# State Implementation Plan **2008 Eight -Hour Ozone National Ambient Air Quality**  **Standard Emissions Inventory & Emissions Statement**

**The Ohio Environmental Protection Agency Division of Air Pollution Control**  **July 2014 State Implementation Plan** 

**2008 Eight-Hour Ozone NAAQS Emissions Inventory & Emissio ns Statement**  **Ohio Environmental Protection Agency July 2014**  

### Acknowledgement

**The Ohio EPA, Division of Air Pollution Control wou ld like to express appreciation for the extensive effo**  **rts and expertise providing onroad data by the Ohio Depa**  **rtment of Transportation and the nonattainment area Metropolitan Planning Organizations inlcuding th**  **e Ohio-Kentucky-Indiana Regional Council of Governments (OKI), the Northeast Ohio Areawide Coordi**  **nating Agency (NOACA), and the Mid-Ohio Regional Planning Commission (MORPC). Appreciation is**  **also extended to Mark Janssen of the Lake Michigan Air Directors Consortium (LADCO) for the emiss**  **ions inventory data included in this submittal. State Implementation Plan** 

**2008 Eight-Hour Ozone NAAQS Emissions Inventory & Emissio ns Statement**  **Ohio Environmental Protection Agency July 2014**  

### Table of Contents

**1 Introduction ........................................** 

**................................................... ................... 1** 

**2 Nonattainment Areas ................................** 

**................................................... ............ 3** 

**2.1 Cincinnati .........................................** 

**................................................... ............... 3** 

**2.2 Cleveland-Akron-Lorain ..............................** 

**................................................... .... 3** 

**2.3 Columbus ..........................................** 

**................................................... .............. 3** 

**3 Emission Inventory Summary ............................** 

**................................................... ... 5** 

**3.1 Point Source Emissions ................................** 

**................................................... .. 6** 

**3.1.1 Non-Electric Generating Units .........................**  **............................................ 6**

**3.1.2 Electric Generating Units .............................**  **................................................ 6**

**3.2 Area Source Emissions ..................................** 

**................................................... . 7** 

**3.3 Mobile Source Emissions ...............................** 

**................................................... . 8** 

**3.3.1 Onroad Mobile Emissions ...............................**  **............................................. 8**

**3.3.2 Nonroad Mobile Emissions .............................**  **............................................. 9**

**3.4 Emission Inventory Quality Assurance .....................**  **........................................ 10**

**4 Source Emission Statement .............................** 

**................................................... ... 16** 

**5 Projected Emissions Modeling ..........................** 

**................................................... .. 17** 

**6 References .........................................** 

**................................................... ................. 18** 

**Figures**



### Figure 1. Ohio 2008 Eight-Hour Ozone (0.075 ppm) Nonatt **ainment Areas .................... 4**

**Tables**



### Table 1. 2008 VOC Typical Summer Day Emissions ........ **............................................ 12 Table 2. 2008 NO**  **x**



### Typical Summer Day Emissions ........................ **............................. 13 Table 3. 2008 VOC Total Annual Emissions ............** 

**................................................... .. 14**  **Table 4. 2008 NO x**  

### Total Annual Emissions .............................. **..................................... 15 Table 5. US EPA Projected 2015 Ozone Design Values.....**  **.......................................... 17**

**Appendices**

**Appendix A ConCEPT**

**– Consolidated Community Emissions Processing Tool An Open** 

**Source Tool for the Emissions Modeling Community Appendix B State of Ohio 2008 Base Year Emissions Inve**  **ntory Report Appendix C EGU Point Source Emission Units in the 2008**  **Base Year Emissions Inventory State Implementation Plan** 

**2008 Eight-Hour Ozone NAAQS Emissions Inventory & Emissio ns Statement**  **Ohio Environmental Protection Agency July 2014**  **Appendix D Non-EGU Point Source Emission Units in the 2 008 Base Year Emissions** 

**Inventory Appendix E Temporally Allocating Emission with CEM Dat**  **a for Chemical Transport and SIP**

**Modeling Appendix F 2008 Base Year Emissions Inventory Area (nonp**  **oint) Sources by County and**

**SCC Appendix G 2008 Ozone Mobile Sources Emissions Inventory fo**  **r Ohio Portion of the**

**Cincinnati Ozone Nonattainment Area Appendix H Central Ohio On-Road Mobile Emission Estimate**  **s Appendix I Technical Memorandum Northeast Ohio (AMATS,**  **ERPC, NOACA, Ashtabula)**

**2008 Base Year Inventories for Ozone NAAQS Mobile Sour ce Emission (VOC**  **and NO x**  **) Appendix J 2008 Base Year Emissions Inventory Onroad Emissi**  **ons by County and Road**

**Type Appendix K 2008 Base Year Emissions Inventory Nonroad Sou**  **rces by County and SCC Appendix L 2008 Base Year Emissions Inventory MAR Sources**  **by County and SCC Appendix M Spreadsheet estimates 2015 design values for**  **hypothetical 8-hour ozone**

**nonattainment areas for the 75 ppb NAAQS for the purp ose of estimating the**  **number of marginal nonattainment areas that are expe cted to attain the NAAQS**  **by their attainment date (2015) Appendix N Public Notice, Public Hearing and Comment Pe**  **riod Documents State Implementation Plan**  **Page 1** 

**2008 Eight-Hour Ozone NAAQS Emissions Inventory & Emissio ns Statement**  **Ohio Environmental Protection Agency July 2014**  **1 Introduction**

**The 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments (CAAA) requires the United States Environmental**  **Protection Agency (US EPA) to set National Ambient Ai r Quality Standard (NAAQS) for**  **pollutants considered harmful to public health and the environment. In 2008, the US EPA**  **established revisions to the primary and secondary National Ambient Air Quality Standards for**  **ozone thereby replacing the 1997 ozone standards. The 2008 NAAQS for Ozone established a**  **primary and secondary 8-hour ozone standard of 0.075 part s per million (ppm) (73 FR 16436).** 

**Ground level ozone is not directly emitted into the a ir. It is formed as a product of chemical**  **reactions between nitrogen oxides (NO x**  **) and volatile organic compounds (VOCs), referred to as ozone precursors, in the presence of sunlight. Industrial faci**  **lities, motor vehicle exhaust, gasoline vapors and chemical solvents are a few examples of**  **emission sources contributing to these ozone precursors. Ozone is a harmful pollutant at g**  **round level and is of particular concern during the summer months when sunlight and hot wea**  **ther can form harmful ozone concentrations which can trigger a variety of chest, throat**  **and lung related health problems.**

