### Final **Report**

**Future Year Electricity Generating Sector Emission Inventory**  **Development Using the Integrated Planning Model (IPM**  **®**

### ) **in Support of Fine Particulate Mass and Visibility**

**Modeling in the VISTAS and Mid west RPO Regions** 

Prepared for

**Visib ility** 

**Improvement State and Tribal A ssociation of the South**  **east (VISTA** **S)**

Prepared by **ICF Resources, L.L.C.**  **9300 Lee High way**  **Fairfax, VA**

**22031**

**Ap ril**  **2005**

### Table of Contents

Table of Contents

................................ ................................ ................................ ....................... 2 A. Overview

................................ ................................ ................................ ............................... 3 B. Modeling Assumptions

................................ ................................ ................................ ........... 3 C. Analysis Resul ts

................................ ................................ ................................ .................... 5 1. Emissions

................................ ................................ ................................ ........................... 5 2. Projected Costs

................................ ................................ ................................ .................. 5 3. Projected Control Technology Retrofits

................................ ................................ .............. 6 4. Projected Generation Mix

................................ ................................ ................................ ... 6 5. Projected Coal Production for the Electric Power Sector

................................ .................... 6 6. Projected Retail Electricity Prices

................................ ................................ ....................... 7 7. Projected Fuel Price Impacts

................................ ................................ .............................. 7 D. Li mitations of Analysis

................................ ................................ ................................ ........... 8 E. Appendix

................................ ................................ ................................ ............................... 9 1. Changes made to the NEEDS NODA Database for the VISTAS Analysis

...................... 9 Table A1 Changes made to NO x 

### Post Combustion Control Installations on Existing Units 10 Table A2 Changes made to NO x 

### Emission Rates (lbs/MMBtu)

................................ .......... 11 Table A3 Changes made to SO 2 

### Scrubber Installations on Existing Units

......................... 15 Table A4 Changes made to SO 2 

### Emission Rate Limits (lbs/MM Btu)

................................ .. 16 Table A5 Changes made to Particulate Matter (PM) Control Installations on Existing Units

................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ .......... 18 Table A6 Changes made to Sum mer Net Dependable Capacity (MW)

.............................. 19 Table A7 Changes made to Heat Rate (Btu/kW h)

................................ ............................. 20 Table A8 Changes made to Unit ID

................................ ................................ ................... 21 Table A9 Duke and Progress Energy SO 2 

### Control Plan for North Carolina Clean Smokestacks Rule

................................ ................................ ................................ ............. 22 Table A10 Duke and Progress Energy NO x 

### Control Plan for North Carolina Clean Smokestacks Rule

................................ ................................ ................................ ............. 23 2. Emission Results

................................ ................................ ................................ ............... 24 Table A11 State Level Base Case NO x 

### Emissions by Season (Thousand Tons)

............... 25 Table A12 State Level Base Case SO 2 

### Emissions by Season (Thousand Tons)

............... 27 Table A13 State Level CAIR Case NO x 

### Emissions by Season (Thousand Tons)

............... 29 Table A14 State Level CAIR Case SO 2 

### Emissions by Season (Thousand Tons)

............... 31 3. G eneration Results

................................ ................................ ................................ ........... 33 Table A15 State Level Base Case Generation by Season (GW h)

................................ ..... 34 Table A16 State Level CAIR Case Generation by Season (GW h)

................................ ..... 36 4. Cost Results

................................ ................................ ................................ ...................... 38 Table A17 FOM Cost by IPM Model Region (Million 1999$)

................................ .............. 39 Table A18 VOM Cost by IPM Model Region (Million 1999$)

................................ .............. 40 Table A19 Fuel Cost by IPM Model Region (Million 1999$)

................................ ............... 41 Table A20 Capital Cost by IPM Model Region (Million 1999$)

................................ ........... 42

### A. **Overview**

In order to model regional haze, visibility and other air quality issues, Visibility Improvement State and Tribal Association of the Southeast (VISTAS) awarded a contract to ICF Resources, L.L.C. (ICF) in August 2004, seeking ICF’s services to generate future year emission inventory for the electric generating sector of the contiguous United States using the Integrated Planning Mode l (IPM **®**

### )

. IPM is a dynamic linear optimization model that can be used to examine air pollution control policies for various pollutants throughout the contiguous U.S. for the entire electric power system. The dynamic nature of IPM enables the projection of the behavior of the power system over a specified future period. The optimization logic determines the least

- cost means of meeting electric generation and capacity requirements while complying with specified constraints including air pollution regulation s, transmission bottlenecks , and plant

-specific operational constraints. The versatility of IPM allows users to specify which constraints to exercise and populate IPM with their own datasets.

This report s ummarizes the analysis that ICF has performed in g enerating the future year e lectricity g enerating s ector e mission i nventory by u sing IPM (hereafter, the analysis is referred to as the VISTAS analysis). The model assumptions and data used in this analysis are presented in Section B and the Appendix. The results are presented in Section C and the analysis limitations are presented in Section D.
Since the modeling is based on the EPA’s prior analyses for which detailed public documentation is available, we have summarized only the incremental changes that were proposed by VISTAS and MRPO as part of this analysis. For detailed documentation on EPA’s prior modeling using IPM, please visit www.epa.gov/airmarkets/epa

- ipm

. **B. Modeling**  **As sumptions** 

The VISTAS analysis is based on the USEPA Modeling Applications Using IPM (V.2.1.6). As per the analytical needs of VISTAS and MRPO, the following changes were made to the underlying assumptions in the US EPA Base Case (V2.1.6) in th is analysis:
i) The underlying database in the VISTAS analysis is US EPA’s National Electric Energy Data System (NEEDS 1 

### ) NODA Database, with changes based upon the comments and technical directions from VISTAS and MRPO’s stakeholders . The changes focused on existing installations of NO x 

### , SO 2 

### and particulate matter (PM) controls, NO x 

### emission rates , SO 2 

### emission limits, capacity of existing units, heat rate and unit identifications of selected units in the VISTAS and MRPO regions. These changes are summarized in detail in Appendix 1.

1 

### The NEEDS database contains the existing and planned/committed unit data in EPA modeling applications of IPM. NEEDS includes basic geographic, operating, air e missions, and other data on these generating units. For data sources underlying NEEDS and description of fields as well as the documentation on EPA Modeling Applications Using IPM (V.2.1.6), please visit website http://www.epa.gov/airmarkets/epa

- ipm/index. html

### ii) The analysis covers the p eriod between 2007 and 2030. To make the model size and run

time tractable , IPM is run for a number of selected years with in the study horizon known as run years

. Each run year represents several calendar years in the study horizon , and all calendar years within the study horizon are mapped to their representative run years. Although results are only reported for the run years, IPM takes into account all years in the study horizon while developing the projections . Table 1 summarizes the mapping between the run years and the calendar years. Model results are available for all run years ; t he last run year (2026) results are
, however, not recommended to be used because of end

-year effects.

**Table 1: IPM Run Years**

**Run Year Calendar Year** **s** 2007 2007

-2007 200 9 2008

-2009 2010 2010

-2012 2015 2013

-2017 2018 2018

-2018 2020 2019

-2022 2026 2023

-2030 iii) The Duke Power and Progress Energy SO 2 

### and NO x 

### control technology investment strategies for complying with North Carolina’s Clean Smoke stacks Rule were explicitly hardwired in the analysis.

i v) The CAIR rule implemented as part of this analysis is broadly consistent with the Environmental Protection Agency 40 CFR Parts 51, et al. Supplemental Proposal for the Rule to Reduce Interstate Tra nsport of Fine Particulate Matter and Ozone (Clean Air Interstate Rule), proposed o n June 10, 2004. Alabama, Arkansas, Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan , M innesota, Mississippi, Missouri, New Jersey, New York, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, West Virginia, W isconsin are the states affected by the CAIR SO 2 

### and the CAIR annual NO x 

### policies starting 2010. Conne cticut is affected by an ozone season NO x 

### policy. The CAIR plants affected by the annual NO x 

### policy are capped at 1.6 million tons starting 2010 and 1.33 million tons starting 2015. The power plants affected by the CAIR SO 2 

### policy have to surrender 2 Title IV SO 2 

### allowances for every ton of SO 2 

### emitted starting 2010 and 3 Title IV SO 2 

### allowances for every ton of SO 2 

### emitted starting 2015.

### C. A**nalysis Results**

ICF ran IPM under two future scenarios

– Base Case and CAIR Case. The Base Case represents the current operation of the power system under currently known laws and regulations, including those that come into force in the study horizon. The CAIR Case is the Base Case with the proposed CAIR rule superimposed. The run results were parsed at the unit level for the 2009 and 2018 run years. Appendix 2 summarizes the SO 2 

### and NO x 

### emission results on a state level. The following paragraphs discuss the results from the two runs.

**1. Emissions**

Table 2 presents the emissions from the Base Case and the CAIR Case i n the VISTAS analysis.

