ref2014.d102413a **2011 2012**  **2013 2014** 



### ReportAnnual Energy Outlook 2014 Early Release Scenarioref2014 Datekeyd102413a Release Date December 2013



## 11. Petroleum and Other Liquids Supply and Disposition (million barrels per day, unless otherwise noted)
**Supply and Disposition 2011**  **2012 2013**  **2014**

**Crude Oil** Domestic Crude Production 1/ 5.66 6.49 7.72 8.53 Alaska 0.57 0.53 0.51 0.47 Lower 48 States 5.09 5.96 7.21 8.06 Net Imports 8.89 8.43 7.36 6.45 Gross Imports 8.94 8.49 7.48 6.59 Exports 0.05 0.06 0.12 0.13 Other Crude Supply 2/ 0.27 0.09 0.23 0.16 **Total Crude Supply 14.81** **15.01 15.32** **15.14**
Other Petroleum Supply 0.85 0.10 0.07 0.03 Net Product Imports -0.25 -0.92 -0.99 -1.03 Gross Refined Product Imports 3/ 1.15 0.85 0.71 0.72 Unfinished Oil Imports 0.69 0.60 0.59 0.54 Blending Component Imports 0.72 0.62 0.61 0.60 Exports 2.81 2.98 2.89 2.89 Refinery Processing Gain 4/ 1.08 1.08 1.06 1.06 Product Stock Withdrawal 0.03 -0.06 0.00 0.00 Other Non-petroleum Supply 3.27 3.48 3.59 3.65 Supply from Renewable Sources 0.87 0.89 0.91 0.95 Ethanol 0.82 0.83 0.83 0.85 Domestic Production 0.89 0.84 0.84 0.87 Net Imports -0.07 -0.02 -0.01 -0.02 Stock Withdrawal 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Biodiesel 0.06 0.06 0.09 0.09 Domestic Production 0.06 0.06 0.08 0.09 Net Imports 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 Stock Withdrawal 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Other Biomass-derived Liquids 5/ 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 Domestic Production 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 Net Imports 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Stock Withdrawal 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Liquids from Gas 2.22 2.40 2.49 2.51 Natural Gas Plant Liquids 2.22 2.40 2.49 2.51 Gas-to-Liquids 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Liquids from Coal 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Other 6/ 0.18 0.19 0.19 0.19
**Total Primary Supply 7/ 18.94** **18.59 18.99** **18.82**
**Liquid Fuels Consumption by Fuel**  Liquefied Petroleum Gases and Other 8/ 2.30 2.32 2.41 2.42 E85 9/ 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 Motor Gasoline 10/ 8.75 8.70 8.69 8.66 Jet Fuel 11/ 1.43 1.40 1.40 1.41 Distillate Fuel Oil 12/ 3.90 3.74 3.86 3.91 of which: Diesel 3.51 3.45 3.56 3.60 Residual Fuel Oil 0.46 0.35 0.32 0.35 Other 13/ 2.08 1.97 1.94 1.95 **by Sector** Residential and Commercial 0.97 0.94 0.95 0.94 Industrial 14/ 4.45 4.42 4.52 4.62 Transportation 13.6513.4413.4613.41 Electric Power 15/ 0.14 0.10 0.09 0.09 **Total 18.92** **18.49 18.64** **18.70**
Discrepancy 16/ 0.02 0.11 0.35 0.12

Domestic Refinery Distillation Capacity 17/ 17.7 17.3 17.8 17.8 Capacity Utilization Rate (percent) 18/ 86.0 89.0 87.0 87.0 Net Import Share of Product Supplied (percent) 45.2 40.3 33.5 28.7 Net Expenditures for Imports of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products (billion 2012 dollars) 494.73313.70257.06219.52 1/ Includes lease condensate. 2/ Strategic petroleum reserve stock additions plus unaccounted for crude oil and crude stock withdrawals minus crude product supplied. 3/ Includes other hydrocarbons and alcohols. 4/ The volumetric amount by which total output is greater than input due to the processing of crude oil into products which, in total, have a lower specific gravity than the crude oil processed. 5/ Includes pyrolysis oils, biomass-derived Fischer-Tropsch liquids, biobutanol, and renewable feedstocks used for the on-site production of diesel and gasoline. 6/ Includes domestic sources of other blending components, other hydrocarbons, and ethers. 7/ Total crude supply plus other petroleum supply plus other non-petroleum supply. 8/ Includes ethane, natural gasoline, and refinery olefins. 9/ E85 refers to a blend of 85 percent ethanol (renewable) and 15 percent motor gasoline (nonrenewable). To address cold starting issues, the percentage of ethanol varies seasonally. The annual average ethanol content of 74 percent is used for this forecast.10/ Includes ethanol and ethers blended into gasoline.

