Back-to-back wins in

Democratic presidential race

Washington—The New Hampshire

primary—the first in the nation’s 2004

presidential campaign—gave Democratic

Massachusetts Senator John Kerry a 13-

percent margin of victory January 27,

more than doubling the number suggested

by some news media exit polls.

Kerry won 39 percent of the

Democratic ballots—cast by more than

200,000 voters—while former Vermont

Governor Howard Dean had 26 percent.

The other active challengers in New

Hampshire—retired General Wesley

Clark, North Carolina Senator John Edwards and Connecticut Senator Joe

Lieberman—split most of the balance. 

There also were a smattering of votes for Ohio Congressman Dennis

Inside This Issue:

• New Hampshire Primary 

2004: The Results . . . . . page 1

• A Look Ahead: 

Seven States Select a 

Democratic Candidate 

on February 3 . . . . . . . . . page 1

• Campaign Highlight: 

Presidential Candidates 

Use A Variety of Campaign

Tactics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . page 4

Election

FOCUS

JANUARY 28, 2004 U.S. Department of State ISSUE 1 • NO 3

On February 3 voters in Arizona,

Delaware, Missouri, New Mexico,

North Dakota, Oklahoma and South

Carolina will vote on their preference

for a Democratic nominee in primaries

and caucuses. These elections will be

important indicators of how different

regions of the U.S. view the

Democratic race.

South Carolina is the first state 

to hold an election in which large

numbers of African Americans are

expected to vote, possibly accounting

A Look Ahead: 

Seven States Select a Democratic

Candidate on February 3

(continued on page 3)

(continued on page 2)

To receive this newsletter 

via a listserv go to:

http://lists.state.gov/archives/election2004.html

Democratic presidential hopeful Senator John Kerry 

celebrates his primary victory in Manchester, New

Hampshire on Tuesday, January 27.© AP/WWP

Kerry Follows Iowa With Big 

New Hampshire Victory

FAST FACTS:

✔ Earlier Selection of Democratic

Presidential Candidate:

● In 1976, 19 percent of the

Democratic National Convention

(DNC) delegates were selected by 

week six during the primary and

caucus season.

● In 2004, 58 percent of the DNC 

delegates were selected by week

six, and 72 percent were selected

by week seven.

— (from a Brookings Institution briefing by

William G. Mayer, associate professor of 

political science, Northeastern University,

Boston, MA) 

http://www.brookings.edu/comm/events/20040114.htm
ELECTION FOCUS 2004

2 ELECTION FOCUS 2004

The U.S. Department of State is pleased to present its election coverage newsletter, Election Focus 2004. The 

newsletter will provide non-partisan coverage of the U.S. election process, featuring articles, interviews, public opinion

polls, and other information on the presidential primaries, debates, conventions and campaign activities of the major 

presidential candidates.

Election Focus 2004 is produced by the Democracy and Human Rights team in the Bureau of International Information

Programs.

If you are interested in receiving this newsletter via a listserv, please send your request to:

http://lists.state.gov/archives/election2004.html

— BUREAU OF —

INTERNATIONAL 

INFORMATION

PROGRAMS

THE DEPARTMENT OF STATE

Washington, DC 20547

http://usinfo.state.gov

Kucinich, the Reverend Al Sharpton

and several dozen “other” candidates—citizens who paid $1,000 each

to place their names on the ballot and

be able to say they ran for the presidency of the United States.

Up until the polls opened, political

observers thought that while Kerry

would repeat his victory of eight days

earlier in the Iowa Caucuses, all indications were it would be a closer race.

Tracking polls suggested a six-percent

margin. But predictions are really 

difficult to determine in New

Hampshire, because it is one of 

several states that allow independent

voters to participate in a party’s 

primary, and they have a track record

of waiting until the last minute to

make up their minds on whom to 

support. Independents account for 

37 percent of the state’s voters.

Four years ago, when the

Republican primary was in play in

New Hampshire, most independents

joined that contest to lead to Arizona

Senator John McCain’s first place 

finish. George W. Bush, the ultimate

Republican nominee and presidential

winner, went on after the New

Hampshire primary to capture the

South Carolina and other state 

primaries.

This time, on the Republican side,

Bush had no substantive opposition:

less than 35,000 voters cast ballots, 

87 percent of them for the president.

Polls open in New Hampshire

early in the morning on primary day

and remain open until evening. But in

the northern hamlet of Dixville Notch,

where only about three dozen voters

live, residents have made it a practice

of showing up at the stroke of midnight and voting en masse while

journalists observe and record the

event. Here, Clark gained eight votes

to three for Kerry, while Bush captured 11 on the Republican ballot. 

In New Hampshire, as in Iowa, 

the Democratic candidates practiced

“retail politics,” what political observer Michael Barone calls their personal

meetings on street corners with individual voters to shake hands and share

ideas. Additionally, campaign volunteers assisted by mailing literature,

making phone calls to voters and

knocking on doors of homes. The 

system was installed years ago as a

way to keep political party leaders

from directly selecting presidential

nominees.