**Table 2: SO**  **2** 

### and NO **x** 

### Emissions from the Electric Power Sector (Million Tons) **Base Case CA** **IR Case 2009**  **2018 2009**  **2018**

**CA IR A**  **ffected Region SO**  **2** 

### 9.1 8.2 5.3 4.1

**NO x** ***** 

### 2.9 3.0 2.8 1.4

**VIST AS** **States SO**  **2** 

### 3.44 2.96 2.28 1.42 **NO x**  

### 1.09 1.09 1.07 0.44

**Mi dw** **est RPO States SO**  **2** 

### 3.05 2.61 1.51 1.33 **NO x**  

### 0.83 0.88 0.83 0.34 

### *Note: Excludes Connecticut In the CAIR region, compared with the Base Case, SO 2 

### emissions would be reduced by 3.8 million tons in 2009 and by 4.1 million tons in 2018. The NO x 

### emissions would be cut by 1.6 million tons annually in 2018, compared with the Base Case.
Total projected state

- level emissions for SO 2 

### and NO x 

### for both the Base Case and the CAIR Case are included in Tables A11 , A12, A13, and A 14 in the Appendix. **2. Projected Costs**
For the proposed CAIR region, the analysis projects the annualized incremental cost for the US to be $2.1 billion in 2009 and $3.6 billion in 2018. This represents a 3.3% increase in production cost in 2009 and a 4.6% increase in 2018 over the base case. The production cost as projected by IPM includes the capital costs of new investment decisions, fuel costs and the operation and maintenance costs of power plants. The marginal costs of emission reductions (allowance prices ) in the CAIR case are shown in Table 3.

### Table 3: **Marginal Costs of Emission Reductions**  **in CA** **IR Case (1999 $)**  **2009 2018** 
**Marginal Cost ($/ton) SO**  **2** 

### 700 1,100 **NO x**  

### 1,500 1,700 **3. Projected Control Technology Retrofits**
In the VISTAS analysis, the proposed CAIR policy requires the installation of an additional 67 GWof SO 2 

### scrubbers and an additional 35 GW of selective catalytic reduction (SCR) on existing coal capacity by 2018 (see Table 4). The pool of existing SCR’s that are used during the ozone
seas on in the NO x 

### SIP call region in the Base Case are allowed to operate year

- round in the CAIR Case

. **Table 4: Pollution Control Installations by**  **Technology**

**in 2018 (GW)** 
**Technology Base Case**  **(Cumulative) CA** **IR Case (Cumulative)**  **Scrubber** 19 86 **SCR** 33 67

**4. Projected Generation Mix**  Table 5 shows the generation mix under the proposed CAIR policy. Coal

-fi red generation and natural gas

-fi red generation are projected to remain relatively unchanged due to the phased

- in nature of the proposed CAIR.

Relative to th e Base Case, in 2009, 2.7 GW of coal

-fired capacity is projected to be uneconomic to maintain ( approximately 1%) and 90 MW of coal

-fired capacity is projected to repower to natural gas in the CAIR Case

. **Table 5: National Generation Mix (**  **Bk Wh**  **’s )**  **Generating Fuel**  **Use 2009**  **2018**

**Base Case CA** **IR Case Base Case**  **CA IR Case**  **Coal** 2,115 2,072 2,219 2,154 **Oil/Natural Gas** 821 862 1,301 1,364 **Other** 1,197 1,197 1,196 1,194

**5. Projected Coal Production for the Electric Power Sector**
Coal production for electricity g eneration is expected to increase with or without the proposed CAIR (Table 6). The reductions in emissions from the power sector will be met through the installation of pollution controls for SO 2 

### and NO x 

### .

### Table 6: **Coal Production in the**  **Electric Power Se ctor (Million Tons)** 

**Supply Ar** **ea 2009**  **2018**

**Base Case CA** **IR Case Base Case**  **CA IR Case**  **Ap palachia**  327 296 297 306 **Interior** 182 184 189 212 **West** 528 545 611 550 **National** 1,038 1,025 1,096 1,067

**6. Projected Retail Electricity Prices**
National average retail electricity price s in the CAIR Case are projected to increase 2.4 percent in 2009 and 1.6 percent in 2018

. Table 7 and Table 8 summarize the national and regional level retail electricity prices. These estimates were developed using the Retail Electri city Price Model

. **Table 7: National A** 

**verage Retail Electricity**  **Prices ( 1999**  **Mills/kWh )**  **Base Case CA** **IR Case Percent Change**  **2009** 59.4 60.9 2.4% 

### 2018 63.2 64.3 1.6% 

### Source: Retail Electricity Price Model as documented in http://www.epa.gov/clearskies/tech_sectiong.pdf Retail electricity prices by NERC region are in Table 8

**Table 8: Retail Electricity**  **Prices by**

**NERC Region ( 1999**  **Mills/kWh) Pow** **er Primary** 

**States Included Base Case**  **CA IR Case**  **Region 2009**  **2018 2009**  **2018** ECAR OH,MI,IN,KY,WV,PA 51.3 56.7 53.8 58.7 

### ERCOT TX 53.0 65.0 54.8 65.3 

### MAAC PA,NJ,MD,DC,DE 56.9 69.3 59.5 71.6 

### MAIN IL,MO,W I 51.9 60.3 53.6 61.7 

### MAPP MN,IA,SD,ND,NE 54.6 49.4 54.7 49.8 

### NY NY 80.0 88.1 81.8 89.6 

### NE VT,NH,ME,MA,CT,RI 73.8 82.8 75.4 83.5 

### FRCC FL 70.8 68.8 71.7 69.6 

### STV VA,NC,SC,GA,AL,MS,TN,AR,LA 56.4 54.1 57.4 55.3 

### SPP KS,OK,MO 52.8 57.4 53.7 58.0 

### PNW WA,OR,ID 50.1 48.0 50.6 48.0 

### RM MT ,WY,CO,UT,NM,AZ,NV,ID 61.5 65.1 62.1 65.2 

### CALI CA 96.8 98.2 97.6 98.3 

### Source: Retail Electricity Price Model as documented in htt p://www.epa.gov/clearskies/tech_sectiong.pdf **7. Projected Fuel Price Impacts**
The impacts of the CAIR on mine mouth coal prices and natural gas prices at the Henry Hub are summarized in Table 9.

### Table 9: **Average Coal Mine Mouth and Henry Hub Natural G as Prices**  **( 1999$/MMBtu)** 

**Fuel Base Case**  **CA IR Case** 

**2009 2018**  **2009 2018**  Coal 0.62 0.55 0.60 0.55 Natural Gas 2.77 2.97 2.9 2.99

**D . Limitations of A** **nalysis**
VISTAS modeling using IPM is based on various economic and engineering input assumptions that are inherently uncertain, such as assumptions for future fuel prices, electricity demand growth and the cost and performance of control technologies. As configured, IPM does not take into account demand response (i.e., consumer reaction to changes in electricity prices).

### E **. A ppendix** 

**1. Changes made to the NEEDS NODA Database for the VISTAS Analysis** 

NEED S NODA is the most recent version of the NEEDS database that EPA has made public. It contains existing and planned/committed generation unit data in the co ntiguous United States. In Appendix 1, the changes suggested by VISTAS and MRPO stakeholders are presented side by side against the values in the original NEEDS NODA for comparison. For d escription of the items changed, please visit website http://www.epa. gov/airmarkets/epa

- ipm/index.html

.**Table A** **1 Changes made to**  **NO x**  **Post Combustion Control Installations on Existing Units** 

**Plant Name Unique ID**  **Post Combustion NO** **x Control**  **(NEEDS NODA) Post Combustion**  **NO x**  **Control (VISTAS)**  **Data Source***

ASHEVILLE 2706_B_1 SNCR None Progress Energy ** BARRY 3_B_1 SNCR None Southern Company BARRY 3_B_2 SNCR None Southern Company BARRY 3_B_3 SNCR None Southern Company BARRY 3_B_4 SNCR None Southern Company Barry 3_G_A1 None SCR Southern Company Barry 3_G_A2ST None SCR S outhern Company MT STORM 3954_B_3 None SCR NC

-WV

- SC PLEASANTS 6004_B_1 None SCR NC

-WV

- SC PLEASANTS 6004_B_2 None SCR NC

-WV

- SC Victor J Daniel Jr 6073_G_3 None SCR Southern Company Victor J Daniel Jr 6073_G_3CT None SCR Southern Company Victor J Danie l Jr 6073_G_4CT None SCR Southern Company * Data Source shows the name s of sheets in NEEDS

- NODA

-VISTAS

-Aug18Rev.xls , provided by Gregory Stella, VISTAS Technical Advisor for Emissions Inventories. ** Progress Energy Compliance Plan for NC Clean Smokestacks Rule shows the existing NOx control as AEFLGR and not SNCR



