Final Report

Future Year Electricity Generating Sector Emission Inventory Development Using the 

Integrated Planning Model (IPM®) in Support of Fine Particulate Mass and Visibility

Modeling in the VISTAS and Midwest RPO Regions

Prepared for

Visibility Improvement State and Tribal Association of the Southeast (VISTAS)

Prepared by

ICF Resources, L.L.C.

9300 Lee Highway

Fairfax, VA 22031

April 2005
Table of Contents

Table of Contents....................................................................................................................... 2

A. Overview ............................................................................................................................... 3

B. Modeling Assumptions........................................................................................................... 3

C. Analysis Results .................................................................................................................... 5

1. Emissions........................................................................................................................... 5

2. Projected Costs.................................................................................................................. 5

3. Projected Control Technology Retrofits .............................................................................. 6

4. Projected Generation Mix................................................................................................... 6

5. Projected Coal Production for the Electric Power Sector.................................................... 6

6. Projected Retail Electricity Prices....................................................................................... 7

7. Projected Fuel Price Impacts.............................................................................................. 7

D. Limitations of Analysis ........................................................................................................... 8

E. Appendix ............................................................................................................................... 9

1. Changes made to the NEEDS NODA Database for the VISTAS Analysis ...................... 9

Table A1 Changes made to NOx Post Combustion Control Installations on Existing Units 10

Table A2 Changes made to NOx Emission Rates (lbs/MMBtu)..........................................11

Table A3 Changes made to SO2 Scrubber Installations on Existing Units .........................15

Table A4 Changes made to SO2 Emission Rate Limits (lbs/MMBtu)..................................16

Table A5 Changes made to Particulate Matter (PM) Control Installations on Existing Units

..........................................................................................................................................18

Table A6 Changes made to Summer Net Dependable Capacity (MW)..............................19

Table A7 Changes made to Heat Rate (Btu/kWh) .............................................................20

Table A8 Changes made to Unit ID ...................................................................................21

Table A9 Duke and Progress Energy SO2 Control Plan for North Carolina Clean 

Smokestacks Rule.............................................................................................................22

Table A10 Duke and Progress Energy NOx Control Plan for North Carolina Clean 

Smokestacks Rule.............................................................................................................23

2. Emission Results...............................................................................................................24

Table A11 State Level Base Case NOx Emissions by Season (Thousand Tons)...............25

Table A12 State Level Base Case SO2 Emissions by Season (Thousand Tons)...............27

Table A13 State Level CAIR Case NOx Emissions by Season (Thousand Tons)...............29

Table A14 State Level CAIR Case SO2 Emissions by Season (Thousand Tons)...............31

3. Generation Results ...........................................................................................................33

Table A15 State Level Base Case Generation by Season (GWh) .....................................34

Table A16 State Level CAIR Case Generation by Season (GWh).....................................36

4. Cost Results......................................................................................................................38

Table A17 FOM Cost by IPM Model Region (Million 1999$)..............................................39

Table A18 VOM Cost by IPM Model Region (Million 1999$)..............................................40

Table A19 Fuel Cost by IPM Model Region (Million 1999$)...............................................41

Table A20 Capital Cost by IPM Model Region (Million 1999$)...........................................42
A. Overview

In order to model regional haze, visibility and other air quality issues, Visibility Improvement 

State and Tribal Association of the Southeast (VISTAS) awarded a contract to ICF Resources, 

L.L.C. (ICF) in August 2004, seeking ICF’s services to generate future year emission inventory 

for the electric generating sector of the contiguous United States using the Integrated Planning 

Model (IPM®). 

IPM is a dynamic linear optimization model that can be used to examine air pollution control 

policies for various pollutants throughout the contiguous U.S. for the entire electric power 

system. The dynamic nature of IPM enables the projection of the behavior of the power system 

over a specified future period. The optimization logic determines the least-cost means of 

meeting electric generation and capacity requirements while complying with specified 

constraints including air pollution regulations, transmission bottlenecks, and plant-specific 

operational constraints. The versatility of IPM allows users to specify which constraints to 

exercise and populate IPM with their own datasets. 

This report summarizes the analysis that ICF has performed in generating the future year 

electricity generating sector emission inventory by using IPM (hereafter, the analysis is referred 

to as the VISTAS analysis). The model assumptions and data used in this analysis are 

presented in Section B and the Appendix. The results are presented in Section C and the 

analysis limitations are presented in Section D. 

Since the modeling is based on the EPA’s prior analyses for which detailed public 

documentation is available, we have summarized only the incremental changes that were 

proposed by VISTAS and MRPO as part of this analysis. For detailed documentation on EPA’s 

prior modeling using IPM, please visit www.epa.gov/airmarkets/epa-ipm. 

B. Modeling Assumptions 

The VISTAS analysis is based on the USEPA Modeling Applications Using IPM (V.2.1.6). As 

per the analytical needs of VISTAS and MRPO, the following changes were made to the 

underlying assumptions in the US EPA Base Case (V2.1.6) in this analysis:

i) The underlying database in the VISTAS analysis is US EPA’s National Electric Energy Data 

System (NEEDS1) NODA Database, with changes based upon the comments and technical 

directions from VISTAS and MRPO’s stakeholders. The changes focused on existing 

installations of NOx, SO2 and particulate matter (PM) controls, NOx emission rates, SO2

emission limits, capacity of existing units, heat rate and unit identifications of selected units in 

the VISTAS and MRPO regions. These changes are summarized in detail in Appendix 1.

 

1 The NEEDS database contains the existing and planned/committed unit data in EPA modeling 

applications of IPM. NEEDS includes basic geographic, operating, air emissions, and other data 

on these generating units. For data sources underlying NEEDS and description of fields as well 

as the documentation on EPA Modeling Applications Using IPM (V.2.1.6), please visit website 

http://www.epa.gov/airmarkets/epa-ipm/index.html
ii) The analysis covers the period between 2007 and 2030. To make the model size and run 

time tractable, IPM is run for a number of selected years within the study horizon known as run 

years. Each run year represents several calendar years in the study horizon, and all calendar 

years within the study horizon are mapped to their representative run years. Although results 

are only reported for the run years, IPM takes into account all years in the study horizon while 

developing the projections. Table 1 summarizes the mapping between the run years and the 

calendar years. Model results are available for all run years; the last run year (2026) results are,

however, not recommended to be used because of end-year effects.

Table 1: IPM Run Years 

Run Year Calendar Years

2007 2007-2007

2009 2008-2009

2010 2010-2012

2015 2013-2017

2018 2018-2018

2020 2019-2022

2026 2023-2030

iii) The Duke Power and Progress Energy SO2 and NOx control technology investment 

strategies for complying with North Carolina’s Clean Smokestacks Rule were explicitly 

hardwired in the analysis.

iv) The CAIR rule implemented as part of this analysis is broadly consistent with the 

Environmental Protection Agency 40 CFR Parts 51, et al. Supplemental Proposal for the Rule to 

Reduce Interstate Transport of Fine Particulate Matter and Ozone (Clean Air Interstate Rule), 

proposed on June 10, 2004. Alabama, Arkansas, Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, 

Georgia, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Massachusetts, 

Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, New Jersey, New York, North Carolina, Ohio, 

Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, West Virginia, Wisconsin are the 

states affected by the CAIR SO2 and the CAIR annual NOx policies starting 2010. Connecticut is 

affected by an ozone season NOx policy. The CAIR plants affected by the annual NOx policy are 

capped at 1.6 million tons starting 2010 and 1.33 million tons starting 2015. The power plants 

affected by the CAIR SO2 policy have to surrender 2 Title IV SO2 allowances for every ton of 

SO2 emitted starting 2010 and 3 Title IV SO2 allowances for every ton of SO2 emitted starting 

2015.
C. Analysis Results

ICF ran IPM under two future scenarios – Base Case and CAIR Case. The Base Case 

represents the current operation of the power system under currently known laws and 

regulations, including those that come into force in the study horizon. The CAIR Case is the 

Base Case with the proposed CAIR rule superimposed. The run results were parsed at the unit 

level for the 2009 and 2018 run years. Appendix 2 summarizes the SO2 and NOx emission 

results on a state level. The following paragraphs discuss the results from the two runs.

1. Emissions

Table 2 presents the emissions from the Base Case and the CAIR Case in the VISTAS analysis. 

Table 2: SO2 and NOx Emissions from the Electric Power Sector (Million Tons)

Base Case CAIR Case

2009 2018 2009 2018

CAIR Affected Region

SO2 9.1 8.2 5.3 4.1

NOx

*

2.9 3.0 2.8 1.4

VISTAS States 

SO2 3.44 2.96 2.28 1.42

NOx 1.09 1.09 1.07 0.44

Midwest RPO States

SO2 3.05 2.61 1.51 1.33

NOx 0.83 0.88 0.83 0.34

*Note: Excludes Connecticut

In the CAIR region, compared with the Base Case, SO2 emissions would be reduced by 3.8 

million tons in 2009 and by 4.1 million tons in 2018. The NOx emissions would be cut by 1.6 

million tons annually in 2018, compared with the Base Case.

