Testimony 

Before the Subcommittee on 

Environment, Technology, and Standards, 

Committee on Science, 

House of Representatives 

United States General Accounting Office 

GAO

For Release on Delivery 

Expected at 2 p.m. EDT 

Tuesday, July 15, 2003 POLAR-ORBITING 

ENVIRONMENTAL 

SATELLITES 

Project Risks Could Affect 

Weather Data Needed by 

Civilian and Military Users 

Statement of David A. Powner, 

Acting Director, Information Technology Management 

Issues 

GAO-03-987T 
The NPOESS program faces key programmatic and technical risks that may 

affect the successful and timely deployment of the system. The original plan 

for NPOESS was that it would be available to serve as a backup to the March 

2008 launch of the final satellite in one of the two current satellite 

programs—the Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite (POES) 

system. However, changing funding streams and revised schedules have 

delayed the expected launch date of the first NPOESS satellite by 21 months. 

Thus, the first NPOESS satellite will not be ready in time to back up the final 

POES satellite, resulting in a potential gap in satellite coverage should that 

satellite fail. Specifically, if the final POES launch fails and if existing 

satellites are unable to continue operations beyond their expected lifespans, 

the continuity of weather data needed for weather forecasts and climate 

monitoring will be put at risk. Moreover, concerns with the development of 

key NPOESS components, including critical sensors and the data processing 

system, may cause additional delays in the satellite launch date. 

The program office is working to address the changes in funding levels and 

schedule, and to make plans for addressing specific risks. Further, it is 

working to develop a new cost and schedule baseline for the NPOESS 

program by August 2003. 

Timeline of Delay in Launch Availability 

Polar-orbiting environmental 

satellites provide data and imagery 

that are used by weather 

forecasters, climatologists, and the 

military to map and monitor 

changes in weather, climate, the 

ocean, and the environment. The 

current polar satellite program is a 

complex infrastructure that 

includes two satellite systems, 

supporting ground stations, and 

four central data processing 

centers. In the future, the National 

Polar-orbiting Operational 

Environmental Satellite System 

(NPOESS) is to merge the two 

current satellite systems into a 

single state-of-the-art environment 

monitoring satellite system. This 

new $7 billion satellite system is 

considered critical to the United 

States’ ability to maintain the 

continuity of data required for 

weather forecasting and global 

climate monitoring through the 

year 2018. In its testimony GAO 

was asked, among other topics, to 

discuss risks to the success of the 

NPOESS deployment. 

www.gao.gov/cgi-bin/getrpt?GAO-03-987T.

To view the full product, including the scope 

and methodology, click on the link above. 

For more information, contact David Powner 

at (202) 512-9286 or pownerd@gao.gov. 

Highlights of GAO-03-987T, a testimony 

before the Subcommittee on Environment, 

Technology, and Standards, Committee 

on Science, House of Representatives 

July 15, 2003 

POLAR-ORBITING ENVIRONMENTAL 

SATELLITES 

Project Risks Could Affect Weather Data 

Needed by Civilian and Military Users 
Page 1 GAO-03-987T 

Mr. Chairman and Members of the Subcommittee: 

We appreciate the opportunity to join in today’s hearing to discuss our 

work on the planned National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental 

Satellite System (NPOESS). At your request, we will provide an overview 

of our nation’s current polar-orbiting environmental satellite program and 

the planned NPOESS program. We will also discuss key risks to the 

successful and timely deployment of NPOESS. 

In brief, today’s polar-orbiting environmental satellite program is a 

complex infrastructure encompassing two satellite systems, supporting 

ground stations, and four central data processing centers that provide 

general weather information and specialized environmental products to a 

variety of users, including weather forecasters, military strategists, and the 

public. NPOESS is planned to merge the two satellite systems into a single 

state-of-the-art environment monitoring satellite system. This new satellite 

system, currently estimated to cost about $7 billion, is considered critical 

to the United States’ ability to maintain the continuity of data required for 

weather forecasting and global climate monitoring through the year 2018. 

However, the NPOESS program faces key programmatic and technical 

risks that may affect the successful and timely deployment of the system. 

Specifically, changing funding streams and revised schedules have delayed 

the expected launch date of the first NPOESS satellite by 21 months. Thus, 

the first NPOESS satellite will not be ready in time to back up the final 

POES satellite, resulting in a potential gap in satellite coverage should that 

satellite fail. Specifically, if the final POES launch fails and if existing 

satellites are unable to continue operations beyond their expected 

lifespans, the continuity of weather data needed for weather forecasts and 

climate monitoring will be put at risk. In addition, concerns with the 

development of key NPOESS components, including critical sensors and 

the data processing system, could cause additional delays in the satellite 

launch date. 

The program office is working to address the changes in funding levels 

and schedule, and to make plans for addressing specific risks. Further, it is 

working to develop a new cost and schedule baseline for the NPOESS 

program by August 2003. 
Page 2 GAO-03-987T 

This statement builds on work we have done on environmental satellite 

programs over the last several years.1

 An overview of the approach we 

used to perform this work—our objectives, scope, and methodology—is 

provided in appendix I. 