## .**Table A2 Changes made to NO x**  **Emission Rates (lbs/MMBtu)**

**Plant Name Unique ID**  **Mode1 Rate**  ****** **(VISTAS) Mode2** 

**Rate** ****** **(VISTAS) Mode3** 

**Rate** ****** **(VISTAS) Mode4** 

**Rate** ****** **(VISTAS) Data Source** * GREENE CO UNTY 10_B_1 0.718 0.718 0.468 0.468 Southern Company GREENE COUNTY 10_B_2 0.416 0.416 0.380 0.380 Southern Company Greene County 10_G_GT10 0.090 0.090 0.090 0.090 Southern Company Greene County 10_G_GT2 0.090 0.090 0.090 0.090 Southern Company Greene C ounty 10_G_GT3 0.090 0.090 0.090 0.090 Southern Company Greene County 10_G_GT4 0.090 0.090 0.090 0.090 Southern Company Greene County 10_G_GT5 0.090 0.090 0.090 0.090 Southern Company Greene County 10_G_GT6 0.090 0.090 0.090 0.090 Southern Company Gree ne County 10_G_GT7 0.090 0.090 0.090 0.090 Southern Company Greene County 10_G_GT8 0.090 0.090 0.090 0.090 Southern Company Greene County 10_G_GT9 0.090 0.090 0.090 0.090 Southern Company CROSS 130_B_1 0.100 0.100 0.100 0.100 SC CROSS 130_B_2 0.100 0.1 00 0.100 0.100 SC EATON 2046_B_1 0.280 0.280 0.280 0.280 Southern Company EATON 2046_B_2 0.280 0.280 0.280 0.280 Southern Company EATON 2046_B_3 0.280 0.280 0.280 0.280 Southern Company Chevron Oil 2047_G_1 0.320 0.320 0.320 0.320 Southern Company Chevron Oil 2047_G_2 0.320 0.320 0.320 0.320 Southern Company Chevron Oil 2047_G_3 0.320 0.320 0.320 0.320 Southern Company Chevron Oil 2047_G_4 0.320 0.320 0.320 0.320 Southern Company Chevron Oil 2047_G_5 0.064 0.064 0.064 0.064 Southern Company SW EATT 2048_B_1 0.280 0.280 0.280 0.280 Southern Company SW EATT 2048_B_2 0.280 0.280 0.280 0.280 Southern Company Sweatt 2048_G_A 0.320 0.320 0.320 0.320 Southern Company JACK WATSON 2049_B_1 0.280 0.280 0.280 0.280 Southern Company JACK WATSON 2049_B_2 0.280 0.280 0.280 0.280 Southern Company JACK WATSON 2049_B_3 0.280 0.280 0.280 0.280 Southern Company JACK WATSON 2049_B_4 0.470 0.470 0.415 0.415 Southern Company JACK WATSON 2049_B_5 0.590 0.590 0.415 0.415 Southern Company Jack Watson 2049_G_A 0.880 0.8 80 0.880 0.880 Southern Company E C GASTON 26_B_1 0.473 0.473 0.473 0.473 Southern Company E C GASTON 26_B_2 0.473 0.473 0.473 0.473 Southern Company E C GASTON 26_B_3 0.457 0.457 0.457 0.457 Southern Company E C GASTON 26_B_4 0.457 0.457 0.457 0.457 S outhern Company E C GASTON 26_B_5 0.429 0.060 0.429 0.060 Southern Company E C Gaston 26_G_GT4 0.880 0.880 0.880 0.880 Southern Company ASHEVILLE 2706_B_1 0.491 0.319 0.491 0.319

- CLIFFSIDE 2721_B_5 0.294 0.070 0.294 0.070 NC

-WV

- SC BARRY 3_B_1 0.500 0.500 0.500 0.500 Southern Company BARRY 3_B_2 0.500 0.500 0.500 0.500 Southern Company BARRY 3_B_3 0.300 0.300 0.300 0.300 Southern Company BARRY 3_B_4 0.290 0.290 0.290 0.290 Southern Company BARRY 3_B_5 0.380 0.380 0.380 0.380 Southern Company Barry 3_G_A1 0.013 0.013 0.013 0.013 Southern Company Barry 3_G_A1CT 0.013 0.013 0.013 0.013 Southern Company Barry 3_G_A1ST 0.013 0.013 0.013 0.013 Southern Company Barry 3_G_A2C1 0.013 0.013 0.013 0.013 Southern Company Barry 3_G_A2C2 0.013 0.013 0.013 0 .013 Southern Company Barry 3_G_A2ST 0.013 0.013 0.013 0.013 Southern Company W S LEE 3264_B_1 0.393 0.393 0.250 0.250 NC

-WV

- SC W S LEE 3264_B_2 0.415 0.415 0.250 0.250 NC

-WV

- SC W S Lee 3264_G_4 0.320 0.320 0.320 0.320 SC W S Lee 3264_G_5 0.320 0.320 0.320 0.320 SC W S Lee 3264_G_6 0.320 0.320 0.320 0.320 SC MCMEEKIN 3287_B_MC 0.350 0.350 0.350 0.350 SC**Plant Name Unique ID**  **Mode1 Rate**  ****** **(VISTAS) Mode2** 

**Rate** ****** **(VISTAS) Mode3** 

**Rate** ****** **(VISTAS) Mode4** 

**Rate** ****** **(VISTAS) Data Source** * M1
MCMEEKIN 3287_B_MC M2 0.350 0.350 0.350 0.350 SC MT STORM 3954_B_3 0.604 0.060 0.604 0.060 NC

-WV

- SC JAMES H MILLER JR 6002_B_1 0.275 0.060 0.275 0.060 Southern Company JAMES H MILLER JR 6002_B_2 0.247 0.060 0.247 0.060 Southern Company JAMES H MILLER JR 6002_B_3 0.306 0.070 0.306 0.070 Southern Company JAMES H MILLER JR 6002_B_4 0.275 0.070 0.275 0.070 Southern Company PLEASANTS 6004_B_1 0.302 0.060 0.302 0.060 NC

-WV

- SC PLEASANTS 6004_B_2 0.335 0.060 0.335 0.060 NC

-WV

- SC WANSLEY 6052_B_1 0.405 0.070 0.405 0.070 Southern Company WANSLEY 6052_B_2 0.390 0.070 0.390 0.070 Southern Company Wa nsley 6052_G_5A 0.880 0.880 0.880 0.880 Southern Compan y VICTOR J DANIEL JR. 6073_B_1 0.310 0.310 0.310 0.310 Southern Company VICTOR J DANIEL JR. 6073_B_2 0.350 0.350 0.350 0.350 Southern Company Victor J Daniel Jr 6073_G_3 0.013 0.013 0.013 0.013 Southern Company

Victor J Daniel Jr 6073_G_3C T 0.013 0.013 0.013 0.013 Southern Company

Victor J Daniel Jr 6073_G_3S T 0.013 0.013 0.013 0.013 Southern Company Victor J Daniel Jr 6073_G_4 0.013 0.013 0.013 0.013 Southern Company

Victor J Daniel Jr 6073_G_4C T 0.013 0.013 0.013 0.013 Southern Company

Victor J Da niel Jr 6073_G_4S T 0.013 0.013 0.013 0.013 Southern Company MCINTOSH 6124_B_1 0.613 0.613 0.410 0.410 Southern Company

McIntosh 6124_G_CT 1 0.090 0.090 0.090 0.090 Southern Company

McIntosh 6124_G_CT 2 0.090 0.090 0.090 0.090 Southern Company

McIntosh 61 24_G_CT 3 0.090 0.090 0.090 0.090 Southern Company

McIntosh 6124_G_CT 4 0.090 0.090 0.090 0.090 Southern Company

McIntosh 6124_G_CT 5 0.090 0.090 0.090 0.090 Southern Company

McIntosh 6124_G_CT 6 0.090 0.090 0.090 0.090 Southern Company

McIntosh 6124_G_CT 7 0.090 0.090 0.090 0.090 Southern Company

McIntosh 6124_G_CT 8 0.090 0.090 0.090 0.090 Southern Company WI NYAH 6249_B_1 0.100 0.100 0.100 0.100 SC WI NYAH 6249_B_2 0.120 0.120 0.120 0.120 SC WI NYAH 6249_B_3 0.120 0.120 0.120 0.120 SC WI NYAH 6249_B_4 0.1 20 0.120 0.120 0.120 SC SCHERER 6257_B_1 0.450 0.450 0.150 0.150 Southern Company SCHERER 6257_B_2 0.450 0.450 0.150 0.150 Southern Company SCHERER 6257_B_3 0.300 0.300 0.150 0.150 Southern Company SCHERER 6257_B_4 0.300 0.300 0.150 0.150 Southern Comp any Wi lson 6258_G_5A 0.880 0.880 0.880 0.880 Southern Company Wi lson 6258_G_5B 0.880 0.880 0.880 0.880 Southern Company Wi lson 6258_G_5C 0.880 0.880 0.880 0.880 Southern Company Wi lson 6258_G_5D 0.880 0.880 0.880 0.880 Southern Company Wi lson 6258_G_5 E 0.880 0.880 0.880 0.880 Southern Company Wi lson 6258_G_5F 0.880 0.880 0.880 0.880 Southern Company Wi lson 6258_G_IC1 0.880 0.880 0.880 0.880 Southern Company CRIST 641_B_2 0.280 0.280 0.280 0.280 Southern Company CRIST 641_B_3 0.280 0.280 0.280 0.280 Southern Company CRIST 641_B_4 0.400 0.400 0.240 0.240 Southern Company**Plant Name Unique ID**  **Mode1 Rate**  ****** **(VISTAS) Mode2** 

