10

- i CHAPTER 10: NATIONAL IMPACT ANALYSIS

TABLE OF CONTENTS

10.1 INTRODUCTION ......................................................................................................... 10-1

10.2 FORECASTED ENERGY EF FICIENCIES ................................................................. 10-2

10.2.1 Clothes Dryers ............................................................................................................... 10-3

10.2.2 Room Air Conditioners .................................................................................................. 10-5

10.3 NATIONAL ENERGY SAVINGS ............................................................................... 10-8

10.3.1 Definition of National Energy Savings .......................................................................... 10-8

10.3.2 Inputs to National Energy Savings ................................................................................ 10-9

10.3.2.1 Annual Energy Consumption per Unit ........................................................ 10-9

10.3.2.2 Shipments and Equipment Stock ............................................................... 10-13

10.3.2.3 National Annual Energy Consumption ...................................................... 10-13

10.3.2.4 Site

- to -Source Energy Conversion Factors ................................................ 10-14

10.4 NET PRESENT VALUE ............................................................................................. 10-16

10.4.1 Definition of Net Present Value ................................................................................... 10-16

10.4.2 Inputs to Calculation of Net Present Value.................................................................. 10-17

10.4.2.1 Total Installed Cost per Unit ...................................................................... 10-18

10.4.2.2 Annual Operating Cost Savings per Unit................................................... 10-22

10.4.2.3 Total Increases in Annual Installed Cost ................................................... 10-22

10.4.2.4 Total Savings in Annual Operating Cost ................................................... 10-22

10.4.2.5 Discount Factors ........................................................................................ 10-23

10.4.2.6 Present Value of Costs ............................................................................... 10-23

10.4.2.7 Present Value of Savings ........................................................................... 10-24

10.5 NES AND NPV RESULTS ......................................................................................... 10-24

10.5.2 National Energy Savings Results by Efficiency Level ................................................ 10-25

10.5.2.1 Clothes Dryers ........................................................................................... 10-25

10.5.2.2 10-26

10.5.2.3 Room Air Conditioners .............................................................................. 10-26

10.5.3 Annual Costs and Savings ........................................................................................... 10-28

10.5.4 Consumer Net Present Value Results by Efficiency Level ......................................... 10-29

10.5.4.1 Clothes Dryers ........................................................................................... 10-30

10.5.4.2 Room Air Conditioners .............................................................................. 10-30

10.6 NES AND NPV RESULTS BY TRIAL STANDARD LEVEL ................................. 10-31

10.6.1 Trial Standard Levels ................................................................................................... 10-31

10.6.2 National Energy Savings Results by Trial Standard Level .......................................... 10-33

10.6.2.1 Clothes Dryers ........................................................................................... 10-33

10.6.2.2 Room Air Conditioners .............................................................................. 10-34

10.6.3 Consumer Net Present Value Results by Trial Standard Level ................................... 10-35

10.6.3.1 Clothes Dryers ........................................................................................... 10-35

10.6.3.2 Room Air Conditioners .............................................................................. 10-3610

- ii LIST OF TABLES

Table 10.2.1 Vented Dryer, Electric, Standard: Energy Efficiency Distributions in 2014 ..... 10-3

Table 10.2.2 Vented Dryer, Electric, Compact 120V: Energy Efficiency Distributions in

2014 .................................................................................................................... 10-3

Table 10.2.3 Vented Dryer, Electric, Compact 240V: Energy Efficiency Distributions in

2014 .................................................................................................................... 10-4

Table 10.2.4 Vented Dryer, Gas: Energy Efficiency Distributions in 2014 ........................... 10-4

Table 10.2.5 Vent

- less Dryer, Electric, Compact 240V: Energy Efficiency Distributions

in 2014 ............................................................................................................... 10-4

Table 10.2.6 Vent

- less Dryer, Electric, Combination Washer/Dryer: Energy Efficiency

Distributions in 2014 .......................................................................................... 10-5

Table 10.2.7 Room Air Conditioners, Without Reverse Cycle and With Louvers, Less

than 6,000 Btu/h: Energy Efficiency Distributions in 2014 .............................. 10-5

Table 10.2.8 Room Air Conditioners, Without Reverse Cycle and With Louvers, 8,000–

13,999 Btu/h: Energy Efficiency Distributions in 2014 .................................... 10-6

Table 10.2.9 Room Air Conditioners, Without Reverse Cycle and With Louvers,

20,000-24,999 Btu/h: Energy Efficiency Distributions in 2014 ........................ 10-6

Table 10.2.10 Room Air Conditioners, Without Reverse Cycle and With Louvers, 25,000

Btu/h or more: Energy Efficiency Distributions in 2014 ................................... 10-6

Table 10.2.11 Room Air Conditioners, Without Reverse Cycle and Without Louvers,

8,000–11,999 Btu/h: Energy Efficiency Distributions in 2014 ......................... 10-7

Table 10.2.12 Room Air Conditioners, Without Reverse Cycle and Without Louvers,

12,000–13,999 Btu/h: Energy Efficiency Distributions in 2014 ....................... 10-7

Table 10.3.1 Clothes Dryers: Shipments

- Weighted Average per -Unit Annual Energy

Consumption .................................................................................................... 10-10

Table 10.3.2 Room Air Conditioners: Shipments- Weighted Average per -Unit Annual

Energy Consumption in 2014, Residential Sector ........................................... 10-11

Table 10.3.3 Room Air Conditioners: Shipments- Weighted Average per -Unit Annual

Energy Consumption in 2014, Commercial Sector ......................................... 10-12

Table 10.4.1 Clothes Dryers: Shipments -Weighted Average Total Installed Costs in

2014 .................................................................................................................. 10-19

Table 10.4.2 Room Air Conditioners: Shipments- Weighted Average Total Installed

Cost in 2014 ..................................................................................................... 10-21

Table 10.5.1 Inputs to National Energy Savings and Net Present Value .............................. 10-25

Table 10.5.2 Clothes Dryers: Cumulative National Energy Savings in Quads .................... 10-26

Table 10.5.3 Clothes Dryers: Cumulative National Energy Savings in Quads,

Discounted at 3 Percent ................................................................................... 10-26

Table 10.5.4 Clothes Dryers: Cumulative National Energy Savings in Quads,

Discounted at 7 Percent ................................................................................... 10-26

Table 10.5.5 Room Air Conditioners : Cumulative National Energy Savin gs in Quads ....... 10-27

Table 10.5.6 Room Air Conditioners: Cumulative National Energy Savings in Quads,

Discounted at 3 Percent ................................................................................... 10-27

Table 10.5.7 Room Air Conditioners: Cumulative National Energy Savings in Quads,

Discounted at 7 Percent ................................................................................... 10-2810

- iii Table 10.5.8 Clothes Dryers: Cumulative Consumer Net Present Value, Discounted at 3

Percent .............................................................................................................. 10-30

Table 10.5.9 Clothes Dryers: Cumulative Consumer Net Present Value, Discounted at 7

Percent .............................................................................................................. 10-30

Table 10.5.10 Room Air Conditioners: Cumulative Consumer Net Present Value,

Discounted at 3 Percent ................................................................................... 10-31

Table 10.5.11 Room Air Conditioners: Cumulative Consumer Net Present Value,

Discounted at 7 Percent ................................................................................... 10-31

Table 10.6.1 Trial Standard Levels for Clothes Dryers ........................................................ 10-32

Ta ble 10.6.2 Trial Standard Levels for Room Air Conditioners .......................................... 10-32

Table 10.6.3 Clothes Dryers: Cumulative National Energy Savings in Quads .................... 10-33

Table 10.6.4 Clothes Dryers: Cumulative National Energy Savings in Quads,

Discounted at 3 Percent ................................................................................... 10-33

Table 10.6.5 Clothes Dryers: Cumulative National Energy Savings in Quads,

Discounted at 7 Percent ................................................................................... 10-34

Table 10.6.6 Room Air Conditioners: Cumulative National Energy Savings in Quads ....... 10-34

Table 10.6.7 Room Air Conditioners: Cumulative National Energy Savings in Quads,

Discounted at 3 Percent ................................................................................... 10-34

Table 10.6.8 Room Air Conditioners: Cumulative National Energy Savings in Quads,

Discounted at 7 Percent ................................................................................... 10-35

Table 10.6.9 Clothes Dryers: Cumulative Consumer Net Present Value, Discounted at 3

Percent .............................................................................................................. 10-35

Table 10.6.10 Clothes Dryers: Cumulative Consumer Net Present Value, Discounted at 7

Percent .............................................................................................................. 10-36

Table 10.6.11 Room Air Conditioners: Cumulative Consumer Net Present Value,

Discounted at 3 Percent ................................................................................... 10-36

Table 10.6.12 Room Air Conditioners: Cumulative Consumer Net Present Value,

Discounted at 7 Percent ................................................................................... 10-37

LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 10.2.1 Room Air Conditioners, Without Reverse Cycle and With Louvers, Less

than 6,000 Btu/h: SWEER Forecast for the Base Case and Standard Cases ..... 10-8

Figure 10.3.1 Room Air Conditioners, Without Reverse Cycle and With Louvers, Less

than 6,000 Btu/h: Unit Energy Consumption Forecast for the Base Case

and Selected Standard Cases ............................................................................ 10-13

Figure 10.3.2 Site

- to -Source Conversion Factors for Electricity – Clothes Dryers ............... 10-15

Figure 10.3.3 Site

- to -Source Conversion Factors for Electricity – Room Air

Conditioners ..................................................................................................... 10-16

Figure 10.4.1 Electric Standard Clothes Dryers: Installed Cost Forecast for the Base

Case and Selected Standard Cases ................................................................... 10-20

Figure 10.4.2 Room Air Conditioners, Without Reverse Cycle and With Louvers, Less

than 6,000 Btu/h: Installed Cost Forecast for the Base Case and Selected

Standard Cases ................................................................................................. 10-2210

- iv Figure 10.5.2 Non -Discounted Changes in Annual Installed Cost and Operating Cost for

Room Air Conditioner Product Cl ass 3 at CSL 1 ............................................ 10-2910-1 CHAPTER 10. NATIONAL IMPACT ANALYSIS

10.1 INTRODUCTION

This chapter describes t he method the U.S. Department of Energy ( DOE ) used to conduct

a national impacts analysis (NIA) of potential standard levels for room air conditioners and

clothes dryers

. DOE evaluated the following impacts: (1) national energy savings (NES)

attributable to e ach possible standard, (2) monetary value of th e energy savings to consumers of

the consider products, (3) increased total installed costs of the products because of standards, and

(4) the net present value (NPV) (the difference between the value of energy savings and

increased total installed costs ).

