U.S. Department of Justice

Office of Justice Programs

National Institute of Justice

DEPARTMENT OF JUSTICE

OFF ICE OF JUSTICE PROGRAMS

BJA NI J OJJDP BJS OVC

R e s e a r c h i n B r i e f

National Institute of Justice

Jeremy Travis, Director

continued...

A Study of Homicide in Eight U.S. Cities:

An NIJ Intramural Research Project

November 1997

(e.g., economic conditions) and situational factors (e.g., drug use) and

increases and decreases in homicide

rates. The study also examined whether

changes in the responses of the criminal

justice system appeared to be related to

changes in the homicide rates in these

cities. The eight cities were selected

because their homicide rates were the

strongest examples of selected trends.

Therefore, the findings reported here

cannot be generalized to other cities or

to the Nation as a whole.

As shown in exhibit 1, the annual number

of homicides in the United States in 1994

(23,310) represented only a modest decrease from 1990 (23,440) and was significantly higher than the 1985 figure

(18,980).1

In recent years, sharp declines in homicide rates have been recorded in some

major U.S. cities. For example, the homicide rate in New York City dropped 53

percent between 1991 and 1996.

Policymakers, researchers, and the media

have attributed such declines to a variety

of factors, including demographic shifts,

drug market stabilization, and increased

police visibility. Such declines were not

universal, however; some cities experienced increases and others little change.

To help refine the understanding of homicide and violence in U.S. cities, the National Institute of Justice (NIJ) initiated a

series of intramural research projects.

This report summarizes an eight-city

study that examined the relationships

between shifts in environmental factors

Issues and Findings

Discussed in this Brief: A research project to help refine the

understanding of the dynamics of

homicide in U.S. cities. The project

examines the extent to which

demographic trends, economic

conditions, drug use and drug

markets, changes in firearms use,

and the response of law enforcement agencies appear to be associated with changes in homicide

rates over time. The data were

gathered in the summer of 1996

for the period 1985–1994 in eight

cities. These cities were chosen for

the strength of their homicide

trends—that is, homicide rates in

the study cities followed clear

trends. Therefore, the findings cannot be generalized to other cities

or to the Nation as a whole.

Key issues: In recent years, sharp

declines in homicides have been recorded in some major U.S. cities.

Researchers and analysts have attributed these declines to a variety

of factors, such as demographic

changes, changes in drug market

stability, new police strategies, and

improved economic conditions.

However, not all cities are experiencing this downward trend, and

focusing on national trends may

mask a complex picture. This report attempts to link homicide

rates with specific social, economic,

and demographic influences.

Exhibit 1: Homicides in the United States, 77 largest U.S. cities, and 8 study cities

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

United States

Selected 8 Cities x 10

77 Largest U.S. Cities

1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994

Note: For the eight study cities, totals were multiplied by 10 so that the variation in the trend could be seen.
2

R e s e a r c h i n B r i e f

The researchers designing the study formulated several hypotheses about factors

that might be affecting homicide rates in

U.S. cities. These hypotheses were

grouped into three major categories, or

domains: environmental factors, situational factors, and criminal justice system factors. (See “Study Methodology:

Defining and Examining the Domains.”)

The findings related to each of these domains are summarized below.

Exhibit 1 also displays homicide data from

the 77 largest U.S. cities (those with a

population of 200,000 or more) and the 8

cities, chosen from those 77, that were the

focus of this study. (See “Study Methodology: Selecting the Cities.”) These 77 cities

are home to approximately 20 percent of

the U.S. population, but they accounted for

approximately 50 percent of all homicides

in the country during the study period. In

over half of these cities, both the number of

homicides and the homicide rate per 100,000

residents increased from 1990 to 1994.

Key findings: The research examined three broad domains: environmental, situational, and criminal

justice system influences. Key findings in these areas include the

following:

• Homicides in which the victim

and offender were intimates or related made up a relatively small

portion of all homicides, but a sizable portion of female homicides.

