U.S. Department of the Interior

U.S. Geological Survey

Open-File Report 2012–1265

North Central Climate Science Center—Science 

Agenda 2012–2017
North Central Climate Science Center—

Science Agenda 2012–2017

Edited by Jeffrey T. Morisette

Director, Department of the Interior North Central Climate Science Center

U.S. Geological Survey

Open-File Report 2012–1265

U.S. Department of the Interior

U.S. Geological Survey
U.S. Department of the Interior

KEN SALAZAR, Secretary

U.S. Geological Survey

Marcia K. McNutt, Director

U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, Virginia: 2012

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Suggested citation:

Morisette, J.T., ed., 2012, North Central Climate Science Center—Science agenda 2012–2017: U.S. Geological 

Survey Open-File Report 2012–1265, 19 p.
iii

Contents

Abstract...........................................................................................................................................................1

Contributing Authors ....................................................................................................................................1

Introduction.....................................................................................................................................................1

Vision/Mission/Goals Statement.................................................................................................................2

Vision.......................................................................................................................................................2

Mission ...................................................................................................................................................2

Goals, Operating Principles, and Implementation of the NC CSC ................................................3

Goals ..............................................................................................................................................3

Guiding Principles........................................................................................................................3

Geographic Context for the North Central Climate Science Center .....................................................3

Primary Partners within the Domain .................................................................................................3

Operational Structure for the Stakeholder Advisory Committee..................................................5

Primary Climate Issues of Concern for the North Central Domain........................................................7

Overview of Climate Issues: Precipitation and Hydrology.............................................................7

Interaction with the National Climate Assessment ........................................................................9

Strategic Framework for Applying Climate Science to Inform Management ...................................10

NC CSC’s ReVAMP: A Resource Framework to Organize Research...................................................11

Fundamental Science for the ReVAMP...........................................................................................12

Understanding and Quantifying Drivers of Regional Climate Changes ............................12

Related Deliverables ........................................................................................................12

Impacts and Vulnerability: Connecting Climate Drivers to Management Targets..........13

Related Deliverables ........................................................................................................14

Characterizing Adaptive Capacity of Stakeholder Communities and Informing 

Management Options ..................................................................................................14

Related Deliverables ........................................................................................................15

Common Modeling Framework ........................................................................................................15

Provenance and Portability Using VisTrails ...................................................................................15

Computational Needs and Facilities................................................................................................16

Data Management..............................................................................................................................16

Integration with Geospatial and Analytic Tools.............................................................................16

Making ReVAMP Operational...........................................................................................................16

References Cited..........................................................................................................................................17

Appendix 1.....................................................................................................................................................18

Figures

1. Time frame and major components of the five-year science agenda for the 

North Central Climate Science Center......................................................................................2

2. Spatial domain of the North Central Climate Science Center, (A) within the 

context of the other science centers in the contiguous 48 States and the four 

Landscape Conservation Cooperatives that overlap the North Central Region 

and (B) interpreted as the ecologically meaningful Missouri River basin..........................4
iv

3. Nine members of North Central University Consortium (NCUC)...........................................5

4. Missouri River basin streamflow trends 1957–2008................................................................7

5. Projected year 2050 temperature (top) and precipitation (bottom) for Steamboat 

Springs and La Junta, Colorado .................................................................................................8

6. National climate assessment regions.......................................................................................9

7. Framework for developing climate change adaptation strategies ....................................11

8. How impact and vulnerability research bridges between climate information and 

management objectives ............................................................................................................13

Table

1. Current list of the North Central Climate Science Center’s Stakeholder

Advisory Committee .....................................................................................................................6
v

List of Acronyms

CESM Community Earth System Model

CIDA Center for Integrated Data Analytics 

CLM Common Land Model

CSC Climate Science Center

CSM Colorado School of Mines

CSU Colorado State University

CU University of Colorado

DOI Department of Interior

IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

ISU Iowa State University

KSU Kansas State University

LC MAP Landscape Conservation Management and Analysis Portal 

LCC Landscape Conservation Cooperatives

MODIS Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer

MSU Montana State University

NC CSC North Central Climate Science Center 

NCA National Climate Assessment

NCAR National Center for Atmospheric Research

NCCWSC USGS National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center

NCPP National Climate Prediction and Projections 

NCTC National Conservation Training Center

NCUC North Central University Consortium 

NESII NOAA’s Environmental Software Infrastructure and Interoperability

NOAA National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

S.O. Secretarial Order

UMt University of Montana

UNL University of Nebraska-Lincoln

USGS U.S. Geological Survey

UW University of Wyoming
Abstract

The information presented here provides the five-year 

science agenda for the North Central Climate Science Center. 

It is meant to be a high-level guide that describes the spatial 

context of the center, the primary partners and stakeholders, 

and the strategic framework the center will use in applying 

climate science to inform management.

Contributing Authors

This science agenda represents input from a wide range 

of contributors (see appendix 1). The first contributors were 

those involved with the initial science agenda developed under 

the direction of Dr. Jay Hestbeck, U.S. Geological Survey 

(USGS), while he was serving as the North Central Climate 

Science Center’s (NC CSC) Interim Director in 2011. The 

second group involved combined input from the NC CSC 

Stakeholder Advisory Committee (SAC) and USGS centers 

in the region, with consultation from the NC CSC University 

Consortium (NCUC) through a two-day strategic planning 

meeting, April 30 and May 1, 2012, at Montana State University, Bozeman, Montana. The meeting was co-led by the 

USGS NC CSC Director, Dr. Jeffrey T. Morisette, and University Director, Dr. Dennis Ojima.

Introduction

The Department of the Interior (DOI), Secretarial 

Order (S.O.) No. 3289, signed on September 14, 2009, and 

amended February 22, 2010 (Salazar, 2009), established 

coordination of the Department’s response to climate change 

impacts on the Nation’s resources. The eight regional DOI 

Climate Science Centers (CSC) established by S.O. 3289 

have been implemented by the United States Geological Survey (USGS) National Climate Change and Wildlife Science 

Center (NCCWSC). 

This science agenda provides one of four foundational 

documents that will be used to guide future work at the center. 

The additional three documents, the first two of which are in 

preparation, include the following: 

• NCCWSC’s “USGS National Climate Change & 

Wildlife Science Center Science Agenda” (NCCWSC, written commun. 26 June 2012), which 

provides a context and framework for the climate 

change impact research that will be conducted or 

coordinated by the NCCWSC and its associated 

regional climate science centers.

• NCCWSC’s “Regional Climate Science Center 

Implementation Document” (NCCWSC, written 

commun. 26 June 2012), which provides detailed 

information on the relationship between the regional 

climate science centers and the DOI, the USGS 

national programs, the Landscape Conservation 

Cooperatives (LCC), and other Federal agencies, as 

well as center staffing, funding, and communication 

plans.

