Total Materials Consumption

An Estimation Methodology and Example

Using Lead—A Materials Flow Analysis

U.S. Department of the Interior

U.S. Geological Survey

U.S. Geological Survey Circular 1183

Monitors Batteries Glassware

Examples of Imports and Exports Containing Lead:
Total Materials Consumption

An Estimation Methodology and Example

Using Lead—A Materials Flow Analysis

By Marilyn B. Biviano, Daniel E. Sullivan, and Lorie A. Wagner

U.S. Geological Survey Circular 1183

U.S. Department of the Interior

U.S. Geological Survey
U.S. Department of the Interior

Bruce Babbitt, Secretary

U.S. Geological Survey

Charles G. Groat, Director

This report is only available on-line at:

http://greenwood.cr.usgs.gov/pub/circulars/c1183/

Any use of trade, product or firm names is for

descriptive purposes only and does not imply

endorsement by the U.S. Government.

Published in the Central Region, Denver, Colorado

Manuscript approved for publication April 30, 1999 

Graphics by the authors

Photocomposition by Lorna Carter and Carol Quesenberry 

Edited by Lorna Carter
III

Contents

Abstract ................................................................................................................................................. 1

Introduction........................................................................................................................................... 1

Methodology ......................................................................................................................................... 2

Mathematical Expression .......................................................................................................... 2

Estimating Total Lead Consumption.................................................................................................. 3

Future Lead Consumption ................................................................................................................... 5

Conclusions........................................................................................................................................... 7

References Cited.................................................................................................................................. 8

Appendix 1. Hypothetical Input-Output Table ................................................................................ 10

Appendix 2. Analysis of Lead Consumption by Lead-Consuming Industries ........................... 11

Figures

1. Flow chart showing generalized methodology for estimating the quantity of

materials contained in net imported products ......................................................... 3

2–4. Graphs showing:

2. U.S. consumption of lead ............................................................................................. 4

3. U.S. consumption of lead per capita.......................................................................... 5

4. U.S. consumption of lead per unit of GDP................................................................. 6

 5. Pie charts showing U.S. lead consumption pattern ............................................................ 7

6–24. Graphs showing:

 6. U.S. lead consumption in lead-acid batteries with projections to 2003............... 8

 7. U.S. consumption of lead with projections to 2003.................................................. 9

 8. U.S. consumption of lead per capita with projections to 2003 .............................. 10

 9. Lead consumed in ammunition products .................................................................. 11

10. Lead consumption by the U.S. ammunition industry relative to

industry output ............................................................................................................ 12

11. Lead consumed in brass and bronze mill products................................................. 13

12. Lead consumption by the U.S. brass and bronze industry relative to

 industry output ........................................................................................................... 13

13. Lead consumed in construction ................................................................................. 14

14. Lead consumption by the U.S. construction industry relative to

industry output ............................................................................................................ 15

15. Lead consumed in gasoline......................................................................................... 15

16. Lead consumption by the U.S. gasoline industry relative to

industry output ............................................................................................................ 16

17. Lead consumed in glass and ceramic products ...................................................... 17

18. Lead consumption by the U.S. glass and ceramic products industry

relative to industry output ......................................................................................... 17

19. Lead consumed in industrial inorganic chemicals.................................................. 18

20. Lead consumption by the U.S. industrial inorganic chemicals industry

relative to industry output ......................................................................................... 19

21. Lead consumed in lead-acid batteries ...................................................................... 20

22. Lead consumption by the U.S. lead-acid battery industry relative to

industry output ............................................................................................................ 20

23. Lead consumed in paints ............................................................................................. 21

24. Lead consumption by the U.S. paint industry relative to industry output ............ 22

Tables

1. Example I-O table using hypothetical data .......................................................................... 10
1

Total Materials Consumption

An Estimation Methodology and Example

Using Lead—A Materials Flow Analysis

By Marilyn B. Biviano, Daniel E. Sullivan, and Lorie A. Wagner

Abstract

Materials consumption estimates, such as apparent consumption of raw materials, can be important indicators of 

sustainability. Apparent consumption is estimated as production of the raw material plus the difference between 

imports and exports, plus or minus changes in its stocks. 

However, apparent consumption of raw materials does not 

account for material contained in manufactured products 

that are imported or exported. When imports and exports of 

manufactured goods that contain the material are significant, 

apparent consumption may under- or over-estimate total 

consumption of materials in the domestic economy, depending on the net direction of trade.

A methodology to measure the amount of material contained in net imports (imports minus exports) was developed by the U.S. Department of Commerce (DOC) in consultation with the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), and is 

demonstrated with lead as an example. The methodology 

builds upon a technique used by the U.S. Department of 

Defense to estimate strategic material requirements and utilizes the gross domestic product, input-output techniques, 

raw materials consumption by industrial sector, and net 

imports of manufactured products by industrial sector. This 

analysis illustrates the DOC-USGS methodology, presents 

illustrations of differences between apparent and total consumption of lead, and further distributes these differences 

into individual lead-consuming sectors.

