### CHAPTER 10. NATIONAL IMPACTS ANALYSIS

TABLE OF CONTENTS

10.1 INTRODUCTION

............................................................................................................. 10-1 10.2 BASE-CASE AND STANDARDS-CASE FORECASTED EFFICIENCY DISTRIBUTIONS, BALLAST STOCKS, AND AVERAGE EFFICIENCY

.................. 10-1 10.2.1 Base and Standards Case E fficiency Distributions

............................................ 10-2 10.2.2 Installed Ballast Stock

..................................................................................... 10-13 10.2.3 Average Ballast Efficien cy in the Stock

.......................................................... 10-16 10.3 NATIONAL ENERGY SAVINGS

................................................................................. 10-27 10.3.1 National Energy Savings Definition

................................................................ 10-27 10.3.2 National Energy Savings Inputs

...................................................................... 10-28 10.3.2.1 Unit Energy Consumption (UEC)

..................................................... 10-28 10.3.2.2 Ballast Stock

..................................................................................... 10-28 10.3.2.3 Site-to-Source Conversion Factors

................................................... 10-28 10.3.2.4 Interactions with Heating, Ve ntilation, and Air-Conditioning (HVAC) Systems

.............................................................................. 10-29 10.3.2.5 Rebound Rate

.................................................................................... 10-29 10.4 NET PRESENT VALUE

................................................................................................ 10-30 10.4.1 Net Present Value Definition

........................................................................... 10-30 10.4.2 Net Present Value Inputs

................................................................................. 10-31 10.4.2.1 Total Annual Installed Cost Increases

.............................................. 10-31 10.4.2.2 Total Annual Operating Cost Savings

.............................................. 10-31 10.4.2.3 Discount Factor

................................................................................. 10-32 10.5 NATIONAL ENERGY SAVINGS AND NET PRESENT VALUE RESULTS

........... 10-32 10.5.1 National Energy Savings and Net Present Value Input Summary

.................. 10-32 10.5.2 National Energy Savings Results

.................................................................... 10-33 10.5.3 Net Present Value Analysis

............................................................................. 10-35 10.5.4 Net Present Value Results

............................................................................... 10-41

LIST OF TABLES

Table 10.2.1. Ballasts Operating 4- Foot Medium Bipin (MBP) Lamps (Residential), Base Case and Standards Case Efficiency Dist ributions (Existing Technologies, Shift Scenario)

...................................................................................................................... .. 10-3 Table 10.2.2. Ballasts Operating 4-Foot MBP Lamps (Residential) , Base Case and Standards Case Efficiency Distributi ons (Existing Technologies, Roll-Up Scenario)

...................................................................................................................... .. 10-4 Table 10.2.3. Ballasts Operating 4-Foot MBP Lamps (Residential) , Base Case and Standards Case Efficiency Distributions (E merging Technologies, Shift Scenario)

..... 10-4 Table 10.2.4. Ballasts Operating 4-Foot MBP Lamps (Residential) , Base Case and Standards Case Efficiency Distributi ons (Emerging Technologies, Roll-Up Scenario)

...................................................................................................................... .. 10-5

10-i

### Table 10.2.5. Ballasts Operating 4-Foot MBP Lamps (Commercial) , Base Case and Standards Case Efficiency Distributions (E xisting Technologies, Shift Scenario)

....... 10-5 Table 10.2.6. Ballasts Operating 4-Foot MBP Lamps (Commercial) , Base Case and Standards Case Efficiency Distributi ons (Existing Technologies, Roll-Up Scenario)

...................................................................................................................... .. 10-6 Table 10.2.7. Ballasts Operating 4-Foot MBP Lamps (Commercial) , Base Case and Standards Case Efficiency Distributions (E merging Technologies, Shift Scenario)

..... 10-6 Table 10.2.8. Ballasts Operating 4-Foot MBP Lamps (Commercial) , Base Case and Standards Case Efficiency Distributi ons (Emerging Technologies, Roll-Up Scenario)

...................................................................................................................... .. 10-7 Table 10.2.9. Ballasts Operating 8-Foot Single Pin (Slimline) Lamps, Base Case and Standards Case Efficiency Distributions (E xisting Technologies, Shift Scenario)

....... 10-7 Table 10.2.10. Ballasts Operating 8-Foot Slimline Lamps, Base Case and Standards Case Efficiency Distributions (Existing T echnologies, Roll-Up Scenario)

........................... 10-8 Table 10.2.11. Ballasts Operating 8-Foot Slimline Lamps. Base Case and Standards Case Efficiency Distributions (Emerging Technologies, Shift Scenario)

.............................. 10-8 Table 10.2.12. Ballasts Operating 8-Foot Slimline Lamps, Base Case and Standards Case Efficiency Distributions (Emerging T echnologies, Roll-Up Scenario)

......................... 10-9 Table 10.2.13. Ballasts Operating 8-Foot Recessed Double Cont act (RDC) High Output (HO) Lamps, Base Case a nd Standards Case Efficiency Distributions (Existing Technologies, Shift Scenario)

........................................................................................ 10-9 Table 10.2.14. Ballasts Operating 8-Foot RDC HO Lamps, Base Case and Standards Case Efficiency Distributions (Existin g Technologies, Roll-Up Scenario)

................. 10-10 Table 10.2.15. Ballasts Operating 8-Foot RDC HO Lamps, Base Case and Standards Case Efficiency Distributions (Emergin g Technologies, Shift Scenario)

................... 10-10 Table 10.2.16. Ballasts Operating 8-Foot RDC HO Lamps, Base Case and Standards Case Efficiency Distributions (Emerging Technologies, Roll-Up Scenario)

.............. 10-11 Table 10.2.17. Ballasts Operating 4-Foot T5 Mini ature Bipin (MiniBP) Standard Output (SO) and HO Lamps, Base Case and Sta ndards Case Efficiency Distributions (Existing Technologies, Shift Scenario)

...................................................................... 10-11 Table 10.2.18. Ballasts Operating 4-Foot T5 Mi niBP SO and HO Lamps, Base Case and Standards Case Efficiency Distributi ons (Existing Technologies, Roll-Up Scenario)

...................................................................................................................... 10-12 Table 10.2.19. Ballasts Operating 4-Foot T5 Mi niBP SO and HO Lamps, Base Case and Standards Case Efficiency Distributions (E merging Technologies, Shift Scenario)

... 10-12 Table 10.2.20. Ballasts Operating 4-Foot T5 Mi niBP SO and HO Lamps, Base Case and Standards Case Efficiency Distributi ons (Emerging Technologies, Roll-Up Scenario)

...................................................................................................................... 10-13 Table 10.3.1 National Energy Saving Inputs

.......................................................................... 10-28 Table 10.3.2 Site-to-Source Conversion Factors

.................................................................... 10-29 Table 10.4.1 Net Present Value Inputs

................................................................................... 10-31 Table 10.5.1. National Energy Saving a nd Net Present Value Inputs

..................................... 10-33 Table 10.5.2. Cumulative National Energy Saving s for Ballasts under the Existing, Shift Scenario (2014-2044)

................................................................................................... 10-34 Table 10.5.3. Cumulative National Energy Sa vings for Ballasts under the Emerging, Roll-Up Scenario (2014-2044)

.................................................................................... 10-35

10-ii

### Table 10.5.4. Cumulative NPV Results for Balla sts Under the Existing Technologies, Shift Scenario (2014-2044)

.......................................................................................... 10-42 Table 10.5.5. Cumulative NPV Results for Balla sts Under the Emerging Technologies, Roll-Up Scenario (2014-2044)

.................................................................................... 10-42

LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 10.2.1. 4-Foot MBP (Residential) In stalled Ballast Stock (CSL 3)

............................. 10-14 Figure 10.2.2. 4-Foot MBP (Commercial) In stalled Ballast Stock (CSL 3)

............................ 10-14 Figure 10.2.3. 8-Foot Slimline Installe d Ballast Stock (CSL 3)

.............................................. 10-15 Figure 10.2.4. 8-Foot RDC HO Installe d Ballast Stock (CSL 3)

............................................ 10-15 Figure 10.2.5. 4-Foot T5 MiniBP SO and HO Installed Ballast Stock (CSL 3)

...................... 10-16 Figure 10.2.6. Average Efficiency of Stoc k, Ballasts Operating 4-Foot MBP Lamps (Residential, Existing Technologies, Shift Scenario)*

................................................ 10-17 Figure 10.2.7. Average Efficiency of Stoc k, Ballasts Operating 4-Foot MBP Lamps

Figure 10.2.8. Average Efficiency of Stoc k, Ballasts Operating 4-Foot MBP Lamps

Figure 10.2.9. Average Efficiency of Stoc k, Ballasts Operating 4-Foot MBP Lamps

Figure 10.2.10. Average Efficiency of Stoc k, Ballasts Operating 4-Foot MBP Lamps

Figure 10.2.11. Average Efficiency of Stoc k, Ballasts Operating 4-Foot MBP Lamps

Figure 10.2.12. Average Efficiency of Stoc k, Ballasts Operating 4-Foot MBP Lamps

Figure 10.2.13. Average Efficiency of Stoc k, Ballasts Operating 4-Foot MBP Lamps

Figure 10.2.14. Average Efficiency of Stock, Ballasts Operating 8-Foot Slimline Lamps

Figure 10.2.15. Average Efficiency of Stock, Ballasts Operating 8-Foot Slimline Lamps

Figure 10.2.16. Average Efficiency of Stock, Ballasts Operating 8-Foot Slimline Lamps

Figure 10.2.17. Average Efficiency of Stock, Ballasts Operating 8-Foot Slimline Lamps

Figure 10.2.18. Average Efficiency of Stock, Ballasts Operating 8-Foot RDC HO Lamps

