Airlines Sector Review

Airlines

Industry Report 

Daniel McKenzie, CFA Trading Desk 

(312) 334-4416 (866) 622-7304 

dmckenzie@nextgenres.com 

www.nextgenres.com 

November 17, 2009 

 

 Market Share Study for the United States, 

Europe, Latin America, and Japan 

Please refer to the last page of this report for all disclosures. 

Additional information available upon request. 

In this report, we analyze the market share trends for the top 5 competitors at 

108 major airports in the United States, Europe, Latin America, and Japan. 

• The severe macro backdrop is forcing US legacy airlines to continue their 

strategy of retrenching to core strengths. While there are a few exceptions, 

legacy carriers on balance preserved market share at core hubs. The exceptions 

include airlines which suffer from either a higher cost structure or a weaker 

market position. 

• While low cost airlines (LCAs) failed to win meaningful market share overall in 

this year’s study, profits from reoptimized networks have enabled them to 

subsidize growth into prime (vs secondary) airports. Growth in these prime 

airports suggest that further capitulation by legacy carriers is not over and 

separately, that LCA revenues are poised to become more levered to the 

economic cycle. 

• Tough strategic choices continue to loom for legacy airlines, such as whether 

to shrink further, use their cash to defend markets, or consolidate. The cash 

consumed in either building a market presence or defending a market against 

competitors is essentially a hidden capital expenditure which for many, there is 

little to no return. Hence our view that further consolidation is likely. 

Transatlantic: The recent EU/United States Open Skies agreement has 

fostered more competition on the transatlantic, so we assessed the market share 

trends by carrier and by alliance. SkyTeam ranks as the largest alliance with 

32% of the transatlantic market share, and is dominant at 3 of Europe’s top 5 

destinations (from the US). And new this year, SkyTeam today now has about 

10% of the market share at London Heathrow, the No. 1 transatlantic destination. 

Separately, our market share analysis found alliance dominance uneven among 

the top, major hub markets, with SkyTeam and Star more dominant than 

oneWorld. 

Other Trends in Europe: The low cost carrier revolution in Europe is well 

underway, with Ryanair particularly dominant in its top 5 markets. easyJet is less 

so, but its continuing to take market share. Interestingly, Ryanair didn’t even 

serve 2 of its top 5 markets as recently as 2001. However, LCAs overall in 

Europe have so far been unable to win meaningful market share at prime 

airports. 

Key Trends in Latin America: Latin America represents a bright spot in the 

global aviation industry, a part of the world where it’s not a zero sum game 

when an airline adds capacity. While there is a low cost carrier revolution 

occurring across the region, we found stable or even improving market share 

trends for most established carriers with few exceptions. 

Japan: Lastly, given the competition by both SkyTeam and oneWorld to 

develop a deeper relationship with JAL, we detail the market share trends for 

Japan’s Top 5 airports. For 2009, we found All Nippon Airways and JAL 

(including its subsidiaries) about the same size, with each controlling 39.5% 

of the seat share in Japan. 
 Airlines Sector Review

Daniel McKenzie, CFA (312) 334-4416 dmckenzie@nextgenres.com 2

Why Market Share is Important (The Hidden Capital Expenditure) 

The correlation between market share and earnings is not strong in the airline industry. However, we view our 

market share study as an essential investment tool because it’s an indicator of potentially improving or diminishing 

revenue and hence, profit leverage. 

Separately, the cash consumed in either building a market presence or defending a market against competitors 

(low cost or other) is essentially a hidden capital expenditure for which there may or may not be a return. Since it 

can take a decade or longer to win or lose a market, management and labor teams that misread the competitive 

landscape and accept a higher cost structure near-term in the hopes others will “catch up” further out is a game that 

ends in failure more often than not (as the figures below illustrate). 

While not detailed here, we have identified in past studies a direct correlation between hub dominance and the yield 

premium a carrier can extract relative to competitors. The theory supporting our past empirical findings: a dominant 

carrier that adds incremental capacity garners a disproportionate increase in revenues, in part from a schedule that 

becomes more appealing to higher yielding business travelers willing to pay more for the more attractive schedule 

(i.e. convenience). Moreover, a more appealing schedule in turn engenders greater loyalty. A caveat to this general 

rule of course is the level or intensity of competition at alternative, substitute airports. 

Consistent and gradual market share losses, on the other hand, are a red flag for revenue headwinds around. 

Examples of hubs that have either shrunk dramatically or in a few cases even collapsed given aggressive low cost 

carrier growth include: US Airways at Baltimore, Pittsburgh and Columbus; UAL at Denver and Los Angeles; and 

Delta at DFW. Given the high fixed-cost nature of a hub, a small loss of traffic can have a levered impact on 

revenues and profits and subsequently, undermine hub fundamentals. As a result, market share trends are an 

important consideration in our individual company analysis. 

Note that aggressive low cost carrier growth at a legacy carrier hub does not mean a legacy carrier is automatically 

at risk of having to downsize. The lack of gate availability represents one of the greatest operating barriers to entry 

in the airline industry. For example, at Los Angeles (LAX) and Philadelphia, gates are hard to come by which in turn 

limits low cost carrier growth opportunities in these markets. 

Key Conclusions for the US Airlines 

Exhibit 1: Low Cost Airline (LCA) Domestic Market Share by Year 

Based on average scheduled weekly seats for all airlines, nonstop flights within United States and Caribbean 

Airline 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009E

Southwest 12.0% 13.2% 13.8% 14.3% 14.1% 14.5% 15.6% 16.3% 17.3% 17.4%

AirTran 1.1% 1.3% 1.6% 2.0% 2.2% 2.4% 3.0% 3.3% 3.4% 3.5%

jetBlue 0.1% 0.4% 0.8% 1.2% 1.5% 1.8% 2.4% 2.8% 3.0% 3.3%

Frontier 0.5% 0.6% 0.8% 0.9% 1.1% 1.2% 1.4% 1.5% 1.6% 1.6%

Spirit Airlines 0.4% 0.5% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.7% 0.8% 0.9% 0.8%

Allegiant Air 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.4% 0.4% 0.6%

Virgin America 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.4% 0.5%

Sun Country 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%

USA 3000 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%

Total LCA's 14.5% 16.3% 17.6% 19.2% 19.8% 21.1% 23.8% 25.6% 27.3% 28.0%

Note: Industry total defined as 40 major, regional, and low cost airlines. 

Source: APGDat (Innovata – data the week of 10/24/09) and Nextgen estimates 

When viewed across time, the problems of a high cost structure are apparent. Carriers with higher costs relative to 

key competitors lost market share; carriers with low costs took market share – almost without exception. 

In 2009, low cost carrier market share gains have been sluggish, with the overall gain just 0.7% points greater than 

2008 – not a whole lot. We attribute it to greater cost pressures now being faced by the low cost carriers and 

naturally, the severe macro backdrop. 
 Airlines Sector Review

Daniel McKenzie, CFA (312) 334-4416 dmckenzie@nextgenres.com 3

In general, legacy carriers maintained market share across their hub structures with the exception of Delta, which 

benefitted from larger gains given its merger with Northwest. Of the legacy carriers, Delta is the most dominant, 

with a hub system market share of 77.3%. Continental closely follows Delta at 76.4%, while United (at 40.2%) and 

Alaska (at 47.6%) were the least dominant in their hub systems. 

Until recently, legacy airlines’ long-term gate control has effectively represented a key operating barrier to entry for 

low cost airlines. However, AIR 21 (mandated by Congress in 2000), has been increasing competition at airports 

where one or two airlines control more than 50% of the market share (which describes the majority of hubs), and 

makes governmental funds for airports contingent upon whether an airport is taking satisfactory steps to make 

gates available to new competitors. San Francisco is a good example; SFO was an already congested airport, yet 

made gates available for Virgin America and Southwest, both of which were new entrants to the airport in 2007. 

Some market share stories are well known, some less so, but the wins and losses by carrier over our time horizon 

offer insight about each airline’s strategy and where they are dedicating resources. 

Carrier Specific Commentary 

Southwest 

In 2009, Southwest is shrinking its capacity about 5%, but the industry is shrinking more. Net net, in its top 7 

markets (Baltimore, Chicago Midway, Las Vegas, Oakland, Phoenix, Los Angeles, and Orlando), Southwest’s 

overall market share was relatively unchanged. Southwest lost market share at Chicago Midway (-2.0% points 

YoY), Baltimore (-1.4% pts), Phoenix (-1.1% pts), and Orlando (-0.7% pts), while gained market share at Oakland 

(+4.7% pts), Las Vegas (+1.2% pts), and Los Angeles (LAX +0.2% pts). And finally, as Southwest enters more 

primary airports, we anticipate revenues for the carrier will become more levered as it increases its exposure to 

corporate travelers. For 2009: 

■ Fast Gains: Denver, Ft. Lauderdale, San Francisco, St. Louis, San Jose 

■ Slower/steady Gains: Los Angeles Metro, Miami Metro, Cleveland, Las Vegas, Pittsburgh, San Francisco metro area 

■ Modest Share loss: Baltimore, Houston (Hobby), Orlando, Philadelphia, Salt Lake City, Seattle 

JetBlue 

For 2009, we found jetBlue realizing: 

■ Gains at Boston, New York Metro, Miami Metro, Ft. Lauderdale, and Orlando; 

■ Modest share losses at Washington (Dulles) and Oakland 

AirTran 

While Atlanta is AirTran’s principal hub, the carrier also has significant operations at Baltimore and Orlando, and is 

expanding aggressively in Milwaukee. In 2009, AirTran’s market share in Milwaukee was 23.0%, up from 12.9% in 

2008. For 2009: 

■ Gains: Baltimore, Cleveland Metro, Milwaukee, Orlando, Pittsburgh 

■ Modest share Loss: Atlanta, New York (LaGuardia) 

Alaska Air Group 

Given that 2 of the top 5 competitors at Anchorage are mileage partners, Alaska’s hub at Anchorage, where the 

carrier is dominant and winning market share, is a unique asset. At Seattle, Alaska won a slight market share 

advantage to its toughest competitor, Southwest, while market share trends at Portland are largely unchanged. 

AMR 

AMR’s overall market share trends were essentially flat, while in the carrier’s key nonhub markets (Boston, New 

York JFK, St Louis, San Jose), results were mixed. AMR in September announced plans to downsize St. Louis, 

and subsequently lost 3.3% points of market share, almost exclusively to Southwest. For 2009: 

■ No gains jumped out at us, though AMR maintained its market share at Dallas and Miami 

■ Modest share loss: Chicago (O’Hare), New York (LaGuardia & JFK), and St. Louis 
 Airlines Sector Review

Daniel McKenzie, CFA (312) 334-4416 dmckenzie@nextgenres.com 4

Continental 

Despite losing market share in two hubs, Continental’s overall [weighted average] market share in 2009 remained 

unchanged from 2008. Continental lost 2.3% points of market share at Cleveland (to Southwest and Delta) and 

1.3% points of share at Houston, however, the carrier managed to increase market share in Newark by 0.8% pts. 

Looking back to 2000, Continental has gained 10.6% points of market share without the benefit of M&A. 

Delta 

Given its merger with Northwest, Delta’s dominance increased across its system. 

■ Northwest merger related gains at: Atlanta, Memphis, Minneapolis, Detroit, New York, & Salt Lake City 

■ And despite downsizing Cincinnati by 25% in 2009, Delta’s market share remained relatively unchanged 

UAL 

For 2009, UAL’s market share across its hub system was relatively unchanged (-0.2% points YoY). However, UAL’s 

market share at Denver deteriorated 2.2% points this year while Southwest, a relative newcomer to Denver, gained 4.7% 

points. Offsetting the loss were modest market share gains at its Washington (Dulles) and Chicago (O’Hare) hubs. 

US Airways 

Over the past few years, US Airways has dehubbed Columbus, Las Vegas, and Pittsburgh. At Phoenix and 

Philadelphia, US Airways gained a small amount of share against Southwest. 

Methodology & Caveats 

There are a number of ways to measure market share, including departures, enplanements, ASMs (available seat 

miles), and revenues. The problem with revenues and enplanements is the 4-5 month lag in data availability, while 

departures fail to account for aircraft size. As for an assessment using ASMs, market share distortions can result 

from the stage-length impact of a carrier’s network, which can mask underlying low cost carrier encroachment 

(given that low cost carriers tend to fly shorter stage-lengths). 

As a result, we used scheduled seat data which is modestly forward looking (by about 3 months) so provides 

investors with a real-time perspective on whether a competitor may be creeping up from behind. 

One caveat to our seat count approach is that it does not take into consideration frequency: For example, if Delta 

has 9 flights a day, and 3 of those flights depart after JetBlue’s last flight, and Delta cancels 2 of those last 3 flights, 

the total number of seats are reduced in the market, but Delta’s cuts may not affect the head-to-head competitive 

dynamic to the same extent as if it cut flights competing head–to-head with JetBlue. On the other hand, with fewer 

seats in the market, we believe carriers will revenue manage the existing seats more carefully and reduce the 

amount of inventory in the “low fare” buckets. 

The figures below show (by year, 2000 – 2009E) the scheduled seats provided by the airline as a percentage of the 

total scheduled seats by all airlines for each airport. Where more than one airport exists in a metropolitan area, we 

provide separate analyses of each airport, as well aggregate data which combines all airports within a metro area. 

That is, an investor simply looking at a hub carrier’s seat market share at its hub airport may miss that the hub 

carrier is losing overall local metropolitan market share to its competitors across town (e.g. UAL vs Southwest at 

Los Angeles). 
 Airlines Sector Review

Daniel McKenzie, CFA (312) 334-4416 dmckenzie@nextgenres.com 5

Exhibit 2: Percentage of Scheduled Seats by Airport 

Based on departing seats for all non-stop destinations by airport, includes regional partner flying 

Carrier Airport 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009E

AirTran Atlanta 9.1% 10.1% 10.9% 13.0% 13.3% 14.1% 17.7% 19.3% 19.3% 18.2%

System 9.1% 10.1% 10.9% 13.0% 13.3% 14.1% 17.7% 19.3% 19.3% 18.2% 1.0% 0.8% 2.1% 0.3% 0.7% 3.6% 1.6% 0.1% -1.1%

Alaska Seattle 43.9% 43.4% 45.1% 48.0% 49.0% 49.2% 49.7% 49.9% 49.7% 50.2%

Anchorage 63.2% 63.7% 65.5% 62.5% 56.3% 55.2% 58.8% 60.1% 58.5% 62.3%

Portland 36.0% 37.5% 37.8% 38.7% 38.7% 37.2% 36.2% 37.3% 36.8% 36.1%

System 43.7% 44.0% 45.2% 46.9% 46.8% 46.4% 46.7% 47.3% 47.0% 47.6% 0.3% 1.2% 1.7% -0.1% -0.5% 0.4% 0.6% -0.4% 0.6%

American Chicago(O'Hare) 34.5% 35.5% 35.6% 34.9% 36.8% 37.3% 36.9% 36.5% 36.6% 35.3%

Dallas/Ft. Worth 68.3% 68.3% 68.1% 70.1% 72.0% 83.3% 84.5% 84.9% 86.0% 86.5%

Miami (MIA) 51.9% 52.9% 54.1% 56.8% 61.1% 65.6% 66.6% 67.7% 69.4% 69.1%

St. Louis (STL) 1.9% 7.4% 69.0% 63.9% 46.5% 47.3% 47.0% 43.7% 40.0% 34.7%

System 41.6% 43.2% 53.5% 53.3% 53.4% 57.9% 58.3% 58.2% 58.7% 58.7% 1.7% 10.3% -0.2% 0.1% 4.5% 0.4% -0.1% 0.6% 0.0%

Continental Cleveland 57.8% 58.8% 57.6% 58.6% 59.3% 58.4% 61.4% 63.7% 66.8% 64.5%

Houston 79.7% 80.8% 81.5% 81.9% 82.3% 83.6% 86.0% 86.8% 86.5% 85.2%

Newark 56.3% 56.6% 58.3% 60.2% 62.2% 63.8% 67.1% 68.9% 69.4% 70.2%

System 65.8% 66.9% 68.2% 69.4% 70.6% 71.9% 75.0% 76.4% 76.8% 76.4% 1.1% 1.4% 1.2% 1.1% 1.4% 3.1% 1.4% 0.4% -0.3%

Delta Atlanta 77.4% 77.8% 78.5% 77.4% 77.6% 76.9% 72.8% 71.7% 72.1% 75.0%

Cincinnati 91.7% 91.7% 92.2% 92.9% 93.6% 93.7% 90.2% 89.3% 88.2% 87.8%

New York (JFK) 17.9% 16.2% 15.3% 15.5% 17.7% 19.7% 18.2% 20.9% 22.6% 25.0%

Detroit 3.1% 3.0% 2.7% 2.6% 3.0% 2.8% 2.3% 2.1% 14.5% 79.6%

Memphis 8.9% 8.1% 6.9% 6.9% 7.6% 6.9% 5.9% 5.1% 17.6% 85.0%

Minneapolis/St. Paul 2.7% 2.6% 2.8% 2.8% 2.9% 2.7% 2.3% 2.2% 14.9% 78.8%

Salt Lake City 74.2% 72.7% 72.6% 71.5% 70.4% 73.8% 71.0% 70.3% 67.1% 71.3%

System1 79.8% 79.7% 80.3% 79.5% 79.7% 79.5% 74.9% 73.7% 73.1% 77.3% -0.1% 0.6% -0.8% 0.2% -0.2% -4.7% -1.2% -0.6% 4.2%

