Energy Prices and Discount Factors

for Life-Cycie Cost Anaiysis 1 990

Annual Supplement to Barbara C Lippiatt

NBS Handbook 135 and Rosalie T. Ruegg

MBS Special Publication 709

85 - 3273-4

1990

Department of Energy

y Management Program

Department of Commerce

ute of

I Technology

onal Bureau
NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF STANDARDS &

TECI-iNOLOGY

Research Monnatk® Center

Gaitliersburg, MD 20899
NISTIR 85-3273-4

(Rev. 5/90)

. ^

ENERGY PRICES AND DISCOUNT FACTORS

FOR LIFE-CYCLE COST ANALYSIS 1990

Annual Supplement to NBS Handbook 135 and

NBS Special Publication 709

(Data for the Federal Methodology for Life-Cycle Cost Analysis, TitlelO, CFR, Part 436, Subpart A)

Barbara C. Uppiatt

Rosalie T. Ruegg

U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

National Institute of Standards and Technology

(Formerly National Bureau

of Standards)

Applied Economics Group

Center for Computing and

Applied Mathematics

Gaithersburg, MD 20899

May 1990

Prepared for: U.S. Department of Energy

Office of the Assistant Secretary for

Conservation and Renewable Energy

Federal Energy Management Program

Washington, DC 20585

U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE, Robert A. Mosbacher, Secretary

NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF STANDARDS AND TECHNOLOGY, John W. Lyons, Director
:'ft:' V' ^ ,ai«v>fa^A ffev '•.,, j,- : ai 'M '
PREFACE

This is the 1990 edition of energy prices and discount factors for life-cycle

cost analysis as established by the U.S. Department of Energy (DoE) in

Subpart A of Part 436 of Title 10 of the Code of Federal Regulations (10 CFR

Part 436, Subpart A), which is entitled "Federal Energy Management and

Planning Program" (FEMP) . The data are provided as an aid to implementing

life-cycle cost evaluations of potential energy conservation and renewable

energy investments in existing and new federally owned and leased buildings.

Life-cycle cost evaluations of energy conservation and renewable energy

investments in Federal buildings are required by Section 381(a)(2) of the

Energy Policy and Conservation Act (EPCA) , as amended, 42 U.S.C, 6361(a)(2);

by Section 10 of Executive Order 11912, as amended by Executive Order 120003;

and by Title V of the National Energy Conservation Policy Act (NECPA) , 92

Stat. 3275, as amended by Section 405 of the Energy Security Act, 94 Stat.

611, and by the Federal Energy Management Improvement Act of 1988

(P.L. 100-615).

As called for by legislation, the National Institute of Standards and

Technology (formerly National Bureau of Standards) has provided technical

assistance to the U.S. Department of Energy in formulating the life-cycle

costing methods and procedures for implementation. It has developed this

report as the second of a three-volume set which together provide the methods,

data, and computational tools for life-cycle cost analysis of Federal energy

proj ects

.

Included in the three-volume set for Federal life-cycle cost analysis are the

following:

( 1 ) Life-Cycle Costing Manual for the Federal Energy Management Program . National Bureau of Standards, Handbook 135 (revised 1987).

The manual is a guide to understanding life-cycle costing and related methods

of economic analysis as they are applied to Federal decisions. It describes

the required procedures and assumptions, defines and explains how to apply and

interpret economic performance measures, gives examples of Federal decision

problems and their solutions, and provides worksheets and other computational

aids and instructions for calculating the required measures.

(2) EnerEV Prices and Discount Factors for Life-Cycle Cost Analysis . National Institute of Standards and Technology, NISTIR 85-3273

(updated annually)

.

This report, which is updated annually, giyes the energy price and discount

factor multipliers needed to estimate the present yalue of energy and other

future costs. The data are based on energy price projections deyeloped by the

Energy Information Administration of the U.S. Department of Energy. Request

the latest edition when ordering.

iii
( 3 ) A User's Guide to the Federal Building Life-Cycle Cost (FBLCC) Computer

Program . National Bureau of Standards, NBS TN 1222 (Computer program

revised periodically).

This report is a user's guide to the computer program, "FBLCC.” FBLCC,

designed to run on an IBM PC/XT/AT, or compatible microcomputer, can be used

to calculate the life-cycle costs, net savings, and savings -to -investment

ratios of Federal energy projects, consistent with the procedures and

assumptions described in Handbook 135 (see #1 above) and incorporating the

energy price data of the most recent issue of NISTIR 85-3273 (see #2 above).*

FBLCC generates reports which summarize the assumptions and results in tabular

form. Information for ordering the FBLCC computer program disk is provided in

the User's Guide.

To order any of these publications, contact;

Advanced Sciences, Inc.

2000 North 15th Street

Suite 407

Arlington, VA 22201

Telephone (703) 243-4900

Please request the publication by name and mxmber.

The life-cycle costing methods and procedures set forth in 10 C.F.R., Part

436, Subpart A, are to be followed by all Federal agencies, unless

specifically exempted, in evaluating the cost effectiveness of potential

energy conservation and renewable energy investments in federally owned and

leased buildings.

Though aimed specifically at supporting the economic evaluation of Federal

building projects which are classified as energy conservation or renewable

energy projects, the three-volume set can also be used to perform economic

evaluations of Federal building projects which are not primarily for

conserving energy or providing renewable energy but which have an energy cost

component. Both applications are explained in Handbook 135.

*FBLCC Version SE2.3 incorporates the 1990 energy price data contained in

NISTIR 85-3273-4.

IV
The U.S. Department of Energy was also directed by legislation and executive

order to make available to the private sector the methods, procedures, and

related aids developed for Federal use. In response to this directive, the

National Institute of Standards and Technology, under sponsorship by the U.S.

Department of Energy, has published an additional life-cycle costing book for

use by the private sector entitled Comprehensive Guide for Least -Cost Energy

Decisions . NBS SP 709 (January 1987). The private sector book is also

supported by the data provided here, as well as by a special version of the

computer program adapted to private sector analysis ("NBSLCC")- This report

may be ordered from Advanced Sciences, Inc. at the above address. Information

for ordering the NBSLCC computer disk is provided in NBS SP 709.

Workshops on the life-cycle costing method and energy analysis are conducted

at locations around the country each year. Scheduled in 1990 are 3 -day

workshops at the following locations:

The workshops include training and software for both the Federal and private

sector life-cycle cost computer programs and for an energy analysis computer

program, "A Simplified Energy Analysis Method (ASEAM)". To register, write

the GSA Training Center at P.O. Box 15608, Arlington, VA 22215.

An introduction to the workshop is provided in a new video training film,

"Least-Cost Energy Decisions: An Introduction to Life-Cycle Cost Analysis."

The video film and companion workbook can be ordered from Video Transfer,

Inc., 5709-B Arundel Avenue, Rockville, MD 20852, Tel (301) 881-0270.

Further information on the Federal Energy Management Program can be obtained

from the Federal Energy Management Program Staff, Office of the Assistant

Secretary for Conservation and Renewable Energy, U.S. Department of Energy.

Please direct communication to: FEMP, CE 10.1, U.S. Department of Energy,

1000 Independence Avenue, SW, Washington, DC 20585.

Tampa , FL

Houston, TX

Albuquerque , NM

Anchorage , AK

Portland, ME

April 3-5, 1990

May 15-17, 1990

June 12-14, 1990

July 10-12, 1990

August 14-16, 1990

V
NOTICE

Please note that amendments to the Federal Methodology for Life-Cycle Cost

Analysis, Title 10, CFR, Part 436, Subpart A are pending. (See the Notice of

Proposed Rulemaking, Federal Register . Part IV, January 25, 1990.) Principal

regulatory changes are for DoE to establish annually a market-based discount

rate in place of the 7% rate that has been in effect since passage of the 1980

Energy Security Act and to provide a more effective system for revising

annually the energy cost escalation rates Federal agencies are required to use

.

The proposed changes require that the discount rate set by DoE and the

supporting tables of discount factors for use in life-cycle cost analysis be

issued at the beginning of each fiscal year in this Annual Supplement (NISTIR

85-3273) to the Life Cycle Costing Manual for the Federal Energy Management

Program (NBS Handbook 135)

.

The regulatory changes are expected to become

final near the beginning of Fiscal Year 1991, and this 1990 edition of the

Annual Supplement is expected to be replaced at that time.

vi
ABSTRACT

This is the 1990 annual edition of energy prices and discount factors for

performing life-cycle cost analyses of energy conservation and renewable

energy projects. It supports the Federal life-cycle costing methodology as described in NBS Handbook 135 (HB 135) and private sector life-cycle cost

analysis as described in NBS Special Publication 709 (SP 709). Tables A, B,

and C are revisions of appendices A, B, and C, respectively, of HB 135.

Tables A (7%) , Ba, and C apply to Federal energy conservation and renewable

energy projects. Tables A (10%), Bb, and C apply to Federal projects that

require energy price forecasts but are not primarily energy conserving.

Tables S, in the last section of this report, are revisions to appendix B,

Part I of SP 709 and are provided for the convenience of private sector

analysts wishing to make use of Federal energy price forecasts.

Vll
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

The authors wish to thank Mr. Richard W. Brancato, Director of the Federal

Energy Management Program, and Mr. Dean DeVine, also of the Federal Programs

Office, for their continued support and direction of this work.

Appreciation is also extended to Dr. Richard D. Farmer, former Chief of the

Supply Analysis and Integration Branch of the Energy Information

Administration, and Mr. Michael D. Lehr, of the Supply Analysis and

Integration Branch, for providing energy price projections and escalation

rates

.

viii
CONTENTS

Page

PREFACE iii

ABSTRACT vii

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS viii

CONTENTS ix

LIST OF TABLES . x

SINGLE PRESENT WORTH AND UNIFORM PRESENT WORTH DISCOUNT FACTORS .... 1

MODIFIED UNIFORM PRESENT WORTH DISCOUNT FACTORS FOR FEDERAL USE ... . 5

1990 AVERAGE FUEL PRICES, PROJECTED AVERAGE FUEL PRICE INDICES, AND

PROJECTED AVERAGE FUEL PRICE ESCALATION RATES FOR FEDERAL USE- 18

PROJECTED AVERAGE FUEL PRICE INDICES FOR PRIVATE SECTOR USE 37

ix
LIST OF TABLES

A-1 .

A-2.

B-la.

B-2a.

B-3a.

B-4a.

B-5a.

B-lb.

B-2b.

