P.1 

OAR Box 1830 

Prepped by Ollie Stewart 

Document Number: 

33) IV-B-31 

Docket Number: 

A-87-11 

Printed 11/13/2008 7:20:52 AM Sheet 33 of 232 
P.2 

/ _f% \ UNITED STATES ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY 

_ 

9

 ANN ARBOR. MICHIGAN 48105 I

522 */ 

I?-3i 

JAN 10 199* 

MEMORANDUM 

JIJ JAN 2 4 1994 

1 EgAA!3DGCKET 

OFFICE OF 

AIR AND RADIATION 

SUBJECT: Average Vehicle Life and Fuel Consumption 

FROM: James G. Bryson, Mechanical Engineer//^,, // // A _ 

Special Regulatory Projects Branch H&W Q- '>j*« 

THRU: Glenn W. Passavant, Chief J^^Wv ^ j^^A^-W ^ 

Special Regulatory Projects Branch 

TO: EPA Air Docket A-87-11 

Attached are information on average vehicle life and lifetime 

fuel consumption patterns used in the Onboard Refueling Vapor 

Recovery (ORVR) final Regulatory Impact Analysis (RIA). 

Vehicle Scrappage and Survival Rates were taken from the Oak 

Ridge National Laboratory Transportation Energy Data Book: Edition 

13. This data was used to determine the number of vehicles from a 

given model year stock which are still in use in a given year in 

the future. This table is attached. 

Vehicle mileage accumulation rates were taken from the source 

code of the MOBILE5a model. These are from line 52010099 and 

following of the code. These accumulation rates are listed as 

five-place decimals, which when multiplied by 100,000 result in the 

annual average mileage accumulation rate. This code is attached. 

Also attached is a copy of the output of the spreadsheet used 

to determine the mileage/fuel fraction used in a given year. 

Attachments 
P.3 

ori-l ORNL-6743 

(Edition 13 of ORNL-5198) 

OAK RIDGE 

NATIONAL 

LABORATORY 

MS* HTM MAHIETTA 

Transportation Energy 

Data Book: 

Edition 

13 

"**.«* . 

MANAGED BY 

MARTIN! MARIETTA ENERGY SYSTEMS, INC. 

FOR; THE UNITED STATES 

DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY 

Stacy C. Davis 

Sonja G. Strang 
3-12 

Table 3.6 

Scrappage and Survival Rates fix Automobiles, 

All Trucks, and Light Trucks 

P.4 

Vehicle 

Age 

(Years) 

0 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9 

10 

11 

12 

13 

14 

15 

16 

17 

18 

19 

20 

21 

22 

23 

24 

25 

Automobiles 

(1978-89) 

Scrappage Survival 

Rate 

0.00000 

0.00441 

0.00674 

0.01025 

0.01546 

0.02303 

0.03368 

0.04803 

0.06629 

0.08790 

0.11137 

0.13460 

0.15557 

0.17300 

0.18650 

0.19641 

0.20339 

0.20818 

0.21140 

0.21353 

0.21493 

0.21585 

0.21644 

0.21683 

0.21708 

0.21724 

Rate 

1.00000 

0.99559 

0.98888 

0.97874 

0.96361 

0.94142 

0.90971 

0.86602 

0.80861 

0.73753 

0.65539 

0.56717 

0.47894 

0.39608 

0.32221 

0.25893 

0.20626 

0.16332 

0.12880 

0.10130 

0.07952 

0.06236 

0.04886 

0.03827 

0.02996 

0.02345 

All Trucks 

(1978-89) 

Scrappage 

Rate 

0.00000 

0.00312 

0.00461 

0.00676 

0.00980 

0.01399 

0.01957 

0.02663 

0.03507 

0.04445 

0.05408 

0.06320 

0.07121 

0.07776 

0.08285 

0.08662 

0.08932 

0.09122 

0.09253 

0.09343 

0.09403 

0.09444 

0.09471 

0.09490 

0.09502 

0.09510 

Survival 

Rate 

1.00000 

0.99688 

0.99228 

0.98557 

0.97591 

0.96226 

0.94343 

0.91830 

0.88609 

0.84671 

0.80092 

0.75030 

0.69687 

0.64268 

0.58944 

0.53838 

0.49029 

0.44557 

0.40434 

0.36656 

0.33209 

0.30073 

0.27225 

0.24641 

0.22300 

0.20179 

Light Trucks 

(1978-88) 

