OTA Priorities 1979, With Brief

Descriptions of Priorities and of

Assessments in Progress

March 1979
Office of Technology Assessment

Congressional Board

(95th Congrees)

Senator EDWARD M. KENNEDY, Mass., Chairman

Representative LARRY WINN, JR., Kans., Vice Chairman

Senate House

ERNEST F. HOLLINGS OLIN E. TEAGUE

South Carolina Texas

ADLAI E. STEVENSON MORRIS K. UDALL

Illinois Arizona

CLIFFORD P. CASE GEORGE E. BROWN, JR.

Nero Jersey California

TED STEVENS CLARENCE E. MILLER

Alaska Ohio

ORRIN G. HATCH JOHN W. WYDLER

Utah New York

RUSSELL W. PETERSON

ex officio

Director’s Office

RUSSELL W. PETERSON, Director

DANIEL De SIMONE, Deputy Director

Advisory Council

JEROME B. WIESNER GILBERT GUDE

Chairman HAZEL HENDERSON

FREDERICK. ROBBINS

Vice Chairman CHARLES N. KIMBALL

J. FRED BUCY J. M. LEATHERS

RONALD R. DAVENPORT JOHN T. McALISTER, JR.

JAMES C. FLETcHER ELMER B. STAATS

EDWARD WENK, JR.
Foreword

This report describes the first priorities list developed by the Office

of Technology Assessment (OTA) as a result of a new and ongoing

process for selecting possible projects for study.

OTA was created in 1972 to provide Congress with early indications of the broad range of impacts of technological applications on our

society. Those impacts include the beneficial and the adverse, the physical, biological, economic, social, and political. OTA is required to

bring a long-term global and comprehensive perspective to bear and to

provide Congress with independent, authoritative, evenhanded

assessments.

This approach provides Members of Congress with one means of

stepping back from the near-term and more narrow issues which crowd

their busy calendars to focus on longer term and more comprehensive

issues which often crosscut the jurisdictions of several congressional

committees.

OTA’s projects are initiated on approval by its Technology

Assessment Board of six Senators and six Congressmen. Requests for

studies may be made to the Board from three different perspectives: by

chairmen of congressional committees, by members of the Board, and

by the Director of OTA upon consultation with the Board.

Until this year nearly all requests have come from congressional

committees with a few from Board members. This report describes the

first effort to complement the committee and Board perspectives with

priorities suggested by the Director.

This new OTA priority-setting process has been open and broadly

participatory. Between February and May 1978, over 5,000 people

were asked to consider the critical technological issues that they

thought were of especial importance to the United States and the world

and to submit their top choices to us. People solicited included approximately 1,000 who have been advisors to OTA—consultants, contractors, and panel members. The staffs of OTA, the General Accounting

Office, and the Congressional Research Service were deeply involved.

From these efforts to reach as broad and informed a public as possible, OTA received 1,530 suggested topics for study. Another 2,875

items were extracted from the published literature. To cope with this

large list, OTA mobilized its staff to organize, combine, winnow, and

rank the candidates into a manageable list of 30 items.

In this process the Technology Assessment Advisory Council

played a major role devoting nearly all its efforts for 9 months to proposing, critiquing, and ranking items for the

members’ expertise and broad experience made

especially valuable to the process.

To facilitate the sorting and ranking process,

developed criteria of what constitutes a preferred

five most important criteria are as follows:

list. The Council

their contribution

OTA’s senior staff

OTA project. The
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Does the assessment involve the impact of technology?

Is there congressional interest?

Does the technology impact significantly on human needs and

quality of life?

Would the assessment provide foresight?

Can OTA do the assessment?

All members of the Board as well as their staff liaison with OTA

were involved in the priority-setting process. In addition, the staffs of

nearly all congressional committees were consulted. At a joint meeting

of the Board and the Advisory Council called to consider the priority

list, unanimous support was received for the process.

During the year-long consideration of priorities, seven were

selected for activation in 1978 and approved by the Board. They are as

follows:

● Alternative National Energy Futures

● Regulations and Technological Innovation

● Effects of Nuclear War

● Impacts of Telecommunications Technology

● Impacts of Applied Genetics

● Cost Effectiveness of Medical Technologies

● Potential for Advanced Air Transport

Three additional topics suggested by the priorities-determining

process have been started as internal methodological studies. These are

topics of broad interest to all OTA projects, and should influence the

style and scope of our work as well as be of substantial interest to our

congressional clients:

● Effects of Technology on Risks to Humankind

● Technology and Centralization /Decentralization

● Measures of Quality of Life as a Basis for Assessing Technological Choices.

This booklet is divided into two parts. The first part covers the

OTA Priorities, 1979, and includes a one-page description of each of

the 30 priority projects arranged in descending order of priority. The

second provides a list and brief descriptions of the active projects as of

January 1, 1979.

The OTA Priorities will be used as a guide during 1979 in selecting

projects for submittal by the Director to the Board for approval.

The priority-setting process will be ongoing. In the latter part of

1979 a new list will be developed for use in 1980. Your suggestions will

be welcome.

ii

RUSSELL W. PETERSON

Director
Contents

Page

OTA Priorities—1979 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . v

Brief descriptions of priority items . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1-30

Assessments in progress . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31

Brief descriptions of assessments in progress. . . . .. ..33-49

List of completed assessments .. .. .. .. .. .. ...(inside back cover)

. . . Ill
OTA Priorities—1979

(Ranked in order)

Description

on page

Impact of Technology on National Water Supply and

Demand. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Alternative Global Food Futures. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Health Promotion and Disease Prevention Technologies .

Technology and World Population . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Impact of Technology on Productivity of the Land. . . . . . .

Impacts of Technology on Productivity, Inflation, and

Employment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Technology and the Developing World—Meeting Basic

Human Needs. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Peace Technology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Impact of Microprocessing on Society . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Applications of Technology in Space. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Designing for Conservation of Materials. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Future of Military Equipment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Impact of Technology on the Movement of Goods. . . . . . .

Weather and Climate Technology. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Allocating the Electromagnetic Spectrum Globally. . . . . .

Implications of Increased Longevity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Controlled Thermonuclear Fusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Technology and Mental Health. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Technology and Education . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Prescription Drug Use . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Forest Resource Technologies. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Health Technologies andThird-World Diseases . . . . . . . . .

Electric Vehicles: Applications and impacts . . . . . . . . . . . .

R&D Priorities for U.S. Food Production . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Alternative Materials Technologies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Deep Ocean Minerals Development . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

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Energy Efficiency in industry . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27

Role of Technology in Meeting Housing Needs . . . . . . . . . 28

Ocean Waste Disposal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29

Technology and the Handicapped . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30

v
Priorities

IMPACT OF TECHNOLOGY ON NATIONAL WATER

SUPPLY AND DEMAND

Problem. Freshwater is a vital renewable national resource. Although

the Nation’s overall freshwater supply is more than adequate, its distribution

causes serious problems. Some areas get too much precipitation; others have

too little.

Arid regions often resort to such dangerous alternatives as pumping supplies from aquifers faster than they can be naturally replenished. Unfortunately, the legal and economic web that regulates most water supplies— even in

dry areas—often does not encourage the most efficient usage. Also, many individual States regulate water with an eye to their own needs—a practice which

contrasts with some effective regional management schemes.

Projected demands for water for coal gasification, liquefaction, and mining; for cooling towers; and for irrigation exceed the projected supply in some

States, Some alternative water supply technologies that merit study include

surface water development, such as impoundments; groundwater extraction;

and interchangeable ground and surface water systems. Others include conservation aimed at major water users, waste-water recycling, desalination, undersea aqueducts, and iceberg towing. All of these systems have social, economic,

or environmental impacts that must be assessed.

The effects of overuse of available water supplies need evaluation. Depletion of ground-water supplies, land subsidence, lowering of the water table,

and intrusion into aquifers by saltwater, minerals, salts, and sewage are all

recognized to be problems.

OTA Role. An initial OTA study would concentrate on analyses of

technology affecting future water supply and demand projections. It would

also provide Congress with information needed to evaluate alternatives to current Federal water programs, and would explore possibilities for better coordinating the use of the Nation’s freshwater supplies.

would also consider the following issues:

Possible trade-offs among water uses for energy manufacture, agriculture, and recreation.

Conservation plans, including possible Federal action, conservation

through pricing systems, recycling of water, and improved irrigation

techniques.

Water management, especially the roles of the Federal, State, and local

governments in managing water resources.

The development of a nationally consistent data bank.

Cost-sharing proposals among governments and private users that

might reduce water consumption or channel available supplies in appropriate directions.

The impact of Federal and Indian water rights on local water issues.
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Priorities (Continued)

ALTERNATIVE GLOBAL FOOD FUTURES

Problem. In the early 1960’s the world enjoyed substantial food reserves.

Carryover grain stocks primarily in the United States, amounted to about 95

days’ worth of global consumption. In addition, American farmers were paid

to hold out of production 50 million acres of cropland. By 1974, however,

reserve stocks had declined to merely 26 days and Government payments to

keep land idle had ceased. Although in the last 3 years grain stocks have again

risen, the planet had moved from an era of relative food abundance to one of

food scarcity.

Although improved weather conditions over the last 3 years have helped,

there is still serious concern that the present global food system will prove increasingly inadequate over the next two to three decades. Even in the best of

years with substantial reserves in some parts of the world, hundreds of millions of people who cannot pay for their food are malnourished. World population growth and rising energy costs are increasing the pressures on global

food production and delivery systems. Furthermore, climatologists point out

that the major increases in food production in recent decades have resulted in

large measure from unusually favorable climate, which history indicates is

unlikely to be sustained. Even the technologically advanced American farm is

feeling the pressure. Increases in agricultural production are leveling off. Additional energy no longer produces increased yield. Capital and labor costs,

along with increasingly scarce and expensive water, also point to a productivity plateau. This suggests that the world cannot continue to look to the United

States as a supplier of last resort. One estimate of future food requirements

asserts that in order to keep pace with population growth, developing countries will have to increase their food production by at least 4 percent per year

over the next quarter century; however, present production increases are well

below this.

OTA Role. The proposed assessment would examine the global food system in the context of a range of supply and demand projections. The three key

elements of any food system are production, marketing and distribution, and

consumption and nutrition. Affecting all of these, directly and indirectly, are

the policies of the respective governments. Analysis of these requires consideration of a number of variables. Production is determined by factors such

as the availability and quality of land, water, energy, labor, and capital;

marketing and distribution involve processing, wholesaling, and retailing

practices; a study of consumption must not only explore cultural preferences

and the nutritional value of food, but also reflect the fact that nutrition is tied

to work performance and output, population growth and family size, disease

resistance, health, and mental development.

The analysis of these variables should reveal where the greatest vulnerabilities in the system lie and what forms a breakdown might take. Technologies that can strengthen the various components of the system would be assessed. These scenarios, together with analyses of their likelihood, technological requirements, and the long- and short-term impacts of these technologies,

would provide Congress with the information necessary to develop and evaluate both domestic and foreign food-related policies.
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Priorities (Continued)

HEALTH PROMOTION AND DISEASE

PREVENTION TECHNOLOGIES

Problem. Major factors that determine health are environment, lifestyle,

biology, and health services. Health services alone cannot cure degenerative

and chronic diseases and injuries, our major killers. Great increases in health

care costs and the absence of commensurate improvements in health status

have heightened interest in health promotion and disease prevention technologies. Congress has been asked to fund a range of these technologies from control of environmental contaminants to health education. Little is known about

the widespread impacts of adopting these particular technologies in health, the

health care system, and society at large. Without such information, Congress

is unable to fully address many health-related problems.

OTA Role. The issues surrounding health promotion and disease prevention technologies include their effectiveness, costs, allocation, payment, and

long-term impacts on health, the health system, and society. One or more of

these issues will be addressed in specific assessments. The areas currently being

considered for in-depth examination are:

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Technology of carcinogenic risk assessment. Environmental agents are

involved in up to 60 percent of human cancers. Are current technologies adequate to identify and to quantify risks? What options exist for

improving risk assessment technologies?

Emerging health promotion technologies. The use of new technologies

outside of the traditional medical care system, such as meditation or

biofeedback, is increasing. Are these technologies effective and safe?

What are their costs?

Methods to evaluate social technologies for health promotion and disease prevention. Social technologies, such as obesity control programs,

promote lifestyle changes. What is the state of the art for evaluating

these technologies? Are present evaluation methods adequate to determine their effectiveness? What should be the Federal role in these efforts?