**The CAAA defines five ozone nonattainment area classifica tions based on severity for areas**  **that exceed the NAAQS. The nonattainment area classificat ions are as follows (in order of**  **increasing severity): marginal, moderate, serious, severe and extreme. The US EPA**  **“ Air Quality**  **Designations for the 2008 Ozone NAAQS ”**  **rule designated nonattainment and unclassifiable/attainment areas nationwide effective July**  **2012 (77 FR 30088). These designations were published concurrently with the “Imple**  **mentation of the 2008 NAAQS for Ozone: Nonattainment Area Classifications Approach, Attai**  **nment Deadlines and Revocation of the 1997 Ozone Standards for Transportation Conformity**  **Purposes” rule which established the**  **air quality thresholds for classification categories that are assigned to all areas designated**  **nonattainment for the 2008 Ozone NAAQS according to the ‘‘percent**  **-above-the- standard’’**  **methodology (77 FR 30160).**

**In Ohio, three nonattainment areas (NAAs) have been desi gnated for the 2008 NAAQS for**  **Ozone including Cincinnati, Cleveland-Akron-Lorain and Columbus. These nonattainment**  **areas, comprised of multiple counties, have each been classi fied as Marginal nonattainment**  **based on an area design value criteria. The Cincinnati n onattainment area is a multi-state**  **nonattainment area which includes partial nonattainment areas in counties located outside of**  **Ohio in Kentucky and Indiana (77 FR 30088). The nonat tainment areas are discussed in further**  **detail in the following section.**

**Outside of the Marginal nonattainment designation areas, all other counties in the State of Ohio**  **have been designated as unclassifiable/attainment (77 FR 30088). US EPA has historically**  **used the “unclassifiable/attainment” category for areas that either have air quality monitors that**  **demonstrate attainment and for areas that do not have monitors and for which there is no**  **reason to believe they are not in attainment or are co ntributing to nearby violations.** 

**Attainment dates and State Implementation Plan (SIP) su bmission requirements are dependent**  **upon area classification designations. Under section 182(a) o f the CAAA, Marginal areas have**  **up to 3 years from designation to attain the NAAQS, a nd are not required to submit an**  **attainment demonstration. When Congress amended the CAA in 1990, it anticipated that**  **nonattainment areas with ozone concentrations close to th e NAAQS would likely come into**  **attainment within 3 years of designation without any additional local planning (78 FR 34184).** **State Implementation Plan Page**  **2**

**2008 Eight-Hour Ozone NAAQS Emissions Inventory & Emissio ns Statement**  **Ohio Environmental Protection Agency July 2014**  **This SIP submittal is intended to satisfy the requireme nts for the designated Ohio Marginal**  **nonattainment areas established in the proposed “Implemen tation of the**  **2008 NAAQS for Ozone: SIP Requirements”**  **(78 FR 34178) including the emissions inventory and emissio ns**  **statement requirements. The 2008 emission inventory has b een selected as the appropriate**  **inventory for SIP development. The 2008 base year ozo ne emissions inventory presented in this**  **document is an inventory of the actual reported, estimat ed or calculated typical summer day and**  **annual VOC and NO x** 

**emissions for Ohio sources. Ohio EPA has prepared an invent ory for**  **each nonattainment area including the point, area, onr oad and nonroad sectors. Typical**  **summer day emissions were evaluated for summer weekdays in the months of June, July and**  **August. State Implementation Plan**  **Page 3** 

**2008 Eight-Hour Ozone NAAQS Emissions Inventory & Emissio ns Statement**  **Ohio Environmental Protection Agency July 2014**  **2 Nonattainment Areas**

**The US EPA “Air Quality Designations for the 2008 Ozo ne NAAQS” rule designated**  **three nonattainment areas in Ohio (77 FR 30088). The design**  **value for an individual monitoring site is the three-year average of the annual fourth highest da**  **ily maximum eight-hour average ozone concentration. An area meets the standard if, and only**  **if, every monitoring site in the area meets the NAAQS. The designated nonattainment areas in**  **Ohio have each been classified as Marginal nonattainment based on an area design value crit**  **eria above the NAAQS of 0.075 ppm. Each of the three nonattainment areas is comprised of a subse**  **t of several counties. Figure 1 shows the location of the counties included in each designa**  **ted nonattainment area discussed below.** 

**2.1 Cincinnati**

**The Cincinnati nonattainment area is a multi-state nona ttainment area which includes partial**  **nonattainment areas in counties located outside of Ohio i n Kentucky and Indiana. The**  **Cincinnati nonattainment area includes the following cou nties: Butler, Clermont, Clinton,**  **Hamilton and Warren Counties in Ohio; portions of Boo ne, Kenton and Campbell Counties in**  **Kentucky; and portions of Dearborn County in Indian a. The typical summer day emissions**  **inventory and emission statement information presented in this report is only representative of**  **the nonattainment counties located in Ohio. The Ohio-Ke ntucky-Indiana Regional Council of**  **Governments (OKI) is the designated metropolitan planni ng organization (MPO) for all of the**  **Cincinnati ozone nonattainment area with the exception of Clinton County, Ohio.** 

**2.2 Cleveland-Akron-Lorain**

**The Cleveland-Akron-Lorain nonattainment area includes the following counties: Ashtabula,**  **Cuyahoga, Geauga, Lake, Lorain, Medina, Portage and S ummit. The Northeast Ohio Areawide**  **Coordinating Agency (NOACA) is the MPO that covers Cuyah oga, Geauga, Lake, Lorain and**  **Medina. The Akron Metropolitan Area Tranportation St udy (AMATS) is the MPO that covers**  **Summit and Portage counties.**

**2.3 Columbus**

**The Columbus nonattainment area includes the following counties: Delaware, Fairfield, Franklin,**  **Knox, Licking and Madison. The six county Columbus nonatt ainment area includes two MPOs,**  **the Mid-Ohio Regional Planning Commission (MORPC) and the Licking County Area**  **Tranportation Study (LCATS). MORPC covers Franklin Coun ty, Delaware County, Pataskala**  **and Etna Township in Licking County, and Violet and B loom Townships in Fairfield County.**  **LCATS covers the ramainder of Licking county. Madison Cou nty, Delaware County and the**  **remainder of Fairfield County are located outside of th e MPO area coverage.** **State Implementation Plan Page**  **4**

**2008 Eight-Hour Ozone NAAQS Emissions Inventory & Emissio ns Statement**  **Ohio Environmental Protection Agency July 2014**  **Figure 1. Ohio 2008 Eight-Hour Ozone (0.075 ppm) Non attainment Areas** **State Implementation Plan Page**  **5**

**2008 Eight-Hour Ozone NAAQS Emissions Inventory & Emissio ns Statement**  **Ohio Environmental Protection Agency July 2014**  **3 Emission Inventory Summary**

**This section presents a summary of the 2008 Base Year Em issions Inventory for Ohio. Marginal**  **nonattainment areas are required to submit an emission i nventory summary (EIS) for the**  **nonattainment area within 2 years of nonattainment desi gnation (CAA Section 182(a)(1)).** 

