CHAPTER 10. NATIONAL IMPACTS ANALYSIS 

TABLE OF CONTENTS
 

10.1 INTRODUCTION............................................................................................................. 10-1
 

10.2 BASE-CASE AND STANDARDS-CASE FORECASTED EFFICIENCY
 

DISTRIBUTIONS, BALLAST STOCKS, AND AVERAGE EFFICIENCY.................. 10-1
 

10.2.1 Base and Standards Case Efficiency Distributions............................................ 10-2
 

10.2.2 Installed Ballast Stock ..................................................................................... 10-13
 

10.2.3 Average Ballast Efficiency in the Stock.......................................................... 10-16
 

10.3 NATIONAL ENERGY SAVINGS................................................................................. 10-27
 

10.3.1 National Energy Savings Definition................................................................ 10-27
 

10.3.2 National Energy Savings Inputs ...................................................................... 10-28
 

10.3.2.1 Unit Energy Consumption (UEC)..................................................... 10-28
 

10.3.2.2 Ballast Stock ..................................................................................... 10-28
 

10.3.2.3 Site-to-Source Conversion Factors ................................................... 10-28
 

10.3.2.4 Interactions with Heating, Ventilation, and Air-Conditioning
 

(HVAC) Systems .............................................................................. 10-29
 

10.3.2.5 Rebound Rate.................................................................................... 10-29
 

10.4 NET PRESENT VALUE ................................................................................................ 10-30
 

10.4.1 Net Present Value Definition........................................................................... 10-30
 

10.4.2 Net Present Value Inputs ................................................................................. 10-31
 

10.4.2.1 Total Annual Installed Cost Increases .............................................. 10-31
 

10.4.2.2 Total Annual Operating Cost Savings .............................................. 10-31
 

10.4.2.3 Discount Factor................................................................................. 10-32
 

10.5 NATIONAL ENERGY SAVINGS AND NET PRESENT VALUE RESULTS ........... 10-32
 

10.5.1 National Energy Savings and Net Present Value Input Summary .................. 10-32
 

10.5.2 National Energy Savings Results .................................................................... 10-33
 

10.5.3 Net Present Value Analysis ............................................................................. 10-35
 

10.5.4 Net Present Value Results ............................................................................... 10-41
 

LIST OF TABLES 

Table 10.2.1. Ballasts Operating 4-Foot Medium Bipin (MBP) Lamps (Residential), Base 

Case and Standards Case Efficiency Distributions (Existing Technologies, Shift 

Scenario) ........................................................................................................................ 10-3 

Table 10.2.2. Ballasts Operating 4-Foot MBP Lamps (Residential), Base Case and 

Standards Case Efficiency Distributions (Existing Technologies, Roll-Up 

Scenario) ........................................................................................................................ 10-4 

Table 10.2.3. Ballasts Operating 4-Foot MBP Lamps (Residential), Base Case and 

Standards Case Efficiency Distributions (Emerging Technologies, Shift Scenario)..... 10-4 

Table 10.2.4. Ballasts Operating 4-Foot MBP Lamps (Residential), Base Case and 

Standards Case Efficiency Distributions (Emerging Technologies, Roll-Up 

Scenario) ........................................................................................................................ 10-5 

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EERE-2007-BT-STD-0016 COMMENT 25
 

Table 10.2.5. Ballasts Operating 4-Foot MBP Lamps (Commercial), Base Case and 

Standards Case Efficiency Distributions (Existing Technologies, Shift Scenario) ....... 10-5 

Table 10.2.6. Ballasts Operating 4-Foot MBP Lamps (Commercial), Base Case and 

Standards Case Efficiency Distributions (Existing Technologies, Roll-Up 

Scenario) ........................................................................................................................ 10-6 

Table 10.2.7. Ballasts Operating 4-Foot MBP Lamps (Commercial), Base Case and 

Standards Case Efficiency Distributions (Emerging Technologies, Shift Scenario)..... 10-6 

Table 10.2.8. Ballasts Operating 4-Foot MBP Lamps (Commercial), Base Case and 

Standards Case Efficiency Distributions (Emerging Technologies, Roll-Up 

Scenario) ........................................................................................................................ 10-7 

Table 10.2.9. Ballasts Operating 8-Foot Single Pin (Slimline) Lamps, Base Case and 

Standards Case Efficiency Distributions (Existing Technologies, Shift Scenario) ....... 10-7 

Table 10.2.10. Ballasts Operating 8-Foot Slimline Lamps, Base Case and Standards Case 

Efficiency Distributions (Existing Technologies, Roll-Up Scenario) ........................... 10-8 

Table 10.2.11. Ballasts Operating 8-Foot Slimline Lamps. Base Case and Standards Case 

Efficiency Distributions (Emerging Technologies, Shift Scenario) .............................. 10-8 

Table 10.2.12. Ballasts Operating 8-Foot Slimline Lamps, Base Case and Standards Case 

Efficiency Distributions (Emerging Technologies, Roll-Up Scenario)......................... 10-9 

Table 10.2.13. Ballasts Operating 8-Foot Recessed Double Contact (RDC) High Output 

(HO) Lamps, Base Case and Standards Case Efficiency Distributions (Existing 

Technologies, Shift Scenario)........................................................................................ 10-9 

Table 10.2.14. Ballasts Operating 8-Foot RDC HO Lamps, Base Case and Standards 

Case Efficiency Distributions (Existing Technologies, Roll-Up Scenario)................. 10-10 

Table 10.2.15. Ballasts Operating 8-Foot RDC HO Lamps, Base Case and Standards 

Case Efficiency Distributions (Emerging Technologies, Shift Scenario) ................... 10-10 

Table 10.2.16. Ballasts Operating 8-Foot RDC HO Lamps, Base Case and Standards 

Case Efficiency Distributions (Emerging Technologies, Roll-Up Scenario) .............. 10-11 

Table 10.2.17. Ballasts Operating 4-Foot T5 Miniature Bipin (MiniBP) Standard Output 

(SO) and HO Lamps, Base Case and Standards Case Efficiency Distributions 

(Existing Technologies, Shift Scenario) ...................................................................... 10-11 

Table 10.2.18. Ballasts Operating 4-Foot T5 MiniBP SO and HO Lamps, Base Case and 

Standards Case Efficiency Distributions (Existing Technologies, Roll-Up 

Scenario) ...................................................................................................................... 10-12 

Table 10.2.19. Ballasts Operating 4-Foot T5 MiniBP SO and HO Lamps, Base Case and 

Standards Case Efficiency Distributions (Emerging Technologies, Shift Scenario)... 10-12 

Table 10.2.20. Ballasts Operating 4-Foot T5 MiniBP SO and HO Lamps, Base Case and 

Standards Case Efficiency Distributions (Emerging Technologies, Roll-Up 

Scenario) ...................................................................................................................... 10-13 

Table 10.3.1 National Energy Saving Inputs .......................................................................... 10-28 

Table 10.3.2 Site-to-Source Conversion Factors .................................................................... 10-29 

Table 10.4.1 Net Present Value Inputs ................................................................................... 10-31 

Table 10.5.1. National Energy Saving and Net Present Value Inputs ..................................... 10-33 

Table 10.5.2. Cumulative National Energy Savings for Ballasts under the Existing, Shift 

Scenario (2014-2044)................................................................................................... 10-34 

Table 10.5.3. Cumulative National Energy Savings for Ballasts under the Emerging, 

Roll-Up Scenario (2014-2044) .................................................................................... 10-35 

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Table 10.5.4. Cumulative NPV Results for Ballasts Under the Existing Technologies, 

Shift Scenario (2014-2044).......................................................................................... 10-42 

Table 10.5.5. Cumulative NPV Results for Ballasts Under the Emerging Technologies, 

Roll-Up Scenario (2014-2044) .................................................................................... 10-42 

LIST OF FIGURES 

Figure 10.2.1. 4-Foot MBP (Residential) Installed Ballast Stock (CSL 3) ............................. 10-14 

Figure 10.2.2. 4-Foot MBP (Commercial) Installed Ballast Stock (CSL 3)............................ 10-14 

Figure 10.2.3. 8-Foot Slimline Installed Ballast Stock (CSL 3).............................................. 10-15 

Figure 10.2.4. 8-Foot RDC HO Installed Ballast Stock (CSL 3) ............................................ 10-15 

Figure 10.2.5. 4-Foot T5 MiniBP SO and HO Installed Ballast Stock (CSL 3)...................... 10-16 

Figure 10.2.6. Average Efficiency of Stock, Ballasts Operating 4-Foot MBP Lamps 

(Residential, Existing Technologies, Shift Scenario)* ................................................ 10-17 

Figure 10.2.7. Average Efficiency of Stock, Ballasts Operating 4-Foot MBP Lamps 

Figure 10.2.8. Average Efficiency of Stock, Ballasts Operating 4-Foot MBP Lamps 

Figure 10.2.9. Average Efficiency of Stock, Ballasts Operating 4-Foot MBP Lamps 

Figure 10.2.10. Average Efficiency of Stock, Ballasts Operating 4-Foot MBP Lamps 

Figure 10.2.11. Average Efficiency of Stock, Ballasts Operating 4-Foot MBP Lamps 

Figure 10.2.12. Average Efficiency of Stock, Ballasts Operating 4-Foot MBP Lamps 

Figure 10.2.13. Average Efficiency of Stock, Ballasts Operating 4-Foot MBP Lamps 

Figure 10.2.14. Average Efficiency of Stock, Ballasts Operating 8-Foot Slimline Lamps 

Figure 10.2.15. Average Efficiency of Stock, Ballasts Operating 8-Foot Slimline Lamps 

Figure 10.2.16. Average Efficiency of Stock, Ballasts Operating 8-Foot Slimline Lamps 

Figure 10.2.17. Average Efficiency of Stock, Ballasts Operating 8-Foot Slimline Lamps 

Figure 10.2.18. Average Efficiency of Stock, Ballasts Operating 8-Foot RDC HO Lamps 

Figure 10.2.19. Average Efficiency of Stock, Ballasts Operating 8-Foot RDC HO Lamps 

Figure 10.2.20. Average Efficiency of Stock, Ballasts Operating 8-Foot RDC HO Lamps 

Figure 10.2.21. Average Efficiency of Stock, Ballasts Operating 8-Foot RDC HO Lamps 