Since the 1960s, the United States has operated two separate operational 

polar-orbiting meteorological satellite systems. These systems are known 

as the Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellites (POES), 

managed by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s 

(NOAA) National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service 

(NESDIS), and the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP), 

managed by the Department of Defense (DOD). These satellites obtain 

environmental data that are processed to provide graphical weather 

images and specialized weather products, and that are the predominant 

input to numerical weather prediction models—all used by weather 

forecasters, the military, and the public. Polar satellites also provide data 

used to monitor environmental phenomena, such as ozone depletion and 

drought conditions, as well as data sets that are used by researchers for a 

variety of studies, such as climate monitoring. 

Unlike geostationary satellites, which maintain a fixed position above the 

earth, polar-orbiting satellites constantly circle the earth in an almost 

north-south orbit, providing global coverage of conditions that affect the 

weather and climate. Each satellite makes about 14 orbits a day. As the 

earth rotates beneath it, each satellite views the entire earth’s surface 

twice a day. Today, there are two operational POES satellites and two 

operational DMSP satellites that are positioned so that they can observe 

the earth in early morning, mid-morning, and early afternoon polar orbits. 

Together, they ensure that for any region of the earth, the data provided to 

users are generally no more than 6 hours old. Figure 1 illustrates the 

current operational polar satellite configuration. Besides the four 

operational satellites, there are five older satellites in orbit that still collect 

some data and are available to provide some limited backup to the 

operational satellites should they degrade or fail. In the future, both NOAA 

 1

U.S. General Accounting Office, Polar-orbiting Environmental Satellites: Status, Plans, 

and Future Data Management Challenges, GAO-02-684T (Washington, D.C.: July 24, 2002); 

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration: National Weather Service 

Modernization and Weather Satellite Program, GAO/T-AIMD-00-86 (Washington, D.C.: 

Mar. 29, 2000); and Weather Satellites: Planning for the Geostationary Satellite Program 

Needs More Attention, GAO-AIMD-97-37 (Washington, D.C.: Mar. 13, 1997). 

Existing Polar 

Satellite 

Infrastructure 
Page 3 GAO-03-987T 

and DOD plan to continue to launch additional POES and DMSP satellites 

every few years, with final launches scheduled for 2008 and 2010, 

respectively. 

Figure 1: Configuration of Operational Polar Satellites 

Each of the polar satellites carries a suite of sensors designed to detect 

environmental data either reflected or emitted from the earth, the 

atmosphere, and space. The satellites store these data and then transmit 

the data to NOAA and Air Force ground stations when the satellites pass 

overhead. The ground stations then relay the data via communications 

satellites to the appropriate meteorological centers for processing. 

Under a shared processing agreement among the four processing 

centers—NESDIS,2

 the Air Force Weather Agency, Navy’s Fleet Numerical 

 2

Within NOAA, NESDIS processes the satellite data, and the National Centers for 

Environmental Prediction (NCEP), a component of NOAA’s National Weather Service, runs 

the models. For simplicity, we refer to the combined NESDIS/NCEP processing center as 

the NESDIS processing center. 
Page 4 GAO-03-987T 

Meteorology and Oceanography Center, and the Naval Oceanographic 

Office—different centers are responsible for producing and distributing 

different environmental data sets, specialized weather and oceanographic 

products, and weather prediction model outputs via a shared network. 

Each of the four processing centers is also responsible for distributing the 

data to its respective users. For the DOD centers, the users include 

regional meteorology and oceanography centers as well as meteorology 

and oceanography staff on military bases. NESDIS forwards the data to 

NOAA’s National Weather Service for distribution and use by forecasters. 

The processing centers also use the Internet to distribute data to the 

general public. NESDIS is responsible for the long-term archiving of data 

and derived products from POES and DMSP. 

In addition to the infrastructure supporting satellite data processing noted 

above, properly equipped field terminals that are within a direct line of 

sight of the satellites can receive real-time data directly from the polarorbiting satellites. There are an estimated 150 such field terminals 

operated by the U.S. government, many by DOD. Field terminals can be 

taken into areas with little or no data communications infrastructure—

such as on a battlefield or ship—and enable the receipt of weather data 

directly from the polar-orbiting satellites. These terminals have their own 

software and processing capability to decode and display a subset of the 

satellite data to the user. Figure 2 depicts a generic data relay pattern from 

the polar-orbiting satellites to the data processing centers and field 

terminals. 
Page 5 GAO-03-987T 

Figure 2: Generic Data Relay Pattern for the Polar Meteorological Satellite System 

Polar satellites gather a broad range of data that are transformed into a 

variety of products for many different uses. When first received, satellite 

data are considered raw data.3

 To make them usable, the processing 

centers format the data so that they are time-sequenced and include earth 

location and calibration information. After formatting, these data are 

called raw data records. The centers further process these raw data 

records into data sets, called sensor data records and temperature data 

records. These data records are then used to derive weather products 

called environmental data records (EDR). EDRs range from atmospheric 

products detailing cloud coverage, temperature, humidity, and ozone 

distribution; to land surface products showing snow cover, vegetation, and 

land use; to ocean products depicting sea surface temperatures, sea ice, 

 3

NOAA uses different nomenclature for its data processing stages: raw data are known as 

level 0 data; raw data records are known as level 1a data; sensor data records and 

temperature data records are known as level 1b data; and environmental data records are 

known as level 2 data. 

Polar Satellite Data, 

Products, and Uses 
Page 6 GAO-03-987T 

and wave height; to characterizations of the space environment. 

