About the National Science and

Technology Council

President Clinton established the

National Science and Technology

Council (NSTC) by Executive Order

on November 23,1993.This cabinetlevel council is the principal means

for the President to coordinate science,space,and technology policies

across the Federal Government.The

NSTC acts as a "virtual" agency for

science and technology to coordinate

the diverse parts of the Federal

research and development enterprise.

The NSTC is chaired by the

President.Membership consists of the

Vice President,the Assistant to the

President for Science and Technology,

Cabinet Secretaries and Agency Heads

with significant science and technology responsibilities,and other senior

White House officials.

An important objective of the NSTC

is the establishment of clear national

goals for Federal science and technology investments in areas ranging

from information technology and

health research,to improving transportation systems and strengthening

fundamental research.The Council

prepares research and development

strategies that are coordinated across

Federal agencies to form an investment package that is aimed at accomplishing multiple national goals.

To obtain additional information

regarding the NSTC,contact the

NSTC Executive Secretariat at 202-

456-6100 (voice).

About the Office of Science

and Technology Policy

The Office of Science and Technology

Policy (OSTP) was established by the

National Science and Technology

Policy, Organization,and Priorities Act

of 1976.OSTP’s responsibilities

include advising the President on policy formulation and budget development on all questions in which science and technology are important

elements;articulating the President’s

science and technology policies and

programs;and fostering strong partnerships among Federal,State,and

local governments,and the scientific

communities in industry and academia.To obtain additional information

regarding the OSTP, contact the OSTP

Administrative Office at 202-456-6004

(voice).

About the Committee on

Environment and Natural

Resources

The CENR is charged with improving

coordination among Federal agencies

involved in environmental and natural resources research and development,establishing a strong link

between science and policy, and

developing a Federal environment

and natural resources research and

development strategy that responds

to national and international issues.

To obtain additional information

about the CENR,contact the CENR

Executive Secretary at 202-482-5917

(voice).

142

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

The Committee on Environment and Natural

Resources (CENR) is one of five committees

under the NSTC.

D. James Baker, Co-Chair

National Oceanic and Atmospheric

Administration

Rosina Bierbaum, Co-Chair

White House Office of Science and Technology

Policy

Ghassem Asrar

National Aeronautics and Space Administration

James Decker

Department of Energy

Roland Droitsch

Department of Labor

Albert Eisenberg

Department of Transportation

Delores Etter

Department of Defense

Terrance Flannery

Central Intelligence Agency

George Frampton

Council on Environmental Quality

Kelley Brix

Department of Veteran’s Affairs

Charles Groat

Department of the Interior

Len Hirsch

Smithsonian Institution

Kathryn Jackson

Tennessee Valley Authority

Eileen Kennedy

Department of Agriculture

Margaret Leinen

National Science Foundation

Paul Leonard

Housing and Urban Development

Norine Noonan

Environmental Protection Agency

Kenneth Olden

Department of Health and Human Services

David Sandalow

Department of State

Wesley Warren

Office of Management and Budget

Craig Wingo

Federal Emergency Management Agency

Samuel Williamson

Office of the Federal Coordinator for

Meteorology

SUBCOMMITTEES

Air Quality

Dan Albritton (NOAA), Chair

Bob Perciasepe (EPA), Vice Chair

Ecological Systems

Mary Clutter (NSF), Co-Chair

Don Scavia (NOAA), Co-Chair

Global Change

D. James Baker (NOAA), Chair

Ghassem Asrar (NASA), Vice Chair

Margaret Leinen (NSF), Vice Chair

Natural Disaster Reduction

Mike Armstrong (FEMA), Chair

John Filson (USGS), Vice Chair

Jaime Hawkins (NOAA), Vice Chair

Toxics and Risk

Norine Noonan (EPA), Chair

Bob Foster (DOD), Vice Chair

Kenneth Olden (HHS), Vice Chair
143

About the Subcommittee on

Global Change Research 

The Subcommittee on Global Change

Research (SGCR) is one of five subcommittees under the Committee on

Environment and Natural Resources

(CENR).The SGCR is charged with

improving coordination among Federal

agencies participating in the U. S.

Global Change Research Program

(USGCRP),which was established by

Congress in 1990 "to provide for development and coordination of a comprehensive and integrated United States

research program which will assist the

Nation and the world to understand,

assess,predict,and respond to humaninduced and natural processes of global

change." The NAST is grateful for the

SGCR establishing the NAST and providing oversight for its activities.To

obtain additional information regarding

the SGCR,contact the Office of the

USGCRP at 202-488-8630 (voice) or see

http://www.usgcrp.gov.

D. James Baker, Chair 

(from January 2000)

National Oceanographic and

Atmospheric Administration

Department of Commerce

Robert W. Corell,Chair (through

December, 1999)

National Science Foundation

Ghassem Asrar,Vice Chair

National Aeronautics and Space

Administration

Margaret Leinen,Vice Chair

National Science Foundation

William Sommers

U. S. Forest Service

Department of Agriculture

Mary Gant

National Institute of Environmental

Health Sciences,Department of

Health and Human Services

Charles (Chip) Groat

Department of the Interior

J. Michael Hall

National Oceanic and Atmospheric

Administration ,Department of

Commerce

Patrick Neale

Smithsonian Institution

Mark Mazur

Department of Energy

Margot Anderson

Department of Energy

Jeff Miotke

Department of State

Aristides A.Patrinos (SGCR liaison to

the NAST)

Department of Energy

Fred Saalfeld

Department of Defense

Michael Slimak

Environmental Protection Agency

Executive Office Liaisons

Rosina Bierbaum

Office of Science and Technology

Policy

Peter Backlund

Office of Science and Technology

Policy

Steven Isakowitz

Office of Management and Budget

Sarah G. Horrigan

Office of Management and Budget

Ian Bowles

Council on Environmental Quality

The National Assessment Working Group

is charged by the SGCR with overseeing

and facilitating the coordination and

preparation of national-scale assessments

to document the current state of knowledge of the consequences of global

change and their implications for policy

and management decisions for the

Nation.As such,they were the organizers

and sponsors of the regional and sectoral

assessments.

Paul Dresler 

(through December 1999),Chair

Department of the Interior

Joel Scheraga,Vice Chair

Environmental Protection Agency

Richard Ball (through November 1999),

Vice Chair

Department of Energy

Department of Agriculture

Margot Anderson (through March 2000)

Jeff Graham (through Sept.1999)

Robert House

Fred Kaiser

Department of Defense and US Army

Corps of Engineers

Thomas Nelson

Eugene Stakhiv

Department of Energy

Mitchell Baer (from November, 1999)

Jerry Elwood

Department of the Interior

Dave Kirtland

Ben Ramey

Environmental Protection Agency

Janet Gamble

National Aeronautics and Space

Administration

Anne Carlson (from Jan.2000)

Nancy Maynard (through Jan.2000)

William Turner (from April 2000)

Louis Whitsett (through Dec.2000)

National Institute of Environmental

Health Sciences

Mary Gant

National Oceanic and Atmospheric

Administration

Claudia Nierenberg

Roger Pulwarty

Caitlin Simpson

National Science Foundation

Thomas Spence

Office of Science and Technology

Policy

Peter Backlund
144

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

Lead Organizers of and Contributors

to Regional and Sectoral Workshops

and/or Assessments:

The information underpinning the

National Assessment was generated

through a series of workshops and

assessments conducted by a distributed

set of regional and sectoral teams.

These teams were organized under the

auspices of and sponsored by the

USGCRP agencies.The sponsored workshops and assessments were conducted

in an open manner and their findings

were subjected to peer review by technical experts,interested stakeholders,

other regional and sectoral teams,and

the USGCRP agencies. Final responsibility for their findings rests with the individual teams.Information was channeled to the National Assessment

Synthesis Team through a NAST liaison

to the teams.Asterisks indicate the

chair/co-chairs of the assessment

teams.The NAST is particularly grateful

for the extensive efforts of the regional

and sectoral teams.Information on the

regional and sectoral teams and their

activities is available at

http://www.nacc.usgcrp.gov. [Note:

Sectoral workshops are not listed as

many were held in conjunction with

other meetings.]