**Rate** ****** **(VISTAS) Mode3** 

**Rate** ****** **(VISTAS) Mode4** 

**Rate** ****** **(VISTAS) Data Source** * CRIST 641_B_5 0.400 0.400 0.240 0.240 Southern Company CRIST 641_B_7 0.482 0.060 0.482 0.060 Southern Company SCHOLZ 642_B_1 0.540 0.540 0.320 0.320 Southern Company SCHOLZ 642_B_2 0.570 0.570 0.320 0.320 Southern Company SM ITH 643_B_1 0.490 0.490 0.240 0.240 Southern Company SM ITH 643_B_2 0.410 0.410 0.410 0.410 Southern Company Lansing Smith 643_G_CT1 0.880 0.880 0.880 0.880 Southern Company GADSDEN 7_B_1 0.544 0.544 0.544 0 .544 Southern Company GADSDEN 7_B_2 0.544 0.544 0.544 0.544 Southern Company Atkinson 700_G_5A 0.320 0.320 0.320 0.320 Southern Company Atkinson 700_G_5B 0.320 0.320 0.320 0.320 Southern Company
BOWE N 703_B_1BL R 0.405 0.070 0.405 0.070 Southern Company
BOWE N 703_B_2BL R 0.405 0.070 0.405 0.070 Southern Company
BOWE N 703_B_3BL R 0.409 0.070 0.409 0.070 Southern Company
BOWE N 703_B_4BL R 0.419 0.070 0.419 0.070 Southern Company Bowen 703_G_6 0.880 0.880 0.880 0.880 Southern Company HAMMOND 708_B_1 0.800 0.800 0.410 0.410 Southern Company HAMMOND 708_B_2 0.800 0.800 0.410 0.410 Southern Company HAMMOND 708_B_3 0.800 0.800 0.410 0.410 Southern Company HAMMOND 708_B_4 0.404 0.070 0.404 0.070 Southern Company HARLLEE BRANCH 709_B_1 0.800 0.800 0.519 0.51 9 Southern Company HARLLEE BRANCH 709_B_2 0.800 0.800 0.374 0.374 Southern Company HARLLEE BRANCH 709_B_3 0.800 0.800 0.381 0.381 Southern Company HARLLEE BRANCH 709_B_4 0.800 0.800 0.381 0.381 Southern Company JACK MCDONOUGH 710_B_MB1 0.450 0.450 0.23 0 0.230 Southern Company JACK MCDONOUGH 710_B_MB2 0.450 0.450 0.230 0.230 Southern Company Jack McDonough 710_G_3A 0.320 0.320 0.320 0.320 Southern Company Jack McDonough 710_G_3B 0.320 0.320 0.320 0.320 Southern Company MCMANUS 715_B_1 0.310 0.310 0.3 10 0.310 Southern Company MCMANUS 715_B_2 0.310 0.310 0.310 0.310 Southern Company Mc Manus 715_G_3A 0.880 0.880 0.880 0.880 Southern Company Mc Manus 715_G_3B 0.880 0.880 0.880 0.880 Southern Company Mc Manus 715_G_3C 0.880 0.880 0.880 0.880 Southern Com pany Mc Manus 715_G_4A 0.880 0.880 0.880 0.880 Southern Company Mc Manus 715_G_4B 0.880 0.880 0.880 0.880 Southern Company Mc Manus 715_G_4C 0.880 0.880 0.880 0.880 Southern Company Mc Manus 715_G_4D 0.880 0.880 0.880 0.880 Southern Company Mc Manus 715_G_4E 0.880 0.880 0.880 0.880 Southern Company Mc Manus 715_G_4F 0.880 0.880 0.880 0.880 Southern Company Mc Manus 715_G_IC1 3.200 3.200 3.200 3.200 Southern Company MI TCHELL 727_B_3 0.625 0.625 0.625 0.625 Southern Company Mitchell 727_G_4A 0.880 0.880 0.8 80 0.880 Southern Company Mitchell 727_G_4B 0.880 0.880 0.880 0.880 Southern Company Mitchell 727_G_4C 0.880 0.880 0.880 0.880 Southern Company * Data Source shows the name s of sheets in NEEDS

- NODA

-VISTAS

-Aug18Rev.xls , provided by Gregory Stella, VISTAS Technical Advisor for Emissions Inventories. “SC” reflects the spreadsheet CopyofSCIPMdata.xls. Rate changes include VISTAS interpretation of stakeholder submitted data.


### ** Mode 1 Rate ( Uncontrolled Base Rate )

– This emission rate reflects current confi guration of combustion controls. If a post combustion NO x 

### control such as a SCR or a SNCR exists, it is assumed that it is not operating. Mode 2 Rate ( Controlled Base Rate )

– This emission rate reflects current configuration of combustion controls . If a post combustion NO x 

### control such as a SCR or a SNCR exists, it is assumed that it is operating.

### Mode 3 Rate ( Uncontrolled Policy Rate )

– This emission rate reflects a state of the art configuration of

com bustion controls. If a post combustion NO x 

### control suc h as a SCR or a SNCR exists, it is assumed that it is not operating. Mode 4 Rate ( Controlled Policy Rate )

– This emission rate reflects a state of the art configuration of com bustion controls. If a post combustion NO x 

### control such as a SCR or a SNCR exists , it is assumed that it is operating. For more details on the development of these rates please refer to 

## http://www.epa.gov/airmarkets/epa

-ipm/section3powsysop.pdf**Table A** **3 Chang**  **es made to SO**  **2 Scrubber**  **Installations on Existing Units**

**Plant Name Unique ID**  **Wet/Dry Scrubber**  **(NEEDS NODA) Wet/Dry** **Scrubber (VISTAS)**  **Data Source***
NORTH BRANCH POW ER STATION 7537_B_1A Dry Scrubber

- NC

-WV

- SC
NORTH BRANCH POW ER STATION 7537_B_1B Dry Scrubbe r - NC

-WV

- SC Morgantown Energy Facility 10743_G_GEN1 Dry Scrubber

- NC

-WV

- SC * Data Source shows the name of sheets in NEEDS

- NODA

-VISTAS

-Aug18Rev.xls , provided by Gregory Stella, VISTAS Technical Advisor for Emissions Inventories.**Table A** **4 Changes ma**  **de to SO**  **2 Emission**  **Rate Limits (lbs/MMBtu)**

**Plant Name Unique ID**  **SO 2**  **Rate (NEEDS NODA)**  **SO 2**  **Rate (VISTAS) Data Source** *

GREENE COUNTY 10_B_1 4.000 1.197 Southern Company GREENE COUNTY 10_B_2 4.000 1.197 Southern Company EATON 2046_B_1 4.800 0.001 Southern Company EATON 2046_B_2 4.800 0.001 Southern Company EATON 2046_B_3 4.800 0.001 Southern Company SW EATT 2048_B_1 4.800 0.001 Southern Company SW EATT 2048_B_2 4.800 0.001 Southern Company JACK WATSON 2049_B_1 4.800 0.001 Southern Company JACK WATSON 2049_B_2 4.800 0.001 Southern Company JACK WATSON 2049_B_3 4.800 0.001 Southern Com pany JACK WATSON 2049_B_4 4.800 0.885 Southern Company JACK WATSON 2049_B_5 4.800 0.885 Southern Company E C GASTON 26_B_1 3.800 1.667 Southern Company E C GASTON 26_B_2 3.800 1.667 Southern Company E C GASTON 26_B_3 3.800 1.667 Southern Company E C GASTON 26_B_4 3.800 1.667 Southern Company E C GASTON 26_B_5 3.800 1.667 Southern Company BUCK 2720_B_5 2.300 1.630 NC

-WV

- SC BUCK 2720_B_6 2.300 1.630 NC

-WV

- SC BUCK 2720_B_7 2.300 1.630 NC

-WV

- SC BUCK 2720_B_8 2.300 1.630 NC

-WV

- SC BUCK 2720_B_9 2.300 1.630 NC

-WV

- SC CLIFFSIDE 2721_B_1 2.300 2.200 NC

-WV

- SC CLIFFSIDE 2721_B_2 2.300 2.200 NC

-WV

- SC CLIFFSIDE 2721_B_3 2.300 2 .200 NC

-WV

- SC CLIFFSIDE 2721_B_4 2.300 2.200 NC

-WV

- SC CLIFFSIDE 2721_B_5 2.300 2.200 NC

-WV

- SC DAN RIVER 2723_B_1 2.300 1.810 NC

-WV

- SC DAN RIVER 2723_B_2 2.300 1.810 NC

-WV

- SC DAN RIVER 2723_B_3 2.300 1.810 NC

-WV

- SC BARRY 3_B_1 1.800 1.197 Southern Company BARRY 3_B_2 1.800 1.197 Southern Company BARRY 3_B_3 1.800 1.197 Southern Company BARRY 3_B_4 1.800 1.197 Southern C ompany BARRY 3_B_5 1.800 1.197 Southern Company JAMES H MILLER JR 6002_B_1 1.800 0.795 Southern Company JAMES H MILLER JR 6002_B_2 1.80 0 0.795 Southern Company JAMES H MILLER JR 6002_B_3 1.800 0.795 Southern Company JAMES H MILLER JR 6002_B_4 1.800 0.795 Southern Company VICTOR J DANIEL JR. 6073_B_1 4.800 0.885 Southern Company VICTOR J DANIEL JR. 6073_B_2 4.800 0.885 Southern Company SCHERER 6257_B_1 1.200 0.796 Southern Company SCHERER 6257_B_2 1.200 0.796 Southern Company SCHERER 6257_B_3 1.200 0.796 Southern Company SCHERER 6257_B_4 1.200 0.796 Southern Company CRIST 641_B_2 0.740 0.001 Southern Company**Plant Name Unique ID**  **SO 2**  **Rate (NEEDS NODA)**  **SO 2**  **Rate (VISTAS) Data Source** *