Page

SPW factors for finding the present value of future nonfuel,

nonannually recurring amounts .... 3

UPW factors for finding the present value of future nonfuel,

annually recurring amounts ^

UPW* discount factors adjusted for average fuel price

escalation, by end-use sector and major fuel. Discount

rate = 7 percent. Census Region 1 (Maine, New Hampshire,

Vermont, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Rhode Island, New York,

New Jersey, Pennsylvania) ^

UPW* discount factors adjusted for average fuel price

escalation, by end-use sector and major fuel. Discount

rate = 7 percent. Census Region 2 (Ohio, Indiana, Illinois,

Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, Missouri, North Dakota,

South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas) ... 9

UPW* discount factors adjusted for average fuel price

escalation, by- end-use sector and major fuel. Discount

rate = 7 percent. Census Region 3 (Delaware, Maryland,

District of Columbia, Virginia, West Virginia, North

Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Kentucky,

Tennessee, Alabama, Mississippi, Arkansas, Louisiana,

Oklahoma, Texas) 10

UPW* discount factors adjusted for average fuel price

escalation, by end-use sector and major fuel. Discount

rate = 7 percent. Census Region 4 (Montana, Idaho, Wyoming,

Colorado, New Mexico, Arizona, Utah, Nevada, Washington,

Oregon, California, Alaska, Hawaii) 11

UPW* discount factors adjusted for average fuel price

escalation, by end-use sector and major fuel. Discount

rate = 7 percent. United States average 12

UPW* discount factors adjusted for average fuel price

escalation, by end-use sector and major fuel. Discount

rate = 10 percent. Census Region 1 (Maine, New Hampshire,

Vermont, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Rhode Island, New

York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania) 13

UPW* discount factors adjusted for average fuel price

escalation, by end-use sector and major fuel. Discount

rate = 10 percent. Census Region 2 (Ohio, Indiana,

Illinois, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, Missouri,

North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas) 14

X
LIST OF TABLES (continued)

B-3b.

B-4b.

B-5b.

C.

Ca-1

.

Ca-2.

Ca-3 .

Ca-4.

Page

UPW* discount factors adjusted for average fuel price

escalation, by end-use sector and major fuel. Discount

rate = 10 percent. Census Region 3 (Delaware, Maryland,

District of Columbia, Virginia, West Virginia, North

Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Kentucky,

Tennessee, Alabama, Mississippi, Arkansas, Louisiana,

Oklahoma, Texas) 15

UPW* discount factors adjusted for average fuel price

escalation, by end-use sector and major fuel. Discount

rate = 10 percent. Census Region 4 (Montana, Idaho,

Wyoming, Colorado, New Mexico, Arizona, Utah, Nevada,

Washington, Oregon, California, Alaska, Hawaii) 16

UPW* discount factors adjusted for average fuel price

escalation, by end-use sector and major fuel. Discount

rate = 10 percent. United States average 17

Regional and U.S. Average 1990 fuel prices, by end-use

sector and major fuel .............. 20

Projected average fuel price indices tied to the value of

the dollar in 1990, by end-use sector and major fuel.

Census Region 1 (Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont,

Massachusetts, Connecticut, Rhode Island, New York, New

Jersey, Pennsylvania) 22

Projected average fuel price indices tied to the value of

the dollar in 1990, by end-use sector and major fuel.

Census Region 2 (Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, Michigan,

Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, Missouri, North Dakota, South

Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas) 24

Projected average fuel price indices tied to the value of

the dollar in 1990, by end-use sector and major fuel.

Census Region 3 (Delaware, Maryland, District of Columbia,

Virginia, West Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina,

Georgia, Florida, Kentucky, Tennessee, Alabama, Mississippi,

Arkansas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, Texas) 26

Projected average fuel price indices tied to the value of

the dollar in 1990, by end-use sector and major fuel.

Census Region 4 (Montana, Idaho, Wyoming, Colorado, New

Mexico, Arizona, Utah, Nevada, Washington, Oregon,

California, Alaska, Hawaii) 28

XI
LIST OF TABLES (continued)

Ca- 5 .

Cb-1

.

Cb-2.

Cb-3 .

Cb-4.

Cb-5.

S-1.

S-2.

Page

Projected average fuel price indices tied to the value of

the dollar in 1990, by end-use sector and major fuel.

United States average .... ......... 30

Projected average fuel price escalation rates exclusive of

general price inflation, by end-use sector and major fuel

(percentage change compounded annually) , Census Region 1 (Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, Massachusetts, Connecticut,

Rhode Island, New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania) ...... 32

Projected average fuel price escalation rates exclusive of

general price inflation, by end-use sector and major fuel

(percentage change compounded annually) . Census Region 2

(Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota,

Iowa, Missouri, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska,

Kansas) ........................... 33

Projected average fuel price escalation rates exclusive of

general price inflation, by end-use sector and major fuel

(percentage change compounded annually) . Census Region 3 (Delaware, Maryland, District of Columbia, Virginia, West

Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Florida,

Kentucky, Tennessee, Alabama, Mississippi, Arkansas,

Louisiana, Oklahoma, Texas) 34

Projected average fuel price escalation rates exclusive of

general price inflation, by end-use sector and major fuel

(percentage change compounded annually) . Census Region 4

(Montana, Idaho, Wyoming, Colorado, New Mexico, Arizona,

Utah, Nevada, Washington, Oregon, California, Alaska,

Hawaii) ......... 35

Projected average fuel price escalation rates exclusive of

general price inflation, by end-use sector and major fuel

(percentage change compounded annually) . United States

average 36

Projected average fuel price indices with assumed general

price inflation rates of 0, 2.5, 5, and 7.5 percent, by end- use sector and major fuel. Census Region 1 (Maine, New

Hampshire, Vermont, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Elhode

Island, New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania) 40

Projected average fuel price indices with assumed general

price inflation rates of 0, 2.5, 5, and 7.5 percent, by end- use sector and major fuel. Census Region 2 (Ohio, Indiana,

Illinois, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, Missouri,

North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas) 42

xii
LIST OF TABLES (continued)

S-3. Projected average fuel price indices with assumed general

price inflation rates of 0, 2.5, 5, and 7.5 percent, by end- use sector and major fuel. Census Region 3 (Delaware,

Maryland, District of Columbia, Virginia, West Virginia,

North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Kentucky,

Tennessee, Alabama, Mississippi, Arkansas, Louisiana,

Oklahoma, Texas)

S-4. Projected average fuel price indices with assumed general

price inflation rates of 0, 2.5, 5, and 7.5 percent, by end- use sector and major fuel. Census Region 4 (Montana, Idaho,

Wyoming, Colorado, New Mexico, Arizona, Utah, Nevada,

Washington, Oregon, California, Alaska, Hawaii)

S-5. Projected average fuel price indices with assumed general

price inflation rates of 0, 2.5, 5, and 7.5 percent, by enduse sector and major fuel. United States average

Page

44

46

48

xiii

SINGLE PRESENT WORTH AND UNIFORM PRESENT WORTH DISCOUNT FACTORS

Table A-1 of this section presents the single present worth (SPW) factors for

finding the present value of future nonfuel, nonannually recurring amounts,

such as repair and replacement costs and salvage values. The formula for

finding the present value (P) of a future amount (F) is the following;

1 P = F X = F X SPWj, Factor,

(1+d)”

where d = Discount rate; and

N = Number of discount or compound interest periods; in this case the

number of years until F occurs.

Table A-2 presents uniform present worth (UPW) factors for finding the present

value of future nonfuel amounts recurring annually, such as routine

maintenance costs. The formula for finding the present value (P) of an annually recurring uniform amount (A) is the following:

(l+d)N -1

P = A X = A X UPWjj Factor,

d(l+d)^

where N = the number of discount or compound interest periods; in this case

the number of years over which A recurs

.

In each table the factors are given for both 7 percent and 10 percent

discount rates. The factors based on 7 percent are for finding the present

value of future amounts associated with Federal energy conservation and

renewable energy projects. The factors based on 10 percent are for finding

the present value of future amounts associated with most other Federal

projects (except those specifically exempted from the 10 percent rate). Both

the 7 and 10 percent rates are defined for Federal use to be "real" rates

exclusive of general price inflation. The factors are applied as multipliers

to future amounts which are stated in "constant" dollars, that is, exclusive

of general price inflation.

Examples of How to Use the Factors;

SPW(7%) : To compute the present value of a replacement cost in the 8th year

for an energy efficient heating system, go to table A-1, find the 7 percent

SPW factor for year 8 (0.58), and multiply by the replacement cost.

SPW(10%): To compute the present value of a repair cost in the 5th year for a floor covering (non-energy related), go to table A-1, find the 10 percent SPW

factor for year 5 (0.62), and multiply by the repair cost.

UPW(7%): To compute the present value of an annually recurring maintenance

cost for a renewable energy system over 20 years, go to table A-2, find the 7 percent UPW factor for 20 years (10.59), and multiply by the annual

maintenance cost.

1
UPW(10%): The compute the present value of annually recurring costs of office

cleaning over 30 years (for a project not primarily related to energy

consumption), go to table A-2, find the 10 percent UPW factor for 30 years

(9.43), and multiply by the annual cleaning cost.

For further explanation of the use of these factors, see NBS Handbook 135,

section 2.5.

2
Table A-1. SPW factors for finding the present value of

future nonfuel, nonannually recurring amounts

Number of Years

Until Future Amount SPW Factor SPW Factor

Occurs (N) (d = 0.07) (d = 0.10)

1 0.93 0.91

2 0.87 0.83

3 0.82 0.75

4 0.76 0.68

5 0.71 0.62

6 0.67 0.56

7 0.62 0.51

8 0.58 0.47

9 0.54 0.42

10 0.51 0.39

11 0.48 0.35

12 0.44 0.32

13 0.41 0.29

14 0.39 0.26

15 0.36 0.24

16 0.34 0.22

17 0.32 0.20

18 0.30 0.18

19 0.28 0.16

20 0.26 0.15

21 0.24 0.14

22 0.23 0.12

23 0.21 0.11

24 0.20 0.10

25 0.18 0.09

* * * Extended Series * * *

26 0.08

27 0.08

28 0.07

29 0.06

30 0.06

3
Table A-2. UPW factors for finding the present value of

future nonfuel, annually recurring amounts

Number of Years

Over Which Amount

Recurs (N)

UPW Factor

(d = 0.07)

UPW Factor

(d = 0.10)

1 0.93 0.91

2 1.81 1.74

3 2.62 2.49

4 3.39 3.17

5 4.10 3.79

6 4.77 4.36

7 5.39 4.87

8 5.97 5.33

9 6.52 5.76

10 7.02 6.14

11 7.50 6.50

12 7.94 6.81

13 8.36 7.10

14 8.75 7.37

15 9.11 7.61

16 9.45 7.82

17 9.76 8.02

18 10.06 8.20

19 10.34 8.36

20 10.59 8.51

21 10.84 8.65

22 11.06 8.77

23 11.27 8.88

24 11.47 8.98

25 11.65 9.08

* * • Extended Series * * *

26 9.16

27 9.24

28 9.31

29 9.37

30 9.43

4
MODIFIED UNIFORM PRESENT WORTH DISCOUNT FACTORS FOR FEDERAL USE (BASED ON

FEDERALLY REQUIRED DISCOUNT RATES OF SEVEN AND TEN PERCENT AND DOE-PROJECTED

RATES OF CHANGE IN ENERGY PRICES, BOTH OF WHICH EXCLUDE GENERAL PRICE

INFLATION)

This section presents "modified” uniform present worth (UPW* ) discount factors

for the 4 Census regions and for the United States. The factors are modified

in the sense that they incorporate projected energy price changes. There are

two sets of tables: the "a" tables present UPW* factors based on a seven

percent "real" discount rate (i.e., a discount rate exclusive of the rate of

general price inflation) , and the "b" tables present UPW* factors based on a ten percent real discount rate. The factors presented in the "a" tables are for energy costs or savings accruing over 1 to 25 years and are to be used in

life-cycle cost analyses of Federal energy conservation and renewable energy

projects. The factors presented in the "b" tables are for energy costs or savings accruing over 1 to 30 years and are to be used for life-cycle cost

analysis of the energy component of Federal projects that are not primarily

for conserving energy or providing renewable energy. The energy price

projections underlying the UPW* factors are stated as annual averages.

