2018 Annual Government-wide Federal 

Receivables Management Symposium

Back to Basics: Living the Legacy of the

Debt Collection Improvement Act (DCIA)

May 23 & 24, 2018

L E A D ∙ T R A N S F O R M ∙ D E L I V E R
The Application of Business Intelligence to 

Better Understand Your Debt Portfolio

Art Kolasa & David Burgess

May 23 & 24, 2018

L E A D ∙ T R A N S F O R M ∙ D E L I V E R
DMS Business Analytics

L E A D ∙ T R A N S F O R M ∙ D E L I V E R Page 3

2018 Annual Government-wide Federal Receivables Management Symposium

The Business Analytics Branch (BAB) works closely with all of DMS to 

ensure that project plans, legislative initiatives, and strategic goals are 

financially feasible and sound.

• Responsible for analyzing trends, developing costbenefit analyses, and compiling special (and complex) 

financial reports.

• Provides critical information to management based on 

various financial and statistical models.

• Prepares a wide range of highly substantive economic, 

debt, monetary, and financial analyses, evaluations, and 

policy recommendations.

• Analyzes the delinquent debt and expenditures for 

various Federal debt collection programs in light of 

economic trends; deploy, update, and institutionalize 

performance management, business intelligence, and 

quantitative analytics throughout the DMS organization.
Business Intelligence

L E A D ∙ T R A N S F O R M ∙ D E L I V E R

 Meta Data.

 Information about the data that you provide.

 Debt Characterization.

 Descriptive statistics on your portfolio.

 Trend Analysis.

 Evolution of patterns over time.

 Predictive Analytics.

 Using machine learning/econometrics to predict outcomes.

 Forecasting.

 Using patterns in trends to forecast.

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2018 Annual Government-wide Federal Receivables Management Symposium
DMS Data

L E A D ∙ T R A N S F O R M ∙ D E L I V E R

 Treasury collects delinquent federal nontax debts, such as those 

owed to Agency X, through the Treasury Offset Program (TOP) and 

Cross-Servicing.

 TOP offsets state and federal payments to collect federal nontax debt.

 Cross-Servicing uses the full suite of debt collection tools (demand 

letters, calls, administrative wage garnishment, private collection 

agencies and credit reporting) to collect delinquent debts.

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2018 Annual Government-wide Federal Receivables Management Symposium
Cross Servicing: Agency X Active Debts

L E A D ∙ T R A N S F O R M ∙ D E L I V E R

Cross-Servicing: Agency X Debts as of April 31, 2018

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2018 Annual Government-wide Federal Receivables Management Symposium

Number of 

Active Debts Outstanding Balance

Agency X 53,201 $349,677,813.15

Source: Cross-Servicing Agency Reconciliation Report. This report only allows the user to select an 

end of month date and provides data from program inception to the end of month date. 
Cross-Servicing: Data Quality Measures

L E A D ∙ T R A N S F O R M ∙ D E L I V E R

Taxpayer Identification (TIN) Compliance

Batch File Processing

 Agency X refers via batch processing

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2018 Annual Government-wide Federal Receivables Management Symposium

Cases Referred 

with a TIN

Total Cases 

Referred

% Cases Referred 

with a TIN

Q1 FY 2016 826 1,499 55%

Q2 FY 2016 564 942 60%

Q3 FY 2016 365 434 84%

Q4 FY 2016 570 664 86%

Q1 FY 2017 528 437 83%

Q2 FY 2017 662 752 88%
120-Day Debt Referral Compliance

L E A D ∙ T R A N S F O R M ∙ D E L I V E R

The Digital Accountability and Transparency Act of 2014 (DATA Act) requires 

federal agencies to refer their eligible delinquent non-tax debts to DMS for 

administrative offset at 120 days. This requirement was implemented in Q1 FY 

2016 TROR reporting period. As of Q2 FY 2017, Agency X has 58,662 debts 

eligible for referral to TOP. Of those, 58,662 were referred, representing a 100% 

compliance rate.

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2018 Annual Government-wide Federal Receivables Management Symposium

DATA Act 

Compliance

FY16 

1st Quarter

FY16 

2nd Quarter

FY16 

3rd Quarter

FY16 

4th Quarter

FY17 

1st Quarter

FY17 

2nd Quarter

Eligible Debt 

Count 72,980 60,881 59,250 59,333 59,129 58,662

Referred Debt 

Count 58,726 60,769 59,079 59,331 59,125 58,662

Remaining 

Balance Not 

Referred

14,254 112 171 2 4 0

Referred 

Percentage 83.8% 99.9% 99.9% 99.8% 99.9% 100%
Cross-Servicing: Agency X Debt Portfolio

L E A D ∙ T R A N S F O R M ∙ D E L I V E R

 Agency X has referred 161,971 debts to Cross-Servicing (CS) since September 2005.

