1

A Look Ahead

Key Social and Environmental Forecasts

Relevant to the National Park Service

prepared for

Discovery 2000

The National Park Service General Conference

September 11-15, 2000

St. Louis, Missouri

by

Gary E. Machlis1

Jennifer Rogers

Daniel Bray

Joshua Cinner

Brian Forist

September 2000

1

Dr. Machlis is Visiting Chief Social Scientist, National Park Service. Jennifer Rogers and Brian Forist

are Research Associates with the University of Idaho Cooperative Park Studies Unit. Daniel Bray and

Joshua Cinner were Graduate Student Interns with the NPS Social Science Program.
2
3

Preface

The National Park Service faces important challenges in the decade ahead. Beyond

the milestone of the new millenium, our nation faces unprecedented social,

technological, economic, environmental, and cultural change. And to the extent

that the NPS and the National Park System are part of the American experience,

these changes will profoundly influence our future. Managing the parks of the new

century will require accurate understanding of changes occurring within and

outside park boundaries. The ability to monitor contemporary trends, respond

effectively using science-based decision making, and strive to preserve natural and

cultural resources for the long-term, will be hallmarks of future park management.

As part of the Natural Resource Challenge, the NPS is increasing its ability to

monitor ecosystem and natural resource trends—from water and air quality to

exotic plants and animals. In addition, we are moving to create new tools to aid

park managers in navigating amid present and future trends.

A Look Ahead, prepared for Discovery 2000, the NPS General Conference in St.

Louis September 11-15, 2000, is one such tool. Created by the NPS Social Science

Program, this brief report highlights key social and environmental forecasts relevant

to the National Park Service. I encourage all participants of Discovery 2000, and all

employees of the NPS, to examine the forecasts presented in A Look Ahead, and

consider their implications for the challenges facing the NPS, and to our

extraordinary mission.

Michael Soukup

Associate Director

Natural Resource Stewardship and Science
4
5

Table of Contents

Chapter One – Demography 1

General Population 2

Households 3

Younger Population 4

Older Population 5

Ethnic Diversity 6

Life Expectancy 7

Disabled Population 8

Regional Population Growth 9

Gateway Community Growth 10

Chapter Two – Technology 11

Motor Vehicle Gasoline Consumption 12

Personal Vehicle Ownership 13

Recreational Vehicle Use 14

Global Wireless Communication Use 15

Email Use 16

Households with Internet Access 17

Global Positioning Systems 18

Air Travel 19

Chapter Three – Economics 21

Disposable Income 22

Pensions and Health Care Programs 23

US Workforce 24

Telecommuting 25

Employment (Select Industries) 26

Natural Resource-Related Employment 27

Federal Budget 28

Global Tourism 29

International Visitors to the US 31
6

Chapter Four – Environment 33

Global Land Use 34

Global Temperature Change 35

Global CO2

 Concentrations 36

Atmospheric Pollutants 37

Spent Nuclear Fuel 38

Wilderness and Undeveloped Land/Intensively Developed Areas 39

Recycling 40

Chapter Five – Culture 41

School Enrollment 42

Educational Level 43

Annual Leave Days 44

Reading 45

Home Shopping 46

Outdoor Recreation 47

Global Amusement and Theme Park Visitation 48
7

Introduction

A Look Ahead was produced by the NPS Social Science Program to assist park

managers by providing usable knowledge about the future. It includes information

on the current condition and future forecast for a number of social and

environmental indicators relevant to the National Park Service. These indicators

represent what H.W. Odum (father of the ecologists E.P. and H.T. Odum) called

“the basic facts.” Understanding these basic facts is essential to effective visioning of

the future, one of the goals of Discovery 2000.

The indicators are grouped into five general categories: Demography, Technology,

Economics, Environment, and Culture. These categories represent key “domains of

the future” — each is a critical component of society that is likely to change over

time. The domains often influence each other. For example, new technologies can

lead to new markets (economic change) and create ecosystem stresses

(environmental change).

Within each domain, several indicators are presented. For each indicator, data on

both the current condition (ranging from 1990-2000) and near future (ranging

from 2002-2030) are presented. The data included in this report are all available

through the internet, popular literature and books, government reports, and other

accessible sources.

Each indicator is presented on a separate page. For ease of use, each page is

organized as follows:

 the heading clearly identifies the general domain and specific indicator,

 a brief introduction describes the indicator, its current condition and forecast,

 data on the current condition and forecast are presented in a graph or series of

graphs,

 the trend over time (increase or decrease) is highlighted,

 the significance of the indicator to park management is suggested,

 “surprise scenarios,” or factors that could significantly alter the forecast, are

suggested, and

 the source of the data is referenced.
8

There are several limitations to this report. Most indicators were selected for the

US, and global indicators are noted in the heading. Only indicators with specific

and quantitative forecasts are included. While over 40 indicators are presented,

there are numerous other indicators that could have been chosen. While the

significance of the indicator to NPS park management is suggested, there are

undoubtedly other interpretations of how and why these indicators are relevant to

the NPS. The description of surprise scenarios is likely to be incomplete — it is the

nature of future uncertainties that they are often overlooked in the present.

Nevertheless, A Look Ahead may be a useful tool for NPS managers and partners. It

is a kind of “almanac of the future,” and can serve as a reference guide to trends that

may significantly influence the future of the National Park Service. And it reminds

us that in thinking about the future, the “basic facts” are both necessary and

important.
9

Chapter One

Demography
10

Demography - General Population

Total US Population

Trend

Significance

Surprise

Scenarios

Source

US Population +8.9%

As the US population increases, so will visitation to NPS units. This can place

pressure on resources, facilities, and services within and adjacent to parks.

Nationally, population growth will continue to add to the demands placed on

natural, cultural, and historical resources.

Societal norms regarding family size can influence the annual birth rate. Medical

technology and/or social policy can affect infant mortality, life expectancy, and

immigration.

Population Estimates Program, Population Division. (1999). United States Census

Bureau. http://www.census.gov/population/estimates/nation/intfile2-1.txt Population (millions)

2000 2010

275.3

299.8 300

200

0

100

The number of Americans is increasing. In 2000, there are 275.3 million individuals living in the US.

