DOE/EIA-0383(2013)|April2013

withProjectionsto2040

AnnualEnergy

Outlook2013
For further information . . .

The Annual Energy Outlook 2013 (AEO2013) was prepared by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), under the direction of 

John J. Conti (john.conti@eia.gov, 202/586-2222), Assistant Administrator of Energy Analysis; Paul D. Holtberg (paul.holtberg@

eia.gov, 202/586-1284), Team Leader, Analysis Integration Team, Office of Integrated and International Energy Analysis; Joseph A. 

Beamon (joseph.beamon@eia.gov, 202/586-2025), Director, Office of Electricity, Coal, Nuclear, and Renewables Analysis; Sam A. 

Napolitano (sam.napolitano@eia.gov, 202/586-0687), Director, Office of Integrated and International Energy Analysis; A. Michael 

Schaal (michael.schaal@eia.gov, 202/586-5590), Director, Office of Petroleum, Natural Gas, and Biofuels Analysis; and James T. 

Turnure (james.turnure@eia.gov, 202/586-1762), Director, Office of Energy Consumption and Efficiency Analysis.

Complimentary copies are available to certain groups, such as public and academic libraries; Federal, State, local, and foreign 

governments; EIA survey respondents; and the media. For further information and answers to questions, contact:

Office of Communications, EI-40

Forrestal Building, Room 1E-210

1000 Independence Avenue, S.W.

Washington, DC 20585

Telephone: 202/586-8800 Fax: 202/586-0727

(24-hour automated information line) Website: www.eia.gov

E-mail: infoctr@eia.gov

Specific questions about the information in this report may be directed to:

General questions ..................................................... Paul Holtberg (paul.holtberg@eia.gov, 202-586-1284)

National Energy Modeling System ....................... Dan Skelly (daniel.skelly@eia.gov, 202-586-2222)

Executive summary .................................................. Paul Holtberg (paul.holtberg@eia.gov, 202/586-1284)

Economic activity ...................................................... Kay Smith (kay.smith@eia.gov, 202/586-1132)

World oil prices ......................................................... William Brown (william.brown@eia.gov, 202/586-8181)

International oil production .................................... James O’Sullivan (james.osullivan@eia.gov, 202/586-2728)

International oil demand ......................................... Linda E. Doman (linda.doman@eia.gov, 202/586-1041)

Residential demand .................................................. Owen Comstock (owen.comstock@eia.gov, 202/586-4752)

Commercial demand ................................................ Kevin Jarzomski (kevin.jarzomski@eia.gov, 202/586-3208)

Industrial demand ..................................................... Kelly Perl (eia-oeceaindustrialteam@eia.gov, 202/586-1743)

Transportation demand .......................................... John Maples (john.maples@eia.gov, 202/586-1757)

Electricity generation, capacity ............................. Jeff Jones (jeffrey.jones@eia.gov, 202/586-2038)

Electricity generation, emissions .......................... Michael Leff (michael.leff@eia.gov, 202/586-1297)

Electricity prices ........................................................ Lori Aniti (lori.aniti@eia.gov, 202/586-2867)

Nuclear energy .......................................................... Laura Martin (laura.martin@eia.gov, 202/586-1494)

Renewable energy .................................................... Chris Namovicz (chris.namovicz@eia.gov, 202/586-7120)

Oil and natural gas production .............................. Philip Budzik (philip.budzik@eia.gov, 202/586-2847)

Wholesale natural gas markets ............................ Katherine Teller (katherine.teller@eia.gov, 202/586-6201)

Oil refining and markets .......................................... Arup Malik (arup.malik@eia.gov, 202/586-7713)

Ethanol and biodiesel ............................................... Mac Statton (mac.statton@eia.gov, 202/586-7105)

Coal supply and prices ............................................ Michael Mellish (michael.mellish@eia.gov, 202/586-2136)

Carbon dioxide emissions ....................................... Perry Lindstrom (perry.lindstrom@eia.gov, 202/586-0934)

The AEO2013 is available on the EIA website at www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo. Assumptions underlying the projections, tables of 

regional results, and other detailed results will also be available, at www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/assumptions. Model documentation 

reports for the National Energy Modeling System are available at website www.eia.gov/analysis/model-documentation.cfm and 

will be updated for the AEO2013 during 2013.

Other contributors to the report include Michelle Adams, Vipin Arora, Joseph Ayoub, Justine Barden, Bruce Bawks, Joseph 

Benneche, Erin Boedecker, Gwendolyn Bredehoeft, Nicholas Chase, Michael Cole, Jim Diefenderfer, Robert Eynon, Laurie Falter, 

Mindi Farber-DeAnda, Patrick Farace, Adrian Geagla, Susan Grissom, Peter Gross, James Hewlett, Susan Hicks, Sean Hill, Behjat 

Hojjati, Patricia Hutchins, Ayaka Jones, Jim Joosten, Diane Kearney, Paul Kondis, Angelina LaRose, Thomas Lee, Tanc Lidderdale, 

Vishakh Mantri, Elizabeth May, Carrie Milton, Paul Otis, Stefanie Palumbo, David Peterson, Chetha Phang, John Powell, Marie 

Rinkoski Spangler, Mark Schipper, Elizabeth Sendich, Nancy Slater-Thompson, Robert Smith, John Staub, Russell Tarver, Dana 

Van Wagener, and Steven Wade.
Annual Energy Outlook 2013

With Projections to 2040

April 2013

U.S. Energy Information Administration

Office of Integrated and International Energy Analysis

U.S. Department of Energy

Washington, DC 20585

This report was prepared by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the statistical and 

analytical agency within the U.S. Department of Energy. By law, EIA’s data, analyses, and forecasts 

are independent of approval by any other officer or employee of the United States Government. The 

views in this report therefore should not be construed as representing those of the Department of 

Energy or other Federal agencies.

This publication is on the WEB at:

www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo
ii U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013

Projections by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) are not statements of what will happen but of what 

might happen, given the assumptions and methodologies used for any particular scenario. The Annual Energy Outlook 2013 

(AEO2013) Reference case projection is a business-as-usual trend estimate, given known technology and technological and 

demographic trends. EIA explores the impacts of alternative assumptions in other scenarios with different macroeconomic 

growth rates, world oil prices, and rates of technology progress. The main cases in AEO2013 generally assume that current 

laws and regulations are maintained throughout the projections. Thus, the projections provide policy-neutral baselines 

that can be used to analyze policy initiatives.

While energy markets are complex, energy models are simplified representations of energy production and consumption, 

regulations, and producer and consumer behavior. Projections are highly dependent on the data, methodologies, model 

structures, and assumptions used in their development. Behavioral characteristics are indicative of real-world tendencies 

rather than representations of specific outcomes.

Energy market projections are subject to much uncertainty. Many of the events that shape energy markets are random and 

cannot be anticipated. In addition, future developments in technologies, demographics, and resources cannot be foreseen 

with certainty. Many key uncertainties in the AEO2013 projections are addressed through alternative cases.

EIA has endeavored to make these projections as objective, reliable, and useful as possible; however, they should serve as 

an adjunct to, not a substitute for, a complete and focused analysis of public policy initiatives.

Preface

The Annual Energy Outlook 2013 (AEO2013), prepared by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), presents long-term 

projections of energy supply, demand, and prices through 2040, based on results from EIA’s National Energy Modeling System. EIA 

published an “early release” version of the AEO2013 Reference case in December 2012.

The report begins with an “Executive summary” that highlights key aspects of the projections. It is followed by a “Legislation and 

regulations” section that discusses evolving legislative and regulatory issues, including a summary of recently enacted legislation 

and regulations, such as: Updated handling of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) National Emissions Standards for 

Hazardous Air Pollutants for industrial boilers and process heaters [1]; New light-duty vehicle (LDV) greenhouse gas (GHG) and 

corporate average fuel economy (CAFE) standards for model years 2017 to 2025 [2]; Reinstatement of the Clean Air Interstate 

Rule (CAIR) [3] after the court’s announcement of intent to vacate the Cross-State Air Pollution Rule (CSAPR) [4]; and Modeling 

of California’s Assembly Bill 32, the Global Warming Solutions Act (AB 32) [5], which allows for representation of a cap-and-trade 

program developed as part of California’s GHG reduction goals for 2020.

The “Issues in focus” section contains discussions of selected energy topics, including a discussion of the results in two cases 

that adopt different assumptions about the future course of existing policies, with one case assuming the elimination of sunset 

provisions in existing policies and the other case assuming the elimination of the sunset provisions and the extension of a selected 

group of existing public policies—CAFE standards, appliance standards, and production tax credits. Other discussions include: oil 

price and production trends in AEO2013; U.S. reliance on imported liquids under a range of cases; competition between coal and 

natural gas in electric power generation; high and low nuclear scenarios through 2040; and the impact of growth in natural gas 

liquids production.

The “Market trends” section summarizes the projections for energy markets. The analysis in AEO2013 focuses primarily on a 

Reference case, Low and High Economic Growth cases, and Low and High Oil Price cases. Results from a number of other alternative 

cases also are presented, illustrating uncertainties associated with the Reference case projections for energy demand, supply, 

and prices. Complete tables for the five primary cases are provided in Appendixes A through C. Major results from many of the 

alternative cases are provided in Appendix D. Complete tables for all the alternative cases are available on EIA’s website in a table 

browser at http://www.eia.gov/oiaf/aeo/tablebrowser.

AEO2013 projections are based generally on federal, state, and local laws and regulations in effect as of the end of September 

2012. The potential impacts of pending or proposed legislation, regulations, and standards (and sections of existing legislation that 

require implementing regulations or funds that have not been appropriated) are not reflected in the projections. In certain situations, 

however, where it is clear that a law or regulation will take effect shortly after the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) is completed, it may 

be considered in the projection.

AEO2013 is published in accordance with Section 205c of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Organization Act of 1977 (Public 

Law 95-91), which requires the EIA Administrator to prepare annual reports on trends and projections for energy use and supply.
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013 iii

Updated Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Reference case (April 2013)

The AEO2013 Reference case included as part of this complete report, released in April 2013, was updated from the AEO2012 

Reference case released in June 2012. The Reference case was updated to reflect new legislation or regulation enacted since that 

time or to incorporate modeling changes. Major changes made in the Reference case include:

•	 Extension of the projection period through 2040, an additional five years beyond AEO2012.

•	 Adoption of a new Liquid Fuels Market Module (LFMM) in place of the Petroleum Market Module used in earlier AEOs provides 

for more granular and integrated modeling of petroleum refineries and all other types of current and potential future liquid fuels 

production technologies. This allows more direct analysis and modeling of the regional supply and demand effects involving 

crude oil and other feedstocks, current and future processes, and marketing to consumers.

•	 A shift to the use of Brent spot price as the reference oil price. AEO2013 also presents the average West Texas Intermediate spot 

price of light, low-sulfur crude oil delivered in Cushing, Oklahoma, and includes the U.S. annual average refiners’ acquisition cost 

of imported crude oil, which is more representative of the average cost of all crude oils used by domestic refiners.

•	 A shift from using regional natural gas wellhead prices to using representative regional natural gas spot prices as the basis of the 

natural gas supply price. Due to this change, the methodology for estimating the Henry Hub price was revised.

•	 Updated handling of data on flex-fuel vehicles (FFVs) to better reflect consumer preferences and industry response. FFVs are 

necessary to meet the renewable fuels standard, but the phasing out of CAFE credits for their sale and limited demand from 

consumers reduce their market penetration.

•	 A revised outlook for industrial production to reflect the impacts of increased shale gas production and lower natural gas prices, 

which result in faster growth for industrial production and energy consumption. The industries affected include, in particular, 

bulk chemicals and primary metals.

•	 Incorporation of a new aluminum process flow model in the industrial sector, which allows for diffusion of technologies through 

choices made among known commercial and emerging technologies based on relative capital costs and fuel expenditures and 

provides for a more realistic representation of the evolution of energy consumption than in previous AEOs.

•	 An enhanced industrial chemical model, in several respects: the baseline liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) feedstock data have 

been aligned with 2006 survey data; use of an updated propane-pricing mechanism that reflects natural gas price influences in 

order to allow for price competition between LPG feedstock and petroleum-based (naphtha) feedstock; and specific accounting 

in the Industrial Demand Model for propylene supplied by the LFMM.

•	 Updated handling of the EPA’s National Emissions Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants for industrial boilers and process 

heaters to address the maximum degree of emissions reduction using maximum achievable control technology. An industrial 

capital expenditure and fuel price adjustment for coal and residual fuel has been applied to reflect risk perception about the use 

of those fuels relative to natural gas.

•	 Augmentation of the construction and mining models in the Industrial Demand Model to better reflect AEO2013 assumptions 

regarding energy efficiencies in off-road vehicles and buildings, as well as the productivity of coal, oil, and natural gas extraction.

•	 Adoption of final model year 2017 to 2025 GHG emissions and CAFE standards for LDVs, which increases the projected fuel 

economy of new LDVs to 47.3 mpg in 2025.

•	 Updated handling of the representation of purchase decisions for alternative fuels for heavy-duty vehicles. Market factors used 

to calculate the relative cost of alternative-fuel vehicles, specifically natural gas, now represent first buyer-user behavior and 

slightly longer breakeven payback periods, significantly increasing the demand for natural gas fuel in heavy trucks.

•	 Updated modeling of LNG export potential, which includes a rudimentary assessment of pricing of natural gas in international 

markets.

•	 Updated power generation unit costs that capture recent cost declines for some renewable technologies, which tend to lead to 

greater use of renewable generation, particularly solar technologies.

•	 Reinstatement of CAIR after the court’s announcement of intent to vacate CSAPR.

•	 Modeling of California’s AB 32, that allows for representation of a cap-and-trade program developed as part of California’s GHG 

reduction goals for 2020. The coordinated regulations include an enforceable GHG cap that will decline over time. AEO2013

reflects all covered sectors, including emissions offsets and allowance allocations.

•	 Incorporation of the California Low Carbon Fuel Standard, which requires fuel producers and importers who sell motor gasoline 

or diesel fuel in California to reduce the carbon intensity of those fuels by 10 percent between 2012 and 2020 through the 

increased sale of alternative low-carbon fuels.

Future analyses using the AEO2013 Reference case will start from the version of the Reference case released with this complete report.
iv U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013

1. U.S. Government Printing Office, “Clean Air Act,” 42 U.S.C. 7412 (Washington, DC: 2011), http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/

USCODE-2011-title42/pdf/USCODE-2011-title42-chap85-subchapI-partA.pdf.

2. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and Department of Transportation, National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, 

“2017 and Later Model Year Light-Duty Vehicle Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Corporate Average Fuel Economy Standards; 

Final Rule,” Federal Register, Vol. 77, No. 199 (Washington, DC: October 15, 2012), https://www.federalregister.gov/

articles/2012/10/15/2012-21972/2017-and-later-model-year-light-duty-vehicle-greenhouse-gas-emissions-and-corporateaverage-fuel.

3. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, “Clean Air Interstate Rule (CAIR)” (Washington, DC: December 19, 2012), http://www.

epa.gov/cair/index.html#older.

4. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, “Fact Sheet: The Cross-State Air Pollution Rule: Reducing the Transport of Fine Particulate 

Matter and Ozone” (Washington, DC: July 2011), http://www.epa.gov/airtransport/pdfs/CSAPRFactsheet.pdf.

5. California Legislative Information, “Assembly Bill No. 32: California Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006” (Sacramento, CA: 

September 27, 2006), http://www.leginfo.ca.gov/pub/05-06/bill/asm/ab_0001-0050/ab_32_bill_20060927_chaptered.pdf.

Endnotes for Preface

Links current as of March 2013
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013 v

Contents

Preface............................................................................................................................................................................................................... ii

Updated Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Reference case (April 2013).......................................................................................................... iii

Executive summary.......................................................................................................................................................................................... 1

Legislation and regulations............................................................................................................................................................................. 7

Introduction............................................................................................................................................................................................. 8

1. Greenhouse gas emissions and corporate average fuel economy standards for 2017 and later model year 

light-duty vehicles............................................................................................................................................................................ 8

2. Recent rulings on the Cross-State Air Pollution Rule and the Clean Air Interstate Rule................................................... 10

3.	Nuclear waste disposal and the Waste Confidence Rule ........................................................................................................ 10

4. Maximum Achievable Control Technology for industrial boilers............................................................................................. 12

5. State renewable energy requirements and goals: Update through 2012.............................................................................. 13

6. California Assembly Bill 32: Emissions cap-and-trade as part of the Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006.............. 18

7. California low carbon fuel standard ............................................................................................................................................. 18

Issues in focus .................................................................................................................................................................................................. 23

Introduction............................................................................................................................................................................................. 24

1. No Sunset and Extended Policies cases.................................................................................................................................... 24

2. Oil price and production trends in AEO2013.............................................................................................................................. 30

3. U.S. reliance on imported liquid fuels in alternative scenarios ............................................................................................... 32

4. Competition between coal and natural gas in the electric power sector............................................................................... 39

5. Nuclear power in AEO2013 ........................................................................................................................................................... 44

6. Effect of natural gas liquids growth.............................................................................................................................................. 48

Market trends................................................................................................................................................................................................... 55

Trends in economic activity.................................................................................................................................................................. 56

Energy trends in the economy............................................................................................................................................................. 57

International energy............................................................................................................................................................................... 58

U.S. energy demand ............................................................................................................................................................................. 59

Residential sector energy demand..................................................................................................................................................... 61

Commercial sector energy demand ................................................................................................................................................... 63

Industrial sector energy demand ........................................................................................................................................................ 65

Transportation sector energy demand............................................................................................................................................... 68

Electricity demand................................................................................................................................................................................. 71

Electricity generation ............................................................................................................................................................................ 72

Electricity sales ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 73

Electricity capacity................................................................................................................................................................................. 74

Renewable generation.......................................................................................................................................................................... 75

Natural gas consumption...................................................................................................................................................................... 76

Natural gas prices.................................................................................................................................................................................. 77

Natural gas production.......................................................................................................................................................................... 78

Natural gas supply................................................................................................................................................................................. 79

Petroleum and other liquids consumption......................................................................................................................................... 80

Petroleum and other liquids supply .................................................................................................................................................... 81

Coal production...................................................................................................................................................................................... 85

Emissions from energy use ................................................................................................................................................................. 87

Comparison with other projections .............................................................................................................................................................. 91

1. Economic growth............................................................................................................................................................................. 92

2. Oil prices........................................................................................................................................................................................... 93

3. Total energy consumption.............................................................................................................................................................. 93

4. Electricity .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 95

5. Natural gas ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 100

6. Liquid fuels ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 103

7. Coal.................................................................................................................................................................................................... 103

List of acronyms ............................................................................................................................................................................................... 111

Notes and sources ........................................................................................................................................................................................... 112
vi U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013

Contents

Tables

Legislation and regulations

1.	NHTSA projected average fleet-wide CAFE compliance levels for passenger cars and light-duty trucks,

model years 2017-2025, based on the model year 2010 baseline fleet ............................................................................... 9

2. AEO2013 projected average fleet-wide CAFE compliance levels for passenger cars and light-duty trucks,

model years 2017-2025 ................................................................................................................................................................. 10

3. Renewable portfolio standards in the 30 states and District of Columbia with current mandates ................................... 14

Issues in focus

4. Key analyses from “Issues in focus” in recent AEOs................................................................................................................ 24

5. Differences in crude oil and natural gas assumptions across three cases .......................................................................... 34

6. Differences in transportation demand assumptions across three cases.............................................................................. 37

7.	Proposed additions of U.S. ethylene production capacity, 2013-2020.................................................................................. 50

Comparison with other projections

8.	Comparisons of average annual economic growth projections, 2011-2040......................................................................... 92

9.	Comparisons of oil price projections, 2025, 2035, and 2040.................................................................................................. 93

10.	Comparisons of energy consumption by sector projections, 2025, 2035, and 2040.......................................................... 94

11.	Comparisons of electricity projections, 2025, 2035, and 2040............................................................................................... 96

12.	Comparisons of natural gas projections, 2025, 2035, and 2040............................................................................................ 100

13.	Comparisons of liquids projections, 2025, 2035, and 2040 .................................................................................................... 104

14.	Comparisons of coal projections, 2025, 2035, and 2040 ........................................................................................................ 106

Appendix E

E1. Summary of the AEO2013 cases ................................................................................................................................................. 215

Appendixes

A. Reference case................................................................................................................................................................................ 121

B. Economic growth case comparisons........................................................................................................................................... 161

C. Price case comparisons................................................................................................................................................................. 171

D. Results from side cases................................................................................................................................................................. 186

E. NEMS overview and brief description of cases ......................................................................................................................... 209

	 F.	Regional Maps................................................................................................................................................................................. 225

G. Conversion factors .......................................................................................................................................................................... 233

Figures

Executive summary

	 1.	Net import share of U.S. liquids supply in two cases, 1970-2040.......................................................................................... 2

	 2.	Total U.S. natural gas production, consumption, and net imports in the Reference case, 1990-2040 ........................... 3

	 3.	Electricity generation from coal and natural gas in two cases, 2008-2040 ......................................................................... 4

	 4.	Coal and natural gas use in the electric power sector in three cases, 2011, 2025, and 2040.......................................... 4

	 5.	Energy-related carbon dioxide emissions in four cases, 2000-2040 .................................................................................... 4

	 6.	Transportation energy consumption by fuel, 1990-2040 ......................................................................................................... 5

	 7.	U.S. dry natural gas consumption by sector, 2005-2040......................................................................................................... 5

	 8.	Renewable energy share of U.S. electricity generation in five cases, 2000-2040.............................................................. 6

Legislation and regulations

	 9.	Projected average passenger car CAFE compliance targets by vehicle footprint, model years 2017-2025.................. 9

	 10.	Projected average light-duty truck CAFE compliance targets by vehicle footprint, model years 2017-2025 ................. 9

11. States covered by CAIR limits on emissions of sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxides............................................................ 11

12. Total renewable generation required for combined state renewable portfolio standards and projected 

total achieved, 2012-2040.............................................................................................................................................................. 13

Issues in focus

	 13.	Total energy consumption in three cases, 2005-2040 ............................................................................................................. 26

	 14.	Consumption of petroleum and other liquids for transportation in three cases, 2005-2040 ............................................. 27

	 15.	Renewable electricity generation in three cases, 2005-2040................................................................................................. 27

	 16.	Renewable electricity generation in two cases, 2012-2040 .................................................................................................... 28

	 17.	Electricity generation from natural gas in three cases, 2005-2040 ....................................................................................... 29
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013 vii

Contents

	 18.	Energy-related carbon dioxide emissions in three cases, 2005-2040 .................................................................................. 29

	 19.	Average delivered prices for natural gas in three cases, 2005-2040.................................................................................... 30

	 20.	Average electricity prices in three cases, 2005-2040 .............................................................................................................. 30

	 21.	Annual average spot price for Brent crude oil in three cases, 1990-2040 ........................................................................... 31

	 22.	World petroleum and other liquids supply in three cases, 1990-2040 .................................................................................. 31

	 23.	World petroleum and other liquids supply by source in the Reference case, 1990-2040.................................................. 31

	 24.	Net import share of liquid fuels in five cases, 2005-2040........................................................................................................ 37

	 25.	U.S. carbon dioxide emissions in five cases, 2005-2040........................................................................................................ 39

	 26.	Average delivered fuel prices to electric power plants in the Reference case, 2008-2040............................................... 40

	 27.	Ratio of average per megawatthour fuel costs for natural gas combined-cycle plants to coal-fired

steam turbines in five cases, 2008-2040.................................................................................................................................... 41

	 28.	Power sector electricity generation capacity by fuel in five cases, 2011 and 2025 ............................................................ 41

	 29.	Power sector electricity generation capacity by fuel in five cases, 2011 and 2040 ............................................................ 41

	 30.	Power sector electricity generation by fuel in five cases, 2011 and 2025............................................................................. 42

	 31.	Power sector electricity generation by fuel in five cases, 2011 and 2040 ............................................................................ 42

	 32.	Power sector electricity generation from coal and natural gas in two cases, 2008-2040 ................................................. 43

	 33.	Ratio of average per megawatthour fuel costs for natural gas combined-cycle plants to coal-fired

steam turbines in the SERC southeast subregion in five cases, 2008-2040....................................................................... 43

	 34.	Ratio of average per megawatthour fuel costs for natural gas combined-cycle plants to coal-fired

steam turbines in the RFC west subregion in five cases, 2008-2040 ................................................................................... 44

	 35.	Nuclear capacity additions in five cases, 2011-2040................................................................................................................ 47

	 36.	Electricity generation from natural gas in three cases, 2005-2040 ....................................................................................... 47

	 37.	Carbon dioxide emissions from electricity generation in three cases, 2005-2040 ............................................................. 48

	 38.	Levelized costs of nuclear electricity generation in two cases, 2025.................................................................................... 48

	 39.	U.S. production of natural gas liquids by type, 2005-2012...................................................................................................... 49

	 40.	U.S. imports and exports of propane/propylene, 2005-2012 .................................................................................................. 49

	 41.	U.S. Brent crude oil and Henry Hub natural gas spot market prices in three cases, 2005-2040..................................... 50

	 42.	U.S. production of dry natural gas and natural gas plant liquids in three cases, 2005-2040............................................ 50

	 43.	U.S. net exports of liquefied petroleum gases in three cases, 2011-2040............................................................................ 51

Market trends

	 44.	Average annual growth rates of real GDP, labor force, and productivity in three cases, 2011-2040............................... 56

	 45.	Average annual growth rates for real output and its major components in three cases, 2011-2040............................... 56

	 46.	Sectoral composition of industrial shipments, annual growth rates in three cases, 2011-2040 ....................................... 57

	 47.	Energy end-use expenditures as a share of gross domestic product, 1970-2040.............................................................. 57

	 48.	Energy end-use expenditures as a share of gross output, 1987-2040.................................................................................. 57

	 49.	Brent crude oil spot prices in three cases, 1990-2040............................................................................................................. 58

	 50.	World petroleum and other liquids consumption by region in three cases, 2011 and 2040 .............................................. 58

	 51.	World production of liquids from biomass, coal, and natural gas in three cases, 2011 and 2040.................................... 59

	 52.	Energy use per capita and per dollar of gross domestic product, 1980-2040 ..................................................................... 59

	 53.	Primary energy use by end-use sector, 2011-2040 .................................................................................................................. 60

	 54.	Primary energy use by fuel, 1980-2040...................................................................................................................................... 60

	 55.	Residential delivered energy intensity in four cases, 2005-2040........................................................................................... 61

	 56.	Change in residential electricity consumption for selected end uses in the Reference case, 2011-2040 ...................... 61

	 57.	Change in residential delivered energy consumption for selected end uses in four cases, 2011-2040.......................... 62

	 58.	Residential sector adoption of renewable energy technologies in two cases, 2005-2040................................................ 62

	 59.	Commercial delivered energy intensity in four cases, 2005-2040......................................................................................... 63

	 60.	Energy intensity of selected commercial electric end uses, 2011 and 2040........................................................................ 63

	 61.	Efficiency gains for selected commercial equipment in three cases, 2040.......................................................................... 64

	 62.	Additions to electricity generation capacity in the commercial sector in two cases, 2011-2040 ...................................... 64

	 63.	Industrial delivered energy consumption by application, 2011-2040 ..................................................................................... 65

	 64.	Industrial energy consumption by fuel, 2011, 2025, and 2040................................................................................................ 65

	 65.	Cumulative growth in value of shipments from energy-intensive industries in three cases, 2011-2040 ......................... 66

	 66.	Change in delivered energy consumption for energy-intensive industries in three cases, 2011-2040............................ 66

	 67.	Cumulative growth in value of shipments from energy-intensive industries, 2011-2040, 2011-2025,

and 2025-2040................................................................................................................................................................................. 67

	 68.	Cumulative growth in value of shipments from non-energy-intensive industries in three cases, 2011-2040................. 67

	 69.	Change in delivered energy consumption for non-energy-intensive industries in three cases, 2011-2040 ................... 68

	 70.	Delivered energy consumption for transportation by mode, 2011 and 2040 ....................................................................... 68

	 71.	Average fuel economy of new light-duty vehicles, 1980-2040 ............................................................................................... 69

	 72.	Vehicle miles traveled per licensed driver, 1970-2040 ............................................................................................................. 69

	 73.	Sales of light-duty vehicles using non-gasoline technologies by type, 2011, 2025, and 2040 ......................................... 70
viii U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013

Contents

	 74.	Natural gas consumption in the transportation sector, 1995-2040 ........................................................................................ 70

	 75.	U.S. electricity demand growth, 1950-2040............................................................................................................................... 71

	 76.	Electricity generation by fuel, 2011, 2025, and 2040................................................................................................................ 71

	 77.	Electricity generation capacity additions by fuel type, including combined heat and power, 2012-2040........................ 72

	 78.	Additions to electricity generating capacity, 1985-2040 .......................................................................................................... 72

	 79.	Electricity sales and power sector generating capacity, 1949-2040...................................................................................... 73

	 80.	Levelized electricity costs for new power plants, excluding subsidies, 2020 and 2040..................................................... 73

	 81.	Electricity generating capacity at U.S. nuclear power plants in three cases, 2011, 2025, and 2040............................... 74

	 82.	Renewable electricity generation capacity by energy source, including end-use capacity, 2011-2040.......................... 74

	 83.	Renewable electricity generation by type, including end-use generation, 2008-2040 ..................................................... 75

	 84.	Regional nonhydropower renewable electricity generation, including end-use generation, 2011 and 2040 ................. 75

	 85.	Natural gas consumption by sector, 1990-2040........................................................................................................................ 76

	 86.	Annual average Henry Hub spot natural gas prices, 1990-2040 ........................................................................................... 76

	 87.	Ratio of Brent crude oil price to Henry Hub spot natural gas price in energy-equivalent terms, 1990-2040................. 77

	 88.	Annual average Henry Hub spot prices for natural gas in five cases, 1990-2040.............................................................. 77

	 89.	Total U.S. natural gas production, consumption, and net imports, 1990-2040.................................................................... 78

	 90.	Total U.S. natural gas production in three oil price cases, 1990-2040.................................................................................. 78

	 91.	Natural gas production by source, 1990-2040........................................................................................................................... 79

	 92.	U.S. net imports of natural gas by source, 1990-2040............................................................................................................. 79

	 93.	Consumption of petroleum and other liquids by sector, 1990-2040 ...................................................................................... 80

	 94.	U.S. production of petroleum and other liquids by source, 2011-2040.................................................................................. 80

	 95.	Total U.S. crude oil production in three resource cases, 1990-2040 .................................................................................... 81

	 96.	Domestic crude oil production by source, 2000-2040.............................................................................................................. 81

	 97.	Total U.S. tight oil production by geologic formation, 2008-2040........................................................................................... 82

	 98.	API gravity of U.S. domestic and imported crude oil supplies, 1990-2040 .......................................................................... 82

	 99.	Net import share of U.S. petroleum and other liquids consumption in three oil price cases, 1990-2040....................... 83

	 100.	EISA2007 RFS credits earned in selected years, 2011-2040................................................................................................. 83

	 101.	Consumption of advanced renewable fuels, 2011-2040 .......................................................................................................... 84

	 102.	U.S. motor gasoline and diesel fuel consumption, 2000-2040............................................................................................... 84

	 103.	U.S. refinery gasoline-to-diesel production ratio and crack spread, 2008-2040................................................................. 85

	 104.	Coal production by region, 1970-2040 ........................................................................................................................................ 85

	 105.	U.S. total coal production in six cases, 2011, 2020, and 2040 ............................................................................................... 86

	 106.	Average annual minemouth coal prices by region, 1990-2040 .............................................................................................. 86

	 107.	Cumulative coal-fired generating capacity additions and environmental retrofits in two cases, 2012-2040.................. 87

	 108.	U.S. energy-related carbon dioxide emissions by sector and fuel, 2005 and 2040............................................................ 87

	 109.	Sulfur dioxide emissions from electricity generation, 1990-2040 .......................................................................................... 88

	 110.	Nitrogen oxides emissions from electricity generation, 1990-2040....................................................................................... 88

	 111.	Energy-related carbon dioxide emissions in two cases with three levels of emissions fees, 2000-2040....................... 89

	 112.	Natural gas-fired electricity generation in six CO2 fee cases, 2000-2040............................................................................ 89

Comparison with other projections

	 F1.	United States Census Divisions ................................................................................................................................................... 225

	 F2.	Electricity market module regions ................................................................................................................................................ 227

	 F3.	Liquid fuels market module regions ............................................................................................................................................. 228

	 F4.	Oil and gas supply model regions ................................................................................................................................................ 229

	 F5.	Natural gas transmission and distribution model regions ........................................................................................................ 230

	 F6.	Coal supply regions ........................................................................................................................................................................ 231

	 F7.	Coal demand regions ..................................................................................................................................................................... 232
Executive summary
2 U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013

Executive summary

The projections in the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s Annual Energy Outlook 2013 (AEO2013) focus on the factors that 

shape the U.S. energy system over the long term. Under the assumption that current laws and regulations remain unchanged 

throughout the projections, the AEO2013 Reference case provides a basis for examination and discussion of energy production, 

consumption, technology, and market trends and the direction they may take in the future. AEO2013 also includes alternative 

cases (see Appendix E, Table E1), which explore important areas of uncertainty for markets, technologies, and policies in the U.S. 

energy economy. Many of the implications of the alternative cases are discussed in the Issues in focus section of AEO2013.

Key results highlighted in the AEO2013 Reference and alternative cases include:

•	 Continued strong growth in domestic crude oil production over the next decade—largely as a result of rising production from 

tight formations—and increased domestic production of natural gas;

•	 The potential for even stronger growth in domestic crude oil production under alternative conditions;

•	 Evolving natural gas markets that spur increased use of natural gas for electric power generation and transportation and an 

expanding natural gas export market;

•	 A decline in motor gasoline consumption over the projection period, reflecting the effects of more stringent corporate average 

fuel economy (CAFE) standards, as well as growth in diesel fuel consumption and increased use of natural gas to power heavyduty vehicles; and

•	 Low electricity demand growth, and continued increases in electricity generation capacity fueled by natural gas and renewable 

energy, which when combined with environmental regulations put pressure on coal use in the electric power sector. In some 

cases, coal’s share of total electricity generation falls below the natural gas share through the end of the projection period.

Oil production, particularly from tight oil plays, rises over the next decade, leading to a reduction in 

net import dependence

Crude oil production has increased since 2008, reversing a decline that began in 1986. From 5.0 million barrels per day in 

2008, U.S. crude oil production increased to 6.5 million barrels per day in 2012. Improvements in advanced crude oil production 

technologies continues to lift domestic supply, with domestic production of crude oil increasing in the Reference case before 

declining gradually beginning in 2020 for the remainder of the projection period. The projected growth results largely from a 

significant increase in onshore crude oil production, particularly from shale and other tight formations, which has been spurred 

by technological advances and relatively high oil prices. Tight oil development is still at an early stage, and the outlook is highly 

uncertain. In some of the AEO2013 alternative cases, tight oil production and total U.S. crude oil production are significantly above 

their levels in the Reference case.

The net import share of U.S. petroleum and other liquids consumption (including crude oil, petroleum liquids, and liquids derived 

from nonpetroleum sources) grew steadily from the mid-1980s to 2005 but has fallen in every year since then (Figure 1). In 

the Reference case, U.S. net imports of petroleum and other liquids decline through 2019, while still providing approximately 

one-third of total U.S. supply. The net import share of U.S. petroleum and other liquids consumption continues to decline in the 

Reference case, falling to 34 percent in 2019 before increasing to 37 percent in 2040.

The U.S. could become a net exporter of liquid fuels under 

certain conditions. An article in the Issues in focus section 

considers four cases that examine the impacts of various 

assumptions about U.S. dependence on imported liquids. 

Two cases (Low Oil and Gas Resource and High Oil and Gas 

Resource) vary only the supply assumptions, and two cases 

(Low/No Net Imports and High Net Imports) vary both the 

supply and demand assumptions. The different assumptions 

in the four cases generate wide variation from the liquid fuels 

import dependence values in the AEO2013 Reference case. 

In the Low/No Net Imports case, the United States ends 

its reliance on net imports of liquid fuels in the mid-2030s, 

with net exports rising to 8 percent of total U.S. liquid fuel 

production in 2040. In contrast, in the High Net Imports 

case, net petroleum import dependence is above 44 percent 

in 2040, which is higher than the Reference case level of 37 

percent but still well below the 2005 level of 60 percent.

While other combinations of assumptions or unforeseen 

technology breakthroughs might produce a comparable 

outcome, the assumptions in the Low/No Imports case 

illustrate the magnitude and type of changes that would be 

0

5

10

15

20

25

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

History 2005 2011 Projections

60% 45% 37% 

Net exports

(8% in 2040)

Reference

Low/No Net Imports

Consumption

Domestic supply

Net imports

Figure 1. Net import share of U.S. liquids supply in 

two cases, 1970-2040 (million barrels per day)
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013 3

Executive summary

required for the United States to end its reliance on net imports of liquid fuels, which began after World War II and has continued to 

the present day. Some of the assumptions in the Low/No Net Imports case, such as increased fuel economy for light-duty vehicles 

(LDVs) after 2025 and wider access to offshore resources, could be influenced by possible future energy policies. However, other 

assumptions in this case, such as the greater availability of onshore technically recoverable oil and natural gas resources, depend 

on geological outcomes that cannot be influenced by policy measures. In addition, economic trends, consumer preferences and 

behaviors, and technological factors also may be unaffected, or only modestly affected, by policy measures.

In the High Oil and Gas Resource case, changes due to the supply assumptions alone cause net import dependence to decline 

to 7 percent in 2040, with U.S. crude oil production rising to 10.2 million barrels per day in 2040, or 4.1 million barrels per day 

above the Reference case level. Tight oil production accounts for more than 77 percent (or 3.2 million barrels per day) of the 

difference in production between the two cases. Production of natural gas plant liquids in the United States also exceeds the 

Reference case level.

One of the most uncertain aspects of this analysis is the potential effect of different scenarios on the global market for liquid fuels, 

which is highly integrated. Strategic choices made by leading oil-exporting countries could result in U.S. price and quantity changes 

that differ significantly from those presented here. Moreover, regardless of how much the United States reduces its reliance on 

imported liquids, consumer prices will not be insulated from global oil prices if current policies and regulations remain in effect and 

world markets for delivery continue to be competitive.

The United States becomes a net exporter of natural gas

U.S. dry natural gas production increases 1.3 percent per year throughout the Reference case projection, outpacing domestic 

consumption by 2019 and spurring net exports of natural gas (Figure 2). Higher volumes of shale gas production are central to 

higher total production volumes and a transition to net exports. As domestic supply has increased in recent years, natural gas 

prices have declined, making the United States a less attractive market for imported natural gas and more attractive for export.

U.S. net exports of natural gas grow to 3.6 trillion cubic feet in 2040 in the Reference case. Most of the projected growth in U.S. 

exports consists of pipeline exports to Mexico, which increase steadily as growing volumes of imported natural gas from the 

United States fill the widening gap between Mexico’s production and consumption. Declining natural gas imports from Canada 

also contribute to the growth in U.S. net exports. Net U.S. imports of natural gas from Canada decline sharply from 2016 to 2022, 

then stabilize somewhat before dropping off again in the final years of the projection, as continued growth in domestic production 

mitigates the need for imports.

Continued low levels of liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports in the projection period, combined with increased U.S. exports of 

domestically sourced LNG, position the United States as a net exporter of LNG by 2016. U.S. exports of domestically sourced LNG 

(excluding exports from the existing Kenai facility in Alaska) begin in 2016 and rise to a level of 1.6 trillion cubic feet per year in 

2027. One-half of the U.S. exports of LNG originate from the Lower 48 states and the other half from Alaska. The prospects for 

exports are highly uncertain, however, depending on many factors that are difficult to gauge, such as the development of new 

production capacity in foreign countries, particularly from deepwater reservoirs, shale gas deposits, and the Arctic. In addition, 

future U.S. exports of LNG depend on a number of other factors, including the speed and extent of price convergence in global 

natural gas markets and the extent to which natural gas competes with liquids in domestic and international markets.

In the High Oil and Gas Resource case, with more optimistic 

resource assumptions, U.S. LNG exports grow to more than 

4 trillion cubic feet in 2040. Most of the additional exports 

originate from the Lower 48 states.

Coal’s share of electric power generation falls over 

the projection period

Although coal is expected to continue its important role in U.S. 

electricity generation, there are many uncertainties that could 

affect future outcomes. Chief among them are the relationship 

between coal and natural gas prices and the potential for 

policies aimed at reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. 

In 2012, natural gas prices were low enough for a few months 

for power companies to run natural gas-fired generation 

plants more economically than coal plants in many areas. 

During those months, coal and natural gas were nearly tied 

in providing the largest share of total electricity generation, 

something that had never happened before. In the Reference 

case, existing coal plants recapture some of the market they 

recently lost to natural gas plants because natural gas prices 

History 2011 Projections

-10

0

10

20

30

40

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Total production

Total consumption

Net	exports,	2040	(12%)

Net	imports,	2011	(8%)

Net imports

Figure 2. Total U.S. natural gas production, 

consumption, and net imports in the Reference case, 

1990-2040 (trillion cubic feet)
4 U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013

Executive summary

rise more rapidly than coal prices. However, the rise in coal-fired generation is not sufficient for coal to maintain its generation 

share, which falls to 35 percent by 2040 as the share of generation from natural gas rises to 30 percent.

In the alternative High Oil and Natural Gas Resource case, with much lower natural gas prices, natural gas supplants coal as the 

top source of electricity generation (Figure 3). In this case, coal accounts for only 27 percent of total generation in 2040, while 

natural gas accounts for 43 percent. However, while natural gas generation in the power sector surpasses coal generation in 2016 

in this case, more coal energy than natural gas energy is used for power generation until 2035 because of the higher average 

thermal efficiency of the natural gas-fired generating units. Coal use for electric power generation falls to 14.7 quadrillion Btu in 

2040 in the High Oil and Natural Gas Resource case (compared with 18.7 quadrillion Btu in the Reference case), while natural 

gas use rises to 15.1 quadrillion Btu in the same year (Figure 4). Natural gas use for electricity generation is 9.7 quadrillion Btu in 

2040 in the Reference case.

Coal’s generation share and the associated carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions could be further reduced if policies aimed at reducing 

GHG emissions were enacted (Figure 5). For example, in the GHG15 case, which assumes a fee on CO2 emissions that starts at 

$15 per metric ton in 2014 and increases by 5 percent per year through 2040, coal’s share of total generation falls to 13 percent in 

2040. Energy-related CO2 emissions also fall sharply in the GHG15 case, to levels that are 10 percent, 15 percent, and 24 percent 

lower than projected in the Reference case in 2020, 2030, and 2040, respectively. In 2040, energy-related CO2 emissions in the 

GHG15 case are 28 percent lower than the 2005 total. In the 

GHG15 case, coal use in the electric power sector falls to only 

6.1 quadrillion Btu in 2040, a decline of about two-thirds from 

the 2011 level. While natural gas use in the electric power 

sector initially displaces coal use in this case, reaching more 

than 10 quadrillion Btu in 2016, it falls to 8.8 quadrillion Btu in 

2040 as growth in renewable and nuclear generation offsets 

natural gas use later in the projection period.

With more efficient light-duty vehicles, motor 

gasoline consumption declines while diesel fuel use 

grows, even as more natural gas is used in heavyduty vehicles

The AEO2013 Reference case incorporates the GHG and CAFE 

standards for LDVs [6] through the 2025 model year. The 

increase in vehicle efficiency reduces LDV energy use from 

16.1 quadrillion Btu in 2011 to 14.0 quadrillion Btu in 2025, 

predominantly motor gasoline (Figure 6). LDV energy use 

continues to decline through 2036, then levels off until 2039 

as growth in population and vehicle miles traveled offsets 

more modest improvement in fuel efficiency.

0 5 10 15 20

2040

2025

2011

2040

2025

2011

2040

2025

2011

Reference

Natural gas

Coal

High Oil and Gas Resource

GHG15

Figure 4. Coal and natural gas use in the electric 

power sector in three cases, 2011, 2025, and 2040 

(quadrillion Btu)

History Projections

0

4,000

4,500

5,000

5,500

6,000

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

High Oil and Gas Resource

Reference

Reference,	$15	fee

High	Resource,	$15	fee

2011

Figure 5. Energy-related carbon dioxide emissions in 

four cases, 2000-2040 (million metric tons)

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

2008 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

2011 Projections

Coal

Natural gas

Reference

High Oil and Gas Resource

Figure 3. Electricity generation from coal and 

natural gas in two cases, 2008-2040 

(billion kilowatthours)
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013 5

Executive summary

Furthermore, the improved economics of natural gas as a fuel for heavy-duty vehicles result in increased use that offsets a portion 

of diesel fuel consumption. The use of petroleum-based diesel fuel is also reduced by growing consumption of diesel produced 

with gas-to-liquids (GTL) technology. Natural gas use in vehicles (including natural gas used in the production of GTL) totals 1.4 

trillion cubic feet in 2040 in the Reference case, displacing 0.7 million barrels per day of other motor fuels [7]. Diesel fuel use 

nonetheless increases at a relatively strong rate, with freight travel demand supported by increasing industrial production.

Natural gas consumption grows in industrial and electric power sectors as domestic production also serves an 

expanding export market

Relatively low natural gas prices, maintained by growing shale gas production, spur increased use in the industrial and electric 

power sectors, particularly over the next decade. In the Reference case, natural gas use in the industrial sector increases by 16 

percent, from 6.8 trillion cubic feet per year in 2011 to 7.8 trillion cubic feet per year in 2025. After 2025, the growth of natural 

gas consumption in the industrial sector slows, while total U.S. consumption continues to grow (Figure 7). This additional growth 

is mostly for use in the electric power sector. Although natural gas continues to capture a growing share of total electricity 

generation, natural gas consumption by power plants does not increase as sharply as generation because new plants are very 

efficient (needing less fuel per unit of power output). The natural gas share of generation rose from 16 percent of generation in 

2000 to 24 percent in 2011 and increases to 27 percent in 2025 and 30 percent in 2040. Natural gas use in the residential and 

commercial sectors remains nearly constant, as increasing end-use demand is balanced by increasing end-use efficiency.

Natural gas consumption also grows in other markets in the Reference case, including heavy-duty freight transportation (trucking) 

and as a feedstock for GTL production of diesel and other fuels. Those uses account for 6 percent of total U.S. natural gas 

consumption in 2040, as compared with almost nothing in 2011.

Natural gas use in the electric power sector grows even more sharply in the High Oil and Natural Gas Resource case, as the natural 

gas share of electricity generation grows to 39 percent, reaching 14.8 trillion cubic feet in 2040, more than 55 percent greater 

than in the Reference case. Industrial sector natural gas consumption growth is also stronger in this case, with growth continuing 

after 2025 and reaching 13.0 trillion cubic feet in 2040 (compared to 10.5 trillion cubic feet in 2040 in the Reference case). Much 

of the industrial growth in the High Oil and Natural Gas Resource case is associated with natural gas use for GTL production and 

increased lease and plant use in natural gas production.

Renewable fuel use grows at a faster rate than fossil fuel use

The share of U.S. electricity generation from renewable energy grows from 13 percent in 2011 to 16 percent in 2040 in the Reference 

case. Electricity generation from solar and, to a lesser extent, wind energy sources grows as their costs decline, making them more 

economical in the later years of the projection. However, the rate of growth in renewable electricity generation is sensitive to several 

factors, including natural gas prices and the possible implementation of policies to reduce GHG emissions. If future natural gas 

prices are lower than projected in the Reference case, as illustrated in the High Oil and Gas Resource case, the share of renewable 

generation would grow more slowly, to only 14 percent in 2040. Alternatively, if broad-based policies to reduce GHG emissions 

were enacted, renewable generation would be expected to grow more rapidly. In three cases that assume GHG emissions fees 

that range from $10 to $25 per metric ton in 2014 and rise by 5 percent per year through 2040 (GHG10, GHG15, and GHG25), the 

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

History 2011 Projections

Jet fuel

22%

CNG/LNG

Diesel

E85

Other

Pipeline fuel

Motor gasoline

11%

4%

2%

60%

29%

4%

13%

1%

4%

47%

3%

Figure 6. Transportation energy consumption by fuel, 

1990-2040 (quadrillion Btu)

Electric power

32%

33%

2%

6%

12%

14%

History Projections

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2005 2011 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

31%

33%

3%

13%

19%

Industrial

Gas-to-liquids

Transportation

Residential

Commercial

Figure 7. U.S. dry natural gas consumption by sector, 

2005-2040 (trillion cubic feet)
6 U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013

Executive summary

renewable share of total U.S. electricity generation in 2040 

ranges from 23 percent to 31 percent (Figure 8).

The AEO2013 Reference case reflects a less optimistic outlook 

for advanced biofuels to capture a rapidly growing share of 

the liquid fuels market than earlier Annual Energy Outlooks. 

As a result, biomass use in the Reference case totals 5.9 

quadrillion Btu in 2035 and 7.1 quadrillion Btu in 2040, up 

from 4.0 quadrillion Btu in 2011.

Links current as of March 2013

6. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, “2017 and Later Model Year LightDuty Vehicle Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Corporate Average Fuel Economy Standards,” Federal Register, Vol. 77, No. 199 

(Washington, DC: October 15, 2012), https://www.federalregister.gov/articles/2012/10/15/2012-21972/2017-and-latermodel-year-light-duty-vehicle-greenhouse-gas-emissions-and-corporate-average-fuel.

7. Liquid motor fuels include diesel and liquid fuels from gas-to-liquids (GTL) processes. Liquid fuel volumes from GTL for motor 

vehicle use are estimated based on the ratio of onroad diesel and gasoline to total diesel and gasoline.

Endnotes for Executive summary

0

10

20

30

40

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

History 2011 Projections

GHG25

GHG15

GHG10

Reference

High Oil and Gas Resource

Figure 8. Renewable energy share of U.S. electricity 

generation in five cases, 2000-2040 (percent)
Legislation

and regulations
8 U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013

Legislation and regulations

Introduction

The Annual Energy Outlook 2013 (AEO2013) generally represents current federal and state legislation and final implementation 

regulations as of the end of September 2012. The AEO2013 Reference case assumes that current laws and regulations affecting 

the energy sector are largely unchanged throughout the projection period (including the implication that laws that include sunset 

dates are no longer in effect at the time of those sunset dates) [8]. The potential impacts of proposed legislation, regulations, 

or standards—or of sections of authorizing legislation that have been enacted but are not funded or where parameters will be 

set in a future regulatory process—are not reflected in the AEO2013 Reference case, but some are considered in alternative 

cases. The AEO2013 Reference case does not reflect the provisions of the American Taxpayer Relief Act of 2012 (P.L. 112-240) 

enacted on January 1, 2013 [9]. Key energy-related provisions of that legislation—including extension of the production tax credit 

for renewable generation, tax credits for energy-efficient appliances, and tax credits for selected biofuels—are reflected in an 

alternative case completed as part of AEO2013. This section summarizes federal and state legislation and regulations newly 

incorporated or updated in AEO2013 since the completion of the Annual Energy Outlook 2012 (AEO2012).

Examples of federal and state legislation and regulations incorporated in the AEO2013 Reference case or whose handling has been 

modified include:

•	 Incorporation of new light-duty vehicle greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) and corporate average fuel economy (CAFE) 

standards for model years 2017 to 2025 [10]

•	 Continuation of the Clean Air Interstate Rule (CAIR) [11] after the court’s announcement of intent to vacate the Cross-State 

Air Pollution Rule (CSAPR) [12]

•	 Updated handling of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) National Emissions Standards for Hazardous Air 

Pollutants (NESHAP) for industrial boilers and process heaters [13]

•	 Modeling of California’s Assembly Bill 32, the Global Warming Solutions Act (AB 32) [14], that allows for representation of a 

cap-and-trade program developed as part of California’s GHG reduction goals for 2020

•	 Incorporation of the California Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) [15], which requires fuel producers and importers who sell 

motor gasoline or diesel fuel in California to reduce the carbon intensity of those fuels by an average of 10 percent between 

2012 and 2020 through the mixing and increased sale of alternative low-carbon fuels.

There are many other pieces of legislation and regulation that appear to have some probability of being enacted in the not-toodistant future, and some laws include sunset provisions that may be extended. However, it is difficult to discern the exact forms 

that the final provisions of pending legislation or regulations will take, and sunset provisions may or may not be extended. Even in 

situations where existing legislation contains provisions to allow revision of implementing regulations, those provisions may not 

be exercised consistently. Many pending provisions are examined in alternative cases included in AEO2013 or in other analyses 

completed by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). In addition, at the request of the Administration and Congress, 

EIA has regularly examined the potential implications of other possible energy options in Service Reports. Those reports can be 

found on the EIA website at http://www.eia.gov/oiaf/service_rpts.htm.

1. Greenhouse gas emissions and corporate average fuel economy standards for 2017 and later model year 

light-duty vehicles

On October 15, 2012, EPA and the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) jointly issued a final rule for tailpipe 

emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and CAFE standards for light-duty vehicles, model years 2017 and beyond [16]. EPA, operating 

under powers granted by the Clean Air Act (CAA), issued final CO2 emissions standards for model years 2017 through 2025 for 

passenger cars and light-duty trucks, including medium-duty passenger vehicles. NHTSA, under powers granted by the Energy 

Policy and Conservation Act, as amended by the Energy Independence and Security Act, issued CAFE standards for passenger 

cars and light-duty trucks, including medium-duty passenger vehicles, for model years 2017 through 2025.

The new CO2 emissions and CAFE standards will first affect model year 2017 vehicles, with compliance requirements increasing 

in stringency each year thereafter through model year 2025. EPA has established standards that are expected to require a fleetwide average of 163 grams CO2 per mile for light-duty vehicles in model year 2025, which is equivalent to a fleet-wide average 

of 54.5 miles per gallon (mpg) if reached only through fuel economy. However, the CO2 emissions standards can be met in 

part through reductions in air-conditioning leakage and the use of alternative refrigerants, which reduce CO2-equivalent GHG 

emissions but do not affect the estimation of fuel economy compliance in the test procedure.

NHTSA has established two phases of CAFE standards for passenger cars and light-duty trucks (Table 1). The first phase, covering 

model years 2017 through 2021, includes final standards that NHTSA estimates will result in a fleet-wide average of 40.3 mpg 

for light-duty vehicles in model year 2021 [17]. The second phase, covering model years 2022 through 2025, requires additional 

improvements leading to a fleet-wide average of 48.7 mpg for light-duty vehicles in model year 2025. Compliance with CO2

emission and CAFE standards is calculated only after final model year vehicle production, with fleet-wide light-duty vehicle 

standards representing averages based on the sales volume of passenger cars and light-duty trucks for a given year. Because sales 
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013 9

Legislation and regulations

volumes are not known until after the end of the model year, EPA and NHTSA estimate future fuel economy based on the projected 

sales volumes of passenger cars and light-duty trucks.

The new CO2 emissions and CAFE standards for passenger cars and light-duty trucks use an attribute-based standard that is 

determined by vehicle footprint—the same methodology that was used in setting the final rule for model year 2012 to 2016 lightduty vehicles. Footprint is defined as wheelbase size (the distance from the center of the front axle to the center of the rear axle), 

multiplied by average track width (the distance between the center lines of the tires) in square feet. The minimum requirements 

for CO2 emissions and CAFE are production-weighted averages based on unique vehicle footprints in a manufacturer’s fleet and 

are calculated separately for passenger cars and light-duty trucks (Figures 9 and 10), reflecting their different design capabilities. 

In general, as vehicle footprint increases, compliance requirements decline to account for increased vehicle size and load-carrying 

capability. Each manufacturer faces a unique combination of CO2 emission and CAFE standards, depending on the number of 

vehicles produced and the footprints of those vehicles, separately for passenger cars and light-duty trucks.

For passenger cars, average fleet-wide compliance levels increase in stringency by 3.9 percent annually between model years 2017 

and 2021 and by 4.7 percent annually between 2022 and 2025, based on the model year 2010 baseline fleet. In recognition of 

the challenge of improving the fuel economy and reducing CO2 emissions of full-size pickup trucks while maintaining towing and 

payload capabilities, the average annual rate of increase in the stringency of light-duty truck standards is 2.9 percent from 2017 to 

2021, with smaller light-duty trucks facing higher increases and larger light-duty trucks lower increases in compliance stringency. 

From 2022 to 2025, the average annual increase in compliance stringency for all light-duty trucks is 4.7 percent.

The CO2 emissions and CAFE standards also include flexibility provisions for compliance by individual manufacturers, such as: 

(1) credit averaging, which allows credit transfers between a manufacturer’s passenger car and light-duty truck fleets; (2) credit 

banking, which allows manufacturers to “carry forward” 

credits earned from exceeding the standards in earlier model 

years and to “carry back” credits earned in later model years 

to offset shortfalls in earlier model years; (3) credit trading 

between manufacturers who exceed their standards and 

those who do not; (4) air conditioning improvement credits 

that can be applied toward CO2 emissions standards; (5) offcycle credits for measurable improvements in CO2 emissions 

and fuel economy that are not captured by the two-cycle test 

procedure used to measure emissions and fuel consumption; 

(6) CO2 emissions “compliance multipliers” for electric, 

plug-in hybrid electric, compressed natural gas, and fuel cell 

vehicles through model year 2021; and (7) incentives for the 

use of hybrid electric and other advanced technologies in fullsize pickup trucks.

Finally, flexibility provisions do not allow domestic passenger 

cars to deviate significantly from annual fuel economy targets. 

NHTSA retains a required minimum fuel economy level for 

Table 1. NHTSA projected average fleet-wide CAFE 

compliance levels (miles per gallon) for passenger 

cars and light-duty trucks, model years 2017-2025, 

based on the model year 2010 baseline fleet 

Model year

Passenger 

cars

Light-duty 

trucks Combined

2017 39.6 29.1 35.1

2018 41.1 29.6 36.1

2019 42.5 30.0 37.1

2020 44.2 30.6 38.3

2021 46.1 32.6 40.3

2022 48.2 34.2 42.3

2023 50.5 35.8 44.3

2024 52.9 37.5 46.5

2025 55.3 39.3 48.7

Vehicle footprint (square feet) 0

30

40

50

60

70

35 40 45 50 55 60 65

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

Figure 9. Projected average passenger car CAFE 

compliance targets (miles per gallon) by vehicle 

footprint (square feet), model years 2017-2025

Vehicle footprint (square feet)

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

0

20

30

40

50

60

35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80

Figure 10. Projected average light-duty truck CAFE 

compliance targets (miles per gallon) by vehicle 

footprint (square feet), model years 2017-2025
10 U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013

Legislation and regulations

domestically produced passenger cars by manufacturer that is the higher of 27.5 miles per gallon or 92 percent of the average fuel 

economy projected for the combined fleet of domestic and foreign passenger cars for sale in the United States. For example, the 

minimum standard for passenger cars sold by a manufacturer in 2025 would be 50.9 miles per gallon, based on the estimated fleet 

average passenger car fuel economy for that year.

The AEO2013 Reference case includes the final CAFE standards for model years 2012 through 2016 (promulgated in March 2010) 

[18] and the standards for model years 2017 through 2025, with subsequent CAFE standards for years 2026-2040 vehicles 

calculated using 2025 levels of stringency. The AEO2013 Reference case projects fuel economy values for passenger cars, lightduty trucks, and combined light-duty vehicles that differ from NHTSA projections. This variance is the result of a different 

distribution of the production of passenger cars and light-duty trucks by footprint as well as a different mix between passenger 

cars and light-duty trucks (Table 2). CAFE standards are included by using the equations and coefficients employed by NHTSA to 

determine unique fuel economy requirements based on footprint, along with the ability of manufacturers to earn flexibility credits 

toward compliance. The AEO2013 Reference case projects sales of passenger cars and light-duty trucks by vehicle footprint with 

the key assumption that vehicle footprints are held constant by manufacturer in each light-duty vehicle size class.

2. Recent rulings on the Cross-State Air Pollution Rule and the Clean Air Interstate Rule

On August 21, 2012, the United States Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit announced its intent to vacate CSAPR, 

which it had stayed from going into effect earlier in 2012. CSAPR was to replace CAIR, which was in effect, by establishing 

emissions caps (levels) for sulfur dioxide (SO2) and nitrogen oxides (NOX) emissions from power plants in the eastern half of the 

United States. As a result of the court’s action, the regulation of SO2 and NOX emissions will continue to be administered under 

CAIR pending the promulgation of a valid replacement. AEO2013 assumes that CAIR remains a binding regulation through 2040.

CAIR covers all fossil-fueled power plant units with nameplate capacity greater than 25 megawatts in 27 eastern states and the 

District of Columbia (Figure 11). Twenty-two states and the District of Columbia fall under the caps for both annual emissions of 

SO2 and NOX and ozone season NOX. Three states are controlled for only ozone season NOX, and two states are controlled for 

only annual SO2 and NOX emissions. The caps went into effect for NOX in 2009 and for SO2 in 2010. Both caps are scheduled to be 

tightened again in 2015. AEO2013 considered how the power sector would use the emissions allowance trading that EPA set up to 

lower compliance costs, including capturing the interplay of the SO2 program for acid rain under the Clean Air Act Amendments 

Title IV and the CAIR program that uses the same allowances.

Although CSAPR shared some basic similarities with CAIR, there are key differences between the two programs. Generally, 

CSAPR had greater limitations on trading to ensure that emissions reductions would occur in all states; lower emissions caps; and 

more rapid phasing in of tighter emissions caps. CSAPR also did not allow carryover of banked allowances from the Acid Rain SO2

and NOX Budget programs. Each program was aimed at substantial reductions of power sector SO2 and NOX emissions.

AEO2013 represents the limits on SO2 and NOX emissions trading as specified by CAIR. The National Energy Modeling System 

(NEMS) includes the representation of emissions for both the CAIR and non-CAIR regions. In NEMS, power plants in both regions 

are required to submit allowances to account for their emissions as if covered by the rule. NEMS allows for power plants in the 

CAIR regions to trade SO2 allowances with those plants in the non-CAIR region, but the SO2 allowances are valued differently for 

each region. NEMS also allows for the banking of SO2 and NOX allowances consistent with CAIR’s provisions.

3. Nuclear waste disposal and the Waste Confidence Rule

Waste confidence is defined by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) as a finding that spent nuclear fuel can be 

safely stored for decades beyond the licensed operating life of a reactor without significant environmental effects [19]. It enables 

the NRC to license reactors or renew their licenses without 

examining the effects of extended waste storage for each 

individual site pending ultimate disposal.

NRC’s Waste Confidence Rule issued in August 1984 [20] 

included five findings:

1. Spent nuclear fuel can be disposed of safely in a mined 

geologic repository.

2. A mined geologic repository will be available when needed 

for disposal of spent nuclear fuel.

3. Until a mined geologic repository is available, spent nuclear 

fuel can be safely managed.

4. Spent nuclear fuel can be safely stored at reactors for 30 

years without significant environmental impacts.

5. Storage will be made available for spent nuclear fuel onsite 

or offsite, if required.

Table 2. AEO2013 projected average fleet-wide CAFE 

compliance levels (miles per gallon) for passenger 

cars and light-duty trucks, model years 2017-2025 

Model year

Passenger 

cars

Light-duty 

trucks Combined

2017 40.1 30.1 34.7

2018 40.9 30.7 35.5

2019 42.6 30.9 36.4

2020 44.4 32.0 37.9

2021 46.4 33.8 39.8

2022 48.7 34.9 41.5

2023 51.3 36.5 43.6

2024 52.5 38.3 45.2

2025 55.0 40.0 47.3

2026-2040 Projected stringency based on 2025 levels.
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013 11

Legislation and regulations

The Waste Confidence Rule was updated in 1990 [21], reviewed in 1999, and updated again in 2010 [22].

In December 2010, with the termination of the repository program at Yucca Mountain, the Waste Confidence Rule was amended 

to state that spent nuclear fuel could be stored safely at reactor sites for 60 years following reactor shutdown. In June 2012, the 

U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit struck down the NRC’s 2010 amendment of the Waste Confidence Rule, 

stating that the NRC should have analyzed the environmental consequences of never building a permanent waste repository, and 

that the discussion of potential leaks or fires at spent fuel pools was inadequate [23].

The NRC issued an order in August 2012 that suspended actions related to issuance of operating licenses and license renewals 

[24]. Currently, the NRC is analyzing the potential impacts on licensing reviews and developing a proposed path forward to 

meet the court’s requirements. Until the NRC revises the Waste Confidence Rule, it will not issue reactor operating licenses or 

operating license renewals. Licensing reviews and proceedings will continue, but Atomic Safety and Licensing Board hearings will 

be suspended pending further NRC guidance. NRC expects to issue a revised Waste Confidence Rule within 2 years [25].

Reactors with license renewal applications under review by the NRC may continue to operate, even if their existing licenses 

expire, until the NRC can resolve the waste confidence issue and promulgate a revised rule. The regulation states: “If the licensee 

of a nuclear power plant licensed under 10 CFR 50.21(b) or 50.22 files a sufficient application for renewal of either an operating 

license or a combined license at least 5 years before the expiration of the existing license, the existing license will not be deemed 

to have expired until the application has been finally determined” [26]. There are currently 15 reactors with license renewal 

applications in various stages of review by the NRC that are subject to the August 2012 order that suspends licensing decisions.

For those reactors that have not submitted applications for license renewal, the first license expiration date would occur in 2020. 

Because it is anticipated by the NRC that the issues with the Waste Confidence Rule will be resolved within 2 years, well before 

2020, the continued operation of those reactors should not be affected. The AEO2013 Reference case assumes plants that have 

not submitted applications for license renewal will be unaffected.

Currently, utilities have the option to license reactors under either of two NRC rules. The NRC’s Domestic Licensing of Production 

and Utilization Facilities rule defines a two-step process for obtaining an operating license [27]. First, a construction permit is 

States controlled for both annual SO2 and NOX and ozone season NOX (22 states)

States controlled for only annual SO2 and NOX (2 states)

States controlled for ozone season NOX (3 states)

States not covered by the Clean Air Interstate Rule

Figure 11. States covered by CAIR limits on emissions of sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxides
12 U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013

Legislation and regulations

issued, and then an operating license is issued. There are two U.S. reactors with current construction permits: Bellefonte Unit 1 

and Watts Bar Unit 2. Both plants are owned by the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA), which has announced that construction of 

Bellefonte Unit 1 will not proceed until fuel loading at Watts Bar Unit 2 is completed [28]. Neither reactor will be able to receive an 

operating license until the waste confidence issue is resolved, but construction may continue. TVA has not provided a projected 

date for commencement of operations at Bellefonte Unit 1, but it is unlikely that resolution of the issues associated with the Waste 

Confidence Rule will affect the operational date of Bellefonte Unit 1. Watts Bar Unit 2 was originally scheduled to go online in 2012, 

but delays in construction make it unlikely that it will be ready to begin operation before the issues with the Waste Confidence 

Rule can be resolved. AEO2013 assumes that Watts Bar Unit 2 will come online in December 2015.

The NRC’s “Licenses, Certifications, and Approvals for Nuclear Power Plants” rule defines a one-step process, whereby the 

construction permit and operating license are issued as a combined license (COL) [29]. Once an application for a COL is submitted, 

the utility may engage in certain pre-construction activities. To date, two plants, each with two reactors, have received COLs in 

2012. Vogtle Units 3 and 4 and Summer Units 2 and 3 will both be unaffected by the issues with the Waste Confidence Rule. Once 

construction and all inspections are complete, the Vogtle and Summer plants may commence operations. For utilities that have 

submitted applications but have not received COLs, issuance of those licenses may be delayed. For COL applications currently 

under active review, it is possible that two—Levy County Units 1 and 2 and William States Lee III Units 1 and 2—may be delayed, 

based on their review status and the NRC’s schedule for application reviews. The online dates for the units should be unaffected 

if issues with the Waste Confidence Rule are resolved within the next 2 years.

Based on EIA’s analysis of the Waste Confidence Rule and ongoing proceedings, the AEO2013 Reference case assumes that the 

issuance of new operating licenses will not be affected. AEO2013 also assumes that the Waste Confidence Rule will not affect 

power uprates, because uprates do not increase the amount of spent nuclear fuel requiring storage, as confirmed in a public policy 

statement issued by the NRC [30].

4. Maximum Achievable Control Technology for industrial boilers

Section 112 of the CAA requires the regulation of air toxics through implementation of NESHAP for industrial, commercial, and 

institutional boilers [31]. The final regulations are also known as “Boiler MACT,” where MACT is the Maximum Achievable Control 

Technology. Pollutants covered by the Boiler MACT regulations include control of hazardous air pollutants (HAPs), such as 

hydrogen chloride, mercury (Hg), and dioxin/furan, as well as carbon monoxide (CO), and particulate matter (PM) as surrogates 

for other HAPs. Boilers used for generating electricity are explicitly covered by the Mercury and Air Toxics Standards, also under 

Section 112 of the CAA, and are specifically excluded from Boiler MACT regulations.

The Final Rule for Boiler MACT was issued in March 2011; a partial Reconsideration Rule concerning limited technical corrections 

to the Final Rule was issued in December 2011, but it did not replace the Final Rule. The AEO2013 Reference case assumes that the 

Final Rule and the partial Reconsideration Rules are in force. The finalized Boiler MACT rule was announced in December 2012, 

after the modeling work for AEO2013 was completed. The provisions of the finalized Boiler MACT rule are less stringent than the 

provisions of the Final Rule and the partial Reconsideration Rule assumed in the Reference case. For AEO2013, the upgrade costs 

of Boiler MACT were implemented in the Macroeconomic Activity Module (MAM). Upgrade costs used are the “nonproductive 

costs,” which are not associated with efficiency improvements. The upgrade costs are applied as an aggregated cost across all 

industries. Because of this aggregation of cost and the need for consistency across industries, the cost in the MAM is manifested 

as a reduction in shipments in the Industrial Demand Module. There is little difference in the cost of compliance for major sources 

between the March 2011 Final Rule and the December 2011 Reconsideration Rule, and there is no difference for area sources.

Boiler MACT has two compliance groups with different obligations: major source [32] and area source. A site that contains 

one or more boilers or process heaters that have the potential to emit 10 or more tons of any one HAP per year, or 25 tons or 

more of a combination of HAP per year, is a major source [33]. An emissions site that is not a major source is classified as an 

area source [34]. The characteristics of the site determine the compliance group of the boiler. Generally, compliance measures 

include regular maintenance and tuneups for smaller facilities and emission limits and performance tests for larger facilities. In 

the Reconsideration Rule, EIA calculations based on EPA estimates revealed that there were 14,111 existing major source boilers in 

2011 [35]. Of those, calculations based on EPA estimates revealed that 16 percent burn fuels that potentially may subject them to 

specific emissions limits and annual performance tests. The existing number of affected area source boilers in 2011 was estimated 

at 189,450 by EIA, using data from EPA [36].

To comply with Boiler MACT, major source boilers and process heaters whose heat input is less than 10 million Btu per hour must 

receive tuneups every 2 years [37]. Most existing and new major source boilers or process heaters with heat inputs 10 million 

Btu per hour or greater that burn coal, biomass, liquid, or “other” gas are subject to emission limits on all five of the HAP listed 

above [38]. Larger major source boilers with heat input of 25 million Btu per hour or greater that burn coal, biomass, or residual 

oil must use a continuous emission monitoring system for PM [39]. Major source boilers with heat inputs of 10 million Btu per 

hour or more that burn natural gas or refinery gas, as well as metal process furnaces, are not subject to specific emissions limits 

or performance tests [40]. Existing major source boilers must comply with the Final Rule by March 21, 2014; new major source 

boilers must comply by May 20, 2011, or upon startup, whichever is later [41].
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013 13

Legislation and regulations

Area source natural gas-fired boilers are not subject to Boiler MACT. Area source coal-fired boilers whose heat input is less than 

10 million Btu per hour and biomass-fired and liquid fuel-fired boilers of any size must receive a tuneup every 2 years. Existing 

area source boilers with heat input of 10 million Btu per hour or greater are subject to emissions limits, must receive an initial 

energy assessment, and must undergo performance tests every 3 years [42]. Existing and new coal-fired boilers must meet Hg 

and CO limits; new coal-fired boilers must also meet limits for PM. New oil-fired and biomass-fired boilers must meet emissions 

limits only for PM [43]. Existing area source boilers subject to an energy assessment and emissions limits must comply by 

March 21, 2014.

5. State renewable energy requirements and goals: Update through 2012

To the extent possible, AEO2013 incorporates the impacts of state laws requiring the addition of renewable generation or capacity 

by utilities doing business in the states. Currently, 30 states and the District of Columbia have an enforceable renewable portfolio 

standard (RPS) or similar law (Table 3). Under such standards, each state determines its own levels of renewable generation, 

eligible technologies [44], and noncompliance penalties. AEO2013 includes the impacts of all RPS laws in effect at the end of 

2012 (with the exception of Alaska and Hawaii, because NEMS provides electricity market projections for the contiguous lower 

48 states only). However, the projections do not include policies with either voluntary goals or targets that can be substantially 

satisfied with nonrenewable resources. In addition, NEMS does not treat fuel-specific provisions—such as those for solar and 

offshore wind energy—as distinct targets. Where applicable, such distinct targets (sometimes referred to as “tiers,” “set-asides,” 

or “carve-outs”) may be subsumed into the broader targets, or they may not be included in the modeling because they could be 

met with existing capacity and/or projected growth based on modeled economic and policy factors.

In the AEO2013 Reference case, states generally are projected to meet their ultimate RPS targets. The RPS compliance constraints 

in most regions are approximated, because NEMS is not a state-level model, and each state generally represents only a portion 

of one of the NEMS electricity regions. Compliance costs in each region are tracked, and the projection for total renewable 

generation is checked for consistency with any state-level cost-control provisions, such as caps on renewable credit prices, limits 

on state compliance funding, or impacts on consumer electricity prices. In general, EIA has confirmed the states’ requirements 

through original documentation, although the Database of State Incentives for Renewables & Efficiency was also used to support 

those efforts [45].

No new RPS programs were enacted over the past year; however, some states with existing RPS programs made modifications 

in 2012, as discussed below. The aggregate RPS requirement for the various state programs, as modeled in AEO2013, is shown 

in Figure 12. In 2025 the targets account for about 10 percent of U.S. electricity sales. The requirement is derived from the legal 

targets and projected sales and does not account for any of the discretionary or nondiscretionary waivers or limits on compliance 

found in most state RPS programs.

At present, most states are meeting or exceeding their required levels of renewable generation based on qualified generation 

[46]. A number of factors have helped to create an environment favorable for RPS compliance, including a surge of new RPSqualified generation capacity timed to take advantage of federal incentives that either have expired or were scheduled to expire; 

significant reductions in the cost of renewable technologies like wind and solar; and generally reduced growth (or, in some cases, 

even contraction) of electricity sales. In addition to the availability of federal tax credits, which historically have gone through a 

cycle of expiration and renewal, renewable energy projects 

were given access to other options for federal support, 

including cash grants (also known as Section 1603 grants) 

and loan guarantees. The short-term availability of federal 

incentives has helped to make renewable capacity attractive 

to investors and helped utilities meet state requirements 

or potential future load growth in advance (that is, build 

ahead of time to take advantage of the federal incentives). 

The attractiveness of renewable projects to investors has 

also been supported by declining equipment costs for 

wind turbines and solar photovoltaic systems, as well as by 

improvements in the performance of those technologies. The 

declines in technology cost are, in themselves, the result of a 

complex set of interactions of policy, market, and engineering 

factors. Finally, most state RPS programs have targets that 

are tied to retail electricity sales; and with relatively slow 

growth in electricity sales in most parts of the country, the 

renewable generation that has entered service recently has 

gone further toward meeting the proportionally lower targets 

for absolute amounts of energy (that is, for kilowatthours of 

energy, as opposed to energy as a percent of sales). 0

250

500

750

2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040

Required by RPS

Surplus

Figure 12. Total renewable generation required for 

combined state renewable portfolio standards and 

projected total achieved, 2012-2040 

(billion kilowatthours)
14 U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013

Legislation and regulations

Table 3. Renewable portfolio standards in the 30 states and District of Columbia with current mandates

State Target

Qualifying 

renewables

Qualifying other 

(thermal, efficiency, 

nonrenewable 

distributed 

generation, etc.) Compliance mechanisms

AZ 15% by 2025 Solar, wind, biomass, 

hydropower, landfill 

gas (LFG), anaerobic 

digestion built after 

January 1, 1997

Direct use of solar 

heat, ground-source 

heat pumps, and 

renewable-fueled 

combined heat 

and power (CHP), 

cogeneration, and 

fuel cells

Credit trading is allowed, with some bundling 

restrictions. Includes distributed generation 

requirement, starting at 5% of target in 2007, growing 

to 30% in 2012 and beyond.

CA 33% by 2020 Solar, wind, biomass, 

geothermal, LFG and 

municipal solid waste 

(MSW), small hydro, 

biodiesel, anaerobic 

digestion, and marine

Energy storage Credit trading is allowed, with some restrictions. 

Renewable energy credit prices are capped at $50 per 

megawatthour.

CO 30% by 2020 for 

investor-owned 

utilities; 33% by 

2025 for electric 

cooperatives and 

municipal utilities 

serving more than 

40,000 customers

Solar, wind, biomass, 

hydro, biomass, 

geothermal electric, 

and anaerobic 

digestion

Recycled energy Credit trading is allowed. The distributed renewables 

requirement (30% of target) applies to investor-owned 

utilities. Generation from in-state and solar projects 

is eligible to earn credit multipliers, as is generation 

associated with certain projects that have specific 

ownership or transmission ties with small utilities, 

entities, or individuals.

CT 27% by 2020 (23% 

renewables, 4% 

efficiency and CHP)

Solar, wind, hydro 

(with exceptions), 

LFG/MSW, anaerobic 

energy, marine

CHP/cogeneration Credit trading is allowed. Obligated providers may 

comply via an alternative compliance payment of 

$55 per megawatthour. The target is made up of four 

source tiers with tier-specific targets.

DE 25% by 2026 Solar, wind, biomass, 

hydro, geothermal, 

LFG, anaerobic 

digestion, marine

Fuel cells, distributed 

generation

Credit trading is allowed. Credit multipliers are awarded 

for several compliance specifications, including 

generation from in-state distributed solar and renewablefueled fuel cells and offshore wind. Target increases for 

some suppliers can be subject to a cost threshold.

DC 20% by 2020 Solar, wind, biomass, 

hydro, geothermal, 

LFG/MSW, marine

Cofiring Credit trading is allowed. Target includes a solarspecific set-aside, equivalent to 2.5% of sales by 2023. 

Obligated providers may also comply via a tier-specific 

alternative compliance payment.

HI 40% by 2030 Solar, wind, biomass, 

hydro, geothermal, 

LFG/MSW, anaerobic 

digestion, marine, 

certain biofuels

Direct use of solar, 

ground-source heat 

pumps, ice storage, 

CHP/cogeneration, 

efficiency programs, 

fuel cells using 

renewable fuels, 

hydrogen

Credits cannot be traded. Eligibility of several of 

the "qualifying other" displacement technologies is 

restricted after 2015. Utility companies can calculate 

compliance over all utility affiliates.

IL 25% by 2026 Solar, wind, biomass, 

hydro, anaerobic 

digestion, biodiesel

None Credit trading is allowed. Target includes specific 

requirements for wind, solar, and distributed generation. 

The procurement process is subject to a cost cap.

IA 105 megawatts of 

eligible renewable 

resources

Wind, solar, some 

types of biomass 

and waste, small 

hydropower

None Iowa's investor-owned utilities currently are in full 

compliance with this standard, achieved primarily 

through wind capacity.

(continued on next page)
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013 15

Legislation and regulations

Table 3. Renewable portfolio standards in the 30 states and District of Columbia with current mandates (continued)

State Target

Qualifying 

renewables

Qualifying other 

(thermal, efficiency, 

nonrenewable 

distributed 

generation, etc.) Compliance mechanisms

KS 20% of each demand 

capacity by 2020

Solar, wind, 

hydro, biomass, 

LFG, renewablefueled fuel cells

Direct use of 

solar heat

Credit trading is allowed. Eligible in-state capacity 

counts for 1.1 times its actual capacity.

ME 40% total by 2017, 

10% by 2017 from 

new resources 

entering service in 

2005 and beyond

Solar, LFG, wind, 

biomass, hydro, 

geothermal, MSW, 

marine

Fuel cells, CHP/

cogeneration

Credit trading is allowed. The Maine Public Utilities 

Commission sets an annually adjusted alternative 

compliance payment. Community-based generation 

projects are eligible to earn credit multipliers.

MD 20% by 2022 Solar, wind, biomass, 

geothermal, LFG/

MSW, anaerobic 

digestion, marine

Solar water heat, 

ground-source 

heat pumps

Credit trading allowed. The target includes a solar 

specific set-aside. Utilities may pay an alternative 

compliance payment in lieu of procuring eligible 

sources, with a tier-specific compliance schedule.

MA 22.1% by 2020 (and 

an additional 1% per 

year thereafter)

Solar, wind, hydro, 

some biomass technologies, LFG/MSW, 

geothermal electric, 

anaerobic digestion, 

marine, renewablefueled fuel cells

None Credit trading is allowed. The target for new 

resources includes a solar-specific goal to achieve 

400 megawatts of in-state solar capacity, which is 

translated into an annual target for obligated providers. 

Obligated providers may comply via an alternative 

compliance payment (ACP), which varies in level by the 

requirement class, although the ACP is designed to be 

higher than the cost of other compliance options.

MI 10% by 2015, with 

specific new capacity 

goals for utilities that 

serve more than 1 

million customers

Solar, wind, hydro, 

biomass, LFG/MSW, 

geothermal electric, 

anaerobic digestion, 

marine

CHP/cogeneration, 

coal with carbon capture and sequestration, 

and energy efficiency 

measures for up to 10 

percent of a utility’s 

sales obligation

Credit trading is allowed. Solar power receives a credit 

multiplier, while other generation and equipment 

features—such as peak generation, storage, and use of 

equipment manufactured in-state—can earn fractional 

bonus credits.

MN 30% by 2020 (Xcel 

Energy) or 25% by 

2025 (other utilities)

Solar, wind, hydro, 

biomass, LFG/MSW, 

anaerobic digestion

Hydrogen (generated 

from renewable 

sources), cofiring

Credit trading is allowed. Xcel’s target must achieve 

25 percent of sales specifically from wind and solar 

(with a 1-percent maximum for solar). State regulators 

can penalize noncompliance at the estimated cost of 

compliance.

MO 15% by 2021 Solar, wind, hydro, 

biomass, LFG/MSW, 

anaerobic digestion, 

ethanol, renewablefueled fuel cells

None Credit trading is allowed. Non-compliance payments 

are set at double the market rate for renewable energy 

credits. Solar must account for 20% of the annual 

target.

MT 15% by 2015 Solar, wind, hydro, 

geothermal, biomass, 

LFG

Compressed air 

storage

Credit trading is allowed, with a price cap of $10 

per megawatthour. There are specific targets for 

community-based projects.

NV 25% by 2025 Solar, wind, hydro, 

geothermal, biomass, 

LFG/MSW

Waste tires, direct 

use of solar and geo -

thermal heat, efficiency measures (which 

can account for onequarter of the target in 

any given year)

Credit trading is allowed. Photovoltaics receives 

a credit premium, with an additional premium for 

customer-sited systems.

NH 24.8% by 2025 Solar, wind, small 

hydro, marine, LFG

Fuel cells, CHP, microturbines, direct use 

of solar heat, groundsource heat pumps

Credit trading is allowed, and utilities may pay into a 

fund in lieu of holding credits. The target comprises 

four separate compliance classes, broken out by 

technology.

(continued on next page)
16 U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013

Legislation and regulations

Table 3. Renewable portfolio standards in the 30 states and District of Columbia with current mandates (continued)

State Target

Qualifying 

renewables

Qualifying other 

(thermal, efficiency, 

nonrenewable 

distributed 

generation, etc.) Compliance mechanisms

NJ 20.38% by 2021, with 

an additional 4.1% 

solar by 2027

Solar, wind, hydro, 

geothermal, LFG/

MSW, marine

None Credit trading is allowed, with an alternative 

compliance payment set by state regulators. Solar and 

offshore wind are subject to separate requirements 

and have separate enforcement provisions.

NM 20% by 2020 for 

investor-owned 

utilities, 10% by 2020 

for cooperatives

Solar, wind, hydro, 

geothermal, LFG

Zero-emission 

technology, not 

including nuclear

Credit trading is allowed. The program cannot increase 

consumer costs beyond a threshold amount, increasing 

to 3 percent of annual costs by 2015. Technology 

minimums are established for wind, solar, and certain 

other resources.

NY 29% by 2015 Solar, wind, hydro, 

geothermal, biomass, 

LFG, marine

Direct use of solar 

heat, fuel cells

Credit trading is not allowed. Compliance is achieved 

through purchases by state authorities, funded by a 

surcharge on investor-owned utilities. Governmentowned utilities may have their own, similar programs.

NC 12.5% by 2021 for 

investor-owned 

utilities; 10% by 2018 

for municipal and 

cooperative utilities

Solar, wind, small 

hydro, biomass, 

geothermal, LFG, 

marine

Direct use of solar 

heat, CHP, hydrogen, 

demand reduction

Credit trading is allowed. Impacts on customer costs 

are capped at specified levels. There are specific 

targets for solar and certain animal waste projects.

OH 12.5% by 2024 Solar, wind, hydro, 

biomass, geothermal, 

LFG/MSW

Energy storage, 

separate 12.5% 

target for “advanced 

energy technologies,” 

including coal mine 

methane, advanced 

nuclear, and efficiency

Credit trading is allowed. Alternative compliance 

payments are set by law and adjusted annually. There 

is a separate target for solar energy.

OR 5% by 2025 for 

utilities with less than 

1.5% of total sales; 

10% by 2025 for 

utilities with less than 

3% of total sales; 25% 

by 2025 for all others

Solar, wind, hydro, 

biomass, geothermal, 

LFG/MSW, marine

Hydrogen Credit trading is allowed, with an alternative 

compliance payment and a limit on expenditures of 4% 

of annual revenue. Solar receives a credit multiplier.

PA 18% by 2020 Solar, wind, hydro, 

biomass, LFG/MSW

Certain advanced coal 

technologies, certain 

energy efficiency 

technologies, fuel 

cells, direct use of 

solar heat, groundsource heat pumps

Credit trading is allowed, with an alternative 

compliance payment. There are separate targets for 

solar and two different combinations of renewable, 

fossil, and efficiency technologies.

RI 16% by 2019 Solar, wind, hydro, 

biomass, geothermal, 

LFG, marine

None Credit trading is allowed, with an alternative 

compliance payment. There is a separate target for 90 

megawatts of new renewable capacity.

TX 5,880 megawatts by 

2018

Solar, wind, hydro, 

biomass, geothermal, 

LFG, marine

Direct use of solar 

heat, ground-source 

heat pumps

Credit trading is allowed, with capacity targets 

converted to generation equivalents. State regulators 

may cap credit prices. 500 megawatts must be from 

resources other than wind.

WA 15% by 2020 Solar, wind, hydro, 

biomass, geothermal, 

LFG, marine

Combined heat and 

power

Credit trading is allowed, with an administrative 

penalty for noncompliance.

WV 25% by 2025 Solar, wind, hydro, 

biomass, geothermal, 

small hydro

Several coal and 

natural gas generation 

sources

Credit trading is allowed, with noncompliance assessments to be determined by state regulators. Renewable 

generation may receive credit multipliers, with additional credit earned for locating on abandoned strip mines.
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013 17

Legislation and regulations

Table 3. Renewable portfolio standards in the 30 states and District of Columbia with current mandates (continued)

State Target

Qualifying 

renewables

Qualifying other 

(thermal, efficiency, 

nonrenewable 

distributed 

generation, etc.) Compliance mechanisms

WI 10% by 2015 Solar, wind, hydro, 

biomass, geothermal, 

LFG/MSW, small 

hydro, marine

Pyrolysis [47], 

synthetic gas, direct 

use of solar or 

biomass heat, groundsource heat pumps

Credit trading is allowed.

EIA projects that, overall, RPS-qualified generation will continue to meet or exceed aggregate targets for state RPS programs 

through 2040, as shown in Figure 12. Through the next decade, the surplus qualifying generation will decline gradually, as little 

additional qualifying capacity is added, allowing the targets to catch up with supply. By the end of the projection horizon, however, 

the surplus widens substantially as renewable generation technologies become increasingly competitive with conventional 

generation sources. It should be noted that the aggregate targets and qualifying generation shown in Figure 12 may mask 

significant regional variation, with some regions producing excess qualifying generation and others producing just enough to 

meet the requirement or even needing to import generation from adjoining regions to meet state targets. Furthermore, just 

because there is, in aggregate, more qualifying generation than is needed to meet the targets, this does not necessarily imply that 

projected generation would be the same without state RPS policies. State RPS policies may encourage investment in places where 

it otherwise would not occur, or would not occur in the amounts projected, even as other parts of the country see substantial 

growth above state targets, or even in their absence. It does, however, suggest that state RPS programs will not be the sole reason 

for future growth in renewable generation.

Recent RPS modifications

A number of states modified their RPS programs in 2012, either through regulatory proceedings or through legislative action. 

These changes are reflected in Table 3. The changes affect some aspects of the laws and implementing regulations, but they do 

not have substantive effects on the representation of the RPS programs in AEO2013. Key changes include:

California

California Assembly Bill 2196, which establishes requirements for certain biomass-based generation resources, requires that 

biomass-derived gas be produced on site or sourced from a common carrier pipeline that operates within the state. It also sets 

additional requirements related to the in-service date of a common carrier source and the ability to claim certain environmental 

benefits from the use of such sources.

Maryland

The state enacted a series of bills that accelerate the solar-specific compliance schedule (while leaving the aggregate RPS target 

unchanged) and expand the tier 1 requirement category to include thermal output from certain animal waste and ground-source 

heat pumps.

Massachusetts

The Department of Energy Resources issued final rules regarding the use of certain biomass resources to meet the RPS standard. 

Biomass facilities must meet certain conditions with regard to conversion technology and feedstock sourcing to be eligible for use 

in meeting the standard.

New Hampshire

Senate Bill 218 allows certain thermal resources, including heat derived from qualified solar, geothermal, and biomass sources, 

to meet renewable energy targets. It also allows electricity produced from the cofiring of biomass in certain existing coal plants 

to meet the requirements. The bill also adjusts the total renewable energy target upward by 1 percentage point, to 24.8 percent 

by 2025.

New Jersey

Senate Bill 1925 changed the compliance schedule for the solar component of the RPS. The revised law is implemented with a 

solar target of 3.47 percent of sales by 2021.

Ohio

The legislature passed a set of laws that allow certain types of cogeneration facilities to qualify in meeting the RPS.
18 U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013

Legislation and regulations

6. California Assembly Bill 32: Emissions cap-and-trade as part of the Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006

California’s AB 32, the Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006, authorized the California Air Resources Board (CARB) to set 

California’s overall GHG emissions reduction goal to its 1990 level by 2020 and establish a comprehensive, multi-year program 

to reduce GHG emissions in California, including a cap-and-trade program [48]. In addition to the cap-and-trade program, other 

authorized measures include the LCFS; energy efficiency goals and programs in transportation, buildings, and industry; combined 

heat and power goals; and RPS [49].

The cap-and-trade program features an enforceable cap on GHG emissions that will decline over time. CARB will distribute 

tradable allowances equal to the emissions allowed under the cap. Enforceable compliance obligations begin in 2013 for the 

electric power sector, including electricity imports, and for industrial facilities. Fuel providers must comply starting in 2015. All 

facilities that emit 25,000 metric tons carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) or more are subject to cap-and-trade regulations. The 

only exception is that, starting in 2015, all importers of electricity from electric facilities outside of California will be subject to 

cap-and-trade regulations, even from facilities that emit less than 25,000 metric tons CO2e [50].

The most significant GHG covered under the program is CO2, but the cap-and-trade program covers several other GHGs [51], 

including methane, nitrous oxide, perfluorocarbons, chlorofluorocarbons, nitrogen trifluoride, and sulfur hexafluoride [52]. In 

2007, CARB determined that 427 million metric tons carbon dioxide equivalent (MMTCO2e) was the total state-wide GHG 

emissions level in 1990 and, therefore, would be the 2020 emissions goal. CARB estimates that the implementation of the capand-trade program will reduce GHG emissions by between 18 and 27 MMTCO2e in 2020 [53].

The enforceable cap goes into effect in 2013, and there are three multi-year compliance periods:

•	 Compliance period 1 (2013-2014) includes sources of GHG emissions responsible for more than one-third of state-wide emissions.

•	 Compliance period 2 (2015-2017) covers sources of GHG emissions responsible for about 85 percent of state-wide emissions.

•	 Compliance period 3 (2018-2020) covers the same sources as Compliance Period 2 [54].

The electric power and industrial sectors are required to comply with the cap starting in 2013. Providers of natural gas, propane, and 

transportation fuels are required to comply starting in 2015, when the second compliance period begins. For the first compliance 

period, covered entities are required to submit allowances for up to 30 percent of their annual emissions in each year; however, at 

the end of 2014 they are required to account for all the emissions for which they were responsible during the 2-year period. Each 

covered entity can also use offsets to meet up to 8 percent of its compliance obligation. Offsets used as part of the program must 

be approved by CARB and can be canceled later by CARB for certain reasons (a provision known as “buyer liability”).

A majority (51 percent) of the allowances [55] allocated over the initial 8 years of the program will be distributed through price 

containment reserves and auctions, which will be held quarterly when the program commences. CARB’s first allowance auction 

was held in November 2012 [56]. Future auctions may be linked to Québec’s cap-and-trade program [57]. Twenty-five percent 

of the allowances are allocated directly to electric utilities that sell electricity to consumers in the state. Seventeen percent 

of the allowances are allocated directly to affected industrial facilities in order to mitigate the economic impact of the cap on 

the industrial sector [58]. Allowance allocations for the industrial sector are based on output. Starting in 2013, the number of 

allowances allocated annually to the industrial sector declines linearly to 50 percent of the original total in 2020. The remaining 7 

percent of the allowances issued in a given year go into a price containment reserve, to be used only if allowance prices rise above 

a set amount in quarterly auctions.

The AB 32 cap-and-trade provisions, which were incorporated only for the electric power sector in AEO2012, are more fully 

implemented in AEO2013, adding industrial facilities, refineries, fuel providers, and non-CO2 GHG emissions. The allowance price, 

representing the incremental cost of complying with AB 32 cap-and-trade, is modeled in the NEMS Electricity Market Module 

via a region-specific emissions constraint. This allowance price, when added to the market fuel prices, results in higher effective 

fuel prices [59] in the demand sectors. Limited banking and borrowing, as well as a price containment reserve [60] and offsets, 

also have been modeled, providing some compliance flexibility and cost containment. NEMS macroeconomic effects are based 

on an energy-economy equilibrium that reacts to changes in energy prices and energy consumption; however, no macroeconomic 

effects are assumed explicitly from the AB 32 cap-and-trade provisions.

7. California low carbon fuel standard

The LCFS, administered by CARB [61], is designed to reduce by 10 percent the average carbon intensity of motor gasoline and 

diesel fuels sold in California from 2012 to 2020 through the increased sale of alternative “low-carbon” fuels. Regulated parties 

generally are the fuel producers and importers who sell motor gasoline or diesel fuel in California. The program is assumed to 

remain in place at 2020 levels from 2021 to 2040 in AEO2013. The carbon intensity of each alternative low-carbon fuel, based on 

life-cycle analyses conducted under the guidance of CARB for a number of approved fuel pathways, is calculated on an energyequivalent basis, measured in grams of CO2-equivalent emissions per megajoule.

AEO2013 incorporates the LCFS by requiring that the average carbon intensity of motor fuels sold for use in California meets 

the carbon intensity targets. For the AEO2013 Reference case, carbon intensity targets and the carbon intensities of alternative 

fuels were adapted from the “Third Notice of Public Availability of Modified Text and Availability of Additional Documents and 
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013 19

Legislation and regulations

Information” [62]. Key uncertainties in the modeling of the LCFS are the availability of low-carbon fuels in California and what 

actions CARB may take if the LCFS is not met. In AEO2013, these uncertainties are addressed by assuming that fuel providers can 

purchase low-carbon credits if low-carbon fuels cannot be produced and sold at reasonable prices.

In December 2011, the U.S. District Court for the Eastern Division of California ruled in favor of several trade groups that claimed 

the LCFS violated the interstate commerce clause of the U.S. Constitution by seeking to regulate farming and ethanol production 

practices in other states. The court granted an injunction blocking enforcement of the LCFS by CARB [63]. In April 2012, the U.S. 

Ninth District Court of Appeals granted a stay of injunction while CARB appeals the original ruling [64]. Although the future of 

the LCFS program remains uncertain, the stay of the injunction requires that the program be enforced.
20 U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013

Legislation and regulations

Links current as of March 2013

8. A complete list of the laws and regulations included in AEO2013 is provided in Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2013, 

Appendix A, http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/assumptions/pdf/0554(2013).pdf.

9. U.S. Government Printing Office, “American Taxpayer Relief Act of 2012, Public Law 112-240” (Washington, DC: January 1, 

2013), http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/PLAW-112publ240/pdf/PLAW-112publ240.pdf.

10. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, “2017 and Later Model Year LightDuty Vehicle Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Corporate Average Fuel Economy Standards; Final Rule,” Federal Register, Vol. 

77, No. 199 (Washington, DC: October 15, 2012), https://www.federalregister.gov/articles/2012/10/15/2012-21972/2017-

and-later-model-year-light-duty-vehicle-greenhouse-gas-emissions-and-corporate-average-fuel.

11. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, “Clean Air Interstate Rule (CAIR)” (Washington, DC: December 19, 2012), http://

www.epa.gov/cair/index.html#older.

12. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, “Fact Sheet: The Cross-State Air Pollution Rule: Reducing the Interstate Transport of 

Fine Particulate MaItter and Ozone” (Washington, DC: July 2011), http://www.epa.gov/airtransport/pdfs/CSAPRFactsheet.

pdf.

13. Clean Air Act, 42 U.S.C. 7412 (2011), http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/USCODE-2011-title42/pdf/USCODE-2011-title42-

chap85-subchapI-partA.pdf.

14. State of California, Assembly Bill No. 32, Chapter 488, “California Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006” (Sacramento, 

CA: September 27, 2006), http://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/billNavClient.xhtml?bill_id=200520060AB32&search_

keywords.

15. California Code of Regulations, “Final Regulation Order: Subchapter 10. Climate Change, Article 4. Regulations to Achieve 

Greenhouse Gas Emission Reductions, Subarticle 7, Low Carbon Fuel Standard,” Sections 95480 to 95490 (Sacramento, CA: 

July 2011), https://www.arb.ca.gov/regact/2009/lcfs09/finalfro.pdf.

16. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, “2017 and Later Model Year LightDuty Vehicle Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Corporate Average Fuel Economy Standards; Final Rule,” Federal Register, Vol. 

77, No. 199 (Washington, DC: October 15, 2012), https://www.federalregister.gov/articles/2012/10/15/2012-21972/2017-

and-later-model-year-light-duty-vehicle-greenhouse-gas-emissions-and-corporate-average-fuel.

17. Fuel economy projection averages based on a 2010 baseline fleet. NHTSA alternatively lists projected compliance fuel 

economy averages based on the 2008 baseline fleet. EPA lists compliance-level average CO2 tailpipe emissions based solely 

on the 2008 baseline fleet.

18. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, “Light-Duty Vehicle Greenhouse 

Gas Emission Standards and Corporate Average Fuel Economy Standards; Final Rule,” Federal Register, Vol. 75, No. 88 

(Washington, DC: May 7, 2010), https://www.federalregister.gov/articles/2010/05/07/2010-8159/light-duty-vehiclegreenhouse-gas-emission-standards-and-corporate-average-fuel-economy-standards.

19. U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, “Temporary storage of spent nuclear fuel after cessation of reactor operation—generic 

determination of no significant environmental impact,” (Washington, DC: December 18, 2012), http://www.nrc.gov/readingrm/doc-collections/cfr/part051/part051-0023.html.

20. U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, “Waste Confidence Decision,” Federal Register, Vol. 49, No. 171 (Washington, DC: 

August 31, 1984), http://pbadupws.nrc.gov/docs/ML1233/ML12335A680.pdf.

21. U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, “Waste Confidence Decision Review,” Federal Register, Vol. 55, No. 181 (Washington, 

DC: September 18, 1990), http://pbadupws.nrc.gov/docs/ML1209/ML120960684.pdf.

22. U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, “Waste Confidence Decision Update,” Federal Register, Vol. 75, No. 246 (Washington, 

DC: December 23, 2010), pp. 81037-81076, https://www.federalregister.gov/articles/2010/12/23/2010-31637/wasteconfidence-decision-update.

23. U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit, “State of New York v. Nuclear Regulatory Commission and United 

States of America” (Washington, DC: June 8, 2012), http://www.cadc.uscourts.gov/internet/opinions.nsf/57ACA94A8FFA

D8AF85257A1700502AA4/$file/11-1045-1377720.pdf.

24. U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, “CLI-12-16, Memorandum and Order” (Washington, DC: August 7, 2012), http://www.

nrc.gov/reading-rm/doc-collections/commission/orders/2012/2012-16cli.pdf.

25. U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, “NRC Directs Staff to Conduct Two-Year Environmental Study and Revision to 

Waste Confidence Rule” (Washington, DC: September 6, 2012), http://www.nrc.gov/reading-rm/doc-collections/

news/2012/12-098.pdf.

Endnotes for Legislation and regulations
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013 21

Legislation and regulations

26. U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, “Effect of timely renewal application” (Washington, DC: December 18, 2012), http://

www.nrc.gov/reading-rm/doc-collections/cfr/part002/part002-0109.html.

27. U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, “Domestic Licensing of Production and Utilization Facilities” (Washington, DC: 

December 18, 2012), http://www.nrc.gov/reading-rm/doc-collections/cfr/part050/.

28. Tennessee Valley Authority, “TVA’s Bellefonte Resets Work Priorities” (Hollywood, AL: March 15, 2012), http://www.tva.

gov/news/releases/janmar12/bln.htm.

29. U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, “Licenses, Certifications, and Approvals for Domestic Nuclear Power Plants” 

(Washington, DC: December 18, 2012), http://www.nrc.gov/reading-rm/doc-collections/cfr/part052/.

30. U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, “Deciphering the Waste Confidence Order” (Washington, DC: August 9, 2012), http://

public-blog.nrc-gateway.gov/2012/08/09/deciphering-the-waste-confidence-order/.

31. Clean Air Act, 42 U.S.C. 7412 (2011), http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/USCODE-2011-title42/pdf/USCODE-2011-title42-

chap85-subchapI-partA.pdf.

32. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, “National Emission Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants for Major Sources: 

Industrial, Commercial, and Institutional Boilers; Final Rule,” Federal Register, Vol. 76, No. 54 (Washington, DC: March 21, 

2011) pp. 15,608-15,702, http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/FR-2011-03-21/pdf/2011-4494.pdf.

33. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, “Definitions,” Code of Federal Regulations, 40 CFR §63.2 (July 1, 2012), http://www.

gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/CFR-2012-title40-vol10/pdf/CFR-2012-title40-vol10-part63-subpartA.pdf, p. 16.

34. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, “Definitions,” Code of Federal Regulations, 40 CFR §63.2 (July 1, 2012), http://www.

gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/CFR-2012-title40-vol10/pdf/CFR-2012-title40-vol10-part63-subpartA.pdf, pp. 13-14.

35. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, “National Emission Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants for Major Sources: 

Industrial, Commercial, and Institutional Boilers and Process Heaters; Proposed Rule,” Federal Register, Vol. 76, No. 247 

(Washington, DC: December 23, 2011), p. 80,622, http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/FR-2011-12-23/pdf/2011-31667.pdf.

36. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, “National Emission Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants for Area Sources: Industrial, 

Commercial, and Institutional Boilers; Final Rule,” Federal Register, Vol. 76, No. 54 (Washington, DC: March 21, 2011), p. 

15,579, http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/FR-2011-03-21/pdf/2011-4493.pdf.

37. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, “National Emission Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants for Major Sources: 

Industrial, Commercial, and Institutional Boilers and Process Heaters; Final Rule,” Federal Register, Vol. 76, No. 54 (Washington, 

DC: March 21, 2011), p. 15,695, http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/FR-2011-03-21/pdf/2011-4494.pdf.

38. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, “National Emission Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants for Major Sources: 

Industrial, Commercial, and Institutional Boilers and Process Heaters; Final Rule,” Federal Register, Vol. 76, No. 54 (Washington, 

DC: March 21, 2011), pp. 15,689-15,691, http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/FR-2011-03-21/pdf/2011-4494.pdf.

39. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, “National Emission Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants for Major Sources: 

Industrial, Commercial, and Institutional Boilers and Process Heaters; Final Rule,” Federal Register, Vol. 76, No. 54 (Washington, 

DC: March 21, 2011), p. 15,615, http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/FR-2011-03-21/pdf/2011-4494.pdf.

40. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, “National Emission Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants for Major Sources: 

Industrial, Commercial, and Institutional Boilers and Process Heaters; Final Rule,” Federal Register, Vol. 76, No. 54 (Washington, 

DC: March 21, 2011), p. 15,696, http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/FR-2011-03-21/pdf/2011-4494.pdf.

41. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, “National Emission Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants for Major Sources: 

Industrial, Commercial, and Institutional Boilers and Process Heaters,” Federal Register, Vol. 76, No. 54 (Washington, DC: 

March 21, 2011), p. 15,665, http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/FR-2011-03-21/pdf/2011-4494.pdf.

42. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, “National Emission Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants for Area Sources: Industrial, 

Commercial, and Institutional Boilers; Final Rule,” Federal Register, Vol. 76, No. 54 (Washington, DC: March 21, 2011), p. 

15,594, http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/FR-2011-03-21/pdf/2011-4493.pdf.

43. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, “National Emission Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants for Area Sources: Industrial, 

Commercial, and Institutional Boilers, Final Rule,” Federal Register, Vol. 76, No. 54 (Washington, DC: March 21, 2011), pp. 

15,601-15,602, http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/FR-2011-03-21/pdf/2011-4493.pdf.

44. The eligible technology, and even the definition of the technology or fuel category, will vary by state. For example, one state’s 

definition of renewables may include hydroelectric power generation, while another’s definition may not. Table 3 provides 

more detail on how the technology or fuel category is defined by each state.

45. More information about the Database of State Incentives for Renewables & Efficiency can be found at http://www.dsireusa.

org/incentives.

46. Database of State Incentives for Renewables & Efficiency, http://www.dsireusa.org/rpsdata/index.cfm.
22 U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013

Legislation and regulations

47. Pyrolysis is defined as the thermal decomposition of biomass at high temperatures (greater than 400 °F, or 200 °C) in the 

absence of air.

48. California Legislative Information, “Assembly Bill No. 32: California Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006” (Sacramento, CA: 

September 27, 2006), http://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/billNavClient.xhtml?bill_id=200520060AB32.

49. California Air Resources Board, “AB 32 Scoping Plan Functional Equivalent Document (FED)” (Sacramento, CA: May 16, 

2012), http://www.arb.ca.gov/cc/scopingplan/fed.htm.

50. State of California, “Final Regulation Order, Subchapter 10 Climate Change, Article 5, Sections 95800 to 96023, Title 17, 

Article 5: California Cap on Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Market-Based Compliance Mechanisms” (Sacramento, CA: 

December 22, 2011), pp. 47-49, http://www.arb.ca.gov/regact/2010/capandtrade10/finalrevfro.pdf.

51. State of California, “Final Regulation Order, Subchapter 10 Climate Change, Article 5, Sections 95800 to 96023, Title 17, 

Article 5: California Cap on Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Market-Based Compliance Mechanisms” (Sacramento, CA: 

December 22, 2011), http://www.arb.ca.gov/regact/2010/capandtrade10/finalrevfro.pdf.

52. California Air Resources Board, “California Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory: 2000-2009” (Sacramento, CA: December 

2011), p. 10, http://www.arb.ca.gov/cc/inventory/pubs/reports/ghg_inventory_00-09_report.pdf.

53. California Air Resources Board, “Updated Information Digest, Regulation to Implement the California Cap-and-Trade Program” 

(Sacramento, CA: December 14, 2011), p. 6, http://www.arb.ca.gov/regact/2010/capandtrade10/finuid.pdf.

54. For years 2021-2040 held constant in AEO2013 at 2020 levels.

55. California Air Resources Board, “Appendix J, Allowance Allocation” (Sacramento, CA: October 18, 2010), p. J-12, http://www.

arb.ca.gov/regact/2010/capandtrade10/capv4appj.pdf.

56. California Air Resources Board, “California Air Resources Board Quarterly Auction 1” (Sacramento, CA: November 19, 2012), 

http://www.arb.ca.gov/cc/capandtrade/auction/november_2012/auction1_results_2012q4nov.pdf.

57. California Environmental Protection Agency, “Press Release: California Applauds Québec on Adoption of Amended Cap-andTrade Program” (Sacramento, CA: December 13, 2012), http://www.calepa.ca.gov/PressRoom/Releases/2012/Quebec.pdf.

58. See Assembly Bill 32, Section 38562(B)(8), http://www.leginfo.ca.gov/pub/05-06/bill/asm/ab_0001-0050/ab_32_

bill_20060927_chaptered.pdf. The evaluation of “leakage risk” and the amount allocated to prevent leakage will be revisited 

by CARB during each of the periodic reviews of the cap-and-trade program, which will occur at least once every three-year 

compliance cycle.

59. A price that has been adjusted for allowance costs.

60. State of California, “Final Regulation Order, Subchapter 10 Climate Change, Article 5, Sections 95800 to 96023, Title 17, 

California Code of Regulations: California Cap on Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Market-Based Compliance Mechanisms” 

(Sacramento, CA: December 22, 2011), http://www.arb.ca.gov/regact/2010/capandtrade10/finalrevfro.pdf. Note: The final 

regulation states that reserves are held at 1 percent in compliance period 1, 4 percent in compliance period 2, and 7 percent 

in compliance period 3. For modeling purposes, post-2020 reserves are set to 0 percent.

61. State of California, “Final Regulation Order, Subchapter 10. Climate Change, Article 4. Regulations to Achieve Greenhouse 

Gas Reductions, Subarticle 7. Low Carbon Fuel Standard” (Sacramento, CA: January 13, 2010), http://www.arb.ca.gov/

regact/2009/lcfs09/finalfro.pdf.

62. California Air Resources Board, “Third Notice of Public Availability of Modified Text and Availability of Additional Documents 

and Information” (Sacramento, CA: September 17, 2012), http://www.arb.ca.gov/regact/2011/lcfs2011/lcfs3rdnot.pdf.

63. State of California, “Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) Supplemental Regulatory Advisory 10-04B” (Sacramento, CA: January 

1, 2012), http://www.arb.ca.gov/fuels/lcfs/123111lcfs-rep-adv.pdf.

64. California Air Resources Board, “LCFS Enforcement Injunction is Lifted, All Outstanding Reports Now Due April 30, 2012” 

(Sacramento, CA: April 24, 2012), http://www.arb.ca.gov/fuels/lcfs/LCFS_Stay_Granted.pdf.
Issues in focus
24 U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013

Issues in focus

Introduction

The “Issues in focus” section of the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) provides an in-depth discussion on topics of special significance, 

including changes in assumptions and recent developments in technologies for energy production and consumption. Selected 

quantitative results are available in Appendix D. The first topic updates a discussion included in a number of previous AEOs that 

compared the Reference case to the results of two cases with different assumptions about the future course of existing energy 

policies. One case assumes the elimination of sunset provisions in existing energy policies; that is, the policies are assumed 

not to terminate as they would under current law. The other case assumes the extension or expansion of a selected group of 

existing policies—corporate average fuel economy (CAFE) standards, appliance standards, and production tax credits (PTCs)—in 

addition to the elimination of sunset provisions.

Other topics discussed in this section, as identified by numbered subsections below, include (2) oil price and production trends in 

Annual Energy Outlook 2013 (AEO2013); (3) petroleum import dependence under a range of cases; (4) competition between coal 

and natural gas in the electric power sector; (5) nuclear power in AEO2013; and (6) the impact of natural gas liquids (NGL) growth.

The topics explored in this section represent current and emerging issues in energy markets. However, many of the topics 

discussed in previous AEOs also remain relevant today. Table 4 provides a list of titles from the 2012, 2011, and 2010 AEOs that 

are likely to be of interest to today’s readers—excluding topics that are updated in AEO2013. The articles listed in Table 4 can be 

found on the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) website at http://www.eia.gov/analysis/reports.cfm?t=128.

1. No Sunset and Extended Policies cases

Background

The AEO2013 Reference case is best described as a current laws and regulations case because it generally assumes that existing 

laws and regulations remain unchanged throughout the projection period, unless the legislation establishing them sets a sunset 

date or specifies how they will change. The Reference case often serves as a starting point for analysis of proposed changes in 

legislation or regulations. While the definition of the Reference case is relatively straightforward, there may be considerable 

interest in a variety of alternative cases that reflect updates or extensions of current laws and regulations. Areas of particular 

interest include:

•	 Laws or regulations that have a history of being extended beyond their legislated sunset dates. Examples include the various 

tax credits for renewable fuels and technologies, which have been extended with or without modifications several times since 

their initial implementation.

Table 4. Key analyses from “Issues in focus” in recent AEOs

AEO2012 AEO2011 AEO2010

Potential efficiency improvements and their 

impacts on end-use energy demand

Increasing light-duty vehicle greenhouse gas 

and fuel economy standards for model years 

2017 to 2025

Energy intensity trends in AEO2010

Energy impacts of proposed CAFE standards 

for light-duty vehicles, model years 2017 to 

2025

Fuel consumption and greenhouse gas 

emissions standards for heavy-duty vehicles

Natural gas as a fuel for heavy trucks: issues 

and incentives

Impacts of a breakthrough in battery vehicle 

technology

Potential efficiency improvements in 

alternative cases for appliance standards 

and building codes

Factors affecting the relationship between 

crude oil and natural gas prices

Heavy-duty natural gas vehicles Potential of offshore crude oil and natural 

gas resources

Importance of low permeability natural gas 

reservoirs

Changing structure of the refining industry Prospects for shale gas U.S. nuclear power plants: continued life or 

replacement after 60?

Changing environment for fuel use in 

electricity generation

Cost uncertainties for new electric power 

plants

Accounting for carbon dioxide emissions 

from biomass energy combustion

Nuclear power in AEO2012 Carbon capture and storage: economics and 

issues

Potential impact of minimum pipeline 

throughput constraints on Alaska North 

Slope oil production

Power sector environmental regulations on 

the horizon

U.S. crude oil and natural gas resource 

uncertainty

Evolving Marcellus Shale gas resource 

estimates
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013 25

Issues in focus

•	 Laws or regulations that call for periodic updating of initial specifications. Examples include appliance efficiency standards 

issued by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and CAFE and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions standards for vehicles issued 

by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA).

•	 Laws or regulations that allow or require the appropriate regulatory agency to issue new or revised regulations under certain 

conditions. Examples include the numerous provisions of the Clean Air Act that require EPA to issue or revise regulations if it 

finds that an environmental quality target is not being met.

Two alternative cases are discussed in this section to provide some insight into the sensitivity of results to scenarios in which 

existing tax credits or other policies do not sunset. No attempt is made to cover the full range of possible uncertainties in these 

areas, and readers should not view the cases discussed as EIA projections of how laws or regulations might or should be changed. 

The cases examined here look only at federal laws or regulations and do not examine state laws or regulations.

Analysis cases

The two cases prepared—the No Sunset case and the Extended Policies case—incorporate all the assumptions from the AEO2013

Reference case, except as identified below. Changes from the Reference case assumptions include the following.

No Sunset case

Tax credits for renewable energy sources in the utility, industrial, and buildings sectors, or for energy-efficient equipment in the 

buildings sector, are assumed to be extended, including the following:

•	 The PTC of 2.2 cents per kilowatthour and the 30-percent investment tax credit (ITC) available for wind, geothermal, biomass, 

hydroelectric, and landfill gas resources, assumed in the Reference case to expire at the end of 2012 for wind and 2013 for the 

other eligible resources, are extended indefinitely. On January 1, 2013, Congress passed a one-year extension of the PTC for 

wind and modified the qualification rules for all eligible technologies; these changes are not included in the AEO2013 Reference 

case, which was completed in December 2012, but they are discussed in a box on page 22.

•	 For solar power investments, a 30-percent ITC that is scheduled to revert to a 10-percent credit in 2016 is, instead, assumed 

to be extended indefinitely at 30 percent.

•	 In the buildings sector, personal tax credits for the purchase of renewable equipment, including photovoltaics (PV), are assumed 

to be extended indefinitely, as opposed to ending in 2016 as prescribed by current law. The business ITCs for commercialsector generation technologies and geothermal heat pumps are assumed to be extended indefinitely, as opposed to expiring in 

2016; and the business ITC for solar systems is assumed to remain at 30 percent instead of reverting to 10 percent. On January 

1, 2013, legislation was enacted to reinstate tax credits for energy-efficient homes and selected residential appliances. The tax 

credits that had expired on December 31, 2011, are now extended through December 31, 2013. This change is not included in 

the Reference case.

•	 In the industrial sector, the 10-percent ITC for combined heat and power (CHP) that ends in 2016 in the AEO2013 Reference 

case [65] is assumed to be preserved through 2040, the end of the projection period.

Extended Policies case

The Extended Policies case includes additional updates to federal equipment efficiency standards that were not considered in the 

Reference case or No Sunset case. Residential and commercial end-use technologies eligible for incentives in the No Sunset case 

are not subject to new standards. Other than those exceptions, the Extended Policies case adopts the same assumptions as the 

No Sunset case, plus the following:

•	 Federal equipment efficiency standards are assumed to be updated at periodic intervals, consistent with the provisions in 

existing law, at levels based on ENERGY STAR specifications or on the Federal Energy Management Program purchasing 

guidelines for federal agencies, as applicable. Standards are also introduced for products that currently are not subject to 

federal efficiency standards.

•	 Updated federal energy codes for residential and commercial buildings increase by 30 percent in 2020 compared to the 

2006 International Energy Conservation Code in the residential sector and the American Society of Heating, Refrigerating 

and Air-Conditioning Engineers Building Energy Code 90.1-2004 in the commercial sector. Two subsequent rounds in 2023 

and 2026 each add an assumed 5-percent incremental improvement to building energy codes. The equipment standards 

and building codes assumed for the Extended Policies case are meant to illustrate the potential effects of those policies on 

energy consumption for buildings. No cost-benefit analysis or evaluation of impacts on consumer welfare was completed in 

developing the assumptions. Likewise, no technical feasibility analysis was conducted, although standards were not allowed to 

exceed the “maximum technologically feasible” levels described in DOE’s technical support documents.

•	 The AEO2013 Reference, No Sunset, and Extended Policies cases include both the attribute-based CAFE standards for lightduty vehicles (LDVs) in model year (MY) 2011 and the joint attribute-based CAFE and vehicle GHG emissions standards for 

MY 2012 to MY 2025. The Reference and No Sunset cases assume that the CAFE standards are then held constant at MY 

2025 levels in subsequent model years, although the fuel economy of new LDVs continues to rise modestly over time. The 
26 U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013

Issues in focus

Extended Policies case modifies the assumption in the Reference and No Sunset cases, assuming continued increases in CAFE 

standards after MY 2025. CAFE standards for new LDVs are assumed to increase by an annual average rate of 1.4 percent.

•	 In the industrial sector, the ITC for CHP is extended to cover all properties with CHP, no matter what the system size (instead of 

being limited to properties with systems smaller than 50 megawatts as in the Reference case [66]), which may include multiple 

units. Also, the ITC is modified to increase the eligible CHP unit cap to 25 megawatts from 15 megawatts. These extensions are 

consistent with previously proposed legislation.

Analysis results

The changes made to the Reference case assumptions in the No Sunset and Extended Policies cases generally lead to lower 

estimates for overall energy consumption, increased use of renewable fuels particularly for electricity generation and reduced 

energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. Because the Extended Policies case includes most of the assumptions in the No 

Sunset case but adds others, the effects of the Extended Policies case tend to be greater than those in the No Sunset case—but not 

in all cases, as discussed below. Although these cases show lower energy prices, because the tax credits and end-use efficiency 

standards lead to lower energy demand and reduce the costs of renewable technologies, appliance purchase costs are also affected. 

In addition, the government receives lower tax revenues as consumers and businesses take advantage of the tax credits.

Energy consumption

Total energy consumption in the No Sunset case is close to the level in the Reference case (Figure 13). Improvements in energy 

efficiency lead to reduced consumption in this case, but somewhat lower energy prices lead to relatively higher levels of 

consumption, partially offsetting the impact of improved efficiency. In 2040, total energy consumption in the Extended Policies 

case is 3.8 percent below the Reference case projection.

Buildings energy consumption

Renewable distributed generation (DG) technologies (PV systems and small wind turbines) provide much of the buildings-related 

energy savings in the No Sunset case. Extended tax credits in the No Sunset case spur increased adoption of renewable DG, leading 

to 61 billion kilowatthours of onsite electricity generation from DG systems in 2025, compared with 28 billion kilowatthours in the 

Reference case. Continued availability of the tax credits results in 137 billion kilowatthours of onsite electricity generation in 2040 

in the No Sunset case—more than three times the amount of onsite electricity generated in 2040 in the Reference case. Similar 

adoption of renewable DG occurs in the Extended Policies case. With the additional efficiency gains from assumed future standards 

and more stringent building codes, delivered energy consumption for buildings is 3.9 percent (0.8 quadrillion British thermal units 

[Btu]) lower in 2025 and 8.0 percent (1.7 quadrillion Btu) lower in 2040 in the Extended Policies case than in the Reference case. 

The reduction in 2040 is more than seven times as large as the 1.1-percent (0.2 quadrillion Btu) reduction in the No Sunset case.

Electricity use shows the largest reduction in the two alternative cases compared to the Reference case. Building electricity 

consumption is 1.3 percent and 5.8 percent lower, respectively, in the No Sunset and Extended Policies cases in 2025 and 2.1 

percent and 8.7 percent lower, respectively, in 2040 than in the Reference case, as onsite generation continues to increase and 

updated standards affect a greater share of the equipment stock in the Extended Policies case. Space heating and cooling are 

affected by the assumed standards and building codes, leading to significant savings in energy consumption for heating and 

cooling in the Extended Policies case. In 2040, delivered energy use for space heating in buildings is 9.6 percent lower, and energy 

use for space cooling is 20.3 percent lower, in the Extended Policies case than in the Reference case. In addition to improved 

standards and codes, extended tax credits for PV prompt 

increased adoption, offsetting some of the costs for purchased 

electricity for cooling. New standards for televisions and for 

personal computers and related equipment in the Extended 

Policies case lead to savings of 28.3 percent and 31.8 percent, 

respectively, in residential electricity use for this equipment 

in 2040 relative to the Reference case. Residential and 

commercial natural gas use declines from 8.1 quadrillion 

Btu in 2011 to 7.8 quadrillion Btu in 2025 and 7.2 quadrillion 

Btu in 2040 in the Extended Policies case, representing a 

2.2-percent reduction in 2025 and a 8.5-percent reduction in 

2040 relative to the Reference case.

Industrial energy consumption

The No Sunset case modifies the Reference case assumptions 

by extending the existing ITC for industrial CHP through 

2040. The Extended Policies case starts from the No Sunset 

case and expands the credit to include industrial CHP systems 

of all sizes and raises the maximum credit that can be claimed 

Reference

No Sunset

Extended Policies

History 2011 Projections

95

100

105

110

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

0

Figure 13. Total energy consumption in three cases, 

2005-2040 (quadrillion Btu)
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013 27

Issues in focus

from 15 megawatts of installed capacity to 25 megawatts. The changes result in 1.6 gigawatts of additional industrial CHP capacity 

in the No Sunset case compared with the Reference case in 2025 and 3.5 gigawatts of additional capacity in 2040. From 2025 

through 2040, more CHP capacity is installed in the No Sunset case than in the Extended Policy case. CHP capacity is 0.3 

gigawatts higher in the No Sunset Case than in the Extended Policies Case in 2025 and 1.2 gigawatts higher in 2040. Although the 

Extended Policies case includes a higher tax benefit for CHP than the No Sunset case, which by itself provides greater incentive 

to build CHP capacity, electricity prices are lower in the Extended Policies case than in the No Sunset case starting around 2020, 

and the difference increases over time. Lower electricity prices, all else equal, reduce the economic attractiveness of CHP. Also, 

the median size of industrial CHP units size is 10 megawatts [67], and many CHP systems are well within the 50-megawatt total 

system size, which means that relaxing the size constraint is not as strong an incentive for investment as is allowing the current 

tax credit for new CHP investments to continue after 2016.

Natural gas consumption averages 9.7 quadrillion Btu per year in the industrial sector from 2011 to 2040 in the No Sunset case—

about 0.1 quadrillion Btu, or 0.9 percent, above the level in the Reference case. Over the course of the projection, the difference 

in natural gas consumption between the No Sunset case and the Reference case is small but increases steadily. In 2025, natural 

gas consumption in the No Sunset case is approximately 0.1 quadrillion Btu higher than in the Reference Case, and in 2040 it is 

0.2 quadrillion Btu higher. Natural gas consumption in the Extended Policies case is virtually the same as in the No Sunset case 

through 2030. After 2030, refinery use of natural gas stabilizes in the Extended Policies case as continued increases in CAFE 

standards reduce demand for petroleum products.

Transportation energy consumption

The Extended Policies case differs from the Reference and No Sunset cases in assuming that the CAFE standards recently finalized 

by EPA and NHTSA for MY 2017 through 2025 (which call for a 4.1-percent annual average increase in fuel economy for new 

LDVs) are extended through 2040 with an assumed average annual increase of 1.4 percent. Sales of vehicles that do not rely 

solely on a gasoline internal combustion engines for both motive and accessory power (including those that use diesel, alternative 

fuels, or hybrid electric systems) play a substantial role in meeting the higher fuel economy standards after 2025, growing to 

almost 72 percent of new LDV sales in 2040, compared with about 49 percent in the Reference case.

LDV energy consumption declines in the Reference case from 16.1 quadrillion Btu (8.7 million barrels per day) in 2011 to 14.0 

quadrillion Btu (7.7 million barrels per day) in 2025 as a result of the increase in CAFE standards. Extension of the increases 

in CAFE standards in the Extended Policies case further reduces LDV energy consumption to 11.9 quadrillion Btu (6.5 million 

barrels per day) in 2040, or about 8 percent lower than in the Reference case. Petroleum and other liquid fuels consumption 

in the transportation sector is virtually identical through 2025 in the Reference and Extended Policies cases but declines in the 

Extended Policies case from 13.3 million barrels per day in 2025 to 12.3 million barrels per day in 2040, as compared with 13.0 

million barrels per day in 2040 in the Reference case (Figure 14).

Renewable electricity generation

The extension of tax credits for renewables through 2040 would, over the long run, lead to more rapid growth in renewable generation 

than in the Reference case. When the renewable tax credits are extended without extending energy efficiency standards, as assumed 

in the No Sunset case, there is a significant increase in renewable generation in 2040 compared to the Reference case (Figure 15). 

Extending both renewable tax credits and energy efficiency standards in the Extended Policies case results in more modest growth 

12

13

14

15

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

History 2011 Projections

Reference

No Sunset

Extended Policies

0

Figure 14. Consumption of petroleum and other 

liquids for transportation in three cases, 2005-2040 

(million barrels per day)

0

500

1,000

1,500

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

History 2011 Projections

Reference

No Sunset

Extended Policies

Figure 15. Renewable electricity generation in three 

cases, 2005-2040 (billion kilowatthours)
28 U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013

Issues in focus

in renewable generation, because renewable generation is a significant source of new generation to meet load growth, and enhanced 

energy efficiency standards tend to reduce overall electricity consumption and the need for new generation resources.

The AEO2013 Reference case does not reflect the provisions of the American Taxpayer Relief Act of 2012 (P.L. 112-240) passed 

on January 1, 2013 [68], which extends the PTCs for renewable generation beyond what is included in the AEO2013 Reference 

case. While this legislation was completed too late for inclusion in the Reference case, EIA did complete an alternative case that 

examined key energy-related provisions of that legislation, the most important of which is the extension of the PTC for renewable 

generation. A brief summary of those results is presented in the box, “Effects of energy provisions in the American Taxpayer Relief 

Act of 2012.”

Effects of energy provisions in the American Taxpayer Relief Act of 2012

On January 1, 2013, Congress passed the American Taxpayer Relief Act of 2012 (ATRA). The law, among other things, extended 

several provisions for tax credits to the energy sector. Although the law was passed too late to be incorporated in the Annual 

Energy Outlook 2013 (AEO2013) Reference case, a special case was prepared to analyze some of its key provisions, including the 

extension of tax credits for utility-scale renewables, residential energy efficiency improvements, and biofuels [69]. The analysis 

found that the most significant impact on energy markets came from extending the production tax credits (PTCs) for utility-scale 

wind, and from changing the PTC qualification criteria from being in service on December 31, 2013, to being under construction 

by December 31, 2013, for all eligible utility-scale technologies. Although there is some uncertainty about what criteria will be 

used to define “under construction,” this analysis assumes that the effective length of the extension is equal to the typical project 

development time for a qualifying project. For wind, the effective extension is 3 years.