DOE determined the NES and NPV for all the standard levels considered for room air

conditioners and clothes dryers. DOE performed a ll calculations for each of the considered

products using a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet model, which is accessible on the Internet

( www.eere.energy.gov/buildings/appliance_standards/ ). The spreadsheets combine the

calculations for determining the NES and NPV for each considered product with input from the

appropriate shipments model. As discussed in chapter 16, the NIA model also performs the

calculations for the Regulatory Impact Analy sis. Details and instructions for using the NIA

model are provided in appendix 10- A.

Chapter 9 provides a detailed description of the shipments models that DOE used to

forecast future purchases of the considered products. Chapter 9 includes a description of the

sensitivity of shipments to total installed cost and operating cost, and how DOE captured those

sensitivities within the model.

For room air conditioners, DOE has analyzed four representative product classes in

detail. For the NIA

, DOE assigne d each of the sixteen product classes included in this

rulemaking to one of four product class groups, each of which is based on the analyses for the

four representative product classes. To estimate the national impacts of amended standards for all

the product classes considered in this rulemaking, DOE allocated the product cost and annual

energy consumption of each representative product class to all product classes within its group.

The following list indicates which product classes are associated with ea ch product class group :

• Group 1 consists of p roduct class 1: Less than 6,000 Btu/h, Without Reverse Cycle

and With Louvers

• Group 2 consists of product classes 2, 3, 4, 11, and is based on Product class 3:

8,000–13,999 Btu/h, Without Reverse Cycle and With Louvers

• Group 3 consists of product classes 5 a, 9 and 13 and is based on product class5a :

20,000-24,999 Btu/h, Without Reverse Cycle and With Louvers

• Group 4 consists of product classes 5b and 10 and is based on product class 5b:

>25,000 Btu/h, Witho ut Reverse Cycle and With Louvers

• Group 5 consists of product classes 6, 7, 8a, 12 and is based on product class 8a :

8,000–11,999 Btu/h, Without Reverse Cycle and With out Louvers10-2 • Group 6 consists of product classes 8b, 14, 15 and 16 and is based on product class

8b: 12,000–13,999 Btu/h, Without Reverse Cycle and With out Louvers

10.2 FORECASTED ENERGY EF FICIENCIES

A key component of DOE’s estimates of NES and NPV for each of the two products is

the energy efficiencies forecasted for the base case (withou t amended energy conservation

standards ) and each of the standards cases (with amended energy conservation standards ). The

forecasted energy effici ency represent s the annual shipments- weighted energy efficiency of the

product under consideration during the forecast period ( that is, from the assumed effective date

of a n amended standard to 30 years after that date ).

For calculating the NES, per-unit average annual energy consumption is a direct function

of product energy effici ency

. For the NPV, the per- unit total installed cost is a direct function of

energy efficiency ; the per-unit annual operating cost, because it is a function of per-unit annual

energy consumption, is indirectly dependent on product energy efficiency . The above NES and

NPV inputs, as well as all other inputs to the calculation of NES and NPV, are discussed further

in sections 10.3 and 10.4.

To forecast the base

- case energy efficienc y for each product class, DOE us ed as a starting

point the shipments- weighted energy efficiency for 2014. To represent the distribution of product

energy efficiencies in 2014 , DOE used the same market shares as in the base case for the life

cycle cost ( LCC ) analysis (see c hapter 8). Based on recent trends, DOE assumed no

improvement of energy efficiency in the base case for clothes dryers. For room air conditioners,

an annual growth rate of 0.25% was applied between 2014 and 2044.

For clothes dryers, in order to forecast standards- case energy effici encies, DOE used a

“ro ll -up” scenario to establish the shipments-weighted average energy effici ency for the year that

energy conservation standards are assumed to become effective ( 2014 ). In this approach, product

energy efficiencies in the base case that d o not meet the standard level under consideration

would “roll up” to meet the new standard level. Product energy effici encies in the base case that

exceeded the standard level under consideration would not be affected.

For room air conditioners, in addition to a “roll-up” scenario, DOE developed a shift

scenario. In the shift scenario DOE applies an annual growth rate in average energy efficiency to

the SWEER , as it is done in the base case. To develop standards case forecasted SWEERs, DOE

developed growth trends for each can didate standard level that maintained the same per

- unit average

total installed cost difference for the year 2014 between the base case and each standards case over

the entire forecast period (2014–2044). DOE’s approach for developing standards case SWE ER s in

this manner assumes that the rate of adoption of more efficient products under the standards case can

occur only at a rate which ensures that the average total installed cost difference between the

standards case and base case over the entire forecast period is held constant. Because the total

installed cost versus efficiency relationship for each product class demonstrates an increasing cost

rate for more efficient products, the SW EER growth rate for each standards case is lower than the

SWE ER growth r ate for the base case.10-3 The following sections detail the energy effici enc y forecasts that DOE developed for the

two products.

10.2.1 Clothes Dryers

Table 10.2.1 through Table 10.2.6 show the distributions for base - and standards

- case

product energy efficiency in 2014 that DOE used in its NIA for clothes dryers . Also included in

the tables are the shipments- weighted energy efficiencies associated with the base case and each

considered standard level

. DOE assumed that energy efficiencies for all product classes of

clothes dryers remain constant at 2014 levels.

Table 10.2.1 Vented Dryer, Electric, Standard : Energy E ffici ency Distributions in 201 4

Energy

Efficiency

Level C EF

( lb/kWh ) Market Share

Base

Case TSL

1 2 3 4 5 6

Baseline 3.55 3%

1 3.56 19% 21%

2 3.61 54% 54% 75%

3 3.73 18% 18% 18% 93% 93%

4 3.81 6% 6% 6% 6% 6%

5 4.08 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 100%

6 5.42 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100%

SWEF 3.64 3.64 3.65 3.74 3.74 4.08 5.42

Table 10.2.2 Vented Dryer, Electric, Compact 120 V : Energy Efficiency Distributions in

2014

Energy

Efficiency

Level C EF

(lb/kWh) Market Share

Base

Case TSL

1 2 3 4 5 6

Baseline 3.43 100% 100%

1 3.48 0% 0%

2 3.61 0% 0% 100% 100% 100%

3 3.72 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

4 3.80 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

5 4.08 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100%

6 5.41 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100%

SWEF 3.43 3.43 3.61 3.61 3.61 4.08 5.4110-4 Table 10.2.3 Vented Dryer, Electric, Compact 240 V : Energy Efficiency Distributions in

2014

Energy

Efficiency

Level CEF

(lb/kWh) Market Share

Base

Case TSL

1 2 3 4 5 6

Baseline 3.12 59% 59%

1 3.16 0% 0%

2 3.27 16% 16% 75% 75% 75%

3 3.36 17% 17% 17% 17% 17%

4 3.48 4% 4% 4% 4% 4%

5 3.60 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 100%

6 4.89 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100%

SWEF 3.22 3.22 3.31 3.31 3.31 3.60 4.89

Table 10.2.4 Vented Dryer, Gas: Energy Efficiency Distributions in 2014

Energy

Efficiency

Level CEF

(lb/kWh) Market Share

Base

Case TSL

1 2 3 4 5 6

Baseline 3.14 8%

1 3.16 8% 16%

2 3.20 43% 43% 59% 59%

3 3.30 31% 31% 31% 31% 90%

4 3.41 9% 9% 9% 9% 9%

5 3.61 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 100% 100%

SWEF 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.31 3.61 3.61

Table 10.2.5 Vent

- less Dryer, Electric, Compact 240 V : Energy Efficiency Distributions in

2014

Energy

Efficiency

Level CEF

(lb/kWh) Market Share

Base

Case TSL

1 2 3 4 5 6

Baseline 2.55 100% 100% 100%

1 2.59 0% 0% 0%

2 2.69 0% 0% 100% 100% 0%

3 2.71 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

4 2.80 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100%

5 4.03 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100%

SWEF 2.55 2.55 2.69 2.69 2.55 2.80 4.0310-5 Table 10.2.6 Vent

- less Dryer, Electric, Combination Washer/Dryer: Energy Efficiency

Distributions in 2014

Energy Efficiency Level CEF

(lb/kWh) Market Share

Base Case TSL

1 2 3 4 5 6

Baseline 2.08 100% 100% 100%

1 2.35 0% 0% 0%

2 2.38 0% 0% 0%

3 2.46 0% 0% 0%

4 2.56 0% 0% 100% 100% 0% 100%

5 3.69 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100%

SWEF 2.08 2.08 2.56 2.56 2.08 2.56 3.69

10.2.2 Room Air Conditioners

Table 10.2.7 through Table 10.2.12 show the distributions for base - and standards- case

product energy efficiency in 2014 that DOE used in its NIA for room air conditioners, as well as

the shipments- weighted energy efficiency ratio (SWEER) for each considered candidate standard

level (CSL)

. DOE assumed that energy efficiencies for all room air conditioner product classes

will increase at a rate of 0.25% per year in absence of standard.