CRIST 641_B_3 0.740 0.001 Southern Company CRIST 641_B_4 5.9 00 1.197 Southern Company CRIST 641_B_5 5.900 1.197 Southern Company CRIST 641_B_6 5.900 1.197 Southern Company CRIST 641_B_7 5.900 1.197 Southern Company SCHOLZ 642_B_1 6.170 1.200 Southern Company SCHOLZ 642_B_2 6.170 1.200 Southern Company SM ITH 643_B_1 6.170 1.197 Southern Company SM ITH 643_B_2 6.170 1.197 Southern Company GADSDEN 7_B_1 4.000 2.500 Southern Company GADSDEN 7_B_2 4.000 2.500 Southern Company BOWE N 703_B_1BLR 4.580 1.667 Southern Company HAMMOND 708_B_1 4.580 1.667 Southern Company HAMMOND 708_B_2 4.580 1.667 Southern Company HAMMOND 708_B_3 4.580 1.667 Southern Company HAMMOND 708_B_4 4.580 1.667 Southern Company HARLLEE BRA NCH 709_B_1 4.580 1.667 Southern Company HARLLEE BRANCH 709_B_2 4.580 1.667 Southern Company HARLLEE BRANCH 709_B_3 4.580 1.66 7 Southern Company HARLLEE BRANCH 709_B_4 4.580 1.667 Southern Company JACK MCDONOUGH 710_B_MB1 4.580 1.667 Southern Company JACK MCDONOUGH 710_B_MB2 4.580 1.667 Southern Company MCMANUS 715_B_1 3.159 2.620 Southern Company MCMANUS 715_B_2 3.159 2.620 Southern Company MI TCHELL 727_B_3 4.580 2.500 Southern Company YATES 728_B_Y2BR 4.580 1.667 Southern Company YATES 728_B_Y3BR 4.580 1.667 Southern Company YATES 7 28_B_Y4BR 4.580 1.667 Southern Company YATES 728_B_Y5BR 4.580 1.667 Southern Company KRAFT 733_B_1 4.580 1.270 Southern Compa ny KRAFT 733_B_2 4.580 1.270 Southern Company KRAFT 733_B_3 4.580 1.270 Southern Company KRAFT 733_B_4 0.800 0.001 Southern Company RIVERSIDE 734_B_11 2.632 0.001 Southern Company RIVERSIDE 734_B_12 3.159 0.001 Southern Company RIVERSIDE 734_B_4 2.632 0.001 Southern Company RIVERSIDE 734_B_5 2.632 0.001 Southern Company RIVERSIDE 734_B_6 2.632 0.001 Southern Company GORGAS 8_B_10 4.000 1.667 Southern Company GORGAS 8_B_6 4.000 2.500 Southern Company GORGAS 8_B_7 4.000 2.500 Southern Company GORGAS 8_B_8 4.000 1.667 Southern Company GORGAS 8_B_9 4.000 1.667 Southern Company

 Data Source shows the names of sheets in NEEDS

- NODA

-VISTAS

-Aug18Rev.xls, provided by Gregory Stella, VISTAS Technical Advisor for Emissions Inventories.**Table A** **5 Changes made to**  **Particulate Matter (PM) Control Installations on Existing Units** 

**Plant Name Unique ID**  **PM Control (NEEDS NODA) PM Control (VISTAS)**  **Data Sources *** G G ALLEN 2718_B_3 Hot

-side ESP Cold

-side ESP NC

-WV

- SC G G ALLEN 2718_B_5 Hot

-side ESP Cold

-side ESP NC

-WV

- SC WE STON 4078_B_3 Hot

-side ESP + Fabric Filter Fabric Filter Wi sconsin * Data Sources shows the name of sheets in NEEDS

- NODA

-VISTAS

-Aug18Rev.xls , provided by Gregory Stella, VISTAS Technical Advisor for Emissions Inventories.**Table A** **6 Changes made to**  **Summer Net**  **Dependable Capacity (MW)** 

**Plant Name Unique ID**  **Capacity (NEEDS NODA)**  **Capacity**

**(VISTAS) Data Source** * VACA_SC_Combined Cycle 077_C_077 1317 807 SC CRIST 641_B_1 24 0 ** Southern Company Lansing Smith A274_G_A274 500 530 Southern Company Atkinson 700_G_5A 32 15.3 Southern Company Atkinson 700_G_5B 32 15.3 Southern Company Dahlberg 7709_G_10 75 80 Southern Company Dahlberg 7709_G_9 75 80 Southern Company FRANKLIN A7840_G_A331 570 63 0 Southern Company Mill Creek A294_G_A294 320 326.8 NC

-WV

- SC Mill Creek A295_G_A295 240 245.1 NC

-WV

- SC Mill Creek A296_G_A296 80 81.7 NC

-WV

- SC SCE&G Hardeeville 3286_C_2 170 SC SCE&G Hardeeville 3286_C_3 170 SC SCE&G Hardeeville 3286_C_4 170 SC C ross 3 130_C_3 660 SC * Data Source shows the name of sheets in NEEDS

- NODA

-VISTAS

-Aug18Rev.xls , provided by Gregory Stella, VISTAS Technical Advisor for Emissions Inventories. “SC” reflects the spreadsheet CopyofSCIPMdata.xls. ** Zero capacity denotes t hat the unit was retired in 2002.**Table A** **7 Changes made to**  **Heat Rate (Btu/kWh)** 

**Plant Name Unique ID**  **ORIS Code BGCI**  **Unit ID Heat Rate**  **(NEEDS NODA) Heat Rate**  **(VISTAS) Data Source** *

ALLEN S KING 1915_B_1 1915 B 1 8879 9229 Minnesota * Data Source shows the name of sheets in NEEDS

- NODA

-VISTAS

-Aug18Rev.xls , provided by Gregory Stella, VISTAS Technical Advisor for Emissions Inventories.**Table A** **8 Changes made to**  **Unit ID Plant Name**  **Unique ID ORIS Code**  **BGCI Unit ID (NEEDS**  **NODA) Unit ID** 

**(VISTAS) Data Source** *

Tal bot County Energy A397_G_A397 7916 G 397 1 Oglethorpe Talbot County Energy A398_G_A398 7916 G 398 2 Oglethorpe Talbot County Energy A399_G_A399 7916 G 399 3

-4 Oglethorpe Talbot County Energy A400_G_A400 7916 G 400 5

- 6 Oglethorpe Mill Creek A294_G_A294 7981 G 294 1

-4 NC

-WV

- SC Mill Creek A295_G_A295 7981 G 295 5

- 7 NC

-WV

- SC Mill Creek A296_G_A296 7981 G 296 8 NC

-WV

- SC * Data Source shows the name of sheets in NEEDS

- NODA

-VISTAS

-Aug18Rev.xls , provided by Gregory Stella, VISTAS Technical Advisor for Emissi ons Inventories.**Table A9 Duke and Progress Energy SO**  **2 Control Plan for North Carolina Clean Smokestacks Rule**  **Unit Technology**  **Operation Date Company**  Asheville 1 Scrubber 2005 Progress Energy Asheville 2 Scrubber 2006 Progress Energy Cape Fear 5 Scrubb er 2012 Progress Energy Cape Fear 6 Scrubber 2011 Progress Energy Ma yo 1 Scrubber 2008 Progress Energy Roxboro 1 Scrubber 2009 Progress Energy Roxboro 2 Scrubber 2007 Progress Energy Roxboro 3 Scrubber 2007 Progress Energy Roxboro 4 Scrubber 2007 Pro gress Energy Sutton 3 Scrubber 2012 Progress Energy Allen 1 Scrubber 2011 Duke Power Allen 2 Scrubber 2011 Duke Power Allen 3 Scrubber 2011 Duke Power Allen 4 Scrubber 2012 Duke Power Allen 5 Scrubber 2012 Duke Power Belews Creek 1 Scrubber 2008 Duke Power Belews Creek 2 Scrubber 2008 Duke Power Cliffside 5 Scrubber 2009 Duke Power Marshall 1 Scrubber 2007 Duke Power Marshall 2 Scrubber 2007 Duke Power Marshall 3 Scrubber 2006 Duke Power Marshall 4 Scrubber 2006 Duke Power Source: Gregory Ste lla, VISTAS Technical Advisor for Emissions Inventories.**Table A 10**  **Duke and Progress Energy NO** **x Control Plan for North Carolina Clean Smokestacks Rule**  **Unit Technology**  **Operation Date Company**  Asheville 1 SCR 2009 Progress Energy Lee 2 ROFA 2007 Progress Energy Lee 3 SCR 2010 Progress Energy Sutton 2 ROFA 2006 Progress Energy Allen 1 SNCR 2003 Duke Power Allen 2 SNCR 2007 Duke Power Allen 3 SNCR 2005 Duke Power Allen 4 SNCR 2006 Duke Power Allen 5 SNCR 2008 Duke Power Belews Creek 1 SCR 2003 Duke P ower Belews Creek 2 SCR 2004 Duke Power Buck 3 SNCR 2009 Duke Power Buck 4 SNCR 2008 Duke Power Buck 5 SNCR 2006 Duke Power Buck 6 SNCR 2007 Duke Power Cliffside 1 SNCR 2009 Duke Power Cliffside 2 SNCR 2009 Duke Power Cliffside 3 SNCR 2008 Duke Power Cliffside 4 SNCR 2008 Duke Power Cliffside 5 SCR 2002 Duke Power Dan River 1 SNCR 2009 Duke Power Dan River 2 SNCR 2009 Duke Power Dan River 3 SNCR 2007 Duke Power Marshall 1 SNCR 2007 Duke Power Marshall 2 SNCR 2006 Duke Power Marshall 3 SNCR 2 005 Duke Power Marshall 4 SNCR 2008 Duke Power Riverbend 4 SNCR 2007 Duke Power Riverbend 5 SNCR 2008 Duke Power Riverbend 6 SNCR 2008 Duke Power Riverbend 7 SNCR 2007 Duke Power Source: Gregory Stella, VISTAS Technical Advisor for Emissions Invento ries.**2. Emission Results**

