Number 17

The Golden Egg

At Your Service

Tying the Knot

Cedar Waxing or Waning?

9

21

35

48

WHAT’S INSIDE

The

Edition
U.S. Geological Survey

Dr. Suzette Kimball, Acting 

Director

Bill Werkheiser, Acting Deputy 

Director

Dr. Ione Taylor, Associate 

Director for Energy and 

Minerals, and Environmental 

Health

Anne Kinsinger, Associate 

Director for Ecosystems

Dr. Carl Shapiro, Director—

Science and Decisions Center

Dr. Ellie Brown, Deputy 

Director—Science and 

Decisions Center

Cradle of Forestry in 

America Interpretive 

Association

Jennifer Grantham, 

Chairperson

Carlton Murrey, Executive 

Director

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Education

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Project Learning Tree, 

http://plt.org/

Natural Inquirer is reproduced 

on recycled paper with soybased inks.

Please pass this journal along 

or recycle it when you have 

finished using it.

Natural Inquirer

Produced by

Forest Service

U.S. Geological Survey 

Production Staff

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of Forestry in America 

Interpretive Association

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of Georgia

Emily Melear-Daniels, Cradle 

of Forestry in America 

Interpretive Association

Forest Service Scientists 

Highlighted in the 

Journal

Dr. David D’Amore, Pacific 

Northwest Research Station

Dr. Paul Hennon, Pacific 

Northwest Research Station

Dr. Trista Patterson, Pacific 

Northwest Research Station

Dr. Paul Schaberg, Northern 

Research Station

Dr. Dustin Wittwer, Pacific 

Northwest Research Station

Scientific Models in Adaptive Management Edition • Number 17 • 2014

U.S. Geological Survey 

Scientists Highlighted in 

the Journal

Dr. Conor McGowan, 

Patuxent Wildlife Research 

Center

Dr. James Nichols, Patuxent 

Wildlife Research Center

Collaborating Scientists 

Dr. Colin Beier, State University 

of New York

Dr. Terry Chapin, University of 

Alaska, Fairbanks

Dr. Carol McIntyre, National 

Park Service

Colin Shanley, The Nature 

Conservancy, Alaska

Forest Service

Thomas L. Tidwell, Chief

Dr. Jimmy L. Reaves, Deputy 

Chief, Research and 

Development

James E. Hubbard, Deputy 

Chief, State and Private 

Forestry

Daina Apple, Acting Staff 

Director, Science Quality 

Services

Michiko Martin, Staff Director, 

Conservation Education

Dr. Greg Arthaud, Research 

Social Scientist, Resource Use 

Science
1

The Natural Inquirer • Number 17

Contents

Editorial Review Board . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2

About Natural Inquirer . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3

Who Are Scientists? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3

Welcome to the Scientific Models in Adaptive 

Management edition of the Natural Inquirer! . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4

Features

The Golden Egg: Using Adaptive Management To Regulate 

Hiking Near Golden Eagle Nests in Denali National Park . . . . . 9

At Your Service: Developing Models To Help Natural 

Resource Managers Make Better Decisions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21

Tying the Knot: How Do Horseshoe Crab and Red Knot 

Populations Affect Each Other? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35

Cedar Waxing or Waning? The Potential to Save 

Yellow-Cedar Trees Using Adaptive Management . . . . . . . . . . 48 

Scientific Models in Adaptive Management Word Search . . . . . 61

Scientific Models in Adaptive Management Photo Challenge . . 62

National Education Standards . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64

What Is the Forest Service? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65

What Is the U.S. Geological Survey? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65

What Is the Cradle of Forestry in America 

Interpretive Association? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65

Editorial Review Board . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Back Cover

Web Sites . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Back Cover

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Join us in being green! The following Educator Resources 

are now available exclusively on the Natural Inquirer Web 

site at http://www.naturalinquirer.org.

These resources can be found with the “Scientific Models 

in Adaptive Management” journal and on the “Educational 

Resources” pages:

• Note to Educators

• Lesson Plan

• Reflection Section Answer Guide

• National Education Standards (specific to each article), 

including:

- National Science Education Standards

- National Curriculum Standards for Social Studies

- Common Core State Standards

- Next Generation Science Standards
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Scientific Models in Adaptive Management Edition, http://www.naturalinquirer.org

Editorial Review Boards’ Comments

Editorial Review Boards

I learned how to use adaptive management.

Maybe they could include more fun facts to keep more 

interest.

I learned how quickly our environment can change.

I learned not to use too much of the ecosystem services 

provided.

I learned about the importance of adaptive 

management and how managers can help preserve 

nature. I also learned that anyone can get involved.

Natural Inquirer editorial review boards hard at work.

I learned that many cedars are dying and we need to help 

them. 

Condense the article.

It looks pretty good. You could put the cover photo courtesy 

on the inside of the cover.

Exchange the word “illustration” for the figure number.

The compass rose needs to be a little sharper.

I think the article is perfectly fine in my opinion.
3

The Natural Inquirer • Number 17

About Natural Inquirer

Who Are Scientists?

Scientists report their research in 

journals, which are special booklets that 

enable scientists to share information 

with one another. This journal, Natural Inquirer, 

was created so that scientists can share their 

research with you and with other middle school 

students. This journal presents the research of 

scientists with the U.S. Geological Survey and 

the Forest Service. The U.S. Geological Survey 

is an agency of the U.S. Department of the 

Interior. The Forest Service is an agency of the 

U.S. Department of Agriculture. If you want to 

know more about the U.S. Geological Survey 

or the Forest Service, you can read about them 

on the inside back cover of this journal, or you 

can visit the Natural Inquirer Web site at http://

www.naturalinquirer.org. Information is also 

available at http://www.fs.fed.us and http://

www.usgs.gov. 

All of the research in Natural Inquirer is 

concerned with nature, such as trees, forests, 

animals, insects, outdoor activities, and water. 

First, you will “meet the scientists” who 

conducted the research. Then, you will read 

something special about science and about the 

natural environment. You will also read about 

a specific research project, which is written 

in the format that scientists use when they 

publish their research in journals. Then, YOU 

will become the scientist when you conduct the 

FACTivity associated with each article. Don’t 

forget to look at the glossary and the special 

sections highlighted in each article. Be sure to 

try the Word Search and Photo Challenge on 

pages 61 and 62!

At the end of each section of the article, you 

will find a few questions to help you think about 

what you have read. Your teacher may use 

these questions in a class discussion.

b Be curious—Are you interested in learning?

b Be enthusiastic—Are you excited about a 

particular topic?

b Be careful—Are you accurate in everything you do?

b Be open-minded—Are you willing to listen to new 

ideas?

b Question everything—Do you think about what 

you read and observe?

Scientists are people who 

collect and evaluate information 

about a wide range of topics. 

Some scientists study the 

natural environment. To be a 

successful scientist, you must:
4

Scientific Models in Adaptive Management Edition, http://www.naturalinquirer.org

I n this journal, you will learn about two 

important processes used to improve the 

condition of our natural environment. 

One of these processes, scientific modeling, 

involves a variety of techniques that help 

scientists understand or predict things that 

they cannot actually observe. You will learn 

about scientific modeling as you read the 

articles in this journal. Scientific modeling 

is used in medical, marine, space, and 

environmental science, among other fields. 

Scientific modeling helps scientists understand 

how things work now and how they might 

work in the future. Adaptive management, 

the second process, is improved by scientific 

modeling. In this journal, you will learn how 

scientific modeling helps environmental 

managers adapt to a changing environment.

Adaptive Management

Adaptive management is a term used in 

natural resource management. Adaptive 

management is a process managers use to 

identify problems and take action. Adaptive 

management also involves using information 

and evaluating it. Using these processes, 

adaptive managers make decisions about 

future action. Adaptive management is a 

continual process of learning and adapting. 

Such management is a way to make the best 

decisions possible and take the best actions 

possible about natural resources. Adaptive 

management is about planning for and acting 

in an uncertain future. 

Welcome

Glossary words appear in bold and are 

defined on page 8.

to the Scientific Models in Adaptive Management edition 

of Natural Inquirer!

Because managers must deal with an 

uncertain future, scientists often use models 

to help them predict what might happen in 

the future. Scientists also help managers 

collect information and evaluate the effect of 

managers’ actions. 

A model is a simple representation of a 

system. Models can be mathematical and 

include numbers and symbols, or they can be 

drawings, maps, or illustrations. Another type 

of model is a physical model, such as a model 

airplane. Managers often use models to practice 

adaptive management (figures 1a-1d).

Compare and contrast the models on page 

5. What is similar about them? First, you may 

have noticed that all the models are described 

using a circle. Adaptive management does not 

have an end point. Adaptive management is 

like your own learning process. Both adaptive 

management and your learning process use past 

learning to try out new things. Other similarities 

you may have noticed in these adaptive 

management models include the following: 

(a) A design phase in which plans are made. 

(b) An implementation phase in which action 

is taken. 

(c) An evaluation phase in which what 

happened following the action is monitored

and assessed.

Based on these four models, write at least 

two questions you have about adaptive 

management. After you have read 

this journal, have your questions been 

answered? If not, do additional research to 

answer your questions.
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The Natural Inquirer • Number 17

Figures 1a-d. Four models used to describe and help practice adaptive management. Illustrations 

adapted from the originals by Stephanie Pfeiffer.

Figure 1a. U.S. Geological Survey model of 

adaptive management.

Figure 1b. Forest Service model of adaptive 

management.

Figure 1c. Commonwealth Marine and 

Atmospheric Research model of adaptive 

management.

Figure 1d. National Park Service model of 

adaptive management.
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Scientific Models in Adaptive Management Edition, http://www.naturalinquirer.org

All the models in figure 1 either state or 

imply that learning through experience helps 

to make better decisions about management 

actions. 

Examine the National Park Service model 

(figure 1d). On the right-hand side, you see 

that adaptive management includes identifying 

uncertainties. Uncertainty involves being 

unsure about some things. We are uncertain, 

for example, about the magnitude of climate 

change. We may be uncertain whether an 

earthquake or flood will occur, or whether an 

insect pest will damage vegetation.

Other uncertainties involve human actions. 

We often do not know what humans will 

do in a situation. In adaptive management 

and the models that support it, identifying 

uncertainties is important.

Adaptive management is a tool that natural 

resource managers can use to improve the 

effectiveness of their management through 

learning. Using adaptive management, 

managers try something new. They evaluate 

and learn from the results, then make any 

necessary changes. After they make the 

changes, they evaluate again and learn from 

the results. Managers continue to make any 

necessary changes. This process continues 

without an endpoint. 

During adaptive management, managers 

monitor and evaluate the results of actions. 

Monitoring and evaluating first involve 

identifying what one wants to know about 

a management action. Then, monitoring 

includes developing a research plan, followed 

by collecting, analyzing, and evaluating 

information. Often, scientists help managers 

with these parts of adaptive management. 

In this journal, you will read about research 

that scientists have done that can help 

managers practice adaptive management. In 

each model in figure 1, identify where in the 

model scientists are most likely to work with 

managers.

Models

Ironically, one tool used for monitoring 

and evaluating is not shown in figure 1. 

This tool is the use of models to describe 

natural ecosystems. Sometimes these models 

also include human actions. In adaptive 

management, managers and scientists often 

use models like those in figure 1 to describe 

systems. They also use maps and other 

illustrations to describe systems.

When working with managers doing adaptive 

management, scientists often use mathematical 

models to describe ecosystems. Mathematical 

models are equations. Mathematical models 

help scientists predict what might happen 

in the future (figure 2). The models enable 

predictions to be made by making assumptions

about the identified uncertainties (See “When 

Zombies Attack!”). Using mathematical models, 

scientists help managers understand what might 

happen if they take various actions. After taking 

an action, managers monitor and evaluate the 

effects of that action. They compare the effects 

with the model’s prediction. Where in figures 

1a-1d would you place the use of models in 

adaptive management? 

Using models in adaptive management helps 

managers make informed decisions when acting 

for an uncertain future. Adaptive management 

provides a way for natural resource managers 

to keep track of and learn from their actions. 

Learning is one of the most important elements 

in adaptive management. In this edition of 

Natural Inquirer, for example, you will read 

about Denali National Park in Alaska. Park 

managers at Denali have an important challenge 

that they face at the beginning of every hiking 

season. Managers want to open as many trails 

as possible to hikers. Managers also want to 

keep noise and disturbance away from nesting 
7

The Natural Inquirer • Number 17

Figure 2. Mathematical models of the average height of 18-year-olds based on their height at 

age 15. In this model, height at age 18 is uncertain. These models make assumptions about the 

number of inches boys and girls will grow from age 15 to 18. These assumptions are based on 

an average of the measured heights of many 15- to 18-year-olds.

HB18 = HB15 + 6

Where HB18 = height of boys in inches at age 18, HB15 = height of boys in inches at age 15

HG18 = HG15 + 1.5

Where HG18 = height of girls in inches at age 18, HG15 = height of girls in inches at age 15

If scientists assumed that boys would grow 7 inches between age 15 and 18, how would the 

first model change?

eagles. Managers, along with scientists, monitor 

the number and location of active eagle nests 

every year. They use this information in models. 

Based on monitoring and modeling results, 

managers continue to learn about the correct 

number of trails and which trails to open each 

year.

Many government agencies use adaptive 

management. Two of those agencies are 

the Forest Service and the U.S. Geological 

Survey (USGS). The Forest Service and 

the USGS developed this journal to describe 

their use of scientific models in adaptive 

management. You can read about these 

When Zombies Attack!

Mathematical models and other types of models were used in the articles you will 

read in this journal. The following paragraph 

describes the development of a mathematical 

model. Because zombies are not real, the 

entire model was based on assumptions.

The scientists who developed the model 

contributed the following paragraph.

