### MARCH 31, 2014 | HOLYOKE, MA



# ISO Staff Energy

- Efficiency Forecast Working Group 

# Draft Final Energy

- Efficiency

Forecast 2018

- 2023

# Outline

• Introduction

• Energy

- Efficiency (EE) Program Data summary

• EE Forecast Assumptions

• EE Forecast Input Data

• EE Forecast Results

2

# EE Forecast ISO New England Contacts

Eric Winkler, Ph.D., System Planning

ewinkler@iso

- ne.com

David Ehrlich, System Planning

dehrlich@iso

- ne.com

Eric Wilkinson, External Affairs

ewilkinson@iso

- ne.com

3

# Acronyms

• EE

— Energy Efficiency

• EEFWG

— Energy

- Efficiency Forecast Working Group

• FCM

— Forward Capacity Market

• PA

— Program Administrator

• PAC

— Participants Advisory Group

• RGGI

— Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative

• SBC

— System Benefit Charge

• CSO

— Capacity Supply Obligation (FCM)

• RSP

— Regional System Plan

• CELT

— 10

- year forecast of capacity, energy, loads and

transmission

4

# Introduction

• This presentation contains the draft final energy

- efficiency forecast

for the 2018

- 2023 period

• The forecast estimates reductions in energy and demand from

state

- sponsored energy

- efficiency programs in the New England

control area by region and state (CT, MA, ME, NH, RI, VT)

• Data used to create the forecast originates from state

- sponsored

energy

- efficiency Program Administrators and state regulatory

agencies

• The forecast is informed by a stakeholder process facilitated by ISO

New England’s Energy

- Efficiency Forecast Working Group

5

# Introduction cont.

• The energy

- efficiency forecast is based on averaged

production costs, peak

- to

- energy ratios and projected

budgets of state

- sponsored energy

- efficiency programs

• This forecast follows the same fundamental forecast process

and methodology used since the first EE forecast in 2012

• Inputs to this initial draft forecast consist of:

– EE forecast methodology, developed by the ISO

– EE program data provided by EE PAs

– EE Forecast Working Group Stakeholder input provided at the

November 26, 2013 meeting

– Budget projections provided by NE regulators and PAs

6

# Introduction cont.

• The EE forecast is used in ISO studies looking beyond the FCM

timeframe such as:

– Long

- term transmission planning studies

– Economic planning studies

– Other planning studies



# • The Final EE forecast is incorporated into the CELT report and

Regional System Plan

• The EE forecast is developed on an annual basis by the ISO

with stakeholder input from the EEFWG and PAC

7

# Introduction cont.

• EE forecast will not impact:

– ICR/Local Sourcing Requirement/Maximum Capacity Limit

– FCM auctions

– FCM related reliability studies (qualification, de

- list, non

- price

retirement)

– Any System Operations analysis across the four

- year FCM window



# • In the near term (0

- 3 years), EE is integrated into the planning

processes as qualified capacity delivered by regulated utilities

through the ISO NE Forward Capacity Market

8

# Introduction cont.

• The ISO received formal public comments on the initial draft

forecast presented at the February 11, 2014 EEFWG meeting.