Figure 10.2.19. Average Efficiency of Stock, Ballasts Operating 8-Foot RDC HO Lamps

Figure 10.2.20. Average Efficiency of Stock, Ballasts Operating 8-Foot RDC HO Lamps

Figure 10.2.21. Average Efficiency of Stock, Ballasts Operating 8-Foot RDC HO Lamps

Figure 10.2.22. Average Efficiency of Stock, Ba llasts Operating 4-Foot T5 MiniBP SO (Residential, Existing Technolog ies, Roll-Up Scenario)*

........................................... 10-17

(Residential, Emerging Technologies, Roll-Up Scenario)*

........................................ 10-18

(Residential, Emerging Technologies, Shift Scenario)*

.............................................. 10-18

(Commercial, Existing Technologies, Shift Scenario)*

.............................................. 10-19

(Commercial, Existing Technolog ies, Roll-Up Scenario)

........................................... 10-19

(Commercial, Emerging Technolog ies, Roll-Up Scenario)

......................................... 10-20

(Commercial, Emerging Technol ogies, Shift Scenario)*

............................................ 10-20

(Existing Technologies, Shift Scenario)*

.................................................................... 10-21

(Existing Technologies, Roll-Up Scenario)*

............................................................... 10-21

(Emerging Technologies, Roll-Up Scenario)*

............................................................ 10-22

(Emerging Technologies, Shift Scenario)*

.................................................................. 10-22

(Existing Technologies, Shift Scenario)*

.................................................................... 10-23

(Existing Technologies, Roll-Up Scenario)*

............................................................... 10-23

(Emerging Technologies, Roll-Up Scenario)*

............................................................ 10-24

(Emerging Technologies, Shift Scenario)*

.................................................................. 10-24

and HO Lamps (Existing Technolog ies, Shift Scenario)*

........................................... 10-25

10-iii

### Figure 10.2.23. Average Efficiency of Stock, Ba llasts Operating 4-Foot T5 MiniBP SO and HO Lamps (Existing Technologies, Roll-Up Scenario)*

..................................... 10-25 Figure 10.2.24. Average Efficiency of Stock, Ba llasts Operating 4-Foot T5 MiniBP SO and HO Lamps (Emerging Technologies, Roll-Up Scenario)*

................................... 10-26 Figure 10.2.25. Average Efficiency of Stock, Ba llasts Operating 4-Foot T5 MiniBP SO and HO Lamps (Emerging Technologies, Shift Scenario)*

........................................ 10-26 Figure 10.5.1. National Annual To tal Installed Equipment and Operating Cost Savings for 4-Foot MBP (Residential) at CSL3 (Existing Technologies, Shift Scenario) Discounted at 7 Perc ent per Year

................................................................................. 10-36 Figure 10.5.2. National Annual To tal Installed Equipment and Operating Cost Savings for 4-Foot MBP (Residential) at CS L3 (Emerging Technologies, Roll-Up Scenario) Discounted at 7 Percent per Year

................................................................ 10-36 Figure 10.5.3. National Annual To tal Installed Equipment and Operating Cost Savings for 4-Foot MBP (Commercial) at CSL3 (Existing Technologies, Shift Scenario) Discounted at 7 Perc ent per Year

................................................................................. 10-37 Figure 10.5.4. National Annual To tal Installed Equipment and Operating Cost Savings for 4-Foot MBP (Commercial) at CSL3 (Existing Technologies, Shift Scenario) Discounted at 7 Perc ent per Year

................................................................................. 10-37 Figure 10.5.5. National Annual To tal Installed Equipment and Operating Cost Savings for 8-Foot Slimline at CSL3 (Existing Technologies, Shift Scenario) Discounted at 7 Percent per Year

.................................................................................................... 10-38 Figure 10.5.6. National Annual To tal Installed Equipment and Operating Cost Savings for 8-Foot Slimline at CSL3 (Emerging Technologies, Roll-Up Scenario) Discounted at 7 Perc ent per Year

................................................................................. 10-38 Figure 10.5.7. National Annual To tal Installed Equipment and Operating Cost Savings for 8-Foot RDC HO at CSL3 (Existing Technologies, Shift Scenario) Discounted at 7 Percent per Year

.................................................................................................... 10-39 Figure 10.5.8. National Annual To tal Installed Equipment and Operating Cost Savings for 8-Foot RDC HO at CSL3 (Emerging Technologies, Roll-Up Scenario) Discounted at 7 Perc ent per Year

................................................................................. 10-39 Figure 10.5.9. National Annual To tal Installed Equipment and Operating Cost Savings for 4-Foot Miniature Bipin T5 Standard Output and High Output at CSL3 (Existing Technologies, Shift Scenario) Discounted at 7 Percent per Year

................ 10-40 Figure 10.5.10. National Annual To tal Installed Equipment a nd Operating Cost Savings for 4-Foot Miniature Bipin T5 Standard Output and High Output at CSL3 (Emerging Technologies, Roll-Up Scenario) Discounted at 7 Percent per Year

........ 10-40

10-iv

### CHAPTER 10. NATIONAL IMPACTS ANALYSIS

10.1 INTRODUCTION

This chapter describes the method for estimating the national impacts of candidate standard levels (CSLs) for analyzed fluorescent lamp ballasts (hereafter “ballasts”). Because ballasts are designed to operate fluorescent lamps, DOE chooses the most common fluorescent lamp used with each ballast to develop representative lamp-and-ballast systems. Fluorescent lamps will not be regulated under the proposed amended energy conservation standards for ballasts; however, the characteristics of complete lamp-and-ballast systems ( e.g. , energy consumption, installed cost, etc.) must be considered for estimating national impacts of ballast CSLs.

In the national impact analysis (NIA), the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) assesses the cumulative national energy savings (NES) and the cumulative national economic impacts of CSLs. DOE measures energy savings as the cumulative quads of energy a CSL is expected to save the Nation. DOE measures economic impacts as the net present value (NPV) in dollars of total customer costs and savings expected to re sult from a CSL. The analysis period over which DOE calculates the NPV and NES is from 2014 to 2044. Results of the NIA described in this chapter include (1) national energy consumption and savings; (2) monetary value of energy savings to the Nation as a result of standards; (3) increased total installed costs to the Nation as a result of standards; and (4) the NPV of energy savings (the difference between the present monetary values of energy savings a nd increased total installed costs).

DOE determines both the NPV and NES for each CSL and each representative product class it selects in the engineering analysis (preliminary TSD chapter 5). In this rulemaking, DOE considers up to three CSLs for each of th e representative ballast product classes.

DOE performs all NIA calculations using a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet, available at www.eere.energy.gov/buildings/appliance_standa rds/residential/fluores cent_lamp_ballasts.html

. Appendix 10A provides instructions for using the spreadsheet.

The following sections describe in deta il the methodology and inputs for the NIA. Several NIA inputs, including per-unit costs, per-unit energy consumption, and national shipments, are discussed in other analyses. In describing the inputs to the NIA, this chapter references those analyses and presents new in formation on installed stock. Section 10.2 discusses DOE’s ballast shipment forecasts by CSL, the installed stock of ballasts, and the mix of efficiencies of that stock. Section 10.3 discusses DOE’s calculation of national energy consumption in the base and standards cases, and the resulting difference in NES between these cases. Section 10.4 discusses th e NPV calculation. Section 10.5 presents the NES and NPV results by representative product class.

10.2 BASE-CASE AND STANDARDS-CASE FORECASTED EFFICIENCY DISTRIBUTIONS, BALLAST STOCKS, AND AVERAGE EFFICIENCY

The characteristics of DOE’s shipment forecas ts (such as equipment costs and operating costs) and projected ballast stoc ks (such as average efficiency and energy consumption) are key

10-1

### aspects of DOE’s NES and NPV estimates. This section describes these key characteristics of stock and shipments as they re late to the NES and NPV. Note that the representative product classes addressed indivi dually in the NES and NPV results ar e aggregated in broader groupings for describing stock and sh ipment characteristics ( e.g. , ballasts operating T 12 and T8 lamps are grouped together by lamp length and lamp base).

For example, the projected distribution of ballast efficiencies shipped and ballast efficiencies in stock are key factors in determining the NPV. Two inputs to the NPV are the perunit total installed cost and per- unit annual operating cost. The per- unit total installed cost often varies with the efficiency of ballasts shipped. Therefore, when higher efficiency ballasts are shipped, higher installed costs are often incurr ed. Section 8.2.2 of the preliminary TSD chapter 8 describes how per-unit total installed costs vary as a function of efficiency for each lamp ballast.

Per-unit annual energy consumption is a key input to the NPV (as an input to the per-unit operating cost) and NES. The per-unit annual en ergy consumption is a function of lamp-and

ballast system characteristics in the installed stock. The total installed stock of lamp-and-ballast systems is used to determine total annual ener gy consumption, a key input into the NES and NPV calculations.

Also important to determining NES and NPV is the average efficiency of the lamp ballast stock. The engineering analysis (preliminary TSD chapter 5) discusses the relationship between lamp-and-ballast system design, system input power and ba llast efficiency. The energy use characterization (preliminary TSD chapter 6) describes how the per-unit energy consumption varies as a function of system input power and market sector application for each lamp-and

ballast system design.

Sections 10.3.2 and 10.4.2 discuss inputs to calcu lation of the NES and NPV in further detail.

The following sections detail the forecasted di stribution of efficienci es, installed ballast stocks, and average efficiency of those stocks in the base and standards cases.