Figure 10.2.22. Average Efficiency of Stock, Ballasts Operating 4-Foot T5 MiniBP SO 

(Residential, Existing Technologies, Roll-Up Scenario)*........................................... 10-17 

(Residential, Emerging Technologies, Roll-Up Scenario)* ........................................ 10-18 

(Residential, Emerging Technologies, Shift Scenario)*.............................................. 10-18 

(Commercial, Existing Technologies, Shift Scenario)* .............................................. 10-19 

(Commercial, Existing Technologies, Roll-Up Scenario) ........................................... 10-19 

(Commercial, Emerging Technologies, Roll-Up Scenario)......................................... 10-20 

(Commercial, Emerging Technologies, Shift Scenario)*............................................ 10-20 

(Existing Technologies, Shift Scenario)* .................................................................... 10-21 

(Existing Technologies, Roll-Up Scenario)*............................................................... 10-21 

(Emerging Technologies, Roll-Up Scenario)* ............................................................ 10-22 

(Emerging Technologies, Shift Scenario)*.................................................................. 10-22 

(Existing Technologies, Shift Scenario)* .................................................................... 10-23 

(Existing Technologies, Roll-Up Scenario)*............................................................... 10-23 

(Emerging Technologies, Roll-Up Scenario)* ............................................................ 10-24 

(Emerging Technologies, Shift Scenario)*.................................................................. 10-24 

and HO Lamps (Existing Technologies, Shift Scenario)*........................................... 10-25 

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EERE-2007-BT-STD-0016 COMMENT 25
 

Figure 10.2.23. Average Efficiency of Stock, Ballasts Operating 4-Foot T5 MiniBP SO 

and HO Lamps (Existing Technologies, Roll-Up Scenario)* ..................................... 10-25 

Figure 10.2.24. Average Efficiency of Stock, Ballasts Operating 4-Foot T5 MiniBP SO 

and HO Lamps (Emerging Technologies, Roll-Up Scenario)*................................... 10-26 

Figure 10.2.25. Average Efficiency of Stock, Ballasts Operating 4-Foot T5 MiniBP SO 

and HO Lamps (Emerging Technologies, Shift Scenario)* ........................................ 10-26 

Figure 10.5.1. National Annual Total Installed Equipment and Operating Cost Savings 

for 4-Foot MBP (Residential) at CSL3 (Existing Technologies, Shift Scenario) 

Discounted at 7 Percent per Year................................................................................. 10-36 

Figure 10.5.2. National Annual Total Installed Equipment and Operating Cost Savings 

for 4-Foot MBP (Residential) at CSL3 (Emerging Technologies, Roll-Up 

Scenario) Discounted at 7 Percent per Year ................................................................ 10-36 

Figure 10.5.3. National Annual Total Installed Equipment and Operating Cost Savings 

for 4-Foot MBP (Commercial) at CSL3 (Existing Technologies, Shift Scenario) 

Discounted at 7 Percent per Year................................................................................. 10-37 

Figure 10.5.4. National Annual Total Installed Equipment and Operating Cost Savings 

for 4-Foot MBP (Commercial) at CSL3 (Existing Technologies, Shift Scenario) 

Discounted at 7 Percent per Year................................................................................. 10-37 

Figure 10.5.5. National Annual Total Installed Equipment and Operating Cost Savings 

for 8-Foot Slimline at CSL3 (Existing Technologies, Shift Scenario) Discounted 

at 7 Percent per Year.................................................................................................... 10-38 

Figure 10.5.6. National Annual Total Installed Equipment and Operating Cost Savings 

for 8-Foot Slimline at CSL3 (Emerging Technologies, Roll-Up Scenario) 

Discounted at 7 Percent per Year................................................................................. 10-38 

Figure 10.5.7. National Annual Total Installed Equipment and Operating Cost Savings 

for 8-Foot RDC HO at CSL3 (Existing Technologies, Shift Scenario) Discounted 

at 7 Percent per Year.................................................................................................... 10-39 

Figure 10.5.8. National Annual Total Installed Equipment and Operating Cost Savings 

for 8-Foot RDC HO at CSL3 (Emerging Technologies, Roll-Up Scenario) 

Discounted at 7 Percent per Year................................................................................. 10-39 

Figure 10.5.9. National Annual Total Installed Equipment and Operating Cost Savings 

for 4-Foot Miniature Bipin T5 Standard Output and High Output at CSL3 

(Existing Technologies, Shift Scenario) Discounted at 7 Percent per Year ................ 10-40 

Figure 10.5.10. National Annual Total Installed Equipment and Operating Cost Savings 

for 4-Foot Miniature Bipin T5 Standard Output and High Output at CSL3 

(Emerging Technologies, Roll-Up Scenario) Discounted at 7 Percent per Year ........ 10-40 

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EERE-2007-BT-STD-0016 COMMENT 25
 

 

 

CHAPTER 10. NATIONAL IMPACTS ANALYSIS 

10.1 INTRODUCTION 

This chapter describes the method for estimating the national impacts of candidate standard 

levels (CSLs) for analyzed fluorescent lamp ballasts (hereafter “ballasts”). Because ballasts are 

designed to operate fluorescent lamps, DOE chooses the most common fluorescent lamp used with 

each ballast to develop representative lamp-and-ballast systems. Fluorescent lamps will not be 

regulated under the proposed amended energy conservation standards for ballasts; however, the 

characteristics of complete lamp-and-ballast systems (e.g., energy consumption, installed cost, etc.) 

must be considered for estimating national impacts of ballast CSLs. 

In the national impact analysis (NIA), the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) assesses the 

cumulative national energy savings (NES) and the cumulative national economic impacts of 

CSLs. DOE measures energy savings as the cumulative quads of energy a CSL is expected to 

save the Nation. DOE measures economic impacts as the net present value (NPV) in dollars of 

total customer costs and savings expected to result from a CSL. The analysis period over which 

DOE calculates the NPV and NES is from 2014 to 2044. Results of the NIA described in this 

chapter include (1) national energy consumption and savings; (2) monetary value of energy 

savings to the Nation as a result of standards; (3) increased total installed costs to the Nation as a 

result of standards; and (4) the NPV of energy savings (the difference between the present 

monetary values of energy savings and increased total installed costs). 

DOE determines both the NPV and NES for each CSL and each representative product 

class it selects in the engineering analysis (preliminary TSD chapter 5). In this rulemaking, DOE 

considers up to three CSLs for each of the representative ballast product classes. 

DOE performs all NIA calculations using a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet, available at 

www.eere.energy.gov/buildings/appliance_standards/residential/fluorescent_lamp_ballasts.html. 

Appendix 10A provides instructions for using the spreadsheet. 

The following sections describe in detail the methodology and inputs for the NIA. 

Several NIA inputs, including per-unit costs, per-unit energy consumption, and national 

shipments, are discussed in other analyses. In describing the inputs to the NIA, this chapter 

references those analyses and presents new information on installed stock. Section 10.2 discusses 

DOE’s ballast shipment forecasts by CSL, the installed stock of ballasts, and the mix of 

efficiencies of that stock. Section 10.3 discusses DOE’s calculation of national energy 

consumption in the base and standards cases, and the resulting difference in NES between these 

cases. Section 10.4 discusses the NPV calculation. Section 10.5 presents the NES and NPV 

results by representative product class. 

10.2	 BASE-CASE AND STANDARDS-CASE FORECASTED EFFICIENCY 

DISTRIBUTIONS, BALLAST STOCKS, AND AVERAGE EFFICIENCY 

The characteristics of DOE’s shipment forecasts (such as equipment costs and operating 

costs) and projected ballast stocks (such as average efficiency and energy consumption) are key 

10-1 

EERE-2007-BT-STD-0016 COMMENT 25
 

 

aspects of DOE’s NES and NPV estimates. This section describes these key characteristics of 

stock and shipments as they relate to the NES and NPV. Note that the representative product 

classes addressed individually in the NES and NPV results are aggregated in broader groupings 

for describing stock and shipment characteristics (e.g., ballasts operating T12 and T8 lamps are 

grouped together by lamp length and lamp base). 

For example, the projected distribution of ballast efficiencies shipped and ballast 

efficiencies in stock are key factors in determining the NPV. Two inputs to the NPV are the perunit total installed cost and per-unit annual operating cost. The per-unit total installed cost often 

varies with the efficiency of ballasts shipped. Therefore, when higher efficiency ballasts are 

shipped, higher installed costs are often incurred. Section 8.2.2 of the preliminary TSD chapter 8 

describes how per-unit total installed costs vary as a function of efficiency for each lamp ballast. 

Per-unit annual energy consumption is a key input to the NPV (as an input to the per-unit 

operating cost) and NES. The per-unit annual energy consumption is a function of lamp-andballast system characteristics in the installed stock. The total installed stock of lamp-and-ballast 

systems is used to determine total annual energy consumption, a key input into the NES and 

NPV calculations. 

Also important to determining NES and NPV is the average efficiency of the lamp ballast 

stock. The engineering analysis (preliminary TSD chapter 5) discusses the relationship between 

lamp-and-ballast system design, system input power and ballast efficiency. The energy use 

characterization (preliminary TSD chapter 6) describes how the per-unit energy consumption 

varies as a function of system input power and market sector application for each lamp-andballast system design. 

Sections 10.3.2 and 10.4.2 discuss inputs to calculation of the NES and NPV in further 

detail. 

The following sections detail the forecasted distribution of efficiencies, installed ballast 

stocks, and average efficiency of those stocks in the base and standards cases. 

10.2.1 Base and Standards Case Efficiency Distributions 

Because the end-user price of ballasts varies with efficiency level, the base and standards 

case forecasted efficiency distributions of shipments affect the average total installed cost per 

unit. Generally, as the efficiency of a lamp-and-ballast system design increases, the total installed 

cost increases as well. In addition, the base-case and standards-case efficiency distributions 

affect the average ballast efficiency in the installed stock, an indication of annual energy 

consumption. For ballasts, DOE first presented the market share apportionments in the base case 

in chapter 9. These market share apportionments characterize the shipments of ballasts for each 

analyzed product class. The forecasted efficiency distributions of shipments for ballasts depend 

directly on these apportionments and the total shipments of a particular ballast type in each year 

of the analysis period. 

Table 10.2.1 through Table 10.2.20 show the percentage market share of shipments of 

ballasts of different CSLs, where the efficiencies correspond to particular CSLs. The table also 

illustrates how this mix of efficiencies changes over time, from 2014 to 2044. 