Tables A11 , A12, A13 and A1 4 present the Base Case and the CAIR Case N Ox and S O 2 emissions by state and season in 2009 and 2018 run years.**Table A11 State**  **L evel Base Case NO** **x Emissions by**  **Season (Thousand Tons)** 

**NO x**  **Emissio n**  **(Base Case) Winter**  **Summer 2009**  **2018 2009**  **2018 C** **AIR Affected States**  Alabama 97.93 100.12 34.06 34.89 Arkansas 23.92 24.68 19.73 19.96 District Of Columbia 0.00 0.03 0.00 0.05 Delaware 6.09 7.30 2.78 3.42 Florida 80.78 86.48 67.84 72.61 Geo rgia 92.95 94.65 38.95 34.29 Iowa 39.67 47.64 30.90 36.59 Illinois 101.87 119.29 27.74 37.91 Indiana 176.21 183.22 61.12 61.74 Kansas 46.35 50.19 36.58 39.32 Kentucky 131.21 132.43 47.76 49.80 Louisiana 27.55 28.46 22.92 23.26 Massachusetts 9 .80 11.69 5.64 8.74 Maryland 48.93 50.40 9.07 9.88 Michigan 80.77 85.49 35.64 34.26 Minnesota 39.60 44.65 30.21 34.14 Missouri 84.20 86.01 33.32 30.67 Mississippi 20.98 21.97 17.68 18.21 North Carolina 40.99 39.94 25.74 24.73 New Jersey 10.93 13.57 4.76 5.79 New York 31.75 30.74 18.00 18.79 Ohio 221.12 234.60 50.99 47.99 Pennsylvania 139.63 144.99 58.57 54.52 South Carolina 33.44 35.53 17.06 19.70 Tennessee 88.26 88.30 18.75 24.15 Texas 91.74 91.77 92.76 102.30 Virginia 44.06 37. 63 21.15 19.35 Wi sconsin 44.08 44.81 35.52 35.59 West Virginia 146.12 147.16 27.86 23.37 Total 2 , 000.92 2 , 083.74 893.12 926.01 **Non C AIR**  **States** Arizona 43.51 45.10 35.05 35.71 California 21.46 18.71 13.13 12.91 Colorado 38.20 39.43 30.04 30.90 Connecticut 3.56 4.49 2.63 2.81 Idaho 0.85 0.76 0.65 0.34 Maine 1.03 1.04 0.81 0.82 Montana 21.40 21.42 16.92 17.01 North Dakota 39.97 39.97 31.67 31.67 Nebraska 27.26 27.49 21.75 21.96 New Hampshire 1.33 1.65 0.74 1.18 New Mexico 40.80 40. 90 32.70 32.97 Nevada 18.94 21.12 10.94 16.55 Oklahoma 41.56 41.86 36.02 38.41**NO x**  **Emissio n**  **(Base Case) Winter**  **Summer 2009**  **2018 2009**  **2018** Oregon 7.54 7.79 5.89 6.07 Rhode Island 0.29 0.32 0.23 0.30 South Dakota 8.10 8.11 6.44 6.44 Utah 33.87 33.83 26.88 26.43 Vermont 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.02 Washington 16.48 14.94 12.19 11.79 Wyoming 45.24 45.24 35.93 35.93 Total 411.39 414.19 320.62 330.23 **National Total** 2 , 412.31 2 , 497.93 1 , 213.74 1 , 256.23**Table A1 2**  **State Level Base Case SO 2**  **Emissions by Season**  **(Thousand Tons)**

**SO 2**  **Emission (Base Case)**  **Winter Sum**  **mer 2009**  **2018 2009**  **2018 C** **AIR Affected States**  Alabama 279.95 209.76 185.64 165.55 Arkansas 45.95 45.95 36.49 36.49 District Of Columbia 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Delaware 22.94 26.88 15.11 17.45 Florida 122.20 120.04 97.19 95.45 Georgia 328.97 310. 23 253.11 243.79 Iowa 86.91 101.85 66.32 78.32 Illinois 215.50 242.21 130.41 177.13 Indiana 434.76 300.46 291.49 228.01 Kansas 45.06 47.83 36.59 37.99 Kentucky 279.82 241.21 203.42 188.21 Louisiana 55.29 55.29 43.92 43.92 Massachusetts 9.55 1 0.21 2.21 6.86 Maryland 179.99 187.19 129.98 143.59 Michigan 219.48 227.46 160.86 177.17 Minnesota 52.19 53.20 39.47 39.43 Missouri 153.41 158.24 110.96 119.58 Mississippi 47.72 47.72 37.90 37.90 North Carolina 109.66 80.15 72.83 53.68 New Je rsey 31.74 19.49 22.99 14.08 New York 100.81 89.14 48.13 53.50 Ohio 860.12 647.74 584.09 460.62 Pennsylvania 525.90 503.94 359.82 361.58 South Carolina 93.19 99.82 70.44 79.21 Tennessee 274.69 184.91 161.76 138.75 Texas 221.74 231.04 184.26 188 .83 Virginia 133.86 103.85 87.09 77.75 Wi sconsin 87.01 85.93 69.31 67.53 West Virginia 349.02 274.96 249.54 208.00 Total 5 , 367.45 4 , 706.71 3 , 751.31 3 , 540.37 **Non C AIR**  **States** Arizona 33.81 28.38 26.85 22.54 California 3.64 3.64 2.88 2.88 Colorado 51.13 51.13 40.59 40.61 Connecticut 3.62 3.62 2.85 2.85 Idaho 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 Maine 3.01 3.01 2.42 2.42 Montana 11.32 12.90 8.95 10.28 North Dakota 74.59 74.54 58.98 58.94 Nebraska 39.52 39.92 31.48 31.63 New Hampshire 5.20 4.62 2.26 2.98 New Mexico 29.49 29.49 23.42 23.42 Nevada 12.09 13.32 6.14 10.25 Oklahoma 65.56 65.56 52.08 52.08**SO 2**  **Emission (Base Case)**  **Winter Sum**  **mer 2009**  **2018 2009**  **2018** Oregon 5.67 5.67 4.50 4.50 Rhode Island 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 South Dakota 6.74 6.74 5.35 5.35 Utah 29.65 20.86 23.43 15.04 Vermont 0.02 0. 02 0.01 0.01 Washington 6.63 6.65 5.15 5.17 Wyoming 41.73 28.93 33.14 22.98 Total 423.46 399.05 330.53 313.96 **National Total** 5 , 790.90 5 , 105.76 4 , 081.84 3 , 854.33**Table A1 3**  **State L** **evel CAIR Case NO x**  **Emissions by Season**  **(Thousand Tons)**

