Figure 1.

Percent Distribution of the

Population, by Age: 1993 to 2050

(Middle series projections)

Under 18

18 to 44

45 to 64

65 to 84

85 and over

1.3 2.0 2.5 4.8

11.4

17.5 15.6

18.9

26.2

21.8 22.3

42.4

36.0 34.4 33.9

26.0 24.5 23.7 23.4

11.4

Current Population Reports 

Special Studies

Series P-23, No. 188

December 1994

Demographic State of

the Nation: 1995

This is an overview of some major

demographic findings reported by the

Census Bureau since January 1994.

Topics covered give an update on 

trends and attending issues facing

America today and into the next

century. If you are interested in

additional information on the topics

in this report, call one of our subject

specialists listed on page 4.

United States population is

projected to surpass 390 million

in 2050.

The U.S. population would increase

more than 50 percent, from 258 million

in 1993 to 392 million in 2050, under the

Census Bureau’s middle series

population projection. The population

would grow to 276 million in 2000, 300

million in 2010, 350 million in 2030, and

372 million in 2040. The average annual

growth rate, however, would decrease by

half from 1.10 percent from 1990 to 1995

to 0.54 percent from 2040 to 2050. The

middle series assumes that in 2050 there

would be 2.1 births per woman, an

82.6-year life expectancy, and net

immigration of 880,000.

In 1993, there were 33 million persons

65 and over representing 13 percent of

the population, and projections for 2050

indicate that there will be over 80 million

people 65 and over who would represent

20 percent of the population (figure 1).

The 85 and over population is growing

especially fast. It is projected to more

than triple in size from 3 million (1 percent) in 1993 to 9 million (3 percent) in

2030 and to more than double in size

from 2030 to 2050 (to 19 million people

or 5 percent of the population).

The rate of household growth

has declined.

There were an estimated 96 million

households in 1993, 722,000 more than

in 1992. The average annual rate of

growth in the number of households has

decreased over the past 20 years from 

2.4 percent in the 1970’s, to 1.4 percent

in the 1980’s, to 1.1 percent from 1990 

to 1993.

In 1993, there were 68 million

family households: 78 percent

(53 million) were married-couple

families, 18 percent (12 million) were

families maintained by a woman alone,

and 4 percent (3 million) were maintained by a man alone. (A family has at

least two members with at least one who

is a relative of the householder.) There

were 28 million nonfamily households,

most of which contained only one person.

The proportion of all parent-child

family groups maintained by single parents rose dramatically from 13 percent in

1970 to 30 percent in 1993.1 Nearly 75

percent of these “single” parents either

had never married (36 percent) or were

divorced (38 percent) in 1993. The absent parent was usually the father (86

percent of single-parent situations).

A majority of Black family groups

with children were maintained by single

parents in 1993 (63 percent), compared

with 25 percent among Whites. This is

much larger than in 1970, when the percentages were 36 percent and 10 percent,

respectively. More than 1 in 3 (35 percent) Hispanic family groups with children were maintained by single parents in

1993, compared with 26 percent in 1980

(comparable 1970 data are not available

for Hispanics). (Persons of Hispanic 

origin may be of any race.)

In 1991, almost one-fourth of

preschoolers were cared for

primarily in an organized facility

while their mothers were at work.

In fall 1991, there were 31 million

children under 15 living with their

employed mothers (55 percent of

all children under 15). Of these

31 million children, 10 million were preschoolers under 5. Among these preschoolers, 23 percent (2 million) were in

an organized child care facility, such as a

nursery school; 36 percent (4 million)

were cared for in their own home; and 31

percent (3 million) were cared for in

another home.

1 Parent-child family groups have at least one

never-married own child under 18 living in

them, and include family households, related

subfamilies, and unrelated subfamilies.
65 and over

45–64

35–44

25–34

18–24

Under 18

Figure 2.

