Inside This Issue:

• Bush, Kerry Gear Up for Final

Days of Campaign. . . . . page 1

• Economic Issues and the 

2004 Campaign . . . . . . . page 1

• Campaign Highlight: 

The Fight For the Battleground

States . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . page 4

Election

FOCUS

October 19, 2004 U.S. Department of State ISSUE 1 • NO 15

Economic Issues 

and the 2004 Campaign

(continued on page 2)

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President Bush waves to supporters as he arrives 

at a campaign rally Tuesday, October 19, 2004 in 

St. Petersburg, Florida. (AP Photo/Pablo Martinez

Monsivais)

Bush, Kerry Gear Up for Final

Days of Campaign

FAST FACTS:

✔ Between August and October

2004, 87 percent of presidential

election advertisements have run

in markets that contain only 27

percent of the electorate.

—Nielsen-Monitor Plus and the University

of Wisconsin Advertising Project

Democratic presidential candidate Sen. John Kerry

greets supporters at an early vote kickoff rally in

Orlando, Florida on Monday, Oct. 18, 2004. 

(AP Photo/Gerald Herbert)

(continued on page 2)

National polls show a statistical dead heat between the two major candidates

with less than two weeks to go until the 2004 presidential elections. President

George Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney and their Democratic challengers

Senators John Kerry and John Edwards face a competitive and dramatic final

stretch of their election campaigns. 

The last of three presidential debates concluded on October 13 with a debate

Voters’ concerns about their jobs, businesses, government benefits, taxes and

general economic conditions are always extremely important in U.S. presidential

elections. This year, the economy along with terrorism and the war in Iraq are

the important issues in the campaign, according to a variety of polls. President

Bush and Senator Kerry have both stressed economic issues in the debates and on

the campaign trail, offering competing policies on taxes, health care and other

government programs.

The 2004 campaign’s economic policy debate goes back to 2000, when the

U.S. economy reached the end of an extended low inflation, high growth expansion. Rising tax revenues – bolstered by tax revenues from capital gains as
ELECTION FOCUS 2004

2 ELECTION FOCUS 2004

on domestic issues in Tempe, Arizona.

The debate demonstrated the marked

differences between the candidates and

signaled the beginning of their final

sprint to Election Day on November 2.

The candidates reached a nationwide

audience during the series of debates,

outlining both their foreign and domestic platforms, and are now—along with

their families and supporters—devoting most of their time and money to

winning the vote in the 10 so-called

swing states that many experts say will

decide the 2004 election.

According to a study by Nielsen

Monitor-plus and the University of

Wisconsin Advertising Project

released on October 12, Colorado,

Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota,

New Mexico, Nevada, Ohio,

Wisconsin and Pennsylvania are key

swing states in the upcoming election

with both campaigns directing the

bulk of their media advertising to

these states. 

“The end-game of this advertising

battle is now purely about reaching the

270 Electoral College votes needed, and

focusing resources on the handful of

states where the result remains in any

doubt,” said Professor Ken Goldstein,

director of the project and political science professor at the University of

Wisconsin-Madison. A candidate needs

270 of the total 538 Electoral College

votes to win the election.

Voters in Ohio and Florida—states

that the Wisconsin study has described

as “the center of the advertising

storm”—have been the most inundated

by political advertisements, since five

of the top ten advertising markets in

this campaign are cities in those states.

Many residents find the ads helpful,

but at times overwhelming. “The ads

can be pretty influential in terms of

focusing on the main issues that voters

really care about,” said Anne Marie

Mulcahy, an Immigration attorney

from Miami Beach, Florida. “But at

some point after hearing these ads day

in and day out, I think voters get

advertisement fatigue.” In Ohio and

Florida, the candidates spent over 19

million dollars in television 

advertisements alone the week before

the final debate, airing ads a total of

17,000 times.

Ohio and Florida together control

47 Electoral College votes, but heavy

media campaigns are also taking place

in states such as New Mexico and

Nevada which have only five electoral

votes each. With the election generally

predicted to be extremely close, campaign strategists are angling for every

electoral vote they can get. 

In addition to a media blitz during

the run-up to November 2, candidates

are traveling non-stop to reach as many

voters in person as possible. John Kerry

kicked off a nine-day tour of seven

swing states—Nevada, Wisconsin, Ohio,

Florida, Pennsylvania, Minnesota and

Iowa—on October 14. President Bush

the week of October 18 campaigned in

New Jersey, Florida, Iowa and

Minnesota. Both Bush and Kerry have

made more than a dozen visits each to

Florida since March.

