NISTIR 85-3273-8

(Rev. 10/93)

MIST

PUBLICATIONS

A111DM 3nSDfi

Energy Prices and Discount Factors

for Life-Cycle Cost Analysis 1 994

Annual Supplement to Stephen R. Petersen

NIST Handbook 135 and

NBS Special Publication 709

~QC“

100

U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

Technology Administration

National Institute of Standards

and Technology

Prepared for United States Department of Energy

Federal Energy Management Program

.1156 October 1993

85-5273-8

1993

NISTIR 85-3273-8

(Rev. 10/93)

ENERGY PRICES AND DISCOUNT FACTORS

FOR LIFE-CYCLE COST ANALYSIS 1994

Annual Supplement to

NIST Handbook 135 and

NBS Special Publication 709

Data for the Federal Methodology for Life-Cycle Cost Analysis, Title 10, CFR, Part 436, Subpart A; and for the Energy Conservation Mandatory Performance Standards for New

Federal Residential Buildings, Tiitle 10, CFR, Part 435

Stephen R. Petersen

Computing and Applied Mathematics Laboratory

Office of Applied Economics

Gaithersburg, MD 20899

October 1 993

Prepared for: U.S. Department of Energy

Office of the Assistant Secretary for

Conservation and Renewable Energy

Federal Energy Management Program

Washington, DC 20585

U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE, Ronald H. Brown, Secretary

Technology Administration, Mary L. Good, Under Secretary for Technology

National Institute of Standards and Technology, Arati Prabhakar, Director

FOREWORD

Please note that Federal Methodology for Life-Cycle Cost Analysis, Title 10, CFR, Part 436,

Subpart A was revised in November 1990 to incorporate changes required by the Federal Energy

Management Improvement Act of 1988 (P.L. 100-615), and to reflect 10-years experience with the

Federal LCC Rule.

The principal change resulted in the FEMP discount rate being set annually by DOE. The FEMP

discount rate for 1994 is 3.1% real (i.e., net of general price inflation), equivalent to a market rate of 7.0%. The FEMP discount rate is based on long-term Treasury bond rates averaged over the

previous 12 months. This market rate is converted to a real rate using the assumed rate of general

price inflation in the Economic Report of the President’s Council of Economic Advisors, to correspond with the constant-dollar analysis approach that is used. The results are identical to those

that would be obtained by using the 7.0% market rate as the discount rate and inflating all cash flows

at the assumed rate of inflation. (For further discussion of changes in the Federal life-cycle costing

rule see Notice of Final Rulemaking, Federal Register . November 20, 1990, Vol. 55, No. 224.)

In addition, for the first time this Annual Supplement uses the term "present value" instead of

"present worth" for the discount factors presented. The meaning of these two terms is considered

to be identical for purposes of economic analysis. This change in terminology was made to be

consistent with the terms used in the American Society for Testing and Materials (ASTM)

compilation of standards on building economics (ASTM Standards on Building Economics . Second

Edition, ASTM, Philadelphia, PA, 1992.)

The SPV, UPV, and UPV* factors in Part I of this report are given both for the FEMP discount rate and for the OMB Circular A-94 discount rates. The former are for evaluating Federal energy

conservation and renewable energy projects. The latter are for evaluating Federal projects subject

to OMB Circular A-94, i.e., most Federal capital investment projects, other than energy projects and

water-resources projects.

It should be noted that OMB Circular A-94 on guidelines and discount rates for benefit-cost analysis

of federal programs was extensively revised in October 1992. There is no longer a single OMB

discount rate as in the past. OMB has specified two basic types of discount rates: (1) a discount

rate for cost-effectiveness, lease-purchase, and related analyses; and (2) a discount rate for public

investment and regulatory analyses. Only discount rates for the first type of analyses are included

in this Annual Supplement, since the primary purpose of this report is to support cost-effectiveness

studies related to the design and operation of federal facilities.

