Emerging Challenges 

and Opportunities 

for EPA

A Report from the 

National Advisory Council for

Environmental Policy and

Technology (NACEPT)

September 2002

THE ENVIRONMENTAL FUTURE

EPA NACEPT Pub Final 11/15/02 11:50 PM Page 1
NOTICE

This report was produced by the National Advisory Council for Environmental Policy and

Technology (NACEPT), an independent federal advisory committee providing extramural policy

advice to the Administrator of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). NACEPT provides

balanced and expert assessments of policy matters related to the environmental programs of the

United States. Its operation is supported by the EPA. 

The Council consulted with many EPA offices while developing this report. The contents of this

report and its recommendations do not necessarily represent the views and policies of EPA, nor of

other federal government agencies, nor does the mention of trade names, companies, or commercial

products constitute a recommendation or endorsement for use.

EPA 100-R-02-001 

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

Office of the Administrator

Office of Cooperative Environmental Management

http://www.epa.gov/ocem

September 2002

EPA NACEPT Pub Final 11/15/02 11:50 PM Page 2
Letter to the Administrator

September 19, 2002

The Honorable Christine Todd Whitman

Administrator 

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency 

1200 Pennsylvania Avenue, NW

Washington, DC 20460 

Dear Governor Whitman: 

The National Advisory Council for Environmental Policy and Technology

(NACEPT) is pleased to present to you our most recent report, The Environmental Future:

Emerging Challenges and Opportunities for EPA. This report reflects the evolving strategic

role that EPA envisioned for the Council in March 2000. 

Policymakers too seldom have the opportunity to contemplate long-term or

emerging environmental challenges. Futures analysis, the art and science of anticipating

nascent environmental issues, can facilitate EPA’s proactive planning to prevent potential

problems rather than responding after the fact. This report reviews EPA’s current futures

analysis capability and recommends that more be done to support environmental

foresight programs. In addition, the report offers a framework to analyze the

environmental implications of trends in world population and demographics, natural

resources, science and technology, information management and access, economics and

commerce, and politics and social evolution. The report concludes with general and

specific recommendations for how EPA can best address these changing conditions. 

The unthinkable events of the past year remind us that, along with securing our

borders, our nation needs to secure its natural resources and environmental legacy.

Concerted efforts to improve environmental foresight will help EPA secure the nation’s

vital resources and help EPA remain a global leader in applying innovative and effective

solutions to complex environmental problems. 

NACEPT appreciates this opportunity to advise the EPA and looks forward to a

response from you and the program offices affected by these recommendations. The

Council also looks forward to an ongoing dialogue with EPA as it continues its role as a

strategic and visionary counselor.

Sincerely, 

Dorothy Bowers, Chair

National Advisory Council for

Environmental Policy and Technology 

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

Page

NACEPT Members i

Acknowledgments iv

Executive Summary vi

SECTION I. Introduction 1

SECTION II. Improving EPA’s Environmental Foresight 5

SECTION III. Emerging Challenges and Opportunities 9

World Population and Demographics 11

Natural Resources 15

Energy 16

Water 20

Biodiversity, Land and Food 24

Air 29

Science and Technology 33

Information Management and Access 39

Economics and Commerce 45

Politics and Social Evolution 51

SECTION IV. Conclusions 57

SECTION V. Summary of Recommendations 59

Attachment A Charge to NACEPT 67

Attachment B Endnotes 69

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i

Dr. Carlos H. Arce*

President

NuStats Research & Consulting

Austin, TX

Mr. Gary W. Ballesteros*

Assistant General Counsel

for Environmental Affairs

Rockwell International Corp.

Milwaukee, WI

Dr. D. Randall Brandt

Senior Vice President, Integrated Services

Burke, Inc.

Cincinnati, OH

Dr. Tom Davies

Senior Vice-President

Current Analysis, Inc.

Sterling, VA

Ms. Kirby A. Dyess

Vice-President/Director of Intel Capital

Intel Corporation

Hillsboro, OR

Mr. Mark Greenwood

Ropes & Gray

Washington, DC

Mr. Richard J. Guimond

Vice-President and Corporate Director

Environment, Health, & Safety

Motorola, Inc.

Schaumburg, IL

Ms. Janet Hall

Director, Publishing Systems

America Online, Inc.

Dulles, VA

Mr. Grover Glenn Hankins*

Professor of Law

Director of the Environmental Justice Clinic

Thurgood Marshall School of Law

Texas Southern University

Houston, TX

Dr. Frederick B. Henderson, III*

HENDCO Services

Nathrop, CO

Ms. Linda Hixon*

Workgroup Chair

Executive Director

North Chickamauga Creek Conservancy

Chattanooga, TN

Mr. Charles Jones*

Commissioner

Douglas County, Kansas

Lawrence, KS

Dr. Charles C. Kidd, Sr.

President, York College

The City University of New York

Jamaica, NY

Mr. James L. Ledbetter

Executive Vice-President

Law Engineering and Environmental Services, Inc.

Kennesaw, GA

Mr. David Marsh*

Chairman

Marsh Plating Corporation

Ypsilanti, MI

Mr. Kevin Mills*

Senior Attorney/Director

Pollution Prevention Alliance

Environmental Defense

Washington, DC

Mr. Robert L. Rhodes, Jr.

NACEPT Chair Emeritus (1997–2001)

Deputy Managing Partner

Holland & Knight, LLP

Washington, DC

Dr. Marc J. Rogoff

Vice President

HDR Engineering

Tampa, FL

Mr. Bernard D. Rostker

Senior Associate

RAND Corporation

Arlington, VA

NACEPT Members

Ms. Dorothy P. Bowers

NACEPT Chair

Merck & Company, Inc.

Matawan, NJ

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ii

Ms. Wilma Subra*

Technical Advisor

Louisiana Environmental Action Network

New Iberia, LA

Dr. Joseph Sullivan

Professor

Dept. of Chemical Engineering

Virginia Polytechnic Institute and

State University

Blacksburg, VA

Mr. Richard Sustich*

Assistant Director of Research and Development

Metropolitan Water Reclamation District

of Greater Chicago

Chicago, IL

Dr. Valerie Petit Wilson*

Deputy Director

Tulane/Xavier

Center for Bio-Environmental Research

Clinical Associate Professor

Environmental Health Services

School of Public Health

Tulane University Health Sciences Center

New Orleans, LA

Ms. Patricia K. Wood

Manager

Federal Regulatory Affairs

Georgia-Pacific Corporation

Washington, DC

EPA STAFF MANAGERS

Ms. Sonia Altieri*

Designated Federal Officer

NACEPT Emerging Trends & Issues Workgroup

Office of Cooperative Environmental Management

Office of the Administrator

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

Washington, DC

Mr. Peter G. Redmond, Jr.

NACEPT Designated Federal Officer

Office of Cooperative Environmental Management

Office of the Administrator

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

Washington, DC

Mr. Mark Joyce

Senior Policy Advisor

Office of Cooperative Environmental Management

Office of the Administrator

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

Washington, DC

NACEPT Members

CONTRACT SUPPORT

Mr. Robert Olson, Ph.C.

Futures Analysis Consultant

Research Director

Institute for Alternative Futures

Alexandria, VA

* Emerging Trends and Issues Workgroup Member

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iv

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

We wish to acknowledge the many individuals who generously contributed their

time, talent, and expertise in developing this report. 

First, the National Advisory Council for Environmental Policy and Technology

(NACEPT) is deeply indebted to the tireless efforts of the Emerging Trends and Issues

Workgroup members who devoted countless hours to meetings, teleconferences, and

revisions of this report. The Workgroup displayed a remarkable esprit de corps and

commitment to the work. We express our deep gratitude and appreciation to Linda

Hixon for chairing the Workgroup, and Richard Sustich for his leading role in shaping

and completing the report. 

We wish to thank the EPA program offices that supported this work, with special

recognition to Anita Street and Michael Brody from the Office of the Chief Financial

Officer (OCFO), who generously shared their resources, expertise and enthusiasm.

Through OCFO, NACEPT was able to tap into the expertise of Robert Olson, a futurist

and Research Director from the Institute for Alternative Futures, who helped us frame our

ideas and articulate our vision. Special thanks also to Renelle Rae of the Office of Air and

Radiation (OAR) who coordinated and facilitated the GroupWare exercise, and to Pasky

Pascual of the Office of Research and Development (ORD), who provided invaluable

expertise and creative ideas for collaboration between EPA and NACEPT. 

A note of gratitude to the EPA staff who provided comments on the report,

including Ed Bender, Michael Binder, Dennis Cunningham, Amy Haseltine, John

Kargul, John Mason, John Moses, Pasky Pascual, Renelle Rae, Jeremy Schreifels, Patricia

Scott, Ravi Srivastava, Doreen Sterling, Anita Street, Bryan-Wood Thomas, Chris Tirpak,

and Jim Vickery. We also wish to thank members of the public for their input. In

particular, Peter Rzeszotarski (Army Environmental Policy Institute), Troy Seidle (People

for Ethical Treatment of Animals), and Mike Paque (Ground Water Protection Council).

Their trenchant comments simultaneously broadened our horizon and focused our

debate, and, in the end, strengthened the report and recommendations. Thanks, also, to

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Andy Schwartz, from Industrial Economics, Inc., for his support organizing and

incorporating the many comments. 

Finally, we are indebted to Gordon Schisler, the Acting Director of the Office of

Cooperative Environmental Management (OCEM) and his staff at EPA. This report

would not have been possible without the unflagging efforts of Sonia Altieri, the

Designated Federal Officer for the Emerging Trends and Issues Workgroup. Sonia’s

persistence, creativity and passion toward her work spurred on the Workgroup, even in its

most trying hours. A heartfelt thanks, also, goes to Peter Redmond, the NACEPT

Designated Federal Officer who initially facilitated Workgroup meetings, but later

oversaw the work of the Council. Peter and Sonia both played critical roles in the final

editing and production of this report and we thank them for their extraordinary efforts.

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vi

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Our nation’s approach to environmental protection has been largely reactive.

Environmental laws, institutions and regulations have been created in response to existing

environmental and public health threats. Policymakers rarely have the opportunity to

contemplate long-term or emerging environmental challenges. Futures analysis, the art

and science of anticipating nascent environmental issues, encourages proactive planning

to prevent potential problems, rather than responding after the fact. 

The National Advisory Council for Environmental Policy and Technology

(NACEPT) was asked by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)

Administrator to play a more strategic and visionary advisory role in March of 2000. In

response, NACEPT agreed to review and recommend environmental foresight methods,

and to identify emerging trends and issues relevant to EPA in the next five to ten years.

Understanding the environmental consequences of future social, economic and

technological changes can help EPA make better-informed and more strategic decisions.

This report recommends a comprehensive, continuous and institutional futures scanning

process to identify emerging trends and issues. It also identifies emerging opportunities

for EPA and describes the futures analysis framework developed by NACEPT to explore

beyond the horizon.

NACEPT recommends that the Administrator of EPA and her senior leadership

champion the use of environmental foresight methods. While some EPA offices have

made notable progress, more can be done to institutionalize futures analysis into Agencywide strategic planning processes. This will require the dedication of staff and resources

to make environmental foresight an EPA priority. This report identifies several

overarching proposals to improve EPA’s ability to anticipate and address emerging

environmental challenges. These include the following:

◆ Create an ongoing scanning process that involves all major parts of EPA.

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◆ Support the ongoing work of EPA’s Futures Network and provide

additional training on environmental scanning, scenario development, and

modeling. 

◆ Incorporate futures analysis into EPA’s strategic planning. Integrate

scanning, scenarios, and other foresight methodologies into the formal

planning process.

In identifying the most significant emerging challenges and opportunities for

EPA, NACEPT created a foresight framework which divides human activities into six

broad themes for analysis. These themes include: World Population and Demographics,

Natural Resources, Science and Technology, Information Management and Access,

Economics and Commerce, and Politics and Social Evolution. The report analyzes each

of these themes and provides an overview of emerging developments entitled Forecast and

Context. It also describes the Desired State of the future and the Opportunities for EPA to

move forward. The opportunities are formal recommendations for the EPA

Administrator and the Agency’s senior leadership. 