• NCCWSC’s data management policy,1 and 

• NC CSC’s strategic planning meeting (April 30–

May 1, 2012, at Montana State University, Bozeman, Montana) report,2

 which provides a benchmark 

description of both stakeholder needs and partners’ 

capacity. 

These documents are represented in the lower portion 

of figure 1 to represent their foundational nature upon which 

other efforts will be built. The additional components in 

figure 1 are described below.

1 https://nccwsc.usgs.gov/content/data-policies-and-guidance.

2 http://www.doi.gov/csc/northcentral/upload/NC-CSC-science-planningworkshop-report-May-2012.pdf.

North Central Climate Science Center—Science Agenda 

2012–2017

Edited by Jeffrey T. Morisette

Director, Department of the Interior North Central Climate Science Center

U.S. Geological Survey
2 North Central Climate Science Center—Science Agenda 2012–2017

Figure 1. Time frame and major components of the five-year science agenda for the North Central Climate Science Center.

Vision/Mission/Goals Statement

Vision

Secretarial Order 3289 states that

“...the United States Geological Survey (USGS) has 

been developing regional science centers to provide 

climate change impact data and analysis geared to the 

needs of fish and wildlife managers as they develop 

adaptation strategies in response to climate change.”

Secretarial Order 3289 continues that the regional climate 

science centers should

“...broaden their mandate to encompass other 

climate-change-related impacts on Departmental 

resources... (to) synthesize and integrate climate 

change impact data and develop tools that the 

Department’s managers and partners can use when 

managing the Department’s land, water, fish and 

wildlife, and cultural heritage resources.”

The vision of the NC CSC extends the national DOI scientific vision, as expressed in the quote above, to the specific 

regional needs of the North Central domain. The vision for 

the NC CSC is a coordinated and integrated regional approach 

to the management of the Department’s land, water, fish and 

wildlife, and cultural heritage resources in the region that 

utilizes the best possible understanding of past, present, and 

future climate into the decision process.

Mission

The mission of the NC CSC is to provide the best available climate science and tools to inform natural resource 

management within the North Central Domain. The NC CSC 

will provide the tools and information needed by managers 

to understand potential impacts and adaptation strategies for 

a broad range of natural, cultural, energy, and other resource 

management activities. This will be done in conjunction with 

the National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center and 

coordinated with the activities of the other regional climate 

science centers. The three main constituent groups for the center include the North Central University Consortium (NCUC), 

USGS centers in the region, and the Stakeholder Advisory 

Committee (SAC). 
Geographic Context for the North Central Climate Science Center 3

Goals, Operating Principles, and Implementation 

of the NC CSC

Goals

The goals attempt to define “what” the center will be 

doing. The goals are to 

• Coordinate and guide the compilation and application of existing climate information, including regional and near-term projections, to inform 

resource managers, and to improve that information 

through enhanced regional climate modeling,

• Understand climate impacts and consequences on 

key regional sectors; natural, cultural, and energy 

resources; and ecosystem goods and services,

• Evaluate vulnerability of major regional assets and 

sectors, synthesizing physical, ecological, and social 

perspectives that include assessment of adaptive 

capacity and considers human livelihood, health, and 

safety, and

• Develop and improve decision support tools in collaboration with stakeholders to evaluate (alternate) 

management and response strategies to address 

climate change issues. 

These four goals will be met through integrated, crossdisciplinary analysis, synthesis of information across scales 

and sectors throughout the region, and ongoing and effective 

iterative engagement with managers, decision makers, and the 

public. 

Guiding Principles

The guiding principles of the NC CSC broadly describe 

“how” the center will conduct its business. Based on the 

collective experience of the center staff, the NCUC, USGS 

centers in the region, the Stakeholder Advisory Committee 

(SAC), and initial conversations between these groups, the 

guiding principles are as follows:

Principle #1: Build on existing documents, assessments, indicators, and frameworks (in other words, 

don’t “reinvent the wheel”).

Principle #2: Understand and demonstrate to 

resource managers the implication of a climate where 

means and moments of the temperature and precipitation distribution vary over time (that is, help managers understand the implications of a nonstationary 

climate).

Principle #3: Start with the end user in mind and 

prioritize research that is useful and usable.

Principle #4: Consider the center as a coordinated 

research team (and not a funding center), and focus 

on the unique capabilities of both the team and a 

coordinated regional initiative.

Principle #5: Respect the unique demands and 

constraints on the stakeholders and research partners 

(which represent a wide array of Federal, State, and 

university employees where each institution has its 

own set of constraints and incentives).

Geographic Context for the North 

Central Climate Science Center

Primary Partners within the Domain

The National Climate Science Center boundaries, by 

design, allow CSCs to cross the boundaries as the science 

questions dictate (fig. 2A). However, the geographic extent of 

the NC CSC that is perhaps most ecologically and physically 

meaningful to our stakeholders and partners is the upper Missouri River basin (fig. 2B). The Missouri River basin can be 

categorized into four specific ecological units: (1) free-flowing 

(upstream of the reservoir system), (2) remnant floodplains 

(between reservoirs), (3) channelized reach (lower one-third of 

river; that is, “lower river”), and (4) reservoirs (National Academy, 2002). The NC CSC will focus on the domain covered by 

units 1, 2, and 4. It is important to note that the NC CSC will 

consider all land and habitats associated with this geographic 

area and not just riverine habitats. The upper Missouri River 

basin is considered the focus area, but work and attention outside that area is acceptable if such is dictated by management 

targets and studies relevant to the stakeholders. 

The organization of the NC CSC and its interaction with 

its SAC, NCUC, USGS centers, and other Federal, State, and 

tribal organizations will follow the guidance from the NCCWSC Implementation plan (NCCWSC, written commun, 26 

June 2012). The particular entities represented by the NCUC 

are shown below (fig. 3). The people and entities represented 

on the NC CSC’s SAC are listed in table 1. (The information 

in table 1 was current at the time of this publication; an upto-date list of NCUC and SAC members as well as the USGS 

centers within the region are maintained on the NC CSC Web 

page under “Partners.”3

) The NC CSC’s strategic planning 

meeting (April 30–May 1, 2012, at Montana State University, Bozeman, Montana) brought these partners together. A 

description of both stakeholder needs and partners’ capacity is 

contained in the report from that meeting2 and reflected in this 

five-year science plan. 

Colorado State University (CSU), the host university (the 

lead administrative “home”), and eight consortium partners 

who collectively provide unique and complementary expertise 

3 http://www.doi.gov/csc/northcentral/partners.cfm
4 North Central Climate Science Center—Science Agenda 2012–2017

Figure 2. Spatial domain of the North Central Climate Science Center, (A) within the context 

of the other science centers in the contiguous 48 States and the four Landscape Conservation 

Cooperatives that overlap the North Central Region and (B) interpreted as the ecologically 

meaningful Missouri River basin (shown in blue).

