Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight

OE ENERGY

MARKET SNAPSHOT

National – Data Through May 2017

Office of Enforcement

Federal Energy Regulatory Commission

June 2017
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight

2017 Summer Assessment

2
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight

Natural Gas Futures Rise

Relative to Coal

Source: Price data from NYMEX & ICE; Power burn from Bentek Energy

Note: Shading denotes prices are futures and power burn is a forecast
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight

Natural Gas Prices Rise 

Compared to Previous Summer

Source: NYMEX & ICE
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight

Summer Basis Swaps Narrow 

between Marcellus and Markets

Source: NYMEX
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight

Reserve Margins Adequate

in Most Regions

Source: NERC
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight

August 21 Solar Eclipse

Source: California ISO
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight

National Slides

8
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight 9

NOAA June 2017 Through August 2017 Outlook
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight

2181

Pitts

burgh

Boston

Calgary

City Location

Chicago

NYC

Oklahoma

City

Los Dallas

Angeles

Sacra

mento Denver

Portland

Houston New 

Orleans Miami

Vancouver

This Year

Last Year

5 Year Average

Cumulative HDDs by City

Nov 2016– Mar 2017

Source: Bloomberg Weather (daily data summed quarterly)

Atlanta

Updated

10

Jun-2017

 19

 74

 71

3,937

3,757

4,342

 558

 837

 984

4,202

3,989

4,591

2,490

2,597

2,873

1,226

1,586

1,854

 549

 810

1,073

3,552

3,069

3,229

4,054

4,443

4,353

2,082

1,876

1,891

3,434

2,866

3,002

2,095

1,984

1,909

3,574

3,060

3,659

4,167

3,686

4,134

 720

 740

 730

1,880

2,060

2,387
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight

2181

Pitts

burgh

Boston

Calgary

City Location

Chicago

NYC

Oklahoma

City

Los Dallas

Angeles

Sacra

mento Denver

Portland

Houston New 

Orleans Miami

Vancouver

This Year

Last Year

5 Year Average

Cumulative CDDs by City

Apr 2017 – May 2017

Source: Bloomberg Weather (daily data summed quarterly)

Atlanta

Updated

11

Jun-2017

 59

 30

 39

 84

 97

 96

 924

 812

 846

 67

 58

 95

 752

 554

 578

 52

 94

 106

 160

 157

 213

 484

 384

 449

 564

 561

 558

 2

 -

 1

 6

 3

 23

 0

 -

 -

 38

 40

 23

 124

 140

 139

 190

 98

 122

 291

 198

 231
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight

$ = Average 2016/2017 Spot Price*

% Decrease from year prior

% Increase from year prior

*Average On-Peak Day-Ahead from November to March

SPP Price is an average of the North and South Hubs 

Source: RTO/ISO and ICE Data

NP 15

Palo Verde

Mid- Columbia Indiana 

Hub

SPP South

ERCOT

North

PJM West

NYISO ZJ

Mass Hub

SOCO

Nov2016-Mar2017 Spot Power Prices 

($/MWh)

$24.97

31%

$33.64

19%

$23.85

17%

$34.43

31%

$29.74

36%

$24.80

20%

$28.70

18%

$40.8

24%

$39.76

26%

$33.52

7%

21
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight

2181

Columbia

TCO

Algonquin

Citygate

AECO 

Pricing Point

BOLD – This Year

Green – % increase from 

previous year

Red – % decrease from 

previous year

Chicago

Citygate

Transco

Z6-NY

NGPL

Tex-Okla

El Paso

Permian

SoCal 

Border

PG&E

Citygate

CIG

HSC Henry 

Hub

FGT-Z3

Spot Natural Gas Prices Average ($/MMBtu)

Nov 2016 – Mar 2017

Source: ICE Updated

13

Jun-2017

$4.63

31% $3.36

33%

$2.97

33%

$2.63

0%

$3.01

34%

$3.00

32%

$2.89

34% $2.76

32%

$2.98

35%

$2.15

29%

$2.79

33%

$3.33

29%

$2.92

30%
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight 14
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight

U.S. NG Supply and Demand 

Nov 2015 – Mar 2016 vs Nov 2016 – Mar 2017

National Natural Gas Market Overview: U.S. Supply and Consumption

Note: Balance includes all amounts not attributable to other categories.