Preventive technologies in dental health: a case study. Dental or

periodontal diseases affect almost all Americans. Are the technologies

used to promote dental health effective? What are the costs and implications of different preventive technologies?

Smoking habits and implications of reduced smoking: a case study in

integrated policymaking. How effective are the strategies used to

reduce smoking? How can the impacts of reduced smoking on the tobacco industry be mitigated? Can an integrated Federal policy for

tobacco and its use be designed?

Federal roles in health promotion and disease prevention technologies.

What are current Federal activities that further or limit these technologies? What are potential activities? What are the broad implications of

alternative activities?
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Priorities (Continued)

TECHNOLOGY AND WORLD POPULATION

Problem. Modern medical and public health technologies have greatly

improved the quality of human life. However, a significant side effect is the

growth in human numbers that has resulted from the reduction in mortality

and increased life expectancy. A global population that by the time of Christ

had reached approximately 250 million and that took 16 more centuries to

double, has now reached 4 billion with the prospect of doubling again in 40

years. A growth rate of this magnitude has major adverse implications for the

global biosphere and for international economic and political stability. For the

less developed countries with the highest growth rates, the problems posed by

rapid population increase are particularly acute. Their economic development

goals are jeopardized by the need to divert resources to meet the requirements

of an expanding population and the increasing proportion of net consumers in

the society (particularly the very young and the unemployed).

OTA Role. The proposed study would assess the implications of rapid

population growth. Potential topics for inclusion are as follows:

. Basic demographic data. Has the rate of global population growth

begun to slacken? If so, why? Can this trend be expected to continue?

How can the successful programs best be replicated in other countries?

. Contraceptive technology. From a biomedical standpoint, what are the

comparative advantages and drawbacks of various contraceptive technologies in terms of safety and effectiveness? What are the prospects for

a significant improvement in contraceptive technologies?

. Fertility determinants. Is high fertility more a function of socioeconomic factors (e. g., the status of women) or ignorance of and lack of

access to contraceptive technologies?

● Impacts of population growth upon health care, economic development, and environmental quality. What is the nature of these relationships and the gaps in present knowledge concerning them?

● Population, technology, and international conflict. Can rapid population growth interact with technological innovation under some circumstances to produce international aggression and sizable migration

pressures?

● Population policy. Can government policy most effectively influence

fertility through socioeconomic development or through provision of

contraceptive services? Is there an optimal combination of those two

approaches ?

. Institutions. What is the best institutional arrangement within the U.S.

Government for formulating and administering an overseas population

program?
5

Priorities (Continued)

IMPACT OF TECHNOLOGY ON PRODUCTIVITY

OF THE LAND

Problem. There is increasing reason to believe that the primary productivity of American lands—croplands, wetlands, grasslands, and forests—are undergoing or are facing serious deterioration. Unless current

productivity trends are reversed, it is estimated that the United States

will be unable to meet its own agricultural needs through the next century. Further, environmental deterioration of the land will constrain U.S.

efforts in assisting developing countries provide for their fast-growing

populations’ basic human needs. The combined adverse effects of misapplied and noncoordinated technologies have led to the present conditions

of our land. Farmers, bowing to economic pressures for immediate maximum yields, commonly have resorted to strategies and procedures inappropriate to long-term sustenance of the land. In addition, the demands

of a highly technological urban society have forced the wholesale conversion of productive lands to airports, highways, strip mines, and areas of

general urban sprawl. Decision makers must understand the limits to the

land’s carrying capacity.

The social and economic benefits accruing from technological interventions in the areas of agriculture and land use are numerous. However, these gains may be reversed due to impact of inappropriate, shortterm agricultural practices and the indiscriminate alteration of the land’s

physical and biological systems. The debilitating effects of chemical fertilizer and of erosion upon the soil, the threats posed to water quality by

pollutants and by ill-conceived irrigation projects which lead to increased

salinity, the depletion of ground-water resources, and the conversion of

prime farmland and wetlands all are examples of the inadvertent destructive effects of common technologies.

OTA Role. What misapplied and noncoordinated technologies have

wrought, properly considered technological and land use practices may

repair. The development of integrated strategies by Federal, State, and

local governments, and the private sector are required to halt deterioration of our land’s productivity. The project will:

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assess the beneficial and adverse impacts of relevant current

technologies on sustained land productivity,

examine the quality of the present data base for forecasting rates

of change in land productivity,

present selected case studies showing how society is affected as

ecological systems of the land break down,

determine gaps in our knowledge base,

inventory and assess new technologies to provide for sustainable

land productivity, and

outline strategies for fostering sustainable land productivity in the

United States.
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Priorities (Continued)

IMPACTS OF TECHNOLOGY ON PRODUCTIVITY,

INFLATION, AND EMPLOYMENT

Problem. Inflation, lagging productivity, and unemployment are three

of the most critical socioeconomic problems facing the United States today.

Each of these problems has roots in technology as well as consequences for

technology.

For example: although the mass-production of automobiles made it possible to improve labor productivity, it also displaced labor as other modes of

transportation were used less. Further, the mass-produced automobile gave

rise to increased reliance on petroleum-based fuels and, eventually, on foreign

sources of petroleum. The recent price hikes in crude oil from abroad have

been a significant factor in our current inflation. Some observers suggest that

an inflation-weary workforce, whose paychecks buy less even when they rise,

may itself be at least one factor in our sluggish productivity gains. And dollars

that buy fewer goods and services also buy less research and capital equipment

for technological development.

The interrelationships between technology and our economic system, including the problems of inflation, lagging productivity, and unemployment,

are complex, critical, and little understood. As a result, technology policy is

made with little knowledge of its economic impacts, and economic policy is

made with little understanding or consideration of its impacts on technology.

A better understanding of the links between technology and the economy is essential to the design of public policies to improve the impacts of technology on

our economy.

OTA Role. An OTA study would explore the complex interrelationships

between technology and the economy—with particular emphasis on the impacts of technology on productivity, inflation, and employment.

Because so little information exists concerning the techno-economic

system—the set of connections between technology and the economy—the

first task of an OTA study would be to develop a practical model of that

system which shows the cause-and-effect connections between technology and

the economy. The study would then examine the various policy mechanisms

that might be employed to improve the impacts of technology on the

economy.

The study would address such issues as:

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Does the operation of the techno-economic system vary with different

tax climates and different patent policies?

What effects does the investment of different amounts of manpower

and resources in R&D have on the economy?

Do diverse sectors of the economy (steel, chemicals, services) employ

their technologies differently? If so, could case studies of specific industries suggest ways of improving employment or productivity in different sectors of the economy?

How does the decisionmaker or planner “get at” those parts of the

techno-economic system that serve as leverage points for policy

changes or improvements?

Can technology be employed to improve productivity in the growing

service sector?
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Priorities (Continued)

TECHNOLOGY AND THE DEVELOPING WORLD–

MEETING BASIC HUMAN NEEDS

Problem. As many as 1 billion inhabitants of the developing countries

live in abject poverty, their most fundamental needs–food, shelter, health,

clothing—unmet. Traditional foreign assistance strategies employed in these

countries have measured progress by aggregate growth, as reflected in gross

national product (GNP). However, it has become clear that, despite the efforts

of these programs and the rise in GNP in many developing countries, the economic plight of vast numbers of people has remained unaffected, or even

worsened. The “basic human needs” (BHN) approach is an alternative development strategy that concentrates resources on the attainment of a minimal

standard of living essential to life and dignity. The purpose of this study would

be to assess the ways in which technology can contribute to and implement a

BHN strategy.

A vast range of existing technologies—from the highly sophisticated to

the “intermediate” or “village Ievel’’—can help meet the basic human needs of

the poor, In the fields of agriculture and rural development, health, education,

shelter and clothing, energy, and population growth, processes as diverse as,

for instance, satellite telecommunication and the construction of simple sand

filters for water purification, are all relevant to the implementation of a BHN

strategy. As yet, however, there is no inventory of such technologies that both

covers the entire range of human needs—food, water, shelter, clothing, health

care, education, employment opportunities, and basic services—and considers

the spectrum of levels of technology appropriate to the provision of those

needs. The development of effective and internally consistent aid packages,

attractive to and answering the needs of individual countries, requires such an

inventory.

OTA Role. The proposed study would develop a comprehensive inventory of technologies for implementing an effective BHN strategy which respects the goals, leadership initiative, and self-reliance of the developing countries involved. The inventory would include both existing and prospective

technologies and identify areas where R&D seems to be required. Criteria for

selecting and evaluating technologies (factor costs, environmental and social

impacts, the local resource base, the availability of markets, etc. ) would be

identified and analyzed. Questions regarding methods for melding highly sophisticated and very simple technologies would be addressed. The compatibility between various technological approaches and U.S. foreign policy objectives would be considered.
Priorities (Continued)

PEACE TECHNOLOGY

Problem. An OTA study would examine a range of technologies that

might be used to monitor compliance with international agreements. These

technologies, by making the undetected evasion of agreements less feasible,

and/or by permitting dissemination to a worldwide audience of evidence of

compliance, would expand the range of workable and attainable arms control

measures, and would perhaps permit new types of stabilizing international

agreements. The study would review the feasibility of different approaches,

determine the most appropriate national and international institutions for utilizing the equipment, assess the kinds of agreements which might be made possible through the use of such equipment, and review priorities for supporting

research in the area. The strategies with which this equipment would be used

would be carefully examined. The devices may, for example, reduce the need

to demand “onsite” inspections of certain classes of arms limitation

agreements, and arrangements might be negotiated calling for onsite proof of

irregularities detected by the equipment. Techniques for escaping detection of

the equipment would be carefully examined.

OTA Role. Four major categories of technologies would be examined.

● International Verification Equipment. The study would evaluate prospects for developing equipment that could be used by an international

organization to monitor compliance with bilateral and multilateral

arms control agreements. The concept of an international verification

satellite would be one example.

● “Black Boxes. ” The study would examine the feasibility of developing

tamper-proof seismic, photographic, and other sensing equipment

which could be placed on territory subject to an arms control agreement.

● Unmanned observatories for monitoring borders and troop movements. Such equipment could be used to monitor agreements limiting

troop movements, maneuvers, and force sizes. They could also be used

to monitor disputed borders and demilitarized zones without moving

military personnel into sensitive areas.

. Nonproliferation Safeguards Technology. Technological innovations

and devices can help reduce the likelihood of a spread of nuclear

weapons by limiting access to materials and technologies which could

be used to produce nuclear weapons. These technologies include new

reactor designs (the “nonproliferative reactor”), alternate fuel cycles

(thorium), modifications to present fuel cycles, and safeguards technology. The latter includes advanced nuclear material accounting systems,

onsite containment and surveillance equipment, tamper-proof seals, external monitoring devices (atmospheric sniffers and satellite observation).
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Priorities (Continued)

IMPACT OF MICROPROCESSING ON SOCIETY

Problem. The advent of microprocessing technology–the so-called

“computer on a chip’ ’—has been heralded as an event comparable to the invention of the printing press. This technology not only fundamentally alters man’s

ability to organize and use information, but is making it possible to reliably

and inexpensively incorporate “intelligent” functions in a growing number of

products and devices used by man.

Yesterday’s trip to the moon depended on microprocessors; tomorrow’s

kitchen ranges and washing machines will be controlled by them. Potential applications for the microprocessor abound. While it is revolutionizing the computer industry, the microprocessor is central to the marriage of the communications and computer technologies, the root source of our transformation to

an information society. Few aspects of man’s activities will escape the influence of this robust new species of technology.

OTA Role. The pervasive use of microprocessors will have significant

and enduring consequences for the individual and for society. Some will be

beneficial; others may be adverse. The proposed study would assess the potential impacts of the microprocessing revolution on society and the policy alternatives for coping with that revolution. The study would address such interrelated issues as the implications of microprocessor technology for individual

rights, employment, and labor, international trade, and the functioning of

government and business. The potential contribution of this technology to the

communications and information industries, health and education, and banking and payments systems would also be assessed. This study would result in:

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A survey and forecast of microprocessing technology.

Identification of likely services and applications.

Examination of the social and economic issues.

Examination of the policy and regulatory issues.

Formulation of policy alternatives.

Assessment of the consequences of implementing each policy alternative.

