Forecasting a Better Future

Ad Hoc Met Meeting, May 26-27, 2004

MM5 Sensitivity Modeling, Mainl

Support of VISTAS (Visibility 

Improvement State and Tribal Associat

the Southeast)

Don Olerud and Aaron Sims

Baron Advanced Meteorological System

c/o 

North Carolina Supercomputing Center

3021 Cornwallis Road, Research Triangle Park, NC, 

27709

Email: don.olerud@baronams.com

Phone: 919-248-9239
Forecasting a Better Future

Ad Hoc Met Meeting, May 26-27, 2004

Status at last ad hoc meeting . . .

O px-acm configuration

– Initial VISTAS setup

O P-X LSMO ACM PBLO RRTM radiationO Reisner 1 (mixed phase) microphysicsO KF2 clouds

– Based on prior RPO MM5 work

O Winter episode too cold

– Better results if interppx not used– px_acm2 became new basecase
Forecasting a Better Future

Ad Hoc Met Meeting, May 26-27, 2004

Since last ad hoc meeting . . .

O 4 main sensitivities

– px_acm(2)– noah_mrf– multi_blkdr– noah_eta-my

O 3 episodes

– Episode 1: Jan 2-20, 2002

O 00Z Dec 26, 2001 – 12Z Jan 21, 2002

– Episode 2: July 13-27, 2001

O 00Z Jul 6 – 12Z Jul 28, 2001

– Episode 3: July 13-21, 1999

O 00Z Jul 9 – 12Z Jul 22, 1999
Forecasting a Better Future

Ad Hoc Met Meeting, May 26-27, 2004
Forecasting a Better Future

Ad Hoc Met Meeting, May 26-27, 2004

4-panel plots

Available for all RPO region

– Temp (max, min, avg)– Mixing Ratio (avg, 18Z-21Z avg, 

avg)

– PBL (18Z-21Z avg, 07Z-10Z avg)– Wind Speed (18Z-21Z avg, 07Z-1– Relative Humidity (18Z-21Z avg, 

avg)

– Cloud Fraction (18Z-21Z avg, 07– Pcp (18Z-21Z avg, avg)
Forecasting a Better Future

Ad Hoc Met Meeting, May 26-27, 2004

Daytime PBL
Forecasting a Better Future

Ad Hoc Met Meeting, May 26-27, 2004

Nighttime PBL
Forecasting a Better Future

Ad Hoc Met Meeting, May 26-27, 2004

Temp Stats (Episode 1)
Forecasting a Better Future

Ad Hoc Met Meeting, May 26-27, 2004

Spatial Statistical Plots

O Station-specific statistical ranking

O px_acm, noah_mrf, multi_blkdr, noah_eta-my

O Best sensitivity displayedO Hourly (Composite UTC day), Total stat

available

O Bias, error, rmse (total only)O Warning: Possibly little difference betw

“best” and “worst” sensitivity
Forecasting a Better Future

Ad Hoc Met Meeting, May 26-27, 2004

T error episode 1
Forecasting a Better Future

Ad Hoc Met Meeting, May 26-27, 2004

T error episode 2
Forecasting a Better Future

Ad Hoc Met Meeting, May 26-27, 2004

Evaluation Summary

O px_acm2 statistically best overall

O Winds best in noah_eta-my, especially at nigh

(px_acm2 strong second best)

O Temps best in px_acm2, worst in noah_eta-my

O Significant differences in PBL heights 

(noah_mrf > px_acm > noah_eta-my)

O noah_eta-my produces more precip (spa

than the other schemes
Forecasting a Better Future

Ad Hoc Met Meeting, May 26-27, 2004

Composite GSO sounding
Forecasting a Better Future

Ad Hoc Met Meeting, May 26-27, 2004

Auxiliary Sensitivity Tests

O Limited analyses (statistical)O Full winter/summer episodic runsO Examines the following options

– P-X soil initializations– Cloud parameterizations (KF2, KF, Grell)– Radiation schemes (Surface, cloud, ccm, r– Nudging options (strength, 

thermodynamic nudging in pbl)

– Snow effects– Reisner 1 / Reisner 2 Microphysics– LITTLE_R vs RAWINS
Forecasting a Better Future

Ad Hoc Met Meeting, May 26-27, 2004

Winter Base Case (px_acm2) Stat

(Episode 1, US 36km)

Total stats bias abserr r2 ia rmse

Temperature (K) -1.14 2.30 0.879 0.963 3.0613 

Mixing Ratio (g/kg) 0.07 0.53 0.876 0.967 0.7673 

Rel. Humidity (%) 3.54 12.62 0.451 0.814 16.4208 

Wind Speed (m/s) -0.02 1.33 0.510 0.808 1.7307 

Clouds (%) -4.00 26.12 0.340 0.763 37.6462 Wind stats bias abserr uerr verr uverr

Wind (deg, m/s) 1.913 25.11 1.2520 1.2552 1.7729 

Pcp Threshold (in) Acc Bias FAR POD CSI ETS TSS 

0.01 0.8360 1.0061 0.2760 0.7284 0.5701 0.4379 0.6102 0.05 0.9038 1.1156 0.3204 0.7581 0.5585 0.4914 0.6898 0.10 0.9352 1.1405 0.3308 0.7632 0.5541 0.5115 0.7187 0.25 0.9703 1.0628 0.2959 0.7484 0.5693 0.5502 0.7309 0.50 0.9845 1.0006 0.3133 0.6872 0.5232 0.5140 0.6792 1.00 0.9940 0.8873 0.3833 0.5472 0.4083 0.4054 0.5446 
Forecasting a Better Future

Ad Hoc Met Meeting, May 26-27, 2004

Summer Base Case (px_acm2) Sta

(Episode 2, US 36km)

Total stats bias abserr r2 ia rmse

Temperature (K) -0.16 1.62 0.877 0.964 2.1443 

Mixing Ratio (g/kg) -0.17 1.47 0.809 0.947 1.9714 

Rel. Humidity (%) -0.28 9.78 0.672 0.904 13.0680 

Wind Speed (m/s) -0.20 1.24 0.429 0.772 1.6149 

Clouds (%) 1.38 27.52 0.134 0.635 37.9526 Wind stats bias abserr uerr verr uverr

Wind (deg, m/s) 2.010 32.37 1.2469 1.3037 1.8040 

Pcp Threshold (in) Acc Bias FAR POD CSI ETS TSS 

0.01 0.7375 0.8822 0.2501 0.6616 0.5420 0.3067 0.4660.05 0.7578 1.0815 0.4105 0.6376 0.4415 0.2794 0.4470.10 0.7807 1.2392 0.5089 0.6085 0.3732 0.2511 0.4360.25 0.8387 1.5406 0.6509 0.5378 0.2685 0.2008 0.4130.50 0.9052 1.6829 0.7565 0.4098 0.1803 0.1482 0.3411.00 0.9715 1.5577 0.8696 0.2030 0.0862 0.0782 0.184
Forecasting a Better Future

Ad Hoc Met Meeting, May 26-27, 2004

Cross Sensitivity Stat Tables

O px_acm2 is normally the base caseO Stat differences are tabulated and colorcoded

– Green means the sensitivity being tested 

performs better; red means worse

– Differences are calculated from optimum v

O If IA (base) is 0.95, and IA (test) is 0.90, then 

would be plotted in red. If IA (test) were 0.97then 0.02 would be plotted in green.

O If precip bias (base) is 0.90 and precip bias 

is 1.08, then 0.02 would be plotted in green.
Forecasting a Better Future

Ad Hoc Met Meeting, May 26-27, 2004

Winter px_acm stats (Episode 1, US 36

Total stats bias abserr r2 ia rmse

Temperature (K) -0.92 -0.60 -0.021 -0.017 -0.6456 

Mixing Ratio (g/kg) -0.01 0.00 -0.002 -0.001 0.0023 

Rel. Humidity (%) 0.26 -0.08 -0.017 -0.006 -0.1239 

Wind Speed (m/s) -0.02 -0.03 -0.022 -0.015 -0.0392 

Clouds (%) -0.23 0.12 0.002 0.001 0.0373 Wind stats bias abserr uerr verr uverr

Wind (deg, m/s) 0.424 -0.06 -0.0205 -0.0178 -0.0270 

Pcp Threshold (in) Acc Bias FAR POD CSI ETS 

0.01 0.0035 -0.0140 0.0120 -0.0073 0.0028 0.0057 0.05 0.0023 0.0235 0.0104 -0.0045 0.0045 0.0057 0.10 0.0014 0.0238 0.0097 -0.0051 0.0039 0.0045 0.25 0.0006 0.0221 0.0103 -0.0049 0.0039 0.0042 0.50 0.0000 -0.0111 0.0030 -0.0056 -0.0016 -0.0015 1.00 0.0000 -0.0051 -0.0010 -0.0041 -0.0027 -0.0028 
Forecasting a Better Future