**“ Emission inventories are critical for the efforts of state**  **, local and federal agencies to attain and maintain the NAAQS that the US EPA has established for**  **criteria pollutants, including ozone. The CAA section 182(a)(3)(A) requires that states submit pe**  **riodic emission inventories every 3 years after the initial base year inventory for Marginal**  **and above ozone nonattainment areas. The periodic inventory must include emissions of VOC and NO**  **x for point, area, and mobile**  **sources (onroad and nonroad). On December 4, 2008, the US EPA promulgated the AERR rule**  **(40 CFR 51, subpart A). The AERR requires states to sub mit comprehensive statewide 3-year**  **cycle emission inventories (2008, 2011, 2014, etc.) regardless of an area’s attainment status.**  **The Proposed Implementation Rule US EPA has suggested f or states with periodic inventory**  **obligations under 182(a)(3)(A) to rely on their 3-year cycle inventory as described in the AERR**  **to satisfy their 182(a)(3)(A) periodic inventory obliga tion.**  **” (78 FR 34201)** 

**At the time the 2008 emission inventory was evaluated, pe rmitted Ohio facilities classified as**  **Title V were required to file a complete EIS. The EIS includes detailed emissions information as**  **well as data about the egress points where pollutants are released into the air including NO**  **x and VOCs. Ohio EPA has the authority under Ohio Admin**  **istrative Code (OAC) rule 3745-15- 03 to request and receive this information from regul**  **ated entities.**

**A typical permitted facility may have multiple source ty pes. For example, a refinery with**  **numerous industrial processes would itself be a point source, the leaks from valves and the**  **switch engine that moves tank cars on the railroad siding would be a nonroad mobile source. A**  **typical permitted facility may also have more than one industrial classification. The refinery in**  **the previous example is in one industrial category while the tank farm is in another. Quantities**  **of emissions may be measured directly (at the stack); they may be calculated from engineering**  **principles (e.g., mass balance); or they may be estimated (e. g., by assuming reasonable**  **emission rates, times, etc.). Emissions can be expressed in ter ms of annual emissions,**  **seasonal emissions or daily emissions. For the purpose of this submittal, the data presented**  **has been quantified as typical summer day emissions in ton s per day.** 

**Ohio EPA prepared a comprehensive emissions inventory includin g point, area and mobile**  **sources for precursors of ozone (VOCs and NO x**  **) for base year 2008. The point sources were divided into two categories, electric generating units (EG**  **Us) and non-EGUs. Four basic steps were involved in the preparation of the emission inventory**  **including planning, data collection, data analysis and emission estimation and reporting.** 

**Emission estimates generally followed the methodologies o utlined in US EPA**  **’s emission inventory preparation guidance document, Volumes I-IV and**  **US EPA ’s “Reporting Guidance for**  **1996 Periodic Emissions Inventories and Nationa l Emission Trends (NET) Inventories.”**  **The Lake Michigan Air Directors Consortium (LADCO) spatially a**  **nd temporally processed the emissions data in accordance with US EPA guidance:**  **“ Guidelines on the Use of Models and**  **Other Analyses for Demonstrating Attainment of Air Qual ity Goals for Ozone, PM2.5, and**  **Regional Haze”, EPA -454/B07-002, April 2007. To ensure the EIS is of the h**  **ighest quality, Ohio EPA implemented quality assurance (QA) procedures and**  **quality control (QC) checks throughout the inventory development process. Ohio EPA sp**  **ecifically followed the procedures outlined in US EPA**  **’s guidance documents pertaining to inventory quality assur ance and** **State Implementation Plan Page**  **6**

**2008 Eight-Hour Ozone NAAQS Emissions Inventory & Emissio ns Statement**  **Ohio Environmental Protection Agency July 2014**  **believes the inventory to be complete, accurate and of hi gh quality.** 

**In the case of the pollutant ozone, precursor emissions are expressed in terms of typical daily**  **emissions representative of the peak ozone season, or tons pe r day. LADCO has processed**  **annual emissions data files for the 2008 base year invent ory using the Consolidated Community**  **Emissions Processing Tool (CONCEPT) model and calculated da ily emissions in a robust,**  **consistent and transparent manner (Appendix A). The inf ormation below describes the**  **procedures Ohio EPA used to generate the 2008 base year ozone emissions inventory. A**  **detailed description of the development of the 2008 b ase year emissions inventory estimates in**  **its entirety is available in Appendix B. More informa tion on the development and results of the**  **2008 base year emissions inventory is available on the LA DCO website at:** 

**http://www.ladco.org/tech/emis/current/index.php**

**3.1 Point Source Emissions**

**Emissions from point sources are defined as those whose emissio ns are usually fairly well**  **characterized, are generally discharged through stacks and which are required to possess an**  **Ohio EPA issued permit. The final point source inventory is divided into two categories: EGUs**  **and non-EGUs. The majority of the point source EGU in ventory is comprised of the US EPA**  **Clean Air Markets Division (CAMD) inventory. The non-E GU inventory, and several EGUs not**  **required to submit data to CAMD, are comprised of point source facility data submitted to Ohio**  **EPA. Typical summer day and total annual emissions of NO x**  **and VOCs for Ohio point sources are presented by county in Tables 1-4. Based on the typica**  **l summer day emissions presented in Tables 1 and 2 the EGU NO**  **x emissions were the second largest emission sector in the**  **Cincinnati NAA. Appendices C and D contain a detailed list of the EGU and non-EGU point**  **sources included in the 2008 base year inventory by facili ty and unit ID, with their respective**  **VOC and NO x** 

**emissions.**

**3.1.1 Non-Electric Generating Units The primary source of data for non-EGU point sources was**  **the facility reported 2008 annual emission data. Ohio Title V facilities are required to su**  **bmit annual emissions reports through the Ohio EPA web interface, Air Services. Under Title V**  **, major sources are those with the potential to emit 100 tons per year or more of any one**  **regulated pollutant (PM10; nitrogen oxides; sulfur dioxide; carbon monoxide; volatile organ**  **ic compounds; and lead); 10 tons per year or more of any one hazardous air pollutant (HAP);**  **or 25 tons per year or more of any two or more hazardous air pollutants. The emissions data are r**  **eported by the sources annually as part of the inventory process conducted by Ohio EPA and in**  **clude emissions, process rates, operating schedules, and other relevant facility**  **information. The data are stored in Ohio EPA’s internal data management system called STARS2. The data**  **were converted from Air Services into the EIS XML file format via a tool developed b**  **y Ohio EPA’s contractor, UNICON. The data were submitted to US EPA and LADCO. LADCO used the dat**  **a to spatially and temporally allocate typical summer daily emissions.** 

**3.1.2 Electric Generating Units 40 CFR Part 75 includes requirements for Ohio EGU unit**  **s to report emissions and activity data to the US EPA CAMD database. This data is referred to**  **as continuous emission monitoring (CEM) data. For these units, temporal allocation of VO**  **C and NO x**  **annual emissions to typical State Implementation Plan**  **Page 7** 

