United States General Accounting Office 

GAO Testimony 

Before the Committee on Commerce, 


Science, and Transportation 


United States Senate 


For Release on Delivery 

Expected at 9:30 a.m. 

Wednesday, October 1, 2003 CLIMATE CHANGE 

Preliminary Observations 

on the Administration’s 

February 2002 Climate 

Initiative 

Statement of John B. Stephenson, Director 

Natural Resources and Environment 

GAO-04-131T 

Highlights of GAO-04-131T, a report to 

Senate Committee on Commerce, 

Science, and Transportation 

In 2002, the Administration 

announced its Global Climate 

Change Initiative. It included, 

among other things, a goal 

concerning U.S. carbon dioxide and 

other greenhouse gas emissions, 

which are widely believed to affect 

the earth’s climate. 

The Administration’s general goal 

was to reduce the growth rate of 

emissions, but not total emissions, 

between 2002 and 2012. Its specific 

goal was to reduce emissions 

intensity 18 percent, 4 percentage 

points more than the 14 percent 

decline already expected. 

Emissions intensity measures the 

amount of greenhouse gases 

emitted per unit of economic 

output. In the United States, this 

ratio has generally decreased for 50 

years or more. Under the Initiative, 

emissions would increase, but less 

than otherwise expected. 

GAO was asked to testify on 

whether the Administration’s 

publicly available documents (1) 

explain the basis for the Initiative’s 

general and specific goals, (2) 

identify elements to help reduce 

emissions and contribute to the 18 

percent reduction goal, as well as 

their specific contributions, and (3) 

discuss plans to track progress in 

meeting the goal. 

This testimony is based on ongoing 

work, and GAO expects to issue a 

final report on this work later this 

year. Because of time constraints, 

GAO’s testimony is based on its 

analysis of publicly available 

Administration documents. 

www.gao.gov/cgi-bin/getrpt?GAO-04-131T. 

To view the full product, including the scope 

and methodology, click on the link above. 

For more information, contact John B. 

Stephenson at (202) 512-3841. 

October 1, 2003 

CLIMATE CHANGE 

Preliminary Observations on the 

Administration's February 2002 Climate 

Initiative 

The Administration stated that the Initiative’s general goal is to slow the 

growth of U.S. greenhouse gas emissions, but it did not provide a basis for its 

specific goal of reducing emissions intensity 18 percent by 2012. Any 

reduction in emissions above the 14-percent reduction already anticipated 

would contribute to this general goal. However, GAO did not find a specific 

basis or rationale for the Administration’s decision to establish a 4-

percentage-point reduction goal beyond the already expected reductions. 

The Administration identified 30 elements that it expected would reduce 

U.S. emissions and contribute to meeting its 18 percent reduction goal by 

2012. The 30 elements include a range of policy tools (such as regulations, 

research and development, tax incentives, and other activities) that cover 

four broad areas: (1) improving renewable energy and certain industrial 

power systems, (2) improving fuel economy, (3) promoting domestic carbon 

sequestration (for example, the absorption of carbon dioxide by trees to 

offset emissions), and (4) challenging business to reduce emissions. GAO 

found that the Administration provided estimates of the reductions 

associated with 11 of the 30 elements, but not with the remaining 19 

elements. Of these 11 estimates, GAO found that 3 estimates represented 

future emissions reductions related to activities that occurred after the 

Initiative was announced. However, the other 8 estimates represented past 

or current emissions reductions or related to activities that were already 

underway before the Initiative was announced. Specifically, 

• 	 In five cases, an estimate is provided for current or recent reductions, 

but no information is provided about the expected additional savings to 

be achieved by 2012, the end of the Initiative. 

• 	 In two cases, the elements are expected to yield savings over many 

years, but it is not clear what emissions reductions will be achieved by 

2012. 

• 	 In one case, savings are counted for an activity that began prior to the 

announcement of the Initiative. 

It is, therefore, unclear to what extent the 30 elements will contribute to the 

goal of reducing emissions and, thus, lowering emissions intensity by 2012. 