Percent of Persons Not

Covered by Health Insurance,

by Age: 1993

	



		



1.2

3.6

13.7

39.5

44.5

16.8

21.6

39.3

26.8

43.0

13.7

20.1

2 Demographic State of the Nation: 1995

The proportion of children of preschool age cared for in a nonrelative’s

home declined from 24 percent in 1988

to 18 percent in 1991. In 1991, 20 percent of preschoolers were cared for by

their fathers while their mothers were at

work, up from 15 percent in 1988.

Poor families with only preschoolers

paid less for child care than their nonpoor

counterparts: $52 compared with $70 per

week. However, poor families with preschoolers spent a larger percentage of

their family income on child care (20

percent) than similar nonpoor families 

(8 percent).

Nursery school enrollment has

more than doubled since 1973.

In October 1993, 65 million persons

were enrolled in regular schools,

compared with 59 million in 1983 and 60

million in 1973. There were 7 million

persons in nursery school and kindergarten, 31 million in elementary school, 14

million in high school, and 14 million in

college. Nursery school enrollment has

more than doubled from 1.3 million in

1973 to 3.0 million in 1993, due in part

to the increasing educational levels and

labor force participation rates of mothers.

High school graduation rates for persons 18 to 24 rose slightly from 81 percent in 1973 to 82 percent in 1993. The

1993 graduation figures were 83 percent

for Whites, 75 percent for Blacks, and 61

percent for Hispanics. Of those recent

graduates, 42 percent of Whites, 33 percent of Blacks, and 36 percent of Hispanics (not significantly different from

Black) were enrolled in college.

The annual high school dropout

rate2 declined from 6.3 percent in

1973 to 4.2 percent in 1993. The

1993 rates were 4.1 percent for Whites,

5.4 percent for Blacks, and 6.4 percent

for Hispanics (not significantly different

from each other). The rate for men was

4.4 percent, not significantly different

from the rate of 4.1 percent for women.

2 The annual dropout rate is calculated as the

proportion of persons 14 to 24 enrolled in

grades 10-12 in Oct. 1992 who were no longer

enrolled and had not graduated by Oct. 1993.

About 15 percent of the population

received public assistance in at least

1 month in 1991.

In 1991, the average monthly number

of persons participating in at least one

major Federal public assistance program3

was 30.9 million (12.4 percent), up from

28.5 million (11.5 percent) in 1990. Persons participating at least 1 month in

1991 numbered 38.0 million (15.5 percent), an increase of 2.3 million since

1990. Public assistance recipients for all

24 months of 1990 and 1991 numbered

18.1 million, representing 7.6 percent of

the Nation’s total population. More persons participated in the Medicaid program (19.1 million) and the Food Stamp

program (17.1 million) in an average

month in 1990 than any other program.

In an average month in 1990,

48.9 percent of program participants received at least half of their income (including the value of food stamps) from

programs, and 29.6 percent received all

of their income from programs. Median

monthly family benefits from Aid to

Families with Dependent Children

(AFDC)/General Assistance, Supplemental Security Income (SSI), and food

stamps were $420 in 1990 and 1991.

Among persons in families maintained

by a woman alone, 37.2 percent were

program participants in an average month

in 1990, compared with 6.1 percent of

persons in married-couple families. Female householder families also were

more likely to have longer median spells

of program participation than persons in

married-couple families in 1990, 11.4

months compared with 7.3 months.

NOTE: The 1993 estimates in the

health insurance, income, and poverty sections

are based on civilian noninstitutional population benchmarks established by the 1990 decennial census (adjusted for undercoverage). Previously published 1992 and 1989 data have

been revised using the 1990 census population

controls to improve comparability with the 1993

estimates.

3 Major means-tested assistance programs

include public housing assistance, AFDC, General Assistance, SSI, Medicaid, food stamps, and

Federal or State rent assistance.

More persons were without health

insurance in 1993 than in 1992.

An estimated 39.7 million people

were without health insurance coverage

during the entire 1993 calendar year, 1.1

million more than in 1992. Among poor

persons, 11.5 million were uninsured in

1993, up about 500,000 from 1992. The

proportions of all persons (15.3 percent)

and poor persons (29.3 percent) lacking

coverage were statistically unchanged

from 1992 to 1993.