An estimate of the 1993 total consumption of lead in the 

United States, including lead contained in the net imports of 

manufactured products, was 1.45 million tons,1 14 percent 

above the apparent consumption of raw lead. Future projections of U.S. lead consumption show that by the year 2003, 

total lead consumption will be more than 1.6 million tons. 

Nearly all of this increase was attributed to the projected 

increase in lead contained in imported products, specifically, 

lead-acid batteries. When the per capita apparent consumption of lead is projected to 2003, the United States is decreasing its per capita lead consumption. However, when projecting total per capita lead consumption, which includes 

lead contained in net imports of manufactured products, the 

United States appears to be increasing its per capita consumption to 5.7 kilograms per person, a 2.3 percent increase 

from the 1993 level. 

Introduction

Materials flow is the study of materials use and how it 

affects society, the economy, and the environment from 

extraction, through production, consumption, and final disposition. Published statistics on materials consumption, for 

example, apparent consumption of unprocessed raw material 

(U.S. Geological Survey, 1998), do not account for raw materials contained in manufactured products imported to, or 

exported from, the United States. As U.S. imports of manufactured goods have increased over time, omitting the materials contained in these goods may result in a significant 

measurement error of consumption and, perhaps more importantly, of the observed trend in materials consumption.

Some available material consumption estimates suggest that mature economies such as the United States are 

“dematerializing,” that is, are consuming less material on a 

per capita basis (World Resources Institute, 1997). However, some of these estimates of U.S. materials consumption 

reflect only domestic consumption of unprocessed raw 

materials and do not include materials contained in imports 

of manufactured products. Imported products include direct 

consumables such as products sold in retail stores and intermediate goods which are used as inputs to production by 

industry. As the United States becomes more of a servicebased economy and imports more manufactured goods, not 

accounting for the consumption of materials contained in 

imported goods will result in increased underestimating of 

our consumption of materials. On the other hand, raw 1

In this report, all tons are metric.
2 TOTAL MATERIALS CONSUMPTION—AN ESTIMATION METHODOLOGY USING LEAD

materials included in products that are exported are not consumed in the United States and should not be included in 

U.S. materials consumption data.

A methodology to estimate the amount of materials contained in imported and exported goods has been developed 

using macro-economic and input-output tools. As an application of the methodology, the U.S. consumption of lead was 

investigated. The total consumption of lead includes lead 

consumed in all forms (examples include automobiles, batteries, and glass). Apparent consumption only accounts for 

domestic production of the commodity lead modified by 

imports and exports and stock changes of the commodity. As 

this does not account for the domestic consumption of lead 

that is imported as part of a manufactured product, and does 

include as domestic consumption lead that is exported as part 

of another product, the apparent consumption estimate does 

not necessarily give an accurate picture of the real domestic 

consumption of lead.

Methodology

The methodology developed to estimate the materials 

contained in imports to, and exports from, the United States 

builds upon a technique used by the U.S. Department of 

Defense to estimate strategic material requirements (Krueger, 1976, p. 21–32). Figure 1 illustrates the methodology 

proposed to estimate the materials contained in net imported 

products. Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the Input-Output 

(I-O) table, the raw materials consumption by industrial sector, and net imports of manufactured goods by industrial sector are all used to estimate material requirements for net imports. Note that to simplify the analysis, the U.S. I-O table is 

used as a proxy to estimate the inputs used in goods manufactured in other countries and imported into the United States.

Gross Domestic Product. GDP is the sum of all final 

expenditures for personal consumption; gross private domestic investment; Federal, State, and local government; and net 

exports (International Monetary Fund, 1997, p. xxiii). It can 

also be derived by either summing income or by summing 

value added (either by industry, firm, or establishment).

Input-Output Table. The I-O table represents the 

structure of the economy by utilizing a matrix of transactions 

between industries (Miernyk, 1965; Miller and Blair, 1985). 

This transactions matrix shows interindustry purchases and 

final sales to users and shows the amount of inputs required 

by an industry to produce its output. Detailed I-O tables for 

the United States generally contain 500 or more industrial 

sectors. A hypothetical example of a simplified I-O table is 

shown in Appendix 1.

Translation of Industry Contribution to GDP to 

Total Gross Output by Industry. The first step in 

determining the materials component of net imports of 

manufactured products is to develop total gross output by 

sector for the relevant year. This is done by using the 

industry contribution to GDP, and with the I-O table, translating this amount to the total gross output by industry. 

Total gross output by industry represents the total dollar 

value of outputs produced by each industry. It is the sum of 

each industry’s value of output sold to consumers (final 

demand) and the dollar value of its output sold to other 

industries and used as inputs in their products.

Raw Material Consumption by Industry (s). Raw 

material consumption by industry is the quantity of material 

consumed by an industry. It is the quantity of material 

required by an industry to produce its output. The U.S. 

