industry to be more

willing to supply sensitive, confidential

information.

Will not require a major expansion of

governmental activities.

May enhance credibility.

May more effectively insulate confidential

information from unauthorized or harmful

disclosure.

Government and private sources.

May impair the ability to operate effectively,

Will require the negotiation and approval of

complex contractual relationships with

the Federal Government.

May limit pubiic and Government access.

activities of the institution might be subject to pand the materials information generally

provisions of the Federal Advisory Committee

Act, and indirect public access to system information could be obtained by FOIA request to

the subscribing Federal agencies.

The system would exist in addition to

materials-related data systems in individual

Federal agencies, but it would not have any

coordinating responsibility for agency information activities. It is anticipated, however,

that any improved methods of materials data

management or analysis would be available to

the agencies for implementation into ongoing

programs, Publication of annual or other

periodic reports on materials resources,

reserves, consumption, and other factors relating to materials supply and demand would exavailable to business, educational and research

institutions, and members of the public.

Possible advantages and disadvantages of a

Government advisory board are summarized

in table VI-7. This location will insulate the

board from direct Government control, may

encourage private industry to supply confidential information, will not require a major

expansion of governmental activities, and may

enhance overall credibility, However, location

in an advisory body will not provide the

authority needed to acquire necessary

materials information, may impair the ability

to operate effectively, and may limit public

and Government access,

172
CHAPTER VI]

3. Location in the Legislative Branch

One of the most important goals of the integrated capabilities is to provide Congress with

timely, accurate, and comprehensive information about the Nation’s materials supplies and

demands. Congress must, to a large extent,

rely upon data and analyses submitted by executive branch agencies or upon materials submitted for legislative hearings by private

sources, Some limited analytical capability is

available in CRS, GAO, and OTA, and potentially in CBO, but these resources are stretched

thin. Increasingly, legislation and proposals

have appeared for the establishment of an independent congressional capability to prepare

separate analyses for Congress, in addition to

those supplied by the executive branch and

lobbyists.

Such a need could be met by establishing

materials information capabilities within the

legislative branch, either within an existing

legislative support unit or as a new legislative

office. Because of the nature of Congress’s information needs, such capabilities would deal

largely with aggregate data and with trends,

forecasts, and analysis of administration or

congressional proposals. Its data base needs

would not be as extensive as more comprehensive technical systems. Authority would be

needed to obtain basic aggregate data from existing Government and private sources. Access

for purposes of validation could be given to the

materials unit or to GAO to check executive

agency and private submissions.

As part of this congressional materials information capabilities, existing clearinghouse,

referral, and analytical services provided by

CRS and GAO would be improved, Congress

would thus have its own independent source

of materials information and analysis. which

would not be directly accessible by members

of the public since Congress is not subject to

requirements of the Freedom of Information

Act. However, information and analyses supplied to Congress by the unit would likely be

published in legislative records and documents. This legislative unit would not serve

needs of the Executive or other Federal agencies.

Possible advantages and disadvantages of a

location in the legislative branch are summarized in table VI-8. The major advantage is that

Congress would be freed from absolute

reliance on analyses submitted by executive

and private sources. Congress would have the

benefit of independent judgment and analyses.

The integrated capabilities would be limited in

scope and complexity and would be integrated

where possible into existing legislative support

units.

The disadvantages of a congressional location are, first, that operations would rely primarily upon the voluntary cooperation of

Government agencies and private institutions

in supplying materials data to the unit. Largescale refusal or reluctance by Government

agencies to supply necessary information

could limit the effectiveness of the system and

reliability of data. Second, any congressional

use of mandatory disclosure of information

from Government or private sources would be

cumbersome--either subpena power would

have to be exercised by a congressional committee, or a legislative officer would have to be

properly authorized to sue for the production

of information. Third, establishment of a congressional unit would be constrained by the institutional and resource limitations inherent in

a legislative branch location, While existing

congressional offices-CRS, GAO, CBO. and

OTA—might well be upgraded in th e

materials information area, in part through the

support of evolving congressional information

capabilities, the Congress does not appear to

be a feasible location.

4. Location in the Private Sector

A final possible institutional arrangement is

the establishment of the integrated capabilities

in the private sector, Private sector institutions

include business and educational institutions,

and trade and special- interest associations.

Their essential features are that they operate

173
—

CHAPTER VI

Table Vi-8.-Possible Advantages and Disadvantages of a Location

Within the Legislative Branch or Private Sector

under self-management and are not under the of the materials cycle. Indeed, these private

direct control of Federal or local government—

even though they may derive substantial

revenue from Government sources.

Many private sector institutions are already

engaged in gathering, processing, and reporting materials information. Thus, like Government, the private sector has decentralized

materials information systems. These systems,

like those in Government, cover man-y aspects

sector data bases are a major source of

materials information for the Government and

its systems.

Within a private sector location, the primary

management and information functions would

be placed in a single institution, with supporting functions provided by other entities, A private sector location would include an institution such as a corporation, trade association, or

174
research or educational institution, This institution would gather, process, and report

relevant materials information to users in

Government, the private sector, and the

public.

The primary authority for the private sector

institution would be derived from its charter,

by-laws. and the laws of the jurisdictions in

which it operates. The entity may be either

profitmaking or nonprofit, but for it to operate

successfully it must be self-supporting. The institution would rely primarily upon materials

data bases maintained by Government and private sector sources, Access to those sources

would be dependent upon the discretion of the

entity controlling the information and could be

secured by appropriate contractual arrangements, Where applicable, access to Government-held information may be guaranteed by

the Federal Freedom of Information Act and

other Federal and local public disclosure requirements.

However, unlike Government-controlled

systems, access to private sector systems is

limited by private ownership, and access may

be gained only by purchase or subscription. A

system may be maintained by a trade association for the use of its members, with only

limited disclosure to Government and the

public through publications or other voluntary

release. Other systems are maintained for internal management purposes and are kept

highly confidential for competitive reasons.

There is no requirement that information contained in these private systems be generally

available to the public or Government.

Furthermore, information supplied to a private system by materials producers and their

trade associations may, in some instances, be

of doubtful reliability because of the

possibility of intentional bias so as to distort

the use of such information by Government,

materials consumers, and other institutions,

Within sectors of the materials industry, there

is considerable distrust by companies of

figures supplied by competitors to Government or trade associations.

In this competitive atmosphere, proprietary

information, including data not normally considered privileged or confidential, is frequently guarded from disclosure to rival companies, potential suppliers, or customers. Even

systems run by neutral trade associations or

research and educational institutions suffer

from the competitive atmosphere that exists

within segments of the materials industry. The

result is fragmented, incomplete, and often

unreliable data bases producing information

systems and analyses of limited depth, scope,

and credibility which serve only a small number of the potential users. Finally, there is no

private sector institution which could coordinate and interrelate the activities of the decentralized systems to provide timely, reliable,

and complete information on the entire

materials cycle to the Government, private industry, and the public.

Possible advantages and disadvantages of a

location in the private sector are summarized

in table VI-8, A private sector location for

policy analysis may reduce demands on the

Government for materials information, supplement existing Federal systems, and promote private sector cooperation. But at the

same time this will likely obviate the authority

needed to carry out the primary mission to

support public policymaking, may produce an

arrangement which is incomplete and unreliable, will result in limited public and congressional access and use and may permit influence by materials corporations or industries. Private sector materials information

systems-especially with respect to scientific/technical information, clearinghouse/

referral services, and forecasting/analytical

capabilities in support of materials policymaking —might well be improved, through increased Federal Government support, But the

private sector does not appear to be a feasible

location for a major public policy-oriented arrangement,

175
CHAPTER VI

C. SELECTED IMPLEMENTATION ALTERNATIVES

The analysis in the preceding chapter

strongly suggests that, without direct and concerted action, the legislative/executive branch

needs for improved materials information in

support of public policymaking are unlikely to

be met through the natural evolution of existing materials information systems. However,

the analysis also indicates that increased

Federal commitment through one or more of

the possible legislative/executive options will

not by itself insure that existing systems

evolve to meet the priority information needs.

Regardless of the level of commitment, additional organization and integration seems essential. Various levels of organization and integration may be introduced through the alternative institutional arrangements as well as

through the systems approaches discussed in

chapter V.

1. Rationale for Specific Alternatives

a. Potential Users and Information Needs

Determine Objectives. Selecting specific

alternatives depends in the first instance on

the potential users and their information

needs, as translated into objectives to be

achieved. In this assessment, the focus is on

materials information for public policymaking.

Thus, the primary potential users include

policy makers in the legislative and executive

branches of the Federal Government (e.g.,

Members of Congress and congressional staff,

the President and executive-level staff department and agency heads and their staffs), and

the primary need is for inventory/economic

information. However, for the reasons discussed in chapter 111. the alternatives should

give some consideration to other users (e.g.,

private corporations, and trade associations,

consumer and environmental groups, and

research and educational organ izations), as

well as State and local governments.

b. Alternative System Approaches. T h e

implementation alternatives involve different

systems approaches, with appropriate levels of

a u t h o r i t y, to achieve the integrate d

capabilities,

In terms of services, the approaches range

from (a) a materials information referral service (to help users locate existing information

sources); (b) a materials information exchange

service (for effective interchange of information among existing systems); (c) a summary

materials data base (summarized and aggregated data from existing and/or new systems);

(d) a clearinghouse or query management service (to respond to user requests for materials

information in various formats); (e) statistical

analysis and forecasting; and finally to (f) a

detailed materials data base (detailed as well

as summarized data from existing and/or new

systems),

With respect to functions, the approaches

are based on a life-cycle concept for managing

materials information. The life-cycle concept

includes information on all stages of the cycle

of materials supply and utilization, from acquisition of raw materials (e.g., exports,

stockpiles, or reserves) through processing

(e.g., beneficiation, refining, and smelting) and

manufacture to eventual consumption, and

end-use (e. g., disposal. re-use, or recycling).

This concept can also include information on

interrelationships between the materials life

cycle and, for example, energy input, labor and

transportation requirements, and environmental impact.

The life-cycle concept provides the basis for

a wide range of statistical analysis and

forecasting functions, such as estimating the

potential scarcity of selected commodities or

determining the environmental impact of

substituting one material for another, and also

provides a framework for the referral and exchange of materials information.

With respect to information technology. the

capabilities and functions discussed above are

dependent on improvements in both nonautomated and computerized data bases data processing, statistical analysis, and forecasting.

Three basic systems approaches which can

176
provide this information support are discussed

in chapter V:(1) incremental in improvement

with in the context of existing systems and institutions (to be accomplished by essentially

the same people, in the same organizations,

with the same tools); (2) sequential improvement building on existing systems and institu -

tions but including some new or substantially

modified systems and institutional arrangements: and (3) “total systems” improvement

whereby a new materials information system

is designed and developed from scratch with

significant consolidation of functions from existing systems and including a major new institutional arrangement.

c. Institutional Arrangements. All arrangements will relate to and. where appropriate, build on the institutional arrangements

associated w i t h existing materials in formation

systems, The integrated capabilities could be

operated in many places, including locations

within the private and public sectors. and

with in the legislative and executive branches

of the Federal Government, However, since

the primary objective is to support public

policymaking, the number of feasible institutional a arrangements can be substantially

reduced. Executive branch locations were

analyzed in section B.2., of this chapter.

Private sector.-A private sector location

may reduce demands on the Government for

materials information. supplement existing

Federal systems, and promote private sector

cooperation. But at the same time this location

will not have the authority needed to carry out

its primary mission to support public policmaking. may be incomplete and unreliable,

will result in limited public and congressional

access and use, and may be influenced by

materials corporations or industries, Private

sect o r mater i als information systems—

especially with respect to scientific/technical

information, clearinghouse/referral services,

and forecasting/analytical capabilities in support of materials policymaking-might well be

improved. perhaps through increased Federal

[government support. But the private sector

CHAPTER V I

does not appear to be a feasible location for a

major public policy-oriented alternative.

Public sector, Stale/local govcrnment.—

Because the integrated capabilities are national and even international in scope, a State

or local government location is not appropriate. However, State and local governments

may contribute to and use the improved

system, and may receive Federal support for

development of their own systems.

Public sector, Fedcral legislative branch.-A

legislative branch location for materials information activities will help Congress develop

alternative sources of materials data and

analyses, and ultimately strengthen the

capability of Congress to reach informed and

independent judgments on materials-related

issues, But a principal location in the legislative branch will be subject to severe institutional and administrative limitations, will not

be under the access requirements of the

Freedom of Information Act (which does not

apply to Congress), and will likely limit use by

the executive branch and private sector, This

location may also stimulate the burdensome

use of congressional subpena power in obtaining materials data (if Government agencies do

not cooperate voluntarily), and probably will

not be able to provide adequate funding and

personnel. Thus, while existing congressional

committees and offices—CRS, GAO, CBO, and

OTA—might we11 be upgraded a n d

strengthened in the materials information

area, in part through support of the congressional information system, the Congress does

not appear to be a feasible location for a major

alternative.

Public sector, Federal quasi-governmental

organization. —A location in a Governmentchartered corporation or Government advisory

body will place responsibility within an independent institution, will be insulated from

direct Government control, and therefore may

enhance the credibility of data and analyses

and increase the willingness of private companics to cooperate. However, a quasi-governmental location is not likely to provide the

177

fill-t,’? 8 ( ) - 7‘i - L’!
CHAPTER VI

authority to acquire necessary materials information from Government agencies, and may

impair the ability to operate effectively. This

location will probably reduce responsiveness

to Government and public needs, and will

most likely preclude any significant use by the

Congress. While a quasi-governmenta l

organization may be suitable for supporting

activities, similar to those suggested for a private sector location, it does not appear to be

very feasible for an alternative designed to

support actively the public policymaking process.

Public sector, Federal executive branch, -

Thus the balancing of advantages and disadvantages clearly suggests the Federal executive branch as a principal location, although

supporting or related materials information activities may be located in the private sector,

State/local government, the Federal legislative

branch, and/or quasi-governmental organizations.

To limit the executive branch possibilities to

those consistent with the study focus, additional assumptions are that: (a) there will not

be a massive reorganization of Government

agencies, although arrangements such as a

Department of Energy and Natural Resources

could be considered; (b) there will be a distinct

entity with some level of responsibility for

achieving the integrated capabilities, including

possible efforts to organize and integrate the

existing Federal Government information

systems; and (c) integrated capabilities will

not have regulatory or policymaking responsibilities for substantive materials problems

and issues.

Given the foregoing assumptions and

evaluations of comparative advantages and

disadvantages, the range of feasible and representative executive branch institutional locations includes (a) an existing office within an

existing agency, (b) a new office within an existing agency, (c) a new executive agency, and

(d) a new independent agency or commission.

Each of these locations can then be combined

with other important institutional components

to create an overall institutional arrangement.

These other institutional components include

the

●

●

●

●

●

●

following:

scope of responsibilities with respect to

the level of capability, e.g., referral,

statistical, forecasting, and/or analytical,

and the ability to make recommendations,

promulgate rules and regulations, and

take actions to carry out objectives;

data collection and protection authorities

with respect to the extent which existing

authorities of relevant agencies will provide the basic framework, or whether

new authorities will be needed and if so,

to what extent will additional mandatory

data collection be called for;

data validation with respect to the extent

which existing authorities will provide

the basic framework, or whether new

authorities and/or techniques with

stronger provisions will be needed;

data access with respect to the conditions

under which the public, Congress, and

the President will have access ;

user charges; and

oversight.

2. Selected Implementation Alternatives

Alternatives for implementing the integrated capabilities are derived from a combination of the appropriate legisla -

tive/executive implementing options and institutional arrangements. Seven alternatives

were selected to meet the following objectives:

. Represent a series of progressively

stronger legislative/executive actions to

organize and integrate the existing

Federal Government materials information systems in order to meet policymaking needs for improved information;

178
● Through institutional change an d

systems improvement, add coordination

and some centralization to the decentralized materials i n formation

systems now operative;

● Provide materials policy makers (both

public and private) with aggregated

materials information on a timely and

convenient basis, but with sufficient

checks and balances built in to protect

against the abuse or misuse of the

detailed (and frequently sensitive) data

on which such information is based;

. Build upon, improve, and use more effectively (but not necessarily supplant) existing systems;

● Utilize where appropriate the outputs of

State/local government and private sector

materials information systems, without

undertaking to organize and integrate

non -Federal systems; and

● Provide Federal support for related improvements in State/local government

and private sector systems, especially in

the latter case with respect to scien -

tific/technical information needed for

materials R&D and engineering design,

The seven institutional arrangements summarized in tables VI–9 and VI–10 include:

1.

2.

3.

Materials Information Referral Office,

Materials Information Coordinating

Board,

Bureau of Materials Statistics,

4.

5.

6.

7,

CHAPTER VI

Bureau of Materials Statistics and

Forecasting,

Materials Statistics

Materials Statistics

ministration, and

Administration,

and Forecasting AdMaterials Information Commission.

Arrangements 1 and 2 are representative of

the level of incremental improvement and

change and are consistent with systems approach A, coordinated evolution, Arrangements 3 and 4 are representative of the level of

intermediate improvement and change and are

consistent with systems approach B, step-bystep upgrading. Arrangements 5, 6, and 7 are

representative of the level of maximum improvement and change. Arrangements 5 and 6

are consistent with systems approaches B and

C. Arrangement 7 is consistent with approach

C top-down change, except for the provisions

for detailed data bases within the new institution. Without this provision it would be completely consistent. This was rejected as a viable systems approach because of the large

amount of data and information systems

already in existence. To duplicate these information systems would be very costly. In addition, it would be difficult to accomplish

because of the lack of expertise an d

knowledge needed to collect and validate the

data. The existing institutions are having

problems obtaining the needed manpower for

their own purposes. Table VI-10 shows which

key components or information services are

consistent or compatible with each institutional alternative and systems approach.

Details for each institutional alternative are

summarized in table VI-11,

179
180
CHAPTER VI

Table V1-10.-Summary of Key Components of Implementation Alternatives

, r n # , #

Compatible with Systems Approach A

Establish a materials referral service Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes

Improve relevant activities in legislative offices

(e.g.. CBO, CRS, GAO) and executive agencies

(e.g . Dol. DoC, DoA) No Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes

Upgrade Government support for private sector

development of necessary capabilities No Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes

Establish effective information interchange

between existing agencies No Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes

Compatible with Systems Approaches B and C

Establish a new office/agency with

clearinghouse/referral and statistical capabilities No No Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes

Establish a summary materials data base in the

Office/agency requiring submission of

summary data from existing agencies No No Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes

Provide the office/agency with data verification

authority requiring, where necessary, submission

of original data from existing agencies No No Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes

Include forecasting/analytical capability within

the office/agency No No No Yes No Yes Yes

Provide a new executive agency with

authority to issue rules and regulations

and, where necessary, for direct verification of

materials data at the original source No No No No Yes Yes Yes

Compatible with Systems Approach C

except for the datailed data base)

Provide a new independent agency with

authority for collection of materials data from

original sources (superseding authority of

existing agencies) No No No No No No Yes

Establish a detailed materials data base in the

independent agency No No No No No No Yes

181
F

I

182

— —
Chapter Vll

ANALYSIS OF POSSIBLE IMPACTS
Chapter Vll

ANALYSIS OF POSSIBLE IMPACTS

The range of possible impacts of improving the flow of

materials information and analysis to public and private decisionmakers is extremely wide. This assessment focuses on five broad

impact areas judged to be most significant: Government, the

economy, social institutions and behavior, international policymaking, and public law.

The impact analysis suggests the following conclusions:

● The potential impacts of improvement in organization

and integration of materials information systems in the

Federal Government appear to be primarily beneficial,

and the likely detrimental impacts in large measure are

avoidable, controllable, or justifiable in the public interest.

● At the incremental level of improvement and change, all

impacts appear to be minimal or marginal. Benefits appear to be of major or overriding significance, and costs

appear to be negligible.

● At the intermediate level of improvement and change,

many impacts could become significant. At this level and

above, some of the potential impacts appear to be critical or of overriding importance relative to other trends in

society, the Government, and the economy. And even

those impacts which in the short-run are marginal or

minimal may assume cumulative importance over time.

Overall, potential benefits are judged to substantially

outweigh any potential detrimental impacts.

● At the maximum level of improvement and change,

several impacts could be very beneficial. However, at

this level the possible detrimental impacts or costs

could be significant enough to warrant very careful consideration of the trade-offs involved.

