Summary LCC Results for North Region

2011 Furnace 

DFR

16 year Fixed 

Lifetime

No Learning 

Curve

Replacement and New Construction

90% AFUE - Condensing Design $155 $72 $148

92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $215 $110 $206

95% AFUE - Increased HX Area $323 $160 $302

98% AFUE - Max Tech $198 -$5 $151

Replacement (75% of Shipments)

90% AFUE - Condensing Design $90 $12 $84

92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $151 $50 $142

95% AFUE - Increased HX Area $262 $104 $242

98% AFUE - Max Tech $158 -$41 $113

New Construction (25% of Shipments)

90% AFUE - Condensing Design $343 $250 $335

92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $404 $286 $393

95% AFUE - Increased HX Area $502 $325 $478

98% AFUE - Max Tech $315 $100 $260

Case Description

CASE 1:

Fixed Furnace Lifetime of 16 years

No Learning Curve

APGA Installation Costs

2007 Furnace Final Rule Venting Weights

AEO 2011 Reference Case

CASE 2:

Apply Case 1

AEO 2011 High Shale Case

CASE 3:

Apply Case 1

See "APGA Inst. Costs" worksheet.

(*) No changes, since the 2011 Furnace DRF LCC analysis used simila

worksheet).

Replaced regional AEO 2010 Reference Case prices with regional AE

Trends" in LCC Spreadsheet). See "AEO Energy Price Trends" worksh

Replaced regional AEO 2011 Reference Case prices with regional AE

Price Trends" in LCC Spreadsheet). See "AEO Energy Price Trends" w

Applied Case 1 as described above.

Applied Case 1 as described above.

Replaced LCC lifetime distribution (cell D5 in "lifetime" worksheet in 

Replaced learning curve price factor index (cell D99 in "Equip Price" 

Implementation
Electric Water Heater replacement of 10% of 

Orphaned Water Heaters

CASE 4:

Apply Case 1

No Chimney Relining

Applied randomly to 10% of Orphaned Water Heaters. DOE used av

2010 Water Heating Final Rule (http://www1.eere.energy.gov/build

the average total installed cost of switching to an electric storage w

($848) for a new gas storage water heater (GSWH), switching only o

cost of a GSWH ($2019) includes the total installed cost of the wate

switching to an ESWH ($1005) includes both the total installed cost 

On average, the consumer will see a total installed cost savings of ($

difference between gas and electric water heater. The operating co

GSWH and multiplying the use by the appropriate energy prices. The 

consumption of 44 gallons/day and a baseline efficiency of 0.95 EF; 

with a baseline efficiency of 0.62 EF (the energy efficiency standard 

MMBtu/year for GSWHs.

Applied Case 1 as described above.

Set Chimney Relining variable (cell F13 in "Installation Cost" workshe
APGA 

Installation 

Costs

2007 Final 

Rule Venting 

Fractions*

AEO 2011 

Reference 

Case

AEO 2011 High 

Shale Case

Electric WH 

Switching for 

Orphaned 

WHs No Relining CASE 1

$168 - $127 $98 $148 $141 $62

$229 - $180 $143 $208 $202 $91

$337 - $268 $212 $316 $310 $115

$211 - $134 $53 $191 $185 ($85)

$111 - $63 $34 $87 $73 $9

$171 - $116 $79 $147 $133 $39

$282 - $207 $151 $259 $244 $67

$178 - $93 $13 $154 $140 ($112)

$337 - $316 $286 $327 $343 $217

$398 - $370 $330 $388 $404 $245

$496 - $448 $390 $486 $502 $257

$309 - $254 $171 $298 $315 ($8)

* See cell b27 below for note.

ace DRF LCC analysis used similar weights as in 2007 Final Rule. (see "Venting Fraction Comparison" 

nce Case prices with regional AEO 2011 Reference Case prices (cells BH9:DB40 in worksheet "Energy Price 

EO Energy Price Trends" worksheet.

nce Case prices with regional AEO 2011 High Shale EUR Case prices (cells BH9:DB40 in worksheet "Energy 

ee "AEO Energy Price Trends" worksheet.

LCC Savings Comparison vs. 2011 Furnace DFR Results

ell D5 in "lifetime" worksheet in LCC spreadsheet) with a fixed value of 16 years.

 index (cell D99 in "Equip Price" worksheet in LCC spreadsheet) with 1 to represent no learning trends.
ed Water Heaters. DOE used average equipment prices, installation costs, and energy use values from the 

://www1.eere.energy.gov/buildings/appliance_standards/residential/heating_products_fr.html). Because 

witching to an electric storage water heater (ESWH) ($1,005) is higher than the average cost of relining 

heater (GSWH), switching only occurs when the GSWH is at the end of its useful life. The average installed 

e total installed cost of the water heater ($1,171) plus the cost of relining($848). The total installed cost of 

des both the total installed cost of the water heater ($710) plus the cost of adding electrical service ($295). 

 total installed cost savings of ($1,014) when switching to an ESWH. But this is offset by the operating cost 

 water heater. The operating cost is determined by calculating the average energy use for both ESWH and 

e appropriate energy prices. The average energy use for a ESWH is based on the average water 

a baseline efficiency of 0.95 EF; for GSWH the same average water consumption of 44 gallons/day is used 

(the energy efficiency standard in 2016). This results in 2,678 kWh/year for ESWH compared to 15.4 

13 in "Installation Cost" worksheet in LCC Spreadsheet) equal to 0.
CASE 2 CASE 3 CASE 4

$42 $61 $48

$66 $90 $77

$76 $114 $101

($142) ($87) ($99)

($11) $10 ($9)

$14 $40 $21

$28 $68 $48

($168) ($111) ($130)

$197 $209 $217

$219 $236 $245

$216 $248 $257

($67) ($17) ($8)

Cases as Requested by APGA
2011 Furnace DFR LCC Results

Simulation Results NATIONAL - 10000 samples

Installed Lifetime LCC Net

Level Description Price Oper. Cost* LCC Savings Cost

NWGF

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $1,786 $9,551 $11,337

1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $2,357 $8,621 $10,978 $87 25% 

2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,419 $8,456 $10,875 $136 26% 

3 95% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,564 $8,220 $10,785 $205 36% 

4 98% AFUE - Max Tech $2,830 $8,114 $10,944 $46 64% 

MHGF

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $1,432 $11,749 $13,181

1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $2,040 $10,712 $12,753 $388 44% 

2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,248 $10,503 $12,751 $389 47% 

3 96% AFUE - Max Tech $2,540 $10,110 $12,650 $486 50% 

OF

0 82% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,008 $30,287 $33,295

1 83% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,157 $29,946 $33,103 $15 10% 

2 84% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,394 $29,613 $33,007 -$13 24% 

3 85% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,622 $29,287 $32,909 -$18 35% 

4 97% AFUE - Max Tech $4,810 $27,809 $32,619 $272 51% 

All dollar values are in 2009 $ * discounted and summed over lifetime of equipment

Simulation Results NORTH

Installed Lifetime LCC Net

Level Description Price Oper. Cost* LCC Savings Cost

NWGF 5,986

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $1,901 $11,553 $13,454

1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $2,474 $10,409 $12,883 $155 10% 

2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,536 $10,206 $12,742 $215 11% 

3 95% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,685 $9,916 $12,601 $323 23% 

4 98% AFUE - Max Tech $2,943 $9,784 $12,727 $198 59% 

MHGF 4,892

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $1,488 $13,060 $14,548

1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $2,112 $11,974 $14,086 $419 44% 

2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,318 $11,740 $14,058 $444 46% 

3 96% AFUE - Max Tech $2,611 $11,301 $13,912 $585 49% 

OF 8,939

0 82% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,063 $30,842 $33,905

1 83% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,216 $30,495 $33,711 $14 10% 

2 84% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,460 $30,156 $33,616 -$17 25% 

3 85% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,692 $29,824 $33,516 -$21 35% 

4 97% AFUE - Max Tech $4,897 $28,331 $33,228 $267 51% 

Average LCC Results

Average LCC Results
All dollar values are in 2009 $ * discounted and summed over lifetime of equipment

Simulation Results SOUTH

Installed Lifetime LCC Net

Level Description Price Oper. Cost* LCC Savings Cost

NWGF 4,014

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $1,614 $6,566 $8,180

1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $2,182 $5,955 $8,137 -$13 48% 

2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,244 $5,846 $8,090 $19 48% 

3 95% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,384 $5,692 $8,076 $28 56% 

4 98% AFUE - Max Tech $2,661 $5,624 $8,286 -$181 72% 

MHGF 5,108

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $1,340 $11,453 $12,793

1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $1,916 $10,366 $12,282 $357 44% 

2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,124 $10,162 $12,287 $336 47% 

3 96% AFUE - Max Tech $2,415 $9,780 $12,194 $391 51% 

OF 1,061

0 82% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,549 $25,606 $28,154

1 83% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,656 $25,319 $27,975 $24 8% 

2 84% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,832 $25,038 $27,870 $21 22% 

3 85% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,027 $24,764 $27,791 $14 33% 

4 97% AFUE - Max Tech $4,074 $23,413 $27,487 $308 51% 

All dollar values are in 2009 $ * discounted and summed over lifetime of equipment

Average LCC Results
AEO 2010 - Reference Case Simulation Results NATIONAL - Replacements

Payback Results

No Net Installed

Impact Benefit Median Average Level Description Price

NWGF

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $1,590

52% 22% 15.8 33.6 1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $2,357

42% 32% 11.9 28.2 2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,417

17% 47% 11.7 24.2 3 95% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,556

0% 35% 20.1 44.2 4 98% AFUE - Max Tech $2,802

MHGF

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $1,216

10% 47% 10.5 17.9 1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $1,870

8% 46% 11.6 19.2 2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,097

4% 47% 11.9 19.2 3 96% AFUE - Max Tech $2,385

OF

0 82% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,846

58% 32% 1.0 23.9 1 83% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,986

39% 37% 1.9 33.8 2 84% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,253

33% 32% 19.8 33.5 3 85% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,509

1% 48% 18.2 48.2 4 97% AFUE - Max Tech $4,828

All dollar values are in 2009 $

AEO 2010 - Reference Case Simulation Results NORTH - Replacements

Payback Results

No Net Installed

Impact Benefit Median Average Level Description Price

NWGF 4,465

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $1,713

71% 19% 10.1 12.8 1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $2,483

56% 33% 7.7 10.1 2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,543

23% 54% 9.4 11.3 3 95% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,687

1% 41% 17.1 28.2 4 98% AFUE - Max Tech $2,925

MHGF 2,451

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $1,413

10% 47% 10.7 17.2 1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $2,166

8% 46% 11.4 17.5 2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,410

3% 48% 11.5 16.6 3 96% AFUE - Max Tech $2,727

OF 8,033

0 82% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,896

58% 32% 1.0 24.4 1 83% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,041

39% 37% 2.0 34.9 2 84% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,317

33% 32% 20.0 34.4 3 85% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,577

1% 48% 18.2 48.8 4 97% AFUE - Max Tech $4,918
All dollar values are in 2009 $

AEO 2010 - Reference Case Simulation Results SOUTH - Replacements

Payback Results

No Net Installed

Impact Benefit Median Average Level Description Price

NWGF 3,044

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $1,411

24% 28% 24.1 45.4 1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $2,173

20% 32% 21.3 42.9 2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,231

8% 36% 20.5 40.3 3 95% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,365

0% 27% 28.9 67.5 4 98% AFUE - Max Tech $2,623

MHGF 2,547

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $1,026

10% 47% 10.3 18.5 1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $1,586

8% 45% 11.8 20.9 2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $1,796

4% 45% 12.4 21.7 3 96% AFUE - Max Tech $2,056

OF 967

0 82% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,430

60% 32% 1.1 19.6 1 83% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,531

39% 39% 1.5 24.8 2 84% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,726

33% 34% 17.2 26.2 3 85% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,942

1% 48% 18.2 43.8 4 97% AFUE - Max Tech $4,082

All dollar values are in 2009 $
AEO 2010 - Reference Case

Payback Results

Lifetime LCC Net No Net

Oper. Cost* LCC Savings Cost Impact Benefit Median Average

$9,441 $11,031

$8,522 $10,879 -$11 31% 52% 17% 21.1 41.6 

$8,358 $10,774 $39 32% 42% 27% 15.3 34.3 

$8,125 $10,681 $111 41% 17% 42% 13.0 27.5 

$8,017 $10,819 -$26 67% 0% 32% 20.7 45.4 

$11,552 $12,768

$10,516 $12,387 $258 46% 9% 37% 11.8 19.8 

$10,309 $12,407 $224 50% 7% 36% 13.0 21.7 

$9,920 $12,305 $294 52% 3% 37% 13.0 21.2 

$30,279 $33,124

$29,937 $32,924 $10 10% 58% 32% 0.9 24.6 

$29,604 $32,858 -$48 27% 39% 35% 2.0 37.0 

$29,279 $32,788 -$79 38% 33% 29% 22.5 37.0 

$27,807 $32,635 $75 55% 1% 44% 20.0 52.7 

* discounted and summed over lifetime of equipment

AEO 2010 - Reference Case

Payback Results

Lifetime LCC Net No Net

Oper. Cost* LCC Savings Cost Impact Benefit Median Average

$11,464 $13,177

$10,328 $12,811 $90 13% 72% 16% 12.9 15.9 

$10,126 $12,669 $151 13% 57% 30% 9.0 11.7 

$9,838 $12,524 $262 25% 23% 52% 9.7 11.9 

$9,704 $12,629 $158 60% 1% 39% 16.9 26.5 

$12,797 $14,210

$11,718 $13,884 $299 51% 9% 40% 11.9 18.7 

$11,489 $13,899 $284 54% 7% 39% 12.9 19.6 

$11,057 $13,785 $395 56% 3% 41% 12.6 18.4 

$30,849 $33,745

$30,501 $33,542 $8 10% 58% 32% 0.9 25.1 

$30,162 $33,478 -$53 27% 39% 34% 2.2 38.2 

$29,830 $33,407 -$86 39% 33% 28% 22.7 38.0 

$28,340 $33,258 $66 55% 1% 44% 20.1 53.3 

Average LCC Results

Average LCC Results
* discounted and summed over lifetime of equipment

AEO 2010 - Reference Case

Payback Results

Lifetime LCC Net No Net

Oper. Cost* LCC Savings Cost Impact Benefit Median Average

$6,474 $7,884

$5,872 $8,045 -$160 59% 23% 18% 31.8 55.5 

$5,765 $7,996 -$125 59% 19% 22% 27.9 51.9 

$5,612 $7,977 -$110 65% 8% 27% 25.5 46.7 

$5,542 $8,164 -$297 77% 0% 22% 32.2 72.6 

$10,355 $11,381

$9,360 $10,946 $218 41% 8% 34% 11.6 20.9 

$9,174 $10,970 $166 45% 6% 32% 13.4 23.7 

$8,826 $10,881 $196 48% 3% 33% 13.7 23.8 

$25,541 $27,971

$25,254 $27,785 $21 9% 59% 32% 1.0 20.3 

$24,974 $27,700 $0 24% 39% 37% 1.4 26.9 

$24,701 $27,643 -$27 37% 32% 31% 20.0 28.5 

$23,379 $27,461 $150 55% 1% 44% 19.8 47.9 

* discounted and summed over lifetime of equipment

Average LCC Results
Simulation Results NATIONAL - New Construction

Installed Lifetime LCC Net No

Level Description Price Oper. Cost* LCC Savings Cost Impact

NWGF

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,374 $9,885 $12,259

1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $2,355 $8,922 $11,277 $383 7% 53% 

2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,425 $8,751 $11,176 $429 9% 42% 

3 95% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,589 $8,508 $11,097 $487 21% 17% 

4 98% AFUE - Max Tech $2,913 $8,408 $11,320 $264 55% 1% 

MHGF

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,727 $20,743 $23,470

1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $3,621 $18,879 $22,500 $877 37% 10% 

2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,928 $18,512 $22,439 $933 40% 8% 

3 96% AFUE - Max Tech $4,424 $17,822 $22,247 $1,119 43% 4% 

OF

0 82% AFUE - Increased HX Area $4,471 $30,362 $34,832

1 83% AFUE - Increased HX Area $4,690 $30,021 $34,711 $60 12% 57% 

2 84% AFUE - Increased HX Area $4,659 $29,689 $34,348 $297 3% 39% 

3 85% AFUE - Increased HX Area $4,637 $29,364 $34,000 $540 1% 33% 

4 97% AFUE - Max Tech $4,646 $27,829 $32,475 $2,041 12% 1% 

All dollar values are in 2009 $ * discounted and summed over lifetime of equipment

Simulation Results NORTH - New Construction

Installed Lifetime LCC Net No

Level Description Price Oper. Cost* LCC Savings Cost Impact

NWGF 1,521

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,452 $11,815 $14,268

1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $2,447 $10,647 $13,094 $343 2% 70% 

2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,516 $10,440 $12,956 $404 4% 55% 

3 95% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,680 $10,145 $12,825 $502 16% 23% 

4 98% AFUE - Max Tech $2,996 $10,017 $13,012 $315 55% 1% 

MHGF 2,441

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $1,562 $13,325 $14,887

1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $2,058 $12,231 $14,289 $540 36% 10% 

2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,225 $11,993 $14,218 $606 38% 9% 

3 96% AFUE - Max Tech $2,494 $11,546 $14,040 $776 41% 4% 

OF 906

0 82% AFUE - Increased HX Area $4,543 $30,786 $35,329

1 83% AFUE - Increased HX Area $4,767 $30,441 $35,208 $61 13% 56% 

2 84% AFUE - Increased HX Area $4,735 $30,103 $34,838 $304 4% 39% 

3 85% AFUE - Increased HX Area $4,713 $29,774 $34,486 $550 1% 33% 

4 97% AFUE - Max Tech $4,713 $28,251 $32,964 $2,052 13% 1% 

Average LCC Results

Average LCC Results
All dollar values are in 2009 $ * discounted and summed over lifetime of equipment

Simulation Results SOUTH - New Construction

Installed Lifetime LCC Net No

Level Description (EF value at 40 Gallon) Price Oper. Cost* LCC Savings Cost Impact

NWGF 970

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,252 $6,857 $9,109

1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $2,211 $6,216 $8,428 $445 14% 27% 

2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,283 $6,103 $8,386 $469 16% 23% 

3 95% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,447 $5,942 $8,388 $463 28% 8% 

4 98% AFUE - Max Tech $2,782 $5,885 $8,667 $184 56% 0% 

MHGF 2,561

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,837 $27,815 $31,652

1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $5,112 $25,215 $30,327 $1,198 38% 9% 

2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $5,551 $24,725 $30,276 $1,245 41% 8% 

3 96% AFUE - Max Tech $6,264 $23,805 $30,069 $1,445 45% 4% 

OF 94

0 82% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,773 $26,274 $30,047

1 83% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,946 $25,980 $29,926 $48 6% 65% 

2 84% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,928 $25,694 $29,621 $234 0% 41% 

3 85% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,904 $25,414 $29,318 $437 0% 35% 

4 97% AFUE - Max Tech $4,001 $23,761 $27,762 $1,940 5% 2% 

All dollar values are in 2009 $ * discounted and summed over lifetime of equipment

Average LCC Results
AEO 2010 - Reference Case

Payback Results

Net

Benefit Median Average

40% 0.0 9.0 

49% 3.7 9.5 

62% 8.4 14.3 

44% 18.2 40.4 

53% 9.3 15.9 

52% 10.1 16.7 

53% 10.9 17.2 

31% 12.6 17.4 

58% 1.4 5.0 

66% 0.9 2.4 

87% 0.0 7.1 

AEO 2010 - Reference Case

Payback Results

Net

Benefit Median Average

27% 2.5 4.3 

41% 5.1 5.5 

61% 8.8 9.8 

44% 17.9 33.3 

54% 9.1 15.6 

53% 9.8 15.3 

55% 10.4 14.8 

31% 12.9 17.9 

58% 1.4 5.2 

66% 1.0 2.5 

86% 0.0 7.5 
AEO 2010 - Reference Case

Payback Results

Net

Benefit Median Average

59% 0.0 12.0 

61% 0.3 13.3 

63% 7.1 20.2 

43% 18.9 51.3 

53% 9.5 16.1 

51% 10.6 18.0 

51% 11.6 19.5 

29% 8.3 11.5 

59% 1.5 2.7 

65% 0.9 1.3 

93% 0.0 3.7 
Case 1

APGA Request: 16 year lifetime, No learning curve, APGA Installation Costs, and AEO 2011 Ref

Simulation Results NATIONAL - 10000 samples

Installed Lifetime LCC Net

Level Description Price Oper. Cost* LCC Savings Cost

NWGF

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $1,916 $6,578 $8,494

1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $2,459 $5,942 $8,401 -$7 28% 

2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,528 $5,828 $8,356 $11 30% 

3 95% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,689 $5,667 $8,356 $7 47% 

4 98% AFUE - Max Tech $2,982 $5,598 $8,581 -$216 78% 

MHGF

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $1,518 $11,487 $13,005

1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $2,151 $10,463 $12,613 $355 46% 

2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,371 $10,258 $12,629 $339 50% 

3 96% AFUE - Max Tech $2,674 $9,874 $12,548 $417 53% 

OF

0 82% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,238 $29,582 $32,821

1 83% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,394 $29,249 $32,643 $5 10% 

2 84% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,631 $28,924 $32,555 -$27 25% 

3 85% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,853 $28,606 $32,460 -$31 35% 

4 97% AFUE - Max Tech $5,087 $27,192 $32,279 $151 53% 

All dollar values are in 2009 $ * discounted and summed over lifetime of equipment

Simulation Results NORTH

Installed Lifetime LCC Net

Level Description Price Oper. Cost* LCC Savings Cost

NWGF 5,986

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,024 $7,871 $9,896

1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $2,573 $7,098 $9,670 $62 13% 

2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,642 $6,960 $9,601 $91 15% 

3 95% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,806 $6,763 $9,570 $115 36% 

4 98% AFUE - Max Tech $3,091 $6,681 $9,771 -$85 76% 

MHGF 4,892

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $1,573 $12,768 $14,342

1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $2,222 $11,690 $13,912 $391 47% 

2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,445 $11,461 $13,906 $397 50% 

3 96% AFUE - Max Tech $2,746 $11,031 $13,777 $520 53% 

OF 8,939

0 82% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,295 $30,144 $33,438

1 83% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,455 $29,804 $33,259 $4 11% 

2 84% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,700 $29,473 $33,173 -$32 25% 

3 85% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,928 $29,149 $33,077 -$36 35% 

4 97% AFUE - Max Tech $5,176 $27,717 $32,893 $148 53% 

Average LCC Results

Average LCC Results
All dollar values are in 2009 $ * discounted and summed over lifetime of equipment

Simulation Results SOUTH

Installed Lifetime LCC Net

Level Description Price Oper. Cost* LCC Savings Cost

NWGF 4,014

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $1,756 $4,648 $6,404

1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $2,290 $4,217 $6,508 -$111 51% 

2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,359 $4,141 $6,500 -$108 53% 

3 95% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,515 $4,032 $6,547 -$154 64% 

4 98% AFUE - Max Tech $2,820 $3,984 $6,805 -$412 81% 

MHGF 5,108

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $1,425 $11,175 $12,600

1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $2,024 $10,111 $12,135 $320 45% 

2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,243 $9,912 $12,155 $285 50% 

3 96% AFUE - Max Tech $2,546 $9,539 $12,085 $318 54% 

OF 1,061

0 82% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,764 $24,853 $27,617

1 83% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,874 $24,574 $27,448 $19 9% 

2 84% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,049 $24,302 $27,351 $13 21% 

3 85% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,227 $24,036 $27,263 $19 32% 

4 97% AFUE - Max Tech $4,335 $22,768 $27,102 $173 54% 

All dollar values are in 2009 $ * discounted and summed over lifetime of equipment

Average LCC Results
nd AEO 2011 Ref

AEO 2011 - Reference Case Simulation Results NATIONAL - Replacements

Payback Results

No Net Installed

Impact Benefit Median Average Level Description Price

NWGF

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $1,731

52% 19% 16.9 34.9 1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $2,447

42% 28% 13.3 29.6 2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,513

17% 36% 14.3 27.1 3 95% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,667

0% 21% 25.2 51.9 4 98% AFUE - Max Tech $2,939

MHGF

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $1,290

10% 44% 12.5 22.0 1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $1,961

8% 43% 13.8 23.3 2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,201

4% 43% 14.0 22.0 3 96% AFUE - Max Tech $2,491

OF

0 82% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,070

58% 31% 1.1 25.1 1 83% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,219

39% 36% 2.2 33.8 2 84% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,486

33% 32% 19.8 34.6 3 85% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,735

1% 46% 19.4 50.5 4 97% AFUE - Max Tech $5,098

All dollar values are in 2009 $

AEO 2011 - Reference Case Simulation Results NORTH - Replacements

Payback Results

No Net Installed

Impact Benefit Median Average Level Description Price

NWGF 4,465

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $1,844

71% 16% 11.7 14.1 1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $2,567

56% 29% 9.4 11.6 2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,633

23% 41% 11.9 13.9 3 95% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,792

1% 23% 21.6 36.0 4 98% AFUE - Max Tech $3,055

MHGF 2,451

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $1,495

10% 44% 12.8 23.2 1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $2,267

8% 43% 13.8 22.9 2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,532

3% 44% 13.6 19.6 3 96% AFUE - Max Tech $2,847

OF 8,033

0 82% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,122

58% 31% 1.1 25.7 1 83% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,276

39% 36% 2.5 34.8 2 84% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,552

33% 32% 20.2 35.6 3 85% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,807

1% 46% 19.4 51.7 4 97% AFUE - Max Tech $5,191
All dollar values are in 2009 $

AEO 2011 - Reference Case Simulation Results SOUTH - Replacements

Payback Results

No Net Installed

Impact Benefit Median Average Level Description Price

NWGF 3,044

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $1,564

24% 24% 25.2 46.7 1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $2,271

20% 27% 22.9 44.1 2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,336

8% 28% 23.6 43.6 3 95% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,484

0% 18% 35.2 73.9 4 98% AFUE - Max Tech $2,769

MHGF 2,547

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $1,093

10% 45% 12.1 20.8 1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $1,666

8% 43% 13.8 23.7 2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $1,882

4% 42% 14.5 24.4 3 96% AFUE - Max Tech $2,149

OF 967

0 82% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,641

60% 31% 1.2 20.0 1 83% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,744

39% 40% 1.6 25.4 2 84% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,938

33% 36% 15.5 25.7 3 85% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,134

1% 45% 19.4 40.5 4 97% AFUE - Max Tech $4,333

All dollar values are in 2009 $
AEO 2011 - Reference Case

Payback Results

Lifetime LCC Net No Net

Oper. Cost* LCC Savings Cost Impact Benefit Median Average

$6,531 $8,262

$5,900 $8,347 -$90 35% 52% 13% 22.1 42.5 

$5,787 $8,300 -$70 36% 42% 22% 16.5 35.2 

$5,627 $8,294 -$69 52% 17% 32% 15.2 30.0 

$5,557 $8,496 -$270 80% 0% 19% 25.5 52.7 

$11,265 $12,555

$10,246 $12,207 $231 48% 9% 35% 13.8 24.1 

$10,044 $12,245 $183 51% 7% 34% 15.0 26.1 

$9,664 $12,156 $239 54% 3% 34% 15.0 23.8 

$29,576 $32,646

$29,243 $32,461 -$1 10% 58% 31% 1.0 26.0 

$28,917 $32,403 -$62 27% 39% 34% 2.6 36.9 

$28,599 $32,334 -$92 38% 33% 29% 22.8 38.1 

$27,192 $32,290 -$46 58% 1% 41% 21.1 55.2 

* discounted and summed over lifetime of equipment

AEO 2011 - Reference Case

Payback Results

Lifetime LCC Net No Net

Oper. Cost* LCC Savings Cost Impact Benefit Median Average

$7,829 $9,673

$7,059 $9,625 $9 16% 72% 12% 14.0 17.2 

$6,921 $9,554 $39 18% 57% 25% 10.8 13.2 

$6,726 $9,518 $67 38% 23% 39% 12.1 14.3 

$6,643 $9,698 -$112 77% 1% 22% 21.2 34.0 

$12,471 $13,967

$11,406 $13,672 $271 54% 9% 38% 14.1 25.3 

$11,182 $13,714 $234 56% 7% 37% 15.0 25.7 

$10,761 $13,608 $336 59% 3% 38% 14.8 21.1 

$30,151 $33,274

$29,812 $33,088 -$3 10% 58% 31% 1.0 26.6 

$29,480 $33,032 -$69 28% 39% 34% 3.2 38.0 

$29,156 $32,963 -$101 39% 33% 28% 23.1 39.4 

$27,728 $32,919 -$54 58% 1% 42% 21.1 56.5 

Average LCC Results

Average LCC Results
* discounted and summed over lifetime of equipment

AEO 2011 - Reference Case

Payback Results

Lifetime LCC Net No Net

Oper. Cost* LCC Savings Cost Impact Benefit Median Average

$4,629 $6,193

$4,200 $6,472 -$237 61% 23% 15% 33.5 56.2 

$4,124 $6,460 -$230 63% 19% 18% 29.8 52.3 

$4,016 $6,500 -$269 72% 8% 20% 28.1 49.3 

$3,965 $6,735 -$504 85% 0% 15% 38.2 78.0 

$10,104 $11,197

$9,130 $10,796 $193 42% 8% 33% 13.1 23.0 

$8,949 $10,831 $134 46% 6% 32% 14.9 26.5 

$8,609 $10,758 $147 50% 3% 31% 15.5 26.4 

$24,792 $27,433

$24,514 $27,258 $17 9% 59% 32% 1.2 20.5 

$24,243 $27,180 -$8 23% 39% 38% 1.6 27.5 

$23,977 $27,111 -$19 35% 32% 33% 18.5 28.0 

$22,735 $27,068 $21 58% 1% 41% 21.1 44.2 

* discounted and summed over lifetime of equipment

Average LCC Results
Simulation Results NATIONAL - New Construction

Installed Lifetime LCC Net No

Level Description Price Oper. Cost* LCC Savings Cost Impact

NWGF

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,476 $6,716 $9,193

1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $2,497 $6,067 $8,563 $243 10% 53% 

