Shipments of Clothes Washers

(excluding compacts and exports)

10

9 History Projected

8

7 -

6 -

5 - -- "Historical (1957-1996)

4§E A fI: Y rY~~~~~~~~~-a- Projected (1981-2030)

-- regress 20 years

3 , --- regress 40 years

,'; '-- regress 30 years

2 -- regress 10 years

1 9516 195 9017 19 19519 1I9520 205 01 05220 0523

1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

'4
Historical Shipments of Clothes Washers, 1957 - 1996

(excluding compacts and exports)

10

9

8

7

6

5-

4

3

2

1

1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Shipments of Clothes Washers

(excluding compacts and exports)

10

9 -iHistory Projected

4 -1· < -regress 20 years

9 -/ ~~~~ ~ ~ - - regress 40 years

3 *0 - regress 30 years

8 -

4 regress 20 years

OIf. regress 10 years

1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Shipments of Clothes Washers

(excluding compacts and exports)

10

9 History Projected

-o- Historical (1957-1996)

-- Total Shipment (1981-2030)

7 - -o- Replacement Units

e- New Units to New Houses

6

5

4

3 -

2-

0 -

1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Historical and Calculated Shipment (millions) of Automatic Clothes Washers

Standard only, not including compact and wringer

:A8AM5I iAM mU tIc, Illter.lI CiuI. Shlpment Regres R.ege Regr Rrgte

,11E0 USSHlpaimn i Expert|i ShIpment DomnesIc kepl. New TotlI (1987-1996) (l1977-1996) (19671996) (1957-1996)

lei. mepeur (eel import & npn [et T97199- 6(reil. irt xt) ShIpmel

compacts 72 a from 1971-1979nletrpollad (combined) -103.7925 -210.8937 -149.6605 -165A4576

(sifter 1970) AppI Magazine 1996m to 1995 0.0551 0.1088 0,0780 0.0860

1957

1958 . 9'2j AMH (1972 e 1985 us Shiptee

1999 5 ??OZ#52Ž f-2 tem Appi Mgonrier eech mat.he

1960 ¶ l A HAM Fct Bokaitr 9 1916 d

1961 $ 93 16 5c6661 I(9enet96l f-t 1980: 19c9)