Therefore , the factors are not tied to a particular calendar date in the

year

.

The UPW* factors incorporate rates of change in energy prices computed from

indices projected by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the U.S.

Department of Energy. Documentation on the PC-AEO model used by EIA to

project energy prices is available in PC-AEO Forecasting Model for the Annual

Energy Outlook 1990 (DOE/EIA-M036(90) ) , March 1990. Assumptions underlying

the PC-AEO model are presented by EIA in Assumptions for the Annual Energy

Outlook 1990 (DOE/EIA 0527(90)), February 1990. Projections at the national

level are reported by EIA in the Annual Energy Outlook 1990 (DOE/EIA0383(90)), January 1990.

The formula for finding the present value (P) of future energy costs or savings is the following:

^ 1 990+n ) P = Aq X 2 = Aq X UPW*jj Factor,

n=l (1+d)"

where A^

n

N

I

( 1 9 9 0 +n

)

d

Base-year dollar cost of energy, i.e., the annual quantity of

energy times its 1990 price;

Counter used to designate each year, with n=l for the year 1991;

Number of discount or compound interest periods; in this case the

number of years over which energy costs or savings accrue;

Projected average fuel price index given in tables Ca-1 through

Ca-5 for the year 1990+n; and

Discount rate.

5
Examples of How to Use UPW* Factors:

UPW*(7%): To compute the present value of heating with distillate oil for an energy- conserving design of a Federal office building in New Mexico for 15

years, go to table B-4a, find the UPW* factor for commercial distillate for

15 years (11.80), and multiply by the annual heating cost in 1990 dollars.

UPW* (10%) : To compute the present value of electricity costs over 30 years

associated with rehabilitating a Federal office building in Ohio (where energy

conseirvation is not a primary objective), go to table B-2b, find the UPW

factor for commercial electricity for 30 years (9.46), and multiply by the

annual electricity cost in 1990 dollars.

For further explanation of the use of UPW* factors, see NBS Handbook 135,

section 2.5.

Note: The data in the tables which follow are now reported by 4 Census

regions. Prior to the 1988 edition, regional data were presented by 10 DoE

regions. Figure B-1 presents a map showing the states corresponding to the 4

Census regions. The Census regions do not include American Samoa, Canal Zone,

Guam, Puerto Rico, Trust Territory of the Pacific Islands, or the Virgin

Islands. Analysts of Federal projects in these areas should use data which

are "reasonable under the circumstances," and may refer to the U.S. average

data for guidance

.

6
WEST

MIDWEST

NORTHEAST

(Region

4)

(Region

2)

(Region

1) 7

Source:

U.S.

Bureau

of

the

Census
Table

B-1a.

UPW*

discount

factors

adjusted

for

average

fuel

price

escalation

by

end-use

sector

and

major

fuel.^

Discount

rate = 7

percent

Census

Region 1

(Maine,

New

Hampshire,

Vermont,

Massachusetts,

Connecticut,

Rhode

Island,

New

York,

New

Jersey,

Pennsylvania)

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Table

B-2a.

UPW*

discount

factors

adjusted

for

average

fuel

price

escalation

by

end-use

sector

and

major

fuel.^

Discount

rate =7

percent

Census

Region 2

(Ohio,

Indiana,

Illinois,

Michigan,

Wisconsin,

Minnesota,

Iowa,

Missouri,

Norti

Dakota,

Souffi

Dakota,

Nebraska,

Kansas)

05<0<Oo

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Table

B-3a.

UPW*

discount

factors

adjusted

for

average

fuel

price

escalation

by

end-use

sector

and

major

fuel. ^

Discount

rate = 7

percent

Census

Region 3

(Delaware,

Maryland,

District

of

Columbia,

Virginia,

West

Virginia,

North

Carolina,

South

Carolina,

Georgia,

Florida,

Kentucky,

Tennessee,

Alabama,

Mississippi,

Arkansas,

Louisiana,

Oklahoma,

Texas) z C\i CO in CO h- 00 <35 o T- CVI CO O' in CO h- 00 05 o T— CVI CO •O'

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12
Table

B-1

b.

UPW*

discount

factors

adjusted

for

average

fuel

price

escalation

by

end-use

sector

and

major

fuel.

Discount

rate

=10

percent

Census

Region

1

(Maine,

New

Hampshire,

Vermont,

Massachusetts,

Connecticut,

Rhode

Island,

New

York,

New

Jersey,

Pennsylvania)

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I

13
Table

B-2b.

UPW*

discount

factors

adjusted

for

average

fuel

price

escalation

by

end-use

sector

and

major

fuel.

Discount

rate

=10

percent

Census

Region 2

(Ohio.

Indiana,

Illinois,

Michigan,

Wisconsin,

Minnesota,

Iowa,

Missouri,

North

Dakota,

Sourii

Dakota,

Nebraska,

Kansas) z T- CVJ CO O’ in CO rv 00 05 o t— CVJ CO in CO |v 00 05

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14
Table

B-3b.

UPW*

discount

factors

adjusted

for

average

fuel

price

escalation

by

end-use

sector

and

major

fuel.

Discount

rate

=10

percent

Census

Region 3

(Delaware,

Maryland,

District

of

Columbia,

Virginia,

West

Virginia,

North

Carolina,

South

Carolina,

Georgia,

Florida,

Kentucky,

Tennessee,

Alabama,

Mississippi,

Arkansas,

Louisiana,

Oklahoma,

Texas) <

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17
1990 AVERAGE FUEL PRICES, PROJECTED AVERAGE FUEL PRICE INDICES, AND PROJECTED

AVERAGE FUEL PRICE ESCALATION RATES FOR FEDERAL USE (INDICES AND ESCALATION

RATES EXCLUDE GENERAL PRICE INFLATION)

Table C presents average 1990 fuel prices for the 4 Census regions and for the

United States. Use these prices as default values for 1990 fuel prices only

if you do not know actual fuel prices.

Tables Ca-1 through Ca-5 of this section present projected average fuel price

indices for the 4 Census regions and for the United States. These are multipliers which when applied to the 1990 prices provide estimates of the

corresponding future-year prices in 1990 dollars. Note that the resulting

price estimates are in constant dollars, exclusive of general price inflation.

Constant dollar prices are needed when discounting is performed with discount

rates which do not include general price inflation.

Example of How to Use the Indices:

To estimate the price of industrial steam coal in year 2005 in Connecticut,

go to table Ca-1, find the year 2005 index for industrial steam coal (1.15),

and multiply by the 1990 price for industrial steam coal in Connecticut. The

result will be given in 1990 dollars.

Tables Cb-1 through Cb-5 present the projected average fuel price escalation

rates (percentage change compounded annually) for five five-year periods from

1990 to 2015 for the 4 Census regions and for the United States. Note that

these are "real" rates exclusive of general price inflation. Their use results in prices expressed in constant dollars.

The escalation rates consolidate the information provided by the indices in

the Ca tables so that trends in projected price changes can be seen at a glance. They are provided primarily to accommodate those who use computer

programs which require escalation rates as inputs.

Unless there is a compelling reason to use escalation rates, it is

recommended that you use the indices in the Ca tables to estimate future -year

energy prices, since the indices include year-to-year information rather than

averages over a number of years, and are easier to use.

Example of How to Use the Escalation Rates

:

To estimate the price of residential distillate in 1998 (pgs) in Wyoming using

the escalation rates, go to table Cb-4 and find the 1990-1995 and 1995-2000

escalation rates for residential distillate (2.88% and 3.46% per year,

respectively) . Assuming the actual 1990 price of residential distillate is

unknown, go to table C and find the default 1990 price (Pgg) for Census

region 4 ($5 . 88/miliion Btu) . Enter these values into the following formula

and solve for the 1998 energy price (stated in 1990 dollars)

:

P98 = P90 X (1 + e^)’^! X (1 + 62)^2>

= $5.88 X (1 + 0.0288)5 x (1 + 0.0346)5 = $7.50

18
where e^ = Annual compound escalation rate for period i from the Cb tables

(in decimal form); and

= Number of years over which escalation rate e^ occurs.

For further explanation of how to use these tables, see NBS Handbook 135,

appendices C and G.

Note: The data in the tables which follow are now reported by 4 Census

regions. Prior to the 1988 edition, regional data were presented by 10 DoE

regions. Figure B-1 presents a map showing the states corresponding to the 4

Census regions. The Census regions do not include American Samoa, Canal Zone,

Guam, Puerto Rico, Trust Territory of the Pacific Islands, or the Virgin

Islands. Analysts of Federal projects in these areas should use data which

are "reasonable under the circumstances," and may refer to the U.S. average

data for guidance.

19
Table C. Regional and U.S. Average 1990 fuel prices

by end-use sector and major fuel ^

(1 990 $/million Btu)

Sector and Fuel CENSUS REGION U.S.

1 2 3 4 Average

Residential

Electricity 24.85 24.31 23.59 18.87 23.11

Distillate Fuel 6.52 5.76 6.39 5.88 6.36

Liquefied Petroleum Gas 10.72 7.95 10.26 10.12 9.28

Natural Gas 5.64 5.64 5.64 5.64 5.64

Commercial

Electricity 22.81 22.00 21.72 19.23 21.45

Distillate Fuel 5.38 4.79 4.71 4.60 4.98

Residual Fuel 2.95 2.37 2.45 2.21 2.66

Natural Gas 4.89 4.89 4.89 4.89 4.89

Steam Coal 1.69 1.87 1.36 1.45 1.66

Industrial

Electricity 12.78 14.91 15.79 12.50 14.50

Distillate Fuel 4.75 4.69 4.52 4.52 4.59

Residual Fuel 2.98 2.33 2.66 2.00 2.60

Natural Gas 3.13 3.13 3.13 3.13 3.13

Steam Coal 1.73 1.48 1.67 1.78 1.61

Transportation

Motor Gasoline 8.80 8.81 8.62 8.77 8.73

Regional fuel prices are based on an assumed 1990 world oil price of $1 7.49/barrel.