Both parties are also focusing their

attention on voter turnout and are

organizing efforts to register voters,

especially their core constituencies, to

encourage them to vote early where

allowed and to help them get to the

polls on Election Day if needed. In six

states—Idaho, Maine, Minnesota, New

Hampshire, Wisconsin, and

Wyoming—voters can register as late

as Election Day itself, making predicting eventual winners even less reliable.

Groups that are especially being

targeted by Republicans include

Evangelical Christians, who experts

say overwhelmingly support President

Bush but had a low turnout in the 2000

election. Democrats are reaching out in

similar fashion to minority voters, one

of their core constituencies, especially

in urban areas of the country. ■

The U.S. Department of State is pleased to present its election coverage newsletter, Election Focus 2004. The 

newsletter will provide non-partisan coverage of the U.S. election process, featuring articles, interviews, public opinion

polls, and other information on the presidential primaries, debates, conventions and campaign activities of the major 

presidential candidates.

Election Focus 2004 is produced by the Democracy and Human Rights team in the Bureau of International Information

Programs.

If you are interested in receiving this newsletter via a listserv, please send your request to:

www.usembassy.de/germany/mailinglists.html

— BUREAU OF —

INTERNATIONAL 

INFORMATION

PROGRAMS

THE DEPARTMENT OF STATE

(continued from page 1)

(continued from page 1)

Economic Issues and the

2004 Campaign

investors cashed in on the stock market boom—had made it possible for

the U.S. government to run a surplus

from 1998 to 2001, the first in 29

years. But, the expansion had run its

course by the time President Bush

took office, and the economy slipped

into recession for most of 2001.

Unemployment rose and the stock

market declined by 15 percent. The

September 11 attacks greatly exacerbated the economic conditions. 
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USA.USEMBASSY.DE 3

The cornerstone of President

Bush’s first term domestic economic

policy has been to reinvigorate the

economy through four successive tax

cuts. Bush argues that these tax reductions, by leaving more money with

individuals and businesses, will enable

them to spend and invest and thereby

stimulate job-creating growth, which

in turn will produce more tax revenue.

The cuts have reduced taxes by nearly

$600 billion during Bush’s term,

according to the Office of

Management and Budget. And while

the impact of the tax cuts is hard to

precisely assess, the cuts, along with

the increased federal spending and the

Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts,

have contributed to the continued

growth since 2001. The Congressional

Budget Office is forecasting a 4.5 percent expansion in 2004, the biggest

since the 2001 downturn.

Concerns about the economy continue, however, spurred by slow job creation and slow increases in employee

compensation, while the budget deficit

grows. Kerry has charged that Bush is

the first president in 72 years to preside

over an economy that has lost jobs,

although the President counters that the

most recent Bureau of Labor Statistics

figures show increases in jobs.

President Bush has stood by his

tax cut policy as the correct measure

to get the economy growing, arguing

that the government spends the taxpayers’ money and with tax cuts, the

taxpayers can keep more of their

money and can spend it as they wish.

“It’s your money,” he said in the

October 13 debate in Tempe, Arizona

Kerry says that the Bush tax cuts

have mostly benefited the richest 2

percent of the country, and if he is

elected, will instead adjust the tax cuts

so that they go the middle class, by

giving a tax cut to Americans who

earn under $200,000 a year. He will

also increase certain tax benefits for

middle class families for expenses

such as childcare and college tuition.

Kerry has also pledged to work to stop

companies from sending jobs overseas

by eliminating tax incentives he said

encourage U.S. companies to ship jobs

out of the country. Kerry also said he

will protect American jobs by enforcing U.S. trade agreements.

Both Bush and Kerry also pledge

to take steps to expand health benefits,

get coverage for people who don’t have

health insurance, implement measures

to control costs, and improve access to

pharmaceuticals, although their plans

to achieve these goals differ.

Reduced tax revenues, the costs of

the War on Terror and in Iraq, and

other spending increases reduced the

surplus, which peaked at $236 billion

in 2000, to a $415 billion fiscal deficit

in 2004. While this is the highest 

dollar amount ever, the 2004 deficit

amounts to 3.6 percent of GDP, well

below the worse deficit in 1983, which

was six percent of GDP. Both Bush

and Kerry have promised to cut the

deficit in half during the next four

years. Bush promises to do so by progrowth policies and by encouraging

“fiscal sanity” in the Congress. Kerry

said his plan on the deficit includes

ending tax cuts for the wealthiest, ending tax breaks to big corporations, and

imposing a real cap on spending.