Total projected state-level emissions for SO2 and NOx for both the Base Case and the CAIR 

Case are included in Tables A11, A12, A13, and A14 in the Appendix.

2. Projected Costs

For the proposed CAIR region, the analysis projects the annualized incremental cost for the US 

to be $2.1 billion in 2009 and $3.6 billion in 2018. This represents a 3.3% increase in production 

cost in 2009 and a 4.6% increase in 2018 over the base case. The production cost as projected 

by IPM includes the capital costs of new investment decisions, fuel costs and the operation and 

maintenance costs of power plants. The marginal costs of emission reductions (allowance 

prices) in the CAIR case are shown in Table 3. 
Table 3: Marginal Costs of Emission Reductions in CAIR Case (1999 $)

2009 2018

Marginal Cost ($/ton)

SO2 700 1,100

NOx 1,500 1,700

3. Projected Control Technology Retrofits

In the VISTAS analysis, the proposed CAIR policy requires the installation of an additional 67 

GW of SO2 scrubbers and an additional 35 GW of selective catalytic reduction (SCR) on existing 

coal capacity by 2018 (see Table 4). The pool of existing SCR’s that are used during the ozone 

season in the NOx SIP call region in the Base Case are allowed to operate year-round in the 

CAIR Case.

Table 4: Pollution Control Installations by Technology in 2018 (GW)

Technology

Base Case

(Cumulative)

CAIR Case 

(Cumulative)

Scrubber 19 86

SCR 33 67

4. Projected Generation Mix 

Table 5 shows the generation mix under the proposed CAIR policy. Coal-fired generation and 

natural gas-fired generation are projected to remain relatively unchanged due to the phased-in 

nature of the proposed CAIR.

Relative to the Base Case, in 2009, 2.7 GW of coal-fired capacity is projected to be uneconomic 

to maintain (approximately 1%) and 90 MW of coal-fired capacity is projected to repower to 

natural gas in the CAIR Case. 

Table 5: National Generation Mix (BkWh’s)

Generating Fuel 

Use

2009 2018

Base Case CAIR Case Base Case CAIR Case

Coal 2,115 2,072 2,219 2,154

Oil/Natural Gas 821 862 1,301 1,364

Other 1,197 1,197 1,196 1,194

5. Projected Coal Production for the Electric Power Sector 

Coal production for electricity generation is expected to increase with or without the proposed 

CAIR (Table 6). The reductions in emissions from the power sector will be met through the 

installation of pollution controls for SO2 and NOx. 
Table 6: Coal Production in the Electric Power Sector (Million Tons)

Supply

Area

2009 2018

Base Case CAIR Case Base Case CAIR Case

Appalachia 327 296 297 306

Interior 182 184 189 212

West 528 545 611 550

National 1,038 1,025 1,096 1,067

6. Projected Retail Electricity Prices 

National average retail electricity prices in the CAIR Case are projected to increase 2.4 percent 

in 2009 and 1.6 percent in 2018. Table 7 and Table 8 summarize the national and regional level 

retail electricity prices. These estimates were developed using the Retail Electricity Price Model. 

Table 7: National Average Retail Electricity Prices (1999 Mills/kWh)

Base Case CAIR Case Percent Change

2009 59.4 60.9 2.4%

2018 63.2 64.3 1.6%

Source: Retail Electricity Price Model as documented in 

http://www.epa.gov/clearskies/tech_sectiong.pdf

Retail electricity prices by NERC region are in Table 8

Table 8: Retail Electricity Prices by NERC Region (1999 Mills/kWh)

Power

Primary States Included

Base Case CAIR Case

Region 2009 2018 2009 2018

ECAR OH,MI,IN,KY,WV,PA 51.3 56.7 53.8 58.7

ERCOT TX 53.0 65.0 54.8 65.3

MAAC PA,NJ,MD,DC,DE 56.9 69.3 59.5 71.6

MAIN IL,MO,WI 51.9 60.3 53.6 61.7

MAPP MN,IA,SD,ND,NE 54.6 49.4 54.7 49.8

NY NY 80.0 88.1 81.8 89.6

NE VT,NH,ME,MA,CT,RI 73.8 82.8 75.4 83.5

FRCC FL 70.8 68.8 71.7 69.6

STV VA,NC,SC,GA,AL,MS,TN,AR,LA 56.4 54.1 57.4 55.3

SPP KS,OK,MO 52.8 57.4 53.7 58.0

PNW WA,OR,ID 50.1 48.0 50.6 48.0

RM MT,WY,CO,UT,NM,AZ,NV,ID 61.5 65.1 62.1 65.2

CALI CA 96.8 98.2 97.6 98.3

Source: Retail Electricity Price Model as documented in 

http://www.epa.gov/clearskies/tech_sectiong.pdf

7. Projected Fuel Price Impacts 

The impacts of the CAIR on mine mouth coal prices and natural gas prices at the Henry Hub are 

summarized in Table 9. 
Table 9: Average Coal Mine Mouth and Henry Hub Natural Gas Prices (1999$/MMBtu)

Fuel

Base Case CAIR Case

2009 2018 2009 2018

Coal 0.62 0.55 0.60 0.55

Natural Gas 2.77 2.97 2.9 2.99

D. Limitations of Analysis 

VISTAS modeling using IPM is based on various economic and engineering input assumptions 

that are inherently uncertain, such as assumptions for future fuel prices, electricity demand 

growth and the cost and performance of control technologies. As configured, IPM does not take 

into account demand response (i.e., consumer reaction to changes in electricity prices). 
E. Appendix 

1. Changes made to the NEEDS NODA Database for the VISTAS Analysis

NEEDS NODA is the most recent version of the NEEDS database that EPA has made public. It 

contains existing and planned/committed generation unit data in the contiguous United States. 

In Appendix 1, the changes suggested by VISTAS and MRPO stakeholders are presented side 

by side against the values in the original NEEDS NODA for comparison. For description of the 

items changed, please visit website http://www.epa.gov/airmarkets/epa-ipm/index.html.
Table A1 Changes made to NOx Post Combustion Control Installations on Existing Units

Plant Name Unique ID Post Combustion 

NOx Control

(NEEDS NODA)

Post Combustion 

NOx Control 

(VISTAS)

Data Source*

ASHEVILLE 2706_B_1 SNCR None Progress Energy **

BARRY 3_B_1 SNCR None Southern Company

BARRY 3_B_2 SNCR None Southern Company

BARRY 3_B_3 SNCR None Southern Company

BARRY 3_B_4 SNCR None Southern Company

Barry 3_G_A1 None SCR Southern Company

Barry 3_G_A2ST None SCR Southern Company

MT STORM 3954_B_3 None SCR NC-WV-SC

PLEASANTS 6004_B_1 None SCR NC-WV-SC

PLEASANTS 6004_B_2 None SCR NC-WV-SC

Victor J Daniel Jr 6073_G_3 None SCR Southern Company

Victor J Daniel Jr 6073_G_3CT None SCR Southern Company

Victor J Daniel Jr 6073_G_4CT None SCR Southern Company

* Data Source shows the names of sheets in NEEDS-NODA-VISTAS-Aug18Rev.xls, provided by Gregory Stella, 

VISTAS Technical Advisor for Emissions Inventories.

** Progress Energy Compliance Plan for NC Clean Smokestacks Rule shows the existing NOx control as AEFLGR

and not SNCR.
Table A2 Changes made to NOx Emission Rates (lbs/MMBtu)

Plant Name Unique ID

Mode1 

Rate**

(VISTAS)

Mode2 

Rate**

(VISTAS)

Mode3 

Rate**

(VISTAS)