Department of Commerce provided estimates of lead consumed by the major domestic lead-consuming industries 

(Henry, 1997).

Raw Material Consumption Ratio (r). The material 

consumption ratio defines a relationship between the value 

of economic output and physical material consumed. It is 

the quantity of material consumed by an industry per dollar 

value of total gross output for that industry for a particular 

year. The “r” for each industry (for example, the battery 

industry) is derived by dividing the quantity of material 

(such as lead) consumed by that industry by the total gross 

output of that industry.

Translation of Imports and Exports to Total Gross 

Output by Industry. The next step is to translate imports 

and exports by GDP sector to the total gross output using the 

I-O table. The result is the total gross output required to produce imports (and exports) domestically. Even though technologies are not the same between countries, it is assumed for 

this study that an imported item and a domestically produced 

item are produced by similar methods and that inputs to the 

process are used in the same proportions. This may result in 

some differences.

Material Consumed in Net Imports of Manufactured Products (Q). The next step is to estimate the material 

used to produce net imports of manufactured products 

(imports less exports). First, material consumption is estimated for net imports for each industry by multiplying the 

industry “r” by the total gross output by industry for net 

imports. Total consumption is then estimated as the sum of 

material consumed in net imports plus apparent consumption 

of raw material.

Mathematical Expression

Mathematically this methodology can be expressed as 

shown following. Variables by industrial sector are shown in 

lower case.
ESTIMATING TOTAL LEAD CONSUMPTION2,3 3

Material 

consumed in net 

imports (Q)

 Raw material

consumption per 

gross output by 

industry (r)

Total gross 

output by 

industry

GDP by

industry

I-O

t

a

b

l

e

Imports 

minus 

exports by 

industry

Total gross output by 

industry 

(for net imports)

(m-x)

I-O total 

requirements 

table

 Raw material 

consumption

 by industry (s)

(1)

(2)

(3)

where

Q = quantity of material contained in net imports of manufactured products (tons)

mi = value of industrial output required to produce imported

goods for each material-consuming industry

(dollars)

xi = value of industrial output required to produce exported

goods for each material-consuming industry

(dollars)

ri = raw materials consumption ratio, that is, physical material consumption divided by the value of industrial

output for each material-consuming industry (tons/

dollars)

si = raw material consumption by industrial sector (tons)

S = raw material consumption for all industrial sectors (tons)

T = total material consumption (tons) 

and

i = 1→ k, where k is the number of material-consuming

industries

Q mi – xi [ ] ( )ri

i = 1

k

= ∑

S si

i = 1

k

= ∑

T SQ = +

and

A = C + (P - E) ± ∆V (4)

where

A = apparent raw material consumption

C = domestic raw material (primary and secondary) production

P = imports of raw material

E = exports of raw material

∆V = inventory change (of raw material)

Estimating Total Lead Consumption2,3

Apparent domestic consumption of lead as a raw 

material (not including net imports of manufactured 

products) for 1993 was estimated at 1.26 million tons.4 

Figure 1. Generalized methodology for estimating the quantity of materials contained in net imported products. 

2

David Henry, U.S. Department of Commerce, performed the calculations for the lead application using the methodology developed in conjunction with the USGS and using the University of Maryland’s Iliad inputoutput model. 3Gerald Smith, USGS lead commodity specialist, contributed to the interpretation of the consumption trends. 4

All numerical data in this report are from the working draft, Procedure to estimate total U.S. consumption of raw materials, including raw materials embedded in imports and exports, by David Henry, Office of

Business and Industrial Analysis, Economics and Statistics Administration,

U.S. Department of Commerce, and may differ somewhat from comparable

USGS data.

ESTIMATING TOTAL LEAD CONSUMPTION
4 TOTAL MATERIALS CONSUMPTION—AN ESTIMATION METHODOLOGY USING LEAD

1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

YEAR

MIILLION TONS

T < A T > A 

T: Total consumption

A: Apparent consumption

After excluding lead contained in products that are 

exported, such as batteries and automobiles, and including 

lead contained in imported products, the U.S. total consumption of lead for 1993 is estimated to be 1.44 million 

tons, a 14 percent increase above the estimate of lead raw 

material (domestic industrial consumption).

Figure 2 compares apparent (raw material) lead consumption with total consumption (which includes lead contained in net imported products). It shows several trends and 

a reversal of trend in lead consumption in the United States. 

Between 1972 and 1982, lead contained in exports exceeded 

lead contained in imports so that the estimate for lead consumption without including net imports of products containing lead was 2 percent to 6 percent higher than the estimate 

that included net imports. In 1983, lead in imported products 

began to exceed lead in exported products so that total lead 

consumption “T” exceeded apparent lead consumption “A,” 

which does not include lead in imported products, by a gradually increasing amount, reaching 14 percent in 1993.