185
CHAPTER VII

A. INTRODUCTION

The range of possible long-term effects of

improving the flow of materials information

and analysis to public and private decisionmakers by establishing the integrated

capabilities is extremely wide. This assessment focuses on five broad impact areas

judged to be most significant, at least from the

standpoint of national decision makers: the

Government, the economy, social institutions

and behavior, international policymaking, and

public law.

To simplify the analysis where appropriate,

institutional arrangements 1 and 2 (the

Materials Information Referral Office and

Materials Information Coordinating Board)

will be considered together as institutional arrangements at the level of incremental improvement and change. Likewise, institutional

arrangements 3 and 4 (the Bureau of Materials

Statistics and Bureau of Materials Statistics

and Forecasting) will at times be discussed

together as institutional arrangements at the

level of intermediate improvement and

change. Finally, institutional arrangements 5,

6, and 7 (the Materials Statistics Administration, Materials Statistics and Forecasting Administration, and Materials Information Commission) will frequently be considered

together as institutional arrangements at the

level of maximum improvement and change.

B. IMPACTS ON GOVERNMENT

Basic conditions and key trends determining

the impacts on governmental processes include (a) the increasing complexity and criticality of materials supply and demand in a

highly industrialized society, (b) the concomitant need for detailed information and statistical analysis, and (c) the importance of longrange forecasting to support contingency planning and materials policymaking,

In the area of governmental impacts, the potentially significant effects identified were:

●

●

●

●

●

186

Support for governmental planning and

priority selection;

Increased ability of decisionmakers to

cope with materials problems;

Possible improvement in relationships

between Federal, State, and local governments;

Changes in the distribution of influence

and responsibility among Federal agencies; and

Support for increased public participation

in decisionmaking.

1. Support for Governmental Planning

and Priority Selection

Improving existing information systems

could contribute needed support to the process

of planning, definition of objectives, and

priority selection with respect to materials

policy. The importance of this contribution is

very significant, although information is only

one of many variables in the planning process,

Acceptance and utilization of such improvements could take time to build. At the level of

incremental improvement (systems approach

A), impacts could be minimal because many

responsible Government officials already are

informed about available information and

have established contacts with the collecting

agencies. Thus, the Materials Information

Referral Office could at most contribute some

added convenience when new kinds of information are needed by an individual official.

The Materials Information Coordinating

Board, by adding more extensive improvement

to collection/analysis activities in other agencies and the private sector, could marginally

upgrade the quality and availability of information.
At the intermediate level of improvement

(systems approach B), the Bureau of Materials

Statistics could provide substantial benefits in

terms of speed and convenience in procuring

data and providing a more consistent statistical

base for varied elements and sources of policymaking. The addition of forecasting capability

through the Bureau of Materials Statistics and

Forecasting could greatly increase potential

benefits to governmental planners by permitting more consistency in the assumptions used

for long-range planning by various agencies

and the legislative branch, and could contribute to broader consensus on materials-related policy issues. The Bureau could provide

a focus for the organization and integration of

existing Government materials information

systems, and could permit application of the

materials cycle concept to support the policymaking process, On the other hand, if the

statistical analysis function reveals disparities

between actual resource allocation and relevant values held by interest groups,

policy makers, or large segments of the public,

there could be a short-range increase in political tensions and conflict as a result.

The arrangements involving maximum

change (systems approach C), add to the potential benefits through stronger authority to

validate data at the original source, How much

benefit depends on the extent to which present

data collection is found to be unreliable or

misleading. The Materials Statistics Administration, although probably providing a

large increase in the volume of statistical data

(and forecasting and analysis for the Materials

Statistics and Forecasting Administration)

could detract from the policy-related activity

in other agencies and locations by competing

with them or aggregating from them some of

the necessary supporting activities, However,

the lack of forecasting and analysis functions

in the Materials Statistics Administration,

while perhaps minimizing disruption of related activities in existing agencies, may

severely constrain its usefulness.

Thus there are trade-offs to be made in

evaluating the relative benefits of this level of

change. Whereas the Materials Information

CHAPTER VII

Commission might be more independent of executive branch policy constraints and thus be

more useful to or more trusted by Congress,

this same independence could lead to its

removal from the mainstream of policy-related

activities and cause duplication of many of its

functions within both executive and legislative agencies and support organizations.

2. Increased Ability of Decisionmakers

To Cope With Materials Problems

The ability of Federal-level decisionmakers

to cope with materials-related problems depends in part on the quality and availability of

i n formation. Also significant are th e

availability of alternative materials and technology, the authority and responsibility of the

Government to intervene in economic transactions, the public acceptance of such interventions, and the external restraints represented

by the action of other nations or the degree of

cooperation achieved domestically by industry

and consumers. Thus, improvement in information flow could contribute significantly to

the capability of understanding and analyzing

problems and issues and also could aid in the

ability to achieve solutions (e.g., with respect

to the materials, energy, environmental and

transportation implications of possibl e

substitutes for imported aluminum or the

development of solar-energy sources in the

Southwest). Therefore, possible impacts on

the solution of materials-related problems are

closely parallel to the potential impacts on

planning and priority selection. The forecasting and analysis functions which are included

in the intermediate and maximum levels of

improvement could afford significant benefits

in situations where understanding of the scope

and complexity of a problem (and its social,

political, and economic implications) is essential, and where consensus must be reached

quickly in key areas (e.g., reacting to a political

crisis such as the oil embargo). In longer range

problemsolving, where responsible officials

are assumed at present to do their own

forecasting and analysis, the benefits would

again be in terms of the quality of analysis and

consistency of forecasts.

187
CHAPTER VII

3. Possible Improvement In

Relationships Between Federal, State,

and Local Governments

Impacts of improved materials information

flow on intergovernmental relations probably

will be significant, with most benefits likely to

accrue to State and local planners and decisionmakers, especially in smaller States and

localities with least internal resources for information gathering, analysis, and forecasting.

At the incremental and intermediate improvement levels, State and local planners and decisionmakers could derive substantial benefits

from the added convenience and ease of locating data in Federal agencies or in a new office

or agency. And, they could benefit by the

analysis and forecasts made available to them,

as well as the support provided for improvement of their own data capabilities. This could

enhance cooperation between levels of

Government to the advantage of both. At the

maximum change levels, these benefits could

be outweighed by distrust or resentment

resulting from activities arising through the

additional authority to verify and validate

data, from resistance to growth in the Federal

bureaucracy, and possibly from disruption of

established contacts in the existing Federal

agencies,

4. Changes in the Distribution of

Influence and Responsibility Among

Federal Agencies

The distribution of influence, responsibility,

power, and public visibility among Federal

agencies will also be impacted by improvements and changes in materials information

systems. Hence, indirectly, the oversight functions of some congressional committees will be

affected as well as budgetary allocations to the

affected agencies. These changes are of little

interest to information users and to the public,

but they may be of concern to Congressmen

and are very important in determining the

stance of agencies toward proposed changes in

existing systems. Some impacts could be

manifested even at the incremental level of

change.

For the Referral Office, impacts could be

confined largely to the parent agency which

must establish and maintain the referral

system, and to other agencies which will be

asked to respond to the referrals themselves.

This impact is limited to the need for new

positions and support facilities, and to some

incremental increase in public visibility and

constituency for the parent agency. The Coordinating Board adds to the referral system the

effort necessary for more extensive improvement of information systems in other agencies

plus governmental support for improvement

of private sector systems. Thus, there could be

increased costs as well as benefits for other

agencies, benefits (subsidies) for industry and

possibly for universities and research

organizations, and general public benefits

from improved accessibility and quality of information.

At the intermediate level, the Bureau of

Materials Statistics (or Materials Statistics and

Forecasting) could represent a significant impact (increased responsibility and benefits) for

the parent agency and some diminution of

responsibilities, constituency, or budget for

other agencies who will, however, still have

their existing responsibilities for data collection and dissemination. At the maximum

change level, however, creation of a new executive agency (an Administration for

Materials Statistics or Materials Statistics and

Forecasting) might create a new force in

materials-related activities and constitute a

significant loss of functions, influence, personnel, and constituency for existing agencies,

Furthermore, the additional authority to validate data and determine procedures and

classifications for its collection could create

new demands and checks on other agencies,

which will nevertheless still retain data collection functions, The Materials Information

Commission is vested with authority to collect

data, superseding some of the functions of

other agencies. This institutional arrangement

could obviously have the most significant im188
CHAPTER VII

pacts. All arrangements within the maximum

change level (and probably the intermediate

level as well) require new legislation and thus

could require new oversight and budgetary activities in Congress.

5. Support for Increased Public

Participation in Decisionmaking

Conflicts between the public demand for information and the demand for protection of

proprietary information on the part of industry

could very likely arise,

At the incremental level of change, there

could be small but beneficial impacts on public

participation since a referral service (and, to a

lesser extent, improvement in private information systems) could primarily benefit the

public and private interest groups who lack

the established contacts and relatively easy access to sources of information which governmental officials by and large already enjoy.

The costs of providing this service to the

C. IMPACTS ON

Among the possible economic implications

are:

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

Improved ability of the private sector to

meet national needs for materials;

Clarification of materials substitution and

R&D options;

Support for industrial planning;

Changes in the competitiveness of the

materials industry;

Stimulus to governmental/industrial

cooperation in materials policy development and implementation;

Clarification of consumer choices; and

Contribution to land use and regional

planning.

public could be significant over time. Federal

decisionmakers may reap secondary benefits,

however, if informed participation is less apt

to be suspicious, hostile, or counter to

established governmental objectives than less

informed participation. On the other hand,

more available information may stimulate

public interventions through court suits and

administrative proceedings. Both possible outcomes are increasingly likely as statistical aggregation and analysis and official forecasts

are made available (at the intermediate change

level) and as the source of such information is

more publicly visible (at the maximum change

level, with a new executive or independent

agency). The possible conflict between public

demands for information, operating through

the Freedom of Information Act, and the need

for protection of confidential data and information sensitive to industry planning could

become more acute at the intermediate and

maximum levels, as stronger authority for

verification of data is added.

THE ECONOMY

Basic economic conditions and trends include the new concern about the ability of industry to meet national needs under possible

conditions of limited resource availability, and

new realization of the extent to which raw

materials have become dependent on foreign

sources. In addition, during the last decade

pressure has developed to force industry to absorb what were hitherto regarded as external

costs: environmental pollution and social

welfare responsibilities, To the extent that

reliable information is lacking, including credible statistical analysis and forecasts of supply

and demand, standards and criteria may indeed be established which cannot be implemented or enforced or which place unreasonable burdens on some segments of the economy.

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CHAPTER VII

1. Improved Ability of the Private Sector

To Meet National Needs for Materials

Adequate information is essential both to

industry and to Government in trying to maintain the most productive balance between the

basic role of industry in supplying raw

materials and finished goods, and the responsibility of Government to support, regulate,

and in some cases subsidize these activities.

Industry is constrained in information gathering in four ways: (a) by its own resource

limitations; (b) by the complexity and

diffusion of Federal processes of information

gathering and analysis (and policymaking, implementation, and related regulatory activities); (c) by the necessity of protecting

proprietary information whose release would

compromise the competitive position of individual corporations; and (d) by constraints

imposed by antitrust legislation against the

sharing of information, forecasts, and planning

activities. The Government, however, can

ease some of these constraints by centralizing

and aggregating data in such a way that information affecting the competitive position of

individual companies is protected.

At the incremental level of improvement of

materials information systems, no additional

data gathering is envisioned. Industry (in

general) has established knowledge and

sources of information so that a Materials Information Referral Office adds few benefits.

Some assistance to the private sector and to

agencies in improving data collection and

classification is included within the mandate

of the Coordinating Board, so with this alternative there could be small, long-range

beneficial impacts. The additional statistical

analysis and forecasting included at the intermediate level (the Bureau of Materials

Statistics or Materials Statistics and Forecasting) could add significant beneficial impacts

by providing industry with better information

about the analytical basis and assumptions underlying evolving governmental policy, as well

as supplementing the similar analyses carried

on within the private sector.

At the maximum change level, a new executive branch agency could have stronger

authority for verification and validation of

data (and the Materials Information Commission would in addition have authorization for

collecting data). At this level, the possibilities

of conflict over protection of sensitive information, and the possibility of accidental or

deliberate disclosure of such information to

the detriment of corporations, could become

acute, and new legislative safeguards would

likely be needed.

To protect against the possibility of abuse of

information or of excessive control over information, institutional arrangements at the maximum change level (the Materials Statistical

Administration and Information Commission)

are envisioned as having a number of checks

and balances. The Freedom of Information Act

assures that aggregated data will be available

to all. Direct and continuous oversight by GAO

and OMB and periodic review and investigation by congressional committees are provided, Except perhaps for the independent

commission, all proposed arrangements could

retain primary data collection activity in existing agencies, continuing the safeguards now

provided by their charters and enabling

legislation, In general, therefore, improvement

of existing information systems could provide

additional support to industry in meeting national materials needs, The improvements

could significantly contribute to industry’s

capability in this area.

2. Clarification of Materials Substitution

and R&D Options

Materials substitution requires effective

forecasting of availability and costs; it also requires information about materials performance, Research and development programs

may be necessary and must be initiated well in

advance of critical needs. A flow of materials

information, including both technical information and identification of ongoing R&D, is important to this process and has important implications for governmental policy makers as

well as industry.

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CHAPTER VII

At the incremental improvement level,

benefits could be relatively small but could

still have long-range importance because of

improvement of existing information systems

(stimulated by the Coordinating Board), At the

intermediate and maximum change levels,

benefits could be much larger because of the

added consistency and scope of statistical

analysis of rates of development and consumption and forecasts of availability. The requirements for analysis and forecasting that

would be provided by the Bureau of Materials

Statistics and Forecasting, the Materials

Statistics and Forecasting Administration, or

the Materials Information Commission could

be used to alert industry to impending governmental demands and constraints in time to incorporate this information into long-range corporate planning and investment strategy, The

authority to validate information included in

the arrangements for a new Administration or

Commission, as applied to ongoing research

and development and anticipating technological breakthroughs, could pose a particular

threat to industry and require well-considered

legislative safeguards as a part of any enabling

legislation.

3. Support for Industrial Planning

The impacts on corporate planning are potentially important. Industry must now take

into account a range of considerations far more

extensive than the traditional criteria of

profitability: national and international

policies, worldwide economic fluctuations,

political stability in developing countries, environmental and social impacts, consumer

reactions, and changing employment patterns,

among others. The development of technological forecasting since World War II is more recently being paralleled by corporate interest in

social and policy forecasting. In these activities, as will be further discussed below,

large corporations have a great advantage over

smaller companies. Yet small companies may

be particularly important to meeting national

needs, especially in the area of exploring and

opening up new materials sources and in innovation and technological breakthroughs, Improvements in materials information systems

at the incremental level could have some

benefits for small suppliers but little for larger

corporations with an established capability for

using all available sources of data.

At the intermediate level, benefits could

also be proportionately larger for small firms

with little capability for statistical analysis and

forecasting. But at this level and above,

benefits could also become significant for

larger companies and multinationals by allowing them to mesh their own assumptions and

planning with governmental forecasts of national needs, Direct benefits to governmental

decisionmakers could also become significant

because this meshing will facilitate implementation of stockpiling and long-range procurement planning. Clarification of the possible

need for Government-stimulated or subsidized

R&D could allow more efficient long-range

allocation of research budgets, Again,

however, validation of data as related to industrial investment planning requires sensitive legal safeguards.

4. Changes In the Competitiveness of

the Materials Industry

As indicated in the discussion of industrial

planning, the disadvantages of small firms

relative to large firms could tend to decrease

by improving their access to existing data

sources (at the incremental change level) and

by supplying basic statistical analysis and

forecasts (at the intermediate and maximum

change levels), Indirectly, on the other hand,

the tendency to use the same basic forecasts

and analysis, as supplied by the institutional

arrangements with these capabilities, could to

some extent have the same effect as collusion

among the giant industries in the field, and

could discourage small firms from high-risk

ventures which they might otherwise undertake. At the maximum change level, the crea191
CHAPTER VII

tion of a new Administration or Commission

might intensify industry fears of centralized

governmental planning and intrusion of

Government into the private sector. There is

also, allied to the new authority to validate

data, an increased possibility of efforts to influence governmental officials for purposes of

abuse of confidential information.

5. Stimulus to Governmental/Industrial

Cooperation in Materials Policy

Development and Implementation

These potential impacts also relate to

Government and industry cooperation in

materials policy development and implementation, The traditional view has been that extensive cooperation was not desired and was

indeed suspect except in defense and heavily

regulated industries, The long-range trend,

however, is toward increasing interdependence of the public and private sectors in deci -

sionmaking because of the pressure on

resources, the growing complexity and interrelatedness of the national economy, and the increasing costs of technology and of research

and development. Public pressure and the

need for an image of social responsibility have

also brought about decreased resistance by industry toward absorbing what were hitherto

considered externalities or social costs.

Aside from the benefits of governmental

assistance in improving existing public and

private sector information systems at the incremental change level, there will be an additional stimulus to business/Government

cooperation through the shared use of assumptions based on the statistical analysis and

forecasting capability of the Bureau of

Materials Statistics and Forecasting, the

Materials Statistics and Forecasting Administration, and the Materials Information

Commission, The use of the materials cycle

concept as the focus of analysis at the intermediate and maximum change levels, for example, is a rich basis for govern mental/industry cooperation in policy formulation

to the advantage of both, As already noted,

however, the perception of increased governmental activity and involvement in materials

supply/demand planning may in some industrial quarters raise strong fear of increased

constraint and regulation and loss of the advantages of confidential information.

6. Clarification of Consumer Choices

Improvement or change in materials information systems should have little significant

direct impact in the area of consume r

behavior, other than to clarify choices. There

is increased sensitivity to health, safety, and

environmental impacts on the part of consumers, and increasing selectivity among

products on the basis of rising costs, But consumer choices are determined by many variables, and detailed information about materials

is probably an important factor only in a small

minority of cases, Establishment of a Consumer Protection Agency which might draw

on the materials information either through

the referral service or the clearinghouse function could increase impacts somewhat; otherwise, use of the information by individual consumers will probably not be large, except

perhaps with a small group of highly motivated and informed consumers,

7. Contribution to Land Use and

Regional Planning

The impact on land use and regional

development could be significant in development of land use plans, Land use planning is

steadily increasing as the long tradition of

emphasis on growth has come into conflict

with environmental concerns (and rising land

prices). Wise land use planning includes consideration of the relative desirability of alternative uses, including minerals development.

However, materials needs at the national

level, regional objectives for economic

development, and local environmental values

192
CHAPTER VII

imply complex trade-oft’s which must be adjudicated or mediated between public and private sectors, different regions and States, and

different levels of Government.

Impacts at the incremental level of improvement could be minimal, resulting only from

additional convenience in locating data by

local officials (who are generally already informed about existing sources) and improvement in agency and regional or private sector

information systems. At the intermediate and

D. SOCIAL

In the area of social impacts, the following

potential effects were identified:

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

Improved

ment;

Increased

Concern

materials information manageaccess to materials information;

over privacy (individual and

corporate) and control of information;

Movement toward futures research and

interest in alternative futures;

Media treatment of materials-related national problems;

Public understanding of materials-related

national problems; and

Education and curriculum development

in materials-related areas.

1. Improved Materials Information

Management

At the incremental change level, the

Materials Information Referral Office could

provide only marginally additional ease of access to information/materials specialists who

already have established access to existing

sources of data. Improvement in agency

materials information systems and private sector systems could be supported by the Coordinating Board, and could be beneficial, as

maximum change levels, statistical analysis

capability could be of significant assistance, as

could forecasting. But in the latter case, local

authorities are apt to treat national forecasts

skeptically where such forecasts conflict with

local perceptions or priorities. The new Administration or Commission proposed in the

maximum change levels could have minor

short-range detrimental impacts by disrupting

established contacts between agencies and

local authorities,

could the statistical analyses and forecasts

available through various institutional arrangements for intermediate and maximum

change. The authority to validate data and collect additional data (at the intermediate and

maximum levels) could add to the information

load of all existing systems and must therefore

be

2.

counted both as a benefit and a cost.

Increased Access to Materials

Information

Access to information has become more important as the demand for public participation

in decisionmaking (through hearings, law

suits, and other modes of public intervention)

has increased. Under the access policies represented by the Freedom of Information Act, any

improvement in existing systems beginning at

the incremental change level, could mean

progressively larger demand for service to the

public at large, especially to public interest

groups. Public demand could be further stimulated by the higher visibility inherent in a new

Bureau or Administration at the intermediate

and maximum change levels. This service may

be costly. As already noted, the statistical,

forecasting, and analysis capabilities could

also increase demands for full access from the

industrial and research sectors and from other

Government agencies. To some extent,

$)(1. {,7 j ( ) - 77 - 14 193
CHAPTER VII

however, demands on existing agencies could

be relieved at the intermediate and especially

at the maximum change levels, although demands might be increased over present levels

at the incremental change level as the referral

service could tend to stimulate requests for access to agency information.