REGIONAL WORKSHOP AND

ASSESSMENT TEAMS

NORTHEAST MEGAREGION 

Eric Barron, NAST liaison

Metropolitan East Coast

Workshop and Assessment Teams 

Cynthia Rosenzweig*,National

Aeronautics and Space

Administration,Goddard Institute for

Space Studies,and Columbia

University 

William Solecki*,Montclair State

University 

Carli Paine,Columbia University

Peter Eisenberger,Columbia University

Earth Institute 

Lewis Gilbert,Columbia University

Earth Institute 

Vivien Gornitz,Columbia University

Center for Climate Systems Research

Ellen K.Hartig,Columbia University

Center for Climate Systems Research

Douglas Hill,State University of New

York,Stony Brook 

Klaus Jacob,Lamont-Doherty Earth

Observatory of Columbia University 

Patrick Kinney,Columbia University

Joseph A.Mailman School of Public

Health 

David Major, Columbia University

Center for Climate Systems Research

Roberta Balstad Miller, Center for

International Earth Science

Information Network (CIESIN) 

Rae Zimmerman,New York University

Institute for Civil Infrastructure

Systems,Wagner School 

Mid-Atlantic

(Workshop September 9-11,1997)

Ann Fisher*, Pennsylvania State

University

David Abler, Pennsylvania State

University

Eric J. Barron, Pennsylvania State

University

Richard Bord,Pennsylvania State

University

Robert Crane, Pennsylvania State

University

David DeWalle,Pennsylvania State

University

C.Gregory Knight, Pennsylvania State

University

Ray Najjar, Pennsylvania State University

Egide Nizeyimana, Pennsylvania State

University

Robert O’Connor, Pennsylvania State

University

Adam Rose, Pennsylvania State

University

James Shortle, Pennsylvania State

University

Brent Yarnal, Pennsylvania State

University

New England and Upstate New York

(Workshop September 3-5,1997)

Barry Rock*,University of New

Hampshire

Berrien Moore III*,University of New

Hampshire

David Bartlett,University of New

Hampshire

Paul Epstein,Harvard School of Public

Health

Steve Hale,University of New

Hampshire

George Hurtt,University of New

Hampshire

Lloyd Irland,Irland Group,Maine

Barry Keim,New Hampshire State climatologist

Clara Kustra,University of New

Hampshire

Greg Norris,Sylvatica Inc.,Maine

Ben Sherman,University of New

Hampshire

Shannon Spencer, University of New

Hampshire

Hal Walker, EPA,Atlantic Ecology

Division,Rhode Island

SOUTHEAST MEGAREGION 

Virginia Burkett, NAST liaison

Central and Southern Appalachians

(Workshop May 26-29,1998)

William T. Peterjohn (PI),West Virginia

University

Richard Birdsey, USDA Forest Service

Amy Glasmeier, Pennsylvania State

University

Steve McNulty,USDA Forest Service

Trina Karolchik Wafle,West Virginia

University 

Gulf Coast 

(Workshop February 25-27,1998)

Zhu Hua Ning*,Southern University

and A & M College

Kamran Abdollahi*,Southern University

and A & M College

Virginia Burkett,USGS National

Wetlands Research Center

James Chamber, Louisiana State

University

David Sailor,Tulane University

Jay Grymes,Southern Regional Climate

Center

Paul Epstein,Harvard University

Michael Slimak,US Environmenatl

Protection Agency

Southeast

(Workshop June 25-27,1997)

Ron Ritschard*,University of Alabama –

Huntsville 

James Cruise*,University of Alabama –

Huntsville

James O'Brien*,Florida State University

Robert Abt,North Carolina State

University

Upton Hatch,Auburn University

Shrikant Jagtop,University of Florida

James Jones,University of Florida

Steve McNulty, USDA Forest Service
145

MIDWEST MEGAREGION 

Tom Karl and David Easterling, 

NAST liaisons

Eastern Midwest 

(Workshop June 29-30,1998)

J. C.Randolph,Indiana University

Otto Doering,Purdue University

Mike Mazzocco,University of Illinois,

Urbana - Champaign

Becky Snedegar, Indiana University

Great Lakes 

(Workshop May 4-7,1998) 

Peter J. Sousounis*,University of

Michigan

Jeanne Bisanz*,University of Michigan

Gopal Alagarswamy, Michigan State

University

George M.Albercook,University of

Michigan

J. David Allan,University of Michigan

Jeffrey A.Andresen,Michigan State

University

Raymond A.Assel,Great Lakes

Environmental Research Laboratory

Arthur S.Brooks,University of

Wisconsin-Milwaukee

Michael Barlage,University of Michigan

Daniel G.Brown,Michigan State

University

H.H.Cheng,University of Minnesota

Anne H.Clites,Great Lakes

Environmental Research Laboratory

Thomas E.Croley II,Great Lakes

Environmental Research Laboratory

Margaret Davis,University of Minnesota

Anthony J. Eberhardt,Buffalo District,

Army Corps of Engineers

Emily K.Grover, University of Michigan

Galina Guentchev, Michigan State

University

Vilan Hung,University of Michigan

Kenneth E. Kunkel,Illinois State Water

Survey

David A.R.Kirstovich,Illinois State

Water Survey

John T. Lehman,University of Michigan

John D. Lindeberg,Center for

Environmental Studies,Economics &

Science

Brent M.Lofgren,Great Lakes

Environmental Research Laboratory

James R.Nicholas,USGS,Lansing,

Michigan

Jamie A.Picardy, Michigan State

University

Jeff Price,American Bird Conservancy

Frank H.Quinn,Great Lakes

Environmental Research Laboratory

Paul Richards,University of Michigan

Joe Ritchie,Michigan State University

Terry Root,University of Michigan

William B.Sea,University of Minnesota

David Stead,Center for Environmental

Studies,Economics & Science

Shinya Sugita,University of Minnesota

Karen Walker,University of Minnesota

Eleanor A.Waller, Michigan State

University

Nancy E.Westcott,Illinois State Water

Survey

Mark Wilson,University of Michigan

Julie A.Winkler, Michigan State

University

John Zastrow, University of Wisconsin

Additional Contributors

Stanley Changnon,Illinois State Water

Survey

GREAT PLAINS MEGAREGION 

Linda Joyce, NAST liaison

Central Great Plains 

(Workshop May 27-29,1997)

Dennis Ojima*,Colorado State

University 

Jill Lackett*,Colorado State University 

Dennis Child,Colorado State University

Alan Covich,Colorado State University

Celine Donofrio,Colorado State

University

William Easterling, Pennsylvania State

University

Kathy Galvin,Colorado State University

Luis Garcia,Colorado State University

Tom Hobbs,Colorado State

University/State of Colorado Division

of Wildlife

Martin Kleinschmit,Center for Rural

Affairs

Kathleen Miller, National Center for

Atmospheric Research

Jack Morgan,USDA Agricultural

Research Service

Bill Parton,Colorado State University

Keith Paustian,Colorado State

University

Gary Peterson,Colorado State

University

Rob Ravenscroft, rancher, Nebraska

Lee Sommers,Colorado State University

Northern Great Plains 

(Workshop November 5-7,1997)

George Seielstad*,University of North

Dakota 

Leigh Welling*,University of North

Dakota

Kevin Dalsted,South Dakota State

University

Jim Foreman,Ten Sleep,Wyoming

Robert Gough,Intertribal Council On

Utility Policy 

Janice Mattson,Precision Agriculture

Research Association

James Rattling Leaf, Sinte Gleska

University

Patricia McClurg,University of

Wyoming

Gerald Nielsen,Montana State

University

Gary Wagner, Climax,Minnesota

Pat Zimmerman,South Dakota School

of Mines and Technology

Southern Great Plains 

(Workshop May 24-25,1999)

Robert Harriss*,Texas A&M University

(currently National Center for

Atmospheric Research) 