Scrappage 

Rate 

0.00000 

0.00249 

0.00383 

0.00583 

0.00877 

0.01296 

0.01869 

0.02606 

0.03488 

0.04454 

0.05416 

0.06285 

0.07006 

0.07562 

0.07967 

0.08251 

0.08443 

0.08571 

0.08655 

0.08710 

0.08745 

0.08768 

0.08783 

0.08793 

0.08799 

0.08803 

Survival 

Rate 

1.00000 

0.99751 

0.99369 

0.98790 

0.97923 

0.96654 

0.94848 

0.92376 

0.89154 

0.85182 

0.80569 

0.75505 

0.70215 

0.64905 

0.59734 

0.54805 

0.50178 

0.45877 

0.41907 

0.38257 

0.34911 

0.31850 

0.29052 

0.26498 

0.24166 

0.22039 

Source: 

Miaou, Shaw-Pin, "Study of Vehicle Scrappage Rates," Oak Ridge National Laboratory, 

Oak Ridge, TN, August 1990. 
P.5 

PO'3 

BLOCK DATA BD20 written APR 1, 1993 

520058 

520059 

520060 

520061 

520062 

520063 

52006*4 

520065 

520066 

520067 

520068 

520069 

520070 

520071 

520072 

520073 

52007^ 

520075 

520076 

520077 

520078 

520079 

520080 

520081 

520082 

520083 

520084 

520085 

520086 

520087 

520088 

520089 

520090 

520091 

520092 

520093 

520094 

520095 

520096 

520097 

520098 

520099 

520100 

520101 

520102 

520103 

520101* 

520105 

520106 

520107 

520108 

520109 

520110 

520111 

520112 

520113 

520114 

520115 

C 

C 

c 

The model year mileage recalculation flag "NEWCUM" is initialized here. 

HDOV MAR values are' initialized as all zeros, since they are 

calculated by subroutine HDDMAR or supplied by the user. 

Block data 20 was modified for MOBILE5vl3

 t 0 include new 

mileage accumulation rates. 

REAL JULMYR 

COMMON /MYRSAV/ AMAR (25,8) ,JULMYR (25,8) .NEWCUM 

COMMON /VMXC0M/ REGMIX (8) .TFNORM (8),VMTMIX(8) ,VCOUNT (39,8) 

DIMENSION V12MAR(25,2),V34MAR (25.2),V56MAR(25,2),V78MAR(25.2) 

DIMENSION V12C0U(39,2),V34COU (39,2),V56COU (39.2),V78COU(39,2) 

Avs; 

Y^OK : 

TfcfcR AWtu 

EQUIVALENCE 

* (AMAR (1,1) ,V12MAR(1,1)) , 

* (AMAR (1,3) ,V34MAR(1,1)), 

* (AMAR (1,5) ,V56MAR(1,1)), 

* (AMAR (1,7) ,V78MAR(1,1)), 

*(VCOUNT (1,1) ,V12C0U (1,1)) 

* (VCOUNT (1,3) ,V34C0U(1,1)) 

*(VCOUNT (1,5),V56C0U(1,1)) 

* (VCOUNT (1,7) ,V78COU(l,l)) 

Initialize NEWCUM. 

DATA NEWCUM IM 

Initialize REGMIX and TFNORM. 

DATA REGMIX,TFNORM /16*0.0/ 

The vmt mix below represents a typical distribution, but is NOT used during 

execution, where the mix is either computed in TFCALX or supplied by user: 

DATA VMTMIX/ 

.* .7824, .0825, .0468, .0419. .0021. .0004, .0354, .0085/ 

Annual average mileage accumulation rates, (divided by 100000) 

