2. TRANSPORTATION IN THE YEAR 2020

\ ,\ ] orldwide, a number of forces are converging to shape the direction of transportation
over the next two decades. Understanding these changes is critical to formulating a
vision and goals for transportation and to developing a Transportation Science and Technology
Strategy. Key among these global changes are significant shifts in demographics, accelerated
economic growth and globalization, growing urbanization and motorization, increasing
concerns for safety and security, and changing technological trends.

As we enter the 21st century, these global issues and trends will present transportation
decision-makers and researchers with a dilemma: how to meet the increased demand for
transportation while also addressing the sometimes conflicting values of safety, security,
economic productivity, environmental quality, energy efficiency, and accessibility.

In the past, changing transportation needs have typically been met through innovations in three
areas: (1) transportation vehicles; (2) the physical infrastructure that supports their use; and

(3) the people who design, build, operate, and maintain the vehicles and infrastructure, and
who plan and manage the transportation enterprise. More and more, the burgeoning demands
on the transportation system will be met through a fourth means: the development and
deployment of an information infrastructure that underlies and will integrate these three areas.
In fact, one component of any strategy to meet transportation needs will be the stimulation of
alternatives to physical travel, where such a substitution is appropriate and effective.

Each of the four areas of innovation will be key to meeting the emerging global issues and
trends discussed below and are the foundation for the planning process, partnership initiatives,
enabling research, and education and training efforts that compose this Strategy.

CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS

Two major demographic changes will influence the scope and character of world transportation
demand in the 21st century: population growth and the aging of the population in the
industrialized world. Over the next 25 years, world population is projected to grow from its
present 5.5 billion to 8.5 billion people. By far, most of this growth will be in the cities of the
developing world. The increased demand for transportation for this growing population will
require the expansion of existing infrastructure—highways and transit systems—and perhaps
new transportation alternatives.

While industrialized countries’ populations will stabilize and perhaps even decline, there will
be further aging of these populations. Today, over 12 percent of the United States’ and 14
percent of Europe’s population is over 65. By 2020, it is projected that over 20 percent of the

2 NSTC COMMITTEE ON TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT


systems, and to assure seamless integration across organizational, modal, and institutional
interfaces.

Transportation Planning, Economics, and Institutions: Development of a broad knowledge
base and identification and characterization of needs and interests of all parties involved
with the transportation system; and understanding the economic, financial, and institutional
context for transportation.

TRANSPORTATION EDUCATION AND TRAINING

The Nation’s investment in research and technology is critical to the transportation system’s
safety, efficiency, and capacity to support national goals. Equally important, however, is our
continuing investment in the human capital, the transportation professionals and workers who are
responsible for the design, construction, operation, and maintenance of the system.

The Federal Government has long supported transportation education. Current programs
administered by DOT are crucial to ensuring the professional capacity of the transportation
enterprise. The University Transportation Centers Program, the Eisenhower Transportation
Fellowship Program, the Aviation Education Program, and the National Highway, Transit, and
Maritime Institutes are representative of the Federal Government’s continuing investment in
transportation education and professional enhancement.

Transportation today is undergoing great change—experiencing advances in technology,
undergoing organizational transformation, and continuing globalization along with the world
economy. These changes require that current and future generations of transportation
professionals and workers be responsive to a more complex and dynamic environment:

Advanced Technology: Transportation technology once focused on traditional building
materials, standard construction techniques, and combustion-engine-powered vehicles.
Newly developed and deployed transportation technologies reflect advances in
telecommunications, information systems, energy storage, and advanced electronics and
materials. The transportation professional and worker must be educated and trained to
adapt these technologies to the existing transportation infrastructure. Moreover, these new
technologies require a supply of new workers, as well as retrained workers, to operate and
maintain these new systems.

Organizational Transformation: The transportation organizational environment continues
to change. ISTEA gave more decision-making authority to State transportation agencies
and MPOs. Likewise, the movement toward intermodal planning, finance, and operations
has resulted in many changes, including highway departments evolving into State
“transportation” departments. These new agencies are only now learning to address the
competing needs of regional public mobility and freight movement with environmental and

TRANSPORTATION SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY STRATEGY 23


EXHIBIT B

TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM ELEMENTS
AND ENABLING RESEARCH

TRANSPORTATION ENABLING RESEARCH
SYSTEM
ELEMENTS HUMAN ADVANCED COMPUTERS, ENERGY SENSING TOOLS FOR
PERFORMANCE & MATERIALS INFORMATION & & & MODELING &
BEHAVIOR COMMUNICATION | ENVIRONMENT | MEASUREMENT DESIGN
INFORMATION
INFRASTRUCTURE xX xX x x
NEXT-GENERATION
VEHICLES xX > > x x
PHYSICAL
INFRASTRUCTURE xX x x >

TRANSPORTATION SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY STRATEGY

19


Conference on Intelligent Transportation Systems and the National Information
Infrastructure (Volpe Center, Harvard University, and Massachusetts Institute of
Technology, July 1995).

Forum on Future Directions in Transportation R&D (NSTC and Transportation Research
Board/National Research Council, Washington, DC, March 1995).

Transportation Research Board Special Report 244: Highway Research: Current Programs
and Future Directions (1994).

Improved Techniques for Air Quality Measurements (Volpe Center, April 1994).
Proceedings.

Sustainable Transportation: Developing a Framework for Policy Innovation (Volpe Center,
December 1993). Proceedings.

Promoting Transportation Applications in Defense Conversion and Other Advanced
Technologies (Symposium Series for Secretary Pefia). Proceedings.

* University of Michigan (September 1993).

¢ University of California, Davis (October 1993).

* Massachusetts Institute of Technology (October 1993).
¢ University of Texas, Austin (November 1993).

Working Together: Transportation Opportunities for Technology Reinvestment (Volpe
Center, May 1993). Proceedings.

Charting a New Course in Transportation: Transportation Strategic Planning Seminars
(Eight Seminars Conducted by Volpe Center for OST, December 1991). Proceedings.

¢ — International Competitiveness.

¢ — Technological Innovations and Human Factors in Transportation.
¢ Intermodal Passenger and Freight Transfer.

¢ — Energy, Clean Air, and Other Environmental Factors.

¢ Freight Transportation.

28

NSTC COMMITTEE ON TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT




U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
Technology Administration
National Technical Information Service
Springfield, VA 22161 (703) 605-6000



This partnership initiative will improve the regional mobility of the elderly and transportation-
disadvantaged through better management of paratransit operations and assets. This will be
achieved by developing, deploying, and testing a program that will utilize selected information
system technologies and applications, including automatic vehicle location, state-of-the-art
vehicle communications, geographical information systems, computer-aided dispatch, and
electronic fare collection. These technologies will be integrated into a centralized regional
control system to manage otherwise independent paratransit operators. Centralized dispatch,
monitoring, and fare collection for regional paratransit services provided by transit properties,
Councils on Aging, and human service providers within a single region will be conducted from a
regional mobility management center.

Although a number of “smart” technologies are currently being used or individually
demonstrated throughout the country, no single regional testbed exists that attempts to manage
all paratransit services within a region. The power and reduced cost of commercial off-the-shelf
information, communication, and navigation systems makes the deployment of a regional access
and mobility program possible.

Local Environmental Assessment Systems

Assessment of environmental impacts, and of the cost-effectiveness of countermeasures, is in
most cases a very difficult process. For example, urban air pollution depends in part on vehicle
emission characteristics, patterns of travel, weather and climate conditions, and very complex
atmospheric chemistry and physics.

Moreover, it is often not possible to predict |
accurately the travel behavior changes that |
may be associated with a particular air-quality |
change, whether involving road construction,
traffic control, or demand management.

Initiative: Local Environmental Assessment Systems.

Goal: Further develop data, validated models, and a

| comprehensive knowledge base to support analysis of
transportation-related environmental impacts and
alternative strategies, including use of “virtual travel,”
by all levels of government and the private sector.

As a result, many uncertainties surround the
environmental aspects of major transportation | Participants: DOT, EPA, and other responsible
investment and regulatory decisions. This Federal agencies; State and local environmental

b ial + bl for local authorities; National Laboratories; the private sector;
can be an especially serious problem for local and academia.
government planning bodies, which often lack
the sophisticated tools and technical staff Benefits: Improved ability of government agencies to
needed to deal with such complex issues. respond strategically to environmental objectives and

Problems also can arise in the degree to which to characterize the transportation implications of those
. : : objectives.
environmental regulatory agencies appreciate 4

the transportation impacts of their decisions.
Since the consequences for transportation system performance, public health, and overall quality
of life can be severe, it is critical that the Federal Government conduct a wide range of research

38 NSTC COMMITTEE ON TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT


in graphical form on monitors in the airport and airlines’ operations centers. This same
capability will be demonstrated at New York’s LaGuardia Airport in collaboration with the Port

Authority of New York and New Jersey.

Building upon this work and the forecasting capabilities already developed by the NWS, this
partnership initiative will provide the planning and underlying infrastructure required to integrate
all radar, sensor, and satellite data with local geographical information within a selected State
and provide 30-minute, and eventually up to 120-minute, localized statewide weather forecasts.
These capabilities will also be of significant use in furthering the goals of the Aviation Safety

Research Alliance described below.

Enhanced Goods and Freight Movement at Domestic and International Gateways

The Nation’s economic success relies on access to
worldwide markets for its goods and services.
However, as other countries vie for global and U.S.
markets, America’s competitive position continues
to be challenged. Critical to the Nation’s future
competitiveness is the development of an enhanced
integrated transportation system for the movement
of international and domestic freight, based on
advanced infrastructure technologies and more
efficient communication and information systems.

Today, international and domestic freight moves
along integrated “pipeline” systems from origin to
destination, linking various modes as required.
Reliance on just-in-time production and inventory
and distribution management practices has
increased the demand for better freight

| domestic trade markets through advances in

| private, and defense sectors.

Initiative: Enhanced Goods and Freight
Movement at Domestic and International
Gateways.

Goal: Enhance U.S. economic growth by
expanding the overall share of global and

transportation technology and systems.

Participants: DOT (ITS Joint Program Office,
MARAD, FRA, FAA, FHWA, NHTSA); DOC;
and other organizations representing the public,

Benefits: A more productive, competitive
national economy and a more flexible, efficient,
and seamless U.S. freight transportation system.

transportation, yet inefficiencies at any point in the pipeline can disrupt the total
system—resulting in reduced profits for transportation providers and higher costs for freight
shippers and consumers. The goal of freight transportation R&D must therefore be to develop
seamless intermodal networks for the entire trip—from origin to destination.

This partnership initiative will develop segments of such a seamless, intermodal! freight

transportation system. On the water side, this initiative will focus on advanced terminal design
and operating systems that complement changing ship designs and operations. On the land side,
this effort will incorporate advances in high-speed freight rail networks, truck/container transport
and handling systems, capsule pipeline systems, truck/airport interface systems, and
rail/truck/water interface systems. Each of these segments also will require the application of
communication and information systems technology and infrastructure.

36 NSTC COMMITTEE ON TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT


between government and industry to develop and deploy innovative technologies and products
that (1) reduce human-error-caused accidents in aviation by a factor of 10 over 20 years; (2)
eliminate hazardous weather as a cause of aviation accidents; and (3) reduce by half accidents
due to malfunctions of safety-critical aviation systems. It builds on established cooperative
programs and working relationships among DOT/FAA, DoD, NASA, and the air transportation
industry. However, the FAA will continue its research that focuses on addressing immediate
operational safety issues and results most frequently in safety-critical rule-making. In contrast,
the innovations that will be the outcomes of this research alliance will be developed for
incorporation by industry as new products in future aircraft or as additions or alterations to
existing aircraft or procedures. Specific areas for this long-range technology development
include:

Aircraft Systems: Prevent malfunctions of aircraft equipment and systems through
innovations in aircraft design, manufacture, monitoring, inspection, and repair prior to
malfunction.

Human Factors: Eliminate human-caused mishaps through human-centered aircraft and
system design, alternative procedures and processes, and improved education and training.

Environment: Ensure separation between aircraft and hazardous weather, terrain and
obstructions, other aircraft and their wakes, and hostile action (military/security).

TRANSPORTATION PHYSICAL INFRASTRUCTURE
Total Terminal Security

The years since the outbreak of terrorist incidents in the 1960s have seen an intermittent cycle of
both increases and declines in major incidents of public terrorism or violence throughout the
world. The occurrences of such incidents is often, of course, heavily dependent on local or
regional political circumstances. However, recent events in both the U.S. and other parts of the
world—including the bombings of the World Trade Center, the Federal Building in Oklahoma
City, and Olympic Park, and several attacks against transit operations in such widely scattered
cities as Tokyo, Paris, and Baku—have focused considerable attention on the vulnerability of
transportation facilities and the potential for another upsweep in the number and severity of
terrorist attacks.

Because of their visibility, transportation facilities have frequently been the target of such
incidents. It is only prudent that transportation officials carefully study the potential threat to their
own facilities and operations and develop cost-effective measures that can be taken to minimize
the number and severity of incidents. Doing so, however, will require the participation and assent

42 NSTC COMMITTEE ON TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT


Examples of potential research areas under this initiative are:

Behavioral research associated with development patterns: Technical solutions for
devising development patterns that produce environmentally cleaner and safer
environments are a means of reducing VMT, both to reduce environmental problems
and to increase the safety of communities. Research is needed to determine how
aspects of human behavior such as mode choice, travel demand, and driver behavior are
affected by development scale, the scale of hierarchical transportation infrastructures,
and their interaction.

Impacts of transportation infrastructure on climate change: Providing additional
transportation capacity “induces” or attracts new trips, as acknowledged by the recent
Transportation Research Board special report, Expanding Metropolitan Highways.
Both short-term and long-term effects tend to reduce any initial travel-time benefits
associated with increases in capacity. Additional research is needed to clearly
document both short- and long-term effects, especially the implications for greenhouse
gas emissions. Research is also needed to determine whether transportation
infrastructure can be designed in concert with development patterns such that
accessibility is maximized.