2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,574 $5,951 $8,525 $257 13% 42% 

3 95% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,756 $5,787 $8,543 $237 34% 17% 

4 98% AFUE - Max Tech $3,112 $5,723 $8,834 -$53 71% 1% 

MHGF

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,892 $20,272 $23,164

1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $3,843 $18,435 $22,278 $801 40% 10% 

2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $4,174 $18,076 $22,250 $826 44% 8% 

3 96% AFUE - Max Tech $4,701 $17,402 $22,103 $967 48% 4% 

OF

0 82% AFUE - Increased HX Area $4,750 $29,643 $34,393

1 83% AFUE - Increased HX Area $4,967 $29,311 $34,278 $60 13% 57% 

2 84% AFUE - Increased HX Area $4,941 $28,986 $33,927 $289 4% 39% 

3 85% AFUE - Increased HX Area $4,920 $28,669 $33,589 $525 1% 33% 

4 97% AFUE - Max Tech $4,982 $27,194 $32,176 $1,917 13% 1% 

All dollar values are in 2009 $ * discounted and summed over lifetime of equipment

Simulation Results NORTH - New Construction

Installed Lifetime LCC Net No

Level Description Price Oper. Cost* LCC Savings Cost Impact

NWGF 1,521

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,552 $7,997 $10,549

1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $2,590 $7,212 $9,802 $217 3% 70% 

2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,666 $7,072 $9,738 $245 6% 55% 

3 95% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,848 $6,874 $9,722 $257 29% 23% 

4 98% AFUE - Max Tech $3,195 $6,793 $9,988 -$8 72% 1% 

MHGF 2,441

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $1,652 $13,067 $14,718

1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $2,178 $11,975 $14,152 $512 40% 10% 

2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,358 $11,741 $14,099 $560 43% 9% 

3 96% AFUE - Max Tech $2,644 $11,302 $13,946 $706 46% 4% 

OF 906

0 82% AFUE - Increased HX Area $4,824 $30,075 $34,900

1 83% AFUE - Increased HX Area $5,045 $29,738 $34,783 $62 13% 56% 

2 84% AFUE - Increased HX Area $5,019 $29,409 $34,427 $295 4% 39% 

3 85% AFUE - Increased HX Area $4,996 $29,087 $34,083 $537 1% 33% 

4 97% AFUE - Max Tech $5,047 $27,618 $32,666 $1,936 13% 1% 

Average LCC Results

Average LCC Results
All dollar values are in 2009 $ * discounted and summed over lifetime of equipment

Simulation Results SOUTH - New Construction

Installed Lifetime LCC Net No

Level Description (EF value at 40 Gallon) Price Oper. Cost* LCC Savings Cost Impact

NWGF 970

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,357 $4,708 $7,066

1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $2,351 $4,271 $6,621 $283 20% 27% 

2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,430 $4,193 $6,623 $275 24% 23% 

3 95% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,612 $4,083 $6,694 $207 42% 8% 

4 98% AFUE - Max Tech $2,981 $4,044 $7,025 -$123 71% 0% 

MHGF 2,561

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $4,074 $27,139 $31,213

1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $5,430 $24,592 $30,022 $1,077 40% 9% 

2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $5,904 $24,114 $30,019 $1,080 44% 8% 

3 96% AFUE - Max Tech $6,661 $23,216 $29,878 $1,216 49% 4% 

OF 94

0 82% AFUE - Increased HX Area $4,035 $25,477 $29,512

1 83% AFUE - Increased HX Area $4,213 $25,192 $29,406 $42 10% 65% 

2 84% AFUE - Increased HX Area $4,190 $24,915 $29,104 $229 1% 41% 

3 85% AFUE - Increased HX Area $4,185 $24,643 $28,828 $409 1% 35% 

4 97% AFUE - Max Tech $4,353 $23,103 $27,455 $1,738 5% 2% 

All dollar values are in 2009 $ * discounted and summed over lifetime of equipment

Average LCC Results
AEO 2011 - Reference Case

Payback Results

Net

Benefit Median Average

37% 0.7 11.6 

44% 5.5 12.4 

49% 11.1 18.3 

28% 24.4 49.7 

50% 11.4 19.8 

48% 12.5 20.4 

49% 13.1 20.2 

31% 12.4 17.9 

57% 1.6 5.7 

66% 1.1 2.6 

86% 0.0 7.4 

AEO 2011 - Reference Case

Payback Results

Net

Benefit Median Average

27% 3.9 5.6 

39% 6.7 7.2 

48% 11.1 12.7 

27% 23.5 42.0 

50% 11.4 21.1 

48% 12.5 20.0 

50% 12.8 18.0 

31% 12.7 18.2 

57% 1.5 6.0 

66% 1.1 2.6 

86% 0.0 7.8 
AEO 2011 - Reference Case

Payback Results

Net

Benefit Median Average

53% 0.0 15.4 

53% 2.0 17.2 

50% 11.3 25.8 

29% 27.4 61.1 

50% 11.3 18.6 

48% 12.7 20.9 

47% 13.8 22.4 

26% 8.8 13.7 

57% 1.7 3.0 

64% 1.2 1.9 

93% 0.6 4.5 
Case 2

APGA Request: Case 1 + AEO 2011 High Shale prices

Simulation Results NATIONAL - 10000 samples

Installed Lifetime LCC Net

Level Description Price Oper. Cost* LCC Savings Cost

NWGF

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $1,916 $6,049 $7,965

1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $2,459 $5,470 $7,928 -$29 30% 

2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,527 $5,366 $7,893 -$16 33% 

3 95% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,689 $5,220 $7,908 -$31 52% 

4 98% AFUE - Max Tech $2,981 $5,165 $8,145 -$268 82% 

MHGF

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $1,518 $11,022 $12,540

1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $2,150 $10,043 $12,193 $315 49% 

2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,371 $9,847 $12,218 $292 52% 

3 96% AFUE - Max Tech $2,674 $9,479 $12,153 $354 56% 

OF

0 82% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,238 $29,449 $32,688

1 83% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,393 $29,118 $32,511 $5 10% 

2 84% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,631 $28,794 $32,425 -$29 25% 

3 85% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,853 $28,478 $32,331 -$34 35% 

4 97% AFUE - Max Tech $5,088 $27,074 $32,162 $137 53% 

All dollar values are in 2009 $ * discounted and summed over lifetime of equipment

Simulation Results NORTH

Installed Lifetime LCC Net

Level Description Price Oper. Cost* LCC Savings Cost

NWGF 5,987

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,023 $7,199 $9,222

1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $2,572 $6,497 $9,070 $42 14% 

2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,641 $6,373 $9,014 $66 18% 

3 95% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,806 $6,194 $8,999 $76 42% 

4 98% AFUE - Max Tech $3,090 $6,129 $9,220 -$142 80% 

MHGF 4,891

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $1,574 $12,129 $13,702

1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $2,223 $11,111 $13,333 $336 51% 

2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,446 $10,894 $13,340 $330 53% 

3 96% AFUE - Max Tech $2,746 $10,488 $13,234 $433 57% 

OF 8,940

0 82% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,294 $30,011 $33,305

1 83% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,454 $29,673 $33,127 $4 11% 

2 84% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,700 $29,342 $33,042 -$34 25% 

3 85% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,928 $29,021 $32,947 -$39 35% 

4 97% AFUE - Max Tech $5,178 $27,599 $32,776 $134 53% 

Average LCC Results

Average LCC Results
All dollar values are in 2009 $ * discounted and summed over lifetime of equipment

Simulation Results SOUTH

Installed Lifetime LCC Net

Level Description Price Oper. Cost* LCC Savings Cost

NWGF 4,013

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $1,756 $4,334 $6,089

1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $2,289 $3,937 $6,226 -$135 53% 

2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,357 $3,864 $6,221 -$137 55% 

3 95% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,513 $3,765 $6,279 -$190 67% 

4 98% AFUE - Max Tech $2,819 $3,726 $6,544 -$455 84% 

MHGF 5,109

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $1,425 $10,878 $12,303

1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $2,024 $9,842 $11,866 $294 47% 

2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,241 $9,649 $11,890 $255 51% 

3 96% AFUE - Max Tech $2,545 $9,287 $11,831 $279 56% 

OF 1,060

0 82% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,762 $24,715 $27,477

1 83% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,872 $24,438 $27,310 $19 9% 

2 84% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,048 $24,167 $27,215 $10 22% 

3 85% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,225 $23,903 $27,128 $15 32% 

4 97% AFUE - Max Tech $4,331 $22,647 $26,977 $159 54% 

All dollar values are in 2009 $ * discounted and summed over lifetime of equipment

Average LCC Results
AEO 2011 - High Shale EUR Case Simulation Results NATIONAL - Replacements

Payback Results

No Net Installed

Impact Benefit Median Average Level Description Price

NWGF

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $1,730

52% 18% 18.8 38.6 1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $2,447

42% 25% 14.8 31.5 2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,513

17% 31% 16.0 29.9 3 95% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,667

0% 18% 28.5 59.5 4 98% AFUE - Max Tech $2,939

MHGF

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $1,290

10% 42% 13.9 25.1 1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $1,960

8% 40% 15.3 26.1 2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,200

4% 40% 15.4 24.6 3 96% AFUE - Max Tech $2,491

OF

0 82% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,070

58% 31% 1.1 25.1 1 83% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,218

39% 36% 2.2 34.0 2 84% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,486

33% 32% 20.0 34.7 3 85% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,735

1% 46% 19.6 51.6 4 97% AFUE - Max Tech $5,100

All dollar values are in 2009 $

AEO 2011 - High Shale EUR Case Simulation Results NORTH - Replacements

Payback Results

No Net Installed

Impact Benefit Median Average Level Description Price

NWGF 4,471

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $1,844

71% 14% 13.0 15.7 1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $2,567

56% 26% 10.4 12.9 2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,634

23% 36% 13.1 15.5 3 95% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,793

1% 19% 24.1 39.8 4 98% AFUE - Max Tech $3,056

MHGF 2,447

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $1,496

10% 40% 14.3 27.4 1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $2,267

8% 39% 15.5 26.1 2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,533

3% 40% 15.2 22.5 3 96% AFUE - Max Tech $2,847

OF 8,036

0 82% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,122

58% 31% 1.1 25.7 1 83% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,275

39% 36% 2.5 35.0 2 84% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,552

33% 32% 20.3 35.8 3 85% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,807

1% 46% 19.5 52.7 4 97% AFUE - Max Tech $5,193
All dollar values are in 2009 $

AEO 2011 - High Shale EUR Case Simulation Results SOUTH - Replacements

Payback Results

No Net Installed

Impact Benefit Median Average Level Description Price

NWGF 3,041

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $1,563

24% 23% 27.9 51.5 1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $2,270

20% 25% 25.3 46.7 2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,335

8% 25% 26.1 48.0 3 95% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,483

0% 16% 39.6 86.3 4 98% AFUE - Max Tech $2,768

MHGF 2,544

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $1,093

10% 43% 13.2 22.9 1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $1,666

8% 41% 14.9 26.0 2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $1,880

4% 40% 15.6 26.6 3 96% AFUE - Max Tech $2,148

OF 967

0 82% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,640

60% 31% 1.2 20.1 1 83% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,743

39% 39% 1.7 25.8 2 84% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,938

33% 35% 15.8 25.9 3 85% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,133

1% 45% 19.6 42.2 4 97% AFUE - Max Tech $4,329

All dollar values are in 2009 $
AEO 2011 - High Shale EUR Case

Payback Results

Lifetime LCC Net No Net

Oper. Cost* LCC Savings Cost Impact Benefit Median Average

$6,010 $7,740

$5,434 $7,881 -$112 36% 52% 12% 24.7 46.8 

$5,330 $7,843 -$97 39% 42% 20% 18.2 37.5 

$5,186 $7,853 -$107 56% 17% 27% 16.9 33.1 

$5,129 $8,068 -$322 84% 0% 16% 28.8 60.6 

$10,845 $12,135

$9,866 $11,826 $195 50% 9% 33% 15.2 26.6 

$9,672 $11,872 $139 53% 7% 32% 16.6 29.1 

$9,308 $11,798 $182 57% 3% 32% 16.5 26.4 

$29,444 $32,513

$29,112 $32,329 $0 10% 58% 31% 1.1 25.9 

$28,787 $32,273 -$64 27% 39% 34% 2.6 37.1 

$28,472 $32,206 -$95 38% 33% 29% 22.9 38.3 

$27,081 $32,181 -$59 58% 1% 41% 21.2 56.4 

* discounted and summed over lifetime of equipment

AEO 2011 - High Shale EUR Case

Payback Results

Lifetime LCC Net No Net

Oper. Cost* LCC Savings Cost Impact Benefit Median Average

$7,165 $9,008

$6,465 $9,032 -$11 18% 72% 10% 15.6 19.1 

$6,340 $8,974 $14 21% 57% 22% 11.6 14.6 

$6,163 $8,956 $28 44% 23% 33% 13.4 15.9 

$6,098 $9,152 -$168 82% 1% 17% 23.7 38.0 

$11,855 $13,350

$10,848 $13,115 $217 58% 9% 34% 15.7 28.0 

$10,636 $13,169 $168 59% 7% 34% 16.8 29.0 

$10,237 $13,084 $250 63% 3% 34% 16.4 23.8 

$30,021 $33,142

$29,683 $32,956 -$2 10% 58% 31% 1.0 26.6 

$29,351 $32,903 -$70 28% 39% 34% 3.2 38.2 

$29,029 $32,836 -$104 39% 33% 28% 23.1 39.5 

$27,619 $32,812 -$67 58% 1% 41% 21.1 57.7 

Average LCC Results

Average LCC Results
* discounted and summed over lifetime of equipment

AEO 2011 - High Shale EUR Case

Payback Results

Lifetime LCC Net No Net

Oper. Cost* LCC Savings Cost Impact Benefit Median Average

$4,313 $5,876

$3,918 $6,189 -$261 63% 23% 14% 36.9 61.8 

$3,845 $6,180 -$260 65% 19% 16% 32.9 55.3 

$3,748 $6,231 -$306 74% 8% 18% 31.2 54.3 

$3,705 $6,473 -$548 87% 0% 13% 43.2 90.8 

$9,874 $10,966

$8,921 $10,587 $173 44% 8% 32% 14.2 25.3 

$8,745 $10,624 $111 47% 6% 30% 16.3 29.2 

$8,415 $10,561 $116 51% 3% 30% 16.9 28.8 

$24,648 $27,288

$24,372 $27,115 $16 9% 59% 32% 1.2 20.6 

$24,102 $27,040 -$11 23% 39% 38% 1.7 27.9 

$23,838 $26,971 -$23 35% 33% 32% 18.5 28.2 

$22,608 $26,937 $8 59% 1% 40% 21.4 46.0 

* discounted and summed over lifetime of equipment

Average LCC Results
Simulation Results NATIONAL - New Construction

Installed Lifetime LCC Net No

Level Description Price Oper. Cost* LCC Savings Cost Impact

NWGF

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,476 $6,166 $8,642

1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $2,494 $5,575 $8,073 $221 11% 53% 

2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,571 $5,474 $8,045 $230 15% 42% 

3 95% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,753 $5,320 $8,073 $199 39% 17% 

4 98% AFUE - Max Tech $3,109 $5,270 $8,383 -$105 74% 1% 

MHGF

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,890 $19,512 $22,402

1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $3,841 $17,747 $21,588 $737 43% 10% 

2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $4,171 $17,403 $21,574 $750 46% 8% 

3 96% AFUE - Max Tech $4,699 $16,756 $21,455 $865 51% 4% 

OF

0 82% AFUE - Increased HX Area $4,753 $29,505 $34,258

1 83% AFUE - Increased HX Area $4,970 $29,174 $34,144 $59 13% 57% 

2 84% AFUE - Increased HX Area $4,943 $28,851 $33,794 $287 4% 39% 

3 85% AFUE - Increased HX Area $4,922 $28,536 $33,458 $523 1% 33% 

4 97% AFUE - Max Tech $4,982 $27,007 $31,989 $1,908 13% 1% 

All dollar values are in 2009 $ * discounted and summed over lifetime of equipment

Simulation Results NORTH - New Construction

Installed Lifetime LCC Net No

Level Description Price Oper. Cost* LCC Savings Cost Impact

NWGF 1,516

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,552 $7,299 $9,851

1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $2,587 $6,589 $9,182 $197 4% 70% 

2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,663 $6,469 $9,132 $219 9% 55% 

3 95% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,845 $6,283 $9,127 $216 35% 23% 

4 98% AFUE - Max Tech $3,192 $6,220 $9,419 -$67 75% 1% 

MHGF 2,444

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $1,652 $12,403 $14,055

1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $2,178 $11,374 $13,552 $455 44% 10% 

2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,358 $11,153 $13,511 $493 47% 8% 

3 96% AFUE - Max Tech $2,644 $10,740 $13,384 $616 50% 4% 

OF 904

0 82% AFUE - Increased HX Area $4,827 $29,926 $34,753

1 83% AFUE - Increased HX Area $5,048 $29,591 $34,639 $60 13% 56% 

2 84% AFUE - Increased HX Area $5,021 $29,263 $34,284 $293 4% 39% 

3 85% AFUE - Increased HX Area $4,999 $28,943 $33,941 $534 1% 33% 

4 97% AFUE - Max Tech $5,047 $27,415 $32,461 $1,926 13% 1% 

Average LCC Results

Average LCC Results
All dollar values are in 2009 $ * discounted and summed over lifetime of equipment

Simulation Results SOUTH - New Construction

Installed Lifetime LCC Net No

Level Description (EF value at 40 Gallon) Price Oper. Cost* LCC Savings Cost Impact

NWGF 972

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,357 $4,398 $6,756

1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $2,348 $3,994 $6,342 $260 21% 27% 

2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,428 $3,922 $6,350 $248 26% 23% 

3 95% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,609 $3,820 $6,429 $172 44% 8% 

4 98% AFUE - Max Tech $2,978 $3,789 $6,767 -$165 73% 0% 

MHGF 2,565

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $4,071 $26,285 $30,356

1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $5,426 $23,820 $29,246 $1,005 42% 9% 

2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $5,899 $23,357 $29,257 $994 46% 8% 

3 96% AFUE - Max Tech $6,657 $22,489 $29,146 $1,101 51% 4% 

OF 93

0 82% AFUE - Increased HX Area $4,032 $25,410 $29,442

1 83% AFUE - Increased HX Area $4,209 $25,126 $29,335 $42 10% 65% 

2 84% AFUE - Increased HX Area $4,185 $24,849 $29,034 $231 1% 41% 

3 85% AFUE - Increased HX Area $4,180 $24,579 $28,758 $412 1% 34% 

4 97% AFUE - Max Tech $4,352 $23,046 $27,398 $1,728 6% 2% 

All dollar values are in 2009 $ * discounted and summed over lifetime of equipment

Average LCC Results
AEO 2011 - High Shale EUR Case

Payback Results

Net

Benefit Median Average

36% 0.7 12.9 

42% 6.0 13.3 

44% 12.3 20.2 

25% 27.0 56.2 

47% 12.6 23.5 

45% 13.8 23.0 

45% 14.5 22.9 

30% 12.6 18.1 

57% 1.6 5.7 

66% 1.1 2.6 

86% 0.0 7.1 

AEO 2011 - High Shale EUR Case

Payback Results

Net

Benefit Median Average

26% 4.3 6.1 

37% 7.3 7.9 

42% 12.3 14.0 

24% 25.6 45.1 

46% 12.9 26.7 

45% 13.8 23.2 

46% 14.3 21.3 

31% 13.0 18.4 

57% 1.6 6.0 

66% 1.1 2.6 

86% 0.0 7.4 
AEO 2011 - High Shale EUR Case

Payback Results

Net

Benefit Median Average

51% 0.0 17.2 

51% 2.2 18.2 

48% 12.4 28.2 

26% 31.4 72.2 

48% 12.2 20.6 

46% 13.9 22.9 

45% 14.9 24.4 

26% 8.8 13.8 

58% 1.7 3.0 

65% 1.2 1.9 

91% 0.6 4.7 
Case 3

Case 1 + Electric Water Heater replacement for Orphaned Gas Water Heaters

Simulation Results NATIONAL - 10000 samples

Installed Lifetime LCC Net

Level Description Price Oper. Cost* LCC Savings Cost

NWGF

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $1,916 $6,578 $8,493

1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $2,435 $5,961 $8,396 -$12 29% 

2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,504 $5,848 $8,352 $7 31% 

3 95% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,665 $5,687 $8,352 $3 47% 

4 98% AFUE - Max Tech $2,958 $5,618 $8,576 -$221 78% 

MHGF

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $1,518 $11,487 $13,005

1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $2,150 $10,463 $12,613 $355 46% 

2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,369 $10,258 $12,627 $342 50% 

3 96% AFUE - Max Tech $2,674 $9,874 $12,548 $417 53% 

OF

0 82% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,238 $29,582 $32,821

1 83% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,396 $29,249 $32,645 $3 11% 

2 84% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,630 $28,924 $32,554 -$26 25% 

3 85% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,854 $28,606 $32,460 -$31 35% 

4 97% AFUE - Max Tech $5,092 $27,197 $32,289 $141 54% 

All dollar values are in 2009 $ * discounted and summed over lifetime of equipment

Simulation Results NORTH

Installed Lifetime LCC Net

Level Description Price Oper. Cost* LCC Savings Cost

NWGF 5,986

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,022 $7,871 $9,893

1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $2,536 $7,121 $9,657 $61 13% 

2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,605 $6,983 $9,588 $90 15% 

3 95% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,770 $6,787 $9,557 $114 36% 

4 98% AFUE - Max Tech $3,054 $6,704 $9,759 -$87 76% 

MHGF 4,892

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $1,573 $12,768 $14,342

1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $2,222 $11,690 $13,911 $392 47% 

2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,443 $11,461 $13,904 $399 51% 

3 96% AFUE - Max Tech $2,746 $11,031 $13,777 $520 53% 

OF 8,939

0 82% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,294 $30,144 $33,438

1 83% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,456 $29,804 $33,260 $3 11% 

2 84% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,698 $29,473 $33,171 -$30 25% 

3 85% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,925 $29,149 $33,074 -$34 35% 

4 97% AFUE - Max Tech $5,181 $27,723 $32,904 $138 53% 

Average LCC Results

Average LCC Results
All dollar values are in 2009 $ * discounted and summed over lifetime of equipment

Simulation Results SOUTH

Installed Lifetime LCC Net

Level Description Price Oper. Cost* LCC Savings Cost

NWGF 4,014

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $1,758 $4,648 $6,406

1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $2,284 $4,231 $6,516 -$120 52% 

2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,353 $4,155 $6,508 -$117 54% 

3 95% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,509 $4,046 $6,555 -$163 65% 

4 98% AFUE - Max Tech $2,814 $3,998 $6,813 -$421 81% 

MHGF 5,108

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $1,425 $11,175 $12,600

1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $2,024 $10,111 $12,135 $320 46% 

2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,240 $9,912 $12,153 $288 50% 

3 96% AFUE - Max Tech $2,546 $9,539 $12,085 $319 54% 

OF 1,061

0 82% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,764 $24,853 $27,617

1 83% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,892 $24,574 $27,466 $1 10% 

2 84% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,053 $24,302 $27,355 $9 22% 

3 85% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,248 $24,036 $27,284 -$2 33% 

4 97% AFUE - Max Tech $4,338 $22,770 $27,109 $166 55% 

All dollar values are in 2009 $ * discounted and summed over lifetime of equipment

Average LCC Results
AEO 2011 - Reference Case Simulation Results NATIONAL - Replacements

Payback Results

No Net Installed

Impact Benefit Median Average Level Description Price

NWGF

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $1,729

52% 19% 17.0 35.2 1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $2,416

42% 27% 13.3 29.5 2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,482

17% 36% 14.3 27.0 3 95% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,636

0% 21% 25.2 53.0 4 98% AFUE - Max Tech $2,908

MHGF

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $1,290

10% 44% 12.5 21.9 1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $1,960

8% 42% 13.6 23.2 2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,198

4% 43% 14.0 22.1 3 96% AFUE - Max Tech $2,491

OF

0 82% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,070

58% 31% 1.2 24.3 1 83% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,222

39% 36% 2.3 33.2 2 84% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,484

33% 32% 20.1 33.9 3 85% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,735

1% 45% 19.3 48.0 4 97% AFUE - Max Tech $5,105

All dollar values are in 2009 $

AEO 2011 - Reference Case Simulation Results NORTH - Replacements

Payback Results

No Net Installed

Impact Benefit Median Average Level Description Price

NWGF 4,465

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $1,840

71% 16% 11.6 14.3 1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $2,521

56% 28% 9.4 11.7 2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,588

23% 41% 11.9 14.0 3 95% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,747

1% 23% 21.5 36.1 4 98% AFUE - Max Tech $3,010

MHGF 2,451

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $1,495

10% 43% 12.8 23.2 1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $2,266

8% 42% 13.6 22.9 2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,529

3% 43% 13.7 19.7 3 96% AFUE - Max Tech $2,847

OF 8,033

0 82% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,122

58% 31% 1.1 24.4 1 83% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,277

39% 36% 2.5 34.3 2 84% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,549

33% 32% 20.3 34.7 3 85% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,805

1% 46% 19.3 48.0 4 97% AFUE - Max Tech $5,197
All dollar values are in 2009 $

AEO 2011 - Reference Case Simulation Results SOUTH - Replacements

Payback Results

No Net Installed

Impact Benefit Median Average Level Description Price

NWGF 3,044

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $1,567

24% 24% 25.8 46.9 1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $2,262

20% 26% 23.2 43.9 2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,326

8% 27% 23.7 43.4 3 95% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,474

0% 18% 35.5 76.3 4 98% AFUE - Max Tech $2,759

MHGF 2,547

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $1,093

10% 45% 12.1 20.8 1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $1,666

8% 43% 13.8 23.4 2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $1,879

4% 42% 14.5 24.3 3 96% AFUE - Max Tech $2,149

OF 967

0 82% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,641

60% 30% 1.2 23.5 1 83% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,764

39% 39% 1.7 24.3 2 84% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,942

33% 34% 17.6 27.0 3 85% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,157

1% 44% 19.3 48.3 4 97% AFUE - Max Tech $4,340

All dollar values are in 2009 $
AEO 2011 - Reference Case

Payback Results

Lifetime LCC Net No Net

Oper. Cost* LCC Savings Cost Impact Benefit Median Average

$6,531 $8,261

$5,917 $8,333 -$92 35% 52% 13% 22.3 42.7 

$5,804 $8,286 -$71 36% 42% 22% 16.6 35.0 

$5,644 $8,280 -$70 52% 17% 32% 15.2 29.8 

$5,574 $8,482 -$272 81% 0% 19% 25.6 53.3 

$11,265 $12,555

$10,246 $12,206 $232 48% 9% 35% 13.7 24.1 

$10,044 $12,242 $186 52% 7% 33% 15.0 25.9 

$9,664 $12,156 $239 54% 3% 34% 15.1 23.9 

$29,576 $32,646

$29,243 $32,464 -$4 11% 58% 31% 1.1 25.0 

$28,917 $32,401 -$60 27% 39% 34% 2.5 36.3 

$28,599 $32,335 -$93 39% 33% 28% 22.8 37.4 

$27,196 $32,301 -$56 58% 1% 41% 21.0 52.3 

* discounted and summed over lifetime of equipment

AEO 2011 - Reference Case

Payback Results

Lifetime LCC Net No Net

Oper. Cost* LCC Savings Cost Impact Benefit Median Average

$7,829 $9,669

$7,078 $9,599 $10 16% 72% 12% 14.0 17.3 

$6,940 $9,528 $40 18% 57% 25% 10.8 13.2 

$6,745 $9,492 $68 38% 23% 39% 12.0 14.4 

$6,662 $9,671 -$111 78% 1% 22% 21.3 34.4 

$12,471 $13,967

$11,406 $13,671 $272 54% 9% 37% 14.0 25.3 

$11,182 $13,711 $236 58% 7% 35% 15.0 25.6 

$10,761 $13,608 $334 60% 3% 37% 14.9 21.3 

$30,151 $33,274

$29,812 $33,089 -$4 10% 58% 31% 1.0 25.0 

$29,480 $33,029 -$66 28% 39% 34% 3.0 37.5 

$29,156 $32,961 -$99 39% 33% 28% 22.9 38.4 

$27,732 $32,929 -$64 58% 1% 41% 21.1 52.3 

Average LCC Results

Average LCC Results
* discounted and summed over lifetime of equipment

AEO 2011 - Reference Case

Payback Results

Lifetime LCC Net No Net

Oper. Cost* LCC Savings Cost Impact Benefit Median Average

$4,629 $6,196

$4,213 $6,475 -$241 62% 23% 15% 33.5 56.3 

$4,137 $6,463 -$234 63% 19% 18% 29.5 52.1 

$4,028 $6,503 -$273 72% 8% 20% 27.9 48.9 

$3,978 $6,737 -$508 85% 0% 15% 38.0 79.0 

$10,104 $11,197

$9,130 $10,796 $194 43% 8% 33% 13.2 23.0 

$8,949 $10,828 $137 47% 6% 31% 14.9 26.1 

$8,609 $10,758 $147 49% 3% 31% 15.4 26.3 

$24,792 $27,433

$24,514 $27,278 -$3 11% 59% 30% 1.2 24.5 

$24,243 $27,185 -$12 23% 39% 38% 1.7 26.2 

$23,977 $27,135 -$43 37% 32% 31% 20.5 29.4 

$22,738 $27,078 $10 59% 1% 40% 20.8 52.7 

* discounted and summed over lifetime of equipment

Average LCC Results
Simulation Results NATIONAL - New Construction

Installed Lifetime LCC Net No

Level Description Price Oper. Cost* LCC Savings Cost Impact

NWGF

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,479 $6,716 $9,195

1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $2,493 $6,096 $8,589 $228 11% 53% 