Zombies are trendy in popular culture 

and entertainment. In this paragraph, we 

describe how we modeled a zombie attack.

We used biological assumptions based on 

popular zombie movies. We first introduce 

a model for a zombie infection. We illustrate 

the outcome using numerical solutions. We 

then change the model to introduce a period 

during which humans are infected, but not 

infectious, before becoming undead. We 

then update the model to include the 

effects of a possible cure. We examine the 

effect of regular reductions in the number 

of zombies. Finally, we develop conditions 

under which all zombies are removed.

We show that only quick, aggressive 

attacks against zombies can stave off the 

doomsday scenario: the collapsing of 

society as zombies overtake us all.

Munz, P.; Hudea, I.; Imad, J.; Smith, R.J. 2009.

When zombies attack! Mathematical modeling of 

an outbreak of zombie infection. In Tchuenche, 

J.M.; Chiyaka, C., eds. Infectious disease modeling 

research progress. Ottawa, Ontario, Canada: 

University of Ottawa: 133–150. This abstract was 

edited slightly for a middle school audience and 

approved by P. Munz.
8

Scientific Models in Adaptive Management Edition, http://www.naturalinquirer.org

agencies on the inside back cover of this 

journal. The scientists from these agencies 

work with natural resource managers and help 

them with part of the adaptive management 

process. 

USGS scientists work with many groups. 

These groups include natural resource 

managers, landowners, State and local 

governments, Native American tribes, 

and citizens. Citizens, for example, may 

be interested in outdoor recreation such as 

boating, hiking, and wildlife and bird watching. 

USGS uses adaptive management to involve 

different groups with different viewpoints and 

interests in the process. Where in figure 1a do 

you see this part of the adaptive management 

process?

The Forest Service uses adaptive 

management to improve the condition of the 

nation’s forests and grasslands. Managing 

wildland fire by using adaptive management is 

also an important job of the Forest Service.

In this journal, you will learn how 

people use scientific modeling in adaptive 

management to understand and manage 

the decline in numbers of shorebirds and 

horseshoe crabs. You will learn how resource 

managers could use scientific modeling to save 

cedar trees in Alaska. You will also learn how 

using models in adaptive management can help 

managers protect ecosystems into the future. 

If zombie attacks were possible, you would 

understand the importance of preparing for 

an attack. Adaptive management is helping 

managers prepare for an uncertain natural 

resource future. In a changing world, this 

preparation is important for everyone.

Glossary

assumption (ə səm(p) shən): A temporary belief 

that can be tested.

ecosystem (ē kō sis təm): A system made up 

of an ecological community of living things.

interacting with their environment, especially 

under natural conditions.

implementation (im plə men tā shən): The act 

of carrying out. Accomplishing.

imply (im plī): To express indirectly.

ironically (ī rän ik lī): Related to irony; an 

inconsistency between what is expected and 

what has happened.

magnitude (mag nə tüd): The size or quantity 

of.

marine (mə rēn): Of or relating to the sea.

monitor (mä nə tər): To watch or keep track of.

natural resource management 

(na chə rəl rē sȯrs ma nij mənt): The conduct of 

activities within natural areas to achieve goals.

Accented syllables are in bold. Marks and 

definitions are from http://www.merriam-webster.

com.
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The Natural Inquirer • Number 17

Using Adaptive 

Management To 

Regulate Hiking Near 

Golden Eagle Nests in 

Denali National Park

The Golden Egg

Photo courtesy of Kent Miller, National Park Service.
10

Scientific Models in Adaptive Management Edition, http://www.naturalinquirer.org

Meet the Scientists

t

t

Dr. Julien Martin, Research Scientist: The most satisfying 

moments in my job involve finding solutions to problems 

related to conservation. In the case of the golden eagle study, 

for example, our goal was to help park managers regulate

recreation activities near golden eagle territories. Such 

regulation would help ensure a healthy population of eagles in 

Denali National Park. It is a nice example of the use of scientific 

knowledge to help make smart decisions for conservation.

Dr. Carol McIntyre, 

Avian Bioecologist: Studying 

birds that nest at northern 

latitudes is exciting and 

one of the most interesting parts of my career. I also enjoy 

studying bird migration, particularly using technology such 

as telemetry that enables us to track the movements and 

migratory behavior of birds. Another exciting part of science is

collaborating with other scientists on projects. Working with 

a diverse group of scientists always makes the project more 

interesting.

Dr. Jim Nichols, Population Ecologist: One of my more interesting 

experiences occurred while working on a project on a big lake in 

central Florida that required collecting alligator eggs. I worked with a 

group of scientists with several airboats (two scientists per airboat) and 

a helicopter. The operation worked like this: The helicopter would fly 

over the marshland and swampland surrounding the lake. Whenever 

the people in the helicopter spotted an alligator nest, they would hover 

over the nest. One of the airboats would speed over to the nearest 

shoreline (riding on an airboat is a lot of fun!). After arriving on the 

shore, the people from the boat would look around for an alligator 

“run” (a small ditch leading from the lake to the alligator nest, used by 

the female alligator to go to and from the lake). The people from the 

boat would then walk up the run to the nest. (This method was a lot 

easier than trying to walk through all the dense marsh vegetation.)

While working on a two-person airboat team, I began walking 

behind my partner up an alligator run to the nest. Suddenly, my partner 

began moving through the water without moving his legs—he looked exactly like he was surfing! 

He yelled something and jumped off to the side of the ditch. It turns out that he had accidentally 

stepped right on the female alligator in the run, and she moved very quickly, taking him with her 

for a short ride! It was an experience that I will never forget because it was exciting and no one 

was hurt. We completed our mission, which was to collect a nest full of eggs for the purpose of 

studying alligator hatching and growth.

t
Thinking About 

Science

Sometimes in science no 

clear-cut answers exist for a 

problem. When no clear-cut 

answers are available, scientists 

need to find a way to solve 

their problem the best way they 

can. Often scientists will design 

models of what they think is happening and 

then test these models. These models come as 

close to reality as possible. Models, however, 

give scientists a point of reference. This point 

of reference enables scientists to come up with 

possible answers to questions they are trying to 

answer. In this study, scientists made models of 

what might happen to golden eagles and their 

nests in areas with hiking activity. Specifically, 

the scientists used models to examine whether 

hiking activity would affect nesting success of 

golden eagles.

What Kinds of 

Scientists Did 

This Research?

avian bioecologist: This scientist studies 

the relationship of birds with each other and 

with the nonliving environment.

population ecologist: This scientist 

studies the populations of different species 

and how each population interacts with its 

environment.

research scientist: This scientist has 

expert knowledge of one or more sciences, 

especially a natural or physical science.

Thinking About the 

Environment

National parks attract many 

visitors throughout the year. 

These visitors come to see 

the beauty of the parks and 

take part in educational and 

recreational activities at the 

parks (figure 1). The number 

of people who visit a park can have an effect 

on the park in many ways. The effects of 

recreational activities such as hiking and biking, 

for example, are a concern for some parks. 

Some effects of these types of activities may 

be easy to see. Land erosion from too much 

foot or bike traffic in an area is one example. 

Other consequences of people hiking and 

biking in a park may not be as easy to see. The 

stress caused to animals by hiking and biking 

and changes in animal behavior because of the 

presence of humans are two examples of this 

kind of effect.

National parks have multiple purposes that 

are mandated by the Organic Act of 1916. 

Managers of national parks, therefore, need to 

protect the environment, plants, and animals. 

Managers must also ensure that people, 

including future generations, can enjoy their 

visits to the park.

Figure 1. National parks provide many 

opportunities to enjoy the outdoors. Photo 

courtesy of Tim Rains, National Park Service.

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The Natural Inquirer • Number 17

Glossary words are bold and are defined 

on page 18.
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Scientific Models in Adaptive Management Edition, http://www.naturalinquirer.org

What Is the 

Organic Act?

President Woodrow Wilson signed the Organic Act of 1916, which created the 

National Park Service. The National Park 

Service’s mission was clearly stated. The 

National Park Service’s mission is to “....

conserve the scenery and the natural and 

historic objects and the wildlife therein and 

to provide for the enjoyment of the same 

in such manner and by such means as will 

leave them unimpaired for the enjoyment 

of future generations.” To read the entire 

Organic Act, visit http://www.cr.nps.gov/

history/online_books/anps/anps_1i.htm.

Figure 2a. Golden eagles are large birds of 

prey. Photo courtesy of Terry Sohl.

Figure 2b. A golden eagle nest. Illustration by 

Stephanie Pfeiffer.

Introduction

Denali National Park in Alaska has one 

of the largest reported golden eagle nesting 

populations (figures 2a and 2b). The golden 

eagle is one of North America’s largest birds 

of prey. These birds are very fast. They can 

dive from the air to catch their prey at speeds 

up to 150 miles per hour (241.4 kilometers per 

hour)! Golden eagles typically eat small animals 

such as rabbits, hares, and squirrels, but they 

have been known to attack larger prey. Pairs of 

golden eagles maintain large territories. Some of 

these territories can be up to 60 square miles in 

size. (Complete the number crunch to see how 

big this territory is.) Golden eagles are legally 

protected to help the population survive. Three 

Federal laws protect the golden eagle (figure 3).

Because the golden eagle population is 

fragile, park managers want to protect nesting 

eagles from disturbance caused by hikers in the 

park. Managers also want hikers to have a good 

experience in the park. Park managers were not 

sure how much hiking activities would affect 

nesting golden eagles in Denali National Park 

(figure 4a and 4b). They asked scientists to 

help them study this question.

The scientists and managers formed a 

team to develop a way to make decisions 

about hiking in Denali National Park. The 

managers identified management objectives for 

protecting eagles while providing opportunities 

for hikers. The scientists knew a great deal 

about golden eagles and developed models to 

help make the best decisions for eagles and 

hikers. The models the scientists developed 

looked at how eagles might respond to hiking. 

The question the scientists and managers 

wanted to answer with this research was: 

How much does hiking need to be restricted 

to maintain golden eagle populations at desired 

levels? 
13

The Natural Inquirer • Number 17

Name of the law How the law protects golden eagles

The Bald and Golden Eagle 

Protection Act of 1962

This act prohibits anyone, without a permit issued by the U.S. Secretary 

of the Interior, from “taking” bald eagles, including their parts, nests, 

or eggs. The act provides criminal penalties for persons who “take, 

possess, sell, purchase, barter, offer to sell, purchase or barter, 

transport, export or import, at any time or any manner, any bald 

eagle ... [or any golden eagle], alive or dead, or any part, nest, or egg 

thereof.”

The Migratory Bird Treaty 

of 1918

This treaty established a Federal prohibition, unless permitted by 

regulations, to “pursue, hunt, take, capture, kill, attempt to take, capture 

or kill, possess, offer for sale, sell, offer to purchase, purchase, deliver 

for shipment, ship, cause to be shipped, deliver for transportation, 

transport, cause to be transported, carry, or cause to be carried by any 

means whatever, receive for shipment, transportation or carriage, or 

export, at any time, or in any manner, any migratory bird, included in 

the terms of this Convention ... for the protection of migratory birds 

... or any part, nest, or egg of any such bird.” (16 United States Code 

703) 

The Lacey Act of 1900 This act protects both plants and wildlife by prohibiting trade of illegally 

transported, sold, or taken plants and wildlife.

Figure 4b. Denali National Park has a variety 

of rugged terrain. Photo courtesy of Tim 

Rains, National Park Service.

Figure 3. Three laws protect the golden eagle.

Figure 4a. 

Denali National Park is 

located in Alaska. Map 

by Lindsay Gnann.

t

t
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Scientific Models in Adaptive Management Edition, http://www.naturalinquirer.org

Methods

To identify the best way to manage 

hiking and still protect nesting golden eagles, 

the scientists used a formal decisionmaking 

framework as part of adaptive management 

(see page 4 for more information about adaptive 

management). First, the scientists had to gather 

information about the potential problem.

Since 1988, at least 93 eagle territory sites 

have been monitored in Denali. The scientists 

focused on 25 territories that they believed 

would be most affected by hiking. Golden eagle 

territories are areas of land in which eagles hunt 

and live. The scientists had to find out two 

main things. One thing they needed to know 

was the number of occupied and unoccupied 

eagle territories. The second thing they needed 

to know was the number of territories where 

golden eagles laid eggs and did not lay eggs 

(figure 5).

After scientists had this information, they 

created three mathematical models to help 

them understand the effect of hiking on golden 

eagle nests. Each model made an assumption

that the scientists could test (figure 6). This 

process is similar to making a hypothesis and 

testing it. (For information about making 

assumptions in models, read “When Zombies 

Attack” on page 7.)

The scientists believed the population 

of golden eagles also depended on another 

important factor. This factor was the availability 

Number Crunches

b	 Howmany acres are in 60squaremiles?

(Hint:1 squaremile = 640acres.) A football

field in theUnited States is approximately

1 acre in size, so about howmany football

fieldswould be in 60squaremiles?

b	 Howmany square kilometers are in 60

squaremiles? (Hint:1 squaremile = 2.59

square kilometers)

Number Crunch

b	 Howmany years agowas theNational Park

Service established?Howmany decades?

What Is Adaptive 

Management? 

Have you ever heard that experience is the best teacher? This idea is the 

foundation of adaptive management.

Adaptive management is a way for land 

managers to deal with an unknown future 

and to learn from trying new things.

When land managers try something new, 

the outcome is evaluated. Based on the 

evaluation, the managers try another 

approach to improve their management. The 

process continues, with managers continuing 

to learn and adapt.

Scientists often help managers by 

designing and implementing the evaluation 

process. As you can see, scientists are 

involved in some parts of the adaptive 

management process. Land managers, 

however, treat the entire adaptive 

management process as an experiment.

What occurs when you do an experiment? 

Hopefully, you learn from your experience!