• Guns appeared to be increasingly preferred as the means of homicide, regardless of whether the

homicide rate in a city was increasing or decreasing.

• Homicide rates corresponded

closely with cocaine use levels

measured among the adult male

arrestee population.

• Young black males, particularly

those 18 to 24 years old, were

greatly overrepresented among

homicide victims compared to their

representation in the general

population.

This project also identified topics

for future inquiry:

• The links between guns, emergency

medical services, and mortality rates.

• The spatial and temporal distribution of homicide, including the

link between public housing and

homicide.

• The effects of changes in law

enforcement practices on homicide.

• The influence of economic conditions on homicide trends for all

large U.S. cities.

Target audience: Federal, State,

and local law enforcement agencies; multijurisdictional and interagency task forces; police homicide

units; mayors; city councils; emergency service providers; criminal

justice researchers.

Issues and Findings continued...

Study Methodology: Selecting the Cities

o select the eight cities for the study,

the researchers began with 77 cities that

had populations greater than 200,000 at

any time during the 10-year period 1985–

1994,a

 identifying the mean annual number

of homicides and the mean annual homicide rate (number per 100,000 residents) in

each city. They eliminated those cities that

fell below the median in either of those categories, focusing on the 32 cities with the

largest numbers and rates of homicide.

Using regression analysis, the researchers

categorized the pattern of each city’s homicide rate between 1985 and 1994 into one

of four trends: decreasing linear, decreasing

quadratic, increasing linear, and increasing

quadratic. Linear trends are those in which

the homicide rates generally move in one

direction, upward or downward. Quadratic

trends change direction once over the relevant period; thus, a decreasing quadratic

trend is marked by an increase followed by

a decrease, and an increasing quadratic

trend is marked by a decrease followed by

an increase. In some cities, the homicide

rates showed considerable year-to-year

variation; because of the limited data series,

no attempt was made to fit these rates to

more complex curves. Those cities where

homicide rates did not follow one of the

four trend types were categorized as following no trend.

In contrast to the national trend in homicide

rates (decreasing quadratic, as shown in exhibit 1), only 9 of the 32 cities had a decreasing trend (2 linear, 7 quadratic).

Fourteen of the 32 cities exhibited an increasing homicide trend (13 linear, 1 quadratic); 9 could not be categorized and

were deemed to show no clear trend for

this time period. Within each category of

trend, the researchers selected the two cities with the strongest trendb (however, only

one city showed an increasing quadratic

trend). The researchers also chose one city

that showed no trend. The eight cities—

Atlanta, Detroit, Indianapolis, Miami, New

Orleans, Richmond, Tampa, and Washington, D.C.—are shown in exhibit 2, along

with their annual homicide rates and identified trend lines.

T

a Initially, 78 cities with population over 200,000 were included in the dataset. However,

Uniform Crime Report data were not available for Wichita, Kansas, so that city was excluded

from consideration.

b Richmond was chosen instead of St. Louis because other researchers are currently studying

homicide in St. Louis.
3

R e s e a r c h i n B r i e f

age-gender-race group—and during

the study period those rates increased

in all cities. For example, in Tampa in

1993, black males ages 18–24 comprised 1.2 percent of the city’s population, but 28 percent of the city’s

homicide victims. Expressed as a ratio

(percentage of homicide victims in

this group divided by percentage of

overall population in the group), black

males ages 18–24 in Tampa were 24

times more likely to be murdered than

would have been expected based on

their representation in the population.

Exhibit 3 shows the “overrepresentation ratio” among three age groups of

black males in each of the eight cities

for the 10 years of the study. In some

Homicide and Environmental

Factors

The environmental domain includes

the social context within which homicide and violence occur. It contains a

set of societal forces that are typically

beyond any individual’s control, such

as demographics, employment rates,

and available programs and services

(other than those under the jurisdiction of the criminal justice system).