A

B
Geographic Context for the North Central Climate Science Center 5

to the NC CSC. The other consortium members include University of Colorado (CU), Colorado School of Mines (CSM), 

University of Nebraska-Lincoln (UNL), University of Wyoming (UW), Montana State University (MSU), University of 

Montana (UMt), Kansas State University (KSU), and Iowa 

State University (ISU). Procedures for interaction between the 

NCUC and the NC CSC will follow the guidance in the NCCWSC Implementation Plan (NCCWSC, in prep. b). The NC 

CSC will look to have one person serve as the primary representative from each university. This representative is expected 

to be the liaison between the science needs of the NC CSC 

and the research and capacity available at their institution. 

Meetings and (or) conference calls with the NCUC representatives will occur two to four times per year, with face-to-face 

meetings at least once a year. These face-to-face meetings will 

include the SAC and provide an opportunity to review annual 

progress and plan future activities. 

Figure 3. Nine members of North Central University Consortium (NCUC)

Operational Structure for the Stakeholder 

Advisory Committee

Executive-level oversight of the NC CSC is provided by 

a Stakeholder Advisory Committee (SAC) (table 1) that can 

be composed of individuals from Federal and State agencies and Tribal Nations. The SAC may also contain several 

nonvoting members from the scientific community to ensure a 

broader discussion of priority science issues. Initially, these ex 

officio members will be the University Director (Ojima), the 

Director of Applications at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR, Buja), and a representative from 

the National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center 

(O’Malley). The Chairman of the SAC is the USGS Regional 

Director, or appointed delegate, for the Southwest Region. 

Meetings and (or) conference calls will occur on an as-needed 

basis with the annual in-person meetings occurring in conjunction with the NCUC as mentioned above. 

This document, the 2012–2017 Science Agenda, was 

developed in conjunction with the SAC who provided 

input at the Bozeman meeting2

 and provided comments 

on the draft. The following framework and fundamental 

science topics were vetted with the SAC, and the NC CSC 

will look to the SAC to actively engage in the framework 

described below.
6 North Central Climate Science Center—Science Agenda 2012–2017

Affiliation Last name First Name

USGS Southwest Regional Office Day Warren

LCC: Plains and Prairie Pothole (FWS-R3) Nelson Rick

LCC: Great Northern (FWS-R6) Converse Yvette

LCC: Great Plains (FWS-R2) Whitlaw Heather

LCC: Southern Rockies (FWS-R6) Johnson Kevin

LCC Science coord.: Plains and Prairie Pothole Olson Mike

LCC Science coord.: Great Northern Finn Sean

LCC Science coord.: Great Plains Broska James

LCC Science coord.: Southern Rockies Rice John

Tribal Representative: Flandreau Santee Sioux Tribe Schumacher Bill

Tribal Representative: Northern Arapaho Tribe Collins Gary 

U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Torbit Steve

U.S. National Park Service Whittington Tammy

U.S. Bureau of Land Management Kitchell Katherine

U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Neff William

USDA Forest Service Hill Alison

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Farris Laura 

U.S. Bureau of Reclamation Davis Gary

U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Thompson Brad

Dept. of Energy, National Renewable Energy Lab Kutscher Chuck

ex officio or non-members:

(ex officio) National Center for Atmospheric Research Buja Lawrence

(ex officio) North Central University Consortium Ojima Dennis

NCCWSC representative O’Malley Robin

Table 1. Current list of the North Central Climate Science Center’s Stakeholder 

Advisory Committee.
Primary Climate Issues of Concern for the North Central Domain 7

Primary Climate Issues of Concern for 

the North Central Domain

Overview of Climate Issues: Precipitation and 

Hydrology

Climate in the NC CSC is strongly connected to topography of the Rocky Mountains and vegetation and soil properties of the Great Plains. Surface hydrology, a key driver of 

ecological diversity and wildlife abundance, is determined 

by the interaction of these landforms and weather. For 

example, about two-thirds of spring and summer rainfall 

originates from a land source, primarily from within the 

NC CSC region but also from land residing north, south, or 

southwest of it (Brubaker and others, 2001); whereas, the 

bulk of mountain snowpack has an oceanic source. The path 

of weather systems as they move from west to east and their 

storm track’s predominant north-south position determine the 

pattern of dry and wet subregions within the NC CSC region. 

Recent changes are evident in variability of streamflow trend 

across the Missouri River basin. Streamflow has decreased 

in the West and has increased in the East (see fig. 4), and the 

pattern indicates change in the terrestrial hydrology budget. 

This trend influences the landscape limnology in the domain, 

the citizens, fish, and wildlife that rely on the water from 

lakes and rivers, as well as the crops or other vegetation that 

rely on the moisture. A significant issue for the NC CSC to 

consider is the persistence of this trend as well as the location and variability of the transition zone separating the “dry 

West” from the “wet East.” 

Figure 4. Missouri River basin streamflow trends 1957–2008. Blue triangle indicate an increase, 

Red/down triangles indicate a decrease, and gray circles represent no statistically significant 

change (δ = 0.20).
8 North Central Climate Science Center—Science Agenda 2012–2017

Also of concern for the NC CSC regional climate analysis is that climate projections for the region are much more 

confident for temperature than precipitation. In the western 

water assessment report “Climate Change in Colorado” (Ray 

and others, 2008), the authors described results from the 

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) showing that there is only weak agreement among climate model 

projections whether annual mean precipitation will increase 

or decrease in Colorado and the north-central region by 2050, 

although there is an indication of an increase in precipitation 

in the winter for much of the north-central region and a 

decrease in precipitation in summer for the western part of 

the region. Two locations studied in the report demonstrate 

the consistency in higher temperature projections (fig. 5, top). 

However, the range of projected future changes in precipitation is large but is still smaller than the year to year and 

decadal variability in the historic record. No future trend is 

detectable yet from the precipitation projections, although 

there are hints of seasonal shifts (fig. 5, bottom; Ray and others, 2008). 

Figure 5. Projected year 2050 temperature (top) and precipitation (bottom) for Steamboat Springs (left) and La Junta (right), Colorado.
Primary Climate Issues of Concern for the North Central Domain 9

Water balance drives not only stream flow of the Missouri River and its tributaries (which influences the availability of water for irrigation, municipal use, and navigation) but 

also impacts the vegetation conditions in the region. Together 

these factors influence essentially all fish and wildlife populations of concern in the area and thus need to be considered 

in resource management plans. For this reason, focal point of 

the NC CSC will be evaluation of the pattern of a drier West 

and a wetter East in both historical measurements and climate projections. Advancing the understanding of the causes 

of variability in this pattern and establishing confidence in 

climate projections of that variability and possible trends will 

help refine methods to cope with its variability.

Interaction with the National Climate 

Assessment

The National Climate Assessment (NCA4) is an important and nationally coordinated resource for understanding 

and communicating climate change science and impacts 

in the United States. It informs the Nation about already 

observed changes, the current status of the climate, and 

anticipated trends for the future. The NCA is comprised of 

a compilation of eight regional climate assessments (fig. 6) 

4

 http://assessment.globalchange.gov/

with the NCA Great Plains region overlapping the NC CSC 

domain. Thus, the NC CSC will use information from the 

2013 NCA national report and Great Plains regional report 

as the base line and primary source of observed changes, 

the current status, and anticipated trends in climate. Then, 

as its science agenda is implemented, the NC CSC will look 

to contribute and coordinate with the 2017 NCA. The NC 

CSC will also work closely with the National Oceanic and 

Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and its program in the 

region to obtain climate information. 