11/ Includes only kerosene type. 12/ Includes distillate fuel oil from petroleum and biomass feedstocks. 13/ Includes kerosene, aviation gasoline, petrochemical feedstocks, lubricants, waxes, asphalt, road oil, still gas, special naphthas, petroleum coke, crude oil product supplied, methanol, and miscellaneous petroleum products. 14/ Includes energy for combined heat and power plants that have a non-regulatory status, and small on-site generating systems. 15/ Includes consumption of energy by electricity-only and combined heat and power plants that have a regulatory status. 16/ Balancing item. Includes unaccounted for supply, losses, and gains. 17/ End-of-year operable capacity. 18/ Rate is calculated by dividing the gross annual input to atmospheric crude oil distillation units by their operable refining capacity in barrels per calendar day. - - = Not applicable. Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. Data for 2011 and 2012 are model results and may differ from official EIA data reports. Sources: 2011 and 2012 product supplied based on: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), Monthly Energy Review, DOE/EIA-0035(2013/09) (Washington, DC, September 2013). Other 2011 data: EIA, Petroleum Supply Annual 2011, DOE/EIA-0340(2011)/1 (Washington, DC, August 2012). Other 2012 data: EIA, Petroleum Supply Annual 2012, DOE/EIA-0340(2012)/1 (Washington, DC, September 2013). Projections: EIA, AEO2014 National Energy Modeling System run ref2014.d102413a.**2015 2016**  **2017 2018**  **2019 2020**  **2021 2022**  **2023**


### Annual Energy Outlook 2014 Early Release Reference case

**2015 2016**  **2017 2018**  **2019 2020**  **2021 2022**  **2023**

9.04 9.54 9.56 9.58 9.61 9.55 9.42 9.29 9.19 0.46 0.46 0.47 0.47 0.45 0.44 0.41 0.39 0.37 8.57 9.08 9.09 9.10 9.15 9.12 9.00 8.90 8.82 6.17 5.77 5.81 5.81 5.76 5.79 5.89 5.94 5.97 6.31 5.92 5.97 5.96 5.91 5.94 6.04 6.08 6.11 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.14 0.13 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 **15.20 15.31** **15.37 15.38** **15.37 15.34** **15.31 15.23** **15.17**

0.15 0.16 0.18 0.19 0.20 0.23 0.24 0.16 0.09 -0.96-0.94-0.93 -0.91 -0.89 -0.86-0.83 -0.89 -0.94 0.82 0.88 0.91 0.93 0.96 0.98 0.99 1.01 1.02 0.54 0.54 0.53 0.53 0.53 0.52 0.52 0.52 0.51 0.67 0.66 0.65 0.64 0.63 0.62 0.61 0.60 0.59 2.99 3.03 3.02 3.01 3.00 2.97 2.95 3.01 3.06 1.12 1.11 1.11 1.10 1.09 1.08 1.07 1.05 1.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.80 3.89 3.93 3.95 3.97 3.96 3.93 4.05 4.13 0.96 0.96 0.98 0.99 1.00 1.01 1.03 1.04 1.04 0.87 0.87 0.88 0.89 0.89 0.90 0.90 0.92 0.91 0.82 0.82 0.83 0.83 0.83 0.84 0.84 0.85 0.85 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.06 0.06 0.07 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.07 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.000.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

2.56 2.63 2.66 2.67 2.67 2.65 2.61 2.70 2.79 2.56 2.63 2.66 2.67 2.67 2.65 2.61 2.70 2.79 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30

**19.16 19.36** **19.48 19.53** **19.54 19.52** **19.48 19.44** **19.39**

2.45 2.54 2.60 2.65 2.69 2.73 2.74 2.78 2.82 0.01 0.03 0.05 0.08 0.11 0.13 0.16 0.20 0.22 8.76 8.70 8.61 8.50 8.36 8.22 8.07 7.90 7.74 1.46 1.47 1.47 1.48 1.49 1.49 1.50 1.50 1.51 4.09 4.18 4.23 4.25 4.27 4.30 4.32 4.35 4.38 3.68 3.79 3.84 3.89 3.91 3.94 3.97 4.01 4.04 0.39 0.39 0.38 0.39 0.39 0.39 0.39 0.39 0.39 2.01 2.07 2.13 2.19 2.24 2.28 2.31 2.33 2.34