In addition to the consideration of effects outside the information and

telecommunications sectors, this assessment would complement the ongoing

OTA studies of National Information Systems and the Impacts of Telecommunications Technologies by specifically focusing on microprocessing

technology.
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Priorities (Continued)

APPLICATIONS OF TECHNOLOGY IN SPACE

Problem. Decisions made over the next several years will set the course

of activities in the U.S. space program for decades to come. In the two decades

since the Nation placed its first satellite in orbit, the space program has been

the subject of vigorous debate concerning its goal and implementation, The

decision to pursue project Apollo focused policy attention and the Nation’s

resources on the specific goal of manned lunar exploration. But the effort to

achieve this goal deferred development of a comprehensive national space

policy for nearly two decades.

With the successful use of near-earth-orbital space, the proposed uses of

space are expanding rapidly—beginning with the development of increasingly

large and sophisticated space stations, moving to space industrialization, and

perhaps to space habitation. Space colonization, once a field of visionaries and

science fiction writers, now attracts scientists, who advocate the mining of the

moon and asteroids for raw materials.

The promise of space industrialization, however, is clouded by economic,

political, and social uncertainties and by equally perplexing questions about

the capabilities of technology to perform the tasks required. The space budget

will not be large enough to meet all the demands placed on it and choices will

have to be made. Space activities thus are both glamorous and uncertain, and

objective analysis is needed.

OTA Role. An OTA study would address such issues as:

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What should be the relative priorities of manned and unmanned missions? Is there a future potential for manned lunar, asteroidal, and

planetary exploration and exploitation?

Space-based manufacturing and/or energy production in space require

large-scale technologies, such as large orbiting spacecraft and manned

space operations. Will benefits of such activities be great enough to

justify the major investments required?

The United States currently has four, largely separate, space programs:

military, intelligence, civilian government, and civilian nongovernmental. What are the optimal relationships among them?

What balance can be struck between developing a space-based military

capability and seeking arms control agreements to prevent the

militarization of space?

Other nations are undertaking major space programs with scientific,

commercial, and military objectives. As-a result of these additional entries into space, what new international agreements might be required?

This listing of issues is intended to suggest the great variety of factors involved in future space policy decisions. It is far from exhaustive, but only suggests the complexity of public policy issues related to space activities.
11

Priorities (Continued)

DESIGNING FOR CONSERVATION OF MATERIALS

Problem. In the past, resource demands have paralleled population

growth, but new studies indicate that future resource needs will be more closely related to rates of urbanization and growth of the middle class. Both rates

are at least double the rate of population growth. Thus, it is expected that in

the future, escalating demands will be made upon the Earth’s resources to

satisfy a growing, urban, middle class. Designing for conservation can relieve

this expected growth in materials and energy demand.

There are many approaches to materials conservation. These have been

identified in an earlier OTA assessment, and three strategies stand out:

● Products would be designed so that they could be rebuilt or remanufactured.

● Use of renewable resources or more abundant resources could be encouraged in the design and construction of commercial buildings.

● Fewer products might be used, or products might be designed for multiple uses in transportation, residences, and institutions.

Materials conservation is not now a policy of the U.S. Government.

There are those who claim that government policies, in fact, promote waste.

Thus, the central issue is “to conserve or not to conserve. ” Conservation

would be a cost borne currently by society to gain future benefits. Critics

argue that revamping material usage or changing lifestyles is a tremendous

task to undertake for an uncertain future benefit. They claim that the current

market system will function adequately to employ new technologies or lower

cost substitutes—that conservation, in other words, will take place without

governmental interference. Others argue that this is not so; selection of a

material for action is the result of a short-term decision process with little or no

consideration of long-term consequences.

OTA Role. An OTA assessment of materials conservation would focus

on the

●

●

●

●

following questions:

Will materials conservation have a sufficiently positive impact on national growth and prosperity to warrant consideration as a national

goal?

If conservation is to be a national goal, should it apply to all materials

or should it be applied on a case-by-case basis according to the criticality or cost of the material?

If conservation is to be a national goal, what are the best methods of

achieving it? Information? R&D? Regulation? Investments?

For each implementation approach, what are the current costs? What

are the materials savings? What are the future derived benefits?

37-778 0 - 79 - 3
12

Priorities (Continued)

FUTURE OF MILITARY EQUIPMENT

Problem. There is need for a broad survey of the kinds of new military

technology likely to be developed during the next two decades and for a

systematic review of their potential impact on international stability, as well as

on the security of the United States and its allies. It is hoped that such a survey

could give early warning about technologies now in early stages of research.

The project would not examine items receiving or likely to receive major funding during the next 5 years.

OTA Role. Suggestions for systems to be reviewed by OTA would be

solicited from the Department of Defense and other organizations concerned

about

tempt

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

future military equipment. The review of each technology would atto answer the following kinds of questions:

What defensive measures could be taken against it; would the weapon

stimulate a major arms race?

Would it increase or decrease the likelihood that civilians would be injured by a conflict?

Would it increase or decrease the stability of the current “deterrent”

relationship?

Would it increase or decrease the amount of warning received before an

attack?

Would it increase or decrease the credibility of war with modern

weapons?

Would the weapon advantage an aggressor or a defender? Given geographic and other asymmetries, would it advantage the Western alliance or its adversaries?

What reaction from our allies is likely, what are the prospects for

transferring the technology, is the technology likely to proliferate outside the alliance?

What are the manpower and budgetary implications?
13

Priorities (Continued)

IMPACT OF TECHNOLOGY ON

MOVEMENT OF GOODS

Problem. The movement of goods by highway,

pipeline is a major element in the U.S. economy. In 1976,

THE

rail, air, water, and

over 8 percent of the

‘GNP resulted from the movement of goods. Distribution costs consume more

than 13 percent of the sales dollar for manufacturing industries. National

policy concerning the current goods movement system is in a state of significant transition, as is the development and use of technologies in that system. It

is anticipated that Congress will be considering several substantial changes to

current rail and truck regulation. The administration is expected to submit

legislation in both of these areas.

OTA Role. An OTA study would explore the two-way interaction between technology and Federal policy in goods movement. It would assess the

degree and manner in which Federal policy, especially regulatory policy, can

be expected to inhibit or promote the development and utilization of

technology. It would also be concerned with the ways in which technology

might change the future structure of the goods movement industries and their

operations and investments, and thus change the regulatory framework which

will be appropriate for such a structure. The study would address the following major issues:

Reducing Unnecessary Goods Movement

Intermodal Transfer

Transport Information and Control Technologies

Railroad Electrification

Transportation Rights of Way

—Railroad rehabilitation

—Truck size and dimension limits

Urban Goods Movement

The Impact of Regulation on Technology and the Impact of

Technology on Appropriate Regulatory Structures.
14

Priorities (Continued)

WEATHER AND CLIMATE TECHNOLOGY

Problem. In the winter of 1976-77, half the United States found itself suffering under record low temperatures while the other half waited for rainfall to

end a severe drought. This destructive combination was the consequence of a

temporary change in normal world weather patterns. Some experts believe

that within decades we will be able to accurately predict these changes,

possibly a year in advance. The implications of such a capability would be

considerable. Consider, for example, the impact on agriculture if farmers

knew what weather they would face a year in advance of planting a crop.

At the present time there is no consensus on any single forecasting technique. There is general agreement, though, that the global climate machine is

extremely complex and that the most crucial piece of the puzzle is the interaction between the atmosphere and the ocean. Researchers are presently

experimenting with a variety of forecasting tools.

The better known include:

● Quantitative computer models that simulate the atmosphere and which

some day may be used to predict global weather.

● Three-month forecasts based on links between surface temperatures in

the Pacific and changes in weather over North America.

● Analysis of long-term climate changes over the past several thousand

years. Study tools include tree rings, sea bed sediment, and polar ice

samples. Technologies range from satellite monitoring to carbon

dating.

OTA Role. An OTA study would:

●

●

●

●

●

Analyze the long-term implications of weather trends for food, energy

use, demographics, transportation, and foreign policy.

Explore ways of reducing man’s adverse impact on global weather and

climate.

Review assessments of Federal R&D and data collection in this area.

Assess present and prospective weather prediction technologies.

Assess present and prospective weather modification technologies and

the potential economic, social, and diplomatic implications of various

levels of weather modification capability.
15

Priorities (Continued)

ALLOCATING THE ELECTROMAGNETIC

SPECTRUM GLOBALLY

Problem. In September of 1979, delegates from the 154 member nations

of the International Telecommunications Union (ITU)—the UN agency concerned with the international use of the radiofrequency spectrum—will attend

the World Administrative Radio Conference (WARC) to review and revise the

International Radio Regulations which govern the use of the spectrum

throughout the world. This Conference, the first in 20 years with the power to

consider all uses of the spectrum, will set the basic framework for world use of

the spectrum for the rest of this century. Its results will guide the development

of national and international telecommunications systems into the next century.

The radiofrequency spectrum is a critical and limited resource whose use

must be coordinated on the global, regional, national, and local levels in order

to accommodate the many conflicting demands upon the spectrum and to prevent systems from interfering with each other.

At WARC 79, the developing nations will, for the first time, have an

organized majority of the votes in deciding how the uses of the spectrum are

allocated among nations. Third-World nations seek a “New World Information Order” which would redress the current imbalance in the control of information technology, systems, and resources between the developed and the

developing nations.

Under current rules, frequency assignments are made largely on a firstcome, first-served basis, which gives priority to the established and most

technically advanced users of the spectrum. The developed nations generally

favor this approach. The developing nations, on the other hand, favor a “fixed

allotment” or “equal access” approach which apportions “rights” or “shares”

to the spectrum among all nations whether or not they are, or will be, technically able to use their share. Through bloc voting in the ITU, the developing

nations have recently secured the adoption of “fixed allotment” plans for a few

bands of the spectrum. They will probably seek to extend that approach to the

allocation of additional bands of the specturm at the 1979 WARC.

OTA Role. An OTA study would explore the long-term implications and

impacts of the likely outcomes of WARC 79. The different allocation strategies

that may emerge from WARC 79 will affect the development of future technologies and systems in different ways and have varying economic, political, and

social consequences.
16

Priorities (Continued)

IMPLICATIONS OF INCREASED LONGEVITY

Problem. The number of older Americans is growing. In the last 25

years, the proportion of the total population 65 or older grew from less than 7

percent to more than 10 percent. Current population projections indicate that

by the year 2030 almost 20 percent of our population will be elderly.

Technological breakthroughs in the next 30 years could significantly increase American life expectancy through disease control. In addition, the

development of alternative technologies to control aging processes could extend lifespan itself. Because these technologies will primarily affect mortality

rates among the middle-aged and the old, the proportion of the elderly to the

total population could rise even more dramatically than anticipated.

Changing the size and age composition of the U.S. labor force will have a

substantial impact on the general economy. The ratio of active workers to

retired citizens is predicted to be only 3 to 1 by the year 2030. On the other

hand, the proportion of dependent children in the population will also decline.

The current trends indicate that during the next 100 years the dependency

ratio—the number of people under 20 and over 64 divided by the number from

20 to 64—will never be as high as it is today.

The elderly now constitute 10 percent of the population, but 25 percent of

the poor. Increasing numbers of the elderly will strain social service systems

and could lead to their eventual breakdown.

OTA Role. The proposed assessment would examine the following

issues:

. Technology prospects: The range of innovations in medical technology

that promise to increase human life.

* Technology development, use, and distribution, including national

policies on priorities for funding research among technologies that

could affect life expectancy; mechanisms for screening technologies to

identify and eliminate those which might have significant negative consequences; and means of distributing new technologies equitably

among the population.

● Economic implications of an aging society: retirement policies and their

consequences; alternatives for more flexible career patterns; the adequacy of existing private and public pension funds for meeting the

financial needs of the elderly and possible alternative mechanisms for

providing income maintenance.

● Implications of increased longevity for the health care system, housing,

transportation needs, and social and community services; projected

costs for each sector with the special needs of the elderly taken into account; and alternatives to the present organization of services to improve the quality of life for the aged.

* Alternative roles for the elderly in American society: programs designed to improve their abilities and resources, such as special education; the relationship of public policies to the role of the elderly in the

family, in the community, and in the political arena.
17

Priorities (Continued)

CONTROLLED THERMONUCLEAR FUSION

Problem. Currently the United States is spending $500 million per year

on research into controlled fusion, with the aim of building a power-producing

reactor by 2005. Although the potential of fusion is great, major questions

concerning cost, feasibility, and impacts remain. These indicate the need for a

thorough assessment of just what the world is buying by this investment in fusion R&D. The purpose of this assessment is to examine the potential of fusion

and the implications of a fusion economy.