Combinations of these data records (raw, sensor, temperature, and 

environmental data records) are also used to derive more sophisticated 

products, including outputs from numerical weather models and 

assessments of climate trends. Figure 3 is a simplified depiction of the 

various stages of data processing. 

Figure 3: Satellite Data Processing Steps 

EDRs can be either images or quantitative data products. Image EDRs 

provide graphical depictions of the weather and are used to observe 

meteorological and oceanographic phenomena to track operationally 

significant events (such as tropical storms, volcanic ash,4

 and icebergs), 

and to provide quality assurance for weather prediction models. 

The following figures demonstrate polar-orbiting satellite images. Figure 4 

is an image from a DMSP satellite showing an infrared picture taken over 

the west Atlantic Ocean. Figure 5 is a POES image of Hurricane Floyd, 

which struck the southern Atlantic coastline in 1999. Figure 6 is a polarsatellite image used to detect volcanic ash clouds, in particular the ash 

cloud resulting from the eruption of Mount Etna in 2001. Figure 7 shows 

the location of icebergs near Antarctica in February 2002. 

 4

Volcanic ash presents a hazard to aviation because of its potential to damage engines. 
Page 7 GAO-03-987T 

Figure 4: DMSP Image of the West Atlantic Ocean 

Source: Navy Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center. 
Page 8 GAO-03-987T 

Figure 5: POES Image of Hurricane Floyd in 1999 

Source: NOAA. 

Figure 6: POES Image of Volcanic Ash Cloud from Mt. Etna, Sicily, in 2001 

Source: NOAA. 
Page 9 GAO-03-987T 

Figure 7: DMSP Image of Icebergs Near Antarctica 

Source: Naval/National Ice Center. 

Quantitative EDRs are specialized weather products that can be used to 

assess the environment and climate or to derive other products. These 

EDRs can also be depicted graphically. Figures 8 and 9 are graphic 

depictions of quantitative data on sea surface temperature and ozone 

measurements, respectively. An example of a product that was derived 

from EDRs is provided in figure 10. This product shows how long a person 

could survive in the ocean—information used in military as well as search 

and rescue operations—and was based on sea surface temperature EDRs 

from polar-orbiting satellites. 
Page 10 GAO-03-987T 

Figure 8: Analysis of Sea Surface Temperatures from POES Satellite Data 

Source: NOAA/NESDIS. 
Page 11 GAO-03-987T 

Figure 9: Analysis of Ozone Concentration from POES Satellite Data 

Source: NESDIS. 
Page 12 GAO-03-987T 

Figure 10: Analysis of Water Survivability off the Atlantic Seaboard, January 2002 

Source: Naval Oceanographic Office. 

Note: Contour lines with blocked numbers depict survival time, in hours, without a survival suit.. 

Another use of quantitative satellite data is in numerical weather 

prediction models. Based predominantly on observations from polarorbiting satellites and supplemented by data from other sources such as 

geostationary satellites, radar, weather balloons, and surface observing 

systems, numerical weather prediction models are used in producing 
Page 13 GAO-03-987T 

hourly, daily, weekly, and monthly forecasts of atmospheric, land, and 

ocean conditions. These models require quantitative satellite data to 

update their analysis of weather and to produce new forecasts. Table 1 

provides examples of models run by the processing centers. Figure 11 

depicts the output of one common model. 

Table 1: Common Numerical Weather Prediction Models Used by Processing Centers 

Model Purpose Processing center 

Global Forecast System Global weather forecasts NESDIS/NCEP 

Eta Model Regional weather forecasts NESDIS/NCEP 

Mesoscale Model 5 Regional forecasts Air Force Weather Agency 

Advect Cloud Model Global cloud forecast and analysis Air Force Weather Agency 

Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction 

System 

Global weather forecasts Navy Fleet Numerical Meteorology and 

Oceanography Center 

Coupled Oceanographic and Atmospheric 

Mesoscale Prediction System 

Regional weather forecasts Navy Fleet Numerical Meteorology and 

Oceanography Center 

Wave Model Regional oceanographic forecasts Naval Oceanographic Office 

Source: NOAA and DOD. 
Page 14 GAO-03-987T 

Figure 11: Model Output Depicting a 6-Hour Precipitation Forecast 

Source: NOAA/NCEP. 

All this information—satellite data, imagery, derived products, and model 

output—is used in mapping and monitoring changes in weather, climate, 

the ocean, and the environment. These data and products are provided to 

weather forecasters for use in issuing weather forecasts and warnings to 

the public and to support our nation’s aviation, agriculture, and maritime 

communities. Also, weather data and products are used by climatologists 

and meteorologists to monitor the environment. Within the military, these 

data and products allow military planners and tactical users to focus on 

anticipating and exploiting atmospheric and space environmental 

conditions. For example, Air Force Weather Agency officials told us that 

accurate wind and temperature forecasts are critical to any decision to 

launch an aircraft that will need mid-flight refueling. In addition to these 

operational uses of satellite data, there is also a substantial need for polar 

satellite data for research. According to experts in climate research, the 

research community requires long-term, consistent sets of satellite data 

collected sequentially, usually at fixed intervals of time, in order to study 

many critical climate processes. Examples of research topics include longterm trends in temperature, precipitation, and snow cover. 
Page 15 GAO-03-987T 

Given the expectation that merging the POES and DMSP programs would 

reduce duplication and result in sizable cost savings, a May 1994 

Presidential Decision Directive required NOAA and DOD to converge the 

two satellite programs into a single satellite program capable of satisfying 

both civilian and military requirements. The converged program is called 

the National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System 

(NPOESS), and it is considered critical to the United States’ ability to 

maintain the continuity of data required for weather forecasting and global 

climate monitoring. To manage this program, DOD, NOAA, and the 

National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) have formed a triagency Integrated Program Office, located within NOAA. 

