# Shipments ofClothesWashers (excluding compacts and exports) 10



# 9 History Projected
8 

# 7

- 6

- 

# 5

- --

# "Historical (1957-1996) 4§E fI: 

# A YrY~~~~~~~~~-a- Projected (1981-2030)

-- regress20 years 3

- 

# , -- regress 40years ,'; '-- regress 30years 2 -- regress 10years

19516 195 9017 19 19519 1I9520 205 01 05220 0523 

# 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 

# '4

# Historical Shipments ofClothesWashers, 1957

- 1996 

# (excluding compacts and exports) 10

9 8 7 6 5- 4 3 2 1

1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

# Shipments ofClothes Washers (excluding compacts andexports) 10 9 -iHistory Projected



# 4-1· < 

# -regress 20years 9 -/ ~~~~ ~ ~ -- 

# regress 40 years 

# 3 *0 

# - regress 30years 8

-

4 

# regress20 years

OIf. regress 10 years



# 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

# Shipments ofClothesWashers (excluding compacts andexports) 10



# 9 History Projected -o- Historical (1957-1996)

-- Total Shipment (1981-2030) 7

- -o- Replacement Units 

# e-

# NewUnits toNewHouses 6 5 4 3

- 2-

0

-



# 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030Historical and Calculated Shipment (millions) ofAutomaticClothes Washers Standard only,not including compact and wringer
:A8AM 5 I iAM mU tIc, Illter.lI CiuI. Shlpment Regres R.ege Regr Rrgte ,11E0 USSHlpaimn i Expert|i ShIpment DomnesIc kepl. New TotlI (1987-1996) (l1977-1996) (19671996) (1957-1996) lei.mepeur (eel import &

npn [et T97199- 6(reil. irt xt) ShIpmel compacts 72 a from 1971-1979nletrpollad (combined) -103.7925 -210.8937 -149.6605 -165A4576 (sifter1970) AppI Magazine 1996m to1995 0.0551 0.1088 0,0780 0.0860 1957 1958 

### . 9'2j AMH (1972 e 19

8 5us Shiptee 1999 f-2 5 ??OZ#52Ž tem Appi Mgonrier eechmat.he 1960 A ¶ l HAMFctBokaitr 1916 9 d 1961 $ 93 16 5c6661 I(9enet96l f-t 1980: 19c9) 1962 

### 1963 1964 30, 5.15 5.15 19765 -f 9 4.19606 1969 1967

- high hem 1970 en heomam ii eoclmdd 197801 S (1960.1969) i 3 (1960-1969) .a4043 c4mp7l 4.7r 1969 496 34.757 49 4 3737 o1970 35~.8........1:; 12 39.812 1971 8. 427i 0 d-- dl 0,064 4.206 4.206 1972 '4 40. 070 4.754 4.754 1985735 3 0.076 5.178 5.158 1974 0.082 4.631 4.631 1975 t 40.088 2 3944 3.944 1976 [ 44.28i0..4094 4.194 4.194 1977 f5. .. +0 aim0 4.639 4.639 1970 (19701979) ,43 (1970-1979) 0.106 4.732 4.732 1979 'fI41 48.245 ,,7 i797' 4.4528 0112 4.667 4.667 1980 