The investigations into many areas

of this domain proved inconclusive

because of conflicting reports from

respondents and the lack of data. No

solid link could be identified between

homicide rates and such factors as

income distribution, education level,

or household type. On the other hand,

employment levels and poverty

seemed somewhat related to homicide

trends. Also, in cities with decreasing

homicide trends, intimate and family

homicides decreased more than other

homicides. Social and public services,

including emergency medical services

and domestic violence programs, were

viewed as effective in curtailing homicides, even though some respondents

suggested that improved services

were unable to overcome the tide

of violence.

Demographics and homicide.

Victimization rates for black males in

the 18–24 age group were substantially higher than rates for any other

Exhibit 2: Annual homicide rates for study cities, 1985–1994

1985–1994 1985–1994 1985–1994 1985–1994 1985–1994 1985–1994 1985–1994 1985–1994

Atlanta

Homicides/100,000 population

Washington Detroit Tampa New Orleans Richmond Indianapolis Miami

Observed Best Fit

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Decreasing 

Quadratic Decreasing 

Linear

Increasing 

Linear

Increasing

Quadratic

No Change
4

R e s e a r c h i n B r i e f

cities, the overrepresentation increased over time, regardless of the

overall trend of homicides in that city.

Domestic violence and homicide.

To evaluate the relationship between

domestic violence and homicide, data

from the Federal Bureau of Investigation’s Supplemental Homicide Reports (SHR) were examined.2

 The

victim-offender relationship codes

were sorted into three categories:

• Family member (by blood or marriage) or romantic intimate.3

• Person known to the victim, but not

a family member or intimate.

• Person not known to the victim

(a stranger).

Homicides in which the victim and offender were related or intimate made

up a relatively small portion of homicides in the study cities; however they

accounted for a sizable portion of

female-victim homicides. Exhibit 4

shows the average number of homicides committed in each study city by

someone related to or intimate with the

victim. In cases where the victimoffender relationship was reported,

roughly 50 percent of female victims

were killed by family members or

other intimates; in contrast, fewer than

20 percent of male victims were killed

by family members or other intimates.

(However, the victim-offender relationship was not reported for a large number of the homicides in several cities.)

In Atlanta, Detroit, and Tampa, improvements in domestic violence services may have played a role in the

observed declines in homicides committed by family members or intimate

partners.

Employment levels and homicide.

Census data from 1980 and 1990 were

used to assess the relationship between

economic factors, such as employment

levels, and changes in homicide rates.4

In New Orleans and Richmond, employment declined among black males,

while homicide increased; a similar

pattern was observed in Washington,

D.C., and Atlanta. In Tampa, employment increased at least slightly for all

Exhibit 3: Disproportionate homicide victimization of black males, 1985–1994

1985–1994

Ratio of Homicide Victimization Rates

to Representation in the Population

1985–1994 1985–1994 1985–1994 1985–1994 1985–1994 1985–1994 1985–1994

Washington Atlanta Detroit Tampa New Orleans Richmond Indianapolis Miami

Age group: 13–17 18–24 25+

0

5

10

15

20

25

30
5

R e s e a r c h i n B r i e f

groups, while homicide decreased—

again supporting a potential link

between employment and homicide.

Emergency medical services and

homicide. Respondents in several

cities suggested that improvements in

emergency medical services (EMS)

probably dampened homicide rates

that might otherwise have been worse.

All EMS directors interviewed attested

to the increased burden placed on

EMS by the increased use and power

of guns. In one city, for example, the

increase in firearm damage was illustrated by the average number of gunshot wounds per shooting victim,

which increased from 1.1 to 2.4 in a

5-year period (1991–1995).