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EERE-2007-BT-STD-0016 COMMENT 25
 

 

There are two tables per representative ballast product class: one depicting the efficiency 

mixes in the existing technologies shift scenario and one depicting those in the emerging 

technologies roll-up scenario. Emerging technologies scenarios address the penetration of 

particular ballast markets by light-emitting diode (LED) products; chapter 9 discusses these 

scenarios in further detail. Because consumers in the shift scenario make purchase decisions 

based more on the energy savings of a particular ballast design, the shift scenario often presents a 

more aggressive forecasted efficiency distribution. For the roll-up scenario, DOE assumed that 

when possible, consumers will purchase the lowest first-cost ballast option which, in many cases, 

is often at the minimum allowed efficiency level. 

The existing and emerging technologies scenarios affect the number of shipments by 

product class, without regard to efficiency level. Mostly, these scenarios do not affect the 

efficiency distributions within a given product class. In a few cases, these scenarios contribute to 

incidental changes in efficiency distributions through a complex interaction with the substitution 

trends shown in chapter 9, table 9.2. Specifically, because in the emerging technologies case 

shipments of some product classes are smaller than they are in existing technologies, any 

substitution trends based on these product classes are smaller as well. To the extent that these 

substitution trends affect the efficiency distributions of particular product classes, this effect is 

smaller in the emerging technologies case than in the existing technologies case. 

Table 10.2.1. Ballasts Operating 4-Foot Medium Bipin (MBP) Lamps (Residential), Base 

Case and Standards Case Efficiency Distributions (Existing Technologies, Shift Scenario) 

Year CSL Proportions of All 4-Foot MBP (Residential) Ballasts Shipped 

% 

Base Case Standards Case CSLs 

1 2 3 

2014 Baseline 5 5 5 5 

1 68 57 57 57 

2 26 38 38 38 

3 0 0 0 0 

Total 100 100 100 100 

2029 Baseline 0 0 0 0 

1 73 0 0 0 

2 27 100 100 100 

3 0 0 0 0 

Total 100 100 100 100 

2044 Baseline 0 0 0 0 

1 73 0 0 0 

2 27 100 100 100 

3 0 0 0 0 

Total 100 100 100 100 

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EERE-2007-BT-STD-0016 COMMENT 25
 

Table 10.2.2. Ballasts Operating 4-Foot MBP Lamps (Residential), Base Case and 

Standards Case Efficiency Distributions (Existing Technologies, Roll-Up Scenario) 

Year CSL Proportions of All 4-Foot MBP (Residential) Ballasts Shipped 

% 

Base Case Standards Case CSLs 

1 2 3 

2014 Baseline 5 5 5 5 

1 68 68 57 57 

2 26 26 38 38 

3 0 0 0 0 

Total 100 100 100 100 

2029 Baseline 0 0 0 0 

1 73 73 0 0 

2 27 27 100 100 

3 0 0 0 0 

Total 100 100 100 100 

2044 Baseline 0 0 0 0 

1 73 73 0 0 

2 27 27 100 100 

3 0 0 0 0 

Total 100 100 100 100 

Table 10.2.3. Ballasts Operating 4-Foot MBP Lamps (Residential), Base Case and 

Standards Case Efficiency Distributions (Emerging Technologies, Shift Scenario) 

Year CSL Proportions of All 4-Foot MBP (Residential) Ballasts Shipped 

% 

Base Case Standards Case CSLs 

1 2 3 

2014 Baseline 5 5 5 5 

1 68 57 57 57 

2 26 38 38 38 

3 0 0 0 0 

Total 100 100 100 100 

2029 Baseline 0 0 0 0 

1 73 0 0 0 

2 27 100 100 100 

3 0 0 0 0 

Total 100 100 100 100 

2044 Baseline 0 0 0 0 

1 73 0 0 0 

2 27 100 100 100 

3 0 0 0 0 

Total 100 100 100 100 

10-4 

EERE-2007-BT-STD-0016 COMMENT 25
 

Table 10.2.4. Ballasts Operating 4-Foot MBP Lamps (Residential), Base Case and 

Standards Case Efficiency Distributions (Emerging Technologies, Roll-Up Scenario) 

Year CSL Proportions of All 4-Foot MBP (Residential) Ballasts Shipped 

% 

Base Case Standards Case CSLs 

1 2 3 

2014 Baseline 5 5 5 5 

1 68 68 57 57 

2 26 26 38 38 

3 0 0 0 0 

Total 100 100 100 100 

2029 Baseline 0 0 0 0 

1 73 73 0 0 

2 27 27 100 100 

3 0 0 0 0 

Total 100 100 100 100 

2044 Baseline 0 0 0 0 

1 73 73 0 0 

2 27 27 100 100 

3 0 0 0 0 

Total 100 100 100 100 

Table 10.2.5. Ballasts Operating 4-Foot MBP Lamps (Commercial), Base Case and 

Standards Case Efficiency Distributions (Existing Technologies, Shift Scenario) 

Year CSL Proportions of All 4-Foot MBP (Commercial) Ballasts Shipped 

% 

Base Case Standards Case CSLs 

1 2 3 

2014 Baseline 26 22 22 22 

1 55 52 52 52 

2 9 15 8 8 

3 9 11 19 19 

Total 100 100 100 100 

2029 Baseline 28 0 0 0 

1 54 40 40 40 

2 9 29 0 0 

3 9 31 60 60 

Total 100 100 100 100 

2044 Baseline 33 0 0 0 

1 52 47 47 47 

2 8 0 0 0 

3 8 53 53 53 

Total 100 100 100 100 

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EERE-2007-BT-STD-0016 COMMENT 25
 

Table 10.2.6. Ballasts Operating 4-Foot MBP Lamps (Commercial), Base Case and 

Standards Case Efficiency Distributions (Existing Technologies, Roll-Up Scenario) 

Year CSL Proportions of All 4-Foot MBP (Commercial) Ballasts Shipped 

% 

Base Case Standards Case CSLs 

1 2 3 

2014 Baseline 26 22 22 22 

1 55 60 52 52 

2 9 9 17 8 

3 9 9 9 19 

Total 100 100 100 100 

2029 Baseline 28 0 0 0 

1 54 82 40 40 

2 9 9 51 0 

3 9 9 9 60 

Total 100 100 100 100 

2044 Baseline 33 0 0 0 

1 52 84 47 47 

2 8 8 45 0 

3 8 8 8 53 

Total 100 100 100 100 

Table 10.2.7. Ballasts Operating 4-Foot MBP Lamps (Commercial), Base Case and 

Standards Case Efficiency Distributions (Emerging Technologies, Shift Scenario) 

Year CSL Proportions of All 4-Foot MBP (Commercial) Ballasts Shipped 

% 

Base Case Standards Case CSLs 

1 2 3 

2014 Baseline 26 22 22 22 

1 55 52 52 52 

2 9 15 8 8 

3 9 11 18 18 

Total 100 100 100 100 

2029 Baseline 27 0 0 0 

1 55 40 40 40 

2 9 31 0 0 

3 9 29 60 60 

Total 100 100 100 100 

2044 Baseline 31 0 0 0 

1 52 45 45 45 

2 8 0 0 0 

3 8 55 55 55 

Total 100 100 100 100 

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EERE-2007-BT-STD-0016 COMMENT 25
 

Table 10.2.8. Ballasts Operating 4-Foot MBP Lamps (Commercial), Base Case and 

Standards Case Efficiency Distributions (Emerging Technologies, Roll-Up Scenario)
 

Year CSL Proportions of All 4-Foot MBP (Commercial) Ballasts Shipped 

% 

Base Case Standards Case CSLs 

1 2 3 

2014 Baseline 26 22 22 22 

1 55 60 52 52 

2 9 9 17 8 

3 9 9 9 18 

Total 100 100 100 100 

2029 Baseline 27 0 0 0 

1 55 82 40 40 

2 9 9 51 0 

3 9 9 9 60 

Total 100 100 100 100 

2044 Baseline 31 0 0 0 

1 52 84 45 45 

2 8 8 47 0 

3 8 8 8 55 

Total 100 100 100 100 

Table 10.2.9. Ballasts Operating 8-Foot Single Pin (Slimline) Lamps, Base Case and 

Standards Case Efficiency Distributions (Existing Technologies, Shift Scenario) 

Year CSL Proportions of All 8-Foot Slimline Ballasts Shipped 

% 

Base Case Standards Case CSLs 

1 2 3 

2014 Baseline 70 59 59 59 

1 30 41 41 41 

2 0 0 0 0 

3 0 0 0 0 

Total 100 100 100 100 

2029 Baseline 74 0 0 0 

1 26 100 100 100 

2 0 0 0 0 

3 0 0 0 0 

Total 100 100 100 100 

2044 Baseline 76 0 0 0 

1 24 100 100 100 

2 0 0 0 0 

3 0 0 0 0 

Total 100 100 100 100 

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EERE-2007-BT-STD-0016 COMMENT 25
 

Table 10.2.10. Ballasts Operating 8-Foot Slimline Lamps, Base Case and Standards Case 

Efficiency Distributions (Existing Technologies, Roll-Up Scenario) 

Year CSL Proportions of All 8-Foot Slimline Ballasts Shipped 

% 

Base Case Standards Case CSLs 

1 2 3 

2014 Baseline 70 59 59 59 

1 30 41 41 41 

2 0 0 0 0 

3 0 0 0 0 

Total 100 100 100 100 

2029 Baseline 74 0 0 0 

1 26 100 100 100 

2 0 0 0 0 

3 0 0 0 0 

Total 100 100 100 100 

2044 Baseline 76 0 0 0 

1 24 100 100 100 

2 0 0 0 0 

3 0 0 0 0 

Total 100 100 100 100 

Table 10.2.11. Ballasts Operating 8-Foot Slimline Lamps. Base Case and Standards Case 

Efficiency Distributions (Emerging Technologies, Shift Scenario) 

Year CSL Proportions of All 8-Foot Slimline Ballasts Shipped 

% 

Base Case Standards Case CSLs 

1 2 3 

2014 Baseline 70 59 59 59 

1 30 41 41 41 

2 0 0 0 0 

3 0 0 0 0 

Total 100 100 100 100 

2029 Baseline 74 0 0 0 

1 26 100 100 100 

2 0 0 0 0 

3 0 0 0 0 

Total 100 100 100 100 

2044 Baseline 76 0 0 0 

1 24 100 100 100 

2 0 0 0 0 

3 0 0 0 0 

Total 100 100 100 100 

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EERE-2007-BT-STD-0016 COMMENT 25
 