This report divides Opportunities for EPA into immediate, mid-term and longterm categories. A summary of the recommendations can be found on page 59 of this

report. The NACEPT Council recognizes that this long list of recommendations

represents a snapshot of emerging issues for EPA to proactively and strategically address.

NACEPT looks forward to continuing its work with the Administrator and the EPA

program offices to respond to these recommendations.

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1

The Environmental Future:

Emerging Challenges and Opportunities

for EPA

A Report of the

National Advisory Council for 

Environmental Policy and Technology

SECTION I. 

INTRODUCTION

In March 2000, the Administrator of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

(EPA) asked the National Advisory Council for Environmental Policy and Technology

(NACEPT) to play a more strategic and visionary role in advising EPA. In its efforts to

incorporate this new responsibility, NACEPT embarked on a journey that explored

strategic planning tools with a focus on environmental foresight. Specifically, NACEPT

agreed to recommend a process to identify emerging trends and to prepare its own

assessment of these challenges and their implications for EPA.

NACEPT is a federal advisory committee that counsels the EPA Administrator on

a broad range of domestic and international environmental policy, technology, and

management issues. The Council is a balanced panel of outside experts who represent

diverse interests from academia, non-governmental organizations (NGOs), business,

industry, state, tribal and local governments. To address the Administrator’s charge, a

subset of the Council organized as the Emerging Trends and Issues Workgroup.

Workgroup members met with leading futurists, consulted with EPA program offices,

reviewed futures analysis processes and developed this report through numerous meetings

and conference calls. The Workgroup periodically reported its progress to the full

Council and submitted draft recommendations for discussion and modification. This

final report is the Council’s response to the Administrator’s request.

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Our Environmental Security

No one saw it coming and no one predicted the horror. The events of September

11, 2001 and the subsequent war on terrorism have turned the nation’s focus to homeland

security and the work of disabling international terrorist organizations. These events have

permanently changed the way America does business and should serve as a clarion call for

Americans concerned with protecting our natural resources and our environmental legacy.

If we learned one thing from those events, it is the value of looking ahead – a concerted

effort at improving environmental foresight can help EPA secure the nation’s vital

resources.

Like many federal agencies, EPA will play a critical role in our nation’s war on

terrorism. One important role EPA can play involves the increased use of environmental

foresight. EPA should continue to assess the state of our nation’s environment, to research

and identify environmental stressors, and to implement a national strategy to address

those stressors. But to effectively carry out this function, EPA will need to look

increasingly farther into the future to anticipate challenges and to identify opportunities

for environmental improvement and security. This future visioning should be a rational,

ongoing “aiming of the radar.” The purpose of this report is to share the results and

recommendations from NACEPT’s own first scan of the radar.

Environmental Surprise and Foresight

Ecologist C.S. Holling coined the term “environmental surprise” to refer to

environmental phenomena in which reality departs qualitatively from expectations.

Recent history is replete with examples of these unanticipated environmental events: the

depletion of the ozone layer by chlorofluorocarbons; the devastating biological effects of

DDT, thalidomide, and other chemicals; the nuclear disaster at Chernobyl and the

chemical catastrophe at Bhopal; and the emergence of AIDS and other lethal viruses.

2

SECTION I INTRODUCTION

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3

In the past, environmental laws, institutions and regulations were created in

response to existing environmental and public health threats. Future environmental

protection efforts must seek to anticipate emerging threats. Indeed, more environmental

surprises lie ahead as human numbers grow, economic output expands, globalization and

urbanization continue, and new technologies emerge. Some events will be inherently

unpredictable, but there are many others that can be anticipated and assessed, and their

negative effects mitigated or forestalled.

In its 1995 report, Beyond the Horizon, the EPA Science Advisory Board (SAB)

challenged EPA “to begin to anticipate future environmental problems, and then take

steps to avoid them, not just respond to them after the fact.” While EPA has not fully

addressed the SAB’s challenge, there has been some notable progress. Innovative

environmental foresight efforts are underway in the Office of the Chief Financial Officer

(OCFO), the Office of Radiation and Indoor Air (ORIA), the Office of Research and

Development (ORD), the Office of International Affairs (OIA), the Office of Prevention,

Pesticides, and Toxic Substances (OPPTS), and other units within EPA. Currently, the

Managing for Results Steering Group, led by OCFO, is examining ways to integrate

futures analysis into strategic planning. Also, OCFO established a Futures Network, a

group of EPA staff and managers who have strategic planning responsibilities or interest

in futures analysis. In 2001, OCFO twice sponsored the Federal Futures Practitioners

Roundtable, a forum for federal agency foresight and futures professionals. Still, these

efforts have yet to result in significant changes to Agency-wide strategic planning and

priority setting.

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SECTION II. 

IMPROVING EPA’S 

ENVIRONMENTAL FORESIGHT

In its charge, the National Advisory Council for Environmental Policy and

Technology (NACEPT) was asked to recommend a process to enhance EPA’s ability to

identify emerging trends and issues. To be effective, this process must be comprehensive,

continuous, and institutional. 

Comprehensive means exploring all drivers and trends that can impact EPA’s

mission, not just selected areas of concern. Like a good radar system, it must continually

scan the horizon in all directions. The organization of “themes” detailed below is one

framework for a comprehensive radar.

Continuous means a process that is more than a single snapshot; it should be an

ongoing, long-term process. The trends and issues identified in this document must be

viewed as exemplary, and EPA should understand that these may be constantly changing

or shifting.

Finally, by institutional, we mean that the process must be made a long-term

activity across EPA. This will require the dedication of staff and resources to monitor

future trends and present analyses to senior leadership on a frequent basis. Most

importantly, the Administrator and the Agency must prioritize environmental foresight

and futures analysis to make it a reality.

Futures analysis anticipates environmental issues and encourages proactive

planning to avoid problems, rather than after the fact responses. To implement a futures

process, EPA should utilize all the major elements of sound futures analysis. It must

include such methodological elements as: literature scanning, Delphi expert panels,

frequent extraction and prioritization of issues, and analysis and selection of issues

5

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relevant to EPA’s mission. NACEPT can and should serve as a valuable resource for

several of the activities in this process. However, EPA needs to dedicate internal resources

to make the process fully effective.

In performing the tasks that led to this report, NACEPT followed a regimen that

included some of the core methods for sound futurist work. The Emerging Trends and

Issues Workgroup assigned individual members with particular expertise the task of

identifying major areas that impact EPA’s mission. Brainstorming sessions on thematic,

organizational, and conceptual structures of issues followed the initial generation of ideas.

The Workgroup engaged in a consensus-building exercise with the use of Groupware

software – this is akin to Delphi techniques for consensus building – to establish relevance

of the issues and trends. In the future, if NACEPT advises an EPA “futurist unit,” a more

formal process for identifying trends and consequences will need to be adopted. The

Workgroup’s effort, to date, is a good start.

The Workgroup identified several ways of improving EPA’s ability to anticipate

and address emerging environmental problems. They include:

◆ Create and provide resources for an ongoing scanning process that

involves all major parts of EPA and make the findings available. 

◆ Support the ongoing work of the EPA Futures Network, which includes

participants from regional and headquarters offices, who have strategic

planning responsibilities or interest in environmental foresight.

◆ Continue the work done by the Futures Network to provide training in

methods of environmental scanning, scenario development, modeling,

and other methodologies for environmental foresight. 

◆ Encourage environmental foresight efforts in offices and programs

throughout EPA, championed by the Administrator and EPA’s senior

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SECTION II IMPROVING EPA’S ENVIRONMENTAL FORESIGHT

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leadership. Develop standard procedures for sharing and integrating the

findings of these efforts, but avoid forcing agreement on any single image

of the future. 

◆ Incorporate futures analysis into strategic planning. Scanning, scenarios,

and other foresight methodologies need to be integrated into the formal

planning process. The EPA strategic plan is a major step forward, but it

still lacks a forward-thinking approach. It helps EPA prioritize the

problems of today, but gives little or no attention to what tomorrow’s

problems will be and how they might be prevented or mitigated by the

Agency. Environmental foresight tools can help EPA discover new

technologies to support a problem-preventing approach. 

◆ Evaluate current programs and environmental protection activities that

could provide warning – or be positioned to avoid the occurrence or

mitigate the impact – of unlikely but catastrophic events such as: terrorist

attacks, disease epidemics, loss of a keystone species, or unexpected

consequences of technological advances, etc.

◆ Develop a workforce better able to assess emerging challenges and

equipped with skills and competencies that will be needed in the future.

EPA is already moving in the direction of hiring people with multiple

points of expertise, rather than specialists in a narrow field. It needs to

continue moving in this direction and to give even more attention to

hiring and promoting people with a wide breadth of knowledge and crossdiscipline experience. Better environmental foresight requires analysts

and managers who are able to take a broad cross-media perspective and see

connections across problem domains and disciplines.

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◆ Regularly sample the opinions of a broad range of knowledgeable outside

experts to enhance cross-fertilization of ideas. Reach out to different

sectors not typically involved in regulation activities, such as those

involved in research and development on leading-edge technologies and

industrial processes.

◆ Support more work at the edges (and across edges) of conceptual and

problem areas. Encourage the airing – and rigorous evaluation – of

unconventional and “outlier” views.

◆ Continuously strive to make management systems more adaptive.

Organizational theory suggests that internal openness, active links to a

wide range of outside parties and stakeholders, a culture that rewards

continuous learning, and structural flexibility, make organizations better

able to deal with surprise. 

◆ Improve response capabilities for early warning, leadership alerting, and

rapid mobilization to deal with emerging developments that cannot be

anticipated.

These recommendations are designed to help EPA develop more comprehensive,

continuous and institutional environmental foresight. The next section of this report will

detail the recommendations that NACEPT developed after completing its own

environmental foresight process.

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SECTION II IMPROVING EPA’S ENVIRONMENTAL FORESIGHT

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SECTION III. 

EMERGING CHALLENGES 

AND OPPORTUNITIES

In developing its own views of the most important emerging challenges and

opportunities for the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the National

Advisory Council for Environmental Policy and Technology (NACEPT) strove to achieve

a comprehensive and global perspective. To ensure that its own scanning process was

comprehensive, NACEPT divided human activities into six broad themes for analysis: 

World Population and Demographics

Natural Resources

Science and Technology 

Information Management and Access

Economics and Commerce

Politics and Social Evolution

The bulk of this report deals with an analysis of each of these themes, including:

an overview of emerging developments entitled Forecast and Context, a description of

the Desired State that NACEPT believes is facilitative of best environmental

management and a sustainable future, and the Opportunities that exist for EPA to help

move toward this desired state. The opportunities are formal recommendations put

forward by the NACEPT Council for consideration by the Administrator and EPA’s

leadership. The Summary of Recommendations section of the report categorizes these

recommendations by EPA’s ability to implement them in the short, medium and long

term.

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THE ENVIRONMENTAL FUTURE: EMERGING CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR EPA SECTION III

11

WORLD POPULATION AND DEMOGRAPHICS

Forecast and Context 

The same underlying driving forces impact all global environmental issues:

population, level of consumption, and choice of technologies. While managing

population growth is not part of EPA’s mandate, its activities, both domestic and

international, can have a catalytic impact on population dynamics, economic activity and

consumer behavior, and can contribute to significant reductions in both total global and

per capita environmental impacts.

The rate of world population growth has declined from a peak of 2.1 percent per

year in the early 1960’s to 1.3 percent today.1 Even at this reduced rate, total global

population size will continue to increase substantially for several decades because the

growth is occurring from such a large base. Between now and the year 2025, population

is likely to increase as much as it did from the beginning of human history to World War

II.2 By then, the world is expected to have nearly 8 billion people. Almost all of this

growth will occur in developing nations in Asia, Africa and Latin America, with most of

the new population living in urban areas. The global urban population is projected to

increase from 2.6 billion in 1995 to over 4.5 billion in 2025.3

Rapid population growth, unprecedented rates of urbanization, and the

proliferation of megacities with populations exceeding 10 million will challenge the

management capabilities of many developing nations. Growth will put enormous

pressures on water supplies, agricultural soils, forests, and other renewable resources.