Within the program office, each agency has the lead on certain activities. 

NOAA has overall responsibility for the converged system, as well as 

satellite operations; DOD has the lead on the acquisition; and NASA has 

primary responsibility for facilitating the development and incorporation 

of new technologies into the converged system. NOAA and DOD share the 

costs of funding NPOESS, while NASA funds specific technology projects 

and studies. 

NPOESS is a major system acquisition estimated to cost almost $7 billion 

over the 24-year period from the inception of the program in 1995 through 

2018.5

 The program is to provide satellite development, satellite launch and 

operation, and integrated data processing. These deliverables are grouped 

into four main categories: (1) the launch segment, which includes the 

launch vehicle and supporting equipment, (2) the space segment, which 

includes the satellites and sensors, (3) the interface data processing 

segment, which includes the data processing system to be located at the 

four processing centers, and (4) the command, control, and 

communications segment, which includes the equipment and services 

needed to track and control satellites. 

Program acquisition plans call for the procurement and launch of six 

NPOESS satellites over the life of the program and the integration of 14 

instruments, comprising 12 environmental sensors and 2 subsystems. 

Together, the sensors are to receive and transmit data on atmospheric, 

cloud cover, environmental, climate, oceanographic, and solar-geophysical 

 5

The fiscal year 2004 President’s budget identified the $6.96 billion estimate in base year 

dollars. 

The National Polarorbiting Operational 

Environmental 

Satellite System 

NPOESS Overview 
Page 16 GAO-03-987T 

observations. The subsystems are to support nonenvironmental search 

and rescue efforts and environmental data collection activities. According 

to the Integrated Program Office, 8 of the 14 planned NPOESS instruments 

involve new technology development, whereas 6 others are based on 

existing technologies. The planned instruments and the state of 

technology on each are listed in table 2. 

Table 2: Expected NPOESS Instruments 

Instrument name Description 

State of 

technology 

Advanced technology 

microwave sounder 

This sensor is to measure microwave energy released and scattered by the 

atmosphere, and is to be used with infrared sounding data from NPOESS’ crosstrack infrared sounder to produce daily global atmospheric temperature, humidity, 

and pressure profiles. 

New 

Aerosol polarimetry sensor This sensor is to retrieve specific aerosol (liquid droplets or solid particles 

suspended in the atmosphere, such as sea spray, smog, and smoke) and cloud 

measurements. 

New 

Conical microwave 

imager/sounder 

This sensor is to collect microwave images and data needed to measure rain rate, 

ocean surface wind speed and direction, amount of water in the clouds, and soil 

moisture, as well as temperature and humidity at different atmospheric levels. 

New 

Cross-track infrared 

sounder 

This sensor is to collect measurements of the earth’s radiation to determine the 

vertical distribution of temperature, moisture, and pressure in the atmosphere. 

New 

Data collection system This system collects environmental data from platforms around the world and 

delivers them to users worldwide. 

Existing 

Earth radiation budget 

sensor 

This sensor measures solar short-wave radiation and long-wave radiation released 

by the earth back into space on a worldwide scale to enhance long-term climate 

studies. 

Existing 

Global Positioning System 

occultation sensor 

This sensor is to measure the refraction of radio wave signals from the Global 

Positioning System and Russia’s Global Navigation Satellite System to characterize 

the ionosphere. 

New 

Ozone mapper/profiler 

suite 

This sensor is to collect data needed to measure the amount and distribution of 

ozone in the earth’s atmosphere. 

New 

Radar altimeter This sensor measures variances in sea surface height/topography and ocean 

surface roughness, which are used to determine sea surface height, significant wave 

height, and ocean surface wind speed and to provide critical inputs to ocean 

forecasting and climate prediction models. 

Existing 

Search and rescue satellite 

aided tracking system 

This system detects and locates aviators, mariners, and land-based users in 

distress. 

Existing 

Space environmental 

sensor suite 

This suite of sensors is to collect data to identify, reduce, and predict the effects of 

space weather on technological systems, including satellites and radio links. 

New 

Survivability sensor This sensor monitors for attacks on the satellite and notifies other instruments in 

case of an attack. 

Existing 

Total solar irradiance 

sensor 

This sensor monitors and captures total and spectral solar irradiance data. Existing 

Visible/infrared imager 

radiometer suite 

This sensor is to collect images and radiometric data used to provide information on 

the earth’s clouds, atmosphere, ocean, and land surfaces. 

New 

Source: Integrated Program Office. 

Unlike the current polar satellite program, in which the four centers use 

different approaches to process raw data into the environmental data 
Page 17 GAO-03-987T 

records that they are responsible for, the NPOESS integrated data 

processing systemto be located at the four centers—is expected to 

provide a standard system to produce these data sets and products. The 

four processing centers will continue to use these data sets to produce 

other derived products, as well as for input to their numerical prediction 

models. 