Among all persons in 1993, 

70.2 percent were covered by a private

insurance plan for some or all of

the year (57.1 percent were covered

through a plan offered by an employer or

union). The rest of the insured were covered by Medicaid (12.2 percent), Medicare (12.7 percent), and military health

care (3.7 percent). (Some persons carry

coverage from more than one type of

plan.) 

Among all age groups, persons 18 to

24 were the most likely to be uninsured

in 1993 (26.8 percent), while only

1.2 percent of persons 65 and over lacked

any coverage (figure 2). Among the

poor, persons 18 to 64 had much higher

noncoverage rates than persons under 18

or persons 65 and over.

In 1993, 51.9 percent of the

137.1 million workers had employerprovided health insurance policies in their

own name. This proportion varied by

size of employer. About 29.3 percent of

workers employed by firms with less than

25 persons had
1.6

Figure 3.

Median Household Income, by Race and Hispanic

Origin: 1989 and 1993

(In 1993 dollars)

1989

1993

Total White Black Asian and

Pacific

Islander

Hispanic origin

(of any race)

$33,585 $31,241

$35,329 $32,960

$21,232 $19,532

$41,964

$38,347

$25,382 $22,886

Figure 4.

Poverty Rates, by Family Type: 1993

(In percent)

All

families

Marriedcouple

families

Male

householder,

no wife

present

families

Female

householder,

no husband

present

families

Persons (in

millions) for

whom poverty

status is

determined

68.5 36.5 53.2 26.1 2.9 12.4 8.8

With and

without

children

under 18

With children under 18

12.3

18.5

6.5

9.0

16.8

22.5

35.6

46.1

Bureau of the Census 3

policies in their own name, compared

with 66.9 percent of workers employed

by firms with 1,000 or more workers.

Real median household income

declined between 1992 and 1993.4

Median household income was

$31,241 in 1993, down 1.0 percent in

real terms from 1992 ($31,553).

Although our most recent recessionary

period ended in March 1991, household

income has not recovered to the 1989

pre-recessionary level of $33,585 (in

1993 dollars). From 1989 to 1993, real

median household income declined by

7.0 percent.

In central cities of metropolitan

areas of one million or more persons, the

real median income of households

declined 3.2 percent from $27,498 in

1992 to $26,622 in 1993. Since 1989,

the income of these households has

declined by 12.0 percent in real terms. 

In comparison, there was no change from

1992 to 1993 in the median income of

households in the suburbs (outside central

cities in these metropolitan areas)

($41,211) and households located outside

all metropolitan areas ($25,309).

Real median household income

by race and Hispanic origin showed no

change from 1992 to 1993. However,

household income for all of these groups

declined from 1989 to 1993 (figure 3).

Asian and Pacific Islanders had the

highest median income in 1993

($38,347), while Blacks had the lowest

($19,532). The median income of

Hispanics was $22,886 in 1993, and

for Whites it was $32,960.

From 1992 to 1993, real median

earnings of year-round, full-time workers

15 and over declined by 2.2 percent for

men, from $31,101 to $30,407, and 1.2

percent for women, from $22,015 to

$21,747. (The difference between these

declines is not statistically different.) The

1993 female-to-male earnings ratio for

these workers was 0.72, comparable to

the 1990 all-time high.

4 All changes in income and earnings refer to

comparisons after adjusting for inflation. The

income data in this section are based on money

income from regularly received sources before

taxes and exclude capital gains and the value of

noncash benefits.

Poverty increased for the fourth

consecutive year.

There were 39.3 million persons below the official government poverty level

of $14,763 for a family of four in 1993,

up from 38.0 million in 1992 and 32.4

million in 1989. The 1993 poverty rate

was 15.1 percent—not significantly different from the 1992 rate of 14.8 percent,

but higher than the 1989 rate of 

13.1 percent.

In 1993, about half of our Nation’s

poor were children under 18 or persons

65 and over, 40.1 percent and

9.6 percent, respectively.

The poverty rate was 22.7

percent for all children

under 18, 12.4 percent for

persons 18 to 64, and 12.2

percent for the elderly.