Mode4 

Rate**

(VISTAS) Data Source*

GREENE COUNTY 10_B_1 0.718 0.718 0.468 0.468 Southern Company

GREENE COUNTY 10_B_2 0.416 0.416 0.380 0.380 Southern Company

Greene County 10_G_GT10 0.090 0.090 0.090 0.090 Southern Company

Greene County 10_G_GT2 0.090 0.090 0.090 0.090 Southern Company

Greene County 10_G_GT3 0.090 0.090 0.090 0.090 Southern Company

Greene County 10_G_GT4 0.090 0.090 0.090 0.090 Southern Company

Greene County 10_G_GT5 0.090 0.090 0.090 0.090 Southern Company

Greene County 10_G_GT6 0.090 0.090 0.090 0.090 Southern Company

Greene County 10_G_GT7 0.090 0.090 0.090 0.090 Southern Company

Greene County 10_G_GT8 0.090 0.090 0.090 0.090 Southern Company

Greene County 10_G_GT9 0.090 0.090 0.090 0.090 Southern Company

CROSS 130_B_1 0.100 0.100 0.100 0.100 SC

CROSS 130_B_2 0.100 0.100 0.100 0.100 SC

EATON 2046_B_1 0.280 0.280 0.280 0.280 Southern Company

EATON 2046_B_2 0.280 0.280 0.280 0.280 Southern Company

EATON 2046_B_3 0.280 0.280 0.280 0.280 Southern Company

Chevron Oil 2047_G_1 0.320 0.320 0.320 0.320 Southern Company

Chevron Oil 2047_G_2 0.320 0.320 0.320 0.320 Southern Company

Chevron Oil 2047_G_3 0.320 0.320 0.320 0.320 Southern Company

Chevron Oil 2047_G_4 0.320 0.320 0.320 0.320 Southern Company

Chevron Oil 2047_G_5 0.064 0.064 0.064 0.064 Southern Company

SWEATT 2048_B_1 0.280 0.280 0.280 0.280 Southern Company

SWEATT 2048_B_2 0.280 0.280 0.280 0.280 Southern Company

Sweatt 2048_G_A 0.320 0.320 0.320 0.320 Southern Company

JACK WATSON 2049_B_1 0.280 0.280 0.280 0.280 Southern Company

JACK WATSON 2049_B_2 0.280 0.280 0.280 0.280 Southern Company

JACK WATSON 2049_B_3 0.280 0.280 0.280 0.280 Southern Company

JACK WATSON 2049_B_4 0.470 0.470 0.415 0.415 Southern Company

JACK WATSON 2049_B_5 0.590 0.590 0.415 0.415 Southern Company

Jack Watson 2049_G_A 0.880 0.880 0.880 0.880 Southern Company

E C GASTON 26_B_1 0.473 0.473 0.473 0.473 Southern Company

E C GASTON 26_B_2 0.473 0.473 0.473 0.473 Southern Company

E C GASTON 26_B_3 0.457 0.457 0.457 0.457 Southern Company

E C GASTON 26_B_4 0.457 0.457 0.457 0.457 Southern Company

E C GASTON 26_B_5 0.429 0.060 0.429 0.060 Southern Company

E C Gaston 26_G_GT4 0.880 0.880 0.880 0.880 Southern Company

ASHEVILLE 2706_B_1 0.491 0.319 0.491 0.319 -

CLIFFSIDE 2721_B_5 0.294 0.070 0.294 0.070 NC-WV-SC

BARRY 3_B_1 0.500 0.500 0.500 0.500 Southern Company

BARRY 3_B_2 0.500 0.500 0.500 0.500 Southern Company

BARRY 3_B_3 0.300 0.300 0.300 0.300 Southern Company

BARRY 3_B_4 0.290 0.290 0.290 0.290 Southern Company

BARRY 3_B_5 0.380 0.380 0.380 0.380 Southern Company

Barry 3_G_A1 0.013 0.013 0.013 0.013 Southern Company

Barry 3_G_A1CT 0.013 0.013 0.013 0.013 Southern Company

Barry 3_G_A1ST 0.013 0.013 0.013 0.013 Southern Company

Barry 3_G_A2C1 0.013 0.013 0.013 0.013 Southern Company

Barry 3_G_A2C2 0.013 0.013 0.013 0.013 Southern Company

Barry 3_G_A2ST 0.013 0.013 0.013 0.013 Southern Company

W S LEE 3264_B_1 0.393 0.393 0.250 0.250 NC-WV-SC

W S LEE 3264_B_2 0.415 0.415 0.250 0.250 NC-WV-SC

W S Lee 3264_G_4 0.320 0.320 0.320 0.320 SC

W S Lee 3264_G_5 0.320 0.320 0.320 0.320 SC

W S Lee 3264_G_6 0.320 0.320 0.320 0.320 SC

MCMEEKIN 3287_B_MC 0.350 0.350 0.350 0.350 SC
Plant Name Unique ID

Mode1 

Rate**

(VISTAS)

Mode2 

Rate**

(VISTAS)

Mode3 

Rate**

(VISTAS)

Mode4 

Rate**

(VISTAS) Data Source*

M1

MCMEEKIN

3287_B_MC

M2 0.350 0.350 0.350 0.350 SC

MT STORM 3954_B_3 0.604 0.060 0.604 0.060 NC-WV-SC

JAMES H MILLER JR 6002_B_1 0.275 0.060 0.275 0.060 Southern Company

JAMES H MILLER JR 6002_B_2 0.247 0.060 0.247 0.060 Southern Company

JAMES H MILLER JR 6002_B_3 0.306 0.070 0.306 0.070 Southern Company

JAMES H MILLER JR 6002_B_4 0.275 0.070 0.275 0.070 Southern Company

PLEASANTS 6004_B_1 0.302 0.060 0.302 0.060 NC-WV-SC

PLEASANTS 6004_B_2 0.335 0.060 0.335 0.060 NC-WV-SC

WANSLEY 6052_B_1 0.405 0.070 0.405 0.070 Southern Company

WANSLEY 6052_B_2 0.390 0.070 0.390 0.070 Southern Company

Wansley 6052_G_5A 0.880 0.880 0.880 0.880 Southern Company

VICTOR J DANIEL JR. 6073_B_1 0.310 0.310 0.310 0.310 Southern Company

VICTOR J DANIEL JR. 6073_B_2 0.350 0.350 0.350 0.350 Southern Company

Victor J Daniel Jr 6073_G_3 0.013 0.013 0.013 0.013 Southern Company

Victor J Daniel Jr

6073_G_3C

T 0.013 0.013 0.013 0.013 Southern Company

Victor J Daniel Jr

6073_G_3S

T 0.013 0.013 0.013 0.013 Southern Company

Victor J Daniel Jr 6073_G_4 0.013 0.013 0.013 0.013 Southern Company

Victor J Daniel Jr

6073_G_4C

T 0.013 0.013 0.013 0.013 Southern Company

Victor J Daniel Jr

6073_G_4S

T 0.013 0.013 0.013 0.013 Southern Company

MCINTOSH 6124_B_1 0.613 0.613 0.410 0.410 Southern Company

McIntosh

6124_G_CT

1 0.090 0.090 0.090 0.090 Southern Company

McIntosh

6124_G_CT

2 0.090 0.090 0.090 0.090 Southern Company

McIntosh

6124_G_CT

3 0.090 0.090 0.090 0.090 Southern Company

McIntosh

6124_G_CT

4 0.090 0.090 0.090 0.090 Southern Company

McIntosh

6124_G_CT

5 0.090 0.090 0.090 0.090 Southern Company

McIntosh

6124_G_CT

6 0.090 0.090 0.090 0.090 Southern Company

McIntosh

6124_G_CT

7 0.090 0.090 0.090 0.090 Southern Company

McIntosh

6124_G_CT

8 0.090 0.090 0.090 0.090 Southern Company

WINYAH 6249_B_1 0.100 0.100 0.100 0.100 SC

WINYAH 6249_B_2 0.120 0.120 0.120 0.120 SC

WINYAH 6249_B_3 0.120 0.120 0.120 0.120 SC

WINYAH 6249_B_4 0.120 0.120 0.120 0.120 SC

SCHERER 6257_B_1 0.450 0.450 0.150 0.150 Southern Company

SCHERER 6257_B_2 0.450 0.450 0.150 0.150 Southern Company

SCHERER 6257_B_3 0.300 0.300 0.150 0.150 Southern Company

SCHERER 6257_B_4 0.300 0.300 0.150 0.150 Southern Company

Wilson 6258_G_5A 0.880 0.880 0.880 0.880 Southern Company

Wilson 6258_G_5B 0.880 0.880 0.880 0.880 Southern Company

Wilson 6258_G_5C 0.880 0.880 0.880 0.880 Southern Company

Wilson 6258_G_5D 0.880 0.880 0.880 0.880 Southern Company

Wilson 6258_G_5E 0.880 0.880 0.880 0.880 Southern Company

Wilson 6258_G_5F 0.880 0.880 0.880 0.880 Southern Company

Wilson 6258_G_IC1 0.880 0.880 0.880 0.880 Southern Company

CRIST 641_B_2 0.280 0.280 0.280 0.280 Southern Company

CRIST 641_B_3 0.280 0.280 0.280 0.280 Southern Company

CRIST 641_B_4 0.400 0.400 0.240 0.240 Southern Company
Plant Name Unique ID

Mode1 

Rate**

(VISTAS)

Mode2 

Rate**

(VISTAS)

Mode3 

Rate**

(VISTAS)