JetBlue JFK 2.3% 9.5% 14.9% 19.6% 20.8% 22.5% 26.0% 27.1% 25.2% 25.6%

Boston 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.7% 5.9% 11.1% 12.3% 14.0% 14.7%

System 1.2% 4.8% 7.9% 11.0% 13.3% 15.5% 19.9% 21.5% 21.1% 21.6% 3.6% 3.1% 3.1% 2.3% 2.1% 4.4% 1.6% -0.4% 0.5%

Southwest Baltimore 35.0% 40.2% 46.0% 51.2% 51.0% 52.0% 54.4% 56.3% 56.1% 54.7%

(Top 7 Cities) Chicago (Midway) 45.5% 47.1% 45.0% 43.6% 44.0% 65.0% 73.7% 77.9% 85.6% 83.6%

Las Vegas 31.9% 35.4% 36.3% 37.8% 35.8% 35.6% 38.1% 39.3% 42.7% 43.8%

Oakland 67.0% 65.4% 63.4% 60.7% 59.8% 62.4% 64.6% 66.1% 73.4% 78.1%

Phoenix 29.3% 30.9% 32.0% 32.3% 32.6% 33.0% 34.2% 34.3% 34.9% 33.7%

Los Angeles (LAX) 11.7% 12.0% 13.9% 14.2% 13.8% 14.8% 14.6% 14.5% 15.4% 15.6%

Orlando 10.8% 13.9% 16.8% 18.4% 17.5% 20.0% 21.6% 24.2% 25.5% 24.8%

System 25.4% 27.8% 30.5% 31.6% 31.1% 33.6% 35.7% 36.8% 38.5% 38.3% 2.4% 2.7% 1.1% -0.5% 2.6% 2.0% 1.1% 1.7% -0.2%

United Chicago (O'Hare) 47.8% 46.4% 48.1% 49.2% 47.8% 47.1% 47.8% 47.2% 46.1% 47.2%

Denver 70.2% 66.7% 60.2% 57.5% 56.4% 54.7% 54.1% 51.5% 46.7% 44.4%

San Francisco (SFO) 49.5% 49.0% 49.1% 49.3% 49.2% 48.8% 49.7% 47.0% 42.6% 40.9%

Los Angeles 27.1% 24.0% 22.3% 21.5% 21.1% 19.7% 20.7% 19.1% 18.2% 17.8%

Washington 56.5% 59.9% 57.3% 58.8% 53.2% 49.3% 63.9% 62.0% 61.8% 64.0%

System 46.5% 44.8% 44.3% 44.1% 43.3% 42.0% 43.9% 42.4% 40.4% 40.2% -1.6% -0.6% -0.2% -0.9% -1.3% 2.0% -1.5% -2.0% -0.2%

US Airways Charlotte 89.1% 89.8% 90.6% 88.6% 88.5% 88.6% 87.6% 87.0% 87.7% 88.3%

Las Vegas2 19.9% 18.6% 17.1% 19.1% 20.4% 19.2% 23.1% 20.5% 16.8% 12.8%

Phoenix 44.9% 44.7% 45.4% 47.1% 46.2% 47.1% 45.4% 44.9% 44.7% 45.8%

Pittsburgh2 86.2% 85.6% 86.8% 81.6% 77.6% 63.0% 54.8% 46.5% 34.0% 28.8%

Philadelphia 65.3% 68.5% 69.5% 69.0% 66.0% 64.9% 62.0% 61.8% 62.9% 64.6%

System 57.6% 58.7% 58.4% 56.8% 54.9% 53.4% 51.7% 50.5% 64.0% 65.4% 1.1% -0.3% -1.6% -1.9% -1.5% -1.7% -1.2% 13.4% 1.5%

Industry Weighted Avg (Excl LCA's) 53.8% 54.3% 57.0% 56.9% 56.3% 56.9% 56.5% 55.7% 57.3% 59.8%

1Prior to the Delta/Northwest merger on 10/29/08, system percentages exclude New York (JFK), Detroit, Memphis, and Minneapolis/St Paul. 

2Prior to Oct 2005, Las Vegas percentages reflect America West’s market share; Las Vegas & Pittsburg dehubbed & are excluded from 2008/09 

system avg. Unless noted, the system is a weighted average of hub system. Source: APGDat (Innovata–data are as of 10/24/09) & Nextgen ests.
 Airlines Sector Review

Daniel McKenzie, CFA (312) 334-4416 dmckenzie@nextgenres.com 6

Exhibit 3: Seat Share Study by Metropolitan Area 

Based on departing seats for all non-stop destinations from hub cities, sorted by 2009E; includes regional partner flying 

Key 

Airline Hub Carrier 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009E

American Chicago Metro United 38.9% 37.7% 37.9% 37.8% 36.9% 37.3% 37.3% 36.6% 36.2% 36.7%

(ORD, MDW) American 28.3% 29.0% 28.3% 27.2% 28.8% 29.6% 28.8% 28.3% 28.8% 27.4%

Southwest 8.4% 8.9% 9.6% 10.1% 10.0% 13.8% 15.9% 17.3% 18.3% 18.7%

Delta 2.6% 2.4% 2.3% 2.1% 2.0% 1.7% 1.8% 1.9% 2.4% 4.8%

US Airways 2.0% 1.8% 1.6% 1.4% 1.3% 1.5% 2.0% 1.9% 2.1% 2.1%

Dallas Metro American 59.4% 59.8% 59.1% 60.9% 63.2% 73.1% 73.8% 73.0% 72.9% 73.6%

(DFW, DAL) Southwest 12.0% 12.1% 12.7% 12.8% 12.0% 11.9% 12.3% 13.6% 14.8% 14.5%

Delta 16.0% 16.4% 17.2% 16.2% 14.6% 3.2% 2.1% 2.0% 2.1% 3.0%

US Airways 1.0% 1.0% 1.1% 1.0% 1.0% 1.6% 2.3% 2.5% 2.2% 2.3%

Continental 2.1% 2.1% 1.8% 1.6% 1.5% 1.8% 1.9% 1.9% 1.8% 1.7%

Miami Metro American 35.8% 35.0% 36.4% 37.0% 39.0% 38.1% 39.3% 39.1% 40.4% 40.3%

(MIA,FLL,PBI) Delta 13.1% 13.4% 13.2% 13.5% 12.9% 13.2% 10.7% 9.6% 8.6% 10.3%

Southwest 3.5% 5.5% 5.9% 6.2% 6.1% 6.2% 6.7% 6.9% 7.2% 7.8%

Spirit 1.6% 2.0% 2.5% 2.4% 2.9% 3.3% 3.8% 5.6% 7.1% 7.1%

jetBlue 0.4% 1.3% 2.4% 3.3% 3.8% 5.0% 5.5% 5.8% 6.3% 7.0%

Continental Cleveland Metro Continental 54.9% 55.3% 53.4% 53.4% 53.1% 50.9% 53.3% 56.3% 59.4% 56.4%

(CLE,CAK) Southwest 8.9% 10.0% 10.7% 10.7% 10.2% 10.6% 11.3% 10.9% 9.6% 10.1%

Delta 7.0% 6.6% 7.3% 7.8% 8.8% 8.1% 7.1% 6.5% 6.6% 9.6%

US Airways 7.3% 6.4% 5.5% 4.2% 3.6% 4.9% 4.9% 5.0% 5.5% 6.1%

AirTran 1.4% 1.5% 2.1% 3.7% 4.7% 5.3% 5.6% 5.4% 5.1% 5.8%

Houston Metro Continental 60.3% 61.2% 62.0% 62.2% 63.0% 65.0% 67.7% 67.9% 67.5% 66.6%

(HOU,IAH,EFD) Southwest 21.6% 21.6% 21.5% 21.6% 21.1% 19.9% 19.0% 19.6% 20.1% 19.7%

Delta 3.0% 2.9% 3.3% 3.4% 3.6% 2.4% 2.0% 1.9% 2.2% 3.3%

American 4.5% 4.4% 3.8% 3.2% 3.2% 3.6% 2.9% 2.3% 2.2% 2.5%

US Airways 1.6% 1.6% 1.4% 1.3% 1.2% 1.4% 1.6% 1.4% 1.5% 1.6%

New York Metro Continental 21.6% 21.2% 21.8% 21.8% 21.9% 21.5% 22.6% 22.9% 23.2% 23.8%

(JFK,LGA, EWR) Delta 15.0% 14.2% 14.8% 15.1% 15.2% 15.5% 14.1% 15.3% 16.3% 16.9%

jetBlue 0.8% 2.9% 4.9% 6.7% 7.7% 9.3% 11.4% 12.5% 12.0% 12.9%

American 14.2% 19.0% 17.4% 17.1% 16.8% 16.2% 14.9% 14.0% 13.5% 12.7%

US Airways 9.6% 9.2% 8.6% 7.3% 7.0% 7.5% 8.0% 7.0% 6.9% 7.3%

Delta Detroit Metro Delta 3.0% 3.0% 2.9% 2.8% 3.4% 3.2% 2.5% 2.4% 14.6% 78.3%

(DTW,FNT) Southwest 3.3% 3.4% 3.4% 3.2% 2.9% 2.9% 3.2% 4.3% 3.9% 3.8%

Spirit 2.1% 2.9% 4.2% 4.3% 4.1% 3.7% 4.7% 4.7% 4.0% 3.5%

American 2.3% 3.5% 3.6% 3.4% 2.9% 2.8% 3.0% 3.2% 3.2% 3.2%

US Airways 2.1% 2.1% 2.0% 1.6% 1.2% 1.9% 2.7% 2.8% 2.8% 3.1%

Southwest Los Angeles Metro Southwest 17.4% 18.3% 21.3% 21.5% 21.4% 22.4% 22.5% 21.8% 22.6% 24.3%

(BUR,LAX,LGB, United 24.1% 21.3% 18.9% 17.9% 17.6% 16.4% 17.1% 15.3% 14.3% 14.2%

ONT,SNA) American 14.4% 15.9% 15.7% 14.7% 14.6% 14.1% 13.7% 13.1% 13.0% 13.7%

Delta 7.2% 7.3% 7.2% 7.0% 7.1% 7.2% 6.7% 7.7% 7.5% 8.9%

Alaska 5.3% 5.1% 6.1% 6.5% 6.6% 6.5% 6.9% 6.9% 6.5% 6.4%

San Francisco Metro Southwest 20.0% 20.4% 22.9% 24.1% 23.8% 25.6% 26.4% 27.4% 30.1% 30.4%

(SFO,OAK,SJC) United 34.5% 32.2% 30.5% 30.1% 30.5% 29.5% 29.8% 28.5% 27.3% 27.2%

American 12.5% 13.8% 13.2% 10.8% 10.5% 9.3% 9.1% 8.5% 7.7% 7.3%

Delta 5.1% 5.1% 4.8% 4.7% 5.0% 4.9% 4.5% 4.5% 4.0% 6.0%

Alaska 6.5% 6.4% 6.9% 7.0% 6.6% 6.6% 6.6% 6.7% 5.5% 4.6%

Washington Metro United 24.6% 23.8% 23.6% 22.3% 23.2% 22.0% 25.2% 25.6% 25.7% 26.5%

(BWI,DCA,IAD) Southwest 11.4% 14.1% 17.4% 19.5% 17.7% 16.8% 18.8% 20.3% 19.7% 19.4%

US Airways 27.1% 22.7% 16.3% 15.0% 14.3% 15.5% 16.9% 16.2% 16.0% 15.4%

Delta 10.1% 10.4% 11.1% 10.9% 9.3% 8.2% 8.0% 7.9% 8.9% 11.9%

American 6.6% 8.4% 9.6% 9.5% 7.9% 7.8% 8.1% 7.5% 7.2% 7.4%

Several Boston Metro US Airways 24.3% 21.9% 21.5% 19.4% 18.7% 19.4% 19.8% 18.7% 18.5% 18.2%

(BOS,BED,ORH, Delta 17.7% 17.1% 18.7% 19.3% 17.6% 17.3% 14.8% 14.9% 15.4% 17.1%

MHT,PVD,PSM) Southwest 6.2% 7.1% 8.9% 9.9% 10.2% 11.7% 11.7% 12.6% 12.8% 12.9%

American 16.5% 18.7% 16.9% 16.9% 16.4% 14.3% 12.7% 11.9% 11.9% 12.2%

jetBlue 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.7% 4.2% 8.2% 9.2% 10.6% 11.5%

Source: APGDat (Innovata – data the week of 10/24/09) and Nextgen estimates 
 Airlines Sector Review

Daniel McKenzie, CFA (312) 334-4416 dmckenzie@nextgenres.com 7

Exhibit 4: Seat Share Study – Hub Airports/Southwest Top Markets 

Based on departing seats for all non-stop destinations from hub cities, sorted by 2009E; includes regional partner flying 

Hub or Major Market Carrier 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009E

Anchorage Alaska 63.2% 63.7% 65.5% 62.5% 56.3% 55.2% 58.8% 60.1% 58.5% 62.3%

(ANC) Era Aviation 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 6.3% 8.6% 8.5% 9.2% 8.9% 9.9% 10.3%

 Delta 9.1% 8.1% 6.7% 4.7% 4.8% 5.1% 3.6% 3.7% 4.2% 8.0%

 Penair 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.8% 3.4% 4.0% 4.1% 4.8% 4.9%

 Continental 1.9% 2.8% 3.5% 3.9% 4.4% 4.4% 4.0% 4.8% 4.7% 4.8%

Atlanta Delta 77.4% 77.8% 78.5% 77.4% 77.6% 76.9% 72.8% 71.7% 72.1% 75.0%

(ATL) AirTran 9.1% 10.1% 10.9% 13.0% 13.3% 14.1% 17.7% 19.3% 19.3% 18.2%

 American 1.8% 2.2% 2.1% 2.1% 2.0% 2.2% 2.4% 2.4% 2.3% 2.0%

 US Airways 1.9% 1.6% 1.4% 1.1% 0.8% 0.9% 1.3% 1.3% 1.3% 1.1%

 Continental 1.6% 1.5% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.1% 1.3% 1.2% 1.2% 1.0%

Baltimore Southwest 35.0% 40.2% 46.0% 51.2% 51.0% 52.0% 54.4% 56.3% 56.1% 54.7%

(BWI) AirTran 0.0% 0.1% 6.0% 7.9% 8.7% 9.9% 11.3% 11.9% 13.6% 15.6%

 Delta 5.6% 5.7% 6.9% 6.3% 6.3% 6.4% 5.7% 6.0% 6.9% 10.3%

 US Airways 29.9% 26.8% 11.4% 7.1% 7.2% 7.4% 7.1% 6.4% 6.2% 5.8%

United 6.3% 5.5% 6.5% 5.7% 6.3% 5.0% 5.6% 5.4% 5.0% 5.1%

Boston Delta 19.9% 20.0% 21.4% 22.0% 20.5% 20.6% 17.9% 17.7% 17.4% 19.5%

(BOS) US Airways 22.9% 21.2% 20.1% 18.0% 17.1% 17.9% 17.8% 17.9% 18.0% 17.4%

American 19.2% 21.9% 21.8% 22.2% 21.2% 18.8% 16.7% 15.7% 15.5% 15.6%

 jetBlue 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.7% 5.9% 11.1% 12.3% 14.0% 14.7%

 United 10.8% 10.0% 9.8% 9.2% 8.6% 8.0% 9.3% 8.9% 8.4% 8.3%

Charlotte US Airways 89.1% 89.8% 90.6% 88.6% 88.5% 88.6% 87.6% 87.0% 87.7% 88.3%

(CLT) Delta 3.1% 2.9% 2.5% 2.3% 2.3% 2.8% 2.3% 2.6% 2.9% 4.3%

 American 1.5% 2.2% 2.3% 2.3% 2.1% 2.2% 2.5% 2.4% 2.3% 1.8%

 Continental 1.4% 1.4% 1.1% 1.4% 1.2% 1.1% 1.2% 1.2% 1.5% 1.7%

 United 1.2% 1.0% 1.0% 1.8% 2.3% 2.0% 2.0% 1.8% 1.4% 1.3%

Chicago O'Hare United 47.8% 46.4% 48.1% 49.2% 47.8% 47.1% 47.8% 47.2% 46.1% 47.2%

(ORD) American 34.5% 35.5% 35.6% 34.9% 36.8% 37.3% 36.9% 36.5% 36.6% 35.3%

 Delta 2.9% 2.8% 2.5% 2.2% 1.9% 1.9% 1.9% 1.7% 2.1% 3.7%

 US Airways 1.8% 2.0% 1.9% 1.7% 1.6% 1.8% 2.6% 2.5% 2.6% 2.7%

 Continental 1.8% 1.8% 1.6% 1.6% 1.5% 1.5% 1.6% 1.7% 1.8% 1.9%

Chicago Midway Southwest 45.5% 47.1% 45.0% 43.6% 44.0% 65.0% 73.7% 77.9% 85.6% 83.6%