The pressures on the U.S. budget

will sharply increase by the end of the

2004-2008 presidential term as the

first members of the baby boom generation born between 1946 and 1964

start retiring. These retirements will

put greater and prolonged pressure on

the budget as payments for the Social

Security income insurance program

and old age medical programs, such as

Medicare, sharply increase even as the

number of taxpayers decreases. ■

“The end-game of this

advertising battle is now

purely about reaching the

270 Electoral College votes

needed, and focusing

resources on the handful of

states where the result

remains in any doubt.”

—Professor Ken Goldstein, 

Director of the University of Wisconsin

Advertising Project
As the November 2 presidential

election draws near, President Bush and

his Democratic challenger, Senator

John Kerry, are directing their

resources and time to a few crucial

“battleground” or “swing” states which

experts say either candidate could win

on election day. While there is no consensus on the number of battleground

states—up to 17 states are typically

cited as being in this group—pollsters

differ on which are the swing states,

and they can change as the campaign

develops. Republican and Democratic

strategists, however, have their own lists

and are directing political advertisements and candidate visits to states

where they believe they can achieve

victory.

A study by Nielsen Monitor-plus

and the University of Wisconsin

Advertising Project published on

October 12 named Colorado, Florida,

Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, New

Mexico, Nevada, Ohio, Wisconsin and

Pennsylvania as the key swing states

where the campaigns are directing the

bulk of their media advertising. Many

experts also cite West Virginia, Oregon

and New Hampshire as battleground

states. 

Battleground states do not have 

to have a large number of Electoral

College votes. The 2004 election is

expected to be close, so even a small

state with a few Electoral College votes

can give the candidate the winning

margin. 

Here is a look at some of the issues

in each of these battleground states:

OHIO

President Bush defeated former

Vice President Al Gore in 2000 in

Ohio—a state with 27 Electoral

College votes—by less than three perELECTION FOCUS 2004

4 ELECTION FOCUS 2004

Campaign★★Highlight

The Battleground States
ELECTION FOCUS 2004

USA.USEMBASSY.DE 5

cent of the vote, and has visited the

state more than 14 times since he was

elected. 

Key issues for Ohioans include

the loss of manufacturing jobs—about

265,000 since 2000—and high 

unemployment. Experts believe that

the record number of new voter 

registrations—the state has recorded

over 600,000 new voters as of October

4—will determine the outcome of the

presidential election in Ohio this year.

FLORIDA

The extremely close vote and 

controversial recounts in 2000 highlighted the impact that a single state

can have on the election's outcome. 

In the 2004 campaign, both 

candidates are addressing Florida’s

large immigrant population. Bush is

promoting a “guest-worker” plan—

officially known as the Border

Security and Immigration

Improvement Act, while Kerry is 

promoting “earned citizenship”—

legalization and citizenship reform 

for undocumented immigrants.

The state's large senior citizen

population, a major voting bloc, will

be looking at the candidates' positions

on such issues as Medicare, prescription drugs and proposals to partially

privatize the investment of Social

Security funds. Other significant

Florida constituencies are AfricanAmericans, Cuban-Americans and 

veterans. 

Many experts cite the popularity

of Florida Governor Jeb Bush

(President Bush’s brother)—especially

after his widely praised handling of

the series of hurricanes that struck

Florida this year—as a potential factor

in the Republican party’s chances to

secure the 27 Electoral College votes

in this state.

PENNSYLVANIA

In the past three presidential elections, Democrats won this state's 21

electoral votes. Registered Democratic

voters outnumber registered

Republicans by almost half a million.

However, Republican presidential candidates carried Pennsylvania in 1980,

1984 and 1988.

The state’s older voters will be

looking at the candidates’ positions on

health care issues such as prescription

- drug legislation and Medicare, while

the state’s steel producing regions will

be concerned with trade issues. 

Democrats have three advantages

in Pennsylvania: Democratic Governor

Ed Rendell's ability to deliver votes;

the regional success of liberal voter

mobilization groups such as America

Coming Together and the Partnership

for America's Families; and the 

popularity of Teresa Heinz Kerry,

widow of the former Pennsylvania

senator John Heinz and now John

Kerry's wife.

WEST VIRGINIA

Until the 2000 presidential election, West Virginia had voted

Republican in only three of the previous 18 presidential elections, each

time for a Republican incumbent.

Economic development and the future

of the coal industry are dominant election themes in this state with five

Electoral College votes. West Virginia

has a large veteran population, and

each candidate is targeting his West

Virginia message to security and military service issues as well. 

WISCONSIN

Wisconsin has voted for the

Democratic candidate in four of the

last six presidential elections, crossing

over to support Republican Ronald

Reagan in his two landslide victories

in 1980 and 1984.