Table 10.2.7 Room Air Conditioners

, Without Reverse Cycle and With Louvers, Less than

6,000 Btu/h: Energy Efficiency Distributions in 2014

Energy

Efficiency

Level Market Shares

C EER Base

Case Trial Standard Level

1 2 3 4 5 6

Baseline 9.5 69%

1 10.1 0% 69% 69%

2 10.6 30% 30% 100% 30%

3 11.1 1% 1% 1% 1% 100% 100%

4 11.4 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

5 11.7 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100%

SWEER 9.9 10.3 10.7 10.3 11.1 11.1 11.710-6 Table 10.2.8 Room Air Conditioners

, Without Reverse Cycle and With Louvers,

8,000–13,999 Btu/h: Energy Efficiency Distributions in 2014

Energy Efficiency

Level Market Shares

CEER Base

Case Trial Standard Level

1 2 3 4 5 6

Baseline 9.7 37%

1 10.2 2%

2 10.7 58% 98% 98%

3 10.9 1% 1% 1% 99% 99%

4 11.5 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100%

5 12.0 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100%

SWEER 10.3 10.7 10.7 10.9 10.9 11.4 12.0

Table 10.2.9 Room Air Conditioners

, Without Reverse Cycle and With Louvers,

20,000-24,999 Btu/h : Energy Efficiency Distributions in 2014

Energy Efficiency

Level Market Shares

CEER Base

Case Trial Standard Level

1 2 3 4 5 6

Baseline 8.5 13% 13% 13%

1 9 2% 2% 2%

2 9.4 81% 96% 96% 81% 96% 81%

3 9.8 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2%

4 10.2 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 100%

SWEER 9.3 9.4 9.4 9.3 9.4 9.3 10.2

Table 10.2.10 Room Air Conditioners

, Without Reverse Cycle and With Louvers,

25,000 Btu/h or more: Energy Efficiency Distributions in 2014

Energy Efficiency

Level Market Shares

CEER Base

Case Trial Standard Level

1 2 3 4 5 6

Baseline 8.5 12% 12% 12%

1 9 2% 2% 15% 2%

2 9.4 85% 100% 100% 85% 85% 85%

3 9.8 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100%

SWEER 9.3 9.4 9.4 9.3 9.3 9.3 9.810-7 Table 10.2.11 Room Air Conditioners

, Without Reverse Cycle and With out Louvers

, 8,000–11,999 Btu/h: Energy Efficiency Distributions in 2014

Energy Efficiency

Level Market Shares

CEER Base

Case Trial Standard Level

1 2 3 4 5 6

Baseline 8.4 10%

1 9.3 65% 75% 75%

2 9.6 20% 20% 20% 94% 94%

3 10.0 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 98%

4 10.4 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 100%

SWEER 9.3 9.4 9.4 9.6 9.6 10.0 10.4

Table 10.2.12 Room Air Conditioners

, Without Reverse Cycle and With out Louvers

, 12,000–13,999 Btu/h: Energy Efficiency Distributions in 2014

Energy Efficiency

Level Market Shares

CEER Base

Case Trial Standard Level

1 2 3 4 5 6

Baseline 8.4 10%

1 9.3 59% 69% 69%

2 9.5 13% 13% 13% 83% 83% 83%

3 9.8 17% 17% 17% 17% 17% 17%

4 10.0 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100%

SWEER 9.3 9.4 9.4 9.6 9.6 9.6 10.0

Figure 10.2.1 illustrates the approach used by DOE for room air conditioners without

reverse cycle and w ith louvers, l ess than 6,000 Btu/h . The figure shows the CEER

- based base

case historical SWEERs, the b ase case forecasted energy efficiency trend and each standard case

forecasted energy efficiency trend for room a ir conditioners, without r everse c ycle and w ith

louvers, less than 6,000 Btu/h. As shown on the figure, the growth rates in the standard cases are

slightly lower than in the base case. Note that for the standards cases, the efficiency trend does

not increase past the max tech level.10-8 Figure 10.2.1 Room Air Conditioners

, Without Reverse Cycle and

With Louvers, Less than 6,000 Btu/h: SWEER

Forecast for the Base Case and Standard Cases

10.3 NATIONAL ENERGY SAVI NGS

DOE calculated the national energy savings associated with the difference between the

base case and the case associ ated with each potential standard for room air conditioners and

clothes dryers. DOE calculated cumulative energy savings throughout the forecast period, which

extends from 2014 through 2043.

10.3.1 Definition of National Energy Savings

The following equation shows that DOE calculated annual national energy savings

(NES) as the difference between two projections: a base case (without new standards) and a

standards case. Positive values of NES represent energy savings (that is, national ann ual energy

consumption (AEC) under a standard is less than in the base case).

STD _ BASE y AEC AEC NES

=

Cumulative energy savings are the sum of annual national energy savings throughout the

forecast period, which extends from the assumed effective date of new standards (2014) to 30

years after that date (through 2043).

DOE calculated the national annual site energy consumption by multiplying the number

or stock of each product class (by vintage) by its unit energy consumption (UEC; also by

vintage). The calculation of national annual energy consumption is represented by the following

equation.10-9 

# ∑ **× =**  V V y UEC STOCK AEC

Where:

AEC = national annual energy consumption each year in quadrillion British thermal

units (quads), summed over vintages of the product stock, STOCK V , NES = annual national energy sav ings (quads),

STOCK V

= stock of product (millions of units) of vintage V that sur vive in the year for

which DOE calculated annual energy co nsumption,

UEC V = annual energy consumption per product in kilowatt-hours (kWh),

V = year in which the product was purchased as a new unit, and

y = year in the forecast.

Electricity consu mption is converted from site energy to source energy (quads) by

applying a time -dependent conversion factor.

The stock of a product depends on annual shipments and the lifetime of the product. As

described in chapter 9, DOE projected product shipments under the base case and the standards

cases. DOE projected that shipments under the standards cases would be slightly lower than

under the base case, because DOE believes that the higher purchase cost of more efficient

products would cause some consumers to forego purchasing new products.

To avoid including savings attributable to shipments displaced because of standards,

DOE used the projected standards-case shipments and, in turn, the standards- case stock, to

calculate the annual energy consumption for the base case.

10.3.2 Inputs to National Energy Savings

The inputs for determining NES are:

**•** annual e nergy consumption per u nit ( UEC)

**•** shipments

**•** product stock ( STOCK V

)

**•** n ational annual e nergy consumption (AEC)

**•** site

- to -source conversion factor ( src_conv)

10.3.2.1 Annual Energy Consumption per Unit

DOE developed per -unit annual energy consumption as a function of prod uct energy

effici ency for each of the considered products ( chapter 7, E nergy U se Characterization , and

chapter 8, L ife -C ycle C ost and P ayback Period A nalyses ). Because per -unit annual energy

consumption is directly dependent on energy effici ency, DOE used the shipments

- weighted

energy efficiencies for the base and standards case s (presented in section 10.2), along with the

annual energy use data present ed in chapter 8, to estimate the shipment s- weighted average

annual per-unit energy consumption under the base and standards cases.10-10 Clothes Dryers

. Using the relationship between the CEF of clothes dryers and the annual

energy consumption described in chapter 8, DOE calculated the per -unit annual energy

consumption of clothes dryers. The calculation was b ased on the shipments- weighted energy

efficiencies that correspond to the base case and each standards case for each clothes dryer

product class ( Table 10.3.1 ).

Table 10.3.1 Clothes Dryers : Shipment s- Weighted Average p er

- Unit Annual Energy

Consumption

Product Class Base

Case Standard at Efficiency Level

1 2 3 4 5 6

Vented Electric

Standard CEF (lbs/kWh) 3.55 3.56 3.61 3.73 3.81 4.08 5.42

Annual Energy

Use (kWh/yr) 718 716 707 684 670 627 476

Vented Electric

Compact 120V CEF (lbs/kWh) 3.43 3.48 3.61 3.72 3.80 4.08 5.41

Annual Energy

Use (kWh/yr) 317 314 305 295 289 268 198

Vented Electric

Compact 240V CEF (lbs/kWh) 3.12 3.16 3.27 3.36 3.48 3.60 4.89

Annual Energy

Use (kWh/yr) 353 349 340 331 319 308 223

Vented Gas CEF (lbs/kWh) 3.14 3.16 3.20 3.30 3.41 3.61

Annual Gas

Use

(MMBtu/yr) 2.53 2.53 2.53 2.45 2.37 2.25

Annual Elec.

Use (kWh/yr) 42 39 30 30 30 25

Vent

- less

Electric

Compact 240V CEF (lbs/kWh) 2.55 2.59 2.69 2.71 2.80 4.03

Annual Energy

Use (kWh/yr) 372 366 354 351 337 210

Vent

- less

Electric

Combination

Washer/Dryer CEF (lbs/kWh) 2.08 2.35 2.38 2.46 2.56 3.69

Annual Energy

Use (kWh/yr) 463 399 394 383 365 226

As noted in section 10.2, DOE assumed that forecasted energy efficiencies in the base

and standards cases remain constant at 2014 levels. B ecause per -unit annual energy consumption

is a function of energy effici ency, DOE held the values shown in Table 10.3.1 constant

throughout the forecast period.