Information technologies and sustainable development: Many information technologies
offer solutions that can increase the sustainability of transport systems, especially when
combined with development patterns that are more sustainable. For example,
telecommuting offers the promise of accessibility without mobility and may be
particularly beneficial for promoting development of sustainable communities.
Research into the behavioral implications of telecommuting and other information
technologies, such as adaptive transit dispatching, can identify the implications for
sustainability, such as whether they result in major changes in travel demand and
patterns. Likewise, any institutional or technological barriers to the application of such
“virtual travel” approaches need to be identified for subsequent action.

Infrastructure needs associated with revitalizing urban areas and cleaning up
brownfield sites: Brownfields typically are abandoned sites which are mildly
contaminated but require only minimal clean-up efforts. Redevelopment of these and
other urban sites can promote sustainability, since these uses can eliminate the need to
put new development projects outside urban areas. Urban infill development can
reduce the need for building new transportation infrastructure and reduce VMT growth.
Urban brownfield sites also often have unmet infrastructure requirements that need to
be addressed. Technological solutions, such as information technologies, may be able
to identify and facilitate clean-up requirements while providing a transportation
solution for abandoned urban areas.

46 NSTC COMMITTEE ON TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT


Most of the technologies that would foster free flight have been developed and tested on a small
scale. The next step in the practical application of these technologies is integration,
demonstration, and validation in the operational environment. This activity not only will set the
stage for national deployment of the next-generation air traffic management system, but will
affirm U.S. leadership in aviation by showcasing the new technologies and promoting global
markets for U.S. aviation products.

This initiative will implement and validate advanced air traffic management technologies and
procedures under real-world conditions. The activity is essential to FAA and industry efforts to

evaluate the consequences of changes in the operational concepts and procedures required to
exploit the new technologies. The potential of the new technologies has been successfully

demonstrated—on a limited scale for
helicopters—at the summer Olympics in
Atlanta. There, the FAA, in partnership with
the Olympic Committee, industry, helicopter
operators, and NASA, demonstrated the use of
satellite-based navigation and surveillance
techniques in managing the large number of
passenger, cargo, and security helicopters
supporting the games.

The proposed effort would implement and
demonstrate the new system in two regions,
one each in Alaska and Hawaii. Hawaiian
airspace is an ideal location because it is
geographically isolated and serviced by a
relatively small number of aircraft, making
technology upgrades more affordable and
manageable. Further, because Hawaii is a
popular international destination, it offers a
unique opportunity to showcase U.S.
technologies for the rapidly growing aviation
markets in Asia and elsewhere. Alaska also

Initiative: Next-Generation Global Air
Transportation.

Goal: Enhance aviation system safety, efficiency, and
capacity by demonstrating next-generation concepts
for air traffic management and validating the
associated technologies, procedures, and operational
benefits.

Participants: DOT (FAA, USCG); NASA; DoD;
airlines; and manufacturers.

Benefits: Improved safety and efficiency of the air
transportation system in the face of increasing travel
and capacity demands by flights in domestic airspace
and over the oceans; advancement of the state of the
art in aviation communications, navigation,
surveillance, weather, and decision-support systems;
promotion of government-industry cooperation in
critical areas of aviation technology; and improved
USS. balance of trade for aviation technologies and
products.

has the advantage of relative geographic isolation. In addition, it provides challenging weather
conditions and terrain that the new system addresses by providing relevant safety information in
the cockpit. The demonstration in Alaska therefore will validate the ability of the new
technologies to significantly increase the safety of flight operations.

This initiative will exploit and expand existing partnerships among industry, airspace users, the
FAA, NASA, and DoD. These collaborations created the concept of free flight, and have been
productive in developing and testing the new air traffic management technologies that provide a

34 NSTC COMMITTEE ON TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT


3. STRATEGIC GOALS AND MEASURES

Conitering the likely transportation
scenario in the year 2020, the
Committee on Transportation R&D has
defined a set of strategic goals and measures
that encompass safety, security,
environmental quality and energy efficiency,
economic productivity, and accessibility and
mobility. Investment in transportation
research, technology, and education can
significantly improve the probability of
attaining these goals.

The White House and Federal agencies, in
conjunction with the National Research
Council (NRC), have been working to
identify strategic goals and appropriate
measures to determine the impact of Federal
Government research and technology
investments on the performance of the
national transportation system. For example,
over the past two years the NRC has
conducted roundtables for key members of
the Federal transportation enterprise and
supported the definition of national
transportation goals and strategic
partnerships and measures.

What follows is a more detailed discussion

of the five major goals upon which this
Strategy is based.

TRANSPORTATION SAFETY

STRATEGIC GOALS AND MEASURES
Provide a safer transportation system.

e = Level of reduction in transportation-related
fatalities, injuries, and property loss.

Achieve a high level of transportation system
security.

© Level of public trust and confidence in the
security of the Nation’s transportation network as
determined from national surveys.

Improve environmental quality and energy
efficiency.

© Number of major areas not now attaining
legislatively-mandated air quality standards that
reach these air quality goals by 2020.

Foster economic growth and productivity through
more effective and flexible global passenger and
freight services.

e Level of cost-effective passenger and freight
throughput.

Ensure improved access fo and increased mobility
on the Nation’s transportation system.

© Degree of increased and enhanced access and
mobility of the elderly, the poor, and other
transportation-disadvantaged populations.

A core transportation objective is to reduce deaths and injuries and to minimize the dangers
associated with transportation. Worldwide, 250,000 people a year are killed in transportation
accidents and over 10 million are injured. The fatality and injury rates in developing countries
are three to four times those of the U.S. As the number of motor vehicles in the developing

6 NSTC COMMITTEE ON TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT



societal concerns. The combined impacts of devolution and transportation agency changes
demand that professionals be taught the most effective and innovative management
techniques.

Globalization: Transportation continues to reflect a global economy. Manufacturing and
logistics chains now rely on the transportation operations and facilities of many countries.
Likewise, increased world business and leisure travel requires that transportation
professionals be aware of changing customer needs. For example, Japan, France, and
Germany require their university transportation students to work in transportation abroad
prior to graduation to provide them with a better understanding of global transportation

operations.
These changes demand a new focus on CRITERIA FOR
initiatives to address the evolving needs of the EDUCATION AND TRAINING
transportation workforce. This Strategy
defines four key education and training @ Build professional capacity of industry and
initiatives that meet the criteria listed in the State/local transportation agency staffs.
accompanying box. © Create general public awareness of transportation

benefits.

Introduction of Transportation Concepts:
Elementary and Secondary Education e@ Ensure a globally competitive workforce.

Ty : © Prepare next-generation transportation
ransportation permeates every aspect of the professionals with multidisciplinary education.

Nation’s economy, yet little effort is made to a

show elementary and secondary students the

connection between their studies and the transportation systems around them. Many students are
lost to the transportation profession simply because they have been given no incentive to pursue
subjects such as mathematics and science that are essential to advancing in the field. Of even
greater importance is the school system’s responsibility to produce citizens capable of making
informed choices in a democracy. This Nation is shortchanging itself and its posterity when it
fails to provide its young people with the knowledge of how transportation systems connect them
to each other and the world. This initiative will stimulate collaborative public-private
partnerships to assist educators in developing and delivering transportation education modules
that are fully integrated into the curriculum for each grade level.

Vocational and Technical Training

Transportation has been and continues to be a major source of the Nation’s jobs. The need for
well-trained and efficient transportation workers is crucial to the safety and competitiveness of
the transportation system. This initiative supports collaborative investments with vocational
schools, community colleges, and industrial training institutes to ensure a steady supply of
capable workers to the transportation enterprise.

24 NSTC COMMITTEE ON TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT




EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT
Office of Science and Technology Policy

For Immediate Release
November 17, 1997

SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY STRATEGY TO ADVANCE U.S. TRANSPORTATION
SYSTEMS OF THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

Dr. John H. Gibbons, Assistant to the President for Science and Technology, today
released the National Science and Technology Council (NSTC) report, Transportation
Science and Technology Strategy. The comprehensive strategic plan developed by this
cabinet-level council’s Committee on Transportation Research and Development was the
result of an inter-agency team representing the Departments of Transportation, Defense,
Energy, and Commerce, the Environmental Protection Agency, the National Aeronautics
and Space Administration, the National Science Foundation, and the White House. The
plan addresses the President's commitment to national transportation goals of safety,
security, mobility, economic competitiveness, and environmental quality.

"Transportation demands of the twenty-first century will require more
sophisticated applications of technology in order to keep America's citizens and products
moving safely and efficiently at reasonable speed and cost, and with minimal
environmental impact,” said Dr. Gibbons. The President's science advisor added, "this
strategy identifies promising and innovative ways for the Federal government to partner
successfully with U.S. industry and academia to leverage scarce R&D dollars. This is a
well-thought out strategy that can provide the world's best transportation system for both
the American public and U.S. industry in the twenty-first century.”

The report focuses on transportation technologies designed to be convenient and
safe for people, as well as technologies to provide high quality accessible transportation
service for the nation’s elderly and disadvantaged populations. Other focus areas include
enhanced weather information, next generation global air transportation, aviation safety
research, physical infrastructure, improved freight movement through international and
domestic gateways, and the environmental sustainability of transportation systems.

The improved effectiveness of government-wide transportation research and
development programs is reflected in the FY 1998 President's budget and the research
title of the Administration’s National Economic Crossroads Transportation Efficiency Act.
The National Transportation Science and Technology home page (http://scitech. dot. gov)
is a one-stop resource for additional information on Federal, national and international
transportation planning, technology, and R&D activities. Copies of the report are
available at the NSTC at 202/456-6100.


Participants: NASA; DOT (FAA); DoD; airlines; manufacturers; and universities.

Benefits: Reduced aviation accidents and accident-related fatalities and improved capacity
to meet safely the growing world demand for air transportation.

Transportation Physical Infrastructure

Total Terminal Security

Goal: Develop a standardized approach to assessing the security threat at transportation
facilities and implement a standard security package specifically tailored to that level of
threat.

Participants: DOT; the intelligence community; domestic law enforcement agencies; State
and local transportation and law enforcement agencies; airport and port authorities; and
public and private transportation service providers.

Benefits: Greater security for transportation users and operators through the development of
a standard approach for assessing vulnerabilities and risks at transportation facilities, and
the collection of valuable information regarding cost-effective allocation of security
resources and implementation of security measures.

Monitoring, Maintenance, and Rapid Renewal of the Physical Infrastructure

Goal: Stimulate and facilitate the effective use of both innovative and conventional
construction designs, structures, materials, and methods in the rehabilitation, renewal, and
replacement of the physical transportation infrastructure.

Participants: DOT; DoD; DOE; DOC (National Institute of Standards and Technology
[NIST)); National Science Foundation (NSF); Civil Engineering Research Foundation
(CERF); transportation construction firms; manufacturers; and State and local transportation
agencies.

Benefits: Improved safety and economic productivity of the physical infrastructure through
reduced likelihood of catastrophic failure, lower life-cycle investment for system renewal
and expansion, and fewer service interruptions.

Environmental Sustainability of Transportation Systems
Goal: Investigate the technological and behavioral implications of alternative transportation

infrastructures and development patterns to determine those that minimize impacts on long-
term environmental sustainability.

TRANSPORTATION SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY STRATEGY 17


population in the industrialized world will be this age. The United States alone will experience
far greater growth in its elder population—an estimated 53 million people will be over 65 in
the United States by 2020. This dramatic growth in the aging population will necessitate new
approaches to transportation and mobility, among them changes in traditional transit services,
transportation infrastructure, and vehicles.

ECONOMIC GROWTH AND GLOBALIZATION

Although there continues to be incredible poverty throughout the world, economic growth in
selected regions is providing a base for the development of newly-emerging upper and middle
income classes. Gross domestic product per capita is steadily increasing in many countries.
This trend is quite dramatic in newly industrialized countries, particularly in several Pacific
Rim nations, such as Indonesia and Thailand. More people have more disposable income, after
paying for food, shelter, and other necessities, than in any other period in human history. This
income, combined with the influence of the mass media and telecommunications, will continue
to create a booming travel and tourism market.

As world tourism becomes an increasing share of transportation demand, the capacity of many
nations’ surface and air transportation infrastructures will be strained. In parallel with growth
in international tourism and travel will be corresponding increases in international goods
movement. Low-cost communication and transportation networks have already resulted in a
global manufacturing and marketing enterprise. In this interdependent world economy,
continued growth in international trade will increase the demand for freight transportation
facilities and place increasingly stringent cost and reliability requirements on transportation
networks. Coupled with this, use of information networks for “virtual” conduct of business
may reduce demands for some kinds of personal travel, while simultaneously increasing
demands for other kinds of passenger and freight services.

URBANIZATION AND MOTORIZATION

About 45 percent of the world’s population currently lives in urban areas. By 2025, it is
projected that more than 60 percent of the projected 8.5 billion people in the world will be
living in cities—many of them in megacities with populations of 10 million or more. Together
with economic development, growth in the world’s urban areas has led to a dramatic increase
in the number of motor vehicles over the past 25 years. In 1970, there were 246 million
vehicles registered in the world, 44 percent of them in the United States. By 1992, the world
had 614 million vehicles, two and a half times the number in 1970, with only 31 percent in this
country. In fact, the global fleet has been growing linearly since 1970, with each year bringing
an additional 16 million vehicles. Should this trend continue, there would be more than 1.1
billion vehicles in the world fleet by 2025.

TRANSPORTATION SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY STRATEGY 3


and reliable freight movement through urban and suburban centers. At the same time, the shift
of manufacturing to the developing world and the increasing “out-sourcing” of component and
parts production will necessitate increased freight movements during the manufacturing
process itself.