1962

1963

1964 30, 5.15 5.15

19765 9 4.19606 -f 1969

1967 - high hem 1970 en heomam ii eoclmdd

197801 S (1960.1969) i3 (1960-1969) .a4043 4.7r c4mp7l 

1969 496 34.757 49 4 3737

o1970 35~.8........1:; 12 39.812

1971 8. 427i 0 d-- dl 0,064 4.206 4.206

1972 '4 40. 070 4.754 4.754

1985735 3 0.076 5.178 5.158

1974 0.082 4.631 4.631

1975 t 40.088 2 3944 3.944

1976 [ 44.28i0..4094 4.194 4.194

1977 f5. .. aim0 +0 4.639 4.639

1970 (19701979) ,43 (1970-1979) 0.106 4.732 4.732

1979 'fI41 48.245 ,,7 i797' 4.4528 0112 4.667 4.667

1980 Z.49 I421 09 4-.591 5 4.308

1991 4 277" 'l6' " '6 . 5.754 136 4.1136 3.514 0.991 4.505

1982 338I90 . 0 129 31826 3.826 2.997 0.951 3.949

1993 45446wi: L~'- u 0 I'" .431 4.431 3.035 1.449 4.484

1994 4.945 4.945 3.135 1.463 4.597

1915 3279 097- 5.182 5.182 3,988 1.473 5.460

1996 0-S795m7 6 669 5.619 4.138 1.553 5.691

t1996iliJS7 7i98l 5373 5.730 4.275 1.473 5.752

19988 :. 196' (1980-1989) i' 40 7 587 5.787 4.251 1.432 5.682

1999 02 a in32 1 93 5.867 5.867 4.174 1.74 5.547

1991 6 972- 96 5.504 5.504 4.349 1.108 5.457

199 6 5.754 5.754 4.326 1.340 5.666

1993 62 6.023 023 4.292 1.484 5.777 16;793 .7 

2015,254 7035 1~ 6141 473 14.6 5.959 .66.141 

1995 690 ,4 0112 6.076 6.070 4.172 1.61 5.791

1996 : 35 0.825L 6.210 6.210 4.015 1.738 5.753

1997 4.191 1.429 5.620 6.173 6.402 6.141 6.241

1998 4.468 1.467 5.935 6,228 66.11 6.219 6.327

1999 4.82 1.563 6.386 6.283 6.619 6.197 6.413

2000 5.103 1.618 6.721 6.338 6.72 6.375 6.499

2001 5.254 1.646 6.900 6.394 6.837 6.453 6.515

2002 5.254 1.670 6.925 6.449 6.946 6.531 6.671

2003 5.193 1.711 6.903 6.504 7.085 6.609 6.757

2010 5.156 15.728 688 6559 7.164 6.687 6.843

2005 5.174 1.726 6.899 6.614 7.272 6.765 6.929

2OD6 5.259 1.732 6.990 6.669 7.381 6.843 7.015

2007 5.347 1.754 7.102 6.724 7.490 6.921 7.101

2008 5.401 1.744 7.146 6.779 7.599 6.999 7.187

2009 5.391 1.721 7.112 6.834 7.708 7.077 7.273

2010 5.383 1.728 7.112 6.89 7.816 7.155 7.359

2011 5.452 1.765 7.217 6.944 7.925 7.233 7.445

2012 5.635 1.807 7.441 6.999 8,034 7.311 7.531

2013 5.893 1.832 7.725 7.054 8.143 7.389 7.617

2014 6.156 1.837 7.993 7.109 8.252 7.467 7.703

2015 6.346 1.820 8.165 7.164 8.360 7.545 7.789

2016 6.439 1.823 8.263 7.220 8.469 7.623 7.715

2017 6.468 1.828 8.296 7.275 8.578 7.701 7.961

2018 6.479 1.833 8.312 7.330 8.687 7.779 8.047

2019 6.509 1.834 8.343 7.385 8.796 7.857 8.133

2020 6.559 1.834 8.393 7.440 8.905 7.935 8.219

2021 6.610 1.834 8.444 7.495 9.013 8.013 8.305

2022 6.649 1.834 8.485 7.550 9,122 8.091 8.390

2023 6.679 1.834 0.513 7.605 9.231 8.169 8.476

2024 6.732 1.834 8.566 7.660 9.340 8.247 8.562

2025 6.94 1.834 8.675 7.715 9.449 8.325 8.648

2026 7:016 1834 8.850 7.770 9357 8.403 8.734

2027 7.232 1.834 9.066 7.825 9.666 8.481 8.820

2028 7.444 1,834 9.278 7.880 9.775 8.559 8.906

2029 7.616 1.834 9.450 7.935 9.884 8.637 8.992

2030 7.730 1.834 9.564 7.990 9.993 11.715 9.078
Clothes Washer Shipment Calculation

SF MF MB

% Jla. lancwvanL l a~ 1993 % \% 1%

max nw aniono 100% 97% 97f

N Sr MwjS l R bi, RP1 IV,. RPIA

Y-ar Skipmnl Shipmll U/ts Untz Uai N VU.i. SF MF MB SF MF MB SF MF MB SF MF MB SF MF MB RECS Calculated

1957 2.71 2.78

1951 2.71 .56 am.

1959 2.9 .50 am0.00

1960 156 i11.06 .o

1961 .67 13.72 am0.00

162 2.91 16.70 am.

1963 3o 20.0 m 0am

1964 3.54 23.M 0 .

196 5 .7727,.310.00

1966 3.9 31.20 am0.00

1967 3.88 35.01 am.

196 4.10 39.11 0 .

1969 4,07 42.17 0.39

1970 3.81 45.67 1 .00

197t 1 4.21 47.0 1.72

1972 4.75 49.0 2 132

1973 5.16 51.39 2.68

1974 4.63 53.38 2.76

1975 3.94 4.50 2.84

1976 4.19 55.57 3.