20
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T- T— T- 7— 7— 7— 7— 7— 7— 1* 7— 7— 7— «rCVJ 00 T“ o T* o o CO C35 Tj- o q q q q q q q q q q q q T*

7— T— 7— T* 1— T— 7- T— T“ 7

7— 7— 7— 1— o in CO o o en in CVJ CO hq T* q q o T- CVJ CVJ o o 1* CVJ o q

T— T— T— T“ T- t— r- 1— 1— T“ 1— rCVJ o in CVJ CO 05 CO o y~~ 00 00 CVJ in q r-; q q o T- CVJ o O CO o q 1— ir- 1— 1— 1— T- T- •r- r- T1— o CO 00 7- CVJ o o CJ5 o in CVJ q q q q o O r- CVJ o o O CO o q

T- T- r- T~ t* T- T- -T— 1— T“

CVJ o CO 7— CO CVJ 7— 05 o CO CVJ CO CVJ 00

qqqqqqqqqq

qq

qqq

T- 7— 7— 7— T- 7— 7- 1— CP 7— 7— 7— 7“ 7— c>

CO

O CVJ CO CVJ 00 o 05 CO CVJ 05 CVJ Nq q q q q q q q q q q <35 q p <35 7“ CP CP CP T“ <3 o o o o o o o o o o o O o o O q q q q q q q q q q q q q p q 7- •r- 7- 7— 7— 7— 7— T- T“ 7— 7— 7

7— T- 7“ P3

CO

C5Pw

CO

‘£3 CPP•55 P

OC P3

•= P

CO

CO 0E3P9p

a.op

COa0

CO IS P

UJ

Q P _ 3 3

a- to '3 Z ®

®

— 3 3 ”55 rt ^ U. LL P 2

's 1 2 « 5 e - = = i I I 2 1 ® i I Q lij o a: z 0 ®

® /A 3 3 W os

_ LL LL rt P I t 2 1 “ O £ ^ -g 5 E P o £3 ‘55 2

•g 2 .2 P p 9 C UJ O CC Z 0 P c c

•Sp

p 2P o 0 ^ O

II

22

Projected

world

oil

price

indices

(1990 =

1.00)

Oil

Price

Assumption

1.00

0.96

0.98

1.07

1.15

1.21

1.30

1.40

1.50

1.59

1.65

1.73

1.79
1 in 1 05 0 r«- C35 U5 T- CO T* CO 0 LO T* 05 1 1 0 CO C35 0 00 0 CM 05 CO CO 111 0CVJ 111 CM CM CM CM 1 'd' 1 05 00 0 10 C35 CO 00 0" 0 CO CM 05 00 1 1 0 to CO C35 0 00 CO 0 CM T- 05 CO CO CM O' 111 0CVJ 111

T“ CM CM T“ CM CM 0 1 CO 1 05 C35 CO 05 , M" CM 00 •cf CM CO 00 1 1 0 C£> CM 05 0 00 CO 0 7— C35 CO 10 CM

0) 1 0CVJ 1 7— CM cvi 7*“ cvi cvi T“ £ 1 o

t:

n\ o 'c5' EDC

•S 1 CVJ 1 05 U5 00 y— (Ji 05 0 0 CO 05 05 LO 10 CO c 1 1 0 CO CM tJi 0 CO 0 7— 7— 00 CM 10 CM 0

'i5 % 5 111 0

CVJ 111

T“ CM CM *“ *" cvi cvi

V) 0 sco § 1 1“ 1 00 00 CJ5 05 hN 00 00 CO CM CO LO 0o

'5c 2u 1111 0CVJ 1111 q

T“

qqqq

N

q

cvi

q - qq

cvi

LO

cvi

q 0 m (0

<0 ,o 1 0 1 00 CM CO <35 U5 CO 10 CO LO CM 00 CO

v; 1 T* 1 0 CO CM 00 0 N CM C35 T— 00 CM 'O’ CM O’ 11 0CVJ 11 b cvi b b cvi CM b

a 3 1 1

fu" 0 o oo

•C

0.533 1 05 1 00 0 CO 00 CO Oi 0 CM CO CM 00 0 CM S §

§) ^

•Si 1s

'^S

Q-C 111 f ! 0

CVJ

00 11111 q

T”

00

q

T“

fV.

CVi 7“ q

T”

00

q

T“

00

q

C35

cm’

10

q

T—

10 7“

CO

q

00

cvi 0;cvi

q

<35 7” §0 o

05

05

T“

LL0

05

cd

r* 1 i i 0

CVJ 1111 q LO

T“

qqqq

cvi

q - - q

cm’

q

cvi 7~ o0 c <3J c

W.0 1 1 1 N 05 CM 00 CO 0 00 0 CM LO C35 rv 05 > 0 1 0 U5 T" N- 0 to r-. r— T— 0 CM CO

O0 iS

“5 1 <00 ^ 11 0CM 111 CM cvi cvi T“

XJ o u 1 to 1 CM r>. r» 00 CO 10 CM 05 y-~ LO CO Q.6 0£

c: 1 0

'2

Q. 1111 0

CM 1111 q

q - qq

T“

qq

cvi hq -

IV.

q

cvi cvi

q 03 o 1 1 in 1 r- 05 U5 U5 00 05 0 C35 00 CM rv. 00 T“ LO LO CCo 035

<0

Oc

c: p 1111 00CM 1111 q 0; -

to

qq 0

cm"

q

q - q

T“

q

cvi - q

u CJ 1 1 h* CO CO T“ 1^ U5 10 10 00 CM CO O' * 1 0 1 0 O" CO 0 U5 C35 CO 0 y— CO 05 0 CO T“1 0O 111 0CM 111

7“ T" CM 7“ 1 CO 1 to CO T- CO CM C35 0 0 C35 00 to CM CM 0 1 0 1 0 Tf 10 0 LO 00 CO 0 LO 00 C75 T~ CO n 11 0CM T“ t2 7“ T- T- 7” T“ r- 0 1 1 11 11 00 1 1 0 11 11 E 1 1 3 1 03 1 0 1 1 0 0 11 LL 0 0

a.

T30

IC= 03

CT

Natural

Gas 0 0

Natural

Gas 0 "0

Natural

Gas

CQ c 111111

T3C0

L_00

CO i11111111

Residential

Electricity 3

LL

-<00

•5Wb

Commercial

Electricity

Distillate

Fu 3

LL

"03

T3

(35 0

CC

Steam

Coal

Industrial Electricity

Distillate

Fu

Residual

Fu

Steam

Coal •43 0ec01- 0

CD

L-002

23

Projected

world

oil

price

indices

(1990 =1. 00)

Oil

Price

Assumption

1.85

1.90

1.96

2.01

2.07

2.11

2.15

2.20

2.24

2.27

2.30

2.34

2.38
Table

Ca-2.

Projected

average

fuel

price

indices

tied

to

the

value

of

the

dollar

in1

990, by

end-use

sector

and

major

fuel

Census

Region 2

(Ohio,

Indiana,

Illinois,

Michigan,

Wisconsin,

</> oo

T5Coo

•C

a.q3 o 3 O

U-O II O)

ca o ^< C.

T3

(Uo

(U 'o

CM 1 T“ Ifi CVJ CO r- CO lO o CO lO CM CM Oi O 1i o CM <3 iq C3 cq <3 q q q q CM

CM 11 >- T“ T-^ 1-^ T-^ cvi T-^ T-* cvi y- 1- Tr- 1 CM a) CO o lO CO O" O) CM h- CO oo 1 q O; q CM q q q q q <y> q q q q

CM 111 C3 V" o 1 o C3) CJ) in CO 1^ CO 00 O) o lO o 1 q q q T“ C3) 0; q q q Oi 00 CO q

CM 1 T- 1- T- C3 T- 1- T- T- C3 T- 1- T- T- TO) 1 O) lO in in CM 00 o CO CD CO 0> CM O) CM

O)

O) 1 O)

qq 0;

qqq O) o;

qqq

T“ 11 <3 1-^ T-^ 6 4

T— 1-^ C3 T— T“ T— T~ T-^

00 1 00

O CO 00 CO h* in CM in h* 00 yit 00

CD 1 C3i CO o C7i CO CO 1—

O C3i CO CO in o

O) 111 C3

d T“ T“

d T“ T—

1^ 1 00 CO CM o CM CO

Oi 1 Oi CM

OO Oi CO in o Oi CO in o T- 0> 11 <3 r- T- d 1- T- T- f” d y- T“ r- 1-

CO 1 Oi o I— in 00 O’ CM 00 CO in CO CO CO o

Oi 1 Oi

qq

q Oi

qqq CJiqq T“ Oi 11 d V“ y— d 1-^ T-^ T“ T-^ d T-‘ 1-^ 1^

in 1 Oi CO o CM Oi Oi T-* o h. CJi h- in r- Oi 1 Oi o O Oi T“ CO o o CJi 1— CO CO o o o> 111 d d r" d T“ 1 Oi CM o o 00 O’ CO CM o CO in O" CO in

Oi 1 Oi r- o o Oi T" CM

O o Oi T— CM CO o o

0) i1 d <- 1-

d T“ r“ T“d 1- 1- T- 1- T”

CO 1 Oi 00 o 00 00 CJi CO o o CO CJi CO o y&

CJi 1 CJi o o CJi CJi o o o Oi o T- CO

O o o 11 d T- 1- d d 1- 1- 1- 1- d T- 1- 1- ir“

CM 1 o CM o o CO CM CJi CJi 00 CO CM 00 CO 00

o> 1 q

qq Oiqqq CJi CJi CJiqqqq Oi

0) 111 d T— T“ 4

ddd T“d 1 CJi o IN. CJi CM c» CJi CJi CO CM 00 CO CO IN. o> 1 CJi q q Oi CJi q Oi Oi q CJi q CJi q q CJi 0) 11 d 1-^ d d T-" d d d d T— d r— 1-^ d o 1 o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o Oi

Oi 11 q

qq

q o q

q o o q o o o o q 1 T— T-^ T“ T-^ T-^ T— .T-: J-1 T~

24

Projected

world

oil

price

indices

(1990 =

1.00)

Oil

Price

Assumption

1.00

0.96

0.98

1.07

1.15

1.21

1.30

1.40

1.50

1.59

1.65

1.73

1.79
Table

Ca-2,

continued.

