United States 

Department of 

Agriculture 

Forest Service 

Northeastern Forest - ~ ~ 

Experiment Station 

Research Paper NE-632 

- 

Timber Value Growth Rates 

in New England 

David A. Gansner 

Stanford L. Arner &571~ @ %.r~m.w Thomas W. Birch 
Abstract 

Rates of growth in the value of standing timber can vary greatly from stand to 

stand and from tree to tree. In Maine, the compound annual rate of change in 

stand value between the two most recent forest inventories ranged from -12 to 

+43 percent. Faced with this kind of variation, forest managers can use help in 

determining financial rates of return for their woodland. From analyses of forest 

inventory data we have developed guides for estimating value growth potential for 

trees in New England. 

The Authors 

DAVID A. GANSNER, STANFORD L. ARNER, and THOMAS W. BIRCH are 

resource analysts with the Forest Inventory and Analysis Work Unit at the 

Northeastern Forest Experiment Station, Radnor, PA. 

Manuscript received for publication 1 August 1989 

Northeastern Forest Experiment Station 

100 Matsonford Road, Radnor, PA 19087 

February 1990 
Introduction 

Many things affect changes in timber value-tree species, 

size and quality; stand density and site productivity; markets 

and accessibility; insects and disease; even weather. So 

rates of growth in the value of standing timber can vary 

greatly from stand to stand and from tree to tree. For 

example, a recent study shows that compound annual rates 

of change in value for forest stands sampled in Maine 

between 1971 and I982 ranged from -1 2 to + 43 percent.' 

At today's stumpage prices, a well-stocked stand of goodquality cherry or oak, on a productive and accessible site, 

can grow to yield a landowner more than $2,500 per acre. 

That is a hundred times more than what some ridgetop 

chestnut oak stands can do. With this kind of variation, 

forest managers can use all the help they can get in 

determining financial rates of return for their woodlot. To 

help meet this need, we analyzed recent forest inventory 

measurements in New England to quantify changes in the 

tree value there. Our ultimate goal is to provide practical 

guides for estimating timber value growth rates in the 

region. 

Approach 

Data 

The USDA Forest Service updates statewide timber 

resource information approximately every 10 years. Part of 

the updating process includes remeasuring a network of 

permanent forest-inventory plots. Plots (0.1 to 0.2 acres) 

that were measured in New England during the early 1970's 

were remeasured from 1982 through 1985 (Powell and 

Dickson 1984, Frieswyk and Malley 1985a,b; Dickson and 

McAfee 1988a,b,c). Data from more than 1 ,I 00 of these 

plots were used to analyze value growth. We included only 

those plots that remained relatively undisturbed, i.e., had 

less than 15 percent of their original basal area removed by 

people between inventories. These plots accounted for 

more than three-fourths of the total area sampled. The 

analysis incorporated more than 27,000 trees that were 

alive and 5.0 inches or larger in d.b.h. (diameter at breast 

height measured 4-112 feet above the ground) at the time of 

the initial inventories. 

Analysis 

Rates of change in tree value were based on measured 

changes in tree diameter, merchantable height, and quality. 

Compound annual rates of value change (r) were obtained 

using the expression: 

where n is the number of years between measurements, Vn 

is the value of a tree after n years, and Vo is its initial value. 

Dollar values for hardwood sawtimber trees were based on 

tree-value conversion standards for 1984.~ These standards 

represent consistent regional measures of a standing tree's 

net value (marginal value product or shadow price) in the 

production of 414 (1-inch) lumber, allowing for the cost of 

conversion. They account for a tree's species, diameter, 

merchantable height, and tree grade (based on butt-log 

grade measures). For example, a 16-inchdiameter red oak 

with a grade 2 butt log and merchantable height of 2 logs 

was valued at $29. For trees other than hardwood 

sawtimber, merchantable height, d.b.h., and cull estimates 

were converted to net volumes (Scott 1981) and assigned 

value based on recent local stumpage price information. For 

example, white pine sawtimber stumpage averages about 

$70 per thousand board feet and spruce and fir pulpwood 

averages about $10 per cord. 