Transportation decision-makers at all levels will need to respond rapidly to these demands for
passenger and freight services. Yet, many local officials are not aware of the significance of
these issues to their regions’ economies or of the infrastructure and operational needs of these
activities. In order to consider the entire transportation system—including all modes and the
connections among them, both locally and internationally—as well as alternatives to physical
travel in making major transportation decisions, transportation officials will need better
planning tools, information, and technologies to assess the impacts of such choices.

One potential measure of success could be the level of cost-effective passenger and
freight throughput.

ACCESSIBILITY AND MOBILITY

Among the transportation enterprise’s primary missions is to help local agencies provide
essential, affordable transportation services to those who—because of age, disability, income,
or personal preference—do not use an automobile. For example, estimates suggest that by the
year 2020, 17 to 20 percent of the population will be over 65, with the fastest growing cohort
those least likely to have easy access to automobile transportation—the population 85 and
older. Likewise, those young or old with physical disabilities have considerable mobility
needs. Welfare reform places renewed emphasis on the importance of mobility for those
attempting to access and retain employment but who do not own an automobile. The spatial
disparity of where new employment centers are located and where many of the poor live points
to a serious mobility gap.

Together with these issues, the recent major growth in suburb-to-suburb commutes and
“reverse” commuting (city center to suburb), new and decentralized employment locations,
variable employment schedules, and the growing number of non-commute trips create
considerable challenges for fixed-route transit services and other alternatives to private
automobile travel. The challenge for the transportation enterprise will be to manage limited
resources effectively to provide access and mobility for all segments of the population.

One potential measure of success could be the increase in travel and mobility resulting
from improved access of the elderly, the poor, and other transportation-disadvantaged
populations to transportation services.

TRANSPORTATION SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY STRATEGY 9


organizing and managing transportation and business activities. With an evolved information
infrastructure in place, alternatives such as telecommuting, video teleconferencing, remote
shopping, banking, and research by computer will become serious alternatives to trip-making.

When trips are necessary, there will be an increasing number of potential alternatives for
various transportation functions, each offering real benefits. For example, the transportation
vehicles manufactured 25 years hence can be expected to offer dramatic advances in
sustainability, performance, and cost, based on refinement and innovation affecting almost
every component. The Administration’s Partnership for a New Generation of Vehicles
(PNGV) will yield significant improvements leading to lighter weight, lower-cost materials,
improved emission characteristics, and greatly reduced petroleum requirements. In general,
technological advances will be critical factors in ensuring that the overall transportation system
is brought to its full potential in terms of life-cycle economics, energy efficiency, and minimal
adverse societal impacts.

TRANSPORTATION SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY STRATEGY 5


Participants: DOT; EPA; DOE; HHS; Department of Housing and Urban Development
(HUD); the private sector; academia; non-governmental organizations; and State and local
government agencies.

Benefits: Improved ability to understand the linkages between transportation and the
environment, and how more sustainable transportation systems benefit society.

ENABLING RESEARCH

Innovations in transportation generally result from the application of a wide range of scientific
and engineering disciplines not specific to transportation. Continual research in these areas is
necessary to provide a solid foundation for the steady advances in transportation technology
required to meet the demands of the 21st century. Yet, the long-term nature and often diffuse
benefits of such research means that market forces may be insufficient to motivate private
investment. Moreover, while many Federal agencies conduct research in these areas, that R&D is
typically focused on agencies’ specific

concerns—not on broader national needs. Thus, | ~|

as stated in the General Accounting Office report EN ert ro CH
on Surface Transportation Research Funding,

Federal Role, and Emerging Issues, as well as by
numerous transportation officials, “the current mix
of research projects gives too little emphasis to | © Benefits too widely spread for any one
basic, long-term, high-risk surface transportation | company to recover its investment at a
research.” | profit.
i

© Supports long-term national transportation
goals.

This Strategy identifies six long-term research | © Cost or risk is too great for any individual
areas that are consistent with the principles of the company to bear alone.

President’s Committee of Advisors on Science © Benefits too far in the future to pass

and Technology, meet the criteria listed in the box | threshold of private investment criteria.

to the right, and support one or more ~
transportation system elements (as shown in

Exhibit B). These enabling research areas are (1) human performance and behavior;

(2) advanced materials; (3) computer, information, and communication systems; (4) energy and
environment; (5) sensing and measurement; and (6) tools for transportation modeling, design, and
construction.

Human Performance and Behavior

For transportation systems to achieve high goals for performance and cost, their design,
realization, and use must be based on (1) extensive knowledge of user needs; (2) limitations

18 NSTC COMMITTEE ON TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT


TRANSPORTATION EDUCATION AND TRAINING

The Federal Government has long supported transportation education. Yet, changes in
transportation and its environment demand a more focused effort across the Government to
address the evolving needs of transportation professionals and workers. This Strategy identifies
four education and training initiatives that will build the professional capacity of the
transportation workforce, create general public awareness of transportation benefits, ensure a
globally competitive workforce, and prepare the next generation of transportation professionals
with a multidisciplined education:

@ = Introduction of Transportation Concepts: Elementary and Secondary Education
@ = Vocational and Technical Training
@ = Transportation Degree Programs: International and Multidisciplinary

@ = Mid-Career Transportation Training

vi NSTC COMMITTEE ON TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT


Monitoring, Maintenance, and Rapid Renewal of the Physical Infrastructure

The Nation 8 transportation infrastructure 1s Initiative: Monitoring, Maintenance, and Rapid
aging—its elements either nearing or Renewal of the Physical Infrastructure.

exceeding their design life. This aging
infrastructure must be incrementally restored, Goal: Stimulate and facilitate the effective use of both

renewed, and strengthened. Many elements innovative and conventional construction designs,
in + so. structures, materials, and methods in the rehabilitation,
also require capacity expansion if our

renewal, and replacement of the physical

growing needs for transportation are to be transportation infrastructure.
met. Yet, there is a pressing need to “do
more with less” in maintaining the physical Participants: DOT; DoD; DOE; DOC (NIST); NSF;

CERF; transportation construction firms;

infrastructure for surface, air, marine, and .
manufacturers; and State and local transportation

multimodal nodes in transportation. The

agencies.
DOT Report to Congress, 1995 Status of the
Nation’s Surface Transportation System: Benefits: Improved safety and economic productivity
Conditions and Performance, estimated that of the physical infrastructure through reduced

an annual investment of approximately $57 likelihood of catastrophic failure, lower life-cycle
investment for system renewal and expansion, and

billion would be required from all sources fewer service interruptions.

just to maintain current conditions (including a)
congestion remediation), with $80 billion

required to provide a higher level of service by correcting existing deficiencies. Moreover,
several major airports, which were not addressed in this report, suffer from severe and growing
congestion and delays, and capacity shortfalls in the ground systems serving them, while more
than $4 billion is spent each year to maintain, repave, and expand existing runways.

Reducing the backlog of needed infrastructure rehabilitation and renewal, and meeting the critical
need for improved infrastructure performance and capacity, poses major challenges in terms of
life-cycle cost, safety, reliability, and environmental impacts. The growing maintenance funding
gap can be bridged only by restructuring the technology base for physical infrastructure renewal.

This initiative proposes joint strategic R&D investments in key technologies to ensure the safe
operability of the aging infrastructure and the timely detection of deteriorating conditions. These
infrastructure technologies fall within three areas:

Renewal Engineering: This technology area covers the use of improved materials, designs,
and methods for infrastructure renewal. Specific technologies include new construction
methods such as automation and robotics, trenchless and other advanced tunneling, and
efficient cut-and-cover; advanced structural materials, including durable composites and
metal-composite hybrids; and advanced paints and spray coatings.

Advanced Infrastructure Inspection, Monitoring, and Maintenance: Included in this
technology area are nondestructive test and evaluation technologies and “smart” sensors

44 NSTC COMMITTEE ON TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT




Enhanced Transportation Weather Services

Goal: Improve transportation safety and efficiency by demonstrating the data-integration
capabilities necessary to provide short-term, very small-scale weather forecasts.

Participants: DOT (FAA, ITS Joint Program Office, USCG, FHWA, FRA); National
Weather Service (NWS); private vendors; and State and local agencies.

Benefits: In aviation, improved capabilities for flight planning and severe weather
avoidance, greater system throughput, reduced fuel consumption, and lower deicing costs
for airports; for ocean shippers, financial savings due to forecasts that allow planning for the
most efficient routes; and in surface transportation, reduced highway accidents and related
injuries, lower costs for trucking firms, and lower snow- and ice-control costs for State and
local highway departments.

Enhanced Goods and Freight Movement at Domestic and International Gateways

Goal: Enhance U.S. economic growth by expanding the overall share of global and
domestic trade markets through advances in transportation technology and systems.

Participants: DOT (ITS Joint Program Office, MARAD, FRA, FAA, FHWA, NHTSA);
DOC; and other organizations representing the public, private, and defense sectors.

Benefits: A more productive, competitive national economy and a more flexible, efficient,
and seamless U.S. freight transportation system.

Accessibility for Aging and Transportation-Disadvantaged Populations

Goal: Create seamless regional alternative transportation systems serving the needs of the
elderly and transportation-disadvantaged while optimizing the existing human and capital
investment in paratransit.

Participants: DOT (FTA, FRA, FAA, FHWA, NHTSA); Department of Health and
Human Services (HHS); private vendors; and State, regional, and local government
agencies.

Benefits: Reduced health care costs for the elderly; reduced welfare expenditures and
improved job placement and retention for welfare recipients; and reduced public outlays for
new equipment through improved management of existing infrastructure and assets.

TRANSPORTATION SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY STRATEGY 15


ABSTRACT

The National Science and Technology Council’s (NSTC’s) Committee on Transportation R&D (CTRD) has
prepared the first comprehensive, Government-wide Transportation Science and Technology Strategy, which
provides a framework for guiding Federal transportation R&D toward meeting national transportation goals, not
simply those of individual Federal Departments. The Strategy is based both on analytical material (including a
broad environmental scan and an assessment of the transportation system’s current and future strengths,
weaknesses, opportunities, and threats) and on consultations with all sectors of the transportation enterprise
(solicited at a variety of outreach events, workshops, and roundtables held in conjunction with the National
Research Council’s Transportation Research Board).

The CTRD’s Transportation Science and Technology Strategy establishes a four-tiered approach to develop a
coordinated Federal transportation S&T program:

1. Strategic Planning and System Assessment activities help provide direction for future R&D in addressing
national transportation goals, as well as establish a process for assessing the impact of those investments on the
performance of the Nation’s transportation system.

2. Strategic Partnership Initiatives identify opportunities for government, industry, and academia to apply
their collective capabilities and resources to demonstrate and deploy technology solutions to national
transportation challenges, such as improving mobility for aging and transportation-disadvantaged Americans.

3. Enabling Research develops the research and knowledge base that will create breakthroughs in
transportation technology, foster innovation, and provide the new transportation technologies and options to
make possible a human-centered transportation system for the Nation.

4. Transportation Education and Training provides the cadre of competent transportation professionals and
increased public awareness necessary to develop and apply new options and technologies.

This Strategy is the first step in institutionalizing a collaborative transportation R&D strategic planning process
not only within the Federal Government but also with the transportation enterprise that it serves. The hope is
that this process will help the Congress, the White House, and the American people create a world-class
transportation R&D enterprise that will be the engine for continued economic growth and prosperity and for
improvement of the quality of life for its citizens.

For additional copies and further information, contact:

Dr. Fenton Carey, Executive Director, NSTC Committee on Transportation R&D
202-366-4434 (phone) 202-366-3671 (fax)

National Science and Technology Council Executive Secretariat
202-456-6102 (phone) 202-456-6026 (fax)

Also available on the NSTC Home Page via link from the OSTP Home Page at:

http://www.whitehouse.gov/ WH/EOP/OSTP/html/OSTP_Home.html



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STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIP INITIATIVES

A critical element of this Strategy is the identification of technology-based partnerships among

government, industry, and academia. One of the tenets of the President’s Committee of
Advisors on Science and Technology is that the Nation can best profit from investments in
basic science and research through partnerships and the exchange of people and ideas among
Federal agencies, State and local governments, private companies, universities, public interest

groups, and other stakeholders.

For agencies with transportation R&D
responsibilities, strategic partnerships can
expedite the research process and speed the
introduction of much-needed new
technologies into transportation systems and
operations. Based on broad public and
private sector input, this Strategy identifies
twelve partnership initiatives offering some
of the greatest benefits for transportation.
These efforts are intended to integrate
ongoing activities with new components,
developed within the Federal program
development process, and the overall limits
established for Federal funding. These
initiatives build on recommendations from
various outreach events and meet all of the
criteria listed in the box to the right. As
shown in Exhibit A on the next page, each
initiative addresses one or more of the

CRITERIA FOR
PARTNERSHIP INITIATIVES

Addresses a real recognized national
transportation system-level need.

Has a technology focus—ideally a self-contained,
readily implementable piece of technology.

Market for the technology-based improvement
exists—if successful with the technology, could
rely on existing market forces and the private
sector for widespread implementation.

Is a need for a Federal role, with benefits to the
Nation as a whole—taxpayers, traveling public,
industry; the initiative could not proceed in a
timely fashion without Federal involvement,
support, or coordination, but also requires private
sector cooperation and participation.

national transportation goals. The twelve partnership initiatives are summarized below and
presented in detail in Appendix B. The initiatives fall into three overlapping and interrelated
categories: (1) transportation information infrastructure; (2) next-generation vehicles; and

(3) transportation physical infrastructure.

Transportation Information Infrastructure

e@ Smart Vehicles and Operators

Goal: Reduce the occurrence of accidents in all modes of transportation through an
enhanced understanding of human performance and behavior; the application of
human-centered technological aids and systems for accident avoidance; and the
development of advanced materials and technologies for vehicle operator training.