The January 27 contest involved

not only an indication of Kerry’s 

popularity, but also the selection of a

proportional number of the state’s

allotted 22 delegates to the Democratic

National Convention who are pledged

to vote for him. The magic number of

delegates needed for the Democratic

nomination this year is 2,161.

As the unofficial results in New

Hampshire trickled in, Kerry’s supporters who gathered in a hotel

ballroom were ecstatic. The other

gatherings were less joyful but the

candidates managed to put on happy,

smiling faces as they thanked their

cheering supporters and pledged to

continue the fight. Each of them said

he was the one candidate who could

bring change to American government.

While political observers believe

Dean’s finishes in Iowa and New

Hampshire to be “two back-to-back

setbacks,” considering his front-runner

status earlier in the year, he was more

positive, saying he regained momentum with his jump from third place to

second.

On February 3, primaries or caucuses will be held in seven states,

involving the selection of 269 convention delegates. The candidates no

longer will have the luxury of retail

politics and will have to fly from state

to state, making as many airport rallies

and television interviews as they can

before moving on. Their schedules

this week will take them to Arizona,

Delaware, Missouri, New Mexico,

North Dakota, Oklahoma and South

Carolina. 

What the Democratic candidates

now need are the three M’s, says CNN

political analyst Carlos Watson—

“Money, Media and Momentum.” ■

(continued from page 1)
ELECTION FOCUS 2004

HTTP://USINFO.STATE.GOV 3

for as many as half of those who cast

ballots. The results in South Carolina

may thus reflect which Democratic

candidate this important minority will

favor in later primaries throughout the

South and elsewhere.

In the January 13 non-binding

Democratic primary in the District of

Columbia, which also has a significant

African American population, former

Vermont Governor Howard Dean and

Reverend Al Sharpton came out on

top, although only 8 percent of eligible

voters participated and several of the

candidates declined to participate. 

Senator John Edwards (North

Carolina), who was born in South

Carolina, is currently expected to put

in a strong showing there on February

3. A poll taken in January put

Edwards in second place, in a tie with

former General Wesley Clark. Dean

was first, and Sharpton fourth. But

Edwards’ surprisingly strong finish in

Iowa, second only to Massachusetts

Senator John Kerry, and Dean’s

decline there will no doubt alter these

rankings going into new Hampshire.

Jobs and unemployment are predicted to be key issues in South

Carolina, where it is estimated that

more than 100,000 jobs in the textile

industry have been lost since 2000.

Candidates have proposed various job

creation and protection plans to court

voters affected by these changes.

In Missouri, Representative Dick

Gephardt was considered to be a sure

winner in his home state’s primary

until his withdrawal from the race following his poor Iowa showing. Now,

other Democratic candidates are vying

for voters’ attention in Missouri and

for Gephardt’s endorsement. Gephardt

has said he will support the eventual

Democratic nominee but has so far

declined to endorse any of his rivals. 

In the West, important issues

include immigration, border security,

Native American affairs and water.

Minority voters will play a significant

role in many of these states. In

Arizona, for example, 27 percent of

the population is Hispanic and 5 percent is Native American. New Mexico

has an even larger concentration of

Hispanics, more than 42 percent.

New Mexico Governor Bill

Richardson, a Democrat and the 

country’s only Hispanic governor,

believes the Hispanic vote will be

decisive in several states. “I believe

Hispanics will be the key voting bloc

in four battleground states—in New

Mexico, Arizona, Nevada and

Florida,” he says. “And I believe those

states will decide the presidency.”

The seven states voting on

February 3 have 47 Electoral College

votes combined, more than four times

what Iowa and New Hampshire

together are allotted. Despite these relatively modest numbers (it will take

270 electoral votes to win the presidency), the primary and caucus results

will be important bellwethers of how

voters in these regions view the contest for the Democratic Party nominee.

Although President Bush has 

virtually no competition for the

Republican nomination, he or his 

campaign managers have visited some

of the states scheduled to vote on

February 3. Bush traveled to Arizona

and New Mexico in the days following

his State of the Union address to push

his proposed immigration policy and

his new job-training program, both of

which are of great interest to Hispanic

voters. ■

(continued from page 1)

A Look Ahead: Seven 

States Select a Democratic

Candidate on February 3

“I believe Hispanics 

will be the key voting bloc

in four battleground states—

New Mexico, Arizona,

Nevada and Florida. And 

I believe those states will

decide the presidency.”

— New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson, 

a Democrat and the only Hispanic 

governor in the U.S.
ELECTION FOCUS 2004

4 ELECTION FOCUS 2004

During the 2004 presidential election, the candidates will use a variety of

more sophisticated campaign tools

ranging from television, radio and print

advertising to polls, focus groups,

Internet chat rooms and mass mailings,

among others.

But despite these contemporary

methods of reaching voters, the oldfashioned way of “meeting and

greeting” still proves to be a successful

strategy. For instance, Connecticut

Senator Joseph Lieberman's daughter,

Rebecca, has held "house parties" in

Arizona, where she answers questions

from participants about her father’s

political views. Arizona is among the

six states which will hold Democratic

primaries on February 3. North Dakota

will also hold a caucus that day.

