Commercial Air Conditioners and Heat Pumps

MARKET AND TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT

Mark Kendall

(kendall.mark@adlittle.com)

Arthur D. Little, Inc.

U.S. DOE Workshop on Standards

for Commercial Air Conditioners and Heat Pumps

September 12, 2001

EE-RM-STD-01-375 COMMENT 02GG

Commercial Air Conditioners and Heat Pumps 

- • • •• ~I. ':,: " \ 

MARKET AND TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT 

, . 

, 

Mark Kendall 

(kendall.mark@adlittle.com) 

.Arthur D. Little, Inc. 

U.S. DOE Workshop on Standards 

for Commercial Air Conditioners and Heat Pumps 

September 12, 2001 
Market Assessment · '3! Overview

The information collected during the Market and Technology

Assessment is fundamental to several downstream analyses.

Screening Analysis

Market and

Technology National Energy Savings

Assessment _______ Manufacturer Impact

Analysis

Firms and industry structure

Product characteristics

Historical shipments

Non-regulatory incentives

Regional differences

ItI.B. Market Assessent 083001

EE-RM-STD-01-375 COMMENT 02GG

Market Assessment 

Overview 

The information collected during the Market and Technology 

Assessment is fundamental to several downstream analyses. 

Market and 

Technology 

Assessment 

Screening Analysis 

National Energy Savings 

Manufacturer Impact 

Analysis 

Firms and industry structure 

Product characteristics 

Historical shipments 

Non-regulatory incentives 

Regional differences 

III.B. Market Alless8nt 083001 
Market Assessment

Information Sources

The Department is currently gathering information from the

The Department is currently gathering information from the

following sources:

US DOE Commercial Building Energy Consumption Survey,

1992, 1995, and 1999

Product Technical and Sales Literature

US Census Current Industrial Reports

SEC 10-K Annual Reports

ARI Statistical Profile, 2000

ARI Large Unitary Products Directory

California Energy Commission database

What additional sources should the Department consider?

Are the stakeholders willing to provide more detailed

information?

III.B. Market Assessent 083001

EE-RM-STD-01-375 COMMENT 02GG

, , 

Market Assessment 

I nformation Sou rces 

The Department is currently gathering information from the 

following sources: 

US DOE Commercial Building Energy Consumption Survey, 

1992, 1995, and 1999 

Product Technical and Sales Literature 

US Census Current Industrial Reports 

SEC 10-K Annual Reports 

ARI Statistical Profile, 2000 

ARI Large Unitary Products Directory 

California Energy Commission database 

What additional sources should the Department consider? 

Are the stakeholders willing to provide more detailed 

information? 

III.B. Market Aallllent 083001 2 
·- Market Assessment

Specific Topics

The market assessment raises several important questions.

* Should the Department consider regional differences in

product distribution, use, or installation? If so, which ones?

* What assumptions regarding the impact of non-regulatory initiatives (e.g. ASHRAE 90. 1-1999, Energy Star, utility rebates) should DOE use in the analysis?

* Are there any impending changes in the market of which the

Department should be aware?

III.B. Market Assessent 083001

EE-RM-STD-01-375 COMMENT 02GG

Market Assessment 

Specific Topics 

The market assessment raises several important questions. 

• Should the Department consider regional differences in 

product distribution,· use, or installation? If so, which ones? 

• What assumptions regarding the impact of non-regulatory 

initiatives (e.g. ASHRAE 90. 1-1999, Energy Star, utility 

rebates) should DOE use in the analysis? 

• Are there. any impending changes in the market of which the 

Department should be aware? 

III.B. Market AII ... ent 083001 3 
i j Product Classes

Ah r Proposed Product Classes

Separate classes of air conditioners and heat pumps can be

established in order to accommodate differences in product

efficiency and to preserve consumer utility.

* Are the following classes appropriate?

- AC (cooling-only) (>=65 and <135 kBtu/hr) - AC (cooling-only) (>=135 and <=240 kBtu/hr) - Heat Pump (>=65 and <135 kBtu/hr) - Heat Pump (>=135 and <=240 kBtu/hr)

* Are additional classes warranted based on unique

features that impact energy use (e.g. heat recovery) or

utility (e.g. dehumidification)?

III.B. Market Assessent 083001

EE-RM-STD-01-375 COMMENT 02GG

Product Classes 

Proposed Product Classes 

Separate classes of air conditioners and heat pumps can be 

established in order to accommodate differences in product 

efficiency and to preserve consumer utility_ 

• Are the following classes appropriate? 

• 

AC (cooling-only) (>=65 and <135 kBtu/hr) 

AC (cooling-only) (>=135 and <=240 kBtu/hr) 

Heat Pump (>=65 and <135 kBtu/hr) 

Heat Pump (>=135 and <=240 kBtu/hr) 

.Are additional classes warranted based on unique 

features that impact energy use (e.g. heat recovery) or 

utility (e.g. dehumidification)? 