• Comments and the ISO response may be viewed at

http://www.iso

- ne.com/eefwg

• The ISO plans to issue the final EE forecast May 2014 in both

PowerPoint and written report formats

9

# 2014 ENERGY

- EFFICIENCY FORECAST

SUMMARY

# Summary of 2014 Forecast

• EE forecast results are slightly larger than the 2013 forecast results

due to increased budgets in ME and CT

• Program performance changes from 2013 forecast

– Production cost increased slightly, resulting in an decrease in energy

reductions from equivalent budget $

– Peak

- to

- Energy Ratios decreased slightly, resulting in smaller demand

reductions from equivalent energy reductions



# • Results vary state by state

• Generally, energy remains flat for the region with notable

reductions in energy in VT and RI

• Generally, demand reductions from EE slows peak growth rate in

the region

11

# EE FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS

# EE Forecast Model General Assumptions

• Annual budgets provided by the Commissions or representatives on their

behalf are used in model and held constant in years after the latest

approved budget

• Realization Rate and Percent Spent variables are combined into a single

budget uncertainty factor

• Production cost baselines are derived from a 3 year average of recent

performance

• The production cost escalation rate is set at 5% per year

• Inflation rate is set at 2.5% per year

• Peak

- to

- Energy Ratios are derived from a 3 year average of recent

performance and held constant through forecast period*

• Current CELT/RSP energy forecast used in conjunction with SBCs to

forecast SBC dollars

13 

### * Maine’s three year planned production data were used for Peak

- to

- Energy Ratio in the analysis

# 2014 Updated EE Forecast Model

Implementation Assumptions

• 2013 CELT/RSP Energy Forecast

• FCA8 Clearing Price and CSO was used for calculating budget $

• Production Cost: Updated with PA 2010

- 2012 average

• Production Cost Escalation Rate: Remains 5% + 2.5% inflation

• Peak

- to

- Energy Ratio: Updated with PA 2010

- 2012 average

• State Budget Data: only CT and ME submitted new budgets

• Budget Uncertainty: MA stays at 20% and RI stays at 10%, based

on average spend rates observed in PA data and large increases in budget $

• For ME used production costs and peak

- to

- energy ratios from

state budget due to substantial increase in budget and its impact

on them

14

# Fundamentals of EE Forecast Model

15 

# 1) MWh = [ (1

- BU) * Budget $ ] 

# / [ $/MWh * PCINCR ]

where:

Budget $ = an estimate of the dollars to be spent on EE ($)

(System Benefit Charge + RGGI + FCM + Policy)

BU = budget uncertainty (%)

$/MWh = production cost ($/MWh)

PCINCR = production cost increases (%)



# 2) MW = MWh * PER

where:

PER = peak

- to

- energy ratio (MW/MWh)

# EE Forecast Model Budget Assumptions

Regarding Forward Capacity Market

• FCM capacity clearing price was held constant at $7.025/kW

month†, the latest FCA existing capacity clearing price for

Capacity Commitment Period 2017

- 18

• ISO assumed that all achieved EE capacity would be bid into

and clear in future FCA’s‡

• The forecast calculated Capacity Supply Obligation was used

to determine FCM contribution to budget

16 † 

## FCA clearing price used is for modeling purposes only and should not be considered an indication

of future clearing prices.

‡ 

## The ISO assumption that all achieved EE capacity would be bid into and clear in future FCA’s is

only for modeling purposes and should not be considered an indication of any future FCA outcome.