10.2.1 Base and Standards Case Efficiency Distributions

Because the end-user price of ballasts varies w ith efficiency level, the base and standards case forecasted efficiency distributions of shipments affect the average total installed cost per unit. Generally, as the efficiency of a lamp-and-ballast system design increases, the total installed cost increases as well. In addition, the base-cas e and standards-case e fficiency distributions affect the average ballast efficiency in the installed stock, an indication of annual energy consumption. For ballasts, DOE first presented the market share apportionments in the base case in chapter 9. These market share apportionments ch aracterize the shipments of ballasts for each analyzed product class. The forecasted efficiency distributions of ship ments for ballasts depend directly on these apportionments and the total shipme nts of a particular ballast type in each year of the analysis period.

Table 10.2.1 through Table 10.2.20 show the percen tage market share of shipments of ballasts of different CSLs, where the efficiencies correspond to particular CSLs. The table also illustrates how this mix of efficiencies changes over time, from 2014 to 2044.

10-2

### There are two tables per representative ballast product class: one depi cting the efficiency mixes in the existing technologies shift scenar io and one depicting those in the emerging technologies roll-up scenario. Emerging technol ogies scenarios addre ss the penetration of particular ballast markets by light-emitting diode (LED) produc ts; chapter 9 discusses these scenarios in further detail. Because consumers in the shift scenario ma ke purchase decisions based more on the energy savings of a particular ballast design, the shift scenario often presents a more aggressive forecasted effi ciency distribution. For the roll-up scenario, DOE assumed that when possible, consumers will purchase the lowest first-cost ballast option which, in many cases, is often at the minimum allowed efficiency level.

The existing and emerging technologies scen arios affect the number of shipments by product class, without regard to efficiency level. Mostly, these scenarios do not affect the efficiency distributions within a given product class. In a few cases, these scenarios contribute to incidental changes in efficiency distributions through a complex interaction with the substitution trends shown in chapter 9, table 9.2. Specifically , because in the emerging technologies case shipments of some produc t classes are smaller than they are in existing technologies, any substitution trends based on these product classes are smaller as we ll. To the extent that these substitution trends affect the effici ency distributions of particular product classes, this effect is smaller in the emerging technologies case than in the existing technologies case.

Table 10.2.1. Ballasts Operating 4-Foot Medium Bipin (MBP) Lamps (Residential), Base Case and Standards Case Efficiency Distributions (Existing Technologies, Shift Scenario)

Year CSL Proportions of All 4-Foot MBP (Residential) Ballasts Shipped %
Base Case Standards Case CSLs
1 2 3 2014 Baseline 5 5 5 5 1 68 57 57 57 2 26 38 38 38 3 0 0 0 0 Total 100 100 100 100 2029 Baseline 0 0 0 0 1 73 0 0 0 2 27 100 100 100 3 0 0 0 0 Total 100 100 100 100 2044 Baseline 0 0 0 0 1 73 0 0 0 2 27 100 100 100 3 0 0 0 0 Total 100 100 100 100

10-3

### Table 10.2.2. Ballasts Operating 4-Foot MBP Lamps (Residential), Base Case and Standards Case Efficiency Distributions (Existing Technologies , Roll-Up Scenario)

Year CSL Proportions of All 4-Foot MBP (Residential) Ballasts Shipped %
Base Case Standards Case CSLs
1 2 3 2014 Baseline 5 5 5 5 1 68 68 57 57 2 26 26 38 38 3 0 0 0 0 Total 100 100 100 100 2029 Baseline 0 0 0 0 1 73 73 0 0 2 27 27 100 100 3 0 0 0 0 Total 100 100 100 100 2044 Baseline 0 0 0 0 1 73 73 0 0 2 27 27 100 100 3 0 0 0 0 Total 100 100 100 100



### Table 10.2.3. Ballasts Operating 4-Foot MBP Lamps (Residential), Base Case and Standards Case Efficiency Distributions (Emerging Technologies, Shift Scenario)

Year CSL Proportions of All 4-Foot MBP (Residential) Ballasts Shipped %
Base Case Standards Case CSLs
1 2 3 2014 Baseline 5 5 5 5
1 68 57 57 57
2 26 38 38 38
3 0 0 0 0 Total 100 100 100 100
2029 Baseline 0 0 0 0
1 73 0 0 0
2 27 100 100 100
3 0 0 0 0 Total 100 100 100 100
2044 Baseline 0 0 0 0
1 73 0 0 0
2 27 100 100 100
3 0 0 0 0 Total 100 100 100 100

10-4

### Table 10.2.4. Ballasts Operating 4-Foot MBP Lamps (Residential), Base Case and Standards Case Efficiency Distributions (Emerging Technologies, Roll-Up Scenario)

Year CSL Proportions of All 4-Foot MBP (Residential) Ballasts Shipped %
Base Case Standards Case CSLs
1 2 3 2014 Baseline 5 5 5 5 1 68 68 57 57 2 26 26 38 38 3 0 0 0 0 Total 100 100 100 100 2029 Baseline 0 0 0 0 1 73 73 0 0 2 27 27 100 100 3 0 0 0 0 Total 100 100 100 100 2044 Baseline 0 0 0 0 1 73 73 0 0 2 27 27 100 100 3 0 0 0 0 Total 100 100 100 100



### Table 10.2.5. Ballasts Operating 4-Foot MBP Lamps (Commercial), Base Case and Standards Case Efficiency Distributions (Existing Technologi es, Shift Scenario)

Year CSL Proportions of All 4-Foot MB P (Commercial) Ballasts Shipped % Base Case Standards Case CSLs
1 2 3 2014 Baseline 26 22 22 22 1 55 52 52 52 2 9 15 8 8 3 9 11 19 19 Total 100 100 100 100 2029 Baseline 28 0 0 0 1 54 40 40 40 2 9 29 0 0 3 9 31 60 60 Total 100 100 100 100 2044 Baseline 33 0 0 0 1 52 47 47 47 2 8 0 0 0 3 8 53 53 53 Total 100 100 100 100

10-5

### Table 10.2.6. Ballasts Operating 4-Foot MBP Lamps (Commercial), Base Case and Standards Case Efficiency Distributions (Existing Technologies , Roll-Up Scenario)

Year CSL Proportions of All 4-Foot MB P (Commercial) Ballasts Shipped %
Base Case Standards Case CSLs
1 2 3 2014 Baseline 26 22 22 22 1 55 60 52 52 2 9 9 17 8 3 9 9 9 19 Total 100 100 100 100 2029 Baseline 28 0 0 0 1 54 82 40 40 2 9 9 51 0 3 9 9 9 60 Total 100 100 100 100 2044 Baseline 33 0 0 0 1 52 84 47 47 2 8 8 45 0 3 8 8 8 53 Total 100 100 100 100



### Table 10.2.7. Ballasts Operating 4-Foot MBP Lamps (Commercial), Base Case and Standards Case Efficiency Distributions (Emerging Technologies, Shift Scenario)

Year CSL Proportions of All 4-Foot MB P (Commercial) Ballasts Shipped %
Base Case Standards Case CSLs
1 2 3 2014 Baseline 26 22 22 22 1 55 52 52 52 2 9 15 8 8 3 9 11 18 18 Total 100 100 100 100 2029 Baseline 27 0 0 0 1 55 40 40 40 2 9 31 0 0 3 9 29 60 60 Total 100 100 100 100 2044 Baseline 31 0 0 0 1 52 45 45 45 2 8 0 0 0 3 8 55 55 55 Total 100 100 100 100

10-6

### Table 10.2.8. Ballasts Operating 4-Foot MBP Lamps (Commercial), Base Case and Standards Case Efficiency Distributions (Emerging Technologies, Roll-Up Scenario)

Year CSL Proportions of All 4-Foot MB P (Commercial) Ballasts Shipped %
Base Case Standards Case CSLs
1 2 3 2014 Baseline 26 22 22 22 1 55 60 52 52 2 9 9 17 8 3 9 9 9 18 Total 100 100 100 100 2029 Baseline 27 0 0 0 1 55 82 40 40 2 9 9 51 0 3 9 9 9 60 Total 100 100 100 100 2044 Baseline 31 0 0 0 1 52 84 45 45 2 8 8 47 0 3 8 8 8 55 Total 100 100 100 100



### Table 10.2.9. Ballasts Operating 8-Foot Single Pin (Slimline) Lamps, Base Case and Standards Case Efficiency Distributions (Existing Technologi es, Shift Scenario)

Year CSL Proportions of All 8-Foot Slimline Ballasts Shipped %
Base Case Standards Case CSLs
1 2 3 2014 Baseline 70 59 59 59 1 30 41 41 41 2 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 Total 100 100 100 100 2029 Baseline 74 0 0 0 1 26 100 100 100 2 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 Total 100 100 100 100 2044 Baseline 76 0 0 0 1 24 100 100 100 2 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 Total 100 100 100 100

10-7

### Table 10.2.10. Ballasts Operating 8-Foot Slimline Lamps, Base Case and Standards Case Efficiency Distributions (Existing Technologies, Roll-Up Scenario)

Year CSL Proportions of All 8-Foot Slimline Ballasts Shipped %
Base Case Standards Case CSLs
1 2 3 2014 Baseline 70 59 59 59 1 30 41 41 41 2 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 Total 100 100 100 100 2029 Baseline 74 0 0 0 1 26 100 100 100 2 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 Total 100 100 100 100 2044 Baseline 76 0 0 0 1 24 100 100 100 2 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 Total 100 100 100 100



### Table 10.2.11. Ballasts Operating 8-Foot Slimline Lamps. Base Case and Standards Case Efficiency Distributions (Emerging Technologies, Shift Scenario)

Year CSL Proportions of All 8-Foot Slimline Ballasts Shipped %
Base Case Standards Case CSLs
1 2 3 2014 Baseline 70 59 59 59 1 30 41 41 41 2 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 Total 100 100 100 100 2029 Baseline 74 0 0 0 1 26 100 100 100 2 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 Total 100 100 100 100 2044 Baseline 76 0 0 0 1 24 100 100 100 2 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 Total 100 100 100 100