The Administration plans to determine, in 2012, whether the 18-percent 

reduction goal was met. Unless the Administration conducts one or more 

interim assessments, it will not be in a position to determine, until a decade 

after announcing the Initiative, whether its efforts are having the intended 

effect or whether additional efforts may be warranted. 
Mr. Chairman and Members of the Committee: 

We are pleased to be here today to discuss our preliminary observations 

on certain aspects of the Administration’s February 2002 Global Climate 

Change Initiative. This Initiative included, among other things, a goal 

related to domestic emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse 

gases. 

Specifically, the Initiative established the goal of reducing U.S. emissions 

intensity 18-percent by 2012, which is 4 percentage points more than the 

14-percent reduction that was otherwise expected to occur. In 2012, this 

4-percent reduction in emissions intensity is expected to translate into a 

100 million ton reduction in carbon emissions below levels that would be 

expected in the absence of the Initiative. The Initiative is comprised of 30 

elements, including partnerships with industry and tax credits, designed to 

achieve the reduction in emissions intensity. 

It is important to note that the Administration’s goal is to reduce emissions 

intensity, not total emissions. Emissions intensity measures the amount of 

greenhouse gases emitted per unit of economic output. For example, in 

1990, U.S. emissions totaled 1,909 million metric tons of carbon equivalent 

and economic output (or Gross Domestic Product) totaled $9,216 billion.1 

Dividing these numbers yields an emission intensity ratio of 207 tons of 

emissions per million dollars of economic output. Emissions intensity 

changes in response to variations in either emissions or economic output. 

For example, if emissions increase more slowly than economic output 

increases, the ratio decreases. If emissions increase more quickly than 

economic output increases, the ratio increases. If emissions and economic 

output increase by the same proportion, emissions intensity does not 

change. 

Our testimony, which is based on ongoing work, discusses the extent to 

which the Administration’s public documents (1) explain the basis for its 

general goal of reducing emissions and its specific goal of reducing 

emissions intensity 18 percent by 2012, (2) explain how the elements 

included in the Administration’s Initiative are expected to reduce 

1

To allow for comparisons among greenhouse gases, which differ in terms of their effects 

on the atmosphere and their expected lifetimes, emissions are sometimes measured in 

million metric tons of carbon equivalent (which we refer to as million metric tons). The 

economic output number is expressed in 1996 dollars. 

Page 1 GAO-04-131T Climate Change Initiative 
emissions and contribute to the goal of reducing emissions intensity 18 

percent, and (3) discuss the Administration’s plans to track progress 

toward meeting the goal. We expect to issue a final report on the results 

of our work later this year. 

Our testimony is based on our analysis of the Administration’s February 

2002 Global Climate Change Policy Book and subsequent White House fact 

sheets, as well as congressional testimony by administration officials, an 

August 2003 report on federal climate change spending,2

 and related 

documents. Because of time constraints, we limited our work to 

reviewing these documents. 

We performed our work between July and September 2003 in accordance 

with generally accepted government auditing standards. 

In summary, in our review of the Administration’s documents, we found Summary 	 that the Administration provided a general basis for its climate goal, but 

did not provide a detailed rationale for the emissions intensity target that it 

established. That is, we did not find a specific justification for the 

additional 4-percentage-point reduction--as opposed to any other target 

that could have been established—or what achieving a 4-percent reduction 

is specifically intended to accomplish. 

The Administration’s documents identified 30 elements that it expects to 

help reduce greenhouse gas emissions, but did not consistently provide 

information on how each element would contribute to the approximately 

100 million metric tons that it estimates the Initiative will save in 2012. In 

11 cases, the Administration provided an estimate of the element’s 

contributions, but in 19 other cases it did not provide such an estimate. 