Mode4 

Rate**

(VISTAS) Data Source*

CRIST 641_B_5 0.400 0.400 0.240 0.240 Southern Company

CRIST 641_B_7 0.482 0.060 0.482 0.060 Southern Company

SCHOLZ 642_B_1 0.540 0.540 0.320 0.320 Southern Company

SCHOLZ 642_B_2 0.570 0.570 0.320 0.320 Southern Company

SMITH 643_B_1 0.490 0.490 0.240 0.240 Southern Company

SMITH 643_B_2 0.410 0.410 0.410 0.410 Southern Company

Lansing Smith 643_G_CT1 0.880 0.880 0.880 0.880 Southern Company

GADSDEN 7_B_1 0.544 0.544 0.544 0.544 Southern Company

GADSDEN 7_B_2 0.544 0.544 0.544 0.544 Southern Company

Atkinson 700_G_5A 0.320 0.320 0.320 0.320 Southern Company

Atkinson 700_G_5B 0.320 0.320 0.320 0.320 Southern Company

BOWEN

703_B_1BL

R 0.405 0.070 0.405 0.070 Southern Company

BOWEN

703_B_2BL

R 0.405 0.070 0.405 0.070 Southern Company

BOWEN

703_B_3BL

R 0.409 0.070 0.409 0.070 Southern Company

BOWEN

703_B_4BL

R 0.419 0.070 0.419 0.070 Southern Company

Bowen 703_G_6 0.880 0.880 0.880 0.880 Southern Company

HAMMOND 708_B_1 0.800 0.800 0.410 0.410 Southern Company

HAMMOND 708_B_2 0.800 0.800 0.410 0.410 Southern Company

HAMMOND 708_B_3 0.800 0.800 0.410 0.410 Southern Company

HAMMOND 708_B_4 0.404 0.070 0.404 0.070 Southern Company

HARLLEE BRANCH 709_B_1 0.800 0.800 0.519 0.519 Southern Company

HARLLEE BRANCH 709_B_2 0.800 0.800 0.374 0.374 Southern Company

HARLLEE BRANCH 709_B_3 0.800 0.800 0.381 0.381 Southern Company

HARLLEE BRANCH 709_B_4 0.800 0.800 0.381 0.381 Southern Company

JACK MCDONOUGH 710_B_MB1 0.450 0.450 0.230 0.230 Southern Company

JACK MCDONOUGH 710_B_MB2 0.450 0.450 0.230 0.230 Southern Company

Jack McDonough 710_G_3A 0.320 0.320 0.320 0.320 Southern Company

Jack McDonough 710_G_3B 0.320 0.320 0.320 0.320 Southern Company

MCMANUS 715_B_1 0.310 0.310 0.310 0.310 Southern Company

MCMANUS 715_B_2 0.310 0.310 0.310 0.310 Southern Company

McManus 715_G_3A 0.880 0.880 0.880 0.880 Southern Company

McManus 715_G_3B 0.880 0.880 0.880 0.880 Southern Company

McManus 715_G_3C 0.880 0.880 0.880 0.880 Southern Company

McManus 715_G_4A 0.880 0.880 0.880 0.880 Southern Company

McManus 715_G_4B 0.880 0.880 0.880 0.880 Southern Company

McManus 715_G_4C 0.880 0.880 0.880 0.880 Southern Company

McManus 715_G_4D 0.880 0.880 0.880 0.880 Southern Company

McManus 715_G_4E 0.880 0.880 0.880 0.880 Southern Company

McManus 715_G_4F 0.880 0.880 0.880 0.880 Southern Company

McManus 715_G_IC1 3.200 3.200 3.200 3.200 Southern Company

MITCHELL 727_B_3 0.625 0.625 0.625 0.625 Southern Company

Mitchell 727_G_4A 0.880 0.880 0.880 0.880 Southern Company

Mitchell 727_G_4B 0.880 0.880 0.880 0.880 Southern Company

Mitchell 727_G_4C 0.880 0.880 0.880 0.880 Southern Company

* Data Source shows the names of sheets in NEEDS-NODA-VISTAS-Aug18Rev.xls, provided by Gregory Stella, 

VISTAS Technical Advisor for Emissions Inventories. “SC” reflects the spreadsheet CopyofSCIPMdata.xls. Rate 

changes include VISTAS interpretation of stakeholder submitted data.

** 

Mode 1 Rate (Uncontrolled Base Rate) – This emission rate reflects current configuration of combustion 

controls. If a post combustion NOx control such as a SCR or a SNCR exists, it is assumed that it is not 

operating.

Mode 2 Rate (Controlled Base Rate) – This emission rate reflects current configuration of combustion

controls. If a post combustion NOx control such as a SCR or a SNCR exists, it is assumed that it is 

operating.
Mode 3 Rate (Uncontrolled Policy Rate) – This emission rate reflects a state of the art configuration of 

combustion controls. If a post combustion NOx control such as a SCR or a SNCR exists, it is assumed 

that it is not operating.

Mode 4 Rate (Controlled Policy Rate) – This emission rate reflects a state of the art configuration of 

combustion controls. If a post combustion NOx control such as a SCR or a SNCR exists, it is assumed 

that it is operating.

For more details on the development of these rates please refer to 

http://www.epa.gov/airmarkets/epa-ipm/section3powsysop.pdf
Table A3 Changes made to SO2 Scrubber Installations on Existing Units

Plant Name Unique ID Wet/DryScrubber

(NEEDS NODA)

Wet/DryScrubber

(VISTAS)

Data Source*

NORTH BRANCH POWER 

STATION

7537_B_1A Dry Scrubber - NC-WV-SC 

NORTH BRANCH POWER 

STATION

7537_B_1B Dry Scrubber - NC-WV-SC 

Morgantown Energy Facility 10743_G_GEN1 Dry Scrubber - NC-WV-SC 

* Data Source shows the name of sheets in NEEDS-NODA-VISTAS-Aug18Rev.xls, provided by Gregory Stella, 

VISTAS Technical Advisor for Emissions Inventories.
Table A4 Changes made to SO2 Emission Rate Limits (lbs/MMBtu)

Plant Name Unique ID SO2 Rate (NEEDS 

NODA)

SO2 Rate (VISTAS) Data Source*

GREENE COUNTY 10_B_1 4.000 1.197 Southern Company

GREENE COUNTY 10_B_2 4.000 1.197 Southern Company

EATON 2046_B_1 4.800 0.001 Southern Company

EATON 2046_B_2 4.800 0.001 Southern Company

EATON 2046_B_3 4.800 0.001 Southern Company

SWEATT 2048_B_1 4.800 0.001 Southern Company

SWEATT 2048_B_2 4.800 0.001 Southern Company

JACK WATSON 2049_B_1 4.800 0.001 Southern Company

JACK WATSON 2049_B_2 4.800 0.001 Southern Company

JACK WATSON 2049_B_3 4.800 0.001 Southern Company

JACK WATSON 2049_B_4 4.800 0.885 Southern Company

JACK WATSON 2049_B_5 4.800 0.885 Southern Company

E C GASTON 26_B_1 3.800 1.667 Southern Company

E C GASTON 26_B_2 3.800 1.667 Southern Company

E C GASTON 26_B_3 3.800 1.667 Southern Company

E C GASTON 26_B_4 3.800 1.667 Southern Company

E C GASTON 26_B_5 3.800 1.667 Southern Company

BUCK 2720_B_5 2.300 1.630 NC-WV-SC

BUCK 2720_B_6 2.300 1.630 NC-WV-SC

BUCK 2720_B_7 2.300 1.630 NC-WV-SC

BUCK 2720_B_8 2.300 1.630 NC-WV-SC

BUCK 2720_B_9 2.300 1.630 NC-WV-SC

CLIFFSIDE 2721_B_1 2.300 2.200 NC-WV-SC

CLIFFSIDE 2721_B_2 2.300 2.200 NC-WV-SC

CLIFFSIDE 2721_B_3 2.300 2.200 NC-WV-SC

CLIFFSIDE 2721_B_4 2.300 2.200 NC-WV-SC

CLIFFSIDE 2721_B_5 2.300 2.200 NC-WV-SC

DAN RIVER 2723_B_1 2.300 1.810 NC-WV-SC

DAN RIVER 2723_B_2 2.300 1.810 NC-WV-SC

DAN RIVER 2723_B_3 2.300 1.810 NC-WV-SC

BARRY 3_B_1 1.800 1.197 Southern Company

BARRY 3_B_2 1.800 1.197 Southern Company

BARRY 3_B_3 1.800 1.197 Southern Company

BARRY 3_B_4 1.800 1.197 Southern Company

BARRY 3_B_5 1.800 1.197 Southern Company

JAMES H MILLER JR 6002_B_1 1.800 0.795 Southern Company

JAMES H MILLER JR 6002_B_2 1.800 0.795 Southern Company

JAMES H MILLER JR 6002_B_3 1.800 0.795 Southern Company

JAMES H MILLER JR 6002_B_4 1.800 0.795 Southern Company

VICTOR J DANIEL JR. 6073_B_1 4.800 0.885 Southern Company

VICTOR J DANIEL JR. 6073_B_2 4.800 0.885 Southern Company

SCHERER 6257_B_1 1.200 0.796 Southern Company

SCHERER 6257_B_2 1.200 0.796 Southern Company

SCHERER 6257_B_3 1.200 0.796 Southern Company

SCHERER 6257_B_4 1.200 0.796 Southern Company

CRIST 641_B_2 0.740 0.001 Southern Company
Plant Name Unique ID SO2 Rate (NEEDS 

NODA)