Table 10.2.12. Ballasts Operating 8-Foot Slimline Lamps, Base Case and Standards Case 

Efficiency Distributions (Emerging Technologies, Roll-Up Scenario) 

Year CSL Proportions of All 8-Foot Slimline Ballasts Shipped 

% 

Base Case Standards Case CSLs 

1 2 3 

2014 Baseline 70 59 59 59 

1 30 41 41 41 

2 0 0 0 0 

3 0 0 0 0 

Total 100 100 100 100 

2029 Baseline 74 0 0 0 

1 26 100 100 100 

2 0 0 0 0 

3 0 0 0 0 

Total 100 100 100 100 

2044 Baseline 76 0 0 0 

1 24 100 100 100 

2 0 0 0 0 

3 0 0 0 0 

Total 100 100 100 100 

Table 10.2.13. Ballasts Operating 8-Foot Recessed Double Contact (RDC) High Output 

(HO) Lamps, Base Case and Standards Case Efficiency Distributions (Existing 

Technologies, Shift Scenario) 

Year CSL Proportions of All 8-Foot RDC HO Ballasts Shipped 

% 

Base Case Standards Case CSLs 

1 2 3 

2014 Baseline 78 65 65 65 

1 19 33 32 32 

2 1 1 2 1 

3 1 2 2 2 

Total 100 100 100 100 

2029 Baseline 79 0 0 0 

1 20 99 99 99 

2 1 0 0 0 

3 0 1 1 1 

Total 100 100 100 100 

2044 Baseline 80 0 0 0 

1 20 100 100 100 

2 0 0 0 0 

3 0 0 0 0 

Total 100 100 100 100 

10-9 

EERE-2007-BT-STD-0016 COMMENT 25
 

Table 10.2.14. Ballasts Operating 8-Foot RDC HO Lamps, Base Case and Standards Case 

Efficiency Distributions (Existing Technologies, Roll-Up Scenario) 

Year CSL Proportions of All 8-Foot RDC HO Ballasts Shipped 

% 

Base Case Standards Case CSLs 

1 2 3 

2014 Baseline 78 65 65 65 

1 19 33 32 32 

2 1 2 1 1 

3 1 1 2 2 

Total 100 100 100 100 

2029 Baseline 79 0 0 0 

1 20 99 99 99 

2 1 1 0 0 

3 0 0 1 1 

Total 100 100 100 100 

2044 Baseline 80 0 0 0 

1 20 100 100 100 

2 0 0 0 0 

3 0 0 0 0 

Total 100 100 100 100 

Table 10.2.15. Ballasts Operating 8-Foot RDC HO Lamps, Base Case and Standards Case 

Efficiency Distributions (Emerging Technologies, Shift Scenario) 

Year CSL Proportions of All 8-Foot RDC HO Ballasts Shipped 

% 

Base Case Standards Case CSLs 

1 2 3 

2014 Baseline 78 65 65 65 

1 19 33 32 32 

2 1 1 2 1 

3 1 2 2 2 

Total 100 100 100 100 

2029 Baseline 79 0 0 0 

1 20 99 99 99 

2 1 0 0 0 

3 0 1 1 1 

Total 100 100 100 100 

2044 Baseline 80 0 0 0 

1 20 100 100 100 

2 0 0 0 0 

3 0 0 0 0 

Total 100 100 100 100 

10-10 

EERE-2007-BT-STD-0016 COMMENT 25
 

Table 10.2.16. Ballasts Operating 8-Foot RDC HO Lamps, Base Case and Standards Case 

Efficiency Distributions (Emerging Technologies, Roll-Up Scenario) 

Year CSL Proportions of All 8-Foot RDC HO Ballasts Shipped 

% 

Base Case Standards Case CSLs 

1 2 3 

2014 Baseline 78 65 65 65 

1 19 33 32 32 

2 1 2 1 1 

3 1 1 2 2 

 Total 100 100 100 100 

2029 Baseline 79 0 0 0 

1 20 99 99 99 

2 1 1 0 0 

3 0 0 1 1 

Total 100 100 100 100 

2044 Baseline 80 0 0 0 

1 20 100 100 100 

2 0 0 0 0 

3 0 0 0 0 

Total 100 100 100 100 

Table 10.2.17. Ballasts Operating 4-Foot T5 Miniature Bipin (MiniBP) Standard Output 

(SO) and HO Lamps, Base Case and Standards Case Efficiency Distributions (Existing 

Technologies, Shift Scenario) 

Year CSL Proportions of All 4-Foot MiniBP SO and HO Ballasts Shipped 

% 

Base Case Standards Case CSLs 

1 2 3 

2014 Baseline 69 49 49 49 

1 16 31 11 11 

2 16 20 40 40 

3 0 0 0 0 

Total 100 100 100 100 

2029 Baseline 69 0 0 0 

1 16 47 0 0 

2 16 53 100 100 

3 0 0 0 0 

Total 100 100 100 100 

2044 Baseline 69 0 0 0 

1 16 18 0 0 

2 16 82 100 100 

3 0 0 0 0 

Total 100 100 100 100 

10-11 

EERE-2007-BT-STD-0016 COMMENT 25
 

Table 10.2.18. Ballasts Operating 4-Foot T5 MiniBP SO and HO Lamps, Base Case and 

Standards Case Efficiency Distributions (Existing Technologies, Roll-Up Scenario) 

Year CSL Proportions of All 4-Foot MiniBP SO and HO Ballasts Shipped 

% 

Base Case Standards Case CSLs 

1 2 3 

2014 Baseline 69 49 49 49 

1 16 35 11 11 

2 16 16 40 40 

3 0 0 0 0 

Total 100 100 100 100 

2029 Baseline 69 0 0 0 

1 16 85 0 0 

2 16 16 100 100 

3 0 0 0 0 

Total 100 100 100 100 

2044 Baseline 69 0 0 0 

1 16 85 0 0 

2 16 16 100 100 

3 0 0 0 0 

Total 100 100 100 100 

Table 10.2.19. Ballasts Operating 4-Foot T5 MiniBP SO and HO Lamps, Base Case and 

Standards Case Efficiency Distributions (Emerging Technologies, Shift Scenario) 

Year CSL Proportions of All 4-Foot MiniBP SO and HO Ballasts Shipped 

% 

Base Case Standards Case CSLs 

1 2 3 

2014 Baseline 69 50 50 50 

1 16 30 11 11 

2 16 20 39 39 

3 0 0 0 0 

Total 100 100 100 100 

2029 Baseline 69 0 0 0 

1 16 47 0 0 

2 16 53 100 100 

3 0 0 0 0 

Total 100 100 100 100 

2044 Baseline 69 0 0 0 

1 16 16 0 0 

2 16 84 100 100 

3 0 0 0 0 

Total 100 100 100 100 

10-12 

EERE-2007-BT-STD-0016 COMMENT 25
 

 

Table 10.2.20. Ballasts Operating 4-Foot T5 MiniBP SO and HO Lamps, Base Case and 

Standards Case Efficiency Distributions (Emerging Technologies, Roll-Up Scenario) 

Year CSL Proportions of All 4-Foot MiniBP SO and HO Ballasts Shipped 

% 

Base Case Standards Case CSLs 

1 2 3 

2014 Baseline 69 50 50 50 

1 16 35 11 11 

2 16 16 39 39 

3 0 0 0 0 

Total 100 100 100 100 

2029 Baseline 69 0 0 0 

1 16 85 0 0 

2 16 16 100 100 

3 0 0 0 0 

Total 100 100 100 100 

2044 Baseline 69 0 0 0 

1 16 85 0 0 

2 16 16 100 100 

3 0 0 0 0 

Total 100 100 100 100 

10.2.2 Installed Ballast Stock 

The installed ballast stock in a given year is the total number of ballasts shipped that year 

and in prior years that are still operating. The NES model tracks the ballasts shipped each year, 

and ballasts are retired when they reach the end of their lifetime. From this information and the 

shipments forecasts presented in chapter 9, DOE established the installed ballast stock profile for 

all analyzed ballast product classes. Figure 10.2.1 through Figure 10.2.5 show these ballast 

stocks in the base case and standards case for CSL3 under the same pair of scenarios analyzed 

throughout this chapter: the existing technologies shift scenario and the emerging technologies 

roll-up scenario. At CSL 3, the roll-up and shift scenarios are the same: both scenarios assume 

that the entire market moves to CSL 3, or the highest efficiency level available for product 

classes that do not have an available CSL 3 efficiency level option. The difference between the 

emerging technologies and existing technologies scenarios, as noted earlier, is that shipments are 

smaller in the emerging technologies case for affected product classes. In the following figures, 

where the existing technologies shift scenario differs from the emerging technologies roll-up 

scenario it is because of this smaller number of shipments. However, not all product classes are 

assumed to experience penetration by LED products in the emerging technologies scenario, 

which results in identical stocks and overlapping curves in some figures (e.g., Figure 10.2.3). 

For most types of ballasts, installed stock increases over time, particularly in the Existing 

Technologies scenario. However, some ballast types experience a decline in stocks over the 

analysis period due to growing substitution for other ballast types as shown in chapter 9, 

table 9.2. For example, the market for 8-foot RDC HO ballasts for general lighting applications 

is assumed to decline over the analysis period; however, T12 RDC HO cold temperature/sign 

ballasts included in the same product grouping dominate the overall stock, and drive its growth 

(Figure 10.2.4). 