Moreover, while 3 of the 11 estimates represented future savings levels 

related to activities that occurred after the Initiative was announced, the 

other 8 estimates were based upon past or current savings levels or were 

related to elements that were underway before the Initiative was 

announced. Furthermore, we found no current and comprehensive source 

for information about all 30 of the Initiative’s elements and their expected 

contributions toward achieving the goal of the Initiative. 

2

Federal Climate Change Expenditures: Report to Congress, Aug. 2003. 

Page 2 GAO-04-131T Climate Change Initiative 
Background 

Finally, the Administration states that it plans to determine, in 2012, 

whether the goal of reducing emissions intensity was met. However, the 

documents we reviewed did not indicate whether it plans to assess its 

progress in the interim. Unless the Administration conducts one or more 

interim assessments, it will not be in a position to determine, until a 

decade after announcing the Initiative, whether its efforts to meet the goal 

are having the intended effect or whether additional efforts may be 

warranted. 

To help the Congress credibly assess the likelihood that the Initiative will 

achieve its stated goal, we believe that it would be helpful if the 

Administration would make readily available more current and complete 

information regarding the basis for establishing its emissions intensity 

goal, the elements intended to help achieve it as well as their expected 

contributions, and plans for monitoring interim progress toward the goal. 

Providing such information would constitute a small, but important step 

toward addressing broader issues in the policy debate now before the 

Congress about the challenges posed by global climate change. 

Carbon dioxide and certain other gases trap some of the sun’s heat in the 

earth’s atmosphere and prevent it from returning to space. The trapped 

energy warms the earth’s climate, much as glass in a greenhouse. Hence, 

the gases that cause this effect are often referred to as greenhouse gases. 

In the United States, the most prevalent greenhouse gas is carbon dioxide, 

which results from the combustion of coal and other fossil fuels in power 

plants, the burning of gasoline in vehicles, and other sources. The other 

gases are methane, nitrous oxide, and three synthetic gases. In recent 

decades, concentrations of these gases have built up in the atmosphere, 

raising concerns that continuing increases might interfere with the earth’s 

climate, for example, by increasing temperatures or changing precipitation 

patterns. 

In 1997, the United States participated in drafting the Kyoto Protocol, an 

international agreement to limit greenhouse gas emissions, and in 1998 it 

signed the Protocol. However, the previous administration did not submit 

it to the Senate for advice and consent, which are required for ratification. 

In March 2001, President Bush announced that he opposed the Protocol. 

In addition to the emissions intensity goal and domestic elements 

intended to help achieve it, the President’s February 2002 climate initiative 

includes (1) new and expanded international policies, such as increasing 

funding for tropical forests, which sequester carbon dioxide, (2) enhanced 

Page 3 GAO-04-131T Climate Change Initiative 
Administration’s 

Public Documents 

Provide a Context But 

Not a Specific Basis 

for the 18-percent 

Goal 

science and technology, such as developing and deploying advanced 

energy and sequestration technologies, and (3) an improved registry of 

reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. According to testimony by the 

Chairman of the White House Council on Environmental Quality, the 

President’s climate change strategy was produced by a combined working 

group of the Domestic Policy Council, National Economic Council, and 

National Security Council. 

While U.S. greenhouse gas emissions have increased significantly, the 

Energy Information Administration reports that U.S. emissions intensity 

has generally been falling steadily for 50 years. This decline occurred, in 

part, because the U.S. energy supply became less carbon-intensive in the 

last half-century, as nuclear, hydropower, and natural gas were 

increasingly substituted for more carbon-intensive coal and oil to generate 

electricity. 

The Administration explained that the Initiative’s general goal is to slow 

the growth of U.S. greenhouse gas emissions, but it did not explain the 

basis for its specific goal of reducing emissions intensity 18 percent by 

2012 or what a 4-percent reduction is specifically designed to accomplish. 

Reducing emissions growth by 4 percentage points more than is currently 

expected would achieve the general goal, but—on the basis of our review 

of the fact sheets and other documents--we found no specific basis for 

establishing a 4-percentage-point change, as opposed to a 2- or 6-

percentage-point change, for example, relative to the already anticipated 

reductions. 