Tina Davies,Houston Advanced

Research Center

David Hitchcock,Houston Advanced

Research Center

Gerald North,Texas A&M University

Southwest-Rio Grande River Basin

(Workshop March 2-4,1998)

Charles Groat,University of Texas-El

Paso (currently US Geological

Survey)

Honorable Silvestre Reyes,US House of

Representatives,Texas

WEST MEGAREGION 

Rich Richels, Barbara Miller and Joel

Smith, NAST liaisons

California

(Workshop March 9-11,1998)

Robert Wilkinson,* University of

California,Santa Barbara

Jeff Dozier*,University of California,

Santa Barbara

Richard Berk,University of California,

Los Angeles

Dan Cayan,Scripps Institution of

Oceanography, University of

California,San Diego

Keith Clarke,University of California,

Santa Barbara

Frank Davis,University of California,

Santa Barbara

James Dehlsen,Dehlsen Associates

Peter H.Gleick, Pacific Institute for

Studies in Development,

Environment,and Security

Michael Goodchild,University of

California,Santa Barbara

Nicholas Graham,Scripps Institution of

Oceanography / University of
146

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

California,San Diego

William J. Keese,California Energy

Commission

Charles Kolstad,University of

California,Santa Barbara

Michael MacCracken,USGCRP and

Lawrence Livermore National

Laboratory

Jim McWilliams,University of

California,Los Angeles

John Melack,University of California,

Santa Barbara

Norman L.Miller, Lawrence Berkeley

National Laboratory / University of

California,Berkeley

Harold A.Mooney, Stanford University

Peter Moyle,University of California,

Davis

Walter C.Oechel,San Diego State

University

Larry Papay, Bechtel Group

Claude Poncelet, Pacific Gas and

Electric Company

Thomas Suchanek,NIGEC / University

of California,Davis

Henry Vaux,University of California

Office of the President

James R.Young,Southern California

Edison

Rocky Mountain/Great Basin

(Workshop February 16-18,1998)

Frederic Wagner*,Utah State University

Thomas Stohlgren*,US Geological

Survey

Connely Baldwin,Utah State University

Jill Baron,US Geological Survey, Fort

Collins,CO

Hope Bragg,Utah State University

Barbara Curti,Nevada Farm Bureau,

Reno,NV

Martha Hahn, U.S.Bureau of Land

Management,Boise,ID

Sherm Janke,Sierra Club,Bozeman,MT

Upmanu Lall,Utah State University

Linda Mearns,National Center for

Atmospheric Research,Boulder,CO

Hardy Redd,Private Rancher, Lasal,UT

Gray Reynolds,Sinclair Corporation,Salt

Lake City, UT

David Roberts,Utah State University

Lisa Schell,Colorado State University

Susan Selby, Las Vegas Valley Water

District

Carol Simmons,Colorado State

University

Dale Toweill,Idaho Dept.of Fish and

Game,Boise,ID

Booth Wallentine,Utah Farm Bureau

Federation,Salt Lake City,UT

Todd Wilkinson, Journalist,Bozeman,

MT

Southwest-Colorado River Basin

(Workshop September 3-5,1997)

William A.Sprigg*,University of Arizona

Todd Hinkley*,US Geological Survey

Diane Austin,University of Arizona

Roger C.Bales,University of Arizona

David Brookshire,University of New

Mexico

Stephen P. Brown, Federal Reserve Bank

of Dallas

Janie Chermak,University of New

Mexico

Andrew Comrie,University of Arizona

Prabhu Dayal,Tucson Electric Power

Company

Hallie Eakin,University of Arizona

David C.Goodrich,US Department of

Agriculture

Howard P. Hanson,Los Alamos National

Laboratory

Laura Huenneke,New Mexico State

University

William Karsell, WAPA

Korine Kolivras,University of Arizona

Diana Liverman,University of Arizona

Rachel A.Loehman,Sandia National

Laboratories

Jan Matusak,Metropolitan Water

District of Southern California

Linda Mearns,National Center for

Atmospheric Research

Robert Merideth,University of Arizona

Kathleen Miller, National Center for

Atmospheric Research

David R.Minke,ASARCO

Barbara Morehouse,University of

Arizona

Dan Muhs,US Geological Survey

Wilson Orr, Prescott College

Thomas Pagano,University of Arizona

Mark Patterson,University of Arizona

Kelly T. Redmond,Desert Research

Institute

Paul R.Sheppard,University of Arizona

Verna Teller,Isleta Pueblo

James R.Young,Southern California

Edison

NORTHWEST

Edward A. Parson, NAST liaison

(Workshop July 14-16,1997)

Philip Mote*,University of Washington 

Douglas Canning,Department of

Ecology, State of Washington

David Fluharty,University of

Washington

Robert Francis,University of

Washington

Jerry Franklin,University of Washington

Alan Hamlet,University of Washington

Blair Henry,The Northwest Council on

Climate Change

Marc Hershman,University of

Washington

Kristyn Gray Ideker, Ross and Associates

William Keeton,University of

Washington

Dennis Lettenmaier, University of

Washington

Ruby Leung, Pacific Northwest National

Laboratory

Nathan Mantua,University of

Washington

Edward Miles,University of Washington

Ben Noble,Battelle Memorial Institute

Hossein Parandvash, Portland Bureau of

Water Works

David W. Peterson,US Geological

Survey

Amy Snover, University of Washington

Sean Willard,University of Washington

ALASKA

Edward A. Parson, NAST liaison

(Workshops June 3-6,1997 and October

29-30,1998)

Gunter Weller*,University of Alaska

Fairbanks 

Patricia Anderson*,University of Alaska

Fairbanks

Bronwen Wang*,US Geological Survey

Matthew Berman,University of Alaska

Anchorage

Don Callaway, National Park Service

Henry Cole,Hydro Solutions &

Purification LLC

Keith Criddle,Utah State University

Merritt Helfferich,Innovating

Consulting Inc.

Glenn Juday, University of Alaska

Fairbanks

Gunnar Knapp,University of Alaska

Anchorage

Rosa Meehan, U. S. Fish and Wildlife

Service

Thomas Osterkamp,University of Alaska

Fairbanks
147

COASTAL AND ISLANDS MEGAREGION 

Lynne Carter (from April 2000) and

Melissa Taylor (through March 2000),

NAST liaison

Pacific Islands 

(Workshop March 3-6,1998)

Eileen Shea*,East-West Center

Michael Hamnett*,University of Hawaii

Cheryl Anderson,University of Hawaii

Anthony Barnston,NOAA,National

Centers for Environmental Prediction

Joseph Blanco,Office of the Governor

(State of Hawaii)

Kelvin Char,Office of the Governor

(State of Hawaii) and NOAA National

Marine Fisheries Service, Pacific

Islands Area Office

Delores Clark,NOAA National Weather

Service, Pacific Region Office

Scott Clawson,Hawaii Hurricane Relief

Fund

Tony Costa, Pacific Ocean Producers

Margaret Cummisky, Office of the

Honorable Daniel K.Inouye,United

States Senate

Tom Giambelluca,University of Hawaii 

Chip Guard,University of Guam

Richard Hagemeyer,NOAA National

Weather Service, Pacific Region

Office

Alan Hilton,NOAA Pacific ENSO

Applications Center 

David Kennard,FEMA Region IX, Pacific

Area Office

Roger Lukas,University of Hawaii

Fred Mackenzie,University of Hawaii

Clyde Mark,Outrigger Hotels and

Resorts-Hawaii

Gerald Meehl,National Center for

Atmospheric Research

Jerry Norris, Pacific Basin Development

Council

David Penn,University of Hawaii 

Jeff Polovina,NOAA National Marine

Fisheries Service

Roy Price,Hawaii State Civil Defense

(retired)

Barry Raleigh,University of Hawaii

Kitty Simonds,Western Pacific Regional

Fishery Management Council

Peter Vitousek,Stanford University

Diane Zachary, Maui Pacific Center

South Atlantic Coast and Caribbean

(Workshop July 21-23,1998)