Reflection Section

b	 In your ownwords and in the formof a

question, state the problemthe scientists

were trying to solve.

b Why do you think scientistswere trying

tomaximize hiking and protection ofthe

golden eagle nests?
15

The Natural Inquirer • Number 17

Figure 5. Golden eagle nests are large and often found in high places. In this photo, a golden eagle is 

preparing to land at its nest. Photo courtesy of Kent Miller, National Park Service.

Model 

number What the model assumed

1 Assumed no effect of hiking on 

whether the eagles lived and 

reproduced in the territory.

2 Assumed a moderate effect of 

hiking on whether the eagles lived 

and reproduced in the territory.

3 Assumed a large negative effect of 

hiking on whether the eagles lived 

and reproduced in the territory.

of snowshoe hares for food. Snowshoe hares 

are a primary prey for golden eagles in Denali 

(figure 7). The scientists believed that more 

eagles would nest when hares were plentiful. 

This information is important for understanding 

eagle nesting behavior.

Scientists do not know the exact population 

size of snowshoe hares from year to year. This 

lack of information is a source of uncertainty 

when trying to develop models of eagle nesting. 

The scientists have a hare index to help them 

Figure 7. The snowshoe hare is adapted to cold 

climates. What is one adaptation you see? Photo 

courtesy of Jake Frank, National Park Service.

Figure 6. The models helped scientists study 

what may happen with different limits on hiking.

estimate the population size. This index does 

not give scientists exact numbers, but it does tell 

scientists when hares are in high and low phases 

of their population cycle.

The scientists used computer software to 

predict how different amounts of hiking would 

affect eagle nesting each year. Specifically, 

the scientists used the three models and 

the information they gathered about eagle 

reproduction and prey abundance to develop 

the software.
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Scientific Models in Adaptive Management Edition, http://www.naturalinquirer.org

Adaptive Management in Your Life

Do you have bird boxes in your schoolyard? If you do not, pretend that you do.

Your class has decided to use adaptive 

management to improve the situation for 

nesting birds. First, you must identify the 

problem and your objective. Let’s say that no 

bird has ever nested in any of the bird boxes.

A lack of nesting birds is the problem. Your 

objective is to have three successful bird 

boxes. A successful bird box is one in which 

eggs are laid and hatched, and baby birds are 

able to leave the nest and fly away (figure 8).

Your class does research in the media 

center. You decide that the bird boxes are 

placed too close to the playground. You move 

the bird boxes away from the playground.

After 2 weeks, you observe and record bird 

activity. One pair of adult birds is observed 

carrying nesting material to one of the nests.

After evaluating your results, your class does 

more research. You discover that one of the 

unsuccessful bird box holes is too small. You 

cut a bigger hole, wait 2 more weeks, and 

observe and record any nesting activity. A pair 

of birds is observed at the second bird box.

After evaluating the results of your bird-box 

management, your class does more research.

You discover that nesting birds like to have an 

open space in the front of the bird box. The 

last unsuccessful bird box faces a large bush.

What steps will you take next?

Figure 8. Bird boxes provide habitat for 

nesting birds. Photo by Babs McDonald.

Reflection Section

b	 Why do you think the scientists chose to

study only 25 territories insteadof all 93

territories?

b Why do you think scientists used three

differentmodels in their study?

Findings

Under model 2, closing some of the hiking 

areas had a small effect on golden eagle nesting 

(figure 9). Under model 3, however, closing 

fewer areas to hiking had a large negative effect 

on golden eagle nesting. The scientists found 

that more areas need to be closed to hiking as 

the number of unoccupied nests increased. The 

scientists also found that more areas need to be 

closed to hiking when fewer snowshoe hares 

were found in the area.
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The Natural Inquirer • Number 17

You Are the 

Adaptive Manager!

I

n this article, you are learning about 

research and evaluation as a part of 

the adaptive management process. One 

important feature of adaptive management 

is its focus on an uncertain future. Scientists 

help managers by doing research. Scientists 

provide information that can be used to 

predict what might happen in the future.

Pretend you are the land manager of the 

area being studied in this research. How 

would you use the findings of this study? 

What management action would you take? 

After taking the action, what would you ask 

the scientists to monitor?

Figure 9. Hikers in Denali National Park. Photo 

courtesy of the National Park Service.

Reflection Section

b	 Why do you think thatwhen snowshoe hare

abundance is low,more hiking areas need

to be closed?

b Based on the findings you read, do you

think hiking has any effect on golden eagle

nesting?Why orwhy not?

Discussion

The scientists said that it was important to 

consider the things in the models about which 

they were uncertain. This step is necessary 

before making any decisions about which 

model is best to use. For example, accurately 

accounting for the number of snowshoe hares 

may change model outcomes. The scientists 

believe that even with the limitations of these 

models, using the models to make management 

decisions is better than waiting to make 

decisions until more data are available.

Reflection Section

b	 Do you think thatmakingmanagement

decisions based on themodels in the paper

is betterthanwaiting untilmore data are

available?Why orwhy not?

b Do you think scientists andmanagers need

to take thismuch effortto protect golden

eagles?Why orwhy not? (Hint: Review

figure 3).

Adapted from Martin, J.; Fackler, P.L.; Nichols, J.D.; 

Runge, M.C.; McIntyre, C.L.; Lubow, B.L.; McCluskie, 

M.C.; Schmutz, J.A. 2011. An adaptive-management 

framework for optimal control of hiking near golden 

eagle nests in Denali National Park. Conservation 

Biology. 25(2): 316–323.
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Scientific Models in Adaptive Management Edition, http://www.naturalinquirer.org

Glossary

assumption (ə səm(p) shən): A fact or statement 

taken for granted.

collaboration (kə lab ə rə shən): The act of 

working with others.

conservation (kän(t) sər vā shən): A careful 

preservation and protection of something.

index (in deks): A number (as a ratio) derived 

from a series of observations and used as an 

indicator or measure.

mandate (man dāt): To officially require 

something.

migration (mī grā shən): Passing, usually 

periodically, from one region or climate to 

another for feeding or breeding.

monitor (mä nə tər): To watch, keep track of, or 

check usually for a special purpose.

objective (əb jek tiv): An aim or goal.

prohibition (prō ə bi shən): An order forbidding 

something.

regulate (re gyə lāt): (1) To control according 

to a system. (2) To bring under control of law or 

some authority.

telemetry (tə le mə trē): The process of 

transmitting data by telemeter (tə le mə tər). A 

telemeter is a device that allows measurements 

to be made at a distance.

Accented syllables are in bold. Marks and 

definitions are from http://www.merriam-webster.

com.

Note to Educators: If you are a Project Learning Tree trained educator, 

you may use “A Forest of Many Uses.”

The article title “Golden Egg” is an allusion to Aesop’s Fables classic “The Goose 

with the Golden Egg.” “The Goose with the Golden Egg” is a tale about a man who 

becomes too greedy and ends up with nothing. To see the text, visit http://www.

bartleby.com/17/1/57.html and http://www.umass.edu/aesop/content.php?n=14&i=1.

Web Resources

Denali National Park

http://www.nps.gov/dena/index.htm

A Brief History of the National Park Service

http://www.cr.nps.gov/history/online_books/kieley/

index.htm

National Geographic’s Golden Eagle page

http://animals.nationalgeographic.com/animals/birds/

golden-eagle/

Cornell’s Lab of Ornithology—Golden Eagle page

http://www.allaboutbirds.org/guide/Golden_Eagle/id

Photo Gallery of Denali National Park

http://www.flickr.com/photos/denalinps/

Photo Gallery of Denali National Park

http://www.nps.gov/dena/photosmultimedia/

photogallery.htm
19

The Natural Inquirer • Number 17

FACTivity

Time Needed

One class period

Materials 

• Graph paper for each group of 

students (see graph paper provided 

on p. 20)

• Highlighters/colored pencils

• Pencils

In this FACTivity, you will become a park 

manager and examine where to place trails 

in a fictional park according to the location 

of eagles’ nests.

Methods

1. Your teacher will divide the class into 

small groups of three to four students.

Your teacher will also provide each 

group with two pieces of graph paper.

Use one piece of graph paper for your 

draft and one piece of graph paper 

for presenting your final product.

2. The graph represents the area in the 

park. First, plot and label these points 

on your graph:

• Waterfall (7, 5)

• Park Welcome Center (1, 1)

• Mountain Peak (2, 8)

3. Next, plot two eagle territories. Place 

the territories wherever you choose; 

however, take into account the 

following things:

• Each block represents 10 

square miles.

• Golden eagles maintain an area 

up to 60 square miles in size.

Therefore, you should give each 

eagle 60 square miles. You may 

give the eagle the land any way 

you choose as long as you give 

the eagle 60 square miles total 

for each nesting site.

• You will use highlighters or colored 

pencils to color in the 60 square 

miles allotted to each eagle.

4. Next, place the following items on your 

grid.

• Potential scenic area 1: (9, 10)

• Potential scenic area 2: (6, 3)

• Potential scenic area 3: (1, 8)

Decide whether to use these potential 

areas as scenic areas for hikers based on 

the needs of the visitors and the eagles.

5. Decide how you will place two trails 

through the park. The trails should not 

interfere with the eagles’ nests. Draw 

the trails on the map and then write 

a paragraph for each trail describing 

highlights of the trail and how the trail 

protects the eagles’ nesting sites. Use 

complete sentences, correct spelling, 

and proper punctuation.

6. After your student group and all the 

others present their trail maps to the 

class, hold a class discussion about 

challenges that were encountered 

creating the trails and how this activity 

is similar and different from what would 

happen in an actual park. The following 

list has some questions to help start the 

discussion. (Note: These questions could 

also be used as part of an assessment.)

• How difficult did you find it to fit two 

eagle territories into the park?

• In the real world, you would not 

be able to assign the territories 

because the eagles only choose 

a site they like. How would this 

difference make things more 

challenging for someone who is 

managing the park?

• Were you able to make use of all 

possible scenic areas? Why or why 

not?
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10 square 

miles

Each square in the grid is 

equal to 10 square miles.
21

The Natural Inquirer • Number 17

At Your Service

Developing Models To Help 

Natural Resource Managers 

Make Better Decisions

Photo by Babs McDonald.
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Scientific Models in Adaptive Management Edition, http://www.naturalinquirer.org

Meet the Scientists

Dr. Colin Beier, Ecologist: My favorite science experience 

was the first time I visited Chichagof (chə chug ȯf) Island in 

southeast Alaska. We left Juneau and flew across the islands 

and ocean channels in a four-seat floatplane, circled, and 

landed in a beautiful green-water cove. We spent the next 2 

weeks camping and doing fieldwork. We were studying why 

Alaska’s yellow-cedar trees were dying across southeast 

Alaska and collecting samples from the cedar trees to 

measure their rings.

While doing fieldwork, we encountered several big coastal 

brown bears. We had one very close call with a mother 

and her cubs. It was scary at the time, but also an amazing 

experience. I was deep in the ancient rainforest surrounded 

by two of my favorite things—huge trees and huge bears.

Dr. Trista Patterson, Ecological Economist: My favorite 

science experience is kind of “the darkness before the dawn.”

So many times I’ve been hashing over a difficult problem for 

weeks, months, years... and then one day some missing piece 

falls into place. Usually when this experience occurs, I am 

not in my office or in front of a computer. I am hiking with a 

colleague or having a conversation about something totally 

different and unexpected with someone I’ve just met!

For more information about Dr. Patterson, download her 

scientist card at http://www.naturalinquirer.org/scientists-v-92.

html (Set 8). Photo courtesy of Doug Demarest.

Dr. Terry Chapin, Ecosystem Ecologist: My favorite 

science experience has been talking with Alaskan Native 

hunters. Alaskan Native people depend on hunting and 

fishing for food and for their cultural connections to the 

land and sea. These men and women know how climate 

change is affecting Alaskan ecology more directly than 

does any scientist. I’ve learned from them that the ice is 

thinner and more dangerous for winter travel. I’ve learned 

that new birds and fish are appearing, and the ones on 

which they have depended in the past are changing in 

behavior and health. These changes affect all aspects of 

their lives. These Alaskan Natives, however, have good 

ideas about how they and the ecosystems on which they 

depend can adapt to change.

t

t

t
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The Natural Inquirer • Number 17

Thinking About 

Science

How do the words “adaptive 

management” relate to science? 

If you read the introduction 

to this journal, you already 

know something about adaptive 

management. Adaptive management is treating 

decisions as experiments and learning from 

successes and failures. Managing adaptively 

means being willing to change actions and try 

something new. Natural resource managers 

are the professionals who practice adaptive 

management. These managers, however, rely 

on scientists to create models, design ways to 

monitor natural resources, and evaluate results 

so that the managers’ decisions are based on 

scientific information.

To be successful, adaptive management relies 

on a team of professionals. This team involves 

scientists and managers working together. 

In this article, you will learn how a team of 

scientists created models to help managers 

improve their decisionmaking. For more 

information about models, read “Welcome to 

the Scientific Models in Adaptive Management 

edition of the Natural Inquirer!” on page 4.

Thinking About the 

Environment

Although many things about the natural 

environment are uncertain, one thing is certain: 

the environment will continue 

to change. Human activities 

have caused environmental 

change to happen faster in 

recent decades. With change 

comes uncertainty—we 

are not always sure what 

will happen. One way that natural resource 

managers prepare for change is by using 

adaptive management. Managers use adaptive 

management so they can make the best 

decisions possible about protecting and using 

the environment.

Some environmental changes occur 

naturally. Volcanoes, floods, and earthquakes 

are natural events that create sudden change. 

Human activities can also create rapid change, 

as when a forest is cut down to build a 

shopping mall (figure 1). Some human-caused 

changes occur over longer periods of time. 