Ad Hoc Met Meeting, May 26-27, 2004

Summer px_acm stats (Episode 2, US 3

Total stats bias abserr r2 ia rmse

Temperature (K) 0.04 0.05 0.004 0.002 0.0393 

Mixing Ratio (g/kg) -0.24 -0.04 0.003 -0.002 -0.0335 

Rel. Humidity (%) -1.56 -0.13 -0.003 -0.002 -0.2838 

Wind Speed (m/s) 0.02 0.00 -0.001 0.000 -0.0004 

Clouds (%) 0.06 -0.07 -0.002 -0.002 -0.0969 Wind stats bias abserr uerr verr uverr

Wind (deg, m/s) -0.074 0.07 -0.0015 -0.0012 -0.0019 

Pcp Threshold (in) Acc Bias FAR POD CSI ETS 

0.01 0.0026 -0.0124 0.0068 -0.0034 0.0012 0.0043 0.05 0.0031 0.0170 0.0063 -0.0034 0.0019 0.0038 0.10 0.0032 0.0169 0.0059 -0.0010 0.0030 0.0042 0.25 0.0032 0.0281 0.0066 0.0002 0.0040 0.0047 0.50 0.0014 0.0371 0.0027 -0.0047 0.0005 0.0008 1.00 0.0004 0.0356 0.0006 -0.0036 -0.0003 -0.0003 
Forecasting a Better Future

Ad Hoc Met Meeting, May 26-27, 2004

Winter noah_mrf stats (Episode 1, US 3

Total stats bias abserr r2 ia rmse

Temperature (K) -0.14 -0.17 -0.012 -0.005 -0.1357 

Mixing Ratio (g/kg) 0.01 0.04 0.009 0.002 0.0382 

Rel. Humidity (%) -0.40 0.22 0.006 0.000 0.3528 

Wind Speed (m/s) -0.13 -0.02 0.001 0.025 -0.0283 

Clouds (%) -2.68 -1.58 -0.042 -0.029 -1.4727 Wind stats bias abserr uerr verr uverr

Wind (deg, m/s) -2.704 -0.27 -0.0108 -0.0156 -0.0187 

Pcp Threshold (in) Acc Bias FAR POD CSI ET

0.01 -0.0153 -0.0554 -0.0359 0.0020 -0.0213 -0.030.05 -0.0042 -0.0243 -0.0154 -0.0009 -0.0109 -0.010.10 -0.0015 -0.0225 -0.0093 0.0042 -0.0042 -0.000.25 -0.0027 -0.0400 -0.0299 -0.0049 -0.0223 -0.020.50 -0.0011 -0.0105 -0.0224 -0.0155 -0.0217 -0.021.00 -0.0006 0.0437 -0.0464 -0.0162 -0.0290 -0.02
Forecasting a Better Future

Ad Hoc Met Meeting, May 26-27, 2004

Summer noah_mrf stats (Episode 2, US 

Total stats bias abserr r2 ia rmse

Temperature (K) -0.37 -0.27 -0.021 -0.005 -0.3041 

Mixing Ratio (g/kg) -0.67 -0.05 0.017 -0.005 -0.0018 

Rel. Humidity (%) -2.50 -0.02 0.016 -0.002 0.3326 

Wind Speed (m/s) -0.31 -0.20 -0.104 -0.047 -0.2402 

Clouds (%) 0.83 0.50 0.005 0.001 0.6075 Wind stats bias abserr uerr verr uverr

Wind (deg, m/s) -1.086 -0.53 -0.0358 -0.0394 -0.0531 

Pcp Threshold (in) Acc Bias FAR POD CSI ETS 

0.01 -0.0003 -0.0157 0.0042 -0.0082 -0.0034 -0.0009 0.05 0.0058 0.0206 0.0109 -0.0007 0.0058 0.0085 0.10 0.0076 0.0410 0.0145 -0.0027 0.0072 0.0100 0.25 0.0150 0.1450 0.0331 -0.0045 0.0179 0.0214 0.50 0.0151 0.3081 0.0500 -0.0064 0.0243 0.0272 1.00 0.0047 0.2763 0.0575 0.0378 0.0318 0.0324 
Forecasting a Better Future

Ad Hoc Met Meeting, May 26-27, 2004

Winter multi_blkdr stats (Episode 1, US 

Total stats bias abserr r2 ia rmse

Temperature (K) -0.36 -0.22 -0.023 -0.010 -0.3301 

Mixing Ratio (g/kg) -0.31 -0.14 -0.033 -0.017 -0.1974 

Rel. Humidity (%) -11.03 -4.38 -0.080 -0.147 -5.0237 

Wind Speed (m/s) -0.26 -0.05 -0.002 0.024 -0.0604 

Clouds (%) 2.38 -1.57 -0.042 -0.020 -1.3545 Wind stats bias abserr uerr verr uverr

Wind (deg, m/s) -1.938 -0.38 -0.0476 -0.0389 -0.0611 

Pcp Threshold (in) Acc Bias FAR POD CSI ETS 

0.01 -0.0282 -0.1382 0.0682 0.0220 -0.0318 -0.0495 0.05 -0.0058 -0.0490 0.0231 0.0065 -0.0124 -0.0152 0.10 -0.0028 -0.0385 0.0168 0.0060 -0.0085 -0.0099 0.25 -0.0012 -0.0291 0.0154 0.0036 -0.0080 -0.0086 0.50 -0.0004 -0.0099 0.0091 -0.0025 -0.0068 -0.0069 1.00 -0.0001 -0.0284 0.0009 -0.0183 -0.0106 -0.0106 
Forecasting a Better Future

Ad Hoc Met Meeting, May 26-27, 2004

Summer multi_blkdr stats (Episode 2, US 

Total stats bias abserr r2 ia rmse

Temperature (K) 0.02 -0.14 -0.019 -0.006 -0.1609 

Mixing Ratio (g/kg) 0.15 -0.02 -0.030 -0.010 -0.0399 

Rel. Humidity (%) -0.65 -0.48 -0.032 -0.021 -0.2737 

Wind Speed (m/s) 0.10 -0.12 -0.073 -0.018 -0.1302 

Clouds (%) 0.04 0.91 0.011 0.005 0.9705 Wind stats bias abserr uerr verr uverr

Wind (deg, m/s) -0.841 -0.24 -0.0488 -0.0678 -0.0828 

Pcp Threshold (in) Acc Bias FAR POD CSI ETS 

0.01 -0.0254 0.0395 0.0400 -0.0073 -0.0257 -0.0413 0.05 -0.0254 -0.0682 0.0421 -0.0083 -0.0276 -0.0377 0.10 -0.0229 -0.0816 0.0399 -0.0125 -0.0276 -0.0342 0.25 -0.0107 -0.0272 0.0284 -0.0350 -0.0250 -0.0263 0.50 0.0007 0.1146 0.0144 -0.0505 -0.0176 -0.0169 1.00 0.0023 0.1937 -0.0100 -0.0116 0.0019 0.0023 
Forecasting a Better Future

Ad Hoc Met Meeting, May 26-27, 2004

Winter noah_eta-my stats (Episode 1, US 

Total stats bias abserr r2 ia rmse

Temperature (K) -1.30 -0.90 -0.046 -0.030 -1.1408 

Mixing Ratio (g/kg) -0.06 -0.08 -0.022 -0.007 -0.0803 

Rel. Humidity (%) -10.88 -4.71 -0.077 -0.125 -5.2197 

Wind Speed (m/s) -0.06 0.03 0.026 0.028 0.0442 

Clouds (%) 1.19 -0.98 -0.016 -0.011 -0.2897 Wind stats bias abserr uerr verr uverr

Wind (deg, m/s) 0.668 0.35 0.0371 0.0318 0.0487 

Pcp Threshold (in) Acc Bias FAR POD CSI ETS 

0.01 -0.0434 -0.2155 -0.0990 0.0351 -0.0465 -0.0732 0.05 -0.0015 -0.0123 -0.0063 0.0013 -0.0036 -0.0043 0.10 0.0003 0.0009 0.0015 0.0011 0.0017 0.0017 0.25 -0.0001 0.0093 0.0016 -0.0050 -0.0019 -0.0018 0.50 -0.0002 -0.0047 -0.0015 -0.0056 -0.0041 -0.0042 1.00 -0.0001 -0.0142 -0.0051 -0.0132 -0.0095 -0.0096 
Forecasting a Better Future

Ad Hoc Met Meeting, May 26-27, 2004

Summer noah_eta-my stats (Episode 2, U

Total stats bias abserr r2 ia rmse

Temperature (K) -1.15 -0.71 -0.043 -0.022 -0.8789 

Mixing Ratio (g/kg) 0.00 0.05 0.009 0.003 0.0895 

Rel. Humidity (%) -5.67 -0.74 0.032 -0.008 -0.5429 

Wind Speed (m/s) -0.24 0.00 0.026 0.002 -0.0108 

Clouds (%) -0.54 0.45 -0.006 -0.008 0.2731 Wind stats bias abserr uerr verr uverr