According to the Administration’s analysis, emissions under its Initiative 

will increase between 2002 and 2012, but at a slower rate than otherwise 

expected. Specifically, according to Energy Information Administration 

(EIA) projections cited by the Administration, without the Initiative 

emissions will increase from 1,917 million metric tons in 2002 to 2,279 

million metric tons in 2012. Under the Initiative, emissions will increase to 

2,173 million metric tons in 2012, which is 106 million metric tons less than 

otherwise expected. We calculated that under the Initiative, emissions 

would be reduced from 23,162 million metric tons to 22,662 million metric 

tons cumulatively for the period 2002-12. This difference of 500 million 

metric tons represents a 2-percent decrease for the 11-year period. 

Because economic output will increase faster than emissions between 

2002 and 2012, according to EIA’s projections, emissions intensity is 

estimated to decline from 183 tons per million dollars of output in 2002 to 

158 tons per million dollars in 2012 (a 14-percent decline) without the 

Page 4 GAO-04-131T Climate Change Initiative 
Administration’s 

Public Documents 

Estimated 

Contributions for 

Some, but Not All, of 

the Initiative’s 

Elements 

Initiative, and to 150 tons per million dollars under the Initiative (an 18-

percent decline). 

The Administration identified 30 elements (26 in February 2002 and 

another 4 later) that it expected would help reduce U.S. emissions by 2012 

and, thus, contribute to meeting its 18-percent goal. These 30 elements 

include regulations, research and development, tax incentives, and other 

activities. (The elements are listed in Appendix I.) The Administration 

groups them into four broad categories, as described below. 

Providing incentives and programs for renewable energy and certain 

industrial power systems. Six tax credits and seven other elements are 

expected to increase the use of wind and other renewable resources, 

combined heat-and-power systems, and other activities. The tax credits 

cover electricity from wind and new hybrid or fuel-cell vehicles, among 

other things. Other elements would provide funding for geothermal 

energy, primarily in the western United States, and advancing the use of 

hydropower, wind, and other resources on public lands. Still other 

elements involve research and development on fusion energy and other 

sources. 

Improving fuel economy. Three efforts relating to automotive technology 

and two other elements are expected to improve fuel economy. The 

technology efforts include advances in hydrogen-based fuel cells and lowcost fuel cells. Two of the five elements are mandatory. First, a regulation 

requiring the installation of tire pressure monitoring systems in cars and 

certain other vehicles was finalized in June 2002 and will be phased in 

between 2003 and 2006.3 Properly inflated tires improve fuel efficiency. 

Second, a regulation requiring an increase in the fuel economy of light 

trucks, from the current 20.7 miles per gallon to 22.2 miles per gallon in 

2007, was finalized in April 2003.

4 

Promoting domestic carbon sequestration. Four U.S. Department of 

Agriculture programs were identified as promoting carbon sequestration 

on farms, forests, and wetlands. Among other things, these programs are 

intended to accelerate tree planting and converting cropland to grassland 

or forests. 

3

Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards; Tire Pressure Monitoring Systems; Controls and 

Displays, 67 Fed. Reg. 38704 (2002)(to be codified at 49 C.F.R. pts. 571 and 596). 

4

Light Truck Average Fuel Economy Standards, Model Years 2005-2007, Final Rule, 68 Fed. 

Reg. 16868 (2003)(to be codified at 49 C.F.R. pt. 533). 

Page 5 GAO-04-131T Climate Change Initiative 
Challenging business to reduce emissions. Voluntary initiatives to reduce 

greenhouse gases were proposed for U.S. businesses. For major 

companies that agreed to establish individual goals for reducing their 

emissions, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) launched a new 

Climate Leaders Program. In addition, certain companies in the 

aluminum, natural gas, semiconductor, and underground coal mining 

sectors have joined voluntary partnerships with EPA to reduce their 

emissions. Finally, certain agricultural companies have joined two 

voluntary partnerships with EPA and the Department of Agriculture to 

reduce their emissions. 