The same (constant) dollar-value standards were applied to 

both initial and current measurements to evaluate tree 

development, thereby eliminating valuation items that are 

irrelevant to biological change. This ignores unpredictable 

effects of inflation and changes in timber prices and 

markets, but does focus on the value of biological change in 

tree diameter, merchantable height, and tree grade. The 

few trees that were harvested betwken inventories were 

assigned the same value for both occasions. 

The combined influence of tree and stand characteristics on 

rates of change in timber value was studied by Automatic 

Interaction Detection (AID) (Songuist et al. 1973). This 

statistical technique searched characteristics of the trees 

and timber stands for the best predictors of value change. 

Starting with the entire sample of trees in one group, the 

trees were partitioned through successive two-way splits 

into series of subgroups. The splits occur so that, at each 

step, the chosen predictor variable forms two new groups 

that cause the greatest reduction of variance in the 

dependent variable (value change). The result is a best set 

of predictors selected by the AID algorithm, and presented 

as a branching diagram that details the rate of value change 

configuration for individual trees as they responded to timber 

stand dynamics between the New England forest surveys. 

Gansner, David A.; Arner, Stanford L.; Zarnoch, Stanley J. 

Timber value growth rates in Maine. Submitted to Northern 

Journal of Applied Forestry. 

2De~ald, Paul S. Tree value conversion standards 

revisited. Research Paper, Northeastern Forest Experiment 

Station. In preparation. 
Results higher mortality rates and declines in quality, nongrowingstock trees recorded negative rates of change. 

Between the last two forest inventories of New England, the 

annual rate of change for all trees in our sample averaged 

3.2 percent. Multivariable analysis of several tree and stand 

characteristics identified four that are significantly related to 

change in tree value: tree species, size, merchantability 

class, and stand density. 

Species.-Compound rates of value change for individual 

timber species ranged from 5.8 to 0.5 percent, reflecting the 

great amount of variability in value growth for New England 

trees (Fig. 1). White ash, red oak, and white pine, which are 

known for their vigorous growth, had the highest rates. At 

the other end of the scale are beech, fir, and white oak 

which have suffered through outbreaks of Nectria complex, 

spruce budworm and gypsy moth, respectively. 

Diameter.-Value change rates increase through the 8- to 

10-inch diameter classes before declining in the larger 

diameters. The higher average rates for 8- and 10-inch trees 

are due in large part to their growth into higher valued 

sawtimber-size material: 

Diameter class Rate of 

(inches) value change 

(percent) 

<8 

8-1 0 

12-1 4 

1 6-1 8 

20 + 

All trees 

The base or initial value of trees is important to the relative 

differences in their rate of change in value. Consider for 

example: 

Initial End Rate of 

value value Value No. of value change 

(Vo) (V,) change years (percent) 

---------- (dollars) ---------- 

1.00 2.00 1.00 ? 0 7.2 

5.00 6.00 1.00 10 1.8 

In both examples, value increased by $1. But the smaller 

initial value in the first example ($1 versus $5) yields a much 

greater rate of value change over the 10 years. 

I Tree class.-Tree class reflects tree quality and quality 

correlates directly with rate of value change. Because of 

Tree class Rate of 

value change 

(percent) 

Growing stock 3.3 

Rough -1.6 

Rotten -2.4 

All trees 3.2 

Growing-stock trees are those of commercial species that 

are merchantable for sawlogs now or in the future. Rough 

trees are unmerchantable for sawlogs because of 

roughness, poor form, or unacceptable species. Rotten 

trees are unmerchantable for sawlogs because of rot. 

SPECIES 

WHITE 

RED 

ASH 

OAK 

5 

Figure 1 .-Compound rates of value change for individual 

tree species in New England. 