1977 4 .64 56.79 3.24

1978 4.73 57.15 3.48

1910 4.9 59-71 . 3.1 ,13 1.14 4.97 f6,1* 284q 65J.% 94.7i 37.9 7W4J% ri56;(1^ 20M.||4O , |0. 703 173.3»

1914s I.o0 33 3.93 3.51 0.99 4.530 lq: ; :i A ~iNN:Ei..ljl :=?.il I am am a" o.o64 7 3.5 726A

19. 3.95 6 00 3.97 3.00 0.95 3.95 8.,% 29.6% 65.9% 93.8% 3J09 7.6I% i| i 056 oD0 0.74 .i~?,^ 7Q3* 7,.9.

1983 4, 4 6 ." 4.01 3.03 1.45 4.48 86.;% 30. 76MM. J 9J.%o 3d.2%L 76.6% 57.65 23.00 4.40 1.12 0.4 0.00 703% 71.3%

195 5.46 3 .35 J.9 1.47 5.46 S9 32.1% 69^ 9132% 37J% 78$% S8.53 24.07 5.10 0.14 20 all 2m 71.6 7110*

1916 5.69 63.11 4.56 4.14 1.55 J.69 .% 3.3% 71.7 94.2% 39.6% 7.4% 9.47 24.53 5.10 0.2M 0.16 O.4 72L4 M01.

1987 5.75 63.99 4.61 4.27 IA.4 5.75 8::*^ a i

^

s

'

a i

^^ t I'

a

~i^..^^ E

I iS^^^'SS^ 1^ aA 1 a

SS 0.

23 73

.3% M

a

.

7

1918 5.61 65.25 4. 4 4.25 1.43 5.6 91.0% 32.J3% 76.6 95.8% 52.3% 84.1% 61.72 24.81 5.14 0. 0.60 all 74,1% 71.2

1919 5.55 66.71 4.44 4.17 1.37 5.55 91.8% 32.1% 79.1% 96.2% 62.7% 7.9% 63.04 24.61 5.17 0. 0.3am 7 0.16 75.3J 71.9%

190 5.412 67.76 4.40 4.16 L.,6 5.42 I ~ ~L? g~: ~.[ ?:.~ am 0,49 0.15 7 JU ,LI

1991 3416 68.55 41.47 4.35 1.11 5.46 92.9%3 JIJ% 82% 97.7» 73.9n 9 .7% mmt a2 0 .M5 76A6% 7Ma

19 567 60.46 4.63 4.33 *1.34 5.67 93.2% 31% 83.1j% 98,6» 74.7» 93.6% 0.2 02 0.09: 76.8t n5J% 1993 5. 70 . 53 4.71 4

2

9. 1

4 5.'" 72~I "*6

% 75.4 94.6% 0.3 0.

22 0l 3 77

.

1

% 73..

"194 5.96 71.77 4.61 4.27 1.69 5.96 I00.0f 762% 95.5| 0.21 0.11 (),19 733%

M1995 35.79 73.. 4.31 4.17 I.62 5.79 1000ft 76.9f 96.fa': :' 0.21 o. I .19 73-9

196 5.735 74.711 4.44 4.02 1.74 5.75 100 77-7% 97.0M : ^ 0.30 (,12 MM4 6»

1997 ,62 5.5 4.54 4.19 1.43 5.62 1 7L.5» 7.01t 0. 0.11 0.20 ItA1

1998 5953 76.74 4.2 4.47 1.47 5.93 100.0L 79.3» 97.0" | ; ;6- | ' Mn' 0.22 0.11 0.21 75.1V

199 9 639 77.5, 5.18 4.2 1.56 6.3 l t.. 97 .09 ' lS°~ '^"''T"^^'-~'^" " ' ':t 0V.2 0.11 0.21 7.5.1

200 6.7 79.601 547 5.110 1.64 6.72 Imo m0 m 92» 97.09 O.26 0Q/ 0.11 0.21 75.2%

20? 6I 0 79.79 5.62 5.25 1.-63 6.90 (lmO 81.7% 97M.0' ^^ I 0.sa °

23 all 0.° 22 7

!.%i

2 6. 81.10 .63 5.2 1.67 6.,91 I 10 98.05 9i7.0. |?4~:~ 0.2" 0.1 0.2u 7.9

2023 1491 .3 96.90 7 .19 1.71 6.90 1000% 973.3% 97.o0 L~ ^^^I$;3 Ml9!~ .2. a O (.22 7629

20 6.90 1 3.92 .54 5.16 13 . 100.0, 84.1- 97.0 0. 2 012 0.22 76.*

205 6.90 15.27 5.546 3.17 1.n 6.90 I(« 10 ST.0 97.04 r l° MU^^^^^^^^J 0.12 02 71-2%

2()6 6M9 16.53 5.65 3.26 1.73 6.99 10ET% 15.8, 97.0% ^^^^|ji^^^| || 4 .2 023 71.5%

2007 7.10 7.81 3.74 5.35 1.75 7.10 10-,0» IN.7» 97-.0 i MU^^^^^^^^^^ 1

^^^^' 1

^^ ^^ ° 12 0.