With 10 electoral votes, Wisconsin

has lost 75,000 manufacturing job

since the last presidential election.

About 12 percent of Wisconsin's voters are veterans, so the war in Iraq,

defense issues and veteran benefits 

are topics of interest.

IOWA

Iowa, with seven electoral 

votes, last voted for a Republican

presidential candidate in 1984. 

Chairman of the Bush-Cheney

2004 Iowa Leadership Team David

Roederer said that Iowa was one of

seven states where the difference

between the presidential candidates in

2000 was less than a percentage point.

The Republicans lost by 4,100 votes.

Democrats, inspired by Al Gore's 

2000 victory with the assistance of

Democratic Iowa Governor Tom

Vilsack, are campaigning on themes 

of jobs, the economy, health care,

insurance, education and opposition 

to free trade.

OREGON

Democrats have won in the last

three presidential elections in Oregon,

which has seven electoral votes.

However, Republicans won nine of the

10 elections from 1948 to 1984, with

the exception of Lyndon Johnson’s

1964 landslide victory.

Despite a liberal social record 

that includes support for same-sex

marriage, medicinal marijuana and

physician-assisted suicide, voters

defeated a plan in 2002 to raise taxes

to fund universal health care, which

some view as a sign of emerging 

fiscal conservatism.

In 2000, Gore beat Bush by less

than 7,000 votes in the state. But 

with Ralph Nader—the independent
candidate who is often cited as taking

votes away from Democratic candidates—not on the Oregon ballot in

2004, the Democrats are hopeful that

they may win the state more easily. 

NEW MEXICO

Considered a bellwether state,

New Mexico, with five electoral votes,

has supported every winning president

since 1912 except in 1976.

Democratic Governor Bill Richardson,

who is of Hispanic origin, may be

influential in delivering votes from the

largest Hispanic population in the

nation.

The “guest worker” immigration

initiative, promoted by President Bush,

and the Democratic alternative of

“earned citizenship” are designed to

appeal to Hispanic voters. 

NEW HAMPSHIRE

This traditionally conservative

state, in which Republicans outnumber

Democrats in registration 36.7 percent

to 25.6 percent, has voted for the

Republican candidate in six of the past

eight presidential elections. However,

in 1996, Bill Clinton beat Bob Dole 

by an almost 10-point margin.

New Hampshire, with a population of 1.3 million and four electoral

votes, gained over 13,000 new jobs 

in the past year, 70 percent of which

paid more than the national average.

New Hampshire has a strong 

computer-technology sector. Kerry's

proposes to strengthen this sector

through his to plan to stimulate 

economic growth by cutting taxes on

small businesses and research.

Republicans counter that President

Bush's tax cuts already have created

thousands of jobs in New Hampshire.

COLORADO

A ballot measure that would allow

Colorado to split its nine Electoral

College votes proportionally—all

other states have a winner-take-all system except for Maine and Nebraska—

has put the state in the spotlight this

election 

year. The measure will go into effect

immediately, if approved. However, 

if the presidential election’s outcome

ends up depending on Colorado’s 

electoral votes, legal challenges can 

be expected that could easily end up 

in the U.S. Supreme Court, according

to the Washington Post. 

MICHIGAN

Michigan is frequently cited as a

swing state. Voters have not supported

a Republican candidate since 1988. Al

Gore won by just five percentage

points in the 2000 election, so

Republicans view the state—and its 17

Electoral College votes—as a possible

gain in 2004. President Bush has visited the state more than 20 times.

Although Michigan has shown

some improvement in unemployment

numbers—the state’s employment rate

had been as high as 7 percent in

2003—the economy, especially job

creation, remains the key issue in 

this state known for manufacturing

automobiles. 

MINNESOTA

This state has voted Democratic 

in every election since 1972, but 

Al Gore won by only a slim margin 

in 2000. While Democrats in the past

could rely on Minnesota’s farmers and

laborers for support, the state has been

leaning increasingly Republican with

its election of a Republican governor

and senator in 2002, and an increasing

number of Republican Congressmen

and members of the state legislature.

Minnesota has 10 Electoral College

votes.

NEVADA

President Bush won Nevada in the

2000 election, but recent polls showed

Kerry gaining ground in this state with

five Electoral College votes. Both 

parties have registered a record number of voters. Democrats now outnumber Republicans in this traditionally

Republican state.

Proposals such as the U.S.

Department of Energy’s recommendation to use Nevada’s Yucca Mountain

as a depository for nuclear fuel and

waste—a measure that President Bush

supports—has made the environment a

key issue. ■

ELECTION FOCUS 2004

6 ELECTION FOCUS 2004