10-13 

EERE-2007-BT-STD-0016 COMMENT 25
 

Figure 10.2.1. 4-Foot MBP (Residential) Installed Ballast Stock (CSL 3) 

Figure 10.2.2. 4-Foot MBP (Commercial) Installed Ballast Stock (CSL 3) 

10-14
 

EERE-2007-BT-STD-0016 COMMENT 25
 

Figure 10.2.3. 8-Foot Slimline Installed Ballast Stock (CSL 3) 

Figure 10.2.4. 8-Foot RDC HO Installed Ballast Stock (CSL 3) 

10-15
 

EERE-2007-BT-STD-0016 COMMENT 25
 

Figure 10.2.5. 4-Foot T5 MiniBP SO and HO Installed Ballast Stock (CSL 3) 

10.2.3 Average Ballast Efficiency in the Stock 

As discussed earlier, the average efficiency of ballast stocks can be an indication of the 

energy consumption, and is an important input to both the NPV and NES calculations. Figure 

10.2.6 through Figure 10.2.25 present the average efficiency forecasts of ballast stocks (as 

represented by ballast efficacy factor, BEF) in the base case and standards case for both the 

existing technologies/shift, existing technologies/roll-up, emerging technologies/roll-up, and 

emerging technologies/shift scenarios for each product class. Each figure presents the 

efficiencies at multiple CSLs. While CSLs vary from zero (the base case) to three, some 

representative product classes have fewer than all four possible CSLs. As a result, in some cases 

two or more CSLs may yield the same average ballast efficiency, which results in overlapping 

curves in the figures. These figures’ titles are noted with a “*”. 

10-16 

EERE-2007-BT-STD-0016 COMMENT 25
 

1.44

1.45

1.46

1.47

1.48

1.49

1.5

1.51

2014201620182020202220242026202820302032203420362038204020422044

Average BEF

Base Case

CSL 1

CSL 2

CSL 3

Figure 10.2.6. Average Efficiency of Stock, Ballasts Operating 4-Foot MBP Lamps 

(Residential, Existing Technologies, Shift Scenario)* 

1.44

1.45

1.46

1.47

1.48

1.49

1.5

1.51

2014201620182020202220242026202820302032203420362038204020422044

Average BEF

Base Case

CSL 1

CSL 2

CSL 3

Figure 10.2.7. Average Efficiency of Stock, Ballasts Operating 4-Foot MBP Lamps 

(Residential, Existing Technologies, Roll-Up Scenario)* 

10-17 

EERE-2007-BT-STD-0016 COMMENT 25
 

1.44

1.45

1.46

1.47

1.48

1.49

1.5

1.51

2014201620182020202220242026202820302032203420362038204020422044

Average BEF

Base Case

CSL 1

CSL 2

CSL 3

Figure 10.2.8. Average Efficiency of Stock, Ballasts Operating 4-Foot MBP Lamps 

(Residential, Emerging Technologies, Roll-Up Scenario)* 

1.44

1.45

1.46

1.47

1.48

1.49

1.5

1.51

2014201620182020202220242026202820302032203420362038204020422044

Average BEF

Base Case

CSL 1

CSL 2

CSL 3

Figure 10.2.9. Average Efficiency of Stock, Ballasts Operating 4-Foot MBP Lamps 

(Residential, Emerging Technologies, Shift Scenario)* 

10-18 

EERE-2007-BT-STD-0016 COMMENT 25
 

1.21

1.22

1.23

1.24

1.25

1.26

1.27

1.28

1.29

1.3

1.31

2014201620182020202220242026202820302032203420362038204020422044

Average BEF

Base Case

CSL 1

CSL 2

CSL 3

Figure 10.2.10. Average Efficiency of Stock, Ballasts Operating 4-Foot MBP Lamps 

(Commercial, Existing Technologies, Shift Scenario)* 

1.21

1.22

1.23

1.24

1.25

1.26

1.27

1.28

1.29

1.3

1.31

2014201620182020202220242026202820302032203420362038204020422044

Average BEF

Base Case

CSL 1

CSL 2

CSL 3

Figure 10.2.11. Average Efficiency of Stock, Ballasts Operating 4-Foot MBP Lamps 

(Commercial, Existing Technologies, Roll-Up Scenario) 

10-19 

EERE-2007-BT-STD-0016 COMMENT 25
 

1.22

1.23

1.24

1.25

1.26

1.27

1.28

1.29

1.3

1.31

2014201620182020202220242026202820302032203420362038204020422044

Average BEF

Base Case

CSL 1

CSL 2

CSL 3

Figure 10.2.12. Average Efficiency of Stock, Ballasts Operating 4-Foot MBP Lamps 

(Commercial, Emerging Technologies, Roll-Up Scenario) 

1.22

1.23

1.24

1.25

1.26

1.27

1.28

1.29

1.3

1.31

2014201620182020202220242026202820302032203420362038204020422044

Average BEF

Base Case

CSL 1

CSL 2

CSL 3

Figure 10.2.13. Average Efficiency of Stock, Ballasts Operating 4-Foot MBP Lamps 

(Commercial, Emerging Technologies, Shift Scenario)* 

10-20 

EERE-2007-BT-STD-0016 COMMENT 25
 

0.785

0.79

0.795

0.8

0.805

0.81

0.815

2014201620182020202220242026202820302032203420362038204020422044

Average BEF

Base Case

CSL 1

CSL 2

CSL 3

Figure 10.2.14. Average Efficiency of Stock, Ballasts Operating 8-Foot Slimline Lamps 

(Existing Technologies, Shift Scenario)* 

0.785

0.79

0.795

0.8

0.805

0.81

0.815

2014201620182020202220242026202820302032203420362038204020422044

Average BEF

Base Case

CSL 1

CSL 2

CSL 3

Figure 10.2.15. Average Efficiency of Stock, Ballasts Operating 8-Foot Slimline Lamps 

(Existing Technologies, Roll-Up Scenario)* 

10-21 

EERE-2007-BT-STD-0016 COMMENT 25
 

0.785

0.79

0.795

0.8

0.805

0.81

0.815

2014201620182020202220242026202820302032203420362038204020422044

Average BEF

Base Case

CSL 1

CSL 2

CSL 3

Figure 10.2.16. Average Efficiency of Stock, Ballasts Operating 8-Foot Slimline Lamps 

(Emerging Technologies, Roll-Up Scenario)* 

0.785

0.79

0.795

0.8

0.805

0.81

0.815

2014201620182020202220242026202820302032203420362038204020422044

Average BEF

Base Case

CSL 1

CSL 2

CSL 3

Figure 10.2.17. Average Efficiency of Stock, Ballasts Operating 8-Foot Slimline Lamps 

(Emerging Technologies, Shift Scenario)* 

10-22 

EERE-2007-BT-STD-0016 COMMENT 25
 

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

2014201620182020202220242026202820302032203420362038204020422044

Average BEF

Base Case

CSL 1

CSL 2

CSL 3

Figure 10.2.18. Average Efficiency of Stock, Ballasts Operating 8-Foot RDC HO Lamps 

(Existing Technologies, Shift Scenario)* 

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

2014201620182020202220242026202820302032203420362038204020422044

Average BEF

Base Case

CSL 1

CSL 2

CSL 3

Figure 10.2.19. Average Efficiency of Stock, Ballasts Operating 8-Foot RDC HO Lamps 

(Existing Technologies, Roll-Up Scenario)* 

10-23 

EERE-2007-BT-STD-0016 COMMENT 25
 

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

2014201620182020202220242026202820302032203420362038204020422044

Average BEF

Base Case

CSL 1

CSL 2

CSL 3

Figure 10.2.20. Average Efficiency of Stock, Ballasts Operating 8-Foot RDC HO Lamps 

(Emerging Technologies, Roll-Up Scenario)* 

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

2014201620182020202220242026202820302032203420362038204020422044

Average BEF

Base Case

CSL 1

CSL 2

CSL 3

Figure 10.2.21. Average Efficiency of Stock, Ballasts Operating 8-Foot RDC HO Lamps 

(Emerging Technologies, Shift Scenario)* 

10-24 

EERE-2007-BT-STD-0016 COMMENT 25
 

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2014201620182020202220242026202820302032203420362038204020422044

Average BEF

Base Case

CSL 1

CSL 2

CSL 3

Figure 10.2.22. Average Efficiency of Stock, Ballasts Operating 4-Foot T5 MiniBP SO and 

HO Lamps (Existing Technologies, Shift Scenario)* 

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2014201620182020202220242026202820302032203420362038204020422044

Average BEF

Base Case

CSL 1

CSL 2

CSL 3

Figure 10.2.23. Average Efficiency of Stock, Ballasts Operating 4-Foot T5 MiniBP SO and 

HO Lamps (Existing Technologies, Roll-Up Scenario)* 

10-25 

EERE-2007-BT-STD-0016 COMMENT 25
 

1.1

1.15

1.2

1.25

1.3

1.35

1.4

1.45

1.5

2014201620182020202220242026202820302032203420362038204020422044

Average BEF

Base Case

CSL 1

CSL 2

CSL 3

Figure 10.2.24. Average Efficiency of Stock, Ballasts Operating 4-Foot T5 MiniBP SO and 

HO Lamps (Emerging Technologies, Roll-Up Scenario)* 

1.1

1.15

1.2

1.25

1.3

1.35

1.4

1.45

1.5

2014201620182020202220242026202820302032203420362038204020422044

Average BEF

Base Case

CSL 1

CSL 2

CSL 3

Figure 10.2.25. Average Efficiency of Stock, Ballasts Operating 4-Foot T5 MiniBP SO and 

HO Lamps (Emerging Technologies, Shift Scenario)* 

10-26 

EERE-2007-BT-STD-0016 COMMENT 25
 

 

 

10.3 NATIONAL ENERGY SAVINGS 

10.3.1 National Energy Savings Definition 

DOE calculates annual national energy savings as the difference between the base case 

(without new standards) and the standards case (with new standards). Positive values of NES 

correspond to net energy savings following standards implementation; i.e., national annual 

energy consumption (AEC) with standards is less than AEC in the base case. 

NESt = (AECt,base − AECt ,std ) × HVAC × RR Eq. 10.1 

Where: 

NESt = national energy savings in year t, 

AEC = annual national energy consumption each year (at the source) in quadrillion 

British thermal units (quads), 

HVAC= heating, ventilation, air conditioning (HVAC) factor, 

RR = rebound factor, equal to one plus the rebound rate, 

t = year in the forecast (e.g., 2014 to 2044), 

base = base case, and 

std = standards case. 

Cumulative energy savings are the sum over a defined time period from the implementation of a 

standard forward (from 2014 to 2044) of the annual national energy savings multiplied by the 

HVAC interaction factor and rebound rate. 

NEScum = ∑NESt Eq. 10.2 t 

Where: 

NEScum = cumulative national energy savings. 