# Comparison of EE Forecasts

• Comparison of the 2013 and 2014 forecast for the 2022

production year is made to illustrate the forecast transitions

from year to year

• The 2014 forecast ends in 2023, so the final numbers in the

following table are only for this comparison

• See remaining slides for the final 2014 forecast of 2023 period

1718 

# Comparison of EE Forecasts

PA Average Production Costs ($/ MWh ) ME NH VT CT RI MA

2013 EEF 190 306 324 335 349 399

2014 EEF 337 320 317 353 380 394

% Change 77.4 4.6

- 2.2 5.4 8.9

- 1.3

PA Average Peak to Energy Ratio (MW/GWh) ME NH VT CT RI MA

2013 EEF 0.1150 0.1660 0.1472 0.1259 0.1615 0.1443

2014 EEF 0.1410 0.1622 0.1409 0.1215 0.1546 0.1346

% Change 22.6

- 2.3

- 4.3

- 3.5

- 4.3

- 6.7

Total Dollars in 2022 ($1000s) ME NH VT CT RI MA ISONE

2013 EEF 30,107 31,267 65,430 118,346 77,681 515,121 837,952

2014 EEF 52,000 39,235 65,430 218,839 78,598 514,989 969,092

Summer EE Peak Impacts 2018

- 2022 (MW) ME NH VT CT RI MA ISONE

EE2013

- TOTAL 49 46 78 121 99 511 904

EE2014

- TOTAL 87 56 82 218 95 520 1,058

EE2013

- Average 10 9 16 24 20 102 181

EE2014

- Average 17 11 16 44 19 104 212

Annual EE Energy Impacts 2018

- 2022 ( GWh ) ME NH VT CT RI MA ISONE

EE2013

- TOTAL 431 275 526 963 613 3,544 6,353

EE2014

- TOTAL 616 348 579 1,796 616 3,863 7,817

EE2013

- Average 86 55 105 193 123 709 1,271

EE2014

- Average 123 70 116 359 123 772 1,5630

# COMPARISON OF 2014 AND 2013 EE

FORECAST ENERGY AND DEMAND PLOTS20 150 175 200 225 250

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 

# ISONE Energy Efficiency on Summer Peak (MW)

EEF

- 2013 EEF

- 201421 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 

# ISONE Energy Efficiency on Annual Energy (GWh)

EEF

- 2013 EEF

- 2014

# EE PROGRAM DATA SUMMARY23 

# PA Data Summary

Total Achieved Achieved Peak to

Budget Costs Annual Dollars Summer Dollars % Energy % Budget % Peak Energy Ratio

$1000s $1000s Energy (MWh) per MWh Peak (MW) per MW Achieved Spent Achieved MW/GWH

NE

2009 357,939 352,374 933,803 377 150 2,352,612 83 98 94 0.160398

2010 524,416 500,978 1,371,179 365 191 2,616,499 103 96 95 0.139638

2011 665,087 518,865 1,575,303 329 200 2,588,875 90 78 75 0.127227

2012 745,761 648,848 1,723,357 377 223 2,912,977 98 87 86 0.129250

Aver2010

- 12 645,088 556,231 1,556,613 357 205 2,708,981 96 86 85 0.131907

CT

2009 102,183 73,411 222,500 330 34 2,150,181 60 72 63 0.153447

2010 143,543 144,938 405,042 358 50 2,907,253 113 101 105 0.123083

2011 129,909 119,426 381,974 313 43 2,769,495 93 92 87 0.112892

2012 120,176 121,826 308,428 395 40 3,032,765 131 101 124 0.130241

Aver2010

- 12 131,210 128,730 365,148 353 44 2,900,482 109 98 103 0.121546

ME

2009 13,806 55,176 250 6 2,127,537 662 0 472 0.117605

2010 16,846 74,180 227 8 2,198,392 101 0 102 0.103303

2011 22,817 152,663 149 18 1,248,348 117 0 100 0.119727

2012 23,712 143,531 165 12 1,904,462 101 0 114 0.086747

Aver2010

- 12 21,125 123,458 171 13 1,650,762 107 0 105 0.103657

MA

2009 183,782 192,362 424,652 453 70 2,751,448 81 105 99 0.164636

2010 294,315 253,086 619,638 408 91 2,769,089 99 86 90 0.147501

2011 432,796 283,898 777,100 365 101 2,823,145 86 66 67 0.129405

2012 508,987 400,607 980,105 409 127 3,165,278 88 79 75 0.129132

Aver2010

- 12 412,033 312,531 792,281 394 107 2,931,156 90 76 76 0.134578

NH

2009 18,286 17,988 59,691 301 10 1,889,281 139 98 137 0.159504

2010 21,866 21,763 73,710 295 12 1,759,778 121 100 117 0.167779

2011 17,667 18,904 58,042 326 10 1,910,830 123 107 121 0.170445

2012 19,673 18,703 53,973 347 8 2,376,142 106 95 101 0.145832

Aver2010

- 12 19,735 19,790 61,909 320 10 1,970,384 117 100 113 0.162234

RI

2009 24,555 26,211 81,543 321 15 1,702,327 103 107 123 0.188820

2010 30,366 27,581 81,275 339 13 2,163,861 107 91 78 0.156826

2011 48,649 36,494 96,009 380 14 2,673,198 94 75 71 0.142195

2012 61,246 48,870 119,666 408 20 2,503,820 93 80 82 0.163104

Aver2010

- 12 46,754 37,648 98,983 380 15 2,459,809 97 81 77 0.154625

VT

2009 29,134 28,597 90,240 317 14 1,997,246 92 98 104 0.158666

2010 34,326 36,764 117,334 313 17 2,107,775 88 107 93 0.148653

2011 36,066 37,325 109,514 341 15 2,502,506 72 103 69 0.136192

2012 35,678 35,130 117,653 299 16 2,172,426 119 98 109 0.137447

Aver2010

- 12 35,357 36,406 114,834 317 16 2,250,639 90 103 88 0.140865

# EE FORECAST INPUT DATA25 

# FCM and RGGI Dollars

RGGI Dollars ($1000s)