WHITE PINE 

HARD MAPLE 

ASPEN 

HEMLOCK 

SOFT MAPLE 

SPRUCE 

PAPER BIRCH 

OTHER SOFTWOOD 

OTHER HARDWOOD 

YELLOW BIRCH 

WHITE OAK 

FIR 

N.WHITE CEDAR 

BEECH 1 0.5 

I I Ill I Ill 
Stocking.-As undisturbed forests mature, they tend to form 

more densely stocked, slower growing timber stands that 

also contribute to a slowdown in rates of value change for 

individual trees. Value growth rates for trees in stands with 

fewer than 60 square feet of basal area are more than 

double those for trees in stands with more than 140 square 

feet: 

Basal area/acre Rate of 

(square feet) value change 

(percent) 

< 60 

60- 99 

100-1 39 

140 + 

All trees 

Predicting Rate of Change 

Automatic interaction detection analysis of the rate of value I 

change in individual trees generated nine mutually 

exclusive classification groups and the average rate of 

value change for each group (Fig. 2). Each tree is a 

member of one of the groups. Only four of the many tree 

and timber stand characteristics analyzed as predictor 

variables were retained in this value growth rate 

classification system: tree class, species, diameter, and 

stocking. White pine growing-stock trees less than 9 inches 

in diameter and growing in stands with fewer than 80 

square feet of basal area per acre (Group 16) have the 

highest rate of value change, 19.2 percent, compared to 3.2 

percent for the total sample. On the other hand, as 

testimony to high mortality rates and declines in quality, 

rotten trees have the lowest rate of value change, -2.4 

percent (Group 7). 

<80 

r=19.2 

<9.0" 

r=16.8 BASAL AREA/ACRE 

17 

WHITE PINE DIAMETER 80+ 

r=14.9 

9.O"+ 

SPECIES r=2.4 

14 

9.0-1 2.9" 

2 r= 10.0 

GROWING STOCK RED OAK. WHITE AS 

r==J.J DIAMETER 

15 

ALL OTHER 

DIAMETERS - HARD MAPLE. SOFT MAPLE. P.BIRCH. 

ALL TREES ASPEN. SPRUCE. HEMLOCK 

r=3.2 TREE CLASS SPECIES 11 

1.09 6 

ROUGH 

r=-1.6 

TREE CLASS 

7 

Y.BIRCH. BEECH. W.OAK. FIR. 

N.W.CEDAR. OTHER SPECIES 

Figure 2.-Guide for estimating rate of value change for individual trees. Any tree can 

be assigned to a value-change group on the basis of the characteristics of that tree. The 

average rate of value change (r) is shown for each group. Fractions on each line 

connecting groups indicate the portion of the New England sample in that group. 
Guides for Estimating Value Growth 

Work tables showing rates of tree value growth (R) by 

diameter and stand stocking class (Tables 1A to 14B) 

provide guides for estimating rates of value change for New 

England's major timber species. Since most timber 

managers are not concerned with the development of culls, 

only growing-stock trees are considered. 

Not surprisingly, white ash, red oak, and white pine led all 

other species of growing-stock in rates of value growth, 

while beech, white oak and fir had the lowest rates. In 

general, large poletimber-size trees on the verge of growing 

into higher valued sawtimber exhibit the highest rates of 

growth. And growth rates tend to decline with increases in 

tree size and stand stocking. Sample sizes (N) and standard 

errors (SE) for mean rates (R) give users a basis for gauging 

the reliability of table data. Beware of estimates based on a 

small number of sample trees andlor with large sampling 

errors. 

Growing-stock trees that survived (Tables 1 B-14B) between 

forest inventories recorded a compound average annual 

change in value of 4.4 percent, about 1 percent greater than 

the average for all growing-stock trees: 

Species group Rate of 

value change 

(percent) 

White ash. 

Red oak 

White oak 

Aspen 

Fir 

Hard maple 

White pine 

Soft maple 

Other hardwoods 

Hemlock 

Paper birch 

Spruce 

Yellow birch 

Other softwood, 

Northern white-cedar 

Beech 

All surviving growing stock 4.4 

Mortality rates for two of the region's important commercial 

species, fir and white oak, were especially high. However, 

fir and white oak growing-stock trees that survived scored 

relatively high average annual value gains of 4.6 and 4.8 

percent, respectively. 