12. NSTC COMMITTEE ON TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT


Technical Report Documentation Page

1. Report No. 2. Government Accession No, 3. Recipient's Catalog No.
DOT-T-97-26

4. Title and Subtitle 5. Report Date

Transportation Science and Technology Strategy September 1997

6. Performing Organizational Code

8, Performing Organization Report No.

7. Author(s)

9. Performing Organization Name and Address 10, Work Unit No. (TRAIS)
Research and Special Programs Administrations
U.S. Department of Transportation

400 Seventh Street SW

Washington, DC 20590

11. Contract or Grant No.

13. Type of Report and Period Covered
12. Sponsoring Agency Name and Address September 1997

14. Sponsoring Agency Code
DOT/RSPA

15. Supplementary Notes
Released in cooperation with the U.S. Department of Transportation's Technology Sharing Program

16. Abstract
This report, released by the National Science Technology Council (NSTC), is a comprehensive strategic plan developed by the

Departments of Transportation, Defense, Energy, and Commerce, the Environmental Protection Agency, the National Aeronautics
and Space Administration, the National Science Foundation, and the White House. The plan addresses the President's commitment |
to national transportation goals of safety, security, mobility, economic competitiveness, and environmental quality. This strategy |
identifies promising and innovative ways for the Federal government to partner successfully with U.S. industry and academia to
leverage scarce R&D dollars. The report focuses on transportation technologies designed to be convenient and safe for people, as
well as technologies to provide high quality accessible transportation service for the nation's elderly and disadvantaged populations.
Other focus areas include enhanced weather information, next generation global air transportation, aviation safety research, physical
infrastructure, improved freight movement through international and domestic gateways, and the environmental sustainability of

transportation systems.

17. Key Words 18. Distribution Statement
| Transportation; Strategic Planning; Technology Availability is unlimited. Document is being released for
Safety; Air Transportation; Freight Movement sale to the U.S. public through the National Technical
Environmental Information Service, Springfield, Virginia 22161
19. Security Classif. (of this report) 20. Security Classif, (of this page) 21. No. of Pages 22. Price
Unclassified Unclassified | 50

Form DOT F 1700.7 (8-72) Per FORM PRO/Delrina 04/04/94 Reproduction of completed page authorized




1. VISION

Mx than ever before, technological leadership is vital to our national interests. As stated
in the recent National Science and Technology Council (NSTC) report, Technology in the
National Interest, “Our ability to harness the power and promise of leading-edge advances in
technology will determine, in large measure, our national prosperity, security, and global
influence, and with them the standard of living and quality of life of our people.”

Technology is particularly essential to the health of our transportation system. America’s
transportation system comprises a growing network of highways, transit systems, railroads,
waterways, airports, airways, seaports, and pipelines that is critical to the Nation’s vitality and
economic well-being. Innovations in transportation contribute to America’s global
competitiveness and national security. They enhance our environment and local communities.
And, perhaps most importantly, they save lives and reduce the risk of accidents and injuries.

The NSTC Committee on Transportation Research and Development (R&D) has developed this
Transportation Science and Technology Strategy as a rationale and framework for guiding
Federal partnership initiatives; long-term, strategic research; and education and training that will
make our transportation system safer, more productive, and more efficient. The Strategy
supports the vision of the Committee, set forth in the Strategic Planning Document published in
1995, and the Administration’s national transportation goals:

“The Committee’s vision is of a sustainable and seamless intermodal
transportation system that effectively ties America together and links it to the
world. This system will help citizens and businesses satisfy their needs by
providing efficient, safe, secure, and environmentally-friendly transportation of
people and goods. It will result from a strengthened partnership among
government, academia, and the private sector focused on effective management
and renewal of existing infrastructure, strategic deployment of new technologies
and infrastructure, and on R&D which supports each of these.”

TRANSPORTATION SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY STRATEGY 1


THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON

Dear Colleague:

The Nation’s transportation system stands at a historic crossroads. Changing
demographics, worldwide economic growth, expanding global trade and tourism, ongoing
urbanization, and safety and security concerns complicate means to satisfy increasing demands
for transportation services. New and emerging technologies offer solutions to this dilemma,
providing a flexible transportation system that is responsive to the changing needs of our society.

Transportation Science and Technology Strategy offers a framework to guide Federal
transportation R&D to meet our national transportation goals of safety, security, energy
efficiency, global competitiveness, environmental quality, and accessibility to transportation for
all Ameticans. It responds to the greatest challenge facing the Nation’s transportation system
and the Federal R&D community—how to do more with less—by identifying innovative ways to
partner successfully with industry and academia to leverage scarce R&D dollars.

This document builds on previous activities and reports of the National Science and
Technology Council’s (NSTC) Committee on Transportation R&D (CTRD). As with previous
NSTC initiatives, the CTRD hopes that Transportation Science and Technology Strategy will
promote a continuing dialogue among the elements of our national transportation enterprise, and
harness the Nation’s collective talents and resources to shape and advance the transportation
system of the 21 century.

Sincerely,

Jqhn FH. - ff

Assisthat to the President
for
Science and Technology


world increases, world fatalities may reach 1 million per year, with 40 to 50 million injuries.
Another consequence of growing demand will be a doubling of the world civil aviation fleet.
At current accident rates, a doubling of civil aviation traffic implies more than 4,500 annual
aviation-related fatalities worldwide by 2025.

Today, more than 40,000 people are killed on our Nation’s highways each year—the equivalent
of a DC-9 crashing and killing all of its occupants every day of the year. Many fatalities are
caused by errors in driver judgment due to inadequate or untimely information necessary to
avoid a collision. Human error is the most pervasive fundamental problem and the greatest
limitation to improving transportation safety and efficiency. Thus, a major focus of the
transportation enterprise’s R&D activity is to understand the causes of, and determine the
means to eliminate, human error as it relates to the safe operation of vehicles in all modes of
transportation.

These and other major issues ensure that safety concerns will continue to be integral to many
transportation R&D initiatives.

One potential measure of success could be the level of reduction in transportation-
related fatalities, injuries, and property loss.

TRANSPORTATION SECURITY

Security is a key element in retaining the public’s trust and confidence in the global
transportation system. Yet, in the last few decades, the threat of hijacking and deliberate
sabotage has become real and highly visible worldwide. In the aviation arena, for example, it
is an enormous challenge to keep all weapons and explosive materials off an airplane carrying
several hundred people and their highly varied luggage. At the same time, recent plots or
actual attacks have been made against rail, subway, bus, and highway targets, both
domestically and internationally.

The security of transportation’s information infrastructure is another area of growing concern.
A transportation system permeated with information technologies could prove highly
vulnerable to malicious and terrorist attacks focused on introduction of false information into
the system or interference with computer and communication system operation. As
transportation systems become increasingly integrated with information systems, the potential
increases for widespread system disruption and personal injury as a result of such security
breaches.

One potential measure of success could be the level of public trust and confidence in the
security of the Nation’s transportation network as determined from national surveys.

TRANSPORTATION SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY STRATEGY 7


Wiest mn

NATIONAL SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY COUNCIL

TRANSPORTATION SCIENCE AND
TECHNOLOGY STRATEGY

Committee on Transportation Research and Development
Intermodal Transportation Science and Technology Strategy Team

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APPENDIX B

STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIP INITIATIVES

his appendix provides greater detail about each of the strategic partnership initiatives

identified in the CTRB’s Transportation Science and Technology Strategy. As in Section 4,
these initiatives are grouped here into three categories: (1) transportation information
infrastructure; (2) next-generation vehicles; and (3) transportation physical infrastructure.

TRANSPORTATION INFORMATION INFRASTRUCTURE

Smart Vehicles and Operators

The first priority in safety is prevention—stopping accidents before they occur. The great
majority of transportation accidents involve at least some degree of operator error brought on by
fatigue, inattention, or incapacitation. An appropriate response to these concerns can be

Initiative: Smart Vehicles and Operators.

Goal: Reduce the occurrence of accidents in all modes
of transportation through an enhanced understanding of
human performance and behavior; the application of
human-centered technological aids and systems for
accident avoidance; and the development of advanced
materials and technologies for vehicle operator
training.

Participants: DOT (ITS Joint Program Office, FHWA,
NHTSA, FTA, FRA, MARAD, and USCG), DOC, and
other Federal agencies; the technology community;
vendors; States; associations of vehicle operators;
railroads; transportation companies; and vehicle
manufacturers.

Benefits: A safer highway, railroad, transit, and
waterways system, with fewer deaths and injuries, and
less suffering and property loss, accompanied by a
reduction in trauma injuries for the U.S. health care
system to deal with; reduced transportation vehicle
repair costs; and, potentially, reduced automobile
insurance premiums.

formulated only on the foundation of a solid
understanding of human characteristics as
they relate to vehicle operation.

Technical advances, particularly in
information technologies, now offer many
possibilities in terms of devices to warn
operators of unsafe circumstances, or to
suggest or even initiate corrective actions.
The ITS program, for example, specifically
includes elements intended to assure full
exploitation of these opportunities.
Additionally, innovative means of inspecting
and monitoring the condition of vehicle and
infrastructure components, periodically or
while in operation, can make it possible to
take corrective action before an accident
occurs.

This partnership initiative incorporates a
wide variety of R&D activities associated
with accident avoidance. For conciseness,

30 NSTC COMMITTEE ON TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT


NSTC COMMITTEE ON TRANSPORTATION
RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT

Chair: Mr. Mortimer L. Downey

Vice-Chair: Dr. Robert Whitehead

White House Co-Chair: Dr. Henry Kelly

Executive Director: Dr. Fenton Carey

Members:
Dr. John P. White

Dr. Mary L. Good

Mr. Michael Deich

Mr. Carmen Difiglio

Mr. David M. Gardiner

Mr. Frank E. Kruesi

Ms. Louise F. Stoll

Consultant: Dr. Richard R. John

Deputy Secretary, U.S. Department of Transportation

Associate Administrator for Aeronautics,
National Aeronautics and Space Administration

Acting Associate Director for Technology,
Office of Science and Technology Policy,
Executive Office of the President

Associate Administrator for Research,
Technology, and Analysis,

Research and Special Programs Administration,

U.S. Department of Transportation

Deputy Secretary, U.S. Department of Defense

Under Secretary for Technology,
U.S. Department of Commerce

Associate Director for General Government and Finance,
Office of Management & Budget

Director, Office of Energy Efficiency,
Alternative Fuels, and Oil Analysis,
U.S. Department of Energy

Associate Administrator for Policy, Planning, and Evaluation,
Environmental Protection Agency

Assistant Secretary for Transportation Policy,
U.S. Department of Transportation

Assistant Secretary for Budget and Programs,
U.S. Department of Transportation

Director, Volpe National Transportation Systems Center,
U.S. Department of Transportation



PREFACE

his Transportation Science and Technology Strategy addresses many complex issues needed
to build a transportation system for the 21st century. I am enthusiastic that the Federal
Government has been visionary in moving this bold strategy for a bold nation.

President Clinton believes that “investing in technology is investing in America’s future.” It will
be investments in transportation education, research, and technology that increase America’s
competitiveness in the world and our ability to create high-paying jobs for millions of
Americans. A growing economy requires a transportation system that can move people, goods,
and services quickly and safely.

At the beginning of President Clinton’s Administration, Assistant to the President for Science
and Technology, Dr. John Gibbons, asked my predecessor, Secretary of Transportation Federico
Pefia, to take the lead in establishing an Interagency Coordinating Committee on Transportation
R&D. Under the able guidance of Deputy Transportation Secretary Mortimer Downey, we have
done so. This strategy brings together the insights and lessons learned by that group.

Tam committed to carrying forward these efforts and to realizing the vision set forth on these
pages of a seamless and safe transportation system, with each transportation sector working
effectively by itself and as part of a larger, interconnected whole to move a nation.

On these pages is the technology policy architecture that will help decision-makers build a 21st
century transportation system that will keep our citizens the most mobile in the world, our
economy the strongest, and our environment the cleanest. And clearly this strategy will continue
into the next century my long-held belief that transportation projects are more than concrete,
asphalt, and steel; they are about providing opportunities for all Americans.

(dit

Rodney E. Slater
USS. Secretary of Transportation



of all agencies and organizations active in this area, including Federal, State, and local agencies
with transportation, law enforcement, and threat-analysis responsibilities; airport and port
authorities; and private transportation service providers.

Initiative: Total Terminal Security.

Goal: Develop a standardized approach to assessing
the security threat at transportation facilities and
implement a standard security package specifically
tailored to that level of threat.

Participants: DOT; the intelligence community;
domestic law enforcement agencies; State and local
transportation and law enforcement agencies; airport
and port authorities; and public and private
transportation service providers.

Benefits: Greater security for transportation users and
operators through the development of a standard
approach for assessing vulnerabilities and risks at
transportation facilities, and the collection of valuable
information regarding cost-effective allocation of
security resources and implementation of security
measures,

This initiative will modify an approach taken
by the State Department for application to
major transportation terminals, facilities, and
operations. This concept, called “Total
Terminal Security,” will enable the
transportation community to apply a standard,
acceptable methodology to the allocation of
security resources and implementation of
security measures at each location. In practice,
this concept will cover the range of major
security elements, including physical security
and public access controls, personnel security,
perimeter security, technical security, and,
where relevant, communications and
information systems security.