An increase of 8.9% is expected, as the projected US population will reach 299.8 million by 2010.
11

Demography - Households

Total US Households

Trend

Significance

Surprise

Scenarios

Source

Number of Households +12.3%

New households place increasing pressure on natural resources such as land,

timber, and water. These pressures may affect large-scale ecosystems. Since

visitors often come to parks in household groups, an increase in visitation is likely.

Social norms, environmental laws regulating development, and economic factors

such as inflation, interest rates, and wages can influence the number of new

households.

Population Projections Program, Population Division. (1998). United States Census

Bureau. Washington, DC.

Woods & Poole Economics, Inc. (1999). The Complete Economic and Demographic

Data Source. Washington, DC.

The number of households is an important indicator of the demand for land and other resources. In

1998, there were 101 million households in the US. This number is projected to increase 12.3% by

2010, to 113.4 million households.Number of Households (millions)

1998 2010

101

120 113.4

80

40

0
12

Demography - Younger Population

Number of Younger Americans % of Total US Population

Trend

Significance

Surprise

Scenarios

Source

Number of Americans Age 5-17 +1.0%

Number of Americans Age 18-29 +12.4%

Change in Percentage of US Population Age 5-17 -1.4%

Change in Percentage of US Population Age 18-29 +0.5%

Presence of children in visitor groups can influence activities of the entire group.

Young adults use backcountry areas of parks at higher rates than other age groups.

Children and young adults may be the focus of visitor services such as park

interpretive programs, recreational activities, facilities, and concessionaire

marketing.

Societal norms regarding family size may influence the annual birth rate.

Population Estimates Program, Population Division. (1999). United States Census

Bureau. http://www.census.gov/population/estimates/nation/intfile2-1.txt

Youth (age 5-17) and young adults (age 18-29) are important demographic groups. Both are growing in

number, but not in their proportion of the general population. In the near future the proportion of

youth in the general population is expected to decline slightly, and the proportion of young adults is

expected to remain relatively constant. Younger US Population (millions)

5-17 years old 18 -29 years old

51.5 52

44.5

50

60

40

20

0

2000

2010

age 5-17

 18.7%

age 18 -29

16.1%

2000

age 5-17

 17.3%

 age 18-29

 16.6%

2010
13

Demography - Older Population

The population of Americans age 55 years or older is expected to be the fastest growing demographic

group during the next decade. In 2000, they number 58.8 million individuals, or 21.4% of the total US

population. An increase of 27.7% is predicted to occur by 2010, when the older population is projected

to reach 75.1 million. Older Americans will then represent 25.1% of the total US population, an

increase of 3.7% from 2000.

Number of Older Americans % of Total US Population

Trend

Significance

Surprise

Scenarios

Source

Number of Older Americans +27.7%

Change in Percentage of US Population +3.7%

Americans 55 years old or older may have more leisure time and financial stability

than other age groups. Many are park enthusiasts. They have unique recreational

behavior and consumer spending patterns that often require special attention.

With the advancement of medical technologies and improvement in health care,

the population of Americans age 55 or older may grow higher than projected.

National Population Projections. (2000). United States Census Bureau http://

www.census.gov/population/www/projections/natsum.html

2000 2010

US Population 55+ (millions)

0

20

40

60

80 75.1

58.8

21.4%

2000

25.1%

2010

2000

2010
14

Demography - Ethnic Diversity

The five major race or ethnic groups in the US will experience varying degrees of population growth in

the coming decade. Asian and Pacific Islanders will see the greatest degree of change, increasing 40.7%

from 10.8 million in 1999 to a projected 15.2 million in 2010. The White (non-Hispanic) population

will experience the smallest degree of change, increasing 7.6% from 224.6 million in 1999 to 241.7

million in 2010. The Hispanic population will become the largest minority group.

Trend

Significance

Surprise

Scenarios

Source

White +7.6% Asian and Pacific Islander +40.7%

Black +14.7% Native American +21.7%

Hispanic +39.3%

Racial or ethnic groups have unique park visitation rates and may engage in

different recreational activities. Individual parks attract minority visitation at

different rates. Equal opportunity in hiring will alter the mix of NPS employees.

Social norms and changes in US immigration policy may influence immigration

and minority population growth.

Population Projections Program, Population Division. (1999). United States Census

Bureau. http://www.census.gov/population/projections/nation/summary/np-t2.txt

0

50

100

150

200

250

Population (millions)

224.6

241.7

34.8 39.9 31.3

43.6

10.8 15.2

2.3 2.8

1999

2010

White Black Hispanic Asian and 

Pacific Islander

Native 

American
15

Demography - Life Expectancy

In 2000, average life expectancy for a male in the US is 73.2 years; 80.2 years for a female. By 2010, life

expectancy is projected to be 74.5 years for males and 81.3 years for females, an increase of 1.8% and

1.4% respectively.

Life Expectancy in the US

Trend

Significance

Surprise

Scenarios

Source

Males +1.8%

Females +1.4%

Longer life expectancy will increase the size and relative proportion of America’s

older population. This may increase overall visitation to units of the National

Park System. This growth may also influence demand for specialized activities,

facilities, and visitor services within the National Park System.

Developments in health care and medical technology may extend average life

expectancy. Healthier and more active lifestyles may also contribute to longer life

expectancy.

Pollock, Sean R. (ed.). (1995). Statistical Forecasts of the United States. New York:

Gale Research Inc. Years

Males Females

73.2 74.5

80.2 81.3

0

100

80

60

40

20

2000

2010
16

Demography - Disabled Population

Number of Disabled Americans % of Total US Population

Trend Number of People with Disabilities +1.5 million

Percent Change in US Population +0.3%

Significance As the population of disabled Americans increases, the number of disabled visitors

to NPS units is also likely to increase. Disabled visitors may require special access

to facilities and may participate in unique recreational activities. As more disabled

Americans enter the NPS workforce, institutional infrastructure and attitudes may

likely change.

Surprise

Scenarios

Research and development in medical technology may decrease the number of

disabled visitors, and generally increase quality of life for disabled citizens.

Source Beck, John C. & Stuck, Andrea. (1996). Journal of the American Medical Association,

276 (21), 1756.