While the average age of populations in the Third World is falling, longer life spans in

much of the Western industrialized world are leading to an aging population and

increased demands on natural resources.

Problems of water and air pollution, and disposal of sewage and solid wastes, will

inevitably be severe in rapidly expanding urban agglomerations. Environmental

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conditions, in turn, influence health. Poor environmental quality is already estimated to

be directly responsible for about 25 percent of all preventable ill health in the world today,

with diarrhea and acute respiratory infections heading the list.4

The problems are not restricted to areas beyond our borders. For example,

Southeast Florida, near the sensitive Everglades ecosystem, is already showing

environmental stress associated with rapidly expanding urban areas. The University of

Florida estimates that the populations of Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach Counties

will increase by more than 2 million from the current levels of approximately 5 million.

One challenge related to population growth stands out from all others: fostering

sustainable development at the global level, while fostering needed economic expansion in the

world’s poorer nations. There is now widespread agreement that sustainable development

is the key to stabilizing population growth. Since the 1994 International Conference on

Population and Development in Cairo, a global consensus has emerged that the best

strategy for reducing fertility rates is to empower women, expand economic opportunity,

reduce poverty, and increase the availability of education and health care.

Sustainable development is also essential for reducing social unrest and the danger

of international terrorism. No mixture of conditions could be more combustible than

rapidly expanding numbers of restless young people living in poverty without opportunities

for improvement. Constant exposure to global media images of affluent lifestyles and

ideologies that preach hatred against America increase their hopelessness and anger.

Development is essential, but development along the pattern of the past is

impossible. If billions more people try to move toward U.S. per capita rates of fossil fuel

consumption, resource use, and waste generation, it would be environmentally disastrous

and fundamentally unsustainable. As a result, the United States has a special responsibility

to help create a new model for development – one with minimal environmental impacts.

As a world leader and the largest consumer of the world’s resources, the United States has

the capacity and responsibility to help other nations protect the environment. Pioneering

new approaches to sustainable development and sharing new environmental technology

may well be our greatest contributions toward the future.

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SECTION III WORLD POPULATION AND DEMOGRAPHICS

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Desired State 

◆ Global and regional populations are stabilized at levels that allow us to live

within our global means without undermining the ecological foundations

on which our economies are built.

◆ Poor nations and disenfranchised populations within nations have

equitable access to resources needed for rapid development, job creation,

and investment in education and health care.

◆ Environmental impacts per unit of Gross National Product (GNP) are

reduced sharply by environmentally superior technologies and

development strategies that simultaneously meet basic human needs and

protect the environment.

Opportunities for EPA 

Elevate EPA’s International Role. To do so effectively, EPA needs to

have the ability to provide credible information on the long-term implications of

population growth, nationally, as well as internationally. EPA should select and analyze

population data to help decision-makers understand the impacts.

Raise Awareness of the Importance of Sustainable

Development. When interacting with other parts of the federal government, raise

awareness of the importance of achieving rapid, sustainable development in poor nations

with high population growth rates. To the greatest extent possible, the United States must

lead by example, encouraging sustainable development at home.

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Support Global Sustainable Development Networks. In

cooperation with the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and other

international organizations, provide support for global networks of Third World

development experts, environmental protection officials, urban planners, and

environmentalists.

Facilitate Export of Environmentally Superior Technologies.

Help stimulate and organize inter-governmental efforts to export environmentally

superior technologies and environmental management methods that reduce impacts of

population growth. Revitalize the Environmental Trade Work Group (ETWG),

composed of 19 agency heads, which was established to organize more effective trade

promotion in exporting environmental technologies. The ETWG is co-chaired by EPA

and the Department of Commerce and is a subgroup of the Trade Promotion

Coordination Committee (TPCC).

Build Relationships with Developing Countries. EPA offices

currently work with sister areas in different parts of the world. Explore what would be

needed to target this coverage more effectively. Establish an “Envirocorps” – an

environmental Peace Corps – where citizens with professional experience in

environmental protection and different areas of environmental technology are trained and

paid to work in developing nations. EPA and the Peace Corps can collaborate more

closely on international environmental projects.

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NATURAL RESOURCES 

Environmental issues arise primarily around the use of natural resources,

including energy, water, land, food, and wildlife. The principles for managing natural

resources in a sustainable way are similar across all these areas. Key principles include:

Efficiency. Decrease environmental impacts per unit of gross national product (GNP)

by using natural resources more efficiently. Increasing resource efficiency is virtually

synonymous with cutting waste because pollution represents wasted materials being

released into the environment.

Industrial Ecology. Using nature to model our technical systems, close the loops of

material flows by reusing or reconfiguring the material outputs of each process into inputs

for other purposes.

Appropriate Use of Renewable Resources. With the exception of energy,

which is constantly supplanted by solar radiation, all terrestrial natural resource systems

are closed. These systems have no external sources to replenish raw material supplies.

Emphasize the use of renewable resources that nature will continue to provide and

replenish indefinitely. Keep renewable resource use at, or below, the maximum

sustainable yield to maintain the stock from which the flow of resources derives.

Social Well-Being. In making decisions about sources of energy, water supplies,

food, and other important issues, strive to understand what approach will most likely

improve the social well-being of everyone, especially those who have suffered injustices,

poverty, and other barriers to achieving their potential.

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Sustainable Development. Use natural resources in a way that meets today’s

needs without degrading those resources and making it difficult for future generations to

meet their needs. Find solutions to natural resource issues that are simultaneously

beneficial for economic development, the environment, and social well-being. Only

solutions that work on all three levels will lead to the kind of future we want to create.

NATURAL RESOURCES – ENERGY

Forecast and Context

The world is not facing an energy supply crisis, but rather an energy management

problem. The United States alone has coal reserves that could last for centuries and, more

importantly, abundant solar radiation will be available for billions of years. The primary

challenge today is energy management: to reduce the carbon intensity of the energy

economy and to facilitate the conversion to renewable sources and hydrogen storage.

Decarbonization is necessary to limit environmental impacts, from multi-pollutant air

emissions to global climate change.5 The key barrier to decarbonization is not economic

or technological – it is the lingering misconception that carbon emission limits lead to a

reduction in economic growth. The evidence is conclusive that carbon and economic

output can be decoupled.6

Increasing energy efficiency is the fastest and cheapest decarbonization strategy.

In the United States, producing one unit of gross domestic product (GDP) requires less

than one-fifth as much energy as it did two centuries ago.7 Just between 1973 and 1986,

increasing energy efficiency made it possible for the GDP to grow by 35 percent with zero

growth in energy consumption.8 Thanks to advancing technology, much larger – and

highly profitable – opportunities are available for increasing efficiency further.

Changing energy sources constitutes the other principal decarbonization strategy.

Industrial nations have already gone through three historic waves of decarbonization.

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Coal released one-fifth to one-tenth of the carbon per unit of energy of the wood it

displaced as the dominant fossil fuel.9 By the 1960’s, a lower carbon and more portable

fossil fuel, oil, displaced coal as the dominant energy source, marking the second wave of

decarbonization.10 Now, natural gas, the cleanest fossil fuel, whose combustion releases

the least carbon dioxide, is ascending toward a dominant role. Decarbonization is

arguably the most fundamental trend in the evolution of the energy system.11

Now a fourth wave of decarbonization may be appearing on the horizon with the

emergence of hydrogen-based energy technologies, such as fuel cells. Initially derived

from natural gas, and possibly from ultra-clean coal technology, hydrogen will eventually

be produced by splitting water into hydrogen and oxygen using renewable energy.

Moving toward a hydrogen economy would tend to take the energy system away from

large scale generating technologies toward virtual utilities composed of networks of

microturbines, solar cells, fuel cells, and other micropower technologies. This

environmentally benign image of the energy future is being advocated by leaders of some

of the world’s largest energy companies, such as Royal Dutch Shell, which has created

Shell Hydrogen, and BP, which now stands for “Beyond Petroleum.”

Desired State

◆ Energy is used with high efficiency in buildings, transportation, industry

and consumer products.

◆ Major reductions are achieved in the amount of waste (pollution) going

into the environment from the production and consumption of energy.

◆ Decarbonization continues through increasing energy efficiency and

changing energy sources.

◆ Renewable energy is ultimately the primary energy source, forming the

basis for a completely carbon-free, renewable hydrogen economy.

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◆ Energy choices are approached as choices about how to make the world

work for everyone over the long term – economically, environmentally,

and socially.

Opportunities for EPA

Encourage Total Accounting of Energy Technologies. Foster

objective, rigorous comparative analyses of the full range of costs and benefits associated

with expanding the use of different energy technologies. Bring energy efficiency

improvements into the comparative analyses, along with the full range of energy supply

options. The analyses should look at cradle-to-grave and intergenerational costs and

benefits, including impacts on natural systems, human health, and social well-being. The

assessments should consider the implications different options would have if they were

adopted, not only in the United States, but also by developing nations. Some aspects of

this activity can appropriately be done within EPA. Much of it would be best done in

cooperative relationships with other agencies and leading research institutions.

Utilize the Clean Air Act State Implementation Plans (SIPs)

Process to Spur Investment in Renewables and Energy Efficiency.

Work in partnership with the Department of Energy (DOE) to aggressively break through

the barriers that inhibit full crediting of energy efficiency and renewable energy

technologies in SIPs. If EPA fully credits energy efficiency and renewable energy

programs in SIPs, more capital would be channeled into technologies that can

decarbonize the energy system over the long run, as well as produce immediate reductions

in a wide variety of air emissions.

Partner with the DOE on the New Freedom Car Project. The

administration recently announced a new program to develop and promote hydrogen fuel

cell development. The Freedom Car program hopes to have hydrogen fuel cell vehicles

on the road within the next ten years.

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Support Innovative Research on Sequestering Carbon

Dioxide. A number of innovative concepts for using fossil fuels with minimum

climatic harm have yet to receive serious attention. For example, academic researchers

have suggested the possibility of reforming natural gas into hydrogen at the wellhead and

re-injecting the carbon dioxide produced in this process into the geological formation

from which the gas was taken. EPA should scan for other innovative sequestration

concepts and ensure that they receive attention in other agencies and the private sector.

Expand the Energy Star Program. Expand the highly successful and

cost-effective Energy Star program to other sectors, such as grocery stores and the health

care industry. Partner with DOE to develop energy efficiency programs relevant to these

new sectors.

Establish a Green Vehicle Labeling Program. The concept of green

labeling for vehicles has been developed and discussed in the Green Vehicle Guide (EPA,

Mobile Sources). Putting this concept into practice would give consumers better

information on vehicle fuel efficiency, as well as new information on emissions,

manufacturing toxins, etc. 

Promote Market-Oriented Measures for Reducing Global

Warming. Within the executive branch and in interactions with Congress, promote

the adoption of market-oriented policy measures that reduce global warming by

increasing energy efficiency.

Encourage Research on Hydrogen as an Energy Carrier.

Encourage research and development on hydrogen as an energy carrier and energy storage

medium. Ensure that environmental issues related to hydrogen are identified at the front

end, so that potential problems are avoided and an appropriate federal regulatory role is

developed (e.g., Design for Environment in fuel cell production, fuel cell recycling and

disposal, and pipeline issues).

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Use Publicly Owned Sewage Plants to Demonstrate

Hydrogen Technologies. Create demonstration projects with major methane

sources, such as publicly owned wastewater treatment plants (sewage plants), to

demonstrate methane-to-hydrogen conversion and the use of hydrogen technologies.

Assess regulatory and economic constraints that need to be overcome. Currently, every

wastewater treatment plant generates considerable quantities of methane, a major

greenhouse gas. Many use this methane for heating digestion process units during winter

months, but 80 percent or more may be flared off in summer. Converting methane to

hydrogen would allow these plants to generate a substantial amount of their own

electricity on-site year-round.