(MDW) Delta 1.6% 0.7% 1.8% 1.9% 2.1% 1.2% 1.4% 2.6% 3.6% 8.6%

AirTran 3.1% 4.6% 3.7% 2.5% 2.3% 3.5% 9.0% 7.5% 5.3% 5.0%

Frontier Airlines 1.1% 1.0% 1.0% 0.9% 1.2% 1.4% 1.8% 1.8% 2.1% 1.8%

Porter Airlines 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 1.1%

Cincinnati Delta 91.7% 91.7% 92.2% 92.9% 93.6% 93.7% 90.2% 89.3% 88.2% 87.8%

(CVG) American 1.1% 1.5% 1.4% 1.2% 1.3% 1.4% 2.2% 2.6% 3.0% 3.6%

 United 1.3% 1.3% 1.2% 1.1% 0.9% 1.0% 1.8% 2.6% 2.7% 3.1%

 US Airways 1.2% 1.3% 1.3% 1.1% 1.0% 0.9% 1.4% 1.7% 2.0% 2.7%

 Continental 0.9% 1.2% 1.1% 1.0% 0.9% 0.9% 1.6% 1.6% 1.8% 2.1%

Cleveland Continental 57.8% 58.8% 57.6% 58.6% 59.3% 58.4% 61.4% 63.7% 66.8% 64.5%

(CLE) Southwest 9.4% 10.6% 11.5% 11.8% 11.4% 12.2% 13.0% 12.4% 10.8% 11.5%

Delta 6.5% 5.9% 5.8% 5.7% 6.1% 5.3% 4.8% 4.5% 4.9% 7.5%

 United 5.0% 4.7% 5.3% 5.3% 5.4% 5.1% 5.1% 4.7% 4.3% 5.3%

 US Airways 0.5% 0.6% 1.3% 1.5% 1.8% 2.9% 4.4% 4.4% 4.5% 5.0%

Source: APGDat (Innovata – data the week of 10/24/09) and Nextgen estimates 
 Airlines Sector Review

Daniel McKenzie, CFA (312) 334-4416 dmckenzie@nextgenres.com 8

Exhibit 4 (continued): Seat Share Study – Hub Airports/Southwest Top Markets 

Based on departing seats for all non-stop destinations from hub cities, sorted by 2009E; includes regional partner flying 

Hub or Major Market Carrier 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009E

Dallas/Ft. Worth American 68.3% 68.3% 68.1% 70.1% 72.0% 83.3% 84.5% 84.9% 86.0% 86.5%

(DFW) Delta 18.5% 18.7% 19.6% 18.6% 16.7% 3.7% 2.5% 2.4% 2.5% 3.4%

 US Airways 1.2% 1.2% 1.3% 1.1% 1.1% 1.7% 2.6% 2.9% 2.6% 2.8%

 United 2.3% 2.4% 2.4% 2.0% 1.8% 2.0% 2.4% 2.1% 1.8% 1.8%

 Continental 2.0% 2.0% 1.7% 1.5% 1.4% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6%

Denver United 70.2% 66.7% 60.2% 57.5% 56.4% 54.7% 54.1% 51.5% 46.7% 44.4%

(DEN) Frontier Airlines 8.4% 10.3% 13.6% 16.6% 18.5% 21.0% 22.2% 23.3% 23.9% 22.2%

Southwest 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.0% 6.4% 12.5% 17.1%

 Delta 4.7% 4.7% 4.7% 4.3% 4.5% 3.8% 2.7% 2.8% 3.0% 4.7%

 American 4.2% 5.7% 5.7% 5.0% 4.3% 4.2% 4.1% 3.7% 3.4% 2.9%

Detroit (Wayne) Delta 3.1% 3.0% 2.7% 2.6% 3.0% 2.8% 2.3% 2.1% 14.5% 79.6%

(DTW) Northwest 77.7% 77.8% 77.1% 77.9% 79.3% 78.8% 76.2% 75.1% 63.9% 0.0%

Southwest 3.3% 3.4% 3.4% 3.2% 3.0% 3.0% 3.4% 4.4% 4.1% 3.9%

Spirit 2.1% 2.9% 4.3% 4.5% 4.2% 3.8% 4.9% 4.9% 4.1% 3.6%

US Airways 1.9% 2.0% 2.1% 1.7% 1.3% 1.9% 2.9% 2.9% 2.9% 3.2%

American 2.4% 3.6% 3.7% 3.5% 3.0% 2.9% 2.9% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0%

Ft. Lauderdale Spirit 4.1% 6.4% 7.6% 7.4% 8.4% 8.8% 10.4% 15.3% 19.5% 19.4%

(FLL) Southwest 13.5% 14.3% 15.7% 15.3% 14.1% 13.3% 14.9% 14.9% 16.0% 19.2%

jetBlue 1.5% 3.3% 5.9% 7.6% 8.6% 10.2% 10.7% 11.2% 12.4% 14.5%

Delta 23.8% 24.0% 22.6% 22.0% 19.8% 20.0% 16.5% 13.7% 11.9% 14.0%

US Airways 13.2% 12.9% 9.4% 9.1% 8.5% 12.0% 11.4% 9.3% 8.1% 7.9%

Houston (Bush Intl) Continental 79.7% 80.8% 81.5% 81.9% 82.3% 83.6% 86.0% 86.8% 86.5% 85.2%

(IAH) Delta 2.7% 2.4% 2.5% 2.5% 2.7% 2.2% 1.8% 1.7% 2.0% 3.4%

 American 3.6% 3.5% 3.5% 2.9% 3.0% 3.3% 2.8% 2.4% 2.4% 2.4%

 US Airways 2.2% 2.1% 1.9% 1.8% 1.6% 1.7% 2.0% 1.8% 1.9% 2.1%

United 2.8% 2.3% 2.1% 2.0% 2.0% 1.9% 1.6% 1.7% 1.7% 1.9%

Houston (Hobby) Southwest 83.2% 84.7% 86.6% 86.4% 86.5% 88.4% 89.1% 90.4% 91.3% 89.9%

(HOU) AirTran 2.8% 3.0% 2.8% 3.1% 3.1% 3.2% 3.2% 3.1% 2.9% 3.0%

Delta 4.2% 4.5% 5.7% 6.2% 6.3% 3.1% 2.7% 2.6% 2.8% 3.0%

 American 7.2% 7.3% 4.9% 4.2% 3.7% 4.7% 2.9% 1.7% 1.7% 2.8%

 jetBlue 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% 1.6% 1.4% 1.2%

Las Vegas Southwest 31.9% 35.4% 36.3% 37.8% 35.8% 35.6% 38.1% 39.3% 42.7% 43.8%

(LAS) US Airways 1.4% 1.5% 1.7% 2.7% 3.0% 5.9% 23.1% 20.5% 16.8% 12.8%

 Delta 8.0% 6.9% 6.6% 6.9% 6.5% 5.8% 5.0% 5.4% 5.4% 8.8%

 United 8.3% 7.3% 6.8% 7.4% 7.1% 7.1% 7.1% 6.3% 6.3% 6.7%

American 6.1% 5.8% 6.1% 6.1% 6.2% 5.3% 4.7% 4.4% 4.5% 4.9%

Los Angeles United 27.1% 24.0% 22.3% 21.5% 21.1% 19.7% 20.7% 19.1% 18.2% 17.8%

(LAX) American 14.3% 16.8% 16.5% 15.5% 15.8% 15.9% 15.9% 15.8% 15.4% 15.9%

 Southwest 11.7% 12.0% 13.9% 14.2% 13.8% 14.8% 14.6% 14.5% 15.4% 15.6%

 Delta 7.6% 7.9% 7.7% 7.7% 7.5% 7.4% 7.2% 9.2% 8.6% 10.5%

Alaska 4.2% 4.1% 4.7% 5.3% 5.3% 5.4% 5.9% 6.2% 6.1% 5.6%

Memphis Delta 8.9% 8.1% 6.9% 6.9% 7.6% 6.9% 5.9% 5.1% 17.6% 85.0%

(MEM) Northwest 78.9% 79.9% 80.4% 82.0% 79.8% 79.7% 79.6% 78.5% 66.6% 0.0%

 American 2.6% 3.3% 3.3% 3.1% 3.3% 4.1% 4.8% 5.0% 5.1% 4.7%

 US Airways 2.0% 2.2% 2.8% 1.5% 1.6% 2.1% 2.7% 2.8% 3.2% 3.4%

 AirTran 1.7% 1.7% 1.8% 2.1% 2.7% 2.5% 2.8% 3.3% 3.3% 2.7%

Continental 1.6% 2.0% 2.2% 1.9% 2.3% 1.9% 2.0% 2.0% 2.2% 2.1%

Source: APGDat (Innovata – data the week of 10/24/09) and Nextgen estimates 
 Airlines Sector Review

Daniel McKenzie, CFA (312) 334-4416 dmckenzie@nextgenres.com 9

Exhibit 4 (continued): Seat Share Study – Hub Airports/Southwest Top Markets 

Based on departing seats for all non-stop destinations from hub cities, sorted by 2009E; includes regional partner flying 

Hub or Major Market Carrier 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009E

Miami American 51.9% 52.9% 54.1% 56.8% 61.1% 65.6% 66.6% 67.7% 69.4% 69.1%

(MIA) Delta 5.1% 4.7% 4.2% 4.4% 4.2% 4.3% 4.3% 4.1% 4.0% 5.3%

 Continental 3.7% 3.5% 3.4% 3.3% 3.2% 3.3% 3.1% 3.1% 2.6% 2.4%

 US Airways 3.9% 4.1% 3.8% 3.2% 2.4% 2.4% 2.6% 2.5% 2.1% 2.3%

AVIANCA 0.8% 1.0% 1.2% 0.9% 1.3% 1.5% 1.6% 1.8% 1.8% 1.7%

Milwaukee Midwest Airlines 41.1% 43.8% 45.7% 41.8% 43.3% 47.3% 53.2% 56.1% 50.5% 37.2%

(MKE) AirTran 0.0% 0.0% 1.8% 5.5% 4.3% 3.5% 4.2% 6.3% 12.9% 23.0%

Delta 7.2% 7.0% 8.4% 8.2% 7.7% 7.0% 6.0% 5.9% 7.3% 19.2%

US Airways 5.9% 5.5% 6.6% 4.5% 2.8% 3.4% 4.4% 4.1% 3.9% 4.1%

Continental 3.1% 3.5% 3.6% 3.6% 3.5% 3.5% 4.1% 4.1% 4.0% 3.9%

Minneapolis/St. Paul Delta 2.7% 2.6% 2.8% 2.8% 2.9% 2.7% 2.3% 2.2% 14.9% 78.8%

(MSP) Northwest 78.0% 79.8% 81.7% 80.9% 80.4% 79.5% 78.5% 77.6% 66.2% 0.0%

American 2.5% 3.5% 3.7% 3.3% 2.9% 3.3% 3.6% 3.9% 4.2% 4.1%

 United 3.6% 3.4% 3.3% 3.3% 3.4% 3.0% 3.4% 3.4% 3.3% 3.7%

 Sun Country Airlines 4.3% 3.8% 1.1% 2.1% 2.8% 4.0% 4.5% 4.9% 4.0% 3.1%

US Airways 1.4% 1.4% 1.5% 1.4% 1.1% 1.0% 2.4% 2.6% 2.4% 2.7%

New York (JFK) jetBlue 2.3% 9.5% 14.9% 19.6% 20.8% 22.5% 26.0% 27.1% 25.2% 25.6%

(JFK) Delta 17.9% 16.2% 15.3% 15.5% 17.7% 19.7% 18.2% 20.9% 22.6% 25.0%

 American 21.3% 22.7% 26.1% 23.7% 22.9% 21.7% 19.4% 16.8% 16.0% 15.0%

British Airways 4.5% 4.5% 4.2% 4.4% 3.6% 3.4% 3.2% 3.2% 3.1% 2.7%

 United 7.1% 7.4% 6.9% 5.2% 4.8% 3.6% 3.0% 2.1% 2.2% 2.1%

New York (LaGuardia) Delta 22.4% 23.5% 25.2% 25.7% 24.7% 23.5% 23.3% 22.7% 23.8% 29.8%

(LGA) US Airways 29.3% 26.8% 25.1% 22.0% 22.0% 22.2% 21.6% 21.9% 22.4% 23.7%

American 16.5% 18.5% 19.8% 22.3% 22.1% 21.4% 22.0% 22.3% 22.1% 19.9%

United 8.1% 7.4% 6.5% 6.4% 6.1% 6.1% 6.8% 6.9% 6.6% 6.8%

AirTran 1.1% 1.8% 1.8% 2.8% 3.0% 3.2% 3.6% 3.5% 4.8% 4.4%

Newark Continental 56.3% 56.6% 58.3% 60.2% 62.2% 63.8% 67.1% 68.9% 69.4% 70.2%

(EWR) Delta 6.2% 6.4% 6.1% 6.0% 5.1% 4.5% 3.3% 3.2% 3.5% 5.7%

American 6.4% 7.9% 8.4% 7.3% 6.8% 6.7% 5.9% 5.2% 4.4% 3.9%

 United 7.6% 6.9% 6.7% 5.8% 5.0% 4.1% 3.7% 3.3% 3.1% 3.3%

 jetBlue 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% 3.0% 2.6% 2.6% 2.9%

Oakland Southwest 67.0% 65.4% 63.4% 60.7% 59.8% 62.4% 64.6% 66.1% 73.4% 78.1%

(OAK) jetBlue 0.2% 1.1% 4.7% 8.7% 9.0% 8.9% 8.8% 7.3% 7.0% 6.7%

Alaska 10.8% 9.3% 9.1% 8.6% 8.3% 8.2% 7.8% 7.6% 6.5% 5.5%

 US Airways 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% 3.6% 3.1% 2.7% 2.7%

 United 9.2% 8.5% 6.5% 7.5% 7.8% 5.8% 5.4% 4.3% 2.9% 1.4%

Orlando Southwest 10.8% 13.9% 16.8% 18.4% 17.5% 20.0% 21.6% 24.2% 25.5% 24.8%

(MCO) Delta 29.5% 27.0% 23.2% 23.5% 22.4% 21.2% 18.0% 15.0% 12.7% 15.0%

AirTran 3.2% 2.9% 4.5% 5.8% 5.9% 7.0% 8.7% 10.6% 11.5% 12.7%

jetBlue 0.4% 1.2% 2.0% 2.4% 3.6% 4.2% 5.9% 7.3% 9.0% 11.0%

American 7.3% 10.0% 11.9% 10.8% 10.6% 9.7% 9.9% 8.8% 8.4% 7.2%

Philadelphia US Airways 65.3% 68.5% 69.5% 69.0% 66.0% 64.9% 62.0% 61.8% 62.9% 64.6%

(PHL) Southwest 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.3% 9.6% 13.1% 14.1% 14.7% 14.3%

 Delta 6.7% 5.4% 5.4% 5.0% 5.1% 4.3% 3.4% 3.8% 4.7% 6.8%

 American 6.2% 6.6% 6.9% 6.7% 5.7% 4.7% 4.6% 4.4% 4.1% 4.0%

United 5.7% 5.1% 4.8% 5.2% 4.8% 3.9% 4.1% 4.0% 3.6% 3.6%

Source: APGDat (Innovata – data the week of 10/24/09) and Nextgen estimates 
 Airlines Sector Review

Daniel McKenzie, CFA (312) 334-4416 dmckenzie@nextgenres.com 10

Exhibit 4 (continued): Seat Share Study – Hub Airports/Southwest Top Markets 

Based on departing seats for all non-stop destinations from hub cities, sorted by 2009E; includes regional partner flying 

Hub or Major Market Carrier 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009E

Phoenix US Airways 44.9% 44.7% 45.4% 47.1% 46.2% 47.1% 45.4% 44.9% 44.7% 45.8%

(PHX) Southwest 29.3% 30.9% 32.0% 32.3% 32.6% 33.0% 34.2% 34.3% 34.9% 33.7%

 Delta 5.0% 4.7% 3.9% 3.0% 3.1% 2.8% 2.5% 3.1% 3.6% 5.6%

 United 5.6% 4.6% 4.0% 3.7% 4.1% 4.0% 4.3% 3.6% 3.2% 3.4%

American 3.6% 4.7% 4.2% 3.2% 3.2% 2.5% 2.9% 3.1% 3.1% 3.0%

Pittsburgh US Airways 86.2% 85.6% 86.8% 81.6% 77.6% 63.0% 54.8% 46.5% 34.0% 28.8%

(PIT) Southwest 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.3% 13.2% 16.0% 19.1% 19.7%