2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,570 $5,980 $8,551 $242 14% 42% 

3 95% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,752 $5,816 $8,568 $223 34% 17% 

4 98% AFUE - Max Tech $3,108 $5,752 $8,860 -$68 72% 1% 

MHGF

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,892 $20,272 $23,164

1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $3,843 $18,435 $22,278 $801 40% 10% 

2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $4,171 $18,076 $22,247 $829 44% 8% 

3 96% AFUE - Max Tech $4,701 $17,402 $22,103 $967 48% 4% 

OF

0 82% AFUE - Increased HX Area $4,748 $29,643 $34,391

1 83% AFUE - Increased HX Area $4,966 $29,311 $34,276 $59 13% 57% 

2 84% AFUE - Increased HX Area $4,946 $28,986 $33,932 $281 4% 39% 

3 85% AFUE - Increased HX Area $4,916 $28,669 $33,585 $527 1% 33% 

4 97% AFUE - Max Tech $4,972 $27,209 $32,181 $1,910 13% 1% 

All dollar values are in 2009 $ * discounted and summed over lifetime of equipment

Simulation Results NORTH - New Construction

Installed Lifetime LCC Net No

Level Description Price Oper. Cost* LCC Savings Cost Impact

NWGF 1,521

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,556 $7,997 $10,553

1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $2,580 $7,248 $9,828 $209 4% 70% 

2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,656 $7,109 $9,765 $236 7% 55% 

3 95% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,838 $6,910 $9,748 $248 29% 23% 

4 98% AFUE - Max Tech $3,185 $6,830 $10,015 -$17 73% 1% 

MHGF 2,441

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $1,652 $13,067 $14,718

1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $2,178 $11,975 $14,152 $512 40% 10% 

2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,356 $11,741 $14,097 $562 43% 9% 

3 96% AFUE - Max Tech $2,644 $11,302 $13,946 $706 46% 4% 

OF 906

0 82% AFUE - Increased HX Area $4,822 $30,075 $34,898

1 83% AFUE - Increased HX Area $5,044 $29,738 $34,782 $60 13% 56% 

2 84% AFUE - Increased HX Area $5,024 $29,409 $34,433 $287 4% 39% 

3 85% AFUE - Increased HX Area $4,993 $29,087 $34,080 $538 1% 33% 

4 97% AFUE - Max Tech $5,040 $27,635 $32,675 $1,924 13% 1% 

Average LCC Results

Average LCC Results
All dollar values are in 2009 $ * discounted and summed over lifetime of equipment

Simulation Results SOUTH - New Construction

Installed Lifetime LCC Net No

Level Description (EF value at 40 Gallon) Price Oper. Cost* LCC Savings Cost Impact

NWGF 970

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,357 $4,708 $7,065

1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $2,356 $4,289 $6,645 $258 22% 27% 

2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,436 $4,211 $6,647 $251 26% 23% 

3 95% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,617 $4,101 $6,718 $182 42% 8% 

4 98% AFUE - Max Tech $2,986 $4,062 $7,049 -$147 70% 0% 

MHGF 2,561

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $4,074 $27,139 $31,213

1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $5,430 $24,592 $30,022 $1,077 40% 9% 

2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $5,901 $24,114 $30,015 $1,083 44% 8% 

3 96% AFUE - Max Tech $6,661 $23,216 $29,878 $1,215 49% 4% 

OF 94

0 82% AFUE - Increased HX Area $4,035 $25,477 $29,512

1 83% AFUE - Increased HX Area $4,209 $25,192 $29,401 $46 7% 65% 

2 84% AFUE - Increased HX Area $4,194 $24,915 $29,108 $225 3% 41% 

3 85% AFUE - Increased HX Area $4,177 $24,643 $28,821 $416 0% 35% 

4 97% AFUE - Max Tech $4,320 $23,101 $27,421 $1,768 6% 2% 

All dollar values are in 2009 $ * discounted and summed over lifetime of equipment

Average LCC Results
AEO 2011 - Reference Case

Payback Results

Net

Benefit Median Average

36% 1.0 11.9 

43% 5.8 12.3 

48% 11.1 18.5 

28% 24.3 52.1 

50% 11.4 19.8 

48% 12.3 20.4 

49% 13.1 20.2 

30% 12.4 18.6 

57% 1.6 5.7 

66% 1.0 2.3 

86% 0.0 8.8 

AEO 2011 - Reference Case

Payback Results

Net

Benefit Median Average

26% 4.0 5.9 

38% 6.8 7.3 

47% 11.2 12.8 

27% 23.1 41.3 

50% 11.4 21.1 

48% 12.3 20.0 

50% 12.7 18.0 

31% 12.7 19.1 

57% 1.6 5.9 

66% 1.0 2.4 

86% 0.0 9.2 
AEO 2011 - Reference Case

Payback Results

Net

Benefit Median Average

51% 0.0 15.8 

51% 2.2 16.8 

50% 11.1 26.0 

29% 26.7 67.8 

50% 11.3 18.6 

48% 12.7 20.8 

47% 13.8 22.3 

28% 7.1 12.4 

55% 1.6 3.2 

65% 1.1 1.4 

91% 0.0 4.7 
Case 4

APGA Request: Case 1 + No Chimney Relining

Simulation Results NATIONAL - 10000 samples

Installed Lifetime LCC Net

Level Description Price Oper. Cost* LCC Savings Cost

NWGF

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $1,870 $6,578 $8,448

1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $2,443 $5,942 $8,384 -$19 29% 

2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,511 $5,828 $8,339 $0 31% 

3 95% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,672 $5,667 $8,340 -$4 48% 

4 98% AFUE - Max Tech $2,965 $5,598 $8,564 -$228 79% 

MHGF

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $1,518 $11,487 $13,005

1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $2,151 $10,463 $12,613 $355 46% 

2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,371 $10,258 $12,629 $339 50% 

3 96% AFUE - Max Tech $2,674 $9,874 $12,548 $417 53% 

OF

0 82% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,238 $29,582 $32,821

1 83% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,394 $29,249 $32,643 $5 10% 

2 84% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,631 $28,924 $32,555 -$27 25% 

3 85% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,853 $28,606 $32,460 -$31 35% 

4 97% AFUE - Max Tech $5,087 $27,192 $32,279 $151 53% 

All dollar values are in 2009 $ * discounted and summed over lifetime of equipment

Simulation Results NORTH

Installed Lifetime LCC Net

Level Description Price Oper. Cost* LCC Savings Cost

NWGF 5,986

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $1,955 $7,871 $9,826

1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $2,546 $7,098 $9,644 $48 14% 

2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,615 $6,960 $9,575 $77 16% 

3 95% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,780 $6,763 $9,543 $101 36% 

4 98% AFUE - Max Tech $3,064 $6,681 $9,745 -$99 77% 

MHGF 4,892

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $1,573 $12,768 $14,342

1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $2,222 $11,690 $13,912 $391 47% 

2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,445 $11,461 $13,906 $397 50% 

3 96% AFUE - Max Tech $2,746 $11,031 $13,777 $520 53% 

OF 8,939

0 82% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,295 $30,144 $33,438

1 83% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,455 $29,804 $33,259 $4 11% 

2 84% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,700 $29,473 $33,173 -$32 25% 

3 85% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,928 $29,149 $33,077 -$36 35% 

4 97% AFUE - Max Tech $5,176 $27,717 $32,893 $148 53% 

Average LCC Results

Average LCC Results
All dollar values are in 2009 $ * discounted and summed over lifetime of equipment

Simulation Results SOUTH

Installed Lifetime LCC Net

Level Description Price Oper. Cost* LCC Savings Cost

NWGF 4,014

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $1,744 $4,648 $6,392

1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $2,288 $4,217 $6,506 -$118 52% 

2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,357 $4,141 $6,497 -$115 54% 

3 95% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,513 $4,032 $6,545 -$161 65% 

4 98% AFUE - Max Tech $2,818 $3,984 $6,803 -$419 82% 

MHGF 5,108

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $1,425 $11,175 $12,600

1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $2,024 $10,111 $12,135 $320 45% 

2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,243 $9,912 $12,155 $285 50% 

3 96% AFUE - Max Tech $2,546 $9,539 $12,085 $318 54% 

OF 1,061

0 82% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,764 $24,853 $27,617

1 83% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,874 $24,574 $27,448 $19 9% 

2 84% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,049 $24,302 $27,351 $13 21% 

3 85% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,227 $24,036 $27,263 $19 32% 

4 97% AFUE - Max Tech $4,335 $22,768 $27,102 $173 54% 

All dollar values are in 2009 $ * discounted and summed over lifetime of equipment

Average LCC Results
AEO 2011 - Reference Case Simulation Results NATIONAL - Replacements

Payback Results

No Net Installed

Impact Benefit Median Average Level Description Price

NWGF

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $1,669

52% 19% 17.5 35.7 1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $2,425

42% 27% 13.6 30.1 2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,490

17% 35% 14.6 27.4 3 95% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,645

0% 21% 25.5 52.2 4 98% AFUE - Max Tech $2,917

MHGF

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $1,290

10% 44% 12.5 22.0 1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $1,961

8% 43% 13.8 23.3 2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,201

4% 43% 14.0 22.0 3 96% AFUE - Max Tech $2,491

OF

0 82% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,070

58% 31% 1.1 25.1 1 83% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,219

39% 36% 2.2 33.8 2 84% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,486

33% 32% 19.8 34.6 3 85% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,735

1% 46% 19.4 50.5 4 97% AFUE - Max Tech $5,098

All dollar values are in 2009 $

AEO 2011 - Reference Case Simulation Results NORTH - Replacements

Payback Results

No Net Installed

Impact Benefit Median Average Level Description Price

NWGF 4,465

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $1,751

71% 15% 12.2 15.1 1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $2,531

56% 28% 9.7 12.2 2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,597

23% 41% 12.0 14.2 3 95% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,756

1% 23% 22.0 36.3 4 98% AFUE - Max Tech $3,019

MHGF 2,451

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $1,495

10% 44% 12.8 23.2 1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $2,267

8% 43% 13.8 22.9 2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,532

3% 44% 13.6 19.6 3 96% AFUE - Max Tech $2,847

OF 8,033

0 82% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,122

58% 31% 1.1 25.7 1 83% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,276

39% 36% 2.5 34.8 2 84% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,552

33% 32% 20.2 35.6 3 85% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,807

1% 46% 19.4 51.7 4 97% AFUE - Max Tech $5,191
All dollar values are in 2009 $

AEO 2011 - Reference Case Simulation Results SOUTH - Replacements

Payback Results

No Net Installed

Impact Benefit Median Average Level Description Price

NWGF 3,044

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $1,548

24% 24% 25.6 47.3 1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $2,269

20% 26% 23.3 44.7 2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,333

8% 27% 23.8 44.0 3 95% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,481

0% 18% 35.5 74.4 4 98% AFUE - Max Tech $2,766

MHGF 2,547

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $1,093

10% 45% 12.1 20.8 1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $1,666

8% 43% 13.8 23.7 2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $1,882

4% 42% 14.5 24.4 3 96% AFUE - Max Tech $2,149

OF 967

0 82% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,641

60% 31% 1.2 20.0 1 83% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,744

39% 40% 1.6 25.4 2 84% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,938

33% 36% 15.5 25.7 3 85% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,134

1% 45% 19.4 40.5 4 97% AFUE - Max Tech $4,333

All dollar values are in 2009 $
AEO 2011 - Reference Case

Payback Results

Lifetime LCC Net No Net

Oper. Cost* LCC Savings Cost Impact Benefit Median Average

$6,531 $8,200

$5,900 $8,325 -$105 35% 52% 13% 23.1 43.4 

$5,787 $8,278 -$85 37% 42% 21% 17.0 35.9 

$5,627 $8,272 -$84 52% 17% 31% 15.4 30.4 

$5,557 $8,474 -$285 81% 0% 19% 25.8 53.1 

$11,265 $12,555

$10,246 $12,207 $231 48% 9% 35% 13.8 24.1 

$10,044 $12,245 $183 51% 7% 34% 15.0 26.1 

$9,664 $12,156 $239 54% 3% 34% 15.0 23.8 

$29,576 $32,646

$29,243 $32,461 -$1 10% 58% 31% 1.0 26.0 

$28,917 $32,403 -$62 27% 39% 34% 2.6 36.9 

$28,599 $32,334 -$92 38% 33% 29% 22.8 38.1 

$27,192 $32,290 -$46 58% 1% 41% 21.1 55.2 

* discounted and summed over lifetime of equipment

AEO 2011 - Reference Case

Payback Results

Lifetime LCC Net No Net

Oper. Cost* LCC Savings Cost Impact Benefit Median Average

$7,829 $9,580

$7,059 $9,590 -$9 17% 72% 11% 14.7 18.5 

$6,921 $9,519 $21 19% 57% 24% 11.0 14.0 

$6,726 $9,482 $48 39% 23% 38% 12.4 14.7 

$6,643 $9,662 -$130 78% 1% 21% 21.6 34.3 

$12,471 $13,967

$11,406 $13,672 $271 54% 9% 38% 14.1 25.3 

$11,182 $13,714 $234 56% 7% 37% 15.0 25.7 

$10,761 $13,608 $336 59% 3% 38% 14.8 21.1 

$30,151 $33,274

$29,812 $33,088 -$3 10% 58% 31% 1.0 26.6 

$29,480 $33,032 -$69 28% 39% 34% 3.2 38.0 

$29,156 $32,963 -$101 39% 33% 28% 23.1 39.4 

$27,728 $32,919 -$54 58% 1% 42% 21.1 56.5 

Average LCC Results

Average LCC Results
* discounted and summed over lifetime of equipment

AEO 2011 - Reference Case

Payback Results

Lifetime LCC Net No Net

Oper. Cost* LCC Savings Cost Impact Benefit Median Average

$4,629 $6,177

$4,200 $6,469 -$246 62% 23% 15% 33.8 56.9 

$4,124 $6,457 -$240 63% 19% 18% 30.2 53.0 

$4,016 $6,497 -$278 72% 8% 20% 28.5 49.8 

$3,965 $6,732 -$513 85% 0% 15% 38.5 78.5 

$10,104 $11,197

$9,130 $10,796 $193 42% 8% 33% 13.1 23.0 

$8,949 $10,831 $134 46% 6% 32% 14.9 26.5 

$8,609 $10,758 $147 50% 3% 31% 15.5 26.4 

$24,792 $27,433

$24,514 $27,258 $17 9% 59% 32% 1.2 20.5 

$24,243 $27,180 -$8 23% 39% 38% 1.6 27.5 

$23,977 $27,111 -$19 35% 32% 33% 18.5 28.0 

$22,735 $27,068 $21 58% 1% 41% 21.1 44.2 

* discounted and summed over lifetime of equipment

Average LCC Results
Simulation Results NATIONAL - New Construction

Installed Lifetime LCC Net No

Level Description Price Oper. Cost* LCC Savings Cost Impact

NWGF

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,476 $6,716 $9,193

1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $2,497 $6,067 $8,563 $243 10% 53% 

2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,574 $5,951 $8,525 $257 13% 42% 

3 95% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,756 $5,787 $8,543 $237 34% 17% 

4 98% AFUE - Max Tech $3,112 $5,723 $8,834 -$53 71% 1% 

MHGF

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,892 $20,272 $23,164

1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $3,843 $18,435 $22,278 $801 40% 10% 

2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $4,174 $18,076 $22,250 $826 44% 8% 

3 96% AFUE - Max Tech $4,701 $17,402 $22,103 $967 48% 4% 

OF

0 82% AFUE - Increased HX Area $4,750 $29,643 $34,393

1 83% AFUE - Increased HX Area $4,967 $29,311 $34,278 $60 13% 57% 

2 84% AFUE - Increased HX Area $4,941 $28,986 $33,927 $289 4% 39% 

3 85% AFUE - Increased HX Area $4,920 $28,669 $33,589 $525 1% 33% 

4 97% AFUE - Max Tech $4,982 $27,194 $32,176 $1,917 13% 1% 

All dollar values are in 2009 $ * discounted and summed over lifetime of equipment

Simulation Results NORTH - New Construction

Installed Lifetime LCC Net No

Level Description Price Oper. Cost* LCC Savings Cost Impact

NWGF 1,521

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,552 $7,997 $10,549

1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $2,590 $7,212 $9,802 $217 3% 70% 

2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,666 $7,072 $9,738 $245 6% 55% 

3 95% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,848 $6,874 $9,722 $257 29% 23% 

4 98% AFUE - Max Tech $3,195 $6,793 $9,988 -$8 72% 1% 

MHGF 2,441

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $1,652 $13,067 $14,718

1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $2,178 $11,975 $14,152 $512 40% 10% 

2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,358 $11,741 $14,099 $560 43% 9% 

3 96% AFUE - Max Tech $2,644 $11,302 $13,946 $706 46% 4% 

OF 906

0 82% AFUE - Increased HX Area $4,824 $30,075 $34,900

1 83% AFUE - Increased HX Area $5,045 $29,738 $34,783 $62 13% 56% 

2 84% AFUE - Increased HX Area $5,019 $29,409 $34,427 $295 4% 39% 

3 85% AFUE - Increased HX Area $4,996 $29,087 $34,083 $537 1% 33% 

4 97% AFUE - Max Tech $5,047 $27,618 $32,666 $1,936 13% 1% 

Average LCC Results

Average LCC Results
All dollar values are in 2009 $ * discounted and summed over lifetime of equipment

Simulation Results SOUTH - New Construction

Installed Lifetime LCC Net No

Level Description (EF value at 40 Gallon) Price Oper. Cost* LCC Savings Cost Impact

NWGF 970

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,357 $4,708 $7,066

1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $2,351 $4,271 $6,621 $283 20% 27% 

2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,430 $4,193 $6,623 $275 24% 23% 

3 95% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,612 $4,083 $6,694 $207 42% 8% 

4 98% AFUE - Max Tech $2,981 $4,044 $7,025 -$123 71% 0% 

MHGF 2,561

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $4,074 $27,139 $31,213

1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $5,430 $24,592 $30,022 $1,077 40% 9% 

2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $5,904 $24,114 $30,019 $1,080 44% 8% 

3 96% AFUE - Max Tech $6,661 $23,216 $29,878 $1,216 49% 4% 

OF 94

0 82% AFUE - Increased HX Area $4,035 $25,477 $29,512

1 83% AFUE - Increased HX Area $4,213 $25,192 $29,406 $42 10% 65% 

2 84% AFUE - Increased HX Area $4,190 $24,915 $29,104 $229 1% 41% 

3 85% AFUE - Increased HX Area $4,185 $24,643 $28,828 $409 1% 35% 

4 97% AFUE - Max Tech $4,353 $23,103 $27,455 $1,738 5% 2% 

All dollar values are in 2009 $ * discounted and summed over lifetime of equipment

Average LCC Results
AEO 2011 - Reference Case

Payback Results

Net

Benefit Median Average

37% 0.7 11.6 

44% 5.5 12.4 

49% 11.1 18.3 

28% 24.4 49.7 

50% 11.4 19.8 

48% 12.5 20.4 

49% 13.1 20.2 

31% 12.4 17.9 

57% 1.6 5.7 

66% 1.1 2.6 

86% 0.0 7.4 

AEO 2011 - Reference Case

Payback Results

Net

Benefit Median Average

27% 3.9 5.6 

39% 6.7 7.2 

48% 11.1 12.7 

27% 23.5 42.0 

50% 11.4 21.1 

48% 12.5 20.0 

50% 12.8 18.0 

31% 12.7 18.2 

57% 1.5 6.0 

66% 1.1 2.6 

86% 0.0 7.8 
AEO 2011 - Reference Case

Payback Results

Net

Benefit Median Average

53% 0.0 15.4 

53% 2.0 17.2 

50% 11.3 25.8 

29% 27.4 61.1 

50% 11.3 18.6 

48% 12.7 20.9 

47% 13.8 22.4 

26% 8.8 13.7 

57% 1.7 3.0 

64% 1.2 1.9 

93% 0.6 4.5 
Comparison of Venting System Distributions (2007 TSD vs. 2011 DFR)

Fraction

New/Replacement 25%/75%

Water Heater Common 50%

Vent Distribution in 2015

9 percent Exterior Masonry;

14 percent Interior Masonry;

27 percent Lined Masonry;

32 percent Type B;

18 percent Other

Vent Connector Distribution in 2015

53 percent single wall;

36 percent double wall;

11 percent other

Parameter

Response: DOE used the same sources to come up with weighting factors for the venting system distributions as shown in th

regional data available from these sources or more recent data (e.g. RECS 2005) to derive regional weights.

2007 Final Rule

APGA Comment: Implement Venting Systems Distribution Consistent with the 2007 TSD, “Technical Support Document: Ene

Standards for Residential Furnaces and Boilers,” September 2007, Appendix C, Section C.4.2. Weighting factors used in the cu

deviating from these previously-used weighting factors.

Vent Connector Distribution in 2015 11 percent other

Weighting Factors from 2007 Furnace Final Rule , Appendix C, C.4.2 (pg. C-29)
007 TSD vs. 2011 DFR)

Source Fraction

Residential Furnace & Boiler Marketing 

Analysis 25%/75%

1994 GRI survey and 2001 Water Heater Rule 

(based on 1990 AGA/BECS Gas Water Heater 

Survey) 57%

1994 GRI survey modified to take into account 

relinings between 1992 and 2015, see section 

6.2.8 in Appendix C of 2007 Final Rule.

46% (9%+14%+27%) total 

Masonry Chimneys; 

remaining 54% (100%-46%) 

are non-masonry

1994 GRI survey 

Fractions not used. Double 

wall vent connector applied to 

all installations requiring a 

new vent connector.

ting factors for the venting system distributions as shown in the table below. Using the sources listed below, DOE applied the 

a (e.g. RECS 2005) to derive regional weights.

2007 Final Rule

nsistent with the 2007 TSD, “Technical Support Document: Energy Efficiency Program for Consumer Products, Energy Conservation 

007, Appendix C, Section C.4.2. Weighting factors used in the current analysis are undocumented, and no basis is provided for 

2011 Direct Final Rule

1994 GRI survey new vent connector.

C, C.4.2 (pg. C-29)
Source

NIA Spreadsheet based on historical 

Shiipment Data Same fraction and Sources

1990 A.G.A./BECS Gas Water Heater 

Survey

Used similar sources; 1990 AGA/BECS Gas Water Heater Survey is a 

larger survey (32,000) and provdes data for the 4 census regions.

1994 GRI survey modified to take into 

account 1992 to 2016 relinings, see 

section 8-B.2.3.2.2 (pg. 8-B-9) in Appendix 

8B of 2011 Furnace DFR.

Same data source was used. 2011 DFR uses regional values (North, 

South HD, South HH) from the 1994 GRI Survey to conduct regional 

analysis. To account for relinings between 1992 and 2015, 2011 

DFR uses RECS 2005 vs. RECS 2001 used in 2007 Final Rule.

Consultant Report

Notes

Using the sources listed below, DOE applied the 

ogram for Consumer Products, Energy Conservation 

re undocumented, and no basis is provided for 

2011 Direct Final Rule

Consultant Report
Implementation of APGA Installation Costs

Additional Venting System/Installation Requirements

AGA Cost Data Range of 

Est. Cost (2005$)

Reline existing chimney or resize vent to accommodate the remaining 

appliance (code requirement for proper vent sizing) $600 - $1,000

Install drain pan for condensate from condensing furnace (code 

requirement to avoid structural damage) $150 - $250

Install freeze protection for condensate line to ensure reliability of 

disposal (for installation outside of conditioned space) $200

Perform structural modifications (including boring holes in Interior 

walls, floors, exterior walls for vents and new vent termination kit) $300 - $450

Install condensate drain, pump, acid neutralizer, etc. $250 - $300

* Adjusted using CPI (2009 vs. 2005)

APGA Comment: Implement AGA Survey Ranges of Installation Cost for Furnace Replacements of Category I Systems with Ca

and these ranges should be simulated as uniform cost distributions for the component costs. The AGA survey costs have bee

included in the DOE installed costs (e.g., drain pans) should be included as additional cost adders, either by including them ex

the case of the latter approach, DOE should document how it added costs to other cost categories.

Response: DOE used APGA Installation Cost Data and applied it to the LCC spreadsheet as shown in the table below. 
Cost Data Range Applied 

in LCC Spreadsheet 

using a Uniform 

Distribution (2009$)* Implementation

$659 - $1,098

Replaced all chimney relining and resizing costs with this range (applied this 

range to cells k36, k37, k44, k46, k47, and k48 in "Installation Cost" worksheet 

in LCC Spreadsheet).

$165 - $275

Replaced Condensate Drain Pan value with this range (cell k53 in "Installation 

Cost" worksheet in LCC Spreadsheet).

$220

Replaced Condensate Heat Tape (Freeze Protection) value with this range (cell 

k52 in "Installation Cost" worksheet in LCC Spreadsheet). Assumed that this 

cost range includes electricity outlet costs (therefore, set cell k50 equal to 

zero).

$330 - $494

Replaced all components of Plastic Venting Installation Costs (Flue Venting 

(Plastic Vent); Concealing Plastic Venting (Retrofit Only); Combustion Air Pipe 

(Direct Vent)) values with this range (applied this range to cell k40 and set cell 

41 and cell42 equal to zero in "Installation Cost" worksheet in LCC 

Spreadsheet).

$275 - $330

Replaced Condensate Pump value with this range (cell k51 in "Installation 

Cost" worksheet in LCC Spreadsheet). Assumed that this cost range includes 

electricity outlet costs (therefore, set cell k50 equal to zero).

cements of Category I Systems with Category IV. The following table of installation costs is from the AGA survey data, 

 costs. The AGA survey costs have been previously submitted to DOE and are in the rulemaking docket. Costs not 

ost adders, either by including them explicitly as new cost categories or added to other, existing cost categories. In 

t categories.

 as shown in the table below. 
Relining/Resizing Distribution
AEO Price Forecast Comparison

DOE used the following AEO price forecasts:

AEO 2010 Reference Scenario

AEO 2011 Reference Scenario

AEO 2011 High Shale EUR Scenario 

Note: AEO 2011 High Shale EUR Scenario is based on: "The total unproved technically 

recoverable shale gas resources are increased from 827 trillion cubic feet in the Reference 

case to 1,230 trillion cubic feet. The estimted ultimate recovery per shale gas well is 50 

percent higher than in the Reference case."