DOE calculated the AEC (in any year) by multiplying the number or stock of ballasts by 

the product of the annual unit energy consumption and the site-to-source conversion factor, 

shown by the following equation: 

AEC = ∑STOCKbd ×UECbd × src _ convt Eq. 10.3 

bd 

Where: 

bd = ballast ID number, 

STOCKbd = stock of ballasts for a given design surviving in the year for which DOE 

calculated AEC, 

UECbd = unit energy consumption (kWh per year), and 

src_convt = time-dependent conversion factor to convert from site energy (kWh) to 

source energy (quads, Btu/kWh). 

10-27 

EERE-2007-BT-STD-0016 COMMENT 25
 

10.3.2 National Energy Savings Inputs 

Table 10.3.1 lists the inputs for the determination of NES. 

Table 10.3.1 National Energy Saving Inputs 

Input 

Unit Energy Consumption, UEC 

Ballast Stock by Design (STOCKld) 

Site-to-Source Conversion Factor (src_conv) 

Heating, Ventilation, Air Conditioning Factor (HVAC) 

Rebound Rate (RR) 

10.3.2.1 Unit Energy Consumption (UEC) 

DOE presented the per-unit UEC for each lamp-and-ballast system design in the energy 

use characterization (preliminary TSD chapter 6). For the NES and NPV calculations, DOE used 

an average number of annual operating hours for each sector and ballast type in calculating the 

UEC of each lamp-and-ballast system design. 

10.3.2.2 Ballast Stock 

The ballast stock in a given year is the total number of ballast shipped in prior years that 

survive. The NES spreadsheet model keeps track of the ballasts shipped each year. DOE 

discusses forecasted shipments for the base case and all standards cases in chapter 9. To generate 

the shipments that eventually compose the ballast stock, the shipments analysis incorporates one 

set of base-case scenarios and one set of standards case scenarios that can affect shipments. The 

base-case scenarios, existing and emerging technologies, dictate the penetration of other lighting 

technologies, and therefore affect the total volume of ballast shipments and installed stock. The 

standards-case scenarios are comprised of the roll-up and shift scenarios. These scenarios dictate 

the inputs to the market-share apportionments, and therefore affect the breakdown of the 

installed stock by ballast design from 2014 to 2044. 

These standards case scenarios are compared to two separate base case scenarios (existing 

and emerging technologies) resulting in four possible sets of results. The shift scenario generally 

results in higher energy savings than the roll-up scenario. The market share apportionments as 

presented in chapter 9 provide for the breakdown of the stock by ballast design. 

10.3.2.3 Site-to-Source Conversion Factors 

The site-to-source conversion factor is the multiplier DOE uses for converting site-energy 

consumption into primary or source energy consumption. For electricity, the conversion factors 

vary over time due to projected changes in generation sources (i.e., the power plant types 

projected to provide electricity to the country). For this rulemaking, DOE calculated annual 

average site-to-source conversion factors based on the version of the National Energy Modeling 

Systems (NEMS) that corresponds to the Energy Information Administration’s Annual Energy 

Outlook (AEO). Table 10.3.2 presents site-to-source factors used in the NES spreadsheet model. 

The average conversion factors vary over time, due to projected changes in electricity generation 

sources. For the preliminary analysis, DOE used the site-to-source conversion factors from the 

10-28 

EERE-2007-BT-STD-0016 COMMENT 25
 

 

 

2008 version of the AEO (AEO2008), and will update to the latest available version of the AEO 

during the next phase of the analysis. 1 

Table 10.3.2 Site-to-Source Conversion Factors 

Year Site-to-Source 

Conversion Factor 

Btu/kWh 

Year Site-to-Source 

Conversion Factor 

Btu/kWh 

2012 8,700 2028 10,400 

2013 8,800 2029 10,400 

2014 8,900 2030 10,400 

2015 8,900 2031 10,400 

2016 9,200 2032 10,400 

2017 9,500 2033 10,400 

2018 9,500 2034 10,400 

2019 9,700 2035 10,400 

2020 9,900 2036 10,400 

2021 9,900 2037 10,400 

2022 9,900 2038 10,400 

2023 10,100 2039 10,400 

2024 10,200 2040 10,400 

2025 10,200 2041 10,400 

2026 10,200 2042 10,400 

2027 10,400 

Source: AEO2008. Conversion factors beyond 2030 are extrapolated. 

10.3.2.4 Interactions with Heating, Ventilation, and Air-Conditioning (HVAC) Systems 

Interactions with heating, ventilating, and air-conditioning systems in the commercial and 

industrial sectors are represented by an HVAC factor, as given in Eq. 10.3. The HVAC factor 

reflects the extent to which the energy savings from more efficient equipment are offset by 

increased demands placed on heating and cooling equipment in the presence of more efficient 

equipment. Typically this takes the form of increased efficiency being achieved through less 

energy wasted as heat, increasing the burden on HVAC equipment in winter months. Consistent 

with the Lamps rule, DOE assumed an HVAC factor of 1.06 in the commercial and industrial 

sectors and assumed an HVAC factor of 1 for the residential sector. 

10.3.2.5 Rebound Rate 

In its analysis, DOE considers the rebound effect that occurs after installation of energyefficient lighting equipment. Under economic theory, “rebound effect” refers to the tendency of a 

consumer to respond to the cost savings associated with more efficient equipment in a manner 

that actually leads to marginally greater product usage, thereby diminishing some portion of 

anticipated benefits related to improved efficiency. DOE examined a summary of the literature 

regarding the rebound effect in relation to lighting equipment.2

 Based on four studies, the 

summary estimated that for a 100-percent increase in energy efficiency, “take-back” or rebound 

values for residential lighting are between 5 and 12 percent of energy consumption savings. The 

summary estimated zero to 2-percent rebound values for commercial and industrial lighting. 

10-29 

EERE-2007-BT-STD-0016 COMMENT 25
 

 

Therefore, in the calculation of national energy savings due to energy conservation standards on 

lighting, DOE calculated a rebound rate of 8.5 percent in the residential sector and 1 percent in 

the commercial and industrial sectors. 

However, the take-back in energy consumption associated with the rebound effect 

provides consumers with increased value (e.g., increased lighting hours, since the increased 

efficiency enables consumers to use their lighting equipment for longer periods of time). The 

impact on consumers is therefore the sum of the change in the cost of owning the lighting 

equipment (i.e., life-cycle cost [LCC]) and the increased value of more lighting hours. DOE has 

not been able to monetize this increase in consumer value in the LCC analysis. If it were able to 

monetize the increased value to consumers of the rebound effect, this value would be equal to or 

greater than the value of the foregone energy savings. For this analysis, DOE estimates that this 

value is equal to the monetary value of the energy savings that would have occurred without the 

rebound effect. Therefore, while the assumed rebound rate affects the calculated energy savings 

from amended standards, it does not affect the calculated monetary value of those savings. 

10.4 NET PRESENT VALUE 

10.4.1 Net Present Value Definition 

The NPV is the value in the present of a time series of costs and savings. The NPV is 

calculated as follows: 

NPV = PVS − PVC Eq. 10.4 

Where: 

PVS = present value of operating cost savings, and 

PVC = present value of increased total installed costs. 

The PVS and PVC are determined according to the following expressions: 

PVS = ∑OCSt × DFt Eq. 10.5 

PVC = ∑TICt × DFt Eq. 10.6 

Where: 

OCS = total annual operating cost savings, 

TIC = total annual installed cost increases, 

DF = discount factor, and 

t = year (PVS and PVC are summed over 2014-2044). 

DOE determined the contributions to PVC and PVS for each year from the effective date 

of the standard, 2014 to 2044, discounted for the preliminary analysis to 2008. DOE calculated 

costs and savings as the difference between a standards case (i.e., with amended standards) and a 

base case (i.e., without amended standards). DOE calculated a discount factor from the discount 

10-30 

EERE-2007-BT-STD-0016 COMMENT 25
 

 

rate and the number of years between the “present” (i.e., year to which the sum is being 

discounted) and the year in which the costs and savings occur. DOE calculated the net present 

value as the sum over time of the discounted net savings (which is equivalent to the approach 

shown in Eqs. 10.4 through 10.6). 

10.4.2 Net Present Value Inputs 

Table 10.4.1 summarizes the inputs to the NPV calculation. 

Table 10.4.1 Net Present Value Inputs 

Input 

Total Annual Installed Cost Increases (TICt) 

Total Annual Operating Cost Savings (OCSt) 

Discount Factor 

10.4.2.1 Total Annual Installed Cost Increases 

DOE calculated the increase in total annual installed costs as the difference between the 

total annual installed costs in the standards case minus those in the base case. For each case, the 

total annual installed costs equal the product of the shipments and per unit installed cost 

(summed over each ballast design). Although ballast designs often have slightly varying 

lifetimes, as discussed in chapter 9, DOE used an average lifetime of each ballast type for each 

product class. Therefore, to ensure the accurate calculation of NPV, DOE scaled the per unit 

installed costs of each lamp to account for this modification of ballast lifetime. 

10.4.2.2 Total Annual Operating Cost Savings 

As the LCC and payback period (PBP) analysis (preliminary TSD chapter 8) describes, 

DOE calculates total annual operating costs based on national average electricity prices. DOE 

calculates total annual operating cost savings as the difference between total annual operating 

costs in the base case minus those in the standards case. (The only component of annual 

operating cost for lamp-and-ballast systems that is different between the base case and the 

standards case is the cost of electricity consumption.) 

OCS = ∑STOCKbd ×UECbd × electricity price Eq. 10.7 

bd 

DOE uses an average number of annual operating hours for each sector and ballast type 

in calculating the UEC of each lamp-and-ballast design. 

DOE uses national average commercial electricity prices for commercial sector 4-foot 

MBP, 8-foot slimline, and 4-foot T5 MiniBP SO systems. DOE uses national average industrial 

prices for the 8-foot RDC HO and 4-foot T5 MiniBP HO systems. For 4-foot MBP systems in 

the residential sector, DOE uses national-average residential electricity prices for its analysis. 

DOE uses AEO2009 to establish all electricity prices.3,4 Chapter 8 provides the electricity price 

forecasts DOE uses to calculate the NPV. 

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10.4.2.3 Discount Factor 

DOE multiplies monetary values in future years by the discount factor (DF) to calculate 

the present value. The following equation describes how to calculate the discount factor: 

t−t p ) DF =1 (1+ r)( Eq. 10.8 

Where: 

r = discount rate, 

t = year of the monetary value, and 

tp = year in which the present value is being determined. 