0

2

4

6

4.1

5.6

2000 2020

People Unable to Perform Activities 

of Daily Living (millions)

1.4%

2000

1.7%

2020

Disabled persons have a physical or mental impairment that significantly restricts their ability to perform

typical activities of daily living. In 2000, there are 4.1 million disabled Americans. The number of

disabled Americans is projected to increase 36.6% to 5.6 million by 2020.
17

Demography - Regional Population Growth

The seven NPS regions will experience varying population growth rates over the next decade. The

population of the Pacific West Region is projected to have the greatest growth, increasing 15.2% by

2010. The Northeast Region is projected to experience the least growth, as its population increases 3.4%

by 2010.

Population Growth Within NPS Regions

Trend

Significance

Surprise

Scenarios

Source

Alaska +13.8% Northeast +3.4%

Intermountain +13.5% Pacific West +15.2%

Midwest +3.9% Southeast +10.2%

National Capital +7.7%

Regional population growth can affect resource use within and adjacent to parks,

increase demand for park access, and cause environmental pressures on large-scale

ecosystems.

Regional economic conditions can affect migration patterns. Regional

populations may also be influenced by higher-than-projected migration of older

Americans to more desirable retirement locations.

Total Population and Net Change for States. (2000, July). United States Census

Bureau. http://www.census.gov/population/www/projections/popproj.html

2000

2010

0

20

40

60

80

Alaska Intermountain

Midwest National 

Capital

Northeast Pacific

West

Southeast

.65 .74

37.9

43

66.1 68.7

.52 .56

67.3 69.6

46.2

53.2 56

61.7

Population (millions)
18

Demography - Gateway Community Growth

Gateway communities adjacent to units of the National Park System provide services and facilities for

park visitors. Examples illustrate that population growth within counties containing NPS units may be

significantly higher than their respective state’s population growth.

Gateway Community Growth

Trend

Significance

Surprise

Scenarios

Source

County Population Growth

Larimer Co. +23.4%

Hancock Co. +12.5%

Adams Co. +8.9%

State Population Growth

Colorado +13.8%

Maine +7.8%

Pennsylvania +1.4%

Local population growth can influence resource use, demand for outdoor

recreation, and the environmental quality of both parks and the regional

ecosystems.

Telecommuting may play an increasing role in the economic viability of living in

gateway communities. As urban populations increase, more people may seek a

higher quality of life and migrate to gateway communities.

Estes Valley Plan. Chapter 2. (2000, July). http://www.co.larimer.co.us/depts/planni/

planning/estes_valley_plan/estes_valley_plan_toc.htm

Maine State Planning Office. (1999). http://janus.state.me.us/spo/economic/

economic.htm

Pennsylvania State Data Center. (2000). http://pasdc.hbg.psu.edu/pasdc/

Data_&_Information/data_by_type/population_demographics.html

Population (thousands)

97 89.1

56.5 50.2

311

252

2000

2010

1998

Larimer Co., CO

(Rocky Mountain NP)

Hancock Co., ME

(Acadia NP)

Adams Co., PA

(Gettysburg NMP)

400

300

200

100

0
19

Chapter Two

Technology
20

Technology - Motor Vehicle Gasoline Consumption

Annual Motor Vehicle Gasoline Consumption

Trend Motor Vehicle Gasoline Consumption +5.0%

Significance Increasing oil prices may decrease automobile fuel consumption, and fuel

consumption affects short-term visitation to the national parks. As the cost of

travel influences recreational behavior, long distance travel may not be

economically practical for certain user groups. Demand for local recreational

opportunities that involve less travel may increase around the country. Use of

urban area units of the National Park System may increase.

Surprise

Scenarios

Alternative automotive fuels may decrease our dependency on gasoline and diesel

fuels. Increased engine efficiency can contribute to less fuel consumption and

better gas mileage. Shortages in motor vehicle gasoline may be caused by limited

supply or international political events.

Source Pollock, Sean R. (ed.). (1995). Statistical Forecasts of the United States. New York:

Gale Research Inc.

0

5

10

15

20

25

15.37 16.14

BTUs Per Year (quadrillions)

2000

2010

2000 2010

In 2000, annual consumption of motor vehicle gasoline in the US was measured at 15.37 quadrillion

British Thermal Units (BTUs). By 2010, the consumption will have increased a projected 5%, to 16.14

quadrillion BTUs.
21

Technology - Personal Vehicle Ownership

The number of automobiles owned in the US continues to increase. In 2000, there are 161.5 million

automobiles and 39.6 million light trucks/SUVs owned by the public. Over the next decade, these

numbers will increase to 184.7 million and 44.6 million respectively, as automobile ownership increases

14.4% and light truck/SUV ownership increases 12.6% by 2010.

Personal Vehicles Owned in the US

Trend Number of Automobiles +14.4%

Number of Light Trucks/SUVs +12.6%

Significance Increased personal vehicle ownership adds to the existing challenge to

accommodate vehicles in units of the National Park System. Automobile

ownership also contributes to sprawl, impacting gateway communities and parks

near suburban areas.

Surprise

Scenarios

New technologies, changes in disposable income, and consumer interest rates may

alter affordability of personal vehicles.

Source Pollock, Sean R. (ed.). (1995). Statistical Forecasts of the United States. New York:

Gale Research Inc.

0

50

100

150

200

161.5

184.7

39.6 44.6

Light Trucks/

SUVs

Automobiles

Number of Vehicles (millions)

2000

2010
22

Technology - Recreational Vehicle Use

Recreational vehicles (RVs) are increasingly common on America’s highways and in NPS units.

Currently, 9.3 million motorhomes, travel trailers, fifth-wheels, campers, folding camping trailers, and

van conversions are on the road. The percentage of households in the US that owned an RV was 2.3%

in 1999. Over the next ten years, the number of RVs and proportion of households with an RV should

rise only moderately. By 2010, an increase of 0.8% in the number of RVs is projected, with RV

ownership to include 3.1% of all households.

US Households That Own an RV

Trend Percentage of US Households that Own an RV +0.8%

Significance Development of RV services such as campsites, parking, dump stations, water and

electrical hookups, and accessible roads can impact park annual budgets and

resources. Large, slower vehicles can add to traffic congestion within parks.