One example of a transportation facility to be
included in this approach is domestic airports.
Under this initiative, new systems for detecting

weapons and explosives will be incorporated with other developments in physical security, and
with passenger profiling, into a “package” implemented at three to five airports to assess its
effectiveness as a total integrated system. The selected airports will become operational

laboratories for validating the integration of airport and airline security, new security technology,
and the participation of various organizations such as local government agencies, the Federal
Bureau of Investigation, and others. Using three to five different airports will help to identify
problems that may arise when the total security concept is applied to specific sites. The airports’
security systems will be evaluated in terms of passenger and cargo throughput, delay time due to
the inspection process, and operating costs. If the total security concept works as well as
expected, the test airports will serve as models for the rest of the Nation’s airports and for the
international community.

This airport security activity is already well under way. The FAA has accomplished simulations
of total security packages and, based on these simulations, has developed projected deployment
plans. This initiative would expand current work to the three to five operational tests at airports
and develop similar integrated security packages for other transportation facilities.

TRANSPORTATION SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY STRATEGY 43


5. CONCLUSIONS

A: discussed, a key tenet of the President’s Committee of Advisors on Science and
Technology is that the Nation can best profit from investments in basic science and research
through strategic partnerships among government, industry, and academia. By partnering with
private companies, State and local governments, universities, public interest organizations, and
other stakeholders, Federal agencies can expedite the research process and speed the introduction
of much-needed new technologies. As we enter the 21st century, this will be particularly critical
for transportation, where both the challenges and the opportunities are great.

The CTRD’s Transportation Science and Technology Strategy presents a vision for transportation
in the next century and identifies the technology partnerships, enabling research, and education
and training needed to achieve national transportation goals. Implementation of this Strategy will
allow this Nation to meet the increased demand for transportation while balancing the sometimes
competing values of safety, security, environmental quality and energy efficiency, economic
productivity, and accessibility and mobility. This Strategy will help U.S. industry to compete in
global transportation markets and create new, high-wage jobs at home. Most important, this
Strategy will ensure that the next generation of Americans enjoys an even greater level of
transportation safety, efficiency, environmental protection, and mobility than we Americans
enjoy today.

26 NSTC COMMITTEE ON TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT


Participants: Department of Transportation (DOT: Intelligent Transportation Systems
[ITS] Joint Program Office, FHWA, NHTSA, FTA, FRA, MARAD, USCG), Department
of Commerce (DOC), and other Federal agencies; the technology community; vendors;
States; associations of vehicle operators; railroads; transportation companies; and vehicle
manufacturers.

Benefits: A safer highway, railroad, transit, and waterways system, with fewer deaths and
injuries, and less suffering and property loss, accompanied by a reduction in trauma
injuries for the U.S. health care system to deal with; reduced transportation vehicle repair
costs; and, potentially, reduced automobile insurance premiums.

National Intelligent Transportation Infrastructure

Goal: Deploy an intelligent transportation infrastructure across the United States within
the next decade.

Participants: DOT (ITS Joint Program Office, FHWA, FTA, FRA); State DOTs;
Metropolitan Planning Organizations (MPOs); emergency response and law enforcement
agencies; railroads; and private industry.

Benefits: Reduction in travel times in metropolitan areas; faster life-saving emergency
response and fewer congestion-related traffic incidents; more efficient public services;
reduced petroleum consumption; improved air quality; increased infrastructure capacity
without more costly new construction; and enhanced information system security.

Next-Generation Global Air Transportation

Goal: Enhance aviation system safety, efficiency, and capacity by demonstrating next-
generation concepts for air traffic management and validating the associated technologies,
procedures, and operational benefits.

Participants: DOT (FAA, USCG); NASA; Department of Defense (DoD); airlines; and
manufacturers.

Benefits: Improved safety and efficiency of the air transportation system in the face of
increasing travel and capacity demands by flights in domestic airspace and over the
oceans; advancement of the state of the art in aviation communications, navigation,
surveillance, weather, and decision-support systems; promotion of government-industry
cooperation in critical areas of aviation technology; and improved U.S. balance of trade
for aviation technologies and products.

NSTC COMMITTEE ON TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT


these activities are discussed here in three broad groups: human performance, accident avoidance
technologies, and operator training and education.

Human Performance: Research directed toward a better understanding of operator
performance in transportation systems now offers great promise. As new research
results are incorporated in vehicles, infrastructure, and overall system design and
operation, and accompanied by new technological aids to provide information and alerts
to operators, dramatic safety benefits will result. Among other activities, this initiative
will support the development of new simulator capabilities, such as those now being
completed for motor vehicle operator research, that will add substantially to the
understanding of operator behavior and decision-making, and assist in the evaluation of
the human-machine interface.

Accident Avoidance Technologies: An important use of advanced information
technology in transportation is the deployment of devices to improve operator
awareness, warn operators of hazardous circumstances or imminent threats, or initiate
responses to hazards. The ITS program, for example, includes a substantial component
that seeks to exploit these possibilities through vehicle-wayside communications,
whether by on-board devices or variable message signing. This proposed initiative will
assess the potential of an additional category of opportunities for preventing
accidents—vehicle-based systems, such as Positive Train Control. Other such systems
include “smart ships,” vessel tracking systems, air traffic alert and collision avoidance
systems, synthetic vision (e.g., night vision aids), smart cruise control, collision
warnings or automated braking, devices to detect vehicles in “blind spots,” and sensors
to detect that operator alertness has dropped to a hazardous level.

Training and Education: Even with a greatly improved understanding of human
performance and a set of advanced collision-avoidance technologies that draw upon that
knowledge, training and education will continue to be vital to ensure that vehicle
operators are knowledgeable about safety systems and safe operational procedures for
the vehicles they operate. This initiative will support the development of interactive
programs (e.g., CD-ROM video games, simulators) to train and evaluate vehicle
operators under a wider range of operational scenarios than is currently possible.

National Intelligent Transportation Infrastructure

Over the last decade, traffic in metropolitan areas has increased at a far faster rate than available
road capacity. The daily vehicle-miles traveled (VMT) per lane of urban highway has grown by
nearly 30 percent, and this has led directly to greater congestion, energy use, air quality
problems, and sprawl. During the past 15 years, both the number of trips per person and the
miles per trip have increased at about three times the rate of population growth. VMT in urban
areas have been growing at about four percent a year. In the face of this explosive growth in

TRANSPORTATION SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY STRATEGY 31


EXHIBIT A

TRANSPORTATION PARTNERSHIP

INITIATIVES AND NATIONAL GOALS

INITIATIVES

NATIONAL GOALS

ENV. QUAL7 [ECONOMIC

SAFETY SECURITY ENERGY GROWTH &

EFFICIENCY _| PRODUCTIVITY

ACCESS/
MOBILITY

INFORMATION
INFRASTRUCTURE

Smart Vehicles and
Operators

x x

x

‘National Intelligent
‘Transp. Infrastructure

X

‘Next-Generation
Global Air Transp.

Enhanced Transp.
Weather Services

x

Enhanced Goods/
Freight Movement

*

Disadvantaged
Populations

| S| P| PS] OKT OM

| |<] OS

Tocal Environmental
Assessment Systems

*

NEXT-
GENERATION
VEHICLES

‘Next-Generation Motor
Vehicles and Ships

*
Pd

Aviation Safety
Research Alliance

PHYSICAL
INFRASTRUCTURE

Total Terminal
Security

*

Physical
Infrastructure

*

Environ, Sustainability
of Transp. Systems

| | P| P<] P<

TRANSPORTATION SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY STRATEGY

13


S&T

TMIP

TRANSIMS

USCG

VMT

Science and Technology
Travel Model Improvement Program

TRansportation ANalysis SIMulation System

United States Coast Guard,
U.S. Department of Transportation

Vehicle-Miles Traveled

50 NSTC COMMITTEE ON TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT

“U.S, Government Printing Office: 1997 — 501-363,




Along with the world’s growing reliance on motor vehicles has come a concomitant increase in
environmental and energy impacts—global carbon emissions, petroleum consumption, air
pollution, and congestion. Moreover, coupled with high population growth rates and a growing
vehicle fleet, sprawling urban development is a major cause of pollution, congestion, and
poverty in many of the world’s cities. In the United States, suburban sprawl has led to spatial
disparities in the location of employment centers and concentrations of urban poor, who are
now required to find work under the recently enacted welfare reform law.

SAFETY AND SECURITY OF THE GLOBAL TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM

Over the next two decades, continued growth in world transportation demand will lead to
heightened concerns for transportation safety and security. For example, along with growth in
automobile use will come the potential for a dramatic increase in automobile-related deaths and
injuries. This is particularly true for many countries in the developing world, where the
number of motor vehicles is growing far faster than the physical, legal, and institutional
infrastructures needed to accommodate them. From 1968 to 1985, automobile fatalities
increased by more than 300 percent in eight African countries and by almost 200 percent in six
Asian nations. Even in the more industrialized countries, where safety records are typically
good by historical standards, the private automobile will continue to present safety risks.

Still other concerns will arise from the growth of air transportation and its increasing use for
international travel. Greater demand for air travel will place additional stress on an already
overburdened aviation system. Countries will seek to accommodate demand by moving
toward “free flight”—a dynamic air traffic management concept that allows pilots to choose
their own routes, altitudes, and speeds in real time—and a global infrastructure for air traffic
management. Questions may arise concerning the reliance of air systems on satellite and
digital technologies, the increasing dependence on complex software-based aids and systems,
and the need for global standards and interoperability. Moreover, the attractiveness of aviation
as a terrorist target makes it likely that aviation security, as well as security in other modes of
transportation, will be a major area of concern well into the 21st century.

TECHNOLOGICAL TRENDS

One clear reality of the late 20th century is the power of technology and the advances that can
be achieved when it is applied in the right way, to the right problems, and in concert with more
effective institutional relationships and a better understanding of the social forces that shape
travel behavior, land use, and transportation needs. The magnitude and pace of improvements
in the next century will depend on the investment of energy, imagination, and public and
private resources made at the close of the 20th century. By 2020, advances in computer,
information, and communications technologies will have dramatically changed ways of

4 NSTC COMMITTEE ON TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT


Corridor—and the cost of electrification is daunting. This partnership initiative will
support the development, test, and demonstration of non-electric, high-speed rail
technology to establish a technological context in which State and local governments and
private industry can proceed to implement new rail services.

Ships: International freight transport is critical to this country's participation in the global
economy. Total oceanborne foreign trade in 1994 had a value of $566 billion, up 13
percent from the previous year. Moreover, commercial sealift is the primary means of
sustaining military forces deployed abroad. Sufficient capacity, including readiness for
conversion of ports and a portion of the commercial fleet from civil to defense functions,
is essential to national security. It is thus important to the Nation that there be a U.S.
merchant fleet capable of competing internationally on a cost and service basis.

By supporting focused R&D designed to stimulate and foster innovation in ship design and
shipbuilding, this initiative will provide Federal participation and leadership necessary to ensure
national defense readiness and to restore the health of the U.S. maritime industry. The
President’s shipbuilding revitalization program already includes an R&D element called
MARITECH, which focuses on advanced commercial ship designs and modernization of
shipyard facilities, processes, and procedures.

R&D activities need to address not only ship structure but also ship propulsion issues. For
example, recent Navy demonstrations of fuel cells could form the basis for a partnership with the
USCG to develop this technology for wider use in ships and, potentially, for land transportation
vehicles such as locomotives, buses, trucks, and automobiles.

Aviation Safety Research Alliance

Great strides have been made over the past 40
years to make flying the safest of all of the major Initiative: Aviation Safety Research Alliance.

modes of transportation. Aviation accidents have Goal: Provide the technology to reduce the fatal
leveled off to extremely low rates. However, aviation accident rate by a factor of five in10 |
although the accident rate is very low, it has stayed | years and a factor of 10 in 20 years.
relatively constant for the past decade or so.

Moreover, the significant projected growth in air Participants: NASA; DOT (FAA); DoD;
traffic in response to gl obal demand has the airlines; manufacturers; and universities.
potential to cause the total number of accidents to Benefits: Reduced aviation accidents and

rise dramatically throughout the entire aviation accident-related fatalities and improved capacity
system over the next 20 years. to meet safely the growing world demand for air

transportation.

This partnership initiative addresses these long-
range issues proactively through an alliance

TRANSPORTATION SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY STRATEGY 41


APPENDIX C

ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS

ADA Americans with Disabilities Act of 1990

ATTB Advanced Technology Transit Bus

CAAA Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990

CERF Civil Engineering Research Foundation

CTRD Committee on Transportation Research and Development
DARPA Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency,

U.S. Department of Defense

DOC US. Department of Commerce
DoD U.S. Department of Defense

DOE U.S. Department of Energy

DOT U.S. Department of Transportation
EPA Environmental Protection Agency
FAA Federal Aviation Administration,

U.S. Department of Transportation

FHWA Federal Highway Administration,
U.S. Department of Transportation

FRA Federal Railroad Administration,
U.S. Department of Transportation

FTA Federal Transit Administration,
U.S. Department of Transportation

48 NSTC COMMITTEE ON TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT


elements and functions to enable greater efficiency, safety, and improved performance. Effective
and rapid exploitation of these innovations will require a substantial and ongoing enabling
research and development effort associated with system concepts, characterization of alternative
configurational and technical choices, and development and harmonization of a wide range of
standards.

For example, increased use of wireless communication throughout the society and economy will
require a solid technical and economic knowledge base to support policy decisions regarding
allocation and efficient use of electromagnetic spectrum and sophisticated mobile data
communications technologies. Similarly, many important transportation applications use the
highly-accurate Global Positioning System, or GPS, for position-finding and navigation. Many
technical, as well as financial and institutional issues, must be resolved to assure that this system
evolves and is managed in a manner that fully reflects the growing needs of civil transportation
users. The basic standards for electronic data interchange and system interoperability are being
addressed by appropriate trade and technical organizations, but the Federal Government has a
critical role to play in facilitating that process. The growing complexity of intelligent systems and
ever greater dependence on them for human safety and functioning of the society will require a
high level of reliability and robustness. Similarly, a transportation system permeated with
information technologies has significant new vulnerabilities to terrorist and other malicious
attacks. Coordinated Federal research is needed in software modeling and verification techniques
and in High-Confidence Systems—information systems that provide users with high levels of
security, reliability, and restorability. High-Confidence Systems are resistant to failure and
malicious penetration or damage, and respond to interference via adaptation or recovery.