Improved access to information in the sense

of quality and scope of data could increase significantly at the intermediate and maximum

change levels. Through validation of data

presently provided by the private sector and

by the authority to collect new data independent of existing sources, the maximum change

alternatives (new Administration or Commission) could offer the prospect of the greatest

improvement in the quality as well as the level

of access.

3. Concern Over Individual and

Corporate Privacy and Control

Information

Privacy and control of information

of

is a sensitive area of potential impact. The increasing

use of integrated, computerized data banks has

led to great concern over the possibility of

abuses and to attempts to provide legal

safeguards (e.g., the Privacy Act of 1974), Personal privacy is unlikely to be affected by any

currently proposed changes in materials information systems. There are possible impacts on

corporate privacy (control of “proprietary” information), but these are not relevant at the incremental level of change, However, the actions of the Coordinating Board could, over

time, lead to redefinition of classification and

standards of data collection by stimulating and

supporting incremental improvement in existing information systems. Danger to corporate

privacy is minimized in arrangements creating

a new Bureau or Administration. While there

is added authority to validate raw data collected by Government agencies, the original

authority and responsibility

data remains in existing

Government agencies which

194

for collection of

sources. Those

now collect, aggregate, and disseminate data will continue to

do so under laws and regulations which appear to provide adequate safeguards.

The authority to validate information at the

original source, which is added in the maximum change level (a new Administration or

Commission), is the first of two sensitive

points. Some safeguards against erosion of corporate privacy are assumed. Application of

safeguards in existing statutes (the Freedom of

Information Act and the Privacy Act). direct

monitoring by OMB and GAO, oversight by

congressional committees, and court action.

Protection can be built into the systems technically, but additional legal safeguards may be

needed, The second sensitive point is the

authority provided for the Materials Information Commission to collect new data independently of existing sources and maintain a

detailed data base, This data bank may well

expose information presently held only by private sector corporations and considered confidential. Aggregation of data may not be sufficient to prevent some detrimental impacts on

corporate competitive positions (or public image), and careful trade-offs will have to be

made between public and private interests in

this area.

A related impact area is possible stimulation

of the growth of interconnected data banks

and retrieval systems. These impacts could be

minimal at the incremental change level,

although the Referral Office could be interconnected with search and retrieval systems in

the public and private sectors, and thus stimulate wider use of such systems, Improvement

of existing materials information systems

through actions of the Coordinating Board

could have a similar stimulating effect, and in

fact could be necessary before interconnection

between agency information systems (now in

early stages of discussion or development) is

thoroughly feasible.

The summary data bank envisioned for a

new Bureau (at the intermediate change level)

or for a new Administration (at the maximum

change level), and even more specifically the
CHAPTER VIII

detailed data base to be developed by the

Materials Information Commission, could

ultimately have direct access to and from

agencies. Given the summary data base, interconnection between the new agency, executive and congressional policymaking, and

policy analysis offices (OMB, CBO, OTA,

GAO, CRS, and even congressional committee

offices), or between the new agency and State

and local agencies and Federal field offices appears feasible, The detailed data base envisioned under the Commission arrangement

could make such interconnections a necessity.

4. Movement Toward Futures Research

and Interest in Alternative Futures

Futures research and public attention to the

discussion of alternative futures for the United

States is a growing movement deriving from

wide perception of an increasing rate of social

change and uncertainty about conditions perceived as outside individual control. This

policy-oriented attention to future options

began in academic/professional/research circles (as evidenced by the rapid growth of the

World Future Society, and the establishment

of a number of “futures” journals). More recently it has begun to be institutionalized in

the Federal Government (CRS has a futures

study group, and congressional committees are

now required to give increased attention to

futures options). A number of States have

established commissions or committees to conduct analysis or lead discussions of alternative

futures for the State or region.

The impacts on the movement toward

deliberate design of future options (both within the Government and in the larger public

forum) could become significant over the long

range. This is most likely at the intermediate

change level with the addition of forecasting

capability (the Bureau of Materials Statistics

and Forecasting), and especially with the added visibility gained through the establishment

of a new Administration or Commission at the

maximum change level. Emphasis on the

materials-cycle concept could also help to raise

the level of discourse on alternative futures.

5. Media Treatment of Materials-Related

National Problems

Media treatment of materials-related national problems is increasing, but is often

marked by a lack of depth and sophistication

or by polemical rather than balanced analytical treatment. The media are perhaps the major stimulators of political debate in the United

States and often serve to identify emerging national problems, at least for the public, to influence or constrain the definition of policy

issues, to inject expert or scientific opinion

into the public discussion, and to educate the

public about possible responses (e.g., energy

conservation). Increasingly, a portion of the

print media is becoming specialized to meet

the demands of the newly concerned public

for information about emerging national

problems (e.g., environmental affairs journals,

consumer affairs journals).

While improvement of materials information systems would support media attention to

materials-related problems, this impact could

perhaps assume immediate significance only

at the maximum change level. Here, the

establishment of a new Administration or

Commission could focus media attention on

materials problems with a newsworthy event,

and over time the media could tend to develop

media specialists to deal with that agency. At

the intermediate level of change, however,

there could be longer range development of

margin a 1 impacts because the media,

especially the specialized print media, could

tend to use materials statistical analyses,

forecasts, and analyses only to a limited extent, However, the materials-cycle concept

195
CHAPTER VII

alone, if picked up by the media, could itself work for materials-related public affairs

lead to a new organizing principle or frame- programming.

E. IMPACTS ON INTERNATIONAL POLICYMAKING

The following areas of possible international impact were identified:

●

●

●

●

●

●

Awareness of need for international

materials information;

Operation of multinational corporations;

Increased ability to cope with international materials cartels;

Improved basis for foreign policy on

materials and trade;

Stimulation of the use of satellites for information purposes; and

Support for international discussion of

materials-related problems.

1. Awareness of Need for International

Materials Information

Awareness of the need for international

materials information will be increased by improving materials information systems.

Historically, the advanced industrial nations

have acquired much of their raw materials

from less developed nations. International

policy has been oriented toward protecting

American foreign investment. But the postWorld War II rise of nationalism, and rising resentment over the gap in standards of living

between developed and developing nations,

has decreased the relative economic leverage

of the United States. Developing nations are

exerting control over their resources through

nationalization of foreign investments, cartels,

tax policies, and so forth, The U.S. policy is

moving toward commodity agreements rather

than a free trade posture, Multinational corporations already benefit greatly from their access to information

countries, but other

about materials in many

U.S. industries as well as

the U.S. Government have an increasing need

for foreign materials information,

At the incremental level of improvement,

benefits could accrue more to foreign governments and corporations (to the extent that they

can use the referral service) than to U.S. industry. Even if there is exchange of information,

the United States probably maintains more

comprehensive materials information than

most other countries. At the intermediate and

maximum change levels, however, the

clearinghouse function could make it significantly easier for U.S. industry as well as

policy makers to obtain information about

many countries from one source. The data

could also be incorporated into statistical

analysis and forecasting, A new Bureau, Administration, or Commission (and perhaps

even the Coordinating Board) could have some

authority or, at the minimum, influence to improve categorization and classification of national security information related to

materials. This may have the long-range result

of declassifying some information currently

not available to the public or even to civilian

analysts and policy makers. However, should

foreign governments and industry be reluctant

to provide information, the net effect could be

to the disadvantage of domestic competitive

interests, This might in turn generate proposals for limiting foreign access to information.

2. Operation of Multinational

Corporations

In the area of materials, many multinational

corporations have scope, resources, and scale

second only to national governments, Improving the materials information systems is likely

to have little impact on the operations of the

196
CHAPTER VII

multinationals, or little benefit for them, except that by checking their own forecasts and

analyses against that of an integrated systems,

they may have a common basis for planning

and for reacting to crisis in conjunction with or

as a response to national policies. In a sense,

this could benefit multinational corporations

by making the “rules of the game” more explicit. However, the more significant impacts

may be benefits to U.S. policy makers in increasing their capability to understand the

operations of multinationals.

3. Increased Ability to Cope With

International Materials Cartels

There may also be impacts on the formation

and operation of international materials cartels (combinations of suppliers with control

over supply and/or price of materials). The

OPEC experience has led to fears of similar actions in regard to other materials for which the

United States is dependent on less developed

countries, for example, the pricing actions

taken by the International Bauxite Association. Improved requirements for statistical

analysis and forecasting and for gathering and

validating information (at the intermediate

and maximum change levels) could assist in

developing strategies and contingency plans

for coping with these situations in advance of

their occurrence.

4. Improved Basis for Foreign Policy on

Materials and Trade

Linkages of materials policy with foreign

policy and national security policy are critical,

involving the need for information about alternative foreign sources of materials, the effects

of technology transfer, and foreign aid. Other

areas of concern include stockpiling needs,

substitution possibilities from domestic

sources, trade and investment patterns, and

the potentials of conservation and recycling.

Again, integrated capabilities for statistical

analysis and forecasting and for validating information could provide significant assistance

at the intermediate and maximum change

levels, and the use of the materials cycle concept may become a useful basis for preparing

for international negotiations about materials

and trade.

5. Stimulation of Use of Satellites for

Information Purposes

The use of domestic and international

satellites for developing materials information

may receive some stimulation from establishing the integrated capabilities and the

authority to validate information at the maximum change level, Remote sensing, including

the Earth Resources Technology Satellite

(ERTS)—now called LANDSAT—is chiefly

useful for cataloging above-ground resources.

This technology has aroused international

controversy over possible erosion of control

over national resources by less developed

countries, Use of satellite technology by a

highly visible new Administration or Commission to validate existing data or gather new

data could increase the fearful perception by

other countries of increased U.S. control over

information to serve our own purposes,

However, the benefits of international use of

ERTS could be strengthened by improved data

criteria and classification and by widespread

use of the concept of the materials cycle as a

structuring principle.

6. Support for International Discussion

of Materials-Related Problems

The United Nations’ Organization for

Economic Cooperation and Development, and

other international organizations (including

nongovernmental organs such as the International Institute for Applied Systems Research

and the Society for General Systems Research)

are increasingly active in the area of materials

information and related educational activities.

197
CHAPTER VII

For example,

Sixth Special

in 1974, the UN

Session on “Raw

sponsored a R&D priorities, It is likely that international

Materials and discussion of materials-related problems could

Development, ” and OECD is currently survey- be supported by and also contribute to data ining member countries on materials policy and corporate in the integrated capabilities.

F. IMPACTS ON PUBLIC LAW

The possible legal impact areas considered

include:

●

●

●

●

●

Submission of materials information by

private sources and validation o f

materials data by Government agencies;

Exchange of materials information by

Government agencies;

Application of the Freedom of Information Act to data in materials information

systems;

Revision of reporting requirements for

materials-related industries; and

Promotion of other national policies and

1.

programs.

Submission and Validation of

Materials Data

At present, Government agencies rely primarily on voluntary compliance with their requests for materials data by private sector

sources. While many agencies possess the

authority to compel reporting of materials

data, few agencies are vested with full power

to obtain validation of data submitted beyond

mere visitational authority.

In recent years, recognition of the effects of

corporate activities on national interests has

led to new reporting and disclosure requirements on private industry, such as those found

in environmental and safety legislation (e.g.,

the National Environmental Policy Act and

the Occupational Health and Safety Act) as

well as economic and energy legislation (e.g.,

the Economic Stabilization Act, Federal

Energy Act, and the Energy Supply and Environmental Coordination Act). Such legislation deliberately confers extensive investigatory and enforcement power upon relevant agencies, and some of the current legislative proposals for materials information

systems could continue this trend,

No change in existing agency mandatory

authority is contemplated at the incremental

and intermediate change levels (Referral

Office, Coordinating Board, or New Bureau).

Consequently, no direct impact could arise

from implementing these arrangements.

However, some minor indirect impacts may

result from establishing a Coordinating Board

or new Bureau, as changes in agency data collection practices are made to accommodate the

needs of the information systems and as increased and more detailed requests for information are sought from the materials industry,

Any reluctance by industry to comply voluntarily may cause agencies to exercise existing

authority to compel disclosure and validation

and to seek additional mandatory power

where necessary,

Institutional arrangements at the maximum

change level (a new Administration or Commission) call for expansion of Government

authority to validate data submissions at the

original source. In addition, as at the incremental and intermediate change levels, increased use of existing powers of relevant

agencies may be expected as the integrated

capabilities are developed, with expansion of

other agencies’ mandatory authority ( a

possibility in the face of any damaging noncompliance by industry).

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CHAPTER VII

Authority of the Materials Information

Commission could actually supersede the

authority of existing agencies for data collection and validation, thus consolidating most

statistical responsibilities in a single agency.

However, this would not necessarily mean a

further increase in the collection and validation powers of the Government, since the actual data collection could remain primarily

with existing agencies and could be subject to

existing protections of data sources.

2. Exchange of Materials Information by

Government Agencies

Under existing institutional arrangements,

many different Government agencies are involved in the collection and analysis of

materials information, resulting in duplication

of information and discouragement of

cooperation between agencies. Some efforts

have been made to eliminate a portion of this

costly overlap. However, many existing laws,

regulations, and practices create absolute barriers to sharing of information between agencies,

The commodities information program administered by the Department of Commerce illustrates the problems of interagency cooperation. Commodities statistics are collected and

analyzed by various offices in the Departments of Commerce, Agriculture, and Interior.

Additional economic information is obtained

from the Departments of Labor and Treasury.

All of this information is then used by the

Department of Commerce in its economic

publications and analyses. But other agencies

seeking data used in compilation of these

reports have limited access, and must obtain

the necessary information independently from

the original sources.

The result has been that repeated and often

burdensome requests for information by

Government agencies have in turn generated

complaints from business. Some restrictions to

information exchange were of course created

by legislative or administrative action to promote cooperation by private sources through

guarantees of absolute confidentiality and

anonymity of individual data, and through

strict limitations on access and use of the data

by Government officials.

But as illustrated above, one effect of the

restriction is to increase the burden on the

Government in seeking disclosure of corporate

information. Even Congress is prevented by

these restrictions from obtaining information

necessary to its oversight and lawmaking

functions. New legislation has recognized this

problem, and the current trend is to allow

agencies access on a discretionary, case-bycase basis through appropriate request to the

holder of data,

At the incremental change level, the

Materials Information Referral Office could

have only a minor indirect impact, if any, on

information exchange, since most current

Government users of such information already

know the location of the data sought.

Likewise, the impact of the Coordinating

Board, if any, could be minor and indirect. Use

of materials information under existing conditions of interagency exchange could be aided

by improvements in comparability and standardization of agency data bases.

Institutional arrangements at the intermediate change level could have a significant impact on the actual exchange of information between agencies to accommodate new Bureau

operations. The Bureau would require the continuing cooperation of different agencies in the

collection and submission of materials data for

use in the summary data base and as input to

the referral and statistical capability, Some

discretionary revision of existing regulations

and policies would be required. But, since both

arrangements represent essentially statistical

uses, the required information exchange could

be accommodated under existing restrictive

statutes.

Another minor but direct impact of a new

Bureau is on laws restricting access to original

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CHAPTER VII

data sources for validation purposes by personnel from outside agencies. Any conflict

with existing law could be addressed in the

enabling legislation for the Bureau. Alternatively, existing law could be interpreted as

consistent with provisions of the Federal

Records Act which, under certain conditions,

expands access to include secondary users of

restricted data as long as protection of the

original data sources is maintained,

At the maximum change level. a new Administration could have impacts similar t o

those described for a new Bureau, with the

additional possibility of minor institutional

disruptions (since the Administration would

have authority to determine the conditions of

information exchanges and necessary changes

in other agency data bases). Opportunities at

this level are greater for direct conflict between enabling legislation and existing

statutes which vest certain discretionary

authority in collecting agencies. The Materials

Statistics and Forecasting Administration has

the additional dimension of access to forecasting and analytical information which in some

sensitive areas, may meet with assertions of

executive privilege and national security.

Should such conflicts arise, their resolution

may require court action or specific legislation

and in the interim may cause minor disruption

in some operations.

The Materials Information Commission

could cause significant institutional disruption

accompanying the likely modifications in

Government materials data-collecting activities. Existing patterns and arrangements of

materials data exchange could probably be

replaced or revised. Comprehensive authority

for data collection and validation would be

placed in the Commission, with a reduction in

the corresponding authority of other agencies.

However, agencies would retain most responsibilities for actual collection of data, release of

which to the Commission would be within

relevant agency discretion, On the other hand,

the Commission could exercise discretion over

release of its own primary data to other agencies, Restrictions on disclosure of and access to

Commission data thus could be a major and

recurring issue.

3. Application

Information

Information

The Freedom

552) affirms the

of the Freedom of

Act to Data in Materials

Systems

of Information Act (5 U.S. C.

right of any person to inspect

and copy any Government information, documents, or record’, with several snatnory exceptions, Data would, thus, be subject to the

provisions of the Freedom of Information Act

unless covered by a specific exemption, The

major exemptions are those for privileged and

confidential financial information submitted

by a person, trade secrets, or other information

exempted from disclosure under a specific

statute, Current judicial trends have limited

use of these exemptions. Confidential information is protected from disclosure only

where disclosure would impair the Government’s authority to obtain such information in

the future or where disclosure of financial information would cause substantial harm to the

respondent’s competitive position,

Where a specific statutory exemption exists,

even solely discretionary exemptions, the

courts will generally uphold agency discretion.

However, where only part of a document or

record is protected, the exempt portion will be

deleted and the remainder made public. Often,

mere deletion of identifying information is

sufficient protection for disclosure of remaining information which would otherwise be

held confidential,

Under all arrangements with the increased

availability of materials information, requests

under the Freedom of Information Act can be

expected to increase as discussed previously in

the social impacts section,

Arrangements at the incremental and intermediate change levels (Referral Office, Coordinating Board, or new Bureau) could have no

direct impact on freedom of information, Existing standards and exemptions could continue to apply with a policy in favor of disclosure, while at the same time maximizing

,200
protection of individual respondents. Some

differences in disclosure decisions may be expected under the separate policies and statutes

governing original collecting agencies. which

may be resolved through agency action or

legislation as needed.

In addition. specific statutory exemptions

covering data could he enacted as part of

authorizing legislation or appropriations acts.

However, such special exemptions could limit

access to data and may therefore be inconsistent with both freedom of information and the

overall policy of open access.

Arrangements at the maximum change

level (a new Administration or Commission)

could have their own discretionary and

statutory exempt ions, possibly placing 1imits

on FOIA disclosure requirements. A desired

major impact of all arrangements (except for

the Referral Office) could he the necessary

development (through legislation, regulation,

and/or court action) of specific standards of

confidential it y for sensitive materials information to the ultimate benefit of all parties.

4. Revision of Reporting Requirements

for Materials-Related Industries

During the past seven decades, there has

been increasing Government interaction with

private enterprise in areas of corporate structure and finances, health, safety, labor relations, environment, energy, and raw materials,

among others. The integrated capabilities

could likely have some impact on Government

involvement in the materials industry. At the

least, a revision of and perhaps an increase in

Government reporting requirements for data

from materials corporations can be expected,

This impact could range from minimal for the

incremental change arrangements to perhaps

quite substantial at the maximum change

level. Government/industry interaction could

also be expected to increase with respect to the

administration and operation of materials information systems in general, the development of reporting mechanisms, and the setting

CHAPTER VII

of standards of confidentiality and public disclosure.

The improvements in knowledge of the

materials industry may indirectly lead to other

Government actions such as greater regulation

of scarce materials, Federal incentives for

development of critical resources, and changes

in management policies of federally administered mineral and agricultural resources.

5. Promotion of Other National Policies

and Programs

The energy crisis spurred investigations by

various Federal agencies and congressional

committees with respect to fuel resources and

consumption. Results of these investigations

showed lack of detailed, independent Government information on critical fuel materials.

The establishment of a materials monitoring

apparatus may indirectly contribute to extending this national concern to other critical

materials. The availability of comprehensive

materials information to all branches of

Government, business, and the general public

could be expected to some extent to raise the

level of consciousness of the general materials

outlook. Should serious shortages be revealed,

there could likely be greater pressure for corrective action under existing law and for new

legislation. Arrangements at the incremental

change level are least likely to have this kind

of impact. While the likelihood is greater for

arrangements at the intermediate and incremental change levels, in every case the impact

will depend upon the extent of development

and use of the integrated capabilities.