DOE estimates national impacts with both a 3-percent and a 7-percent real discount rate 

as the average real rate of return on private investment in the U.S. economy. These discount rates 

are used in accordance with the Office of Management and Budget (OMB)’s guidance to Federal 

agencies on the development of regulatory analysis (OMB Circular A-4, September 17, 2003), 

and section E, “Identifying and Measuring Benefits and Costs,” therein.5 DOE defined the 

present year as 2014 (the first year of the standard) for this preliminary analysis. 

10.5 NATIONAL ENERGY SAVINGS AND NET PRESENT VALUE RESULTS 

The NES spreadsheet model provides estimates of the NES and NPV due to various 

CSLs. The inputs to the NES spreadsheet are discussed in sections 10.3.2 and section 10.4.2. 

DOE generated the NES and NPV results using Microsoft Excel spreadsheets, accessible at 

http://www.eere.energy.gov/buildings/appliance_standards/residential/fluorescent_lamp_ballasts. 

html. Appendix 10A provides instructions for using the spreadsheets. 

10.5.1 National Energy Savings and Net Present Value Input Summary 

Table 10.5.1 summarizes the inputs to the NES spreadsheet model. A brief description of 

the data is given for each input. 

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Table 10.5.1. National Energy Saving and Net Present Value Inputs 

Input Data Data Description 

Shipments Annual shipments from the ballast shipment model (preliminary TSD 

chapter 9). 

Stock of Ballasts Established based on the calculated 2014 ballast stock, the service life of 

ballasts, penetration of emerging technologies, and annual shipments. The 

2014 initial stock is based on estimated historical shipments based on 

U.S.Census Bureau Current Industrial Reports data, estimated ballast 

service lifetimes, and the assumed growth rate of the historical stock from 

1990–2013 (preliminary TSD chapter 9). 

Effective Date of Standard 2014 

Analysis Period 2014 to 2044 

Unit Energy Consumption (kWh/yr) Established in the Energy-Use Characterization (preliminary TSD chapter 

6) by lamp-and-ballast design and sector. 

Total Installed Cost Established in the Markups Analysis (preliminary TSD chapter 7) and the 

LCC Analysis (preliminary TSD chapter 8) by lamp-and-ballast designs. 

Electricity Price Forecast EIA forecasts (to 2030) from the AEO2009 (original, or March, version*) 

and extrapolation for beyond 2030 (preliminary TSD chapter 8). 

Electricity Site-to-Source Conversion Conversion varies yearly and was generated by AEO2008 forecasts (to 

2030) of electricity generation and electricity-related losses. Conversion 

factors beyond 2030 are extrapolated. 

HVAC Interaction Savings Negligible. 

Rebound Effect 1% of total energy savings in the commercial sector 

8.5% of total energy savings in the residential sector 

Discount Rate 3 and 7 percent real. 

Present Year Future costs and savings are discounted to 2014. 

*While this analysis relied on the most recent (April 2009) version of the AEO where possible, that version was only 

a partial update and did not include sufficient information to extrapolate high- and low-price scenario. Accordingly, 

DOE used the March 2009 version for electricity price scenarios. 

10.5.2 National Energy Savings Results 

The following section provides NES results for each CSL that DOE considers for 

ballasts. Results are cumulative to 2044 and are shown as primary energy savings measured in 

quads. As discussed earlier, DOE analyzes several shipment scenarios for ballasts. In this section 

DOE presents only upper and lower bound energy savings and net present value results (from the 

existing/shift and emerging/roll-up scenarios, respectively). 

Table 10.5.2 and Table 10.5.3 show the NES results under the existing technologies, shift 

scenario, which reflects the upper bound of energy savings, and the emerging, roll-up scenario, 

which reflects the lower bound, respectively. Due to a larger reduction in the installed stock of 

ballasts affected by standards, the emerging technologies base-case forecast results in lower 

energy savings than the existing technologies base-case forecast. Finally, because in the shift 

scenario more consumers move to higher-efficiency lamp-and-ballast systems than in the roll-up 

scenario, the shift scenario results in higher energy savings than the roll-up scenario. 

Table 10.5.2 and Table 10.5.3 present total national energy savings for each CSL by 

ballast type and in total. However, it is important to note that the numbers presented in these 

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EERE-2007-BT-STD-0016 COMMENT 25
 

 

tables are calculated assuming that all ballast types face the same trial standard level. This 

matters because in some cases the regulation of certain ballast types affects the savings from 

regulating others. If different ballasts are regulated at different standard levels, savings will vary 

somewhat from the values given here. Nevertheless, these savings illustrate the expected relative 

energy savings of each ballast type under a given CSL. 

Table 10.5.2. Cumulative National Energy Savings for Ballasts under the Existing, Shift 

Scenario (2014-2044) 

CSL Ballast Product Class NES Discount* 

quads 

None Percentage 

7 3 

1 Two-Lamp Normal BF 4-Foot MBP IS & RS 1.632 0.359 0.813 

Two-Lamp Normal BF 4-Foot MBP PS 0.251 0.050 0.120 

Four-Lamp Normal BF 4-Foot MBP IS & RS -0.395 -0.088 -0.197 

Four-Lamp Normal BF 4-Foot MBP PS 0.133 0.025 0.062 

Two-Lamp Normal BF 8-Foot RDC HO IS & RS 0.013 0.005 0.009 

Two-Lamp Normal BF 8-Foot SP Slimline (T12 Baseline) 0.000 0.000 0.000 

Two-Lamp Normal BF 8-Foot SP Slimline (T8 Baseline) 0.022 0.005 0.011 

Two-Lamp Normal BF 4-Foot T5 Minibp SO 1.923 0.345 0.877 

Two-Lamp 4-Foot T5 MiniBP HO 0.710 0.149 0.346 

Two-Lamp Low BF 4-Foot MBP IS & RS Residential -0.135 -0.029 -0.066 

Four-Lamp Sign Ballasts 4.986 1.069 2.453 

Total 9.140 1.891 4.427 

2 Two-Lamp Normal BF 4-Foot MBP IS & RS 1.725 0.388 0.868 

Two-Lamp Normal BF 8-Foot RDC HO IS & RS 0.014 0.006 0.010 

Two-Lamp Normal BF 4-Foot T5 MiniBP SO 2.264 0.422 1.050 

Two-Lamp 4-Foot T5 MiniBP HO 0.744 0.161 0.368 

Two-Lamp Low BF 4-Foot MBP IS & RS Residential -0.136 -0.029 -0.067 

Total 4.382 0.949 2.228 

3 Two-Lamp Normal BF 4-Foot MBP IS & RS 1.725 0.388 0.868 

 Total 1.727 0.388 0.868 *

 Note that energy savings for individual ballast product classes (due to separate regulation) do not sum to equal total 

energy savings achieved at the CSLs due to standards-induced substitution effects among ballast types. 

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Table 10.5.3. Cumulative National Energy Savings for Ballasts under the Emerging, RollUp Scenario (2014-2044) 

CSL Ballast Product Class NES Discount* 

quads 

None Percentage 

7 3 

1 Two-Lamp Normal BF 4-Foot MBP IS & RS 0.000 0.000 0.000 

Two-Lamp Normal BF 4-Foot MBP PS 0.135 0.032 0.069 

Four-Lamp Normal BF 4-Foot MBP IS & RS -0.242 -0.062 -0.129 

Four-Lamp Normal BF 4-Foot MBP PS 0.067 0.015 0.034 

Two-Lamp Normal BF 8-Foot RDC HO IS & RS 0.006 0.003 0.005 

Two-Lamp Normal BF 8-Foot SP Slimline (T12 Baseline) 0.000 0.000 0.000 

Two-Lamp Normal BF 8-Foot SP Slimline (T8 Baseline) 0.022 0.005 0.011 

Two-Lamp Normal BF 4-Foot T5 Minibp SO 0.825 0.178 0.407 

Two-Lamp 4-Foot T5 MiniBP HO 0.582 0.126 0.288 

Two-Lamp Low BF 4-Foot MBP IS & RS Residential -0.006 -0.002 -0.003 

Four-Lamp Sign Ballasts 4.986 1.069 2.453 

Total 6.375 1.365 3.136 

2 Two-Lamp Normal BF 4-Foot MBP IS & RS 0.913 0.235 0.488 

Two-Lamp Normal BF 8-Foot RDC HO IS & RS 0.016 0.007 0.011 

Two-Lamp Normal BF 4-Foot T5 MiniBP SO 1.209 0.261 0.597 

Two-Lamp 4-Foot T5 MiniBP HO 0.744 0.161 0.368 

Two-Lamp Low BF 4-Foot MBP IS & RS Residential -0.136 -0.029 -0.067 

Total 2.746 0.635 1.397 

3 Two-Lamp Normal BF 4-Foot MBP IS & RS 1.050 0.270 0.562 

Total 1.050 0.270 0.562 *

 Note that energy savings for individual ballast product classes (due to separate regulation) do not sum to equal total 

energy savings achieved at the CSLs due to standards-induced substitution effects among ballast types. 

10.5.3 Net Present Value Analysis 

The NPV calculation attempts to calculate the total monetary costs and benefits of the 

standard for all consumers of ballasts. This calculation relies primarily on two inputs: the NES 

calculations described in the previous section, which are translated into a decrease (or in some 

cases increase) in operating costs; and the increase (or in some cases decrease) in installed costs. 

This section graphs both elements of NPV over time. Figure 10.5.1 through Figure 

10.5.10 present the discounted annual total installed cost increases and annual operating cost 

savings at the national level using a 7-percent discount rate. Both annual total installed cost 

increases and annual operating costs savings accumulate from 2014 to 2044. The figures also 

present the NPV, which is the difference between cumulative annual discounted operating cost 

savings and the cumulative annual discounted total installed cost increases. 

