FAST FACTS:

✔ In 2002 a national survey by 

the Joint Center for Political and

Economic Studies asked black

respondents to identify themselves

as Democrats, independents or

Republicans. Although 63 percent

claimed to be Democrats, the 

number was down from 74 percent

in 2000. A slight increase from 24

to 29 percent resulted in independents, especially between the ages

of 26 and 35. In that 26 to 35 age

group there was a 20 percent

increase in Republicans from 5 to

15 percent in 2002.

Massachusetts Senator John Kerry

added to his string of victories by capturing

40 percent of the vote in the Wisconsin

Democratic primary on February 17. Kerry

has won 15 of 17 primaries and caucuses,

making him the clear front runner for the

Democratic presidential nomination. 

A strong second-place showing by North

Carolina Senator John Edwards with 34 

percent of the vote gave his campaign

renewed momentum. “I am surprised by the

strength of the surge. I’m not surprised by

the surge,” Edwards said. “We've surged in

a lot of states at the end when people got a

close look at me and my campaign.”

Former Vermont Governor Howard Dean

finished a disappointing third with 18 percent of the votes. Media reports say

Inside This Issue:

• Election Update

Kerry Wins, Edwards A Strong

Second in Wisconsin . . . . page1

• Minorities and the 2004 Election:

An Interview with 

Phil Tajitsu Nash . . . . . . . page 1

• Campaign Highlight: 

U.S. Latino Vote Viewed 

as Crucial in 2004 

Presidential Race . . . . . . page 6

• Arab Americans and the 2004

Election: An Interview with 

Jean AbiNader . . . . . . . . page 6

Election

FOCUS

FEBRUARY 18, 2004 U.S. Department of State ISSUE 1 • NO 5

Minorities will play a big part in the 2004 elections, especially in key states

such as California, Florida, New Mexico and Arizona. In a recent interview,

Washington File staff writer Darlisa Crawford spoke with Phil Tajitsu Nash, who

is a frequent political commentator, author of Winning Campaigns Online and

CEO of CampaignAdvantage.com.

Q: Are minority groups having an important impact 

on the Democratic primary and caucus races?

Nash: Until now, many of the states that have had primaries and caucuses have

not been those with large urban populations and percentages of minorities. New

Minorities and the 2004 Election: 

An Interview with Phil Tajitsu Nash

(continued on page 3)

(continued on page 2)

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via a listserv go to:

 http://www.usembassy.de/mail

Kerry Wins, Edwards A Strong

Second in Wisconsin

U.S. Sen. John Edwards smiles as he greets 

supporters at the American Serb Hall in Milwaukee,

Wisconsin on Tuesday, Feb. 17, 2004. 

(AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)
ELECTION FOCUS 2004

Dean will suspend his presidential

campaign on February 18 but leave his

name on the ballot. Ohio

Congressman Dennis Kucinich trailed

with 3 percent of the vote and the

Reverend Al Sharpton had 1 percent

of the vote.

Since Wisconsin’s Democratic 

primary was “open,” independents and

Republicans were allowed to cast 

ballots in the primary. According to a

CNN exit poll, Edwards fared better

than Kerry among independent voters

by nearly a 15-point margin, but Kerry

fared better among Democrats.

Edwards said, “If we’re going to win

the general election we’re going to

have to get independents, and this is

another in a long series of examples of

me being much more attractive to

independent voters.”

According to CNN senior political

analyst Bill Schneider, Edwards’

emphasis on job creation and his 

criticism of NAFTA — a free trade

agreement among Canada, the United

States and Mexico—had considerable

appeal in Wisconsin, where an estimated 80,000 manufacturing jobs have

been lost since 2000. 

“He’s challenging Howard Dean

and John Kerry for supporting

NAFTA, the trade agreement that

Wisconsin voters overwhelmingly

believe is causing a loss of American

jobs,” Schneider said. “And that 

populist economic message is bringing

a surge of support for Edwards from

voters who want to send a message.” 

On February 14 voters 

participated in caucuses in Nevada and

the District of Columbia. Armed with

the endorsement of retired General

Wesley Clark, who dropped out of the

race on February 11, Kerry secured 47

percent of the 9,126 ballots cast in the

District of Columbia. Sharpton won

20 percent and Dean, the previous

winner of the nonbinding District of

Columbia election got 18 percent.

Edwards placed fourth with 10 percent

and Kucinich got 3 percent.

Maintaining his lead, Kerry won 63

percent in Nevada’s caucuses while

Dean finished second with 17 percent

and Edwards placed third with 10 percent.