Climate change, for example, is one change 

that is creating uncertainty about the future. 

In this research, you will learn how scientists 

use information to help managers prepare to 

make good decisions, in spite of change and 

uncertainty.

What Kinds of 

Scientists Did 

This Research?

ecological economist: This scientist 

studies the relationships between human 

economies and natural ecosystems.

ecologist: This scientist studies the 

relationships of living things with each other 

and with the nonliving environment.

ecosystem ecologist: This scientist 

studies the physical and biological 

characteristics of an ecosystem and how 

these characteristics interact with each 

other.

Figure 1. Sometimes, humans cause rapid 

environmental change. Photo by Babs McDonald.
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Scientific Models in Adaptive Management Edition, http://www.naturalinquirer.org

What Are Ecosystem Services?

Ecosystem services are the variety of benefits that ecosystems 

provide to people. These services 

include, for example, clean air, clean 

water, pollination, food, control of 

climate change, wildlife habitat, 

outdoor recreation, soil erosion 

control, building products, and 

scenery (figure 2). As you can see, 

a lot of different kinds of ecosystem 

services can be identified. For more 

information, download or order the 

Natural Inquirer “Ecosystem Services” 

edition at http://www.naturalinquirer.

org.

Reflection Section

b	 Whatwas the problemthe scientistswere

trying to solve?

b Identify one area of yourlife inwhich you

have to set priorities.

b Whatis one similarity between your need to

set priorities and themanagers’ need to set

priorities?

Introduction

Natural resource managers often face a 

dilemma. When a natural area provides a lot of 

ecosystem services, many people want to use 

the services in that area. This use can disturb 

ecosystems. Humans can disturb ecosystems 

when one service is used at the expense of 

another service. An example of this tradeoff 

is using an area to produce food. When land 

is used to produce food, wildlife habitat is lost. 

Too much disturbance can, in time, reduce 

the amount of all ecosystem services provided. 

This reduction occurs because the natural area 

becomes degraded. After an ecosystem is 

degraded, people cannot benefit from its many 

services. A degraded ecosystem can take many 

years to recover.

This dilemma of too much use might happen 

to many natural areas at the same time. When 

many areas need attention, natural resource 

managers must have a way to determine 

Figure 2. Name two ecosystem services being 

provided by this ecosystem. Photo by Babs McDonald.

which areas need the most attention. Natural 

resource managers have limited time and money 

but must work in large areas that cover many 

hundreds or thousands of hectares. Managers 

need a way, therefore, to identify priorities for 

natural resource management.

The scientists in this study developed a 

process to help managers identify management 

priorities. The managers needed a process 

that is useful as conditions change over time. 

As conditions change over time, the managers 

wanted to adapt their management priorities to 

fit the changing conditions.

Glossary words are bold and are defined 

on page 30.
25

The Natural Inquirer • Number 17

What Is Adaptive Management?

Have you ever heard that experience is the best teacher? This idea is the 

foundation of adaptive management. Adaptive 

management is a way for land managers to 

deal with an unknown future and to learn from 

trying new things. When land managers try 

something new, the outcome is evaluated.

Based on the evaluation, the managers 

try another approach to improve their 

management. The process continues, and 

managers continue to learn and adapt.

Scientists often help managers by 

designing and implementing the evaluation 

process. As you can see, scientists are 

involved in some parts of the adaptive 

management process. Land managers, 

however, treat the entire adaptive management 

process as an experiment. What occurs when 

you do an experiment? Hopefully, you learn 

from your experience!

Figure 3. Ecosystem services, human use, and ecosystem 

disturbance are related to each other. Pretend this model is 

sitting inside a clock face. In this model, an ecosystem is shown 

at 8 o’clock. At 10 o’clock, the model shows that the ecosystem 

provides ecosystem services. At 2 o’clock, the model shows 

that people use ecosystem services (the social system). At 6 

o’clock, the model shows that too much human use may result in 

disturbance to the ecosystem. The scientists included changes that 

result from natural resource management as a disturbance. They 

considered management a disturbance because management 

modifies the natural ecosystem. Illustration by Stephanie Pfeiffer.

Methods

The scientists first 

developed an illustration 

(figure 3). This illustration 

is a model that shows 

the relationship between 

ecosystem services and human 

use of natural resources.

The scientists and 

managers then created models 

of what might happen as more 

or fewer natural resources are 

used (figure 4).

The scientists studied the 

ecosystems of southeastern 

Alaska (figures 5 and 6). 

They collected existing 

information about the 

ecosystems from different 

sources. The information 

described southeastern 

Alaska’s land characteristics.

The scientists were 

interested in the following 

characteristics: (1) physical 

land characteristics, (2) human 

use, and (3) disturbance 

caused by human activities. 
26

Scientific Models in Adaptive Management Edition, http://www.naturalinquirer.org

Figure 4. 

This illustration 

is a model 

representing 

what can 

happen to 

ecosystems 

when people 

use natural 

resources.

Arrow thickness 

represents the 

magnitude

of ecosystem 

provision, use, 

and disturbance.

Illustration 

by Stephanie 

Pfeiffer.

Figure 5. The scientists studied southeastern Alaska. Map by Lindsay Gnann.

A

D

B

C
27

The Natural Inquirer • Number 17

The scientists gathered this information from 

different sources. The scientists placed each of 

the variables under one of the three parts of 

the model shown in figure 4 (figure 7). These 

three parts of the model were called criteria.

Figure 6. Southeastern Alaska is a temperate

rain forest. Some areas of southeastern Alaska 

receive an average of 160 inches of rain every 

year. Poster courtesy of Paul Kratter, http://www.

paulkratter.com.

Criteria Variables

Provision of 

ecosystem 

services

Number of hectares of forest 

lands capable of providing timber 

or other forest products

Number of hectares of forest 

lands providing deer and bear 

habitat

Number of kilometers of rivers 

and streams providing salmon 

and trout habitat

Number of kilometers of rivers 

and streams providing habitat for 

a variety of fish

Number of hectares of areas 

providing waterfowl habitat

Use Amount of seafood and shellfish 

caught; sport-fishing

Numbers of deer and bear killed 

during hunting season

Number of cabins available for 

people to use

Number of hectares used to 

transfer logs from land to sea

Number of hectares used for 

harbors

Number of hectares used for fish 

hatcheries

Hectares of water used for fish 

farming

Disturbance Number of hectares of harvested 

forest lands

Number of hectares in urban 

areas or for urban use

Number of roads crossing salmon 

streams

Number Crunch

b	 Howmany centimeters ofrain fall in some

areas of Alaska’s temperate rain forest?

Multiply 160inches by 2.54 centimeters to

findout.

Figure 7. The scientists grouped the variables 

under three criteria.
28

Scientific Models in Adaptive Management Edition, http://www.naturalinquirer.org

When the scientists were finished, 

they had one database. The database 

contained variables describing the 

ecosystem services provided, human 

use of the ecosystem, and any humancaused disturbance. For each of the 

criteria, the scientists calculated one 

number. This number represented the 

magnitude of the ecosystem services 

being provided, the amount of human 

use of the natural resource, or the 

amount of disturbance.

Using equations, the scientists 

calculated a score for each criterion 

(criterion is the singular of criteria) 

for every watershed in southeastern 

Alaska. Using the three scores, the 

scientists compared the relationships 

between provision, use, and 

disturbance for each watershed. 

The scientists wanted to identify 

the watersheds that provided a lot 

of ecosystem services, had a lot of 

human use, and had a high level of 

disturbance. Managers should focus 

their management activities on these 

watersheds.

Adaptive Management in Your Life

Do you have an outdoor classroom in your schoolyard? If you do not, pretend 

that you do. Your class has decided to use 

adaptive management to improve the outdoor 

classroom. First, you must identify the problem 

and your objective. Let’s say that the outdoor 

area has no habitat for lizards. A lack of lizard 

habitat is the problem. Your objective is to 

have at least one lizard species visiting the 

outdoor classroom. Your class does research 

in the media center. You identify a way to use 

rocks to create a habitat that is favorable to 

lizards. Your class creates the habitat. After 

2 weeks, you observe and record any lizard 

species in the area. One lizard species is 

identified.

After evaluating your results, your class 

does more research. You discover that lizards 

like shallow pools of water. You create a 

shallow pool, wait 2 more weeks, and observe 

and record the lizard species present. After 

evaluating the results of your management, 

your class does more research. You discover 

that lizards like to have a variety of places to 

hide. What steps will you take next?

What Is a Watershed?

A watershed is an area of land where all the 

water that is under it or drains off of it goes into the 

same place. The United States has 2,267 watersheds 

(figure 8).

Figure 8. All the water in a watershed drains into the 

same place. Do you live in a watershed? How do you 

know? Illustration by Stephanie Pfeiffer.
29

The Natural Inquirer • Number 17

Number Crunch

b	 TheUnited States has 2,267watersheds.In

what place is the “6” in this number? Is itin

the ones,tens, hundreds, orthousands?

Reflection Section

b	 Look atfigures 3 and 4. Pick one ofthese

figures and explain itin your ownwords.

b Look atfigure 7.Do you think these variables

completely described southeastern Alaska’s

ecosystems?Why orwhy not?

Figure 9. The relationship of ecosystem 

provision, human use, and human disturbance in 

southeastern Alaska. Darker areas show a closer 

relationship among the three criteria. These dark 

areas represent priority areas for management.

Findings

The scientists identified a group of 

watersheds in which high provision, high use, 

and high disturbance were closely related. 

The scientists were able to use some of this 

information to create a map of southeastern 

Alaska (figure 9). This map is a geographic 

model of natural resource relationships in 

southeastern Alaska.

You Are the 

Adaptive Manager!

I

n this article, you are learning about 

research and evaluation as a part of 

the adaptive management process. One 

important feature of adaptive management 

is its focus on an uncertain future. Scientists 

help managers by doing research. Scientists 

provide information that can be used to 

predict what might happen in the future.

Pretend you are the land manager of the area 

being studied in this research. How would 

you use the findings of this study? What 

management action would you take? After 

taking the action, what would you do next?

Reflection Section

b	 Which illustration in figure 4 describes the

situation inwhich the scientistsweremost

interested? Based on thismodel,whatis

likely to happen to an ecosystemdescribed

by illustration B?

b Howwillthe identification of high provision,

high use, and high disturbance areas help

managersmake better naturalresource

decisions?
30

Scientific Models in Adaptive Management Edition, http://www.naturalinquirer.org

Discussion

The scientists believe that more accurate 

and complete information about southeastern 

Alaska should be included in the model. 

Managers need the most accurate information 

available to successfully identify priorities. The 

number of people using an area for recreation, 

for example, would be a more accurate measure 

of use than the number of cabins available.

The scientists believe the model they 

developed will be useful to natural resource 

managers. Identifying areas where ecosystem 

provision, use, and disturbance are greatest 

can help managers set management priorities. 

Identifying these areas will help managers 

take action based on these priorities. By using 

models, mathematical equations, and new 

information in those equations, managers can 

make better decisions and take better actions as 

conditions change. 

Reflection Section

b	 If youwere a scientist doing this study,

would you recommend thatmanagers

base their naturalresourcemanagement

decisions on themap in figure 9?Why or

why not? (Hint: Reread the first paragraph

in the “Discussion” section.)Whatis one

advantage and one disadvantage of

basingmanagement decisions on themap

in figure 9?

b Explain in your ownwords howmodels

andmathematical equations can help

naturalresourcemanagersmake better

decisions about changing ecosystems.

Adapted from Beier, C.M.; Patterson, T.M.; Chapin, F.S. III. 2008. Ecosystem services and emergent vulnerability in 

managed ecosystems: A geospatial decision-support tool. Ecosystems. 11:923–938. http://www.fs.fed.us/pnw/pubs/

journals/pnw_2008_patterson(beier)002.pdf.

Glossary

criteria (krī tir ē ə): Standards upon which a 

judgment or decision may be based. Singular is 

criterion.

database (dā tə bās): A usually large collection 

of data organized especially for rapid search and 

retrieval (as by a computer).

degrade (dē grād): To lower to an inferior or 

less effective level.

dilemma (də le mə): A usually undesirable or 

unpleasant choice.

economy (ē kä nə mē): A system of interaction 

and exchange; often relates to the exchanges of 

goods, services, and money.

ecosystem (ē kō sis təm): A system made up 

of an ecological community of living things 

interacting with their environment especially 

under natural conditions.

erosion (i rō zhən): The state of being washed 

away.

hatchery (ha chə rē): A place for hatching eggs.

magnitude (mag nə tüd): Size, quantity, or 

number.

monitor (mä nə tər): To watch, keep track of, or 

check usually for a special purpose.

priority (prī or ə tē): A condition of being given 

attention before others.

variable (ver ē ə bəl): Something that is able or 

apt to vary.

Accented syllables are in bold. Marks and 

definitions are from http://www.merriam-webster.

com.
31

The Natural Inquirer • Number 17

FACTivity

Time Needed

One class period

Materials

• “At Your Service” article

• Blank piece of paper (one for each 

student, plus a blank paper for each 

group)

• Pencils (one for each student)

• Graphic organizers (in the following 

section)

A model is a simple representation 

of a system. The model can be an 

illustration (as figures 3 and 4), it can be a 

mathematical model and include symbols 

such as the equation v = h * w * l (volume 

= height times width times length), or it can 

be a physical model, such as a model car.

A map may also be considered a model.

In this FACTivity, you will create an 

illustration model of your schoolyard’s 

ecosystem. The question you will answer 

in this FACTivity is: How is a schoolyard 

ecosystem model similar to and different 

from the ecosystem model created for 

southeastern Alaska? 