Another result may be to facilitate the application of existing laws which require advance consideration and planning of major

Government and industry projects. Examples

include the National Environmental Policy

Act and land use planning statutes. Comprehensive data on national materials needs

and resources could be used to make informed

choices between competing values and interests, thus furthering the decisionmaking

policies inherent in such legislation.

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CHAPTER VII

G. IMPACT OF ALTERNATIVE LEVELS OF IMPROVEMENT

1. Incremental Level

Arrangement 1 (Materials Information

Referral Office) envisions the establishment of

a materials referral service in a new or existing

office of an existing materials-related executive agency. Through this service, users can

locate existing information sources and data in

that and other agencies and the private sector.

No major impacts of this incremental level of

improvement were found. There could be

some added convenience for congressional

staff; new users within agencies (who will not

yet have made their own agency contacts);

smaller U.S. firms; foreign industry and

Government officials; public interest groups

(or the general public) who have not yet

developed expertise; and students, teachers,

and researchers.

The Referral Office could tend to stimulate

demands on existing information systems, and

could marginally improve accessibility to such

systems. Requests under the Freedom of Information Act can be expected to increase. Dollar

costs could be relatively low, but the parent

agency could require new positions and funds

and could experience some incremental increase in public visibility and constituency.

Arrangement 2 (Materials Information

Coordinating Boards) adds to the above the

authority to facilitate information exchange by

assisting other Federal offices and agencies to

improve their own data classification and

storage, developing governmentwide goals for

standardized and compatible information

systems, and providing governmental assistance for related improvements in the private

sector. This could add some small but perhaps

significant benefits for users inside and outside Government, for example, assisting a

Federal agency to further develop its

materials-related data collection or assisting

State agencies or private firms just developing

such collections. Development of standardized

and compatible systems could tend to stimulate computerized interconnection between

Federal agencies.

202

Thus arrangements at the incremental

change level could lead to a marginal improvement in support for governmental planning

and priority selection, and could moderately

strengthen the ability of Federal officials to

cope with materials-related problems. These

arrangements could aid in the interagency exchange of materials information, and could

stimulate some possible revision in reporting

requirements for data from the materials industry.

Improved information services, if used by

the private sector, could make a small but significant contribution to industrial planning

and clarification of substitution and R&D options. Parallel improvements in the congressional agencies (e.g., CBO, CRS, GAO) could

upgrade the information support available to

Congress for materials policymaking. Thus,

overall, there could be benefits (as well as dollar costs) for both executive and legislative

agencies, benefits for industry and possibly for

universities and research organizations, and

general public benefits from improved accessibility and quality of materials information.

2. Intermediate Level

Arrangement 3 (Bureau of Materials

Statistics) calls for establishment of a materials

information office within an existing agency,

The office will have a “clearinghouse” function (to provide data collected and analyzed by

other agencies directly to users) as well as the

referral service, and a statistical capability

with a summary data base, The office will

have some authority to check and verify information provided by other agencies, as well as

the responsibility for improvement of existing

systems provided in arrangement Z.

The statistical reports will supplement those

already produced in several agencies, thus

providing some additional benefits for Federal

policy analysts and decisionmakers. By making such statistics generally available, it could
provide larger benefits to the private sector,

chiefly to smaller firms who do not presently

support this activity on their own. The net

effect may tend to offset the information disadvantages of small firms relative to larger

corporations. Similar benefits could accrue to

public interest groups, and the public at large

might be assisted (through the intermediary

activities of the media and educators) to a better understanding of materials-related

problems and the rationale behind governmental policy and proposed actions. This

assumes that the media and educators will

tend to use such statistical reports in the same

way cost-of-living and unemployment figures

are now used.

Perhaps as important, the bureau could provide a focus for the organization and integration of existing Government materials information systems and could permit application

of the materials cycle concept to support the

policymaking process. The new bureau could

represent a significant impact for the parent

agency, in terms of increased responsibility,

budget, and constituency. While other agencies will still retain existing responsibilities for

data collection and dissemination, they may

perceive the bureau as representing a potential

loss of relative influence and public visibility.

Arrangement 4 (Bureau of Materials

Statistics and Forecasting) adds to the above

the responsibility and authority for producing

forecasts of materials supply and demand, and

further analytical support for planning and

policy formulation. By allowing all agencies

and also industry to check their own projections against —and mesh them with—the

bureau’s forecasts, substantial benefits could

accrue, particularly in contingency planning

for materials shortages where concerted actions in the public and private sectors will be

advantageous. It should be noted, however,

that consistency in forecasts can have in some

situations the effects which antitrust legislation is designed to avoid, that is, noncompetitive or even collusive activity among business

enterprises, An indirect, small but cumulative

impact of the forecasting function could be to

support and stimulate the present movement

CHAPTER VII

toward research on and discussion of alternative futures,

The addition of forecasting and analytical

requirements could greatly increase potential

benefits to governmental policy makers by providing more consistency in the assumptions

used for long-range planning by various agencies and the legislative branch, and thereby

potentially contribute to broader consensus on

materials-related issues. These requirements

could add significantly to the ability of Federal

decisionmakers to understand and analyze

materials problems. Federal decisionmakers

may reap secondary benefits if the new requirements lead to more informed public participation which is less apt to be hostile to

governmental objectives. On the other hand,

more available information may contribute to

public interventions through court suits and

administrative proceedings. And local government officials are apt to treat national

forecasts skeptically where such forecasts conflict with local perceptions or priorities,

For the private sector, the forecasts and

analysis could aid in industrial planning,

clarify materials substitution and R&D options, and could provide a broader basis for

Government/industrial cooperation i n

materials policy development and implementation. However, the perception of increased

governmental activity and involvement in

materials supply/demand planning could in

some industrial quarters raise fears of increased constraint. regulation, and loss of

proprietary information. The latter concern

may be accentuated by the possibility of computer interconnection between the summary

data base and other executive and legislative

agencies. Conflicts between the public demand for access to information and the demand for protection of confidential information on the part of industry could very likely

arise. Development of specific standards of

confidentiality y for sensitive materials information will likely be stimulated,

3. Maximum Level

Arrangement 5 calls for the establishment of

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CHAPTER VII

a new executive

Materials Statistics

ment 6 (Materials

Administration) is

ing and analysis to

agency (here called the

Administration). ArrangeStatistics and Forecasting

similar, but adds forecastthe clearinghouse/referral,

statistical, and data processing and collection

capabilities of arrangement 5. In addition, both

arrangements provide for authority where

necessary to verify data at the original source

of collection.

A new agency obviously implies much

greater costs in money and manpower than the

incremental and intermediate levels of change.

It also implies much higher visibility and probably much more responsibility and influence

for materials information than would be the

case for an office in an existing agency. And a

new agency could exhibit a much stronger tendency to aggregate materials information and

analysis. Establishing a new agency could

create a new force in materials-related activities and may constitute a significant loss of

influence, personnel, and constituency for existing agencies. Additional authority to determine procedures for collection and validation

of materials data might lead to new demands

and checks on other agencies.

Conflict between public requests for information, under the Freedom of Information

Act, and industry demands for protection of

sensitive and confidential information could

become more important with a new agency.

The agency’s independent collection and

validation authority will require appropriate

safeguards for protection of data prior to its aggregation into a summary data base.

At the level of visibility, activity, and influence associated with a new agency, the production of forecasts and analysis could serve

to alert the private sector to impending policy

developments and constraints—including

possibilities for regulation or for subsidy

where such are needed-early enough for industry to respond on a timely basis. An important impact at this level could be a strong

stimulation for long-range and contingency

planning and priority selection in both the

public and private sectors, This in turn is

likely to arouse controversy over the role of

the Government in economic and social planning, Nonetheless, the establishment of a new

agency could likely contribute to industry’s

capability to meet national material needs

through improved business planning and

clarification of substitution and R&D options,

The high level of analytical support

capability and the provision of the summary

data bank could provide major benefits to

policy makers in a wide range of areas, from

stockpiling and materials conservation to international trade negotiations and national

security affairs, In all of these areas, however,

information (and forecasts of supply and demand) is only one of many variables; therefore

the impacts, while often significant, are in

most cases cumulative over time and must be

kept in perspective. For example, benefits to

State and local decisionmakers may be outweighed by distrust or resentment of Federal

involvement, resistance to growth in the

Federal bureaucracy, and possibly from disruption of established contacts in the existing

Federal agencies.

Arrangement 7 (Materials Information

Commission) differs from other arrangements

at the maximum change level primarily in two

ways: it proposes that the new agency be an

independent agency rather than an executive

agency, and it also proposes additional

authority for collection of data as needed for

the development of a detailed data base, in

some cases superseding the activities of existing agencies, It should again be noted that in

all other arrangements, data collection (as opposed to accessing, categorizing, classifying,

disseminating, and in some cases analyzing)

remains the responsibility of existing agencies

and falls under the existing safeguards and

restrictions imposed by their enabling legislation, A commission would likely be more independent than the other arrangements but

would have at least three possible disadvantages. Oversight by OMB might be avoided,

and oversight by congressional committees

might be reduced. Also a commission might be

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CHAPTER VII

somewhat out of the mainstream of policy- stitutional disruption is possible since existing

making activity, and its activities could patterns of data exchange and reporting retherefore tend to be duplicated within execu- quirements and procedures will be subject to

tive branch agencies. Finally, significant in- major revision.

H. OVERALL SUMMARY OF IMPACTS

This overall summary suggests which potential impacts of the institutional arrangements are likely to be most important to

society, and whether these impacts are likely

to be beneficial, mixed, or detrimental. Thus,

the summary reflects both the magnitude and

direction of impacts.

The first dimension, magnitude, is an

analytical judgment based on the detailed impacts of identification and analysis of earlier

sections. On the other hand, the direction of

impact, while also based on the specifics of the

analysis, is essentially a value judgment when

viewed from the perspective of society as a

whole. In the U.S. political system. the Congress and the President, as representative of

the people, are the ultimate arbiters of social

value, and have the responsibility to reach an

overall judgment of social benefit and cost of

the arrangements,

1. Impacts Judged To Be Beneficial

The most important beneficial impacts are

manifested at or above the intermediate level

of improvement and change represented by

the Bureau of Materials Statistics and

Forecasting. These impacts include:

. General strengthening of the Federal

Government’s capability to forecast

shortages and crises, make contingency

plans, and thus better understand and

deal with materials-related problems;

. Substantially improve integration and

organization of existing Federal Government materials information systems so as

to provide better support for materials

policymaking:

. Contribution toward a growing capability

and tendency for identification of objectives and priority selection in the

materials-related policymaking functions

in both Government and the private sector; and

. Contribution to the capability of the industrial sector for short- and long-range

corporate planning, including clarification of materials substitution and R&D

options, as a basis for meshing corporate

plans with the needs of society as perceived by Federal policy makers and for

generally strengthening private sector

capability to meet national materials

needs.

Additional cumulative and important impacts (also judged to be beneficial) include:

Reduction in the information disadvantage of smaller firms relative to larger

firms;

Increased public access to information;

Increased public understanding of

materials-related problems through the

media and educational institutions:

Improvements in materials-related public

affairs programming and curriculum

development through application of the

materials life-cycle concept; and

Opportunities for both intergovernmental

(Federal-State-local) and international

cooperation in materials problemsolving.

2. Impacts Judged To Be Mixed

Certain potential impacts must be viewed as

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CHAPTER VII

beneficial or detrimental in relation to an observer’s values. Many of the potential impacts

point toward an overall stimulation of planning processes in the mixed U.S. economy,

with a higher degree of cooperation between

Government and industry, particularly large

corporations, Another possible impact is increased opportunity for monitoring the

materials-related activities of both business

and Government. Similarly, some will

welcome and others will view with alarm the

likelihood that more fully integrated materials

information systems will lead to greater use of

computer-based analysis in support of

materials policymaking. Finally, despite the

clear benefits to private as well as public sector materials decisionmaking, some will distrust or perhaps even resent an increased

role-even if only

Federal Government

materials area.

3. Impacts Judged

informational—for the

and bureaucracy in the

To Be Detrimental

Important potential detrimental impacts,

manifested most significantly at the maximum

level of improvement and change (a new Administration or Commission) include:

● Potential, which with appropriat e

safeguards is probably controllable, for

accidental disclosure or deliberate misuse

or abuse of sensitive information, thus

damaging the competitive position of

some firms;

. Disbenefit to those who have profited

(economically or politically) by control

over limited information or to agencies

whose constituency, funding, or mandate

may suffer disturbance by creation of a

new office or agency; and

. Increased direct dollar costs of materials

information systems integration or improvement.

The first detrimental impact—the potential

for harmful and unwarranted disclosure of private information —apparently could be

avoided at the intermediate level of improvement and change, and at least moderated or

206

controlled at the maximum change level. Most

of the data supplied by individual companies

would be legitimately considered confidential

under the Freedom of Information Act, and

additional protection from harmful public disclosure of sensitive corporate information is

found in many other existing statutes and

regulations, At the maximum change level (a

new Administration or Commission), there is

greater potential for data security problems

associated with extensive use of computer

data bases and interconnections. Thus additional legal, technical, and administrative

safeguards may be needed.

The second impact—a disbenefit to those

who profit by control over limited information

or to other agencies whose constituency, funding, or mandate may be disturbed—is a potential public benefit or is neutralized in the long

run. Disbenefits to particular groups or agencies must be weighed against the public

benefits of an improved informational basis

for public policymaking and better integration

and organization of existing Federal Government materials information systems, among

the other beneficial impacts discussed earlier

4. Conclusions Regarding

Possible Impacts

The impact analysis suggests the following

conclusions:

●

●

The potential impacts of improvement in

organization and integration of materials

information systems in the Federal

Government appear to be primarily

beneficial. Moreover, the likely detrimental impacts in large measure are avoidable

(through use of appropriate safeguards),

controllable (within tolerable limits), or

justifiable in the public interest.

At the incremental level of improvement

and change (establishment of a Materials

Information Referral Office and improvement of existing data bases and systems

through actions of a Materials Information Coordinating Board), all impacts

could be minimal or marginal. Benefits do
not appear to be of major or overriding

significance, and costs appear to be

negligible.

At the intermediate level of improvement

and change (establishment of an Office or

Bureau of Materials Statistics and ●

Forecasting, or the equivalent), many impacts could become significant. At this

level and above, some of the potential impacts appear to be critical or of overriding

importance relative to other trends in

society, the Government, and th e

economy. And even those impacts which

in the short-run are marginal or minimal

may assume cumulative importance over

CHAPTER VII

time. Overall, potential benefits of a

Bureau of Materials Statistics and

Forecasting (or the equivalent) are judged

to substantially outweigh any potential

detrimental impacts,

At the maximum level of improvement

and change (elevation of the materials information office or bureau to agency

status in the form of an Administration or

Commission), several impacts could be

very beneficial, However, at this level the

possible detrimental impacts or costs

could be significant enough to warrant

very careful consideration of the tradeoffs involved,

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Chapter Vlll

IDENTIFICATION AND ANALYSIS OF

PUBLIC POLICY ISSUES ‘
Chapter VIII

IDENTIFICATION AND ANALYSIS OF

PUBLIC POLICY ISSUES

Consideration of the materials information systems alternatives highlight a number of interrelated public policy issues. In

this study, materials policymaking is viewed as the definition, by

high levels of Government and other social institutions, of an

overall plan incorporating goals and suggesting the general

sense of direction or development in materials-related areas.

Based on the impact analysis, the public policy issues likely

to arise in the planning, or operation of one or more of the institutional arrangements are identified in this chapter.

A. INTRODUCTION

In this assessment, the public policy objective implicit in the seven institutional arrangements is to meet the policy-level materials information needs through one or more of a

series of progressively stronger legislative/executive actions to integrate and upgrade

the existing Federal Government materials information systems.

As the impact identification and analysis

make clear, the number and intensity of impacts increase as the level of improvement and

change moves from incremental to intermediate to maximum. The possibility that these impacts will generate conflict amon g

stakeholders increases in a similar fashion.

For the most part, the issues discussion is

oriented toward the broad social, economic,

political, and legal context rather than to

specific arrangements. Based on the impact

analysis, the public policy issues likely to arise

in the planning or operation of one or more of

the institutional arrangements are listed below

in order of relative importance:

. Role of the Federal Government with

respect to private sector materials information;

—

—

—

Authority of the Federal Government

to require disclosure of materials information by business enterprises;

Openness in Government, and the

protection of confidential business information; and

Distribution and control of (and access to) materials information in

society.

. Competition within the America n

economy;

. Growth of governmental planning;

. Future of intergovernmental (FederalState-local) relations; and

● Participant

process,

on in the American poltical

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CHAPTER VIII

B. ROLE OF THE

PRIVATE

FEDERAL GOVERNMENT WITH RESPECT TO

SECTOR MATERIALS INFORMATION

Since much of the information necessary for

public policymaking in the materials area

comes from private sector data, an immediate

issue to consider is whether the Federal

Government has a proper role with respect to

such data. Or, as some question, is expanded

Federal concern over private sector information an unwarranted extension of governmental involvement which runs the risk of unfairly compromising proprietary information

and the competitive positions of private enterprise. This issue area is addressed in this

section from the viewpoint of political

economy, and then in the following two sections from a legal perspective. There are at

least two basic issues emerging with respect to

the role of the Federal Government in meeting

these needs as they relate to the private sector.

First, to what extent should the Federal

Government provide further support for improvement and development of private sector materials information? The Federal

Government already plays a role here, but the

results of this assessment suggest that a more

intensive level of support may be needed.

Much of the information needed for private

sector decisions on materials R&D and

engineering design (e.g., information on

mechanical, chemical, and physical properties,

fabricability, toxicity, and corrosion resistance) is not of direct relevance to Government

policy makers. But this kind of information is

essential to efficient and effective private sector allocation and use of resources within the

broad framework of materials policy. To the

extent that realization of public policy depends on private sector activities, it may be

argued that it is in the public interest for the

Federal Government to provide further support for improving sectoral materials information, even though such information is primarily used by and remains in the private sector.

Second, to what extent does the Federal

Government need additional materials data

from the private sector? As discussed earlier,

the Federal Government already collects a

broad range of materials data from the private

sector, The results of this assessment suggest

that, while new data will be needed (e.g., data

on energy use, transportation, and life-cycle

costs), the Government’s materials information problem is primarily one of inadequate information management, ineffective systems

integration, and insufficient analysis rather

than incomplete data.

Only a small fraction of private sector data

is really necessary to Government policymaking. More information does not mean better information. In order to avoid placing

unnecessary reporting burdens on the private

sector, and to prevent further information

overload of Government policy makers, a

priority-setting process is needed to help identify exactly which additional data are needed,

Given improved materials information

management and analysis in the Federal

Government, a case for limited Government

collection of private sector data can be made

along the following lines. First, private sector

decisionmakers themselves need information

(e.g., supply and demand statistics for critical

commodities) which, for competitive, cost, and

antitrust reasons, among others, ca n

realistically be collected and aggregated only

by the Federal Government. Second, because

the private sector accounts for the vast majority of materials-related economic activities

both at home and abroad, information about

such activities is essential to U.S. Government

policymaking, Third, private sector materialsrelated activities have direct and indirect

effects (benefits and costs, internal and external) on many other sectors of society. The

Government may be regarded as having a

legitimate need for information necessary to

212
CHAPTEK \’111

help ensure that the net effects of private sec- legal, administrative, and judicial precedents

tor actions are consistent with publi c for safeguarding against harmful and unwarpriorities. The constitutional and legal bases ranted disclosure of private sector information

for Government involvement are discussed in in ways which are consistent with public

subsequent sections. policymaking needs and the open access precThe following sections discuss in detail the edents of the Federal Government.

C. AUTHORITY OF THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT

TO REQUIRE DISCLOSURE OF MATERIALS INFORMATION

1. Sources of Federal Jurisdiction

The Federal Government derives its fundamental authority over business activities from

the Constitutional grants of power to the Congress to regulate interstate and foreign commerce, to provide for the national defense, and

to regulate the disposition of property belonging to the United States.

One principal purpose of establishing more

comprehensive and integrated materials information capabilities is to provide Government

agencies with timely, accurate, and credible

materials information for informed decisionmaking. The integrated capabilities are

therefore a continuation of existing Government policy. The arrangements rely primarily

on existing Federal authority to gather

materials data from broad segments of the

economy. Only in institutional arrangement 7

(the Materials Information Commission) is

there an apparent increase in Federal power

achieved through the reordering of existing

patterns of authority. The Federal Government has extensive investigatory powers

which enable it, through various agencies, to

inventory and monitor all phases of materials

production and consumption.