The Administration provided some information for all 30 of the Initiative’s 

elements, including, in some cases, estimates of previous or anticipated 

emission reductions. However, inconsistencies in the nature of this 

information make it difficult to determine how contributions from the 

individual elements would achieve the total reduction of about 100 million 

metric tons in 2012. First, estimates were not provided for 19 the 

Initiative’s elements. Second, for the 11 elements for which estimates 

were provided, we found that 8 were not clearly attributable to the 

Initiative because the reductions (1) were related to an activity already 

included in ongoing programs or (2) were not above previous or current 

levels. We did find, however, that the estimated reductions for the 

remaining 3 elements appear attributable to the Initiative. 

We have concerns about some of the 19 emission reduction elements for 

which the Administration did not provide savings estimates. At least two 

of these elements seem unlikely to yield emissions savings by 2012. For 

example, the April 2003 fact sheet listed hydrogen energy as an additional 

measure, even though it also stated a goal of commercializing hydrogen 

vehicles by 2020, beyond the scope of the Initiative. Similarly, the same 

fact sheet listed a coal-fired, zero-emissions power plant as an additional 

measure, but described the project as a 10-year demonstration; this means 

that the power plant would not finish its demonstration phase until the last 

year of the Initiative, much less be commercialized by then. 

Of the 11 elements for which estimates were provided, we found that the 

estimated reductions for 8 were not clearly attributable to the Initiative. In 

five cases, an estimate is provided for a current or recent savings level, but 

no information is provided about the expected additional savings to be 

achieved by 2012. For example, the Administration states that aluminum 

producers reduced their emissions by 1.8 million metric tons to meet a 

goal in 2000, but it does not identify future savings, if any. Similarly, it 

Page 6 GAO-04-131T Climate Change Initiative 
states that Agriculture’s Environmental Quality Incentives Program, which 

provides assistance to farmers for planning and implementing soil and 

water conservation practices, reduced emissions by 12 million metric tons 

in 2002. However, while the Administration sought more funding for the 

program in fiscal year 2003, it did not project any additional emissions 

reductions from the program. 

In two cases, it is not clear how much of the claimed savings will occur by 

the end of the Initiative in 2012. The requirement that cars and certain 

other vehicles have tire pressure monitoring systems is expected to yield 

savings of between 0.3 and 1.3 million metric tons a year when applied to 

the entire vehicle fleet. However, it will take years for such systems to be 

incorporated in the entire fleet and it is not clear how much of these 

savings will be achieved by 2012. Similarly, the required increase in light 

truck fuel economy is expected to result in savings of 9.4 million metric 

tons over the lifetime of the vehicles covered. Again, because these 

vehicles have an estimated lifetime of 25 years, it is not clear how much 

savings will be achieved by 2012. 

In one case, savings are counted for an activity that does not appear to be 

directly attributable to the Initiative. Specifically, in March 2001 (nearly a 

year before the Initiative was announced), EPA and the Semiconductor 

Industry Association signed a voluntary agreement to reduce emissions by 

an estimated 13.7 million metric tons by 2010. Because this agreement 

was signed before the Initiative was announced, it is not clear that the 

estimated reductions should be considered as additions to the already 

anticipated amount. 

Estimates for the remaining 3 of the 11 elements appear to be attributable 

to the Initiative in that they represent reductions beyond previous or 

current levels and are associated with expanded program activities. These 

are: 

• 	 Agriculture’s Conservation Reserve Program was credited with 

additional savings of 4 million metric tons a year. This program 

assists farm owners and operators to conserve and improve soil, 

water, air, and wildlife resources and results in carbon sequestration. 

• 	 Agriculture’s Wetland Reserve Program was credited with additional 

savings of 2 million metric tons a year. This program helps convert 

cropland on wetland soils to grassland or forest and also sequesters 

carbon emissions. 