Wind (deg, m/s) 1.138 0.31 0.0335 0.0337 0.0475 

Pcp Threshold (in) Acc Bias FAR POD CSI ETS 

0.01 -0.0176 0.1064 -0.0459 0.0344 -0.0036 -0.0269 0.05 -0.0149 -0.1029 -0.0288 0.0265 -0.0046 -0.0146 0.10 -0.0181 -0.1142 -0.0304 0.0150 -0.0128 -0.0197 0.25 -0.0085 -0.0389 -0.0208 -0.0193 -0.0169 -0.0182 0.50 0.0045 0.1814 -0.0016 -0.0465 -0.0104 -0.0091 1.00 0.0040 0.3590 0.0130 -0.0311 -0.0014 -0.0006 
Forecasting a Better Future

Ad Hoc Met Meeting, May 26-27, 2004

Sensitivity test: px_acm3

O Like px_acm2, except:

– soil moisture/temperature initialization 

P-X soil layer 2 from EDAS soil layer 3 100 cm).
Forecasting a Better Future

Ad Hoc Met Meeting, May 26-27, 2004

Winter px-acm3 stats (Episode 1, US 3

Total stats bias abserr r2 ia rmse

Temperature (K) 0.65 0.17 -0.002 0.003 0.2029 

Mixing Ratio (g/kg) 0.05 0.00 -0.002 0.000 -0.0035 

Rel. Humidity (%) 2.53 0.18 0.025 0.015 0.1032 

Wind Speed (m/s) -0.03 0.02 0.010 0.009 0.0192 

Clouds (%) -0.02 -0.01 0.001 0.000 0.0497 Wind stats bias abserr uerr verr uverr

Wind (deg, m/s) -0.643 -0.02 0.0072 0.0026 0.0070 

Pcp Threshold (in) Acc Bias FAR POD CSI ETS 

0.01 -0.0028 -0.0257 -0.0101 0.0082 -0.0014 -0.0038 0.05 -0.0016 -0.0193 -0.0075 0.0047 -0.0026 -0.0034 0.10 -0.0012 -0.0252 -0.0086 0.0069 -0.0023 -0.0030 0.25 -0.0007 -0.0199 -0.0092 0.0039 -0.0038 -0.0041 0.50 -0.0002 -0.0251 -0.0083 0.0086 0.0000 -0.0001 1.00 0.0000 0.0152 -0.0014 0.0081 0.0039 0.0038 
Forecasting a Better Future

Ad Hoc Met Meeting, May 26-27, 2004

Summer px_acm3 stats (Episode 2, US 

Total stats bias abserr r2 ia rmse

Temperature (K) -0.62 -0.23 -0.018 -0.007 -0.2704 

Mixing Ratio (g/kg) -0.25 -0.03 -0.006 -0.004 -0.0304 

Rel. Humidity (%) -0.09 -0.18 -0.009 -0.003 -0.2014 

Wind Speed (m/s) 0.00 -0.01 -0.008 -0.005 -0.0114 

Clouds (%) 0.15 0.06 0.001 0.001 -0.0039 Wind stats bias abserr uerr verr uverr

Wind (deg, m/s) 0.147 0.07 -0.0061 -0.0036 -0.0068 

Pcp Threshold (in) Acc Bias FAR POD CSI ETS 

0.01 -0.0068 -0.0401 0.0033 -0.0273 -0.0168 -0.0126 0.05 0.0005 0.0599 0.0060 -0.0292 -0.0110 -0.0069 0.10 0.0043 0.0794 0.0079 -0.0297 -0.0071 -0.0034 0.25 0.0075 0.1285 0.0101 -0.0305 -0.0022 0.0003 0.50 0.0061 0.1842 0.0082 -0.0326 -0.0025 -0.0010 1.00 0.0031 0.2807 0.0104 -0.0232 -0.0004 0.0001 
Forecasting a Better Future

Ad Hoc Met Meeting, May 26-27, 2004

Sensitivity test: px_acm4

O Like px_acm2, except:

– uses the SFCFDDA file from RAWINS a

MMINPUT files processed using RAWIdata rather than REGRID data .
Forecasting a Better Future

Ad Hoc Met Meeting, May 26-27, 2004

Winter px-acm4 stats (Episode 1, US 3

Total stats bias abserr r2 ia rmse

Temperature (K) 0.08 0.07 0.004 0.002 0.0950 

Mixing Ratio (g/kg) -0.02 0.01 0.003 0.000 0.0093 

Rel. Humidity (%) -0.18 0.09 0.009 0.003 0.1488 

Wind Speed (m/s) 0.02 -0.03 -0.024 -0.010 -0.0397 

Clouds (%) -0.22 -0.15 -0.006 -0.003 -0.2251 Wind stats bias abserr uerr verr uverr

Wind (deg, m/s) -0.255 -0.62 -0.0339 -0.0300 -0.0452 

Pcp Threshold (in) Acc Bias FAR POD CSI ETS 

0.01 -0.0033 -0.0153 -0.0087 0.0022 -0.0041 -0.0062 0.05 -0.0010 -0.0074 -0.0042 0.0004 -0.0026 -0.0031 0.10 -0.0010 -0.0073 -0.0050 -0.0009 -0.0039 -0.0044 0.25 -0.0001 0.0203 0.0032 -0.0110 -0.0043 -0.0042 0.50 0.0000 -0.0346 0.0079 -0.0170 -0.0055 -0.0054 1.00 0.0001 -0.0264 0.0130 -0.0051 0.0028 0.0028 
Forecasting a Better Future

Ad Hoc Met Meeting, May 26-27, 2004

Summer px_acm4 stats (Episode 2, US 

Total stats bias abserr r2 ia rmse

Temperature (K) -0.10 0.01 0.005 0.001 0.0265 

Mixing Ratio (g/kg) 0.02 0.01 0.003 0.001 0.0200 

Rel. Humidity (%) 0.18 0.22 0.016 0.005 0.3339 

Wind Speed (m/s) -0.01 -0.03 -0.030 -0.016 -0.0438 

Clouds (%) 0.05 -0.13 -0.004 -0.003 -0.1747 Wind stats bias abserr uerr verr uverr

Wind (deg, m/s) -0.087 -0.91 -0.0344 -0.0341 -0.0484 

Pcp Threshold (in) Acc Bias FAR POD CSI ETS 

0.01 0.0027 -0.0096 0.0060 -0.0020 0.0018 0.0044 0.05 0.0030 0.0180 0.0063 -0.0040 0.0016 0.0036 0.10 0.0002 0.0281 0.0000 -0.0137 -0.0052 -0.0041 0.25 0.0033 0.0683 0.0031 -0.0193 -0.0031 -0.0019 0.50 0.0018 0.0780 -0.0014 -0.0213 -0.0050 -0.0044 1.00 0.0012 0.0465 0.0179 0.0211 0.0118 0.0118 
Forecasting a Better Future

Ad Hoc Met Meeting, May 26-27, 2004

Sensitivity test: px_acm5

O Like px_acm2, except:

– uses Reisner 2 microphysics rather th

Reisner 1.
Forecasting a Better Future

Ad Hoc Met Meeting, May 26-27, 2004

Winter px-acm5 stats (Episode 1, US 3

Total stats bias abserr r2 ia rmse

Temperature (K) 0.12 0.07 0.003 0.002 0.0972 

Mixing Ratio (g/kg) -0.01 0.00 0.000 0.000 0.0004 

Rel. Humidity (%) -0.01 -0.06 -0.001 0.000 -0.0488 

Wind Speed (m/s) 0.00 0.01 0.001 0.001 0.0018 

Clouds (%) 2.28 0.95 0.024 0.017 0.6766 Wind stats bias abserr uerr verr uverr

Wind (deg, m/s) -0.046 -0.01 0.0017 0.0008 0.0018 

Pcp Threshold (in) Acc Bias FAR POD CSI ETS 

0.01 0.0031 -0.0799 0.0283 -0.0408 -0.0094 -0.0030 0.05 0.0033 0.0860 0.0247 -0.0329 -0.0025 0.0001 0.10 0.0018 0.0700 0.0190 -0.0265 -0.0017 -0.0006 0.25 0.0007 0.0505 0.0169 -0.0186 -0.0002 0.0002 0.50 -0.0003 -0.0442 0.0046 -0.0269 -0.0133 -0.0132 1.00 -0.0001 -0.0325 -0.0015 -0.0213 -0.0126 -0.0126 
Forecasting a Better Future

Ad Hoc Met Meeting, May 26-27, 2004

Summer px_acm5 stats (Episode 2, US 

Total stats bias abserr r2 ia rmse

Temperature (K) 0.07 -0.03 -0.002 -0.001 -0.0285 

Mixing Ratio (g/kg) 0.01 -0.02 -0.004 -0.002 -0.0248 

Rel. Humidity (%) -0.20 -0.12 -0.009 -0.003 -0.1517 

Wind Speed (m/s) -0.02 0.00 -0.001 -0.002 -0.0034 

Clouds (%) -0.30 -0.11 -0.001 0.000 -0.2593 Wind stats bias abserr uerr verr uverr