Although neither has won a primary caucus, Sharpton and Kucinich

have vowed to remain in the race

through the Democratic National

Convention in late July. Sharpton, who

advocates that the Democratic Party

platform reflect minority issues,

claims his second place victory in the

District of Colombia demonstrates that

“urban black voters...want to see us

having delegates at the convention and

representation of their concerns. The

party cannot be victorious in

November if they ignore that 

message.”

Kucinich, who opposes the Iraq

war and advocates the return of U.S.

troops to American soil, said, “It is at

the convention where I will win the

nomination, based on the emergence

of Iraq as the defining issue.”

Although the next contests on

February 24 are caucuses in Hawaii

and Idaho and a primary in Utah, it is

“Super Tuesday” on March 2, the

largest single collection of primaries

and caucuses on the Democratic 

calendar that will be most influential

in the selection of a Democratic presidential nominee. ■

2 ELECTION FOCUS 2004

The U.S. Department of State is pleased to present its election coverage newsletter, Election Focus 2004. The 

newsletter will provide non-partisan coverage of the U.S. election process, featuring articles, interviews, public opinion

polls, and other information on the presidential primaries, debates, conventions and campaign activities of the major 

presidential candidates.

Election Focus 2004 is produced by the Democracy and Human Rights team in the Bureau of International Information

Programs.

— BUREAU OF —

INTERNATIONAL 

INFORMATION

PROGRAMS

U.S. DEPARTMENT OF STATE

(continued from page 1)
Hampshire and Iowa, for example,

have some of the smallest percentages

of minorities of any states in the 

country. This is why a lot of people

think that the right to be the first states

to cast votes in the presidential 

election cycle should be rotated every

four years. The District of Columbia,

which has a very large percentage of

minorities, tried to become the first

balloting place this year, but was

rebuffed by most of the candidates and

by the Democratic National

Committee. It nevertheless held a

non-binding primary in January before

the Iowa caucuses.

Since then, other states with more

minorities have held primaries and

caucuses, including, South Carolina,

which has about 50 percent African

American voters. Missouri has about

15 percent African American voters,

and Delaware also has about 15 

percent African American voters.

Then, as the primaries in California

and other large states approach in

early March, we should see more and

more minority participation.

February 3rd was called “Hispanic

Tuesday” by some Democratic

activists to highlight the importance of

Hispanic voters in Arizona (25 percent

Hispanic) and New Mexico (42 percent Hispanic, with a governor, Bill

Richardson, who is Hispanic).

President Bush also has traveled to

these states recently to tout his jobcreation and immigration policies, so

you know that the Hispanic 

community is making its voice heard.

A coalition of Asian Pacific

Americans recently released a detailed

political agenda to remind Republican

and Democratic politicians that Asian

Pacific Americans are an important

source of votes in 15 of the 50 states.

Nine and one-half percent of the eligible voting population in California is

Asian Pacific American, for example,

and California has the most electoral

votes of any state in the United States.

Q: Does geography sway the

party affiliation of minority

voting blocs?

Nash: It’s more than simple 

geography. You really have to know

the history of the specific communities. For example, the Miami area has

a lot of Hispanics but they tend to be

from Cuba, and they came when they

left the island when Fidel Castro took

over back in 1959. They tend to be

more middle and upper class, and they

tend to gravitate more toward the

Republican Party. Now, they have

become a very significant Republican

voting bloc, sending people to

Congress and electing local officials.

In the geographical areas near

Mexico, there are more Mexican

Americans, who tend to gravitate

toward the Democratic Party. So 

within a single minority there can be

differences in terms of which national

group they came from and the time

period they came to the U.S..

Q: How important will the

“swing voters” be in this

election? And are there

many swing voters among

minorities?

Nash: I would say the Asian Pacific

American community is a wild card in

this election. There are quite a number

ELECTION FOCUS 2004

WWW.USEMBASSY.DE/USA 3

(continued from page 1)

Minorities and the 2004

Election: An Interview with

Phil Tajitsu Nash

“A coalition of 

Asian Pacific Americans

recently released a detailed 

political agenda to remind

Republican and Democratic

politicians that Asian Pacific

Americans are an important

source of votes in 15 of 

the 50 states. Nine and 

one-half percent of the 

eligible voting population in

California is Asian Pacific

American, for example, and

California has the most 

electoral votes of any state

in the United States.”