2. Limitations on Exercise of Federal

Authority

In evaluating the validity of assertions of

corporate secrecy in the face of Government

requests for disclosure, two facts should be

remembered; first, corporations are creations

of law; and second, corporations do not

possess the same Constitutional protections of

the Fourth and Fifth Amendments as individuals.

Because corporations are creations of law,

the Government may impose conditions on

their creation, including conditions relating to

provision of corporate information to the

Government.

Corpora t ions are protected against

unreasonable searches and seizures under the

Fourth Amendment, but the standards are

broader than those for individuals. Under current law, courts will issue subpoenas for corporate records if (a) the request is within the

authority of the agency; (b) the demand is not

too indefinite; and (c) the information is

reasonably relevant to the inquiry. United

States v. Morton Salt Co., 338 U.S. 632 (1950).

The Fifth Amendment privilege against

self-incrimination does not apply to corporate

books and records. The Supreme Court held in

Hale v. Henkel, 201 U.S. 43 (1906), that corporations were not “persons” for the purposes

of self-incrimination under the Fifth Amendment. Thus, disclosure is required even where

the information would reveal criminal activity

by the corporation or its officers or employees.

When an agency or official which is vested

with jurisdiction over matters relating to

materials resources and investigatory powers

issues a lawful request in accordance with

relevant procedures and regulations for the

disclosure of corporate information, the request will be enforced over any assertions of

corporate secrecy.

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3. Conclusion

Proposals for establishing comprehensive

materials information capabilities utilizing

modern information management techniques

have been criticized by both industry and

Government as Federal intrusion into private

corporate affairs, An examination of the

sources of Federal authority to gathe r

materials information, the limits on its exercise, and their applicability indicates that

establishing such integrated capabilities would

(a) be consistent with existing recognized

Federal regulatory powers, (b) not greatly expand, if at all, Federal authority over the

materials industry, and (c) not violate any

recognized rights of “corporate privacy, ” given

appropriate use of checks and balances as discussed later.

D. OPENNESS IN GOVERNMENT AND THE PROTECTION OF

CONFIDENTIAL BUSINESS INFORMATION

A major consideration should be the treatment of sensitive data supplied by business

sources. This issue reflects the fundamental

differences of values reflected in demands for

open, public access to information in the

possession of the Government, and assertions

of corporate privacy for the protection of competitive economic advantages. Balancing these

conflicting interests, while at the same time

advancing system goals, will be a substantial

challenge. To that end, the principal laws

governing public access to Government information and restrictions on use of confidential

information are summarized and compared

with some categories of information to be included within the integrated capabilities.

1. Public Access to Information

Public access to materials information and

participation in the formulation of policies are

guaranteed under the Administrative Procedure Act, 5 U.S. C. 551 et seq., the Freedom

of Information Act, 5 U.S. C. 552, and the

Federal Advisory Committee Act, P.L, 92-463,

88 Stat. 770. The chief basis for public access is

the Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) which

provides that any person, including a corporation, has a right of access to any document, file

or other record, including computerized

records, in the possession of any Federal agency or department unless such material is subject to one of nine specific statutory exemptions. Another factor favoring public access is

that many agencies have as part of their

responsibilities, the collection and publication

of materials commodities and resources information and statistics for public use. (See Joint

Hearings on the Domestic Supply Information

Act before the Senate Committee on Commerce and Senate Committee on Government

Operations, 93d Cong., 2d Sess,, at 149-154

(1974).) The principal agencies exercising such

authority are the Departments of Commerce,

Agriculture, and Interior, and the Federal

Energy Administration. The Securities and

Exchange Commission also maintains public

information on the structure, financial condition, and activities of many corporations in the

materials industry. In recognition of the importance of such information to public and private decision making, large quantities of

materials information are already made public

under existing policies and programs,

2. Protection of Confidential Business

Information

The Freedom of Information Act, 5 U.S.C.

552 (b), includes nine categories of information

which are exempt from the compulsory disclosure provisions of the Act. Of particular

relevance to materials information systems are

two exemptions:

214
(a) Matters specifically exempted by

statute, 5 U.S.C. 552 (b) (3). This exemption

is intended to preserve the protections of

confidentiality afforded under almost 100

other statutory provisions. For a partial list

of these statutes, see Federal Statutes on the

Availability of Information, Committee

Print, House Committee on Government

Operations, 86th Cong., 2d Sess. (1960).

(b) Trade secrets and commercial or financial information obtained from a person

and privileged or confidential, 5 U.S. C.

552(b) (4). To invoke coverage of this exemption, the information must be a trade

secret under the strict meaning of the term

or be commercial or financial information

obtained from a person (including a corporation) and privileged or confidential.

Trade secret is construed to mean an unpatented. secret, commercially valuable plan,

appliance, formula, or process, which is

used for the making, preparing, compounding, treating, or processing of articles or

materials which are trade commodities.

United States ex rel. Norwegian Nitrogen

Products v. United States T’ariff Commission. 6 F. 2d 491, 495 (D. C. Cir. 1925), rev’d

on other grounds, 274 U.S. 106 (1927). Privileged information includes matters covered

by traditionally recognized privileges such

as the lawyer-client privilege. Commercial

or financial information is exempt from disclosure, if privileged, or if within the standard of confidentiality set forth in National

Parks and Conservation Association v.

Morton, 498 F. 2d 765, 770 (D.C. Cir. 1974).

Information is confidential under this exemption if disclosure of the information is

likely to impair the Government’s ability to

obtain necessary information in the future

or to cause substantial harm to the competitive position of the person from whom the

information is obtained. Where the Government possesses mandatory authority to obtain the necessary information, the first test

in National Parks is inapplicable since no

impairment of its collection power could occur. This standard places the burden upon

the Government and the source to show a

likelihood of substantial harm to competitive position from disclosure, severely limiting the effectiveness of agency practices

which conferred blanket confidentiality to

information supplied by private sources, in

the absence of a specific statutory provision,

(See Case note, 88 Harv. L. Rev. 470 (1974),)

A significant limitation on the use of these

exemptions is the provision that reasonably

segregable portions of requested documents

must be disclosed after deletion of exempt

materials. Often the deletion of identifying

materials is sufficient to justify the release of

some confidential information. Finally, it

should be remembered that the Freedom of Information Act exemptions do not forbid disclosure; they are discretionary, Documents

and records may be released to the public even

though covered by one or more exemptions

where such release would not constitute an

abuse of discretion or violate other statutory

prohibitions.

18 U.S.C. 1905 imposes criminal penalties

for the unauthorized disclosure of trade

secrets and confidential information by

Federal officials and employees. This statute

covers information relating to “trade secrets,

processes, operations, style of work, or apparatus or to the identity, confidential statistical data, amount or source of any income,

profits, losses, or expenditures of any person,

firm, partnership, corporation, or association, ”

Section 1905 is frequently referred to in other

statutes for its definition of trade secrets and

confidential information. The section does not

create further exemptions to the Freedom of

Information Act, but merely punished the

unauthorized disclosure of such information

whether exempt or nonexempt under FOIA.

Section 1905 has been the basis for several

“reverse freedom of information suits” in

which corporations attempt to enjoin agency

release of documents concerning them pursuant to a FOIA request, The corporate plaintiffs have asserted that release of information

which is exempt under FOIA and which is

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described in section 1905 violates the criminal

prohibitions of section 1905 and, therefore,

constitutes an abuse of discretion reviewable

under the Administrative Procedure Act, 5

U.S.C. 701-06. Charles River Park “A”, Inc. v.

Department of H. U. D., 519 F. 2d 935 (D.C. Cir.

1975); Sears, Roebuck and Co. v. General Services Admin., 509 F. 2d 527 (D. C. Cir. 1974).

Some legal authorities have advanced the

theory, as yet untested, that these cases recognized, at least tacitly, the right of a corporation

to sue to prevent substantial harm to its competitive position from unauthorized disclosure

of confidential information and might serve as

precedent for a suit against the Government

and/or an official or employee disclosing such

information for any resulting damages.

In addition to the criminal sanctions of section 1905, many statutes dealing with specific

commodities or agencies contain criminal

penalties for unauthorized disclosure of protected information. Moreover, the Federal

Reports Act, 44 U.S. C. 3501 et seq., contains a

provision which sets forth conditions under

which confidential information obtained by

one Federal agency may be released to other ‘

Federal agencies and extends the application

of any legal restriction on the use of such information by the first agency, including

penalties for unlawful disclosure, to the

officers and employees of the second agency.

The Federal Reports Act in combination with

specific statutory grants of confidentiality

preserves the confidential classification of information obtained from private sources.

A major concern of Government and

materials industries representatives interviewed in connection with this assessment

was that broad public access to the system

would result in the unwarranted disclosure of

corporate “proprietary information. ” Proprietary information is not synonymous with confidential information, privileged information,

or trade secrets, as previously defined, nor is

it, in itself, a category of protected business informat ion, While assertions of corporate

secrecy and privacy are an insufficient basis to

refuse disclosure of corporate information to

Government agencies, some recognition is

granted to the needs of business entities to prevent certain sensitive information from being

revealed to their competitors and the public,

Government agencies recognize this legitimate

concern and carefully protect such sensitive

matters to preserve their good relationships

with their information sources, Corporate

“proprietary” information is protected from

public disclosure to the extent that it comes

under one or more specific statutory provis ions,

3. Conclusions

Most of the data supplied by individual

companies would be legitimately considered

confidential under the Freedom of Information

Act, and additional protection from harmful

public disclosure of sensitive corporate information is found in many other statutes and

regulations. The design of a statistical information system also offers protection to individual company data. The system is primarily concerned with statistical trends and

would use information aggregated from individual reports. Anonymity of individual data

sources could be maintained with the use of

special identifying codes and internal system

security which would limit access to individual reports and reduce possibilities of accidental disclosure. It is probable that the

system would utilize statistical sampling

methods and would survey only a small number of firms in each of the many sectors of the

materials industry. This approach would not

result in the accumulation of massive files on

each company in the materials industry. Acceptance of the system would be promoted by

advance determination through regulatory or

legislative action of the standards for

classification of confidential information and

for the availability of individual company

reports for inspection by other Government

agencies. The interaction of the system with

existing Government policies on openness and

confidentiality would result in a materials in216
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formation system which offers comprehensive ment and public users and which utilizes and

and accurate materials information to Govern- protects sensitive corporate information.

E. DISTRIBUTION AND CONTROL OF

MATERIALS INFORMATION IN SOCIETY

American society faces a difficult dilemma

when it comes to the distribution and control

of information in important areas 1ike

materials. On the one hand, conditions of information overload and complexity are such as

to require better management control over information, for which computers and other information technology are some of the most

useful tools available. Yet at the same time,

there is great concern over possible threats to

privacy and excessive concentrations of information which are made possible through data

banks and interconnected computer systems.

In this respect, concern has been expressed

that the institutional arrangements will lead to

excessive centralized control over materials

information,

Protections against abuse have been built

into the arrangements in the following ways.

First, arrangements like a super-statistical

agency (which would centralize in one institution all materials information activities of the

Federal Government) have been ruled out,

This kind of arrangement appears to constitute a clearly excessive concentration of

control (and power), is contrary to many existing statutes, and represents a potential administrative nightmare. Second, the legislative

mandate and anticipated budget restrictions

for each arrangement are intended to limit

the scope of activities to priority information

needs.

This limitation is founded on the premise

that, while information is essential to

materials policymaking, too much information

can be just as harmful as too little. However,

as the various sectors of society become more

interdependent and tightly linked, as is the

case with regard to materials, information on

external factors and interactions becomes

more important. Some degree of centralization

is required to provide such information. Essentially, the purpose of the integrated

capabilities, when viewed in these terms, is to

provide the degree of centralization (through

integration and upgrading of Federal Government information systems) necessary for provision of adequate information on the aggregate interactions and interfaces between the

major social entities in the materials-related

sectors of society. The capabilities are not primarily concerned with the internal workings

of specific institutions (e.g., specific corporations), except to the extent validation of internal data is necessary to ensure reliable summarized and aggregated data.

Third, each arrangement is subject to a

number of checks and balances, in addition to

the necessary technical security measures: (a)

the basic grant of authority which requires

that Congress, the President, and the public

have access to all policy-relevant information,

subject to protections of data sources and

proprietary information; (b) the application of

existing statutes (e.g., the Freedom of Information Act, Privacy Act, Administrative Procedures Act, and Federal Reports Act); (c) the

direct monitoring of activities by both OMB

(for the President) and GAO (for the Congress); (d) periodic oversight by relevant congressional committees; (e) the authorities of

existing agencies which by and large protect

business firms from disclosure of sensitive information; (f) the necessary cooperation of existing agencies for actual collection of

materials data and cooperation of the business

community in provision of such data; and (g)

the exclusion of any substantive policy or

regulatory responsibilities other than those

relating directly to materials information.

The intent of these checks and balances is to

help ensure that the arrangements can achieve

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CHAPTER VIII

their primary objective of providing materials or the detailed data on which it is based, Overpolicy makers with aggregated materials infor- all, the arrangements are intended to augment

mation from a centralized location, but with- and build on, but not supplant, the essentially

out permitting excessive centralized control decentralized systems now operative,

over (or potential abuse of) such information

F. COMPETITION WITHIN THE AMERICAN ECONOMY

In view of the fact that information and

knowledge are keys to the competitive position of most American businesses, concern has

been expressed as to how competition among

profit-minded organizations in the United

States can be influenced. Government’s traditional role in America has not been to control,

but rather to promote competition in most

areas of the economy-except in certain cases,

such as public utilities, where competition has

been deemed undesirable, When construed as

essentially a governmental intervention into

the economy in the areas of materials, how

will the dynamics of the economic system be

affected? Will they tend to undermine or

strengthen current patterns of competition?

1. Materials Substitution

From the standpoint of producers who accept the reliability of data and use it, an improvement in the information flow will provide new and timely knowledge concerning

alternative sources of materials supplies, and

will allow businesses to better select from

among various substitution options, These

developments will obviously affect competition. The competitive edge of some companies

will be enhanced, since new data would lead,

for instance, to innovative combinations of

materials for more efficient production processes, more effective allocation of scarce

resources, and improved product lines.

Through the use of improved data, the

realization of production alternatives will improve or change the life and type of products,

and therefore will alter present patterns of

competition. If new products last longer and

are more useful, the quality of competition is

enhanced in that other resources are conserved. Producers will experience and adjust

to new dynamics in product turnover and

variety as a result of the continuing utilization

of data. In competing for a specified market

which is sensitive to product quality and type,

producers will be continually concerned with

improving or altering the type and life of products so as to appeal to consumers, better use of

scarce resources, and thereby increase profits,

2. Materials Research and Development

Another topic which deserves attention involves the relationship between the institutional arrangement and private research and

development. Traditionally, materials information resulting from R&D has contributed to

new products, many made with substitutes

and synthetics, Data will to varying degrees

influence this private R&D, thus affecting

competition, Some R&D activities will undoubtedly be expanded in areas which in the

past have consumed scarce resources, because

data will suggest where the greatest savings

and profits may be made, In other areas, R&D

may be reduced or eliminated due to market

rejection of a specific product which must rely

upon key materials in short supply.

Due to shortages, industrial R&D may focus

on possible technological innovations which

would increase the efficiency of recycling and

waste reduction, or allow greater use of abundant resources which may be substituted for

more scarce ones. In other areas, for example

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CHAPTER VIII

copper, R&D addressing new mining technologies could contribute to lower costs, and to

controlling pollution and land use problems

associated with production and solid waste

disposal. It may be possible to promote more

R&D cooperation between some companies,

particularly where the return has been low in

the past. In other areas, R&D competition may

increase because of high returns. providing

companies with the knowledge of where investment should be made and where profits

are likely to be greatest.

3. Industrial and Business Planning

With implementation of the integrated

capabilities, companies will have an increased

opportunity to improve their planning processes and activities, which are often closely

associated with research and development.

Improved capabilities would help in shifting

the content and perception of developing industrial plans. In the past. information about a

specific resource or material has generally

been quite limited at a given point in time;

plans have been formulated on the best available data, with resources allocated accordingly.

Improved knowledge concerning a particular

trend in materials allocation, location, and rate

of depletion should enable the relevant

policy makers to reduce potential costs and

risks while planning new and better lines of

products,

Where reasonable profits can be made

through production of these new products,

corporate policy makers may increase the

availability of resources by turning more to

conservation or rationing activities, which will

assure supplies for a longer period of time.

Since more comprehensive, reliable, and

timely information about materials will be

available from the materials information

systems, planning and related managerial

functions will play a large role in increasing

the likelihood of survival of a specific business

enterprise, given the forces of a competitive

market. Increasing the efficiency of production activities will result in better use of

resources and reducing the relative costs of

production, thereby improving the quality—if

not the quantity-of competition,

4. Competition Among Smaller

Versus Larger Firms

As a consequence of the growth of alternative sources and substitutes of materials, and

changes in R&D and planning activities, the

question arises as to a change in relative

market competition among smaller and larger

firms. It is difficult in many instances to determine with certainty whether competition here

will increase or decrease. It is not clear, for example, how the large volume and improved

quality of data would help small businesses.

since they do not deeply engage in long-range

planning. By contrast, this data would be of

value to larger firms. Yet the smalle r

businesses may also benefit from the data,

since they now tend to be at a distinct information disadvantage,

Many smaller firms usually do not have

adequate analytic capabilities even to handle

the data already available, So more and better

data alone are not likely to make much

difference. However, if small firms are offered

data as well as analysis, an improvement in

their competitive position relative to larger

firms could be stimulated, Even so, it seems

clear that information per se (whether data,

statistics, forecasts, and/or analysis) will not in

any case lead to a revolutionary competitive

realinement for small business.

5. Role of the Federal Government

The competitiveness of the American

economy may also be affected by changes in

the policies of the Federal Government. The

role of Government policy is in part to ensure

adequate materials supply and reserves, while

simultaneously meeting other goals such as

maintaining environmental quality. Integrated

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CHAPTER VIII

capabilities could stimulate consideration of

changes in governmental regulatory activities—toward greater intervention into the

economy, or toward deregulation,

Government’s need to affect economic activities, in view of the materials situation, may

induce changes in trade legislation, corporate

antitrust laws, standards for product performance, or requirements concerning environmental quality. In addition, there could

develop changes in the U.S. tax system toward

domestic and foreign operations, such as to increase or decrease import/export restrictions,

Other governmental actions, such as new

taxes or subsidies, could be taken to encourage

industry to cooperate with national goals concerning recycling and reuse. Based on improved data, the Government might also encourage life-cycle cost accounting, so that the

final cost of a product will more closely reflect

the total social costs of producing it. The

Federal Government, as the largest single consumer, will also tend to influence market

changes through its own buying activities,

which may for example alter competition for

various governmental contracts.

6. Conclusion

In conclusion, the functioning of the

economy and the society upon which it depends should be improved. Both producers and

consumers will be subjected to the reality of

the general materials situation in this country

and to detailed knowledge about it. One is

complementary to the other, They may be two

different segments in the market structure, but

they are both part of the same market environment,

G. THE GROWTH OF GOVERNMENTAL PLANNING

An important political issue involves the

way in which integrated materials information

capabilities are likely to relate to local, State,

and national governmental planning in the

United States. The institutional arrangements

do not make plans themselves. Their mandate

specifically excludes any planning or policymaking responsibilities. except for plans and

policy on materials information. However, the

arrangements are designed to support planning and policymaking processes in other

agencies of the Government.

1. Public Planning in the United States

Public planning in the United States has always reflected the major traits of the

American political process at any particular

point in its evolution. Because power is dispersed throughout the political system, no one

power center exists for planning without a

complex system of checks and balances and

separation of powers to guard against abuses

in decision making and to protect the legitimate interests of all major sectors within

society. The United States thus does not maintain a formal, highly structured planning process. Plans evolve in large part through the normal workings of the political process, with

multiple actors and power disperse d

throughout the private and public sectors.

Poor planning may be worse than no planning. In order to plan effectively and efficiently in the area of materials and resources,

decisionmakers need the most timely, comprehensive, and reliable information available.

Better information does not necessarily mean

improved planning, but it does usually tend to

affect the planning process, especially if it is

available in an accurate, useful, condensed

form which will facilitate decisionmaking,

Decisionmakers must avoid information overload, even in an area as critical as materials

shortages. More importantly, key decisionmakers need high-level forecasting and

analysis which will help their decisions

address the true complexities and interrelationships which must be considered.