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EERE-2007-BT-STD-0016 COMMENT 25
 

   

     

   

     

30

20

10 Discounted Operating

Cost Savings

Discounted Installed Cost 0 Increase 2014 2017 2020 2023 2026 2029 2032 2035 2038 2041 2044

Millions

Total NPV

‐10
 

‐20
 

‐30
 

Figure 10.5.1. National Annual Total Installed Equipment and Operating Cost Savings for 

4-Foot MBP (Residential) at CSL3 (Existing Technologies, Shift Scenario) Discounted at 7 

Percent per Year 

30

20

10 Discounted Operating 2014 2017 2020 2023 2026 2029 2032 2035 2038 2041 2044

Millions

Cost Savings

Discounted Installed Cost 0 Increase

Total NPV

‐10
 

‐20
 

‐30
 

Figure 10.5.2. National Annual Total Installed Equipment and Operating Cost Savings for 

4-Foot MBP (Residential) at CSL3 (Emerging Technologies, Roll-Up Scenario) Discounted 

at 7 Percent per Year 

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EERE-2007-BT-STD-0016 COMMENT 25
 

   

     

   

     

‐1,000

‐800

‐600

‐400

‐200

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

20142017202020232026202920322035203820412044

Millions

Discounted Operating

Cost Savings

Discounted Installed Cost

Increase

Total NPV

Figure 10.5.3. National Annual Total Installed Equipment and Operating Cost Savings for
 

4-Foot MBP (Commercial) at CSL3 (Existing Technologies, Shift Scenario) Discounted at 7 

Percent per Year 

‐1,000

‐800

‐600

‐400

‐200

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

20142017202020232026202920322035203820412044

Millions

Discounted Operating

Cost Savings

Discounted Installed Cost

Increase

Total NPV

Figure 10.5.4. National Annual Total Installed Equipment and Operating Cost Savings for
 

4-Foot MBP (Commercial) at CSL3 (Existing Technologies, Shift Scenario) Discounted at 7 

Percent per Year 

10-37
 

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‐4

‐3

‐2

‐1

0

1

2

3

4

5

20142017202020232026202920322035203820412044

Millions

Discounted Operating

Cost Savings

Discounted Installed Cost

Increase

Total NPV

Figure 10.5.5. National Annual Total Installed Equipment and Operating Cost Savings for 

8-Foot Slimline at CSL3 (Existing Technologies, Shift Scenario) Discounted at 7 Percent 

per Year 

‐4

‐3

‐2

‐1

0

1

2

3

4

5

20142017202020232026202920322035203820412044

Millions

Discounted Operating

Cost Savings

Discounted Installed Cost

Increase

Total NPV

Figure 10.5.6. National Annual Total Installed Equipment and Operating Cost Savings for
 

8-Foot Slimline at CSL3 (Emerging Technologies, Roll-Up Scenario) Discounted at 7 

Percent per Year 

10-38
 

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0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

20142017202020232026202920322035203820412044

Millions

Discounted Operating

Cost Savings

Discounted Installed Cost

Increase

Total NPV

Figure 10.5.7. National Annual Total Installed Equipment and Operating Cost Savings for 

8-Foot RDC HO at CSL3 (Existing Technologies, Shift Scenario) Discounted at 7 Percent 

per Year 

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

20142017202020232026202920322035203820412044

Millions

Discounted Operating

Cost Savings

Discounted Installed Cost

Increase

Total NPV

Figure 10.5.8. National Annual Total Installed Equipment and Operating Cost Savings for
 

8-Foot RDC HO at CSL3 (Emerging Technologies, Roll-Up Scenario) Discounted at 7 

Percent per Year 

10-39
 

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0

50

100

150

200

250

20142017202020232026202920322035203820412044

Millions

Discounted Operating

Cost Savings

Discounted Installed Cost

Increase

Total NPV

Figure 10.5.9. National Annual Total Installed Equipment and Operating Cost Savings for 

4-Foot Miniature Bipin T5 Standard Output and High Output at CSL3 (Existing 

Technologies, Shift Scenario) Discounted at 7 Percent per Year 

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

20142017202020232026202920322035203820412044

Millions

Discounted Operating

Cost Savings

Discounted Installed Cost

Increase

Total NPV

Figure 10.5.10. National Annual Total Installed Equipment and Operating Cost Savings for 

4-Foot Miniature Bipin T5 Standard Output and High Output at CSL3 (Emerging 

Technologies, Roll-Up Scenario) Discounted at 7 Percent per Year 

In most cases the operating cost savings, installed costs increases, and NPV all trend 

towards zero over time, reflecting the impacts of discounting. 

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EERE-2007-BT-STD-0016 COMMENT 25
 

 

NPV results are cumulative and shown as the discounted value of these savings in dollar 

terms. DOE uses national averages for key inputs such as electricity pricing and sector-specific 

point values for operating hours in calculating operating cost savings and installed cost increases. 

Thus, the NPV results are discrete point values rather than a distribution of values as in the LCC 

and PBP analyses. 

The present value of increased total installed costs is the total installed cost increase (i.e., 

the difference between the standards case and base case in given year), discounted to the present, 

and summed over the time period in which DOE evaluates the impact of standards (i.e., from the 

effective date of standards, 2014 to 2044). 

Savings are decreases in operating costs associated with higher efficiency ballasts 

purchased in the standards case compared to the base case. DOE calculated total annual 

operating cost savings as the difference between total annual operating costs in the base case 

minus those in the standards case. Eq. 10.7 gives the total annual operating costs in each case. 

In general, the NPV results at each candidate? standard level largely reflect the LCC 

savings at the corresponding efficiency levels. As discussed in chapter 8 (LCC and PBP 

analyses), for most ballast purchasing events and most baseline ballast designs, increasing 

efficiency levels generally result in increased LCC savings. Due to this general costeffectiveness of higher efficiency ballasts, the existing technologies base-case forecast (which 

increases the affected stock and shipments) and the shift scenario (which results in the shipment 

of more high-efficiency ballasts) represent the high-range scenario for NPV. 

10.5.4 Net Present Value Results 

Table 10.5.4 and Table 10.5.5 show the NPV results in tabular format, including the 

existing technologies/shift scenario and the emerging technologies/roll-up scenario, as in section 

Error! Reference source not found.. In these tables, NPV is presented at both 7- and 3-percent 

discount rates. 

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Table 10.5.4. Cumulative NPV Results for Ballasts Under the Existing Technologies, Shift 

Scenario (2014-2044) 

CSL Ballast Product Class Percent NPV Discount* 

billion 2008$ 

7 3 

1 Two-Lamp Normal BF 4-Foot MBP IS & RS 9.046 18.490 

Two-Lamp Normal BF 4-Foot MBP PS 0.276 0.872 

Four-Lamp Normal BF 4-Foot MBP IS & RS -1.536 -3.062 

Four-Lamp Normal BF 4-Foot MBP PS 0.143 0.459 

Two-Lamp Normal BF 8-Foot RDC HO IS & RS 0.060 0.089 

Two-Lamp Normal BF 8-Foot SP Slimline (T12 Baseline) 0.000 0.000 

Two-Lamp Normal BF 8-Foot SP Slimline (T8 Baseline) 0.007 0.049 

Two-Lamp Normal BF 4-Foot T5 Minibp SO 3.408 9.204 

Two-Lamp 4-Foot T5 MiniBP HO 1.049 2.570 

Two-Lamp Low BF 4-Foot MBP IS & RS Residential 0.000 -0.268 

Four-Lamp Sign Ballasts 9.900 23.364 

Total 22.353 51.770 

2 Two-Lamp Normal BF 4-Foot MBP IS & RS 14.931 25.847 

Two-Lamp Normal BF 8-Foot RDC HO IS & RS 0.091 0.134 

Two-Lamp Normal BF 4-Foot T5 MiniBP SO 4.366 11.284 

Two-Lamp 4-Foot T5 MiniBP HO 1.169 2.762 

Two-Lamp Low BF 4-Foot MBP IS & RS Residential 0.000 -0.270 

Total 20.557 39.757 

3 Two-Lamp Normal BF 4-Foot MBP IS & RS 14.931 25.847 

Total 14.945 25.877 

Table 10.5.5. Cumulative NPV Results for Ballasts Under the Emerging Technologies, RollUp Scenario (2014-2044) 

CSL Ballast Product Class Percent NPV Discount 

billion 2008$ 

7 3 

1 Two-Lamp Normal BF 4-Foot MBP IS & RS 0.000 0.000 

Two-Lamp Normal BF 4-Foot MBP PS 0.181 0.520 

Four-Lamp Normal BF 4-Foot MBP IS & RS -1.060 -1.945 

Four-Lamp Normal BF 4-Foot MBP PS 0.088 0.256 

Two-Lamp Normal BF 8-Foot RDC HO IS & RS 0.035 0.051 

Two-Lamp Normal BF 8-Foot SP Slimline (T12 Baseline) 0.000 0.000 

Two-Lamp Normal BF 8-Foot SP Slimline (T8 Baseline) 0.007 0.049 

Two-Lamp Normal BF 4-Foot T5 MiniBP SO 1.633 4.035 

Two-Lamp 4-Foot T5 MiniBP HO 0.822 2.010 

Two-Lamp Low BF 4-Foot MBP IS & RS Residential -0.012 -0.042 

Four-Lamp Sign Ballasts 9.900 23.364 

Total 11.594 28.299 

2 Two-Lamp Normal BF 4-Foot MBP IS & RS 2.830 5.736 

Two-Lamp Normal BF 8-Foot RDC HO IS & RS 0.106 0.153 

Two-Lamp Normal BF 4-Foot T5 MiniBP SO 2.667 6.345 

Two-Lamp 4-Foot T5 MiniBP HO 1.169 2.762 

Two-Lamp Low BF 4-Foot MBP IS & RS Residential (T12 Baseline) 0.000 -0.270 

Total 6.773 14.725 

3 Two-Lamp Normal BF 4-Foot MBP IS & RS 10.189 16.086 

Total 10.189 16.086 

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REFERENCES 

1. U.S. Department of Energy–Energy Information Administration. Annual Energy Outlook 

2008 with Projections to 2030. June 2008. Washington, D.C. 

< http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/archive/aeo08/index.html>. 

2. Greening, L.A., D.L. Greene, and C. Difiglio. 2000. Energy Efficiency and 

Consumption–The Rebound Effect: A Survey. Energy Policy. 28: pp. 389–401. 

3. U.S. Department of Energy–Energy Information Administration. Annual Energy Outlook 

2009 with Projections to 2030. March 2009. Washington, D.C. 

< http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/aeoref_tab.html>. 

4. U.S. Department of Energy–Energy Information Administration. Annual Energy Outlook 

2009 with Projections to 2030. Updated reference case. April 2009. Washington, D.C. 

<http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/index.html>. 

5. Office of Management and Budget. Circular A-4. September 2003. Washington, D.C. 

<http://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/circulars/a004/a-4.pdf>. 

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