Methods

Your teacher will have you work with 

other students in small groups. First, you 

will critically review figure 3 from this 

article. Based on what you learned in the 

article, draw a model of your schoolyard’s 

ecosystem. The goal is to produce a 

model that describes how the schoolyard 

ecosystem works. The model should 

include natural and human criteria. (You 

may go outside to observe and record 

your observations about the schoolyard 

ecosystem.)

Use your own paper and pencil to 

sketch ideas. The final model for each 

group should be developed as a group 

and drawn on the extra blank paper. Ask 

questions such as: 

• What ecosystem services are 

provided by the schoolyard 

ecosystem?

• Is the schoolyard ecosystem used and 

if so, how and by whom? 

• Does the schoolyard ecosystem 

experience disturbance and if so, 

what kinds? 

You should also ask whether other 

criteria should be added to your 

schoolyard model. Use your imagination 

and creativity to create your model.

Develop a list of criteria that will become a 

part of you model.

Think about every aspect of your 

schoolyard ecosystem. For example, 

think about the ecosystem services your 

schoolyard provides. One way to analyze 

this process is to identify variables for each 

identified criterion. Thoroughly label each 

model. After your group completes its 

model, compare and contrast it with figure 

3. Use the graphic organizers on pages 32 

and 33 to guide your work.

Your teacher will hold a class discussion 

about the model-building exercise.

Compare and contrast each group’s model.

What do the models reveal about the 

similarities and differences between the 

schoolyard ecosystem and the ecosystem 

studied in southeastern Alaska? The 

graphic organizers presented next may be 

used to guide the discussion and listing.

Finally, as a class, brainstorm a list of model 

characteristics.
Schoolyard ecosystem 

criteria

Schoolyard ecosystem variables

Example: Ecosystem: 

natural characteristics

Example: Number of trees

Example: Number of acres/hectares

Example: Ecosystem 

services provided

Example: A place to play outside

Example: Habitat for songbirds

32

Scientific Models in Adaptive Management Edition, http://www.naturalinquirer.org
Similarities between schoolyard ecosystem 

and southeastern Alaska ecosystem

Differences between schoolyard ecosystem 

and southeastern Alaska ecosystem

Model characteristics

33

The Natural Inquirer • Number 17

FACTivity Extension

Using the list of criteria and variables for the schoolyard 

ecosystem, develop ways to measure the variables you have 

identified. After this exercise has been completed, your 

teacher will hold a class discussion about measurement and 

its importance to scientific study.

Time 

Needed 

At least 30 minutes
34

Scientific Models in Adaptive Management Edition, http://www.naturalinquirer.org

Another FACTivity

Web Resources

Ecological Society of America: Ecosystem Services

http://www.esa.org/ecoservices/comm/body.comm.fact.

ecos.html

Forest Service: Ecosystem Services

http://www.fs.fed.us/ecosystemservices/

Natural Inquirer Ecosystem Services edition

http://www.naturalinquirer.org/Ecosystem-ServicesNatural-Inquirer-i-26.html

Ecological Disturbances 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Disturbance_(ecology)

In this FACTivity, you will create 

a management objective for your 

schoolyard. Then you will create an 

adaptive management process. Review 

the sidebar titled, “Adaptive Management 

in Your Life” on page 28. You may also 

review the adaptive management models 

on page 5.

Time Needed 

One class period

Materials

• “At Your Service” article

• A blank piece of paper

• Pencils (one for each student)

Methods

Working in small groups with other 

students, draw a circle on your paper.

Beginning at the top, write a statement 

that describes your management 

objective. Examples of management 

objectives include: (1) develop a 

wildflower garden, (2) reduce stormwater 

runoff from parking lots, (3) improve 

landscaping at the school’s entrance, 

and (4) provide habitat for three songbird 

species. Pretend you are a land manager 

practicing adaptive management. Write 

the cyclical steps you would take to 

address your management objective. Your 

teacher should emphasize that adaptive 

management includes the following four 

steps:

• Plan (in which a management 

objective and actions are identified)

• Act (in which a management action is 

taken)

• Monitor (in which data are collected 

and analyzed to determine the effect 

of the management action)

• Evaluate (in which learning occurs 

and informs the next round of 

management actions)

Remember that adaptive management 

does not have an endpoint. Focus on 

developing a cyclical process where you 

are learning from experience.

Note that you can use the information 

and model created in the first FACTivity to 

help identify management objectives.

Your teacher will hold a class discussion 

about adaptive management. Explore 

whether this process could be used in 

other areas of an individual’s life. You may 

want to develop an adaptive management 

process for a personal objective.

Note to Educators: If you are a 

trained Project Learning Tree (PLT) 

educator, you may use “Forest 

Consequences” as an additional activity.

The title “At your service” is a phrase 

that means “Committed to satisfying 

you.” How do you think this title relates to 

the article you read?
35

The Natural Inquirer • Number 17

How Do Horseshoe Crab 

and Red Knot Populations 

Affect Each Other?

Tying the Knot

How Do Horseshoe Crab 

and Red Knot Populations 

Affect Each Other?

Photo courtesy of U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Gregory Breese.
36

Scientific Models in Adaptive Management Edition, http://www.naturalinquirer.org

Meet the Scientists

Dr. Conor McGowan, Population Ecologist: My favorite 

science experiences always involve being out in the 

field with the animals I am studying. The best one has to 

be when I trapped and banded waved albatross in the 

Galapagos Islands as an undergraduate student. The 

Galapagos Islands are such a beautiful, amazing place, and 

the waved albatross are such powerful, awesome birds.

Dr. Jim Nichols, 

Population Ecologist: 

Science experiences can 

sometimes be scary. One 

time, I was working with 

other scientists who were 

studying Weddell seals in Antarctica. To do our study, we had to 

place plastic identification tags on the seals’ flippers. The tags 

enable scientists to track the activities of individual seals.

I was out on the sea ice tagging seals with another scientist.

We came upon a large female without a tag. She probably 

weighed about 1,000 pounds (453 kilograms). I was given the 

task of “catching” her, which involved throwing a cloth bag with 

rope handles over her head and jumping on her back. Then, 

holding on to the rope handles, I rode on her back until she got 

tired. She was tired in less than 2 minutes. When she stopped 

moving, I remained on her back and held the bag in place. The 

other scientist moved behind her to apply the tags to her rear flippers.

Suddenly, the seal began to roll to one side. I tried to pull my leg up so it would not be 

crushed by her rolling motion. I discovered that my crampons (metal spikes on the bottoms of 

my boots) were stuck in the ice. My leg was so far under the seal that I could not pull it loose.

I yelled to my partner, who quickly moved to the front of the seal. He distracted her in the 

opposite direction of her roll, causing her to roll back to the other side. This movement gave me 

room to remove my leg. So thanks to the quick thinking of my partner, my leg was not crushed. I 

made sure in future captures that my leg did not get stuck again.

t

t

What Kind of Scientist Did This Research?

population ecologist: This scientist studies the populations of different species and how the 

population interacts with its environment.

Glossary words are bold and are defined on page 44.
Thinking About the Environment

Thinking About 

Science

Land managers and other 

natural resource professionals 

are skilled individuals who take 

care of the land and natural 

resources. Every day, land managers and natural 

resource professionals must make decisions 

about how best to maintain the resources that 

are in their care. To help managers make the 

most informed decisions possible, scientists 

sometimes work with these professionals. In 

this case, science is used to help solve identified 

problems and meet objectives. In this study, 

scientists and managers worked together. The 

scientists designed models to help managers 

make good decisions about a population 

of horseshoe crabs and a certain type of 

migratory shorebird called the red knot. 

Figure 1. Stopover points for migrating red knots that spend the 

winter in three locations: Tierra del Fuego, northern Brazil, and 

the Mid-Atlantic United States. Map by Lindsay Gnann.

Some birds 

migrate during 

winter months 

and then return 

to summer 

habitats for 

breeding. In this study, the 

red knot is a bird species 

that migrates south from 

its breeding grounds in 

the Canadian Arctic to 

southern South America. 

The one-way migratory 

journey for these birds can 

be up to 14,000 kilometers. 

The birds must stop 

frequently to rest and refuel 

to complete this journey. 

Certain locations are ideal 

stopover areas for these 

migratory birds because 

of food availability. The 

three areas are Tierra 

del Fuego (Argentina and 

Chile), northern Brazil, and 

the Mid-Atlantic United 

States (figure 1). Red knots 

spend November through 

February in these wintering 

areas and then migrate 

back to Canada in time for 

37

The Natural Inquirer • Number 17
38

Scientific Models in Adaptive Management Edition, http://www.naturalinquirer.org

summer. Delaware Bay in 

the Mid-Atlantic United 

States is a perfect stopover 

location for the birds 

(figure 2).

Delaware Bay is an 

estuary (figure 3). 

Because estuaries are 

transition zones between 

the ocean and freshwater 

areas, the mix of ocean 

water and fresh water 

provides a lot of nutrients in 

the area. For red knots, the 

big draw is horseshoe crab 

eggs. In this study, you will 

learn how the horseshoe 

crab population may affect 

the red knot population.

Figure 2. Delaware Bay is located in the Mid-Atlantic United States. Map by Lindsay Gnann.

Figure 3. Two estuaries on the northwestern coast of Madagascar.

The Republic of Madagascar is located off the southeastern coast of 

Africa, in the Indian Ocean. This photo was taken by an Expedition 

28 crew member on the International Space Station. Photo courtesy 

of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration.

Number Crunch

b	 Howmanymiles is a one-waymigratory trip forthe red knot? (Hint:1 km=0.621miles)
39

The Natural Inquirer • Number 17

Figure 4. Thousands of horseshoe crabs come 

up onto the beaches in Delaware Bay to lay their 

eggs. Photo courtesy of U.S. Fish and Wildlife 

Service, Gregory Breese.

Figure 5. Red knots stop to eat in Delaware Bay.

Photo courtesy of U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, 

Gregory Breese.

Introduction

In this study, the scientists used a 

structured decisionmaking process called 

adaptive management (see page 4 for more 

information about adaptive management). 

Structured decisionmaking is a process where 

managers first define management objectives. 

After managers have defined their objectives, 

scientists use models to predict results of 

different possible actions managers could take. 

Then managers select one of the actions. Next, 

people monitor the ecosystem and see if the 

objectives are achieved by the action that was 

chosen. Then managers adjust the next action 

based on the new information they learned. 

The cycle of taking action, monitoring 

results, and adjusting the next action is how 

managers learn more about the ecosystem. 

They can, therefore, make better decisions. 

It is important to design accurate models to 

help managers understand the ecosystem. 

This modeling also helps the managers make 

the most informed decisions possible about 

managing the ecosystem.

In this study, scientists wanted to examine 

how the harvest of horseshoe crabs in 

Delaware Bay affects the red knot (figures 4 

and 5). The red knot is a migratory bird (figure 

6). The red knot feeds primarily on the eggs of 

horseshoe crabs during its stopover in Delaware 

Bay (figures 7a and 7b). Thousands of 

shorebirds make the same stopover as the red 

knots and gorge themselves on food. Although 

the red knots eat a lot of horseshoe crab eggs, 

these eggs are mostly ones that would not 

have hatched. The eggs will not hatch because 

they are too close to the sand’s surface. As 

red knots feed, they nearly double their weight 

in 2 weeks. This weight gain allows the birds 

to continue on their strenuous migratory 

journey north to the Arctic to breed during the 

summer months. Figure 6. Thousands of red knots fly to Delaware 

Bay and land there to refuel for their long 

migratory journey. Photo courtesy of U.S. Fish 

and Wildlife Service, Gregory Breese.
40

Scientific Models in Adaptive Management Edition, http://www.naturalinquirer.org

Figures 7a and 7b. These tiny horseshoe crab eggs are what red knots eat to store energy. Photo 7a 

courtesy of U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Gregory Breese. Photo 7b courtesy of Dr. Conor McGowan.

Figure 8. Horseshoe crabs are harvested as 

bait for whelk. Whelk is a word used for many 

species of sea snails. Photo courtesy of Jo 

O’Keefe: http://okeefes.org/Whelks/Whelks.htm.

The population of red knots has declined 

from approximately 150,000 birds in the 

1990s to 15,000 birds in 2008. Today’s red 

knot population is low enough to be listed as 

a threatened species. A threatened species 

benefits from some protection under U.S. law. 

During this same time period, the harvest of 

horseshoe crabs has increased. Horseshoe 

crabs are harvested as bait for eels and whelk 

(figure 8). 

7a 7b

What Is Adaptive Management?

Have you ever heard that experience is the best teacher? This idea is the 

foundation of adaptive management.

Adaptive management is a way for land 

managers to deal with an unknown future 

and to learn from trying new things.

When land managers try something new, 

the outcome is evaluated. Based on the 

evaluation, the managers try another 

approach to improve their management.

The process continues, with managers 

continuing to learn and adapt.

Scientists often help managers by 

designing and implementing the evaluation 

process. As you can see, scientists are 

involved in some parts of the adaptive 

management process. Land managers, 

however, treat the entire adaptive management 

process as an experiment. What happens 

when you do an experiment? Hopefully, you 

learn from your experience!
41

The Natural Inquirer • Number 17

What Are 

Horseshoe Crabs?

Horseshoe crabs are one of the world’s oldest creatures. This type of animal is 

estimated to be at least 300 million years 

old. That’s pretty old, especially when you 

consider that the beginning of the Age of 

Dinosaurs was 230 million years ago. Were 

horseshoe crabs living on Earth before the 

dinosaurs? How do you know?

The horseshoe crab is an invertebrate.

The horseshoe crab belongs to the 

arthropods. It may look like a crab but it is 

The red knot population decline may be 

because of fewer horseshoe crab eggs in 

Delaware Bay. In addition, horseshoe crab 

blood is collected from live horseshoe crabs for 

pharmaceutical testing. This blood collection, 

however, is not believed to affect the horseshoe 

crab population. The scientists in this study 

wanted to figure out how to manage the 

harvest of horseshoe crabs in such a way that 

the populations of red knots and horseshoe 

crabs stopped declining. 