NATURAL RESOURCES – WATER 

Forecast and Context

Water is the world’s most important natural resource. It is essential for human

and ecosystem health and for the production of all ecosystem goods and services. It is the

primary input to agriculture and the most widely used resource in industrial processes. It

has aesthetic, cultural and recreational value. It is also the natural resource where the most

severe environmental problems occur the soonest.

Today, 2.3 billion people live in water-stressed countries where there are growing

conflicts between different users of water.12 Of this group, 1.7 billion live in areas of real

water scarcity, where drought and water diversions for agriculture and industry limit the

amount of water available to meet people’s basic needs.13 In the quest for more water,

many of the major aquifers around the world are being drained at rates that exceed their

natural recharge rates. By 2025, an estimated 2.7 billion people will live in areas

experiencing severe water scarcity, creating a potential for regional conflicts over water

rights in the Middle East, sub-Saharan Africa, and large parts of Asia.14 Even where water

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is not scarce, it is often contaminated. Globally, only about 10 percent of all wastewater

is treated before it enters rivers and other bodies of water.15 On every continent,

groundwater, as well as surface water, is being contaminated and rising sea levels from

global warming threaten further contamination. As populations and economies grow,

water use on the pattern of the past will prove unsustainable and “water efficiency” will

become as important a concept as energy efficiency.

The United States, as a whole, does not yet face widespread, serious water shortage

problems. However, the warning signs are clear: the massive Ogallala aquifer has been

severely depleted, Great Lakes water elevations are at their lowest levels in decades, the

California agricultural economy consumes far more water for irrigation purposes than can

be sustained over the long term, and rapid urbanization of rural and previously

undeveloped regions (e.g., Las Vegas) is proceeding without consideration of water supply

concerns. Disruptions in the hydrological cycle due to global warming or other

meteorological factors may make drought conditions more common over the decades

ahead, and the increased draw down of aquifers may limit development in some areas, and

force major agricultural management changes in others. Moreover, the draw down of

deep aquifers brings water with higher salt concentrations to the surface, potentially

exposing croplands to dust-bowl vulnerabilities. Major water management issues already

impacting the United States include maintaining and improving the wastewater

infrastructure to avoid further water contamination. 

Disputes over water management are taking place in the arid Southwest and

elsewhere in the United States. Georgia, Alabama and Florida have been fighting for years

over two river systems that give life to the Southeast. In 1997, they decided to form an

interstate compact to develop an agreement on how the rivers should be used. But after

three years, five extensions and at least $20 million, there’s no agreement in sight.

Much of the nation’s infrastructure for drinking water, wastewater, and

stormwater is aging. Increased demand on public water systems, caused by a growing

population, will make it difficult to maintain potable water quality standards. Many

system managers are not budgeting for, nor do they have sufficient access to funds, to

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make the investments in infrastructure maintenance that are likely to be necessary. In

agriculture, lack of investment in irrigation infrastructure is causing growing problems of

unnecessary water loss from canal leakage, infiltration, and salinization. New investments

are required in “precision agriculture” systems that apply only as much water (and other

inputs) as needed, when needed. Water subsidies that contribute to excessive and wasteful

use magnify expenditures needed for infrastructure.

Despite significant improvements in water quality, one-fifth of freshwater fish

stocks are still considered vulnerable or endangered because of pollution or habitat

disruption.16 Perhaps the most serious problem is groundwater contamination by

nitrates, pesticides, petrochemicals, chlorinated solvents, radioactive wastes, saltwater, and

heavy metals. Groundwater that becomes polluted tends to stay polluted for a very long

time; the average residence time for groundwater is 1,400 years, as opposed to 16 days for

river water.17

In the United States, water contamination from point sources has decreased

dramatically over the 30-year life of the Federal Water Pollution Control Act. Addressing

remaining water quality issues, such as contamination from pharmaceuticals, antibiotics,

food additives and pesticides, will require watershed-based approaches that include all

contributors: traditional point sources, as well as non-point sources, including agriculture,

silviculture, airborne deposition, and stormwater runoff. Innovations will be needed in

environmentally advanced agriculture, closed-loop production and consumption systems,

and green chemistry to eliminate the use of persistent toxic chemicals.

Desired State

◆ There is sufficient usable water to meet population needs in the United

States and around the world.

◆ Technologies for achieving higher water efficiency are universally adopted

in agriculture, industry and residential use.

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◆ Water rights issues are fairly mediated, avoiding conflicts over access to

water.

◆ Surface water and groundwater are protected from contamination.

◆ Water is priced at its true cost to reduce wasteful use.

Opportunities for EPA

Develop a Holistic Approach to Water and the Environment.

Create a water task force with representatives from several offices in EPA, other federal

agencies, and external stakeholders to take a more holistic look at water policy and the

environment. Identify major watersheds across the country for specific improvement.

Examine a broad range of issues, from aquifer depletion and contamination to water

efficiency and the level of investment needed to maintain aging water infrastructure.

Examine potential environmental implications of major water policy options. Make

recommendations for the integration of water quality objectives at different levels into a

single coherent package. 

While there has been significant progress in adopting a more holistic approach to

managing water resources over the last decade, existing statutory authorities make it

difficult to run programs on a watershed basis. EPA’s Office of Water is working to better

integrate its authorities under the Clean Water Act and the Safe Drinking Water Act. 

Integrate Water Efficiency with Water Quality Standards.

Integrate water use efficiency and appropriate reuse into water quality standards and other

environmental regulations. A number of current regulatory programs are based on

achieving technical standards measured by concentration of pollutants per unit of water.

Increased water efficiency goals conflict with these concentration-based regulatory

standards.

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Support an Effective Market Environment to Minimize

Generating Hazardous Wastes. Sixty percent of U.S. hazardous liquid waste –

34 billion liters of solvents, heavy metals and radioactive materials – is injected into deep

groundwater around the country by means of injection wells. EPA should assess

opportunities to eliminate generating all hazardous waste through pollution

prevention/source reduction (P2) and through reprocessing/reuse; identify the technical,

regulatory and economic barriers to P2 and reuse; and encourage a market environment

in which these beneficial practices become the preferred business option.

Redouble Efforts to Effectively Include Non-Point Sources in

Water Management Programs. Enhance EPA’s capacity to monitor, model and

mitigate non-point source contributions to water contamination and overall

environmental degradation. Develop better models for estimating adverse health and

economic impacts of non-point pollution. Increase efforts to educate citizens and

policymakers about the value of non-point source mitigation and to mobilize political and

technical support for federal, state, and local efforts to address the problem.

NATURAL RESOURCES – 

BIODIVERSITY, LAND AND FOOD

Forecast and Context

Biodiversity, land and food are deeply intertwined resource issues. Habitat loss

and degradation are the leading causes of declining biodiversity, affecting 85 percent of all

threatened species.18 The leading cause of habitat loss is conversion of land for lowdensity urban development, agriculture, and forest plantations. The other leading causes

of declining biodiversity are invasive species and pollution, primarily from agricultural

runoff.

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THE ENVIRONMENTAL FUTURE: EMERGING CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR EPA SECTION III

A generation ago, some scientists looking at the loss of wetlands, rainforests, and

other biologically rich areas feared that the total number of species could be cut by 25 to

50 percent within a generation or two – the greatest decline in biodiversity since the

cataclysmic end of the age of the dinosaurs. While some field studies suggest that species

are more resilient than originally thought,19 other recent studies suggest that climate

change may pose major new threats to biodiversity. Rates of global warming may exceed

the migration capabilities of many species, and progressive shifts in climatic conditions

will cause losses of existing habitat and reductions in habitat patch size.20

Land conservation which encourages greater density in urban and suburban

development is one of the most important requirements for preserving biodiversity. 

More clustered development reduces the entire footprint of an urban population. This is

important everywhere, but especially crucial in areas like Southeastern Florida around the

sensitive Everglades ecosystem where the population is projected to increase by 1.8 million

between 2000 and 2020.21 Clustered development also maintains the recharge rate of

groundwater aquifers, which is reduced by impervious urban surfaces. Urban infill and high

density development patterns go hand-in-hand with establishing green spaces that are off

limits to development, and buying land for parks and open space to protect wildlife.

Limiting urban sprawl can also protect prime agricultural land. For example, in

California’s Central Valley, where the population is expected to triple by 2040, cropland

losses could be cut by 55 percent simply by building 15 residential units per hectare,

instead of the more typical 7 units.22 A denser urban environment also facilitates the use

of mass transit, saves money on construction and upkeep of infrastructure of many kinds,

provides lower income people easier access to jobs, and tends to promote a greater sense

of community.

The spread of exotic species of plants, animals and diseases is now second only to

habitat loss as a cause of declining biodiversity and ecological destruction. The slow

migration of species into new habitats has always been a part of nature, but the

globalization of commerce and travel has accelerated this process so drastically that it

deserves to be considered a new phenomenon in the history of life. Bioinvasion by

invasive species needs to be treated as a major new challenge, as important as regulating

the pollution of land, water and air.

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SECTION III NATURAL RESOURCES – BIODIVERSITY, LAND AND FOOD

Reducing pollution, especially the agricultural runoff from erosion, over

fertilization, and heavy use of pesticides, is the other major requirement for preserving

biodiversity. One of the greatest challenges ahead is developing an environmentally

advanced agriculture that puts together the most environmentally sound and productive

methods from many different areas including: conventional industrial agriculture,

agricultural biotechnology, precision agriculture, integrated pest management, organic

farming, and ecological engineering.

Desired State

◆ Maximum biodiversity is preserved, and biodiversity is recognized and

used as the primary indicator of “ecological health.”

◆ Land is conserved and used efficiently through urban infill, combined

with the recycling of land and increasing mass transit-oriented

development patterns (e.g., brownfields development, smart growth

initiatives, etc.).

◆ Green spaces are preserved and made off limits to development.

Infrastructure corridors are used in environmentally beneficial ways.

◆ Movements of invasive species are tracked and quickly controlled.

◆ Environmentally advanced agricultural methods are developed and widely

adopted.

◆ We are able to produce sufficient quantities of healthy foods to feed

ourselves and contribute to the world food supply. We are able to do this

without degrading the soil, polluting or overusing water supplies, or

having other negative impacts that could limit the ability of future

generations to meet their own food needs.

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Opportunities for EPA

Develop Biodiversity Indicators. Use biodiversity as a primary

indicator of ecological health. Work with the academic community and other

stakeholders to develop biodiversity indicators for different ecosystems, and utilize these

indicators in setting ecological health objectives and in developing ecosystem

management strategies.

Develop Natural Resource Damage Assessment as a

Management Tool. Employ cost accounting concepts developed for the Natural

Resource Damage Assessments (NRDA) and used in establishing Superfund liabilities for

other purposes within EPA. Use these concepts preventatively – as management tools in

environmental planning and permitting – not just for remediation after damage is done.

Expand Efforts to Control Invasive Species. Significantly expand

EPA’s efforts and coordination with other agencies to monitor and control the

introduction of non-native or invasive species. For example, explore possible joint

enforcement opportunities with the states, port authorities and the Coast Guard in

restricting point-source discharge of water ballast released by ships. Explore potential

roles related to land-based invasives, an area where EPA is now doing virtually nothing.

Play a leadership role on this issue in the National Invasive Species Council and the

Commission for Environmental Cooperation, which was created by the environmental

side accords to the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA).

Develop Natural Resource Partnerships. Continue to develop

partnerships and support roles with state Departments of Natural Resources (DNRs),

other federal agencies, tribes, local government agencies, commerce and industry, and

non-governmental organizations. EPA has not taken full advantage of opportunities to

work with these entities, but they are the organizations with the most hands-on

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responsibilities for protecting wildlife and biodiversity. Local and national non-profit

land conservation and land trust groups have helped protect more than 23 million acres

of land and water in the United States. EPA should encourage the transfer of technology

and innovations to these and other groups to facilitate better decision-making.

Sponsor Research on Benefits and Costs of Higher Density

Development. Sponsor research on the comparative costs and benefits of more

compact, mass transit-oriented development patterns and conventional low density

development. Look at lifecycle economic costs and environmental impacts. Identify the

cost accounting factors that have favored fringe development (e.g. not seeing the full costs

up front, tax and other policies that subsidize development on the fringe). Include in this

analysis a discussion of non-traditional pollution, i.e., noise and light.