Discount rates for cost-effectiveness and lease-purchase studies are based on interest rates on

Treasury Notes and Bonds with maturities ranging from 3 to 30 years. Currently (as of February

1993) five maturities have been specifically identified by OMB, and are shown here with the

corresponding real interest rate to be used as the discount rate for studies subject to OMB Circular

A-94:

Maturity:

Rate:

3-vear 5-vear 7-vear 10-vear 30-vear

3.1% 3.6% 4.0% 4.3% 4.5%
OMB suggests that the actual discount rate for an economic analysis be interpolated from these

maturities and rates, based on the study period used in the analysis.

Due to limitations on the size of this Annual Supplement, discount factors for only two of these

maturities are presented: a rate for short-term analyses (up to 10 years) based on the 7-year rate (4.0%), and a rate for long-term analyses (longer than 10 years) based on the 30-year rate (4.5%).

As a result, these discount factors are for approximation purposes only. It is suggested that the NIST

Building Life Cycle Cost (BLCC) or DISCOUNT programs be used to compute the present value

factors for the discount rate corresponding to the length of the study period when approximate values

are not satisfactory for the project analysis.

IV
PREFACE

This is the 1994 edition of energy prices and discount factors for life-cycle cost analysis as established by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) in Subpart A of Part 436 of Title 10 of the

Code of Federal Regulations (10 CFR Part 436, Subpart A), and amplified in the Life-Cvcle Costing

Manual for the Federal Energy Management Program (NIST Handbook 135). The data are provided

as an aid to implementing life-cycle cost evaluations of potential energy conservation and renewable

energy investments in existing and new Federally owned and leased buildings.

The life-cycle costing methods and procedures as set forth in 10 CFR, Part 436, Subpart A, are to be followed by all Federal agencies, unless specifically exempted, in evaluating the cost effectiveness

of potential energy conservation and renewable energy investments in Federally owned and leased

buildings.

As called for by legislation, the National Institute of Standards and Technology has provided

technical assistance to the U.S. Department of Energy in the development and implementation of life- cycle costing methods and procedures. This is the second of a three-volume set which together

provide the methods, data, and computational tools for life-cycle cost analysis of Federal energy

projects.

Included in the three-volume set for Federal life-cycle cost analysis are the following:

(1) Life-Cvcle Costing Manual for the Federal Energy Management Program . National Institute of

Standards and Technology, Handbook 135 (1987). (Under Revision)

The manual is a guide to understanding life-cycle costing and related methods of economic analysis

as they are applied to Federal decisions. It describes the required procedures and assumptions,

defines and explains how to apply and interpret economic performance measures, gives examples of

Federal decision problems and their solutions, explains how to use the energy price indices and

discount factors which are updated annually in the supplement, and provides worksheets and other

computational aids and instructions for calculating the required measures.

(2) Energy Prices and Discount Factors for Life-Cvcle Cost Analysis . National Institute of Standards

and Technology, NISTIR 85-3273 (updated annually).

This report, which is updated annually, gives the energy price and discount factor multipliers needed

to estimate the present value of energy and other future costs. The data are based on energy price

projections developed by the Energy Information Administration of the U.S. Department of Energy.

Request the latest edition when ordering.

(3) NIST "Building Life Cycle Cost" (BLCC) Computer Program (version 4.1), National Institute of Standards and Technology, NISTIR 4481 (May 1993).

v
The NIST BLCC program (version 4. 1) supersedes and incorporates both the Federal Buildings LifeCycle Cost (FBLCC) and National Bureau of Standards Life-Cycle Cost (NBSLCC) programs. NIST

BLCC is designed to run on IBM PC and compatible microcomputers with approximately 512 K of

random access memory (RAM). It can be used to calculate the LCC of capital investments in buildings and building systems which are intended to reduce future operating, maintenance, and

energy costs. BLCC computes the LCC for each alternative, compares alternatives in order to determine which has the lowest LCC, performs cash flow analyses, and then computes the net savings, savings-to-investment ratio (SIR), and adjusted internal rate of return (AIRR) over the

designated study period. BLCC can be used to perform economic analysis of Federal and of private sector projects. BLCC (version 4.1) uses the 1994 energy price data in NISTIR 85-3273-8. BLCC

in its application to Federal energy conservation and renewable energy projects is consistent with

NIST Handbook 135 (see #1 above). In its application to non-energy projects, BLCC is consistent

with OMB Circular A-94. In its application to private-sector and non-Federal public-sector projects,

BLCC is consistent with ASTM standards for building economics. BLCC is integrated with the DOE

ASEAM computer program which performs energy conservation analysis.