Controlled fusion is a nuclear reaction by which hydrogen isotopes are

joined in a way that permits capture and conversion of the nuclear energy to

produce useful power, most probably electricity. The two major paths being

pursued are magnetic confinement and laser compression. The former, which

uses a magnetic field to contain the elements being heated to fusion conditions,

is likely to achieve scientific demonstration before the latter, which uses laser

power to achieve fusion. Beyond the scientific challenge, there remains the

considerable engineering task of building a power reactor using either method

and of solving the many potential environmental and safety problems. The

current best guess is that a commercial power reactor using magnetic confinement can be built by 2005 to 2010.

OTA Role. An OTA study would examine such major issues as the

following:

● Fusion appears to be less hazardous than present nuclear fission

technologies, but formidable environmental and safety problems exist

and will require careful, continued review.

● Successful attainment of fusion could provide the world with an

unlimited source of energy. That achievement would be without precedent and would present society with a set of benefits and possible problems for which we are unprepared. The utility of fusion energy, of

course, would be dependent upon the full cost of the process to be

developed.

● Manmade fusion would be a centralized very high-technology energy

source that could raise a number of problems about control of the

energy economy and compatibility with the dispersed technologies

based on solar energy, the natural fusion energy.
18

Priorities (Continued)

TECHNOLOGY AND MENTAL HEALTH

Problem. Mental health and mental disorders now constitute a major

health issue in the United States. Mental health care is needed by 10 to 15 percent of the population; yet only 2% percent receive such care annually. Still,

mental health care costs $17 billion per year. This cost represents almost 15

percent of the total cost of health care and more than l percent of the gross national product.

Physical, psychosocial, and social mental health technologies meet many

health care needs, thereby improving the quality of life for many Americans.

Demands for such technologies will increase in the future for two main

reasons: an increase in elderly persons who have prolonged chronic health

conditions likely to be accompanied by emotional stress, and an increasing acceptance by the general public of mental health technologies.

Federal, State, and local government responsibility for the provision of

mental health services has grown since the early part of this century, particularly with the passage of Medicare and Medicaid. If national health insurance is enacted and if the recommendations of the President’s Commission

on Mental Health are implemented, the Federal role in mental health care will

increase substantially.

Such an expansion necessitates a comprehensive assessment of the efficacy, safety, and cost-effectiveness of technologies designed both to promote

mental health and treat mental disorders. The increase in use of mental health

technologies by persons who do not perceive themselves as mentally ill should

be assessed. Policy decisions also need to be made concerning the use of and

reimbursement for mental health technologies used as preventive services.

OTA Role. The proposed study would assess the efficacy and safety of

mental health care technologies as well as the social, legal, and ethical questions raised by their use. Examples of such issues include:

Protection of consumers from ineffective and/or harmful technologies.

Definition of the boundaries between mental, physical, and environmental health, education, and welfare and other social services.

Protection of privacy with respect to seeking or refusing treatment, and

with respect to data collection and use.

Access to services for all who want or need them.

Delineation of the diversity of service that can be publicly supported.

The potential of mental health care as an alternative to drug abuse,

alcoholism, and violence.
19

Priorities (Continued)

TECHNOLOGY AND EDUCATION

Problem. At least since World War II, a perpetual hope and a recurrent

disappointment has been the idea that technology can enhance preschool

elementary, secondary, and higher education. Technology-assisted education

is also seen as a means of outreach to populations at large to meet knowledge

needs and to enhance the quality of life. A review of what is known about the

successes and failures in this area and an assessment of future opportunities for

the employment of technology are particularly timely. The lessons of experience should be brought to bear on the new opportunities presented by

cable, microwave, communications satellites, information packeting, video

tapes, discs, and many other new developments.

Education, using such technologies, may move from a parochial, local

level to a national, continental, and global level. The potential U.S. role as a

unilateral, bilateral, and international participant in these new technological

possibilities should be assessed.

Technology will affect not only the medium of education, but also the

message. Science and technology as a major cultural subject, rivaling history

and English in importance, is basic to a healthy democracy.

OTA Role. An OTA assessment would examine a number of broad

topics concerning the relationship between technology and education. These

include the following:

Ž Technology as a means of improving the quality and availability of

education in the formal and informal education systems.

● The implications of gIobal educational technology for U.S. educational

and foreign policy.

● The cost-benefit calculus for technological innovation in education.

● The role of institutional factors in the successful introduction of new

educational technologies.

Ž The effect of new technologies of education on students’ ability to acquire basic skills (e.g., reading) and personality traits (e.g., persistence).
Priorities (Continued)

PRESCRIPTION DRUG USE

Problem. The use of prescription drugs in the United States has increased

approximately 400 percent since 1950. About 10 percent of the Nation’s health

care dollar is currently spent on drugs. Americans purchase more than 2

billion prescriptions every year at an estimated cost of $10 to $13 billion. On

the average, each outpatient physician visit generates 1.6 dispensed prescriptions. The elderly acquire nearly three times as many outpatient prescriptions

as do younger individuals.

Used judiciously, many prescription drugs provide cost-effective treatment that helps people overcome or tolerate their medical problems. Unfortunately, as much as 25 percent of prescription drug use may be ineffective,

unnecessary, or even harmful. Adverse drug reactions, many of which are predictable, may kill as “few” as 24,000 or as many as 130,000 people annually.

Several factors influence the use of prescription drugs, including promotion by the pharmaceutical industry, prescribing habits of physicians, and

public demand for drugs. These three factors and others may influence drug

use more than objective analysis of a drug’s particular ability to correct or

ameliorate a medical problem.

Most drug use in hospitals is paid for through public and private health

insurance. Conversely, most outpatient drug use is paid for solely by the individual. In 1974, Americans purchased about 1.7 billion outpatient prescriptions at an estimated cost of $8 billion. According to a 1973 survey by the National Center for Health Statistics, about 75 percent of these prescriptions were

paid for solely by consumers. In 1973, private health insurance companies

spent an estimated $528 million for outpatient drug use. In 1974, Federal and

State governments spent about $753 million for the same purpose.

OTA Role. Each year, Congress is asked to allocate more Federal funds

to expand health care benefits, including the use of outpatient prescription

drugs. In order to help Congress assess the potential implications of expanding

drug coverage under publicly financed health insurance, the proposed OTA

analysis would address the following items:

Specific issues include selection of drug products, selection of health insurance beneficiaries, new applications of technology to finance and administer a drug benefit program, and the development of drug use monitoring

systems.
21

Priorities (Continued)

FOREST RESOURCE TECHNOLOGIES

Problem. Forests are dynamic systems that help support the life-sustaining capacity of the global environment. They are living factories supplying

renewable sources of energy and materials, generating food and oxygen

through photosynthesis and ensuring continued productivity of land and

water by filtering degradable wastes, storing CO2

, regulating water flow, and

protecting against erosion and flooding. Although outwardly impressive and

apparently enduring, forests are in fact frail ecosystems. It takes from 20 to

100 years for a tree to grow to maturity. Policy decisions made today will affect the availability of forest resources in the 21st century.

Forests cover nearly one-third of the Earth’s land area, yet trends in forest

exploitation have resulted in a reduction of global forest area of 15 percent

since 1963. The global demand for wood and forest products is estimated to be

increasing at a yearly rate of 3 percent. Expected increases in population and

economic growth suggest a large increase in the demand for forest products. In

the developing countries, 90 percent of wood consumption is for fuelwood.

Existing forested areas are rapidly being depleted through overcutting,

overgrazing, and clearing for crop and pasture lands, Failure to reforest

depleted areas has led to erosion, flooding, siltation, and in some cases, desertification of once fertile land.

The United States is blessed with abundant forest resources; one-third of

the land area is forested. Commercial forests, those capable of producing harvestable volumes of wood, compose 66 percent of U.S. forest lands. Fifty-nine

percent of commercial forest lands are held by private, nonindustrial owners,

13 percent by the forest industry, 22 percent by the Federal Government, and

the remaining 6 percent by State and local governments.

OTA Role. A study of the future of forests and forest resources would examine the increasing pressures on the forests of the world from population

growth and economic development, assess the interaction of the elements of

forest growth and harvesting and wood processing and uses, and analyze the

impacts of technology on all parts of the system, It would concentrate on three

principal issue areas:

●

●

●

Forest management technologies and methods in the United States:

Current trends and alternative future policies for domestic forest

resources.

Current international trends in supply and demand for wood: Implications for world forest resources and the global environment.

Present and potential uses of renewable forest products for materials of

construction, chemical feedstocks, and energy including technological

innovations which will influence those uses.
22

Priorities (Continued)

HEALTH TECHNOLOGIES AND THIRD-WORLD DISEASES

Problem. The developing countries contain more than half the world’s

people, and more than one quarter of those people live in absolute poverty.

Lacking a decent diet and clean water, they are, in overwhelming numbers,

easy prey to a whole host of infectious diseases. Infant mortality rates are extremely high; the health status of adults is poor. The rapid population growth

in the Third World exacerbates the problems of malnutrition, unsanitary environments, mortality, and morbidity.

People are one of the Third World’s most basic and abundant resources.

To improve the health of those people is to help build the base for successful

and sustainable economic development and eventual population control in

that World.

Many of the technologies required to control the impacts and incidence of

a wide range of Third-World diseases and disorders already exist. For example, the greatest need in most developing countries is for simple primary and

preventive health care, proper nutrition, and environmental sanitation. There

are, in addition, a variety of technologies for treating and preventing such

widespread Third-World diseases as tuberculosis, neonatal tetanus, measles,

and Yaws. Yet, Third-World countries are currently unable to realize the

potential benefits of a whole array of technologies including many pharmaceuticals and chemotherapies which, according to the World Health Organization

(WHO), are “too cumbersome, too crude, and too costly for effective widespread use.” WHO stresses the need for the development of more effective,

nontoxic chemotherapies that can be supplied at a lower cost.

OTA Role. The proposed OTA assessment of Third-World diseases

would examine three major areas: (1) research and development in health technologies; (2) the application of those technologies; and (3) the delivery of those

technologies. Major issues in each of those areas include:

Research and development:

● an inventory of the most common Third-World diseases and available

technologies for dealing with them;

● the adequacy of U.S. resources, public and private, now devoted to

research into Third-World diseases;

● the value and need for expanding research and development efforts and

the specific directions such research might take.

The application of health technologies:

● the present and potential applications of health technologies;

. missed opportunities to eradicate and/or mitigate the adverse effects of

common Third-World diseases;

● the effects of fragmented responsibility in international health

assistance, including research and development and technological

transfer and applications.

The delivery of health technologies:

* the relative appropriateness of investing in capital-intensive medical

care and sophisticated physician services located in urban centers or in

primary and preventive health care centers using regional and community level workers;

● the possible roles the United States might play in helping developing

countries build suitable health care infrastructures.
23

Priorities (Continued)

ELECTRIC VEHICLES: APPLICATIONS AND IMPACTS

Problem. Recent concern for petroleum conservation and clean air has

led to a renewed interest in the electric vehicle (EV) for personal and commercial transportation. The EV can use nonpetroleum fuel and emits virtually no

local pollutants. However, the present-day EV does not compare favorably

with the petroleum-powered automobile on a cost or performance basis. Considerable research is being directed at improving the characteristics of the electric vehicle. Travel surveys indicate that much of the Nation’s daily transportation needs could be met by electric vehicles, although market projections do

not indicate high usage rates of EVs even by 2000. Difficult technical, economic, and institutional problems must be overcome for large-scale EV commercialization to be successful, and the impacts of widespread application

have not been comprehensively examined.

In 1976, the Congress enacted—over an executive veto—a law requiring

that 7,500 to 10,000 EVs be put into operation by the mid-1980’s for

demonstration purposes. Various pieces of legislation designed to encourage

the development and use of EVs have since been introduced.

OTA Role. The proposed study would explore and assess the potential

impacts of an increasingly widespread use of EVs over the next 40 years. The

study would assume that, by the year 2020, EVs would displace some 50 to 75

percent of petroleum-powered vehicles for both passenger and commercial

use. Different “transition scenarios” likely to lead to that high level of displacement would be developed. The energy, environmental, economic, social, and

institutional impacts of these different transition scenarios, and of the

widespread use of EVs by 2020, would be determined and described.
24— ______ _

Priorities (Continued)

R&D PRIORITIES FOR U.S. FOOD PRODUCTION

Problem. The agriculture industry is by far the largest in the United

States. Agricultural products are one of the largest items in U.S. exports and,

in times of crop failure elsewhere in the world, the ability of the United States

to produce more food than we need has meant the difference between starvation and survival for millions of people. U.S. agriculture is also one of the

great success stories of American technology—as is, in large part, the Green

Revolution, which has spurred such enormous advances in food production in

some areas of the developing world. Yet rising fertilizer and fuel costs have

largely brought the Green Revolution to a standstill and the increase in yieldper-acre of American agriculture has, in recent years, begun to flatten out.