0.92 0.92 0.91 0.90 0.89 0.88 0.87 0.86 0.86 4.77 4.94 5.08 5.20 5.30 5.37 5.43 5.48 5.54 13.3913.4213.4213.3613.2813.1913.1113.0212.92 0.09 0.09 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 **19.17 19.37** **19.49 19.54** **19.54 19.53** **19.49 19.45** **19.40**

-0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01

18.1 18.1 18.1 18.1 18.1 18.1 18.1 18.1 18.1 83.9 84.4 84.8 84.9 84.8 84.6 84.4 84.0 83.7 27.4 25.2 25.4 25.4 25.3 25.6 26.3 26.4 26.3

213.13192.04190.19190.98193.06198.85207.33214.50220.99
2/ Strategic petroleum reserve stock additions plus unaccounted for crude oil and crude stock withdrawals minus crude product supplied.
4/ The volumetric amount by which total output is greater than input due to the processing of crude oil into products which, in total,14/ Includes energy for combined heat and power plants that have a non-regulatory status, and small on-site generating systems.**2024 2025**  **2026 2027**  **2028 2029**  **2030 2031**  **2032**

**2024 2025**  **2026 2027**  **2028 2029**  **2030 2031**  **2032**

9.07 9.00 8.83 8.67 8.52 8.38 8.30 8.16 8.07 0.35 0.33 0.31 0.29 0.27 0.26 0.24 0.23 0.27 8.73 8.68 8.53 8.38 8.24 8.13 8.06 7.93 7.80 6.04 6.05 6.19 6.33 6.46 6.57 6.64 6.78 6.86 6.17 6.18 6.32 6.46 6.58 6.70 6.77 6.91 6.99 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 **15.11 15.06** **15.02 15.00** **14.97 14.95** **14.94 14.94** **14.94**

0.04-0.01 -0.09 -0.15 -0.20-0.26-0.34-0.42 -0.47 -0.98 -1.01 -1.07 -1.12 -1.16 -1.21 -1.29 -1.37 -1.43 1.03 1.06 1.06 1.07 1.07 1.06 1.06 1.06 1.07 0.51 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.49 0.49 0.49 0.48 0.48 0.58 0.55 0.54 0.52 0.52 0.51 0.50 0.49 0.48 3.09 3.12 3.17 3.21 3.23 3.27 3.33 3.39 3.45 1.01 1.00 0.98 0.97 0.96 0.96 0.96 0.95 0.95 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.18 4.21 4.24 4.27 4.28 4.29 4.32 4.36 4.38 1.04 1.04 1.04 1.04 1.04 1.04 1.04 1.04 1.04 0.92 0.92 0.92 0.92 0.92 0.91 0.91 0.91 0.91 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.86 0.86 0.86 0.86 0.86 0.86 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.000.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

2.84 2.87 2.90 2.92 2.94 2.95 2.98 3.01 3.03 2.84 2.87 2.90 2.92 2.94 2.95 2.98 3.01 3.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.31

**19.33 19.26** **19.18 19.12** **19.06 18.98** **18.93 18.88** **18.84**

2.83 2.84 2.84 2.84 2.86 2.85 2.84 2.84 2.83 0.24 0.26 0.28 0.29 0.31 0.31 0.32 0.32 0.32 7.58 7.41 7.26 7.12 7.01 6.91 6.83 6.76 6.71 1.51 1.52 1.53 1.54 1.54 1.55 1.55 1.56 1.56 4.40 4.44 4.46 4.48 4.49 4.50 4.52 4.53 4.53 4.07 4.11 4.14 4.16 4.17 4.19 4.21 4.22 4.23 0.39 0.39 0.39 0.39 0.39 0.39 0.40 0.40 0.40 2.37 2.40 2.43 2.46 2.47 2.48 2.49 2.49 2.50