**2008 Eight-Hour Ozone NAAQS Emissions Inventory & Emissio ns Statement**  **Ohio Environmental Protection Agency July 2014**  **summer day emissions was accomplished utilizing a 3-tier appr oach. The total annual**  **emissions are based on the emissions reported in the CAMD da tabase. For all other EGU units,**  **the Ohio EPA facility reported 2008 annual emission data was used as described in section**  **3.1.1 above.**

**The Tier 1 approach to the temporal allocation of the CEM data was adapted from the**  **methodology presented in ‘Temporally Allocating Emission w ith CEM Data for Chemical**  **Transport and SIP Modeling’**  **(S. Edick, M. Janssen, n.d.). That methodology used CE M data**  **from 2001 through 2003 to temporally allocate 2002 e missions data. For the 2008 inventory**  **presented in this document, 2008 CEM data was used to temp orally allocate the 2008 typical**  **summer day emissions. Ohio EPA also deviated from the descr ibed methodology by using**  **annual unit emission values from the CEM data rather th an integrating the NIF inventory annual**  **unit emission values. A detailed description of the metho dology used for the temporal allocation**  **of the CAMD EGU unit emissions is available in Appendi x E.** 

**The results of the Tier 1 approach were reviewed and any suspected anomalies or zero values**  **were further analyzed using the Tier 2 approach. The Tie r 2 analysis was completed by finding**  **the average NO x** 

**emission rate of each unit for every weekday hour during summer 2008 (June**  **- August ). The resulting average hourly weekday NO x**  **emission rate was multiplied by 24 hours to calculate the typical summer day (ozone season) emissio**  **n rate in tons per day.**

**The results of the Tier 2 approach were reviewed and any anomalies or zero values were**  **further analyzed using the Tier 3 approach. In the Tie r 3 analysis the total annual EGU unit NO**  **x emissions were divided by 366 days (2008 was a leap year**  **) to produce a typical day emission assuming each day of the year produced an equivalent NO**  **x emission in tons per day.** 

**3.2 Area Source Emissions**

**Area sources (also referred to as nonpoint sources) are usual ly spread over wide areas with no**  **distinct discharge points or are comprised of a large number of small point sources that are**  **difficult to describe separately and whose emissions are not well characterized (e.g., heating**  **furnaces in individual homes, architectural surface coating, automobile refueling, dry cleaning,**  **etc.). Area emissions are typically estimated by multiplyi ng an emission factor by a known**  **indicator of activity (e.g., population, employment, etc.) for a source classification code (SCC).**  **For the 2008 inventory, States and US EPA formed the Eastern Regional Technical Advisory**  **Committee (ERTAC). The committee defined the invento ry categories, emissions factors and**  **sources of activity data and contracted with Transystems to develop draft emissions estimates.**  **County level activity data were provided to all States. When available, 2008 activity data was**  **used to perform calculations of emissions for area sources and Ohio EPA accepted the majority**  **of the estimates. In some cases Ohio developed a more ref ined methodology, produced more**  **accurate activity data, or applied a necessary point source subtraction to the ERTAC or US EPA**  **estimate. In a number of cases, data was provided from nat ional estimates and allocated to the**  **State and county levels. In a few cases projections from a previous inventory were used.**  **Appendix F contains a list of the area sources included in t he 2008 base year inventory by SCC**  **and County, with their respective VOC and NO x**  **emissions**

**The area source data were processed in Microsoft Excel and Access applications, converted**  **into the EIS XML file format via US EPA ’s EIS Bridge Application and provided to**  **US EPA and LADCO. The area source emissions files provided to LADCO we**  **re used to create spatial and temporal allocation of emissions and typical summer day esti**  **mates using the LADCO State Implementation Plan**  **Page 8** 

**2008 Eight-Hour Ozone NAAQS Emissions Inventory & Emissio ns Statement**  **Ohio Environmental Protection Agency July 2014**  **CONCEPT emissions model. The CONCEPT model produced typica l summer day emissions**  **estimates which were aggregated for each nonattainment coun ty. Typical summer day and total**  **annual emissions for Ohio area sources are presented in Table 1-4, respectively. The area**  **source VOC emissions were the second largest sector contributio n in the Columbus and**  **Cincinnati NAAs.**

**3.3 Mobile Source Emissions**

**Mobile sources are divided into two major categories**

**– onroad and nonroad. Onroad mobile**  **sources include cars, trucks, buses and motorcycles used for transp ortation of goods and**  **passengers on roads and streets. Nonroad mobile sources incl ude other modes of powered**  **transportation such as aircraft, locomotives, ships and moto r vehicles not associated with**  **highway vehicles. This classification protocol has been u tilized throughout this document.** 

**“For all inventories that are used in developing RFP p lans or attainment demonstrations, mobile**  **source emissions should be estimated using the latest emissions models, data and planning**  **assumptions. The latest approved models should be used to e stimate emissions from onroad**  **and nonroad sources, in combination with the latest avail able estimates of [vehicle miles**  **traveled] VMT, vehicle population, and/or equipment activity. States are advised to check the**  **US EPA Web pages for the mobile source models and to co nsult with the US EPA Office of**  **Transportation and Air Quality and their regional of fice to determine the versions of models to**  **use for their SIPs for the 2008 ozone NAAQS. Currently , the most recently approved model for**  **estimating onroad emissions in states outside of California is MOVES2010 which initially was**  **approved for use in SIPs on March 2, 2010 (75 FR 9411). The US EPA has subsequently**  **released two minor updates to MOVES2010, MOVES2010a a nd MOVES2010b that are also**  **approved for use in SIPs” (78 FR 34202). Typical summer day and total annual emissi**  **ons for Ohio mobile sources are presented in Tables 1-4.** 

**3.3.1 Onroad Mobile Emissions Onroad mobile source emissions were calculated by running US**  **EPA Motor Vehicle Emission Simulator version 2010b (MOVES2010b). MOVES2010b provid**  **es emissions estimates for pollutants including VOCs and NO**  **x from mobile sources under a wide range of user-define**  **d conditions. Ohio EPA relied on VMT data generated by**  **the Ohio DOT Office of Planning and Programming and Metropolitan Planning Organizations**  **(MPOs). Ohio DOT and MPOs used urban transportation planning methodologies approved by**  **the Federal Highway Administration to generate the necessary VMT estimates. MOVES2010b was r**  **un using area-specific input values where available and national average defaults i**  **n other cases. The nonattainment areas MPOs provided the nonattainment area county emissions for a t**  **ypical summer day as shown in Tables 1 and 2. Detailed reports and information on**  **the development of these emission estimates are available from the developing MPO in Appe**  **ndices G-I. Appendix J contains a list of the 2008 base year inventory onroad emissions by count**  **y and road type, with their respective VOC and NO**  **x**