23 7

1-P

................... 13. 5.4 S74 IS16 .7 . 17,6-tt.S. 97. .24 .12 M..2 .. 7..

200 7.11 9WAS1 3.7 5.39 1.72 7.11 10Q.Oa 8I.4« 97.0- 5^^^^^^p3»^ a23 013 .23 7»94»

21& 7.11 S1.71 5.79 5.8 1 7.11 1 0 B9.3» 7. iS&^^ 023 013 0.23. 7

1011 1 7.22 P93.20 5.86 5.45 1.77 7-22 Rettrtng =ntt 10mo% 912R 97.0ntt 0.25 01¢ 0.24 929A

012 7.4411 94.49 -6.05 3.63 1.81 7.44 Strt) of I10M0 91.1- 97Un0t a(Hln ao . 79 n5 ho

1013 1.13 95.. 6.31 S.., I.., n.IJ M M 0.21 "A.

W. 714 7J19 9.M 9 6.57 6.16 1.84 7.99 C)MET 919 97.0» 0.26 013 m 0. 79-8%

015 U1. 1 99,13 6.7 .7 6435 !.a 8.17 10MM 93.9- 97.0M CB^^^^^^^^^ 0.26 a14 0.2 80.0%

2016 8.M6 99M W 6. " 6.44 1. 2 8.2A 10a0 94.8« 97.0» |ia^^l.f~ia^^ 0.26 014 024 W3%

217 830 100-90 6.90 6.47 1.83 9.30 9I9l&1 95.1 917.0 ^j^^^tlt^"^ 0.27 0.14 025 B0.7»

011 8.13110 I31 6.91 6.1 1.83 8.31 100 9677» 970 - siat^M^^B^^^^ 0.1 0.14 0.27 M5 81.0

2019 834 103-70 6.94 6.31 1.83 i.34 100.0» 97.0% 97.0» ^^^^g^^^^ ^J^^^^^^ 0.27 014 025 81.4%

2020 8.39 1 I0.0 7.0 6.56 1.93 8.39 mm0.09 97.0% 97.09 017 0.1 023 II .1.%

221 1.44 106" . 7.05 6.61 1.83 1.44 I, 97.0» 97. muSoa Mi.0 0,23 fl3%

=222 .48 107.74 7.10 6.65 1.3 A.4 100 97.0» 97.0tt 97M l^^^t^^S.Ml 0

.2 1MIT M" Z2 l

203 *Jl 10?.13 7.13 6.1 1.83 1-31 10 " 97.0 97.0 021 0.15 025 B2h%6

24 8IJ7 110O,1 7 1.19 6.73 1.13 8.,57 10a0% 97.0 97.0" ^^^^^^^ 0.28 M13 025 19%.

2025 87 S111.13 7.30 C6M8 1.I3 8.67 1000 OJT 97.0» 97.0» ^^^^^Pj^^ o%° a l 5 a

m 83.1%

2026 1.813 113.12 7.48 IS.M 1.83 1.13 I10)% 97.0» 97.0M ^^^^M^^^^^ ^^^^^^^^1 0°

2 9

°-

15

°- 68

3

.

4

%

207 9,07 11.M4 7.69 7.23 1.13 9.07 - I ml000 97.0 97.0"t 029 0.13 026 .3.6«

22 9.21` 115.55 7.91 7.44 1.3 9.2U l0)00 97.0» 97-0» ^^ ^^^^^^ ^i^. 29 -1 026 83.7.

2M29 9A5 i& 116.79 0 7.6 1I 0 94 100 971"k 97.01 nr - <1-

30 0

-

16 a 2&

'

3

.