In fact, most of the growing-stock trees that survived in New 

England between forest inventories did relatively well. The 

rates are especially impressive when you consider they are 

for trees in stands that had little human disturbance or 

improvement cutting between inventories. 

Literature Cited 

Dickson, David. R.; McAfee, Carol L. 1988a. Forest 

statistics for Connecticut-1972 and 1985. Resour. 

Bull. NE-105. Broomall, PA: U.S. Department of 

Agriculture, Forest Service, Northeastern Forest 

Experiment Station. 102 p. 

Dickson, David R.; McAfee, Carol L. 1988b. Forest 

statistics for Massachusetts-1 972 and 1985. Resour. 

Bull. NE-106. Broomall, PA: U.S. Department of 

Agriculture, Forest Service, Northeastern Forest 

Experiment Station. 11 2 p. 

Dickson, David R.; McAfee, Carol L. 1988c. Forest 

Statistics for Rhode Island-1972 and 1985. Resour. 

Bull. NE-104. Broomall, PA: U.S. Department of 

Agriculture, Forest Service, Northeastern Forest 

Experiment Station. 96 p. 

Frieswyk, Thomas S.; Malley, Anne M. 1985a. Forest 

statistics for New Hampshire 1973 and 1983. Resour. 

Bull. NE-88. Broomall, PA: U.S. Department of 

Agriculture, Forest Service, Northeastern Forest 

Experiment Station. 100 p. 

Frieswyk, Thomas S.; Malley, Anne M. 1985b. Forest 

statistics for Vermont 1973 and 1983. Resour. Bull. 

NE-87. Broomall, PA: US. Department of Agriculture, 

Forest Service, Northeastern Forest Experiment Station. 

102 p. 

Powell, Douglas S.; Dickson, David R. 1984. Forest 

statistics for Maine: 1971 and 1982. Resour. Bull. 

NE-81. Broomall, PA: U.S. Department of Agriculture, 

Forest Service, Northeastern Forest Experiment Station. 

194 p. 

Scott, Charles T. 1981. Northeastern forest survey 

revised cubic-foot volume equations. Broomall, PA: 

U .S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, 

Northeastern Forest Experiment Station. 3 p. 

Songuist, J. A.; Baker, E. D.; Morgan, J. N. 1973. 

Searching for structure. Ann Arbor, MI: University of 

Michigan, Institute for Social Research, Survey Research 

Center. 236 p. 
RATE DF VALUE CHAVGE(Rlr SARPLE SIZE(N)r AND STANDARD ERROK(SEl 

9Y SPECIES GROUP* OlAf4ETER CLASSY AND RASAL AREA CLASS 

ALL GROkING STOCK 

' RASAL AREA CLASS - 5ClUAPE FEET I 

, 

<en , 80-119 . 120+ : ALL BASAL AREAS : . ;--------------------+----------------------+--------------------+--------------------; 

* :R N SEX N SER N SEK N SF: 

:--------------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------: 

:ilIAFETtR CLASS: I 1 I I t I I a 1 I I : 

: INCPLS I I t 8 . .I : . I I 

. . , I . 1 I : 

:5-8.9 : 4.5: 836: 0.24: 3.4: 797: 0.24: 3.6: 373: 0.33: 3.9: 1996: 0.15: 

:--------------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------*------+------+------+------+------: 

:9-10.9 : 0 99: 0.69: 3-11 149: 0.49; 3.0: 113: 0.49: 3.0: 360: 0.31: 

:--------------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------; 

: 11-12.9 : 4.9: 75: 0.96: 5.1: 127: 0.58: 3.2: 95: 0.65: 4.5: 297: 0.42: 

;--------------+------+------+------+------+------+------*------+------+------+------+------+--------: 

: 13-14 -5 : 2.6: 27: 1-82: 4.6: 45: 1-12; 4.9: 36: 1-51; 3.9: 108: 0.84: 