 About one-fourth of Agency X debts (23%) are closed due to recalls.

 48% of Agency X debts are closed due to full collection.

 Agency X Cross-Servicing net collections total $254 M.

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2018 Annual Government-wide Federal Receivables Management Symposium

Currently 

Active Number of Cases Total Referral 

Amount ($)

Net Total Collection 

Amount* ($)

Percent of Cases 

Recalled** (%)

Percent of Cases 

Fully Satisfied*** (%)

Yes 53,446 317,287,319 51,943,366 0 0

No 108,525 397,361,767 201,767,908 23 48

Total 161,971 714,649,086 253,711,274 16 32

Source: Cross-Servicing cases referred from 09/23/2005 - 05/31/2017.

* Includes adjustments, reversals and CS payments. 

** Cases marked with disposition codes “Recall”, “Out of Business”, or “Bankruptcy”. 

*** Cases marked with disposition codes “Paid in Full”, “Satisfied”, or “Satisfied PA”. 
Cross-Servicing: Debt Characterizations

L E A D ∙ T R A N S F O R M ∙ D E L I V E R

 Bureau C debts make up 65% of all Agency X referrals.

 Bureau B, Bureau A and Bureau E make up, respectively, 15%, 10% and 7% of referrals.

– The median referral amount of these debts ranges from $415 to $501.

 Bureau D debts are large and very collectable.

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2018 Annual Government-wide Federal Receivables Management Symposium

Bureau Name* Number of 

Cases

Median 

Referral 

Amount ($)

Cases with at 

Least One CS 

Payment* (%)

Median Collection 

Amount, Given at 

Least One CS 

Payment* ($)

Median Number of 

Days Since 

Delinquency

Cases 

Commercial (%)

Bureau A 13,904 476 35 477 127 38

Bureau B 18,115 415 25 534 82 20

Bureau C 79,427 2,152 19 800 423 0

Bureau D** 82 80,145 41 107,777 476 100

Bureau E 8,554 501 13 437 524 58

Other 2,298 1,277 30 661 287 77

Total 122,380 2,078 22 575 393 13

Source: Cross-Servicing cases referred from CY 2007-2014.

* Two-year collection cycle 

** Bureau D are overpayments.
Cross-Servicing: Trend Analysis

L E A D ∙ T R A N S F O R M ∙ D E L I V E R

 The CS payment and collection rates have fluctuated over time.

 The median collection amount, given at least one payment, has seen a steady increase from 2007 –

2014.

 2012 to 2014 referrals pay about two to five months later than 2008 to 2011 referrals.

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2018 Annual Government-wide Federal Receivables Management Symposium

Source: Cross-Servicing cases referred from CY 2007-2014.

* Two-year collection cycle

Referral Year Number of 

Referrals

Cases with at 

Least One CS 

Payment* (%)

Median Collection 

Amount, Given at 

Least One CS 

Payment* ($)

Mean CS Collection 

Percentage* (%)

Median Number of 

Days to First CS 

Payment

2007 20,204 16 442 16 107

2008 10,226 23 535 24 72

2009 5,763 28 553 32 72

2010 5,293 27 502 31 58

2011 7,236 22 455 20 55

2012 30,487 21 688 12 170

2013 34,526 21 882 13 203

2014 8,646 31 719 25 109

Total 122,380 22 663 17 143
Cross-Servicing: Bureau C Referrals

L E A D ∙ T R A N S F O R M ∙ D E L I V E R

 Bureau C debts drive the fluctuations in Agency X’s referrals.

– The 2012 and 2013 referral spikes were caused by a significant economic event driving increased revenue.

 The median referral amount of Bureau C debts has fluctuated from 2007 – 2014.

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2018 Annual Government-wide Federal Receivables Management Symposium

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Median Referral Amount ($)

Number of Referrals

Referral Year (CY)

Bureau C Referrals 

Number of Referrals Median Referral Amount

Source: Cross-Servicing cases referred from CY 2007-2014.

* Two-year collection cycle
Cross-Servicing: Collections

L E A D ∙ T R A N S F O R M ∙ D E L I V E R

 Collections from Bureau C and Bureau D make up 85% of all Agency X collections.

– The 2007 and 2012 to 2014 collections influxes correspond to the surge of Bureau C and Bureau D referrals 

during those years.

 Bureau A, Other, and Bureau B collections total $10M, $9M and $4M, respectively.

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2018 Annual Government-wide Federal Receivables Management Symposium

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Millions ($)

Referral Year (CY)

Total CS Collections*, by Bureau and Referral Year

Source: Cross-Servicing cases referred from CY 2007-2014.