Room Air Conditioners

. Using the relationship between EER and annual energy

consumption described in chapter 8, DOE calculated the per-unit annual energy consumption

based on the shipments- weighted average energy efficiencies that correspond to the base case

and each considered standard case for each room air conditioner product class

. Table 10.3.2 and

Table 10.3.3 show the values used for shipments to the residential and commercial sector,

respectively.10-11 Table 10.3.2 Room Air Conditioners: Shipments

- Weighted Average per

- Unit Annual

Energy Consumption in 2014, Residential Sector

Product Class Base

Case Trial Standard Level

1 2 3 4 5 6

Less than 6,000 Btu/h,

with Louvers CEER 9.5 10.1 10.6 10.1 11.1 11.1 11.7

Annual

Energy

Use

(kWh /yr ) 389 375 365 375 351 351 337

8,000

- 13,999 Btu/h,

with Louvers CEER 9.7 10.6 10.6 11.1 11.1 11.4 11.7

Annual

Energy

Use

(kWh /yr ) 604 584 584 576 576 550 532

20,000

- 24,999 Btu/h,

with Louvers CEER 8.5 9.4 9.4 8.5 9.4 8.5 10.2

Annual

Energy

Use

(kWh /yr ) 466 459 459 466 459 466 432

25,000 Btu/h or more,

with Louvers CEER 8.5 9.4 9.4 8.5 9.0 8.5 9.8

Annual

Energy

Use

(kWh /yr ) 543 536 536 543 539 543 518

8,000

- 10,999 Btu/h,

without Louvers CEER 8.4 9.3 9.3 9.6 9.6 10.0 10.4

Annual

Energy

Use

(kWh /yr ) 481 477 477 467 467 450 438

11,000

- 13,999 Btu/h,

without Louvers CEER 8.4 9.3 9.3 9.5 9.5 9.5 10.0

Annual

Energy

Use

(kWh /yr ) 717 711 711 702 702 702 67310-12 Table 10.3.3 Room Air Conditioners: Shipments

- Weighted Average per

- Unit Annual

Energy Consumption in 2014, Commercial Sector

Product

Class Base

Case Trial Standard Level

1 2 3 4 5 6

Less than

6,000 Btu/h,

with

Louvers CEER 9.5 10.1 10.6 10.1 11.1 11.1 11.7

Annual

Energy

Use

(kWh /yr ) 583 563 548 563 527 527 506

8,000

- 13,999

Btu/h, with

Louvers CEER 9.7 10.6 10.6 11.1 11.1 11.4 11.7

Annual

Energy

Use

(kWh /yr ) 1034 1001 1001 986 986 943 913

20,000

- 24,999

Btu/h, with

Louvers CEER 8.5 9.4 9.4 8.5 9.4 8.5 10.2

Annual

Energy

Use

(kWh /yr ) 2919 2883 2883 2919 2883 2919 2709

25,000

Btu/h or

more, with

Louvers CEER 8.5 9.4 9.4 8.5 9.0 8.5 9.8

Annual

Energy

Use

(kWh /yr ) 2924 2889 2889 2924 2905 2924 2790

8,000

- 10,999

Btu/h,

without

Louvers CEER 8.4 9.3 9.3 9.6 9.6 10.0 10.4

Annual

Energy

Use

(kWh /yr ) 1151 1141 1141 1118 1118 1084 1053

11,000

- 13,999

Btu/h,

without

Louvers CEER 8.4 9.3 9.3 9.5 9.5 9.5 10.0

Annual

Energy

Use

(kWh /yr ) 1379 1368 1368 1351 1351 1351 1298

As noted in section 10.2, DOE applied a growth rate to the SWEER to forecast energy

efficiencies in the base and standards cases. Because per -unit annual energy consumption is a

function of energy efficiency, values shown in Table 10.3.2 and Table 10.3.3 scale with the

average SWEER throughout the forecast period.

Figure 10.3.1 shows the evolution of the UEC for room air conditioners l ess than 6,000

Btu/h, with Louvers (residential sector) in the base case, TSL4 and TSL6.10-13 Figure 10.3.1 Room Air Conditioners

, Without Reverse Cyc le and

With Louvers, Less than 6,000 Btu/h: Unit Energy

Consumption Forecast for the Base Case and

Selected Standard Cases

As shown on the figure, because the efficiency trend in the standard cases does not

increase past the max tech level , the unit energy consumption stays constant and equal to the

max tech level in TSL6

.

When calculating energy consumption at each considered efficiency level for room air

conditioner, DOE applied a rebound effect of 15 percent. When the rebound effect is

incorporated, c alculated energy savings are lower than if no rebound effect were considered

10.3.2.2 Shipments and Equipment Stock

The methodology for conducting and generating shipments forecasts for each considered

product is described in detail in chapter 9. The product stock in a given year is the number of

products shipped from earlier years that survive in the given year. The NIA models kee p track of

the number of units shipped each year. DOE assumes that the products have an increasing

probabilit y of retiring as they age. The survival function represents t he probability of survival as

a function of years since purchase. T he sections in chapter 9 that concern with specific product s

present further details on the survival functions that DOE used in its analyse s.

10.3.2.3 National Annual Energy Consumption

The national annual energy consumption (AEC) is the product of the annual energy

consumption per unit and the number of units of each vintage. This method of calculation

accounts for differences in unit energy consumption from year to year. In determining national 250.0 270.0 290.0 310.0 330.0 350.0 370.0 390.0 410.0

2014 2019 2024 2029 2034 2039 2044UEC (kWh/yr)

Base Case

TSL4

TSL610-14 annual energy consumption, DOE first calculated annual energy consumption at the site, then

applied a conversion factor, described below, to calculate primary energy consumption.

10.3.2.4 Site

- to

- Source Energy Conversion Factors

In determining annual NES , DOE initially considered the annual energy consumption at a

residence (for electricity, the energy in kWh consumed by the household). DOE then calculated

primary (source) energy sa vings from site energy consumption by applying a conversion factor

to account for losses associated with the generation, transmission, and distribution of electricity

and natural gas. The site

- to -source conversion factor is a multiplicative factor used for

converting site energy consumption into primary or source energy consumption, expressed in

quadrillion Btu (quads).

DOE used annual site- to -source conversion factors based on the version of the national

energy modeling system (NEMS) that corresponds to the DOE Energy Information

Administration’s (EIA’s) Annual Energy Outlook 2010 ( AEO20 10 ). 1 The factors are marginal

values, which represent the response of the system to an incremental decrease in consumption.

For electricity, the conversion factors change over time in response to projected changes in

generation sources ( i.e ., the types of power plant projected to provide electricity).

Figure 10.3.2 shows the site- to

- source conversion factors for electricity between 2005

and 2035 for clothes dryers. NEMS outputs stop in 2035; DOE assumed that conversion factors

remain constant at 2035 values throughout the rest of the forecast.10-15 Figure 10.3.2 Site

- to

- Source Conversion Factors for Electricity

– Clothes Dryers

Figure 10.3.3 shows the site- to

- source conversion factors for electricity between 2005

and 2035 for room air conditioners, which were generated by NEMS based on the load shape for

room air conditioners. NEMS outputs stop in 2030 ; DOE assumed that conversion factors remain

constant at 2030 values throughout the rest of the forecast. 

### 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035Btu/kWh

Residential10-16 Figure 10.3.3 Site

- to

- Source Conversion Factors for Electricity

– Room Air Conditioners

10.4 NET PRESENT VALUE

DOE calculated the net present value (NPV) of the increased product cost and reduced

operating cost associated with the difference between the base case and each potential standards

case for the considered products.

10.4.1 Definition of N et P resent Value

The NPV is the value in the present of a combination of costs and savings. The NPV is

described by the equation:



## ( ) 

## ∑ **×−=**

y y DF yCyS NPV )()()(

W here:

S (y) = value of operating cost savings (including energy, repair, and maintenance

costs) in year y

, 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030Btu/kWh

Residential

Commercial10-17 C (y) = value of increased total installed costs (including products and installation) , and

DF(y)= d iscount factor in each year

.

DOE calculated the total annual savings in operating costs by multiplying the number or

stock of a given product (by vintage) by its per-uni t savings on operating cost s (also by vintage).

DOE calculated the total annual increases in installed cost s by multiplying the number or stock

of the given product (by vintage) by its per- unit total increase in installed cost s (also by vintage).

The calculation of the annual savings in operating costs and total annual increases in installed

cost is represented by the following equations.



## ∑ )( )( )( y AffStock y UOCS y OCS **× =** 



## ∑ )()( )( y xS yUTIC yTIC

**=**

Where :

OCS = total annual savings in operating cost s each year summed over vintages of

the product stock considered, AffStock(y)

, TIC = total annual increase in installed cost each year summed over vintages of

the product stock considered, AffStock(y)

, S(y) = stock of product (millions of units) of vintage V that survive in the year for

which DOE calculated annual energy consumption,

UOCS (y) = annual savings in operating cost per unit in year y

, UTIC(y) = annual increase in total installed cost per unit in year y

, and

y = year i n forecast

.

DOE calculated a discount factor from the discount rate and the number of years between

the present ( i.e

., the year to which the sum is being discounted) and the year in which the costs

and savings occur. The NPV is the sum over time of the discounted net savi ngs.