Compared with the AEO2013 Reference case, ATRA increases renewable generation, primarily from wind (Figure 16). Renewable 

generation in 2040 is about 2 percent higher in the ATRA case than in the Reference case, with the greatest growth occurring in 

the near term. In 2016, renewable generation in the ATRA case exceeds that in the Reference case by nearly 9 percent. Almost all 

the increase comes from wind generation, which in 2016 is about 34 percent higher in the ATRA case than in the Reference case. 

In 2040, however, wind generation is only 17 percent higher than projected in the Reference case. These results indicate that, 

while the short-term extension does result in additional wind generation capacity, some builds that otherwise would occur later in 

the projection period are moved up in time to take advantage 

of the extended tax credit. The increase in wind generation 

partially displaces other forms of generation in the Reference 

case, both renewable and nonrenewable—particularly solar, 

biomass, coal, and natural gas.

ATRA does not have significant effects on electricity or delivered 

natural gas prices and generally does not result in a difference 

of more than 1 percent either above or below Reference case 

prices. In the longer term (beyond 2020), electricity and natural 

gas prices generally both are slightly lower in the ATRA case, 

as increased wind capacity reduces variable fuel costs in the 

power sector and reduces the demand for natural gas.

Other ATRA provisions analyzed had minimal impact on all 

energy measures, primarily limited to short-term reductions 

in renewable fuel prices and a one-year window for residential 

customers to get tax credits for certain efficiency expenditures. 

Provisions of the act not addressed in this analysis are likely 

to have only modest impacts because of their limited scale, 

scope, and timing.

In the No Sunset and Extended Policies cases, renewable generation more than doubles from 2011 to 2040, as compared with 

a 64-percent increase in the Reference case. In 2040, the share of total electricity generation accounted for by renewables is 

between 22 and 23 percent in both the No Sunset and Extended Policies cases, as compared with 16 percent in the Reference case.

Construction of wind-generation units slows considerably in the Reference case from recent construction rates, following the 

assumed expiration of the tax credit for wind power in 2012. The combination of slow growth in electricity demand, little impact 

from state-level renewable generation requirements, and low prices for competing fuels like natural gas keeps growth relatively 

low until around 2025, when load growth finally catches up with installed capacity, and natural gas prices increase to a level at 

which wind is a cost-competitive option in some regions. Extending the PTC for wind spurs a brief surge in near-term development 

by 2014, but the factors that limit development through 2025 in the Reference case still largely apply, and growth from 2015 to 

about 2025 is slow, in spite of the availability of tax credits during the 10-year period. When the market picks up again after 2025, 

availability of the tax credits spurs additional wind development over Reference case levels. Wind generation in the No Sunset case 

is about 27 percent higher than in the Reference case in 2025 and 86 percent higher in 2040.

AEO2013 Reference case ATRA

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

2012 2013 2014 2015 2020 2030 2040

Geothermal

Solar

Wood/biomass

Hydropower

Wind

MSW

Figure 16. Renewable electricity generation in two 

cases, 2012-2040 (billion kilowatthours)
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013 29

Issues in focus

In the near term, the continuation of tax credits for solar generation results in a continuation of recent growth trends for this 

resource. The solar tax credits are assumed to expire in 2016 in the Reference case, after which the growth of solar generation 

slows significantly. Eventually, economic conditions become favorable for utility-scale solar without the federal tax credits, and the 

growth rate picks up substantially after 2025. With the extension of the ITC, growth continues throughout the projection period. 

Solar generation in the No Sunset case in 2040 is more than 30 times the 2011 level and more than twice the level in 2040 in the 

Reference case.

The impacts of the tax credit extensions on geothermal and biomass generation are mixed. Although the tax credits do apply to 

both geothermal and biomass resources, the structure of the tax credits, along with other market dynamics, makes wind and solar 

projects relatively more attractive. Over most of the projection period, geothermal and biomass generation are lower with the tax 

credits available than in the Reference case. In 2040, generation from both resources in the No Sunset and Extended Policies cases 

is less than 10 percent below the Reference case levels. However, generation growth lags significantly through 2020 with the tax 

credit extensions, and generation in 2020 from both resources is about 20 percent lower in the No Sunset and Extended Policy 

cases than in the Reference case.

After 2025, renewable generation in the No Sunset and Extended Policies cases starts to increase more rapidly than in the Reference 

case. As a result, generation from nuclear and fossil fuels is below Reference case levels. Natural gas represents the largest source 

of displaced generation. In 2040, electricity generation from natural gas is 13 percent lower in the No Sunset case and 16 percent 

lower in the Extended Policies case than in the Reference case (Figure 17).

Energy-related CO2 emissions

In the No Sunset and Extended Policies cases, lower overall fossil energy use leads to lower levels of energy-related CO2 emissions 

than in the Reference case. In the Extended Policies case, the emissions reduction is larger than in the No Sunset case. From 2011 

to 2040, energy-related CO2 emissions are reduced by a cumulative total of 4.6 billion metric tons (a 2.8-percent reduction 

over the period) in the Extended Policies case relative to the Reference case projection, as compared with 1.7 billion metric tons 

(a 1.0-percent reduction over the period) in the No Sunset case (Figure 18). The increase in fuel economy standards assumed 

for new LDVs in the Extended Policies case is responsible for 11.4 percent of the total cumulative reduction in CO2 emissions 

from 2011 to 2040 in comparison with the Reference case. The balance of the reduction in CO2 emissions is a result of greater 

improvement in appliance efficiencies and increased penetration of renewable electricity generation.

Most of the emissions reductions in the No Sunset case result from increases in renewable electricity generation. Consistent 

with current EIA conventions and EPA practice, emissions associated with the combustion of biomass for electricity generation 

are not counted, because they are assumed to be balanced by carbon absorption when the plant feedstock is grown. Relatively 

small incremental reductions in emissions are attributable to renewables in the Extended Policies case, mainly because electricity 

demand is lower than in the Reference case, reducing the consumption of all fuels used for generation, including biomass.

In both the No Sunset and Extended Policies cases, water heating, space cooling, and space heating together account for most 

of the emissions reductions from Reference case levels in the buildings sector. In the industrial sector, the Extended Policies case 

projects reduced emissions as a result of decreases in electricity purchases and petroleum use.

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

History 2011 Projections

Reference

No Sunset

Extended Policies

Figure 17. Electricity generation from natural gas in 

three cases, 2005-2040 (billion kilowatthours)

5,000

5,500

6,000

6,500

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

History 2011 Projections

0

Reference

No Sunset

Extended Policies

Figure 18. Energy-related carbon dioxide emissions 

in three cases, 2005-2040 (million metric tons)
30 U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013

Issues in focus

Energy prices and tax credit payments

With lower levels of fossil energy use and more consumption of renewable fuels stimulated by tax credits in the No Sunset and 

Extended Policies cases, energy prices are lower than in the Reference case. In 2040, average delivered natural gas prices (2011 

dollars) are $0.29 per million Btu (2.7 percent) and $0.59 per million Btu (5.4 percent) lower in the No Sunset and Extended 

Policies cases, respectively, than in the Reference case (Figure 19), and electricity prices are 3.9 percent and 6.3 percent lower 

than in the Reference case (Figure 20).

The reductions in energy consumption and CO2 emissions in the Extended Policies case are accompanied by higher equipment 

costs for consumers and revenue reductions for the U.S. government. From 2013 to 2040, residential and commercial consumers 

spend, on average, an additional $20 billion per year (2011 dollars) for newly purchased end-use equipment, DG systems, and 

residential building shell improvements in the Extended Policies case as compared with the Reference case. On the other hand, 

residential and commercial customers save an average of $30 billion per year on energy purchases.

Tax credits paid to consumers in the buildings sector (or, from the government’s perspective, reduced revenue) in the No Sunset 

case average $4 billion (2011 dollars) more per year than in the Reference case, which assumes that existing tax credits expire as 

currently scheduled, mostly by 2016.

The largest response to federal tax incentives for new renewable generation is seen in the No Sunset case, with extension of the 

PTC and the 30-percent ITC resulting in annual average reductions in government tax revenues of approximately $2.3 billion from 

2011 to 2040, as compared with $650 million per year in the Reference case.

2. Oil price and production trends in AEO2013

The benchmark oil price in AEO2013 is based on spot prices for Brent crude oil (commonly cited as Dated Brent in trade publications), 

an international benchmark for light sweet crude oil. The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) price has diverged from Brent and other 

benchmark prices over the past few years as a result of rapid growth in U.S. midcontinent and Canadian oil production, which has 

overwhelmed the transportation infrastructure needed to move crude oil from Cushing, Oklahoma, where WTI is quoted, to the 

Gulf Coast. EIA expects the WTI discount to the Brent price level to decrease over time as additional pipeline projects come on 

line, and will continue to report WTI prices (a critical reference point for the value of growing production in the U.S. midcontinent), 

as well as imported refiner acquisition costs (IRAC).

AEO2013 projections of future oil supply include two broad categories: petroleum liquids and other liquid fuels. The term petroleum 

liquids refers to crude oil and lease condensate—which includes tight oil, shale oil, extra-heavy crude oil, and bitumen (i.e., oil 

sands, either diluted or upgraded), plant condensate, natural gas plant liquids (NGPL), and refinery gain. The term other liquids 

refers to oil shale (i.e., kerogen-to-liquids), gas-to-liquids (GTL), coal-to-liquids (CTL), and biofuels (including biomass-to-liquids).

The key factors determining long-term supply, demand, and prices for petroleum and other liquids can be summarized in four 

broad categories: the economics of non-Organization of the Petroleum-Exporting Countries (OPEC) petroleum liquids supply; OPEC 

investment and production decisions; the economics of other liquids supply; and world demand for petroleum and other liquids.

To reflect the significant uncertainty associated with future oil prices, EIA develops three price cases that examine the potential 

impacts of different oil price paths on U.S. energy markets (Figure 21). The three price cases are developed by adjusting the four 

key factors described above. The following sections discuss the adjustments made in AEO2013. Each price case represents one of 

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

History 2011 Projections

9

10

11

0

Reference

No Sunset

Extended Policies

Figure 20. Average electricity prices in three cases, 

2005-2040 (2011 cents per kilowatthour)

Reference

No Sunset

Extended Policies

0

4

8

12

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

History 2011 Projections

Figure 19. Average delivered prices for natural gas in 

three cases, 2005-2040 (2011 dollars per million Btu)
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013 31

Issues in focus

potentially many combinations of supply and demand that would result in the same price path. EIA does not assign probabilities 

to any of the oil price cases.

Because EIA’s oil price paths represent market equilibrium between supply and demand in terms of annual average prices, they do 

not show the price volatility that occurs over days, months, or years. As a frame of reference, over the past two decades, volatility 

within a single year has averaged about 30 percent [70]. Although that level of volatility could continue, the alternative oil price 

cases in AEO2013 assume smaller near-term price variation than in previous AEOs, because larger near-term price swings are 

expected to lead to market changes in supply or demand that would dampen the price.

The AEO2013 oil price cases represent internally consistent scenarios of world energy production, consumption, and economics. 

One interesting outcome of the three oil price cases is that, although the price paths diverge, interactions among the four key 

factors lead to nearly equal total volumes of world liquids supply in the three cases in the 2030 timeframe (Figure 22).

Reference case

Among the key factors defining the Reference case are the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) 

and non-OECD gross domestic product (GDP) growth rates and liquid fuels consumption per dollar of GDP. Both the OECD and 

non-OECD growth rates and liquids fuels consumption per dollar of GDP decline over the projection period in the Reference case. 

OPEC continues restricting production in a manner that keeps its market share of total liquid fuels production between 39 percent 

and 43 percent for most of the projection, rising to 43 percent in the final years. Most other liquid fuels production technologies 

are economical at Reference case prices. In the Reference case, 

the Brent price declines to $96 per barrel in 2015 and then 

increases over the remainder of the period, to $163 per barrel 

in 2040, as a result of demand increases and supply pressures.

OPEC production in the Reference case grows from 35 

million barrels per day in 2011 to 48 million barrels per day 

in 2040 (Figure 23). Although the OPEC resource base is 

sufficient to support much higher production levels, the 

OPEC countries have an incentive to restrict production in 

order to support higher prices and sustain revenues in the 

long term. The Reference case assumes that OPEC will 

maintain a cohesive policy of limiting supply growth, rather 

than maximizing total annual revenues. The Reference 

case also assumes that no geopolitical events will cause 

prolonged supply shocks in the OPEC countries that could 

further limit production growth.

Non-OPEC petroleum production grows significantly in the 

early years of the Reference case projection, to 55 million 

barrels per day in 2020 from 50 million barrels per day in 2011, 

primarily as a result of increased production from tight oil 

0

30

60

90

120

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

2011

Non-OPEC total

Non-OPEC petroleum

OPEC total

World total

History Projections

Figure 23. World petroleum and other liquids supply 

by source in the Reference case, 1990-2040 

(million barrels per day)

0

50

100

150

200

250

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

2011

Reference

High Oil Price

Low Oil Price

History Projections

Figure 21. Annual average spot price for Brent crude 

oil in three cases, 1990-2040 (2011 dollars per barrel)

60

80

100

120

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

2011

Reference

High Oil Price

Low Oil Price

0

History Projections

Figure 22. World petroleum and other liquids supply 

in three cases, 1990-2040 (million barrels per day)
32 U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013

Issues in focus

formations. After 2020, production growth continues at a slower pace, adding another 4 million barrels per day to net production 

in 2040, with production from new wells increasing slightly faster than the decline in production from existing wells. The growth 

in non-OPEC production results primarily from the development of new fields and the application of new technologies, such as 

enhanced oil recovery (EOR), horizontal drilling, and hydraulic fracturing, which increase recovery rates from existing fields. The 

average cost per barrel of non-OPEC oil production rises as production volumes increase, and the rising costs dampen further 

production growth.

Non-OPEC production of other liquids grows from 1.8 million barrels per day in 2011 to 4.6 million barrels per day in 2040, as 

Brent crude oil prices remain sufficiently high to make other liquids production technologies economically feasible. Non-OPEC 

liquids production in the Reference case totals 58 million barrels per day in 2020, 61 million barrels per day in 2030, and 64 million 

barrels per day in 2040.

Low Oil Price case

The AEO2013 Low Oil Price case assumes slower GDP growth for the non-OECD countries than in the Reference case. OPEC 

is less successful in restricting production in the Low Oil Price case, and as a result its share of total world liquids production 

increases to 49 percent in 2040. Despite lower Brent prices than in the Reference case, non-OPEC petroleum production 

levels are maintained at roughly 54 million barrels per day through 2030. After 2030, total non-OPEC production declines 

as existing fields are depleted and not fully replaced by production from new fields and more costly EOR technologies. With 

higher average costs for resource development in the non-OPEC countries, the Brent crude oil price in the Low Oil Price 

case is not sufficient to make all undeveloped fields economically viable. Non-OPEC petroleum production rises slightly in 

the projection, to 54 million barrels per day, before returning to roughly current levels of 51 million barrels per day in 2040. 

Non-OPEC production of other liquids grows more rapidly than in the Reference case, and in 2040 it is 25 percent higher 

than projected in the Reference case.

Brent crude oil prices fall below $80 per barrel in 2015 in the Low Oil Price case and decline further to just below $70 per barrel in 

2017, followed by a slow increase to $75 per barrel in 2040. In the near term, extra supply enters the market, and lower economic 

growth in the non-OECD countries leads to falling prices. The higher levels of OPEC petroleum production assumed in the Low Oil 

Price case keep prices from increasing appreciably in the long term.

OPEC’s ability to support higher oil prices is weakened by its inability to limit production as much as in the Reference case. 

Lower prices squeeze the revenues of OPEC members, increasing their incentive to produce beyond their quotas. As a result, 

OPEC liquids production increases to 54 million barrels per day in 2040. The lower prices in the Low Oil Price case cause 

a decline in OPEC revenue to the lowest level among the three cases, illustrating the relatively strong incentive for OPEC 

members to restrict supply.

High Oil Price case

In the High Oil Price case, non-OECD GDP growth is more rapid than projected in the Reference case, and liquid fuels consumption 

per unit of GDP in the non-OECD countries declines more slowly than in the Reference case. Continuing restrictions on oil 

production keep the OPEC market share of total liquid fuels production between 37 and 40 percent, with total oil production 

about 1.0 million barrels per day lower than in the Reference case. Despite higher Brent oil prices, non-OPEC petroleum production 

initially expands at about the same rate as in the Reference case because of limited access to existing resources and lower 

discovery rates. Non-OPEC production of other liquids grows strongly in response to higher prices, rising to 8 million barrels per 

day in 2040.

Brent crude oil prices in the High Oil Price case increase to $155 per barrel in 2020 and $237 per barrel in 2040 in reaction to very 

high demand for liquid fuels in the non-OECD countries. The robust price increase keeps total world demand within the range of 

expected production capabilities.

3. U.S. reliance on imported liquid fuels in alternative scenarios

Liquid fuels [71] play a vital role in the U.S. energy system and economy, and access to affordable liquid fuels has contributed to 

the nation’s economic prosperity. However, the extent of U.S. reliance on imported oil has often been raised as a matter of concern 

over the past 40 years. U.S. net imports of petroleum and other liquid fuels as a share of consumption have been one of the mostwatched indicators in national and global energy analyses. After rising steadily from 1950 to 1977, when it reached 47 percent 

by the most comprehensive measure, U.S. net import dependence declined to 27 percent in 1985. Between 1985 and 2005, net 

imports of liquid fuels as a share of consumption again rose, reaching 60 percent in 2005. Since that time, however, the trend 

toward growing U.S. dependence on liquid fuels imports has again reversed, with the net import share falling to an estimated 

41 percent in 2012, and with EIA projecting further significant declines in 2013 and 2014. The decline in net import dependence 

since 2005 has resulted from several disparate factors, and continued changes in those and other factors will determine how this 

indicator evolves in the future. Key questions include:
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013 33

Issues in focus

•	 What are the key determinants of U.S. liquid fuels supply and demand?

•	 Will the supply and demand trends that have reduced dependence on net imports since 2005 intensify or abate?

•	 What supply and demand developments could yield an outcome in which the United States is no longer a net importer of 

liquid fuels?

This discussion considers potential changes to the U.S. energy system that are inherently speculative and should be viewed as 

what-if cases. The four cases that are discussed include two cases (Low Oil and Gas Resources and High Oil and Gas Resources) 

in which only the supply assumptions are varied, and two cases (Low/No Net Imports and High Net Imports) in which both supply 

and demand assumptions change. The changes in these cases generate wide variation from the liquid fuels import dependence 

values seen in the AEO2013 Reference case, but they should not be viewed as spanning the range of possible outcomes. Cases 

in which both supply and demand assumptions are modified show the greatest changes. In the Low/No Net Imports case, the 

United States ceases to be a net liquid fuels importer in the mid-2030s, and by 2040 U.S. net exports are 8 percent of total U.S. 

liquid fuel production. In contrast, in the High Net Imports case, net petroleum import dependence is above 44 percent in 2040, 

higher than the Reference case level of 37 percent but still well below the 60-percent level seen in 2005. Cases in which only 

supply assumptions are varied show intermediate levels of change in liquid fuels import dependence.

As the case names suggest, the Low Oil and Gas Resource case incorporates less-optimistic oil and natural gas resource 

assumptions than those in the Reference case, while the High Oil and Gas Resource case does the opposite. The other two 

cases combine different oil and natural gas resource assumptions with changes in assumptions that influence the demands 

for liquid fuels. The Low/No Net Imports case simulates an environment in which U.S. energy production grows rapidly while 

domestic consumption of liquid fuels declines. Conversely, the High Net Imports case combines the Low Oil and Gas Resource 

case assumptions with demand-related assumptions including slower improvements in vehicle efficiency, higher levels of vehicle 

miles traveled (VMT) relative to the Reference case, and reduced use of alternative transportation fuels.

Resource assumptions

A key contributing factor to the recent decline in net import dependence has been the rapid growth of U.S. oil production from tight 

onshore formations, which has followed closely after the rapid growth of natural gas production from similar types of resources. 

Projections of future production trends inevitably reflect many uncertainties regarding the actual level of resources available, the 

difficulty in extracting them, and the evolution of the technologies (and associated costs) used to recover them. To represent 

these uncertainties, the assumptions used in the High and Low Oil and Gas Resource cases represent significant deviations from 

the Reference case.

Estimates of technically recoverable resources from the rapidly developing tight oil formations are particularly uncertain and change 

over time as new information is gained through drilling, production, and technology experimentation. Over the past decade, as 

more tight and shale formations have gone into commercial production, estimates of technically and economically recoverable 

resources have generally increased. Technically recoverable resource estimates, however, embody many assumptions that might 

not prove to be true over the long term, over the entire range of tight or shale formations, or even within particular formations. For 

example, the tight oil resource estimates in the Reference case assume that production rates achieved in a limited portion of a given 

formation are representative of the entire formation, even though neighboring tight oil well production rates can vary widely. Any 

specific tight or shale formation can vary significantly across the formation with respect to relevant characteristics [72], resulting 

in widely varying rates of well production. The application of refinements to current technologies, as well as new technological 

advancements, can also have a significant but highly uncertain impact on the recoverability of tight and shale crude oil.

As shown in Table 5, the High and Low Oil and Gas Resource cases were developed with alternative crude oil and natural gas 

resource assumptions giving higher and lower technically recoverable resources than assumed in the Reference case. While these 

cases do not represent upper and lower bounds on future domestic oil and natural gas supply, they allow for an examination of the 

potential effects of higher and lower domestic supply on energy demand, imports, and prices.

The Low Oil and Gas Resource case only reflects the uncertainty around tight oil and shale gas resources. The resource estimates 

in the Reference case are based on crude oil and natural gas production rates achieved in a limited portion of the tight or shale 

formation and are assumed to be representative of the entire formation. However, the variability in formation characteristics 

described earlier can also affect the estimated ultimate recovery (EUR) of wells. For the Low Oil and Gas Resource case, the EUR 

per tight and shale well is assumed to be 50 percent lower than in the AEO2013 Reference case. All other resource assumptions 

are unchanged from the Reference case.

The High Oil and Gas Resource case reflects a broad-based increase in crude oil and natural gas resources. Optimism regarding 

increased supply has been buoyed by recent advances in crude oil and natural gas production that resulted in an unprecedented 

annual increase in U.S. crude oil production in 2012. The AEO2013 Reference case shows continued near-term production growth 

followed by a decline in U.S. production after 2020. The High Oil and Gas Resource case presents a scenario in which U.S. crude 

oil production continues to expand after about 2020 due to assumed higher technically recoverable tight oil resources, as well as 

undiscovered resources in Alaska and the offshore Lower 48 states. In addition, the maximum annual penetration rate for GTL 

technology is doubled compared to the Reference case.
34 U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013

Issues in focus

The tight and shale resources are increased by changing both the EUR per well and the well spacing. A doubling in tight and 

shale well EUR, when assumed to occur through raising the production type curves [73] across the board, is responsible for 

the significantly faster increases in production and is also a contributing factor in avoiding the production decline during the 

projection period. This assumption change is quite optimistic and may alternatively be considered as a proxy for other changes or 

combinations of changes that have yet to be observed.

Although initial production rates have increased over the past few years, it is too early to conclude that overall EURs have increased 

and will continue to increase. Instead, producers may just be recovering the resource more quickly, resulting in a more dramatic 

decline in production later, with little impact on the well’s overall EUR. The decreased well spacing reflects less the capability 

to drill wells closer together (i.e., avoid interference) and instead more the discovery of and production from other shale plays 

that are not yet in commercial development. These may either be stacked in the same formation or reflect future technological 

innovations that would bring into production plays that are otherwise not amenable to current hydraulic fracturing technology.

Other resources also are assumed to contribute to supply, as technological or other unforeseen changes improve their prospects. 

The resource assumptions for the offshore Lower 48 states in the High Oil and Gas Resource case reflect the possibility that 

resources may be substantially higher than assumed in the Reference case. Resource estimates for most of the U.S. Outer 

Continental Shelf are uncertain, particularly for resources in undeveloped regions where there has been little or no exploration 

and development activity, and where modern seismic survey data are lacking [74]. The increase in crude oil resources in Alaska 

reflects the possibility that there may be more crude oil on the North Slope, including tight oil. It does not, however, reflect an 

opening of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge to exploration or production activity. Finally, modest production from kerogen (oil 

shale) resources, which remains below 140,000 barrels per day through the 2040 projection horizon, is included in the High Oil 

and Gas Resource case.

Table 5. Differences in crude oil and natural gas assumptions across three cases

Resource

Reference

Average Range Low Oil and Gas Resource High Oil and Gas Resource

Shale gas, tight gas, and tight oil

Estimated Ultimate Recovery

Shale gas (billion cubic feet per well) 1.04 0.01-11.32 50% lower 100% higher

Tight gas (billion cubic feet per well) 0.5 0.01-11.02 50% lower 100% higher

Tight oil (thousand barrels per well) 135 1-778 50% lower 100% higher

Incremental technically recoverable resource

Natural gas (trillion cubic feet) -- -- (522) 1,044

Crude oil (billion barrels) -- -- (29) 58

Well spacing (acres) 100 20-406 No change 20-40

Incremental technically recoverable resource

Natural gas (trillion cubic feet) -- -- No change 3,601

Crude oil (billion barrels) -- -- No change 269

Alaska

North Slope onshore & offshore

Offshore production start year 2029 No change 2025

Undiscovered crude oil (billion barrels) 22 No change 50% higher

Incremental technically recoverable resource 

(billion barrels) -- No change 11

Tight oil technically recoverable resource 

(billion barrels) None No change 1.9

Lower 48 states

Offshore undiscovered resources

Crude oil (billion barrels) 40 No change 50% higher

Natural gas (trillion cubic feet) 208 No change 50% higher

Incremental technically recoverable resource

Natural gas (trillion cubic feet) -- No change 104

Crude oil (billion barrels) -- No change 20

Kerogen (oil shale)

Technically recoverable resource -- No change No change

2040 production (thousand barrels per day) None None 135
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013 35

Issues in focus

Demand assumptions

Reductions in demand for liquid fuels in some uses, such as personal transportation and home heating, coupled with slow growth 

in other applications, have been another key contributing factor in the decline of the nation’s net dependence on imported liquid 

fuels since 2005. As with supply assumptions, the key analytic assumptions that drive future trends in liquid fuels demand in 

EIA’s projections are subject to considerable uncertainty. The most important assumptions affecting future demand for liquids 

fuels include:

•	 The future level of activities that use liquid fuels, such as VMT

•	 The future efficiency of equipment that uses liquid fuels, such as automobiles, trucks, and aircraft

•	 The future extent of fuel switching that replaces liquid fuels with other fuel types, such as liquefied natural gas (LNG), biofuels, 

or electricity.

Two alternative sets of demand assumptions that lead to higher or lower demand for liquid fuels than in the AEO2013 Reference 

case are outlined below. The two alternative scenarios are then applied in conjunction with the High and Low Oil and Gas Resource 

cases to develop the Low/No Net Import and High Net Import cases.

Vehicle miles traveled

Projected fuel use by LDVs is directly proportional to light-duty VMT, which can be influenced by policy, but it is driven primarily 

by market factors, demography, and consumer preferences. All else being equal, VMT is more likely to grow when the driving-age 

population is growing, economic activity is robust, and fuel prices are moderate. For example, there is a strong linkage between 

economic activity, employment, and commuting. In addition, there is a correlation between income and discretionary travel that 

reinforces the economy-VMT link. Turning to demography, factors such as the population level, age distribution, and household 

composition are perhaps most important for VMT. For example, lower immigration would lead to a smaller U.S. population over 

time, lowering VMT. The aging of the U.S. population continues and will also have long-term effects on VMT trends, as older 

drivers do not behave in the same ways as younger or middle-aged drivers. At times, the factors that influence VMT intertwine 

in ways that change long-term trends in U.S. driving and fuel consumption. For example, the increase in two-income families that 

occurred beginning in the 1970s created a surge in VMT that involved both economic activity and demographics.

Alternative modes of travel affect VMT to the degree that the population substitutes other travel services for personal LDVs. The 

level of change is related to the cost, convenience, and geographic extent of mass transit, rail, biking, and pedestrian travel service 

options. Car-sharing services, which have grown in popularity in recent years, could discourage personal vehicle VMT by putting 

more of the cost of incremental vehicle use on the margin when compared with traditional vehicle ownership or leasing, where 

many of the major costs of vehicle use are incurred at the time a vehicle is acquired, registered, and insured. Improvements in the 

fuel efficiency of vehicles, however, could increase VMT by lowering the marginal costs of driving. In recent analyses supporting 

the promulgation of new final fuel economy and GHG standards for LDVs in MY 2017 through 2025, NHTSA and EPA applied a 

10-percent rebound in travel to reflect the lower fueling costs of more efficient vehicles [75]. Both higher and lower values for the 

rebound have been advanced by various analysts [76].

Other types of technological change also can affect projected VMT growth. E-commerce, telework, and social media can supplant 

(or complement) personal vehicle use. Some analysts have suggested an association between rising interest in social media 

and a decline in the rates at which driving-age youth secure driver licenses; however, that decline also could be related to recent 

weakness in the economy.

Many of the factors reviewed above were also addressed in the August 2012 National Petroleum Council Future Transportation 

Fuels study [77]. That study considered numerous specific research efforts, as well as available summaries of the literature on 

VMT, and concluded that the economic and demographic factors remain dominant. The VMT scenario adopted for most of the 

analysis in that study reflected declining compound annual growth rates of VMT over time, with the growth rate in VMT, which 

was 3.1 percent in the 1971-1995 and 2.0 percent in the 1996-2007 periods, falling to under 1 percent after 2035.

In the AEO2013 Reference case, the compound annual rate of growth in light-duty VMT over the period from 2011 to 2040 is 1.2 

percent—well below the historical record through 2005 but significantly higher than the average annual light-duty VMT growth 

rate of 0.7 percent from 2005 through 2011. The 2005-2011 period was marked by generally poor economic performance, high 

unemployment, and high liquid fuel prices, all of which likely contributed to lower VMT growth. While VMT growth rates are 

expected to rise as the economy and employment levels improve, it remains to be seen to what extent such effects might be 

counteracted or reinforced by some of the other market factors identified above.

The low demand scenario used in the Low/No Net Imports case holds the growth rate of light-duty VMT over the 2011-2040 

period at 0.2 percent per year, lower than its 2005-2011 growth rate. The application of a lower growth rate over a 29-year 

projection period results in total light-duty VMT 26 percent below the Reference case level in 2040. With population growth at 

0.9 percent per year, this implies a decline of 0.7 percent per year in VMT per capita. VMT per licensed driver, which increases by 

0.3 percent per year in the AEO2013 Reference case, declines at a rate of 0.8 percent per year in the Low/No Net Imports case. In 

the High Net Imports case, which assumes more robust demand than in the Reference case, the VMT projection remains close to 

that in the Reference case, with higher demand resulting from other factors.
36 U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013

Issues in focus

Vehicle efficiencies

Turning to vehicle efficiency, the rising fuel economy of new LDVs already has contributed to recent trends in liquid fuels use. 

Looking forward, the EPA and NHTSA have established joint CAFE and GHG emissions standards through MY 2025. The new CAFE 

standards result in a fuel economy, measured as a program compliance value, of 47.3 mpg for new LDVs in 2025, based on the 

distribution of production of passenger cars and light trucks by footprint in AEO2013. The EPA and NHTSA also have established a 

fuel efficiency and GHG emissions program for medium- and heavy-duty vehicles for MY 2014-18. The fuel consumption standards 

for MY 2014-15 set by NHTSA are voluntary, while the standards for MY 2016 and beyond are mandatory, except those for diesel 

engines, which are mandatory starting in 2017.

The AEO2013 Reference case does not consider any possible reduction in fuel economy standards resulting from the scheduled 

midterm review of the CAFE standards for MY 2023-25, or for any increase in fuel economy standards that may be put in place for 

model years beyond 2025. The low demand scenario in this article adopts the assumption that post-2025 LDV CAFE standards 

increase at an average annual rate of 1.4 percent, the same assumption made in the AEO2013 Extended Policies case. In contrast, 

the high demand scenario assumes some reduction in current CAFE standards following the scheduled midterm review.

Fuel switching

In the AEO2013 Reference case, fuel switching to natural gas in the form of compressed natural gas (CNG) and LNG already is 

projected to achieve significant penetration of natural gas as a fuel for heavy-duty trucks. In the Reference case, natural gas 

use in heavy-duty vehicles increases to 1 trillion cubic feet per year in 2040, displacing 0.5 million barrels per day of diesel 

use. The use of natural gas in the Reference case is economically driven. Even after the substantial costs of liquefaction or 

compression, fuel costs for LNG or CNG are expected to be well below the projected cost of diesel fuel on an energy-equivalent 

basis. The fuel cost advantage is expected to be large enough in the view of a significant number of operators to offset the 

considerably higher acquisition costs of vehicles equipped to use these fuels, in addition to offsetting other disadvantages, 

such as reduced maximum range without refueling, a lower number of refueling locations, reduced volume capacity in certain 

applications, and an uncertain resale market for vehicles using alternative fuels. For purposes of the low demand scenario for 

liquid fuels, factors limiting the use of natural gas in heavy-duty vehicles are assumed to be less significant, allowing for higher 

rates of market penetration.

Natural gas could also prove to be an attractive fuel in other transportation applications. The use of LNG as a fuel for rail 

transport, which had earlier been considered for environmental reasons, is now under active consideration by major U.S. 

railroads for economic reasons, motivated by the same gap between the cost of diesel fuel and LNG now and over the projection 

period. Because all modern railroad locomotives use electric motors to drive their wheels, a switch from diesel to LNG would 

entail the use of a different fuel to drive the onboard electric generation system. Retrofits have been demonstrated, but new 

locomotives with generating units specifically optimized for LNG could prove to be more attractive. Because railroads already 

maintain their own on-system refueling infrastructure, they may be less subject to the concern that truckers considering a 

switch to alternative fuel vehicles might have regarding the risks that natural gas refueling systems they require would not 

actually be built. The high concentration of ownership in the U.S. railroad industry could also facilitate a rapid switch toward LNG 

refueling, with the associated transition to new equipment, under the right circumstances because there are only a few owners 

making the decisions.

Marine operators have traditionally relied on oil-based fuels, with large oceangoing vessels almost exclusively fueled with heavy 

high-sulfur fuel oil that typically sells at a discount relative to other petroleum products. Under the International Maritime 

Organization’s International Convention on the Prevention of Pollution from Ships agreement (MARPOL Annex VI) [78], the use 

of heavy high-sulfur fuel oil in international shipping started being phased out for environmental reasons in 2010. Although LNG is 

one possible option, there are many cost and logistical challenges, including the high cost of retrofits, the long lifetime of existing 

vessels, and relatively low utilization rates for many routes that will have adverse impacts on the economics of marine LNG 

refueling infrastructure. Unlike the heavy-duty truck market, there has not yet been an LNG-fueled product offered for general use 

by manufacturers of marine or rail equipment, making cost and performance comparisons inherently speculative.

In addition to the demand assumptions discussed above, other assumption changes were made to capture potential shifts in 

vehicle cost and consumer preference for LDVs powered by alternative fuels. In the Low/No Net Imports case, the costs of 

efficiency technologies and battery technologies were lowered, and the market penetration of E85 fuel was increased, relative 

to the Reference case levels. With regard to E85, assumptions about consumer preference for flex-fuel vehicles were altered to 

allow for increases in vehicle sales and E85 demand, leading to greater use of domestically-produced biofuel than projected in 

the Reference case.

Table 6 summarizes the demand-side assumptions in the alternative demand scenarios for liquid fuels. As with the supply 

assumptions, the assumptions used in the higher and lower demand cases represent substantial deviations from the AEO2013

Reference case, and they might instead be realized in terms of other, as-yet-unforeseen developments in technology, economics, 

or policy.
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013 37

Issues in focus

Results

The cases considered show how the future share of net imports in total U.S. liquid fuel use varies with changes in assumptions 

about the key factors that drive domestic supply and demand for liquid fuels (Figure 24). Some of the assumptions in the Low/

No Net imports case, such as assumed increases in LDV fuel economy after 2025 and access to offshore resources, could be 

influenced by future energy policies. However, other assumptions in this case, such as the greater availability of onshore technically 

recoverable oil and natural gas resources, depend on geological outcomes that cannot be influenced by policy measures; and 

economic, consumer, or technological factors may likewise be unaffected or only slightly affected by policy measures.

Net imports and prices

In the Low/No Net Imports case, U.S. net imports of liquid fuels are eliminated in the mid-2030s, and the United States becomes a 

modest net exporter of those fuels by 2040. As discussed above, this case combines optimistic assumptions about the availability 

of domestic oil and natural gas resources with assumptions that lower demand for liquid fuels, including a decline in VMT per 

capita, increased switching to natural gas fuels for transportation (including heavy-duty trucks, rail, boats, and ships), continued 

significant improvements in the fuel efficiency of new vehicles beyond 2025, wider availability and lower costs of electric battery 

technologies, and greater market penetration of biofuels and other nonpetroleum liquids. Although other combinations of 

assumptions, or unforeseen technology breakthroughs, might 

produce a comparable outcome, the assumptions in the Low/

No Net Imports case illustrate the magnitude and type of 

changes that would be required for the United States to end 

its reliance on net imports of liquid fuels, which began in 1946 

and has continued to the present day. Moreover, regardless 

of how much the United States is able to reduce its reliance 

on imported liquids, it will not be entirely insulated from price 

shocks that affect the global oil market [79].

As shown in Figure 24, the supply assumptions of the High Oil 

and Gas Resource case alone result in a decline in net import 

dependence to 7 percent in 2040, compared to 37 percent 

in the Reference case, with U.S. crude oil production rising 

to 10.2 million barrels per day in 2040, or 4.1 million barrels 

per day above the Reference case level. Tight oil production 

accounts for more than 77 percent (or 3 million barrels per 

day) of the difference in production between the two cases. 

Production of NGL in the United States also exceeds the 

Reference case level.

Table 6. Differences in transportation demand assumptions across three cases

Transportation mode Reference Low/No Net Imports High Net Imports

Light-duty vehicles

Vehicle miles traveled 

(compound annual growth rate, 2011-2040) 1.2% 0.2% 1.1%

Vehicle technology efficiency in 2040 Baseline Baseline + 10% Baseline - 10%

Vehicle technology cost in 2040 Baseline Baseline - 10% Baseline + 10%

CAFE standard compliance value in 2040 

(miles per gallon) 49.0 57.7 39.9

Flex-fuel vehicle stock in 2040 (millions) 20.9 44.3 20.0

Battery-electric vehicle costs Baseline Baseline - 14% Baseline

Heavy-duty vehicles

Vehicle technology efficiency in 2040 Baseline Baseline + 10% Baseline - 10%

Vehicle technology cost in 2040 Baseline Baseline - 10% Baseline + 10%

Potential market share for natural gas fuel 27% 41% 27%

Marine

Efficiency (ton-miles per thousand Btu) 2.55 2.66 2.41

Potential market share for natural gas fuel 0% 8% 0%

Rail

Efficiency (ton-miles per thousand Btu) 3.54 3.70 3.44

Potential market share for natural gas fuel 0% 100% 0%

2011 Projections

-25

0

25

50

75

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Reference

High Net Imports

Low/No Net Imports

Low Oil and Gas Resource

High Oil and Gas Resource

Figure 24. Net import share of liquid fuels 

in five cases, 2005-2040 (percent)
38 U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013

Issues in focus

As a result of higher U.S. liquid fuels production, Brent crude oil prices in the High Oil and Gas Resource case are lower than in the 

Reference case, which also lowers motor gasoline and diesel prices to the transportation sector, encouraging greater consumption 

and partially dampening the projected decline in net dependence on liquid fuel imports. In the High Oil and Gas Resource case, 

the reduction in motor fuels prices increases fuel consumption in 2040 by 350 thousand barrels per day in the transportation 

sector and 230 thousand barrels per day in the industrial sector, which accounts for nearly all of the increase in total U.S. liquid 

fuels consumption (600 thousand barrels per day) relative to the Reference case total in 2040.

Global market, the economy, and refining

The addition of assumptions that slow the growth of demand for liquid fuels in the Low/No Net Imports case more than offsets 

the increase in demand that results from lower liquid fuel prices, so that total liquid fuels consumption in 2040 is 2.1 million 

barrels per day lower than projected in the Reference case. The combination of high crude oil and natural gas resources and lower 

demand for liquid fuels pushes Brent crude oil prices to $29 per barrel below the Reference case level in 2040. However, given the 

cumulative impact of factors that tend to raise world oil prices in real terms over the projection period, inflation-adjusted crude oil 

prices in the Low/No Net Imports case are still above today’s price level.

One of the most uncertain aspects of the analysis concerns the effect on the global market for liquid fuels, which is highly integrated. 

Although the analysis reflects price effects that are based on the relative scale of the changes in U.S. domestic supply and net 

U.S. imports of liquid fuels within the overall international crude oil market, strategic choices made by the leading oil-exporting 

countries could result in price and quantity effects that differ significantly from those presented here. Moreover, regardless of 

how much the United States reduces its reliance on imported liquids, consumer prices will not be insulated from global oil prices 

if current policies and regulations remain in effect and world markets for crude oil streams of sulfur quality remain closely aligned 

absent transportation bottlenecks [80].

Although the focus is mainly on liquid fuels markets, the more optimistic resource assumptions in the High Oil and Gas Resource 

case also lead to more natural gas production. The higher productivity of shale and tight gas wells puts downward pressure on 

natural gas prices and thus encourages increased domestic consumption of natural gas (38 trillion cubic feet in the High Oil and 

Gas Resource case, compared to 30 trillion cubic feet in the Reference case in 2040) and higher net exports (both pipeline and 

LNG) of natural gas. As a result, projected domestic natural gas production in 2040 is considerably higher in the High Oil and Gas 

Resource case (45 trillion cubic feet) than in the Reference case (33 trillion cubic feet).

The Low Oil and Gas Resource case illustrates the implications of an outcome in which U.S. oil and gas resources turn out to 

be smaller than expected in the Reference case. In this case, domestic crude oil production peaks in 2016 at 6.9 million barrels 

per day, declines to 5.9 million barrels per day in 2028, and remains relatively flat (between 5.8 and 6.0 million barrels per day) 

through 2040. The lower well productivity in this case puts upward pressure on natural gas prices, resulting in lower natural gas 

consumption and production. In 2040, U.S. natural gas production is 27 trillion cubic feet in the Low Oil and Gas Resource case, 

compared with 33 trillion cubic feet in the Reference case.

These alternative cases may also have significant implications for the broader economy. Liquid fuels provide power and raw 

materials (feedstocks) for a substantial portion of the U.S. economy, and the macroeconomic impacts of both the High Oil and 

Gas Resource case and the Low/No Net Imports case suggest that significant economic benefits would accrue if some version 

of those futures were realized (see discussion of NGL later in “Issues in focus”). This is in spite of the fact that petroleum remains 

a global market in each of the scenarios, which limits the price impacts for gasoline, diesel, and other petroleum-derived fuels. 

In the High Oil and Gas Resource case, increasing energy production has immediate benefits for the economy. U.S. industries 

produce more goods with 12 percent lower energy costs in 2025 and 15 percent lower energy costs in 2040. Consumers see 

roughly 10 percent lower energy prices in 2025, and 13 percent lower energy prices in 2040, as compared with the Reference 

case. Cheaper energy allows the economy to expand further, with real GDP attaining levels that are on average about 1 percent 

above those in the Reference case from 2025 through 2040, including growth in both aggregate consumption and investment.

The alternative cases also imply substantial changes in the future operations of U.S. petroleum refineries, as is particularly evident 

in the Low/No Net Imports case. Drastically reduced product consumption and increased nonpetroleum sources of transportation 

fuels, taken in isolation, would tend to reduce utilization of U.S. refineries. The combination of higher domestic crude supply and 

reduced crude runs in the refining sector would sharply reduce or eliminate crude oil imports and could potentially create market 

pressure for crude oil exports to balance crude supply with refinery runs. However, under current laws and regulations, crude 

exports require licenses that have not been issued except in circumstances involving exports to Canada or exports of limited 

quantities of specific crude streams, such as California heavy oil [81].

Rather than assuming a change in current policies toward crude oil exports, and recognizing the high efficiency and low operating 

costs of U.S. refineries relative to global competitors in the refining sector, exports of petroleum products, which are not subject to 

export licensing requirements, rise significantly to avoid the uneconomical unloading of efficient U.S. refinery capacity, continuing 

a trend that has already become evident over the past several years. Product exports rise until the incremental refining value 

of crude oil processed is equivalent to the cost of crude imports. To balance the rest of the world as a result of increased U.S. 

product exports, it is assumed that the increased volumes of U.S. liquid fuel product exports would result in a decrease in the 
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013 39

Issues in focus

volume of the rest of the world’s crude runs, and that world consumption, net of U.S. exports, would also be reduced by an amount 

necessary to keep demand and supply volumes in balance.

Projected carbon dioxide emissions

Total U.S. CO2 emissions show the impacts of changing fuel prices through all the sectors of the economy. In the High Oil and Gas 

Resource case, the availability of more natural gas at lower prices encourages the electric power sector to increase its reliance 

on natural gas for electricity generation. Coal is the most affected, with coal displaced over the first part of the projection, and 

new renewable generation sources also affected after 2030 or so, resulting in projected CO2 emissions in the High Oil and Gas 

Resource case that exceed those in the Reference case after 2035 (Figure 25). With less-plentiful and more-expensive natural gas 

in the Low Oil and Gas Resource and High Net Imports cases, the reverse is true, with fewer coal retirements leading to higher CO2

emissions than in the Reference case early in the projection period. Later in the projection, however, the electric power sector turns 

first to renewable technologies earlier in the Low Oil and Gas Resource and High Net Imports cases, and after 2030 invests in more 

nuclear plants, reducing CO2 emissions from the levels projected in the Reference case. In the Low Oil and Gas Resource case, CO2

emissions are lower than in the Reference case starting in 2026. In the Low/No Net Imports case, annual CO2 emissions from the 

transportation sector continue to decline as a result of reduced travel demand; these emissions are conversely higher in the High 

Net Imports case. Figure 25 summarizes the CO2 emissions projections in the cases completed for this analysis.

4. Competition between coal and natural gas in the electric power sector

Over the past 20 years, natural gas has been the go-to fuel for new electricity generation capacity. From 1990 to 2011, natural gas-fired 

plants accounted for 77 percent of all generating capacity additions, and many of the plants added were very efficient combined-cycle 

plants. However, with slow growth in electricity demand and spikes in natural gas prices between 2005 and 2008, much of the added 

capacity was used infrequently. Since 2009 natural gas prices have been relatively low, making efficient natural gas-fired combinedcycle plants increasingly competitive to operate in comparison with existing coal-fired plants, particularly in the Southeast and other 

regions where they have been used to meet demand formerly served by coal-fired plants. In 2012, as natural gas prices reached 

historic lows, there were many months when natural gas displacement of coal-fired generation was widespread nationally.

In the AEO2013 Reference case, the competition between coal and natural gas in electricity generation is expected to continue 

in the near term, particularly in certain regions. However, because natural gas prices are projected to increase more rapidly than 

coal prices, existing coal plants gradually recapture some of the market lost in recent years. Natural gas-fired plants continue to 

be the favored source for new generating capacity over much of the projection period because of their relatively low costs and 

high efficiencies. The natural gas share of total electricity generation increases in the Reference case from 24 percent in 2011 to 

30 percent in 2040. Coal remains the largest source of electricity generation, but its share of total electricity generation, which 

was 51 percent in 2003, declines from 42 percent in 2011 to 35 percent in 2040.

At any point, short-term competition between existing coal- and gas-fired generators—i.e., the decisions determining which 

generators will be dispatched to generate electricity—depends largely on the relative operating costs for each type of generation, 

of which fuel costs are a major portion. A second aspect of competition occurs over the longer term, as developers choose which 

fuels and technologies to use for new capacity builds and whether or not to make mandated or optional upgrades to existing plants. 

The natural gas or coal share of total generation depends both on the available capacity of each fuel type (affected by the latter 

type of competition) and on how intensively the capacity is operated.

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

0

2011 Projections

Reference

High Net Imports

Low/No Net Imports

Low Oil and Gas Resource

High Oil and Gas Resource

Figure 25. U.S. carbon dioxide emissions in five cases, 

2005-2040 (billion metric tons)

There is significant uncertainty about future coal and natural 

gas prices, as well as about future growth in electricity 

demand, which determines the need for new generating 

capacity. In AEO2013, alternative cases with higher and 

lower coal and natural gas prices and variations in the rate of 

electricity demand growth are used to examine the potential 

impacts of those uncertainties. The alternative cases 

illustrate the influence of fuel prices and demand on dispatch 

and capacity planning decisions.

Recent history of price-based competition

In recent years, natural gas has come into dispatch-level 

competition with coal as the cost of operating natural gasfired generators has neared the cost of operating coalfired generators. A number of factors led to the growing 

competition, including:

•	 A build-out of efficient combined-cycle capacity during 

the early 2000s, which in general was used infrequently 

until recently
40 U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013

Issues in focus

•	 Expansion of the natural gas pipeline network, reducing uncertainty about the availability of natural gas

•	 Gains in natural gas production from domestic shale formations that have contributed to falling natural gas prices

•	 Rising coal prices.

Until mid-2008, coal-fired generators were cheaper to operate than natural gas-fired generators in most applications and regions. 

Competition between available natural gas combined-cycle generators (NGCC) and generators burning eastern (Appalachian) 

and imported coal began in southeastern electric markets in 2009. Rough parity between NGCC and more expensive coal-fired 

plants continued until late 2011, when increased natural gas production led to a decline in the fuel price and, in the spring of 2012, 

a dramatic increase in competition between natural gas and even less expensive types of coal. With natural gas-fired generation 

increasing steadily, the natural gas share of U.S. electric power sector electricity generation was almost equal to the coal share for 

the first time in April 2012.

The following discussion focuses on the electric power sector, excluding other generation sources in the residential, commercial, 

and industrial end-use sectors. The industrial sector in particular may also respond to changes in coal and natural gas fuel prices 

by varying their level of development, but industrial users typically do not have the option to choose between the fuels as in the 

power sector, and there are fewer opportunities for direct competition between coal and natural gas for electricity generation.

Outlook for fuel competition in power generation

The difference between average annual prices per million Btu for natural gas and coal delivered to U.S. electric power plants 

narrowed substantially in 2012, so that the fuel costs of generating power from NGCC units and coal steam turbines per 

megawatthour were essentially equal on a national average basis (Figure 26), given that combined-cycle plants are much more 

efficient than coal-fired plants. When the ratio of natural gas prices to coal prices is approximately 1.5 or lower, a typical natural 

gas-fired combined-cycle plant has lower generating costs than a typical coal-fired plant. In the Reference case projection, natural 

gas plants begin to lose competitive advantage over time, as natural gas prices increase relative to coal prices. Because fuel prices 

vary by region, and because there is also considerable variation in efficiencies across the existing fleet of both coal-fired and 

combined-cycle plants, dispatch-level competition between coal and natural gas continues.

In the Reference case, coal-fired generation increases from 2012 levels and recaptures some of the power generation market 

lost to natural gas in recent years. The extent of that recovery varies significantly, however, depending on assumptions about the 

relative prices of the two fuels. The following alternative cases, which assume higher or lower availability or prices for natural gas 

and coal than in the Reference case are used to examine the likely effects of different market conditions:

•	 The Low Oil and Gas Resource case assumes that the EUR per shale gas, tight gas, or tight oil well is 50 percent lower than 

in the Reference Case. In 2040, delivered natural gas prices to the electric power sector are 26 percent higher than in the 

Reference case.

•	 The High Oil and Gas Resource case assumes that the EUR per shale gas, tight gas, or tight oil well is 100 percent higher than 

in the Reference case, and the maximum well spacing for shale gas, tight gas, and tight oil plays is assumed to be 40 acres. This 

case also assumes that the EUR for wells in the Alaska offshore and the Federal Gulf of Mexico is 50 percent higher than in the 

Reference case, that there is development of kerogen resources in the lower 48 states, and that the schedule for development of 

Alaskan resources is accelerated. In 2040, delivered natural gas prices are 39 percent lower than projected in the Reference case.

•	 The High Coal Cost case assumes lower mine productivity 

and higher costs for labor, mine equipment, and coal 

transportation, which ultimately result in higher coal prices 

for electric power plants. In 2040, the delivered coal price 

is 77 percent higher than in the Reference case.

•	 The Low Coal Cost case assumes higher mining productivity 

and lower costs for labor, mine equipment, and coal 

transportation, leading to lower coal prices for electric 

power plants. In 2040, the delivered coal price is 41 percent 

lower than in the Reference case.

Figure 27 compares the ratio of average per-megawatthour 

fuel costs for NGCC plants and coal steam turbines at the 

national level across the cases. It illustrates the relative 

competitiveness of dispatching coal-fired steam turbines 

versus NGCC plants, including the differences in efficiency 

(heat rates) of the two types of generators. The ratio of 

natural gas to coal would be about 1.5 without considering the 

difference in efficiency. Higher coal prices or lower natural gas 

prices move the ratio closer to the line of competitive parity, 

2011 Projections

0

5

10

15

2008 2011 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Natural gas

Coal

Power generation fuel costs

(2011 dollars per megawatthour)

Natural gas

Coal

75

0

25

50

2008 2020 2030 2040

Figure 26. Average delivered fuel prices to electric 

power plants in the Reference case, 2008-2040 

(2011 dollars per million Btu)
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013 41

Issues in focus

where NGCC plants have more opportunities to displace coal-fired generators. In contrast, when coal prices are much lower 

than in the Reference case, or natural gas prices are much higher, the ratio is higher, indicating less likelihood of dispatch-level 

competition between coal and natural gas. In both the High Oil and Gas Resource case and the High Coal Cost case, the average 

NGCC plant is close to parity with, or more economical than, the average coal-fired steam turbine.

Capacity by plant type

In all five cases, coal-fired generating capacity in 2025 (Figure 28) is below the 2011 total and remains lower through 2040 

(Figure 29), as retirements outpace new additions of coal-fired capacity. Coal and natural gas prices are key factors in the 

decision to retire a power plant, along with environmental regulations and the demand for electricity. In the Low Oil and Gas 

Resource case and Low Coal Cost case, there are slightly fewer retirements than in the Reference case, as a higher fuel cost ratio 

for power generation is more favorable to coal-fired power plants. In the High Oil and Gas Resource case and High Coal Cost 

case, coal-fired plants are used less, and more coal-fired capacity is retired than in the Reference case. In the Reference case, 

49 gigawatts of coal-fired capacity is retired from 2011 to 2040, compared with a range from 38 gigawatts to 73 gigawatts in 

the alternative cases. The interaction of fuel prices and environmental rules is a key factor in coal plant retirements. AEO2013

assumes that all coal-fired plants have flue gas desulfurization equipment (scrubbers) or dry sorbent injection systems installed 

by 2016 to comply with the Mercury and Air Toxics Standards. Higher coal prices, lower wholesale electricity prices (often tied 

to natural gas prices), and reduced use may make investment 

in such equipment uneconomical in some cases, resulting in 

plant retirements.

In all the cases examined, new additions of coal-fired capacity 

from 2012 to 2040 total less than 15 gigawatts. For new builds, 

natural gas and renewables generally are more competitive 

than coal, and concerns surrounding potential future GHG 

legislation also dampen interest in new coal-fired capacity 

[82]. New capacity additions are not the most important factor 

in the competition between coal and natural gas for electricity 

generation. There is also significant dispatch-level competition 

in determining how intensively to operate existing coal-fired 

power plants versus new and existing natural gas-fired plants.

New natural gas-fired capacity, including combined-cycle 

units and combustion turbines, comprises the majority of 

new additions in the Reference case. The total capacity of 

all U.S. natural gas-fired power plants grows in each of the 

cases, but the levels vary depending on the relative fuel prices 

projected. Across the resource cases, NGCC capacity in 2025 

ranges between 227 and 243 gigawatts, and in 2040 it ranges 

between 262 and 344 gigawatts, reflecting the impacts of 

fuel prices on the operating costs of new capacity.

0

1

2

3

4

2008 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

2011 Projections

Low Coal Cost

Reference

Low Oil and Gas Resource

High Coal Cost

High Oil and Gas Resource

Competitive parity (1:1 cost ratio)

Figure 27. Ratio of average per megawatthour fuel 

costs for natural gas combined-cycle plants to coalfired steam turbines in five cases, 2008-2040

0 250 500 750 1,000 1,250 1,500

2011

Reference

Low Oil and Gas

Resource

High Oil and Gas

Resource

Low Coal Cost

High Coal Cost

Renewable/other

Nuclear

Natural gas combustion turbine

Natural gas combined cycle

Oil/gas steam

Coal

2025

Figure 28. Power sector electricity generation capacity 

by fuel in five cases, 2011 and 2025 (gigawatts)

0 250 500 750 1,000 1,250 1,500

2011

Reference

Low Oil and Gas

Resource

High Oil and Gas

Resource

Low Coal Cost

High Coal Cost

Renewable/other

Nuclear

Natural gas combustion turbine

Natural gas combined cycle

Oil/gas steam

Coal

2040

Figure 29. Power sector electricity generation capacity 

by fuel in five cases, 2011 and 2040 (gigawatts)
42 U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013

Issues in focus

New nuclear capacity and renewable capacity are affected primarily by changes in natural gas prices, with substantial growth 

in both technologies occurring in the Low Oil and Gas Resource case. Most of the increase occurs after 2025, when delivered 

natural gas prices in that case exceed $7 per million Btu, and the costs of the nuclear and renewable technologies have fallen from 

current levels. In this case, higher natural gas prices reduce the competitiveness of natural gas as a fuel for new capacity builds, 

leading to higher prices and lower demand for electricity. Total generating capacity is similar in the Reference case and the Low 

Oil and Gas Resource case, but the large amount of renewable capacity built in the Low Oil and Gas Resource case—particularly 

wind and solar—does not contribute as much generation as NGCC capacity toward meeting either electricity demand or reserve 

margin requirements.

Generation by fuel

In the Reference case, coal-fired generation increases by an average of 0.2 percent per year from 2011 through 2040. Even 

though less capacity is available in 2040 than in 2011, the average capacity utilization of coal-fired generators increases over 

time. In recent years, as natural gas prices have fallen and natural gas-fired generators have displaced coal in the dispatch order, 

the average capacity factor for coal-fired plants has declined substantially. The coal fleet maintained an average annual capacity 

factor above 70 percent from 2002 through 2008, but the capacity factor has declined since then, falling to about 57 percent in 

2012. As natural gas prices increase in the AEO2013 Reference case, the utilization rate of coal-fired generators returns to previous 

historical levels and continues to rise, to an average of around 74 percent in 2025 and 78 percent in 2040. Across the alternative 

cases, coal-fired generation varies slightly in 2025 (Figure 30) and 2040 (Figure 31) as a result of differences in plant retirements 

and slight differences in utilization rates. The capacity factor for coal-fired power plants in 2040 ranges from 69 percent in the 

High Oil and Gas Resource case to 81 percent in the Low Oil and Gas Resource case.

Natural gas-fired generation varies more widely across the alternative cases, as a result of changes in the utilization of NGCC 

capacity, as well as the overall amount of combined-cycle capacity available. In recent years, the utilization rate for NGCC plants 

has increased, while the utilization rate for coal-fired steam turbines has declined. Capacity factors for the two technologies were 

about equal at approximately 57 percent in 2012. As natural gas prices rise in the Reference case, the average capacity factor 

for combined-cycle plants drops below 50 percent in the near term and remains between 48 percent and 54 percent over the 

remainder of projection period. In the High Oil and Gas Resource case, where combined-cycle generation is more competitive 

with existing coal-fired generation and the largest amount of new combined-cycle capacity is added, the average capacity factor 

for combined-cycle plants rises to 70 percent in the middle years of the projection period and remains about 63 percent through 

the remainder of the projection period. In the Low Oil and Gas Resource case, generation from combined-cycle plants is 37 

percent lower in 2040 than in the Reference case, and the capacity factor for NGCC plants declines from around 45 percent 

in the mid term to 36 percent in 2040. Natural gas-fired generation in the Low Oil and Gas Resource case is replaced primarily 

with generation from new nuclear and renewable power plants. Similar fluctuations in natural gas-fired generation, but smaller in 

magnitude, are also seen across the coal cost cases.

The coal and natural gas shares of total electricity generation vary widely across the alternative cases. The coal share of total 

generation varies from 30 percent to 43 percent in 2025 and from 28 percent to 40 percent in 2040. The natural gas share varies 

from 22 percent to 36 percent in 2025 and from 18 percent to 42 percent in 2040. In the High Oil and Gas Resource case, natural 

gas becomes the dominant generation fuel after 2015, and its share of total generation is 42 percent in 2040 (Figure 32).

0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000

2011

Reference

Low Oil and Gas

Resource

High Oil and Gas

Resource

Low Coal Cost

High Coal Cost

2025

Renewables

Nuclear

Oil/other

Natural gas

Coal

Figure 30. Power sector electricity generation by fuel 

in five cases, 2011 and 2025 (billion kilowatthours)

2011

Reference

Low Oil and Gas

Resource

High Oil and Gas

Resource

Low Coal Cost

High Coal Cost

2040

Renewables

Nuclear

Oil/other

Natural gas

Coal

0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000

Figure 31. Power sector electricity generation by fuel 

in five cases, 2011 and 2040 (billion kilowatthours)
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013 43

Issues in focus

Regional impacts

Competition in the southeastern United States

While examining the national-level results is useful, the competition between coal and natural gas is best examined in a region 

that has significant amounts of both coal-fired and natural gas-fired capacity, such as the southeastern United States. In the 

southeastern subregion of the SERC Reliability Corporation (EMM Region 14), the ratio of average fuel costs for NGCC plants to 

average fuel costs for coal-fired steam turbines in both the High Coal Cost case and the High Oil and Gas Resource case is below 

that in the Reference case (Figure 33). In this region, which has a particularly efficient fleet of NGCC plants, the fuel cost ratios in 

both the High Coal Cost case and the High Oil and Gas Resource case remain near or below competitive parity for the majority of 

the projection period, indicating continued strong competition in the region. While average coal steam turbine heat rates remain 

largely static over the projection period, the average NGCC heat rates in this region drop appreciably by 2040, and are among 

the lowest in the nation.

The delivered cost of coal in the region is somewhat higher than in many other regions. Central Appalachian and Illinois Basin 

coals must be transported by rail or barge to the Southeast, and coal from the Powder River Basin must travel great distances by 

rail. The region also uses some imported coal, typically along the Gulf Coast, which tends to be more expensive.

In the High Oil and Gas Resource case, retirements of coal-fired generators in this region total 8 gigawatts in 2016 (5 gigawatts 

higher than in the Reference case) and remain at that level through 2040. Lower fuel prices for new natural gas-fired capacity, 

along with requirements to install environmental control equipment on existing coal-fired capacity, leads to additional retirements 

of coal-fired plants. As a result, the coal share of total capacity in the region drops from 39 percent in 2011 to 23 percent in 2040 

in the High Oil and Gas Resource case, and the NGCC share rises from 24 percent in 2011 to 40 percent in 2040, when it accounts 

for the largest share of total generating capacity.

The capacity factors of coal-fired and NGCC power plants also vary across the cases, resulting in a significant shift in the shares of 

generation by fuel. The natural gas share of total electric power generation in the SERC southeast subregion grows from 31 percent 

in 2011 to 36 percent in 2040 in the Reference case, as compared with 56 percent in 2040 in the High Oil and Gas Resource case. 

Conversely, the coal share drops from 47 percent in 2011 to 40 percent in 2040 in the Reference case, compared with 20 percent 

in 2040 in the High Oil and Gas Resource case.

Competition in the Midwest

In the western portion of the ReliabilityFirst Corporation (RFC) region (EMM Region 11), which covers Ohio, Indiana, and West 

Virginia as well as portions of neighboring states, the ratio of the average fuel cost for natural gas-fired combined-cycle plants 

to the average fuel cost for coal-fired steam turbines approaches parity in the High Coal Cost case and the High Oil and Gas 

Resource case (Figure 34). The RFC west subregion is more heavily dependent on coal, with coal-fired capacity accounting for 58 

percent of the total in 2011. The coal share of total capacity falls to 48 percent in 2040 in the Reference case with the retirement 

of nearly 15 gigawatts of coal-fired capacity from 2011 to 2017. NGCC capacity, which represented only 7 percent of the region’s 

total generating capacity in 2011, accounts for 11 percent of the total in 2040 in the Reference case.

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

2008 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

2011 Projections

Coal

Natural gas

Reference

High Oil and Gas Resource

Figure 32. Power sector electricity generation from 

coal and natural gas in two cases, 2008-2040 

(billion kilowatthours)

0

1

2

3

4

2008 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

2011 Projections

Low Coal Cost

Reference

Low Oil and Gas Resource

High Coal Cost

High Oil and Gas Resource

Competitive parity (1:1 cost ratio)

Figure 33. Ratio of average per megawatthour fuel 

costs for natural gas combined-cycle plants to coalfired steam turbines in the SERC southeast subregion 

in five cases, 2008-2040
44 U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013

Issues in focus

In the High Coal Cost case, only a limited amount of shifting from coal to natural gas occurs in this region, which has a large 

amount of existing coal-fired capacity and access to multiple sources of coal, including western basins as well as the Illinois and 

Appalachian basins. Higher transportation rates in this case deter the use of Western coal in favor of more locally sourced Interior 

and Appalachian coal. The ability to switch coal sources to moderate fuel expenditures reduces the economic incentive to build 

new NGCC plants, even with coal prices that are higher than those in the Reference case. The NGCC share of the region’s total 

capacity does increase in the High Oil and Gas Resource case relative to the Reference case, to 16 percent in 2040. In all the cases, 

however, coal-fired generating capacity makes up more than 42 percent of the total in 2040.

The different capacity factors of coal-fired steam turbines and NGCC capacity contribute to a shift in the generation fuel shares, but 

the lower levels of natural gas-fired capacity in the region limit the impacts relative to those seen in the Southeast. The natural gas 

share of total generation in the region grows from 6 percent in 2011 to 8 percent in 2040 in the Reference case, 10 percent in 2040 

in the High Coal Cost case, and 18 percent in 2040 the High Oil and Gas Resource case. Coal’s share of the region’s electric power 

sector generation declines from 66 percent in 2011 to 64 percent in 2040 in the Reference case, and to 54 percent in both the High 

Coal Cost case and the High Oil and Gas Resource case. In the High Coal Cost case, much of the coal-fired generation is replaced 

with biomass co-firing rather than natural gas, because without the lower natural gas prices in the High Oil and Gas Resource case, 

it is more economical to use biomass in existing coal-fired units than to build and operate new natural gas-fired generators.

Other factors affecting competition

In addition to relative fuel prices, a number of factors influence the competition between coal-fired steam turbines and natural 

gas-fired combined-cycle units. One factor in the dispatch-level competition is the availability of capacity of each type. In New 

England, for example, competition between coal and natural gas is not discussed, because very little coal-fired capacity exists 

or is projected to be built in that region, even in the AEO2013 alternative fuel price cases. New England is located far from coal 

sources, and a regional cap on GHG emissions is in place, which makes investment in new coal-fired capacity unlikely. In the 

southeastern United States, however, there is more balance between natural gas-fired and coal-fired generating resources.

Further limitations not discussed above include:

•	 Start-up and shutdown costs. In general, combined-cycle units are considered to be more flexible than steam turbines. 

They can ramp their output up and down more easily, and their start-up and shutdown procedures involve less time and 

expense. However, plants that are operated more flexibly (i.e., ramping up and down and cycling on and off) often have higher 

maintenance requirements and higher maintenance costs.

•	 Emission rates and allowance costs. Another component of operating costs not mentioned above is the cost of buying 

emissions allowances for plants covered by the Acid Rain Program and Clean Air Interstate Rule. In recent years, allowance 

prices have dropped to levels that make them essentially negligible, although for many years they were a significant component 

of operating costs.

•	 Transmission constraints on the electricity grid and other reliability requirements. Certain plants, often referred to as 

reliability must-run plants, are located in geographic areas where they are required to operate whenever they are available. 

In other cases, transmission limitations on the grid at any given time may determine maximum output levels for some plants.

5. Nuclear power in AEO2013

In 2011, approximately 19 percent of the nation’s electricity 

was generated by 104 operating commercial nuclear 

reactors, totaling 101 gigawatts of capacity. In the AEO2013

Reference case, annual generation from nuclear power grows 

by 14.3 percent from the 2011 total to 903 gigawatthours in 

2040. However, the nuclear share of the overall generation 

mix declines to 17 percent as growth in nuclear generation 

is outpaced by the increases in generation from natural gas 

and renewables. The Reference case projects the addition 

of 19 gigawatts of nuclear capacity from 2011 to 2040, in 

comparison with the addition of 215 gigawatts of natural gas 

capacity and 104 gigawatts of renewable capacity.

Nuclear capacity is added both through power uprates at 

existing nuclear power plants and through new builds. Uprates 

at existing plants account for 8.0 gigawatts of nuclear capacity 

additions in the Reference case and new construction adds 

11.0 gigawatts of capacity over the projection period. About 

5.5 gigawatts of new capacity results from Watts Bar Unit 2, 

Summer Units 2 and 3, and Vogtle Units 3 and 4, all of which 

are projected to be online by 2020. The AEO2013 Reference 

0

1

2

3

4

2008 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

2011 Projections

Low Coal Cost

Reference

Low Oil and Gas Resource

High Coal Cost

High Oil and Gas Resource

Competitive parity (1:1 cost ratio)

Figure 34. Ratio of average per megawatthour fuel 

costs for natural gas combined-cycle plants to coalfired steam turbines in the RFC west subregion in 

five cases, 2008-2040
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013 45

Issues in focus

case includes the retirement of 0.6 gigawatts at Oyster Creek in 2019, as well as retirements of an additional 6.5 gigawatts of 

capacity toward the end of the projection. AEO2013 also includes several alternative cases that examine the impacts of different 

assumptions about the long-term operation of existing nuclear power plants, new builds, deployment of new technologies, and 

the impacts on electricity markets of different assumptions about future nuclear capacity.

Uprates

Power uprates increase the licensed capacity of existing nuclear power plants and enable those plants to generate more electricity 

[83]. The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) must approve all uprate projects before they are undertaken and verify that 

the reactors will still be able to operate safely at the proposed higher levels of output. Power uprates can increase plant capacity 

by up to 20 percent of the original licensed capacity, depending on the magnitude and type of uprate project. Capital expenditures 

may be small (e.g., installing a more accurate sensor) or significant (e.g., replacing key plant components, such as turbines).

EIA relied on both reported data and estimates to define the uprates included in AEO2013. Reported data comes from the Form 

EIA-860 [84], which requires all nuclear power plant owners to report plans to build new plants or make modifications (such 

as an uprate) to existing plants within the next 10 years. In 2011, nuclear power plants reported plans to complete a total of 1.5 

gigawatts of uprate projects over the next 10 years.

In addition to the reported uprates, EIA included an additional 6.5 gigawatts of uprates over the projection period. The inclusion of 

potential uprate capacity is based on interactions with EIA stakeholders who have significant experience in implementing power 

plant uprates.

New Builds

Building a new nuclear power plant is a complex operation that can take more than a decade to complete. Projects generally 

require specialized high-wage workers, expensive materials and components, and engineering construction expertise, which can 

be provided by only a select group of firms worldwide. In the current economic environment of low natural gas prices and flat 

demand for electricity, the overall market conditions for new nuclear plants are challenging.

Nuclear power plants are among the most expensive options for new electric generating capacity [85]. The AEO2013 Reference 

case assumes that the overnight capital costs (the cost before interest) associated with building a nuclear power plant in 2012 

were $5,429 (2011 dollars) per kilowatt, which translates to almost $12 billion for a dual-unit 2,200-megawatt power plant. The 

estimate does not include such additional costs as financing, interest carried forward, and peripheral infrastructure updates [86]. 

Despite its cost, deployment of new nuclear capacity supports the long-term resource plans of many utilities by allowing fuel 

diversification and by providing a hedge against potential future GHG regulations or higher natural gas prices.

Incentive programs encourage the construction of new reactors in the United States. At the federal level, the Energy Policy 

Act of 2005 (EPACT2005) established a Loan Guarantee Program for new nuclear plants that are completed and operational 

by 2020 [87]. A total of $18.5 billion is available, of which $8.3 billion has been conditionally committed to the construction 

of Southern Company’s Vogtle Units 3 and 4 [88]. EPACT2005 also provided a PTC of $18 per megawatt hour for electricity 

produced during the first 8 years of plant operation [89]. To be eligible for this credit, new nuclear plants must be operational 

by 2021, and the credit is limited to the first 6 gigawatts of new nuclear capacity. In addition to federal incentives, several 

states provide a favorable regulatory environment for new nuclear plants by allowing plant owners to recover their investments 

through retail electricity rates.

In addition to reported plans to build new nuclear power plants, another 5.5 gigawatts of unplanned capacity is built in the later 

years of the Reference case projection. Higher natural gas prices, growth in electricity demand, and the need to displace retired 

nuclear and coal-fired capacity all play a role in the growth at the end of the projection period in the Reference case.

Retirements

NRC has the authority to issue initial operating licenses for commercial nuclear power plants for a period of 40 years. Decisions to 

apply for operating license renewals are made entirely by nuclear power plant owners, and typically they are based on economics 

and the ability to meet NRC requirements.

In April 2012, Oyster Creek Unit 1 became the first commercial nuclear reactor to have operated for 40 years, followed by Nine 

Mile Point Unit 1 in August, R. E. Ginna in September, and Dresden Unit 2 in December 2012. Two additional plants, H.B. Robinson 

Unit 2 and Point Beach Unit 1, will complete 40 years of operation in 2013. As of December 2012, the NRC had granted license 

renewals to 72 of the 104 operating U.S. reactors, allowing them to operate for a total of 60 years. Currently, the NRC is reviewing 

license renewal applications for 13 reactors, and 15 more applications for license renewals are expected between 2013 and 2019.

NRC regulations do not limit the number of license renewals a nuclear power plant may be granted. The nuclear power industry 

is preparing applications for license renewals that would allow continued operation beyond 60 years. The first such application, 

for permission to operate a commercial reactor for a total of 80 years is tentatively scheduled to be submitted in 2015. Aging 

plants may face a variety of issues that could lead to a decision not to apply for a second license renewal, including both economic 

and regulatory issues—such as increased operation and maintenance (O&M) costs and capital expenditures to meet NRC 

requirements. Industry research is focused on identifying challenges that aging facilities might encounter and formulating potential 
46 U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013

Issues in focus

approaches to meet those challenges [90, 91]. Typical challenges involve degradation of structural materials, maintaining safety 

margins, and assessing the structural integrity of concrete [92].

The outcome of pending research and market developments will be important to future decisions regarding life extensions beyond 

60 years. The AEO2013 Reference case assumes that the operating lives of most of the existing U.S. nuclear power plants will be 

extended at least through 2040. The only planned retirement included in the Reference case is the announced early retirement 

of the Oyster Creek nuclear power station in 2019, as reported on Form EIA-860. The Reference case also assumes an additional 

7.1 gigawatts of nuclear power capacity retirements by 2040, representing about 7 percent of the current fleet. These generic 

retirements reflect uncertainty related to issues associated with long-term operations and age management.

In March 2012, the NRC issued three orders [93] that require nuclear power plants to implement requirements related to lessons 

learned from the accident at Japan’s Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant in March 2011. Compliance assessments are underway 

currently at U.S. nuclear power plants. The requirements of the orders must be implemented by December 2016 and will remain 

in place until they are superseded by rulemaking. Given the evolving nature of NRC’s regulatory response to the accident at 

Fukushima Daiichi, the Reference case does not include any retirements that could result from new NRC requirements that may 

involve plant modifications to meet such requirements.

Small Modular Reactors

Small Modular Reactor (SMR) technology differs from traditional, large-scale light-water reactor technology in both reactor size 

and plant scalability. SMRs are typically smaller than 300 megawatts and can be built in modular arrangements. Traditional reactors 

are generally 1,000 megawatts or larger. The initial estimates for scalable SMRs range from 45 to 225 megawatts. SMRs are small 

enough to be fabricated in factories and can be shipped to sites via barge, rail, or truck. Those factors may reduce both capital costs 

and construction times. Smaller SMRs offer utilities the flexibility to scale nuclear power production as demand changes.

The actual construction of a large nuclear power plant can take up to a decade. During construction, the plant owner may incur 

significant interest costs and risk further cost increases because of delays and cost overruns. SMRs have the potential to mitigate 

some of the risks, based on their projected construction period of 3 years. Moody’s credit rating agency has described large 

nuclear power plants as bet-the-farm endeavors for most companies, given the size of the investment and length of time needed 

to build a nuclear power facility [94], as highlighted by comparisons of the costs of building nuclear power plants with the overall 

sizes of the companies building them. AEO2013 assumes that the overnight cost of a 2,200-megawatt nuclear power plant is 

approximately $12 billion, which is a significant share of the market capitalization of some of the nation’s largest electric power 

companies. For example, the largest publicly traded company that owns nuclear power plants in the United States has a market 

capitalization of about $50 billion [95].

Although SMRs may offer several potential advantages, there are key issues that remain to be resolved. SMRs are not yet licensed by 

the NRC. While there are many similarities between SMRs and traditional large reactors, there are several key differences identified 

by the NRC that will need to be reviewed before a design certification is issued. Until the situation is clarified, there will be substantial 

uncertainty about the final costs of SMRs. In addition, the NRC must develop a regulatory infrastructure to support licensing review 

of the SMR designs. The NRC has identified several potential policy and technical issues associated with SMR licensing [96]. In 

August 2012, the NRC provided a report to Congress that addressed the licensing of reactors, including SMRs [97, 98].

Ultimately, the path to commercialization for SMRs is to develop the infrastructure to manufacture the modules in factories and 

then ship the completed units to plant sites. Performing a majority of the construction in factories could standardize the assembly 

process and result in cost savings, as has occurred with U.S. Navy shipbuilding, where construction cost savings have been 

achieved by centralizing much of the production in a controlled factory setting [99].

In March 2012, DOE announced its intention to provide $450 million in funding to assist in the initial development of SMR 

technology [100]. Through cost-sharing agreements with private industry, DOE solicited proposals for promising SMR projects 

that have the potential to be licensed by the NRC and achieve commercial operation by 2022. In November 2012, DOE announced 

the selection of Babcock & Wilcox [101], in partnership with the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) and Bechtel International, to 

share the costs of preparing a license application for up to four SMRs at TVA’s Clinch River site in Oak Ridge, Tennessee.

Alternative nuclear cases

In the AEO2013 Low Nuclear case, uprates currently under review by, or expected to be submitted to, the NRC are not included 

unless they have been reported to EIA. No nuclear power plants are assumed to receive second license renewals in the Low 

Nuclear case; all plants are assumed to retire after roughly 60 years of operation, except for those specifically discussed below. 

Other than the 5.5 gigawatts of new capacity already planned, no new nuclear power plants are assumed to be built.

In addition to the retirement of Oyster Creek in 2019, the Low Nuclear case includes the retirement of Kewaunee in 2013. Nuclear 

power plants that are in long-term shutdown also are assumed to be retired, including San Onofre Nuclear Generating Station 

(SONGS) Unit 3 and Crystal River Unit 3. Both plants have been in extended shutdown for more than a year, and there is substantial 

uncertainty about the cost and feasibility of operating the facilities in the future. Southern California Edison is assessing the longterm viability of SONGS Unit 3 and has indicated that it will not be operating for some time, in light of ongoing steam generator 
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013 47

Issues in focus

issues [102, 103, 104]. Crystal River Unit 3 has been offline since September 2009, as a result of cracks in the containment 

structure. As of October 2012, replacement power costs and the repairs to Unit 3 were initially estimated to be between $1.3 and 

$3.5 billion. However, repairs could eventually include replacement of the entire containment structure. Further repairs to Crystal 

River Unit 3 are being evaluated [105, 106]. In the Reference and High Nuclear cases, SONGS Unit 3 and Crystal River Unit 3 are 

assumed to return to service when maintenance and repairs have been completed.

The High Nuclear case assumes that all existing nuclear power plants receive their second license renewals and operate through 

2040. Uprates in the High Nuclear case are consistent with those in the Reference case (8.0 gigawatts added by 2025). In addition 

to plants already under construction, the High Nuclear case assumes that nuclear power plants with active license applications 

at the NRC are constructed, provided that they have a tentatively scheduled Atomic Safety and Licensing Board hearing and will 

deploy a certified Nuclear Steam Supply System design. This assumption results in the planned addition of 13.3 gigawatts of new 

nuclear capacity, which is 7.8 gigawatts above what is assumed in the Reference case.

In the High Nuclear case, planned capacity additions are more than double those in the Reference case, but unplanned additions 

do not change noticeably. The additional planned capacity reduces the need for new unplanned capacity. The importance of 

natural gas prices for nuclear power plant construction is highlighted in the results of the Low Oil and Gas Resource case, where 

the average price of natural gas delivered to the electric power sector in 2040 is 26 percent higher than in the Reference case. The 

higher natural gas prices make nuclear power a more competitive source for new generating capacity, resulting in the addition of 

26 gigawatts of unplanned nuclear power capacity from 2011 to 2040. In the High Oil and Gas Resource case, where the average 

price of natural gas delivered to the electric power sector in 2040 is 39 percent lower than in the Reference case, no unplanned 

nuclear capacity is built. Similarly, no unplanned nuclear capacity is added in the Low Nuclear case (Figure 35).

The Small Modular Reactor case assumes that SMRs will be the nuclear technology choice available after 2025, rather than 

traditional gigawatt-scale nuclear power plants. There is uncertainty surrounding SMR design certification and supply chain and 

infrastructure development, which makes it difficult to develop capital cost assumptions for SMRs. The Small Modular Reactor 

case assumes that SMRs have the same overnight capital costs per kilowatt as a traditional 1,100-megawatt unit, consistent with 

cost assumptions in the Reference case. This assumption was made for the purpose of assessing the impact on the amount of new 

nuclear capacity of a shorter construction period for SMRs than for traditional nuclear power plants.

In the High Nuclear case, nuclear generation in 2040 is 12 percent higher than in the Reference case, and the nuclear share of total 

generation is 19 percent, compared with 17 percent in the Reference case. The increase in nuclear generation offsets a decline in 

generation from natural gas (Figure 36) and renewable fuels, which are 5 percent and 2 percent lower in 2040, respectively, than 

in the Reference case. Coal-fired generation in the High Nuclear case is virtually the same as in the Reference case.

In the Low Nuclear case, generation from nuclear power in 2040 is 44 percent lower than in the Reference case, due to the loss of 

45.4 gigawatts of nuclear capacity that is retired after 60 years of operation. As a result, the nuclear share of total generation falls 

to 10 percent in 2040. The loss of generation is made up primarily by increased generation from natural gas, which is 17 percent 

higher in the Low Nuclear case than in the Reference case in 2040. Generation from coal and generation from renewables in 2040 

both are 2 percent higher than projected in the Reference case.

CO2 emissions from the electric power sector are affected by the share of nuclear power in the generation mix. Unlike coal- and 

natural gas-fired plants, nuclear power plants do not emit CO2. Consequently, CO2 emissions from the electric power sector in 

2040 are 5 percent lower in the Reference case than in the Low Nuclear case, as a result of switching from nuclear generation to 

0 10 20 30 40

High Oil and Gas Resource

(low natural gas prices)

Low Oil and Gas Resource

(high natural gas prices)

Low Nuclear

High Nuclear

Reference

Unplanned

 Planned

Figure 35. Nuclear capacity additions in five cases, 

2011-2040 (gigawatts)

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

2011 Projections

Reference

Low Nuclear

High Nuclear

Figure 36. Electricity generation from natural gas in 

three cases, 2005-2040 (billion kilowatthours per year)
48 U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013

Issues in focus

mostly natural gas and some coal [107]. In the High Nuclear case, CO2 emissions from the power sector are 1 percent lower than 

projected in the Reference case, because the High Nuclear case results in slightly more generation from nuclear units than from 

fossil-fueled units (Figure 37).

Real average electricity prices in 2040 are 1 percent lower in the High Nuclear case than in the Reference case, as slightly less 

natural gas capacity is dispatched, reducing natural gas prices, which lowers the marginal price of electricity. In the Low Nuclear 

case, average electricity prices in 2040 are 5 percent higher than in the Reference case as a result of the retirement of a significant 

amount of nuclear capacity, which has relatively low operating costs, and its replacement with natural gas capacity, which has 

higher fuel costs that are passed through to consumers in retail electricity prices.

The impacts of nuclear plant retirements on retail electricity prices in the Low Nuclear case are more apparent in regions with 

relatively large amounts of nuclear capacity. For example, electricity prices in the Low Nuclear case are 9 percent higher in 2040 

than in the Reference case for the SERC (Southeast) region, 8 percent higher for the MRO (Midwest) region, and 6 percent higher 

in the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, and Ohio River Valley regions [108]. Even in regions where no nuclear capacity is retired, there 

are small increases in electricity prices compared to the Reference case, because higher demand for natural gas in regions where 

nuclear plants are retired increases the price of natural gas in all regions.

In the Small Modular Reactor case, shorter construction periods result in lower interest costs, which help to reduce the overall cost 

of nuclear construction projects. Figure 38 compares the resulting levelized costs for traditional large reactors and for SMRs in the 

Reference case. For SMRs, there is a savings of approximately $6 per megawatthour in the capital portion of the levelized cost. 

However, estimates of the fixed O&M costs for SMRs, derived from a University of Chicago study [109], are 40 percent higher 

than those assumed in AEO2013 for a new large-scale plant on a dollar per megawatt basis. The higher O&M cost could offset, in 

part, the capital cost benefit of a shorter construction period. Therefore, the SMR case shows only a 1.4-percent reduction in overall 

levelized cost relative to the Reference case. The small difference results in about 2.3 gigawatts more new nuclear power capacity 

in the Small Modular Reactor case than projected in the Reference case. The sensitivity to small changes in cost is notable, given 

the high degree of uncertainty associated with SMR costs based on the maturity of the technology.

6. Effect of natural gas liquids growth

Background

NGL include a wide range of components produced during natural gas processing and petroleum refining. As natural gas production 

in recent years has grown dramatically, there has been a concurrent rapid increase in NGL production. NGL include ethane, 

propane, normal butane (n-butane), isobutane, and pentanes plus. The rising supply of some NGL components (particularly 

ethane and propane) has led to challenges, in finding markets and building the infrastructure necessary to move NGL to the new 

domestic demand and export markets. This discussion examines recent changes in U.S. NGL markets and how they might evolve 

under several scenarios. The future disposition of U.S. NGL supplies, particularly in international markets, is also discussed.

Recent growth in NGL production (Figure 39) has resulted largely from strong growth in shale gas production. The lightest NGL 

components, ethane and propane, account for most of the growth in NGL supply between 2008 and 2012. With the exception of 

propane, the main source of NGL is natural gas processing associated with growing natural gas production. That growth has led to 

Reference Small Modular Reactor

Transmission costs

Fixed operating 

and maintenance costs

Capital costs

Fuel and variable operating

and maintenance costs

0

20

40

60

80

100

Figure 38. Levelized costs of nuclear 

electricity generation in two cases, 2025 

(2011 dollars per megawatthour)

1,750

2,000

2,250

2,500

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

2011 Projections

Reference

Low Nuclear

High Nuclear

0

Figure 37. Carbon dioxide emissions from 

electricity generation in three cases, 2005-2040 

(million metric tons carbon dioxide 

equivalent per year)
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013 49

Issues in focus

logistical problems in some areas. For example, much of the increased ethane supply in the Marcellus region is stranded because 

of the distance from petrochemical markets in the Gulf Coast area.

The uses of NGL are diverse. The lightest NGL component, ethane, is used almost exclusively as a petrochemical feedstock to 

produce ethylene, which in turn is a basic building block for plastics, packaging materials, and other consumer products. A limited 

amount of ethane can be left in the natural gas stream (ethane rejection) if the value of ethane sinks too close to the value of 

dry natural gas, but the amount of ethane mixed in dry natural gas is small. Propane is the most versatile NGL component, with 

applications ranging from residential heating, to transportation fuel for forklifts, to petrochemical feedstock for propylene and 

ethylene production (nearly one-half of all propane use in the United States is as petrochemical feedstock). Butanes are produced 

in much smaller quantities and are used mostly in refining (for gasoline blending or alkylation) or as chemical feedstock. The 

heaviest liquids, known as pentanes plus, are used as ethanol denaturant, blendstock for gasoline, chemical feedstock, and, more 

recently, as diluent for the extraction and pipeline movement of heavy crude oils from Canada.

Unlike the other NGL components, a large proportion of propane is produced in refineries (which is mixed with refinery-marketed 

propylene). Given that refinery production of propane and propylene has been largely unchanged since 2005 at about 540 

thousand barrels per day, the growth of propane/propylene supply shown in Figure 39 is solely a result of increased propane 

yields from natural gas processing plants.

International demand for NGL has provided an outlet for growing domestic production, and after years of being a net importer, the 

United States became a net exporter of propane in 2012 (Figure 40). Although the quantities shown in Figure 40, based on EIA 

data, represent an aggregated mixture of propane and propylene, other sources indicate that U.S. propylene exports have been on 

the decline since 2007 [110], implying that the recent change to net exporter status is the result of increased supplies of propane 

from natural gas processing plants.

Current developments in NGL markets

The market currently is reacting to the growing supply of ethane and propane by expanding both domestic use of NGL and export 

capacity. On the domestic side, much of the U.S. petrochemical industry can absorb ethane and propane by switching from 

heavier petroleum-based naphtha feedstock in ethylene crackers to lighter feedstock, and recent record low NGL prices have 

motivated petrochemical companies to maximize the amount of ethane and propane in their feedstock slate. To take advantage of 

the expected growth in supplies of light NGL components resulting from shale gas production, multiple projects and expansions 

of petrochemical crackers have been announced (Table 7).

Although the proposed projects shown in Table 7 will largely take advantage of the growing ethane supply, a few petrochemical 

projects that will use propane directly as a propylene feedstock through propane dehydrogenation also have been announced 

[111]. Although expanded feedstock use is expected to be by far the largest source of expanded demand for NGL, increased use 

of NGL as a fuel, especially propane, also is expected—including the marketing of propane as an alternative vehicle fuel [112] and 

for agricultural use, with propane suppliers currently offering incentives for farmers to use propane as a fuel to power irrigation 

systems [113].

Notwithstanding the efforts to encourage the use of propane as a fuel in the United States, and despite current low prices, 

opportunities to expand the market for propane in uses other than as feedstock are limited. Therefore, producers, gas processors, 

and fractionators are looking for a growing export outlet for both ethane and liquefied petroleum gases (LPG—a mixture of 

0 1 2 3 4

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Pentanes plus

Isobutane

n-Butane

Propane/propylene

Ethane

Figure 39. U.S. production of natural gas liquids by 

type, 2005-2012 (million barrels per day)

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Imports

Exports

Figure 40. U.S. imports and exports of propane/

propylene, 2005-2012 (million barrels per day)
50 U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013

Issues in focus

propane and butane). Export capacity is being expanded, both on the U.S. Gulf Coast (Targa’s expansion of both its gas processing 

and fractionation capability at Mont Belvieu and its export facility at Galena Park [114]) and on the U.S. East Coast (Sunoco 

Logistics’ Mariner East project to supply propane and ethane to Philadelphia’s Marcus Hook terminal [115, 116]). Exports of ethane 

from the Marcellus shale to chemical facilities in Sarnia, Ontario, via the Mariner West pipeline system, and from the Bakken 

formation to a NOVA Chemical plant near Joffre, Alberta, via the Vantage pipeline [117], are expected by the end of 2013. In 

addition to planned exports to Canada, a pipeline is being developed to transport ethane from the Marcellus to the Gulf Coast to 

relieve oversupply. The midstream sector’s rapid buildup and expansion of natural gas processing, pipeline, and storage capacity 

have accommodated increasing volumes of NGL resulting from the sharp growth in shale gas production.

AEO2013 projections

AEO2013 projects continued growth in both natural gas production and NGL supplies, with NGL prices determined in large part by 

Brent crude oil prices and Henry Hub spot prices for natural gas (Figure 41). In the AEO2013 Reference, Low Oil and Gas Resource, 

and High Oil and Gas Resource cases, industrial propane prices in 2040 range from $22.13 per million Btu (2011 dollars) in the 

High Oil and Gas Resource case to $27.48 per million Btu in the Low Oil and Gas Resource case, a difference of approximately 24 

percent. The difference between the propane prices in the High and Low Oil and Gas Resource cases increases from $3.49 per 

million Btu in 2015 to $7.00 per million Btu in 2025 as natural gas prices and NGL production diverge in the two cases. Over time, 

however, as the divergence in NGL production narrows between the cases, the influence of oil prices on propane prices increases, 

and the difference in the propane prices narrows in the cases.

Production of NGPL, which are extracted from wet natural 

gas by gas processors, rises more steeply than natural gas 

production in the first half of the projection period as a result 

of increased natural gas and oil production from shale wells, 

which have relatively high liquids contents. As shale gas plays 

mature, NGPL production levels off or declines even as dry 

natural gas production increases (Figure 42).

Variations in NGL supplies and prices contribute to variations 

in demand for NGL. In the High Oil and Gas Resource case, 

propane demand in all sectors is higher than projected in the 

Reference case, and in the Low Oil and Gas Resource case 

propane demand is lower than in the Reference case. Some 

of the difference results from changes in the expected energy 

efficiency of space heating equipment in the residential 

sector, and possibly some fuel switching, in response to 

Table 7. Proposed additions of U.S. 

ethylene production capacity, 2013-2020 

(million metric tons per year)

Company Location Proposed capacity

Chevron Phillips Baytown, TX 1.5

Exxon Mobil Baytown, TX 1.5

Sasol Lake Charles, LA 1.4

Dow Freeport, TX 1.4

Shell Beaver Co, PA 1.3

Formosa Point Comfort, TX 0.8

Occidental/

Mexichem

Ingleside, TX 0.5

Dow St. Charles, LA 0.4

LyondellBasell Laporte, TX 0.4

Aither Chemicals Kanawha, WV 0.3

Williams/Sabic JV Geismar, LA 0.2

Ineos Alvin, TX 0.2

Westlake Lake Charles, LA 0.2

Williams/Sabic JV Geismar, LA 0.1

Total 10.1

180

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Brent crude oil (2011 dollars per barrel)

Henry Hub natural gas (2011 dollars per million Btu)

2011 0

4

8

12

High Oil and Gas Resource

Low Oil and Gas Resource

Reference

0

60

120

History Projections

Figure 41. U.S. Brent crude oil and Henry Hub 

natural gas spot market prices in three cases, 

2005-2040

0

2

4

6

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

0

20

40

60

2011

Dry gas production (trillion cubic feet)

Natural gas plant liquids (million barrels per day)

Low Oil and Gas Resource

High Oil and Gas Resource

Reference

History Projections

Figure 42. U.S. production of dry natural gas 

and natural gas plant liquids in three cases, 

2005-2040
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013 51

Issues in focus

different price levels in the three cases. The remainder is attributed to variations in NGL feedstock consumption in the bulk 

chemicals sector, where the use of NGL as a fuel and feedstock varies with different price levels. In addition, because NGL 

feedstock competes with petroleum naphtha in the petrochemical industry, lower NGL prices relative to oil prices lead to more 

NGL consumption in the petrochemical industry.

The LPG import-export balance changes rapidly when domestic supply exceeds demand. This trend continues in the near term in all 

three cases. In the High Oil and Gas Resource case, however, with more LPG production, net exports continue to grow throughout 

the projection (Figure 43). Propane accounts for most of the higher export volumes, which also include smaller amounts of butane 

and ethane. Currently, most U.S. exports of LPG go to Latin America, where LPG is used for heating and cooking.

International implications

The projected growth in NGL demand both for U.S. domestic uses and for export depends heavily on international markets. Current 

plans for ethane exports are limited to pipelines to Canada, and to date ethane is not shipped by ocean-going vessels. There is 

room for growth in propane exports, however, because propane is a far more versatile fuel. Propane exports to Latin America are 

expected to continue, along with some expansion into European markets. In addition, growing markets in Africa [118] for propane 

used in heating and cooking, along with continued demand from Asia (for fuel and feedstock), are expected to support exports of 

propane from both the United States and the Middle East. It remains to be seen how the market for propane exports will develop 

in the long term, and how the United States will seek value for its propane—converting it into chemicals for domestic use or for 

export, or exporting raw propane.

International markets also play a role in increased domestic consumption, particularly for expanded petrochemical feedstock 

consumption. The declining price of ethane improves the economics of ethylene crackers, as indicated by the planned capacities 

shown in Table 7. The new capacity suggests that companies are planning to gain a greater market share of ethylene demand in 

Asia, especially in China, which continues to be a growing importer of ethylene [119]. However, that economic advantage has to 

be weighed against the massive growth in chemical manufacturing complexes in the Middle East, as well as expansions in Asia. 

Feedstock availability will not be a concern in the Middle East, but most petrochemical plants in China and other Asian countries 

rely heavily on naphtha as a feedstock, and naphtha is produced from crude oil, which China imports. China is making efforts to 

diversify its feedstock slate and has announced plans to build coal-to-olefins plants [120]. In addition, China may develop its own 

shale gas resources over the next 10 to 15 years, which could provide less expensive supplies of ethane and propane. The advantage 

in the Middle East is its long-term access to feedstocks. Whether the United States can further capitalize on growth in basic 

chemical production (ethylene, propylene) to build up its higher-value chemical base, and how the production cost of those higher 

value chemicals would compete with those from Asia and the Middle East, is an open question.

Future plans for U.S. propane disposition will be based on the 

balance between growth in domestic demand and exports. 

Rising exports of propane and butane raise issues as well. 

For example, both propane and butane can be used not only 

as feedstock in ethylene crackers, but also as feedstock for 

specific chemical product. For example, dehydrogenation 

processes can make propylene from propane [121] and 

butadiene from butane [122]. The economic value of those 

chemicals (which would depend on both local and global 

markets), weighed against the export value of the NGL 

inputs (propane and butane), will need to be assessed. In 

addition, the value of derivatives (such as polyethylene and 

polypropylene) will be considered from the perspective of 

both their export value and their production costs, which will 

be tied directly to the price of their precursor inputs, ethylene 

and propylene. Finally, U.S. refineries produce a significant 

amount of propylene. There is some degree of flexibility within 

refineries’ fluid catalytic cracker units to produce propylene 

[123], and future refinery production of propylene will depend 

on the value of propylene itself, the value of its co-products 

(mostly gasoline and propane), and refining costs.

Low Oil and Gas Resource

High Oil and Gas Resource

Reference

-0.5

0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2011 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Figure 43. U.S. net exports of liquefied petroleum 

gases in three cases, 2011-2040 

(million barrels per day)
52 U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013

Issues in focus

Endnotes for Issues in focus

Links current as of March 2013

65. United States Internal Revenue Code, Title 26, Subtitle A—Income Taxes, §48(a)(2)(A)(ii), http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/

pkg/USCODE-2011-title26/pdf/USCODE-2011-title26-subtitleA-chap1-subchapA.pdf.

66. United States Internal Revenue Code, Title 26, Subtitle A—Income Taxes, §48(c)(3)(B)(iii), http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/

pkg/USCODE-2011-title26/pdf/USCODE-2011-title26-subtitleA-chap1-subchapA.pdf.

67. Calculations based on U.S. Energy Information Administration, Form EIA-860, Schedule 3, 2011 data (Washington, DC: 

January 9, 2013), http://www.eia.gov/electricity/data/eia860/index.html.

68. U.S. Congress, “American Taxpayer Relief Act of 2012,” P.L. 112-240, Sections 401 through 412, http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/

pkg/PLAW-112publ240/pdf/PLAW-112publ240.pdf.

69. Modeled provisions based on U.S. Congress, “American Taxpayer Relief Act of 2012,” P.L. 112-240, Sections 401, 404, 405, 

407, 408, 409, and 412, http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/PLAW-112publ240/pdf/PLAW-112publ240.pdf.

70. Volatility is a measure of variability in a data series over time (more technically, the annualized standard deviation from the 

mean). This analysis was conducted using the GARCH estimation method for monthly average Brent crude oil prices.

71. Liquid fuels consists of crude oil and condensate to petroleum refineries, refinery gain, NGPL, biofuels, and other liquid fuels 

produced from non-crude oil feedstocks such as CTL and GTL.

72. Geologic characteristics relevant for hydrocarbon extraction include depth, thickness, porosity, carbon content, pore 

pressure, clay content, thermal maturity, and water content.

73. A production type curve represents the expected production each year from a well. A well’s EUR equals the cumulative 

production of that well over a 30-year productive life, using current technology without consideration of economic or 

operating conditions. A description of a production type curve is provided in the Annual Energy Outlook 2012 “Issues in 

focus” article, “U.S. crude oil and natural gas resource uncertainty,” http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/archive/aeo12/IF_all.

cfm#uscrude.

74. A more detailed analysis of the uncertainty in offshore resources is presented in the Annual Energy Outlook 2011 “Issues 

in focus” article, “Potential of offshore crude oil and natural gas resources,” http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/archive/aeo11/

IF_all.cfm#potentialoffshore.

75. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and National Highway Transportation Safety Administration, “2017 and Later Model 

Year Light-Duty Vehicle Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Corporate Average Fuel Economy Standards: Final Rule,” Federal 

Register, Vol. 77, No. 199 (Washington, DC: October 15, 2012), https://www.federalregister.gov/articles/2012/10/15/2012-

21972/2017-and-later-model-year-light-duty-vehicle-greenhouse-gas-emissions-and-corporate-average-fuel.

76. K.A. Small and K.Van Dender, “Fuel Efficiency and Motor Vehicle Travel: The Declining Rebound Effect,” University of 

California, Irvine, Department of Economics, Working Paper #05-06-03 (Irvine, CA: August 18, 2007), http://www.

economics.uci.edu/files/economics/docs/workingpapers/2005-06/Small-03.pdf.

77. National Petroleum Council, “Advancing Technology for America’s Transportation Future” (Washington, DC: August 1, 

2012), http://www.npc.org/FTF-report-080112/NPC-Fuels_Summary_Report.pdf.

78. International Maritime Organization, Information Resources on Air Pollution and Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Emissions from 

International Shipping (Marpol Annex VI (SOX, NOX, ODS, VOC) / Greenhouse Gas (CO2) and Climate Change) (London, 

United Kingdom: December 23, 2011), http://www.imo.org/KnowledgeCentre/InformationResourcesOnCurrentTopics/

AirPollutionandGreenhouseGasEmissionsfromInternationalShippping/Documents/Information%20Resources%20

on%20AIR%20POLLUTION%20AND%20GHG%20EMISSIONS%20FROM%20INTERNATIONAL%20SHIPPING.pdf.

79. U.S. Energy Information Administration, “Could the United States become the leading global producer of liquid fuels, and 

how much does it matter to U.S. and world energy markets?,” This Week in Petroleum (Washington, DC: December 19, 2012), 

http://www.eia.gov/oog/info/twip/twiparch/2012/121219/twipprint.html.

80. U.S. Energy Information Administration, “Could the United States become the leading global producer of liquid fuels, and 

how much does it matter to U.S. and world energy markets?,” This Week in Petroleum (Washington, DC: December 19, 2012), 

http://www.eia.gov/oog/info/twip/twiparch/2012/121219/twipprint.html.

81. The circumstances under which the United States can and cannot export crude oil under current law are more fully described 

in U.S. Energy Information Administration, “Market implications of increased domestic production of light sweet crude oil?,” 

This Week in Petroleum (Washington, DC: November 28, 2012), http://www.eia.gov/oog/info/twip/twiparch/2012/121128/

twipprint.html.
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013 53

Issues in focus

82. EPA’s Proposed Carbon Pollution Standard for New Power Plants would require that new fossil fuel-fired power plants meet 

an output-based standard of 1,000 pounds of carbon dioxide per megawatthour of electricity generated. That standard 

would effectively prohibit the construction of new coal-fired power plants without carbon capture and storage. Currently, 

the EPA is evaluating comments and expects to issue a final rule in 2013. Because the rule is not yet final, it is not assumed 

to take effect in any of the AEO2013 cases.

83. U.S. Energy Information Administration, “Uprates can increase U.S. nuclear capacity substantially without building new 

reactors,” Today in Energy (Washington DC: July 17, 2012), http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=7130.

84. U.S. Energy Information Administration, “Form EIA-860 detailed data” (Washington, DC: September 24, 2012, for Final 2011 

data; revised January 9, 2013), http://www.eia.gov/electricity/data/eia860/index.html.

85. U.S. Energy Information Administration, “Levelized Cost of New Generation Resources in the Annual Energy Outlook 2013,” 

in AEO2013 Early Release Overview, DOE/EIA-0383ER(2013) (Washington, DC: January 28, 2013), http://www.eia.gov/

forecasts/aeo/er/electricity_generation.cfm.

86. U.S. Energy Information Administration, Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2013, DOE/EIA-0554(2013) (Washington, 

DC: April 2013), http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/assumptions/.

87. U.S. Government Printing Office, “Energy Policy Act of 2005, Public Law 109-58, Title XVII—Incentives for Innovative 

Technologies” (Washington, DC: August 8, 2005), http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/PLAW-109publ58/html/PLAW109publ58.htm.

88. U.S. Department of Energy, Loan Programs Office, “Loan Guarantee Program: Georgia Power Company” (Washington, DC: 

June 4, 2012), http://www.lpo.energy.gov/?projects=georgia-power-company.

89. U.S. Government Printing Office, “Energy Policy Act of 2005, Public Law 109-58, Title XVII—Incentives for Innovative 

Technologies, Sections 638, 988, and 1306” (Washington, DC: August 2005), http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/PLAW109publ58/html/PLAW-109publ58.htm.

90. Electric Power Research Institute, “2012 Research Portfolio: Long Term Operations (QA)” (Palo Alto, CA: 2012) http://

mydocs.epri.com/docs/Portfolio/PDF/2012_41-10-01.pdf.

91. Electric Power Research Institute, “2013 Research Portfolio: Materials Degradation/Aging” (Palo Alto, CA: 2013), http://

portfolio.epri.com/Research.aspx?sId=NUC&rId=211.

92. L.J. Bond and D.L. Brenchley, Proceedings of the Inaugural Meeting of the International Forum for Reactor Aging Management 

(IFRAM), PNNL-20719 (Colorado Springs, CO: September, 2011), http://ifram.pnnl.gov/reports/PNNL-20719_Proceedings_

IFRAMKick-OffMtg-091911.pdf.

93. U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, “Orders to Implement Japan Lessons-Learned” (Washington, DC: March 12, 2012), 

http://www.nrc.gov/reactors/operating/ops-experience/japan/byorders/.

94. R. Lum, “Moody’s: Building new nuclear a ‘bet the farm’ endeavor for most companies,” SNL Energy (July 10, 2009), https://

www.snl.com/interactivex/article.aspx?id=9764943&KPLT=6 (subscription site).

95. Duke Energy, “Duke Energy Fast Facts” (Charlotte, NC: July 9, 2012), http://www.duke-energy.com/pdfs/de-factsheet.pdf.

96. U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, “Policy Issues Associated with Licensing Advanced Reactor Designs” (Washington, 

DC: March 29, 2012), http://www.nrc.gov/reactors/advanced/policy-issues.html.

97. U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, “Potential Policy, Licensing, and Key Technical Issues for Small Modular Nuclear 

Reactor Designs” (Washington, DC: March 28, 2010), http://pbadupws.nrc.gov/docs/ML0932/ML093290268.pdf.

98. U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Report to Congress: Advanced Reactor Licensing (Washington, DC: August 2012), 

http://pbadupws.nrc.gov/docs/ML1215/ML12153A014.pdf.

99. U.S. Department of Energy, “Economic Aspects of Small Modular Reactors” (Washington, DC: March 1, 2012), http://www.

energy.gov/sites/prod/files/Economic%20Aspects%20of%20SMRs.pdf.

100. U.S Department of Energy, “Obama Administration Announces $450 Million to Design and Commercialize U.S. Small 

Modular Nuclear Reactors” (Washington, DC: March 22, 2012), http://energy.gov/ne/articles/obama-administrationannounces-450-million-design-and-commercialize-us.

101. U.S Department of Energy, “Energy Department Announces New Investment in U.S. Small Modular Reactor Design and 

Commercialization” (Washington, DC: November 20, 2012), http://energy.gov/articles/energy-department-announcesnew-investment-us-small-modular-reactor-design-and.

102. M.R. Blood, “Troubled Calif. nuke plant aims to restart reactor,” USA Today (October 4, 2012), http://www.usatoday.com/

story/news/nation/2012/10/04/troubled-calif-nuke-plant-aims-to-restart-reactor/1614255/.

103. E. Wolff, “Consumers may not get San Onofre outage bill,” U-T San Diego (October 25, 2012), http://www.utsandiego.com/

news/2012/oct/25/customers-could-save-360-million-dark-nuke-plant-p/.
54 U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013

Issues in focus

104. P. Arévalo, “San Onofre to Cut 730 Jobs,” San Juan Capistrano Patch (August 20, 2012), http://sanjuancapistrano.patch.

com/articles/san-onofre-to-cut-730-jobs.

105. “Costly estimates for Crystal River repairs,” World Nuclear News (October 2, 2012), http://www.world-nuclear-news.org/

C-Costly_estimates_for_Crystal_River_repairs-0210124.html.

106. Reuters, “UPDATE 1-Duke Energy says Crystal River nuclear repair could exceed $3 bln” (October 1, 2012), http://www.

reuters.com/article/2012/10/01/utilities-duke-crystalriver-idUSL1E8L1PQ520121001.

107. Coal has a CO2 emissions factor approximately double that of natural gas. CO2 uncontrolled emissions factors for the 

electric power sector can be found in EIA’s “Electric Power Annual,” Table A.3, http://www.eia.gov/electricity/annual/html/

epa_a_03.html.

108. The SERC Region in NEMS is represented by an aggregate of EMM Regions 12, 13, 14, 15, and 16. The MRO Region is 

represented by EMM Regions 3 and 4. The Northeast is represented by EMM regions 5, 6, 7, and 8. The Mid-Atlantic and 

Ohio Valley are represented by EMM Regions 9, 10, and 11.

109. R. Rosner and S. Goldberg, “Small Modular Reactors—Key to Future Nuclear Power Generation in the U.S.,” University of 

Chicago Energy Policy Institute at Chicago (November 2011), http://epic.sites.uchicago.edu/sites/epic.uchicago.edu/files/

uploads/EPICSMRWhitePaperFinalcopy.pdf.

110. Global Data, “Propylene Exports,” Petrochemicals eTrack (March 2013), http://petrochemicalsetrack.com (subscription site).

111. A. Greenwood, “Tight US propylene may lead to two more PDH plants,” ICIS News (June 25, 2012), http://www.icis.com/

Articles/2012/06/25/9572490/tight-us-propylene-may-lead-to-two-more-pdh-plants.html.

112. J. Schroeder, “ProCOT Launches Propane Education Campaign,” Ethanol Report (March 11, 2013), http://domesticfuel.

com/2013/03/11/procot-launches-propane-education-campaign.

113. Propane Education and Research Council, “Programs and Incentives,” http://www.agpropane.com/programs-and-incentives.

114. Targa Resources, “Targa Resources Partners LP Announces Project to Export International Grade Propane,” Globe Newswire 

(Houston, TX: September 19, 2011), http://ir.targaresources.com/releasedetail.cfm?releaseid=606206.

115. A. Maykuth, “Former Sunoco Refinery in Marcus Hook Will Process Marcellus Shale Products,” The Philadelphia Inquirer 

(Philadelphia, PA: September 28, 2012), http://articles.philly.com/2012-09-28/business/34128480_1_ethane-sunocologistics-sunoco-s-marcus-hook.

116. “More US Marcellus projects needed to absorb ethane production,” ICIS News (Houston, TX: October 10, 2011), http://www.

icis.com/Articles/2011/10/10/9498866/more-us-marcellus-projects-needed-to-absorb-ethane-production.html.

117. C.E. Smith, “US NGL Pipelines Expand to Match Liquids Growth,” Oil and Gas Journal (May 7, 2012), http://www.ogj.com/

articles/print/vol-110/issue-5/special-report-worldwide-gas/us-ngl-pipelines-expand.html (subscription site).

118. S. Williams, “LPG - the fuel for Africa,” New African (December 2007), http://www.africasia.com/uploads/na_oilgas_1207.pdf.

119. “China’s ethylene import dependency rises in January-May,” ICIS C1Energy (July 17, 2012), http://www.c1energy.com/

common/4162279,0,0,0,2.htm.

120. B. Thiennes, “Increased Coal-to-Olefins Processes in China,” Hydrocarbon Processing (Houston, TX: October 1, 2012), http://

www.hydrocarbonprocessing.com/Article/3096211/Increased-coal-to-olefins-processes-in-China.html.

121. A. Greenwood, “Tight US propylene may lead to two more PDH plants,” ICIS News (June 25, 2012), http://www.icis.com/

Articles/2012/06/25/9572490/tight-us-propylene-may-lead-to-two-more-pdh-plants.html.

122. J. Richardson, “Butadiene Oversupply Threat,” ICIS Asian Chemical Connections (May 10, 2012), http://www.icis.com/blogs/

asian-chemical-connections/2012/05/butadiene-oversupply-threat.html.

123. K.A. Couch et. al., “FCC propylene production,” Petroleum Technology Quarterly (2007), http://www.uop.com/wp-content/

uploads/2011/02/UOP-FCC-Propylene-Production-Tech-Paper.pdf.
Market trends

Projections by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) are not statements of what will happen but of what might 

happen, given the assumptions and methodologies used for any particular case. The Reference case projection is a business-as-usual estimate, given known market, demographic, and technological trends. Most cases in the Annual Energy 

Outlook 2013 (AEO2013) generally assume that current laws and regulations are maintained throughout the projections. 

Such projections provide a baseline starting point that can be used to analyze policy initiatives. EIA explores the impacts 

of alternative assumptions in other cases with different macroeconomic growth rates, world oil prices, rates of technology 

progress, and policy changes. 

While energy markets are complex, energy models are simplified representations of energy production and consumption, 

regulations, and producer and consumer behavior. Projections are highly dependent on the data, methodologies, model 

structures, and assumptions used in their development. Behavioral characteristics are indicative of real-world tendencies 

rather than representations of specific outcomes.

Energy market projections are subject to much uncertainty. Many of the events that shape energy markets are random and 

cannot be anticipated. In addition, future developments in technologies, demographics, and resources cannot be foreseen 

with certainty. Many key uncertainties in the AEO2013 projections are addressed through alternative cases.

EIA has endeavored to make these projections as objective, reliable, and useful as possible; however, they should serve as 

an adjunct to, not as a substitute for, a complete and focused analysis of public policy initiatives.
56 U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013

Trends in economic activity

Productivity and investment offset slow 

growth in labor force

Slow consumption growth, rapid investment 

growth, and an increasing trade surplus

AEO2013 presents three economic growth cases: Reference, High, 

and Low. The High Economic Growth case assumes high growth 

and low inflation. The Low Economic Growth case assumes low 

growth and high inflation. The short-term outlook (5 years) in 

each case represents current thinking about economic activity 

in the United States and the rest of the world, about the impacts 

of fiscal and monetary policies, and about potential risks to 

economic activity. The long-term outlook includes smooth economic growth, assuming no shocks to the economy.

Differences among the Reference, High, and Low Economic 

Growth cases reflect different expectations for growth in population (specifically, net immigration), labor force, capital stock, 

and productivity, which are above trend in the High Economic 

Growth case and below trend in the Low Economic Growth 

case. The average annual growth rate for real GDP from 2011 

to 2040 in the Reference case is 2.5 percent, as compared with 

2.9 percent in the High Economic Growth case and 2.0 percent 

in the Low Economic Growth case.

Figure 45 compares the average annual growth rates for output 

and its major components in each of the three cases. Compared 

with the 1985-2011 period, investment growth from 2011 to 

2040 is faster in all three cases, whereas consumption, government expenditures, imports, and exports grow more slowly in 

all three cases. Opportunities for trade are assumed to expand 

in all three cases, resulting in real trade surpluses that continue 

to grow throughout the projection period.

Growth in the output of the U.S. economy depends on increases 

in the labor force, the growth of capital stock, and improvements 

in productivity. In the Annual Energy Outlook 2013 (AEO2013)

Reference case, U.S. labor force growth slows over the projection period as the baby boom generation starts to retire, but 

projected growth in business fixed investment and spending on 

research and development offsets the slowdown in labor force 

growth. Annual real gross domestic product (GDP) growth 

averages 2.5 percent per year from 2011 to 2040 in the Reference case (Figure 44), which is 0.2 percentage point slower 

than the growth rate over the past 30 years. Slow long-run 

increases in the labor force indicate more moderate long-run 

employment growth, with total civilian employment rising by 

an average of 1.0 percent per year from 2011 to 2040, from 131 

million in 2011 to 174 million in 2040. The manufacturing share 

of total employment continues to decline over the projection 

period, falling from 9 percent in 2011 to 6 percent in 2040.

Real consumption growth averages 2.2 percent per year in the 

Reference case. The share of GDP accounted for by personal 

consumption expenditures varies between 66 percent and 

71 percent of GDP from 2011 to 2040, with the share spent 

on services rising mainly as a result of increasing expenditures on health care. The share of GDP devoted to business 

fixed investment ranges from 10 percent to 17 percent of GDP 

through 2040.

Issues such as financial market reform, fiscal policies, and 

financial problems in Europe, among others, affect both shortrun and long-run growth, adding uncertainty to the projections.

Figure 44. Average annual growth rates of real GDP, 

labor force, and productivity in three cases, 2011-2040 

(percent per year)

Actual,

1985-2011

Low 

Economic 

Growth

Reference High 

Economic 

Growth

Government

Consumption

Gross domestic product Imports

Investment

Exports

0

2

4

6

8

Reference

Low Economic Growth

High Economic Growth

0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

Real GDP Labor force Productivity

Figure 45. Average annual growth rates for real output 

and its major components in three cases, 2011-2040 

(percent per year)
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013 57

Total U.S. energy expenditures decline relative to GDP [125] in 

the AEO2013 Reference case (Figure 47). The projected ratio of 

energy expenditures to GDP averages 6.8 percent from 2011 to 

2040, which is below the historical average of 8.8 percent from 

1970 to 2010.

Figure 48 shows nominal energy expenditures relative to U.S. 

gross output, which roughly correspond to sales in the U.S. 

economy. Thus, the figure gives an approximation of total 

energy expenditures relative to total sales. Energy expenditures as a share of gross output show nearly the same pattern 

as their share of GDP, declining through 2040. The average 

shares of gross output relative to expenditures for total energy, 

petroleum, and natural gas, at 3.5 percent, 2.2 percent, and 0.4 

percent, are close to their historical averages of 4.2 percent, 2.1 

percent, and 0.7 percent, respectively.

In recent decades, industrial sector shipments expanded more 

slowly than the overall economy, with imports meeting a large 

share of demand for goods and the service sector growing rapidly [124]. In the Reference case, real GDP grows at an average 

annual rate of 2.5 percent from 2011 to 2040, while the industrial sector increases by 2.0 percent per year (Figure 46).

Industrial sector output goes through two distinct growth 

periods in the AEO2013 Reference case, with energy-intensive 

industries displaying the sharpest contrast between the periods. Recovery from the recession in the U.S. industrial sector 

has been relatively slow, with only mining, aluminum, machinery, and transportation equipment industries recovering to 

2008 levels in 2011. However, as the recovery continues and 

increased oil and natural gas production from shale resources 

begins to affect U.S. competitiveness, growth in U.S. manufacturing output accelerates through 2022.

After 2020, manufacturing output slows because of increased 

foreign competition and rising energy prices, which weigh most 

heavily on the energy-intensive industries. The energy-intensive 

industries grow at a rate of 1.8 percent per year from 2011 to 

2020 and 0.6 percent per year from 2020 to 2040. Growth 

rates within the sector vary by industry, ranging from an annual 

average of 0.6 percent for bulk chemicals to 2.8 percent for the 

cement industry.

Export expansion is an important factor for industrial production 

growth, along with consumer demand and investment. A decline 

in U.S. dollar exchange rates, combined with modest escalation 

in unit labor costs, stimulates U.S. exports in the projection. From 

2011 to 2040, real exports of goods and services increase by an 

average of 5.5 percent per year, while real imports of goods and 

services grow by an average of 3.8 percent per year.

Energy trends in the economy

Energy-intensive industries show strong 

early growth in output

Energy expenditures decline relative to 

gross domestic product and gross output

Nonmanufacturing

Energy-intensive

manufacturing

Non-energy-intensive

manufacturing

Industrial sector total

0 1 2 3 4

Low Economic Growth

High Economic Growth

Reference

Figure 46. Sectoral composition of industrial 

shipments, annual growth rates in three cases, 

2011-2040 (percent per year)

0

5

10

15

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

All energy

Petroleum

Natural gas

History 2011 Projections

Figure 47. Energy end-use expenditures as a share 

of gross domestic product, 1970-2040 (nominal 

expenditures as percent of nominal GDP)

Figure 48. Energy end-use expenditures as a share 

of gross output, 1987-2040 (nominal expenditures as 

percent of nominal gross output)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1987 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

All energy

Petroleum

Natural gas

History 2011 Projections
58 U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013

In AEO2013, the Brent crude oil price is tracked as the main 

benchmark for world oil prices. The West Texas Intermediate 

(WTI) crude oil price has recently been discounted relative to 

other world benchmark crude prices. The recent growth in U.S. 

mid-continental oil production has exceeded the capacity of 

the oil transportation infrastructure out of Cushing, Oklahoma, 

the market center for WTI prices. The U.S. Energy Information 

Administration (EIA) expects the WTI price to approach levels 

near the Brent price as new oil pipeline capacity is added and 

begins operation.

Future oil prices are uncertain. EIA develops three oil price 

cases—Reference, High, and Low—to examine how alternative 

price paths could affect future energy markets (Figure 49). The 

AEO2013 price cases were developed by changing assumptions 

about four key factors: (1) the economics of petroleum liquids 

supply from countries outside the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (non-OPEC), (2) OPEC investment 

and production decisions, (3) the economics of other nonpetroleum liquids supply, and (4) world demand for petroleum 

and other liquids.

Relative to the Reference case, the Low Oil Price case assumes 

lower levels of world economic growth and liquid fuels demand, 

as well as more abundant and less costly non-OPEC liquid fuels 

supply. In the Low Oil Price case, OPEC supplies 49 percent of 

the world’s liquid fuels in 2040, compared with 43 percent in 

the Reference case. The High Oil Price case assumes higher levels of world economic growth and liquid fuels demand, along 

with less abundant and more costly non-OPEC liquid fuels supply. In the High Oil Price case, OPEC supplies 40 percent of the 

world’s liquid fuels in 2040.

International energy

Range of oil price cases represents 

uncertainty in world oil markets

Trends in petroleum and other liquids markets 

are defined largely by the developing nations

History 2011 Projections

0

50

100

150

200

250

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Reference

High Oil Price

Low Oil Price

Figure 49. Brent crude oil spot prices in three cases, 

1990-2040 (2011 dollars per barrel)

In the AEO2013 Reference, High Oil Price, and Low Oil Price 

cases, total world consumption of petroleum and other liquids in 

2040 ranges from 111 to 118 million barrels per day (Figure 50). 

The alternative oil price cases reflect shifts in both supply and 

demand. Although demand at the margin in the Organization 

for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries 

is influenced primarily by price, demand in non-OECD regions, 

where future growth in world demand is concentrated, is driven 

primarily by rates of economic growth that are particularly 

uncertain. The AEO2013 Low Oil Price case reflects a scenario 

where slightly weaker economic growth limits non-OECD oil 

demand growth.

OECD petroleum and other liquids use grows in the Reference 

case to 47 million barrels per day in 2040, while non-OECD use 

grows to 65 million barrels per day. In the Low Oil Price case, 

OECD petroleum and other liquids use in 2040 is higher than in 

the Reference case, at 52 million barrels per day, but demand in 

the slow-growing non-OECD economies rises to only 59 million 

barrels per day. In the High Oil Price case, OECD consumption 

grows to 45 million barrels per day in 2040, and fast-growing 

non-OECD use—driven by higher GDP growth—increases to 

73 million barrels per day in 2040.

The supply response also varies across the price cases. In the 

Low Oil Price case, OPEC’s ability to manage its market share 

is weakened. Low prices have a negative impact on non-OPEC 

petroleum supply in comparison with the Reference case. In 

the High Oil Price case, OPEC restricts production, non-OPEC 

petroleum resources become more economical, and high oil 

prices make other liquids more economically attractive.

0

40

80

120

2011 Low Oil Price Reference High Oil Price

OECD

Non-OECD

2040

Figure 50. World petroleum and other liquids 

consumption by region in three cases, 2011 and 2040 

(million barrels per day)
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013 59

In 2011, world production of liquid fuels from biomass, coal, and 

natural gas totaled 2.1 million barrels per day, or about 2 percent of the energy supplied by all liquid fuels. In the AEO2013

Reference case, production from the three sources grows to 5.7 

million barrels per day in 2040 (Figure 51), or about 4 percent 

of the energy supplied by all liquid fuels.

In the Low Oil Price case, production of liquid fuels from these 

sources grows to 6.7 million barrels per day in 2040, as technology development is faster than projected in the Reference 

case, making the liquids easier to produce at lower cost, and 

demand for ethanol for use in existing blend ratios is higher. In 

the High Oil Price case, production grows to 9.1 million barrels 

per day in 2040, as higher prices stimulate greater investment 

in advanced liquid fuels technologies.

Across the three oil price cases, the largest contributions to production of advanced liquid fuels come from U.S. and Brazilian 

biofuels. In the Reference case, biofuel production totals 4.0 

million barrels per day in 2040, and production of gas-to-liquids 

(GTL) and coal-to-liquids (CTL) fuels accounts for 1.7 million 

barrels per day of additional production in 2040. Biofuels production in 2040 totals 5.5 million barrels per day in the Low Oil 

Price case and 5.9 million barrels per day in the High Oil Price 

case. The projections for CTL and GTL production are more 

sensitive to world oil prices, varying from 1.2 million barrels per 

day in the Low Oil Price case to 3.3 million barrels per day in 

the High Oil Price case in 2040. In the Reference case, the U.S. 

share of world GTL production in 2040 is 36 percent, as recent 

developments in domestic shale gas supply have contributed to 

optimism about the long-term outlook for U.S. GTL plants.

U.S. energy demand

Production of liquid fuels from biomass, coal, 

and natural gas increases

In the United States, average energy use 

per person declines from 2011 to 2040

0

2

4

6

8

10

2011 Low Oil Price Reference High Oil Price

Biofuels

CTL

GTL

2040

Figure 51. World production of liquids from biomass, 

coal, and natural gas in three cases, 2011 and 2040 

(million barrels per day)

Population growth affects energy use through increases in 

housing, commercial floorspace, transportation, and economic 

activity. The effects can be mitigated, however, as the structure and efficiency of the U.S. economy change. In the AEO2013

Reference case, U.S. population increases by 0.9 percent per 

year from 2011 to 2040; the economy, as measured by GDP, 

increases at an average annual rate of 2.5 percent; and total 

energy consumption increases by 0.3 percent per year. As a 

result, energy intensity, measured both as energy use per person and as energy use per dollar of GDP, declines through the 

projection period (Figure 52).

The decline in energy use per capita is brought about largely 

by gains in appliance efficiency and an increase in vehicle efficiency standards by 2025. From 1970 through 2008, energy use 

dipped below 320 million Btu per person for only a few years in 

the early 1980s. In 2011, energy use per capita was about 312 

million Btu. In the Reference case, it declines to less than 270 

million Btu per person in 2034—a level not seen since 1963.

After some recovery through 2020, the economy continues to 

shift away from manufacturing (particularly, energy-intensive 

industries such as iron and steel, aluminum, bulk chemicals, 

and refineries) toward service industries. The energy-intensive 

industries, which represented about 5.9 percent of total shipments in 2011, represent 4.4 percent in 2040 in the Reference 

case. Efficiency gains in the electric power sector also reduce 

overall energy intensity, as older, less efficient generators 

are retired as a result of slower growth in electricity demand, 

changing dispatch economics related to fuel prices and stricter 

environmental regulations.

Energy use per capita

History 2011 Projections

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Energy use per 2005 dollar of GDP

Figure 52. Energy use per capita and per dollar of 

gross domestic product, 1980-2040 (index, 1980 = 1)
60 U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013

The aggregate fossil fuel share of total energy use falls from 82 

percent in 2011 to 78 percent in 2040 in the Reference case, while 

renewable use grows rapidly (Figure 54). The renewable share of 

total energy use (including biofuels) grows from 9 percent in 2011 

to 13 percent in 2040 in response to the federal renewable fuels 

standard; availability of federal tax credits for renewable electricity generation and capacity during the early years of the projection; and state renewable portfolio standard (RPS) programs.

Natural gas consumption grows by about 0.6 percent per year 

from 2011 to 2040, led by the increased use of natural gas in 

electricity generation and, at least through 2020, the industrial sector. Growing production from tight shale keeps natural 

gas prices below their 2005-2008 levels through 2036. In the 

AEO2013 Reference case, the amount of liquid fuels made from 

natural gas (360 trillion Btu) is about three times the amount 

made from coal.