Ricardo Alvarez,International Hurricane

Center

Krishnan Dandapani,Florida

International University

Shahid Hamid,Florida International

University

Stephen Leatherman,International

Hurricane Center

Richard Olson,International Hurricane

Center

Walter Peacock,International Hurricane

Center/Laboratory for Social and

Behavioral Research

Paul Trimble,South Florida Water

Management District

NATIVE PEOPLES/NATIVE 

HOMELANDS 

Michael MacCracken, NAST liaison

(Workshop October 28-November 1,

1998)

Verna Teller,Isleta Pueblo

Robert Gough,Intertribal Council on

Utility Policy

Schuyler Houser,American Indian

Higher Education Consortium

Nancy Maynard, NASA

Fidel Moreno,Yaqui/Huichol

Lynn Mortensen,US Global Change

Research Program

Patrick Spears,Lakota

Valerie Taliman,Navajo

Janice Whitney, HETF Fiduciary

Native Peoples/Native Homelands—

Southwest

Stan Morain*,University of New Mexico

Rick Watson*,San Juan College

Diane Austin,University of Arizona

Mark Bauer, Diné College

Karl Benedict,University of New

Mexico 

Jennifer Bondick,University of New

Mexico

Amy Budge,University of New Mexico

Linda Colon,University of New Mexico

Laura Gleasner, University of New

Mexico

Jhon Goes In Center,Oglala Lakota

Nation

Todd Hinckley, US Geological Survey

Doug Isely, Diné College

Bryan Marozas,DOI Bureau of Indian

Affairs

Lynn Mortensen,US Global Change

Research Program

Verna Teller,Isleta Pueblo

Carmelita Topaha,Navajo

Ray Williamson,George Washington

University

Additional contributors

Patricia Anderson,University of Alaska

Lynne Carter, National Assessment

Coordination Office

Schuyler Houser,American Indian

Higher Education Consortium

Susan Marcus,US Geological Survey

Jeff Price,American Bird Conservancy

James Rattling Leaf, Sinte Gleska

University

George Seielstad,University of North

Dakota

Eileen Shea,East-West Center, Hawaii

Tony Socci,US Global Change Research

Program

Leigh Welling,University of North

Dakota

SECTOR 

ASSESSMENT TEAMS

AGRICULTURE

Jerry Melillo, NAST liaison

John Reilly*,Massachusetts Institute of

Technology

James Hrubovcak* (from October

1999),US Department of Agriculture

Jeff Graham*,US Department of

Agriculture (through Sept.1999)

David G.Abler, Pennsylvania State

University

Robert Brown,Battelle-Pacific

Northwest National Laboratory

Roy Darwin,US Department of

Agriculture

Steven Hollinger, University of Illinois

Cesar Izaurralde,Battelle-Pacific

Northwest National Laboratory

Shrikant Jagtap,University of FloridaGainesville

James Jones,University of FloridaGainesville

John Kimble,US Department of

Agriculture

Bruce McCarl,Texas A&M University

Linda Mearns,National Center for

Atmospheric Research

Dennis Ojima,Colorado State University

Eldor A.Paul,Michigan State University

Keith Paustian,Colorado State

University

Susan Riha,Cornell University

Norman Rosenberg,Battelle-Pacific

Northwest National Laboratory

Cynthia Rosenzweig, NASA-Goddard

Institute for Space Studies

Francesco Tubiello, NASA-Goddard

Institute for Space Studies
148

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

COASTAL AREAS AND MARINE

RESOURCES 

Virginia Burkett, NAST liaison

Donald Boesch*,University of Maryland

Donald Scavia*,National Oceanic and

Atmospheric Administration

John Field (project director),University

of Washington

Robert Buddemeier,University of

Kansas

Virginia Burkett,U. S.Geological Survey

Daniel Cayan,Scripps Institute of

Oceanography

Michael Fogarty, University of Maryland

Mark A.Harwell,University of Miami

Robert Howarth,Cornell University

Curt Mason,National Oceanic and

Atmospheric Administration

Richard A. Park,Eco-Modeling

Leonard J. Pietrafesa,North Carolina

State University

Denise Reed,University of New Orleans

Thomas Royer, Old Dominion

University

Asbury Sallenger,US Geological Survey

Michael Spranger, University of

Washington

James Titus,Environmental Protection

Agency

FORESTS 

Linda Joyce, NAST liaison

Darius Adams,Oregon State University

John Aber*,University of New

Hampshire

Steven McNulty*,US Department of

Agriculture; Forest Service

Ralph Alig,US Department of

Agriculture, Forest Service

Matthew P.Ayres,Dartmouth College

Dominique Bachelet,Oregon State

University

Patrick Bartlein,University of Oregon

Carter J. Betz,US Department of

Agriculture, Forest Service

Chi-Chung Chen,Texas A&M University

Rosamonde Cook,Colorado State

University

David J.Currie,University of Ottawa,

Canada

Virginia Dale,Oak Ridge National

Laboratory

Raymond Drapek,Oregon State

University

Michael D. Flannigan,Canadian Forest

Service

Curt Flather, US Department of

Agriculture, Forest Service

Andy Hansen,Montana State University 

Paul J. Hanson,Oak Ridge National

Laboratory

Mark Hutchins,Sno-Engineering,Inc

Louis Iverson,US Department of

Agriculture, Forest Service

Lloyd Irland,The Irland Group 

Linda Joyce,US Department of

Agriculture, Forest Service 

James Lenihan,Oregon State University

María Lombardero,Universidad de

Santiago,Lugo,Spain

Ariel E.Lugo,US Department of

Agriculture, Forest Service

Bruce McCarl,Texas A&M University

Ron Neilson,US Department of

Agriculture, Forest Service

Chris J. Peterson,University of Georgia

Sarah Shafer,University of Oregon

Daniel Simberloff, University of

Tennessee

Ken Skog,US Department of

Agriculture, Forest Service 

Brent L.Sohngen,Ohio State University

Brian J. Stocks,Canadian Forest Service

Frederick J. Swanson,US Department of

Agriculture, Forest Service

Jake F.Weltzin,University of

Tennessee

B.Michael Wotton,Canadian Forest

Service

HUMAN HEALTH 

Tom Cecich, NAST liaison

Michael A.McGeehin*,US Centers for

Disease Control and Prevention

Jonathan A.Patz*, Johns Hopkins

University School of Hygiene and

Public Health

Susan M.Bernard (project director),

Johns Hopkins University School of

Hygiene and Public Health

Kristie L.Ebi,EPRI

Paul Epstein,Harvard Medical School

Anne Grambsch,US Environmental

Protection Agency

Duane J. Gubler,US Centers for Disease

Control and Prevention

Paul Reiter,US Centers for Disease

Control and Prevention 

Isabelle Romieu,US Centers for Disease

Control and Prevention

Joan B.Rose,University of South Florida

Jonathan M.Samet, Johns Hopkins

University School of Hygiene and

Public Health

Juli Trtanj,National Oceanic and

Atmospheric Administration

WATER RESOURCES 

Katharine Jacobs, NAST liaison

D. Briane Adams*,US Geological Survey

Peter Gleick*, Pacific Institute for

Studies in Development,

Environment,and Security

Thomas O. Barnwell,US Environmental

Protection Agency

Beth Chalecki, Pacific Institute for

Studies in Development,

Environment,and Security

Joseph Dellapenna,Villanova University

Ted Engman, NASA Goddard Space

Flight Center

Kenneth D.Frederick,Resources for the

Future

Aris P. Georgakakos,Georgia Institute of

Technology

Donald R.Glaser,Water consultant

Gerald Hansler, Delaware River Basin

Commission (retired)