Projected

average

fuel

price

indices

tied

to

the

value

of

the

dollar

in

1990,

by

end-use

sector

and

major

fuel

Census

Region 2

(Ohio,

Indiana,

Illinois,

Michigan,

Wisconsin,

Minnesota,

Iowa,

Missouri,

Nortii

Dakota,

South

Dakota,

Nebraska,

Kansas)

V)

<ao6coo ooo oCVi oCVJ

CO

T“oCVJ

CMOCMO

CMOCM

OiOO

CM

00O

CMooCM

COooCM

toooCMoo

CM

COooCM

to 03 CM CM to CO CO to o CO 00 03 CM 1— 03 q '0; q q q hv q q q q

1''.

qq '3; 1— CM* cvi cvi

m 00 T“ o to CO CM CM CO CO

m M" 03 o 00

q r’-. '0;q

qqqqqqq m; T— T* cvi CM* cvi T

Ifj CO o 00 to rv. o CO CO CO 05

m CO

q 'llqqq COqqq COqq 0;

T— cvi 1— cvi cvi T“

to 'O’ 00 CO to 05 CM 03 to CO to CM CO CO q h-; CO q q q q t'>; T“ q q q in q 'T 1

cvi CM* cvi

to CM h- 'O’ to r- 05 CO CO CO C35 C35 '3’ in q N; q q q q q 1''. r-^ q q q q '3; •^ 1- cvi •r- cvi cvi

to

O CO CM to '0’ CO 't co CO tom CM CO

q

N

q

qqq to r—qqq •M;q M;

T“ T“ cvi CM* CM* T“

'O’ CO CO 00 to CM 00 03 in CO o 00 T" CM q q q q q q q r~_ q q in CO q '3; 1

T— cvi cvi cvi

T

M- 'O’ 05 CO to 00 CO CO o m C35 in o o q q q q q 'O’ q T“ q q 'O’ CO q '3; cvi T— cvi CM*

CM CO 'O’ 'O’ CO 03 'O’ CO C33 03 00 03

qqq 't

q COqqq

q COq

cvi T— cvi CM*

'O’ 05 CO CM 'O’O 1— o 00 CM CO

O f'.

qqq

q COqq

qq r-;q T— CM* cvi cvi 1

CO to 05 CO 'O’ 00 00 CO 00 CO CO CO

m

qq

q

qqq CM M;

qqqqq I-;

q T— cvi T~ cvi cvi

CO CM N. CO CO CM 00 CO CO CO o C35

m 'f

q

q r—qq

q '0;q

q

q

qqq

r- CM* CM*

TT—

CM 05 to CM 05 00 CO

T

o CO ^

CO CM

q "d;

qqq 1

qqq

q

*—

q T—

q 1

T— 1— T” T— 1— CM T- i— 1

T-^ CM* T- 1— o3

LL

T3C

ca

CJ<u CO c o

0) 'C

•55 0) IX

(U3

LL

(D

CO

O -43 CD V) LU G

U)

cd (DE3

03O

03 O.T3

03 tC

03 ^ 2. 5

C7 cO '3 Z

03 O

Id

‘i’ ^ — 3 3 W)

—;

03 u_ LL 03 2 g

§' S « ^ O E S = -o 2 E E ^ ^ o

03 03 3 3 W -=

LL LL C'J 2

•5 23 ^ O

-c « 3 03 o .p

g

a .i5 '(S 03

a

03 ^ QijjQcrzco cujQa: CO

25

Projected

world

oil

price

indices

(1990 =

1.00)

Oil

Price

Assumption

1.85

1.90

1.96

2.01

2.07

2.11

2.15

2.20

2.24

2.27

2.30

2.34

2.38
Table

Ca-3.

Projected

average

fuel

price

indices

tied

to

the

value

of

the

dollar

in

1990,

by

end-use

sector

and

major

fuel

Census

Region 3

(Delaware,

Maryland,

District

of

Columbia,

Virginia,

West

Virginia,

North

Carolina,

South

Carolina,

Georgia,

Florida,

Kentucky,

Tennessee.

Alabama,

Mississippi,

Arkansas,

Louisiana,

Oklahoma,

Texas)

CJooCVJ

Cfl <uoc

<ao o

<a II O) "

(0 o

SJ Oi < :::> T3Bo

(U 'o

a.

CO

o>

O)

o>

O)

CO

oi

o>

lO05

05

(35 05

CO

05

05

CVJ 0505

05

05O

0505

1/5 <35 00 U5 in o 00

m 00 CVJ o CVI

O

O

O CO

O in o CO

p o m <35 •O' CO

T" cvi

CO CVJ CVJ CO O"

m 1^ o CO o CO <3 in <35 CO p o m 00 CO CVJ T—

U5 o CO 0" o in O' 00 h- o m o CO O CO C> CO CO p o CVJ p

1— 1“ 1— T- T~ 1— 1— T“ T- T* I— 1— T- 1—

CVJ 1“ 1^ CVJ CO CO CO -r~ <35 o <35 CVJ p CO p p p N CVJ p q (O CVJ P CVJ r^ T— T“ T— T- 1— T— T— T- T- T“ T“ T— 1

1^ CO CVI in o CO o 00 05 CVJ 1^ 00 o CVI o p p CO p p p o CO in O

1— 1— <1— T- 1— T- «r- T— T- -s— 1— 1— T— y—

CO T“ 00 CVJ CO CVI 05 CO 00 in CO

ppp o CO in o <35

p •0;pp

T— T— T— 1— T— r— T— <3 r- 1—

r- 00 CD T-> CVJ <35 CO 1^ in T" q T-; q q p T-^ p <35 P CO o p

r~ 1-^ T-^ r- <3 1“ T- T* T“ •T- O CO <35 O o <35 O IV. in |v

p r*p o CO o p P p

p

p

p 1— T- 1— 1— T— 1— T- 1— T- C3 T— T— C3 1— O T*- O in CVJ |v O C35 in >3' in p p O CVJ O O <35 p <35 p p

T~ 1“ T- T— T— T- r- C3 T— 1—

d 1— o |V o <35 O <35 CO CO o 00 O CVJ <35 CO T“ p p p P o O T— o o <35 00 p p T“ T- T- T* T“ T“ T— d 1— 1— d T— 1—

T- CVI o 05 o CO CVI in o <35 CO CVJ |v CO 00 q p p P p p p p p <35 p p CO p p T- T“ 1— T

1— 1— 1— T“ 7—

d 1— 1—

d T—

d o o 00 <35 CVJ 00 o |v CVI 00 <n CVJ fv p p p p p p p P p p p p p p p d d d d d d o o o o O o o o o o o o o o o p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p

T“ 1

1

r* T- T- T“ T- 1— 1— T— y~~ T— r—

<15 3

LLT3C

CO B

CJ

CD w

•S ^ u.

.t; 05 o ts

CO

CO 0E3Bo 0 05 u) 0. (0 o 0 — 05 — 0 cd — o ± O 3 2„ S 05 « CT 0 £ LU Q Z

03 05 “ 2 0 O E

•=

J -o 2 E i 2 I I I I O LU Q CC Z CO

03 05 3 3 52 IS . LL LL cd 0 3 t 2 g “ O I 1 I I I I S 0 .52 0 0 C LU G cr Z CO 0 c c

•S

Q 0 3 o 0

Q. >_ w o 0 B

26

Projected

world

oil

price

indices

(1990 =

1.00)

Oil

Price

Assumption

1.00

0.96

0.98

1.07

1.15

1.21

1.30

1.40

1.50

1.59

1.65

1.73

1.79
Table

Ca-3,

continued.

Projected

average

fuel

price

indices

tied

to

the

value

of

the

dollar

in

1990,

by

end-use

sector

and

major

fuel

Census

Region 3

(Delaware,

Maryland,

District

of

Columbia,

Virginia,

West

Virginia,

North

Carolina,

South

Carolina,

Georgia,

Florida,

Kentucky,

Tennessee,

Alabama,

Mississippi,

Arkansas,

Louisiana,

Oklahoma,

Texas)

(O

(Uoac

03O

0.

0) o

Cl)

II O) "

cd o § O) < ^

T30o0

's

Q.

lOOCJO

CM

COOCM

CMOCMOCMO

CM

O)OOCM

00O

CMNO

CM

COO

CM

lOO

CMooCM

COO

CM

Oi CM CO CO 0 r>. 0 0 to CM 1— CO 0 CO 0 0 CO CO 1— <j) |V 03 CM 0 to CM CO to

CM CM cvi cvi

a> 0 CM 0 to CO CO CO CM <0 CM IV (0 0 CO CO q q q q q to q 'O' T“ CM cvi cvi

O) 00 C3J 0 CO CM CO CM tv 00 'O' (0 00 q q q q q q q q 'O' T-; q '0; T“ T“ CM T" cvi cvi

a> CO 0 r>- 0 0 tv 'O' 0 'O' 0 |V |V q q q q to q q q q 'O; c\i T“ T*“ cvi cvi T“

Oi to C3> to CJ> CO CO CM CO CM |v CO CO q q q q q q q q •0; q q '0; T“ T— cvi *1" 1— cvi cvi T“

a> CO 00 CO OJ CO CO <0 CO C0 CO CO 'O' "O' q q q N; q q O’ rv q CO 0 q 'O; T“ T-* T“ c\i cvi cm’ T“ 0 to C3J 0 CO CO •O' to CM tv CM CO CM CO q q q q tv T-; q q q q '0; CM cvi

a> CO CM 'O’ a> <0 CO C0 'O' t” CM rv 00 T“ CM q q q q q CO q T-; q CM q q '0; cvi t— cvi

CO CO 0 CO CO to CO CM CO 0 C0 CM tv <0 0 q q q q q tv q q T-; tv CM |V T“ O;

cvi T“ cvi 1“ T*

CO 00 CO CO CM rv CO CM <0 to CO 00 00 00

qqqq IVq

q T-;q rv Tq T-;q

cvi IT" cvi

r'- 0 CO CO 0 CO C0 0 CO |v CO q q q q q q q T“ q IV q T-; CO

T“ cvi cvi

CO CO CO 'O' C0 0 00 CO to |V to to

q 0;q

q T-; •vt 0 CO 0 to CO

cvi T“ cvi

CO CM CM CO 0 CO CO CO CM C0 00 'O' CM q q q 0 •0; q 0 CO <0 'O' CO

y— T- T- 1— 1— 1— cvi T- 1— f— 1— 1— 1— 1— 1— 0o

LLoC

COo0

CO

CO

•f3 c0

T3

550

CE

COCO CDE00o 0 V)0 0 0 00 0 0 3

LL 0. 0 0

LL 0

U. 0 0

LL 0

LL 00 0

•c 00

T30

ic: 0 0"cO k_

'o0E

'0c 0

_0 00a 0

"cO 00E 0

•c 'oc 00

"00n 00 00 5CO 0

CT

B0 EQ 00 «

550 B0 00 00

"O 0 •50

•55 0 B0

LU

b _J z 0 LiJ

Q cc z 0 c LU

b QC z E

CO

27

Projected

world

oil

price

indices

(1990 =

1.00)

Oil

Price

Assumption

1.85

1.90

1.96

2.01

2.07

2.11

2.15

2.20

2.24

2.27

2.30

2.34

2.38
- $ 8 I 0 — - s 5 f

d)

O £0 S S ? 0 0 W O g o ^ 9i s ?