Increased vehicle fuel economy offsets growth in transportation activity, resulting in a decline in the petroleum and other 

liquids share of fuel use even as consumption of liquid biofuels 

increases. Biofuels, including biodiesel blended into diesel, E85, 

and ethanol blended into motor gasoline (up to 15 percent), 

account for 6 percent of all petroleum and other liquids consumption by energy content in 2040.

Coal consumption increases at an average rate of 0.1 percent per 

year from 2011 to 2040, remaining below 2011 levels until 2030. 

By the end of 2015, a total of 6.1 gigawatts of coal-fired power 

plant capacity currently under construction comes on line, and 

another 1.5 gigawatts is added after 2016 in the Reference case, 

including 0.9 gigawatts with carbon sequestration capability. 

Additional coal is consumed in the CTL process and to produce 

heat and power (including electricity generation at CTL plants).

U.S. energy demand

Industrial and commercial sectors lead 

U.S. growth in primary energy use

Renewables and natural gas lead rise in 

primary energy consumption

11%

2%

28%

9%

19%

32%

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Coal 20%

8%

Nuclear

Natural gas 26%

Petroleum and other liquids 36%

8%

1%

Liquid biofuels

Renewables

(excluding biofuels)

Share of total

U.S. energy use

History 2011 Projections

Figure 54. Primary energy use by fuel, 

1980-2040 (quadrillion Btu)

Total primary energy consumption, including fuels used for 

electricity generation, grows by 0.3 percent per year from 

2011 to 2040, to 107.6 quadrillion Btu in 2040 in the AEO2013

Reference case (Figure 53). The largest growth, 5.1 quadrillion 

Btu from 2011 to 2040, is in the industrial sector, attributable to 

increased use of natural gas in some industries (bulk chemicals, 

for example) as a result of an extended period of relatively low 

prices coinciding with rising shipments in those industries. The 

industrial sector was more severely affected than the other 

end-use sectors by the 2007-2009 economic downturn; the 

increase in industrial energy consumption from 2008 through 

2040 is 3.9 quadrillion Btu.

The second-largest increase in total primary energy use, at 

3.1 quadrillion Btu from 2011 to 2040, is in the commercial 

sector, which currently accounts for the smallest share of enduse energy demand. Even as standards for building shells and 

energy efficiency are being tightened in the commercial sector, 

the growth rate for commercial energy use, at 0.5 percent per 

year, is the highest among the end-use sectors, propelled by 

1.0-percent average annual growth in commercial floorspace.

Primary energy use in the residential sector grows by 0.2 

percent per year, or about 1.6 quadrillion Btu from 2011 to 

2040, but it does not increase above the 2011 level until 2029. 

Increased efficiency reduces energy use for space heating, 

lighting, and clothes washers.

In the transportation sector, light-duty vehicle (LDV) energy 

consumption declines as a result of the impact of fuel economy 

standards through 2025. Total transportation sector energy 

use is essentially flat from 2011 through 2040, increasing by 

about 140 trillion Btu.

Transportation

Industrial

Commercial

Residential

0

25

50

75

100

125

2011 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Figure 53. Primary energy use by end-use sector, 

2011-2040 (quadrillion Btu)
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013 61

Average electricity demand per household declines by 6 percent in the Reference case, from 12.3 megawatthours in 2011 

to 11.5 megawatthours in 2040. As the number of households 

grows, however, total delivered electricity consumption in the 

residential sector increases by about 24 percent. Over the 

same period, residential use of natural gas falls by 12 percent, 

and use of petroleum and other liquids falls by 25 percent. Total 

energy demand for most electric end uses increases, even as it 

declines on a per-household basis. In 2040, space cooling and 

“other uses” consume 42 percent and 52 percent more electricity, respectively, than in 2011 and remain the largest residential 

uses of electricity. Electricity use for personal computers (PCs) 

and related equipment and for clothes washers declines.

The largest reduction in residential electricity use is for lighting (Figure 56). The Energy Independence and Security Act of 

2007 (EISA2007) phases in standards that require a reduction 

of about 30 percent in energy use for general-service lamps 

between 2012 and 2014, with specific dates that vary by light 

level. On January 1, 2013, the requirements went into effect 

for 75-watt incandescent bulbs; the requirements for 100-

watt incandescent bulbs went into effect a year earlier. The 

EISA2007 standards result in the replacement of incandescent bulbs with more efficient compact fluorescent lighting and 

light-emitting diode (LED) lamps.

Among electric end-use services in the residential sector, 

lighting demand declines at the fastest rate (1.8 percent per 

year) and “other uses” rise at the fastest rate (1.4 percent per 

year). The growth in other uses stems from the introduction 

of new electrical devices in households, with little coverage 

by efficiency standards. Electricity use for water heating also 

increases, but at a slower rate (0.7 percent per year) than the 

growth in number of households (1.0 percent per year).

Residential sector energy demand

Residential energy intensity continues to decline 

across a range of technology assumptions

Electricity use per household declines from 

2011 to 2040 in the Reference case

In the AEO2013 Reference case, the energy intensity of residential demand, defined as annual energy use per household, 

declines from 97.2 million Btu in 2011 to 75.5 million Btu in 

2040 (Figure 55). The projected 22-percent decrease in intensity occurs along with a 32-percent increase in the number of 

homes. Residential energy intensity is affected by various factors—for example, population shifts to warmer and drier climates, improvements in the efficiency of building construction 

and equipment stock, and the attitudes and behavior of residents toward energy savings.

Three alternative cases show the effects of different technology assumptions on residential energy intensity. The 2012 

Demand Technology case assumes no future improvement 

in efficiency for equipment or building shells beyond what is 

available in 2012. The High Demand Technology case assumes 

higher efficiency, earlier availability, lower cost, and more frequent energy-efficient purchases for some equipment. The 

Best Available Demand Technology case limits customer purchases of new and replacement equipment to the most efficient 

models available at the time of purchase—regardless of cost. 

This case also assumes that new homes are constructed to the 

most energy-efficient specifications.

From 2011 to 2040, household energy intensity declines by 31 

percent in the High Demand Technology case and by 42 percent in the Best Available Demand Technology case. In the 

2012 Demand Technology case, energy intensity is slightly 

higher than in the Reference case but still declines by 17 percent 

from 2011 to 2040 as a result of the replacement of pre-2012 

appliance stocks with 2012 vintage equipment.

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

2011 Projections

2012 Demand Technology

Reference

High Demand Technology

Best Available Demand Technology

Figure 55. Residential delivered energy intensity in 

four cases, 2005-2040 (index, 2005 = 1)

-1,000 -500 0 500 1,000

Other

Heating,	cooling,	

and ventilation

TVs and set-top boxes

Refrigeration	and	cooking

Water heating

Laundry and dishwashing

PCs and related equipment

Lighting

Figure 56. Change in residential electricity 

consumption for selected end uses in the Reference 

case, 2011-2040 (kilowatthours per household)
62 U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013

Consistent with current law, existing investment tax credits 

(ITCs) for residential households installing renewable energy 

technologies expire at the end of 2016 in the AEO2013 Reference 

case. The credits can offset 30 percent of installed costs for a 

variety of technologies, including solar photovoltaic (PV) and 

wind generators, ground-source heat pumps, and solar thermal water heaters. In the Reference case, expiration of the ITCs 

drastically slows adoption of renewable technologies. In the 

AEO2013 No Sunset case, the ITCs are extended through 2040, 

and the adoption of renewable technologies continues to rise 

(Figure 58).

In the Reference case, combined PV and wind capacity in the 

residential sector grows from 1.1 gigawatts in 2011 to 9.5 gigawatts in 2016. After 2016, expiration of the ITCs results in 

slower growth, with an additional 4.1 gigawatts added from 

2017 through 2040. In the No Sunset case, more than 58 gigawatts of residential PV and wind capacity is added over the 

same period. In all cases, the majority of the added capacity is 

solar PV rather than wind.

Expiration of the ITCs also affects the penetration of renewable space-conditioning and water-heating equipment. With a 

30-percent tax credit available, the number of ground-source 

heat pumps and solar water heaters grows from a combined 1.3 

million units in 2011 to 2.4 million units in 2016; but after 2016 

only 1.4 million additional units are added through 2040 in the 

Reference case. Even in the more optimistic No Sunset case, 

however, the two renewable technologies are adopted in only 

a small percentage of households—fewer than 6 percent—by 

2040. In the No Sunset case, with the ITC extended, 6.4 million 

additional units are installed after 2016.

Residential sector energy demand

Efficiency can offset increases in residential 

service demand

Planned expiration of tax credits affects 

renewable energy use in the residential sector

The number of households increases by 32 percent, and total residential square footage increases by 41 percent from 2011 to 2040 

in the AEO2013 Reference case. Without efficiency improvements, energy demand for uses such as heating, cooling, and lighting would increase at similar rates; however, for many end uses, 

delivered energy consumption increases more slowly or, in some 

instances, declines in the Reference case. Three alternative cases 

show how efficiency improvements could affect energy consumption levels (Figure 57). The High Demand Technology and 

Best Available Demand Technology cases assume different levels 

of efficiency improvement without anticipating new appliance 

standards. The Extended Policies case assumes the enactment of 

new rounds of standards, generally based on improvements seen 

in current ENERGY STAR equipment.

Energy consumption declines in the Reference case for two 

major end uses, space heating and water heating. Energy use for 

space cooling in the Reference case grows by 42 percent from 

2011 to 2040—faster than the number of households, reflecting both population shifts and changes in the number of degree 

days. In the Best Available Demand Technology case, which 

includes greater adoption of efficient space cooling equipment, 

energy use for space cooling declines over the same period.

In all four cases, substantial declines in energy use for lighting 

reflect EISA2007 efficiency standards. For the category of miscellaneous loads—a wide range of small appliances and electronics, most of which are not currently subject to efficiency 

standards—delivered energy use increases at the same rate 

as the number of households in the Extended Policies case (32 

percent from 2011 to 2040) and more rapidly than the number 

of households in the Reference, High Demand Technology, and 

Best Available Demand Technology cases because of more limited efficiency improvement.

-60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60

Refrigeration

Miscellaneous loads

Lighting

Space cooling

Water heating

Space heating Extended Policies

Reference

Best Available Demand Technology

High Demand Technology

Figure 57. Change in residential delivered energy 

consumption for selected end uses in four cases, 

2011-2040 (percent)

0

25

50

75

Reference

No Sunset

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

0

5

10

Ground-source heat pumps and solar water heaters 

(million units)

Reference

2011 No Sunset

Solar photovoltaic and wind (gigawatts)

Figure 58. Residential sector adoption of renewable 

energy technologies in two cases, 2005-2040
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013 63

Commercial energy intensity, defined as the ratio of energy consumption to floorspace, decreases for most electric end uses 

from 2011 to 2040 in the AEO2013 Reference case (Figure 60). In 

2011, electricity accounted for 52.4 percent of total commercial 

delivered energy use. Through the projection period, electricity 

use for lighting declines as a portion of total energy consumption in the Reference case. Advances in solid-state lighting technologies yield lamps with higher efficacy and lower cost, as well 

as products that can replace, or be retrofitted into, a wide variety of fixture types. As a result, the share of purchased electricity consumption used for lighting declines from 20.8 percent in 

2011 to 15.1 percent in 2040 in the Reference case.

Commercial floorspace grows by an average of 1.0 percent per 

year from 2011 to 2040. Federal efficiency standards, which 

help to foster technological improvements in end uses such 

as space heating and cooling, water heating, refrigeration, and 

lighting, act to limit growth in energy consumption to less than 

the growth in commercial floorspace. Increasing energy use for 

miscellaneous electric loads, many of which currently are not 

subject to federal standards, leads to a 33.9-percent increase in 

energy intensity from 2011 to 2040 for “other” end uses in the 

Reference case. Miscellaneous electric loads in the commercial 

sector include medical equipment and video displays, among 

many other devices.

Although the recent recession slowed the rate of installation 

of new data centers, growing demand for web-based services 

continues to drive growth in energy use for non-PC office equipment, which increases by an average of 1.1 percent per year 

from 2011 to 2040. Improvements in data center cooling and 

ventilation equipment, as well as increased server efficiency, 

continue to moderate the increase.

Commercial sector energy demand

For commercial buildings, pace of decline 

in energy intensity depends on technology

Greatest reduction in energy intensity 

is in commercial lighting

Average delivered energy consumption per square foot of commercial floorspace declines at an annual rate of 0.4 percent 

from 2011 to 2040 in the AEO2013 Reference case (Figure 59), 

while commercial floorspace grows by 1.0 percent per year. 

Natural gas consumption increases at about one-half the rate 

of delivered electricity consumption, which grows by 0.8 percent per year in the Reference case. With ongoing improvements in equipment efficiency and building shells, the growth 

of energy consumption declines more rapidly than commercial 

floorspace increases, and the average energy intensity of commercial buildings is reduced.

Three alternative technology cases show the effects of efficiency improvements on commercial energy consumption. The 

2012 Demand Technology case limits equipment and building 

shell efficiencies in later years to those available in 2012. The 

High Demand Technology case assumes earlier availability, 

lower costs, and higher efficiencies for equipment and building 

shells, and a 7-percent real discount rate for energy efficiency 

investments. The Best Available Demand Technology case 

assumes more efficient building shells for new and existing 

buildings than in the High Demand Technology case and limits replacement of new equipment to the most efficient models 

available in any given year.

The intensity of commercial energy use in the Reference case 

declines by 10.8 percent, from 105.2 thousand Btu per square 

foot in 2011 to 93.8 thousand Btu per square foot in 2040. By 

comparison, average commercial energy intensity drops by 

about 8.6 percent in the 2012 Demand Technology case, to 

96.1 thousand Btu per square foot in 2040, by 20.5 percent in 

the High Demand Technology, and by 23.9 percent in the Best 

Available Demand Technology case.

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

2011 Projections

2012 Demand Technology

High Demand Technology

Best Available Demand Technology

Reference

Figure 59. Commercial delivered energy intensity in 

four cases, 2005-2040 (index, 2005 = 1)

0 5 10 15 20 25

Cooking

Water heating

Office equipment:

PCs

Office equipment:

non-PC

Refrigeration

Lighting

Heating,	cooling,

and ventilation

Miscellaneous 2011

2040

Figure 60. Energy intensity of selected commercial 

electric end uses, 2011 and 2040 (thousand Btu per 

square foot)
64 U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013

PV and wind account for 58.7 percent of commercial distributed generation capacity in 2040 in the AEO2013 Reference 

case. Exponential growth of PV capacity has occurred in both 

new and existing construction during recent years as a result 

of utility incentives, new financing options, and the 30-percent 

federal ITC that reverts to 10 percent in 2017. In the Reference 

case, commercial PV capacity increases by 6.5 percent annually 

from 2011 to 2040. In the No Sunset case, with ITCs for all distributed generation technologies extended through 2040, PV 

capacity increases by an average of 7.4 percent per year.

Small-scale wind capacity increases by 7.4 percent per year 

from 2011 to 2040 in the Reference case and by an even greater 

12.6 percent per year from 2011 to 2040 in the No Sunset case 

(Figure 62). As with PV, additional federal and local incentives 

help to drive growth in commercial wind capacity. Wind capacity accounts for 10.7 percent of the 28.4 gigawatts of total distributed generation capacity in 2040 in the No Sunset case, and 

PV accounts for 55.2 percent.

Rising fuel prices offset the effects of the 10-percent ITC on 

nonrenewable technologies for distributed generation. In the 

Reference case, microturbine capacity using natural gas grows 

by 15.0 percent per year on average, from 83.3 megawatts in 

2011 to 4.7 gigawatts in 2040; and the growth rate in the No 

Sunset case is only slightly higher, at 15.3 percent. The microturbine share of total DG capacity in 2040 is 18.0 percent 

in the No Sunset case, as compared with 21.6 percent in the 

Reference case, and fuel cell capacity grows at an annual rate 

of roughly 10.9 percent in the Reference case and 11.3 percent 

in the No Sunset case.

Commercial sector energy demand

Efficiency gains for advanced technologies 

reduce commercial energy consumption growth

Renewable energy fuels most additions to 

commercial distributed generation capacity

In the AEO2013 Reference case, delivered energy use for core 

commercial end uses (space heating, space cooling, ventilation, water heating, lighting, cooking, and refrigeration) falls 

by an average of 0.1 percent per year from 2011 to 2040, even 

as commercial floorspace increases by 1 percent annually. The 

share of commercial delivered energy consumption accounted 

for by the core end uses, which have been the focus of a number 

of energy efficiency standards, falls from 60 percent in 2011 to 

50 percent in 2040. Energy consumption for the remaining end 

uses grows by 1.4 percent per year, led by other uses of electricity and by non-PC office equipment, including servers.

The largest efficiency gains in the Reference case are expected 

for lighting as a result of updated cost projections for advanced 

LED technologies, especially after 2030. Significant gains also 

are projected for refrigeration, based on provisions in the Energy 

Policy Act of 2005 and EISA2007, space cooling, electric space 

heating, and electric water heating (Figure 61).

The Best Available Demand Technology case demonstrates significant potential for further improvements—especially in electric equipment. In this case, the core end uses account for only 

43 percent of total delivered energy use in 2040, when their 

total delivered energy use is more than 1 quadrillion Btu lower 

than projected in the Reference case. More than 30 percent of 

the reduction in demand is attributed to lighting, followed by 

ventilation and space heating. Additional efficiency gains for 

commercial lighting arise from earlier and more widespread 

penetration of LED technologies. Other notable contributions 

result from high-efficiency versions of variable air volume ventilation systems and chillers for space cooling. Overall, delivered 

energy consumption in 2040 in the Best Available Demand 

Technology case is only 0.1 quadrillion Btu higher than in 2011, 

despite a 33-percent increase in commercial floorspace.

0 50 100 150 200 250

Natural gas water heating

Natural gas space heating

Electric space heating

Electric space cooling

Refrigeration

Electric water heating

Ventilation

Lighting

Reference

2012 Demand Technology

Best Available

Demand Technology

Figure 61. Efficiency gains for selected commercial 

equipment in three cases, 2040 (percent change from 

2011 installed stock efficiency)

0 5 10 15

Fuel	cells

Microturbines

Wind

Solar photovoltaics

Conventional

natural gas-fired

combined heat

and power

No Sunset

Reference

Figure 62. Additions to electricity generation capacity 

in the commercial sector in two cases, 

2011-2040 (gigawatts)
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013 65

Much of the growth in industrial energy consumption in the 

AEO2013 Reference case is accounted for by natural gas use, 

which increases by 18 percent from 2011 and 2025 and by 6 

percent from 2025 to 2040 (Figure 64). With domestic natural 

gas production increasing sharply in the projection, natural gas 

prices remain relatively low. The mix of industrial fuels changes 

relatively slowly, however, reflecting limited capability for fuel 

switching in most industries.

Consumption of renewable fuels in the industrial sector grows 

by 22 percent from 2011 to 2025 in the Reference case and by 

37 percent from 2025 to 2040. The paper industry remains the 

predominant consumer of renewable energy (mostly biomass) 

in the industrial sector. Industrial consumption of natural gas liquids (NGL) increases by 21 percent from 2011 to 2025, followed 

by a 9-percent decline from 2025 to 2040. NGL are consumed 

predominantly as feedstocks in the bulk chemicals industry and 

for process heat in other industries. NGL use declines starting 

in 2025 as shipments of bulk chemicals begin to decline in the 

face of increased international competition. Industrial coal use 

drops by less than 1 percent from 2011 to 2040, and the use of 

petroleum and other liquid fuels increases by 6 percent.

Low natural gas prices and increased availability of biomass 

contribute to growth in the use of combined heat and power 

(CHP). A small decline in the purchased electricity share of 

industrial energy consumption (less than 1 percent from 2011 

to 2040) reflects growth in CHP, as well as efficiency improvements resulting from rising standards for electric motors.

Despite a 76-percent increase in industrial shipments, industrial delivered energy consumption increases by only 19 percent from 2011 to 2040 in the AEO2013 Reference case. The 

continued decline in energy intensity of the industrial sector 

is explained in part by a shift in the share of shipments from 

energy-intensive manufacturing industries (bulk chemicals, 

petroleum refineries, paper products, iron and steel, food products, aluminum, cement and lime, and glass) to other, less 

energy-intensive industries, such as plastics, computers, and 

transportation equipment. Also, the decline in energy intensity 

for the less energy-intensive industries is almost twice that for 

the more energy-intensive industries.

Industrial energy consumption increases by 4.7 quadrillion Btu 

from 2011 to 2040 in the Reference case (Figure 63), or by an 

average of 0.6 percent per year. Most of the growth occurs in the 

near term, from 2011 to 2025, with an average yearly increase 

of 1 percent. After 2025, the annualized rate of increase is 0.3 

percent. The share of industrial delivered energy consumption 

used for heat and power in manufacturing increases modestly, 

from 63 percent in 2011 to 67 percent in 2040.

Energy consumption for heat and power in the nonmanufacturing industries (agriculture, mining, and construction) increases 

by about 1.1 quadrillion Btu from 2011 to 2040 in the Reference 

case, but its percentage of total industrial energy consumption 

remains at about 16 percent. Nonfuel uses of energy (feedstocks for chemical manufacturing and asphalt for construction) increase by 1.6 percent per year from 2011 to 2025 and 

decrease by 0.3 percent per year after 2025. The nonfuel share 

of energy consumption is between 18 and 20 percent over the 

projection period.

Industrial sector energy demand

Growth in industrial energy consumption is 

slower than growth in shipments

Reliance on natural gas, natural gas liquids, and 

renewables rises as industrial energy use grows

0

5

10

15

20

2011 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Manufacturing heat and power

Nonmanufacturing heat and power

Nonfuel uses

Figure 63. Industrial delivered energy consumption 

by application, 2011-2040 (quadrillion Btu)

0

5

10

15

2011 2025 2040

Natural gas

Petroleum and other liquids

Electricity

Coal

Renewables

Natural gas liquids

Figure 64. Industrial energy consumption by fuel, 

2011, 2025, and 2040 (quadrillion Btu)
66 U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013

Industrial sector energy demand

Iron and steel, cement, and glass industries 

are most sensitive to the economic growth rate

Energy use reflects output and efficiency 

trends in energy-intensive industries

Total shipments from the energy-intensive industries grow by 

an average of 1.0 percent per year from 2011 to 2040 in the 

AEO2013 Reference case, as compared with 0.6 percent in 

the Low Economic Growth case and 1.4 percent in the High 

Economic Growth case. Growth in shipments is uneven among 

the industrial subsectors.

The iron and steel, cement, and glass industries show the 

greatest variability in shipments across the three cases, 

because they supply downstream industries that are sensitive 

to investment, which is more variable than GDP. Construction is 

a downstream user of the output for all three industries, and the 

metal-based durables sector is a downstream industry for the 

iron and steel and glass industries. The high rate of shipments 

growth for those industries is related largely to recovery from 

the recent recession. Shipments of paper products grow 

steadily in each of the three cases (Figure 65).

The food, bulk chemicals, and aluminum industries show less 

variability among the three cases. Food shipments, which 

tend to grow in proportion to population, are less sensitive 

to investment. The bulk chemicals and aluminum industries 

face significant international competition, but they experience 

significant growth, largely related to relatively inexpensive 

natural gas and associated declines in electricity costs for 

aluminum manufacturers. Shipments from the petroleum 

refineries industry either decline or grow relatively slowly in 

each of the three cases as a result of slow growth in demand for 

petroleum-based fuels.

-50 0 50 100 150 200

High Economic Growth

Low Economic Growth

Reference

Liquids refineries

Aluminum

Iron and steel

Bulk	chemicals

Glass

Paper products

Food	products

Cement and lime

Figure 65. Cumulative growth in value of shipments 

from energy-intensive industries in three cases, 

2011-2040 (percent)

Energy consumption growth in the energy-intensive industries 

from 2011 to 2040 ranges from no significant change in the Low 

Economic Growth case to an increase of 3.9 quadrillion Btu in 

the High Economic Growth case (Figure 66). Energy efficiency 

improvements reduce the rate of growth in energy consumption 

relative to shipments. In the AEO2013 Reference case, energy 

use in the energy-intensive industries increases by 13 percent, 

while shipments increase by 33 percent. In the Low Economic 

Growth case, energy use in the energy-intensive industries 

declines by 2 percent while shipments increase by 17 percent. 

In the High Economic Growth case, energy use grows by 27 percent and shipments by 48 percent.

Shipments from all industries grow in the Reference case, but 

the impact on energy consumption varies by industry because 

of structural changes and differences in the rate of energy efficiency improvement by industry. For example, shipments from 

the aluminum industry and the iron and steel industry increase 

in the projection, even as energy use declines. For the aluminum industry, shipments grow by 17 percent while energy use 

declines by 16 percent because of a rise in less energy-intensive 

secondary production. For the iron and steel industry, shipments 

grow by 18 percent while energy use declines by 10 percent 

because of a shift from the use of blast furnace steel production 

to the use of recycled products and electric arc furnaces.

Refining is the only industry subsector that shows an increase 

in energy intensity. Shipments from refineries fluctuate in the 

early years and then decline slightly after 2019, with a 4-percent decline in shipments overall from 2011 to 2040. In contrast, 

energy use for refining increases by 13 percent over the same 

period, as CTL production and the use of heavy crude feedstock, 

both of which are more energy-intensive to process than typical 

crude oil, increase after 2022.

-500 -250 0 250 500 750 1,000 1,250

Cement and lime

Aluminum

Glass

Liquids refineries

Iron and steel

Bulk	chemicals

Paper products

Food	products High Economic Growth

Low Economic Growth

Reference

Figure 66. Change in delivered energy consumption 

for energy-intensive industries in three cases, 

2011-2040 (trillion Btu)
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013 67

In 2040, the non-energy-intensive manufacturing and nonmanufacturing industrial subsectors account for $8.5 trillion 

(2005 dollars) in shipments in the AEO2013 Reference case—a 

92-percent increase from 2011. The growth in those shipments 

from 2011 to 2040 averages 1.6 percent per year in the Low 

Economic Growth case and 3.0 percent per year in the High 

Economic Growth case, compared with 2.3 percent in the 

Reference case (Figure 68). Non-energy-intensive manufacturing and nonmanufacturing are segments of the industrial sector 

that consume fuels primarily for thermal or electrical needs, not 

as raw materials or feedstocks.

In the three cases, the annual rate of increase in shipments 

from non-energy-intensive industries generally is twice the 

rate of increase for the energy-intensive industries, primarily as a result of growing demand for high-technology, highvalue goods. Further, the growth in shipments is fastest in the 

medium term. From 2011 to 2025, shipments of metal-based 

durables grow by an average of 3.2 percent per year; from 2025 

to 2040, the growth rate slows to 2.1 percent per year.

In the Reference case, shipments from the non-energy-intensive industries grow at different rates. For metal-based durables, shipments grow by 2.6 percent per year from 2011 to 

2040, led by 3.0-percent average annual growth for transportation equipment. In the nonmanufacturing sector, construction grows by an average of 2.6 percent per year, agriculture 

grows by 1.0 percent per year, and mining grows by 0.2 percent 

per year.

Most of the growth in shipments from energy-intensive industries from 2011 to 2040 occurs before 2025 in the Reference 

case (Figure 67). The strong growth in the earlier period can 

be explained largely by low natural gas prices that result from 

increased domestic production of natural gas from tight formations, as well as continued economic recovery. After 2025 the 

growth in shipments is weaker, with declines in some industries 

as a result of growing international competition and rising natural gas prices.

In the bulk chemical industry, shipments grow by 27 percent 

from 2011 to 2025, then decline by 8 percent from 2025 to 

2040. Aluminum shipments and iron and steel shipments both 

grow by about 50 percent more than shipments of bulk chemicals from 2011 to 2025. The decline in aluminum and iron and 

steel shipments after 2025, just over 20 percent, is also greater 

than the decline in bulk chemicals shipments. In addition to 

growing international competition, the growth in industries 

downstream from the primary metals sector, such as construction and transportation equipment, weakens after 2025.

The cement and lime and glass industries show continued 

growth over the period from 2025 to 2040, but at relatively 

low levels. Cement and lime and glass have high shipping costs, 

which give domestic suppliers an advantage over imports and 

help to maintain the sector’s growth after 2025. Shipments 

from the refinery industry show modest declines in both the 

2011-2025 and 2025-2040 periods, as demand for transportation fuels is moderated by increasing vehicle efficiencies. The 

food and paper products industries show the least variation in 

shipment growth over the projection period, with growth rates 

declining modestly after 2025.

Industrial sector energy demand

Most of the growth in shipments from energyintensive industries occurs before 2025Metal-based durable goods show the fastest 

growth among non-energy-intensive industries

Nonmanufacturing

Other manufacturing

Fabricated	metal	products

Transportation equipment

Mining

Agriculture

Electrical equipment and appliances

Computer and electronic products

Machinery

0 50 100 150 200 250

Construction

Other manufacturing

Metal-based durables manufacturing

High Economic Growth

Low Economic Growth

Reference

Figure 68. Cumulative growth in value of shipments 

from non-energy-intensive industries in three cases, 

2011-2040 (percent)

-50 0 50 100 150

Liquids refineries

Aluminum

Iron and steel

Bulk	chemicals

Glass

Paper products

Food	products

Cement and lime

2025-2040

2011-2040

2011-2025

Figure 67. Cumulative growth in value of 

shipments from energy-intensive industries, 

2011-2040, 2011-2025, and 2025-2040 (percent)
68 U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013

The transportation sector consumes 27.1 quadrillion Btu of 

energy in 2040, the same as the level of energy demand in 

2011 (Figure 70). The projection of no growth in transportation energy demand differs markedly from the historical trend, 

which saw 1.1-percent average annual growth from 1975 to 

2011 [126]. No growth in transportation energy demand is the 

result of declining energy use for LDVs, which offsets increased 

energy use for heavy-duty vehicles (HDVs), aircraft, marine, 

rail, and pipelines.

Energy demand for LDVs declines from 16.1 quadrillion Btu in 

2011 to 13.0 quadrillion Btu in 2040, in contrast to 0.9-percent 

average annual growth from 1975 to 2011. Higher fuel economy 

for LDVs more than offsets modest growth in vehicle miles traveled (VMT) per driver.

Energy demand for HDVs (including tractor trailers, buses, vocational vehicles, and heavy-duty pickups and vans) increases the 

fastest among transportation modes, from 5.2 quadrillion Btu in 

2011 to 7.6 quadrillion Btu in 2040, as a result of increased travel 

as economic output grows. The increase in energy demand for 

HDVs is tempered by standards for HDV fuel efficiency and 

greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions starting in 2014.

Energy demand for aircraft increases from 2.5 quadrillion Btu 

in 2011 to 2.9 quadrillion Btu in 2040. Increases in personal 

air travel are offset by gains in aircraft fuel efficiency, while air 

freight movement grows with higher exports. Energy consumption for marine and rail travel increases as industrial output 

rises, and pipeline energy use rises moderately as increasing 

volumes of natural gas are produced closer to end-use markets.

Transportation sector energy demand

Nonmanufacturing efficiency gains are slowed 

by rising energy intensity in the mining industry

Growth in transportation energy 

consumption flat across projection

0 10 20 30

Total

Rail

Pipeline

Marine

Air

Heavy-duty vehicles

Light-duty vehicles

2040

2011

Figure 70. Delivered energy consumption for 

transportation by mode, 2011 and 2040 

(quadrillion Btu)

From 2011 to 2040, total energy consumption in the nonenergy-intensive manufacturing and nonmanufacturing industrial subsectors increases by 18 percent (1.4 quadrillion Btu) in 

the Low Economic Growth case, 36 percent (2.8 quadrillion Btu) 

in the Reference case, and 58 percent (4.6 quadrillion Btu) in 

the High Economic Growth case (Figure 69).

The nonmanufacturing subsector (construction, agriculture, 

and mining) accounts for roughly 57 percent of the energy 

consumed in the non-energy-intensive industries but only 31 

percent of the total shipments in 2040. The nonmanufacturing 

industries are more energy-intensive than the manufacturing 

industries, and there is no significant decline in energy intensity 

for the nonmanufacturing industries over the projection period. 

Construction and agriculture show annual declines in energy 

intensity from 2011 to 2040 (1.0 percent and 0.9 percent per 

year, respectively), whereas the energy intensity of the mining industry increased by 0.7 percent from 2011 to 2040 in the 

AEO2013 Reference case. Within the nonmanufacturing sector, 

the mining industry accounts for 17.3 percent of shipments in 

2040 and roughly 43.2 percent of the energy consumed, as 

the energy intensity of mining activity increases with resource 

depletion over time.

In comparison, the non-energy-intensive manufacturing industries—such as plastics, computers, and transportation equipment—show a 33-percent decline in energy intensity from 2011 

to 2040, or an average decline of about 1.4 percent per year. 

For the transportation equipment industry, which accounts for 

19 percent of the increase in energy use but roughly 29 percent 

of the increase in shipments, energy intensity declines by 1.5 

percent per year on average in the Reference case.

Mining

Construction

Agriculture

Other manufacturing

Fabricated	metal	products

Transportation equipment

Electrical equipment and appliances

Computer and electronic products

Machinery

-400 0 400 800 1,200 1,600

Other manufacturing 

Metal-based durables manufacturing

Nonmanufacturing

Low Economic Growth

Reference

High Economic Growth

Figure 69. Change in delivered energy consumption 

for non-energy-intensive industries in three cases, 

2011-2040 (trillion Btu)
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013 69

Personal vehicle travel demand, measured as annual VMT per 

licensed driver, grew at an average annual rate of 1 percent from 

1970 to 2007, from about 8,700 miles per driver in 1970 to 

12,800 miles in 2007. Since peaking in 2007, travel per licensed 

driver has declined because of rapidly increasing fuel prices and 

the economic recession.

Demographic changes moderate projected growth in VMT 

per licensed driver, which grows by an average of 0.3 percent 

per year, remaining below the 2007 level until 2029 and then 

growing to 13,300 miles in 2040 (Figure 72). Although vehicle 

sales rise through 2040, the number of vehicles per licensed 

driver declines from the all-time peak of 1.12 in 2007 to 1.01 

in 2040. Further, unemployment remains above prerecession 

levels until around 2020, tempering the growth in demand for 

personal travel.

From 2011 to 2040, the price of motor gasoline increases by 26 

percent (on a Btu basis), while real disposable personal income 

grows by 95 percent. Faster growth in income than fuel price 

lowers the percentage of income spent on fuel, boosting travel 

demand. In addition, the increase in fuel costs is more than offset by a 50-percent improvement in new vehicle fuel economy. 

Implementation of the new GHG and CAFE standards for LDVs 

lowers the cost of driving per mile and leads to growth in personal travel demand. Personal vehicle travel demand could 

vary, however, depending on several uncertainties, including the impact of changing demographics on travel behavior, 

the intensity of mass transit use, and other factors discussed 

above, such as fuel prices. The implications of a possible longterm decline in VMT per licensed driver are considered in the 

“Issues in focus” section of this report (see “Petroleum import 

dependence in a range of cases”).

The 1978 introduction of corporate average fuel economy 

(CAFE) standards for LDVs increased their average fuel economy from 19.9 mpg in 1978 to 26.2 mpg in 1987. Despite technological improvement, fuel economy fell to between 24 and 27 

mpg over the next two decades, as sales of light trucks increased 

from 18 percent of new LDV sales in 1980 to 55 percent in 2004 

[127]. The subsequent rise in fuel prices, reduction in sales of 

light trucks, and more stringent CAFE standards for light-duty 

trucks starting in model year (MY) 2008 and for passenger cars 

in MY 2011, resulted in a rise in estimated LDV fuel economy to 

29.0 mpg in 2011 [128].

The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) 

and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency have jointly 

announced new GHG emissions and CAFE standards for 

MY 2012 through MY 2025 [129, 130], which are included in 

AEO2013. As a result, the fuel economy of new LDVs, measured 

in terms of their compliance values in CAFE testing [131], rises 

from 32.5 mpg in 2012 to 47.3 mpg in 2025 (Figure 71). The 

GHG emissions and CAFE standards are held roughly constant 

after 2025, but fuel economy continues to rise, to 49.0 mpg in 

2040, as new fuel-saving technologies are adopted. In 2040, 

passenger car fuel economy averages 56.1 mpg and light-duty 

truck fuel economy averages 40.5 mpg.

Transportation sector energy demand

CAFE and greenhouse gas emissions standards 

boost light-duty vehicle fuel economy

Travel demand for personal vehicles continues 

to grow, but more slowly than in the past

0

10

20

30

40

50

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

History 2011 Projections

Figure 71. Average fuel economy of new light-duty 

vehicles, 1980-2040 (miles per gallon, 

CAFE compliance values)

0

5

10

15

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

History 2011 Projections

Figure 72. Vehicle miles traveled per licensed driver, 

1970-2040 (thousand miles)
70 U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013

Natural gas, as compressed natural gas (CNG) and liquefied 

natural gas (LNG), is the fastest-growing fuel in the transportation sector, with an average annual growth rate of 11.9 percent 

from 2011 to 2040 (Figure 74). HDVs—which include tractor 

trailers, vocational vehicles, buses, and heavy-duty pickups 

and vans with a gross vehicle weight rating (GVWR) of 10,001 

pounds or more—lead the growth in natural gas demand 

throughout the projection period. Natural gas fuel consumption by HDVs increases from almost zero in 2011 to more than 

1 quadrillion Btu in 2040, at an average annual growth rate of 

14.6 percent.

Although HDVs fueled by natural gas have significant incremental costs in comparison with their diesel-powered counterparts, the increase in natural gas consumption for HDVs is 

spurred by low prices of natural gas compared with diesel fuel, 

as well as purchases of natural gas vehicles for relatively highVMT applications, such as tractor trailers.

The total number of miles traveled annually by HDVs grows by 

82 percent in the Reference case, from 240 billion miles in 2011 

to 438 billion miles in 2040, for an average annual increase of 

2.1 percent. HDVs, those with a GVWR greater than 26,000 

pounds (primarily tractor trailers), account for about threefourths of truck VMT and 91 percent of natural gas consumption by all HDVs in 2040. The rise in VMT is supported by rising 

economic output over the projection period and an increase in 

the number of trucks on the road, from 9.0 million in 2011 to 

13.7 million in 2040.

Transportation sector energy demand

Sales of alternative fuel, fuel flexible, 

and hybrid vehicles sales rise

Heavy-duty vehicles dominate natural gas 

consumption in the transportation sector

LDVs that use diesel, other alternative fuels, hybrid-electric, or 

all-electric systems play a significant role in meeting more stringent GHG emissions and CAFE standards over the projection 

period. Sales of such vehicles increase from 20 percent of all 

new LDV sales in 2011 to 49 percent in 2040 in the AEO2013

Reference case.

Micro hybrid vehicles, defined here as conventional gasoline 

vehicles with micro hybrid systems that manage engine operation at idle, represent 28 percent of new LDV sales in 2040, 

the largest share among vehicles using diesel, alternative fuels, 

hybrid-electric, or all-electric systems.

Flex-fuel vehicles (FFVs), which can use blends of ethanol up 

to 85 percent, represent the second largest share of these vehicle types in 2040, at 7 percent of all new LDV sales. Current 

incentives for manufacturers selling FFVs, which are available in 

the form of fuel economy credits earned for CAFE compliance, 

expire in 2019. As a result, the FFV share of LDV sales rises over 

the next decade and then declines.

Sales of hybrid electric and all-electric vehicles that use stored 

electric energy for motive power grow considerably in the 

Reference case (Figure 73). Gasoline- and diesel-electric hybrid 

vehicles account for 6 percent of total LDV sales in 2040; and 

plug-in hybrid and all-electric vehicles account for 3 percent of 

total LDV sales, or 6 percent of sales of vehicles using diesel, 

alternative fuels, hybrid, or all-electric systems.

The diesel vehicle share of total sales remains constant over 

the projection period at about 4 percent of total LDV sales. 

Light-duty gaseous and fuel cell vehicles account for less than 

1 percent of new vehicle sales throughout the projection period 

because of limited fueling infrastructure and high incremental 

vehicle costs.

0

2

4

6

8

10

2011 2025 2040

Flex-fuel

Total

Electric hybrid

Micro hybrid

Diesel

Plug-in and all-electric

Gaseous and fuel cell

Figure 73. Sales of light-duty vehicles using nongasoline technologies by type, 2011, 2025, and 2040 

(million vehicles sold)

History 2011 Projections

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1995 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Heavy-duty vehicles

Buses

Light-duty vehicles

Figure 74. Natural gas consumption in the 

transportation sector, 1995-2040 (quadrillion Btu)
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013 71

Coal-fired power plants continue to be the largest source of 

electricity generation in the AEO2013 Reference case (Figure 

76), but their market share declines significantly. From 42 percent in 2011, coal’s share of total U.S. generation declines to 38 

percent in 2025 and 35 percent in 2040. Approximately 15 percent of the coal-fired capacity active in 2011 is expected to be 

retired by 2040 in the Reference case, while only 4 percent of 

new generating capacity added is coal-fired. Existing coal-fired 

units that have undergone environmental equipment retrofits 

continue to operate throughout the projection.

Generation from natural gas increases by an average of 1.6 percent per year from 2011 to 2040, and its share of total generation grows from 24 percent in 2011 to 27 percent in 2025 

and 30 percent in 2040. The relatively low cost of natural gas 

makes the dispatching of existing natural gas plants more competitive with coal plants and, in combination with relatively low 

capital costs, makes plants fueled by natural gas an alternative 

choice for new generation capacity.

Generation from renewable sources grows by 1.7 percent per 

year on average in the Reference case, and the share of total 

generation rises from 13 percent in 2011 to 16 percent in 2040. 

The nonhydropower share of total renewable generation 

increases from 38 percent in 2011 to 65 percent in 2040.

Generation from U.S. nuclear power plants increases by 0.5 

percent per year on average from 2011 to 2040, with most of 

the growth between 2011 and 2025, but the share of total U.S. 

electricity generation declines from 19 percent in 2011 to 17 percent in 2040, as the growth in nuclear generation is outpaced by 

growth in generation using natural gas and renewables.

Electricity demand

Growth in electricity use slows but still 

increases by 28 percent from 2011 to 2040

Coal-fired plants continue to be the largest 

source of U.S. electricity generation

The growth of electricity demand (including retail sales and direct 

use) has slowed in each decade since the 1950s, from a 9.8-percent annual rate of growth from 1949 to 1959 to only 0.7 percent 

per year in the first decade of the 21st century. In the AEO2013

Reference case, electricity demand growth remains relatively slow, 

as increasing demand for electricity services is offset by efficiency 

gains from new appliance standards and investments in energyefficient equipment (Figure 75). Total electricity demand grows by 

28 percent in the projection (0.9 percent per year), from 3,839 billion kilowatthours in 2011 to 4,930 billion kilowatthours in 2040.

Retail electricity sales grow by 24 percent (0.7 percent per year) 

in the Reference case, from 3,725 billion kilowatthours in 2011 

to 4,608 billion kilowatthours in 2040. Residential electricity 

sales also grow by 24 percent, to 1,767 billion kilowatthours in 

2040, spurred by population growth and continued population 

shifts to warmer regions with greater cooling requirements. Led 

by demand in the service industries, sales of electricity to the 

commercial sector increase by 27 percent, to 1,677 billion kilowatthours in 2040. Sales to the industrial sector grow by 17 

percent, to 1,145 billion kilowatthours in 2040. Electricity sales 

to the transportation sector, although relatively small, triple 

from 6 billion kilowatthours in 2011 to 19 billion kilowatthours in 

2040 with increasing sales of electric plug-in LDVs.

Electricity demand can vary with different assumptions about economic growth, electricity prices, and advances in energy-efficient 

technologies. In the High Economic Growth case, demand grows 

by 42 percent from 2011 to 2040, compared with 18 percent in 

the Low Economic Growth case and only 7 percent in the Best 

Available Technology case. Average electricity prices (in 2011 dollars) increase by 5 percent from 2011 to 2040 in the Low Economic 

Growth case and 13 percent in the High Economic Growth case, to 

10.4 and 11.2 cents per kilowatthour, respectively, in 2040.

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

Coal Natural gas Nuclear Renewables

2011

2025

2040

Figure 76. Electricity generation by fuel, 

2011, 2025, and 2040 (billion kilowatthours)

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

History 2011 Projections

3-year moving average

Trendline

Figure 75. U.S. electricity demand growth, 1950-2040 

(percent, 3-year moving average)
72 U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013

Decisions to add capacity, and the choice of fuel for new capacity, depend on a number of factors [132]. With growing electricity demand and the retirement of 103 gigawatts of existing 

capacity, 340 gigawatts of new generating capacity [133] 

is added in the AEO2013 Reference case from 2012 to 2040 

(Figure 77).

Natural gas-fired plants account for 63 percent of capacity additions from 2012 to 2040 in the Reference case, compared with 

31 percent for renewables, 3 percent for coal, and 3 percent for 

nuclear. Escalating construction costs have the largest impact 

on capital-intensive technologies, which include nuclear, coal, 

and renewables. However, federal tax incentives, state energy 

programs, and rising prices for fossil fuels increase the competitiveness of renewable and nuclear capacity. Current federal 

and state environmental regulations also affect the use of fossil 

fuels, particularly coal. Uncertainty about future limits on GHG 

emissions and other possible environmental programs also 

reduces the competitiveness of coal-fired plants (reflected in 

the AEO2013 Reference case by adding 3 percentage points to 

the cost of capital for new coal-fired capacity).

Uncertainty about electricity demand growth and fuel prices 

also affects capacity planning. Total capacity additions from 

2012 to 2040 range from 252 gigawatts in the Low Economic 

Growth case to 498 gigawatts in the High Economic Growth 

case. In the Low Oil and Gas Resource case, natural gas 

prices are higher than in the Reference case, and new natural 

gas-fired capacity added from 2012 to 2040 totals 152 gigawatts, or 42 percent of total additions. In the High Oil and Gas 

Resource case, delivered natural gas prices are lower than in 

the Reference case, and 311 gigawatts of new natural gas-fired 

capacity is added from 2012 to 2040, accounting for 82 percent of total new capacity.

Electricity generation

Most new capacity additions 

use natural gas and renewables

Additions to power plant capacity slow 

after 2012 but accelerate beyond 2023

0

20

40

60

2012-

2015

2016-

2020

2021-

2025

2026-

2030

2031-

2035

2036-

2040

Nuclear

Natural gas

Coal

Renewables/other

Figure 77. Electricity generation capacity additions 

by fuel type, including combined heat and power, 

2012-2040 (gigawatts)

Typically, investments in electricity generation capacity have 

gone through boom-and-bust cycles. Periods of slower growth 

have been followed by strong growth in response to changing 

expectations for future electricity demand and fuel prices, as 

well as changes in the industry, such as restructuring (Figure 

78). A construction boom in the early 2000s saw capacity 

additions averaging 35 gigawatts a year from 2000 to 2005. 

Since then, average annual builds have dropped to 18 gigawatts 

per year from 2006 to 2011.

In the AEO2013 Reference case, capacity additions from 2012 to 

2040 total 340 gigawatts, including new plants built not only 

in the power sector but also by end-use generators. Annual 

additions in 2012 and 2013 remain relatively high, averaging 22 

gigawatts per year. Of those early builds, 51 percent are renewable plants built to take advantage of federal tax incentives and 

to meet state renewable standards.

Annual builds drop significantly after 2013 and remain below 

9 gigawatts per year until 2023. During that period, existing capacity is adequate to meet growth in demand in most 

regions, given the earlier construction boom and relatively 

slow growth in electricity demand after the economic recession. Between 2025 and 2040, average annual builds increase 

to 14 gigawatts per year, as excess capacity is depleted and the 

rate of total capacity growth is more consistent with electricity demand growth. About 68 percent of the capacity additions 

from 2025 to 2040 are natural gas-fired, given the higher construction costs for other capacity types and uncertainty about 

the prospects for future limits on GHG emissions.

2011

0

20

40

60

1985 1995 2005 2020 2030 2040

History Projections

Other renewables

Natural gas/oil

Nuclear

Hydropower/other

Coal

Wind

Solar

Figure 78. Additions to electricity generating capacity, 

1985-2040 (gigawatts)
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013 73

Electricity sales

Growth in generating capacity 

parallels rising demand for electricity

Costs and regulatory uncertainties vary 

across options for new capacity

Technology choices for new generating capacity are based 

largely on capital, operating, and transmission costs [134]. 

Coal, nuclear, and wind plants are capital-intensive (Figure 80), 

whereas operating (fuel) expenditures make up most of the 

costs for natural gas plants. Capital costs depend on such factors as equipment costs, interest rates, and cost recovery periods, which vary with technology. Fuel costs vary with operating 

efficiency, fuel price, and transportation costs.

In addition to considerations of levelized costs [135], some 

technologies and fuels receive subsidies, such as production or 

ITCs. Also, new plants must satisfy local and federal emissions 

standards and must be compatible with the utility’s load profile.

Regulatory uncertainty also affects capacity planning. New coal 

plants may require carbon control and sequestration equipment, resulting in higher material, labor, and operating costs. 

Alternatively, coal plants without carbon controls could incur 

higher costs for siting and permitting. Because nuclear and 

renewable power plants (including wind plants) do not emit 

GHGs, their costs are not directly affected by regulatory uncertainty in this area.

Capital costs can decline over time as developers gain technology experience, with the largest rate of decline observed in 

new technologies. In the AEO2013 Reference case, the capital 

costs of new technologies are adjusted upward initially to compensate for the optimism inherent in early estimates of project 

costs, then decline as project developers gain experience. The 

decline continues at a progressively slower rate as more units 

are built. Operating efficiencies also are assumed to improve 

over time, resulting in reduced variable costs unless increases 

in fuel costs exceed the savings from efficiency gains.

0 5 10 15

Natural gas

combined cycle

Wind

Nuclear

Coal

Natural gas

combined cycle

Wind

Nuclear

Coal

Incremental

transmission costs

Capital costs

Fixed	costs

Variable	costs,	including	fuel

2020

2040

Figure 80. Levelized electricity costs for new power 

plants, excluding subsidies, 2020 and 2040 

(2011 cents per kilowatthour)

Over the long term, growth in electricity generating capacity parallels the growth in end-use demand for electricity. 

Unexpected shifts in demand or dramatic changes affecting 

capacity investment decisions can, however, cause imbalances 

that may take years to be worked out.

Figure 79 shows indexes summarizing relative changes in total 

generating capacity and electricity demand. During the 1950s 

and 1960s, the capacity and demand indexes tracked closely. The 

energy crises of the 1970s and 1980s, together with other factors, slowed electricity demand growth, and capacity growth outpaced demand for more than 10 years thereafter, as planned units 

continued to come on line. Demand and capacity did not align 

again until the mid-1990s. Then, in the late 1990s, uncertainty 

about deregulation of the electricity industry caused a downturn 

in capacity expansion, and another period of imbalance followed, 

with growth in electricity demand exceeding capacity growth.

In 2000, a boom in construction of new natural gas-fired plants 

began, bringing capacity back into balance with demand and creating excess capacity. Construction of new wind capacity that 

sometimes needs backup capacity because of intermittency also 

began to grow after 2000. More recently, the 2007-2009 economic recession caused a significant drop in electricity demand, 

which has yet to recover. Slow near-term growth in electricity 

demand in the AEO2013 Reference case creates excess generating 

capacity. Capacity currently under construction is completed, but 

a limited amount of additional capacity is built before 2025, while 

older capacity is retired. By 2025, capacity growth and demand 

growth are in balance again, and they grow at similar rates 

through 2035. In the later years, total capacity grows at a rate 

slightly higher than demand, due in part to an increasing share of 

intermittent renewable capacity that does not contribute to meeting demand in the same proportion as dispatchable capacity.

0

5

10

15

20

1949 1965 1985 2000 2020 2040

History 2011 Projections

Power sector generating capacity

Electricity sales

Figure 79. Electricity sales and power sector 

generating capacity, 1949-2040 (indexes, 1949 = 1.0)
74 U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013

Electricity capacity

Nuclear power plant capacity grows slowly 

through uprates and new builds

Solar photovoltaics and wind dominate 

renewable capacity growth

Renewable generating capacity accounts for nearly one-fifth 

of total generating capacity in 2040 in the AEO2013 Reference 

case. Nearly all renewable capacity additions over the period 

consist of nonhydropower capacity, which grows by more than 

150 percent from 2011 to 2040 (Figure 82).

Solar generation capacity leads renewable capacity growth, 

increasing by more than 1,000 percent, or 46 gigawatts, from 

2011 to 2040. Wind capacity follows closely, accounting for an 

additional 42 gigawatts of new renewable capacity by 2040. 

Nonetheless, wind continues to be the leading source of nonhydropower renewable capacity in 2040, given its relatively high 

initial capacity in 2011, after a decade of exponential growth 

resulting from the availability of production tax credits and 

other incentives. Although geothermal and dedicated biomass 

generation capacity do not increase on the same scale as wind 

and solar (contributing an additional 5 gigawatts and 7 gigawatts, respectively, over the projection period), biomass capacity nearly doubles and geothermal capacity more than triples 

over the same period.

Renewable capacity additions are supported by state RPS, the 

federal renewable fuels standard, and federal tax credits. Nearterm growth is strong as developers build capacity to qualify 

for tax credits that expire at the end of 2012, 2013, and 2016. 

After 2016, capacity growth through 2030 is minimal, given 

relatively slower growth in electricity demand, low natural gas 

prices, and the stagnation or expiration of the state and federal policies that support renewable capacity additions. As the 

need for new generation capacity increases, however, and as 

renewables become increasingly cost-competitive in selected 

regions, growth in nonhydropower renewable generation 

capacity rebounds during the final decade of the Reference 

case projection from 2030 to 2040.

In the AEO2013 Reference case, nuclear power capacity 

increases from 101.1 gigawatts in 2011 to a high of 114.1 gigawatts in 2025, before declining to 108.5 gigawatts in 2036 

(Figure 81), largely as a result of plant retirements. New additions in the later years of the projection bring nuclear capacity back up to 113.1 gigawatts in 2040. The capacity increase 

through 2025 includes 8.0 gigawatts of expansion at existing plants and 5.5 gigawatts of new capacity, which includes 

completion of a conventional reactor at the Watts Bar site. Four 

advanced reactors, reported as under construction, also are 

assumed to be brought online by 2020 and to be eligible for 

federal financial incentives. High construction costs for nuclear 

plants, especially relative to natural gas-fired plants, make 

additional options for new nuclear capacity uneconomical until 

the later years of the projection, when an additional 5.5 gigawatts is added. Nuclear capacity additions vary with assumptions about overall demand for electricity. Across the Economic 

Growth cases, net additions of nuclear capacity from 2012 to 

2040 range from 5.5 gigawatts in the Low Economic Growth 

case to 36.1 gigawatts in the High Economic Growth case.

One nuclear unit, Oyster Creek, is expected to be retired at the 

end of 2019, as announced by Exelon in December 2010. An 

additional 6.5 gigawatts of nuclear capacity is assumed to be 

retired by 2036 in the Reference case. All other existing nuclear 

units continue to operate through 2040 in the Reference case, 

which assumes that they will apply for and receive operating 

license renewals, including in some cases a second 20-year 

extension after 60 years of operation (for more discussion, see 

“Issues in focus”). With costs for natural gas-fired generation 

rising in the Reference case and uncertainty about future regulation of GHG emissions, the economics of keeping existing 

nuclear power plants in operation are favorable.

Biomass

Geothermal

Solar

Wind

MSW/LFG

Hydropower

0

50

100

150

200

250

2011 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Figure 82. Renewable electricity generation capacity 

by energy source, including end-use capacity, 

2011-2040 (gigawatts)

0 25 50 75 100 125 150

2040

History 2011

Low economic

growth

High economic

growth

Reference 2025

Low economic

growth

High economic

growth

Reference

Figure 81. Electricity generating capacity at U.S. 

nuclear power plants in three cases, 2011, 2025, 

and 2040 (gigawatts)
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013 75

Renewable generation

Solar, wind, and biomass lead growth in 

renewable generation, hydropower remains flat

State renewable portfolio standards increase 

renewable electricity generation

In the AEO2013 Reference case, renewable generation increases 

from 524 billion kilowatthours in 2011 to 858 billion kilowatthours in 2040, growing by an average of 1.7 percent per year 

(Figure 83). Wind, solar, and biomass account for most of the 

growth. The increase in wind-powered generation from 2011 to 

2040, at 134 billion kilowatthours, or 2.6 percent per year, represents the largest absolute increase in renewable generation. 

Generation from solar energy grows by 92 billion kilowatthours 

over the same period, representing the highest annual average 

growth at 9.8 percent per year. Biomass increases by 95 billion 

kilowatthours over the projection period, for an average annual 

increase of 4.5 percent.

Hydropower production drops in 2012, from 325 billion kilowatthours in 2011, as existing plants are assumed to continue 

operating at their long-term average production levels. Even 

with little growth in capacity, hydropower remains the leading source of renewable generation throughout the projection. 

Although total wind capacity exceeds hydropower capacity in 

2040, wind generators typically operate at much lower capacity 

factors, and their total generation is lower. Biomass is the thirdlargest source of renewable generation throughout the projection, with rapid growth particularly in the first decade of the 

period, reaching 102 billion kilowatthours in 2021 from 37 billion 

kilowatthours in 2011. The strong growth is a result primarily 

of increased penetration of co-firing technology in the electric 

power sector, encouraged by state-level policies and increasing 

cost-competitiveness with coal in parts of the Southeast.

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

2008 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

2011

Geothermal

Biomass

Solar

Wind

MSW/LFG

Hydropower

Figure 83. Renewable electricity generation by type, 

including end-use generation, 2008-2040 

(billion kilowatthours)

Regional growth in nonhydroelectric renewable electricity generation is based largely on three factors: availability of renewable energy resources, cost competitiveness with fossil fuel 

technologies, and the existence of state RPS programs that 

require the use of renewable generation. After a period of robust 

RPS enactments in several states, the past few years have been 

relatively quiet in terms of state program expansions.

In the AEO2013 Reference case, the highest level of nonhydroelectric renewable generation in 2040, at 104 billion kilowatthours, occurs in the WECC California (CAMX) region (Figure 

84), whose area approximates the California state boundaries. (For a map of the electricity regions and a definition of 

the acronyms, see Appendix F.) The three largest sources of 

nonhydro-electric renewable generation in 2040 in that region 

are geothermal, solar, and wind energy. The region encompassing the Pacific Northwest has the most renewable generation in 

the United States when hydroelectric is included, which is the 

source of most of the region’s renewable electricity generation.

State RPS programs heavily influence the growth of solar capacity in the eastern states. A prime example is the Reliability First 

Corporation/East (RFCE) region, where 7.5 billion kilowatthours of electricity is generated from solar resources in 2040, 

mostly from end-use capacity. The RFCE region is not known 

for a strong solar resource base, and the projected installations 

are in response to the federal tax credits, state incentives, and 

solar energy requirements embedded in state RPS programs. 

The CAMX region has the highest total for solar generation in 

2040 at 36 billion kilowatthours, including 10 billion kilowatthours of generation from end-use solar capacity.

0 20 40 60 80 100 120

NYCW

NYLI

MORE

SRG

RFCM

NYUP

SRCE

SRDA

FRCC

NEWE

RFCE

SRSE

RMPA

SPSO

RFCW

SPNO

ERCT

AZNM

SRVC

MRO

NWPP

CAMX

2011

2040

Figure 84. Regional nonhydropower renewable 

electricity generation, including end-use generation, 

2011 and 2040 (billion kilowatthours)
76 U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013

U.S. natural gas prices have remained relatively low over the 

past several years as a result of abundant domestic supply and 

efficient methods of production. However, the cost of developing new incremental production needed to support continued 

growth in natural gas consumption and exports rises gradually 

in the AEO2013 Reference case, leading to an increase in the 

Henry Hub spot price. Henry Hub spot prices for natural gas 

increase by an average of about 2.4 percent per year, to $7.83 

per million Btu (2011 dollars) in 2040 (Figure 86).

As of January 1, 2011, total proved and unproved U.S. natural 

gas resources (total recoverable resources) were estimated to 

total 2,327 trillion cubic feet. Over time, however, the depletion of resources in inexpensive areas leads producers to basins 

where recovery of the gas is more difficult and more expensive, 

causing the cost of production to rise gradually.

In the Reference case, natural gas prices remain low at the 

beginning of the projection period, as producers continue to 

extract natural gas resources from the most productive and 

inexpensive areas. Drilling activity remains robust despite the 

relatively low prices (below $4 per million Btu), particularly as 

producers extract natural gas from areas with high contents of 

NGL or oil. Prices begin to rise after 2015, and they continue 

rising in the projection through 2040.

Natural gas consumption

Industrial and electric power sectors lead 

U.S. growth in natural gas consumption

Natural gas prices rise with an expected 

increase in production costs after 2015

U.S. total natural gas consumption grows from 24.4 trillion cubic 

feet in 2011 to 29.5 trillion cubic feet in 2040 in the AEO2013

Reference case. Natural gas use increases in all the end-use sectors except residential (Figure 85), where consumption declines 

as a result of improvements in appliance efficiency and falling 

demand for space heating, attributable in part to population 

shifts to warmer regions of the country.

Despite falling early in the projection period from a spike in 

2012, which resulted from very low natural gas prices relative to 

coal, consumption of natural gas for power generation increases 

by an average of 0.8 percent per year, with more natural gas 

used for electricity production as relatively low prices make natural gas more competitive with coal. Over the projection period, 

the natural gas share of total power generation grows, while the 

coal share declines.

Natural gas consumption in the industrial sector increases by 

an average of 0.5 percent per year from 2011 to 2040. This 

includes 0.7 trillion cubic feet of natural gas used in GTL, which 

is largely consumed in the transportation sector. Industrial output grows as the energy-intensive industries take advantage 

of relatively low natural gas prices, particularly through 2025. 

After 2025, growth in the sector slows in response to rising 

prices and increased international competition.

Although vehicle uses currently account for only a small part 

of total U.S. natural gas consumption, the projected percentage 

growth in natural gas demand by vehicles is the largest percentage growth in the projection. With incentives and low natural 

gas prices leading to increased demand for natural gas as a 

fuel for HDVs, particularly after 2025, consumption in vehicles 

increases from about 40 billion cubic feet in 2011 to just over 1 

trillion cubic feet in 2040.

History 2011 Projections

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Industrial

Electric power

Residential

Commercial

Transportation

Figure 85. Natural gas consumption by sector, 

1990-2040 (trillion cubic feet)

History 2011 Projections

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Figure 86. Annual average Henry Hub spot natural gas 

prices, 1990-2040 (2011 dollars per million Btu)
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013 77

Natural gas prices

Energy from natural gas remains far less 

expensive than energy from oil through 2040

Natural gas prices depend on economic growth 

and resource recovery rates among other factors

The ratio of oil prices to natural gas prices is defined in terms 

of the Brent crude oil price and the Henry Hub spot natural gas 

price on an energy-equivalent basis. U.S. natural gas prices are 

determined largely on a regional basis, in response to supply 

and demand conditions in North America. Oil prices are more 

responsive to global supply and demand. A 1:1 ratio indicates 

that crude oil and natural gas cost the same in terms of energy 

content. On that basis, crude oil remains far more expensive 

than natural gas through 2040 (Figure 87), but the difference 

in the costs of the two fuels narrows over time.

With rising demand and production costs, both crude oil and 

natural gas prices increase through 2040; however, the oil 

price rises more slowly than the natural gas price, bringing the 

oil-to-gas price ratio down from its 2012 level. Low natural gas 

prices, the result of abundant domestic supply and weak winter 

demand, combined with high oil prices, caused a sharp rise in 

the oil-to-gas price ratio in 2012.

Natural gas prices nearly double in the AEO2013 Reference 

case, from $3.98 per million Btu in 2011 to $7.83 in 2040 

(2011 dollars), and oil prices increase by about 50 percent, to 

$28.05 per million Btu in 2040. Over the entire period, the ratio 

remains well above the levels of the two previous decades. Oil 

and natural gas prices were more strongly aligned until about 

2006, and the ratio of oil prices to natural gas prices was lower. 

Since 2006, however, natural gas prices have fallen as a result 

of abundant domestic supplies and production. In contrast, oil 

prices have increased and remained relatively high as global 

demand has increased over the past several years.

0

2

4

6

8

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

History 2011 Projections

Figure 87. Ratio of Brent crude oil price to 

Henry Hub spot natural gas price in energyequivalent terms, 1990-2040

Future levels of natural gas prices depend on many factors, 

including macroeconomic growth rates and expected rates of 

resource recovery from natural gas wells. Higher rates of economic growth lead to increased consumption of natural gas 

(primarily in response to higher levels of housing starts, commercial floorspace, and industrial output), causing more rapid 

depletion of natural gas resources and a more rapid increase in 

the cost of developing new production, which push natural gas 

prices higher. The converse is true in the Low Economic Growth 

case (Figure 88).

A lower rate of recovery from oil and gas wells implies higher 

costs per unit and higher prices. A higher rate of recovery 

implies lower costs per unit and lower prices. In comparison 

with the Reference case, the Low Oil and Gas Resource case 

assumes lower estimated ultimate recovery (EUR) from each 

shale well or tight well. The High Oil and Gas Resource case 

represents a more extreme case, with higher estimates for 

recoverable crude oil and natural gas resources in tight wells 

and shale formations and for offshore resources in the lower 48 

states and Alaska.

In both cases, there are mitigating effects that dampen the initial price response from the demand or supply shift. For example, lower natural gas prices lead to an increase in natural gas 

exports, which places some upward pressure on natural gas 

prices. In addition, lower prices are likely to lead to less drilling for natural gas and lower production potential, placing some 

upward pressure on natural gas prices.

History 2011 Projections

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Low Oil and Gas Resource

High Oil and Gas Resource

Reference

High Economic Growth

Low Economic Growth

Figure 88. Annual average Henry Hub spot prices 

for natural gas in five cases, 1990-2040 

(2011 dollars per million Btu)
78 U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013

The United States consumed more natural gas than it produced 

in 2011, with net imports of almost 2 trillion cubic feet. As 

domestic supply has increased, however, natural gas prices have 

declined, making the United States a less attractive market and 

reducing U.S. imports. Conversely, lower prices have made purchases of U.S. natural gas more attractive, increasing exports. In 

the AEO2013 Reference case, the United States becomes a net 

exporter of natural gas by 2020 (Figure 89).

Production growth, led by increased development of shale gas 

resources, outpaces consumption growth in the Reference case—

a pattern that continues through 2040. As a result, exports continue to grow at a rate of about 17.7 percent per year from 2020 

to 2040. Net exports in 2020 are less than 1 percent of total 

consumption; in 2040 they are 12 percent of consumption.

U.S. natural gas production increases by about 1 percent per 

year from 2011 to 2040 in the Reference case, meeting domestic 

demand while also allowing for more exports. The prospects for 

future exports are highly uncertain, however, depending on many 

factors that are difficult to anticipate, such as the development 

of new production capacity in foreign countries, particularly from 

deepwater reservoirs, shale gas deposits, and the Arctic.

Natural gas production

With production outpacing consumption, 

U.S. exports of natural gas exceed imports

U.S. natural gas production is affected by oil 

prices through consumption and exports

History 2011 Projections

-10

0

10

20

30

40

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Total production

Total consumption

Net	exports,	2040	(12%)

Net	imports,	2011	(8%)

Net imports

Figure 89. Total U.S. natural gas production, 

consumption, and net imports, 1990-2040 

(trillion cubic feet)

U.S. natural gas production is affected by crude oil prices primarily through changes in natural gas consumption and exports. 

Across the AEO2013 oil price cases, the largest changes in 

natural gas use occur in natural gas converted into liquid fuels 

via GTL, directly consumed in transportation as CNG or LNG, 

and exported as LNG. Because world LNG prices are directly 

affected by crude oil prices, depending on regional market conditions, crude oil prices are important to the market value of 

LNG exported from the United States.

The profitability of using natural gas as a transportation fuel, 

or for exporting LNG, depends largely on the price differential 

between crude oil and natural gas. The greater the difference 

between crude oil and natural gas prices, the greater the incentive to use natural gas. For example, in the Low Oil Price case, 

average oil prices are about $7.80 per million Btu higher than 

natural gas prices from 2012 through 2040—a relatively low 

price differential that leads to virtually no use of natural gas for 

transportation and very little for LNG exports. In the High Oil 

Price case, the average price difference is about $24.30 per 

million Btu from 2012 through 2040, providing the incentives 

necessary to promote natural gas use in transportation applications and for export.

Across the price cases, total natural gas production varies by 

5.6 trillion cubic feet in 2040 (Figure 90). Changes in LNG 

exports account for 3.6 trillion cubic feet of the difference. 

Direct consumption of natural gas for transportation varies by 

2.1 trillion cubic feet between the two cases, and consumption 

for GTL production varies by 1.1 trillion cubic feet. Across the 

price cases, as natural gas production rises, so do natural gas 

prices; and as natural gas prices rise, consumption in the other 

end-use sectors falls by as much as 2.5 trillion cubic feet.

Figure 90. Total U.S. natural gas production in three 

oil price cases, 1990-2040 (trillion cubic feet per year)

History 2011 Projections

0

10

20

30

40

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Reference

High Oil Price

Low Oil Price
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013 79

Natural gas supply

Shale gas provides the largest source of 

growth in U.S. natural gas supply

Pipeline exports increase as Canadian imports 

fall and exports to Mexico rise

The 44-percent increase in total natural gas production from 

2011 through 2040 in the AEO2013 Reference case results from 

the increased development of shale gas, tight gas, and coalbed 

methane resources (Figure 91). Shale gas production, which 

grows by 113 percent from 2011 to 2040, is the greatest contributor to natural gas production growth. Its share of total production increases from 34 percent in 2011 to 50 percent in 2040. 

Tight gas and coalbed methane production also increase, by 25 

percent and 24 percent, respectively, from 2011 to 2040, even 

as their shares of total production decline slightly. The growth 

in coalbed methane production is not realized until after 2035, 

when natural gas prices and demand levels are high enough to 

spur more drilling.

Offshore natural gas production declines by 0.3 trillion cubic 

feet from 2011 through 2014, as offshore exploration and development activities are directed toward oil-prone areas in the Gulf 

of Mexico. After 2014, offshore natural gas production recovers as prices rise, growing to 2.8 trillion cubic feet in 2040. As 

a result, from 2011 to 2040, offshore natural gas production 

increases by 35 percent.

Alaska natural gas production also increases in the Reference 

case with the advent of Alaska LNG exports to overseas customers beginning in 2024 and growing to 0.8 trillion cubic feet 

per year (2.2 billion cubic feet per day) in 2027. In 2040, Alaska 

natural gas production totals 1.2 trillion cubic feet.

Although total U.S. natural gas production rises throughout the 

projection, onshore nonassociated conventional production 

declines from 3.6 trillion cubic feet in 2011 to 1.9 trillion cubic 

feet in 2040, when it accounts for only about 6 percent of total 

domestic production, down from 16 percent in 2011.

0

10

20

30

40

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

History 2011 Projections

Shale gas

Tight gas

Lower 48 onshore conventional

Coalbed methane

Lower 48 offshore Alaska

Figure 91. Natural gas production by source, 

1990-2040 (trillion cubic feet)

With relatively low natural gas prices in the AEO2013 Reference 

case, the United States becomes a net exporter of natural gas 

in 2020, and net exports grow to 3.6 trillion cubic feet in 2040 

(Figure 92). Most of the projected growth in U.S. exports consists of pipeline exports to Mexico, which increase steadily 

over the projection period, as increasing volumes of imported 

natural gas from the United States fill the growing gap between 

Mexico’s production and consumption. Exports to Mexico 

increase from 0.5 trillion cubic feet in 2011 to 2.4 trillion cubic 

feet in 2040.

U.S. exports of domestically sourced LNG (excluding existing 

exports from the Kenai facility in Alaska, which fall to zero in 

2013) begin in 2016 and rise to a level of 1.6 trillion cubic feet per 

year in 2027. One-half of the projected increase in U.S. exports 

of LNG originate in the Lower 48 states and the other half from 

Alaska. Continued low levels of LNG imports through the projection period position the United States as a net exporter of 

LNG by 2016. In general, future U.S. exports of LNG depend 

on a number of factors that are difficult to anticipate, including 

the speed and extent of price convergence in global natural gas 

markets, the extent to which natural gas competes with oil in 

domestic and international markets, and the pace of natural gas 

supply growth outside the United States.

Net natural gas imports from Canada decline sharply from 2016 

to 2022, then stabilize somewhat before dropping off again in 

the final years of the projection, as continued growth in domestic production mitigates the need for imports. Even as overall 

consumption exceeds supply in the United States, some natural 

gas imports from Canada continue, based on regional supply 

and demand conditions.

History 2011 Projections

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Canada

LNG

Mexico

Figure 92. U.S. net imports of natural gas by source, 

1990-2040 (trillion cubic feet)
80 U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013

Consumption of petroleum and other liquids peaks at 19.8 million barrels per day in 2019 in the AEO2013 Reference case and 

then falls to 18.9 million barrels per day in 2040 (Figure 93). 

The transportation sector accounts for the largest share of total 

consumption throughout the projection, although its share falls 

to 68 percent in 2040 from 72 percent in 2012 as a result of 

improvements in vehicle efficiency following the incorporation 

of CAFE standards for both LDVs and HDVs. Consumption of 

petroleum and other liquids increases in the industrial sector, 

by 0.6 million barrels per day from 2011 to 2040, but decreases 

in all the other end-use sectors.

Motor gasoline, ultra-low-sulfur diesel fuel, and jet fuel are the 

primary transportation fuels, supplemented by biofuels and natural gas. Motor gasoline consumption drops by approximately 

1.6 million barrels per day from 2011 to 2040 in the Reference 

case, while diesel fuel consumption increases from 3.5 million 

barrels per day in 2011 to 4.3 million in 2040, primarily for use in 

heavy-duty vehicles. At the same time, natural gas use in heavyduty vehicles displaces 0.7 million barrels per day of petroleumbased motor fuel in 2040, most of which is diesel.

An increase in consumption of biodiesel and next-generation 

biofuels [136], totaling about 0.4 million barrels per day from 

2011 to 2040, is attributable to the EISA2007 RFS mandates. 

The relative competitiveness of CTL and GTL fuels improves 

over the projection period as petroleum prices rise. In 2040, 

CTL and GTL together supply 0.3 million barrels per day of nonpetroleum liquids. Both ethanol blending into gasoline and E85 

consumption are essentially flat from 2011 through 2040, as a 

result of declining gasoline consumption and limited penetration of FFVs.

Petroleum and other liquids consumption

Petroleum and other liquids consumption 

outside industrial sector is stagnant or declines

Crude oil leads initial growth in liquids supply, 

next-generation liquids grow after 2020

History 2011 Projections

0

5

10

15

20

25

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Residential and commercial

Total

Transportation

Industrial

Electric power

Figure 93. Consumption of petroleum and other liquids 

by sector, 1990-2040 (million barrels per day)

In the AEO2013 Reference case, total production of petroleum 

and other liquids grows rapidly in the first decade and then 

slows in the later years before 2040 (Figure 94). Liquids production increases from 10.4 million barrels per day in 2011 

to 13.1 million barrels per day in 2019 primarily as a result of 

growth in onshore production of crude oil and NGL from tight 

oil formations (including shale plays).

After 2019, total U.S. production of petroleum and other liquids 

declines, to 12.0 million barrels per day in 2040, as crude oil 

production from tight oil plays levels off when less-productive 

or less-profitable areas are developed. The crude oil share 

of total domestic liquids production declines to 51 percent in 

2040 from a peak of 59 percent in 2016. NGL production also 

declines, to 2.9 million barrels per day in 2040 from a peak of 

3.2 million barrels per day in 2024.

Domestic ethanol production remains relatively flat throughout 

the projection, as consumption of motor gasoline decreases 

and the penetration of ethanol in the gasoline pool is slowed 

by the limited availability of FFVs and retrofitted filling stations. Total biofuel production increases by 0.4 million barrels 

per day in the projection, as drop-in fuels from biomass enter 

the market. Other emerging technologies capable of producing liquids—such as xTL [137], which includes CTL and GTL 

technologies—also become economical as more plants are 

built. In 2040, liquids production from xTL plants totals 0.3 million barrels per day. Investment in xTL technologies is slowed 

somewhat by high capital costs and the risk that xTL liquids 

production will not remain price-competitive with crude oil.

0

5

10

15

2011 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

xTL

Other

Biofuels

Natural gas liquids

Crude oil

Figure 94. U.S. production of petroleum and other 

liquids by source, 2011-2040 (million barrels per day)
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013 81

Petroleum and other liquids supply

U.S. oil production rates depend on resource 

availability and advances in technology

Lower 48 onshore tight oil development spurs 

increase in U.S. crude oil production

The outlook for domestic crude oil production depends on the 

production profiles of individual wells over time, the costs of 

drilling and operating those wells, and the revenues they generate (Figure 95). Every year, EIA reestimates initial production 

rates and production decline curves, which determine EUR per 

well and total technically recoverable resources. The underlying resource for the AEO2013 Reference case is uncertain, particularly as exploration and development of tight oil continue 

to move into areas with little or no production history. Because 

many wells drilled in tight formations or shale formations using 

the latest technologies have less than two years of production 

history, the impacts of recent technology advances on the estimate of future recovery cannot be fully ascertained.

In the High Oil and Gas Resource case, domestic crude oil production continues to increase through the projection period, 

to more than 10 million barrels per day in 2040. This case 

includes: (1) higher estimates of onshore lower 48 tight oil, tight 

gas, and shale gas resources than in the Reference case, as a 

result of higher estimated ultimate recovery per well and closer 

well spacing as additional layers of low-permeability zones are 

identified and developed; (2) tight oil development in Alaska; 

and (3) higher estimates of offshore resources in Alaska and 

the lower 48 states, resulting in more and earlier development 

of those resources than in the Reference case.

The Low Oil and Gas Resource case considers the impacts of 

lower estimates of tight oil, tight gas, and shale gas resources 

than in the Reference case. These two alternative cases provide a framework for examining the impacts of higher and lower 

domestic supply on energy demand, imports, and prices.

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

History 2011 Projections

Reference

Low Oil and Gas Resource

High Oil and Gas Resource

Figure 95. Total U.S. crude oil production in three 

resource cases, 1990-2040 (million barrels per day)

U.S. crude oil production rises through 2016 in the AEO2013 Reference case, before leveling off at about 7.5 million barrels per 

day from 2016 through 2020—approximately 1.8 million barrels per day above 2011 volumes (Figure 96). Growth in lower 

48 onshore crude oil production results primarily from continued development of tight oil resources, mostly in the Bakken, 

Eagle Ford, and Permian Basin formations. Tight oil production 

reaches 2.8 million barrels per day in 2020 and then declines to 

about 2.0 million barrels per day in 2040, still higher than 2011 

levels, as high-productivity sweet spots are depleted. There is 

uncertainty about the expected peak level of tight oil production, because ongoing exploration, appraisal, and development 

programs expand operators’ knowledge about producing reservoirs and could result in the identification of additional tight 

oil resources.

Crude oil production using carbon dioxide-enhanced oil recovery (CO2-EOR) increases appreciably after about 2020, when 

oil prices rise as output from the more profitable tight oil deposits begins declining, and affordable anthropogenic sources of 

carbon dioxide (CO2) become available. Production plateaus at 

about 650,000 barrels per day from 2034 to 2040, when production is limited by reservoir quality and CO2 availability. From 

2012 through 2040, cumulative crude oil production from CO2-

EOR projects is 4.7 billion barrels.

Lower 48 offshore oil production varies between 1.4 and 1.8 million barrels per day over the projection period. Toward the end 

of the projection the pace of exploration and production activity 

quickens, and new large development projects, associated predominantly with discoveries in the deepwater and ultra-deepwater portions of the Gulf of Mexico, are brought on stream. New 

offshore oil production in the Alaska North Slope areas partially 

offsets the decline in production from North Slope onshore fields.

History 2011 Projections

0

2

4

6

8

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Lower 48 onshore

Total

Lower 48 offshore

Alaska

Figure 96. Domestic crude oil production by source, 

2000-2040 (million barrels per day)
82 U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013

Petroleum and other liquids supply

Tight oil formations account for a significant 

portion of total U.S. production

Domestic production of tight oil leads to lower 

imports of light sweet crude oil

The term tight oil does not have a specific technical, scientific, or 

geologic definition. Tight oil is an industry convention that generally refers to oil produced from very-low-permeability [138] 

shale, sandstone, and carbonate formations. Some of these 

geologic formations have been producing low volumes of oil for 

many decades in limited portions of the formation.

In the AEO2013 Reference Case, about 25.3 billion barrels of 

tight oil are produced cumulatively from 2012 through 2040. 

The Bakken-Three Forks formations contribute 32 percent of 

this production, while the Eagle Ford and Permian Basin formations respectively account for 24 and 22 percent of the 

cumulative tight oil production. The remaining 22 percent 

of cumulative tight oil production comes from other formations, including but not limited to the Austin Chalk, Niobrara, 

Monterey, and Woodford formations. Permian Basin tight oil 

production comes primarily from the Spraberry, Wolfcamp, 

and Avalon/Bone Spring formations, which are listed here relative to their contribution to cumulative production.

After 2021, tight oil production declines in the AEO2013 Reference 

case (Figure 97), as the depleted wells located in high-productivity areas are replaced by lower-productivity wells located 

elsewhere in the formations. In 2040, tight oil production is 2.0 

million barrels per day, about 33 percent of total U.S. oil production. Because tight oil wells exhibit high initial production rates 

followed by slowly declining production rates in later years, production declines rather slowly at the end of the projection period.

Tight oil development is still at an early stage, and the outlook is 

highly uncertain. Alternative cases, including ones in which tight 

oil production is significantly above the Reference case projection, are examined in the “Issues in focus” section of this report 

(see “Petroleum import dependence in a range of cases”).

0

1

2

3

2008 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

2011

Other

Permian Basin

Bakken

Eagle	Ford

Figure 97. Total U.S. tight oil production by geologic 

formation, 2008-2040 (million barrels per day)

API gravity is a measure of the specific gravity, or relative density, of a liquid, as defined by the American Petroleum Institute 

(API). It is expressed in degrees, where a higher number indicates lower density. Refineries generally process a mix of crude 

oils with a range of API gravities in order to optimize refinery 

operations. Over the past 15 years, the API gravity of crude oil 

processed in U.S. refineries has averaged between 30 and 31 

degrees. As U.S. refiners run more domestic light crude produced from tight formations, they need less imported light oil 

crude to maintain an optimal API gravity. With increasing U.S. 

production of light crude oil in the Reference case, the average 

API gravity of crude oil imports declines (Figure 98).

In the AEO2013 Reference case, the trend toward increasing 

imports of heavier crude oils continues through 2035 before 

stabilizing [139]. The increase in demand for diesel fuel in the 

projection, from 3.5 to 4.3 million barrels per day, leads to an 

increase in distillate and gas oil hydrocracking capacity (which 

increases diesel production capability) from 1.6 to 3.0 million 

barrels per day from 2011 to 2040.

The large increase in domestic production of light crude oil and 

the increase in imports of heavier crude oils have prompted significant investments in crude midstream infrastructure, including pipelines that will bring higher quantities of light sweet 

crudes to petroleum refineries along the U.S. Gulf Coast. In 

addition, significant investments are being made to move crude 

oil to refineries by rail. The Reference case assumes that sufficient infrastructure investments will be made through 2040 

to move both light and heavy crude oils.

0

10

20

30

40

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

History 2011 Projections

Domestic

Imported

Figure 98. API gravity of U.S. domestic and imported 

crude oil supplies, 1990-2040 (degrees)
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013 83

Petroleum and other liquids supply

Increasing U.S. supply results in decreasing net 

imports of petroleum and other liquids

U.S. consumption of cellulosic biofuels falls short 

of EISA2007 Renewable Fuels Standard target

0

25

50

75

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

History 2011 Projections

High Oil Price

Low Oil Price

Reference

The net import share of U.S. petroleum and other liquids consumption (including crude oil, petroleum liquids, and liquids 

derived from nonpetroleum sources) grew steadily from the 

mid-1980s to 2005 but has fallen in every year since then. In 

the AEO2013 Reference and High Oil Price cases, U.S. imports 

of petroleum and other liquids decline through 2020, while still 

providing approximately one-third of total U.S. supply. As a result 

of increased production of domestic petroleum, primarily from 

tight oil formations, and a moderation of demand growth with 

tightening fuel efficiency standards, the import share of total 

supply declines. Domestic production of crude oil from tight 

oil formations, primarily from the Williston, Western Gulf, and 

Permian basins, increases by about 1.5 million barrels per day 

from 2011 to 2016 in both the Reference and High Oil Price cases.

The net import share of U.S. petroleum and other liquids consumption, which fell from 60 percent in 2005 to 45 percent in 

2011, continues to decline in the Reference case, with the net 

import share falling to 34 percent in 2019 before increasing to 

37 percent in 2040 (Figure 99). In the High Oil Price case, the 

net import share falls to an even lower 27 percent in 2040. In 

the Low Oil Price case, the net import share remains relatively 

flat in the near term but rises to 51 percent in 2040, as domestic demand increases, and imports become less expensive than 

domestically produced crude oil.

As a result of increased domestic production and slow growth in 

consumption, the United States becomes a net exporter of petroleum products, with net exports in the Reference case increasing 

from 0.3 million barrels per day in 2011 to 0.7 million barrels per 

day in 2040. In the High Oil Price case, net exports of petroleum 

products increase to 1.2 million barrels per day in 2040.

Figure 99. Net import share of U.S. petroleum and 

other liquids consumption in three oil price cases, 

1990-2040 (percent)

0

10

20

30

40

2011 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Corn ethanol

EISA2007 renewable fuel standard

Cellulosic drop-in fuels

Imported ethanol

Biomass-based diesel

Advanced domestic ethanol

Biofuel consumption grows in the AEO2013 Reference case but 

falls well short of the EISA2007 RFS target [140] of 36 billion 

gallons ethanol equivalent in 2022 (Figure 100), largely because 

of a decline in gasoline consumption as a result of newly enacted 

CAFE standards and updated expectations for sales of vehicles 

capable of using E85. From 2011 to 2022, demand for motor 

gasoline ethanol blends (E10 and E15) falls from 8.7 million barrels to 8.1 million barrels per day.

Because the current and projected vehicle fleets are not 

equipped to use ethanol’s increased octane relative to gasoline, they cannot offset its lower energy density. As a result, the 

wholesale price of ethanol does not exceed two-thirds of the 

wholesale gasoline price. This reflects the energy-equivalent 

value of ethanol and would be the equilibrium price in periods 

with significant market penetration of blends with high ethanol 

content, such as E85. The RFS program does not provide sufficient incentives to promote significant new ethanol capacity 

in this pricing environment. Also during the projection period, 

consumption of biomass-based diesel levels off in the Reference 

case after growing to meet the current RFS target of 1.9 billion 

gallons ethanol equivalent in 2013.

Ethanol consumption falls from 16.4 billion gallons in 2022 to 

14.9 billion gallons in 2040 in the AEO2013 Reference case, as 

gasoline demand continues to drop and E85 consumption levels 

off. However, domestic consumption of drop-in cellulosic biofuels grows from 0.3 billion gallons to 9.0 billion gallons ethanol 

equivalent per year from 2011 to 2040, as rising oil prices lead 

to price increases for diesel fuel, heating oil, and jet fuel, while 

production costs for biofuel technologies fall.

Figure 100. EISA2007 RFS credits earned in 

selected years, 2011-2040 (billion credits)
84 U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013

Petroleum and other liquids supply

Renewable Fuel Standard and California Low 

Carbon Fuel Standard boost the use of new fuels

Efficiency standards shift consumption from 

motor gasoline to diesel fuel

0

2

4

6

8

10

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

History 2011 Projections

Motor gasoline

Diesel

Petroleum content only

(excluding ethanol)

Petroleum content only

0

200

400

600

2011 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

California

Other states

In response to the RFS implemented nationwide and the 

California Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS), consumption of 

advanced biofuels increases in the AEO2013 Reference case 

(Figure 101). As defined in the RFS, the advanced renewable 

fuels category consists of fuels that achieve a 50-percent reduction in life-cycle GHG emissions (including indirect changes in 

land use). The advanced fuel category includes ethanol produced from sugar cane (but not from corn starch), biodiesel, 

renewable diesel, and cellulosic biofuels [141]. California uses a 

large fraction of the total advanced renewable fuel pool in the 

early years of the projection.

Under the California LCFS, each fuel is considered individually 

according to its carbon intensity relative to the LCFS target. In 

general, fuels that qualify as advanced renewable fuels under 

the RFS have low carbon intensities for the purposes of the 

California LCFS, but the reverse is not always true.

Starting about 2030, production of cellulosic drop-in biofuels 

ramps up in California and other states. Outside California, production and consumption of cellulosic biofuels increases rapidly enough to cause a decline in California’s fraction of the total 

advanced biofuels market. Starting in about 2035, corn ethanol 

with low carbon intensity begins to displace imported sugar 

cane ethanol in California.

Figure 101. Consumption of advanced renewable fuels, 

2011-2040 (thousand barrels per day)

Based on NHTSA estimates, more stringent efficiency standards for LDVs will require new LDVs to average approximately 

49 mpg in 2025, in addition to regulations requiring increased 

use of ethanol. The combination contributes to a decline in consumption of motor gasoline and an increase in consumption of 

diesel fuel and ethanol in the AEO2013 Reference case. Motor 

gasoline consumption falls despite an increase in VMT by LDVs 

over the projection period.

The decrease in gasoline consumption, combined with growth 

in diesel consumption, leads to a shift in refinery outputs and 

investments. Motor gasoline consumption and diesel fuel consumption trend in opposite directions in the Reference case: 

consumption of diesel fuel increases by approximately 0.8 million barrels per day from 2011 to 2040, while finished motor 

gasoline consumption falls by 1.6 million barrels per day (Figure 

102). Although some smaller and less-integrated refineries 

begin to idle capacity as a result of higher costs, new refinery 

projects focus on shifting production from gasoline to distillate 

fuels to meet growing demand for diesel.

In the Reference case, as a result of refinery economics and 

slower growth in domestic demand, no new petroleum refinery capacity expansions are built during the projection period 

besides those already under construction. Further, approximately 200,000 barrels per day of capacity is retired, beginning 

in 2012. In addition to meeting domestic demand, refineries 

continue exporting finished products to international markets 

throughout the projection period. From 2014 to 2017 gross 

exports of finished products increase to more than 3.0 million 

barrels per day for the first time, and they remain near that level 

through 2040. Further, the United States, which became a net 

exporter of finished products in 2011, remains a net exporter 

through 2040 in the Reference case.

Figure 102. U.S. motor gasoline and diesel fuel 

consumption, 2000-2040 (million barrels per day)
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013 85

Coal production

Shifts in demand for liquid fuels change 

petroleum refinery yields and crack spreads

Early declines in coal production are followed 

by growth after 2016

Ratio of gasoline production to diesel production

0

15

30

45

2008 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

0

1

2

3

U.S. 3-2-1 crack spread (2011 dollars per barrel)

0

10

20

30

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Total

West

Appalachia

Interior

History 2011 Projections

The transition to lower gasoline and higher diesel production 

has a significant effect on petroleum refinery operations. In the 

AEO2013 Reference case, the ratio of gasoline to diesel production at petroleum refineries declines from 2.1 in 2012 to 1.6 

after 2035 (Figure 103). In response to the drop in gasoline 

demand, refinery utilization of fluid catalytic cracking (FCC) 

units drops from 83 percent in 2011 to about 62 percent in 

2040. In contrast, with diesel production increasing, installed 

distillate and gas oil hydrocracking capacity grows from about 

1.8 million barrels per day in 2012 to 3.0 million barrels per 

day in 2040. The increase in installed hydrocracking capacity implies a shifting of FCC feeds to hydrocrackers in order to 

maximize diesel production.

Refinery profitability is a function of crude input costs, processing costs, and market prices for the end products. Profitability 

often is estimated from the crack spread, which is the difference between the price of crude oil and the price of distilled 

products, typically gasoline and distillate fuel. The 3-2-1 crack 

spread estimates the profitability of processing 3 barrels of 

crude oil to produce 2 barrels of gasoline and 1 barrel of distillate. 

In the Reference case, the 3-2-1 crack spread (based on Brent) 

declines steadily from $17 per barrel (2011 dollars) in 2012 to 

about $5 per barrel in 2040. This represents a gross margin for 

the refinery, based on Brent crude prices and average gasoline 

and diesel prices in the United States. In the current environment, this gross margin would drop by the differential between 

the prices of Brent and Gulf Coast light crudes. To relate the 

gross margin to refinery profitability, operating costs for specific refineries would also have to be deducted. The decline in 

the 3-2-1 crack spread slows after 2016. As product demands 

shift, petroleum refineries may alter the ratio of gasoline to diesel production. A 5-3-2 crack spread would be more consistent 

with the 1.6 gasoline-to-diesel production ratio after 2035.

Figure 103. U.S. refinery gasoline-to-diesel production 

ratio and crack spread, 2008-2040

U.S. coal production largely follows the trend of domestic coal 

consumption, but increasingly it is influenced by coal exports. 

In the near term, the combination of relatively low natural gas 

prices and high coal prices, the lack of a strong recovery in electricity demand, and increasing generation of electricity from 

renewables suppress domestic coal consumption. In addition, 

new requirements to control emissions of mercury and acid 

gases result in the retirement of some coal-fired generating 

capacity, contributing to a near-term decline in coal demand. 

After 2016, coal production in the Reference case increases by 

an average of 0.6 percent per year through 2040 (Figure 104), 

as a result of growing coal exports and increasing use of coal in 

the electricity sector as electricity demand grows and natural 

gas prices rise.

On a regional basis, the Interior and Western regions show similar growth in production, while Appalachian output declines. 

Following some early setbacks, Western coal production 

increases steadily through 2035 before leveling off. Coal from 

the West satisfies much of the additional need for fuel at coalfired power plants, and it is also boosted by increasing exports 

and production of synthetic liquids. Coal production in the 

Interior region, which has trended downward slightly since the 

early 1990s, reaches new highs in the AEO2013 Reference case. 

Additional production from the region originates mostly from 

mines tapping into the substantial reserves of bituminous coal 

in Illinois, Indiana, and western Kentucky. Appalachian coal 

production declines substantially from current levels, as coal 

produced from the extensively mined, higher-cost reserves of 

Central Appalachia is supplanted by lower-cost coal from other 

regions. An expected increase in production from the northern 

part of the Appalachian basin moderates the overall decline.

Figure 104. Coal production by region, 1970-2040 

(quadrillion Btu)
86 U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013

Coal production

Outlook for U.S. coal production is affected 

by fuel price uncertainties

Expected declines in mining productivity lead to 

further increases in average minemouth prices

0

10

20

30

40

2011 2020 2040

Reference

Low Oil and Gas Resource

 High Coal Cost

GHG15

Low Coal Cost

High Oil and Gas Resource

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

U.S. average

West

Appalachia

Interior

History 2011 Projections

U.S. coal production varies across the AEO2013 cases, reflecting the effects of different assumptions about the costs of producing and transporting coal, the outlook for natural gas prices, 

and possible controls on GHG emissions (Figure 105). In general, assumptions that reduce the competitiveness of coal versus natural gas result in less coal production: in the High Coal 

Cost case as a result of significantly higher estimated costs to 

mine and transport coal, and in the High Oil and Gas Resource 

case as a result of lower natural gas production costs than in 

the Reference case. Similarly, actions to reduce GHG emissions 

can reduce the competiveness of coal, because its high carbon 

content can translate into a price penalty, in the form of GHG 

fees, relative to other fuels. Conversely, lower coal prices in the 

Low Coal Cost case and higher natural gas prices in the Low 

Oil and Gas Resource case improve the competitiveness of coal 

and lead to higher levels of coal production.

Of the cases shown in Figure 105, the most substantial decline 

in U.S. coal production occurs in the GHG15 case, where an 

economy-wide CO2 emissions price that rises to $53 per metric ton in 2040 leads to a 50-percent drop in coal production 

from the Reference case level in 2040. Across the remaining 

cases, variations range from 15 percent lower to 6 percent 

higher than production in the Reference case in 2020; and by 

2040, as the gap in coal prices widens over time, the range of 

differences increases to 24 percent below and 16 percent above 

the Reference case in the High Coal Cost and Low Coal Cost 

cases, respectively. In two additional GHG cases developed for 

AEO2013 (not shown in Figure 105), economy-wide CO2 allowance fees are assumed to increase to $36 per metric ton in 

the GHG10 case and $89 per metric ton in the GHG25 case 

in 2040, resulting in total coal production in 2040 that is 25 

percent lower and 72 percent lower, respectively, than in the 

Reference case.

Figure 105. U.S. total coal production in six cases, 

2011, 2020, and 2040 (quadrillion Btu)

In the AEO2013 Reference case, the average real minemouth 

price for U.S. coal increases by 1.4 percent per year, from $2.04 

per million Btu in 2011 to $3.08 in 2040, continuing the upward 

trend in coal prices that began in 2000 (Figure 106). A key factor 

underlying the higher coal prices in the projection is an expectation that coal mining productivity will continue to decline, but at 

slower rates than during the 2000s.

In the Appalachian region, the average minemouth coal price 

increases by 1.5 percent per year from 2011 to 2040. In addition to continued declines in coal mining productivity, the 

higher price outlook for the Appalachian region reflects a shift 

to higher-value coking coal, resulting from the combination 

of growing exports of coking coal and declining shipments of 

steam/thermal coal to domestic markets. Recent increases in 

the average price of Appalachian coal, from $1.31 per million Btu 

in 2000 to $3.33 per million Btu in 2011, in part as a result of 

significant declines in mining productivity over the past decade, 

have substantially reduced the competitiveness of Appalachian 

coal with coal from other regions.

In the Western and Interior coal supply regions, declines in mining productivity, combined with increasing production, lead to 

increases in the real minemouth price of coal, averaging 2.3 percent per year for the Western region and 1.2 percent per year for 

the Interior region from 2011 to 2040.

In two alternative coal cost cases developed for AEO2013, the 

average U.S. minemouth coal price in 2040 is as low as $1.70 

per million Btu in the Low Coal Cost case (45 percent below the 

Reference case) and as high as $6.20 per million Btu in the High 

Coal Cost case (101 percent higher than in the Reference case). 

Results for the two cases, which are based on different assumptions about mining productivity, labor costs, mine equipment 

costs, and coal transportation rates, are provided in Appendix D.

Figure 106. Average annual minemouth coal prices by 

region, 1990-2040 (2011 dollars per million Btu)
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013 87

Emissions from energy use

Concerns about future GHG policies affect 

builds of new coal-fired generating capacity

Energy-related carbon dioxide emissions 

remain below their 2005 level through 2040

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Coal-fired

generating

capacity

Flue gas

desulfurization

equipment

Dry sorbent

injection

systems

Reference

No GHG Concern

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

2005 2040

Petroleum

Natural gas

Coal

Electricity

Residential Commercial Industrial Transportation Electric

power

0

1980 2005 2040

4,771 5,999 5,691

Total energy-related 

carbon dioxide emissions

In the AEO2013 Reference case, the cost of capital for investments in GHG-intensive technologies is increased by 3 percentage points, primarily to reflect the behavior of electricity 

generators who must evaluate long-term investments across 

a range of generating technologies in an environment where 

future restrictions of GHG emissions are likely. The higher cost 

of capital is used to estimate the costs for new coal-fired power 

plants without carbon capture and storage (CCS) and for capital 

investment projects at existing coal-fired power plants (excluding CCS). The No GHG Concern case illustrates the potential 

impact on energy investments when the cost of capital is not 

increased for GHG-intensive technologies.

In the No GHG Concern case, a lower cost of capital leads to the 

addition of 26 gigawatts of new coal-fired capacity from 2012 

to 2040, up from 9 gigawatts in the Reference case (Figure 

107). Nearly all projected builds in the Reference case are plants 

already under construction. As a result, additions of natural gas, 

nuclear, and renewable generating capacity all are slightly lower 

in the No GHG Concern case than in the Reference case.

In addition to affecting builds of new generating capacity, removing the premium for the cost of capital also influences capital 

investment projects at existing coal-fired power plants. In the 

No GHG Concern case, the lower cost of capital results in some 

additional retrofits of flue gas desulfurization (FGD) equipment relative to the Reference case, and fewer retrofits of dry 

sorbent injection (DSI) systems, which are a less capital-intensive option than FGD for controlling emissions of acid gases. 

To comply with the requirements specified in the Mercury and 

Air Toxics Standards (MATS), the AEO2013 projections assume 

that coal-fired power plants must be equipped with either FGD 

equipment or DSI systems with full fabric filters.

Figure 107. Cumulative coal-fired generating capacity 

additions and environmental retrofits in two cases, 

2012-2040 (gigawatts)

On average, energy-related CO2 emissions in the AEO2013 

Reference case decline by 0.2 percent per year from 2005 to 

2040, as compared with an average increase of 0.9 percent 

per year from 1980 to 2005. Reasons for the decline include: 

an expected slow and extended recovery from the recession 

of 2007-2009; growing use of renewable technologies and 

fuels; automobile efficiency improvements; slower growth in 

electricity demand; and more use of natural gas, which is less 

carbon-intensive than other fossil fuels. In the Reference case, 

energy-related CO2 emissions in 2020 are 9.1 percent below 

their 2005 level. Energy-related CO2 emissions total 5,691 million metric tons in 2040, or 308 million metric tons (5.1 percent) below their 2005 level (Figure 108).

Petroleum remains the largest source of U.S. energy-related 

CO2 emissions in the projection, but its share falls to 38 percent 

in 2040 from 44 percent in 2005. CO2 emissions from petroleum use, mainly in the transportation sector, are 448 million 

metric tons below their 2005 level in 2040.

Emissions from coal, the second-largest source of energyrelated CO2 emissions, are 246 million metric tons below the 

2005 level in 2040 in the Reference case, and their share of 

total energy-related CO2 emissions declines from 36 percent 

in 2005 to 34 percent in 2040. The natural gas share of total 

CO2 emissions increases from 20 percent in 2005 to 28 percent in 2040, as the use of natural gas to fuel electricity generation and industrial applications increases. Emissions levels are 

sensitive to assumptions about economic growth, fuel prices, 

technology costs, and policies that are explored in many of the 

alternative cases completed for AEO2013.

Figure 108. U.S. energy-related carbon dioxide 

emissions by sector and fuel, 2005 and 2040 

(million metric tons)
88 U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013

Emissions from energy use

Power plant emissions of sulfur dioxide are 

reduced by further environmental controls

Nitrogen oxides emissions show little change 

from 2011 to 2040 in the Reference case

In the AEO2013 Reference case, sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions from the U.S. electric power sector fall from 4.4 million 

short tons in 2011 to a range between 1.2 and 1.7 million short 

tons in the 2016-2040 projection period. The reduction occurs 

in response to the MATS [142]. Although SO2 is not directly 

regulated by the MATS, the reductions are achieved as a result 

of acid gas limits that lead to the installation of FGD units or 

DSI systems, which also remove SO2. AEO2013 assumes that, 

in order to comply with MATS, coal-fired power plants must 

have one of the two technologies installed by 2016. Both technologies, which are used to reduce acid gas emissions regulated 

under MATS, also reduce SO2 emissions.

EIA assumes a 95-percent SO2 removal efficiency for FGD units 

and a 70-percent SO2 removal efficiency for DSI systems paired 

with baghouse fabric filters. AEO2013 also assumes that a baghouse fabric filter is required for all coal-fired plants in order to 

comply with the nonmercury metal emissions limits set forth by 

MATS [143, 144].

From 2011 to 2040, approximately 43 gigawatts of coal-fired 

capacity is retrofitted with FGD units in the Reference case, and 

another 50 gigawatts is retrofitted with DSI systems. In 2016, all 

operating coal-fired generation units larger than 25 megawatts 

are assumed to have either DSI or FGD systems installed. After a 

73-percent decrease from 2011 to 2016, SO2 emissions increase 

slowly from 2016 to 2040 (Figure 109) as total electricity generation from coal-fired power plants increases. The increase is 

relatively small, however, because overall growth in generation 

from coal is slow, and the required installations of FGD and DSI 

equipment limit SO2 emissions from plants in operation.

Figure 109. Sulfur dioxide emissions from electricity 

generation, 1990-2040 (million short tons)

Annual emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOX) from the electric 

power sector, which totaled 1.9 million short tons in 2011, range 

between 1.6 and 2.1 million short tons from 2011 to 2040 (Figure 

110). Annual NOX emissions from electricity generation dropped 

by 47 percent from 2005 to 2011 as a result of the implementation 

of the Clean Air Interstate Rule (CAIR), which led to year-round 

operation of advanced pollution control equipment (that under the 

NOX budget program operated during the summer season only) 

and to additional installations of NOX pollution control equipment.

In the AEO2013 Reference case, annual NOX emissions in 2040 

are 4 percent below the 2011 level, despite a 6-percent increase 

in annual electricity generation from coal-fired power plants 

over the period. The drop in emissions is primarily a result of 

CAIR, which established an annual cap-and-trade program for 

NOX emissions in 25 states and the District of Columbia. A 

slight rise in NOX emissions after 2020 corresponds to a projected recovery in coal-fired generation.

MATS does not have a direct effect on NOX emissions, because 

none of the potential technologies required to comply with 

MATS has a significant impact on NOX emissions. However, 

because MATS contributes to a reduction in coal-fired generation nationwide, it indirectly reduces NOX emissions from the 

power sector in states not affected by CAIR.

From 2011 to 2040, 15.4 gigawatts of coal-fired capacity is 

retrofitted with NOX controls in the AEO2013 Reference case. 

Coal-fired power plants can be retrofitted with three types of 

NOX control technologies: selective catalytic reduction (SCR), 

selective noncatalytic reduction (SNCR), or low-NOX burners, 

depending on the specific characteristics of the plant, including 

boiler configuration and the type of coal used. SCRs make up 

90 percent of the NOX controls installed in the Reference case, 

SNCRs 5 percent, and low-NOX burners 5 percent.

6.7

5.3

3.6

1.9 1.8 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.9

0

2

4

6

8

1990 2000 2005 2011 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

History Projections

Figure 110. Nitrogen oxides emissions from electricity 

generation, 1990-2040 (million short tons)

15.7

11.4

10.2

1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7

0

5

10

15

20

1990 2000 2005 2011 2016 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

4.4

History Projections
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013 89

Emissions from energy use

Energy-related carbon dioxide emissions are 

sensitive to potential policy changes

Carbon dioxide fee cases generally increase the 

use of natural gas for electricity generation

History Projections

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

High Oil and Gas Resource

Reference

$25 fee per metric ton

$15 fee

$10 fee

$25 fee

$15 fee

$10 fee

0

4,000

5,000

6,000

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

History Projections

High Oil and Gas Resource

Reference

Reference, $25 fee per metric ton

High Resource, $25 fee per metric ton

Reference, $10 fee

High Resource, $10 fee

Reference, $15 fee

High Resource, $15 fee

Although the AEO2013 Reference case assumes that current 

laws and regulations remain in effect through 2040, the potential impacts of a future fee on CO2 emissions are examined in 

three carbon-fee cases, starting at $10, $15, and $25 per metric 

ton CO2 in 2014 and rising by 5 percent per year annually thereafter. The three fee cases were combined with the Reference 

case and also, because of uncertainty about the growing role 

of natural gas in the U.S. energy landscape and how it might 

affect efforts to reduce GHG emissions, with the High Oil and 

Gas Resource case (Figure 111).

Emissions fees would have a significant impact on U.S. energyrelated CO2 emissions. They would encourage all energy producers and consumers to shift to lower-carbon or zero-carbon 

energy sources. Relative to 2005 emissions levels, energyrelated CO2 emissions are 14 percent, 19 percent, and 28 percent lower in 2025 in the $10, $15, and $25 fee cases using 

Reference case resources, respectively, and 17 percent, 28 percent, and 40 percent lower in 2040. When combined with High 

Oil and Gas Resource assumptions, the CO2 fees tend to lead 

to slightly greater emissions reductions in the near term and 

smaller reductions in the long term.

The alternative assumptions about natural gas resources have 

only small impacts on energy-related CO2 emissions in all the 

cases except the $25 fee cases. Although more abundant and 

less expensive natural gas in the High Oil and Gas Resource 

cases does lead to less coal use and more natural gas use, it also 

reduces the use of renewable and nuclear fuels and increases 

energy consumption overall. In the long run, the emissions 

reductions achieved by shifting from coal to natural gas are offset by the impacts of reduced use of renewables and nuclear 

power for electricity generation, and by higher overall levels of 

energy consumption.

Figure 111. Energy-related carbon dioxide emissions 

in two cases with three levels of emissions fees, 

2000-2040 (million metric tons)

The role of natural gas in the CO2 fee cases varies widely over 

time and, in addition, over the range of assumptions about natural gas resources. When CO2 fees are assumed to be introduced 

in 2014, natural gas-fired generation increases sharply. The role 

of natural gas in the CO2 fee cases begins declining between 

2025 and 2030, however, as power companies bring more new 

nuclear and renewable plants on line (Figure 112).

After accounting for about 50 percent of all U.S. electricity 

generation for many years, coal’s share has declined over the 

past few years because of growing competition from efficient 

natural gas-fired plants with access to low-cost natural gas. In 

the Reference case, the share of generation accounted for by 

coal falls from 42 percent in 2011 to 38 percent in 2025 and 35 

percent in 2040. Coal’s share falls even further in the CO2 fee 

cases, to a range between 6 percent and 31 percent in 2025 and 

between 1 percent and 24 percent in 2040.

As the fee for CO2 emissions increases over time, power companies reduce their use of coal and increase their use of nuclear 

power, renewables, and natural gas. The nuclear and renewable 

shares of total generation increase in most of the CO2 fee cases, 

particularly in the later years of the projections. In the Reference 

case, nuclear generation accounts for 20 percent of the total in 

2025 and 17 percent in 2040. In the CO2 fee cases, the nuclear 

share varies from 20 to 24 percent in 2025 and 18 to 37 percent 

in 2040. The renewable share of total generation in 2025 is 14 

percent in the Reference case, increasing to 16 percent in 2040. 

In the CO2 fee cases the renewable share is generally higher, 

between 15 percent and 21 percent in 2025 and between 17 percent and 31 percent in 2040.

Figure 112. Natural gas-fired electricity generation in 

six CO2 fee cases, 2000-2040 (billion kilowatthours)
90 U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013

Endnotes for Market trends

133. Unless otherwise noted, the term capacity in the discussion of electricity generation indicates utility, nonutility, 

and CHP capacity.

134. Costs are for the electric power sector only.

135. The levelized costs reflect the average of regional costs. 

For detailed discussion of levelized costs, see U.S. Energy 

Information Administration, “Levelized Cost of New Generation Resources in the Annual Energy Outlook 2013,” 

http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/electricity_generation.cfm.

136. Next-generation biofuels include pyrolysis oils, biomassderived Fisher-Tropsch liquids, and renewable feedstocks 

used for on-site production of diesel and gasoline.

137. xTL refers to liquid fuels that are created from biomass, as 

in biomass-to-liquids (BTL); from natural gas, as in GTL; 

and from coal, as in CTL. 

138. Permeability is a laboratory measurement of a rock’s ability to transmit liquid and gaseous fluids through its pore 

spaces. High-permeability sandstones have many large 

and well-connected pore spaces that readily transmit fluids, while low-permeability shales have smaller and fewer 

interconnected pore spaces that retard fluid flow. Laboratory measurements of rock permeability are stated in 

terms of darcies or millidarcies.

139. One option for balancing the mix of crudes might be to 

allow the export of domestically produced light crude in 

exchange for heavier crudes. Crude exports and swaps, 

however, are currently permitted only in limited cases and 

require a license from the Department of Commerce.

140. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, “EPA Finalizes 

2012 Renewable Fuel Standards,” EPA-420-F-11-044 

(Washington, DC: December 2011), http://www.epa.gov/

otaq/fuels/renewablefuels/documents/420f11044.pdf.

141. R. Schnepf and B.D. Yacobucci, Renewable Fuel Standard 

(RFS): Overview and Issues (Washington, DC: Congressional Research Service, January 23, 2012), http://www.fas.

org/sgp/crs/misc/R40155.pdf.

142. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, “Mercury and Air 

Toxics Standards,” http://www.epa.gov/mats.

143. Recent analysis performed by the EPA indicates that 

upgraded electrostatic precipitators may also enable coalfired power plants to meet the nonmercury metal emissions control requirement for MATS. This assumption was 

not included in AEO2013 but will be revisited in future AEOs.

144. U.S. Energy Information Administration, “Dry sorbent 

injection may serve as a key pollution control technology 

at power plants,” Today in Energy (March 16, 2012), http://

www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=5430.

Links current as of March 2013

124. The industrial sector includes manufacturing, agriculture, 

construction, and mining. The energy-intensive manufacturing sectors include food, paper, bulk chemicals, petroleum refining, glass, cement, steel, and aluminum.

125. These expenditures relative to GDP are not the energyshare of GDP, since expenditures include energy as an 

intermediate product. The energy-share of GDP corresponds to the share of value added due to domestic 

energy-producing sectors, which would exclude the value 

of energy as an intermediate product.

126. S.C. Davis, S.W. Diegel, and R.G. Boundy, Transportation 

Energy Databook: Edition 31, ORNL-6987 (Oak Ridge, TN: 

July 2012), Chapter 2, Table 2.1, “U.S. Consumption of 

Total Energy by End-Use Sector, 1973-2011.”

127. S.C. Davis, S.W. Diegel, and R.G. Boundy, Transportation Energy Databook: Edition 31, ORNL-6987 (Oak Ridge, 

TN: July 2012), Chapter 4, Table 4.6, “New Retail Sales 

of Trucks 10,000 Pounds GVWR and Less in the United 

States, 1970-2011.”

128. U.S. Department of Transportation, National Highway 

Safety Administration, “Summary of Fuel Economy Performance” (Washington, DC: October 2012), http://www.

nhtsa.gov/staticfiles/rulemaking/pdf/cafe/Oct2012_

Summary_Report.pdf.

129. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, “Light-Duty Vehicle 

Greenhouse Gas Emission Standards and Corporate Average Fuel Economy Standards; Final Rule,” Federal Register, Vol. 

75, No. 88 (Washington, DC: May 7, 2010), https://www.

federalregister.gov/articles/2010/05/07/2010-8159/

light-duty-vehicle-greenhouse-gas-emission-standardsand-corporate-average-fuel-economy-standards.

130. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and National 

Highway Traffic Safety Administration, “2017 and Later 

Model Year Light-Duty Vehicle Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Corporate Average Fuel Economy Standards; 

Final Rule,” Federal Register, Vol. 77, No. 199 (Washington, 

DC: October 15, 2012), https://www.federalregister.gov/

articles/2012/10/15/2012-21972/2017-and-later-modelyear-light-duty-vehicle-greenhouse-gas-emissions-andcorporate-average-fuel.

131. Light-duty vehicle fuel economy includes alternative-fuel 

vehicles and banked credits towards compliance.

132. The factors that influence decisionmaking on capacity 

additions include electricity demand growth, the need to 

replace inefficient plants, the costs and operating efficiencies of different generation options, fuel prices, state RPS 

programs, and the availability of federal tax credits for 

some technologies.
Comparison with

other projections

Energy Information Administration (EIA) and other contributors have endeavored to make these projections as objective, reliable, and 

useful as possible; however, they should serve as an adjunct to, not a substitute for, a complete and focused analysis of public policy 

initiatives. None of the EIA or any of the other contributors shall be responsible for any loss sustained due to reliance on the information 

included in this report.
92 U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013

Comparison with other projections

Only IHS Global Insight (IHSGI) produces a comprehensive energy projection with a time horizon similar to that of the Annual 

Energy Outlook 2013 (AEO2013). Other organizations, however, address one or more aspects of the U.S. energy market. The most 

recent projection from IHSGI, as well as others that concentrate on economic growth, international oil prices, energy consumption, 

electricity, natural gas, petroleum, and coal, are compared here with the AEO2013 Reference case.

1. Economic growth

The range of projected economic growth in the outlooks included in the comparison tends to be wider over the first 5 years 

of the projection than over a longer period, because the group of variables—such as population, productivity, and labor force 

growth—that influence long-run economic growth is smaller than the group of variables that affect projections of short-run 

growth. The average annual rate of growth of real gross domestic product (GDP) from 2011 to 2015 (in 2005 dollars) ranges 

from 2.2 percent to 2.9 percent (Table 8). From 2011 to 2025, the 14-year average annual growth rate ranges from 2.5 percent 

to 2.8 percent.

From 2011 to 2015, real GDP grows at a 2.5-percent average annual rate in the AEO2013 Reference case, lower than projected by 

the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), the Social Security Administration (SSA) (in The 2011 Annual Report of the Board of Trustees 

of the Federal Old-Age and Survivors Insurance and Federal Disability Insurance Trust Funds), Oxford Economic Group (OEG), and the 

Interindustry Forecasting Project at the University of Maryland (INFORUM) but higher than projected by Blue Chip Consensus 

(Blue Chip) and the Office of Management and Budget (OMB). The AEO2013 projection of GDP growth is similar to the average 

annual rate of 2.5 percent over the same period projected by IHSGI and by the International Energy Agency (IEA), in its November 

2012 World Energy Outlook Current Policies Scenario.

The average annual GDP growth of 2.6 percent in the AEO2013 Reference case from 2011 to 2025 is at the mid-range of the 

outlooks, with OMB, CBO, and the SSA projecting the strongest recovery from the 2007-2009 recession. OMB and CBO project 

average annual GDP growth from 2011 to 2023 of 2.8 percent and 2.7 percent, respectively. The SSA and OEG project annual 

average growth of 2.7 percent from 2011 to 2025. IEA projects growth at a rate similar to that in the AEO2013 Reference case from 

2011 to 2025—as do IHSGI and INFORUM—at 2.6 per year over the next 14 years. Blue Chip and ExxonMobil project growth at 

2.5 percent, or 0.1 percentage point lower than in the AEO2013 Reference case.

There are few public or private projections of GDP growth for the United States that extend to 2040. The AEO2013 Reference 

case projects 2.5-percent average annual GDP growth from 2011 to 2040, consistent with trends in labor force and productivity 

growth. IHSGI and INFORUM also project GDP growth averaging 2.5 percent per year from 2011 to 2040. The SSA, ExxonMobil, 

and IEA project a lower rate of 2.4 percent per year, while the OEG and ICF International (ICF) project a higher rate of 2.6 percent 

per year from 2011 to 2040.

Table 8. Comparisons of average annual economic growth projections, 2011-2040

Average annual percentage growth rates

Projection 2011-2015 2011-2025 2025-2040 2011-2040

AEO2013 (Reference case) 2.5 2.6 2.4 2.5

AEO2012 (Reference case)a 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.6

IHS Global Insight (August 2012) 2.5 2.6 2.5 2.5

OMB (January 2013)a 2.2 2.8 -- --

CBO (February 2013)a 2.6 2.7 -- --

INFORUM (November 2012) 2.6 2.6 2.4 2.5

Social Security Administration (August 2012) 2.9 2.7 2.2 2.4

IEA (2012)b 2.5 2.6 -- 2.4

Blue Chip Consensus (October 2012)a 2.4 2.5 -- --

ExxonMobil -- 2.5 2.2 2.4

ICF International -- -- -- 2.6

Oxford Economics Group (January 2013) 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.6

-- = not reported or not applicable.

a

OMB, CBO, and Blue Chip forecasts end in 2022, and growth rates cited are for 2011-2022. AEO2012 projections end in 2035, and growth rates 

cited are for 2011-2035.

b

IEA publishes U.S. growth rates for certain intervals: 2010-2015 growth is 2.5 percent, 2010-2020 growth is 2.6 percent, and 2010-2035 growth 

is 2.4 percent.
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013 93

Comparison with other projections

2. Oil prices

In AEO2013, oil prices are represented by spot prices for Brent crude. Prices rise in the Reference case from $111 per barrel in 2011 

to about $117 per barrel in 2025 and $163 per barrel in 2040 (Table 9). The price rise starts slowly, then accelerates toward the 

end of the projection period. In the Annual Energy Outlook 2012 (AEO2012) Reference case, where oil prices were represented by the 

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) spot price, prices rose more sharply in the early years and more slowly at the end of the projection 

period. AEO2013 also presents the annual average WTI spot price of light, low-sulfur crude oil delivered in Cushing, Oklahoma, 

and includes the U.S. annual average refiners’ acquisition cost (RAC) of imported crude oil, which is more representative of the 

average cost of all crude oils used by domestic refiners. In 2011, the WTI and Brent prices differed by $16 per barrel. In the AEO2013

Reference case, the gap closes to a difference of $2 per barrel in 2025, following resolution of transportation system constraints in 

the United States. In each of the other outlooks in the comparison, oil spot prices are based on either Brent or WTI prices, with the 

exception of IEA, which represents the international average of crude oil import prices.

Market volatility and different assumptions about the future of the world economy are reflected in the range of oil price projections 

for both the near and long term; however, most projections show oil prices rising over the entire projection period. The projections 

for 2025 range from $78 per barrel (WTI) to $137 per barrel (Brent) in 2025—a span of $59 per barrel—and from $81 per barrel 

(WTI) to $163 per barrel (Brent) in 2040—a span of $82 per barrel. The wide range underscores the uncertainty inherent in the 

projections. The range of the projections is encompassed in the range of the AEO2013 Low and High Oil Price cases, from $68 per 

barrel (WTI) to $173 per barrel (Brent) in 2025 and from $71 per barrel (WTI) to $213 per barrel (Brent) in 2035.

3. Total energy consumption

Four projections by other organizations—INFORUM, IHSGI, ExxonMobil, and IEA—include energy consumption by sector (Table 

10). To allow comparison with the IHSGI projection, the AEO2013 Reference case was adjusted to remove coal-to-liquids (CTL) 

heat and power, natural gas-to-liquids heat and power, biofuels heat and co-products, and natural gas feedstock use. To allow 

comparison with the ExxonMobil projection, electricity consumption in each sector was removed from the AEO2013 Reference 

case. To allow comparison with the IEA projections, the AEO2013 Reference case projections for the residential and commercial 

sectors were combined to produce a buildings sector projection. The IEA projections have a base year of 2010, as opposed to 2011 

in the other projections. The INFORUM and IEA projections extend only through 2035.

ExxonMobil includes a cost for carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in their projection, which helps to explain the lower level of 

consumption in their outlook. Although the IEA’s central case also includes a cost for CO2 emissions, its Current Policies Scenario 

(which assumes that no new policies are added to those in place in mid-2012) is used for comparison in this analysis, because 

it corresponds better with the assumptions in the AEO2013 Reference case. ExxonMobil and IEA show lower total energy 

consumption across all years in comparison with the AEO2013 Reference case. Total energy consumption is higher in all years of 

the IHSGI projection than in the AEO2013 Reference case but starts from a lower level in 2011.

The INFORUM projection of total energy consumption in 2035 is 2.4 quadrillion British thermal units (Btu) higher than the 

AEO2013 Reference case projection, with the transportation sector 2.4 quadrillion Btu higher, the buildings sector 1 quadrillion Btu 

higher, and the industrial sector 1 quadrillion Btu lower. For the transportation sector, the difference could be related to vehicle 

efficiency, as the INFORUM projection for motor gasoline consumption (2 quadrillion Btu lower than AEO2013) is comparable with 

the EIA projection in AEO2012, which did not include the efficiency standard for vehicle model years 2017 through 2025. Energy 

consumption growth in the INFORUM projection is weaker than projected in AEO2013 through 2020 but stronger after 2020.

IHSGI projects significantly higher electricity consumption for all sectors than in the AEO2013 Reference case, which helps to 

explain much of the difference in total energy consumption between the two projections. In the IHSGI projection, the electric 

power sector consumes 10.0 quadrillion Btu more energy in 2040 than in the AEO2013 Reference case. The greater use of 

electricity in the IHSGI projection, including 150 trillion Btu used in the transportation sector (more than double the amount in 

AEO2013), also results in higher electricity prices than in the AEO2013 Reference case.

Table 9. Comparisons of oil price projections, 2025, 2035, and 2040 (2011 dollars per barrel)

Projections

2011 2025 2035 2040

WTI Brent WTI Brent WTI Brent WTI Brent

AEO2013 (Reference case) 94.86 111.26 115.36 117.36 143.41 145.41 160.68 162.68

AEO2012 (Reference case) 94.82 -- 135.35 -- 148.03 -- -- --

Energy Ventures Analysis, Inc. (EVA) -- -- 78.18 -- 82.16 -- 87.43 --

IEA (Current Policies Scenario) -- 107.60 -- 135.70 -- 145.00 -- --

INFORUM -- 111.26 -- 136.77 -- 149.55 -- --

IHSGI 94.88 -- 93.05 -- 86.25 -- 81.20 --
94 U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013

Comparison with other projections

Total energy consumption declines in the ExxonMobil projection, primarily as a result of the inclusion of a tax on CO2 emissions, 

which is not considered in the AEO2013 Reference case. Energy consumption in the transportation and industrial sectors declines 

from 2011 levels in the ExxonMobil projection, based on expected policy changes and technology improvements.

Total energy consumption in the IEA projection is higher in 2035 than in 2010 because of increased consumption in the buildings 

sector, where an increase of 3.7 quadrillion Btu includes 3.1 quadrillion Btu of additional electricity demand. Energy consumption 

in the transportation and industrial sectors declines from 2020 to 2030 in the IEA projection, by less than 1 quadrillion Btu in each 

sector. IEA projects little change in energy use for those two sectors from 2030 to 2035, with industrial energy consumption 

Table 10. Comparisons of energy consumption by sector projections, 2025, 2035, and 2040 (quadrillion Btu)

Sector

AEO2013

Reference INFORUM IHSGI ExxonMobil IEA

2011

Residential 11.3 11.5 10.8 -- --

Residential excluding electricity 6.4 6.6 6.0 5.0 --

Commercial 8.6 8.6 8.5 -- --

Commercial excluding electricity 4.1 4.1 4.0 4.0 --

Buildings sector 19.9 20.1 19.3 -- 19.3a

Industrial 24.0 23.6 -- -- 23.7a

Industrial excluding electricity 20.7 20.2 -- 20.0 --

Lossesb 0.7 -- -- -- --

Natural gas feedstocks 0.5 -- -- -- --

Industrial removing losses and feedstocks 22.9 -- 21.7 -- --

Transportation 27.1 27.2 26.2 27.0 23.1a

Electric power 39.4 39.2 40.5 37.0 37.2a

Less: electricity demandc 12.7 12.8 12.7 -- 15.0a

Electric power losses 26.7 -- -- -- --

Total primary energy 97.7 97.3 -- 93.0 87.9a

Excluding lossesb and feedstocks 96.6 -- 95.0 -- --

2025

Residential 11.0 11.5 11.8 -- --

Residential excluding electricity 6.0 6.3 5.8 6.0 --

Commercial 9.2 9.5 9.8 -- --

Commercial excluding electricity 4.3 4.3 4.0 3.0 --

Buildings sector 20.3 21.0 21.6 -- --

Industrial 27.5 25.4 -- -- --

Industrial excluding electricity 23.4 21.8 -- 20.0 --

Lossesb 1.1 -- -- -- --

Natural gas feedstocks 0.6 -- -- -- --

Industrial removing losses and feedstocks 25.9 -- 23.6 -- --

Transportation 26.7 27.5 25.1 26.0 --

Electric power 42.1 42.6 49.0 39.0 --

Less: electricity demandc 14.1 14.0 16.1 -- --

Electric power losses 27.9 -- -- -- --

Total primary energy 102.3 102.5 -- 94.0 --

Excluding lossesb and feedstocks 100.7 -- 103.2 -- --

-- = not reported.

See notes at end of table.

(continued on next page)
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013 95

Comparison with other projections

declining very slowly and transportation energy consumption increasing slightly. IEA projects total energy consumption that is 

higher than ExxonMobil’s projection in 2035, but considerably lower than in the AEO2013 Reference case for both 2030 and 2035.