**emissions.**

**Based on the estimated typical summer day emission presented in Tables 1 and 2, onroad**  **mobile emissions are the largest contributing sector of NO x**  **emissions in all three Ohio NAAs. Onroad mobile emissions are also the largest contributing se**  **ctor of VOC emissions in the Columbus and Cincinnati NAAs and the second largest contrib**  **uting sector of VOC emissions in the Cleveland-Akron-Lorain NAA based on typical summer**  **day emissions. State Implementation Plan**  **Page 9** 

**2008 Eight-Hour Ozone NAAQS Emissions Inventory & Emissio ns Statement**  **Ohio Environmental Protection Agency July 2014**  **3.3.2 Nonroad Mobile Emissions Nonroad mobile source emissions were calculated using the Non**  **road National Mobile Inventory Mode (NMIM) computer model and CONCEPT. Ohio EPA prep**  **ared the inputs to the NMIM model and provided them to LADCO and US EPA. LADCO**  **performed analysis using NMIM to generate emission rates for various off road equipment. L**  **ADCO had previously contracted consultants to develop local data used in NMIM 2008 for**  **agricultural equipment, construction equipment, commercial marine, recreational marine, and rail**  **roads (Environ, 2004, E.H. Pechan, 2004, and Environ, 2007a, 2007b). The emissions rates**  **were processed in CONCEPT and spatially/temporally allocated in specified grid cells. The**  **NMIM model does not include emission estimates for aircraft, locomotives and commercial**  **marine vessels.**

**The typical summer day emissions presented in Tables 1 and 2 sh ow nonroad emissions are**  **the largest contributing sector of VOC emissions and the se cond largest contributing sector of**  **NO x**  **in the Cleveland-Akron-Lorain NAA. Nonroad emissions are also the second largest**  **contributing sector of NO x**  **emissions in the Columbus NAA. Appendix K contains a list of the**  **nonroad sources included in the 2008 base year inventory b y SCC and county, with their**  **respective VOC and NO x**  **emissions.**

**Ohio EPA and LADCO prepared emission estimates for railro ad locomotives; commercial,**  **military and civil aircraft; and commercial vessels using sta te- and county-specific activity factors**  **and US EPA approved emission factors and data. The aircra ft, locomotives and commercial**  **marine vessels inventories are also processed in CONCEPT by LA DCO. The typical summer**  **day emission inventories for marine, aircraft and rail (M AR) are further described below.**  **Appendix L contains a list of the MAR sources included in the 2008 base year inventory by SCC**  **and County, with their respective VOC and NO x**  **emissions.**

**Marine 3.3.2.1**  **Marine fuel consumption in the LADCO region remained fai rly consistent between 2005 and**  **2008 (EERA et al., 2007). Therefore, the 2008 marine emissions are based on the 2005 LADCO**  **Base M inventory which was developed utilizing data previ ously prepared by a LADCO**  **contractor (Environ, 2007a). The data was then spatia lly and temporally allocated using the**  **LADCO CONCEPT model.**

**Aircraft 3.3.2.2**  **For inventory year 2008, US EPA contracted with the Ea stern Research Group (ERG) and**  **generated a detailed aircraft inventory for the entire nation. Ohio EPA provided the state**  **specific aircraft emission data (where available) for the 20 08 aircraft inventory. The Ohio airport**  **inventory accounted for 724 Airports, including, for the first time, emissions from gliderports,**  **heliports, sea plane bases, STOLports and ultra-light fi elds. However, airport specific**  **landing/take off (LTO) and engine type information n ecessary for calculating specific aircraft**  **emissions was only available for the large airports. There fore, two methods were used to**  **calculate the Ohio aircraft emissions inventory.**

**The ODOT tracks operations for towered and non-towered ai rports in Ohio. A landing or a take**  **off is considered an operation. Two operations make up o ne landing/take-off (LTO). Where**  **there was specific aircraft model data available emission factors were derived using the Federal**  **Aviation Administration (FAA) Emission Dispersion Modelin g System (EDMS). EDMS is a**  **combined emissions and dispersion model for assessing air qual ity at civilian airports and**  **military air bases. This portion of the aircraft emissions inventory was calculated by multiplying** **State Implementation Plan Page**  **10**

**2008 Eight-Hour Ozone NAAQS Emissions Inventory & Emissio ns Statement**  **Ohio Environmental Protection Agency July 2014**  **the number of LTOs per year by the EDMS emission factor . More information on the ODOT**  **tracking operations is available at:**

**www.dot.state.oh.us/aviation**

**For the majority of the remaining airports where air port specific LTO and aircraft engine type**  **information was not available, ERG used either regressi on equations to calculate the LTOs or**  **other documented procedures as explained in the followin g report:** 

**http://www.epa.gov/ttn/chief/net/2008_nei/aircraft_ report_final.pdf** 

**Ohio EPA thoroughly reviewed the 2008 ERG aircraft i nventory and it was considered**  **representative for Ohio. Emissions data was temporally an d spatially allocated by LADCO**  **using CONCEPT to generate typical summer day emissions.**

**Rail 3.3.2.3**  **Rail emissions for the 2008 inventory were developed by ER TAC. Previous inventory**  **development indicates that locomotives are the most impor tant source of NO**  **X**

**emissions from nonroad engines. Ohio is an important rail center in**  **the nation and ranking second in Midwestern rail activity after the State of Illinois.**  **The objective of developing an inventory through ERTAC was to standardize and improve data quali**  **ty calculations of railroad locomotives by creating a link-level, spatially and te**  **mporally allocated emission inventory.**

**The calculation of emissions for locomotives is similar to tha t of on-road mobile sources. Each**  **railroad company operates on certain rail lines. Each compa ny has a set of locomotives each**  **with a different emission factor. Based upon the mix of locomotives a company has, a weighted**  **emission factor for that company can be obtained. The fuel used by each company can then be**  **multiplied by the appropriate emission factor to obtai n an emission rate.** 

**The ERTAC Rail group used annual gross ton miles (GTM) a nd total amount of fuel used for**  **each railroad to calculate a railroad fuel consumption i ndex for each railroad in terms of**  **GTM/gallon fuel. The GTM for a given link was then d ivided by the average fuel consumption**  **index for all railroads on that link to obtain the fu el consumption for the link. In cases where**  **more than one railroad operated on the link, the resul ting average fuel consumption index was**  **the straight average of the number of railroads operati ng on the link. The fuel use was then**  **multiplied by the emission factor to obtain emissions fo r the link. Using a GIS, the links were**  **summed to the appropriate counties to obtain county leve l emissions. Daily emissions were**  **calculated by dividing the annual emissions by 365. More in formation regarding the ERTAC Rail**  **methodology is available at:**

**http://www.ertac.us/rail/index.html**

**Typical summer day emissions were provided by LADCO assuming typical day and typical**  **summer day emissions are equivalent.**