Climate-related challenges across the Great Plains as 

expressed in the Great Plains Regional Climate Assessment 

include the following (Ojima and others, in press):

1. Declining water quantity and quality pose the greatest threats from climate change across the Great 

Plains. Increased competition for water resources 

will significantly affect both human and ecological 

communities and systems. 

2. Increased intensity and frequency of extreme 

weather events, as well as changes in rainfall patterns, will create substantial strain on the ecology, 

economy, infrastructure, and communities of the 

region. These challenges will affect many economic 

sectors, including agricultural and energy production 

and small businesses. 

Figure 6. National climate assessment regions.
10 North Central Climate Science Center—Science Agenda 2012–2017

Although the people of the Great Plains have adapted 

to past climate challenges, the magnitude of expected 

changes and impacts will exceed those of previous experience. Proactive adaptation strategies must be developed to 

address these impacts, and this will require local, regional, 

and national leadership.

Strategic Framework for Applying 

Climate Science to Inform 

Management

Although there are many guidance documents and 

publications related to how climate science can help inform 

management decisions, one of the more relevant, given the 

mission of the NC CSC and the connection to DOI managers, is “Scanning the Conservation Horizons: A Guide to 

Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment” (Glick and others, 

2011). Climate change vulnerability assessments help identify 

which species or systems are likely to be strongly affected by 

projected changes and help us understand why these resources 

are likely to be vulnerable, including the interaction between 

climate shifts and existing stressors (Glick and others, 2011). 

The framework in the Glick and others (2011) assessment 

has been adopted for use by the NC CSC for several reasons:

1. The objectives of that framework are closely aligned 

to those of the NC CSC;

2. The document provides an accessible and logical 

approach for incorporating climate science into land 

management through vulnerability assessments; 

3. The framework follows international standards for 

vulnerability assessment (IPCC, 2007);

4. The framework builds on existing and established 

conservation planning frameworks, such as those of 

The Nature Conservancy and U.S. Fish and Wildlife 

Service;

5. The framework can be used to highlight the roles 

within a vulnerability assessment where the SAC, 

NCUC, and USGS centers provide the most expertise; and

6. The document is currently the primary text for DOI 

training on climate change vulnerability assessments.

The first four points are inherent to the Glick and others 

(2011) document with respect to the mission and goals described 

above. The fifth and sixth points are expanded on here.

The framework is reproduced here as figure 7 with 

additional graphics to highlight the NC CSC’s understanding of how the CSCs and the SAC can best contribute to 

that framework. Represented by the green ring on figure 7, 

the NC CSC anticipates that its stakeholders provide 

expertise in steps 1: identifying conservation targets and 

4: implementing management options. Represented by the 

blue ring, the CSCs can leverage ongoing initiatives and 

research developed through the University Consortium, 

USGS centers, and other Federal programs to provide 

resources to assist with steps 2: vulnerability assessment 

and 3: identification of management options. The rings 

intentionally overlap. As indicated by the internal looping 

circle, each step must be well informed by the preceding 

step, and implementing the framework for a given target 

will need to be holistic and iterative across all four steps. 

Whereas is it helpful to understand that the NC CSC can 

provide more assistance with steps 2 and 3, it must be done 

in close communication and interaction with stakeholders 

iteratively with steps 1 and 4 of the framework. 

The National Conservation Training Center (NCTC) 

offers a class through the DOI on “Climate Change Vulnerability Assessments,”5

 which uses as its primary text the Glick 

and others (2011) document. The course is designed to guide 

conservation and resource management practitioners in two 

essential elements in the design of climate adaptation plans. 

Specifically, it provides (1) guidance in identifying which 

species or systems are likely to be most strongly affected by 

projected climate change and (2) understanding of why these 

resources are likely to be vulnerable, including the interaction between climate shifts and existing stressors. To date, 

over 300 people involved with resource management have 

attended the course (Donna Brewer, NCTC, oral commun., 

26 Oct. 2012). So, in the coming years, we anticipate a 

cohort of DOI and other land managers who will be familiar 

with the Glick and others (2011) document and its associated 

framework. We have built the five-year research agenda for 

the NC CSC to help provide scientific support to this cohort 

and other resource managers concerned with impacts of 

climate change. 

It is worth mentioning a revised framework recently 

reported by Cross and others (2012), which presents a similar 

framework, but with six steps that provide additional detail 

on climate information and more explicitly accounting for 

iterating through the process. Though recognizing the utility 

and need to consider the ideas in Cross and others (2012), 

because of its eloquence and current use within the DOI, 

NC CSC will utilize the four-step Glick and others (2011) 

framework. 

One final note on the Glick and others (2011) framework: 

the NC CSC considers the term “conservation” goals and 

targets fairly broadly and is taken to include renewable energy 

and cultural resources. Also, the term “vulnerability assessment” tends to focus on potential negative consequences. 

The NC CSC is open to consideration of potential positive 

opportunities that may be presented by future climate changes. 

Swapping “Assess vulnerability to climate change” with 

“Assess opportunities from climate change” in step 2 allows 

for the framework to be applied in such cases.

5 http://training.fws.gov, coarse code = ALC3184
NC CSC’s ReVAMP: A Resource Framework to Organize Research 11

NC CSC’s ReVAMP: A Resource 

Framework to Organize Research

The “Scanning the Conservation Horizons” document 

provides a solid framework for the NC CSC as enumerated 

above. However some of the technical components involved 

with implementing the framework (including downscaling climate projections, ecological response models, and 

assessing and understanding uncertainty) are nontrivial. 

We believe that a typical resource manager or management 

team attempting to apply this framework (by taking the 

NCTC course, reading Glick and others (2011) document, or 

referencing similar framework documents) could use assistance in approaching the fairly complex and varied analysis 

required. With this, the NC CSC is directing its five-year 

science agenda toward science delivery through a Resource 

for Vulnerability Assessment, Adaptation and Mitigation 

Planning (ReVAMP).

Stakeholders have expressed a desire to have a resource 

that can help interpret and untangle the ever increasing array 

of climate information. One suggestion was to consider it the 

North Central Climate Service Center. Another suggestion 

was to consider the CSC as a climate information extension 

program. Stakeholders have asked the NC CSC to focus on 

management relevance and ensure that land and water managers have access to products AND can use them. Although peerreviewed publications are important, managers have to be able 

to find and use information/tools (sometimes more quickly than 

waiting for journal publication). These and other comments, as 

well as observations from attending the NCTC courses, have 

established a need for technical assistance in applying climate 

science to the management process, including vulnerability 

assessments, adaptation, and mitigation. The ReVAMP concept 

will help address this need. The five-year plan for the ReVAMP 

framework is shown in figure 1 where initial focus will be on 

configuring and maintaining the ReVAMP infrastructure. This 

activity will start to ramp down while the use of the ReVAMP 

infrastructure and tools starts to ramp up.