4. Electricity

Table 11 compares summary results from the AEO2013 Reference case with projections from EVA, IHSGI, INFORUM, ICF, and the 

National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). In 2025, total electricity sales range from a low of 4,095 billion kilowatthours 

(INFORUM) to a high of 4,712 billion kilowatthours (IHSGI) [145]. The AEO2013 Reference case projects 4,140 billion kilowatthours 

Table 10. Comparisons of energy consumption by sector projections, 2025, 2035, and 2040 (quadrillion Btu) 

(continued)

Sector

AEO2013

Reference INFORUM IHSGI ExxonMobil IEA

2035

Residential 11.4 11.9 12.5 -- --

Residential excluding electricity 5.7 6.1 5.7 5.0 --

Commercial 9.9 10.3 10.8 -- --

Commercial excluding electricity 4.4 4.5 4.1 3.0 --

Buildings sector 21.2 22.2 23.3 -- 23.0

Industrial 27.8 26.8 -- -- 24.2

Industrial excluding electricity 23.9 23.4 -- 19.0 --

Lossesb 1.4 -- -- -- --

Natural gas feedstocks 0.5 -- -- -- --

Industrial removing losses and feedstocks 25.9 -- 23.4 -- --

Transportation 26.4 28.8 22.9 25.0 22.7

Electric power 44.1 44.1 53.6 39.0 42.7

Less: electricity demandc 15.1 15.1 18.1 -- 18.6

Electric power losses 29.0 -- -- -- --

Total primary energy 104.4 106.8 -- 91.0 93.6

Excluding lossesb and feedstocks 102.6 -- 105.1 -- --

2040

Residential 11.6 -- 12.9 -- --

Residential excluding electricity 5.5 -- 5.7 5.0 --

Commercial 10.2 -- 11.1 -- --

Commercial excluding electricity 4.5 -- 4.1 3.0 --

Buildings sector 21.8 -- 24.0 -- --

Industrial 28.7 -- -- -- --

Industrial excluding electricity 24.8 -- -- 18.0 --

Lossesb 1.9 -- -- -- --

Natural gas feedstocks 0.4 -- -- -- --

Industrial removing losses and feedstocks 26.4 -- 23.5 -- --

Transportation 27.1 -- 22.0 25.0 --

Electric power 45.7 -- 55.9 39.0 --

Less: electricity demandc 15.7 -- 19.1 -- --

Electric power losses 30.0 -- -- -- --

Total primary energy 107.6 -- -- 89.0 --

Excluding lossesb and feedstocks 105.3 -- 106.3 -- --

-- = not reported.

a

IEA data are for 2010.

b

Losses in CTL and biofuel production.

c

Energy consumption in the sectors includes electricity demand purchases from the electric power sector, which are subtracted to avoid double 

counting in deriving total primary energy consumption.
96 U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013

Comparison with other projections

of total electricity sales in 2025, EVA projects 4,311 billion kilowatthours in 2025, and NREL projects 4,487 billion kilowatthours 

in 2026. In comparison with the other projections, IHSGI shows higher sales across all sectors in 2025, with the exception of the 

commercial sector (1,709 billion kilowatthours), where the EVA projection of 1,824 billion kilowatthours is 115 billion kilowatthours 

higher. The higher total in the commercial sector counterbalances EVA’s lower projection of 736 billion kilowatthours for the 

industrial sector, compared with 1,186 billion kilowatthours in the AEO2013 Reference case, 1,246 billion kilowatthours in the 

IHSGI projection, and 1,033 billion kilowatthours in the INFORUM projection.

Total electricity sales in 2035 in the IHSGI projection (5,316 billion kilowatthours) are higher than in the others: 4,406 billion 

kilowatthours in the INFORUM projection, 4,421 billion kilowatthours in the AEO2013 Reference case, 4,824 billion kilowatthours 

(in 2036) in the NREL projection, and 4,923 billion kilowatthours in the EVA projection. EVA projects the highest level of electricity 

sales in both the residential and commercial sectors in 2035 but a lower level of industrial sales in comparison with the other 

projections. Electricity sales in the industrial sector in the IHSGI projection are 1,332 billion kilowatthours in 2035, as compared 

with 1,142 billion kilowatthours in the AEO2013 Reference case, 978 billion kilowatthours in the INFORUM projection, and only 

515 billion kilowatthours in the EVA projection. Total electricity sales in 2040 are again led by the IHSGI projection, with 5,602 

billion kilowatthours, followed by 5,238 billion kilowatthours in the EVA projection, 4,608 billion kilowatthours in the AEO2013

Reference case, and 4,940 billion kilowatthours in the NREL projection.

Table 11. Comparisons of electricity projections, 2025, 2035, and 2040 (billion kilowatthours, except where noted)

Projection 2011

AEO2013 

Reference case

Other projections

EVA IHSGI INFORUM ICF NREL

2025 2026

Average end-use price 

(2011 cents per kilowatthour)a

9.9 9.5 -- 11.2 10.0 -- 10.4

Residential 11.7 11.6 -- 13.3 11.8 -- --

Commercial 10.2 9.7 -- 11.6 10.3 -- --

Industrial 6.8 6.5 -- 7.6 6.8 -- --

Total generation including CHP plus imports 4,130 4,612 4,570 5,207 4,296 4,860 4,693

Coal 1,730 1,727 1,726 1,605 -- -- 1,860

Petroleum 28 18 -- 33 -- -- 0

Natural gasb 1,000 1,252 1,387 1,732 -- -- 1,041

Nuclear 790 912 890 923 -- -- 794

Hydroelectric/otherc 544 681 567 852 -- -- 997

Net imports 37 22 -- 62 -- -- --

Electricity salesd 3,725 4,140 4,311 4,712 4,095 -- 4,487

Residential 1,424 1,488 1,750 1,756 1,536 -- --

Commercial/othere 1,326 1,466 1,824 1,709 1,526 -- --

Industrial 976 1,186 736 1,246 1,033 -- --

Capacity, including CHP (gigawatts)f 1,049 1,098 1,141 1,237 -- 1,135 1,146

Coal 318 276 255 278 -- 249 273

Oil and natural gas 463 500 568 555 -- 546 515

Nuclear 101 114 108 115 -- 106 102

Hydroelectric/otherg 167 208 210 289 -- 234 257

Cumulative capacity retirements from 2011 

(gigawatts)h

-- 82 151 83 -- 106 102

Coal -- 49 73 46 -- 73 33

Oil and natural gas -- 32 73 36 -- 29 69

Nuclear -- 1 3 1 -- 3 0

Hydroelectric/otherg -- 1 2 -- -- 0 0

-- = not reported.

See notes at end of table.

(continued on next page)
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013 97

Comparison with other projections

IHSGI, INFORUM, and the AEO2013 Reference case provide projections for average electricity prices by sector for 2025 and 2035. 

NREL provides a U.S. average electricity price projection for 2026 and 2036, but not by sector. IHSGI, NREL, and the AEO2013

Reference case provide projections for average electricity prices in 2040. Average electricity prices in the AEO2013 Reference 

case are 9.5 cents per kilowatthour in 2025, 10.1 cents per kilowatthour in 2035, and 10.8 cents per kilowatthour in 2040. 

Average electricity prices in the INFORUM projection are 10.0 cents per kilowatthour in 2025 and 10.5 cents per kilowatthour in 

2035 [146]. IHSGI projects considerably higher average electricity prices than either the AEO2013 Reference case or INFORUM, 

at 11.2 cents per kilowatthour in 2025, 11.9 cents per kilowatthour in 2035, and 12.2 cents per kilowatthour in 2040. NREL projects 

overall average electricity prices of 10.4 cents per kilowatthour in 2026, 11.7 cents per kilowatthour in 2036, and 12.0 cents per 

kilowatthour in 2040 (the NREL prices were provided in 2009 dollars).

In all the projections, average electricity prices by sector follow patterns similar to changes in the weighted average electricity 

price across all sectors (including transportation services). The lowest prices by sector in 2025 are in the AEO2013 Reference 

case (11.6 cents per kilowatthour for the residential sector, 9.7 cents per kilowatthour for the commercial sector, and 6.5 cents 

per kilowatthour for the industrial sector). The highest average electricity prices by sector in 2025 are in the IHSGI projection 

(13.3 cents per kilowatthour for the residential sector, 11.6 cents per kilowatthour for the commercial sector, and 7.6 cents per 

Table 11. Comparisons of electricity projections, 2025, 2035, and 2040 (billion kilowatthours, except where noted) 

(continued)

Projection 2011

AEO2013 

Reference case

Other projections

EVA IHSGI INFORUM ICF NREL

2035 2036

Average end-use price 

(2011 cents per kilowatthour)a

9.9 10.1 -- 11.9 10.5 -- 11.7

Residential 11.7 12.1 -- 14.1 12.2 -- --

Commercial 10.2 10.1 -- 12.3 10.6 -- --

Industrial 6.8 7.1 -- 8.1 7.1 -- --

Total generation including CHP plus imports 4,130 4,989 5,005 5,870 4,601 5,339 4,847

Coal 1,730 1,807 1,754 1,463 -- -- 1,703

Petroleum 28 18 -- 35 -- -- 0

Natural gasb 1,000 1,519 1,701 2,271 -- -- 1,730

Nuclear 790 875 839 953 -- -- 510

Hydroelectric/otherc 544 760 711 1,074 -- -- 904

Net imports 37 10 -- 73 -- -- --

Electricity salesd 3,725 4,421 4,923 5,316 4,406 -- 4,824

Residential 1,424 1,661 2,116 2,001 1,718 -- --

Commercial/othere 1,326 1,618 2,292 1,983 1,710 -- --

Industrial 976 1,142 515 1,332 978 -- --

Capacity, including CHP (gigawatts)f 1,049 1,206 1,263 1,420 -- 1,285 1,253

Coal 318 277 255 260 -- 245 238

Oil and natural gas 463 587 655 676 -- 665 654

Nuclear 101 109 103 120 -- 80 67

Hydroelectric/otherg 167 233 250 364 -- 295 294

Cumulative capacity retirements from 2011 

(gigawatts)h

-- 100 161 115 -- 133 243

Coal -- 49 77 68 -- 82 70

Oil and natural gas -- 44 74 38 -- 29 138

Nuclear -- 6 9 9 -- 21 35

Hydroelectric/otherg -- 1 2 -- -- 0 0

-- = not reported.

See notes at end of table.

(continued on next page)
98 U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013

Comparison with other projections

kilowatthour for the industrial sector). The AEO2013 Reference case, IHSGI, and NREL reflect similar price patterns for 2035 (or 

2036 for NREL) and 2040.

Total U.S. electricity generation plus imports in 2025 range from a low of 4,296 billion kilowatthours in the INFORUM projection 

to a high of 5,207 billion kilowatthours in the IHSGI projection. Within that range, the AEO2013 Reference case projects total 

generation of 4,612 billion kilowatthours. Coal continues to represent the largest share of generation in 2025 in the AEO2013

Reference case, which reports 1,727 billion kilowatthours from coal versus 1,252 billion kilowatthours from natural gas. By 

comparison, the natural gas share of total generation in the IHSGI projection in 2025 surpasses generation from coal by 126 

billion kilowatthours, with 1,732 billion kilowatthours of generation from natural gas and 1,605 billion kilowatthours from coal. 

IHSGI projects 1,646 billion kilowatthours of electricity generation from both coal and natural gas in 2023, with the natural 

Table 11. Comparisons of electricity projections, 2025, 2035, and 2040 (billion kilowatthours, except where noted) 

(continued)

Projection 2011

AEO2013 

Reference case

Other projections

EVA IHSGI INFORUM ICF NREL

2040

Average end-use price 

(2011 cents per kilowatthour)a

9.9 10.8 -- 12.2 -- -- 12.0

Residential 11.7 12.7 -- 14.4 -- -- --

Commercial 10.2 10.8 -- 12.5 -- -- --

Industrial 6.8 7.8 -- 8.3 -- -- --

Total generation including CHP plus imports 4,130 5,230 5,479 6,189 -- -- 4,913

Coal 1,730 1,829 1,740 1,418 -- -- 1,620

Petroleum 28 18 -- 36 -- -- 0

Natural gasb 1,000 1,582 2,330 2,506 -- -- 1,870

Nuclear 790 903 756 991 -- -- 442

Hydroelectric/otherc 544 879 653 1,164 -- -- 981

Net imports 37 18 -- 73 -- -- --

Electricity salesd 3,725 4,608 5,238 5,602 -- -- 4,940

Residential 1,424 1,767 2,303 2,116 -- -- --

Commercial/othere 1,326 1,697 2,528 2,109 -- -- --

Industrial 976 1,145 407 1,378 -- -- --

Capacity, including CHP (gigawatts)f 1,049 1,293 -- 1,495 -- -- 1,295

Coal 318 278 -- 251 -- -- 224

Oil and natural gas 463 632 -- 722 -- -- 691

Nuclear 101 113 -- 125 -- -- 58

Hydroelectric/otherg 167 270 -- 396 -- -- 322

Cumulative capacity retirements from 2011 

(gigawatts)h

-- 103 -- 128 -- -- 276

Coal -- 49 -- 80 -- -- 86

Oil and natural gas -- 46 -- 38 -- -- 146

Nuclear -- 7 -- 9 -- -- 44

Hydroelectric/otherg -- 1 -- -- -- -- 0

-- = not reported.

a

Average end-use price includes the transportation sector, NREL end-use prices expressed in 2009 dollars.

b

Includes supplemental gaseous fuels. For EVA, represents total oil and natural gas.

c

“Other” includes conventional hydroelectric, pumped storage, geothermal, wood, wood waste, municipal waste, other biomass, solar and wind 

power, batteries, chemicals, hydrogen, pitch, purchased steam, sulfur, petroleum coke, and miscellaneous technologies.

d

Electricity sales for EVA and INFORUM reflect the sum of the individual sector level sales.

e

“Other” includes sales of electricity to government and other transportation services.

f

AEO2013 capacity is net summer capability, including CHP plants and end-use generators. g

“Other” includes conventional hydroelectric, geothermal, wood, wood waste, all municipal waste, landfill gas, other biomass, solar, wind, pumped 

storage, and fuel cells.

h

IHSGI cumulative capacity retirements are calculated from annual totals. AEO2013 retirements are for electric power sector only.
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013 99

Comparison with other projections

gas total exceeding that for coal in 2024 and beyond as a result of the assumed implementation of a carbon tax in the IHSGI 

projection. Conversely, coal continues to represent the largest share of generation in the AEO2013 Reference case in 2035—1,807 

billion kilowatthours as compared with 1,519 billion kilowatthours from natural gas. The AEO2013 Reference case is based on 

current regulations and policies and does not assume a carbon tax. In 2035, the natural gas share of total generation in the IHSGI 

projection exceeds generation from coal by 808 billion kilowatthours. In the AEO2013 Reference case, coal continues to represent 

the largest share of generation in 2040 at 1,829 billion kilowatthours, compared with 1,582 billion kilowatthours from natural gas. 

In comparison, the natural gas share of total generation in 2040 in the IHSGI projection widens its lead over coal by 1,088 billion 

kilowatthours. In the EVA projection, coal is outpaced by natural gas as a share of total generation in 2040, with 2,330 billion 

kilowatthours from natural gas and 1,740 billion kilowatthours from coal [147].

Projections for electricity generation from U.S. nuclear power plants in 2025 range from a low of 794 billion kilowatthours (NREL, 

in 2026) to a high of 923 billion kilowatthours in the IHSGI projection. NREL projects a steady decline in nuclear generation, from 

794 billion kilowatthours in 2025 to 510 billion kilowatthours in 2036 and 442 billion kilowatthours in 2040, due to significant 

plant retirements. For 2035, the AEO2013 Reference case projects a drop in nuclear generation from the 2025 level, to 875 billion 

kilowatthours, as a result of capacity retirements. In contrast, nuclear generation increases to 953 billion kilowatthours in 2035 

in the IHSGI projection. The AEO2013 Reference case shows nuclear generation rebounding to 903 billion kilowatthours in 2040, 

as compared with 991 billion kilowatthours in the IHSGI projection.

Total generating capacity by fuel in 2025 (including combined heat and power [CHP]) is fairly similar across the projections, 

ranging from a low of 1,098 gigawatts in the AEO2013 Reference case to a high of 1,237 gigawatts in the IHSGI projection. IHSGI 

projects slightly more growth in total generating capacity due to what appears to be a much higher demand projection. Natural 

gas- and oil-fired capacity combined is projected to total 555 gigawatts in 2025 in the IHSGI projection, compared with 500 

gigawatts in the AEO2013 Reference case and a maximum of 568 gigawatts in the EVA projection. In all the projections, the 

hydroelectric/other category includes generation from both hydroelectric and nonhydroelectric renewable resources. In all 

the projections, hydroelectric capacity remains essentially unchanged, with almost all growth attributable to nonhydroelectric 

renewable resources. Hydroelectric/other capacity is the highest in 2025 in the IHSGI outlook at 289 gigawatts, compared with 

257 gigawatts in the NREL projection (for 2026), 234 gigawatts in the ICF projection, 210 gigawatts in the EVA projection, and 208 

gigawatts in the AEO2013 Reference case.

Both the IHSGI and NREL projections reflect lower levels of coal-fired generating capacity in 2040, with 251 gigawatts projected 

by IHSGI and 224 gigawatts by NREL. In comparison, natural gas- and oil-fired capacity (again dominated by natural gas-fired 

generating capacity) and hydroelectric/other capacity (dominated by nonhydroeletric renewable capacity) are projected to 

increase from 2025 levels. IHSGI projects 722 gigawatts of natural gas- and oil-fired capacity and 396 gigawatts of hydroelectric/

other capacity in 2040. NREL projects 691 gigawatts of natural gas- and oil-fired capacity and 322 gigawatts of hydroelectric/

other capacity in 2040. The AEO2013 Reference case projects 632 gigawatts of natural gas- and oil-fired capacity and 270 

gigawatts of hydroelectric/other capacity in 2040.

Cumulative capacity retirements from 2011 through 2025 range from 151 gigawatts in the EVA projection to 82 gigawatts in 

the AEO2013 Reference case. The majority of the retirements in the IHSGI, ICF, and AEO2013 Reference case projections from 

2011 to 2025 are attributed to coal-fired capacity. In the EVA and ICF outlooks, 73 gigawatts of coal-fired capacity is retired 

from 2011 to 2025. Over the same period, 46 gigawatts of coal-fired capacity is retired in the IHSGI outlook and 49 gigawatts in 

the AEO2013 Reference case. The NREL projection assumes 33 gigawatts of coal-fired capacity retirements from 2011 to 2026. 

EVA projects 73 gigawatts of oil- and natural gas-fired capacity retirements between 2011 and 2025, as compared with the ICF, 

AEO2013 Reference case, and IHSGI projections, which range between 29 gigawatts and 36 gigawatts over the same period. NREL 

projects 69 gigawatts of oil- and natural gas-fired retirements through 2026. With the exception of EVA and ICF, all the capacity 

retirements greater than 1 gigawatt between 2011 and 2025 in the outlooks are attributed to coal, oil, and natural gas capacity. 

EVA and ICF both project 3 gigawatts of nuclear retirements by 2025, while EVA projects 2 gigawatts of hydroelectric/other 

capacity retirements for the same period.

Cumulative capacity retirements through 2035 range from a high of 161 gigawatts in the EVA projection to a low of 100 gigawatts 

in the AEO2013 Reference case. Coal-fired capacity represents a large portion of the cumulative retirements from 2011 to 2035, 

with ICF projecting 82 gigawatts, EVA 77 gigawatts, IHSGI 68 gigawatts, and the AEO2013 Reference case 49 gigawatts. The 

AEO2013 Reference case projects no retirements of coal-fired capacity from 2025 to 2035. Over the same period, EVA projects 

only 4 gigawatts, ICF 9 gigawatts, and IHSGI 22 gigawatts. Cumulative retirements of oil- and natural gas-fired capacity from 2011 

to 2035 total 44 gigawatts in the AEO2013 Reference case and 74 gigawatts in the EVA projection. NREL projects cumulative totals 

of 70 gigawatts and 138 gigawatts of retirements for coal-fired capacity and for oil- and natural gas-fired capacity, respectively, 

from 2011 to 2036. EVA and the AEO2013 Reference case project cumulative nuclear capacity retirements of 9 gigawatts and 

6 gigawatts, respectively, from 2011 to 2035, and IHSGI projects 21 gigawatts of cumulative nuclear retirements over the same 

period. NREL projects 35 gigawatts of cumulative nuclear retirements from 2011 to 2036.
100 U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013

Comparison with other projections

5. Natural gas

Projections for natural gas consumption, production, imports, and prices differ significantly among the outlooks compared in 

Table 12. The variations result, in large part, from differences in underlying assumptions. For example, the AEO2013 Reference case 

assumes that current laws and regulations are unchanged through the projection period, whereas some of the other projections 

Table 12. Comparisons of natural gas projections, 2025, 2035, and 2040 (trillion cubic feet, except where noted) 

Projection 2011

AEO2013 

Reference 

case

Other projections

IHSGI EVA ICF ExxonMobil INFORUM

2025

Dry gas productiona 23.00 28.59 32.29 29.86b 32.39 -- 26.26

Net imports 1.95 -1.58 -1.45 1.05 -0.63 -- --

Pipeline 1.67 -0.52 -- 2.21 0.60 -- --

LNG 0.28 -1.06 -- -1.16 -1.23 -- --

Consumption 24.37 26.87 30.87 31.49 30.34c 29.00c 23.61d

Residential 4.72 4.44 4.58 4.98 5.05 7.00e 4.84

Commercial 3.16 3.35 3.23 3.33 3.01 -- 3.42

Industrialf 6.77 7.82 7.31 8.23 8.79 9.00 7.07

Electricity generatorsg 7.60 8.45 12.57 11.75 10.83 13.00 8.28

Othersh 2.11 2.81 3.19 3.20 2.66 0.00i --

Henry Hub spot market price 

(2011 dollars per million Btu) 3.98 4.87 4.39 6.34 5.02 -- --

End-use prices 

(2011 dollars per thousand cubic feet)

Residential 11.05 12.97 11.16 -- 11.51 -- --

Commercial 9.04 10.43 9.27 -- 9.50 -- --

Industrialj 5.00 6.29 6.42 -- 5.88 -- --

Electricity generators 4.87 5.70 4.89 -- 5.85 -- --

2035

Dry gas productiona 23.00 31.35 36.07 31.44b 35.46 -- 27.91

Net imports 1.95 -2.55 -1.18 2.62 -0.72 -- --

Pipeline 1.67 -1.09 -- 3.78 0.50 -- --

LNG 0.28 -1.46 -- -1.16 -1.22 -- --

Consumption 24.37 28.71 34.90 34.67 33.14c 30.00c 24.45d

Residential 4.72 4.24 4.54 4.96 5.02 7.00e 4.72

Commercial 3.16 3.51 3.30 3.47 2.84 -- 3.57

Industrialf 6.77 8.38 6.85 8.61 9.01 8.00 6.94

Electricity generatorsg 7.60 9.44 16.15 13.98 13.36 15.00 9.23

Othersh 2.11 3.68 4.06 3.65 2.91 1.00i --

Henry Hub spot market price 

(2011 dollars per million Btu) 3.98 6.32 4.98 8.00 6.21 -- --

End-use prices 

(2011 dollars per thousand cubic feet)

Residential 11.34 15.32 11.58 -- 12.28 -- --

Commercial 9.28 12.26 9.78 -- 10.38 -- --

Industrialj 5.13 7.82 7.02 -- 6.98 -- --

Electricity generators 5.00 7.32 5.48 -- 7.03 -- --

-- = not reported.

See notes at end of table.

(continued on next page)
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013 101

Comparison with other projections

include assumptions about anticipated policy developments over the next 25 years. In particular, the AEO2013 Reference case does 

not incorporate any future changes in policy directed at carbon emissions or other environmental issues, whereas ExxonMobil and 

some of the other outlooks include explicit assumptions about policies aimed at reducing carbon emissions.

IHSGI and ICF project large increases in natural gas production and consumption over the projection period. IHSGI projects 

that, as production increases, prices will remain low and U.S. consumers, particularly in the electric power sector, will continue 

to benefit from an abundance of relatively inexpensive natural gas. In contrast, ICF projects that prices will rise at a more rapid 

rate than in the IHSGI projection. EVA projects growth in natural gas production, but at lower rates than IHSGI and ICF. Both 

EVA and ExxonMobil also project strong growth in natural gas consumption in the electric power sector through 2035. EVA 

differs from the others, however, by projecting strong growth in natural gas consumption despite a rise in natural gas prices to 

$8.00 per million Btu in 2035. Timing of the growth in consumption is somewhat different between the ExxonMobil projection 

and the other outlooks. ExxonMobil expects consumption to increase only through 2025, after which it remains relatively flat. 

The AEO2013 Reference case projects a smaller increase in natural gas consumption for electric power generation than in the 

other outlooks, with additional natural gas production allowing for a sharp increase in net exports, particularly as liquefied 

natural gas (LNG). The INFORUM projection shows a smaller rise in production and consumption of natural gas than in any of 

the other projections.

Table 12. Comparisons of natural gas projections, 2025, 2035, and 2040 (trillion cubic feet, except where noted) 

(continued)

Projection 2011

AEO2013 

Reference 

case

Other projections

IHSGI EVA ICF ExxonMobil INFORUM

2040

Dry gas productiona 23.00 33.14 37.56 -- -- -- --

Net imports 1.95 -3.55 -0.95 -- -- -- --

Pipeline 1.67 -2.09 -- -- -- -- --

LNG 0.28 -1.46 -- -- -- -- --

Consumption 24.37 29.54 36.61 -- -- 30.00c --

Residential 4.72 4.14 4.52 -- -- 7.00e --

Commercial 3.16 3.60 3.29 -- -- -- --

Industrialf 6.77 7.90 6.68 -- -- 8.00 --

Electricity generatorsg 7.60 9.50 17.72 -- -- 15.00 --

Othersh 2.11 4.40 4.40 -- -- 1.00i --

Henry Hub spot market price 

(2011 dollars per million Btu) 3.98 7.83 5.39 -- -- -- --

End-use prices 

(2011 dollars per thousand cubic feet)

Residential 11.05 16.74 11.81 -- -- -- --

Commercial 9.04 13.52 10.02 -- -- -- --

Industrialj 5.00 9.09 7.32 -- -- -- --

Electricity generators 4.87 8.55 5.83 -- -- -- --

-- = not reported.

Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. 

a

Does not include supplemental fuels.

b

Lower 48 only.

c

Does not include lease, plant, and pipeline fuel and fuel consumed in natural gas vehicles.

d

Does not include lease, plant, and pipeline fuel.

e

Natural gas consumed in the residential and commercial sectors.

f

Includes consumption for industrial combined heat and power (CHP) plants and a small number of industrial electricity-only plants, and natural 

gas-to-liquids heat/power and production; excludes consumption by nonutility generators.

g

Includes consumption of energy by electricity-only and combined heat and power (CHP) plants whose primary business is to sell electricity, or 

electricity and heat, to the public. Includes electric utilities, small power producers, and exempt wholesale generators.

h

Includes lease, plant, and pipeline fuel and fuel consumed in natural gas vehicles.

i

Fuel consumed in natural gas vehicles only. 

j

The 2011 industrial natural gas price for IHSGI is $6.11.
102 U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013

Comparison with other projections

Production

All the outlooks shown in Table 12 project increases in natural gas production from the 2011 production level of 23.0 trillion cubic 

feet. IHSGI projects the largest increase, to 36.1 trillion cubic feet in 2035—13.1 trillion cubic feet or 57 percent more than the 2011 

levels—with most of the increase coming in the near term (9.3 trillion cubic feet from 2011 to 2025). An additional 1.5 trillion cubic 

feet of natural gas production is added from 2035 to 2040. In the ICF projection, natural gas production grows by 12.5 trillion 

cubic feet over the period from 2011, to 35.5 trillion cubic feet in 2035. More than one-half of the increase (6.5 trillion cubic feet) 

occurs before 2020. INFORUM projects the smallest increase in natural gas production, at only 4.9 trillion cubic feet from 2011 to 

the 2035 total of 27.9 trillion cubic feet.

The AEO2013 Reference case and EVA project more modest growth in natural gas production. In the AEO2013 Reference case and 

EVA projections, natural gas production grows to 31.4 trillion cubic feet in 2035, an increase of 8.4 trillion cubic feet from 2011 

levels. The AEO2013 Reference case and EVA projections show slower growth in natural gas production from 2011 to 2025, at 5.6 

trillion cubic feet and 6.9 trillion cubic feet, respectively. Although the AEO2013 Reference case shows the least aggressive nearterm growth in natural gas production, it shows the strongest growth from 2025 to 2035 among the projections, with another 

increase of 1.8 trillion cubic feet from 2035 to 2040.

Net imports/exports

Differences among the projections for natural gas production generally coincide with differences in total natural gas consumption 

or net imports/exports. EVA projects positive growth in net imports throughout the projection period, driven by strong growth 

in natural gas consumption. Although the EVA projection shows significant growth in pipeline imports, it shows no growth in net 

LNG exports. In contrast, the IHSGI, ICF, and AEO2013 Reference case projections show net exports of natural gas starting on or 

before 2020. The AEO2013 Reference case projects the largest increase in net exports of natural gas, with net pipeline exports 

increasing alongside steady growth in net LNG exports. In the ICF projection, the United States becomes a net exporter of natural 

gas by 2020 but remains a net importer of pipeline through 2035. Combined net exports of natural gas grow to 0.7 trillion cubic 

feet in 2035 in the ICF projection, with all the growth accounted for by LNG exports, which increase by 1.5 trillion cubic feet from 

2011 to 2035. IHSGI projects a U.S. shift from net importer to net exporter of natural gas after 2017, with net exports declining 

after 2024.

Consumption

All the projections show total natural gas consumption growing throughout the projection periods, and most of them expect 

the largest increases in the electric power sector. IHSGI projects the greatest growth in natural gas consumption for electric 

power generation, driven by relatively low natural gas prices, followed by ExxonMobil and EVA, with somewhat higher projections 

for natural gas prices. The ICF projection shows less growth in natural gas consumption for electric power generation, despite 

lower natural gas prices, than in the EVA projection. In the AEO2013 Reference case and INFORUM projections, natural gas 

consumption for electric power generation is somewhat less than in the other outlooks. Some of that variation may be the result 

of differences in assumptions about potential fees on carbon emissions. For example, the ExxonMobil outlook assumes a tax on 

carbon emissions, whereas the AEO2013 Reference case does not.

Projections for natural gas consumption in the residential and commercial sectors are similar in the outlooks, with expected 

levels of natural gas use remaining relatively stable over time. The AEO2013 Reference case projects the lowest level of residential 

and commercial natural gas consumption, largely as a result of increases in equipment efficiencies, with projected consumption 

in those sectors falling by 0.1 trillion cubic feet from 2011 to 2040, to a level slightly below those projected by IHSGI and ICF. 

ExxonMobil projects a significant one-time decrease of 1.0 trillion cubic feet from 2020 to 2025.

The largest difference among the outlooks for natural gas consumption is in the industrial sector, where definitional differences 

can make accurate comparisons difficult. ExxonMobil and the AEO2013 Reference case both project increases in natural gas 

consumption in the industrial sector from 2011 to 2040 that are greater than 1.0 trillion cubic feet, with most of the growth in the 

AEO2013 Reference case occurring from 2015 to 2020. ICF projects the largest increase in industrial natural gas consumption, 

at 2.2 trillion cubic feet from 2011 to 2035, followed by EVA’s projection of 1.8 trillion cubic feet over the same period. Although 

ExxonMobil projects a significant one-time decrease in industrial natural gas consumption—1.0 trillion cubic feet from 2025 to 

2030—its projected level of industrial consumption in 2025, at 9.0 trillion cubic feet, is higher than in any of the other projections. 

Despite ExxonMobil’s projected decrease in industrial natural gas consumption from 2025 to 2030, its projection for 2030 (8.0 

trillion cubic feet) is second only to EVA’s projection of 8.4 trillion cubic feet. IHSGI and INFORUM show modest increases in 

industrial natural gas consumption from their 2011 levels, to 6.9 trillion cubic feet in 2035 in both outlooks. Projected industrial 

natural gas consumption declines in the IHSGI projection after 2035, to 6.7 trillion cubic feet in 2040.

Prices

Only four of the outlooks included in Table 12 provide projections for Henry Hub natural gas spot prices. EVA shows the highest 

Henry Hub prices in 2035 and IHSGI the lowest. In the IHSGI projection, Henry Hub prices remain low through 2035, when they 

reach $4.98 per million Btu, compared with $3.98 per million Btu in 2011. Natural gas prices to the electric power sector rise from 

$4.87 per thousand cubic feet in 2011 to $5.47 per thousand cubic feet in 2035 in the IHSGI projection. The low Henry Hub prices 
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013 103

Comparison with other projections

in the IHSGI projection are supported by an abundant supply of relatively inexpensive natural gas, with only a small increase in 

net exports in comparison with the increase in the AEO2013 Reference case. EVA, in contrast, shows the Henry Hub price rising 

to a much higher level of $8.00 per million Btu in 2035, apparently as a result of stronger growth in natural gas consumption, 

particularly for electric power generation, and a lower level of natural gas exports. Indeed, the EVA outlook shows the U.S. 

remaining a net importer of natural gas through 2035.

Henry Hub natural gas prices in the ICF and AEO2013 Reference case projections for 2035—at $6.21 per million Btu and $6.32 

per million Btu, respectively—fall within the price range bounded by IHSGI and EVA. In the AEO2013 Reference case, commercial, 

electric power, and industrial natural gas prices all rise by between $2 and $3 per thousand cubic feet from 2011 to 2035, while 

residential prices rise by $3.88 per thousand cubic feet over the same period. The residential sector is also the only sector for 

which the AEO2013 Reference case projects a decline in natural gas consumption to below 2011 levels in 2035. ICF projects a 

much smaller increase in delivered natural gas prices for the commercial, industrial, and electric power sectors, with prices rising 

to more than $2 per thousand cubic feet above 2011 levels by 2035 only in the electric power sector. With smaller price increases, 

ICF projects a much larger increase for natural gas consumption in the electric power and industrial sectors from 2011 to 2035 

than in the AEO2013 Reference case.

6. Liquid fuels

In the AEO2013 Reference case, the Brent crude oil spot price (in 2011 dollars) increases to $117 per barrel in 2025, $145 per barrel 

in 2035, and $163 per barrel in 2040 (Table 13). Prices are higher earlier in the INFORUM and IEA projections but lower in the 

later years, ranging from $136 per barrel in 2025 to $150 per barrel in 2035. In the AEO2013 Reference case, the U.S. imported 

RAC for crude oil (in 2011 dollars) increases to $113 per barrel in 2025, $139 per barrel in 2035, and $155 per barrel in 2040. 

RAC prices in the INFORUM projection are higher, ranging from $126 per barrel in 2025 to $138 per barrel in 2035. EVA and 

ExxonMobil did not provide projections for Brent or RAC crude oil prices.

In the AEO2013 Reference case, domestic crude oil production increases from about 5.7 million barrels per day in 2011 to 6.8 

million barrels per day in 2025, then declines to about 6.3 million barrels per day in 2035 and 6.1 million barrels per day in 2040. 

Overall, projected crude oil production in 2035 is more than 10 percent higher than the 2011 total. The INFORUM projection 

shows a considerable increase in crude oil production, to 9.5 million barrels per day in 2035. Similarly, the EVA projection shows 

crude oil production increasing consistently to 8.5 million barrels per day in 2035. The IHSGI projection is closer to the AEO2013

Reference case, with domestic crude oil production reaching 6.4 million barrels per day in 2035. Similar to the AEO2013 Reference 

case, all the outlooks assume continued significant growth in crude oil production from non-OPEC countries, specifically in North 

America from tight oil formations.

Total net imports of crude oil and other liquids in the AEO2013 Reference case increase from 8.6 million barrels per day in 2011 

to 7.0 million barrels per day in 2025 and remain at that level through the remainder of the projection. The INFORUM projection 

is similar, at 7.1 million barrels per day in 2025 and 7.4 million barrels per day in 2035. In the IHSGI projection, however, total net 

imports fall dramatically, to approximately 4.7 million barrels per day in 2035 and around 4.1 million in 2040. IHSGI projects 

efficiency improvements that would decrease total U.S. demand for liquids and lessen the need for imports.

Biofuel production on a crude oil equivalent basis increases to about 1.1 million barrels per day in both 2025 and in 2035 and to 

more than 1.3 million barrels per day in 2040 in the AEO2013 Reference case. IHSGI projects biofuel production of 1.2 million 

barrels per day in 2025. The IHSGI projection assumes that technology hurdles and economic factors limit the growth of U.S. 

biofuel production to only a marginal share of total energy supply. IHSGI projects 1.4 million barrels per day of biofuel production 

in 2035 and a similar level in 2040. The EVA, INFORUM, IEA, and ExxonMobil outlooks do not include biofuels production.

Prices for both diesel fuel and gasoline increase through 2040 in the AEO2013 Reference case projection, with diesel prices higher 

than gasoline prices. INFORUM projects increasing gasoline prices and decreasing diesel prices, so that in 2035 the gasoline price 

is higher than the diesel price. IHSGI projects falling prices for both gasoline and diesel fuel, with 2040 prices for gasoline more 

than $1.00 per gallon lower and for diesel fuel prices $2.00 per gallon lower than projected in the AEO2013 Reference case. The 

EVA, IEA, and ExxonMobil projections do not include delivered fuel prices.

7. Coal

The AEO2013 Reference case projects the highest levels of total coal production and prices in comparison with other coal outlooks 

available from EVA, ICF, IHSGI, INFORUM, the IEA’s World Energy Outlook, and ExxonMobil. Total consumption in AEO2013 is also 

higher than in the other outlooks, except for INFORUM and ICF, whose consumption projections for 2035 are 2 percent and 5 

percent higher, respectively, than projected in the AEO2013 Reference case (Table 14).

The detailed assumptions that underlie the various projections are not generally available, although there are some important 

known differences that contribute to the differences among the outlooks. For instance, EVA and ICF assume the implementation 

of new regulations for cooling water intake and coal combustion residuals; ExxonMobil, which has the lowest projection of coal 

consumption, assumes a carbon tax; and ICF also includes a carbon cap-and-trade program beginning in 2023. Because those 

policies are not current law, the AEO2013 Reference case excludes them, which contributes to the lower coal consumption 
104 U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013

Comparison with other projections

Table 13. Comparisons of liquids projections, 2025, 2035, and 2040 (million barrels per day, except where noted)

Projection 2011

AEO2013 

Reference case EVA INFORUMa IEAb,c ExxonMobila IHSGIa

2025

Average U.S. imported RAC 

(2011 dollars per barrel)

102.65 113.48 -- 126.18 -- -- 91.38

Brent spot price 

(2011 dollars per barrel)

111.26 117.36 78.18 136.77 135.70c -- --

U.S. WTI crude oil price 

(2011 dollars per barrel)

94.86 115.36 -- -- -- -- 93.05

Domestic production 7.88 9.96 12.08 -- -- -- 9.52

Crude oil 5.67 6.79 8.44 8.57 -- -- 6.86

Alaska 0.57 0.35 0.36 -- -- -- --

Natural gas liquids 2.22 3.17 3.64 -- -- -- 2.66

Total net imports 8.58 7.01 -- 7.08 -- -- 5.98

Crude oil 8.89 7.05 -- 7.08 -- -- 7.36

Products -0.30 -0.04 -- -- -- -- -1.38

Liquids consumption 18.95 19.50 -- 18.62 -- 19.04 17.59

Net petroleum import share of 

liquids supplied (percent)

44 37 -- -- -- -- 33

Biofuel production 0.97 1.08 -- -- -- -- 1.18

Transportation product prices 

(2011 dollars per gallon)

Gasoline 3.45 3.49 -- 3.97 -- -- 3.17

Diesel 3.58 3.97 -- 4.00 -- -- 3.34

2035

Average U.S. imported RAC 

(2011 dollars per barrel)

102.65 138.70 -- 137.97 -- -- 84.51

Brent spot price 

(2011 dollars per barrel)

111.26 145.41 82.16 149.55 145.00c -- --

U.S. WTI crude oil price 

(2011 dollars per barrel)

94.86 143.41 -- -- -- -- 86.25

Domestic production 7.88 9.17 12.42 -- -- -- 9.31

Crude oil 5.67 6.26 8.50 9.49 -- -- 6.43

Alaska 0.57 0.35 0.00 -- -- -- --

Natural gas liquids 2.22 2.91 3.92 -- -- -- 2.88

Total net imports 8.58 7.00 -- 7.40 -- -- 4.67

Crude oil 8.89 7.37 -- 7.40 -- -- 7.03

Products -0.30 -0.37 -- -- -- -- -2.36

Liquids consumption 18.95 18.86 -- 19.24 15.14 18.01 16.07

Net petroleum import share of 

liquids supplied (percent)

44 36 -- -- -- -- 28

Biofuel production 0.97 1.13 -- -- -- -- 1.39

Transportation product prices 

(2011 dollars per gallon)

Gasoline 3.45 3.94 -- 4.14 -- -- 2.93

Diesel 3.58 4.55 -- 4.06 -- -- 3.06

-- = not reported.

See notes at end of table.

(continued on next page)
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013 105

Comparison with other projections

projections in many of the other outlooks relative to AEO2013. Variation among the assumptions about growth in energy demand 

and other fuel prices, particularly for natural gas, also contribute to the differences.

Although the AEO2013 projections for total coal consumption are actually somewhat lower than the ICF and INFORUM projections, 

the other outlooks offer more pessimistic projections. ExxonMobil is the most pessimistic, with coal consumption 33 percent and 

55 percent lower in 2025 and 2030, respectively, than in the AEO2013 Reference case. Coal consumption in 2025 is 17 percent (174 

million tons) less in the EVA outlook than in the AEO2013 Reference case and 8 percent less in the IHSGI outlook. The INFORUM 

and ICF outlooks for total coal consumption in 2035 are between 21 million tons (2 percent) and 55 million tons (5 percent) higher, 

respectively, than in the AEO2013 Reference case.

The electricity sector is the predominant consumer of coal and the primary source of differences among the projections, due 

to their differing assumptions about regulations and the economics of coal versus other fuel choices over time. Although EVA 

shows a greater reduction in coal use for electricity generation in 2025 than does IHSGI, for 2035 the two projections are similar. 

After 2035, EVA shows a continued small increase in coal use for electricity generation, whereas it continues to fall in the IHSGI 

projection and in 2040 is 37 million tons less than projected by EVA. The ICF outlook for coal consumption in electricity generation 

is similar to the AEO2013 projection through 2025 but then declines gradually through 2035. IEA projects a level of coal use for 

electricity generation in 2035 that is most similar to the AEO2013 Reference case.

In all the projections, coal consumption in the end-use sectors is low in comparison with the electric power sector; however, there 

are several notable differences among the outlooks. Most notably, the ICF outlook shows increasing coal use in the other sectors 

that offsets declining consumption for electric power. ICF is the only projection that shows an increase in coal use in the industrial 

and buildings sectors. AEO2013 shows the next highest level of coal consumption in the industrial and buildings sectors, but it is still 

less than half of ICF’s projection for industrial and buildings consumption in 2035. Both IHSGI and EVA show significant declines in 

coal use in those sectors over the projection period. In 2040, coal use in the buildings and industrial sectors in the IHSGI and EVA 

Table 13. Comparisons of liquids projections, 2025, 2035, and 2040 (million barrels per day, except where noted) 

(continued)

Projection 2011

AEO2013 

Reference case EVA INFORUMa IEAb,c ExxonMobila IHSGIa

2040

Average U.S. imported RAC 

(2011 dollars per barrel)

102.65 154.96 -- -- -- -- 79.46

Brent spot price 

(2011 dollars per barrel)

111.26 162.68 87.43 -- -- -- --

U.S. WTI crude oil price 

(2011 dollars per barrel)

94.86 160.68 -- -- -- -- 81.20

Domestic production 7.88 9.05 -- -- -- -- 9.31

Crude oil 5.67 6.13 -- -- -- -- 6.43

Alaska 0.57 0.41 -- -- -- -- --

Natural gas liquids 2.22 2.92 -- -- -- -- 2.88

Total net imports 8.58 6.91 -- -- -- -- 4.11

Crude oil 8.89 7.57 -- -- -- -- 6.71

Products -0.30 -0.67 -- -- -- -- -2.60

Liquids consumption 18.95 18.95 -- -- -- 17.50 15.48

Net petroleum import share of 

liquids supplied (percent)

44 35 -- -- -- -- 25

Biofuel production 0.97 1.33 -- -- -- -- 1.44

Transportation product prices 

(2011 dollars per gallon)

Gasoline 3.45 4.32 -- -- -- -- 2.78

Diesel 3.58 4.94 -- -- -- -- 2.91

-- = not reported.

a

For INFORUM, ExxonMobil, and IHSGI, liquids demand data were converted from quadrillion Btu to barrels at 187.84572 million barrels per 

quadrillion Btu. 

b

For IEA, liquids demand data were converted from metric tons to barrels at 8.162674 barrels per metric ton.

c

IEA crude oil prices represent the international average of crude oil import prices.
106 U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013

Comparison with other projections

Table 14. Comparisons of coal projections, 2025, 2035, and 2040 (million short tons, except where noted)

Projection 2011

AEO2013 Reference case Other projections

(million

short tons)

(quadrillion 

Btu)

EVAa ICFb IHSGI INFORUM IEA

ExxonMobilc

(million short tons) (quadrillion Btu)

2025

Production 1,096 1,113 22.54 958 1,104 1,107 1,061 -- --

East of the Mississippi 456 447 -- 402 445 -- -- -- --

West of the Mississippi 639 666 -- 556 659 -- -- -- --

Consumption

Electric power 929 929 17.66 786 939 864 -- -- 13

Coke plants 21 22 0.58 22 15 19 -- -- --

Coal-to-liquids -- 6 -- -- 36 -- -- -- --

Other industrial/buildings 49 53 1.69d 29 72 44 1.96d -- --

Total consumption 

(quadrillion Btu) 19.66 -- 19.35 -- -- 18.34 -- -- 13

Total consumption 

(million short tons) 999 1,010 -- 836 1,061 927 1,015e -- --

Net coal exports

(million short tons) 96 124 -- 118 43 181 46 -- --

Exports 107 129 -- 121 123 183 72 -- --

Imports 11 5 -- 4 80f 2 26 -- --

Minemouth price

2011 dollars per ton 41.16 52.02 -- -- 32.99 -- 45.11 -- --

2011 dollars per Btu 2.04 2.60 -- -- 1.66 -- 2.65 -- --

Average delivered price 

to electricity generators

2011 dollars per ton 46.38 51.14 -- -- 43.86 46.71g 50.83 -- --

2011 dollars per Btu 2.38 2.69 -- -- 2.12 2.39 -- -- --

2035

Production 1,096 1,171 23.60 954 1,053 1,041 1,096 -- --

East of the Mississippi 456 455 -- 397 428 -- -- -- --

West of the Mississippi 639 716 -- 558 624 -- -- -- --

Consumption

Electric power 929 975 18.48 791 919 787 -- 18.97h 9

Coke plants 21 18 0.48 21 12 18 -- -- --

Coal-to-liquids -- 11 -- -- 65 -- -- -- --

Other industrial/buildings 49 53 1.60d 24 117 36 2.12d -- --

Total consumption 

(quadrillion Btu) 19.66 -- 20.09 -- -- 16.55 -- 21.35h 9

Total consumption 

(million short tons) 999 1,058 -- 835 1,113 841 1,079e -- --

Net coal exports

(million short tons) 96 136 -- 116 -61 201 17 -- --

Exports 107 158 -- 119 75 203 68 -- --

Imports 11 22 -- 4 136g 2 51 -- --

Minemouth price

2010 dollars per ton 41.16 58.57 -- -- 30.94 -- -- -- --

2010 dollars per Btu 2.04 2.94 -- -- 1.58 -- 2.88 -- --

Average delivered price 

to electricity generators

2011 dollars per ton 46.38 57.39 -- -- 43.24 47.19g 55.20 -- --

2011 dollars per Btu 2.38 3.03 -- -- 2.12 2.43 -- -- --

-- = not reported.

See notes at end of table.

(continued on next page)
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013 107

Comparison with other projections

projections is equal to only 39 percent and 60 percent, respectively, of the coal use in those sectors in AEO2013. In addition, only 

AEO2013 and ICF project coal use for liquids production. Some of the gains in the two sectors are offset in the ICF outlook by lower 

consumption of coal at coke plants, which falls from 21 million tons in 2011 to 12 million tons in 2035. In the other outlooks, coal 

use at coke plants is similar to the levels in the AEO2013 Reference case, with modest declines through the end of their projections.

Differences among the projections for U.S. domestic coal production fall within a smaller range than the projections for coal 

consumption, depending in part on each outlook’s projections for net exports. For example, coal production in the EVA and IHSGI 

projections is buoyed by relatively high export levels after 2011, with total coal production falling by 13 percent and 5 percent, 

respectively, from 2011 to 2035, compared with a 16-percent decline in total coal consumption in both projections. The ICF and 

INFORUM outlooks, which project 11-percent and 8-percent increases in total coal consumption through 2035, respectively, show 

changes in total coal production of 4 percent and no growth, respectively, as a result of significantly lower net export levels.

The projections for coal exports in the AEO2013 Reference case generally fall between the EVA and IHSGI projections. INFORUM’s 

projection for coal exports is the lowest among the outlooks but similar to ICF’s projection for 2035. The composition of EVA’s 

exports also differs from that in AEO2013, in that EVA expects most exports to be thermal coal, whereas most exports in the early 

Table 14. Comparisons of coal projections, 2025, 2035, and-2040 (million short tons, except where noted) (continued)

Projection 2011

AEO2013 Reference case Other projections

(million

short tons)

(quadrillion 

Btu)

EVAa ICFb IHSGI INFORUM IEA

ExxonMobilc

(million short tons) (quadrillion Btu)

2040

Production 1,096 1,167 23.54 957 -- 1,015 -- -- --

East of the Mississippi 456 453 -- 396 -- -- -- -- --

West of the Mississippi 639 714 -- 561 -- -- -- -- --

Consumption

Electric power 929 984 18.68 797 -- 760 -- -- 6

Coke plants 21 18 0.46 19 -- 17 -- -- --

Coal-to-liquids -- 14 -- -- -- -- -- -- --

Other industrial/buildings 49 55 1.62d 21 -- 33 -- -- --

Total consumption 

(quadrillion Btu) 19.66 -- 20.35 -- -- 15.90 -- -- 6

Total consumption 

(million short tons)e 999 1,071 -- 838 -- 810 -- -- --

Net coal exports

(million short tons) 96 123 -- 116 -- 206 -- -- --

Exports 107 159 -- 119 -- 208 -- -- --

Imports 11 36 -- 4 -- 2 -- -- --

Minemouth price

2011 dollars per ton 41.16 61.28 -- -- -- -- -- -- --

2011 dollars per Btu 2.04 3.08 -- -- -- -- -- -- --

Average delivered price 

to electricity generators

2011 dollars per ton 46.38 60.77 -- -- -- 47.70g -- -- --

2011 dollars per Btu 2.38 3.20 -- -- -- 2.46 -- -- --

-- = not reported.

a

Regulations known to be accounted for in the EVA projections include MATS, CAIR, regulations for cooling-water intake structures under Section 

316(b) of the Clean Water Act, and regulations for coal combustion residuals under authority of the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act.

b

Regulations known to be accounted for in the ICF projections include MATS for mercury, HCl and filterables PM requirements starting in 2016, 

Phase I and II for CAIR followed by a more stringent CAIR replacement in 2018 to address 2012 NAAQS for PM2.5, final state-level mercury 

restrictions prior to MATS start date and in instances where the state requirement is more stringent than MATS, entrainments requirements for 

cooling water intake structures beginning in 2025, and coal combustion residual requirements under subtitle D starting in 2018, and a federal 

carbon cap and trade program starting in 2023.

c

ExxonMobil projections include a carbon tax.

d

Coal consumption in quadrillion Btu. INFORUM’s value appears to include coal consumption at coke plants. To facilitate comparison, the AEO2013 

value also includes coal consumption at coke plants.

e

Calculated as imports = (consumption - production + exports).

f

Calculated as consumption = (production - exports + imports).

g

Imputed, using heat conversion factor implied by U.S. steam coal consumption data for the electricity sector. 

h

For IEA, data were converted from million tons of oil equivalent using a conversion factor of 39.683 million Btu per ton of oil equivalent.
108 U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013

Comparison with other projections

years of the AEO2013 Reference case are coking coal. In 2025, coking coal accounts for 57 percent of total coal exports in the 

AEO2013 Reference case, compared with 34 percent in the EVA projection. In 2040, however, the coking coal share of exports 

in the AEO2013 projection declines to 44 percent, compared with 32 percent in the EVA projection. In comparison, coking coal 

accounts for 74 percent of total coal exports in 2035 in the ICF projection.

In the EVA and IHSGI projections, coal imports remain low and relatively flat. AEO2013 also shows low levels of imports initially, but 

they grow to 36 million tons in 2040 from 5 million tons in 2025. For 2035, the ICF outlook implies 136 million tons of coal imports 

(calculated by subtracting production from the sum of consumption and exports), which is higher than all the others shown in 

the comparison table. Coal imports remain above 20 million tons in the INFORUM projections, and as in the ICF and AEO2013

projections, they increase over time, doubling in 2035 from the 2025 level.

Only AEO2013, ICF, and INFORUM provide projections of minemouth coal prices. In the ICF projections, minemouth prices in 2025 

are 20 percent below those in 2011 (on a dollar-per-ton basis), and they decline only slightly through 2035. INFORUM projects coal 

minemouth prices that are very similar to the AEO2013 prices (on a dollar-per-million Btu basis).

The ICF outlook shows the lowest price for coal delivered to the electricity sector in both 2025 and 2035, with the real coal price 

lower than in 2011. INFORUM’s prices for coal delivered to electricity generators (on a dollar-per-ton basis) are similar. IHSGI’s 

delivered coal prices to electricity generators are significantly lower than those in the AEO2013 Reference case and remain close 

to the 2011 price over the entire projection period. As a result, the IHSGI delivered coal price to electricity generators is 9 percent 

lower in 2025 and 22 percent lower in 2040, on a dollar-per-ton basis, than projected in the AEO2013 Reference case.
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013 109

Comparison with other projections

Links current as of March 2013

145. EIA summed the sector-level sales from the INFORUM and EVA projections to develop a total electricity sales value for 

comparison purposes.

146. EIA estimated a weighted-average electricity price for INFORUM based on the sector-level prices and sales.

147. For purposes of comparison, generation from natural gas, turbine, and oil/gas steam capacity from EVA was combined, 

resulting in a total of 2,330 billion kilowatthours of generation from natural gas for 2040, as shown in Table 25.

Endnotes for Comparison with other projections
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U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013 111

List of acronyms

AB 32 California Assembly Bill 32

ACP Alternative compliance payment

AEO Annual Energy Outlook

AEO2012 Annual Energy Outlook 2012

AEO2013 Annual Energy Outlook 2013

API American Petroleum Institute

ARRA2009 American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009

ATRA American Taxpayer Relief Act of 2012

Blue Chip Blue Chip Consensus

BTL Biomass-to-liquids

Btu British thermal units

CAFE Corporate average fuel economy

CAIR Clean Air Interstate Rule

CARB California Air Resources Board

CBO Congressional Budget Office

CBTL Coal- and biomass-to-liquids

CCS Carbon capture and storage

CHP Combined heat and power

CMM Coal Market Module

CNG Compressed natural gas

CO Carbon monoxide

CO2 Carbon dioxide

CO2e Carbon dioxide equivalent

COL Combined license

CO2-EOR Carbon dioxide-enhanced oil recovery

CSAPR Cross-State Air Pollution Rule

CTL Coal-to-liquids

DG Distributed generation

DOE U.S. Department of Energy

DSI Dry sorbent injection

E10 Motor gasoline blend containing up to 10 percent ethanol

E15 Motor gasoline blend containing up to 15 percent ethanol

E85 Motor fuel containing up to 85 percent ethanol

EIA U.S. Energy Information Administration

EIEA2008 Energy Improvement and Extension Act of 2008

EISA2007 Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007

EMM Electricity Market Module

EOR Enhanced oil recovery

EPA U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

EPACT2005 Energy Policy Act of 2005

EUR Estimated ultimate recovery

EVA Energy Ventures Analysis

FCC Fluid catalytic cracking

FFV Flex-fuel vehicle

FGD Flue gas desulfurization

GDP Gross domestic product

GHG Greenhouse gas

GTL Gas-to-liquids

GVWR Gross vehicle weight rating

HAP Hazardous air pollutant

HDV Heavy-duty vehicle

Hg Mercury

ICF ICF International

IDM Industrial Demand Module

IEA International Energy Agency

IEM International Energy Module

IHSGI IHS Global Insight, Inc.

INFORUM Interindustry Forecasting Project at the University of 

Maryland

ITC Investment tax credit

LCFS Low Carbon Fuel Standard

LDV Light-duty vehicle

LED Light-emitting diode

LFG Landfill gas

LFMM Liquid Fuels Market Module

LNG Liquefied natural gas

LPG Liquefied petroleum gases

MACT Maximum achievable control technology

MATS Mercury and Air Toxics Standards

MAM Macroeconomic Activity Module

MMTCO2e Million metric tons carbon dioxide equivalent

mpg Miles per gallon

MY Model year

MSW Municipal solid waste

NAICS North American Industry Classification System

NEMS National Energy Modeling System

NESHAP National Emissions Standards for Hazardous Air 

Pollutants

NGCC Natural gas combined-cycle

NGL Natural gas liquids

NGPL Natural gas plant liquids

NGTDM Natural Gas Transmission and Distribution Module

NHTSA National Highway Traffic Safety Administration

NOX Nitrogen oxides

NRC U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission

NREL National Renewable Energy Laboratory

O&M Operations and maintenance

OECD Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development

OEG Oxford Economics Group

OMB Office of Management and Budget

OPEC Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries

PADDs Petroleum Administration for Defense Districts

PCs Personal computers

PM Particulate matter

PTC Production tax credit

PV Solar photovoltaic

RAC U.S. refiner acquisition cost

RFM Renewable Fuels Module

RFS Renewable fuel standard

RPS Renewable portfolio standard

SCR Selective catalytic reduction

SMR Small modular reactor

SNCR Selective noncatalytic reduction

SONGS San Onofre Nuclear Generating Station

SO2 Sulfur dioxide

SSA Social Security Administration

STEO Short-Term Energy Outlook

TRR Technically recoverable resource

TVA Tennessee Valley Authority

VMT Vehicle miles traveled

WTI West Texas Intermediate
112 U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013

Notes and sources

Table notes and sources

Legislation and regulations

Table 1. NHTSA projected average fleet-wide CAFE compliance levels for passenger cars and light-duty trucks, model years 

2017-2025, based on the model year 2010 baseline fleet: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and National Highway Traffic 

Safety Administration, “2017 and Later Model Year Light-Duty Vehicle Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Corporate Average Fuel 

Economy Standards; Final Rule,” Federal Register, Vol. 77, No. 199 (Washington, DC, October 15, 2012), https://federalregister.gov/

articles/2012/10/15/2012-21972/2017-and-later-model-year-light-duty-vehicle-greenhouse-gas-emissions-and-corporateaverage-fuel.

Table 2. AEO2013 projected average fleet-wide CAFE compliance levels for passenger cars and light-duty trucks, model years 

2017-2025: AEO2013 National Energy Modeling System, run REF2013.D102312A.

Table 3. Renewable portfolio standards in the 30 States and District of Columbia with current mandates: U.S. Energy Information 

Administration, Office of Energy Analysis. Based on a review of enabling legislation and regulatory actions from the various States 

of policies identified by the Database of States Incentives for Renewable Energy as of December 15, 2012, http://www.dsireusa.

org.

Issues in focus

Table 4. Key analyses from “Issues in focus” in recent AEOs: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2012, 

DOE/EIA-0383(2012) (Washington, DC, June 2012); U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2011, DOE/

EIA-0383(2011) (Washington, DC, April 2011); and U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2010, DOE/

EIA-0383(2010) (Washington, DC, April 2010).

Table 5. Differences in crude oil and natural gas assumptions across three cases: AEO2013 National Energy Modeling System, 

runs REF2013.D102312A, LOWRESOURCE.D011813A, and HIGHRESOURCE.D021413A.

Table 6. Differences in transportation demand assumptions across three cases: AEO2013 National Energy Modeling System, 

runs REF2013.D102312A, LOWIMPORT.D021113B, and HIGHIMPORT.D012813A.

Table 7. Proposed U.S. ethylene production capacity, 2013-2020: Stephen Zinger et. al., “A Renaissance for U.S. Gas-Intensive 

Industries Part 2,” Wood Mackenzie (November 2012).

Comparison with other projections

Table 8. Projections of average annual economic growth, 2011-2040: AEO2013 (Reference case): AEO2013 National Energy 

Modeling System, run REF2013.D102312A. AEO2012 (Reference case): AEO2012 National Energy Modeling System, run AEO2012.

REF2012.D020112C. IHSGI: IHS Global Insight, 30-year U.S. and Regional Economic Forecast (Lexington, MA, November 2012), 

http://www.ihs.com/products/global-insight/index.aspx (subscription site). OMB: Office of Management and Budget, Fiscal 

Year 2013 Budget of the U.S. Government (Washington, DC, January 2013), http://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/omb/

budget/fy2013/assets/budget.pdf. CBO: Congressional Budget Office, The Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2012 to 

2022 (Washington, DC, February 2013), http://www.cbo.gov/publication/42905. INFORUM: “INFORUM AEO2012 Reference 

Case, Lift (Long-term Interindustry Forecasting Tool) Model” (College Park, MD, December 2012), http://inforumweb.umd.edu/

services/models/lift.html. SSA: Social Security Administration, The 2012 Annual Report of the Board of Trustees of the Federal OldAge And Survivors Insurance and Federal Disability Insurance Trust Funds (U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, DC, April 

23 2012), http://www.ssa.gov/oact/tr/2012/2012_Long-Range_Economic_Assumptions.pdf. IEA (2012): International Energy 

Agency, World Energy Outlook 2012 (Paris, France, November 2012), http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org. Blue Chip Consensus: 

Blue Chip Economic Indicators (Aspen Publishers, October 2012), http://www.aspenpublishers.com/Topics/Banking-LawFinance-Economic-Forecast/. ExxonMobil: ExxonMobil Corporation, ExxonMobil 2013: The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040 

(Irving, TX, 2013), http://www.exxonmobil.com/Corporate/energy_outlook.aspx. ICF: “ICF Integrated Energy Outlook Q4 2012,” 

ICF Integrated Planning Model (IPM) and Gas Market Model (GMM) (Fairfax, VA, 4th Quarter, 2012). Oxford Economics Group: 

Oxford Economics, Ltd., 2013 Long Term Forecast (Oxford, United Kingdom, January 2013), http://www.OxfordEconomics.com

(subscription site).

Table 9. Projections of oil prices, 2025, 2035, and 2040: AEO2013 (Reference case): AEO2013 National Energy Modeling 

System, run REF2013.D102312A. AEO2012 (Reference case): AEO2012 National Energy Modeling System, run AEO2012.

REF2012.D020112C. EVA: Energy Ventures Analysis, Inc., e-mail from Anthony Petruzzo (December 21, 2012). IEA (Current 

Policies Scenario): International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2012 (Paris, France, November 2012), http://www.

worldenergyoutlook.org. INFORUM: “INFORUM AEO2012 Reference Case, Lift (Long-term Interindustry Forecasting Tool) 

Model” (College Park, MD, December 2012), http://inforumweb.umd.edu/services/models/lift.html. IHSGI: IHS Global Insight, 

30-year U.S. and Regional Economic Forecast (Lexington, MA, November 2012), http://www.ihs.com/products/global-insight/

index.aspx (subscription site).
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013 113

Notes and sources

Table 10. Projections of energy consumption by sector, 2025, 2035, and 2040: AEO2013 (Reference case): AEO2013 National 

Energy Modeling System, run REF2013.D102312A. INFORUM: “INFORUM AEO2012 Reference Case, Lift (Long-term Interindustry 

Forecasting Tool) Model” (College Park, MD, December 2012), http://inforumweb.umd.edu/services/models/lift.html. IHSGI: 

IHS Global Insight, 30-year U.S. and Regional Economic Forecast (Lexington, MA, November 2012), http://www.ihs.com/products/

global-insight/index.aspx (subscription site). ExxonMobil: ExxonMobil Corporation, ExxonMobil 2013: The Outlook for Energy: 

A View to 2040 (Irving, TX, 2013), http://www.exxonmobil.com/Corporate/energy_outlook.aspx. IEA: International Energy 

Agency, World Energy Outlook 2012 (Paris, France, November 2012), http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org.

Table 11. Comparison of electricity projections, 2025, 2035, and 2040: AEO2013 (Reference case): AEO2013 National Energy 

Modeling System, run REF2013.D102312A. EVA: Energy Ventures Analysis, Inc., e-mail from Anthony Petruzzo (December 21, 

2012). IHSGI: IHS Global Insight, 30-year U.S. and Regional Economic Forecast (Lexington, MA, November 2012), http://www.ihs.

com/products/global-insight/index.aspx (subscription site). INFORUM: “INFORUM AEO2012 Reference Case, Lift (Long-term 

Interindustry Forecasting Tool) Model” (College Park, MD, December 2012), http://inforumweb.umd.edu/services/models/

lift.html. ICF: “ICF Integrated Energy Outlook Q4 2012,” ICF Integrated Planning Model (IPM) and Gas Market Model (GMM) 

(Fairfax, VA, 4th Quarter 2012. NREL: National Renewable Energy Laboratory, e-mail from Trieu Mai (January 14, 2013).

Table 12. Comparison of natural gas projections, 2025, 2035, and 2040: AEO2013 (Reference case): AEO2013 National Energy 

Modeling System, run REF2013.D102312A. IHSGI: IHS Global Insight, 30-year U.S. and Regional Economic Forecast (Lexington, MA, 

November 2012), http://www.ihs.com/products/global-insight/index.aspx (subscription site). EVA: Energy Ventures Analysis, 

Inc., e-mail from Anthony Petruzzo (December 21, 2012). ICF: “ICF Integrated Energy Outlook Q4 2012,” ICF Integrated Planning 

Model (IPM) and Gas Market Model (GMM)“ (Fairfax, VA, 4th Quarter 2012). ExxonMobil: ExxonMobil Corporation, ExxonMobil 

2013: The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040 (Irving, TX, 2013), http://www.exxonmobil.com/Corporate/energy_outlook.aspx. 

INFORUM: “INFORUM AEO2012 Reference Case, Lift (Long-term Interindustry Forecasting Tool) Model” (College Park, MD, 

December 2012), http://inforumweb.umd.edu/services/models/lift.html.

Table 13. Comparison of liquids projections, 2025, 2035, and 2040: AEO2013 (Reference case): AEO2013 National Energy 

Modeling System, run REF2013.D102312A. EVA: Energy Ventures Analysis, Inc., e-mail from Anthony Petruzzo (December 21, 

2012). IHSGI: IHS Global Insight, 30-year U.S. and Regional Economic Forecast (Lexington, MA, November 2012), http://www.

ihs.com/products/global-insight/index.aspx (subscription site). INFORUM: “INFORUM AEO2012 Reference Case, Lift (Longterm Interindustry Forecasting Tool) Model” (College Park, MD, December 2012), http://inforumweb.umd.edu/services/

models/lift.html. IEA: International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2012 (Paris, France, November 2012), http://www.

worldenergyoutlook.org. ExxonMobil: ExxonMobil Corporation, ExxonMobil 2013: The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040 (Irving, 

TX, 2013), http://www.exxonmobil.com/Corporate/energy_outlook.aspx.

Table 14. Comparison of coal projections, 2025, 2035, and 2040: AEO2013 (Reference case): AEO2013 National Energy Modeling 

System, run REF2013.D102312A. EVA: Energy Ventures Analysis, Inc., e-mail from Anthony Petruzzo (December 21, 2012). ICF: 

“ICF Integrated Energy Outlook Q4 2012,” ICF Integrated Planning Model (IPM) and Gas Market Model (GMM) (Fairfax, VA, 4th 

Quarter 2012). IHSGI: IHS Global Insight, 30-year U.S. and Regional Economic Forecast (Lexington, MA, November 2012), http://

www.ihs.com/products/global-insight/index.aspx (subscription site). INFORUM: “INFORUM AEO2012 Reference Case, Lift 

(Long-term Interindustry Forecasting Tool) Model” (College Park, MD, December 2012), http://inforumweb.umd.edu/services/

models/lift.html. IEA: International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2012 (Paris, France, November 2012), http://www.

worldenergyoutlook.org. ExxonMobil: ExxonMobil Corporation, ExxonMobil 2013: The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040 (Irving, 

TX, 2013), http://www.exxonmobil.com/Corporate/energy_outlook.aspx.

Figure notes and sources

Executive summary

Figure 1. Net import share of U.S. liquids supply in two cases, 1970-2040: History: U.S. Energy Information Administration, 

Annual Energy Review 2011, DOE/EIA-0384(2011) (Washington, DC, September 2012). Projections: AEO2013 National Energy 

Modeling System, runs REF2013.D102312A and LOWIMPORT.D021113A.

Figure 2. Total U.S. natural gas production, consumption, and net imports, 1990-2040: History: U.S. Energy Information 

Administration, Natural Gas Annual 2011, DOE/EIA-0131(2011) (Washington, DC, January 2013). Projections: AEO2013 National 

Energy Modeling System, run REF2013.D102312A.

Figure 3. Power sector electricity generation from coal and natural gas in two cases, 2008-2040: History: U.S. Energy Information 

Administration, Annual Energy Review 2011, DOE/EIA-0384(2011) (Washington, DC, September 2012). Projections: AEO2013 

National Energy Modeling System, run REF2013.D102312A and HIGHRESOURCE.D021413A.

Figure 4. Coal and natural gas use in the electric power sector in three cases, 2011, 2025, and 2040: 2011: U.S. Energy Information 

Administration, Annual Energy Review 2011, DOE/EIA-0384(2011) (Washington, DC, September 2012). Projections: AEO2013 

National Energy Modeling System, runs REF2013.D102312A, HIGHRESOURCE.D021413A, and CO2FEE15.D021413A.
114 U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013

Notes and sources

Figure 5. Energy-related carbon dioxide emissions in four cases, 2000-2040: History: U.S. Energy Information Administration, 

Annual Energy Review 2011, DOE/EIA-0384(2011) (Washington, DC, September 2012). Projections: AEO2013 National Energy 

Modeling System, runs REF2013.D102312A, HIGHRESOURCE.D021413A, CO2FEE10.D021413A, CO2FEE15.D021413A, 

CO2FEE25.D021413A, CO2FEE10HR.D021413A, CO2FEE15HR.D021413A, and CO2FEE25HR.D021413A.

Figure 6. Transportation energy consumption by fuel, 1990-2040: History: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual 

Energy Review 2011, DOE/EIA-0384(2011) (Washington, DC, September 2012). Projections: AEO2013 National Energy Modeling 

System, run REF2013.D102312A.

Figure 7. U.S. dry natural gas consumption by sector, 2005-2040: History: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual 

Energy Review 2011, DOE/EIA-0384(2011) (Washington, DC, September 2012). Projections: AEO2013 National Energy Modeling 

System, run REF2013.D102312A.

Figure 8. Renewable energy share of U.S. electricity generation in five cases, 2000-2040: History: U.S. Energy Information 

Administration, Annual Energy Review 2011, DOE/EIA-0384(2011) (Washington, DC, September 2012). Projections: AEO2013 

National Energy Modeling System, runs REF2013.D102312A, CO2FEE10.D021413A, CO2FEE15.D021413A, and CO2FEE25.

D021413A.

Legislation and regulations

Figure 9. Projected average passenger car CAFE compliance targets by vehicle footprint, model years 2017-2025: U.S. 

Environmental Protection Agency and National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, “2017 and Later Model Year Light-Duty 

Vehicle Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Corporate Average Fuel Economy Standards; Final Rule,” Federal Register, Vol. 77, No. 

199 (Washington, DC, October 15, 2012), https://www.federalregister.gov/articles/2012/10/15/2012-21972/2017-and-latermodel-year-light-duty-vehicle-greenhouse-gas-emissions-and-corporate-average-fuel.

Figure 10. Projected average light-duty truck CAFE compliance targets by vehicle footprint, model years 2017-2025: U.S. 

Environmental Protection Agency and National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, “2017 and Later Model Year Light-Duty 

Vehicle Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Corporate Average Fuel Economy Standards; Final Rule,” Federal Register, Vol. 77, No. 

199 (Washington, DC, October 15, 2012), https://www.federalregister.gov/articles/2012/10/15/2012-21972/2017-and-latermodel-year-light-duty-vehicle-greenhouse-gas-emissions-and-corporate-average-fuel.

Figure 11. States covered by CAIR limits on emissions of sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxides: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 

States Covered by CAIR, http://www.epa.gov/cair/where.html.

Figure 12. Total renewable generation required for combined state renewable portfolio standards and projected total achieved, 

2012-2040: AEO2013 National Energy Modeling System, run REF2013.D102312A.

Issues in focus

Figure 13. Total energy consumption in three cases, 2005-2040: History: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy 

Review 2011, DOE/EIA-0384(2011) (Washington, DC, September 2012). Projections: AEO2013 National Energy Modeling System, 

runs REF2013.D102312A, NOSUNSET.D120712A, and EXTENDED.D010313A.

Figure 14. Consumption of petroleum and other liquids for transportation in three cases, 2005-2040: History: U.S. Energy 

Information Administration, Annual Energy Review 2011, DOE/EIA-0384(2011) (Washington, DC, September 2012). Projections: 

AEO2013 National Energy Modeling System, runs REF2013.D102312A, NOSUNSET.D120712A, and EXTENDED.D010313A.

Figure 15. Renewable electricity generation in three cases, 2005-2040: History: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual 

Energy Review 2011, DOE/EIA-0384(2011) (Washington, DC, September 2012). Projections: AEO2013 National Energy Modeling 

System, runs REF2013.D102312A, NOSUNSET.D120712A, and EXTENDED.D010313A.

Figure 16. Renewable electricity generation in two cases, 2012-2040: History: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual 

Energy Review 2010, DOE/EIA-0384(2010) (Washington, DC, October 2011). Projections: AEO2012 National Energy Modeling 

System, runs REF2012.D020112C and AEO2013HR8.D021213A.

Figure 17. Electricity generation from natural gas in three cases, 2005-2040: History: U.S. Energy Information Administration, 

Annual Energy Review 2011, DOE/EIA-0384(2011) (Washington, DC, September 2012). Projections: AEO2013 National Energy 

Modeling System, runs REF2013.D102312A, NOSUNSET.D120712A, and EXTENDED.D010313A.

Figure 18. Energy-related carbon dioxide emissions in three cases, 2005-2040: History: U.S. Energy Information Administration, 

Annual Energy Review 2011, DOE/EIA-0384(2011) (Washington, DC, September 2012). Projections: AEO2013 National Energy 

Modeling System, runs REF2013.D102312A, NOSUNSET.D120712A, and EXTENDED.D010313A.

Figure 19. Average delivered prices for natural gas in three cases, 2005-2040: History: U.S. Energy Information Administration, 

Annual Energy Review 2011, DOE/EIA-0384(2011) (Washington, DC, September 2012). Projections: AEO2013 National Energy 

Modeling System, runs REF2013.D102312A, NOSUNSET.D120712A, and EXTENDED.D010313A.
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013 115

Notes and sources

Figure 20. Average electricity prices in three cases, 2005-2040: History: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy 

Review 2011, DOE/EIA-0384(2011) (Washington, DC, September 2012). Projections: AEO2013 National Energy Modeling System, 

runs REF2013.D102312A, NOSUNSET.D120712A, and EXTENDED.D010313A.

Figure 21. Annual average spot price for Brent crude oil in three cases, 1990-2040: History: U.S. Energy Information Administration, 

Annual Energy Review 2011, DOE/EIA-0384(2011) (Washington, DC, September 2012). Projections: AEO2013 National Energy 

Modeling System, runs REF2013.D102312A, LOWPRICE.D031213A, and HIGHPRICE.D110912A.

Figure 22. World petroleum and other liquids supply in three cases, 1990-2040: History: U.S. Energy Information Administration, 

Annual Energy Review 2011, DOE/EIA-0384(2011) (Washington, DC, September 2012). Projections: AEO2013 National Energy 

Modeling System, runs REF2013.D102312A, LOWPRICE.D031213A, and HIGHPRICE.D110912A.

Figure 23. World petroleum and other liquids supply by source in the Reference case, 1990-2040: History: U.S. Energy 

Information Administration, Annual Energy Review 2011, DOE/EIA-0384(2011) (Washington, DC, September 2012). Projections: 

AEO2013 National Energy Modeling System, run REF2013.D102312A.

Figure 24. Net import share of liquid fuels in five cases, 2005-2040: History: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual 

Energy Review 2011, DOE/EIA-0384(2011) (Washington, DC, September 2012). Projections: AEO2013 National Energy Modeling 

System, runs REF2013.D102312A, HIGHIMPORT.D012813A, LOWIMPORT.D021113A, LOWRESOURCE.D012813A, and 

HIGHRESOURCE.D021413A.

Figure 25. U.S. carbon dioxide emissions in five cases, 2005-2040: History: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual 

Energy Review 2011, DOE/EIA-0384(2011) (Washington, DC, September 2012). Projections: AEO2013 National Energy Modeling 

System, runs REF2013.D102312A, HIGHIMPORT.D012813A, LOWIMPORT.D021113A, LOWRESOURCE.D012813A, and 

HIGHRESOURCE.D021413A.

Figure 26. Average delivered fuel prices to electric power plants, 2008-2040: History: U.S. Energy Information Administration, 

Annual Energy Review 2011, DOE/EIA-0384(2011) (Washington, DC, September 2012). Projections: AEO2013 National Energy 

Modeling System, run REF2013.D102312A.

Figure 27. Ratio of average per megawatthour fuel costs for natural gas combined-cycle plants to coal-fired steam turbines 

in five cases, 2008-2040: History: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Review 2011, DOE/EIA-0384(2011) 

(Washington, DC, September 2012). Projections: AEO2013 National Energy Modeling System, runs REF2013.D102312A, 

LOWRESOURCE.D012813A, HIGHRESOURCE.D021413A, LCCST13.D112112A, and HCCST13.D112112A.

Figure 28. Power sector electricity generation capacity by fuel in five cases, 2011 and 2025: History: U.S. Energy Information 

Administration, Annual Energy Review 2011, DOE/EIA-0384(2011) (Washington, DC, September 2012). Projections: AEO2013 

National Energy Modeling System, runs REF2013.D102312A, LOWRESOURCE.D012813A, HIGHRESOURCE.D021413A, LCCST13.

D112112A, and HCCST13.D112112A.

Figure 29. Power sector electricity generation capacity by fuel in five cases, 2011 and 2040: History: U.S. Energy Information 

Administration, Annual Energy Review 2011, DOE/EIA-0384(2011) (Washington, DC, September 2012). Projections: AEO2013 

National Energy Modeling System, runs REF2013.D102312A, LOWRESOURCE.D012813A, HIGHRESOURCE.D021413A, LCCST13.

D112112A, and HCCST13.D112112A.

Figure 30. Power sector electricity generation by fuel in five cases, 2011 and 2025: History: U.S. Energy Information Administration, 

Annual Energy Review 2011, DOE/EIA-0384(2011) (Washington, DC, September 2012). Projections: AEO2013 National Energy 

Modeling System, runs REF2013.D102312A, LOWRESOURCE.D012813A, HIGHRESOURCE.D021413A, LCCST13.D112112A, and 

HCCST13.D112112A.

Figure 31. Power sector electricity generation by fuel in five cases, 2011 and 2040: History: U.S. Energy Information Administration, 

Annual Energy Review 2011, DOE/EIA-0384(2011) (Washington, DC, September 2012). Projections: AEO2013 National Energy 

Modeling System, runs REF2013.D102312A, LOWRESOURCE.D012813A, HIGHRESOURCE.D021413A, LCCST13.D112112A, and 

HCCST13.D112112A.

Figure 32. Power sector electricity generation from coal and natural gas in two cases, 2008-2040: History: U.S. Energy 

Information Administration, Annual Energy Review 2011, DOE/EIA-0384(2011) (Washington, DC, September 2012). Projections: 

AEO2013 National Energy Modeling System, runs REF2013.D102312A and HIGHRESOURCE.D021413A.

Figure 33. Ratio of average per megawatthour fuel costs for natural gas combined-cycle plants to coal-fired steam turbines in 

the SERC southeast subregion in five cases, 2008-2040: History: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Review 

2011, DOE/EIA-0384(2011) (Washington, DC, September 2012). Projections: AEO2013 National Energy Modeling System, runs 

REF2013.D102312A, LOWRESOURCE.D012813A, HIGHRESOURCE.D021413A, LCCST13.D112112A, and HCCST13.D112112A.

Figure 34. Ratio of average per megawatthour fuel costs for natural gas combined-cycle plants to coal-fired steam turbines 

in the RFC west subregion in five cases, 2008-2040: History: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Review 

2011, DOE/EIA-0384(2011) (Washington, DC, September 2012). Projections: AEO2013 National Energy Modeling System, runs 

REF2013.D102312A, LOWRESOURCE.D012813A, HIGHRESOURCE.D021413A, LCCST13.D112112A, and HCCST13.D112112A.
116 U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013

Notes and sources

Figure 35. Nuclear capacity additions in five cases, 2011-2040: Projections: AEO2013 National Energy Modeling System, runs 

REF2013.D102312A, LOWNUC13.D112113A, HINUC13.D112112A, LOWRESOURCE.D012813A, and HIGHRESOURCE.D021413A.

Figure 36. Electricity generation from natural gas in three cases, 2005-2040: History: U.S. Energy Information Administration, 

Annual Energy Review 2011, DOE/EIA-0384(2011) (Washington, DC, September 2012). Projections: AEO2013 National Energy 

Modeling System, runs REF2013.D102312A, LOWNUC13.D112113A, and HINUC13.D112112A.

Figure 37. Carbon dioxide emissions from electricity generation in three cases, 2005-2040: History: U.S. Energy Information 

Administration, Annual Energy Review 2011, DOE/EIA-0384(2011) (Washington, DC, September 2012). Projections: AEO2013 

National Energy Modeling System, runs REF2013.D102312A, LOWNUC13.D112113A, and HINUC13.D112112A.

Figure 38. Levelized costs of nuclear electricity generation in two cases, 2025: Projections: AEO2013 National Energy Modeling 

System, runs REF2013.D102312A and NUCSMR13.D112712A.

Figure 39. U.S. production of natural gas liquids by type, 2005-2012: History: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Petroleum 

Supply Monthly, January 2013, http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_sum_snd_d_nus_mbblpd_a_cur.htm.

Figure 40. U.S. imports and exports of propane/propylene, 2005-2012: History: U.S. Energy Information Administration, 

Petroleum Supply Monthly, January 2013, http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_sum_snd_d_nus_mbblpd_a_cur.htm.

Figure 41. U.S. Brent crude oil and Henry Hub natural gas spot market prices in three cases, 2005-2040: History: U.S. Energy 

Information Administration, Annual Energy Review 2011, DOE/EIA-0384(2011) (Washington, DC, September 2012). Projections: 

AEO2013 National Energy Modeling System, runs REF2013.D102312A, LOWRESOURCE.D012813A, and HIGHRESOURCE.

D021413A.

Figure 42. U.S. production of dry natural gas and natural gas plant liquids in three cases, 2005-2040: History: U.S. Energy 

Information Administration, Annual Energy Review 2011, DOE/EIA-0384(2011) (Washington, DC, September 2012). Projections: 

AEO2013 National Energy Modeling System, runs REF2013.D102312A, LOWRESOURCE.D012813A, and HIGHRESOURCE.

D021413A.

Figure 43. U.S. net exports of liquefied petroleum gases in three cases, 2011-2040: History: U.S. Energy Information 

Administration, Annual Energy Review 2011, DOE/EIA-0384(2011) (Washington, DC, September 2012). Projections: AEO2013 

National Energy Modeling System, runs REF2013.D102312A, LOWRESOURCE.D012813A, and HIGHRESOURCE.D021413A.

Market Trends

Figure 44. Average annual growth rates of real GDP, labor force, and productivity in three cases, 2011-2040: Projections: 

AEO2013 National Energy Modeling System, runs REF2013.D102312A, LOWMACRO.D110912A, and HIGHMACRO.D110912A.

Figure 45. Average annual growth rates for real output and its major components in three cases, 2011-2040: History: Bureau of 

Economic Analysis. Projections: AEO2013 National Energy Modeling System, runs REF2013.D102312A, LOWMACRO.D110912A, 

and HIGHMACRO.D110912A.

Figure 46. Sectoral composition of industrial shipments, annual growth rates in three cases, 2011-2040: Projections: AEO2013 

National Energy Modeling System, runs REF2013.D102312A, LOWMACRO.D110912A, and HIGHMACRO.D110912A.

Figure 47. Energy end-use expenditures as a share of gross domestic product, 1970-2040: History: U.S. Energy Information 

Administration, Annual Energy Review 2011, DOE/EIA-0384(2011) (Washington, DC, September 2012). Projections: AEO2013 

National Energy Modeling System, run REF2013.D102312A.

Figure 48. Energy end-use expenditures as a share of gross output, 1987-2040: History: U.S. Energy Information Administration, 

Annual Energy Review 2011, DOE/EIA-0384(2011) (Washington, DC, September 2012). Projections: AEO2013 National Energy 

Modeling System, run REF2013.D102312A.

Figure 49. Brent crude oil spot prices in three cases, 1990-2040: History: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Petroleum 

& Other Liquids, Europe Bent Spot Price FOB, http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=RBRTE&f=D. 

Projections: AEO2013 National Energy Modeling System, runs REF2013.D102312A, LOWPRICE.D031213A, and HIGHPRICE.

D110912A.

Figure 50. World petroleum and other liquids consumption by region in three cases, 2011 and 2040: History: U.S. Energy 

Information Administration, Annual Energy Review 2011, DOE/EIA-0384(2011) (Washington, DC, September 2012). Projections: 

AEO2013 National Energy Modeling System, runs REF2013.D102312A LOWPRICE.D031213A, and HIGHPRICE.D110912A.

Figure 51. World production of liquids from biomass, coal, and natural gas in three cases, 2011 and 2040: Projections: AEO2013 

National Energy Modeling System, runs REF2013.D102312A LOWPRICE.D031213A, and HIGHPRICE.D110912A.

Figure 52. Energy use per capita and per dollar of gross domestic product, 1980-2040: History: U.S. Energy Information 

Administration, Annual Energy Review 2011, DOE/EIA-0384(2011) (Washington, DC, September 2012). Projections: AEO2013 

National Energy Modeling System, run REF2013.D102312A.
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013 117

Notes and sources

Figure 53. Primary energy use by end-use sector, 2011-2040: History: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy 

Review 2011, DOE/EIA-0384(2011) (Washington, DC, September 2012). Projections: AEO2013 National Energy Modeling 

System, run REF2013.D102312A.

Figure 54. Primary energy use by fuel, 1980-2040: History: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Review 

2011, DOE/EIA-0384(2011) (Washington, DC, September 2012). Projections: AEO2013 National Energy Modeling System, run 

REF2013.D102312A.

Figure 55. Residential delivered energy intensity in four cases, 2005-2040: History: U.S. Energy Information Administration, 

Annual Energy Review 2011, DOE/EIA-0384(2011) (Washington, DC, September 2012). Projections: AEO2013 National Energy 

Modeling System, runs REF2013.D102312A, FROZTECH.D120712A, HIGHTECH.D120712A, and BESTTECH.D121012A.

Figure 56. Change in residential electricity consumption for selected end uses in the Reference case, 2011-2040: Projections: 

AEO2013 National Energy Modeling System, run REF2013.D102312A.

Figure 57. Change in residential delivered energy consumption for selected end uses in four cases, 2011-2040: Projections: 

AEO2013 National Energy Modeling System, runs REF2013.D102312A, EXTENDED.D010313A, HIGHTECH.D120712A, and 

BESTTECH.D121012A.

Figure 58. Residential sector adoption of renewable energy technologies in two cases, 2005-2040: History: U.S. Energy 

Information Administration, Annual Energy Review 2011, DOE/EIA-0384(2011) (Washington, DC, September 2012), American 

Wind Energy Association, and Interstate Renewable Energy Council. Projections: AEO2013 National Energy Modeling System, 

runs REF2013.D102312A and NOSUNSET.D120712A.

Figure 59. Commercial delivered energy intensity in four cases, 2005-2040: History: U.S. Energy Information Administration, 

Annual Energy Review 2011, DOE/EIA-0384(2011) (Washington, DC, September 2012). Projections: AEO2013 National Energy 

Modeling System, runs REF2013.D102312A, FROZTECH.D120712A, HIGHTECH.D120712A, and BESTTECH.D121012A.

Figure 60. Energy intensity of selected commercial electric end uses, 2011 and 2040: Projections: AEO2013 National Energy 

Modeling System, run REF2013.D102312A.

Figure 61. Efficiency gains for selected commercial equipment in three cases, 2040: Projections: AEO2013 National Energy 

Modeling System, runs REF2013.D102312A, FROZTECH.D120712A, and BESTTECH.D121012A.

Figure 62. Additions to electricity generation capacity in the commercial sector in two cases, 2011-2040: Projections: AEO2013 

National Energy Modeling System, runs REF2013.D102312A and EXTENDED.D010313A.

Figure 63. Industrial delivered energy consumption by application, 2011-2040: Projections: AEO2013 National Energy Modeling 

System, run REF2013.D102312A.

Figure 64. Industrial energy consumption by fuel, 2011, 2025, and 2040: Projections: AEO2013 National Energy Modeling 

System, run REF2013.D102312A.

Figure 65. Cumulative growth in value of shipments from energy-intensive industries in three cases, 2011-2040: Projections: 

AEO2013 National Energy Modeling System, runs REF2013.D102312A, LOWMACRO.D110912A, and HIGHMACRO.D110912A.

Figure 66. Change in delivered energy consumption for energy-intensive industries in three cases, 2011-2040: Projections: 

AEO2013 National Energy Modeling System, runs REF2013.D102312A, LOWMACRO.D110912A, and HIGHMACRO.D110912A.

Figure 67. Cumulative growth in value of shipments from energy-intensive industries, 2011-2040, 2011-2025, and 2025-2040: 

Projections: AEO2013 National Energy Modeling System, run REF2013.D102312A.

Figure 68. Cumulative growth in value of shipments from non-energy-intensive industries in three cases, 2011-2040: Projections: 

AEO2013 National Energy Modeling System, runs REF2013.D102312A, LOWMACRO.D110912A, and HIGHMACRO.D110912A.

Figure 69. Change in delivered energy consumption for non-energy-intensive industries in three cases, 2011-2040: Projections: 

AEO2013 National Energy Modeling System, runs REF2013.D102312A, LOWMACRO.D110912A, and HIGHMACRO.D110912A.

Figure 70. Delivered energy consumption for transportation by mode, 2011 and 2040: Projections: AEO2013 National Energy 

Modeling System, run REF2013.D102312A.

Figure 71. Average fuel economy of new light-duty vehicles, 1980-2040: History: S.C. Davis, S.W. Diegel, and R.G. Boundy, 

Transportation Energy Databook: Edition 31, ORNL-6987 (Oak Ridge, TN: July 2012), Chapter 4, Table 4.21 “Car Corporate Average 

Fuel Economy (CAFE) Standards versus Sales-Weighted Fuel Economy Estimates, 1978-2011 (miles per gallon).” Projections: 

AEO2013 National Energy Modeling System, run REF2013.D102312A.

Figure 72. Vehicle miles traveled per licensed driver, 1970-2040: History: U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Highway 

Administration, Highway Statistics 2010 (Washington, DC: 2012), http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/policyinformation/statistics/2010/. 

Projections: AEO2013 National Energy Modeling System, run REF2013.D102312A.

Figure 73. Sales of light-duty vehicles using non-gasoline technologies by type, 2011, 2025, and 2040: Projections: AEO2013 

National Energy Modeling System, run REF2013.D102312A.
118 U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013

Notes and sources

Figure 74. Natural gas consumption in the transportation sector, 1995-2040: History: Oak Ridge National Laboratory, 

Transportation Energy Data Book: Edition 30 (Oak Ridge, TN, 2011), http://cta.ornl.gov/data/index.shtml. Projections: AEO2013 

National Energy Modeling System, run REF2013.D102312A.

Figure 75. U.S. electricity demand growth, 1950-2040: History: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Review 

2011, DOE/EIA-0384(2011) (Washington, DC, September 2012). Projections: AEO2013 National Energy Modeling System, run 

REF2013.D102312A.

Figure 76. Electricity generation by fuel, 2011, 2025, and 2040: Projections: AEO2013 National Energy Modeling System, run 

REF2013.D102312A.

Figure 77. Electricity generation capacity additions by fuel type, including combined heat and power, 2012-2040: Projections: 

AEO2013 National Energy Modeling System, run REF2013.D102312A.

Figure 78. Additions to electricity generating capacity, 1985-2040: History: Energy Information Administration, Form EIA-860, 

“Annual Electric Generator Report.” Projections: AEO2013 National Energy Modeling System, run REF2013.D102312A.

Figure 79. Electricity sales and power sector generating capacity, 1949-2040: History: U.S. Energy Information Administration, 

Annual Energy Review 2011, DOE/EIA-0384(2011) (Washington, DC, September 2012). Projections: AEO2013 National Energy 

Modeling System, run REF2013.D102312A.

Figure 80. Levelized electricity costs for new power plants, excluding subsidies, 2020 and 2040: Projections: AEO2013 National 

Energy Modeling System, run REF2013.D102312A.

Figure 81. Electricity generating capacity at U.S. nuclear power plants in three cases, 2011, 2025, and 2040: Projections: 

AEO2013 National Energy Modeling System, runs REF2013.D102312A, LOWMACRO.D110912A, and HIGHMACRO.D110912A.

Figure 82. Renewable electricity generation capacity by energy source, including end-use capacity, 2011-2040: Projections: 

AEO2013 National Energy Modeling System, run REF2013.D102312A.

Figure 83. Renewable electricity generation by type, including end-use generation, 2008-2040: History: U.S. Energy Information 

Administration, Annual Energy Review 2011, DOE/EIA-0384(2011) (Washington, DC, September 2012). Projections: AEO2013 

National Energy Modeling System, run REF2013.D102312A.

Figure 84. Regional nonhydropower renewable electricity generation, including end-use generation, 2011 and 2040: Projections:

AEO2013 National Energy Modeling System, run REF2013.D102312A.

Figure 85. Natural gas consumption by sector, 1990-2040: History: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Review 

2011, DOE/EIA-0384(2011) (Washington, DC, September 2012). Projections: AEO2013 National Energy Modeling System, run 

REF2013.D102312A.

Figure 86. Annual average Henry Hub spot natural gas prices, 1990-2040: History: U.S. Energy Information Administration, 

Natural Gas Annual 2011, DOE/EIA-0131(2011) (Washington, DC, January 2013). Projections: AEO2013 National Energy Modeling 

System, run REF2013.D102312A.

Figure 87. Ratio of Brent crude oil price to Henry Hub spot natural gas price in energy-equivalent terms, 1990-2040: History: U.S. 

Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook Query System, Monthly Natural Gas Data, Variable NGHHUUS. 

Projections: AEO2013 National Energy Modeling System, run REF2013.D102312A.

Figure 88. Annual average Henry Hub spot prices for natural gas in five cases, 1990-2040: History: U.S. Energy Information 

Administration, Natural Gas Annual 2011, DOE/EIA-0131(2011) (Washington, DC, January 2013). Projections: AEO2013 National 

Energy Modeling System, runs REF2013.D102312A, LOWMACRO.D110912A, HIGHMACRO.D110912A, LOWRESOURCE.

D012813A, and HIGHRESOURCE.D021413A.

Figure 89. Total U.S. natural gas production, consumption, and net imports, 1990-2040: History: U.S. Energy Information 

Administration, Natural Gas Annual 2011, DOE/EIA-0131(2011) (Washington, DC, January 2013). Projections: AEO2013 National 

Energy Modeling System, run REF2013.D102312A.

Figure 90. Total U.S. natural gas production in three oil price cases, 1990-2040: History: U.S. Energy Information Administration, 

Natural Gas Annual 2011, DOE/EIA-0131(2011) (Washington, DC, January 2013). Projections: AEO2013 National Energy Modeling 

System, runs REF2013.D102312A, LOWPRICE.D031213A, and HIGHPRICE.D110912A.

Figure 91. Natural gas production by source, 1990-2040: History: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Natural Gas Annual 

2011, DOE/EIA-0131(2011) (Washington, DC, January 2013). Projections: AEO2013 National Energy Modeling System, run 

REF2013.D102312A.

Figure 92. U.S. net imports of natural gas by source, 1990-2040: History: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Natural Gas 

Annual 2011, DOE/EIA-0131(2011) (Washington, DC, January 2013). Projections: AEO2013 National Energy Modeling System, 

run REF2013.D102312A.
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013 119

Notes and sources

Figure 93. Consumption of petroleum and other liquids by sector, 1990-2040: History: U.S. Energy Information Administration, 

Annual Energy Review 2011, DOE/EIA-0384(2011) (Washington, DC, September 2012). Projections: AEO2013 National Energy 

Modeling System, run REF2013.D102312A.

Figure 94. U.S. production of petroleum and other liquids by source, 2011-2040: Projections: AEO2013 National Energy Modeling 

System, run REF2013.D102312A.

Figure 95. Total U.S. crude oil production in three resource cases, 1990-2040: History: U.S. Energy Information Administration, 

Annual Energy Review 2011, DOE/EIA-0384(2011) (Washington, DC, September 2012). Projections: AEO2013 National Energy 

Modeling System, runs REF2013.D102312A, LOWRESOURCE.D012813A, and HIGHRESOURCE.D021413A.

Figure 96. Domestic crude oil production by source, 2000-2040: History: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual 

Energy Review 2011, DOE/EIA-0384(2011), Table 5.2, (Washington, DC, September 2011). Projections: AEO2013 National Energy 

Modeling System, run REF2013.D102312A.

Figure 97. Total U.S. tight oil production by geologic formation, 2008-2040: History: Drilling Info (formerly HPDI), Texas RRC, 

North Dakota department of mineral resources. Projections: AEO2013 National Energy Modeling System, run REF2013.D102312A.

Figure 98. API gravity of U.S. domestic and imported crude oil supplies, 1990-2040: History: U.S. Energy Information 

Administration, Crude Oil Input Qualities and Company Level Imports Archives, http://www.eia.gov/petroleum/imports/

companylevel/archive/. Projections: AEO2013 National Energy Modeling System, run REF2013.D102312A.

Figure 99. Net import share of U.S. petroleum and other liquids consumption in three oil price cases, 1990-2040: History: 

U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Review 2011, DOE/EIA-0384(2011) (Washington, DC, September 2012). 

Projections: AEO2013 National Energy Modeling System, runs REF2013.D102312A, LOWPRICE.D031213A, and HIGHPRICE.

D110912A.

Figure 100. EISA2007 RFS credits earned in selected years, 2011-2040: Projections: AEO2013 National Energy Modeling System, 

run REF2013.D102312A.

Figure 101. Consumption of advanced renewable fuels, 2011-2040: Projections: AEO2013 National Energy Modeling System, run 

REF2013.D102312A.

Figure 102. U.S. motor gasoline and diesel fuel consumption, 2000-2040: History: U.S. Energy Information Administration, 

Annual Energy Review 2011, DOE/EIA-0384(2011) (Washington, DC, September 2012). Projections: AEO2013 National Energy 

Modeling System, run REF2013.D102312A.

Figure 103. U.S. refinery gasoline-to-diesel production ratio and crack spread, 2008-2040: History: 2008-2010: Crack spread 

calculated from national average wholesale prices for diesel fuel and gasoline blend components (RBOB) and historical crude 

prices. Wholesale prices calculated from historical end use prices and distributor/tax markups. Oil and Gas Information Reporting 

System (OGIRS). 2011: U.S. Energy Information Administration, EIA Today In Energy (October 31, 2011), “3:2:1 crack spreads based 

on WTI & LLS crude oils have diverged in 2011,” http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=3710. 2008-2011: Gasoline 

and diesel refinery production calculated as the difference of historical consumption levels and corresponding non-petroleum 

components (ethanol, biodiesel). Oil and Gas Information Reporting System (OGIRS). Projections: AEO2013 National Energy 

Modeling System, run REF2013.D102312A.

Figure 104. Coal production by region, 1970-2040: History (short tons): 1970-1990: U.S. Energy Information Administration, 

The U.S. Coal Industry, 1970-1990: Two Decades of Change, DOE/EIA-0559 (Washington, DC, November 2002). 1991-2000: U.S. 

Energy Information Administration, Coal Industry Annual, DOE/EIA-0584 (various years). 2001-2011: U.S. Energy Information 

Administration, Annual Coal Report 2011, DOE/EIA-0584(2011) (Washington, DC, November 2012), and previous issues. History 

(conversion to quadrillion Btu): 1970-2010: Estimation Procedure: Estimates of average heat content by region and year are based 

on coal quality data collected through various energy surveys (see sources) and national-level estimates of U.S. coal production 

by year in units of quadrillion Btu, published in EIA’s Annual Energy Review. Sources: U.S. Energy Information Administration, 

Annual Energy Review 2011, DOE/EIA-0384(2011) (Washington, DC, September 2012), Table 1.2; Form EIA-3, “Quarterly Coal 

Consumption and Quality Report, Manufacturing and Transformation/Processing Coal Plants and Commercial and Institutional 

Coal Users”; Form EIA-5, “Quarterly Coal Consumption and Quality Report, Coke Plants”; Form EIA-6A, “Coal Distribution 

Report”; Form EIA-7A, “Annual Coal Production and Preparation Report”; Form EIA-423, “Monthly Cost and Quality of Fuels for 

Electric Plants Report”; Form EIA-906, “Power Plant Report”; Form EIA-920, “Combined Heat and Power Plant Report”; Form 

EIA-923, “Power Plant Operations Report”; U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, “Monthly Report EM 545”; and 

Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, Form 423, “Monthly Report of Cost and Quality of Fuels for Electric Plants.” Projections: 

AEO2013 National Energy Modeling System, run REF2013.D102312A. Note: For 1989-2035, coal production includes waste coal.

Figure 105. U.S. total coal production in six cases, 2011, 2020, and 2040: Projections: AEO2013 National Energy Modeling 

System, runs REF2013.D102312A, LCCST13.D112112A, HCCST13.D112112A, LOWRESOURCE.D012813A, HIGHRESOURCE.

D021413A, and CO2FEE15.D021413A. Note: Coal production includes waste coal.
120 U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013

Notes and sources

Figure 106. Average annual minemouth coal prices by region, 1990-2040: History (dollars per short ton): 1990-2000: U.S. 

Energy Information Administration, Coal Industry Annual, DOE/EIA-0584 (various years). 2001-2011: U.S. Energy Information 

Administration, Annual Coal Report 2011, DOE/EIA-0584(2011) (Washington, DC, November 2012), and previous issues. History 

(conversion to dollars per million Btu): 1970-2011: Estimation Procedure: Estimates of average heat content by region and 

year based on coal quality data collected through various energy surveys (see sources) and national-level estimates of U.S. 

coal production by year in units of quadrillion Btu published in EIA’s Annual Energy Review. Sources: U.S. Energy Information 

Administration, Annual Energy Review 2011, DOE/EIA-0384(2011) (Washington, DC, September 2012), Table 1.2; Form EIA-3, 

“Quarterly Coal Consumption and Quality Report, Manufacturing and Transformation/Processing Coal Plants and Commercial 

and Institutional Coal Users”; Form EIA-5, “Quarterly Coal Consumption and Quality Report, Coke Plants”; Form EIA-6A, “Coal 

Distribution Report”; Form EIA-7A, “Annual Coal Production and Preparation Report”; Form EIA-423, “Monthly Cost and Quality 

of Fuels for Electric Plants Report”; Form EIA-906, “Power Plant Report”; Form EIA-920, “Combined Heat and Power Plant Report”; 

Form EIA-923, “Power Plant Operations Report”; U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, “Monthly Report EM 

545”; and Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, Form 423, “Monthly Report of Cost and Quality of Fuels for Electric Plants.” 

Projections: AEO2013 National Energy Modeling System, run REF2013.D102312A. Note: Includes reported prices for both openmarket and captive mines.

Figure 107. Cumulative coal-fired generating capacity additions and environmental retrofits in two cases, 2012-2040: Projections: 

AEO2013 National Energy Modeling System, runs REF2013.D102312A and NOGHGCONCERN.D110912A.

Figure 108. U.S. energy-related carbon dioxide emissions by sector and fuel, 2005 and 2040: History: U.S. Energy Information 

Administration, Monthly Energy Review, March, 2013, DOE/EIA-0035(2013/03). Projections: AEO2013 National Energy Modeling 

System, run REF2013.D102312A.

Figure 109. Sulfur dioxide emissions from electricity generation, 1990-2040: History: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 

Clean Air Interstate Rule, Acid Rain Program, and Former NOX Budget Trading Program 2011 Progress Report, http://www.epa.gov/

airmarkets/progress/ARPCAIR11_01.html#qualityassurance. Projections: AEO2013 National Energy Modeling System, run 

REF2013.D102312A.

Figure 110. Nitrogen oxides emissions from electricity generation, 1990-2040: History: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 

Clean Air Interstate Rule, Acid Rain Program, and Former NOX Budget Trading Program 2011 Progress Report, http://www.epa.gov/

airmarkets/progress/ARPCAIR11_01.html#qualityassurance. Projections: AEO2013 National Energy Modeling System, run 

REF2013.D102312A.

Figure 111. Energy-related carbon dioxide emissions in two cases with three levels of emissions fees, 2000-2040: History: 

U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Review 2011, DOE/EIA-0384(2011) (Washington, DC, September 2012). 

Projections: AEO2013 National Energy Modeling System, runs REF2013.D102312A, HIGHRESOURCE.D021413A, CO2FEE10.

D021413A, CO2FEE15.D021413A, CO2FEE25.D021413A, CO2FEE10HR.D021413A, CO2FEE15HR.D021413A, and CO2FEE25HR.

D021413A.

Figure 112. Natural gas-fired electricity generation in six CO2 fee cases, 2000-2040: History: U.S. Energy Information 

Administration, Annual Energy Review 2011, DOE/EIA-0384(2011) (Washington, DC, September 2012). Projections: AEO2013 

National Energy Modeling System, runs REF2013.D102312A, HIGHRESOURCE.D021413A, CO2FEE10.D021413A, CO2FEE15.

D021413A, CO2FEE25.D021413A, CO2FEE10HR.D021413A, CO2FEE15HR.D021413A, and CO2FEE25HR.D021413A.
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013 121

Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Outlook 2013

Table A1. Total energy supply, disposition, and price summary

(quadrillion	Btu	per	year,	unless otherwise noted)

Supply, disposition, and prices 

Reference case Annual 

growth 

2011-2040

2010 2011 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 (percent) 

Production 

 Crude oil and lease condensate ............................ 11.59 12.16 15.95 14.50 13.47 13.40 13.12 0.3% 

 Natural gas plant liquids ........................................ 2.78 2.88 4.14 4.20 3.85 3.87 3.89 1.0% 

 Dry natural gas ...................................................... 21.82 23.51 27.19 29.22 30.44 32.04 33.87 1.3% 

 Coal1 ...................................................................... 22.04 22.21 21.74 22.54 23.25 23.60 23.54 0.2% 

 Nuclear / uranium2 ................................................. 8.43 8.26 9.25 9.54 9.49 9.14 9.44 0.5% 

 Hydropower ........................................................... 2.54 3.17 2.83 2.86 2.87 2.90 2.92 -0.3% 

 Biomass3................................................................ 4.05 4.05 5.00 5.27 5.42 5.83 6.96 1.9% 

 Other renewable energy4 ....................................... 1.31 1.58 2.22 2.32 2.50 2.91 3.84 3.1% 

 Other5 .................................................................... 0.76 1.20 0.83 0.85 0.88 0.90 0.89 -1.0% 

 Total ................................................................... 75.31 79.02 89.16 91.29 92.18 94.59 98.46 0.8%

 

Imports 

 Crude oil ................................................................ 20.14 19.46 15.02 15.57 16.33 16.43 16.89 -0.5% 

 Liquid fuels and other petroleum6 .......................... 5.26 5.24 5.55 5.47 5.33 5.13 4.82 -0.3% 

 Natural gas7 ........................................................... 3.83 3.54 2.58 2.36 2.63 2.53 2.01 -1.9% 

 Other imports8........................................................ 0.52 0.43 0.11 0.17 0.13 0.48 0.84 2.4% 

 Total ................................................................... 29.75 28.66 23.26 23.57 24.41 24.57 24.55 -0.5%

 

Exports 

 Liquid fuels and other petroleum9 .......................... 4.86 6.08 5.37 5.14 5.25 5.55 5.71 -0.2% 

 Natural gas10 .......................................................... 1.15 1.52 2.67 3.92 4.71 5.07 5.56 4.6% 

 Coal ....................................................................... 2.10 2.75 3.13 3.18 3.51 3.80 3.79 1.1% 

 Total ................................................................... 8.11 10.35 11.17 12.25 13.47 14.42 15.06 1.3%

 

Discrepancy11 .......................................................... -1.40 -0.36 0.21 0.27 0.30 0.32 0.32 - -

 

Consumption 

 Liquid fuels and other petroleum12 ......................... 37.76 37.02 37.54 36.87 36.08 35.82 36.07 -0.1% 

 Natural gas ............................................................ 24.32 24.91 26.77 27.28 27.95 29.06 29.83 0.6% 

 Coal13..................................................................... 20.81 19.66 18.59 19.35 19.70 20.09 20.35 0.1% 

 Nuclear / uranium2 ................................................. 8.43 8.26 9.25 9.54 9.49 9.14 9.44 0.5% 

 Hydropower ........................................................... 2.54 3.17 2.83 2.86 2.87 2.90 2.92 -0.3% 

 Biomass14 .............................................................. 2.87 2.74 3.53 3.82 3.94 4.23 4.91 2.0% 

 Other renewable energy4 ....................................... 1.31 1.58 2.22 2.32 2.50 2.91 3.84 3.1% 

 Other15 ................................................................... 0.31 0.35 0.31 0.30 0.28 0.26 0.29 -0.6% 

 Total ................................................................... 98.35 97.70 101.04 102.34 102.81 104.41 107.64 0.3%

 

Prices (2011 dollars per unit) 

 Crude oil spot prices (dollars per barrel) 

 Brent ................................................................... 81.31 111.26 105.57 117.36 130.47 145.41 162.68 1.3% 

 West Texas Intermediate .................................... 81.08 94.86 103.57 115.36 128.47 143.41 160.68 1.8% 

 Natural gas at Henry Hub (dollars per million Btu) . 4.46 3.98 4.13 4.87 5.40 6.32 7.83 2.4% 

 Coal (dollars per ton) 

 at the minemouth16 ............................................. 36.37 41.16 49.26 52.02 55.64 58.57 61.28 1.4% 

 Coal (dollars per million Btu) 

 at the minemouth16 ............................................. 1.80 2.04 2.45 2.60 2.79 2.94 3.08 1.4% 

 Average end-use17 .............................................. 2.42 2.57 2.77 2.94 3.10 3.25 3.42 1.0% 

			Average	electricity	(cents	per	kilowatthour)	...........	 10.0	 9.9	 9.4	 9.5	 9.7	 10.1	 10.8	 0.3%	

 

Appendix A

Reference case

Table A1. Total energy supply, disposition, and price summary

(quadrillion Btu per year, unless otherwise noted)
122 U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013

Reference case

Table A1. Total energy supply, disposition, and price summary (continued)

(quadrillion Btu per year, unless otherwise noted)

Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Outlook 2013 

Table A1. Total energy supply and disposition summary (continued)

(quadrillion	Btu	per	year,	unless otherwise noted)

Supply, disposition, and prices 

Reference case Annual 

growth 

2011-2040

2010 2011 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 (percent) 

Prices (nominal dollars per unit) 

 Crude oil spot prices (dollars per barrel) 

 Brent ................................................................... 79.61 111.26 121.73 147.90 180.04 219.73 268.50 3.1% 

 West Texas Intermediate .................................... 79.39 94.86 119.43 145.38 177.28 216.70 265.20 3.6% 

 Natural gas at Henry Hub (dollars per million Btu) . 4.37 3.98 4.77 6.14 7.45 9.55 12.92 4.1% 

 Coal (dollars per ton) 

 at the minemouth16 ............................................. 35.61 41.16 56.81 65.55 76.78 88.51 101.14 3.1% 

 Coal (dollars per million Btu) 

 at the minemouth16 ............................................. 1.76 2.04 2.83 3.27 3.85 4.44 5.08 3.2% 

 Average end-use17 .............................................. 2.37 2.57 3.19 3.70 4.28 4.92 5.65 2.8% 

			Average	electricity	(cents	per	kilowatthour)	...........	 9.8	 9.9	 10.8	 12.0	 13.4	 15.2	 17.8	 2.0%	

1

Includes waste coal. 

2

These values represent the energy obtained from uranium when it is used in light water reactors. The total energy content of uranium	 is	much	 larger,	 but	

alternative	processes	are	required	to	take	advantage	of	it.	 3

Includes	grid-connected	electricity	from	wood	and	wood	waste;	biomass,	such	as	corn,	used	for	liquid	fuels	production;	and	non-electric energy demand from 

wood. Refer to Table A17 for details. 4

Includes grid-connected electricity from landfill gas; biogenic municipal waste; wind; photovoltaic and solar thermal sources; and non-electric energy from 

renewable	sources,	such	as	active	and	passive	solar	systems.		Excludes	electricity	imports	using	renewable	sources	and	nonmarketed renewable energy. See 

Table	A17	for	selected	nonmarketed	residential	and	commercial	renewable	energy	data.	 5

Includes	non-biogenic	municipal	waste,	liquid	hydrogen,	methanol,	and	some	domestic	inputs	to	refineries.	

6

Includes	imports	of	finished	petroleum	products,	unfinished	oils,	alcohols,	ethers,	blending	components,	and	renewable	fuels	such as ethanol. 7

Includes imports of liquefied natural gas that are later re-exported. 

8

Includes	coal,	coal	coke	(net),	and	electricity	(net).		Excludes	imports	of	fuel	used	in	nuclear	power	plants.	

9

Includes	crude	oil,	petroleum	products,	ethanol,	and	biodiesel.	

10Includes re-exported liquefied natural gas. 11Balancing	item.		Includes	unaccounted	for	supply,	losses,	gains,	and	net	storage	withdrawals.	 12Includes	petroleum-derived	fuels	and	non-petroleum	derived	fuels,	such	as	ethanol	and	biodiesel,	and	coal-based	synthetic	liquids.		Petroleum	coke,	which	is	

a	 solid,	 is	 included.	 	 Also	 included	 are	 natural	 gas	 plant	 liquids	 and	 crude	 oil	 consumed	 as	 a	 fuel.	 	 Refer	 to	 Table	 A17	 for	 detailed renewable liquid fuels 

consumption. 13Excludes coal converted to coal-based synthetic liquids and natural gas. 14Includes	grid-connected	electricity	from	wood	and	wood	waste,	non-electric	energy	from	wood,	and	biofuels	heat	and	 coproducts	used in the production of 

liquid	fuels,	but	excludes	the	energy	content	of	the	liquid	fuels.	 15Includes	non-biogenic	municipal	waste,	liquid	hydrogen,	and	net	electricity	imports.	 16Includes	reported	prices	for	both	open	market	and	captive	mines.		Prices	weighted	by	production,	which	differs	from	average	minemouth prices published in 

EIA data reports where it is weighted by reported sales. 17Prices	weighted	by	consumption;	weighted	average	excludes	residential	and	commercial	prices,	and	export	free-alongside-ship	(f.a.s.) prices. 

Btu = British thermal unit. 

- - = Not applicable. 

Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. Data for 2010 and 2011 are model results and may differ slightly from official EIA 

data reports. 

Sources:		2010	natural	gas	supply	values:		U.S.	Energy	Information	Administration	(EIA),	Natural Gas Annual 2010,	DOE/EIA-0131(2010)	(Washington,	DC,	

December	2011).		2011	natural	gas	 supply	 values:		EIA,	Natural Gas Monthly,	DOE/EIA-0130Natural	Gas	Monthly,	DOE/EIA-0130(2012/07)	 (Washington,	DC,	

July 2012). 2010 and 2011 natural gas spot price at Henry Hub based on daily data from Natural Gas Intelligence. 2010 and 2011 coal minemouth and delivered 

coal	prices:		EIA,	Annual Coal Report 2011,	DOE/EIA-0584(2011)	 (Washington,	DC,	November	2012).		2011	petroleum	 supply	 values	and	 2010	 crude	oil	and	

lease	 condensate	 production:	 	 EIA,	 Petroleum Supply Annual 2011,	 DOE/EIA-0340(2011)/1	 (Washington,	 DC,	 August	 2012).	 	 Other	 2010	 petroleum	 supply	

values:		EIA,	Petroleum Supply Annual 2010,	DOE/EIA-0340(2010)/1	 (Washington,	DC,	 July	 2011).		 2010	 and	 2011	 crude	 oil	 spot	 prices:		Thomson	Reuters.		

Other 2010 and 2011 coal values: Quarterly Coal Report, October-December 2011,	DOE/EIA-0121(2011/4Q)	 (Washington,	DC,	March	2012).		Other	2010	and	

2011	 values:	 	 EIA,	 Annual Energy Review 2011,	 DOE/EIA-0384(2011)	 (Washington,	 DC,	 September	 2012).	 	 Projections:	 	 EIA,	 AEO2013	 National	 Energy	

Modeling	System	run	REF2013.D102312A.
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013 123

Reference case

Table A2. Energy consumption by sector and source

(quadrillion Btu per year, unless otherwise noted)

Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Outlook 2013 

Table A2. Energy consumption by sector and source

(quadrillion	Btu	per	year,	unless otherwise noted)

Sector and source 

Reference case Annual 

growth 

2011-2040

2010 2011 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 (percent) 

Energy consumption 

 Residential 

 Propane .............................................................. 0.53 0.53 0.52 0.52 0.52 0.52 0.52 -0.0% 

 Kerosene ............................................................ 0.03 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 -1.8% 

 Distillate fuel oil ................................................... 0.58 0.59 0.51 0.45 0.40 0.36 0.32 -2.1% 

 Liquid fuels and other petroleum subtotal ......... 1.14 1.14 1.05 0.98 0.93 0.89 0.86 -1.0% 

 Natural gas ......................................................... 4.89 4.83 4.62 4.54 4.46 4.34 4.23 -0.5% 

 Coal .................................................................... 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 -0.9% 

 Renewable energy1 ............................................ 0.44 0.45 0.44 0.44 0.45 0.45 0.45 0.1% 

 Electricity ............................................................ 4.93 4.86 4.84 5.08 5.36 5.67 6.03 0.7% 

 Delivered energy ............................................. 11.41 11.28 10.95 11.04 11.20 11.35 11.57 0.1%

 Electricity related losses ..................................... 10.35 10.20 9.66 10.04 10.45 10.90 11.50 0.4% 

 Total ................................................................. 21.76 21.48 20.62 21.08 21.65 22.25 23.08 0.2%

 

 Commercial 

 Propane .............................................................. 0.14 0.14 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.17 0.17 0.7% 

 Motor gasoline2 ................................................... 0.06 0.05 0.05 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.5% 

 Kerosene ............................................................ 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 2.1% 

 Distillate fuel oil ................................................... 0.41 0.42 0.34 0.33 0.32 0.31 0.30 -1.1% 

 Residual fuel oil .................................................. 0.08 0.07 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.6% 

 Liquid fuels and other petroleum subtotal ......... 0.69 0.69 0.65 0.64 0.64 0.63 0.63 -0.3% 

 Natural gas ......................................................... 3.17 3.23 3.40 3.43 3.50 3.59 3.68 0.4% 

 Coal .................................................................... 0.06 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 -0.0% 

 Renewable energy3 ............................................ 0.11 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.0% 

 Electricity ............................................................ 4.54 4.50 4.72 4.97 5.22 5.47 5.72 0.8% 

 Delivered energy ............................................. 8.57 8.60 8.95 9.22 9.54 9.86 10.21 0.6%

 Electricity related losses ..................................... 9.52 9.45 9.42 9.82 10.18 10.51 10.92 0.5% 

 Total ................................................................. 18.09 18.05 18.37 19.04 19.72 20.37 21.13 0.5%

 

 Industrial4

 Liquefied petroleum gases .................................. 2.12 2.10 2.46 2.54 2.47 2.40 2.30 0.3% 

 Propylene............................................................ 0.41 0.40 0.56 0.56 0.52 0.49 0.46 0.6% 

 Motor gasoline2 ................................................... 0.28 0.27 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.6% 

 Distillate fuel oil ................................................... 1.19 1.21 1.22 1.19 1.18 1.19 1.22 0.0% 

 Residual fuel oil .................................................. 0.12 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 -0.1% 

					Petrochemical	feedstocks	...................................		 0.94	 0.88	 1.03	 1.08	 1.08	 1.08	 1.09	 0.7%	

 Other petroleum5 ................................................ 3.70 3.61 3.54 3.48 3.46 3.53 3.65 0.0% 

 Liquid fuels and other petroleum subtotal ......... 8.76 8.57 9.25 9.28 9.14 9.11 9.16 0.2% 

 Natural gas ......................................................... 6.67 6.92 7.86 8.00 7.97 8.02 8.08 0.5% 

 Natural-gas-to-liquids heat and power ................ 0.00 0.00 0.13 0.16 0.21 0.27 0.33 - - 

 Lease and plant fuel6 .......................................... 1.31 1.42 1.57 1.68 1.73 1.84 1.97 1.1% 

 Natural gas subtotal .......................................... 7.98 8.34 9.56 9.84 9.91 10.13 10.38 0.8% 

 Metallurgical coal ................................................ 0.55 0.56 0.60 0.58 0.52 0.48 0.46 -0.7% 

 Other industrial coal ............................................ 1.06 1.04 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.02 1.05 0.0% 

 Coal-to-liquids heat and power ........................... 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.07 0.09 0.12 0.15 - - 

					Net	coal	coke	imports	.........................................		 -0.01	 0.01	 -0.01	 -0.03	 -0.04	 -0.06	 -0.05	 -	-	

 Coal subtotal ..................................................... 1.60 1.62 1.58 1.63 1.57 1.56 1.61 -0.0% 

 Biofuels heat and coproducts.............................. 0.85 0.67 0.82 0.82 0.85 0.97 1.37 2.5% 

 Renewable energy7 ............................................ 1.47 1.51 1.72 1.85 1.97 2.11 2.28 1.4% 

 Electricity ............................................................ 3.31 3.33 3.95 4.05 3.96 3.90 3.91 0.6% 

 Delivered energy ............................................. 23.98 24.04 26.87 27.46 27.40 27.77 28.71 0.6%

 Electricity related losses ..................................... 6.95 6.99 7.89 8.00 7.72 7.49 7.45 0.2% 

 Total ................................................................. 30.93 31.03 34.76 35.46 35.11 35.26 36.16 0.5%
124 U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013

Reference case

Table A2. Energy consumption by sector and source (continued)

(quadrillion Btu per year, unless otherwise noted)

Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Outlook 2013 

Table A2. Energy consumption by sector and source (continued)

(quadrillion	Btu	per	year,	unless otherwise noted)

Sector and source 

Reference case Annual 

growth 

2011-2040

2010 2011 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 (percent) 

 Transportation 

 Propane .............................................................. 0.04 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.07 0.08 0.08 1.3% 

 E858 .................................................................... 0.01 0.05 0.08 0.14 0.16 0.15 0.17 4.3% 

 Motor gasoline2 ................................................... 16.79 16.31 14.88 13.86 13.06 12.69 12.64 -0.9% 

 Jet fuel9 ............................................................... 3.07 3.01 3.11 3.20 3.28 3.35 3.42 0.4% 

 Distillate fuel oil10 ................................................ 5.82 5.91 7.28 7.52 7.61 7.73 7.90 1.0% 

 Residual fuel oil .................................................. 0.88 0.82 0.84 0.85 0.86 0.86 0.87 0.2% 

 Other petroleum11 ............................................... 0.17 0.17 0.15 0.15 0.16 0.16 0.16 -0.1% 

 Liquid fuels and other petroleum subtotal ......... 26.78 26.32 26.42 25.79 25.20 25.01 25.24 -0.1% 

 Pipeline fuel natural gas ..................................... 0.68 0.70 0.71 0.73 0.74 0.76 0.78 0.4% 

 Compressed / liquefied natural gas .................... 0.04 0.04 0.08 0.12 0.26 0.60 1.05 11.9% 

 Liquid hydrogen .................................................. 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 - - 

 Electricity ............................................................ 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.04 0.06 0.07 3.9% 

 Delivered energy ............................................. 27.52 27.09 27.24 26.68 26.25 26.43 27.14 0.0%

 Electricity related losses ..................................... 0.05 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.09 0.11 0.13 3.5% 

 Total ................................................................. 27.57 27.13 27.30 26.75 26.33 26.54 27.27 0.0%

 

 Delivered energy consumption for all 

 sectors 

 Liquefied petroleum gases .................................. 2.83 2.82 3.21 3.29 3.23 3.16 3.08 0.3% 

 Propylene............................................................ 0.41 0.40 0.56 0.56 0.52 0.49 0.46 0.6% 

 E858 .................................................................... 0.01 0.05 0.08 0.14 0.16 0.15 0.17 4.3% 

 Motor gasoline2 ................................................... 17.13 16.64 15.26 14.24 13.43 13.07 13.03 -0.8% 

 Jet fuel9 ............................................................... 3.07 3.01 3.11 3.20 3.28 3.35 3.42 0.4% 

 Kerosene ............................................................ 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 -0.3% 

 Distillate fuel oil ................................................... 8.00 8.12 9.35 9.49 9.51 9.58 9.74 0.6% 

 Residual fuel oil .................................................. 1.08 1.01 1.05 1.05 1.05 1.06 1.07 0.2% 

					Petrochemical	feedstocks	...................................		 0.94	 0.88	 1.03	 1.08	 1.08	 1.08	 1.09	 0.7%	

 Other petroleum12 ............................................... 3.86 3.77 3.69 3.63 3.61 3.68 3.80 0.0% 

 Liquid fuels and other petroleum subtotal ......... 37.37 36.72 37.37 36.69 35.90 35.64 35.88 -0.1% 

 Natural gas ......................................................... 14.77 15.03 15.95 16.08 16.19 16.54 17.05 0.4% 

 Natural-gas-to-liquids heat and power ................ 0.00 0.00 0.13 0.16 0.21 0.27 0.33 - - 

 Lease and plant fuel6 .......................................... 1.31 1.42 1.57 1.68 1.73 1.84 1.97 1.1% 

 Pipeline natural gas ............................................ 0.68 0.70 0.71 0.73 0.74 0.76 0.78 0.4% 

 Natural gas subtotal .......................................... 16.77 17.15 18.36 18.66 18.87 19.42 20.13 0.6% 

 Metallurgical coal ................................................ 0.55 0.56 0.60 0.58 0.52 0.48 0.46 -0.7% 

 Other coal ........................................................... 1.12 1.10 1.06 1.06 1.06 1.07 1.11 0.0% 

 Coal-to-liquids heat and power ........................... 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.07 0.09 0.12 0.15 - - 

					Net	coal	coke	imports	.........................................		 -0.01	 0.01	 -0.01	 -0.03	 -0.04	 -0.06	 -0.05	 -	-	

 Coal subtotal ..................................................... 1.67 1.67 1.64 1.69 1.63 1.61 1.67 -0.0% 

 Biofuels heat and coproducts.............................. 0.85 0.67 0.82 0.82 0.85 0.97 1.37 2.5% 

 Renewable energy13 ........................................... 2.01 2.08 2.28 2.42 2.54 2.68 2.86 1.1% 

 Liquid hydrogen .................................................. 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 - - 

 Electricity ............................................................ 12.81 12.71 13.54 14.13 14.59 15.08 15.72 0.7% 

 Delivered energy ............................................. 71.49 71.01 74.01 74.40 74.38 75.41 77.63 0.3%

 Electricity related losses ..................................... 26.86 26.69 27.03 27.94 28.43 29.00 30.00 0.4% 

 Total ................................................................. 98.35 97.70 101.04 102.34 102.81 104.41 107.64 0.3%

 

 Electric power14

 Distillate fuel oil ................................................... 0.08 0.06 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.9% 

 Residual fuel oil .................................................. 0.31 0.23 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.11 -2.6% 

 Liquid fuels and other petroleum subtotal ......... 0.39 0.30 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.19 -1.6% 

 Natural gas ......................................................... 7.55 7.76 8.40 8.63 9.08 9.64 9.70 0.8% 

 Steam coal .......................................................... 19.13 17.99 16.95 17.66 18.07 18.48 18.68 0.1% 

 Nuclear / uranium15 ............................................. 8.43 8.26 9.25 9.54 9.49 9.14 9.44 0.5% 

 Renewable energy16 ........................................... 3.85 4.74 5.49 5.77 5.93 6.38 7.44 1.6% 

 Electricity imports ................................................ 0.09 0.13 0.08 0.07 0.05 0.03 0.06 -2.4% 

 Total17 .............................................................. 39.67 39.40 40.57 42.07 43.02 44.08 45.73 0.5%
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013 125

Reference case

Table A2. Energy consumption by sector and source (continued)

(quadrillion Btu per year, unless otherwise noted)

Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Outlook 2013 

Table A2. Energy consumption by sector and source (continued)

(quadrillion	Btu	per	year,	unless otherwise noted)

Sector and source 

Reference case Annual 

growth 

2011-2040

2010 2011 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 (percent) 

 Total energy consumption 

 Liquefied petroleum gases .................................. 2.83 2.82 3.21 3.29 3.23 3.16 3.08 0.3% 

 Propylene............................................................ 0.41 0.40 0.56 0.56 0.52 0.49 0.46 0.6% 

 E858 .................................................................... 0.01 0.05 0.08 0.14 0.16 0.15 0.17 4.3% 

 Motor gasoline2 ................................................... 17.13 16.64 15.26 14.24 13.43 13.07 13.03 -0.8% 

 Jet fuel9 ............................................................... 3.07 3.01 3.11 3.20 3.28 3.35 3.42 0.4% 

 Kerosene ............................................................ 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 -0.3% 

 Distillate fuel oil ................................................... 8.08 8.18 9.43 9.57 9.59 9.66 9.82 0.6% 

 Residual fuel oil .................................................. 1.38 1.24 1.15 1.15 1.15 1.16 1.17 -0.2% 

					Petrochemical	feedstocks	...................................		 0.94	 0.88	 1.03	 1.08	 1.08	 1.08	 1.09	 0.7%	

 Other petroleum12 ............................................... 3.86 3.77 3.69 3.63 3.61 3.68 3.80 0.0% 

 Liquid fuels and other petroleum subtotal ......... 37.76 37.02 37.54 36.87 36.08 35.82 36.07 -0.1% 

 Natural gas ......................................................... 22.32 22.79 24.36 24.71 25.27 26.18 26.75 0.6% 

 Natural-gas-to-liquids heat and power ................ 0.00 0.00 0.13 0.16 0.21 0.27 0.33 - - 

 Lease and plant fuel6 .......................................... 1.31 1.42 1.57 1.68 1.73 1.84 1.97 1.1% 

 Pipeline natural gas ............................................ 0.68 0.70 0.71 0.73 0.74 0.76 0.78 0.4% 

 Natural gas subtotal .......................................... 24.32 24.91 26.77 27.28 27.95 29.06 29.83 0.6% 

 Metallurgical coal ................................................ 0.55 0.56 0.60 0.58 0.52 0.48 0.46 -0.7% 

 Other coal ........................................................... 20.26 19.09 18.01 18.72 19.12 19.55 19.79 0.1% 

 Coal-to-liquids heat and power ........................... 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.07 0.09 0.12 0.15 - - 

					Net	coal	coke	imports	.........................................		 -0.01	 0.01	 -0.01	 -0.03	 -0.04	 -0.06	 -0.05	 -	-	

 Coal subtotal ..................................................... 20.81 19.66 18.59 19.35 19.70 20.09 20.35 0.1% 

 Nuclear / uranium15 ............................................. 8.43 8.26 9.25 9.54 9.49 9.14 9.44 0.5% 

 Biofuels heat and coproducts.............................. 0.85 0.67 0.82 0.82 0.85 0.97 1.37 2.5% 

 Renewable energy18 ........................................... 5.86 6.82 7.77 8.18 8.47 9.07 10.30 1.4% 

 Liquid hydrogen .................................................. 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 - - 

 Electricity imports ................................................ 0.09 0.13 0.08 0.07 0.05 0.03 0.06 -2.4% 

 Total ................................................................. 98.35 97.70 101.04 102.34 102.81 104.41 107.64 0.3%

 

Energy use and related statistics 

 Delivered energy use ............................................ 71.49 71.01 74.01 74.40 74.38 75.41 77.63 0.3% 

 Total energy use ................................................... 98.35 97.70 101.04 102.34 102.81 104.41 107.64 0.3% 

 Ethanol consumed in motor gasoline and E85 ..... 1.11 1.17 1.34 1.29 1.24 1.20 1.21 0.1% 

 Population (millions) ............................................. 310.06 312.38 340.45 356.46 372.41 388.35 404.39 0.9% 

			Gross	domestic	product	(billion	2005	dollars)	.......		 13,063	 13,299	 16,859	 18,985	 21,355	 24,095	 27,277	 2.5%	

			Carbon	dioxide	emissions	(million	metric	tons)	.....		 5,633.6	 5,470.7	 5,454.6	 5,501.4	 5,522.8	 5,606.7	 5,691.1	 0.1%	

1

Includes	wood	used	for	residential	heating.	See	Table	A4	and/or	Table	A17	for	estimates	of	nonmarketed	renewable	energy	consumption for geothermal heat 

pumps,	solar	thermal	water	heating,	and	electricity	generation	from	wind	and	solar	photovoltaic	sources.	 2

Includes ethanol (blends of 15 percent or less) and ethers blended into gasoline. 