Over one-third (35.6 percent) of families maintained by a woman alone

were poor, compared with

only 6.5 percent of married-couple families

(figure 4).

The poverty rates

by race and Hispanic

origin did not change

from 1992 to 1993.

Blacks had the highest

rate in 1993 (33.1 percent), and Whites had the

lowest rate (12.2 percent).

The Hispanic poverty rate

was 30.6 percent.

In nonmetropolitan areas, the

1993 poverty rate (17.2 percent) was

higher than that in metropolitan areas

(14.6 percent). The poverty rate in

central cities was the highest of the metro/nonmetro residence types (21.5 percent). The percentage of poor persons

living in central cities was 42.8 percent,

compared with 30.2 percent of all persons.

Crowded living conditions

were most prevalent among

low-income or near low-income

households in 1991.

In 1991, 13 million households

(14 percent) of the Nation’s 93 million

households were low income, that

is, those with incomes below the

poverty level.5 An additional 5 million

5 The data on the numbers of poor and nearpoor households in this section come from the

American Housing Survey. They should not be

compared to the data in the earlier sections on

income and poverty which come from the Current Population Survey, the official source of

annual poverty estimates in the United States.
Figure 5.

Homeownership Rates, by

Family Type: 1982 and 1993

(In percent) 



64.5

64.8

79.1

78.5

54.6

59.3

44.5

47.1

United

States

total

Marriedcouple

families

Male

house- holder,

no wife

present

Female

householder, no

husband

present

4 Demographic State of the Nation: 1995

households (5 percent) were near

low income, that is, those with incomes

between 100 and 124 percent of the

poverty line.

About 1 percent of all homeowners

reported crowded living conditions (more

than one person per room), compared

with 4 percent each of low-income and

near low-income owners. Among all

renters, 5 percent lived in crowded

homes, compared with 10 percent of 

low-income and 8 percent of near lowincome renters.

A smaller proportion of all homeowners with mortgages (28 percent) 

spent at least 30 percent of their income

on housing costs than similar low-income

(89 percent) and near low-income homeowners (72 percent). Low-income and

near low-income householders owned

homes with a median value of $47,000,

compared with $80,000 for all owners.

The homeownership rate is at its

highest level since 1985.

There were 110 million housing

units in the United States in 1993: 

63 million were owner occupied,

35 million were renter occupied,

and 12 million were vacant.

In 1993, 65 percent of U.S.

house-holds were owner occupied, the

highest homeownership rate since 1985.

The rate for married-couple families in

1993 was 79 percent, its highest level

since 1988. The 1993 rates for families

maintained by men alone and women

alone were 55 percent and 45 percent,

respectively (figure 5). Among one-person households, the homeowner-ship rate

was 43 percent for men and 55 percent

for women.

Inside metropolitan areas, the homeownership rate in 1993 was 62 percent,

compared with 73 percent outside metropolitan areas. About 71 percent of units

in suburbs were owner occupied,

compared with 49 percent in central cities. Among States, homeownership rates

ranged from 53 percent in Hawaii to 74

percent in Delaware. The homeownership rate in the District of Columbia was

36 percent.

For further information, call (301):

National population projections

Jennifer Day 457-2428

Households and families

Steve Rawlings 457-2465

Child care

Lynne Casper 457-2416

School enrollment

Rosalind Bruno 457-2464

Program participation

Martina Shea 763-8578

Health insurance/Income

Carmen DeNavas 763-8576

Poverty

Eleanor Baugher 763-8578

Housing of lower-income households

Timothy Grall 763-8148

Homeownership and vacancies

Robert Callis 763-8165

General information on this report

Janice Valdisera 457-2381

Linda Kehm 457-2381

Source and Accuracy of Estimates

Data presented here are from the

Current Population Survey, the Survey of

Income and Program Participation, and

the American Housing Survey. The

survey data are subject to sampling

variability as well as to survey design

errors, respondent classification and

reporting errors, and data processing

errors. The Census Bureau has taken

steps to minimize errors, and statistical

statements have been tested and meet

Bureau of the Census statistical

standards. Further information can be

found in detailed reports.