a?3 ®

'*- £

01 2 «« s

§-0o is 0 0 ^ s o o

.0 -o

o' 0) q: £

di 5 Ii9

o' .2

"O c 2 o

-2 5 P CQ O O & o' •SS

p>o 2 2 S 2^

C« ^ p ^

.£ 2ct

c:o^ rs

cc

J

«5 CQ ^ § ? .N p P o §2§ I 0o0n

v>0oT2C0o

•c

Q.03 O 0 II o>0 O

S§< w o0o0g

a. 1 <N 1 05

C35 CO 00 h- y— in CO r-> 00 CM 0 T— <35 11 Q0 1 0 0 CO 0 in T* CO q T-; q q q T“ q 1 <N 111

r“ T— CM cvi 1 ^ 1 00 N CM 00 CO CM in 0 CM CO 0 N !1 Q0 1 q M; q q q q q q q q T- N q 1 CVJ 111

cvi CM ! 0 1 1^ h- 10 05 1^ CO IN 00 00 CO

N 05 in ! Q0 1 q q q q q q q q q 0 q q q

C\J 111

T“ cvi

o> 1 CO in in CO CO CO CM 0 CO CM

o>0) T“ 11 q

q

q

qqqqq

qqqq

q 11 CO 1 0 CO 0 M’ 00 CM N CM CO 00 CJ5 CM CO 00

OJ

o>

T“ 11 q

qqq 0 CO T— 0 q

q

N

qq 111 CO m CO CM 00 CO CM CO CO in in

05

05

T“ 1 q

qq T“ 0 CO

U5 T- 0 q

qqq 11 (O 1 CO 0 m CM in in 0 CO 0 0 0505 1 q q q 0 CM 0 q q q q 11

T—

in 1 CM

m 0 CM 05 CON 0 0 CO CO

N

05

05

T” 11 q

q 0 r- CO 0 0 q

qqqqq 11 T“ T“ 1 CM 0 05 0 in in in Oi 05 in N CO in

05

05

T— 11 q

qq

q

qq 05 05qqq

q 11

T“ T“ <3

C5 T~ T" r—

CO 1 0 0 00 0 0 CO 05

N 0 in 00 CM 05

05 11 q

qqq 0 0 05 05 T- - CM 0 q 11

T“ 0 0

CJ 1 0 CM 0 h- 0 CO CO CM 00

N CO CO in CM 00

05 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 05 05 0 0 CM 0 05

05 111

t“ T“

C5 <3 T“

C3 1 T— 0 CO 0 CM 00 00 00 CM 00 N 05 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 05 0 05 C35 0 05 CM 0 05 0 111

T“ T“ 0 <3

C5 0 <3 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 05

05 1 q

qqqq

qqqq

qqqqq

q 11

T-* T— T" T— 11 tn0 1 0 11 E 1 3 1 0 03 1 0 0

U.T3C0

i_ 200

CO 11111111111

Residential

Electricity

Distillate

Fuel 0

a.00

v=03

O'

Natural

Gas

Commercial

Electricity

Distillate

Fuel

Residual

Fuel

Natural

Gas

Steam

Coal

Industrial

Electricity

Distillate

Fuel

Residual

Fuel

Natural

Gas

Steam

Coal

Transportation

Motor

Gasolin

28

Projected

world

oil

price

indices

(1990 =

1.00)

Oil

Price

Assumption

1.00

0.96

0.98

1.07

1.15

1.21

1.30

1.40

1.50

1.59

1.65

1.73

1.79
Table

Ca-4,

continued.

Projected

average

fuel

price

indices

tied

to

the

value

of

the

dollar

in

1990,

by

end-use

sector

and

major

fuel

Census

Region 4

(Montana,

Idaho,

Wyoming,

Colorado,

New

Mexico,

Arizona,

Utah,

Nevada,

Washington,

Oregon,

California,

Alaska,

Hawaii)

CO

(Uo

T3Coo

(U o 3 O

<DO)

Cd

II o < w O0o0

a.

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O

cq 00 T— <D 00

qqq o qqqq

O 1 CVJ 11 CM cvi CO cvi

0- 1 CO CO CM <7> in O'

m 00 (3 CMm 00

T— 1^ cq T—

q 00q

qqq inq

O 1 C\i 11

T— c\i CO cvi

CO 1 CO N. inm (D CO CO in (V.

r>; cq I^_ rq

qqq <3

m

q

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T— ,— 4— CM T“ cvi cvi

CM 1 CO CM o in in CM O' T— in O' CM 00 CO CO

T“ 1 cq T-;

q N;q T~q

qq •oq •0; O 1 CM 11 T— 1— cm' cvi cvi

CO Oi •O' in o O <3 CO 1— CM r>.m CM in

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Oi 1 U5 CO h«. in in <D CM T“

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00 1 lO CO CO CO O' CO CO o o CM <3 CO 00 O 1 T" cq CM cq T- q q q T— q q CO q

y—

O 1 CM 11 CM y— T— cvi cvi y— r“ N 1 o o N. CO r". r^- C3 C3 00 C3 CM CO (3 O 1 T-; cq CM iq T

W 1 h* •o q q 1^ CO T-; T-; q

CM 11 T

T

cm' T— cvi cm’ T—

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T

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T-^ iq in T~

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T

cm’ y— cvi cm’ T—

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m CO CO in in

OW 11 iq O; T“

qqqq IV. o q T-;q

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cvi cvi cvi T— ^ 1 O' in in CO CO •o CO C3 CO o 'd' O 1 1— iq T- O; I-; q q O; q T—• O 1 q CO q q

CM 11

r— CM cvi

y—

CO 1 o 00 CM CD <3 CO CM CM 1— 00 CO CVJ Ow 11 O; q q T~ •o q T-_ q q q T-; q

CM 11 T CM T~ cvi T— 03

LLoC0oo0

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CO d) ^ LU 03

U.00

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29

Projected

world

oil

price

indices

(1990 =

1.00)

Oil

Price

Assumption

1.85

1.90

1.96

2.01

2.07

2.11

2.15

2.20

2.24

2.27

2.30

2.34

2.38
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m N. in oo CM CJl 1 O 1 CD q CO q q q q q o in C3i in q 11

CNi 11

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C\J 111

T“ T* T“ 1 o 1 CO in C3i CO CO r». o CO h- C71 in o m 11 o 1 CD CO q q q o; h>; q q o h- O’ q 1 oCVi 11 •r- 1- T“ ’T" •»- •r- T" o 1 1 0) 0 1 o> 1 CM CM in CM o C3i CO CO r- 00 Oi CM ! O) 1 O CO o CM O CO CM o o 1^ CO o CM 'B I1 O) 11 T* T* !- T-* T* T-^ > w. 1 1 0) o

XI "(O' E

T3

V)0o 1 CO 1 T— CO CM o -r- CJl CM C3i 00 T— C3i r>- 00 o 1111

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Oi 1111

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q

CD

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0) 0 0o 1 1 CO h- o Oi 00 1^ CM 00 CM Cii CO CO O' 1 O) 1 o CM o T“ o CM •O’ o Oi CO O' CM o

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0) "o CL 1 1 u "o) o . a Vi 3 O 1 CO 1 T“ 00 o in o CO 1^ T“ 00 in 00 Oi in o

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Li. O

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T“ CO - o Oio

CM CO T“ o o 1 0 o

T5 0) O) , - i

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0) a 0

>N Q os <oo 11 o1“ 111

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0)O)

(0

Wm

o“S 2

03 S o 1 1 O Oi Oi o T“ 00 o 00 in T“ 00

m o

'o' w

a. 1111

Oi

Oi 1111 q - q

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T“ o T“

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0)>

03

""c Ui 1 CO 1 o o 00 o Oi CM CO o h- o CM CO CO T— — q3 1 Oi 1 o o o o o o o o Oi T“ T— o o O

ao 0 is 11 Oi 11 CD r“ = CO 1 o0 1 CM 1 CM o 1^ o CO CM in <3i 00 CO CM O’ CO 00 'o' 0. - S 1 Oi 1 o O o o o o O o Oi O) o O o o Oi IS 111

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T“ ?“ T— CD CD f T“ CD

LO1 1 1 o T- o CO o CM 00 in C3i 00 CM 00 CO CM

N 1 Oi 1 o o o o o O Oi o Oi Oi O a> o o Oi

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Residential

Electricity

Distillate

Fuel o

0.TD0

V=03

or

Natural

Gas

Commercial

Electricity

Distillate

Fuel

Residual

Fuel

Natural

Gas

Steam

Coal

Industrial

Electricity

Distillate

Fuel

Residual

Fuel

Natural

Gas

Steam

Coal

Transportation

Motor

Gasolin

30

Projected

world

oil

price

indices

(1990 =

1.00)

Oil

Price

Assumption

1.00

0.96

0.98

1.07

1.15

1.21

1.30

1.40

1.50

1.59

1.65

1.73

1.79
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.2 -a

</) (0

CD ^ U o ? O 5 3! •a 8 5 ?

0) "O a §

S)

n cc . o o > S cd 5 I

CD

d £

to a

5? ‘*ra 3C

CO •S 2 -o c £ a o 55 '5 0 > s

in1 cd O®n

V)0oOc0o ooo

Ito2o02

CL

inoCMoCM

COoCM

CM

T“oCMOCMOCM

o>O

CM

COO

CMooCM

(OOOCM

inoo

CMo

CM

COoo

CM

Oi CM CO ' T- o T- CO .r- T- CM o .r- 00 CM

O

qq

q

q inq

q *;

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q

cm' cvi cvi CM 1—

Oi in <3> a> 00 CM 00 o CM CO 0 o 05 q q q q m q q q q q q 0;

CM 1— cvi cvi

Oi o> 0" h. <3J CO 00 CO 00 CM in CM 00 q q q rv. q q 0; q T-; q in q q 0;

cvi cvi cvi 1

O) r>- CM in O) 0 0 0 CO CM CO 00 00 CO CD q q q r'- q q 0 q q 0 q q 0; T“ 1— CM T— T“ cvi cvi

O) CO CO cn CO CM in CM 1“

mm 0 in

qqq

qq 0 q T-; •r-;

q 0 q

q 0 T—=

cvi T— I—^

cvi cvi

Oi o Oi o CO o CO CM CO o CO 0 q q q h-; q q q q

1—

q 0 q

q 0

T— cm' T— cvi cvi

O) CM c;) 00 in CM CM in

m CO CM

qqq

qq CO T~

q CO T—q 0

cvi cvi cvi y~“

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m o q q q q q N. CM q T-; q CO q q 0;

T* cvi cvi cvi

00 to CM (O 00

O CM CO o O in in

C35 05

q

q

qqq CMqqq

qq

T

T“ T— T“ cvi 1“ cvi

CO CD 00 r^. CO r>~ <35C35 COC35 CO r^ 00

qq T—qqq T—qqqq •T-;

q r-;q

cvi cm'

N <3 N. CO o 0 05 05 o CO CO CO q q T~ 0; q q T“ q q q q

y—

q

q

cvi cvi

CD 0 m 05 in 05 00 00 in 00 in in 0 q 0; 0; q q o 0; q q q q h- T q T

T—TT— 1

cvi

T

cvi

T 1 T“

CD

m CM o CO CD 05 0 CO T" CM CO 0 CM

q 0; 0;

qqq 0;

q

q COq

q T-;

q

TT- T- T- T- T- T- T— T— T- T- cvi

T

T- T- 03

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t/5 (1) tr

V)00E30O® 0

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lO

b 0 0 00 0 0 00 CQ 3

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T3

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k. E L.