**3.4 Emission Inventory Quality Assurance**

**Standardized procedures were utilized for emissions calculatio ns. Emission estimates generally**  **followed the methodologies outlined in US EPA ’s emission inventory preparation guidance**  **document, Volumes I-IV and US EPA ’s “Reporting Guidance for 1996 Periodic Emissions**  **Inventories and National Emission Trends (NET) Inventor ies.” LADCO spatially and temporally** **State Implementation Plan Page**  **11**

**2008 Eight-Hour Ozone NAAQS Emissions Inventory & Emissio ns Statement**  **Ohio Environmental Protection Agency July 2014**  **processed the emissions data in accordance with US EPA guidan ce:” Guidelines on the Use of**  **Models and Other Analyses for Demonstrating Attainment of Air Quality Goals for Ozone,**  **PM2.5, and Regional Haze”, EPA -454/B07-002, April 2007.** 

**Starting with the 2008 inventory year, US EPA made sig nificant changes with their repository**  **system, National Emissions Inventory (NEI). The new NEI sy stem allows only quality assured**  **data to be entered. The Ohio EPA submitted XML files were quality assured in US EPA**  **’s QA environment and a number of corrections were needed to sa**  **tisfy US EPA ’s QA checks.**  **US EPA performs format and content checks on State files pri**  **or to accepting the files. Corrections were made to Ohio’s data to meet US**  **EPA’s strict reporting requirements and data files were submitted to US EPA by the deadline. A complex Java app**  **lication was developed to convert Ohio data form STARS2 into US EPA**  **’s NEI XML files. The State relies on this program to meet**  **future reporting requirements and any minor change w ith NEI requires a significant State**  **investment to modify the program to satisfy the change.**

**The same quality assured data was also submitted to LADCO for emissions processing through**  **CONCEPT. There was an exception for the Electric Genera ting Units (EGUs). The EGU**  **inventory is submitted by facilities to US EPA and it is compiled in US EPA**  **’s Acid Rain Program application. The EGU inventory is based on an analysis p**  **erformed by Ohio EPA on facility reported emissions as measured by continuous emissions monitors.**  **In conclusion, the final point source inventory is a hybrid of the federal EGU in**  **ventory and the state provided non-EGU units. Throughout the development of the 2008 base yea**  **r emissions inventory technical reviews and accuracy checks were performed.** **State Implementation Plan Page**  **12**

**2008 Eight-Hour Ozone NAAQS Emissions Inventory & Emissio ns Statement**  **Ohio Environmental Protection Agency July 2014**  **Table 1. 2008 VOC Typical Summer Day Emissions This table includes VOC emissions estimates developed for a**  **typical summer day in tons per day from all sectors in Ohio counties designated no**  **nattainment under the 2008 NAAQS for Ozone.** 

2008 LADCO TYPICAL SUMMER DAY EMISSIONS FROM NON ATTA INMENT COUNTY SECTORS
VOC (tpd)

NAA County/Area NON-EGU EGU AREA ONROAD NONROAD MAR TOTAL VOC

Ashtabula 12.41 0.00 2.74 3.67 15.03 0.22 34.07
Cuyahoga 2.44 0.00 42.59 41.99 54.35 0.41 141.78
Geauga 0.00 0.00 4.53 4.15 5.45 0.00 14.13

Lake 0.82 0.02 8.95 9.22 19.62 0.14 38.77

Lorain 2.21 0.18 8.76 11.71 20.08 0.21 43.15

Medina 0.61 0.00 6.22 7.86 5.88 0.05 20.62
Portage 0.70 0.00 4.50 6.72 8.64 0.11 20.67

Summit 0.78 0.00 18.52 21.23 13.35 0.10 53.98

Cleveland -AkronLorain NAA 19.97 0.20 96.81 106.55 142.40 1.24 367.17

Delaware 0.43 0.00 5.35 8.74 6.04 0.11 20.67

Fairfield 0.26 0.00 4.95 5.12 2.40 0.01 12.74

Franklin 1.67 0.00 35.49 94.25 22.53 0.22 154.16

Knox 0.00 0.00 3.01 1.76 1.72 0.00 6.49
Licking 0.30 0.00 6.86 10.03 3.85 0.01 21.05

Madison 0.07 0.00 2.12 3.51 1.52 0.02 7.24

Columbus NAA 2.73 0.00 57.78 123.41 38.06 0.37 222.35

Butler 2.87 0.03 11.61 10.32 6.66 0.13 31.62

Clermont 0.09 0.51 6.63 6.88 4.42 0.02 18.55

Clinton 0.00 0.00 2.33 2.51 1.73 0.00 6.57

Hamilton 1.91 0.27 28.14 30.30 16.86 0.26 77.74

Warren 0.89 0.00 5.54 7.78 4.92 0.01 19.14

Cincinnati NAA* 5.76 0.81 54.25 57.79 34.59 0.42 153.62

**Notes: tpd tons per day**  **NAA nonattainment** *** Cincinnati NAA does not include emissions from partial non-attainment counties**  **located outside of Ohio State Implementation Plan**  **Page 13** 

**2008 Eight-Hour Ozone NAAQS Emissions Inventory & Emissio ns Statement**  **Ohio Environmental Protection Agency July 2014**  **Table 2. 2008 NO x** 

**Typical Summer Day Emissions This table includes NO**  **x emissions estimates developed for a typical summer day in**  **tons per day from all sectors in Ohio counties designated no**  **nattainment under the 2008 NAAQS for Ozone.** 

2008 LADCO TYPICAL SUMMER DAY EMISSIONS FROM NON ATTA INMENT COUNTY SECTORS

NO X (tpd)

NAA County/Area NON-EGU EGU AREA ONROAD NONROAD MAR TOTAL NO X

Ashtabula 0.70 5.63 0.35 7.93 4.25 4.70 23.56
Cuyahoga 8.74 5.41 5.14 78.39 29.41 8.27 135.36
Geauga 0.00 0.00 0.75 8.14 2.61 0.00 11.50

Lake 2.05 32.74 1.18 19.01 7.66 2.94 65.58

Lorain 2.31 21.69 0.94 21.31 9.44 4.48 60.17

Medina 0.29 0.00 0.90 21.84 4.18 1.05 28.26
Portage 0.27 0.00 0.86 13.16 3.93 2.14 20.36

Summit 1.95 0.00 2.59 39.90 9.38 2.08 55.90

Cleveland -AkronLorain NAA 16.31 65.47 12.71 209.68 70.86 25.66 400.69

Delaware 0.05 0.00 0.63 19.00 6.01 2.12 27.81

Fairfield 4.21 0.00 0.51 11.52 3.86 0.12 20.22

Franklin 1.67 0.00 3.78 168.46 22.93 3.99 200.83

Knox 0.10 0.00 0.24 3.94 1.95 0.03 6.26
Licking 1.52 0.00 0.62 20.84 3.67 0.17 26.82