The basic question is whether and how the productivity of American

agriculture—whose products and whose technology are already so critical to

world food supply—can continue to grow at adequate rates over the long term

in the face of a large and increasing array of constraints and costs. Some scientists, for example, question whether the soil can remain productive with everincreasing yields removing larger and larger amounts of soil nutrients, and

with the application of increasing amounts of pesticides and fertilizers which

may ultimately cause drastic adverse effects on soil microorganisms and the

productivity of the soil itself. The loss of prime farmland to urbanization and

other uses; the growing shortages of water in some agricultural areas of the

country; the rising cost and relative scarcity of fuels to support high-energy

agriculture; the need for U.S. agricultural exports to help offset rising costs for

imported fuel and materials as the export of U.S. manufactured goods continues to decline; the prospect of increased reliance on the United States to

meet rapidly growing food demand around the world—these are a few of the

factors that combine to underscore the need for ensuring the long-term productivity of American agriculture.

OTA Role. An OTA study would assess R&D priorities for U.S.

agriculture in terms of the growing constraints upon productivity and the

technological possibilities for easing these constraints and ensuring long-term

productivity. The study would evaluate such technological “functions” as soil

fertility and management, energy, breeding, water resource management, and

harvesting in the various commodity sectors in relation to their present and

future importance to U.S. food production, their present constraints, their interrelationships, their research requirements and the likely success of such

research.
25

Priorities (Continued)

ALTERNATIVE MATERIALS TECHNOLOGIES

Problem. Increasingly, at many points along the materials cycle, the

present system of supply, use, and disposal of materials must be balanced

against other important public concerns, such as occupational health and safety, energy conservation, environmental quality, industrial innovation, and inflation.

Nevertheless, the production and exchange of material products remain

central to the U.S. industrial economy. There is concern in some quarters

about the availability of a continued expanding supply of resources to meet

future demands.

These and other concerns reflect three fundamental changes that have occurred in the U.S. and world economies during the last three decades: 1)

Resources have become potentially scarce rather than plentiful. 2) The environment is no longer regarded as an infinite sink for wastes, but is recognized instead as our vital life-support system. 3) American technology and industry are no longer preeminent, but are increasingly subject to sharp competition from other countries.

Alternative materials technologies may provide significant opportunities

to help resolve these conflicts. Candidate technologies might include: aerial

and satellite remote-sensing technology; deep-drilling technology; geostatistical supply modeling and computer mapping technologies; product remanufacturing; and materials substitution.

OTA Role. An OTA study would assess selected alternative materials

technologies, and the policies necessary to implement them from the perspective of environment, energy, health and safety, and inflation as well as

materials availability and conservation.
26 — . ——— .

Priorities (Continued)

DEEP OCEAN MINERALS DEVELOPMENT

Problem. A quarter of the world’s oil production now comes from offshore fields—about double the seabed production of a decade ago. In addition,

there is increasing interest in the undersea mining of such hard minerals as

manganese nodules.

Undersea petroleum drilling is a rapidly changing field. In 1972, the

record water depth for drilling reached 1,200 feet. Now, with the development

of advanced platform positioning, special well control systems for deeper

water, and other newly designed equipment, the maximum water depth has

been extended to almost 3,500 feet.

Because the petroleum industry is operating at increasing ocean depths

and in a more hostile environment in its search for gas and oil, the possibility

of serious and unanticipated technological problems becomes more likely.

Solutions to some of these problems may be transferable to the undersea exploitation of hard minerals such as manganese nodules, which may be a major

future resource. The economics of ocean drilling and mining merit study, as do

the jurisdictional problems that might arise from operations in international

waters. The output of this study should be helpful to ongoing Law of the Sea

negotiations.

OTA Role. An OTA study of deep ocean minerals development would

contain four major elements:

●

●

●

●

Analysis of the current drilling and mining technology, and an identification of future research and engineering requirements.

Estimation of the total potential recoverable resources from the deep

seabed—both regionally and globally.

Identification of the economic and environmental impacts of deep

ocean mining, including special deep-water drilling and mining costs.

Analysis of the legal and institutional questions associated with ocean

mining, including those covering jurisdiction in international waters

and existing and proposed treaty obligations.
27

Priorities (Continued)

Problem.

ENERGY EFFICIENCY IN INDUSTRY

The transition from oil and gas to direct coal, electricity, and

direct solar energy over the next several decades will be accompanied by-an increase in energy costs. This in turn will necessitate substantial efforts by industry to hold down those costs. Options range from massive substitution of

labor for energy to installations of entire new technological processes that use

the coming energy forms efficiently.

Industry is the largest single sector in the energy problem. It uses close to

40 percent of the Nation’s energy supply. Currently, substantial efforts are

underway in industry to increase energy efficiency because of rising prices.

These efforts, however, concentrate on existing technologies and fuels. Less effort is going into research on new processes that could most economically use

the energy sources that some day must replace oil and natural gas. Such

research might include substitution of electrochemical for thermochemical

processes and development of chemical or physical methods that could effectively use direct solar energy. The alternative to finding new technologies to

combat high energy costs will probably be large-scale substitution of labor for

energy.

OTA Role. An OTA

creasing energy efficiency

economy, and identify the

the new energy sources.

study would examine the range of options for inin industry and their impacts on society and the

policy options for encouraging the efficient use of

The proposed study would explore such issues as:

●

●

●

●

●

The potential impact of new efficient process technologies on productivity and employment.

The potential contribution of more efficient energy use to environmental quality.

The role of Government incentives in stimulating needed technological

innovation.

The problem of capital availability for installation of new technologies.

The role of oil and gas pricing in stimulating the development of more

energy-efficient equipment and processes.
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Priorities (Continued)

ROLE OF TECHNOLOGY IN MEETING

HOUSING NEEDS

Problem. As a result of the widening gap between family incomes and

the cost of housing, substantial segments of the population cannot afford to

buy a home. A substantial body of research exists to support the contention

that only a major shift toward capital-intensive processes can bring the costs of

housing back to levels middle-income families can afford, and that these

technological innovations could have other benefits relating to land acquisition patterns, finance costs, and operating and maintenance costs. However,

many contend that the regulation of the building industry through antiquated,

capricious, and voluminous building codes is discouraging the needed technological innovation that could help control costs.

The traditional role of the Federal Government has been as guarantor of

loans and provider of subsidies, leaving the construction of houses to private

industry except in the cases of the very poor, the aged, and the military. The

support of research within the Department of Housing and Urban Development has largely been targeted away from technology-related research.

OTA Role. The proposed study would focus on those technologies most

likely to contribute to improved future performance of the housing industry.

These include the creation of new materials and composites; the use of

minicomputers in housing design, engineering, and management; new rehabilitation technologies; advanced computational techniques for risk analysis and

new design; and increasing knowledge of human responses to housing. Other

related issues would include:

● The need to reduce the cost of housing and all of its subsystems: land

acquisition, land development, financing, and maintenance.

Ž The need to reduce overall energy consumption and dependence on

fossil fuels.

● The need to remove unnecessary regulations that discourage innovation.

● The need for new training programs to redress the continuing lack of

skilled labor.

● Factory-built homes versus onsite construction.
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Priorities (Continued)

OCEAN WASTE DISPOSAL

Problem. Nobody really knows how waste affects the ocean. Some experts think current volumes of pollution are very dangerous. Other specialists

disagree, claiming that the seas are robust and elastic enough to absorb large

amounts of discharge. Given proper handling, the ocean may be the most

reasonable repository for some types of wastes. But we still need to know

which wastes the ocean could accommodate and in what amounts. Also, the

least destructive disposal methods should be identified.

Waste reaches the sea in many ways. For example, some cities and private

companies barge material out into the Atlantic. Others pump waste to the sea

via long outfall pipes. The ocean receives chemical pollution through natural

runoff from farmlands. Sewage pumped into waterways finds its way into the

ocean. Waste is also generated every time a channel is deepened. Spoil, from

dredging operations, is the most voluminous of waste materials and probably

the most benign. Industrial waste consists of anything left over after a

manufacturing or agricultural process. Federal laws have substantially reduced

the deliberate discharge of much of this, but accidents still occur. Municipal

waste, probably the most important source of ocean pollution, is a mixture of

raw city sewage, treated sewage and residual sludge.

OTA Role. An OTA study of the use and abuse of the oceans through

waste disposal would examine such questions as:

● What are the gaps in present knowledge? How and when might those

gaps be closed?

● Are we running out of safe disposal sites? OTA would attempt an

estimate of total “holding capacity” of both the ocean and land to gauge

whether or when we might face a crisis.

• Should any or all methods of ocean waste disposal be eliminated? We

would assess the competing technologies and their relative costs.

• What further action should Congress consider? OTA would identify

areas that might benefit from further congressional review, analyze

technologies most likely to relieve ocean pollution, and identify the

risks that accompany the various waste disposal alternatives.
30— —

Priorities (Continued)

TECHNOLOGY AND THE HANDICAPPED

Problem. Within the last decade, several developments suggest major

changes in national policy toward the handicapped and new life-enhancing

roles for technology to play in implementing that policy.

Understanding of the origins of handicaps and the scope of the situation is

increasing. Improved standards of public health and data collection reveal

problems whose scope we were unaware of. According to one estimate, 8 percent of school children are handicapped. Another estimate is that 2.5 percent

of the U.S. population are severely disabled. With the steady increase in

average lifespan, the impairments of aging will be a growing social concern.

Developments in medicine, health, epidemiology, electronics, and materials

are creating a new base. of knowledge which should have a major effect in

enhancing the quality of the lives of the handicapped by preventing, correcting, relieving, or stopping the worsening of their conditions.

There is an extremely limited private sector market base for developing

new technologies for the handicapped, and public institutions have been conspicuously unsuccessful in developing an effective, well-structured program

for dealing with this constellation of social needs and major human opportunities. Yet this problem area offers a major opportunity for technology to lift a

burden from a large sector of our society.

The handicapped are increasingly active in civil and equal rights movements. Recent legislation, notably Public Law 94-142, is creating widesweeping, public obligations for the education of handicapped children. In addition, there are major issues involving transportation, health care delivery,

architecture, design, housing—all areas of major governmental action and expenditures. These developments will undoubtedly generate a great demand for

preventive, corrective, and rehabilitative social and health care measures. The

movement towards bringing the handicapped into the mainstream of public

education will ultimately lead to similar “mainstreaming” in occupational sectors. The movement of the handicapped into the work force will also be facilitated by the growth of telecommunications technology and the expansion of

information industries.

OTA Role. The proposed project would first determine the present and

future scope of the demography of the handicapped, the nature and severity of

their limitations, and the scientific and technological potential for preventing,

alleviating, or correcting handicapping conditions. The study would then explore and assess the broad impacts on and implications for society of the technologies required to serve the handicapped—including the impacts on the life

of the handicapped and the costs and benefits to society.
Assessments in Progress

Description

on page

Energy, Materials, anti Global Security

Alternative Energy Futures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Home Energy Use— Conservation Issues . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

The Direct Use of Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Solar Power Satellites . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Energy From Biological Processes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Effects of Nuclear War. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Foreign Policy lmplications of Global Trends in Energy

Supply and Demand. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Technology Transfer. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ........ . . .

The lmpact of Technology on Competitiveness of U.S.

industries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Analysis of Laws Governing Access Across Federal

Lands for Minerals Development . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Management of Fuel and Nonfuel MineraIs on Federal Land

Materials and Energy From Waste . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Conservation of Metals to Reduce Losses in the Materials

Cycle . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ...9.............00.

Federal Coal Development Rights . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Oil Shale—A Case Study of Recovery of Minerals From

Subeconomic Resources. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Opportunities and Vulnerabilities of U.S. Dependence on

Imported Nonfuel Minerals . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Health and Life Sciences

Cost-Effectiveness of Medical Technologies . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Pneumococcal Vaccine . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Computer Technology and the Quality of Physician

Services . . . . . . . . ........9..=.. . . . . . . ........= . . . . .