10-8

### Table 10.2.12. Ballasts Operating 8-Foot Slimline Lamps, Base Case and Standards Case Efficiency Distributions (Emerging Technologies, Roll-Up Scenario)

Year CSL Proportions of All 8-Foot Slimline Ballasts Shipped %
Base Case Standards Case CSLs
1 2 3 2014 Baseline 70 59 59 59 1 30 41 41 41 2 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 Total 100 100 100 100 2029 Baseline 74 0 0 0 1 26 100 100 100 2 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 Total 100 100 100 100 2044 Baseline 76 0 0 0 1 24 100 100 100 2 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 Total 100 100 100 100



### Table 10.2.13. Ballasts Operating 8-Foot Reces sed Double Contact (RDC) High Output (HO) Lamps, Base Case and Standards Ca se Efficiency Distributions (Existing Technologies, Shift Scenario)

Year CSL Proportions of All 8-Foot RDC HO Ballasts Shipped %
Base Case Standards Case CSLs
1 2 3 2014 Baseline 78 65 65 65 1 19 33 32 32 2 1 1 2 1 3 1 2 2 2 Total 100 100 100 100 2029 Baseline 79 0 0 0 1 20 99 99 99 2 1 0 0 0 3 0 1 1 1 Total 100 100 100 100 2044 Baseline 80 0 0 0 1 20 100 100 100 2 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 Total 100 100 100 100

10-9

### Table 10.2.14. Ballasts Operating 8-Foot RDC HO La mps, Base Case and Standards Case Efficiency Distributions (Existing Technologies, Roll-Up Scenario)

Year CSL Proportions of All 8-Foot RDC HO Ballasts Shipped %
Base Case Standards Case CSLs
1 2 3 2014 Baseline 78 65 65 65 1 19 33 32 32 2 1 2 1 1 3 1 1 2 2 Total 100 100 100 100 2029 Baseline 79 0 0 0 1 20 99 99 99 2 1 1 0 0 3 0 0 1 1 Total 100 100 100 100 2044 Baseline 80 0 0 0 1 20 100 100 100 2 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 Total 100 100 100 100



### Table 10.2.15. Ballasts Operating 8-Foot RDC HO La mps, Base Case and Standards Case Efficiency Distributions (Emerging Technologies, Shift Scenario)

Year CSL Proportions of All 8-Foot RDC HO Ballasts Shipped %
Base Case Standards Case CSLs
1 2 3 2014 Baseline 78 65 65 65 1 19 33 32 32 2 1 1 2 1 3 1 2 2 2 Total 100 100 100 100 2029 Baseline 79 0 0 0 1 20 99 99 99 2 1 0 0 0 3 0 1 1 1 Total 100 100 100 100 2044 Baseline 80 0 0 0 1 20 100 100 100 2 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 Total 100 100 100 100

10-10

### Table 10.2.16. Ballasts Operating 8-Foot RDC HO La mps, Base Case and Standards Case Efficiency Distributions (Emerging Technologies, Roll-Up Scenario)

Year CSL Proportions of All 8-Foot RDC HO Ballasts Shipped %
Base Case Standards Case CSLs
1 2 3 2014 Baseline 78 65 65 65 1 19 33 32 32 2 1 2 1 1 3 1 1 2 2 Total 100 100 100 100 2029 Baseline 79 0 0 0 1 20 99 99 99 2 1 1 0 0 3 0 0 1 1 Total 100 100 100 100 2044 Baseline 80 0 0 0 1 20 100 100 100 2 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 Total 100 100 100 100



### Table 10.2.17. Ballasts Operating 4-Foot T5 Mini ature Bipin (MiniBP) Standard Output (SO) and HO Lamps, Base Case and Standard s Case Efficiency Distributions (Existing Technologies, Shift Scenario)

Year CSL Proportions of All 4-Foot MiniBP SO and HO Ballasts Shipped %
Base Case Standards Case CSLs
1 2 3 2014 Baseline 69 49 49 49 1 16 31 11 11 2 16 20 40 40 3 0 0 0 0 Total 100 100 100 100 2029 Baseline 69 0 0 0 1 16 47 0 0 2 16 53 100 100 3 0 0 0 0 Total 100 100 100 100 2044 Baseline 69 0 0 0 1 16 18 0 0 2 16 82 100 100 3 0 0 0 0 Total 100 100 100 100

10-11

### Table 10.2.18. Ballasts Operating 4-Foot T5 Mi niBP SO and HO Lamps, Base Case and Standards Case Efficiency Distributions (Existing Technologies , Roll-Up Scenario)

Year CSL Proportions of All 4-Foot MiniBP SO and HO Ballasts Shipped %
Base Case Standards Case CSLs
1 2 3 2014 Baseline 69 49 49 49 1 16 35 11 11 2 16 16 40 40 3 0 0 0 0 Total 100 100 100 100 2029 Baseline 69 0 0 0 1 16 85 0 0 2 16 16 100 100 3 0 0 0 0 Total 100 100 100 100 2044 Baseline 69 0 0 0 1 16 85 0 0 2 16 16 100 100 3 0 0 0 0 Total 100 100 100 100



### Table 10.2.19. Ballasts Operating 4-Foot T5 Mi niBP SO and HO Lamps, Base Case and Standards Case Efficiency Distributions (Emerging Technologies, Shift Scenario)

Year CSL Proportions of All 4-Foot MiniBP SO and HO Ballasts Shipped %
Base Case Standards Case CSLs
1 2 3 2014 Baseline 69 50 50 50 1 16 30 11 11 2 16 20 39 39 3 0 0 0 0 Total 100 100 100 100 2029 Baseline 69 0 0 0 1 16 47 0 0 2 16 53 100 100 3 0 0 0 0 Total 100 100 100 100 2044 Baseline 69 0 0 0 1 16 16 0 0 2 16 84 100 100 3 0 0 0 0 Total 100 100 100 100

10-12

### Table 10.2.20. Ballasts Operating 4-Foot T5 Mi niBP SO and HO Lamps, Base Case and Standards Case Efficiency Distributions (Emerging Technologies, Roll-Up Scenario)

Year CSL Proportions of All 4-Foot MiniBP SO and HO Ballasts Shipped %
Base Case Standards Case CSLs
1 2 3 2014 Baseline 69 50 50 50 1 16 35 11 11 2 16 16 39 39 3 0 0 0 0 Total 100 100 100 100 2029 Baseline 69 0 0 0 1 16 85 0 0 2 16 16 100 100 3 0 0 0 0 Total 100 100 100 100 2044 Baseline 69 0 0 0 1 16 85 0 0 2 16 16 100 100 3 0 0 0 0 Total 100 100 100 100



### 10.2.2 Installed Ballast Stock

The installed ballast stock in a given year is the total number of ballasts shipped that year and in prior years that are still operating. The NES model tracks the ballasts shipped each year, and ballasts are retired when they reach the end of their lifetime. From this information and the shipments forecasts presented in chapter 9, DOE established the installed ballast stock profile for all analyzed ballast product classes. Figure 10.2.1 through Figure 10.2.5 show these ballast stocks in the base case and standards case for CSL3 under the same pair of scenarios analyzed throughout this chapter: the existing technologie s shift scenario and the emerging technologies roll-up scenario. At CSL 3, the roll-up and shift scenarios are the same: both scenarios assume that the entire market moves to CSL 3, or the highest efficiency level available for product classes that do not have an ava ilable CSL 3 efficiency level option. The difference between the emerging technologies and existing technologies scenar ios, as noted earlier, is that shipments are smaller in the emerging technologies case for affe cted product classes. In the following figures, where the existing technologies shift scenario differs from the emerging technologies roll-up scenario it is because of this smaller number of shipments. However, not all product classes are assumed to experience penetration by LED products in the emerging technologies scenario, which results in identical stocks and overlapping curves in some figures ( e.g. , Figure 10.2.3).
For most types of ballasts, installed stock increases over time, particularly in the Existing Technologies scenario. However, some ballast types experience a decline in stocks over the analysis period due to growing substitution for other ballast types as shown in chapter 9, table 9.2. For example, the market for 8-foot RD C HO ballasts for general lighting applications is assumed to decline over the analysis period; however, T12 RDC HO cold temperature/sign ballasts included in the same product grouping dominate the overa ll stock, and drive its growth (Figure 10.2.4).

10-13

### Figure 10.2.1. 4-Foot MBP (Res idential) Installed Ba llast Stock (CSL 3)

Figure 10.2.2. 4-Foot MBP (Commercial) In stalled Ballast Stock (CSL 3)

10-14

### Figure 10.2.3. 8-Foot Slimline Insta lled Ballast St ock (CSL 3)

Figure 10.2.4. 8-Foot RDC HO Insta lled Ballast St ock (CSL 3)

10-15

### Figure 10.2.5. 4-Foot T5 MiniBP SO and HO Installed Ballast Stock (CSL 3)

10.2.3 Average Ballast Efficiency in the Stock

As discussed earlier, the average efficiency of ballast stocks can be an indication of the energy consumption, and is an important input to both the NPV and NES calculations. Figure 10.2.6 through Figure 10.2.25 present the average e fficiency forecasts of ballast stocks (as represented by ballast efficacy factor, BEF) in the base case and standards case for both the existing technologies/shift, existing technolog ies/roll-up, emerging technologies/roll-up, and emerging technologies/shift scenarios for each product class. Each figure presents the efficiencies at multiple CSLs. While CSLs vary from zero (the base case) to three, some representative product classes have fewer than all four possible CSLs. As a result, in some cases two or more CSLs may yield the same average ba llast efficiency, which results in overlapping curves in the figures. These figures’ titles are noted with a “*”.