 Delta 3.2% 2.6% 3.2% 4.2% 4.9% 7.2% 6.8% 8.1% 11.1% 16.4%

 United 1.9% 1.7% 1.9% 2.5% 3.2% 5.2% 5.8% 6.4% 8.1% 9.8%

AirTran 0.0% 2.3% 1.5% 1.7% 2.1% 3.2% 3.1% 3.6% 5.6% 7.5%

Portland Alaska 36.0% 37.5% 37.8% 38.7% 38.7% 37.2% 36.2% 37.3% 36.8% 36.1%

(PDX) Southwest 13.6% 15.5% 17.6% 18.5% 18.3% 19.2% 19.9% 20.1% 21.3% 21.5%

 United 18.5% 18.6% 16.9% 16.1% 16.8% 14.7% 15.6% 14.2% 13.0% 13.3%

Delta 14.6% 10.3% 9.6% 7.8% 6.3% 7.0% 5.7% 6.3% 6.7% 11.4%

 US Airways1 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% 4.4% 4.4% 4.4% 3.8%

Salt Lake City Delta 74.2% 72.7% 72.6% 71.5% 70.4% 73.8% 71.0% 70.3% 67.1% 71.3%

(SLC) Southwest 12.4% 13.5% 13.9% 13.8% 14.5% 13.0% 15.0% 15.5% 17.9% 16.1%

 United 5.0% 5.0% 4.7% 4.3% 4.5% 3.8% 4.0% 3.6% 3.4% 3.4%

 American 2.1% 3.0% 2.7% 3.0% 2.8% 2.1% 2.5% 2.5% 2.6% 2.7%

Frontier Airlines 0.9% 1.1% 1.1% 1.6% 1.4% 1.3% 2.0% 1.9% 2.3% 2.1%

San Francisco United 49.5% 49.0% 49.1% 49.3% 49.2% 48.8% 49.7% 47.0% 42.6% 40.9%

(SFO) Southwest 2.4% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.6% 7.3% 9.0%

 American 8.6% 10.4% 10.6% 9.6% 9.6% 10.0% 10.1% 9.7% 8.7% 8.5%

 Delta 6.3% 6.4% 5.9% 6.0% 6.2% 6.4% 5.6% 5.5% 4.9% 7.6%

 Virgin America 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.2% 5.1% 6.4%

San Jose (CA) Southwest 33.8% 32.6% 39.0% 41.7% 43.2% 46.6% 47.1% 49.4% 52.6% 56.5%

(SJC) American 31.2% 33.8% 28.6% 23.3% 22.7% 17.5% 16.1% 14.1% 12.4% 11.2%

 Alaska 9.6% 8.7% 9.3% 9.5% 9.4% 8.6% 8.5% 8.4% 8.0% 7.9%

 US Airways 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 5.9% 5.9% 5.5% 5.2%

 United 10.5% 10.0% 8.2% 8.2% 8.4% 8.2% 8.2% 8.0% 6.7% 5.1%

Seattle/Tacoma Alaska 43.9% 43.4% 45.1% 48.0% 49.0% 49.2% 49.7% 49.9% 49.7% 50.2%

(SEA) Delta 6.0% 5.9% 6.3% 5.7% 5.4% 5.9% 5.2% 5.9% 6.1% 10.9%

Southwest 8.5% 8.9% 9.8% 10.0% 9.0% 9.8% 9.9% 10.1% 11.0% 9.8%

 United 15.5% 14.8% 12.9% 11.3% 11.1% 10.1% 9.9% 8.9% 7.6% 7.6%

 American 5.6% 6.3% 5.5% 5.1% 4.8% 4.9% 5.2% 4.6% 4.0% 3.9%

St. Louis Southwest 15.0% 15.8% 17.0% 19.0% 28.1% 28.6% 30.5% 31.8% 34.8% 37.7%

(STL) American 1.9% 56.2% 69.0% 63.9% 46.5% 47.3% 47.0% 43.7% 40.0% 34.7%

 Delta 2.1% 1.8% 2.1% 2.6% 5.6% 5.4% 4.4% 4.5% 5.2% 9.8%

 US Airways 1.6% 1.8% 2.0% 1.4% 2.6% 3.0% 4.1% 4.2% 4.2% 4.5%

 United 1.4% 1.6% 2.0% 2.6% 4.9% 4.2% 4.3% 4.1% 4.0% 4.4%

Washington (Dulles) United 56.5% 59.9% 57.3% 58.8% 53.2% 49.3% 63.9% 62.0% 61.8% 64.0%

(IAD) jetBlue 0.0% 0.1% 2.1% 3.4% 3.3% 3.1% 5.6% 6.3% 6.2% 5.5%

 Delta 6.4% 7.1% 8.8% 7.5% 5.7% 4.4% 4.3% 4.1% 4.4% 5.2%

American 4.3% 6.1% 7.3% 6.6% 4.5% 4.2% 4.9% 4.2% 3.9% 3.8%

Southwest 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 3.6% 3.4% 3.4%

Washington (Reagan) US Airways 39.9% 38.0% 38.1% 38.2% 39.6% 42.5% 43.8% 43.8% 43.4% 42.3%

(DCA) Delta 19.3% 20.2% 19.4% 20.0% 17.6% 15.4% 15.0% 14.6% 16.1% 21.5%

 American 11.8% 13.7% 14.1% 15.1% 13.7% 13.3% 13.8% 13.8% 14.3% 15.5%

 United 6.1% 5.2% 5.8% 5.2% 5.1% 4.9% 5.2% 5.2% 5.3% 5.6%

 Continental 6.7% 6.3% 5.9% 5.6% 5.3% 4.9% 5.2% 5.2% 5.1% 4.9%

1Prior to Oct 2005, Las Vegas percentages reflect America West’s market share; Source: APGDat (Innovata – data the week of 10/24/09) and 

Nextgen estimates 
 Airlines Sector Review

Daniel McKenzie, CFA (312) 334-4416 dmckenzie@nextgenres.com 11

Transatlantic Market Share 

Following the EU/US Open Skies agreement effective March 30th, 2008, competition on the transatlantic is 

evolving. Excluding alliance relationships, Delta jumps to the top of our market share table given its merger with 

Northwest. Including alliances, SkyTeam is the alliance leader in market share with 32.4%, followed by Star at 

25.4% and oneworld (22.5%). 

The top five American airports for transatlantic travel remain unchanged: New York (JFK), Newark, Chicago 

(O’Hare), Washington (Dulles), and Atlanta. While the top 5 European airports include London (Heathrow), 

Frankfurt, Paris (Charles De Gaulle), Amsterdam, and Rome (Da Vinci). 

Given that the European Commission is reviewing antitrust immunity for the three major alliances, we looked at 

market share by alliance at each of the top 5 cities. We found oneWorld has 59% of the market share at London 

Heathrow, which compares to Star having 78.9% of the market share at Frankfurt, and SkyTeam having 88.6% of 

the market share at Amsterdam; 75.4% of the market share at Paris; and 69.2% of the market share at Rome. 

Consequently, alliance dominance at major hub European cities is uneven, with the major differences among the 

various airports being gate availability and airport desirability. 

Exhibit 5: Seat Share Study – Airline Transatlantic Market Share by Year, flights to or from US

Based on departing seats for all non-stop destinations by airport, sorted by 2009E 

Rank Carrier 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009E

1 Delta Air Lines 9.1% 9.0% 10.0% 8.7% 9.2% 9.3% 10.4% 10.4% 11.4% 15.5%

2 British Airways 13.8% 13.4% 13.3% 14.0% 13.2% 13.0% 12.4% 11.8% 11.7% 12.0%

3 Air France/KLM 5.7% 6.0% 6.1% 6.3% 8.1% 9.1% 9.1% 9.0% 8.9% 9.1%

4 Lufthansa 7.1% 7.7% 8.1% 8.8% 9.0% 8.4% 8.5% 8.8% 8.5% 9.0%

5 American Airlines 8.4% 8.5% 9.0% 9.0% 9.5% 9.6% 9.3% 8.6% 8.3% 8.8%

6 Continental Airlines 6.1% 5.3% 5.7% 5.8% 6.3% 7.2% 7.7% 8.3% 8.4% 8.3%

7 United Airlines 8.2% 8.9% 9.0% 7.9% 7.8% 7.8% 7.4% 7.2% 7.3% 7.6%

8 Virgin Atlantic Airways 6.3% 6.2% 6.3% 6.4% 6.3% 6.3% 6.4% 6.5% 6.2% 6.2%

9 US Airways 2.9% 3.8% 3.8% 4.1% 3.9% 3.6% 3.7% 4.0% 4.1% 4.7%

10 Aer Lingus 2.2% 2.4% 2.0% 2.4% 2.3% 2.1% 2.1% 2.3% 2.6% 2.4%

Top 10 Carriers 69.9% 71.1% 73.5% 73.5% 75.8% 76.5% 77.0% 76.8% 77.4% 83.6%

Source: APGDat (Innovata – data the week of 10/24/09) and Nextgen estimates 

Exhibit 6: American City Transatlantic Market Share by Year 

Based on departing seats for all non-stop destinations by airport, sorted by 2009E 

Rank City 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009E

1 New York-JFK, NY, US 22.1% 21.0% 19.8% 19.8% 19.9% 20.4% 20.9% 20.9% 20.4% 20.2%

2 Newark, NJ, US 11.4% 10.3% 10.2% 10.4% 10.3% 11.1% 11.6% 12.4% 12.3% 12.0%

3 Chicago-O'Hare, IL, US 10.7% 11.1% 10.7% 11.0% 11.3% 10.9% 11.0% 10.8% 10.3% 9.7%

4 Washington-Dulles, VA, US 7.0% 7.2% 8.2% 7.4% 7.6% 7.5% 7.3% 7.3% 7.2% 7.4%

5 Atlanta, GA, US 5.7% 5.6% 6.6% 6.2% 6.2% 6.2% 6.8% 6.6% 6.3% 6.3%

6 Los Angeles, CA, US 6.5% 6.3% 5.6% 6.0% 5.9% 6.2% 6.2% 5.9% 6.1% 5.4%

7 Boston, MA, US 5.3% 5.5% 5.6% 5.1% 5.1% 5.2% 5.1% 4.8% 4.7% 5.1%

8 Philadelphia, PA, US 3.1% 3.7% 4.0% 4.6% 4.4% 4.4% 4.4% 4.5% 4.5% 5.0%

9 Miami, FL, US 5.2% 5.2% 5.5% 5.7% 5.4% 4.7% 4.3% 3.9% 4.1% 4.6%

10 San Francisco, CA, US 4.4% 4.9% 4.5% 4.5% 4.4% 4.3% 4.0% 4.2% 4.3% 4.4%

Top 10 Cities 81.5% 80.8% 80.8% 80.7% 80.6% 80.9% 81.4% 81.3% 80.0% 80.2%

Source: APGDat (Innovata – data the week of 10/24/09) and Nextgen estimates 
 Airlines Sector Review

Daniel McKenzie, CFA (312) 334-4416 dmckenzie@nextgenres.com 12

Exhibit 7: European City Transatlantic Market Share by Year

Based on departing seats for all non-stop destinations by airport, sorted by 2009E 

Rank City 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009E

1 London-Heathrow, EN, GB 23.8% 24.4% 26.3% 28.1% 27.4% 26.6% 25.6% 24.2% 26.9% 28.2%

2 Frankfurt, DE 12.2% 12.3% 13.4% 13.8% 13.8% 13.4% 13.4% 13.1% 12.4% 13.1%

3 Paris-De Gaulle, FR 12.7% 13.1% 13.2% 13.1% 12.9% 12.8% 12.4% 11.7% 11.6% 11.8%

4 Amsterdam, NL 9.2% 9.2% 10.0% 9.7% 9.3% 9.4% 9.0% 9.0% 9.5% 9.2%

5 Rome-Da Vinci, IT 2.9% 2.5% 2.3% 2.2% 2.7% 2.8% 2.5% 2.8% 3.5% 3.8%

6 Madrid, ES 3.4% 3.5% 3.5% 3.6% 3.6% 3.1% 3.0% 3.1% 3.0% 3.7%

7 Munich, DE 2.2% 2.2% 1.9% 2.3% 2.8% 3.0% 3.0% 3.4% 3.4% 3.5%

8 London-Gatwick, EN, GB 11.9% 11.7% 10.7% 9.0% 8.2% 8.1% 7.8% 7.7% 5.2% 3.4%

9 Dublin, IE 1.5% 1.6% 1.5% 1.7% 1.7% 1.9% 2.1% 2.5% 3.4% 3.3%

10 Manchester, EN, GB 2.0% 2.4% 2.9% 2.8% 3.2% 3.4% 3.4% 3.1% 2.9% 2.6%

Top 10 Cities 81.7% 83.1% 85.6% 86.3% 85.7% 84.4% 82.1% 80.7% 81.6% 82.6%

Source: APGDat (Innovata – data the week of 10/24/09) and Nextgen estimates 

Exhibit 8: Alliance Transatlantic Market Share by Year 

Based on departing seats for all non-stop destinations by airport, sorted by 2009E 

Rank Alliance 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009E

1 SkyTeam 13.9% 15.4% 17.7% 16.7% 20.7% 31.7% 32.5% 33.0% 33.8% 32.4%

2 Star 18.4% 20.3% 21.5% 21.3% 24.6% 24.6% 24.1% 24.2% 23.9% 25.4%

3 oneworld 25.5% 26.1% 26.2% 27.3% 26.8% 26.1% 25.1% 22.3% 21.6% 22.5%

Source: APGDat (Innovata – data the week of 10/24/09) and Nextgen estimates 

Exhibit 9: Alliance Transatlantic Market Share for Major Cities by Year, flights to or from US 

Based on departing seats for all non-stop destinations by airport, sorted by 2009E 

City or Metropolitan Area Alliance 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009E

London Metro, EN, GB oneworld 53.7% 52.1% 52.6% 55.0% 54.8% 55.2% 54.6% 53.9% 52.5% 55.4%

Star 13.3% 13.9% 14.0% 13.3% 14.7% 14.7% 13.9% 12.3% 12.7% 13.7%

SkyTeam 3.0% 3.7% 4.2% 3.1% 4.7% 9.3% 9.3% 9.6% 12.4% 10.4%

London-Heathrow, EN, GB oneworld 60.2% 59.7% 60.4% 62.4% 61.5% 62.0% 62.0% 62.3% 58.4% 59.0%

Star 19.9% 20.6% 19.7% 17.5% 16.9% 16.6% 15.7% 13.9% 13.3% 13.6%

SkyTeam 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 7.9% 9.9%

Frankfurt, DE Star 69.4% 73.4% 73.9% 73.6% 75.9% 74.8% 75.7% 78.7% 80.8% 78.9%

SkyTeam 9.5% 8.8% 8.8% 8.1% 9.5% 13.5% 12.7% 12.1% 10.5% 9.9%

oneworld 6.2% 4.0% 4.4% 4.5% 4.3% 4.3% 4.2% 4.0% 4.2% 4.4%

Paris-De Gaulle, FR SkyTeam 55.5% 57.7% 62.8% 63.3% 63.7% 73.3% 75.0% 75.8% 76.2% 75.4%

oneworld 12.5% 13.3% 12.6% 12.2% 12.1% 11.4% 11.3% 11.3% 11.6% 12.3%

Star 12.2% 11.2% 10.0% 7.4% 9.9% 9.2% 7.5% 7.6% 7.5% 10.5%

Amsterdam, NL SkyTeam 5.9% 6.0% 6.3% 6.2% 26.9% 86.6% 86.2% 87.0% 89.4% 88.6%

Star 5.5% 9.2% 9.4% 9.9% 10.1% 8.5% 8.6% 8.4% 7.3% 9.2%

oneworld 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Rome-Da Vinci, IT SkyTeam 22.7% 33.1% 57.1% 57.7% 60.6% 73.6% 72.4% 65.0% 67.6% 69.2%

Star 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 8.6% 12.2% 12.9% 19.0% 16.6% 17.3%

oneworld 4.9% 8.0% 5.9% 14.2% 12.4% 11.8% 12.2% 11.5% 11.0% 10.1%

Source: APGDat (Innovata – data the week of 10/24/09) and Nextgen estimates 
 Airlines Sector Review

Daniel McKenzie, CFA (312) 334-4416 dmckenzie@nextgenres.com 13

European Market Share 

In our study of 24 European airports, we found the same trends impacting the United States also impacting Europe. 

Legacy airlines were able to maintain market share in core hubs where dominance has been achieved. Where 

legacy carriers lacked dominance, low cost carriers continue to take significant market share, almost without 

exception. 