Figure 7. Framework for developing climate change adaptation strategies (taken from Glick and others, 

2011) with the additional demarcation showing the NC CSC interpretation of SAC’s and CSC’s relationship to 

that framework.
12 North Central Climate Science Center—Science Agenda 2012–2017

Fundamental Science for the ReVAMP

The ReVAMP concept will serve as a centralizing theme 

to coordinate research done through the NC CSC and will also 

provide the mechanism by which the NC CSC can help serve 

stakeholder needs. ReVAMP will include the following three 

focal areas (which follow closely the components of capacity 

needed for conservation in light of a nonstationary climate in 

Jackson and others (2009) and are directly related to the NC 

CSC goals listed above):

• Understanding and quantifying drivers of regional 

climate changes,

• Assessing impacts of climate change on the natural 

resources of the region and the resulting vulnerability 

of social-ecological system components, and

• Characterizing adaptive capacity of communities and 

natural resources. 

These three research areas and their rough allocation of 

resources and attention are shown as the “Foundational Science Areas” in figure 1 and described in detail below.

Understanding and Quantifying Drivers of 

Regional Climate Changes

Understanding climate drivers is a central theme for all 

CSCs. Informing the north-central management community 

on the latest science related to climate drivers in the region 

and communicating the potential effects is a fundamental and 

critical element of the NC CSC ReVAMP. Specifically, this 

research area addresses the “Exposure” bullet in step 2 of the 

Glick and others (2011) framework (fig. 7).

The climate in the north-central domain is driven by 

large-scale patterns in atmospheric circulation, the region’s 

complex topography, and effects due to the nature of the local 

land cover. The multiscale nature of these climate drivers creates patterns of mean climate, climate variability, and climate 

change that are characterized by dramatic gradients in seasonal 

and annual temperature, effective moisture, and wind. The 

resulting climatic variability determines the diversity and distribution of habitats that support species and ecosystems and 

impacts the potential renewable energy resources for the area. 

It is necessary, therefore, to use region-specific approaches for 

developing targeted climatological information that respects 

the full range of temporal and spatial scales of climate processes in order to understand vulnerability of conservation 

targets to changing climate.

Regional climate research in the north-central region, 

spanning the Holocene to the future, is underway by scientists in the USGS, consortium universities, and other Federal 

researchers. Research connected to the NC CSC within this 

theme should consider using paleoclimate and historical studies based on pollen, diatoms, tree-rings, geochemistry, lithology, charcoal, streamflow, and historical records to reconstruct 

past conditions. Climate modeling efforts should focus on 

both statistically and dynamically downscaled simulations of 

ecosystem-important climate parameters and evaluation of the 

scales at which climate model processes are operating within 

the NC CSC domain.

Climate-driver research for the NC CSC will be directed 

toward clarifying and quantifying the trajectory of change in 

past, present, and future climate drivers within the NC CSC 

domain. Based on the climate issues relevant to the NC CSC 

domain, the priority considerations for this research area 

include, but are not limited to, trends and forecasts of precipitation and resulting hydrology and water balance across 

the west to east moisture gradient. An important part of this 

research area will be to quantify the nonstationary nature of 

climate drivers (Milly and others, 2008) for the region and to 

consider ways to either reduce or deal with the uncertainty of 

precipitation projections.

Related Deliverables

This research focus will provide climate information 

across the region that will be tailored to resource management 

decision-makers’ needs, as well as to inform researchers on 

the driver of impacts across an array of natural and cultural 

resource areas, from species, landscapes, biotic and biophysical resources, and ecosystems. This information will be analyzed over historical periods as well as include projections of 

different scenarios of climate dynamics into the future. 

The research activities will analyze available climate 

datasets for the region to develop a suite of annual, seasonal, 

and diagnostic indicators of climate features that have potential impact on natural resource management issues across the 

region. For instance, multidecadal analysis of extreme events 

related to droughts, floods, and temperature highs and lows will 

be conducted to characterize changes in climate trends over 

historic and projected climate datasets. More detailed analysis 

of growing-degree days, extremes in hot and cold days, precipitation events, snowfall, and seasonal precipitation will be 

analyzed as related to critical resource management needs.

Development of additional analyses will be done in consultation with SAC. The priorities for this research area and 

delivery of results will be guided by the plans for adaptation 

and mitigation goals defined by the agencies, State, local, and 

Tribal governments represented by the SAC. 

Specific deliverables include the following:

• Publications and expert opinion focused on geographic 

areas and ecosystems/habitats of concern to the Stakeholder Advisory Committee and other clients on our 

current understanding of climate and climate variability in the region,

• World-class research on regional climate models in 

the NC CSC domain, with an understanding of how 

that research fits client-based and management decision activities

• Contributions to the future National Climate Assessment, and
NC CSC’s ReVAMP: A Resource Framework to Organize Research 13

• Climate information and products that are accessible 

and useable within the ReVAMP as input to the vulnerability assessment management options components of 

the framework.

This research area will require more attention in the early 

years as it represents fundamental science that needs to be 

established so as to provide input to impacts and adaptation 

research areas (described below). As such, it will receive more 

focus and resources in the early years with a slight ramping 

down in the final years (fig. 1).

Impacts and Vulnerability: Connecting Climate 

Drivers to Management Targets

Whereas climate drivers are a fundamental research 

component for the CSCs, for most management issues climate 

is often not the primary concern. For example, land managers 

are more concerned about animal populations or ecosystem 

services than they are about changes or trends in annual average temperature or precipitation. Yet climate drivers are linked 

to the conservation targets of concern. This research element 

is directed toward understanding and quantifying that linkage through ecological response models. Ecological response 

models, as enumerated in Glick and others (2011), help bridge 

between climate information and management goals (fig. 8). 

This research area will utilize information from the climate 

research area to best accomplish step 2 of the Glick and others 

(2011) framework (fig. 7).

The NC CSC will be using this research area to explore 

how climate data can better provide information to managers 

by way of ecological response models. For this area, the NC 

CSC will provide the data-model-management connections 

(that is, serving as a liaison between all three components). 

Components of the climate-drivers research area (described 

above) as well as collaboration with NOAA’s National 

Climate Projections and Predictions (NCPP) program, and 

other Federal climate-related programs, will work to develop 

capacities to provide enhanced climate information at relevant 

spatial and temporal scales, both for historical climate and 

projections of future climate (the left-most box in fig. 8). The 

connection with the NOAA NCPP is being explored through a 

current pilot project that will run through 2013. This pilot will 

be used to inform subsequent collaboration with NOAA and 

the NCPP program.6

This research area will look to leverage ongoing and 

active research and expertise in ecological response models 

where translational climate analysis can advance that work.