Health Data Systems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Drugs and Chemicals in Livestock Feeding . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Open Shelf-Life-Dating of Food. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Pest Management Strategies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Environmental Contaminants in fold . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

impacts of Applied Genetics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Science, information, and Transportation

Siting of Coastal Energy Facilities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Renewable Energy From Oceans . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Disposal of Nuclear Waste . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Technology for Local Development . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Technological lnnovation and Health, Safety, and

Environmental Regulations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

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Assessments in Progress (Continued)

The National Laboratories Assessment. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Societal impacts of lnformation Systems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Telecommunication Systems Assessment. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Railroad Safety: Canadian Comparison . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

The Future Use and Characteristics of the Automobile

Transportation System. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

lmpact of Advanced Air Transport Technology . . . . . . . . . . . .

lmpact of Advanced Group Rapid Transit Technology. . . . . .

Natural Hazards . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Approaches to Risk Assessment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Measures of Quality of Life as a Basis for Assessing

Technological Choices . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Non-Ionizing Radiation Hazards . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

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Assessments in Progress

ENERGY, MATERIALS, AND GLOBAL SECURITY

ENERGY

Alternative Energy Futures

During 1978, considerable congressional interest was expressed in a comprehensive study of the Nation’s energy future. In this study, OTA is providing a comprehensive picture of supply and demand patterns for energy in

the future and their effects on society, the economy, and the environment.

OTA is also analyzing various transition paths from our present dependence

on dwindling fossil fuels to a system fueled by renewable energy sources. In

addition, the study is providing the basis for responsible formulation of public

policy by identifying and analyzing the critical issues that must be resolved for

such policy. Specifically, OTA is examining various energy futures scenarios

and their impacts. These include three possible levels of energy demand, and

conditions such as intensive electrification, high use of synthetic fuels, energy

self-sufficiency, or high solar use. The study is establishing the requirements

needed to meet energy demand for each of the various scenarios in a general

way and then determining the energy efficiencies and resources needed to meet

those demand structures. Also, the economic, environmental, and social effects, as well as the technical requirements of meeting each demand structure,

are being analyzed.

Within the framework of the Alternative Energy Futures study, OTA is

assessing the economic as well as the international issues involved in importing

LNG (liquefied natural gas). The study is exploring such issues as availability,

costs, potential markets for LNG and the consequences of Government actions, including incremental pricing, standards for price and other contractual

arrangements with supplying countries, and indirect incentives.

Home Energy Use—Conservation Issues

Before the 1973 oil embargo and the last two unusually severe winters,

little attention was paid to future energy shortages. Since then, several Federal

programs and regulatory initiatives have been designed to reduce residential

energy consumption and increase the efficiency of home energy use. In this

assessment, OTA is studying the trends of energy use in residential buildings,

the role of energy prices in encouraging conservation, and the opportunities

for promoting energy savings in Federal housing programs. The effectiveness

of Federal, State, and local conservation programs as well as the status of

research and development in energy conservation and opportunities for technological advances are also being examined. In addition, the study will identify impacts of reducing residential energy use.

The Direct Use of Coal

Coal is expected to be the foundation of the Nation’s energy

cause it is the only domestic fuel whose use can be greatly expanded.

future beHowever,

33
Assessments in Progress (Continued)

the impacts of the anticipated growth in coal use are, in many respects, uncertain. In this study, OTA is seeking a broad understanding of how coal is used,

what role it could play in the future, and what impacts will result. OTA is also

examining how coal production can be increased, and the impacts of an increase; and how negative impacts can be reduced and the effects that would

have on production. Specifically, the study is examining such issues as: (1)

present and future mining, combustion and air pollution control technologies;

(2) labor issues such as miner health and safety, and labor-management relations; (3) factors affecting coal production and use (availability, regulations,

environmental and transportation restrictions); (4) environmental impacts of

combustion (air, water, and land); and (5) present Federal policy towards coal.

Solar Power Satellites

Considerable interest has been shown in the feasibility of obtaining solar

energy by using satellites to convert solar radiation to microwaves and beam

them to Earth for conversion to electricity. In this assessment, OTA is identifying issues that need clarification and resolution. These issues include the cost

of constructing these satellites, their reliability, the affects of microwave

beams on life forms and the ionosphere, the institutional arrangements between the utilities and the Government, the potential vulnerability of satellites

to hostile actions, and the degree to which solar power satellites would lead to

increased economic centralization. In addition, OTA is assisting Congress in

oversight of programs already underway. OTA is also comparing solar satellite systems with other inexhaustible energy systems.

Energy From Biological Processes

In the search for renewable and non-polluting sources of energy, many experts see a potential for obtaining increasing amounts of energy from plants

and plant wastes (commonly called biomass). In this assessment, OTA is analyzing the potential for and impacts of biomass. The study will examine various conversion processes such as direct combustion, pyrolysis, and distillation, analyze policies that could accelerate commercialization, and examine

what research and development is still needed. OTA is also exploring the range

of biomass fuels—from crop and wood residues to forests and crops grown

specifically for energy. In addition, OTA is looking at end uses of biomass-derived fuels or chemicals. Emphasis will be given to the possible uses of liquids

and the technical, economic, and systems trade-offs between possible uses.

NATIONAL SECURITY

Effects of Nuclear War

At the request of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, OTA has undertaken a study of the effects of nuclear war. The study is examining the effects which nuclear attacks of various sizes might have on the civilian population, economies, and societies of the United States and of the Soviet Union,

and will in addition discuss the long-term effects of a major nuclear war on
. 35

Assessments in Progress (Continued)

areas elsewhere in the world. Because a report was requested within a few

months, OTA is pulling together existing knowledge rather than undertaking

original research, but the study will be unusual in its effort to examine the entire range of effects—direct and indirect, physical and social, short term and

long term—rather than confining itself to consequences which lend themselves

to rapid quantitative treatment.

Nuclear war is not a comfortable subject, but the fact that nuclear war is

possible lies at the foundation of U.S. national security policies. The OTA

study will not pretend to predict what an actual nuclear war would be like, but

rather it will give a sense of what kinds of consequences should be expected,

and of the nature of the uncertainties which dominate serious consideration of

such a war. A careful explanation of the extent of these uncertainties, and the

reasons why many of them cannot be resolved, is just as important as a summary of what we do know about the effects of nuclear weapons.

TECHNOLOGY AND WORLD TRADE

Foreign Policy Implications of Global Trends in

Energy Supply and Demand

This assessment will examine the linkage between the global trends in

energy supply and demand, the impact of major supply and demand technologies on those trends, and the achievement of U.S. foreign policy objectives. It

will identify and analyze areas in the world where energy shortages or high

prices are likely to create political and economic difficulties during the next

three decades, the nature of those difficulties, the impact of these developments on the economic and security interests of the United States, and the

policy options and technological innovations available to mitigate negative

impacts here and abroad.

Requested by the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations, the assessment

is proceeding in three basic stages. The first is a review of existing information

concerning present world energy resources, energy demand, and programs to

increase supply and moderate demand now under way in key areas

throughout the world.

The second stage will comprise a series of credible scenarios regarding the

price and availability of depletable energy resources during the next 30 years.

These scenarios illustrate, among other things, the potential impact of aggressive energy conservation policies, unexpected discoveries or failures to discover new fossil fuel resources, and possible policy decisions by major petroleum exporting nations.

The third stage will analyze the scenarios to illustrate their impact on the

economic welfare of the United States and other nations. The assessment will

highlight impacts which could weaken various national economies, seriously

threaten the aspirations of developing nations, and jeopardize U.S. security in-
Assessments in Progress (Continued)

terests. U.S. foreign policy and policy responses, including U.S. foreign

assistance in energy technologies, will be analyzed.

Technology Transfer

At the request of the House Committee on International Relations, and

the Senate Commerce Committee, OTA has undertaken a project designed to

identify the opportunities and obstacles posed by technology transfer, analyze

a range of appropriate policy responses, and assess their likely consequences.

The project is divided into three distinct components: technology transfer

between the United States and the Communist world; the impact of technology transfer between the United States and the developing countries; and

transfer between the United States and other OECD countries.

These studies will examine the current state of U.S. technology, the U.S.

role in international trade in technology, technology transfer and its relation

to innovation and productivity, the role of technology transfer in the maintenance of national security, and the viability of technology transfer as a

political lever or tool of diplomacy. A case study approach will be used.

Because of congressional interest, the study of East-West transfer is being

undertaken first. The study will examine techniques for evaluating the impact

of Western technology on the economies of Communist countries, and provide

a basis for weighing economic costs and benefits along with political and national security interests which will be affected by this trade. The study will

evaluate the efficacy of technology transfer as an instrument of foreign policy,

and assessing the value of such transfers as a means of improving East-West

trade.

The Impact of Technology on Competitiveness of U.S. Industries

A growing number of people have become concerned recently that U.S.

industries are losing, or have already lost, their position of technical leadership

in critical areas. Further, there is fear that this change will adversely affect

their ability to compete in world markets. At the request of several congressional committees, OTA is examining this problem by looking carefully at

four important industries: steel, electronics, chemicals, and aircraft. These industries were chosen to illustrate a wide spectrum of issues and industry capabilities. They range from the steel industry, which is a mature, capitalintensive industry where technology changes slowly, to the electronics industry, which is very volatile and critically sensitive to a constantly changing

technology.

The steel industry is being examined first because of congressional priorities. OTA is analyzing the role played by technology in the fate of the U.S.

steel industry and in steel manufacture around the world. This assessment will

examine the kinds of technologies now available worldwide and attempt to anticipate those that may be available during the next few decades.

For the purposes of this study, the steel industry is not being treated as a

single entity. Rather, three major elements of the industry are being treated
37

Assessments in Progress (Continued)

separately: integrated carbon steelmaking, non-integrated carbon steelmaking

(including “mini-mills”), and alloy/specialty companies. Each category

presents unique opportunities and problems for study.

The study is examining ways in which research, development, and demonstrations of new steelmaking techniques are now conducted in the United

States and by our major competitors. It is also exploring the incentives and

barriers to the introduction of new technologies. The impact of a variety of

Federal programs and regulations (including labor regulations, environmental

controls, and health and safety regulations) are also being explored. A broad

range of possible legislative solutions to problems identified will be suggested

and their impact assessed.

MATERIALS

Analysis of Laws Governing Access Across Federal Lands for

Minerals Development

During 1978, Congress deliberated over the assignment of Federal lands in

Alaska to different conservation systems. At issue was how much Federal land

would be set aside in parks, wildlife refuges, national forests, and wild and

scenic rivers, and how much would be available for development of natural

resources.

To lay a basis for congressional consideration of the issues involved,

OTA undertook an assessment of the major environmental, land planning,

and Federal land management laws applicable to Alaskan lands. The final

report is being published for use by the 96th Congress.

Management of Fuel and Nonfuel Minerals on Federal Land

This assessment, requested by OTA Board member Senator Stevens of

Alaska, analyzes the Federal land management laws and practices that govern

physical access to and exploitation of minerals on Federal onshore land, exclusive of Indian land, and the interaction of the Federal laws and practices

with State and local controls and payment requirements. The analysis seeks

not only to identify problems, but also to indicate possible approaches to a

more efficient and equitable system.

The assessment focuses on the important role Federal onshore land plays

in the provision of both mineral and nonmineral resources to the people of the

United States. It describes the mineral development process and the role of the

various participants in the process, and outlines the history and main elements

of the Federal laws governing mineral development on Federal onshore land.

Specific issues and options are presented in each of three major areas: (1) the

coordination of mineral development activities undertaken by different individuals and firms; (2) the coordination of mineral development activities

with nonmineral activities and values; and (3) the coordination of regulatory

and payment requirements imposed on mineral development activities by different agencies of the Federal Government and by the different levels of

government (Federal, State, and local) in our Federal system.
38 ——

Assessments in Progress (Continued)

Materials and Energy From Waste

This study examines the potential for, and barriers to, recovering and

recycling resources from municipal solid waste. The final report will identify

and analyze both the policy options for realizing the potential and the likely

impacts of implementing such options. Requested by the Senate Committee on

Commerce and the House Committee on Science and Technology, the assessment considers: (1) markets for such recovered goods as paper, aluminum, ferrous metals, glass, and energy; (2) source separation for materials and energy

recovery; (3) the economic and technical feasibility of using centralized facilities for recovering resources; (4) economic policies to stimulate the demand

for recovered resources; (5) the effect of freight rates on the movement and sale

of recovered goods; and (6) mandator y deposits on beverage containers.