Madison 0.01 0.00 0.24 7.96 2.30 0.36 10.87

Columbus NAA 7.56 0.00 6.02 231.72 40.72 6.79 292.81

Butler 12.53 3.17 0.99 18.76 7.47 2.51 45.43

Clermont 0.17 65.54 0.76 12.50 3.95 0.87 83.79

Clinton 0.00 0.00 0.36 5.50 2.00 0.10 7.96

Hamilton 7.83 30.64 4.19 55.08 15.25 5.53 118.52

Warren 3.80 0.00 0.87 14.14 5.67 0.28 24.76

Cincinnati NAA* 24.33 99.35 7.17 105.98 34.34 9.29 280.46

**Notes: tpd tons per day**  **NAA nonattainment area** *** Cincinnati NAA does not include emissions from partial non-attainment counties**  **located outside of Ohio State Implementation Plan**  **Page 14** 

**2008 Eight-Hour Ozone NAAQS Emissions Inventory & Emissio ns Statement**  **Ohio Environmental Protection Agency July 2014**  **Table 3. 2008 VOC Total Annual Emissions This table includes VOC emissions estimates developed for a**  **typical summer day in tons per day from all sectors in Ohio counties designated no**  **nattainment under the 2008 NAAQS for Ozone.** 

2008 LADCO TOTAL ANNUAL EMISSIONS FROM NON ATTAINMENT COUNTY SECTORS
VOC (tpy)

NAA County/Area NON-EGU EGU AREA ONROAD NONROAD MAR TOTAL VOC

Ashtabula 4470.93 0.20 1343.60 1327.34 2704.97 70.51 9917.55
Cuyahoga 873.80 0.17 16798.79 13544.41 11062.21 138.18 42417.56
Geauga 0.00 0.00 1721.91 891.38 1339.58 0.03 3952.90

Lake 290.41 4.79 3462.76 2130.40 3406.21 48.09 9342.66

Lorain 752.12 51.69 3445.68 2759.07 3681.89 72.74 10763.19

Medina 215.67 0.00 2401.78 1793.48 1389.98 17.94 5818.85
Portage 253.12 0.00 1784.73 1835.85 1800.31 40.51 5714.52

Summit 279.96 0.00 7292.82 5420.09 3055.54 37.48 16085.89

Cleveland -AkronLorain NAA 7136.01 56.85 38252.07 29702.02 28440.69 425.48 104013.12

Delaware 142.44 0.00 2084.80 1369.67 1346.76 40.45 4984.12

Fairfield 92.04 0.00 1931.29 1324.74 572.66 1.96 3922.69

Franklin 598.93 0.00 14157.34 12668.64 5410.72 81.02 32916.65

Knox 0.00 0.00 1278.75 577.20 372.10 0.35 2228.40
Licking 108.95 0.00 2645.67 1833.66 853.92 2.34 5444.54

Madison 24.02 0.00 805.07 803.65 345.70 7.26 1985.70

Columbus NAA 966.38 0.00 22902.92 18577.56 8901.86 133.38 51482.10

Butler 1018.67 5.69 4527.08 2689.85 1605.05 48.43 9894.77

Clermont 32.44 168.12 2575.10 1699.44 1005.48 5.18 5485.76

Clinton 0.00 0.00 993.27 559.80 381.95 1.33 1936.35

Hamilton 671.93 98.30 11064.69 9001.36 4063.79 91.42 24991.49

Warren 292.79 0.00 2178.41 1403.74 1133.26 4.81 5013.01

Cincinnati NAA* 2015.83 272.11 21338.55 15354.19 8189.53 151.17 47321.38

**Notes: tpy tons per year**  **NAA nonattainment area** *** Cincinnati NAA does not include emissions from partial non-attainment counties**  **located outside of Ohio State Implementation Plan**  **Page 15** 

**2008 Eight-Hour Ozone NAAQS Emissions Inventory & Emissio ns Statement**  **Ohio Environmental Protection Agency July 2014**  **Table 4. 2008 NO x**  **Total Annual Emissions This table includes NO**  **x emissions estimates developed for a typical summer day in**  **tons per day from all sectors in Ohio counties designated no**  **nattainment under the 2008 NAAQS for Ozone.** 

2008 LADCO TOTAL ANNUAL EMISSIONS FROM NON ATTAINMENT COUNTY SECTORS

NO X (tpy)

NAA County/Area NON-EGU EGU AREA ONROAD NONROAD MAR TOTAL NO X

Ashtabula 258.95 1463.15 306.68 3788.98 1055.91 1513.24 8386.91
Cuyahoga 3106.53 1674.57 4438.42 31729.66 8136.17 2747.63 51832.98
Geauga 0.00 0.00 384.30 2346.92 759.51 0.88 3491.61

Lake 722.68 10425.10 805.18 5442.55 1870.59 999.07 20265.17

Lorain 817.83 5577.70 745.02 6523.05 2503.32 1513.69 17680.61

Medina 100.33 0.00 539.28 5460.96 1292.43 380.91 7773.91
Portage 87.24 0.00 510.12 5709.05 1182.19 773.11 8261.71

Summit 674.73 0.00 1919.64 13277.01 2947.01 754.03 19572.42

Cleveland -AkronLorain NAA 5768.29 19140.52 9648.64 74278.18 19747.13 8682.56 137265.32

Delaware 19.03 0.00 395.05 3490.70 1872.05 767.70 6544.53

Fairfield 1526.01 0.00 335.34 2842.30 1190.18 41.71 5935.54

Franklin 582.10 0.00 3225.28 26113.38 7306.02 1443.55 38670.33

Knox 35.05 0.00 168.31 1266.97 565.91 9.36 2045.60
Licking 542.86 0.00 411.61 4752.48 1104.17 63.26 6874.38

Madison 4.99 0.00 128.74 2644.50 635.85 130.91 3544.99

Columbus NAA 2710.04 0.00 4664.33 41110.33 12674.18 2456.49 63615.37

Butler 4108.89 838.17 703.08 6070.45 2343.53 909.45 14973.57

Clermont 61.78 24110.39 450.23 4124.55 1215.80 232.43 30195.18

Clinton 0.00 0.00 196.32 1700.00 551.97 36.12 2484.41

Hamilton 2803.80 12376.78 2909.18 21335.17 4835.11 1828.87 46088.91

Warren 1077.03 0.00 493.53 3905.97 1786.32 101.02 7363.87

Cincinnati NAA* 8051.50 37325.34 4752.34 37136.14 10732.73 3107.89 101105.94

**Notes: tpy tons per year**  **NAA nonattainment area** *** Cincinnati NAA does not include emissions from partial n on-attainment counties**  **located outside of Ohio State Implementation Plan**  **Page 16** 

**2008 Eight-Hour Ozone NAAQS Emissions Inventory & Emissio ns Statement**  **Ohio Environmental Protection Agency July 2014**  **4 Source Emission Statement**

**Marginal areas are required to submit an emissions statement u nder Section 182(a)(3)(B) of the**  **CAA (78 FR 34202)**