27

28

29

30

31

32

33

34

35

36

$/M

M

Btu

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

2008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026202720282029203020312032203320342035

$/M

M

Btu

Average Residential Natural Gas Prices 

AEO 2010 Reference Scenario

AEO 2011 Reference Scenario

AEO 2011 High Shale EUR Scenario

Year Div 1 Div 2 Div 3 Div 4 Div 5 Div 6 Div 7

2007 50.04 41.80 29.18 24.89 30.05 25.04 33.42

2008 51.88 43.58 30.44 25.41 31.26 27.30 37.81

2009 48.00 41.33 28.75 27.02 32.28 27.88 33.35

2010 46.62 39.68 28.17 26.82 29.39 26.97 31.56

2011 43.23 36.86 26.49 25.96 29.21 26.23 29.33

2012 46.39 40.20 27.61 26.27 30.09 26.57 31.03

2013 47.32 40.97 27.91 26.49 30.68 26.59 31.18

2014 47.61 40.40 28.14 26.73 30.61 26.61 31.23

2015 47.29 40.41 28.28 26.58 30.50 26.40 31.39

2016 47.05 41.15 28.67 26.58 30.65 26.53 31.91

2017 46.97 41.74 28.69 26.62 30.85 26.80 32.16

2018 46.85 42.01 28.67 26.54 30.89 26.85 31.99

2019 46.78 41.90 28.67 26.44 30.69 26.67 31.98

2020 46.84 42.32 28.82 26.51 30.79 26.80 32.18

2021 46.84 42.72 29.05 26.55 30.91 26.86 32.29

(in 2008$ / MMBtu)

Electricity Regional Price Forecasts - Reference Scenario (AEO 2010)

27

28

0

2008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026202720282029203020312032203320342035

Year

AEO 2011 High Shale EUR Scenario
2022 46.99 42.85 29.15 26.58 30.89 26.78 32.49

2023 47.15 43.24 29.38 26.48 30.95 26.74 32.67

2024 47.03 43.33 29.66 26.41 31.07 26.77 33.00

2025 46.73 43.12 29.56 26.22 31.05 26.73 33.21

2026 46.81 43.33 29.56 26.08 31.13 26.76 33.52

2027 47.16 43.59 29.66 26.01 31.26 26.78 33.84

2028 47.45 43.95 29.77 25.96 31.33 26.83 34.21

2029 47.89 44.77 30.02 26.01 31.71 27.08 34.93

2030 48.42 44.97 30.28 26.16 31.99 27.28 35.59

2031 48.93 45.48 30.39 26.32 32.31 27.49 36.26

2032 49.25 45.91 30.58 26.54 32.58 27.58 36.86

2033 49.44 46.12 30.67 26.46 32.67 27.66 37.24

2034 49.57 46.49 31.01 26.53 32.86 27.86 37.54

2035 49.91 46.65 31.14 26.85 33.08 27.93 37.87

Year Div 1 Div 2 Div 3 Div 4 Div 5 Div 6 Div 7

2008 52.37 44.01 30.73 25.65 31.55 27.56 35.08

2009 51.27 43.50 32.02 26.80 33.18 28.16 32.35

2010 52.60 44.48 33.68 28.27 33.42 26.75 30.94

2011 55.40 42.91 30.60 25.49 30.97 24.71 27.82

2012 56.29 44.23 30.42 25.44 31.10 24.70 28.10

2013 56.72 44.87 30.67 26.06 31.22 24.50 28.30

2014 56.03 44.80 30.61 25.92 31.10 24.22 28.40

2015 55.61 44.67 30.66 25.89 31.15 24.06 28.60

(in 2009$ / MMBtu)

Electricity Regional Price Forecasts - Reference Scenario (AEO 2011)

2015 55.61 44.67 30.66 25.89 31.15 24.06 28.60

2016 54.51 44.12 30.58 25.64 31.07 24.04 28.70

2017 53.75 43.75 30.36 25.53 31.28 24.44 28.80

2018 52.79 43.42 30.06 25.36 31.47 24.45 28.80

2019 52.33 43.18 29.75 25.21 31.56 24.45 28.57

2020 51.75 43.29 29.55 25.09 31.79 24.45 28.74

2021 51.46 42.90 29.33 24.98 31.78 24.25 28.90

2022 51.01 42.50 29.12 24.91 31.64 24.08 29.24

2023 50.42 42.17 28.97 24.96 31.62 23.76 29.55

2024 49.94 41.92 28.83 24.86 31.58 23.54 29.84

2025 49.37 41.81 28.83 24.81 31.68 23.52 30.09

2026 48.43 41.60 28.84 24.79 31.80 23.52 30.36

2027 47.89 41.37 28.81 24.67 31.89 23.54 30.66

2028 47.18 41.24 28.91 24.63 31.91 23.52 30.96

2029 46.45 41.18 29.09 24.73 31.94 23.55 31.13

2030 46.08 41.11 29.14 24.69 31.85 23.40 31.13

2031 46.05 41.02 29.22 24.67 31.91 23.40 31.39

2032 45.94 41.24 29.30 24.69 31.97 23.41 31.55

2033 45.86 41.42 29.42 24.70 32.06 23.41 31.77

2034 46.02 41.63 29.52 24.68 32.17 23.42 31.91

2035 45.91 41.93 29.68 24.72 32.33 23.33 32.32
Year Div 1 Div 2 Div 3 Div 4 Div 5 Div 6 Div 7

2008 52.37 44.01 30.73 25.65 31.55 27.56 35.08

2009 51.27 43.50 32.02 26.80 33.18 28.16 32.35

2010 52.39 44.25 33.53 28.23 33.21 26.45 30.63

2011 54.70 42.21 30.19 25.38 30.35 24.34 27.01

2012 55.32 43.02 29.64 25.12 30.32 24.14 26.72

2013 55.78 43.69 29.84 25.20 30.37 23.94 26.71

2014 55.23 43.76 29.85 25.05 30.21 23.68 26.73

2015 54.81 43.67 29.84 25.02 30.25 23.48 27.29

2016 53.47 43.19 29.60 24.73 30.17 23.37 27.42

2017 52.87 42.89 29.29 24.57 30.39 23.74 27.41

2018 52.07 42.68 28.97 24.42 30.62 23.78 27.14

2019 51.58 42.54 28.73 24.28 30.73 23.78 26.88

2020 51.68 43.16 28.78 24.25 31.01 23.75 27.00

2021 51.65 43.18 28.87 24.28 31.08 23.79 27.29

2022 50.58 42.58 28.71 24.27 30.98 23.69 27.68

2023 49.34 41.75 28.30 24.15 30.87 23.45 27.89

2024 48.22 41.10 28.11 23.98 30.78 23.39 28.21

2025 47.89 41.03 28.13 23.90 30.84 23.38 28.61

2026 46.75 40.40 27.95 23.84 30.78 23.27 28.89

2027 45.73 39.89 27.75 23.71 30.68 23.13 28.94

2028 44.78 39.61 27.68 23.66 30.59 23.03 29.01

2029 44.22 39.47 27.72 23.67 30.60 22.90 29.17

(in 2009$ / MMBtu)

Electricity Regional Price Forecasts - High Shale EUR Scenario (AEO 2011)

2029 44.22 39.47 27.72 23.67 30.60 22.90 29.17

2030 43.82 39.26 27.76 23.59 30.56 22.76 29.18

2031 43.63 39.35 27.87 23.54 30.61 22.78 29.18

2032 43.44 39.50 27.88 23.54 30.57 22.70 29.13

2033 43.12 39.33 27.88 23.53 30.50 22.67 29.20

2034 43.16 39.42 27.90 23.52 30.56 22.67 29.39

2035 43.29 39.73 28.03 23.60 30.69 22.54 29.69
27

28

29

30

31

32

33

34

35

36

2008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026202720282029203020312032203320342035

Average Residential Electricity Prices 

AEO 2010 Reference Scenario

AEO 2011 Reference Scenario

AEO 2011 High Shale EUR Scenario

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2008

$/M

M

Btu

Div 8 Div 9 Nat. Year Div 1 Div 2 Div 3 Div 4

27.89 35.43 31.82 2007 16.68 14.90 11.55 11.91

28.82 33.84 33.29 2008 16.79 15.76 12.32 11.80

28.65 32.18 32.33 2009 14.69 12.72 10.28 10.36

27.74 32.56 30.94 2010 14.47 12.10 9.77 9.85

28.49 32.43 29.90 2011 15.09 13.10 10.60 10.75

28.84 32.98 31.08 2012 15.18 13.27 10.66 10.83

28.96 33.50 31.47 2013 14.88 12.92 10.30 10.51

28.94 33.82 31.49 2014 14.73 12.74 10.26 10.43

28.92 33.57 31.43 2015 14.82 12.83 10.41 10.54

28.97 33.39 31.64 2016 14.87 12.87 10.49 10.62

29.06 33.22 31.80 2017 14.89 12.87 10.51 10.65

29.13 32.97 31.78 2018 14.96 12.90 10.58 10.72

29.24 32.77 31.68 2019 15.02 12.95 10.65 10.79

29.67 32.82 31.84 2020 15.10 13.03 10.76 10.90

30.07 32.88 32.01 2021 15.24 13.15 10.88 11.01

(in 2008$ / MMBtu)

rio (AEO 2010) Natural Gas Regional Price Forecasts - Reference Sce

27

28

2008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026202720282029203020312032203320342035

Year

0

2008
30.39 32.90 32.08 2022 15.46 13.36 11.08 11.21

30.62 32.89 32.20 2023 15.52 13.45 11.15 11.22

30.53 32.65 32.28 2024 15.49 13.45 11.09 11.11

30.76 32.58 32.26 2025 15.63 13.53 11.15 11.17

31.26 32.82 32.40 2026 15.81 13.67 11.32 11.35

31.77 32.95 32.57 2027 16.01 13.83 11.50 11.57

32.14 33.01 32.73 2028 16.27 14.06 11.76 11.82

32.65 33.18 33.13 2029 16.57 14.33 12.01 12.06

33.13 33.39 33.46 2030 16.87 14.61 12.30 12.34

33.67 33.64 33.81 2031 17.22 14.95 12.63 12.67

34.11 33.81 34.11 2032 17.40 15.10 12.77 12.83

34.44 33.90 34.26 2033 17.52 15.19 12.85 12.93

34.84 34.04 34.49 2034 17.75 15.39 13.07 13.14

35.19 34.18 34.71 2035 17.90 15.51 13.24 13.32

Div 8 Div 9 Nat. Year Div 1 Div 2 Div 3 Div 4

29.10 34.15 33.16 2008 16.99 15.93 12.49 11.91

29.84 35.60 33.62 2009 16.39 14.53 10.61 10.06

27.40 34.74 33.53 2010 14.56 12.64 9.92 9.84

25.90 34.69 31.50 2011 13.20 11.56 9.17 9.11

26.60 34.66 31.71 2012 13.10 11.50 8.90 9.06

27.13 34.45 31.89 2013 12.98 11.37 8.84 9.02

27.28 34.52 31.81 2014 12.82 11.14 8.77 8.94

27.57 34.36 31.80 2015 12.91 11.17 8.89 9.04

(in 2009$ / MMBtu)

rio (AEO 2011) Natural Gas Regional Price Forecasts - Reference Sce

27.57 34.36 31.80 2015 12.91 11.17 8.89 9.04

27.44 33.56 31.58 2016 13.03 11.25 9.01 9.16

27.57 33.17 31.56 2017 13.21 11.34 9.10 9.28

27.67 32.79 31.47 2018 13.40 11.47 9.21 9.43

27.81 32.49 31.35 2019 13.65 11.63 9.35 9.62

27.88 32.21 31.36 2020 13.91 11.80 9.62 9.93

28.07 31.97 31.28 2021 14.15 11.98 9.83 10.13

28.32 31.97 31.22 2022 14.34 12.14 9.98 10.27

28.68 31.82 31.18 2023 14.54 12.30 10.17 10.44

29.07 31.70 31.15 2024 14.72 12.46 10.39 10.64

29.34 31.73 31.20 2025 14.94 12.63 10.58 10.80

29.71 31.74 31.25 2026 15.12 12.75 10.73 10.94

30.06 31.33 31.26 2027 15.32 12.91 10.90 11.13

30.35 30.96 31.26 2028 15.50 13.04 11.00 11.24

30.68 30.76 31.30 2029 15.70 13.18 11.07 11.32

30.75 30.30 31.21 2030 15.89 13.32 11.14 11.41

30.92 30.05 31.25 2031 16.08 13.47 11.26 11.52

31.14 29.78 31.31 2032 16.24 13.57 11.40 11.66

31.37 29.58 31.39 2033 16.44 13.72 11.58 11.86

31.57 29.58 31.49 2034 16.60 13.82 11.78 12.05

31.84 29.82 31.67 2035 16.78 13.95 12.03 12.32
Div 8 Div 9 Nat. Year Div 1 Div 2 Div 3 Div 4

29.10 34.15 33.16 2008 16.99 15.93 12.49 11.91

29.84 35.60 33.62 2009 16.39 14.53 10.61 10.06

27.28 34.64 33.33 2010 14.10 12.15 9.43 9.43

25.58 34.49 30.99 2011 12.61 10.94 8.50 8.53

25.98 34.35 30.91 2012 12.36 10.74 8.12 8.36

26.11 34.10 30.96 2013 12.14 10.49 7.95 8.20

26.22 34.13 30.86 2014 11.89 10.18 7.84 8.06

26.53 33.95 30.90 2015 11.91 10.13 7.89 8.10

26.47 33.34 30.68 2016 11.98 10.16 7.95 8.15

26.57 32.94 30.64 2017 12.12 10.23 8.01 8.23

26.72 32.49 30.52 2018 12.29 10.32 8.12 8.38

26.74 31.94 30.39 2019 12.44 10.40 8.23 8.53

27.21 31.99 30.57 2020 12.59 10.46 8.32 8.64

27.47 31.83 30.67 2021 12.74 10.56 8.49 8.82

27.71 31.61 30.58 2022 12.86 10.65 8.62 8.95

27.97 31.21 30.36 2023 13.04 10.80 8.79 9.12

28.15 30.97 30.25 2024 13.14 10.86 8.99 9.30

28.47 30.94 30.33 2025 13.27 10.95 9.15 9.45

28.82 30.81 30.24 2026 13.39 11.03 9.32 9.61

29.07 30.57 30.09 2027 13.50 11.10 9.45 9.73

29.40 30.43 30.01 2028 13.58 11.14 9.61 9.89

29.59 30.00 29.97 2029 13.67 11.19 9.74 10.01

(in 2009$ / MMBtu)

enario (AEO 2011) Natural Gas Regional Price Forecasts - High Shale EUR S

29.59 30.00 29.97 2029 13.67 11.19 9.74 10.01

29.66 29.58 29.88 2030 13.75 11.22 9.84 10.10

29.93 29.44 29.91 2031 13.83 11.25 9.92 10.19

30.17 29.24 29.89 2032 13.87 11.25 9.99 10.26

30.43 29.07 29.85 2033 13.98 11.31 10.13 10.42

30.59 29.07 29.92 2034 14.05 11.33 10.32 10.60

30.79 29.22 30.07 2035 14.10 11.34 10.51 10.80
2008

200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026202720282029203020312032203320342035

Average Residential LPG Prices 

AEO 2010 Reference Scenario

AEO 2011 Reference Scenario

AEO 2011 High Shale EUR Scenario

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

200820092010

$/M

M

Btu

Div 5 Div 6 Div 7 Div 8 Div 9 Nat. Year Div 1

16.13 13.85 12.28 10.87 11.92 12.94 2007 31.19

16.64 14.56 13.34 10.94 12.40 13.48 2008 34.05

13.55 11.68 10.64 10.15 11.25 11.39 2009 28.85

12.96 11.08 10.08 9.87 10.79 10.89 2010 27.07

13.89 11.89 10.97 10.84 11.61 11.78 2011 27.15

14.03 12.00 11.09 10.84 11.65 11.87 2012 28.31

13.63 11.67 10.74 10.34 11.07 11.48 2013 29.52

13.64 11.71 10.75 10.32 11.00 11.41 2014 30.48

13.82 11.92 10.93 10.47 11.16 11.56 2015 31.07

13.91 12.03 11.01 10.63 11.31 11.65 2016 31.71

13.93 12.05 11.00 10.73 11.42 11.69 2017 32.24

13.98 12.11 11.03 10.84 11.52 11.76 2018 32.82

14.05 12.21 11.08 10.95 11.61 11.83 2019 33.08

14.18 12.35 11.19 11.11 11.76 11.95 2020 33.31

14.33 12.52 11.32 11.18 11.82 12.07 2021 33.54

(in 2008$ / MMBtu)

gional Price Forecasts - Reference Scenario (AEO 2010)

2008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026202720282029203020312032203320342035

Year

0

200820092010
14.56 12.76 11.53 11.33 11.92 12.26 2022 33.74

14.70 12.92 11.65 11.08 11.79 12.29 2023 34.02

14.76 12.99 11.68 10.78 11.44 12.20 2024 34.29

14.85 13.08 11.73 10.99 11.57 12.29 2025 34.55

14.99 13.22 11.83 11.24 11.78 12.46 2026 34.70

15.15 13.37 11.94 11.49 12.04 12.66 2027 34.97

15.41 13.64 12.17 11.75 12.25 12.90 2028 35.22

15.71 13.95 12.43 11.98 12.49 13.16 2029 35.57

16.01 14.31 12.74 12.21 12.71 13.44 2030 35.79

16.38 14.70 13.08 12.52 13.01 13.78 2031 36.15

16.55 14.83 13.17 12.69 13.18 13.93 2032 36.48

16.63 14.90 13.18 12.84 13.31 14.03 2033 36.86

16.81 15.12 13.36 13.06 13.56 14.25 2034 37.22

16.90 15.34 13.53 13.21 13.73 14.40 2035 37.61

Div 5 Div 6 Div 7 Div 8 Div 9 Nat. Year Div 1

16.62 14.64 13.46 11.05 12.54 13.62 2008 34.44

14.69 12.90 11.39 10.08 10.10 11.88 2009 28.57

13.17 11.26 10.03 9.76 10.67 11.02 2010 30.69

12.56 10.67 9.77 9.18 9.94 10.29 2011 30.97

12.47 10.68 9.70 9.18 9.91 10.16 2012 32.08

12.48 10.73 9.71 9.20 9.88 10.11 2013 32.54

12.40 10.69 9.61 9.13 9.77 10.01 2014 33.00

12.56 10.89 9.75 9.27 9.85 10.12 2015 33.36

(in 2009$ / MMBtu)

gional Price Forecasts - Reference Scenario (AEO 2011)

12.56 10.89 9.75 9.27 9.85 10.12 2015 33.36

12.65 10.98 9.81 9.40 9.95 10.22 2016 33.79

12.73 11.04 9.83 9.50 10.11 10.33 2017 34.33

12.81 11.10 9.85 9.63 10.31 10.45 2018 34.85

12.91 11.18 9.89 9.76 10.54 10.61 2019 35.33

13.13 11.45 10.12 10.00 10.84 10.86 2020 35.76

13.35 11.69 10.31 10.24 11.09 11.08 2021 36.17

13.56 11.89 10.45 10.42 11.24 11.25 2022 36.51

13.81 12.14 10.66 10.62 11.40 11.44 2023 36.85

14.06 12.42 10.89 10.84 11.56 11.65 2024 37.15

14.31 12.67 11.09 11.00 11.71 11.83 2025 37.43

14.50 12.86 11.23 11.17 11.87 11.99 2026 37.69

14.70 13.03 11.35 11.42 12.08 12.18 2027 37.91

14.84 13.13 11.39 11.56 12.20 12.30 2028 38.09

14.94 13.18 11.39 11.70 12.34 12.40 2029 38.26

15.04 13.28 11.43 11.83 12.47 12.51 2030 38.38

15.22 13.46 11.55 11.96 12.58 12.65 2031 38.45

15.39 13.66 11.71 12.11 12.73 12.79 2032 38.47

15.58 13.86 11.84 12.33 12.95 12.98 2033 38.49

15.78 14.09 12.01 12.53 13.15 13.16 2034 38.49

16.05 14.39 12.23 12.76 13.41 13.39 2035 38.49
Div 5 Div 6 Div 7 Div 8 Div 9 Nat. Year Div 1

16.62 14.64 13.46 11.05 12.54 13.62 2008 34.44

14.69 12.90 11.39 10.08 10.10 11.88 2009 28.57

12.67 10.75 9.52 9.40 10.35 10.57 2010 30.69

11.82 9.90 9.02 8.66 9.46 9.66 2011 30.97

11.61 9.78 8.82 8.56 9.31 9.41 2012 32.18

11.50 9.72 8.72 8.45 9.17 9.25 2013 32.63

11.36 9.65 8.60 8.28 8.96 9.08 2014 33.06

11.44 9.78 8.69 8.32 8.98 9.12 2015 33.46

11.49 9.85 8.71 8.36 9.01 9.17 2016 33.90

11.55 9.90 8.72 8.44 9.14 9.24 2017 34.51

11.62 9.95 8.74 8.55 9.35 9.36 2018 35.08

11.71 10.02 8.76 8.70 9.54 9.48 2019 35.57

11.83 10.13 8.83 8.83 9.71 9.59 2020 35.99

11.99 10.33 8.98 9.04 9.90 9.75 2021 36.38

12.15 10.50 9.11 9.19 10.04 9.89 2022 36.74

12.31 10.69 9.25 9.38 10.21 10.06 2023 37.09

12.53 10.97 9.48 9.56 10.35 10.23 2024 37.40

12.71 11.16 9.62 9.73 10.52 10.38 2025 37.66

12.89 11.36 9.77 9.92 10.68 10.54 2026 37.98

12.95 11.51 9.88 10.08 10.82 10.65 2027 38.20

13.13 11.69 10.01 10.28 10.98 10.79 2028 38.28

13.34 11.85 10.11 10.44 11.14 10.92 2029 38.44

(in 2009$ / MMBtu)

onal Price Forecasts - High Shale EUR Scenario (AEO 2011)

13.34 11.85 10.11 10.44 11.14 10.92 2029 38.44

13.50 11.98 10.19 10.57 11.27 11.02 2030 38.69

13.68 12.09 10.24 10.73 11.43 11.13 2031 38.77

13.87 12.17 10.27 10.85 11.54 11.20 2032 38.82

14.06 12.38 10.42 11.07 11.71 11.35 2033 38.81

14.31 12.63 10.61 11.24 11.91 11.51 2034 38.83

14.53 12.88 10.79 11.41 12.10 11.67 2035 38.82
2010

2011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026202720282029203020312032203320342035

Average Residential Fuel Oil Prices 

AEO 2010 Reference Scenario

AEO 2011 Reference Scenario

AEO 2011 High Shale EUR Scenario

Div 2 Div 3 Div 4 Div 5 Div 6 Div 7 Div 8 Div 9 Nat.

30.76 22.56 22.56 28.67 27.75 27.75 23.98 28.95 26.25

33.69 26.37 23.08 32.82 30.87 30.44 28.23 34.34 29.35

28.55 22.34 19.55 27.81 26.16 25.79 23.93 29.10 24.90

27.17 21.82 19.25 26.87 25.39 25.18 23.34 26.28 24.01

27.25 21.90 19.34 26.95 25.48 25.26 23.43 26.36 24.09

28.41 23.06 20.49 28.11 26.63 26.42 24.58 27.52 25.25

29.62 24.28 21.71 29.33 27.85 27.63 25.80 28.73 26.47

30.58 25.23 22.67 30.28 28.81 28.59 26.76 29.69 27.44

31.17 25.82 23.25 30.87 29.39 29.18 27.34 30.28 28.03

31.81 26.46 23.89 31.51 30.03 29.82 27.98 30.92 28.67

32.34 26.99 24.43 32.04 30.57 30.35 28.52 31.45 29.21

32.92 27.58 25.01 32.63 31.15 30.94 29.10 32.04 29.80

33.18 27.83 25.26 32.88 31.40 31.19 29.35 32.29 30.06

33.41 28.06 25.49 33.11 31.63 31.42 29.58 32.52 30.29

33.64 28.29 25.72 33.34 31.87 31.65 29.82 32.75 30.53

(in 2008$ / MMBtu)

LPG Regional Price Forecasts - Reference Scenario (AEO 2010)

20102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026202720282029203020312032203320342035

Year

AEO 2011 High Shale EUR Scenario
33.84 28.50 25.93 33.55 32.07 31.86 30.02 32.96 30.73

34.12 28.77 26.20 33.82 32.35 32.13 30.30 33.23 31.01

34.39 29.04 26.47 34.09 32.61 32.40 30.56 33.50 31.28

34.65 29.30 26.73 34.35 32.87 32.66 30.82 33.76 31.55

34.80 29.45 26.88 34.50 33.02 32.81 30.97 33.91 31.70

35.07 29.72 27.15 34.77 33.29 33.08 31.24 34.18 31.98

35.32 29.97 27.40 35.02 33.54 33.33 31.49 34.43 32.23

35.67 30.32 27.75 35.37 33.89 33.68 31.84 34.78 32.59

35.89 30.54 27.97 35.59 34.12 33.90 32.07 35.00 32.81

36.25 30.90 28.33 35.95 34.47 34.26 32.42 35.36 33.17

36.58 31.23 28.66 36.28 34.80 34.59 32.75 35.69 33.51

36.96 31.62 29.05 36.67 35.19 34.98 33.14 36.08 33.90

37.32 31.98 29.41 37.03 35.55 35.34 33.50 36.44 34.26

37.71 32.36 29.79 37.41 35.93 35.72 33.88 36.82 34.65

Div 2 Div 3 Div 4 Div 5 Div 6 Div 7 Div 8 Div 9 Nat.

34.07 26.68 23.34 33.19 31.23 30.79 28.55 34.73 29.46

28.37 22.19 19.40 27.30 25.93 25.49 23.66 28.66 24.63

30.48 23.83 20.84 29.33 27.86 27.39 25.42 30.79 26.49

30.75 24.05 21.04 29.60 28.11 27.64 25.66 31.08 26.72

32.56 26.32 23.53 31.77 29.98 28.62 28.11 30.07 28.50

33.01 26.78 23.99 32.22 30.44 29.07 28.57 30.53 28.96

33.47 27.23 24.45 32.68 30.90 29.53 29.03 30.98 29.42

33.83 27.59 24.81 33.04 31.26 29.89 29.39 31.34 29.79

(in 2009$ / MMBtu)

LPG Regional Price Forecasts - Reference Scenario (AEO 2011)

33.83 27.59 24.81 33.04 31.26 29.89 29.39 31.34 29.79

34.26 28.02 25.24 33.47 31.69 30.32 29.82 31.77 30.22

34.81 28.57 25.78 34.01 32.23 30.86 30.36 32.32 30.77

35.32 29.08 26.30 34.53 32.74 31.38 30.87 32.83 31.29

35.81 29.57 26.78 35.02 33.23 31.87 31.36 33.32 31.78

36.24 30.00 27.22 35.45 33.66 32.30 31.79 33.75 32.21

36.64 30.40 27.62 35.85 34.07 32.70 32.20 34.15 32.62

36.98 30.74 27.96 36.19 34.41 33.04 32.54 34.49 32.97

37.32 31.08 28.30 36.53 34.75 33.38 32.88 34.83 33.31

37.62 31.38 28.60 36.83 35.05 33.68 33.18 35.13 33.61

37.90 31.67 28.88 37.11 35.33 33.96 33.46 35.41 33.90

38.17 31.93 29.14 37.38 35.59 34.23 33.72 35.68 34.17

38.38 32.14 29.36 37.59 35.81 34.44 33.94 35.89 34.39

38.57 32.33 29.54 37.78 35.99 34.63 34.12 36.08 34.58

38.73 32.49 29.71 37.94 36.16 34.79 34.29 36.24 34.75

38.85 32.62 29.83 38.06 36.28 34.91 34.41 36.37 34.87

38.93 32.69 29.90 38.13 36.35 34.98 34.48 36.44 34.95

38.94 32.71 29.92 38.15 36.37 35.00 34.50 36.46 34.97

38.96 32.72 29.94 38.17 36.39 35.02 34.52 36.47 34.99

38.96 32.73 29.94 38.17 36.39 35.02 34.52 36.48 35.00

38.97 32.73 29.94 38.18 36.39 35.03 34.52 36.48 35.01
Div 2 Div 3 Div 4 Div 5 Div 6 Div 7 Div 8 Div 9 Nat.