:--------------+------+------+----+---+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------; 

: 15+ ; 4.D: 27: 1-91! 1.8: 44: 1-68: 2.0: 56: 2-00: 23 127: 1.12: 

:ALLLIlA?'ETtQS: 4.1: 1963: 0.67: 3.3: 1152: 0.78: 2.9: 673: 1.07: 3.4: 2888: 0.50: ................................................................................................... 
&bTE OF VALUE CHANGE(R)r SAMPLE SILEIN)r AND STAhDARD ERRDRISE) 

RY SPECIES GROUP* DIAMETER CLASS* AND BASAL AREA CLASS 

ALL GIflYING STOCK 

* 

t I JASAL AKEA CLASS - 5OUAKE FEET I 

, ;----------------------------------------------------------------------------------; 

(80 80-119 lZ0+ ! ALL BASAL AREAS : 

TARLE 5A - dF€Ch 

-------_-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

* BASAL AREA CLASS - SOUARE FEET I 

;-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------; 

<eO 80-119 i 120+ : ALL BASAL AREAS : 

;--------------------+--------------------+--------------------+--------------------; 

;K N SEK N SER SER N SE: 

:--------------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------; 

:DlAi+iT€R CLASS: I I 4 . I t I v I 

: INCkt 5 . 1 I : ' I I : t I I 

, , I I I : I 

:'J-3.9 ; 4.1: 749: 0.40: 3.1: 242: 0.47: 0.7: 54: 0.92: 3.3: 544: 0.29: 

:--------------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------*------+------; 

:Y-lC.? : 1.5: 31: 0.87: 2.0: 37: 0.60; -2.6: 20: 110 0.9: 88: 0.49; 

:--------------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------; 

: 11-lL.9 : 0.6: L7: 0.83: 1.1: 55: 0.62: -1.5: 26: 1.09: 0.4: 108: 0.46: :--------------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------: 

:i3-14.4 : -0.2: 16; 0.96: -1.0: 27: ill 0.9: 15: 1-04; -0.3: 58: 0.63: 

:--------------+------+------+------+------+------+------*------+------+------+------+------+------: 

: 15+ ; -4.9: 15: 1-99: -1.5: 18: 1-27; -2.5: 9: 2.06: -2.7: 42: 0.95: 

:--------------+------,--------+------*------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------: 

:ALL olartTtQS : 1.9: 337: 0.60: 1.4: 379: 0.61; -0.9: 124: 0.91: 1.2: 840: 0.39: 

TASLF 6A - uHITt ASH 

I RASAL ARFh CLASS - 5OUAKE FEET I 

;-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------; 

<bO 80-119 I 120+ : ALL BASAL AREAS : 

;--------------------+--------------------+--------------------+--------------------: 

: :V St Y SER b SER N SE: 

*--------------+------+----+---+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------: 

:dIAFtTEQ CLASS: I I I I . I 1 : 

: IVCPtS I . . : I 1 : 

: 5-0.Y : 9.6: 69: 2.77: 4.2: 94: 1.02: 10.0: 34: 3-87! 7.5: 187: 1-53; 

;--------------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------; 

:V-LC.q 13.0: 15: 3-48; 14.7: 22: 2-90; 15.8: 7: 6.03: 14.4: 44: 2-05: 

*--------------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------; 

: 11-1L.F 7.7: 9: 3.36: 9.5: 70: 1-65; 10.8: 9: 2-44! 9.2: 38: 1.42: :--------------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------: 

: 13-14.Y 4.1: 9: 2.24: 7.5: 7: 2.59: 7.1: 4: 1-83: 6 20: 1-36; *,--,----,--,-,+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------: 

: 15, 2.3: 7: 2-62; 5.1: 8: 2-84; 3.4: 7: 5-02; 3.6: 22: 2-33; a--------------+------+----+---+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------: 

:ALL CIAYET~QI : 5.0: 109: 3.01: 7.5: 141: 2.65: 4.8: 61: 4.97: 5.8: 311: 2.28: 
RATE DF VALUE CHANGE(R1y SAqPLk SIZElNlr AND STANDARD ERRORtSFl 