Included on the BLCC disk is a stand-alone program called DISCOUNT (version 3.3) which can

calculate present value, future value, and annual value factors for any discount rate and study period.

DISCOUNT can access the DOE energy price projections included on the BLCC disk to compute

the UPV* factors needed for Federal LCC analyses of energy projects, consistent with the factors

included in this report.

The three-volume set can also be used to perform economic evaluations of Federal building projects

which are not primarily for conserving energy or providing renewable energy but which have an energy cost component. NIST Handbook 135 explains both applications.

The U.S. Department of Energy was directed by legislation and executive order to make available

to the private sector the methods, procedures, and related aids developed for Federal use. In response to this directive, the National Institute of Standards and Technology, under sponsorship of

the U.S. Department of Energy, published a life-cycle costing book for use by the private sector

entitled Comprehensive Guide for Least-Cost Energy Decisions . NBS SP 709 (January 1987). The

private sector guide is supported by the data provided here, as well as by the BLCC computer

program. The BLCC program (version 4.1) supersedes the NBSLCC program which is documented

in SP 709. BLCC provides LCC computational support for private sector projects as well as for

Federal projects.

To order any of the printed publications contact:

Advanced Sciences, Inc. 2000 North 15th Street Suite 407

Arlington, VA 22201

Telephone (703) 243-4900

Please request the publications by name and number.

vi
To order BLCC for analyses of Federal buildings, contact the above address. Other users may order

BLCC from one of the following:

PC Software Interest Group

1030D E. Duane Ave.

Sunnyvale, CA 94086

(408) 730-9291

MTS Software

5 Oak Court

Saint Charles, MO 63302

(314) 441-1022

Energy Information Services

P.O. Box 381

St. Johnsbury, VT 05819-0381

(802) 748-5148

Workshops on the life-cycle costing method and energy analysis are conducted at locations around

the country each year. The workshops include training and software for both BLCC and an energy

analysis computer program called "A Simplified Energy Analysis Method" (ASEAM). A schedule

of workshops can be obtained from the Office of Applied Economics, National Institute of Standards

and Technology, Building 226, Room B226, Gaithersburg, MD 20899, Telephone (301) 975-6132.

Two video training films, "Introduction to Life-Cycle Costing" and "Uncertainty and Risk," are also

available. These are two in a series of films on "Least-Cost Energy Decisions for Buildings."

Additional video training films in the series are in preparation. The video films and companion

workbooks can be ordered from Video Transfer, Inc., 5709-B Arundel Avenue, Rockville, MD

20852, Tel (301) 881-0270.

Further information on the Federal Energy Management Program can be obtained from the Federal

Energy Management Program Staff, Office of the Assistant Secretary for Conservation and

Renewable Energy, U.S. Department of Energy. Please direct communication to: FEMP, CE 10.1,

U.S. Department of Energy, 1000 Independence Avenue, SW, Washington, DC 20585.

vii
ABSTRACT

This is the 1994 annual edition of energy prices and discount factors for performing life-cycle cost analyses of energy conservation and renewable energy projects. It supports the Federal life-cycle

costing methodology by updating the energy price projections and discount factors that are described,

explained, and illustrated in NIST Handbook 135 (HB 135). It supports private-sector life-cycle cost analysis by updating the energy price indices that are described, explained, and illustrated in NBS

Special Publication 709 (SP 709). It also supports the Energy Conservation Mandatory Performance

Standards for New Federal Residential Buildings (10 CFR 435) by providing a table of factors for

updating appliance label values.
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

The author wishes to thank Mr. K. Dean DeVine of the Federal Energy Management Program of

the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) for his continued support and direction of this work.