Surprise

Scenarios

Regulations limiting access of large personal vehicles may decrease RV usage.

New technologies may lower RV costs and increase their fuel efficiency. Changes

in demographics (aging population) may increase purchases of RVs.

Source University of Michigan Survey Research Center Study for the Recreational

Vehicle Industry Association. (1998). Recreational Vehicle Industry Association.

Ann Arbor, MI: University of Michigan, Ann Arbor.

2.3%

2000

3.1%

2010
23

Technology - Global Wireless Communication Use

Wireless technology has changed the way people around the globe communicate. For 1999, worldwide

use of wireless services was estimated at 100 million users. Advancements in technologies and adoption

of wireless communication are projected to increase use 1400% to 1500 million individuals by the year

2010.

Global Wireless Communication Users

Trend Number of People Using Wireless Communication +1400%

Significance Wireless technology can affect the daily operations of individual park units.

Search and rescue communications, public accessibility to park information, and

facilities management may be impacted by increased use of wireless systems.

Increased dependency may also change the way visitors behave while recreating in

the backcountry, as cellular phones become standard emergency equipment.

Proposals to install wireless communication infrastructure in or adjacent to parks

will increase.

Surprise

Scenarios

Occurrence of health problems concerning microwave radiation may lead to new

regulations and change user behavior. New technology may make wireless

communication more accessible.

Source The Regulatory Perspective. (2000). Bermuda Telephone Company Limited. http://

www.btc.bm

0

300

600

900

1200

1500

People Using Wireless 

Communication (millions)

100

1,500

1999 2010
24

Technology - Email Use

More people are relying on the use of computers and internet services to exchange information. The

worldwide number of email accounts in 1997 was 93.7 million. A 99.6% increase is projected, as the

number of accounts reaches 187 million by 2014.

Trend

Significance

Surprise

Scenarios

Source

Number of Email Accounts Worldwide +99.6%

Public participation in NPS decision making could increase as more people

provide input on management decisions via email. The electronic medium may

facilitate meaningful communication regarding park visitor concerns and

information inquiries, as well as communication within the agency.

Increased frequency of internet use may be limited by insufficient support services.

Increased concerns about personal privacy may decrease email traffic.

Kentworth, Ann C. (1998). What Trends Tell. Association Management, 50 (i13)

30.

Worldwide Email Accounts

0

50

100

150

200

93.7

187

Email Accounts (millions)

1997 2014
25

Technology - Households with Internet Access

US Households On-Line

Trend

Significance

Number of US Households On-Line +48.9%

The internet changes the manner in which the public can access information.

Park regulations, facilities, visitor services information, and resource interpretation

can be available to visitors before their actual arrival to the park. In addition, the

internet can become a significant tool in public participation and collaborative

decision-making.

Surprise

Scenarios

New web technology, taxation policy, and competitive computer pricing may slow

or speed the expansion of households with internet access.

Source Mattis, Michael. (1999). Your Wireless Future. Business 2.0, 78-115.

0

20

40

60

80

45

67

US Households On-Line (millions)

1999 2005

The internet is increasingly accessible from home. More homes with access are using on-line capabilities

to purchase goods, research products, and access public information. In 1999, 45 million households

were on-line nationwide. By 2005, this is expected to increase 48.9% to 67 million households.
26

Technology - Global Positioning Systems

Global positioning systems (GPS) are becoming standard equipment in automobiles, boats and aircraft,

and as personal hand-held units. Annual sales around the globe were $8 billion in 2000. Sales are

estimated to reach $16 billion by 2003. Worldwide sales of GPS units are projected to increase 100%

over the next three years.

Worldwide GPS Sales

Trend Worldwide GPS sales +100%

Significance GPS units can become essential tools for some forms of outdoor recreation.

Dependence on GPS may lead to an increase in search and rescue activities as

wilderness and backcountry users put trust in technology. GPS may also assist

with park-related scientific research and resource management activities.

Surprise

Scenarios

Additional satellites may enable extended coverage and accuracy to GPS receivers.

Development of smaller units may include GPS as a feature in the production of

personal vehicles and outdoor equipment, further accelerating use of this

technology.

Source Mattis, Michael. (1999). Your Wireless Future. Business 2.0, 78-115.

0

5

10

15

$20

8

16

2000 2003

Worldwide GPS Sales (billions of dollars)
27

Technology - Air Travel

Air transportation has developed into an affordable and widely available means of travel. 487 billion

revenue passenger miles were flown in 2000. An increase of 37.4% is expected over ten years, as 669

billion revenue passenger miles are projected to be flown in 2010.

Air Travel

Trend Air Travel +37.4%

Significance Air travel allows for vacations to be taken far from home. Visits to NPS units

near main air hubs (cities with major airports) will likely increase. Air travelers

visiting parks may require alternative public transportation systems. Issues of

overflights may arise as controversial concerns.

Surprise

Scenarios

Changes in economic conditions, the price of jet fuel, airline competition, and

aviation policies can alter air travel patterns.

Source Pollock, Sean R. (ed.). (1995). Statistical Forecasts of the United States. New York:

Gale Research Inc.

0

200

400

600

800

487

669

Billion Revenue Passenger Miles

2000 2010
28
29

Chapter Three

Economics
30

Economics - Disposable Income

Personal Disposable Income

Trend

Significance

Per Capita Disposable Income +17.2%

Increases in disposable income can influence visitation to the National Park

System by making travel to parks more affordable. Willingness to pay for

entrance fees, permits, and other services may increase as individuals retain more

income for personal use.

Surprise

Scenarios

Changes in national economy, surges in unemployment, revisions in tax policy,

and inflation can alter disposable income projections.

Source Personal Income 1978, 1988, 1998, and Projected 2008. (1998). Bureau of Labor

Statistics. http://www.bls.gov/empmdio1.htm

1998 2008

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

$25,000

19,800

23,200

Per Capita Personal Disposable Income

 in Constant 1992 Dollars

Disposable income is defined as total personal income minus federal, state, and local taxes. Average

annual disposable income per capita was $19,800 in 1998. By 2008, such income is projected to rise

17.2%; $23,200 per capita.
31

Economics - Pensions and Health Care Programs

Percent of US Budget Spent on Pensions and Health Care Programs

Trend Percent of US Budget Spent on Pensions and Health Care Programs +3.8%

Significance Federal budget priorities will become redefined to meet the changing needs of

America’s rapidly growing senior population. As entitlements reflect a higher

proportion of the federal budget, discretionary spending on other programs, such

as the NPS, may become more difficult. Pensions and health care programs

directly impact quality of life for seniors, an important NPS visitor group.

