## United States

Department of Agriculture Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service April 2013 **Analysis in Support of Certification that the** 

**Rule will not have a Significant Economic Impact on a Substantial Number of Small**  **Entities Proposed**  **Rule APHIS 201**  **3 -**  **0016 RIN 0579**  **- AD81**  **Importation of Fresh**  **Blueberry from Morocco**

Policy & Program Development Policy Analysis & Development

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## Summary This analysis examines the expected economic impact for U.S small entities of a propo sed rule that would allow the importation of fresh blueberry (V accinium corymbosum L.) from Morocco into the continental United States

. The Small Business Administration’ s small

- entity standard for U.S. farms that produce fresh blueberries is annual receipts of not more than $750,000. In 2007 , the average market value of sales b y the 7,516 U.S. farms that produced fresh blueberries was about $53,000, well below the small

- entity

standard. Morocco expects to export 360, 000 pounds of fresh blueberries to the continental United States annually . This quantity is equivalent to about one - tenth of one percent of U.S fresh blueberry suppl y, 2007

- 2011 . Morocco is expected to export fresh blueberries to the continental United States in July

and August. The U.S

. blueberry season i s from April to August . Even though the two season s overlap and most if not all fresh blueberry producers in the United States are small entities , the relatively small quantity expected to be imported from Mo rocco would not
s ignificantl y affect the U.S. market or prices

. This proposed rule, if promulgated, will not have a significant economic impact on a substantial number of small entities.

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## Introduction This analysis provides the basis, as required by the Regulatory

Flexibility

Act, for certification by

the APHIS A dministrator that the proposed rule, if promulgated, will not have a significant economic impact on a substantial number of small entities. APHI S received a request from Morocco to authorize the importation of fresh blueberry (Vaccinium corymbosum L.) into the continental United States. Currently , the regulations in 7 CFR 319.56 prohibit the importation of blueberry fruit from Morocco. This action proposes to allow the importation of blueberries under a s ys tems approach. Inresponse to Morocco’s request, APHIS produced risk anal ys is and risk management document s . Th e latter identifies the risk mitigation measures expected to prevent the introduction of plant pests in the commercial shipments of blueberry . These measures include approved p ostharvest treatments, inspections for pests duri ng growing seasons, and certification that consignments of blueberries meet phy tosanitary requirements. The Regulatory

Flexibility

Act requires agencies to evaluate the potential effects of their proposed and final rules on small business, small organizations and small governmental jurisdictions. Section 603 of the Act requires an agency to prepare an initial regulatory flexibility anal ys is (IRFA) that describes the expected impact of the rule on small entities and a description of any significant alternatives to the proposed rule which accomplish the stated objectives of applicable statutes and which minimize any significant economic impact of the proposed rule on small entities

. Inplace of the IRFA, the head of the agency may certify that a proposed rule will not have a significant economic impact on substantial number of small entities.

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## U.S **Blueberry Production and Trade**  The United States is the largest producer of blueberries, providing 60 percent of the world ’s supply in 2010, followed by Canada (27 percent) and Poland (3 percent). In the United States, the majority

of blueberries are picked from April to August. 1 

### Fresh blueberry production is a gro wing industry ; it expanded by 86 percent between 2007 (about 150 million pounds) and 2011 (about 279 million pounds) (table 1). Per capita consumption has increased from 0 .59 pounds in 2007 to 1.26 pounds in 2011. Table 1. U.S Fresh blueberry production , imports , and exports , 2007

- 2011 , million pounds
Ye ar Pr oduc tion Imp or ts Ex ports Ne t s uppl y 2007 150. 28 77. 37 50. 60 177. 05 0.59 2008 194. 11 114. 89 64. 19 244. 81 0.80 2009 225. 65 133. 28 64. 28 294. 65 0.96 2010 246. 54 169. 24 70. 23 345. 55 1.11 2011 278. 80 192. 54 78. 49 392. 85 1.26 5- yea r av er age 219. 08 137. 46 65. 56 290. 98 0. 94 Sour ce : US DA/ Eco nomi c Re sea rch S ervi ce s tabl e 4 h ttp://usda.mannl ib.c or ne ll. ed u/M an nU sda/vi ewD oc ume ntInf o.do?doc ume ntID= 1765 mi llio n pounds Pe r C apita Co ns umption



### The United States is a ne t importer of fresh blueberries. From 2007 to 2011 , the United States imported 137 million pounds of blueberry per year on average, while exporting 66 million pounds. In2011, the q

uantity of blueberries exported by the United States totaled about 78 milli on pounds , and n et imports totaled about 114 million pounds (table 2). Canada, the prin cipal destination, received about 90 percent of U.S. fresh blueberry exports between 2007 and 2011.