Energy and Environment

Economic and environmental characteristics of transportation vehicles are determined to a large
degree by the means by which stored energy is provided and converted into kinetic energy. Each
candidate technology is typically of potential relevance to at least several modes of transportation,
and many have the ability to improve both energy efficiency and emission characteristics.
Research in this area includes electric propulsion and battery concepts, advanced internal
combustion engines, hybrid designs, and incorporation of innovations such as fuel cells and
flywheel energy storage. (Fuel cells, in particular, offer significant potential benefits in terms of
energy conversion and mitigation of transportation’s adverse environmental impacts.) A variety
of alternative fuels are possible, each with strengths and weaknesses in terms of economics,
practicality, and indirect impacts. Market forces tend primarily to motivate propulsion system
research for near-term application, necessitating cost-shared Federal R&D—such as the
PNGV—to explore the longer-term and higher-risk technologies.

TRANSPORTATION SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY STRATEGY 21


Sensing and Measurement

The wide range of information technologies now being incorporated into transportation systems
has steadily increased the value of real-time monitoring and inspection of transportation vehicles
and infrastructure. “Smart structures”—roads, bridges, runways, tunnels, and others with a
network of embedded sensors—can yield lower cost with increased safety margins by continually
providing detailed condition status and information, under normal as well as abnormal
circumstances. Similarly, “smart vehicles” depend to a large degree on sensing their
environmental and operating circumstances. The benefits of coupling sensing and computing in
this manner include safety, vehicle and infrastructure lifetime, and optimized maintenance
practices.

Monitoring of weather and air quality has direct application to transportation. These examples
make clear the value of low-cost, high-performance devices to make an extremely wide range of
physical measurements, which can then be coupled to computer chips capable of generating
warnings or adjusting operation directly. A virtually unlimited number of physical mechanisms
and sensing concepts are potentially available, but devices of special importance to transportation
will be identified and brought to fruition only to the degree that the transportation community
makes these needs known and establishes their potential economic and operational value.

Tools for Transportation Modeling, Design, and Construction

Enabling research in this area provides tools, knowledge, information, and techniques to
dramatically improve the efficiency and effectiveness of (1) assessing system requirements; (2)
planning and designing system improvements; (3) evaluating alternative operational concepts and
strategies; (4) estimating performance characteristics likely to result from innovations; and (5)
managing system operations. Specific areas of research include:

Transportation System Design Tools: Tools and methods—such as computer models and
simulations and computer-aided design, integrated across all institutions involved in the
planning process—that support system planning and design, including process re-
engineering, with emphasis on broad system engineering and integration to assure that the
resulting system makes effective use of all components in efficiently achieving a high level
of performance.

Characterizing and Modeling System Performance and Impacts: Means by which system
performance—such as mobility, safety, security, and economics—is measured, assessed,
and integrated into system design and operation processes and decisions.

Transportation and Logistic System Operations and Management: Information technology
and other tools to support operation and management of transportation and logistic

22 NSTC COMMITTEE ON TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT


Accessibility for Aging and Transportation-Disadvantaged Populations

Although the United States possesses one of the safest and most extensive passenger
transportation systems in the world, the system is unable to provide optimal mobility for selected
and growing portions of the population. These segments include the elderly, the physically
challenged, and the poor:

Today, 12 percent of the population is 65 or older. Estimates suggest that by the year 2020,
17 to 20 percent of the population will be over 65, and the fastest growing cohort will be
those least likely to have easy access to automobile transportation—those 85 and older.

Those young or old with physical disabilities have considerable mobility needs.
Transportation to medical facilities, schools, training centers, and workplaces are critical to
their health and well-being.

The transportation needs of the poor, particularly inner-city and rural populations, have
been an important priority in national transportation and human service policies. However,
recent welfare reform legislation requiring States to implement welfare-to-work programs
places renewed emphasis on the importance of mobility for those attempting to access and

retain employment.

Initiative: Accessibility for Aging and
Transportation-Disadvantaged Populations.

Goal: Create seamless regional alternative
transportation systems serving the needs of the
elderly and transportation-disadvantaged while
optimizing the existing human and capital
investment in paratransit.

Participants: DOT (FTA, FRA, FAA, FHWA,
NHTSA); HHS; private vendors; and State,
regional, and local government agencies.

Benefits: Reduced health care costs for the elderly;
reduced welfare expenditures and improved job
placement and retention for welfare recipients; and
reduced public outlays for new equipment through
improved management of existing infrastructure
and assets.

Government investment in paratransit has
provided the vast majority of the transportation
options available to these populations.
Paratransit is typically defined as flexible-
route, low- or medium-capacity vehicles serving
a predetermined group of people, such as the
elderly, for a fee. The need for these services is
growing. Demand-responsive paratransit
nationwide has doubled the number of miles
traveled over the last 10 years to nearly 600
million miles per year.

Although paratransit fills an important
transportation gap for many parts of the
population, its financial viability has been
underwritten with substantial government
funding—Federal, State, local, and private—
rather than from its own revenues. High

operating costs and poor management strategies that do not optimize the use of drivers and
vehicles have made such services costly and less than fully responsive to their riders’ mobility
needs.

TRANSPORTATION SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY STRATEGY

37


4. ELEMENTS OF THE TRANSPORTATION SCIENCE
AND TECHNOLOGY STRATEGY

( ‘areful planning is essential for managing and leveraging limited Federal research,
development, and education and training resources to meet 21st century transportation
challenges and opportunities.

The NSTC Committee on Transportation R&D was created in 1994 to ensure that the Federal
investment in transportation R&D is (1) coordinated to ensure efficient use of Federal funds
aimed at this mission; (2) focused on projects identified by users, industry, and other
stakeholders as being the most critical to achieving success in agencies’ missions; and

(3) limited to areas where it is clear that major public benefits can only be achieved through
cost-shared Federal research.

Through its initial planning efforts—with major involvement of the transportation
community—the Committee has developed the first Transportation Science and Technology
Strategy to help Congress, the White House, and Federal agency heads to establish national
transportation R&D priorities and coordinated research activities. The Strategy is based on the
results of numerous outreach events, environmental scans, and an analysis of the transportation
system’s current and future strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats. As shown in the
sections above, this Strategy presents: (1) a vision of the transportation enterprise; (2) a likely
2020 transportation future; and (3) a set of national goals and measures encompassing safety,
security, environmental quality and energy efficiency, economic productivity, and accessibility
and mobility.

The Strategy has a four-tiered approach: (1) Strategic Planning and Assessment; (2) Strategic
Partnership Initiatives; (3) Enabling Research; and (4) Transportation Education and Training.

STRATEGIC PLANNING AND ASSESSMENT

The institutionalization of a continuing transportation R&D strategic planning and assessment
process will enable policy-makers and implementers to adjust the allocation of scarce national
R&D and other resources to meet changing requirements. This ongoing process, involving the
establishment of a broad consensus among all levels of government, industry, and academia,
will (1) establish and assess transportation goals in accord with a changing external
environment; (2) identify strategic technology partnerships to support transportation goals;

(3) identify a long-term enabling research agenda to support future transportation goals; and
(4) develop measures of progress against national goals to evaluate the impact of Federal R&D
investments. Outreach to leaders in industry, State and local government, academia, the

10 NSTC COMMITTEE ON TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT


improvements have been realized in urban air
quality, additional measures for mobile sources
would be required to meet tighter proposed
standards for ozone and fine particles. Finally,
U.S.-based component and vehicle manufacturers
face growing international competition, and

must continue to make technological gains to
compete effectively in the world marketplace.

This partnership initiative responds to these
concerns through R&D leading to the
development of transportation vehicles that are
better designed, more efficient, and far less
polluting. User accessibility issues will be
considered as an integral element of the vehicle
design process. Specifically, this effort will
seek to develop the next generation of:

Highway Vehicles: This initiative will
continue the PNGV and Advanced
Technology Transit Bus (ATTB)
activities and will supplement them by
also focusing on dramatic improvements
in medium- and heavy-duty-vehicle fuel
efficiency. In 1993, the Clinton
Administration joined in a historic

partnership, the PNGV, with the Big

Initiative: Next-Generation Motor Vehicles and
Ships.

Goal: Develop internationally-competitive,
domestically-produced motor vehicles and ships that
achieve unprecedented gains in fuel efficiency,
environmental performance, and operational
performance, including user accessibility.

Participants: DOT (FTA, FRA, MARAD, NHTSA,
USCG); DOC; EPA; DARPA; DOE; State and local
authorities; National Laboratories; universities;
component suppliers; fuel producers; engine and
vehicle manufacturers; fuel cell producers; and new
energy-conversion technology manufacturers.

Benefits: Reduced economic vulnerability to
petroleum supply curtailments; reduced emissions of
greenhouse gases, ozone precursors, and fine
particulate matter; improved transit service; improved
intercity transportation service in high-density
markets with airport capacity and landside access
constraints; improved global competitiveness of U.S.
truck, bus, and locomotive manufacturers;
establishment of domestic manufacturers as leaders in
production of new energy-conversion systems;
revitalization of U.S. maritime carriers and shipyards;
accessibility of new vehicles, passenger vessels, and
ships to disabled users; and provision of surge
capacity essential to national security.

Three automakers to establish global technical leadership in the development and
production of affordable, fuel-efficient, low-emission automobiles that meet today’s safety
and performance standards. However, while automobiles account for 40 percent of the
Nation’s transportation energy demand, heavy vehicles—buses and trucks—still consume
25 percent of the total energy used for transportation. These vehicles, which tend to use
diesel fuel, are also responsible for major shares of transportation sector emissions of
nitrogen oxides and fine particles. In recent years, the FTA has worked collaboratively
with the transit industry, DARPA, and DOE to develop the first prototype ATTB. This
bus uses lightweight composite materials and an electric drivetrain to achieve a four to
five ton reduction in curb weight, low emissions, and reduced fuel consumption.

Locomotives: Applications in the U.S. for high-speed trains require a non-electric high-
acceleration locomotive. Although most high-speed technology uses electric propulsion,
virtually the only portion of the U.S. rail system currently electrified is the Northeast

40 NSTC COMMITTEE ON TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT



GPS

HHS

HUD

ISTEA

ITS

MARAD

MPO

NASA

NHTSA

NIST

NRC
NSF
NSTC

NWS

OST

OSTP

PNGV

R&D

Global Positioning System

U.S. Department of Health and Human Services

U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development
Intermodal Surface Transportation Efficiency Act of 1991
Intelligent Transportation Systems

Maritime Administration,
U.S. Department of Transportation

Metropolitan Planning Organization
National Aeronautics and Space Administration

National Highway Traffic Safety Administration,
U.S. Department of Transportation

National Institute of Standards and Technology,
U.S. Department of Commerce

National Research Council
National Science Foundation
National Science and Technology Council

National Weather Service,
U.S. Department of Commerce

Office of the Secretary of Transportation,
U.S. Department of Transportation

Office of Science and Technology Policy,
Executive Office of the President

Partnership for a New Generation of Vehicles

Research and Development

TRANSPORTATION SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY STRATEGY

49


The purpose of this report is to highlight ongoing Federal research efforts in the science and
technology (S&T) field and to identify new and promising areas where there might be gaps in
Federal support. The report is intended for internal planning purposes within the Federal
agencies and as a mechanism to convey to the S&T community the types of research and
research priorities being sponsored and considered by the Federal agencies. The Administration
is committed to a broad range of high-priority investments (including science and technology),
to deficit reduction, and to a smaller, more efficient Federal Government. These commitments
have created a very challenging budget environment—requiring difficult decisions and a well-
thought-out strategy to ensure the best return for the Nation’s taxpayers. As part of this
strategy, this document does not represent the final determinant in an overall Administration
budget decision-making process. The research programs presented in this report will have to
compete for resources against many other high-priority Federal programs. If these programs
compete successfully, they will be reflected in future Administration budgets.



¢ — Urban and Suburban Transportation.

¢ — Intercity Passenger Transportation.

¢ — Rural Transportation.
First International Congress on New Information Technologies and Operations Research
Methods in Transportation and Telecommunications (Volpe Center, August 1991).

Proceedings.

Getting to 2020: The Process of Introducing New Technology (Volpe Center, Presented at
Airshow Canada Symposium, August 1989).

TRANSPORTATION SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY STRATEGY 29


APPENDIX A

RECENT OUTREACH AND ENVIRONMENTAL
SCANS IN TRANSPORTATION

Transportation Research Board Roundtable on Research and Technology Performance
Measures (November 1996).

Transportation Research Board Roundtable on Transportation Technologies
(October 1996).

General Accounting Office Report: Surface Transportation Research Funding, Federal
Role, and Emerging Issues (September 1996).

Seminar Series on Critical Issues in Transportation for the Twenty-first Century (Volpe
Center). Proceedings.

¢ Emerging Issues in Transportation Information Infrastructure Security (May 1996).

* Current and Future Federal Applications of Tagging and Tracking Technology
(June 1996).

* Mesoscale Weather Forecasting: Technological and Institutional Challenges
(July 1996).

© Spectrum Availability and Digital Communication Links (August 1996).

* Travel and Tourism as the World's Largest Industry: Transportation Challenges and
Opportunities (September 1996).

¢ Transportation Health Effects: A Current Assessment (October 1996).

Prospectus: Initiatives to Define R&D Issues Associated with Deployment of Information
Technologies in Transportation (Prepared by Volpe Center for Director of Technology
Deployment, Office of the Secretary of Transportation [OST], in support of NSTC,
September 1996).