34.07 26.68 23.34 33.19 31.23 30.79 28.55 34.73 29.46

28.37 22.19 19.40 27.30 25.93 25.49 23.66 28.66 24.63

30.48 23.83 20.84 29.33 27.86 27.39 25.42 30.79 26.49

30.75 24.05 21.04 29.60 28.11 27.64 25.66 31.08 26.72

32.65 26.42 23.63 31.86 30.08 28.71 28.21 30.16 28.60

33.11 26.87 24.08 32.32 30.53 29.17 28.66 30.62 29.06

33.53 27.30 24.51 32.74 30.96 29.59 29.09 31.04 29.49

33.93 27.69 24.91 33.14 31.36 29.99 29.49 31.44 29.89

34.37 28.14 25.35 33.58 31.80 30.43 29.93 31.89 30.33

34.98 28.75 25.96 34.19 32.41 31.04 30.54 32.50 30.95

35.55 29.31 26.53 34.76 32.98 31.61 31.11 33.06 31.52

36.05 29.81 27.03 35.26 33.47 32.11 31.60 33.56 32.02

36.46 30.23 27.44 35.67 33.89 32.52 32.02 33.98 32.44

36.85 30.61 27.83 36.06 34.28 32.91 32.41 34.36 32.83

37.21 30.97 28.19 36.42 34.64 33.27 32.77 34.72 33.20

37.56 31.32 28.54 36.77 34.99 33.62 33.12 35.07 33.55

37.87 31.63 28.85 37.08 35.30 33.93 33.43 35.38 33.87

38.14 31.90 29.11 37.34 35.56 34.19 33.69 35.65 34.14

38.45 32.21 29.43 37.66 35.88 34.51 34.01 35.96 34.46

38.68 32.44 29.65 37.88 36.10 34.73 34.23 36.19 34.68

38.75 32.51 29.73 37.96 36.18 34.81 34.31 36.26 34.77

38.92 32.68 29.89 38.13 36.34 34.98 34.47 36.43 34.93

(in 2009$ / MMBtu)

LPG Regional Price Forecasts - High Shale EUR Scenario (AEO 2011)

38.92 32.68 29.89 38.13 36.34 34.98 34.47 36.43 34.93

39.17 32.93 30.14 38.38 36.59 35.23 34.72 36.68 35.19

39.24 33.00 30.22 38.45 36.67 35.30 34.80 36.75 35.27

39.29 33.05 30.27 38.50 36.72 35.35 34.85 36.80 35.32

39.28 33.05 30.26 38.49 36.71 35.34 34.84 36.80 35.32

39.30 33.07 30.28 38.51 36.73 35.36 34.86 36.82 35.34

39.29 33.05 30.27 38.50 36.72 35.35 34.85 36.80 35.33
Year Div 1 Div 2 Div 3 Div 4 Div 5 Div 6 Div 7

2007 20.08 20.47 19.60 19.36 20.33 21.67 19.16

2008 24.40 24.75 24.13 24.48 23.56 24.40 24.10

2009 17.94 18.19 17.74 17.99 17.32 17.94 17.70

2010 17.62 18.04 15.95 15.50 16.75 15.66 16.93

2011 17.76 18.18 16.12 15.67 16.89 15.81 17.06

2012 18.86 19.27 17.20 16.75 17.97 16.90 18.14

2013 19.88 20.29 18.28 17.82 18.97 17.98 19.14

2014 20.59 21.02 18.93 18.47 19.66 18.65 19.84

2015 21.10 21.54 19.45 18.98 20.16 19.19 20.33

2016 22.03 22.50 20.39 19.92 21.08 20.14 21.25

2017 22.66 23.15 21.03 20.56 21.70 20.78 21.87

2018 23.32 23.82 21.67 21.20 22.36 21.43 22.52

2019 23.75 24.25 22.10 21.62 22.78 21.86 22.95

2020 24.11 24.61 22.44 21.97 23.14 22.21 23.30

2021 24.25 24.75 22.58 22.11 23.28 22.35 23.44

(in 2008$ / MMBtu)

Oil Regional Price Forecasts - Reference Scenario (AEO 2010)
2022 24.45 24.95 22.78 22.30 23.48 22.55 23.63

2023 24.76 25.26 23.09 22.61 23.79 22.86 23.94

2024 24.95 25.45 23.27 22.80 23.97 23.04 24.13

2025 25.24 25.74 23.55 23.08 24.26 23.33 24.41

2026 25.51 26.01 23.82 23.34 24.53 23.60 24.68

2027 25.72 26.22 24.02 23.55 24.74 23.81 24.89

2028 26.04 26.53 24.34 23.86 25.06 24.12 25.20

2029 26.44 26.94 24.73 24.26 25.46 24.52 25.60

2030 26.60 27.09 24.88 24.41 25.61 24.68 25.76

2031 27.04 27.53 25.31 24.84 26.05 25.11 26.19

2032 27.43 27.92 25.70 25.22 26.44 25.50 26.58

2033 27.83 28.29 26.06 25.58 26.83 25.86 26.96

2034 28.24 28.71 26.48 26.00 27.24 26.29 27.37

2035 28.65 29.13 26.88 26.40 27.64 26.70 27.77

Year Div 1 Div 2 Div 3 Div 4 Div 5 Div 6 Div 7

2008 24.68 25.03 24.41 24.76 23.83 24.68 24.37

2009 18.08 18.33 17.87 18.14 17.45 18.04 17.43

2010 20.63 20.92 20.40 20.70 19.92 20.58 19.89

2011 21.61 21.90 21.36 21.68 20.85 21.55 20.82

2012 19.87 20.45 18.32 17.86 18.95 18.03 19.12

2013 20.25 20.82 18.68 18.22 19.32 18.40 19.49

2014 20.69 21.22 19.08 18.62 19.73 18.79 19.90

2015 21.11 21.64 19.47 19.01 20.10 19.19 20.27

(in 2009$ / MMBtu)

Oil Regional Price Forecasts - Reference Scenario (AEO 2011)

2015 21.11 21.64 19.47 19.01 20.10 19.19 20.27

2016 21.94 22.52 20.28 19.82 20.92 20.00 21.08

2017 22.66 23.25 20.97 20.50 21.61 20.70 21.77

2018 23.33 23.89 21.57 21.11 22.24 21.31 22.41

2019 23.91 24.48 22.14 21.67 22.81 21.88 22.98

2020 24.25 24.82 22.47 22.00 23.14 22.19 23.30

2021 24.54 25.11 22.67 22.20 23.39 22.41 23.55

2022 24.94 25.60 22.92 22.45 23.64 22.67 23.80

2023 25.16 25.78 23.19 22.72 23.93 22.94 24.08

2024 25.66 26.32 23.61 23.13 24.35 23.36 24.50

2025 25.88 26.51 23.87 23.40 24.62 23.63 24.77

2026 26.12 26.73 24.13 23.66 24.88 23.89 25.03

2027 26.41 27.06 24.35 23.87 25.10 24.10 25.24

2028 26.63 27.26 24.60 24.12 25.35 24.36 25.49

2029 26.91 27.58 24.80 24.33 25.56 24.57 25.70

2030 26.89 27.46 24.97 24.50 25.72 24.73 25.86

2031 26.97 27.58 25.06 24.59 25.81 24.82 25.96

2032 27.06 27.67 25.16 24.68 25.92 24.92 26.06

2033 27.11 27.74 25.20 24.73 25.96 24.97 26.10

2034 27.31 27.94 25.40 24.93 26.16 25.16 26.30

2035 27.44 28.07 25.53 25.06 26.28 25.30 26.42
Year Div 1 Div 2 Div 3 Div 4 Div 5 Div 6 Div 7

2008 24.68 25.03 24.41 24.76 23.83 24.68 24.37

2009 18.08 18.33 17.87 18.14 17.45 18.04 17.43

2010 20.63 20.92 20.40 20.70 19.92 20.58 19.89

2011 21.61 21.90 21.36 21.68 20.85 21.55 20.82

2012 19.85 20.42 18.29 17.83 18.93 17.98 19.10

2013 20.33 20.86 18.72 18.26 19.41 18.43 19.57

2014 20.73 21.27 19.12 18.66 19.76 18.84 19.93

2015 21.19 21.75 19.55 19.09 20.19 19.27 20.35

2016 21.86 22.44 20.20 19.74 20.84 19.93 21.00

2017 22.60 23.16 20.90 20.43 21.54 20.63 21.70

2018 23.25 23.81 21.50 21.04 22.17 21.24 22.34

2019 23.81 24.36 22.00 21.53 22.71 21.74 22.87

2020 24.15 24.70 22.31 21.84 23.03 22.05 23.20

2021 24.34 24.90 22.48 22.01 23.21 22.22 23.37

2022 24.75 25.36 22.79 22.32 23.51 22.53 23.68

2023 25.15 25.76 23.18 22.71 23.92 22.93 24.08

2024 25.55 26.20 23.50 23.02 24.24 23.25 24.39

2025 25.80 26.49 23.74 23.27 24.49 23.49 24.64

2026 26.06 26.75 24.05 23.58 24.79 23.81 24.94

2027 26.29 26.96 24.28 23.81 25.03 24.04 25.18

2028 26.68 27.43 24.52 24.04 25.26 24.29 25.41

2029 27.18 27.93 24.98 24.50 25.71 24.76 25.87

(in 2009$ / MMBtu)

Fuel Oil Regional Price Forecasts - High Shale EUR Scenario (AEO 2011)

2029 27.18 27.93 24.98 24.50 25.71 24.76 25.87

2030 27.06 27.69 25.10 24.63 25.85 24.87 25.99

2031 27.07 27.70 25.13 24.66 25.88 24.89 26.03

2032 27.20 27.81 25.30 24.83 26.05 25.06 26.19

2033 27.17 27.78 25.26 24.79 26.01 25.02 26.15

2034 27.31 27.91 25.42 24.95 26.17 25.19 26.31

2035 27.33 27.93 25.44 24.96 26.19 25.20 26.33
Div 8 Div 9 Nat.

20.52 22.57 20.30

24.48 24.50 24.47

17.99 18.01 17.98

15.97 16.71 17.57

16.25 16.98 17.72

17.32 19.10 18.84

18.35 20.08 19.86

19.04 20.83 20.58

19.54 20.89 21.08

20.45 20.96 22.00

21.06 22.06 22.66

21.75 22.58 23.32

22.19 22.85 23.74

22.50 22.91 24.10

22.67 23.20 24.24
22.88 23.20 24.44

23.14 23.56 24.76

23.36 23.76 24.94

23.65 23.93 25.23

23.88 24.07 25.50

24.12 24.59 25.72

24.44 24.89 26.04

24.83 25.24 26.44

24.98 25.68 26.61

25.41 26.18 27.05

25.80 26.65 27.45

26.10 26.55 27.82

26.51 26.94 28.24

26.98 27.64 28.66

Div 8 Div 9 Nat.

24.76 24.78 24.75

18.13 18.16 18.12

20.68 20.72 20.68

21.67 21.70 21.67

18.45 19.66 19.93

18.74 20.04 20.30

19.15 20.44 20.72

19.52 20.82 21.14

20.32 21.36 21.98

21.01 21.84 22.70

21.64 22.33 23.34

22.20 22.88 23.93

22.53 23.38 24.27

22.77 23.95 24.56

23.02 24.35 24.98

23.30 24.64 25.20

23.74 25.01 25.70

24.01 25.29 25.92

24.25 25.58 26.16

24.47 25.88 26.46

24.70 26.06 26.67

24.90 26.31 26.97

25.16 26.61 26.93

25.24 26.64 27.04

25.33 26.54 27.13

25.37 26.53 27.19

25.56 26.60 27.39

25.72 26.75 27.53
Div 8 Div 9 Nat.

24.76 24.78 24.75

18.13 18.16 18.12

20.68 20.72 20.68

21.67 21.70 21.67

18.41 19.64 19.90

18.83 20.05 20.36

19.17 20.34 20.76

19.60 20.71 21.22

20.24 21.22 21.90

20.94 21.77 22.62

21.60 22.35 23.26

22.10 22.85 23.82

22.42 23.28 24.16

22.61 23.78 24.35

22.93 24.14 24.78

23.35 24.50 25.18

23.68 24.76 25.58

23.92 25.01 25.86

24.23 25.34 26.13

24.46 25.62 26.35

24.67 25.87 26.76

25.08 26.21 27.25

nario (AEO 2011)

25.25 26.48 27.12

25.29 26.44 27.14

25.38 26.30 27.26

25.41 26.33 27.23

25.53 26.34 27.38

25.54 26.37 27.40
Fixed 16 year Lifetime

APGA Request: Fixed Furnace Lifetime of 16 years. This value is consistent with the lifetime for “Warm A

Simulation Results NATIONAL - 10000 samples

Installed Lifetime LCC Net

Level Description Price Oper. Cost* LCC Savings Cost

NWGF

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $1,786 $7,113 $8,899

1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $2,357 $6,422 $8,779 -$4 28% 

2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,419 $6,299 $8,717 $24 29% 

3 95% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,564 $6,123 $8,688 $44 41% 

4 98% AFUE - Max Tech $2,830 $6,049 $8,879 -$146 73% 

MHGF

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $1,432 $11,636 $13,068

1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $2,040 $10,611 $12,651 $375 43% 

2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,248 $10,404 $12,652 $373 46% 

3 96% AFUE - Max Tech $2,540 $10,015 $12,555 $466 50% 

OF

0 82% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,008 $30,058 $33,066

1 83% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,157 $29,719 $32,876 $14 10% 

2 84% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,394 $29,389 $32,783 -$15 25% 

3 85% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,622 $29,066 $32,688 -$22 35% 

4 97% AFUE - Max Tech $4,810 $27,596 $32,406 $261 51% 

All dollar values are in 2009 $ * discounted and summed over lifetime of equipment

Simulation Results NORTH

Installed Lifetime LCC Net

Level Description Price Oper. Cost* LCC Savings Cost

NWGF 5,986

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $1,901 $8,557 $10,458

1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $2,474 $7,712 $10,185 $72 12% 

2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,536 $7,561 $10,097 $110 13% 

3 95% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,685 $7,346 $10,031 $160 27% 

4 98% AFUE - Max Tech $2,943 $7,255 $10,197 -$5 70% 

MHGF 4,892

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $1,488 $13,046 $14,534

1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $2,112 $11,962 $14,074 $421 43% 

2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,318 $11,729 $14,047 $445 45% 

3 96% AFUE - Max Tech $2,611 $11,290 $13,901 $585 48% 

OF 8,939

0 82% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,063 $30,586 $33,649

1 83% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,216 $30,241 $33,457 $12 10% 

2 84% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,460 $29,905 $33,365 -$21 25% 

3 85% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,692 $29,576 $33,268 -$27 35% 

4 97% AFUE - Max Tech $4,897 $28,093 $32,990 $253 51% 

Average LCC Results

Average LCC Results
All dollar values are in 2009 $ * discounted and summed over lifetime of equipment

Simulation Results SOUTH

Installed Lifetime LCC Net

Level Description Price Oper. Cost* LCC Savings Cost

NWGF 4,014

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $1,614 $4,961 $6,575

1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $2,182 $4,499 $6,681 -$117 52% 

2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,244 $4,416 $6,660 -$105 53% 

3 95% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,384 $4,300 $6,684 -$129 62% 

4 98% AFUE - Max Tech $2,661 $4,251 $6,912 -$357 78% 

MHGF 5,108

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $1,340 $11,221 $12,561

1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $1,916 $10,158 $12,074 $331 44% 

2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,124 $9,958 $12,083 $305 47% 

3 96% AFUE - Max Tech $2,415 $9,584 $11,999 $352 52% 

OF 1,061

0 82% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,549 $25,610 $28,159

1 83% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,656 $25,323 $27,979 $28 9% 

2 84% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,832 $25,042 $27,875 $28 22% 

3 85% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,027 $24,768 $27,796 $24 32% 

4 97% AFUE - Max Tech $4,074 $23,413 $27,488 $325 51% 

All dollar values are in 2009 $ * discounted and summed over lifetime of equipment

Average LCC Results
with the lifetime for “Warm Air Gas Furnaces cited in DOE’s “Multi-Year Program Plan,” October 2010, page 33.

AEO 2010 - Reference Case Simulation Results NATIONAL - Replacements

Payback Results

No Net Installed

Impact Benefit Median Average Level Description Price

NWGF

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $1,590

52% 20% 15.8 33.6 1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $2,357

42% 29% 11.9 28.2 2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,417

17% 42% 11.7 24.2 3 95% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,556

0% 26% 20.1 44.2 4 98% AFUE - Max Tech $2,802

MHGF

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $1,216

10% 47% 10.5 17.9 1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $1,870

8% 46% 11.6 19.2 2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,097

4% 46% 11.9 19.2 3 96% AFUE - Max Tech $2,385

OF

0 82% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,846

58% 32% 1.0 23.9 1 83% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,986

39% 37% 1.9 33.8 2 84% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,253

33% 32% 19.8 33.5 3 85% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,509

1% 48% 18.2 48.2 4 97% AFUE - Max Tech $4,828

All dollar values are in 2009 $

AEO 2010 - Reference Case Simulation Results NORTH - Replacements

Payback Results

No Net Installed

Impact Benefit Median Average Level Description Price

NWGF 4,465

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $1,713

71% 17% 10.1 12.8 1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $2,483

56% 31% 7.7 10.1 2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,543

23% 50% 9.4 11.3 3 95% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,687

1% 30% 17.1 28.2 4 98% AFUE - Max Tech $2,925

MHGF 2,451

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $1,413

10% 47% 10.7 17.2 1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $2,166

8% 47% 11.4 17.5 2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,410

3% 48% 11.5 16.6 3 96% AFUE - Max Tech $2,727

OF 8,033

0 82% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,896

58% 32% 1.0 24.4 1 83% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,041

39% 37% 2.0 34.9 2 84% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,317

33% 32% 20.0 34.4 3 85% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,577

1% 48% 18.2 48.8 4 97% AFUE - Max Tech $4,918
All dollar values are in 2009 $

AEO 2010 - Reference Case Simulation Results SOUTH - Replacements

Payback Results

No Net Installed

Impact Benefit Median Average Level Description Price

NWGF 3,044

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $1,411

24% 24% 24.1 45.4 1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $2,173

20% 27% 21.3 42.9 2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,231

8% 30% 20.5 40.3 3 95% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,365

0% 21% 28.9 67.5 4 98% AFUE - Max Tech $2,623

MHGF 2,547

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $1,026

10% 47% 10.3 18.5 1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $1,586

8% 45% 11.8 20.9 2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $1,796

4% 45% 12.4 21.7 3 96% AFUE - Max Tech $2,056

OF 967

0 82% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,430

60% 32% 1.1 19.6 1 83% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,531

39% 39% 1.5 24.8 2 84% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,726

33% 35% 17.2 26.2 3 85% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,942

1% 48% 18.2 43.8 4 97% AFUE - Max Tech $4,082

All dollar values are in 2009 $
2010, page 33.

AEO 2010 - Reference Case

Payback Results

Lifetime LCC Net No Net

Oper. Cost* LCC Savings Cost Impact Benefit Median Average

$7,068 $8,659

$6,381 $8,739 -$99 35% 52% 13% 21.1 41.6 

$6,259 $8,675 -$70 35% 42% 23% 15.3 34.3 

$6,084 $8,641 -$45 46% 17% 37% 13.0 27.5 

$6,008 $8,811 -$214 76% 0% 23% 20.7 45.4 

$11,352 $12,568

$10,337 $12,208 $237 46% 9% 37% 11.8 19.8 

$10,134 $12,231 $199 49% 7% 36% 13.0 21.7 

$9,752 $12,137 $261 52% 3% 37% 13.0 21.2 

$30,039 $32,885

$29,700 $32,687 $8 10% 58% 32% 0.9 24.6 

$29,370 $32,623 -$51 27% 39% 34% 2.0 37.0 

$29,047 $32,556 -$85 38% 33% 29% 22.5 37.0 

$27,585 $32,413 $61 56% 1% 43% 20.0 52.7 

* discounted and summed over lifetime of equipment

AEO 2010 - Reference Case

Payback Results

Lifetime LCC Net No Net

Oper. Cost* LCC Savings Cost Impact Benefit Median Average

$8,519 $10,232

$7,677 $10,160 $12 15% 72% 13% 12.9 15.9 

$7,527 $10,070 $50 16% 57% 27% 9.0 11.7 

$7,313 $10,000 $104 29% 23% 48% 9.7 11.9 

$7,220 $10,145 -$41 71% 1% 28% 16.9 26.5 

$12,663 $14,077

$11,599 $13,765 $282 51% 9% 40% 11.9 18.7 

$11,372 $13,782 $262 54% 7% 39% 12.9 19.6 

$10,945 $13,672 $367 57% 3% 40% 12.6 18.4 

$30,566 $33,462

$30,222 $33,263 $6 10% 58% 32% 0.9 25.1 

$29,885 $33,202 -$58 27% 39% 34% 2.2 38.2 

$29,556 $33,134 -$93 39% 33% 28% 22.7 38.0 

$28,079 $32,998 $47 56% 1% 43% 20.1 53.3 

Average LCC Results

Average LCC Results
* discounted and summed over lifetime of equipment

AEO 2010 - Reference Case

Payback Results

Lifetime LCC Net No Net

Oper. Cost* LCC Savings Cost Impact Benefit Median Average

$4,940 $6,351

$4,480 $6,653 -$260 63% 23% 14% 31.8 55.5 

$4,398 $6,630 -$244 64% 19% 17% 27.9 51.9 

$4,282 $6,647 -$263 71% 8% 21% 25.5 46.7 

$4,230 $6,853 -$469 83% 0% 16% 32.2 72.6 

$10,090 $11,116

$9,123 $10,710 $194 41% 8% 35% 11.6 20.9 

$8,943 $10,739 $139 44% 6% 33% 13.4 23.7 

$8,604 $10,659 $159 48% 3% 33% 13.7 23.8 

$25,657 $28,087

$25,369 $27,900 $25 9% 59% 32% 1.0 20.3 

$25,088 $27,814 $9 24% 39% 37% 1.4 26.9 

$24,814 $27,756 -$15 36% 32% 32% 20.0 28.5 

$23,475 $27,557 $179 56% 1% 43% 19.8 47.9 

* discounted and summed over lifetime of equipment

Average LCC Results
Simulation Results NATIONAL - New Construction

Installed Lifetime LCC Net No

Level Description Price Oper. Cost* LCC Savings Cost Impact

NWGF

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,374 $7,249 $9,624

1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $2,355 $6,544 $8,900 $282 8% 53% 

2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,425 $6,419 $8,844 $305 10% 42% 

3 95% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,589 $6,241 $8,830 $311 26% 17% 

4 98% AFUE - Max Tech $2,913 $6,171 $9,084 $58 64% 1% 

MHGF

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,727 $20,595 $23,322

1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $3,621 $18,744 $22,365 $854 37% 10% 

2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,928 $18,379 $22,307 $905 39% 8% 

3 96% AFUE - Max Tech $4,424 $17,695 $22,119 $1,084 43% 4% 

OF

0 82% AFUE - Increased HX Area $4,471 $30,229 $34,700

1 83% AFUE - Increased HX Area $4,690 $29,890 $34,581 $62 13% 57% 

2 84% AFUE - Increased HX Area $4,659 $29,560 $34,219 $303 3% 39% 

3 85% AFUE - Increased HX Area $4,637 $29,236 $33,873 $548 1% 33% 

4 97% AFUE - Max Tech $4,646 $27,699 $32,345 $2,058 12% 1% 

All dollar values are in 2009 $ * discounted and summed over lifetime of equipment

Simulation Results NORTH - New Construction

Installed Lifetime LCC Net No

Level Description Price Oper. Cost* LCC Savings Cost Impact

NWGF 1,521

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,452 $8,667 $11,119

1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $2,447 $7,812 $10,259 $250 2% 70% 

2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,516 $7,660 $10,176 $286 4% 55% 

3 95% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,680 $7,444 $10,124 $325 20% 23% 

4 98% AFUE - Max Tech $2,996 $7,355 $10,351 $100 65% 1% 

MHGF 2,441

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $1,562 $13,430 $14,993

1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $2,058 $12,327 $14,385 $560 34% 10% 

2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,225 $12,087 $14,312 $628 37% 9% 

3 96% AFUE - Max Tech $2,494 $11,636 $14,130 $803 40% 4% 

OF 906

0 82% AFUE - Increased HX Area $4,543 $30,759 $35,302

1 83% AFUE - Increased HX Area $4,767 $30,414 $35,181 $63 14% 56% 

2 84% AFUE - Increased HX Area $4,735 $30,077 $34,812 $310 3% 39% 

3 85% AFUE - Increased HX Area $4,713 $29,748 $34,460 $560 1% 33% 

4 97% AFUE - Max Tech $4,713 $28,210 $32,923 $2,082 13% 1% 

Average LCC Results

Average LCC Results
All dollar values are in 2009 $ * discounted and summed over lifetime of equipment

Simulation Results SOUTH - New Construction

Installed Lifetime LCC Net No

Level Description (EF value at 40 Gallon) Price Oper. Cost* LCC Savings Cost Impact

NWGF 970

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,252 $5,027 $7,279

1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $2,211 $4,557 $6,768 $332 18% 27% 

2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,283 $4,473 $6,757 $334 21% 23% 

3 95% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,447 $4,355 $6,802 $289 35% 8% 

4 98% AFUE - Max Tech $2,782 $4,316 $7,098 -$6 63% 0% 

MHGF 2,561

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,837 $27,425 $31,262

1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $5,112 $24,860 $29,972 $1,135 39% 9% 

2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $5,551 $24,377 $29,928 $1,169 42% 8% 

3 96% AFUE - Max Tech $6,264 $23,469 $29,734 $1,352 46% 4% 

OF 94

0 82% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,773 $25,125 $28,898

1 83% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,946 $24,845 $28,791 $53 9% 65% 

2 84% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,928 $24,571 $28,499 $234 2% 41% 

3 85% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,904 $24,304 $28,208 $434 0% 35% 

4 97% AFUE - Max Tech $4,001 $22,774 $26,775 $1,825 6% 2% 

All dollar values are in 2009 $ * discounted and summed over lifetime of equipment

Average LCC Results
AEO 2010 - Reference Case

Payback Results

Net

Benefit Median Average

38% 0.0 9.0 

47% 3.7 9.5 

57% 8.4 14.3 

35% 18.2 40.4 

53% 9.3 15.9 

52% 10.1 16.7 

53% 10.9 17.2 

30% 12.6 17.4 

58% 1.4 5.0 

66% 0.9 2.4 

87% 0.0 7.1 

AEO 2010 - Reference Case

Payback Results

Net

Benefit Median Average

28% 2.5 4.3 

41% 5.1 5.5 

57% 8.8 9.8 

34% 17.9 33.3 

55% 9.1 15.6 

55% 9.8 15.3 

56% 10.4 14.8 

30% 12.9 17.9 

58% 1.4 5.2 

66% 1.0 2.5 

86% 0.0 7.5 
AEO 2010 - Reference Case

Payback Results

Net

Benefit Median Average

55% 0.0 12.0 

56% 0.3 13.3 

57% 7.1 20.2 

37% 18.9 51.3 

52% 9.5 16.1 

50% 10.6 18.0 

50% 11.6 19.5 

27% 8.3 11.5 

56% 1.5 2.7 

65% 0.9 1.3 

91% 0.0 3.7 
No Learning Curve

APGA Request: No “Learning Curve” Effects on Furnace Prices.