BY SPECIES GROUP* DIAMETER CLASS* AND SASAL AkEA CLASS 

ALL GROHING STOCK 

TABLE 7A - KED UAK ---------------------*----------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

I SASAL AREA CLASS - SObAYE FkET I 

; (80 80-119 1 120+ : ALL 8ASAL ARtAS ; I ;--------------------+--------------------+--------------------+--------------------; I :R N SEK N SF b SEKN SE: 

;--------------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------; 

:OIAFETtR CLASS: I I a 

: IMCWES I I a < I I 1 

:--------------: I I 1 1 I I 

:5-8.9 : 4.6: 563: 0.32: 5.1: 186: 0.91: 2.6: 62: 0.62: 4.6: 811: 0.33: :--------------+------+------+----+---+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------: 

:9-lC.9 : 13.7: 110: 1.04: 11.9 68: 1.34: 10.2: 35: 1-76; 12.7: 213: 0.75: 

:--------------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------; 

:11-12.9 : 8.4: 124: 0.77: 8.9: 81: 1-03; 6.4: 46: 1-15; 8.5: 251: 0.55: 

TABLE 8d - *HITE OA& 

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 RASAC AREA CLAS> - SOUARE FEET I 

:-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------; I 1 <80 I 80-119 I 12O+ : ALL tlAS4L ARtAS : I ;--------------------+-------------------+--------------------+-------------------; 

s :R k St N SER h SER N SF: 

;--------------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------*------+------+------+------+------; 

:DIAfETER CLASS: I * I 1 I I . I I 

: INChES s . I I 1 I I 1 * 

: --------------: I t : I . I I . : 5-8.9 : 1.0: 230: 0.38: 0.2: 101: 0.59: 0.1: 20: 1.1 0.7: 351: 0.31: 

:--------------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------; 

:9-10.9 : 2.6: 21: 0.85: 0.2: 36: G.96: -0.5: 8: 7.01 1.0: 65: 0.63: 

;--------------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------; 

: 11-12.9 : 3.5: 27: 1.47: 5.0: 33: 1-35; 3.8: 6: 3.05: 4 50: 0.98: :--------------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------: 

:13-14.9 : 7.1: 12: 1.80: 3.2: 28: 1-44: 2.7: 3: 4-83: 47 43: 1-25; 

:--------------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------*------; 

: 15+ 2.1: 9: 2-69: 1.7: 17: 2-28; -19.b: 6; 5.51: -0.4: 32: 1.79: 

:--------------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+-----+------+------+------+------; 

:ALL DIAMETERS : 3.0: 299: 1.98: 2.2: 215: 1-77; -8.8: 43: 4.58: 1.4: 557: 1.39: .................................................................................................... 

TASLF 9A - ASYEN .................................................................................................... : BASAL AKEA CLASS - SQUPKE FEET 1 

;-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------a I 

I (50 80-119 120+ : ALL RASAL AREA) : 
RATE OF VALUE CHANbE(R 1. SAMPLE SIZE(W) r A&D STAkDARD fQRORISE1 

4Y SPECIES GROUP, DIARETER CLASSr AhD BASAL AREA CLASS 

ALL GROUIhG STOCK 
KATE OF VALUk CHANGEtRI, SAMPLE SIZE(N)r AND STANDARD ERRORfSE) 

RY SPECIES GROUP* DIAMETER CLASS* AN0 BASAL AREA CLASS 

ALL GROYING STOCK 
KATE OF VALUE CHANGE(R)r SAMPLE SILE(NJ, AND STANDARO ERROK(SE1 

8Y SPECIES GROUP, DIAMETER CLASS* AND RASAL AREA CLASS 

GROWING STUCK THAT SURVIVEG 

TA~LE 18 - tfARO YAPLE .................................................................................................... 

I I RASAL AREA CLASS - SQUARE FEET I 

, I I (80 80-119 I 120+ : ALL BASAL AREAS : , :R h Sk.:K N SER hi StR Y SE: 

:OIACETER CLASS: 1 t I I I I , I I , . 