ME NH VT CT RI MA ISONE

Annual 9,070 12,112 2,210 17,646 4,984 48,062 94,084

Applied to EE 0 6,056 0 3,529 2,741 48,062 60,388

FCM MW

ME NH VT CT RI MA ISONE

2017 182 79 132 369 175 1,023 1,961

FCM Dollars ($1000s, $7.025/kW

- month)

ME NH VT CT RI MA ISONE

2017 15,369 6,679 11,113 31,086 14,784 86,240 165,272

FCM Dollars for EE ($1000s)

ME NH VT CT RI MA ISONE

2018 0 6,679 0 31,086 14,784 86,240 138,789

2019 0 6,679 0 31,086 14,784 86,240 138,789

2020 0 6,679 0 31,086 14,784 86,240 138,789

2021 0 6,679 0 31,086 14,784 86,240 138,789

2022 0 6,679 0 31,086 14,784 86,240 138,789

2023 0 6,679 0 31,086 14,784 86,240 138,78926 

### 2013 RSP Energy Forecast (GWh)

ME NH VT CT RI MA ISO

- NE

2018 12,815 13,255 6,930 36,250 9,175 67,515 145,940

2019 12,895 13,370 6,980 36,545 9,255 68,220 147,265

2020 12,970 13,490 7,020 36,835 9,320 68,900 148,535

2021 13,045 13,615 7,065 37,120 9,380 69,550 149,775

2022 13,125 13,740 7,110 37,400 9,435 70,195 151,005

2023 13,195 13,865 7,160 37,690 9,495 70,840 152,245

2013 RSP Energy Forecast

- FCM Passive Demand Resources (GWh)

ME NH VT CT RI MA ISO

- NE

2018 11,780 12,842 6,106 34,402 8,400 62,941 136,471

2019 11,860 12,957 6,156 34,697 8,480 63,646 137,796

2020 11,932 13,075 6,194 34,981 8,543 64,313 139,037

2021 12,010 13,202 6,241 35,272 8,605 64,976 140,306

2022 12,090 13,327 6,286 35,552 8,660 65,621 141,536

2023 12,160 13,452 6,336 35,842 8,720 66,266 142,776

SBC Eligibility 75% 100% 100% 94% 100% 

### 86%

SBC Eligible 2013 RSP Energy Forecast

- FCM Passive Demand Resources (GWh)