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CHAPTER VIII

2. Materials Planning at the Federal

Level

The executive branch has been unable to

plan effectively for real and potentia l

materials shortages because of inadequate

organization, conflicting or uncoordinated

data, and insufficient analytical resources.

Overlapping policy functions exist throughout

the executive branch, leading to fragmented

policymaking in many instances. Moreover,

the Federal decision making process is crisisoriented and, many concerned interest

groups—both consumers and producers—have

limited inputs. Although some steps have been

taken during the 1970’s to improve materials

policymaking and planning resources at the

national level, they nevertheless continue to

be generally inadequate for coping with present and future problems.

To varying degrees, each of the seven institutional arrangements would potentially

help in overcoming some of these Federallevel materials planning problems, by reducing

fragmentation and overlapping in materials

data responsibilities shared by various Federal

agencies. This should make for more informed

and timely short-run materials decisionmaking at all levels of Government. In some areas

where long-range Federal planning is particularly needed, such as in energy and

mineral resources, it should also promote a

continuous planning process as opposed to the

ad hoc, crisis-oriented process which has

historically been evident. Further, improved

information would tend to generate additional

change in the traditional institutional structure

in materials planning since its existence would

likely make executive and congressional

leaders more aware of the need for less fragmental ion in responsibilities for meeting

short-run and long-run problems.

Planning would also be facilitated under

some alternatives by improving the ability of

decisionmakers to map out policy options and

priorities for a higher level of responsiveness

to materials questions. And finally, group participation could be increased because of data

collection, clearinghouse, and referral functions available; the resulting new inputs from

these groups would strengthen the democratic

aspect of Federal materials planning.

3. State/Local Materials Planning

While Federal materials planning could potentially be improved, the same is true, at least

in part, at the State and local levels. For example, data and trend projections would be useful

to local and State governments which are accelerating their land use planning activities.

These activities are directly related to

materials issues, as in the case of restrictions

on new development (to preserve land for

forests, agriculture, parks, etc.) affecting the

building trades, projected highway systems,

energy conservation, and so on. Moreover,

land use management provides an excellent

example of State and local planning which is

(at least in theory) “comprehensive” in nature,

affecting so many fundamental aspects of

everyday life. In the past, many land management decisions, such as those relating to protection of agricultural lands, were based upon

guesses and assumptions as to future materials

supply and demand.

The same potential contributions are likely

in State planning, where the “quiet revolution

in land use control” has accelerated since the

late 1960’s. The States do not want to be told

by the Federal Government how to plan the

use of land. However, State governments do

need data and projections concerning the interrelationships between land, environment,

industrial and commercial expansion, and new

residential development of large-scale proportions. More generally, they need a systematic

means for inventorying, monitoring, and

evaluating the desirability of particular types

of land usage, and for judging the effectiveness of different growth managemen t

schemes. They now have information for

these activities only in the primitive sense of

dated highway and tax maps, limited field

80- 678 () - 77 - 16 221
CIIAPTER VIII

work, and aerial photography, Improved supplementing these traditional sources of

statistics and forecasting would be of value in data for planning purposes.

H. THE FUTURE OF INTERGOVERNMENTAL RELATIONS

Representatives of State and local governments have expressed concern over the implications for intergovernmental relations, A

key question is: What new developments

would accompany the implementation of integrated materials information capabilities?

1. American Federalism and Materials

Problems

Materials supply problems are frequently

regional, national, or even international in

nature, Although State and local action is essential to the implementation of materials

programs, State and local officials have

necessarily relied in large measure on the

Federal Government for formulating these

programs. Moreover, possible alternative solutions to materials problems may entail great

expenses, and thus, for example, few States

have found the funds for developing materials

data base information systems for assisting in

problemsolving, It follows that, for the most

part, the States maintain a reactive rather than

an active posture. They cannot initiate broadranging materials policies and generally cannot afford sophisticated information systems

as one means of assisting in solving problems.

2. Intergovernmental Cooperation

intergovernmental cooperation might be improved where State and local governments are

able to draw upon and use data in solving local

and regional problems. Obviously, regional

data would be valuable to these officials,

Energy data would be useful for a wide range

of State conservation programs, Integrated

capabilities would assist in responding to the

1975 Governor’s Conference proposal concerning the creation of an interstate energy

clearinghouse. Similarly, the utility of integrated materials information capabilities was

suggested in a tentative draft of the energy

facilities siting resolution adopted at the Conference, stating that “. , . the Federal Government can take the lead in amassing the information on which every level of government

and private actions can be most confidently

based, The Federal Government should accumulate data from public and private sources

and establish a framework in which energy information is maintained accurately, completely, currently, and in uniform modes. ”

(National Governor’s Conference Tentative

Draft of Resolutions, New Orleans, June, 1975,

page 16, mimeographed.)

Integrated capabilities could also positively

affect the fact that different States may have

opposing interests in certain materials areas,

as in the case of States dependent on others for

petroleum but still seeking the most reasonable prices possible, In such instances, through

improved data, they may at least be able to appreciate more fully the perspectives, problems,

and concerns of other States or different parts

of the Nation.

All this is not to suggest, however, that a

majority of State and local leaders will

regularly utilize the integrated capabilities

soon after implementation, They must clearly

provide relatively reliable, timely, and comprehensive data. Having met this condition, if

the institutional location is generally acceptable to them, and is largely a collection and

clearinghouse facility, its usage by State and

local officials should steadily increase over

time. This would be a positive contribution to

cooperative federalism.

3. Intergovernmental Friction

Just as greater intergovernmental cooperation may indirectly result from integrated

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CHAPTEK VIII

capabilities, so too may many frictions develop

among actors in the Federal system because of

their existence. States with substantial

resources might oppose any further Federal

knowledge of, or certainly influence over the

use of, their materials. From the State standpoint, materials development and conservation programs should not be required through

Federal law. This could avoid providing a

symbol for a States rights reaction. even if

State fears as to Federal influence were unwarranted, which might trigger some greater

degree of regionalism and interregional friction among the States, or influence States to

adopt more narrow points of view with

reference to their own resources.

These potential sources of intergovernmental conflict could likely lead to discontent if

the collection and clearinghouse/referral functions are not separated from the analytic functions. A strong preference for such a separation surfaced during the 1975 Governor’s Conference meeting, where the creation of ERDA

was praised as a notable illustration of how

regulatory functions should be separated from

research, development t, and promotional

capacities. State opposition to the analytic

function essentially reflects the fear of another

Federal materials agency ultimately possessing regulatory powers. States could also grow

I. PARTICIPATION IN THE

A chief issue emerging from the question of

creating and implementing the integrated

capabilities concerns the ways in which they

will relate to the democratic political process

in the United States. This issue is analyzed

here through the central organizing question:

How will integrated capabilities contribute to

more widespread political participation and

influence by various interests in the public and

private sectors?

1. Role of

Additional

Information

information per se will not ensure

to question whether political pressure was

being exerted on the process of designating

“policy options. ” If the above developments do

not occur, however, State and local governments could be aided through a mor e

centralized location from which they could request reliable and comprehensive materials

data.

4. Conclusions

With regard to federa1ism, i n teg ra t ed

capabilities will assist State and local governments in understanding and perhaps coping

with their materials problems. They may still

rely primarily on the National Government for

financial and technical assistance, and for

broad materials policy affecting resource

development, distribution, and usag e

throughout the country, But valuable roles

which State and local governments can play

include policy implementation; providing data

to Federal agencies. and identifying public

needs as part of the national materials decisionmaking process. However, integrated

capabilities can best contribute to a spirit of intergovernmental cooperation by providing

materials data and clearinghouse/referra1 services, not high-level policy analysis which some

State and local officials believe could lead to

further regulatory powers located within

Federal agencies.

POLITICAL PROCESS

greater participation or influence by public or

private groups in the political process. Information is, however, a political resource. It provides one basis from which groups may more

effectively participate and exert influenceprovided that they choose to use it and provided that they have access to key political actors.

Obviously, one step in the political participation process involves persons seeking and acquiring data from which they may express an

informed view. Without timely and accurate

information, participation is less meaningful

and the ability to influence policy is undermined. As participation diminishes. so does

223
CHAPTER VIII

the potential or actual power of that individual

or group within the social fabric. It follows

that reasonably widespread participation is a

crucial underpinning for democratic government. By being able to participate in the political process, individuals and groups may consent to the policies which govern their lives,

and by being able to bestow or withdraw their

consent, they may ultimately hold government

more accountable.

2. Reduced Barriers to Participation

In varying degree, a particular alternativ e

would contribute to removing some of these

barriers to wider political participation in

materials policy formulation. Theoretically,

group participation could increase, remain

roughly the same as it has been in the past, or

decrease, But most changes are likely to be in

the direction of increased participation. Many

interest groups and governmental officials in

the public sector do not have ready access to

important data on materials, and they will thus

tend to benefit from integrated materials information capabilities.

Each of the seven institutional arrangements

will tend to facilitate increased participation

by those individuals and groups which previously have lacked access to public data

because of its cost, the lack of knowledge of

how to acquire the data, or a number of other

practical reasons. The alternatives, by contrast, are unlikely to reduce access and current

levels of participation by groups in the public

or private sectors, although there may be shifts

in the degree of influence exerted by these individuals or groups on policy formulation.

On balance, integrated capabilities could provide the basis for higher levels of participation

by all public or private groups, more informed

and valid criticisms of specific materials

policies, and ultimately a more responsive

political system. When materials problems occur to the extent that the general public must

change its basic lifestyle, or to the point where

profit-making companies lose money, pressure

could be exerted more readily on political

decisionmakers who had ineffectively used—

or failed to take into account-data to anticipate and cope with those problems. Such participation and influence could ultimately contribute to a political system more accountable

to all groups.

3. Wider Range of Participation

In terms of the Government, Federal executive

and legislative agencies will participate to a

greater extent in the sense of engaging in additional data collection, clearinghouse, and

analysis activities. These activities will make

new data inputs available to the political process. Participation, in the form of added inputs

from existing Federal agencies, should provide

decisionmakers in the public sector with data

and forecasts previously unavailable or

difficult to acquire. In particular, this would

mean more informed participation in materials

policymaking by elected and appointed

officials at all levels of government, if they are

aware of and use the services provided.

Although their materials problems tend to be

local or regional in nature, State and local

officials throughout the Nation would also

have a timely source of information with

which to anticipate future developments and

to gain an overview of related problems in adjacent areas.

Political participation by public interest, environmental, and trade association groups will

increase since many of the additional services

provided by Federal agencies will be available

to the general public for minimum reproduction costs. These groups will naturally gain

some additional access to information and

analysis simply by virtue of increased services

and a higher level of coordination of Federal

activities. Under the current materials information arrangements, fragmentation of

responsibility is confusing and frustrating to

the average individual and group inexperienced in acquiring data. By contrast, integrated capabilities will be located in one office

or agency, thus substantially improving its

224
CHAPTER VIII

visibility and perhaps accountability to interest groups and the public generally.

This, in turn, will promote public use of

materials data and analysis for participating in

and influencing the policymaking process. A

common data base will provide an improved

foundation for communications with political

representatives, which will tend to lead

toward more informed interaction among relevant actors. Likewise, a shorter response time

for requests and the clearinghouse function

will be useful to small groups and individuals

who cannot easily keep up with current

developments. More specifically, certain

features, such as the materials life-cycle data,

will be of value to particular environmental

and industrial groups.

Depending on the alternative, a mix of voluntary and mandatory data submission standards

will exist which will not drastically change

those currently operative. Thus, in most cases,

American industry will continue to exercise a

basic choice as to participation through inputs

of data it chooses to provide the Government.

Other factors held constant, the private sector’s participation should not substantially

change, and industry will not lose a significant

level of influence in the political process. The

level of participation by the private sector

would not be basically altered, since the agencies with which industry has developed positive relationships would still be performing

most of the same materials functions as in the

past.

4. Conclusions

Integrated capabilities are likely to contribute

to the goal of broader political participation

and influence by all public and private groups

in American society, Materials information

can be an important political resource, and a

basis for more widespread political participation by removing some of the obstacles to information access, thus allowing the Nation to

better approach the democratic ideal of a

broadly-based political system for all those

who want to participate. On the other hand,

integrated capabilities are unlikely to reduce

access and participation by the vast majority of

groups which now provide inputs to public

policy formulation, although there may be a

relative change in the amount of influence

these groups exercise. The results of this

greater access and usage will be a more informed political exchange among participants,

and ultimately a political system which is

more responsive and accountable to a variety

of groups in American society.

225

Appendix A

MATERIALS SUBSTITUTABILITY

A. INTRODUCTION

The possibilities for and potential consequences of substitution are important to all

who are concerned with materials supplies

and usage. In situations where normal supplies

of a material are threatened or constrained,

one of the first questions asked is: What is a

suitable substitute?

Experience with problems of materials

availability, most recently stemming from the

shortages of 1973-74. has encouraged users to

examine alternative materials and designs. Impacts of those shortages on the national

economy have led Government policy makers

to inquire about the prospects and effects of

substitution as a means of alleviating or avoiding future serious consequences from shortages of essential materials.

For these reasons, the technology assessment examined the information and data requirements of substitution analyses, with a

view toward assessing how this capability

might be incorporated in a new integrated

materials information system. The study examined the following aspects:

● The meaning of the term “materials

substitution”;

● The information/data required by various

classes of decisionmakers for materials

substitution decisions;

● The present sources of information/data

to make such decisions;

● The gaps in such information and data;

and

● The costs involved and the time required

for developing the essential system

capabilities for substitution analyses.

For purposes of this study the term

“materials” is defined very broadly. It includes

all substances used by mankind, except food

and drugs. Materials are classified in two

ways, (1) in accordance with their intended

use, and (2) relative to their state of manufacture. The first of these classifications includes

the

●

●

●

following categories:

Physical/Structural materials include all

substances in raw, semifinished and

finished form used in the manufacture of

goods, which remain in identifiable form

during a period of use. They include:

metallic minerals, metals, construction

minerals, wood, paper, cotton, wool,

plastics, and ceramics.

Reagents and Intermediates include all

substances which are used in the

manufacture of a finished product but do

not remain as part of it. Such substances

generally include chemicals, fertilizers,

abrasives, solvents, and industrial gases.

Energy/Fuels materials include the

various mineral fuels and products

refined from them, They include :

petroleum, coal, natural gas, natural

gasoline, and liquified petroleum gases.

The second way to classify materials is according to state of manufacture; major categories include:

229
APPENDIX A

• Raw , semifinished, and finishe d

materials includes ores, concentrates, and

basic metals and alloys. Also included are

agricultural and wood products.

● Components/applications include all

parts of consumer and industrial durables. Also included are pesticides, pharmaceuticals and household cleaners, as

well as finished grades of petroleum

products,

● Systems include all finished household

and industrial durables. The term

“systems”, as applied to energy/fuels and

reagents and intermediates, usually refers

to the method by which these classes of

materials are used.

Table A-1 is a three-by-three matrix using

both classification schemes as axes. The argument for classifying materials in these two

ways is to consider the possibility that

materials substitution may vary among

materials classes.

The term “substitution” also needs definition, From the examples given in table A-1, it

is clear that the concept of substitution cannot

be limited simply to replacing one material

with another. Substitution also involves

replacing one process with another or changing the functional characteristics of a material

or part. Further, these three classes of substitution—material, process, and function-can occur at any of the various stages in the resource,

processing, and manufacturing cycle, from

raw materials through primary products, parts

manufacture, and components to final system

design and assembly. Examples of these three

classes of substitution are given in table A-z.

Table A–1.-Examples of Substitution Involving Various Classes of Materials

Category of Material,

by State of Manufacture

Raw, Semifinished, and

Finished Materials

Components/Applications

Systems

Physical/Structural

Alunite for bauxite

Raw polyester for raw cotton

Alcoa’s chloride aluminum

reduction process for the

Hall process

Basic oxygen furnaces for

open hearth steel-making

New copper alloy for present alloy in auto radiator

Aluminum alloy for copper

alloy in auto radiator

Air-cooled auto engine for

water-cooled engine

Mass Transit for

automobiles

Video phone communications for busines s

transportation

CLASS OF MATERIAL-BY USE

Reagents and Intermediatedes

Recovered sulfur for

Frasch sulfur

Natural brines for rock salt

Mining of natural soda ash

for Solvay process soda

ash

Phosphoric acid from furnace phosphorus for wet

process acid

Hydrochloric acid pickling

for sulfuric acid pickling

Direct application to soil of

anhydrous ammonia for liquid application of ammonium salts

Not applicable

En.rgy/Fuels

Western coal for Eastern coal

Gasified coal for natural gas

Fuel oii

Formed

for natural gas

coke for metallurgical coke

Lead-free gasoline for regular

Propane for fuel oil

Geothermal for coal-fired steam boiler

Solar heating system for natural gas

system

230
APPENDIX A

Table A–2.—Examples of Three Broad

Classes of Substitution

One Material for Another

Aluminum for Copper in a Bus Bar

No. 2 Yellow Pine for No. 1 in Woodwork for Home

Mica-Based for Asbestos-Based Insulation

Polyester Fabric for Cotton

Painted Plain Carbon Steel for Stainless Steel

Aluminum Building Wall Studs for Wooden

Graphite Golf Club Shafts for Steel/Hickory

One Process for Another

Friction Welding of Metal Parts for Butt Welding

Rolled Threads on Screws for Cut Ones

Castings for Forgings

Float Glass for Ground Plate Glass

Continuous Melt Extraction of Wire for Drawing

Clearly there is interaction between the

three alternatives; replacement of basic

material may well dictate process changes

throughout the system; process changes may

affect the design; design changes certainly

lead to new material requirements. But each

choice is a separate issue, with its own requirements for information and data. A system

providing information and data for substitution analyses must consider each alternative

and its needs,

One Function or Level of Function for Another

Bulk Distribution of Oil Products in Place of Unit Containers

Elimination of Chrome on Automobiles

Air-Cooled Engine as a Substitute for Radiators in WaterCooled Engines

B. DECISIONS AND DECISIONMAKERS

Having defined the kinds of substitution

that take place at various levels, from processing of materials to design of final products, it is

appropriate to ask: Who makes decisions

regarding substitution and why do they consider substitutes?

It is difficult to identify anyone in a free

economy who is not involved in the process of

making decisions regarding materials substitution, The consumer directly or indirectly dictates most of the choices.

In the chain of decisionmakers who respond

in different ways to their perceptions of consumers’ choices are two broad classes, Both are

potential users of information and data on

materials substitution. As shown in table A–3,

the first class is Materials Users.

Table A–3.—Potential Users of

Information on Substitution

Materials Users National Policymakers

R&D Personnel Government Administrators

Designers/Engineers Congress/Executive

Management/Entre- Branch

preneurs Public Interest Groups

Everyone in the chain—from raw material

producer on-can be considered a Materials

User. At the raw materials level, even producers are users of materials in a less refined

state, e.g., the alumina producers are users of

bauxite. The second class of user consists of

public officials and those who influence public

policy.

The shortages that developed in the period

1973-74 have tended to overemphasize the

need for substitution to overcome shortages,

Substitution is continuously taking place to increase the performance and reduce the cost of

goods and services,

Four considerations of national interest encourage the development and use of substitute

materials: l

1. Environmental and safety controls,

which have introduced a whole new set

of social specifications. creating a need to

deal with shortages resulting from

prohibited facilities, materials, and processes:

IMinera] Resources and the Environment, Appendix

to Section 1, Report of Panel on Materials Conservation

Through Technology, National Research Council,

PB-z39580, February 1975.

231
APPENDIX A

2.

3

4.

Government intervention in the industrial system to overcome large dislocations such as the combined shortage of

electric power and petroleum fuels;

Future prospects of dislocations in the

flow of materials from sources in

developing countries and unstabl e

sources; and

The need to reduce reliance on materials

of rising cost from foreign sources to

balance U.S. payments abroad and control

inflation at home,

These and several other examples of motivations for considering substitution are listed in

table A-4, They make it clear that substitution

is but a special case of materials selection.

Materials selection takes place with a particular set of criteria and when another set of criteria is imposed, another selection takes

place—the latter being called substitution.

C. THE PROCESS OF SUBSTITUTION ANALYSIS

DELTA charts2 have been prepared to show

more specifically the information requirements for both materials users and national

policy makers. In each chart, information and

data needs have been keyed to the various

steps in the decisionmaking process.