Lauren Hay, US Geological Survey

Bruce P. Hayden,University of Virginia

Blair Henry,The Northwest Council on

Climate Change

Steven Hostetler,US Geological Survey

Katharine Jacobs,Arizona Department

of Water Resources

Sheldon Kamieniecki,University of

Southern California

Debra S.Knopman,Center for

Environmental Economics,

Progressive Policy Foundation

Robert D. Kuzelka,University of

Nebraska-Lincoln

Dennis Lettenmaier, University of

Washington

Gregory McCabe,US Geological Survey

Judy Meyer, University of Georgia

Timothy Miller, US Geological Survey

Paul C."Chris" Milly,US Geological

Survey, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics

Laboratory

Norman Rosenberg,Battelle-Pacific

Northwest National Laboratory

Michael J. Sale,Oak Ridge National

Laboratory

Gregory E.Schwarz,US Geological

Survey
149

John Schaake,National Oceanic and

Atmospheric Administrration

Susan S.Seacrest,The Groundwater

Foundation 

Davis S.Shriner,US Forest Service

Eugene Z.Stakhiv, US Army Corps of

Engineers

David M.Wolock,US Geological Survey

Scenario Development Teams: 

As a basis for exploring the potential

consequences of climate variability and

change,information concerning climate,ecosystems,and socioeconomic

factors was assembled to assist the

regional and sectoral teams.As context

for examining potential changes,information was assembled that documented conditions in the 20th century.To

provide self-consistent estimates of

how conditions might change in the

future,simulations using state-of-the-art

computer models were used to construct plausible scenarios of the types

of conditions that might evolve during

the 21st century.Asterisks indicate team

leaders.Information on the various scenarios is available at

http://www.nacc.usgcrp.gov.

CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE 

Eric Barron*, Pennsylvania State

University

David Easterling*,NOAA National

Climate Data Center

Benjamin Felzer*,National Center for

Atmospheric Research

Tom Karl*,NOAA National Climate Data

Center

Michael MacCracken*,

USGCRP/National Assessment

Coordination Office

Richard Ball,Department of Energy

(retired)

Tony Barnston,NOAA,NCEP, Climate

Prediction Center

Denise Blaha,University of New

Hampshire

George Boer,Canadian Centre for

Climate Modelling and Analysis,

Victoria,BC

Ruth Carnell,Hadley Centre,

Meteorological Office,Bracknell,UK

Aiguo Dai,National Center for

Atmospheric Research

Christopher Daly, Oregon State

University

Hank Fisher, National Center for

Atmospheric Research

Greg Flato,Canadian Centre for Climate

Modelling and Analysis,Victoria,BC

Byron Gleason,National Climatic Data

Center

Jonathan Gregory, Hadley Centre,

Meteorological Office,Bracknell,UK

Yuxiang He,NOAA,NCEP,Climate

Prediction Center

Preston Heard,Indiana University -

Bloomington

Roy Jenne,National Center for

Atmospheric Research

Dennis Joseph,National Center for

Atmospheric Research

Tim Kittel,National Center for

Atmospheric Research

Richard Knight,NOAA National Climate

Data Center

Steven Lambert,Canadian Centre for

Climate Modelling and Analysis,

Victoria,BC

Linda Mearns,National Center for

Atmospheric Research

John Mitchell,Hadley Centre,

Meteorological Office,Bracknell,UK

James Risbey, Carnegie Mellon

University

Nan Rosenbloom,National Center for

Atmospheric Research

J.Andy Royle,US Fish and Wildlife

Service,Laurel MD

Annette Schloss,University of New

Hampshire

Joel B.Smith,Stratus Consulting

Steve Smith, Pacific Northwest National

Laboratory

Peter Sousounis,University of Michigan

David Viner, Climatic Research Unit,

Norwich,UK

Warren Washington,National Center for

Atmospheric Research

Tom Wigley, National Center for

Atmospheric Research

Francis Zwiers,Canadian Centre for

Climate Modelling and Analysis,

Victoria,BC

ECOSYSTEMS

Timothy G. F. Kittel*,National Center for

Atmospheric Research

Jerry Melillo*,Woods Hole Marine

Biological Laboratory

David S.Schimel*,Max-Planck-Institute

for Biogeochemistry, Jena,Germany

Steve Aulenbach,National Center for

Atmospheric Research

Dominique Bachelet,Oregon State

University

Sharon Cowling,Lund University,

Sweden

Christopher Daly, Oregon State

University

Ray Drapek,Oregon State University

Hank H. Fisher,National Center for

Atmospheric Research

Melannie Hartman,Colorado State

University

Kathy Hibbard,University of New

Hampshire

Thomas Hickler, Lund University,

Sweden

Cristina Kaufman,National Center for

Atmospheric Research

Robin Kelly, Colorado State University

David Kicklighter, Marine Biological

Laboratory

Jim Lenihan,Oregon State University

David McGuire,U.S.Geological Survey

and University of Alaska, Fairbanks,

AK

Ron Neilson,USDA Forest Service

Dennis S.Ojima,Colorado State

University

Shufen Pan,Marine Biological

Laboratory

William J. Parton,Colorado State

University

Louis F. Pitelka,University of Maryland

Appalachian Laboratory

Colin Prentice,Max-Planck-Institute for

Biogeochemistry, Jena,Germany

Brian Rizzo,University of Virginia

Nan A.Rosenbloom,National Center for

Atmospheric Research

J.Andy Royle, U. S.Department of the

Interior

Steven W. Running,University of

Montana

Stephen Sitch, Potsdam Institute for

Climate Impact Research,Germany

Ben Smith,Lund University, Sweden

Thomas M.Smith,University of Virginia

Martin T. Sykes,Lund University, Sweden

Hanqin Tian,Marine Biological

Laboratory

Justin Travis,Lund University, Sweden

Peter E.Thornton,University of

Montana

F. Ian Woodward,University of Sheffield,

UK

SOCIO-ECONOMIC CONDITIONS

Edward A. Parson*,Harvard University

Jae Edmonds, Pacific Northwest

National Laboratory

Ann Fisher, Pennsylvania State

University

Linda Joyce,US Forest Service,

Department of Agriculture

Barbara Miller,World Bank

M.Granger Morgan,Carnegie Mellon

University

Richard Richels,EPRI

Nestor Terlickij,NPA Data Associates
150

David Vogt,Oak Ridge National

Laboratory

Tom Wilbanks,Oak Ridge National

Laboratory

Sherry Wright,Oak Ridge National

Laboratory

Planning and Development Workshops

and Activities:

To develop the plans for the assessment

and ensure coordination among the various teams,a series of planning and

development and other coordination

activities were held.

ASPEN GLOBAL CHANGE INSTITUTE

(Aspen,CO, July 29 through August 7,

1997)

Michael MacCracken,Office of the US

Global Change Research Program

William Easterling, Pennsylvania State

University

Paul Dresler, Department of the Interior

John Katzenberger,Aspen Global

Change Institute

Melissa Taylor,US Global Change

Research Program

INTEREGIONAL FORUM

Tom Wilbanks,Oak Ridge National

Laboratory, chair

Co-chairs from all of the regions

Lynne Carter, liaison from National

Assessment Coordination Office

Paul Dresler,liaison from National

Assessment Working Group

Joel Scheraga,liaison from National

Assessment Working Group

STAKEHOLDER GUIDELINES

Tom Wilbanks,Oak Ridge National

Laboratory and National Center for

Environmental Decision-making

Research (NCEDR)

David Cash,Harvard University

Nichole Kerchner, University of

Tennessee

Robb Turner, Joint Institute for Energy

and Environment

Amy Wolfe,Oak Ridge National

Laboratory

US CLIMATE FORUM 

(Washington DC,November 12-13,

1997)

Richard Ball,Department of Energy

Susan Bassow, Office of Science and

Technology Policy

Rosina Bierbaum,Office of Science and

Technology Policy

Robert Corell,National Science

Foundation

Paul Dresler, Department of Interior

Ann Fisher, Pennsylvania State

University

David Goodrich,National Academy of

Sciences

Susan Gordon,Department of State

Blair Henry, Northwest Council on

Climate Change

Michael MacCracken,National

Assessment Coordination Office

Jerry Melillo,Marine Biological

Laboratory

Wil Orr, City of Scottsdale,Arizona

Aristides Patrinos,Department of

Energy

Joel Scheraga,Environmental Protection

Agency

George Seielstad,University of North

Dakota

Robert Shepard,Science and

Engineering Alliance

Melissa Taylor, National Assessment

Coordination Office

US NATIONAL ASSESSMENT 1998

WORKSHOP 

(Monterey CA, July 27-31,1998)

Michael MacCracken,National

Assessment Coordination Office

Melissa Taylor, National Assessment

Coordination Office

Paul Dresler, Department of the Interior

US NATIONAL ASSESSMENT 1999

WORKSHOP

(Atlanta GA,April 12-15,1999)

Tom Wilbanks,Oak Ridge National

Laboratory

Paul Dresler, Department of the Interior

Joel Scheraga,Environmental Protection

Agency

Melissa Taylor, National Assessment

Coordination Office

National Assessment Coordination

Team:

To facilitate overall coordination among

the NAST,the USGCRP agencies,and

the regional and sectoral teams,the

Subcommittee on Global Change

Research established the National

Assessment Coordination Office

(NACO) and enlisted the assistance of

others drawn from various organizations.The National Assessment

Synthesis Team expresses its appreciation for their contributions.Information

about NACO is available at

http://www.nacc.usgcrp.gov.