1

230 6 MM 9,56 100I0* 97.0ft 97.0ft |^^%g^^.l^| 0.30 0.16 M.26- __ 4.2

llll^K~it*^'^ ^^^^// <"

tr

an ^

ar s Burrau ofCwms Rctnelmt to 0

R,,L uVIftt Retiesunits.(h rptr) R g * l. M11) M O 199

f/e» Ualas Hoits.lat, Sta~rts) * (uil~uruadnioa of ) oss
retirement function

Retirement Function of Clothes Washer

Age 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

Fraction Retired 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

Fraction Surviving 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Fraction Retired = Fraction of original shipment retired as a function of age

Fraction Surviving = Fraction of original shipment surviving as a function of age

Using Fraction Surviving to Represent Vintage of Different Ages

Calculate the % of each Vintage Groups Surviving and Retiring in the Next Year

Vintage Age Next Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

Surviving Rate by Vintage surv_vintage 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Retiring Rate by Vintage ret_vintage 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

Surviving Rate by Vintage = % of each vintage group surviving in the next year

Retiring Rate by Vintage = % of each vintage group retiring in the next year

Page 9
retirement function

12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 Avg Life

0.139 0.222 0.250 0.222 0.139 0.028 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 14.084

0.861 0.639 0.389 0.167 0.028 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25

0.861 0.742 0.609 0.429 0.168 0.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

0.139 0.258 0.391 0.571 0.832 1.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

Page 10
Sheet2

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0.870378085

R Square 0.757558012

Adjusted R Square 0.744089012

Standard Error 0.374147952

Observations 20

ANOVA

df SS MS F significance F

Regression 1 7.873490513 7.8734905 56.244565 6.072E-07

Residual 18 2.519760424 0.1399867

Total 19 10.39325094

Coefficients Standard Error tStat P-value Lower95% Upper95% Lower95.0% Upper95.0%

Intercept -210.8937084 28.8219227 -7.3171284 8.524E-07 -271.44637 -150.34105 -271.44637 -150.34105

X Variable 1 0.108811008 0.014508835 7.4996377 6.072E-07 0.0783291 0.139293 0.0783291 0.139293

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0.706158897

R Square 0.498660388

Adjusted R Square 0.435992937

Standard Error 0.177306552

Observations 10

ANOVA

df SS MS F significance F

Regression 1 0.250156853 0.2501569 7.957247 0.0224641

Residual 8 0.251500907 0.0314376

Total 9 0.50165776

Coefficients Standard Error tStat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% Lower 95.0%Upper 95.0%

Intercept -103.7924527 38.87573133 -2.6698521 0.0283688 -193.44011 -14.144798 -193.44011 -14.144798

XVariable 1 0.055065455 0.019520809 2.8208593 0.0224641 0.0100504 0.1000805 0.0100504 0.1000805

Page 2
SUMMARY OUTPUT FOR REGRESSING 40 YEARS (1957-1996)

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0.9338

R Square 0.8719

Adjusted R Square 0.8685

Standard Error 0.3903

Observations 40

ANOVA

df SS MS F Significance F

Regression 1 39.40076921 39.400769 258.68247 1.51257E-18

Residual 38 5.787903621 0.1523133

Total 39 45.18867284

Coefficients Standard Error tStat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% Lower 95.0%Upper 95.0%

Intercept -165.4575914 10.5659723 -15.659476 3.667E-18 -186.8472848 -144.0679 -186.84728 -144.0679

XVariable 1 0.085978279 0.005345708 16.083609 1.513E-18 0.075156458 0.0968001 0.0751565 0.0968001

SUMMARY OUTPUT FOR REGRESSING 30 YEARS (1967-1996)

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0.8587

R Square 0.7374

Adjusted R Square 0.7280

Standard Error 0.4172

Observations 30

ANOVA

df SS MS F Significance F

Regression 1 13.67994879 13.679949 78.609381 1.2785E-09

Residual 28 4.872682655 0.1740244

Total 29 18.55263145

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% Lower 95.0%Upper 95.0%

Intercept -149.6605347 17.43626328 -8.5832917 2.503E-09 -185.377141 -113.94393 -185.37714 -113.94393

X Variable 1 0.078017564 0.008799443 8.8661931 1.278E-09 0.059992701 0.0960424 0.0599927 0.0960424

$»