3

Excludes	ethanol.		Includes	commercial	sector	consumption	of	wood	and	wood	waste,	landfill	gas,	municipal	waste,	and	other	biomass for combined heat and 

power.		See	Table	A5	and/or	Table	A17	for	estimates	of	nonmarketed	 renewable	energy	consumption	for	solar	thermal	water	heating and electricity generation 

from wind and solar photovoltaic sources. 4

Includes	energy	for	combined	heat	and	power	plants	that	have	a	non-regulatory	status,	and	small	on-site	generating	systems.	

5

Includes	petroleum	coke,	asphalt,	road	oil,	lubricants,	still	gas,	and	miscellaneous	petroleum	products.	

6

Represents	natural	gas	used	in	well,	field,	and	lease	operations,	in	natural	gas	processing	plant	machinery,	and	for	liquefaction in export facilities. 7

Includes	consumption	of	energy	produced	from	hydroelectric,	wood	and	wood	waste,	municipal	waste,	and	other	biomass	sources.		Excludes ethanol blends 

(15 percent or less) in motor gasoline. 8

E85 refers to a blend of 85 percent ethanol (renewable) and 15 percent motor gasoline (nonrenewable). To address cold starting	issues,	the	percentage	of	

ethanol varies seasonally. The annual average ethanol content of 74 percent is used for this forecast. 9

Includes	only	kerosene	type.	

10Diesel fuel for on- and off- road use. 11Includes aviation gasoline and lubricants. 12Includes	unfinished	oils,	natural	gasoline,	motor	gasoline	blending	components,	aviation	gasoline,	lubricants,	still	gas,	asphalt,	road	oil,	petroleum	coke,	and	

miscellaneous petroleum products. 13Includes	electricity	generated	for	sale	to	the	grid	and	for	own	use	from	renewable	sources,	and	non-electric	energy	from	renewable sources. Excludes ethanol 

and	nonmarketed	renewable	energy	consumption	for	geothermal	heat	pumps,	buildings	photovoltaic	systems,	and	solar	thermal	water heaters. 14Includes consumption of energy by electricity-only and combined heat and power plants that have a regulatory status. 15These values represent the energy obtained from uranium when it is used in light water reactors. The total energy content of uranium	is	much	larger,	but	

alternative	processes	are	required	to	take	advantage	of	it.	 16Includes	 conventional	 hydroelectric,	 geothermal,	 wood	 and	 wood	 waste,	 biogenic	 municipal	 waste,	 other	 biomass,	 wind,	 photovoltaic,	 and	 solar	 thermal	

sources. Excludes net electricity imports. 17Includes non-biogenic municipal waste not included above. 18Includes	 conventional	 hydroelectric,	 geothermal,	 wood	 and	 wood	 waste,	 biogenic	 municipal	 waste,	 other	 biomass,	 wind,	 photovoltaic,	 and	 solar	 thermal	

sources.		Excludes	ethanol,	net	electricity	imports,	and	nonmarketed	renewable	energy	consumption	for	geothermal	heat	pumps,	buildings	photovoltaic	systems,	

and solar thermal water heaters. 

Btu = British thermal unit. 

- - = Not applicable. 

Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. Data for 2010 and 2011 are model results and may differ slightly from official EIA 

data reports. 

Sources:	 	 2010	 and	 2011	 consumption	 based	 on:	 	 U.S.	 Energy	 Information	 Administration	 (EIA),	 Annual Energy Review 2011,	 DOE/EIA-0384(2011)	

(Washington,	DC,	September	2012).	2010	and	2011	population	and	gross	domestic	product:	IHS	Global	Insight	Industry	and	Employment	models,	August	2012.		

2010	 and	 2011	 carbon	 dioxide	 emissions:		EIA,	Annual Energy Review 2011,	DOE/EIA-0384(2011)	 (Washington,	DC,	September	2012).		2010	 carbon	dioxide	

emissions:	 	 EIA,	 Monthly Energy Review,	 DOE/EIA-0035(2011/10)	 (Washington,	 DC,	 October	 2011).	 	 2011	 carbon	 dioxide	 emissions:	 	 EIA,	 Monthly Energy 

Review,	DOE/EIA-0035(2012/08)	(Washington,	DC,	August	2012).		Projections:		EIA,	AEO2013	National	Energy	Modeling	System	run	REF2013.D102312A.
126 U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013

Reference case

Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Outlook 2013 

Table A3. Energy prices by sector and source

(2011 dollars per million Btu, unless otherwise noted)

Sector and source 

Reference case Annual 

growth 

2011-2040

2010 2011 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 (percent) 

Residential 

 Propane ................................................................ 27.61 25.06 23.41 24.77 25.73 26.70 27.99 0.4% 

 Distillate fuel oil ..................................................... 21.77 26.38 26.91 29.08 31.26 33.71 36.54 1.1% 

 Natural gas ........................................................... 11.36 10.80 11.78 12.67 13.37 14.60 16.36 1.4% 

 Electricity .............................................................. 34.52 34.34 33.62 33.96 34.56 35.42 37.10 0.3% 

 

Commercial

 Propane ................................................................ 24.10 22.10 20.04 21.74 22.97 24.23 25.94 0.6% 

 Distillate fuel oil ..................................................... 21.35 25.87 24.26 26.51 28.51 30.91 33.74 0.9% 

 Residual fuel oil .................................................... 11.39 19.17 14.82 16.60 18.77 20.89 23.41 0.7% 

 Natural gas ........................................................... 9.40 8.84 9.47 10.19 10.70 11.68 13.21 1.4% 

 Electricity .............................................................. 30.49 29.98 28.57 28.49 28.65 29.66 31.75 0.2% 

 

Industrial1

 Propane ................................................................ 23.73 22.54 20.51 22.33 23.64 24.97 26.78 0.6% 

 Distillate fuel oil ..................................................... 21.87 26.50 24.67 27.02 28.91 31.31 34.16 0.9% 

 Residual fuel oil .................................................... 11.30 18.86 17.19 18.96 21.09 23.25 25.78 1.1% 

 Natural gas2 .......................................................... 5.48 4.89 5.53 6.15 6.56 7.45 8.88 2.1% 

 Metallurgical coal .................................................. 5.96 7.01 8.75 9.36 10.09 10.69 11.11 1.6% 

 Other industrial coal .............................................. 2.77 3.43 3.44 3.56 3.71 3.88 4.06 0.6% 

 Coal to liquids ....................................................... - - - - - - 2.30 2.55 2.76 2.95 - - 

 Electricity .............................................................. 20.26 19.98 18.72 19.18 19.73 20.80 22.74 0.4% 

 

Transportation 

 Propane ................................................................ 27.52 26.06 24.48 25.83 26.80 27.77 29.07 0.4% 

 E853 ...................................................................... 25.56 25.30 29.64 27.27 26.94 29.19 30.58 0.7% 

 Motor gasoline4 ..................................................... 23.18 28.70 27.84 29.26 30.73 32.99 36.18 0.8% 

 Jet fuel5 ................................................................. 16.57 22.49 21.50 23.73 26.03 28.52 31.07 1.1% 

 Diesel fuel (distillate fuel oil)6 ................................ 22.38 26.15 26.61 28.98 30.81 33.19 36.05 1.1% 

 Residual fuel oil .................................................... 10.62 17.83 14.91 16.58 18.34 20.25 22.45 0.8% 

 Natural gas7 .......................................................... 16.51 16.14 16.87 17.97 18.90 19.86 21.20 0.9% 

 Electricity .............................................................. 33.91 32.77 29.60 30.40 31.53 32.84 35.07 0.2% 

 

Electric power8

 Distillate fuel oil ..................................................... 19.22 23.30 22.45 24.61 26.80 29.23 32.03 1.1% 

 Residual fuel oil .................................................... 12.11 15.97 24.94 27.29 29.36 31.85 34.54 2.7% 

 Natural gas ........................................................... 5.26 4.77 4.90 5.58 6.05 6.98 8.38 2.0% 

 Steam coal ............................................................ 2.30 2.38 2.52 2.69 2.87 3.03 3.20 1.0% 

 

Average price to all users9

 Propane ................................................................ 16.23 17.13 13.69 16.07 18.14 20.43 23.79 1.1% 

 E853 ...................................................................... 25.56 25.30 29.64 27.27 26.94 29.19 30.58 0.7% 

 Motor gasoline4 ..................................................... 23.06 28.47 27.84 29.26 30.72 32.99 36.17 0.8% 

 Jet fuel5 ................................................................. 16.57 22.49 21.50 23.73 26.03 28.52 31.07 1.1% 

 Distillate fuel oil ..................................................... 22.17 26.18 26.25 28.62 30.48 32.88 35.73 1.1% 

 Residual fuel oil .................................................... 11.06 17.65 15.97 17.72 19.59 21.61 23.95 1.1% 

 Natural gas ........................................................... 7.27 6.68 7.07 7.76 8.27 9.31 10.94 1.7% 

 Metallurgical coal .................................................. 5.96 7.01 8.75 9.36 10.09 10.69 11.11 1.6% 

 Other coal ............................................................. 2.33 2.45 2.57 2.74 2.92 3.08 3.25 1.0% 

 Coal to liquids ....................................................... - - - - - - 2.30 2.55 2.76 2.95 - - 

 Electricity .............................................................. 29.40 29.03 27.50 27.79 28.41 29.55 31.58 0.3% 

 

Non-renewable energy expenditures by 

 sector (billion 2011 dollars) 

 Residential ............................................................ 253.56 248.08 243.44 256.13 271.05 290.43 319.63 0.9% 

 Commercial........................................................... 182.47 179.97 181.68 192.15 203.80 221.86 249.60 1.1%

 Industrial ............................................................... 210.38 225.18 259.03 283.62 294.99 316.87 353.70 1.6% 

 Transportation ....................................................... 584.31 718.25 694.73 722.24 749.40 808.74 900.68 0.8% 

 Total non-renewable expenditures ...................... 1,230.73 1,371.48 1,378.87 1,454.13 1,519.24 1,637.91 1,823.61 1.0% 

 Transportation renewable expenditures .............. 0.16 1.24 2.44 3.92 4.39 4.43 5.05 5.0% 

 Total expenditures ............................................ 1,230.88 1,372.71 1,381.31 1,458.06 1,523.63 1,642.34 1,828.66 1.0% 

Table A3. Energy prices by sector and source

(2011 dollars per million Btu, unless otherwise noted)
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013 127

Reference case

Table A3. Energy prices by sector and source (continued)

(nominal dollars per million Btu, unless otherwise noted)

Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Outlook 2013 

Table A3. Energy prices by sector and source (continued)

(nominal	dollars	per	million	Btu,	unless	otherwise	noted)

Sector and source 

Reference case Annual 

growth 

2011-2040

2010 2011 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 (percent) 

Residential 

 Propane ................................................................ 27.04 25.06 27.00 31.21 35.51 40.35 46.20 2.1% 

 Distillate fuel oil ..................................................... 21.31 26.38 31.03 36.64 43.14 50.93 60.31 2.9% 

 Natural gas ........................................................... 11.12 10.80 13.58 15.97 18.45 22.06 27.01 3.2% 

 Electricity .............................................................. 33.80 34.34 38.76 42.80 47.69 53.52 61.23 2.0% 

 

Commercial

 Propane ................................................................ 23.60 22.10 23.11 27.39 31.70 36.62 42.82 2.3% 

 Distillate fuel oil ..................................................... 20.91 25.87 27.97 33.41 39.34 46.71 55.68 2.7% 

 Residual fuel oil .................................................... 11.15 19.17 17.09 20.92 25.90 31.56 38.64 2.4% 

 Natural gas ........................................................... 9.20 8.84 10.92 12.85 14.76 17.65 21.81 3.2% 

 Electricity .............................................................. 29.86 29.98 32.94 35.90 39.54 44.82 52.40 1.9% 

 

Industrial1

 Propane ................................................................ 23.23 22.54 23.65 28.14 32.62 37.74 44.20 2.3% 

 Distillate fuel oil ..................................................... 21.42 26.50 28.45 34.05 39.89 47.31 56.39 2.6% 

 Residual fuel oil .................................................... 11.06 18.86 19.82 23.89 29.10 35.13 42.55 2.8% 

 Natural gas2 .......................................................... 5.37 4.89 6.38 7.75 9.05 11.25 14.66 3.9% 

 Metallurgical coal .................................................. 5.84 7.01 10.09 11.79 13.92 16.15 18.34 3.4% 

 Other industrial coal .............................................. 2.71 3.43 3.97 4.48 5.12 5.86 6.70 2.3% 

 Coal to liquids ....................................................... - - - - - - 2.90 3.52 4.17 4.87 - - 

 Electricity .............................................................. 19.84 19.98 21.59 24.17 27.22 31.42 37.54 2.2% 

 

Transportation 

 Propane ................................................................ 26.95 26.06 28.22 32.56 36.98 41.97 47.97 2.1% 

 E853 ...................................................................... 25.03 25.30 34.18 34.37 37.18 44.10 50.46 2.4% 

 Motor gasoline4 ..................................................... 22.70 28.70 32.10 36.88 42.41 49.85 59.72 2.6% 

 Jet fuel5 ................................................................. 16.22 22.49 24.79 29.90 35.92 43.09 51.27 2.9% 

 Diesel fuel (distillate fuel oil)6 ................................ 21.91 26.15 30.68 36.52 42.52 50.16 59.50 2.9% 

 Residual fuel oil .................................................... 10.40 17.83 17.19 20.89 25.31 30.60 37.06 2.6% 

 Natural gas7 .......................................................... 16.17 16.14 19.46 22.65 26.08 30.01 34.98 2.7% 

 Electricity .............................................................. 33.20 32.77 34.13 38.31 43.51 49.63 57.88 2.0% 

 

Electric power8

 Distillate fuel oil ..................................................... 18.82 23.30 25.89 31.02 36.98 44.17 52.87 2.9% 

 Residual fuel oil .................................................... 11.86 15.97 28.76 34.39 40.52 48.13 57.01 4.5% 

 Natural gas ........................................................... 5.15 4.77 5.65 7.03 8.35 10.55 13.83 3.7% 

 Steam coal ............................................................ 2.25 2.38 2.90 3.39 3.96 4.58 5.28 2.8% 

 
128 U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013

Reference case

Table A3. Energy prices by sector and source (continued)

(nominal dollars per million Btu, unless otherwise noted)

Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Outlook 2013 

Table A3. Energy prices by sector and source (continued)

(nominal	dollars	per	million	Btu,	unless	otherwise	noted)

Sector and source 

Reference case Annual 

growth 

2011-2040

2010 2011 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 (percent) 

Average price to all users9

 Propane ................................................................ 15.89 17.13 15.78 20.26 25.03 30.86 39.26 2.9% 

 E853 ...................................................................... 25.03 25.30 34.18 34.37 37.18 44.10 50.46 2.4% 

 Motor gasoline4 ..................................................... 22.58 28.47 32.10 36.87 42.40 49.84 59.70 2.6% 

 Jet fuel5 ................................................................. 16.22 22.49 24.79 29.90 35.92 43.09 51.27 2.9% 

 Distillate fuel oil ..................................................... 21.71 26.18 30.27 36.06 42.07 49.68 58.97 2.8% 

 Residual fuel oil .................................................... 10.83 17.65 18.41 22.33 27.03 32.66 39.53 2.8% 

 Natural gas ........................................................... 7.12 6.68 8.16 9.78 11.41 14.06 18.06 3.5% 

 Metallurgical coal .................................................. 5.84 7.01 10.09 11.79 13.92 16.15 18.34 3.4% 

 Other coal ............................................................. 2.28 2.45 2.97 3.46 4.03 4.65 5.37 2.7% 

 Coal to liquids ....................................................... - - - - - - 2.90 3.52 4.17 4.87 - - 

 Electricity .............................................................. 28.79 29.03 31.71 35.02 39.20 44.65 52.12 2.0% 

 

Non-renewable energy expenditures by 

 sector (billion nominal dollars) 

 Residential ............................................................ 248.27 248.08 280.71 322.77 374.04 438.86 527.54 2.6% 

 Commercial........................................................... 178.66 179.97 209.48 242.14 281.23 335.25 411.95 2.9%

 Industrial ............................................................... 205.99 225.18 298.68 357.41 407.07 478.81 583.76 3.3% 

 Transportation .......................................................		 572.11	 718.25	 801.07	 910.16	 1,034.13	 1,222.05	 1,486.52	 2.5%	

 Total non-renewable expenditures ......................		 1,205.03	 1,371.48	 1,589.94	 1,832.48	 2,096.47	 2,474.97	 3,009.77	 2.7%	

 Transportation renewable expenditures .............. 0.15 1.24 2.81 4.95 6.06 6.70 8.33 6.8% 

 Total expenditures ............................................ 1,205.18 1,372.71 1,592.75 1,837.43 2,102.52 2,481.67 3,018.11 2.8% 

1

Includes	energy	for	combined	heat	and	power	plants	that	have	a	non-regulatory	status,	and	small	on-site	generating	systems.	

2

Excludes use for lease and plant fuel. 

3

E85 refers to a blend of 85 percent ethanol (renewable) and 15 percent motor gasoline (nonrenewable). To address cold starting	issues,	the	percentage	of	

ethanol varies seasonally. The annual average ethanol content of 74 percent is used for this forecast. 4

Sales	weighted-average	price	for	all	grades.		Includes	Federal,	State	and	local	taxes.	

5

Kerosene-type	jet	fuel.		Includes	Federal	and	State	taxes	while	excluding	county	and	local	taxes.	

6

Diesel	fuel	for	on-road	use.		Includes	Federal	and	State	taxes	while	excluding	county	and	local	taxes.	

7

Natural gas used as a vehicle fuel. Includes estimated motor vehicle fuel taxes and estimated dispensing costs or charges. 

8

Includes electricity-only and combined heat and power plants that have a regulatory status. 

9

Weighted averages of end-use fuel prices are derived from the prices shown in each sector and the corresponding sectoral consumption. 

Btu = British thermal unit. 

- - = Not applicable. 

Note: Data for 2010 and 2011 are model results and may differ slightly from official EIA data reports. 

Sources:		 2010	 and	 2011	 prices	for	motor	 gasoline,	 distillate	fuel	 oil,	 and	 jet	fuel	 are	 based	 on	 prices	 in	the	 U.S.	Energy	Information	Administration	 (EIA),	

Petroleum Marketing Monthly,	DOE/EIA-0380(2012/08)	(Washington,	DC,	August	2012).		2010	residential,	commercial,	and	industrial	natural	gas	delivered	prices:

EIA, Natural Gas Annual 2010,	 DOE/EIA-0131(2010)	 (Washington,	 DC,	 December	 2011).	 	 2011	 residential,	 commercial,	 and	 industrial	 natural	 gas	 delivered	

prices:		EIA,	Natural Gas Monthly,	DOE/EIA-0130Natural	Gas	Monthly,	DOE/EIA-0130(2012/07)	(Washington,	DC,	July	2012).		2010	transportation	sector	natural	

gas	delivered	prices	are	based	on:		EIA,	Natural Gas Annual 2010,	DOE/EIA-0131(2010)	(Washington,	DC,	December	2011)	and	estimated	State	taxes,	Federal	

taxes,	and	dispensing	costs	or	charges.		2011	transportation	sector	natural	gas	delivered	prices	are	model	results.		2010	and	2011 electric power sector distillate 

and	 residual	fuel	 oil	 prices:	 EIA,	Monthly Energy Review,	 DOE/EIA-0035(2012/09)	 (Washington,	 DC,	September	 2012).		 2010	 and	 2011	 electric	 power	 sector	

natural	 gas	 prices:	 EIA,	Electric Power Monthly,	 DOE/EIA-0226,	Electric	Power	Monthly,	 DOE/EIA-0226,	April	 2011	 and	April	 2012,	 Table	 4.2,	 and	EIA,	State 

Energy Data Report 2010,	 DOE/EIA-0214(2010)	 (Washington,	 DC,	 June	 2012).	 	 2010	 and	 2011	 coal	 prices	 based	 on:		 EIA,	Quarterly Coal Report, OctoberDecember 2011,	DOE/EIA-0121(2011/4Q)	(Washington,	DC,	March	2012)	and	EIA,	AEO2013	National	Energy	Modeling	System	run	REF2013.D102312A.		2010

and	2011	electricity	prices:		EIA,	Annual Energy Review 2011,	DOE/EIA-0384(2011)	(Washington,	DC,	September	2012).		2010	and	2011	E85	prices	derived	from	

monthly	prices	in	the	Clean	Cities	Alternative	Fuel	Price	Report.		Projections:		EIA,	AEO2013	National	Energy	Modeling	System	run	REF2013.D102312A.
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013 129

Reference case

Table A4. Residential sector key indicators and consumption

(quadrillion Btu per year, unless otherwise noted)

Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Outlook 2013 

Table A4. Residential sector key indicators and consumption

(quadrillion	Btu	per	year,	unless otherwise noted)

Key indicators and consumption 

Reference case Annual 

growth 

2011-2040

2010 2011 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 (percent) 

Key indicators 

 Households (millions) 

 Single-family ....................................................... 82.85 83.56 91.25 95.37 99.34 103.03 106.77 0.8% 

 Multifamily ........................................................... 25.78 26.07 29.82 32.05 34.54 37.05 39.53 1.4% 

 Mobile homes ..................................................... 6.60 6.54 6.45 6.60 6.75 6.88 7.02 0.2% 

 Total ................................................................. 115.23 116.17 127.52 134.02 140.63 146.96 153.32 1.0%

 

 Average house square footage ......................... 1,653 1,659 1,704 1,724 1,740 1,754 1,767 0.2%

Energy intensity 

 (million Btu per household) 

 Delivered energy consumption ........................... 99.2 97.2 86.0 82.5 79.7 77.3 75.5 -0.9% 

 Total energy consumption .................................. 189.0 185.0 161.7 157.4 154.0 151.4 150.6 -0.7% 

 (thousand Btu per square foot) 

 Delivered energy consumption ........................... 60.0 58.6 50.4 47.8 45.8 44.1 42.7 -1.1% 

 Total energy consumption .................................. 114.3 111.5 94.9 91.3 88.5 86.3 85.2 -0.9% 

 

Delivered energy consumption by fuel 

 Electricity

 Space heating ..................................................... 0.30 0.27 0.29 0.30 0.31 0.32 0.32 0.6% 

 Space cooling ..................................................... 0.92 0.93 0.95 1.04 1.14 1.23 1.32 1.2% 

 Water heating ..................................................... 0.45 0.45 0.50 0.52 0.53 0.54 0.55 0.7% 

 Refrigeration ....................................................... 0.38 0.38 0.38 0.39 0.41 0.43 0.45 0.6% 

					Cooking	..............................................................		 0.11	 0.11	 0.12	 0.13	 0.14	 0.15	 0.16	 1.3%	

 Clothes dryers ..................................................... 0.20 0.20 0.22 0.23 0.24 0.25 0.26 1.0% 

					Freezers	.............................................................		 0.08	 0.08	 0.08	 0.08	 0.08	 0.08	 0.09	 0.1%	

 Lighting ............................................................... 0.65 0.63 0.45 0.40 0.38 0.37 0.38 -1.8% 

 Clothes washers1 ................................................ 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.03 -0.8% 

 Dishwashers1 ...................................................... 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.11 0.12 0.13 0.8% 

 Televisions and related equipment2 .................... 0.32 0.32 0.35 0.37 0.40 0.43 0.45 1.2% 

 Computers and related equipment3 .................... 0.16 0.16 0.13 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.13 -0.8% 

					Furnace	fans	and	boiler	circulation	pumps	.........		 0.13	 0.13	 0.14	 0.14	 0.14	 0.14	 0.14	 0.2%	

 Other uses4 ......................................................... 1.11 1.07 1.08 1.21 1.33 1.46 1.62 1.4% 

 Delivered energy ............................................. 4.93 4.86 4.84 5.08 5.36 5.67 6.03 0.7%

 Natural gas 

 Space heating ..................................................... 3.32 3.25 3.02 2.92 2.85 2.77 2.67 -0.7% 

 Space cooling ..................................................... 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.1% 

 Water heating ..................................................... 1.30 1.30 1.33 1.33 1.31 1.27 1.26 -0.1% 

					Cooking	..............................................................		 0.22	 0.22	 0.22	 0.22	 0.23	 0.23	 0.24	 0.3%	

 Clothes dryers ..................................................... 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.7% 

 Delivered energy ............................................. 4.89 4.83 4.62 4.54 4.46 4.34 4.23 -0.5%

 

 Distillate fuel oil 

 Space heating ..................................................... 0.49 0.50 0.45 0.40 0.36 0.32 0.29 -1.9% 

 Water heating ..................................................... 0.10 0.09 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.03 -3.3% 

 Delivered energy ............................................. 0.58 0.59 0.51 0.45 0.40 0.36 0.32 -2.1%

 

 Propane 

 Space heating ..................................................... 0.28 0.27 0.25 0.24 0.23 0.22 0.21 -0.8% 

 Water heating ..................................................... 0.07 0.07 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.04 -1.8% 

					Cooking	..............................................................		 0.03	 0.03	 0.03	 0.03	 0.03	 0.03	 0.02	 -0.7%	

 Other uses5 ......................................................... 0.15 0.16 0.19 0.21 0.22 0.23 0.25 1.5% 

 Delivered energy ............................................. 0.53 0.53 0.52 0.52 0.52 0.52 0.52 -0.0%

 

			Marketed	renewables	(wood)6 .............................. 0.44 0.45 0.44 0.44 0.45 0.45 0.45 0.1% 

 Other fuels7 ........................................................... 0.04 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 -1.5% 
130 U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013

Reference case

Table A4. Residential sector key indicators and consumption (continued)

(quadrillion Btu per year, unless otherwise noted)

Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Outlook 2013 

Table A4. Residential sector key indicators and consumption (continued)

(quadrillion	Btu	per	year,	unless otherwise noted)

Key indicators and consumption 

Reference case Annual 

growth 

2011-2040

2010 2011 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 (percent) 

Delivered energy consumption by end use 

 Space heating ..................................................... 4.86 4.76 4.47 4.32 4.22 4.09 3.96 -0.6% 

 Space cooling ..................................................... 0.92 0.93 0.95 1.04 1.14 1.23 1.32 1.2% 

 Water heating ..................................................... 1.91 1.91 1.94 1.95 1.93 1.89 1.89 -0.0% 

 Refrigeration ....................................................... 0.38 0.38 0.38 0.39 0.41 0.43 0.45 0.6% 

					Cooking	..............................................................		 0.36	 0.36	 0.37	 0.38	 0.40	 0.41	 0.42	 0.6%	

 Clothes dryers ..................................................... 0.25 0.25 0.28 0.29 0.30 0.32 0.33 0.9% 

					Freezers	.............................................................		 0.08	 0.08	 0.08	 0.08	 0.08	 0.08	 0.09	 0.1%	

 Lighting ............................................................... 0.65 0.63 0.45 0.40 0.38 0.37 0.38 -1.8% 

 Clothes washers1 ................................................ 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.03 -0.8% 

 Dishwashers1 ...................................................... 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.11 0.12 0.13 0.8% 

 Televisions and related equipment2 .................... 0.32 0.32 0.35 0.37 0.40 0.43 0.45 1.2% 

 Computers and related equipment3 .................... 0.16 0.16 0.13 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.13 -0.8% 

					Furnace	fans	and	boiler	circulation	pumps	.........		 0.13	 0.13	 0.14	 0.14	 0.14	 0.14	 0.14	 0.2%	

 Other uses8 ......................................................... 1.26 1.23 1.28 1.41 1.55 1.69 1.87 1.5% 

 Delivered energy ............................................. 11.41 11.28 10.95 11.04 11.20 11.35 11.57 0.1%

 

Electricity related losses ...................................... 10.35 10.20 9.66 10.04 10.45 10.90 11.50 0.4%

Total energy consumption by end use 

 Space heating ..................................................... 5.49 5.33 5.05 4.93 4.83 4.71 4.57 -0.5% 

 Space cooling ..................................................... 2.84 2.88 2.86 3.10 3.35 3.60 3.84 1.0% 

 Water heating ..................................................... 2.85 2.85 2.95 2.99 2.97 2.92 2.94 0.1% 

 Refrigeration ....................................................... 1.16 1.16 1.14 1.16 1.21 1.25 1.31 0.4% 

					Cooking	..............................................................		 0.58	 0.59	 0.62	 0.65	 0.67	 0.70	 0.72	 0.7%	

 Clothes dryers ..................................................... 0.66 0.66 0.71 0.74 0.77 0.80 0.83 0.8% 

					Freezers	.............................................................		 0.25	 0.26	 0.25	 0.25	 0.25	 0.24	 0.25	 -0.1%	

 Lighting ............................................................... 2.02 1.97 1.35 1.19 1.11 1.09 1.10 -2.0% 

 Clothes washers1 ................................................ 0.10 0.10 0.08 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 -1.0% 

 Dishwashers1 ...................................................... 0.32 0.32 0.31 0.31 0.33 0.35 0.37 0.5% 

 Televisions and related equipment2 .................... 0.98 0.98 1.05 1.12 1.18 1.25 1.32 1.0% 

 Computers and related equipment3 .................... 0.49 0.49 0.39 0.37 0.36 0.36 0.36 -1.0% 

					Furnace	fans	and	boiler	circulation	pumps	.........		 0.42	 0.42	 0.42	 0.42	 0.42	 0.42	 0.41	 -0.0%	

 Other uses8 ......................................................... 3.60 3.48 3.44 3.80 4.14 4.49 4.97 1.2% 

 Total ................................................................. 21.76 21.48 20.62 21.08 21.65 22.25 23.08 0.2%

 

Nonmarketed renewables9

 Geothermal heat pumps ..................................... 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.03 4.3% 

 Solar hot water heating ....................................... 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 1.6% 

 Solar photovoltaic ............................................... 0.01 0.02 0.14 0.15 0.17 0.18 0.21 9.1% 

 Wind ................................................................... 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 7.0% 

 Total ................................................................. 0.03 0.04 0.20 0.21 0.22 0.24 0.27 6.9%

 

Heating degree days10 ........................................... 4,388 4,240 4,054 3,978 3,903 3,829 3,756 -0.4%

Cooling degree days10 ........................................... 1,498 1,528 1,499 1,545 1,591 1,638 1,685 0.3%

1

Does not include water heating portion of load. 

2

Includes	televisions,	set-top	boxes,	and	video	game	consoles.	

3

Includes	desktop	and	laptop	computers,	monitors,	printers,	speakers,	networking	equipment,	and	uninterruptible	power	supplies.	

4

Includes	small	electric	devices,	heating	elements,	and	motors	not	listed	above.		Electric	vehicles	are	included	in	the	transportation sector. 5

Includes such appliances as outdoor grills and mosquito traps. 

6

Includes wood used for primary and secondary heating in wood stoves or fireplaces as reported in the Residential Energy Consumption Survey 2005. 7

Includes	kerosene	and	coal.	

8

Includes all other uses listed above. 

9

Consumption	determined	by	using	the	fossil	fuel	equivalent	of	9,756	Btu	per	kilowatthour.	

10See Table A5 for regional detail. 

Btu = British thermal unit. 

- - = Not applicable. 

Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. Data for 2010 and 2011 are model results and may differ slightly from official EIA 

data reports. 

Sources:	 	 2010	 and	 2011	 consumption	 based	 on:	 	 U.S.	 Energy	 Information	 Administration	 (EIA),	 Annual Energy Review 2011,	 DOE/EIA-0384(2011)	

(Washington,	DC,	September	2012).		2010	and	2011	degree	days	based	on	state-level	data	from	the	National	Oceanic	and	Atmospheric Administration’s Climatic 

Data Center and Climate Prediction Center. Projections:		EIA,	AEO2013		National	Energy	Modeling	System	run	REF2013.D102312A.
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013 131

Reference case

Table A5. Commercial sector key indicators and consumption

(quadrillion Btu per year, unless otherwise noted)

Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Outlook 2013 

Table A5. Commercial sector key indicators and consumption

(quadrillion	Btu	per	year,	unless otherwise noted)

Key indicators and consumption 

Reference case Annual 

growth 

2011-2040

2010 2011 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 (percent) 

Key indicators 

 Total floorspace (billion square feet) 

 Surviving ............................................................. 79.3 80.2 87.0 91.9 96.2 100.7 106.4 1.0% 

 New additions ..................................................... 1.8 1.5 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.3 2.4 1.6% 

 Total ................................................................. 81.1 81.7 89.1 93.9 98.1 103.0 108.8 1.0%

 

 Energy consumption intensity 

 (thousand Btu per square foot) 

 Delivered energy consumption ........................... 105.6 105.2 100.4 98.1 97.2 95.8 93.8 -0.4% 

 Electricity related losses ..................................... 117.3 115.7 105.7 104.6 103.7 102.0 100.4 -0.5% 

 Total energy consumption .................................. 222.9 220.9 206.2 202.7 200.9 197.8 194.2 -0.4% 

 

Delivered energy consumption by fuel 

 Purchased electricity

 Space heating1 ................................................... 0.18 0.17 0.16 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 -0.5% 

 Space cooling1 .................................................... 0.56 0.57 0.53 0.54 0.56 0.58 0.59 0.1% 

 Water heating1 .................................................... 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.08 0.08 -0.4% 

 Ventilation ........................................................... 0.49 0.49 0.54 0.56 0.58 0.59 0.60 0.6% 

					Cooking	..............................................................		 0.02	 0.02	 0.02	 0.02	 0.02	 0.02	 0.02	 -0.3%	

 Lighting ............................................................... 0.96 0.94 0.89 0.90 0.90 0.88 0.87 -0.3% 

 Refrigeration ....................................................... 0.39 0.38 0.35 0.35 0.36 0.37 0.38 0.0% 

 Office equipment (PC) ........................................ 0.21 0.20 0.19 0.20 0.20 0.21 0.22 0.2% 

 Office equipment (non-PC) ................................. 0.23 0.22 0.25 0.27 0.28 0.30 0.31 1.1% 

 Other uses2 ......................................................... 1.42 1.41 1.70 1.88 2.08 2.29 2.51 2.0% 

 Delivered energy ............................................. 4.54 4.50 4.72 4.97 5.22 5.47 5.72 0.8%

 

 Natural gas 

 Space heating1 ................................................... 1.65 1.64 1.66 1.62 1.58 1.53 1.45 -0.4% 

 Space cooling1 .................................................... 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 -0.3% 

 Water heating1 .................................................... 0.44 0.45 0.50 0.52 0.53 0.54 0.53 0.6% 

					Cooking	..............................................................		 0.18	 0.18	 0.20	 0.21	 0.22	 0.22	 0.23	 0.7%	

 Other uses3 ......................................................... 0.86 0.91 1.00 1.05 1.13 1.26 1.43 1.6% 

 Delivered energy ............................................. 3.17 3.23 3.40 3.43 3.50 3.59 3.68 0.4%

 

 Distillate fuel oil 

 Space heating1 ................................................... 0.14 0.13 0.11 0.10 0.09 0.09 0.08 -1.7% 

 Water heating1 .................................................... 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.04 1.0% 

 Other uses4 ......................................................... 0.24 0.26 0.20 0.20 0.19 0.19 0.19 -1.1% 

 Delivered energy ............................................. 0.41 0.42 0.34 0.33 0.32 0.31 0.30 -1.1%

 

			Marketed	renewables	(biomass)	...........................		 0.11	 0.13	 0.13	 0.13	 0.13	 0.13	 0.13	 0.0%	

 Other fuels5 ........................................................... 0.34 0.32 0.36 0.37 0.37 0.37 0.38 0.6% 

 

Delivered energy consumption by end use 

 Space heating1 ................................................... 1.97 1.94 1.93 1.88 1.83 1.76 1.68 -0.5% 

 Space cooling1 .................................................... 0.60 0.61 0.57 0.58 0.59 0.61 0.63 0.1% 

 Water heating1 .................................................... 0.56 0.57 0.62 0.64 0.65 0.66 0.65 0.5% 

 Ventilation ........................................................... 0.49 0.49 0.54 0.56 0.58 0.59 0.60 0.6% 

					Cooking	..............................................................		 0.20	 0.21	 0.22	 0.23	 0.24	 0.25	 0.25	 0.6%	

 Lighting ............................................................... 0.96 0.94 0.89 0.90 0.90 0.88 0.87 -0.3% 

 Refrigeration ....................................................... 0.39 0.38 0.35 0.35 0.36 0.37 0.38 0.0% 

 Office equipment (PC) ........................................ 0.21 0.20 0.19 0.20 0.20 0.21 0.22 0.2% 

 Office equipment (non-PC) ................................. 0.23 0.22 0.25 0.27 0.28 0.30 0.31 1.1% 

 Other uses6 ......................................................... 2.97 3.03 3.38 3.62 3.90 4.23 4.63 1.5% 

 Delivered energy ............................................. 8.57 8.60 8.95 9.22 9.54 9.86 10.21 0.6%
132 U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013

Reference case

Table A5. Commercial sector key indicators and consumption (continued)

(quadrillion Btu per year, unless otherwise noted)

Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Outlook 2013 

Table A5. Commercial sector key indicators and consumption (continued)

(quadrillion	Btu	per	year,	unless otherwise noted)

Key indicators and consumption 

Reference case Annual 

growth 

2011-2040

2010 2011 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 (percent) 

Electricity related losses ....................................... 9.52 9.45 9.42 9.82 10.18 10.51 10.92 0.5%

 

Total energy consumption by end use 

 Space heating1 ................................................... 2.34 2.29 2.24 2.18 2.12 2.05 1.95 -0.5% 

 Space cooling1 .................................................... 1.77 1.81 1.62 1.65 1.68 1.72 1.77 -0.1% 

 Water heating1 .................................................... 0.75 0.76 0.80 0.81 0.82 0.82 0.81 0.2% 

 Ventilation ........................................................... 1.52 1.53 1.62 1.66 1.70 1.72 1.73 0.4% 

					Cooking	..............................................................		 0.25	 0.25	 0.27	 0.27	 0.28	 0.29	 0.29	 0.4%	

 Lighting ............................................................... 2.97 2.91 2.68 2.68 2.66 2.58 2.52 -0.5% 

 Refrigeration ....................................................... 1.20 1.18 1.06 1.06 1.07 1.09 1.12 -0.2% 

 Office equipment (PC) ........................................ 0.65 0.63 0.57 0.58 0.60 0.61 0.63 -0.0% 

 Office equipment (non-PC) ................................. 0.70 0.70 0.74 0.79 0.84 0.87 0.89 0.9% 

 Other uses6 ......................................................... 5.95 5.99 6.77 7.35 7.94 8.63 9.42 1.6% 

 Total ................................................................. 18.09 18.05 18.37 19.04 19.72 20.37 21.13 0.5%

 

Nonmarketed renewable fuels7

 Solar thermal ........................................................ 0.08 0.08 0.09 0.10 0.10 0.11 0.12 1.4% 

 Solar photovoltaic ................................................. 0.02 0.03 0.10 0.12 0.13 0.16 0.19 6.6% 

 Wind ..................................................................... 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 7.7% 

 Total .................................................................. 0.10 0.11 0.20 0.22 0.24 0.28 0.32 3.7%

 

Heating Degree Days 

			New	England	........................................................		 5,944	 6,138	 6,131	 6,062	 5,992	 5,922	 5,850	 -0.2%	

			Middle	Atlantic	......................................................		 5,453	 5,413	 5,362	 5,281	 5,201	 5,121	 5,042	 -0.2%	

			East	North	Central	................................................		 6,209	 6,187	 6,073	 6,019	 5,965	 5,911	 5,856	 -0.2%	

			West	North	Central	...............................................		 6,585	 6,646	 6,297	 6,230	 6,161	 6,091	 6,020	 -0.3%	

 South Atlantic ........................................................		 3,183	 2,555	 2,660	 2,627	 2,596	 2,566	 2,538	 -0.0%	

 East South Central ................................................		 4,003	 3,397	 3,417	 3,400	 3,382	 3,364	 3,345	 -0.1%	

 West South Central ...............................................		 2,503	 2,203	 2,036	 1,996	 1,956	 1,916	 1,876	 -0.6%	

			Mountain	...............................................................		 4,882	 5,054	 4,545	 4,430	 4,312	 4,192	 4,071	 -0.7%	

			Pacific	...................................................................		 3,202	 3,411	 3,094	 3,076	 3,057	 3,039	 3,022	 -0.4%

 United States .................................................... 4,388 4,240 4,054 3,978 3,903 3,829 3,756 -0.4%

 

Cooling Degree Days 

 New England ........................................................ 655 607 588 611 635 659 683 0.4% 

 Middle Atlantic ...................................................... 997 887	 875	 909	 944	 978	 1,011	 0.5%	

 East North Central ................................................ 978 898 805 815 824 834 844 -0.2% 

			West	North	Central	...............................................		 1,123	 1,116	 995	 1,003	 1,012	 1,021	 1,030	 -0.3%	

 South Atlantic ........................................................		 2,289	 2,357	 2,228	 2,271	 2,313	 2,356	 2,397	 0.1%	

 East South Central ................................................		 1,999	 1,811	 1,779	 1,812	 1,845	 1,877	 1,910	 0.2%	

 West South Central ...............................................		 2,755	 3,194	 2,847	 2,911	 2,974	 3,037	 3,099	 -0.1%	

			Mountain	...............................................................		 1,490	 1,396	 1,698	 1,766	 1,837	 1,910	 1,985	 1.2%	

 Pacific ................................................................... 746 809 913 925 938 950 961 0.6% 

 United States .................................................... 1,498 1,528 1,499 1,545 1,591 1,638 1,685 0.3%

1

Includes fuel consumption for district services. 

2

Includes	(but	is	not	limited	to)	miscellaneous	uses	such	as	transformers,	medical	imaging	and	other	medical	equipment,	elevators,	escalators,	off-road	electric	

vehicles,	laboratory	fume	hoods,	laundry	equipment,	coffee	brewers,	and	water	services.	 3

Includes	miscellaneous	 uses,	 such	 as	 pumps,	 emergency	 generators,	 combined	 heat	 and	 power	 in	 commercial	 buildings,	 and	manufacturing performed in 

commercial buildings. 4

Includes	miscellaneous	uses,	such	as	cooking,	emergency	generators,	and	combined	heat	and	power	in	commercial	buildings.	

5

Includes	residual	fuel	oil,	liquefied	petroleum	gases,	coal,	motor	gasoline,	and	kerosene.	

6

Includes	(but	is	not	limited	to)	miscellaneous	uses	such	as	transformers,	medical	imaging	and	other	medical	equipment,	elevators,	escalators,	off-road	electric	

vehicles,	 laboratory	fume	 hoods,	 laundry	 equipment,	 coffee	 brewers,	 water	 services,	 pumps,	 emergency	 generators,	 combined	 heat	and power in commercial 

buildings,	 manufacturing	 performed	 in	 commercial	 buildings,	 and	 cooking	 (distillate),	 plus	 residual	 fuel	 oil,	 liquefied	 petroleum	 gases,	 coal,	 motor	 gasoline,	

kerosene,	and	marketed	renewable	fuels	(biomass).	 7

Consumption	determined	by	using	the	fossil	fuel	equivalent	of	9,756	Btu	per	kilowatthour.	

Btu = British thermal unit. 

PC = Personal computer. 

Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. Data for 2010 and 2011 are model results and may differ slightly from official EIA 

data reports. 

Sources:	 	 2010	 and	 2011	 consumption	 based	 on:	 	 U.S.	 Energy	 Information	 Administration	 (EIA),	 Annual Energy Review 2011,	 DOE/EIA-0384(2011)	

(Washington,	DC,	September	2012).		2010	and	2011	degree	days	based	on	state-level	data	from	the	National	Oceanic	and	Atmospheric Administration’s Climatic 

Data Center and Climate Prediction Center. Projections:		EIA,	AEO2013	National	Energy	Modeling	System	run	REF2013.D102312A.
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013 133

Reference case

Table A6. Industrial sector key indicators and consumption

Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Outlook 2013 

Table A6. Industrial sector key indicators and consumption

Key indicators and consumption 

Reference case Annual 

growth 

2011-2040

2010 2011 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 (percent) 

Key indicators 

Value of shipments (billion 2005 dollars) 

					Manufacturing	.....................................................		 4,257	 4,438	 5,683	 6,253	 6,712	 7,285	 7,972	 2.0%	

					Nonmanufacturing	..............................................		 1,585	 1,582	 2,211	 2,295	 2,375	 2,494	 2,644	 1.8%	

 Total ................................................................. 5,842 6,019 7,894 8,548 9,087 9,779 10,616 2.0%

 

 Energy prices 

 (2011 dollars per million Btu) 

 Liquefied petroleum gases .................................. 23.73 22.54 20.51 22.33 23.64 24.97 26.78 0.6% 

 Motor gasoline .................................................... 17.16 17.14 27.71 29.11 30.56 32.80 35.98 2.6% 

 Distillate fuel oil ................................................... 21.87 26.50 24.67 27.02 28.91 31.31 34.16 0.9% 

 Residual fuel oil .................................................. 11.30 18.86 17.19 18.96 21.09 23.25 25.78 1.1% 

 Asphalt and road oil ............................................ 5.74 9.66 11.94 13.28 14.64 16.19 18.05 2.2% 

 Natural gas heat and power ................................ 5.18 4.54 5.19 5.84 6.28 7.18 8.64 2.2% 

					Natural	gas	feedstocks	.......................................		 5.81	 5.28	 5.87	 6.47	 6.86	 7.73	 9.15	 1.9%	

 Metallurgical coal ................................................ 5.96 7.01 8.75 9.36 10.09 10.69 11.11 1.6% 

 Other industrial coal ............................................ 2.77 3.43 3.44 3.56 3.71 3.88 4.06 0.6% 

 Coal to liquids ..................................................... - - - - - - 2.30 2.55 2.76 2.95 - - 

 Electricity ............................................................ 20.26 19.98 18.72 19.18 19.73 20.80 22.74 0.4% 

 (nominal dollars per million Btu) 

 Liquefied petroleum gases .................................. 23.23 22.54 23.65 28.14 32.62 37.74 44.20 2.3% 

 Motor gasoline .................................................... 16.80 17.14 31.95 36.69 42.17 49.57 59.39 4.4% 

 Distillate fuel oil ................................................... 21.42 26.50 28.45 34.05 39.89 47.31 56.39 2.6% 

 Residual fuel oil .................................................. 11.06 18.86 19.82 23.89 29.10 35.13 42.55 2.8% 

 Asphalt and road oil ............................................ 5.62 9.66 13.77 16.73 20.20 24.46 29.78 4.0% 

 Natural gas heat and power ................................ 5.07 4.54 5.99 7.36 8.66 10.85 14.25 4.0% 

					Natural	gas	feedstocks	.......................................		 5.69 5.28 6.77 8.15 9.46 11.68 15.10 3.7% 

 Metallurgical coal ................................................ 5.84 7.01 10.09 11.79 13.92 16.15 18.34 3.4% 

 Other industrial coal ............................................ 2.71 3.43 3.97 4.48 5.12 5.86 6.70 2.3% 

 Coal to liquids ..................................................... - - - - - - 2.90 3.52 4.17 4.87 - - 

 Electricity ............................................................ 19.84 19.98 21.59 24.17 27.22 31.42 37.54 2.2% 

 

Energy consumption (quadrillion Btu)1

 Industrial consumption excluding refining 

 Liquefied petroleum gases heat and power ........ 0.09 0.07 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.07 -0.2% 

					Liquefied	petroleum	gases	feedstocks	................		 2.02	 2.02	 2.40	 2.48	 2.41	 2.34	 2.24	 0.4%	

 Propylene............................................................ 0.41 0.40 0.56 0.56 0.52 0.49 0.46 0.6% 

 Motor gasoline .................................................... 0.28 0.27 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.6% 

 Distillate fuel oil ................................................... 1.19 1.20 1.22 1.19 1.18 1.19 1.22 0.0% 

 Residual fuel oil .................................................. 0.12 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.0% 

					Petrochemical	feedstocks	...................................		 0.94	 0.88	 1.03	 1.08	 1.08	 1.08	 1.09	 0.7%	

					Petroleum	coke	...................................................		 0.16	 0.15	 0.33	 0.35	 0.34	 0.34	 0.34	 3.0%	

 Asphalt and road oil ............................................ 0.88 0.86 1.11 1.13 1.16 1.21 1.30 1.4% 

 Miscellaneous petroleum2 ................................... 0.71 0.67 0.43 0.41 0.37 0.36 0.37 -2.0% 

 Petroleum subtotal ........................................... 6.80 6.62 7.57 7.69 7.55 7.50 7.52 0.4% 

 Natural gas heat and power ................................ 4.81 5.03 5.74 5.84 5.84 5.93 6.04 0.6% 

					Natural	gas	feedstocks	.......................................		 0.48	 0.46	 0.55	 0.55	 0.51	 0.48	 0.45	 -0.1%	

 Lease and plant fuel3 .......................................... 1.31 1.42 1.57 1.68 1.73 1.84 1.97 1.1% 

 Natural gas subtotal ......................................... 6.60 6.91 7.86 8.07 8.09 8.25 8.45 0.7% 

					Metallurgical	coal	and	coke4 ............................... 0.55 0.57 0.59 0.55 0.48 0.42 0.41 -1.1% 

 Other industrial coal ............................................ 1.00 1.04 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.02 1.05 0.0% 

 Coal subtotal .................................................... 1.54 1.62 1.58 1.56 1.48 1.44 1.46 -0.3% 

 Renewables5....................................................... 1.47 1.51 1.72 1.85 1.97 2.11 2.28 1.4% 

 Purchased electricity ........................................... 3.10 3.12 3.74 3.84 3.75 3.68 3.68 0.6% 

 Delivered energy ............................................ 19.52 19.78 22.47 23.00 22.83 22.97 23.39 0.6%

 Electricity related losses ..................................... 6.51 6.55 7.46 7.59 7.30 7.07 7.02 0.2% 

 Total ................................................................ 26.03 26.33 29.93 30.59 30.14 30.05 30.41 0.5%
134 U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013

Reference case

Table A6. Industrial sector key indicators and consumption (continued)

Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Outlook 2013 

Table A6. Industrial sector key indicators and consumption (continued)

Key indicators and consumption 

Reference case Annual 

growth 

2011-2040

2010 2011 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 (percent) 

 Refining consumption 

 Liquefied petroleum gases heat and power ........ 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 - - 

 Distillate fuel oil ................................................... 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 - - 

 Residual fuel oil .................................................. 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 - - 

					Petroleum	coke	...................................................		 0.52	 0.53	 0.42	 0.40	 0.40	 0.40	 0.41	 -0.9%	

 Still gas ............................................................... 1.41 1.40 1.25 1.19 1.19 1.21 1.23 -0.4% 

 Miscellaneous petroleum2 ................................... 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -22.9% 

 Petroleum subtotal ........................................... 1.96 1.95 1.67 1.59 1.59 1.61 1.64 -0.6% 

 Natural gas heat and power ................................ 1.38 1.43 1.57 1.60 1.62 1.61 1.60 0.4% 

 Natural-gas-to-liquids heat and power ................ 0.00 0.00 0.13 0.16 0.21 0.27 0.33 - - 

 Natural gas subtotal ......................................... 1.38 1.43 1.70 1.77 1.83 1.88 1.93 1.0% 

 Other industrial coal ............................................ 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 - - 

 Coal-to-liquids heat and power ........................... 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.07 0.09 0.12 0.15 - - 

 Coal subtotal .................................................... 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.07 0.09 0.12 0.15 - - 

 Biofuels heat and coproducts.............................. 0.85 0.67 0.82 0.82 0.85 0.97 1.37 2.5% 

 Purchased electricity ........................................... 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.22 0.23 0.3% 

 Delivered energy ............................................ 4.46 4.26 4.40 4.46 4.57 4.80 5.31 0.8%

 Electricity related losses ..................................... 0.44 0.44 0.42 0.41 0.41 0.41 0.43 -0.0% 

 Total ................................................................ 4.90 4.70 4.82 4.87 4.98 5.21 5.75 0.7%

 

 Total industrial sector consumption 

 Liquefied petroleum gases heat and power ........ 0.10 0.08 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.07 -0.5% 

					Liquefied	petroleum	gases	feedstocks	................		 2.02	 2.02	 2.40	 2.48	 2.41	 2.34	 2.24	 0.4%	

 Propylene............................................................ 0.41 0.40 0.56 0.56 0.52 0.49 0.46 0.6% 

 Motor gasoline .................................................... 0.28 0.27 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.6% 

 Distillate fuel oil ................................................... 1.19 1.21 1.22 1.19 1.18 1.19 1.22 0.0% 

 Residual fuel oil .................................................. 0.12 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 -0.1% 

					Petrochemical	feedstocks	...................................		 0.94	 0.88	 1.03	 1.08	 1.08	 1.08	 1.09	 0.7%	

					Petroleum	coke	...................................................		 0.68	 0.67	 0.75	 0.75	 0.73	 0.74	 0.75	 0.4%	

 Asphalt and road oil ............................................ 0.88 0.86 1.11 1.13 1.16 1.21 1.30 1.4% 

 Still gas ............................................................... 1.41 1.40 1.25 1.19 1.19 1.21 1.23 -0.4% 

 Miscellaneous petroleum2 ................................... 0.73 0.68 0.43 0.41 0.37 0.36 0.37 -2.1% 

 Petroleum subtotal ........................................... 8.76 8.57 9.25 9.28 9.14 9.11 9.16 0.2% 

 Natural gas heat and power ................................ 6.19 6.46 7.31 7.44 7.46 7.54 7.63 0.6% 

 Natural-gas-to-liquids heat and power ................ 0.00 0.00 0.13 0.16 0.21 0.27 0.33 - - 

					Natural	gas	feedstocks	.......................................		 0.48	 0.46	 0.55	 0.55	 0.51	 0.48	 0.45	 -0.1%	

 Lease and plant fuel3 .......................................... 1.31 1.42 1.57 1.68 1.73 1.84 1.97 1.1% 

 Natural gas subtotal ......................................... 7.98 8.34 9.56 9.84 9.91 10.13 10.38 0.8% 

					Metallurgical	coal	and	coke4 ............................... 0.55 0.57 0.59 0.55 0.48 0.42 0.41 -1.1% 

 Other industrial coal ............................................ 1.06 1.04 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.02 1.05 0.0% 

 Coal-to-liquids heat and power ........................... 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.07 0.09 0.12 0.15 - - 

 Coal subtotal .................................................... 1.60 1.62 1.58 1.63 1.57 1.56 1.61 -0.0% 

 Biofuels heat and coproducts.............................. 0.85 0.67 0.82 0.82 0.85 0.97 1.37 2.5% 

 Renewables5....................................................... 1.47 1.51 1.72 1.85 1.97 2.11 2.28 1.4% 

 Purchased electricity ........................................... 3.31 3.33 3.95 4.05 3.96 3.90 3.91 0.6% 

 Delivered energy ............................................ 23.98 24.04 26.87 27.46 27.40 27.77 28.71 0.6%

 Electricity related losses ..................................... 6.95 6.99 7.89 8.00 7.72 7.49 7.45 0.2% 

 Total ................................................................ 30.93 31.03 34.76 35.46 35.11 35.26 36.16 0.5%
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013 135

Reference case

Table A6. Industrial sector key indicators and consumption (continued)

Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Outlook 2013 

Table A6. Industrial sector key indicators and consumption (continued)

Key indicators and consumption 

Reference case Annual 

growth 

2011-2040

2010 2011 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 (percent) 

Energy consumption per dollar of 

shipments (thousand Btu per 2005 dollar) 

 Liquid fuels and other petroleum ......................... 1.50 1.42 1.17 1.09 1.01 0.93 0.86 -1.7% 

 Natural gas ......................................................... 1.37 1.39 1.23 1.17 1.11 1.06 1.01 -1.1% 

 Coal .................................................................... 0.27 0.27 0.20 0.19 0.17 0.16 0.15 -1.9% 

 Renewable fuels5 ................................................ 0.40 0.36 0.32 0.31 0.31 0.32 0.34 -0.2% 

 Purchased electricity ........................................... 0.57 0.55 0.50 0.47 0.44 0.40 0.37 -1.4% 

 Delivered energy ............................................ 4.11 3.99 3.42 3.23 3.04 2.87 2.74 -1.3%

 

Industrial combined heat and power1

 Capacity (gigawatts) ............................................. 25.07 25.63 29.47 32.44 36.48 41.55 45.07 2.0% 

			Generation	(billion	kilowatthours)	.......................... 123.76 122.05 164.19 182.40 206.62 237.92 260.03 2.6% 

1

Includes	energy	for	combined	heat	and	power	plants	that	have	a	regulatory	status,	and	small	on-site	generating	systems.	

2

Includes lubricants and miscellaneous petroleum products. 

3

Represents	natural	gas	used	in	well,	field,	and	lease	operations,	in	natural	gas	processing	plant	machinery,	and	for	liquefaction in export facilities. 4

Includes	net	coal	coke	imports.	

5

Includes	consumption	of	energy	produced	from	hydroelectric,	wood	and	wood	waste,	municipal	waste,	and	other	biomass	sources.	

Btu = British thermal unit. 

- - = Not applicable. 

Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. Data for 2010 and 2011 are model results and may differ slightly from official 

EIA data reports. 

Sources:		2010	and	2011	prices	for	motor	gasoline	and	distillate	fuel	oil	are	based	on:		U.S.	Energy	Information	Administration	 (EIA),	Petroleum Marketing 

Monthly,	DOE/EIA-0380(2012/08)	(Washington,	DC,	August	2012).		2010	and	2011	petrochemical	feedstock	and	asphalt	and	road	oil	prices	are	based	on:		EIA,	

State Energy Data Report 2010,	 DOE/EIA-0214(2010)	 (Washington,	 DC,	 June	 2012).		 2010	 and	 2011	 coal	 prices	 are	 based	 on:		EIA,	Quarterly Coal Report, 

October-December 2011,	 DOE/EIA-0121(2011/4Q)	 (Washington,	 DC,	 March	 2012)	 and	 EIA,	 AEO2013	 National	 Energy	 Modeling	 System	 run	

REF2013.D102312A.	 	 2010	 and	 2011	 electricity	 prices:	 	 EIA,	Annual Energy Review 2011,	 DOE/EIA-0384(2011)	 (Washington,	 DC,	 September	 2012).	 	 2010	

natural	 gas	 prices:		 EIA,	Natural Gas Annual 2010,	 DOE/EIA-0131(2010)	 (Washington,	 DC,	 December	 2011).		 2011	 natural	 gas	 prices:	Natural Gas Monthly,

DOE/EIA-0130Natural	Gas	Monthly,	DOE/EIA-0130(2012/07)	(Washington,	DC,	July	2012).		2010	refining	consumption	values	are	based on: Petroleum Supply 

Annual 2010,	 DOE/EIA-0340(2010)/1	 (Washington,	 DC,	 July	 2011).	 	 2011	 refining	 consumption	 based	 on:	 	 Petroleum Supply Annual 2011,	 DOE/EIA0340(2011)/1	(Washington,	DC,	August	2012).		Other	2010	and	2011	consumption	values	are	based	on:		EIA,	Annual Energy Review 2011,	DOE/EIA-0384(2011)	

(Washington,	DC,	September	2012).		2010	and	2011	shipments:	IHS	Global	Insight,	Global	Insight	Industry	model,	August	2012.		Projections:		EIA,	AEO2013	

National	Energy	Modeling	System	run	REF2013.D102312A.
136 U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013

Reference case

Table A7. Transportation sector key indicators and delivered energy consumption

Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Outlook 2013 

Table A7. Transportation sector key indicators and delivered energy consumption

Key indicators and consumption 

Reference case Annual 

growth 

2011-2040

2010 2011 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 (percent) 

Key indicators 

 Travel indicators 

 (billion vehicle miles traveled) 

									Light-duty	vehicles	less	than	8,501	pounds	....		 2,654	 2,629	 2,870	 3,089	 3,323	 3,532	 3,719	 1.2%	

									Commercial	light	trucks1 ................................. 65 65 80 87 94 102 110 1.8% 

									Freight	trucks	greater	than	10,000	pounds	.....		 235	 240	 323	 350	 371	 401	 438	 2.1%	

 (billion seat miles available) 

									Air	...................................................................		 999	 982	 1,082	 1,131	 1,177	 1,222	 1,274	 0.9%	

 (billion ton miles traveled) 

									Rail	.................................................................		 1,581	 1,557	 1,719	 1,833	 1,910	 1,969	 2,017	 0.9%

 Domestic shipping .......................................... 508 514 612 600 578 584 591 0.5% 

 

 Energy efficiency indicators 

 (miles per gallon) 

									New	light-duty	vehicle	CAFE	standard2 .......... 25.5 27.6 37.0 46.8 47.2 47.5 47.8 1.9% 

 New car2 ...................................................... 27.7 30.9 43.9 54.6 54.6 54.7 54.7 2.0% 

												New	light	truck2 ............................................ 23.4 24.6 30.9 39.5 39.5 39.5 39.5 1.6% 

 Compliance new light-duty vehicle3 ................ 31.8 32.6 37.9 47.3 48.2 48.6 49.0 1.4% 

 New car3 ...................................................... 36.1 37.4 44.4 55.0 55.6 55.9 56.1 1.4% 

												New	light	truck3 ............................................ 28.1 28.5 32.0 40.0 40.3 40.4 40.5 1.2% 

 Tested new light-duty vehicle4 ........................ 30.8 31.5 37.9 47.3 48.1 48.6 49.0 1.5% 

 New car4 ...................................................... 35.7 36.4 44.4 55.0 55.6 55.8 56.1 1.5% 

												New	light	truck4 ............................................ 26.9 27.3 32.0 40.0 40.3 40.4 40.4 1.4% 

 On-road new light-duty vehicle5 ...................... 24.9 25.5 30.6 38.2 38.9 39.3 39.7 1.5% 

 New car5 ...................................................... 29.1 29.8 36.3 44.9 45.4 45.6 45.8 1.5% 

												New	light	truck5 ............................................ 21.5 21.8 25.6 32.0 32.3 32.3 32.3 1.4% 

									Light-duty	stock6 ............................................. 20.9 20.6 24.1 27.6 31.3 34.2 36.1 2.0% 

									New	commercial	light	truck1 ............................ 18.2 18.1 20.0 23.9 24.1 24.2 24.2 1.0% 

									Stock	commercial	light	truck1 .......................... 14.6 14.9 17.9 20.1 22.2 23.5 24.1 1.7% 

									Freight	truck	....................................................		 6.7	 6.7	 7.3	 7.7	 8.0	 8.1	 8.2	 0.7%	

 (seat miles per gallon) 

 Aircraft ............................................................ 62.3 62.3 63.9 65.2 67.0 69.2 71.5 0.5% 

 (ton miles per thousand Btu) 

 Rail ................................................................. 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 0.1% 

 Domestic shipping .......................................... 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.6 0.2% 

 

Energy use by mode 

 (quadrillion Btu) 

 Light-duty vehicles ................................................ 15.94 15.56 14.35 13.48 12.77 12.44 12.43 -0.8% 

			Commercial	light	trucks1 ....................................... 0.55 0.54 0.56 0.54 0.53 0.54 0.57 0.2% 

 Bus transportation ................................................. 0.25 0.25 0.27 0.28 0.29 0.31 0.32 0.9% 

			Freight	trucks	........................................................		 4.86	 4.95	 6.07	 6.24	 6.39	 6.76	 7.31	 1.4%	

			Rail,	passenger	.....................................................		 0.05	 0.05	 0.05	 0.06	 0.06	 0.06	 0.06	 1.1%	

			Rail,	freight............................................................		 0.46	 0.45	 0.49	 0.53	 0.54	 0.56	 0.57	 0.8%	

			Shipping,	domestic	...............................................		 0.21	 0.21	 0.25	 0.24	 0.23	 0.23	 0.23	 0.3%	

			Shipping,	international	..........................................		 0.85	 0.80	 0.81	 0.82	 0.82	 0.83	 0.84	 0.2%	

 Recreational boats ................................................ 0.25 0.24 0.26 0.27 0.28 0.28 0.29 0.6% 

 Air ......................................................................... 2.52 2.46 2.65 2.73 2.78 2.82 2.86 0.5% 

 Military use............................................................ 0.76 0.74 0.63 0.65 0.68 0.72 0.77 0.1% 

 Lubricants ............................................................. 0.14 0.13 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.13 0.13 -0.1% 

 Pipeline fuel .......................................................... 0.68 0.70 0.71 0.73 0.74 0.76 0.78 0.4% 

 Total .................................................................. 27.52 27.09 27.24 26.68 26.24 26.43 27.14 0.0%
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013 137

Reference case

Table A7. Transportation sector key indicators and delivered energy consumption (continued)

Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Outlook 2013 

Table A7. Transportation sector key indicators and delivered energy consumption (continued)

Key indicators and consumption 

Reference case Annual 

growth 

2011-2040

2010 2011 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 (percent) 

Energy use by mode 

 (million barrels per day oil equivalent) 

 Light-duty vehicles ................................................ 8.37 8.46 7.85 7.38 6.99 6.80 6.80 -0.7% 

			Commercial	light	trucks1 ....................................... 0.28 0.28 0.29 0.28 0.27 0.28 0.29 0.2% 

 Bus transportation ................................................. 0.12 0.12 0.13 0.14 0.14 0.15 0.15 0.9% 

			Freight	trucks	........................................................		 2.34	 2.39	 2.92	 3.01	 3.08	 3.25	 3.52	 1.3%	

			Rail,	passenger	.....................................................		 0.02	 0.02	 0.02	 0.03	 0.03	 0.03	 0.03	 1.1%	

			Rail,	freight............................................................		 0.22	 0.22	 0.24	 0.25	 0.26	 0.27	 0.27	 0.8%	

			Shipping,	domestic	...............................................		 0.10	 0.10	 0.12	 0.11	 0.11	 0.11	 0.11	 0.3%	

			Shipping,	international	..........................................		 0.37	 0.35	 0.35	 0.36	 0.36	 0.36	 0.37	 0.2%	

 Recreational boats ................................................ 0.13 0.13 0.14 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.16 0.6% 

 Air ......................................................................... 1.22 1.19 1.28 1.32 1.35 1.36 1.38 0.5% 

 Military use............................................................ 0.37 0.36 0.30 0.31 0.33 0.35 0.37 0.1% 

 Lubricants ............................................................. 0.07 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 -0.1% 

 Pipeline fuel .......................................................... 0.32 0.33 0.34 0.34 0.35 0.36 0.37 0.4% 

 Total .................................................................. 13.93 14.00 14.05 13.73 13.47 13.53 13.87 -0.0%

1

Commercial	trucks	8,501	to	10,000	pounds	gross	vehicle	weight	rating.	

2

CAFE	standard	based	on	projected	new	vehicle	sales.	

3

Includes	CAFE	credits	for	alternative	fueled	vehicle	sales	and	credit	banking.	

4

Environmental Protection Agency rated miles per gallon. 

5

Tested new vehicle efficiency revised for on-road performance. 

6

Combined”on-the-road”	estimate	for	all	cars	and	light	trucks.	

CAFE	=	Corporate	average	fuel	economy.	

Btu = British thermal unit. 

Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. Data for 2010 and 2011 are model results and may differ slightly from official EIA 

data reports. 

Sources:		2010	 and	2011:		U.S.	Energy	Information	Administration	 (EIA),	Annual Energy Review 2011,	DOE/EIA-0384(2011)	 (Washington,	DC,	September	

2012);	Federal	Highway	Administration,	Highway Statistics 2010	(Washington,	DC,	February	2012);	Oak	Ridge	National	Laboratory,	Transportation Energy Data 

Book: Edition 31	 (Oak	Ridge,	TN,	 July	2012);	National	Highway	Traffic	and	Safety	Administration,	Summary of Fuel Economy Performance	 (Washington,	DC,	

October	28,	2010);	U.S.	Department	of	Commerce,	Bureau	of	the	Census,	“Vehicle	Inventory	and	Use	Survey,”	EC02TV	(Washington,	DC,	December	2004);	EIA,	

Alternatives	 to	 Traditional	 Transportation	 Fuels	 2009	 (Part	 II	 -	 User	 and	 Fuel	 Data),	 April	 2011;	 EIA,	 State Energy Data Report 2010,	 DOE/EIA-0214(2010)	

(Washington,	 DC,	 June	 2012);	 U.S.	 Department	 of	 Transportation,	 Research	 and	 Special	 Programs	 Administration,	 Air Carrier Statistics Monthly, December 

2010/2009	(Washington,	DC,	December	2010);	and	United	States	Department	of	Defense,	Defense	Fuel	Supply	Center,	Factbook	(January,	2010). Projections:

EIA,	AEO2013	National	Energy	Modeling	System	run	REF2013.D102312A.
138 U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013

Reference case

Table A8. Electricity supply, disposition, prices, and emissions

(billion kilowatthours, unless otherwise noted)

Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Outlook 2013 

Table A8. Electricity supply, disposition, prices, and emissions

(billion	kilowatthours,	unless	otherwise	noted)

Supply, disposition, prices, and emissions 

Reference case Annual 

growth 

2011-2040

2010 2011 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 (percent) 

Generation by fuel type 

 Electric power sector1

 Power only2

								Coal	..................................................................	 1,797	 1,688	 1,613	 1,680	 1,718	 1,756	 1,776	 0.2%	

 Petroleum ......................................................... 32 24 15 15 15 15 16 -1.5% 

 Natural gas3 ...................................................... 779	 809	 948	 996	 1,093	 1,193	 1,224	 1.4%	

 Nuclear power ................................................... 807 790 885 912 908 875 903 0.5% 

 Pumped storage/other4 ..................................... 2 1 2 2 3 3 3 2.2% 

 Renewable sources5 ......................................... 392 484 555 582 598 644 750 1.5% 

 Distributed generation (natural gas) .................. 0 0 3 6 10 12 13 - - 

 Total .............................................................. 3,809 3,797 4,021 4,194 4,345 4,497 4,684 0.7%

 Combined heat and power6 

 Coal .................................................................. 31 27 27 27 27 28 28 0.2% 

 Petroleum ......................................................... 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 -4.1% 

 Natural gas ....................................................... 123 121 130 131 128 127 125 0.1% 

 Renewable sources .......................................... 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 -0.2% 

 Total .............................................................. 163 157 161 162 161 160 158 0.0%

 Total electric power sector generation ............ 3,972 3,954 4,182 4,356 4,506 4,658 4,842 0.7%

 Less direct use ..................................................... 17 12 13 13 13 13 13 0.0% 

 

 Net available to the grid ...................................... 3,956 3,942 4,169 4,343 4,493 4,645 4,830 0.7%

 

 End-use sector7

 Coal .................................................................... 20 15 16 20 21 23 25 1.7% 

 Petroleum ........................................................... 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0.2% 

 Natural gas ......................................................... 69 70 104 120 148 187 221 4.0% 

 Other gaseous fuels8 .......................................... 10 11 14 14 14 14 14 0.9% 

 Renewable sources9 ........................................... 32 36 68 75 82 92 104 3.7% 

 Other10 ................................................................ 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 -0.3% 

 Total end-use sector generation .................. 138 139 208 235 271 322 370 3.4%

 Less direct use .................................................... 99 102 169 192 225 269 310 3.9% 

 Total sales to the grid .................................... 39 37 39 43 47 53 60 1.7%

 

 Total electricity generation by fuel 

 Coal .................................................................... 1847 1730 1656 1727 1766 1807 1829 0.2% 

 Petroleum ........................................................... 37 28 17 18 18 18 18 -1.5% 

 Natural gas ......................................................... 970 1000 1184 1252 1379 1519 1582 1.6% 

 Nuclear power ..................................................... 807 790 885 912 908 875 903 0.5% 

 Renewable sources5,9 ......................................... 429 524 627 661 685 740 858 1.7% 

 Other11 ................................................................ 19 20 20 20 20 21 21 0.1% 

 Total electricity generation ........................... 4110 4093 4389 4591 4777 4979 5212 0.8%

 Net generation to the grid ................................... 3994 3979 4208 4386 4540 4698 4890 0.7%

 

Net imports .............................................................. 26 37 24 22 14 10 18 -2.4%

 

Electricity sales by sector 

 Residential ............................................................. 1446 1424 1419 1488 1572 1661 1767 0.7% 

 Commercial............................................................ 1330 1319 1384 1455 1531 1602 1677 0.8% 

 Industrial ................................................................ 971 976 1158 1186 1161 1142 1145 0.6% 

 Transportation ........................................................ 6 6 9 11 13 16 19 3.9% 

 Total .................................................................... 3753 3725 3969 4140 4276 4421 4608 0.7%

 Direct use .............................................................. 116 114 181 204 237 281 322 3.6% 

 Total electricity use ........................................... 3,870 3,841 4,151 4,344 4,513 4,702 4,930 0.9%
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013 139

Reference case

Table A8. Electricity supply, disposition, prices, and emissions (continued)

(billion kilowatthours, unless otherwise noted)

Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Outlook 2013 

Table A8. Electricity supply, disposition, prices, and emissions (continued)

(billion	kilowatthours,	unless	otherwise	noted)

Supply, disposition, prices, and emissions 

Reference case Annual 

growth 

2011-2040

2010 2011 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 (percent) 

End-use prices 

	(2011	cents	per	kilowatthour)	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	

 Residential ............................................................. 11.8 11.7 11.5 11.6 11.8 12.1 12.7 0.3% 

 Commercial............................................................ 10.4 10.2 9.7 9.7 9.8 10.1 10.8 0.2% 

 Industrial ................................................................ 6.9 6.8 6.4 6.5 6.7 7.1 7.8 0.4% 

 Transportation ........................................................ 11.6 11.2 10.1 10.4 10.8 11.2 12.0 0.2% 

 All sectors average ............................................ 10.0 9.9 9.4 9.5 9.7 10.1 10.8 0.3%

	(nominal	cents	per	kilowatthour)	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	

 Residential ............................................................. 11.5 11.7 13.2 14.6 16.3 18.3 20.9 2.0% 

 Commercial............................................................ 10.2 10.2 11.2 12.2 13.5 15.3 17.9 1.9% 

 Industrial ................................................................ 6.8 6.8 7.4 8.2 9.3 10.7 12.8 2.2% 

 Transportation ........................................................ 11.3 11.2 11.6 13.1 14.8 16.9 19.7 2.0% 

 All sectors average ............................................ 9.8 9.9 10.8 12.0 13.4 15.2 17.8 2.0%

 

Prices by service category

	(2011	cents	per	kilowatthour)	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	

 Generation ............................................................. 6.0 5.8 5.6 5.8 6.0 6.4 7.1 0.7% 

 Transmission ......................................................... 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 0.3% 

 Distribution ............................................................. 3.0 3.1 2.8 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 -0.5% 

	(nominal	cents	per	kilowatthour)	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	

 Generation ............................................................. 5.9 5.8 6.4 7.3 8.3 9.6 11.6 2.5% 

 Transmission ......................................................... 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.9 2.0% 

 Distribution ............................................................. 2.9 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.6 4.0 4.3 1.2% 

 

Electric power sector emissions1

 Sulfur dioxide (million short tons) ........................... 5.00 4.42 1.35 1.43 1.50 1.60 1.66 -3.3% 

 Nitrogen oxide (million short tons) ......................... 2.07 1.94 1.72 1.80 1.82 1.85 1.87 -0.1% 

 Mercury (short tons) ............................................... 33.14 31.49 6.84 7.19 7.33 7.55 7.75 -4.7% 

1

Includes electricity-only and combined heat and power plants that have a regulatory status. 

2

Includes plants that only produce electricity and have a regulatory status. 

3

Includes electricity generation from fuel cells. 

4

Includes non-biogenic municipal waste. The U.S. Energy Information Administration estimates that in 2011 approximately 6 billion	kilowatthours	of	electricity	

were generated from a municipal waste stream containing petroleum-derived plastics and other non-renewable sources. See U.S. Energy Information 

Administration,	Methodology for Allocating Municipal Solid Waste to Biogenic and Non-Biogenic Energy,	(Washington,	DC,	May	2007).	 5

Includes	conventional	hydroelectric,	geothermal,	wood,	wood	waste,	biogenic	municipal	waste,	landfill	gas,	other	biomass,	solar,	and	wind	power.	 6

Includes	combined	heat	and	power	plants	whose	primary	business	is	to	sell	electricity	and	heat	to	the	public	 (i.e.,	those	that	report North American Industry 

Classification System code 22 or have a regulatory status). 7

Includes combined heat and power plants and electricity-only plants in the commercial and industrial sectors that have a non-regulatory status; and small onsite	generating	systems	in	the	 residential,	commercial,	and	industrial	sectors	used	primarily	for	own-use	generation,	but	which may also sell some power to the 

grid. 8

Includes refinery gas and still gas. 

9

Includes	conventional	hydroelectric,	geothermal,	wood,	wood	waste,	all	municipal	waste,	landfill	gas,	other	biomass,	solar,	and wind power. 10Includes	batteries,	chemicals,	hydrogen,	pitch,	purchased	steam,	sulfur,	and	miscellaneous	technologies.	 11Includes	 pumped	 storage,	 non-biogenic	 municipal	 waste,	 refinery	 gas,	 still	 gas,	 batteries,	 chemicals,	 hydrogen,	 pitch,	 purchased	 steam,	 sulfur,	 and	

miscellaneous technologies. 

- - = Not applicable. 

Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. Data for 2010 and 2011 are model results and may differ slightly from official EIA 

data reports. 

Sources: 2010 and 2011 electric power sector generation; sales to the grid; net imports; electricity sales; and electricity end-use prices: U.S. Energy 

Information	Administration	 (EIA),	Annual Energy Review 2011,	DOE/EIA-0384(2011)	 (Washington,	DC,	September	2012),	and	supporting	databases.		2010	and	

2011	 emissions:		 U.S.	 Environmental	 Protection	 Agency,	 Clean	 Air	 Markets	 Database.		 2010	 and	 2011	 electricity	 prices	 by	 service	 category:		 EIA,	 AEO2013	

National	Energy	Modeling	System	run	REF2013.D102312A.		Projections:		EIA,	AEO2013	National	Energy	Modeling	System	run	REF2013.D102312A.
140 U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013

Reference case

Table A9. Electricity generating capacity

(gigawatts)

Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Outlook 2013 

Table A9. Electricity generating capacity

(gigawatts)

Net summer capacity1

Reference case Annual 

growth 

2011-2040

2010 2011 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 (percent) 

Electric power sector2 

 Power only3

 Coal ..................................................................... 308.0 309.5 268.7 267.9 267.9 267.9 269.0 -0.5%

 Oil and natural gas steam4 .................................. 105.6 101.9 86.4 78.3 69.1 66.6 64.0 -1.6% 

 Combined cycle ................................................... 171.8 179.5 193.2 207.6 238.3 265.8 288.4 1.6% 

 Combustion turbine/diesel ................................... 134.5 136.1 149.9 162.1 177.2 190.2 208.9 1.5% 

 Nuclear power5 .................................................... 101.2 101.1 110.6 114.1 113.6 109.3 113.1 0.4% 

 Pumped storage .................................................. 22.3 22.3 22.3 22.3 22.3 22.3 22.3 0.0% 

					Fuel	cells	.............................................................	 0.0	 0.0	 0.0	 0.0	 0.0	 0.0	 0.0	 0.8%	

 Renewable sources6 ............................................ 125.3 132.3 152.9 155.6 159.7 174.3 206.8 1.6% 

 Distributed generation7 ........................................ 0.0 0.0 0.9 1.9 3.1 4.1 5.1 - - 

 Total ................................................................ 968.7 982.8 985.0 1,009.8 1,051.2 1,100.7 1,177.7 0.6%

 Combined heat and power8 

 Coal ..................................................................... 4.9 4.9 4.3 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 -0.5% 

 Oil and natural gas steam4 .................................. 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.0% 

 Combined cycle ................................................... 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 0.0% 

 Combustion turbine/diesel ................................... 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 -0.1% 

 Renewable sources6 ............................................ 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.2% 

 Total ................................................................ 35.3 35.3 34.6 34.6 34.6 34.6 34.6 -0.1%

 

 Cumulative planned additions9

 Coal ..................................................................... 0.0 0.0 6.1 6.1 6.1 6.1 6.1 - - 

 Oil and natural gas steam4 .................................. 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - 

 Combined cycle ................................................... 0.0 0.0 10.9 10.9 10.9 10.9 10.9 - - 

 Combustion turbine/diesel ................................... 0.0 0.0 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 - - 

 Nuclear power ..................................................... 0.0 0.0 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 - - 

 Pumped storage .................................................. 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - 

					Fuel	cells	.............................................................	 0.0	 0.0	 0.0	 0.0	 0.0	 0.0	 0.0	 -	-	

 Renewable sources6 ............................................ 0.0 0.0 18.1 18.1 18.1 18.1 18.1 - - 

 Distributed generation7 ........................................ 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - 

 Total ................................................................ 0.0 0.0 46.3 46.3 46.3 46.3 46.3 - -

 Cumulative unplanned additions9

 Coal ..................................................................... 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 1.5 - - 

 Oil and natural gas steam4 .................................. 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - 

 Combined cycle ................................................... 0.0 0.0 3.1 17.4 48.2 75.7 98.3 - - 

 Combustion turbine/diesel ................................... 0.0 0.0 15.4 28.0 43.3 56.4 75.3 - - 

 Nuclear power ..................................................... 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 5.5 - - 

 Pumped storage .................................................. 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - 

					Fuel	cells	.............................................................	 0.0	 0.0	 0.0	 0.0	 0.0	 0.0	 0.0	 -	-	

 Renewable sources6 ............................................ 0.0 0.0 3.7 6.4 10.5 25.2 57.6 - - 

 Distributed generation7 ........................................ 0.0 0.0 0.9 1.9 3.1 4.1 5.1 - - 

 Total ................................................................ 0.0 0.0 23.4 54.1 105.4 162.4 243.3 - -

 Cumulative electric power sector additions...... 0.0 0.0 69.7 100.4 151.7 208.7 289.5 - -

 Cumulative retirements10

 Coal ..................................................................... 0.0 0.0 47.9 48.8 48.8 48.8 48.8 - - 

 Oil and natural gas steam4 .................................. 0.0 0.0 15.5 23.6 32.8 35.3 37.9 - - 

 Combined cycle ................................................... 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 - - 

 Combustion turbine/diesel ................................... 0.0 0.0 7.3 7.7 7.9 7.9 8.2 - - 

 Nuclear power ..................................................... 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.6 1.1 6.1 7.1 - - 

 Pumped storage .................................................. 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - 

					Fuel	cells	.............................................................	 0.0	 0.0	 0.0	 0.0	 0.0	 0.0	 0.0	 -	-	

 Renewable sources6 ............................................ 0.0 0.0 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 - - 

 Total ................................................................ 0.0 0.0 72.7 82.1 92.0 99.6 103.4 - -

Total electric power sector capacity ..................... 1,004.1 1,018.1 1,019.6 1,044.4 1,085.8 1,135.3 1,212.3 0.6%
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013 141

Reference case

Table A9. Electricity generating capacity (continued)

(gigawatts)

Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Outlook 2013 

Table A9. Electricity generating capacity (continued)

(gigawatts)

Net summer capacity1

Reference case Annual 

growth 

2011-2040

2010 2011 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 (percent) 

End-use generators11 

 Coal ....................................................................... 3.6 3.6 3.6 4.2 4.4 4.6 4.9 1.1% 

 Petroleum .............................................................. 0.7 0.7 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0% 

 Natural gas ............................................................ 15.1 15.0 17.2 19.7 24.1 30.1 35.1 3.0% 

 Other gaseous fuels12 ............................................ 1.6 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 0.1% 

 Renewable sources6 .............................................. 7.2 8.9 24.2 26.3 29.1 32.7 37.5 5.1% 

 Other13 ................................................................... 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.8% 

 Total ................................................................... 28.7 30.6 48.5 53.7 61.1 71.0 81.0 3.4%

 

 Cumulative capacity additions9 .......................... 0.0 0.0 17.9 23.1 30.5 40.3 50.4 - -

1

Net summer capacity is the steady hourly output that generating equipment is expected to supply to system load (exclusive of auxiliary	 power),	 as	

demonstrated	by	tests	during	summer	peak	demand.	 2

Includes	electricity-only	and	combined	heat	and	power	plants	whose	primary	business	is	to	sell	electricity,	or	electricity	and	heat,	to	the	public.	 3

Includes plants that only produce electricity. Includes capacity increases (uprates) at existing units. 

4

Includes	oil-,	gas-,	and	dual-fired	capacity.	

5

Nuclear capacity includes 8.0 gigawatts of uprates through 2040. 

6

Includes	conventional	hydroelectric,	geothermal,	wood,	wood	waste,	all	municipal	waste,	landfill	gas,	other	biomass,	solar,	and	wind	power.		Facilities	co-firing	

biomass and coal are classified as coal. 7

Primarily	peak	load	capacity	fueled	by	natural	gas.	

8

Includes	combined	heat	and	power	plants	whose	primary	business	is	to	sell	electricity	and	heat	to	the	public	(i.e.,	those	that	report North American Industry 

Classification System code 22). 9

Cumulative	additions	after	December	31,	2011.	

10Cumulative	retirements	after	December	31,	2011.	 11Includes combined heat and power plants and electricity-only plants in the commercial and industrial sectors; and small on-site generating systems in the 

residential,	commercial,	and	industrial	sectors	used	primarily	for	own-use	generation,	but	which	may	also	sell	some	power	to	the grid. 12Includes refinery gas and still gas. 13Includes	batteries,	chemicals,	hydrogen,	pitch,	purchased	steam,	sulfur,	and	miscellaneous	technologies.	

- - = Not applicable. 

Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. Data for 2010 and 2011 are model results and may differ slightly from official 

EIA data reports. 

Sources:		2010	and	2011	capacity	and	projected	planned	additions:		U.S.	Energy	Information	Administration	(EIA),	Form	EIA-860,	"Annual	Electric Generator 

Report” (preliminary). Projections:		EIA,	AEO2013	National	Energy	Modeling	System	run	REF2013.D102312A.
142 U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013

Reference case

Table A10. Electricity trade

(billion kilowatthours, unless otherwise noted)

Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Outlook 2013 

Table A10. Electricity trade

(billion	kilowatthours,	unless	otherwise	noted)

Electricity trade 

Reference case Annual 

growth 

2011-2040

2010 2011 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 (percent) 

Interregional electricity trade 

 Gross domestic sales 

						Firm	power	..........................................................	 237.5 173.8 104.4 47.1 24.2 24.2	 24.2 -6.6%

 Economy ............................................................. 150.1 158.1 162.7 167.5 189.9 186.3 220.2 1.1%

 Total ................................................................ 387.6 332.0 267.1 214.6 214.1 210.5 244.4 -1.1%

 Gross domestic sales (million 2011 dollars) 

						Firm	power	..........................................................	 14,548.9 10,648.8 6,393.5 2,884.8 1,481.3 1,481.3	 1,481.3 -6.6%

						Economy	.............................................................	 7,192.7 6,457.3 8,615.5 9,945.5 10,174.8 11,041.2	 15,088.4 3.0%

 Total ................................................................ 21,741.6 17,106.2 15,008.9 12,830.3 11,656.1 12,522.5 16,569.7 -0.1%

 International electricity trade 

 Imports from Canada and Mexico 

						Firm	power	..........................................................	 13.7 15.0 17.1 5.2 0.4 0.4	 0.4 -11.9%

 Economy ............................................................. 31.4 37.4 25.6 34.8 31.3 27.5 35.5 -0.2%

 Total ................................................................ 45.1 52.4 42.7 40.0 31.7 27.8 35.8 -1.3%

 Exports to Canada and Mexico 

						Firm	power	..........................................................	 3.7 2.6 1.3 0.4 0.0 0.0	 0.0 -	-

 Economy ............................................................. 15.7 12.8 17.3 18.0 18.0 17.8 17.8 1.1%

 Total ................................................................ 19.4 15.4 18.6 18.4 18.0 17.8 17.8 0.5%

- - = Not applicable. 

Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. Data for 2010 and 2011 are model results and may differ slightly from official 

EIA	data	reports.		Firm	power	sales	are	capacity	sales,	meaning	the	delivery	of	the	power	is	scheduled	as	part	of	the	normal	operating conditions of the affected 

electric systems. Economy sales are subject to curtailment or cessation of delivery by the supplier in accordance with prior agreements or under specified 

conditions. 

Sources:		2010	and	2011	interregional	firm	electricity	trade	data:		North	American	Electric	Reliability	Council	(NERC),	Electricity	Sales and Demand Database 

2007;	NERC,	2011	Summer	Reliability	Assessment	(May	2011);	and	NERC,	Winter	Reliability	Assessment	2011/2012	(November	2011).		2010 and 2011 Mexican 

electricity	trade	data:	U.S.	Energy	Information	Administration	(EIA),	Electric Power Annual 2010,	DOE/EIA-0348(2010)	(Washington,	DC,	November	2011).		2010	

Canadian	international	electricity	trade	data:		National	Energy	Board,	Electricity Exports and Imports Statistics, 2010. 2011 Canadian international electricity trade 

data:	 	 National	 Energy	 Board,	 Electricity Exports and Imports Statistics, 2011. Projections:	 	 EIA,	 AEO2013	 National	 Energy	 Modeling	 System	 run	

REF2013.D102312A.
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013 143

Reference case

Table A11. Liquid fuels supply and disposition

(million barrels per day, unless otherwise noted)

Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Outlook 2013 

Table A11. Liquid fuels supply and disposition

(million	barrels	per	day, unless otherwise noted)

Supply and disposition 

Reference case Annual 

growth 

2011-2040

2010 2011 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 (percent) 

Crude oil 

 Domestic crude production1 ................................... 5.47 5.67 7.47 6.79 6.30 6.26 6.13 0.3% 

						Alaska	.................................................................	 0.60	 0.57	 0.49	 0.35	 0.38	 0.35	 0.41	 -1.1%	

 Lower 48 states .................................................. 4.88 5.10 6.98 6.44 5.92 5.91 5.72 0.4% 

 Net imports ............................................................ 9.17 8.89 6.82 7.05 7.36 7.37 7.57 -0.6% 

 Gross imports ..................................................... 9.21 8.94 6.82 7.05 7.36 7.37 7.57 -0.6% 

 Exports ............................................................... 0.04 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 - - 

 Other crude supply2 ............................................... 0.07 0.26 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 - - 

 Total crude supply ............................................ 14.72 14.81 14.29 13.84 13.66 13.63 13.70 -0.3%

 

Other petroleum supply ......................................... 3.41 3.02 4.04 4.12 3.82 3.57 3.29 0.3%

 Natural gas plant liquids ........................................ 2.07 2.22 3.13 3.17 2.90 2.91 2.92 1.0% 

 Net product imports ............................................... 0.29 -0.30 -0.13 -0.04 -0.08 -0.37 -0.67 2.7% 

 Gross refined product imports3 ........................... 1.23 1.15 1.47 1.50 1.53 1.50 1.42 0.7% 

 Unfinished oil imports ......................................... 0.61 0.69 0.56 0.53 0.51 0.48 0.45 -1.5% 

 Blending component imports .............................. 0.74 0.72 0.63 0.59 0.54 0.48 0.40 -2.0% 

 Exports ............................................................... 2.29 2.86 2.79 2.66 2.67 2.84 2.94 0.1% 

 Refinery processing gain4 ...................................... 1.07 1.08 1.04 0.99 1.00 1.02 1.03 -0.1% 

			Product	stock	withdrawal	.......................................	 -0.03	 0.03	 0.00	 0.00	 0.00	 0.00	 0.00	 -	-	

Other non-petroleum supply.................................. 1.03 1.09 1.51 1.55 1.58 1.68 1.97 2.1%

 Supply from renewable sources ............................. 0.86 0.90 1.18 1.15 1.14 1.19 1.43 1.6% 

 Ethanol ............................................................... 0.84 0.84 1.08 1.04 0.99 0.96 0.97 0.5% 

 Domestic production ........................................ 0.87 0.91 1.01 0.98 0.95 0.91 0.89 -0.1% 

 Net imports ...................................................... -0.02 -0.07 0.07 0.06 0.04 0.05 0.08 - - 

 Biodiesel ............................................................. 0.02 0.06 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 1.0% 

 Domestic production ........................................ 0.02 0.06 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.4% 

 Net imports ...................................................... -0.01 -0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 - - 

 Other biomass-derived liquids5 ........................... 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.03 0.06 0.14 0.38 21.6% 

 Liquids from gas .................................................... 0.00 0.00 0.08 0.10 0.13 0.16 0.20 - - 

 Liquids from coal .................................................... 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 - - 

 Other6 .................................................................... 0.17 0.18 0.25 0.26 0.28 0.28 0.28 1.5% 

 

Total primary supply7 ............................................. 19.16 18.92 19.84 19.50 19.06 18.88 18.96 0.0%

 

Liquid fuels consumption 

 by fuel 

 Liquefied petroleum gases .................................. 2.27 2.30 2.90 2.97 2.90 2.83 2.75 0.6% 

 E858 .................................................................... 0.00 0.03 0.06 0.10 0.11 0.10 0.11 4.3% 

 Motor gasoline9 ................................................... 8.99 8.74 8.34 7.78 7.34 7.14 7.12 -0.7% 

 Jet fuel10 ............................................................. 1.43 1.42 1.52 1.56 1.60 1.63 1.66 0.5% 

 Distillate fuel oil11 ................................................ 3.80 3.90 4.48 4.55 4.56 4.59 4.67 0.6% 

 Diesel ............................................................... 3.32 3.51 4.04 4.14 4.18 4.23 4.33 0.7% 

 Residual fuel oil .................................................. 0.54 0.46 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.51 0.51 0.4% 

 Other12 ................................................................ 2.14 2.08 2.04 2.04 2.03 2.06 2.11 0.1% 

 by sector 

 Residential and commercial ................................ 1.06 1.06 1.01 0.97 0.95 0.93 0.91 -0.5% 

 Industrial13 .......................................................... 4.48 4.43 5.10 5.15 5.05 5.01 5.00 0.4% 

 Transportation ..................................................... 13.57 13.63 13.65 13.29 12.95 12.84 12.95 -0.2% 

 Electric power14................................................... 0.17 0.13 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 -1.5% 

 Total ...................................................................... 19.17 18.95 19.84 19.50 19.04 18.86 18.95 0.0%

 

Discrepancy15 .......................................................... -0.01 -0.03 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.01 - -

 
144 U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013

Reference case

Table A11. Liquid fuels supply and disposition (continued)

(million barrels per day, unless otherwise noted)

Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Outlook 2013 

Table A11. Liquid fuels supply and disposition (continued)

(million	barrels	per	day, unless otherwise noted)

Supply and disposition 

Reference case Annual 

growth 

2011-2040

2010 2011 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 (percent) 

 

Domestic refinery distillation capacity16 .................... 17.6 17.7 17.5 17.5 17.5 17.5 17.5 -0.0% 

Capacity utilization rate (percent)17 ........................... 86.0 86.0 90.7 87.8 86.7 86.5 86.9 0.0% 

Net import share of product supplied (percent) ......... 49.3 45.0 34.1 36.3 38.5 37.4 36.9 -0.7% 

Net expenditures for imported crude oil and 

 petroleum products (billion 2011 dollars) ............... 248.26 362.66 259.66 296.86 342.67 378.36 433.65 0.6% 

1

Includes lease condensate. 

2

Strategic	petroleum	reserve	stock	additions	plus	unaccounted	for	crude	oil	and	crude	stock	withdrawals	minus	crude	product	supplied. 3

Includes other hydrocarbons and alcohols. 

4

The	volumetric	amount	by	which	total	output	is	greater	than	input	due	to	the	processing	of	crude	oil	into	products	which,	in	total,	have	a	lower	specific	gravity	

than the crude oil processed. 5

Includes	pyrolysis	oils,	biomass-derived	Fischer-Tropsch	liquids,	and	renewable	feedstocks	used	for	the	on-site	production	of	diesel and gasoline. 6

Includes	domestic	sources	of	other	blending	components,	other	hydrocarbons,	and	ethers.	

7

Total crude supply plus other petroleum supply plus other non-petroleum supply. 

8

E85 refers to a blend of 85 percent ethanol (renewable) and 15 percent motor gasoline (nonrenewable). To address cold starting	issues,	the	percentage	of	

ethanol varies seasonally. The annual average ethanol content of 74 percent is used for this forecast. 9

Includes ethanol and ethers blended into gasoline. 

10Includes	only	kerosene	type.	 11Includes	distillate	fuel	oil	and	kerosene	from	petroleum	and	biomass	feedstocks.	 12Includes	 aviation	 gasoline,	 petrochemical	 feedstocks,	 lubricants,	 waxes,	 asphalt,	 road	 oil,	 still	 gas,	 special	 naphthas,	 petroleum	 coke,	 crude	 oil	 product	

supplied,	methanol,	and	miscellaneous	petroleum	products.	 13Includes	energy	for	combined	heat	and	power	plants	that	have	a	non-regulatory	status,	and	small	on-site	generating	systems.	 14Includes consumption of energy by electricity-only and combined heat and power plants that have a regulatory status. 15Balancing	item.		Includes	unaccounted	for	supply,	losses,	and	gains.	 16End-of-year operable capacity. 17Rate is calculated by dividing the gross annual input to atmospheric crude oil distillation units by their operable refining capacity in barrels per calendar day. 

- - = Not applicable. 

Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. Data for 2010 and 2011 are model results and may differ slightly from official 

EIA data reports. 

Sources:	 	 2010	 and	 2011	 product	 supplied	 based	 on:	 	 U.S.	 Energy	 Information	 Administration	 (EIA),	Annual Energy Review 2011,	 DOE/EIA-0384(2011)	

(Washington,	DC,	September	2012).		Other	2010	data:		EIA,	Petroleum Supply Annual 2010,	DOE/EIA-0340(2010)/1	(Washington,	DC,	July	2011).		Other	2011	

data:		 EIA,	Petroleum Supply Annual 2011,	 DOE/EIA-0340(2011)/1	 (Washington,	 DC,	 August	 2012).	 	Projections:		 EIA,	 AEO2013	 National	 Energy	 Modeling	

System	run	REF2013.D102312A.
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013 145

Reference case

Table A12. Petroleum product prices

(2011 dollars per gallon, unless otherwise noted)

Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Outlook 2013 

Table A12. Petroleum product prices

(2011 dollars per gallon, unless otherwise noted)

Sector and fuel 

Reference case Annual 

growth 

2011-2040

2010 2011 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 (percent) 

Crude oil prices (2011 dollars per barrel) 

 Brent spot .............................................................. 81.31 111.26 105.57 117.36 130.47 145.41 162.68 1.3% 

 West Texas Intermediate spot ............................... 81.08 94.86 103.57 115.36 128.47 143.41 160.68 1.8% 

 Average imported refiners acquisition cost1 ........... 77.49 102.65 102.19 113.48 125.64 138.70 154.96 1.4% 

 

Delivered sector product prices 

 

 Residential 

 Propane .............................................................. 2.34 2.13 1.98 2.09 2.17 2.25 2.35 0.3% 

 Distillate fuel oil ................................................... 3.02 3.66 3.73 4.03 4.34 4.67 5.07 1.1% 

 

 Commercial 

 Distillate fuel oil ................................................... 2.94 3.57 3.34 3.65 3.93 4.26 4.65 0.9% 

 Residual fuel oil .................................................. 1.70 2.87 2.22 2.49 2.81 3.13 3.50 0.7% 

 Residual fuel oil (2011 dollars per barrel) ........... 71.59 120.49 93.20 104.39 117.99 131.32 147.19 0.7% 

 

 Industrial2

 Propane .............................................................. 2.01 1.92 1.74 1.88 1.99 2.10 2.25 0.5% 

 Distillate fuel oil ................................................... 3.01 3.64 3.39 3.71 3.97 4.30 4.69 0.9% 

 Residual fuel oil .................................................. 1.69 2.82 2.57 2.84 3.16 3.48 3.86 1.1% 

 Residual fuel oil (2011 dollars per barrel) ........... 71.03 118.58 108.07 119.19 132.58 146.16 162.10 1.1% 

 

 Transportation 

 Propane .............................................................. 2.33 2.22 2.07 2.18 2.26 2.34 2.44 0.3% 

 Ethanol (E85)3 .................................................... 2.44 2.42 2.83 2.60 2.57 2.79 2.92 0.7% 

 Ethanol wholesale price ...................................... 1.75 2.54 3.00 2.66 2.28 2.32 2.48 -0.1% 

 Motor gasoline4 ................................................... 2.88 3.45 3.32 3.49 3.67 3.94 4.32 0.8% 

 Jet fuel5 ............................................................... 2.24 3.04 2.90 3.20 3.51 3.85 4.19 1.1% 

 Diesel fuel (distillate fuel oil)6 .............................. 3.07 3.58 3.65 3.97 4.22 4.55 4.94 1.1% 

 Residual fuel oil .................................................. 1.59 2.67 2.23 2.48 2.75 3.03 3.36 0.8% 

 Residual fuel oil (2011 dollars per barrel) ........... 66.79 112.11 93.74 104.23 115.30 127.30 141.16 0.8% 

 

 Electric power7

 Distillate fuel oil ................................................... 2.67 3.23 3.11 3.41 3.72 4.05 4.44 1.1% 

 Residual fuel oil .................................................. 1.81 2.39 3.73 4.09 4.39 4.77 5.17 2.7% 

 Residual fuel oil (2011 dollars per barrel) ........... 76.16 100.43 156.82 171.59 184.59 200.24 217.18 2.7% 

 

 Refined petroleum product prices8

 Propane .............................................................. 1.37 1.46 1.16 1.36 1.53 1.72 2.00 1.1% 

 Motor gasoline4 ................................................... 2.86 3.42 3.32 3.49 3.67 3.94 4.32 0.8% 

 Jet fuel5 ............................................................... 2.24 3.04 2.90 3.20 3.51 3.85 4.19 1.1% 

 Distillate fuel oil ................................................... 3.04 3.59 3.60 3.93 4.18 4.51 4.90 1.1% 

 Residual fuel oil .................................................. 1.66 2.64 2.39 2.65 2.93 3.24 3.59 1.1% 

 Residual fuel oil (2011 dollars per barrel) ........... 69.52 110.98 100.39 111.40 123.16 135.88 150.58 1.1% 

 Average........................................................... 2.59 3.11 3.01 3.22 3.43 3.72 4.10 1.0%
146 U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013

Reference case

Table A12. Petroleum product prices (continued)

(nominal dollars per gallon, unless otherwise noted)

Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Outlook 2013 

Table A12. Petroleum product prices (continued)

(nominal	dollars	per	gallon,	unless	otherwise	noted)

Sector and fuel 

Reference case Annual 

growth 

2011-2040

2010 2011 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 (percent) 

Crude oil spot prices 

(nominal dollars per barrel) 

 Brent spot .............................................................. 79.61 111.26 121.73 147.90 180.04 219.73 268.50 3.1% 

 West Texas Intermediate spot ............................... 79.39 94.86 119.43 145.38 177.28 216.70 265.20 3.6% 

 Average imported refiners acquisition cost1 ........... 75.87 102.65 117.84 143.00 173.38 209.59 255.76 3.2% 

 

Delivered sector product prices 

 

 Residential 

 Propane .............................................................. 2.29 2.13 2.29 2.63 2.99 3.40 3.88 2.1% 

 Distillate fuel oil ................................................... 2.96 3.66 4.30 5.08 5.98 7.06 8.37 2.9% 

 

 Commercial 

 Distillate fuel oil ................................................... 2.88 3.57 3.86 4.61 5.42 6.44 7.68 2.7% 

 Residual fuel oil .................................................. 1.67 2.87 2.56 3.13 3.88 4.72 5.78 2.4% 

 Residual fuel oil (nominal dollars per barrel) ....... 70.09 120.49 107.46 131.55 162.83 198.44 242.92 2.4% 

 

 Industrial2

 Propane .............................................................. 1.97 1.92 2.00 2.38 2.75 3.18 3.71 2.3% 

 Distillate fuel oil ................................................... 2.95 3.64 3.91 4.67 5.48 6.49 7.74 2.6% 

 Residual fuel oil .................................................. 1.66 2.82 2.97 3.58 4.36 5.26 6.37 2.8% 

 Residual fuel oil (nominal dollars per barrel) ....... 69.54 118.58 124.61 150.20 182.96 220.86 267.54 2.8% 

 

 Transportation 

 Propane .............................................................. 2.28 2.22 2.39 2.75 3.12 3.53 4.03 2.1% 

 Ethanol (E85)3 .................................................... 2.39 2.42 3.26 3.28 3.55 4.21 4.82 2.4% 

 Ethanol wholesale price ...................................... 1.71 2.54 3.46 3.36 3.14 3.51 4.09 1.7% 

 Motor gasoline4 ................................................... 2.82 3.45 3.83 4.40 5.06 5.95 7.13 2.5% 

 Jet fuel5 ............................................................... 2.19 3.04 3.35 4.04 4.85 5.82 6.92 2.9% 

 Diesel fuel (distillate fuel oil)6 .............................. 3.00 3.58 4.20 5.00 5.83 6.87 8.15 2.9% 

 Residual fuel oil .................................................. 1.56 2.67 2.57 3.13 3.79 4.58 5.55 2.6% 

 Residual fuel oil (nominal dollars per barrel) ....... 65.40 112.11 108.09 131.35 159.10 192.35 232.98 2.6% 

 

 Electric power7

 Distillate fuel oil ................................................... 2.61 3.23 3.59 4.30 5.13 6.13 7.33 2.9% 

 Residual fuel oil .................................................. 1.78 2.39 4.31 5.15 6.06 7.20 8.53 4.5% 

 Residual fuel oil (nominal dollars per barrel) ....... 74.57 100.43 180.83 216.23 254.72 302.58 358.45 4.5% 

 

 Refined petroleum product prices8

 Propane .............................................................. 1.35 1.46 1.34 1.71 2.11 2.60 3.30 2.9% 

 Motor gasoline4 ................................................... 2.81 3.42 3.83 4.40 5.06 5.95 7.13 2.6% 

 Jet fuel5 ............................................................... 2.19 3.04 3.35 4.04 4.85 5.82 6.92 2.9% 

 Distillate fuel oil ................................................... 2.98 3.59 4.15 4.95 5.77 6.81 8.09 2.8% 

 Residual fuel oil .................................................. 1.62 2.64 2.76 3.34 4.05 4.89 5.92 2.8% 

 Residual fuel oil (nominal dollars per barrel) ....... 68.06 110.98 115.76 140.38 169.95 205.33 248.53 2.8% 

 Average........................................................... 2.54 3.11 3.47 4.06 4.74 5.62 6.76 2.7%

1

Weighted average price delivered to U.S. refiners. 

2

Includes	combined	heat	and	power	plants	that	have	a	non-regulatory	status,	and	small	on-site	generating	systems.	

3

E85 refers to a blend of 85 percent ethanol (renewable) and 15 percent motor gasoline (nonrenewable). To address cold starting	issues,	the	percentage	of	

ethanol varies seasonally. The annual average ethanol content of 74 percent is used for this forecast. 4

Sales	weighted-average	price	for	all	grades.		Includes	Federal,	State	and	local	taxes.	

5

Includes	only	kerosene	type.	

6

Diesel	fuel	for	on-road	use.		Includes	Federal	and	State	taxes	while	excluding	county	and	local	taxes.	

7

Includes electricity-only and combined heat and power plants that have a regulatory status. 

8

Weighted averages of end-use fuel prices are derived from the prices in each sector and the corresponding sectoral consumption.

Note: Data for 2010 and 2011 are model results and may differ slightly from official EIA data reports. 

Sources:	 	 2010	 and	 2011	 prices	 for	 motor	 gasoline,	 distillate	 fuel	 oil,	 and	 jet	 fuel	 are	 based	 on:	 U.S.	 Energy	 Information	 Administration	 (EIA),	Petroleum 

Marketing Monthly,	 DOE/EIA-0380(2012/08)	 (Washington,	 DC,	 August	 2012).	 	 2010	 and	 2011	 crude	 oil	 spot	 prices:	 	 Thomson	 Reuters.	 	 2010	 and	 2011	

residential,	 commercial,	 industrial,	 and	transportation	 sector	 petroleum	 product	 prices	 are	 derived	from:		 EIA,	 Form	 EIA-782A,	“Refiners’/Gas Plant Operators’ 

Monthly	Petroleum	Product	Sales	Report.”		2010	and	2011	electric	power	prices	based	on:		EIA,	Monthly Energy Review,	DOE/EIA-0035(2012/09)	(Washington,	

DC,	 September	 2012).		 2010	 and	 2011	 E85	 prices	 derived	from	monthly	 prices	 in	the	 Clean	 Cities	 Alternative	 Fuel	 Price	 Report.		2010 and 2011 wholesale 

ethanol	prices	derived	from	Bloomberg	U.S.	average	rack	price.		Projections:		EIA,	AEO2013	National	Energy	Modeling	System	run	REF2013.D102312A.
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013 147

Reference case

Table A13. Natural gas supply, disposition, and prices

(trillion cubic feet per year, unless otherwise noted)

Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Outlook 2013 

Table A13. Natural gas supply, disposition, and prices

(trillion cubic feet per year,	unless	otherwise	noted)

Supply, disposition, and prices 

Reference case Annual 

growth 

2011-2040

2010 2011 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 (percent) 

Supply 

 Dry gas production1 .............................................. 21.33 23.00 26.61 28.59 29.79 31.35 33.14 1.3% 

 Supplemental natural gas2 .................................... 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.2% 

 Net imports ........................................................... 2.60 1.95 -0.14 -1.58 -2.10 -2.55 -3.55 - - 

 Pipeline3............................................................. 2.24 1.67 0.13 -0.52 -0.67 -1.09 -2.09 - - 

 Liquefied natural gas ......................................... 0.37 0.28 -0.26 -1.06 -1.43 -1.46 -1.46 - - 

Total supply............................................................ 24.00 25.01 26.54 27.07 27.75 28.86 29.65 0.6%

 

Consumption by sector 

 Residential ............................................................ 4.78 4.72 4.52 4.44 4.36 4.24 4.14 -0.5% 

 Commercial........................................................... 3.10 3.16 3.32 3.35 3.42 3.51 3.60 0.4% 

 Industrial4 .............................................................. 6.52 6.77 7.68 7.82 7.79 7.84 7.90 0.5% 

 Natural-gas-to-liquids heat and power5 ................. 0.00 0.00 0.13 0.16 0.21 0.26 0.33 - - 

 Natural gas to liquids production6 ......................... 0.00 0.00 0.14 0.17 0.22 0.28 0.35 - - 

 Electric power7 ...................................................... 7.39 7.60 8.23 8.45 8.89 9.44 9.50 0.8% 

 Transportation8 ..................................................... 0.04 0.04 0.08 0.12 0.26 0.59 1.04 11.9% 

 Pipeline fuel .......................................................... 0.67 0.68 0.70 0.71 0.73 0.74 0.76 0.4% 

 Lease and plant fuel9 ............................................ 1.28 1.39 1.54 1.64 1.70 1.81 1.93 1.1% 

Total consumption ................................................. 23.78 24.37 26.32 26.87 27.57 28.71 29.54 0.7%

 

Discrepancy10 ......................................................... 0.22 0.64 0.22 0.20 0.18 0.15 0.12 - -

 

Natural gas spot price at Henry Hub 

 (2011 dollars per million Btu) ................................ 4.46 3.98 4.13 4.87 5.40 6.32 7.83 2.4% 

 (nominal dollars per million Btu) ............................ 4.37 3.98 4.77 6.14 7.45 9.55 12.92 4.1% 

 

Delivered natural gas prices 

 (2011 dollars per thousand cubic feet) 

 Residential ......................................................... 11.62 11.05 12.05 12.97 13.68 14.93 16.74 1.4% 

 Commercial ........................................................ 9.61 9.04 9.69 10.43 10.94 11.95 13.52 1.4% 

 Industrial4 ........................................................... 5.61 5.00 5.66 6.29 6.71 7.62 9.09 2.1% 

 Electric power7 ................................................... 5.37 4.87 5.00 5.70 6.18 7.13 8.55 2.0% 

 Transportation11 ................................................. 16.89 16.51 17.26 18.39 19.34 20.31 21.68 0.9% 

 Average12 ....................................................... 7.44 6.83 7.23 7.93 8.45 9.51 11.18 1.7%

 (nominal dollars per thousand cubic feet) 

 Residential ......................................................... 11.38 11.05 13.89 16.34 18.87 22.57 27.63 3.2% 

 Commercial ........................................................ 9.41 9.04 11.17 13.14 15.10 18.06 22.31 3.2% 

 Industrial4 ........................................................... 5.49 5.00 6.52 7.93 9.26 11.51 14.99 3.9% 

 Electric power7 ................................................... 5.26 4.87 5.76 7.18 8.53 10.77 14.12 3.7% 

 Transportation11 ................................................. 16.54 16.51 19.90 23.17 26.68 30.70 35.79 2.7% 

 Average12 ....................................................... 7.28 6.83 8.34 9.99 11.66 14.37 18.46 3.5%

1

Marketed	production	(wet)	minus	extraction	losses.	

2

Synthetic	 natural	 gas,	 propane	 air,	 coke	 oven	 gas,	 refinery	 gas,	 biomass	 gas,	 air	 injected	 for	 Btu	 stabilization,	 and	 manufactured gas commingled and 

distributed with natural gas. 3

Includes	any	natural	gas	regasified	in	the	Bahamas	and	transported	via	pipeline	to	Florida,	as	well	as	gas	from	Canada	and	Mexico. 4

Includes	energy	for	combined	heat	and	power	plants	that	have	a	non-regulatory	status,	and	small	on-site	generating	systems.	

5

Includes any natural gas used in the process of converting natural gas to liquid fuel that is not actually converted. 

6

Includes any natural gas converted into liquid fuel. 

7

Includes consumption of energy by electricity-only and combined heat and power plants that have a regulatory status. 

8

Natural gas used as vehicle fuel. 

9

Represents	natural	gas	used	in	well,	field,	and	lease	operations,	in	natural	gas	processing	plant	machinery,	and	for	liquefaction in export facilities. 10Balancing item. Natural gas lost as a result of converting flow data measured at varying temperatures and pressures to a standard temperature and pressure 

and	the	merger	of	different	data	 reporting	systems	which	 vary	in	scope,	format,	definition,	and	 respondent	type.		In	addition,	2010 and 2011 values include net 

storage injections. 11Natural gas used as a vehicle fuel. Price includes estimated motor vehicle fuel taxes and estimated dispensing costs or charges. 12Weighted	average	prices.		Weights	used	are	the	sectoral	consumption	values	excluding	lease,	plant,	and	pipeline	fuel.	

- - = Not applicable. 

Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. Data for 2010 and 2011 are model results and may differ slightly from official EIA 

data reports. 

Sources:	 	 2010	 supply	 values;	 lease,	 plant,	 and	 pipeline	 fuel	 consumption;	 and	 residential,	 commercial,	 and	 industrial	 delivered	 prices: U.S. Energy 

Information	 Administration	 (EIA),	 Natural Gas Annual 2010,	 DOE/EIA-0131(2010)	 (Washington,	 DC,	 December	 2011).	 	 2011	 supply	 values;	 lease,	 plant,	 and	

pipeline	fuel	consumption;	and	residential,	commercial,	and	industrial	delivered	prices:		EIA,	Natural Gas Monthly,	DOE/EIA-0130(2012/07)	(Washington,	DC,	July	

2012).		Other	2010	and	2011	consumption	based	on:		EIA,	Annual Energy Review 2011,	DOE/EIA-0384(2011)	 (Washington,	DC,	September	2012).		2010	and	

2011 natural gas price at Henry Hub based on daily spot prices published in Natural Gas Intelligence. 2010 and 2011 electric power	prices:		EIA,	Electric Power 

Monthly,	DOE/EIA-0226,	April	 2011	 and	April	 2012,	Table	 4.2,	 and	EIA,	State Energy Data Report 2010,	DOE/EIA-0214(2010)	 (Washington,	 DC,	 June	 2012).		

2010	transportation	sector	delivered	prices	are	based	on:	EIA,	Natural Gas Annual 2010,	DOE/EIA-0131(2010)	(Washington,	DC,	December	2011)	and	estimated	

state	taxes,	federal	taxes,	and	dispensing	costs	or	charges.		2011	transportation	sector	delivered	prices	are	model	results.		Projections:		EIA,	AEO2013	National	

Energy	Modeling	System	run	REF2013.D102312A.
148 U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013

Reference case

Table A14. Oil and gas supply

Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Outlook 2013 

Table A14. Oil and gas supply

Production and supply 

Reference case Annual 

growth 

2011-2040

(percent)

2010 2011 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Crude oil 

 Lower 48 average wellhead price1

 (2011 dollars per barrel) ...................................... 76.78 96.55 103.49 115.61 129.26 143.31 160.38 1.8%

 Production (million barrels per day)2

 United States total ............................................... 5.47 5.67 7.47 6.79 6.30 6.26 6.13 0.3% 

 Lower 48 onshore ............................................. 3.21 3.67 5.29 4.99 4.48 4.19 3.97 0.3% 

 Tight oil3 ......................................................... 0.82 1.22 2.81 2.63 2.19 2.06 2.02 1.7% 

 Carbon dioxide enhanced oil recovery ........... 0.28 0.24 0.29 0.43 0.56 0.65 0.66 3.5% 

 Other .............................................................. 2.11 2.20 2.19 1.93 1.72 1.48 1.30 -1.8% 

 Lower 48 offshore ............................................. 1.67 1.43 1.69 1.46 1.44 1.72 1.75 0.7% 

								Alaska	...............................................................	 0.60	 0.57	 0.49	 0.35	 0.38	 0.35	 0.41	 -1.1%	

 

 Lower 48 end of year reserves2

 (billion barrels) ...................................................... 21.46 21.36 24.63 24.37 24.92 26.19 26.72 0.8%

 

Natural gas 

 Natural gas spot price at Henry Hub 

 (2011 dollars per million Btu) ................................. 4.46 3.98 4.13 4.87 5.40 6.32 7.83 2.4% 

 Dry production (trillion cubic feet)4

 United States total ............................................... 21.33 23.00 26.61 28.59 29.79 31.35 33.14 1.3% 

 Lower 48 onshore ............................................. 18.54 20.54 24.27 25.67 26.26 27.35 29.12 1.2% 

 Associated-dissolved5 .................................... 1.47 1.54 2.14 1.99 1.43 1.26 1.09 -1.2% 

 Non-associated .............................................. 17.07 19.00 22.13 23.67 24.83 26.10 28.03 1.4% 

 Tight gas ..................................................... 6.34 5.86 6.40 6.56 6.67 6.96 7.34 0.8% 

 Shale gas .................................................... 4.86 7.85 11.05 12.84 14.17 15.33 16.70 2.6% 

 Coalbed methane ....................................... 1.69 1.71 1.71 1.66 1.69 1.73 2.11 0.7% 

 Other ........................................................... 4.18 3.58 2.97 2.61 2.31 2.07 1.87 -2.2% 

 Lower 48 offshore ............................................. 2.44 2.11 2.07 2.19 2.34 2.81 2.85 1.0% 

 Associated-dissolved5 .................................... 0.59 0.54 0.66 0.64 0.60 0.74 0.74 1.1% 

 Non-associated .............................................. 1.85 1.58 1.41 1.55 1.73 2.07 2.11 1.0% 

								Alaska	...............................................................	 0.35	 0.35	 0.28	 0.73	 1.19	 1.18	 1.18	 4.3%	

 

 Lower 48 end of year dry reserves4

 (trillion cubic feet) ................................................ 295.79 298.96 332.51 342.08 350.65 356.26 359.97 0.6% 

 

 Supplemental gas supplies (trillion cubic feet)6 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.2%

Total lower 48 wells drilled (thousands) ............... 43.27 41.10 48.84 54.26 57.91 63.76 76.65 2.2%

1

Represents lower 48 onshore and offshore supplies. 

2

Includes lease condensate. 

3

Tight	 oil	 represents	 resources	 in	 low-permeability	 reservoirs,	 including	 shale	 and	 chalk	formations.		 The	 specific	 plays	 included in the tight oil category are 

Bakken/Three	Forks/Sanish,	Eagle	Ford,	Woodford,	Austin	Chalk,	Spraberry,	Niobrara,	Avalon/Bone	Springs,	and	Monterey.	 4

Marketed	production	(wet)	minus	extraction	losses.	

5

Gas which occurs in crude oil reservoirs either as free gas (associated) or as gas in solution with crude oil (dissolved). 

6

Synthetic	 natural	 gas,	 propane	 air,	 coke	 oven	 gas,	 refinery	 gas,	 biomass	 gas,	 air	 injected	 for	 Btu	 stabilization,	 and	 manufactured gas commingled and 

distributed with natural gas. 

Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. Data for 2010 and 2011 are model results and may differ slightly from official EIA 

data reports. 

Sources:		2010	and	2011	crude	oil	lower	48	average	wellhead	price:		U.S.	Energy	Information	Administration	(EIA),	Petroleum Marketing Monthly,	DOE/EIA0380(2012/08)	 (Washington,	DC,	August	2012).		2010	and	2011	lower	48	onshore,	lower	48	offshore,	and	Alaska	crude	oil	production:		EIA,	Petroleum Supply 

Annual 2011,	 DOE/EIA-0340(2011)/1	 (Washington,	 DC,	August	 2012).		 2010	 U.S.	 crude	 oil	 and	 natural	 gas	 reserves:		 EIA,	U.S. Crude Oil, Natural Gas, and 

Natural Gas Liquids Reserves,	 DOE/EIA-0216(2010)	 (Washington,	 DC,	 August	 2012).	 	 2010	 Alaska	 and	 total	 natural	 gas	 production,	 and	 supplemental	 gas	

supplies:		EIA,	Natural Gas Annual 2010,	DOE/EIA-0131(2010)	(Washington,	DC,	December	2011).		2010	and	2011	natural	gas	spot	price	at	Henry	Hub	based	on	

daily	data	from	Natural	Gas	Intelligence.		2011	Alaska	and	total	natural	gas	production,	 and	 supplemental	gas	 supplies:		EIA,	Natural Gas Monthly,	DOE/EIA0130Natural	Gas	Monthly,	DOE/EIA-0130(2012/07)	 (Washington,	DC,	July	2012).		Other	2010	and	2011	 values:		EIA,	Office	of	Energy Analysis. Projections:

EIA,	AEO2013	National	Energy	Modeling	System	run	REF2013.D102312A.
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013 149

Reference case

Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Outlook 2013 

Table A15. Coal supply, disposition, and prices

(million short tons per year,	unless	otherwise	noted)

Supply, disposition, and prices 

Reference case Annual 

growth 

2011-2040

2010 2011 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 (percent) 

Production1

 Appalachia ............................................................. 336 337 288 295 295 289 283 -0.6% 

 Interior ................................................................... 156 171 198 203 212 217 226 1.0% 

 West ...................................................................... 592 588 585 616 646 664 658 0.4% 

 

 East of the Mississippi ........................................... 446 456 438 447 456 455 453 -0.0% 

 West of the Mississippi .......................................... 638 639 633 666 697 716 714 0.4% 

 Total ................................................................... 1,084 1,096 1,071 1,113 1,153 1,171 1,167 0.2%

Waste coal supplied2 .............................................. 14 13 19 21 20 23 27 2.7%

Net imports 

 Imports3 ................................................................. 18 11 2 5 5 22 36 4.0% 

 Exports .................................................................. 82 107 127 129 144 158 159 1.4% 

 Total ................................................................... -64 -96 -125 -124 -139 -136 -123 0.9%

 

Total supply4 ........................................................... 1,034 1,012 966 1,010 1,034 1,058 1,071 0.2%

Consumption by sector 

 Residential and commercial ................................... 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 -0.3% 

			Coke	plants	............................................................	 21	 21	 23	 22	 20	 18	 18	 -0.7%	

 Other industrial5 ..................................................... 49 46 50 50 50 51 52 0.4% 

 Coal-to-liquids heat and power .............................. 0 0 0 3 5 6 8 - - 

 Coal to liquids production ...................................... 0 0 0 3 4 5 6 - - 

 Electric power6 ....................................................... 975 929 890 929 953 975 984 0.2% 

 Total ................................................................... 1,049 999 966 1,010 1,034 1,058 1,071 0.2%

 

Discrepancy and stock change7 ............................ -14 13 0 -0 0 1 0 - -

Average minemouth price8

 (2011 dollars per short ton) .................................... 36.37 41.16 49.26 52.02 55.64 58.57 61.28 1.4% 

 (2011 dollars per million Btu) ................................. 1.80 2.04 2.45 2.60 2.79 2.94 3.08 1.4% 

 

Delivered prices9

(2011 dollars per short ton) 

			Coke	plants	............................................................	 156.87	 184.44	 229.19	 245.15	 264.13	 279.68	 290.84	 1.6% 

 Other industrial5 ..................................................... 65.76 70.68 72.44 74.98 78.25 81.84 85.63 0.7% 

 Coal to liquids ........................................................ - - - - - - 49.54 47.71 53.07 55.60 - - 

 Electric power6 

 (2011 dollars per short ton) ................................. 45.21 46.38 47.91 51.14 54.37 57.39 60.77 0.9% 

 (2011 dollars per million Btu) .............................. 2.30 2.38 2.52 2.69 2.87 3.03 3.20 1.0% 

 Average ......................................................... 48.40 50.64 53.47 56.58 59.53 62.37 65.70 0.9%

 Exports10 ................................................................ 122.98 148.86 168.73 172.99 177.76 177.60 176.05 0.6% 

Table A15. Coal supply, disposition, and prices

(million short tons per year, unless otherwise noted)
150 U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013

Reference case

Table A15. Coal supply, disposition, and prices (continued)

(million short tons per year, unless otherwise noted)

Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Outlook 2013 

Table A15. Coal supply, disposition, and prices (continued)

(million short tons per year,	unless	otherwise	noted)

Supply, disposition, and prices 

Reference case Annual 

growth 

2011-2040

2010 2011 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 (percent) 

Average minemouth price8

 (nominal dollars per short ton) ............................... 35.61 41.16 56.81 65.55 76.78 88.51 101.14 3.1% 

 (nominal dollars per million Btu) ............................. 1.76 2.04 2.83 3.27 3.85 4.44 5.08 3.2% 

 

Delivered prices9

(nominal dollars per short ton) 

			Coke	plants	............................................................	 153.59	 184.44	 264.27	 308.93	 364.48	 422.61	 480.01	 3.4% 

 Other industrial5 ..................................................... 64.38 70.68 83.52 94.49 107.97 123.66 141.33 2.4% 

 Coal to liquids ........................................................ - - - - - - 62.44 65.84 80.19 91.77 - - 

 Electric power6 

 (nominal dollars per short ton) ............................ 44.27 46.38 55.24 64.45 75.02 86.73 100.29 2.7% 

 (nominal dollars per million Btu) .......................... 2.25 2.38 2.90 3.39 3.96 4.58 5.28 2.8% 

 Average ......................................................... 47.39 50.64 61.66 71.30 82.14 94.24 108.43 2.7%

 Exports10 ................................................................ 120.41 148.86 194.56 217.99 245.30 268.37 290.56 2.3% 

1

Includes	anthracite,	bituminous	coal,	subbituminous	coal,	and	lignite.	