Wind (deg, m/s) 0.122 -0.02 0.0000 -0.0005 -0.0003 

Pcp Threshold (in) Acc Bias FAR POD CSI ETS 

0.01 -0.0066 -0.0324 0.0013 -0.0232 -0.0150 -0.0121 0.05 -0.0023 0.0426 0.0000 -0.0252 -0.0122 -0.0099 0.10 0.0006 0.0525 0.0006 -0.0250 -0.0092 -0.0072 0.25 0.0046 0.1108 0.0029 -0.0344 -0.0072 -0.0052 0.50 0.0060 0.1887 0.0071 -0.0354 -0.0037 -0.0022 1.00 0.0024 0.2219 0.0059 -0.0210 -0.0017 -0.0013 
Forecasting a Better Future

Ad Hoc Met Meeting, May 26-27, 2004

Sensitivity test: px_acm6

O Like px_acm2, except:

– analysis nudging strengths aloft for 

wind/temps are increased from 2.5E-4, 1.0E-4 (36/12 km) to 3.0E-4, 3.0E-4.
Forecasting a Better Future

Ad Hoc Met Meeting, May 26-27, 2004

Winter px-acm6 stats (Episode 1, US 3

Total stats bias abserr r2 ia rmse

Temperature (K) 0.01 0.00 0.000 0.000 0.0053 

Mixing Ratio (g/kg) 0.00 0.00 0.000 0.000 -0.0009 

Rel. Humidity (%) 0.07 0.07 0.003 0.002 0.0799 

Wind Speed (m/s) -0.02 0.00 -0.002 -0.002 -0.0041 

Clouds (%) -0.03 0.02 0.001 0.000 0.0167 Wind stats bias abserr uerr verr uverr

Wind (deg, m/s) 0.145 -0.04 -0.0006 -0.0011 -0.0011 

Pcp Threshold (in) Acc Bias FAR POD CSI ETS 

0.01 0.0001 0.0034 0.0010 -0.0014 -0.0003 0.0000 0.05 0.0003 0.0041 0.0013 -0.0012 0.0002 0.0004 0.10 0.0004 0.0025 0.0023 0.0009 0.0021 0.0021 0.25 0.0002 0.0000 0.0018 0.0019 0.0023 0.0024 0.50 -0.0001 -0.0105 -0.0025 0.0046 0.0012 0.0011 1.00 0.0000 0.0031 -0.0021 0.0000 -0.0009 -0.0010 
Forecasting a Better Future

Ad Hoc Met Meeting, May 26-27, 2004

Summer px_acm6 stats (Episode 2, US 

Total stats bias abserr r2 ia rmse

Temperature (K) 0.00 0.00 0.001 0.001 0.0059 

Mixing Ratio (g/kg) -0.01 -0.01 -0.002 -0.001 -0.0132 

Rel. Humidity (%) -0.06 0.01 0.001 0.001 0.0190 

Wind Speed (m/s) 0.00 0.00 -0.001 -0.001 -0.0023 

Clouds (%) 0.01 -0.14 -0.003 -0.003 -0.2124 Wind stats bias abserr uerr verr uverr

Wind (deg, m/s) 0.026 -0.12 -0.0029 -0.0027 -0.0039 

Pcp Threshold (in) Acc Bias FAR POD CSI ETS 

0.01 -0.0005 0.0045 -0.0019 0.0017 0.0002 -0.0007 0.05 -0.0023 -0.0094 -0.0042 0.0009 -0.0019 -0.0031 0.10 -0.0031 -0.0116 -0.0057 -0.0014 -0.0038 -0.0048 0.25 -0.0018 -0.0141 -0.0041 -0.0014 -0.0027 -0.0031 0.50 -0.0015 -0.0280 -0.0046 -0.0011 -0.0028 -0.0030 1.00 -0.0005 -0.0485 -0.0017 0.0037 -0.0001 -0.0002 
Forecasting a Better Future

Ad Hoc Met Meeting, May 26-27, 2004

Sensitivity test: px_acm7

O Like px_acm2, except:

– SFCFDDA files from RAWINS are used 

instead of those from LITTLE_R. 
Forecasting a Better Future

Ad Hoc Met Meeting, May 26-27, 2004

Winter px-acm7 stats (Episode 1, US 3

Total stats bias abserr r2 ia rmse

Temperature (K) 0.00 -0.01 0.000 0.000 -0.0029 

Mixing Ratio (g/kg) 0.00 0.00 -0.001 0.000 -0.0009 

Rel. Humidity (%) -0.05 0.01 0.000 0.000 0.0095 

Wind Speed (m/s) 0.00 -0.04 -0.028 -0.013 -0.0470 

Clouds (%) 0.05 0.01 0.001 0.000 0.0226 Wind stats bias abserr uerr verr uverr

Wind (deg, m/s) 0.017 -0.77 -0.0373 -0.0370 -0.0525 

Pcp Threshold (in) Acc Bias FAR POD CSI ETS 

0.01 -0.0002 0.0014 0.0000 -0.0010 -0.0006 -0.0006 0.05 -0.0001 -0.0008 -0.0005 0.0000 -0.0003 -0.0003 0.10 0.0005 0.0020 0.0023 0.0013 0.0023 0.0024 0.25 0.0001 0.0022 0.0015 0.0000 0.0010 0.0010 0.50 -0.0001 -0.0000 -0.0003 -0.0013 -0.0010 -0.0010 1.00 0.0000 0.0152 -0.0025 0.0071 0.0028 0.0027 
Forecasting a Better Future

Ad Hoc Met Meeting, May 26-27, 2004

Summer px_acm7 stats (Episode 2, US 

Total stats bias abserr r2 ia rmse

Temperature (K) 0.00 -0.01 -0.001 0.000 -0.0153 

Mixing Ratio (g/kg) 0.06 0.01 0.003 0.000 0.0100 

Rel. Humidity (%) 0.26 0.04 0.003 0.001 0.0765 

Wind Speed (m/s) -0.01 -0.04 -0.033 -0.018 -0.0484 

Clouds (%) -0.18 -0.13 -0.002 -0.002 -0.1188 Wind stats bias abserr uerr verr uverr

Wind (deg, m/s) -0.023 -1.18 -0.0404 -0.0433 -0.0592 

Pcp Threshold (in) Acc Bias FAR POD CSI ETS 

0.01 -0.0025 -0.0088 -0.0005 -0.0071 -0.0050 -0.0045 0.05 -0.0026 0.0117 -0.0031 -0.0103 -0.0066 -0.0065 0.10 -0.0043 0.0104 -0.0083 -0.0152 -0.0104 -0.0108 0.25 -0.0018 0.0062 -0.0060 -0.0114 -0.0063 -0.0064 0.50 -0.0012 -0.0166 -0.0047 -0.0039 -0.0033 -0.0035 1.00 -0.0002 -0.0326 0.0014 0.0066 0.0018 0.0017 
Forecasting a Better Future

Ad Hoc Met Meeting, May 26-27, 2004

Sensitivity test: px_acm8

O Like px_acm2, except:

– MMINPUT files are processed using da

from LITTLE_R rather than from REGR
Forecasting a Better Future

Ad Hoc Met Meeting, May 26-27, 2004

Winter px-acm8 stats (Episode 1, US 3

Total stats bias abserr r2 ia rmse

Temperature (K) 0.22 0.15 0.008 0.004 0.1800 

Mixing Ratio (g/kg) -0.02 0.01 0.002 0.000 0.0076 

Rel. Humidity (%) 0.35 0.32 0.021 0.010 0.4144 

Wind Speed (m/s) 0.02 0.02 0.010 0.007 0.0180 

Clouds (%) 0.03 0.05 0.003 0.001 0.1037 Wind stats bias abserr uerr verr uverr

Wind (deg, m/s) -0.237 0.19 0.0098 0.0129 0.0161 

Pcp Threshold (in) Acc Bias FAR POD CSI ETS 

0.01 -0.0043 -0.0168 -0.0107 0.0013 -0.0059 -0.0085 0.05 -0.0015 -0.0107 -0.0059 0.0007 -0.0036 -0.0043 0.10 -0.0009 -0.0110 -0.0055 0.0010 -0.0032 -0.0037 0.25 0.0003 0.0225 0.0078 -0.0078 0.0005 0.0008 0.50 -0.0003 -0.0312 0.0004 -0.0220 -0.0126 -0.0126 1.00 0.0000 -0.0233 0.0014 -0.0132 -0.0068 -0.0068 
Forecasting a Better Future