The consumption of lead, when net imported products 

containing lead are included, was around 1.44 million tons 

for both 1972 and 1993. In the intervening years, it increased 

to almost 1.53 million tons in 1974 and declined to about 1 

million tons in 1980. The low consumption of lead in 1975 

was the result of a general business recession. The trough 

between 1977 and 1984 was the result of a drop in the consumption of lead because of health concerns and adjustment 

to the cost of environmental controls in addition to the two 

recessions that occurred between 1980 and 1981. The low in 

the early 1990’s reflects the last recession. During the period 

shown in the figure, trends in the consumption of lead by the 

major lead-consuming industries changed dramatically. In 

spite of these fluctuations, by 1993 total lead consumption 

regained its 1972 level.

The consumption of lead per capita is shown in figure 3. 

This figure is similar to figure 2, except that per capita consumption has declined over the 22-year period, 1972-93, for 

both apparent consumption “A” and total consumption “T,” 

which includes lead contained in net imported products. Per 

capita apparent consumption declined from about 7 kilograms to about 5 kilograms over the 22-year study period; 

per capita total consumption declined from about 7 kilograms to about 5.6 kilograms.

Figure 2. U.S. consumption of lead. 
FUTURE LEAD CONSUMPTION 5

1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993

4

5

6

7

8

YEAR

KILOGRAMS

T < A T > A 

T: Total consumption

A: Apparent consumption

Figure 4 shows the total consumption of lead per million dollars of GDP. The dramatic decline in lead per current 

dollar GDP reflects inflation in the U.S. economy rather than 

a sharp drop in lead consumption. However, the constant 

dollar ratio has declined more than 40 percent over the 

period. It shows that lead use per dollar of real GDP has 

fallen at about 2.4 percent per year from 1972 to 1993.

Figure 5 shows that the lead consumption pattern has 

changed dramatically. In 1972, the major consuming industries were lead-acid storage batteries (50 percent), dissipative uses (gasoline additives, ammunition, paints and allied 

products, and industrial inorganic chemicals) (20 percent), 

and all other uses (30 percent). By 1993 dramatic decreases 

in the consumption of lead by some industries had taken 

place (see Appendix 2 for details). In 1993, the consumption 

of lead as a gasoline additive dropped to zero, the use of lead 

in paints and allied products decreased more than 80 percent, 

the use of lead in brass and bronze mill products decreased 

more than 90 percent, and lead use in ammunition decreased 

by more than 30 percent. Two of the major lead consuming 

industries (glass and ceramic products and, most notably, 

lead-acid storage batteries) increased their consumption of 

lead. In 1972, lead-acid batteries accounted for 50 percent 

of domestic consumption; in 1993, the lead-acid battery 

industry accounted for 84 percent of lead consumption.

Over the study period (1972–93), lead consumption 

changed in relation to (1) the quantity of lead used to produce 

a given level of output, (2) the level of output of domestic 

lead-consuming sectors, and (3) the level of lead-containing 

imports and exports. Further, for most of the major leadconsuming industries, the consumption of lead per dollar 

value of output has declined. To better understand the reasons for the observed trends in lead consumption and to 

gather insight to project future consumption, an analysis of 

each major lead-consuming sector was performed. This 

analysis is provided in Appendix 2.

Future Lead Consumption

The projection of future lead consumption is based on 

an industry-by-industry analysis of lead consumption and 

respective trends. In the industry-by-industry analysis,we 

found that for most industries, U.S. lead consumption 

declined during the study period (1972–93). A noted exception to this decline is the increase in the consumption of lead 

in lead-acid batteries. Because of the very different trends 

taking place in lead consumption, the projections for lead 

consumption shown in this report are the sum of two projected components: (1) lead used in lead-acid batteries and 

(2) lead used in other applications.

Figure 3. U.S. consumption of lead per capita. 
6 TOTAL MATERIALS CONSUMPTION—AN ESTIMATION METHODOLOGY USING LEAD

1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

YEAR

KILOGRAMS PER MILLION DOLLARS

kg per current dollar

kg per 1995 dollar

Lead-acid batteries are presently the predominant use of 

lead (about 85 percent of the lead used in the United States). 

In addition, lead consumed in batteries has increased, especially within the most recent 10 years for which published 

data are available. Most of this increase results from lead 

contained in imported batteries. Using a simple method to 

project future lead consumption, we estimated that domestic 

consumption of lead in batteries, including the lead contained in imported batteries, will increase 14 percent by the 

year 2003 to near 1.4 million tons. This estimate was made 

using the average annual growth rate over the period 

1983–93 (1.3 percent) for lead consumption in batteries 

(including refined lead and lead contained in imported products). This projection methodology does not attempt to 

account for changes in technology, economic conditions, or 

other such variables.

Virtually all of the growth in the projected lead consumption for batteries is the result of the increase estimated 

for lead contained in imported batteries. By 2003, apparent 

consumption in batteries is estimated to be more than 1 million tons (fig. 6). Total lead consumption, which includes 

apparent lead (raw material) consumption and the lead contained in net imports of batteries, is estimated to be about 

34 percent greater than apparent consumption in 2003. 