— Phil Tajitsu Nash, 

political commentator and CEO of

CampaignAdvantage.com

The opinions expressed in this article are those of the interviewee and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of the U.S. Government.
of Asian Pacific Americans who are

still trying to develop more political

clout within both major parties. They

are already a force in California,

where we see a large number of Asian

Pacific American state representatives,

and in Hawaii, where Asian Pacific

Americans are the majority in both

houses of the state legislature.

African Americans have been a

very strong Democratic constituency

and have successfully elected officials

in places such as Atlanta and in other

cities in the South, and in the

Midwest. There are a number of

African American mayors and 

members of Congress and statewide

leaders in quite a few states. 

However, I don’t see anything

changing this year with the African

American community. I think, if 

anything, they’re probably going to get

more Democratic than they were in

the past, because a lot of African

Americans are not very happy at the

economic situation they’ve seen in the

last three years.

Q: Is the Democratic Party 

or the Republican Party 

benefiting from the nation’s

growing racial diversity?

Nash: Both major parties, as well as

the Green Party and Libertarian Party,

and other parties, are trying to reach

out to members of these minority

communities, and in fact you are seeing more and more minority

candidates. Latinos, African

Americans, Asian Americans and

Native Americans are rising up in the

ranks in their respective party organizations all around the country.

Q: According to a recent

poll, 54 percent of Hispanic

voters, a traditionally

Democratic constituency,

believe that President Bush

is doing a good job. Are

there more Hispanic

Republicans voting in this

election?

Nash: Election polls in 10 states

with high concentrations of Hispanics

in 2002 found that only one-third of

Hispanics voted Republican in most

races, but up to one-half did in certain

gubernatorial races. Pollsters also

found, however, that those Hispanics

who voted had higher levels of education and income than the community

as a whole. Lower income Hispanics

and those who identify themselves as

“independents” (which usually means

“Democrat” for Hispanics) tended to

stay home for various reasons, including dislike of dirty campaigns.

President Bush is trying to attract

Hispanics this election cycle with a

plan to allow some previously 

undocumented Hispanics to work here

legally for three years.

Q: Will the women’s vote 

be a deciding factor in this

election?

Nash: The women’s vote is important in every election. It's hard to say

whether it will be more decisive than

it’s been in the past, but there are at

this time, a number of women 

governors, lieutenant governors and

attorneys general. We’re starting to see

more and more female statewide officers who rise to national office. We’re

seeing women in the highest ranks in

the parties, for example, the chair of

the Iowa Democratic Party. We’re 

seeing a lot of strength among women

candidates and also women campaign

officials. I think that’s going to 

translate into more women voters and

more women candidates in this 

election in November.

Q: More young voters are

expected to participate in 

the 2004 election. For 

example, voters under age

25 will make up seven or

eight percent of the voting 

population. What are some

of the issues that will appeal

to younger voters and 

how are the Democratic 

candidates campaigning 

for this generation?

Nash: Over the past few elections

there has been a lot more focus on

senior citizens, on health care issues

and other things that impact an older

population. But key issues in 2004,

such as jobs, education and the war in

Iraq will have some resonance for

younger voters. I think that these

younger voters are being energized by

political campaigning on the Internet,

and I expect more of them will get

involved with one party or the other as

a result. ■

READ MORE ABOUT IT

Will Youth Rock The Vote This Year?

http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/04_07/b3870107.htm

Wooing Hispanics

http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/politics/july-dec03/hispanics_09-04.html

“Electability” is the Primary Issue for

Black Voters

http://www.jointcenter.org/whatsnew/020504-story.htm

ELECTION FOCUS 2004

4 ELECTION FOCUS 2004

The opinions expressed in this article are those of the interviewee and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of the U.S. Government.
Latino voters in the United States

will play a key role, and could be the

decisive factor, in determining who

wins the 2004 U.S. presidential race,

say representatives from the two major

American political parties and experts

who chart the Latino vote.

Latinos are now the largest minority group in the United States. The latest

U.S. Census Bureau figures show 38.8

million Latinos in the country, and their

influence is especially felt in states with

large Latino populations, such as

Florida, New York, Illinois, Texas,

California and New Jersey, as they hold

181 of the 270 electoral votes needed to

take the presidency. An estimated six

million Latinos participated in the 2000

presidential election, and that number is

expected to increase in 2004.

The Democratic and Republican

political parties both are heavily

engaged in outreach efforts to woo

Latinos to their side. The Republicans,

for instance, have posted on their

Spanish-language website an initiative

called “Abriendo Caminos” (Forging

New Paths), which serves as that party’s

gateway to extolling what it says are

President Bush's efforts to aid Latinos.