Surprise

Scenarios

Changes in social security and medicare policies could significantly change the

proportion of the federal budget spent on these entitlements. Unexpected

advances in medical technologies could increase life span and the need for

extended federal entitlements.

Source Pollock, Sean R. (ed.). (1995). Statistical Forecasts of the United States. New York:

Gale Research Inc.

40.8%

2000

44.6%

2010

As America’s population ages, and advancements in medical technologies continue, people will require

increasing amounts of pension and health care assistance. In 2000, the federal government is spending

40.8% of the budget on pensions and health care programs. By 2010, this will increase 3.8%, to

account for 44.6% of the US budget.
32

Economics - US Workforce

US Workforce by Select Age Group

Trend Age 16-24 +15.1%

Age 25-54 +5.5%

Age 55-64 +47.4%

Significance The relative size of a workforce can be an indicator of economic growth and

structural changes in the economy. Increases within specific age categories may

reflect changes in their relative spending power, including spending for leisure,

recreation, and visiting parks.

Surprise

Scenarios

Changes in workforce participation can affect the composition of the job market.

Fluctuations in the economy may have impact on employment opportunities.

Developments in specific industrial sectors could force certain job skills to become

obsolete, thus reducing the need for workers.

Source 1998-2008 Employment Projections. (1999). Bureau of Labor Statistics. http://

stats.bls.gov/emphome.htm

0

40

80

120

21.9 25.2

98.7

104.1

17.1

25.2

Age 16-24 Age 25-54 Age 55-64

US Workers (millions)

1998

2008

America’s workforce is projected to grow during the next decade. By 2008, the number of workers in the

16-24, 25-54, and 55-64 age groups, will increase 15.1%, 5.5%, and 47.4% respectively.
33

Economics - Telecommuting

Percent of the US Workforce Working at Home

Trend Percent of the US Workforce Working at Home +15%

Significance The ability to work at home may allow more people to move closer to parks.

Freedom in work schedules may also allow more leisure time for recreational

activities.

Surprise

Scenarios

Changes in remote communication technology, real estate prices, urban quality of

life, and commuting costs will influence telecommuting rates.

Source Whitenack, Amiee. (2000). Experience, 54-58.

2000

5%

2010

20%

A growing percentage of the US workforce is projected to work from home. In 2000, 5% of the US

workforce work at home. By 2010, 20% of the US workforce is projected to work at home, a 15%

increase.
34

Economics - Employment (Select Industries)

During the coming decade, employment in service and government will significantly increase—a 17.3%

increase for service and 9.1% increase for government. Employment in manufacturing and natural

resources will remain stable.

Employment by Select Industries

Trend

Significance

Surprise

Scenarios

Source

Manufacturing -0.5%

Service +17.3%

Natural Resources +2.3%

Government +9.1%

Increases in service and government employment reflect structural changes in the

US economy. Skilled workers will be attracted to these growth areas, competing

with natural resource-related employment. The NPS may be impacted by both

trends, as natural resource-related jobs remain relatively constant.

New technologies may alter the service economy and speed the decline of

manufacturing; government budgets and policies can alter government staffing

levels.

1998-2008 Employment Projections. (1999). Bureau of Labor Statistics. http://

stats.bls.gov/emphome.htm

0

10

20

30

18.7 18.6

22.5

26.4

4.4 4.5

19.8

21.6

Manufacturing Service Natural

Resources

Government

Employment (millions)

1998

2008
35

Economics - Natural Resource-Related Employment

While overall, natural resource-related employment is expected to remain stable, select resource

occupations will experience significant change. Farming, fishing, and mining will decline significantly;

logging will decline modestly.

Employment by Select Natural Resource Occupations

Trend

Significance

Surprise

Scenarios

Source

Farming -13.2%

Fishing -22.7%

Mining -18.9%

Logging -2.0%

Decline in these traditional industries will exacerbate environmental controversies

in and around parks, as industries strive to maintain employment levels. Decline

in employment may signal an increase in technology replacing labor, as

production levels (and pressures on the parks) remain constant or increase.

New technologies, additional environmental regulations, deteriorating resource

conditions/supplies, and global trade patterns can alter labor demands in these

fields.

Occupation Search. (2000, July). Bureau of Labor Statistics. http://stats.bls.gov/

asp/oep/nioem/empiohm.asp

1998

2008

0

300

600

900

1200

1500

1,307

1,135

39.7 30.7 22.7 18.4 55.8 54.7

Farming Fishing Mining Logging

Jobs (thousands)
36

Economics - Federal Budget

The prosperity of the 1990s, combined with fiscal policy, has led to a federal budget surplus. In 2000,

the budget surplus is approximately $179 billion. By 2010, the surplus is projected to increase 293.3%

to $704 billion.

US Budget Surplus

Trend Budget Surplus +293.3%

Significance An increased budget surplus may provide more funding opportunities for the

NPS and other resource management agencies. Increased spending on

environmental concerns may create a window for the adoption of a more

ecosystem-based approach to environmental management.

Surprise

Scenarios

Domestic and international stock market volatility, changes in economic policies,

new defense needs, and free trade agreements could affect the projected budget

surplus.

Source Current Budget Projections. (1999). Congressional Budget Office. http://

www.cbo.gov

2000 2010

Budget Surplus (billions of dollars)

0

200

400

600

$800

179

704
37

Economics - Global Tourism

Worldwide, tourism has become a significant industry. Annual global revenue in 1995 was estimated to

be $3.4 trillion, and projected to increase over 100% by 2005. In addition, tourism arrivals and jobs are

expected to have large increases (see following page).

Worldwide Annual Revenue Generated by Tourism

Trend Global Revenue Generated by Tourism +111.8%

Worldwide Jobs Created by Tourism +50.0%

Worldwide International Tourism Arrivals +42.5%

Significance Increased global tourism will lead to larger numbers of foreign visitors to US

parks, and increased pressure on visitor services in the parks of other countries.