### Z.49 I421 09 4-.591 5 4.308 1991 4 277"" 'l6' '6 . 5.754 136 4.1136 3.514 0.991 4.505 1982 338I90
. 0 129 31826 3.826 2.997 0.951 3.949 1993 45446wi: L~'- u 0 I'" .431 4.431 3.035 1.449 4.484 1994 4.945 4.945 3.135 1.463 4.597 1915 3279 097- 5.182 5.182 3,988 1.473 5.460 1996 0-S795m7 6 669 5.619 4.138 1.553 5.691 t1996iliJS7 7i98l 5373 5.730 4.275 1.473 5.752 19988 :. 196' (1980-1989) i' 40 7 587 5.787 4.251 1.432 5.682 1999 02 a in32 1 93 5.867 5.867 4.174 1.74 5.547 1991 6 972- 96 5.504 5.504 4.349 1.108 5.457 199 6 5.754 5.754 4.326 1.340 5.666 1993 16;793 .7 62 6.023 023 4.292 1.484 5.777 2015,254 7035 1~ 6141 14 .66.141 473 .6 5.959 1995 690 ,4 0112 6.076 6.070 4.172 1.61 5.791 1996 : 35 0.825L 6.210 6.210 4.015 1.738 5.753 1997 4.191 1.429 5.620 6.173 6.402 6.141 6.241 1998 4.468 1.467 5.935 6,228 66.11 6.219 6.327 1999 4.82 1.563 6.386 6.283 6.619 6.197 6.413 2000 5.103 1.618 6.721 6.338 6.72 6.375 6.499 2001 5.254 1.646 6.900 6.394 6.837 6.453 6.515 2002 5.254 1.670 6.925 6.449 6.946 6.531 6.671 2003 5.193 1.711 6.903 6.504 7.085 6.609 6.757 2010 5.156 15.728 688 6559 7.164 6.687 6.843 2005 5.174 1.726 6.899 6.614 7.272 6.765 6.929 2OD6 5.259 1.732 6.990 6.669 7.381 6.843 7.015 2007 5.347 1.754 7.102 6.724 7.490 6.921 7.101 2008 5.401 1.744 7.146 6.779 7.599 6.999 7.187 2009 5.391 1.721 7.112 6.834 7.708 7.077 7.273 2010 5.383 1.728 7.112 6.89 7.816 7.155 7.359 2011 5.452 1.765 7.217 6.944 7.925 7.233 7.445 2012 5.635 1.807 7.441 6.999 8,034 7.311 7.531 2013 5.893 1.832 7.725 7.054 8.143 7.389 7.617 2014 6.156 1.837 7.993 7.109 8.252 7.467 7.703 2015 6.346 1.820 8.165 7.164 8.360 7.545 7.789 2016 6.439 1.823 8.263 7.220 8.469 7.623 7.715 2017 6.468 1.828 8.296 7.275 8.578 7.701 7.961 2018 6.479 1.833 8.312 7.330 8.687 7.779 8.047 2019 6.509 1.834 8.343 7.385 8.796 7.857 8.133 2020 6.559 1.834 8.393 7.440 8.905 7.935 8.219 2021 6.610 1.834 8.444 7.495 9.013 8.013 8.305 2022 6.649 1.834 8.485 7.550 9,122 8.091 8.390 2023 6.679 1.834 0.513 7.605 9.231 8.169 8.476 2024 6.732 1.834 8.566 7.660 9.340 8.247 8.562 2025 6.94 1.834 8.675 7.715 9.449 8.325 8.648 2026 7:016 1834 8.850 7.770 9357 8.403 8.734 2027 7.232 1.834 9.066 7.825 9.666 8.481 8.820 2028 7.444 1,834 9.278 7.880 9.775 8.559 8.906 2029 7.616 1.834 9.450 7.935 9.884 8.637 8.992 2030 7.730 1.834 9.564 7.990 9.993 11.715 9.078Clothes WasherShipment Calculation SF MF MB %

Jla.

lancwvanL a~ 1993 l % \% 1% max

nw aniono 100% 97% 97f

N Sr MwjS l R bi, RP1 IV,. RPIA Y-ar Skipmnl Shipmll U/ts Untz Uai N VU.i. SF MF MB SF MF MB SF MF MB SF MF MB SF MF MB RECSCalculated 1957 2.71 2.78 1951 2.71 .56 am. 1959 2.9 .50 am0.00 1960 156 i11.06 .o 1961 .67 13.72 am0.00 162 2.91 16.70 am. 1963 3o 20.0 m 0am 1964 3.54 23.M 0 . 196 5 .7727,.310.00 1966 3.9 31.20 am0.00 1967 3.88 35.01 am. 196 4.10 39.11 0
. 1969 4,07 42.17 0.39 1970 3.81 45.67 1 .00 197t 1 4.21 47.0 1.72 1972 4.75 49.0 2 132 1973 5.16 51.39 2.68 1974 4.63 53.38 2.76 1975 3.94 4.50 2.84 1976 4.19 55.57 3. 1977 4 .64 56.79 3.24 1978 4.73 57.15 3.48
1910 4.9 59-71
. 3.1 ,13 1.14 4.97 f6,1* 284q 65J.% 94.7i 37.9 7W4J% ri56;(1^ 20M.||4O , |0. 703 173.3» 1914s I.o0 33 3.93 3.51 0.99 4.530 lq: ; :i 