DATA V12MAR/ 

LDGV 

*.14390, .13612, .12875. .12180, .11522, 

*.10899. .10310, .09751, .09225, .08726, 

*.08254, .07807, .07386, .O6987, .06608, 

*.06251, .05913. .05594, .05291, .05005, 

*.04735. .04478, .04237, .04007, .03790, 

LDGT1 

*.15442, .14508, .13631. .12807. .12032, 

*.11305, .10621, .09979, .09376, .08809, 

*.08276, .07776, .07306, .06864, .06449, 

*.06059, .05693. .05348, .05025, .04721, 

ft.04436, .04168, .03916, .03679. .03456/ 

DATA V34MAR/ 

LDGT2 
BLOCK DATA BD20 written APR 1, 1993 

P.6 

3 3 0 

520116 

520117 

520118 

520119 

520120 

520121 

520122 

520123 

520124 

520125 

520126 

520127 

520128 

520129 

520130 

520131 

520132 

520133 

520134 

520135 

520136 

520137 

520138 

520139 

520140 

520141 

520142 

520143 

520144 

520145 

520146 

520147 

520148 

520149 

520150 

520151 

520152 

520153 

520154 

520155 

520156 

520157 

520158 

520159 

520160 

520161 

520162 

520163 

520164 

520165 

520166 

520167 

520168 

520169 

520170 

520171 

520172 

520173 

C 

c 

c 

c 

c 

c 

c 

-

c 

c 

c 

c 

c 

c 

c 

c 

c 

*.14779, -14259. -13758, .13275, 

*.12359. .11924, .11505, .11101, 

*. 10335, .09972. .09621, .09283, 

*.08642, .08339. .08046, .07763. 

*.07227, .06973, .06728, .06492, 

HDGV 

*.17251, .16185, .15185. .14246, 

''-12539, .11764, .11037, -10355, 

''-.09114, .08551, .08022, .07526, 

ft.06625, .06215, .05831, .05471, 

*.04815, .04517, .04238, .03976, 

DATA V56MAR/ 

LDDV 

'•-.17825, .16478, .15233, .14081, 

*.12033. -11124, .10283, .09506, 

ft.08123, .07509. .06942, .06417, 

ft.05484, .05069, .04686, .04332, 

ft.03702, .03422, .03163, .02924, 

LDOT 

ft.21004, .19125. .17415, .15858, 

*.13149, .11973. .10902, .09927, 

ft.08231, .07495. .06825. .06215. 

*.05153, .04692, .04272, .03890, 

ft.03226, .02937, .02675. .02435. 

DATA V78MAR/ 

HDDV 

Warning: There are no default HDDV 

them or they are computed 

ft .000, .000, .000, .000, .000, , 

ft .000, .000, .000, .000, .000, , 

ft .000, .000, .000, .000, .000, 

MC 

ft.04786, .04475, .04164, .03853, 

ft.03232, .02921, .02611, .02300, 

ft.01678, .01368, .00000, .00000, 

ft.00000, .00000, .00000, .00000, 

ft.00000, .00000, .00000, .00000, 

.12809, 

.10711, 

.08957. 

.07490, 

.06264, 

.13365, 

.09715. 

.07061, 

.05132. 

.03730/ 

.13017. 

,08788. 

.05932. 

.04005, 

.02703, 

.14440, 

.09040, 

-05659, 

.03543, 

.02218/ 

MAR values. Either the user supplies 

by subroutine HDDMAR. See BD26. 

000, .000, .000, .000, .000, 

000, .000, .000, .000, .000, 

.03543. 

.01989. 

.00000, 

.00000, 

.00000/ 

Vehicle registration distributions (enter unmodified data) 

DATA JULMYR/ 

LDGV 

*.049,.079,.083,.082,.084,.081,. 

*.037,.024,.019,. 014,.015,.Oil,. 

LDGT1 

*.O63,.084,.084,.084,.084,.069,. 

*.046,.036,.028,.017,-022,.017.-

LDGT2 

ft.054,.072,.072,.072,.072,.052,. 

*.049,.039,.030,.018,.023,.018,. 

HDGV 

ft.023,.047,-047,.047,.047,.038,. 

ft.058,.051,.038,.043,.041,.035.• 

LDDV 

*.049,.079..083,.082..084,. 081,. 

ft.037, .024,.019,.014,.015..Oil,. 

LDDT 

ft.063,.084,.084,.084,.084,.069,. 

077..056,.050,.051,.050, 

008,.006,.005,.004,.003, 

059,.044,.036,.031,.030, 

014,.009,.008,.008,.005, 

050,.034,.054,.031,.028, 

015,.009,.008,.009,.006, 

033,.021,.026,.029,.034, 

029,.021,.022,.022,.014, 

077..056..050,.051,.050, 

008,.006,.005..004,.003. 

.054,.047. 

.010, 

.053,-047, 

.025, 

.080,.084, 

.026, 

.064,.054, 

.117, 

.054,.047. 