As in 2000, the Republicans are

also employing what they call the

“Team Leader Project,” in which speakers from the Bush administration inform

local communities about Republican

legislative proposals to assist Latinos.

Nicole Guillemard, director of outreach at the Republican National

Committee in Washington, said Bush

won about 35 percent of the Latino vote

in the 2000 presidential election and her

party hopes to significantly improve on

that mark this year. That turnout for

Bush was a decided improvement over

the 21 percent won by the 1996

Republican candidate, former Senator

Bob Dole. The Republicans also take

heart in the fact that some polls show

that Latinos, traditionally a Democratic

constituency, are now less likely to automatically identify themselves as

Democrats.

The Republicans view the Latino

vote as “very crucial” in the presidential

election, emphasized Guillemard.

Meanwhile, Nelson Reyneri, director of Hispanic Outreach for the

Democratic National Committee, said

his party has a five-part outreach strategy for capturing Latinos, built around

the theme of “Juntos Podemos”

(Together We Can).

Under that strategy, the Democrats

hope to expand their traditional support

from Latinos, recognizing that the party

cannot “rest on its laurels” to appeal to

that large voting bloc, said Reyneri. The

strategy includes holding Hispanic

Leadership Summits to reach out to

Latino leaders. The party plans such a

summit May 14-16 in Orlando, Florida,

attended by some 200 Democratic

Hispanic elected and appointed officials, party activists and the eventual

Democratic presidential nominee.

The Democrats seek to expand on

the 62 percent of the Latino vote won

by former Vice President Al Gore in the

2000 match-up against Bush. The

Latino vote will be a “critical factor” on

who wins the White House, said

Reyneri.

A leading pollster of Latino voting

trends, Sergio Bendixen, found that as

of early February, Bush would receive

34 percent Latino support against an

unnamed Democratic opponent —

about the same percentage as in 2000.

However, that does not necessarily

rebound in the Democrats’ favor,

Bendixen said. His polling showed an

unnamed Democratic opponent receiving 48 percent of the vote — far below

the mid-60s level Democrats believe

they need among Latinos to win the

White House.

Bendixen said the biggest issues for

U.S. Latinos are education, jobs, health

care, the war in Iraq and immigration.

On that latter issue, Bendixen said

Latinos are split about 42 percent in

favor, 20 percent against regarding

Bush's new proposal to issue temporary

work permits to temporary workers in

the United States, the large majority of

them from Mexico. However, opposition to the plan more than doubled

when respondents were told most temporary workers would have to return to

their home countries at the end of three

or six years.

A poll released January 8 by the

Washington-based Pew Hispanic Center

found that Latinos were less supportive

of the war in Iraq and of Bush as a reelection candidate than the U.S. general

population as a whole. The poll found

that about 36 percent of Latinos support

Bush's re-election.

5

Campaign★★Highlight

U.S. Latino Vote Viewed as Crucial 

in 2004 Presidential Race

WWW.USEMBASSY.DE/USA

ELECTION FOCUS 2004
Arab Americans, especially since

9/11, have become increasingly

involved in state and local politics

both as voters and political candidates.

Jean AbiNader, managing director of

the Arab American Institute, businessman and adjunct professor at

Georgetown University, spoke with

Washington File staff writer Alexandra

Abboud about Arab Americans and

the 2004 election.

Q. What are the important

issues that Arab American

voters would like to see

addressed in the 2004 

election?

I think it’s important to note that

this year there is much deviation from

previous voter patterns. In the 2000

elections, for example, domestic issues

were as high as any foreign policy

issue in the Arab American community. Arab Americans share a broad

range of domestic concerns with other

Americans such as employment, taxation, education, health care, Social

Security, Medicare and school vouchers. 

Since 9/11, however, the most

important domestic issues have been

civil liberties, protecting the rights of

Arab American citizens, immigrant

rights and protections in areas such as

visa policies and programs. 

I think the chief foreign policy

issues that are of concern in the Arab

American Community are the

Palestinian-Israeli conflict, what many

believe to be the lack of a comprehensive international strategy for the

reconstruction of Iraq and disrespect

toward Islam and Muslim peoples in

general. 

Q. Many Arab Americans 

live in important election

battleground states like

Michigan, Illinois,

Pennsylvania, Ohio and

Florida. Are we seeing an

effort by the Democratic 

and Republican parties to

reach out to these voters?