**NO x**  **Emission (CAIR Case)**  **Winter Summer**  **2009 2018**  **2009 2018**  **C AIR**  **Affected States** Alabama 96.01 21.06 36.32 18.89 Arkansas 24.01 17.81 19.73 14.41 District Of Columbia 0.00 0.05 0.02 0.04 Delaware 4.92 3.86 0.92 3.01 Florida 80.05 30.71 67.84 28.83 Georgia 88.13 33.33 31.30 32.22 Iowa 39.36 23.69 30.64 16.83 Illinois 108.01 38.49 33.62 30.78 Indiana 174.47 49.88 64.17 37.28 Kansas 46.51 17.41 36.48 14.84 Kentucky 129.41 36.28 47.90 28.43 Louisiana 27.80 16.91 22.92 14.01 Massachusetts 10.03 8. 38 6.43 6.23 Maryland 46.83 7.76 11.25 6.58 Michigan 80.25 39.64 35.94 30.88 Minnesota 40.35 21.80 30.79 17.02 Missouri 82.31 50.25 36.39 27.68 Mississippi 20.98 5.68 17.78 5.11 North Carolina 40.69 33.56 26.50 26.49 New Jersey 11.08 6.73 4.2 7 5.64 New York 25.18 22.18 19.25 17.99 Ohio 214.10 47.83 43.53 34.32 Pennsylvania 129.93 42.08 54.03 33.21 South Carolina 34.01 20.39 16.20 16.00 Tennessee 87.13 15.77 17.44 16.68 Texas 91.58 82.32 92.49 90.41 Virginia 39.54 23.15 23.53 17.1 5 Wi sconsin 41.88 21.25 33.52 16.56 West Virginia 145.07 24.52 29.50 17.70 Total 1 , 959.60 762.79 890.73 625.24 **Non C AIR**  **States** Arizona 43.50 45.11 35.04 35.68 California 20.40 18.52 13.00 12.91 Colorado 38.14 39.55 30.05 30.88 Connecticut 3. 90 5.06 3.00 3.50 Idaho 0.85 0.78 0.65 0.34 Maine 1.03 1.08 0.76 0.85 Montana 21.40 21.42 16.98 17.01 North Dakota 38.73 39.97 29.27 31.76 Nebraska 27.43 27.52 21.83 22.08 New Hampshire 0.97 1.71 0.75 1.35 New Mexico 40.80 40.92 32.70 32.98 Nevada 19.96 22.36 11.06 17.60 Oklahoma 41.64 42.42 36.06 40.57**NO x**  **Emission (CAIR Case)**  **Winter Summer**  **2009 2018**  **2009 2018**  Oregon 7.54 7.79 5.89 6.07 Rhode Island 0.29 0.34 0.21 0.30 South Dakota 8.10 8.11 6.44 6.45 Utah 33.87 33.83 26.86 26.43 Vermont 0.01 0.02 0.01 0.02 Washington 16.48 14.94 12.1 9 11.78 Wyoming 45.24 45.24 35.93 35.93 Total 410.29 416.69 318.68 334.51 **National Total** 2 , 369.89 1 , 179.48 1 , 209.41 959.75**Table A14 State**  **L evel CAIR Case SO**  **2 Emissions by**  **Season (Thousand Tons)** 

**SO 2**  **Emission (CAIR Case)**  **Winter Summer**  **2009 2018**  **20 09**  **2018 C** **AIR Affected States**  Alabama 190.85 125.61 124.00 100.91 Arkansas 45.95 45.95 36.49 36.49 District Of Columbia 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Delaware 16.78 9.84 5.14 7.09 Florida 110.87 70.51 89.28 56.09 Georgia 244.73 117.05 149.70 104.56 Iowa 89.51 97.92 68.86 71.77 Illinois 141.81 149.61 93.99 113.51 Indiana 200.81 182.52 140.39 139.08 Kansas 44.63 40.60 35.76 32.84 Kentucky 197.05 127.58 145.63 98.20 Louisiana 34.59 18.80 27.47 14.93 Massachusetts 10.70 9.48 2.93 6.73 Maryland 41.64 14.40 25.23 10.01 Michigan 216.30 221.63 157.75 174.22 Minnesota 45.46 47.48 35.48 35.41 Missouri 148.86 151.22 110.16 118.11 Mississippi 47.72 28.96 37.90 23.00 North Carolina 80.70 41.41 51.49 36.93 New Jersey 19.09 11.35 15.17 8.65 New York 57.16 26.70 37.60 20.71 Ohio 259.36 122.94 144.93 88.31 Pennsylvania 128.67 74.04 77.16 57.49 South Carolina 85.48 85.74 58.09 66.81 Tennessee 168.50 53.32 111.44 50.29 Texas 216.76 195.36 178.90 159.08 Virginia 89.83 66.57 51.09 49.68 Wi sconsin 83.88 78.63 66.32 62.03 West Virginia 154.15 64.86 92.70 47.07 Total 3 , 171.82 2 , 280.08 2 , 171.02 1 , 789.98 **Non C AIR**  **States** Arizona 33.81 28.38 26.85 22.54 California 3.64 3.64 2.88 2.88 Colorado 50.79 51.16 40.28 40.61 Connecticut 3 .62 3.62 2.58 2.85 Idaho 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 Maine 3.01 3.01 2.10 2.42 Montana 11.32 13.00 9.01 10.33 North Dakota 71.08 74.54 54.63 59.20 Nebraska 39.82 39.92 31.63 31.70 New Hampshire 0.92 4.47 0.70 3.52 New Mexico 29.49 29.49 23.42 23.42 Nevada 12.90 14.33 6.23 11.09 Oklahoma 65.56 65.56 52.08 52.08**SO 2**  **Emission (CAIR Case)**  **Winter Summer**  **2009 2018**  **20 09**  **2018** Oregon 5.67 5.67 4.50 4.50 Rhode Island 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 South Dakota 6.74 6.74 5.35 5.35 Utah 29.65 20.86 23.35 15.04 Vermont 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 Washington 6.11 6.65 4.80 5. 17 Wyoming 39.68 28.93 31.52 22.98 Total 413.87 400.02 321.96 315.72 **National Total** 3 , 585.68 2 , 680.10 2 , 492.97 2 , 105.71**3. Generation Results**

Tables A15 and A16 present the generation in the Base Case and the CAIR Case by state and season in 2009 an d 2018 run years.**Table A15 State**  **L evel Base Case Generation by**  **Season (GWh)** 

**Base Case Generation Winter**  **Summer 2009**  **2018 2009**  **2018 C** **AIR Affected States**  Alabama 89,306 107,340 71,273 89,828 Arkansas 27,458 35,937 27,331 29,377 District Of Colum bia

- 70

- 113 Delaware 3,688 4,873 2,754 4,030 Florida 103,348 140,092 91,525 117,000 Georgia 93,099 103,667 73,028 86,929 Iowa 26,718 32,128 20,016 23,757 Illinois 111,860 120,671 79,329 91,331 Indiana 78,544 86,210 57,036 65,667 Kansas 26, 507 27,819 21,332 22,583 Kentucky 61,480 62,605 46,396 48,451 Louisiana 35,891 48,346 35,855 38,090 Massachusetts 31,527 37,098 22,173 27,421 Maryland 31,487 33,118 22,747 26,002 Michigan 61,566 75,353 45,410 54,723 Minnesota 27,529 31,431 21,1 04 23,976 Missouri 51,304 54,766 38,644 42,737 Mississippi 20,631 32,250 24,165 29,593 North Carolina 72,173 77,731 54,210 58,315 New Jersey 31,669 38,312 26,922 29,698 New York 86,175 90,403 66,311 69,245 Ohio 98,345 111,448 69,610 80,018 Pe nnsylvania 129,591 140,974 93,686 101,509 South Carolina 57,536 66,909 47,731 54,364 Tennessee 57,630 59,073 40,526 43,453 Texas 175,132 192,596 176,889 210,649 Virginia 44,517 55,805 34,038 42,987 Wi sconsin 37,353 40,072 29,408 31,217 West Virginia 60,407 61,029 45,922 47,604 Total 1,732,468 1,968,124 1,385,371 1,590,666 **Non C AIR**  **States** Arizona 68,796 84,020 58,556 66,427 California 153,862 193,482 115,891 148,755 Colorado 24,277 29,820 17,665 22,200 Connecticut 18,145 20,347 12,832 13,661 Idaho 6,535 6,859 5,123 4,814 Maine 4,510 4,554 3,259 3,284 Montana 14,651 15,017 11,972 12,277 North Dakota 15,999 15,999 12,683 12,688 Nebraska 17,523 17,985 14,926 15,717 New Hampshire 19,201 18,995 14,611 14,436 New Mexico 16,508 1 7,492 13,485 14,417 Nevada 21,432 24,996 15,590 20,097 Oklahoma 42,002 45,145 36,058 40,794**Base Case Generation Winter**  **Summer 2009**  **2018 2009**  **2018** Oregon 34,193 37,710 25,959 28,498 Rhode Island 2,822 3,045 1,865 2,474 South Dakota 5,103 5,116 4,200 4,210 Utah 18,558 18,525 14,807 14,561 Vermont 3,328 3,284 2,102 1,985 Washington 61,086 64,342 43,874 47,400 Wyoming 24,650 24,627 19,574 19,555 Total 573,182 651,360 445,030 508,249 **National Total** 2,305,650 2,619,484 1,830,401 2,098,915**Table A16 State**  **L evel CAIR Case Generation**  **by Season**  **(GWh)**

**CAIR Case Generation Winter**  **Summer 2009**  **2018 2009**  **2018 CAIR**  **Affected States** Alabama 94,570 114,813 74,254 91,185 Arkansas 28,520 38,336 27,342 30,538 District Of Columbia