Appreciation is extended to Mr. Mark E. Rodekohr, Director, and Ms. Mary Joyce, Economist, of

the Energy Demand and Integration Division of the DOE Energy Information Administration, for

providing the energy price projections upon which this report is based, and to Miss Jennifer E. Day

for her assistance in preparing this report for publication.

IX
CONTENTS

Page

FOREWORD iii PREFACE v ABSTRACT viii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ix

LIST OF TABLES xi

ABBREVIATIONS xv

PART I: TABLES FOR FEDERAL LIFE-CYCLE COST ANALYSIS 1

A. Single Present Value and Uniform Present Value Discount Factors 1

B. Modified Uniform Present Value Discount Factors for Federal Use 5

C. Projected Average Fuel Price Indices and Escalation Rates for Federal Use 18

D. Factors for Updating Appliance Label Values 35

PART II: TABLES FOR PRIVATE SECTOR LIFE-CYCLE COST ANALYSIS 36

Projected Average Fuel Price Indices for Private Sector Use 36

x
LIST OF TABLES

Page

A-l. SPV factors for finding the present value of future single amounts (nonfuel) .... 3

A-2. UPV factors for finding the present value of future annually recurring amounts (nonfuel) 4

Ba-1. UPV* discount factors adjusted for fuel price escalation, by end-use sector and fuel

type. Discount Rate = 3.1% (FEMP, FY 1994). Census Region 1 (Connecticut,

Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania,

Rhode Island, Vermont) 8

Ba-2. UPV* discount factors adjusted for fuel price escalation, by end-use sector and fuel type. Discount Rate = 3.1% (FEMP, FY 1994). Census Region 2 (Illinois,

Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota,

Ohio, South Dakota, Wisconsin) 9

Ba-3. UPV* discount factors adjusted for fuel price escalation, by end-use sector and fuel

type. Discount Rate = 3.1% (FEMP, FY 1994). Census Region 3 (Alabama,

Arkansas, Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana,

Maryland, Mississippi, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee,

Texas, Virginia, West Virginia) 10

Ba-4. UPV* discount factors adjusted for fuel price escalation, by end-use sector and fuel type. Discount Rate = 3.1% (FEMP, FY 1994). Census Region 4 (Alaska,

Arizona, California, Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico,

Oregon, Utah, Washington, Wyoming) 11

Ba-5. UPV* discount factors adjusted for fuel price escalation, by end-use sector and fuel type. Discount Rate = 3.1% (FEMP, FY 1994). United States average 12

Bb-1. UPV* discount factors adjusted for fuel price escalation, by end-use sector and fuel type. Discount Rate = 4.0% (years 1-10) and 4.5% (years 11-30), (OMB Circular

A-94). Census Region 1 (Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New

Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont) 13

Bb-2. UPV* discount factors adjusted for fuel price escalation, by end-use sector and fuel type. Discount Rate = 4.0% (years 1-10) and 4.5% (years 11-30), (OMB Circular

A-94). Census Region 2 (Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota,

Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, South Dakota, Wisconsin) 14

xi
LIST OF TABLES (continued)

Page

Bb-3. UPV* discount factors adjusted for fuel price escalation, by end-use sector and fuel

type. Discount Rate = 4.0% (years 1-10) and 4.5% (years 11-30), (OMB Circular

A-94). Census Region 3 (Alabama, Arkansas, Delaware, District of Columbia,

Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Mississippi, North Carolina,

Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, West Virginia) 15

Bb-4. UPV* discount factors adjusted for fuel price escalation, by end-use sector and fuel

type. Discount Rate = 4.0% (years 1-10) and 4.5% (years 11-30), (OMB Circular

A-94). Census Region 4 (Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho,

Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Utah, Washington, Wyoming) 16

Bb-5. UPV* discount factors adjusted for fuel price escalation, by end-use sector and fuel type. Discount Rate = 4.0% (years 1-10) and 4.5% (years 11-30), (OMB Circular

A-94). United States average 17

Ca-1. Projected fuel price indices (excluding general inflation) by end-use sector and fuel type. Census Region 1 (Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New

Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont) 20

Ca-2. Projected fuel price indices (excluding general inflation) by end-use sector and fuel type. Census Region 2 (Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota,

Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, South Dakota, Wisconsin) 22

Ca-3. Projected fuel price indices (excluding general inflation) by end-use sector and fuel type. Census Region 3 (Alabama, Arkansas, Delaware, District of Columbia,

Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Mississippi, North Carolina,

Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, West Virginia) 24

Ca-4. Projected fuel price indices (excluding general inflation) by end-use sector and fuel type. Census Region 4 (Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho,

Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Utah, Washington, Wyoming) 26

Ca-5. Projected fuel price indices (excluding general inflation) by end-use sector and fuel type. United States average 28

Cb-1. Projected average fuel price escalation rates exclusive of general price inflation, by

end-use sector and fuel type (percentage change compounded annually). Census

Region 1 (Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New

York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont) 30

xii
LIST OF TABLES (continued)

Cb-2.

Cb-3.

Cb-4.

Cb-5.

D.

S-l.

S-2.

S-3.

Page

Projected average fuel price escalation rates exclusive of general price inflation, by

end-use sector and fuel type (percentage change compounded annually). Census

Region 2 (Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska,

North Dakota, Ohio, South Dakota, Wisconsin) 31

Projected average fuel price escalation rates exclusive of general price inflation, by

end-use sector and fuel type (percentage change compounded annually). Census

Region 3 (Alabama, Arkansas, Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia,

Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Mississippi, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South

Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, West Virginia) 32

Projected average fuel price escalation rates exclusive of general price inflation, by

end-use sector and fuel type (percentage change compounded annually). Census

Region 4 (Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Montana, Nevada,

New Mexico, Oregon, Utah, Washington, Wyoming) 33

Projected average fuel price escalation rates exclusive of general price inflation, by

end-use sector and fuel type (percentage change compounded annually). United

States average 34

Factors for updating appliance label values 35

Projected fuel price indices with assumed general price inflation rates of 3, 4, 5, and

6%, by end-use sector and fuel type. Census Region 1 (Connecticut, Maine,

Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode

Island, Vermont) 38

Projected fuel price indices with assumed general price inflation rates of 3, 4, 5, and

6%, by end-use sector and fuel type. Census Region 2 (Illinois, Indiana, Iowa,

Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, South Dakota,

Wisconsin) 40

Projected fuel price indices with assumed general price inflation rates of 3, 4, 5, and

6%, by end-use sector and fuel type. Census Region 3 (Alabama, Arkansas,

Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland,

Mississippi, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia,

West Virginia) 42

xiii
LIST OF TABLES (continued)

Page

S-4. Projected fuel price indices with assumed general price inflation rates of 3, 4, 5, and

6%, by end-use sector and fuel type. Census Region 4 (Alaska, Arizona, California,

Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Utah, Washington,

Wyoming) 44

S-5. Projected fuel price indices with assumed general price inflation rates of 3, 4, 5, and

6%, by end-use sector and fuel type. United States average 46

xiv
ABBREVIATIONS

COAL Steam Coal

DIST Distillate Oil

ELEC Electricity

FY Fiscal Year

GASLN - Gasoline

LCC Life-Cycle Cost

LPG Liquefied Petroleum Gas

N Number of Discount Periods (in Years)

NTGAS - Natural Gas

RESID Residual Oil

SPV Single Present Value (Factor)

UPV Uniform Present Value (Factor)

UPV* Modified Uniform Present Value (Factor)

xv

PART I: TABLES FOR FEDERAL LIFE-CYCLE COST

ANALYSIS

A. Single Present Value and Uniform Present Value Discount Factors

Table A-l presents the single present value (SPV) factors for finding the present value of future

nonfuel, nonannually recurring amounts, such as repair and replacement costs and salvage values.

The formula for finding the present value (P) of a future amount (F) is the following:

P = F x

1

(1 + d)N

= F x SPVN ,

where d

N

= discount rate, and = number of periods, such as years, until F occurs.

Table A-2 presents uniform present value (UPV) factors for finding the present value of future

nonfuel amounts recurring annually, such as routine maintenance costs. The formula for finding the

present value (P) of an annually recurring uniform amount (A) is the following:

P A x

(1 + - 1 d( 1 + d) N

= A x UPVN ,

where d = discount rate, and

N = number of periods, such as years, over which A recurs.

