Figure 1.

Distribution of the Population by Age

(1995 to 2050: middle-series projections)

(Percent)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Current Population Reports, Series P25-1130.

18 to 44 years old

Under 18 years old

45 to 64 years old

65 to 84 years old

85 years old and over

Demographic State of

the Nation: 1997

U.S. Department of Commerce

Economics and Statistics Administration

BUREAU OF THE CENSUS

Current Population Reports 

Special Studies

Series P23-193

March 1997

This is an overview of major demographic findings reported by the Census

Bureau since January 1996. If you are

interested in additional information on the

topics in this report, call one of our subject specialists listed on page 4.

The United States population is

projected to reach 394 million

in 2050.

The United States population would

increase by 50 percent, from 263 million

in 1995 to 394 million in 2050, under the

Census Bureau’s middle-series population

projections. The population would grow

to 275 million in 2000, and 347 million in

2030. The average annual growth rate,

however, would decrease from 1.05 percent for the 1990-1995 period to 0.63 percent for the 2040-2050 period.

In 1995, there were 34 million people

ages 65 and over representing 13 percent

of the population. The middle-series 

projection for 2050 indicates that there

will be 79 million people ages 65 and

over, representing 20 percent of the population (figure 1). The population ages 85

and over is growing especially fast. It is

projected to more than double from nearly

4 million (1.4 percent of the population)

in 1995 to over 8 million (2.4 percent) in

2030, then to more than double again in

size from 2030 to 2050 to 18 million 

(4.6 percent).

Only 7 of 10 children live with

2 parents.

 The proportion of children under 

18 years living with two parents1 declined

from 85 percent in 1970 to 69 percent in

1995. The proportion living with one parent grew from 12 percent to 27 percent.

Rising divorce rates and the delaying of

first marriages among adults are two of

the major factors contributing to the

1 These parents may be the child’s biological,

step, or adoptive parents.

growing proportion of children in oneparent living arrangements. 

A child in a single-parent living arrangement in 1995 was nearly as likely to

be living with a parent who had never

been married (35 percent) as with a parent

who was divorced (38 percent). Another

23 percent of these children lived with a

parent who was separated or living apart

from his or her spouse for some other reason, and 4 percent of them lived with a

widowed parent.

White children are less likely to be living with one parent than are Black children, or children of Hispanic origin.2 The

proportions living with one parent in 1995

were 21 percent for White children, 56 

percent for Black children, and 33 percent

for Hispanic children.

2 Persons of Hispanic origin may be of any race.

These data do not include persons living in

Puerto Rico.

Preschoolers’ child care arrangements have varied over the past 

few years.

The proportion of preschoolers 

who were cared for in organized child

care facilities3 declined from 26 percent in

1988 to 23 percent in 1991. However,

this proportion jumped to 30 percent

for 1993.

Care by fathers, while stable at

15 percent in 1977 and 1988, increased

to 20 percent by 1991. However, this

percentage dropped back down to

16 percent for 1993.

 Family day care4 had also

been a consistent source of child care

arrangements, providing 23 percent of all

arrangements for preschoolers in 1977 and

1988. However, this proportion fell to 18

3 An organized child care facility is a day care

center, a nursery school, or a preschool.

4 Family day care is provided by a nonrelative

who cares for one or more unrelated children

in the caregiver’s home.
Figure 2.

Educational Attainment by Race and

Hispanic Origin: March 1995

(Percent in age group 25 years old and over) Hispanic origin

(of any race)

83.0%

73.8%

53.4%

49.0%

37.5%

27.1%

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Current Population Reports, Series P20-489.

White

Black

24.0%

13.2%

9.3%

High school

degree or more

Some college

or more

Bachelor’s

degree or more

2 Demographic State of the Nation: 1997

percent in 1991 and remained at this historically low level in 1993.

From 1988 to 1991, the decline in

the use of organized child care facilities

and family day care providers, and the increase in care by fathers, may have been a

rational response to the economic recession which occurred during the same time

period. A higher proportion of fathers

who were unemployed or working at parttime jobs meant that more of them were

available to serve as child care providers.

Moreover, parents may have wanted to cut

down on child care costs by switching to

parental supervision whenever possible.

Educational attainment levels

continue to rise.

In March 1995, 82 percent of all adults

ages 25 and over had completed at least

high school and 23 percent had earned a

bachelor’s degree or more. Both figures

are the highest ever recorded in the United

States. The rise in educational attainment

for the general adult population is driven

principally by the replacement of older,

less–educated people by younger people

who have completed substantially more

education. For example, in 1995, 87 percent of persons 25 to 34 years old had

completed high school, compared with

57 percent of persons ages 75 and over.

Overall, post-secondary attainment

levels are higher for men than for women.

While there was no statistical difference

in 1995 between men and women ages

25 and over in terms of high school

completion (both 82 percent), 46 percent

of women and 50 percent of men had

completed some college or more.

Twenty-six percent of men had obtained a

bachelor’s degree, compared with only 20

percent of women.

There are also sizable differences in

high school completion rates among

Whites, Blacks, and persons of Hispanic

origin ages 25 and over (figure 2). 