Exhibit 10: Percentage of Scheduled Seats by Airport, Europe 

Based on departing seats for all non-stop destinations by airport,includes regional partner flying if applicable 

Carrier Airport 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009E

Air France/KLM Paris-De Gaulle 55.7% 56.2% 57.8% 57.6% 39.3% 60.0% 58.4% 58.1% 57.5% 58.7%

Paris-Orly 52.0% 56.6% 58.8% 63.5% 59.1% 59.5% 56.9% 53.2% 50.6% 50.0%

Amsterdam 45.7% 43.6% 44.9% 49.3% 52.4% 54.0% 52.8% 53.7% 54.8% 56.2%

System 51.4% 50.9% 52.3% 54.1% 44.8% 57.4% 56.0% 56.2% 56.4% 57.7%

-0.5% 1.4% 1.8% -9.3% 12.6% -1.5% 0.2% 0.1% 1.3%

Alitalia Rome-Da Vinci 52.5% 52.7% 51.8% 50.3% 49.0% 48.9% 45.2% 42.8% 43.3% 40.0%

System 52.5% 52.7% 51.8% 50.3% 49.0% 48.9% 45.2% 42.8% 43.3% 40.0%

British Airways London-Heathrow 41.4% 40.3% 39.0% 40.7% 40.0% 41.6% 41.4% 41.7% 40.0% 40.2%

London-Gatwick 58.7% 56.8% 49.0% 46.6% 43.1% 36.7% 34.4% 31.5% 23.9% 20.3%

System 45.5% 44.2% 41.2% 42.0% 40.7% 40.4% 39.5% 38.9% 35.2% 34.3%

-1.3% -3.0% 0.7% -1.3% -0.4% -0.8% -0.7% -3.7% -0.9%

easyJet London-Gatwick 0.4% 1.2% 8.8% 13.3% 14.8% 17.6% 19.3% 20.1% 25.1% 30.1%

(Top 5 Cities) London-Luton 81.2% 81.4% 82.6% 75.6% 70.6% 62.7% 60.6% 59.0% 53.5% 49.4%

Milan-Malpensa 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 4.7% 8.9% 16.7% 24.7%

London-Stansted 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 18.6% 24.0% 22.5% 20.2% 19.6% 19.3% 18.6%

Paris-De Gaulle 0.0% 0.0% 1.1% 1.9% 1.9% 1.6% 1.9% 2.3% 3.7% 4.9%

System 6.3% 7.1% 10.6% 16.9% 18.9% 19.3% 20.1% 21.1% 24.9% 28.1%

0.7% 3.6% 6.3% 1.9% 0.4% 0.8% 1.0% 3.8% 3.2%

Iberia Madrid 55.6% 55.3% 55.8% 55.7% 54.8% 50.8% 49.9% 46.5% 47.4% 47.8%

System 55.6% 55.3% 55.8% 55.7% 54.8% 50.8% 49.9% 46.5% 47.4% 47.8%

-0.4% 0.6% -0.2% -0.9% -3.9% -1.0% -3.3% 0.8% 0.4%

Lufthansa Frankfurt 61.0% 61.7% 61.0% 59.4% 59.3% 59.7% 59.5% 60.6% 61.3% 61.1%

Munich 51.8% 53.4% 54.4% 53.2% 54.6% 57.5% 56.5% 56.4% 58.4% 59.2%

Berlin-Tegel 49.6% 49.0% 42.8% 36.9% 39.0% 35.9% 33.4% 29.9% 29.3% 27.4%

System 51.1% 52.1% 51.0% 48.2% 50.3% 51.4% 50.3% 48.9% 49.9% 49.7%

Olympic Air Athens 9.5% 12.5% 15.6% 16.8% 20.9% 23.1% 22.3% 24.5% 26.9% 30.8%

System 9.5% 12.5% 15.6% 16.8% 20.9% 23.1% 22.3% 24.5% 26.9% 30.8%

Ryanair London-Stansted 40.6% 48.0% 57.6% 65.0% 65.0% 63.9% 64.0% 65.0% 67.3% 69.5%

(Top 5 Cities) Dublin 27.1% 26.0% 29.5% 31.3% 32.2% 29.7% 38.5% 43.5% 44.4% 44.5%

Milan-Orio Serio 0.0% 0.0% 37.9% 54.8% 60.4% 55.7% 58.9% 57.7% 67.1% 81.4%

Girona, Spain 0.0% 0.0% 29.4% 93.6% 94.9% 95.8% 96.5% 92.0% 93.4% 97.8%

Hahn, Germany 98.9% 98.5% 98.9% 100.0% 97.9% 94.6% 94.7% 96.8% 97.7% 98.3%

System 24.5% 24.3% 30.1% 38.3% 43.5% 42.5% 48.4% 52.8% 55.9% 60.9%

SWISS Zurich 5.4% 7.8% 58.4% 58.9% 52.0% 52.0% 54.0% 56.1% 56.5% 59.4%

System 5.4% 7.8% 58.4% 58.9% 52.0% 52.0% 54.0% 56.1% 56.5% 59.4%

3.0% 3.1% 1.3% 4.1% 2.1% -0.7% 2.2% 2.4% 3.8%

Industry Weighted Avg (Excl LCA's) 44.8% 45.0% 48.5% 48.6% 45.3% 48.5% 47.5% 46.7% 46.2% 46.3%

Source: APGDat (Innovata – data the week of 10/24/09) and Nextgen estimates 
 Airlines Sector Review

Daniel McKenzie, CFA (312) 334-4416 dmckenzie@nextgenres.com 14

Exhibit 11: Seat Share Study by Metropolitan Area, Europe 

Based on departing seats for all non-stop destinations from hub cities, sorted by 2009E; includes regional partner flying if applicable 

Market Carrier 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009E

Berlin Air Berlin 3.0% 3.8% 4.5% 7.7% 7.9% 10.4% 11.2% 21.2% 25.9% 29.6%

(SXF, TXL) Lufthansa 40.5% 42.0% 37.5% 32.1% 29.5% 25.0% 22.1% 20.6% 20.3% 19.8%

 easyJet 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 6.9% 13.2% 14.5% 13.3% 13.6% 11.7%

 Ryanair 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.4% 1.6% 1.2% 1.8% 2.1% 3.1% 6.2%

 Germanwings 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 1.9% 2.2% 4.8% 6.4% 6.8% 6.0% 5.9%

Frankfurt Lufthansa 61.0% 61.7% 61.0% 59.4% 59.3% 59.7% 59.5% 60.6% 61.3% 61.1%

(FRA, HHN) Condor 2.7% 2.5% 2.4% 2.8% 3.0% 3.3% 3.5% 3.4% 3.7% 3.4%

 United Airlines 1.4% 1.6% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.7% 2.0% 2.2% 1.8%

 Scandinavian Airlines 1.4% 1.5% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6% 1.5% 1.4% 1.6% 1.7% 1.6%

 Air Berlin 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 1.1% 1.5% 1.3% 1.4% 1.5%

London British Airways 37.9% 35.8% 32.8% 32.8% 31.6% 30.9% 29.4% 28.8% 26.9% 26.5%

(LCY, LGW, LHR, easyJet 3.5% 3.9% 5.6% 9.1% 10.2% 10.9% 11.3% 11.4% 12.2% 13.0%

LTN, STN) Ryanair 4.8% 6.5% 8.2% 10.9% 11.1% 11.7% 12.8% 13.0% 12.4% 12.6%

Virgin Atlantic 3.6% 3.9% 3.8% 3.7% 3.4% 3.4% 3.7% 3.9% 3.9% 3.7%

bmi 6.4% 6.0% 6.0% 5.7% 5.5% 5.1% 4.5% 3.8% 4.0% 3.6%

Milan Alitalia 53.2% 52.3% 50.3% 47.5% 47.3% 48.0% 44.2% 40.4% 25.3% 17.1%

(LIN, BGY, MXP) Ryanair 0.0% 0.0% 1.3% 4.9% 5.8% 6.7% 7.8% 8.3% 11.8% 15.9%

 easyJet 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.8% 0.7% 3.3% 5.7% 9.5% 13.0%

 Lufthansa 4.2% 4.4% 4.4% 3.4% 3.3% 3.3% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 8.1%

 Air One 3.9% 4.6% 6.8% 6.5% 6.3% 5.8% 5.8% 5.8% 8.5% 6.8%

Paris Air France/KLM 54.2% 56.1% 57.7% 58.6% 57.3% 58.2% 56.4% 54.8% 53.5% 53.9%

(ORY, CDG, BVA, XCR) easyJet 0.0% 0.0% 1.1% 2.1% 2.7% 2.9% 3.0% 3.2% 4.2% 5.2%

Ryanair 0.5% 0.5% 0.6% 1.1% 1.5% 1.7% 1.8% 2.1% 2.5% 2.7%

Lufthansa 3.1% 2.8% 2.3% 2.1% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.2%

Aigle Azur 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 0.5% 1.0% 1.1% 1.2% 1.2%

Rome Alitalia 52.1% 52.3% 50.9% 47.9% 45.3% 43.2% 39.3% 37.2% 38.7% 35.6%

(FCO, CIA) Air One 4.4% 4.7% 7.8% 8.0% 7.7% 7.3% 9.3% 10.6% 11.3% 8.7%

Ryanair 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.9% 5.3% 8.2% 8.4% 8.4% 7.8% 8.4%

 easyJet 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.8% 1.6% 2.1% 2.2% 2.0% 4.3%

Meridiana 2.4% 2.3% 2.1% 3.7% 3.5% 2.8% 2.2% 2.1% 2.5% 3.2%

Source: APGDat (Innovata – data the week of 10/24/09) and Nextgen estimates 

Exhibit 12: Seat Share Study by Airport, Europe 

Based on departing seats for all non-stop destinations from hub airports, sorted by 2009E; includes regional partner flying 

Market Carrier 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009E

Amsterdam Air France/KLM 45.7% 43.6% 44.9% 49.3% 52.4% 54.0% 52.8% 53.7% 54.8% 56.2%

(AMS) Transavia Airlines 2.1% 3.6% 4.5% 5.6% 5.1% 4.8% 5.0% 4.6% 4.5% 4.4%

 easyJet 1.9% 3.3% 5.2% 4.9% 4.8% 3.9% 3.5% 3.9% 3.3% 3.5%

 Delta / Northwest 4.4% 5.1% 5.1% 4.5% 3.9% 4.3% 3.8% 4.2% 4.8% 5.1%

 British Airways 3.6% 3.8% 3.1% 2.8% 2.6% 2.3% 2.1% 2.2% 2.3% 2.3%

Athens Olympic Air 47.3% 47.0% 48.7% 45.1% 40.9% 39.4% 38.6% 36.9% 35.2% 30.9%

(ATH) Aegean Airlines 9.5% 12.5% 15.6% 16.8% 20.9% 23.1% 22.3% 24.5% 26.9% 30.8%

 SWISS 2.9% 3.5% 4.4% 3.9% 3.9% 4.7% 4.5% 4.0% 3.8% 3.6%

 Air France/KLM 1.8% 1.8% 2.4% 2.6% 3.4% 3.6% 4.0% 3.7% 3.5% 3.2%

 easyJet 1.1% 1.1% 1.7% 1.8% 1.9% 1.8% 2.2% 2.4% 2.7% 3.0%

Barcelona Vueling Airlines 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% 5.3% 8.3% 9.4% 10.4% 19.1%

(BCN) Spanair 9.2% 10.1% 12.0% 12.5% 12.3% 13.1% 14.5% 14.6% 14.8% 14.4%

 Iberia 52.2% 52.3% 50.3% 47.8% 45.8% 40.6% 36.6% 25.5% 14.1% 12.0%

 ClickAir S.A. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% 11.0% 17.1% 7.6%

Air Europa 5.2% 6.2% 5.0% 5.6% 7.9% 11.0% 7.6% 7.0% 7.6% 7.0%

Berlin-Schoenefeld easyJet 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 33.5% 50.5% 48.7% 46.5% 49.1% 39.5%

(SXF) Ryanair 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 15.0% 7.8% 4.4% 6.0% 7.3% 11.0% 20.8%

Germanwings 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.4% 10.8% 18.4% 21.4% 23.6% 21.5% 20.1%

 Aeroflot 9.8% 11.7% 19.1% 19.3% 6.5% 4.2% 3.4% 3.4% 3.2% 3.5%

 Norwegian Air 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.7% 1.4% 1.9% 2.9% 3.2% 3.3%

Source: APGDat (Innovata – data the week of 10/24/09) and Nextgen estimates 
 Airlines Sector Review

Daniel McKenzie, CFA (312) 334-4416 dmckenzie@nextgenres.com 15

Exhibit 12: Seat Share Study by Airport, Europe 

Based on departing seats for all non-stop destinations from hub airports, sorted by 2009E; includes regional partner flying 

Market Carrier 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009E

Berlin-Tegel Air Berlin 2.7% 3.3% 3.4% 7.3% 9.4% 14.1% 16.3% 29.9% 36.2% 41.0%

(TXL) Lufthansa 49.6% 49.0% 42.8% 36.9% 39.0% 35.9% 33.4% 29.9% 29.3% 27.4%

Air France/KLM 3.2% 4.2% 4.4% 3.8% 6.2% 5.8% 4.9% 4.9% 4.9% 5.4%

TUIfly 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.2% 4.6% 7.5% 7.0% 7.7% 7.2% 3.9%

SWISS 0.0% 0.4% 2.5% 1.7% 1.8% 2.1% 1.7% 1.7% 2.0% 2.6%

Dublin Ryanair 27.1% 26.0% 29.5% 31.3% 32.2% 29.7% 38.5% 43.5% 44.4% 44.5%

(DUB) Aer Lingus 48.0% 45.9% 43.0% 40.9% 37.9% 41.7% 37.9% 35.9% 36.4% 37.8%

Aer Arann 0.7% 2.6% 3.5% 4.0% 4.0% 3.8% 3.2% 2.9% 2.5% 2.7%

Air France/KLM 1.2% 1.3% 1.7% 2.4% 3.5% 3.5% 2.9% 2.8% 2.3% 2.3%

bmi 7.4% 6.5% 6.2% 5.3% 4.4% 3.8% 3.3% 2.7% 2.5% 2.2%

Frankfurt Lufthansa 61.0% 61.7% 61.0% 59.4% 59.3% 59.7% 59.5% 60.6% 61.3% 61.1%

(FRA) Condor 2.7% 2.5% 2.4% 2.8% 3.0% 3.3% 3.5% 3.4% 3.7% 3.4%

 United Airlines 1.4% 1.6% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.7% 2.0% 2.2% 1.8%

Scandinavian Airlines 1.4% 1.5% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6% 1.5% 1.5% 1.6% 1.7% 1.6%

 Air Berlin 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 1.1% 1.5% 1.3% 1.4% 1.5%

Girona, Spain Ryanair 0.0% 0.0% 29.4% 93.6% 94.9% 95.8% 96.5% 92.0% 93.4% 97.8%

(GRO) Transavia Airlines 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.3% 2.2% 2.1% 1.5% 1.1% 0.9%

 Thomsonfly 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6%

Jetairfly 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.3%

 Thomas Cook 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.2%

Hahn, Germany Ryanair 98.9% 98.5% 98.9% 100.0% 97.9% 94.6% 94.7% 96.8% 97.7% 98.3%

(HHN) Wizz Air 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.5% 4.2% 2.8% 1.4% 1.4%

 Astraeus Ltd. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%

Vladivostok Air 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 0.1%

 HI Hamburg Internatio 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%

London-City British Airways 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 14.5% 16.7% 16.0% 14.6% 18.2% 26.1% 30.0%

(LCY) Air France/KLM 7.9% 9.3% 9.6% 8.3% 17.7% 19.7% 18.2% 23.8% 24.1% 18.4%

VLM Airlines 17.1% 14.8% 19.2% 25.7% 28.2% 27.8% 28.0% 21.9% 16.5% 17.4%

 SWISS 19.9% 16.1% 16.9% 12.0% 9.0% 16.1% 17.9% 16.0% 15.0% 15.7%

 Lufthansa 5.0% 8.2% 8.9% 5.6% 3.8% 4.1% 5.7% 7.3% 9.9% 9.1%

London-Gatwick easyJet 0.4% 1.2% 8.8% 13.3% 14.8% 17.6% 19.3% 20.1% 25.1% 30.1%

(LGW) British Airways 58.7% 56.8% 49.0% 46.6% 43.1% 36.7% 34.4% 31.5% 23.9% 20.3%

 FlyBE 0.0% 0.5% 4.0% 3.4% 3.2% 2.8% 2.6% 3.4% 4.3% 5.4%

 Thomsonfly 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 1.3% 1.6% 5.2%

 Thomas Cook 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.4% 4.8%

London-Heathrow British Airways 41.4% 40.3% 39.0% 40.7% 40.0% 41.6% 41.4% 41.7% 40.0% 40.2%

(LHR) bmi 10.0% 9.7% 9.7% 9.4% 9.3% 9.0% 8.2% 7.2% 7.9% 6.8%

Virgin Atlantic 3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 4.4% 4.2% 4.4% 4.9% 5.6% 5.7% 5.2%

 Lufthansa 2.8% 3.3% 3.4% 3.2% 3.0% 3.3% 3.5% 3.5% 3.3% 3.9%

 Aer Lingus 2.9% 3.1% 3.2% 3.0% 2.9% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.1%

London-Luton easyJet 81.2% 81.4% 82.6% 75.6% 70.6% 62.7% 60.6% 59.0% 53.5% 49.4%

(LTN) Wizz Air 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.7% 7.3% 9.9% 10.9% 12.7% 16.5%