10.4.2 Inputs to Calculation of N et Present Value

The inputs to calculation s of NPV are:

**•** t otal i nstalled cost per unit,

**•** annual savings in o perating c ost per unit,

**•** t otal annual increases in i nstalled cost,

**•** t otal annual o perating c osts

,

**•** discount f actor

,

**•** p resent v alue of costs , and

**•** present value of s avings

.10-18 The increase in total annual installed cost is equal to the annual change in the per-unit

total installed cost (difference between base case and standards case s ) multiplied by the

shipments forecasted for the standards case. As when calculati ng the NES, DOE did not use base

case shipments to calculate total annual installed costs for all of the products.

The total annual savings in operating cost s are equal to the change in annual operating

costs (difference between base case and standards case) per unit multiplied by the shipments

forecasted in the standards case. The annual operating cost includes energy, repair, and

maintenance costs

, as described in chapter 8.

10.4.2.1 Total Insta lled Cost per Unit

T he per

- unit total installed cost of each considered product is described in chapter 8 as a

function of product energy effici ency. Because the per

- unit total annual installed cost is directly

dependent on energy effici ency, DOE used the shipments- weighted energy efficiencies of the

base and standards case s described in section 10.2, in combination with the total installed costs

developed in chapter 8, to estimate the shipments- weighted average annual per

- unit total

installed cost under the base and standards cases.

In the preliminary analysis, DOE followed its past practice and assumed that the

manufacturer costs and retail prices of products meeting various efficiency levels remain fixed,

in real terms, after 2009 (the year for which the engineering analysis estimated costs) and

throughout the period of the analysis. As discussed in chapter 8, examination of historical price

data for certain appliances and equipment that have been subject to energy conservation

standards indicates that the assumption of constant real prices and costs may, in many cases,

over- estimate long -term appliance and equipment price trends.

For the direct final rule, DOE applied the learning rate described in chapter 8 to forecast

the prices of clothes dryers and room air conditioners sold in each year in the forecast period

(2014-2043). The price in each year is a function of the cumulative production of clothes dryers

or room air conditioners forecast in each year. For each of the two products, DOE applied th e

same values to forecast prices for each product class at each considered efficiency level.

For household laundry equipment , the estimated learning rate (defined as the fractional

reduction in price expected from each doubling of cumulative production) is 41.6 percent. With

cumulative clothes dryer shipments through 2043 projected to reach 1, 197 million (compared

with 537 million in 2010), the price is projected to drop to 0.53 times the 2010 value.

For room air conditioners , the estimated learning is 38.9 percent. With cumulative

shipments through 2043 projected to reach 503 million (compared with 225 million in 2010), the

price is projected to drop to 0.57 times the 2010 value.

Clothes Dryers

. Total installed cost for clothes dryers includes costs fo r both the product

and the installation. DOE based average consumer product costs on average manufacturer costs

multiplied by average overall markup values. Using the relationship between the efficiency of10-19 clothes dryers and total installed cos t presented in chapter 8

, DOE calculated the per

- unit total

installed cost for clothes dryers , based on the shipments

- weighted energy efficiencies that

correspond to the base case and each standards case. Table 10.4.1 shows the costs in 2014.

Table 10.4.1 Clothes Dryers : Shipments

- Weighted Average Total Installed Costs in 2014

Product Class Base

Case Standard at Efficiency Level

1 2 3 4 5 6

Vented Electric

Standard CEF

(lb/kWh) 3.55 3.56 3.61 3.73 3.81 4.08 5.42

Total Installed

Cost ( 2009$ ) 455 455 456 467 528 583 879

Vented Electric

Compact 120V CEF

(lb/kWh) 3.43 3.48 3.61 3.72 3.80 4.08 5.41

Total Installed

Cost ( 2009$ ) 470 471 471 501 560 627 875

Vented Electric

Compact 240V CEF

(lb/kWh) 3.12 3.16 3.27 3.36 3.48 3.60 4.89

Total Installed

Cost ( 2009$ ) 470 471 471 501 560 627 875

Vented Gas CEF

(lb/kWh) 3.14 3.16 3.20 3.30 3.41 3.61

Total Installed

Cost ( 2009$ ) 554 555 555 567 658 712

Vent

- less

Electric

Compact 240V CEF

(lb/kWh) 2.55 2.59 2.69 2.71 2.8 2.55

Total Installed

Cost ( 2009$ ) 1093 1094 1094 1131 1176 1462

Vent

- less

Electric

Combination

Washer/Dryer CEF

(lb/kWh) 2.08 2.35 2.38 2.46 2.56 2.08

Total Installed

Cost ( 2009$ ) 1533 1535 1536 1537 1579 1981

Figure 10.4.1 shows the forecast trend in installed cost for electric standard clothes

dryers . The trend is similar for other product classes.10-20 Figure 10.4.1 Electric Standard Clothes Dryers : Installed Cost

Forecast for the Base Case and Selected Standard

Cases

Room Air Conditioners

. DOE based average room air conditioner consumer product

costs on average manufacturer costs plus average overall markup values. Using the relationship

between room air conditioner CEER and total installed cost presented in chapter 8

, DOE derived

the per -unit total installed cost based on the shipments- weighted energy efficiencies that

correspond to the base case and each standards case for the representative room air conditioner

product classes

. Table 10.4.2 shows the costs in 2014. $200 $300 $400 $500 $600 $700 $800 $900 $1,000

2014 2019 2024 2029 2034 2039Installed Price (2009$)

Base Case

TSL 4

TSL 610-21 Table 10.4.2 Room Air Conditioners : Shipment s-Weighted Average Total Installed Cost

in 2014

Product Class Base

Case Trial Standard Level

1 2 3 4 5 6

Less than 6,000

Btu/h, with Louvers CEER 9.5 10.1 10.6 10.1 11.1 11.1 11.7

Total

Installed

Cost

(2009$) $359 $366 $375 $366 $393 $393 $473

8,000

- 13,999 Btu/h,

with Louvers CEER 9.7 10.6 10.6 11.1 11.1 11.4 11.7

Total

Installed

Cost

(2009$) $488 $494 $494 $498 $498 $526 $605

20,000

- 24,999

Btu/h, with Louvers CEER 8.5 9.4 9.4 8.5 9.4 8.5 10.2

Total

Installed

Cost

(2009$) $893 $897 $897 $893 $897 $893 $1,163

25,000 Btu/h or

more, with Louvers CEER 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5

Total

Installed

Cost

(2009$) $1,051 $1,062 $1,062 $1,051 $1,056 $1,051 $1,317

8,000

- 10,999 Btu/h,

without Louvers CEER 8.4 9.3 9.3 9.6 9.6 10.0 10.4

Total

Installed

Cost

(2009$) $498 $499 $499 $501 $501 $515 $615

11,000

- 13,999

Btu/h, without

Louvers CEER 8.4 9.3 9.3 9.5 9.5 9.5 10.0

Total

Installed

Cost

(2009$) $594 $595 $595 $599 $599 $599 $708

Figure 10.4.1 shows the forecast trend in installed cost for units without reverse cycle and

with louvers, less than 6,000 Btu/h. The trend is similar for other product classes.10-22 Figure 10.4.2 Room Air Conditioners, Wi thout Reverse Cycle and

With Louvers, Less than 6,000 Btu/h: Installed Cost

Forecast for the Base Case and Selected Standard

Cases

10.4.2.2 Annual Operating Cost Savings per Unit

P er -unit annual operating cost represents the annual cost for energy. DOE determined the

savings in per-unit annual energy cost for each product by multiplying the savings in per-unit

annual energy consumption by the appropriate energy price.

E stimates of per -unit annual energy consumption for the base case and each standards

case were presented in section 10.3.2.1

. DOE forecasted energy prices based on EIA’s AEO20 10

. The energy prices and price trends are described in chapter 8.

10.4.2.3 Total Increases in Annual Installed Cost

The increase in total annual installed cost for any given standards case is the product of

the total installed cost increase per unit d ue to the standard and the number of units of each

vintage. This approach accounts for differences in total installed cost from year to year. DOE

used t he following equation (also presented in section 10.4.1 ) to determine the increase in total

annual installed cost for a given standards case.



## ∑ )()( )( ySyUTIC yTIC **× =** 

10.4.2.4 Total Savings in Annual Operating Cost

The total savings in annual operating cost for any given standards case is the product of

the annual operating cost savings per unit due to the standard and the number of units of each $250 $300 $350 $400 $450 $500

2014 2019 2024 2029 2034 2039 2044Installed Price (2009$) Base Case

TSL4

TSL610-23 vintage. This approach accounts for differences in savings in annual operating cost from year to

year. DOE used the following eq uation (also presented in section 10.4.1) to determin e the total

savings in annual operating cost for a given standards case.



## ∑ )( )( )( y AffStock y UOCS y OCS **× =** 

As discussed in chapter 8, the take-back in energy consumption associated with the

rebound effect prov ides increased value to consumers ( e.g ., a more comfortable indo or

environment ). The net impact is the sum of the change in the cost of owning the product ( that is,

national consumer expenditures for total installed and operating cost s ) and the increased value of

the enhanced service from the product. DOE believes that, if the increased national value (to

consumers) produced by the rebound effect could be monetized, it would be similar to the

monetary value of the foregone energy saving s. For this analysis, DOE estimated that this

increased value to consumers is equivalent to the monetary value of the energy savings that

would have occurred without the rebound effect. The national economic impacts on consumers

with or without the rebound effect, as measured by the NPV analysis, therefore are the same.