Ad Hoc Met Meeting, May 26-27, 2004

Summer px_acm8 stats (Episode 2, US 

Total stats bias abserr r2 ia rmse

Temperature (K) 0.06 0.07 0.011 0.003 0.0879 

Mixing Ratio (g/kg) 0.00 0.00 0.002 0.000 0.0121 

Rel. Humidity (%) -0.13 0.23 0.014 0.005 0.3027 

Wind Speed (m/s) 0.00 0.01 0.008 0.005 0.0113 

Clouds (%) 0.33 0.19 0.004 0.002 0.2725 Wind stats bias abserr uerr verr uverr

Wind (deg, m/s) -0.250 0.26 0.0091 0.0118 0.0148 

Pcp Threshold (in) Acc Bias FAR POD CSI ETS 

0.01 0.0040 0.0122 0.0014 0.0104 0.0077 0.0074 0.05 0.0011 -0.0235 -0.0002 0.0136 0.0064 0.0052 0.10 -0.0018 -0.0272 -0.0032 0.0094 0.0016 0.0004 0.25 -0.0019 -0.0089 -0.0049 -0.0044 -0.0039 -0.0042 0.50 -0.0023 -0.0344 -0.0080 -0.0054 -0.0055 -0.0058 1.00 0.0002 -0.0058 0.0064 0.0109 0.0048 0.0048 
Forecasting a Better Future

Ad Hoc Met Meeting, May 26-27, 2004

Sensitivity test: px_acm9

O Like px_acm2, except:

– initialization for soil temperature/mois

is based on a 25% weighting of EDAS layer 1 (0-10 cm) values and a 75% weighting from EDAS soil layer 3 (40-1cm). Code supplied by Aijun Xiu; execfor episode 3 only.
Forecasting a Better Future

Ad Hoc Met Meeting, May 26-27, 2004

Summer px_acm9 stats (Episode 3, US 

Total stats bias abserr r2 ia rmse

Temperature (K) -0.42 -0.12 -0.009 -0.004 -0.1230 

Mixing Ratio (g/kg) -0.08 0.01 0.000 0.000 0.0113 

Rel. Humidity (%) 0.00 -0.08 -0.006 -0.002 -0.0670 

Wind Speed (m/s) -0.01 -0.01 -0.005 -0.005 -0.0098 

Clouds (%) -0.09 -0.03 -0.002 0.000 -0.0983 Wind stats bias abserr uerr verr uverr

Wind (deg, m/s) 0.139 0.05 -0.0036 -0.0039 -0.0053 

Pcp Threshold (in) Acc Bias FAR POD CSI ETS 

0.01 -0.0049 -0.0160 -0.0015 -0.0132 -0.0098 -0.0084 0.05 0.0000 -0.0220 0.0020 -0.0125 -0.0052 -0.0033 0.10 0.0011 0.0376 0.0016 -0.0163 -0.0056 -0.0040 0.25 0.0034 0.0449 0.0062 -0.0062 0.0017 0.0027 0.50 0.0019 0.0502 0.0047 -0.0031 0.0020 0.0024 1.00 0.0013 0.1032 0.0068 0.0036 0.0039 0.0040 
Forecasting a Better Future

Ad Hoc Met Meeting, May 26-27, 2004

Sensitivity test: s0px_acm2

O Like px_acm2, except:

– snow cover effects are not considered 

(IFSNOW=0) as opposed to IFSNOW=1 px_acm2. Run only for episode 1.
Forecasting a Better Future

Ad Hoc Met Meeting, May 26-27, 2004

Winter s0px-acm2 stats (Episode 1, US 

Total stats bias abserr r2 ia rmse

Temperature (K) 0.07 0.03 0.000 0.001 0.0466 

Mixing Ratio (g/kg) -0.01 0.00 -0.001 0.000 -0.0007 

Rel. Humidity (%) -0.08 -0.02 0.000 0.000 -0.0138 

Wind Speed (m/s) 0.01 0.01 0.001 0.001 0.0017 

Clouds (%) 0.20 0.03 0.001 0.001 0.0607 Wind stats bias abserr uerr verr uverr

Wind (deg, m/s) -0.040 -0.01 0.0007 0.0002 0.0007 

Pcp Threshold (in) Acc Bias FAR POD CSI ETS 

0.01 -0.0014 -0.0095 -0.0044 0.0025 -0.0012 -0.0022 0.05 -0.0009 -0.0076 -0.0038 0.0010 -0.0021 -0.0025 0.10 -0.0003 -0.0057 -0.0020 0.0015 -0.0005 -0.0007 0.25 -0.0001 -0.0003 -0.0006 -0.0005 -0.0006 -0.0006 0.50 -0.0001 -0.0013 0.0002 -0.0016 -0.0008 -0.0008 1.00 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 
Forecasting a Better Future

Ad Hoc Met Meeting, May 26-27, 2004

Sensitivity test: s2px_acm2

O Like px_acm2, except:

– the simple snow model is employed 

(IFSNOW=2) as opposed to IFSNOW=1 px_acm2. Run only for episode 1.
Forecasting a Better Future

Ad Hoc Met Meeting, May 26-27, 2004

Winter s2px-acm2 stats (Episode 1, US 

Total stats bias abserr r2 ia rmse

Temperature (K) -0.91 -0.70 -0.046 -0.025 -0.9534 

Mixing Ratio (g/kg) 0.02 -0.02 -0.016 -0.005 -0.0415 

Rel. Humidity (%) -0.03 -0.33 -0.048 -0.021 -0.5583 

Wind Speed (m/s) 0.00 -0.02 -0.019 -0.011 -0.0332 

Clouds (%) -0.13 0.17 0.004 0.002 0.1250 Wind stats bias abserr uerr verr uverr

Wind (deg, m/s) 0.189 -0.09 -0.0204 -0.0149 -0.0249 

Pcp Threshold (in) Acc Bias FAR POD CSI ETS 

0.01 0.0035 -0.0093 0.0109 -0.0048 0.0037 0.0064 0.05 0.0017 0.0188 0.0078 -0.0042 0.0029 0.0038 0.10 0.0011 0.0164 0.0069 -0.0032 0.0031 0.0035 0.25 0.0004 0.0180 0.0077 -0.0047 0.0023 0.0025 0.50 -0.0001 -0.0105 0.0016 -0.0065 -0.0029 -0.0029 1.00 0.0000 -0.0091 0.0006 -0.0051 -0.0025 -0.0026 
Forecasting a Better Future

Ad Hoc Met Meeting, May 26-27, 2004

Sensitivity test: n0_px_acm2

O Like px_acm2, except:

– soil moisture nudging is turned off. 
Forecasting a Better Future

Ad Hoc Met Meeting, May 26-27, 2004

Summer n0_px_acm2 stats (Episode 2, U

Total stats bias abserr r2 ia rmse

Temperature (K) 0.09 -0.07 -0.010 -0.002 -0.0789 

Mixing Ratio (g/kg) -0.08 -0.09 -0.021 -0.007 -0.1060 

Rel. Humidity (%) -0.51 -0.45 -0.018 -0.006 -0.4458 

Wind Speed (m/s) 0.00 0.00 -0.002 -0.001 -0.0039 

Clouds (%) 0.04 0.00 0.000 -0.001 0.0099 Wind stats bias abserr uerr verr uverr

Wind (deg, m/s) -0.048 -0.12 -0.0029 -0.0032 -0.0043 

Pcp Threshold (in) Acc Bias FAR POD CSI ETS 

0.01 -0.0030 -0.0048 -0.0022 -0.0056 -0.0049 -0.0052 0.05 -0.0013 0.0071 -0.0014 -0.0057 -0.0035 -0.0033 0.10 -0.0013 0.0051 -0.0026 -0.0056 -0.0036 -0.0036 0.25 0.0002 0.0279 -0.0022 -0.0130 -0.0045 -0.0041 0.50 0.0014 0.0497 0.0006 -0.0111 -0.0019 -0.0015 1.00 0.0009 0.0776 0.0014 -0.0079 -0.0008 -0.0007 
Forecasting a Better Future

Ad Hoc Met Meeting, May 26-27, 2004

Sensitivity test: px_acm_n

O Like px_acm_n, except:

– surface analysis nudging is turned on 

temp/moisture at a strength of 2.5E-4, 1.0E-4 (36, 12 km temps) and 1.0E-4, 14 (36, 12 km moisture).
Forecasting a Better Future

Ad Hoc Met Meeting, May 26-27, 2004

Winter px-acm_n stats (Episode 1, US 3

Total stats bias abserr r2 ia rmse

Temperature (K) 0.27 0.47 0.039 0.012 0.5621 

Mixing Ratio (g/kg) -0.07 0.17 0.065 0.017 0.2255 

Rel. Humidity (%) 0.38 4.66 0.293 0.105 5.9568 

Wind Speed (m/s) -0.05 0.04 0.025 0.014 0.0433 

Clouds (%) 0.26 -0.04 -0.002 0.000 -0.0581 Wind stats bias abserr Uerr verr uverr