NPOESS is planned to produce 55 EDRs, including atmospheric vertical 

temperature profile, sea surface temperature, cloud base height, ocean 

wave characteristics, and ozone profile. Some of these EDRs are 

comparable to existing products, whereas others are new. The user 

community designated six of these data products—supported by four 

sensors6

—as key EDRs, and noted that failure to provide them would 

cause the system to be reevaluated or the program to be terminated. 

The NPOESS acquisition program consists of three key phases: the 

concept and technology development phase, which lasted from roughly 

1995 to early 1997; the program definition and risk reduction phase, which 

began in early 1997 and ended in August 2002; and the engineering and 

manufacturing development and production phase, which began in August 

2002 and is expected to continue through the life of the program. The 

concept and technology development phase began with the decision to 

converge the POES and DMSP satellites and included early planning for 

the NPOESS acquisition. This phase included the successful convergence 

of the command and control of existing DMSP and POES satellites at 

NOAA’s satellite operations center. 

The program definition and risk reduction phase involved both systemlevel and sensor-level initiatives. At the system level, the program office 

awarded contracts to two competing prime contractors to prepare for 

NPOESS system performance responsibility. These contractors developed 

unique approaches to meeting requirements, designing system 

architectures, and developing initiatives to reduce sensor development 

and integration risks. These contractors competed for the development 

and production contract. At the sensor level, the program office awarded 

 6

The four sensors supporting key EDRs are (1) the advanced technology microwave 

sounder, (2)the conical microwave imager/sounder, (3) the cross-track infrared sounder, 

and (4) the visible/infrared imager radiometer suite.

Acquisition Strategy 
Page 18 GAO-03-987T 

contracts to develop five sensors.7 This phase ended when the 

development and production contract was awarded. At that point, the 

winning contractor was expected to assume overall responsibility for 

managing continued sensor development. 

The final phase, engineering and manufacturing development and 

production, began when the development and production contract was 

awarded to TRW in August 2002. At that time, TRW assumed system 

performance responsibility for the overall program. This responsibility 

includes all aspects of design, development, integration, assembly, test and 

evaluation, operations, and on-orbit support. Shortly after the contract 

was awarded, Northrop Grumman Space Technology purchased TRW and 

became the prime contractor on the NPOESS project. 

In May 1997, the Integrated Program Office assessed the technical, 

schedule, and cost risks of key elements of the NPOESS program, 

including (1) overall system integration, (2) the launch segment, (3) the 

space segment, (4) the interface data processing segment, and (5) the 

command, control, and communications segment. As a result of this 

assessment, the program office determined that three elements had high 

risk components: the interface data processing segment, the space 

segment, and the overall system integration. Specifically, the interface data 

processing segment and overall system integration were assessed as high 

risk in all three areas (technical, cost, and schedule), whereas the space 

segment was assessed to be high risk in the technical and cost areas, and 

moderate risk in the schedule area. The launch segment and the command, 

control, and communications segment were determined to present low or 

moderate risks. The program office expected to reduce its high risk 

components to low and moderate risks by the time the development and 

production contract was awarded, and to have all risk levels reduced to 

low before the first launch. Table 3 displays the results of the 1997 risk 

assessment as well as the program office’s estimated risk levels by August 

2002 and by first launch. 

 7

The five sensors include (1) the conical microwave imager/sounder, (2) the cross-track 

infrared sounder, (3) the Global Positioning System occultation sensor, (4) the ozone 

mapper/profiler suite, and (5) the visible/infrared imager radiometer suite. 

Risk Reduction Activities 

Are Underway 
Page 19 GAO-03-987T 

Table 3: Actual Risk Levels in 1997, at Contract Award in August 2002, and Projected Risk Level by First Launch 

In order to meet its goals of reducing program risks, the program office 

developed and implemented multiple risk reduction initiatives. One risk 

reduction initiative specifically targeted the space segment risks by 

initiating the development of key sensor technologies in advance of the 

satellite system itself. Because environmental sensors have historically 

taken 8 years to develop, the program office began developing six of the 

eight sensors with more advanced technologies early. In the late 1990s, the 

program office awarded contracts for the development, analysis, 

simulation, and prototype fabrication of five of these sensors.8

 In addition, 

NASA awarded a contract for the early development of one other sensor.9

Responsibility for delivering these sensors was transferred from the 

 8

The five program office-initiated sensors include (1) the conical microwave 

imager/sounder, (2) the cross-track infrared sounder, (3) the Global Positioning System 

occultation sensor, (4) the ozone mapper/profiler suite, and (5) the visible/infrared imager 

radiometer suite. 

9

NASA contracted for the advanced technology microwave sounder sensor. 
Page 20 GAO-03-987T 

program office to the prime contractor when the NPOESS contract was 

awarded in August 2002.10

Another major risk reduction initiative expected to address risks in three 

of the four segments with identified risks is called the NPOESS 

Preparatory Project (NPP).11 NPP is a planned demonstration satellite to 

be launched in 2006, several years before the first NPOESS satellite launch 

in 2009. It is scheduled to host three of the four critical NPOESS sensors 

(the visible/infrared imager radiometer suite, the cross-track infrared 

sounder, and the advanced technology microwave sounder), as well as 

two other noncritical sensors. Further, NPP will provide the program 

office and the processing centers an early opportunity to work with the 

sensors, ground control, and data processing systems. Specifically, this 

satellite is expected to demonstrate about half of the NPOESS EDRs and 

about 93 percent of its data processing load. 

