Commercial Air Conditioners and Heat Pumps 

# MARKET AND TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT Mark Kendall (kendall.mark@adlittle.com) Arthur D. Little, Inc. U.S. DOE Workshop on Standards for Commercial Air Conditioners and Heat Pumps September 12, 2001 Commercial Air Conditioners and Heat Pumps

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# MARKET AND TECHNOLOGYASSESSMENT

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# Mark Kendall (kendall.mark@adlittle.com) .Arthur D. Little, Inc. U.S. 

### DOE Workshop on Standards for Commercial Air Conditioners and Heat Pumps September 12, 2001

### Market Assessment

· '3! Overview The information collected during the Market and Technology Assessment is fundamental to several downstream analyses. Screening Analysis Market and Technology National Energy Savings Assessment

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### Manufacturer Impact Analysis Firms and industry structure Product characteristics Historical shipments Non-regulatory incentives Regional differences

ItI.B. Market Assessent 083001 Market Assessment Overview 

### The information collected during the Market and Technology Assessment is fundamental to several downstream analyses. Market and Technology Assessment 

### ScreeningAnalysis National Energy Savings ManufacturerImpact Analysis Firms and industry structure Product characteristics Historical shipments Non-regulatory incentives Regional differences

III.B. Market Alless8nt 083001

### Market Assessment Information Sources The Department is currently gathering information from the 

### The Department is currently gathering information from the following sources: US DOE Commercial Building Energy Consumption Survey, 1992, 1995, and 1999 Product Technical and Sales Literature US Census Current Industrial Reports SEC 10-K Annual Reports ARI Statistical Profile, 2000 ARI Large Unitary Products Directory California Energy Commission database 

### Whatadditionalsourcesshouldthe Department consider? Are thestakeholderswillingtoprovidemore detailed information?

III.B. Market Assessent 083001 , , Market Assessment Information Sources The Department is currently gathering information from the following sources: US DOE Commercial Building Energy Consumption Survey, 1992, 1995, and 1999 Product Technical and Sales Literature US Census Current Industrial Reports SEC 10-K Annual Reports ARI Statistical Profile, 2000 ARI Large Unitary Products Directory California Energy Commission database Whatadditionalsources should the Department consider? Are the stakeholders willing to provide more detailed information?

III.B. Market Aallllent 083001 2

### ·- Market Assessment Specific Topics The market assessment raises several important questions. 

### * Shouldthe Department considerregional differences in product distribution, use, orinstallation? If so, which ones? * Whatassumptions regarding the impactofnon-regulatory initiatives (e.g. ASHRAE 90.1-1999, Energy Star, utility rebates) shouldDOE use inthe analysis? * Are there any impending changes inthe market ofwhich the Department shouldbe aware?

III.B. Market Assessent 083001 Market Assessment Specific Topics The market assessment raises several important questions.

• Should the Departmentconsiderregional differences in product distribution,· use, orinstallation? Ifso, which ones? • Whatassumptions regarding the impact ofnon-regulatory initiatives (e.g. ASHRAE90. 1-1999, Energy Star, utility rebates) should DOE use in the analysis? • Are there. anyimpending changes in the market ofwhich the Departmentshouldbe aware?

III.B. Market AII... ent 083001 3

### i j Product Classes Ah r Proposed Product Classes 

### Separate classes of air conditioners and heat pumps can be established in order to accommodate differences in product efficiency and to preserve consumer utility. * Are the following classes appropriate?

- AC (cooling-only) (>=65 and <135 kBtu/hr)

- AC (cooling-only) (>=135 and <=240 kBtu/hr)

- Heat Pump (>=65 and <135 kBtu/hr)

- Heat Pump (>=135 and <=240 kBtu/hr) 

### * Are additional classes warranted basedon unique features thatimpact energy use (e.g. heatrecovery) or utility(e.g. dehumidification)?

III.B. Market Assessent 083001 Product Classes Proposed Product Classes 

### Separate classes of air conditioners and heat pumps can be established in order to accommodate differences in product efficiency and to preserve consumer utility_
• Are the following classes appropriate?



### • AC (cooling-only) (>=65 and <135 kBtu/hr) AC (cooling-only) (>=135 and <=240 kBtu/hr) Heat Pump (>=65 and <135 kBtu/hr) Heat Pump (>=135 and <=240 kBtu/hr) 

### .Are additionalclasses warrantedbasedon unique features thatimpactenergyuse (e.g. heatrecovery) or utility(e.g. dehumidification)?