<J5 2 0 CO

O s <35 3 0 c o 0 0 4—* 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 o

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Q DC z U)

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31

Projected

world

oil

price

indices

(1990 =

1.00)

Oil

Price

Assumption

1.85

1.90

1.96

2.01

2.07

2.11

2.15

2.20

2.24

2.27

2.30

2.34

2.38
w0) coS c

«3

O 0 .E

.a a, 0) Q.

<B CO 0 0 2^ *= 0 0 ^ PT 0I o0n 03CC0 0 ^ t s.Eoo Oc

35

=3 t£ ^ I I I I ^

.2 ^ S ^

"^3 0 0

O)

O) oo$ >0 O

•a 9> 52 •§ 8 =

‘S' ^

qI

®

qjc c 83I oc0 c0

jCo0

O)0C0o

59 |2O

,§S

S' ? s -s

(0 o 3 qj

<0 c c c

03Q

CJ o m o 2 o

CVJ CVJ

U3 o o 2 o CNJ CM m V3

LL•ac

cao0w

MO 00 o o o r^ o

(000E3Oo 0ac0O

.= 0

•c iS o 20. cO T3 0 0 — 0 tC 0 « 5

lOCMOOh- O T- lO T- ^ g ® 2 ^ S ^ LU G Z ® ® — 3 3 W 0 ^ LL U. 0 5 1 •f S3 « O S 5 = -o 2 E c o w -55 2 23 I ® .52 0 0 2 Q LU G G Z 0

00

O 00 If) 1^

O CM U) 00 ^

<3 T-^ -r^ 1-: T-:

00 CO O) 00 CO 0 r- CO CO CM CO oc) CO 00 CM O) 00 CO 0 CM CO

c> T-^ T-^ CM C3 T-^ CM cvi CD CD cvi cvi CO 0 in <1 CO 0 CO If) CM CO 00 0 M" CO U) CO O) 0 0 0 1 cp CO O) CO h*. CO CM q Oi q CO q N 0 2 0 CM CM 111 CD CM cvi CD cm’ CO CO CD cvi CO CO

CO 0 LO 1 N y— CO CO CO CO CO CO M" 0 CM 00 00 CO

O)

Q 0 1 CM CO

q CO

q

qqq 0 q CM If) C3 2 C3

1— T“ 11 <3 cm’ <3 0" CD CO 0" CD CD CO Md

95 9) 3 3 0

•2 f S 1 ^ ^

ts .b = ^ ^ t

5f5

O » •55 2 93

g 2 .2 0 0 2 c LU G cr z 0

'O' CO

CO

If) CO 0 1 CM 00 CM 0‘ CM CO 10 CO 0 T- 0” 00 0 1 in T“ q q q h- q q CO q T-| q q 00 T“ 0

CM 11 d 06

d cvid CO cb cbd cb

d COoCO0 co£30o 0

Q. i_ <n o 0 2

32

Oil

Price

Assumption

3.96

6.39

3.43

2.32

1.58
1 o in 1 in 00 00

m in O) |V 00 'a- IV |v 'it CO* 1 o o o C3J o tv CVJ o CVJ tv CO 00 11 oCNi O 1 CVJ 11 d 7-^ d T— d 7- 7- 7- 7- d T“ 7- T- T“ d c 1 .^0 1 1 1 1

co' 11 1 1 CO 1 5 1 1 .5 1 m O 1 00 1— tv in r- CVJ C35 o o CO Tm CO

<J5 1 o o

1“ 1 CVJ 00 CO o CO o CO tv o to

m o T—

Co 11 oC\J

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d cvj cvj COdd evi cvj CO

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m in

C .Ci <S 1 o o O 1 tv U5 in T“ tv oo CO in |v T" 00 IV O) CO

(0 o

04

O 1 CVJ 11 d CVJ cvj CO

d CVJ CO COd T“ CVJ CO CO 7- T~

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a 1 0) o 1 1 o o -sc 1 1 c3

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,c §

‘c 1 lO

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O)

0> o O 11 CVJ 11 od

lOCO

CVJ CVJ CO od

q

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q

CO COd

d •ct

qqd CO

(U 1 0> .2 s i 1 c 5 1 ca x: I11 111 o co' 1 I

(3) O)

egc c

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k

C5 11 o ( to 1 CVJ o O) CVJ 00 tv in CO a> CO CVJ o a 111

C3) o> 2C3) 1 O) 1 T“ 1 d1

Oi

CVJ

qdqd

CVJ d1 CO

q

in

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q

to cd

qd

q

0) <0 % 1 1

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LLoC

COo

(U CO

CO

CO CUE3

0)o

CO •ac

cu T3

Ui

(U a: o

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LU

<D

CO

CO

CD 0

V)0 0 0 00 3

LL

w

CL CO 3

LL 3

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CD

«-< o

CD 0 O

‘o

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a ({= <D 15 0E c JO 3

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k. E

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•55 0 20 0

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</) 3

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33

Oil

Price

Assumption

3.96

6.39

3.43

2.32

1.58
>

(0

COI nO0

.c2

(3€

If

w0

c5co

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S’ = o CO 0 S

§3 O) 95

3i ^,11 o S ? 2 ><o9 I § 8

•sI

II= .CQ S •§ 0 .2^ a S c . 3 .5 aiE I 8 <3 8)2 c -2 « a ® -K O) ^

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<0

25c

•§t1

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0:

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m I o 2 o CM CM I

If) o

05 o O 05 •»

T- CM o in I 05 O 05 I 05 ^ 05 I T- T- I 03

U.T3C02o0

CO

lO T- 1- 00 O O 00 o 000E30o 0c 03

•= 0 o ts

in o 1- o CM o h»

CM 't N- CO to -M- 1^ O CM CO to Min o i CO 05 CO O’ to 'ir to 05 o 00 C75 r>- O o ^ 1 CO to 05 00 CO q t

q 0; q q o is o 1 CM CM 1 d T“ cvi d c\i cvi CO d c\i cvi O’ OCM o in 1 CM CO CO rv h- CM CO CO CM in CO CO o o 2 ! CO q o q to q q q q 05 05 O; t— oCM

is o 1 CM 1 d cvi cvi cvi

d CM* CO CO

d cvi CO in

to CO T— to

m to O’ 05 to O’ O’ CO o O’ in q q 1-^ q q q q

cvi

d cvi

d CO in T-^

dd CO O’ T—

d

ir 5 0

a. 00 0 03

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CT 20z EoO o0

LU 50G

•55 0X 20z 00

(/> 3

T3C o0

LU 0 0 3 3 «2 =

Li. 0 2 0

0^3

•a

m00

00

to

CO to in CM CO O’ to o CO to CO o o CM

q CM 05 05 CO CM O’ CO COqqqqq

d CO

d CMd O’ COdd O’ to to

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CO

CO0 c c - 1 0 2 f 0 o o 0 o ll

34

Oil

Price

Assumption

3.96

6.39

3.43

2.32

1.58
- 2 O s

.o ^ ^ '

Vi

a>

cd

UiCo

‘is iS c

«3

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*0

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O)0C0o $3I PC0 a

z. ^ o .2 Q 5 2 ^ •S 5 5 <3

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•2 -c: ?> a

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m CM 00 CM r» p p 1^ p

OOCO'M-O>h>- O CM 00 CO

C) T-^ 1-^ !-

O’p

cd

lO o II O’ 00 to h- CO CO CO lO lO CO Oi CD S o ^ I CO p p p p lO CM CO C3 O CO lO 00 O .s o

CM CM III <3 CM C3 cvi CM CO C3 <3 CM c\i CO <3

CO I O LO I CD CO CO 00 o CO h«. CM lO 00 00 oO o OO II 00 p p p p p •0; p CD p p

CM CM II C3 CM cvi cvi <6 CM* CO CO C3 cvi CO CO

COCO

lO

C3^

CJ> o II 0" CO CD CO o lO CO O’ CO CO 0- •O’ 00 o I p p p p p p p 'a; p p o p T— oCM III C3 CO C3 cvi (3 CO cd O’ oc) •O’ T“ CO o m I CO 00 CO T- in CO 00 CM 00 CM CD y— CO in 0)^0) II o p o *— CO p p p o T-^ p tT p p I C3 cvi C3 cvi cd CO lO cd1 <3 CO cb cd C3 oCO

(U3

LLOc

CO

k.

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CO

'C3 c

<x> a•35 (U (T

CO

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LL 0

a. 00 0 03

LL 0 O 0 'o 0 0 0

ic: 0 0 q 4-^ 0 0 k_ E •o

u> b 3

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-1

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u. .2 5 O 0 ^ ^ ^ - 

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BMtd3 CO O "Ol E

35 5 g ^ .52 0 0 c uj Q ac z CO 0c0 o 0

Q. 1_ w o 0 O 1I11IIIIIIIIIIIIIiIIIIIIIIIII1iIIIIIIIII

35

Oil

Price

Assumption

3.96

6.39

3.43

2.32

1.58
Table

Cb-5.

Projected

average

fuel

price

escalation

rates

exclusive

of

general

price

inflation

by

end-use

sector

and

major

fuel

(percentage

change

compounded

annually)

United

States

A

verage

O ID 1 •M- CM CD 00 o

^ 2

O o

^ 1 q q 00 q

CM CM

1

1

1 CD CD T*

lo lo CD oj O CO t- Q

(V <N CM 00

CD CM CD lO 00

CD

to o 1 CO 0 CD CD N 00 0 'O’ 1^ C3i CO ID CD So?; 1 CO h- T— 00 CO q CO T— CO to 0 CO q q ir“ O 4S o CM CM

1

1

1 CD CM c\i CD cvi CO CD CD cvi c\i 'O’

0 ID

1

1 o> 'O’ CO CD to 'O’ CO ID Oi CM C3> CM CD S 0 s 0 0

1 CO CO CM OJ IV |v q 00 O) q q q q

CM CM

1

1

1 CD CM CM CM CD cvi CO CO CD CM CO 'O’ \

0

1

1 0 CD CO O) 't CO CD |V 00 CD CD 03 Oi 0 1 ID q q O) ID q q 't CD |V q q CM Oi T“ 0

CM

1

1

1 CD CO CM CD CO CD CO CD CD 't CD to CD CO

001

O) 2

IDo>

CJ>

fv r- Oi T- CM M’ CD CM 00 'O’ CO 00 0 'O’ TT-| IV q T“ q q q q q q q q q q

CD cm’ CD csi CD CO T-^ CD CD CO ID c\i CD T-^

I I

O

3

T3C

CO 2

CO03 w

® — 3 3C0-—

CO _ ll LL 5

I

•= J -D g I

I ^ 1 II

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'1’ ^

3 D 52 TS ^ LL LL CO

.2 t II ® O

1 1 1 i I i

g ® « o rt 2

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II

36

Oil

Price

Assumption

3.96

6.39

3.43

2.32

1.58
PROJECTED AVERAGE FUEL PRICE INDICES FOR PRIVATE SECTOR USE (INDICES ARE

GIVEN INCLUSIVE OF FOUR ALTERNATIVE RATES OF GENERAL PRICE INFLATION)

This section presents in tables S-1 through S-5 projected average fuel price

indices for 4 fuels in the residential sector and 5 fuels in the commercial

sector for each of the years from 1990 through 2015. They update tables

originally published in the report, Comprehensive Guide for Least-Cost Energy

Decisions (NBS SP 709)

.