It is important for the ecological response modeling to also 

respect the nonstationary nature of climate drivers (Milly 

and others, 2008) and consider nonstationary drivers when 

constructing climate derivatives as input into the ecological 

response models.

The connection to management actions (the right-most 

box in fig. 8) links this research area to the adaptation and 

decision-making research areas listed below. The NC CSC 

is looking to build ecological response modeling that can 

both (a) be improved with enhanced climate information that 

respects nonstationarity and (b) serve management issues that 

have been prioritized by the stakeholders. The ReVAMP infrastructure will facilitate the connections and interactions represented by the two-way arrows in figure 8 (and it is important 

6

 http://www.doi.gov/csc/northcentral/NCPP-Pilot-Project.cfm

Figure 8. How impact and vulnerability research bridges between climate information and management objectives. 
14 North Central Climate Science Center—Science Agenda 2012–2017

to note that they are indeed two-way arrows). The NC CSC 

will facilitate translational information and science/management exchange represented by these arrows. The related 

research in this focus area must be open to and agile enough to 

iterate with both the climate-drivers research component and 

relevant resource management goals and objectives.

Related Deliverables

The impacts research area will incorporate vulnerability 

to different exposure and sensitivity of system components 

to climate effects and drivers to address the nature of the 

vulnerability. It will build on current observations available in 

the region and utilize an ensemble of models to enhance the 

understanding of vulnerability to natural and cultural resources 

in the region. The vulnerability framework provides an analytical process to identify exposures and sensitivities of a system 

together, as well as separate parts of the system. Analysis of 

vulnerability will incorporate regional and temporal aspects to 

inform managers and researchers about interactions between 

factors and temporal dimensions of these interactions. 

Specific deliverables include the following:

• The ecological-response-modeling component of the 

ReVAMP, which will link state-of-the-science understanding of climate with resource management decision support tools, 

• Habitat integrity factors that influence the productivity 

and extent of these habitats across various changing 

environmental conditions,

• Species-level sensitivity of physiological or population 

limits that would affect the success of the species, and

• Ecosystem service changes that would alter management considerations of these resources. 

This research area is seen as essential to make climate 

data available and relevant to land managers. Early work in 

this area will be required to demonstrate the utility of the 

center, and continued work will be needed to take advantage of the improved climate information coming from the 

climate drivers research (area 1, described above). As such, 

it will maintain a substantial and sustained focus throughout 

the life of this five-year plan (fig. 1).

Characterizing Adaptive Capacity of Stakeholder 

Communities and Informing Management 

Options

Connecting to decision makers is one of the main operating principles for the center and integral to its mission. This 

connection is not always obvious or automatic; it requires not 

only a strong research program but also a healthy infrastructure for transition, a strong interface with the user community, 

and continuous evaluation of the process (National Academy, 

2000). This research area will ensure the NC CSC has these 

key components in place. 

Adaptive capacity issues come into play in both the 

2nd and 3rd steps of the Glick and others (2011) framework 

(fig. 5). Understanding and evaluation of the adaptive capacity of the social-ecological systems in the north-central region 

should be an integral component in the development of management strategies to deal with climate change. The vulnerability of natural resources and the adaptive capacity of the 

social-ecological system vary across the region due to local, 

State, Tribal, and regional accessibility to social-ecological 

capital resource assets. The science done through the NC CSC 

should work toward understanding the availability and use of 

capital resource assets in the region and how they are, or can 

be, used for implementing adaptive management practices. 

This understanding is critical in the development of useful and 

feasible management strategies. 

Recent observations of droughts, fires, pest outbreaks, 

and habitat loss to wildlife provide examples of potential 

climate impacts on natural resources (CCSP 2008; Karl and 

others, 2009), while droughts and fires provide examples of 

potential climate impacts on social-economic systems and 

resources7

. Research under this theme will explore how these 

climate change features affect local-scale social-ecological 

systems, trigger threshold events, and create nonlinear interactions across an interwoven set of stressors on resources (CCSP, 

2009; Allen and others, 2010), and how these get reflected in 

local management decisions and practices. A major goal for 

this theme is to develop a robust decision making approach 

that acknowledges the sources of uncertainty, incorporates 

what is known of the system’s vulnerabilities, and assesses 

assets critical to the management entity. 

Providing expertise on management options is relevant 

to the 1st and 4th steps of the framework (fig. 5). As stated 

above, the primary capability for the 1st and 4th elements of 

the framework will come from the stakeholders. However, the 

NC CSC will work with its SAC to help identify management 

targets that are most vulnerable to climate change and iterate 

and coordinate with entities represented on the SAC as they 

implement management options. The NC CSC will look for 

research in this area to develop the criteria for selecting targets 

and applying the four-step process to those targets. Based 

on input to-date, the mission of the center, and the operating 

principles, the criteria for target selection should include an 

emphasis on regional issues, a clear connection to climate 

drivers, and an explicit relevance to management decisions. 

To identify conservation targets and implement management options, it is imperative to understand the socialeconomic context and drivers. The NC CSC is very committed 

to identifying end users’ needs and understanding and facilitating the incorporation of climate science into management 

decisions through quantitative decision support tools. As such, 

research will be directed in this area and the NC CSC will look 

to coordinate with the USGS Science and Decision Center8

as well as the staff and resources available through the NCTC 

7 http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/billions/events

8 http://www.usgs.gov/sdc/
NC CSC’s ReVAMP: A Resource Framework to Organize Research 15

structured decision-science curriculum9. Key components of 

this research area will include quantitative scenario planning 

(Kass and others, 2011) and management-decision-based 

simulation studies (for example, Frid and Wilmshurst, 2009). 

Related Deliverables

This focus area will provide a critical analysis of how 

the different management entities represented on the SAC and 

across the region have an ability to implement adaptation and 

mitigation strategies. This analysis will evaluate the options 

available to these entities to both address the impacts on the 

system and identify potential vulnerabilities. This information 

will provide a framework to build capacity to cope or respond 

to different stressors. The analysis of capital assets will be 

made within the decision-making context of these entities and 

with the help of quantitative decision support tools.

Specific deliverables include the following:

• Detailed information on management options and institutional resources and how these are utilized under 

various decision-making situations,

• Integration of the information derived from the other 

research activities above, shared with stakeholders 

across the region to enhance adaptive capacity, and 

• Quantitative decision-support tools for the ReVAMP.

This research area is less developed than the other two 

focus areas. The first few years will be used to establish a 

community around these topics, with increasing work and 

attention as more tools and capacity are established and as the 

climate data and impact research areas start to yield results 

(fig. 1). Initial work will lay the foundation for the important work that will happen in later years. The “ramp” for this 

research area in figure 1 recognizes that this area is still in the 

developmental stage and resources for the area are expected to 

increase during the life of this plan.