Homicide and Situational

Factors

The situational domain is the context

within which homicide and violence

occur. This context is generally directly related to an individual’s behavior. Drug use and the availability and

use of firearms were of particular interest. Although gang activity has also

been suggested as a major factor in

Exhibit 4: Intimate or family homicides, by victim gender, 1985–1994

City Females Killed by Males Killed by All Victims Killed by

Intimate or Family Member Intimate or Family Member Intimate or Family Member

Average Percent of Percent of Victims Average Percent of Percent of Victims Average Percent of Percent of Victims

Number Victims With Known VOR Number Victims With Known VOR Number Victims With Known VOR

Atlanta 11.7 31 51 14.8 9 16 26.5 13 23

Detroit 17.9 17 29 28.6 6 11 46.5 8 14

Indianapolis 5.9 40 56 7.3 13 17 13.2 19 25

Miami 7.7 37 60 4.7 4 10 12.3 10 21

New Orleans 10.7 28 48 12.4 6 16 23.1 9 23

Richmond 4.7 27 45 3.5 4 8 8.2 8 15

Tampa 4.3 30 62 3.7 8 13 8.0 13 22

Washington, D.C. 6.7 15 44 7.3 2 12 14.0 4 18

Key: VOR = Victim-Offender Relationship

violence, the cities chosen did not

have large gang problems.

Drugs and homicide. The respondents in cities with declining homicide

rates rated the problems associated

with drugs just as highly as those in

cities with stable or increasing homicide rates. Most respondents appeared

to develop their impressions about

drug problems from law enforcement

efforts and national trends, rather than

from locally available drug use indicators. Crack cocaine was, by far, the

drug that respondents most commonly

associated with community violence,

although marijuana markets were cited

as emerging sources of violence in

Washington and Richmond. Data from

the Drug Use Forecasting (DUF) program (see “Monitoring Arrestee Drug

Use”) validate this perception.

Six of the eight cities in this study

gather DUF data: Atlanta, Detroit, Indianapolis, Miami, New Orleans, and

Washington. As shown in exhibit 5,

cocaine use levels among the adult

Monitoring Arrestee Drug Use

ince 1987 the National Institute of

Justice’s (NIJ) Drug Use Forecasting (DUF)

program has gathered information on

drug use from arrestees in 23 U.S. cities.

The data are obtained quarterly through

in-jail interviews with arrestees. The DUF

interview has fewer than 30 questions

and solicits major demographic and descriptive data, including age, gender, race

or ethnicity, level of education, living arrangements, source and amount of income, marital status, drug treatment

S history, and recent criminal behavior.

Self-reports of recent drug use (within

the last 72 hours) are corroborated

through analysis of a urine specimen that

is tested for 10 drugs.

The DUF program has recently been replaced by the Arrestee Drug Abuse Monitoring (ADAM) program, which is designed

to improve sampling and to serve as an

enhanced research platform. NIJ hopes to

expand the ADAM program to 75 U.S.

cities, as well as to other countries.
6

R e s e a r c h i n B r i e f

Exhibit 5: Homicide rates and cocaine-positive percentages among male arrestees, 1987–1994.

nity violence and homicide, either in

interviews or in data analysis. Washington and Detroit seemed to show a

relationship between heroin use and

homicide. However, closer analysis

showed that most arrestees testing

positive for heroin also tested positive

for cocaine; it seems, therefore, that

heroin users in those cities are largely

a subset of cocaine users and not a

separate cohort.

Based on the information given in interviews and on data analyses, the relationship between cocaine use and

violence appears to be due to characteristics of crack market participation.

In particular, crack cocaine markets

are typically outdoor markets, and established relationships between customers and dealers are less likely than

in some other drug markets, making

violent confrontations between buyers

and sellers more likely. Furthermore,

the effects of crack are short lived, so

users are often looking for another

“hit” within minutes. Thus, crack

users are more likely than other drug

users to remain in the market area,

further increasing the likelihood of

violence.

Guns and homicide. Most homicides

in all eight cities were committed with

firearms. Guns were used in more than

80 percent of the homicides in each

city for at least 1 year of the study

period. The percentage of homicides

attributable to guns steadily increased

in every study city, even in those with

decreasing homicide trends. Thus,

while firearms are increasingly seen

male arrestee population correlated

quite closely with homicide rates in

five of the six DUF cities. As positive

cocaine test rates increased, homicide

rates also increased; as cocaine prevalence rates decreased, homicide rates

decreased. (In New Orleans, this was

not true in the 1990s, but it was true in

the latter half of the 1980s.) Cocaine

use in these cities was most prevalent

among arrestees ages 25 and older.