Source: Derived from Bentek Energy data 2163

15

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2015/2016 2016/2017

Average Daily Volume (Bcfd)

US Natural Gas Supply

LNG Imports

Net Pipeline Imports

Net Dry Gas

Production

-10.2%

-1.1%

-2.1%

Total Change in Supply -1.9%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2015/2016 2016/2017

Average Daily Volume (Bcfd)

US Natural Gas Demand

Power 

Generation

Total Change in Demand

Industrial

-2.8%

Residential/ 

Commercial

-12.6%

1.8%

3.7%

Updated Jun-2017
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight

National Natural Gas Market Overview: Canadian Imports

Regional Imports from Canada

Source: Derived from Bentek Energy data

(2)

0

2

4

6

8

10

Jan-11

May-11

Sep-11

Jan-12

May-12

Sep-12

Jan-13

May-13

Sep-13

Jan-14

May-14

Sep-14

Jan-15

May-15

Sep-15

Jan-16

May-16

Sep-16

Jan-17

Bcfd

Northwest Net Imports

Midwest Net Imports

Northeast Net Imports

16

Updated Jun-2017
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight

Total U.S. Natural Gas Demand All Sectors

National Natural Gas Market Overview: Total US Gas Demand

Source: Derived from Bentek Energy data, derived from interstate pipeline flow and modeled data. 20009

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Bcfd

2012-16 Range

2017

17

Updated Jun-2017
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight

U.S. Natural Gas Consumption for Power Generation

National Natural Gas Market Overview: NG Consumption for Power Generation

Source: Derived from Bentek Energy data 20024

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

MMcfd

 2012 - 2016 Range

2017

18

Updated Jun-2017
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight

EIA National Storage Inventories

National Natural Gas Market Overview: Natural Gas Storage Inventory

Source: Derived from Bloomberg Data

Notes:

Updated

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar

Storage (Bcf)

5 Year Range 2017-2018 2016-2017

Jun-2017

19
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight

EIA Regional Storage Inventories

National Natural Gas Market Overview: Natural Gas Storage Inventory

Source: Derived from Bloomberg Data

Notes:

Updated Jun-2017

20

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200 EAST

0

500

1,000

1,500 WEST

0

100

200

300

Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar

5 Year Range 2017-2018 2016-2017

PRODUCING

0

100

200

300

400

500 PACIFIC

0

500

1,000

1,500

SOUTH CENTRAL
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight

Monthly U.S. Dry Gas Production – Lower 48 States

National Natural Gas Market Overview: Monthly U.S. Dry Gas Production

Note: Prior to July 2010, chart was derived from a combination of EIA and Bentek Energy data

Source: Derived from Bentek Energy data 20021

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Bcfd

Dry Production

21

Updated Jun-2017
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight

Rigs by Type

National Natural Gas Market Overview: Rig Count by Type

Source: Derived from Bloomberg data

Notes:

Updated

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

Jun-15

Sep-15

Dec-15

Mar-16

Jun-16

Sep-16

Dec-16

Mar-17

Jun-17

Baker Hughes Rig Count (Rigs)

Oil Rigs Gas Rigs

22

Jun-2017
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight

Competing Fuels

National Natural Gas Market Overview: Competing Fuels

Source: Derived from Bloomberg data

Notes:

Updated

$0

$2

$4

$6

$8

$10

$12

$0.0

$0.5

$1.0

$1.5

$2.0

$2.5

$3.0

$3.5

$4.0

$4.5

Jun-15

Aug-15

Oct-15

Dec-15

Feb-16

Apr-16

Jun-16

Aug-16

Oct-16

Dec-16

Feb-17

Apr-17

Jun-17

Converted Oil Price ($/MMBtu) 

Gas and Converted Coal Price ($/MMBtu)

Nymex Henry Hub

Big Sandy Barge (Low Sulfur Coal)

WTI Crude Oil

Jun-2017

23
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight

Daily Gas Sendout from Existing U.S. LNG Facilities

National Natural Gas Market Overview: LNG Market-Daily Gas Sendout

Notes: Everett data includes flows onto the AGT and TGP interstate lines, plus estimates of flows to the Mystic 7 power plant, Keyspan Boston 

Gas, and LNG trucked out of the terminal. Excludes flows to the Freeport LNG which flows via intrastate pipelines and flows to the Mystic 8 and 

9 power plants.