2

Includes waste coal consumed by the electric power and industrial sectors. Waste coal supplied is counted as a supply-side item to balance the same amount 

of waste coal included in the consumption data. 3

Excludes imports to Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. 

4

Production plus waste coal supplied plus net imports. 

5

Includes	consumption	for	combined	heat	and	power	plants	that	have	a	non-regulatory	status,	and	small	on-site	generating	systems. Excludes all coal use in 

the coal-to-liquids process. 6

Includes all electricity-only and combined heat and power plants that have a regulatory status. 

7

Balancing	item:		the	sum	of	production,	net	imports,	and	waste	coal	supplied	minus	total	consumption.	

8

Includes	reported	prices	for	both	open	market	and	captive	mines.		Prices	weighted	by	production,	which	differs	from	average	minemouth prices published in 

EIA data reports where it is weighted by reported sales. 9

Prices	weighted	by	consumption;	weighted	average	excludes	residential	and	commercial	prices,	and	export	free-alongside-ship	(f.a.s.) prices. 10F.a.s.	price	at	U.S.	port	of	exit.	

- - = Not applicable. 

Btu = British thermal unit. 

Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. Data for 2010 and 2011 are model results and may differ slightly from official 

EIA data reports. 

Sources:		2010	and	2011	data	based	on:		U.S.	Energy	Information	Administration	 (EIA),	Annual Coal Report 2011,	DOE/EIA-0584(2011)	 (Washington,	DC,	

November	 2012);	EIA,	Quarterly Coal Report, October-December 2011,	DOE/EIA-0121(2011/4Q)	 (Washington,	DC,	March	 2012);	 and	EIA,	AEO2013	National	

Energy	Modeling	System	run	REF2013.D102312A.		Projections:		EIA,	AEO2013	National	Energy	Modeling	System	run	REF2013.D102312A.
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013 151

Reference case

Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Outlook 2013 

Table A16. Renewable energy generating capacity and generation

(gigawatts,	unless	otherwise	noted)

Net summer capacity and generation 

Reference case Annual 

growth 

2011-2040

2010 2011 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 (percent) 

Electric power sector1 

 Net summer capacity

 Conventional hydropower .................................. 77.82 77.87 78.34 78.94 79.11 79.63 80.31 0.1% 

 Geothermal2....................................................... 2.38 2.38 3.63 4.34 5.70 6.60 7.46 4.0% 

 Municipal waste3 ................................................ 3.26 3.34 3.44 3.44 3.44 3.44 3.44 0.1% 

 Wood and other biomass4.................................. 2.38 2.37 2.82 2.83 2.85 3.16 3.70 1.6% 

 Solar thermal ..................................................... 0.49 0.49 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35 3.6% 

 Solar photovoltaic5 ............................................. 0.37 1.01 5.37 5.91 6.80 11.84 24.54 11.6% 

 Wind .................................................................. 39.40 45.68 58.81 59.62 61.30 69.14 86.83 2.2% 

 Offshore wind ..................................................... 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 - - 

 Total electric power sector capacity ........... 126.09 133.14 153.75 156.43 160.54 175.17 207.63 1.5%

 Generation (billion kilowatthours) 

 Conventional hydropower .................................. 258.46 323.14 288.54 291.38 292.39 295.18 297.28 -0.3% 

 Geothermal2....................................................... 15.22 16.70 25.28 30.98 42.02 49.36 56.40 4.3% 

 Biogenic municipal waste6 ................................. 15.78 16.62 14.09 14.09 14.09 14.09 14.10 -0.6% 

 Wood and other biomass ................................... 11.45 10.50 54.45 68.99 65.48 66.41 75.64 7.0% 

 Dedicated plants ............................................. 10.37 9.35 14.85 15.12 15.30 17.62 21.59 2.9% 

 Cofiring ........................................................... 1.07 1.16 39.60 53.87 50.18 48.79 54.05 14.2% 

 Solar thermal ..................................................... 0.79 0.81 2.74 2.74 2.73 2.73 2.73 4.3% 

 Solar photovoltaic5 ............................................. 0.42 0.97 9.83 10.99 13.40 24.81 56.22 15.0% 

 Wind .................................................................. 94.62 119.63 163.48 166.73 172.11 195.46 251.94 2.6% 

 Offshore wind ..................................................... 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 - - 

 Total electric power sector generation ....... 396.73 488.38 558.41 585.90 602.22 648.05 754.32 1.5%

 

End-use sectors7 

 Net summer capacity

 Conventional hydropower ............................... 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.0% 

 Geothermal ..................................................... 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 - - 

 Municipal waste8 ............................................. 0.35 0.46 0.46 0.46 0.46 0.46 0.46 0.0% 

 Biomass .......................................................... 4.57 4.92 6.87 7.62 8.34 9.16 10.18 2.5% 

 Solar photovoltaic5 .......................................... 1.82 3.02 15.63 16.95 18.94 21.53 25.08 7.6% 

 Wind ............................................................... 0.17 0.21 0.87 0.92 1.05 1.23 1.51 7.1% 

 Total end-use sector capacity .................. 7.24 8.93 24.15 26.28 29.12 32.71 37.55 5.1%

 

 Generation (billion kilowatthours) 

 Conventional hydropower ............................... 1.75 1.89 1.82 1.82 1.82 1.82 1.82 -0.1% 

 Geothermal ..................................................... 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 - - 

 Municipal waste8 ............................................. 1.94 2.04 3.55 3.55 3.55 3.55 3.55 1.9% 

 Biomass .......................................................... 25.73 26.75 36.95 41.35 45.55 50.32 56.25 2.6% 

 Solar photovoltaic5 .......................................... 2.85 4.71 24.53 26.69 29.91 34.10 39.97 7.7% 

 Wind ............................................................... 0.22 0.28 1.23 1.31 1.50 1.76 2.15 7.4% 

 Total end-use sector generation .............. 32.48 35.68 68.09 74.72 82.33 91.56 103.74 3.7%

Table A16. Renewable energy generating capacity and generation

(gigawatts, unless otherwise noted)
152 U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013

Reference case

Table A16. Renewable energy generating capacity and generation (continued)

(gigawatts, unless otherwise noted)

Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Outlook 2013 

Table A16. Renewable energy generating capacity and generation (continued)

(gigawatts,	unless	otherwise	noted)

Net summer capacity and generation 

Reference case Annual 

growth 

2011-2040

2010 2011 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 (percent) 

Total, all sectors 

 Net summer capacity

 Conventional hydropower .................................. 78.15 78.20 78.66 79.27 79.43 79.96 80.64 0.1% 

 Geothermal ........................................................ 2.38 2.38 3.63 4.34 5.70 6.60 7.46 4.0% 

 Municipal waste ................................................. 3.61 3.80 3.89 3.89 3.89 3.89 3.89 0.1% 

 Wood and other biomass4.................................. 6.95 7.29 9.69 10.45 11.19 12.32 13.88 2.2% 

 Solar5 ................................................................. 2.67 4.52 22.35 24.22 27.09 34.73 50.96 8.7% 

 Wind .................................................................. 39.57 45.88 59.68 60.54 62.35 70.37 88.35 2.3% 

 Total capacity, all sectors ............................ 133.33 142.06 177.90 182.71 189.66 207.88 245.17 1.9%

 

 Generation (billion kilowatthours) 

 Conventional hydropower .................................. 260.20 325.03 290.37 293.20 294.21 297.01 299.11 -0.3% 

 Geothermal ........................................................ 15.22 16.70 25.28 30.98 42.02 49.36 56.40 4.3% 

 Municipal waste ................................................. 17.71 18.66 17.63 17.64 17.64 17.64 17.64 -0.2% 

 Wood and other biomass ................................... 37.17 37.26 91.40 110.34 111.03 116.73 131.89 4.5% 

 Solar5 ................................................................. 4.05 6.50 37.10 40.42 46.04 61.65 98.92 9.8% 

 Wind .................................................................. 94.85 119.91 164.71 168.04 173.61 197.22 254.10 2.6% 

 Total generation, all sectors ........................ 429.21 524.06 626.49 660.62 684.55 739.61 858.06 1.7%

1

Includes electricity-only and combined heat and power plants that have a regulatory status. 

2

Includes both hydrothermal resources (hot water and steam) and near-field enhanced geothermal systems (EGS). Near-field EGS potential	occurs	on	known	

hydrothermal	sites,	however	this	potential	requires	the	addition	of	external	fluids	for	electricity	generation	and	is	only	available after 2025. 3

Includes	municipal	waste,	 landfill	gas,	and	municipal	 sewage	 sludge.		Incremental	growth	 is	assumed	to	be	for	 landfill	gas	facilities. All municipal waste is 

included,	although	a	portion	of	the	municipal	waste	stream	contains	petroleum-derived	plastics	and	other	non-renewable	sources. 4

Facilities	co-firing	biomass	and	coal	are	classified	as	coal.	

5

Does	 not	 include	 off-grid	 photovoltaics	 (PV).		 Based	 on	 annual	 PV	 shipments	from	 1989	through	 2010,	 EIA	 estimates	that	 as	much	as 245 megawatts of 

remote	 electricity	 generation	 PV	 applications	 (i.e.,	 off-grid	 power	 systems)	 were	 in	 service	 in	 2010,	 plus	 an	 additional	 558	 megawatts	 in	 communications,	

transportation,	and	assorted	other	non-grid-connected,	specialized	applications.		See	U.S.	Energy	Information	Administration,	,	DOE/EIA-0384(2011)	(Washington,	

DC,	September	2012),	Table	10.9	(annual	PV	shipments,	1989-2010).		The	approach	used	to	develop	the	estimate,	based	on	shipment	data,	provides	an	upper	

estimate	of	the	size	of	the	PV	stock,	including	both	grid-based	and	off-grid	PV.		It	will	overestimate	the	size	of	the	stock,	because shipments include a substantial 

number	of	units	that	are	exported,	and	each	year	some	of	the	PV	units	installed	earlier	will	be	retired	from	service	or	abandoned. 6

Includes	biogenic	municipal	waste,	landfill	gas,	and	municipal	sewage	sludge.		Incremental	growth	is	assumed	to	be	for	landfill gas facilities. Only biogenic 

municipal	waste	is	included.		The	U.S.	Energy	Information	Administration	estimates	that	in	2011	approximately	6	billion	kilowatthours of electricity were generated 

from a municipal waste stream containing petroleum-derived plastics and other non-renewable sources. See U.S. Energy Information	Administration,	Methodology 

for Allocating Municipal Solid Waste to Biogenic and Non-Biogenic Energy	(Washington,	DC,	May	2007).	 7

Includes combined heat and power plants and electricity-only plants in the commercial and industrial sectors that have a non-regulatory status; and small onsite	generating	systems	in	the	 residential,	commercial,	and	industrial	sectors	used	primarily	for	own-use	generation,	but	which may also sell some power to the 

grid. 8

Includes	 municipal	 waste,	 landfill	 gas,	 and	 municipal	 sewage	 sludge.	 	 All	 municipal	 waste	 is	 included,	 although	 a	 portion	 of	 the municipal waste stream 

contains petroleum-derived plastics and other non-renewable sources. 

- - = Not applicable. 

Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. Data for 2010 and 2011 are model results and may differ slightly from official EIA 

data reports. 

Sources:		2010	and	2011	capacity:		U.S.	Energy	Information	Administration	(EIA),	Form	EIA-860,	"Annual	Electric	Generator	Report"	(preliminary). 2010 and 

2011	generation:		EIA,	Annual Energy Review 2011,	DOE/EIA-0384(2011)	 (Washington,	DC,	September	2012).		Projections:		EIA,	AEO2013	National	Energy	

Modeling	System	run	REF2013.D102312A.
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013 153

Reference case

Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Outlook 2013 

Table A17. Renewable energy consumption by sector and source

(quadrillion Btu per year)

Sector and source 

Reference case Annual 

growth 

2011-2040

2010 2011 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 (percent) 

Marketed renewable energy1

 Residential (wood) ............................................... 0.44 0.45 0.44 0.44 0.45 0.45 0.45 0.1%

 

 Commercial (biomass) ........................................ 0.11 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.0%

 Industrial2 ............................................................. 2.32 2.18 2.53 2.67 2.82 3.08 3.65 1.8%

 Conventional hydroelectric ................................. 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.0% 

 Municipal waste3 ................................................. 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.1% 

 Biomass .............................................................. 1.27 1.31 1.51 1.65 1.77 1.91 2.08 1.6% 

 Biofuels heat and coproducts.............................. 0.85 0.67 0.82 0.82 0.85 0.97 1.37 2.5% 

 

 Transportation ..................................................... 1.14 1.22 1.60 1.58 1.58 1.71 2.21 2.1%

 Ethanol used in E854 .......................................... 0.00 0.03 0.05 0.09 0.11 0.10 0.11 4.3% 

 Ethanol used in gasoline blending ...................... 1.09 1.06 1.35 1.26 1.19 1.15 1.15 0.3% 

 Biodiesel used in distillate blending .................... 0.03 0.12 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16 1.0% 

 Liquids from biomass .......................................... 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.04 0.10 0.27 0.76 - - 

 Renewable diesel and gasoline5 ......................... 0.01 0.00 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 7.9% 

 

 Electric power6 ..................................................... 3.85 4.74 5.49 5.77 5.93 6.38 7.44 1.6%

 Conventional hydroelectric ................................. 2.52 3.15 2.82 2.84 2.85 2.88 2.90 -0.3% 

 Geothermal ......................................................... 0.15 0.16 0.25 0.30 0.41 0.48 0.55 4.3% 

 Biogenic municipal waste7 .................................. 0.05 0.05 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.8% 

 Biomass .............................................................. 0.20 0.19 0.64 0.79 0.76 0.78 0.88 5.4% 

 Dedicated plants .............................................. 0.17 0.15 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.28 0.33 2.7% 

 Cofiring ............................................................ 0.02 0.04 0.40 0.55 0.51 0.50 0.55 9.9% 

 Solar thermal ...................................................... 0.01 0.01 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 4.3% 

 Solar photovoltaic ............................................... 0.00 0.01 0.10 0.11 0.13 0.24 0.55 15.0% 

 Wind ................................................................... 0.92 1.17 1.59 1.63 1.68 1.91 2.46 2.6% 

 

Total marketed renewable energy ......................... 7.85 8.71 10.19 10.58 10.89 11.75 13.87 1.6%

Sources of ethanol 

 from corn and other starch ..................................... 1.13 1.18 1.29 1.25 1.22 1.17 1.13 -0.1% 

 from cellulose ......................................................... 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 13.8% 

 Net imports ............................................................ -0.03 -0.09 0.09 0.08 0.06 0.06 0.11 - - 

 Total ................................................................... 1.09 1.09 1.40 1.35 1.29 1.25 1.26 0.5%

Table A17. Renewable energy consumption by sector and source

(quadrillion Btu per year)
154 U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013

Reference case

Table A17. Renewable energy consumption by sector and source (continued)

(quadrillion Btu per year)

Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Outlook 2013 

Table A17. Renewable energy consumption by sector and source (continued)

(quadrillion Btu per year)

Sector and source 

Reference case Annual 

growth 

2011-2040

2010 2011 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 (percent) 

Nonmarketed renewable energy8

 Selected consumption 

 Residential............................................................ 0.03 0.04 0.20 0.21 0.22 0.24 0.27 6.9%

 Solar hot water heating ....................................... 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 1.6% 

 Geothermal heat pumps ..................................... 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.03 4.3% 

 Solar photovoltaic ............................................... 0.01 0.02 0.14 0.15 0.17 0.18 0.21 9.1% 

 Wind ................................................................... 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 7.0% 

 

 Commercial ......................................................... 0.10 0.11 0.20 0.22 0.24 0.28 0.32 3.7%

 Solar thermal ...................................................... 0.08 0.08 0.09 0.10 0.10 0.11 0.12 1.4% 

 Solar photovoltaic ............................................... 0.02 0.03 0.10 0.12 0.13 0.16 0.19 6.6% 

 Wind ................................................................... 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 7.7% 

1

Includes	nonelectric	renewable	energy	groups	for	which	the	energy	source	is	bought	and	sold	in	the	marketplace,	although	all	transactions may not necessarily 

be	marketed,	and	marketed	renewable	energy	inputs	for	electricity	entering	the	marketplace	on	the	electric	power	grid.		Excludes electricity imports; see Table A2. 2

Includes	energy	for	combined	heat	and	power	plants	that	have	a	non-regulatory	status,	and	small	on-site	generating	systems.	

3

Includes	 municipal	 waste,	 landfill	 gas,	 and	 municipal	 sewage	 sludge.	 	 All	 municipal	 waste	 is	 included,	 although	 a	 portion	 of	 the municipal waste stream 

contains petroleum-derived plastics and other non-renewable sources. 4

Excludes motor gasoline component of E85. 

5

Renewable	feedstocks	for	the	on-site	production	of	diesel	and	gasoline.	

6

Includes consumption of energy by electricity-only and combined heat and power plants that have a regulatory status. Actual heat rates used to determine fuel 

consumption	 for	 all	 renewable	 fuels	 except	 hydropower,	 geothermal,	 solar,	 and	 wind.	 	 Consumption	 at	 hydroelectric,	 geothermal,	 solar,	 and	 wind	 facilities	

determined	by	using	the	fossil	fuel	equivalent	of	9,756	Btu	per	kilowatthour.	 7

Includes	biogenic	municipal	waste,	landfill	gas,	and	municipal	sewage	sludge.		Incremental	growth	is	assumed	to	be	for	landfill gas facilities. Only biogenic 

municipal waste is included. The U.S. Energy Information Administration estimates that in 2011 approximately 0.3 quadrillion Btus were consumed from a 

municipal waste stream containing petroleum-derived plastics and other non-renewable sources. See U.S. Energy Information Administration,	Methodology for 

Allocating Municipal Solid Waste to Biogenic and Non-Biogenic Energy	(Washington,	DC,	May	2007).	 8

Includes	selected	renewable	energy	consumption	data	for	which	the	energy	is	not	bought	or	sold,	either	directly	or	indirectly	as	an	input	to	marketed	energy.		

The	U.S.	Energy	Information	Administration	does	not	estimate	or	project	total	consumption	of	nonmarketed	renewable	energy.	

- - = Not applicable. 

Btu = British thermal unit. 

Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. Data for 2010 and 2011 are model results and may differ slightly from official EIA 

data reports. 

Sources:	 	 2010	 and	 2011	 ethanol:	 	 U.S.	 Energy	 Information	 Administration	 (EIA),	 Annual Energy Review 2011,	 DOE/EIA-0384(2011)	 (Washington,	 DC,	

September	2012).		2010	and	2011	electric	power	sector:		EIA,	Form	EIA-860,	"Annual	Electric	Generator	Report”	(preliminary).		Other	2010	and	2011	values:		EIA,	

Office of Energy Analysis. Projections:		EIA,	AEO2013	National	Energy	Modeling	System	run	REF2013.D102312A.
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013 155

Reference case

Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Outlook 2013 

Table A18. Energy-related carbon dioxide emissions by sector and source

(million	metric	tons,	unless	otherwise	noted)

Sector and source 

Reference case Annual 

growth 

2011-2040

2010 2011 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 (percent) 

Residential 

 Petroleum .............................................................. 85 78 71 66 62 59 57 -1.1% 

 Natural gas ............................................................ 267 256 245 241 236 230 225 -0.5% 

 Coal ....................................................................... 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 -0.8% 

 Electricity1 .............................................................. 875 828 744 776 817 862 888 0.2% 

 Total residential ................................................ 1,228 1,162 1,061 1,084 1,117 1,152 1,170 0.0%

Commercial

 Petroleum .............................................................. 51 49 47 46 45 45 44 -0.3% 

 Natural gas ............................................................ 173 171 180 182 186 191 195 0.5% 

 Coal ....................................................................... 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 0.0% 

 Electricity1 .............................................................. 805 767 725 760 796 831 843 0.3% 

 Total commercial .............................................. 1,034 992 957 992 1,032 1,071 1,087 0.3%

Industrial2

 Petroleum .............................................................. 344 345 355 349 342 342 347 0.0% 

 Natural gas3 ........................................................... 408 417 491 506 511 523 538 0.9% 

 Coal ....................................................................... 157 143 154 157 152 150 155 0.3% 

 Electricity1 .............................................................. 587 567 607 619 604 592 575 0.0% 

 Total industrial .................................................. 1,496 1,472 1,606 1,631 1,608 1,607 1,615 0.3%

Transportation 

 Petroleum4 ............................................................. 1,836	 1,802	 1,785	 1,744	 1,705	 1,695	 1,712	 -0.2%	

 Natural gas5 ........................................................... 36 39 42 45 53 72 97 3.2% 

 Electricity1 .............................................................. 4 4 5 6 7 8 10 3.3% 

 Total transportation .......................................... 1,876 1,845 1,831 1,794 1,766 1,776 1,819 -0.0%

 

Electric power6

 Petroleum .............................................................. 33 25 13 14 14 14 14 -2.0% 

 Natural gas ............................................................ 399 411 446 458 482 511 514 0.8% 

			Coal	.......................................................................	 1,828	 1,718	 1,610	 1,678	 1,717	 1,757	 1,775	 0.1%	

 Other7 .................................................................... 12 11 11 11 11 11 11 0.0% 

 Total electric power .......................................... 2,271 2,166 2,081 2,161 2,224 2,293 2,315 0.2%

Total by fuel 

 Petroleum4 ............................................................. 2,349	 2,299	 2,270	 2,218	 2,169	 2,156	 2,175	 -0.2%	

			Natural	gas	............................................................	 1,283	 1,294	 1,404	 1,431	 1,468	 1,528	 1,569	 0.7%	

			Coal	.......................................................................	 1,990	 1,867	 1,769	 1,841	 1,874	 1,912	 1,936	 0.1%	

 Other7 .................................................................... 12 11 11 11 11 11 11 0.0% 

 Total ................................................................... 5,634 5,471 5,455 5,501 5,523 5,607 5,691 0.1%

 

Carbon dioxide emissions 

 (tons per person) ................................................... 18.2 17.5 16.0 15.4 14.8 14.4 14.1 -0.8%

1

Emissions from the electric power sector are distributed to the end-use sectors. 

2

Includes	combined	heat	and	power	plants	that	have	a	non-regulatory	status,	and	small	on-site	generating	systems.	

3

Includes lease and plant fuel. 

4

This	includes	 carbon	dioxide	from	international	bunker	fuels,	both	 civilian	and	military,	which	are	excluded	from	the	accounting of carbon dioxide emissions 

under	the	United	Nations	convention.		From	1990	through	2009,	international	bunker	fuels	accounted	for	90	to	126	million	metric tons annually. 5

Includes pipeline fuel natural gas and natural gas used as vehicle fuel. 

6

Includes electricity-only and combined heat and power plants that have a regulatory status. 

7

Includes emissions from geothermal power and nonbiogenic emissions from municipal waste. 

Note:		By	convention,	the	direct	emissions	from	biogenic	energy	sources	are	excluded	from	energy-related	carbon	dioxide	emissions. The release of carbon 

from	these	sources	is	assumed	to	be	balanced	by	the	uptake	of	carbon	when	the	feedstock	is	grown,	resulting	in	zero	net	emissions	over	some	period	of	time.	If,	

however,	 increased	 use	 of	 biomass	 energy	 results	 in	 a	 decline	 in	terrestrial	 carbon	 stocks,	 a	 net	 positive	 release	 of	 carbon	may	 occur.		See	 "Energy-Related	

Carbon	 Dioxide	 Emissions	 by	 End	 Use"	for	the	 emissions	from	 biogenic	 energy	 sources	 as	 an	 indication	 of	the	 potential	 net	 release of carbon dioxide in the 

absence of offsetting sequestration. Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. Data for 2010 and 2011 are model results and may 

differ slightly from official EIA data reports. 

Sources:		2010	and	2011	emissions	and	emission	factors:		U.S.	Energy	Information	Administration	(EIA),	Annual Energy Review 2011,	DOE/EIA-0384(2011)	

(Washington,	DC,	September	2012).		2010	emissions:		EIA,	Monthly Energy Review,	DOE/EIA-0035(2011/10)	(Washington,	DC,	October	2011).		2011	emissions	

and	 emission	factors:		EIA,	Monthly Energy Review,	 DOE/EIA-0035(2012/08)	 (Washington,	 DC,	August	 2012).		Projections:		EIA,	AEO2013	 National	Energy	

Modeling	System	run	REF2013.D102312A.

Table A18. Energy-related carbon dioxide emissions by sector and source

(million metric tons, unless otherwise noted)
156 U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013

Reference case

Table A19. Energy-related carbon dioxide emissions by end use

(million metric tons)

Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Outlook 2013 

Table A19. Energy-related carbon dioxide emissions by end use

(million metric tons)

Sector and end use 

Reference case Annual 

growth 

2011-2040

2010 2011 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 (percent) 

Residential 

 Space heating ........................................................ 285.69 274.74 255.95 247.75 241.43 234.50 224.88 -0.7%

 Space cooling ........................................................ 162.29 158.49 146.49 159.05 173.02 187.28 194.44 0.7%

 Water heating ........................................................ 159.50 156.30 155.23 157.27 156.47 154.26 153.31 -0.1%

 Refrigeration .......................................................... 66.67 63.92 58.33 59.80 62.44 65.23 66.18 0.1% 

			Cooking	.................................................................	 32.50	 31.97	 32.51 33.82 35.31 36.76 37.50 0.6% 

 Clothes dryers ........................................................ 37.70 36.32 36.43 38.02 39.80 41.64 42.10 0.5% 

			Freezers	................................................................	 14.58	 14.07	 12.72 12.69 12.67 12.72 12.53 -0.4% 

 Lighting .................................................................. 115.65 108.10 69.37 61.08 57.56 56.74 55.83 -2.3%

 Clothes washers1 ................................................... 5.81 5.54 4.19 3.82 3.62 3.70 3.76 -1.3% 

 Dishwashers1 ......................................................... 18.27 17.62 15.99 16.02 16.94 18.21 18.93 0.2% 

 Televisions and related equipment2 ....................... 56.31 54.02 53.97 57.27 60.97 64.92 66.79 0.7% 

 Computers and related equipment3 ....................... 28.12 26.74 20.20 18.98 18.84 18.91 18.42 -1.3% 

			Furnace	fans	and	boiler	circulation	pumps	............	 23.83	 22.95	 21.43	 21.52	 21.61	 21.64	 20.96	 -0.3%	

 Other uses ............................................................. 206.69 192.29 178.57 197.45 216.66 235.95 254.42 1.0% 

 Discrepancy4.......................................................... 13.90 -0.72 -0.66 -0.60 -0.55 -0.49 -0.45 -1.6% 

 Total residential ................................................ 1,227.53 1,162.33 1,060.73 1,083.95 1,116.78 1,151.98 1,169.60 0.0%

Commercial

 Space heating5 ...................................................... 129.14 125.16 120.43 116.90 113.92 110.05 104.21 -0.6% 

 Space cooling5 ....................................................... 100.98 99.43 83.32 85.01 86.89 89.61 89.71 -0.4% 

 Water heating5 ....................................................... 41.26 41.42 42.51 43.21 43.77 43.83 42.91 0.1% 

 Ventilation .............................................................. 86.72 84.34 82.87 85.39 87.72 89.24 87.81 0.1% 

			Cooking	.................................................................	 13.53	 13.60	 14.12 14.39 14.79 15.11 15.10 0.4% 

 Lighting .................................................................. 170.14 159.77 137.50 137.62 137.71 134.23 127.51 -0.8% 

 Refrigeration .......................................................... 68.65 64.87 54.38 54.23 55.14 56.54 56.50 -0.5% 

 Office equipment (PC) ........................................... 37.41 34.69 29.46 29.97 31.21 31.99 31.91 -0.3% 

 Office equipment (non-PC) .................................... 40.15 38.30 37.97 40.72 43.33 45.18 45.13 0.6% 

 Other uses6 ............................................................ 346.27 330.16 354.48 384.84 417.63 455.24 486.52 1.3% 

 Total commercial .............................................. 1,034.26 991.74 957.03 992.28 1,032.11 1,071.02 1,087.30 0.3%

Industrial7

 Manufacturing 

 Refining .............................................................. 261.87 256.26 245.90 249.79 254.75 261.90 270.14 0.2% 

						Food	products	.....................................................	 99.97	 99.13 103.10 107.71 110.82 113.57 115.35 0.5% 

 Paper products ................................................... 77.52 71.94 69.45 70.41 70.83 71.37 72.28 0.0% 

						Bulk	chemicals	....................................................	 259.35	 246.50 257.53 256.29 241.10 227.51 214.99 -0.5%

 Glass .................................................................. 19.21 18.88 22.35 24.03 24.70 24.88 25.48 1.0% 

 Cement manufacturing ....................................... 26.02 26.85 39.05 39.26 39.72 41.88 44.97 1.8% 

 Iron and steel ...................................................... 118.17 123.07 147.83 143.48 125.21 111.79 106.29 -0.5% 

 Aluminum ............................................................ 44.84 46.19 56.02 57.93 50.38 43.21 34.05 -1.0% 

						Fabricated	metal	products	..................................	 37.67 39.72 39.70 39.25 37.79 37.42 37.35 -0.2% 

 Machinery ........................................................... 23.70 25.44 28.77 29.63 29.82 30.32 31.47 0.7% 

 Computers and electronics ................................. 31.55 29.96 32.14 33.80 34.77 36.31 37.13 0.7% 

 Transportation equipment ................................... 47.09 50.85 61.43 65.04 68.29 72.17 73.71 1.3% 

 Electrical equipment ........................................... 8.02 7.98 8.86 9.07 9.17 9.73 10.47 0.9% 

 Wood products .................................................... 17.11 16.80 21.91 22.06 21.26 20.68 19.87 0.6% 

 Plastics ............................................................... 39.27 40.00 38.28 38.25 38.44 37.97 36.39 -0.3% 

 Balance of manufacturing ................................... 141.86 139.34 146.13 155.71 162.73 171.45 180.33 0.9% 

									Total	manufacturing	.........................................	 1,253.22	 1,238.92	 1,318.46	 1,341.71	 1,319.77	 1,312.15	 1,310.27 0.2% 

 Nonmanufacturing 

 Agriculture........................................................... 72.17 68.36 68.84 68.02 67.75 67.61 67.44 -0.0% 

 Construction ........................................................ 69.98 66.71 92.16 92.34 93.37 95.63 99.14 1.4% 

 Mining ................................................................. 55.72 55.52 57.67 55.57 53.64 53.07 51.75 -0.2% 

 Total nonmanufacturing ................................... 197.87 190.59 218.67 215.93 214.76 216.31 218.33 0.5% 

 Discrepancy4.......................................................... 45.06 42.57 68.69 73.07 73.73 78.98 86.73 2.5% 

 Total industrial .................................................. 1,496.14 1,472.08 1,605.81 1,630.71 1,608.26 1,607.44 1,615.33 0.3%
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013 157

Reference case

Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Outlook 2013 

Table A19. Energy-related carbon dioxide emissions by end use (continued)

(million metric tons)

Sector and end use 

Reference case Annual 

growth 

2011-2040

2010 2011 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 (percent) 

Transportation 

			Light-duty	vehicles	.................................................	 1,059.53	 1,036.67 929.21 870.47 824.70 804.78 804.29 -0.9% 

			Commercial	light	trucks8 ........................................ 38.08 37.35 37.93 36.83 35.97 36.60 38.70 0.1% 

 Bus transportation .................................................. 17.81 17.20 17.55 17.79 17.96 18.08 18.27 0.2% 

			Freight	trucks	.........................................................	 350.67	 352.73	 430.98	 442.74	 450.92	 471.42	 502.86	 1.2% 

			Rail,	passenger	......................................................	 5.63	 5.54	 5.74	 6.04	 6.33	 6.66	 6.81	 0.7%	

			Rail,	freight.............................................................	 33.43	 32.40	 35.40 37.59 38.96 39.97 40.76 0.8% 

			Shipping,	domestic	................................................	 15.77	 15.75 18.43 17.91 17.12 17.12 17.18 0.3% 

			Shipping,	international	...........................................	 66.38	 62.27 63.27 63.88 64.50 65.06 65.55 0.2% 

 Recreational boats ................................................. 16.94 16.30 17.08 17.69 18.28 18.78 19.13 0.6% 

 Air .......................................................................... 178.28 174.72 187.90 193.68 197.37 199.69 202.49 0.5% 

 Military use............................................................. 54.58 52.66 45.19 46.04 48.49 51.34 54.59 0.1% 

 Lubricants .............................................................. 5.24 4.95 4.50 4.56 4.62 4.69 4.78 -0.1% 

 Pipeline fuel ........................................................... 36.30 37.11 37.76 38.73 39.33 40.34 41.19 0.4% 

 Discrepancy4.......................................................... -2.97 -1.06 0.04 0.54 1.10 1.69 2.26 - - 

 Total transportation .......................................... 1,875.67 1,844.58 1,830.99 1,794.48 1,765.65 1,776.24 1,818.85 -0.0%

 

Biogenic energy combustion9

 Biomass ................................................................. 189.40 194.39 254.82 282.24 290.63 305.61 332.19 1.9% 

 Electric power sector .......................................... 18.52 17.81 60.15 74.35 71.05 72.79 82.99 5.4% 

 Other sectors ...................................................... 170.88 176.57 194.68 207.89 219.58 232.82 249.20 1.2%

 Biogenic waste ....................................................... 4.37 4.90 6.22 6.22 6.23 6.23 6.23 0.8% 

 Biofuels heat and coproducts ................................ 80.21 63.03 76.56 76.49 79.37 91.26 128.24 2.5% 

 Ethanol .................................................................. 74.92 74.85 95.83 92.45 88.48 85.70 86.13 0.5% 

 Biodiesel ................................................................ 2.42 8.63 11.55 11.68 11.66 11.66 11.68 1.0% 

 Liquids from biomass ............................................. 0.00 0.00 1.47 3.15 7.35 20.07 55.90 - - 

 Renewable diesel and gasoline ............................. 0.50 0.20 1.81 1.82 1.82 1.82 1.81 7.9% 

 Total ................................................................... 351.81 346.01 448.26 474.05 485.54 522.35 622.19 2.0%

1

Does not include water heating portion of load. 

2

Includes	televisions,	set-top	boxes,	and	video	game	consoles.	

3

Includes	desktop	and	laptop	computers,	monitors,	printers,	speakers,	networking	equipment,	and	uninterruptible	power	supplies.	

4

Represents differences between total emissions by end-use and total emissions by fuel as reported in Table A18. Emissions by fuel	may	reflect	benchmarking	

and other modeling adjustments to energy use and the associated emissions that are not assigned to specific end uses. 5

Includes emissions related to fuel consumption for district services. 

6

	Includes	(but	is	not	limited	to)	miscellaneous	uses	such	as	transformers,	medical	imaging	and	other	medical	equipment,	elevators,	escalators,	off-road	electric	

vehicles,	 laboratory	fume	 hoods,	 laundry	 equipment,	 coffee	 brewers,	 water	 services,	 pumps,	 emergency	 generators,	 combined	 heat	and power in commercial 

buildings,	 manufacturing	 performed	 in	 commercial	 buildings,	 and	 cooking	 (distillate),	 plus	 residual	 fuel	 oil,	 liquefied	 petroleum	 gases,	 coal,	 motor	 gasoline,	

kerosene,	and	marketed	renewable	fuels	(biomass).	 7

Includes	combined	heat	and	power	plants	that	have	a	non-regulatory	status,	and	small	on-site	generating	systems.

8

Commercial	trucks	8,501	to	10,000	pounds	gross	vehicle	weight	rating.	

9

By	 convention,	the	direct	emissions	from	biogenic	energy	 sources	are	excluded	from	energy-related	 carbon	dioxide	emissions.		The release of carbon from 

these	 sources	 is	assumed	to	be	balanced	by	the	uptake	of	 carbon	when	the	feedstock	 is	grown,	 resulting	 in	 zero	net	emissions	over	 some	period	of	time.		If,	

however,	increased	use	of	biomass	energy	results	in	a	decline	in	terrestrial	carbon	stocks,	a	net	positive	release	of	carbon	may	occur.		Accordingly,	the	emissions	

from biogenic energy sources are reported here as an indication of the potential net release of carbon dioxide in the absence of offsetting sequestration. 

- - = Not applicable. 

Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. Data for 2010 and 2011 are model results and may differ slightly from official EIA 

data reports. 

Sources:		2010	and	2011	emissions	and	emission	factors:		U.S.	Energy	Information	Administration	(EIA),	Annual Energy Review 2011,	DOE/EIA-0384(2011)	

(Washington,	DC,	September	2012).		2010	emissions:		EIA,	Monthly Energy Review,	DOE/EIA-0035(2011/10)	(Washington,	DC,	October	2011).		2011	emissions	

and	 emission	factors:		EIA,	Monthly Energy Review,	 DOE/EIA-0035(2012/08)	 (Washington,	 DC,	August	 2012).		Projections:		EIA,	AEO2013	 National	Energy	

Modeling	System	run	REF2013.D102312A.

Table A19. Energy-related carbon dioxide emissions by end use (continued)

(million metric tons)
158 U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013

Reference case

Table A20. Macroeconomic indicators

(billion 2005 chain-weighted dollars, unless otherwise noted)

Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Outlook 2013 

Table A20. Macroeconomic indicators

(billion	2005	chain-weighted	dollars,	unless	otherwise	noted)

Indicators 

Reference case Annual 

growth 

2011-2040

2010 2011 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 (percent) 

Real gross domestic product ................................ 13,063 13,299 16,859 18,985 21,355 24,095 27,277 2.5%

Components of real gross domestic product 

			Real	consumption	..................................................	 9,196 9,429 11,528 12,792 14,243 15,941	 17,917 2.2%

			Real	investment	.....................................................	 1,658 1,744 2,909 3,363 3,914 4,582	 5,409 4.0%

			Real	government	spending	....................................	 2,606 2,524 2,446 2,529 2,659 2,803	 2,980 0.6%

			Real	exports...........................................................	 1,666 1,777 3,016 4,026 5,214 6,658	 8,357 5.5%

			Real	imports...........................................................	 2,085 2,185 2,927 3,515 4,311 5,308	 6,518 3.8%

Energy intensity

 (thousand Btu per 2005 dollar of GDP) 

 Delivered energy .................................................... 5.47 5.34 4.39 3.92 3.48 3.13 2.85 -2.1%

 Total energy ........................................................... 7.53 7.35 5.99 5.39 4.81 4.33 3.95 -2.1%

Price indices 

 GDP chain-type price index (2005=1.000) ............. 1.110 1.134 1.307 1.429 1.564 1.713 1.871 1.7%

 Consumer price index (1982-4=1.00) 

 All-urban ............................................................. 2.18 2.25 2.66 2.94 3.27 3.63 4.04 2.0%

 Energy commodities and services ...................... 2.12 2.44 2.70 3.09 3.53 4.11 4.86 2.4%

 Wholesale price index (1982=1.00) 

 All commodities ................................................... 1.85 2.01 2.22 2.40 2.59 2.82 3.10 1.5%

						Fuel	and	power	...................................................	 1.86 2.16 2.48 2.91 3.38 4.02	 4.90 2.9%

 Metals and metal products .................................. 2.08 2.26 2.52 2.66 2.83 2.99 3.16 1.2%

 Industrial commodities excluding energy ............ 1.83 1.93 2.12 2.23 2.34 2.45 2.57 1.0%

Interest rates (percent, nominal) 

			Federal	funds	rate	.................................................. 0.17 0.10 4.04 4.09 3.97 3.84 3.74 - -

 10-year treasury note ............................................. 3.21 2.79 4.88 4.97 4.95 4.91 4.86 - -

 AA utility bond rate ................................................. 5.23 4.78 6.91 7.10 7.21 7.35 7.39 - -

Value of shipments (billion 2005 dollars) 

 Service sectors ...................................................... 20,771 21,168 26,492 29,715 32,624 35,511	 38,529 2.1%

			Total	industrial	.......................................................	 5,842 6,019 7,894 8,548 9,087 9,779	 10,616 2.0%

						Agriculture,	mining,	and	construction	..................	 1,585 1,582 2,211 2,295 2,375 2,494	 2,644 1.8%

						Manufacturing	.....................................................	 4,257 4,438 5,683 6,253 6,712 7,285	 7,972 2.0%

									Energy-intensive	..............................................	 1,592 1,615 1,893 1,993 2,027 2,077	 2,144 1.0%

									Non-energy-intensive	.......................................	 2,665 2,823 3,790 4,261 4,685 5,208	 5,828 2.5%

Total shipments ...................................................... 26,613 27,187 34,385 38,264 41,711 45,289 49,145 2.1%

Population and employment (millions) 

			Population,	with	armed	forces	overseas	................	 310.1 312.4 340.5 356.5 372.4 388.3	 404.4 0.9%

			Population,	aged	16	and	over	................................	 244.6 247.0 269.5 282.8 296.3 309.8	 322.9 0.9%

			Population,	over	age	65	.........................................	 40.6 41.6 55.4 64.5 72.7 78.1 81.8 2.4%

			Employment,	nonfarm	............................................	 129.8 131.3 149.2 153.7 160.8 166.7	 174.0 1.0%

			Employment,	manufacturing	..................................	 11.5 11.7 12.4 12.2 11.2 10.5 9.9 -0.6%

Key labor indicators 

 Labor force (millions) ............................................. 153.9 153.6 164.7 169.3 174.9 182.3 190.7 0.7%

 Nonfarm labor productivity (1992=1.00) ................. 1.09 1.10 1.25 1.39 1.54 1.70 1.88 1.9%

 Unemployment rate (percent) ................................ 9.62 8.95 5.49 5.27 5.32 5.33 5.24 - -

Key indicators for energy demand 

			Real	disposable	personal	income	..........................	 10,017 10,150 12,655 14,259 15,948 17,752	 19,785 2.3%

 Housing starts (millions) ........................................ 0.64 0.66 1.89 1.90 1.89 1.89 1.89 3.7%

 Commercial floorspace (billion square feet) ........... 81.1 81.7 89.1 93.9 98.1 103.0 108.8 1.0%

 Unit sales of light-duty vehicles (millions) .............. 11.55 12.73 16.85 17.16 17.74 18.20 19.21 1.4%

GDP = Gross domestic product. 

Btu = British thermal unit. 

- - = Not applicable. 

Sources:	 	 2010	 and	 2011:	 IHS	 Global	 Insight,	 Global	 Insight	 Industry	 and	 Employment	 models,	 August	 2012.	 	 Projections: U.S. Energy Information 

Administration,	AEO2013	National	Energy	Modeling	System	run	REF2013.D102312A.
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013 159

Reference case

Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Outlook 2013 

Table A21. International liquids supply and disposition summary

(million	barrels	per	day, unless otherwise noted)

Supply and disposition 

Reference case Annual 

growth 

2011-2040

2010 2011 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 (percent) 

Crude oil spot prices 

 (2011 dollars per barrel) 

 Brent ...................................................................... 81.31 111.26 105.57 117.36 130.47 145.41 162.68 1.3% 

 West Texas Intermediate ....................................... 81.08 94.86 103.57 115.36 128.47 143.41 160.68 1.8% 

 (nominal dollars per barrel) 

 Brent ...................................................................... 79.61 111.26 121.73 147.90 180.04 219.73 268.50 3.1% 

 West Texas Intermediate ....................................... 79.39 94.86 119.43 145.38 177.28 216.70 265.20 3.6% 

 

Liquids consumption1

 OECD 

 United States (50 states) .................................... 18.90 18.68 19.49 19.16 18.72 18.55 18.64 0.0% 

 United States territories ...................................... 0.25 0.28 0.32 0.34 0.36 0.36 0.37 1.0% 

 Canada ............................................................... 2.22 2.29 2.21 2.18 2.18 2.21 2.30 0.0% 

 Mexico and Chile ................................................ 2.40 2.41 2.66 2.83 3.05 3.26 3.47 1.3% 

 OECD Europe2 ................................................... 14.80 14.28 13.81 13.85 13.96 14.10 14.21 0.0% 

 Japan .................................................................. 4.37 4.46 4.41 4.33 4.25 4.15 3.94 -0.4% 

 South Korea ........................................................ 2.25 2.32 2.56 2.61 2.66 2.69 2.74 0.6% 

 Australia and New Zealand ................................. 1.11 1.12 1.19 1.19 1.22 1.25 1.30 0.5% 

 Total OECD ..................................................... 46.28 45.83 46.63 46.48 46.40 46.57 46.96 0.1%

 Non-OECD 

 Russia ................................................................. 2.98 3.13 3.53 3.65 3.83 3.95 3.95 0.8% 

 Other Europe and Eurasia3 ................................. 1.82 2.27 2.38 2.44 2.63 2.84 3.07 1.0% 

 China .................................................................. 9.33 9.85 13.29 14.71 15.58 16.64 17.59 2.0% 

 India .................................................................... 3.26 3.28 4.27 4.92 5.61 6.25 6.81 2.6% 

 Other Asia4 ......................................................... 7.14 6.87 7.88 8.53 9.30 10.19 11.25 1.7% 

 Middle East ......................................................... 6.74 7.51 8.40 8.57 8.92 9.35 9.78 0.9% 

 Africa .................................................................. 3.37 3.31 3.63 3.82 4.05 4.32 4.49 1.1% 

 Brazil ................................................................... 2.62 2.59 3.01 3.12 3.37 3.62 4.00 1.5% 

 Other Central and South America ....................... 3.21 3.37 3.42 3.52 3.71 3.92 4.02 0.6% 

 Total non-OECD ............................................. 40.46 42.18 49.82 53.27 57.00 61.07 64.97 1.5%

 

Total liquids consumption ..................................... 86.75 88.01 96.45 99.75 103.41 107.64 111.93 0.8%

 

Liquids production 

 OPEC5

 Middle East ...................................................... 23.77 25.40 26.65 27.91 29.88 32.63 35.09 1.1% 

 North Africa ...................................................... 3.76 2.39 3.27 3.27 3.48 3.77 3.96 1.8% 

 West Africa ...................................................... 4.45 4.31 5.33 5.47 5.61 5.75 5.89 1.1% 

 South America ................................................. 2.88 2.99 3.09 3.05 3.01 3.06 3.20 0.2% 

 Total OPEC .................................................. 34.85 35.08 38.34 39.69 41.98 45.20 48.13 1.1%

 Non-OPEC 

 OECD 

 United States (50 states) ................................. 9.44 10.11 12.74 12.10 11.42 11.52 11.67 0.5% 

 Canada ............................................................ 3.58 3.66 5.09 5.60 5.91 6.09 6.14 1.8% 

 Mexico and Chile ............................................. 3.01 2.99 1.96 1.84 1.98 2.04 2.12 -1.2% 

 OECD Europe2 ................................................ 4.58 4.19 3.38 3.08 2.84 2.93 3.36 -0.8% 

 Japan ............................................................... 0.18 0.18 0.17 0.18 0.18 0.19 0.19 0.2% 

 Australia and New Zealand .............................. 0.66 0.58 0.54 0.53 0.56 0.78 0.87 1.4% 

 Total OECD .................................................. 21.45 21.71 23.88 23.33 22.90 23.54 24.35 0.4%

 Non-OECD 

 Russia .............................................................. 10.14 10.23 10.75 10.95 11.43 11.94 11.48 0.4% 

 Other Europe and Eurasia3 .............................. 3.24 3.26 4.20 4.85 4.85 4.83 5.24 1.6% 

 China ............................................................... 4.34 4.34 4.59 5.02 5.50 5.54 5.42 0.8% 

 Other Asia4 ...................................................... 3.82 3.74 3.55 3.34 3.09 2.81 2.87 -0.9% 

 Middle East ...................................................... 1.57 1.43 1.23 1.22 1.09 0.91 0.89 -1.6% 

 Africa ............................................................... 2.68 2.68 3.08 3.14 3.10 2.95 3.18 0.6% 

 Brazil ................................................................ 2.52 2.53 4.35 5.63 6.96 7.43 7.61 3.9% 

 Other Central and South America .................... 2.08 2.17 2.40 2.51 2.46 2.43 2.69 0.7% 

 Total non-OECD .......................................... 30.39 30.39 34.15 36.65 38.47 38.84 39.37 0.9%

 

Total liquids production ......................................... 86.70 87.18 96.38 99.68 103.35 107.58 111.85 0.9%

OPEC	liquids	market	share	(percent)	.......................	 40.2	 40.2	 39.8	 39.8	 40.6	 42.0	 43.0	 -	-	

Table A21. International liquids supply and disposition summary

(million barrels per day, unless otherwise noted)
160 U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013

Reference case

Table A21. International liquids supply and disposition summary (continued)

(million barrels per day, unless otherwise noted)

Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Outlook 2013 

Table A21. International liquids supply and disposition summary (continued)

(million	barrels	per	day, unless otherwise noted)

Supply and disposition 

Reference case Annual 

growth 

2011-2040

2010 2011 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 (percent) 

Selected world liquids production subtotals: 

 Petroleum6 

 Crude oil and equivalents7 .................................. 74.11 74.08 80.28 82.51 85.26 87.59 90.90 0.7% 

 Tight oil ............................................................ 0.82 1.27 3.83 4.52 4.91 5.54 6.10 5.6% 

 Bitumen8 .......................................................... 1.65 1.74 3.00 3.52 3.95 4.21 4.26 3.1% 

 Natural gas plant liquids ..................................... 8.53 8.66 10.88 11.52 11.75 12.40 12.88 1.4% 

 Refinery processing gain9 ................................... 2.27 2.28 2.20 2.31 2.50 2.69 2.82 0.7% 

 Liquids from renewable sources10.......................... 1.31 1.33 2.08 2.29 2.49 2.67 2.93 2.8% 

 Liquids from coal11 ................................................. 0.17 0.18 0.40 0.68 0.95 1.17 1.19 6.7% 

 Liquids from natural gas12 ...................................... 0.07 0.12 0.39 0.45 0.48 0.51 0.55 5.4% 

			Liquids	from	kerogen13........................................... 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.6% 

 

Petroleum production6 

 OPEC5

 Middle East ...................................................... 23.76 25.34 26.44 27.66 29.64 32.38 34.84 1.1% 

 North Africa ...................................................... 3.76 2.39 3.27 3.27 3.48 3.77 3.96 1.8% 

 West Africa ...................................................... 4.45 4.31 5.30 5.44 5.58 5.72 5.86 1.1% 

 South America ................................................. 2.88 2.99 3.09 3.05 3.01 3.06 3.20 0.2% 

 Total OPEC .................................................. 34.85 35.03 38.10 39.42 41.71 44.93 47.86 1.1%

 Non-OPEC 

 OECD 

 United States (50 states) ................................. 8.66 9.25 11.64 10.95 10.21 10.20 10.08 0.3% 

 Canada ............................................................ 3.56 3.64 5.07 5.57 5.87 6.05 6.10 1.8% 

 Mexico and Chile ............................................. 3.01 2.99 1.96 1.84 1.98 2.04 2.12 -1.2% 

 OECD Europe2 ................................................ 4.36 3.98 3.16 2.85 2.60 2.67 3.09 -0.9% 

 Japan ............................................................... 0.17 0.17 0.16 0.17 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.1% 

 Australia and New Zealand .............................. 0.66 0.57 0.53 0.52 0.55 0.77 0.86 1.4% 

 Total OECD .................................................. 20.43 20.60 22.52 21.90 21.39 21.90 22.43 0.3%

 Non-OECD 

 Russia .............................................................. 10.14 10.23 10.75 10.94 11.42 11.94 11.47 0.4% 

 Other Europe and Eurasia3 .............................. 3.24 3.25 4.19 4.84 4.84 4.82 5.23 1.7% 

 China ............................................................... 4.30 4.30 4.44 4.65 4.83 4.64 4.52 0.2% 

 Other Asia4 ...................................................... 3.76 3.67 3.42 3.13 2.88 2.59 2.65 -1.1% 

 Middle East ...................................................... 1.57 1.43 1.23 1.22 1.09 0.91 0.89 -1.6% 

 Africa ............................................................... 2.46 2.47 2.75 2.80 2.74 2.60 2.82 0.5% 

 Brazil ................................................................ 2.19 2.25 3.57 4.70 5.92 6.30 6.48 3.7% 

 Other Central and South America .................... 2.01 2.09 2.33 2.43 2.38 2.34 2.60 0.8% 

 Total non-OECD .......................................... 29.68 29.69 32.69 34.73 36.11 36.15 36.66 0.7%

 

Total petroleum production ................................... 84.96 85.31 93.32 96.05 99.20 102.99 106.96 0.8%

OPEC	petroleum	market	share	(percent)	.................	 41.0	 41.1	 40.8	 41.0	 42.0	 43.6	 44.7	 -	-	

1

Includes	both	OPEC	and	non-OPEC	consumers	in	the	regional	breakdown.

2

OECD	Europe	=	Organization	for	Economic	Cooperation	and	Development	-	Austria,	Belgium,	Czech	Republic,	Denmark,	Estonia,	Finland,	France,	Germany,	

Greece,	Hungary,	Iceland,	Ireland,	Italy,	Luxembourg,	the	Netherlands,	Norway,	Poland,	Portugal,	Slovakia,	Slovenia,	Spain,	Sweden,	Switzerland,	Turkey,	and	

the United Kingdom. 3

Other	 Europe	 and	 Eurasia	 =	 Albania,	 Armenia,	 Azerbaijan,	 Belarus,	 Bosnia	 and	 Herzegovina,	 Bulgaria,	 Croatia,	 Georgia,	 Kazakhstan,	 Kyrgyzstan,	 Latvia,	

Lithuania,	Macedonia,	Malta,	Moldova,	Montenegro,	Romania,	Serbia,	Tajikistan,	Turkmenistan,	Ukraine,	and	Uzbekistan.	 4

Other	 Asia	 =	 Afghanistan,	 Bangladesh,	 Bhutan,	 Brunei,	 Cambodia	 (Kampuchea),	 Fiji,	 French	 Polynesia,	 Guam,	 Hong	 Kong,	 Indonesia,	 Kiribati,	 Laos,	

Malaysia,	Macau,	Maldives,	Mongolia,	Myanmar	 (Burma),	Nauru,	Nepal,	New	Caledonia,	Niue,	North	Korea,	Pakistan,	Papua	New	Guinea,	Philippines,	Samoa,	

Singapore,	Solomon	Islands,	Sri	Lanka,	Taiwan,	Thailand,	Tonga,	Vanuatu,	and	Vietnam.	 5

OPEC	=	Organization	of	Petroleum	Exporting	Countries	 -	Algeria,	Angola,	Ecuador,	Iran,	Iraq,	Kuwait,	Libya,	Nigeria,	Qatar,	Saudi	Arabia,	the	United	Arab	

Emirates,	and	Venezuela.	 6

Includes	production	of	crude	oil	 (including	lease	condensate,	tight	oil	 (shale	oil),	extra-heavy	oil,	and	bitumen	 (oil	 sands)),	natural	gas	plant	liquids,	 refinery	

gains,	and	other	hydrogen	and	hydrocarbons	for	refinery	feedstocks.	 7

Includes	crude	oil,	lease	condensate,	tight	oil	(shale	oil),	extra-heavy	oil,	and	bitumen	(oil	sands).	

8

Includes diluted and upgraded/synthetic bitumen (syncrude). 

9

The	volumetric	amount	by	which	total	output	is	greater	than	input	due	to	the	processing	of	crude	oil	into	products	which,	in	total,	have	a	lower	specific	gravity	

than the crude oil processed. 10Includes liquids produced from energy crops. 11Includes	liquids	converted	from	coal	via	the	Fischer-Tropsch	coal-to-liquids	process.	 12Includes	liquids	converted	from	natural	gas	via	the	Fischer-Tropsch	natural-gas-to-liquids	process.	 13Includes	liquids	produced	from	kerogen	(oil	shale,	not	to	be	confused	with	tight	oil	(shale	oil)).	

- - = Not applicable. 

Note: Ethanol is represented in motor gasoline equivalent barrels. Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. Data for 2010 and 

2011 are model results and may differ slightly from official EIA data reports. 

Sources: 2010 and 2011 crude oil spot prices: Thomson Reuters. 2010 quantities derived from: Energy Information Administration (EIA),	 International	

Energy Statistics database as of October 2012. 2011 quantities and projections:		EIA,	AEO2013	National	Energy	Modeling	System	 run	REF2013.D102312A	

and	EIA,	Generate	World	Oil	Balance	Model.
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013 161

1

Table B1. Total energy supply, disposition, and price summary

(quadrillion	Btu	per	year,	unless otherwise noted)

Supply, disposition, and prices 2011

Projections 

2020 2030 2040

Low

economic 

growth 

Reference

High 

economic 

growth 

Low

economic 

growth 

Reference

High 

economic 

growth 

Low

economic 

growth 

Reference

High 

economic 

growth 

Production 

 Crude oil and lease condensate .................... 12.16 15.95 15.95 15.99 12.93 13.47 13.79 12.69 13.12 13.37

 Natural gas plant liquids ................................ 2.88 4.10 4.14 4.20 3.80 3.85 3.92 3.86 3.89 3.95

 Dry natural gas .............................................. 23.51 26.58 27.19 27.80 29.33 30.44 31.92 32.46 33.87 35.32

 Coal1 ............................................................. 22.21 20.30 21.74 22.90 21.61 23.25 24.28 22.01 23.54 24.64

 Nuclear / uranium2 ........................................ 8.26 9.16 9.25 9.25 9.41 9.49 9.60 8.91 9.44 11.47

 Hydropower ................................................... 3.17 2.81 2.83 2.84 2.84 2.87 2.90 2.90 2.92 2.95

 Biomass3 ....................................................... 4.05 4.77 5.00 5.06 5.09 5.42 5.60 5.95 6.96 7.48

 Other renewable energy4 .............................. 1.58 2.19 2.22 2.51 2.36 2.50 3.14 2.81 3.84 5.86

 Other5 ............................................................ 1.20 0.80 0.83 0.86 0.82 0.88 0.93 0.82 0.89 0.96

 Total ........................................................ 79.02 86.65 89.16 91.40 88.18 92.18 96.08 92.41 98.46 105.99

Imports 

 Crude oil ........................................................ 19.46 13.71 15.02 16.14 14.38 16.33 18.27 14.17 16.89 19.70

 Liquid fuels and other petroleum6.................. 5.24 5.44 5.55 5.60 5.19 5.33 5.59 4.81 4.82 5.70

 Natural gas7 .................................................. 3.54 2.46 2.58 2.70 2.42 2.63 2.88 1.97 2.01 2.07

 Other imports8 ............................................... 0.43 0.11 0.11 0.16 0.09 0.13 0.34 0.70 0.84 1.49

 Total ........................................................ 28.66 21.72 23.26 24.60 22.07 24.41 27.08 21.64 24.55 28.95

Exports 

 Liquid fuels and other petroleum9.................. 6.08 5.41 5.37 5.28 5.33 5.25 5.33 5.72 5.71 5.86

 Natural gas10 ................................................. 1.52 2.69 2.67 2.65 5.38 4.71 4.63 6.50 5.56 5.38

 Coal ............................................................... 2.75 3.11 3.13 3.10 3.50 3.51 3.51 3.79 3.79 3.82

 Total ........................................................ 10.35 11.21 11.17 11.03 14.22 13.47 13.47 16.01 15.06 15.07

Discrepancy11 ................................................... -0.36 0.21 0.21 0.20 0.32 0.30 0.41 0.29 0.32 0.50

Consumption 

 Liquid fuels and other petroleum12 ................ 37.02 35.91 37.54 39.02 33.05 36.08 38.64 32.32 36.07 40.00

 Natural gas .................................................... 24.91 26.08 26.77 27.52 26.05 27.95 29.75 27.60 29.83 31.49

 Coal13 ............................................................ 19.66 17.17 18.59 19.74 18.11 19.70 20.88 18.73 20.35 21.97

 Nuclear / uranium2 ........................................ 8.26 9.16 9.25 9.25 9.41 9.49 9.60 8.91 9.44 11.47

 Hydropower ................................................... 3.17 2.81 2.83 2.84 2.84 2.87 2.90 2.90 2.92 2.95

 Biomass14...................................................... 2.74 3.33 3.53 3.57 3.64 3.94 4.09 4.18 4.91 5.33

 Other renewable energy4 .............................. 1.58 2.19 2.22 2.51 2.36 2.50 3.14 2.81 3.84 5.86

 Other15 .......................................................... 0.35 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.26 0.28 0.28 0.29 0.29 0.30

 Total ........................................................ 97.70 96.95 101.04 104.76 95.72 102.81 109.28 97.74 107.64 119.37

Prices (2011 dollars per unit) 

 Crude oil spot prices (dollars per barrel) 

 Brent ......................................................... 111.26 103.47 105.57 107.22 127.05 130.47 133.60 157.47 162.68 168.70

 West Texas Intermediate ......................... 94.86 101.51 103.57 105.19 125.11 128.47 131.55 155.53 160.68 166.63

 Natural gas at Henry Hub 

 (dollars per million Btu) ................................. 3.98 3.78 4.13 4.54 5.11 5.40 6.03 7.22 7.83 8.44

 Coal (dollars per ton) 

 at the minemouth16 ................................... 41.16 49.48 49.26 49.38 55.65 55.64 56.52 60.63 61.28 62.91

 Coal (dollars per million Btu) 

 at the minemouth16 ................................... 2.04 2.46 2.45 2.47 2.78 2.79 2.83 3.04 3.08 3.17

 Average end-use17 ................................... 2.57 2.73 2.77 2.82 3.03 3.10 3.17 3.34 3.42 3.53

	 	 	 Average	electricity	(cents	per	kilowatthour)	...		 9.9 9.5 9.4 9.5 9.6 9.7 10.0	 10.4	 10.8 11.2

Appendix B

Economic growth case comparisons

Table B1. Total energy supply, disposition, and price summary

(quadrillion Btu per year, unless otherwise noted)
162 U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013

Economic growth case comparisons

Table B1. Total energy supply, disposition, and price summary (continued)

(quadrillion Btu per year, unless otherwise noted)

Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Outlook 2013 

Table B1. Total energy supply and disposition summary (continued)

(quadrillion	Btu	per	year,	unless otherwise noted)

Supply, disposition, and prices 2011

Projections 

2020 2030 2040

Low

economic 

growth 

Reference

High 

economic 

growth 

Low

economic 

growth 

Reference

High 

economic 

growth 

Low

economic 

growth 

Reference

High 

economic 

growth 

Prices (nominal dollars per unit) 

 Crude oil spot prices (dollars per barrel) 

 Brent ......................................................... 111.26 128.51 121.73 120.63 223.19 180.04 173.06 395.38 268.50 249.71

 West Texas Intermediate ......................... 94.86 126.08 119.43 118.34 219.76 177.28 170.41 390.52 265.20 246.64

 Natural gas at Henry Hub 

 (dollars per million Btu) ................................. 3.98 4.69 4.77 5.11 8.98 7.45 7.82 18.12 12.92 12.49

 Coal (dollars per ton) 

 at the minemouth16 ................................... 41.16 61.45 56.81 55.55 97.75 76.78 73.22 152.24 101.14 93.11

 Coal (dollars per million Btu) 

 at the minemouth16 ................................... 2.04 3.06 2.83 2.77 4.88 3.85 3.67 7.64 5.08 4.70

 Average end-use17 ................................... 2.57 3.38 3.19 3.18 5.33 4.28 4.11 8.38 5.65 5.23

	 	 	 Average	electricity	(cents	per	kilowatthour)	...		 9.9 11.8 10.8 10.7 16.8 13.4 13.0	 26.1	 17.8 16.6

1

Includes waste coal. 

2

These values represent the energy obtained from uranium when it is used in light water reactors. The total energy content of uranium	is	much	larger,	but	alternative	

processes	are	required	to	take	advantage	of	it.	 3

Includes	grid-connected	electricity	from	wood	and	wood	waste;	biomass,	such	as	corn,	used	for	liquid	fuels	production;	and	non-electric energy demand from wood. Refer to 

Table A17 for details. 4

Includes grid-connected electricity from landfill gas; biogenic municipal waste; wind; photovoltaic and solar thermal sources; and	non-electric	energy	from	renewable	sources,	

such	as	active	and	passive	solar	systems.	 	 Excludes	electricity	imports	using	renewable	sources	and	nonmarketed	renewable	energy.	 	 See	Table	A17	for	selected	nonmarketed	

residential and commercial renewable energy data. 5

Includes	non-biogenic	municipal	waste,	liquid	hydrogen,	methanol,	and	some	domestic	inputs	to	refineries.	

6

Includes	imports	of	finished	petroleum	products,	unfinished	oils,	alcohols,	ethers,	blending	components,	and	renewable	fuels	such as ethanol. 7

Includes imports of liquefied natural gas that are later re-exported. 

8

Includes	coal,	coal	coke	(net),	and	electricity	(net).	 	 Excludes	imports	of	fuel	used	in	nuclear	power	plants.	

9

Includes	crude	oil,	petroleum	products,	ethanol,	and	biodiesel.	

10Includes re-exported liquefied natural gas. 11Balancing	item.	Includes	unaccounted	for	supply,	losses,	gains,	and	net	storage	withdrawals.	 12Includes	petroleum-derived	fuels	and	non-petroleum	derived	fuels,	such	as	ethanol	and	biodiesel,	and	coal-based	synthetic	liquids.	 	 Petroleum	coke,	which	is	a	solid,	is	

included. Also included are natural gas plant liquids and crude oil consumed as a fuel. Refer to Table A17 for detailed renewable liquid fuels consumption. 13Excludes coal converted to coal-based synthetic liquids and natural gas. 14Includes	grid-connected	electricity	from	wood	and	wood	waste,	non-electric	energy	from	wood,	and	biofuels	heat	and	coproducts	used	in	the	production	of	liquid	fuels,	but	

excludes the energy content of the liquid fuels. 15Includes	non-biogenic	municipal	waste,	liquid	hydrogen,	and	net	electricity	imports.	 16Includes	reported	prices	for	both	open	market	and	captive	mines.	 	 Prices	weighted	by	production,	which	differs	from	average	minemouth prices published in EIA data reports 

where it is weighted by reported sales. 17Prices	weighted	by	consumption;	weighted	average	excludes	residential	and	commercial	prices,	and	export	free-alongside-ship	(f.a.s.) prices. 

Btu = British thermal unit. 

Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. Data for 2011 are model results and may differ slightly from official EIA data reports. Sources:	 	 2011	natural	gas	supply	values:	U.S.	Energy	Information	Administration	(EIA),	Natural Gas Monthly,	DOE/EIA-0130(2012/07)	(Washington,	DC,	July	2012).	 	 2011	

natural gas spot price at Henry Hub based on daily data from Natural Gas Intelligence. 2011 coal minemouth and delivered coal prices:	 	 EIA,	Annual Coal Report 2011,

DOE/EIA-0584(2011)	(Washington,	DC,	November	2012).	 	 2011	petroleum	supply	values:	 	 EIA,	Petroleum Supply Annual 2011,	DOE/EIA-0340(2011)/1	(Washington,	DC,	

August 2012). 2011 crude oil spot prices: Thomson Reuters. Other 2011 coal values: Quarterly Coal Report, October-December 2011,	DOE/EIA-0121(2011/4Q)	

(Washington,	DC,	March	2012).	 	 Other	2011	values:	 	 EIA,	Annual Energy Review 2011,	DOE/EIA-0384(2011)	(Washington,	DC,	September	2012).	 	Projections:	 	 EIA,	

AEO2013	National	Energy	Modeling	System	runs	LOWMACRO.D110912A,	REF2013.D102312A,	and	HIGHMACRO.D110912A.	
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013 163

Economic growth case comparisons

Table B2. Energy consumption by sector and source

(quadrillion Btu per year, unless otherwise noted)

Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Outlook 2013 

Table B2. Energy consumption by sector and source

(quadrillion	Btu	per	year,	unless otherwise noted)

Sector and source 2011

Projections 

2020 2030 2040

Low

economic 

growth 

Reference

High 

economic 

growth 

Low

economic 

growth 

Reference

High 

economic 

growth 

Low

economic 

growth 

Reference

High 

economic 

growth 

Energy consumption

 Residential 

 Propane ..................................................... 0.53 0.52 0.52 0.53 0.50 0.52 0.55 0.49 0.52 0.57

 Kerosene ................................................... 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01

 Distillate fuel oil .......................................... 0.59 0.51 0.51 0.51 0.40 0.40 0.40 0.32 0.32 0.32

 Liquid fuels and other petroleum subtotal 1.14 1.04 1.05 1.05 0.91 0.93 0.96 0.82 0.86 0.91

 Natural gas ................................................ 4.83 4.58 4.62 4.69 4.27 4.46 4.67 3.93 4.23 4.57

 Coal ........................................................... 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00

 Renewable energy1 .................................... 0.45 0.43 0.44 0.45 0.42 0.45 0.47 0.42 0.45 0.50

 Electricity ................................................... 4.86 4.67 4.84 5.02 4.97 5.36 5.85 5.38 6.03 6.90

 Delivered energy .................................. 11.28 10.72 10.95 11.21 10.58 11.20 11.96 10.55 11.57 12.88

 Electricity related losses ............................ 10.20 9.30 9.66 10.02 9.80 10.45 11.30 10.27 11.50 13.30

 Total ...................................................... 21.48 20.02 20.62 21.24 20.38 21.65 23.26 20.82 23.08 26.17

 Commercial 

 Propane ..................................................... 0.14 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.17

 Motor gasoline2 .......................................... 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06

 Kerosene ................................................... 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01

 Distillate fuel oil .......................................... 0.42 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.30 0.30 0.30

 Residual fuel oil .......................................... 0.07 0.10 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.08 0.09 0.09

 Liquid fuels and other petroleum subtotal 0.69 0.66 0.65 0.65 0.64 0.64 0.64 0.62 0.63 0.63

 Natural gas ................................................ 3.23 3.42 3.40 3.37 3.51 3.50 3.49 3.65 3.68 3.72

 Coal ........................................................... 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05

 Renewable energy3 .................................... 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13

 Electricity ................................................... 4.50 4.68 4.72 4.73 5.16 5.22 5.27 5.61 5.72 5.82

 Delivered energy .................................. 8.60 8.93 8.95 8.93 9.48 9.54 9.57 10.06 10.21 10.35

 Electricity related losses ............................ 9.45 9.30 9.42 9.44 10.18 10.18 10.16 10.72 10.92 11.22

 Total ...................................................... 18.05 18.23 18.37 18.38 19.66 19.72 19.73 20.78 21.13 21.57

 Industrial4

 Liquefied petroleum gases ......................... 2.10 2.33 2.46 2.56 2.20 2.47 2.59 2.02 2.30 2.57

 Propylene ................................................... 0.40 0.52 0.56 0.58 0.46 0.52 0.55 0.41 0.46 0.51

 Motor gasoline2 .......................................... 0.27 0.29 0.32 0.35 0.28 0.32 0.35 0.28 0.32 0.36

 Distillate fuel oil .......................................... 1.21 1.10 1.22 1.37 1.02 1.18 1.35 1.06 1.22 1.41

 Residual fuel oil .......................................... 0.11 0.10 0.11 0.12 0.10 0.11 0.12 0.10 0.11 0.12

	 	 	 	 	 Petrochemical	feedstocks	..........................		 0.88 1.01 1.03 1.06 1.03 1.08 1.13	 1.02	 1.09 1.16

 Other petroleum5 ........................................ 3.61 3.26 3.54 3.86 3.04 3.46 3.87 3.16 3.65 4.13

 Liquid fuels and other petroleum subtotal 8.57 8.60 9.25 9.88 8.11 9.14 9.96 8.04 9.16 10.26

 Natural gas ................................................ 6.92 7.41 7.86 8.28 7.13 7.97 8.70 7.01 8.08 9.38

 Natural-gas-to-liquids heat and power ....... 0.00 0.07 0.13 0.13 0.11 0.21 0.21 0.16 0.33 0.36

 Lease and plant fuel6 ................................. 1.42 1.54 1.57 1.60 1.74 1.73 1.80 1.96 1.97 2.07

 Natural gas subtotal ................................ 8.34 9.02 9.56 10.01 8.98 9.91 10.72 9.13 10.38 11.81

 Metallurgical coal ....................................... 0.56 0.55 0.60 0.68 0.45 0.52 0.63 0.38 0.46 0.63

 Other industrial coal ................................... 1.04 0.96 1.00 1.04 0.94 1.00 1.06 0.97 1.05 1.14

 Coal-to-liquids heat and power .................. 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.11 0.00 0.09 0.17 0.10 0.15 0.29

	 	 	 	 	 Net	coal	coke	imports	................................		 0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.04 -0.04 -0.05	 -0.05	 -0.05 -0.06

 Coal subtotal ........................................... 1.62 1.50 1.58 1.81 1.35 1.57 1.81 1.41 1.61 2.00

 Biofuels heat and coproducts ..................... 0.67 0.80 0.82 0.84 0.83 0.85 0.87 1.14 1.37 1.40

 Renewable energy7 .................................... 1.51 1.58 1.72 1.80 1.70 1.97 2.11 1.94 2.28 2.53

 Electricity ................................................... 3.33 3.65 3.95 4.22 3.49 3.96 4.35 3.42 3.91 4.55

 Delivered energy .................................. 24.04 25.15 26.87 28.56 24.48 27.40 29.83 25.09 28.71 32.55

 Electricity related losses ............................ 6.99 7.25 7.89 8.43 6.89 7.72 8.40 6.53 7.45 8.77

 Total ...................................................... 31.03 32.40 34.76 36.99 31.37 35.11 38.22 31.62 36.16 41.32
164 U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013

Economic growth case comparisons

Table B2. Energy consumption by sector and source (continued)

(quadrillion Btu per year, unless otherwise noted)

Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Outlook 2013 

Table B2. Energy consumption by sector and source (continued)

(quadrillion	Btu	per	year,	unless otherwise noted)

Sector and source 2011

Projections 

2020 2030 2040

Low

economic 

growth 

Reference

High 

economic 

growth 

Low

economic 

growth 

Reference

High 

economic 

growth 

Low

economic 

growth 

Reference

High 

economic 

growth 

 Transportation 

 Propane ..................................................... 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.07 0.08 0.07 0.08 0.10

 E858 ........................................................... 0.05 0.09 0.08 0.08 0.28 0.16 0.15 0.26 0.17 0.22

 Motor gasoline2 .......................................... 16.31 14.49 14.88 15.14 12.01 13.06 13.70 11.10 12.64 13.61

 Jet fuel9 ...................................................... 3.01 3.08 3.11 3.14 3.22 3.28 3.34 3.32 3.42 3.53

 Distillate fuel oil10 ....................................... 5.91 6.72 7.28 7.83 6.64 7.61 8.60 6.90 7.90 9.51

 Residual fuel oil .......................................... 0.82 0.84 0.84 0.85 0.85 0.86 0.86 0.86 0.87 0.88

 Other petroleum11 ...................................... 0.17 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.17

 Liquid fuels and other petroleum subtotal 26.32 25.44 26.42 27.26 23.21 25.20 26.90 22.66 25.24 28.01

 Pipeline fuel natural gas ............................. 0.70 0.70 0.71 0.73 0.71 0.74 0.78 0.74 0.78 0.80

 Compressed / liquefied natural gas ............ 0.04 0.07 0.08 0.08 0.27 0.26 0.25 0.94 1.05 1.29

 Liquid hydrogen ......................................... 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01

 Electricity ................................................... 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.07

 Delivered energy .................................. 27.09 26.24 27.24 28.09 24.24 26.25 27.98 24.40 27.14 30.18

 Electricity related losses ............................ 0.05 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.08 0.09 0.09 0.12 0.13 0.14

 Total ...................................................... 27.13 26.29 27.30 28.15 24.32 26.33 28.07 24.52 27.27 30.31

 Delivered energy consumption for all 

 sectors 

 Liquefied petroleum gases ......................... 2.82 3.07 3.21 3.31 2.93 3.23 3.38 2.75 3.08 3.41

 Propylene ................................................... 0.40 0.52 0.56 0.58 0.46 0.52 0.55 0.41 0.46 0.51

 E858 ........................................................... 0.05 0.09 0.08 0.08 0.28 0.16 0.15 0.26 0.17 0.22

 Motor gasoline2 .......................................... 16.64 14.84 15.26 15.54 12.35 13.43 14.12 11.44 13.03 14.03

 Jet fuel9 ...................................................... 3.01 3.08 3.11 3.14 3.22 3.28 3.34 3.32 3.42 3.53

 Kerosene ................................................... 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.03

 Distillate fuel oil .......................................... 8.12 8.66 9.35 10.04 8.37 9.51 10.67 8.58 9.74 11.54

 Residual fuel oil .......................................... 1.01 1.04 1.05 1.06 1.03 1.05 1.07 1.04 1.07 1.09

	 	 	 	 	 Petrochemical	feedstocks	..........................		 0.88 1.01 1.03 1.06 1.03 1.08 1.13	 1.02	 1.09 1.16

 Other petroleum12 ...................................... 3.77 3.40 3.69 4.00 3.19 3.61 4.02 3.31 3.80 4.29

 Liquid fuels and other petroleum subtotal 36.72 35.74 37.37 38.84 32.87 35.90 38.45 32.14 35.88 39.80

 Natural gas ................................................ 15.03 15.48 15.95 16.42 15.19 16.19 17.11 15.52 17.05 18.95

 Natural-gas-to-liquids heat and power ....... 0.00 0.07 0.13 0.13 0.11 0.21 0.21 0.16 0.33 0.36

 Lease and plant fuel6 ................................. 1.42 1.54 1.57 1.60 1.74 1.73 1.80 1.96 1.97 2.07

 Pipeline natural gas ................................... 0.70 0.70 0.71 0.73 0.71 0.74 0.78 0.74 0.78 0.80

 Natural gas subtotal ................................ 17.15 17.79 18.36 18.88 17.75 18.87 19.90 18.39 20.13 22.19

 Metallurgical coal ....................................... 0.56 0.55 0.60 0.68 0.45 0.52 0.63 0.38 0.46 0.63

 Other coal .................................................. 1.10 1.02 1.06 1.10 1.00 1.06 1.11 1.03 1.11 1.20

 Coal-to-liquids heat and power .................. 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.11 0.00 0.09 0.17 0.10 0.15 0.29

	 	 	 	 	 Net	coal	coke	imports	................................		 0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.04 -0.04 -0.05	 -0.05	 -0.05 -0.06

 Coal subtotal ........................................... 1.67 1.56 1.64 1.87 1.41 1.63 1.87 1.47 1.67 2.06

 Biofuels heat and coproducts ..................... 0.67 0.80 0.82 0.84 0.83 0.85 0.87 1.14 1.37 1.40

 Renewable energy13 .................................. 2.08 2.13 2.28 2.37 2.25 2.54 2.71 2.48 2.86 3.16

 Liquid hydrogen ......................................... 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01

 Electricity ................................................... 12.71 13.03 13.54 14.01 13.66 14.59 15.52 14.48 15.72 17.34

 Delivered energy .................................. 71.01 71.04 74.01 76.80 68.77 74.38 79.33 70.10 77.63 85.95

 Electricity related losses ............................ 26.69 25.91 27.03 27.96 26.95 28.43 29.95 27.64 30.00 33.42

 Total ...................................................... 97.70 96.95 101.04 104.76 95.72 102.81 109.28 97.74 107.64 119.37

 Electric power14

 Distillate fuel oil .......................................... 0.06 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08

 Residual fuel oil .......................................... 0.23 0.09 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.11 0.10 0.11 0.12

 Liquid fuels and other petroleum subtotal 0.30 0.17 0.18 0.18 0.17 0.18 0.19 0.18 0.19 0.20

 Natural gas ................................................ 7.76 8.29 8.40 8.65 8.30 9.08 9.84 9.21 9.70 9.30

 Steam coal ................................................. 17.99 15.61 16.95 17.87 16.71 18.07 19.01 17.26 18.68 19.91

 Nuclear / uranium15 .................................... 8.26 9.16 9.25 9.25 9.41 9.49 9.60 8.91 9.44 11.47

 Renewable energy16 .................................. 4.74 5.39 5.49 5.72 5.76 5.93 6.55 6.27 7.44 9.59

 Electricity imports ....................................... 0.13 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.03 0.05 0.05 0.06 0.06 0.07

 Total17 ................................................... 39.40 38.94 40.57 41.97 40.61 43.02 45.47 42.12 45.73 50.76
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013 165

Economic growth case comparisons

Table B2. Energy consumption by sector and source (continued)

(quadrillion Btu per year, unless otherwise noted)

Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Outlook 2013 

Table B2. Energy consumption by sector and source (continued)

(quadrillion	Btu	per	year,	unless otherwise noted)

Sector and source 2011

Projections 

2020 2030 2040

Low

economic 

growth 

Reference

High 

economic 

growth 

Low

economic 

growth 

Reference

High 

economic 

growth 

Low

economic 

growth 

Reference

High 

economic 

growth 

 Total energy consumption 

 Liquefied petroleum gases ......................... 2.82 3.07 3.21 3.31 2.93 3.23 3.38 2.75 3.08 3.41

 Propylene ................................................... 0.40 0.52 0.56 0.58 0.46 0.52 0.55 0.41 0.46 0.51

 E858 ........................................................... 0.05 0.09 0.08 0.08 0.28 0.16 0.15 0.26 0.17 0.22

 Motor gasoline2 .......................................... 16.64 14.84 15.26 15.54 12.35 13.43 14.12 11.44 13.03 14.03

 Jet fuel9 ...................................................... 3.01 3.08 3.11 3.14 3.22 3.28 3.34 3.32 3.42 3.53

 Kerosene .................................................... 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.03

 Distillate fuel oil .......................................... 8.18 8.74 9.43 10.12 8.45 9.59 10.75 8.65 9.82 11.62

 Residual fuel oil .......................................... 1.24 1.13 1.15 1.16 1.13 1.15 1.17 1.15 1.17 1.21

	 	 	 	 	 Petrochemical	feedstocks	..........................	 0.88 1.01 1.03 1.06 1.03 1.08 1.13	 1.02	 1.09 1.16

 Other petroleum12 ....................................... 3.77 3.40 3.69 4.00 3.19 3.61 4.02 3.31 3.80 4.29

 Liquid fuels and other petroleum subtotal37.02 35.91 37.54 39.02 33.05 36.08 38.64 32.32 36.07 40.00

 Natural gas ................................................. 22.79 23.78 24.36 25.07 23.49 25.27 26.96 24.73 26.75 28.26

 Natural-gas-to-liquids heat and power ........ 0.00 0.07 0.13 0.13 0.11 0.21 0.21 0.16 0.33 0.36

 Lease and plant fuel6 .................................. 1.42 1.54 1.57 1.60 1.74 1.73 1.80 1.96 1.97 2.07

 Pipeline natural gas .................................... 0.70 0.70 0.71 0.73 0.71 0.74 0.78 0.74 0.78 0.80

 Natural gas subtotal ................................ 24.91 26.08 26.77 27.52 26.05 27.95 29.75 27.60 29.83 31.49

 Metallurgical coal ........................................ 0.56 0.55 0.60 0.68 0.45 0.52 0.63 0.38 0.46 0.63

 Other coal ................................................... 19.09 16.63 18.01 18.97 17.70 19.12 20.13 18.28 19.79 21.11

 Coal-to-liquids heat and power ................... 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.11 0.00 0.09 0.17 0.10 0.15 0.29

	 	 	 	 	 Net	coal	coke	imports	.................................	 0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.04 -0.04 -0.05	 -0.05	 -0.05 -0.06

 Coal subtotal ........................................... 19.66 17.17 18.59 19.74 18.11 19.70 20.88 18.73 20.35 21.97

 Nuclear / uranium15 .................................... 8.26 9.16 9.25 9.25 9.41 9.49 9.60 8.91 9.44 11.47

 Biofuels heat and coproducts ..................... 0.67 0.80 0.82 0.84 0.83 0.85 0.87 1.14 1.37 1.40

 Renewable energy18 ................................... 6.82 7.53 7.77 8.09 8.01 8.47 9.25 8.75 10.30 12.74

 Liquid hydrogen .......................................... 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01

 Electricity imports ....................................... 0.13 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.03 0.05 0.05 0.06 0.06 0.07

 Total ....................................................... 97.70 96.95 101.04 104.76 95.72 102.81 109.28 97.74 107.64 119.37

Energy use and related statistics 

 Delivered energy use ...................................... 71.01 71.04 74.01 76.80 68.77 74.38 79.33 70.10 77.63 85.95

 Total energy use ............................................. 97.70 96.95 101.04 104.76 95.72 102.81 109.28 97.74 107.64 119.37

 Ethanol consumed in motor gasoline and E85 1.17 1.31 1.34 1.37 1.22 1.24 1.29 1.13 1.21 1.32

 Population (millions) ........................................ 312.38 338.25 340.45 342.94 367.06 372.41 378.73 395.19 404.39 415.38

	 	 Gross	domestic	product	(billion	2005	dollars)	.	 13,299 15,717 16,859 17,754 18,703 21,355 23,232	 23,283	 27,277 30,552

	 	 Carbon	dioxide	emissions	(million	metric	tons) 5,471 5,192 5,455 5,685 5,095 5,523 5,882	 5,197	 5,691 6,163

1

Includes	wood	used	for	residential	heating.	See	Table	A4	and/or	Table	A17	for	estimates	of	nonmarketed	renewable	energy	consumption	for	geothermal	heat	pumps,	solar	

thermal	water	heating,	and	electricity	generation	from	wind	and	solar	photovoltaic	sources.	 2

Includes ethanol (blends of 15 percent or less) and ethers blended into gasoline. 

3

Excludes	ethanol.	 	 Includes	commercial	sector	consumption	of	wood	and	wood	waste,	landfill	gas,	municipal	waste,	and	other	biomass for combined heat and power. See 

Table	A5	and/or	Table	A17	for	estimates	of	nonmarketed	renewable	energy	consumption	for	solar	thermal	water	heating	and	electricity generation from wind and solar 

photovoltaic sources. 4

Includes	energy	for	combined	heat	and	power	plants	that	have	a	non-regulatory	status,	and	small	on-site	generating	systems.	

5

Includes	petroleum	coke,	asphalt,	road	oil,	lubricants,	still	gas,	and	miscellaneous	petroleum	products.	

6

Represents	natural	gas	used	in	well,	field,	and	lease	operations,	in	natural	gas	processing	plant	machinery,	and	for	liquefaction in export facilities. 7

Includes	consumption	of	energy	produced	from	hydroelectric,	wood	and	wood	waste,	municipal	waste,	and	other	biomass	sources.	 	 Excludes ethanol blends (15 percent or 

less) in motor gasoline. 8

E85 refers to a blend of 85 percent ethanol (renewable) and 15 percent motor gasoline (nonrenewable). To address cold starting	issues,	the	percentage	of	ethanol	varies	

seasonally. The annual average ethanol content of 74 percent is used for this forecast. 9

Includes	only	kerosene	type.	

10Diesel fuel for on- and off- road use. 11Includes aviation gasoline and lubricants. 12Includes	unfinished	oils,	natural	gasoline,	motor	gasoline	blending	components,	aviation	gasoline,	lubricants,	still	gas,	asphalt,	road	oil,	petroleum	coke,	and	miscellaneous	

petroleum products. 13Includes	electricity	generated	for	sale	to	the	grid	and	for	own	use	from	renewable	sources,	and	non-electric	energy	from	renewable sources. Excludes ethanol and 

nonmarketed	renewable	energy	consumption	for	geothermal	heat	pumps,	buildings	photovoltaic	systems,	and	solar	thermal	water	heaters. 14Includes consumption of energy by electricity-only and combined heat and power plants that have a regulatory status. 15These values represent the energy obtained from uranium when it is used in light water reactors. The total energy content of uranium	is	much	larger,	but	alternative	

processes	are	required	to	take	advantage	of	it.	 16Includes	conventional	hydroelectric,	geothermal,	wood	and	wood	waste,	biogenic	municipal	waste,	other	biomass,	wind,	photovoltaic,	and	solar	thermal	sources.	 	 Excludes	

net electricity imports. 17Includes non-biogenic municipal waste not included above. 18Includes	conventional	hydroelectric,	geothermal,	wood	and	wood	waste,	biogenic	municipal	waste,	other	biomass,	wind,	photovoltaic,	and	solar	thermal	sources.	 	 Excludes	

ethanol,	net	electricity	imports,	and	nonmarketed	renewable	energy	consumption	for	geothermal	heat	pumps,	buildings	photovoltaic	systems,	and	solar	thermal	water	heaters.	

Btu = British thermal unit. 

Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. Data for 2011 are model results and may differ slightly from official EIA data reports. 

Sources:	 	 2011	consumption	based	on:	 	 U.S.	Energy	Information	Administration	(EIA),	Annual Energy Review 2011,	DOE/EIA-0384(2011)	(Washington,	DC,	September	

2012).	 	 2011	population	and	gross	domestic	product:	IHS	Global	Insight	Industry	and	Employment	models,	August	2012.	 	 2011	carbon	dioxide	emissions:	 	 EIA,	Monthly Energy 

Review,	DOE/EIA-0035(2012/08)	(Washington,	DC,	August	2012).	 	Projections:	 	 EIA,	AEO2013	National	Energy	Modeling	System	runs	LOWMACRO.D110912A,	

REF2013.D102312A,	and	HIGHMACRO.D110912A.	
166 U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013

Economic growth case comparisons

Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Outlook 2013 

Table B3. Energy prices by sector and source

(2011 dollars per million Btu, unless otherwise noted)

Sector and source 2011

Projections 

2020 2030 2040

Low

economic 

growth 

Reference

High 

economic 

growth 

Low

economic 

growth 

Reference

High 

economic 

growth 

Low

economic 

growth 

Reference

High 

economic 

growth 

Residential 

 Propane ........................................................ 25.06 22.83 23.41 23.91 25.25 25.73 26.28 27.58 27.99 28.56

 Distillate fuel oil ............................................. 26.38 26.37 26.91 27.27 30.41 31.26 32.06 35.37 36.54 38.26

 Natural gas .................................................... 10.80 11.37 11.78 12.30 12.88 13.37 14.11 15.56 16.36 17.95

 Electricity ....................................................... 34.34 34.22 33.62 33.85 34.42 34.56 35.14 36.31 37.10 37.97

Commercial

 Propane ........................................................ 22.10 19.32 20.04 20.66 22.35 22.97 23.68 25.39 25.94 26.76

 Distillate fuel oil ............................................. 25.87 23.83 24.26 24.60 27.76 28.51 29.24 32.62 33.74 35.73

 Residual fuel oil ............................................. 19.17 14.53 14.82 15.02 18.08 18.77 19.01 22.92 23.41 24.06

 Natural gas .................................................... 8.84 9.09 9.47 9.94 10.28 10.70 11.33 12.53 13.21 14.14

 Electricity ....................................................... 29.98 28.71 28.57 29.21 27.98 28.65 29.76 30.39 31.75 33.42

Industrial1

 Propane ........................................................ 22.54 19.74 20.51 21.15 22.96 23.64 24.37 26.16 26.78 28.08

 Distillate fuel oil ............................................. 26.50 24.31 24.67 25.00 28.22 28.91 29.58 33.09 34.16 36.05

 Residual fuel oil ............................................. 18.86 16.89 17.19 17.41 20.52 21.09 21.34 25.37 25.78 26.36

 Natural gas2 .................................................. 4.89 5.19 5.53 5.98 6.26 6.56 7.13 8.37 8.88 9.43

 Metallurgical coal .......................................... 7.01 8.81 8.75 8.74 10.12 10.09 10.13 11.03 11.11 11.32

 Other industrial coal ...................................... 3.43 3.44 3.44 3.47 3.66 3.71 3.77 3.99 4.06 4.12

 Coal to liquids ............................................... - - - - - - 2.11 - - 2.55 2.60 2.90 2.95 2.90

 Electricity ....................................................... 19.98 18.57 18.72 19.41 18.99 19.73 20.86 21.45 22.74 24.31

Transportation 

 Propane ........................................................ 26.06 23.89 24.48 24.97 26.32 26.80 27.35 28.65 29.07 29.89

 E853 .............................................................. 25.30 28.53 29.64 30.12 27.32 26.94 28.58 31.85 30.58 33.52

 Motor gasoline4 ............................................. 28.70 27.57 27.84 28.24 30.16 30.73 31.28 35.10 36.18 37.96

 Jet fuel5 ......................................................... 22.49 21.10 21.50 21.81 25.48 26.03 26.70 30.65 31.07 32.93

 Diesel fuel (distillate fuel oil)6 ........................ 26.15 26.27 26.61 26.93 30.14 30.81 31.46 34.97 36.05 38.06

 Residual fuel oil ............................................. 17.83 14.64 14.91 15.13 17.92 18.34 18.74 21.98 22.45 23.37

 Natural gas7 .................................................. 16.14 16.27 16.87 17.45 17.96 18.90 19.62 19.76 21.20 22.26

 Electricity ....................................................... 32.77 29.28 29.60 30.42 30.50 31.53 32.82 33.31 35.07 36.84

Electric power8

 Distillate fuel oil ............................................. 23.30 21.90 22.45 22.82 25.93 26.80 27.58 30.87 32.03 34.00

 Residual fuel oil ............................................. 15.97 24.65 24.94 25.22 29.03 29.36 29.79 34.04 34.54 35.34

 Natural gas .................................................... 4.77 4.54 4.90 5.34 5.69 6.05 6.66 7.86 8.38 8.79

 Steam coal .................................................... 2.38 2.47 2.52 2.57 2.81 2.87 2.92 3.13 3.20 3.27

Average price to all users9

 Propane ........................................................ 17.13 12.84 13.69 14.51 17.27 18.14 19.37 22.77 23.79 25.04

 E853 .............................................................. 25.30 28.53 29.64 30.12 27.32 26.94 28.58 31.85 30.58 33.52

 Motor gasoline4 ............................................. 28.47 27.57 27.84 28.24 30.15 30.72 31.28 35.10 36.17 37.95

 Jet fuel5 ......................................................... 22.49 21.10 21.50 21.81 25.48 26.03 26.70 30.65 31.07 32.93

 Distillate fuel oil ............................................. 26.18 25.90 26.25 26.57 29.80 30.48 31.15 34.64 35.73 37.72

 Residual fuel oil ............................................. 17.65 15.66 15.97 16.22 19.10 19.59 20.02 23.41 23.95 24.89

 Natural gas .................................................... 6.68 6.74 7.07 7.50 7.99 8.27 8.82 10.36 10.94 11.77

 Metallurgical coal .......................................... 7.01 8.81 8.75 8.74 10.12 10.09 10.13 11.03 11.11 11.32

 Other coal ..................................................... 2.45 2.53 2.57 2.62 2.86 2.92 2.97 3.18 3.25 3.32

 Coal to liquids ............................................... - - - - - - 2.11 - - 2.55 2.60 2.90 2.95 2.90

 Electricity ....................................................... 29.03 27.85 27.50 27.92 28.03 28.41 29.31 30.49 31.58 32.86

Non-renewable energy expenditures by 

 sector (billion 2011 dollars) 

 Residential .................................................... 248.08 237.55 243.44 254.57 251.11 271.05 299.14 281.74 319.63 372.95

 Commercial ................................................... 179.97 179.72 181.68 186.63 196.60 203.80 213.44 234.84 249.60 267.32

 Industrial ....................................................... 225.18 233.96 259.03 287.38 253.14 294.99 337.55 296.17 353.70 430.16

 Transportation ............................................... 718.25 660.22 694.73 727.04 671.51 749.40 817.74 779.09 900.68 1,055.41

 Total non-renewable expenditures ............. 1,371.48 1,311.46 1,378.87 1,455.61 1,372.36 1,519.24 1,667.86 1,591.84 1,823.61 2,125.83

 Transportation renewable expenditures ..... 1.24 2.69 2.44 2.52 7.56 4.39 4.34 8.39 5.05 7.26

 Total expenditures .................................. 1,372.71 1,314.15 1,381.31 1,458.13 1,379.92 1,523.63 1,672.20 1,600.24 1,828.66 2,133.08

Table B3. Energy prices by sector and source

(2011 dollars per million Btu, unless otherwise noted)
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013 167

Economic growth case comparisons

Table B3. Energy prices by sector and source (continued)

(nominal dollars per million Btu, unless otherwise noted)

Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Outlook 2013 

Table B3. Energy prices by sector and source (continued)

(nominal	dollars	per	million	Btu,	unless	otherwise	noted)

Sector and source 2011

Projections 

2020 2030 2040

Low

economic 

growth 

Reference

High 

economic 

growth 

Low

economic 

growth 

Reference

High 

economic 

growth 

Low

economic 

growth 

Reference

High 

economic 

growth 

Residential 

 Propane ........................................................ 25.06 28.35 27.00 26.90 44.35 35.51 34.04 69.24 46.20 42.27

 Distillate fuel oil ............................................. 26.38 32.75 31.03 30.68 53.42 43.14 41.52 88.80 60.31 56.64

 Natural gas .................................................... 10.80 14.12 13.58 13.84 22.63 18.45 18.28 39.07 27.01 26.56

 Electricity ....................................................... 34.34 42.50 38.76 38.08 60.47 47.69 45.53 91.16 61.23 56.21

Commercial

 Propane ........................................................ 22.10 24.00 23.11 23.24 39.26 31.70 30.67 63.74 42.82 39.60

 Distillate fuel oil ............................................. 25.87 29.60 27.97 27.68 48.76 39.34 37.87 81.91 55.68 52.88

 Residual fuel oil ............................................. 19.17 18.05 17.09 16.90 31.77 25.90 24.63 57.55 38.64 35.61

 Natural gas .................................................... 8.84 11.29 10.92 11.18 18.06 14.76 14.68 31.47 21.81 20.92

 Electricity ....................................................... 29.98 35.65 32.94 32.86 49.15 39.54 38.56 76.30 52.40 49.46

Industrial1

 Propane ........................................................ 22.54 24.52 23.65 23.80 40.33 32.62 31.57 65.69 44.20 41.56

 Distillate fuel oil ............................................. 26.50 30.19 28.45 28.12 49.57 39.89 38.32 83.08 56.39 53.36

 Residual fuel oil ............................................. 18.86 20.98 19.82 19.59 36.05 29.10 27.65 63.69 42.55 39.02

 Natural gas2 .................................................. 4.89 6.44 6.38 6.72 11.00 9.05 9.24 21.03 14.66 13.95

 Metallurgical coal .......................................... 7.01 10.94 10.09 9.83 17.78 13.92 13.12 27.68 18.34 16.76

 Other industrial coal ...................................... 3.43 4.27 3.97 3.91 6.43 5.12 4.88 10.03 6.70 6.10

 Coal to liquids ............................................... - - - - - - 2.37 - - 3.52 3.36 7.28 4.87 4.30

 Electricity ....................................................... 19.98 23.07 21.59 21.83 33.37 27.22 27.03 53.86 37.54 35.99

Transportation 

 Propane ........................................................ 26.06 29.67 28.22 28.10 46.23 36.98 35.42 71.93 47.97 44.25

 E853 .............................................................. 25.30 35.44 34.18 33.89 47.99 37.18 37.02 79.96 50.46 49.62

 Motor gasoline4 ............................................. 28.70 34.25 32.10 31.77 52.98 42.41 40.52 88.14 59.72 56.19

 Jet fuel5 ......................................................... 22.49 26.21 24.79 24.54 44.75 35.92 34.59 76.97 51.27 48.75

 Diesel fuel (distillate fuel oil)6 ........................ 26.15 32.63 30.68 30.29 52.95 42.52 40.75 87.80 59.50 56.33

 Residual fuel oil ............................................. 17.83 18.18 17.19 17.02 31.48 25.31 24.28 55.18 37.06 34.59

 Natural gas7 .................................................. 16.14 20.21 19.46 19.64 31.55 26.08 25.42 49.62 34.98 32.95

 Electricity ....................................................... 32.77 36.36 34.13 34.22 53.57 43.51 42.52 83.64 57.88 54.52

Electric power8

 Distillate fuel oil ............................................. 23.30 27.20 25.89 25.67 45.54 36.98 35.73 77.51 52.87 50.33

 Residual fuel oil ............................................. 15.97 30.62 28.76 28.38 51.00 40.52 38.59 85.47 57.01 52.31

 Natural gas .................................................... 4.77 5.64 5.65 6.01 9.99 8.35 8.62 19.73 13.83 13.01

 Steam coal .................................................... 2.38 3.06 2.90 2.89 4.93 3.96 3.78 7.86 5.28 4.84
168 U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013

Economic growth case comparisons

Table B3. Energy prices by sector and source (continued)

(nominal dollars per million Btu, unless otherwise noted)

Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Outlook 2013 

Table B3. Energy prices by sector and source (continued)

(nominal	dollars	per	million	Btu,	unless	otherwise	noted)

Sector and source 2011

Projections 

2020 2030 2040

Low

economic 

growth 

Reference

High 

economic 

growth 

Low

economic 

growth 

Reference

High 

economic 

growth 

Low

economic 

growth 

Reference

High 

economic 

growth 

Average price to all users9

 Propane ........................................................ 17.13 15.94 15.78 16.32 30.33 25.03 25.09 57.18 39.26 37.06

 E853 .............................................................. 25.30 35.44 34.18 33.89 47.99 37.18 37.02 79.96 50.46 49.62

 Motor gasoline4 ............................................. 28.47 34.24 32.10 31.77 52.97 42.40 40.51 88.13 59.70 56.17

 Jet fuel5 ......................................................... 22.49 26.21 24.79 24.54 44.75 35.92 34.59 76.97 51.27 48.75

 Distillate fuel oil ............................................. 26.18 32.17 30.27 29.89 52.35 42.07 40.35 86.98 58.97 55.83

 Residual fuel oil ............................................. 17.65 19.45 18.41 18.25 33.55 27.03 25.93 58.78 39.53 36.84

 Natural gas .................................................... 6.68 8.37 8.16 8.44 14.04 11.41 11.42 26.01 18.06 17.42

 Metallurgical coal .......................................... 7.01 10.94 10.09 9.83 17.78 13.92 13.12 27.68 18.34 16.76

 Other coal ..................................................... 2.45 3.14 2.97 2.95 5.02 4.03 3.84 8.00 5.37 4.92

 Coal to liquids ............................................... - - - - - - 2.37 - - 3.52 3.36 7.28 4.87 4.30

 Electricity ....................................................... 29.03 34.59 31.71 31.41 49.24 39.20 37.96 76.55 52.12 48.63

Non-renewable energy expenditures by 

 sector (billion nominal dollars) 

 Residential .................................................... 248.08 295.03 280.71 286.39 441.11 374.04 387.49 707.41 527.54 552.03

 Commercial ................................................... 179.97 223.21 209.48 209.95 345.35 281.23 276.49 589.66 411.95 395.67

 Industrial ....................................................... 225.18 290.58 298.68 323.30 444.67 407.07 437.25 743.64 583.76 636.70

 Transportation ............................................... 718.25 819.97 801.07 817.92 1,179.60 1,034.13 1,059.28	 1,956.18	 1,486.52 1,562.18

	 	 	 	 	 Total	non-renewable	expenditures	.............		 1,371.48 1,628.79 1,589.94 1,637.57 2,410.74 2,096.47 2,160.51	 3,996.88	 3,009.77 3,146.58

 Transportation renewable expenditures ..... 1.24 3.34 2.81 2.83 13.28 6.06 5.62 21.08 8.33 10.74

 Total expenditures .................................. 1,372.71 1,632.13 1,592.75 1,640.40 2,424.02 2,102.52 2,166.12 4,017.96 3,018.11 3,157.32

1

Includes	energy	for	combined	heat	and	power	plants	that	have	a	non-regulatory	status,	and	small	on-site	generating	systems.	

2

Excludes use for lease and plant fuel. 

3

E85 refers to a blend of 85 percent ethanol (renewable) and 15 percent motor gasoline (nonrenewable). To address cold starting	issues,	the	percentage	of	ethanol	varies	

seasonally. The annual average ethanol content of 74 percent is used for this forecast. 4

Sales	weighted-average	price	for	all	grades.	 	 Includes	Federal,	State	and	local	taxes.	

5

Kerosene-type	jet	fuel.	 	 Includes	Federal	and	State	taxes	while	excluding	county	and	local	taxes.	

6

Diesel	fuel	for	on-road	use.	 	 Includes	Federal	and	State	taxes	while	excluding	county	and	local	taxes.	

7

Natural gas used as a vehicle fuel. Includes estimated motor vehicle fuel taxes and estimated dispensing costs or charges. 

8

Includes electricity-only and combined heat and power plants that have a regulatory status. 

9

Weighted averages of end-use fuel prices are derived from the prices shown in each sector and the corresponding sectoral consumption. 

Btu = British thermal unit. 

- - = Not applicable. 

Note: Data for 2011 are model results and may differ slightly from official EIA data reports. 

Sources:	 	 2011	prices	for	motor	gasoline,	distillate	fuel	oil,	and	jet	fuel	are	based	on	prices	in	the	U.S.	Energy	Information	Administration	(EIA),	(2012/08)	(Washington,	DC,	

August	2012).	 	 2011	residential,	commercial,	and	industrial	natural	gas	delivered	prices:	 	 EIA,	Natural Gas Monthly,	DOE/EIA-0130(2012/07)	(Washington,	DC,	July	2012).	 	

2011 transportation sector natural gas delivered prices are model results. 2011 electric power sector distillate and residual fuel	oil	prices:	EIA,	Monthly Energy Review,

DOE/EIA-0035(2012/09)	(Washington,	DC,	September	2012).	 	 2011	electric	power	sector	natural	gas	prices:	EIA,	Electric Power Monthly,	DOE/EIA-0226,	April	2011	and	April	

2012,	Table	4.2,	and	EIA,	State Energy Data Report 2010,	DOE/EIA-0214(2010)	(Washington,	DC,	June	2012).	 	 2011	coal	prices	based	on:	 	 EIA,	(2011/4Q)	(Washington,	DC,	

March	2012)	and	EIA,	AEO2013	National	Energy	Modeling	System	run	REF2013.D102312A.	 	 2011	electricity	prices:	 	 EIA,	Annual Energy Review 2011,	DOE/EIA-0384(2011)	

(Washington,	DC,	September	2012).	 	 2011	E85	prices	derived	from	monthly	prices	in	the	Clean	Cities	Alternative	Fuel	Price	Report. Projections:	 	 EIA,	AEO2013	National	

Energy	Modeling	System	runs	LOWMACRO.D110912A,	REF2013.D102312A,	and	HIGHMACRO.D110912A.	
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013 169

Economic growth case comparisons

Table B4. Macroeconomic indicators

(billion 2005 chain-weighted dollars, unless otherwise noted)

Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Outlook 2013 

Table B4. Macroeconomic indicators

(billion	2005	chain-weighted	dollars,	unless	otherwise	noted)

Indicators 2011

Projections 

2020 2030 2040

Low

economic 

growth 

Reference

High 

economic 

growth 

Low

economic 

growth 

Reference

High 

economic 

growth 

Low

economic 

growth 

Reference

High 

economic 

growth 

Real gross domestic product ........................... 13,299 15,717 16,859 17,754 18,703 21,355 23,232 23,283 27,277 30,552

Components of real gross domestic product 

	 	 	 Real	consumption	...........................................		 9,429 10,836 11,528 12,113 12,482 14,243 15,541	 14,836	 17,917 20,161

	 	 	 Real	investment	..............................................		 1,744 2,530 2,909 3,335 3,363 3,914 4,504	 4,776	 5,409 6,269

	 	 	 Real	government	spending	.............................		 2,524 2,358 2,446 2,512 2,442 2,659 2,777	 2,620	 2,980 3,172

	 	 	 Real	exports	....................................................		 1,777 2,896 3,016 3,102 4,789 5,214 5,652	 7,650	 8,357 9,553

	 	 	 Real	imports	....................................................		 2,185 2,817 2,927 3,163 4,089 4,311 4,806	 5,847	 6,518 7,531

Energy intensity

(thousand Btu per 2005 dollar of GDP) 

 Delivered energy ............................................. 5.34 4.52 4.39 4.33 3.68 3.48 3.41 3.01 2.85 2.81

 Total energy .................................................... 7.35 6.17 5.99 5.90 5.12 4.81 4.70 4.20 3.95 3.91

Price indices 

 GDP chain-type price index (2005=1.000) ...... 1.134 1.408 1.307 1.275 1.991 1.564 1.469 2.847 1.871 1.678

 Consumer price index (1982-4=1) 

 All-urban ..................................................... 2.25 2.86 2.66 2.59 4.13 3.27 3.07 6.09 4.04 3.64

 Energy commodities and services .............. 2.44 2.90 2.70 2.67 4.42 3.53 3.39 7.18 4.86 4.57

 Wholesale price index (1982=1.00) 

 All commodities .......................................... 2.01 2.39 2.22 2.21 3.31 2.59 2.48 4.73 3.10 2.88

	 	 	 	 	 	 Fuel	and	power	..........................................		 2.16 2.63 2.48 2.50 4.18 3.38 3.30	 7.17	 4.90 4.65

 Metals and metal products ......................... 2.26 2.68 2.52 2.62 3.53 2.83 2.83 4.63 3.16 3.22

 Industrial commodities excluding energy .... 1.93 2.30 2.12 2.11 3.02 2.34 2.22 4.01 2.57 2.37

Interest rates (percent, nominal) 

	 	 	 Federal	funds	rate	...........................................		 0.10 5.52 4.04 3.50 6.97 3.97 3.29	 7.11	 3.74 3.04

 10-year treasury note ...................................... 2.79 7.36 4.88 4.09 7.69 4.95 4.17 7.72 4.86 4.06

 AA utility bond rate .......................................... 4.78 9.84 6.91 5.57 10.47 7.21 5.77 10.90 7.39 5.53

Value of shipments (billion 2005 dollars) 

	 	 	 Service	sectors	...............................................		 21,168 24,814 26,492 28,005 29,028 32,624 35,626	 33,484	 38,529 43,296

 Total industrial .................................................		 6,019 7,136 7,894 8,633 7,721 9,087 10,325	 8,909	 10,616 12,730

	 	 	 	 	 	 Agriculture,	mining,	and	construction	.........		 1,582 1,937 2,211 2,535 1,986 2,375 2,775	 2,239	 2,644 3,099

	 	 	 	 	 	 Manufacturing	............................................		 4,438 5,199 5,683 6,099 5,736 6,712 7,550	 6,670	 7,972 9,631

	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 Energy-intensive	....................................		 1,615 1,783 1,893 1,992 1,817 2,027 2,182	 1,891	 2,144 2,394

	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 Non-energy-intensive	............................		 2,823 3,416 3,790 4,106 3,919 4,685 5,368	 4,779	 5,828 7,237

Total shipments ................................................. 27,187 31,950 34,385 36,639 36,749 41,711 45,951 42,393 49,145 56,026

Population and employment (millions) 

 Population with armed forces overseas .......... 312.4 338.2 340.5 342.9 367.1 372.4 378.7 395.2 404.4 415.4

	 	 	 Population,	aged	16	and	over	.........................		 247.0 268.0 269.5 271.3 292.3 296.3 300.9 316.0 322.9 331.0

	 	 	 Population,	over	age	65	..................................		 41.6 55.0 55.4 55.5 72.1 72.7 73.0 81.1 81.8 82.6

	 	 	 Employment,	nonfarm	.....................................		 131.3 146.6 149.2 153.3 156.5 160.8 165.7 167.1 174.0 182.5

	 	 	 Employment,	manufacturing	...........................		 11.7 11.8 12.4 13.0 10.4 11.2 12.2	 9.3	 9.9 11.3

Key labor indicators 

 Labor force (millions) ...................................... 153.6 163.8 164.7 166.1 172.5 174.9 178.1 186.2 190.7 196.1

 Non-farm labor productivity (1992=1.00) ......... 1.10 1.20 1.25 1.28 1.40 1.54 1.60 1.66 1.88 1.99

 Unemployment rate (percent) ......................... 8.95 5.93 5.49 5.02 5.47 5.32 5.08 5.42 5.24 4.96

Key indicators for energy demand 

	 	 	 Real	disposable	personal	income	...................		 10,150 12,097 12,655 13,209 14,637 15,948 17,001	 17,912	 19,785 21,416

 Housing starts (millions) .................................. 0.66 1.38 1.89 2.59 1.25 1.89 2.74 1.25 1.89 2.89

 Commercial floorspace (billion square feet) .... 81.7 88.5 89.1 89.7 96.3 98.1 100.0 105.4 108.8 112.3

 Unit sales of light-duty vehicles (millions)........ 12.73 15.39 16.85 18.12 15.08 17.74 19.13 15.40 19.21 21.87

GDP = Gross domestic product. 

Btu = British thermal unit. 

Sources:	 	 2011:	IHS	Global	Insight,	Global	Insight	Industry	and	Employment	models,	August	2012.	 	Projections:	 	 U.S.	Energy	Information	Administration,	AEO2013	

National	Energy	Modeling	System	runs	LOWMACRO.D110912A,	REF2013.D102312A,	and	HIGHMACRO.D110912A.
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U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013 171

1

Table C1. Total energy supply, disposition, and price summary

(quadrillion	Btu	per	year,	unless otherwise noted)

Supply, disposition, and prices 2011

Projections 

2020 2030 2040

Low oil 

price Reference High oil price 

Low oil 

price Reference High oil price 

Low oil 

price Reference High oil price 

Production 

 Crude oil and lease condensate .................... 12.16 15.22 15.95 16.61 11.89 13.47 15.07 9.99 13.12 14.63

 Natural gas plant liquids ................................ 2.88 3.98 4.14 4.24 3.79 3.85 3.99 3.69 3.89 4.08

 Dry natural gas .............................................. 23.51 26.44 27.19 27.61 28.09 30.44 31.87 30.91 33.87 36.61

 Coal1 ............................................................. 22.21 22.13 21.74 21.43 23.15 23.25 22.76 24.28 23.54 23.34

 Nuclear / uranium2 ........................................ 8.26 9.25 9.25 9.25 9.49 9.49 9.53 9.14 9.44 10.63

 Hydropower ................................................... 3.17 2.83 2.83 2.83 2.86 2.87 2.88 2.91 2.92 2.92

 Biomass3 ....................................................... 4.05 4.85 5.00 4.95 5.27 5.42 5.48 6.57 6.96 7.66

 Other renewable energy4 .............................. 1.58 2.24 2.22 2.21 2.47 2.50 2.54 3.59 3.84 4.16

 Other5 ............................................................ 1.20 0.83 0.83 0.84 0.95 0.88 0.85 0.97 0.89 0.80

 Total ........................................................ 79.02 87.78 89.16 89.97 87.96 92.18 94.96 92.06 98.46 104.83

Imports 

 Crude oil ........................................................ 19.46 16.52 15.02 13.35 19.35 16.33 13.28 22.55 16.89 13.07

 Liquid fuels and other petroleum6.................. 5.24 6.24 5.55 5.02 6.31 5.33 4.31 6.73 4.82 3.75

 Natural gas7 .................................................. 3.54 2.98 2.58 2.42 3.44 2.63 2.49 2.90 2.01 1.88

 Other imports8 ............................................... 0.43 0.11 0.11 0.36 0.03 0.13 0.89 0.24 0.84 1.21

 Total ........................................................ 28.66 25.85 23.26 21.16 29.13 24.41 20.96 32.42 24.55 19.91

Exports 

 Liquid fuels and other petroleum9.................. 6.08 5.40 5.37 5.30 5.41 5.25 5.14 5.87 5.71 5.57

 Natural gas10 ................................................. 1.52 2.67 2.67 2.66 3.53 4.71 5.27 4.63 5.56 7.82

 Coal ............................................................... 2.75 3.17 3.13 3.07 3.55 3.51 3.45 4.08 3.79 3.41

 Total ........................................................ 10.35 11.24 11.17 11.03 12.48 13.47 13.86 14.59 15.06 16.80

Discrepancy11 ................................................... -0.36 0.24 0.21 0.22 0.44 0.30 0.20 0.58 0.32 0.21

Consumption 

 Liquid fuels and other petroleum12 ................ 37.02 38.62 37.54 36.21 37.84 36.08 34.04 39.34 36.07 33.77

 Natural gas .................................................... 24.91 26.56 26.77 27.04 27.80 27.95 28.66 28.97 29.83 30.01

 Coal13 ............................................................ 19.66 18.93 18.59 18.50 19.54 19.70 19.94 20.32 20.35 20.71

 Nuclear / uranium2 ........................................ 8.26 9.25 9.25 9.25 9.49 9.49 9.53 9.14 9.44 10.63

 Hydropower ................................................... 3.17 2.83 2.83 2.83 2.86 2.87 2.88 2.91 2.92 2.92

 Biomass14...................................................... 2.74 3.42 3.53 3.53 3.90 3.94 3.99 4.74 4.91 5.21

 Other renewable energy4 .............................. 1.58 2.24 2.22 2.21 2.47 2.50 2.54 3.59 3.84 4.16

 Other15 .......................................................... 0.35 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.26 0.28 0.28 0.29 0.29 0.31

 Total ........................................................ 97.70 102.16 101.04 99.88 104.17 102.81 101.86 109.32 107.64 107.73

Prices (2011 dollars per unit) 

 Crude oil spot prices (dollars per barrel) 

 Brent ......................................................... 111.26 68.90 105.57 155.28 71.90 130.47 191.90 74.90 162.68 237.16

 West Texas Intermediate ......................... 94.86 66.90 103.57 153.28 69.90 128.47 189.90 72.90 160.68 235.16

 Natural gas at Henry Hub 

 (dollars per million Btu) ................................. 3.98 4.08 4.13 4.33 5.15 5.40 6.03 7.06 7.83 8.96

 Coal (dollars per ton) 

 at the minemouth16 ................................... 41.16 47.84 49.26 50.56 53.51 55.64 57.33 58.08 61.28 64.50

 Coal (dollars per million Btu) 

 at the minemouth16 ................................... 2.04 2.39 2.45 2.52 2.68 2.79 2.87 2.92 3.08 3.22

 Average end-use17 ................................... 2.57 2.66 2.77 2.89 2.93 3.10 3.24 3.19 3.42 3.61

	 	 	 Average	electricity	(cents	per	kilowatthour)	...		 9.9 9.3 9.4 9.5 9.5 9.7 10.0	 10.3	 10.8 11.3

Appendix C

Price case comparisons

Table C1. Total energy supply, disposition, and price summary

(quadrillion Btu per year, unless otherwise noted)
172 U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013

Price case comparisons

Table C1. Total energy supply, disposition, and price summary (continued)

(quadrillion Btu per year, unless otherwise noted)

Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Outlook 2013 

Table C1. Total energy supply and disposition summary (continued)

(quadrillion	Btu	per	year,	unless otherwise noted)

Supply, disposition, and prices 2011

Projections 

2020 2030 2040

Low oil 

price Reference High oil price 

Low oil 

price Reference High oil price 

Low oil 

price Reference High oil price 

Prices (nominal dollars per unit) 

 Crude oil spot prices (dollars per barrel) 

 Brent ......................................................... 111.26 79.61 121.73 177.97 100.62 180.04 260.76 127.14 268.50 382.50

 West Texas Intermediate ......................... 94.86 77.30 119.43 175.68 97.82 177.28 258.04 123.74 265.20 379.28

 Natural gas at Henry Hub 

 (dollars per million Btu) ................................. 3.98 4.71 4.77 4.97 7.21 7.45 8.20 11.98 12.92 14.46

 Coal (dollars per ton) 

 at the minemouth16 ................................... 41.16 55.27 56.81 57.95 74.88 76.78 77.90 98.60 101.14 104.03

 Coal (dollars per million Btu) 

 at the minemouth16 ................................... 2.04 2.76 2.83 2.88 3.76 3.85 3.90 4.96 5.08 5.20

 Average end-use17 ................................... 2.57 3.08 3.19 3.31 4.10 4.28 4.41 5.42 5.65 5.83

	 	 	 Average	electricity	(cents	per	kilowatthour)	...		 9.9 10.7 10.8 10.9 13.3 13.4 13.6	 17.5	 17.8 18.3

1

Includes waste coal. 

2

These values represent the energy obtained from uranium when it is used in light water reactors. The total energy content of uranium	is	much	larger,	but	alternative	

processes	are	required	to	take	advantage	of	it.	 3

Includes	grid-connected	electricity	from	wood	and	wood	waste;	biomass,	such	as	corn,	used	for	liquid	fuels	production;	and	non-electric energy demand from wood. Refer to Table A17 for details. 4

Includes grid-connected electricity from landfill gas; biogenic municipal waste; wind; photovoltaic and solar thermal sources; and	non-electric	energy	from	renewable	sources,	

such	as	active	and	passive	solar	systems.	 	 Excludes	electricity	imports	using	renewable	sources	and	nonmarketed	renewable	energy.	 	 See	Table	A17	for	selected	nonmarketed	

residential and commercial renewable energy data. 5

Includes	non-biogenic	municipal	waste,	liquid	hydrogen,	methanol,	and	some	domestic	inputs	to	refineries.	

6

Includes	imports	of	finished	petroleum	products,	unfinished	oils,	alcohols,	ethers,	blending	components,	and	renewable	fuels	such as ethanol. 7

Includes imports of liquefied natural gas that are later re-exported. 

8

Includes	coal,	coal	coke	(net),	and	electricity	(net).	 	 Excludes	imports	of	fuel	used	in	nuclear	power	plants.	

9

Includes	crude	oil,	petroleum	products,	ethanol,	and	biodiesel.	

10Includes re-exported liquefied natural gas. 11Balancing	item.	Includes	unaccounted	for	supply,	losses,	gains,	and	net	storage	withdrawals.	 12Includes	petroleum-derived	fuels	and	non-petroleum	derived	fuels,	such	as	ethanol	and	biodiesel,	and	coal-based	synthetic	liquids.	 	 Petroleum	coke,	which	is	a	solid,	is	

included. Also included are natural gas plant liquids and crude oil consumed as a fuel. Refer to Table A17 for detailed renewable liquid fuels consumption. 13Excludes coal converted to coal-based synthetic liquids and natural gas. 14Includes	grid-connected	electricity	from	wood	and	wood	waste,	non-electric	energy	from	wood,	and	biofuels	heat	and	coproducts	used	in	the	production	of	liquid	fuels,	but	

excludes the energy content of the liquid fuels. 15Includes	non-biogenic	municipal	waste,	liquid	hydrogen,	and	net	electricity	imports.	 16Includes	reported	prices	for	both	open	market	and	captive	mines.	 	 Prices	weighted	by	production,	which	differs	from	average	minemouth prices published in EIA data reports 

where it is weighted by reported sales. 17Prices	weighted	by	consumption;	weighted	average	excludes	residential	and	commercial	prices,	and	export	free-alongside-ship	(f.a.s.) prices. Btu = British thermal unit. 

Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. Data for 2011 are model results and may differ slightly from official EIA data reports. 