However, in two cities (Atlanta and Indianapolis), cocaine use was increasing among the juvenile population

during portions of the study period.

This could be a warning sign of future

drug-related problems in those communities.5

Drugs other than cocaine were not

consistently associated with commuWashington Atlanta Detroit New Orleans Indianapolis Miami

Homicide Rate Cocaine-Positive Percentage

Homicides/100,000 population

Arrestees cocaine positive (%) 

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1987–1994 1987–1994 1987–1994 1987–1994 1987–1994 1987–1994
7

R e s e a r c h i n B r i e f

as the weapon of choice, the gun homicide trend does not seem related to the

overall homicide trend. Respondents

in all sites expressed concern about

the levels of gun violence. Many cited

the lack of a comprehensive local

strategy to combat gun violence, similar to the strategies that have targeted

drug use. Some interviewees recognized Federal efforts as being particularly helpful.

The Criminal Justice Domain

The focus on the criminal justice domain included law enforcement, the

courts, prosecution, and corrections,

as well as joint task forces and multijurisdictional efforts. This line of inquiry was established to explore the

impact that criminal justice policies

and practices might have on homicide

trends.

Policing and homicide. Respondents in all cities reported that law enforcement resources were being used

more efficiently than in the past. All

cities reported targeting police efforts

to “hot spots,” as well as developing

community-oriented policing practices. Some cities have implemented

mandatory arrest policies for domestic

violence, and others have some form of

preferred arrest policy (that is, the

officer must explain why an arrest was

not made). However, in most of the cities, all these programs were started too

recently to judge their impact on homicide trends during the 10-year period

that ended in 1994.

Clearance rates and homicide.

Combining all eight cities, there is

a strong negative correlation between

annual homicide clearance rates and

the annual number of homicides

committed during the same year

(see exhibit 6). Looking at individual

cities, this negative relationship is

statistically significant for Miami,

New Orleans, Richmond, and Washington, D.C.; Atlanta, Indianapolis,

and Tampa show similar, but nonsignificant, trends.

The negative correlation between

clearance rates and homicide counts

seen in these cities may be due to

clearance rates affecting homicide,

homicide affecting clearance rates, or

both. To clarify the relationship, researchers computed the correlation

Study Methodology: Defining and Examining the Domains

n addition to studying the extant

homicide data for these cities, the researchers conducted site visits and interviews. Since they were attempting to

identify factors that might have affected

homicide rates during the years of the

study period (1985–1994), they organized the questions for the interviews

around three sets of factors, or structural

domains:

• Environmental factors—including economic conditions, demographic changes,

local policies and service programs (not

administered by criminal justice agencies),

and prevention programs.

• Situational factors—including drug

market stability, extent and type of drug

use, availability and lethality of handguns,

and presence of gangs and gang activity.

• Criminal justice system factors—including policing practices, interagency and

multijurisdictional task forces, likelihood

of punishment (actual and perceived),

and the incapacitation of young, crimeprone males.

Teams of three researchers—one specializing in each domain—conducted the site

visits during the summer of 1996.* During the 3-day visits, team members interviewed individuals and representatives

from various agencies and offices, such

as the following:

• Officials—U.S. Attorney, police chief,

sheriff, prosecutor, public defender, mayor,

city manager, chief judge, coroner.

• Federal agencies—Bureau of Alcohol,

Tobacco and Firearms; Drug Enforcement

I Administration; Federal Bureau of

Investigation.

• Local agencies and service providers—

police drug, gang, homicide, and juvenile

units; probation office; public housing

administration and security; school administration and security; emergency medical

services; community outreach and domestic violence intervention groups.