Surprise

Scenarios

Economic and political conditions of nations directly impact global touism. War,

terrorism, and economic instability can alter forecasts.

Source World Travel and Tourism Council. (1995). Viewpoint, 1 (2).

0

2

4

6

$8

1995 2005

Revenue Generated by Tourism

(trillions of dollars)

3.4

7.2
38

Economics - Global Tourism (cont.)

Worldwide Jobs Created by Tourism

Worldwide International Tourism Arrivals

Source Fennel, D. A. (1999). Ecotourism: An Introduction. World Tourism

Organization. Routledge, NY.

Wetzstein, Cheryl. (2000). More Play, Less Work Foreseen for Americans. Insight

on the News, 16 (i6) 32.

0

100

200

300

200

300

2000 2009

Jobs Generated by Tourism (millions)

0

200

400

600

800

1000

702

1,000

Number of Tourist Arrivals 

(millions)

2000 2010
39

Economics - International Visitors to the US

The United States attracts a significant number of world travelers. International visitors to the US are

increasing rapidly. 51.5 million international tourists visited the US in 2000. A 98.1% increase is

expected, as projections estimate 102 million international visitors in 2020.

Trend International Visitors to US +98.1%

Significance Foreign visitation accounts for an increasing portion of people visiting the

National Park System. Specific parks have a high percentage of international

visitors. Increased international tourism to the US will accelerate both trends.

Accomodating international visitors will require changes in interpretive media and

information services.

Surprise

Scenarios

Additional services provided for foreign travelers could change international

visitation. Foreign economic stability may permit increased visitation to the US.

International visitation can be affected by the foreign exchange rate, airline prices,

special events (such as the Olympic Games), global and regional politics, and the

general condition of the global economy.

Source Molitor, Graham T. (2000). Dawn of the Leisure Era. Association Management, 52

(i2) 85.

Commerce News. (2000, May). Department of Commerce. http://

www.ita.doc.gov/media/travel516.htm

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

51.5

102

2000 2020

International Visitors (millions)

International Visitors to US
40
41

Chapter Four

Environment
42

Environment - Global Land Use

Rapid population growth and the associated resource demands are altering global land use practices.

Between 1990 and 2010, global cropland, irrigated land, and pasture/rangeland are projected to increase

5.0%, 16.9%, and 4.1% respectively. Forest cover is projected to decline 7.3% in the same time period.

Changes in Global Land Use

Trend Pasture/Range Land +4.1%

Forest -7.3%

Cropland +5.0%

Irrigated Land +16.9%

Significance The status of designated wilderness and other protected areas may be

compromised to meet other land use needs. The expansion of certain land use

practices throughout the world can affect species habitat within parks and increase

threats to park ecosystems.

Surprise

Scenarios

Advances in technology may decrease the detrimental effect caused by some

current land use practices. Improved production per hectare may decrease the

demand for more land area. Changes in land ethics may influence decisions made

about land resources.

Source Postel, S. (1994). Carrying Capacity: Earth’s Bottom Line. State of the World.

W.W. Norton & Company, Inc. New York, NY.

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

1,444 1,516

237 277

Pasture/Range Cropland Irrigated Land Land

Forest

3,4023,540 3,413

3,165 1990

2010

Hectares (millions)
43

Environment - Global Temperature Change

The buildup of greenhouse gasses – primarily carbon dioxide – has caused a gradual increase in the

global temperature. Between 1990 and 2000, a global mean temperature change of 0.5 degrees Celsius

occurred. During the period of 2000-2010, the global mean temperature is projected to increase an

additional 0.3 degrees Celsius, as the total mean temperature change reaches 0.8 degrees Celsius.

Global Temperature Change

Trend Global Mean Temperature Change +0.3 degrees Celsius

Significance Further increases in global temperature can alter rainfall patterns, vegetation

types, habitat suitablity, species’ home ranges, and the spread of invasive, nonnative species within and adjacent to parks.

Surprise

Scenarios

Global climatic patterns are highly variable. Innovations in technology and

significant changes in international environmental policies may decrease

greenhouse gas production and reduce global temperature increases to smaller

amounts.

Source President’s Council on Sustainable Development. Chapter 7. (2000, July). http://

www.whitehouse.gov/PCSD/Publications/TF_Reports/amer-chp7.html

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1990 2000 2010

Global Mean Temperature Change ( C)
44

Environment - Global CO2 Concentrations

High CO2 concentrations from combustion of fossil fuels is thought to be a primary cause of global

warming. In 2000, global concentration of carbon dioxide was 360 parts per million. An increase of

11.1% is projected to occur as concentrations reach 400 parts per million in 2010.

Global CO2 Concentrations

Trend

Significance

Global CO2 Concentrations +11.1%

Increasing CO2

 concentrations may have an influence on global temperature and

precipitation. Changes in rainfall can significantly alter large-scale ecosystems,

including parks, and modify wildlife species habitats, ranges, migration patterns,

and population levels.

Surprise

Scenarios

Innovations in technology and significant changes in international environmental

policies may decrease CO2 production.

Source Pollock, Sean R. (ed.). (1995). Statistical Forecasts of the United States. New York:

Gale Research Inc.

0

100

200

300

400

360

400

2000 2010

CO2 Concentration (parts per million)
45

Environment - Atmospheric Pollutants

Human activities, such as industry and transportation, release carbon monoxide, sulfur, and nitrogen

oxides into the atmosphere. Carbon monoxide (CO) and nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions in the US are

projected to increase 15.1% and 14% respectively, between 2000 and 2010. Sulfur (S) emissions are

projected to decrease 20.7% during the same time period.

Annual CO Emissions Annual S and NOx Emissions

Trend Annual CO Emissions +15.1%

Annual S Emissions -20.7%

Annual NOx Emissions +14.0%

Significance Increased pollutants can affect the air quality and the viewsheds of parks. This, in

turn, can affect park visitation rates and recreational activities. Atmospheric

pollution can directly damage historic structures and monuments.

Surprise

Scenarios

Significant changes in industrial techniques, pollution abatement technologies,

economic conditions, and environmental policies can influence the amount of

pollutants released into the atmosphere.

Source Annual Energy Outlook 1997. (1997). US Energy Information Administration.

Washington, DC.

0

500

1000

1500

2000

1,552

1,787

2000 2010

Annual CO Emissions

(millions of metric tons)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

S NOx

Annual Emissions (millions metric of tons)

11.6

9.2

5.0

5.7

2000

2010
46

Environment - Spent Nuclear Fuel

Nuclear fuel provides a portion of US energy resources; spent nuclear fuel as a waste by-product is

increasing. In 1997 there were 78,800 metric tons of spent uranium. By 2010, this is projected to

increase 146.7%, to 194,400 metric tons.

Cumulative Spent Nuclear Fuel, Uranium

Trend

Significance

Surprise

Scenarios

Source

Spent Nuclear Fuel +146.7%

Disposal of spent fuel materials is complex and controversial. Few areas may be

determined suitable and publicly acceptable for long term containment of nuclear

waste. Alternatives proposed for storage may include sites within or near parks.

New technologies in waste disposal may lessen demand for highly secure disposal

sites. Nuclear accidents may alter public opinion about siting decisions.

Pollock, Sean R. (ed.). (1995). Statistical Forecasts of the United States. New York:

Gale Research Inc.

0

50

100

150

200

78.8

194.4

1997 2010

 Uranium (thousands of metric tons)
47

Environment - Wilderness and Undeveloped Land/

Intensively Developed Areas

Over the next decade, there will be dramatic changes in the American landscape. The amount of acreage

in wilderness/extensive roadless areas and undeveloped areas near roads will decrease, while the amount

of acreage in intensively developed areas will increase.

Changes in Wilderness and Undeveloped Land/Intensively Developed Areas

Trend Wilderness and Other Extensive Roadless Areas -6%

Undeveloped Areas Near Roads -8%

Intensively Developed Land Sites +7%

Intensively Developed Water Sites +11%

Significance A decrease in wilderness and undeveloped land is likely to increase pressures on

existing parks with similar values. Intense development on land adjacent to parks

will pose significant management challenges to the parks.

Surprise

Scenarios

Technological advances in fields such as resource extraction and bioprospecting

may alter our need to exploit resources in remote areas. Significant

environmental regulations may restrict development.

Source Pollock, Sean R. (ed.). (1995). Statistical Forecasts of the United States. New York:

Gale Research Inc.

Percentage Change from 1987 Baseline

Wilderness/

Other Extensive 

Roadless Areas Undeveloped 

Areas Near Roads

Intensively 

Developed 

Land Sites

Intensively 

Developed

Water Sites

-9 -15 -12 -20

+8

+15

+12

+23

2000

2010

30

20

10

0

-10

-20
48

Environment - Recycling

Recycling can help reduce virgin material consumption and environmental pollution. In 1996, recycling

diverted 57 million tons of material away from landfills and incinerators. A 45.6% increase in recycled

material is projected as 83 million tons of material will be diverted from landfills in 2005.

Recycled Material

Trend Material Diverted from Landfills +45.6%

Significance Public participation in recycling efforts may result in less material consumption

and littering, and more demand for recycling services. Parks will be expected to

have recycling facilities available and convenient. Demand for recycled products

at parks will likely increase.

Surprise

Scenarios

Development in recycling technologies may further diminish the need for

landfills. Future strategies, such as “garbage mining” may be encouraged as buried

materials are sought out for their recycled value. Development of economically

viable recycling technologies and changes in societal values may influence

recycling participation.

Source Whitehouse Task Force on Recycling. (1998). Recycling for the Future.

Washington, DC.

0

20

40

60

80

100

57

83

Material Diverted from Landfills

(millions of tons)

1996 2005
49

Chapter Five

Culture
50

Culture - School Enrollment

The number of students enrolled in US schools is projected to increase. Between the 1996-1997 and

2007-2008 school years, enrollment in kindergarten through the twelfth grade (K-12) and in higher

education programs will increase 4% and 8.1% respectively.

Enrollment in US Schools

Trend Enrollment in K-12 +4.0%

Enrollment in Institutions of Higher Education +8.1%

Significance Enrollment in learning institutions may influence the use of national park sites,

as demand for services by educational groups changes. The increase in

enrollment in higher education programs may provide the NPS with a larger

pool from which to select interns and seasonal employees. Enrollment in

learning institutions may influence the level of public participation in resource

decision-making, recreational behavior, and public opinion on environmental

issues.

Surprise

Scenarios

Significant changes in micro and macro economic factors, tuition costs, and

educational policies could influence higher education enrollment. Unexpected

demographic changes (such as increased birthrates) could alter projections of K-12

enrollment.

Source Projections of Education Statistics to 2008. (1998). National Center for

Educational Statistics. http://nces.ed.gov/edstats

0

20

40

60

52.1 54.2

14.8 16

K-12 Higher Education

Total Enrollment (millions)

1996-7

2007-8
51

Culture - Educational Level

The number of Americans attaining educational degrees is projected to increase. Between the 1996-

1997 and the 2007-2008 school years, the annual number of high school degrees, bachelor’s degrees, and

master’s degrees is projected to increase 20.2%, 8.9%, and 10.9% respectively.

Number of Graduates in the US by Degree

Trend

Significance

Surprise

Scenarios

Source

High School +20.2%

Bachelor’s +8.9%

Master’s +10.9%

Education level is an important consideration in such park management activities

as marketing, public participation processes, and the design of interpretive

information and outreach programs. Changes in average education level of the

adult population can influence the pool of potential NPS employees.

Changes in job skill requirements may alter demand for advanced training and

further education. Job opportunities may influence personal decisions to pursue

additional degrees. Changes in how students learn can impact their readiness to

enroll in advanced programs. Tax and education policies may alter the

affordability of higher education.

Projections of Education Statistics to 2008. (1998). National Center for

Educational Statistics. http://nces.ed.gov/edstats

0

1000

2000

3000

3500

2,573

3,093

1,1661,270

402 446

High School Bachelor's Master's

Annual Graduations (thousands)

1996-7

2007-8
52

Culture - Annual Leave Days

Average Number of Annual Leave Days Taken by US Workers

Trend Number of Annual Leave Days +194.1%

Significance As workers are granted more personal leave time by employers, visitation to

national park sites may increase. Changes in the duration and frequency of visits

to parks can affect resources, services, and facilities. Leave taken by NPS

employees will impact operations.