Sources:	2011	natural	gas	supply	values:	U.S.	Energy	Information	Administration	(EIA),	Natural Gas Monthly,	DOE/EIA-0130(2012/07)	(Washington,	DC,	July	2012).	2011	

natural gas spot price at Henry Hub based on daily data from Natural Gas Intelligence. 2011 coal minemouth and delivered coal prices:	 	 EIA,	Annual Coal Report 2011, DOE/EIA-0584(2011)	(Washington,	DC,	November	2012).	2011	petroleum	supply	values:	 	 EIA,	Petroleum Supply Annual 2011,	DOE/EIA-0340(2011)/1	(Washington,	DC,	

August 2012). 2011 crude oil spot prices: Thomson Reuters. Other 2011 coal values: Quarterly Coal Report, October-December 2011,	DOE/EIA-0121(2011/4Q)	(Washington,	

DC,	March	2012).	 	 Other	2011	values:	 	 EIA,	Annual Energy Review 2011,	DOE/EIA-0384(2011)	(Washington,	DC,	September	2012).	 	Projections:	 	 EIA,	AEO2013	National	

Energy	Modeling	System	runs	LOWPRICE.D031213A,	REF2013.D102312A,	and	HIGHPRICE.D110912A.	
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013 173

Price case comparisons

Table C2. Energy consumption by sector and source

(quadrillion Btu per year, unless otherwise noted)

Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Outlook 2013 

Table C2. Energy consumption by sector and source

(quadrillion	Btu	per	year,	unless otherwise noted)

Sector and source 2011

Projections 

2020 2030 2040

Low oil 

price Reference High oil price 

Low oil 

price Reference High oil price 

Low oil 

price Reference High oil price 

Energy consumption

 Residential 

 Propane ..................................................... 0.53 0.53 0.52 0.52 0.53 0.52 0.51 0.54 0.52 0.51

 Kerosene ................................................... 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01

 Distillate fuel oil .......................................... 0.59 0.54 0.51 0.48 0.44 0.40 0.37 0.37 0.32 0.30

 Liquid fuels and other petroleum subtotal 1.14 1.08 1.05 1.01 0.98 0.93 0.89 0.92 0.86 0.82

 Natural gas ................................................ 4.83 4.64 4.62 4.61 4.48 4.46 4.42 4.27 4.23 4.17

 Coal ........................................................... 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00

 Renewable energy1 .................................... 0.45 0.37 0.44 0.50 0.36 0.45 0.52 0.34 0.45 0.53

 Electricity ................................................... 4.86 4.87 4.84 4.81 5.41 5.36 5.31 6.13 6.03 5.93

 Delivered energy .................................. 11.28 10.97 10.95 10.94 11.23 11.20 11.15 11.67 11.57 11.46

 Electricity related losses ............................ 10.20 9.73 9.66 9.59 10.52 10.45 10.39 11.60 11.50 11.56

 Total ...................................................... 21.48 20.70 20.62 20.52 21.75 21.65 21.54 23.27 23.08 23.02

 Commercial 

 Propane ..................................................... 0.14 0.16 0.16 0.15 0.18 0.16 0.16 0.19 0.17 0.16

 Motor gasoline2 .......................................... 0.05 0.06 0.05 0.05 0.06 0.06 0.05 0.07 0.06 0.06

 Kerosene ................................................... 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.00

 Distillate fuel oil .......................................... 0.42 0.38 0.34 0.31 0.37 0.32 0.29 0.37 0.30 0.27

 Residual fuel oil .......................................... 0.07 0.12 0.09 0.08 0.12 0.09 0.07 0.13 0.09 0.07

 Liquid fuels and other petroleum subtotal 0.69 0.72 0.65 0.60 0.73 0.64 0.58 0.76 0.63 0.56

 Natural gas ................................................ 3.23 3.41 3.40 3.38 3.52 3.50 3.46 3.72 3.68 3.60

 Coal ........................................................... 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05

 Renewable energy3 .................................... 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13

 Electricity ................................................... 4.50 4.73 4.72 4.70 5.26 5.22 5.18 5.79 5.72 5.64

 Delivered energy .................................. 8.60 9.04 8.95 8.85 9.69 9.54 9.39 10.45 10.21 9.98

 Electricity related losses ............................ 9.45 9.46 9.42 9.37 10.22 10.18 10.15 10.96 10.92 11.00

 Total ...................................................... 18.05 18.50 18.37 18.23 19.91 19.72 19.54 21.42 21.13 20.97

 Industrial4

 Liquefied petroleum gases ......................... 2.10 2.37 2.46 2.52 2.32 2.47 2.50 2.21 2.30 2.31

 Propylene ................................................... 0.40 0.58 0.56 0.52 0.56 0.52 0.49 0.50 0.46 0.46

 Motor gasoline2 .......................................... 0.27 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.33 0.32 0.31 0.34 0.32 0.31

 Distillate fuel oil .......................................... 1.21 1.27 1.22 1.20 1.28 1.18 1.13 1.37 1.22 1.16

 Residual fuel oil .......................................... 0.11 0.12 0.11 0.10 0.12 0.11 0.10 0.13 0.11 0.10

	 	 	 	 	 Petrochemical	feedstocks	..........................		 0.88 1.09 1.03 1.02 1.15 1.08 1.08	 1.15	 1.09 1.09

 Other petroleum5 ........................................ 3.61 3.79 3.54 3.37 3.79 3.46 3.29 4.11 3.65 3.42

 Liquid fuels and other petroleum subtotal 8.57 9.53 9.25 9.05 9.56 9.14 8.89 9.79 9.16 8.85

 Natural gas ................................................ 6.92 7.79 7.86 7.90 7.94 7.97 7.90 8.04 8.08 8.01

 Natural-gas-to-liquids heat and power ....... 0.00 0.00 0.13 0.15 0.00 0.21 0.28 0.00 0.33 0.53

 Lease and plant fuel6 ................................. 1.42 1.53 1.57 1.62 1.56 1.73 2.00 1.64 1.97 2.49

 Natural gas subtotal ................................ 8.34 9.32 9.56 9.67 9.50 9.91 10.18 9.68 10.38 11.03

 Metallurgical coal ....................................... 0.56 0.61 0.60 0.59 0.52 0.52 0.52 0.46 0.46 0.47

 Other industrial coal ................................... 1.04 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.05 1.05 1.05

 Coal-to-liquids heat and power .................. 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.11 0.00 0.09 0.21 0.00 0.15 0.39

	 	 	 	 	 Net	coal	coke	imports	................................		 0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.04 -0.04 -0.04	 -0.05	 -0.05 -0.05

 Coal subtotal ........................................... 1.62 1.60 1.58 1.69 1.48 1.57 1.69 1.46 1.61 1.86

 Biofuels heat and coproducts ..................... 0.67 0.82 0.82 0.80 0.86 0.85 0.87 1.27 1.37 1.64

 Renewable energy7 .................................... 1.51 1.73 1.72 1.70 2.03 1.97 1.91 2.39 2.28 2.20

 Electricity ................................................... 3.33 4.00 3.95 3.90 4.00 3.96 3.92 3.93 3.91 3.90

 Delivered energy .................................. 24.04 27.01 26.87 26.80 27.43 27.40 27.44 28.52 28.71 29.48

 Electricity related losses ............................ 6.99 7.99 7.89 7.78 7.78 7.72 7.66 7.44 7.45 7.60

 Total ...................................................... 31.03 35.00 34.76 34.58 35.21 35.11 35.11 35.96 36.16 37.08
174 U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013

Price case comparisons

Table C2. Energy consumption by sector and source (continued)

(quadrillion Btu per year, unless otherwise noted)

Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Outlook 2013 

Table C2. Energy consumption by sector and source (continued)

(quadrillion	Btu	per	year,	unless otherwise noted)

Sector and source 2011

Projections 

2020 2030 2040

Low oil 

price Reference High oil price 

Low oil 

price Reference High oil price 

Low oil 

price Reference High oil price 

 Transportation 

 Propane ..................................................... 0.06 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.05 0.07 0.08 0.06 0.08 0.10

 E858 ........................................................... 0.05 0.06 0.08 0.11 0.13 0.16 0.34 0.15 0.17 0.61

 Motor gasoline2 .......................................... 16.31 15.50 14.88 14.16 13.91 13.06 12.21 13.85 12.64 11.51

 Jet fuel9 ...................................................... 3.01 3.12 3.11 3.10 3.29 3.28 3.28 3.43 3.42 3.41

 Distillate fuel oil10 ....................................... 5.91 7.38 7.28 6.95 7.98 7.61 6.58 9.16 7.90 6.68

 Residual fuel oil .......................................... 0.82 0.84 0.84 0.84 0.85 0.86 0.86 0.87 0.87 0.87

 Other petroleum11 ...................................... 0.17 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16

 Liquid fuels and other petroleum subtotal 26.32 27.11 26.42 25.39 26.38 25.20 23.51 27.67 25.24 23.35

 Pipeline fuel natural gas ............................. 0.70 0.71 0.71 0.72 0.72 0.74 0.76 0.74 0.78 0.81

 Compressed / liquefied natural gas ............ 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.35 0.07 0.26 1.24 0.09 1.05 2.24

 Liquid hydrogen ......................................... 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

 Electricity ................................................... 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.05 0.07 0.08

 Delivered energy .................................. 27.09 27.91 27.24 26.49 27.21 26.25 25.57 28.56 27.14 26.49

 Electricity related losses ............................ 0.05 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.08 0.09 0.10 0.10 0.13 0.16

 Total ...................................................... 27.13 27.97 27.30 26.56 27.29 26.33 25.67 28.67 27.27 26.66

 Delivered energy consumption for all 

 sectors 

 Liquefied petroleum gases ......................... 2.82 3.11 3.21 3.26 3.08 3.23 3.25 2.99 3.08 3.08

 Propylene ................................................... 0.40 0.58 0.56 0.52 0.56 0.52 0.49 0.50 0.46 0.46

 E858 ........................................................... 0.05 0.06 0.08 0.11 0.13 0.16 0.34 0.15 0.17 0.61

 Motor gasoline2 .......................................... 16.64 15.88 15.26 14.53 14.30 13.43 12.57 14.26 13.03 11.87

 Jet fuel9 ...................................................... 3.01 3.12 3.11 3.10 3.29 3.28 3.28 3.43 3.42 3.41

 Kerosene ................................................... 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.02 0.02

 Distillate fuel oil .......................................... 8.12 9.57 9.35 8.94 10.08 9.51 8.37 11.27 9.74 8.41

 Residual fuel oil .......................................... 1.01 1.08 1.05 1.02 1.10 1.05 1.03 1.12 1.07 1.05

	 	 	 	 	 Petrochemical	feedstocks	..........................		 0.88 1.09 1.03 1.02 1.15 1.08 1.08	 1.15	 1.09 1.09

 Other petroleum12 ...................................... 3.77 3.93 3.69 3.52 3.94 3.61 3.44 4.26 3.80 3.58

 Liquid fuels and other petroleum subtotal 36.72 38.44 37.37 36.04 37.66 35.90 33.86 39.15 35.88 33.59

 Natural gas ................................................ 15.03 15.90 15.95 16.25 16.01 16.19 17.02 16.12 17.05 18.03

 Natural-gas-to-liquids heat and power ....... 0.00 0.00 0.13 0.15 0.00 0.21 0.28 0.00 0.33 0.53

 Lease and plant fuel6 ................................. 1.42 1.53 1.57 1.62 1.56 1.73 2.00 1.64 1.97 2.49

 Pipeline natural gas ................................... 0.70 0.71 0.71 0.72 0.72 0.74 0.76 0.74 0.78 0.81

 Natural gas subtotal ................................ 17.15 18.14 18.36 18.73 18.29 18.87 20.06 18.50 20.13 21.86

 Metallurgical coal ....................................... 0.56 0.61 0.60 0.59 0.52 0.52 0.52 0.46 0.46 0.47

 Other coal .................................................. 1.10 1.06 1.06 1.05 1.06 1.06 1.06 1.10 1.11 1.11

 Coal-to-liquids heat and power .................. 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.11 0.00 0.09 0.21 0.00 0.15 0.39

	 	 	 	 	 Net	coal	coke	imports	................................		 0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.04 -0.04 -0.04	 -0.05	 -0.05 -0.05

 Coal subtotal ........................................... 1.67 1.66 1.64 1.74 1.54 1.63 1.74 1.51 1.67 1.91

 Biofuels heat and coproducts ..................... 0.67 0.82 0.82 0.80 0.86 0.85 0.87 1.27 1.37 1.64

 Renewable energy13 .................................. 2.08 2.23 2.28 2.33 2.51 2.54 2.56 2.86 2.86 2.86

 Liquid hydrogen ......................................... 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

 Electricity ................................................... 12.71 13.63 13.54 13.44 14.71 14.59 14.46 15.91 15.72 15.55

 Delivered energy .................................. 71.01 74.92 74.01 73.08 75.57 74.38 73.56 79.21 77.63 77.41

 Electricity related losses ............................ 26.69 27.24 27.03 26.80 28.60 28.43 28.30 30.11 30.00 30.32

 Total ...................................................... 97.70 102.16 101.04 99.88 104.17 102.81 101.86 109.32 107.64 107.73

 Electric power14

 Distillate fuel oil .......................................... 0.06 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08

 Residual fuel oil .......................................... 0.23 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.11 0.11 0.11

 Liquid fuels and other petroleum subtotal 0.30 0.18 0.18 0.17 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.19 0.19 0.19

 Natural gas ................................................ 7.76 8.42 8.40 8.31 9.52 9.08 8.60 10.47 9.70 8.16

 Steam coal ................................................. 17.99 17.28 16.95 16.76 18.01 18.07 18.19 18.81 18.68 18.79

 Nuclear / uranium15 .................................... 8.26 9.25 9.25 9.25 9.49 9.49 9.53 9.14 9.44 10.63

 Renewable energy16 .................................. 4.74 5.44 5.49 5.45 5.85 5.93 5.99 7.13 7.44 7.80

 Electricity imports ....................................... 0.13 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.04 0.05 0.05 0.06 0.06 0.08

 Total17 ................................................... 39.40 40.87 40.57 40.24 43.31 43.02 42.76 46.02 45.73 45.87
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013 175

Price case comparisons

Table C2. Energy consumption by sector and source (continued)

(quadrillion Btu per year, unless otherwise noted)

Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Outlook 2013 

Table C2. Energy consumption by sector and source (continued)

(quadrillion	Btu	per	year,	unless otherwise noted)

Sector and source 2011

Projections 

2020 2030 2040

Low oil 

price Reference High oil price 

Low oil 

price Reference High oil price 

Low oil 

price Reference High oil price 

 Total energy consumption 

 Liquefied petroleum gases ......................... 2.82 3.11 3.21 3.26 3.08 3.23 3.25 2.99 3.08 3.08

 Propylene ................................................... 0.40 0.58 0.56 0.52 0.56 0.52 0.49 0.50 0.46 0.46

 E858 ........................................................... 0.05 0.06 0.08 0.11 0.13 0.16 0.34 0.15 0.17 0.61

 Motor gasoline2 .......................................... 16.64 15.88 15.26 14.53 14.30 13.43 12.57 14.26 13.03 11.87

 Jet fuel9 ...................................................... 3.01 3.12 3.11 3.10 3.29 3.28 3.28 3.43 3.42 3.41

 Kerosene ................................................... 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.02 0.02

 Distillate fuel oil .......................................... 8.18 9.65 9.43 9.01 10.15 9.59 8.45 11.34 9.82 8.49

 Residual fuel oil .......................................... 1.24 1.18 1.15 1.12 1.20 1.15 1.13 1.23 1.17 1.15

	 	 	 	 	 Petrochemical	feedstocks	..........................		 0.88 1.09 1.03 1.02 1.15 1.08 1.08	 1.15	 1.09 1.09

 Other petroleum12 ...................................... 3.77 3.93 3.69 3.52 3.94 3.61 3.44 4.26 3.80 3.58

 Liquid fuels and other petroleum subtotal 37.02 38.62 37.54 36.21 37.84 36.08 34.04 39.34 36.07 33.77

 Natural gas ................................................ 22.79 24.32 24.36 24.55 25.53 25.27 25.62 26.59 26.75 26.18

 Natural-gas-to-liquids heat and power ....... 0.00 0.00 0.13 0.15 0.00 0.21 0.28 0.00 0.33 0.53

 Lease and plant fuel6 ................................. 1.42 1.53 1.57 1.62 1.56 1.73 2.00 1.64 1.97 2.49

 Pipeline natural gas ................................... 0.70 0.71 0.71 0.72 0.72 0.74 0.76 0.74 0.78 0.81

 Natural gas subtotal ................................ 24.91 26.56 26.77 27.04 27.80 27.95 28.66 28.97 29.83 30.01

 Metallurgical coal ....................................... 0.56 0.61 0.60 0.59 0.52 0.52 0.52 0.46 0.46 0.47

 Other coal .................................................. 19.09 18.34 18.01 17.81 19.06 19.12 19.25 19.91 19.79 19.90

 Coal-to-liquids heat and power .................. 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.11 0.00 0.09 0.21 0.00 0.15 0.39

	 	 	 	 	 Net	coal	coke	imports	................................		 0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.04 -0.04 -0.04	 -0.05	 -0.05 -0.05

 Coal subtotal ........................................... 19.66 18.93 18.59 18.50 19.54 19.70 19.94 20.32 20.35 20.71

 Nuclear / uranium15 .................................... 8.26 9.25 9.25 9.25 9.49 9.49 9.53 9.14 9.44 10.63

 Biofuels heat and coproducts ..................... 0.67 0.82 0.82 0.80 0.86 0.85 0.87 1.27 1.37 1.64

 Renewable energy18 .................................. 6.82 7.67 7.77 7.77 8.36 8.47 8.54 9.98 10.30 10.65

 Liquid hydrogen ......................................... 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

 Electricity imports ....................................... 0.13 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.04 0.05 0.05 0.06 0.06 0.08

 Total ...................................................... 97.70 102.16 101.04 99.88 104.17 102.81 101.86 109.32 107.64 107.73

Energy use and related statistics 

 Delivered energy use ...................................... 71.01 74.92 74.01 73.08 75.57 74.38 73.56 79.21 77.63 77.41

 Total energy use ............................................. 97.70 102.16 101.04 99.88 104.17 102.81 101.86 109.32 107.64 107.73

 Ethanol consumed in motor gasoline and E85 1.17 1.34 1.34 1.30 1.29 1.24 1.28 1.29 1.21 1.40

 Population (millions) ....................................... 312.38 340.45 340.45 340.45 372.41 372.41 372.41 404.39 404.39 404.39

	 	 Gross	domestic	product	(billion	2005	dollars)	.		 13,299 16,932 16,859 16,803 21,437 21,355 21,301	 27,460	 27,277 27,270

	 	 Carbon	dioxide	emissions	(million	metric	tons) 5,471 5,559 5,455 5,365 5,636 5,523 5,432	 5,887	 5,691 5,548

1

Includes	wood	used	for	residential	heating.	See	Table	A4	and/or	Table	A17	for	estimates	of	nonmarketed	renewable	energy	consumption	for	geothermal	heat	pumps,	solar	

thermal	water	heating,	and	electricity	generation	from	wind	and	solar	photovoltaic	sources.	 2

Includes ethanol (blends of 15 percent or less) and ethers blended into gasoline. 

3

Excludes	ethanol.	 	 Includes	commercial	sector	consumption	of	wood	and	wood	waste,	landfill	gas,	municipal	waste,	and	other	biomass for combined heat and power. See 

Table	A5	and/or	Table	A17	for	estimates	of	nonmarketed	renewable	energy	consumption	for	solar	thermal	water	heating	and	electricity generation from wind and solar 

photovoltaic sources. 4

Includes	energy	for	combined	heat	and	power	plants	that	have	a	non-regulatory	status,	and	small	on-site	generating	systems.	

5

Includes	petroleum	coke,	asphalt,	road	oil,	lubricants,	still	gas,	and	miscellaneous	petroleum	products.	

6

Represents	natural	gas	used	in	well,	field,	and	lease	operations,	in	natural	gas	processing	plant	machinery,	and	for	liquefaction in export facilities. 7

Includes	consumption	of	energy	produced	from	hydroelectric,	wood	and	wood	waste,	municipal	waste,	and	other	biomass	sources.	 	 Excludes ethanol blends (15 percent or 

less) in motor gasoline. 8

E85 refers to a blend of 85 percent ethanol (renewable) and 15 percent motor gasoline (nonrenewable). To address cold starting	issues,	the	percentage	of	ethanol	varies	

seasonally. The annual average ethanol content of 74 percent is used for this forecast. 9

Includes	only	kerosene	type.	

10Diesel fuel for on- and off- road use. 11Includes aviation gasoline and lubricants. 12Includes	unfinished	oils,	natural	gasoline,	motor	gasoline	blending	components,	aviation	gasoline,	lubricants,	still	gas,	asphalt,	road	oil,	petroleum	coke,	and	miscellaneous	

petroleum products. 13Includes	electricity	generated	for	sale	to	the	grid	and	for	own	use	from	renewable	sources,	and	non-electric	energy	from	renewable sources. Excludes ethanol and nonmarketed	renewable	energy	consumption	for	geothermal	heat	pumps,	buildings	photovoltaic	systems,	and	solar	thermal	water	heaters. 14Includes consumption of energy by electricity-only and combined heat and power plants that have a regulatory status. 15These values represent the energy obtained from uranium when it is used in light water reactors. The total energy content of uranium	is	much	larger,	but	alternative	

processes	are	required	to	take	advantage	of	it.	 16Includes	conventional	hydroelectric,	geothermal,	wood	and	wood	waste,	biogenic	municipal	waste,	other	biomass,	wind,	photovoltaic,	and	solar	thermal	sources.	 	 Excludes	

net electricity imports. 17Includes non-biogenic municipal waste not included above. 18Includes	conventional	hydroelectric,	geothermal,	wood	and	wood	waste,	biogenic	municipal	waste,	other	biomass,	wind,	photovoltaic,	and	solar	thermal	sources.	 	 Excludes	

ethanol,	net	electricity	imports,	and	nonmarketed	renewable	energy	consumption	for	geothermal	heat	pumps,	buildings	photovoltaic	systems,	and	solar	thermal	water	heaters.	

Btu = British thermal unit. 

Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. Data for 2011 are model results and may differ slightly from official EIA data reports. Sources:	 	 2011	consumption	based	on:	 	 U.S.	Energy	Information	Administration	(EIA),	Annual Energy Review 2011,	DOE-EIA-0384(2011)	(Washington,	DC,	September	

2012).	 	 2011	population	and	gross	domestic	product:	IHS	Global	Insight	Industry	and	Employment	models,	August	2012.	 	 2011	carbon	dioxide	emissions:	 	 EIA,	Monthly Energy 

Review,	DOE/EIA-0035(2012/08)	(Washington,	DC,	August	2012).	 	Projections:	 	 EIA,	AEO2013	National	Energy	Modeling	System	runs	LOWPRICE.D031213A,	

REF2013.D102312A,	and	HIGHPRICE.D110912A.	
176 U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013

Price case comparisons

Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Outlook 2013 

Table C3. Energy prices by sector and source

(2011 dollars per million Btu, unless otherwise noted)

Sector and source 2011

Projections 

2020 2030 2040

Low oil 

price Reference High oil price 

Low oil 

price Reference High oil price 

Low oil 

price Reference High oil Price 

Residential 

 Propane ........................................................ 25.06 21.80 23.41 24.99 22.85 25.73 27.96 23.78 27.99 30.62

 Distillate fuel oil ............................................. 26.38 20.03 26.91 35.67 20.57 31.26 42.37 21.07 36.54 50.06

 Natural gas .................................................... 10.80 11.59 11.78 12.00 13.08 13.37 13.99 15.59 16.36 17.67

 Electricity ....................................................... 34.34 33.29 33.62 34.11 33.95 34.56 35.51 35.71 37.10 38.85

Commercial

 Propane ........................................................ 22.10 18.08 20.04 22.02 19.35 22.97 25.89 20.51 25.94 29.52

 Distillate fuel oil ............................................. 25.87 17.40 24.26 32.84 18.14 28.51 39.66 18.60 33.74 47.32

 Residual fuel oil ............................................. 19.17 9.76 14.82 21.95 10.44 18.77 27.34 10.95 23.41 35.80

 Natural gas .................................................... 8.84 9.30 9.47 9.68 10.43 10.70 11.29 12.49 13.21 14.48

 Electricity ....................................................... 29.98 28.27 28.57 29.04 28.02 28.65 29.55 30.33 31.75 33.58

Industrial1

 Propane ........................................................ 22.54 18.40 20.51 22.64 19.74 23.64 26.78 20.90 26.78 30.64

 Distillate fuel oil ............................................. 26.50 17.82 24.67 33.13 18.79 28.91 40.09 19.26 34.16 47.78

 Residual fuel oil ............................................. 18.86 12.07 17.19 24.34 12.71 21.09 29.79 13.21 25.78 38.15

 Natural gas2 .................................................. 4.89 5.44 5.53 5.70 6.43 6.56 7.12 8.30 8.88 10.01

 Metallurgical coal .......................................... 7.01 8.62 8.75 8.89 9.91 10.09 10.28 10.86 11.11 11.40

 Other industrial coal ...................................... 3.43 3.33 3.44 3.57 3.54 3.71 3.85 3.86 4.06 4.26

 Coal to liquids ............................................... - - - - - - 2.24 - - 2.55 2.64 - - 2.95 3.16

 Electricity ....................................................... 19.98 18.50 18.72 19.10 19.29 19.73 20.42 21.63 22.74 24.17

Transportation 

 Propane ........................................................ 26.06 22.87 24.48 26.05 23.92 26.80 29.02 24.86 29.07 31.69

 E853 .............................................................. 25.30 25.56 29.64 35.68 20.70 26.94 37.43 20.19 30.58 44.43

 Motor gasoline4 ............................................. 28.70 21.86 27.84 35.94 21.67 30.73 41.08 22.12 36.18 49.07

 Jet fuel5 ......................................................... 22.49 14.55 21.50 29.81 15.36 26.03 36.77 16.16 31.07 44.44

 Diesel fuel (distillate fuel oil)6 ........................ 26.15 19.78 26.61 35.02 20.82 30.81 42.01 21.30 36.05 49.68

 Residual fuel oil ............................................. 17.83 10.00 14.91 21.28 10.59 18.34 26.44 10.98 22.45 32.70

 Natural gas7 .................................................. 16.14 16.52 16.87 18.82 17.02 18.90 19.95 18.48 21.20 22.38

 Electricity ....................................................... 32.77 29.58 29.60 29.71 31.05 31.53 32.69 33.65 35.07 37.01

Electric power8

 Distillate fuel oil ............................................. 23.30 15.56 22.45 31.20 16.06 26.80 37.87 16.58 32.03 45.58

 Residual fuel oil ............................................. 15.97 19.75 24.94 32.23 20.84 29.36 38.13 21.51 34.54 46.84

 Natural gas .................................................... 4.77 4.79 4.90 5.07 5.86 6.05 6.55 7.79 8.38 9.34

 Steam coal .................................................... 2.38 2.41 2.52 2.64 2.69 2.87 3.02 2.97 3.20 3.40

Average price to all users9

 Propane ........................................................ 17.13 11.34 13.69 16.52 12.98 18.14 23.54 14.84 23.79 31.84

 E853 .............................................................. 25.30 25.56 29.64 35.68 20.70 26.94 37.43 20.19 30.58 44.43

 Motor gasoline4 ............................................. 28.47 21.86 27.84 35.94 21.66 30.72 41.07 22.11 36.17 49.06

 Jet fuel5 ......................................................... 22.49 14.55 21.50 29.81 15.36 26.03 36.77 16.16 31.07 44.44

 Distillate fuel oil ............................................. 26.18 19.41 26.25 34.69 20.42 30.48 41.65 20.92 35.73 49.32

 Residual fuel oil ............................................. 17.65 11.00 15.97 22.54 11.66 19.59 27.83 12.16 23.95 34.70

 Natural gas .................................................... 6.68 6.96 7.07 7.39 7.97 8.27 9.28 9.89 10.94 12.65

 Metallurgical coal .......................................... 7.01 8.62 8.75 8.89 9.91 10.09 10.28 10.86 11.11 11.40

 Other coal ..................................................... 2.45 2.47 2.57 2.70 2.74 2.92 3.07 3.02 3.25 3.45

 Coal to liquids ............................................... - - - - - - 2.24 - - 2.55 2.64 - - 2.95 3.16

 Electricity ....................................................... 29.03 27.20 27.50 27.97 27.84 28.41 29.28 30.27 31.58 33.25

Non-renewable energy expenditures by 

 sector (billion 2011 dollars) 

 Residential .................................................... 248.08 238.38 243.44 249.62 263.61 271.05 280.75 306.29 319.63 335.09

 Commercial ................................................... 179.97 177.66 181.68 186.64 197.00 203.80 212.25 236.19 249.60 264.69

 Industrial ....................................................... 225.18 228.72 259.03 297.45 246.43 294.99 347.49 273.46 353.70 429.01

 Transportation ............................................... 718.25 544.15 694.73 877.09 533.56 749.40 956.36 574.15 900.68 1,141.45

 Total non-renewable expenditures ............. 1,371.48 1,188.91 1,378.87 1,610.80 1,240.60 1,519.24 1,796.86 1,390.08 1,823.61 2,170.24

 Transportation renewable expenditures ..... 1.24 1.50 2.44 3.87 2.75 4.39 12.79 2.94 5.05 27.17

 Total expenditures .................................. 1,372.71 1,190.40 1,381.31 1,614.68 1,243.35 1,523.63 1,809.64 1,393.03 1,828.66 2,197.42

Table C3. Energy prices by sector and source

(2011 dollars per million Btu, unless otherwise noted)
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013 177

Price case comparisons

Table C3. Energy prices by sector and source (continued)

(nominal dollars per million Btu, unless otherwise noted)

Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Outlook 2013 

Table C3. Energy prices by sector and source (continued)

(nominal	dollars	per	million	Btu,	unless	otherwise	noted)

Sector and source 2011

Projections 

2020 2030 2040

Low oil 

price Reference High oil price 

Low oil 

price Reference High oil price 

Low oil 

price Reference High oil price 

Residential 

 Propane ........................................................ 25.06 25.19 27.00 28.64 31.98 35.51 37.99 40.37 46.20 49.38

 Distillate fuel oil ............................................. 26.38 23.14 31.03 40.88 28.79 43.14 57.58 35.77 60.31 80.74

 Natural gas .................................................... 10.80 13.39 13.58 13.75 18.30 18.45 19.01 26.46 27.01 28.51

 Electricity ....................................................... 34.34 38.46 38.76 39.09 47.52 47.69 48.25 60.62 61.23 62.66

Commercial

 Propane ........................................................ 22.10 20.89 23.11 25.24 27.08 31.70 35.18 34.81 42.82 47.62

 Distillate fuel oil ............................................. 25.87 20.10 27.97 37.64 25.39 39.34 53.88 31.58 55.68 76.33

 Residual fuel oil ............................................. 19.17 11.28 17.09 25.16 14.61 25.90 37.15 18.59 38.64 57.74

 Natural gas .................................................... 8.84 10.74 10.92 11.09 14.59 14.76 15.34 21.19 21.81 23.36

 Electricity ....................................................... 29.98 32.66 32.94 33.29 39.21 39.54 40.15 51.48 52.40 54.16

Industrial1

 Propane ........................................................ 22.54 21.26 23.65 25.95 27.62 32.62 36.39 35.48 44.20 49.42

 Distillate fuel oil ............................................. 26.50 20.59 28.45 37.97 26.30 39.89 54.47 32.69 56.39 77.06

 Residual fuel oil ............................................. 18.86 13.95 19.82 27.90 17.78 29.10 40.48 22.42 42.55 61.53

 Natural gas2 .................................................. 4.89 6.29 6.38 6.53 9.00 9.05 9.68 14.10 14.66 16.15

 Metallurgical coal .......................................... 7.01 9.96 10.09 10.19 13.87 13.92 13.97 18.43 18.34 18.39

 Other industrial coal ...................................... 3.43 3.85 3.97 4.09 4.96 5.12 5.23 6.56 6.70 6.87

 Coal to liquids ............................................... - - - - - - 2.57 - - 3.52 3.59 - - 4.87 5.10

 Electricity ....................................................... 19.98 21.38 21.59 21.89 26.99 27.22 27.75 36.72 37.54 38.98

Transportation 

 Propane ........................................................ 26.06 26.42 28.22 29.86 33.48 36.98 39.43 42.20 47.97 51.11

 E853 .............................................................. 25.30 29.53 34.18 40.89 28.97 37.18 50.86 34.27 50.46 71.65

 Motor gasoline4 ............................................. 28.70 25.26 32.10 41.20 30.32 42.41 55.82 37.54 59.72 79.15

 Jet fuel5 ......................................................... 22.49 16.81 24.79 34.16 21.49 35.92 49.96 27.44 51.27 71.68

 Diesel fuel (distillate fuel oil)6 ........................ 26.15 22.85 30.68 40.14 29.14 42.52 57.08 36.15 59.50 80.13

 Residual fuel oil ............................................. 17.83 11.56 17.19 24.38 14.82 25.31 35.93 18.63 37.06 52.75

 Natural gas7 .................................................. 16.14 19.08 19.46 21.57 23.81 26.08 27.11 31.37 34.98 36.09

 Electricity ....................................................... 32.77 34.17 34.13 34.06 43.46 43.51 44.42 57.12 57.88 59.70

Electric power8

 Distillate fuel oil ............................................. 23.30 17.98 25.89 35.76 22.48 36.98 51.45 28.15 52.87 73.52

 Residual fuel oil ............................................. 15.97 22.82 28.76 36.94 29.17 40.52 51.81 36.52 57.01 75.54

 Natural gas .................................................... 4.77 5.53 5.65 5.81 8.20 8.35 8.90 13.22 13.83 15.06

 Steam coal .................................................... 2.38 2.79 2.90 3.03 3.76 3.96 4.10 5.04 5.28 5.48
178 U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013

Price case comparisons

Table C3. Energy prices by sector and source (continued)

(nominal dollars per million Btu, unless otherwise noted)

Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Outlook 2013 

Table C3. Energy prices by sector and source (continued)

(nominal	dollars	per	million	Btu,	unless	otherwise	noted)

Sector and source 2011

Projections 

2020 2030 2040

Low oil 

price Reference High oil price 

Low oil 

price Reference High oil price 

Low oil 

price Reference High oil price 

Average price to all users9

 Propane ........................................................ 17.13 13.10 15.78 18.93 18.16 25.03 31.99 25.19 39.26 51.36

 E853 .............................................................. 25.30 29.53 34.18 40.89 28.97 37.18 50.86 34.27 50.46 71.65

 Motor gasoline4 ............................................. 28.47 25.25 32.10 41.19 30.32 42.40 55.81 37.53 59.70 79.13

 Jet fuel5 ......................................................... 22.49 16.81 24.79 34.16 21.49 35.92 49.96 27.44 51.27 71.68

 Distillate fuel oil ............................................. 26.18 22.42 30.27 39.76 28.58 42.07 56.59 35.52 58.97 79.55

 Residual fuel oil ............................................. 17.65 12.71 18.41 25.83 16.32 27.03 37.81 20.63 39.53 55.97

 Natural gas .................................................... 6.68 8.04 8.16 8.47 11.15 11.41 12.61 16.79 18.06 20.40

 Metallurgical coal .......................................... 7.01 9.96 10.09 10.19 13.87 13.92 13.97 18.43 18.34 18.39

 Other coal ..................................................... 2.45 2.86 2.97 3.10 3.83 4.03 4.17 5.13 5.37 5.57

 Coal to liquids ............................................... - - - - - - 2.57 - - 3.52 3.59 - - 4.87 5.10

 Electricity ....................................................... 29.03 31.42 31.71 32.05 38.95 39.20 39.78 51.37 52.12 53.63

Non-renewable energy expenditures by 

 sector (billion nominal dollars) 

 Residential .................................................... 248.08 275.42 280.71 286.10 368.92 374.04 381.49 519.90 527.54 540.45

 Commercial ................................................... 179.97 205.26 209.48 213.91 275.70 281.23 288.41 400.92 411.95 426.92

 Industrial ....................................................... 225.18 264.27 298.68 340.93 344.87 407.07 472.18 464.18 583.76 691.95

 Transportation ............................................... 718.25 628.70 801.07 1,005.28 746.71 1,034.13 1,299.52	 974.58	 1,486.52 1,841.03

	 	 	 	 	 Total	non-renewable	expenditures	.............		 1,371.48 1,373.65 1,589.94 1,846.23 1,736.20 2,096.47 2,441.59	 2,359.59	 3,009.77 3,500.35

 Transportation renewable expenditures ..... 1.24 1.73 2.81 4.44 3.85 6.06 17.38 5.00 8.33 43.83

 Total expenditures .................................. 1,372.71 1,375.38 1,592.75 1,850.67 1,740.04 2,102.52 2,458.97 2,364.59 3,018.11 3,544.17

1

Includes	energy	for	combined	heat	and	power	plants	that	have	a	non-regulatory	status,	and	small	on-site	generating	systems.	

2

Excludes use for lease and plant fuel. 

3

E85 refers to a blend of 85 percent ethanol (renewable) and 15 percent motor gasoline (nonrenewable). To address cold starting	issues,	the	percentage	of	ethanol	varies	

seasonally. The annual average ethanol content of 74 percent is used for this forecast. 4

Sales	weighted-average	price	for	all	grades.	 	 Includes	Federal,	State	and	local	taxes.	

5

Kerosene-type	jet	fuel.	 	 Includes	Federal	and	State	taxes	while	excluding	county	and	local	taxes.	

6

Diesel	fuel	for	on-road	use.	 	 Includes	Federal	and	State	taxes	while	excluding	county	and	local	taxes.	

7

Natural gas used as a vehicle fuel. Includes estimated motor vehicle fuel taxes and estimated dispensing costs or charges. 

8

Includes electricity-only and combined heat and power plants that have a regulatory status. 

9

Weighted averages of end-use fuel prices are derived from the prices shown in each sector and the corresponding sectoral consumption. 

Btu = British thermal unit. 

- - = Not applicable. 

Note: Data for 2011 are model results and may differ slightly from official EIA data reports. 

Sources:	 	 2011	prices	for	motor	gasoline,	distillate	fuel	oil,	and	jet	fuel	are	based	on	prices	in	the	U.S.	Energy	Information	Administration	(EIA),	Petroleum Marketing Monthly, DOE/EIA-0380(2012/08)	(Washington,	DC,	August	2012).	 	 2011	residential,	commercial,	and	industrial	natural	gas	delivered	prices:	 	 EIA,	Natural Gas Monthly,

DOE/EIA-0130Natural	Gas	Monthly,	DOE/EIA-0130(2012/07)	(Washington,	DC,	July	2012).	 	 2011	transportation	sector	natural	gas	delivered prices are model results. 2011 

electric	power	sector	distillate	and	residual	fuel	oil	prices:	EIA,	Monthly Energy Review,	DOE/EIA-0035(2012/09)	(Washington,	DC,	September	2012).	 	 2011	electric	power	sector	

natural	gas	prices:	EIA,	Electric Power Monthly,	DOE/EIA-0226,	April	2011	and	April	2012,	Table	4.2,	and	EIA,	State Energy Data Report 2010,	DOE/EIA-0214(2010)	

(Washington,	DC,	June	2012).	 	 2011	coal	prices	based	on:	 	 EIA,	Quarterly Coal Report, October-December 2011,	DOE/EIA-0121(2011/4Q)	(Washington,	DC,	March	2012)	and	

EIA,	AEO2013	National	Energy	Modeling	System	run	REF2013.D102312A.	 	 2011	electricity	prices:	 	 EIA,	Annual Energy Review 2011,	DOE/EIA-0384(2011)	(Washington,	DC,	

September	2012).	 	 2011	E85	prices	derived	from	monthly	prices	in	the	Clean	Cities	Alternative	Fuel	Price	Report.	 	Projections:	 	 EIA,	AEO2013	National	Energy	Modeling	

System	runs	LOWPRICE.D031213A,	REF2013.D102312A,	and	HIGHPRICE.D110912A.	
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013 179

Price case comparisons

Table C4. Liquid fuels supply and disposition

(million barrels per day, unless otherwise noted)

Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Outlook 2013 

Table C4. Liquid fuels supply and disposition

(million	barrels	per	day, unless otherwise noted)

Supply and disposition 2011

Projections 

2020 2030 2040

Low oil 

price Reference High oil price 

Low oil 

price Reference High oil price 

Low oil 

price Reference High oil price 

Crude oil 

 Domestic crude production1 .......................... 5.67 7.12 7.47 7.78 5.57 6.30 7.04 4.67 6.13 6.82

	 	 	 	 	 	 Alaska	......................................................		 0.57 0.49 0.49 0.52 0.25 0.38 0.54	 0.00	 0.41 0.40

 Lower 48 states ........................................ 5.10 6.64 6.98 7.26 5.32 5.92 6.50 4.67 5.72 6.42

 Net imports .................................................... 8.89 7.48 6.82 6.05 8.70 7.36 5.98 10.13 7.57 5.86

 Gross imports ........................................... 8.94 7.48 6.82 6.05 8.70 7.36 5.98 10.13 7.57 5.86

 Exports ..................................................... 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

 Other crude supply2 ...................................... 0.26 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

 Total crude supply ................................. 14.81 14.61 14.29 13.82 14.27 13.66 13.02 14.79 13.70 12.68

Other petroleum supply .................................. 3.02 4.28 4.04 3.84 4.18 3.82 3.37 4.08 3.29 2.80

 Natural gas plant liquids ................................ 2.22 3.01 3.13 3.20 2.86 2.90 3.01 2.77 2.92 3.06

 Net product imports ....................................... -0.30 0.18 -0.13 -0.35 0.26 -0.08 -0.57 0.20 -0.67 -1.15

 Gross refined product imports3 ................. 1.15 1.62 1.47 1.41 1.73 1.53 1.24 1.99 1.42 1.07

 Unfinished oil imports ............................... 0.69 0.64 0.56 0.47 0.63 0.51 0.40 0.60 0.45 0.30

 Blending component imports .................... 0.72 0.71 0.63 0.56 0.63 0.54 0.44 0.59 0.40 0.36

 Exports ..................................................... 2.86 2.78 2.79 2.79 2.73 2.67 2.64 2.98 2.94 2.89

 Refinery processing gain4 ............................. 1.08 1.09 1.04 0.99 1.06 1.00 0.93 1.12 1.03 0.89

	 	 	 Product	stock	withdrawal	..............................		 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00	 0.00	 0.00 0.00

Other non-petroleum supply ........................... 1.09 1.42 1.51 1.54 1.42 1.58 1.70 1.65 1.97 2.42

 Supply from renewable sources .................... 0.90 1.18 1.18 1.15 1.17 1.14 1.18 1.38 1.43 1.70

 Ethanol ..................................................... 0.84 1.08 1.08 1.04 1.04 0.99 1.03 1.04 0.97 1.12

 Domestic production ............................ 0.91 1.01 1.01 0.97 0.98 0.95 0.94 0.98 0.89 1.00

 Net imports .......................................... -0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.05 0.04 0.09 0.06 0.08 0.12

 Biodiesel ................................................... 0.06 0.07 0.08 0.08 0.02 0.08 0.08 0.02 0.08 0.09

 Domestic production ............................ 0.06 0.06 0.07 0.07 0.00 0.07 0.07 0.00 0.07 0.07

 Net imports .......................................... 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01

 Other biomass-derived liquids5................. 0.00 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.11 0.06 0.07 0.33 0.38 0.49

 Liquids from gas ............................................ 0.00 0.00 0.08 0.09 0.00 0.13 0.17 0.00 0.20 0.31

 Liquids from coal ........................................... 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.00 0.04 0.09 0.00 0.06 0.16

 Other6 ............................................................ 0.18 0.24 0.25 0.26 0.25 0.28 0.26 0.26 0.28 0.24

Total primary supply7 ...................................... 18.92 20.31 19.84 19.21 19.87 19.06 18.10 20.52 18.96 17.90

Liquid fuels consumption 

 by fuel 

 Liquefied petroleum gases ....................... 2.30 2.84 2.90 2.91 2.81 2.90 2.90 2.69 2.75 2.76

 E858 ......................................................... 0.03 0.04 0.06 0.07 0.09 0.11 0.23 0.10 0.11 0.42

 Motor gasoline9 ........................................ 8.74 8.67 8.34 7.94 7.81 7.34 6.87 7.79 7.12 6.49

 Jet fuel10 ................................................... 1.43 1.52 1.52 1.51 1.60 1.60 1.59 1.67 1.66 1.66

 Distillate fuel oil11 ...................................... 3.90 4.59 4.48 4.29 4.83 4.56 4.02 5.40 4.67 4.04

 Diesel................................................... 3.51 4.12 4.04 3.87 4.41 4.18 3.66 5.00 4.33 3.71

 Residual fuel oil ........................................ 0.46 0.51 0.50 0.49 0.52 0.50 0.49 0.54 0.51 0.50

 Other12...................................................... 2.08 2.18 2.04 1.96 2.21 2.03 1.95 2.34 2.11 2.02

 by sector 

 Residential and commercial ..................... 1.06 1.06 1.01 0.96 1.02 0.95 0.90 1.01 0.91 0.86

 Industrial13 ................................................ 4.43 5.21 5.10 5.02 5.22 5.05 4.95 5.25 5.00 4.87

 Transportation .......................................... 13.63 14.00 13.65 13.11 13.57 12.95 12.13 14.18 12.95 12.07

 Electric power14 ........................................ 0.13 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08

 Total ............................................................. 18.95 20.35 19.84 19.17 19.89 19.04 18.06 20.53 18.95 17.89

Discrepancy15 ................................................... -0.03 -0.04 0.01 0.03 -0.02 0.02 0.03 -0.01 0.01 0.01
180 U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013

Price case comparisons

Table C4. Liquid fuels supply and disposition (continued)

(million barrels per day, unless otherwise noted)

Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Outlook 2013 

Table C4. Liquid fuels supply and disposition (continued)

(million	barrels	per	day, unless otherwise noted)

Supply and disposition 2011

Projections 

2020 2030 2040

Low oil 

price Reference High oil price 

Low oil 

price Reference High oil price 

Low oil 

price Reference High oil price 

Domestic refinery distillation capacity16 ............. 17.7 17.5 17.5 17.5 17.5 17.5 17.5 17.5 17.5 17.5

Capacity utilization rate (percent)17 .................... 86.0 92.7 90.7 87.7 90.6 86.7 82.7 93.9 86.9 80.5

Net import share of product supplied (percent) .. 45.0 38.2 34.1 30.1 45.4 38.5 30.5 50.6 36.9 27.1

Net expenditures for imported crude oil and 

 petroleum products (billion 2011 dollars) ...... 362.66 184.56 259.66 336.24 220.72 342.67 410.95 265.20 433.65 495.87

1

Includes lease condensate. 

2

Strategic	petroleum	reserve	stock	additions	plus	unaccounted	for	crude	oil	and	crude	stock	withdrawals	minus	crude	product	supplied. 3

Includes other hydrocarbons and alcohols. 

4

The	volumetric	amount	by	which	total	output	is	greater	than	input	due	to	the	processing	of	crude	oil	into	products	which,	in	total,	have	a	lower	specific	gravity	than	the	crude	

oil processed. 5

Includes	pyrolysis	oils,	biomass-derived	Fischer-Tropsch	liquids,	and	renewable	feedstocks	used	for	the	on-site	production	of	diesel and gasoline. 6

Includes	domestic	sources	of	other	blending	components,	other	hydrocarbons,	and	ethers.	

7

Total crude supply plus other petroleum supply plus other non-petroleum supply. 

8

E85 refers to a blend of 85 percent ethanol (renewable) and 15 percent motor gasoline (nonrenewable). To address cold starting	issues,	the	percentage	of	ethanol	varies	

seasonally. The annual average ethanol content of 74 percent is used for this forecast. 9

Includes ethanol and ethers blended into gasoline. 

10Includes	only	kerosene	type.	 11Includes	distillate	fuel	oil	and	kerosene	from	petroleum	and	biomass	feedstocks.	 12Includes	aviation	gasoline,	petrochemical	feedstocks,	lubricants,	waxes,	asphalt,	road	oil,	still	gas,	special	naphthas,	petroleum	coke,	crude	oil	product	supplied,	methanol,	

and miscellaneous petroleum products. 13Includes	energy	for	combined	heat	and	power	plants	that	have	a	non-regulatory	status,	and	small	on-site	generating	systems.	 14Includes consumption of energy by electricity-only and combined heat and power plants that have a regulatory status. 15Balancing	item.	 	 Includes	unaccounted	for	supply,	losses,	and	gains.	 16End-of-year operable capacity. 17Rate is calculated by dividing the gross annual input to atmospheric crude oil distillation units by their operable refining capacity in barrels per calendar day. 

Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. Data for 2011 are model results and may differ slightly from official EIA data reports. 

Sources:	 	 2011	product	supplied	based	on:	 	 U.S.	Energy	Information	Administration	(EIA),	Annual Energy Review 2011,	DOE/EIA-0384(2011)	(Washington,	DC,	September	

2012).	 	 Other	2011	data:	 	 EIA,	Petroleum Supply Annual 2011,	DOE/EIA-0340(2011)/1	(Washington,	DC,	August	2012).	 	Projections:	 	 EIA,	AEO2013	National	Energy	

Modeling	System	runs	LOWPRICE.D031213A,	REF2013.D102312A,	and	HIGHPRICE.D110912A.	
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013 181

Price case comparisons

Table C5. Petroleum product prices

(2011 dollars per gallon, unless otherwise noted)

Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Outlook 2013 

Table C5. Petroleum product prices

(2011 dollars per gallon, unless otherwise noted)

Sector and fuel 2011

Projections 

2020 2030 2040

Low oil 

price Reference High oil price 

Low oil 

price Reference High oil price 

Low oil 

price Reference High oil price 

Crude oil prices (2011 dollars per barrel) 

 Brent spot ...................................................... 111.26 68.90 105.57 155.28 71.90 130.47 191.90 74.90 162.68 237.16

 West Texas Intermediate spot ...................... 94.86 66.90 103.57 153.28 69.90 128.47 189.90 72.90 160.68 235.16

 Average imported refiners acquisition cost1 .. 102.65 66.28 102.19 149.31 68.39 125.64 184.97 70.93 154.96 228.39

Delivered sector product prices 

 Residential 

 Propane .................................................... 2.13 1.85 1.98 2.11 1.93 2.17 2.35 2.01 2.35 2.56

 Distillate fuel oil ........................................ 3.66 2.78 3.73 4.95 2.85 4.34 5.88 2.92 5.07 6.94

 Commercial 

 Distillate fuel oil ........................................ 3.57 2.40 3.34 4.53 2.50 3.93 5.47 2.56 4.65 6.52

 Residual fuel oil ........................................ 2.87 1.46 2.22 3.29 1.56 2.81 4.09 1.64 3.50 5.36

 Residual fuel oil (2011 dollars per barrel) . 120.49 61.38 93.20 138.00 65.63 117.99 171.88 68.87 147.19 225.06

 Industrial2

 Propane .................................................... 1.92 1.56 1.74 1.92 1.67 1.99 2.25 1.76 2.25 2.56

 Distillate fuel oil ........................................ 3.64 2.45 3.39 4.55 2.58 3.97 5.50 2.64 4.69 6.56

 Residual fuel oil ........................................ 2.82 1.81 2.57 3.64 1.90 3.16 4.46 1.98 3.86 5.71

 Residual fuel oil (2011 dollars per barrel) . 118.58 75.90 108.07 153.04 79.88 132.58 187.31 83.04 162.10 239.83

 Transportation 

 Propane .................................................... 2.22 1.94 2.07 2.20 2.02 2.26 2.44 2.10 2.44 2.65

 Ethanol (E85)3 .......................................... 2.42 2.44 2.83 3.41 1.98 2.57 3.57 1.93 2.92 4.24

 Ethanol wholesale price ........................... 2.54 2.79 3.00 3.11 2.39 2.28 2.78 2.33 2.48 3.25

 Motor gasoline4 ........................................ 3.45 2.61 3.32 4.29 2.59 3.67 4.90 2.64 4.32 5.86

 Jet fuel5 .................................................... 3.04 1.96 2.90 4.02 2.07 3.51 4.96 2.18 4.19 6.00

 Diesel fuel (distillate fuel oil)6.................... 3.58 2.71 3.65 4.80 2.85 4.22 5.76 2.92 4.94 6.81

 Residual fuel oil ........................................ 2.67 1.50 2.23 3.18 1.58 2.75 3.96 1.64 3.36 4.90

 Residual fuel oil (2011 dollars per barrel) . 112.11 62.89 93.74 133.76 66.56 115.30 166.23 69.01 141.16 205.61

 Electric power7

 Distillate fuel oil ........................................ 3.23 2.16 3.11 4.33 2.23 3.72 5.25 2.30 4.44 6.32

 Residual fuel oil ........................................ 2.39 2.96 3.73 4.82 3.12 4.39 5.71 3.22 5.17 7.01

 Residual fuel oil (2011 dollars per barrel) . 100.43 124.18 156.82 202.60 131.04 184.59 239.73 135.26 217.18 294.46

 Refined petroleum product prices8

 Propane .................................................... 1.46 0.96 1.16 1.40 1.10 1.53 1.98 1.25 2.00 2.66

 Motor gasoline4 ........................................ 3.42 2.61 3.32 4.29 2.59 3.67 4.90 2.64 4.32 5.86

 Jet fuel5 .................................................... 3.04 1.96 2.90 4.02 2.07 3.51 4.96 2.18 4.19 6.00

 Distillate fuel oil ........................................ 3.59 2.66 3.60 4.76 2.80 4.18 5.71 2.87 4.90 6.77

 Residual fuel oil ........................................ 2.64 1.65 2.39 3.37 1.75 2.93 4.17 1.82 3.59 5.19

 Residual fuel oil (2011 dollars per barrel) . 110.98 69.15 100.39 141.70 73.32 123.16 174.94 76.42 150.58 218.18

 Average ............................................. 3.11 2.30 3.01 3.91 2.35 3.43 4.61 2.44 4.10 5.58
182 U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013

Price case comparisons

Table C5. Petroleum product prices (continued)

(nominal dollars per gallon, unless otherwise noted)

Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Outlook 2013 

Table C5. Petroleum product prices (continued)

(nominal	dollars	per	gallon,	unless	otherwise	noted)

Sector and fuel 2011

Projections 

2020 2030 2040

Low oil 

price Reference High oil price 

Low oil 

price Reference High oil price 

Low oil 

price Reference High oil price 

Crude oil prices (nominal dollars per barrel) 

 Brent spot ...................................................... 111.26 79.61 121.73 177.97 100.62 180.04 260.76 127.14 268.50 382.50

 West Texas Intermediate spot ....................... 94.86 77.30 119.43 175.68 97.82 177.28 258.04 123.74 265.20 379.28

 Average imported refiners acquisition cost1 .. 102.65 76.57 117.84 171.13 95.72 173.38 251.33 120.40 255.76 368.36

Delivered sector product prices 

 Residential 

 Propane .................................................... 2.13 2.14 2.29 2.42 2.70 2.99 3.19 3.41 3.88 4.13

 Distillate fuel oil ......................................... 3.66 3.21 4.30 5.67 3.99 5.98 7.99 4.96 8.37 11.20

 Commercial 

 Distillate fuel oil ......................................... 3.57 2.77 3.86 5.19 3.50 5.42 7.43 4.35 7.68 10.52

 Residual fuel oil ........................................ 2.87 1.69 2.56 3.77 2.19 3.88 5.56 2.78 5.78 8.64

 Industrial2

 Propane .................................................... 1.92 1.80 2.00 2.20 2.33 2.75 3.06 2.99 3.71 4.14

 Distillate fuel oil ......................................... 3.64 2.83 3.91 5.21 3.61 5.48 7.48 4.49 7.74 10.58

 Residual fuel oil ........................................ 2.82 2.09 2.97 4.18 2.66 4.36 6.06 3.36 6.37 9.21

 Transportation 

 Propane .................................................... 2.22 2.24 2.39 2.53 2.83 3.12 3.31 3.56 4.03 4.28

 Ethanol (E85)3 .......................................... 2.42 2.82 3.26 3.90 2.77 3.55 4.85 3.27 4.82 6.84

 Ethanol wholesale price ............................ 2.54 3.22 3.46 3.57 3.35 3.14 3.77 3.96 4.09 5.24

 Motor gasoline4 ......................................... 3.45 3.02 3.83 4.92 3.62 5.06 6.66 4.48 7.13 9.45

 Jet fuel5..................................................... 3.04 2.27 3.35 4.61 2.90 4.85 6.74 3.70 6.92 9.68

 Diesel fuel (distillate fuel oil)6 .................... 3.58 3.13 4.20 5.50 3.99 5.83 7.82 4.95 8.15 10.98

 Residual fuel oil ........................................ 2.67 1.73 2.57 3.65 2.22 3.79 5.38 2.79 5.55 7.90

 Electric power7

 Distillate fuel oil ......................................... 3.23 2.49 3.59 4.96 3.12 5.13 7.14 3.90 7.33 10.20

 Residual fuel oil ........................................ 2.39 3.42 4.31 5.53 4.37 6.06 7.76 5.47 8.53 11.31

 Refined petroleum product prices8

 Propane .................................................... 1.46 1.11 1.34 1.60 1.53 2.11 2.69 2.13 3.30 4.30

 Motor gasoline4 ......................................... 3.42 3.02 3.83 4.92 3.62 5.06 6.66 4.48 7.13 9.45

 Jet fuel5..................................................... 3.04 2.27 3.35 4.61 2.90 4.85 6.74 3.70 6.92 9.68

 Distillate fuel oil ......................................... 3.59 3.08 4.15 5.46 3.92 5.77 7.76 4.87 8.09 10.91

 Residual fuel oil (nominal dollars per barrel) 110.98 79.90 115.76 162.41 102.62 169.95 237.72 129.72 248.53 351.90

 Average ............................................. 3.11 2.66 3.47 4.49 3.28 4.74 6.26 4.14 6.76 9.00

1

Weighted average price delivered to U.S. refiners. 

2

Includes	combined	heat	and	power	plants	that	have	a	non-regulatory	status,	and	small	on-site	generating	systems.	

3

E85 refers to a blend of 85 percent ethanol (renewable) and 15 percent motor gasoline (nonrenewable). To address cold starting	issues,	the	percentage	of	ethanol	varies	

seasonally. The annual average ethanol content of 74 percent is used for this forecast. 4

Sales	weighted-average	price	for	all	grades.	 	 Includes	Federal,	State	and	local	taxes.	

5

Includes	only	kerosene	type.	

6

Diesel	fuel	for	on-road	use.	 	 Includes	Federal	and	State	taxes	while	excluding	county	and	local	taxes.	

7

Includes electricity-only and combined heat and power plants that have a regulatory status. 

8

Weighted averages of end-use fuel prices are derived from the prices in each sector and the corresponding sectoral consumption.

Note: Data for 2011 are model results and may differ slightly from official EIA data reports. 

Sources:	 	 2011	prices	for	motor	gasoline,	distillate	fuel	oil,	and	jet	fuel	are	based	on:	 	 Energy	Information	Administration	(EIA),	Petroleum Marketing Monthly,

DOE/EIA-0380(2012/08)	(Washington,	DC,	August	2012).	 	 2011	crude	oil	spot	prices:	 	 Thomson	Reuters.	 	 2011	residential,	commercial,	industrial,	and	transportation	sector	

petroleum	product	prices	are	derived	from:	 	 EIA,	Form	EIA-782A,	“Refiners’/Gas	Plant	Operators’	Monthly	Petroleum	Product	Sales Report.” 2011 electric power prices based on: Monthly Energy Review,	DOE/EIA-0035(2012/09)	(Washington,	DC,	September	2012).	 	 2011	E85	prices	derived	from	monthly	prices	in	the	Clean	Cities	Alternative	Fuel	

Price	Report.	 	 2011	wholesale	ethanol	prices	derived	from	Bloomberg	U.S.	average	rack	price.	 	Projections:	 	 EIA,	AEO2013	National	Energy	Modeling	System	runs	

LOWPRICE.D031213A,	REF2013.D102312A,	and	HIGHPRICE.D110912A.	
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013 183

Price case comparisons

Table C6. International liquids supply and disposition summary

(million barrels per day, unless otherwise noted)

Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Outlook 2013 

Table C6. International liquids supply and disposition summary

(million	barrels	per	day, unless otherwise noted)

Supply and disposition 2011

Projections 

2020 2030 2040

Low oil 

price Reference High oil price 

Low oil 

price Reference High oil price 

Low oil 

price Reference High oil price 

Crude oil spot prices 

 (2011 dollars per barrel)

 Brent ............................................................. 111.26 68.90 105.57 155.28 71.90 130.47 191.90 74.90 162.68 237.16

 West Texas Intermediate .............................. 94.86 66.90 103.57 153.28 69.90 128.47 189.90 72.90 160.68 235.16

 (nominal dollars per barrel) 

 Brent ............................................................. 111.26 79.61 121.73 177.97 100.62 180.04 260.76 127.14 268.50 382.50

 West Texas Intermediate .............................. 94.86 77.30 119.43 175.68 97.82 177.28 258.04 123.74 265.20 379.28

Liquids consumption1

 OECD 

 United States (50 states) .......................... 18.68 20.00 19.49 18.84 19.55 18.72 17.73 20.20 18.64 17.53

 United States territories ............................ 0.28 0.37 0.32 0.29 0.43 0.36 0.32 0.47 0.37 0.33

 Canada ..................................................... 2.29 2.35 2.21 2.11 2.37 2.18 2.14 2.48 2.30 2.39

 Mexico and Chile ...................................... 2.41 2.81 2.66 2.57 3.30 3.05 3.01 3.82 3.47 3.51

 OECD Europe2 ......................................... 14.28 14.59 13.81 13.19 15.21 13.96 13.31 15.99 14.21 13.54

 Japan ....................................................... 4.46 4.75 4.41 4.15 4.73 4.25 3.96 4.54 3.94 3.64

 South Korea ............................................. 2.32 2.75 2.56 2.41 3.01 2.66 2.53 3.26 2.74 2.66

 Australia and New Zealand ...................... 1.12 1.23 1.19 1.13 1.30 1.22 1.16 1.46 1.30 1.23

 Total OECD ....................................... 45.83 48.85 46.63 44.69 49.90 46.40 44.15 52.21 46.96 44.82

 Non-OECD 

 Russia ...................................................... 3.13 3.77 3.53 3.37 4.12 3.83 3.67 4.25 3.95 3.86

 Other Europe and Eurasia3 ...................... 2.27 2.54 2.38 2.31 2.90 2.63 2.56 3.45 3.07 3.02

 China ........................................................ 9.85 13.00 13.29 13.23 13.79 15.58 17.21 13.83 17.59 22.13

 India ......................................................... 3.28 4.30 4.27 4.24 5.27 5.61 6.33 5.75 6.81 9.40

 Other Asia4 ............................................... 6.87 8.00 7.88 7.65 9.09 9.30 9.35 10.20 11.25 11.72

 Middle East............................................... 7.51 8.56 8.40 8.16 8.81 8.92 9.03 9.07 9.78 10.57

 Africa ........................................................ 3.31 3.78 3.63 3.47 4.10 4.05 3.96 4.29 4.49 4.43

 Brazil ........................................................ 2.59 3.15 3.01 2.83 3.34 3.37 3.34 3.54 4.00 4.27

 Other Central and South America ............ 3.37 3.73 3.42 3.44 4.09 3.71 3.73 4.45 4.02 4.09

 Total non-OECD ................................ 42.18 50.82 49.82 48.69 55.51 57.00 59.16 58.84 64.97 73.49

Total liquids consumption .............................. 88.01 99.67 96.45 93.38 105.41 103.41 103.31 111.05 111.93 118.31

Liquids production 

 OPEC5

 Middle East .......................................... 25.40 30.13 26.65 24.08 33.47 29.88 28.47 39.68 35.09 34.24

 North Africa .......................................... 2.39 3.65 3.27 3.00 3.75 3.48 3.33 4.22 3.96 3.87

 West Africa .......................................... 4.31 5.73 5.33 4.80 6.28 5.61 5.33 6.78 5.89 5.70

 South America ..................................... 2.99 3.41 3.09 3.03 3.44 3.01 3.05 3.80 3.20 3.27

 Total OPEC .................................... 35.08 42.92 38.34 34.90 46.94 41.98 40.17 54.49 48.13 47.08

 Non-OPEC 

 OECD 

 United States (50 states) ..................... 10.11 12.23 12.74 13.11 10.53 11.42 12.28 9.81 11.67 12.74

 Canada ................................................ 3.66 5.20 5.09 6.01 6.15 5.91 7.25 5.73 6.14 7.78

 Mexico and Chile ................................. 2.99 1.93 1.96 1.92 1.69 1.98 1.96 1.58 2.12 2.15

 OECD Europe2 .................................... 4.19 3.38 3.38 3.28 2.90 2.84 2.76 3.51 3.36 3.56

 Japan ................................................... 0.18 0.18 0.17 0.17 0.19 0.18 0.19 0.20 0.19 0.20

 Australia and New Zealand .................. 0.58 0.54 0.54 0.53 0.56 0.56 0.55 0.79 0.87 0.90

 Total OECD .................................... 21.71 23.46 23.88 25.02 22.03 22.90 24.99 21.62 24.35 27.33

 Non-OECD 

 Russia.................................................. 10.23 10.29 10.75 10.80 10.76 11.43 11.45 10.53 11.48 11.88

 Other Europe and Eurasia3 .................. 3.26 4.15 4.20 4.00 4.17 4.85 4.58 3.33 5.24 5.27

 China ................................................... 4.34 4.56 4.59 4.58 5.43 5.50 5.82 5.24 5.42 8.36

 Other Asia4 .......................................... 3.74 3.52 3.55 3.46 3.09 3.09 3.02 2.89 2.87 2.96

 Middle East .......................................... 1.43 1.21 1.23 1.19 1.08 1.09 1.05 0.89 0.89 0.89

 Africa ................................................... 2.68 3.02 3.08 3.00 3.03 3.10 3.01 3.11 3.18 3.24

 Brazil.................................................... 2.53 4.52 4.35 4.51 6.72 6.96 7.14 6.53 7.61 8.82

 Other Central and South America ........ 2.17 2.38 2.40 2.32 2.42 2.46 2.38 2.65 2.69 2.82

 Total non-OECD ............................ 30.39 33.65 34.15 33.87 36.69 38.47 38.46 35.17 39.37 44.24

Total liquids production .................................. 87.18 100.03 96.38 93.79 105.65 103.35 103.62 111.29 111.85 118.65

OPEC	liquids	market	share	(percent)	................		 40.2 42.9 39.8 37.2 44.4 40.6 38.8	 49.0	 43.0 39.7
184 U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013

Price case comparisons

Table C6. International liquids supply and disposition summary (continued)

(million barrels per day, unless otherwise noted)

Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Outlook 2013 

Table C6. International liquids supply and disposition summary (continued)

(million	barrels	per	day, unless otherwise noted)

Supply and disposition 2011

Projections 

2020 2030 2040

Low oil 

price Reference High oil price 

Low oil 

price Reference High oil price 

Low oil 

price Reference High oil price 

Selected world liquids production subtotals: 

 Petroleum6

 Crude oil and equivalents7........................ 74.08 84.06 80.28 77.15 87.05 85.26 84.30 90.27 90.90 94.50

 Tight oil ................................................ 1.27 3.53 3.83 3.99 4.39 4.91 5.34 4.73 6.10 7.97

 Bitumen8 .............................................. 1.74 3.18 3.00 3.87 4.29 3.95 5.19 3.99 4.26 5.71

 Natural gas plant liquids ........................... 8.66 10.46 10.88 10.96 11.24 11.75 11.88 12.07 12.88 13.04

 Refinery processing gain9......................... 2.28 2.35 2.20 2.14 2.64 2.50 2.43 2.94 2.82 2.72

 Liquids from renewable sources10 ................. 1.33 2.31 2.08 2.38 3.51 2.49 3.14 4.69 2.93 4.99

 Liquids from coal11 ........................................ 0.18 0.36 0.40 0.58 0.76 0.95 1.24 0.86 1.19 2.62

 Liquids from natural gas12 ............................. 0.12 0.30 0.39 0.37 0.32 0.48 0.49 0.31 0.55 0.65

	 	 	 Liquids	from	kerogen13 .................................. 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01

Petroleum production6

 OPEC5

 Middle East .......................................... 25.34 29.93 26.44 23.89 33.24 29.64 28.25 39.45 34.84 34.01

 North Africa .......................................... 2.39 3.65 3.27 3.00 3.75 3.48 3.33 4.22 3.96 3.87

 West Africa .......................................... 4.31 5.70 5.30 4.77 6.25 5.58 5.30 6.75 5.86 5.67

 South America ..................................... 2.99 3.41 3.09 3.03 3.44 3.01 3.05 3.80 3.20 3.27

 Total OPEC .................................... 35.03 42.69 38.10 34.70 46.68 41.71 39.93 54.24 47.86 46.83

 Non-OPEC 

 OECD 

 United States (50 states) ..................... 9.25 11.22 11.64 11.96 9.49 10.21 10.98 8.55 10.08 10.78

 Canada ................................................ 3.64 5.17 5.07 5.98 6.09 5.87 7.20 5.65 6.10 7.70

 Mexico and Chile ................................. 2.99 1.93 1.96 1.92 1.69 1.98 1.96 1.58 2.12 2.15

 OECD Europe2 .................................... 3.98 3.16 3.16 3.05 2.60 2.60 2.50 3.09 3.09 3.13

 Japan ................................................... 0.17 0.17 0.16 0.16 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.18

 Australia and New Zealand .................. 0.57 0.53 0.53 0.52 0.54 0.55 0.54 0.77 0.86 0.89

 Total OECD .................................... 20.60 22.18 22.52 23.60 20.60 21.39 23.36 19.83 22.43 24.82

 Non-OECD 

 Russia.................................................. 10.23 10.29 10.75 10.80 10.76 11.42 11.45 10.53 11.47 11.88

 Other Europe and Eurasia3 .................. 3.25 4.14 4.19 3.99 4.16 4.84 4.58 3.32 5.23 5.26

 China ................................................... 4.30 4.41 4.44 4.30 4.73 4.83 4.86 4.33 4.52 5.96

 Other Asia4 .......................................... 3.67 3.40 3.42 3.32 2.87 2.88 2.79 2.65 2.65 2.67

 Middle East .......................................... 1.43 1.21 1.23 1.19 1.08 1.09 1.05 0.89 0.89 0.89

 Africa ................................................... 2.47 2.72 2.75 2.66 2.72 2.74 2.64 2.80 2.82 2.83

 Brazil.................................................... 2.25 3.52 3.57 3.44 5.03 5.92 5.68 4.20 6.48 6.44

 Other Central and South America ........ 2.09 2.30 2.33 2.24 2.31 2.38 2.29 2.50 2.60 2.66

 Total non-OECD ............................ 29.69 32.00 32.69 31.95 33.65 36.11 35.32 31.21 36.66 38.60

Total petroleum production ............................ 85.31 96.87 93.32 90.24 100.93 99.20 98.61 105.28 106.96 110.25

OPEC	petroleum	market	share	(percent)...........		 41.1 44.1 40.8 38.4 46.2 42.0 40.5	 51.5	 44.7 42.5

1

Includes	both	OPEC	and	non-OPEC	consumers	in	the	regional	breakdown.

2

OECD	Europe	 =	Organization	for	Economic	Cooperation	and	Development	 -	Austria,	Belgium,	Czech	Republic,	Denmark,	Estonia,	Finland,	France,	Germany,	Greece,	

Hungary,	Iceland,	Ireland,	Italy,	Luxembourg,	the	Netherlands,	Norway,	Poland,	Portugal,	Slovakia,	Slovenia,	Spain,	Sweden,	Switzerland,	Turkey,	and	the	United	Kingdom.	 3

Other	 Europe	 and	 Eurasia	 =	 Albania,	 Armenia,	 Azerbaijan,	 Belarus,	 Bosnia	 and	 Herzegovina,	 Bulgaria,	 Croatia,	 Georgia,	 Kazakhstan,	 Kyrgyzstan,	 Latvia,	 Lithuania,	

Macedonia,	Malta,	Moldova,	Montenegro,	Romania,	Serbia,	Tajikistan,	Turkmenistan,	Ukraine,	and	Uzbekistan.	 4

Other	Asia	=	Afghanistan,	Bangladesh,	Bhutan,	Brunei,	Cambodia	 (Kampuchea),	Fiji,	French	Polynesia,	Guam,	Hong	Kong,	Indonesia,	Kiribati,	Laos,	Malaysia,	Macau,	

Maldives,	Mongolia,	Myanmar	(Burma),	Nauru,	Nepal,	New	Caledonia,	Niue,	North	Korea,	Pakistan,	Papua	New	Guinea,	Philippines,	Samoa,	Singapore,	Solomon	Islands,	Sri	

Lanka,	Taiwan,	Thailand,	Tonga,	Vanuatu,	and	Vietnam.	 5

OPEC	=	Organization	of	Petroleum	Exporting	Countries	-	Algeria,	Angola,	Ecuador,	Iran,	Iraq,	Kuwait,	Libya,	Nigeria,	Qatar,	Saudi	Arabia,	the	United	Arab	Emirates,	and	

Venezuela. 6

Includes	production	of	crude	oil	(including	lease	condensate,	tight	oil	(shale	oil),	extra-heavy	oil,	and	bitumen	(oil	sands)),	natural	gas	plant	liquids,	refinery	gains,	and	other	

hydrogen	and	hydrocarbons	for	refinery	feedstocks.	 7

Includes	crude	oil,	lease	condensate,	tight	oil	(shale	oil),	extra-heavy	oil,	and	bitumen	(oil	sands).	

8

Includes diluted and upgraded/synthetic bitumen (syncrude). 

9

The	volumetric	amount	by	which	total	output	is	greater	than	input	due	to	the	processing	of	crude	oil	into	products	which,	in	total,	have	a	lower	specific	gravity	than	the	crude	

oil processed. 10Includes liquids produced from energy crops. 11Includes	liquids	converted	from	coal	via	the	Fischer-Tropsch	coal-to-liquids	process.	 12Includes	liquids	converted	from	natural	gas	via	the	Fischer-Tropsch	natural-gas-to-liquids	process.	 13Includes	liquids	produced	from	kerogen	(oil	shale,	not	to	be	confused	with	tight	oil	(shale	oil).	

Note: Ethanol is represented in motor gasoline equivalent barrels. Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. Data for 2011 are model results 

and may differ slightly from official EIA data reports. 

Sources: 2011 crude oil spot prices: Thomson Reuters. 2011 quantities and projections:	 	 Energy	Information	Administration	(EIA),	AEO2013	National	Energy	

Modeling	System	runs	LOWPRICE.D031213A,	REF2013.D102312A,	and	HIGHPRICE.D110912A	and	EIA,	Generate	World	Oil	Balance	Model.	
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186 U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013

Table D1. Key results for demand sector technology cases

Consumption, emissions, combined heat and 

power capacity and generation 2011

2020 2030 

2012

Demand

Technology

Reference

High 

Demand

Technology

Best

Available

Demand

Technology

2012

Demand

Technology 

Reference

High 

Demand

Technology

Best

Available

Demand

Technology

Energy consumption (quadrillion Btu) 

 Residential 

 Liquid fuels and other petroleum1 ............ 1.14 1.07 1.05 1.02 0.99 0.98 0.93 0.88 0.84

 Natural gas ............................................... 4.83 4.73 4.62 4.36 4.03 4.70 4.46 4.00 3.48

 Coal ......................................................... 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00

 Renewable energy2 .................................. 0.45 0.46 0.44 0.42 0.40 0.50 0.45 0.41 0.37

 Electricity .................................................. 4.86 4.92 4.84 4.44 3.95 5.54 5.36 4.75 4.02

Total residential ................................. 11.28 11.18 10.95 10.25 9.38 11.72 11.20 10.04 8.72

	 	 	 Nonmarketed	renewables,	residential	......		 0.04	 0.18 0.20 0.20 0.23 0.19	 0.22	 0.27 0.38

 

 Commercial 

 Liquid fuels and other petroleum3 ............ 0.69 0.65 0.65 0.66 0.66 0.64 0.64 0.64 0.64

 Natural gas ............................................... 3.23 3.37 3.40 3.37 3.39 3.46 3.50 3.46 3.50

 Coal ......................................................... 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05

 Renewable energy4 .................................. 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13

 Electricity .................................................. 4.50 4.86 4.72 4.36 4.11 5.52 5.22 4.44 4.11

Total commercial ............................... 8.60 9.06 8.95 8.56 8.34 9.80 9.54 8.71 8.42

	 	 	 Nonmarketed	renewables,	commercial	....		 0.11	 0.20 0.20 0.23 0.23 0.22	 0.24	 0.32 0.33

 

 Industrial5 

 Liquefied petroleum gases ....................... 2.10 2.46 2.46 2.47 2.51 2.48 2.47 2.49 2.57

 Propylene ................................................. 0.40 0.54 0.56 0.58 0.59 0.50 0.52 0.54 0.55

 Distillate fuel oil ........................................ 1.21 1.38 1.22 1.16 1.21 1.49 1.18 1.07 1.16

	 	 	 Petrochemical	feedstocks	........................		 0.88	 1.04 1.03 1.02 1.01 1.11	 1.08	 1.06 1.06

 Other petroleum6 ...................................... 4.00 4.14 3.97 3.84 3.92 4.20 3.89 3.69 3.87

 Liquid fuels and other petroleum ......... 8.57 9.57 9.25 9.06 9.23 9.78 9.14 8.85 9.21

 Natural gas ............................................... 8.34 9.89 9.56 9.61 9.60 10.74 9.91 9.93 9.95

 Coal ......................................................... 1.62 1.65 1.58 1.56 1.59 1.64 1.57 1.55 1.60

 Renewable energy7 .................................. 2.18 2.50 2.53 2.56 2.54 2.74 2.82 2.94 2.84

 Electricity .................................................. 3.33 4.09 3.95 3.86 3.97 4.33 3.96 3.82 4.07

Total industrial .................................. 24.04 27.71 26.87 26.66 26.93 29.23 27.40 27.08 27.66

 

 Transportation 

 E858 ......................................................... 0.05 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.09 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16

 Motor gasoline9 ........................................ 16.31 14.87 14.88 14.79 14.85 13.04 13.06 13.04 13.08

 Jet fuel ..................................................... 3.01 3.11 3.11 3.10 3.11 3.28 3.28 3.24 3.28

 Distillate fuel oil ........................................ 5.91 7.29 7.28 7.04 7.22 7.65 7.61 7.23 7.50

 Other petroleum10 .................................... 1.05 1.06 1.06 1.06 1.06 1.08 1.08 1.07 1.08

 Liquid fuels and other petroleum ......... 26.32 26.41 26.42 26.07 26.34 25.22 25.20 24.74 25.11

 Pipeline fuel natural gas ........................... 0.70 0.73 0.71 0.69 0.69 0.78 0.74 0.70 0.69

 Compressed / liquefied natural gas .......... 0.04 0.07 0.08 0.07 0.08 0.22 0.26 0.21 0.35

 Liquid hydrogen ....................................... 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

 Electricity .................................................. 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.05

Total transportation .......................... 27.09 27.25 27.24 26.87 27.13 26.27 26.25 25.70 26.19

 

 Electric power11 

 Distillate and residual fuel oil .................... 0.30 0.18 0.18 0.16 0.15 0.19 0.18 0.16 0.15

 Natural gas ............................................... 7.76 8.60 8.40 7.97 7.97 9.91 9.08 7.58 7.41

 Steam coal ............................................... 17.99 17.74 16.95 15.13 13.28 18.89 18.07 16.01 13.99

 Nuclear / uranium12 .................................. 8.26 9.25 9.25 9.16 9.11 9.54 9.49 9.41 9.36

 Renewable energy13 ................................ 4.74 5.58 5.49 5.27 5.12 6.46 5.93 5.57 5.31

 Net electricity imports ............................... 0.13 0.09 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.05 0.05 0.03 0.03

Total electric power14 ........................ 39.40 41.67 40.57 37.99 35.93 45.27 43.02 38.99 36.47

 

Total energy consumption 

 Liquid fuels and other petroleum .............. 37.02 37.88 37.54 36.97 37.37 36.80 36.08 35.28 35.94

 Natural gas ............................................... 24.91 27.39 26.77 26.07 25.74 29.82 27.95 25.87 25.37

 Steam coal ............................................... 19.66 19.46 18.59 16.75 14.92 20.58 19.70 17.61 15.65

 Nuclear / uranium12 .................................. 8.26 9.25 9.25 9.16 9.11 9.54 9.49 9.41 9.36

 Renewable energy15 ................................ 7.49 8.67 8.58 8.38 8.18 9.82 9.31 9.05 8.64

 Other16 ..................................................... 0.35 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.28 0.28 0.26 0.26

Total energy consumption ............... 97.70 102.96 101.04 97.63 95.64 106.85 102.81 97.46 95.22

Appendix D

Results from side cases

Table D1. Key results for demand sector technology cases
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013 187

Results from side cases

2040 Annual Growth 2011-2040 (percent) 

2012 Demand

Technology Reference High DemandTechnology 

Best

Available

Demand

Technology 

2012 Demand

Technology Reference High DemandTechnology

Best

Available

Demand

Technology

0.93 0.86 0.80 0.75 -0.7% -1.0% -1.2% -1.4%

4.61 4.23 3.70 3.12 -0.2% -0.5% -0.9% -1.5%

0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.3% -0.9% -1.3% -1.6%

0.53 0.45 0.40 0.34 0.6% 0.1% -0.4% -0.9%

6.27 6.03 5.34 4.39 0.9% 0.7% 0.3% -0.3%

12.35 11.57 10.24 8.61 0.3% 0.1% -0.3% -0.9%

0.20 0.27 0.41 0.70 5.9% 6.9% 8.5% 10.5%

0.63 0.63 0.63 0.63 -0.3% -0.3% -0.3% -0.3%

3.59 3.68 3.65 3.68 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.5%

0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

6.06 5.72 4.63 4.22 1.0% 0.8% 0.1% -0.2%

10.46 10.21 9.09 8.71 0.7% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0%

0.26 0.32 0.50 0.57 2.8% 3.7% 5.2% 5.7%

2.38 2.30 2.26 2.34 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.4%

0.46 0.46 0.47 0.47 0.5% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6%

1.64 1.22 1.09 1.19 1.1% 0.0% -0.4% 0.0%

1.11 1.09 1.06 1.07 0.8% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7%

4.49 4.08 3.84 4.05 0.4% 0.1% -0.1% 0.0%

10.08 9.16 8.72 9.12 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2%

11.65 10.38 10.22 10.26 1.2% 0.8% 0.7% 0.7%

1.67 1.61 1.60 1.63 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

3.48 3.65 3.89 3.67 1.6% 1.8% 2.0% 1.8%

4.63 3.91 3.69 4.00 1.1% 0.6% 0.4% 0.6%

31.52 28.71 28.12 28.68 0.9% 0.6% 0.5% 0.6%

0.15 0.17 0.18 0.18 3.9% 4.3% 4.7% 4.6%

12.67 12.64 12.64 12.64 -0.9% -0.9% -0.9% -0.9%

3.42 3.42 3.29 3.42 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.4%

8.05 7.90 7.52 7.67 1.1% 1.0% 0.8% 0.9%

1.12 1.11 1.10 1.11 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%

25.40 25.24 24.74 25.02 -0.1% -0.1% -0.2% -0.2%

0.81 0.78 0.72 0.72 0.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1%

0.96 1.05 0.80 1.20 11.5% 11.9% 10.8% 12.4%

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 - - - - - - - -

0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 3.9% 3.9% 3.9% 3.9%

27.25 27.14 26.34 27.01 0.0% 0.0% -0.1% 0.0%

0.20 0.19 0.17 0.16 -1.4% -1.6% -1.9% -2.2%

9.99 9.70 8.13 7.86 0.9% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0%

19.57 18.68 16.63 14.23 0.3% 0.1% -0.3% -0.8%

10.22 9.44 8.99 8.89 0.7% 0.5% 0.3% 0.3%

9.35 7.44 6.12 5.91 2.4% 1.6% 0.9% 0.8%

0.09 0.06 0.04 0.04 -1.3% -2.4% -3.9% -3.9%

49.64 45.73 40.31 37.32 0.8% 0.5% 0.1% -0.2%

37.23 36.07 35.06 35.67 0.0% -0.1% -0.2% -0.1%

31.62 29.83 27.22 26.84 0.8% 0.6% 0.3% 0.3%

21.29 20.35 18.29 15.91 0.3% 0.1% -0.2% -0.7%

10.22 9.44 8.99 8.89 0.7% 0.5% 0.3% 0.3%

13.49 11.66 10.54 10.05 2.0% 1.5% 1.2% 1.0%

0.32 0.29 0.27 0.27 -0.4% -0.6% -0.9% -0.9%

114.18 107.64 100.37 97.64 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
188 U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013

Results from side cases

Table D1. Key results for demand sector technology cases (continued)

Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Outlook 2013 3

Table D1. Key results for demand sector technology cases (continued)

Consumption, emissions, combined heat and 

power capacity and generation 2011

2020 2030 

2012

Demand

Technology

Reference

High 

Demand

Technology

Best

Available

Demand

Technology

2012

Demand

Technology 

Reference

High 

Demand

Technology

Best

Available

Demand

Technology

Carbon dioxide emissions 

(million metric tons) 

 by sector 

 Residential ............................................... 335 324 317 301 282 316 299 272 241

 Commercial .............................................. 225 230 232 230 232 234 236 234 236

 Industrial5 ................................................. 905	 1,039 999 988 996 1,086	 1,005	 987 1,007

	 	 	 Transportation	..........................................		 1,841	 1,827 1,826 1,801 1,819 1,761	 1,759	 1,721 1,754

 Electric power11 ........................................ 2,166	 2,167 2,081 1,884 1,707 2,347	 2,224	 1,947 1,746

 by fuel 

 Petroleum17 .............................................. 2,299	 2,287 2,270 2,232 2,254 2,206	 2,169	 2,116 2,153

 Natural gas ...............................................		 1,294	 1,437 1,404 1,367 1,349 1,567	 1,468	 1,357 1,331

	 	 	 Coal	.........................................................		 1,867	 1,851 1,769 1,595 1,421 1,959	 1,874	 1,676 1,489

 Other18 ..................................................... 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11

Total carbon dioxide emissions ....... 5,471 5,587 5,455 5,205 5,035 5,743 5,523 5,161 4,984

 

Residential delivered energy intensity 

(million Btu per household) ........................... 97 88 86 80 74 83 80 71 62

Commercial delivered energy intensity 

(thousand Btu per square foot) ..................... 105 102 100 96 94 100 97 89 86

Industrial delivered energy intensity 

(thousand Btu per 2005 dollars).................... 3.99 3.53 3.42 3.40 3.43 3.23 3.04 3.01 3.06

 

Residential sector generation 

Net summer generation capacity 

(megawatts) 

 Natural gas ........................................ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

	 	 	 	 	 	 	 Solar	photovoltaic	..............................		 1,036	 8,291 8,976 9,446 10,335 8,686	 10,289	 13,004 19,236

 Wind .................................................. 108 302 750 762 809 302 750 762 809

Electricity generation 

(billion kilowatthours) 

 Natural gas ........................................ 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

 Solar photovoltaic .............................. 1.63 12.72 14.01 14.75 16.14 13.35 16.10 20.53 30.54

 Wind .................................................. 0.15 0.43 1.08 1.09 1.16 0.43 1.08 1.09 1.16

 

Commercial sector generation 

Net summer generation capacity 

(megawatts) 

	 	 	 	 	 	 	 Natural	gas	........................................		 843	 1,478 1,609 2,107 2,220 2,696	 3,734	 5,284 5,764

	 	 	 	 	 	 	 Solar	photovoltaic	..............................		 1,975	 6,604 6,646 6,692 6,770 7,698	 8,644	 9,203 10,237

 Wind .................................................. 97 108 118 120 124 132 302 283 309

Electricity generation 

(billion kilowatthours) 

 Natural gas ........................................ 6.13 10.75 11.70 15.32 16.15 19.61 27.16 38.44 41.93

 Solar photovoltaic .............................. 3.07 10.34 10.50 10.57 10.70 12.08 13.79 14.72 16.39

 Wind .................................................. 0.12 0.14 0.15 0.16 0.16 0.17 0.43 0.40 0.44

1

Includes	propane,	kerosene,	and	distillate	fuel	oil.

2

Includes wood used for residential heating. 

3

Includes	propane,	motor	gasoline	(including	ethanol	(blends	of	15	percent	or	less)	and	ethers	blended	in),	kerosene,	distillate	fuel	oil,	and	residual	fuel	oil.	 4

Includes	commercial	sector	consumption	of	wood	and	wood	waste,	landfill	gas,	municipal	solid	waste,	and	other	biomass	for	combined heat and power. 5

Includes	energy	for	combined	heat	and	power	plants	that	have	a	non-regulatory	status,	and	small	on-site	generating	systems.	

6

Includes	motor	gasoline	(including	ethanol	(blends	of	15	percent	or	less)	and	ethers	blended	in),	residual	fuel	oil,	petroleum	coke,	asphalt,	road	oil,	lubricants,	still	gas,	and	

miscellaneous petroleum products. 7

Includes	consumption	of	energy	produced	from	hydroelectric,	wood	and	wood	waste,	municipal	waste,	and	other	biomass	sources.	 	 Excludes ethanol. 8

E85 refers to a blend of 85 percent ethanol (renewable) and 15 percent motor gasoline (nonrenewable). To address cold starting	issues,	the	percentage	of	ethanol	varies	

seasonally. The annual average ethanol content of 74 percent is used for this forecast. 9

Includes ethanol (blends of 15 percent or less) and ethers blended into gasoline.

10Includes	propane,	residual	fuel	oil,	aviation	gasoline,	and	lubricants.	 11Includes consumption of energy by electricity-only and combined heat and power plants that have a regulatory status. 12These values represent the energy obtained from uranium when it is used in light water reactors. The total energy content of uranium	 is	much	 larger,	 but	 alternative	

processes	are	required	to	take	advantage	of	it.	 13Includes	conventional	hydroelectric,	geothermal,	wood	and	wood	waste,	biogenic	municipal	waste,	other	biomass,	wind,	photovoltaic,	and	solar	thermal	sources.	 	 Excludes	

net electricity imports. 14Includes non-biogenic municipal waste not included above. 15Includes	conventional	hydroelectric,	geothermal,	wood	and	wood	waste,	biogenic	municipal	waste,	other	biomass,	wind,	photovoltaic,	and	solar	thermal	sources.	 	 Excludes	

ethanol,	net	electricity	imports,	and	nonmarketed	renewable	energy	consumption	for	geothermal	heat	pumps,	buildings	photovoltaic	systems,	and	solar	thermal	water	heaters.	 16Includes	non-biogenic	municipal	waste,	liquid	hydrogen,	and	net	electricity	imports. 17This	includes	carbon	dioxide	from	international	bunker	fuels,	both	civilian	and	military,	which	are	excluded	from	the	accounting of carbon dioxide emissions under the United 

Nations	convention.	 	 From	1990	through	2009,	international	bunker	fuels	accounted	for	90	to	126	million	metric	tons	annually.	 18Includes emissions from geothermal power and nonbiogenic emissions from municipal waste. 

Btu = British thermal unit. 

- - = Not applicable. 

Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. Data for 2011 are model results and may differ slightly from official EIA data reports. 

Source:	 	 U.S.	Energy	Information	Administration,	AEO2013	National	Energy	Modeling	System,	runs	FROZTECH.D120712A,	REF2013.D102312A,	HIGHTECH.D120712A,	

and BESTTECH.D121012A.
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013 189

Results from side cases

4 Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Outlook 2013 

2040 Annual Growth 2011-2040 (percent) 

2012 Demand

Technology Reference High DemandTechnology 

Best

Available

Demand

Technology 

2012 Demand

Technology Reference High DemandTechnology

Best

Available

Demand

Technology

307 282 250 215 -0.3% -0.6% -1.0% -1.5%

240 245 243 245 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3%

1,157	 1,040	 1,011	 1,033	 0.8% 0.5% 0.4% 0.5%

1,818	 1,809	 1,756	 1,796	 0.0% -0.1% -0.2% -0.1%

2,416	 2,315	 2,036	 1,792	 0.4% 0.2% -0.2% -0.7%

2,236	 2,175	 2,114	 2,145	 -0.1% -0.2% -0.3% -0.2%

1,665	 1,569	 1,431	 1,411	 0.9% 0.7% 0.3% 0.3%

2,025	 1,936	 1,739	 1,514	 0.3% 0.1% -0.2% -0.7%

11 11 11 11 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

5,938 5,691 5,296 5,081 0.3% 0.1% -0.1% -0.3%

81 76 67 56 -0.6% -0.9% -1.3% -1.9%

96 94 84 80 -0.3% -0.4% -0.8% -0.9%

2.97 2.74 2.72 2.76 -1.0% -1.3% -1.3% -1.3%

2 2 2 2 - - - - - - - -

9,649	 12,927	 20,651	 37,759	 8.0% 9.1% 10.9% 13.2%

303 751 764 818 3.6% 6.9% 7.0% 7.2%

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 - - - - - - - -

14.84 20.38 32.96 60.49 7.9% 9.1% 10.9% 13.3%

0.43 1.08 1.10 1.17 3.7% 7.0% 7.0% 7.3%

4,951	 8,437	 12,017	 12,626	 6.3% 8.3% 9.5% 9.7%

10,091	 12,141	 14,213	 19,129	 5.8% 6.5% 7.0% 8.1%

334 762 765 950 4.4% 7.4% 7.4% 8.2%

36.01 61.37 87.42 91.85 6.3% 8.3% 9.5% 9.7%

15.85 19.56 22.95 30.74 5.8% 6.6% 7.2% 8.3%

0.47 1.07 1.07 1.32 4.7% 7.7% 7.7% 8.5%
190 U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013

Results from side cases

Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Outlook 2013 5

Table D2. Energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions for extended policy cases

Consumption and emissions 2011 

2020 2030 2040 

Reference No Sunset Extended 

Policies Reference No Sunset Extended Policies Reference No Sunset Extended Policies 

Energy consumption by sector 

(quadrillion Btu) 

 Residential ........................................... 11.28 10.95 10.91 10.72 11.20 11.01 10.41 11.57 11.29 10.37

 Commercial .......................................... 8.60 8.95 8.95 8.85 9.54 9.55 9.17 10.21 10.26 9.67

 Industrial1 ............................................. 24.04 26.87 26.90 26.88 27.40 27.51 27.45 28.71 28.98 28.56

 Transportation ...................................... 27.09 27.24 27.23 27.21 26.25 26.25 25.99 27.14 27.17 26.06

 Electric power2 ..................................... 39.40 40.57 40.38 39.64 43.02 42.69 41.16 45.73 45.70 43.63

 Total ............................................... 97.70 101.04 100.89 100.06 102.81 102.62 100.33 107.64 107.92 103.54

Energy consumption by fuel 

(quadrillion Btu) 

 Liquid fuels and other petroleum3......... 37.02 37.54 37.54 37.50 36.08 36.10 35.78 36.07 36.10 34.76

 Natural gas ........................................... 24.91 26.77 26.71 26.60 27.95 27.60 26.82 29.83 28.60 27.54

 Coal ...................................................... 19.66 18.59 18.35 17.84 19.70 19.20 18.45 20.35 19.84 19.00

 Nuclear / uranium ................................. 8.26 9.25 9.25 9.25 9.49 9.49 9.49 9.44 9.08 9.02

 Renewable energy4 .............................. 7.49 8.58 8.74 8.57 9.31 9.98 9.52 11.66 14.03 12.95

 Other5 ................................................... 0.35 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.28 0.26 0.26 0.29 0.28 0.27

 Total ............................................... 97.70 101.04 100.89 100.06 102.81 102.62 100.33 107.64 107.92 103.54

 

Energy intensity (thousand Btu 

 per 2005 dollar of GDP) ........................ 7.35 5.99 5.98 5.94 4.81 4.80 4.70 3.95 3.95 3.80

 

Carbon dioxide emissions by sector 

(million metric tons) 

 Residential ........................................... 335 317 317 315 299 298 285 282 280 256

 Commercial .......................................... 225 232 232 230 236 238 229 245 248 233

 Industrial1 ............................................. 905	 999 1,000 999 1,005 1,009 1,000	 1,040	 1,051 1,025

	 	 	 Transportation	......................................		 1,841	 1,826 1,826 1,824 1,759 1,759 1,742	 1,809	 1,810 1,736

 Electric power2 ..................................... 2,166	 2,081 2,052 2,001 2,224 2,152 2,065	 2,315	 2,187 2,103

 Total ............................................... 5,471 5,455 5,428 5,370 5,523 5,456 5,321 5,691 5,575 5,353

 

Carbon dioxide emissions by fuel 

(million metric tons) 

	 	 	 Petroleum	.............................................		 2,299	 2,270 2,269 2,267 2,169 2,169 2,146	 2,175	 2,173 2,086

	 	 	 Natural	gas	...........................................		 1,294	 1,404 1,401 1,395 1,468 1,449 1,408	 1,569	 1,504 1,448

 Coal ......................................................		 1,867	 1,769 1,746 1,698 1,874 1,826 1,756	 1,936	 1,887 1,807

 Other6 ................................................... 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11

 Total ............................................... 5,471 5,455 5,428 5,370 5,523 5,456 5,321 5,691 5,575 5,353

 

Carbon dioxide emissions 

(tons per person) .................................... 17.5 16.0 15.9 15.8 14.8 14.6 14.3 14.1 13.8 13.2

1

Includes	combined	heat	and	power	plants	that	have	a	non-regulatory	status,	and	small	on-site	generating	systems.	

2

Includes electricity-only and combined heat and power plants that have a regulatory status. 

3

Includes	petroleum-derived	fuels	and	non-petroleum	derived	fuels,	such	as	ethanol	and	biodiesel,	and	coal-based	synthetic	liquids.	 	 Petroleum	coke,	which	is	a	solid,	is	

included. Also included are natural gas plant liquids and crude oil consumed as a fuel. 4

Includes grid-connected electricity from conventional hydroelectric; wood and wood waste; landfill gas; biogenic municipal solid waste; other biomass; wind; photovoltaic and 

solar	thermal	sources;	and	non-electric	energy	from	renewable	sources,	such	as	active	and	passive	solar	systems,	and	wood;	and	both the ethanol and gasoline components of 

E85,	but	not	the	ethanol	component	of	blends	less	than	85	percent.	 	 Excludes	electricity	imports	using	renewable	sources	and	nonmarketed	renewable	energy.	 5

Includes	non-biogenic	municipal	waste,	net	electricity	imports,	and	liquid	hydrogen.	

6

Includes emissions from geothermal power and nonbiogenic emissions from municipal solid waste. 

Btu = British thermal unit. 

GDP = Gross domestic product. 

Note:	 	 Includes	end-use,	fossil	electricity,	and	renewable	technology	assumptions.	 	 Totals	may	not	equal	sum	of	components	due	to independent rounding. Data for 2011 

are model results and may differ slightly from official EIA data reports. 

Source:	 	 U.S.	 Energy	 Information	 Administration,	 AEO2013	 National	 Energy	 Modeling	 System	 runs	 REF2013.D102312A,	 NOSUNSET.D120712A,	 and

EXTENDED.D041713A.

Table D2. Energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions for extended policy cases
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013 191

Results from side cases

6 Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Outlook 2013 

Table D3. Electricity generation and generating capacity in extended policy cases

(gigawatts,	unless	otherwise	noted)

Net summer capacity, generation, 

consumption, and emissions 2011

2020 2030 2040 

Reference No Sunset Extended 

Policies Reference No Sunset Extended Policies Reference No Sunset Extended Policies 

Capacity ................................................................. 1,048.8 1,068.1 1,071.3 1,038.6 1,147.0 1,167.8 1,102.4 1,293.3 1,378.0 1,264.3

 Electric power sector1 ........................................ 1,018.1 1,019.6 1,013.5 980.4 1,085.8 1,070.5 1,005.5	 1,212.3	 1,233.0 1,121.3

 Pulverized coal .............................................. 313.9 271.0 262.4 252.1 270.1 262.1 251.8 271.3 262.1 251.8

 Coal gasification combined-cycle .................. 0.5 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0

 Oil and natural gas steam ............................. 102.7 87.2 84.7 72.9 69.9 64.4 53.6 64.8 56.8 40.9

 Conventional natural gas combined-cycle ..... 205.5 216.7 216.7 216.4 221.8 220.4 219.3 227.6 225.1 222.3

 Advanced natural gas combined-cycle .......... 0.0 2.5 1.6 1.0 42.5 26.2 17.3 86.8 57.4 43.8

 Conventional combustion turbine .................. 138.9 137.8 135.4 133.7 137.1 133.8 130.4 136.9 133.3 130.2

 Advanced combustion turbine ....................... 0.0 14.9 11.2 9.0 42.8 35.7 19.4 74.8 67.0 37.6

 Nuclear / uranium .......................................... 101.1 110.6 110.6 110.6 113.6 113.6 113.6 113.1 108.5 107.8

 Pumped storage ............................................ 22.3 22.3 22.3 22.3 22.3 22.3 22.3 22.3 22.3 22.3

	 	 	 	 	 	 Fuel	cells	.......................................................		 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0	 0.0	 0.0 0.0

 Renewable sources ....................................... 133.1 153.8 166.1 159.9 160.5 188.1 174.6 207.6 294.8 260.6

 Distributed generation ................................... 0.0 0.9 0.6 0.4 3.1 2.0 1.2 5.1 3.6 2.0

 Combined heat and power2 ................................ 30.6 48.5 57.8 58.2 61.1 97.2 96.9 81.0 145.0 143.0

	 	 	 	 	 	 Fossil	fuels	/	other	.........................................		 21.7 24.4 25.3 25.5 32.0 34.8 34.2 43.5 47.6 46.2

 Renewable fuels ............................................ 8.9 24.2 32.5 32.6 29.1 62.4 62.6 37.5 97.4 96.9

Cumulative additions ........................................... 0.0 87.6 103.9 94.8 182.2 219.6 178.6 339.9 443.8 359.4

 Electric power sector1 ........................................ 0.0 69.7 76.7 67.3 151.7 153.0 112.3 289.5 329.4 247.0

 Pulverized coal .............................................. 0.0 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 6.1 4.9 4.9

 Coal gasification combined-cycle .................. 0.0 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5

 Conventional natural gas combined-cycle ..... 0.0 11.4 11.4 11.2 16.5 15.2 14.1 22.4 19.9 17.0

 Advanced natural gas combined-cycle .......... 0.0 2.5 1.6 1.0 42.5 26.2 17.3 86.8 57.4 43.8

 Conventional combustion turbine .................. 0.0 6.1 5.8 5.6 6.1 5.8 5.6 6.1 5.8 5.6

 Advanced combustion turbine ....................... 0.0 14.9 11.2 9.0 42.8 35.7 19.4 74.8 67.0 37.6

 Nuclear / uranium .......................................... 0.0 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 11.0 6.5 5.7

 Renewable sources ....................................... 0.0 21.8 34.2 28.0 28.6 56.2 42.7 75.7 162.9 128.7

 Distributed generation ................................... 0.0 0.9 0.6 0.4 3.1 2.0 1.2 5.1 3.6 2.0

 Combined heat and power2 ................................ 0.0 17.9 27.1 27.5 30.5 66.6 66.2 50.4 114.4 112.4

	 	 	 	 	 	 Fossil	fuels	/	other	.........................................		 0.0 2.7 3.5 3.8 10.3 13.1 12.5 21.8 25.9 24.5

 Renewable fuels ............................................ 0.0 15.2 23.6 23.7 20.2 53.5 53.7 28.6 88.5 87.9

Cumulative retirements ........................................ 0.0 72.7 85.9 109.5 92.0 108.6 133.0 103.4 122.6 151.9

Generation by fuel (billion kilowatthours) .......... 4,093 4,389 4,388 4,317 4,777 4,786 4,613 5,212 5,254 5,026

 Electric power sector1 ........................................ 3,954 4,182 4,162 4,089 4,506 4,446 4,277	 4,842	 4,765 4,548

	 	 	 	 	 	 Coal	...............................................................		 1,715 1,640 1,617 1,570 1,745 1,699 1,635	 1,804	 1,756 1,686

 Petroleum ...................................................... 26 15 15 15 16 15 15 16 16 16

	 	 	 	 	 	 Natural	gas	....................................................		 930 1,078 1,065 1,057 1,221 1,144 1,086	 1,348	 1,122 1,082

 Nuclear / uranium .......................................... 790 885 885 885 908 908 908 903 868 863

 Renewable sources ....................................... 489 559 575 558 602 670 625 754 992 894

 Pumped storage / other ................................. 4 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3

 Distributed generation ................................... 0 3 2 1 10 7 4 13 8 5

 Combined heat and power2 ................................ 139 208 226 228 271 340 336 370 489 478

	 	 	 	 	 	 Fossil	fuels	/	other	......................................... 103 140 145 146 189 205 201 266 290 280

 Renewable fuels ............................................ 36 68 81 82 82 135 136 104 199 198

Average electricity price 

(cents per kilowatthour) ....................................... 9.9 9.4 9.4 9.4 9.7 9.6 9.5 10.8 10.4 10.1

1

Includes electricity-only and combined heat and power plants that have a regulatory status. 

2

Includes combined heat and power plants and electricity-only plants in the commercial and industrial sectors that have a non-regulatory status. Includes small on-site 

generating	systems	in	the	residential,	commercial,	and	industrial	sectors	used	primarily	for	own-use	generation,	but	which	may	also sell some power to the grid. Excludes off-grid 

photovoltaics and other generators not connected to the distribution or transmission systems. 

Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. Data for 2011 are model results and may differ slightly from official EIA data reports. 

Source:	 	 U.S.	 Energy	 Information	 Administration,	 AEO2013	 National	 Energy	 Modeling	 System	 runs	 REF2013.D102312A,	 NOSUNSET.D120712A,	 and

EXTENDED.D041713A.

Table D3. Electricity generation and generating capacity in extended policy cases

(gigawatts, unless otherwise noted)
192 U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013

Results from side cases

Table D4. Key results for nuclear plant cases

(gigawatts, unless otherwise noted)

Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Outlook 2013 7

Table D4. Key results for nuclear plant cases

(gigawatts,	unless	otherwise	noted)

Net summer capacity, generation, 

emissions, and fuel prices 2011

2030 2040 

Low

Nuclear Reference High Nuclear 

Small 

Modular 

Reactor

Low

Nuclear Reference High Nuclear 

Small 

Modular 

Reactor

Capacity

 Coal steam .............................................................. 314.4 273.7 272.1 272.3 271.7 278.7 273.3 273.4 272.7

 Oil and natural gas steam ....................................... 102.7 67.3 69.9 70.4 68.7 62.0 64.8 64.8 65.1

 Combined cycle ...................................................... 205.5 264.4 264.3 258.3 264.0 337.0 314.4 301.3 312.8

 Combustion turbine / diesel ..................................... 138.9 183.5 179.9 179.9 182.1 218.6 211.7 218.1 212.9

 Nuclear / uranium .................................................... 101.1 102.8 113.6 121.9 113.7 62.6 113.1 127.2 115.4

 Pumped storage ...................................................... 22.3 22.3 22.3 22.3 22.3 22.3 22.3 22.3 22.3

	 	 	 Fuel	cells	.................................................................	 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0	 0.0	 0.0 0.0

 Renewable sources................................................. 133.1 160.9 160.5 160.2 160.5 211.3 207.6 202.9 204.9

 Distributed generation ............................................. 0.0 2.6 3.1 3.2 3.1 4.1 5.1 5.3 5.1

 Combined heat and power1 ..................................... 30.6 61.9 61.1 61.1 61.2 83.4 81.0 80.4 81.1

Total ................................................................... 1,048.8 1,139.6 1,147.0 1,149.6 1,147.4 1,280.1 1,293.3 1,295.9 1,292.3

Cumulative additions 

 Coal steam .............................................................. 0.0 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.4 11.4 7.6 7.5 7.5

 Oil and natural gas steam ....................................... 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

 Combined cycle ...................................................... 0.0 59.2 59.0 53.1 58.8 131.8 109.1 96.1 107.6

 Combustion turbine / diesel ..................................... 0.0 51.9 48.9 48.4 51.3 87.0 80.9 86.7 82.5

 Nuclear / uranium .................................................... 0.0 5.5 5.5 13.3 5.6 5.5 11.0 18.7 13.3

 Pumped storage ...................................................... 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

	 	 	 Fuel	cells	.................................................................	 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0	 0.0	 0.0 0.0

 Renewable sources................................................. 0.0 29.0 28.6 28.3 28.6 79.4 75.7 71.0 73.0

 Distributed generation ............................................. 0.0 2.6 3.1 3.2 3.1 4.1 5.1 5.3 5.1

 Combined heat and power1 ..................................... 0.0 31.3 30.5 30.4 30.6 52.8 50.4 49.8 50.5

Total ................................................................... 0.0 186.0 182.2 183.1 184.5 372.0 339.9 335.1 339.5

Cumulative retirements ............................................. 0.0 96.6 92.0 90.3 93.9 142.0 103.4 96.0 103.9

Generation by fuel (billion kilowatthours) 

 Coal .........................................................................	 1,715 1,771 1,745 1,734 1,740 1,846	 1,804	 1,804 1,801

 Petroleum ................................................................ 26 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16

	 	 	 Natural	gas	..............................................................	 930 1,267 1,221 1,181 1,225 1,602	 1,348	 1,272 1,338

 Nuclear / uranium .................................................... 790 824 908 974 909 507	 903	 1,014 921

 Pumped storage / other ........................................... 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

 Renewable sources................................................. 489 599 602 600 601 770 754 741 748

 Distributed generation ............................................. 0 9 10 10 11 12 13 14 14

 Combined heat and power1 ..................................... 139 275 271 272 272 381 370 368 370

Total ................................................................... 4,093 4,764 4,777 4,789 4,775 5,136 5,212 5,231 5,211

Carbon dioxide emissions by the electric 

 power sector (million metric tons)2

 Petroleum ................................................................ 25 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14

 Natural gas .............................................................. 411 500 482 468 483 602 514 489 511

 Coal .........................................................................	 1,718 1,743 1,717 1,707 1,713 1,812	 1,775	 1,776 1,773

 Other3 ...................................................................... 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11

Total ................................................................... 2,166 2,267 2,224 2,201 2,221 2,440 2,315 2,291 2,310

Prices to the electric power sector2

 (2011 dollars per million Btu) 

 Petroleum ................................................................ 17.49 28.20 28.23 28.24 28.18 33.49 33.49 33.47 33.47

 Natural gas .............................................................. 4.77 6.20 6.05 5.95 6.07 9.36 8.38 8.36 8.51

 Coal ......................................................................... 2.38 2.88 2.87 2.86 2.86 3.23 3.20 3.20 3.20

1

Includes combined heat and power plants and electricity-only plants in commercial and industrial sectors that have a non-regulatory status. Includes small on-site generating 

systems	 in	 the	 residential,	 commercial,	 and	 industrial	 sectors	 used	 primarily	 for	 own-use	 generation,	 but	 which	 may	 also	 sell	 some power to the grid. Excludes off-grid 

photovoltaics and other generators not connected to the distribution or transmission systems. 2

Includes electricity-only and combined heat and power plants that have a regulatory status. 

3

Includes emissions from geothermal power and nonbiogenic emissions from municipal solid waste. 

Btu = British thermal unit. 

Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. Data for 2011 are model results and may differ slightly from official EIA data reports. 

Source:	 	 U.S.	Energy	Information	Administration,	AEO2013	National	Energy	Modeling	System	 runs	LOWNUC13.D112112A,	REF2013.D102312A,	HINUC13.D112112A,	

and NUCSMR13.D112712A.
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013 193

Results from side cases

Table D5. Key results for renewable technology case

8 Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Outlook 2013 

Table D5. Key results for renewable technology case

Capacity, generation, and emissions 2011 

2020 2030 2040 

Reference

Low Renewable 

Technology

Cost

Reference

Low Renewable 

Technology

Cost

Reference

Low Renewable 

Technology 

Cost

Net summer capacity (gigawatts) 

 Electric power sector1

 Conventional hydropower .................... 77.87 78.34 78.68 79.11 79.75 80.31 82.06

 Geothermal2 ......................................... 2.38 3.63 3.37 5.70 6.20 7.46 7.94

 Municipal waste3 .................................. 3.34 3.44 3.44 3.44 3.44 3.44 3.44

 Wood and other biomass4 .................... 2.37 2.82 2.81 2.85 3.22 3.70 6.18

 Solar thermal........................................ 0.49 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35

 Solar photovoltaic ................................ 1.01 5.37 10.15 6.80 15.08 24.54 45.95

 Wind ..................................................... 45.68 58.81 64.67 61.30 70.37 86.83 116.68

Total ................................................. 133.14 153.75 164.48 160.54 179.40 207.63 263.61

 End-use sector5

 Conventional hydropower .................... 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.33

 Geothermal .......................................... 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

 Municipal waste6 .................................. 0.46 0.46 0.46 0.46 0.46 0.46 0.46

 Wood and other biomass ..................... 4.92 6.87 7.61 8.34 10.36 10.18 14.01

 Solar photovoltaic ................................ 3.02 15.63 16.81 18.94 23.22 25.08 33.51

 Wind ..................................................... 0.21 0.87 1.36 1.05 1.73 1.51 2.84

Total ................................................. 8.93 24.15 26.55 29.12 36.10 37.55 51.15

Generation (billion kilowatthours) 

 Electric power sector1

	 	 	 	 	 Coal	.....................................................	 1,715 1,640 1,609 1,745 1,709	 1,804 1,758

 Petroleum ............................................ 26 15 15 16 16 16 16

	 	 	 	 	 Natural	gas	..........................................	 930 1,078 1,062 1,221 1,184	 1,348 1,238

Total fossil ....................................... 2,671 2,733 2,686 2,982 2,908	 3,169 3,013

 Conventional hydropower .................... 323.14 288.54 290.00 292.39 295.25 297.28 303.59

 Geothermal .......................................... 16.70 25.28 23.25 42.02 46.15 56.40 60.51

 Municipal waste7 .................................. 16.62 14.09 14.09 14.09 14.09 14.10 14.10

 Wood and other biomass4 .................... 10.50 54.45 72.77 65.48 86.74 75.64 113.52

 Dedicated plants ............................... 9.35 14.85 14.75 15.30 17.96 21.59 39.64

 Cofiring ............................................. 1.16 39.60 58.03 50.18 68.78 54.05 73.88

 Solar thermal........................................ 0.81 2.74 2.74 2.73 2.74 2.73 2.73

 Solar photovoltaic ................................ 0.97 9.83 20.85 13.40 32.67 56.22 105.76

 Wind ..................................................... 119.63 163.48 182.60 172.11 199.32 251.94 340.16

Total renewable ............................... 488.38 558.41 606.30 602.22 676.96 754.32 940.37

 End-use sector5

Total fossil ....................................... 88 122 122 171 169 248 242

 Conventional hydropower8 ................... 1.89 1.82 1.82 1.82 1.82 1.82 1.82

 Geothermal .......................................... 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

 Municipal waste6 .................................. 2.04 3.55 3.55 3.55 3.55 3.55 3.55

 Wood and other biomass ..................... 26.75 36.95 40.54 45.55 56.25 56.25 77.56

 Solar photovoltaic ................................ 4.71 24.53 26.37 29.91 36.82 39.97 53.71

 Wind ..................................................... 0.28 1.23 1.87 1.50 2.41 2.15 3.93

Total renewable ............................... 35.68 68.09 74.14 82.33 100.85 103.74 140.57

Carbon dioxide emissions by the electric 

power sector (million metric tons)1

 Coal .........................................................	 1,718 1,610 1,580 1,717 1,681	 1,775 1,730

 Petroleum ................................................ 25 13 13 14 14 14 14

 Natural gas .............................................. 411 446 440 482 471 514 476

 Other 9 ..................................................... 11 11 11 11 11 11 11

Total .................................................... 2,166 2,081 2,044 2,224 2,177 2,315 2,232

1

Includes electricity-only and combined heat and power plants that have a regulatory status. 

2

Includes both hydrothermal resources (hot water and steam) and near-field enhanced geothermal systems (EGS). Near-field EGS potential	occurs	on	known	hydrothermal	

sites,	however	this	potential	requires	the	addition	of	external	fluids	for	electricity	generation	and	is	only	available	after	2025. 3

Includes	all	municipal	waste,	landfill	gas,	and	municipal	sewage	sludge.	 	 Incremental	growth	is	assumed	to	be	for	landfill	gas	facilities.	 	 All	municipal	waste	is	included,	

although a portion of the municipal waste stream contains petroleum-derived plastics and other non-renewable sources. 4

Facilities	co-firing	biomass	and	coal	are	classified	as	coal.	

5

Includes combined heat and power plants and electricity-only plants in the commercial and industrial sectors that have a non-regulatory status. Includes small on-site 

generating	systems	in	the	residential,	commercial,	and	industrial	sectors	used	primarily	for	own-use	generation,	but	which	may	also sell some power to the grid. Excludes off-grid 

photovoltaics and other generators not connected to the distribution or transmission systems. 6

Includes	 municipal	 waste,	 landfill	 gas,	 and	 municipal	 sewage	 sludge.	 	 All	 municipal	 waste	 is	 included,	 although	 a	 portion	 of	 the municipal waste stream contains 

petroleum-derived plastics and other non-renewable sources. 7

Includes	biogenic	municipal	waste,	landfill	gas,	and	municipal	sewage	sludge.	 	 Incremental	growth	is	assumed	to	be	for	landfill gas facilities. 8

Represents own-use industrial hydroelectric power. 

9

Includes emissions from geothermal power and nonbiogenic emissions from municipal solid waste. 

Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. Data for 2011 are model results and may differ slightly from official EIA data reports. 

Source:	 	 U.S.	Energy	Information	Administration,	AEO2013	National	Energy	Modeling	System	runs	REF2013.D102312A,	and	LCR20.D112012A.
194 U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013

Results from side cases

Table D6. Key results for environmental cases

Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Outlook 2013 9

Table D6. Key results for environmental cases

Net summer capacity, generation, 

emissions, and fuel prices 2011

2040

Reference GHG10 GHG15 GHG25 

High Oil 

and Gas 

Resource 

GHG10 and

Low Gas 

Prices

GHG15 and

Low Gas 

Prices

GHG25 and

Low Gas 

Prices

Capacity (gigawatts) 

 Coal steam ............................................................ 314.4 273.3 219.6 120.1 28.8 248.0 145.5 80.7 29.5

 Oil and natural gas steam ..................................... 102.7 64.8 51.7 37.9 26.0 68.5 57.6 56.2 19.9

 Combined cycle .................................................... 205.5 314.4 312.8 336.2 368.3 343.6 433.4 458.7 517.1

 Combustion turbine / diesel ................................... 138.9 211.7 200.3 192.5 174.0 250.3 213.4 201.5 176.7

 Nuclear / uranium .................................................. 101.1 113.1 137.3 166.5 226.6 106.5 115.9 130.7 150.5

 Pumped storage .................................................... 22.3 22.3 22.3 22.3 22.3 22.3 22.3 22.3 22.3

 Renewable sources............................................... 133.1 207.6 264.4 375.5 439.0 162.3 197.2 260.7 325.5

 Distributed generation ........................................... 0.0 5.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 28.2 0.3 0.1 0.0

 Combined heat and power1 ................................... 30.6 81.0 91.8 99.1 108.3 85.1 93.2 96.4 103.2

 Total ................................................................ 1,048.8 1,293.3 1,300.4 1,350.2 1,393.3 1,314.8 1,278.8 1,307.2 1,344.6

Cumulative additions (gigawatts) 

 Coal steam ............................................................ 0.0 7.6 6.4 7.2 6.5 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.4

 Combined cycle .................................................... 0.0 109.1 107.6 131.0 163.0 138.4 228.1 253.5 311.8

 Combustion turbine / diesel ................................... 0.0 80.9 70.5 69.1 71.1 116.3 82.0 72.9 72.7

 Nuclear / uranium .................................................. 0.0 11.0 35.3 64.4 124.6 5.5 13.9 28.6 48.5

 Renewable sources............................................... 0.0 75.7 132.5 243.6 307.1 30.4 65.3 128.8 193.6

 Distributed generation ........................................... 0.0 5.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 28.2 0.3 0.1 0.0

 Combined heat and power1 ................................... 0.0 50.4 61.2 68.5 77.6 54.5 62.6 65.8 72.5

 Total ................................................................ 0.0 339.9 413.6 583.9 750.0 379.7 458.6 556.0 705.5

Cumulative retirements (gigawatts) ....................... 0.0 103.4 170.0 290.5 413.5 121.7 236.5 305.6 417.7

Generation by fuel (billion kilowatthours) 

 Coal .......................................................................	 1,715 1,804 1,190 602 61 1,426	 550	 176 32

 Petroleum .............................................................. 26 16 15 12 10 16 12 10 10

	 	 	 Natural	gas	............................................................	 930 1,348 1,240 1,263 1,105 1,971	 2,473	 2,491 2,189

 Nuclear / uranium .................................................. 790 903 1,091 1,317 1,788 853	 925	 1,039 1,195

 Pumped storage / other ......................................... 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

 Renewable sources............................................... 489 754 1,070 1,277 1,382 633	 772	 912 1,077

 Distributed generation ........................................... 0 13 0 0 0 122 0 0 0

 Combined heat and power1 ................................... 139 370 417 437 463 409 441 452 473

 Total ................................................................ 4,093 5,212 5,026 4,911 4,812 5,432 5,177 5,083 4,977

Emissions by the electric power sector2

	 	 	 Carbon	dioxide	(million	metric	tons)	......................	 2,166 2,315 1,639 1,034 360 2,227	 1,444	 1,056 544

 Sulfur dioxide (million short tons) .......................... 4.42 1.66 0.90 0.47 0.06 1.09 0.40 0.13 0.04

 Nitrogen oxides (million short tons) ....................... 1.94 1.87 1.31 0.70 0.26 1.56 0.72 0.41 0.30

 Mercury (short tons) .............................................. 31.49 7.75 5.32 2.81 0.53 6.16 2.39 0.97 0.37

Retrofits (gigawatts) 

 Scrubber ............................................................... 0.00 33.87 36.06 20.75 15.76 33.92 22.05 17.32 14.36

 Nitrogen oxide controls 

 Combustion ...................................................... 0.00 0.79 0.79 0.79 0.01 0.78 0.00 0.01 0.00

 Selective catalytic reduction post-combustion .. 0.00 13.90 12.28 13.65 14.17 13.52 14.12 12.28 12.31

 Selective non-catalytic reduction 

 post-combustion ............................................ 0.00 0.70 1.22 1.17 0.70 2.51 1.17 0.70 0.70

Prices to the electric power sector2

 (2011 dollars per million Btu) 

 Natural gas ............................................................ 4.77 8.38 10.03 11.01 12.87 5.13 7.47 8.47 10.40

 Coal ....................................................................... 2.38 3.20 6.38 7.71 10.58 2.91 5.83 7.25 10.75

1

Includes combined heat and power plants and electricity-only plants in the commercial and industrial sectors that have a non-regulatory status. Includes small on-site 

generating	systems	in	the	residential,	commercial,	and	industrial	sectors	used	primarily	for	own-use	generation,	but	which	may	also sell some power to the grid. Excludes off-grid 

photovoltaics and other generators not connected to the distribution or transmission systems. 2

Includes electricity-only and combined heat and power plants that have a regulatory status. 

Btu = British thermal unit. 

GHG = Greenhouse gas. 

Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. Data for 2011 are model results and may differ slightly from official EIA data reports. 

Source:	 	 U.S.	Energy	Information	Administration,	AEO2013	National	Energy	Modeling	System	runs	REF2013.D102312A,	CO2FEE10.D021413A,	CO2FEE15.D021413A,	

CO2FEE25.D021413A,	HIGHRESOURCE.D021413A,	CO2FEE10HR.D021413A,	CO2FEE15HR.D021413A,	and	CO2FEE25HR.D021413A.
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013 195

Results from side cases

Table D7. Natural gas supply and disposition, oil and gas resource cases

(trillion cubic feet per year, unless otherwise noted)

10 Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Outlook 2013 

Table D7. Natural gas supply and disposition, oil and gas resource cases

(trillion cubic feet per year,	unless	otherwise	noted)

Supply, disposition, and prices 2011 

2020 2030 2040 

Low Oil 

and Gas 

Resource

Reference

High Oil 

and Gas 

Resource

Low Oil 

and Gas 

Resource

Reference

High Oil 

and Gas 

Resource 

Low Oil 

and Gas 

Resource 

Reference

High Oil 

and Gas 

Resource

Henry Hub spot price 

(2011 dollars per million Btu) .................................. 3.98 5.37 4.13 2.72 7.05 5.40 3.26 10.36 7.83 4.32

(2011 dollars per thousand cubic feet) .................... 4.07 5.49 4.22 2.78 7.21 5.52 3.33 10.59 8.00 4.42

Dry gas production1.............................................. 23.00 24.23 26.61 30.94 25.75 29.79 36.89 27.03 33.14 44.91

 Lower 48 onshore .............................................. 20.54 21.84 24.27 28.37 21.85 26.26 33.30 22.47 29.12 40.74

 Associated-dissolved2 ................................... 1.54 1.78 2.14 3.00 1.24 1.43 3.05 0.93 1.09 2.70

 Non-associated ............................................. 19.00 20.06 22.13 25.37 20.62 24.83 30.25 21.54 28.03 38.04

 Tight gas ................................................... 5.86 5.98 6.40 7.63 5.77 6.67 8.86 5.95 7.34 10.72

 Shale gas.................................................. 7.85 9.29 11.05 13.18 10.40 14.17 17.56 11.14 16.70 23.93

 Coalbed methane ..................................... 1.71 1.79 1.71 1.60 2.15 1.69 1.51 2.55 2.11 1.53

 Other ........................................................ 3.58 2.99 2.97 2.96 2.30 2.31 2.32 1.90 1.87 1.86

 Lower 48 offshore .............................................. 2.11 2.11 2.07 2.29 2.70 2.34 2.37 3.38 2.85 2.92

 Associated-dissolved2 ................................... 0.54 0.66 0.66 0.74 0.71 0.60 0.65 0.89 0.74 0.81

 Non-associated ............................................. 1.58 1.44 1.41 1.55 1.99 1.73 1.72 2.49 2.11 2.12

	 	 	 Alaska	................................................................		 0.35 0.28 0.28 0.28 1.19 1.19 1.22	 1.18	 1.18 1.25

Supplemental natural gas3 ...................................... 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06

Net imports ............................................................ 1.95 0.24 -0.14 -0.52 -0.83 -2.10 -3.63 -2.56 -3.55 -6.70

 Pipeline4 ............................................................. 1.67 0.50 0.13 -0.26 0.04 -0.67 -1.57 -1.39 -2.09 -2.84

 Liquefied natural gas .......................................... 0.28 -0.26 -0.26 -0.26 -0.87 -1.43 -2.06 -1.17 -1.46 -3.86

Total supply ........................................................... 25.01 24.53 26.54 30.48 24.98 27.75 33.33 24.53 29.65 38.27

Consumption by sector 

 Residential ......................................................... 4.72 4.44 4.52 4.64 4.26 4.36 4.52 4.02 4.14 4.31

 Commercial ........................................................ 3.16 3.20 3.32 3.51 3.26 3.42 3.71 3.40 3.60 3.97

 Industrial5 ........................................................... 6.77 7.52 7.68 7.96 7.55 7.79 8.04 7.59 7.90 8.14

 Natural-gas-to-liquids heat and power6 .............. 0.00 0.07 0.13 0.14 0.09 0.21 0.36 0.11 0.33 1.01

 Natural gas to liquids production7....................... 0.00 0.07 0.14 0.15 0.09 0.22 0.39 0.12 0.35 1.10

 Electric power8 ................................................... 7.60 6.87 8.23 11.27 7.23 8.89 12.89 6.13 9.50 14.78

 Transportation9 .................................................. 0.04 0.07 0.08 0.08 0.18 0.26 0.27 0.77 1.04 1.04

 Pipeline fuel ....................................................... 0.68 0.66 0.70 0.78 0.67 0.73 0.85 0.66 0.76 0.97

 Lease and plant fuel10 ........................................ 1.39 1.42 1.54 1.74 1.46 1.70 2.12 1.59 1.93 2.79

Total .............................................................. 24.37 24.31 26.32 30.26 24.78 27.57 33.14 24.40 29.54 38.11

Discrepancy11 ......................................................... 0.64 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.19 0.18 0.19 0.14 0.12 0.16

Lower 48 end of year dry reserves1 .................... 298.96 308.37 332.51 398.38 321.33 350.65 435.34 330.37 359.97 450.88

1

Marketed	production	(wet)	minus	extraction	losses.	

2

Gas which occurs in crude oil reservoirs either as free gas (associated) or as gas in solution with crude oil (dissolved).

3

Synthetic	natural	gas,	propane	air,	coke	oven	gas,	refinery	gas,	biomass	gas,	air	injected	for	Btu	stabilization,	and	manufactured gas commingled and distributed with natural 

gas. 4

Includes	any	natural	gas	regasified	in	the	Bahamas	and	transported	via	pipeline	to	Florida,	as	well	as	gas	from	Canada	and	Mexico. 5

Includes	energy	for	combined	heat	and	power	plants	that	have	a	non-regulatory	status,	and	small	on-site	generating	systems.	

6

Includes any natural gas used in the process of converting natural gas to liquid fuel that is not actually converted. 

7

Includes any natural gas converted into liquid fuel. 

8

Includes consumption of energy by electricity-only and combined heat and power plants that have a regulatory status. 

9

Natural gas used as a vehicle fuel. 

10Represents	natural	gas	used	in	well,	field,	and	lease	operations,	in	natural	gas	processing	plant	machinery,	and	for	liquefaction in export facilities. 11Balancing item. Natural gas lost as a result of converting flow data measured at varying temperatures and pressures to a standard temperature and pressure and the 

merger	of	different	data	reporting	systems	which	vary	in	scope,	format,	definition,	and	respondent	type.	 	 In	addition,	2011	values include net storage injections. 

Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. Data for 2011 are model results and may differ slightly from official EIA data reports. 

Sources:	 	 2011	supply	values;	lease,	plant,	and	pipeline	fuel	consumption:	 	 U.S.	Energy	Information	Administration	(EIA),	Natural Gas Monthly,	DOE/EIA-0130(2012/07)	

(Washington,	DC,	July	2012).	 	 Other	2011	consumption	based	on:	 	 EIA,	Annual Energy Review 2011,	DOE/EIA-0384(2011)	(Washington,	DC,	September	2012).	 	 2011	natural	

gas price at Henry Hub based on daily spot prices published in Natural Gas Intelligence. Projections:	 	 EIA,	 AEO2013	 National	 Energy	 Modeling	 System	 runs	

LOWRESOURCE.D012813A,	REF2013.D102312A,	and	HIGHRESOURCE.D021413A.
196 U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013

Results from side cases

Table D8. Liquid fuels supply and disposition, oil and gas resource cases

(million barrels per day, unless otherwise noted)

Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Outlook 2013 11

Table D8. Liquid fuels supply and disposition, oil and gas resource cases

(million	barrels	per	day, unless otherwise noted)

Supply, disposition, and prices 2011 

2020 2030 2040 

Low Oil 

and Gas 

Resource

Reference

High Oil 

and Gas 

Resource

Low Oil 

and Gas 

Resource

Reference

High Oil 

and Gas 

Resource 

Low Oil 

and Gas 

Resource 

Reference

High Oil 

and Gas 

Resource

Crude oil prices 

(2011 dollars per barrel) 

 Brent spot ..................................................... 111.26 107.96 105.57 98.30 132.32 130.47 117.09 165.01 162.68 143.97

 West Texas Intermediate spot ..................... 94.86 105.92 103.57 96.43 130.29 128.47 115.30 162.98 160.68 142.20

 Imported crude oil1 ....................................... 102.65 104.36 102.19 95.26 126.68 125.64 112.93 157.23 154.96 136.97

Crude oil supply

 Domestic production2 ................................... 5.67 6.82 7.47 9.68 5.96 6.30 9.96 5.90 6.13 10.24

	 	 	 	 	 	 Alaska	.....................................................		 0.57 0.49 0.49 0.54 0.38 0.38 0.69	 0.41	 0.41 0.89

 Lower 48 States ...................................... 5.10 6.33 6.98 9.14 5.57 5.92 9.27 5.49 5.72 9.35

 Net imports ................................................... 8.89 7.55 6.82 4.57 7.89 7.36 3.74 8.12 7.57 3.09

 Gross imports .......................................... 8.94 7.55 6.82 4.57 7.89 7.36 3.74 8.12 7.57 3.09

 Exports .................................................... 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

 Other crude oil supply3 ................................. 0.26 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Total crude oil supply ........................... 14.81 14.37 14.29 14.24 13.85 13.66 13.70 14.02 13.70 13.33

Other petroleum supply ................................. 3.02 3.90 4.04 4.40 3.65 3.82 4.30 3.17 3.29 3.96

 Natural gas plant liquids ............................... 2.22 2.77 3.13 4.13 2.46 2.90 4.69 2.40 2.92 5.02

 Net product imports ...................................... -0.30 0.06 -0.13 -0.68 0.15 -0.08 -1.22 -0.32 -0.67 -1.82

 Gross refined product imports4 ................ 1.15 1.46 1.47 1.42 1.71 1.53 1.36 1.67 1.42 1.30

 Unfinished oil imports .............................. 0.69 0.56 0.56 0.56 0.51 0.51 0.51 0.45 0.45 0.45

 Blending component imports ................... 0.72 0.63 0.63 0.63 0.54 0.54 0.45 0.42 0.40 0.37

 Exports .................................................... 2.86 2.60 2.79 3.30 2.62 2.67 3.53 2.86 2.94 3.94

 Refinery processing gain5 ............................ 1.08 1.08 1.04 0.95 1.04 1.00 0.82 1.08 1.03 0.77

	 	 	 Product	stock	withdrawal	.............................		 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00	 0.00	 0.00 0.00

Other non-petroleum supply .......................... 1.09 1.47 1.51 1.50 1.48 1.58 1.60 1.79 1.97 2.25

 Supply from renewable sources ................... 0.90 1.18 1.18 1.19 1.13 1.14 1.16 1.40 1.43 1.38

 Ethanol .................................................... 0.84 1.07 1.08 1.09 0.99 0.99 1.02 0.95 0.97 0.99

 Domestic production ........................... 0.91 1.00 1.01 1.02 0.95 0.95 0.98 0.86 0.89 0.93

 Net imports ......................................... -0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.10 0.08 0.06

 Biodiesel .................................................. 0.06 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08

 Domestic production ........................... 0.06 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07

 Net imports ......................................... 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01

 Other biomass-derived liquids6................ 0.00 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.37 0.38 0.32

 Liquids from gas ........................................... 0.00 0.04 0.08 0.08 0.05 0.13 0.22 0.07 0.20 0.62

 Liquids from coal .......................................... 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.04 0.00 0.03 0.06 0.04

 Other7 ........................................................... 0.18 0.26 0.25 0.23 0.28 0.28 0.22 0.29 0.28 0.20

Total primary supply8 ..................................... 18.92 19.74 19.84 20.15 18.98 19.06 19.59 18.99 18.96 19.55

Net import share of product supplied (percent) . 45.0 39.0 34.1 19.7 42.7 38.5 13.1 41.7 36.9 6.9

Net expenditures for imports of crude oil and 

petroleum products (billion 2011 dollars) .......... 362.66 293.15 259.66 163.99 370.21 342.67 158.79 471.38 433.65 159.39

Lower 48 end of year reserves2

(billion barrels) ................................................ 21.36 23.07 24.63 29.69 24.11 24.92 31.36 26.03 26.72 32.75
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013 197

Results from side cases

Table D8. Liquid fuels supply and disposition, oil and gas resource cases (continued)

(million barrels per day, unless otherwise noted)

12 Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Outlook 2013 

Table D8. Liquid fuels supply and disposition, oil and gas resource cases (continued)

(million	barrels	per	day, unless otherwise noted)

Supply, disposition, and prices 2011 

2020 2030 2040 

Low Oil 

and Gas 

Resource

Reference

High Oil 

and Gas 

Resource

Low Oil 

and Gas 

Resource

Reference

High Oil 

and Gas 

Resource 

Low Oil 

and Gas 

Resource 

Reference

High Oil 

and Gas 

Resource

Refined petroleum product prices to

the transportation sector 

(2011 dollars per gallon) 

 Propane ........................................................ 2.22 2.18 2.07 1.73 2.34 2.26 1.94 2.50 2.44 2.24

 Ethanol (E85)9 ............................................... 2.42 2.89 2.83 2.73 2.61 2.57 2.35 3.14 2.92 2.74

 Ethanol wholesale price ................................ 2.54 3.05 3.00 2.95 2.36 2.28 2.27 2.61 2.48 2.27

 Motor gasoline10 ............................................ 3.45 3.38 3.32 3.16 3.72 3.67 3.39 4.39 4.32 3.93

 Jet fuel11 ........................................................ 3.04 2.97 2.90 2.70 3.59 3.51 3.16 4.34 4.19 3.71

 Distillate fuel oil12 .......................................... 3.58 3.71 3.65 3.45 4.28 4.22 3.94 5.05 4.94 4.47

 Residual fuel oil ............................................. 2.67 2.29 2.23 2.07 2.78 2.75 2.46 3.44 3.36 2.98

 Residual fuel oil (2011 dollars per barrel) ...... 112.11 96.00 93.74 87.03 116.81 115.30 103.28 144.39 141.16 125.08

1

Weighted average price delivered to U.S. refiners. 