Some respondents were interviewed by

more than one team member; for example, representatives from the police

gang unit were interviewed by both the

researcher focusing on criminal justice issues and the researcher focusing on the

situational domain. After every site visit,

each researcher wrote a summary of the

interview findings; these findings were reviewed by both the team leader and an

outside expert in the particular domain.

* The hypotheses underlying each domain and the instruments used in the interviews are available from the project director.
8

R e s e a r c h i n B r i e f

between clearance rates and 1-year

lagged homicide counts (for example,

correlating clearance rates in 1985

with homicide counts in 1986). The

pattern of results strongly resembled

that between homicide and clearance

rates within a given year. For at least

some of the eight cities, decreased

clearance rates one year were followed

by increased homicide counts the next

year. One plausible interpretation is

that perpetrators were emboldened by

the decreased probability of being

caught. The cities in which this relationship held were those cities that experienced rapid homicide growth

throughout the timeframe (New Orleans and Richmond) or for part of the

timeframe, followed by decreases (Atlanta and Washington, D.C.). Comments from those interviewed in these

cities supported the belief that offenders did not expect to be caught.

Law enforcement cooperation and

homicide. Multijurisdictional task

forces and cooperative efforts, including those that involved Federal agencies, were viewed as highly effective

mechanisms for addressing criminal

activities. Identified advantages of

such programs included the ability to

cut across geographic and bureaucratic boundaries, to dedicate staff

resources, and to select the most appropriate charges and prosecution

methods. Respondents in most cities

reported excellent relations between

Federal and local authorities when

cooperating on task forces and special

issues.

Some Federal programs received special recognition from the interviewees.

Respondents in every city praised the

effectiveness of the Organized Crime

and Drug Enforcement Task Force,

which is operated out of the U.S.

Attorney’s Office. Other noteworthy

Federal programs included Project

LEAD (Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco

and Firearms), High-Intensity Drug

Trafficking Area Program (Office of

National Drug Control Policy), and

Weed and Seed (Office of Justice

Programs).

Witnesses and homicide. Two problems associated with witnesses to homicide were identified as impediments

to the work of the criminal justice system. While community policing programs are having a positive effect on

citizen involvement in fighting crime,

witness intimidation remains a significant barrier to gaining citizens’ cooperation in cases of violent crimes.

Even though the respondents reported

that few witnesses have been retaliated

against, fear of reprisal is a powerful

force for silence. Interviewees admitted that they do not have sufficient

resources for their witness protection

programs, that they cannot guarantee

such protection, and that the problem

is increasing.

Interviewees reported that a second

factor affecting witness cooperation is

that many homicide witnesses are

themselves guilty of some crime.

Naturally, these people are reluctant

to come forward with information that

could lead to self-incrimination. To

secure the cooperation of these witnesses, authorities sometimes use the

threat of sanctions to encourage the

witnesses to make a statement.

Incapacitation and homicide. All

cities reported changes in sentencing,

probation, and parole practices during

the study period. Interviews and some

limited data analyses suggested support for incapacitation efforts. Additional data collection and analyses

are planned.

Directions for Future Research

One goal of this project was to identify

avenues for further inquiry. The findings

of this research indicate that several

topics warrant further exploration, including the following:

• The connection between guns, emergency medical services, and mortality

rates.

• The connection between public

housing and homicide, as part of a

larger study of the spatial and temporal distribution of homicide.

Exhibit 6: Relationship Between Clearance Rate and Homicide Count

City Homicide Clearance Rate and Homicide Clearance Rate and

 Same-Year Homicide Count One-Year Lagged Homicide Count

 (Spearman’s rho) (Spearman’s rho)

All eight cities -0.390** -0.303**

Atlanta -0.409 -0.488

Detroit 0.150 -0.103

Indianapolis -0.406 -0.182

Miami -0.542* -0.315

New Orleans -0.591* -0.691**

Richmond -0.482* -0.409

Tampa -0.274 0.322

Washington, D.C. -0.704** -0.693**

* p < .05; ** p < .01, one-tailed
9

R e s e a r c h i n B r i e f

Findings and conclusions of the research reported here are those of the authors and do not

necessarily reflect the official position or policies of the U.S. Department of Justice.