 Ryanair 5.4% 7.4% 6.6% 9.3% 8.8% 18.7% 16.8% 15.6% 15.9% 16.4%

 Monarch Airlines 8.3% 7.8% 8.1% 7.8% 7.3% 7.1% 7.9% 8.0% 7.7% 7.9%

Aer Arann 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.7% 1.3% 1.6% 2.3% 1.5% 1.6% 1.7%

London-Stansted Ryanair 40.6% 48.0% 57.6% 65.0% 65.0% 63.9% 64.0% 65.0% 67.3% 69.5%

(STN) easyJet 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 18.6% 24.0% 22.5% 20.2% 19.6% 19.3% 18.6%

Air Berlin 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% 4.4% 2.9% 3.9% 6.4% 6.1% 4.4% 3.0%

Germanwings 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 1.1% 0.9% 1.5% 1.5% 1.4% 1.6% 1.8%

Kibris Turk Hava Yolla 0.6% 0.7% 0.8% 1.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.6% 0.6% 1.0%

Source: APGDat (Innovata – data the week of 10/24/09) and Nextgen estimates 
 Airlines Sector Review

Daniel McKenzie, CFA (312) 334-4416 dmckenzie@nextgenres.com 16

Exhibit 12: Seat Share Study by Airport, Europe 

Based on departing seats for all non-stop destinations from hub airports, sorted by 2009E; includes regional partner flying 

Market Carrier 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009E

Madrid Iberia 55.6% 55.3% 55.8% 55.7% 54.8% 50.8% 49.9% 46.5% 47.4% 47.8%

(MAD) Spanair 13.9% 14.9% 14.6% 13.8% 13.5% 14.2% 14.8% 14.3% 11.8% 9.2%

 Air Europa 6.9% 8.4% 7.4% 7.8% 9.4% 12.5% 8.2% 8.8% 9.1% 8.3%

 Ryanair 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 2.2% 3.4% 7.2%

 easyJet 0.7% 0.6% 0.7% 0.8% 0.9% 1.4% 1.7% 3.4% 4.5% 4.6%

Manchester Thomas Cook 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 8.7% 10.9%

(MAN) FlyBE 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% 0.8% 2.4% 8.2% 8.8% 9.7%

Monarch Airlines 0.7% 1.4% 2.5% 5.0% 5.8% 6.7% 7.3% 6.8% 7.1% 8.6%

 Thomsonfly 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 3.5% 4.1% 8.4%

British Airways 38.0% 35.5% 34.4% 33.8% 28.5% 23.2% 19.7% 11.0% 6.8% 6.1%

Milan-Linate Alitalia 53.6% 43.5% 40.9% 39.7% 39.8% 41.5% 39.0% 37.2% 43.4% 44.0%

(LIN) Air One 16.7% 14.9% 19.5% 18.2% 18.9% 19.7% 21.9% 22.1% 22.7% 16.1%

Meridiana 3.9% 6.0% 7.0% 8.3% 8.5% 11.2% 9.1% 8.9% 9.8% 10.3%

CAI SECOND 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% 7.1% 1.3% 6.6%

Eurofly 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 3.0% 4.6%

Milan-Malpensa easyJet 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 4.7% 8.9% 16.7% 24.7%

(MXP) Lufthansa 5.1% 5.8% 5.6% 4.6% 4.5% 4.7% 4.7% 4.5% 5.5% 14.1%

 Alitalia 55.9% 58.2% 56.7% 58.4% 58.3% 60.3% 55.6% 51.0% 23.1% 7.2%

 Air France/KLM 2.8% 3.5% 4.1% 4.0% 3.5% 4.6% 4.4% 4.2% 5.6% 5.8%

Air One 0.0% 0.0% 1.1% 1.6% 1.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 3.7% 3.8%

Milan-Orio Serio Ryanair 0.0% 0.0% 37.9% 54.8% 60.4% 55.7% 58.9% 57.7% 67.1% 81.4%

(BGY) Wizz Air 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.4% 3.2% 1.3% 1.2% 4.1% 7.3%

 Alitalia 0.0% 0.0% 8.7% 0.0% 0.0% 2.2% 3.0% 2.4% 2.2% 1.5%

 Blue Air Transport Ae 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 1.3%

 Astraeus Ltd. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6%

Munich Lufthansa 51.8% 53.4% 54.4% 53.2% 54.6% 57.5% 56.5% 56.4% 58.4% 59.2%

(MUC) Air Berlin 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.6% 1.4% 1.5% 7.7% 10.8% 10.7%

 Air France/KLM 2.3% 2.5% 2.5% 2.2% 2.7% 2.9% 2.7% 2.5% 2.4% 2.6%

 Germanwings 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% 1.4% 2.1% 2.5% 2.2% 2.2%

 TUIfly 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.9% 2.5% 2.2% 2.2%

Paris - de Gaulle Air France/KLM 55.7% 56.2% 57.8% 57.6% 58.3% 60.0% 58.4% 58.1% 57.5% 58.7%

(CDG) easyJet 0.0% 0.0% 1.1% 1.9% 1.9% 1.6% 1.9% 2.3% 3.7% 4.9%

 Lufthansa 4.3% 3.9% 3.2% 2.9% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.1% 3.1% 3.3%

 Alitalia 3.5% 3.4% 3.6% 3.9% 3.1% 2.1% 2.2% 2.2% 2.1% 1.8%

 British Airways 3.6% 4.3% 4.1% 3.9% 2.9% 2.5% 2.4% 1.6% 1.4% 1.2%

Paris - Orly Air France 52.0% 56.6% 58.8% 63.5% 59.1% 59.5% 56.9% 53.2% 50.6% 50.0%

(ORY) easyJet 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.9% 4.8% 5.8% 5.7% 5.7% 5.7% 6.7%

Royal Air Maroc 2.2% 2.5% 2.8% 3.2% 3.2% 3.4% 3.5% 3.6% 3.4% 4.2%

Aigle Azur 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 1.1% 1.5% 2.7% 3.4% 3.5% 3.7%

Vueling Airlines 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.5%

Rome - da Vinci Alitalia 52.5% 52.7% 51.8% 50.3% 49.0% 48.9% 45.2% 42.8% 43.3% 40.0%

(FCO) Air One 4.5% 4.7% 8.0% 8.4% 8.3% 8.3% 10.8% 12.2% 12.6% 9.8%

Meridiana 2.5% 2.3% 2.1% 3.9% 3.8% 3.1% 2.5% 2.4% 2.8% 3.6%

Air France/KLM 2.4% 2.3% 2.7% 2.6% 2.9% 3.4% 3.5% 3.3% 3.2% 3.2%

Lufthansa 3.0% 2.3% 2.8% 2.8% 2.9% 2.9% 3.3% 3.2% 2.9% 3.2%

Zurich SWISS 5.4% 7.8% 58.4% 58.9% 52.0% 52.0% 54.0% 56.1% 56.5% 59.4%

(ZRH) Air Berlin 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.6% 2.5% 3.9% 5.2% 5.6% 6.6% 6.5%

 Lufthansa 4.9% 4.8% 5.6% 4.9% 5.5% 5.5% 5.9% 5.4% 5.1% 4.3%

 British Airways 2.7% 2.7% 2.5% 2.7% 2.8% 3.5% 3.1% 3.4% 3.3% 2.8%

Scandinavian Airlines 1.5% 1.4% 1.9% 2.0% 3.3% 3.7% 3.7% 3.8% 3.4% 2.7%

Source: APGDat (Innovata – data the week of 10/24/09) and Nextgen estimates 
 Airlines Sector Review

Daniel McKenzie, CFA (312) 334-4416 dmckenzie@nextgenres.com 17

Latin American Market Share 

For Latin America, we analyzed the market share trends for 42 airports and separately, 5 major metropolitan areas. 

In general, the region is a part of the world where it’s not a zero sum game when capacity is added, and as such, 

represents a bright spot in the global aviation industry. And while there is a low cost carrier revolution occurring 

across the region, we found stable to improving market share trends for most with few exceptions. 

Lan Chile strengthened is position in Santiago (Chile) while Lan Chile and Lan Peru combined improved their 

position in Lima, and in Colombia, AVIANCA’s market share was unchanged. While Aeromexico and Mexicana are 

at a draw, they were nonetheless able to fend off competition in some of the larger airports and increase their 

market share overall (e.g. Mexicana +2.2% points and Aeromexico +2.4% points). And finally, COPA continues to 

expand its market share in Central America and the northern part of South America. 

The exception in our study was Aerolineas Argentinas. While it remains dominant overall at Buenos Aires 

(Newbery), we found its market share slipping modestly to Lan Chile. 

Brazil: Gol vs. TAM 

Based on average weekly seats for the second half of 2009, Gol ranks as Brazil’s largest carrier, followed by Tam, 

but it’s very close; Gol’s overall market share is 41.8% vs 41.5% for TAM. Azul and Oceanair, meanwhile, are 

much smaller competitors by a wide margin, but growing quickly. So while the competitive dynamic in Brazil 

appears to be transforming slowly, the overall dynamic today can still be characterized as a duopoly. 

On balance, we found TAM’s market share trends mixed at individual airports whereas Gol gained market share in 

almost every one of its markets. Despite the mixed performance across hubs, TAM’s overall market share when 

looking at 2009 full year vs 2008 full year, nonetheless increased 2.8% points (+0.6% points in Brazil’s 7 major 

airports), and is up 34.8% points since 2000. 

Gol’s 2009 market share [in Brazil] increased about 6% points from 2008. The carrier is admittedly a rare success 

story in the context of the global airline industry, growing from 0% market share in 2000 to about 39% of the 

Brazilian market today. 

At São Paulo-Congonhas and Rio de Janeiro-Galeão), two of Brazil’s key airports, Gol has surpassed or achieved 

nearly equal market share with TAM, while at São Paulo-Guarulhos, TAM maintains a significant lead given broad 

international service. Recently, Gol has begun adding capacity to other countries in Latin America. For example, 

Gol’s market share at Buenos Aires-Pistarini (Argentina’s largest international airport) increased by 6.9% points in 

2009 to 14.3% of the total market, second only to Aerolineas Argentinas. 

Brazil’s [relatively] new entrants, Azul and Oceanair, are showing market share gains as well. Azul operates 

primarily out of Campinas, an airport about 1 to 1.5 hours outside Sao Paulo, while Oceanair’s largest operations 

are at Campo Grande and Rio de Janeiro (Dumont). Depending on the airport, the gains come largely at the 

expense of either Gol or Tam. 

See Figures 13-15. 
 Airlines Sector Review

Daniel McKenzie, CFA (312) 334-4416 dmckenzie@nextgenres.com 18

Exhibit 13: Percentage of Scheduled Seats by Airport – Latin America 

Based on departing seats for all non-stop destinations by airport, includes regional partner flying if applicable 

Carrier Airport 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009E

Aerolineas Argentinas Buenos Aires (Newbery) 54.2% 46.6% 48.0% 68.1% 74.3% 76.2% 83.3% 76.4% 66.9% 64.4%

Buenos Aires (Pistarini) 8.4% 10.6% 11.3% 13.3% 12.9% 13.1% 15.0% 17.4% 14.0% 13.7%

System 36.1% 29.2% 30.6% 39.3% 40.5% 41.5% 42.6% 42.7% 35.8% 36.4%

Aeromexico Guadalajara 33.8% 35.7% 35.0% 31.7% 31.6% 31.1% 31.4% 24.2% 24.4% 26.4%

Mexico City 32.7% 34.1% 35.5% 33.2% 32.9% 31.1% 32.4% 32.1% 30.8% 32.6%

Monterrey 49.5% 47.7% 44.8% 41.6% 38.4% 37.6% 37.5% 26.8% 26.7% 30.7%

System 35.2% 36.3% 36.7% 34.1% 33.5% 32.0% 32.9% 29.7% 28.9% 31.2%

AVIANCA Bogota 46.3% 43.6% 48.2% 51.3% 48.3% 49.0% 52.6% 60.4% 63.6% 62.0%

Cali 44.7% 40.9% 42.7% 51.4% 52.2% 49.9% 57.3% 64.3% 67.4% 71.9%

System 46.0% 43.2% 47.3% 51.3% 49.0% 49.1% 53.4% 61.1% 64.2% 63.9%

COPA / AeroRepública Bogota 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.7% 11.8% 21.7% 18.9% 15.1% 13.9%

San Jose, Costa Rica 10.0% 7.2% 6.5% 9.2% 9.5% 8.9% 11.0% 11.6% 12.6% 14.5%

Panama City 55.9% 57.7% 60.7% 65.6% 65.8% 67.6% 74.6% 76.4% 75.5% 78.9%

System 11.6% 11.7% 12.3% 13.7% 14.3% 22.0% 30.4% 29.6% 28.9% 30.5%

Gol/VARIG São Paulo (Congonhas) 0.0% 1.3% 11.6% 20.3% 22.7% 29.4% 32.9% 30.2% 34.1% 47.4%

(Top 7 Airports) Brasilia 0.0% 1.2% 9.7% 19.4% 18.6% 25.0% 33.5% 39.5% 39.4% 46.1%

Rio de Janeiro (Galeão) 0.0% 1.5% 9.2% 14.0% 16.5% 27.7% 39.0% 42.5% 42.3% 48.1%

São Paulo (Guarulhos) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.2% 7.0% 16.1% 24.0% 24.0% 27.9%

Belo Horizonte 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 34.3% 43.6% 44.8% 45.1% 53.0%

Curitiba 0.0% 1.3% 10.8% 25.6% 28.3% 34.1% 41.4% 41.9% 47.7% 49.6%

Salvador 0.0% 1.4% 8.6% 18.2% 20.1% 25.8% 33.2% 37.5% 37.8% 42.6%

System 0.0% 0.9% 7.6% 14.8% 16.1% 23.4% 31.4% 34.3% 35.9% 42.6%

LACSA San Jose, Costa Rica 33.1% 32.4% 30.1% 27.4% 25.0% 25.9% 27.3% 30.6% 35.1% 33.3%

San Salvador 4.9% 6.5% 5.4% 5.2% 4.5% 5.5% 8.4% 8.6% 15.0% 14.0%

Guatemala City 6.9% 7.4% 7.7% 7.0% 6.4% 4.5% 7.3% 9.2% 12.6% 15.7%

System 17.0% 17.1% 15.7% 14.7% 13.9% 14.1% 16.0% 18.3% 23.3% 23.0%

LAN Buenos Aires (Newbery) 54.2% 46.6% 48.0% 68.1% 74.3% 76.2% 83.3% 76.4% 66.9% 64.4%

Buenos Aires (Pistarini) 8.4% 10.6% 11.3% 13.3% 12.9% 13.1% 15.0% 17.4% 14.0% 13.7%

Lima 15.8% 18.1% 22.3% 25.5% 33.6% 45.7% 45.7% 45.4% 49.0% 56.0%

Santiago 54.4% 64.3% 67.7% 67.0% 65.7% 64.7% 66.5% 63.2% 63.0% 71.1%

System 36.4% 36.4% 39.0% 44.0% 45.9% 48.7% 50.1% 49.3% 47.5% 51.4%

Mexicana Guadalajara 34.3% 33.7% 33.2% 31.7% 32.5% 32.8% 32.4% 24.4% 23.1% 29.8%

Mexico City 29.8% 31.0% 31.5% 31.1% 30.1% 31.4% 34.0% 35.4% 36.7% 37.1%

Monterrey 15.0% 16.3% 17.9% 17.7% 14.3% 10.5% 11.0% 10.2% 11.6% 16.4%

System 28.7% 29.6% 29.9% 29.3% 28.2% 28.6% 30.4% 29.1% 29.8% 32.6%

TACA San Salvador 65.1% 68.6% 71.0% 71.5% 70.5% 68.4% 65.8% 67.8% 60.6% 59.7%

Guatemala City 24.2% 38.5% 34.2% 31.6% 27.2% 29.3% 26.4% 29.6% 29.0% 23.7%

Lima 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.9% 6.3% 5.6% 4.9% 4.3%

System 19.1% 23.0% 24.7% 24.4% 23.0% 23.3% 23.9% 23.9% 20.9% 18.4%

TAM São Paulo (Guarulhos) 10.0% 14.4% 20.3% 16.1% 16.8% 17.5% 25.7% 34.7% 40.2% 43.5%

(Top 7 Airports) São Paulo (Congonhas) 0.0% 47.4% 47.9% 43.0% 41.1% 44.1% 49.5% 48.6% 46.3% 47.3%

Brasilia 17.7% 35.3% 43.4% 43.6% 42.8% 47.8% 54.3% 53.7% 47.2% 48.4%

Rio de Janeiro (Galeão) 5.6% 10.7% 17.6% 12.5% 5.5% 14.5% 27.6% 36.2% 40.0% 38.8%

Salvador 16.9% 25.1% 30.5% 23.1% 19.2% 34.3% 47.3% 50.2% 50.6% 48.2%

Curitiba 22.0% 50.3% 53.1% 39.5% 36.1% 34.0% 40.5% 41.4% 41.1% 42.4%

Belo Horizonte 11.7% 11.4% 28.2% 25.1% 25.0% 42.9% 52.2% 47.1% 43.8% 40.0%

System 9.6% 29.1% 35.3% 31.1% 28.6% 32.6% 41.1% 43.6% 43.8% 44.4%

Industry Weighted Average 19.1% 23.0% 26.7% 28.5% 28.2% 31.5% 36.8% 38.0% 38.1% 41.1%