Conservation of Metals to Reduce Losses in the Materials Cycle

This assessment examines the materials cycle from mining through product disposal to identify and quantify materials wastes and losses and to suggest

techniques for reducing these losses. Various conservation objectives are being

defined and the applicability of each conservation approach is being evaluated

in terms of those objectives. The final report will evaluate public and private

policy options for encouraging conservation as a means for coping with shortterm cyclical problems in materials supply and demand which may develop in

the future.

Federal Coal Development Rights

OTA has been directed by Congress to conduct an analysis of all outstanding Federal coal development rights, which include over 500 leases and

200 preference-right lease applications in effect in August 1976. This assessment will analyze all mining activities on Federal leases, determine the present

and potential value of the outstanding coal development rights, estimate revenues to the Federal Government, and examine the feasibility of using deep

mining technology in leased areas.

Oil Shale—A Case Study of Recovery of Minerals From

Subeconomic Resources

Rich oil shale deposits, containing approximately 1 trillion barrels of shale

oil that could be ultimately recovered, are located within a relatively small

area in Colorado, Utah, and Wyoming. However, various technological, environmental, and economic uncertainties associated with oil shale processing

must be resolved before shale oil can make a significant contribution to the

Nation’s energy supply mix. Accordingly, at the request of the Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources, OTA is investigating the issues relevant to oil shale development, including an analysis of the technological,

social, environmental, economic, institutional, political, and other impacts—

both beneficial and harmful—that may accompany the evolution of an oil

shale industry. The final report will identify and analyze legislative policy options related to the development and use of oil shale technology.
39

Assessments in Progress (Continued)

Opportunities and Vulnerabilities of U.S. Dependence on

Imported Nonfuel Minerals

Requested by the House Committee on Science and Technology, and endorsed by other House and Senate committees, this study is to examine the

future availability of selected mineral imports, the role of these commodities in

the domestic and international economies, and the public policy implications

of U.S. reliance on foreign sources of supply. Unresolved situations arising

from dependence on imported minerals will also be explored.

HEALTH AND LIFE SCIENCES

HEALTH

Cost-Effectiveness of Medical Technologies

Health technologies have contributed substantially to rapidly rising

health care costs. Cost-effectiveness analysis is seen as a way to help allocate

health resources more rationally. Such analysis compares the costs of alternate

ways of attaining specified goals or effects. There is growing pressure to make

cost-effectiveness a prime consideration in deciding whether to adopt particular medical technologies.

This assessment, originating from OTA’s priority list and requested by

the Senate Committees on Finance and Human Resources is examining the

potential effects of using cost-effectiveness techniques. The study is evaluating: (1) the feasibility of employing cost-effectiveness analyses of several

specific medical technologies as case studies; (2) the need for using cost-effectiveness techniques; (3) the social costs and benefits, the potential ethical, economic, political, and legal aspects; and (4) the feasibility of expanded use.

Pneumococcal Vaccine

During the past 15 years, the number of pharmaceutical companies developing and producing vaccines in the United States has dropped significantly.

During this same period the Federal Government has increased its financial

commitment to vaccine research and development. Some authorities maintain

that the Federal Government should further increase vaccine R&D (and

possibly even go into production), because of the private sector’s growing

disinterest.

Using the development of pneumococcal vaccine as a case study, this

background report seeks to identify selected issues in three general areas: vaccine R&D in both the public and private sectors; the cost-effectiveness of

preventing diseases through the use of vaccines; and factors that affect the use

of preventive health technologies in general and vaccines in particular.
40

Assessments in Progress (Continued)

This report is also analyzing the cost-effectiveness of using pneumococcal

vaccine as a preventive health measure in selected segments of the population.

Further, this report is identifying various factors that affect the use of vaccines, such as consumer awareness of vaccine benefits and risks, vaccine

availability and cost, incentives to administer vaccines, liability for harm

resulting from vaccination, and Government efforts to promote vaccine use.

All of these factors need to be considered by public health planners when

designing programs, either to prevent or to help treat disease.

Computer Technology and the Quality of Physician Services

Physician training involves the accumulation of knowledge and the application of that knowledge in the care of patients. OTA is examining how various computer technologies might be used to assess and/or improve this process, which includes medical school selection, undergraduate and graduate

medical education, and clinical practice.

Computers can assist in and manage instructional programs, aid in testing, perform diagnostic, prognostic, and therapeutic functions, and manage

large amounts of data. Computers will soon provide large data banks on student characteristics and performance, on physician and institutional performance in patient care, on the status of individual patients, and on the health

status of various population groups.

The growth of large health- and medical-related computer banks will raise

complex technical, political, and social questions involving the control, access,

security, and privacy of such data.

Health Data Systems

The Federal Government lacks a coherent policy on gathering, analyzing,

and using statistical information on people’s health and the use of medical care

resources.

Because of the lack of attention given to the numerous statistical activities

of various Federal health programs, OTA undertook a study to determine

both the extent to which Congress requires the collection of health statistics

and the degree to which such activities are coordinated. This assessment has

been divided into two parts. One study is examining all statutory authorities

that require agencies within the Department of Health, Education, and

Welfare to collect health data. The other is focusing on the lack of coordination among various Federal agencies that collect health data and outlines alternatives for integrating health data collection and use.

FOOD

Drugs and Chemicals in Livestock Feeding

Farmers and ranchers have widely adopted the use of various drugs and

chemicals as additives in livestock and poultry feed. Used to protect animal
—-—. — 41

Assessments in Progress (Continued)

health and promote growth, this development is an integral part of the recent

technological revolution in the production of meat, milk, and eggs. Other

essential components of that revolution include sanitation, immunization,

mechanization, and improved nutrition and breeding of livestock.

There has been a growing concern about the contribution the use of antibiotics in feed has on the development of drug-resistant bacteria as well as

recognition that some of these drugs cause cancer in laboratory animals.

At the request of the Senate Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition, and

Forestry, OTA is assessing the risks, real or potential, to human health from

continued use of these drugs. Also being addressed are the benefits, especially

the economic contributions and impact on increased food supplies, of these

drugs. The effect on food prices of banning use of the drugs as feed additives is

being assessed. A number of options ranging from continued use to complete

withdrawal of the drugs, along with the risks and benefits of each, are being

developed.

Open Shelf-Life Dating of Food

The purpose of using an open date on packages is to inform consumers

about the shelf life of the product. Federal regulations have been established

for other areas of information disclosure, such as nutrition and ingredient

labeling and food grades. However, open dating has remained a voluntary

program at the Federal level. Thus, there is no uniform or universally accepted

open-dating system for food in the United States. In parts of the country, some

food packages now have an open date in one form or another, whereas in

other areas food packages lack an open date altogether.

Requested by the Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation, this project is assessing the present status of open dating and its projected benefits and costs. It also is analyzing alternative techniques, criteria,

systems, and enforcement methods for open dating and their impact on the

food industry, consumers, and the economy.

Pest Management Strategies

In the past three decades, U.S. agriculture has become increasingly dependent on chemical pesticides to control weeds, insects, and diseases that

destroy crops. Continued reliance on these chemicals alone now appears impossible. Heightened concern over their environmental effects, coupled with

increased pest resistance and secondary pest outbreaks, severely limits the effective pesticides available to farmers. While these trends are found most fully

in the United States, the problem is worldwide. If farmers are to meet the

growing demand for food, new means for controlling pests are needed.

Requested by the Senate Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition, and

Forestry, this assessment has three major objectives. The first is to assess the

potential development and impact of pest management strategies in major

regions of the United States over the next 10 to 15 years. The second is to evaluate Federal policies that constrain the development of technologies and strate-
Assessments in Progress (Continued)

gies to manage pests. The third objective is to assess the potential adaptation

and impact of U.S. advances in pest management strategies on crop protection

in developing countries.

Environmental Contaminants in Food

In the past decade, various foods have become contaminated by identified

toxic substances in the environment. Polybrominated biphenyl (PBB) contaminated livestock feed and products in Michigan, and kepone in the James River

of Virginia contaminated fish and other seafoods. This type of food contamination has led to actual or potential human health risks and has caused

severe economic setbacks to the food producers whose products have been

contaminated.

Requested by the House Committee on Interstate and Foreign Commerce,

this assessment is addressing issues derived from the contamination of food by

organic chemicals, metals and their complexes, and radioactive substances.

The two major areas addressed by this assessment are tolerance and monitoring. The section dealing with tolerance will analyze present and alternative

methodologies for determining acceptable limits and estimating economic impact. The section dealing with monitoring will analyze existing and future

means for detecting environmental contaminants in food products, predicting

substances that could potentially contaminate food, identifying and analyzing

the components of a monitoring system, and evaluating both Federal and State

capabilities for monitoring food.

GENETICS AND WORLD POPULATION

Impacts of Applied Genetics

“Applied genetics” refers to those technologies which can influence the

biological characteristics inherited by man, animals, and plants. Recent advances in knowledge may greatly expand our capability to affect genetic characteristics to improve the quality of life. However, risks of inadvertent harm

stem from these advances, many of which have not been fully examined for

such risks.

To date, the Federal Government has focused on only one technology,

recombinant DNA, and one issue, containment of new and possibly harmful

organisms. Little attention has been given to other technologies, such as cell

fusion, or to other issues, such as costs and benefits, and the social and ethical

questions, raised by these new technologies.

Thus, issues requiring attention include:

● What are some key opportunities for society through applied genetics?

● What are some of the potential problems?

● Is Government regulation of research on genetics desirable considering

the dichotomy between freedom of scientific inquiry versus social

values and public risks?
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Assessments in Progress (Continued)

If regulation is desirable, who should exercise it and how extensive

should it be?

Who should own new life forms that have commercial value and could

benefit mankind? (This involves issues of public rights versus property

rights and incentives to innovations. )

Arising out of OTA’s initial priority-setting process, this assessment will

focus on the use of applied genetics technologies in agriculture and commercial /industrial processes and the prevention and treatment of inherited human

defects.

SCIENCE, INFORMATION, AND TRANSPORTATION

OCEANS

Siting of Coastal Energy Facilities

In the short term at least, meeting the U.S. demand for energy will require

new generating facilities, and this inevitably raises the question of where these

facilities should be. This study is intended to identify broad issues associated

with the siting of new powerplants in the coastal States of the United States.

The study concentrates on coastal States partly because this is where the

sharpest increases in population and energy demand are expected and partly

because of the new Federal Coastal Zone Management Act, which should influence siting decisions.

Over 200 interviews have been conducted with key people including

Federal and State officials, businessmen, utility and energy company officials,

labor representatives, and spokesmen for environmental and other special interest groups. Questions were designed to provide an energy profile of selected

States, with an emphasis on determining the influence of the various governmental units and whether some of these units are at odds with others.

Renewable Energy From the Oceans

The rush to find energy alternatives to petroleum has led many people to

consider the potential of the world’s oceans. Currently, the most discussed

ocean energy extraction method is Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion

(OTEC), which aims to use the temperature difference between deep cold

ocean waters and warmer surface waters to produce power. OTA has already

issued an assessment of OTEC technology.

That assessment prompted a logical question: what are the current prospects for other known renewable ocean energy systems which do not receive

the support and level of Department of Energy R&D funding enjoyed by

OTEC?
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Assessments in Progress (Continued)

These “other” renewable ocean energy sources include ocean winds, tides,

currents, waves, and salinity gradients.

OTA is commissioning studies of each of these candidate energy systems

to pinpoint the status of the research efforts. Tidal technology is proven

already and in place in France, where the French Government has constructed

an electricity-generating plant.

Disposal of Nuclear Waste

Although we are more than three decades into the nuclear age, the evergrowing volume of high-level waste from weapons manufacture and powerplant operations is almost all still in “temporary” storage. Permanent isolation

of this radioactive waste is essential since exposure to some of its elements can

pose a threat to human life for over 1 million years.

OTA is now assessing the state of the art of disposal of high-level radioactive wastes generated by nuclear powerplants. Also to be investigated are the

social and environmental aspects of the issue, which are sometimes not addressed in more narrowly focused studies.

The study is exploring such questions as:

●

●

●

What steps are involved in selecting, evaluating and licensing potential

waste repository sites?

What is involved in developing and managing a full-scale waste

disposal system?

What is the role of State and local governments in management of

nuclear wastes?

What additional research and development work is needed to demonstrate the ability to safely dispose of nuclear waste?