National Assessment Coordination

Office

Michael MacCracken,Lawrence

Livermore National Laboratory, executive director

Melissa Taylor, University Corporation

for Atmospheric Research, executive

secretary of NAST (through March

2000)

Lynne Carter, University Corporation

for Atmospheric Research,regional

liaison

Robert Cherry, University Corporation

for Atmospheric Research,administrative assistant (through March 2000)

Nakia Dawkins,AA Temps (from

November,1999)

LaShaunda Malone,University

Corporation for Atmospheric

Research, research associate and,

from Sept.1999,sectoral liaison 

Katherin Slimak,University Corporation

for Atmospheric Research,research

assistant (summers of 1998,1999)

Justin Wettstein,University Corporation

for Atmospheric Research,sectoral

liaison (through Aug.1999)

Assistance from Other Organizations

Joy Colucci,TerraComm,newsletter editor for Acclimations

Benjamin Felzer, National Center for

Atmospheric Research,coordinator

for climate scenarios 

Susan Henson,National Science

Foundation, NAST travel and SGCR

administrative support

Forrest Hoffman,Oak Ridge National

Laboratory,Web support

Lynn Mortensen,University Corporation

for Atmospheric Research,education

and outreach specialist

Mary Ann Seifert,Marine Biological

Laboratory, administrator for the

NAST co-chair

Technical and Expert Reviewers: 

The NAST is particularly grateful for the

over 300 individuals who provided very

thorough reviews and provided many

helpful comments.
151

Cover: NASA

Table of Contents:

Pages 2- 3: NASA

Pages 4- 5: NASA

Page 7: NASA

Page 9:1.Benjamin Felzer,UCAR;2.B.

Felzer, UCAR;3.©Paul Grabhorn;4.

©P. Grabhorn;5.©P. Grabhorn;6.©P.

Grabhorn;7. NASA;8.©P. Grabhorn;

9. NASA;10. NASA.

Page 10& 11:Basemap ©Clifford

Grabhorn;Coastal Communities

photo - Associated Press Laserphoto;

Extreme Events – NOAA;all other

photos - ©P. Grabhorn.

Page 12:Illustration - Melody Warford

Page 13:Temperature data from -

from M.Mann,et.al.,(1999)

Geophysical Research Letters;CO2

Data from –M.Etheridge,et.al.,

(1998) and C. D. Keeling (1999)

through the Carbon Dioxide

Information Analysis Center (CDIAC),

Oak Ridge National Laboratory

(ORNL);Carbon Emissions Data from

- R.Andres,et.al.,(2000),R.Houghton,

(1995,1996) and G. Marland,et.

al.,(1999) through the CDIAC/ORNL..

Page 15:Based on illustration of

National Climate Data Center

(NCDC).

Page 17:all – B. Felzer, UCAR.

Page 18:Based on data from NCDC.

Page 19:El Niño graphics - NOAA

Pacific Marine Environmental Lab

home page

http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/togatao/el-nino/nino-home.html#

Page 20:all – B. Felzer, UCAR.

Page 21:all – B. Felzer, UCAR.

Page 22:all – B. Felzer, UCAR.

Page 23:all – B. Felzer, UCAR.

Page 24:all ©P. Grabhorn

Page 25:photo - ©P. Grabhorn;

Distribution of Plant Communities -

based on graphic that first appeared

in R.H.Whittaker, (1970).

Communities and Ecosystems.

Macmillan.New York.

Page 26:all ©P. Grabhorn

Page 27:Changes in Vegetation

Carbon - output of the Terrestrial

Ecosystem Model (TEM) - run as part

of the VEMAP II study – J. Melillo,et.

al.,(1999) The Ecosystems Center,

Marine Biological Laboratory,Woods

Hole,MA.;all photos - ©P. Grabhorn.

Page 28 - 29:Ecosystem Models - output of the Mapped Atmosphere-PlantSoil System (MAPSS) Model,R.

Neilson,et.al.,(2000) US Dept of

Agriculture(USDA),Forest Service -

abstract appears AGU,Washington

DC, May-June.

Page 30 - 31:21st Century Growth

charts – P. Grabhorn,based on projections by Pacific Northwest National

Laboratory (PNNL) and NPA Data

Services,Inc.,in collaboration with

the National Assessment Synthesis

Team (NAST);City photo - ©P.

Grabhorn

Page 32:US Population and Growth

Trends - CIESIN, Columbia University,

based on projections by NPA Data

Services,Inc.,in collaboration with

NAST.

Page 35:Hurricanes and their

Impacts:updated by R.A.Pielke Jr.,

from P.J. Herbert,, J.D. Jarrell,and M.

Mayfield,(1996).The Deadliest,

Costliest,and Most Intense

Hurricanes of this Centur y. NOAA

Technical Memorandum NWS TPC-I.

**Page 36:California red tide photo - ;

Florida and Maine plankton bloom

satellite photos - 

Page 37:Illustration by Bill Baker and

Paul Grabhorn with content from

NAST.

**Page 38 - 39:Annual Temp charts –

B. Felzer, UCAR;Alaska Map - ;Islands

Map - ;US Map - ©C.Grabhorn.

Page 40:Map - ©C.Grabhorn

Page 41:Photos – Mt.Washington,

Barry Rock,University of New

Hampshire;Temp.and Precip Maps –

B. Felzer,UCAR;NY Storm Surge Map

- Klaus Jacobs,Lamont-Doherty Earth

Observatory of Columbia University.

**Page 42 - 43:Map - ©C.Grabhorn;

Snow Photo - American Red Cross;

Chesapeake Satellite Image - NASA

Goddard Space Flight Center,

Scientific Visualization Studio,

SeaWIFS image;Temp.and Heat Index

Maps – B. Felzer,UCAR; Percent

Salinity Change - J. Gibson and R.

Najjar, Penn State University.

**Page 44 - 45:Map -©C.Grabhorn;

Skier Photo - ;Stream Photo - ©P.

Grabhorn;Dominant Forest Types

Maps - Prasad,A.M.and L.R.Iverson.

(1999-ongoing).A Climate Change

Atlas for 80 Forest Tree Species of the

Eastern United States [database].

http://www.fs.fed.us/ne/delaware/atl

as/index.html,Northeastern Research

Station,USDA Forest Service,

Delaware,Ohio.

Page 46:Map - ©C.Grabhorn;Ghost

Forest Photo - USGS.

Page 47:Coastal Loss Map - US

Geological Survey (USGS) and

Louisiana Department of Natural

Resources;Temp.and Precip.Maps - B

Felzer, UCAR.

Page 48:Map - ©C.Grabhorn;Flooded

Community Photo - V. Burkett - USGS;

Burned House photo - USGS.

Page 49:Crop Yields - Auburn

University, Global Hydrology and

Climate Center,University of Florida,

Agricultural and Biological

Engineering Department.