# A ~iNN:Ei..ljl :=?.il I am am a" o.o64 7 3.5 726A 19. 3.95 6 00 3.97 3.00 0.95 3.95 8.,% 29.6% 65.9% 93.8% 3J09 7.6I% .i~?,^ i| i 056 oD0 0.74 7Q 3* 7,.9. 1983 4, 4 6." 4.01 3.03 1.45 4.48 86.;% 30. 7 6MM. J 9J.%o 3d.2%L76.6% 57.65 23.00 4.40 1.12 0.4 0.00 703% 71.3% 195 5.46 3 .35 J.9 1.47 5.46 S9 32.1% 69^ 9132% 37J% 78$% S8.53 24.07 5.10 0.14 20 all 2m 71.6 7110* 1916 5.69 63.11 4.56 4.14 1.55 J.69 .% 3.3% 71.7 94.2% 39.6% 7.4% 9.47 24.53 5.10 0.2M 0.16 O.4 72L4 M01. 1987 5.75 63.99 4.61 4.27 IA.4 5.75 8::*^ a i

^ s

' a i

^^ t I ' a 

# ~i^..^^ E I iS^^^'SS^ 1 ^ a 

# A 1 a SS 0. 23 73.3% M a

.

7 1918 5.61 65.25 4. 4 4.25 1.43 5.6 91.0% 32.J3% 76.6 95.8% 52.3% 84.1% 61.72 24.81 5.14 0. 0.60 all 74,1% 71.2 1919 5.55 66.71 4.44 4.17 1.37 5.55 91.8%32.1%79.1% 96.2% 62.7% 7.9%63.04 24.61 5.17 0. 0.3am 7 0.16 75.3J 71.9% 190 5.412 67.76 4.40 4.16 L.,6 5.42 I ~ ~L?g~: ~.[ ?:.~ am 0,49 0.15 7 JU ,LI 1991 3416 68.55 41.47 4.35 1.11 5.46 92.9%3 JIJ% 82% 97.7» 73.9n 9 .7% mmt a2 0 .M5 76A6% 7Ma 19 567 60.46 4.63 4.33 *1.34 5.67 93.2% 31% 83.1j% 98,6» 74.7» 93.6% 0.2 02 0.09: 76.8t n5J% 1993 5. 70

. 53 4. 71 4 2 9. 1 4 5.'" 72~I "* 6% 75.4 9 4. 6% 0. 3 0

. 22 0 l 3 77

. 1 % 73

.. "194 5.96 71.77 4.61 4.27 1.69 5.96 I00.0f 762% 95.5| 0.21 0.11 (),19 733% M1995 35.79 73.. 4.31 4.17 I.62 5.79 1000ft 76.9f 96.fa': 0.21 :' o. I .19 73-9 196 5.735 74.711 4.44 4.02 1.74 5.75 100 77-7% 97.0M : ^ 0.30 (,12 MM4 6» 1997 ,62 5.5 4.54 4.19 1.43 5.62 1 7L.5» 7.01t 0. 0.11 0.20 ItA1 1998 5953 76.74 4.2 4.47 1.47 5.93 100.0L 79.3» 97.0" | ; ;6- | ' Mn' 0.22 0.11 0.21 75.1V 199

9 639 77.5, 5.18 4.2 1.56 6.3 l t.. 97 .09 ' lS°~ '^"''T"^^'-~'^" " ' ':t 0V.2 0.11 0.21 7.5.1 200 6.7 79.601 547 5.110 1.64 6.72 Imo m0 m 92» 97.09 0Q/ O.26 0.11 0.21 75.2% 20? 6I0 79.79 5.62 5.25 1.-63 6.90 (lmO 81.7% 97M.0' 0.sa ^^ I ° 23 all0.° 2 2 7 !.% i 2 6. 81.10 .63 5.2 1.67 6.,91 I 10 98.05 9i7.0. |?4~:~ 0.2" 0.1 0.2u 7.9 2023 96.90 1491 .3 7 .19 1.71 6.90 1000% 973.3% 97.o0 Ml9!~ L~ ^^^I$;3 .2. a O (.22 7629 20 6.90 1 3.92 .54 5.16 13
. 100.0, 84.1- 97.0 0. 2 012 0.22 76.* 205 6.90 15.27 5.546 3.17 1.n 6.90 10 I(« ST.0 97.04 MU^^^^^^^^J r l° 0.12 02 71-2% 2()6 6M9 16.53 5.65 3.26 1.73 6.99 10ET% 15.8, 97.0% ^^^^|ji^^^| || 4 .2 023 71.5% 2007 7.10 7.81 3.74 5.35 1.75 7.10 10-,0» IN.7» 97-.0 MU^^^^^^^^^^ i 1 ^^^^' 1 ^^ ^^ ° 12 0