10-16

## 1.44 1.45 1.46 1.47 1.48 1.49

1.5 1.512014201620182020202220242026202820302032203420362038204020422044AverageBEF 

### Base Case

CSL 1

CSL 2

CSL 3



### Figure 10.2.6. Average Efficiency of Stock, Ballasts Operating 4-Foot MBP Lamps (Residential, Existing Tec hnologies, Shift Scenario)*



### 1.44 1.45 1.46 1.47 1.48 1.49

1.5 1.512014201620182020202220242026202820302032203420362038204020422044AverageBEF 

### Base Case

CSL 1

CSL 2

CSL 3



### Figure 10.2.7. Average Efficiency of Stock, Ballasts Operating 4-Foot MBP Lamps (Residential, Existing Techno logies, Roll-Up Scenario)*

10-17

### 1.44 1.45 1.46 1.47 1.48 1.49

1.5 1.512014201620182020202220242026202820302032203420362038204020422044AverageBEF 

### Base Case

CSL 1

CSL 2

CSL 3



### Figure 10.2.8. Average Efficiency of Stock, Ballasts Operating 4-Foot MBP Lamps (Residential, Emerging Techno logies, Roll-Up Scenario)*

1.44 1.45 1.46 1.47 1.48 1.49

1.5 1.512014201620182020202220242026202820302032203420362038204020422044AverageBEF 

### Base Case

CSL 1

CSL 2

CSL 3



### Figure 10.2.9. Average Efficiency of Stock, Ballasts Operating 4-Foot MBP Lamps (Residential, Emerging Techno logies, Shift Scenario)*

10-18

### 1.21 1.22 1.23 1.24 1.25 1.26 1.27 1.28 1.29

1.3 1.312014201620182020202220242026202820302032203420362038204020422044AverageBEF 

### Base Case

CSL 1

CSL 2

CSL 3



### Figure 10.2.10. Average Efficiency of Stock, Ballasts Operating 4-Foot MBP Lamps (Commercial, Existing Technologies, Shift Scenario)*



### 1.21 1.22 1.23 1.24 1.25 1.26 1.27 1.28 1.29

1.3 1.312014201620182020202220242026202820302032203420362038204020422044AverageBEF 

### Base Case

CSL 1

CSL 2

CSL 3



### Figure 10.2.11. Average Efficiency of Stock, Ballasts Operating 4-Foot MBP Lamps (Commercial, Existing Technologies, Roll-Up Scenario)

10-19

### 1.22 1.23 1.24 1.25 1.26 1.27 1.28 1.29

1.3 1.312014201620182020202220242026202820302032203420362038204020422044AverageBEF 

### Base Case

CSL 1

CSL 2

CSL 3



### Figure 10.2.12. Average Efficiency of Stock, Ballasts Operating 4-Foot MBP Lamps (Commercial, Emerging Technologies, Roll-Up Scenario)



### 1.22 1.23 1.24 1.25 1.26 1.27 1.28 1.29

1.3 1.312014201620182020202220242026202820302032203420362038204020422044AverageBEF 

### Base Case

CSL 1

CSL 2

CSL 3



### Figure 10.2.13. Average Efficiency of Stock, Ballasts Operating 4-Foot MBP Lamps (Commercial, Emerging Technologies, Shift Scenario)*

10-20

### 0.785 0.79 0.795 0.8 0.805

0.81 0.8152014201620182020202220242026202820302032203420362038204020422044AverageBEF 

### Base Case

CSL 1

CSL 2

CSL 3



### Figure 10.2.14. Average Efficiency of Stock, Ba llasts Operating 8-Foot Slimline Lamps (Existing Technologies , Shift Scenario)*



### 0.785

0.79 0.795 0.8 0.805

0.81 0.8152014201620182020202220242026202820302032203420362038204020422044AverageBEF 

### Base Case

CSL 1

CSL 2

CSL 3



### Figure 10.2.15. Average Efficiency of Stock, Ba llasts Operating 8-Foot Slimline Lamps (Existing Technologies , Roll-Up Scenario)*

10-21

### 0.785 0.79 0.795 0.8 0.805

0.81 0.8152014201620182020202220242026202820302032203420362038204020422044AverageBEF 

### Base Case

CSL 1

CSL 2

CSL 3



### Figure 10.2.16. Average Efficiency of Stock, Ba llasts Operating 8-Foot Slimline Lamps (Emerging Technologies , Roll-Up Scenario)*

0.785

0.79 0.795 0.8 0.805

0.81 0.8152014201620182020202220242026202820302032203420362038204020422044AverageBEF 

### Base Case

CSL 1

CSL 2

CSL 3



### Figure 10.2.17. Average Efficiency of Stock, Ba llasts Operating 8-Foot Slimline Lamps (Emerging Technologies , Shift Scenario)*

10-22

### 0 0.05

0.1 0.15

0.2 0.25

0.32014201620182020202220242026202820302032203420362038204020422044AverageBEF Base Case

CSL 1

CSL 2

CSL 3



### Figure 10.2.18. Average Efficiency of Stock, Ballasts Operating 8-Foot RDC HO Lamps (Existing Technologies , Shift Scenario)*

0 0.05

0.1 0.15

0.2 0.25

0.32014201620182020202220242026202820302032203420362038204020422044AverageBEF 

### Base Case

CSL 1

CSL 2

CSL 3



### Figure 10.2.19. Average Efficiency of Stock, Ballasts Operating 8-Foot RDC HO Lamps (Existing Technologies , Roll-Up Scenario)*

10-23

### 0 0.05

0.1 0.15

0.2 0.25

0.32014201620182020202220242026202820302032203420362038204020422044AverageBEF 

### Base Case

CSL 1

CSL 2

CSL 3



### Figure 10.2.20. Average Efficiency of Stock, Ballasts Operating 8-Foot RDC HO Lamps (Emerging Technologies , Roll-Up Scenario)*

0 0.05

0.1 0.15

0.2 0.25

0.32014201620182020202220242026202820302032203420362038204020422044AverageBEF 

### Base Case

CSL 1

CSL 2

CSL 3



### Figure 10.2.21. Average Efficiency of Stock, Ballasts Operating 8-Foot RDC HO Lamps (Emerging Technologies , Shift Scenario)*

10-24

### 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8

1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.82014201620182020202220242026202820302032203420362038204020422044AverageBEF Base Case

CSL 1

CSL 2

CSL 3



### Figure 10.2.22. Average Efficiency of Stock, Ball asts Operating 4-Foot T5 MiniBP SO and HO Lamps (Existing Technologies, Shift Scenario)*

0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8

1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.82014201620182020202220242026202820302032203420362038204020422044AverageBEF 

### Base Case

CSL 1

CSL 2

CSL 3



### Figure 10.2.23. Average Efficiency of Stock, Ball asts Operating 4-Foot T5 MiniBP SO and HO Lamps (Existing Technol ogies, Roll-Up Scenario)*

10-25

### 1.1 1.15

1.2 1.25

1.3 1.35

1.4 1.45

1.52014201620182020202220242026202820302032203420362038204020422044AverageBEF 

### Base Case

CSL 1

CSL 2

CSL 3



### Figure 10.2.24. Average Efficiency of Stock, Ball asts Operating 4-Foot T5 MiniBP SO and HO Lamps (Emerging Technologies, Roll-Up Scenario)*

1.1 1.15

1.2 1.25

1.3 1.35

1.4 1.45

1.52014201620182020202220242026202820302032203420362038204020422044AverageBEF 

### Base Case

CSL 1

CSL 2

CSL 3



### Figure 10.2.25. Average Efficiency of Stock, Ball asts Operating 4-Foot T5 MiniBP SO and HO Lamps (Emerging Technologies, Shift Scenario)*

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### 10.3 NATIONAL ENERGY SAVINGS

10.3.1 National Energy S avings Definition

DOE calculates annual national energy saving s as the difference between the base case (without new standards) and the standards case (with new standards). Positive values of NES correspond to net energy savings fo llowing standards implementation; i.e. , national annual energy consumption (AEC) with standard s is less than AEC in the base case.

NES t 

### = ( AEC t , base 

### − AEC t , std 

### ) × HVAC × RR 

### Eq. 10.1

Where:

NES t 

### = national energy savings in year t , AEC = annual national energy consumption each year (at the source) in quadrillion British thermal units (quads), HVAC= heating, ventilation, air conditioning (HVAC) factor, RR = rebound factor, equal to one plus the rebound rate,
t = year in the forecast ( e.g. , 2014 to 2044), base = base case, and std = standards case.

Cumulative energy savings are the sum over a defined time period from the implementation of a standard forward (from 2014 to 2044) of the annu al national energy savings multiplied by the HVAC interaction factor and rebound rate.

NES

cum 

### = 

# ∑ NES t 

### Eq. 10.2

t



### Where:

NES cum 

### = cumulative national energy savings.

DOE calculated the AEC (in any year) by multiplying the number or stock of ballasts by the product of the annual unit energy consumpti on and the site-to-source conversion factor, shown by the following equation:

AEC = 

# ∑ STOCK bd 

### × UEC bd 

### × src
_ conv t 

### Eq. 10.3

bd



### Where:

bd = ballast ID number, STOCK bd 

### = stock of ballasts for a given design surviving in the year for which DOE calculated AEC, UEC bd



### = unit energy consumption (kWh per year), and
src_conv t 

### = time-dependent conversion factor to convert from site energy (kWh) to source energy (quads, Btu/kWh).

10-27

### 10.3.2 National Energy Savings Inputs

Table 10.3.1 lists the inputs for the determination of NES.

