## Topics

-  Agriculture    -  Explaining Analytical Methods 
-  Budget    -  Accuracy of Projections 
  -  Budget Concepts and Process 
  -  Budget Options 
  -  Explaining Analytical Methods 
  -  Federal Credit Programs 
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  -  Methods for Analyzing the Economic Effects of Fiscal Policy Changes 
  -  Methods for Analyzing the Uncertainty of Economic and Budget Projections 
  -  Outlook for the Budget and the Economy 
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  -  Methods for Baseline Economic Projections 
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# Outlook for the Budget and the Economy

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CBO's *Budget and Economic Outlook*, typically produced in January each year and updated in August, includes an economic forecast and projections of spending and revenues under current law—known as baseline projections—over the next 10 years. CBO also updates its budget projections each spring in conjunction with its analysis of the President's budgetary proposals. By showing outcomes if current laws generally remained in place, the baseline projections provide the Congress with a benchmark against which to measure the effects of proposed changes in spending and tax laws. CBO also analyzes the long-term budget outlook.

#### QUICK LINKS

                    - 10-YEAR BUDGET PROJECTIONS
                    - 10-YEAR ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS
                    - LONG-TERM BUDGET PROJECTIONS
                    - HISTORICAL BUDGET DATA

#### BUDGET PROJECTIONS FOR FY 2024

(As of June 18, 2024)

| OUTLAYS | $6.8 Trillion

REVENUES

$4.9 Trillion

DEFICIT

$1.9 Trillion

DEBT HELD BY THE PUBLIC (End of Fiscal Year)

$28.2 Trillion
ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR CY 2024
(As of June 18, 2024)

REAL GDP GROWTH (Q4/Q4)

2.0%

INFLATION (PCE Price Index, Q4/Q4)

2.7%

UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (Q4)

3.9%

INTEREST RATE (3-Month Treasury Bills, Q4)

5.1%
-  ReportAn Update to the Budget and Economic Outlook: 2024 to 2034June 18, 2024
In CBO’s projections, the deficit totals nearly $2 trillion this year. Large deficits push federal debt held by the public to 122 percent of GDP in 2034. Economic growth slows to 2.0 percent in 2024 and 1.8 percent in 2026 and later years.

-  Blog PostCBO to Release Updated Budget and Economic Outlook on June 18June 4, 2024
CBO will publish "An Update to the Budget and Economic Outlook: 2024 to 2034" on June 18 at 2 p.m. EDT. On June 27 at 2 p.m., CBO will publish "An Analysis of the Discretionary Spending Proposals in the President’s 2025 Budget."

-  ReportBudgetary Outcomes Under Alternative Assumptions About Spending and RevenuesMay 8, 2024
CBO provides information about how its most recent budget projections would change under different assumptions about future legislated policies.

-  ReportThe Long-Term Budget Outlook: 2024 to 2054March 20, 2024
The federal budget deficit increases significantly in relation to gross domestic product over the next 30 years, in CBO’s projections, pushing federal debt held by the public far beyond any previously recorded level.

-  ReportThe Budget and Economic Outlook: 2024 to 2034February 7, 2024
In CBO’s projections, federal budget deficits total $20 trillion over the 2025–2034 period and federal debt held by the public reaches 116 percent of GDP. Economic growth slows to 1.5 percent in 2024 and then continues at a moderate pace.

-  Blog PostCBO to Release Budget and Economic Outlook on February 7January 18, 2024
CBO will release "The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2024 to 2034" at 2 p.m. EST on February 7.

-  ReportThe 2023 Long-Term Budget OutlookJune 28, 2023
The U.S. faces a challenging fiscal outlook in the coming years, according to CBO's projections. Measured as a percentage of GDP, large and sustained deficits lead to high and rising federal debt that exceeds any previously recorded level.

-  ReportHow the Fiscal Responsibility Act of 2023 Affects CBO’s Projections of Federal DebtJune 9, 2023
Deficit reductions under the Fiscal Responsibility Act of 2023 reduce projected federal debt in 2033 by about 3 percent, from $46.7 trillion (or 119 percent of gross domestic product, or GDP) to $45.2 trillion (or 115 percent of GDP).

-  ReportBudgetary Outcomes Under Alternative Assumptions About Spending and RevenuesMay 16, 2023
CBO provides information about how its most recent budget projections would change under different assumptions about future legislated policies.

-  ReportAn Update to the Budget Outlook: 2023 to 2033May 12, 2023
CBO’s updated projections show a federal budget deficit of $1.5 trillion for 2023. That estimate is subject to considerable uncertainty, though, in part because of a recent shortfall in tax revenues.

-  ReportAn Evaluation of CBO’s Projections of Outlays From 1984 to 2021April 26, 2023
In this report, CBO uses various measures to assess the quality of its past projections of federal outlays. The analysis focuses on three fiscal years within each projection period: the budget year, the 6th year, and the 11th year.

-  ReportThe Budget and Economic Outlook: 2023 to 2033February 15, 2023
In CBO’s projections, the federal deficit totals $1.4 trillion in 2023 and averages $2.0 trillion per year from 2024 to 2033.  Real GDP growth comes to a halt in 2023 and then rebounds, averaging 2.4 percent from 2024 to 2027.

-  ReportCBO’s Current View of the Economy in 2023 and 2024 and the Budgetary ImplicationsNovember 30, 2022
CBO describes its current view of the economy over the next two years, compares that view with projections of other forecasters and with those that CBO made previously, and explains the implications for the federal budget.

-  ReportAutomatic Stabilizers in the Federal Budget: 2022 to 2032October 27, 2022
CBO projects the budgetary effects of automatic stabilizers—as well as the size of deficits without them—from 2022 to 2032 and provides historical estimates of the stabilizers’ effects since 1972.

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