Pages 50 - 51:Map - ©C.Grabhorn;

Forest Maps - USDA Forest Service,

Southern Global Change Program;

Timberland Acreage – North Carolina

State University, Department of

Forestry;Research Triangle Institute

Center for Economics Research.

Pages 52 - 53:Map - ©C.Grabhorn;

Temp.and Precip.Maps – B. Felzer,

UCAR;Barge photo - ©P. Grabhorn.

Pages 54 - 55:Map - ©C.Grabhorn;

Lake Ice Duration - John Magnuson,

University of Wisconsin; Summer

Climate Shift Maps - Don Wuebbles,

University of Illinois and compiled by

Byron Gleason NOAA,NCDC.

Pages 56 - 57:Map - ©C.Grabhorn;

Midwest Soybean Yield - Dave

GRAPHICS AND PHOTOGRAPHY SOURCES 
152

Easterling NCDC;Midwest Daily

Precip.- compliled by Byron Gleason

NOAA,NCDC.

Pages 58 - 59:Map - ©C.Grabhorn;

Temp.and Precip.Maps – B. Felzer,

UCAR;Tractor photo - ©P. Grabhorn.

Pages 60 - 61:Map - ©C.Grabhorn;

Consumptive Water Use and Irrigated

Water Use Graphics – Ojima,et.al.,

(1999). Potential climate change

impacts on water resources in the

Great Plains. JAWRA,35,1443-1454;

Palmer Drought and July Heat Maps –

B. Felzer, UCAR.

Pages 62 - 63:Map - ©C.Grabhorn;

Spotted Knapweed,Leafy Spurge,and

Yellow Starthistle Photos -

http://www.blm.gov/education/weed

/photos.html;Leafy Spurge Map -

http://www.nhq.nrcs.usda.gov/land/i

ndex/GoH.html;Soil Moisture Map –

B. Felzer,UCAR;Soil Carbon & NPP

Maps - Century results from VEMAP

analysis,Natural Resource Ecology

Lab,Colorado State University,

Pages 64 - 65:Map - ©C.Grabhorn;

Population Chart - U.S.Census

Bureau,(1998), California Trade and

Commerce Agency,(1997);California

Department of Finance,(1998),CLIMAS,(1998),NPA Data Services,Inc.,

(1999);Temp.and Precip.Maps – B.

Felzer, UCAR; Forest Fire photo - ©P.

Grabhorn.

Pages 66 - 67:Map - ©C.Grabhorn;

Water Use Chart – based on Solley, et.

al.,(1998),Diaz and Anderson,(1995),

CLIMAS,(1998),Templin,(1999);

Ecosystem Maps - output of the

MAPSS model,Neilson,et.al.,(2000)

USDA Forest Service - abstract

appears AGU,Washington DC,MayJune.

Pages 68 - 69:Map - © C.Grabhorn;

Reservoir photo - Seattle Public

Utilities Department;Temp and

Precip.Maps – B. Felzer, UCAR.

**Pages 70 - 71:Map - ©C.Grabhorn;

Columbia Streamflow - Mote,

et.al.,(1999) Impacts of climate variability and change in the Pacific

Northwest.University of Washington

– Summary;Climate Variability On

Salmon - ;Regional Impacts Chart – P.

Grabhorn adapted from Mote,

et.al.,(1999) Impacts of climate variability and change in the Pacific

Northwest.University of Washington.

Pages 72 - 73:Map - ©C.Grabhorn;

Soil Moisture Maps – B. Felzer, UCAR;

Forest photo - ©P. Grabhorn;Winter

Snow Maps – B. Felzer, UCAR;

Mountain photo - ©P. Grabhorn;

Projected Northwest Daily Precip

Change - NCDC.

**Pages 74 - 75:Map - ;Iceberg Photo

- ©P. Grabhorn;Observed Temp and

Precip - Data from Historical Climate

Network,NCDC;Precip.and Temp.

Maps – B. Felzer, UCAR.

**Pages 76 & 77:Map - ;Sea Ice

Change Maps – P. Grabhorn,based on

polar projections of Canadian model

results by B. Felzer,UCAR;Boreal

Forest Fire Chart - after Figure 1.2,pg.

2,in E.S.Kasischke and B.J. Stocks

(eds.) (2000), Fire,Climate Change,

and Carbon Cycling in the Boreal

Forest,Ecological Studies Series,New

York:Springer-Verlag,in press.Data

from Alaska Fire Service,Canadian

Fire Service; Fishing Boat photo - ©P.

Grabhorn.

**Pages 78 - 79:Map - ;Soil Moisture

and Winter Temp Maps – B. Felzer,

UCAR;Caribou and Seal photos - ©P.

Grabhorn;Vegetation Distribution

Maps - Neilson,R.P.,I.C.Prentice,

B.Smith,T.G.F. Kittel,and D.Viner

(1998).Simulated changes in vegetation distribution under global warming,Annex C in R.T.Watson,

M.C.Zinyowera,R.H.Moss and D.J.

Dokken,(eds.),The Regional Impacts

of Climate Change:An Assessment of

Vulnerability. Special report of IPCC

Working Group 2.Cambridge

University Press,pg.439-456.

**Pages 80 - 81:Maps - ;El Niño

Billboard photo - U.S.National

Weather Service, Pacific Region

Office.

**Pages 82 - 83:Beach photo - ©P.

Grabhorn; Freshwater Lens - illustration by Melody Warford ;Hurricane

Georges Map - ;Hakalau photo - ;

Coral Reef photo - ©P. Grabhorn;

Mangrove photo - ©P. Grabhorn;El

Niño Charts - James O'Brien,Florida

State University compiled by T Karl;

**Pages 84 - 85: Petroglyph photo -

©P. Grabhorn;Harvesting wild rice

photo - .

**Pages 86 - 87:Indian ruins photo - ;

Irrigable Indian lands - from "Atlas of

the New West," W.W. Norton and

Company, 1997;Salmon photo - ,

Landscape photo - ,Indian ruins

photo - .

Pages 88 - 89:All photos - © P.

Grabhorn.

Pages 90 - 91:Tractor photo - ©P.

Grabhorn;Yield Charts – Changing

Climate and Changing Agriculture:

Report of the Agricultural Sector

Assessment Team (2000).

Pages 92 - 93: Farm Photo - ©P.

Grabhorn;Yield Charts,Regional

Production Charts,and Economic

Impacts Charts - Changing Climate

and Changing Agriculture:Report of

the Agricultural Sector Assessment

Team (2000).

Pages 94 - 95:Flooded Farm photo -

©P. Grabhorn;Corn Yield Chart -

Changing Climate and Changing

Agriculture: Report of the Agricultural

Sector Assessment Team (2000);

Ranch photo - ©P. Grabhorn.

Pages 96 - 97:Water photo - ©P.

Grabhorn;Water Withdrawal Chart –

based on Solley, et.al.,(1998) USGS

Circular 1200.Estimated Use of Water

in the United States in 1995;

Snoqualmie Pass Illustration – M.

Warford;Columbia Basin Snow Extent

– Mote,et.al.,(1999) Impacts of climate variability and change in the

Pacific Northwest,University of

Washington;Winter Snow Cover Maps

– Redrafted from data presented in

McCabe, G.J.;Wolock, D.M.(1999)

General-circulation-model simulations

of future snowpack in the western

United States. JAWRA,v 35,1473-

1484.

GRAPHICS AND PHOTOGRAPHY SOURCES 
153

Pages 98 - 99:Wetland photo - ©P.

Grabhorn; Palmer Drought Maps – B.

Felzer, UCAR,Observed Changes

Chart - NCDC.

**Pages 100 - 101:Flooded House

photo - ©P. Grabhorn;National Daily

Precip.Chart – NCDC;Summer

Stream Temp.Chart -;Prairie Pothole

photo - ;Groundwater Recharge

photo – Orange County Water

District;CAP Canal photo - ©K.

Jacobs;Subsidence photo - ©K.

Jacobs.