SO2 Rate (VISTAS) Data Source*

CRIST 641_B_3 0.740 0.001 Southern Company

CRIST 641_B_4 5.900 1.197 Southern Company

CRIST 641_B_5 5.900 1.197 Southern Company

CRIST 641_B_6 5.900 1.197 Southern Company

CRIST 641_B_7 5.900 1.197 Southern Company

SCHOLZ 642_B_1 6.170 1.200 Southern Company

SCHOLZ 642_B_2 6.170 1.200 Southern Company

SMITH 643_B_1 6.170 1.197 Southern Company

SMITH 643_B_2 6.170 1.197 Southern Company

GADSDEN 7_B_1 4.000 2.500 Southern Company

GADSDEN 7_B_2 4.000 2.500 Southern Company

BOWEN 703_B_1BLR 4.580 1.667 Southern Company

HAMMOND 708_B_1 4.580 1.667 Southern Company

HAMMOND 708_B_2 4.580 1.667 Southern Company

HAMMOND 708_B_3 4.580 1.667 Southern Company

HAMMOND 708_B_4 4.580 1.667 Southern Company

HARLLEE BRANCH 709_B_1 4.580 1.667 Southern Company

HARLLEE BRANCH 709_B_2 4.580 1.667 Southern Company

HARLLEE BRANCH 709_B_3 4.580 1.667 Southern Company

HARLLEE BRANCH 709_B_4 4.580 1.667 Southern Company

JACK MCDONOUGH 710_B_MB1 4.580 1.667 Southern Company

JACK MCDONOUGH 710_B_MB2 4.580 1.667 Southern Company

MCMANUS 715_B_1 3.159 2.620 Southern Company

MCMANUS 715_B_2 3.159 2.620 Southern Company

MITCHELL 727_B_3 4.580 2.500 Southern Company

YATES 728_B_Y2BR 4.580 1.667 Southern Company

YATES 728_B_Y3BR 4.580 1.667 Southern Company

YATES 728_B_Y4BR 4.580 1.667 Southern Company

YATES 728_B_Y5BR 4.580 1.667 Southern Company

KRAFT 733_B_1 4.580 1.270 Southern Company

KRAFT 733_B_2 4.580 1.270 Southern Company

KRAFT 733_B_3 4.580 1.270 Southern Company

KRAFT 733_B_4 0.800 0.001 Southern Company

RIVERSIDE 734_B_11 2.632 0.001 Southern Company

RIVERSIDE 734_B_12 3.159 0.001 Southern Company

RIVERSIDE 734_B_4 2.632 0.001 Southern Company

RIVERSIDE 734_B_5 2.632 0.001 Southern Company

RIVERSIDE 734_B_6 2.632 0.001 Southern Company

GORGAS 8_B_10 4.000 1.667 Southern Company

GORGAS 8_B_6 4.000 2.500 Southern Company

GORGAS 8_B_7 4.000 2.500 Southern Company

GORGAS 8_B_8 4.000 1.667 Southern Company

GORGAS 8_B_9 4.000 1.667 Southern Company

 Data Source shows the names of sheets in NEEDS-NODA-VISTAS-Aug18Rev.xls, provided by Gregory Stella, VISTAS 

Technical Advisor for Emissions Inventories.
Table A5 Changes made to Particulate Matter (PM) Control Installations on Existing Units

Plant Name Unique ID PM Control (NEEDS NODA) PM Control (VISTAS) Data Sources *

G G ALLEN 2718_B_3 Hot-side ESP Cold-side ESP NC-WV-SC

G G ALLEN 2718_B_5 Hot-side ESP Cold-side ESP NC-WV-SC

WESTON 4078_B_3 Hot-side ESP + Fabric Filter Fabric Filter Wisconsin

* Data Sources shows the name of sheets in NEEDS-NODA-VISTAS-Aug18Rev.xls, provided by Gregory Stella, 

VISTAS Technical Advisor for Emissions Inventories.
Table A6 Changes made to Summer Net Dependable Capacity (MW)

Plant Name Unique ID Capacity

(NEEDS NODA)

Capacity

(VISTAS)

Data Source*

VACA_SC_Combined Cycle 077_C_077 1317 807 SC 

CRIST 641_B_1 24 0 ** Southern Company

Lansing Smith A274_G_A274 500 530 Southern Company

Atkinson 700_G_5A 32 15.3 Southern Company

Atkinson 700_G_5B 32 15.3 Southern Company

Dahlberg 7709_G_10 75 80 Southern Company

Dahlberg 7709_G_9 75 80 Southern Company

FRANKLIN A7840_G_A331 570 630 Southern Company

Mill Creek A294_G_A294 320 326.8 NC-WV-SC

Mill Creek A295_G_A295 240 245.1 NC-WV-SC

Mill Creek A296_G_A296 80 81.7 NC-WV-SC

SCE&G Hardeeville 3286_C_2 170 SC

SCE&G Hardeeville 3286_C_3 170 SC

SCE&G Hardeeville 3286_C_4 170 SC

Cross 3 130_C_3 660 SC

* Data Source shows the name of sheets in NEEDS-NODA-VISTAS-Aug18Rev.xls, provided by Gregory Stella, 

VISTAS Technical Advisor for Emissions Inventories. “SC” reflects the spreadsheet CopyofSCIPMdata.xls.

** Zero capacity denotes that the unit was retired in 2002.
Table A7 Changes made to Heat Rate (Btu/kWh)

Plant Name Unique ID ORIS Code BGCI Unit ID Heat Rate

(NEEDS NODA)

Heat Rate 

(VISTAS)

Data Source*

ALLEN S KING 1915_B_1 1915 B 1 8879 9229 Minnesota

* Data Source shows the name of sheets in NEEDS-NODA-VISTAS-Aug18Rev.xls, provided by Gregory Stella, 

VISTAS Technical Advisor for Emissions Inventories.
Table A8 Changes made to Unit ID

Plant Name Unique ID ORIS Code BGCI Unit ID (NEEDS 

NODA)

Unit ID 

(VISTAS)

Data Source*

Talbot County Energy A397_G_A397 7916 G 397 1 Oglethorpe

Talbot County Energy A398_G_A398 7916 G 398 2 Oglethorpe

Talbot County Energy A399_G_A399 7916 G 399 3-4 Oglethorpe

Talbot County Energy A400_G_A400 7916 G 400 5-6 Oglethorpe

Mill Creek A294_G_A294 7981 G 294 1-4 NC-WV-SC

Mill Creek A295_G_A295 7981 G 295 5-7 NC-WV-SC

Mill Creek A296_G_A296 7981 G 296 8 NC-WV-SC

* Data Source shows the name of sheets in NEEDS-NODA-VISTAS-Aug18Rev.xls, provided by Gregory Stella, 

VISTAS Technical Advisor for Emissions Inventories.
Table A9 Duke and Progress Energy SO2 Control Plan for North Carolina Clean Smokestacks Rule

Unit Technology Operation Date Company

Asheville 1 Scrubber 2005 Progress Energy

Asheville 2 Scrubber 2006 Progress Energy

Cape Fear 5 Scrubber 2012 Progress Energy

Cape Fear 6 Scrubber 2011 Progress Energy

Mayo 1 Scrubber 2008 Progress Energy

Roxboro 1 Scrubber 2009 Progress Energy

Roxboro 2 Scrubber 2007 Progress Energy

Roxboro 3 Scrubber 2007 Progress Energy

Roxboro 4 Scrubber 2007 Progress Energy

Sutton 3 Scrubber 2012 Progress Energy

Allen 1 Scrubber 2011 Duke Power

Allen 2 Scrubber 2011 Duke Power

Allen 3 Scrubber 2011 Duke Power

Allen 4 Scrubber 2012 Duke Power

Allen 5 Scrubber 2012 Duke Power

Belews Creek 1 Scrubber 2008 Duke Power

Belews Creek 2 Scrubber 2008 Duke Power

Cliffside 5 Scrubber 2009 Duke Power

Marshall 1 Scrubber 2007 Duke Power

Marshall 2 Scrubber 2007 Duke Power

Marshall 3 Scrubber 2006 Duke Power

Marshall 4 Scrubber 2006 Duke Power

Source: Gregory Stella, VISTAS Technical Advisor for Emissions Inventories.
Table A10 Duke and Progress Energy NOx Control Plan for North Carolina Clean Smokestacks Rule