Page 7 GAO-04-131T Climate Change Initiative 
• 	 The Environmental Protection Agency’s Natural Gas STAR Program 

was credited with additional savings of 2 million metric tons a year. 

This program works with companies in the natural gas industry to 

reduce losses of methane during production, transmission, 

distribution, and processing. 

More current information about certain of these elements and their 

expected contributions has been made public, but has not been 

consolidated with earlier information about the Initiative. For example, 

the Department of Agriculture’s web site includes a June 2003 fact sheet 

on that agency’s programs that contribute to carbon sequestration. Among 

other things, the fact sheet estimated that the Environmental Quality 

Incentives Program, cited above, will reduce emissions 7.1 million metric 

tons in 2012. However, we did not find that such information had been 

consolidated with the earlier information, and there appears to be no 

comprehensive source for information about all of the elements intended 

to help achieve the Initiative’s goal and their expected contributions. The 

lack of consistent and comprehensive information makes it difficult for 

relevant stakeholders and members of the general public to assess the 

merits of the Initiative. 

Administration’s 

Public Documents Do 

Not Discuss Plans for 

Monitoring Interim 

Progress 

According to the February 2002 fact sheet, progress in meeting the 18-

percent goal will be assessed in 2012, the final year of the Initiative. At 

that point, the fact sheet states that if progress is not sufficient and if 

science justifies additional action, the United States will respond with 

further policies; these policies may include additional incentives and 

voluntary programs. The fact sheets did not indicate whether the 

Administration plans to check its progress before 2012. Such an interim 

assessment, for example, after 5 years, would help the Administration 

determine whether it is on course to meet the goal in 2012 and, if not, 

whether it should consider additional elements to help meet the goal. 

Mr. Chairman, this concludes our prepared statement. We would be happy 

to respond to any questions that you or Members of the Committee may 

have. 

Contacts and Acknowledgments 

For further information about this testimony, please contact me at 

(202) 512-3841. John Delicath, Anne K. Johnson, Karen Keegan, David 

Marwick, and Kevin Tarmann made key contributions to this statement. 

Page 8 GAO-04-131T Climate Change Initiative 
Appendix I Appendix I 

Table 1: Summary of Initiative’s Elements Expected to Reduce 

Greenhouse Gas Emissions 

Number Measure 

Providing tax incentives and programs for renewable energy and certain industrial 

power systems 

1 Tax credit for combined heat and power systems 

2 EPA Combined Heat and Power Partnership 

3 Department of Energy challenge to heat and power industry 

4 Tax credit for residential solar energy systems 

5 Tax credit for electricity from wind and certain biomass sources 

6 Tax credit for electricity from additional biomass sources 

7 Tax credit for new methane landfill projects 

8 Tax credit for new hybrid or fuel-cell vehiclesa 

9 Funding for geothermal energy 

10 Renewable energy on public lands 

11 Hydrogen energy 

12 Coal-fired, zero-emissions electricity generation 

13 Fusion energy 

Improving fuel economy 

14 Advancing hydrogen-based fuel cells 

15 Department of Energy public-private projects for low-cost fuel cell technology 

16 Fuel economy standards for light trucks 

17 Tire pressure monitoring systems 

18 High-efficiency automobile technology 

Promoting domestic carbon sequestration 

19 Conservation Reserve Program 

20 Environmental Quality Incentives Program 

21 Wetland Reserve Program 

22 Forest Stewardship Program 

Challenging business to decrease emissions 

23 EPA Climate Leaders Program 

24 Semiconductor industry 

25 Aluminum producers 

26 EPA Natural Gas STAR Program 

27 EPA Coal Bed Methane Outreach Program 

28 AgSTAR Program 

29 Ruminant Livestock Efficiency Program 

30 Climate VISION Partnership 

Source: Data from Global Climate Change Policy Book, Feb. 2002; White House 

Fact Sheets, July 2002 and April 2003; analysis by GAO. 

a

Also listed in improving fuel economy category. 

360409 Page 9 GAO-04-131T Climate Change Initiative 
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