* Two-year collection cycle

** Bureau D had no referrals from 2007-2010. 
Cross-Servicing: Payment Agreement Effectiveness

L E A D ∙ T R A N S F O R M ∙ D E L I V E R

 Analytics is currently analyzing the effectiveness of different collection tools.

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2018 Annual Government-wide Federal Receivables Management Symposium

All Payment Agreements Installment Agreements Only

Agency Number of 

PAs

Percent of

Cases that 

Get PAs

Percent 

Voluntary 

One Time 

Full PAs

Percent 

Paid in Full

Average 

Referral 

Amount

Percent 

with at 

Least One 

Payment

Average 

Collection 

Amount

Average 

Collection 

Rate

Agency Y 14,879 11% 18% 25% $ 14,614 86% $ 3,416 33%

All Other 

Agencies 271,064 12% 46% 38% $ 3,904 75% $ 1,909 53%

Agency Compromise Number of Cases Average Referral Amount Average Collection Rate

Agency Y

No 13,568 $ 16,470 38.4%

Yes 1,311 $ 36,450 54.2%

Source: Cross-Servicing cases with resolved payment agreements from CY 2007-2013

Source: Cross-Servicing cases from CY 2007-2013
Cross-Servicing: AWG Effectiveness

L E A D ∙ T R A N S F O R M ∙ D E L I V E R

 Debts that were associated with entities are ineligible for AWG. Thus, consumer debts 

are the majority of debts that lead to AWG collections.

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2018 Annual Government-wide Federal Receivables Management Symposium

Number of AWG 

Orders Number of Debts Average Referral Amount Average AWG Collection 

Amount 

Percentage With AWG 

Payment

Total AWG Collection 

Amount

1 12,187 $33,608 $2,085 41% $25,405,403 

2 1,816 $27,508 $1,625 43% $2,950,720 

3 195 $22,574 $1,763 53% $343,733 

No AWG 119,808 $71,775 N/A N/A 0

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Number of Debts

Calendar Year

Debts with AWG Orders, by Year

1 Order 2 Orders 3 or More Orders

Source: Cross-Servicing cases with AWG orders from CY 2009-2014
Treasury Offset Program: Collections

L E A D ∙ T R A N S F O R M ∙ D E L I V E R

 Annual collections for Agency X debts through the Treasury Offset Program (TOP) have ranged 

from approximately $0.5 M to $1.2 M in recent years.

 Agency X collections peaked in FY 2015 at $1.2 M.

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2018 Annual Government-wide Federal Receivables Management Symposium

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 (through

May)

Thousands ($)

Fiscal Year

Agency X Collections, FY 2012 - 2016
Treasury Offset Program: Collection Patterns

L E A D ∙ T R A N S F O R M ∙ D E L I V E R

 Driven by tax refund offsets, collections are highly seasonal.

 72% of collections occur during tax season (February – April).

– 35% of collections occur in February.

– Offsets reach a low in December with average collections of $2,511.

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2018 Annual Government-wide Federal Receivables Management Symposium

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar April May June July Aug Sept

Thousands ($)

Month

Average Monthly Offsets, FY 2012 - 2016 
Treasury Offset Program: Referrals

L E A D ∙ T R A N S F O R M ∙ D E L I V E R

 From FY 2008 – 2016, the referred balance ranged from approximately $6 M to $35 M.

 Agency X experienced a dip in TOP referrals in FY 2012 at $6 M.

 There was a 410% increased in the referred balance from FY 2013-2014.

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2018 Annual Government-wide Federal Receivables Management Symposium

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Millions ($)

Fiscal Year

Agency X*

Referred Balance and Current Balance by Referral Year

Referred Balance Current Balance

* Note: One $138 M debt was referred in FY 2016 with a decimal point error. The referral amount of this debt has been corrected to $1.3 M. 
Treasury Offset Program: Offsets and Reversals

L E A D ∙ T R A N S F O R M ∙ D E L I V E R

 Agency X offsets experienced a 60% increase between FY 2013 and FY 2016.

 The number of Agency X offsets peaked in 2015 at 962.

 Reversals over the last five fiscal years have averaged 2% of total offsets.

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2018 Annual Government-wide Federal Receivables Management Symposium

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Count

Fiscal Year 

Number of Offsets and Reversals, FY 2012 - 2016

Number of Offsets Number of Reversals
Additional Analyses

L E A D ∙ T R A N S F O R M ∙ D E L I V E R

 Further areas of analysis could include:

 Using machine learning to predict debt outcomes. This is debt 

segmentation.

 Using forecasting models to predict trends, such as collection 

volumes and referral volumes.

 Analysis moves away from looking at things as they are, to try to 

guess what they will be.

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2018 Annual Government-wide Federal Receivables Management Symposium