1. Materials Users

Figure A–1 shows the information requirements for substitution analysis by Materials

Users. This DELTA chart shows the logic of a

designer/user in one of the manufacturing industries. 3 Rather than explain Figure A–1 in

the abstract, the chart will be described by

using two current examples—with numbered

paragraphs referring to the numbered symbols

in the chart.

a. Rear Deck of an Automobile

(1) Because supplies of petroleum will be

limited and more costly, automobiles will have

to be more efficient in their energy usage. One

way to reduce the energy used in an

automobile is to reduce its weight, It is recognized that the rear deck of an automobile now

made of steel might be produced from a

substitute material to effect weight reduction,

(2) and (7) The rear deck designer in

cooperation with the automobile systems

zI)ELTA charts incorporate a logical network of Decisions, Events, Logic, Time sequence, and Activity. This

kind of flow chart shows the major steps in a decisionmaking process.

3A similar chart could be prepared to show the logic

of a user/producer in the process industries, for example,

a copper company. Such a company looks for another ore

body and alternative processes as its current properties

are being depleted. Or aluminum companies, in cooperation with the Bureau of Mines, investigate the feasibility

of using alunite and other high alumina clays in the production of alumina. Such a diagram would show essentially the logic of raw materials and process selection.

The data and information requirements would differ in

detail, but the principles used in laying out the decision

logic and information requirements would be the same.

232
233
APPENDIX A

designer specifies the design requirements for

all components, including a lighter weight rear

deck. They also specify other desirable characteristics or requirements for the new rear deck.

For example, the new material should be

formed by equipment in existing production

lines with a minimum of modification and the

cost should not exceed the cost of a conventional rear deck fabricated from steel,

(3) The rear deck designer next searches for

information that will lead him to identify candidate substitute materials, In this search, he

wants to specify design requirements and

economic constraints, From that input, he

would like an information system to identify

for him specific kinds and grades of material

that meet his requirements, If the component

designer specifies only a few of the more important technical performance requirements,

he may have a list of candidate materials including aluminum, magnesium, reinforced

plastics fiber composites—among others. The

components designer on the other hand may

specify a large number of technical and

economic requirements resulting in no candidate substitutes,

(4) Depending upon how strictly he applies

his performance requirements, the rear deck

designer either has a long list of substitutes, a

few, or none. In this case, we would expect

him to have a leading candidate substitute

mat erial—alu m in u m,

(5) The rear deck designer then prepares

alternative preliminary designs of a rear deck

using aluminum, Some of the problems he

faces are inherent in the chemical, mechanical, and physical properties of aluminum as

compared with steel, His major information

need is for design requirements including

properties of materials.

(7) The rear deck designer then examines

his alternative designs with respect to the interface requirements of his rear deck and the

other components of the automobile that interact with it. For example, if the weight of the

rear deck is substantially different when fabricated with aluminum as compared with steel,

this may change the suspension characteristics,

(8) He then decides whether or not interface

problems exist. In this case, they probably will

exist and he must reconcile them.

(12) The rear deck designer and the other

component designers get together to discuss

the designs of their several components attempting to identify ways in which slight

modifications will result in overall compatibility. The information required here is a

more detailed analysis of the design requirements as they impinge on the technical

performance of each of the components and

the whole automobile as a system,

(13) A decision has to be made. Have the interface problems been solved within permitted

variation ? If the answer is “yes”, the rear deck

designer goes on with his design within the

agreed-upon limits,

(14) If the answer is “no”, the problem must

be referred to the systems designer who performs trade-off studies to establish revised requirements for rear deck, suspension and

other components. He may ask the designer

working on the suspension system to modify

his design to adapt to the weight of an

aluminum rear deck,

(15) At this point, either a major redesign or

minor one is initiated. If a major design

modification is needed, the automotive

systems designer must prepare new preliminary designs for the entire automobile with

the performance requirements for each component re-established. On the other hand, if

the system modification is relatively minor,

the several component designers go back to

their drawing boards and work within the

newly established variances,

(5) through (8) After having reviewed the

new interface requirements, the rear deck

designer decides that his design is compatible

with the other components,

(9) The rear deck designer then analyzes all

of his alternative designs—all of which use

234
alum in urn —with respect to performance, cost,

production feasibility, short-term and longterm materials availability, and all other criteria that will ultimately guide a final decision.

The information requirements at this point in

the analysis are substantial. They include all

design requirements and economic considerations guiding the design, They include all information on producibility, labor skills, the

availability and use of existing facilities and

labor, and energy requirements. They also include forecasts of materials supply and competitive uses for those materials. Such information includes data on production capacities,

stockpile levels (where applicable), export-imports, the various forms in which the material

will be available, and the delivery time or lead

time required.

At this point, the designer will also need information on risks, He will need to assess the

legal liability and other risks that he, or his

company, might undertake if this design is accepted. Further information related to national

policy considerations is needed. Data on the

environmental, health, or energy aspects of

processing aluminum into a finished rear deck

would be applicable,

After all of this information is pulled

together and assessed, the designer recognizes

a potential limitation on the availability of

aluminum. The rear deck represents a substantial increase in the pounds of aluminum

per automobile. Forecasts of the availability of

aluminum for the automobile industry indicate only marginal availability, which could

force a price increase.

(10) When the designer asks, is there a

satisfactory “best” design with a substitute?,

he may have to answer “no”. The supply of

aluminum is not assured—in which case, the

search for a substitute starts again at Box No. 3.

If, on the other hand, an arrangement can be

made with an aluminum supplier to assure

supplies, the answer may be “yes”, In this

case, the rear deck designer proceeds with the

final selection of the best design and prepares

detailed drawings and specifications as indicated in Box No. 11.

APPENDIX A

b. Coating for an Appliance Part

(1) The need for a substitute is recognized.

Rule 66 has been established by the City of Los

Angeles and other cities forbidding the use of

certain solvents which, in dilute concentrations in air, form eye irritants by photosynthesis.

(2) The component designer specifies the

characteristics of a desired coating, its costs,

the quantity requirements, and other performance requirements.

(3) The component designer then searches

for information that will guide him in the

identification of candidate substitute coatings.

In this search, he specifies the performance

criteria that will be used. He would like to

identify coating systems that avoid use of solvents that have been banned. From his information on coating systems, he can identify

four alternatives:

(a)

(b)

(c)

(d)

Replace the banned solvents with a

combination of new solvents that work

with existing coating compositions;

Replace the solvent coating by a powder

coating;

Replace the solvent coating with a

water-dispersed coating system; or

Replace the solvent coating with a radiation-cured coating, wherein the liquid

portion becomes a part of the coating

film.

(4) It is obvious that there are several viable

substitutes available,

(5) The component designer seeks additional information on coating systems performance and costs. Also, he may prepare a number of alternative formulations. He may test

one or more of his alternatives in the laboratory to substantiate the data that he obtained

from his information system.

(6) The component designer then analyzes

in a preliminary way the alternative coating

systems, based on information available on

design requirements and economics.

235
APPENDIX A

(7) The component designer next examines

alternative coatings with respect to interface

requirements —in this case, incompatibility y

with adjacent materials.

(8) The question then has to be asked, do interface problems exist, and if the answer is

“no”, the component designer can analyze his

various coating systems with respect to

performance, cost, production feasibility,

short-run and long-term material availability.

In this analysis, he requires a substantial

amount of information. It includes design requirements, economic considerations, production considerations, materials sup -

ply/availability considerations, risk considerations and even national policy.

(10) He then asks the question, is there a

satisfactory “best” design with the substitute

coating system included? From the many

types of substitution formulations in each of

the four options, he undoubtedly can find a

satisfactory coating.

2. National Policymakers

Figure A–z presents a DELTA chart showing the information requirements for substitution analysis by National Policy makers. Inform a t ion req u ire ments for N a t ion a 1

Policy makers can best be explained by using

two current examples of substitution issues at

the national level, with numbered paragraphs

referring to the numbered symbols in figure

A-2.

a. Bauxite

(1) Bauxite is the principal source of

alumina from which aluminum metal is produced. In recent years, Jamaica, Surinam,

Guyana, and other bauxite-producing countries have met to discuss pricing and other actions. The purpose of these discussions has

been to increase revenues from bauxite extraction and sale. Some officials have taken

unilateral action to increase the effective price

of bauxite being shipped from their countries.

Others are pressuring

aluminum companies to

the multi-national

build new alumina

and aluminum facilities within their borders to

increase the “value added” by manufacture.

All of these actions point to less control by

the United States over future supplies and

prices of bauxite and other materials produced

from it. A need to assess the possibility of

substitutes for bauxite is recognized,

(2) The first step following the recognition

is to identify all of the end uses of bauxite and

develop historical data and projections on the

amounts of bauxite required in each end use,

About 90 percent of the bauxite consumed in

the United States is converted to alumina and

about 10 percent is converted directly into

abrasives, aluminum chemicals and refractories, Of the alumina produced, about 94 percent is converted directly to aluminum metal

and about 6 percent is used in making highpurity abrasives, aluminum chemicals, and

refractories.

The end uses for aluminum metal cover a

broad range of consumer and industrial

goods—autos and other transportation equipment, electrical equipment, construction—to

name just a few,

End-use patterns are the province of market

research staffs of companies at every level in

the materials systems. Valid data are difficult

to obtain. Forecasts vary, End-use patterns

shift from year to year, depending upon advantages and disadvantages of alternative

materials as perceived by users. It is necessary,

therefore, to obtain end-use data on all

materials used in competition with aluminum,

alumina, abrasives, aluminum chemicals, and

refractories.

At the raw material level, there is no

material in commercial competition with

bauxite. R&D is currently under way on

developing processes for recovering alumina

from alunite and other high alumina clays,

Capital and process-cost estimates for such

processes are now unreliable,

236
.237
APPENDIX A

There are, however, a host of materials currently used in competition with materials produced from bauxite—aluminum metal,

aluminum chemicals, abrasives, and refractories. For example, aluminum metal, in most

end uses, is in direct competition with one or

more of the following-copper, steel, stainless

steel, tin plate, magnesium, lead, wood,

plastics, rock wool, and fiberglass. The investigator needs to estimate the amounts of

competitive materials currently consumed in

each use. Little, if any, information and data

are available to make such estimates directly.

Some information and data are available—but

scattered in the minds and files of thousands

of people producing and using materials.

Furthermore, even if historical data at this

level were readily available, the changing

technology and changing economics render

routine forecasts of future end-use patterns to

be of little or no value. This is not to say that

useful estimates cannot be made.

(3) In order to estimate the additional

amounts of competitive materials that might

be used without performance or cost penalties,

it is necessary not only to know the amounts

now used, but also to have information and

data on the design requirements for each use,

the properties of competitive materials that

might satisfy these design requirements, and

the economic considerations that will help

shape design. This—in essence—requires

knowledge of the design choices made by each

of the designers in each of the end uses, where

competitive materials were used instead of

aluminum and where aluminum was used.

Again this information is scattered in the

minds and files of designers. Much of the information on design criteria and reasons for

choice are considered to be proprietary.

Knowledgeable people in a host of industries can make reasonable estimates of specific

conditions of competition between aluminum

and competitive materials in specific applications—for example, for storm windows, lawn

furniture , automobile engine blocks,

automobile body components, etc.

(4) The investigator next asks the question,

will state-of-the-art substitutes meet performance and cost requirements without penalty?

If the answer is “no”, other options must be

sought. This raises a key issue in national

policy determination. If substitution is viewed

in a simplistic way—one material for

another—there is no present commercial

substitute for bauxite. If a national emergency

were to occur, literally thousands of steps

would be taken to find substitutes for

aluminum metal, aluminum chemicals, bauxite in abrasives and bauxite in refractories,

The logic path following a “no” answer will be

discussed later.

(5) If the answer is “yes”, the investigator

will then estimate the amount of materials that

might be used which are already in competition with bauxite and materials produced from

bauxite. In the case of substitutes for

aluminum, the estimates will include additional quantities for copper, steel, stainless

steel, tin plate, magnesium, lead, wood,

plastics, rock wool, fiberglass, abrasives and

refractories, Information needed in order to

make

(a)

(b)

these estimates includes:

The design requirements for all products made from bauxite and its derivatives, end-use patterns of bauxite and all

competitive materials; and

The economic considerations surrounding all of these.

This kind of information is not available in

intimate detail; only broad estimates of the

amounts of substitute materials can be made.

Furthermore, there are competitive pressures

among companies which limit data

availability. No one company or industry has a

significant fraction of the data that would be

needed by an analyst not familiar with the

technology and the wide spectrum of industries involved. Even if valid historical data

were available, forecasts of future usage depend in part upon the acceptance of the

substitutes by industrial and home consumers.

238
(6) If additional quantities of state-of-the-art

substitutes can be used, the question must be

asked: are capacities sufficient to cover the

added usage? if the answer is “yes”, the

substitution analysis is complete and Box 9 indicates that supplies of substitute materials are

sufficient to meet the demand. If the answer is

‘‘no’, an additional investigation is needed,

(7) If capacities are not sufficient, it is possible to make additional investments in facilities

for producing the substitute materials, This

step involves detailed estimates of the investments required, the time needed and the commercial feasibility y of adding capacities of all of

the various state-of-the-art materials for

which there is insufficient capacity, This kind

of information is not readily available. Estimates, however, can be made, depending on

the likely location, availability and costs of

raw materials, transportation charges for raw

materials, availability and costs of energy, etc.

(8) The investigator then asks the question:

are the potential investments in dollars and

time acceptable, and are the various impacts

also acceptable for adding capacities of these

state-of-the-art materials? If the answer is

‘‘no’ new options must be sought and that

will be discussed in the next paragraph. If the

answer is “yes”, the supplies of substitute

materials can be made available within an acceptable time to meet the demand. The policy

analysis would be completed.

(10) If state-of-the-art substitutes are not

available, the impacts of building new capacity

are unacceptable and it is necessary to identify

other substitution possibilities, This requires

searching for materials options, components

options, and systems options for each end use,

Here again, information is needed on end-use

patterns, design requirements, economic considerations regarding each of the end uses, and

materials supply and availability. At the raw

material level, there is no state-of-the-art

substitute for bauxite, At the component level,

there are a wide variety of substitute materials

that approach the performance and cost requirements of the various end uses, but with

varying degrees of penalty.

APPENDIX A

(11) The detailed information on materials

options, component options, and systems options for each end use is made explicit in any

array so that the relationships among all alternatives/options can be assessed.

(12) It is necessary for the investigator now

to evaluate the performance and cost implications of all of the alternatives/options.

Although figure A-2 indicates that design requirements, economic considerations and

materials supply/availability considerations

are taken into account, it is exceedingly

difficult to get data at a sufficiently disaggregate level to make estimates of all of the options. Useful estimates however can be made.

(13) After the information has been

assembled and evaluated, the question must be

asked: are the available alternatives/options

acceptable? —if the answer is “no”, the investigator must return to Box 10 to identify

additional materials options, component options, systems options, or he must go on to Box

14, initiate research and development. If, on

the other hand, the answer is “yes”, the investigator asks the question: are the capacities

of the substitute materials sufficient to cover

the added usage?—and the remainder of the

analysis proceeds as indicated before.

b. Coal for Petroleum Products

(1) The unilateral action by OPEC

has increased the United States

balance of payments in energy by

members

negative

over $20

billion per year. A need for a substitute for

foreign petroleum has been recognized.

(2) The first step undertaken by the investigator is to identify end uses of petroleum

products and to estimate the amounts used in

each of the end uses. It is also necessary to

identify the competitive materials that are

used in the same end uses and the various

amounts used. The primary material used in

competition with foreign petroleum is

domestic petroleum. Further, petroleum from

all sources supplies virtually all of the energy

239
APPENDIX A

required for

tion devices

ing, process

automotive and other transportaIn other uses, such as space heatsteam and central power station

production of electric power, petroleum products are in competition with coal, natural gas,

and uranium. Petroleum and natural gas provide feedstock for making plastics and synthetic fibers.

(3) Based on the end-use patterns and the

design requirements for energy in each of the

end uses, and the economic considerations, it

is necessary to evaluate the performance and

cost implications of using domestic coal,

uranium, and natural gas. It is here that the

current policy considerations of energy bog

down. There is no agreement on the performance and cost implications of using alternative

energy systems for the next 20 to 30 years.

Businessmen, however, investing stockholders’ money must make decisions today

that will be considered prudent throughout the

lifetime of the investment.

The options for substituting coal or other

materials for feedstocks must be considered in

R&D.

(4) At this point, the investigator needs to

ask the question: will the state-of-the-art

substitute coal meet the performance and cost

requirements without penalty? Depending

upon the projection of cost and performance,

the answer is “yes”, there is plenty of coal and

the performance and cost requirements involve inconsequential penalties, Or the

answer is “no”, and we must rely on solar and

other forms of energy.

(5) If the answer is “yes”, it is necessary to

estimate the amount of substitute materials

that will meet the added usage requirements.

The capacity in the United States for mining

coal is limited. The amount of coal being

mined now is not much more than was mined

20 years ago. The reserves of uranium are

limited.

(6) The investigator must then ask the question: are capacities sufficent to cover the added usage?—and the answer is obviously “no.”

(7) The investigator needs then to estimate

the investments in time and commercial

feasibility of adding coal and uranium mining

capacity sufficient to meet energy demands.

These investments include not only design

and development of mines, but also design and

construction of facilities to burn coal and handle it in an environmentally acceptable way.

They also of course include design and

development of nuclear facilities that are environmentally acceptable.

(8) The investigator now asks the question:

are the investments of time and impacts acceptable? Most would agree that coal and

uranium cannot, in the near term, replace all

of the energy needs now satisfied by imported

oil.

(10) The next step is to identify materials

options and other systems options for each of

the end uses of petroleum. This involves options relative to increasing the supplies of

natural gas from domestic sources. It includes

solar, geothermal, breeder and fusion energy,

Some of these options can be installed today at

a rather substantial penalty. All options,

however, have to be evaluated in light of their

effectiveness, cost, and penalties over a 20- or

25-year period.

(11) The relationships among all of the options from raw materials through alternative

systems are made explicit.

(12) The investigator next evaluates the performance and cost implications of all of the

alternatives/options.

(13) Based on the above evaluation, the investigator asks the question: are any of the

alternatives/options acceptable ?—if the

answer is “no”, there is the need for research

and development. And, if the answer is “yes”,

the next step is to examine the question: are

capacities of those substitute materials sufficient to cover the added usage ?—and the

analysis goes on,

240
APPENDIX A

D. INFORMATION REQUIREMENTS FOR SUBSTITUTION ANALYSIS

The type, amount, and specificity of information required by the two identified potential user groups—the Materials Users and the

National Policy makers—for making substitution analyses varies over a wide range.

Complexity of the substitution selection

process occurs at all levels. For example, a

designer seeking a substitute material may

consciously recognize that only one or two factors are important in his selection process. In

choosing a substitute for stainless steel tubing

in a chemical processing plant, he may consider only high-temperature corrosion as being

the important requirement for the material.

But, obviously, he must also take into account

such other requirements as the cost of the

material, its availability, whether it can be

welded, and so on. Although many of these requirements appear to be quite obvious, they

would require precise definition for any information system to assist the designer in his

selection. Likewise, a National Policy maker

must consider a multitude of technical,

economic and political factors in making decisions involving materials substitution, Some of

these also might be obvious, such as assurance

that an unexpected war would not be initiated

because of a substitution decision (it has been

suggested that the lack of substitutes for

chromium may have played a key role in causing Germany to enter WW 11), However, other

factors such as the extent of disruption to the

~As used here data are specifi[; facts, usua]]y n umeri -

cal, quantitative, measurable. Examples are the properties of materials, the populations of cities, the dimensions of land masses. Being primarily numerical, data are

fairly readily stored and manipulated in automated

systems, Information is the broader class of knowledge.

encompassing judgments, experience, art, behavioral

(considerations, etc. Examples include directions on how

to do something, expressions of policy. social considerations, esthetics, alternatives. Bw;ause it is expressed in

words, the broader aspects of ‘ in format ion’ are more

difficult to mechanize. Data are a category of information. These cons idcrat ions are significant when one (contemplates the implementation of an automated information system,

economy or to a particular class of workers

that might occur by employing the substitute

are perhaps more difficult to ascertain. Table

A–5 offers a listing of information/data identified in this study as required by the two user

groups in making substitution decisions. These

have been categorized into seven broad

classes, coinciding with those shown in figures

A-1 and A-2.

It is possible to compare both user groups

with their particular information needs, and to

consider whether such categories of information (and data) can appropriately be included

in responsive materials information systems.