In Tables A-l and A-2 the factors are given for both the FEMP and the OMB Circular A-94 discount

rates. The factors based on the FEMP discount rate are for finding the present value of future

amounts associated with Federal energy conservation and renewable energy projects. The factors

based on the OMB discount rates are for finding the present value of future amounts associated with

most other Federal projects (except those specifically exempted from OMB Circular A-94). Both

the FEMP and the OMB discount rates used in these Tables are defined for Federal use to be "real"

rates exclusive of general price inflation. The factors are applied as multipliers to future amounts

which are stated in "constant" dollars, that is, exclusive of general price inflation.

Examples of How to Use the Factors:

SPV(FEMP): To compute the present value of a replacement cost expected to occur in the 8th year

for an energy efficient heating system, go to Table A-l, find the 3.1 % SPV factor for year 8 (0.78),

and multiply the factor by today’s replacement cost. "Today’s" replacement cost is the cost as of

the date of analysis.

1
SPV(OMB, Short-term): To compute the present value of a repair cost in the 5th year for a floor

covering (non-energy related), go to Table A-l, find the 4.0% SPV factor for year 5 (0.82), and

multiply the factor by today’s repair cost.

SPV(OMB, Long-term): To compute the present value of a repair cost in the 15th year for a floor

covering (non-energy related), go to Table A-l, find the 4.5% SPV factor for year 15 (0.52), and

multiply the factor by today’s repair cost.

UPV(FEMP): To compute the present value of an annually recurring maintenance cost for a renewable energy system over 20 years, go to Table A-2, find the 3.1% UPV factor for 20 years

(14.74), and multiply the factor by the annual maintenance cost stated in today’s dollars.

UPV(OMB, Short-term): To compute the present value of annually recurring costs of office cleaning over 10 years (for a project not primarily related to energy conservation), go to Table A-2, find the

4.0% UPV factor for 10 years (8.11), and multiply the factor by the annual cleaning cost stated in today’s dollars.

UPV(OMB, Long-term): To compute the present value of annually recurring costs of office cleaning over 25 years (for a project not primarily related to energy conservation), got to Table A-2, find the

4.5% UPV factor for 25 years (14.83), and multiply the factor by the annual cleaning cost stated in today’s dollars.

NOTE: The UPV factors are generally applied to costs which recur annually in substantially the same amount (in constant dollars), e.g., routine operating and maintenance costs. These costs usually occur over the service period of the building life. If there is a planning/design/construction

period before the service life begins, during which these annually costs do not occur, the appropriate

UPV factor for the service period is the difference between the UPV factor for the entire study

period and the UPV factor for the planning/design/construction period. For example, if the

planning/design/construction period is 3 years and the service period is 25 years, for a total study

period of 28 years, the appropriate UPV factor (from Table A-2, FEMP 3.1% discount rate) is 18.54 - 2.82 = 15.72.

For further explanation and illustration of how to use these factors, see NIST Handbook 135.

2
Table A-l SPV factors for finding the present value of

future single amounts (non-fuel).

Single Present Value (SPV) Factors

Year of

Occurrence

(t)

FEMP FY 1994

Discount rate

3.1%

OMB Discount Rates

Short term/b Long Te

4.0% 4.5%

1 0.97 0.96 0.96

2 0.94 0.92 0.92

3 0.91 0.89 0.88

4 0.89 0.85 0.84

5 0.86 0.82 0.80

6 0.83 0.79 0.77

7 0.81 0.76 0.73

8 0.78 0.73 0.70

9 0.76 0.70 0.67

10 0.74 0.68 0.64

11 0.71 0.62

12 0.69 0.59

13 0.67 0.56

14 0.65 0.54

15 0.63 0.52

16 0.61 0.49

17 0.60 0.47

18 0.58 0.45

19 0.56 0.43

20 0.54 0.41

21 0.53 0.40

22 0.51 0.38

23 0.50 0.36

24 0.48 0.35

25 0.47 0.33

26 0.45 0.32

27 0.44 0.30

28 0.43 0.29

29 0.41 0.28

30 0.40 0.27

/a OMB discount rates as of March 1993. OMB rates are expected to be

revised in February 1994.