Use SEPs to Encourage Land Conservation. Expand the use of

Supplemental Environmental Projects (SEPs) to encourage environmental partnerships

for land preservation in urban areas. A SEP is an environmental project that a violator of

environmental regulations agrees to perform as part of the settlement of an enforcement

action. Although the violator is not legally required to perform a SEP, the monetary

penalty imposed on the violator will typically be reduced if the violator agrees to perform

an acceptable project. Environmental Restoration and Protection, one of the main

categories of acceptable SEPs, allows for purchasing land for conservation programs.

Study Impacts of Sea Level Rise. Initiate and coordinate an interagency

examination of the impacts of sea level rise on U.S. shorelines, wetlands, and other

affected ecosystems, particularly in the southeastern United States. The examination

should also assess impacts on aquaculture and other marine-related economic activities.

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THE ENVIRONMENTAL FUTURE: EMERGING CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR EPA SECTION III

Advocate a New Concept of “Environmentally Advanced

Agriculture.” Assume the role of intergovernmental advocate for a new concept of

environmentally advanced agriculture and work with the Department of Agriculture to

develop the concept. The agriculture community now tends to think in terms of a

polarization between conventional industrial agriculture and organic farming. A new,

non-ideological concept is needed that can be a framework for integrating the best ideas

from precision agriculture, integrated pest management, and other areas.

Develop a National Strategy to Address the Public Health

Impacts of Antibiotics, Hormones and Other Additives in Food

Production. Review research on the use of antibiotics, hormones, and other additives

in food production to assess the state of knowledge about how they pass into the

environment and impacts they may have on public health and other organisms. Identify

gaps in understanding and formulate research agendas to address those gaps. Coordinate

with other agencies and research institutions to address those gaps and to develop a national

strategy focusing on the public health impacts of additives in the nation’s food supply. 

NATURAL RESOURCES – AIR

Forecast and Context

Air quality improvement is one of the U.S. EPA’s greatest achievements. Few

people appreciate how polluted our nation’s air would be today if not for the success of

the Clean Air Act. Yet a new, multi-pollutant approach will be needed to yield further

improvements on emerging air quality issues such as: the continuing ozone problems in

densely populated areas, the emergence of fine particulate matter as a health threat, the

emissions from diffuse sources that are difficult to control and to regulate, air toxins, and

the consequences of atmospheric interactions. Shifts to more environmentally advanced

technologies, especially in energy generation and transportation, offer great promise.

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SECTION III NATURAL RESOURCES – AIR

The possibility of having to expand the use of coal in conventional power

generation may pose severe air quality problems. This could happen for electricity

generation if renewable technologies are not developed rapidly, or if the expansion of

nuclear power is rejected due to concerns for cost, waste disposal, safety and proliferation.

It could also happen if political instability in other countries threatens our access to oil.

The EPA Science Advisory Board has noted the possibility of unanticipated

environmental problems related to the deposition of airborne contaminants on land and

water. Many airborne chemicals are more harmful to human health and ecological

systems when acting in the presence of other chemicals. As a result, the deposition and

accumulation of multiple chemicals over time may lead to health and environmental

problems not anticipated by focusing primarily on air exposures.

Global warming is the greatest long-term, air-related problem because climate

change will affect all other ecological systems. The United States is the largest contributor

to this problem. With four percent of the world’s population, we account for 24 percent

of total global emissions of greenhouse gases.23 In Kyoto, the United States agreed to a

seven percent cut below 1990 levels by 2008-2012. However, we now stand at 13 percent

above 1990 levels – the highest of all major industrial nations.24 In addition to chemicals

that contribute to climate change, there are a number of conventional and hazardous air

pollutants that require international attention and response.

From the perspective of human health, indoor air quality may well pose the

greatest environmental risk.25 A number of studies over the past decade have used

portable monitoring equipment to track where people actually experience the largest

exposures to different toxic chemicals. In the great majority of cases, these exposures

occur inside buildings. While regulations have focused on emissions to the outside

environment, exposures are occurring primarily in indoor environments. The exposures

come from offgassing from carpets and furniture, sunlight falling on plastics and other

materials, construction products, cleaning products, office machines, mildew and molds,

and a variety of other sources. Indoor environments do not lend themselves well to

traditional command-and-control approaches, so policy innovation will be essential to

make major improvements in indoor air quality. 

EPA NACEPT Pub Final 11/15/02 11:50 PM Page 30
Desired State

◆ Total exposure to air pollution from all sources does not adversely impact

public health, even for susceptible population segments.

◆ Air quality does not have an adverse impact on the ecological health of

forests and other natural systems, or the economic value of land and

communities. Air throughout the nation is not contaminated by toxins,

criteria pollutants, or particulates.

◆ A new ideal of “Healthy Buildings” is motivating all companies and

government organizations whose work affects building construction and

furnishing to eliminate toxins from indoor environments.

Opportunities for EPA

Develop a Multi-Pollutant Approach. Develop an integrated, multipollutant approach that includes the sources, the chemistry, and processes of

contaminants. Compare the impacts and fate in common for many pollutants, studying

and addressing them in a holistic way.

Re-establish an Advanced Automotive Technology

Partnership. As the Freedom Car initiative moves ahead to the challenge of using

hydrogen as a mobility fuel, we should not neglect the research problems that still remain

related to the more near-term deployment of hydrogen vehicles. The Partnership for a

New Generation of Vehicles (PNGV) between government and automakers focused

largely on developing cleaner, more fuel-efficient electric hybrid vehicles. In the PNGV

program, all U.S. automakers were scheduled to begin producing fuel-efficient electric

hybrids within the next few years. However, there are still considerable advanced research

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problems to solve. The private-public partnership should be re-established to develop

cost-effective technologies for large scale deployment of advanced fuel-efficient personal

vehicles by the end of the decade. Key areas for near-term cooperation include: advanced

internal combustion engines, lightweight body materials, and other aspects of ultraefficient vehicle design.

Continue to Support Research and Development for

Advanced Transit, Including Commercial Trucks. Explore the potential

for a partnership with the Department of Transportation (DOT) to study transportation

efficiency alternatives, including future point-to-point on-demand transportation, and

renewable energy powered light rail and high speed inter-urban systems. The 21st

Century Truck Partnership is the private-public partnership which develops and deploys

the technologies necessary for safe, clean and efficient commercial trucks and buses. Key

areas for advances include: clean and highly efficient engines, fuel cells, hybrid

powertrains, lightweight materials, and ultra-efficient aerodynamic designs.

Support Research on Ultra-Clean Coal Technology. Partner with

DOE to explore the feasibility of “ultra-clean coal technology” that could allow

significantly greater coal use without incurring climatic harm. For example, one concept

that has been suggested but not yet explored is to extract hydrogen from coal for use in

fuel cells, and to sequester CO2 and other waste gases released in the process.

Use Voluntary Cooperation to Address Indoor

Environmental Quality. Increase awareness and expand EPA’s role related to

indoor air and the indoor environment. The EPA study, Healthy Buildings, Healthy

People, promotes voluntary initiatives to increase public information about construction

materials, furniture, carpets, and cleaning chemicals.

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SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY

Forecast and Context

Today’s rapid pace of scientific discovery and technological change will likely

accelerate. We are still near the beginning of multiple revolutions in information and

communications, biotechnology and genomics, materials and manufacturing, energy

efficiency and production, transportation, construction, and agriculture. Because these

developments interact, advances in one area stimulate progress in others. The result is a

dramatic technological acceleration.

This acceleration will bring new capabilities for identifying pollutants and better

science for assessing risks. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) needs to

continually improve the science behind its risk assessments. In this and other endeavors,

EPA will be significantly challenged to keep up with positive developments in areas such

as: early biological markers of degradation, risk analysis for different genetic

subpopulations, sensor technology, and geo-spatial technologies for environmental

intelligence. The manufacturing of goods and services will become increasingly boutique,

while technological acceleration will pose difficult problems. New chemicals and products

will be developed faster than they can be tested. There will be unanticipated

environmental impacts of technologies thought to be benign, and new environmental

issues around genetic engineering, including concerns for biological terrorism.

Technology will also evolve faster than accompanying legal, moral, ethical and economic

frameworks.

Nanotechnology, the capability to manipulate things at the molecular, and

eventually the atomic level, will fundamentally change materials science. In chemistry,

designer enzymes will allow biological reactors to manufacture a myriad of substances,

from fibers to pharmaceuticals, with production capacities far greater than today’s

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chemical catalysis. In biology and medicine, genetic construction will allow the repair of

defective genes, as well as the creation of new DNA sequences, resulting in entirely new

genetic characteristics. In environmental science, highly efficient microorganisms and

smart membranes designed to filter out specific compounds and metals will enable ever

greater pollutant removal efficiencies. And in electro-engineering, miniaturization will

continue nearly unabated to the level at which quantum mechanical effects become

dominant.

The good news is that these new technologies and production processes can

sharply reduce environmental impacts. Such advances may result in developing nations

becoming more affluent without degrading their environments. These technologies will

be based on improving resource efficiency, closing the loops of materials flows, and other

Design for the Environment strategies. We already know how to double the efficiency of

electric motors, triple the efficiency of lights, automobiles and most household appliances,

and increase the efficiency of buildings by factors ranging from two to ten. In the same

way, improvements in durability, recycling, minimum materials design, and elimination

of waste can enable far less manufacturing to produce the same desired flow of products

and services. This is why the European Union recently adopted the goal of a fourfold

(“Factor Four”) gain in resource productivity. The Organization for Economic

Cooperation and Development (OECD) Environment Ministers, the government of

Sweden, and a number of distinguished industrial and academic leaders in Europe and

Japan have gone further to advocate a Factor Ten goal for 2050.

Today’s best practice engineering incorporates environmental considerations from

the outset into the basic design and redesign of products, processes, and technical and

management systems. An emerging field of green chemistry is developing chemical

technologies that minimize or eliminate hazardous substances during the design,

manufacture, and use of chemical products and processes. The most advanced industrial

designs are increasingly closing the loops of materials flows, reusing materials or turning

the waste of one process into feedstock for another. DuPont, for example, recycles nearly

a billion dollars of used photographic film per year using a process called reverse logistics.

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This kind of approach may ultimately lead us to eliminate the entire concept of waste and 

treat pollution as a design failure. Emissions will be regarded as unsaleable production.

The motto of businesses developing the most advanced production systems is, “If we can’t

sell it, we shouldn’t produce it – we should design it out.”

These new generations of environmentally advanced technologies are, or soon will

be, practical from both an engineering and economic perspective. But, they must

overcome many barriers, from lack of knowledge among investors to environmental

regulations that thwart innovation. Speeding the emergence of these technologies is a

fundamental environmental and business challenge today.

Despite the impressive gains in knowledge and technology, environmental

decision-makers almost always face uncertainty in terms of available data, its

interpretation, and the likely impact of alternative responses to collection and evaluation.

In an effort to address this paralysis by analysis, some governments have embraced a

concept referred to as the “precautionary principle.” As invoked in the Rio Declaration

on Environment and Development, the precautionary principle states, “Where there are

threats of serious or irreversible damage, lack of scientific certainty shall not be used as a

reason for postponing cost-effective measures to prevent environmental degradation.”

The challenge lies in defining threats in a way that is protective but not prohibitive. As

noted earlier, improving the quality of analytical and scientific tools used in EPA risk

assessments will lead to more informed decision-making. 

Desired State 

◆ Design for the Environment is a universal practice. People working in

applied science, technological development and engineering have

environmental objectives in mind from the outset of their work.

◆ Environmentally advanced technologies in all areas of the economy utilize

energy and materials efficiently and use closed loop processes that

eliminate the concept of waste.

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◆ Good science is the basis for justifying and adjusting environmental

standards. EPA is able not only to keep up with developments in science

and technology, but also to directly facilitate scientific and technological

innovations that help it effectively carry out its mission.