10.4.2.5 Discount Factors

DOE multiplies monetary values in future years by a discount factor to determine present

values. The discount factor ( DF ) is described by the equation:

)(

_ )1( 1

p

yy r DF

**+ =** 

Where :

r = discount rate,

y = year of the monetary value, and

y P = year in which the present value is being determined.

DOE used both a 3- percent and a 7

- percent real discount rate when estimat ing national

impacts. T hese discount rates were applied in accordance with the Office of Management and

Budget (OMB)’s guidance to Federal agencies on developing regulatory analys e s (OMB Circular

A-4, September 17, 2003, and section E., “Identifying and Measuring Benefits and Costs,”

therein ).

D OE defines the present year as 2011 , which is when it expects the final rule for this

rulemaking to be published.

10.4.2.6 Present Value of Costs

The present value of increased installed costs is the annual increase in installed cost for

each year ( i.e ., the difference between the standards case and base case) , discounted to the10-24 present and summed over the period for which DOE is considering the installed products (from

the effective date of energy conservation standards through 30 years later ).

The increase in total installed cost refers to both product and installation cost s associated

with the higher energy efficiency of products purchased in the standards case compared to the

base case. DOE calculated annual increases in installed cost as the difference in total cost of new

products installed each year, multiplied by the shipments in the standards case.

10.4.2.7 Present Value of Savings

The present value of savings in operating cost is the annual savings in operating cost ( i. e.

, the difference between the base case and standards case) , discounted to the present and summed

over the period that begins with the effective date of standards and ends when the last installed

unit is retired from service.

Savings represent decreases in operating cost (including costs for energy , repair, and

maintenance) associated with the higher energy efficiency of products purchased in a standards

case compared to the base case. Total annual savings in operating cost are the savings per u nit

multiplied by the number of units of each vintage that survive in a particular year. Because

equipment consumes energy throughout its lifetime, the energy consumption for units installed in

the past year includes energy consumed until the unit is retir ed from service.

10.5 NES AND NPV RESULTS

The NIA model provides estimates of the NES and NPV that would result from standards

at various efficiency levels. The inputs to the NIA model were discussed in sections 10.3.2 (NES

Inputs) and 10.4.2 (NPV Inputs). DOE generated the NES and NPV results using a Microsoft

Excel spreadsheet, which is accessible on the Internet

( www.eere.energy.gov/buildings/appliance_standards/ ). Details and instructions for using the

spreadsheet are provided in appendix 9-A, U ser Instructions f or Shipments and N ational E nergy

Savings S preadsheet M odel

, in the section titled, “ NES and NPV Input S ummary .”

Table 10.5.1 summarizes inputs to the NIA model.10-25 Table 10.5.1 Inputs to National E nergy Savings and N et P resent Value

Input Data Description

Shipments Annual shipments from shipments model ( s ee chapter 9)

.

Effective Date of Standard 201 4.

Energy Efficienc y in Base Case Shipment s

- weighted unit energy consumption ( UEC )

determined for each year.

Energy Efficienc y in Standards Case s For clothes dryers, “Roll

- up” scenario assumed for determining

shipments- weighted UEC for each standards case For room air

conditioners, “ Roll -up + shift ” scenario assumed for

determining shipments- weighted UEC for each standards case

( s ee section 10.2.)

. Annual Energy Consumption per Unit Annual weighted

- average values are a function of shipment s

weighted UEC

. Total Installed Cost per Unit Annual weighted

- average values are a function of efficiency

level

. Energy Cost per Unit Annual weighted

- average values are a func tion of the annual

UEC and energy prices ( s ee c hapter 8 for energy prices)

. Repair Cost and Maintenance Cost per

Unit Annual values are a function of efficiency level ( s ee c hapter 8)

.

Escalation of Energy Prices Based on EIA AEO20 10 forecasts (to 203 5 ) and on

extrapolation after 2035 (s ee chapter 8).

Energy Site

- to

- Source Conversion

Factor Conversion , which differs yearly

, is generated by DOE/EIA’s

NEMS program (a time

- series conversion factor that includes

electric generation, transmission, and distr ibution losses).

Discount Rate 3 percent and 7 percent real.

Present Year 201 1

.

10.5.2 National Energy Savings Results by Efficiency Level

The following section provides results of calculating NES for standards at each of the

efficiency levels analyzed for the considered products. NES results, which are cumulative to

2044, are shown as primary energy savings. Because DOE based the inputs to the NIA model on

weighted -average values, results are discrete point values, rather than a distribution of values as

produced by the LCC and PBP analyses. DOE reports both undiscounted and discounted values

of energy savings. Discounted energy savings represent a policy perspective where energy

savings farther in the future are less significant than energy savings closer to the present.

10.5.2.1 Clothes Dryers

Table 10.5.2 through Table 10.5.4 show the results of calculating NES for the CSLs

analyzed for clothes dryers.10-26 Table 10.5.2 Clothes Dryers : Cumulative National Energy Savings in Quads

Pr oduct Class Candidate Standard Level

1 2 3 4 5 6

Vented Electric Standard 0.001 0.038 0.347 0.564 1.268 2.923

Vented Electric Compact 120 V 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.001 0.002 0.003

Vented Electric Compact 24 0 V 0.000 0.001 0.003 0.004 0.006 0.016

Vented Gas 0.002 0.009 0.038 0.079 0.164

Vent

- less Electric Compact 240 V 0.001 0.002 0.002 0.004 0.016

Vent

- less Electric Combination

Washer/Dryer 0.007 0.008 0.009 0.011 0.023

Table 10.5.3 Clothes Dryers : Cumulative National Energy Savings in Quads, Discounted

at 3 Percent

Product Class Candidate Standard Level

1 2 3 4 5 6

Vented Electric Standard 0.000 0.021 0.190 0.309 0.696 1.605

Vented Electric Compact 120V 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.001 0.002

Vented Electric Compact 240V 0.000 0.001 0.001 0.002 0.003 0.009

Vented Gas 0.001 0.005 0.020 0.043 0.089

Vent

- less Electric Compact 240V 0.000 0.001 0.001 0.002 0.009

Vent

- less Electric Combination

Washer/Dryer 0.004 0.004 0.005 0.006 0.013

Table 10.5.4 Clothes Dryers : Cumulative National Energy Savings in Quads, Discounted

at 7 Percent

Product Class Candidate Standard Level

1 2 3 4 5 6

Vented Electric Standard 0.000 0.011 0.095 0.155 0.349 0.805

Vented Electric Compact 120V 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.001

Vented Electric Compact 240V 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.001 0.002 0.004

Vented Gas 0.000 0.003 0.010 0.021 0.043

Vent

- less Electric Compact 240V 0.000 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.004

Vent

- less Electric Combination

Washer/Dryer 0.002 0.002 0.002 0.003 0.006

10.5.2.2

10.5.2.3 Room Air Conditioners

Table 10.5.5 through Table 10.5.7 show the NES results for the CSLs analyzed for each

room air conditioner prod uct class group. See section 10.1 for description of the product classes

contained in each group.10-27 Table 10.5.5 Room Air Conditioners : Cumulative N ational Energy Savings in Quads

Groups Candidate Standard Level

1 2 3 4 5

Group 1

- based on Less than 6,000 Btu/h, with

Louvers 0.05 0.08 0.13 0.15 0.17

Group 2

- based on 8,000

- 13,999 Btu/h, with

Louvers 0.05 0.14 0.23 0.26 0.29

Group 3

- based on 20,000

- 24,999 Btu/h, with

Louvers 0.00 0.11 0.18 0.21

Group 4

- based on 25,000 Btu/h or more, with

Louvers 0.00 0.08 0.13

Group 5

- based on 8,000

- 10,999 Btu/h,

without Louvers 0.00 0.09 0.15 0.17

Group 6

- based on 11,000

- 13,999 Btu/h,

without Louvers 0.00 0.09 0.15 0.17

Table 10.5.6 Room Air Conditioners : Cumulative N ational Energy Savings in Quads,

Discounted at 3 Percent

Groups Candidate Standard Level

1 2 3 4 5

Group 1

- based on Less than 6,000 Btu/h, with

Louvers 0.028 0.051 0.080 0.093 0.103

Group 2

- based on 8,000

- 13,999 Btu/h, with

Louvers 0.032 0.086 0.137 0.159 0.176

Group 3

- based on 20,000

- 24,999 Btu/h, with

Louvers 0.001 0.069 0.110 0.128

Group 4

- based on 25,000 Btu/h or more, with

Louvers 0.000 0.051 0.080

Group 5

- based on 8,000

- 10,999 Btu/h,

without Louvers 0.003 0.057 0.090 0.105

Group 6

- based on 11,000

- 13,999 Btu/h,

without Louvers 0.001 0.057 0.090 0.10510-28 Table 10.5.7 Room Air Conditioners : Cumulative N ational Energy Savings in Quads,

Discounted at 7 Percent

Groups Candidate Standard Level

1 2 3 4 5

Group 1 - based on Less than 6,000 Btu/h, with

Louvers 0.016 0.029 0.045 0.053 0.058

Group 2 - based on 8,000-13,999 Btu/h, with

Louvers 0.018 0.049 0.077 0.090 0.099

Group 3 - based on 20,000-24,999 Btu/h, with

Louvers 0.000 0.039 0.062 0.072

Group 4 - based on 25,000 Btu/h or more, with

Louvers 0.000 0.029 0.045

Group 5 - based on 8,000-10,999 Btu/h,

without Louvers 0.002 0.032 0.051 0.059

Group 6 - based on 11,000-13,999 Btu/h,

without Louvers 0.001 0.032 0.051 0.059

10.5.3 Annual Costs and Savings

Figure 10.5.1 illustrate s the basic inputs to calculations of the NPV for the example of the

non-discounted annual increases in installed cost and annual savings in operating cost for room

air conditioner product class 3 under CSL 1. The figure also shows net savings, which is the

difference between the savings and costs for each year. The annual product cost is the sum of the

increase in the total installed cost for products purchased each year during the forecast period.