2

Includes lease condensate. 

3

Strategic	petroleum	reserve	stock	additions	plus	unaccounted	for	crude	oil	and	crude	stock	withdrawals	minus	crude	product	supplied. 4

Includes other hydrocarbons and alcohol.

5

The	volumetric	amount	by	which	total	output	is	greater	than	input	due	to	the	processing	of	crude	oil	into	products	which,	in	total,	have	a	lower	specific	gravity	than	the	crude	oil	

processed. 6

Includes	pyrolysis	oils,	biomass-derived	Fischer-Tropsch	liquids,	and	renewable	feedstocks	used	for	the	on-site	production	of	diesel and gasoline. 7

Includes	domestic	sources	of	other	blending	components,	other	hydrocarbons,	and	ethers.	

8

Total crude supply plus other petroleum supply plus other non-petroleum supply. 

9

E85 refers to a blend of 85 pecent ethanol (renewable) and 15 percent motor gasoline (nonrenewable). To address cold starting issues,	the	percentage	of	ethanol	varies	

seasonally. The annual average ethanol content of 74 percent is used for this forecast. 10Sales	weighted-average	price	for	all	grades.	 	 Includes	Federal,	State,	and	local	taxes.	 11Includes	only	kerosene-type.	 12Diesel	fuel	for	on-road	use.	 	 Includes	Federal	and	State	taxes	while	excluding	county	and	local	taxes.	

Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. Data for 2011 are model results and may differ slightly from official EIA data reports. 

Sources:	 	 2011	 product	 supplied	 data	 and	 imported	 crude	 oil	 price	 based	 on:	 	 U.S.	 Energy	 Information	 Administration	 (EIA),	 Annual Energy Review 2011,

DOE/EIA-0384(2011)	(Washington,	DC,	September	2012).	 	 2011	crude	oil	spot	prices:	 	 Thomson	Reuters.	 	 2011	transportation	sector	prices	based	on:	 	 EIA,	Form	EIA-782A,	

“Refiners’/Gas Plant Operators’ Monthly Petroleum Product Sales Report”. 2011 E85 prices derived from monthly prices in the Clean	Cities	Alternative	Fuel	Price	Report.	 	 2011	

wholesale	ethanol	prices	derived	from	Bloomberg	U.S.	average	rack	price.	 	 Other	2011	data:	 	 EIA,	Petroleum Supply Annual 2011,	DOE/EIA-0340(2011)/1	(Washington,	DC,	

August 2012). Projections:	 	 EIA,	AEO2013	National	Energy	Modeling	System	runs	LOWRESOURCE.D012813A,	REF2013.D102312A,	and	HIGHRESOURCE.D021413A.
198 U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013

Results from side cases

Table D9. Key transportation results, oil and gas resource cases

Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Outlook 2013 13

Table D9. Key transportation results, oil and gas resource cases

Consumption and indicators 2011 

2020 2030 2040 

Low Oil 

and Gas 

Resource

Reference

High Oil 

and Gas 

Resource

Low Oil 

and Gas 

Resource

Reference

High Oil 

and Gas 

Resource 

Low Oil 

and Gas 

Resource 

Reference

High Oil 

and Gas 

Resource

Level of travel 

 (billion vehicle miles traveled) 

	 	 	 	 Light-duty	vehicles	less	than	8,501	pounds	.		 2,629 2,860 2,870 2,901 3,312 3,323 3,372	 3,711	 3,719 3,775

	 	 	 	 Commercial	light	trucks1 .............................. 65 80 80 81 94 94 96 109 110 112

	 	 	 	 Freight	trucks	greater	than	10,000	pounds	..		 240 321 323 332 369 371 385	 437	 438 454

 (billion seat miles available) 

	 	 	 	 Air	................................................................		 982 1,081 1,082 1,082 1,177 1,177 1,177	 1,274	 1,274 1,274

 (billion ton miles traveled) 

	 	 	 	 Rail	..............................................................		 1,557 1,755 1,719 1,622 1,909 1,910 1,772	 2,000	 2,017 1,947

 Domestic shipping ....................................... 514 594 612 703 567 578 737 581 591 773

Energy efficiency indicators 

 (miles per gallon) 

 Tested new light-duty vehicle2 ..................... 31.5 38.0 37.9 37.7 48.2 48.1 47.7 49.1 49.0 48.5

 New car2 ................................................... 36.4 44.4 44.4 44.3 55.6 55.6 55.5 56.1 56.1 55.9

	 	 	 	 	 	 New	light	truck2 ........................................ 27.3 32.1 32.0 31.9 40.4 40.3 40.1 40.5 40.4 40.1

 On-road new light-duty vehicle3 ................... 25.5 30.7 30.6 30.4 39.0 38.9 38.6 39.7 39.7 39.3

 New car3 ................................................... 29.8 36.3 36.3 36.2 45.4 45.4 45.3 45.8 45.8 45.7

	 	 	 	 	 	 New	light	truck3 ........................................ 21.8 25.7 25.6 25.5 32.4 32.3 32.1 32.4 32.3 32.1

	 	 	 	 Light-duty	stock4 .......................................... 20.6 24.1 24.1 24.0 31.4 31.3 31.2 36.2 36.1 35.8

	 	 	 	 New	commercial	light	truck1 ........................ 18.1 20.0 20.0 19.9 24.2 24.1 24.0 24.2 24.2 24.0

	 	 	 	 Stock	commercial	light	truck1....................... 14.9 17.9 17.9 17.9 22.2 22.2 22.1 24.1 24.1 23.9

	 	 	 	 Freight	truck	................................................		 6.7 7.3 7.3 7.3 8.0 8.0 8.0	 8.2	 8.2 8.1

 (seat miles per gallon) 

 Aircraft ......................................................... 62.3 63.9 63.9 63.9 67.0 67.0 67.0 71.5 71.5 71.5

 (ton miles per thousand Btu) 

 Rail .............................................................. 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5

 Domestic shipping ....................................... 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.6

Energy use by mode (quadrillion Btu) 

 Light-duty vehicles ........................................ 15.56 14.29 14.35 14.53 12.71 12.77 13.02 12.38 12.43 12.72

	 	 	 Commercial	light	trucks1 ............................... 0.54 0.56 0.56 0.57 0.53 0.53 0.54 0.57 0.57 0.58

 Bus transportation ......................................... 0.25 0.27 0.27 0.27 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.32 0.32 0.32

	 	 	 Freight	trucks	................................................		 4.95 6.02 6.07 6.24 6.34 6.39 6.64	 7.27	 7.31 7.62

	 	 	 Rail,	passenger	.............................................		 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.06 0.06 0.06	 0.06	 0.06 0.06

	 	 	 Rail,	freight	....................................................		 0.45 0.51 0.49 0.47 0.54 0.54 0.50	 0.56	 0.57 0.55

	 	 	 Shipping,	domestic	........................................		 0.21 0.24 0.25 0.29 0.23 0.23 0.30	 0.23	 0.23 0.30

	 	 	 Shipping,	international	................................... 0.80 0.81 0.81 0.81 0.82 0.82 0.82 0.84 0.84 0.84

 Recreational boats ........................................ 0.24 0.26 0.26 0.26 0.27 0.28 0.28 0.29 0.29 0.30

 Air .................................................................. 2.46 2.65 2.65 2.66 2.78 2.78 2.79 2.85 2.86 2.86

 Military use .................................................... 0.74 0.63 0.63 0.63 0.68 0.68 0.68 0.77 0.77 0.77

 Lubricants ..................................................... 0.13 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13

 Pipeline fuel .................................................. 0.70 0.67 0.71 0.79 0.69 0.74 0.86 0.68 0.78 0.99

Total ......................................................... 27.09 27.08 27.24 27.69 26.07 26.24 26.92 26.94 27.14 28.03
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013 199

Results from side cases

Table D9. Key transportation results, oil and gas resource cases (continued)

14 Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Outlook 2013 

Table D9. Key transportation results, oil and gas resource cases (continued)

Consumption and indicators 2011 

2020 2030 2040 

Low Oil 

and Gas 

Resource

Reference

High Oil 

and Gas 

Resource

Low Oil 

and Gas 

Resource

Reference

High Oil 

and Gas 

Resource 

Low Oil 

and Gas 

Resource 

Reference

High Oil 

and Gas 

Resource

Energy use by fuel (quadrillion Btu) 

 Propane ........................................................ 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.09

 E855 .............................................................. 0.05 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.16 0.16 0.17 0.15 0.17 0.16

 Motor gasoline6 ............................................. 16.31 14.82 14.88 15.07 13.00 13.06 13.32 12.61 12.64 12.98

 Jet fuel7 ......................................................... 3.01 3.11 3.11 3.12 3.28 3.28 3.28 3.42 3.42 3.42

 Distillate fuel oil8 ............................................ 5.91 7.25 7.28 7.44 7.64 7.61 7.86 8.12 7.90 8.22

 Residual fuel oil ............................................. 0.82 0.84 0.84 0.85 0.85 0.86 0.87 0.87 0.87 0.89

 Other petroleum9 ........................................... 0.17 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16

 Liquid fuels and other petroleum .............. 26.32 26.31 26.42 26.79 25.16 25.20 25.74 25.41 25.24 25.92

 Pipeline fuel natural gas ................................ 0.70 0.67 0.71 0.79 0.69 0.74 0.86 0.68 0.78 0.99

 Compressed/liquefied natural gas ................. 0.04 0.07 0.08 0.08 0.18 0.26 0.27 0.78 1.05 1.06

 Liquid hydrogen ............................................ 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

 Electricity ....................................................... 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.07 0.07 0.06

Delivered energy .................................... 27.09 27.08 27.24 27.69 26.07 26.25 26.92 26.94 27.14 28.03

 Electricity related losses ................................ 0.05 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.09 0.09 0.08 0.13 0.13 0.12

Total ......................................................... 27.13 27.15 27.30 27.74 26.16 26.33 27.01 27.07 27.27 28.15

1

Commercial	trucks	8,501	to	10,000	pounds	gross	vehicle	weight	rating.	

2

Environmental Protection Agency rated miles per gallon. 

3

Tested new vehicle efficiency revised for on-road performance. 

4

Combined	“on-the-road”	estimate	for	all	cars	and	light	trucks.	

5

E85 refers to a blend of 85 percent ethanol (renewable) and 15 percent motor gasoline (nonrenewable). To address cold starting	issues,	the	percentage	of	ethanol	varies	

seasonally. The annual average ethanol content of 74 percent is used for this forecast. 6

Includes ethanol (blends of 15 percent or less) and ethers blended into gasoline. 

7

Includes	only	kerosene	type.	

8

Diesel fuel for on- and off- road use. 

9

Includes aviation gasoline and lubricants. 

Btu = British thermal unit. 

Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. Data for 2011 are model results and may differ slightly from official EIA data reports. 

Source:	 	 2011	 consumption	based	on:	 	 U.S.	Energy	Information	Administration	 (EIA),	Annual Energy Review 2011,	DOE/EIA-0384(2011)	 (Washington,	DC,	September	

2012).	 	 Other	2011	data:	 	 Federal	Highway	Administration,	Highway Statistics 2010	(Washington,	DC,	February	2012);	 	 Oak	Ridge	National	Laboratory,	Transportation Energy 

Data Book: Edition 31	(Oak	Ridge,	TN,	July	2012);	National	Highway	Traffic	and	Safety	Administration,	Summary of Fuel Economy Performance	(Washington,	DC,	October	28,	

2010);	U.S.	Department	of	Commerce,	Bureau	of	the	Census,	“Vehicle	Inventory	and	Use	Survey”,	EC02TV	(Washington,	DC,	December	2004);	EIA,	Alternatives	to	Traditional	

Transportation	Fuels	2009	(Part	II	–	User	and	Fuel	Data),	April	2011;	EIA,	State Energy Data Report 2010,	DOE/EIA-0214(2010)	(Washington,	DC,	June	2012);	U.S.	Department	

of	Transportation,	Research	and	Special	Programs	Administration,	Air Carrier Statistics Monthly, December 2010-2009	(Washington,	DC,	December	2010);	and	United	States	

Department	 of	 Defense,	 Defense	 Fuel	 Supply	 Center,	 Factbook	 (January,	 2010).	 	 Projections:	 	 EIA,	 AEO2013	 National	 Energy	 Modeling	 System	 runs	

LOWRESOURCE.D012813A,	REF2013.D102312A,	and	HIGHRESOURCE.D021413A.	
200 U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013

Results from side cases

Table D10. Natural gas supply and disposition, oil import cases

(trillion cubic feet per year, unless otherwise noted)

Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Outlook 2013 15

Table D10. Natural gas supply and disposition, oil import cases

(trillion cubic feet per year,	unless	otherwise	noted)

Supply, disposition, and prices 2011 

2030 2040 

High Net 

Imports Reference

High Oil 

and Gas 

Resource 

Low/No Net

Imports 

High Net 

Imports Reference

High Oil 

and Gas 

Resource 

Low/No Net

Imports 

Henry Hub spot price 

(2011 dollars per million Btu) ....................................... 3.98 7.12 5.40 3.26 3.34 10.69 7.83 4.32 4.36

(2011 dollars per thousand cubic feet) ......................... 4.07 7.28 5.52 3.33 3.41 10.93 8.00 4.42 4.45

Dry gas production1................................................... 23.00 25.87 29.79 36.89 37.23 27.29 33.14 44.91 45.12

 Lower 48 onshore ................................................... 20.54 21.95 26.26 33.30 33.65 22.69 29.12 40.74 41.03

 Associated-dissolved2 ........................................ 1.54 1.24 1.43 3.05 3.02 0.93 1.09 2.70 2.67

 Non-associated .................................................. 19.00 20.71 24.83 30.25 30.62 21.76 28.03 38.04 38.36

 Tight gas ........................................................ 5.86 5.79 6.67 8.86 8.96 5.97 7.34 10.72 10.78

 Shale gas ....................................................... 7.85 10.45 14.17 17.56 17.84 11.32 16.70 23.93 24.18

 Coalbed methane .......................................... 1.71 2.16 1.69 1.51 1.52 2.59 2.11 1.53 1.53

 Other.............................................................. 3.58 2.30 2.31 2.32 2.31 1.88 1.87 1.86 1.87

 Lower 48 offshore ................................................... 2.11 2.73 2.34 2.37 2.36 3.41 2.85 2.92 2.85

 Associated-dissolved2 ........................................ 0.54 0.72 0.60 0.65 0.65 0.90 0.74 0.81 0.79

 Non-associated .................................................. 1.58 2.01 1.73 1.72 1.71 2.52 2.11 2.12 2.06

	 	 	 Alaska	.....................................................................	 0.35 1.19 1.19 1.22 1.22 1.18	 1.18	 1.25 1.24

Supplemental natural gas3 ........................................... 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06

Net imports ................................................................. 1.95 -0.78 -2.10 -3.63 -3.60 -2.24 -3.55 -6.70 -6.68

 Pipeline4 .................................................................. 1.67 0.08 -0.67 -1.57 -1.53 -1.10 -2.09 -2.84 -2.82

 Liquefied natural gas ............................................... 0.28 -0.86 -1.43 -2.06 -2.06 -1.14 -1.46 -3.86 -3.86

Total supply ................................................................ 25.01 25.16 27.75 33.33 33.70 25.11 29.65 38.27 38.50

Consumption by sector 

 Residential .............................................................. 4.72 4.25 4.36 4.52 4.51 4.00 4.14 4.31 4.34

 Commercial ............................................................. 3.16 3.25 3.42 3.71 3.69 3.37 3.60 3.97 3.97

 Industrial5 ................................................................ 6.77 7.66 7.79 8.04 7.94 7.74 7.90 8.14 8.16

 Natural-gas-to-liquids heat and power6 ................... 0.00 0.09 0.21 0.36 0.36 0.11 0.33 1.01 0.93

 Natural gas to liquids production7............................ 0.00 0.10 0.22 0.39 0.39 0.12 0.35 1.10 1.01

 Electric power8 ........................................................ 7.60 7.11 8.89 12.89 12.83 6.02 9.50 14.78 14.78

 Transportation9........................................................ 0.04 0.36 0.26 0.27 0.70 1.29 1.04 1.04 1.26

 Pipeline fuel ............................................................ 0.68 0.68 0.73 0.85 0.85 0.67 0.76 0.97 0.97

 Lease and plant fuel10 ............................................. 1.39 1.48 1.70 2.12 2.18 1.66 1.93 2.79 2.83

Total ................................................................... 24.37 24.98 27.57 33.14 33.46 25.00 29.54 38.11 38.26

Discrepancy11 .............................................................. 0.64 0.18 0.18 0.19 0.24 0.11 0.12 0.16 0.24

Lower 48 end of year dry reserves1.......................... 298.96 321.40 350.65 435.34 435.38 329.61 359.97 450.88 450.65

1

Marketed	production	(wet)	minus	extraction	losses.	

2

Gas which occurs in crude oil reservoirs either as free gas (associated) or as gas in solution with crude oil (dissolved).

3

Synthetic	natural	gas,	propane	air,	coke	oven	gas,	refinery	gas,	biomass	gas,	air	injected	for	Btu	stabilization,	and	manufactured gas commingled and distributed with natural 

gas. 4

Includes	any	natural	gas	regasified	in	the	Bahamas	and	transported	via	pipeline	to	Florida,	as	well	as	gas	from	Canada	and	Mexico. 5

Includes	energy	for	combined	heat	and	power	plants	that	have	a	non-regulatory	status,	and	small	on-site	generating	systems.	

6

Includes any natural gas used in the process of converting natural gas to liquid fuel that is not actually converted. 

7

Includes any natural gas converted into liquid fuel. 

8

Includes consumption of energy by electricity-only and combined heat and power plants that have a regulatory status. 

9

Natural gas used as a vehicle fuel. 

10Represents	natural	gas	used	in	well,	field,	and	lease	operations,	in	natural	gas	processing	plant	machinery,	and	for	liquefaction in export facilities. 11Balancing item. Natural gas lost as a result of converting flow data measured at varying temperatures and pressures to a standard temperature and pressure and the 

merger	of	different	data	reporting	systems	which	vary	in	scope,	format,	definition,	and	respondent	type.	 	 In	addition,	2011	values include net storage injections. 

Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. Data for 2011 are model results and may differ slightly from official EIA data reports. 

Sources:	 	 2011	supply	values;	lease,	plant,	and	pipeline	fuel	consumption:	 	 U.S.	Energy	Information	Administration	(EIA),	Natural Gas Monthly,	DOE/EIA-0130(2012/07)	

(Washington,	DC,	July	2012).	 	 Other	2011	consumption	based	on:	 	 EIA,	Annual Energy Review 2011,	DOE/EIA-0384(2011)	(Washington,	DC,	September	2012).	 	 2011	natural	

gas price at Henry Hub based on daily spot prices published in Natural Gas Intelligence. Projections:	 	 EIA,	 AEO2013	 National	 Energy	 Modeling	 System	 runs	

HIGHIMPORT.D012813A,	REF2013.D102312A,	HIGHRESOURCE.D021413A,	and	LOWIMPORT.D021113B.
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013 201

Results from side cases

Table D11. Liquid fuels supply and disposition, oil import cases

(million barrels per day, unless otherwise noted)

16 Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Outlook 2013 

Table D11. Liquid fuels supply and disposition, oil import cases

(million	barrels	per	day, unless otherwise noted)

Supply, disposition, and prices 2011 

2030 2040 

High Net 

Imports Reference

High Oil 

and Gas 

Resource 

Low/No Net

Imports 

High Net 

Imports Reference

High Oil 

and Gas 

Resource 

Low/No Net

Imports 

Crude oil prices 

(2011 dollars per barrel) 

 Brent spot .............................................................. 111.26 135.83 130.47 117.09 111.04 170.69 162.68 143.97 133.95

 West Texas Intermediate spot .............................. 94.86 133.75 128.47 115.30 109.33 168.59 160.68 142.20 132.30

 Imported crude oil1 ................................................ 102.65 129.57 125.64 112.93 107.01 161.59 154.96 136.97 127.64

Crude oil supply

 Domestic production2 ............................................ 5.67 6.04 6.30 9.96 9.92 5.90 6.13 10.24 10.15

	 	 	 	 	 	 Alaska	..............................................................		 0.57 0.44 0.38 0.69 0.69 0.38	 0.41	 0.89 0.91

 Lower 48 States ............................................... 5.10 5.60 5.92 9.27 9.23 5.51 5.72 9.35 9.25

 Net imports ............................................................ 8.89 8.80 7.36 3.74 3.15 9.28 7.57 3.09 3.29

 Gross imports ................................................... 8.94 8.80 7.36 3.74 3.15 9.28 7.57 3.09 3.29

 Exports ............................................................. 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

 Other crude oil supply3 .......................................... 0.26 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

 Total crude oil supply ................................... 14.81 14.84 13.66 13.70 13.06 15.18 13.70 13.33 13.45

Other petroleum supply .......................................... 3.02 3.74 3.82 4.30 2.99 3.36 3.29 3.96 1.11

 Natural gas plant liquids ........................................ 2.22 2.47 2.90 4.69 4.70 2.43 2.92 5.02 5.00

 Net product imports ............................................... -0.30 0.11 -0.08 -1.22 -2.41 -0.32 -0.67 -1.82 -4.64

 Gross refined product imports4 ......................... 1.15 1.71 1.53 1.36 1.38 1.69 1.42 1.30 1.33

 Unfinished oil imports ....................................... 0.69 0.51 0.51 0.51 0.51 0.45 0.45 0.45 0.45

 Blending component imports ............................ 0.72 0.56 0.54 0.45 0.45 0.48 0.40 0.37 0.37

 Exports ............................................................. 2.86 2.67 2.67 3.53 4.75 2.94 2.94 3.94 6.79

 Refinery processing gain5 ..................................... 1.08 1.16 1.00 0.82 0.70 1.25 1.03 0.77 0.75

	 	 	 Product	stock	withdrawal	......................................		 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00	 0.00	 0.00 0.00

Other non-petroleum supply ................................... 1.09 1.62 1.58 1.60 1.60 2.01 1.97 2.25 2.25

 Supply from renewable sources ............................ 0.90 1.23 1.14 1.16 1.17 1.57 1.43 1.38 1.44

 Ethanol ............................................................. 0.84 1.09 0.99 1.02 1.03 1.13 0.97 0.99 1.01

 Domestic production .................................... 0.91 1.01 0.95 0.98 0.97 1.01 0.89 0.93 0.95

 Net imports .................................................. -0.07 0.08 0.04 0.04 0.06 0.12 0.08 0.06 0.06

 Biodiesel ........................................................... 0.06 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.07 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.07

 Domestic production .................................... 0.06 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.06 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.06

 Net imports .................................................. 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01

 Other biomass-derived liquids6......................... 0.00 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.07 0.36 0.38 0.32 0.36

 Liquids from gas .................................................... 0.00 0.05 0.13 0.22 0.22 0.07 0.20 0.62 0.57

 Liquids from coal ................................................... 0.00 0.04 0.04 0.00 0.00 0.06 0.06 0.04 0.04

 Other7 .................................................................... 0.18 0.30 0.28 0.22 0.21 0.31 0.28 0.20 0.21

Total primary supply8 .............................................. 18.92 20.20 19.06 19.59 17.65 20.55 18.96 19.55 16.81

Net import share of product supplied (percent) .......... 45.0 44.6 38.5 13.1 4.6 44.3 36.9 6.9 -7.6

Net expenditures for imports of crude oil and 

petroleum products (billion 2011 dollars) ................... 362.66 421.73 342.67 158.79 127.58 553.11 433.65 159.39 158.09

Lower 48 end of year reserves2

(billion barrels) ......................................................... 21.36 24.19 24.92 31.36 31.32 26.06 26.72 32.75 32.55
202 U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013

Results from side cases

Table D11. Liquid fuels supply and disposition, oil import cases (continued)

(million barrels per day, unless otherwise noted)

Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Outlook 2013 17

Table D11. Liquid fuels supply and disposition, oil import cases (continued)

(million	barrels	per	day, unless otherwise noted)

Supply, disposition, and prices 2011 

2030 2040 

High Net 

Imports Reference

High Oil 

and Gas 

Resource 

Low/No Net

Imports 

High Net 

Imports Reference

High Oil 

and Gas 

Resource 

Low/No Net

Imports 

Refined petroleum product prices to

the transportation sector 

(2011 dollars per gallon) 

 Propane .................................................................. 2.22 2.35 2.26 1.94 1.94 2.52 2.44 2.24 2.18

 Ethanol (E85)9 ......................................................... 2.42 2.95 2.57 2.35 2.44 3.81 2.92 2.74 2.72

 Ethanol wholesale price .......................................... 2.54 2.67 2.28 2.27 2.56 3.13 2.48 2.27 2.38

 Motor gasoline10 ...................................................... 3.45 3.85 3.67 3.39 3.32 4.64 4.32 3.93 3.68

 Jet fuel11 .................................................................. 3.04 3.68 3.51 3.16 3.04 4.50 4.19 3.71 3.53

 Distillate fuel oil12 .................................................... 3.58 4.36 4.22 3.94 3.87 5.16 4.94 4.47 4.27

 Residual fuel oil ....................................................... 2.67 2.83 2.75 2.46 2.35 3.55 3.36 2.98 2.80

 Residual fuel oil (2011 dollars per barrel) ................ 112.11 118.76 115.30 103.28 98.84 149.01 141.16 125.08 117.71

1

Weighted average price delivered to U.S. refiners. 

2

Includes lease condensate. 

3

Strategic	petroleum	reserve	stock	additions	plus	unaccounted	for	crude	oil	and	crude	stock	withdrawals	minus	crude	product	supplied. 4

Includes other hydrocarbons and alcohol.

5

The	volumetric	amount	by	which	total	output	is	greater	than	input	due	to	the	processing	of	crude	oil	into	products	which,	in	total,	have	a	lower	specific	gravity	than	the	crude	oil	

processed. 6

Includes	pyrolysis	oils,	biomass-derived	Fischer-Tropsch	liquids,	and	renewable	feedstocks	used	for	the	on-site	production	of	diesel and gasoline. 7

Includes	domestic	sources	of	other	blending	components,	other	hydrocarbons,	and	ethers.	

8

Total crude supply plus other petroleum supply plus other non-petroleum supply. 

9

E85 refers to a blend of 85 pecent ethanol (renewable) and 15 percent motor gasoline (nonrenewable). To address cold starting issues,	the	percentage	of	ethanol	varies	

seasonally. The annual average ethanol content of 74 percent is used for this forecast. 10Sales	weighted-average	price	for	all	grades.	 	 Includes	Federal,	State,	and	local	taxes.	 11Includes	only	kerosene-type.	 12Diesel	fuel	for	on-road	use.	 	 Includes	Federal	and	State	taxes	while	excluding	county	and	local	taxes.	

Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. Data for 2011 are model results and may differ slightly from official EIA data reports. 

Sources:	 	 2011	 product	 supplied	 data	 and	 imported	 crude	 oil	 price	 based	 on:	 	 U.S.	 Energy	 Information	 Administration	 (EIA),	 Annual Energy Review 2011, DOE/EIA-0384(2011)	(Washington,	DC,	September	2012).	 	 2011	crude	oil	spot	prices:	 	 Thomson	Reuters.	 	 2011	transportation	sector	prices	based	on:	 	 EIA,	Form	EIA-782A,	

“Refiners’/Gas Plant Operators’ Monthly Petroleum Product Sales Report”. 2011 E85 prices derived from monthly prices in the Clean	Cities	Alternative	Fuel	Price	Report.	 	 2011	

wholesale	ethanol	prices	derived	from	Bloomberg	U.S.	average	rack	price.	 	 Other	2011	data:	 	 EIA,	Petroleum	Supply	Annual	2011,	DOE/EIA-0340(2011)/1	(Washington,	DC,	

August 2012). Projections:	 	 EIA,	 AEO2013	 National	 Energy	 Modeling	 System	 runs	 HIGHIMPORT.D012813A,	 REF2013.D102312A,	 HIGHRESOURCE.D021413A,	 and	

LOWIMPORT.D021113B.
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013 203

Results from side cases

Table D12. Key transportation results, oil import cases

18 Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Outlook 2013 

Table D12. Key transportation results, oil import cases

Consumption and indicators 2011 

2030 2040 

High Net 

Imports Reference

High Oil 

and Gas 

Resource 

Low/No Net

Imports 

High Net 

Imports Reference

High Oil 

and Gas 

Resource 

Low/No Net

Imports 

Level of travel 

 (billion vehicle miles traveled) 

	 	 	 Light-duty	vehicles	less	than	8,501	pounds	............. 2,629 3,257 3,323 3,372 2,753 3,607	 3,719	 3,775 2,761

	 	 	 Commercial	light	trucks1 .......................................... 65 93 94 96 90 109 110 112 103

	 	 	 Freight	trucks	greater	than	10,000	pounds	.............. 240 369 371 385 385 437 438 454 455

 (billion seat miles available) 

 Air ............................................................................. 982 1,177 1,177 1,177 1,177 1,274	 1,274	 1,274 1,274

 (billion ton miles traveled) 

 Rail ........................................................................... 1,557 1,910 1,910 1,772 1,784 1,997	 2,017	 1,947 1,966

 Domestic shipping .................................................... 514 570 578 737 735 582 591 773 769

Energy efficiency indicators 

 (miles per gallon) 

 Tested new light-duty vehicle2.................................. 31.5 38.8 48.1 47.7 51.6 39.8 49.0 48.5 57.6

 New car2 .............................................................. 36.4 44.4 55.6 55.5 60.5 45.5 56.1 55.9 66.4

	 	 	 	 	 	 New	light	truck2 ................................................... 27.3 32.7 40.3 40.1 43.5 33.2 40.4 40.1 48.1

 On-road new light-duty vehicle3 ............................... 25.5 31.4 38.9 38.6 41.7 32.2 39.7 39.3 46.6

 New car3 .............................................................. 29.8 36.3 45.4 45.3 49.4 37.1 45.8 45.7 54.2

	 	 	 	 	 	 New	light	truck3 ................................................... 21.8 26.2 32.3 32.1 34.8 26.6 32.3 32.1 38.5

	 	 	 Light-duty	stock4....................................................... 20.6 27.5 31.3 31.2 31.7 29.8 36.1 35.8 39.1

	 	 	 New	commercial	light	truck1 ..................................... 18.1 20.5 24.1 24.0 24.9 20.7 24.2 24.0 26.9

	 	 	 Stock	commercial	light	truck1 ................................... 14.9 19.8 22.2 22.1 22.4 20.6 24.1 23.9 25.7

	 	 	 Freight	truck	............................................................. 6.7 7.5 8.0 8.0 8.4 7.6 8.2 8.1 8.7

 (seat miles per gallon) 

 Aircraft ...................................................................... 62.3 66.0 67.0 67.0 68.1 69.3 71.5 71.5 74.6

 (ton miles per thousand Btu) 

 Rail ........................................................................... 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.7

 Domestic shipping .................................................... 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.4 2.6 2.6 2.7

Energy use by mode (quadrillion Btu) 

 Light-duty vehicles ................................................... 15.56 14.29 12.77 13.02 10.41 14.64 12.43 12.72 8.47

	 	 	 Commercial	light	trucks1 .......................................... 0.54 0.59 0.53 0.54 0.50 0.66 0.57 0.58 0.50

 Bus transportation .................................................... 0.25 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32

	 	 	 Freight	trucks	........................................................... 4.95 6.79 6.39 6.64 6.28 7.80 7.31 7.62 7.19

	 	 	 Rail,	passenger	........................................................ 0.05 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.07 0.06 0.06 0.06

	 	 	 Rail,	freight	............................................................... 0.45 0.55 0.54 0.50 0.51 0.58 0.57 0.55 0.55

	 	 	 Shipping,	domestic	................................................... 0.21 0.24 0.23 0.30 0.29 0.24 0.23 0.30 0.29

	 	 	 Shipping,	international	.............................................. 0.80 0.83 0.82 0.82 0.82 0.84 0.84 0.84 0.83

 Recreational boats ................................................... 0.24 0.27 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.29 0.30 0.30

 Air ............................................................................. 2.46 2.82 2.78 2.79 2.75 2.94 2.86 2.86 2.75

 Military use ............................................................... 0.74 0.68 0.68 0.68 0.68 0.77 0.77 0.77 0.77

 Lubricants ................................................................ 0.13 0.12 0.12 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13

 Pipeline fuel ............................................................. 0.70 0.69 0.74 0.86 0.87 0.69 0.78 0.99 0.99

Total .................................................................... 27.09 28.23 26.24 26.92 23.88 29.95 27.14 28.03 23.16
204 U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013

Results from side cases

Table D12. Key transportation results, oil import cases (continued)

Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Outlook 2013 19

Table D12. Key transportation results, oil import cases (continued)

Consumption and indicators 2011 

2030 2040 

High Net 

Imports Reference

High Oil 

and Gas 

Resource 

Low/No Net

Imports 

High Net 

Imports Reference

High Oil 

and Gas 

Resource 

Low/No Net

Imports 

Energy use by fuel (quadrillion Btu) 

 Propane ................................................................... 0.06 0.08 0.07 0.08 0.07 0.10 0.08 0.09 0.07

 E855 ......................................................................... 0.05 0.15 0.16 0.17 0.43 0.20 0.17 0.16 0.65

 Motor gasoline6 ........................................................ 16.31 14.57 13.06 13.32 10.53 14.77 12.64 12.98 8.31

 Jet fuel7 .................................................................... 3.01 3.32 3.28 3.28 3.24 3.50 3.42 3.42 3.32

 Distillate fuel oil8 ....................................................... 5.91 8.00 7.61 7.86 6.89 8.26 7.90 8.22 7.34

 Residual fuel oil ........................................................ 0.82 0.86 0.86 0.87 0.87 0.88 0.87 0.89 0.88

 Other petroleum9 ...................................................... 0.17 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16

 Liquid fuels subtotal ............................................. 26.32 27.13 25.20 25.74 22.20 27.87 25.24 25.92 20.73

 Pipeline fuel natural gas ........................................... 0.70 0.69 0.74 0.86 0.87 0.69 0.78 0.99 0.99

 Compressed / liquefied natural gas .......................... 0.04 0.36 0.26 0.27 0.71 1.31 1.05 1.06 1.29

 Liquid hydrogen ....................................................... 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

 Electricity .................................................................. 0.02 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.09 0.07 0.07 0.06 0.15

Delivered energy ............................................... 27.09 28.23 26.25 26.92 23.88 29.95 27.14 28.03 23.16

 Electricity related losses .......................................... 0.05 0.09 0.09 0.08 0.18 0.14 0.13 0.12 0.26

Total ................................................................... 27.13 28.32 26.33 27.01 24.05 30.09 27.27 28.15 23.42

1

Commercial	trucks	8,501	to	10,000	pounds	gross	vehicle	weight	rating.	

2

Environmental Protection Agency rated miles per gallon. 

3

Tested new vehicle efficiency revised for on-road performance. 

4

Combined	“on-the-road”	estimate	for	all	cars	and	light	trucks.	

5

E85 refers to a blend of 85 percent ethanol (renewable) and 15 percent motor gasoline (nonrenewable). To address cold starting	issues,	the	percentage	of	ethanol	varies	

seasonally. The annual average ethanol content of 74 percent is used for this forecast. 6

Includes ethanol (blends of 15 percent or less) and ethers blended into gasoline. 

7

Includes	only	kerosene	type.	

8

Diesel fuel for on- and off- road use. 

9

Includes aviation gasoline and lubricants. 

Btu = British thermal unit. 

Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. Data for 2011 are model results and may differ slightly from official EIA data reports. 

Source:	 	 2011	 consumption	based	on:	 	 U.S.	Energy	Information	Administration	 (EIA),	Annual Energy Review 2011,	DOE/EIA-0384(2011)	 (Washington,	DC,	September	

2012).	 	 Other	2011	data:	 	 Federal	Highway	Administration,	Highway Statistics 2010	(Washington,	DC,	February	2012);	 	 Oak	Ridge	National	Laboratory,	Transportation Energy 

Data Book: Edition 31	(Oak	Ridge,	TN,	July	2012);	National	Highway	Traffic	and	Safety	Administration,	Summary of Fuel Economy Performance	(Washington,	DC,	October	28,	

2010);	U.S.	Department	of	Commerce,	Bureau	of	the	Census,	“Vehicle	Inventory	and	Use	Survey”,	EC02TV	(Washington,	DC,	December	2004);	EIA,	Alternatives	to	Traditional	

Transportation	Fuels	2009	(Part	II	–	User	and	Fuel	Data),	April	2011;	EIA,	State Energy Data Report 2010,	DOE/EIA-0214(2010)	(Washington,	DC,	June	2012);	U.S.	Department	

of	Transportation,	Research	and	Special	Programs	Administration,	Air Carrier Statistics Monthly, December 2010-2009	(Washington,	DC,	December	2010);	and	United	States	

Department	 of	 Defense,	 Defense	 Fuel	 Supply	 Center,	 Factbook	 (January,	 2010).	 	 Projections:	 	 EIA,	 AEO2013	 National	 Energy	 Modeling	 System	 runs	

HIGHIMPORT.D012813A,	REF2013.D102312A,	HIGHRESOURCE.D021413A,	and	LOWIMPORT.D021113B.	
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013 205

Results from side cases

Table D13. Key results for No Greenhouse Gas Concern case

(million short tons per year, unless otherwise noted)

20 Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Outlook 2013 

Table D13. Key results for no greenhouse gas concern case

(million short tons per year,	unless	otherwise	noted)

Supply, disposition, prices, and 

electricity generating capacity additions 2011

2020 2030 2040 

Reference No GHG 

Concern Reference No GHG Concern Reference No GHG Concern 

Production1	................................................................		 1,096 1,071 1,080 1,153 1,149	 1,167 1,211

 Appalachia ............................................................ 337 288 290 295 298 283 284

 Interior ................................................................... 171 198 198 212 213 226 248

 West ...................................................................... 588 585 592 646 638 658 679

Waste coal supplied2 ................................................. 13 19 19 20 20 27 29

Net imports3 ............................................................... -96 -125 -125 -139 -133 -123 -111

Total supply4........................................................ 1,012 966 974 1,034 1,036 1,071 1,128

Consumption by sector 

 Residential and commercial .................................. 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

	 	 	 Coke	plants	...........................................................		 21 23 23 20 20	 18 18

 Other industrial5 .................................................... 46 50 50 50 50 52 52

 Coal-to-liquids heat and power ............................. 0 0 0 5 2 8 4

 Coal-to-liquids liquids production .......................... 0 0 0 4 2 6 3

 Electric power6 ...................................................... 929 890 898 953 960	 984 1,048

Total coal consumption ................................. 999 966 974 1,034 1,036 1,071 1,128

Average minemouth price7

 (2011 dollars per short ton) ................................... 41.16 49.26 49.13 55.64 55.83 61.28 61.15

 (2011 dollars per million Btu) ................................ 2.04 2.45 2.45 2.79 2.79 3.08 3.09

Delivered prices8

(2011 dollars per short ton) 

	 	 	 Coke	plants	...........................................................		 184.44 229.19 228.99 264.13 263.97	 290.84 290.85

 Other industrial5 .................................................... 70.68 72.44 72.48 78.25 78.24 85.63 86.67

 Coal to liquids ....................................................... - - - - - - 47.71 55.16 55.60 52.25

 Electric power6

 (2011 dollars per short ton) .............................. 46.38 47.91 47.86 54.37 54.44 60.77 61.34

 (2011 dollars per million Btu) ............................ 2.38 2.52 2.51 2.87 2.87 3.20 3.24

 Average ................................................... 50.64 53.47 53.39 59.53 59.64 65.70 66.04

 Exports9 ................................................................ 148.86 168.73 168.93 177.76 177.62 176.05 173.77

Cumulative electricity generating

capacity additions (gigawatts)10

 Coal ....................................................................... 0.0 6.4 6.4 7.2 8.4 8.8 25.7

 Conventional .................................................... 0.0 4.9 4.9 4.9 6.5 6.1 23.6

 Advanced without sequestration ....................... 0.0 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6

 Advanced with sequestration............................ 0.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9

 End-use generators11 ....................................... 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 0.4 1.3 0.7

 Petroleum .............................................................. 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3

 Natural gas ............................................................ 0.0 38.1 37.4 120.2 117.1 215.2 209.4

 Nuclear / uranium .................................................. 0.0 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 11.0 6.1

 Renewables12........................................................ 0.0 37.1 37.4 48.8 47.8 104.3 84.8

 Other ..................................................................... 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2

Total ................................................................. 0.0 87.6 87.2 182.2 179.2 339.9 326.4

Liquids from coal (million barrels per day) ................. 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.02 0.06 0.03

1

Includes	anthracite,	bituminous	coal,	subbituminous	coal,	and	lignite.	

2

Includes waste coal consumed by the electric power and industrial sectors. Waste coal supplied is counted as a supply-side item to balance the same amount of waste coal 

included in the consumption data. 3

Excludes imports to Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. 

4

Production plus waste coal supplied plus net imports. 

5

Includes	 consumption	 for	 combined	 heat	 and	 power	 plants	 that	 have	 a	 non-regulatory	 status,	 and	 small	 on-site	 generating	 systems. Excludes all coal use in the 

coal-to-liquids process. 6

Includes all electricity-only and combined heat and power plants that have a regulatory status. 

7

Includes	reported	prices	for	both	open	market	and	captive	mines.	

8

Prices	weighted	by	consumption	tonnage;	weighted	average	excludes	residential	and	commercial	prices,	and	export	free-alongside-ship prices. 9

Free-alongside-ship	price	at	U.S.	port	of	exit.	

10Cumulative	additions	after	December	31,	2011.	 	 Includes	all	additions	of	electricity	only	and	combined	heat	and	power	plants	projected	for	the	electric	power,	industrial,	and	

commercial sectors. 11Includes combined heat and power plants and electricity-only plants in the commercial and industrial sectors that have a non-regulatory status. Includes small on-site 

generating	systems	in	the	residential,	commercial,	and	industrial	sectors	used	primarily	for	own-use	generation,	but	which	may	also sell some power to the grid. 12Includes	conventional	hydroelectric,	geothermal,	wood,	wood	waste,	municipal	waste,	landfill	gas,	other	biomass,	solar,	and	wind	power.	 	 Facilities	co-firing	biomass	and	

coal are classified as coal. 

- - = Not applicable. 

Btu = British thermal unit. 

GHG = Greenhouse gas. 

Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. Data for 2011 are model results and may differ slightly from official EIA data reports. 

Sources:	 	 2011	data	based	on:	 	 U.S.	Energy	Information	Administration	(EIA),	Annual Coal Report 2011,	DOE/EIA-0584(2011)	(Washington,	DC,	November	2012);	EIA,	

Quarterly Coal Report, October-December 2011,	 DOE/EIA-0121(2011/4Q)	 (Washington,	 DC,	 March	 2012);	 and	 EIA,	 AEO2013	 National	 Energy	 Modeling	 System	 run	

REF2013.D102312A.	 	Projections:	 	 EIA,	AEO2013	National	Energy	Modeling	System	runs	REF2013.D102312A	and	NOGHGCONCERN.D110912A.
206 U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013

Results from side cases

Table D14. Key results for coal cost cases

(million short tons per year, unless otherwise noted)

Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Outlook 2013 21

Table D14. Key results for coal cost cases

(million short tons per year,	unless	otherwise	noted)

Supply, disposition, prices, electricity 

generating capacity additions, and costs 2011

2020 2040 Annual growth 2011-2040 (percent)

Low Coal 

Cost Reference High Coal Cost

Low Coal 

Cost Reference High Coal Cost

Low Coal 

Cost Reference High Coal Cost

Production1 .................................................... 1,096	 1,129 1,071 985 1,363 1,167 838	 0.8%	 0.2% -0.9%

 Appalachia ................................................ 337 300 288 276 345 283 243 0.1% -0.6% -1.1%

 Interior ...................................................... 171 210 198 185 253 226 191 1.4% 1.0% 0.4%

 West ......................................................... 588 619 585 525 764 658 404 0.9% 0.4% -1.3%

Waste coal supplied2 ..................................... 13 16 19 20 13 27 47 0.1% 2.7% 4.6%

Net imports3................................................... -96 -129 -125 -123 -206 -123 -78 2.7% 0.9% -0.7%

Total supply4 ........................................... 1,012 1,016 966 882 1,170 1,071 806 0.5% 0.2% -0.8%

 

Consumption by sector 

 Residential and commercial ...................... 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 -0.2% -0.3% -0.4%

	 	 	 Coke	plants	............................................... 21 23 23 23 18 18 17 -0.6% -0.7% -0.8%

 Other industrial5 ........................................ 46 50 50 50 52 52 51 0.4% 0.4% 0.3%

 Coal-to-liquids heat and power ................. 0 5 0 0 13 8 0 - - - - - -

 Coal-to-liquids liquids production .............. 0 4 0 0 10 6 0 - - - - - -

 Electric power6 .......................................... 929	 932 890 807 1,075 984 735	 0.5%	 0.2% -0.8%

Total coal use ..................................... 999 1,016 966 882 1,170 1,071 807 0.5% 0.2% -0.7%

 

Average minemouth price7 

 (2011 dollars per short ton) ....................... 41.16 40.89 49.26 61.11 33.90 61.28 128.09 -0.7% 1.4% 4.0%

 (2011 dollars per million Btu) .................... 2.04 2.04 2.45 3.02 1.70 3.08 6.20 -0.6% 1.4% 3.9%

 

Delivered prices8 

(2011 dollars per short ton) 

	 	 	 Coke	plants	............................................... 184.44 198.35 229.19 264.37 178.75 290.84 475.91 -0.1% 1.6% 3.3%

 Other industrial5 ........................................ 70.68 63.21 72.44 83.01 53.10 85.63 145.06 -1.0% 0.7% 2.5%

 Coal to liquids ........................................... - - 29.33 - - - - 27.23 55.60 107.69 - - - - - -

 Electric power6 

 (2011 dollars per short ton) .................. 46.38 41.46 47.91 56.00 35.63 60.77 110.99 -0.9% 0.9% 3.1%

 (2011 dollars per million Btu) ............... 2.38 2.17 2.52 2.93 1.88 3.20 5.68 -0.8% 1.0% 3.0%

 Average ....................................... 50.64 46.00 53.47 62.86 38.45 65.70 120.95 -0.9% 0.9% 3.0%

 Exports9 .................................................... 148.86 147.66 168.73 194.63 117.53 176.05 317.96 -0.8% 0.6% 2.7%

 

Cumulative electricity generating 

capacity additions (gigawatts)10 

 Coal .......................................................... 0.0 7.1 6.4 6.4 16.2 8.8 6.5 - - - - - -

 Conventional ........................................ 0.0 4.9 4.9 4.9 12.9 6.1 4.9 - - - - - -

 Advanced without sequestration .......... 0.0 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 - - - - - -

 Advanced with sequestration ............... 0.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 - - - - - -

 End-use generators11 ........................... 0.0 0.7 0.0 0.0 1.8 1.3 0.1 - - - - - -

 Petroleum ................................................. 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 - - - - - -

 Natural gas ............................................... 0.0 37.0 38.1 37.3 210.7 215.2 221.8 - - - - - -

 Nuclear / uranium ..................................... 0.0 5.5 5.5 5.5 8.6 11.0 8.7 - - - - - -

 Renewables12 ........................................... 0.0 38.4 37.1 38.2 111.4 104.3 90.3 - - - - - -

 Other ........................................................ 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 - - - - - -

Total .................................................... 0.0 88.5 87.6 87.9 347.3 339.9 327.7 - - - - - -

 

Liquids from coal (million barrels per day) ..... 0.00 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.09 0.06 0.00 - - - - - -
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013 207

Results from side cases

Table D14. Key results for coal cost cases (continued)

(million short tons per year, unless otherwise noted)

22 Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Outlook 2013 

Table D14. Key results for coal cost cases (continued)

(million short tons per year,	unless	otherwise	noted)

Supply, disposition, and prices 2011 

2020 2040 Annual growth 2011-2040 (percent)

Low Coal 

Cost Reference High Coal Cost

Low Coal 

Cost Reference High Coal Cost

Low Coal 

Cost Reference High Coal Cost

Cost indices 

(constant dollar index, 2011=1.000) 

 Transportation rate multipliers 

 Eastern railroads .................................. 1.000 0.950 1.028 1.070 0.750 1.003 1.240 -1.0% 0.0% 0.7%

 Western railroads ................................. 1.000 0.920 0.989 1.060 0.760 1.013 1.270 -0.9% 0.0% 0.8%

 Mine equipment costs 

 Underground ........................................ 1.000 0.923 1.000 1.083 0.755 1.000 1.321 -1.0% 0.0% 1.0%

 Surface ................................................ 1.000 0.923 1.000 1.083 0.755 1.000 1.321 -1.0% 0.0% 1.0%

 Other mine supply costs 

 East of the Mississippi: all mines ......... 1.000 0.923 1.000 1.083 0.755 1.000 1.321 -1.0% 0.0% 1.0%

 West of the Mississippi: underground .. 1.000 0.923 1.000 1.083 0.755 1.000 1.321 -1.0% 0.0% 1.0%

 West of the Mississippi: surface ........... 1.000 0.923 1.000 1.083 0.755 1.000 1.321 -1.0% 0.0% 1.0%

 

Coal mining labor productivity 

(short tons per miner per hour) ...................... 5.19 5.45 4.43 3.49 6.68 3.47 1.44 0.9% -1.4% -4.3%

 

Average coal miner wage 

(2011 dollars per year) .................................. 81,258	 87,721 95,199 102,572 80,105 105,676 138,365	 0.0%	 0.9% 1.9%

1

Includes	anthracite,	bituminous	coal,	subbituminous	coal,	and	lignite.	

2

Includes waste coal consumed by the electric power and industrial sectors. Waste coal supplied is counted as a supply-side item to balance the same amount of waste coal 

included in the consumption data. 3

Excludes imports to Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. 

4

Production plus waste coal supplied plus net imports. 

5

Includes	consumption	for	combined	heat	and	power	plants	that	have	a	non-regulatory	status,	and	small	on-site	generating	systems. Excludes all coal use in the coal to 

liquids process. 6

Includes all electricity-only and combined heat and power plants that have a regulatory status. 

7

Includes	reported	prices	for	both	open	market	and	captive	mines.	

8

Prices	weighted	by	consumption	tonnage;	weighted	average	excludes	residential	and	commercial	prices,	and	export	free-alongside-ship prices. 9

Free-alongside-ship	price	at	U.S.	port	of	exit.	

10Cumulative	additions	after	December	31,	2011.	 	 Includes	all	additions	of	electricity	only	and	combined	heat	and	power	plants	projected	for	the	electric	power,	industrial,	and	

commercial sectors. 11Includes combined heat and power plants and electricity-only plants in the commercial and industrial sectors that have a non-regulatory status. Includes small on-site 

generating	systems	in	the	residential,	commercial,	and	industrial	sectors	used	primarily	for	own-use	generation,	but	which	may	also sell some power to the grid. 12Includes	conventional	hydroelectric,	geothermal,	wood,	wood	waste,	municipal	waste,	landfill	gas,	other	biomass,	solar,	and	wind	power.	 	 Facilities	co-firing	biomass	and	

coal are classified as coal. 

- - = Not applicable. 

Btu = British thermal unit. 

Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. Data for 2011 are model results and may differ slightly from official EIA data reports. 

Sources:	 	 2011	data	based	on:	 	 U.S.	Energy	Information	Administration	(EIA),	Annual Coal Report 2011,	DOE/EIA-0584(2011)	(Washington,	DC,	November	2012);	EIA,	

Quarterly Coal Report, October-December 2011,	DOE/EIA-0121(2011/4Q)	(Washington,	DC,	March	2012);	U.S.	Department	of	Labor,	Bureau	of	Labor	Statistics,	Average	Hourly	

Earnings	of	Production	Workers:	 	 Coal	Mining,	Series	ID	:	 ceu1021210008;	and	EIA,	AEO2013	National	Energy	Modeling	System	 run	REF2013.D102312A.	 	Projections:

EIA,	AEO2013	National	Energy	Modeling	System	runs	LCCST13.D112112A,	REF2013.D102312A,	and	HCCST13.D112112A.
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U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013 209

Appendix E

NEMS overview and brief description of cases

The National Energy Modeling System

Projections in the Annual Energy Outlook 2013 (AEO2013) are generated using the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) [148], 

developed and maintained by the Office of Energy Analysis of the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). In addition to 

its use in developing the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) projections, NEMS is also used to complete analytical studies for the U.S. 

Congress, the Executive Office of the President, other offices within the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), and other Federal 

agencies. NEMS is also used by other nongovernment groups, such as the Electric Power Research Institute, Duke University, and 

Georgia Institute of Technology. In addition, the AEO projections are used by analysts and planners in other government agencies 

and nongovernment organizations.

The projections in NEMS are developed with the use of a market-based approach, subject to regulations and standards. For each 

fuel and consuming sector, NEMS balances energy supply and demand, accounting for economic competition among the various 

energy fuels and sources. The time horizon of NEMS extends to 2040. To represent regional differences in energy markets, the 

component modules of NEMS function at the regional level: the 9 Census divisions for the end-use demand modules; production 

regions specific to oil, natural gas, and coal supply and distribution; 22 regions and subregions of the North American Electric 

Reliability Corporation for electricity; and 9 refining regions that are a subset of the 5 Petroleum Administration for Defense 

Districts (PADDs).

NEMS is organized and implemented as a modular system. The modules represent each of the fuel supply markets, conversion 

sectors, and end-use consumption sectors of the energy system. The modular design also permits the use of the methodology 

and level of detail most appropriate for each energy sector. NEMS executes each of the component modules to solve for prices of 

energy delivered to end users and the quantities consumed, by product, region, and sector. The delivered fuel prices encompass 

all the activities necessary to produce, import, and transport fuels to end users. The information flows also include such areas as 

economic activity, domestic production, and international petroleum supply. NEMS calls each supply, conversion, and end-use 

demand module in sequence until the delivered prices of energy and the quantities demanded have converged within tolerance, 

thus achieving an economic equilibrium of supply and demand in the consuming sectors. A solution is reached for each year from 

2012 through 2040. Other variables, such as petroleum product imports, crude oil imports, and several macroeconomic indicators, 

also are evaluated for convergence.

Each NEMS component represents the impacts and costs of legislation and environmental regulations that affect that sector. 

NEMS accounts for all energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, as well as emissions of sulfur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen oxides 

(NOX), and mercury from the electricity generation sector.

The version of NEMS used for AEO2013 generally represents current legislation and environmental regulations, including recent 

government actions for which implementing regulations were available as of September 30, 2012, as discussed in the “Legislation 

and regulations” section of the AEO. The potential impacts of proposed federal and state legislation, regulations, or standards—or 

of sections of legislation that have been enacted but require funds or implementing regulations that have not been provided or 

specified—are not reflected in NEMS. Many of the pending provisions, however, are examined in alternative cases included in 

AEO2013 or in other analysis completed by EIA.

In general, the historical data presented with the AEO2013 projections are based on EIA’s Annual Energy Review 2011, published 

in September 2012 [149]; however, data were taken from multiple sources. In some cases, only partial or preliminary data were 

available for 2011. Historical numbers are presented for comparison only and may be estimates. Source documents should 

be consulted for the official data values. Footnotes to the AEO2013 appendix tables indicate the definitions and sources of 

historical data.

Where possible, the AEO2013 projections for 2012 and 2013 incorporate short-term projections from EIA’s September 2012 ShortTerm Energy Outlook (STEO) [150]. EIA’s views regarding energy use over the 2012 through 2014 period are reported in monthly 

updates of the STEO [151], which should be considered to supersede information reported for those years in AEO2013.

Component modules

The component modules of NEMS represent the individual supply, demand, and conversion sectors of domestic energy markets 

and also include international and macroeconomic modules. In general, the modules interact through values representing prices or 

expenditures for energy delivered to the consuming sectors and the quantities of end-use energy consumption.

Macroeconomic Activity Module

The Macroeconomic Activity Module (MAM) provides a set of macroeconomic drivers to the energy modules and receives 

energy-related indicators from the NEMS energy components as part of the macroeconomic feedback mechanism within NEMS. 

Key macroeconomic variables used in the energy modules include gross domestic product (GDP), disposable income, value of 

industrial shipments, new housing starts, sales of new light-duty vehicles (LDVs), interest rates, and employment. Key energy 

indicators fed back to the MAM include aggregate energy prices and quantities. The MAM uses the following models from IHS 
210 U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013

NEMS overview and brief description of cases

Global Insight: Macroeconomic Model of the U.S. Economy, National Industry Model, and National Employment Model. In addition, 

EIA has constructed a Regional Economic and Industry Model to project regional economic drivers, and a Commercial Floorspace 

Model to project 13 floorspace types in 9 Census divisions. The accounting framework for industrial value of shipments uses the 

North American Industry Classification System (NAICS).

International Energy Module

The International Energy Module (IEM) uses assumptions of economic growth and expectations of future U.S. and world petroleum 

and other liquids production and consumption, by year, to project the interaction of U.S. and international petroleum and other 

liquids markets. The IEM provides a world crude-like liquids supply curve and generates a worldwide oil supply/demand balance 

for each year of the projection period. The supply-curve calculations are based on historical market data and a world oil supply/

demand balance, which is developed from reduced-form models of international petroleum and other liquids supply and demand, 

current investment trends in exploration and development, and long-term resource economics by country and territory. The oil 

production estimates include both petroleum and other liquids supply recovery technologies. The IEM also provides, for each year 

of the projection period, endogenous and exogenous assumptions for petroleum products for import and export in the United 

States. In interacting with the rest of NEMS, the IEM changes Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) prices in response to 

changes in expected production and consumption of crude oil and other liquids in the United States.

Residential and Commercial Demand Modules

The Residential Demand Module projects energy consumption in the residential sector by Census division, housing type, and 

end use, based on delivered energy prices, the menu of equipment available, the availability of renewable sources of energy, and 

changes in the housing stock. The Commercial Demand Module projects energy consumption in the commercial sector by Census 

division, building type, and category of end use, based on delivered prices of energy, the menu of available equipment, availability 

of renewable sources of energy, and changes in commercial floorspace.

Both modules estimate the equipment stock for the major end-use services, incorporating assessments of advanced technologies, 

representations of renewable energy technologies, and the effects of both building shell and appliance standards. The modules 

also include projections of distributed generation. The Commercial Demand Module also incorporates combined heat and power 

(CHP) technology. Both modules incorporate changes to “normal” heating and cooling degree-days by Census division, based on 

a 30-year historical trend and on state-level population projections. The Residential Demand Module projects an increase in the 

average square footage of both new construction and existing structures, based on trends in new construction and remodeling.

Industrial Demand Module

The Industrial Demand Module (IDM) projects the consumption of energy for heat and power, as well as the consumption of 

feedstocks and raw materials in each of 21 industry groups, subject to the delivered prices of energy and macroeconomic estimates 

of employment and the value of shipments for each industry. As noted in the description of the MAM, the representation of 

industrial activity in NEMS is based on the NAICS. The industries are classified into three groups—energy-intensive manufacturing, 

non-energy-intensive manufacturing, and nonmanufacturing. Seven of eight energy-intensive manufacturing industries are 

modeled in the IDM, including energy-consuming components for boiler/steam/cogeneration, buildings, and process/assembly 

use of energy. Energy demand for petroleum and other liquids refining (the eighth energy-intensive manufacturing industry) is 

modeled in the Liquid Fuels Market Module (LFMM) as described below, but the projected consumption is reported under the 

industrial totals.

There are several updates and upgrades in the representations of select industries. AEO2013 includes an upgraded representation 

for the aluminum industry. Instead of assuming that technological development for a particular process occurs on a predetermined 

or exogenous path based on engineering judgment, these upgrades allow IDM technological change to be modeled endogenously, 

while using more detailed process representation. The upgrade allows for explicit technological change, and therefore energy 

intensity, to respond to economic, regulatory, and other conditions. The combined cement and lime industry was upgraded in the 

Annual Energy Outlook 2012 (AEO2012). For subsequent AEOs other energy-intensive industries will be similarly upgraded.

The bulk chemicals model has been enhanced in several respects: baseline natural gas liquids feedstock data were aligned with 

Manufacturing Energy Consumption Survey 2006 data; an updated propane pricing mechanism reflecting natural gas price 

influences was used to allow for price competition between liquefied petroleum gas feedstock and petroleum-based (naphtha) 

feedstock; and propylene supplied by the refining industry is now specifically accounted for in the LFMM.

Nonmanufacturing models were significantly revised as well. The construction and mining models were augmented to better 

reflect NEMS assumptions regarding energy efficiencies in (off-road) vehicles and buildings, as well as coal, oil, and natural 

gas extraction productivity. The agriculture model was similarly augmented in AEO2012. The IDM also includes a generalized 

representation of CHP. The methodology for CHP systems simulates the utilization of installed CHP systems based on 

historical utilization rates and is driven by end-use electricity demand. To evaluate the economic benefits of additional CHP 

capacity, the model also includes an appraisal incorporating historical capacity factors and regional acceptance rates for new 

CHP facilities.
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013 211

NEMS overview and brief description of cases

There are also enhancements to the IDM to account for regulatory changes. This includes the State of California’s Global Warming 

Solutions Act (AB 32) that allows for representation of a cap-and-trade program developed as part of California’s greenhouse 

gas (GHG) emissions reduction goals for 2020. Another regulatory update is included for the handling of National Emissions 

Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants for industrial boilers, to address the maximum degree of emission reduction using maximum 

achievable control technology (MACT).

Transportation Demand Module

The Transportation Demand Module projects consumption of energy by mode and fuel—including petroleum products, 

electricity, methanol, ethanol, compressed natural gas (CNG), liquefied natural gas (LNG), and hydrogen—in the transportation 

sector, subject to delivered energy prices, macroeconomic variables such as GDP, and other factors such as technology adoption. 

The Transportation Demand Module includes legislation and regulations, such as the Energy Policy Act of 2005 (EPACT2005), 

the Energy Improvement and Extension Act of 2008 (EIEA2008), and the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 

(ARRA2009), which contain tax credits for the purchase of alternatively fueled vehicles. Representations of LDV corporate 

average fuel economy (CAFE) and GHG emissions standards, HDV fuel consumption and GHG emissions standards, and 

biofuels consumption reflect standards enacted by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) and the U.S. 

Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), as well as provisions in the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (EISA2007).

The air transportation component of the Transportation Demand Module represents air travel in domestic and foreign markets 

and includes the industry practice of parking aircraft in both domestic and international markets to reduce operating costs, as well 

as the movement of aging aircraft from passenger to cargo markets. For passenger travel and air freight shipments, the module 

represents regional fuel use and travel demand for three aircraft types: regional, narrow-body, and wide-body. An infrastructure 

constraint, which is also modeled, can potentially limit overall growth in passenger and freight air travel to levels commensurate 

with industry-projected infrastructure expansion and capacity growth.

The Transportation Demand Module projects energy consumption for freight and passenger rail and marine vessels by mode and 

fuel, subject to macroeconomic variables such as the value and type of industrial shipments.

Electricity Market Module

There are three primary submodules of the Electricity Market Module (EMM)—capacity planning, fuel dispatching, and finance 

and pricing. The capacity expansion submodule uses the stock of existing generation capacity, known environmental regulations, 

the expected cost and performance of future generation capacity, expected fuel prices, expected financial parameters, and 

expected electricity demand to project the optimal mix of new generation capacity that should be added in future years. The 

fuel dispatching submodule uses the existing stock of generation equipment types, their operation and maintenance costs and 

performance, fuel prices to the electricity sector, electricity demand, and all applicable environmental regulations to determine 

the least-cost way to meet that demand. The submodule also determines transmission and pricing of electricity. The finance and 

pricing submodule uses capital costs, fuel costs, macroeconomic parameters, environmental regulations, and load shapes to 

estimate generation costs for each technology.

All specifically identified options promulgated by the EPA for compliance with the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990 are 

explicitly represented in the capacity expansion and dispatch decisions. All financial incentives for power generation expansion 

and dispatch specifically identified in EPACT2005 have been implemented. Several States, primarily in the Northeast, have 

enacted air emission regulations for CO2 that affect the electricity generation sector, and those regulations are represented in 

AEO2013. The AEO2013 Reference case also imposes a limit on CO2 emissions for specific covered sectors, including the electric 

power sector, in California, as represented in California’s AB 32. The AEO2013 Reference case leaves the Clean Air Interstate Rule 

(CAIR) in effect after the court vacated the Cross-State Air Pollution Rule (CSAPR) in August 2012. CAIR incorporates a cap and 

trade program for annual emissions of SO2 and annual and seasonal emissions of NOX from fossil power plants. Reductions in 

hazardous air pollutant emissions from coal- and oil-fired steam electric power plants also are reflected through the inclusion of 

the Mercury and Air Toxics Standards for power plants, finalized by the EPA on December 16, 2011.

Although currently there is no Federal legislation in place that restricts GHG emissions, regulators and the investment community 

have continued to push energy companies to invest in technologies that are less GHG-intensive. The trend is captured in the 

AEO2013 Reference case through a 3-percentage-point increase in the cost of capital, when evaluating investments in new coalfired power plants, new coal-to-liquids (CTL) plants without carbon capture and storage (CCS), and pollution control retrofits.

Renewable Fuels Module

The Renewable Fuels Module (RFM) includes submodules representing renewable resource supply and technology input 

information for central-station, grid-connected electricity generation technologies, including conventional hydroelectricity, 

biomass (dedicated biomass plants and co-firing in existing coal plants), geothermal, landfill gas, solar thermal electricity, 

solar photovoltaics (PV), and both onshore and offshore wind energy. The RFM contains renewable resource supply estimates 

representing the regional opportunities for renewable energy development. Investment tax credits (ITCs) for renewable fuels 

are incorporated, as currently enacted, including a permanent 10-percent ITC for business investment in solar energy (thermal 
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NEMS overview and brief description of cases

nonpower uses as well as power uses) and geothermal power (available only to those projects not accepting the production 

tax credit [PTC] for geothermal power). In addition, the module reflects the increase in the ITC to 30 percent for solar energy 

systems installed before January 1, 2017. The extension of the credit to individual homeowners under EIEA2008 is reflected in the 

Residential and Commercial Demand Modules.

PTCs for wind, geothermal, landfill gas, and some types of hydroelectric and biomass-fueled plants also are represented, based 

on the laws in effect on October 31, 2012. They provide a credit of up to 2.2 cents per kilowatthour for electricity produced in 

the first 10 years of plant operation. For AEO2013, new wind plants coming on line before January 1, 2013, are eligible to receive 

the PTC; other eligible plants must be in service before January 1, 2014. The law was subsequently amended to extend the PTC 

for wind. The impact of this amendment is considered in the American Taxpayer Relief Act of 2012 case discussed in the “Issues 

in focus” section of AEO2013. Furthermore, eligible plants of any type will qualify if construction begins prior to the expiration 

date, regardless of when the plant enters commercial service. This change was made after the completion of AEO2013 and is 

not reflected in the analysis. As part of ARRA2009, plants eligible for the PTC may instead elect to receive a 30-percent ITC or 

an equivalent direct grant. AEO2013 also accounts for new renewable energy capacity resulting from state renewable portfolio 

standard programs, mandates, and goals, as described in Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2013 [152].

Oil and Gas Supply Module

The Oil and Gas Supply Module represents domestic crude oil and natural gas supply within an integrated framework that captures 

the interrelationships among the various sources of supply—onshore, offshore, and Alaska—by all production techniques, including 

natural gas recovery from coalbeds and low-permeability formations of sandstone and shale. The framework analyzes cash flow 

and profitability to compute investment and drilling for each of the supply sources, based on the prices for crude oil and natural 

gas, the domestic recoverable resource base, and the state of technology. Oil and natural gas production activities are modeled for 

12 supply regions, including 6 onshore, 3 offshore, and 3 Alaskan regions.

The Onshore Lower 48 Oil and Gas Supply Submodule evaluates the economics of future exploration and development projects 

for crude oil and natural gas at the play level. Crude oil resources include conventional, structurally reservoired resources as well 

as highly fractured continuous zones, such as the Austin chalk and Bakken shale formations. Production potential from advanced 

secondary recovery techniques (such as infill drilling, horizontal continuity, and horizontal profile) and enhanced oil recovery (such 

as CO2 flooding, steam flooding, polymer flooding, and profile modification) are explicitly represented. Natural gas resources 

include high-permeability carbonate and sandstone, tight gas, shale gas, and coalbed methane.

Domestic crude oil production quantities are used as inputs to the LFMM in NEMS for conversion and blending into refined 

petroleum products. Supply curves for natural gas are used as inputs to the Natural Gas Transmission and Distribution Module 

(NGTDM) for determining natural gas wellhead prices and domestic production.

Natural Gas Transmission and Distribution Module

The NGTDM represents the transmission, distribution, and pricing of natural gas, subject to end-use demand for natural gas and 

the availability of domestic natural gas and natural gas traded on the international market. The module tracks the flows of natural 

gas and determines the associated capacity expansion requirements in an aggregate pipeline network, connecting the domestic 

and foreign supply regions with 12 lower 48 U.S. demand regions. The 12 lower 48 regions align with the 9 Census divisions, with 

three subdivided, and Alaska handled separately. The flow of natural gas is determined for both a peak and off-peak period in the 

year, assuming a historically based seasonal distribution of natural gas demand. Key components of pipeline and distributor tariffs 

are included in separate pricing algorithms. An algorithm is included to project the addition of CNG retail fueling capability. The 

module also accounts for foreign sources of natural gas, including pipeline imports and exports to Canada and Mexico, as well as 

LNG imports and exports.

Liquid Fuels Market Module

The LFMM projects prices of petroleum products, crude oil and product import activity, as well as domestic refinery operations, 

subject to demand for petroleum products, availability and price of imported petroleum, and domestic production of crude oil, 

natural gas liquids, and biofuels—ethanol, biodiesel, biomass-to-liquids (BTL), CTL, gas-to-liquids (GTL), and coal-and-biomassto-liquids (CBTL). Costs, performance, and first dates of commercial availability for the advanced liquid fuels technologies [153] 

are reviewed and updated annually.

The module represents refining activities in eight domestic U.S. regions, and a new Maritime Canada/Caribbean refining region 

(created to represent short-haul international refineries that predominantly serve U.S. markets). In order to better represent policy, 

import/export patterns, and biofuels production, the eight U.S. regions were defined by subdividing three of the five U.S. PADDs. 

All nine refining regions are defined below.
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Region 1. PADD I – East Coast

Region 2. PADD II – Interior

Region 3. PADD II – Great Lakes

Region 4. PADD III – Gulf Coast

Region 5. PADD III – Interior

Region 6. PADD IV – Mountain

Region 7. PADD V – California

Region 8. PADD V – Other

Region 9. Maritime Canada/Caribbean

The capacity expansion submodule uses the stock of existing generation capacity, the cost and performance of future generation 

capacity, expected fuel prices, expected financial parameters, expected electricity demand, and expected environmental regulations 

to project the optimal mix of new generation capacity that should be added in future years.

The LFMM models the costs of automotive fuels, such as conventional and reformulated gasoline, and includes production of 

biofuels for blending in gasoline and diesel. Fuel ethanol and biodiesel are included in the LFMM, because they are commonly 

blended into petroleum products. The module allows ethanol blending into gasoline at 10 percent by volume, 15 percent by 

volume (E15) in states that lack explicit language capping ethanol volume or oxygen content, and up to 85 percent by volume 

(E85) for use in flex-fuel vehicles. Crude and refinery product imports are represented by supply curves defined by the NEMS 

IEM. Products also can be imported from refining region 9 (Maritime Canada/Caribbean). Refinery product exports are provided 

by the IEM.

Capacity expansion of refinery process units and nonpetroleum liquid fuels production facilities is also modeled in the LFMM. The 

model uses current liquid fuels production capacity, the cost and performance of each production unit, expected fuel and feedstock 

costs, expected financial parameters, expected liquid fuels demand, and relevant environmental policies to project the optimal mix 

of new capacity that should be added in the future.

The LFMM includes representation of the renewable fuels standard (RFS) specified in EISA2007, which mandates the use of 36 

billion gallons of ethanol equivalent renewable fuel by 2022. Both domestic and imported biofuels count toward the RFS. Domestic 

ethanol production is modeled for three feedstock categories: corn, cellulosic plant materials, and advanced feedstock materials. 

Starch-based ethanol plants are numerous (more than 190 are now in operation, with a total maximum sustainable nameplate 

capacity of more than 14 billion gallons annually), and they are based on a well-known technology that converts starch and sugar 

into ethanol. Ethanol from cellulosic sources is a new technology with only a few small pilot plants in operation. Ethanol from 

advanced feedstocks—produced at ethanol refineries that ferment and distill grains other than corn, and reduce GHG emissions 

by at least 50 percent—is also a new technology modeled in the LFMM.

Fuels produced by Fischer-Tropsch synthesis and through a pyrolysis process are also modeled in the LFMM, based on their 

economics relative to competing feedstocks and products. The five processes modeled are CTL, CBTL, GTL, BTL, and pyrolysis.

Two California-specific policies are also represented in the LFMM: the low carbon fuel standard (LCFS) and the AB 32 cap-andtrade program. The LCFS requires the carbon intensity (amount of greenhouse gases per unit of energy) of transportation fuels 

sold for use in California to decrease according to a schedule published by the California Air Resources Board. California’s AB 

32 cap-and-trade program is established to help California achieve its goal of reducing CO2 emissions to 1990 levels by 2020. 

Working with other NEMS modules (IDM, EMM, and Emissions Policy Module), the LFMM provides emissions allowances and 

actual emissions of CO2 from California refineries, and NEMS provides the mechanism (carbon price) to trade allowances such 

that the total CO2 emissions cap is met.

Coal Market Module

The Coal Market Module (CMM) simulates mining, transportation, and pricing of coal, subject to end-use demand for coal 

differentiated by heat and sulfur content. U.S. coal production is represented in the CMM by 41 separate supply curves—

differentiated by region, mine type, coal rank, and sulfur content. The coal supply curves respond to capacity utilization of mines, 

mining capacity, labor productivity, and factor input costs (mining equipment, mining labor, and fuel requirements). Projections of 

U.S. coal distribution are determined by minimizing the cost of coal supplied, given coal demands by region and sector; environmental 

restrictions; and accounting for minemouth prices, transportation costs, and coal supply contracts. Over the projection horizon, 

coal transportation costs in the CMM vary in response to changes in the cost of rail investments.

The CMM produces projections of U.S. steam and metallurgical coal exports and imports in the context of world coal trade, 

determining the pattern of world coal trade flows that minimizes production and transportation costs while meeting a specified set 

of regional world coal import demands, subject to constraints on export capacities and trade flows. The international coal market 

component of the module computes trade in 3 types of coal for 17 export regions and 20 import regions. U.S. coal production and 

distribution are computed for 14 supply regions and 16 demand regions.
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Annual Energy Outlook 2013 cases

Table E1 provides a summary of the cases produced as part of AEO2013. For each case, the table gives the name used in AEO2013, 

a brief description of the major assumptions underlying the projections, and a reference to the pages in the body of the report and 

in this appendix where the case is discussed. The text sections following Table E1 describe the various cases in more detail. The 

Reference case assumptions for each sector are described in Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2013 [154]. Regional results 

and other details of the projections are available at website www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/tables_ref.cfm#supplement.

Macroeconomic growth cases

In addition to the AEO2013 Reference case, Low Economic Growth and High Economic Growth cases were developed to reflect 

the uncertainty in projections of economic growth. The alternative cases are intended to show the effects of alternative growth 

assumptions on energy market projections. The cases are described as follows:

•	 In the Reference case, population grows by 0.9 percent per year, nonfarm employment by 1.0 percent per year, and labor 

productivity by 1.9 percent per year from 2011 to 2040. Economic output as measured by real GDP increases by 2.5 percent per 

year from 2011 through 2040, and growth in real disposable income per capita averages 1.4 percent per year.

•	 The Low Economic Growth case assumes lower growth rates for population (0.8 percent per year) and labor productivity (1.4 

percent per year), resulting in lower nonfarm employment (0.8 percent per year), higher prices and interest rates, and lower 

growth in industrial output. In the Low Economic Growth case, economic output as measured by real GDP increases by 1.9 

percent per year from 2011 through 2040, and growth in real disposable income per capita averages 1.2 percent per year.

•	 The High Economic Growth case assumes higher growth rates for population (1.0 percent per year) and labor productivity 

(2.1 percent per year), resulting in higher nonfarm employment (1.1 percent per year). With higher productivity gains and 

employment growth, inflation and interest rates are lower than in the Reference case, and consequently economic output grows 

at a higher rate (2.9 percent per year) than in the Reference case (2.5 percent). Disposable income per capita grows by 1.6 

percent per year, compared with 1.4 percent in the Reference case.

Oil price cases

For AEO2013, the benchmark oil price is being re-characterized to represent Brent crude oil instead of WTI crude oil. This change 

is being made to better reflect the marginal price refineries pay for imported light, sweet crude oil, used to produce petroleum 

products for consumers. EIA will continue to report the WTI price, as it is a critical reference point to for evaluation of growing 

production in the mid-continent. EIA will also continue to report the Imported Refiner Acquisition Cost.

The historical record shows substantial variability in oil prices, and there is arguably even more uncertainty about future prices in 

the long term. AEO2013 considers three oil price cases (Reference, Low Oil Price, and High Oil Price) to allow an assessment of 

alternative views on the future course of oil prices.

The Low and High Oil Price cases reflect a wide range of potential price paths, resulting from variation in demand by countries 

outside the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) for petroleum and other liquid fuels due to different 

levels of economic growth. The Low and High Oil Price cases also reflect different assumptions about decisions by members of 

the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) regarding the preferred rate of oil production and about the future 

finding and development costs and accessibility of conventional structurally reservoired oil resources outside the United States.

•	 In the Reference case, real oil prices (in 2011 dollars) rise from $109 per barrel in 2011 to $163 per barrel in 2040. The Reference 

case represents EIA’s current judgment regarding exploration and development costs and accessibility of oil resources. It also 

assumes that OPEC producers will choose to maintain their share of the market and will schedule investments in incremental 

production capacity so that OPEC’s oil production will represent between 40 and 43 percent of the world’s total petroleum and 

other liquids production over the projection period.

•	 In the Low Oil Price case, crude oil prices are $75 per barrel (2011 dollars) in 2040. The low price results from lower demand 

for petroleum and other liquid fuels in the non-OECD nations. Lower demand is derived from lower economic growth relative 

to the Reference case. In this case, GDP growth in the non-OECD countries is lower on average relative to the Reference case in 

each projection year, beginning in 2013. The OECD projections are affected only by the price impact. On the supply side, OPEC 

countries increase their oil production to obtain a 49-percent share of total world petroleum and other liquids production in 

2040, and oil resources outside the United States are more accessible and/or less costly to produce (as a result of technology 

advances, more attractive fiscal regimes, or both) than in the Reference case.

•	 In the High Oil Price case, oil prices reach about $237 per barrel (2011 dollars) in 2040. The high prices result from higher 

demand for petroleum and other liquid fuels in the non-OECD nations. Higher demand is measured by higher economic growth 

relative to the Reference case. In this case, GDP growth in the non-OECD countries is higher on average relative to the Reference 

case in each projection year, beginning in 2013. The OECD projections are affected only by the price impact. On the supply side, 

OPEC countries reduce their market share to between 37 and 40 percent, and oil resources outside the United States are less 

accessible and/or more costly to produce than in the Reference case.
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NEMS overview and brief description of cases

Case name Description

Reference 

in text

Reference in 

Appendix E

Reference Real GDP grows at an average annual rate of 2.5 percent from 2011 to 2040. 

Crude oil prices rise to about $163 per barrel (2011 dollars) in 2040. Complete 

projection tables in Appendix A.

-- --

Low Economic Growth Real GDP grows at an average annual rate of 1.9 percent from 2011 to 2040. 

Other energy market assumptions are the same as in the Reference case. 

Partial projection tables in Appendix B.

p. 56 p. 214

High Economic Growth Real GDP grows at an average annual rate of 2.9 percent from 2011 to 2040. 

Other energy market assumptions are the same as in the Reference case. 

Partial projection tables in Appendix B.

p. 56 p. 214

Low Oil Price Low prices result from a combination of low demand for petroleum and other 

liquids in the non-OECD nations and higher global supply. Lower demand is 

measured by lower economic growth relative to the Reference case. On the 

supply side, OPEC increases its market share to 49 percent, and the costs of 

other liquids production technologies are lower than in the Reference case. 

Light, sweet crude oil prices fall to $75 per barrel in 2040. Partial projection 

tables in Appendix C.

p. 31 p. 214

High Oil Price High prices result from a combination of higher demand for petroleum and 

other liquids in the non-OECD nations and lower global supply. Higher demand 

is measured by higher economic growth relative to the Reference case. NonOPEC petroleum production expands more slowly in the short to middle term 

relative to the Reference case. Crude oil prices rise to $237 per barrel (2011 

dollars) in 2040. Partial projection tables in Appendix C.

p. 31 p. 214

No Sunset Begins with the Reference case and assumes extension of all existing energy 

policies and legislation that contain sunset provisions, except those requiring 

additional funding (e.g., loan guarantee programs) and those that involve 

extensive regulatory analysis, such as CAFE improvements and periodic 

updates of efficiency standards. Partial projection tables in Appendix D.

p. 25 p. 218

Extended Policies Begins with the No Sunset case and assumes an increase in the capacity 

limitations on the ITC and extension of the program. The case includes 

additional rounds of efficiency standards for residential and commercial 

products, as well as new standards for products not yet covered; adds multiple 

rounds of national building codes by 2026; and increases LDV fuel economy 

standards in the transportation sector to 57.7 miles per gallon in 2040. Partial 

projection tables in Appendix D.

p. 25 p. 218

Electricity: Low Nuclear Assumes that all nuclear plants are limited to a 60-year life (45 gigawatts of 

retirements), uprates are limited to the 1.3 gigawatts that have been reported 

to EIA, and planned additions are the same as in the Reference case. Partial 

projection tables in Appendix D.

p. 46 p. 219

Electricity: High Nuclear Assumes that all nuclear plants are life-extended beyond 60 years (except for 

one announced retirement), and uprates are the same as in the Reference case. 

New plants include those under construction and plants that have a scheduled 

U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) or Atomic Safety and Licensing 

Board hearing. Partial projection tables in Appendix D.

p. 47 p. 220

Electricity: 

Small Modular Reactor

Assumes that the characteristics of the new advanced nuclear technology are 

based on a small modular design rather than the AP1000. Partial projection 

tables in Appendix D.

p. 47 p. 220

Renewable Fuels: 

Low Renewable 

Technology Cost

Costs for new nonhydropower renewable generating technologies are 20 

percent lower than Reference case levels through 2040. Capital costs for new 

BTL technologies and biodiesel production technologies are reduced by 20 

percent relative to the Reference case through 2040. Partial projection tables in 

Appendix D.

p. 193 p. 218

Table E1. Summary of the AEO2013 cases
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NEMS overview and brief description of cases

Table E1. Summary of the AEO2013 cases (continued)

Case name Description

Reference 

in text

Reference in 

Appendix E

Oil and Gas: 

Low Oil and Gas Resource

Estimated ultimate recovery (EUR) per shale gas, tight gas, and tight oil well 

is 50 percent lower than in the Reference case. Partial projection tables in 

Appendix D.

p. 33 p. 220

Oil and Gas: 

High Oil and Gas Resource

Shale gas, tight gas, and tight oil well EURs are 100 percent higher than in the 

Reference case, and the maximum well spacing is assumed to be 40 acres. Also 

includes kerogen development, tight oil resources in Alaska, and 50 percent 

higher undiscovered resources in lower 48 offshore and Alaska than in the 

Reference case. Partial projection tables in Appendix D.

p. 33 p. 220

Liquids Market: 

Low/No Net Imports

Uses AEO2013 Reference case oil price, with assumed greater improvement 

in vehicle efficiency and lower vehicle technology costs; post-2025 increase 

in CAFE standards by 1.4 percent through 2040; lower vehicle miles traveled 

(VMT); expanded market availability of LNG/CNG in heavy-duty trucks, rail, 

and marine; higher GTL market penetration; optimistic battery case (AEO2012) 

assumptions for electric drivetrain vehicle costs; and greater availability of 

domestic petroleum supply (consistent with the High Oil and Gas Resource 

case). Also assumes increased market penetration of biomass pyrolysis 

oils, CTL, and BTL production. Also, initial assumptions associated with E85 

availability and maximum penetration of E15 are set to be more optimistic. 

Partial projection tables in Appendix D.

p. 33 p. 221

Liquids Market: 

High Net Imports

Uses AEO2013 Reference case oil price, with assumed lower improvement 

in vehicle efficiency (driven by limits on technology improvement and nonenforcement of CAFE standards), higher VMT, no change in LNG/CNG 

market availability, no change in GTL penetration, no change in biofuel market 

penetration from the Reference case, and lower availability of domestic 

petroleum supply (consistent with the Low Oil and Gas Resource case). Partial 

projection tables in Appendix D.

p. 33 p. 221

Coal: Low Coal Cost Regional productivity growth rates for coal mining are approximately 2.5 

percent per year higher than in the Reference case, and coal mining wages, 

mine equipment, and coal transportation rates are lower than in the Reference 

case, falling to about 25 percent below the Reference case in 2040. Partial 

projection tables in Appendix D.

p. 40 p. 221

Coal: High Coal Cost Regional productivity growth rates for coal mining are approximately 2.5 

percent per year lower than in the Reference case, and coal mining wages, 

mine equipment, and coal transportation rates are higher than in the 

Reference case, ranging between 25 and 32 percent above the Reference case 

in 2040. Partial projection tables in Appendix D.

p. 40 p. 221

Integrated 2012 

Demand Technology

Referred to in the text as “2012 Demand Technology.” Assumes that future 

equipment purchases in the residential and commercial sectors are based 

only on the range of equipment available in 2012. Building shell efficiency is 

held constant at 2012 levels. Energy efficiency of new industrial plant and 

equipment is held constant at the 2013 level over the projection period. Partial 

projection tables in Appendix D.

p. 61 p. 217

Integrated Best Available 

Demand Technology

Referred to in the text as “Best Available Demand Technology.” Assumes 

that all future equipment purchases in the residential and commercial sectors 

are made from a menu of technologies that includes only the most efficient 

models available in a particular year, regardless of cost. Residential building 

shells for new construction are built to the most efficient specifications 

after 2012, and existing residential shells have twice the improvement of 

the Reference case. New and existing commercial building shell efficiencies 

improve 50 percent more than in the Reference case by 2040. Industrial and 

transportation sector assumptions are the same as in the Reference case. 

Partial projection tables in Appendix D.

p. 61 p. 217
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NEMS overview and brief description of cases

Case name Description

Reference 

in text

Reference in 

Appendix E

Integrated High Demand 

Technology

Referred to in the text as High Demand Technology. Assumes earlier 

availability, lower costs, and higher efficiencies for more advanced residential 

and commercial equipment. For new residential construction, building shell 

efficiencies are assumed to meet ENERGY STAR requirements after 2016. 

Existing residential shell exhibits 50 percent more improvement than in the 

Reference case after 2012. New and existing commercial building shells are 

assumed to improve 25 percent more than in the Reference case by 2040. 

For the industrial sector, assumes earlier availability, lower costs, and higher 

efficiency for more advanced equipment and a more rapid rate of improvement 

in the recovery of biomass byproducts from industrial processes. In the 

transportation sector, the characteristics of conventional and alternative-fuel 

LDVs reflect more optimistic assumptions about incremental improvements 

in fuel economy and costs. Freight trucks are assumed to see more rapid 

improvement in fuel efficiency for engine and emissions control technologies. 

More optimistic assumptions for fuel efficiency improvements are also made 

for the air, rail, and shipping sectors. Partial projection tables in Appendix D.

p. 61 p. 217

No GHG Concern No GHG emissions reduction policy is enacted, and market investment 

decisions are not altered in anticipation of such a policy. Partial projection 

tables in Appendix D.

p. 87 p. 222

GHG10 Applies a price for CO2 emissions throughout the economy, starting at $10 

per metric ton in 2014 and rising by 5 percent per year through 2040. Partial 

projection tables in Appendix D.

p. 86 p. 222

GHG15 Applies a price for CO2 emissions throughout the economy, starting at $15 

per metric ton in 2014 and rising by 5 percent per year through 2040. Partial 

projection tables in Appendix D.

p. 86 p. 222

GHG25 Applies a price for CO2 emissions throughout the economy, starting at $25 

per metric ton in 2014 and rising by 5 percent per year through 2040. Partial 

projection tables in Appendix D.

p. 86 p. 222

GHG10 and 

Low Gas Prices

Combines GHG10 and High Oil and Gas Resource cases. Partial projection 

tables in Appendix D.

p. 89 p. 222

GHG15 and 

Low Gas Prices

Combines GHG15 and High Oil and Gas Resource cases. Partial projection 

tables in Appendix D.

p. 89 p. 222

GHG25 and 

Low Gas Prices

Combines GHG25 and High Oil and Gas Resource cases. Partial projection 

tables in Appendix D.

p. 89 p. 222

Table E1. Summary of the AEO2013 cases (continued)

Buildings sector cases

In addition to the AEO2013 Reference case, three technology-focused cases using the Demand Modules of NEMS were developed 

to examine the effects of changes in technology.

Residential sector assumptions for the technology-focused cases are as follows:

•	 The Integrated 2012 Demand Technology case assumes that all future residential equipment purchases are limited to the 

range of equipment available in 2012. Existing building shell efficiencies are assumed to be fixed at 2012 levels (no further 

improvements). For new construction, building shell technology options are constrained to those available in 2012.

•	 The Integrated High Demand Technology case assumes that residential advanced equipment is available earlier, at lower 

costs, and/or at higher efficiencies [155]. Existing building shell efficiencies exhibit 50 percent more improvement than in the 

Reference case after 2012. For new construction, building shell efficiencies are assumed to meet ENERGY STAR requirements 

after 2016. Consumers evaluate investments in energy efficiency at a 7-percent real discount rate.

•	 The Integrated Best Available Demand Technology case assumes that all future residential equipment purchases are made 

from a menu of technologies that includes only the most efficient models available in a particular year for each technology 

class, regardless of cost. Existing building shell efficiencies have twice the improvement of the Reference case after 2012. For 

new construction, building shell efficiencies are assumed to meet the criteria for the most efficient components after 2012. 

Consumers evaluate investments in energy efficiency at a 7-percent real discount rate.

Commercial sector assumptions for the technology-focused cases are as follows:

•	 The Integrated 2012 Demand Technology case assumes that all future commercial equipment purchases are limited to the 

range of equipment available in 2012. Building shell efficiencies are assumed to be fixed at 2012 levels.
218 U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013

NEMS overview and brief description of cases

•	 The Integrated High Demand Technology case assumes that commercial advanced equipment is available earlier, at lower 

costs, and/or with higher efficiencies than in the Reference case. Energy efficiency investments are evaluated at a 7-percent 

real discount rate. For new and existing buildings in 2040, building shell efficiencies are assumed to show 25 percent more 

improvement than in the Reference case.

•	 The Integrated Best Available Demand Technology case assumes that all future commercial equipment purchases are made 

from a menu of technologies that includes only the most efficient models available in a particular year for each technology class, 

regardless of cost. Energy efficiency investments are evaluated at a 7-percent real discount rate. For new and existing buildings 

in 2040, building shell efficiencies are assumed to show 50 percent more improvement than in the Reference case.

The Residential and Commercial Demand Modules of NEMS were also used to complete the Low Renewable Technology Cost 

case, which is discussed in more detail below, in the renewable fuels cases section. In combination with assumptions for electricity 

generation from renewable fuels in the electric power sector and industrial sector, this sensitivity case analyzes the impacts of 

changes in generating technologies that use renewable fuels and in the availability of renewable energy sources. For the Residential 

and Commercial Demand Modules:

•	 The Low Renewable Technology Cost case assumes greater improvements in residential and commercial PV and wind systems 

than in the Reference case. The assumptions for capital cost estimates are 20 percent below Reference case assumptions from 

2013 through 2040.

The No Sunset and Extended Policies cases described below in the cross-cutting integrated cases discussion also include 

assumptions in the Residential and Commercial Demand Modules of NEMS. The Extended Policies case builds on the No Sunset 

case and adds multiple rounds of appliance standards and building codes as described below.

•	 The No Sunset case assumes that selected federal policies with sunset provisions will be extended indefinitely rather than 

allowed to sunset as the law currently prescribes. For the residential sector, these extensions include personal tax credits for 

PV installations, solar water heaters, small wind turbines, and geothermal heat pumps. For the commercial sector, business 

ITCs for PV installations, solar water heaters, small wind turbines, geothermal heat pumps, and CHP are extended to the end 

of the projection. The business tax credit for solar technologies remains at the current 30-percent level without reverting to 10 

percent as scheduled. On January 1, 2013, the law was modified to reinstate tax credits for energy-efficient homes and selected 

residential appliances. The tax credits that had expired on December 31, 2011, are now extended through December 31, 2013. 

This change was made after the completion of AEO2013 and is not reflected in the analysis.

•	 The Extended Policies case includes updates to federal appliance standards, as prescribed by the timeline in DOE’s multi-year 

plan, and introduces new standards for products currently not covered by DOE. Efficiency levels for the updated residential 

appliance standards are based on current ENERGY STAR guidelines. End-use technologies eligible for No Sunset incentives 

are not subject to new standards. Efficiency levels for updated commercial equipment standards are based on the technology 

menu from the AEO2013 Reference case and purchasing specifications for federal agencies designated by the Federal Energy 

Management Program. The case also adds national building codes to reach a 30-percent improvement in 2020 relative to the 

2006 International Energy Conservation Code for residential households and to American Society of Heating, Refrigerating, and 

Air-Conditioning Engineers Standard 90.1-2004 for commercial buildings, with additional rounds of improved codes in 2023 

and 2026.

Industrial sector cases

In addition to the AEO2013 Reference case, two technology-focused cases using the IDM of NEMS were developed that examine 

the effects of less rapid and more rapid technology change and adoption. The energy intensity changes discussed in this section 

exclude the refining industry, which is modeled separately from the IDM in the LFMM. Different assumptions for the IDM were 

also used as part of the Integrated Low Renewable Technology Cost case, No Sunset case, and Extended Policies case, but each is 

structured on a set of the initial industrial assumptions used for the Integrated 2012 Demand Technology case and Integrated High 

Demand Technology case. The IDM assumptions for the Industrial High Resource case and the Industrial Low Resource case are 

based only on the Integrated High Demand Technology case. For the industrial sector, assumptions for the two technology-focused 

cases are as follows:

•	 For the Integrated 2012 Demand Technology case, the energy efficiency of new industrial plant and equipment is held constant 

at the 2013 level over the projection period. Changes in aggregate energy intensity may result both from changing equipment and 

production efficiency and from changing composition of output within an individual industry. Because all AEO2013 side cases 

are integrated runs, potential feedback effects from energy market interactions are captured. Hence, the level and composition 

of overall industrial output varies from the Reference case, and any change in energy intensity in the two technology side cases 

is attributable to process and efficiency changes and increased use of CHP, as well as changes in the level and composition of 

overall industrial output.

•	 For the Integrated High Demand Technology case, the IDM assumes earlier availability, lower costs, and higher efficiency for 

more advanced equipment [156] and a more rapid rate of improvement in the recovery of biomass byproducts from industrial 

processes—i.e., 0.7 percent per year, as compared with 0.4 percent per year in the Reference case. The same assumption is 
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013 219

NEMS overview and brief description of cases

incorporated in the Low Renewable Technology Cost case, which focuses on electricity generation. Although the choice of the 

0.7-percent annual rate of improvement in byproduct recovery is an assumption in the High Demand Technology case, it is 

based on the expectation of higher recovery rates and substantially increased use of CHP in that case. Due to integration with 

other NEMS modules, potential feedback effects from energy market interactions are captured.

The No Sunset and Extended Policies cases described below in the cross-cutting integrated cases discussion also include 

assumptions in the IDM of NEMS. The Extended Policies case builds on the No Sunset case and modifies selected industrial 

assumptions as follows:

•	 The No Sunset case and Extended Policies case include an assumption for CHP that extends the existing ITC for industrial CHP 

through the end of the projection period. Additionally, the Extended Policies case includes an increase in the capacity limitations 

on the ITC by increasing the cap on CHP equipment from 15 megawatts to 25 megawatts and eliminating the system-wide cap 

of 50 megawatts. These assumptions are based on the current proposals in H.R. 2750 and H.R. 2784 of the 112th Congress. 

The decline in natural gas prices related to increased domestics shale gas production is addressed in two cases, which assumer 

higher and lower shale gas resources than projected in the Reference case.

Transportation sector cases

In addition to the AEO2013 Reference case, the NEMS Transportation Demand Module was used as part of four AEO2013 side cases.

The Transportation Demand Module was used to examine the effects of advanced technology costs and efficiency improvement 

for technology adoption and vehicle fuel economy as part of the Integrated High Demand Technology case [157]. For the Integrated 

High Demand Technology case, the characteristics of conventional and alternative-fuel LDVs reflect more optimistic assumptions 

about incremental improvements in fuel economy and costs. In the freight truck sector, the Integrated High Demand Technology 

case assumes more rapid incremental improvement in fuel efficiency and lower costs for engine and emissions control technologies. 

More optimistic assumptions for fuel efficiency improvements are also made for the air, rail, and shipping sectors.

The Transportation Demand Module was used to examine the effects of an extension to the LDV GHG Emissions and CAFE 

Standards beyond 2025 as part of the Extended Policies case. The joint EPA and NHTSA CAFE Standards were increased after 

2025, at an average annual rate of 1.4 percent through 2040, for a combined average LDV fuel economy of 57.7 miles per gallon 

in 2040.

Assumptions in the NEMS Transportation Demand Module were also modified for the Low/No Net Imports case. This case examines 

the effects of decreased VMT on the LDV transportation sector. It includes more optimistic assumptions about improvements in 

LDV fuel economy and reductions in LDV technology costs, lower VMT, an extension of the LDV CAFE standards beyond 2025 at 

an average annual rate of 1.4 percent through 2040, expanded market availability of LNG/CNG fuels for heavy-duty trucks, rail, 

and marine. It uses the assumptions from the optimistic battery case (AEO2012) for electric vehicle battery and drivetrain costs.

In the High Net Imports case, the assumptions used in the NEMS Transportation Demand Module were adjusted to incorporate a 

more pessimistic outlook. This case assumes lower improvement in LDV fuel economy (driven by limits on technology improvement 

and non-enforcement of CAFE standards), higher VMT, no change in LNG/CNG market availability, and no change in biofuel 

market penetration from the Reference case.

Electricity sector cases

In addition to the Reference case, several integrated cases with alternative electric power assumptions were developed to support 

discussions in the “Issues in focus” section of AEO2013. Three alternative cases were run for nuclear power plants, to address 

uncertainties about the operating lives of existing reactors and the potential for new nuclear capacity and capacity uprates at 

existing plants. These cases are discussed in the “Issues in focus” article, “Nuclear power through 2040.”

Nuclear cases

•	 The Low Nuclear case assumes that reactors will not receive a second license renewal, so that all existing nuclear plants are 

retired within 60 years of operation. The reported retirement at Oyster Creek occurs as currently planned, at the end of 2019. 

Also, Kewaunee is retired at the end of 2014, based on an announcement by Dominion Resources in late 2012 stating their 

intention to retire the unit in the next few years. Additionally, two units that are currently out of service are assumed to be 

permanently shut down in the Low Nuclear case. San Onofre 2 and Crystal River 3 currently are not operating, but they are 

assumed to be returned to service in 2015 in the Reference case. In the Low Nuclear case they are retired in 2013. In the 

Reference case, existing plants are assumed to run as long as they continue to be economic, implicitly assuming that a second 

20-year license renewal would occur for most plants that reach 60 years of operation before 2040. The Low Nuclear case was 

run to analyze the impact of additional nuclear retirements. In this case, no plants receive license extensions beyond 60 years, 

and 45 gigawatts of nuclear capacity is assumed to be retired by 2040. The Low Nuclear case assumes that no new nuclear 

capacity will be added throughout the projection, excluding capacity already planned or under construction. It also assumes that 

only those capacity uprates already reported to EIA (1.3 gigawatts) will be completed. The Reference case assumes additional 

uprates based on NRC surveys and industry reports.
220 U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013

NEMS overview and brief description of cases

•	 The High Nuclear case assumes that all existing nuclear units will receive a second license renewal and operate beyond 60 

years (excluding one announced retirement). In the Reference case, beyond the announced retirement of Oyster Creek, an 

additional 6.5 gigawatts of nuclear capacity is assumed to be retired through 2040, reflecting uncertainty about the impacts 

and/or costs of future aging. The High Nuclear case was run to provide a more optimistic outlook, with all licenses renewed and 

all plants continuing to operate economically beyond 60 years. The High Nuclear case also assumes that additional planned 

nuclear capacity is completed, based on combined license applications issued by the NRC and where an NRC or Atomic Safety 

and Licensing Board hearing has been scheduled. The Reference case assumes that 5.5 gigawatts of planned capacity are 

added, compared with 13.3 gigawatts of planned capacity additions in the High Nuclear case.

•	 The Small Modular Reactor case assumes that new advanced nuclear plants built after 2025 will be based on a smaller modular 

design rather than the larger AP1000 design used in the Reference case. The overnight costs are assumed to be the same 

as in the Reference case, but the construction lead time is reduced from 6 years to 3 years for the smaller design. The fixed 

operating and maintenance costs are assumed to be higher for the smaller design. To account for the time necessary for design 

certification, the first available online date for the small reactors is assumed to be 2025.

Renewable generation cases

In addition to the AEO2013 Reference case, EIA developed a case with alternative assumptions about renewable generation 

technologies and policies to examine the effects of more aggressive improvement in the costs of renewable technologies.

•	 In the Low Renewable Technology Cost case, the levelized costs of new nonhydropower renewable generating technologies are 

assumed to be 20 percent below Reference case assumptions from 2013 through 2040. In general, lower costs are represented 

by reducing the capital costs of new plant construction. Biomass fuel supplies also are assumed to be 20 percent less expensive 

than in the Reference case for the same resource quantities. Assumptions for other generating technologies are unchanged 

from those in the Reference case. In the Low Renewable Technology Cost case, the rate of improvement in recovery of biomass 

byproducts from industrial processes also is increased.

•	 In the No Sunset case and the Extended Policies case, expiring federal tax credits targeting renewable electricity are assumed 

to be permanently extended. This applies to the PTC, which is a tax credit of 2.2 cents per kilowatthour available for the first 

10 years of production by new generators using wind, geothermal, and certain biomass fuels, or a tax credit of 1.1 cents per 

kilowatthour available for the first 10 years of production by new generators using geothermal energy, certain hydroelectric 

technologies, and biomass fuels not eligible for the full credit of 2.2 cents per kilowatthour. This tax credit had been scheduled 

to expire on December 31, 2012 for wind and 1 year later for other eligible technologies. The same schedule applies to the 

30-percent ITC, which is available to new solar installations through December 31, 2016, and may also be claimed in lieu of the 

PTC for eligible technologies, expiring concurrently with the PTC (described above). On January 1, 2013, the law was modified to 

extend the expiration date for wind by one full year and to allow new plants using any eligible technology to qualify if they were 

under construction by the deadline—not actually in commercial service by the deadline, as was previously required. However, 

this change occurred too late to allow for inclusion in this report.

Oil and gas supply cases

The sensitivity of the AEO2013 projections to changes in assumptions regarding technically recoverable domestic crude oil and 

natural gas resources is examined in two cases. These cases do not represent a confidence interval for future domestic oil and 

natural gas supply but rather provide a framework to examine the impact of higher and lower domestic supply on energy demand, 

imports, and prices. Assumptions associated with these cases are described below.

•	 In the Low Oil and Gas Resource case, the EUR per tight oil, tight gas, and shale gas well is assumed to be 50 percent lower 

than in the Reference case, increasing the per-unit cost of developing the resource. The total unproved technically recoverable 

resource (TRR) of crude oil is decreased to 168 billion barrels, and the natural gas resource is decreased to 1,500 trillion cubic 

feet, as compared with unproved resource estimates of 197 billion barrels of crude oil and 2,022 trillion cubic feet of natural gas 

in the Reference case as of January 1, 2011.

•	 In the High Oil and Gas Resource case, the resource assumptions are adjusted to give continued increase in domestic crude 

oil production after 2020, reaching over 10 million barrels per day. This case includes: (1) 100 percent higher EUR per tight 

oil, tight gas, and shale gas well than in the Reference case and a maximum well spacing of 40 acres, to reflect the possibility 

that additional layers of low-permeability zones are identified and developed, compared with well spacing that ranges from 

20 to 406 acres with an average of 100 acres in the Reference case; (2) kerogen development reaching 135,000 barrels per 

day in 2025; (3) tight oil development in Alaska increasing the total Alaska TRR by 1.9 billion barrels; and (4) 50 percent 

higher technically recoverable undiscovered resources in Alaska and the offshore lower 48 states than in the Reference case. 

Additionally, a few offshore Alaska fields are assumed to be discovered and thus developed earlier than in the Reference case. 

Given the higher natural gas resource in this case, the maximum penetration rate for GTL was increased to 10 percent per year, 

compared to a rate of 5 percent per year in the Reference case.
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NEMS overview and brief description of cases

Liquids market cases

Two sensitivity cases have been designed to analyze petroleum imports in the United States. Assumptions associated with these 

cases are described below.

•	 In the Low/No Net Imports case, changes were made to various NEMS modeling assumptions that, in comparison with the 

AEO2013 reference case, resulted in higher domestic production of crude oil and natural gas, lower domestic liquid fuels 

demand, and higher domestic production of nonpetroleum liquids. The methodology used to achieve higher domestic crude 

production is the same as that used in the High Oil and Gas Resource case (described in the “Oil and gas supply cases” section 

above). Domestic liquid fuels demand was reduced by changes made in the Transportation Demand Module. As described in 

the “Transportation sector cases” section, this included the use of more optimistic assumptions about improvements in LDV 

fuel economy and reductions in LDV technology costs; lower VMT due to changes in consumer behavior; an extension of the 

LDV CAFE standards beyond 2025 at an average annual rate of 1.4 percent through 2040; expanded market availability of 

LNG/CNG fuels for heavy-duty trucks, rail, and marine; and use of assumptions from the optimistic battery case (AEO2012) 

for electric vehicle battery and drivetrain costs. Within the LFMM, the assumption for market penetration of biomass pyrolysis 

oils, CTL, and BTL production was more optimistic. Also, initial assumptions associated with E85 availability and maximum 

penetration of E15 were set to be more optimistic, such that E85 availability was nearly three times the Reference case level in 

2040, and E15 penetration was about 15 percent higher by 2040.

•	 In the High Net Imports case, changes were made in two NEMS modules to reduce domestic crude oil production and increase 

domestic demand for liquid fuels, as compared with the Reference case. The methodology used to achieve lower domestic crude 

production is the same as that used in the Low Oil and Gas Resource case described above. An increase in domestic liquids fuels 

demand was achieved by assuming lower improvement in vehicle efficiency (driven by limits on technology improvement and 

non-enforcement of CAFE standards and resulting in a lower number of alternatively fueled vehicles, including hybrid, plug-in 

hybrid, and battery electric vehicles); higher VMT; no change in LNG/CNG market availability; no change in GTL penetration; 

and no change in biofuel market penetration compared with the Reference case.

Coal market cases

Two alternative coal cost cases examine the impacts on U.S. coal supply, demand, distribution, and prices that result from alternative 

assumptions about mining productivity, labor costs, mine equipment costs, and coal transportation rates. The alternative productivity 

and cost assumptions are applied in every year from 2013 through 2040. For the coal cost cases, adjustments to the Reference case 

assumptions for coal mining productivity are based on variation in the average annual productivity growth of 2.5 percent observed 

since 2000 for mines in Wyoming’s Powder River Basin and 2.4 percent for other coal-producing regions. Transportation rates 

are lowered (in the Low Coal Cost case) or raised (in the High Coal Cost case) from Reference case levels to achieve a 25-percent 

change in rates relative to the Reference case in 2040. The Low and High Coal Cost cases represent fully integrated NEMS runs, with 

feedback from the macroeconomic activity, international, supply, conversion, and end-use demand modules.

•	 In the Low Coal Cost case, the average annual growth rates for coal mining productivity are higher than those in the Reference 

case and are applied at the supply curve level. As an example, the average annual productivity growth rate for Wyoming’s 

Southern Powder River Basin supply curve is increased from -1.6 percent in the Reference case for the years 2013 through 

2040 to 0.9 percent in the Low Coal Cost case. Coal mining wages, mine equipment costs, and other mine supply costs all 

are assumed to be about 25 percent lower in 2040 in real terms in the Low Coal Cost case than in the Reference case. Coal 

transportation rates, excluding the impact of fuel surcharges, are assumed to be 25 percent lower in 2040.

•	 In the High Coal Cost case, the average annual productivity growth rates for coal mining are lower than those in the Reference 

case and are applied as described in the Low Coal Cost case. Coal mining wages, mine equipment costs, and other mine supply 

costs in 2040 are assumed to be about 32 percent higher than in the Reference case, and coal transportation rates in 2040 are 

assumed to be 25 percent higher.

Additional data on productivity, wage, mine equipment cost, and coal transportation rate assumptions for the Reference and 

alternative coal cost cases are shown in Appendix D.

Cross-cutting integrated cases

A series of cross-cutting integrated cases are used in AEO2013 to analyze specific cases with broader sectoral impacts. For example, 

three integrated technology progress cases analyze the impacts of faster and slower technology improvement in the demand 

sector (partially described in the sector-specific sections above). In addition, seven cases were run with alternative assumptions 

about expectations of future regulation of GHG emissions.

Integrated technology cases

In the demand sectors (residential, commercial, industrial, and transportation), technology improvement typically means greater 

efficiency and/or reduced technology cost. Three alternative demand technology cases—Integrated 2012 Demand Technology, 

Integrated Best Available Demand Technology, and Integrated High Demand Technology cases—are used in AEO2013 to examine 

the potential impacts of variation in the rate of technology improvement in the end-use demand sectors, independent of any 
222 U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013

NEMS overview and brief description of cases

offsetting impacts of variations in technology improvement in the supply/conversion sectors. Assumptions for each end-use sector 

are described in the sector-specific sections above.

No Sunset case

In addition to the AEO2013 Reference case a No Sunset case was run, assuming that selected federal policies with sunset 

provisions—such as the PTC, ITC, and tax credits for renewable and CHP equipment in the buildings and industrial sectors—will be 

extended indefinitely rather than allowed to sunset as the law currently prescribes. Specific assumptions for each end-use sector 

and for renewables are described in the sector-specific sections above.

Extended Policies case

In the Extended Policies case, assumptions for tax credit extensions are the same as in the No Sunset case described above. 

Further, updates to federal appliance efficiency standards are assumed to occur at regular intervals, and new standards for 

products not currently covered by DOE are assumed to be introduced. Finally, fuel economy standards for LDVs, including both 

passenger cars and light-duty trucks, are assumed to continue increasing after 2025. Specific assumptions for each end-use 

sector and for renewables are described in the sector-specific sections above. 

Greenhouse gas cases

Given concerns about climate change and possible future policy actions to limit GHG emissions, regulators and the investment 

community are beginning to push energy companies to invest in technologies that are less GHG-intensive. To reflect the market’s 

current reaction to potential future GHG regulation, a 3-percentage-point increase in the cost of capital is assumed for investments 

in new coal-fired power plants without CCS and for all capital investment projects at existing coal-fired power plants in the 

Reference case and all other AEO2013 cases except the No GHG Concern case, GHG10 case, GHG15 case, GHG25 case, GHG10 

and Low Gas Prices case, GHG15 and Low Gas Prices case, and GHG25 and Low Gas Prices case. Those assumptions affect cost 

evaluations for the construction of new capacity but not the actual operating costs when a new plant begins operation.

The seven alternative GHG cases are used to provide a range of potential outcomes, from no concern about future GHG legislation 

to the imposition of a specific economywide carbon emissions price, as well as an examination of the impact of a combination of 

specific economywide carbon emissions prices and low natural gas prices. AEO2013 includes six economywide CO2 price cases, 

combining three levels of carbon prices with two alternative gas price projections. In the GHG10 case and GHG10 and Low Gas 

Prices case, the carbon emissions price is set at $10 per metric ton CO2 in 2014. In the GHG15 case and GHG15 and Low Gas 

Prices case, the carbon emissions price is set at $15 per metric ton CO2 in 2014. In the GHG25 case and GHG25 and Low Gas 

Prices case, the price is set at $25 per metric ton CO2 in 2014. In all cases the price begins to rise in 2014 at 5 percent per year. The 

GHG10, GHG15, and GHG25 cases use the Reference case assumptions regarding oil and gas resource availability. The GHG10 

and Low Gas Prices case, GHG15 and Low Gas Prices case, and GHG25 and Low Gas Prices case use the assumptions from the 

High Oil and Gas Resource case, as described above in the “Oil and gas supply” section. The GHG cases are intended to measure 

the sensitivity of the AEO2013 projections to a range of implicit or explicit valuations of CO2. At the time AEO2013 was completed, 

no legislation including a GHG price was pending; however, the EPA is developing technology-based CO2 standards for new coalfired power plants. In the GHG cases for AEO2013, no assumptions are made with regard to offsets, policies to promote CCS, or 

specific policies to mitigate impacts in selected sectors.

The No GHG Concern case was run without any adjustment for concern about potential GHG regulations (without the 3-percentagepoint increase in the cost of capital). In the No GHG Concern case, the same cost of capital is used to evaluate all new capacity 

builds, regardless of type.
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013 223

NEMS overview and brief description of cases

148. U.S. Energy Information Administration, The National Energy Modeling System: An Overview 2009, DOE/EIA-0581(2009) 

(Washington, DC: October 2009), website www.eia.gov/oiaf/aeo/overview.

149. U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Review 2011, DOE/EIA-0384(2011) (Washington, DC: September 

2012), website www.eia.gov/aer.

150. U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook September 2012 (Washington, DC: September 2012), 

website www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo/archives/Sep12.pdf. Portions of the preliminary information were also used to initialize 

the NEMS Liquids Fuels Market Module projection.

151. U.S. Energy Information Administration, “Short-Term Energy Outlook” (Washington, DC: January 2013), website www.eia.

gov/forecasts/steo/outlook.cfm.

152. U.S. Energy Information Administration, Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2013, DOE/EIA-0554(2013) (Washington, 

DC: April 2013), website www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/assumptions.

153. Alternative other liquids technologies include all biofuels technologies plus CTL and GTL.

154. U.S. Energy Information Administration, Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2013, DOE/EIA-0554(2013) (Washington, 

DC: April 2013), website www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/assumptions.

155. High technology assumptions for the buildings sector are based on U.S. Energy Information Administration, EIA—Technology 

Forecast Updates—Residential and Commercial Building Technologies—Advanced Case (Navigant Consulting, Inc. with SAIC, 

September 2011), and EIA—Technology Forecast Updates—Residential and Commercial Building Technologies—Advanced Case

(Navigant Consulting, Inc. with SAIC, November 2012).

156. These assumptions are based in part on U.S. Energy Information Administration, Industrial Technology and Data Analysis 

Supporting the NEMS Industrial Model (FOCIS Associates, October 2005).

157. U.S. Energy Information Administration, Documentation of Technologies Included in the NEMS Fuel Economy Model for Passenger 

Cars and Light Trucks (Energy and Environmental Analysis, September 2003).

Endnotes for Appendix E

Links current as of March 2013
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U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013 225

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Office of Energy Analysis.

U.S. Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Outlook 2010 213

Appendix F

Regional Maps

Figure F1. United States Census Divisions

Pacific

East South Central

South Atlantic

Middle

Atlantic

New

England

West

South

Central

West

North

Central East

North

Central

Mountain

AK

WA

MT

ID WY

NV

UT

CO

AZ

NM

TX

OK

IA

KS MO

IL

IN

KY

TN

MS AL

FL

GA

SC

NC

WV

PA NJ

MD

DE

NY

CT

VT ME

RI

MA

NH

VA

WI

MI

OH

NE

SD

ND MN

AR

LA

OR

CA

HI

Middle Atlantic

New England

East North Central

West North Central

Pacific

West South Central

East South Central

South Atlantic

Mountain

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting.

Appendix F

Regional Maps

Figure F1. United States Census Divisions
226 U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013

Regional maps

Figure F1. United States Census Divisions (continued)

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Office of Energy Analysis.

Division 1

New England

Connecticut

Maine

Massachusetts

New Hampshire

Rhode Island

Vermont

Division 2

Middle Atlantic

New Jersey

New York

Pennsylvania

Division 3

East North 

Central

Illinois

Indiana

Michigan

Ohio

Wisconsin

Division 4

West North 

Central

Iowa

Kansas

Minnesota

Missouri

Nebraska

North Dakota

South Dakota

Division 5

South Atlantic

Delaware

District of

 Columbia

Florida

Georgia

Maryland

North Carolina

South Carolina

Virginia

West Virginia

Division 6

East South 

Central

Alabama

Kentucky

Mississippi

Tennessee

Division 7

West South 

Central

Arkansas

Louisiana

Oklahoma

Texas

Division 8

Mountain

Arizona

Colorado

Idaho

Montana

Nevada

New Mexico

Utah

Wyoming

Division 9

Pacific

Alaska

California

Hawaii

Oregon

Washington
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013 227

Regional maps

Figure F2. Electricity market module regions

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Office of Energy Analysis.

1

2

3

4

8 5

9

10

11

12

13

14

15 16

17

18 19

20

21

22

6

7

1. ERCT TRE All

2. FRCC FRCC All

3. MROE MRO East

4. MROW MRO West

5. NEWE NPCC New England

6. NYCW NPCC NYC/Westchester

7. NYLI NPCC Long Island

8. NYUP NPCC Upstate NY

9. RFCE RFC East

10. RFCM RFC Michigan

11. RFCW RFC West

12. SRDA SERC Delta

13. SRGW SERC Gateway

14. SRSE SERC Southeastern

15. SRCE SERC Central

16. SRVC SERC VACAR

17. SPNO SPP North

18. SPSO SPP South

19. AZNM WECC Southwest

20. CAMX WECC California

21. NWPP WECC Northwest

22. RMPA WECC Rockies
228 U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013

Regional maps

Source

Maritime Canada

Caribbean

PADD V -

other

PADD II

lakes

PADD V -

California

PADD V -

other PADD III -

Gulf

PADD III -

inland

PADD I

PADD II -

inland

PADD IV

Trinidad

& Tobago

Newfoundland

Nova

Scotia

New

Brunswick

Puerto Rico Trinidad

& Tobago

Newfoundland

Nova

Scotia

New

Brunswick

Puerto Rico

LFMM regions

PADD I

PADD II inland

PADD	II	lakes

PADD III Gulf

PADD III inland

PADD IV

PADD V California

PADD V other

Maritime Canada; Caribbean

PADD boundary

Figure F3. Liquid fuels market module regions

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Office of Energy Analysis.
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013 229

Regional maps

Figure F4. Oil and gas supply model regions

Figure F4. Oil and Gas Supply Model Regions

Atlantic

WA MT

ID WY

NV

UT CO

AZ NM

TX

OK

IA

KS MO

IL

IN

KY

TN

MS AL

FL

GA

SC

NC

WV

PA NJ

MD

DE

NY

CT

ME

RI

MA

NH

VA

WI

MI

OH NE

SD

ND MN

AR

LA

OR

CA

VT

Northeast (1)

Gulf of Mexico

Gulf Coast (2)

Midcontinent (3)

Rocky Mountain (5)

West Coast (6)

Pacific

Offshore

North Slope

AK

TX

TX

NM

TX

Southwest (4)

Onshore

North Slope

Other

Alaska

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Office of Integrated Analysis and Foreca

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Office of Energy Analysis. 
230 U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013

Regional maps

Figure F5. Natural gas transmission and distribution model regions

218 U.S. Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Outlook 2010

Figure F5. Natural Gas Transmission and Distribution Model Regions

Pacific

(9)

Mountain

(8)

CA

(12)

AZ/NM

(11)

W. North Central

(4)

W. South Central

(7)

E. South

Central

(6)

E. North

Central

(3)

S. Atlantic

(5)

FL

(10)

Mid.

Atlantic

(2)

New

Engl.

(1)

W. Canada

E. Canada

MacKenzie

Alaska

Canada

Offshore

and LNG

Mexico

Bahamas

Primary Flows

Secondary Flows

Pipeline Border Crossing

LNG Imports

Pacific

(9)

Mountain

(8)

CA

(12)

AZ/NM

(11)

W. North Central

(4)

W. South Central

(7)

E. South

Central

(6)

E. North

Central

(3)

S. Atlantic

(5)

FL

(10)

Mid.

Atlantic

(2)

New

Engl.

(1)

W. Canada

E. Canada

MacKenzie

Alaska

Canada

Offshore

and LNG

Mexico

Bahamas

Primary Flows

Secondary Flows

Pipeline Border Crossing

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Office of Energy Analysis.
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013 231

Regional maps

Figure F6. Coal supply regions

WA

OR ID

CA

NV

UT

TX

OK

AR

MO

LA

MS

AL

GA

FL

TN

SC

NC

KY VA

WV

WY

CO

SD

ND

MI

MN

WI

IL

IN OH

MD

PA NJ

DE

CT

MA

NH

VT

NY

ME

RI

MT

NE

IA

KS

MI

AZ

NM

500 0

SCALE IN MILES

APPALACHIA

Northern Appalachia

Central Appalachia

Southern Appalachia

INTERIOR

NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS

Eastern Interior

Western Interior

Gulf Lignite

Dakota Lignite

Western Montana

Wyoming, Northern Powder River Basin

Wyoming, Southern Powder River Basin

Western Wyoming

OTHER WEST

Rocky Mountain

Southwest

Northwest

KY

AK

1000 0

SCALE IN MILES

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Office of Energy Analysis.
232 U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013

Regional maps

Figure F7. Coal demand regions

Figure F7. Coal Demand Regions

CT,MA,ME,NH,RI,VT

OH

1. NE

3. S1

4. S2

5. GF

6. OH

7. EN

AL,MS

MN,ND,SD

IA,NE,MO,KS

TX,LA,OK,AR

MT,WY,ID

CO,UT,NV

AZ,NM

9. AM

11. C2

12. WS

13. MT

14. CU

15. ZN

WV,MD,DC,DE

2. YP

Region Code Region Content

NY,PA,NJ

VA,NC,SC

GA,FL

IN,IL,MI,WI

Region Code Region Content

14. CU

13. MT

16. PC

15. ZN

12. WS

11. C2

9. AM 5. GF

8. KT

4. S2

7. EN

6. OH

2. YP

1. NE

3. S1

10. C1

8. KT KY,TN 16. PC AK,HI,WA,OR,CA

10. C1

CT,MA,ME,NH,RI,VT

OH

1. NE

3. S1

4. S2

5. GF

6. OH

7. EN

AL,MS

MN,ND,SD

IA,NE,MO,KS

TX,LA,OK,AR

MT,WY,ID

CO,UT,NV

AZ,NM

9. AM

11. C2

12. WS

13. MT

14. CU

15. ZN

WV,MD,DC,DE

2. YP

Region Code Region Content

NY,PA,NJ

VA,NC,SC

GA,FL

IN,IL,MI,WI

Region Code Region Content

14. CU

13. MT

16. PC

15. ZN

12. WS

11. C2

9. AM 5. GF

8. KT

4. S2

7. EN

6. OH

2. YP

1. NE

3. S1

10. C1

8. KT KY,TN 16. PC AK,HI,WA,OR,CA

10. C1

urce: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecas

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Office of Energy Analysis.
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013 233

Table G1. Heat contents

Fuel Units Approximate 

heat content 

Coal1

 Production .................................................. million Btu per short ton 20.136 

 Consumption .............................................. million Btu per short ton 19.810 

	 	 	 	 Coke	plants	.............................................		 million	Btu	per	short	ton	 26.304	

 Industrial .................................................. million Btu per short ton 23.651 

 Residential and commercial .................... million Btu per short ton 20.698 

 Electric power sector ............................... million Btu per short ton 19.370 

 Imports ........................................................ million Btu per short ton 25.394 

 Exports ....................................................... million Btu per short ton 25.639 

 

Coal coke ...................................................... million Btu per short ton 24.800 

 

Crude oil

 Production .................................................. million Btu per barrel 5.800 

 Imports1 ...................................................... million Btu per barrel 5.967 

 

Petroleum products and other liquids

 Consumption1 ............................................. million Btu per barrel 5.353 

 Motor gasoline1........................................ million Btu per barrel 5.048 

 Jet fuel ..................................................... million Btu per barrel 5.670 

 Distillate fuel oil1 ...................................... million Btu per barrel 5.762 

 Diesel fuel1 .............................................. million Btu per barrel 5.759 

 Residual fuel oil ....................................... million Btu per barrel 6.287 

 Liquefied petroleum gases1 ..................... million Btu per barrel 3.577 

 Kerosene ................................................. million Btu per barrel 5.670 

	 	 	 	 Petrochemical	feedstocks1 ...................... million Btu per barrel 5.114 

 Unfinished oils ......................................... million Btu per barrel 6.039 

 Imports1 ...................................................... million Btu per barrel 5.580 

 Exports1 ...................................................... million Btu per barrel 5.619 

 Ethanol ....................................................... million Btu per barrel 3.560 

 Biodiesel ..................................................... million Btu per barrel 5.359 

 

Natural gas plant liquids

 Production1 ................................................. million Btu per barrel 3.566 

 

Natural gas1

	 	 Production,	dry	...........................................		 Btu	per	cubic	foot	 1,022	

	 	 Consumption	..............................................		 Btu	per	cubic	foot	 1,022	

	 	 	 	 End-use	sectors.......................................		 Btu	per	cubic	foot	 1,023	

	 	 	 	 Electric	power	sector	...............................		 Btu	per	cubic	foot	 1,021	

 Imports ........................................................		 Btu	per	cubic	foot	 1,025	

	 	 Exports	.......................................................		 Btu	per	cubic	foot	 1,009	

 

Electricity consumption .............................. Btu	per	kilowatthour	 3,412	

 

1

Conversion factor varies from year to year. The value shown is for 2011. 

 Btu = British thermal unit. 

	 	 	 Sources:	U.S.	Energy	Information	Administration	(EIA),	Annual Energy Review 2011,	DOE/EIA-0384(2011)	(Washington,	DC,	

September 2012),	and	EIA,	AEO2013	National	Energy Modeling System	run	REF2013.D102312A.

Appendix G

Conversion factors

Table G1. Heat contents
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