Wind (deg, m/s) -0.586 0.07 0.0133 0.0093 0.0160 

Pcp Threshold (in) Acc Bias FAR POD CSI ETS 

0.01 -0.0018 -0.0310 -0.0095 0.0126 0.0016 -0.0007 0.05 -0.0049 -0.0512 -0.0211 0.0102 -0.0091 -0.0117 0.10 -0.0027 -0.0503 -0.0180 0.0122 -0.0062 -0.0077 0.25 -0.0008 -0.0434 -0.0148 0.0141 -0.0018 -0.0023 0.50 -0.0003 -0.0328 -0.0101 0.0120 0.0009 0.0008 1.00 -0.0002 0.0406 -0.0171 0.0091 -0.0027 -0.0028 
Forecasting a Better Future

Ad Hoc Met Meeting, May 26-27, 2004

Summer px_acm_n stats (Episode 2, US 

Total stats bias abserr r2 ia rmse

Temperature (K) -0.02 0.21 0.029 0.009 0.2498 

Mixing Ratio (g/kg) -0.45 0.34 0.080 0.018 0.4189 

Rel. Humidity (%) -3.58 2.54 0.174 0.042 3.5250 

Wind Speed (m/s) 0.06 0.01 0.002 0.009 0.0041 

Clouds (%) -0.56 -0.79 -0.020 -0.021 -0.4014 Wind stats bias abserr uerr verr uverr

Wind (deg, m/s) 0.106 -0.41 -0.0204 -0.0090 -0.0206 

Pcp Threshold (in) Acc Bias FAR POD CSI ETS 

0.01 -0.0874 -0.3281 -0.1617 0.1888 -0.0090 -0.1196 0.05 -0.1698 -0.9034 -0.1832 0.1689 -0.0712 -0.1464 0.10 -0.1863 -1.1667 -0.1762 0.1491 -0.0871 -0.1379 0.25 -0.1372 -1.4409 -0.1362 0.0971 -0.0788 -0.0992 0.50 -0.0651 -1.3678 -0.0949 0.0436 -0.0543 -0.0616 1.00 -0.0131 -1.0558 -0.0411 0.0305 -0.0171 -0.0187 
Forecasting a Better Future

Ad Hoc Met Meeting, May 26-27, 2004

Warning (1.0E-4 q)
Forecasting a Better Future

Ad Hoc Met Meeting, May 26-27, 2004

Sensitivity test: px_acm_n2

O Like px_acm2, except:

– surface analysis nudging for moisture 

reduced to 1.0E-5, 1.0E-5 (36, 12 km). Ronly for episode 2.
Forecasting a Better Future

Ad Hoc Met Meeting, May 26-27, 2004

Summer px_acm_n2 stats (Episode 2, U

Total stats bias abserr r2 ia rmse

Temperature (K) 0.11 0.26 0.034 0.011 0.3233 

Mixing Ratio (g/kg) 0.05 0.09 0.016 0.005 0.1248 

Rel. Humidity (%) -0.94 1.85 0.114 0.036 2.6266 

Wind Speed (m/s) 0.08 0.01 0.004 0.012 0.0078 

Clouds (%) 0.83 -0.44 -0.017 -0.015 -0.4841 Wind stats bias abserr uerr verr uverr

Wind (deg, m/s) -0.162 -0.51 -0.0240 -0.0119 -0.0252 

Pcp Threshold (in) Acc Bias FAR POD CSI ETS 

0.01 -0.0431 -0.0421 -0.0993 0.0930 -0.0051 -0.0628 0.05 -0.0849 -0.4172 -0.1192 0.0673 -0.0485 -0.0898 0.10 -0.0867 -0.4984 -0.1138 0.0470 -0.0584 -0.0857 0.25 -0.0545 -0.5351 -0.0804 0.0199 -0.0470 -0.0570 0.50 -0.0236 -0.4618 -0.0528 -0.0009 -0.0308 -0.0341 1.00 -0.0040 -0.3357 -0.0159 0.0138 -0.0052 -0.0059 
Forecasting a Better Future

Ad Hoc Met Meeting, May 26-27, 2004

Warning (1.0E-5 q)
Forecasting a Better Future

Ad Hoc Met Meeting, May 26-27, 2004

Sensitivity test: g1px_acm2

O Like px_acm2, except:

– Grell cumulus parameterization replac

KF2. 
Forecasting a Better Future

Ad Hoc Met Meeting, May 26-27, 2004

Winter g1px-acm2 stats (Episode 1, US 

Total stats bias abserr r2 ia rmse

Temperature (K) 0.06 0.03 0.001 0.000 0.0380 

Mixing Ratio (g/kg) -0.03 -0.01 -0.002 -0.001 -0.0153 

Rel. Humidity (%) -0.41 -0.12 -0.005 -0.003 -0.1239 

Wind Speed (m/s) 0.01 0.00 -0.001 0.000 -0.0009 

Clouds (%) 1.38 0.42 0.012 0.008 0.3882 Wind stats bias abserr uerr verr uverr

Wind (deg, m/s) -0.166 -0.04 -0.0007 -0.0018 -0.0018 

Pcp Threshold (in) Acc Bias FAR POD CSI ETS TSS 

0.01 -0.0303 -0.1749 -0.0762 0.0367 -0.0297 -0.0500 -0.020.05 -0.0146 -0.1167 -0.0541 0.0127 -0.0311 -0.0379 -0.000.10 -0.0069 -0.0768 -0.0376 0.0057 -0.0232 -0.0263 -0.000.25 -0.0030 -0.0016 -0.0268 -0.0275 -0.0327 -0.0338 -0.020.50 -0.0016 -0.0742 -0.0178 -0.0683 -0.0495 -0.0497 -0.061.00 -0.0006 -0.1787 -0.0293 -0.1310 -0.0862 -0.0861 -0.13
Forecasting a Better Future

Ad Hoc Met Meeting, May 26-27, 2004

Summer g1px_acm2 stats (Episode 2, U

Total stats bias abserr r2 ia rmse

Temperature (K) 0.13 0.01 0.003 0.002 0.0314 

Mixing Ratio (g/kg) 0.13 -0.06 0.002 -0.001 -0.0454 

Rel. Humidity (%) 0.02 0.01 0.014 0.005 0.1456 

Wind Speed (m/s) 0.01 0.00 0.002 0.001 0.0035 

Clouds (%) -10.45 -4.95 -0.031 -0.029 -6.5085 Wind stats bias abserr uerr verr uverr

Wind (deg, m/s) -0.309 -0.25 -0.0060 -0.0066 -0.0090 

Pcp Threshold (in) Acc Bias FAR POD CSI ETS 

0.01 -0.0082 -0.1377 0.0345 -0.0776 -0.0388 -0.0176 0.05 0.0325 -0.1472 0.1062 -0.1010 -0.0069 0.0246 0.10 0.0497 0.0432 0.1391 -0.1018 0.0174 0.0460 0.25 0.0529 0.4407 0.1596 -0.0799 0.0490 0.0663 0.50 0.0292 0.6325 0.1181 -0.0299 0.0471 0.0537 1.00 0.0022 0.0573 0.0392 0.0515 0.0271 0.0272 
Forecasting a Better Future

Ad Hoc Met Meeting, May 26-27, 2004

Sensitivity test: k1px_acm2

O Like px_acm2, except:

– Kain-Fritsch cumulus parameterization 

used instead of Kain-Fritsch. Run for episode 2 only.
Forecasting a Better Future

Ad Hoc Met Meeting, May 26-27, 2004

Summer k1px-acm2 stats (Episode 2, US 

Total stats bias abserr r2 ia rmse

Temperature (K) -0.33 -0.17 -0.034 -0.011 -0.3146 

Mixing Ratio (g/kg) -0.13 0.01 -0.004 -0.002 0.0226 

Rel. Humidity (%) -0.48 -0.76 -0.061 -0.021 -1.3117 

Wind Speed (m/s) -0.04 -0.01 -0.009 -0.006 -0.0190 

Clouds (%) 0.98 0.63 0.010 0.008 0.3314 Wind stats bias abserr uerr verr uverr

Wind (deg, m/s) 0.167 -0.10 -0.0049 -0.0029 -0.0054 

Pcp Threshold (in) Acc Bias FAR POD CSI ETS 

0.01 -0.0274 0.0358 -0.0415 -0.0113 -0.0290 -0.0447 0.05 -0.0291 -0.0910 -0.0482 -0.0030 -0.0288 -0.0412 0.10 -0.0313 -0.1588 -0.0512 0.0065 -0.0283 -0.0387 0.25 -0.0294 -0.2800 -0.0501 0.0065 -0.0294 -0.0351 0.50 -0.0166 -0.2928 -0.0446 -0.0169 -0.0282 -0.0304 1.00 -0.0028 -0.1957 -0.0200 -0.0094 -0.0106 -0.0110 
Forecasting a Better Future