Figure 9. Horseshoe crabs may look like crabs, but they are more closely related to spiders 

and scorpions. Photo courtesy of U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Gregory Breese.

more closely related to spiders and scorpions 

(figure 9). Horseshoe crabs lay their eggs 

during breeding season in sandy beach 

habitats. During spring breeding, millions 

of crabs crawl up the beaches of Delaware 

Bay. This breeding cycle occurs at the same 

time as the lunar cycles. Horseshoe crabs, in 

particular, like to lay their eggs during the full 

moon and new moon in May and June. Visit 

http://www.udel.edu/research/explore/loader.

html to learn more about horseshoe crabs!

Number Crunch

b	 Whatis the difference in the number of

red knots stopping inDelaware Bay now

comparedwith 15 years ago?

Reflection Section

b	 In your ownwords and in the formof a

question, statewhatthe scientistswanted

to know.

b Do you think itis importantformanagers

to define objectives fortheirmanagement

decisions?Why orwhy not?
42

Scientific Models in Adaptive Management Edition, http://www.naturalinquirer.org

Adaptive Management in Your Life

Do you have a butterfly garden in your schoolyard? If you do not, pretend that 

you do. Your class has decided to use adaptive 

management to improve the garden. First, you 

must identify the problem and your objective.

Let’s say that only one species of butterfly 

visits your garden. This lack of variety is the 

problem. Your objective is to have as many 

butterfly species as possible visiting the 

garden. Your class does research in the media 

center. You identify two additional flowering 

plants and plant them in the garden.

Reflection Section

b	 Why do you think the scientistswanted a

populationmodelfor horseshoe crabs that

looked at bothmale and female horseshoe

crabs?

b Why did the scientists consider different

possiblemanagement actions?

b Why did the scientists group the red knots

into twoweight categories?

Methods

The scientists had to make a basic 

mathematical model to test different 

management practices. (Read about a 

mathematical model of a zombie attack on 

page 7.) The basic model had two parts. 

First, the scientists needed a horseshoe crab 

population model that looked at the effects of 

harvesting on both male and female horseshoe 

crabs. Second, the scientists needed a red knot 

population model that linked red knot survival 

to horseshoe crab breeding in Delaware Bay. 

After the scientists combined these two parts, 

they had a basic model in which they could run 

simulations. 

Using this basic model, the scientists created 

two specific mathematical models to represent 

two competing assumptions. The first model 

assumes that the amount a bird weighed at 

the end of the stopover had large effects on 

its survival. The second model assumes that 

the amount a bird weighed at the end of the 

stopover had a small effect on its survival. The 

second model assumes that heavy and light 

birds, in general, have similar survival rates. 

When the scientists were building the 

models, they needed to include certain types 

of data. For example, the scientists set initial 

population sizes at 1998 levels. They also 

included data about the number of horseshoe 

crabs coming onto the beaches for the period 

1998–2008. These data included the number 

of horseshoe crabs harvested in Delaware Bay. 

The scientists then used the models to predict 

what might happen with eight different possible 

management actions (figure 10).

After 2 weeks, you observe and record the 

butterfly species in the garden. You identify two 

additional species. After evaluating your results, 

your class does more research. You discover 

that butterflies like shallow pools of water. You 

create a shallow pool, wait 2 more weeks, 

and observe and record the butterfly species.

Another species is identified. After evaluating 

the results of your management, your class 

does more research. You discover that 

butterflies like to have shady as well as sunny 

spots to rest. What steps will you take next?
43

The Natural Inquirer • Number 17

You Are the 

Adaptive Manager!

I

n this article, you are learning about 

research and evaluation as a part of 

the adaptive management process. One 

important feature of adaptive management 

is its focus on an uncertain future. Scientists 

help managers by doing research. Scientists 

provide information that can be used to 

predict what might happen in the future.

Pretend you are the manager of the area 

being studied in this research. How would 

you use the findings of this study? What 

management action would you take? After 

taking the action, what would you ask the 

scientists to monitor?

Figure 10. Different management actions were based on different numbers of horseshoe crabs 

that could be harvested. In actions 7 and 8, no horseshoe crabs can be harvested when red knot 

abundance is less than the threshold.

Action Female Harvested Males Harvested

1 0 0

2 0 200,000

3 0 400,000

4 100,000 200,000

5 200,000 400,000

6 300,000 300,000

7 300,000 – (Red knot threshold is 30,000) 300,000 – (Red knot threshold is 30,000)

8 300,000 – (Red knot threshold is 60,000) 300,000 – (Red knot threshold is 60,000)

Findings

The scientists found that both models were 

sensitive to changes in horseshoe crab egg 

survival rates and juvenile horseshoe crab 

survival rates. Heavy harvest of horseshoe 

crabs decreased red knot abundance in both 

models, but had a much greater effect in model 

1. Recall that model 1 assumed that a bird’s 

survival was related to its weight. Harvesting 

only male horseshoe crabs had little effect on 

red knot population numbers in both models. 

Models 1 and 2 produced different 

predictions for the eight different possible 

management actions shown in figure 10. With 

no harvesting, for example, model 1 predicted 

that the median abundance of red knots 90 

years in the future would be about 65,000 birds. 

Model 2, however, predicted a population of 

around 200,000 red knots. The management 

action that restricted horseshoe crab harvesting 

until a certain number of red knots was present 

improved population predictions for the red 

knot.

Reflection Section

b	 Why do you think harvesting onlymale

horseshoe crabs had little effect on red knot

abundance?

b If youwere the scientist,would you

recommend that horseshoe crab harvests

be limited in the future?Why orwhy not?
44

Scientific Models in Adaptive Management Edition, http://www.naturalinquirer.org

Reflection Section

b	 Do you think thismodelwill be useful

tomanagers and naturalresource

professionals?Why orwhy not?

b Should the scientists continue to estimate

the populations of horseshoe crabs and red

knots next year?Why orwhy not?

Discussion

The scientists in this study developed 

the first models for predicting effects of 

management actions on horseshoe crab and 

red knot populations in Delaware Bay. The 

two models showed different results. Model 2 

showed faster red knot population growth.

What is the reason for using both models 

to make a management decision? Using two 

models helps scientists include things they are 

unsure about in the decisionmaking process. 

Let’s say the manager’s objective is to maximize 

the number of red knots. Using action 8 would 

be best even though scientists don’t know for 

sure whether red knot weight is important 

for survival. If the manager’s objective is to 

maximize the horseshoe crab harvest, however, 

action 7 would be the best. The models’ results 

show that managers may be able to conserve 

the red knot population, while allowing some 

horseshoe crab harvesting. 

The scientists suggested the best 

management strategy would be for managers 

to take actions based on what the models 

predicted. The best strategy would also take 

into account the current state of the ecosystem 

and management objectives. The scientists 

believed that additional data would help them 

decide which of the two models provides the 

best predictions. Additional data would also 

help create better models. Specifically, scientists 

suggested that more information is needed 

about the relationship between a red knot’s 

weight gain and the availability of horseshoe 

crab eggs. 

Adapted from McGowan, C.P.; Smith, D.R.; Sweka, J.A.; Martin, J.; Nichols, J.D.; Wong, R.; Lyons, J.E.; Niles, 

L.J.; Kalasz, K.; Brust, J.; Klopfer, M.; Spear, B. 2011. Multi-species modeling for adaptive management of horseshoe 

crabs and red knots in the Delaware Bay. Natural Resource Modeling. 24: 117–156. http://www.fws.gov/northeast/

fisherycenter/pdfs/McGowanetal2011.pdf.

Glossary 

abundance (ə bən dənt(s)): A degree of 

plentifulness.

Arctic (ärk tik): The Arctic Ocean and lands in 

and adjacent to it.

arthropod (är thrə päd): Any of a phylum of 

invertebrate animals (such as insects, arachnids, 

and crustaceans) having a segmented body, 

jointed limbs, and a shell of chitin that is shed 

periodically.

assumption (ə səm(p) shən): A fact or statement 

taken for granted.

breed (brēd): To produce offspring by sexual 

reproduction.

conserve (kən sərv): To avoid wasteful or 

destructive use of; to use carefully.

estuary (es chə wer ē): A passage where the tide 

meets a river current; especially: an arm of the 

sea at the lower end of a river.

gorge (gȯ(ə)rj): To eat in large amounts.

harvest (här vəst): To gather or collect.

invertebrate (in vərt ə brət): Lacking a 

backbone.

juvenile (jü və nīl): Showing incomplete 

development.

land manager (land ma ni jər): A skilled 

professional who takes care of the land.
45

The Natural Inquirer • Number 17

lunar cycle (lū nər sī kəl): The changing 

appearance of the moon as seen from Earth.

migrate (mī grāt): To pass from one region or 

climate to another usually on a regular schedule 

for feeding or breeding.

migratory (mī grə tōr ē): Having a way of life 

that includes migrations.

model (mäd əl): A simplified copy or 

representation of something to help human 

understanding.

new moon (n(y)ü mün): The moon’s phase 

when its dark side is toward Earth.

objective (əb jek tiv): An aim or goal.

pharmaceutical (fär mə süt i kəl): Of, relating 

to, or involved in pharmacy or the manufacture 

and sale of medicinal drugs.

simulation (sim yə lā shən): The imitation by one 

system or process of the way in which another 

system or process works.

strenuous (stren yə wəs): Marked by or calling 

for strength or energy.

structured (strək chərd): Organized.

threshold (thresh hōld): A level, point, or value 

above which something will take place and 

below which it will not.

Accented syllables are in bold. Marks and 

definitions are from http://www.merriam-webster.

com.

FACTivity

In this FACTivity, you will learn about 

the migration of the red knot and why 

different areas where the red knot stops 

are important for the red knots’ survival.

This journey is one of the longest migratory 

journeys, marking close to 9,000 miles or 

14,000 kilometers! 

Time Needed

Three 50-minute class periods

Materials

• A copy of the map for each student 

(see map on page 46)

• Pencils (one for each student)

• Books or Internet resources about 

stopover locations and the red knot

• Paper to make pamphlets

• Colored markers

Methods

1. First, take a map and locate each 

stop that the red knot makes on its 

migratory journey. Mark the Hudson 

Bay area, then the Delaware Bay area, 

Brazil, and finally Tierra Del Fuego.

2. After you have marked the areas on 

the map, draw lines in between the 

points to mark the entire 

length of the journey.

3. Learn a little bit about 

each area and why it is 

important for the red knot.

To complete this activity, your teacher 

will divide the class into small groups.

Each group will be assigned a migratory 

stop. (Note: If you have more than four 

groups, multiple groups can study the 

same stopover location).

4. Each group will pretend to be travel 

agents for the area assigned. You and 

other students are travel agents for red 

knot birds (not people). You will need 

to research your assigned stopover 

location and create a short presentation 

and pamphlet to entice the red knot 

to come and stop over at the assigned 

location. You will make a presentation 

to the class and can display your 

pamphlets on a bulletin board.

5. After you and the other students have 

shared your presentations, your teacher 

will facilitate a group discussion. This 

discussion will focus on the challenges 

of such a long journey and the 

importance of safe stopover locations.
Map by Lindsay Gnann. 

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The Natural Inquirer • Number 17

Web Resources

Shorebirds and Horseshoe Crabs

http://www.delawareestuary.org/publications/factsheets/

Horsecra.pdf

All About Horseshoe Crabs

http://www.udel.edu/research/explore/loader.html

Smithsonian Migratory Bird Game

http://nationalzoo.si.edu/scbi/migratorybirds/Education/

Kids_Stuff/Woth_game/default.cfm

Animal Planet Horseshoe Crab Information

http://animals.howstuffworks.com/arachnids/horseshoecrab-info.htm

U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Blog

http://www.fws.gov/news/blog/index.cfm/2011/5/3/

Delaware-Betting-on-Survival-in-Delaware-Bay

PBS Video Series About Red Knots and Horseshoe 

Crabs

http://www.pbs.org/wnet/nature/episodes/crash-a-taleof-two-species/introduction/592/

Note to Educators: A rubric for this 

FACTivity can be found at http://www.

naturalinquirer.org. After arriving at this 

Web site, click on educational resources and 

then lesson plans. Scroll down and you will 

see “Article Lesson Plans.” The rubric will 

be listed here.

If you are a Project Learning 

Tree (PLT) educator, you may 

use “Habitat Pen Pals” and 

“Web of Life” as additional 

activities. 
The Potential To Save Yellow-Cedar 

Trees Using Adaptive Management

Cedar Waxing 

or Waning?

Photo courtesy of Paul Hennon.
49

The Natural Inquirer • Number 17

Meet the Scientists

t

Dr. Paul 

Hennon, Plant 

Pathologist: My 

favorite science 

experience is 

working on a 

research team with 

scientists from 

different fields. Plus, 

my job takes me to 

so many remarkably 

beautiful, pristine, 

and remote places.

Dr. David D’Amore, Soil Scientist: 

My favorite science experience was 

conducting bird surveys in the forest.

I assisted the bird survey crew and 

had to get up 

before dawn, 

which meant 2 

a.m. in Alaska.

We hiked up 

into the forest, 

sat down 

in an area, 

remained very 

quiet, and 

listened to the different birds calling 

in the early morning light. During my 

normal workdays, I would be moving 

around making all kinds of noise, 

measuring trees, shouting instructions, 

or digging soil pits. I was amazed to 

hear the “noise” of the forest after I was 

quiet enough to listen.

Dr. Paul Schaberg, Plant Physiologist: 

My favorite science experience is getting an unexpected result 

to an experiment. Sure, it is great to develop a hypothesis, test it 

in an experiment, and then get results that show your hypothesis 

was correct. But sometimes you get results that are surprising and 

interesting. The results teach you something totally new. These novel

results can be very exciting. They help open up your imagination to 

unique thoughts and lead to the development of new hypotheses, 

new experiments, and new insights about the natural world.