Simulation Results NATIONAL - 10000 samples

Installed Lifetime LCC Net

Level Description Price Oper. Cost* LCC Savings Cost

NWGF

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $1,879 $9,551 $11,429

1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $2,472 $8,621 $11,093 $77 26% 

2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,540 $8,455 $10,996 $122 27% 

3 95% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,702 $8,220 $10,921 $178 39% 

4 98% AFUE - Max Tech $2,995 $8,113 $11,108 -$8 67% 

MHGF

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $1,518 $11,748 $13,266

1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $2,151 $10,712 $12,862 $366 45% 

2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,366 $10,502 $12,868 $360 48% 

3 96% AFUE - Max Tech $2,674 $10,109 $12,783 $442 51% 

OF

0 82% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,238 $30,286 $33,524

1 83% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,388 $29,945 $33,333 $14 10% 

2 84% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,627 $29,612 $33,238 -$15 25% 

3 85% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,856 $29,286 $33,142 -$20 35% 

4 97% AFUE - Max Tech $5,088 $27,807 $32,896 $226 52% 

All dollar values are in 2009 $ * discounted and summed over lifetime of equipment

Simulation Results NORTH

Installed Lifetime LCC Net

Level Description Price Oper. Cost* LCC Savings Cost

NWGF 5,986

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $1,996 $11,553 $13,548

1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $2,591 $10,409 $13,000 $148 10% 

2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,660 $10,205 $12,865 $206 12% 

3 95% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,825 $9,915 $12,740 $302 25% 

4 98% AFUE - Max Tech $3,109 $9,783 $12,892 $151 62% 

MHGF 4,892

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $1,573 $13,060 $14,633

1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $2,222 $11,974 $14,196 $398 45% 

2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,436 $11,740 $14,175 $416 48% 

3 96% AFUE - Max Tech $2,745 $11,300 $14,045 $541 50% 

OF 8,939

0 82% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,295 $30,841 $34,136

1 83% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,449 $30,494 $33,943 $13 10% 

2 84% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,695 $30,155 $33,850 -$19 25% 

3 85% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,929 $29,823 $33,751 -$24 35% 

4 97% AFUE - Max Tech $5,178 $28,329 $33,507 $221 52% 

Average LCC Results

Average LCC Results
All dollar values are in 2009 $ * discounted and summed over lifetime of equipment

Simulation Results SOUTH

Installed Lifetime LCC Net

Level Description Price Oper. Cost* LCC Savings Cost

NWGF 4,014

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $1,704 $6,566 $8,270

1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $2,294 $5,955 $8,249 -$30 49% 

2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,362 $5,846 $8,208 -$3 50% 

3 95% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,518 $5,691 $8,209 -$7 58% 

4 98% AFUE - Max Tech $2,824 $5,623 $8,447 -$245 74% 

MHGF 5,108

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $1,425 $11,452 $12,877

1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $2,025 $10,365 $12,391 $335 45% 

2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,241 $10,162 $12,403 $307 49% 

3 96% AFUE - Max Tech $2,548 $9,779 $12,327 $346 52% 

OF 1,061

0 82% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,764 $25,605 $28,369

1 83% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,873 $25,318 $28,191 $23 8% 

2 84% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,051 $25,037 $28,088 $19 22% 

3 85% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,247 $24,763 $28,010 $12 33% 

4 97% AFUE - Max Tech $4,337 $23,412 $27,748 $265 52% 

All dollar values are in 2009 $ * discounted and summed over lifetime of equipment

Average LCC Results
AEO 2010 - Reference Case Simulation Results NATIONAL - Replacements

Payback Results

No Net Installed

Impact Benefit Median Average Level Description Price

NWGF

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $1,678

52% 22% 16.3 34.6 1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $2,466

42% 31% 12.5 29.4 2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,532

17% 45% 12.8 25.7 3 95% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,686

0% 33% 22.0 47.9 4 98% AFUE - Max Tech $2,958

MHGF

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $1,290

10% 45% 11.0 18.6 1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $1,961

8% 44% 12.1 20.0 2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,193

4% 45% 12.4 20.1 3 96% AFUE - Max Tech $2,492

OF

0 82% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,070

58% 32% 1.1 24.0 1 83% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,212

39% 37% 2.1 34.0 2 84% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,481

33% 32% 19.9 33.6 3 85% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,738

1% 47% 18.7 48.9 4 97% AFUE - Max Tech $5,100

All dollar values are in 2009 $

AEO 2010 - Reference Case Simulation Results NORTH - Replacements

Payback Results

No Net Installed

Impact Benefit Median Average Level Description Price

NWGF 4,465

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $1,803

71% 18% 10.6 13.2 1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $2,595

56% 32% 8.3 10.6 2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,661

23% 52% 10.4 12.3 3 95% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,820

1% 37% 18.7 31.0 4 98% AFUE - Max Tech $3,083

MHGF 2,451

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $1,495

10% 45% 11.0 17.9 1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $2,266

8% 45% 11.9 18.1 2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,516

3% 46% 12.1 17.4 3 96% AFUE - Max Tech $2,845

OF 8,033

0 82% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,122

58% 32% 1.1 24.5 1 83% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,269

39% 37% 2.2 35.0 2 84% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,546

33% 32% 20.1 34.5 3 85% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,808

1% 47% 18.7 49.5 4 97% AFUE - Max Tech $5,192
All dollar values are in 2009 $

AEO 2010 - Reference Case Simulation Results SOUTH - Replacements

Payback Results

No Net Installed

Impact Benefit Median Average Level Description Price

NWGF 3,044

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $1,494

24% 27% 24.9 46.7 1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $2,277

20% 30% 22.3 44.6 2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,342

8% 34% 21.9 42.5 3 95% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,490

0% 25% 31.4 72.5 4 98% AFUE - Max Tech $2,775

MHGF 2,547

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $1,093

10% 45% 10.8 19.3 1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $1,668

8% 44% 12.3 21.7 2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $1,883

4% 44% 13.0 22.6 3 96% AFUE - Max Tech $2,152

OF 967

0 82% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,641

60% 32% 1.2 19.7 1 83% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,743

39% 39% 1.6 24.9 2 84% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,940

33% 34% 17.3 26.3 3 85% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,158

1% 47% 18.8 44.1 4 97% AFUE - Max Tech $4,339

All dollar values are in 2009 $
AEO 2010 - Reference Case

Payback Results

Lifetime LCC Net No Net

Oper. Cost* LCC Savings Cost Impact Benefit Median Average

$9,440 $11,118

$8,521 $10,987 -$21 32% 52% 16% 21.7 42.7 

$8,357 $10,889 $26 33% 42% 26% 16.0 35.6 

$8,124 $10,810 $85 44% 17% 40% 13.9 28.9 

$8,016 $10,974 -$78 70% 0% 30% 22.4 48.8 

$11,552 $12,842

$10,516 $12,477 $243 47% 9% 36% 12.0 20.3 

$10,309 $12,502 $204 50% 7% 35% 13.3 22.2 

$9,919 $12,411 $263 53% 3% 36% 13.3 21.8 

$30,277 $33,348

$29,936 $33,149 $9 10% 58% 32% 1.0 24.7 

$29,603 $33,084 -$49 27% 39% 35% 2.2 37.1 

$29,278 $33,015 -$82 38% 33% 29% 22.6 37.1 

$27,805 $32,906 $30 56% 1% 43% 20.6 53.4 

* discounted and summed over lifetime of equipment

AEO 2010 - Reference Case

Payback Results

Lifetime LCC Net No Net

Oper. Cost* LCC Savings Cost Impact Benefit Median Average

$11,463 $13,267

$10,328 $12,922 $84 13% 72% 15% 13.3 16.3 

$10,125 $12,786 $142 14% 57% 29% 9.5 12.3 

$9,837 $12,657 $242 28% 23% 49% 10.5 12.8 

$9,703 $12,787 $113 63% 1% 36% 18.3 29.0 

$12,796 $14,292

$11,718 $13,984 $283 52% 9% 39% 12.2 19.1 

$11,488 $14,004 $262 55% 7% 38% 13.2 20.0 

$11,057 $13,902 $363 57% 3% 39% 13.0 18.9 

$30,848 $33,970

$30,500 $33,769 $8 10% 58% 32% 1.0 25.2 

$30,160 $33,706 -$55 27% 39% 34% 2.5 38.4 

$29,829 $33,636 -$88 39% 33% 28% 22.8 38.1 

$28,338 $33,530 $21 56% 1% 43% 20.6 54.1 

Average LCC Results

Average LCC Results
* discounted and summed over lifetime of equipment

AEO 2010 - Reference Case

Payback Results

Lifetime LCC Net No Net

Oper. Cost* LCC Savings Cost Impact Benefit Median Average

$6,473 $7,967

$5,871 $8,148 -$176 59% 23% 17% 32.7 56.9 

$5,764 $8,106 -$146 60% 19% 21% 28.8 53.7 

$5,612 $8,101 -$144 67% 8% 25% 26.7 48.8 

$5,541 $8,315 -$358 79% 0% 21% 34.5 77.2 

$10,355 $11,448

$9,359 $11,028 $204 42% 8% 33% 11.9 21.4 

$9,174 $11,057 $148 46% 6% 32% 13.8 24.3 

$8,825 $10,977 $168 48% 3% 32% 14.0 24.5 

$25,540 $28,181

$25,253 $27,997 $21 9% 59% 32% 1.1 20.4 

$24,973 $27,913 -$1 24% 39% 37% 1.6 27.0 

$24,700 $27,857 -$29 37% 32% 31% 20.1 28.6 

$23,378 $27,716 $106 57% 1% 42% 20.3 48.3 

* discounted and summed over lifetime of equipment

Average LCC Results
Simulation Results NATIONAL - New Construction

Installed Lifetime LCC Net No

Level Description Price Oper. Cost* LCC Savings Cost Impact

NWGF

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,483 $9,884 $12,367

1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $2,489 $8,921 $11,410 $371 8% 53% 

2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,567 $8,750 $11,317 $413 10% 42% 

3 95% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,748 $8,507 $11,256 $456 24% 17% 

4 98% AFUE - Max Tech $3,104 $8,406 $11,511 $202 58% 1% 

MHGF

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,892 $20,743 $23,634

1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $3,843 $18,878 $22,721 $826 38% 10% 

2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $4,167 $18,510 $22,677 $866 41% 8% 

3 96% AFUE - Max Tech $4,701 $17,821 $22,522 $1,016 45% 4% 

OF

0 82% AFUE - Increased HX Area $4,751 $30,361 $35,111

1 83% AFUE - Increased HX Area $4,972 $30,020 $34,992 $59 12% 57% 

2 84% AFUE - Increased HX Area $4,942 $29,688 $34,630 $295 4% 39% 

3 85% AFUE - Increased HX Area $4,922 $29,363 $34,284 $537 1% 33% 

4 97% AFUE - Max Tech $4,980 $27,827 $32,807 $1,990 13% 1% 

All dollar values are in 2009 $ * discounted and summed over lifetime of equipment

Simulation Results NORTH - New Construction

Installed Lifetime LCC Net No

Level Description Price Oper. Cost* LCC Savings Cost Impact

NWGF 1,521

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,560 $11,815 $14,375

1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $2,579 $10,647 $13,226 $335 2% 70% 

2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,656 $10,439 $13,095 $393 5% 55% 

3 95% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,837 $10,144 $12,982 $478 19% 23% 

4 98% AFUE - Max Tech $3,185 $10,016 $13,200 $260 58% 1% 

MHGF 2,441

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $1,652 $13,324 $14,976

1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $2,178 $12,231 $14,408 $512 38% 10% 

2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,355 $11,992 $14,347 $569 40% 9% 

3 96% AFUE - Max Tech $2,644 $11,545 $14,189 $720 43% 4% 

OF 906

0 82% AFUE - Increased HX Area $4,825 $30,785 $35,609

1 83% AFUE - Increased HX Area $5,051 $30,439 $35,490 $60 13% 56% 

2 84% AFUE - Increased HX Area $5,020 $30,102 $35,122 $302 4% 39% 

3 85% AFUE - Increased HX Area $4,999 $29,772 $34,772 $547 1% 33% 

4 97% AFUE - Max Tech $5,049 $28,249 $33,298 $2,001 14% 1% 

Average LCC Results

Average LCC Results
All dollar values are in 2009 $ * discounted and summed over lifetime of equipment

Simulation Results SOUTH - New Construction

Installed Lifetime LCC Net No

Level Description (EF value at 40 Gallon) Price Oper. Cost* LCC Savings Cost Impact

NWGF 970

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,363 $6,856 $9,219

1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $2,347 $6,216 $8,563 $427 15% 27% 

2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,427 $6,102 $8,529 $445 19% 23% 

3 95% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,608 $5,941 $8,549 $422 31% 8% 

4 98% AFUE - Max Tech $2,978 $5,883 $8,861 $110 60% 0% 

MHGF 2,561

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $4,074 $27,813 $31,887

1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $5,430 $25,213 $30,643 $1,124 39% 9% 

2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $5,894 $24,723 $30,617 $1,148 42% 8% 

3 96% AFUE - Max Tech $6,661 $23,803 $30,464 $1,297 47% 4% 

OF 94

0 82% AFUE - Increased HX Area $4,036 $26,273 $30,308

1 83% AFUE - Increased HX Area $4,210 $25,979 $30,189 $48 6% 65% 

2 84% AFUE - Increased HX Area $4,193 $25,693 $29,886 $233 0% 41% 

3 85% AFUE - Increased HX Area $4,172 $25,412 $29,584 $434 0% 35% 

4 97% AFUE - Max Tech $4,315 $23,760 $28,075 $1,891 5% 2% 

All dollar values are in 2009 $ * discounted and summed over lifetime of equipment

Average LCC Results
AEO 2010 - Reference Case

Payback Results

Net

Benefit Median Average

39% 0.0 9.8 

47% 4.2 10.5 

59% 9.3 15.9 

41% 20.3 45.0 

52% 9.9 16.9 

50% 10.8 17.7 

51% 11.6 18.3 

31% 12.7 17.6 

58% 1.6 5.1 

66% 1.0 2.5 

86% 0.0 7.5 

AEO 2010 - Reference Case

Payback Results

Net

Benefit Median Average

27% 2.8 4.6 

40% 5.5 6.0 

58% 9.6 10.8 

42% 19.7 37.0 

52% 9.7 16.6 

51% 10.4 16.2 

53% 11.0 15.8 

31% 13.0 18.0 

58% 1.6 5.4 

66% 1.1 2.6 

85% 0.0 7.9 
AEO 2010 - Reference Case

Payback Results

Net

Benefit Median Average

58% 0.0 13.1 

59% 0.9 14.6 

61% 8.8 22.5 

40% 21.9 57.3 

51% 10.1 17.1 

50% 11.3 19.1 

49% 12.3 20.7 

29% 8.3 11.7 

59% 1.7 2.9 

65% 1.0 1.4 

93% 0.0 3.9 
AGA Installation Costs

APGA Request: Use AGA Survey Installation Costs

Simulation Results NATIONAL - 10000 samples

Installed Lifetime LCC Net

Level Description Price Oper. Cost* LCC Savings Cost

NWGF

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $1,823 $9,551 $11,375

1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $2,343 $8,622 $10,964 $110 24% 

2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,405 $8,456 $10,861 $159 25% 

3 95% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,550 $8,221 $10,771 $228 35% 

4 98% AFUE - Max Tech $2,816 $8,115 $10,930 $69 63% 

MHGF

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $1,432 $11,749 $13,181

1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $2,040 $10,712 $12,752 $389 44% 

2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,251 $10,503 $12,754 $387 47% 

3 96% AFUE - Max Tech $2,540 $10,110 $12,650 $486 50% 

OF

0 82% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,008 $30,287 $33,295

1 83% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,165 $29,946 $33,111 $6 11% 

2 84% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,397 $29,613 $33,010 -$16 25% 

3 85% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,619 $29,287 $32,906 -$15 34% 

4 97% AFUE - Max Tech $4,813 $27,809 $32,623 $268 51% 

All dollar values are in 2009 $ * discounted and summed over lifetime of equipment

Simulation Results NORTH

Installed Lifetime LCC Net

Level Description Price Oper. Cost* LCC Savings Cost

NWGF 5,986

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $1,927 $11,553 $13,480

1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $2,448 $10,410 $12,858 $168 9% 

2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,510 $10,206 $12,716 $229 10% 

3 95% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,659 $9,917 $12,575 $337 22% 

4 98% AFUE - Max Tech $2,917 $9,785 $12,702 $211 58% 

MHGF 4,892

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $1,488 $13,060 $14,548

1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $2,112 $11,974 $14,086 $420 44% 

2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,325 $11,740 $14,065 $438 47% 

3 96% AFUE - Max Tech $2,612 $11,301 $13,913 $585 49% 

OF 8,939

0 82% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,063 $30,842 $33,905

1 83% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,223 $30,495 $33,718 $7 11% 

2 84% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,464 $30,156 $33,619 -$21 25% 

3 85% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,689 $29,824 $33,513 -$18 35% 

4 97% AFUE - Max Tech $4,901 $28,331 $33,232 $263 51% 

Average LCC Results

Average LCC Results
All dollar values are in 2009 $ * discounted and summed over lifetime of equipment

Simulation Results SOUTH

Installed Lifetime LCC Net

Level Description Price Oper. Cost* LCC Savings Cost

NWGF 4,014

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $1,668 $6,566 $8,234

1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $2,186 $5,955 $8,141 $24 45% 

2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,247 $5,846 $8,094 $56 46% 

3 95% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,388 $5,692 $8,080 $65 54% 

4 98% AFUE - Max Tech $2,665 $5,624 $8,289 -$144 71% 

MHGF 5,108

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $1,340 $11,453 $12,793

1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $1,915 $10,366 $12,281 $359 43% 

2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,124 $10,162 $12,286 $337 47% 

3 96% AFUE - Max Tech $2,413 $9,780 $12,193 $392 51% 

OF 1,061

0 82% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,549 $25,606 $28,154

1 83% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,675 $25,319 $27,993 $5 10% 

2 84% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,835 $25,038 $27,873 $18 21% 

3 85% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,028 $24,764 $27,792 $14 33% 

4 97% AFUE - Max Tech $4,076 $23,413 $27,489 $306 51% 

All dollar values are in 2009 $ * discounted and summed over lifetime of equipment

Average LCC Results
AEO 2010 - Reference Case Simulation Results NATIONAL - Replacements

Payback Results

No Net Installed

Impact Benefit Median Average Level Description Price

NWGF

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $1,642

52% 24% 14.3 31.6 1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $2,337

42% 34% 10.8 26.3 2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,397

17% 48% 11.3 23.0 3 95% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,536

0% 37% 19.5 43.7 4 98% AFUE - Max Tech $2,783

MHGF

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $1,216

10% 47% 10.5 17.8 1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $1,869

8% 45% 11.7 19.3 2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,102

4% 46% 11.9 19.2 3 96% AFUE - Max Tech $2,385

OF

0 82% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,846

58% 31% 1.0 23.9 1 83% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,996

39% 37% 2.0 32.8 2 84% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,256

33% 32% 19.9 33.3 3 85% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,507

1% 48% 18.4 46.4 4 97% AFUE - Max Tech $4,833

All dollar values are in 2009 $

AEO 2010 - Reference Case Simulation Results NORTH - Replacements

Payback Results

No Net Installed

Impact Benefit Median Average Level Description Price

NWGF 4,465

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $1,750

71% 19% 9.7 12.0 1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $2,448

56% 33% 7.5 9.6 2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,508

23% 55% 9.3 11.1 3 95% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,652

1% 41% 16.9 28.1 4 98% AFUE - Max Tech $2,890

MHGF 2,451

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $1,413

10% 46% 10.7 17.2 1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $2,166

8% 46% 11.5 17.5 2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,424

3% 48% 11.5 16.7 3 96% AFUE - Max Tech $2,729

OF 8,033

0 82% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,896

58% 31% 1.0 24.0 1 83% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,049

39% 36% 2.3 33.9 2 84% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,320

33% 32% 20.0 34.2 3 85% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,575

1% 48% 18.4 46.9 4 97% AFUE - Max Tech $4,923
All dollar values are in 2009 $

AEO 2010 - Reference Case Simulation Results SOUTH - Replacements

Payback Results

No Net Installed

Impact Benefit Median Average Level Description Price

NWGF 3,044

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $1,484

24% 31% 21.9 42.6 1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $2,175

20% 34% 19.6 39.8 2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,233

8% 38% 19.8 37.9 3 95% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,367

0% 29% 28.0 66.5 4 98% AFUE - Max Tech $2,625

MHGF 2,547

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $1,026

10% 47% 10.2 18.4 1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $1,584

8% 45% 11.9 20.9 2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $1,792

4% 45% 12.4 21.7 3 96% AFUE - Max Tech $2,053

OF 967

0 82% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,430

60% 30% 1.1 22.9 1 83% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,551

39% 40% 1.5 23.7 2 84% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,728

33% 34% 17.1 26.5 3 85% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,942

1% 48% 18.3 42.5 4 97% AFUE - Max Tech $4,083

All dollar values are in 2009 $
AEO 2010 - Reference Case

Payback Results

Lifetime LCC Net No Net

Oper. Cost* LCC Savings Cost Impact Benefit Median Average

$9,441 $11,083

$8,522 $10,859 $23 29% 52% 19% 18.8 38.4 

$8,358 $10,755 $73 29% 42% 29% 13.8 31.4 

$8,125 $10,661 $145 39% 17% 44% 12.2 25.6 

$8,017 $10,800 $7 65% 0% 34% 20.0 44.0 

$11,552 $12,768

$10,516 $12,386 $259 46% 9% 37% 11.7 19.8 

$10,309 $12,411 $222 50% 7% 35% 13.0 21.7 

$9,920 $12,305 $294 52% 3% 36% 13.0 21.2 

$30,279 $33,124

$29,937 $32,933 $0 10% 58% 31% 0.9 24.5 

$29,604 $32,861 -$51 27% 39% 34% 2.3 35.8 

$29,279 $32,785 -$77 38% 33% 29% 22.5 36.8 

$27,806 $32,639 $71 56% 1% 43% 20.0 50.5 

* discounted and summed over lifetime of equipment

AEO 2010 - Reference Case

Payback Results

Lifetime LCC Net No Net

Oper. Cost* LCC Savings Cost Impact Benefit Median Average

$11,464 $13,213

$10,329 $12,777 $111 12% 72% 17% 11.7 14.6 

$10,126 $12,634 $171 12% 57% 31% 8.6 11.0 

$9,838 $12,490 $282 24% 23% 53% 9.4 11.5 

$9,705 $12,595 $178 59% 1% 41% 16.6 26.2 

$12,797 $14,210

$11,718 $13,884 $300 52% 9% 39% 11.9 18.7 

$11,489 $13,912 $274 55% 7% 38% 13.0 19.6 

$11,057 $13,787 $394 57% 3% 40% 12.7 18.4 

$30,849 $33,745

$30,501 $33,551 $0 10% 58% 31% 0.9 24.6 

$30,162 $33,481 -$56 28% 39% 34% 2.7 37.0 

$29,830 $33,404 -$83 38% 33% 28% 22.7 37.8 

$28,340 $33,263 $61 56% 1% 43% 20.1 51.0 

Average LCC Results

Average LCC Results
* discounted and summed over lifetime of equipment

AEO 2010 - Reference Case

Payback Results

Lifetime LCC Net No Net

Oper. Cost* LCC Savings Cost Impact Benefit Median Average

$6,474 $7,957

$5,872 $8,047 -$105 54% 23% 22% 29.1 51.3 

$5,765 $7,998 -$70 55% 19% 26% 25.5 47.4 

$5,612 $7,979 -$56 61% 8% 31% 23.6 42.9 

$5,541 $8,166 -$243 75% 0% 25% 30.6 69.5 

$10,355 $11,381

$9,360 $10,944 $220 41% 8% 34% 11.6 20.8 

$9,174 $10,967 $171 45% 6% 33% 13.1 23.7 

$8,826 $10,878 $197 48% 3% 33% 13.6 23.8 

$25,541 $27,971

$25,254 $27,806 $1 11% 59% 30% 1.1 23.8 

$24,974 $27,703 -$3 23% 39% 38% 1.6 25.6 

$24,701 $27,643 -$27 36% 32% 32% 20.0 28.8 

$23,377 $27,460 $150 56% 1% 43% 19.6 46.4 

* discounted and summed over lifetime of equipment

Average LCC Results
Simulation Results NATIONAL - New Construction

Installed Lifetime LCC Net No

Level Description Price Oper. Cost* LCC Savings Cost Impact

NWGF

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,370 $9,885 $12,254

1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $2,359 $8,923 $11,281 $373 8% 53% 

2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,429 $8,752 $11,180 $419 10% 42% 

3 95% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,593 $8,509 $11,101 $477 22% 17% 

4 98% AFUE - Max Tech $2,916 $8,409 $11,325 $254 56% 1% 

MHGF

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,727 $20,743 $23,470

1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $3,621 $18,879 $22,500 $877 37% 10% 

2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,932 $18,512 $22,444 $928 40% 8% 

3 96% AFUE - Max Tech $4,424 $17,822 $22,247 $1,117 43% 4% 

OF

0 82% AFUE - Increased HX Area $4,468 $30,362 $34,830

1 83% AFUE - Increased HX Area $4,684 $30,021 $34,705 $63 12% 57% 

2 84% AFUE - Increased HX Area $4,663 $29,689 $34,352 $291 4% 39% 

3 85% AFUE - Increased HX Area $4,631 $29,364 $33,995 $543 1% 33% 

4 97% AFUE - Max Tech $4,638 $27,835 $32,473 $2,041 12% 1% 

All dollar values are in 2009 $ * discounted and summed over lifetime of equipment

Simulation Results NORTH - New Construction

Installed Lifetime LCC Net No

Level Description Price Oper. Cost* LCC Savings Cost Impact

NWGF 1,521

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,449 $11,815 $14,264

1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $2,447 $10,649 $13,096 $337 3% 70% 

2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,516 $10,441 $12,957 $398 5% 55% 

3 95% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,680 $10,146 $12,826 $496 16% 23% 

4 98% AFUE - Max Tech $2,996 $10,019 $13,015 $309 55% 1% 

MHGF 2,441

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $1,562 $13,325 $14,887

1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $2,058 $12,231 $14,289 $540 36% 10% 

2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,226 $11,993 $14,219 $603 38% 9% 

3 96% AFUE - Max Tech $2,494 $11,546 $14,040 $776 41% 4% 

OF 906

0 82% AFUE - Increased HX Area $4,541 $30,786 $35,326

1 83% AFUE - Increased HX Area $4,761 $30,441 $35,201 $64 13% 56% 

2 84% AFUE - Increased HX Area $4,739 $30,103 $34,842 $297 4% 39% 

3 85% AFUE - Increased HX Area $4,706 $29,774 $34,480 $554 1% 33% 

4 97% AFUE - Max Tech $4,704 $28,255 $32,959 $2,054 12% 1% 

Average LCC Results

Average LCC Results
All dollar values are in 2009 $ * discounted and summed over lifetime of equipment

Simulation Results SOUTH - New Construction

Installed Lifetime LCC Net No

Level Description (EF value at 40 Gallon) Price Oper. Cost* LCC Savings Cost Impact

NWGF 970

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,246 $6,857 $9,103

1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $2,220 $6,216 $8,436 $428 17% 27% 

2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,292 $6,102 $8,394 $452 19% 23% 

3 95% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,456 $5,941 $8,397 $446 30% 8% 

4 98% AFUE - Max Tech $2,791 $5,884 $8,675 $167 57% 0% 

MHGF 2,561

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,837 $27,815 $31,652

1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $5,112 $25,215 $30,327 $1,198 38% 9% 

2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $5,558 $24,725 $30,282 $1,238 41% 8% 

3 96% AFUE - Max Tech $6,264 $23,805 $30,069 $1,443 45% 4% 

OF 94

0 82% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,773 $26,274 $30,047

1 83% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,945 $25,980 $29,925 $49 7% 65% 

2 84% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,928 $25,694 $29,622 $234 3% 41% 

3 85% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,910 $25,414 $29,323 $431 0% 35% 

4 97% AFUE - Max Tech $4,005 $23,782 $27,787 $1,916 6% 2% 

All dollar values are in 2009 $ * discounted and summed over lifetime of equipment

Average LCC Results
AEO 2010 - Reference Case

Payback Results

Net

Benefit Median Average

39% 0.5 10.4 

47% 4.5 10.4 

61% 8.7 15.1 

43% 18.4 42.8 

53% 9.3 15.9 

52% 10.2 16.8 

53% 10.9 17.3 

31% 12.2 18.3 

57% 1.4 5.5 

66% 0.9 2.2 

87% 0.0 9.1 

AEO 2010 - Reference Case

Payback Results

Net

Benefit Median Average

27% 3.2 4.7 

40% 5.2 5.7 

60% 8.7 9.9 

44% 17.9 33.8 

54% 9.1 15.6 

53% 10.0 15.3 

55% 10.4 14.9 

31% 12.6 18.8 

58% 1.4 5.7 

66% 0.9 2.3 

87% 0.0 9.6 
AEO 2010 - Reference Case

Payback Results

Net

Benefit Median Average

56% 0.0 14.0 

58% 1.3 14.6 

62% 8.7 21.9 

43% 19.6 56.9 

53% 9.5 16.1 

51% 10.7 18.2 

51% 11.6 19.5 

28% 7.0 12.1 

55% 1.4 3.0 

65% 1.0 1.3 

91% 0.0 4.0 
AEO 2011 Reference Case

APGA Request: Use AEO 2011 Reference Case Natural Gas Prices.