Opportunities for EPA

Create Partnerships for Energy Efficiency. Collaborate with the

DOE to leverage investments in energy efficiency from the nation’s largest capital pools

by creating partnerships with sectors neither organization has traditionally engaged.

Among them are: the financial community, property-casualty insurance industry, bonding

industry, community development sector, commercial leasing sector, and the group of

stakeholders investing in Clean Air Act compliance. Using Cooperative Research and

Development Agreements, work with these sectors to quantify and verify the economic

benefits of energy efficiency in terms credible to industry leaders. Technology verification

would give industry greater confidence in the benefits of energy efficiency, leading to

greater investments as verified technologies are mainstreamed into each industry’s capital

outlays and customer incentive structures.

Develop New Regulatory Relief Strategies to Encourage

Technological Innovation. Review EPA program areas to assess emerging

technological innovations that involve major improvements in resource efficiency, closed

loop processes, green chemistry and other Design for the Environment approaches.

Develop new programs, faster and less cumbersome than Project XL, that demonstrate the

environmental performance of innovative technologies, while rewarding superior

environmental performance with regulatory relief and flexibility. Mandate careful

monitoring of environmental impacts and regulatory action within a reasonable period of

time if problems arise.

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Marshal Sound Science to Develop and Defend Standards.

Develop greater scientific capacity for developing realistic, protective environmental

performance standards and the legal capacity for supporting states, tribes and local

officials in defending the environmental standards they are mandated to enforce. Create

a one-stop help desk where state, tribal and local officials can locate EPA scientific and

legal expertise.

Lead by Example. Work systematically to make EPA facilities and

operations a model of technologies and practices that need to come into widespread use.

For example, upgrade EPA facilities with more efficient lighting, glazing, and other

building systems wherever feasible. Make choices of carpets, furniture, cleaning products,

office machines and other products on the basis of energy efficiency and indoor

environmental quality. Use hybrid fuel electric vehicles and fuel cell powered vehicles as

they become available.

Promote Emerging Developments in Biotechnology and

Nanotechnology. Support ongoing environmental scanning to identify emerging

developments in biotechnology and nanotechnology. The scan should identify potential

dangers that may need to be addressed by policy actions, as well as developments with

high potential for facilitating environmental improvement. Examples include: emerging

bioremediation methods, biotechnology approaches to hydrogen production, and bioindustrial processes that can replace the use of toxic chemicals and inherently dirty

combustion processes. EPA should also explore and facilitate developing environmental

monitoring technologies – from real time pollutant sensors to DNA micro arrays – for

assessing human and ecological health.

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INFORMATION MANAGEMENT AND ACCESS

Forecast and Context 

Information – coupled with public education and access – is central for aligning

the efficiency of markets with environmental protection. Greater use of market-based

strategies and voluntary agreements require informed involvement by all participants.

Informed involvement requires access to high quality information. We will find it much

easier to reach agreement on solutions if all stakeholders have access to information they

trust about key factors such as:

◆ Changes in the state of the environment 

◆ Location and extent of environmental hazards

◆ Risks to human health and ecosystems 

◆ Policies, programs, and institutional responsibilities for environmental

protection

◆ Environmental performance of corporations and public institutions

◆ Knowledge and technical innovations for solving environmental problems

◆ Product evaluations for making environmentally sound purchasing choices

Better coordination is needed to integrate information from many sources.

Where appropriate, information needs to be presented in ways that are easy to

understand, with technical terms minimized or clearly explained. Where feasible,

organizing information by watershed or by community or zip code-specific formats can

make it more useful to citizens. Greater support for environmental education can help

the public understand environmental issues and interpret available information.

Providing vital information in a variety of other languages, as well as English, can help

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Technological progress will create dramatic new capabilities for information

collection and management in future generations. For example, improved remote sensing

using high spatial and spectral resolution satellites, airborne, and in-situ observation

systems will allow for near real time monitoring of a wide variety of environmental

problems. This information can be fed into automated change-detection decision

support systems to provide alerts to both regulators and the regulated community. The

rapid convergence of advancing geospatial information systems (GIS), visualization

products and Internet capabilities will revolutionize the display of environmental

information. Advances toward miniaturized, ultra-sensitive, inexpensive sensor

technologies will allow communities, businesses, and even individuals to monitor

exposures. In the design of some environmental intelligence systems, a balance will need

to be found between the advantages of completely open access and a need to block access

to information that could be used to carry out acts of environmental terrorism. 

New technical capabilities will empower non-governmental organizations, as well

as governments and corporations. Global Forest Watch, an international network of local

forest protection groups organized by the World Resources Institute, suggests the

possibilities ahead. Local groups linked by the Internet and a common data-gathering

format will eventually monitor all of the world’s remaining old growth forests, recording

on digital maps any illegal cutting, burning, or other violations of forest leases. This

information will be posted on the Internet.

Better and more widely available information changes behaviors. For example,

the disclosures of toxic releases under the Emergency Planning and Community Right to

Know Act quickly led to voluntary reductions – more than 40 percent in the first five

years.26 The ultimate goal of improving information management and access is simple,

yet profound. The better information we have about the environment, the better basis

we will have for wise decision-making. The more information we have about the

environmental behavior of all our institutions, the more incentives there will be for

environmental responsibility.

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Desired State

◆ All stakeholders have easy access to accurate, understandable information

necessary for making informed environmental decisions.

◆ Environmental information is effectively used for decision-making and

performance management.

◆ Environmental information is fully integrated and efficiently managed,

and is seamlessly exchanged among all stakeholders.

◆ Environmental indicators are fully developed as the primary gauge of

system health, and are effectively integrated with other environmental

information.

Opportunities for EPA

Expand EPA’s Information Role. Focus EPA efforts far more strongly

on environmental education and disseminating information to the general public and

other stakeholders. Discuss priorities for improving information management and access

with a wide range of stakeholders. Build on current practices with proven effectiveness.

For example: 

◆ EPA’s recently announced Environmental Indicators Initiative.

◆ The Technical Assistance Grant process at Superfund sites is an effective

model of working with the public to share information.

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◆ ENVIROMAPPER, which offers information on air and water emissions,

and facilities in and out of compliance, could be made much more

accessible and user friendly to people outside EPA. 

◆ Expand community information access programs, such as Windows to the

Environment, to invite the public to participate in the collection and

analysis of real time information. 

Invest in Geospatial Technologies. Incorporate geospatial

technologies into EPA’s regulatory, rulemaking, and compliance procedures. As part of

this effort, develop a cross-Agency policy to embrace performance-based equivalent

measurement technologies. EPA has completed a year and one-half long study of GIS,

GPS, remote sensing and visualization tools for monitoring, measuring and mapping

environmental impacts. Currently, EPA is assessing where these technologies can help

business sectors. As this review process is completed, EPA should develop a blueprint for

bringing these technologies into full use.

Improve Information Coordination. Expand EPA’s ongoing

information coordination role, engaging state, tribal and local regulators and other

entities involved in environmental monitoring and incorporate their information into

unified databases. EPA should also expand its programs that standardize and share

environmental data with other nations and multilateral institutions.

Monitor Innovations in Sensing Technology. Monitor fastmoving developments in sensor technology (biosensors, chemical noses, micro electromechanical systems (MEMS), nanomaterial-based sensors, etc.) that promise to make

inexpensive, miniaturized, ultra-sensitive sensors widely available for detecting

environmental contaminants.

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Perfect Integrated Monitoring Strategies. Concurrent with

innovations in sensing technology, EPA should promote the development and testing of

integrated monitoring strategies that allow “total human exposure” assessments to all

pollutants across all media, effectively taking into account synergistic effects of multipollutant and multi-media exposures.

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ECONOMICS AND COMMERCE

Forecast and Context

Ecosystems are the foundation of economic enterprise. Natural and managed

ecosystems provide many familiar and marketable goods such as: crops, seafood, livestock,

forage, timber, natural fibers, biomass fuels, and many pharmaceutical and industrial

inputs. Ecosystems also provide a vast array of ecosystem services that are much less

familiar because they are not traded in the marketplace: purifying water, cycling nutrients,

regulating atmospheric composition and climate, dispersing seeds and pollinating plants,

controlling pests, building topsoil, and assimilating and detoxifying society’s wastes. 

Even the most conservative calculations suggest that the value of these ecosystem

services is greater than today’s gross world product.27 Indeed, these services are invaluable,

since without them every economy would permanently collapse. Economic and

environmental well-being are ultimately inseparable. The U.S. Environmental Protection

Agency (EPA) needs to expand its current efforts to quantify and, whenever possible,

monetize the benefits associated with environmental protection and improvement. A full

cost accounting of all costs and benefits associated with environmental programs is

necessary to support effective and efficient decision-making.

A comprehensive overview of the world’s ecosystems prepared by the United

Nations, the World Bank, and the World Resources Institute concluded that, “There are

considerable signs that the capacity of ecosystems, the biological engines of the planet, to

produce many of the goods and services we depend on is rapidly declining.”28 The decline

is fastest in some of the world’s poorest nations, creating the prospect of future ecologicaleconomic development failures. Affluent nations face special environmental risks related

to possibilities for terrorism and economic disruption.

Command-and-control policies that use laws, regulations, and standards to

influence behavior are sometimes the only effective way of protecting ecosystem goods

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and services. However, command-and-control approaches have real economic costs

because they tend to deny firms the flexibility to innovate and respond in the most cost

effective manner. As a result, environmental regulations are increasingly being

supplemented by cooperative partnerships and by market-based instruments such as:

taxes, pollution charges, tradable quotas, or pollution emission permits.

In the United States, the amount of consumer waste, particularly in electronic

products, is growing astronomically. It is estimated that 31 million personal computers

will become trash next year, and that number may double by 2007. All of these electronic

goods contain small amounts of toxic substances (including lead, mercury, and heavy

metals) that collectively can become a national environmental problem. The increased

implementation of producer take-back programs, similar to those introduced in Europe,

could help minimize this pending problem. A few states are making modest steps in the

direction of product take-back programs, but much more needs to be done. 

A consistent pursuit of ways to align the efficiency of markets with environmental

protection will lead toward a future in which the structure of the economy increasingly

shifts from selling things to selling the “services that things provide.” In today’s economy,

providers profit by selling more things more often, increasing the “throughput” of energy

and materials through the economy, which is the primary source of environmental

impacts. A shift toward selling the services that things provide changes the incentive

structure for providers and consumers alike, so that both benefit from solutions that are

more energy and materials efficient.

Already some U.S. companies are moving in this direction. For example, Carrier,

the world’s largest manufacturer of air conditioners, is experimenting with selling

“comfort services” rather than air conditioners. This shift creates a situation where the

best way for Carrier to boost its profits, and give its customers more comfort at lower cost,

is to increase the energy efficiency and durability of its equipment. Similarly, Dow is

shifting toward providing “pesticide services” and carpet manufacturer Interface is selling

“floor covering services” rather than carpets. In fact, Interface actually retains ownership

of the floor covering product and recovers worn product from its customers’ facilities for

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reprocessing into its next generation of product. In each case, both provider and customer

profit from minimizing rather than maximizing the flow of energy and materials.

Fostering this shift in business strategy and economic structure may be the most effective

way to speed the emergence of environmentally advanced technologies.

Desired State

◆ Effective protection of the capacity of ecosystems to produce valuable

goods and services through sustainable global development and

restoration of damaged ecosystems. A large middle class emerges in all

developing nations, with rapid growth in resource productivity, jobs,

wages, capital, savings, profits, knowledge and education, combined with

rapid declines in poverty, waste, and pollution. 

◆ Integrative policies treat the goals of economic growth, environmental

protection, and social equity as mutually reinforcing, and recognize

environmental justice as an essential component of social equity.

◆ Prevention of ecological-economic development failures in poor nations,

with cooperative international actions to respond to emergency situations. 

◆ More effective use of market-based instruments, voluntary agreements,

and partnerships to achieve environmental objectives without impeding

commercial transactions or incurring unnecessary costs. The economic

consequences of environmental actions are well understood. 

◆ A widespread shift from selling things to selling the “services that things

provide.”