1 USDA/Economic Research S ervice , mo nthly exports data table 33 http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/MannUsda/viewDocumentInfo.do?documentID=1765

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Table 2. U.S fresh b lueberry exports, 200 7
- 2011 , million pounds

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Ave rage 2007- 2011
Wo rl d 50. 60 64. 19 64. 28 70. 23 78. 49 65. 56 Canada 47. 03 59. 88 58. 90 63. 65 69. 97 59. 89 Ja pan 0. 97 2. 06 3. 26 3. 71 5. 74 3. 15 Ho ng Kong 0. 15 0. 29 0. 40 0. 71 0. 78 0. 47 South Kor ea 0. 15 0. 33 0. 29 0. 53 0. 42 0. 34 Un it ed K in gdom 1. 85 1. 18 0. 63 0. 20 0. 36 0. 85 Re sto f the w or ld 0. 45 0. 45 0. 80 1. 44 1. 22 0. 87 Neti mports 26. 77 50. 70 69. 00 99. 01 114. 05 71. 90 Sourc e: U SD A/ Eco nomi c Re se ach Se rv ic es To tal Ex ports off re sh bl ube rri es t abl e 24 http://usda.mannl ib .corne ll. ed u/M annU sda/vi ew Docume ntInfo.do?doc ume ntID =1765 Mi llio n Pounds



### Chile is the leading supplier of blueberries imported by the United States, followed by Canada, Argentina, and Mexico (table 3). Blueberry imports from Chile have boomed in recent ye ars. Blueberries from Chile have a relative l ow tariff and Chile’s production schedule is counter
- seasonal to that of the United States. U.S. imports increased from about 77 million pounds in 2007 to about 193 million pounds in 2011. Table 3. U.S fresh b lueberry imports, 2007

- 2011, million pounds

Ye ar 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Aver age 2007- 2011 Worl d 77. 37 114. 89 133. 28 169. 24 192. 54 137. 46 Chil e 37. 83 61. 90 74. 23 100. 95 122. 71 79. 52 Canada 27. 30 36. 74 41. 09 43. 43 42. 37 38. 18 Arge nti na 11. 50 14. 38 15. 88 20. 56 20. 99 16. 66 Me xic o 0. 07 0. 29 0. 79 2. 10 4. 11 1. 47 Uru guay 0. 27 1. 25 1. 03 1. 76 2. 04 1. 27 New Ze al and 0. 38 0. 32 0. 25 0. 23 0. 17 0. 27 Re st oft he w orl d 0. 03 0. 01 0. 00 0. 21 0. 15 0. 08 Sour ce : US DA /E co nomi c Re sea rch Se rv ic es Total I mports off re sh bl ue be rri es tab le 27 ht tp://usda.mannl ib.c orne ll.edu/M an nU sda/vie wD oc ume ntInfo.do?doc ume ntID= 1765 Mi llio n Pounds

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## Potential Impact on Small Entities Blueberry production is classified within the North American Industry Classification System under Berry

(except Strawberry) Farming (NAICS 111334), for which the Small Business Administration’ s small

- entity standard is annual revenue of not more than $750,000. 2 

### The latest data on the number of farms that produce blueberries are found in the 2007 Census of Agriculture, which reports that the average market value of blueberries sold per farm was about $53,000. 3 

### Clearly , most if not all blueberry producers are sm all entities. Table 4 shows that between 2002 and 2007, the number of farms that harvested blueberries increased from 6,428 to 7,516, and the number of acres increased from about 52,000 to over 60,000. U.S. fresh blueberry production h as significantly in creased over the past years with the increase in the number of farms and harvested acres . Table 4. U.S

. blueberries: Number of farms and area harvested in leading States, 2007 and 2002

State 2007 2002 2007 2002 7, 516 6, 428 60, 353 52, 002 Mi ch ig an 758 590 19, 641 12, 274 Ore gon 713 659 5, 185 3, 887 Washi ngton 475 289 3, 926 289 Flor id a 442 343 2, 376 1, 646 New Yo rk 407 351 1, 097 842 Ge orgi a 343 408 4, 802 4, 451 Mi ssissippi 317 249 2, 209 1, 289 North Carol ina 297 267 5, 323 5, 009 New Jer sey 268 240 7, 605 7, 468 Ala bama 207 196 347 400 Cal ifor ni a 186 97 2, 232 827 Ar ka nsas 82 140 269 675 Others 3, 779 3, 189 24, 982 25, 219 Sour ce : NASS, Ce nsus of Ag ri cu lt ure , 2007 an d 2002. Number of Farms Acres U. S

2 Small Business Administration Table of Small Business Size Standards http://www.sba.gov/sites/default/files/files/Size_Standards_Table(1).pdf 3 2007 U.S. Census of Agriculture and USDA Economic Research Services (ERS) U.S Blueberry Industry

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Morocc o expects to annually export 360 ,0 00 pounds of fresh blueberries to the continental United States. This quantity is equivalent to about one

- tenth of one percent of U.S net supply

. Morocco’s blueberry production has increased from 200 acr es in 2007 to 500 acres in 2011
. We expect shipments to arrive in July and August, during the latter part of the U.S. season. Any impact on U.S. producers is expected to be negligible, given the relatively small quantity that Morocco intends to export to the continental United States. The APHIS Administrator has determined that this action , if promulgated, will not have a significant economic impact on a subst antial number of small entities.