ME NH VT CT RI MA ISO

- NE

2018 8,835 12,842 6,106 32,200 8,400 54,130 122,512

2019 8,895 12,957 6,156 32,477 8,480 54,736 123,700

2020 8,949 13,075 6,194 32,743 8,543 55,309 124,812

2021 9,007 13,202 6,241 33,015 8,605 55,880 125,949

2022 9,067 13,327 6,286 33,277 8,660 56,434 127,051

2023 9,120 13,452 6,336 33,548 8,720 56,989 128,165 

# Energy Forecast27 

### SALES (GWh)

ME NH VT CT RI MA ISO

- NE

2018 8,335 12,115 5,760 30,378 7,925 51,066 115,578

2019 8,391 12,223 5,807 30,638 8,000 51,638 116,698

2020 8,442 12,335 5,843 30,889 8,059 52,178 117,747

2021 8,497 12,454 5,888 31,146 8,118 52,717 118,820

2022 8,554 12,572 5,930 31,393 8,170 53,240 119,860

2023 8,604 12,690 5,977 31,649 8,226 53,763 120,910



### SBC Dollars ($1000s )

ME NH VT CT RI MA

SBC Rate ($/ kwh ) 0.000 0.0018 0.0000 0.0030 0.0088 0.0025

ME NH VT CT RI MA ISO

- NE

2018 0 2,1807 0 91,133 68,880 12,7664 309,483

2019 0 22,002 0 91,915 68,664 129,094 311,674

2020 0 22,204 0 92,668 68,348 130,445 313,664

2021 0 22,418 0 93,438 68,086 131,792 315,734

2022 0 22,630 0 94,180 67,811 133,100 317,720

2023 0 22,842 0 94,948 67,632 134,408 319,830

Total 0 133,903 0 558,282 409,421 786,503 1,888,105 

# Energy Sales (GWh) and System Benefit Charge ($)

# Impacts of New EE on Revenue Streams

28 

### Lost SBC Dollars ($1000s)

ME NH VT CT RI MA ISO

- NE

2018 0 133 0 1,186 1,401 2,191 4,912



### 2019 0 258 0 2,294 2,715 4,234 9,501



### 2020 0 375 0 3,329 3,946 6,138 13,787



### 2021 0 484 0 4,294 5,098 7,913 17,790



### 2022 0 587 0 5,196 6,176 9,568 21,526



### 2023 0 682 0 6,038 7,185 11,110 25,016



### Total 0 2,519 0 22,337 26,521 41,154 92,532



### New FCM Dollars ($1000s)

ME NH VT CT RI MA ISO

- NE

2018 0 1,014 0 4,051 1,854 9,944 16,862



### 2019 0 1,962 0 7,833 3,592 19,215 32,602



### 2020 0 2,849 0 11,364 5,221 27,858 47,292



### 2021 0 3,680 0 14,662 6,745 35,915 61,002



### 2022 0 4,457 0 17,740 8,171 43,425 73,794



### 2023 0 5,184 0 20,615 9,506 50,426 85,732



### Total 0 19,146 0 76,265 35,089 186,783 317,28429 

# Policy Dollars and Total Budgets

Policy Dollars ($1000s )

ME NH VT CT RI MA ISO

- NE

2018 52,000 0 57,548 77,500 0 360,945 547,993



### 2019 52,000 0 59,638 77,500 0 355,831 544,969



### 2020 52,000 0 62,599 77,500 0 351,063 543,162



### 2021 52,000 0 63,196 77,500 0 346,619 539,315



### 2022 52,000 0 65,430 77,500 0 342,476 537,406



### 2023 52,000 0 67,513 77,500 0 338,615 535,628



### Total 312,000 0 375,924 465,000 0 2,095,549 3,248,473



### Total Budgets ($1000s )

ME NH VT CT RI MA ISO

- NE

2018 52,000 35,422 57,548 206,112 78,172 504,531 933,785



### 2019 52,000 36,440 59,638 209,568 78,360 507,367 943,374



### 2020 52,000 37,413 62,599 212,819 78,433 510,025 953,288



### 2021 52,000 38,348 63,196 215,920 78,533 512,572 960,570



### 2022 52,000 39,235 65,430 218,839 78,598 514,989 969,092



### 2023 52,000 40,079 67,513 221,640 78,731 517,313 977,276



### Total 312,000 226,937 375,924 1,284,898 470,827 3,066,797 5,737,38530 

# Production Costs and Peak

- to

- Energy Ratio

Production Cost Multiplier (includes inflation)

ME NH VT CT RI MA



### 2012 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

2013 1.000 1.075 1.075 1.075 1.075 1.075

2014 1.000 1.075 1.075 1.075 1.075 1.075

2015 1.000 1.075 1.075 1.075 1.075 1.075

2016 1.000 1.075 1.075 1.075 1.075 1.075

2017 1.075 1.075 1.075 1.075 1.075 1.075

2018 1.075 1.075 1.075 1.075 1.075 1.075

2019 1.075 1.075 1.075 1.075 1.075 1.075

2020 1.075 1.075 1.075 1.075 1.075 1.075

2021 1.075 1.075 1.075 1.075 1.075 1.075

2022 1.075 1.075 1.075 1.075 1.075 1.075

2023 1.075 1.075 1.075 1.075 1.075 1.075

Production Costs $/MWh

ME NH VT CT RI MA



### 2012 337 320 317 353 380 394

2013 337 344 341 379 409 424

2014 337 370 366 408 439 455

2015 337 398 394 439 472 489

2016 337 427 423 471 507 526

2017 362 459 455 507 546 566

2018 389 494 489 545 586 608

2019 419 531 526 586 630 654

2020 450 571 565 630 678 703

2021 484 614 608 677 729 755

2022 520 660 653 728 783 812

2023 559 709 702 782 842 873

Peak

- to

- Energy Ratio (MW/GWh)