A: The fact that seven out of the nine

Democratic candidates directly

addressed the Arab American National

Leadership conference in Dearborn,

Michigan in October 2003, and that

the Republicans sent Marc Racicot,

the chair of the Bush-Cheney 2004

campaign to the conference, demonstrates their recognition not only that

Arab Americans are registered voters

in large numbers, but that they do

vote, particularly at a time like this

where there are so many visible issues

that are motivating the community. So

there is definitely an effort being

made, particularly in these critical

states, to reach out to Arab American

voters.

Q. Typically, what are 

the political leanings of 

Arab Americans?

A: It pretty much reflects the national

trend — about 45 percent Republican,

43 percent Democrat. The rest are

independents who don't declare a

party preference.

Arab Americans break down pretty much just like other Americans do.

As a result of issues such as Palestine,

the war in Iraq and civil liberties, it

appears that Arab Americans are moving more toward the Democratic Party

or making the Republican Party

answer very tough questions about

what the United States is going to do

to improve the policies in those areas.

Because the Arab American community is largely professionals,

educated and small business owners,

there’s a very strong tendency toward

being more conservative as both

Democrats and Republicans. But in

general, how people vote in each election very much depends on the issues

that are raised and the quality of the

candidates.

Lisa Garcia Bedolla, assistant 

professor of Chicano/Latino Studies 

at the Irvine campus of the University

of California, said the Latino vote will

not be as important in California and

New York.

Where the Latino influence will

count most, she said, is in such “battleground states” as New Mexico,

Arizona, Colorado, Nevada, Florida and

Illinois where the Latino population has

dramatically increased in just a few

years and the state vote could swing

either Democratic or Republican. ■

Arab Americans and the 2004

Election: An Interview with Jean

AbiNader

ELECTION FOCUS 2004

6 ELECTION FOCUS 2004
ELECTION FOCUS 2004

HTTP://USINFO.STATE.GOV 7

Since 9/11, for example, there has

been a dramatic shift in the approval

ratings of the president, and a

December 2003 poll and a January

2004 poll, show that Arab American

support for the president has dropped

from 45 percent to less than 20 percent.

Q. Are we seeing an increase

in Arab American participation

in politics both in terms of

voting and in running for

political office? 

A: I think there is greater participation

across the board. For example, at

almost all the major mosques and Arab

Community Centers, there are voter

registration drives on a regular basis. 

There is a heightened awareness

among Arab Americans that they can’t

avoid the political process if they want

to defend their rights — that they have

to be part of the process.

When Arab Americans first came

here, the first immigrants — like most

immigrants — were interested and

concerned about economic issues such

as finding a job, raising their families

and providing education for their kids.

So public service was not high on

their agenda. 

But after one or two generations,

you start to have people look around

and say, “Listen, if we’re going to really participate in this society, public

service is something we have to look

to.” And so we have great role models.

We have, for example, West Virginia

Congressman Nick Rahall, former

governor John Sununu, former U.S.

Office of Management and Budget

Director Mitch Daniels, the late

Najeeb Halaby, former chairman of

Pan American World Airways and the

father of Jordan’s Queen Noor, and

former Maine Senator George

Mitchell. There are both Democrats

and Republican roll models for Arab

Americans in terms of public service.

Also, we are seeing a lot more

young people involved in get-out-thevote efforts and in voter registration

efforts, and we feel very strongly that

Arab Americans are really starting to

get it — that they can’t wait only

every four years to participate in the

process, but that they have to be part

of it constantly. And Arab Americans

as candidates are much more sophisticated than they were years ago

because they recognize that voting is

done primarily on a local basis on

local issues, and Arab Americans are

as much a part of the local community

as anyone else.

The work of the Arab American

Institute is really just encouraging

Arab Americans to accept their

responsibility as citizens, not once

every four years, but on a continuing

basis, so that not only are they concerned about who is elected president,

but what the school boards are doing,

what is being done about traffic congestion and if we have safe streets.

This is all part of becoming responsible members of the community, and

we find a very, very positive response

among Arab Americans.

Particularly interesting now is getting the immigrants to understand

their role in the community. In the past

it was easier to do this with Arab

Americans who had been in the

United States or were born here, and

whose parents were born here. But

now we’re also seeing the newly

arrived immigrants who understand

that this is a challenge that can only be

met if they take personal responsibility

for it by becoming good citizens. ■

The opinions expressed in this article are those of the interviewee and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of the U.S. Government.