Symposium on Challenges and Opportunities for Global Transportation in the 21st Century
(Volpe Center, October 1995). Proceedings.

TRANSPORTATION SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY STRATEGY 27




EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

( tareful planning is essential for managing and leveraging limited Federal research,
development, and education and training resources to meet 21st century transportation
challenges and opportunities.

The National Science and Technology Council (NSTC) Committee on Transportation Research
and Development (CTRD) was created in 1994 to ensure that the Federal investment in
transportation R&D is (1) coordinated to ensure efficient use of Federal funds aimed at this
mission; (2) focused on projects identified by users, industry, and other stakeholders as being the
most critical to achieving success in agencies’ missions; and (3) limited to areas where it is clear
that major public benefits can only be achieved through cost-shared Federal research.

Through its initial planning efforts—with major involvement of the transportation and research
communities—the NSTC Committee on Transportation R&D has developed the first
Transportation Science and Technology Strategy to help Congress, the White House, and Federal
agency heads to establish national transportation R&D priorities and coordinated research
activities. The Strategy is based on the results of numerous outreach events, environmental
scans, and an analysis of the transportation system’s current and future strengths, weaknesses,
opportunities, and threats. This Strategy presents:

e A vision of the transportation enterprise.

e A likely transportation future for the year 2020.

e = Aset of national goals and measures encompassing safety, security, environmental quality
and energy efficiency, economic productivity, and accessibility and mobility.

The Strategy has a four-tiered approach:
e@ — Strategic Planning and Assessment
© — Strategic Partnership Initiatives

e Enabling Research

@ = Transportation Education and Training

TRANSPORTATION SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY STRATEGY iii


activities focused on clarifying all aspects of major transportation-related environmental issues.
The recently proposed changes of U.S. standards for ambient concentrations of ozone and fine
particulate matter, for example, are likely to expand the geographic scope of non-attainment.
This topic also has a large international component. International agreements to limit emissions
of carbon dioxide and other gases could have profound consequences for domestic transportation.

This partnership initiative will develop data and analytical models to provide a comprehensive
environmental knowledge base to support decisions, policy formulation, and transportation
investments in all modes. It will expand and build upon the work conducted under the Travel
Model Improvement Program (TMIP), an interagency effort aimed at developing a new
generation of travel demand models. The TMIP includes both research to enhance current
modeling practice and a longer-term initiative to develop a new approach using the latest
advances in computing technology (known as the TRansportation ANalysis SIMulation System,
or TRANSIMS). This new approach uses microsimulation to depict travel patterns and couple
them with a modal emissions model, allowing MPOs and other agencies to fully analyze the
implications of various transportation investments on both travel characteristics and emissions.

Another need that this initiative will address is for an increased understanding of the relationship
between transportation systems and land use decisions. This effort will support the development
of analytical tools that MPOs and other transportation decision-makers can use to assess the
implications of transportation projects for overall sustainability, including land use, economic
development, and accessibility.

Such evolved planning tools will enable decision-makers to assess the impacts of different kinds
of transportation improvements, coupled with appropriate zoning and supportive use of
telecommunications and data links, to configure transportation systems that simultaneously meet
metropolitan mobility needs and promote urban environmental quality and sustainable long-term
growth.

NEXT-GENERATION VEHICLES
Next-Generation Motor Vehicles and Ships

There are four prominent national concerns which, together, will require significant advances in
transportation vehicle technology. First, the U.S. relies on petroleum to provide more than 95
percent of the energy required for transportation, and it has been estimated by some researchers
that even a brief supply curtailment (i.e., two years) could drain $500 billion from the economy.
Second, although the U.S. has advocated the adoption of binding international commitments to
stabilize the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases, continued growth of U.S.
transportation sector emissions is projected under current policies. Third, while recent

TRANSPORTATION SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY STRATEGY 39


and materials, such as embedded fiber optics for visual inspection or strain interferometry,
shape-memory alloys, and ultrasonic or magnetic corrosion detection.

Environmental Engineering and Technologies: This area promotes the use of recyclable
materials and environmentally benign technologies to prevent or mitigate the adverse
environmental impacts of infrastructure construction and operation. These materials and
technologies include green barriers to shield noise and improve air quality; paint and spray
recovery systems; non-toxic and recyclable bridge and road coatings, asphalt mixes, and
additives; geotextiles for slope stabilization and surface-life extension; and use of recycled
tires, plastics, and pavements in infrastructure applications.

Environmental Sustainability of Transportation Systems

Transportation systems are designed to support economic development and a variety of other
societal goals. Thus, the environmental impacts of transportation systems are a subset of the
broader impacts of the land uses and other
ae —_———, systems served by transportation. Within this
Initiative: Environmental Sustainability of context, transportation systems have been
Transportation Systems. recognized as having major impacts on
Goal: Investigate the technological and behavioral environmental sustainability. The
implications of alternative transportation transportation sector accounts for about one-
infrastructures and development patterns to determine third of domestic contributions to greenhouse
those that minimize impacts on long-term gas emissions and is the fastest growing
environmental sustainability. contributor both domestically and
Participants: DOT; EPA; DOE; HHS; HUD; the internationally. Transportation sector impacts
private sector; academia; non-governmental upon the health of soils and aquatic resources,
organizations; and State and local government as well as habitat disruption, are often
agencies. irreversible, with unknown long-term

ecological consequences. The land use

Benefits: Improved ability to understand the linkages decisions made by governments and
between transportation and the environment, and how

more sustainable transportation systems benefit individuals are long-lasting and toa large
society. extent determined by the availability of

ana ~ inexpensive transportation choices.

These issues are not easy to address and create substantial challenges for the research community.
Finding solutions that enhance the sustainability of transportation systems requires applications of
technology, as well as an understanding of the behavioral and social sciences. Research is needed
to determine the technology necessary to design transportation systems and development patterns
that provide access to economic, social, and recreational opportunities such that permanent (i.e.,
unsustainable) environmental degradation is minimized or avoided.

TRANSPORTATION SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY STRATEGY 45


e@ Accessibility for Aging and Transportation-Disadvantaged Populations

e@ Local Environmental Assessment Systems

Next-Generation Vehicles

@ Next-Generation Motor Vehicles and Ships

e = Aviation Safety Research Alliance

Transportation Physical Infrastructure

e@ =Total Terminal Security

@ Monitoring, Maintenance, and Rapid Renewal of the Physical Infrastructure

e@ Environmental Sustainability of Transportation Systems

ENABLING RESEARCH

Enabling research supports the long-term evolution of the future transportation system. As stated
in the General Accounting Office report, Surface Transportation Research Funding, Federal
Role, and Emerging Issues, as well as by numerous transportation officials, “the current mix of
research projects gives too little emphasis to basic, long-term, high-risk surface transportation
research.” This Strategy identifies six research areas that support long-term national
transportation goals whose benefits are too widely spread for any one company to recover its
investment, whose cost or risk is too great for one company to bear, and whose benefits are too
far in the future to meet private investment criteria:

@ Human Performance and Behavior

e Advanced Materials

@ Computer, Information, and Communication Systems

e Energy and Environment

e@ Sensing and Measurement

@ Tools for Transportation Modeling, Design, and Construction

TRANSPORTATION SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY STRATEGY V


NATIONAL SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY COUNCIL

TRANSPORTATION SCIENCE AND
TECHNOLOGY STRATEGY

Committee on Transportation Research and Development
Intermodal Transportation Science and Technology Strategy Team

September 1997


associated with human performance and behavioral characteristics; and (3) understanding of the
many factors affecting the interaction between humans and automated systems.

Human error or inadequacy in vehicle or system operation, maintenance, or inspection is a
leading factor contributing to safety and security problems. This arises in part because basic
system design, operational procedures, or training programs do not fully take into account the
characteristics likely among the people responsible for operating the system. Research in the
behavioral sciences provides a critical foundation for building the needed transportation
knowledge base to avoid such flaws.

Better understanding of human behavior is particularly needed in system control and operations,
including the effects of fatigue, work-sleep cycles, working environment, boredom, and drug and
alcohol use; response to emergency situations; testing of readiness to perform duties; and
interactions among co-workers. In addition to affecting safety, problems associated with these
topics cause operational inefficiencies that lower overall productivity. A broadly based research
program will yield behavioral science results and methodologies for all modes of transportation,
enabling more efficient use of scarce resources.

Advanced Materials

Technical advances in the defense and consumer sectors have produced a rich inventory of
materials and associated structural concepts, tools, and techniques for their use. Enabling
research in this area supports applications to transportation infrastructure, including the
demonstration of effectiveness and long-term viability and, often, the reduction of costs to a
competitive level. Examples include high-performance concrete, new steel alloys, innovative
composite materials and adhesives, imaginative structural concepts, computer-aided design
techniques, automated construction and maintenance tools, and new approaches to corrosion
protection and control.

Similarly, transportation safety and energy use are greatly influenced by the materials from which
aircraft, ships, and surface vehicles are manufactured. For example, the PNGV—seeking a three-
fold increase in automobile fuel economy—is exploring the use of high-performance steel,
aluminum, magnesium, and glass- and carbon-fiber composites for body structures. Each
potential application of an innovative material poses new challenges in terms of material cost,
manufacturing processes, joining and adhesives, characterization of failure mechanisms,
environmental concerns, and cost compatibility with transportation uses.

Computer, Information, and Communication Systems

Worldwide, transportation is being transformed by the growing overlay of an information
infrastructure on the existing physical infrastructure, yielding a system in which information
technologies and ready access to many types of information are integrated into virtually all

20 NSTC COMMITTEE ON TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT


ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY AND ENERGY EFFICIENCY

Environmental and energy concerns affect transportation system development worldwide.
Everywhere, transportation is becoming the focus of concerns about fossil fuel consumption,
global warming, and air quality. For instance, current scenarios estimate that the world
demand for petroleum, by far the primary fuel source for transportation, could double by 2020
to as much as 150 million barrels per day. Critical fuel supplies to a nation could be disrupted
over the short or long term by local conflicts, natural disasters, economic downturns, or
conscious political decisions.

As cities grow and the demand for transportation increases, the resulting growth in
transportation activity places nearly unsustainable pressure on land use, traffic congestion, and
air and water quality. The emissions caused by petroleum consumption contribute to both
human health problems and global climate change. Cars, trucks, and other vehicles are major
sources of carbon monoxide and of volatile organic compounds and nitrogen oxides—
precursors of ozone and acid rain. Highways have been blamed for erosive and contaminated
runoff and ruination of wetlands. At the same time, communities have formed coalitions that
vigorously protest the risks of hazardous materials transport, such as oil spills, and the adverse
impacts of transportation noise.

Combined with the dramatic forecasts for growth in world population and transportation
demand, these issues have given environmental and energy concerns prominence on the
national agenda.

One potential measure of success could be the number of major areas not now attaining
legislatively-mandated air quality standards that reach these air quality goals by 2020.

ECONOMIC GROWTH AND PRODUCTIVITY

Trade and tourism are areas of great significance to the world’s economy. Tourism alone may
be the single biggest economic activity in the world today, accounting for over one-tenth of the
total global gross product. And, as population and disposable income both grow, a dramatic
increase in international passenger travel can be anticipated. In particular, this trend will
stimulate growth in air travel, and thus the need for user-preferred routes and schedules, new
and expanded airport facilities, and associated transportation connections throughout the world.

Such growth also will stimulate the demand for finished goods, which in turn will expand
growth in freight transportation services worldwide. Oceanborne trade is expected to increase
at an average rate of 4.5 percent between 1994 and 2005. Just-in-time goods movement—with
the goal of minimum inventories—is increasing both the number of trips made by parts
suppliers and final assemblers’ deliveries to purchasers, creating the need for more efficient

8 NSTC COMMITTEE ON TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT


About the National Science and Technology Council

President Clinton established the National Science and Technology Council (NSTC) by Executive Order
on November 23, 1993. This cabinet-level council is the principal means for the President to coordinate
science, space, and technology policies across the Federal Government. NSTC acts as a “virtual” agency
for science and technology to coordinate the diverse parts of the Federal research and development
enterprise. The NSTC is chaired by the President. Membership consists of the Vice President, Assistant
to the President for Science and Technology, Cabinet Secretaries and Agency Heads with significant
science and technology responsibilities, and other White House officials.

An important objective of the NSTC is the establishment of clear national goals for Federal science and
technology investments in areas ranging from information technologies and health research, to
improving transportation systems and strengthening fundamental research. The Council prepares
research and development strategies that are coordinated across Federal agencies to form an investment
package that is aimed at accomplishing multiple national goals.

To obtain additional information regarding the NSTC, contact the NSTC Executive Secretariat at
202-456-6102.

About the Office of Science and Technology Policy

The Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) was established by the National Science and
Technology Policy, Organization and Priorities Act of 1976. OSTP’s responsibilities include advising
the President in policy formulation and budget development on all questions in which science and
technology are important elements; articulating the President’s science and technology policies and
programs; and fostering strong partnerships among Federal, State, and local governments, and the
scientific communities in industry and academe.

To obtain additional information regarding the OSTP, contact the OSTP Administrative Office at
202-395-7347.



travel, the transportation system’s capacity has not kept pace. DOT estimates that to just match
the growth in VMT, the U.S. transportation system would need to build approximately 35
percent more highway capacity. Doing so for 50 of our most congested metropolitan areas—for
which the total cost of congestion is $43 billion a year—would cost about $150 billion. At the
same time, all levels of government currently invest only about $40 billion in the entire
transportation infrastructure each year.