Pages 102 - 103:Boys and Water

photo - ©P. Grabhorn;Heat Index

Maps – B. Felzer, UCAR;Heat Related

Deaths - Chicago – NOAA;Present

and Projected Heat Deaths Chart -

Data from Kalkstein and Greene

(1997). The three climate scenarios

used in the study were GFDL,UKMO,

and Max-Planck,1985 runs using the

IPCC transient scenario without

aerosols.

Pages 104 - 105:NY City photo - ©P.

Grabhorn;Maximum Daily Ozone

Chart –EPA;Atlanta photos - ©P.

Grabhorn.

Pages 106 - 107:Albuquerque photo -

©P. Grabhorn;Dengue Map - data

from Mexican Ministry of Health and

CDC; Potential Health Effect Chart -

Patz et al.,2000

Pages 108 - 109:Coastal photo - ©P.

Grabhorn;Coastal Vulnerability Map -

USGS,Coastal Geology Program;

Ocean Circulation Chart - Illustration

by Melody Warford adapted from

Broecker (1991) Nature 315:21-26;

Sea Bird photo - ©P. Grabhorn.

Pages 110 - 111:Coral Reef photo -

©P. Grabhorn;Marsh Elevation

Illustration - Illustration by Melody

Warford based on original figure by

USGS,National Wetlands Research

Center;US Coastal Lands at Risk

Chart – US EPA (1989).The Potential

Effects of Global Climate Change on

the United States. EPA # 230-05-89-

050;Temp and CO2 Stresses Data

Chart –Wiley Encyclopedia of Global

Environmental Change (in press) and

Kleypas et.al.,(1999) Science 284:

118-120 with background photo - ©

P. Grabhorn;Bleached Coral photo –

NOAA photo library;Calcium carbonate maps - Kleypas, J.A.,R.W.

Buddemeier, et al.(1999).

Geochemical consequences of

increased atmospheric carbon dioxide on coral reefs.Science,284(2

April 1999):118-120. The Reebase

reefs were not shown on that map,

but the juxtaposition of those reefs to

the saturation state data was portrayed and discussed in Kleypas, J.A.,

J.W. McManus,et,al.,(1999).

"Environmental limits to coral reef

development:Where do we draw the

line?" American Zoologist 39(1):146-

159.

Pages 112 - 113:Storm photo -

Associated Press Laserphoto;Sea

Level Rise Projections and Maps – B.

Felzer, UCAR;Annual Shoreline

Change Map - USGS,Coastal Geology

Program.

Pages 114 - 115: Forest photo - ©P.

Grabhorn;Current Distribution Map -

Data are from USDA Forest Service

http://www.srsfia.usfs.msstate.edu/rp

a/rpa93.htm; Forest Land Percentages

Chart - Data are from Forest Service

Resource Bulletin PNW-RB-168, Forest

Resource Report No.23,No.17,No.

14,the Report of the Joint Committee

on Forestry, 77th Congress 1st

Session,Senate Document No.32.

Data for 1850 and 1870 were based

on information collected during the

1850 and 1870 decennial census,data

for 1907 were also based on the

decennial census modified by expert

opinion,reported by R.S. Kellog in

Forest Service Circular 166.Data for

1630 were included in Circular 166

as an estimate of the original forest

area based on the current estimate of

forest and historic land clearing information. These data are provided here

for general reference purposes only

to convey the relative extent of the

forest estate in what is now the US at

the time of European settlement

(USDA Forest Service in review).

Pages 116 - 117: Foliage photo - ©P.

Grabhorn; Forest Fire Fighter photo -

©P. Grabhorn;Dominant Forest Types

Maps - Prasad,A.M.and L.R.Iverson.

(1999-ongoing).A Climate Change

Atlas for 80 Forest Tree Species of the

Eastern United States [database].

http://www.fs.fed.us/ne/delaware/atl

as/index.html,Northeastern Research

Station,USDA Forest Service,

Delaware,Ohio.

Pages 118 - 119: Tree photo - ©P.

Grabhorn;Change in Forestry Welfare

Chart and Projected Average Timber

Price Chart - Irland,L.C., D.Adams,R.

Alig,C. J. Betz,C.Chen,M.Mutchins,

B.A.McCarl,K.Skog,and B.W.

Sohngen (2000).Assessing socioeconomic impacts of climate change on

U.S.forests, wood product markets,

and forest recreation,Bioscience,(in

press);Tree photo - ©P. Grabhorn.

Pages 126- 127:Earth Image – NASA;

Water photo - ©P. Grabhorn.

Pages 128 - 129:Maps - ©C.

Grabhorn;Invasive Species photos -

http://www.blm.gov/education/weed

/photos.html;all other photos - ©P.

Grabhorn.

Page 131:Hurricane Image - NASA.

Page 141:Earth with Hurricane Image

- NOAA.

Scientific Writing and Editing:

Susan J. Hassol

Design,Layout and Production:

Grabhorn Studio
154

CO2Fertilization Effect

Increase in rate of plant growth due to increasing carbon dioxide

concentration in the atmosphere; occurs because plants use the

carbon in CO2to build their tissues, as long as sufficient water

and nutrients are present

El Niño

Periodic warming of surface ocean water in the eastern equatorial

Pacific that affects weather patterns around the world

El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

The phenomenon of periodic changes in sea surface temperature

in the equatorial Pacific made up of the warm El Niño phase and

the cool La Niña phase

Eutrophication

Over-nourishing of algae in lakes (due to agricultural and urban

runoff and other sources of nutrients) that depletes the water of

oxygen to the detriment of other living things

La Niña

Periodic cooling of surface ocean water in the eastern equatorial

Pacific that affects weather patterns around the world

Managed Ecosystems

Ecosystems that are maintained by substantial human inputs of

energy and materials (such as fertilizer and water); examples

include agriculture, forest plantations, and fish farms

Net Primary Productivity (NPP)

The net amount of carbon fixed by green plants through the

process of photosynthesis

Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)

Recently-discovered pattern of climate variation that changes

phase every few decades and affects weather patterns in the

Pacific Northwest, Alaska, and Pacific Islands

Subsidence

Sinking of land surface caused by natural factors such as tectonic

shifts or by human activities such as groundwater withdrawals or

oil and gas extraction

Tundra

Treeless plains in the arctic and subarctic regions in which the

ground below the surface is frozen year-round

Taiga

Swampy, coniferous subarctic evergreen forest extending south

from the tundra

Tropical Storms and Cyclones

Tropical storms originate over tropical oceans and have sustained winds

between 30 and 73 miles per hour. If their sustained winds exceed 73

miles per hour, they become tropical cyclones. Tropical cyclones are

known as hurricanes if they are in the North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean

Sea, Gulf of Mexico, or in the Eastern North Pacific (east of the dateline); they are known as typhoons if they are outside of these areas

(west of the dateline).

Vector

An organism, such as a mosquito or tick, that directly transmits a disease such as malaria, dengue, or Lyme disease

Abbreviations

GtC: Gigatonnes of carbon (billions of metric tons)

SST: Sea surface temperature

Models

CGCM1: version 1 of the Canadian Global Coupled Model from the

Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis. In this report, the

results from this model are referred to as the Canadian model scenario.

DOE PCM: Department of Energy Parallel Climate Model

ECHAM4/OPYC3: Developed by Max-Plank-Institut fur Meteorologie

(MPI) and Deutsches Klimarechenzentrum (DKRZ, translated as

German Climate Computing Center), the name ECHAM comes from the

first two letters of ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range

Weather Forecasts) and the first three letters of Hamburg. The name

OPYC is short for Ocean and isoPYCnal coordinates.

GFDL: Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory

HadCM2: version 2 of the Hadley Centre Coupled Model from the

Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research of the United

Kingdom Meteorological Office. In this report, the results from this model

are referred to as the Hadley model scenario.

MAPSS: Mapped Atmosphere-Plant-Soil System

NCAR CSM: National Center for Atmospheric Research Climate System

Model

PnET: Photosynthesis and evapotranspiration model

TEM: Terrestrial Ecosystem Model

VEMAP: Vegetation/Ecosystem Modeling and Analysis Project

GLOSSARY