ME NH VT CT RI MA



### 0.1410 0.1622 0.1409 0.1215 0.1546 0.1346

# EE FORECAST RESULTS TABLE32 

# Energy and Summer Peak EE Forecast Data

GWh Savings

ME NH VT CT RI MA ISO

- NE

2018 142 76 125 401 141 880 1,764

2019 132 73 120 379 132 823 1,658

2020 122 69 117 358 123 769 1,560

2021 114 66 110 338 114 719 1,462

2022 106 63 106 319 106 672 1,373

2023 99 60 102 300 99 628 1,288

Total 714 408 681 2,096 715 4,491 9,105

Average 119 68 113 349 119 749 1,518



### MW Savings

ME NH VT CT RI MA ISO

- NE

2018 20 12 18 49 22 118 239



### 2019 19 12 17 46 20 111 225



### 2020 17 11 17 44 19 104 211



### 2021 16 11 16 41 18 97 198



### 2022 15 10 15 39 16 90 186



### 2023 14 10 14 37 15 85 174



### Total 101 66 96 255 111 605 1,233



### Average 17 11 16 42 18 101 205

# CHANGE IN REPRESENTATION OF EE IN FCM

# Appending the EE Forecast to the last year of

FCM Passive Demand Resources

• In the representation of the total contribution of EE, the EE

forecast is appended to the last year of FCM Passive Demand

Resources (PDR)

– The 2013 CELT forecast had FCM PDR from 2010

- 2016 and the 2013 EE

forecast from 2017

- 2022



# • The CELT report and Load Forecasting documentation and

presentations use the current CSO values in calculating peaks

and energy net of FCM PDR

• Transmission Planning uses a different measure of FCM PDR:

existing qualified capacity

34

# Appending the EE Forecast to the last year of

FCM Passive Demand Resources

• Starting with the 2014 CELT, System Planning will be using the

existing qualified capacity along with the EE forecast for the CELT

report and Load Forecasting in calculating the peaks and energy net

of FCM PDR

• The change to FCM existing qualified capacity from CSOs should

eliminate dramatic changes in the representation of the forecast

primarily due to market activity

– Examples of market impacts include: EE expiring measures, static and

dynamic delist bids, and proration



# • Use of FCM existing qualified capacity will be more representative

of physically installed measures

• FCM existing qualified capacity is consistent with the inputs to

Transmission Planning processes

3536 2642 2961

1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 2200 2400 2600 2800 3000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 ISO

- NE 2013 CELT PASSIVE DR: CSO AND TRPL EXIST QUAL (MW)



### CSO EXIST QUAL



# • Flat area in CSO line between 2015 and 2016 resulted from static

delist bids due to low winter qualification

• Using Existing Qualified Capacity eliminates depression and

reflects the continued growth in EE 

# Comparison of 2017

- 2022 Forecast Using Existing

Qualified Capacity Versus CSO Reflected in EE

Contribution



# } + 319 MW37 34105

31463

31144

28000 29000 30000 31000 32000 33000 34000 35000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 ISO

- NE 2013 CELT 90/10 SUMMER PEAK FORECAST (MW)

WITH NET OF CSO AND NET OF TRPL EXIST QUAL



### CELT NET:CSO NET:EXQU 

# Comparison of 2017

- 2022 Forecast Using Existing

Qualified Capacity Versus CSO Reflected in Load

Forecast

• Uptick in CSO line between 2015 and 2016 resulted from static

delist bids due to low winter qualification

• Using Existing Qualified Capacity eliminates depression of

savings and reflects the continued growth in EE }



# - 319 MW

# EE FORECAST DEMAND PLOTS39 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 

# ISONE Energy Efficiency on Summer Peak (MW)

FCM+EEF FCM

# IMPACT OF EE FORECAST ON ENERGY AND

SUMMER PEAK LOAD FORECAST41 28000 29000 30000 31000 32000 33000 34000 35000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 