NATIONAL R&D PRIORITIES AND POLICIES

Technology for Local Development

Technologies now being developed, such as land disposal of waste water,

distributed residential energy systems, and housing rehabilitation techniques,

provide an alternative and possibly more effective approach to community

and regional development. These technologies stress self-help, the use of

renewable resources, and are compatible with local capital and environmental

requirements. Such technologies have often been characterized as “appropriate

technologies. ” This project will examine several prototype technologies in

order to assess the extent to which appropriate technologies can contribute to

attaining domestic urban and rural community goals. The project will assess

the feasibility and potential impacts of these technologies, as well as the institutional structures necessary to develop and apply them. It will also identify

and develop policy options for the Congress which deal with proposals for

Federal program coordination, financing R&D, and other relevant means of
45

Assessments in Progress (Continued)

enhancing beneficial impacts and minimizing adverse impacts of technologies

for local development.

Technological Innovation and Health, Safety, and

Environmental Regulation

Regulatory policies to minimize the risks posed by technology to health,

safety, and the environment have become the focus of increasing controversy.

The purpose of this project is to evaluate alternative regulatory policies with

regard to their effectiveness and efficiency in ensuring that the rate and direction of technological change are compatible both with health, safety, and environmental goals and with the goal of maintaining economic vitality. Achieving this objective requires understanding how regulatory policies, when integrated with technical, market and financial considerations at the corporate

level, influence private investments in innovation. This assessment will frame

the issues, and examine some specific cases in order to begin developing a

knowledge base that will be useful for forming policy decisions in this area.

The National Laboratories Assessment

The purpose of the national laboratories assessment is to evaluate the role

and performance of federally funded research and development centers and

civil service laboratories. The assessment addresses three aspects of these

laboratories: 1) their present institutional structure; 2) the role they play in the

overall scientific endeavor of the country; and 3) ways in which they can be

directed toward the solution of national problems. Intergovernmental access,

quality control, and the capacity for the labs to serve an early warning function in national problem areas round out the assessment.

TELECOMMUNICATION AND INFORMATION SYSTEMS

Societal Impacts of Information Systems

Through three broadly representative case studies—the National Crime

Information Center, emerging electronic message systems, and electronic

funds transfer systems —OTA is assessing the impacts of national information

systems on society. The study includes multiple services such as criminal

justice, mail, research, education and marketing, and includes personal services such as banking, shopping, and library services. National and international issues and policies are being examined. Particular attention is being

given to issues of privacy and civil liberties and alternative policies to encourage use of information technologies while limiting or controlling adverse

societal impacts of such systems.

Telecommunication Systems Assessment

The Telecommunication Systems study is examining the impacts of

emerging telecommunication technologies on society. Areas being studied in-
46

Assessments in Progress (Continued)

elude: economic, social, legal, and policy issues; national and international industry structure; governmental uses and regulation of telecommunication

systems; and potential biological and environmental effects. Also included are

major international issues such as: the timing of new undersea cable and transoceanic satellite facilities; emerging impediments to transborder data flow; and

satellite broadcasting impacts.

TRANSPORTATION

Railroad Safety: Canadian Comparison

At the request of the House Commerce Committee, OTA is conducting a

detailed comparison between railroad safety conditions in the United States

and Canada. The OTA comparative analysis identifies the similarities and differences between the United States and Canadian rail systems and safety practices. Findings thus far indicate that the differences in rail-related fatality rates

are primarily a function of the differences in size and exposure levels of each

nation’s population. The study also suggests that the different approaches to

safety in the two countries are a function of the size and structure of the Canadian rail system and the structure and size of the government entities with responsibility for safety. In addition, the economic deregulation of Canadian

railroads, which occurred in 1967, created a more favorable economic climate

for the rail industry, which, in turn, provides a better environment for safety

improvements.

,

The Future Use and Characteristics of the Automobile

Transportation System

The automobile is the predominant form of personal transportation in the

United States. Over 85 percent of all households now own at least one automobile and more than 90 percent of the passenger miles traveled each year are

by private automobile.

Along with the social and economic benefits conferred by the automobile

have come certain problems. The future supply of petroleum is uncertain. Air

pollution is a major urban problem. Death and injury on streets and highways

continue to mount. Traffic congestion strangles movement in cities. Roadways, parking lots, and automobile-related facilities take up land and contribute to urban sprawl. Maintaining the present automobile and highway system and meeting the future personal transportation needs of the country will

call for large capital investments.

Requested by the Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation, this assessment addresses changes in the future use and characteristics of the automobile transportation system, potential technological developments and their anticipated effects to the year 2000 and beyond, and factors

that could influence the evolution of the system.
47

Assessments in Progress (Continued)

Impacts of Advanced Air Transport Technology

The civil aviation industry in the United States has dominated the free

world aircraft market for the past 40 years largely because of the technological

base provided by NASA and DOD R&D, and by an industry oriented toward

technological development. This superiority is now being challenged by consortiums in Western Europe, backed by their respective governments, with developments such as the A-300 Airbus.

Potential new developments in aviation should permit the U.S. industry

to continue its contribution to the Nation’s economy, but at issue is the question of the extent of Federal support of civil aviation technology, particularly

where long-term and high-risk R&D projects are concerned.

Requested by the House Committee on Science and Technology and the

Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation, this assessment addresses the potential technological developments and their impacts in

the field of advanced transport aircraft for passengers and cargo over the next

15 to 30 years. Included in the study are advanced supersonic transport, commuter, cargo, hypersonic, V/STOL, and energy efficient subsonic aircraft,

lighter-than-air vehicles, and general aviation. The study examines the potential economic, environmental, energy, safety, social, and political implications

of the introduction, or the nonintroduction, of such aircraft. The study is intended to provide Congress with information needed to determine the appropriate level of Federal support.

Impacts of Advanced Group Rapid Transit Technology

Advanced Group Rapid Transit (AGRT) is a public transportation system

concept embodying fully automated small vehicles operating at short headways on exclusive guideways. The system is being developed by the Urban

Mass Transportation Administration. OTA is conducting a preliminary analysis at the request of the House Appropriations Committee. At issue is the cost

of the program and its potential for enhancing urban mobility and ameliorating other problems associated with urban transportation.

EXPLORATORY AND PLANNING

Natural Hazards

At the request of the House Committee on Banking, Finance, and Urban

Affairs, the Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs, and

the Senate Committee on Appropriations, OTA initiated a planning study on
Assessments in Progress (Continued)

natural hazards and their social, economic, environmental, and political consequences. Staff studies and workshops identified and clarified issues and

trends, and offered some policy options. An operational and policy framework based on the lifecycle of a natural hazard has been developed.

A five-volume preliminary analysis to be completed in January 1979 will

include:

●

●

●

●

●

Confronting Nature: A Preliminary Analysis of U.S. Policy Needs

Related to Natural Hazards

Issues and Options in Flood Hazards Management

Criteria for Evaluating the President’s Reorganization Plan for

Emergency Preparedness and Response

Criteria for Evaluating the Implementation Plan Required by the Earthquake Hazards Reduction Act of 1977

Disasters in the Developing Countries: Lessons Applicable to U.S.

Domestic Preparedness.

Approaches to Risk Assessment

Currently, inadequate understanding of the parameters of risk prevents

governments from being able to plan and execute comprehensive activities to

deal with the full range of risks resulting from both natural and manmade

causes. OTA is undertaking a comprehensive review and analysis of risks to

which humankind is exposed on an individual, regional, national, international, and global basis. A systematic inventory of the scope, scale, intensity,

numbers of people affected, and trends with regard to technological risks will

be provided as a basis for improving public policy dealing with risk.

This comparative analysis of a large number of risks will develop systematic information with regard to each risk and attempt to develop a time

history, including the rates of change of risks over an interval useful to public

policy.

The project will directly serve OTA’s internal needs for a more systematic

approach to risk. It is also planned to provide a framework for improved congressional interpretation and deliberation on risks and hazards.

Measures of Quality of Life as a Basis for Assessing

Technological Choices

Growing dissatisfaction with such economic measures as GNP (gross national product) are based on the fact that they do not and cannot fully reflect

prevailing social conditions. GNP counts market-priced goods and services

but disregards activities outside the market and ignores the reasons for a transaction. Thus, GNP includes as positive measures the costs of dealing with systems breakdowns, waste disposal, repair and maintenance—despite the fact

that these are negative symptoms with regard to quality of life. New measures

are needed to deal with life quality, attitudes, aspirations, goals, and satisfactions. Various branches of the Federal Government recognize this need for a
49

Assessments in Progress (Continued)

more adequate expression of human impacts and conditions and have begun

delineating approaches such as social accounting, social indicators, etc. The

U.N. and the OECD have also initiated similar investigations, realizing the absolute necessity of measures other than economic to determine real development in the Third World. To date, however, no consensus exists on 1) what

should be measured and how, and 2) the framework by which the meaning of

the indicators can be presented in a useful way.

The overall goal of this project is to explore the application of the quality

of life concept to technology policymaking by concentrating on the following:

● An analysis of current efforts by government agencies, academia, and

the private sector to develop various social indicators and methods of

social accounting.

● An evaluation of strengths and weaknesses of current indices and

measurement category gaps to result in the development of a new index

for quality of life to reflect the interconnection of various human activities and new conceptions of value, such as time vs. money, pain vs.

death, the work/play ratio needed for psychic health.

● Evaluation of alternative methods for data display of the results of

quality of life indexing to ensure utilization by those who require the information.

● Estimation of the impact on technologically related decisionmaking of

the existence of good quality of life data; evaluation of ways in which

the Congress can both foster this development and utilize it in preparing legislation.

Non-Ionizing Radiation Hazards

In response to a request of the House Committee on Interstate and Foreign

Commerce, OTA is conducting a preliminary anaysis of the issues associated

with microwave and other non-ionizing radiation hazards. The study is considering the hazards as well as the benefits associated with present and potential uses of the whole range of non-ionizing radiation, including those parts

associated with high-tension powerlines, laser beams, and all radiofrequency

radiation.

The preliminary analysis seeks to explore the principal public policy

issues confronting the Congress in this area and identify the technological factors which give rise to them. It considers the kinds of technical and nontechnical information most likely to be needed in order to identify policy options and the consequences of pursuing one or another. This analysis, based on

recent reports and interviews, also aims to identify relevant statutes, responsible authorities, existing standards, and centers of governmental and

nongovernmental activity and analysis, and indicate some of their limitations.
Completed Assessments

Application of Solar Technology to Today’s Energy Needs

A Technology Assessment of Coal Slurry Pipelines

Enhanced Oli Recovery Potential in the United States

Gas Potential From Devonian Shales of the Appalachian Basin

Analysis of the Proposed National Energy Pian

Nuclear Proliferation and Safeguards

A Review of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s Environmental

Research Outlook—1976=80

Comparative Analysis of the 1976 ERDA Plan and Program

An Analysis of the ERDA Plan and Program

An Analysis identifying issues in the Fiscal Year 1976 ERDA Budget

Nutrition Research Alternatives

Organizing and Financing Basic Research to increase Food Production

Perspectives on Federal Retail Food Grading

Food information Systems

Emerging Food Marketing Technologies: A Preliminary Analysis

Assessing the Efficacy and Safety of Medical Technologies

Policy implications of the Computed Tomography (CT) Scanner

Policy Implications of Medical Information Systems

Cancer Testing Technology and Saccharin

Development of Medical Technology: Opportunity for Assessment

Drug Bioequivalence

Engineering implications of Chronic Materials Scarcity

An Assessment of information System Capabilities Required to Support U.S.

Materials Decisions

An Assessment of Alternative Economic Stockpiling Policies

Renewable Ocean Energy Sources—Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion

Transportation of Liquefied Natural Gas

Establishing a 200=Mile Fisheries Zone

Coastal Effects of Offshore Energy Systems

Oil Transportation by Tankers: An Analysis of Marine Pollution and Safety

Measures

An Analysis of the Feasibility of Separating Exploration From Production of

Oil and Gas on the OCS

Government Involvement in the Innovation Process

impacts of a Department of Education on Federal Science and Technology

The Role of Demonstrations in Federal R&D Policy

Applications of R&D in the Civil Sector

An Evaluation of Railroad Safety

Automatic Train Control in Rail Rapid Transit

Energy, the Economy, and Mass Transit

A Review of Nationail Railroad issues

A Review of Alternative Approaches to Federal Funding of Rail Rehabilitation

The Financial Viability of ConRail

Automated Guideway Transit: An Assessment of Personal Rapid Transit and

Other New Systems

Technology Assessment in Business and Government

NOTE: A list of publications is available by writing to the OTA Public Affairs Office,

Washington, D.C. 20510. Please furnish a return address label with your request.
JANUARY 1979