Ad Hoc Met Meeting, May 26-27, 2004

Sensitivity test: r1px_acm2

O Like px_acm2, except:

– Simple (surface) radiation scheme is u

instead of RRTM.
Forecasting a Better Future

Ad Hoc Met Meeting, May 26-27, 2004

Winter r1px-acm2 stats (Episode 1, US 

Total stats bias abserr r2 ia rmse

Temperature (K) -0.58 -0.31 -0.001 -0.007 -0.3004 

Mixing Ratio (g/kg) 0.02 0.01 0.000 0.000 0.0018 

Rel. Humidity (%) -0.12 -0.29 -0.038 -0.017 -0.2959 

Wind Speed (m/s) -0.04 -0.02 -0.017 -0.013 -0.0311 

Clouds (%) -1.44 -0.25 -0.010 -0.006 -0.4534 Wind stats bias abserr uerr verr uverr

Wind (deg, m/s) 0.490 -0.10 -0.0100 -0.0137 -0.0167 

Pcp Threshold (in) Acc Bias FAR POD CSI ETS 

0.01 0.0067 -0.0513 0.0270 -0.0205 0.0032 0.0095 0.05 0.0040 0.0395 0.0180 -0.0075 0.0078 0.0100 0.10 0.0022 0.0307 0.0142 -0.0048 0.0071 0.0081 0.25 0.0005 0.0194 0.0091 -0.0043 0.0034 0.0037 0.50 0.0000 -0.0093 0.0023 -0.0050 -0.0016 -0.0015 1.00 0.0000 0.0010 -0.0018 -0.0010 -0.0013 -0.0014 
Forecasting a Better Future

Ad Hoc Met Meeting, May 26-27, 2004

Summer r1px_acm2 stats (Episode 2, US 

Total stats bias abserr r2 ia rmse

Temperature (K) -0.86 -0.32 -0.011 -0.012 -0.3278 

Mixing Ratio (g/kg) -0.06 -0.02 -0.005 -0.002 -0.0187 

Rel. Humidity (%) -0.41 -0.70 -0.041 -0.015 -0.7381 

Wind Speed (m/s) -0.04 -0.02 -0.014 -0.014 -0.0249 

Clouds (%) 0.90 0.53 0.002 0.001 0.2680 Wind stats bias abserr uerr verr uverr

Wind (deg, m/s) 0.477 -0.09 -0.0107 -0.0098 -0.0145 

Pcp Threshold (in) Acc Bias FAR POD CSI ETS 

0.01 -0.0204 -0.1215 0.0113 -0.0825 -0.0519 -0.0376 0.05 0.0004 -0.0097 0.0177 -0.0858 -0.0348 -0.0222 0.10 0.0072 0.2187 0.0144 -0.0926 -0.0303 -0.0201 0.25 0.0137 0.3192 0.0114 -0.0975 -0.0213 -0.0151 0.50 0.0124 0.4211 0.0108 -0.0890 -0.0150 -0.0115 1.00 0.0053 0.5055 0.0116 -0.0536 -0.0077 -0.0065 
Forecasting a Better Future

Ad Hoc Met Meeting, May 26-27, 2004

Sensitivity test: r2px_acm2

O Like px_acm2, except:

– Uses cloud (Dudhia) radiation scheme 

rather than RRTM.
Forecasting a Better Future

Ad Hoc Met Meeting, May 26-27, 2004

Winter r2px-acm2 stats (Episode 1, US 

Total stats bias abserr r2 ia rmse

Temperature (K) 0.08 0.01 0.002 0.001 0.0177 

Mixing Ratio (g/kg) -0.01 0.00 0.000 0.000 -0.0049 

Rel. Humidity (%) -0.51 -0.03 0.011 0.003 0.0145 

Wind Speed (m/s) -0.01 0.01 0.002 0.001 0.0040 

Clouds (%) -0.01 -0.04 -0.002 -0.001 -0.0786 Wind stats bias abserr uerr verr uverr

Wind (deg, m/s) 0.102 0.04 0.0029 0.0041 0.0050 

Pcp Threshold (in) Acc Bias FAR POD CSI ETS 

0.01 0.0011 0.0052 0.0035 -0.0016 0.0012 0.0021 0.05 0.0004 0.0021 0.0013 0.0001 0.0009 0.0011 0.10 0.0004 0.0012 0.0020 0.0015 0.0022 0.0022 0.25 0.0000 0.0009 0.0003 -0.0003 0.0001 0.0001 0.50 0.0000 -0.0022 0.0001 0.0015 0.0009 0.0009 1.00 0.0000 0.0081 -0.0022 0.0031 0.0008 0.0007 
Forecasting a Better Future

Ad Hoc Met Meeting, May 26-27, 2004

Summer r2px_acm2 stats (Episode 2, US 

Total stats bias abserr r2 ia rmse

Temperature (K) -0.38 -0.18 -0.015 -0.007 -0.1871 

Mixing Ratio (g/kg) 0.11 -0.05 -0.009 -0.003 -0.0605 

Rel. Humidity (%) -0.87 0.05 0.003 0.000 0.1193 

Wind Speed (m/s) 0.03 0.01 0.005 0.007 0.0080 

Clouds (%) 0.55 0.11 -0.001 -0.003 0.2064 Wind stats bias abserr uerr verr uverr

Wind (deg, m/s) -0.695 -0.09 0.0012 0.0021 0.0023 

Pcp Threshold (in) Acc Bias FAR POD CSI ETS 

0.01 0.0008 0.0217 -0.0050 0.0117 0.0052 0.0020 0.05 -0.0030 -0.0430 -0.0078 0.0165 0.0033 -0.0001 0.10 -0.0048 -0.0681 -0.0082 0.0228 0.0035 0.0003 0.25 -0.0074 -0.1230 -0.0091 0.0278 0.0011 -0.0011 0.50 -0.0080 -0.2153 -0.0124 0.0289 -0.0019 -0.0034 1.00 -0.0041 -0.3741 -0.0103 0.0291 -0.0002 -0.0010 
Forecasting a Better Future

Ad Hoc Met Meeting, May 26-27, 2004

Sensitivity test: r3px_acm2

O Like px_acm2, except:

– Uses CCM2 radiation instead of RRTM
Forecasting a Better Future

Ad Hoc Met Meeting, May 26-27, 2004

Winter r3px-acm2 stats (Episode 1, US 

Total stats bias abserr r2 ia rmse

Temperature (K) -0.78 -0.53 -0.016 -0.015 -0.6858 

Mixing Ratio (g/kg) 0.07 -0.01 -0.002 -0.001 -0.0078 

Rel. Humidity (%) 0.42 0.02 -0.014 -0.004 -0.0024 

Wind Speed (m/s) 0.01 -0.01 -0.010 -0.005 -0.0168 

Clouds (%) 0.02 0.17 0.004 0.003 0.0969 Wind stats bias abserr uerr verr uverr

Wind (deg, m/s) 0.067 -0.08 -0.0113 -0.0130 -0.0172 

Pcp Threshold (in) Acc Bias FAR POD CSI ETS 

0.01 0.0012 0.0050 0.0032 -0.0004 0.0017 0.0025 0.05 0.0008 0.0042 0.0027 0.0002 0.0019 0.0023 0.10 0.0009 0.0064 0.0045 0.0009 0.0036 0.0039 0.25 0.0001 0.0035 0.0020 -0.0005 0.0010 0.0011 0.50 -0.0001 -0.0031 -0.0021 0.0000 -0.0012 -0.0013 1.00 0.0000 0.0061 -0.0008 0.0031 0.0014 0.0013 
Forecasting a Better Future

Ad Hoc Met Meeting, May 26-27, 2004

Summer r3px_acm2 stats (Episode 2, US 

Total stats bias abserr r2 ia rmse

Temperature (K) -0.25 -0.05 -0.006 -0.001 -0.0755 

Mixing Ratio (g/kg) 0.00 0.02 0.003 0.001 0.0249 

Rel. Humidity (%) 0.19 -0.05 -0.005 -0.002 -0.0882 

Wind Speed (m/s) 0.01 0.00 -0.005 -0.003 -0.0063 

Clouds (%) -0.30 0.05 0.004 0.003 0.1060 Wind stats bias abserr uerr verr uverr

Wind (deg, m/s) 0.014 -0.02 -0.0051 -0.0053 -0.0073 

Pcp Threshold (in) Acc Bias FAR POD CSI ETS 

0.01 0.0002 0.0115 -0.0030 0.0060 0.0024 0.0007 0.05 -0.0032 -0.0120 -0.0058 0.0007 -0.0029 -0.0044 0.10 -0.0018 -0.0105 -0.0034 0.0009 -0.0017 -0.0023 0.25 0.0014 0.0211 0.0020 -0.0044 0.0001 0.0005 0.50 0.0035 0.1348 -0.0004 -0.0335 -0.0070 -0.0060 1.00 0.0036 0.3140 0.0148 -0.0224 0.0013 0.0020 
Forecasting a Better Future