TABLE 78 - SOFT YAPLF 

I I BASAL AREA CLASS - SQUIRF FEET t 

:-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------; I I (80 1 80-119 120+ : ALL BASAL ARtAS ; 

:N SfR V SER N SEK Y SE; :--------------+-----+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------: 

:UIAPETEP CLASS: I I I I 1 1 : I 

: INCI'ES I I I I I I : . I I 

:--------------; ; I , I I 1 : 1 I 

:5-8.9 : 4.9: 792: 0.24: 3.8: 742: 0.23: 3.9: 342: 0.33: 4.3: 187b: 3-15; :--------------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------: 

: 9-10.9 : 3.6: 91: 0.67: 3.7: 137: 0.46: 3.6: 106: 0.46: 3.6: 334: 0.30: 

:--------------+------+-----+------+-----++-+------+------+------+------+------+------; 

: 11-12.9 : 5.3: 70: 0.95: 5.5: 122: 0.55: 3.7: 92: 0.59: 4.9: 284: 0.40: :--------------+------+------+------+------+----++------+------+------+------.+------+------: 

: 13-14.9 ; 3.1: 26: 1.91: 4.9: 431 1.11: 4.9: 33: 1-43: 4.4: 102: 0.81: 

;-------------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------: 

: 15+ : 4.7: 25: 1.85: 1.9: 42: 1-70; 4.1: 52: 1-39; 3.3: 120: 0.97: :--------------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+-----: 

:ALLUtAMETERS ; 4.6: 1005: 0.68: 3.6: 1086: 0.30: 3.9: 625: 0.80: 4.0: 2716: 0.45: .................................................................................................... 

kATE OF VALUt CHAYGEIRI* SAMPLt SIZE(NI, Ah0 STANDAQG tRROR1SE) 

BY SPECIES GRDUPI DiANfTER CLASS- AND BASAL AREA CLASS 

GQOWING STOCK THAT SURVIVEG 
RATE RC VALUE CHANCEfRlr SAMPLE SIZE(N)r AND STAkDARD ERKOK(SE) 

RY SPECIES 6ROUPr DIAMETER CLASS* AND BASAL AREA CLASS 

CROkING STOCK THaT SURVIVED 

BASAL AREA CLASS - SOUPI?€ FEET : 

;-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------; 

<dO I 80-119 I 120+ : ALL 6ASAL ARkAS : 

;--------------------+--------------------+--------------------+--------------------; 

:R h StK N SER N SER N SF: :--------------+------+------+----+-+------+------+-----+------+------+------+------+------~ 

! Dl ANETES CLASS: I 1 I I I I I 

: I%LCtS I I I I 1 1 , I I 

;--------------: * I ; 1 I , I 

: 5-6 -9 : 17.8: 728: 1.02: 9.0: 102: 1.95: 11.0: 137: 1-20: 14.3: 467: 0-75: 

:--------------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------; 

: 7-8.9 : 21.4: 123: 0.58: 18.0: 85: 1.02: 19.4: 98: 0.71: 20.0: 306: 0-42: 

:--------------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+-----; 

:9-10.9 : 4.2: 108: 0.26: 3.4: 108: 0.25: 4.3: 119: 0.20: 4.0: 335: 0.14: 

:--------------+------+------+------+------+------*------+------+------+------+------*------+------; 

: 11-12.9 : 4.0: 92: 0.27: 3.4: 72: 0.28: 3.8: 96: 0.25: 3.9: 260: 0.15: 

:--------------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------; 

:13-14.9 : 2.6: 44: 0.48: 3.3: 53: 0.29: 3.6: 55: 0.28: 3.2: 152: 0.20: 

:--------------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------; 

: 15+ : 1.6: 63: 0.57: 2.2: 63: 0.54: 2.0: 121: 0.58: 2.0: 247: 0.36: .--------------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------: 