Unit Technology Operation Date Company

Asheville 1 SCR 2009 Progress Energy

Lee 2 ROFA 2007 Progress Energy

Lee 3 SCR 2010 Progress Energy

Sutton 2 ROFA 2006 Progress Energy

Allen 1 SNCR 2003 Duke Power

Allen 2 SNCR 2007 Duke Power

Allen 3 SNCR 2005 Duke Power

Allen 4 SNCR 2006 Duke Power

Allen 5 SNCR 2008 Duke Power

Belews Creek 1 SCR 2003 Duke Power

Belews Creek 2 SCR 2004 Duke Power

Buck 3 SNCR 2009 Duke Power

Buck 4 SNCR 2008 Duke Power

Buck 5 SNCR 2006 Duke Power

Buck 6 SNCR 2007 Duke Power

Cliffside 1 SNCR 2009 Duke Power

Cliffside 2 SNCR 2009 Duke Power

Cliffside 3 SNCR 2008 Duke Power

Cliffside 4 SNCR 2008 Duke Power

Cliffside 5 SCR 2002 Duke Power

Dan River 1 SNCR 2009 Duke Power

Dan River 2 SNCR 2009 Duke Power

Dan River 3 SNCR 2007 Duke Power

Marshall 1 SNCR 2007 Duke Power

Marshall 2 SNCR 2006 Duke Power

Marshall 3 SNCR 2005 Duke Power

Marshall 4 SNCR 2008 Duke Power

Riverbend 4 SNCR 2007 Duke Power

Riverbend 5 SNCR 2008 Duke Power

Riverbend 6 SNCR 2008 Duke Power

Riverbend 7 SNCR 2007 Duke Power

Source: Gregory Stella, VISTAS Technical Advisor for Emissions Inventories.
2. Emission Results

Tables A11, A12, A13 and A14 present the Base Case and the CAIR Case NOx and SO2 emissions by state and 

season in 2009 and 2018 run years.
Table A11 State Level Base Case NOx Emissions by Season (Thousand Tons)

NOx Emission 

(Base Case)

Winter Summer

2009 2018 2009 2018

CAIR Affected States

Alabama 97.93 100.12 34.06 34.89

Arkansas 23.92 24.68 19.73 19.96

District Of Columbia 0.00 0.03 0.00 0.05

Delaware 6.09 7.30 2.78 3.42

Florida 80.78 86.48 67.84 72.61

Georgia 92.95 94.65 38.95 34.29

Iowa 39.67 47.64 30.90 36.59

Illinois 101.87 119.29 27.74 37.91

Indiana 176.21 183.22 61.12 61.74

Kansas 46.35 50.19 36.58 39.32

Kentucky 131.21 132.43 47.76 49.80

Louisiana 27.55 28.46 22.92 23.26

Massachusetts 9.80 11.69 5.64 8.74

Maryland 48.93 50.40 9.07 9.88

Michigan 80.77 85.49 35.64 34.26

Minnesota 39.60 44.65 30.21 34.14

Missouri 84.20 86.01 33.32 30.67

Mississippi 20.98 21.97 17.68 18.21

North Carolina 40.99 39.94 25.74 24.73

New Jersey 10.93 13.57 4.76 5.79

New York 31.75 30.74 18.00 18.79

Ohio 221.12 234.60 50.99 47.99

Pennsylvania 139.63 144.99 58.57 54.52

South Carolina 33.44 35.53 17.06 19.70

Tennessee 88.26 88.30 18.75 24.15

Texas 91.74 91.77 92.76 102.30

Virginia 44.06 37.63 21.15 19.35

Wisconsin 44.08 44.81 35.52 35.59

West Virginia 146.12 147.16 27.86 23.37

Total 2,000.92 2,083.74 893.12 926.01

Non CAIR States

Arizona 43.51 45.10 35.05 35.71

California 21.46 18.71 13.13 12.91

Colorado 38.20 39.43 30.04 30.90

Connecticut 3.56 4.49 2.63 2.81

Idaho 0.85 0.76 0.65 0.34

Maine 1.03 1.04 0.81 0.82

Montana 21.40 21.42 16.92 17.01

North Dakota 39.97 39.97 31.67 31.67

Nebraska 27.26 27.49 21.75 21.96

New Hampshire 1.33 1.65 0.74 1.18

New Mexico 40.80 40.90 32.70 32.97

Nevada 18.94 21.12 10.94 16.55

Oklahoma 41.56 41.86 36.02 38.41
NOx Emission 

(Base Case)

Winter Summer

2009 2018 2009 2018

Oregon 7.54 7.79 5.89 6.07

Rhode Island 0.29 0.32 0.23 0.30

South Dakota 8.10 8.11 6.44 6.44

Utah 33.87 33.83 26.88 26.43

Vermont 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.02

Washington 16.48 14.94 12.19 11.79

Wyoming 45.24 45.24 35.93 35.93

Total 411.39 414.19 320.62 330.23

National Total 2,412.31 2,497.93 1,213.74 1,256.23
Table A12 State Level Base Case SO2 Emissions by Season (Thousand Tons)

SO2 Emission

(Base Case)

Winter Summer

2009 2018 2009 2018

CAIR Affected States

Alabama 279.95 209.76 185.64 165.55

Arkansas 45.95 45.95 36.49 36.49

District Of Columbia 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Delaware 22.94 26.88 15.11 17.45

Florida 122.20 120.04 97.19 95.45

Georgia 328.97 310.23 253.11 243.79

Iowa 86.91 101.85 66.32 78.32

Illinois 215.50 242.21 130.41 177.13

Indiana 434.76 300.46 291.49 228.01

Kansas 45.06 47.83 36.59 37.99

Kentucky 279.82 241.21 203.42 188.21

Louisiana 55.29 55.29 43.92 43.92

Massachusetts 9.55 10.21 2.21 6.86

Maryland 179.99 187.19 129.98 143.59

Michigan 219.48 227.46 160.86 177.17

Minnesota 52.19 53.20 39.47 39.43

Missouri 153.41 158.24 110.96 119.58

Mississippi 47.72 47.72 37.90 37.90

North Carolina 109.66 80.15 72.83 53.68

New Jersey 31.74 19.49 22.99 14.08

New York 100.81 89.14 48.13 53.50

Ohio 860.12 647.74 584.09 460.62

Pennsylvania 525.90 503.94 359.82 361.58

South Carolina 93.19 99.82 70.44 79.21

Tennessee 274.69 184.91 161.76 138.75

Texas 221.74 231.04 184.26 188.83

Virginia 133.86 103.85 87.09 77.75

Wisconsin 87.01 85.93 69.31 67.53

West Virginia 349.02 274.96 249.54 208.00

Total 5,367.45 4,706.71 3,751.31 3,540.37

Non CAIR States

Arizona 33.81 28.38 26.85 22.54

California 3.64 3.64 2.88 2.88

Colorado 51.13 51.13 40.59 40.61

Connecticut 3.62 3.62 2.85 2.85

Idaho 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02

Maine 3.01 3.01 2.42 2.42

Montana 11.32 12.90 8.95 10.28

North Dakota 74.59 74.54 58.98 58.94

Nebraska 39.52 39.92 31.48 31.63

New Hampshire 5.20 4.62 2.26 2.98

New Mexico 29.49 29.49 23.42 23.42

Nevada 12.09 13.32 6.14 10.25

Oklahoma 65.56 65.56 52.08 52.08
SO2 Emission

(Base Case)

Winter Summer

2009 2018 2009 2018

Oregon 5.67 5.67 4.50 4.50

Rhode Island 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

South Dakota 6.74 6.74 5.35 5.35

Utah 29.65 20.86 23.43 15.04

Vermont 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01

Washington 6.63 6.65 5.15 5.17

Wyoming 41.73 28.93 33.14 22.98

Total 423.46 399.05 330.53 313.96

National Total 5,790.90 5,105.76 4,081.84 3,854.33
Table A13 State Level CAIR Case NOx Emissions by Season (Thousand Tons)

NOx Emission

(CAIR Case)

Winter Summer

2009 2018 2009 2018

CAIR Affected States

Alabama 96.01 21.06 36.32 18.89

Arkansas 24.01 17.81 19.73 14.41

District Of Columbia 0.00 0.05 0.02 0.04

Delaware 4.92 3.86 0.92 3.01

Florida 80.05 30.71 67.84 28.83

Georgia 88.13 33.33 31.30 32.22

Iowa 39.36 23.69 30.64 16.83

Illinois 108.01 38.49 33.62 30.78

Indiana 174.47 49.88 64.17 37.28

Kansas 46.51 17.41 36.48 14.84

Kentucky 129.41 36.28 47.90 28.43

Louisiana 27.80 16.91 22.92 14.01

Massachusetts 10.03 8.38 6.43 6.23

Maryland 46.83 7.76 11.25 6.58

Michigan 80.25 39.64 35.94 30.88

Minnesota 40.35 21.80 30.79 17.02

Missouri 82.31 50.25 36.39 27.68

Mississippi 20.98 5.68 17.78 5.11

North Carolina 40.69 33.56 26.50 26.49

New Jersey 11.08 6.73 4.27 5.64

New York 25.18 22.18 19.25 17.99

Ohio 214.10 47.83 43.53 34.32

Pennsylvania 129.93 42.08 54.03 33.21

South Carolina 34.01 20.39 16.20 16.00

Tennessee 87.13 15.77 17.44 16.68

Texas 91.58 82.32 92.49 90.41

Virginia 39.54 23.15 23.53 17.15

Wisconsin 41.88 21.25 33.52 16.56

West Virginia 145.07 24.52 29.50 17.70

Total 1,959.60 762.79 890.73 625.24

Non CAIR States

Arizona 43.50 45.11 35.04 35.68

California 20.40 18.52 13.00 12.91

Colorado 38.14 39.55 30.05 30.88

Connecticut 3.90 5.06 3.00 3.50

Idaho 0.85 0.78 0.65 0.34

Maine 1.03 1.08 0.76 0.85

Montana 21.40 21.42 16.98 17.01

North Dakota 38.73 39.97 29.27 31.76

Nebraska 27.43 27.52 21.83 22.08

New Hampshire 0.97 1.71 0.75 1.35

New Mexico 40.80 40.92 32.70 32.98

Nevada 19.96 22.36 11.06 17.60

Oklahoma 41.64 42.42 36.06 40.57
NOx Emission

(CAIR Case)

Winter Summer

2009 2018 2009 2018

Oregon 7.54 7.79 5.89 6.07

Rhode Island 0.29 0.34 0.21 0.30

South Dakota 8.10 8.11 6.44 6.45

Utah 33.87 33.83 26.86 26.43

Vermont 0.01 0.02 0.01 0.02

Washington 16.48 14.94 12.19 11.78

Wyoming 45.24 45.24 35.93 35.93

Total 410.29 416.69 318.68 334.51

National Total 2,369.89 1,179.48 1,209.41 959.75
Table A14 State Level CAIR Case SO2 Emissions by Season (Thousand Tons)

SO2 Emission

(CAIR Case)

Winter Summer

2009 2018 2009 2018

CAIR Affected States

Alabama 190.85 125.61 124.00 100.91

Arkansas 45.95 45.95 36.49 36.49

District Of Columbia 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Delaware 16.78 9.84 5.14 7.09

Florida 110.87 70.51 89.28 56.09

Georgia 244.73 117.05 149.70 104.56

Iowa 89.51 97.92 68.86 71.77

Illinois 141.81 149.61 93.99 113.51

Indiana 200.81 182.52 140.39 139.08

Kansas 44.63 40.60 35.76 32.84

Kentucky 197.05 127.58 145.63 98.20

Louisiana 34.59 18.80 27.47 14.93

Massachusetts 10.70 9.48 2.93 6.73

Maryland 41.64 14.40 25.23 10.01

Michigan 216.30 221.63 157.75 174.22

Minnesota 45.46 47.48 35.48 35.41

Missouri 148.86 151.22 110.16 118.11

Mississippi 47.72 28.96 37.90 23.00

North Carolina 80.70 41.41 51.49 36.93

New Jersey 19.09 11.35 15.17 8.65

New York 57.16 26.70 37.60 20.71

Ohio 259.36 122.94 144.93 88.31

Pennsylvania 128.67 74.04 77.16 57.49

South Carolina 85.48 85.74 58.09 66.81

Tennessee 168.50 53.32 111.44 50.29

Texas 216.76 195.36 178.90 159.08

Virginia 89.83 66.57 51.09 49.68

Wisconsin 83.88 78.63 66.32 62.03

West Virginia 154.15 64.86 92.70 47.07

Total 3,171.82 2,280.08 2,171.02 1,789.98

Non CAIR States

Arizona 33.81 28.38 26.85 22.54

California 3.64 3.64 2.88 2.88

Colorado 50.79 51.16 40.28 40.61

Connecticut 3.62 3.62 2.58 2.85

Idaho 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02

Maine 3.01 3.01 2.10 2.42

Montana 11.32 13.00 9.01 10.33

North Dakota 71.08 74.54 54.63 59.20

Nebraska 39.82 39.92 31.63 31.70

New Hampshire 0.92 4.47 0.70 3.52

New Mexico 29.49 29.49 23.42 23.42

Nevada 12.90 14.33 6.23 11.09

Oklahoma 65.56 65.56 52.08 52.08
SO2 Emission

(CAIR Case)

Winter Summer

2009 2018 2009 2018

Oregon 5.67 5.67 4.50 4.50

Rhode Island 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

South Dakota 6.74 6.74 5.35 5.35

Utah 29.65 20.86 23.35 15.04

Vermont 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01

Washington 6.11 6.65 4.80 5.17

Wyoming 39.68 28.93 31.52 22.98

Total 413.87 400.02 321.96 315.72

National Total 3,585.68 2,680.10 2,492.97 2,105.71
3. Generation Results

Tables A15 and A16 present the generation in the Base Case and the CAIR Case by state and season in 2009 and 

2018 run years.
Table A15 State Level Base Case Generation by Season (GWh)

Base Case Generation

Winter Summer

2009 2018 2009 2018

CAIR Affected States

Alabama 89,306 107,340 71,273 89,828

Arkansas 27,458 35,937 27,331 29,377

District Of Columbia - 70 - 113

Delaware 3,688 4,873 2,754 4,030

Florida 103,348 140,092 91,525 117,000

Georgia 93,099 103,667 73,028 86,929

Iowa 26,718 32,128 20,016 23,757

Illinois 111,860 120,671 79,329 91,331

Indiana 78,544 86,210 57,036 65,667

Kansas 26,507 27,819 21,332 22,583

Kentucky 61,480 62,605 46,396 48,451

Louisiana 35,891 48,346 35,855 38,090

Massachusetts 31,527 37,098 22,173 27,421

Maryland 31,487 33,118 22,747 26,002

Michigan 61,566 75,353 45,410 54,723

Minnesota 27,529 31,431 21,104 23,976

Missouri 51,304 54,766 38,644 42,737

Mississippi 20,631 32,250 24,165 29,593

North Carolina 72,173 77,731 54,210 58,315

New Jersey 31,669 38,312 26,922 29,698

New York 86,175 90,403 66,311 69,245

Ohio 98,345 111,448 69,610 80,018

Pennsylvania 129,591 140,974 93,686 101,509

South Carolina 57,536 66,909 47,731 54,364

Tennessee 57,630 59,073 40,526 43,453

Texas 175,132 192,596 176,889 210,649

Virginia 44,517 55,805 34,038 42,987

Wisconsin 37,353 40,072 29,408 31,217

West Virginia 60,407 61,029 45,922 47,604

Total 1,732,468 1,968,124 1,385,371 1,590,666

Non CAIR States

Arizona 68,796 84,020 58,556 66,427

California 153,862 193,482 115,891 148,755

Colorado 24,277 29,820 17,665 22,200

Connecticut 18,145 20,347 12,832 13,661

Idaho 6,535 6,859 5,123 4,814

Maine 4,510 4,554 3,259 3,284

Montana 14,651 15,017 11,972 12,277

North Dakota 15,999 15,999 12,683 12,688

Nebraska 17,523 17,985 14,926 15,717

New Hampshire 19,201 18,995 14,611 14,436

New Mexico 16,508 17,492 13,485 14,417

Nevada 21,432 24,996 15,590 20,097

Oklahoma 42,002 45,145 36,058 40,794
Base Case Generation

Winter Summer

2009 2018 2009 2018

Oregon 34,193 37,710 25,959 28,498

Rhode Island 2,822 3,045 1,865 2,474

South Dakota 5,103 5,116 4,200 4,210

Utah 18,558 18,525 14,807 14,561

Vermont 3,328 3,284 2,102 1,985

Washington 61,086 64,342 43,874 47,400

Wyoming 24,650 24,627 19,574 19,555

Total 573,182 651,360 445,030 508,249

National Total 2,305,650 2,619,484 1,830,401 2,098,915 
Table A16 State Level CAIR Case Generation by Season (GWh)

CAIR Case Generation

Winter Summer

2009 2018 2009 2018

CAIR Affected States

Alabama 94,570 114,813 74,254 91,185

Arkansas 28,520 38,336 27,342 30,538

District Of Columbia - 164 27 140

Delaware 4,109 4,888 1,395 3,816

Florida 103,047 134,673 91,525 114,079

Georgia 90,975 106,074 68,713 87,944

Iowa 26,654 32,155 20,160 22,069

Illinois 113,576 118,442 83,009 91,406

Indiana 77,812 85,811 59,219 64,105

Kansas 26,553 25,090 21,262 21,729

Kentucky 60,623 61,425 45,949 47,837

Louisiana 39,178 47,708 35,792 37,296

Massachusetts 32,086 35,865 22,315 26,056

Maryland 30,432 33,919 22,226 26,140

Michigan 61,409 77,361 45,712 55,464

Minnesota 28,657 31,549 22,190 24,725

Missouri 50,909 54,005 38,878 43,636

Mississippi 20,654 38,386 26,053 31,804

North Carolina 72,011 76,972 54,051 59,626

New Jersey 32,728 37,732 26,430 30,620

New York 86,621 90,452 67,306 70,406

Ohio 94,457 109,773 66,893 80,432

Pennsylvania 125,813 135,339 93,940 100,257

South Carolina 59,092 67,948 47,929 54,154

Tennessee 57,255 55,011 40,017 42,531

Texas 174,956 188,405 176,614 205,557

Virginia 42,300 55,560 34,556 41,982

Wisconsin 37,205 41,005 28,850 31,286

West Virginia 59,826 59,948 43,305 46,823

Total 1,732,029 1,958,806 1,385,910 1,583,642

Non CAIR States

Arizona 68,764 84,088 58,527 66,182

California 153,862 193,060 115,905 148,764

Colorado 23,897 29,789 17,750 22,086

Connecticut 17,851 20,146 12,783 13,817

Idaho 6,535 6,907 5,123 4,809

Maine 4,510 5,032 3,213 3,605

Montana 14,651 15,018 11,996 12,275

North Dakota 15,380 15,999 11,862 12,738

Nebraska 17,566 18,061 14,947 15,816

New Hampshire 18,921 19,856 14,663 15,201

New Mexico 16,514 17,636 13,485 14,519

Nevada 21,896 25,564 15,641 20,582

Oklahoma 42,459 50,227 36,383 45,539
CAIR Case Generation

Winter Summer

2009 2018 2009 2018

Oregon 34,193 37,678 25,959 28,474

Rhode Island 2,822 3,032 1,651 2,410

South Dakota 5,103 5,116 4,200 4,220

Utah 18,558 18,525 14,796 14,561

Vermont 3,328 3,446 2,102 2,096

Washington 61,086 64,281 43,874 47,356

Wyoming 24,650 24,627 19,574 19,555

Total 572,547 658,087 444,434 514,605

National Total 2,304,577 2,616,893 1,830,343 2,098,247
4. Cost Results

Tables A17, A18, A19 and A20 present the fixed operation and maintenance cost (FOM), variable operation and 

maintenance cost (VOM), fuel cost and the capital cost in the Base Case and the CAIR Case by IPM model region 

and season in 2009 and 2018 run years respectively.
Table A17 FOM Cost by IPM Model Region (Million 1999$)

FOM Cost by Region

Base Case CAIR Case

2009 2018 2009 2018

AZNM 999.8 1,173.9 999.8 1,173.9

CALI 1,399.3 1,767.7 1,397.1 1,767.6

DSNY 554.3 365.1 559.0 386.4

ECAO 3,163.2 3,282.9 3,310.1 3,583.2

ENTG 1,172.8 1,351.0 1,177.5 1,361.8

ERCT 1,905.2 2,084.9 1,905.2 2,097.9

FRCC 1,500.1 1,570.0 1,504.2 1,595.8

LILC 71.1 89.7 79.1 92.5

MACE 1,712.7 1,859.8 1,698.8 1,850.0

MACS 474.3 504.5 503.3 548.3

MACW 843.0 961.8 849.6 989.5

MANO 2,462.9 2,942.4 2,466.9 2,949.6

MAPP 1,282.3 1,352.2 1,276.4 1,347.3

MECS 525.5 625.8 525.5 631.5

NENG 1,230.3 1,246.7 1,233.3 1,247.1

NWPE 512.5 539.5 518.4 545.3

NYC 145.0 162.1 145.0 167.5

PNW 906.4 988.3 906.4 988.1

RMPA 295.2 305.0 295.5 305.3

SOU 1,490.9 1,674.5 1,510.6 1,777.1

SPPN 477.7 564.3 477.7 566.9

SPPS 651.9 715.0 656.3 722.2

TVA 1,380.2 1,469.9 1,384.2 1,508.4

UPNY 726.7 792.6 713.3 782.1

VACA 2,764.7 3,099.6 2,756.4 3,096.6

WUMS 461.8 494.1 461.8 495.5

National Total 29,109.7 31,983.2 29,311.5 32,577.6
Table A18 VOM Cost by IPM Model Region (Million 1999$)

VOM Cost by Region

Base Case CAIR Case

2009 2018 2009 2018

AZNM 301.4 349.7 301.3 349.7

CALI 525.1 677.9 523.7 677.6

DSNY 41.0 34.1 41.4 51.4

ECAO 1,218.5 1,316.6 1,378.1 1,883.4

ENTG 158.6 195.1 170.2 228.0

ERCT 493.4 602.5 492.9 621.6

FRCC 303.2 404.1 307.8 466.1

LILC 24.9 39.5 24.4 33.6

MACE 140.5 166.4 137.6 174.4

MACS 70.6 83.1 97.8 141.1

MACW 188.1 203.1 226.7 300.4

MANO 313.9 359.5 335.8 408.4

MAPP 306.1 337.8 309.5 353.1

MECS 146.3 181.0 145.8 211.6

NENG 174.5 205.0 176.8 205.3

NWPE 235.2 249.6 236.7 252.7

NYC 12.1 25.5 12.1 30.0

PNW 93.3 126.3 93.3 126.0

RMPA 117.5 128.0 117.2 127.9

SOU 409.5 512.1 431.8 720.1

SPPN 147.0 158.1 147.4 161.5

SPPS 201.2 231.2 204.0 242.3

TVA 286.2 312.0 290.1 400.3

UPNY 81.8 90.4 85.0 91.1

VACA 570.6 679.9 602.2 720.4

WUMS 110.0 138.3 111.4 143.2

National Total 6,670.4 7,807.0 7,001.0 9,121.3
Table A19 Fuel Cost by IPM Model Region (Million 1999$)

Fuel Cost by Region

Base Case CAIR Case

2009 2018 2009 2018

AZNM 2,231.5 2,884.8 2,296.0 2,912.2

CALI 3,804.4 5,249.7 3,883.0 5,266.9

DSNY 512.8 531.4 537.3 642.6

ECAO 5,452.7 6,207.7 5,346.3 5,844.2

ENTG 1,700.8 2,398.6 1,817.2 2,388.2

ERCT 4,950.1 5,835.0 5,121.9 5,812.3

FRCC 2,979.2 4,480.9 3,045.0 4,282.9

LILC 400.7 530.3 407.5 454.6

MACE 1,106.4 1,453.7 1,195.5 1,461.6

MACS 528.2 599.7 502.4 599.4

MACW 1,039.5 1,258.4 1,039.9 1,176.8

MANO 2,073.1 2,192.0 2,133.0 2,158.4

MAPP 1,560.0 1,666.6 1,561.8 1,676.2

MECS 1,070.6 1,322.5 1,075.2 1,434.1

NENG 1,868.1 2,291.3 1,915.8 2,297.8

NWPE 679.2 643.8 687.8 659.6

NYC 313.2 459.5 326.0 512.2

PNW 1,078.6 1,326.2 1,126.8 1,333.3

RMPA 429.3 596.2 426.8 595.4

SOU 3,933.6 5,195.6 4,146.3 5,399.1

SPPN 678.0 731.7 683.1 726.5

SPPS 1,908.5 2,197.0 1,952.0 2,287.2

TVA 1,633.0 1,868.4 1,675.8 1,972.9

UPNY 599.3 758.0 655.3 703.8

VACA 3,057.0 3,800.8 3,135.3 3,928.7

WUMS 625.4 748.5 632.9 732.9

National Total 46,213.0 57,228.2 47,325.9 57,259.8
Table A20 Capital Cost by IPM Model Region (Million 1999$)

Capital Cost by Region

Base Case CAIR Case

2009 2018 2009 2018

AZNM 0.0 114.8 0.0 114.8

CALI 375.3 1287.1 454.1 1290.4

DSNY 0.0 0.7 0.0 73.3

ECAO 97.2 226.9 505.9 1164.9

ENTG 3.3 4.4 10.3 36.7

ERCT 0.9 978.4 0.6 1029.3

FRCC 13.3 455.4 25.2 540.3

LILC 54.0 167.9 62.4 143.9

MACE 4.2 22.1 4.2 33.8

MACS 18.2 134.0 94.7 261.9

MACW 0.0 0.3 80.9 162.8

MANO 2.7 21.6 35.4 71.3

MAPP 52.9 52.9 52.9 68.7

MECS 0.0 212.4 0.0 237.9

NENG 76.3 160.0 87.3 163.9

NWPE 0.0 23.0 0.0 23.0

NYC 0.0 103.9 0.0 137.1

PNW 5.5 183.8 5.5 182.2

RMPA 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

SOU 4.6 412.9 55.5 770.0

SPPN 5.3 28.0 5.3 51.0

SPPS 0.0 142.9 12.2 171.8

TVA 0.0 10.4 11.8 135.2

UPNY 0.0 4.1 11.6 23.2

VACA 232.6 647.5 221.1 667.1

WUMS 10.3 138.8 10.2 149.8

National Total 956.6 5,534.2 1,747.2 7,704.1