Since our statement last year,12 the Integrated Program Office has made 

further progress on NPOESS. Specifically, it awarded the contract for the 

overall program and is monitoring and managing contract deliverables, 

including products that will be tested on NPP. The program office is also 

continuing to work on various other risk reduction activities, including 

learning from experiences with sensors on existing platforms, including 

NASA research satellites, the WINDSAT/Coriolis weather satellite, and the 

NPOESS airborne sounding testbed. 

While the program office has made progress both on the acquisition and 

risk reduction activities, the NPOESS program faces key programmatic 

and technical risks that may affect the successful and timely deployment 

of the system. Specifically, changing funding streams and revised 

schedules have delayed the expected launch date of the first NPOESS 

satellite, and concerns with the development of key sensors and the data 

processing system may cause additional delays in the satellite launch date. 

These planned and potential schedule delays could affect the continuity of 

weather data. Addressing these risks may result in increased costs for the 

 10In the case of the advanced technology microwave sounder sensor, NASA is responsible 

for developing the initial sensor while the NPOESS prime contractor is responsible for 

subsequent production of these sensors. 

11NPP will not address risks in the launch segment. 

12GAO-02-684T. 

NPOESS Faces Key 

Programmatic and 

Technical Risks 
Page 21 GAO-03-987T 

overall program. In attempting to address these risks, the program office is 

working to develop a new cost and schedule baseline for the NPOESS 

program, which it hopes to complete by August 2003. 

When the NPOESS development contract was awarded, program office 

officials identified an anticipated schedule and funding stream for the 

program. The schedule for launching the satellites was driven by a 

requirement that the satellites be available to back up the final POES and 

DMSP satellites should anything go wrong during these satellites’ planned 

launches. In general, program officials anticipate that roughly 1 out of 

every 10 satellites will fail either during launch or during early operations 

after launch. 

Key program milestones included (1) launching NPP by May 2006 in order 

to allow time to learn from that risk reduction effort, (2) having the first 

NPOESS satellite available to back up the final POES satellite launch in 

March 2008, and (3) having the second NPOESS satellite available to back 

up the final DMSP satellite launch in October 2009. If the NPOESS 

satellites were not needed to back up the final predecessor satellites, their 

anticipated launch dates would have been April 2009 and June 2011, 

respectively. 

However, a DOD program official reported that between 2001 and 2002, 

the agency experienced delays in launching a DMSP satellite, causing 

delays in the expected launch dates of another DMSP satellite. In late 2002, 

DOD shifted the expected launch date for the final DMSP satellite from 

2009 to 2010. As a result, DOD reduced funding for NPOESS by about $65 

million between fiscal years 2004 and 2007. According to NPOESS 

program officials, because NOAA is required to provide no more funding 

than DOD does, this change triggered a corresponding reduction in 

funding by NOAA for those years. As a result of the reduced funding, 

program office officials were forced to make difficult decisions about what 

to focus on first. The program office decided to keep NPP as close to its 

original schedule as possible because of its importance to the eventual 

NPOESS development, and to shift some of the NPOESS deliverables to 

later years. This shift will affect the NPOESS deployment schedule. 

Table 4 compares the program office’s current estimates for key 

milestones, given current funding levels. 

NPOESS Funding and 

Schedule Are Changing 
Page 22 GAO-03-987T 

Table 4: Comparison of Key Milestones Related to the NPOESS Program 

Milestone 

As of August 

2002 contract 

award As of July 2003 

NPP launch May 2006 October 2006 

Final POES launch March 2008 March 2008 

First NPOESS satellite available for launch March 2008 December 2009 

First NPOESS satellite planned for launch April 2009 November 2009a

Final DMSP launch October 2009 May 2010 

Second NPOESS satellite available for 

launch 

October 2009 April 2011 

Second NPOESS satellite planned for launch June 2011 June 2011 

Source: Integrated Program Office, DOD, and GAO. 

a

A program official reported that if the first NPOESS satellite is not needed to back up the final POES 

launch in March 2008, the contractor will prepare the satellite to be launched in a different orbit with a 

different suite of sensors. These factors will allow the launch to take place earlier than if the satellite 

were to be used as a backup to the final POES launch. 

As a result of the changes in funding between 2003 and 2007, project office 

officials estimate that the first NPOESS satellite will be available for 

launch 21 months after it is needed to back up the final POES satellite. 

This means that should the final POES launch fail in March 2008, there 

would be no backup satellite ready for launch. Unless the existing 

operational satellite is able to continue operations beyond its expected 

lifespan, there could be a gap in satellite coverage. Figure 12 depicts the 

schedule delay. 
Page 23 GAO-03-987T 

Figure 12: Timeline of Delay in Launch Availability 

We have reported on concerns about gaps in satellite coverage in the past. 