Dr. Dustin Wittwer, 

Geospatial Services Specialist: 

My favorite science experience 

is collecting and analyzing 

geographic data from the 

remote and wild locations of 

Alaska. I love testing and using 

new and innovative technology 

to collect geographic data.

After collecting the spatial 

data, I feed it into Geographic 

Information Systems (GIS), like Google Earth, and then 

use the geographic data to solve scientific puzzles.

I used geographic data to help determine 

the causes of tree death in Alaska. I flew in small 

floatplanes and used mobile computer mapping 

systems and global navigation satellite systems to 

collect the data. We would be so remote at times that 

the airplane pilot would camp with us at the end of 

each day. The work, however, wasn’t always without 

risk. One time the airplane’s engine failed, and we 

had to land without power. Fortunately, the plane 

had floats, and we could glide to the water. I’ve also 

encountered bears, wolves, whales, caribou, moose, 

and musk ox while collecting data. I think seeing 

Alaskan wildlife is pretty cool!

Dr. Colin Shanley, 

Geographic Information 

Systems Analyst: My favorite 

science experience was 

spending the summer tracking 

mountain goats by foot in 

the Cascade Mountains of 

Washington and Oregon.

t

t

t

t

Glossary words are bold and are defined on page 58.
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Thinking About the 

Environment

A changing climate is causing 

some plant and animal species 

to move from their current 

habitat to a new habitat. For 

plants, the need to move 

might cause a problem. How 

does this move happen for plants, which are 

unable to move like animals? In new areas 

where the climate is favorable, plants spread 

through their seeds. Plant species move, 

therefore, by having their seeds germinate in 

more favorable environments.

Natural resource managers want to make 

the best possible decisions as the climate 

changes. To make these decisions, managers 

need as much information as possible. They get 

some of that information from scientists. In this 

study, the scientists wanted to understand how 

climate change was affecting the health of a 

particular tree species.

The scientists developed information to find 

the best way for the tree species to survive 

as the climate changes. Many tree species 

may be able to survive on their own as the 

climate changes. Others might need the help 

of humans. In this study, the scientists showed 

that the tree species they studied might need 

human help to survive in a changing climate. 

Now, managers can experiment with adaptive 

management options to see which one works 

best for this tree species.

Thinking About Science

Some research questions are 

complicated and can take many 

years to answer. Sometimes, 

many research studies are 

needed to discover the answer. 

When a research question is 

complicated, it may be answered 

slowly by different studies and over many years. 

Each study usually confirms or disproves what 

is thought to be true about one aspect of the 

question. In this research, the scientists wanted 

to know why a particular tree species was 

dying in the north Pacific coastal rainforest. To 

discover why this species was dying, scientists 

had to investigate aspects of the question one 

What Kinds of 

Scientists Did This 

Research?

geographic information systems 

analyst: This scientist uses the relationship 

of information and places on Earth’s surface 

to produce maps. Using these maps and 

other information, these scientists evaluate 

what the maps reveal about any place shown 

on the map.

geospatial services specialist: Like a 

geographic information systems analyst, this 

scientist uses any type of technology that 

accurately relates information to a place on 

Earth’s surface to increase understanding of 

that place.

plant pathologist: This scientist studies 

plant diseases. Most diseases in trees are 

caused by fungi. Plant pathologists also 

investigate other injuries to plants and trees, 

such as those caused by weather and climate.

plant physiologist: This scientist studies 

how plants function.

soil scientist: This scientist studies Earth’s 

soils.

by one. When they got one answer, they were 

ready to advance to the next study. 

This process of asking research questions, 

getting answers, and then asking more 

questions is similar to adaptive management. 

In adaptive management, however, managers 

make decisions and take actions each time new 

information is discovered. For scientists and 

managers, these actions create new research 

questions to explore.
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The Natural Inquirer • Number 17

How Do Plants Move?

To learn more about the movement of plants, visit http://www.

scienceinvestigator.org, Climate Change 

edition, and read, “Seed Ya Later!”

Figure 1. Yellow-cedar grows in the north Pacific coastal rainforest of southeastern Alaska.

Map by Lindsay Gnann.

Introduction 

One factor affecting the type, number, and 

location of tree species within forests is climate. 

As the climate changes, the tree species living 

in a forest may also change. This change 

means that some trees species may die and 

new species may move into the area. Scientists 

find it difficult to know for sure whether 

tree movement and tree death result from a 

changing climate. Other factors, not related to 

climate, may also cause a forest’s tree species to 

change. 

In this study, the scientists were interested 

in a change they observed in a particular 

rainforest. This rainforest is located along the 

Pacific coast in southeastern Alaska (figure 

1). In this rainforest, about 70 percent of the 

What Is Adaptive 

Management?

Have you ever heard that experience is the best teacher? This idea is the 

foundation of adaptive management. Adaptive 

management is a way for land managers to 

deal with an unknown future and to learn 

from trying new things. When land managers 

try something new, the outcome is evaluated.

Based on the evaluation, the managers 

might try another approach to improve their 

management. The process continues, with 

managers continuing to learn and adapt.

Scientists often help managers by 

designing and implementing the evaluation 

process. As you can see, scientists are 

involved in some parts of the adaptive 

management process. Land managers, 

however, treat the entire adaptive 

management process as an experiment.

To use adaptive management to solve the 

problem of dying trees, managers must learn 

many things. What occurs when you do an 

experiment? Hopefully, you learn from your 

experience!
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yellow-cedar trees have died in the past 100 

years (figures 2 and 3).

The cause of yellow-cedar death was 

unknown for many years. The scientists in this 

study spent 20 years discovering the probable 

cause of yellow-cedar death. Like detectives, 

when the scientists solved one riddle, they 

moved to the next. The question the scientists 

hoped to answer was, “What is causing the 

death of yellow-cedar trees in the north Pacific 

coastal rainforest?”

Figure 2. A mature yellow-cedar tree. Photo 

courtesy of Dr. Paul Hennon.

Figure 3. The light-colored tree boles show what 

is left of dead yellow-cedar trees in the West 

Chichagof-Yakobi Wilderness Area of coastal 

Alaska. Dead yellow-cedar trees can remain 

standing for 80 years after death. They can 

remain standing because of aromatic chemicals 

in their wood. These chemicals protect the wood 

from fungi. Photo courtesy of Dr. Paul Hennon.

Reflection Section

b	 What change did the scientists observe in

the north Pacific coastalrainforest?

b Name two reasonswhy yellow-cedaris

importantto Alaskans. Youmustread

“WhatIs Yellow-Cedar” on page 53 before

you answerthis question.

b	 Whatmightbe lostif yellow-cedartrees

continue to die in the north Pacific coastal

rainforest? Youmustread “WhatIs YellowCedar” on page 53 before you answerthis

question.
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The Natural Inquirer • Number 17

What Is Yellow-Cedar?

To Alaska Natives and all Alaskans, yellow-cedar is a culturally important tree. The wood and bark of yellowcedar trees are used by Alaska Natives for constructing 

shelter, clothing, baskets, canoes, canoe paddles, and totem 

poles (figure 4). Yellow-cedar is resistant to insects and 

decay. Because of this resistance, yellow-cedar wood is 

used for many durable products and is important to Alaska’s 

economy. Yellow-cedar trees grow slowly and can live up to 

1,000 years.

Figure 4. A handmade, yellow-cedar canoe made by 

Larry Bowers. Photo courtesy of Larry Bowers, 

http://www.westcountrycanoes.com.

Methods

In the late 1980s, a team of scientists 

observed the roots, boles, and crowns of 

yellow-cedar trees that were in various stages 

of dying. The scientists carefully observed the 

trees. The scientists found that in order of 

Figure 5. Death of yellow-cedar trees seemed to start from the fine roots and move upward 

through the tree. (1) shows a tree’s fine roots and (2) shows a tree’s coarse roots. Illustration by 

Stephanie Pfeiffer.

occurrence, the symptoms of upcoming death 

were: (1) fine root death; (2) coarse root

death; (3) attack of the weakened tree’s bole 

by insects, fungi, viruses, and other organisms; 

and (4) crown death (figure 5). The last leaves 

in the crown to die were the ones most distant 

t
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from the tree’s bole. From these observations, 

the scientists concluded that a living organism, 

such as an insect, did not cause the trees’ 

death. The scientists concluded the deaths 

had a nonliving cause related to the fine roots. 

It would be unlikely for an insect to cause the 

fine roots to die. It was only after the fine and 

coarse roots had died that insects attacked the 

trees.

To determine the cause of death, the 

scientists divided their research into smaller 

studies. In each of these studies, scientists 

observed and measured a different abiotic 

(ā bī ä tik) factor. Abiotic means it is a nonliving 

factor. Examples of abiotic factors studied 

include the amount of water in the soil, soil 

temperature, soil chemistry, air temperature, 

amount of forest cover, and the state of the 

climate near the soil surface. The scientists 

spent nearly 20 years studying these different 

abiotic factors. 

One of the abiotic factors studied was how 

well fine roots tolerated cold temperatures. 

It was difficult to study the roots because 

they were underground, so the scientists 

used a surrogate for the roots. The scientists 

measured the cold tolerance of leaves. They 

observed whether the tips of the leaves died 

following cold temperatures (figure 6). Cold 

tolerance is the degree to which leaves can live 

despite freezing temperatures. The scientists 

compared the cold tolerance of leaves of yellowcedar with western-hemlock trees. Westernhemlock trees growing in the same area were 

not dying. If the yellow-cedar trees were less 

cold tolerant than western hemlock trees, the 

scientists had another clue about yellow-cedar 

tree death. 

The scientists also simulated snow cover on 

young yellow-cedar trees (figure 7). They did 

this simulation because snow has an insulating 

effect on the ground. In cold climates, a blanket 

of snow keeps the ground warmer than it would 

be without the snow. 

Figure 6. The scientists measured the cold 

tolerance of leaves as a surrogate for the cold 

tolerance of roots. Illustration by Stephanie Pfeiffer.

Adaptive Management 

in Your Life

Do you have a vegetable garden in your schoolyard? If you do not, pretend 

that you do. Your class has decided to use 

adaptive management to improve the garden.

First, you must identify a problem and your 

objective. Let’s say that all of the vegetables in 

the garden are ready during the summer. This 

summertime harvest is a problem because 

your class observes a summer holiday.

The class objective is to produce 

vegetables that can be harvested during the 

school year. Your class does research in the 

media center. You identify four fall and winter 

vegetables and plant them in the garden.

After 2 months, you observe and record the 

plants’ progress. One of the vegetables has 

not survived. Two additional winter vegetables 

are identified. These vegetables are planted, 

and all vegetables are evaluated after another 

6 weeks. After evaluating your results, your 

class does more research. What steps will you 

take next? 
55

The Natural Inquirer • Number 17

Figure 7. The scientists simulated snow cover around young yellow-cedar trees to measure the 

snow’s insulating effect on the ground and the yellow-cedar roots. What do you notice about the tree 

on the right? This tree did not have simulated snow cover. Illustration by Stephanie Pfeiffer.

Reflection Section

b	 Examine figure 5 and reread the finaltwo

paragraphs ofthe previous section.What

do you think the scientists discovered about

the cold tolerance of yellow-cedars?

b Howmight climate change be involved in

the death of yellow-cedarfine roots?

Findings

The scientists discovered that when the 

soil temperature around a seedling dropped 

to less than -5 degrees Celsius (C), the fine 

roots were severely injured and the seedling 

died. The temperature dropped below this 

point when snow cover had melted enough so 

that it no longer provided protection from the 

cold. Later, the scientists discovered that when 

the temperature was less than -5 degrees C, 

fine roots of large, mature trees also died. This 

temperature was reached in shallow soils when 

no snow was on the ground.

The scientists also discovered that the 

yellow-cedar trees were dying on wet, poorly 

drained soils. When soils are wet, the fine 

roots tend to be shallow. These shallow roots 
56

Scientific Models in Adaptive Management Edition, http://www.naturalinquirer.org

are more likely to be affected by freezing 

temperatures when no snow is present.

The scientists compared the progression 

of yellow-cedar tree death with other studies of 

tree death. When the roots of trees are injured, 

they cannot provide the tree with water and 

nutrients, and the tree eventually dies. 

The scientists concluded that snow cover 

that remains into the spring protects yellowcedar roots from injury. As the climate warms, 

snow cover does not remain as long into 

the spring. Although the climate is gradually 

warming, Alaskan spring temperatures may still 

drop to less than freezing. A lack of or reduced 

snow cover enables the soil to freeze, killing the 

fine roots near the soil surface.

Reflection Section

b	 A paradox is a seeming contradiction.What

is the paradox ofthis study’s findings?

b Reread “Thinking Aboutthe Environment.”

What do you think the scientists

recommended to help keep yellow-cedar

trees alive in Alaska?

Reflection Section

b	 Adaptivemanagementis away tomanage

naturalresources so the best decisions

can bemade under changing conditions.

Explain howthe scientists’recommendation

about yellow-cedar can be used in adaptive

management.

b Whywould yellow-cedartrees need

managers’ help tomove into amore suitable

environment? See “Thinking Aboutthe

Environment” for a clue.

b Howcould themodel in figure 8 be used in

adaptivemanagement?

Adapted from Hennon, P.E.; D’Amore, D.V.; Schaberg, 

P.G.; Wittwer, D.T.; Shanley, C.S. 2012. Shifting 

climate, altered niche, and a dynamic conservation 

strategy for yellow-cedar in the North Pacific coastal 

rainforest. Bioscience. 62: 147- 158.

http://www.treesearch.fs.fed.us/pubs/40035.