. 23 71-P

................... 13. 5.4 .7
. 17,6-tt.S. S74 IS16 97. .24 .12 M..2
.. 7.. 200 7.11 9WAS1 3.7 5.39 1.72 7.11 10Q.Oa 8I.4« 97.0- 5^^^^^^p3»^ a23 013 .23 7»94» 21& 7.11 S1.71 5.79 5.8 1 7.11 1 0 B9.3» 7. iS&^^ 023 013 0.23. 7 10111 7.22 P93.20 5.86 5.45 1.77 7-22 10mo%912R 97.0ntt Rettrtng =ntt 0.25 01¢ 0.24 929A 012 7.4411 94.49 -6.05 3.63 1.81 7.44 I10M0 91.1- 97Un0t a(Hln Strt) ao . of 79 n5 ho 1013 1.13 95.. 6.31 S.., I.., n.IJ M M 0.21 "A. W. 714 7J19 9.M 9 6.57 6.16 1.84 7.99 C)MET 919 97.0» m 0.26 013 0. 79-8% 015 U1. 1 99,13 6.7 .7 6435 !.a 8.17 10MM 93.9- 97.0MCB^^^^^^^^^ 0.26 a14 0.2 80.0% 2016 8.M6 99M W 6. " 6.44 1. 2 8.2A 10a0 94.8« 97.0» |ia^^l.f~ia^^ 0.26 014 024 W3% 217 830 100-90 6.90 6.47 1.83 9.30 9I9l&1 95.1 917.0 ^j^^^tlt^"^ 0.27 0.14 025 B0.7» 011 8.13110 I31 6.91 6.1 1.83 8.31 100 9677» 970

- siat^M^^B^^^^ 0.1 0.14 0.27 M5 81.0 2019 834 103-70 6.94 6.31 1.83 i.34 100.0» 97.0% 97.0» ^^^^g^^^^ ^J^^^^^^ 0.27 014 025 81.4% 2020 8.39 1 I0.0 7.0 6.56 1.93 8.39 mm0.09 97.0% 97.09 017 0.1 023 II.1.% 221 1.44 106" . 7.05 6.61 1.83 1.44 I, 97.0» 97. muSoa Mi.0 0,23 fl3% =222 .48 107.74 7.10 6.65 1.3 A.4 100 97.0» 97.0tt l^^^t^^S.Ml 97M 0 .2 1 MIT M" Z2 l 203 *Jl 10?.13 7.13 6.1 1.83 1-31 10 " 97.0 97.0 021 0.15 025 B2h%6 24 8IJ7 110O,1 7 1.19 6.73 1.13 8.,57 10a0% 97.0 97.0" ^^^^^^^ 0.28 M13 025 19%. 2025 87 S111.137.30 C6M8 1.I3 8.67 1000 OJT 97.0» 97.0» ^^^^^Pj^^ o%° a l 5 am 83.1% 2026 1.813 113.12 7.48 IS.M 1.83 1.13 I10)% 97.0» 97.0M ^^^^M^^^^^ ^^^^^^^^1 0° 2 9 °- 15 °- 6 8 3

. 4% 207 9,07 11.M4 7.69 7.23 1.13 9.07 I - ml000 97.0 97.0"t 029 0.13 026 .3.6« 22 9.21` 115.55 7.91 7.44 1.3 9.2U l0)00 97.0» 97-0» ^^ ^^^^^^ ^i^. 29 -1 026 83.7. 2M29 9A5 i& 116.79 0 7.6 1I 0 94 100 971"k 97.01 nr - <1

- 30 0

- 16 a 2& '3

. 1 230 6 9,56 MM 100I0* 97.0ft 97.0ft |^^%g^^.l^| 0.30 0.16 M.26- __ 4.2 llll^K~it*^'^ ^^^^// < " tr an ^ ar s Burrau ofCwms Rctnelmt to 0 R,,LuVIftt Retiesunits.(h rptr)* R g l. M11) M O 199 f/e» Ualas Hoits.lat, Sta~rts) * (uil~uruadnioa of ) oss