In the early 1990s, the development of the second generation of NOAA’s 

geostationary satellites experienced severe technical problems, cost 

overruns, and schedule delays, resulting in a 5-year schedule slip in the 

launch of the first satellite; this schedule slip left NOAA in danger of 

temporarily losing geostationary satellite data coverage—although no gap 

in coverage actually occurred.13 In 2000, we reported that geostationary 

satellite data coverage was again at risk because of a delay in a satellite 

launch due to a problem with the engine of its launch vehicle.14 At that 

time, existing satellites were able to maintain coverage until the new 

satellite was launched over a year later—although one satellite had 

exceeded its expected lifespan and was using several backup systems in 

cases where primary systems had failed. DOD experienced the loss of 

DMSP satellite coverage in the 1970s, which led to increased recognition 

 13GAO/AIMD-97-37. 

14GAO/T-AIMD-00-86. 
Page 24 GAO-03-987T 

of the importance of polar-orbiting satellites and of the impact of the loss 

of satellite data. 

In addition to the schedule issues facing the NPOESS program, concerns 

have arisen regarding key components. Although the program office 

reduced some of the risks inherent in developing new technologies by 

initiating the development of these sensors early, individual sensor 

development efforts have experienced cost increases, schedule delays, and 

performance shortfalls. The cost estimates for all four critical sensors (the 

ones that are to support the most critical NPOESS EDRs) have increased, 

due in part to including items that were not included in the original 

estimates, and in part to addressing technical issues.15 These increases 

range from approximately $60 million to $200 million. Further, while all 

the sensors are still expected to be completed within schedule, many have 

slipped to the end of their schedule buffers—meaning that no additional 

time is available should other problems arise. Details on the status and 

changes in cost and schedule of four critical sensors are provided in 

table 5. The timely development of three of these sensors (the 

visible/infrared imager radiometer suite, the cross-track infrared sounder, 

and the advanced technology microwave sounder) is especially critical, 

because these sensors are to be demonstrated on the NPP satellite, 

currently scheduled for launch in October 2006. 

 15Program officials noted that the more recent cost estimates include items that were not 

included in the original estimates, such as system engineering, integration, and testing; 

overhead costs; on-orbit support; and additional units of one of the sensors, as well as 

costs to address technical issues. 

Key Sensor Development 

Efforts Are Experiencing 

Cost Increases, Schedule 

Delays, and Performance 

Shortfalls 
Page 25 GAO-03-987T 

Table 5: Comparison of Costs and Schedules of Four Critical Sensorsa

Comparison of schedule estimates 

Comparison of cost estimates 

(millions of dollars) Critical design review First unit delivery 

Critical sensors Original Current Change

Contract 

award 

Current 

date Change 

Contract 

award Current Change 

Advanced 

technology 

microwave 

sounder b

$78.6 $137.8 $59.2 Dec 2001 May 2002 5 months Oct 2004 Dec 2004 2 months 

Cross-track 

infrared sounder 

$74.1 $275.3 $201.2 Jan 2003 Aug 2003 7 months Feb 2005 Oct 2005 8 months 

Visible/infrared 

imager radiometer 

suite 

$297.6 $426.75 $129.15 Mar 2002 Mar 2002 0 months Dec 2004 Nov 2005 11 months

Conical microwave 

imager/sounder 

$298.0 $384.5 $86.5 Apr 2004 Nov 2005 19 months Apr 2006 Apr 2008 24 months

Source: Integrated Program Office and NASA data. 

a

Program officials noted that the recent estimates include items such as system integration and 

testing that were not included in the original estimates.

b

NASA is incurring all costs for the development of the advanced technology microwave sounder 

instrument, which is to fly on NPP. The program office expects to fund the other advanced technology 

microwave sounder instruments at a cost of $206.6 million. 

Critical sensors are also falling short of achieving the required levels of 

performance. As part of a review in early 2003, the program officials 

determined that all four critical sensors were at medium to high risk of 

shortfalls in performance. Program officials recently reported that since 

the time of that review, the concerns that led to those risk designations 

have been addressed, which contributed to the schedule delays and cost 

increases noted above. We have not evaluated the closure of these risk 

items. However, program officials acknowledge that there are still 

performance issues on two critical sensors which they are working to 

address. Specifically, officials reported that they are working to fix a 

problem with radio frequency interference on the conical microwave 

imager/sounder. Also, the program office is working with NASA to fix 

problems with electrostatic discharge procedures and misalignment of key 

components on the advanced technology microwave sounder. Further, the 

program office will likely continue to identify additional performance 

issues as the sensors are developed and tested. Officials anticipate that 

there could be cost increases and schedule delays associated with 

addressing performance issues. 

Program officials reported that these and other sensor problems are not 

unexpected; previous experience with such problems was what motivated 
Page 26 GAO-03-987T 

them to begin developing the sensors early. However, officials 

acknowledge that continued problems could affect the sensors’ delivery 

dates and potentially delay the NPP launch. Any delay in that launch date 

could affect the overall NPOESS program because the success of the 

program depends on learning lessons in data processing and system 

integration from the NPP satellite. 

The interface data processing system is a ground-based system that is to 

process the sensors’ data so that they are usable by the data processing 

centers and the broader community of environmental data users. The 

development of this system is critical for both NPP and NPOESS. When 

used with NPP, the data processing system is expected to produce 26 of 

the 55 EDRs that NPOESS will provide, processing approximately 93 

percent of the planned volume of NPOESS data. Further, the central 

processing centers will be able to work with these EDRs to begin 

developing their own specialized products with NPP data. These activities 

will allow system users to work through any problems well in advance of 

when the NPOESS data are needed. We reported last year that the volumes 

of data that NPOESS will provide present immense challenges to the 

centers’ infrastructures and to their scientific capability to use these 

additional data effectively in weather products and models.16 We also 

noted that the centers need time to incorporate these new data into their 

products and models. Using the data processing system in conjunction 

with NPP will allow them to begin to do so. 