Table 10.3.1 National Energy Saving Inputs Input Unit Energy Consumption, UEC Ballast Stock by Design ( STOCKld ) Site-to-Source Conversion Factor ( src_conv ) Heating, Ventilation, Air Conditioning Factor ( HVAC ) Rebound Rate ( RR )



### 10.3.2.1 Unit Energy Consumption (UEC)

DOE presented the per-unit UEC for each lamp-and-ballast system design in the energy use characterization (preliminary TSD chapter 6). For the NES and NPV calculations, DOE used an average number of annual operating hours for each sector and ballast type in calculating the UEC of each lamp-and-ballast system design.

10.3.2.2 Ballast Stock

The ballast stock in a given year is the total number of ballast shipped in prior years that survive. The NES spreadsheet model keeps track of the ballasts shipped each year. DOE discusses forecasted shipments for the base case a nd all standards cases in chapter 9. To generate the shipments that eventually compose the ballast stock, the shipments analysis incorporates one set of base-case scenarios and one set of standards case scenarios that can affect shipments. The base-case scenarios, existing and emerging technol ogies, dictate the penetration of other lighting technologies, and therefore affect the total volum e of ballast shipments and installed stock. The standards-case scenarios are comprised of the roll-up and shift scenarios. These scenarios dictate the inputs to the market-share apportionments , and therefore affect the breakdown of the installed stock by ballast design from 2014 to 2044.

These standards case scenarios are compared to two separate base case scenarios (existing and emerging technologies) resulting in four possible sets of results. The shift scenario generally results in higher energy savings than the roll-up scenario. The market share apportionments as presented in chapter 9 provide for the breakdown of the stock by ballast design.

10.3.2.3 Site-to-Source Conversion Factors

The site-to-source conversion factor is the multiplier DOE uses for converting site-energy consumption into primary or source energy cons umption. For electricity, the conversion factors vary over time due to projected changes in generation sources ( i.e. , the power plant types projected to provide el ectricity to the country). For this rulemaking, DOE calculated annual average site-to-source conversion factors based on the version of the National Energy Modeling Systems (NEMS) that corresponds to the Energy Information Administration’s Annual Energy Outlook (

AEO ). Table 10.3.2 presents site-to-source fact ors used in the NES spreadsheet model. The average conversion factors vary over time, due to projected changes in electricity generation sources. For the preliminary analysis, DOE used the site-to-source conversion factors from the

10-28

### 2008 version of the AEO ( AEO2008 ), and will update to the late st available version of the AEO during the next phase of the analysis. 1



### Table 10.3.2 Site-to-Source Conversion Factors

Year Site-to-Source Conversion Factor Btu/kWh Year Site-to-Source Conversion Factor Btu/kWh 2012 8,700 2028 10,400 2013 8,800 2029 10,400 2014 8,900 2030 10,400 2015 8,900 2031 10,400 2016 9,200 2032 10,400 2017 9,500 2033 10,400 2018 9,500 2034 10,400 2019 9,700 2035 10,400 2020 9,900 2036 10,400 2021 9,900 2037 10,400 2022 9,900 2038 10,400 2023 10,100 2039 10,400 2024 10,200 2040 10,400 2025 10,200 2041 10,400 2026 10,200 2042 10,400 2027 10,400 Source: AEO2008 . Conversion factors beyond 2030 are extrapolated.



### 10.3.2.4 Interactions with Heating, Ventilation, and Air-Conditioning (HVAC) Systems

Interactions with heating, ventilating, and air-conditioning systems in the commercial and industrial sectors are represented by an HVAC factor, as given in Eq. 10.3. The HVAC factor reflects the extent to which the energy savings from more efficient equipment are offset by increased demands placed on heating and cooling equipment in the presence of more efficient equipment. Typically this takes the form of increased efficiency being achieved through less energy wasted as heat, increasing the burden on HVAC equipment in wint er months. Consistent with the Lamps rule, DOE assumed an HVAC fa ctor of 1.06 in the co mmercial and industrial sectors and assumed an HVAC factor of 1 for the residential sector.

10.3.2.5 Rebound Rate

In its analysis, DOE considers the rebound effect that occurs after installation of energyefficient lighting equipment. Under economic theo ry, “rebound effect” refers to the tendency of a consumer to respond to the cost savings associat ed with more efficient equipment in a manner that actually leads to marginally greater pr oduct usage, thereby diminishing some portion of anticipated benefits related to improved efficiency. DOE examined a summary of the literature regarding the rebound effect in relation to lighting equipment. 2 

### Based on four studies, the summary estimated that for a 100-percent increase in energy efficiency, “take-back” or rebound values for residential lighting are between 5 and 12 percent of energy consumption savings. The summary estimated zero to 2-pe rcent rebound values for commerc ial and industrial lighting.

10-29

### Therefore, in the calculation of national energy savings due to energy conservation standards on lighting, DOE calculated a rebound rate of 8.5 percen t in the residential s ector and 1 percent in the commercial and i ndustrial sectors.

However, the take-back in energy consum ption associated with the rebound effect provides consumers with increased value ( e.g. , increased lighting hours, since the increased efficiency enables consumers to use their lighting equipment for longer periods of time). The impact on consumers is therefore the sum of the change in the cost of owning the lighting equipment ( i.e. , life-cycle cost [LCC]) and the increased value of more lighting hours. DOE has not been able to monetize this increase in consumer value in the LCC analysis. If it were able to monetize the increased value to consumers of the rebound effect, this value would be equal to or greater than the value of the foregone energy savings. For this analysis, DOE estimates that this value is equal to the monetary value of the ener gy savings that would have occurred without the rebound effect. Therefore, while the assumed rebound rate affects the calculated energy savings from amended standards, it does not affect the calculated monetary value of those savings.

10.4 NET PRESENT VALUE

10.4.1 Net Present Value Definition

The NPV is the value in the present of a time series of costs and savings. The NPV is calculated as follows:

NPV = PVS

− PVC 

### Eq. 10.4

Where:

PVS = present value of operating cost savings, and PVC = present value of increased total installed costs.

The PVS and PVC are determined according to the following expressions:



### PVS = 

# ∑ OCS t 

### × DF t 

### Eq. 10.5



### PVC = 

# ∑ TIC t 

### × DF t 

### Eq. 10.6

Where:



### OCS = total annual operating cost savings, 

### TIC = total annual installed cost increases, 

### DF = discount factor, and


### t = year ( 

### PVS and 

### PVC are summed over 2014-2044).

DOE determined the contributions to PVC and PVS for each year from the effective date of the standard, 2014 to 2044, discounted for th e preliminary analysis to 2008. DOE calculated costs and savings as the difference between a standards case ( 

### i.e. , with amended standards) and a base case ( 

### i.e. , without amended standards). DOE calcula ted a discount factor from the discount

10-30

### rate and the number of years between the “present” ( 

### i.e. , year to which the sum is being discounted) and the year in which the costs and savings occur. DOE calculated the net present value as the sum over time of the discounted net savings (which is equivalent to the approach shown in Eqs. 10.4 through 10.6).

10.4.2 Net Present Value Inputs

Table 10.4.1 summarizes the inputs to the NPV calculation.

Table 10.4.1 Net Present Value Inputs Input Total Annual Installed Cost Increases ( TICt ) Total Annual Operating Cost Savings ( OCSt ) Discount Factor



### 10.4.2.1 Total Annual Installed Cost Increases

DOE calculated the increase in total annual in stalled costs as the difference between the total annual installed cost s in the standards case minus those in the base case. For each case, the total annual installed costs e qual the product of the shipments and per unit installed cost (summed over each ballast design). Although ballast designs often have slightly varying lifetimes, as discussed in chapter 9, DOE used an average lifetime of each ballast type for each product class. Therefore, to ensure the accurate calculation of NPV, DOE scaled the per unit installed costs of each lamp to account fo r this modification of ballast lifetime.

10.4.2.2 Total Annual Operating Cost Savings

As the LCC and payback period (PBP) analysis (preliminary TSD chapter 8) describes, DOE calculates total annual operating costs based on national average electricity prices. DOE calculates total annual operatin g cost savings as the differenc e between total annual operating costs in the base case minus those in the st andards case. (The only component of annual operating cost for lamp-and-ballast systems that is different between the base case and the standards case is the cost of electricity consumption.)



### OCS = 

# ∑ STOCK bd 

### × UEC bd 

### × electricity price Eq. 10.7

bd


### DOE uses an average number of annual opera ting hours for each sector and ballast type in calculating the UEC of each lamp-and-ballast design.

DOE uses national average commercial electricity prices for commercial sector 4-foot MBP, 8-foot slimline, and 4-foot T5 MiniBP SO systems. DOE uses national average industrial prices for the 8-foot RDC HO and 4-foot T5 Mi niBP HO systems. For 4-foot MBP systems in the residential sector, DOE uses national-average residential electricity prices for its analysis. DOE uses 

### AEO2009 to establish all electricity prices. 3,4 

### Chapter 8 provides the electricity price forecasts DOE uses to calculate the NPV.

10-31

### 10.4.2.3 Discount Factor

DOE multiplies monetary values in future year s by the discount factor (DF) to calculate the present value. The following equation desc ribes how to calculate the discount factor:

t

− t p 

### ) 

### DF = 

### 1 

# ( 1 + r 

# ) ( 

### Eq. 10.8

Where:



### r = discount rate,


### t = year of the monetary value, and


### t p 

### = year in which the present value is being determined.

DOE estimates national impacts with both a 3-pe rcent and a 7-percent real discount rate as the average real rate of return on private i nvestment in the U.S. economy. These discount rates are used in accordance with the Office of Management and Budget (OMB)’s guidance to Federal agencies on the development of regulatory an alysis (OMB Circular A-4, September 17, 2003), and section E, “Identifying and Measuring Benefits and Costs,” therein. 5 

### DOE defined the present year as 2014 (the first year of th e standard) for this preliminary analysis.

10.5 NATIONAL ENERGY SAVINGS AND NET PRESENT VALUE RESULTS

The NES spreadsheet model provides estimates of the NES and NPV due to various CSLs. The inputs to the NES spreadsheet are discussed in sections 10.3.2 and section 10.4.2. DOE generated the NES and NPV results using Microsoft Excel spreadsheets, accessible at http://www.eere.energy.gov/buildings/appliance_st andards/residential/fl uorescent_lamp_ballasts

. html . Appendix 10A provides instructions for using the spreadsheets.