Congestion also has an impact on
commercial motor vehicle travel,
particularly when coupled with the

Goal: Deploy an intelligent transportation infrastructure administrative burden associated with
across the United States within the next decade. regulatory compliance. Motor carriers are
legally required to obtain numerous and

Initiative: National Intelligent Transportation
Infrastructure.

| Participants: DOT (ITS Joint Program Office, FHWA,

FTA, FRA); State DOTs; MPOs; emergency response information-intensive credentials and
and law enforcement agencies; railroads; and private clearances for interstate operations. On the
industry. average, interstate carriers may deal with

five or six public agencies within each of
the States in which they operate.
Regulatory compliance not only creates

Benefits: Reduction in travel times in metropolitan
areas; faster life-saving emergency response and fewer
congestion-related traffic incidents; more efficient public

services; reduced petroleum consumption; improved air administrative inefficiencies and
quality; increased infrastructure capacity without more redundancies, but it increases labor costs.
costly new construction; and enhanced information Total compliance costs for the industry are

system security. |
j

estimated to be as high as $5 billion a year.
The costs to the public sector are even
greater, due to the volume of paperwork associated with motor carrier inspections, issuance of
credentials, and tax collection.

Rural transportation poses yet another set of challenges. The transportation needs of rural areas
differ significantly from those of cities. Although less than 40 percent of annual VMT are on
rural roads, these roads account for 60 percent of all traffic fatalities because of higher speeds
and relatively slow emergency response. Many rural residents are isolated, without a car or
access to public transportation. Thirty-eight percent of rural residents live in areas without any
transit services; another 28 percent live where the level of service is negligible. Moreover,
visitors to rural tourist areas have limited access to directions and to other basic travel
information.

Intelligent transportation systems, or ITS, offer promising solutions that respond to these
pressing challenges in urban, commercial, and rural surface transportation. These systems are
diverse and versatile, combining telecommunications, computer, sensing, and electronics
technologies to provide real-time information to traffic managers and travelers on traffic,
weather, navigation, and vehicle diagnostics—in much the same way that the air traffic control
system does for air traffic—to achieve greater system efficiency, safety, and convenience.

32 NSTC COMMITTEE ON TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT


Local Environmental Assessment Systems

Goal: Further develop data, validated models, and a comprehensive knowledge base to
support analysis of transportation-related environmental impacts and alternative strategies,
including use of “virtual travel,” by all levels of government and the private sector.

Participants: DOT, Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), and other responsible
Federal agencies; State and local environmental authorities; National Laboratories; the
private sector; and academia.

Benefits: Improved ability of government agencies to respond strategically to
environmental objectives and to characterize the transportation implications of those
objectives.

Next-Generation Vehicles

Next-Generation Motor Vehicles and Ships

Goal: Develop internationally-competitive, domestically-produced motor vehicles and ships
that achieve unprecedented gains in fuel efficiency, environmental performance, and
operational performance, including user accessibility.

Participants: DOT (FTA, FRA, MARAD, NHTSA, USCG); DOC; EPA; Defense
Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA); Department of Energy (DOE); State and
local authorities; National Laboratories; universities; component suppliers; fuel producers;
engine and vehicle manufacturers; fuel cell producers; and new energy-conversion
technology manufacturers.

Benefits: Reduced economic vulnerability to petroleum supply curtailments; reduced
emissions of greenhouse gases, ozone precursors, and fine particulate matter; improved
transit service; improved intercity transportation service in high-density markets with
airport capacity and landside access constraints; improved global competitiveness of U.S.
truck, bus, and locomotive manufacturers; establishment of domestic manufacturers as
leaders in production of new energy-conversion systems; revitalization of U.S. maritime
carriers and shipyards; accessibility of new vehicles, passenger vessels, and ships to
disabled users; and provision of surge capacity essential to national security.

Aviation Safety Research Alliance

Goal: Provide the technology to reduce the fatal aviation accident rate by a factor of five in
10 years and a factor of 10 in 20 years.

16

NSTC COMMITTEE ON TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT


Transportation Degree Programs: International and Multidisciplinary

This initiative will build upon existing DOT programs to foster the development of transportation
degree programs based on multidisciplinary curricula. In the face of increasing globalization of
transportation, the Nation’s institutions of higher learning must prepare their graduates to deal
with transportation as a complex issue of systems with global dimensions. This program will
assist universities in their development of multidisciplinary programs focused on identifying and
resolving transportation issues in an increasingly international arena.

Mid-Career Transportation Training

Dramatic changes in technology and organizational transformations have left many transportation
professionals and workers unprepared. Where technologies and training once changed only every
20 years, today the half-life of rapidly advancing technologies may be anywhere between three
and five years. Such rapid development requires that current workers and professionals be
educated in the latest technological advances in ITS, diagnostics, materials, command/control
systems, and related applications. Likewise, transportation agency managers require the
management tools necessary to meet their new responsibilities and evolving missions. This
initiative will ensure that the current generation of transportation workers and professionals has
the capacity to apply the most innovative technologies and techniques.

TRANSPORTATION SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY STRATEGY 25


research community, and other stakeholders has allowed the Federal Government to gather
facts and analyze trends that give an objective picture of where we stand in the transportation
“world,” and of the external and internal pressures and factors likely to affect our future.

STRATEGIC PLANNING
APPROACH

NATIONAL
GOALS

Federal stewardship of the overall transportation enterprise can encourage decisions and
actions by all parties that contribute to seamless, efficient, and effective transportation, while
balancing transportation needs against other national goals. Each year more and more
stakeholders are involved in transportation decision-making, and the technical realities and
uncertainties in each issue become more complex. State and local agencies must also
recognize national goals—embodied in legislation such as the Intermodal Surface
Transportation Efficiency Act of 1991 (ISTEA), the Americans With Disabilities Act of 1990
(ADA), and the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990 (CAAA)—in their transportation planning
and decision-making. Information and tools for use in planning, assessing, and meeting these
challenges often are difficult to obtain, are often unreliable, or simply do not exist. Support for
increased planning and assessment initiatives at and among the Federal, regional, State, and
local levels can be reinforced by working with individuals and agencies who are transportation
stakeholders to expand their awareness of the importance of strategic planning and system
assessment to their own activities, and to increase their own involvement in planning and
assessment efforts.

TRANSPORTATION SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY STRATEGY 11


TABLE OF CONTENTS

Executive Summary ....... 00sec eee c eee eee eee een ee teen enna iii
BAA C3 (0) | EY 1
2. Transportation in the Year 2020 .......- se eee e eee ener e ee eee ees 2
3. Strategic Goals and Measures ...... 6. see eee e cence eee ee eee enee 6

4. Elements of the Transportation Science and
Technology Strategy... 6.0 cece cect n eee n nnn eee eee e ene enes 10

5. Conclusions ....... 0.6 c eee e eee ee cee eee eee eee ene n eee n ene 26

Exhibit A: Transportation Partnership Initiatives
and National Goals... 2.6... c eee c eee eee eee een eens 13

Exhibit B: Transportation System Elements
and Enabling Research ........ 0606s e cece ence en eee eee eens 19

Appendix A: Recent Outreach and Environmental
Scans in Transportation ....... 0... e eee eee ee eee eee eee ete 27

Appendix B: Strategic Partnership Initiatives ...........6 sees ener eee 30

Appendix C: Acronyms and Abbreviations ..........6++seseeeeeee eee 48



Sustainable freight movement: Efforts to reduce traffic congestion and emissions in urban
areas have often taken the form of restrictions on freight movement in favor of facilitating
personal (primarily single-occupant-vehicle) travel. Additional research is needed on the
long-term regional economic and environmental impacts of current freight policies and
opportunities provided by new information technologies, intermodal facilities, and market-
based measures for improving the energy efficiency of freight movement in urbanized
areas.

Overall, this partnership initiative will address the sustainability of building and operating the
interrelated and complex systems of transportation and development that drive, and are driven by,
economic activities. The focus will be on behavioral sciences and interactions with technology in
determining how people react to different systems to achieve sustainability.

TRANSPORTATION SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY STRATEGY 47


In partnership with State and local agencies and industry, this partnership initiative will support
the creation of a national intelligent transportation infrastructure—a transportation
communications and information backbone—that will help to ensure that the various ITS
strategies being deployed across the country are integrated, interoperable, intermodal, and secure.
This national infrastructure comprises three broad systems:

Metropolitan ITS Infrastructure: This infrastructure will integrate advanced traffic
management, traveler information, and public transportation systems to meet the needs of
metropolitan areas.

Commercial Vehicle Information Systems and Networks: This effort will integrate data,
technology, and communications systems to make safety regulation of commercial
vehicles faster and more effective, and to make compliance transactions more efficient for
both motor carriers and regulators.

Rural ITS Infrastructure: This infrastructure will upgrade communications and
information technologies in rural communities and link rural areas to the metropolitan
information infrastructure.

Through this initiative, Federal agencies will work with industry, and State and local partners to
deploy various elements of this overall infrastructure. The Federal role will include providing
incentives for deployment, supporting public-private model deployments and technology
demonstrations, developing innovative financing and acquisition processes, promoting the
acceptance of national standards, providing training and technical assistance, and pursuing
focused research and development. A major component of this effort will address the security
concerns arising from opening new avenues of communication among transportation agencies,
emergency services, other agencies, and the traveling public. Together with the increasing
dependence on information and communication technologies, this trend has heightened
transportation systems’ vulnerability to information security problems.

Next-Generation Global Air Transportation

Recent government-industry partnerships have developed a number of advanced technologies for
air traffic management, as well as consensus on operational improvements required for
enhancing the safety, flexibility, and efficiency of air traffic management operations. In
particular, the “free flight” concept, developed in collaboration with U.S. airspace users,
envisions a system wherein aircraft operators have wide latitude for selecting flight paths,
speeds, and altitudes that best satisfy their operational requirements; the air traffic management
system imposes restrictions only to ensure that aircraft are separated and that other essential
safety requirements are met.

TRANSPORTATION SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY STRATEGY 33


basis for the next-generation system. This partnership initiative is the essential next step in air

traffic management system development.

Enhanced Transportation Weather Services

Initiative: Enhanced Transportation Weather
Services.

Goal: Improve transportation safety and efficiency
by demonstrating the data-integration capabilities
necessary to provide short-term, very small-scale
weather forecasts.

Participants: DOT (FAA, ITS Joint Program
Office, USCG, FHWA, FRA); NWS; private
vendors; and State and local agencies.

Benefits: In aviation, improved capabilities for
flight planning and severe weather avoidance,
greater system throughput, reduced fuel
consumption, and lower deicing costs for airports;
for ocean shippers, financial savings due to
forecasts that allow planning for the most efficient
routes; and in surface transportation, reduced
highway accidents and related injuries, lower costs
for trucking firms, and lower snow- and ice-control
costs for State and local highway departments.

For the transportation system, the safety,
mobility, and economic impacts of adverse
weather conditions are considerable. According
to a report of the Office of Science and
Technology Policy (OSTP), each year weather
causes or contributes to 6,000 fatalities on U.S.
highways and 800 aviation-accident-related
deaths. The OSTP estimates that more than half
of all flight delays are attributable to weather,
and that uncertainties in predicting flight-level
winds add a quarter billion dollars annually to
the Nation’s aviation fuel bill. Moreover, the
FHWA states that between 25 and 35 percent of
all intercity road accidents occur during adverse
weather, with the risk of accidents increasing
during bad weather by a factor of from two to
five.

Advances in weather technologies and
meteorology during the past decade offer the
promise of mitigating many of the impacts of

severe weather on transportation. Among these are new observation systems, such as Doppler
radars and Automated Surface Observing Systems; advances in computing speed and capacity;
and greater fundamental knowledge of weather systems. In fact, weather observation and
information-processing capabilities have expanded so greatly that it is now feasible to combine
weather data from many sources into massive databases and manipulate the data with numerical
models to produce reliable short-term weather forecasts for individual roads, traffic arteries,
bridges, airport runways, air corridors, ports, and waterways. However, the full potential of such
small-scale forecasting will not be realized without further improvements in weather data
integration and dissemination.

The benefits of such improvements are already being demonstrated. For example, at Chicago’s
O’Hare International Airport, the National Center for Atmospheric Research, as part of an FAA
initiative, has combined radar and sensor data to provide snowfall predictions for up to 30
minutes for one-square-kilometer areas of the airport complex. The data integration is
accomplished using a high-performance computer workstation. Snowfall forecasts are displayed

TRANSPORTATION SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY STRATEGY 35


STRATEGIC PLANNING AND ASSESSMENT

The institutionalization of a continuing transportation R&D strategic planning and assessment
process will enable policy-makers and implementers to adjust the allocation of scarce national
R&D and other resources to meet changing requirements. This ongoing process, involving the
establishment of a broad consensus among all levels of government, industry, and academia, will:

e@ — Establish and assess transportation goals in accord with a changing external environment.
@ = Identify strategic technology partnerships to support transportation goals.
e@ = Identify a long-term enabling research agenda to support future transportation goals.

@ Develop meaningful measures of the impact of national R&D investment on meeting future
transportation goals.

STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIP INITIATIVES

This Strategy, based on broad public and private sector input, identifies twelve transportation
partnership initiatives that address recognized national needs, have a technology focus, and, if
successful, could rely on existing market forces and the private sector for widespread
implementation. In all cases, the initiatives would benefit the Nation as a whole and could not
proceed in a timely fashion without some cost-shared Federal support of the overall efforts. The
initiatives are intended to incorporate and guide ongoing activities that are relevant to their goals.
Any new Federal components of the initiatives will be developed under the overall funding limits
and constraints already established. In that context, the following proposed initiatives fall into
three overlapping and interrelated categories: (1) transportation information infrastructure;

(2) next-generation vehicles; and (3) transportation physical infrastructure:

Transportation Information Infrastructure

@ = Smart Vehicles and Operators

@ = National Intelligent Transportation Infrastructure
@ Next-Generation Global Air Transportation

e@ Enhanced Transportation Weather Services

e@ Enhanced Goods and Freight Movement at Domestic and International Gateways

iv NSTC COMMITTEE ON TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT