Forecasting a Better FutureAd Hoc Met Meeting, May 26-27, 2004MM5 Sensitivity Modeling, Mainly inSupport of VISTAS (VisibilityImprovement State and Tribal Association ofthe Southeast)Don Olerud and Aaron SimsBaron Advanced Meteorological Systemsc/oNorth Carolina Supercomputing Center3021 Cornwallis Road, Research Triangle Park, NC,27709Email:don.olerud@baronams.comPhone: 919-248-9239Forecasting a Better FutureAd Hoc Met Meeting, May 26-27, 2004Status at last ad hoc meeting . . .Opx-acm configuration–Initial VISTAS setupOP-X LSMOACM PBLORRTM radiationOReisner 1 (mixed phase) microphysicsOKF2 clouds–Based on prior RPO MM5 workOWinter episode too cold–Better results if interppx not used–px_acm2 became new basecaseForecasting a Better FutureAd Hoc Met Meeting, May 26-27, 2004Since last ad hoc meeting . . .O4 main sensitivities–px_acm(2)–noah_mrf–multi_blkdr–noah_eta-myO3 episodes–Episode 1: Jan 2-20, 2002O00Z Dec 26, 2001 – 12Z Jan 21, 2002–Episode 2: July 13-27, 2001O00Z Jul 6 – 12Z Jul 28, 2001–Episode 3: July 13-21, 1999O00Z Jul 9 – 12Z Jul 22, 1999Forecasting a Better FutureAd Hoc Met Meeting, May 26-27, 2004Forecasting a Better FutureAd Hoc Met Meeting, May 26-27, 20044-panel plotsAvailable for all RPO regions:–Temp (max, min, avg)–Mixing Ratio (avg, 18Z-21Z avg, 07Z-10Zavg)–PBL (18Z-21Z avg, 07Z-10Z avg)–Wind Speed (18Z-21Z avg, 07Z-10Z avg)–Relative Humidity (18Z-21Z avg, 07Z-10Zavg)–Cloud Fraction (18Z-21Z avg, 07Z-10Z avg)–Pcp (18Z-21Z avg, avg)Forecasting a Better FutureAd Hoc Met Meeting, May 26-27, 2004Daytime PBLForecasting a Better FutureAd Hoc Met Meeting, May 26-27, 2004Nighttime PBLForecasting a Better FutureAd Hoc Met Meeting, May 26-27, 2004Temp Stats (Episode 1)Forecasting a Better FutureAd Hoc Met Meeting, May 26-27, 2004Spatial Statistical PlotsOStation-specific statistical rankingOpx_acm,noah_mrf,multi_blkdr,noah_eta-myOBest sensitivity displayedOHourly (Composite UTC day), Total statsavailableOBias, error, rmse (total only)OWarning: Possibly little difference between“best” and “worst” sensitivityForecasting a Better FutureAd Hoc Met Meeting, May 26-27, 2004T error episode 1Forecasting a Better FutureAd Hoc Met Meeting, May 26-27, 2004T error episode 2Forecasting a Better FutureAd Hoc Met Meeting, May 26-27, 2004Evaluation SummaryOpx_acm2 statistically best overallOWinds best in noah_eta-my, especially at night(px_acm2 strong second best)OTemps best in px_acm2, worst in noah_eta-myOSignificant differences in PBL heights(noah_mrf > px_acm > noah_eta-my)Onoah_eta-my produces more precip (spatially)than the other schemesForecasting a Better FutureAd Hoc Met Meeting, May 26-27, 2004Composite GSO soundingForecasting a Better FutureAd Hoc Met Meeting, May 26-27, 2004Auxiliary Sensitivity TestsOLimited analyses (statistical)OFull winter/summer episodic runsOExamines the following options–P-X soil initializations–Cloud parameterizations (KF2, KF, Grell)–Radiation schemes (Surface, cloud, ccm, rrtm)–Nudging options (strength,thermodynamic nudging in pbl)–Snow effects–Reisner 1 / Reisner 2 Microphysics–LITTLE_R vs RAWINSForecasting a Better FutureAd Hoc Met Meeting, May 26-27, 2004Winter Base Case (px_acm2) Stats(Episode 1, US 36km)Total statsbiasabserrr2iarmseTemperature (K)-1.142.300.8790.9633.0613Mixing Ratio (g/kg)0.070.530.8760.9670.7673Rel. Humidity (%)3.5412.620.4510.81416.4208Wind Speed (m/s)-0.021.330.5100.8081.7307Clouds (%)-4.0026.120.3400.76337.6462Wind statsbiasabserruerrverruverrWind (deg, m/s)1.91325.111.25201.25521.7729Pcp Threshold (in)AccBiasFARPODCSIETSTSSHSS0.010.83601.00610.27600.72840.57010.43790.61020.60910.050.90381.11560.32040.75810.55850.49140.68980.65900.100.93521.14050.33080.76320.55410.51150.71870.67680.250.97031.06280.29590.74840.56930.55020.73090.70990.500.98451.00060.31330.68720.52320.51400.67920.67901.000.99400.88730.38330.54720.40830.40540.54460.5769Forecasting a Better FutureAd Hoc Met Meeting, May 26-27, 2004Summer Base Case (px_acm2) Stats(Episode 2, US 36km)Total statsbiasabserrr2iarmseTemperature (K)-0.161.620.8770.9642.1443Mixing Ratio (g/kg)-0.171.470.8090.9471.9714Rel. Humidity (%)-0.289.780.6720.90413.0680Wind Speed (m/s)-0.201.240.4290.7721.6149Clouds (%)1.3827.520.1340.63537.9526Wind statsbiasabserruerrverruverrWind (deg, m/s)2.01032.371.24691.30371.8040Pcp Threshold (in)AccBiasFARPODCSIETSTSSHSS0.010.73750.88220.25010.66160.54200.30670.46630.46940.050.75781.08150.41050.63760.44150.27940.44700.43680.100.78071.23920.50890.60850.37320.25110.43630.40140.250.83871.54060.65090.53780.26850.20080.41370.33450.500.90521.68290.75650.40980.18030.14820.34160.25821.000.97151.55770.86960.20300.08620.07820.18490.1450Forecasting a Better FutureAd Hoc Met Meeting, May 26-27, 2004Cross Sensitivity Stat TablesOpx_acm2 is normally the base caseOStat differences are tabulated and colorcoded–Green means the sensitivity being testedperforms better; red means worse–Differences are calculated from optimum valueOIf IA (base) is 0.95, and IA(test) is 0.90, then -0.05would be plotted in red.If IA (test) were 0.97,then 0.02 would be plotted in green.OIf precip bias (base) is 0.90 and precip bias (test)is 1.08, then 0.02 would be plotted in green.Forecasting a Better FutureAd Hoc Met Meeting, May 26-27, 2004Winter px_acm stats (Episode 1, US 36km)Total statsbiasabserrr2iarmseTemperature (K)-0.92-0.60-0.021-0.017-0.6456Mixing Ratio (g/kg)-0.010.00-0.002-0.0010.0023Rel. Humidity (%)0.26-0.08-0.017-0.006-0.1239Wind Speed (m/s)-0.02-0.03-0.022-0.015-0.0392Clouds (%)-0.230.120.0020.0010.0373Wind statsbiasabserruerrverruverrWind (deg, m/s)0.424-0.06-0.0205-0.0178-0.0270Pcp Threshold (in)AccBiasFARPODCSIETSTSSHSS0.010.0035-0.01400.0120-0.00730.00280.00570.00080.00540.050.00230.02350.0104-0.00450.00450.0057-0.00100.00510.100.00140.02380.0097-0.00510.00390.0045-0.00290.00400.250.00060.02210.0103-0.00490.00390.0042-0.00380.00340.500.0000-0.01110.0030-0.0056-0.0016-0.0015-0.0054-0.00131.000.0000-0.0051-0.0010-0.0041-0.0027-0.0028-0.0040-0.0028Forecasting a Better FutureAd Hoc Met Meeting, May 26-27, 2004Summer px_acm stats (Episode 2, US 36km)Total statsbiasabserrr2iarmseTemperature (K)0.040.050.0040.0020.0393Mixing Ratio (g/kg)-0.24-0.040.003-0.002-0.0335Rel. Humidity (%)-1.56-0.13-0.003-0.002-0.2838Wind Speed (m/s)0.020.00-0.0010.000-0.0004Clouds (%)0.06-0.07-0.002-0.002-0.0969Wind statsbiasabserruerrverruverrWind (deg, m/s)-0.0740.07-0.0015-0.0012-0.0019Pcp Threshold (in)AccBiasFARPODCSIETSTSSHSS0.010.0026-0.01240.0068-0.00340.00120.00430.00450.00500.050.00310.01700.0063-0.00340.00190.00380.00250.00460.100.00320.01690.0059-0.00100.00300.00420.00330.00530.250.00320.02810.00660.00020.00400.00470.00380.00640.500.00140.03710.0027-0.00470.00050.0008-0.00300.00121.000.00040.03560.0006-0.0036-0.0003-0.0003-0.0032-0.0005Forecasting a Better FutureAd Hoc Met Meeting, May 26-27, 2004Winter noah_mrf stats (Episode 1, US 36km)Total statsbiasabserrr2iarmseTemperature (K)-0.14-0.17-0.012-0.005-0.1357Mixing Ratio (g/kg)0.010.040.0090.0020.0382Rel. Humidity (%)-0.400.220.0060.0000.3528Wind Speed (m/s)-0.13-0.020.0010.025-0.0283Clouds (%)-2.68-1.58-0.042-0.029-1.4727Wind statsbiasabserruerrverruverrWind (deg, m/s)-2.704-0.27-0.0108-0.0156-0.0187Pcp Threshold (in)AccBiasFARPODCSIETSTSSHSS0.01-0.0153-0.0554-0.03590.0020-0.0213-0.0302-0.0207-0.02980.05-0.0042-0.0243-0.0154-0.0009-0.0109-0.0128-0.0058-0.01160.10-0.0015-0.0225-0.00930.0042-0.0042-0.00500.0021-0.00440.25-0.0027-0.0400-0.0299-0.0049-0.0223-0.0234-0.0073-0.01980.50-0.0011-0.0105-0.0224-0.0155-0.0217-0.0220-0.0161-0.01951.00-0.00060.0437-0.0464-0.0162-0.0290-0.0293-0.0167-0.0303Forecasting a Better FutureAd Hoc Met Meeting, May 26-27, 2004Summer noah_mrf stats (Episode 2, US 36km)Total statsbiasabserrr2iarmseTemperature (K)-0.37-0.27-0.021-0.005-0.3041Mixing Ratio (g/kg)-0.67-0.050.017-0.005-0.0018Rel. Humidity (%)-2.50-0.020.016-0.0020.3326Wind Speed (m/s)-0.31-0.20-0.104-0.047-0.2402Clouds (%)0.830.500.0050.0010.6075Wind statsbiasabserruerrverruverrWind (deg, m/s)-1.086-0.53-0.0358-0.0394-0.0531Pcp Threshold (in)AccBiasFARPODCSIETSTSSHSS0.01-0.0003-0.01570.0042-0.0082-0.0034-0.0009-0.0015-0.00100.050.00580.02060.0109-0.00070.00580.00850.00790.01030.100.00760.04100.0145-0.00270.00720.01000.00770.01270.250.01500.14500.0331-0.00450.01790.02140.01300.02920.500.01510.30810.0500-0.00640.02430.02720.00980.04031.000.00470.27630.05750.03780.03180.03240.04190.0542Forecasting a Better FutureAd Hoc Met Meeting, May 26-27, 2004Winter multi_blkdr stats (Episode 1, US 36km)Total statsbiasabserrr2iarmseTemperature (K)-0.36-0.22-0.023-0.010-0.3301Mixing Ratio (g/kg)-0.31-0.14-0.033-0.017-0.1974Rel. Humidity (%)-11.03-4.38-0.080-0.147-5.0237Wind Speed (m/s)-0.26-0.05-0.0020.024-0.0604Clouds (%)2.38-1.57-0.042-0.020-1.3545Wind statsbiasabserruerrverruverrWind (deg, m/s)-1.938-0.38-0.0476-0.0389-0.0611Pcp Threshold (in)AccBiasFARPODCSIETSTSSHSS0.01-0.0282-0.13820.06820.0220-0.0318-0.0495-0.0275-0.04960.05-0.0058-0.04900.02310.0065-0.0124-0.0152-0.0017-0.01380.10-0.0028-0.03850.01680.0060-0.0085-0.00990.0021-0.00870.25-0.0012-0.02910.01540.0036-0.0080-0.00860.0023-0.00720.50-0.0004-0.00990.0091-0.0025-0.0068-0.0069-0.0028-0.00601.00-0.0001-0.02840.0009-0.0183-0.0106-0.0106-0.0182-0.0108Forecasting a Better FutureAd Hoc Met Meeting, May 26-27, 2004Summer multi_blkdr stats(Episode 2, US 36km)Total statsbiasabserrr2iarmseTemperature (K)0.02-0.14-0.019-0.006-0.1609Mixing Ratio (g/kg)0.15-0.02-0.030-0.010-0.0399Rel. Humidity (%)-0.65-0.48-0.032-0.021-0.2737Wind Speed (m/s)0.10-0.12-0.073-0.018-0.1302Clouds (%)0.040.910.0110.0050.9705Wind statsbiasabserruerrverruverrWind (deg, m/s)-0.841-0.24-0.0488-0.0678-0.0828Pcp Threshold (in)AccBiasFARPODCSIETSTSSHSS0.01-0.02540.03950.0400-0.0073-0.0257-0.0413-0.0487-0.04990.05-0.0254-0.06820.0421-0.0083-0.0276-0.0377-0.0411-0.04750.10-0.0229-0.08160.0399-0.0125-0.0276-0.0342-0.0382-0.04490.25-0.0107-0.02720.0284-0.0350-0.0250-0.0263-0.0426-0.03730.500.00070.11460.0144-0.0505-0.0176-0.0169-0.0471-0.02611.000.00230.1937-0.0100-0.01160.00190.0023-0.00920.0040Forecasting a Better FutureAd Hoc Met Meeting, May 26-27, 2004Winter noah_eta-my stats(Episode 1, US 36km)Total statsbiasabserrr2iarmseTemperature (K)-1.30-0.90-0.046-0.030-1.1408Mixing Ratio (g/kg)-0.06-0.08-0.022-0.007-0.0803Rel. Humidity (%)-10.88-4.71-0.077-0.125-5.2197Wind Speed (m/s)-0.060.030.0260.0280.0442Clouds (%)1.19-0.98-0.016-0.011-0.2897Wind statsbiasabserruerrverruverrWind (deg, m/s)0.6680.350.03710.03180.0487Pcp Threshold (in)AccBiasFARPODCSIETSTSSHSS0.01-0.0434-0.2155-0.09900.0351-0.0465-0.0732-0.0418-0.07470.05-0.0015-0.0123-0.00630.0013-0.0036-0.0043-0.0008-0.00390.100.00030.00090.00150.00110.00170.00170.00130.00150.25-0.00010.00930.0016-0.0050-0.0019-0.0018-0.0047-0.00160.50-0.0002-0.0047-0.0015-0.0056-0.0041-0.0042-0.0056-0.00361.00-0.0001-0.0142-0.0051-0.0132-0.0095-0.0096-0.0132-0.0098Forecasting a Better FutureAd Hoc Met Meeting, May 26-27, 2004Summer noah_eta-my stats(Episode 2, US 36km)Total statsbiasabserrr2iarmseTemperature (K)-1.15-0.71-0.043-0.022-0.8789Mixing Ratio (g/kg)0.000.050.0090.0030.0895Rel. Humidity (%)-5.67-0.740.032-0.008-0.5429Wind Speed (m/s)-0.240.000.0260.002-0.0108Clouds (%)-0.540.45-0.006-0.0080.2731Wind statsbiasabserruerrverruverrWind (deg, m/s)1.1380.310.03350.03370.0475Pcp Threshold (in)AccBiasFARPODCSIETSTSSHSS0.01-0.01760.1064-0.04590.0344-0.0036-0.0269-0.0293-0.03210.05-0.0149-0.1029-0.02880.0265-0.0046-0.0146-0.0062-0.01800.10-0.0181-0.1142-0.03040.0150-0.0128-0.0197-0.0122-0.02550.25-0.0085-0.0389-0.0208-0.0193-0.0169-0.0182-0.0264-0.02560.500.00450.1814-0.0016-0.0465-0.0104-0.0091-0.0393-0.01391.000.00400.35900.0130-0.0311-0.0014-0.0006-0.0268-0.0010Forecasting a Better FutureAd Hoc Met Meeting, May 26-27, 2004Sensitivity test: px_acm3OLike px_acm2, except:–soil moisture/temperature initialization forP-X soil layer 2 from EDAS soil layer 3 (40-100 cm).Forecasting a Better FutureAd Hoc Met Meeting, May 26-27, 2004Winter px-acm3 stats (Episode 1, US 36km)Total statsbiasabserrr2iarmseTemperature (K)0.650.17-0.0020.0030.2029Mixing Ratio (g/kg)0.050.00-0.0020.000-0.0035Rel. Humidity (%)2.530.180.0250.0150.1032Wind Speed (m/s)-0.030.020.0100.0090.0192Clouds (%)-0.02-0.010.0010.0000.0497Wind statsbiasabserruerrverruverrWind (deg, m/s)-0.643-0.020.00720.00260.0070Pcp Threshold (in)AccBiasFARPODCSIETSTSSHSS0.01-0.0028-0.0257-0.01010.0082-0.0014-0.00380.0007-0.00370.05-0.0016-0.0193-0.00750.0047-0.0026-0.00340.0019-0.00310.10-0.0012-0.0252-0.00860.0069-0.0023-0.00300.0048-0.00260.25-0.0007-0.0199-0.00920.0039-0.0038-0.00410.0031-0.00350.50-0.0002-0.0251-0.00830.00860.0000-0.00010.0082-0.00011.000.00000.0152-0.00140.00810.00390.00380.00810.0039Forecasting a Better FutureAd Hoc Met Meeting, May 26-27, 2004Summer px_acm3 stats (Episode 2, US 36km)Total statsbiasabserrr2iarmseTemperature (K)-0.62-0.23-0.018-0.007-0.2704Mixing Ratio (g/kg)-0.25-0.03-0.006-0.004-0.0304Rel. Humidity (%)-0.09-0.18-0.009-0.003-0.2014Wind Speed (m/s)0.00-0.01-0.008-0.005-0.0114Clouds (%)0.150.060.0010.001-0.0039Wind statsbiasabserruerrverruverrWind (deg, m/s)0.1470.07-0.0061-0.0036-0.0068Pcp Threshold (in)AccBiasFARPODCSIETSTSSHSS0.01-0.0068-0.04010.0033-0.0273-0.0168-0.0126-0.0159-0.01490.050.00050.05990.0060-0.0292-0.0110-0.0069-0.0160-0.00850.100.00430.07940.0079-0.0297-0.0071-0.0034-0.0162-0.00440.250.00750.12850.0101-0.0305-0.00220.0003-0.01840.00040.500.00610.18420.0082-0.0326-0.0025-0.0010-0.0245-0.00161.000.00310.28070.0104-0.0232-0.00040.0001-0.01980.0003Forecasting a Better FutureAd Hoc Met Meeting, May 26-27, 2004Sensitivity test: px_acm4OLike px_acm2, except:–uses the SFCFDDA file from RAWINS andMMINPUT files processed using RAWINSdata rather than REGRID data .Forecasting a Better FutureAd Hoc Met Meeting, May 26-27, 2004Winter px-acm4 stats (Episode 1, US 36km)Total statsbiasabserrr2iarmseTemperature (K)0.080.070.0040.0020.0950Mixing Ratio (g/kg)-0.020.010.0030.0000.0093Rel. Humidity (%)-0.180.090.0090.0030.1488Wind Speed (m/s)0.02-0.03-0.024-0.010-0.0397Clouds (%)-0.22-0.15-0.006-0.003-0.2251Wind statsbiasabserruerrverruverrWind (deg, m/s)-0.255-0.62-0.0339-0.0300-0.0452Pcp Threshold (in)AccBiasFARPODCSIETSTSSHSS0.01-0.0033-0.0153-0.00870.0022-0.0041-0.0062-0.0035-0.00610.05-0.0010-0.0074-0.00420.0004-0.0026-0.0031-0.0009-0.00280.10-0.0010-0.0073-0.0050-0.0009-0.0039-0.0044-0.0018-0.00380.25-0.00010.02030.0032-0.0110-0.0043-0.0042-0.0104-0.00360.500.0000-0.03460.0079-0.0170-0.0055-0.0054-0.0165-0.00481.000.0001-0.02640.0130-0.00510.00280.0028-0.00490.0028Forecasting a Better FutureAd Hoc Met Meeting, May 26-27, 2004Summer px_acm4 stats (Episode 2, US 36km)Total statsbiasabserrr2iarmseTemperature (K)-0.100.010.0050.0010.0265Mixing Ratio (g/kg)0.020.010.0030.0010.0200Rel. Humidity (%)0.180.220.0160.0050.3339Wind Speed (m/s)-0.01-0.03-0.030-0.016-0.0438Clouds (%)0.05-0.13-0.004-0.003-0.1747Wind statsbiasabserruerrverruverrWind (deg, m/s)-0.087-0.91-0.0344-0.0341-0.0484Pcp Threshold (in)AccBiasFARPODCSIETSTSSHSS0.010.0027-0.00960.0060-0.00200.00180.00440.00480.00510.050.00300.01800.0063-0.00400.00160.00360.00210.00430.100.00020.02810.0000-0.0137-0.0052-0.0041-0.0098-0.00530.250.00330.06830.0031-0.0193-0.0031-0.0019-0.0132-0.00260.500.00180.0780-0.0014-0.0213-0.0050-0.0044-0.0182-0.00681.000.00120.04650.01790.02110.01180.01180.02190.0202Forecasting a Better FutureAd Hoc Met Meeting, May 26-27, 2004Sensitivity test: px_acm5OLike px_acm2, except:–uses Reisner 2 microphysics rather thanReisner 1.Forecasting a Better FutureAd Hoc Met Meeting, May 26-27, 2004Winter px-acm5 stats (Episode 1, US 36km)Total statsbiasabserrr2iarmseTemperature (K)0.120.070.0030.0020.0972Mixing Ratio (g/kg)-0.010.000.0000.0000.0004Rel. Humidity (%)-0.01-0.06-0.0010.000-0.0488Wind Speed (m/s)0.000.010.0010.0010.0018Clouds (%)2.280.950.0240.0170.6766Wind statsbiasabserruerrverruverrWind (deg, m/s)-0.046-0.010.00170.00080.0018Pcp Threshold (in)AccBiasFARPODCSIETSTSSHSS0.010.0031-0.07990.0283-0.0408-0.0094-0.0030-0.0190-0.00290.050.00330.08600.0247-0.0329-0.00250.0001-0.02280.00010.100.00180.07000.0190-0.0265-0.0017-0.0006-0.0213-0.00050.250.00070.05050.0169-0.0186-0.00020.0002-0.01680.00010.50-0.0003-0.04420.0046-0.0269-0.0133-0.0132-0.0264-0.01171.00-0.0001-0.0325-0.0015-0.0213-0.0126-0.0126-0.0212-0.0129Forecasting a Better FutureAd Hoc Met Meeting, May 26-27, 2004Summer px_acm5 stats (Episode 2, US 36km)Total statsbiasabserrr2iarmseTemperature (K)0.07-0.03-0.002-0.001-0.0285Mixing Ratio (g/kg)0.01-0.02-0.004-0.002-0.0248Rel. Humidity (%)-0.20-0.12-0.009-0.003-0.1517Wind Speed (m/s)-0.020.00-0.001-0.002-0.0034Clouds (%)-0.30-0.11-0.0010.000-0.2593Wind statsbiasabserruerrverruverrWind (deg, m/s)0.122-0.020.0000-0.0005-0.0003Pcp Threshold (in)AccBiasFARPODCSIETSTSSHSS0.01-0.0066-0.03240.0013-0.0232-0.0150-0.0121-0.0151-0.01430.05-0.00230.04260.0000-0.0252-0.0122-0.0099-0.0177-0.01220.100.00060.05250.0006-0.0250-0.0092-0.0072-0.0175-0.00920.250.00460.11080.0029-0.0344-0.0072-0.0052-0.0249-0.00740.500.00600.18870.0071-0.0354-0.0037-0.0022-0.0272-0.00341.000.00240.22190.0059-0.0210-0.0017-0.0013-0.0184-0.0021Forecasting a Better FutureAd Hoc Met Meeting, May 26-27, 2004Sensitivity test: px_acm6OLike px_acm2, except:–analysis nudging strengths aloft forwind/temps are increased from 2.5E-4,1.0E-4 (36/12 km) to 3.0E-4, 3.0E-4.Forecasting a Better FutureAd Hoc Met Meeting, May 26-27, 2004Winter px-acm6 stats (Episode 1, US 36km)Total statsbiasabserrr2iarmseTemperature (K)0.010.000.0000.0000.0053Mixing Ratio (g/kg)0.000.000.0000.000-0.0009Rel. Humidity (%)0.070.070.0030.0020.0799Wind Speed (m/s)-0.020.00-0.002-0.002-0.0041Clouds (%)-0.030.020.0010.0000.0167Wind statsbiasabserruerrverruverrWind (deg, m/s)0.145-0.04-0.0006-0.0011-0.0011Pcp Threshold (in)AccBiasFARPODCSIETSTSSHSS0.010.00010.00340.0010-0.0014-0.00030.0000-0.00060.00000.050.00030.00410.0013-0.00120.00020.0004-0.00070.00030.100.00040.00250.00230.00090.00210.00210.00130.00190.250.00020.00000.00180.00190.00230.00240.00200.00190.50-0.0001-0.0105-0.00250.00460.00120.00110.00450.00101.000.00000.0031-0.00210.0000-0.0009-0.00100.0000-0.0010Forecasting a Better FutureAd Hoc Met Meeting, May 26-27, 2004Summer px_acm6 stats (Episode 2, US 36km)Total statsbiasabserrr2iarmseTemperature (K)0.000.000.0010.0010.0059Mixing Ratio (g/kg)-0.01-0.01-0.002-0.001-0.0132Rel. Humidity (%)-0.060.010.0010.0010.0190Wind Speed (m/s)0.000.00-0.001-0.001-0.0023Clouds (%)0.01-0.14-0.003-0.003-0.2124Wind statsbiasabserruerrverruverrWind (deg, m/s)0.026-0.12-0.0029-0.0027-0.0039Pcp Threshold (in)AccBiasFARPODCSIETSTSSHSS0.01-0.00050.0045-0.00190.00170.0002-0.0007-0.0008-0.00080.05-0.0023-0.0094-0.00420.0009-0.0019-0.0031-0.0028-0.00380.10-0.0031-0.0116-0.0057-0.0014-0.0038-0.0048-0.0050-0.00610.25-0.0018-0.0141-0.0041-0.0014-0.0027-0.0031-0.0033-0.00430.50-0.0015-0.0280-0.0046-0.0011-0.0028-0.0030-0.0027-0.00461.00-0.0005-0.0485-0.00170.0037-0.0001-0.00020.0030-0.0003Forecasting a Better FutureAd Hoc Met Meeting, May 26-27, 2004Sensitivity test: px_acm7OLike px_acm2, except:–SFCFDDA files from RAWINS are usedinstead of those from LITTLE_R.Forecasting a Better FutureAd Hoc Met Meeting, May 26-27, 2004Winter px-acm7 stats (Episode 1, US 36km)Total statsbiasabserrr2iarmseTemperature (K)0.00-0.010.0000.000-0.0029Mixing Ratio (g/kg)0.000.00-0.0010.000-0.0009Rel. Humidity (%)-0.050.010.0000.0000.0095Wind Speed (m/s)0.00-0.04-0.028-0.013-0.0470Clouds (%)0.050.010.0010.0000.0226Wind statsbiasabserruerrverruverrWind (deg, m/s)0.017-0.77-0.0373-0.0370-0.0525Pcp Threshold (in)AccBiasFARPODCSIETSTSSHSS0.01-0.00020.00140.0000-0.0010-0.0006-0.0006-0.0008-0.00060.05-0.0001-0.0008-0.00050.0000-0.0003-0.0003-0.0001-0.00030.100.00050.00200.00230.00130.00230.00240.00170.00210.250.00010.00220.00150.00000.00100.00100.00010.00080.50-0.0001-0.0000-0.0003-0.0013-0.0010-0.0010-0.0012-0.00081.000.00000.0152-0.00250.00710.00280.00270.00710.0028Forecasting a Better FutureAd Hoc Met Meeting, May 26-27, 2004Summer px_acm7 stats (Episode 2, US 36km)Total statsbiasabserrr2iarmseTemperature (K)0.00-0.01-0.0010.000-0.0153Mixing Ratio (g/kg)0.060.010.0030.0000.0100Rel. Humidity (%)0.260.040.0030.0010.0765Wind Speed (m/s)-0.01-0.04-0.033-0.018-0.0484Clouds (%)-0.18-0.13-0.002-0.002-0.1188Wind statsbiasabserruerrverruverrWind (deg, m/s)-0.023-1.18-0.0404-0.0433-0.0592Pcp Threshold (in)AccBiasFARPODCSIETSTSSHSS0.01-0.0025-0.0088-0.0005-0.0071-0.0050-0.0045-0.0055-0.00530.05-0.00260.0117-0.0031-0.0103-0.0066-0.0065-0.0097-0.00800.10-0.00430.0104-0.0083-0.0152-0.0104-0.0108-0.0165-0.01390.25-0.00180.0062-0.0060-0.0114-0.0063-0.0064-0.0119-0.00900.50-0.0012-0.0166-0.0047-0.0039-0.0033-0.0035-0.0050-0.00531.00-0.0002-0.03260.00140.00660.00180.00170.00620.0030Forecasting a Better FutureAd Hoc Met Meeting, May 26-27, 2004Sensitivity test: px_acm8OLike px_acm2, except:–MMINPUT files are processed using datafrom LITTLE_R rather than from REGRID.Forecasting a Better FutureAd Hoc Met Meeting, May 26-27, 2004Winter px-acm8 stats (Episode 1, US 36km)Total statsbiasabserrr2iarmseTemperature (K)0.220.150.0080.0040.1800Mixing Ratio (g/kg)-0.020.010.0020.0000.0076Rel. Humidity (%)0.350.320.0210.0100.4144Wind Speed (m/s)0.020.020.0100.0070.0180Clouds (%)0.030.050.0030.0010.1037Wind statsbiasabserruerrverruverrWind (deg, m/s)-0.2370.190.00980.01290.0161Pcp Threshold (in)AccBiasFARPODCSIETSTSSHSS0.01-0.0043-0.0168-0.01070.0013-0.0059-0.0085-0.0054-0.00820.05-0.0015-0.0107-0.00590.0007-0.0036-0.0043-0.0012-0.00390.10-0.0009-0.0110-0.00550.0010-0.0032-0.0037-0.0002-0.00320.250.00030.02250.0078-0.00780.00050.0008-0.00690.00060.50-0.0003-0.03120.0004-0.0220-0.0126-0.0126-0.0217-0.01111.000.0000-0.02330.0014-0.0132-0.0068-0.0068-0.0131-0.0069Forecasting a Better FutureAd Hoc Met Meeting, May 26-27, 2004Summer px_acm8 stats (Episode 2, US 36km)Total statsbiasabserrr2iarmseTemperature (K)0.060.070.0110.0030.0879Mixing Ratio (g/kg)0.000.000.0020.0000.0121Rel. Humidity (%)-0.130.230.0140.0050.3027Wind Speed (m/s)0.000.010.0080.0050.0113Clouds (%)0.330.190.0040.0020.2725Wind statsbiasabserruerrverruverrWind (deg, m/s)-0.2500.260.00910.01180.0148Pcp Threshold (in)AccBiasFARPODCSIETSTSSHSS0.010.00400.01220.00140.01040.00770.00740.00880.00860.050.0011-0.0235-0.00020.01360.00640.00520.00940.00630.10-0.0018-0.0272-0.00320.00940.00160.00040.00450.00050.25-0.0019-0.0089-0.0049-0.0044-0.0039-0.0042-0.0060-0.00590.50-0.0023-0.0344-0.0080-0.0054-0.0055-0.0058-0.0076-0.00881.000.0002-0.00580.00640.01090.00480.00480.01090.0082Forecasting a Better FutureAd Hoc Met Meeting, May 26-27, 2004Sensitivity test: px_acm9OLike px_acm2, except:–initialization for soil temperature/moistureis based on a 25% weighting of EDAS soillayer 1 (0-10 cm) values and a 75%weighting from EDAS soil layer 3 (40-100cm). Code supplied by Aijun Xiu; executedfor episode 3 only.Forecasting a Better FutureAd Hoc Met Meeting, May 26-27, 2004Summer px_acm9 stats (Episode 3, US 36km)Total statsbiasabserrr2iarmseTemperature (K)-0.42-0.12-0.009-0.004-0.1230Mixing Ratio (g/kg)-0.080.010.0000.0000.0113Rel. Humidity (%)0.00-0.08-0.006-0.002-0.0670Wind Speed (m/s)-0.01-0.01-0.005-0.005-0.0098Clouds (%)-0.09-0.03-0.0020.000-0.0983Wind statsbiasabserruerrverruverrWind (deg, m/s)0.1390.05-0.0036-0.0039-0.0053Pcp Threshold (in)AccBiasFARPODCSIETSTSSHSS0.01-0.0049-0.0160-0.0015-0.0132-0.0098-0.0084-0.0108-0.01050.050.0000-0.02200.0020-0.0125-0.0052-0.0033-0.0072-0.00430.100.00110.03760.0016-0.0163-0.0056-0.0040-0.0107-0.00520.250.00340.04490.0062-0.00620.00170.0027-0.00170.00380.500.00190.05020.0047-0.00310.00200.0024-0.00090.00361.000.00130.10320.00680.00360.00390.00400.00490.0071Forecasting a Better FutureAd Hoc Met Meeting, May 26-27, 2004Sensitivity test: s0px_acm2OLike px_acm2, except:–snow cover effects are not considered(IFSNOW=0) as opposed to IFSNOW=1 inpx_acm2. Run only for episode 1.Forecasting a Better FutureAd Hoc Met Meeting, May 26-27, 2004Winter s0px-acm2 stats (Episode 1, US 36km)Total statsbiasabserrr2iarmseTemperature (K)0.070.030.0000.0010.0466Mixing Ratio (g/kg)-0.010.00-0.0010.000-0.0007Rel. Humidity (%)-0.08-0.020.0000.000-0.0138Wind Speed (m/s)0.010.010.0010.0010.0017Clouds (%)0.200.030.0010.0010.0607Wind statsbiasabserruerrverruverrWind (deg, m/s)-0.040-0.010.00070.00020.0007Pcp Threshold (in)AccBiasFARPODCSIETSTSSHSS0.01-0.0014-0.0095-0.00440.0025-0.0012-0.0022-0.0005-0.00220.05-0.0009-0.0076-0.00380.0010-0.0021-0.0025-0.0004-0.00230.10-0.0003-0.0057-0.00200.0015-0.0005-0.00070.0010-0.00060.25-0.0001-0.0003-0.0006-0.0005-0.0006-0.0006-0.0005-0.00060.50-0.0001-0.00130.0002-0.0016-0.0008-0.0008-0.0015-0.00071.000.00000.00000.00000.00000.00000.00000.00000.0000Forecasting a Better FutureAd Hoc Met Meeting, May 26-27, 2004Sensitivity test: s2px_acm2OLike px_acm2, except:–the simple snow model is employed(IFSNOW=2) as opposed to IFSNOW=1 inpx_acm2. Run only for episode 1.Forecasting a Better FutureAd Hoc Met Meeting, May 26-27, 2004Winter s2px-acm2 stats (Episode 1, US 36km)Total statsbiasabserrr2iarmseTemperature (K)-0.91-0.70-0.046-0.025-0.9534Mixing Ratio (g/kg)0.02-0.02-0.016-0.005-0.0415Rel. Humidity (%)-0.03-0.33-0.048-0.021-0.5583Wind Speed (m/s)0.00-0.02-0.019-0.011-0.0332Clouds (%)-0.130.170.0040.0020.1250Wind statsbiasabserruerrverruverrWind (deg, m/s)0.189-0.09-0.0204-0.0149-0.0249Pcp Threshold (in)AccBiasFARPODCSIETSTSSHSS0.010.0035-0.00930.0109-0.00480.00370.00640.00230.00610.050.00170.01880.0078-0.00420.00290.0038-0.00140.00340.100.00110.01640.0069-0.00320.00310.0035-0.00160.00310.250.00040.01800.0077-0.00470.00230.0025-0.00390.00200.50-0.0001-0.01050.0016-0.0065-0.0029-0.0029-0.0064-0.00251.000.0000-0.00910.0006-0.0051-0.0025-0.0026-0.0050-0.0026Forecasting a Better FutureAd Hoc Met Meeting, May 26-27, 2004Sensitivity test: n0_px_acm2OLike px_acm2, except:–soil moisture nudging is turned off.Forecasting a Better FutureAd Hoc Met Meeting, May 26-27, 2004Summer n0_px_acm2stats(Episode 2, US36km)Total statsbiasabserrr2iarmseTemperature (K)0.09-0.07-0.010-0.002-0.0789Mixing Ratio (g/kg)-0.08-0.09-0.021-0.007-0.1060Rel. Humidity (%)-0.51-0.45-0.018-0.006-0.4458Wind Speed (m/s)0.000.00-0.002-0.001-0.0039Clouds (%)0.040.000.000-0.0010.0099Wind statsbiasabserruerrverruverrWind (deg, m/s)-0.048-0.12-0.0029-0.0032-0.0043Pcp Threshold (in)AccBiasFARPODCSIETSTSSHSS0.01-0.0030-0.0048-0.0022-0.0056-0.0049-0.0052-0.0063-0.00610.05-0.00130.0071-0.0014-0.0057-0.0035-0.0033-0.0051-0.00410.10-0.00130.0051-0.0026-0.0056-0.0036-0.0036-0.0058-0.00460.250.00020.0279-0.0022-0.0130-0.0045-0.0041-0.0111-0.00580.500.00140.04970.0006-0.0111-0.0019-0.0015-0.0090-0.00231.000.00090.07760.0014-0.0079-0.0008-0.0007-0.0071-0.0012Forecasting a Better FutureAd Hoc Met Meeting, May 26-27, 2004Sensitivity test: px_acm_nOLike px_acm_n, except:–surface analysis nudging is turned on fortemp/moisture at a strength of 2.5E-4,1.0E-4 (36, 12 km temps) and 1.0E-4, 1.0E4 (36, 12 km moisture).Forecasting a Better FutureAd Hoc Met Meeting, May 26-27, 2004Winter px-acm_n stats (Episode 1, US 36km)Total statsbiasabserrr2iarmseTemperature (K)0.270.470.0390.0120.5621Mixing Ratio (g/kg)-0.070.170.0650.0170.2255Rel. Humidity (%)0.384.660.2930.1055.9568Wind Speed (m/s)-0.050.040.0250.0140.0433Clouds (%)0.26-0.04-0.0020.000-0.0581Wind statsbiasabserrUerrverruverrWind (deg, m/s)-0.5860.070.01330.00930.0160Pcp Threshold (in)AccBiasFARPODCSIETSTSSHSS0.01-0.0018-0.0310-0.00950.01260.0016-0.00070.0047-0.00070.05-0.0049-0.0512-0.02110.0102-0.0091-0.01170.0023-0.01060.10-0.0027-0.0503-0.01800.0122-0.0062-0.00770.0077-0.00680.25-0.0008-0.0434-0.01480.0141-0.0018-0.00230.0126-0.00190.50-0.0003-0.0328-0.01010.01200.00090.00080.01150.00071.00-0.00020.0406-0.01710.0091-0.0027-0.00280.0089-0.0029Forecasting a Better FutureAd Hoc Met Meeting, May 26-27, 2004Summer px_acm_n stats (Episode 2, US 36km)Total statsbiasabserrr2iarmseTemperature (K)-0.020.210.0290.0090.2498Mixing Ratio (g/kg)-0.450.340.0800.0180.4189Rel. Humidity (%)-3.582.540.1740.0423.5250Wind Speed (m/s)0.060.010.0020.0090.0041Clouds (%)-0.56-0.79-0.020-0.021-0.4014Wind statsbiasabserruerrverruverrWind (deg, m/s)0.106-0.41-0.0204-0.0090-0.0206Pcp Threshold (in)AccBiasFARPODCSIETSTSSHSS0.01-0.0874-0.3281-0.16170.1888-0.0090-0.1196-0.1430-0.15420.05-0.1698-0.9034-0.18320.1689-0.0712-0.1464-0.1463-0.20210.10-0.1863-1.1667-0.17620.1491-0.0871-0.1379-0.1289-0.19800.25-0.1372-1.4409-0.13620.0971-0.0788-0.0992-0.0691-0.15010.50-0.0651-1.3678-0.09490.0436-0.0543-0.0616-0.0274-0.09871.00-0.0131-1.0558-0.04110.0305-0.0171-0.01870.0167-0.0327Forecasting a Better FutureAd Hoc Met Meeting, May 26-27, 2004Warning (1.0E-4 q)Forecasting a Better FutureAd Hoc Met Meeting, May 26-27, 2004Sensitivity test: px_acm_n2OLike px_acm2, except:–surface analysis nudging for moisture isreduced to 1.0E-5, 1.0E-5 (36, 12 km). Runonly for episode 2.Forecasting a Better FutureAd Hoc Met Meeting, May 26-27, 2004Summer px_acm_n2 stats (Episode 2, US 36km)Total statsbiasabserrr2iarmseTemperature (K)0.110.260.0340.0110.3233Mixing Ratio (g/kg)0.050.090.0160.0050.1248Rel. Humidity (%)-0.941.850.1140.0362.6266Wind Speed (m/s)0.080.010.0040.0120.0078Clouds (%)0.83-0.44-0.017-0.015-0.4841Wind statsbiasabserruerrverruverrWind (deg, m/s)-0.162-0.51-0.0240-0.0119-0.0252Pcp Threshold (in)AccBiasFARPODCSIETSTSSHSS0.01-0.0431-0.0421-0.09930.0930-0.0051-0.0628-0.0705-0.07720.05-0.0849-0.4172-0.11920.0673-0.0485-0.0898-0.0829-0.11800.10-0.0867-0.4984-0.11380.0470-0.0584-0.0857-0.0763-0.11750.25-0.0545-0.5351-0.08040.0199-0.0470-0.0570-0.0437-0.08310.50-0.0236-0.4618-0.0528-0.0009-0.0308-0.0341-0.0257-0.05331.00-0.0040-0.3357-0.01590.0138-0.0052-0.00590.0094-0.0101Forecasting a Better FutureAd Hoc Met Meeting, May 26-27, 2004Warning (1.0E-5 q)Forecasting a Better FutureAd Hoc Met Meeting, May 26-27, 2004Sensitivity test: g1px_acm2OLike px_acm2, except:–Grell cumulus parameterization replacesKF2.Forecasting a Better FutureAd Hoc Met Meeting, May 26-27, 2004Winter g1px-acm2 stats (Episode 1, US 36km)Total statsbiasabserrr2iarmseTemperature (K)0.060.030.0010.0000.0380Mixing Ratio (g/kg)-0.03-0.01-0.002-0.001-0.0153Rel. Humidity (%)-0.41-0.12-0.005-0.003-0.1239Wind Speed (m/s)0.010.00-0.0010.000-0.0009Clouds (%)1.380.420.0120.0080.3882Wind statsbiasabserruerrverruverrWind (deg, m/s)-0.166-0.04-0.0007-0.0018-0.0018Pcp Threshold (in)AccBiasFARPODCSIETSTSSHSS0.01-0.0303-0.1749-0.07620.0367-0.0297-0.0500-0.0222-0.05010.05-0.0146-0.1167-0.05410.0127-0.0311-0.0379-0.0072-0.03500.10-0.0069-0.0768-0.03760.0057-0.0232-0.0263-0.0027-0.02340.25-0.0030-0.0016-0.0268-0.0275-0.0327-0.0338-0.0291-0.02880.50-0.0016-0.0742-0.0178-0.0683-0.0495-0.0497-0.0681-0.04481.00-0.0006-0.1787-0.0293-0.1310-0.0862-0.0861-0.1306-0.0929Forecasting a Better FutureAd Hoc Met Meeting, May 26-27, 2004Summer g1px_acm2 stats(Episode 2, US 36km)Total statsbiasabserrr2iarmseTemperature (K)0.130.010.0030.0020.0314Mixing Ratio (g/kg)0.13-0.060.002-0.001-0.0454Rel. Humidity (%)0.020.010.0140.0050.1456Wind Speed (m/s)0.010.000.0020.0010.0035Clouds (%)-10.45-4.95-0.031-0.029-6.5085Wind statsbiasabserruerrverruverrWind (deg, m/s)-0.309-0.25-0.0060-0.0066-0.0090Pcp Threshold (in)AccBiasFARPODCSIETSTSSHSS0.01-0.0082-0.13770.0345-0.0776-0.0388-0.0176-0.0244-0.02090.050.0325-0.14720.1062-0.1010-0.00690.0246-0.01120.02950.100.04970.04320.1391-0.10180.01740.0460-0.01080.05680.250.05290.44070.1596-0.07990.04900.0663-0.01050.08710.500.02920.63250.1181-0.02990.04710.05370.00230.07771.000.00220.05730.03920.05150.02710.02720.05290.0457Forecasting a Better FutureAd Hoc Met Meeting, May 26-27, 2004Sensitivity test: k1px_acm2OLike px_acm2, except:–Kain-Fritsch cumulus parameterization isused instead of Kain-Fritsch. Run forepisode 2 only.Forecasting a Better FutureAd Hoc Met Meeting, May 26-27, 2004Summer k1px-acm2 stats (Episode 2, US 36km)Total statsbiasabserrr2iarmseTemperature (K)-0.33-0.17-0.034-0.011-0.3146Mixing Ratio (g/kg)-0.130.01-0.004-0.0020.0226Rel. Humidity (%)-0.48-0.76-0.061-0.021-1.3117Wind Speed (m/s)-0.04-0.01-0.009-0.006-0.0190Clouds (%)0.980.630.0100.0080.3314Wind statsbiasabserruerrverruverrWind (deg, m/s)0.167-0.10-0.0049-0.0029-0.0054Pcp Threshold (in)AccBiasFARPODCSIETSTSSHSS0.01-0.02740.0358-0.0415-0.0113-0.0290-0.0447-0.0530-0.05420.05-0.0291-0.0910-0.0482-0.0030-0.0288-0.0412-0.0433-0.05200.10-0.0313-0.1588-0.05120.0065-0.0283-0.0387-0.0352-0.05100.25-0.0294-0.2800-0.05010.0065-0.0294-0.0351-0.0273-0.05030.50-0.0166-0.2928-0.0446-0.0169-0.0282-0.0304-0.0336-0.04751.00-0.0028-0.1957-0.0200-0.0094-0.0106-0.0110-0.0122-0.0191Forecasting a Better FutureAd Hoc Met Meeting, May 26-27, 2004Sensitivity test: r1px_acm2OLike px_acm2, except:–Simple (surface) radiation scheme is usedinstead of RRTM.Forecasting a Better FutureAd Hoc Met Meeting, May 26-27, 2004Winter r1px-acm2 stats (Episode 1, US 36km)Total statsbiasabserrr2iarmseTemperature (K)-0.58-0.31-0.001-0.007-0.3004Mixing Ratio (g/kg)0.020.010.0000.0000.0018Rel. Humidity (%)-0.12-0.29-0.038-0.017-0.2959Wind Speed (m/s)-0.04-0.02-0.017-0.013-0.0311Clouds (%)-1.44-0.25-0.010-0.006-0.4534Wind statsbiasabserruerrverruverrWind (deg, m/s)0.490-0.10-0.0100-0.0137-0.0167Pcp Threshold (in)AccBiasFARPODCSIETSTSSHSS0.010.0067-0.05130.0270-0.02050.00320.0095-0.00220.00910.050.00400.03950.0180-0.00750.00780.0100-0.00140.00890.100.00220.03070.0142-0.00480.00710.0081-0.00170.00700.250.00050.01940.0091-0.00430.00340.0037-0.00340.00300.500.0000-0.00930.0023-0.0050-0.0016-0.0015-0.0048-0.00131.000.00000.0010-0.0018-0.0010-0.0013-0.0014-0.0010-0.0014Forecasting a Better FutureAd Hoc Met Meeting, May 26-27, 2004Summer r1px_acm2 stats (Episode 2, US 36km)Total statsbiasabserrr2iarmseTemperature (K)-0.86-0.32-0.011-0.012-0.3278Mixing Ratio (g/kg)-0.06-0.02-0.005-0.002-0.0187Rel. Humidity (%)-0.41-0.70-0.041-0.015-0.7381Wind Speed (m/s)-0.04-0.02-0.014-0.014-0.0249Clouds (%)0.900.530.0020.0010.2680Wind statsbiasabserruerrverruverrWind (deg, m/s)0.477-0.09-0.0107-0.0098-0.0145Pcp Threshold (in)AccBiasFARPODCSIETSTSSHSS0.01-0.0204-0.12150.0113-0.0825-0.0519-0.0376-0.0480-0.04530.050.0004-0.00970.0177-0.0858-0.0348-0.0222-0.0484-0.02760.100.00720.21870.0144-0.0926-0.0303-0.0201-0.0583-0.02620.250.01370.31920.0114-0.0975-0.0213-0.0151-0.0701-0.02120.500.01240.42110.0108-0.0890-0.0150-0.0115-0.0712-0.01761.000.00530.50550.0116-0.0536-0.0077-0.0065-0.0476-0.0112Forecasting a Better FutureAd Hoc Met Meeting, May 26-27, 2004Sensitivity test: r2px_acm2OLike px_acm2, except:–Uses cloud (Dudhia) radiation schemerather than RRTM.Forecasting a Better FutureAd Hoc Met Meeting, May 26-27, 2004Winter r2px-acm2 stats (Episode 1, US 36km)Total statsbiasabserrr2iarmseTemperature (K)0.080.010.0020.0010.0177Mixing Ratio (g/kg)-0.010.000.0000.000-0.0049Rel. Humidity (%)-0.51-0.030.0110.0030.0145Wind Speed (m/s)-0.010.010.0020.0010.0040Clouds (%)-0.01-0.04-0.002-0.001-0.0786Wind statsbiasabserruerrverruverrWind (deg, m/s)0.1020.040.00290.00410.0050Pcp Threshold (in)AccBiasFARPODCSIETSTSSHSS0.010.00110.00520.0035-0.00160.00120.00210.00070.00200.050.00040.00210.00130.00010.00090.00110.00050.00100.100.00040.00120.00200.00150.00220.00220.00180.00200.250.00000.00090.0003-0.00030.00010.0001-0.00020.00000.500.0000-0.00220.00010.00150.00090.00090.00150.00081.000.00000.0081-0.00220.00310.00080.00070.00300.0007Forecasting a Better FutureAd Hoc Met Meeting, May 26-27, 2004Summer r2px_acm2 stats (Episode 2, US 36km)Total statsbiasabserrr2iarmseTemperature (K)-0.38-0.18-0.015-0.007-0.1871Mixing Ratio (g/kg)0.11-0.05-0.009-0.003-0.0605Rel. Humidity (%)-0.870.050.0030.0000.1193Wind Speed (m/s)0.030.010.0050.0070.0080Clouds (%)0.550.11-0.001-0.0030.2064Wind statsbiasabserruerrverruverrWind (deg, m/s)-0.695-0.090.00120.00210.0023Pcp Threshold (in)AccBiasFARPODCSIETSTSSHSS0.010.00080.0217-0.00500.01170.00520.00200.00290.00240.05-0.0030-0.0430-0.00780.01650.0033-0.00010.0051-0.00020.10-0.0048-0.0681-0.00820.02280.00350.00030.01040.00040.25-0.0074-0.1230-0.00910.02780.0011-0.00110.0161-0.00160.50-0.0080-0.2153-0.01240.0289-0.0019-0.00340.0189-0.00521.00-0.0041-0.3741-0.01030.0291-0.0002-0.00100.0244-0.0016Forecasting a Better FutureAd Hoc Met Meeting, May 26-27, 2004Sensitivity test: r3px_acm2OLike px_acm2, except:–Uses CCM2 radiation instead of RRTM.Forecasting a Better FutureAd Hoc Met Meeting, May 26-27, 2004Winter r3px-acm2 stats (Episode 1, US 36km)Total statsbiasabserrr2iarmseTemperature (K)-0.78-0.53-0.016-0.015-0.6858Mixing Ratio (g/kg)0.07-0.01-0.002-0.001-0.0078Rel. Humidity (%)0.420.02-0.014-0.004-0.0024Wind Speed (m/s)0.01-0.01-0.010-0.005-0.0168Clouds (%)0.020.170.0040.0030.0969Wind statsbiasabserruerrverruverrWind (deg, m/s)0.067-0.08-0.0113-0.0130-0.0172Pcp Threshold (in)AccBiasFARPODCSIETSTSSHSS0.010.00120.00500.0032-0.00040.00170.00250.00150.00240.050.00080.00420.00270.00020.00190.00230.00100.00200.100.00090.00640.00450.00090.00360.00390.00170.00340.250.00010.00350.0020-0.00050.00100.0011-0.00030.00080.50-0.0001-0.0031-0.00210.0000-0.0012-0.0013-0.0001-0.00111.000.00000.0061-0.00080.00310.00140.00130.00300.0013Forecasting a Better FutureAd Hoc Met Meeting, May 26-27, 2004Summer r3px_acm2 stats (Episode 2, US 36km)Total statsbiasabserrr2iarmseTemperature (K)-0.25-0.05-0.006-0.001-0.0755Mixing Ratio (g/kg)0.000.020.0030.0010.0249Rel. Humidity (%)0.19-0.05-0.005-0.002-0.0882Wind Speed (m/s)0.010.00-0.005-0.003-0.0063Clouds (%)-0.300.050.0040.0030.1060Wind statsbiasabserruerrverruverrWind (deg, m/s)0.014-0.02-0.0051-0.0053-0.0073Pcp Threshold (in)AccBiasFARPODCSIETSTSSHSS0.010.00020.0115-0.00300.00600.00240.00070.00110.00080.05-0.0032-0.0120-0.00580.0007-0.0029-0.0044-0.0041-0.00550.10-0.0018-0.0105-0.00340.0009-0.0017-0.0023-0.0017-0.00300.250.00140.02110.0020-0.00440.00010.0005-0.00230.00070.500.00350.1348-0.0004-0.0335-0.0070-0.0060-0.0281-0.00931.000.00360.31400.0148-0.02240.00130.0020-0.01860.0035Forecasting a Better FutureAd Hoc Met Meeting, May 26-27, 2004A little RTOFS departure . . .Forecasting a Better FutureAd Hoc Met Meeting, May 26-27, 2004Sensitivity test: noah_mrf4OLike noah_mrf, except:–Yubao version of the mrf scheme.Forecasting a Better FutureAd Hoc Met Meeting, May 26-27, 2004Winter noah-mrf4 stats (Episode 1, US 36km)Total statsbiasabserrr2iarmseTemperature (K)-0.55-0.23-0.003-0.007-0.2867Mixing Ratio (g/kg)-0.11-0.05-0.006-0.002-0.0362Rel. Humidity (%)-8.59-3.80-0.059-0.097-4.1300Wind Speed (m/s)0.000.050.0260.0030.0700Clouds (%)2.690.460.0210.0140.9992Wind statsbiasabserruerrverruverrWind (deg, m/s)0.5290.490.02640.03550.0438Pcp Threshold (in)AccBiasFARPODCSIETSTSSHSS0.01-0.0035-0.0139-0.00780.0012-0.0044-0.0064-0.0043-0.00650.050.00250.03040.0116-0.00740.00380.0052-0.00300.00470.100.00180.02930.0116-0.00610.00480.0056-0.00350.00500.250.00190.04100.0236-0.00260.01390.0148-0.00050.01250.500.0010-0.01640.02710.00060.01560.01600.00160.01421.000.0004-0.05490.0334-0.00210.01330.0135-0.00160.0142Forecasting a Better FutureAd Hoc Met Meeting, May 26-27, 2004Summer noah_mrf4 stats (Episode 2, US 36km)Total statsbiasabserrr2iarmseTemperature (K)-0.50-0.21-0.007-0.007-0.2587Mixing Ratio (g/kg)0.580.06-0.0110.0060.0279Rel. Humidity (%)-2.38-0.600.010-0.005-0.5744Wind Speed (m/s)0.310.180.0910.0420.2203Clouds (%)-1.54-0.08-0.011-0.010-0.3203Wind statsbiasabserruerrverruverrWind (deg, m/s)0.4680.540.03110.03570.0472Pcp Threshold (in)AccBiasFARPODCSIETSTSSHSS0.01-0.00640.1141-0.03650.05020.0124-0.0080-0.0063-0.00940.05-0.0184-0.1460-0.03750.0425-0.0026-0.0159-0.0020-0.01950.10-0.0222-0.1829-0.03840.0395-0.0086-0.01860.0003-0.02380.25-0.0200-0.2106-0.04110.0145-0.0203-0.0250-0.0098-0.03430.50-0.0103-0.1969-0.0385-0.0026-0.0200-0.0220-0.0134-0.03241.00-0.00050.0182-0.0186-0.0269-0.0136-0.0136-0.0269-0.0223Forecasting a Better FutureAd Hoc Met Meeting, May 26-27, 2004Sensitivity test: noah_mrf4dOLike noah_mrf4, except:–Modified certain PBL-related parametersto obtain higher PBL heights thannoah_mrf4 (but lower than noah_mrf).Forecasting a Better FutureAd Hoc Met Meeting, May 26-27, 2004Winter noah-mrf4d stats (Episode 1, US 36km)Total statsbiasabserrr2iarmseTemperature (K)0.060.01-0.0030.0000.0098Mixing Ratio (g/kg)0.100.040.0080.0030.0418Rel. Humidity (%)2.601.570.0280.0401.6953Wind Speed (m/s)-0.100.000.0050.006-0.0106Clouds (%)-0.79-0.14-0.004-0.005-0.1215Wind statsbiasabserruerrverruverrWind (deg, m/s)-0.262-0.13-0.0126-0.0149-0.0194Pcp Threshold (in)AccBiasFARPODCSIETSTSSHSS0.01-0.0096-0.0455-0.02160.0067-0.0104-0.0162-0.0098-0.01670.05-0.0049-0.0450-0.02030.0070-0.0099-0.0124-0.0002-0.01130.10-0.0021-0.0335-0.01330.0069-0.0055-0.00650.0039-0.00580.25-0.0011-0.0333-0.01550.0063-0.0066-0.00710.0048-0.00600.50-0.00040.0219-0.01280.0025-0.0057-0.00600.0020-0.00521.00-0.0002-0.0071-0.0149-0.0172-0.0156-0.0157-0.0173-0.0165Forecasting a Better FutureAd Hoc Met Meeting, May 26-27, 2004Summer noah_mrf4d stats (Episode 2, US 36km)Total statsbiasabserrr2iarmseTemperature (K)0.120.01-0.0020.0010.0153Mixing Ratio (g/kg)0.100.050.0030.0020.0708Rel. Humidity (%)2.860.830.0060.0130.9292Wind Speed (m/s)0.020.010.0070.0070.0109Clouds (%)0.75-0.040.0040.0030.1620Wind statsbiasabserruerrverruverrWind (deg, m/s)-0.297-0.02-0.00070.00400.0024Pcp Threshold (in)AccBiasFARPODCSIETSTSSHSS0.010.0073-0.03360.0159-0.00900.00360.01160.01270.01360.050.00900.04440.0152-0.00740.00620.01090.00850.01340.100.01000.06400.0163-0.00850.00720.01090.00670.01410.250.00980.08210.02070.00360.01340.01530.01410.02110.500.00490.07130.02070.01280.01360.01440.01740.02121.000.0005-0.00950.01820.02470.01290.01290.02480.0212Forecasting a Better FutureAd Hoc Met Meeting, May 26-27, 2004PBL traceForecasting a Better FutureAd Hoc Met Meeting, May 26-27, 2004Sensitivity test: noah_mrf4fOLike noah_mrf4d, except:–Uses the (MM5 default) top soil option inTERRAIN rather than BotSoil option. Runfor episode 2 only.Forecasting a Better FutureAd Hoc Met Meeting, May 26-27, 2004Summer noah-mrf4f stats (Episode 2, US 36km)Total statsbiasabserrr2iarmseTemperature (K)-0.020.000.000-0.001-0.0049Mixing Ratio (g/kg)0.05-0.01-0.0010.000-0.0050Rel. Humidity (%)-0.32-0.13-0.004-0.003-0.1298Wind Speed (m/s)0.000.00-0.0010.000-0.0013Clouds (%)0.000.000.0000.0000.0101Wind statsbiasabserruerrverruverrWind (deg, m/s)-0.040-0.02-0.00100.0000-0.0007Pcp Threshold (in)AccBiasFARPODCSIETSTSSHSS0.010.00060.0051-0.00050.00320.00180.00130.00160.00150.05-0.0015-0.0095-0.00270.0024-0.0006-0.0015-0.0006-0.00180.10-0.0020-0.0113-0.00340.0009-0.0018-0.0024-0.0019-0.00320.25-0.0018-0.0084-0.0048-0.0044-0.0040-0.0043-0.0059-0.00580.50-0.0009-0.0245-0.00250.0030-0.0006-0.00080.0018-0.00111.00-0.0003-0.0311-0.00290.0022-0.0006-0.00070.0018-0.0011Forecasting a Better FutureAd Hoc Met Meeting, May 26-27, 2004Wind Speed TraceForecasting a Better FutureAd Hoc Met Meeting, May 26-27, 2004And now back to our regularlyscheduled programming. . .Forecasting a Better FutureAd Hoc Met Meeting, May 26-27, 2004MM5 preferred optionsOPleim-Xiu land-surface scheme/ACMpblORRTM radiationOKain-Fritsch 2 cloud parameterizationOReisner 1 microphysics–Similar results to Reisner 2 without thecomputational/disk expenseOLITTLE_R rather than RAWINSOSnow effects set to 1 (per Jon Pleim)ONudging as follows:–2.5E-4 (winds sfc/aloft, temp aloft) at 36 km–1.0E-4 (winds sfc/aloft, temp aloft) at 12 km–1.0E-5 (moisture aloft at 36/12 km)