Source: APGDat (Innovata – data the week of 10/24/09) and Nextgen estimates 
 Airlines Sector Review

Daniel McKenzie, CFA (312) 334-4416 dmckenzie@nextgenres.com 19

Exhibit 14: Seat Share Study by Metropolitan Area, Latin America

Based on departing seats for all non-stop destinations from hub cities, sorted by 2009E 

Metro Carrier 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009E

Argentina Aerolineas Argentinas 43.5% 34.7% 36.0% 46.1% 47.9% 47.7% 47.6% 45.1% 40.4% 40.2%

Buenos Aires LAN 3.3% 5.1% 5.4% 7.0% 7.1% 8.8% 14.0% 15.3% 17.4% 18.8%

(AEP, EZE) Gol 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 3.8% 5.1% 4.4% 7.7%

TAM 0.0% 2.2% 2.0% 2.8% 3.0% 2.7% 3.6% 4.8% 4.7% 5.1%

American Airlines 2.1% 2.6% 3.2% 4.1% 4.7% 4.5% 4.6% 4.2% 4.8% 4.5%

Belize American Airlines 24.4% 25.2% 19.7% 16.3% 20.5% 21.7% 22.2% 25.9% 27.7% 25.7%

Belize City Maya Island Air 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 20.6%

(BZE, TZA) Continental Airlines 19.0% 17.5% 19.2% 14.1% 15.8% 16.2% 15.9% 17.5% 19.5% 17.8%

TACA 22.0% 21.4% 23.2% 16.8% 18.1% 17.8% 17.1% 18.9% 18.5% 14.2%

Tropic Air Limited 22.6% 25.0% 19.2% 16.5% 16.9% 16.7% 16.8% 18.2% 17.2% 7.3%

Brazil Gol 0.0% 1.8% 13.7% 28.7% 30.6% 36.1% 43.4% 41.2% 42.1% 49.2%

Belo Horizonte TAM 3.2% 38.5% 39.1% 35.5% 34.1% 43.1% 51.5% 44.9% 41.2% 37.6%

(CNF, PLU) TRIP 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.5% 5.3%

Oceanair 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.7% 2.4% 2.5%

Azul 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.3%

Rio de Janeiro Gol 0.0% 0.8% 11.1% 19.9% 22.5% 28.9% 36.3% 38.4% 38.8% 45.7%

(GIG, SDU) TAM 3.0% 22.5% 26.6% 21.3% 16.4% 22.0% 31.8% 37.8% 40.5% 40.0%

Oceanair 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 2.1% 1.7% 2.7%

Azul 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.8%

Air France 0.5% 0.7% 0.9% 1.0% 1.1% 1.6% 1.5% 1.5% 1.6% 1.6%

São Paulo TAM 6.2% 31.3% 35.7% 31.4% 30.3% 32.5% 39.4% 42.3% 43.5% 43.6%

(CGH, CPQ, Gol 0.0% 0.6% 6.4% 12.2% 13.8% 19.9% 26.3% 27.8% 29.3% 35.4%

GRU, VCP) Azul 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.1%

Oceanair 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 1.9% 1.9% 2.5%

American Airlines 2.6% 1.9% 1.7% 1.9% 2.2% 2.3% 1.9% 1.7% 1.7% 1.5%

Source: APGDat (Innovata – data the week of 10/24/09) and Nextgen estimates 

Exhibit 15: Seat Share Study by Airport, Latin America

Based on departing seats for all non-stop destinations from hub airports, sorted by 2009E 

Country Market Carrier 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009E

Argentina Buenos Aires (Newbery) Aerolineas Argentinas 54.2% 46.6% 48.0% 68.1% 74.3% 76.2% 83.3% 76.4% 66.9% 64.4%

(AEP) LAN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.5% 12.6% 12.6% 22.2% 26.5%

Primeras Lineas 4.3% 5.4% 5.1% 4.9% 6.6% 6.2% 3.1% 7.5% 5.0% 4.1%

TRIP 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.5% 2.7% 2.8%

Andes Lineas Aereas 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 1.8% 2.7% 1.9%

Buenos Aires (Pistarini) Aerolineas Argentinas 27.2% 22.0% 22.6% 26.2% 26.4% 24.2% 23.3% 21.5% 21.8% 18.8%

(EZE) Gol 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.9% 6.4% 9.0% 7.5% 14.3%

LAN 8.4% 10.6% 11.3% 13.3% 12.9% 13.1% 15.0% 17.4% 14.0% 13.7%

TAM 0.0% 4.5% 4.1% 5.3% 5.4% 5.0% 6.0% 8.4% 8.0% 9.5%

American Airlines 5.2% 5.5% 6.8% 7.7% 8.6% 8.1% 7.8% 7.3% 8.2% 7.7%

Brazil Belem TAM 4.6% 24.9% 30.5% 33.0% 40.8% 49.9% 53.4% 52.6% 52.5% 51.8%

(BEL) Gol 0.0% 0.0% 9.2% 20.6% 20.5% 20.3% 29.5% 37.9% 42.4% 43.3%

TRIP 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.8%

Surinam Airways Ltd. 1.8% 1.5% 1.2% 1.6% 1.4% 1.4% 1.2% 0.7% 0.8% 1.0%

Taf Linhas Aereas S/A 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.8% 4.8% 2.2% 0.8%

Belo Horizonte Gol 0.0% 1.8% 13.7% 28.7% 30.6% 36.1% 43.4% 41.2% 42.1% 49.2%

(CNF) TAM 3.2% 38.5% 39.1% 35.5% 34.1% 43.1% 51.5% 44.9% 41.2% 37.6%

TRIP 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.5% 5.3%

Oceanair 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.7% 2.4% 2.5%

Azul 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.3%

Brasilia TAM 17.7% 35.3% 43.4% 43.6% 42.8% 47.8% 54.3% 53.7% 47.2% 48.4%

(BSB) Gol 0.0% 1.2% 9.7% 19.4% 18.6% 25.0% 33.5% 39.5% 39.4% 46.1%

Oceanair 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 1.9% 3.9% 3.8%

TAP 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 1.0% 0.8%

Passaredo 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 0.6%

Source: APGDat (Innovata – data the week of 10/24/09) and Nextgen estimates 
 Airlines Sector Review

Daniel McKenzie, CFA (312) 334-4416 dmckenzie@nextgenres.com 20

Exhibit 15: Seat Share Study by Airport, Latin America

Based on departing seats for all non-stop destinations from hub airports, sorted by 2009E 

Country Market Carrier 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009E

Brazil (continued) Campo Grande TAM 19.0% 52.6% 48.2% 43.9% 45.9% 61.5% 73.8% 57.1% 52.0% 42.1%

(CGR) Gol 0.0% 0.0% 17.0% 26.8% 29.3% 32.7% 23.7% 33.4% 36.4% 34.6%

Oceanair 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.0% 7.8% 12.1%

TRIP 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 3.8% 7.6%

Azul 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.7%

Curitiba Gol 0.0% 1.3% 10.8% 25.6% 28.3% 34.1% 41.4% 41.9% 47.7% 49.6%

(CWB) TAM 22.0% 50.3% 53.1% 39.5% 36.1% 34.0% 40.5% 41.4% 41.1% 42.4%

TRIP 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 2.6% 3.0%

Azul 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.6%

Oceanair 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 6.4% 3.3% 1.6%

Florianopolis Gol 0.0% 4.2% 18.9% 26.4% 34.1% 35.9% 49.8% 41.1% 44.8% 49.6%

(FLN) TAM 17.9% 29.3% 30.5% 29.5% 24.0% 26.1% 35.5% 47.4% 43.1% 44.1%

Oceanair 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.6% 3.6% 5.5%

Lan Chile 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.5%

Aerolineas Argentinas 2.8% 2.6% 0.8% 0.6% 0.8% 0.8% 0.7% 0.5% 0.2% 0.3%

Fortaleza TAM 17.7% 26.4% 30.8% 23.8% 20.1% 33.4% 46.7% 45.5% 45.8% 58.7%

(FOR) Gol 0.0% 0.0% 7.1% 19.6% 21.9% 28.0% 33.0% 44.4% 42.3% 33.8%

Oceanair 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% 2.0% 2.2% 2.1%

TAP 1.2% 1.2% 1.3% 1.8% 4.2% 3.8% 3.3% 3.0% 3.3% 2.0%

Azul 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.7%

Goiania Gol 0.0% 0.0% 5.4% 11.6% 10.7% 18.0% 31.4% 38.7% 47.3% 51.0%

(GYN) TAM 17.9% 37.3% 39.9% 54.5% 63.9% 70.4% 62.6% 57.5% 47.4% 42.1%

Passaredo 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.3% 1.7% 4.3%

TRIP 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.7%

Manaus TAM 4.8% 16.1% 15.3% 19.0% 17.0% 21.6% 28.9% 39.5% 46.4% 42.5%

(MAO) Gol 0.0% 0.0% 3.7% 11.0% 11.2% 21.4% 31.6% 37.4% 41.1% 45.2%

TRIP 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 2.1% 5.5%

Azul 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.6%

Oceanair 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.3%

Natal TAM 19.3% 18.8% 28.0% 29.2% 24.9% 37.2% 43.5% 50.1% 49.7% 50.4%

(NAT) Gol 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 3.0% 9.2% 20.3% 36.4% 41.9% 39.8% 40.1%

TAP 0.7% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 1.8% 5.3% 6.4% 5.2% 5.7% 4.7%

TRIP 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 2.6% 3.5%

TUI Airlines Nederland 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5%

Porto Alegre Gol 0.0% 1.4% 9.0% 22.1% 28.4% 32.8% 44.0% 45.1% 49.2% 49.5%

(POA) TAM 21.7% 32.4% 32.8% 24.6% 18.3% 27.7% 31.5% 39.5% 37.7% 39.5%

Azul 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.6%

Oceanair 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.2% 3.7% 2.9% 3.7%

Aerolineas Argentinas 0.9% 0.6% 1.2% 2.0% 1.9% 1.9% 1.6% 1.3% 1.2% 1.1%

Recife Gol 0.0% 0.6% 5.8% 13.1% 16.0% 23.2% 32.0% 39.8% 39.9% 46.7%

(REC) TAM 15.7% 21.2% 29.2% 29.4% 26.1% 33.5% 48.5% 46.2% 45.0% 43.1%

Oceanair 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 5.1% 5.3% 2.6%

TAP 2.6% 2.3% 2.1% 2.1% 2.6% 2.6% 2.6% 2.4% 2.5% 2.1%

Azul 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.9%

Rio de Janeiro (Dumont) TAM 0.0% 34.1% 34.2% 28.8% 27.3% 34.5% 40.0% 41.7% 41.6% 42.0%

(SDU) Gol 0.0% 0.0% 12.8% 25.0% 28.5% 31.0% 30.9% 28.2% 29.0% 41.5%

Oceanair 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 1.9% 3.9% 7.7%

Azul 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.5%

TRIP 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.4%

Rio de Janeiro (Galeão) Gol 0.0% 1.5% 9.2% 14.0% 16.5% 27.7% 39.0% 42.5% 42.3% 48.1%

(GIG) TAM 5.6% 10.7% 17.6% 12.5% 5.5% 14.5% 27.6% 36.2% 40.0% 38.8%

Air France 0.9% 1.3% 1.9% 2.1% 2.2% 2.5% 2.3% 2.1% 2.2% 2.4%

TAP 1.0% 1.6% 1.2% 1.5% 2.0% 1.6% 1.9% 2.1% 2.1% 1.9%

American Airlines 4.6% 4.0% 3.1% 2.0% 2.5% 1.7% 1.5% 1.5% 1.3% 1.4%

Salvador TAM 16.9% 25.1% 30.5% 23.1% 19.2% 34.3% 47.3% 50.2% 50.6% 48.2%

(SSA) Gol 0.0% 1.4% 8.6% 18.2% 20.1% 25.8% 33.2% 37.5% 37.8% 42.6%

Azul 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.6%

TAP 0.6% 1.1% 1.1% 1.3% 2.0% 2.4% 2.6% 2.2% 1.9% 1.5%

Oceanair 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% 5.2% 2.8% 1.6%

Source: APGDat (Innovata – data the week of 10/24/09) and Nextgen estimates 
 Airlines Sector Review

Daniel McKenzie, CFA (312) 334-4416 dmckenzie@nextgenres.com 21

Exhibit 15: Seat Share Study by Airport, Latin America

Based on departing seats for all non-stop destinations from hub airports, sorted by 2009E 

Country Market Carrier 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009E

Brazil (continued) São Paulo (Campinas)1 Azul 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 44.7%

(VCP, CPQ) TAM 12.9% 55.3% 48.7% 38.9% 37.1% 45.7% 50.8% 53.5% 52.5% 27.3%

Gol 0.0% 0.6% 10.8% 30.8% 34.9% 37.2% 45.8% 42.3% 43.2% 25.9%

TRIP Linhas Aéreas 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 4.3% 2.1%

São Paulo (Congonhas) Gol 0.0% 1.3% 11.6% 20.3% 22.7% 29.4% 32.9% 30.2% 34.1% 47.4%

(CGH) TAM 0.0% 47.4% 47.9% 43.0% 41.1% 44.1% 49.5% 48.6% 46.3% 47.3%

Oceanair 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% 2.2% 2.4% 3.1%

Pantanal Linhas Aereas 1.4% 0.8% 1.1% 2.2% 2.2% 2.1% 1.9% 1.9% 1.8% 2.2%

TRIP 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

São Paulo (Guarulhos) TAM 10.0% 14.4% 20.3% 16.1% 16.8% 17.5% 25.7% 34.7% 40.2% 43.5%

(GRU) Gol 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.2% 7.0% 16.1% 24.0% 24.0% 27.9%

American Airlines 4.5% 3.7% 3.9% 4.5% 5.1% 5.1% 4.4% 3.6% 3.4% 3.0%

Lan Chile 1.9% 1.8% 1.9% 2.5% 1.8% 1.7% 2.3% 3.0% 1.7% 1.9%

British Airways 1.6% 1.6% 1.3% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.0% 1.9% 1.6% 1.7%

Vitoria TAM 1.7% 38.2% 35.1% 38.1% 30.5% 47.0% 57.5% 60.6% 60.8% 46.1%

(VIX) Gol 0.0% 0.0% 19.8% 24.3% 29.1% 28.3% 34.8% 36.8% 38.1% 44.8%

Azul 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 7.0%

TRIP 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.7% 2.1%

Chile Santiago LAN 54.4% 64.3% 67.7% 67.0% 65.7% 64.7% 66.5% 63.2% 63.0% 71.1%

(SCL) Sky Airline 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.6% 7.1% 7.8% 6.8% 6.2% 7.3% 6.6%

American Airlines 3.7% 3.4% 3.2% 3.2% 3.3% 3.2% 3.2% 2.9% 2.8% 2.9%

Gol 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.9% 5.2% 3.4% 2.6%

TAM 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 1.4% 1.9% 1.5% 2.9%

Colombia Barranquilla AVIANCA 57.0% 48.7% 50.0% 42.0% 54.1% 51.0% 57.8% 62.1% 63.1% 64.2%

(BAQ) COPA/AeroRepública 4.8% 4.6% 5.4% 6.4% 6.5% 26.5% 30.2% 25.0% 20.3% 22.1%

Aires S.A. 1.7% 7.0% 10.1% 12.7% 12.9% 12.1% 9.3% 10.5% 12.6% 13.7%

American Airlines 5.7% 4.6% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 4.0% 0.0%

Job Air s.r.o 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Bogota AVIANCA 46.3% 43.6% 48.2% 51.3% 48.3% 49.0% 52.6% 60.4% 63.6% 62.0%

(BOG) COPA/AeroRepública 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.7% 11.8% 21.7% 18.9% 15.1% 13.9%

Aires S.A. 4.2% 2.9% 2.8% 3.0% 3.0% 2.9% 3.3% 3.5% 3.8% 7.3%

Servicio Aereoa 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.1% 3.5%

American Airlines 3.1% 2.6% 2.2% 2.2% 2.3% 2.3% 2.2% 2.0% 2.1% 1.6%

Cali AVIANCA 44.7% 40.9% 42.7% 51.4% 52.2% 49.9% 57.3% 64.3% 67.4% 71.9%

(CLO) COPA/AeroRepública 2.9% 2.9% 2.8% 2.8% 2.7% 15.5% 27.5% 25.6% 20.8% 15.5%

Aires S.A. 2.3% 2.3% 2.0% 1.8% 1.8% 1.6% 0.7% 0.7% 2.8% 6.7%

Servicio Aereoa 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% 2.8%

American Airlines 4.7% 4.6% 4.3% 4.0% 4.1% 4.4% 3.1% 3.1% 3.0% 2.5%

Cartagena AVIANCA 54.8% 50.1% 46.2% 43.4% 49.4% 45.0% 48.9% 65.0% 68.8% 63.1%

(CTG) COPA/AeroRepública 5.6% 5.0% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0% 20.8% 30.4% 26.3% 19.4% 21.2%