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Opportunities for EPA

Support International Policy Coordination. Support the

development of an over-arching legal instrument or forum, such as the United Nations

Commission on Sustainable Development, to review and verify attainment of global

environmental goals in an integrated manner.

Provide Alerts on Substandard International Environmental

Practices. Cooperate with international environmental organizations to identify high

environmental risk manufacturing practices and to minimize the potential for migration

of such practices to developing and economically-stressed regions.

Assist in Preventing Ecological-Economic Development

Failures. Cooperate with the Department of State, the United Nations Development

Programme, and other appropriate organizations to develop a capability to identify

serious environmental problems that could lead to conflicts or ecological-economic

failures in developing nations. In partnership with other national and international

organizations, develop capabilities for providing economic support, environmental

restoration, and assistance in health infrastructure development to help nations avoid or

deal with crises.

Support U.S. Industry Contingency Planning. Become a leader in

developing the environmental side of contingency planning, encouraging and supporting

industry to anticipate environmental problems that might occur with a sharp economic

decline, terrorism or natural disasters. EPA sector-based programs can help businesses

identify dangers within particular industrial sectors and understand the potential

environmental and health risks associated with economic stress. Support industry with

national actions, e.g., an underground storage tank trust fund, or bonding arrangements

to ensure for costs of environmental remediation.

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Support Government and Community-Based Emergency

Management Planning. Under the Clean Water Act, broaden emergency

management plans to include terrorist activity. Assure that infrastructure management

systems have adequate contingency plans for acts of terrorism, including ecoterrorism, as

well as other environmental surprises. Provide guidance to other agencies at different

levels of government on reviewing their emergency management plans for environmental

issues.

Improve the Permitting Process to Foster Environmental

Justice. Environmental justice needs to go hand-in-hand with economic development.

To prevent disproportionate impacts to poor and minority communities, modify the

process of permitting new facilities to adequately take into account cumulative and

multimedia impacts of nearby facilities. Identify all sources of emissions, including nonpoint sources, and account for health conditions in communities when evaluating risk.

Today, newly permitted facilities might comply with environmental regulations, but may

add significantly to the quantity of pollutants already present and cumulatively create

major health risks.

Expand EPA Product Stewardship and Design for the

Environment Efforts. With technology acceleration and globalization causing a

proliferation of products in U.S. markets, comprehensive testing of their environmental

impacts will not be possible. In order to cope, EPA needs to move up the production

chain to encourage manufacturer product take-back, other product stewardship

arrangements, and a wide range of Design for the Environment approaches. Cooperative

agreements among consumers, government and industry that give businesses more

responsibility for end-of-life management of products create incentives to redesign

products with fewer toxins, making them more durable, reusable and recyclable.

Voluntary partnerships with industry, universities, research institutions, and other

government agencies can help businesses find cost effective ways to bring environmental

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considerations into the design of products, processes, and management systems. Large

corporations can influence the behavior of thousands of smaller companies by writing

quality specifications for their suppliers that keep toxins and materials that cannot be

reused or recycled out of their products. More emphasis on voluntary approaches does

not imply that EPA should give up a product testing role. However, EPA will need to

develop strategies for selecting the most important targets.

Continue to Identify Cost-Effective Environmental

Technologies. EPA should continue to identify and bring to market the best

practices and most cost effective environmental technologies by expanding its

Environmental Technology Verification program (ETV). The ETV program verifies the

performance of commercial-ready environmental technologies, and partners with the U.S.

Agency for International Development (USAID), U.S.-Asia Environmental Partnership

Program (USAEP), and the Department of Commerce.

Co-Sponsor Industry Conferences on “Selling The Services

That Things Provide.” The EPA’s sector-based programs can partner with industry

associations, universities, environmental organizations, and other stakeholders to hold

conferences for different industry groups on the concept of shifting from selling things to

selling the services things provide. The conferences can feature expert presentations and

reports by industry innovators who have already adopted this approach, and participatory

“how to” working sessions.

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POLITICS AND SOCIAL EVOLUTION

Forecast and Context

Without much fanfare, a historic redistribution of decision-making roles is

underway in many nations today, including the United States. Power is leaking away

from nation states in all directions: upward, downward, and sideways. This pattern of

change will have enormous implications for environmental protection, for better or for

worse. Moreover, the gap between the “haves” and the “have nots” is widening.

According to the World Bank data on poverty, the ratio of global average income of the

top five percent to the bottom five percent has increased from six to 186 in the past 20

years.

The shift upward is related, in large part, to the growth of multinational

corporations and their evolution from loose collections of national firms into truly global

enterprises. Less known, but just as important, is the growing array of international

economic and political institutions. More than 5,900 international governmental

organizations and networks operate today, and many are quite influential in their own

spheres of activity.29

The shift downward is moving some decisions to regional, state, tribal and local

levels. In the United States, this new federalism has been evolving under both Democratic

and Republican administrations. A similar phenomenon is underway in many industrial

nations.

The shift sideways involves a wide array of privatization arrangements and publicprivate partnerships. It also includes the growing role that non-governmental

organizations (NGOs) are playing in governance at every level. NGOs bring issues to

attention, propose and influence solutions, and monitor the behavior of corporations,

governments and other entities. They are increasing their influence by linking into

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SECTION III POLITICS AND SOCIAL EVOLUTION

transnational networks, coordinating their efforts globally, and moving at Internet speed.

The EPA will have to be flexible and adjust to the challenge of working with these

networks because information technology has enabled them to reconfigure alliances

around specific issues.

It is possible to imagine a future where this pattern of change leads to great

improvements in environmental protection. NGOs at every level would focus attention

on environmental problems and suggest solutions. International institutions and

conventions would structure global responses to global problems. Transnational

corporations would transfer environmentally advanced technologies around the world, set

high environmental and social standards for their own operations, and establish

independent monitoring practices. National governments would support global

environmental treaties, make greater use of market-based instruments and voluntary

partnerships, and ensure that state and local governments have the capacity to maintain

standards. State and local governments would react responsively to the conditions they

face, innovate, and share lessons of experience. The lowest level of governance able to

produce the desired result would always have the primary role. Business, government,

and NGOs would have increasingly cooperative, rather than antagonistic, relationships.

Unfortunately, it is also possible to imagine a future where this pattern of change

undermines environmental protection. Key nations could fail to support global treaties

and conventions. Lack of support for the United Nations and other international

institutions would limit their effectiveness. Many global corporations would engage in a

“race to the bottom,” moving operations to nations where environmental standards are

weakest. National governments would fail to maintain environmental standards, fail to

accelerate the emergence of environmentally advanced technologies, and fail to ensure that

states, tribes and local governments have the capacity to carry out their delegated

responsibilities. Decisions and actions will determine which way our society evolves today.

Desired State 

◆ Environmental decision-making takes place at the level most appropriate

to achieve desired results.

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◆ The United States consistently approaches environmental protection from

a global perspective, not just a national perspective.

◆ Full compliance is maintained with environmental standards at the

national, state and local levels.

◆ Distributed and informed decision-making, with effective capacity

building and performance monitoring, allows state, tribal and local

governments to react responsibly to environmental conditions. 

Opportunities for EPA

Sustain U.S. Global Participation. Devote far more attention to

improve and support global environmental initiatives and conventions. U.S. participation

in formulating and achieving global environmental objectives needs to be sustained and

consistent. The United States is a major environmental player on the world stage, but not

the director. If our nation is to remain a major player, it has to engage. 

Support Information Needs for Greater Transparency and

Accountability. Globalization of digital technologies is creating a radical expansion

of connectivity that allows people to more easily seek and exchange information on a

global scale. NGOs are using these capabilities to seek out information about the

performance of corporations and governments, to share that information widely, and to

coordinate environmental activism more effectively around the world. Over the decades

ahead, all major corporations will come under scrutiny. Society is in the early stages of a

transition phase, from a comparatively opaque, low information state to a high

information state with much greater transparency and accountability. What should it be

like on the other side of this transition when good information on the environmental

performance of all institutions is widely available? What information on environmental

performance needs to be universally collected? What information quality assurance roles

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are necessary? How can redundant reporting requirements on companies be minimized?

What roles can NGOs play best, and what are their information needs? What forms of

involvement will do the most to assure responsible corporate and NGO behavior?

Thoughtful responses to these questions could allow EPA to make extremely important

contributions to domestic and international environmental protection.

Support The Global Reporting Initiative. EPA has given a small level

of financial support to the Global Reporting Initiative (GRI), established by the Coalition

for Environmentally Responsible Economies (CERES) in partnership with the United

Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). EPA should consider expanding this support

and providing it on an ongoing basis. The mission of the GRI is to promote international

harmonization in reporting information on corporate environmental, social and

economic performance. It is being developed with the active participation of

corporations, NGOs, accountancy organizations, business associations, and other

international stakeholders. Twenty-one pilot companies, including major U.S. firms such

as Baxter International, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Ford, General Motors, Proctor & Gamble,

and Sunoco, have tested and improved initial draft reporting guidelines. By 2002,

participants hope to establish the GRI as a permanent, independent, international body

with a multi-stakeholder governance structure.

Expand EPA’s Role in Regional, State and Tribal Capacity

Building. Expand EPA’s role in capacity building to ensure that EPA regions, and the

state and tribal governments they serve, have the skills needed to carry out their delegated

responsibilities. Then ensure that states, tribes and regions are given the maximum

authority and independence that can be delegated.

Improve Capacity to Track State and Tribal Environmental

Performance. Identify gaps and improve EPA’s capability to track the performance

of state and tribal governments with delegated authority for EPA functions. Support

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ongoing efforts of the Results-Based Initiative to integrate EPA and state performance

information. This will require significant improvements in compliance reporting and

better performance measures. While EPA has developed some abilities to measure inputs

and outputs, it currently lacks a systematic method for assessing the effectiveness and

efficiency of its major program activities.

Reinstate Federal Oversight Capacity for Distressed State

Programs. EPA should fulfill its responsibility to help failing state-delegated programs

to attain established environmental objectives and carry out major program

responsibilities.

Create New Opportunities for NGO and Stakeholder Input.

Throughout EPA, establish new mechanisms that reach out to NGOs and other

organizations, establish new relationships with a broader range of stakeholders, and

provide them with formal opportunities for input. Key areas for soliciting input include

stakeholder views on priority problem areas and suggestions for improving EPA’s

strategies, services and operations.

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SECTION IV. 

CONCLUSIONS

The National Advisory Council for Environment Policy and Technology

(NACEPT) developed this report in an effort to play a more active, strategic role in

advising the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). Through this process,

NACEPT gained insight into the commitment, skills and resources involved in futures

planning. While NACEPT at times struggled with questions of process, it made great

strides in understanding what works, and what does not work, in creating an

environmental foresight radar. It is important to note, however, that these are still first

steps and much more can be done.

NACEPT looks forward to continuing this work with the EPA Administrator and

in partnering with the program offices that have worked so hard to initiate and lead

strategic and futures planning. We hope that with this report, EPA will select specific

emerging challenges and opportunities and return to NACEPT for further consultation.

We look forward to EPA’s response to this report and to future efforts to scan the

environmental horizon. 

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SECTION V. 

SUMMARY OF RECOMMENDATIONS 

In developing the recommendations contained in this report, the National

Advisory Council for Environmental Policy and Technology (NACEPT) recognized that

many require coordination with, or action by, agencies beyond EPA. NACEPT has

divided the Opportunities for EPA into the following categories:

A. Immediate: Those that appear to be both technically feasible and within the

scope of EPA’s mission, and could be implemented immediately through

commitment of appropriate resources.

B. Mid-Term: Those that appear to be technically feasible in the near future, but

may lie outside the scope of EPA’s mission and/or require coordination with other

agencies.

C. Long-Term: Those that require substantial research and development and/or

coordination with other agencies prior to implementation, but offer long-term

rewards.

A. IMMEDIATE OPPORTUNITIES

World Population and Demographics

◆ Raise domestic awareness of the importance of sustainable development.

◆ Facilitate export of environmentally superior technologies through

revitalization of the Environmental Trade Workgroup of the Trade

Promotion Coordination Committee.