NCJ 167263

The National Institute of Justice is a

component of the Office of Justice

Programs, which also includes the Bureau

of Justice Assistance, the Bureau of Justice

Statistics, the Office of Juvenile Justice and

Delinquency Prevention, and the Office for

Victims of Crime.

• The connection between the incapacitation and incarceration of violenceprone populations and homicide rates.

• The connection between recently

implemented community- and

problem-oriented policing programs

and violence trends in these study cities.

Further research efforts will analyze

available data for all 77 cities with a

population greater than 200,000. This

research will describe homicide victimization and arrest trends for subpopulations, assess changes in types of

homicide (for example, homicide

among intimates or family members),

and identify correlates of homicide

(such as economic factors).

NOTES

1. Source: Federal Bureau of Investigation Uniform Crime Report data, National Criminal Justice Data Archive.

2. Source: Federal Bureau of Investigation Supplemental Homicide Report

data for 1992, 1993, 1994, and 1995.

Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of

Justice, Federal Bureau of Investigation.

3. This category contained the following 21 SHR relationships: boyfriend,

girlfriend, husband, wife, common-law

husband, common-law wife, homosexual partner, ex-husband, ex-wife,

father mother, stepfather, stepmother,

son, daughter, stepson, stepdaughter,

brother, sister, in-law, and other family

member.

4. In all eight study cities, a large percentage of residents are not in the labor force and would therefore be

excluded from unemployment statistics. Therefore, the “percentage employed” was deemed a more useful

indicator of employment levels in each

city. These analyses treat the city as

This Research in Brief reports

on an intramural research project

directed by Pamela K. Lattimore,

Ph.D., Director, Criminal Justice

and Criminal Behavior Division,

Office of Research and Evaluation,

with K. Jack Riley, Ph.D., James

Trudeau, Ph.D., Jordan Leiter,

Ph.D., and Steven Edwards, Ph.D.

The authors thank Attorney General

Janet Reno, Assistant Attorney

General Laurie Robinson, Office of

Justice Programs, and NIJ Director

Jeremy Travis for their support of

this research. The authors acknowledge the contributions of DOJ staff:

Eric Baumer, Stephanie Bourque,

Stephen Holmes, Eric Jefferis,

Robert Kaminski, Nancy LaVigne,

Richard Lewis, Angela MooreParmley, Steve Shandy, and Jane

Wiseman made site visits; Thomas

Feucht, Ginger Kyle, Rosemary

Murphy, and Christy Visher reviewed materials. Gil Gee and colleagues at the FBI’s Uniform Crime

Reporting Center provided assistance with the data. The authors also

extend thanks to the many individuals in the eight study cities and two

pilot cities who gave their time and

cooperation. Finally, special thanks

go to Michael Farrell, Adele Harrell,

Michael Maxfield, Cheryl Maxson,

Richard Rosenfeld, and Margaret

Zahn for their reviews and constructive criticism. This document is

based on the report Homicide in

Eight U.S. Cities: Trends, Context,

and Policy Implications, available in

December 1997 from the National

Criminal Justice Reference Service.

Ask for NCJ 167262.

the unit of analysis and do not incorporate within-city variation in the

economic factors in question. This

approach is not very sensitive, and

failure to detect links between homicide and selected economic factors

should not be seen as evidence that

the links do not exist. In fact, preliminary analyses of within-city variation

in economic factors strongly suggest a

link to homicide. NIJ staff are conducting research to better assess this

relationship.

5. The analyses in this study looked at

homicide rates within city limits, while

DUF data are sometimes collected

from areas that do not conform to city

boundaries. Thus, the populations may

differ significantly, meaning the data

should be compared cautiously.