0.85 0.84 0.83 0.83 0.82 0.81 0.81 0.80 0.80 5.59 5.64 5.66 5.69 5.72 5.72 5.72 5.73 5.73 12.8212.7112.6212.5312.4512.3812.3212.2812.24 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 **19.34 19.27** **19.19 19.13** **19.07 18.99** **18.94 18.89** **18.85**

-0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01

18.1 18.1 18.1 18.1 18.1 18.1 18.1 18.1 18.1 83.3 83.1 82.9 82.8 82.6 82.4 82.4 82.4 82.4 26.6 26.6 27.1 27.6 28.2 28.6 28.6 29.0 29.2

228.39234.27243.98254.79263.62272.54278.60289.05297.60**2033 2034**  **2035 2036**  **2037 2038**  **2039 2040** 

**2033 2034**  **2035 2036**  **2037 2038**  **2039 2040** **2012-2040**

8.04 7.98 7.87 7.75 7.70 7.56 7.53 7.48 0.5% 0.34 0.39 0.38 0.37 0.36 0.32 0.29 0.26-2.5% 7.70 7.60 7.49 7.39 7.34 7.24 7.24 7.22 0.7% 6.90 7.00 7.15 7.30 7.41 7.62 7.66 7.74-0.3% 7.02 7.12 7.27 7.43 7.53 7.74 7.79 7.87-0.3% 0.13 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 2.6% 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 - - **14.94 14.98** **15.02 15.06** **15.11 15.18** **15.19 15.22**  **0%**

-0.53 -0.62 -0.67 -0.70-0.77 -0.81 -0.82 -0.86 - - -1.48 -1.56 -1.61 -1.65 -1.72 -1.76-1.78 -1.82 - - 1.07 1.08 1.08 1.09 1.10 1.10 1.11 1.10 0.9% 0.48 0.47 0.47 0.46 0.46 0.46 0.45 0.45-1.0% 0.47 0.46 0.45 0.44 0.43 0.42 0.41 0.40-1.5% 3.50 3.57 3.61 3.65 3.70 3.73 3.75 3.76 0.8% 0.95 0.94 0.94 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.95-0.4% 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 - - 4.39 4.40 4.40 4.38 4.41 4.39 4.38 4.36 1% 1.04 1.04 1.04 1.04 1.04 1.04 1.05 1.07 0.7% 0.91 0.91 0.91 0.91 0.91 0.91 0.93 0.95 0.5% 0.86 0.86 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.86 0.86 0.1% 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.07 0.07 0.08 - - 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 - - 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 1.5% 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.7% 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 - - 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 - - 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.03 - - 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.03 - - 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 - -0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 - -

3.04 3.05 3.05 3.03 3.06 3.04 3.01 2.98 0.8% 3.04 3.05 3.05 3.03 3.06 3.04 3.01 2.98 0.8% 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 - - 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 - - 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 1.8%

**18.80 18.77** **18.75 18.73** **18.74 18.76** **18.75 18.72**  **0%**

2.82 2.79 2.78 2.77 2.77 2.76 2.75 2.73 0.6% 0.31 0.31 0.30 0.28 0.26 0.25 0.24 0.2311.9% 6.67 6.63 6.61 6.60 6.60 6.60 6.61 6.61-1.0% 1.56 1.57 1.57 1.57 1.58 1.58 1.59 1.59 0.5% 4.54 4.57 4.59 4.60 4.61 4.62 4.62 4.62 0.8% 4.25 4.27 4.30 4.31 4.32 4.33 4.34 4.34 0.8% 0.40 0.40 0.40 0.40 0.40 0.40 0.40 0.40 0.6% 2.50 2.51 2.51 2.52 2.53 2.55 2.55 2.55 0.9%

0.79 0.78 0.78 0.78 0.77 0.77 0.76 0.76-0.8% 5.72 5.70 5.70 5.69 5.71 5.72 5.71 5.68 0.9% 12.2212.2112.2012.1912.1912.1912.2012.20-0.3% 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08-0.7% **18.80 18.78** **18.76 18.74** **18.75 18.76** **18.76 18.73**  **0%**

-0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 - -

18.1 18.1 18.1 18.1 18.1 18.1 18.1 18.1 0.2% 82.4 82.6 82.9 83.1 83.3 83.7 83.8 84.0-0.2% 29.2 29.3 29.9 30.6 30.8 31.6 31.8 32.2-0.8%

305.14315.75327.33338.68347.81363.35372.93385.39 0.7%