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Natural Resources - Energy 

◆ Expand the Energy-Star Program broadly across all consumer product

sectors.

◆ Establish a Green Vehicle Labeling Program to identify automobiles that

are both energy efficient and manufactured using environmentally

friendly components and processes.

Natural Resources - Water

◆ Integrate water efficiency with water quality standards and other

regulations.

◆ Expedite the pending Pretreatment Streamlining Initiative in the Office of

Water to address water quality/water efficiency conflicts in the effluent

guidelines programs.

Natural Resources - Biodiversity, Land, and Food

◆ Enhance the use of Supplemental Environmental Projects in pending and

future enforcement actions to encourage land conservation and

restoration efforts.

Natural Resources - Air 

◆ Follow up the Office of Air and Radiation’s report “Healthy Buildings,

Healthy People” with a national voluntary partnership for a toxin-free

indoor environment.

Science and Technology

◆ Move beyond Project XL with new, simplified regulatory relief strategies

to spur superior environmental performance and technological

innovation.

◆ Lead by example with a clear, Agency-wide commitment to

environmental excellence, beginning with the EPA Strategic Plan.

SECTION V SUMMARY OF RECOMMENDATIONS

EPA NACEPT Pub Final 11/15/02 11:50 PM Page 60
Information Management and Access

◆ Expand EPA’s information role through increased focus on delivering

environmental education to the public.

Economics and Commerce

◆ Continue to identify cost-effective, emerging environmental technologies

through the Environmental Technology Verification program. 

◆ Support disaster preparedness by state and local governments,

communities, and U.S. industry through development and delivery of

comprehensive vulnerability assessment tools, and resources to implement

effective contingency plans. 

◆ Expand EPA’s product stewardship and Design for the Environment efforts

to ensure the development of environmentally responsible products and

services.

Politics and Social Evolution

◆ Enhance EPA’s own capacity to track state and tribal environmental

performance to accurately assess the effectiveness of its major programs.

◆ Enhance the capacity of EPA regional offices and states to effectively carry

out their delegated program responsibilities, including providing

compliance assistance to regulated entities.

◆ Promptly reinstate federal oversight capacity for distressed state programs

where states fail to fulfill delegated program obligations or consistently fail

to attain environmental objectives.

◆ Engage NGOs and other non-traditional stakeholders in identifying

effective community-based approaches to environmental protection.

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B. MID-TERM OPPORTUNITIES

World Population and Demographics

◆ Elevate EPA’s international role in providing credible information on the

environmental, economic and social impacts of population growth and

consumption, and in supporting global sustainable development

networks.

Natural Resources - Energy

◆ Encourage development of total cost accounting for energy technologies

to facilitate responsible energy development.

◆ Spur investment in renewable energy resources and energy efficient

technologies through Clean Air Act State Implementation Plans.

◆ Promote market-oriented policies and programs for reducing greenhouse

gas emissions. 

◆ Demonstrate methane-to-hydrogen conversion and hydrogen energy

technologies at publicly-owned treatment works.

Natural Resources - Water

◆ Develop a holistic approach to water and the environment, working with

EPA, other federal agencies, and non-government stakeholders.

◆ Redouble efforts to effectively include non-point sources in water

management programs.

Natural Resources - Biodiversity, Land, and Food

◆ Continue to develop partnerships with state agencies responsible for

wildlife preservation and biodiversity protection.

SECTION V SUMMARY OF RECOMMENDATIONS

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Natural Resources - Air 

◆ Develop a multi-pollutant approach to address air emissions from diffuse

sources.

Science and Technology

◆ Marshal sound science in developing and defending environmental

standards.

Information Management and Access

◆ Expand EPA’s information coordination role with state and local

regulatory partners and other entities performing environmental

monitoring.

◆ Invest in and incorporate geospatial technologies into EPA’s rulemaking,

regulatory and compliance procedures.

Economics and Commerce

◆ Implement a global alert system to identify high environmental risk

manufacturing processes to minimize migration of these practices to

economically vulnerable nations and communities.

◆ Integrate cumulative risk assessment into EPA and state permitting

processes to foster environmental justice.

Politics and Social Evolution

◆ Support the Global Reporting Initiative pilot projects currently being

tested at major multinational corporations.

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C. LONG-TERM OPPORTUNITIES

World Population and Demographics 

◆ Establish an “Envirocorps” to complement the international aid efforts of

the Peace Corps.

Natural Resources - Energy 

◆ Support innovative research on sequestering carbon in energy production.

◆ Encourage research and development of hydrogen as a primary energy

carrier.

◆ Partner with the Department of Energy (DOE) on the new Freedom Car

project that will develop hydrogen fuel celled motor vehicles in the next

ten years.

Natural Resources - Water

◆ Support an effective market environment to minimize generation of

hazardous waste through pollution prevention, source reduction, and

other initiatives.

Natural Resources - Biodiversity, Land, and Food

◆ Develop comprehensive biodiversity indicators as primary indicators of

ecological health.

◆ Expand domestic and global efforts to identify and control invasive

species.

◆ Sponsor research on the benefits and costs of higher density community

development.

◆ Assess the ecological and economic impacts of rising sea levels resulting

from global warming.

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SECTION V SUMMARY OF RECOMMENDATIONS

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THE ENVIRONMENTAL FUTURE: EMERGING CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR EPA SECTION V

◆ Advocate environmentally advanced agriculture practices.

◆ Develop a national strategy to address the public health impacts of

antibiotics, hormones, and other food additives in food production.

Natural Resources - Air

◆ Re-establish an advanced automotive technology partnership.

◆ Support research and development for advanced transit systems, including

commercial vehicles.

◆ Support research on ultra-clean coal technology.

Science and Technology

◆ Create investment partnerships for energy efficiency.

◆ Identify and promote environmentally beneficial developments in

biotechnology and nanotechnology.

Information Management and Access

◆ Monitor and promote the use of new sensing technologies in

environmental monitoring.

◆ Perfect integrated monitoring technologies that allow “total human

exposure” assessments to multimedia and multi-pollutant exposures.

Economics and Commerce

◆ Support the development of an international legal instrument to review

and verify environmental performance.

◆ Assist in preventing ecological and economic development failures.

◆ Encourage conversion through informational outreach from a “goods”

economy to one that provides the services that these goods provide.

Politics and Social Evolution

◆ Support U.S. participation in global environmental initiatives and

conventions.

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ATTACHMENT A

Charge to the

National Advisory Council for

Environmental Policy and Technology

Emerging Trends and Issues Workgroup 

Background

In 1999, the National Advisory Council for Environmental Policy and

Technology (NACEPT) undertook a tenth anniversary study to evaluate its impact and

effectiveness, and to chart a course for its future by identifying ways to better serve the

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). The study recommended that NACEPT

become proactive and operate strategically to identify policy issues for the Council to

address. EPA agreed that NACEPT can play a valuable strategic role and encouraged the

Council to identify areas where NACEPT believes stakeholder input would aid EPA

decisionmakers. 

A March 2000 NACEPT planning session, and the Reinvention Action Council

(RAC) meeting in June 2000, resulted in discussions about NACEPT’s new role as an

anticipatory and visionary body. The Council agreed to help EPA with the conceptual

design of a process for identifying emerging issues affecting EPA over the next five to ten

years. 

Committee Charge

The Emerging Trends and Issues Workgroup agreed to use a two-pronged

approach to become a more strategic and visionary body. First, NACEPT will identify a

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process to enhance EPA’s (and/or NACEPT’s) ability to identify emerging trends and

issues that will affect EPA over the next five to ten years. Second, NACEPT will identify

emerging issues and trends, assign priorities, and prepare issue papers for presentation to

the NACEPT Council. The initial work of the group will focus on the following

activities: 

◆ Produce an interim report of emerging issues and trends. 

◆ Organize proposed emerging topics into overarching themes.

◆ Dialog with a futurist to help identify and prioritize significant issues and

trends. 

◆ Identify models used by corporations with units dedicated to examining

future events and trends. 

◆ Invite EPA representatives to give presentations on the historical

perspective of EPA’s strategic planning process and the budgetary analysis

of core issues.

◆ Recognize that the identification of emerging trends and issues is an

evolving process. 

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69

ATTACHMENT B

Endnotes

1

United Nations Population Fund, “The State of the World Population 1995,”

(New York: 1993).

2

Military Health System, U.S. Department of Defense, “Toward A New

Enterprise,” (Washington, D.C.: 1999, 2-3).

3

Population Information Program, Johns Hopkins University School of Public

Health, “Population Growth and Urbanization: Cities at the Forefront,” published in

Istanbul + 5 preview edition of Population Reports, (Baltimore: 2001).

4

World Health Organization [WHO], “Health and the Environment in

Sustainable Development – Five Years After the Earth Summit,” (Geneva: 1997).

5

James Hansen et al., “Global Warming in the Twenty-First Century: An

Alternative Scenario,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, (16 June 2000, 1-6).

6

Nebojsa Nakicenovic and Rob Swart, eds., Emissions Scenarios: A Special Report of

the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press,

2000).

7

Nebojsa Nakicenovic, Arnulf Grubler, and Alan McDonald, eds., Global Energy

Perspectives, (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1998).

8

Seth Dunn, “Decarbonizing the Energy Economy,” Worldwatch Institute, State of

the World 2001, (Washington, D.C.: 2001, 91).

9

Jesse H. Ausubel, “The Liberation of the Environment,” Daedalus, (125(3),

Summer 1996, 1-17).

10Ibid.

11Ibid.

12World Resources Institute, World Resources 2000-2001, (Washington, D.C.:

World Resources Institute, 2000, 110).

13Ibid. 

EPA NACEPT Pub Final 11/15/02 11:50 PM Page 69
14Ibid. See also “Global Trends 2015,” Washington Central Intelligence Agency,

2000.

15World Water Council, “World’s Rivers in Crisis,” press release, (Washington,

D.C.: 29 November 1999).

16Sandra Postel, “Forging a Sustainable Water Strategy,” in State of the World 1996,

(Washington, D.C.: Worldwatch Institute, 1996, 40-59).

17Groundwater statistic from United Nations Environment Programme,

“Groundwater: A Threatened Resource,” (Nairobi: 1996, p. 7); river water statistic from

Igor A. Shiklomanov, World Water Resources, (Paris: International Hydrological Program,

United Nations Educational Scientific and Cultural Organization, 1998, 6).

18Robert T. Watson, et al., Protecting Our Planet, Securing Our Future,

(Washington, D.C.: United Nations Environment Programme, U.S. National

Aeronautics and Space Administration, and The World Bank, 1998, 16-30).

19Bjorn Lomborg, The Skeptical Environmentalist: Measuring the Real State of the

World, (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2001).

20“Global Warming and Terrestrial Biodiversity Decline,” World Wildlife Fund,

2001.

21Warren Richey, “Showdown Over $7.8 Billion Plan to Restore the Everglades,”

Christian Science Monitor, July 2, 1999.

22Gary Gardner, “Preserving Global Cropland,” in State of the World 1997,

(Washington: Worldwatch Institute, 1997, 58).

23Seth Dunn, Carbon Emissions Continue Decline in Vital Signs 2001

(Washington, D.C.: Worldwatch Institute, 2001, 52).

24Estimate based on statistics from the International Energy Agency (IEA), “Oil,

Gas, Coal and Electricity Quarterly Statistics,” second quarter (Paris: Organization for

Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD)/IEA, 2000, 400-401, 446-447).

25U.S. EPA, “Healthy Buildings, Healthy People: A Vision for the 21st Century,”

2001.

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71

26President’s Council on Sustainable Development, “Sustainable America: A New

Consensus,” (Washington, D.C.: 1996, 62).

27Robert Costanza et al., “The Value of the World’s Ecosystem Services and

Natural Capital,” Nature, Vol. 387, 1997, 259.

28Robert T. Watson, et al, “Protecting Our Planet, Securing Our Future,”

(Washington, D.C., United Nations Environment Programme, U.S. National

Aeronautics and Space Administration and the World Bank, 1998).

29Ann M. Florini, The Third Force: The Rise of Transnational Civil Society,

(Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Washington, D.C.: 2000).

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