Thus, if apparent consumption alone were used to measure 

U.S. consumption of lead in batteries, consumption would 

be underestimated by one-third; and a slightly negative 

trend, rather than an annual growth trend of 1.3 percent, 

would be projected.

The second component of the U.S. lead consumption 

projection is the use of lead in products other than batteries, 

including ammunition, paints, glass and ceramics, brass and 

bronze metal, gasoline additive, and industrial inorganic 

chemicals. On average, over the last 10 years analyzed in 

this study, 1984–93, consumption of lead in the nonbattery 

applications declined by 6 percent, that is, the growth rate 

was a negative 6 percent. Because many industries have 

eliminated lead in their products, such as gasoline and paint, 

and therefore their projection of lead consumption in nonbattery applications can decline no more, it is assumed that nonbattery consumption of lead does not decline further but 

rather remains at the 1993 level of 226 thousand tons.

The resulting projections of total U.S. lead consumption 

are illustrated in figure 7. By the end of the projection 

period, the year 2003, domestic consumption of lead, including the lead contained in net imported products, will be more 

than 1.6 million tons, 12 percent higher than the 1993 level. 

Total lead consumption in all applications is projected to be 

about 28 percent greater than apparent lead (raw material) 

consumption in 2003. Note that the entire estimated increase 

Figure 4. U.S. consumption of lead per unit of GDP. 
CONCLUSIONS 7

50%

20%

30%

1450

(thousand tons)

84%

5%

11%

1440

(thousand tons)

Batteries Dissipative All other

1972 1993

EXPLANATION

in consumption is attributed to the projected increase in lead 

contained in imported products, specifically, lead-acid batteries. Like the results just presented for lead consumption 

in batteries, if apparent consumption alone were used to 

measure U.S. consumption, consumption would be underestimated by 28 percent and a slightly negative trend projected, 

rather than an annual growth trend of 1.1 percent. The gap 

between total and apparent consumption increases from 

about 180 thousand tons in 1993 to more than 350 thousand 

tons in 2003.

Using the projections of apparent and total U.S. consumption of lead and future U.S. population figures estimated by the U.S. Bureau of the Census (U.S. Bureau of 

the Census, 1996), the resulting per capita consumption 

projections are illustrated in figure 8. The gap between 

total and apparent consumption widens between 1993 and 

2003, and the trends of total and apparent consumption are 

in opposite directions. By the end of the projection period, 

the year 2003, per capita apparent consumption of lead 

(which excludes the lead contained in net imported 

products) declines to less than 4.5 kilograms, an 8.5 percent 

decline from the 1993 level. Per capita consumption of 

total lead, however, shows a modest increase to 5.7 kilograms, a 2.3 percent increase from the 1993 level. Thus, by 

the end of the projection period, per capita consumption 

estimates differ by more than 1.2 kilograms; total per capita 

consumption is 28 percent higher than apparent per capita 

consumption. Using the measure of apparent consumption 

alone, it would appear that the United States is projected to 

decrease its per capita lead consumption, but using the total 

consumption measure, which includes imported products 

containing lead, the United States is projected to increase 

its per capita consumption.

Conclusions

The results of using the methodology show that total 

1993 consumption of lead in the United States, including 

lead contained in the net imports of manufactured products, 

Figure 5. U.S. lead consumption pattern, including lead contained in net imports of manufactured products. Dissipative uses include gasoline additives, ammunition, paints and allied products, and industrial inorganic chemicals. All

other uses include construction, synthetic rubber, glass and ceramic products, brass and bronze mills, and other

metallic applications.
8 TOTAL MATERIALS CONSUMPTION—AN ESTIMATION METHODOLOGY USING LEAD

1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002

0.8

0.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

YEAR

MILLION TONS

Actual Projected

Total consumption

Apparent consumption

was 1.45 million tons, 14 percent above the apparent 

consumption of raw lead only. This analysis shows that 

when imports and exports of manufactured products are significant (as in the case of lead), a truer estimate of total materials consumption can be gained by including an estimate for 

raw materials contained within manufactured products that 

are imported or exported. The methodology can be applied 

to materials flows of other commodities to yield better estimates of materials consumption and more valid indicators of 

a commodity’s sustainability.

References Cited

Henry, D.K., 1997, Procedure to estimate total U.S. consumption of

raw materials, including raw materials embedded in imports

and exports: U.S. Department of Commerce, Office of Business and Industrial Analysis, Economics and Statistics Administration, working draft, February, 31 p.

International Monetary Fund, 1997, International financial statistics: Washington, D.C., June, v. 50, no. 6, 757 p.

Krueger, P.K., 1976, Modeling future requirements for metals and

materials: U.S. Federal Preparedness Agency, Fourteenth

Application of Computers and Operations Research in the Mineral Industry (APCOM) Symposium, The Pennsylvania State

University, 1207 p.