Discussion

The scientists’ research revealed some 

actions that managers can take to help yellowcedar trees adapt under changing climate 

conditions. Yellow-cedar trees grow slowly. 

Without help from managers, the trees may 

be unable to reproduce in colder areas that still 

have enough spring snow cover. The scientists 

recommended that managers plant yellowcedar seedlings in colder areas (figure 8). 

The scientists also recommended that 

yellow-cedar seedlings be planted in deeper, 

well-drained soils. Yellow-cedar trees need help 

to move into these two kinds of areas. Without 

help, the trees may not be able to move fast 

enough on their own to adapt to climate 

change.

You Are the 

Adaptive Manager!

Pretend you are the natural resource manager for these areas of yellow-cedar.

You have just been told about the findings 

of this research. You want to use adaptive 

management in your practice. What are two 

things you would do next?
57

The Natural Inquirer • Number 17

Figure 8. Three zones for yellow-cedar were identified. This illustration is a model of the scientists’ 

yellow-cedar management recommendations. The scientists recommended that managers take 

action to help yellow-cedar move into a zone that will help them live into the future. Illustration by 

Stephanie Pfeiffer.

Figure 9. Cedar waxwing. Photo by Bill 

Thompson and courtesy of the U.S. Fish 

and Wildlife Service.

The title, “Cedar Waxing or Waning?” comes 

from two sources. Waxing means getting larger and 

waning means getting smaller. The moon, except 

for its full and new moon phases, is always either 

waxing or waning. (Will the moon be waxing, 

waning, full, or new tonight?) The second source is 

the cedar waxwing (figure 9). The cedar waxwing is 

a migratory bird that eats fruit, particularly berries. In 

the winter, the bird migrates from Southern Canada 

to the Southern United States. The cedar waxwing 

can be found in the Northern United States all year.
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Scientific Models in Adaptive Management Edition, http://www.naturalinquirer.org

Glossary

aromatic (a rə ma tik): Having a strong smell.

bole (bōl): Tree trunk.

coarse root (kȯrs rūt): The thicker root 

structure of a plant when compared with the 

finer roots.

crown (krȧun): The leaves of a tree.

fine root (fīn rūt): The small, hair-like roots 

growing out of a plant’s coarse roots.

forest cover (fȯr əst kə vər): The area of land 

covered by forest crowns.

iconic (ī kän ik): Of or pertaining to an icon. An 

icon is a picture representation, a symbol.

maladapted (ma lə dap təd): Poorly suited or 

unsuited.

novel (nä vəl): New and not resembling anything 

used or known before.

pristine (pris tēn): Not spoiled or polluted.

seedling (sēd liŋ): A young plant grown from 

seed.

simulate (sim yə lāt): To give the appearance or 

effect of.

spatial (spā shəl): Relating to, occupying, or 

having the character of space or area.

species (spē sēs): Groups of organisms that 

resemble one another in appearance, behavior, 

chemical processes, and genetic structure.

surrogate (sər ə gāt): Substitute.

totem pole (tō təm pȯl): A pole carved and 

painted with totems and set up by native Alaskan 

peoples. A totem is an honored symbol.

wilderness area (wil dər ness er ē ə): An 

area in the United States designated by law 

for preservation and protection in its natural 

condition. A wilderness area also refers to a 

large unspoiled natural area.

Accented syllables are in bold. Marks and 

definitions are from http://www.merriam-webster.

com.

FACTivity

Time Needed

One class period

Materials (for each 

small group)

• Blank sheets of paper

• Pencils

• Natural Inquirer Wilderness Benefits 

edition (order for free or download at 

http://www.naturalinquirer.org)

• Natural Inquirer Invasive Species 

edition (order for free or download at 

http://www.naturalinquirer.org)

• USA Today article on yellow-cedar 

decline: http://www.usatoday.com/

weather/climate/2006-03-27-yellowcedar_x.htm 

• Wikipedia article on assisted tree 

migration: http://en.wikipedia.org/

wiki/Assisted_migration

• This article 

In this FACTivity, you will consider the 

recommendation made by the scientists 

in this study. You will also discuss the 

advantages and disadvantages of following 

the scientists’ recommendation. You will 

then consider a bigger question: When, if 

ever, should natural resource managers 

make changes to large areas of wildland? 

Background

When managers practice adaptive 

management, they anticipate and prepare 

for the future. They take actions now that 

they believe will bring about desired results 

in the future. Managers continually evaluate 

what they are doing and make changes 

as needed. In this research, the scientists 

recommended planting yellow-cedar trees 

in areas where they have not been found 

before. In Alaska, these areas are large 

areas of undeveloped forest land where 

other tree species currently grow.
59

The Natural Inquirer • Number 17

Methods

Consider a section of a newspaper article 

written by Barry Saxifrage. This newspaper 

article was published on February 9, 2012, 

in the Vancouver (British Columbia, Canada) 

Observer. This newspaper article was written 

about the yellow-cedar research you just 

read. The first sentence that follows refers to 

the scientists’ suggestion that yellow-cedar 

seedlings be planted in areas where they do 

not now live.

In other words, we may be forcing 

ourselves and future generations to 

become permanent gardeners of the 

“wilderness.” And not just for yellowcedars. Already serious discussions are 

underway for other iconic long-lived trees 

like the giant sequoias of California. They 

too are becoming “maladapted” to their 

ancient habitat as a result of fossil fuel 

pollution reducing snowfall and overall 

precipitation. Surveys show the number of 

giant trees dying each year has doubled.

Concern is growing over the inability of 

seedlings to thrive in the drying climate.

Scientists and forest managers talk about 

the need to water, raise, and even possibly 

transplant these trees to new regions. For 

trees that can live thousands of years, the 

rapid climate shift underway now is going 

to be a struggle.

Note that Mr. Saxifrage also mentioned 

another tree species humans may need 

to rescue from a warming climate. Many 

tree species may need help being located 

to a new habitat. Mr. Saxifrage asked the 

question: 

How long will humans choose to garden 

increasingly large swaths of the wild to try 

to prevent a collapse of species richness 

and biodiversity? How much can we really 

do even if we decide we want to?

Your teacher will divide the class into 

small groups. Each group will do research 

and decide which of the following two 

positions to take: (1) We must modify large 

areas of forest now by planting yellow-cedar 

tree seedlings or (2) We should not modify 

native forests by planting yellow-cedar tree 

seedlings where yellow-cedar has not grown 

before. You may use the resources given to 

you by your teacher, or you may access the 

Internet, use the media center, and simply 

reflect on and discuss the question.

Take a blank sheet of paper and write 

either “Plant yellow-cedar” or “Do not 

plant yellow-cedar” at the top. Draw a line 

down the middle of the page and across 

the page, half way down. Label the top 

section “Advantages” and the bottom 

“Disadvantages.” As a group, research and 

discuss your topic.

As a group, take 20 minutes to discuss 

and list the advantages and disadvantages 

of planting or not planting yellow-cedar.

Then, present your findings and hold a class 

discussion about planting yellow-cedar.

Share your group’s position and reasons for 

taking that position. Finally, consider and 

discuss the related larger question, “When, 

if ever, should natural resource managers 

make purposeful changes to large areas of 

wildland?” 
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Web Resources

How trees might move in a changing climate

http://www.naturalinquirer.org and read, “Moving On 

Up” in the Climate Change edition

“Freezing to Death in a Warming Climate: YellowCedars in Trouble”

http://www.vancouverobserver.com/blogs/climatesnapshot/2012/02/09/freezing-death-warming-climate-yellow-cedars-trouble?page=0,0

USA Today article on yellow-cedar decline

http://www.usatoday.com/weather/climate/2006-03-27-

yellow-cedar_x.htm

Note to Educator: If you are a Project Learning Tree (PLT) educator, you 

may use “Trees in Trouble” as an additional activity.

Assisted tree migration

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assisted_migration

Totem poles

http://www.native-languages.org/totem.htm

For a Natural Inquirer article about the roots of 

trees

http://www.naturalinquirer.org, “FACE Look”

FACTivity Extension

Additional FACTivity Extension

You will write a short newspaper editorial or a blog that responds 

to Mr. Saxifrage’s questions.

In small groups, create an adaptive 

management experiment to figure out 

where yellow-cedar seedlings grow best.

Write up your experiment to include a 

research question, management action, 

and what and how you will monitor the 

effects of the management 

action. Use your knowledge 

of adaptive management to 

place this experiment into 

an adaptive management 

process.
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The Natural Inquirer • Number 17

Scientific Models in 

Adaptive Management 

Word Search
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Scientific Models in Adaptive Management Edition, http://www.naturalinquirer.org

Scientific Models in Adaptive 

Management Photo Challenge

Each of the following appeared in one of the articles in this journal.

Explain what each of these photos represent. You may write your 

explanation or hold a class discussion. If you write your explanation, 

use complete sentences and proper spelling, grammar, and punctuation.

Photo courtesy of U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Gregory Breese.
63

The Natural Inquirer • Number 17

Photo by Babs McDonald.
(A generic Common Core State Standards alignment for the Natural Inquirer can be 

found on the “Education Standards” page under “Educational Resources” at the 

Natural Inquirer Web site, http://www.naturalinquirer.org.) The Golden 

EggAt Your ServiceTying the KnotCedar Waxing or Waning?

Science as Inquiry

 Abilities Necessary To Do Scientific Inquiry

 Understandings About Scientific Inquiry

Life Science

 Regulation and Behavior

 Populations and Ecosystems

 Diversity and Adaptations of Organisms

 Reproduction and Heredity

Earth Science

 Structure of Earth System

Science in Personal and Social Perspectives

 Risks and Benefits

 Science and Technology in Society

 Natural Hazards

History and Nature of Science

 Science as a Human Endeavor

 Nature of Science

Which National Science 

Education Standards Can 

These Articles Address?

The Golden EggAt Your ServiceTying the KnotCedar Waxing or Waning?

Culture

Time, Continuity, and Change

People, Places, and Environments

Power, Authority, and Governance

Production, Distribution, and Consumption

Science, Technology, and Society

Global Connections

National Education Standards 

Which National Curriculum 

Standards for Social Studies 

Can These Articles Address?

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65

The Natural Inquirer • Number 17

What Is the Forest 

Service?

The Forest Service is part of 

the United States Department 

of Agriculture (USDA). The 

Forest Service is made up of 

thousands of people who care for 

the Nation’s forest land. The Forest Service 

manages more than 150 national forests 

and nearly 20 national grasslands. These are 

large areas of trees, streams, and grasslands.

National forests are similar in some ways to 

national parks. Both are public lands, meaning 

they are owned by the public and managed 

for the public’s use and benefit. Both national 

forests and national parks provide clean 

water, homes for the animals that live in the 

wild, and places for people to do fun things 

in the outdoors. National forests also provide 

resources for people to use, such as trees 

for lumber, minerals, and plants used for 

medicines. Some people in the Forest Service 

are scientists whose work is presented in the 

journal. Forest Service scientists work to solve 

problems and provide new information about 

natural resources so that we can make sure 

our natural environment is healthy, now and 

into the future.

http://www.fs.fed.us.

The USGS is part of the 

United States Department of the 

Interior. The USGS is a science 

organization that provides 

impartial information about the—

• Health of our ecosystems 

and environment

What Is the Cradle 

of Forestry in 

America Interpretive 

Association?

The Cradle of Forestry 

in America Interpretive 

Association is a 501(c)3 

nonprofit organization 

based in Pisgah Forest, 

North Carolina. The interpretive association 

strives to help people better understand 

ecology through recreation and education 

opportunities. Their projects include the 

following:

• Campground and recreation area 

management

• Educational programs and services, 

including Natural Inquirer, Investi-gator, 

and Nature-Oriented Parenting

• Sales of forest-related gifts and 

educational materials

• Workshops, newsletters, and 

publications

• Partnership with the Forest Service to 

provide programming at the Cradle of 

Forestry Historic Site

http://www.cfaia.org

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination in all its programs and activities on the basis of race, color, national origin, age, 

disability, and where applicable sex, marital status, familial status, parental status, religion, sexual orientation, genetic information, political beliefs, 

reprisal, or because all or part of an individuals’ income is derived from any public assistance program. (Not all prohibited bases apply to all programs.) 

Persons with disabilities who require alternative means for communication of program information (Braille, large print, audiotape, etc.) should contact 

USDA’s TARGET Center at 202-720-2600 (voice and TDD). To file a complaint of discrimination, write to USDA, Director, Office of Civil Rights, 1400 

Independence Avenue, S.W. Washington, D.C. 20250-9410, or call 800-795-3272 (voice) or 202-720-6382 (TDD). USDA is an equal opportunity 

provider and employer.

What Is the United States Geological Survey (USGS)?

• Natural hazards that threaten us

• Natural resources on which we rely 

• Effects of climate and land use change

• Core science systems that help us 

provide timely, relevant, and useable 

information 

http://www.usgs.gov.
66

Scientific Models in Adaptive Management Edition, http://www.naturalinquirer.org

FS-1030

Summer 2014

United States 

Department 

of Agriculture

Forest Service

Natural Inquirer 

http://www.naturalinquirer.org

Investi-gator

http://www.scienceinvestigator.org

Forest Service Conservation Education 

http://www.fs.usda.gov/conservationeducation

U.S. Geological Survey 

http://www.usgs.gov

U.S. Geological Survey Education 

http://education.usgs.gov/

Follow us on Twitter (@naturalinquirer) and Facebook 

(http://www.facebook.com/NaturalInquirer)!

Web Site Resources

Editorial Review Boards Sandy Creek Teen Camp, Athens-Clarke County, 

Georgia, Katie Barnett, Camp Director

Brethren Middle School, Brethren, Michigan, Gail Bennett and Rachel Edmondson, Teachers