# ISONE 90/10 Summer Peak: RSP13 Forecast (MW)

RSP13 RSP13

- FCM

- EEF RSP13

- FCM42 125000 130000 135000 140000 145000 150000 155000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 

# ISONE Annual Energy: RSP13 Forecast (GWh)

RSP13 RSP13

- FCM

- EEF RSP13

- FCM43 26000 28000 30000 32000 34000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 

# ISONE 50/50 Summer Peak: RSP13 Forecast (MW)

RSP13 RSP13

- FCM

- EEF RSP13

- FCM

# STATE FORECASTS

# State

- Level Assumptions

- Connecticut

• Budget: Based on commission approved 2013 budget

– Increase in FCM dollars due to increase in clearing price



# • Budget Uncertainty Rate: none

• Production Cost: Based on average of 2010

- 2012 PA data

• Production Cost Escalation Rate: 5% + 2.5% inflation

• Peak to Energy Ratio: Based on average of 2010

- 2012 PA data

• Increased budget dollars due to an all cost effective policy

4546 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 

# CT Energy Efficiency on Summer Peak (MW)

EEF

- 2013 EEF

- 201447 150 200 250 300 350 400 450

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 

# CT Energy Efficiency on Annual Energy (GWh)

EEF

- 2013 EEF

- 201448 150 250 350 450 550 650 750

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 

# CT Energy Efficiency on Summer Peak (MW)

FCM+EEF FCM49 31000 32000 33000 34000 35000 36000 37000 38000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 

# CT Annual Energy: RSP13 Forecast (GWh)

RSP13 RSP13

- FCM

- EEF RSP13

- FCM50 7500 7750 8000 8250 8500 8750 9000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 

# CT 90/10 Summer Peak: RSP13 Forecast (MW)

RSP13 RSP13

- FCM

- EEF RSP13

- FCM

# State

- Level Assumptions

- Massachusetts

• Budget: Based on commission approved 2013 budget

– Increase in FCM dollars due to increase in clearing price is offset by

reductions in Policy dollars



# • Budget Uncertainty Rate: 20%

• Production Cost: Based on average of 2010

- 2012 PA data

• Production Cost Escalation Rate: 5% + 2.5% inflation

• Peak to Energy Ratio: Based on average of 2010

- 2012 PA data

5152 80 90 100 110 120 130

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 

# MA Energy Efficiency on Summer Peak (MW)

EEF

- 2013 EEF

- 201453 550 600 650 700 750 800 850 900 950

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 

# MA Energy Efficiency on Annual Energy (GWh)

EEF

- 2013 EEF

- 201454 250 500 750 1000 1250 1500 1750

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 

# MA Energy Efficiency on Summer Peak (MW)

FCM+EEF FCM55 13000 14000 15000 16000 17000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 

# MA 90/10 Summer Peak: RSP13 Forecast (MW)

RSP13 RSP13

- FCM

- EEF RSP13

- FCM56 58000 60000 62000 64000 66000 68000 70000 72000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 