While the data processing segment is currently on schedule, program 

officials acknowledge the potential for future schedule delays. 

Specifically, an initial version of the data processing system is on track to 

be delivered at the end of July, and a later version is being planned. 

However, the data processing system faces potential risks that could affect 

the availability of NPP and in turn NPOESS. Specifically, program officials 

reported that there is a risk that the roughly 32 months allocated for 

developing the remaining software and delivering, installing, and verifying 

the system at two central processing centers will not be sufficient. A 

significant portion of the data processing system software involves 

converting scientific algorithms for operational use, but program officials 

noted that there is still uncertainty in how much time and effort it will take 

to complete this conversion. Any significant delays could cause the 

 16GAO-02-684T. 

Level of Effort and Time 

Needed to Develop the 

Interface Data Processing 

System for NPP and 

NPOESS Is Not Known 
Page 27 GAO-03-987T 

potential coverage gap between the launches of the final POES and first 

NPOESS satellites to grow even larger. 

Program officials are working to address the changes in funding levels and 

schedule, and to make plans for addressing specific sensor and data 

processing system risks. They acknowledge that delays in the program and 

efforts to address risks on key components could increase the overall cost 

of the program, which could result on the loss of some or all of the 

promised cost savings from converging the two separate satellite systems. 

However, estimates on these cost increases are still being determined. The 

program office is working to develop a new cost and schedule baseline 

based on the fiscal year 2004 President’s budget for the NPOESS program. 

Officials noted that this rebaselining effort will involve a major contract 

renegotiation. Program officials reported that they hope to complete the 

new program baseline by August 2003. 

In summary, today’s polar-orbiting weather satellite program is essential to 

a variety of civilian and military operations, ranging from weather 

warnings and forecasts to specialized weather products. NPOESS is 

expected to merge today’s two separate satellite systems into a single 

state-of-the-art weather and environmental monitoring satellite system to 

support all military and civilian users, as well as the public. This new 

satellite system is considered critical to the United States’ ability to 

maintain the continuity of data required for weather forecasting and global 

climate monitoring through the year 2018, and the first satellite was 

expected to be ready to act as a backup should the launch of the final 

satellites in the predecessor POES and DMSP programs fail. 

The NPOESS program office has made progress over the last years in 

trying to reduce project risks by developing critical sensors early and by 

planning the NPOESS Preparatory Project to demonstrate key sensors and 

the data processing system well before the first NPOESS launch. However, 

the NPOESS program faces key programmatic and technical risks that may 

affect the successful and timely deployment of the system. Specifically, 

changing funding streams and revised schedules have delayed the 

expected launch date of the first NPOESS satellite, and concerns with the 

development of key sensors and the data processing system may cause 

additional delays in the satellite launch date. These factors could affect the 

continuity of weather data needed for weather forecasts and climate 

monitoring. 

NPOESS Program Office Is 

Working to Address Risks 
Page 28 GAO-03-987T 

This concludes my statement. I would be pleased to respond to any 

questions that you or other members of the Subcommittee may have at 

this time. 

If you have any questions regarding this testimony, please contact David 

Powner at (202) 512-9286 or by E-mail at pownerd@gao.gov. Individuals 

making key contributions to this testimony include Barbara Collier, John 

Dale, Ramnik Dhaliwal, Colleen Phillips, and Cynthia Scott. 

Contact and 

Acknowledgements 
Page 29 GAO-03-987T 

Our objectives were to provide an overview of our nation’s current polarorbiting weather satellite program and the planned National Polar-orbiting 

Operational Environmental Satellite System (NPOESS) program and to 

identify key risks to the successful and timely deployment of NPOESS. 

To provide an overview of the nation’s current and future polar-orbiting 

weather satellite system programs, we relied on prior GAO reviews of the 

satellite programs of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric 

Administration (NOAA) and the Department of Defense (DOD). We 

reviewed documents from NOAA, DOD, and the National Aeronautics and 

Space Administration (NASA) that describe the purpose and origin of the 

polar satellite program and the status of the NPOESS program. We also 

interviewed Integrated Program Office and NASA officials to determine 

the program’s background, status, and plans. 

To identify key risks to the successful and timely deployment of NPOESS, 

we assessed the NPOESS acquisition status and program risk reduction 

efforts to understand how the program office plans to manage the 

acquisition and mitigate the risks to successful NPOESS implementation. 

We reviewed descriptions of the NPOESS sensors and interviewed 

officials at the Integrated Program Office, NASA, and DOD to determine 

the status of key sensors, program segments, and risk reduction activities. 

We also reviewed documents and interviewed program office officials on 

plans to address NPOESS challenges. 

NOAA, DOD, and NASA officials generally agreed with the facts as 

presented in this statement and provided some technical corrections, 

which we have incorporated. We performed our work at the NPOESS 

Integrated Program Office, NASA headquarters, and DOD offices, all 

located in the Washington, D.C., metropolitan area. Our work was 

performed between April and July 2003 in accordance with generally 

accepted government auditing standards. 

Appendix I. Objectives, Scope, and 

Methodology 

(310445) 
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