Source: Derived from Bentek Energy data 3007

24

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

Daily LNG Sendout (MMcfd)

Sabine Pass

Lake Charles

Golden Pass

Freeport

Northeast Gateway

Excelerate

Cameron

Elba Island

Cove Point

Everett (Grossed)

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000 Monthly Average

Updated Jun-2017
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight

Source: Waterborne Energy, Inc. Data in $US/MMBtu

Note: Includes information and Data supplied by IHS Global Inc. and its affiliates (“IHS”); Copyright (publication year) all rights reserved.

Landed prices are the monthly average of weekly trades from the prior month.

World LNG Estimated Landed Prices: May 2016 

National Natural Gas Market Overview: World LNG Landed Prices

Cove Point

$4.50

India

$11.55

UK

$8.75

Spain

$9.05

Belgium

$8.84

Japan

$12.40

Korea

$12.40

Lake Charles

$3.96 Altamira

$4.60

Cove Point

$4.40

India

$11.55

UK

$8.75

Spain

$9.15

Belgium

$8.99

Japan

$13.10

Korea

$13.10

Lake Charles

$3.93 Altamira

$4.57

Cove Point

$4.50

India

$11.55

UK

$8.75

Spain

$9.05

Belgium

$8.84

Japan

$12.40

Korea

$12.40

Lake Charles

$3.96 Altamira

$4.60

Cove Point

India

UK

Spain

Belgium

Japan Korea

Lake Charles

Altamira

Rio de Janeiro

Bahia Blanca

Canaport

China

25

Updated Jun-2017

$3.25

$ 5.61 $ 5.49

$ 5.64 $ 5.64

$4.91

$3.13

$ 5.28

$ 3.31

$4.81

$ 5.08

$ 5.33

$ 5.47
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight

Historical and World Gas Futures Prices

National Natural Gas Market Overview: LNG Competitive Price Hubs

Source: Derived from Bloomberg data 

Notes:

Updated Jun-2017

$0

$2

$4

$6

$8

$10

$12

Jun-15

Aug-15

Oct-15

Dec-15

Feb-16

Apr-16

Jun-16

Aug-16

Oct-16

Dec-16

Feb-17

Apr-17

Jun-17

Aug-17

Oct-17

Dec-17

Feb-18

Apr-18

Jun-18

$/MMBtu

Henry Hub TZ6 NY

Algonquin Citygates UKNBP

Japanese LNG Spot Price Futures Prices

26
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight

National Natural Gas Market Overview: WTI vs Brent Oil Price

Source: Derived from Bloomberg data Updated

WTI vs Brent Crude Oil Price

Jun-2017

$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

Oil Prices ($/Barrel)

WTI Oil Price Brent Crude Oil Price

27
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight

National Natural Gas Market Overview: Nymex Futures Curve

Source: Derived from Bloomberg data Updated

Nymex Futures Curves

$2.60

$2.80

$3.00

$3.20

$3.40

$3.60

$3.80

Jul-17

Sep-17

Nov-17

Jan-18

Mar-18

May-18

Jul-18

Sep-18

Nov-18

Jan-19

Mar-19

May-19

Jul-19

Sep-19

Nov-19

Nymex Futures Curves ($/MMBtu)

6/15/2017 5-18-2017

1-15-2017 6-15-2017

Jun-2017

28
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight

Infrastructure Report

29

Office of Energy Projects Energy 

Infrastructure Update

http://www.ferc.gov/legal/staff-reports.asp

(see “Energy Infrastructure” tab) 
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight

Natural Gas Highlights

30
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight

Electric Generation Highlights

31
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight

Electric Transmission Highlights

32
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight

Installed Generating Capacity

33