# MA Annual Energy: RSP13 Forecast (GWh)

RSP13 RSP13

- FCM

- EEF RSP13

- FCM

# State Level Assumptions

- Maine

• Budget: Based on commission approved 2014

- 2016 budget

– FCM revenue not used in budget



# • Budget Uncertainty Rate: none

• Production Cost: Based on average of 2014

- 2016 budget

• Production Cost Escalation Rate: 5% + 2.5% inflation

• Peak to Energy Ratio: Based on average of 2014

- 2016 budget

5758 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 

# ME Energy Efficiency on Summer Peak (MW)

EEF

- 2013 EEF

- 201459 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 

# ME Energy Efficiency on Annual Energy (GWh)

EEF

- 2013 EEF

- 201460 0 50 100 150 200 250 300

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 

# ME Energy Efficiency on Summer Peak (MW)

FCM+EEF FCM61 2000 2100 2200 2300 2400 2500

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 

# ME 90/10 Summer Peak: RSP13 Forecast (MW)

RSP13 RSP13

- FCM

- EEF RSP13

- FCM62 11000 11500 12000 12500 13000 13500

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 

# ME Annual Energy: RSP13 Forecast (GWh)

RSP13 RSP13

- FCM

- EEF RSP13

- FCM

# State

- Level Assumptions

- New Hampshire

• Budget: Based on commission approved 2013 budget

– Increase in FCM dollars due to increase in clearing price



# • Budget Uncertainty Rate: none

• Production Cost: Based on average of 2010

- 2012 PA data

• Production Cost Escalation Rate: 5% + 2.5% inflation

• Peak to Energy Ratio: Based on average of 2010

- 2012 PA data

6364 8 9 10 11 12 13

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 

# NH Energy Efficiency on Summer Peak (MW)

EEF

- 2013 EEF

- 201465 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 

# NH Energy Efficiency on Annual Energy (GWh)

EEF

- 2013 EEF

- 201466 25 50 75 100 125 150 175

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 

# NH Energy Efficiency on Summer Peak (MW)

FCM+EEF FCM67 2500 2600 2700 2800 2900 3000 3100 3200 3300

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 

# NH 90/10 Summer Peak: RSP13 Forecast (MW)

RSP13 RSP13

- FCM

- EEF RSP13

- FCM68 11500 12000 12500 13000 13500 14000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 

# NH Annual Energy: RSP13 Forecast (GWh)

RSP13 RSP13

- FCM

- EEF RSP13

- FCM

# State

- Level Assumptions

- Rhode Island

• Budget: Based on commission approved 2012

- 2014 budget

– Increase in FCM dollars due to increase in clearing price is offset by

reductions in System Benefit dollars



# • Budget Uncertainty Rate: 10%

• Production Cost: Based on average of 2010

- 2012 PA data

• Production Cost Escalation Rate: 5% + 2.5% inflation

• Peak to Energy Ratio: Based on average of 2010

- 2012 PA data

6970 14 16 18 20 22 24 26

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 

# RI Energy Efficiency on Summer Peak (MW)

EEF

- 2013 EEF

- 201471 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 

# RI Energy Efficiency on Annual Energy (GWh)

EEF

- 2013 EEF

- 201472 0 50 100 150 200 250 300

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 

# RI Energy Efficiency on Summer Peak (MW)

FCM+EEF FCM73 2000 2100 2200 2300 2400 2500

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 

# RI 90/10 Summer Peak: RSP13 Forecast (MW)

RSP13 RSP13

- FCM

- EEF RSP13

- FCM74 7500 7800 8100 8400 8700 9000 9300 9600

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 

# RI Annual Energy: RSP13 Forecast (GWh)

RSP13 RSP13

- FCM

- EEF RSP13

- FCM

# State

- Level Assumptions

- Vermont

• Budget: Based on commission approved 2013

- 2023 budget

– FCM revenue not used in budget



# • Budget Uncertainty Rate: none

• Production Cost: Based on average of 2010

- 2012 PA data

• Production Cost Escalation Rate: 5% + 2.5% inflation

• Peak to Energy Ratio: Based on average of 2010

- 2012 PA data

7576 12 14 16 18 20

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 

# VT Energy Efficiency on Summer Peak (MW)

EEF

- 2013 EEF

- 201477 90 100 110 120 130

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 

# VT Energy Efficiency on Annual Energy (GWh)

EEF

- 2013 EEF

- 201478 25 75 125 175 225 275

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 

# VT Energy Efficiency on Summer Peak (MW)

FCM+EEF FCM79 950 1000 1050 1100 1150 1200 1250

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 

# VT 90/10 Summer Peak: RSP13 Forecast (MW)

RSP13 RSP13

- FCM

- EEF RSP13

- FCM80 5400 5800 6200 6600 7000 7400

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 

# VT Annual Energy: RSP13 Forecast (GWh)

RSP13 RSP13

- FCM

- EEF RSP13

- FCM

# NEXT STEPS

# EE Forecast Process

• Present an update to the PAC

- TBD

• Target release of the final EE forecast

- May 2014

• Incorporate into the CELT in May 2014

82

# 2014 EE Forecast Timeline

83 

# Subject to modification