III.B. Market Assallent 083001 4 
Ep Baseline Models

5: rOverview

The Department defines baseline model characteristics to serve

as the basis, for the analysis.

* Includes capacity, configuration, efficiency, and features

* Usually based on the most commonly sold minimum efficiency product in each product class

* Serves as the basis for cost and performance estimates that are

intended to represent the "typical" product

111.B. Market Assesent 083001

EE-RM-STD-01-375 COMMENT 02GG

" , 

Baseline Models 

Overview 

The Department defi,nes baseline model characteristics to serve 

as the basis' for the analysis. 

• Includes capacity, configuration, efficiency, and features 

• Usually based on the most commonly sold minimum efficiency 

product in each product class 

• Serves as the basis for cost and performance estimates that are 

intended to represent the ''typical'' product 

III.B. Merket AII.llant 083001 5 
Overview

,~~~ Basel~;~P~·F~;:~"ine M..odls:

Based on the market assessment, the Department suggests

using the following characteristics to define baseline air

conditioners and heat pumps for the analysis.

Packaged, year-round (for cooling-only systems)

<1 35kBtu/hr: >=1 35kBtu/hr:

7.5 tons, 8.9 EER, 3.0 COP 15 tons, 8.5 EER, 2.9 COP

8.0 IPLV 8.0 IPLV

single compressor dual compressors

* Are these features/levels appropriate? Should other features be

added?

* Are multiple baseline units (e.g. more than one capacity) needed

within a class?

* Should comparable analysis be performed for other product types

(e.g. split systems, or systems without integral gas heat)?

III.B. Market Asessent 083001

EE-RM-STD-01-375 COMMENT 02GG

Baseline Models 

Overview 

Based on the market assessment, the Department suggests 

using the following characteristics to define baseline air 

conditioners and heat pumps for the analysis. 

Packaged, year-round (for cooling-only systems) 

< 135kBtu/h r: 

7.5 tons, 8.9 EER, 3.0 COP 

8.0IPLV 

single compressor 

>=135kBtu/hr: 

15 tons, 8.5 EER, 2.9 COP 

B.O IPLV 

dual compressors 

• Are these features/levels appropriate? Should other features be 

added? 

• Are multiple baseline units (e.g. more than one capacity) needed 

within a class? 

• Should comparable analysis be performed for other product types 

(e.g. split systems, or systems without integral gas heat)? 

III.B. Market Aaoellent 083001 6 
,I- I.-.^

Backup slides

,~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

EE-RM-STD-01-375 COMMENT 02GG

slides 
Baseline Models

Product Capacity (Input Rating)

Covera4- ie6iciency range varies considerably by

cap co-and '.u manufacturer.

-~ Should this cause

,Uni~,·; %.-_--..~-the Department to

DirectorWnter200 rely less on actual

All commercial unitary -

equipment shown.

III.B. Market Assessent 083001 l~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

EE-RM-STD-01-375 COMMENT 02GG

, I 

Baseline Models 

Product Capacity (Input Rating) 

iency range varies considerably by 

ca 

EER 

, Source: ARI Large 

Unitary Equipment 

Directory Winter 2000 

All commercial unitary 

equipment shown. 

d manufacturer. 

I 

I Should this cause 

the Department to 

rely less on actual 

I 

equipment data and 

I more on modeling? 

III.B. Market Aaaellent 083001 8 
j-p, Baseline Models

J Product Efficiency

I Only a few manufacturers produce split systems >= 135kBTU/hr,

and the most efficient system attains only 10 EER.

' I - .,.........

/L ,,..,./., -, . . - .. : .. - - ...

. /./X/0.---:---. 7A/. . ----.. _..-... , ...--... . ..... -- Is this relatively

low efficiency

limit due to

8 ~~~~~~~~~~tDirectory 5 Winter -----. 2000ehiaor · b.7 consider How should nthe these

8.59.1~~~ ~10

03001 consider these 9

Source: ARI Large EER 9.3 ~ .~ Unitary Equipment 9.5

Directory Winter 2000 9.6

9.8

11I.B. Market Assessnt 083001

EE-RM-STD-01-375 COMMENT 02GG

~Baseline Modeis 

. Product Efficiency 

.rI;i~-(J1=:~~:,~ .. . .""AEg,~:,,_g~~_:__ ... un ..... 

I Only a few manufacturers produce split systems >= 135kBTU/hr, 

: and the most efficient system attains only 10 EER. 

8.5 

8.7 

"'1-'·,. 

8.9 

9 

9.2 

Source: ARI Large EER 

Unitary Equipment 

Directory Winter 2000 

• 

• 

9.5 

9.6 

10 

III.B. Market Alsellent 083001 

Is this relatively 

low efficiency 

limit due to 

technical or 

market factors? 

How should the 

Department 

consider these 

factors in this 

rulemaking? 

9