Simulation Results NATIONAL - 10000 samples

Installed Lifetime LCC Net

Level Description Price Oper. Cost* LCC Savings Cost

NWGF

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $1,786 $8,793 $10,579

1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $2,357 $7,941 $10,298 $60 26% 

2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,419 $7,789 $10,208 $102 28% 

3 95% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,564 $7,574 $10,138 $155 39% 

4 98% AFUE - Max Tech $2,830 $7,474 $10,304 -$10 68% 

MHGF

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $1,432 $11,487 $12,919

1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $2,040 $10,463 $12,504 $376 45% 

2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,248 $10,259 $12,507 $373 49% 

3 96% AFUE - Max Tech $2,540 $9,875 $12,415 $461 52% 

OF

0 82% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,008 $29,583 $32,592

1 83% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,157 $29,251 $32,407 $11 10% 

2 84% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,394 $28,925 $32,319 -$21 25% 

3 85% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,622 $28,607 $32,229 -$31 35% 

4 97% AFUE - Max Tech $4,810 $27,199 $32,009 $190 52% 

All dollar values are in 2009 $ * discounted and summed over lifetime of equipment

Simulation Results NORTH

Installed Lifetime LCC Net

Level Description Price Oper. Cost* LCC Savings Cost

NWGF 5,986

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $1,901 $10,575 $12,476

1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $2,474 $9,533 $12,007 $127 11% 

2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,536 $9,347 $11,883 $180 13% 

3 95% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,685 $9,083 $11,768 $268 26% 

4 98% AFUE - Max Tech $2,943 $8,961 $11,904 $134 63% 

MHGF 4,892

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $1,488 $12,769 $14,257

1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $2,112 $11,690 $13,802 $413 46% 

2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,318 $11,461 $13,779 $433 49% 

3 96% AFUE - Max Tech $2,611 $11,032 $13,643 $565 51% 

OF 8,939

0 82% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,063 $30,145 $33,208

1 83% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,216 $29,805 $33,022 $10 10% 

2 84% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,460 $29,474 $32,934 -$25 25% 

3 85% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,692 $29,150 $32,842 -$35 35% 

4 97% AFUE - Max Tech $4,897 $27,724 $32,621 $187 52% 

Average LCC Results

Average LCC Results
All dollar values are in 2009 $ * discounted and summed over lifetime of equipment

Simulation Results SOUTH

Installed Lifetime LCC Net

Level Description Price Oper. Cost* LCC Savings Cost

NWGF 4,014

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $1,614 $6,136 $7,750

1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $2,182 $5,568 $7,750 -$41 49% 

2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,244 $5,467 $7,710 -$14 50% 

3 95% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,384 $5,323 $7,708 -$15 59% 

4 98% AFUE - Max Tech $2,661 $5,256 $7,918 -$224 75% 

MHGF 5,108

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $1,340 $11,175 $12,515

1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $1,916 $10,111 $12,027 $340 45% 

2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,124 $9,913 $12,037 $315 48% 

3 96% AFUE - Max Tech $2,415 $9,540 $11,954 $363 52% 

OF 1,061

0 82% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,549 $24,854 $27,402

1 83% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,656 $24,575 $27,232 $20 8% 

2 84% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,832 $24,303 $27,136 $13 22% 

3 85% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,027 $24,038 $27,065 $0 34% 

4 97% AFUE - Max Tech $4,074 $22,772 $26,846 $211 52% 

All dollar values are in 2009 $ * discounted and summed over lifetime of equipment

Average LCC Results
AEO 2010 - Reference Case Simulation Results NATIONAL - Replacements

Payback Results

No Net Installed

Impact Benefit Median Average Level Description Price

NWGF

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $1,590

52% 21% 18.2 36.7 1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $2,357

42% 31% 13.7 30.5 2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,417

17% 44% 13.7 27.0 3 95% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,556

0% 32% 23.9 49.2 4 98% AFUE - Max Tech $2,802

MHGF

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $1,216

10% 45% 12.0 21.2 1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $1,870

8% 44% 13.0 22.2 2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,097

4% 44% 13.4 21.1 3 96% AFUE - Max Tech $2,385

OF

0 82% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,846

58% 32% 1.0 24.1 1 83% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,986

39% 37% 1.9 34.3 2 84% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,253

33% 32% 20.0 34.0 3 85% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,509

1% 47% 18.5 46.2 4 97% AFUE - Max Tech $4,828

All dollar values are in 2009 $

AEO 2010 - Reference Case Simulation Results NORTH - Replacements

Payback Results

No Net Installed

Impact Benefit Median Average Level Description Price

NWGF 4,465

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $1,713

71% 17% 11.8 14.9 1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $2,483

56% 31% 8.9 11.8 2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,543

23% 51% 11.1 13.2 3 95% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,687

1% 37% 20.1 33.3 4 98% AFUE - Max Tech $2,925

MHGF 2,451

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $1,413

10% 45% 12.3 22.4 1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $2,166

8% 44% 12.9 21.9 2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,410

3% 45% 13.1 18.8 3 96% AFUE - Max Tech $2,727

OF 8,033

0 82% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,896

58% 32% 1.0 24.6 1 83% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,041

39% 36% 2.0 35.3 2 84% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,317

33% 32% 20.3 34.9 3 85% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,577

1% 47% 18.5 47.1 4 97% AFUE - Max Tech $4,918
All dollar values are in 2009 $

AEO 2010 - Reference Case Simulation Results SOUTH - Replacements

Payback Results

No Net Installed

Impact Benefit Median Average Level Description Price

NWGF 3,044

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $1,411

24% 27% 27.1 49.0 1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $2,173

20% 30% 24.2 45.8 2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,231

8% 33% 23.5 44.4 3 95% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,365

0% 25% 34.1 71.2 4 98% AFUE - Max Tech $2,623

MHGF 2,547

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $1,026

10% 46% 11.5 20.0 1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $1,586

8% 44% 13.0 22.5 2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $1,796

4% 44% 13.8 23.3 3 96% AFUE - Max Tech $2,056

OF 967

0 82% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,430

60% 32% 1.1 20.0 1 83% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,531

39% 39% 1.5 25.4 2 84% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,726

33% 34% 17.6 26.6 3 85% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,942

1% 46% 18.7 38.8 4 97% AFUE - Max Tech $4,082

All dollar values are in 2009 $
AEO 2010 - Reference Case

Payback Results

Lifetime LCC Net No Net

Oper. Cost* LCC Savings Cost Impact Benefit Median Average

$8,686 $10,276

$7,844 $10,201 -$39 33% 52% 15% 24.3 45.4 

$7,694 $10,111 $5 34% 42% 25% 17.6 37.1 

$7,481 $10,037 $61 45% 17% 39% 15.1 30.7 

$7,379 $10,182 -$83 71% 0% 29% 25.0 50.8 

$11,265 $12,481

$10,246 $12,117 $246 48% 9% 36% 13.5 23.6 

$10,044 $12,142 $208 51% 7% 34% 14.6 25.2 

$9,665 $12,050 $269 54% 3% 35% 14.6 23.3 

$29,577 $32,423

$29,244 $32,230 $6 10% 58% 32% 0.9 24.9 

$28,918 $32,172 -$56 27% 39% 34% 2.0 37.5 

$28,600 $32,109 -$93 39% 33% 28% 22.8 37.5 

$27,198 $32,026 -$7 56% 1% 43% 20.4 50.3 

* discounted and summed over lifetime of equipment

AEO 2010 - Reference Case

Payback Results

Lifetime LCC Net No Net

Oper. Cost* LCC Savings Cost Impact Benefit Median Average

$10,480 $12,193

$9,446 $11,929 $63 14% 72% 14% 15.1 18.5 

$9,262 $11,805 $116 15% 57% 28% 10.3 13.7 

$9,000 $11,687 $207 29% 23% 48% 11.4 13.8 

$8,877 $11,802 $93 64% 1% 35% 19.9 31.7 

$12,472 $13,885

$11,406 $13,572 $288 53% 9% 38% 13.7 24.7 

$11,182 $13,593 $267 56% 7% 37% 14.7 24.9 

$10,762 $13,489 $368 59% 3% 38% 14.4 20.8 

$30,153 $33,049

$29,813 $32,854 $5 10% 58% 32% 0.9 25.4 

$29,481 $32,798 -$61 27% 39% 34% 2.3 38.7 

$29,157 $32,734 -$99 39% 33% 28% 22.9 38.5 

$27,734 $32,653 -$14 56% 1% 43% 20.4 51.3 

Average LCC Results

Average LCC Results
* discounted and summed over lifetime of equipment

AEO 2010 - Reference Case

Payback Results

Lifetime LCC Net No Net

Oper. Cost* LCC Savings Cost Impact Benefit Median Average

$6,054 $7,465

$5,494 $7,667 -$188 60% 23% 16% 35.9 60.0 

$5,394 $7,626 -$158 61% 19% 20% 31.5 55.5 

$5,253 $7,618 -$153 68% 8% 24% 28.8 51.5 

$5,183 $7,806 -$341 80% 0% 20% 38.2 76.7 

$10,104 $11,130

$9,130 $10,716 $205 42% 8% 33% 13.2 22.6 

$8,949 $10,745 $150 46% 6% 31% 14.3 25.5 

$8,609 $10,665 $173 49% 3% 32% 15.1 25.6 

$24,793 $27,223

$24,515 $27,046 $18 9% 59% 32% 1.1 20.7 

$24,244 $26,970 -$8 24% 39% 37% 1.5 27.5 

$23,979 $26,921 -$41 37% 32% 31% 20.4 29.0 

$22,741 $26,823 $52 57% 1% 42% 20.4 42.4 

* discounted and summed over lifetime of equipment

Average LCC Results
Simulation Results NATIONAL - New Construction

Installed Lifetime LCC Net No

Level Description Price Oper. Cost* LCC Savings Cost Impact

NWGF

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,374 $9,117 $11,492

1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $2,355 $8,234 $10,589 $356 7% 53% 

2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,425 $8,077 $10,502 $396 10% 42% 

3 95% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,589 $7,854 $10,444 $437 23% 17% 

4 98% AFUE - Max Tech $2,913 $7,758 $10,671 $211 58% 1% 

MHGF

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,727 $20,273 $23,000

1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $3,621 $18,436 $22,057 $852 39% 10% 

2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,928 $18,077 $22,005 $900 41% 8% 

3 96% AFUE - Max Tech $4,424 $17,404 $21,828 $1,071 45% 4% 

OF

0 82% AFUE - Increased HX Area $4,471 $29,644 $34,115

1 83% AFUE - Increased HX Area $4,690 $29,312 $34,002 $56 12% 57% 

2 84% AFUE - Increased HX Area $4,659 $28,988 $33,647 $289 3% 39% 

3 85% AFUE - Increased HX Area $4,637 $28,670 $33,307 $527 1% 33% 

4 97% AFUE - Max Tech $4,646 $27,205 $31,851 $1,960 13% 1% 

All dollar values are in 2009 $ * discounted and summed over lifetime of equipment

Simulation Results NORTH - New Construction

Installed Lifetime LCC Net No

Level Description Price Oper. Cost* LCC Savings Cost Impact

NWGF 1,521

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,452 $10,855 $13,308

1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $2,447 $9,787 $12,234 $316 3% 70% 

2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,516 $9,597 $12,113 $370 5% 55% 

3 95% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,680 $9,328 $12,008 $448 19% 23% 

4 98% AFUE - Max Tech $2,996 $9,207 $12,203 $254 58% 1% 

MHGF 2,441

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $1,562 $13,067 $14,629

1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $2,058 $11,975 $14,033 $539 38% 10% 

2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,225 $11,742 $13,967 $600 41% 9% 

3 96% AFUE - Max Tech $2,494 $11,303 $13,797 $762 44% 4% 

OF 906

0 82% AFUE - Increased HX Area $4,543 $30,077 $34,620

1 83% AFUE - Increased HX Area $4,767 $29,739 $34,507 $57 13% 56% 

2 84% AFUE - Increased HX Area $4,735 $29,410 $34,145 $296 4% 39% 

3 85% AFUE - Increased HX Area $4,713 $29,088 $33,801 $537 1% 33% 

4 97% AFUE - Max Tech $4,713 $27,633 $32,346 $1,973 14% 1% 

Average LCC Results

Average LCC Results
All dollar values are in 2009 $ * discounted and summed over lifetime of equipment

Simulation Results SOUTH - New Construction

Installed Lifetime LCC Net No

Level Description (EF value at 40 Gallon) Price Oper. Cost* LCC Savings Cost Impact

NWGF 970

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,252 $6,392 $8,644

1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $2,211 $5,799 $8,010 $418 14% 27% 

2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,283 $5,693 $7,976 $437 17% 23% 

3 95% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,447 $5,544 $7,991 $420 29% 8% 

4 98% AFUE - Max Tech $2,782 $5,486 $8,268 $143 58% 0% 

MHGF 2,561

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,837 $27,140 $30,978

1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $5,112 $24,594 $29,706 $1,151 39% 9% 

2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $5,551 $24,116 $29,667 $1,186 42% 8% 

3 96% AFUE - Max Tech $6,264 $23,218 $29,483 $1,365 47% 4% 

OF 94

0 82% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,773 $25,478 $29,251

1 83% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,946 $25,194 $29,140 $46 6% 65% 

2 84% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,928 $24,916 $28,844 $227 0% 41% 

3 85% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,904 $24,645 $28,549 $425 0% 35% 

4 97% AFUE - Max Tech $4,001 $23,083 $27,084 $1,840 5% 2% 

All dollar values are in 2009 $ * discounted and summed over lifetime of equipment

Average LCC Results
AEO 2010 - Reference Case

Payback Results

Net

Benefit Median Average

39% 0.0 9.6 

48% 4.3 10.4 

59% 9.8 15.9 

41% 21.4 44.3 

51% 10.7 18.6 

50% 11.6 19.2 

51% 12.3 19.0 

31% 12.6 17.6 

58% 1.5 5.1 

66% 1.0 2.4 

86% 0.0 8.1 

AEO 2010 - Reference Case

Payback Results

Net

Benefit Median Average

27% 2.8 5.0 

40% 5.9 6.4 

57% 10.1 11.4 

41% 21.3 37.8 

51% 10.8 19.9 

51% 11.4 18.9 

52% 11.8 16.8 

31% 13.0 18.1 

58% 1.4 5.3 

66% 1.0 2.5 

85% 0.0 8.6 
AEO 2010 - Reference Case

Payback Results

Net

Benefit Median Average

59% 0.0 12.6 

60% 0.3 14.0 

62% 8.2 21.9 

41% 22.1 53.9 

52% 10.6 17.5 

50% 11.9 19.5 

50% 12.8 20.9 

29% 8.7 11.8 

59% 1.5 2.8 

65% 0.9 1.3 

93% 0.0 4.1 
AEO 2011 High Shale EUR Scenario Prices

APGA Request: AEO 2011 High Shale Case for Natural Gas Prices

Simulation Results NATIONAL - 10000 samples

Installed Lifetime LCC Net

Level Description Price Oper. Cost* LCC Savings Cost

NWGF

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $1,786 $8,060 $9,846

1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $2,357 $7,287 $9,643 $30 28% 

2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,419 $7,149 $9,567 $65 30% 

3 95% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,564 $6,953 $9,517 $102 43% 

4 98% AFUE - Max Tech $2,830 $6,871 $9,701 -$81 72% 

MHGF

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $1,432 $11,022 $12,454

1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $2,040 $10,043 $12,083 $336 48% 

2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,248 $9,847 $12,095 $325 51% 

3 96% AFUE - Max Tech $2,540 $9,479 $12,019 $398 55% 

OF

0 82% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,008 $29,465 $32,474

1 83% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,157 $29,134 $32,290 $11 10% 

2 84% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,394 $28,810 $32,203 -$23 25% 

3 85% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,622 $28,493 $32,115 -$33 35% 

4 97% AFUE - Max Tech $4,810 $27,093 $31,903 $179 52% 

All dollar values are in 2009 $ * discounted and summed over lifetime of equipment

Simulation Results NORTH

Installed Lifetime LCC Net

Level Description Price Oper. Cost* LCC Savings Cost

NWGF 5,986

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $1,901 $9,630 $11,531

1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $2,474 $8,689 $11,163 $98 12% 

2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,536 $8,521 $11,057 $143 15% 

3 95% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,685 $8,283 $10,968 $212 31% 

4 98% AFUE - Max Tech $2,943 $8,184 $11,127 $53 68% 

MHGF 4,892

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $1,488 $12,137 $13,624

1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $2,112 $11,118 $13,230 $360 50% 

2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,318 $10,901 $13,219 $369 52% 

3 96% AFUE - Max Tech $2,611 $10,494 $13,105 $479 55% 

OF 8,939

0 82% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,063 $30,022 $33,085

1 83% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,216 $29,684 $32,900 $10 10% 

2 84% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,460 $29,354 $32,815 -$27 25% 

3 85% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,692 $29,031 $32,724 -$37 35% 

4 97% AFUE - Max Tech $4,897 $27,615 $32,512 $176 52% 

Average LCC Results

Average LCC Results
All dollar values are in 2009 $ * discounted and summed over lifetime of equipment

Simulation Results SOUTH

Installed Lifetime LCC Net

Level Description Price Oper. Cost* LCC Savings Cost

NWGF 4,014

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $1,614 $5,719 $7,333

1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $2,182 $5,195 $7,377 -$73 51% 

2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,244 $5,102 $7,345 -$52 52% 

3 95% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,384 $4,969 $7,354 -$62 61% 

4 98% AFUE - Max Tech $2,661 $4,912 $7,574 -$282 78% 

MHGF 5,108

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $1,340 $10,866 $12,206

1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $1,916 $9,831 $11,747 $314 46% 

2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,124 $9,639 $11,763 $283 50% 

3 96% AFUE - Max Tech $2,415 $9,276 $11,691 $320 55% 

OF 1,061

0 82% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,549 $24,771 $27,320

1 83% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,656 $24,493 $27,150 $20 8% 

2 84% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,832 $24,222 $27,055 $12 22% 

3 85% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,027 $23,957 $26,985 -$1 34% 

4 97% AFUE - Max Tech $4,074 $22,698 $26,773 $203 53% 

All dollar values are in 2009 $ * discounted and summed over lifetime of equipment

Average LCC Results
AEO 2010 - Reference Case Simulation Results NATIONAL - Replacements

Payback Results

No Net Installed

Impact Benefit Median Average Level Description Price

NWGF

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $1,590

52% 20% 20.3 40.4 1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $2,357

42% 29% 15.3 32.5 2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,417

17% 40% 15.2 29.4 3 95% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,556

0% 28% 26.8 56.2 4 98% AFUE - Max Tech $2,802

MHGF

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $1,216

10% 42% 13.4 24.1 1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $1,870

8% 41% 14.3 24.8 2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,097

4% 42% 14.8 23.6 3 96% AFUE - Max Tech $2,385

OF

0 82% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,846

58% 32% 1.0 24.2 1 83% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,986

39% 37% 1.9 34.4 2 84% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,253

33% 32% 20.2 34.1 3 85% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,509

1% 47% 18.7 47.6 4 97% AFUE - Max Tech $4,828

All dollar values are in 2009 $

AEO 2010 - Reference Case Simulation Results NORTH - Replacements

Payback Results

No Net Installed

Impact Benefit Median Average Level Description Price

NWGF 4,465

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $1,713

71% 16% 13.2 16.7 1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $2,483

56% 29% 9.9 13.0 2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,543

23% 46% 12.3 14.7 3 95% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,687

1% 31% 22.3 36.3 4 98% AFUE - Max Tech $2,925

MHGF 2,451

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $1,413

10% 41% 13.8 26.3 1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $2,166

8% 40% 14.4 24.9 2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,410

3% 41% 14.6 21.7 3 96% AFUE - Max Tech $2,727

OF 8,033

0 82% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,896

58% 32% 1.0 24.7 1 83% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,041

39% 36% 2.0 35.5 2 84% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,317

33% 32% 20.4 35.0 3 85% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,577

1% 47% 18.7 48.4 4 97% AFUE - Max Tech $4,918
All dollar values are in 2009 $

AEO 2010 - Reference Case Simulation Results SOUTH - Replacements

Payback Results

No Net Installed

Impact Benefit Median Average Level Description Price

NWGF 3,044

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $1,411

24% 25% 30.0 53.7 1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $2,173

20% 28% 26.9 48.3 2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,231

8% 31% 26.1 47.9 3 95% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,365

0% 22% 38.5 83.0 4 98% AFUE - Max Tech $2,623

MHGF 2,547

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $1,026

10% 44% 12.7 22.1 1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $1,586

8% 42% 14.0 24.7 2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $1,796

4% 42% 15.0 25.4 3 96% AFUE - Max Tech $2,056

OF 967

0 82% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,430

60% 32% 1.1 20.1 1 83% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,531

39% 39% 1.5 25.6 2 84% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,726

33% 34% 17.6 26.8 3 85% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,942

1% 46% 18.8 40.2 4 97% AFUE - Max Tech $4,082

All dollar values are in 2009 $
AEO 2010 - Reference Case

Payback Results

Lifetime LCC Net No Net

Oper. Cost* LCC Savings Cost Impact Benefit Median Average

$7,961 $9,552

$7,197 $9,554 -$68 34% 52% 14% 27.0 49.9 

$7,061 $9,477 -$32 36% 42% 22% 19.6 39.4 

$6,867 $9,423 $8 48% 17% 35% 16.7 33.4 

$6,784 $9,586 -$154 75% 0% 24% 27.9 58.3 

$10,826 $12,041

$9,849 $11,719 $207 50% 9% 33% 15.0 26.1 

$9,655 $11,752 $162 53% 7% 32% 16.0 28.0 

$9,291 $11,676 $208 56% 3% 32% 16.2 25.7 

$29,459 $32,305

$29,127 $32,113 $6 10% 58% 32% 0.9 25.0 

$28,803 $32,056 -$57 27% 39% 34% 2.1 37.7 

$28,486 $31,995 -$95 39% 33% 28% 22.8 37.6 

$27,093 $31,921 -$18 57% 1% 42% 20.5 51.7 

* discounted and summed over lifetime of equipment

AEO 2010 - Reference Case

Payback Results

Lifetime LCC Net No Net

Oper. Cost* LCC Savings Cost Impact Benefit Median Average

$9,539 $11,252

$8,607 $11,090 $34 15% 72% 13% 16.8 20.7 

$8,440 $10,983 $79 17% 57% 26% 11.9 15.1 

$8,203 $10,890 $151 33% 23% 44% 12.6 15.3 

$8,104 $11,029 $13 70% 1% 30% 22.1 35.0 

$11,834 $13,248

$10,830 $12,995 $233 57% 9% 34% 15.3 27.5 

$10,618 $13,028 $201 59% 7% 34% 16.4 28.1 

$10,220 $12,947 $280 62% 3% 35% 16.1 23.4 

$30,030 $32,926

$29,692 $32,733 $4 10% 58% 32% 0.9 25.5 

$29,361 $32,678 -$63 27% 39% 34% 2.3 38.9 

$29,039 $32,616 -$101 39% 33% 28% 23.0 38.7 

$27,625 $32,543 -$26 57% 1% 42% 20.5 52.6 

Average LCC Results

Average LCC Results
* discounted and summed over lifetime of equipment

AEO 2010 - Reference Case

Payback Results

Lifetime LCC Net No Net

Oper. Cost* LCC Savings Cost Impact Benefit Median Average

$5,646 $7,057

$5,129 $7,302 -$219 62% 23% 15% 40.1 65.7 

$5,037 $7,268 -$196 63% 19% 18% 34.9 58.3 

$4,907 $7,271 -$201 70% 8% 22% 31.8 55.6 

$4,846 $7,469 -$398 83% 0% 17% 43.0 89.1 

$9,855 $10,881

$8,905 $10,491 $183 43% 8% 32% 14.1 24.8 

$8,728 $10,524 $124 47% 6% 30% 15.6 27.9 

$8,397 $10,453 $139 50% 3% 30% 16.3 27.9 

$24,711 $27,140

$24,434 $26,965 $17 9% 59% 32% 1.1 20.7 

$24,163 $26,889 -$9 24% 39% 37% 1.5 27.7 

$23,899 $26,841 -$42 37% 32% 31% 20.7 29.2 

$22,668 $26,750 $44 57% 1% 42% 20.5 43.9 

* discounted and summed over lifetime of equipment

Average LCC Results
Simulation Results NATIONAL - New Construction

Installed Lifetime LCC Net No

Level Description Price Oper. Cost* LCC Savings Cost Impact

NWGF

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,374 $8,360 $10,734

1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $2,355 $7,557 $9,912 $325 8% 53% 

2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,425 $7,414 $9,839 $357 11% 42% 

3 95% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,589 $7,212 $9,801 $383 27% 17% 

4 98% AFUE - Max Tech $2,913 $7,135 $10,047 $137 62% 1% 

MHGF

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,727 $19,532 $22,259

1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $3,621 $17,766 $21,388 $789 41% 10% 

2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,928 $17,421 $21,349 $825 44% 8% 

3 96% AFUE - Max Tech $4,424 $16,774 $21,198 $971 49% 4% 

OF

0 82% AFUE - Increased HX Area $4,471 $29,524 $33,995

1 83% AFUE - Increased HX Area $4,690 $29,193 $33,883 $56 12% 57% 

2 84% AFUE - Increased HX Area $4,659 $28,870 $33,529 $288 3% 39% 

3 85% AFUE - Increased HX Area $4,637 $28,554 $33,190 $525 1% 33% 

4 97% AFUE - Max Tech $4,646 $27,097 $31,743 $1,950 13% 1% 

All dollar values are in 2009 $ * discounted and summed over lifetime of equipment

Simulation Results NORTH - New Construction

Installed Lifetime LCC Net No

Level Description Price Oper. Cost* LCC Savings Cost Impact

NWGF 1,521

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,452 $9,898 $12,350

1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $2,447 $8,932 $11,379 $286 3% 70% 

2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,516 $8,760 $11,276 $330 6% 55% 

3 95% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,680 $8,516 $11,196 $390 23% 23% 

4 98% AFUE - Max Tech $2,996 $8,420 $11,416 $171 63% 1% 

MHGF 2,441

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $1,562 $12,440 $14,002

1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $2,058 $11,407 $13,465 $487 42% 10% 

2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,225 $11,185 $13,410 $538 45% 9% 

3 96% AFUE - Max Tech $2,494 $10,769 $13,263 $679 48% 4% 

OF 906

0 82% AFUE - Increased HX Area $4,543 $29,953 $34,496

1 83% AFUE - Increased HX Area $4,767 $29,617 $34,384 $57 13% 56% 

2 84% AFUE - Increased HX Area $4,735 $29,289 $34,024 $294 4% 39% 

3 85% AFUE - Increased HX Area $4,713 $28,968 $33,681 $535 1% 33% 

4 97% AFUE - Max Tech $4,713 $27,521 $32,234 $1,962 14% 1% 

Average LCC Results

Average LCC Results
All dollar values are in 2009 $ * discounted and summed over lifetime of equipment

Simulation Results SOUTH - New Construction

Installed Lifetime LCC Net No

Level Description (EF value at 40 Gallon) Price Oper. Cost* LCC Savings Cost Impact

NWGF 970

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,252 $5,948 $8,200

1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $2,211 $5,401 $7,612 $387 15% 27% 

2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,283 $5,304 $7,587 $400 18% 23% 

3 95% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,447 $5,166 $7,613 $373 33% 8% 

4 98% AFUE - Max Tech $2,782 $5,119 $7,902 $84 61% 0% 

MHGF 2,561

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,837 $26,292 $30,129

1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $5,112 $23,827 $28,939 $1,077 41% 9% 

2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $5,551 $23,365 $28,916 $1,099 44% 8% 

3 96% AFUE - Max Tech $6,264 $22,497 $28,762 $1,249 49% 4% 

OF 94

0 82% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,773 $25,392 $29,165

1 83% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,946 $25,109 $29,055 $45 6% 65% 

2 84% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,928 $24,832 $28,760 $226 0% 41% 

3 85% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,904 $24,562 $28,466 $423 0% 35% 

4 97% AFUE - Max Tech $4,001 $23,008 $27,008 $1,831 5% 2% 

All dollar values are in 2009 $ * discounted and summed over lifetime of equipment

Average LCC Results
AEO 2010 - Reference Case

Payback Results

Net

Benefit Median Average

39% 0.0 10.8 

47% 4.8 11.5 

56% 10.9 17.4 

37% 23.4 49.8 

49% 11.9 22.1 

48% 12.9 21.5 

48% 13.5 21.5 

31% 12.6 17.7 

58% 1.5 5.1 

66% 1.0 2.4 

86% 0.0 9.8 

AEO 2010 - Reference Case

Payback Results

Net

Benefit Median Average

27% 3.0 5.6 

39% 6.6 7.2 

54% 11.1 12.6 

36% 23.0 40.2 

47% 12.1 25.0 

47% 12.8 21.6 

48% 13.3 19.9 

31% 13.2 18.2 

58% 1.4 5.3 

66% 1.0 2.5 

85% 0.0 10.5 
AEO 2010 - Reference Case

Payback Results

Net

Benefit Median Average

58% 0.0 14.1 

59% 0.3 15.4 

59% 9.0 23.8 

38% 24.7 63.6 

50% 11.8 19.4 

48% 13.0 21.4 

47% 14.0 22.9 

29% 8.7 11.9 

59% 1.5 2.8 

65% 0.9 1.3 

93% 0.0 4.2 
ESWH Switch for GSWH

APGA Request: AEO 2011 High Shale Case for Natural Gas Prices

Simulation Results NATIONAL - 10000 samples

Installed Lifetime LCC Net

Level Description Price Oper. Cost* LCC Savings Cost

NWGF

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $1,781 $9,551 $11,333

1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $2,343 $8,646 $10,990 $76 26% 

2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,405 $8,480 $10,886 $125 27% 

3 95% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,551 $8,245 $10,796 $193 37% 

4 98% AFUE - Max Tech $2,817 $8,139 $10,956 $34 65% 

MHGF

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $1,432 $11,749 $13,181

1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $2,040 $10,712 $12,752 $389 44% 