- 164 27 140 Delaware 4,109 4,888 1,395 3,816 Florida 103,047 134,673 91,525 114,079 Georgia 90,975 106,074 68,713 87,944 Iowa 26,654 32,155 20,160 22,069 Illinois 113,576 118,442 83,009 91,406 Indiana 77,812 85,811 59,219 64,105 Kansas 26,553 25,090 21,262 21,729 Kentucky 60,623 61,425 45,949 47, 837 Louisiana 39,178 47,708 35,792 37,296 Massachusetts 32,086 35,865 22,315 26,056 Maryland 30,432 33,919 22,226 26,140 Michigan 61,409 77,361 45,712 55,464 Minnesota 28,657 31,549 22,190 24,725 Missouri 50,909 54,005 38,878 43,636 Mississip pi 20,654 38,386 26,053 31,804 North Carolina 72,011 76,972 54,051 59,626 New Jersey 32,728 37,732 26,430 30,620 New York 86,621 90,452 67,306 70,406 Ohio 94,457 109,773 66,893 80,432 Pennsylvania 125,813 135,339 93,940 100,257 South Carolina 5 9,092 67,948 47,929 54,154 Tennessee 57,255 55,011 40,017 42,531 Texas 174,956 188,405 176,614 205,557 Virginia 42,300 55,560 34,556 41,982 Wi sconsin 37,205 41,005 28,850 31,286 West Virginia 59,826 59,948 43,305 46,823 Total 1,732,029 1,958,80 6 1,385,910 1,583,642 **Non C AIR**  **States** Arizona 68,764 84,088 58,527 66,182 California 153,862 193,060 115,905 148,764 Colorado 23,897 29,789 17,750 22,086 Connecticut 17,851 20,146 12,783 13,817 Idaho 6,535 6,907 5,123 4,809 Maine 4,510 5,032 3 ,213 3,605 Montana 14,651 15,018 11,996 12,275 North Dakota 15,380 15,999 11,862 12,738 Nebraska 17,566 18,061 14,947 15,816 New Hampshire 18,921 19,856 14,663 15,201 New Mexico 16,514 17,636 13,485 14,519 Nevada 21,896 25,564 15,641 20,582 O klahoma 42,459 50,227 36,383 45,539**CAIR Case Generation Winter**  **Summer 2009**  **2018 2009**  **2018** Oregon 34,193 37,678 25,959 28,474 Rhode Island 2,822 3,032 1,651 2,410 South Dakota 5,103 5,116 4,200 4,220 Utah 18,558 18,525 14,796 14,561 Vermont 3,328 3,446 2,102 2,096 Washington 61,086 64,281 43,874 47 ,356 Wyoming 24,650 24,627 19,574 19,555 Total 572,547 658,087 444,434 514,605 **National Total** 2,304,577 2,616,893 1,830,343 2,098,247**4**

**. Cost Results** 

Tables A17, A18, A19 and A20 present the fixed operation and maintenance cost (FOM), variable operation and maintenance cost (VOM), fuel cost and the capital cost in the Base Case and the CAIR Case by IPM model region and season in 2009 and 2018 run years respectively.**Table A17 FOM Cost**  **by IPM Model Region**  **(Million 1999$)**

**FOM Cost by**

**Region Base Ca** **se CAIR Case** 

**2009 2018**  **2009 2018**  AZNM 999.8 1,173.9 999.8 1,173.9 CALI 1,399.3 1,767.7 1,397.1 1,767.6 DSNY 554.3 365.1 559.0 386.4 ECAO 3,163.2 3,282.9 3,310.1 3,583.2 ENTG 1,172.8 1,351.0 1,177.5 1,361.8 ERCT 1,905.2 2,084.9 1,905.2 2,097.9 FRCC 1,500.1 1,570.0 1,504.2 1,595.8 LILC 71.1 89.7 79.1 92.5 MACE 1,712.7 1,859.8 1,698.8 1,850.0 MACS 474.3 504.5 503.3 548.3 MACW 843.0 961.8 849.6 989.5 MANO 2,462.9 2,942.4 2,466.9 2,949.6 MAPP 1,282.3 1,352.2 1,276.4 1,347.3 MECS 525 .5 625.8 525.5 631.5 NENG 1,230.3 1,246.7 1,233.3 1,247.1 NW PE 512.5 539.5 518.4 545.3 NYC 145.0 162.1 145.0 167.5 PNW 906.4 988.3 906.4 988.1 RM PA 295.2 305.0 295.5 305.3 SOU 1,490.9 1,674.5 1,510.6 1,777.1 SPPN 477.7 564.3 477.7 566.9 SPP S 651.9 715.0 656.3 722.2 TVA 1,380.2 1,469.9 1,384.2 1,508.4 UPNY 726.7 792.6 713.3 782.1 VACA 2,764.7 3,099.6 2,756.4 3,096.6 WU MS 461.8 494.1 461.8 495.5 **National Total** 29,109.7 31,983.2 29,311.5 32,577.6**Table A18 VOM Cost**  **by IPM Model Regio**  **n (Million 1999$)** 

**VOM Cost by**

**Region Base Case**  **CAIR Case**

**2009 2018**  **2009 2018**  AZNM 301.4 349.7 301.3 349.7 CALI 525.1 677.9 523.7 677.6 DSNY 41.0 34.1 41.4 51.4 ECAO 1,218.5 1,316.6 1,378.1 1,883.4 ENTG 158.6 195.1 170.2 228.0 ERCT 493.4 602. 5 492.9 621.6 FRCC 303.2 404.1 307.8 466.1 LILC 24.9 39.5 24.4 33.6 MACE 140.5 166.4 137.6 174.4 MACS 70.6 83.1 97.8 141.1 MACW 188.1 203.1 226.7 300.4 MANO 313.9 359.5 335.8 408.4 MAPP 306.1 337.8 309.5 353.1 MECS 146.3 181.0 145.8 211.6 NENG 174.5 205.0 176.8 205.3 NW PE 235.2 249.6 236.7 252.7 NYC 12.1 25.5 12.1 30.0 PNW 93.3 126.3 93.3 126.0 RM PA 117.5 128.0 117.2 127.9 SOU 409.5 512.1 431.8 720.1 SPPN 147.0 158.1 147.4 161.5 SPPS 201.2 231.2 204.0 242.3 TVA 286.2 312.0 290.1 400.3 UPNY 81.8 90.4 85.0 91.1 VACA 570.6 679.9 602.2 720.4 WU MS 110.0 138.3 111.4 143.2 **National Total** 6,670.4 7,807.0 7,001.0 9,121.3**Table A19 Fuel Cost**  **by IPM Model Region**  **(Million 1999$)**

**Fuel Cost by**

**Region Base Case**  **CAIR Case**

**2009 2018**  **2009 2018**  AZNM 2,231.5 2,884.8 2,296.0 2,912.2 CALI 3,804.4 5,249.7 3,883.0 5,266.9 DSNY 512.8 531.4 537.3 642.6 ECAO 5,452.7 6,207.7 5,346.3 5,844.2 ENTG 1,700.8 2,398.6 1,817.2 2,388.2 ERCT 4,950.1 5,835.0 5,121.9 5,812.3 FRCC 2,979.2 4,480.9 3,045.0 4,282.9 LILC 400.7 530.3 407.5 454.6 MACE 1,106.4 1,453.7 1,195.5 1,461.6 MACS 528.2 599.7 502.4 599.4 MACW 1,039.5 1,258.4 1,039.9 1,176.8 MANO 2,073.1 2,192.0 2,133.0 2,158.4 MAPP 1,560.0 1,666.6 1,561.8 1,676.2 MECS 1,070.6 1,322.5 1,075.2 1,434.1 NENG 1,868.1 2,291.3 1,915.8 2,297.8 NW PE 679.2 643.8 687.8 659.6 NYC 313.2 459.5 326.0 512.2 PNW 1,078.6 1,326.2 1,126.8 1,333.3 RM PA 429.3 596.2 426.8 595.4 SOU 3,933.6 5,195.6 4,146.3 5,399.1 SPPN 678.0 731.7 683.1 726.5 SPPS 1,908.5 2,197.0 1,952.0 2,287.2 TVA 1,633.0 1,868.4 1,675.8 1,972.9 UPNY 599.3 758.0 655.3 703.8 VACA 3,057.0 3,800.8 3,135.3 3,928.7 WU MS 625.4 748.5 632.9 732.9 **National Total** 46,213.0 57,228.2 47,325.9 57,259.8**Table A20 Capital**  **Cost by**  **IPM Model Region (Million 1999$)** 

**Capital Cost by**

**Region Base Case**  **CAIR Case**

**2009 2018**  **2009 2018**  AZNM 0.0 114.8 0.0 114.8 CALI 375.3 1287.1 454.1 1290.4 DSNY 0.0 0.7 0.0 73.3 ECAO 97.2 226.9 505.9 1164.9 ENTG 3.3 4.4 10.3 36.7 ERCT 0 .9 978.4 0.6 1029.3 FRCC 13.3 455.4 25.2 540.3 LILC 54.0 167.9 62.4 143.9 MACE 4.2 22.1 4.2 33.8 MACS 18.2 134.0 94.7 261.9 MACW 0.0 0.3 80.9 162.8 MANO 2.7 21.6 35.4 71.3 MAPP 52.9 52.9 52.9 68.7 MECS 0.0 212.4 0.0 237.9 NENG 76.3 160.0 87.3 163.9 NW PE 0.0 23.0 0.0 23.0 NYC 0.0 103.9 0.0 137.1 PNW 5.5 183.8 5.5 182.2 RM PA 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 SOU 4.6 412.9 55.5 770.0 SPPN 5.3 28.0 5.3 51.0 SPPS 0.0 142.9 12.2 171.8 TVA 0.0 10.4 11.8 135.2 UPNY 0.0 4.1 11.6 23.2 VACA 232.6 647.5 221.1 667.1 WU MS 10.3 138.8 10.2 149.8 **National Total** 956.6 5 , 534.2 1,747.2 7 , 704.1