# retirement function 

# Retirement Function of Clothes Washer Age 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Fraction Retired 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 Fraction Surviving 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 

# FractionRetired= Fractionoforiginal shipmentretiredasafunction ofage FractionSurviving= Fraction oforiginal shipmentsurvivingasafunctionofage
Using Fraction Surviving toRepresent Vintage ofDifferent Ages Calculate the %ofeach Vintage Groups Survivingand Retiring in theNext Year Vintage Age Next Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Surviving Rate by Vintage surv_vintage 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 Retiring Rate byVintage ret_vintage 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 SurvivingRateby Vintage = %ofeachvintagegroupsurvivinginthenextyear RetiringRateby Vintage = %ofeachvintagegroupretiringin thenextyear

Page 9

## retirement function

12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 Avg Life 0.139 0.222 0.250 0.222 0.139 0.028 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 14.084 0.861 0.639 0.389 0.167 0.028 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 0.861 0.742 0.609 0.429 0.168 0.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.139 0.258 0.391 0.571 0.832 1.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

Page 10

## Sheet2
SUMMARY OUTPUT RegressionStatistics MultipleR 0.870378085 RSquare 0.757558012 Adjusted R Square 0.744089012 StandardError 0.374147952 Observations 20 ANOVA df SS MS F significanceF Regression 1 7.873490513 7.8734905 56.244565 6.072E-07 Residual 18 2.519760424 0.1399867 Total 19 10.39325094 Coefficients Standard Error tStat P-value Lower95% Upper95%Lower95.0%Upper95.0% Intercept -210.8937084 28.8219227 -7.3171284 8.524E-07 -271.44637 -150.34105 -271.44637 -150.34105 XVariable 1 0.108811008 0.014508835 7.4996377 6.072E-07 0.0783291 0.139293 0.0783291 0.139293 SUMMARY OUTPUT RegressionStatistics MultipleR 0.706158897 RSquare 0.498660388 Adjusted RSquare 0.435992937 StandardError 0.177306552 Observations 10 ANOVA df SS MS F significanceF Regression 1 0.250156853 0.2501569 7.957247 0.0224641 Residual 8 0.251500907 0.0314376 Total 9 0.50165776 Coefficients Standard Error tStat P-value Lower95% Upper95% Lower95.0%Upper95.0% Intercept -103.7924527 38.87573133 -2.6698521 0.0283688 -193.44011 -14.144798 -193.44011 -14.144798 XVariable 1 0.055065455 0.019520809 2.8208593 0.0224641 0.0100504 0.1000805 0.0100504 0.1000805
Page 2

## SUMMARY OUTPUTFOR REGRESSING 40YEARS (1957-1996) RegressionStatistics Multiple R 0.9338 R Square 0.8719 Adjusted R Square 0.8685 Standard Error 0.3903 Observations 40 ANOVA df SS MS F SignificanceF Regression 1 39.40076921 39.400769 258.68247 1.51257E-18 Residual 38 5.787903621 0.1523133 Total 39 45.18867284 Coefficients Standard Error tStat P-value Lower95% Upper95% Lower 95.0%Upper95.0% Intercept -165.4575914 10.5659723 -15.659476 3.667E-18 -186.8472848 -144.0679 -186.84728 -144.0679 XVariable 1 0.085978279 0.005345708 16.083609 1.513E-18 0.075156458 0.0968001 0.0751565 0.0968001

SUMMARY OUTPUTFOR REGRESSING 30YEARS (1967-1996) RegressionStatistics Multiple R 0.8587 R Square 0.7374 Adjusted R Square 0.7280 Standard Error 0.4172 Observations 30 ANOVA df SS MS F SignificanceF Regression 1 13.67994879 13.679949 78.609381 1.2785E-09 Residual 28 4.872682655 0.1740244 Total 29 18.55263145 Coefficients StandardError tStat P-value Lower95% Upper95% Lower95.0%Upper 95.0% Intercept -149.6605347 17.43626328 -8.5832917 2.503E-09 -185.377141 -113.94393 -185.37714 -113.94393 X Variable 1 0.078017564 0.008799443 8.8661931 1.278E-09 0.059992701 0.0960424 0.0599927 0.0960424

$»