:ALLDIAMETERS: 5.4: 658: 0.63: 3.9: 483: 0.58: 3.7: 626: 0.56: 4.2: 1767: 0.35: 
KATF OF VALUt CHANGE(R1, SAMPLE SIZEtN). AND STANDARD ERKOK(SE1 

9Y SPECIES GROUP* DIARFTFR CLASb* AND BASAL AREA CLASS 

GROW IVb STOCK THAT SURVIVED 

TASLF 148 - HtPLOCK ................................................................................................... BASAL AREA CLASS - SOUAGE FEET i 

:--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

(80 : RU-119 120+ : ALL BASIL AREAS : 

< :R : StR N SER N SEK N SE: 

:--------------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+-----; 

:dInPETtR CLASS: a *a s a I 1 I I 4 I : ! I 

:INCt'ES I I I I I I ' I , ; t I I I I I I I I . : 5-6 .9 : 6.5: 111: 0.53: 3.9: 186: 0.41: 3.2: 218: 0.34: 4.3: 515: 0.27: 

:--------------+------+------+------+------+------+----+-+---+------+------+------+-----; 

: 7-6 .9 : 11.0: 76: 0.52: 8.4: 136: 0.50: 8.0: 178: 0.44: 6-91 390: 0.29: :--------------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------: 

:Y-IC.q : 3.2: 120: O.2L: 2.9: 162: 0.16: 2.61 193: 0.17: 2.8: 475: O*LI: 

;--------------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------: 

ill-12.9 ; 3.3: 46; 0.27: 2.3: 88: 21 25 80: 0.23: 2.6: 214: 0.14: 

:--------------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------; 

:13-14.9 : 3.2: 18: 0.31: 2.6: 39: 0.26; 2.2: 41: 0.26: 2.6: 96: 0.17: 

: 15+ : 2.6: 20: 0.72: 2.2: 40: 0.63: 1.'9: 45: 0.47: 2.2: 105: 0.34: 

:--------------*------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------; 

:ALLCILMETERS: 4.6: 391: 0.54: 3.4: b51: 0.47: 3.3: 755: 0.45: 3.7: 1797: 0.28; ................................................................................................... 
Gansner, David A,; Arner, Stanford L.; Birch, Thomas W. 1990. Timber 

value growth rates in New England. Res. Pap. NE-632. Radnor, PA: 

U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Northeastern Forest 

Experiment Station. 14 p. 

Rates of growth in the value of standing timber can vary greatly from stand 

to stand and from tree to tree. In Maine, the compound annual rate of 

change in stand value between the two most recent forest inventories 

ranged from -12 to +43 percent. Faced with this kind of variation, forest 

managers can use help in determining financial rates of return for their 

woodland. From analyses of forest inventory data we have developed 

guides for estimating value growth potential for trees in New England. 

ODC: 653:748 

Keywords: Compound interest; financial objectives; hardwood and 

softwood forests 

rU. S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE: 19901748-070100020 
Headquarters of the Northeastern Forest Experiment Station is in Radnor, Pennsylvanla. Field laboratories are maintained at: 

Amherst, Massachusetts, in cooperation with the University of Massachusetts 

Berea, Kentucky, in cooperation with Berea College 

Burlington, Vermont, in cooperation with the University of Vermont 

Detaware, Ohio 

Durham, New Hampshire, in cooperation with the University of New Hampshire 

Hamden, Connecticut, in cooperation with Yale University 

Morgantown, West Virginia, in cooperation with West Virginia University 

Orono, Maine, in cooperation with the University of Maine 

Parsons, West Virginia 

Princeton, West Virginia 

Syracuse, New York, in cooperation with the State University of New York, College of Environmental Sciences and Forestry at Syracuse University 

University Park, Pennsylvania, in cooperation with The Pennsylvania State University 

Warren, Pennsylvania 

Persons of any race, color, national origin, sex, age, religion, or with any handicapping condition are welcome to use and enjoy all facilities, programs, and services of 

the USDA. Discrimination in any form is strictly against agency policy, and should be 

reported to the Secretary of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20250.