.010, 

059,.044,.036,.031..030,.053.-047, 
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P.8 

survival rates (from ORNL Transportation Energy Data Book) 

0 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9 

10 

11 

12 

13 

14 

15 

16 

17 

18 

19 

20 

21 

22 

23 

24 

25 

LDV 

1 

0.99559 

0.98888 

0.97874 

0.96361 

0.94142 

0.90971 

0.86602 

0.80861 

0.73753 

0.65539 

0.56717 

0.47894 

0.39608 

0.32221 

0.25893 

0.20626 

0.16332 

0.1288 

0.1013 

0.07952 

0.06236 

0.04886 

0.03827 

0.02996 

0.02345 

LDT 

1 

0.99688 

0.99228 

0.98557 

0.97591 

0.96226 

0.94343 

0.9183 

0.88609 

0.84671 

0.80092 

0.7503 

0.69687 

0.64268 

0.58944 

0.53838 

0.49029 

0.44557 

0.40434 

0.36656 

0.33209 

0.30073 

0.27225 

0.24641 

0.223 

0.20179 

HDV 

1 

0.99751 

0.99369 

0.9879 

0.97923 

0.96654 

0.94848 

0.92376 

0.89154 

0.85182 

0.80569 

0.75505 

0.70215 

0.64905 

0.59734 

0.54805 

0.50178 

0.45877 

0.41907 

0.38257 

0.34911 

0.3185 

0.29052 

0.26498 

0.24166 

0.22039 

01/20/94 10:05 AM MILEAGE.WK4 
P.9 

mileage accumulation 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9 

10 

11 

12 

13 

14 

15 

16 

17 

18 

19 

20 

21 

22 

23 

24 

25 

sun 

NP\ 

LDV 

14,327 

13,461 

12,601 

11,737 

10,847 

9,915 

8,929 

7,885 

6,804 

5,719 

4,681 

3,739 

2,925 

2,251 

1,711 

1,289 

966 

721 

600 

398 

295 

219 

162 

120 

89 

122,390 

83,495 

LDT 

15,196 

14,322 

13,472 

12,635 

11,802 

10,964 

10,112 

9,248 

8,377 

7,512 

6,673 

5,878 

5,142 

4,474 

3,877 

3,351 

2,890 

2,490 

2,143 

1,844 

1,586 

1,364 

1,173 

1,009 

867 

158,399 

99,329 

LHDGV 

14,733 

14,149 

13,559 

12,955 

12,326 

11,660 

10,950 

10,194 

9,399 

8,579 

7,754 

6,949 

6,183 

5,472 

4,822 

4,237 

3,716 

3,253 

2,846 

2,487 

2,173 

1,898 

1,658 

1,448 

1,264 

174,665 

105,893 

HHDGV 

17,208 

16,083 

15,001 

13,950 

12,918 

11,893 

10,867 

9,840 

8,821 

7,827 

6,882 

6,004 

5,207 

4,496 

3,870 

3,324 

2,851 

2,444 

2,093 

1,792 

1,534 

1,312 

1,123 

961 

822 

169,121 

107,704 

percent accumulation 

LDV 

11.71% 

11.00% 

10.30% 

9.59% 

8.86% 

8.10% 

7.30% 

6.44% 

5.56% 

4.67% 

3.83% 

3.06% 

2.39% 

1.84% 

1.40% 

1.05% 

0.79% 

0.59% 

0.49% 

0.33% 

0.24% 

0.18% 

0.13% 

0.10% 

0.07% 

100.0% 

LDT 

9.59% 

9.04% 

8.50% 

7.98% 

7.45% 

6.92% 

6.38% 

5.84% 

5.29% 

4.74% 

4.21% 

3.71% 

3.25% 

2.82% 

2.45% 

2.12% 

1.82% 

1.57% 

1.35% 

1.16% 

1.00% 

0.86% 

0.74% 

0.64% 

0.55% 

100.0% 

LHDGV 

8.43% 

8.10% 

7.76% 

7.42% 

7.06% 

6.68% 

6.27% 

5.84% 

5.38% 

4.91% 

4.44% 

3.98% 

3.54% 

3.13% 

2.76% 

2.43% 

2.13% 

1.86% 

1.63% 

1.42% 

1.24% 

1.09% 

0.95% 

0.83% 

0.72% 

100.0% 

HHDGV 

10.17% 

9.51% 

8.87% 

8.25% 

7.64% 

7.03% 

6.43% 

5.82% 

5.22% 

4.63% 

4.07% 

3.55% 

3.08% 

2.66% 

2.29% 

1.97% 

1.69% 

1.44% 

1.24% 

1.06% 

0.91% 

0.78% 

0.66% 

0.57% 

0.49% 

100.0% 

01/20/94 10:05 AM MILEAGE.WK4