III.B. Market Assallent 083001 4

### Ep Baseline Models 5: rOverview 

### The Department defines baseline model characteristics to serve as the basis,forthe analysis.

* Includes capacity, configuration, efficiency, and features * Usually based on the most commonly sold minimum efficiency product ineach product class * Serves as the basis for cost and performance estimates that are intended to represent the "typical" product

111.B. Market Assesent 083001 " , Baseline Models Overview 

### The Department defi,nes baseline model characteristics to serve as the basis'for the analysis.

• Includes capacity, configuration, efficiency, and features • Usually based on the most commonly sold minimum efficiency product in each product class 

### • Serves as the basis for cost and performance estimates that are intended to represent the ''typical'' product

III.B. MerketAII.llant 083001 5

### Overview

,~~~ Basel~;~P~·F~;:~"ine M..odls: 

### Based on the market assessment, the Department suggests usingthe following characteristics to define baseline air conditioners and heat pumps forthe analysis. Packaged, year-round (for cooling-only systems) <1 35kBtu/hr: >=1 35kBtu/hr: 7.5 tons, 8.9 EER, 3.0 COP 15 tons, 8.5 EER, 2.9 COP 8.0 IPLV 8.0 IPLV single compressor dual compressors 

### * Are these features/levels appropriate? Shouldotherfeatures be added? * Are multiple baseline units (e.g. more than one capacity) needed within a class? * Should comparable analysis be performed forotherproduct types (e.g. splitsystems, or systems without integralgas heat)?
III.B. Market Asessent 083001 Baseline Models Overview Based on the market assessment, the Department suggests usingthefollowing characteristics to define baseline air conditioners and heat pumps for the analysis. Packaged, year-round (for cooling-only systems) <135kBtu/hr: 7.5 tons, 8.9 EER, 3.0 COP 8.0IPLV single compressor >=135kBtu/hr: 15 tons, 8.5 EER, 2.9 COP B.O IPLV dual compressors • Are these features/levels appropriate? Shouldotherfeatures be added? • Are multiple baseline units (e.g. more than one capacity) needed within a class? • Shouldcomparable analysis be performed forotherproduct types (e.g. splitsystems, orsystems without integralgas heat)?

III.B. Market Aaoellent 083001 6,I- I.-.^ Backup slides

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### Baseline Models Product Capacity (Input Rating) 

### Covera4- ie6iciency range varies considerably by cap '.u co-and manufacturer.



### -~ Should this cause ,Uni~,·; %.-_--..~-the Departmentto DirectorWnter200 relyless on actual

All commercial unitary - equipment shown. III.B. Market Assessent 083001 l~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ , I Baseline Models Product Capacity (Input Rating) iency range varies considerably by ca

EER

,Source: ARI Large

Unitary Equipment DirectoryWinter 2000 All commercial unitary equipment shown. d manufacturer.

I I Should this cause the Department to relyless on actual I equipmentdata and I more on modeling?

III.B. Market Aaaellent 083001 8

### j-p, Baseline Models J Product Efficiency 

### IOnly afew manufacturers produce splitsystems >= 135kBTU/hr,



### and the most efficient system attains only 10 EER. ' I

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### /./X/0.---:---. _..-... ----.. . . ..... ...--... -- , Is this relatively 

### low efficiency limitdue to

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### consider

## these ~~~~~~~~~~tDirectory Winter 2000ehiaor 

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8.59.1~~~ ~10 

### consider these 03001 

### 9 Source: ARI Large EER 9.3 ~ .~ UnitaryEquipment 9.5 Directory Winter 2000 9.6 9.8
11I.B. Market Assessnt 083001**~Baseline** Modeis

. Product Efficiency

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# .. .**.""AEg,~:,,_g~~_:__** ... un ..... I Only a few manufacturers produce split systems >= 135kBTU/hr, :and the most efficient system attains only 10 EER.

8.5 8.7 "'1-'·,. 8.9 9 9.2 Source: ARI Large EER Unitary Equipment DirectoryWinter 2000 

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### •

9.5 9.6 10 III.B. Market Alsellent 083001 Is this relatively low efficiency limit due to technical or market factors? Howshould the Department considerthese factors in this rulemaking?

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