Miernyk, W.H., 1965, The elements of input-output analysis: New

York, Random House, 156 p.

Miller, R.E. and Blair, P.D., 1985. Input-output analysis—Foundations and extensions: Englewood Cliffs, N.J., Prentice-Hall,

Inc., 463 p.

U.S. Geological Survey, 1998, Mineral commodity summaries

1998: U.S. Geological Survey, 197 p.

U.S. Bureau of the Census, Resident population projections of the

United States—Middle, low, and high series, 1996 to 2050.

Accessed September 4, 1997, on the World Wide Web at URL:

http://www.census.gov/population/projections/nation/

npaltsrs.txt

World Resources Institute, 1997, Resource flows—The material

basis of industrial economies: Washington, D.C., 64 p.

Figure 6. U.S. lead consumption in lead-acid batteries with projections to 2003. 
REFERENCES CITED 9

1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

1.7

YEAR

MILLION TONS

Actual Projected

Total consumption

Apparent consumption

Figure 7. U.S. consumption of lead with projections to 2003. 
10 TOTAL MATERIALS CONSUMPTION—AN ESTIMATION METHODOLOGY USING LEAD

1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

YEAR

KILOGRAMS

Actual Projected

Total consumption

Apparent consumption

Appendix 1. Hypothetical 

Input-Output Table

Table 1 is an example of an I-O table using hypothetical 

data. As shown by the table, Industry A purchases $44 of 

inputs and produces $44 of output. The purchases of Industry A are shown in the Industry A column. They consist of 

$10 of inputs from Industry A, $5 from Industry B, $7 from 

Industry C, and $22 of value added items such as compensation to labor, depreciation of capital equipment and buildings, and payments to the government. The distribution of 

Figure 8. U.S. consumption of lead per capita with projections to 2003. 

Table 1. Example I-O table using hypothetical data (in dollars)

Industry A Industry B Industry C Final 

demand

Total gross 

output

Industry A 10 15 1 18 44

Industry B 5 4 7 34 50

Industry C 7 2 8 13 30

Value added 22 29 14 65

Total gross 

input

44 50 30 124
APPENDIX 2. ANALYSIS OF LEAD CONSUMPTION BY LEAD-CONSUMING INDUSTRIES 11

1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

YEAR

TONS

Tons

Total consumption

Apparent consumption

the products of Industry A are shown in the Industry A row. 

They consist of $10 purchased by Industry A, $15 purchased 

by Industry B, $1 purchased by Industry C, and $18 consumed by the final demand sector, which consists of household and government consumption, the formation of capital, 

inventory change, and net exports.

Total final demand and total value added are equal and 

represent Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the economy, 

$65. The final demand by sector represents the industry 

sales for final consumption that is part of GDP final demand. 

For example Industry B contributed $34 to GDP. The valueadded figure for each industry in row four is the contribution 

of each industry to GDP.

Appendix 2. Analysis of Lead 

Consumption by Lead-Consuming 

Industries

As noted in the text, David Henry, U.S. Department 

of Commerce, performed the calculations for the lead 

application using the methodology developed in conjunction 

with the USGS and using the University of Maryland’s Iliad 

input-output model. All data in this report are from the 

working draft, Procedure to estimate total U.S. consumption 

of raw materials, including raw materials embedded in 

imports and exports, by David Henry, Office of Business 

and Industrial Analysis, Economics and Statistics Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce.

Ammunition. Lead used in ammunition was almost 6 

percent of total U.S. consumption in 1993. Figure 9 shows 

U.S. consumption of lead in ammunition products from 1972 

through 1993. Consumption was approximately 24 thousand tons less in 1993 than it was in 1972. It had declined 

more than 43 thousand tons in the early 1980’s and has been 

generally recovering since then. The United States is a net 

exporter of ammunition; therefore, apparent consumption is 

higher than total consumption, which includes imports of 

ammunition products. Figure 10 shows lead consumption in 

terms of tons per million 1987 dollars of output by the U.S. 

ammunition industry. Consumption was 82 tons per million 

dollars of output in 1972, rose to a high of more than 115 in 

1977, and has remained less than 54 since 1983. In 1993, 

Figure 9. Lead consumed in ammunition products. 
12 TOTAL MATERIALS CONSUMPTION—AN ESTIMATION METHODOLOGY USING LEAD

1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993

40

60

80

100

120

YEAR

TONS PER MILLION 1987 DOLLARS

only 52 tons were needed per million dollars of output in 

terms of constant dollars. Many factors may have contributed to this decline; examples include environmental concerns and less military use.