Surprise

Scenarios

Changes in the economy (e.g., Gross Domestic Product, Consumer Price Index,

inflation, unemployment), worker productivity, and societal values could

influence the number of annual leave days taken by US workers.

Source Kentworth, Ann C. (1998). What Trends Tell. Association Management, 50 (i13)

30.

0

10

20

30

10.2

30

Annual Leave (days)

2000 2030

Many employers are increasing the number of annual leave days they provide workers for personal

absence. In 2000, the average number of days of annual leave taken by US workers is estimated to be

10.2 days. By 2030, workers are expected to take an average of 30 days of annual leave, accounting for a

194.1% increase.
53

Culture - Reading

Annual spending on consumer books is projected to increase significantly. The $2.6 billion spent on

children’s books in 1999 will increase 19.2% to $3.1 billion in 2002. The $16.9 billion spent on all

consumer books in 1998 will increase 33.1% to $22.5 billion in 2003.

Annual Spending on Consumer Books

Trend Spending on all Consumer Books +33.1%

Sales of Children’s Books +19.2%

Significance Book sales can be an indication of how Americans are educating themselves.

Increased book reading can broaden public knowledge in many areas of interest.

Increased book purchasing may influence park management decisions regarding

information delivery and support of cooperating associations (bookstores).

Surprise

Scenarios

Changes in economic conditions and perceptions toward e-books could influence

consumer spending patterns on traditional books.

Source Milliot, Jim. (1998). Report Sees Moderate Growth for Consumer Books. http://

www.publishersweekly.com/articles/19991101_82423.asp

Milliot, Jim. (1999). Good Times Returning for Children’s Books? http://

www.publishersweekly.com/articles/1990222_70840.asp

0

10

20

$25

16.9

22.5

2.6 3.1

All Books Children's Books

Sales (billions of dollars)

1999

1998

2002

2003
54

Culture - Home Shopping

Home shopping using both catalogs and the internet is projected to increase. Catalog orders in 1998

generated $85.2 billion in sales. An increase of 46.8% is expected as $125.1 billion in sales is projected

in 2004. In 1999, orders over the internet reached $5.9 billion in sales. Growth is expected to increase

1330.5% as 2004 projections put internet sales at $84.4 billion.

Annual Sales Made by Catalog and the Internet

Trend Catalog Sales +46.8%

Internet Sales +1330.5%

Significance The convenience of home shopping has transformed the way Americans conduct

business. Increased use of home shopping may influence ways in which the NPS

and its partners provide information, manage reservations, and generate sales.

Surprise

Scenarios

Changes in disposable personal income, Gross Domestic Product, internet

security, and product delivery could influence home shopping patterns.

Source The Direct Marketing Association. (1999). American Demographics.

0

50

100

150

85.2

125.1

5.9

84.4

Sales (billions of dollars)

1999

1998

2004

Catalog Orders Internet Orders
55

Culture - Outdoor Recreation

To illustrate how participating in outdoor recreation will change for selected activities, this indicator uses

projections based on a percentage of 1987 demand for recreation trips away from home. Between 1995

and 2008, increases in demand will vary from 30% for cross-country skiing, backpacking, and

dayhiking, to 5% for stream or lake swimming.

Recreation Trips Away from Home (as a percentage of 1987 demand)

Activity Current Condition Trend Future Projection

(1995) (2008)

Cross-country skiing 147 +30% 177

Backpacking 134 +30% 164

Day hiking 131 +30% 161

Visiting prehistoric sites 133 +27% 160

Bicycling 125 +23% 148

Visiting historic sites 122 +21% 143

Photography 123 +20% 143

Visiting museums 118 +18% 136

Sight seeing 118 +18% 136

Developed camping 120 +17% 137

Wildlife observation 116 +15% 131

Walking for pleasure 116 +15% 131

Primitive camping 114 +13% 127

Canoeing/kayaking 113 +13% 126

Driving for pleasure 115 +13% 128

Picnicking 108 +9% 117

Stream/lake swimming 105 +5% 110

Significance Many of these activities are available in units of the National Park System.

Recreational activities have varying impact on natural resources and require

unique park facilities, services, interpretive media, and regulations. The increased

demand for activities associated with backcountry and wilderness areas will put

pressure on these areas in many ways.

Surprise

Scenarios

Changes in rules and regulations protecting natural resources may influence use

patterns. Developments in sports technology may allow a wider range of users to

take advantage of existing recreational opportunities. Perceived crowding of parks

may influence outdoor recreational behavior. Economic instability may alter

projected recreation demand.

Source Pollock, Sean R. (ed.). (1995). Statistical Forecasts of the United States. New York:

Gale Research Inc.
56

Culture - Global Amusement and Theme Park Visitation

Amusement and theme parks are projected to grow in popularity in the next decade. In 1999, 309

million people visited amusement and theme parks, generating $9.1 billion in attendance revenue.

Visitation is projected to increase 38.2% as 427 million people attend in 2010. The revenue generated

from these visits will increase 38.5% to $12.6 billion.

Annual Amusement/Theme Park

Attendance

Annual Revenue Generated from

Amusement/Theme Parks

Trend Amusement/Theme Park Attendance +38.2%

Revenue Generated from Amusement/Theme Parks +38.5%

Significance Competition for disposable income and how money is spent may be of

significance to the NPS. Experiences at amusement and theme parks may alter

visitor expectations when visiting units of the National Park System.

Surprise

Scenarios

Changes in ticket prices, ride safety and technology, cultural perceptions of

nature-based recreation, and virtual reality technology could influence the

number of amusement and theme park visitors and the amount of money they

will spend.

Source International Association of Amusement Parks and Attractions. (2000, August 3).

Personal communications.

0

100

200

300

400

500

Amusement Park Attendees (millions)

1999 2010

309

427

0

3

6

9

12

$15

9.1

12.6

1999 2010

Dollars (billions)
57

Notes
58

Notes
59

Notes
60

Notes