Among Whites, 83 percent have at least a

high school degree, compared with 74

percent for Blacks, and 53 percent for persons of Hispanic origin.

However, the gap between the educational attainment of the White and Black

populations ages 25 to 29 has narrowed.

While the proportion of persons with at

least a high school degree remained relatively unchanged for the younger White

population (87 percent) during the last

decade, the proportion of Blacks in the

same age category with a high school

degree increased from 81 percent in 1985

to 87 percent in 1995.5

Nearly 1 in 11 Americans are

foreign born.6

 The estimated 23 million foreign-born

persons in 1995 represented 8.8 percent

of the U.S. population (nearly 1 in 11).

While this is substantially larger than the

4.8 percent foreign born in 1970, a

much greater proportion of the U.S.

population was foreign born during the

early part of this century. The percent

foreign born declined from a high of

14.7 percent in 1910 to a low of 4.8

in 1970, and then increased steadily

(although there was no significant

change from 1994 to 1995). 

Among the foreign born in 1995, 

68.0 percent were White, 7.2 percent were

Black, and 18.4 percent were Asian and

Pacific Islander. Nearly half (46.4 percent) of all foreign-born persons were of

Hispanic origin.

More than one-quarter (6.7 million) of

the total foreign-born population in 1995

were born in Mexico. The Philippines

was the second largest country of origin,

with 1 million persons born there. Over

half a million foreign-born persons came

from each of the following countries:

Canada, China, Cuba, the Dominican

5 There was no statistically significant difference

in high school completion rates between White

and Black persons ages 25 to 29 in 1995.

6 Natives are persons born in the United States,

Puerto Rico, or an insular area of the United

States such as Guam or the U.S. Virgin Islands,

and persons who were born in a foreign country

but who had at least one parent who was a U.S.

citizen. All other persons are foreign born.

Republic, El Salvador, Jamaica, Korea,

Germany, Great Britain, and Poland.

California had the largest foreign-born

population in 1995, over 7.7 million persons, or one-quarter of all California residents. New York ranked second in the

number of foreign born with 3.0 million.

Other States with large numbers of foreign

born include Texas (2.1 million), Florida

(2.0 million), New Jersey (1.1 million),

and Illinois (1.0 million).7

For the first time in 6 years,

households8 in the United States

experienced an overall increase in

real median income.

From 1994 to 1995, real median

household income9 increased by 2.7 percent, from $33,178 to $34,076. Even

though income remains below its 1989

prerecessionary peak of $35,421 (in 1995

dollars), the gap is narrowing. In 1994,

real median household income was 6.3

percent below the 1989 level; in 1995, it

was 3.8 percent below the 1989 level.

Moreover, selected groups have returned

to their 1989 median income levels.

Households in the Midwest, Black households, family households maintained by

a woman with no husband present, and

7 The differences in number of foreign born between

Texas and Florida and between New Jersey and

Illinois are not significant.

8 A household is a group of people who

occupy a housing unit.

9 All changes in real income and real earnings refer

to comparisons after adjusting for inflation. The

income data in this section are based on money

income from regularly received sources before

taxes and exclude capital gains and the value of

noncash benefits, such as employment-based

health insurance or food stamps.
0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

1959 1962 1965 1968 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995

Figure 3.

Poverty: 1959–95

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Current Population Reports, Series P60-194.

Number in poverty

(millions)

Poverty rate

(percent)

32.4

13.1%

45

40

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

36.4

13.8%

Recessionary periods.

Figure 4.

Type of Health Insurance Coverage Americans Had in 1995 All persons

Poor persons

22.3%

70.3%

14.6%

61.1%

11.6%

13.1%

46.4%

12.1%

Any

private plan

Employmentbased

Medicare

Medicaid

Military health

care*

No insurance

3.5%

2.1%

15.4%

30.2%

*Military health care includes CHAMPUS (Comprehensive Health and Medical Plan for

Uniformed Services), CHAMPVA (Civilian Health and Medical Program of the Department of

Veteran’s Affairs), and Veteran’s and military health care.

Note: The percentages by type of coverage are not mutually exclusive; in others words, persons

can be covered by more than one type of health insurance during the year.

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Current Population Reports, Series P60-195.

Private insurance

Government insurance

No insurance

Bureau of the Census 3

households maintained by persons 55 to

64 years old all had incomes in 1995

comparable to their 1989 incomes.

Historically, the long-term trend

among households has been toward 

increasing income inequality. However,

from 1994 to 1995, the amount of inequality in the distribution of income 

remained unchanged. In fact, the share 

of aggregate income for the lowest

quintile10 increased (by 0.1 percentage

points), while the other four quintiles

showed no significant change.

Although the percentages of both 

men and women who worked year round,

full time increased from 1994 to 1995,

neither gender experienced an increase in

real earnings. In fact, the real median

earnings of women working year round,

full time declined from $22,834 in 1994

 to $22,497 in 1995—a 1.5 percent drop

after adjusting for inflation. In 1995, 

the median earnings of men was $31,496.

The female-to-male earnings ratio for

year-round, full-time workers in 1995 

was 0.71, not statistically different from 

the all-time high ratio of 0.72 reached 

in 1990.