10.5.1 National Energy Savings and Net Present Value Input Summary

Table 10.5.1 summarizes the inputs to the NES sp readsheet model. A brief description of the data is given for each input.

10-32

### Table 10.5.1. National Energy Saving and Net Present Value Inputs Input Data Data Description Shipments Annual shipments from the ballast shipment model (preliminary TSD chapter 9).
Stock of Ballasts Established based on the calculated 2014 ballast stock, the service life of ballasts, penetration of emerging technologies, and annual shipments. The 2014 initial stock is based on estimated historical shipments based on U.S.Census Bureau Current Industrial Reports data, estimated ballast service lifetimes, and the assumed growth rate of the historical stock from 1990–2013 (preliminary TSD chapter 9).
Effective Date of Standard 2014 Analysis Period 2014 to 2044 Unit Energy Consumption (kWh/yr) Established in the Energy-Use Characterization (preliminary TSD chapter 6) by lamp-and-ballast design and sector.
Total Installed Cost Established in the Markups Analysis (preliminary TSD chapter 7) and the LCC Analysis (preliminary TSD chapter 8) by lamp-and-ballast designs. Electricity Price Forecast EIA forecasts (to 2030) from the AEO2009 (original, or March, version*) and extrapolation for beyond 2030 (preliminary TSD chapter 8). Electricity Site-to-Source Conversion Conver sion varies yearly and was generated by AEO2008 forecasts (to 2030) of electricity generation and electricity-related losses. Conversion factors beyond 2030 are extrapolated. HVAC Interaction Savings Negligible.
Rebound Effect 1% of total energy savings in the commercial sector 8.5% of total energy savings in the residential sector
Discount Rate 3 and 7 percent real.

Present Year Future costs and savings are discounted to 2014. *While this analysis relied on the most recent (April 2009) version of the AEO where possible, that version was only a partial update and did not include sufficient information to extrapolate high- and low-price scenario. Accordingly, DOE used the March 2009 version for electricity price scenarios.



### 10.5.2 National Energy Savings Results

The following section provides NES results for each CSL that DOE considers for ballasts. Results are cumulative to 2044 and are shown as primary energy savings measured in quads

. As discussed earlier, DOE analyzes several sh ipment scenarios for ballasts. In this section DOE presents only upper and lower bound energy savi ngs and net present value results (from the existing/shift and emerging/roll-up scenarios, respectively).

Table 10.5.2 and Table 10.5.3 show the NES resu lts under the existing technologies, shift scenario, which reflects the upper bound of energy savings, and the emerging, roll-up scenario, which reflects the lower bound, respectively. Due to a larger reduction in th e installed stock of ballasts affected by standards, the emerging technologies base-case forecast results in lower energy savings than the existing technologies base -case forecast. Finally, because in the shift scenario more consumers move to higher-efficiency lamp-and-ballast systems than in the roll-up scenario, the shift scenario results in higher energy savings than the roll-up scenario.

Table 10.5.2 and Table 10.5.3 present total national energy savings for each CSL by ballast type and in total. However, it is importa nt to note that the numbers presented in these

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### tables are calculated assuming that all ballast types face the same trial standard level. This matters because in some cases the regulation of certain ballast types affects the savings from regulating others. If different ballasts are regulated at different standard levels, savings will vary somewhat from the values given here. Nevertheless, these savings illustrate the expected relative energy savings of each ballast type under a given CSL.

Table 10.5.2. Cumulative National Energy Savings for Ballasts under the Existing, Shift Scenario (2014-2044)
CSL Ballast Product Class NES Discount * quads None Percentage 7 3 1 Two-Lamp Normal BF 4-Foot MBP IS & RS 1.632 0.359 0.813 Two-Lamp Normal BF 4-Foot MBP PS 0.251 0.050 0.120 Four-Lamp Normal BF 4-Foot MBP IS & RS -0.395 -0.088 -0.197 Four-Lamp Normal BF 4-Foot MBP PS 0.133 0.025 0.062 Two-Lamp Normal BF 8-Foot RDC HO IS & RS 0.013 0.005 0.009 Two-Lamp Normal BF 8-Foot SP Slimline (T12 Baseline) 0.000 0.000 0.000 Two-Lamp Normal BF 8-Foot SP Slimline (T8 Baseline) 0.022 0.005 0.011 Two-Lamp Normal BF 4-Foot T5 Minibp SO 1.923 0.345 0.877 Two-Lamp 4-Foot T5 MiniBP HO 0.710 0.149 0.346 Two-Lamp Low BF 4-Foot MBP IS & RS Residential -0.135 -0.029 -0.066 Four-Lamp Sign Ballasts 4.986 1.069 2.453 Total 9.140 1.891 4.427 2 Two-Lamp Normal BF 4-Foot MBP IS & RS 1.725 0.388 0.868 Two-Lamp Normal BF 8-Foot RDC HO IS & RS 0.014 0.006 0.010 Two-Lamp Normal BF 4-Foot T5 MiniBP SO 2.264 0.422 1.050 Two-Lamp 4-Foot T5 MiniBP HO 0.744 0.161 0.368 Two-Lamp Low BF 4-Foot MBP IS & RS Residential -0.136 -0.029 -0.067 Total 4.382 0.949 2.228 3 Two-Lamp Normal BF 4-Foot MBP IS & RS 1.725 0.388 0.868 Total 1.727 0.388 0.868

* Note that energy savings for individual ballast product classes (due to separate regulation) do not sum to equal total energy savings achieved at the CSLs due to standards-induced substitution effects among ballast types.

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### Table 10.5.3. Cumulative National Energy Savings for Ballasts under the Emerging, RollUp Scenario (2014-2044)
CSL Ballast Product Class NES Discount * quads None Percentage 7 3 1 Two-Lamp Normal BF 4-Foot MBP IS & RS 0.000 0.000 0.000 Two-Lamp Normal BF 4-Foot MBP PS 0.135 0.032 0.069 Four-Lamp Normal BF 4-Foot MBP IS & RS -0.242 -0.062 -0.129 Four-Lamp Normal BF 4-Foot MBP PS 0.067 0.015 0.034 Two-Lamp Normal BF 8-Foot RDC HO IS & RS 0.006 0.003 0.005 Two-Lamp Normal BF 8-Foot SP Slimline (T12 Baseline) 0.000 0.000 0.000 Two-Lamp Normal BF 8-Foot SP Slimline (T8 Baseline) 0.022 0.005 0.011 Two-Lamp Normal BF 4-Foot T5 Minibp SO 0.825 0.178 0.407 Two-Lamp 4-Foot T5 MiniBP HO 0.582 0.126 0.288 Two-Lamp Low BF 4-Foot MBP IS & RS Residential -0.006 -0.002 -0.003 Four-Lamp Sign Ballasts 4.986 1.069 2.453 Total 6.375 1.365 3.136 2 Two-Lamp Normal BF 4-Foot MBP IS & RS 0.913 0.235 0.488 Two-Lamp Normal BF 8-Foot RDC HO IS & RS 0.016 0.007 0.011 Two-Lamp Normal BF 4-Foot T5 MiniBP SO 1.209 0.261 0.597 Two-Lamp 4-Foot T5 MiniBP HO 0.744 0.161 0.368 Two-Lamp Low BF 4-Foot MBP IS & RS Residential -0.136 -0.029 -0.067 Total 2.746 0.635 1.397 3 Two-Lamp Normal BF 4-Foot MBP IS & RS 1.050 0.270 0.562 Total 1.050 0.270 0.562

* Note that energy savings for individual ballast product classes (due to separate regulation) do not sum to equal total energy savings achieved at the CSLs due to standards-induced substitution effects among ballast types.



### 10.5.3 Net Present Value Analysis

The NPV calculation attempts to calculate the total monetary costs and benefits of the standard for all consumers of ballasts. This calculation relies primarily on two inputs: the NES calculations described in the previous section, whic h are translated into a decrease (or in some cases increase) in operating costs; and the increase (or in some cases decrease) in installed costs.

This section graphs both elements of NPV over time. Figure 10.5.1 through Figure 10.5.10 present the discounted annua l total installed cost increa ses and annual operating cost savings at the national level using a 7-percent discount rate. Both annua l total installed cost increases and annual operating costs saving s accumulate from 2014 to 2044. The figures also present the NPV, which is the difference betw een cumulative annual disc ounted operating cost savings and the cumulative annual discounted total in stalled cost increases.