The annual savings in operating cost is the savings for products operating in each year. The NPV

is the difference between the cumulative annual discounted savings and the cumulative annual

discounted costs. F igures similar to the one presented below could be created from analysis data

for each of the considered products’ standard cases.10-29 Figure 10.5.2 Non

- Discounted Changes in Annual Installed Cost

and Operating Cost for Room Air Conditioner

Product Class 3 at CSL 1

10.5.4 Consumer Net Present Value R esults by Efficiency Level

This section provides results of calculating net present value (NPV) of consumer benefit

for standards at each of the considered efficiency levels for the considered refrigeration products.

Results, which are cumulative, are shown as the discounted value of the net savings in dollar

terms. DOE based the inputs to the NIA model on weighted

- average values, yielding results that

are discrete point values, rather than a distribution of values as in the life- cycle cost and payback

period analysis.

The present value of increased total installed cos t is the total annual increase in installed

cost (the difference between the standards case and base case), discounted to the present an d

summed throughout the period for which DOE evaluate d the impact of standards.

Savings are decreases in operating cost associated with the higher energy efficiency of

products purchased in the standards case compared to the base case. Total savings in operating

cost are the savings per unit multiplied by the number of units of each v intage ( i.e., year of

manufacture) that survive in a particular year. T he operating cost includes expenditures until the

last unit purchased during the forecast period is retired from service.

. - $0.06 - $0.04 - $0.02 $0.00 $0.02 $0.04 $0.06 $0.08

2014 2024 2034 2044Billions of 2009 Dollars

Commercial Operating Cost Savings

Commercial Equipment Cost

Residential Operating Cost Saving

Residential Equipment Cost

Net Savings10-30 10.5.4.1 Clothes Dryers

Table 10.5.8 and Table 10.5.9 show the consumer NPV results for the CSLs analyzed for

each clothes dryer product class. A negative NPV indicates that the costs of a standard at a given

efficiency level exceed the savings.

Table 10.5.8 Clothes Dryers: Cumulative Consumer Net Present Value, Discounted at

3 Percent

Product Class Candidate Standard Level

1 2 3 4 5 6

Billion 200 9 $

Vented Electric Standard 0.01 0.40 2.78

- 0.44 2.13 0.56

Vented Electric Compact 120 V 0.00 0.01 0.00

- 0.01

- 0.01

- 0.03

Vented Electric Compact 240 V 0.00 0.01 0.00

- 0.03

- 0.07

- 0.12

Vented Gas 0.01 0.09 0.21

- 1.52

- 1.91

Vent

- less Electric Compact 240 V 0.01 0.02 0.00

- 0.01

- 0.04

Vent

- less Electric Combination Washer/Dryer 0.07 0.08 0.09 0.09 0.00

Table 10.5.9 Clothes Dryers: Cumulative Consumer Net Present Value, Discounted at 7

Percent

Product Class Candidate Standard Level

1 2 3 4 5 6

Billion 200 9 $

Vented Electric Standard 0.00 0.17 1.02

- 1.30

- 1.08

- 5.02

Vented Electric Compact 120V 0.00 0.00 0.00

- 0.01

- 0.01

- 0.02

Vented Electric Compact 240V 0.00 0.01 0.00

- 0.02

- 0.05

- 0.10

Vented Gas 0.01 0.04 0.05

- 1.07

- 1.47

Vent

- less Electric Compact 240V 0.00 0.01 0.00

- 0.01

- 0.05

Vent

- less Electric Combination Washer/Dryer 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.03

- 0.04

10.5.4.2 Room Air Conditioners

Table 10.5.10 through Table 10.5.11 show the results of calculating the NPV for the

CSLs analyzed for each room air conditioner product class group. See section 10.1 for

description of the product classes contained in each group. A negative NPV indicates that the

costs of a standard at a given efficiency level exceed the savings.10-31 Table 10.5.10 Room Air Conditioners: Cumulative Consumer Net Present Value,

Discounted at 3 Percent

Groups Candidate Standard Level

1 2 3 4 5

Billion 2009$

Group 1

- based on Less than 6,000 Btu/h, with Louvers 0.28 0.36 0.25

- 0.14

- 1.84

Group 2

- based on 8,000

- 13,999 Btu/h, with Louvers 0.43 0.62 0.42

- 0.25

- 3.14

Group 3

- based on 20,000

- 24,999 Btu/h, with Louvers 0.00 0.50 0.34

- 0.20

Group 4

- based on 25,000 Btu/h or more, with Louvers 0.00 0.36 0.25

Group 5

- based on 8,000

- 10,999 Btu/h, without Louvers 0.04 0.41 0.28

- 0.16

Group 6

- based on 11,000

- 13,999 Btu/h, without Louvers 0.01 0.41 0.28

- 0.16

Table 10.5.11 Room Air Conditioners: Cumulative Consumer Net Present Value,

Discounted at 7 Percent

Groups Candidate Standard Level

1 2 3 4 5

Billion 2009$

Group 1

- based on Less than 6,000 Btu/h, with Louvers 0.12 0.12

- 0.02

- 0.29

- 1.39

Group 2

- based on 8,000

- 13,999 Btu/h, with Louvers 0.21 0.21

- 0.03

- 0.49

- 2.37

Group 3

- based on 20,000

- 24,999 Btu/h, with Louvers 0.00 0.16

- 0.03

- 0.39

Group 4

- based on 25,000 Btu/h or more, with Louvers 0.00 0.12

- 0.02

Group 5

- based on 8,000

- 10,999 Btu/h, without Louvers 0.02 0.13

- 0.02

- 0.32

Group 6

- based on 11,000

- 13,999 Btu/h, without Louvers 0.01 0.14

- 0.02

- 0.32

10.6 NES AND NPV RESULTS BY TRIAL STANDARD LE VEL

10.6.1 Trial Standard Levels

In considering amended standards for the direct final rule , DOE created tr ia l standard

levels (TSLs) that combine specific efficiency levels across product classes. DOE analyzed the

benefits and burdens of a number of TSLs for the products considered in this rulemaking. A

description of each TSL DOE analyzed is provided below. DOE attempted to limit the number of10-32 TSLs considered by excluding efficiency levels that do not exhibit significantly different

economic and/or engineering characteristics from the efficiency levels already selected as a TSL.

Table 10.6.1 shows the TSLs DOE analyzed for clothes dryers. TSL 1 consists of the

efficiency levels with the largest market share with a positive NPV (at a 3% discount rate). TSL

2 consists of the efficiency levels with the highest NPV (at a 3% discount rate). TSL 3 consists

of the efficiency levels with the highest energy savings and a positive NPV (at a 3% discount

rate). TSL 2 consists of the efficiency levels that reflect 5% efficiency increase above the

baseline. TSL 5 consists of non heat pump design efficiency levels with the highest energy

savings. TSL 6 consists of the max- tech efficiency levels.

Table 10.6.1 Trial Standard Levels for Clothes Dryers

Product Class TSL 1 TSL 2 TSL 3 TSL 4 TSL 5 TSL 6

CEF

Vented Electric Standard 3.56 3.61 3.73 3.73 4.08 5.42

Vented Electric Compact 120V 3.43 3.61 3.61 3.61 4.08 5.41

Vented Electric Compact 240V 3.12 3.27 3.27 3.27 3.60 4.89

Vented Gas 3.16 3.20 3.20 3.30 3.61 3.61

Vent

- less Electric Compact 240V 2.55 2.69 2.69 2.55 2.80 4.03

Vent

- less Electric Combination

Washer/Dryer 2.08 2.56 2.56 2.08 2.56 3.69

Table 10.6.2 shows the TSLs DOE analyzed for room air conditioners. TSL 1 consists of

the efficiency levels with the largest market share with a positive NPV (at a 3% discount rate).

TSL 2 consists of the ENERGY STAR levels for each product class. TSL 3 consists of the

efficiency levels with the highest NPV (at a 3% discount rate). TSL 4 consists of the efficiency

levels included in the Consensus Agreement presented to DOE by several interested parties. TS L

5 consists of the efficiency levels with the highest energy savings and a positive NPV (at a 7%

discount rate). TSL 6 consists of the max- tech efficiency levels.

Table 10.6.2 Trial Standard Levels for Room Air Conditioners

Product Class TSL 1 TSL 2 TSL 3 TSL 4 TSL 5 TSL 6

CEER

Group 1

– includes PC 1 10.10 10.60 10.10 11.10 11.10 11.67

Group 2

– includes PC 2, 3, 4, 11 10.70 10.70 10.90 10.90 11.50 11.96

Group 3

– includes PC 5a, 9, 13 9.40 9.40 8.47 9.40 8.47 10.15

Group 4

– includes PC 5b, 10 9.40 9.40 8.48 9.00 8.48 9.80

Group 5

– includes PC 6, 7, 8a, 12 9.30 9.30 9.60 9.60 10.00 10.35

Group 6

– includes PC 8b, 14, 15,

16 9.30 9.30 9.50 9.50 9.50 10.0210-33 10.6.2 National Energy Savings Results by Trial Standard Level

10.6.2.1 Clothes Dryers

Table 10.6.3 through Table 10.6.5 show the cumulative national energy savings in 2014-

2043 associated with standards at the considered TSLs for clothes dryers.