Ad Hoc Met Meeting, May 26-27, 2004

A little RTOFS departure 
Forecasting a Better Future

Ad Hoc Met Meeting, May 26-27, 2004

Sensitivity test: noah_mrf4

O Like noah_mrf, except:

– Yubao version of the mrf scheme. 
Forecasting a Better Future

Ad Hoc Met Meeting, May 26-27, 2004

Winter noah-mrf4 stats (Episode 1, US 3

Total stats bias abserr r2 ia rmse

Temperature (K) -0.55 -0.23 -0.003 -0.007 -0.2867 

Mixing Ratio (g/kg) -0.11 -0.05 -0.006 -0.002 -0.0362 

Rel. Humidity (%) -8.59 -3.80 -0.059 -0.097 -4.1300 

Wind Speed (m/s) 0.00 0.05 0.026 0.003 0.0700 

Clouds (%) 2.69 0.46 0.021 0.014 0.9992 Wind stats bias abserr uerr verr uverr

Wind (deg, m/s) 0.529 0.49 0.0264 0.0355 0.0438 

Pcp Threshold (in) Acc Bias FAR POD CSI ETS 

0.01 -0.0035 -0.0139 -0.0078 0.0012 -0.0044 -0.0064 0.05 0.0025 0.0304 0.0116 -0.0074 0.0038 0.0052 0.10 0.0018 0.0293 0.0116 -0.0061 0.0048 0.0056 0.25 0.0019 0.0410 0.0236 -0.0026 0.0139 0.0148 0.50 0.0010 -0.0164 0.0271 0.0006 0.0156 0.0160 1.00 0.0004 -0.0549 0.0334 -0.0021 0.0133 0.0135 
Forecasting a Better Future

Ad Hoc Met Meeting, May 26-27, 2004

Summer noah_mrf4 stats (Episode 2, US 

Total stats bias abserr r2 ia rmse

Temperature (K) -0.50 -0.21 -0.007 -0.007 -0.2587 

Mixing Ratio (g/kg) 0.58 0.06 -0.011 0.006 0.0279 

Rel. Humidity (%) -2.38 -0.60 0.010 -0.005 -0.5744 

Wind Speed (m/s) 0.31 0.18 0.091 0.042 0.2203 

Clouds (%) -1.54 -0.08 -0.011 -0.010 -0.3203 Wind stats bias abserr uerr verr uverr

Wind (deg, m/s) 0.468 0.54 0.0311 0.0357 0.0472 

Pcp Threshold (in) Acc Bias FAR POD CSI ETS 

0.01 -0.0064 0.1141 -0.0365 0.0502 0.0124 -0.0080 0.05 -0.0184 -0.1460 -0.0375 0.0425 -0.0026 -0.0159 0.10 -0.0222 -0.1829 -0.0384 0.0395 -0.0086 -0.0186 0.25 -0.0200 -0.2106 -0.0411 0.0145 -0.0203 -0.0250 0.50 -0.0103 -0.1969 -0.0385 -0.0026 -0.0200 -0.0220 1.00 -0.0005 0.0182 -0.0186 -0.0269 -0.0136 -0.0136 
Forecasting a Better Future

Ad Hoc Met Meeting, May 26-27, 2004

Sensitivity test: noah_mrf4d

O Like noah_mrf4, except:

– Modified certain PBL-related paramete

to obtain higher PBL heights than noah_mrf4 (but lower than noah_mrf). 
Forecasting a Better Future

Ad Hoc Met Meeting, May 26-27, 2004

Winter noah-mrf4d stats (Episode 1, US 

Total stats bias abserr r2 ia rmse

Temperature (K) 0.06 0.01 -0.003 0.000 0.0098 

Mixing Ratio (g/kg) 0.10 0.04 0.008 0.003 0.0418 

Rel. Humidity (%) 2.60 1.57 0.028 0.040 1.6953 

Wind Speed (m/s) -0.10 0.00 0.005 0.006 -0.0106 

Clouds (%) -0.79 -0.14 -0.004 -0.005 -0.1215 Wind stats bias abserr uerr verr uverr

Wind (deg, m/s) -0.262 -0.13 -0.0126 -0.0149 -0.0194 

Pcp Threshold (in) Acc Bias FAR POD CSI ETS 

0.01 -0.0096 -0.0455 -0.0216 0.0067 -0.0104 -0.0162 0.05 -0.0049 -0.0450 -0.0203 0.0070 -0.0099 -0.0124 0.10 -0.0021 -0.0335 -0.0133 0.0069 -0.0055 -0.0065 0.25 -0.0011 -0.0333 -0.0155 0.0063 -0.0066 -0.0071 0.50 -0.0004 0.0219 -0.0128 0.0025 -0.0057 -0.0060 1.00 -0.0002 -0.0071 -0.0149 -0.0172 -0.0156 -0.0157 
Forecasting a Better Future

Ad Hoc Met Meeting, May 26-27, 2004

Summer noah_mrf4d stats (Episode 2, U

Total stats bias abserr r2 ia rmse

Temperature (K) 0.12 0.01 -0.002 0.001 0.0153 

Mixing Ratio (g/kg) 0.10 0.05 0.003 0.002 0.0708 

Rel. Humidity (%) 2.86 0.83 0.006 0.013 0.9292 

Wind Speed (m/s) 0.02 0.01 0.007 0.007 0.0109 

Clouds (%) 0.75 -0.04 0.004 0.003 0.1620 Wind stats bias abserr uerr verr uverr

Wind (deg, m/s) -0.297 -0.02 -0.0007 0.0040 0.0024 

Pcp Threshold (in) Acc Bias FAR POD CSI ETS 

0.01 0.0073 -0.0336 0.0159 -0.0090 0.0036 0.0116 0.05 0.0090 0.0444 0.0152 -0.0074 0.0062 0.0109 0.10 0.0100 0.0640 0.0163 -0.0085 0.0072 0.0109 0.25 0.0098 0.0821 0.0207 0.0036 0.0134 0.0153 0.50 0.0049 0.0713 0.0207 0.0128 0.0136 0.0144 1.00 0.0005 -0.0095 0.0182 0.0247 0.0129 0.0129 
Forecasting a Better Future

Ad Hoc Met Meeting, May 26-27, 2004

PBL trace
Forecasting a Better Future

Ad Hoc Met Meeting, May 26-27, 2004

Sensitivity test: noah_mrf4f

O Like noah_mrf4d, except:

– Uses the (MM5 default) top soil option 

TERRAIN rather than BotSoil option. Rfor episode 2 only. 
Forecasting a Better Future

Ad Hoc Met Meeting, May 26-27, 2004

Summer noah-mrf4f stats (Episode 2, US 

Total stats bias abserr r2 ia rmse

Temperature (K) -0.02 0.00 0.000 -0.001 -0.0049 

Mixing Ratio (g/kg) 0.05 -0.01 -0.001 0.000 -0.0050 

Rel. Humidity (%) -0.32 -0.13 -0.004 -0.003 -0.1298 

Wind Speed (m/s) 0.00 0.00 -0.001 0.000 -0.0013 

Clouds (%) 0.00 0.00 0.000 0.000 0.0101 Wind stats bias abserr uerr verr uverr

Wind (deg, m/s) -0.040 -0.02 -0.0010 0.0000 -0.0007 

Pcp Threshold (in) Acc Bias FAR POD CSI ETS 

0.01 0.0006 0.0051 -0.0005 0.0032 0.0018 0.0013 0.05 -0.0015 -0.0095 -0.0027 0.0024 -0.0006 -0.0015 0.10 -0.0020 -0.0113 -0.0034 0.0009 -0.0018 -0.0024 0.25 -0.0018 -0.0084 -0.0048 -0.0044 -0.0040 -0.0043 0.50 -0.0009 -0.0245 -0.0025 0.0030 -0.0006 -0.0008 1.00 -0.0003 -0.0311 -0.0029 0.0022 -0.0006 -0.0007 
Forecasting a Better Future

Ad Hoc Met Meeting, May 26-27, 2004

Wind Speed Trace
Forecasting a Better Future

Ad Hoc Met Meeting, May 26-27, 2004

And now back to our regul

scheduled programming. 
Forecasting a Better Future

Ad Hoc Met Meeting, May 26-27, 2004

MM5 preferred options

O Pleim-Xiu land-surface scheme/ACM 

pbl

O RRTM radiationO Kain-Fritsch 2 cloud parameterizatioO Reisner 1 microphysics

– Similar results to Reisner 2 without the 

computational/disk expense

O LITTLE_R rather than RAWINSO Snow effects set to 1 (per Jon Pleim)O Nudging as follows:

– 2.5E-4 (winds sfc/aloft, temp aloft) at 36 km– 1.0E-4 (winds sfc/aloft, temp aloft) at 12 km– 1.0E-5 (moisture aloft at 36/12 km)