In many instances, it is recognized that such

information must come from outside the

“system”, that is, be provided as “a priori” to

an inquiry to the “system”. In table A-5, the

notation “I” has been used for information

items required, and possible to be included in

the system; “O” indicates those items essential

to decisions, but probably obtained from outside sources; and “N” designates those items

generally not required by the particular user

group.

Some of the information items in table A-5

are self-explanatory; however, a few comments are in order to explain some that aren’t

quite so obvious.

Under the category “Design Requirements”,

the first listed item—” Customer Acceptance”—is identified as the starting consideration by Materials Users in essentially all

substitution analyses. If a judgment is made

that the market is not likely to accept the

substitute, all further consideration generally

is terminated. Although this item is of high importance for the Materials-User group, such

information either is so specific to the individual substitution or is so judgmental. the

information most likely would not be found

within the formalized information system.

And as a result it would have to be obtained

241
APPENDIX A

Table A-5.—Information Requirements

for Substitution Analysis

National

Materials PolicyUsers makers

A. DESIGN REQUIREMENTS

Customer Acceptance

Esthetics

Personal Bias

Market Acceptability

Performance Criteria

Materials Performance

Mechanical Properties

Chemical Properties

Physical Properties

Fabricability

Machinability

Toxicity

Ease of Joining

Corrosion, Oxidation, and Fire Resistance

Compliance with Specifications and Codes

Protection Against Misuse

Vandalism Protection

Reuse/Recyclability /Disposal

Compliance with Specifications and Codes

Reliability and Maintainability

B. ECONOMIC CONSIDERATIONS

Material Cost

Cost/Price Stability

Transportation Coats

Marketing Costs (to use substitute)

Production Costs

Investment Required to Incorporate

Life-Cycle Costs

Tariffs and Taxes

C. PRODUCTION CONSIDERATIONS

Availability of Fabrication Facilities

Availability of Labor (specific skills)

Production Rates Achievable

Time Required to Incorporate Substitute

Use of Existing Facilities and Labor

Energy Requirements

Inspectability

o

0

0

0

I

I

I

!

I

I

I

0

o

l - o

I -o

l - o

I

I

1--o

0

0

0

l-o

l-o

l-o

0

0

1

l-o

0

D. MATERIALS SUPPLY/AVAILABILITY CONSIDERATIONS

Supply - Present and Future, Current and

Potential

Resources/Reserves

Stockpile Level

Imports/Exports

Defense Allocation

Inventories

Supply Assurance (including trade

agreement)

Identity and Location of Supplies

Forms of Materials Available

Delivery Time (Lead Time)

E. END-USE PATTERNS - Historical and Projected

F. RISK CONSIDERATIONS

Legal Liability

Technical/Professional

Business

Political

G. NATIONAL POLICY CONSIDERATIONS

Regulatory Agency Compliance (Federal,

State, local)

Environmental

Health/Safety

Energy

Economic Impacts of Using Substitutes

Political Impacts of Using Substitutes

l-o

t-o

l-o

l-o

l-o

0

I

I

l-o

l-o

0

0

0

l-o

l-o

l-o

l-- O-N

O-N

N

N

N

o

N

N

N

N

N

N

N

N

N

N

N

l-o

I -ol-o

I

I

10

N

l-o

l-o

0

I

I

I

I

l - o

l - o

I

N

I

1

I

I

I

l - o

I

I

I

I

N

N

0

I

;

I

o

I = required and possible in system (hard

economic).

O = required but obtained outside system

N = generally not required by user group.

data, either technical or

from outside the system. Further, it is interesting to note that, although this item is important to Materials User decisions, it is considered to be of little significance in substitution decisions made by National Policy makers.

It should be noted that many differences, such

as those mentioned above were found in the

information required for the two user groups.

The listed items regarding “Materials Performance” obviously are required by the

Materials Users, but evidence indicates they

are not required by the National Policy makers.

And, although these items are required by the

Materials Users, the degree of specificity of

each item that is required will vary significantly from one substitution analysis to

another. Also, in some analyses the requirements are easily stated (including the range

over which the performance can vary and still

maintain acceptability). whereas in others the

requirements may not even be known with

sufficient specificity to allow the substitution

decisionmaker to ask the information system

the necessary questions. As an example, a recent study involved the assessment of

plutonium as a power source for an implantable heart pacemaker, the motivation being significantly increased life and reliability. In

addition to consideration of some of the performance requirements listed, it became apparent in the assessment that the plutonium

source required unique packaging that included its being fire resistant and bullet proof.

Although these were criteria which were not

considered in the original analysis, they

became of critical importance when the consequences of the plutonium source being in a fire

(during cremation, if not removed first) or accidentally or intentionally being struck by a

bullet, were recognized.

The item of “Compliance with Specifications and Codes” in the listing unde r

“Materials Performance” refers to compliance

of the material (e.g., ASTM specifications)—

these same words are listed later under

“Design Requirements” where they refer to

compliance of the system which is made from

the materials, Although this information is

242
APPENDIX A

considered required by the Materials User, it

has been judged as not being required by the

National Policy makers. It is believed that

specifications and codes would not be deterrents to policy decisions, for, if they were, the

Policy maker would simply see that the

specifications and codes were changed.

The item “Protection Against Misuse” is

best explained by example. Polyethylene bags

proved to be a highly successful substitute for

paper ones (e.g., for dry cleaning); however,

when they began being used in baby beds and

several deaths from suffocation resulted, a

large campaign was conducted to educate consumers not to misuse the product.

“Economic Considerations” are, of course,

required by both user groups, but again. the

level of detail required would vary for the two

groups and for each analysis. The item of

“Marketing Costs” refers to the cost of convincing consumers the substitute will satisfy

their needs. Consider, for example, the

difficulty the automobile manufacturers have

had in convincing the public that fiberglass

automobiles are as safe as metal ones. National

Policy makers most likely would not be concerned with market factors of this type.

The item identified as ‘i

Investment Required to Incorporate” relates to how much

capital would be required to develop the

needed technology for the substitute and then

to incorporate it into the economy. An example is the previously mentioned proposed

substitution of alunite for bauxite as an ore for

aluminum, Although the essential technology

exists for this substitution, large investments

would be required to make it a reality and

knowledge of the magnitude of these commitments would be required by the various decisionmakers in their assessment of whether or

not to proceed with this substitution.

Certain items relating to “Production Considerations” are required by both user groups.

If the facilities required by the substitute are

not available within a producing facility, the

substitution may not be acceptable to the individual company, On the national policy

level, the availability of facilities within the

country may determine the acceptability y of the

substitute. The same considerations also apply

to the availability of labor with specific skills,

For example, widespread substitution of coal

by gas and oil during the recent past may not

have occurred if the magnitude of the plight of

the coal miners could have been predicted. On

a Materials-User level, it is unlikely that a

company would change from producing a cast

part to using a welded one, if they already had

the skilled labor for making castings and could

foresee a problem in acquiring the needed

welders.

Recent difficulties in obtaining energy have

vividly pointed out the necessity of including

this factor in any substitute selection process.

This not only relates to the amount of energy

required but also to the type. The gas shortages in various parts of the country have

caused changes to other forms of energy, and

this in turn has caused numerous substitutions

to be made in products or processes.

A recent experience can be used as an example of the necessity for “Inspectability“. A

change in material, coupled with a change in

heat treatment, was recently recommended for

use in a high-volume automotive part. The

part, because of its function, required rather

complete inspection for internal defectswhich could only be accomplished reliably by

ultrasonic techniques. Although the recommended substitution met essentially all other

requirements, because of its structure ,

ultrasonic waves would not pass through it.

Therefore, the substitute was judged unacceptable.

Regarding “Materials Supply/Availability”,

most of the information identified as being required for substitution analyses would most

likely be included in a national materials

system. An exception might be “Suppl y

Assurance”, particularly at the Materials User

level, This is because many of the factors

which influence the assurance of supplies are

interpersonal relationships that might exist between the supplier and the consumer which,

although very significant, certainly could not

243
APPENDIX A

be included in a new integrated materials information system.

It has been judged that a system must include “Identification and Location of Supplies”. This suggests an index of all materials

producers and supplies. Also included should

be their supply and production capacities. The

“Forms of Materials Available” should,

ideally, be keyed to the supplier in the system.

“Delivery Time” data presently is tabulated by

various groups within industry (e.g., Aerospace Industries Association) and Government

(NAVSEA) and would constitute a key factor

in the decisionmaking process regarding

substitute selection.

As indicated in the DELTA charts, the starting point for considering substitution by national policy makers would be a determination

of “End-Use Patterns”, current, historical, and

future. Ideally, this would require information

on all the products that are made from each

material and the amounts of the materials consumed by each use. Such information often is

proprietary and of limited availability.

Substitution decisionmaking is affected

strongly by the amount of “Risk” that the

various decision makers involved in the selection process are willing, or are forced, to accept. Essentially all substitution decisions

have some degree of risk associated with

them, but the intensity of the risk and the factors causing the risk vary significantly. Risk

can be tied to the “Legal Liability” that is

associated with the end use of the item, i.e.,

the consequences that can arise from failure,

use or misuse of the item, For example, selection of a material for a critical airplane component would have high risk, whereas the choice

of a paint for an office desk would have low

risk.

Risk also may be described as being “Technical or Professional”, i.e, how the quality of

the substitution selection decision reflects on

the decisionmaker’s technical and/or professional reputation. If loss of one’s job is the

“reward” for a wrong decision, that risk is

high! And, this might occur to both the person

selecting the desk paint and the one selecting

the material for the critical aircraft part.

Further classifications of risk are “Business”

risk, which is associated with the effect of the

substitution decision on profitability (e.g., the

amount of money affected by how the

substitution decision turns out) and “Political”

risk, which is associated with the potential

political ramifications of the decisions (e.g.,

how seriously will a substitution decision

affect our relationship with another country—

will it lead to war?).

Considerations of “National Policy”, such as

compliance of the substitute with regulatory

agencies’ policies, have become increasingly

more important in recent times; and these

agencies exist on all levels—Federal, State and

local. For example, a technically acceptable

substitute for mica for certain high-temperature insulating applications might be

asbestos, but the environmental problems

associated with the use of asbestos probably

would cause it to be ruled out as a possible

substitute material.

Although the National Policy maker will be

concerned with the effects of the substitution

on the economy, a Materials User’s attention

to the effect on the national economy perhaps

will vary from a similar concern to essentially

none at all, depending on the size of his company, the amount of material involved in the

substitution, and on his national responsibility. This also holds true for considerations

of the “Political Impacts” of the substitution.

Although this aspect might be of little concern

to the Materials User, the specific choice of a

substitute material could have a severe political impact. Consider, for example, the decision

to find substitutes for Middle-East oil-e. g.,

the development of self-sufficiency and the

encouragement to reduce consumption (a

defined form of substitution) and the effect

such a decision would have on OPEC countries.

Tables A-6 and A–7 restructure the listing

of information requirements from table A–5,

identifying separately the information needs

of the two user groups; these are categories of

244
APPENDIX A

information/data that can be included in an However, the primary intent of the list is to

improved materials information system. These provide an identification of the significant

listings are not intended to be exhaustive and items required by materials users.

certain individual items could be disputed.

A. DESIGN REQUIREMENTS

Customer Acceptance

Esthetics

Personal Bias

Market Acceptability

Performance Criteria

Materials Performance

Mechanical Properties

Chemical Properties

Physical Properties

Fabricability

Vandalism Protection

Reuse/Recyclability/Disposal

Compliance with Specifications and Codes

Reliance and Maintainability

B. ECONOMIC CONSIDERATIONS

Material Cost

Cost/Price Stability

Transportation Cost

Marketing Costs (to use substitute)

Production Costs”

Investment Required to Incorporate

Life-Cycle Costs

Tariffs and Taxes

C. PRODUCTION CONSIDERATIONS

Availability of Fabrication Facilities

Availability of Labor (specific skills)

Production Rates Achievable

Inventories

Supply Assurance (Including trade agreements)

Identify and Location of Supplies -

orms of Materials Available

Delivery Time (Lead Time)

E. END-USE PATTERN-Historical and Projected

F. RISK CONSIDERATIONS

Legal Liability

- Technical/Professional

Business

Political

G. NATIONAL POLICY CONSIDERATIONS

Time Required to Incorporate Substitute

Use of Existing Facilities and Labor

Energy Requirements

Inspectability

245
APPENDIX A

Table A–7.—lnformation Requirements for Substitution Analysis:

Those Specifically Required by National Policymakers

are Underlined

A. DESIGN REQUIREMENTS

Customer Acceptance

Esthetics

Personal Bias

Market Acceptability

Performance Criteria

Materials Performance

Mechanical Properties

Chemical Properties

Physical Properties

Fabricability

Machinability

Toxicity

Ease of Joining

Corrosion, Oxidation, and Fire Resistance

Compliance with Specifications and Code

Protection Against Misuse

Vandalism Protection

Reuse/Recyclability/Disposal

Compliance with Specifications and Codes

Reliability and Maintainability

B. ECONOMIC CONSIDERATIONS

use substitute)

Product ion Costs

Investment Required to Incorporate

Life-Cycle Costs

Tariffs and Taxes

C. PRODUCTION CONSIDERATIONS

D. MATERIALS SUPPLY/AVAILABILITY CONSIDERATIONS

Inventories

Supply Assurance (Including Trade Agreement)

Identify and Location of Supplies

Forms of Materials Available

Delivery Time (Lead Time)

E. END-USE PATTERN&Historical and Projected

Supply-Present and Future, Current and Potential

Resources/Reserves

Stockpile Level

Imports/Exports

Defense Allocation

Inventories

Supply Assurance (Including Trade Agreement)

Identity and Location of Supplies

Forms of Materials Available

Delivery Time (Lead Time)

F. RISK CONSIDERATIONS

Regulatory Agency Compliance (Federal, State, Local)

Environmental

Health/Safety

Energy

Economic Impacts of Using Substitutes

Availability of Fabrication Facilities

Availability of Labor (specific skills)

Production Rates Achievable

Time Required to Incorporate Substitute

Use of Existing Facilities and Labor

Energy Requirements

Close examination of these tables establishes the most significant findings of this

study, namely that the scope of substitution

analysis is so broad that it calls on information

covering virtually every aspect of the materials cycle. In effect, the information requirements for substitution studies are no different

than they are for materials selection or, more

generally, for overall materials policy analysis.

The implications of this are several. First,

substitution analysis is hindered by the same

deficiencies in the existing materials informa246

tion system that impede policy analysis. The

deficiencies with respect to policy makers’ requirements (as developed above) appear to be

worse than for materials users, but both are

severe. Second, modifications to the existing

system that are designed to improve its support for policy analysis will also make it more

capable for substitution studies. In so far as

this brief study can evaluate the additional

costs and time needed to include the capability

for substitution analysis in a generalized new

integrated materials information system

would be negligible.
Appendix B

ACRONYMS

AFM

ARPA

BEA

BEAFPM

BEAIO

BEAQM

BESOM

BLM

BOC

BOM

BOR

CACM

CAIDM

CDB

CIAS

CMIDM

CPCM

CPPM

CRIB

CRS

DB/DC

DDC

DEMOS

DESM

DIBA

Aluminum Forecasting Model

(GSA)

Advanced Research Projects

Agency (DOD)

Bureau of Economic Analysis

(DOC)

Bureau of Economic Analysis

Fiscal Policy Model

Bureau of Economic Analysis,

Input/Output Model

Bureau of Economic Analysis

Quarterly Model

Brook haven Energy System

Optimization Model

Bureau of Land Management

Bureau of Census

Bureau of Mines

Burefau of Reclamation

Copper-Aluminum Competition Model

Copper-Alum inure Industrial

Dynamic Model

Commodity Data Base (BOM)

Contingentcy Impact Analysis

System (GSA)

Copper Market Industrial

Dynamics Model

Commodity Production Cycles

Model

Cost-price pressure Mode l

(DOC)

Computerized Resource Information Bank (USGS)

Congressional Research Service

Data Base/Data Communications

Denfense Documentatio n

Center (DOD)

Demographic Economi c

Modeling System

Dynamic Energy Syste m

Model

Domestic and International

DOA

DOC

DOD

DOD/IAC

DOI

DOT

DNRUM

EEPPM

EETM

EFRM

EFS

EMPIS

EM(JS

EPA

EQM

ERDA

ERS

FAS

FAS

FEA

FEILS

FMS

FPC

FREPAS

FS

Business Administration

(DOC)

Department of Agriculture

Department of Commerce

Department of Defense

Department of Defensfe Informat ion Analysis Center

Department of the Interior

Department of Transportation

Dynamic Natura1 Resource

[Utilization Model

Energy Employment Pollution

Policy Model

Economic - E n v i r o n m e n t a 1

Tradeoff Model

E n erg y F a c i 1 i t i es a n d

Resources Model

Economic Forecasting Service

Engineering Materia1s and

P r o c ess es I n f o r m a t i o n

System (GE)

Energy Model for the: United

Stat es

Environ men t al Protection

Agency

Energy Quality Model (ERDA)

Energy Research and Development Administration

Economic Research Service

(USDA)

Foreign Agricultural Service

( USDA)

Fuels Availability System

(BOM)

Federal Energy Administration

Federal Energy In format ion

Locator System (FEA)

Fed era t i o n o f M a t e r i a 1s

Societies

Federal Power Commission

Forest Range Environmental

P r o d u c t i o n A n a 1 y t i c a 1

System (USDA)

Forest Service

247
APPENDIX B

GAO

GIOM

GNP

GSA

GWU

IIASA

INFONET

INFORM

INFORUM

1/0

LANDSAT

LP

MANERGY

MAS

MCIC

MEM

MILS

MITI

MRIO

MRS

NAE

NAS

NASA

NBS

NCDB

NEDS

NEIC

248

U.S. General Accountin g

Office

Generalized Input/Outpu t

Model

Gross National Product

General Services Administration

The George Washingto n

University

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

GSA Teleprocessing Network

In formation for Forest

Management (USFS)

Interindustry Forecastin g

Model-University of Maryland

Input/Output

Earth Resources Technology

Satellite (formerly ERTS)

Linear Programming

Energy Management Model for

the United States

Minerals Availability System

(BOM)

Metals and Ceramics Information Center

Metal Endowment Model

Minerals Industry Location

System (BOM)

Ministry of International Trade

and Industry (Japan)

Multi-Regional Input/Output

Model (DOT)

Materials Referral Service

(concept)

National Academy o f

Engineering

National Academy of Sciences

National Aeronautics and

Space Administration

National Bureau of Standards

National Coal Data Bas e

(USGS)

National Environmental Data

System (EPA)

National Energy Information

Center (FEA)

NIRAP

NIST

NMAB

NRC

NSEM

NSF

NSRDS

NTIS

OBRA

OECD

OEDB

OEP

OGDB

OMPD

ORCHIS

OTA

PIES

PRS

QMCWEM

RANN

READY

RFFM

RIS

ROPE

National Interregiona l

Agricultural Projectio n

System (USDA)

National Information System

of Scientific and Technical

Information (Japan)

National Materials Advisory

Board (NAS)

National Referral Center (Library of Congress)

National Socio-Economi c

Model

National Science Foundation

National Standards Reference

Data System (NBS)

National Technical Information Service (DOC)

Office of Business Research

Analysis (Commerce)

Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development

Official Estimates Data Base

(SRS-USDA)

Office of Emergency Preparedness

Oil and Gas Data Base (USGS)

Office of Minerals Policy

Development (DOI)

Oak Ridge Hierarchal Information System (ERDA)

Office of Technology Assessment

Project Independence Evaluation System (ERDA)

Petroleum Reporting System

(FEA)

Queen Mary College World

Energy Model

Research Applied to National

Needs

Attack Simulation and Damage

Assessment Model (GSA)

Resources for the Futur e

Model (EPA)

Regulatory Informatio n

System (FPC)

Runout Production Evaluation

Model (DOC)
SAM Shortage Allocation Model

(DOC)

SEAS Strategi c Environmenta 1

Assessment System (EPA)

SIC Standard Industrial Code

SIMIS Stockpile Inventory Management Information System

(GSA)

SRS Statistical Reporting Service

(USDA)

SSIE Smithsonian Scientific Information Exchange

TPECM

TVA

UN

USDA

USGS

WAIF

WIM

WORLD3

WRIO

APPENDIX B

Tax Policy and Energy Conservation Model (EPA)

Tennessee Valley Authority

United Nations

U.S. Department of Agriculture

U.S. Geological Survey

Wharton Annual and Industry

Forecasting Model

World Industry Model

Limits to Growth Model

World Regional Input/Output

Model