Table 10.6.3 Clothes Dryers : Cumulative National Energy Savings in Quads

Product Class Trial Standard Level

1 2 3 4 5 6

Vented Electric Standard 0.001 0.038 0.347 0.347 1.268 2.923

Vented Electric Compact 120 V 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.002 0.003

Vented Electric Compact 24 0 V 0.000 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.006 0.016

Vented Gas 0.002 0.009 0.009 0.038 0.164 0.164

Vent

- less Electric Compact 240 V 0.000 0.002 0.002 0.000 0.004 0.016

Vent

- less Electric Combination

Washer/Dryer 0.000 0.011 0.011 0.000 0.011 0.023

Total 0.002 0.062 0.370 0.386 1.455 3.145

Table 10.6.4 Clothes Dryers : Cumulative National Energy Savings in Quads, Discounted

at 3 Percent

Product Class Trial Standard Level

1 2 3 4 5 6

Vented Electric Standard 0.000 0.021 0.190 0.190 0.696 1.605

Vented Electric Compact 120V 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.002

Vented Electric Compact 240V 0.000 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.003 0.009

Vented Gas 0.001 0.005 0.005 0.020 0.089 0.089

Vent

- less Electric Compact 240V 0.000 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.002 0.009

Vent

- less Electric Combination

Washer/Dryer 0.000 0.006 0.006 0.000 0.006 0.013

Total 0.001 0.034 0.203 0.212 0.797 1.72510-34 Table 10.6.5 Clothes Dryers : Cumulative National Energy Savings in Quads, Discounted

at 7 Percent

Product Class Trial Standard Level

1 2 3 4 5 6

Vented Electric Standard 0.000 0.011 0.095 0.095 0.349 0.805

Vented Electric Compact 120V 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.001

Vented Electric Compact 240V 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.002 0.004

Vented Gas 0.000 0.003 0.003 0.010 0.043 0.043

Vent

- less Electric Compact 240V 0.000 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.001 0.004

Vent

- less Electric Combination

Washer/Dryer 0.000 0.003 0.003 0.000 0.003 0.006

Total 0.001 0.017 0.102 0.106 0.399 0.864

10.6.2.2 R oom A ir C onditioners

Table 10.6.6 through Table 10.6.8 show the cumulative national energy savings in 2014-

2043 associated with standards at the considered TSLs for room air conditioners.

Table 10.6.6 Room Air Conditioners : Cumulative N ational Energy Savings in Quads

Product Class Trial Standard Level

1 2 3 4 5 6

Group 1

– includes PC 1 0.05 0.08 0.05 0.13 0.13 0.17

Group 2

– includes PC 2, 3, 4, 11 0.05 0.14 0.08 0.23 0.23 0.29

Group 3

– includes PC 5a, 9, 13 0.00 0.11 0.06 0.18 0.18 0.23

Group 4

– includes PC 5b, 10 0.00 0.08 0.05 0.13 0.13 0.17

Group 5

– includes PC 6, 7, 8a, 12 0.00 0.09 0.05 0.15 0.15 0.19

Group 6 – includes PC 8b, 14, 15, 16 0.00 0.09 0.05 0.15 0.15 0.19

Total 0.10 0.61 0.34 0.97 0.97 1.25

Table 10.6.7 Room Air Conditioners : Cumulative N ational Energy Savings in Quads,

Discounted at 3 Percent

Product Class Trial Standard Level

1 2 3 4 5 6

Group 1

– includes PC 1 0.03 0.05 0.03 0.08 0.08 0.10

Group 2

– includes PC 2, 3, 4, 11 0.03 0.09 0.05 0.14 0.14 0.18

Group 3

– includes PC 5a, 9, 13 0.00 0.07 0.04 0.11 0.11 0.14

Group 4

– includes PC 5b, 10 0.00 0.05 0.03 0.08 0.08 0.10

Group 5

– includes PC 6, 7, 8a, 12 0.00 0.06 0.03 0.09 0.09 0.12

Group 6

– includes PC 8b, 14, 15, 16 0.00 0.06 0.03 0.09 0.09 0.12

Total 0.06 0.37 0.21 0.59 0.59 0.7610-35 Table 10.6.8 Room Air Conditioners : Cumulative N ational Energy Savings in Quads,

Discounted at 7 Percent

Product Class Trial Standard Level

1 2 3 4 5 6

Group 1

– includes PC 1 0.02 0.03 0.02 0.05 0.05 0.06

Group 2

– includes PC 2, 3, 4, 11 0.02 0.05 0.03 0.08 0.08 0.10

Group 3

– includes PC 5a, 9, 13 0.00 0.04 0.02 0.06 0.06 0.08

Group 4

– includes PC 5b, 10 0.00 0.03 0.02 0.05 0.05 0.06

Group 5

– includes PC 6, 7, 8a, 12 0.00 0.03 0.02 0.05 0.05 0.06

Group 6

– includes PC 8b, 14, 15, 16 0.00 0.03 0.02 0.05 0.05 0.07

Total 0.04 0.21 0.12 0.33 0.33 0.42

10.6.3 Consumer Net Present Value Results by Trial Standard Level

10.6.3.1 Clothes Dryers

Table 10.6.9 and Table 10.6.10 show the consumer NPV results associated with standards

at the co nsidered TSLs for each clothes dryer product class. A negative NPV indicates that the

costs of a standard at a given efficiency level exceed the savings.

Table 10.6.9 Clothes Dryers: Cumulative Consumer Net Present Value, Discounted at

3 Percent

Product Class Trial St andard Level

1 2 3 4 5 6

Billion 200 9 $

Vented Electric Standard 0.01 0.40 2.78 2.78 2.13 0.56

Vented Electric Compact 120 V 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01

- 0.01

- 0.03

Vented Electric Compact 240 V 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01

- 0.07

- 0.12

Vented Gas 0.01 0.09 0.09 0.21

- 1.91

- 1.91

Vent

- less Electric Compact 240 V 0.00 0.02 0.02 0.00

- 0.01

- 0.04

Vent

- less Electric Combination Washer/Dryer 0.00 0.09 0.09 0.00 0.09 0.00

Total 0.02 0.62 3.00 3.01 0.22

- 1.5310-36 Table 10.6.10 Clothes Dryers: Cumulative Consumer Net Present Value, Discounted at 7

Percent

Product Class Trial Standard Level

1 2 3 4 5 6

Billion 200 9 $

Vented Electric Standard 0.00 0.17 1.02 1.02

- 1.08

- 5.02

Vented Electric Compact 120V 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

- 0.01

- 0.02

Vented Electric Compact 240V 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01

- 0.05

- 0.10

Vented Gas 0.01 0.04 0.04 0.05

- 1.47

- 1.47

Vent

- less Electric Compact 240V 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.00

- 0.01

- 0.05

Vent

- less Electric Combination Washer/Dryer 0.00 0.03 0.03 0.00 0.03

- 0.04

Total 0.01 0.25 1.10 1.08

- 2.60

- 6.72

10.6.3.2 Room Air Conditioners

Table 10.6.11 and Table 10.6.12 show the consumer NPV results associated with

standards at the considered TSLs for each room air conditioner product class group . A negative

NPV indicates that the costs of a standard at a given efficiency level exceed the savings.

Table 10.6.11 Room Air Conditioners : Cumulative Consumer Net Present Value,

Discounted at 3 Percent

Product Class Tri al Standard Level

1 2 3 4 5 6

Billion 200 9 $

Group 1

– includes PC 1 0.28 0.36 0.28 0.25 0.25

- 1.84

Group 2

– includes PC 2, 3, 4, 11 0.43 0.62 0.47 0.42 0.42

- 3.14

Group 3

– includes PC 5a, 9, 13 0.00 0.50 0.38 0.34 0.34

- 2.52

Group 4

– includes PC 5b, 10 0.00 0.36 0.28 0.25 0.25

- 1.84

Group 5

– includes PC 6, 7, 8a, 12 0.04 0.41 0.31 0.28 0.28

- 2.06

Group 6

– includes PC 8b, 14, 15, 16 0.01 0.41 0.31 0.28 0.28

- 2.07

Total 0.75 2.66 2.02 1.80 1.80

- 13.4710-37 Table 10.6.12 Room Air Conditioners: Cumulative Consumer Net Present Value,

Discounted at 7 Percent

Product Class Trial Standard Level

1 2 3 4 5 6

Billion 2009$

Group 1

– includes PC 1 0.12 0.12 0.12

- 0.02

- 0.02

- 1.39

Group 2

– includes PC 2, 3, 4, 11 0.21 0.21 0.20

- 0.03

- 0.03

- 2.37

Group 3

– includes PC 5a, 9, 13 0.00 0.16 0.16

- 0.03

- 0.03

- 1.90

Group 4

– includes PC 5b, 10 0.00 0.12 0.12

- 0.02

- 0.02

- 1.39

Group 5

– includes PC 6, 7, 8a, 12 0.02 0.13 0.13

- 0.02

- 0.02

- 1.56

Group 6

– includes PC 8b, 14, 15, 16 0.01 0.14 0.13

- 0.02

- 0.02

- 1.56

Total 0.35 0.88 0.86

- 0.15

- 0.15

- 10.1510-38 REFERENCES

1. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2010 with Projections to

2035 , 2010. Washington, DC. Report No. DOE/EIA -0383(2010).

< http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/ >