Common Modeling Framework

The NC CSC is committed to an open access and shared 

community platform for the climate analysis, impact assessments, and decision support tools that will result from the 

research areas listed above. A community-based approach 

will provide an open platform for co-development of data 

and analytical sharing and translation of information dealing 

with climate variables, impacts of climate change, and options 

related to management plans and adaptation strategies to offset 

specific vulnerabilities. 

The information technology infrastructure developed 

through NC CSC will adhere to the following principles:

• Most modeling will be done with close collaboration between the decision makers, the climate 

modeling community, and researchers familiar with 

9 http://training.fws.gov/EC/Resources/Decision_Analysis/SDM.htm

the relevant ecological, energy, cultural, or management disciplines, 

• The modeling tools will be as transparent as possible 

(avoid “black box” type solutions),

• Software will be configured to take advantage of highperformance computing as it becomes available, and 

• The modeling framework will facilitate community 

input.

Such community-based earth-system development and 

application studies have been successfully utilized at the 

National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). The Community Earth System Model (CESM10) and submodules, such 

as the Common Land Model (CLM), have been designed with 

input from the research and user communities. In this manner 

the development of the CESM and CLM components proceed 

in a rapid manner with input of findings from recent research 

on specific portions of the model and are quickly evaluated for 

inclusion in the application activities such as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments. The NC 

CSC will look to follow these successful examples in building 

a common modeling framework for the region. 

It is worth noting that this modeling framework is 

focused more on analysis and computation than on data input 

or archives. The NC CSC will work to utilize other national 

data-related efforts (see Data Management section below).

Provenance and Portability Using VisTrails

Recently developed scientific workflow and visualization 

tools will be used to build a common modeling framework. 

VisTrails11 is open source software that can help researchers 

and managers visualize workflows and display analysis results 

while capturing the provenance of each model run, including input data and modeling parameters. VisTrails provides a 

documented, repeatable audit trail of the analysis. 

Key advantages to using scientific workflows are as 

follows:

• It allows for the formalization and tractable recording 

of the entire analysis process,

• By constructing the model configuration in a way that 

is fully explicit and tractable, it can allow for easier 

collaboration by enabling one group to understand 

what the other has done and to iterate on adjustments 

or changes, 

• By wrapping many disparate tools and custom processing steps in a user-friendly interface, the file management and compatibility burden on researchers is 

greatly reduced, and

10 http://www.cesm.ucar.edu/

11 http://www.vistrails.org
16 North Central Climate Science Center—Science Agenda 2012–2017

• By formalizing the components in a modular setting, VisTrails can incorporate future and additional 

modeling routines and tools (Morisette and others, 

in press).

NC CSC research efforts will be directed to evaluate 

how VisTrails can be used to establish protocols for implementing a common framework for climate modeling, impact 

assessment, and decision support tools. By integrating 

modeling workflows in VisTrails, the NC CSC will start to 

design a system where the outputs from one modeling effort 

can easily become inputs to subsequent analysis. The built-in 

documentation capabilities of VisTrails provide a means to 

ensure transparency, repeatability, and transferability. Use of 

VisTrails as a common modeling framework will start in year 

one and ramp up through the entire five years. Ramping up 

will include adding new ecological response models, incorporating more informed climate information, and expanding 

the list of conservation targets. The NC CSC has a NASAsponsored project (through 2015) wherein the lead VisTrails 

developers at Polytechnic Institute of New York University 

(NYU-Poly) are available to consult on the use and development of VisTrails. Development, evolution, and evaluation 

of this modeling framework will be done collaboratively 

between NC CSC and the VisTrails developers with input 

from the NCUC, USGS and other Federal research centers, 

and the SAC. 

Computational Needs and Facilities

Given the NC CSC mission—provide the best available 

climate science and tools to inform natural resource management within the North Central Domain—the center will continually work with large amounts of climate-model data and 

derived products. The NC CSC will require unfettered access 

to large computational facilities and resources for day-today operations, ongoing analyses, and long-term projects. 

Significant amounts of data and derived information will be 

ingested, processed, and transferred between researchers and 

managers on a routine basis. 

Operationally, NC CSC will work with tens of thousands 

of individual files. They fall roughly into four categories: computer programs, input data, intermediate data, and output data. 

Input data, primarily historical and projected climate data, can 

be tens to hundreds of terabytes; intermediate data files are 

up to tens of terabytes in size; and output products are on the 

order of one or two terabytes.

The NC CSC will help coordinate research among 

the nine universities in its consortium and over 20 USGS 

research offices, as well as other Federal, State, and NGO 

collaborators. The center will transfer large amounts of data 

(on the order of terabytes) regularly between and among the 

various partners in order to facilitate the variety of processing needs. Large-scale computing will occur at several sites 

with high-performance computing, which requires moving 

either input or output datasets. The primary computation 

resource to be explored for use by the NC SCS is the joint 

NCAR/UW “Yellowstone” supercomputer.12

Data Management

The NCCWSC has written a policy regarding the 

sharing of data by collaborators funded partially or entirely 

by the NCCWSC and (or) the CSCs.1 The objective of the 

policy is to ensure and facilitate full and open access to 

scientific data and data products. This policy is a binding 

condition for all NCCWSC and CSC supported projects and 

the NC CSC will ensure all science conducted through the 

center will follow the national policy. 

In regards to climate data access and modeled output 

delivery, the NC CSC is specifically looking to leverage 

off the USGS GeoDataPortal developed at USGS Center 

for Integrated Data Analytics (CIDA13) and partner with 

NOAA’s Environmental Software Infrastructure and Interoperability (NESII14) Group. The NC CSC will also look to 

integrate with the Landscape Conservation Management and 

Analysis Portal (LC MAP15) and the Global Change Master 

Directory (GCMD16).

Integration with Geospatial and Analytic Tools

Given the size of climate data, the computing power 

needed to process it, and its dynamic nature, the NC CSC will 

explore options for delivering the required data preprocessed, 

distilled to the relevant information for a given analysis or 

management need, and delivered on-demand. Ongoing work at 

the NC CSC is exploring the use of machine-to-machine services to automatically query remote data sets. For example, a 

current test project is using ESRI image service and associated 

ArcMap toolbox to allow users to see and analyze remote sensing and climate data products within ESRI applications. This 

image service can be used in ArcMap as if the data were stored 

locally, but only the portion of the data covering a specified 

area of interest is downloaded. From an end user’s perspective, the process is seamless and straightforward. Additional 

mechanisms for delivering these critical but cumbersome data 

in other applications, such as R, Python, and VisTrails, will be 

developed in coordination with outside partners.

Making ReVAMP Operational

ReVAMP will be a community resource for information 

exchange and analysis in support of resource management 

12 http://nwsc.ucar.edu/

13 http://cida.usgs.gov/

14 http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/nesii/

15 https://my.usgs.gov/catalog/?community=LC+MAP

16 http://gcmd.nasa.gov/
References Cited 17

decision making under a nonstationary climate. As a community resource, the NC CSC staff will centrally manage its 

implementation and support. However, the facility will be 

governed by the larger partner community consisting of the 

SAC, NCUC, Federal agencies, and other partners from State 

and Tribal governments. 