Such a hands-on approach does

work to energize voters, as evidenced

by a Washington Post report which

says, “Arizona is the largest state

where no candidate has a geographic

connection and where the population is

so diverse that it will test the candidates’ ability to reach a wide range of

voters. Voters here seem to be waiting

to be impressed.” 

Other candidates besides

Lieberman have also used a personal

touch to pitch their platforms in

Arizona. Massachusetts Senator John

Kerry’s campaign workers have repeatedly phoned households throughout the

state seeking support for the candidate. 

And while personally connecting

with voters almost always wins some

converts, most candidates just don’t

have the time to meet and greet large

numbers of voters, unless they attend

rallies or other town-hall style meetings in cities and towns throughout a

state.

Instead, they rely on radio and television ads in various markets, which

present information in one-minute

spots about the candidates and their

views. Such ads often criticize the

claims of their rivals, but sometimes

such back and forth verbal assaults can

actually hurt a candidate.

This was most evident after the

recent Iowa caucuses, when former

Vermont Governor Howard Dean and

Missouri Congressman Richard Gephardt

(who considered Iowa possibly an easy

win, because of its close proximity to

his home state), finished a surprising

third and fourth. Gephardt has since

dropped out of the race. But prior to

the caucuses, Dean and Gephardt often

harshly criticized one another. “They all

learned that lesson,” Donna Brazile, a

Democratic consultant who ran Al Gore’s

2000 campaign, told the Associated

Press. “So they’re all playing it safe

and running soft-and-fuzzy messages.” 

Some candidates take image polishing a step further. For instance, former

General Wesley Clark has issued mass

mailings of 50,000 copies of “American

Son,” a 15-minute video about his life.

The filmmaker, Linda Bloodworth

Thompson, also created a similar video

for former President Bill Clinton when

he ran for president in 1992. 

John Kerry, who is viewed by many

voters as having only the interests of

the East Coast at heart, has tried hard to

broaden his appeal. Kerry, who voted

for the October 2002 congressional

authorization allowing President Bush

to go to war in Iraq, has now become

critical of sending more troops there.

To strengthen his position, before the

Iowa caucuses, Kerry, himself a decorated veteran of the Vietnam War,

appealed to veterans there with 26,000

videos, detailing his military service.

Kerry’s down-home approach seems

to have benefited his campaign. Over

the last month, he trailed Howard Dean

by as much as 30 points in the polls.

But Kerry’s Iowa caucuses win on

January 19 propelled him to first place

among Democrats. According to a

recent Gallup poll, he led Dean by 13

percentage points going into the New

Hampshire primary.

Although such traditional methods

can be very effective, “virtual” campaigns are beginning to wield significant

influence, also. In fact, the Internet has

proven to be a potent organizing and

fundraising tool, where cyber activists

increasingly play an important role.

In his article, “The Marketing of 

a President,” Edward Cone, a former

writer for Forbes Magazine, says that

“Online tools are a way to get people

to act—to meet in the physical world,

to put up flyers and posters, write letters and checks, speak to other people

face to face. And ultimately, to get out

and vote.”

Such tools can lead to more and

more contacts using relatively easy and

cost-effective methods. For instance,

an “e-precinct” is created when a campaign volunteer utilizes the names in

Presidential Candidates Use 

A Variety of Campaign Tactics

Campaign★★Highlight
ELECTION FOCUS 2004

HTTP://USINFO.STATE.GOV 5

his/her e-mail address book to generate

more support for a candidate.

“Television, radio, print and mail can

create awareness and desire for a product,” Cone says. “Senders control the

presentation and, if intelligently worded and presented, the messages cause

an individual or company to vote with

its dollars, by buying the product....

With the Internet, an effective campaign creates a community that will on

its own begin to market your product

for you. Properly done, you won’t be

able- or want- to control it.”

In fact, the Internet has been the

star in Howard Dean’s campaign. He

set a new online record by raising the

most money of any Democratic presidential candidate in a single quarter—

$15.4 million in the final three months

of 2003. And with a first and second

place showing in the Iowa caucuses,

both John Kerry and North Carolina

Senator John Edwards became suddenly more attractive to Internet donors,

garnering $300,000 and $250,000

respectively the day after the caucuses.

Since then, according to CNN.com,

the large online bookstore, Amazon.com,

has launched a website where anyone

can contribute between $5 and $200 to

the presidential candidate of their choice.

Contributors can also read about each

candidate, and see how much money or

the number of donations the candidates

have received on their personal websites.

The relatively new use of web logs

(known as “weblogs” or “blogs”), or

diaries of a candidate’s daily activities,

has also contributed to advancing a

candidate within the web community.

John Edwards and his wife, Elizabeth,

started writing daily blogs in

November, detailing their day-to-day

activities. Former General Wesley

Clark has also built a cyber community

that organizes, operates and votes

offline.

Regardless of what methods the

2004 presidential candidates use however, it is clear that now, more than

ever, they understand the importance

of using the entire range of tactics to

reach as many voters as possible. ■