Brass and Bronze Mills. Lead used to produce brass 

and bronze mill products was about 0.5 percent of total U.S. 

consumption of lead in 1993. Figure 11 shows the consumption of lead in brass and bronze mill products from 1972 

through 1993. This U.S. sector remains a net exporter, albeit 

only slightly. Consequently estimated lead contained in 

imports of brass and bronze mill products is less than lead 

contained in exported products, so apparent consumption is 

higher than total consumption. The consumption of lead by 

the U.S. brass and bronze industry has also declined per real 

dollar of output as illustrated in figure 12. In 1972, the brass 

and bronze industry consumed nearly 38.6 tons per million 

dollars of output, but by 1993, this was reduced to almost 3.1 

tons per million 1987 dollars of output as the industry has 

replaced lead with other metals, primarily bismuth. Health 

concerns have caused the reduction of lead used in this industry in many applications, such as the reduction of lead in 

faucets. As a result, total lead consumption by this industry 

dropped from approximately 93,000 tons in 1972 to just a 

little more than 6,900 tons in 1993.

Figure 10. Lead consumption by the U.S. ammunition industry relative to industry output. 

Figure 11 (see page 13, top). Lead consumed in brass and

bronze mill products.

Figure 12 (see page 13, bottom). Lead consumption by

the U.S. brass and bronze industry relative to industry

output. 
APPENDIX 2. ANALYSIS OF LEAD CONSUMPTION BY LEAD-CONSUMING INDUSTRIES 13

1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

YEAR

TONS

Apparent consumption

Total consumption

1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

YEAR

TONS PER MILLION 1987 DOLLARS
14 TOTAL MATERIALS CONSUMPTION—AN ESTIMATION METHODOLOGY USING LEAD

1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

YEAR

TONS

Total consumption

Apparent consumption

Construction. Lead used in the construction industry 

was about 1.5 percent of total U.S. consumption in 1993. 

Lead has historically been used in many construction applications such as sound barriers, roofing, flashing, piping, 

caulking, waterproofing, and radiation shielding. The 

decline of lead use in construction has occurred because of 

environmental concerns about lead use in plumbing, soldering, and caulking. The combined consumption of lead by 

both the heavy construction (such as highways, bridges, 

pipelines, and dams) and building construction sectors for 

the period from 1972 through 1993 is shown in figure 13. 

Lead contained in net imports of construction products is 

small; therefore, there is little difference between apparent 

consumption and total consumption. Consumption of lead 

per million 1987 dollars of output for the two construction 

sectors (shown in fig. 14) also declined over the period. In 

1972, heavy construction consumed nearly 1.3 tons of lead 

per million 1987 dollars of output. By 1993 consumption 

had declined to only 0.29 tons per million 1987 dollars of 

output. Similarly, lead consumption for building construction also declined, from 1.6 tons per million 1987 dollars of 

output in 1972 to 0.29 in 1993. Lead consumption by these 

two industries decreased from 147,000 tons in 1972 to less 

than 22,000 tons in 1993.

Gasoline Additives. Concerns over the environmental 

implications of releasing lead into the atmosphere resulted in 

governmental mandates which prohibited the addition of 

lead to gasoline. This caused lead consumption in gasoline 

to plummet from almost 98,000 tons in 1972 to zero in 1993. 

The consumption of lead in gasoline for the period from 1972 

through 1993 is shown in figure 15. Figure 16 shows lead 

consumption in gasoline in terms of tons per million 1987 

Figure 13. Lead consumed in construction. 

Figure 14 (see page 15, top). Lead consumption by the

U.S. construction industry relative to industry output. 

Figure 15 (see page 15, bottom). Lead consumed in

gasoline. 
APPENDIX 2. ANALYSIS OF LEAD CONSUMPTION BY LEAD-CONSUMING INDUSTRIES 15

1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

YEAR

TONS

Total consumption

Apparent consumption

1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993

0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

YEAR

TONS PER MILLION 1987 DOLLARS

Heavy construction

Building construction
16 TOTAL MATERIALS CONSUMPTION—AN ESTIMATION METHODOLOGY USING LEAD

1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993

0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

YEAR

TONS PER MILLION 1987 DOLLARS

dollars of output. This was 2.8 tons per million dollars of 

output in 1972, declining to zero in 1993 (all on a constantdollar basis).

Glass and Ceramic Products. Lead used to produce 

glass and ceramic products was more than 3 percent of total 

U.S. consumption in 1993. Figure 17 shows the consumption of lead in glass and ceramic products from 1972 through 

1993. Total consumption, which includes imports of lead in 

glass and ceramic products, remains greater than apparent 

consumption for the period. Output by this industry 

increased over the period from $14.7 billion in 1972 to $17.5 

billion in 1993, all in constant 1987 dollars. Lead is an 

important ingredient in television and computer monitor 

screens because of its shielding properties. Both the amount 

of lead per screen and the number of screens being produced 

have increased. As a result, the consumption of lead per million dollars of output by this industry, as shown in figure 18, 

has increased from 1.6 tons in 1972 to nearly 2.4 tons in 

1993. As a result, total consumption of lead by this industry 

has increased from nearly 25,000 tons in 1972 to 46,000 tons 

in 1993.