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### 30

20

10 Discounted Operating
Cost Savings

Discounted Installed Cost 

### 0 Increase20142017202020232026202920322035203820412044Millions



### Total NPV



### ‐ 10

‐ 20

‐ 30

Figure 10.5.1. National Annual Total Installed E quipment and Operating Cost Savings for 4-Foot MBP (Residential) at CS L3 (Existing Technologies, Shif t Scenario) Discounted at 7 Percent per Year

30

20

10 Discounted Operating20142017202020232026202920322035203820412044Millions 

### Cost Savings

Discounted Installed Cost 

### 0 Increase

Total NPV



### ‐ 10

‐ 20

‐ 30



### Figure 10.5.2. National Annual Total Installed E quipment and Operating Cost Savings for 4-Foot MBP (Residential) at CSL3 (Emerging Technologies, Roll-Up Scenario) Discounted at 7 Percent per Year

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### ‐ 1,000 ‐ 800 ‐ 600 ‐ 400 ‐ 200 0 200 400 600 800 1,00020142017202020232026202920322035203820412044Millions 

### Discounted Operating
Cost Savings

Discounted Installed Cost
Increase

Total NPV



### Figure 10.5.3. National Annual Total Installed E quipment and Operating Cost Savings for 4-Foot MBP (Commercial) at CSL3 (Existing T echnologies, Shift Scenario) Discounted at 7 Percent per Year

‐ 1,000

‐ 800 ‐ 600 ‐ 400 ‐ 200 0 200 400 600 800 1,00020142017202020232026202920322035203820412044Millions Discounted Operating
Cost Savings

Discounted Installed Cost
Increase

Total NPV



### Figure 10.5.4. National Annual Total Installed Equipment and Operating Cost Savings for 4-Foot MBP (Commercial) at CSL3 (Existing Te chnologies, Shift Scenario) Discounted at 7 Percent per Year

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### ‐ 4 ‐ 3 ‐ 2 ‐ 1 0 1 2 3 4 520142017202020232026202920322035203820412044Millions 

### Discounted Operating Cost Savings

Discounted Installed Cost
Increase

Total NPV



### Figure 10.5.5. National Annual Total Installed E quipment and Operating Cost Savings for 8-Foot Slimline at CSL3 (Exist ing Technologies, Shift Scenar io) Discounted at 7 Percent per Year

‐ 4 ‐ 3 ‐ 2 ‐ 1 0 1 2 3 4 520142017202020232026202920322035203820412044Millions 

### Discounted Operating
Cost Savings

Discounted Installed Cost
Increase

Total NPV



### Figure 10.5.6. National Annual Total Installed E quipment and Operating Cost Savings for 8-Foot Slimline at CSL3 (Emerging Technol ogies, Roll-Up Scenario ) Discounted at 7 Percent per Year

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### 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,00020142017202020232026202920322035203820412044Millions 

### Discounted Operating Cost Savings

Discounted Installed Cost
Increase

Total NPV



### Figure 10.5.7. National Annual Total Installed E quipment and Operating Cost Savings for 8-Foot RDC HO at CSL3 (Existing Technologies, Shift Scenario) Discounted at 7 Percent per Year

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,00020142017202020232026202920322035203820412044Millions 

### Discounted Operating
Cost Savings

Discounted Installed Cost
Increase

Total NPV



### Figure 10.5.8. National Annual Total Installed E quipment and Operating Cost Savings for 8-Foot RDC HO at CSL3 (Emerging Technologies, Roll-Up Scenario) Discounted at 7 Percent per Year

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### 0 50 100 150 200 25020142017202020232026202920322035203820412044Millions Discounted Operating
Cost Savings

Discounted Installed Cost
Increase

Total NPV



### Figure 10.5.9. National Annual Total Installed E quipment and Operating Cost Savings for 4-Foot Miniature Bipin T5 Standard Output and High Output at CSL3 (Existing Technologies, Shift Scenario) Disc ounted at 7 Percent per Year

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 20020142017202020232026202920322035203820412044Millions Discounted Operating
Cost Savings

Discounted Installed Cost
Increase

Total NPV



### Figure 10.5.10. National Annual Total Installed E quipment and Operating Cost Savings for 4-Foot Miniature Bipin T5 Standard Output and High Output at CSL3 (Emerging Technologies, Roll-Up S cenario) Discounted at 7 Percent per Year

In most cases the operating cost savings, installed costs increases, and NPV all trend towards zero over time, reflecting the impacts of discounting.

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### NPV results are cumulative and shown as the discounted value of these savings in dollar terms. DOE uses national averages for key inputs such as electricity pricing and sector-specific point values for operating hours in calculating opera ting cost savings and inst alled cost increases. Thus, the NPV results are discrete point values rath er than a distribution of values as in the LCC and PBP analyses.

The present value of increased total installed costs is the total installed cost increase ( 

### i.e.
, the difference between the standards case and base case in given year), discounted to the present, and summed over the time period in which DOE evaluates the impact of standards ( 

### i.e. , from the effective date of standards, 2014 to 2044).

Savings are decreases in operating costs associated with higher efficiency ballasts purchased in the standards case compared to the base case. DOE calculated total annual operating cost savings as the difference betwee n total annual operating costs in the base case minus those in the standards case. Eq. 10.7 gives the total annual operating costs in each case.

In general, the NPV results at each candidate? standard level largely reflect the LCC savings at the corresponding efficiency leve ls. As discussed in chapter 8 (LCC and PBP analyses), for most ballast purchasing events and most baseline ballast designs, increasingefficiency levels generally result in increased LCC savings. Due to this general costeffectiveness of higher efficiency ballasts, th e existing technologies base-case forecast (which increases the affected stock and shipments) and the shift scenario (which results in the shipment of more high-efficiency ballasts) represent the high-range scenario for NPV.

10.5.4 Net Present Value Results

Table 10.5.4 and Table 10.5.5 show the NPV resu lts in tabular format, including the existing technologies/shift scenario and the emerging technologies/roll-up scenario, as in section Error! Reference source not found. . In these tables, NPV is presented at both 7- and 3-percent discount rates.

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### Table 10.5.4. Cumulative NPV Results for Ballasts Under the Existing Technologies, Shift Scenario (2014-2044)
CSL Ballast Product Class Percent NPV Discount * billion 2008$ 7 3 1 Two-Lamp Normal BF 4-Foot MBP IS & RS 9.046 18.490 Two-Lamp Normal BF 4-Foot MBP PS 0.276 0.872 Four-Lamp Normal BF 4-Foot MBP IS & RS -1.536 -3.062 Four-Lamp Normal BF 4-Foot MBP PS 0.143 0.459 Two-Lamp Normal BF 8-Foot RDC HO IS & RS 0.060 0.089 Two-Lamp Normal BF 8-Foot SP Slimline (T12 Baseline) 0.000 0.000 Two-Lamp Normal BF 8-Foot SP Slimline (T8 Baseline) 0.007 0.049 Two-Lamp Normal BF 4-Foot T5 Minibp SO 3.408 9.204 Two-Lamp 4-Foot T5 MiniBP HO 1.049 2.570 Two-Lamp Low BF 4-Foot MBP IS & RS Residential 0.000 -0.268 Four-Lamp Sign Ballasts 9.900 23.364 Total 22.353 51.770 2 Two-Lamp Normal BF 4-Foot MBP IS & RS 14.931 25.847 Two-Lamp Normal BF 8-Foot RDC HO IS & RS 0.091 0.134 Two-Lamp Normal BF 4-Foot T5 MiniBP SO 4.366 11.284 Two-Lamp 4-Foot T5 MiniBP HO 1.169 2.762 Two-Lamp Low BF 4-Foot MBP IS & RS Residential 0.000 -0.270 Total 20.557 39.757 3 Two-Lamp Normal BF 4-Foot MBP IS & RS 14.931 25.847 Total 14.945 25.877



### Table 10.5.5. Cumulative NPV Results for Ballas ts Under the Emerging Technologies, RollUp Scenario (2014-2044)
CSL Ballast Product Class Percent NPV Discount billion 2008$ 7 3 1 Two-Lamp Normal BF 4-Foot MBP IS & RS 0.000 0.000 Two-Lamp Normal BF 4-Foot MBP PS 0.181 0.520 Four-Lamp Normal BF 4-Foot MBP IS & RS -1.060 -1.945 Four-Lamp Normal BF 4-Foot MBP PS 0.088 0.256 Two-Lamp Normal BF 8-Foot RDC HO IS & RS 0.035 0.051 Two-Lamp Normal BF 8-Foot SP Slimline (T12 Baseline) 0.000 0.000 Two-Lamp Normal BF 8-Foot SP Slimline (T8 Baseline) 0.007 0.049 Two-Lamp Normal BF 4-Foot T5 MiniBP SO 1.633 4.035 Two-Lamp 4-Foot T5 MiniBP HO 0.822 2.010 Two-Lamp Low BF 4-Foot MBP IS & RS Residential -0.012 -0.042 Four-Lamp Sign Ballasts 9.900 23.364 Total 11.594 28.299 2 Two-Lamp Normal BF 4-Foot MBP IS & RS 2.830 5.736 Two-Lamp Normal BF 8-Foot RDC HO IS & RS 0.106 0.153 Two-Lamp Normal BF 4-Foot T5 MiniBP SO 2.667 6.345 Two-Lamp 4-Foot T5 MiniBP HO 1.169 2.762 Two-Lamp Low BF 4-Foot MBP IS & RS Residential (T12 Baseline) 0.000 -0.270 Total 6.773 14.725 3 Two-Lamp Normal BF 4-Foot MBP IS & RS 10.189 16.086 Total 10.189 16.086

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### REFERENCES

1. U.S. Department of Energy–E nergy Information Administration. 

### Annual Energy Outlook 2008 with Projections to 2030

. June 2008. Washington, D.C.
< http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/archive/aeo08/index.html >.

2. Greening, L.A., D.L. Greene, and C. Difiglio. 2000. Energy Efficiency and Consumption–The Rebound Effect: A Survey. 

### Energy Policy . 28: pp. 389–401.

3. U.S. Department of Energy–E nergy Information Administration. 

### Annual Energy Outlook 2009 with Projections to 2030

. March 2009. Washington, D.C.
< http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/aeoref_tab.html >.

4. U.S. Department of Energy–E nergy Information Administration. 

### Annual Energy Outlook 2009 with Projections to 2030 . Updated reference case. April 2009. Washington, D.C.

< http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/index.html >.

5. Office of Management and Budget. Circ ular A-4. September 2003. Washington, D.C.

< http://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/circulars/a004/a-4.pdf >.

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