There was a significant drop in

both the number of people living

below the poverty level and the

poverty rate from 1994 to 1995.

In 1995, the number of people below

the official government poverty level was

36.4 million, representing 13.8 percent 

of the Nation’s population—both significantly lower than the corresponding 1994

figures of 38.1 million poor and a poverty

rate of 14.5 percent. However, the 1995

poverty rate is still higher than the 1989

rate of 13.1 percent, the most recent low

point achieved during the economic expansion of November 1982 to July 1990

(figure 3).

Children under 18 continue to represent a very large segment of the poor 

(40 percent) even though they make up

only about one-fourth of the total population. Children under age 6 have been particularly vulnerable. In 1995, the overall

poverty rate for related11 children under 

6 years of age was 23.7 percent. 

10 Households are ranked from lowest to highest

according to household income, then divided

into five equal-sized groups.

11 Related children in a family include own

children and all other children in the household

who are related to the householder by blood,

marriage, or adoption.

Over 40 million people do not have

health insurance. 

Throughout the entire 1995 calendar

year, an estimated 41 million people in the

United States (15.4 percent of the population) were without health insurance (unchanged from the previous year). Most

people (70.3 percent) were covered by a

private insurance plan for some or all of

1995. Most private insurance was employment-based, in that it was obtained

through a current or former employer or

union (figure 4). The remaining insured

people had government coverage, including Medicare (13.1 percent), Medicaid

(12.1 percent), and military health care

(3.5 percent). Many people are covered

by more than one plan.

Despite the existence of programs such

as Medicaid and Medicare, 30.2 percent

of the poor (11 million) had no health insurance of any kind during 1995. This

percentage—which was double the rate

for all people—was unchanged from the

previous year. Poor people comprised

27.1 percent of all uninsured people.

Medicaid was the most widespread type

of coverage among the poor, covering

46.4 percent of them at some time

during 1995.
U.S. Department of Commerce

BUREAU OF THE CENSUS

Washington, DC 20233

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4 Demographic State of the Nation: 1997

About 1 in 7 Americans

participated in major means-tested

assistance programs in 1993. 12

Of the estimated 258 million civilians

living in the United States in 1993,

approximately 36 million (14.0 percent)

participated in at least one of the major

means-tested assistance programs,

compared with about 27 million (11.4 percent) in 1987 (figure 5). In 1993, the average monthly participation rate for Medicaid (10.3 percent) was higher than that

for food stamps, AFDC or General Assistance, housing assistance, or SSI.

Only 8.6 percent of persons participated in these programs in all 24 months

of the 1992-93 period. These long-term

recipients were likely to be children or

persons at least 65 years old. About 14.1

percent of children and 9.7 percent of the

elderly participated in these programs in

each month of 1992 and 1993, compared

with 6.0 percent of persons who were 18

to 64 years old.

The 1995 homeownership rate was

at its highest level since 1983.

In 1995, 65 percent of occupied housing units were lived in by their owners.13

This is the highest homeownership rate

since 1983, and 0.7 percentage points

above the 1994 rate.

12 Major means-tested programs include Aid to

Families with Dependent Children (AFDC),

General Assistance, food stamps, Supplemental

Security Income (SSI), Medicaid, and housing

assistance.

13 Homeownership data were compiled from the

Housing Vacancy Survey.

1987 1988 1990 1991 1992 1993

Figure 5.

Average Monthly Participation in at Least One

Means-Tested Program: 1987–88 and 1990–93

(Percent)

14.0 13.5

11.5

12.7

11.4 11.2

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 

Current Population Reports, Series P70-58.

Married-couple families were much

more likely to own their own homes than

were other types of family or nonfamily

households—80 percent in 1995,

compared with 55 percent for families

maintained by men and 45 percent for

families maintained by women. 

In 1995, 51 percent of one-person

households owned their own homes. The

homeownership rate was 44 percent for

men living alone and 55 percent for

women living alone.

There were 113 million housing

units in the United States in 1995, of

which 65 million were owner occupied,

35 million were renter occupied, and 13

million were vacant.

For further information, call (301):

National population projections

Kevin Deardorff 457-2397

Living arrangements

Arlene Saluter 457-2465

Child care

Lynne Casper 457-2416

Educational attainment

Jennifer Day 457-2464

Foreign-born population

Carol Faber 457-2454

Income

HHES Information Area 763–8576

Poverty

HHES Information Area 763–8576

Health insurance

HHES Information Area 763-8576

Program participation

Jan Tin 763-8375

Homeownership and vacancies

Robert Callis 763-8165

General information on this report

Jean Bradley 457-2390

Source and Accuracy of Estimates

Data presented here are from the Current Population Survey, the Survey of Income and Program Participation, and the

Housing Vacancy Survey, as well as from

independent population estimates and projections. The survey data are subject to

sampling variability as well as to survey

design errors, respondent classification

and reporting errors, and data processing

errors. The Census Bureau has taken

steps to minimize errors, and statistical

statements have been tested and meet statistical standards. Further information can

be found in the detailed reports.