2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,251 $10,503 $12,754 $387 47% 

3 96% AFUE - Max Tech $2,540 $10,110 $12,650 $486 50% 

OF

0 82% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,008 $30,287 $33,295

1 83% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,165 $29,946 $33,111 $6 11% 

2 84% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,397 $29,613 $33,010 -$16 25% 

3 85% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,619 $29,287 $32,906 -$15 34% 

4 97% AFUE - Max Tech $4,813 $27,809 $32,623 $268 51% 

All dollar values are in 2009 $ * discounted and summed over lifetime of equipment

Simulation Results NORTH

Installed Lifetime LCC Net

Level Description Price Oper. Cost* LCC Savings Cost

NWGF 5,986

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $1,894 $11,553 $13,447

1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $2,454 $10,435 $12,889 $148 10% 

2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,516 $10,232 $12,748 $208 11% 

3 95% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,665 $9,942 $12,607 $316 23% 

4 98% AFUE - Max Tech $2,923 $9,810 $12,733 $191 59% 

MHGF 4,892

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $1,488 $13,060 $14,548

1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $2,112 $11,974 $14,086 $420 44% 

2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,325 $11,740 $14,065 $438 47% 

3 96% AFUE - Max Tech $2,612 $11,301 $13,913 $585 49% 

OF 8,939

0 82% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,063 $30,842 $33,905

1 83% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,223 $30,495 $33,718 $7 11% 

2 84% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,464 $30,156 $33,619 -$21 25% 

3 85% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,689 $29,824 $33,513 -$18 35% 

4 97% AFUE - Max Tech $4,901 $28,331 $33,232 $263 51% 

Average LCC Results

Average LCC Results
All dollar values are in 2009 $ * discounted and summed over lifetime of equipment

Simulation Results SOUTH

Installed Lifetime LCC Net

Level Description Price Oper. Cost* LCC Savings Cost

NWGF 4,014

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $1,614 $6,566 $8,180

1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $2,179 $5,978 $8,157 -$32 49% 

2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,240 $5,869 $8,109 $0 49% 

3 95% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,381 $5,715 $8,096 $10 57% 

4 98% AFUE - Max Tech $2,658 $5,647 $8,305 -$199 73% 

MHGF 5,108

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $1,340 $11,453 $12,793

1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $1,915 $10,366 $12,281 $359 43% 

2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,124 $10,162 $12,286 $337 47% 

3 96% AFUE - Max Tech $2,413 $9,780 $12,193 $392 51% 

OF 1,061

0 82% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,549 $25,606 $28,154

1 83% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,675 $25,319 $27,993 $5 10% 

2 84% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,835 $25,038 $27,873 $18 21% 

3 85% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,028 $24,764 $27,792 $14 33% 

4 97% AFUE - Max Tech $4,076 $23,413 $27,489 $306 51% 

All dollar values are in 2009 $ * discounted and summed over lifetime of equipment

Average LCC Results
AEO 2010 - Reference Case Simulation Results NATIONAL - Replacements

Payback Results

No Net Installed

Impact Benefit Median Average Level Description Price

NWGF

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $1,586

52% 22% 16.1 33.5 1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $2,338

42% 32% 11.9 28.2 2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,398

17% 46% 11.7 24.2 3 95% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,537

0% 35% 20.1 44.2 4 98% AFUE - Max Tech $2,783

MHGF

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $1,216

10% 47% 10.5 17.8 1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $1,869

8% 45% 11.7 19.3 2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,102

4% 46% 11.9 19.2 3 96% AFUE - Max Tech $2,385

OF

0 82% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,846

58% 31% 1.0 23.9 1 83% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,996

39% 37% 2.0 32.8 2 84% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,256

33% 32% 19.9 33.3 3 85% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,507

1% 48% 18.4 46.4 4 97% AFUE - Max Tech $4,833

All dollar values are in 2009 $

AEO 2010 - Reference Case Simulation Results NORTH - Replacements

Payback Results

No Net Installed

Impact Benefit Median Average Level Description Price

NWGF 4,465

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $1,705

71% 18% 10.2 13.1 1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $2,456

56% 32% 7.7 10.4 2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,516

23% 54% 9.4 11.5 3 95% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,660

1% 41% 17.2 28.5 4 98% AFUE - Max Tech $2,898

MHGF 2,451

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $1,413

10% 46% 10.7 17.2 1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $2,166

8% 46% 11.5 17.5 2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,424

3% 48% 11.5 16.7 3 96% AFUE - Max Tech $2,729

OF 8,033

0 82% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,896

58% 31% 1.0 24.0 1 83% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,049

39% 36% 2.3 33.9 2 84% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,320

33% 32% 20.0 34.2 3 85% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,575

1% 48% 18.4 46.9 4 97% AFUE - Max Tech $4,923
All dollar values are in 2009 $

AEO 2010 - Reference Case Simulation Results SOUTH - Replacements

Payback Results

No Net Installed

Impact Benefit Median Average Level Description Price

NWGF 3,044

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $1,412

24% 27% 24.4 45.0 1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $2,165

20% 31% 21.8 42.8 2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,224

8% 35% 21.1 40.2 3 95% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,357

0% 27% 29.3 67.3 4 98% AFUE - Max Tech $2,616

MHGF 2,547

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $1,026

10% 47% 10.2 18.4 1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $1,584

8% 45% 11.9 20.9 2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $1,792

4% 45% 12.4 21.7 3 96% AFUE - Max Tech $2,053

OF 967

0 82% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,430

60% 30% 1.1 22.9 1 83% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,551

39% 40% 1.5 23.7 2 84% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,728

33% 34% 17.1 26.5 3 85% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,942

1% 48% 18.3 42.5 4 97% AFUE - Max Tech $4,083

All dollar values are in 2009 $
AEO 2010 - Reference Case

Payback Results

Lifetime LCC Net No Net

Oper. Cost* LCC Savings Cost Impact Benefit Median Average

$9,441 $11,027

$8,543 $10,882 -$17 31% 52% 17% 21.2 41.1 

$8,379 $10,777 $33 32% 42% 27% 15.4 34.0 

$8,146 $10,684 $105 42% 17% 42% 13.0 27.2 

$8,038 $10,822 -$33 67% 0% 32% 20.6 44.7 

$11,552 $12,768

$10,516 $12,386 $259 46% 9% 37% 11.7 19.8 

$10,309 $12,411 $222 50% 7% 35% 13.0 21.7 

$9,920 $12,305 $294 52% 3% 36% 13.0 21.2 

$30,279 $33,124

$29,937 $32,933 $0 10% 58% 31% 0.9 24.5 

$29,604 $32,861 -$51 27% 39% 34% 2.3 35.8 

$29,279 $32,785 -$77 38% 33% 29% 22.5 36.8 

$27,806 $32,639 $71 56% 1% 43% 20.0 50.5 

* discounted and summed over lifetime of equipment

AEO 2010 - Reference Case

Payback Results

Lifetime LCC Net No Net

Oper. Cost* LCC Savings Cost Impact Benefit Median Average

$11,464 $13,168

$10,350 $12,806 $87 12% 72% 16% 12.7 16.1 

$10,147 $12,663 $147 13% 57% 30% 8.8 11.8 

$9,859 $12,519 $259 25% 23% 52% 9.6 11.9 

$9,726 $12,624 $154 60% 1% 40% 17.0 26.6 

$12,797 $14,210

$11,718 $13,884 $300 52% 9% 39% 11.9 18.7 

$11,489 $13,912 $274 55% 7% 38% 13.0 19.6 

$11,057 $13,787 $394 57% 3% 40% 12.7 18.4 

$30,849 $33,745

$30,501 $33,551 $0 10% 58% 31% 0.9 24.6 

$30,162 $33,481 -$56 28% 39% 34% 2.7 37.0 

$29,830 $33,404 -$83 38% 33% 28% 22.7 37.8 

$28,340 $33,263 $61 56% 1% 43% 20.1 51.0 

Average LCC Results

Average LCC Results
* discounted and summed over lifetime of equipment

AEO 2010 - Reference Case

Payback Results

Lifetime LCC Net No Net

Oper. Cost* LCC Savings Cost Impact Benefit Median Average

$6,474 $7,886

$5,893 $8,059 -$170 59% 23% 18% 31.7 54.5 

$5,786 $8,010 -$135 59% 19% 22% 27.8 51.3 

$5,634 $7,991 -$120 66% 8% 27% 25.3 46.0 

$5,563 $8,178 -$307 78% 0% 22% 32.3 70.7 

$10,355 $11,381

$9,360 $10,944 $220 41% 8% 34% 11.6 20.8 

$9,174 $10,967 $171 45% 6% 33% 13.1 23.7 

$8,826 $10,878 $197 48% 3% 33% 13.6 23.8 

$25,541 $27,971

$25,254 $27,806 $1 11% 59% 30% 1.1 23.8 

$24,974 $27,703 -$3 23% 39% 38% 1.6 25.6 

$24,701 $27,643 -$27 36% 32% 32% 20.0 28.8 

$23,377 $27,460 $150 56% 1% 43% 19.6 46.4 

* discounted and summed over lifetime of equipment

Average LCC Results
Simulation Results NATIONAL - New Construction

Installed Lifetime LCC Net No

Level Description Price Oper. Cost* LCC Savings Cost Impact

NWGF

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,370 $9,885 $12,254

1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $2,359 $8,957 $11,315 $356 9% 53% 

2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,429 $8,786 $11,214 $402 11% 42% 

3 95% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,593 $8,543 $11,135 $460 22% 17% 

4 98% AFUE - Max Tech $2,916 $8,443 $11,359 $237 56% 1% 

MHGF

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,727 $20,743 $23,470

1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $3,621 $18,879 $22,500 $877 37% 10% 

2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,932 $18,512 $22,444 $928 40% 8% 

3 96% AFUE - Max Tech $4,424 $17,822 $22,247 $1,117 43% 4% 

OF

0 82% AFUE - Increased HX Area $4,468 $30,362 $34,830

1 83% AFUE - Increased HX Area $4,684 $30,021 $34,705 $63 12% 57% 

2 84% AFUE - Increased HX Area $4,663 $29,689 $34,352 $291 4% 39% 

3 85% AFUE - Increased HX Area $4,631 $29,364 $33,995 $543 1% 33% 

4 97% AFUE - Max Tech $4,638 $27,835 $32,473 $2,041 12% 1% 

All dollar values are in 2009 $ * discounted and summed over lifetime of equipment

Simulation Results NORTH - New Construction

Installed Lifetime LCC Net No

Level Description Price Oper. Cost* LCC Savings Cost Impact

NWGF 1,521

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,449 $11,815 $14,264

1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $2,447 $10,687 $13,134 $327 3% 70% 

2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,516 $10,479 $12,995 $388 5% 55% 

3 95% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,680 $10,184 $12,864 $486 17% 23% 

4 98% AFUE - Max Tech $2,996 $10,057 $13,053 $298 56% 1% 

MHGF 2,441

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $1,562 $13,325 $14,887

1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $2,058 $12,231 $14,289 $540 36% 10% 

2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,226 $11,993 $14,219 $603 38% 9% 

3 96% AFUE - Max Tech $2,494 $11,546 $14,040 $776 41% 4% 

OF 906

0 82% AFUE - Increased HX Area $4,541 $30,786 $35,326

1 83% AFUE - Increased HX Area $4,761 $30,441 $35,201 $64 13% 56% 

2 84% AFUE - Increased HX Area $4,739 $30,103 $34,842 $297 4% 39% 

3 85% AFUE - Increased HX Area $4,706 $29,774 $34,480 $554 1% 33% 

4 97% AFUE - Max Tech $4,704 $28,255 $32,959 $2,054 12% 1% 

Average LCC Results

Average LCC Results
All dollar values are in 2009 $ * discounted and summed over lifetime of equipment

Simulation Results SOUTH - New Construction

Installed Lifetime LCC Net No

Level Description (EF value at 40 Gallon) Price Oper. Cost* LCC Savings Cost Impact

NWGF 970

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,246 $6,857 $9,103

1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $2,220 $6,244 $8,464 $401 17% 27% 

2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,292 $6,130 $8,422 $425 19% 23% 

3 95% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,456 $5,969 $8,425 $418 30% 8% 

4 98% AFUE - Max Tech $2,791 $5,912 $8,703 $140 57% 0% 

MHGF 2,561

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,837 $27,815 $31,652

1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $5,112 $25,215 $30,327 $1,198 38% 9% 

2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $5,558 $24,725 $30,282 $1,238 41% 8% 

3 96% AFUE - Max Tech $6,264 $23,805 $30,069 $1,443 45% 4% 

OF 94

0 82% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,773 $26,274 $30,047

1 83% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,945 $25,980 $29,925 $49 7% 65% 

2 84% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,928 $25,694 $29,622 $234 3% 41% 

3 85% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,910 $25,414 $29,323 $431 0% 35% 

4 97% AFUE - Max Tech $4,005 $23,782 $27,787 $1,916 6% 2% 

All dollar values are in 2009 $ * discounted and summed over lifetime of equipment

Average LCC Results
AEO 2010 - Reference Case

Payback Results

Net

Benefit Median Average

38% 0.2 10.2 

47% 4.4 10.5 

61% 8.6 15.2 

43% 18.4 42.9 

53% 9.3 15.9 

52% 10.2 16.8 

53% 10.9 17.3 

31% 12.2 18.3 

57% 1.4 5.5 

66% 0.9 2.2 

87% 0.0 9.1 

AEO 2010 - Reference Case

Payback Results

Net

Benefit Median Average

27% 3.1 4.7 

40% 5.2 6.2 

60% 8.8 10.2 

43% 18.0 34.1 

54% 9.1 15.6 

53% 10.0 15.3 

55% 10.4 14.9 

31% 12.6 18.8 

58% 1.4 5.7 

66% 0.9 2.3 

87% 0.0 9.6 
AEO 2010 - Reference Case

Payback Results

Net

Benefit Median Average

56% 0.0 13.7 

58% 1.1 14.4 

62% 8.4 21.7 

43% 19.5 56.5 

53% 9.5 16.1 

51% 10.7 18.2 

51% 11.6 19.5 

28% 7.0 12.1 

55% 1.4 3.0 

65% 1.0 1.3 

91% 0.0 4.0 
No Chimney Relining

APGA Request: No Chimney Relining

Simulation Results NATIONAL - 10000 samples

Installed Lifetime LCC Net

Level Description Price Oper. Cost* LCC Savings Cost

NWGF

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $1,735 $9,551 $11,287

1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $2,340 $8,621 $10,962 $76 26% 

2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,402 $8,456 $10,858 $126 27% 

3 95% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,548 $8,220 $10,768 $194 37% 

4 98% AFUE - Max Tech $2,813 $8,114 $10,927 $35 65% 

MHGF

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $1,432 $11,749 $13,181

1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $2,040 $10,712 $12,753 $388 44% 

2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,248 $10,503 $12,751 $389 47% 

3 96% AFUE - Max Tech $2,540 $10,110 $12,650 $486 50% 

OF

0 82% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,008 $30,287 $33,295

1 83% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,157 $29,946 $33,103 $15 10% 

2 84% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,394 $29,613 $33,007 -$13 24% 

3 85% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,622 $29,287 $32,909 -$18 35% 

4 97% AFUE - Max Tech $4,810 $27,809 $32,619 $272 51% 

All dollar values are in 2009 $ * discounted and summed over lifetime of equipment

Simulation Results NORTH

Installed Lifetime LCC Net

Level Description Price Oper. Cost* LCC Savings Cost

NWGF 5,986

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $1,825 $11,553 $13,378

1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $2,448 $10,409 $12,858 $141 11% 

2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,511 $10,206 $12,716 $202 12% 

3 95% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,659 $9,916 $12,575 $310 23% 

4 98% AFUE - Max Tech $2,917 $9,784 $12,701 $185 59% 

MHGF 4,892

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $1,488 $13,060 $14,548

1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $2,112 $11,974 $14,086 $419 44% 

2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,318 $11,740 $14,058 $444 46% 

3 96% AFUE - Max Tech $2,611 $11,301 $13,912 $585 49% 

OF 8,939

0 82% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,063 $30,842 $33,905

1 83% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,216 $30,495 $33,711 $14 10% 

2 84% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,460 $30,156 $33,616 -$17 25% 

3 85% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,692 $29,824 $33,516 -$21 35% 

4 97% AFUE - Max Tech $4,897 $28,331 $33,228 $267 51% 

Average LCC Results

Average LCC Results
All dollar values are in 2009 $ * discounted and summed over lifetime of equipment

Simulation Results SOUTH

Installed Lifetime LCC Net

Level Description Price Oper. Cost* LCC Savings Cost

NWGF 4,014

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $1,601 $6,566 $8,167

1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $2,179 $5,955 $8,134 -$21 48% 

2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,240 $5,846 $8,087 $11 49% 

3 95% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,381 $5,692 $8,073 $21 57% 

4 98% AFUE - Max Tech $2,658 $5,624 $8,283 -$188 73% 

MHGF 5,108

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $1,340 $11,453 $12,793

1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $1,916 $10,366 $12,282 $357 44% 

2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,124 $10,162 $12,287 $336 47% 

3 96% AFUE - Max Tech $2,415 $9,780 $12,194 $391 51% 

OF 1,061

0 82% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,549 $25,606 $28,154

1 83% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,656 $25,319 $27,975 $24 8% 

2 84% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,832 $25,038 $27,870 $21 22% 

3 85% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,027 $24,764 $27,791 $14 33% 

4 97% AFUE - Max Tech $4,074 $23,413 $27,487 $308 51% 

All dollar values are in 2009 $ * discounted and summed over lifetime of equipment

Average LCC Results
AEO 2010 - Reference Case Simulation Results NATIONAL - Replacements

Payback Results

No Net Installed

Impact Benefit Median Average Level Description Price

NWGF

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $1,523

52% 22% 16.4 34.4 1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $2,335

42% 32% 12.3 28.8 2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,395

17% 46% 12.0 24.5 3 95% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,534

0% 35% 20.4 44.5 4 98% AFUE - Max Tech $2,780

MHGF

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $1,216

10% 47% 10.5 17.9 1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $1,870

8% 46% 11.6 19.2 2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,097

4% 47% 11.9 19.2 3 96% AFUE - Max Tech $2,385

OF

0 82% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,846

58% 32% 1.0 23.9 1 83% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,986

39% 37% 1.9 33.8 2 84% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,253

33% 32% 19.8 33.5 3 85% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,509

1% 48% 18.2 48.2 4 97% AFUE - Max Tech $4,828

All dollar values are in 2009 $

AEO 2010 - Reference Case Simulation Results NORTH - Replacements

Payback Results

No Net Installed

Impact Benefit Median Average Level Description Price

NWGF 4,465

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $1,611

71% 18% 10.9 13.7 1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $2,449

56% 32% 8.1 10.6 2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,509

23% 54% 9.6 11.6 3 95% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,652

1% 40% 17.3 28.4 4 98% AFUE - Max Tech $2,891

MHGF 2,451

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $1,413

10% 47% 10.7 17.2 1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $2,166

8% 46% 11.4 17.5 2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,410

3% 48% 11.5 16.6 3 96% AFUE - Max Tech $2,727

OF 8,033

0 82% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,896

58% 32% 1.0 24.4 1 83% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,041

39% 37% 2.0 34.9 2 84% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,317

33% 32% 20.0 34.4 3 85% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,577

1% 48% 18.2 48.8 4 97% AFUE - Max Tech $4,918
All dollar values are in 2009 $

AEO 2010 - Reference Case Simulation Results SOUTH - Replacements

Payback Results

No Net Installed

Impact Benefit Median Average Level Description Price

NWGF 3,044

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $1,394

24% 27% 24.5 46.1 1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $2,168

20% 31% 21.7 43.6 2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,227

8% 35% 20.7 40.8 3 95% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,360

0% 27% 29.2 68.0 4 98% AFUE - Max Tech $2,619

MHGF 2,547

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $1,026

10% 47% 10.3 18.5 1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $1,586

8% 45% 11.8 20.9 2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $1,796

4% 45% 12.4 21.7 3 96% AFUE - Max Tech $2,056

OF 967

0 82% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,430

60% 32% 1.1 19.6 1 83% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,531

39% 39% 1.5 24.8 2 84% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,726

33% 34% 17.2 26.2 3 85% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,942

1% 48% 18.2 43.8 4 97% AFUE - Max Tech $4,082

All dollar values are in 2009 $
AEO 2010 - Reference Case

Payback Results

Lifetime LCC Net No Net

Oper. Cost* LCC Savings Cost Impact Benefit Median Average

$9,441 $10,964

$8,522 $10,857 -$26 32% 52% 16% 21.8 42.6 

$8,358 $10,752 $25 32% 42% 26% 15.8 35.1 

$8,125 $10,659 $97 42% 17% 41% 13.3 27.9 

$8,017 $10,797 -$41 68% 0% 32% 20.9 45.8 

$11,552 $12,768

$10,516 $12,387 $258 46% 9% 37% 11.8 19.8 

$10,309 $12,407 $224 50% 7% 36% 13.0 21.7 

$9,920 $12,305 $294 52% 3% 37% 13.0 21.2 

$30,279 $33,124

$29,937 $32,924 $10 10% 58% 32% 0.9 24.6 

$29,604 $32,858 -$48 27% 39% 35% 2.0 37.0 

$29,279 $32,788 -$79 38% 33% 29% 22.5 37.0 

$27,807 $32,635 $75 55% 1% 44% 20.0 52.7 

* discounted and summed over lifetime of equipment

AEO 2010 - Reference Case

Payback Results

Lifetime LCC Net No Net

Oper. Cost* LCC Savings Cost Impact Benefit Median Average

$11,464 $13,075

$10,328 $12,777 $73 14% 72% 15% 13.7 17.1 

$10,126 $12,634 $133 14% 57% 29% 9.6 12.4 

$9,838 $12,490 $244 26% 23% 51% 9.9 12.2 

$9,704 $12,595 $140 61% 1% 39% 17.1 26.7 

$12,797 $14,210

$11,718 $13,884 $299 51% 9% 40% 11.9 18.7 

$11,489 $13,899 $284 54% 7% 39% 12.9 19.6 

$11,057 $13,785 $395 56% 3% 41% 12.6 18.4 

$30,849 $33,745

$30,501 $33,542 $8 10% 58% 32% 0.9 25.1 

$30,162 $33,478 -$53 27% 39% 34% 2.2 38.2 

$29,830 $33,407 -$86 39% 33% 28% 22.7 38.0 

$28,340 $33,258 $66 55% 1% 44% 20.1 53.3 

Average LCC Results

Average LCC Results
* discounted and summed over lifetime of equipment

AEO 2010 - Reference Case

Payback Results

Lifetime LCC Net No Net

Oper. Cost* LCC Savings Cost Impact Benefit Median Average

$6,474 $7,867

$5,872 $8,040 -$170 59% 23% 17% 32.4 56.4 

$5,765 $7,992 -$135 59% 19% 22% 28.5 52.8 

$5,612 $7,973 -$120 66% 8% 26% 25.9 47.3 

$5,542 $8,160 -$307 78% 0% 22% 32.8 73.2 

$10,355 $11,381

$9,360 $10,946 $218 41% 8% 34% 11.6 20.9 

$9,174 $10,970 $166 45% 6% 32% 13.4 23.7 

$8,826 $10,881 $196 48% 3% 33% 13.7 23.8 

$25,541 $27,971

$25,254 $27,785 $21 9% 59% 32% 1.0 20.3 

$24,974 $27,700 $0 24% 39% 37% 1.4 26.9 

$24,701 $27,643 -$27 37% 32% 31% 20.0 28.5 

$23,379 $27,461 $150 55% 1% 44% 19.8 47.9 

* discounted and summed over lifetime of equipment

Average LCC Results
Simulation Results NATIONAL - New Construction

Installed Lifetime LCC Net No

Level Description Price Oper. Cost* LCC Savings Cost Impact

NWGF

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,374 $9,885 $12,259

1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $2,355 $8,922 $11,277 $383 7% 53% 

2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,425 $8,751 $11,176 $429 9% 42% 

3 95% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,589 $8,508 $11,097 $487 21% 17% 

4 98% AFUE - Max Tech $2,913 $8,408 $11,320 $264 55% 1% 

MHGF

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,727 $20,743 $23,470

1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $3,621 $18,879 $22,500 $877 37% 10% 

2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,928 $18,512 $22,439 $933 40% 8% 

3 96% AFUE - Max Tech $4,424 $17,822 $22,247 $1,119 43% 4% 

OF

0 82% AFUE - Increased HX Area $4,471 $30,362 $34,832

1 83% AFUE - Increased HX Area $4,690 $30,021 $34,711 $60 12% 57% 

2 84% AFUE - Increased HX Area $4,659 $29,689 $34,348 $297 3% 39% 

3 85% AFUE - Increased HX Area $4,637 $29,364 $34,000 $540 1% 33% 

4 97% AFUE - Max Tech $4,646 $27,829 $32,475 $2,041 12% 1% 

All dollar values are in 2009 $ * discounted and summed over lifetime of equipment

Simulation Results NORTH - New Construction

Installed Lifetime LCC Net No

Level Description Price Oper. Cost* LCC Savings Cost Impact

NWGF 1,521

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,452 $11,815 $14,268

1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $2,447 $10,647 $13,094 $343 2% 70% 

2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,516 $10,440 $12,956 $404 4% 55% 

3 95% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,680 $10,145 $12,825 $502 16% 23% 

4 98% AFUE - Max Tech $2,996 $10,017 $13,012 $315 55% 1% 

MHGF 2,441

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $1,562 $13,325 $14,887

1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $2,058 $12,231 $14,289 $540 36% 10% 

2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,225 $11,993 $14,218 $606 38% 9% 

3 96% AFUE - Max Tech $2,494 $11,546 $14,040 $776 41% 4% 

OF 906

0 82% AFUE - Increased HX Area $4,543 $30,786 $35,329

1 83% AFUE - Increased HX Area $4,767 $30,441 $35,208 $61 13% 56% 

2 84% AFUE - Increased HX Area $4,735 $30,103 $34,838 $304 4% 39% 

3 85% AFUE - Increased HX Area $4,713 $29,774 $34,486 $550 1% 33% 

4 97% AFUE - Max Tech $4,713 $28,251 $32,964 $2,052 13% 1% 

Average LCC Results

Average LCC Results
All dollar values are in 2009 $ * discounted and summed over lifetime of equipment

Simulation Results SOUTH - New Construction

Installed Lifetime LCC Net No

Level Description (EF value at 40 Gallon) Price Oper. Cost* LCC Savings Cost Impact

NWGF 970

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,252 $6,857 $9,109

1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $2,211 $6,216 $8,428 $445 14% 27% 

2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,283 $6,103 $8,386 $469 16% 23% 

3 95% AFUE - Increased HX Area $2,447 $5,942 $8,388 $463 28% 8% 

4 98% AFUE - Max Tech $2,782 $5,885 $8,667 $184 56% 0% 

MHGF 2,561

0 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,837 $27,815 $31,652

1 90% AFUE - Condensing Design $5,112 $25,215 $30,327 $1,198 38% 9% 

2 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area $5,551 $24,725 $30,276 $1,245 41% 8% 

3 96% AFUE - Max Tech $6,264 $23,805 $30,069 $1,445 45% 4% 

OF 94

0 82% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,773 $26,274 $30,047

1 83% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,946 $25,980 $29,926 $48 6% 65% 

2 84% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,928 $25,694 $29,621 $234 0% 41% 

3 85% AFUE - Increased HX Area $3,904 $25,414 $29,318 $437 0% 35% 

4 97% AFUE - Max Tech $4,001 $23,761 $27,762 $1,940 5% 2% 

All dollar values are in 2009 $ * discounted and summed over lifetime of equipment

Average LCC Results
AEO 2010 - Reference Case

Payback Results

Net

Benefit Median Average

40% 0.0 9.0 

49% 3.7 9.5 

62% 8.4 14.3 

44% 18.2 40.4 

53% 9.3 15.9 

52% 10.1 16.7 

53% 10.9 17.2 

31% 12.6 17.4 

58% 1.4 5.0 

66% 0.9 2.4 

87% 0.0 7.1 

AEO 2010 - Reference Case

Payback Results

Net

Benefit Median Average

27% 2.5 4.3 

41% 5.1 5.5 

61% 8.8 9.8 

44% 17.9 33.3 

54% 9.1 15.6 

53% 9.8 15.3 

55% 10.4 14.8 

31% 12.9 17.9 

58% 1.4 5.2 

66% 1.0 2.5 

86% 0.0 7.5 
AEO 2010 - Reference Case

Payback Results

Net

Benefit Median Average

59% 0.0 12.0 

61% 0.3 13.3 

63% 7.1 20.2 

43% 18.9 51.3 

53% 9.5 16.1 

51% 10.6 18.0 

51% 11.6 19.5 

29% 8.3 11.5 

59% 1.5 2.7 

65% 0.9 1.3 

93% 0.0 3.7