Industrial Inorganic Chemicals. Lead used in industrial inorganic chemicals was about 0.7 percent of total U.S. 

consumption in 1993. Lead is used to make pigments, 

Figure 16. Lead consumption by the U.S. gasoline industry relative to industry output. 

Figure 17 (see page 17, top). Lead consumed in glass and

ceramic products. 

Figure 18 (see page 17, bottom). Lead consumption by

the U.S. glass and ceramic products industry relative to

industry output. 
APPENDIX 2. ANALYSIS OF LEAD CONSUMPTION BY LEAD-CONSUMING INDUSTRIES 17

1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

2.4

2.6

YEAR

TONS PER MILLION 1987 DOLLARS

1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

YEAR

TONS

Total consumption

Apparent consumption
18 TOTAL MATERIALS CONSUMPTION—AN ESTIMATION METHODOLOGY USING LEAD

1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

YEAR

TONS

Total consumption

Apparent consumption

additives, and other chemicals, which are then added to materials such as plastics to give them color or desirable characteristics. Figure 19 shows the consumption of lead by the 

industrial inorganic chemical industry for the period from 

1972 through 1993. Total consumption, which includes 

imports of industrial inorganic chemicals, is shown to be 

always lower in this industry than apparent consumption, 

although in recent years they are much closer. The consumption of lead by the industrial inorganic chemical industry has 

also declined per million dollar of output, as shown in figure 

20. In 1972, the industrial inorganic chemical industry consumed 3.2 tons per million 1987 dollars of output; by 1993, 

this was reduced to about 0.5 tons per million 1987 dollars of 

output. This reduction took place because lead additives to 

materials such as plastics are being replaced by less toxic 

materials. Total lead consumption dropped from 

approximately 53,000 tons in 1972 to a little more than 9,000 

tons in 1993.

Lead-Acid Storage Batteries. Lead used to produce 

lead-acid storage batteries was more than 84 percent of total 

U.S. consumption in 1993. Figure 21 shows the consumption of lead in lead-acid storage batteries for the period from 

1972 through 1993. The difference between total consumption and apparent consumption in the first part of this period 

is small. In more recent years the calculated total consumption of lead in batteries has grown because of an increase in 

imports of lead-acid batteries. The consumption of lead per 

1987 dollar value of output by the lead-acid storage battery 

industry declined significantly over the period (fig. 22), 

thanks to improved technology requiring less lead per battery. In 1972, 384 tons of lead was consumed per million 

1987 dollars of real output; however, by 1993 this amount 

Figure 19. Lead consumed in industrial inorganic chemicals. 
APPENDIX 2. ANALYSIS OF LEAD CONSUMPTION BY LEAD-CONSUMING INDUSTRIES 19

1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993

0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

YEAR

TONS PER MILLION 1987 DOLLARS

Figure 20. Lead consumption by the U.S. industrial inorganic chemicals industry relative to industry output. 

Figure 21 (see page 20, top). Lead consumed in lead-acid

batteries. 

Figure 22 (see page 20, bottom). Lead consumption by

the U.S. lead-acid battery industry relative to industry

output. 
20 TOTAL MATERIALS CONSUMPTION—AN ESTIMATION METHODOLOGY USING LEAD

1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993

240

260

280

300

320

340

360

380

400

YEAR

TONS PER MILLION 1987 DOLLARS

1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

YEAR

MILLION TONS

Total consumption

Apparent consumption
APPENDIX 2. ANALYSIS OF LEAD CONSUMPTION BY LEAD-CONSUMING INDUSTRIES 21

1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

YEAR

TONS

Total consumption

Apparent consumption

was reduced to 297 tons per million 1987 dollars of real output, nearly a 23 percent decrease. During this same time 

period, however, the lead-acid storage battery industry’s output increased. Therefore, even with a decrease in the consumption of lead per dollar value of output, lead 

consumption rose. It was 719 thousand tons in 1972, and by 

1993 it had increased to 1,218 thousand tons.

Paints and Allied Products. Lead used by the paints 

and allied products industry was about 0.6 percent of total 

U.S. consumption in 1993. Figure 23 shows the

consumption of lead by the paints and allied products industry for the period from 1972 through 1993. Lead contained 

in net imports does not play a large role. An environmental 

and health concern over lead-based paints resulted in the dramatic decrease in lead use in paints and allied products, from 

about 7.2 tons per million 1987 dollars of output by this 

industry in 1972 to less than 1 ton per million 1987 dollars of 

output by 1993. As a result, the quantity of lead consumed 

by the paint industry (fig. 24) declined from 55 thousand 

tons in 1972 to less than 9 thousand in 1993.

Figure 23. Lead consumed in paints. 
22 TOTAL MATERIALS CONSUMPTION—AN ESTIMATION METHODOLOGY USING LEAD

1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993

0

2

4

6

8

10

YEAR

TONS PER MILLION 1987 DOLLARS

Figure 24. Lead consumption by the U.S. paint industry relative to industry output.