Aires S.A. 2.9% 6.1% 7.2% 9.8% 11.9% 10.6% 6.1% 8.7% 8.7% 12.1%

Spirit Airlines 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.1% 2.7%

Lan Chile 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.9%

Virgin America 20.9% 19.4% 17.9% 14.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Medellin AVIANCA 35.2% 33.5% 39.5% 51.0% 51.5% 42.0% 49.0% 67.2% 69.9% 61.2%

(MDE) COPA/AeroRepública 2.6% 2.5% 2.7% 2.6% 2.6% 14.0% 23.0% 23.8% 20.8% 19.5%

Aires S.A. 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 7.3%

American Airlines 0.0% 0.0% 1.5% 2.9% 3.5% 3.7% 3.0% 3.4% 5.9% 5.1%

Lan Chile 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% 2.6%

San Andres Island COPA/AeroRepública 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 28.7% 39.9% 64.1% 64.3% 66.5%

(ADZ) AVIANCA 35.4% 16.6% 13.6% 0.0% 2.1% 5.9% 11.2% 21.6% 25.5% 25.4%

Servicio Aereoa 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.9% 4.8%

Aires S.A. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.2%

Sociedad Aeronautica 38.4% 32.9% 32.1% 32.2% 16.4% 10.7% 7.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Costa Rica San Jose LACSA 33.1% 32.4% 30.1% 27.4% 25.0% 25.9% 27.3% 30.6% 35.1% 33.3%

(SJO) COPA/AeroRepública 10.0% 7.2% 6.5% 9.2% 9.5% 8.9% 11.0% 11.6% 12.6% 14.5%

American Airlines 13.8% 14.2% 15.6% 15.4% 15.9% 13.9% 14.5% 14.8% 14.5% 13.5%

Continental Airlines 7.8% 9.1% 9.4% 8.9% 7.1% 6.8% 8.5% 9.0% 9.0% 10.6%

Delta Air Lines 3.4% 4.5% 3.5% 3.6% 3.0% 5.1% 5.4% 5.0% 5.1% 4.7%

1 Viracopos IATA airport code is VCP and Campinas IATA city code is CPQ. Sometimes both codes are used as one (as technically, both are located at 23.00 latitude 

and 47.13 longitude) although there is a distinction between them in airline reservation systems: VCP, together with Congonhas (CGH) and Guarulhos (GRU), is part 

of the multiple airport system set around the city of São Paulo (code SAO). CPQ is the specific city code of Campinas. 

 Source: APGDat (Innovata – data the week of 10/24/09), Wikipedia.com; and Nextgen estimates 
 Airlines Sector Review

Daniel McKenzie, CFA (312) 334-4416 dmckenzie@nextgenres.com 22

Exhibit 15: Seat Share Study by Airport, Latin America

Based on departing seats for all non-stop destinations from hub airports, sorted by 2009E 

Country Market Carrier 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009E

Ecuador Quito Tame (Del Ecuador) 3.9% 26.1% 47.7% 46.6% 37.1% 34.3% 30.8% 31.6% 38.7% 26.9%

(UIO) Aerogal 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 1.2% 7.6% 12.2% 17.5% 19.8% 20.1% 22.7%

Icaro S.A. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 6.3% 15.8% 14.3% 20.3% 16.7% 13.6% 11.2%

Lan Ecuador 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 6.1% 4.7% 6.1% 5.9% 4.6% 3.3% 8.7%

AVIANCA 13.8% 10.6% 9.4% 10.5% 8.5% 7.6% 7.6% 6.4% 5.1% 4.9%

Guayaquil Aerogal 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.3% 13.7% 15.4% 23.1% 26.7% 27.7% 36.3%

(GYE) Tame (Del Ecuador) 5.2% 32.4% 54.2% 48.5% 36.0% 38.2% 34.1% 34.5% 41.0% 28.9%

Icaro S.A. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.7% 9.0% 7.4% 10.6% 9.2% 8.2% 10.8%

COPA/AeroRepública 7.0% 5.7% 2.5% 4.5% 4.4% 4.4% 3.9% 3.1% 3.2% 4.3%

LAN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Guatemala Guatemala City TACA 24.2% 38.5% 34.2% 31.6% 27.2% 29.3% 26.4% 29.6% 29.0% 23.7%

(GUA) COPA/AeroRepública 10.8% 9.2% 9.0% 10.0% 9.0% 8.3% 11.1% 11.0% 11.8% 16.1%

LACSA 6.9% 7.4% 7.7% 7.0% 6.4% 4.5% 7.3% 9.2% 12.6% 15.7%

American Airlines 10.3% 9.7% 12.4% 13.7% 13.6% 11.7% 13.4% 12.7% 12.9% 13.9%

Continental Airlines 6.9% 8.4% 8.8% 9.4% 8.0% 7.4% 8.0% 8.0% 9.6% 11.7%

Mexico Cancun Mexicana 33.6% 31.1% 30.9% 27.6% 22.4% 18.3% 18.6% 16.8% 16.1% 16.5%

(CUN) American Airlines 11.9% 12.2% 15.2% 15.0% 17.1% 15.5% 13.9% 10.7% 10.3% 10.8%

Continental Airlines 9.1% 9.7% 10.8% 9.0% 9.2% 9.2% 8.1% 7.9% 7.9% 8.8%

US Airways 1.9% 3.0% 4.5% 6.3% 8.2% 8.0% 7.1% 6.8% 6.5% 6.8%

Delta Air Lines 2.3% 2.6% 2.3% 2.4% 3.3% 4.5% 5.1% 5.3% 5.0% 5.3%

Guadalajara Mexicana 34.3% 33.7% 33.2% 31.7% 32.5% 32.8% 32.4% 24.4% 23.1% 29.8%

(GDL) Aeromexico 33.8% 35.7% 35.0% 31.7% 31.6% 31.1% 31.4% 24.2% 24.4% 26.4%

Volaris 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.7% 6.2% 12.2% 15.5%

InterJet 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.5% 8.7% 12.5%

AVIACSA 3.4% 7.8% 8.2% 9.4% 10.5% 10.6% 11.0% 8.9% 8.0% 4.2%

Mexico City Mexicana 29.8% 31.0% 31.5% 31.1% 30.1% 31.4% 34.0% 35.4% 36.7% 37.1%

(MEX) Aeromexico 32.7% 34.1% 35.5% 33.2% 32.9% 31.1% 32.4% 32.1% 30.8% 32.6%

InterJet 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.3% 7.8%

AVIACSA 5.5% 7.7% 7.6% 8.2% 9.1% 9.8% 9.0% 9.2% 10.0% 4.7%

Aeromar 3.8% 3.6% 3.5% 3.3% 3.0% 3.1% 3.4% 4.1% 4.0% 3.8%

Monterrey Aeromexico 49.5% 47.7% 44.8% 41.6% 38.4% 37.6% 37.5% 26.8% 26.7% 30.7%

(MTY) VivaAerobus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% 17.3% 17.6% 19.1%

Mexicana 15.0% 16.3% 17.9% 17.7% 14.3% 10.5% 11.0% 10.2% 11.6% 16.4%

InterJet 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.9% 11.3% 13.1%

AVIACSA 11.1% 15.3% 18.5% 22.4% 29.1% 33.8% 29.8% 22.3% 15.7% 7.3%

Toluca Volaris NA 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 77.4% 47.9% 38.7% 53.6%

(TLC) InterJet NA 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 49.9% 57.8% 43.1%

Aeromexico NA 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 12.1% 0.0% 0.0% 2.4%

Continental Airlines NA 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 43.8% 85.6% 4.3% 0.9% 0.6% 0.9%

Aeromar NA 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Nicaragua Managua COPA/AeroRepública 35.5% 40.5% 39.8% 37.4% 33.7% 34.5% 31.4% 30.4% 29.1% 28.2%

(MGA) TACA 23.9% 24.9% 28.7% 26.8% 27.7% 26.9% 29.7% 24.9% 22.9% 19.9%

American Airlines 9.9% 11.9% 16.6% 11.9% 14.1% 16.4% 17.8% 18.4% 17.1% 18.6%

Continental Airlines 8.0% 8.1% 8.5% 7.8% 6.6% 7.1% 7.4% 7.5% 10.7% 11.5%

LACSA 7.5% 8.5% 0.0% 0.5% 2.8% 7.9% 4.3% 4.5% 7.7% 10.7%

Panama Panama City COPA/AeroRepública 55.9% 57.7% 60.7% 65.6% 65.8% 67.6% 74.6% 76.4% 75.5% 78.9%

(PTY) Continental Airlines 8.9% 8.4% 9.5% 8.4% 7.4% 6.9% 4.4% 4.5% 4.4% 4.4%

American Airlines 8.4% 6.8% 7.4% 6.4% 6.1% 5.5% 5.2% 4.7% 5.0% 4.0%

AVIANCA 2.9% 5.1% 5.2% 5.4% 5.0% 4.4% 4.1% 3.6% 3.0% 2.7%

LACSA 2.1% 1.6% 0.8% 0.0% 0.3% 1.8% 2.1% 2.0% 2.6% 1.8%

Peru Lima LAN 15.8% 18.1% 22.3% 25.5% 33.6% 45.7% 45.7% 45.4% 49.0% 56.0%

(LIM) TACA 5.1% 9.5% 8.1% 10.1% 10.3% 12.1% 11.8% 13.9% 16.4% 15.6%

Star Peru 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.9% 6.3% 5.6% 4.9% 4.3%

American Airlines 5.9% 6.1% 5.3% 5.4% 6.2% 6.0% 3.8% 3.7% 3.5% 3.0%

COPA/AeroRepública 2.2% 2.1% 2.3% 2.5% 2.2% 2.0% 2.1% 2.2% 2.3% 2.5%

Venezuela Caracas Aserca Airlines, C.A. 15.5% 14.8% 13.1% 15.2% 11.1% 12.4% 15.4% 17.1% 29.9% 22.8%

(CCS) CONVIASA 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.1% 7.2% 11.9% 8.6% 10.7%

Santa Barbara Airlines 0.0% 5.7% 3.6% 3.7% 7.7% 7.3% 4.5% 8.1% 7.1% 8.4%

American Airlines 8.1% 6.6% 5.9% 4.7% 8.9% 8.5% 8.5% 7.7% 7.5% 7.5%

Aviones de Oriente 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.5% 6.4% 6.4% 6.9%

Source: APGDat (Innovata – data the week of 10/24/09) and Nextgen estimates 
 Airlines Sector Review

Daniel McKenzie, CFA (312) 334-4416 dmckenzie@nextgenres.com 23

Japan 

Exhibit 16: Seat Share Study by Airport, Japan

Based on departing seats for all non-stop destinations from hub airports, sorted by 2009E 

Market Carrier 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009E

Nagoya All Nippon Airways 41.4% 40.3% 41.2% 40.1% 38.8% 36.2% 35.5% 33.4% 34.5% 35.9%

(NGO) Japan Airlines 22.4% 21.9% 22.7% 23.6% 32.5% 33.8% 31.5% 30.0% 30.5% 29.1%

 Delta-Northwest 2.1% 3.3% 4.0% 4.3% 4.7% 4.2% 4.7% 4.8% 5.2% 4.6%

 Korean Air Lines 3.0% 3.1% 3.3% 3.2% 3.1% 3.4% 4.0% 3.6% 3.3% 4.5%

 Air Next Co., Ltd. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 1.6% 1.5% 3.7%

Osaka All Nippon Airways 45.0% 47.3% 47.4% 46.9% 50.3% 51.9% 55.0% 54.1% 50.7% 49.8%

(ITM) Japan Airlines 23.9% 22.9% 21.9% 30.7% 44.2% 46.8% 43.7% 44.6% 47.9% 48.8%

 Ibex Airlines 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.7% 1.0% 1.3% 1.3% 1.4% 1.4% 1.4%

Osaka Japan Airlines 26.2% 25.8% 27.3% 30.3% 31.7% 33.1% 28.5% 28.7% 30.9% 27.8%

(KIX) All Nippon Airways 25.7% 23.0% 24.2% 25.9% 21.2% 20.5% 22.3% 23.6% 22.5% 21.5%

 Korean Air Lines 3.6% 3.6% 3.9% 4.3% 4.8% 4.6% 4.6% 4.7% 4.7% 6.6%

 Asiana Airlines 1.4% 1.9% 2.4% 2.5% 2.8% 2.7% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 4.5%

Cathay Pacific Airways 2.8% 3.0% 3.3% 3.3% 3.9% 3.0% 3.1% 3.3% 3.2% 3.9%

Tokyo (Haneda) All Nippon Airways 42.8% 43.4% 44.5% 45.2% 44.7% 44.6% 45.4% 45.6% 44.9% 46.2%

(HND) Japan Airlines 24.3% 23.7% 23.7% 25.6% 41.9% 46.2% 44.1% 42.3% 41.6% 41.6%

 Skymark Airlines 0.6% 0.6% 1.0% 1.9% 3.0% 3.7% 3.8% 4.8% 4.6% 3.2%

 Skynet Asia Airways Co. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 2.9%

Air Do 1.0% 1.6% 1.2% 1.5% 2.2% 3.1% 3.6% 3.1% 2.9% 2.9%

Tokyo (Narita) Japan Airlines 28.8% 29.5% 28.9% 27.4% 27.3% 27.4% 26.6% 26.9% 28.7% 28.3%

(NRT) All Nippon Airways 9.9% 9.8% 11.3% 12.0% 11.9% 12.3% 12.9% 14.2% 14.9% 15.2%

 Delta-Northwest 13.7% 13.4% 12.8% 11.3% 11.0% 10.6% 10.2% 10.5% 10.9% 11.2%

 United Airlines 9.1% 9.1% 8.6% 7.6% 7.5% 6.9% 6.5% 5.7% 5.2% 5.6%

Korean Air Lines 4.0% 4.0% 4.1% 3.9% 3.8% 3.7% 3.5% 3.6% 3.6% 3.9%

Japan Airlines includes Japan Airlines; JALways; JAL Express; Japan Air Commuter; Japan Transocean Air; ; Source: APGDat (Innovata – data 

the week of 11/16/09) and Nextgen estimates 

~ We would like to thank Gavin Bristow, Paul Ko, David Palm, and Frances Tong 

for their invaluable contribution to this report ~
 Airlines Sector Review

Daniel McKenzie, CFA (312) 334-4416 dmckenzie@nextgenres.com 24

* Coverage Initiated

INDUSTRIALS

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*Albany International (AIN) *Lindsay Corp. (LNN) *Anixter International Inc. (AXE) *Commscope Inc. (CTV)

*Briggs & Stratton Corp (BGG) *Manitex (MNTX) *Belden CDT (BDC) *General Cable Corp. (BGC)

*Federal Signal Corp (FSS) *Northern Technologies Int'l Corp. *Black Box Corp.

*Gardner Denver Inc (GDI) *Spartan Motors Inc. (SPAR)

*Graco Inc (GGG) *Valmont Industries, Inc.(VMI)

*IDEX Corp (IEX) *Xerium Technologies (XRM)

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*Ametek, Inc (AME) *Digital Ally (DGLY) *AM Castle & Co (CAS) *Olympic Steel (ZEUS)

*A.O. Smith Corp (AOS) *Franklin Electric Co, Inc (FELE) *AMCOL International (ACO) Reliance Steel (RS)

*AZZ Inc. (AZZ) *Powell Industries (POWL) *Haynes International Inc. (HAYN) *Synalloy (SYNL)

*Insteel Industries (IIN) *Universal Stainless & Alloy (USAP)

*Metalico (MEA) Worthington Industries (WOR)

*Aitran (AAI) Republic Airlines (RJET) Babcock & Brown (FLY) Aercap (AER)

*Alaska (ALK) Copa (CPA) Genesis Lease (GLS) Aircastle (AYR)

Allegiant (ALGT) Westjet (WJA.TO)

*AMR (AMR) LAN Airlines (LFL)

*Continental (CAL) TAM S.A. (TAM)

*Delta Airlines (DAL) GOL Airline (GOL)

*jetBlue (JBLU) easy Jet (EJT.F)

*Southwest (LUV) Mesa Air Group (MESA)

*UAL Corp (UAUA) ExpressJet (XJT)

*US Airways (LCC) SkyWest (SKYW)

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 Airlines Sector Review

Daniel McKenzie, CFA (312) 334-4416 dmckenzie@nextgenres.com 25

THIS IS NOT IN ANY SENSE A SOLICITATION OR OFFER OF THE PURCHASE OR SALE OF SECURITIES. 

THE FACTUAL STATEMENTS HEREIN HAVE BEEN TAKEN FROM SOURCES WE BELIEVE TO BE RELIABLE, 

BUT SUCH STATEMENTS ARE MADE WITHOUT ANY REPRESENTATION AS TO ACCURACY OR 

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PRICES SHOWN ARE APPROXIMATE. Copyright © 2007, Next Generation Equity Research, L.L.C.

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