As a convenience for the user, the indices include the effect of 4

alternative, hypothetical rates of general price inflation; 0, 2.5, 5, and

7.5 percent. Selection of these rates is intended in no way to suggest what

actual rates might be. Use of the indices produce price estimates which are

in current dollars, inclusive of general price inflation. Current dollar

prices are needed when discounting is performed with discount rates which

include general price inflation. For the case of 0 percent inflation, the

price indices in the S series of tables are identical to those in the

counterpart Ca table series. When there is no inflation, there is no difference between constant and current dollars.

The indices based on inflation rates of 2.5, 5, and 7.5 percent allow the

analyst to perform evaluations based on the assumption of a positive rate of

general price inflation that changes the purchasing power of the dollar.

Performing evaluations in current dollars is sometimes preferred for private

investment decisions for three reasons; (1) it facilitates the treatment of

taxes, (2) it allows the use of a market rate of interest for the discount

rate which tends to be more readily understood by others, and (3) it

explicitly treats inflation which also tends to be more readily understood by

a lay audience than the constant dollar approach. But it should be noted that

the current and constant dollar approaches give the same results if performed

correctly. Analysis of private sector investments may be performed in either

constant or current dollars. (Life-cycle cost analysis of Federal energy

conservation investments should be conducted in constant dollars, using a real

discount rate, as provided in tables Ca-1 through Ca-5.)

The indices in tables S-1 through S-5 are derived from the indices reported in

tables Ca-1 through Ca-5 by means of the following equation;

Is = Ic X (1 + g)»,

where Ig = Index found in tables S-1 through S-5;

Iq = Index found in tables Ca-1 through Ca-5;

g = Annual rate of general price inflation in decimal form; and

N = Number of discount or compound interest periods, in this case

the year of the index minus 1990.

Example of How to Use the Indices;

Suppose you wish to estimate the present value of energy savings in year 2000,

and you expect an annual inflation rate of 5 percent per year. Taking natural

37
gas for residential use in Maryland, estimate present value savings as follows: (1) multiply the 1990 price for residential natural gas in Maryland

by the projected quantity of energy savings in the year 2000, to estimate

savings in the year 2000 in 1990 prices, (2) go to table S-3, find the year

2000 index for residential natural gas at a 5 percent inflation rate (2.12),

and multiply by the result from (1) to determine savings in the year 2000 in

2000 prices, and (3) discount the savings back to the present, using an SPW

factor based on a discount rate that reflects a 5 percent inflation rate.

For further explanation of the use of these indices, see NBS Special

Publication 709, appendix B, Part I.

Note: The data in the tables which follow are now reported by 4 Census

regions. Prior to the 1988 edition, regional data were presented by 10 DoE

regions. Figure B-1 presents a map showing the states corresponding to the 4

Census regions. The Census regions do not include American Samoa, Canal Zone,

Guam, Puerto Rico, Trust Territory of the Pacific Islands, or the Virgin

Islands. Analysts of Federal projects in these areas should use data which

are "reasonable under the circumstances," and may refer to the U.S. average

data for guidance.

38
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^ 4
Table

S-1.

Projected

average

fuel

price

indices

with

assumed

general

price

inflation

rates

of

0,

2.5,

5,

and

7.5

percent

by

end-use

sector

and

major

fuel.

Census

Region 1

(Maine,

New

Hampshire,

Vermont,

Massachusetts,

Connecticut,

Rhode

Island,

New

York,

New

Jersey,

Pennsylvania)

03<0<dD

03<O

Z)

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CE

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40
Table

S-1,

continued.

Projected

average

fuel

price

indices

with

assumed

general

price

inflation

rates

of

0,

2.5,

5,

and

7.5

percent

by

end-use

sector

and

major

fuel.

Census

Region 1

(Maine,

New

Hampshire,

Vermont,

Massachusetts,

Connecticut,

Rhode

Island,

New

York,

New

Jersey,

Pennsylvania) <Oo<

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t- CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CM A I

2.02

3.70

6.66

1.85

3.43

6.27

11.28

2.41

4.48

8.18

14.72

2.06

3.82

6.98

12.58

1.21

2.25

4.11

7.40
Table

S-2.

Projected

average

fuel

price

indices

with

assumed

general

price

inflation

rates

of

0,

2.5,

5,

and

7.5

percent

by

end-use

sector

and

major

fuel.

Census

Region

2

(Ohio,

Indiana,

Illinois,

Michigan,

Wisconsin,

Minnesota,

Iowa,

Missouri,

North

Dakota,

South

Dakota,

Nebraska,

Kansas)

CO<

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T~’ T— T— <1— T— 1— 1— o 05 CVJ m o LO CVJ N- q q q q T“ q q

T-^ d 1-^ T— f— T— <— o h- h- 00 o CVJ m h- q 05 05 05 q q q q

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T-^ T-^ cvj cvj cvj cvj cvj cb cb cb cb •O' •O' m m m <b m O' CO CVJ CVJ CO O' m CO <35 T- •O' 00 CVJ !•'. CO 05 <D O' m q q q q o q q m CO q q q q q in 1- 1

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<35 <35 q q q q q q q q q q q q q q o o

d d 1— T- 7— T— 1— 1— 1—' 7-^ T" 7—

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42

2.64

4.82

8.69

1.72

3.18

5.81

10.46
Table

S-2,

continued.

Projected

average

fuel

price

indices

with

assumed

general

price

inflation

rates

of

0,

2.5,

5,

and

7.5

percent

by

end-use

sector

and

major

fuel.

Census

Region 2

(Ohio,

Indiana.

Illinois,

Michigan,

Wisconsin.

Minnesota,

Iowa,

Missouri,

North

Dakota,

South

Dakota,

Nebraska,

Kansas)

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11.25

1.20

2.22

4.06

7.31
Table

S-3.

Projected

average

fuel

price

indices

with

assumed

general

price

inflation

rates

of

0,

2.5,

5,

and

7.5

percent

by

end-use

sector

and

major

fuel.

Census

Region

3

(Delaware,

Maryland,

District

of

Columbia,

Virginia,

West

Virginia,

North

Carolina,

South

Carolina,

Georgia,

Florida,

Kentucky,

Tennessee,

Alabama,

Mississippi,

Arkansas,

Louisiana,

Oklahoma,

Texas)

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44
Table

S-3,

continued.

Projected

average

fuel

price

indices

with

assumed

general

price

inflation

rates

of

0,

2.5,

5,

and

7.5

percent

by

end-use

sector

and

major

fuel.

Census

Region 3

(Delaware,

Maryland,

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of

Columbia,

Virginia,

West

Virginia,

North

Carolina,

South

Carolina,

Georgia,

Florida,

Kentucky,

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Table

S-4.

Projected

average

fuel

price

indices

with

assumed

general

price

inflation

rates

of

0,

2.5,

5,

and

7.5

percent

by

end-use

sector

and

major

fuel.

Census

Region 4

(Montana,

Idaho,

Wyoming,

Colorado,

New

Mexico,

Arizona,

Utah,

Nevada,

Washington,

Oregon,

California,

Alaska,

Hawaii)

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3.36

6.13

11.04
Table

S-4,

continued.

Projected

average

fuel

price

indices

with

assumed

general

price

inflation

rates

of

0,

2.5,

5,

and

7.5

percent

by

end-use

sector

and

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48
Table

S-5,

continued.

Projected

average

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price

indices

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inflation

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5,

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i
U.S. DEPT. OF COMM. 1. PUBLICATION OR

REPORT NO.

2. Performing Organ. Report No. 3. Publication Date BIBLIOGRAPHIC DATA

SHEET (See instructions) NISTIR-85/3273-4 May 1990

4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE

Energy Prices and Discount Factors for Life-Cycle Cost Analysis 1990: Annual

Supplement to NBS Handbook 135 and NBS Special Publication 709.

5. AUTHOR(S)

Barbara C. Lippiatt and Rosalie T. Ruegg

6. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION (If joint or other than NBS, see instructions)

NATIONAL BUREAU OF STANDARDS

U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

GAITHERSBURG, MD 20899

7. Contract/Grant No.

8 . Type of Report & Period Covered

Annual

9. SPONSORING ORGANIZATION NAME AND COMPLETE ADDRESS (Street. City. State. ZIP)

U.S. Department of Energy Federal Programs Office

Office of the Assistant Secretary

for Conservation and Renewable Energy

Washington, DC 20585

10. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES This report is comprised of energy price and discount factor

tables which are annual updates of tables referenced in NBS Handbook 135 and NBS

Special Publication 709. Only minor changes have been made to this previously

WEEB,-approved material. c

[ I Dcrdjment describes a computer program; SF-185, FIPS Software Summary, is attached.

11. ABSTRACT ( A 200~word or less factual summary of most significant information. If document includes a significant

bibliography or literature survey, mention it here)

This is the 1990 annual edition of energy prices and discount factors for performing

life-cycle cost analyses of energy conservation and renewable energy projects. It

supports the Federal life-cycle costing methodology as described in NBS Handbook 135

(HB 135) and private sector life-cycle cost analysis as described in NBS Special

Publication 709 (SP 709). Tables A, B, and C are revisions of appendices A, B, and

C, respectively, of UB 135. Tables A (7%), Ba, and C apply to Federal energy

conservation and renewable energy projects. Tables A (10%), Bb, and C apply to

Federal projects that require energy price forecasts but are not primarily energy

conserving. Tables S, in the last section of this report, are revisions to

appendix B, Part I of SP 709 and are provided for the convenience of private sector

analysts wishing to make use of Federal energy price forecasts.

12.

KEY WORDS (S/x to twelve entries; alphabetical order; capitalize only proper names; and separate key words by semicolon S) average fuel prices; energy conservation; energy price forecasts; Federal Energy

Management Program; life-cycle cost analysis; single present worth discount factors;

uniform present worth discount factors

13. AVAILABILITY

Unl imited

I ] For Official Distribution. Do Not Release to NTIS

Order From Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington. DC

20402.

[Txi From National Technical Information Service (NTIS), Springfield. VA 22161

14. NO. OF

PRINTED PAGES

bl

1 5. Price

AO 4

USCOmm DC 85 AOlV
A
!

'