We will start with and host a ReVAMP central node at 

CSU’s Natural Resource Ecology Laboratory in conjunction with the nearby USGS Fort Collins Science Center’s 

Resource for Advanced Modeling17. The central node 

will link to other major computational facilities, research 

results, and communication and outreach activities in the 

region. The SAC and NCUC will play a key role in maintaining these linkages.

Project activities across the region will be carried 

out by funded activities prioritized by SAC. Coordination of, and participation in, these research activities will 

be carried out by NC CSC staff. Federal and university 

co-governance of these projects will be implemented to 

maintain strong coordinated efforts to provide a platform 

for engagement between the research community and the 

management entities in our region. 

Over the first five years of funded projects at the 

NC CSC, each project as well as other partners will be 

apprised of the ReVAMP infrastructure and encouraged to 

have their results directed toward sustainable and operational tools that can contribute to, and demonstrate the 

utility of, ReVAMP. Also, the NC CSC will engage with 

the NCTC to make the ReVAMP known and available to 

students that participate in courses related to vulnerability 

assessment, structured decision making, and scenario planning. The NCTC is currently working with the NCCWSC 

and others to establish a DOI “climate curriculum” (Donna 

Brewer, NCTC, written commun., 26 Oct. 2012). NC CSC 

will work with the NCCWSC and the NCTC as this develops and build “ReVAMP” to ultimately serve as an operational resource available to students matriculating through 

that program and other resource managers interested in 

developing plans that incorporate the latest climate science 

into their management framework.

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Appendix 1

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Appendix 1: Contributors to the North 

Central Climate Science Center FiveYear Science Agenda

Contributors to the initial science agenda developed 

under the direction of Dr. Jay Hestbeck, USGS, while he was 

serving as the interim NC CSC director in 2011. 

• Dr. Caspar Amman, NCAR, Research Scientist

• Leslie Armstrong, USGS, South Central Regional 

Executive Office

• Dr. Kristen Averyt, University of Colorado, Deputy 

Director, Western Water Assessment

• James Broska, FWS, GP LCC Science Coordinator

• Dr. Lawrence Buja, NCAR, Director of Climate Applications

• Pamela Fromhertz, NOAA

• Dr. Jay Hestbeck, USGS, Interim Center Director, NC 

CSC

• Dr. Doug Kluck, NOAA

• Dr. Richard Nelson, FWS, PPP LCC Coordinator

• Dr. Dennis Ojima, Colorado State University, Host 

University PI

• Dr. Max Post van der Burg, USGS, PPP LCC 

• Dr. Andrea Ray, NOAA, Earth Systems Research 

Laboratory

• Dr. Richard Sojda, USGS, GN LCC

• Dr. Robert (Robin) Webb, NOAA, Earth Systems 

Research Laboratory

• Dr. Cathy Whitlock, Montana State University

Participants in the strategic planning meeting that was 

integral in the development of the five-year science agenda are 

as follows:
Appendix 1 19

First Name Last Name Institution/Organization Phone Number Email

Christopher Anderson Iowa State University 515-294-9948 cjames@iastate.edu

Mark Anderson USGS - South Dakota 605-394-3220 manders@usgs.gov

Nikki Blanken Colorado State University 970-491-5589 nikki.blanken@colostate.edu

Kyle Blasch Montana Water Science Center 406-457-5901 kblasch@usgs.gov

Zachary Bowen USGS Fort Collins Science Center 970-226-9218 bowenz@usgs.gov

James Broska Great Plains LCC 505-248-6279 James_Broska@fws.gov

Craig Carr Montana State University 406-994-3282 craig.carr@montana.edu

Frank D'Erchia USGS Rocky Mountain Area 303-236-1460 fderchia@usgs.gov

Gary Davis Bureau of Reclamation 406-247-7717 jgdavis@usbr.gov

Diane Debinski Iowa State University 515-294-2460 Debinski@iastate.edu

Deborah Finch USDA Forest Service 505-724-3671 dfinch@fs.fed.us

Robert Gleason USGS Northern Prairie Wildlife Research Center 701-253-5546 rgleason@usgs.gov

Bob Gough Intertribal Council on Utility Policy 605 441 8316 gough.bob@gmail.com

Andrew Hansen Montana State University 406 994 6046 hansen@montana.edu

Todd Hawbaker USGS Rocky Mountain Geographic Science Center 303-202-4303 tjhawbaker@usgs.gov

Lauren Hay USGS 303 236 7279 lhay@usgs.gov

Steven Hostetler USGS 541 737-8928 swhostet@usgs.gov

Kevin Johnson Southern Rockies LCC 303-236-4404 kevin_m_johnson@fws.gov

Jeff Kershner USGS NOROCK 406-994-5304 jkershner@usgs.gov

Todd Kipfer Montana Institute on Ecosystems 406-994-7977 tkipfer@montana.edu

Kate Kitchell Bureau of Land Management 406-896-5012 kkitchell@blm.gov

Doug Kluck NOAA/Regional Climate Services Director 816-564-2417 doug.kluck@noaa.gov

William Lauenroth University of Wyoming 307-766-4353 wlauenro@uwyo.edu

Jeff Morisette DOI North Central Climate Science Center 970-691-8197 morisettej@usgs.gov

Rick Nelson U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service 701-355-8509 Richard_D_Nelson@fws.gov

Barry Noon Colorado State University 970-491-7905 brnoon@cnr.colostate.edu

Robin O'Malley USGS NCCWSC 703-648-4086 romalley@usgs.gov

Robert Oglesby University of Nebraska, Lincoln 402-472-1507 roglesby2@unl.edu

Dennis Ojima Colorado State University 970-491-1976 dennis.ojima@colostate.edu

Tom Olliff Great Northern LCC 406-994-7920 Tom_Olliff@nps.gov

Casey Peters UC Davis 707-292-8485 caseybpeters@yahoo.com

Max Post van der Burg USGS Northern Prairie Wildlife Research Center 701-253-5574 maxpostvanderburg@usgs.gov

Andrea Ray NOAA/EArth System Research Lab 303-497-6434 Andrea.ray@noaa.gov

Steve Running University of Montana 406-243-6311 swr@ntsg.umt.edu

Liz Shanahan Montana State University 406-994-5167 shanahan@montana.edu

Rick Sojda USGS; Great Northern LCC 406-994-1820 sojda@usgs.gov

Cathy Thomas USGS 970-226-9164 ccullinanethomas@usgs.gov

Jim Vogelmann USGS/EROS 605-594-6062 vogel@usgs.gov

Cathy Whitlock Montana Institute on Ecosystems 406-994-6910 whitlock@montana.edu

Mark Wildhaber USGS Columbia Environmental Research Center 573-876-1847 mwildhaber@usgs.gov
Morisette, ed.—North Central Climate Science Center—Science Agenda 2012–2017—Open-File Report 2012–1265