. **The emission statement must: ‘‘. . . require that the owner**  **or operator of each stationary source of oxides of nitrogen or volatile**  **organic compounds provide the state with a statement, in such form as the Administrator may pre**  **scribe (or an equivalent alternative developed by the state), for classes or categories of sources**  **, showing the actual emissions of oxides of nitrogen and volatile organic compounds from t**  **hat source. The first such statement shall be submitted within 3 years after the date of the**  **enactment of the CAA Amendments of 1990. Subsequent statements shall be submitted at least**  **every year thereafter. The statement shall contain a certification that the information contai**  **ned in the statement is accurate to the best knowledge of the individual certi**  **fying the statement” (78 FR 34202). The US EPA has**  **proposed that this SIP submittal of the emissions statement program be due 2 years after the**  **effective date of designations (78 FR 34203).**

**In July 1992, US EPA published a guidance memorandum on source emission statements titled,**  **‘Guidance on the Implementation of an Emission Stateme nt Program.’**  **Further guidance was provided to clarify the source emission statement requiremen**  **ts were applicable to all areas designated nonattainment for the 1997 ozone NAAQS and**  **classified as Marginal or higher under subpart 2, part D, title I of the CAAA. The Pr**  **oposed Implementation Rule similarly applies the**  **memorandum ‘‘Emission Statement Requirements Under 8 -hour Ozone NAAQS**  **Implementation,’’ dated March 14, 2006, to all areas designated nonattainment for the 2008**  **ozone NAAQS and classified as Marginal or higher under su bpart 2 (78 FR 34202).** 

**All of the Ohio 2008 Ozone NAAQS nonattainment areas h ave an emissions statement program**  **in place due to historic nonattainment designations for a n earlier ozone NAAQS. The Proposed**  **Implementation Rule indicates that “if an area has a previously approved emission statement**  **rule in force for the 1997 ozone NAAQS or the 1-hour oz one NAAQS that covers all portions of**  **the nonattainment area for the 2008 ozone NAAQS, such rule should be sufficient for purposes**  **of the emissions statement requirement for the 2008 ozon e NAAQS. The state should review**  **the existing rule to ensure it is adequate and, if it is, may rely on it to meet the emission**  **statement requirement for the 2008 ozone NAAQS ”**  **(78 FR 34203).**

**Ohio EPA has the authority under OAC Chapter 3745-24 to request NO**  **x and VOC Emission**  **Statements, which applies to any facility located in a county that is out of attainment for the**  **NAAQS for ozone and emits greater than or equal to 25 tons per year of VOC or NO**  **x during the**  **reporting year. In general, facilities subject to this requirement must submit actual emissions**  **data for NO x** 

**and VOC. OAC Chapter 3745-24 is available at:**

**http://www.epa.ohio.gov/dapc/regs/3745_24.aspx**

**.**
**Ohio’s current emission statement program was approved by US EPA into Ohio’s SIP on**  **September 27, 2007 (72 FR 54844). State Implementation Plan**  **Page 17** 

**2008 Eight-Hour Ozone NAAQS Emissions Inventory & Emissio ns Statement**  **Ohio Environmental Protection Agency July 2014**  **5 Projected Emissions Modeling**



### US EPA provided 2015 design value estimates for hypotheti **cal 8-hour ozone nonattainment areas for the 2008 Ozone NAAQS. The proje**  **cted 2015 design values were presented as supporting material for the rules to imp**  **lement the 8-hour Ozone NAAQS. The projections were developed using measured 2008**  **-2010 design value information from the Cross State Air Pollution Rule (CSA**  **PR) final rule modeling. The original CSAPR modeling made projections for 2014 using**  **a base year of 2005 (a 9- year projection). The percentage change of ozone over the**  **modeled 9 year period was apportioned to develop estimates for the projected change**  **in ozone between the measured 2008-2010 period and the 2015 Marginal attain**  **ment demonstration year. The results of this analysis are presented in Table 5. The high**  **est design value for each nonattainment area based on actual measured data is prese**  **nted for the 2008-2010 period. The highest projected values for the year 2015 are**  **also presented for each of the three Ohio designated NAAs. All three Ohio areas are p**  **rojected to attain the 2008 Ozone NAAQS by the year 2015. The spreadsheets and met**  **hodology for these projections are included in Appendix M (US EPA, 2012).** 

**Table 5. US EPA Projected 2015 Ozone Design Values This table shows the projected ozone design values in the**  **three Ohio 2008 NAAQS nonattainment areas. All three nonattainment areas are p**  **rojected to be in attainment by 2015.** 
**State 2008 Ozone NAAQS Nonattainment** 

**Area Name Area**  **Classification Highest** 

**Measured 2008-**  **2010 Ozone Design**  **Value Highest** 

**Projected 2015 Ozone**  **Design Value**  **Projected**

**to Attain by 2015?** 



### Ohio **Cincinnati**

Ǧ **Hamilton, OH-KY-IN Marginal**  **79 74**  **Yes**
**Ohio Cleveland** 

Ǧ **Akron**

Ǧ **Lorain, OH Marginal**  **77 72.2**  **Yes**
**Ohio Columbus, OH**  **Marginal 77**  **71.3 Yes**  **Adapted from "Spreadsheet estimates 2015 design valu es for hypothetical 8-hour ozone nonattainment**  **areas for the 75 ppb NAAQS for the purpose of estimati ng the number of marginal nonattainment areas**  **that are expected to attain the NAAQS by their attai nment date (2015)" EPA-HQ-OAR-2010-0885-0011** **State Implementation Plan Page**  **18**

**2008 Eight-Hour Ozone NAAQS Emissions Inventory & Emissio ns Statement**  **Ohio Environmental Protection Agency July 2014**  **6 References**

**Energy and Environmental Research Associates (EERA), LLC , Comer, B., Corbett. J.,**  **Silberman, J., Alpine Geophysics, Stella, G., 2011. “Commercial Marine Emissions in the**  **LADCO Region Final Repo rt”**  **. Final. September 2011.**

**E.H. Pechan, 2004. “LADCO Nonroad Emissions Inventory Project –**  **Development of Local Data for Construct**  **ion and Agricultural Equipment”, Final Report. September 10, 2004** 

**Environ, 2004. “LADCO Nonroad Emissions Inventory Proj**  **ect for Locomotive, Commercial Marine, and Recreational Marine Emission Sources**  **”, Final Report. December 2004.** 

**Environ, 2007a. “LADCO 2005 Locomotive Emissions”, Draft.**  **February 2007.**

**Environ, 2007b. “LADCO 2005 Commercial Marine Emissions”, Draft**  **. March 2, 2007.**

**US EPA, 2012. “ Spreadsheet estimates 2015 design values for hypotheti**  **cal 8-hour ozone nonattainment areas for the 75 ppb NAAQS for the purp**  **ose of estimating the number of marginal nonattainment areas that are expected to attain**  **the NAAQS by their attainment date (2015)". February 14, 2012.**