/b Short-term discount rate based on OMB discount rate for 7-year

study period.

/c Long-term discount rate based on OMB discount rate for 30-year

study period.

3
Table A-2. UPV factors for finding the present value of

annually recurring uniform amounts (non-fuel).

Uniform Present Value (UPV) Factors

Year of

Occurrence

(t)

FEMP FY 1994

Discount rate

3.1%

OMB Discount Rates/a

Short term/b Long Term/i

4.0% 4.5%

1 0.97 0.96 0.96

2 1.91 1.89 1.87

3 2.82 2.78 2.75

4 3.71 3.63 3.59

5 4.57 4.45 4.39

6 5.40 5.24 5.16

7 6.21 6.00 5.89

8 6.99 6.73 6.60

9 7.75 7.44 7.27

10 8.49 8.11 7.91

11 9.20 8.53

12 9.89 9.12

13 10.57 9.68

14 11.22 10.22

15 11.85 10.74

16 12.47 11.23

17 13.06 11.71

18 13.64 12.16

19 14.20 12.59

20 14.74 13.01

21 15.27 13.40

22 15.78 13.78

23 16.27 14.15

24 16.75 14.50

25 17.22 14.83

26 17.67 15.15

27 18.11 15.45

28 18.54 15.74

29 18.95 16.02

30 19.35 16.29

/a OMB discount rates as of March 1993. OMB discount rates are expected

to be revised in February 1994.

/b Short-term discount rate based on OMB discount rate for 7-year

study period.

/c Long-term discount rate based on OMB discount rate for 30-year

study period.

4
B. Modified Uniform Present Value Discount Factors for Federal Use

(Based on the FEMP and OMB discount rates and DOE-projected rates of

change in energy prices, both of which exclude general price inflation)

This section presents "modified" uniform present value (UPV*) discount factors for the 4 Census

regions and for the United States. The factors are modified in the sense that they incorporate the

annual rate of energy price changes currently projected by DOE for the years 1994-2023. There are two sets of tables: the "Ba" tables present UPV* factors based on the FEMP discount rate (3.1%

real), and the "Bb" tables present UPV* factors based on two OMB discount rates (4.0% real for

short-term study periods of 1 to 10 years, 4.5% real for long-term study periods of 11 to 30 years).

The factors presented in the "Ba" tables, based on the FEMP discount rate, are for calculating the

present value of energy costs or savings accruing over 1 to 25 years and are to be used in life-cycle cost analyses of Federal energy conservation and renewable energy projects. Factors are reported

in the "Ba" tables for 30 years to accommodate a planning/design/construction period of up to 5

years. (See "Examples of How to Use UPV* Factors" below for instructions on use with

planning/design/construction periods.)

The factors presented in the "Bb" tables, based on the OMB discount rates, are for calculating the

present value of energy costs or savings accruing over 1 to 30 years and are to be used for life-cycle cost analysis of the energy component of Federal projects that are not primarily for conserving

energy or providing renewable energy.

Both sets of factors apply only to annual energy usage or savings that are the same each year over

the service period that recur in uniform amounts. Refer to NIST Handbook 135 for evaluating

annual energy amounts that vary in amount over time.

The UPV’ factors incorporate rates of change in energy prices computed from prices projected by

the Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the U.S. Department of Energy. Projections at the

national level to the year 2010 are reported in the Annual Energy Outlook 1993 (DOE/EIA0383(93)). Assumptions underlying the model used by EIA to project energy prices to the year 2010

are presented in Assumptions for the Annual Energy Outlook 1993 (DOE/EIA-0527(93)).

Projections of world oil prices are used by EIA to project prices for related fuels for years 2011 to 2023 and are documented in Oil Market Simulation User’s Manual (DOE/EIA-M028(91)).

The formula for finding the present value (P) of future energy costs or savings is the following:

N

P = A0 xT -4^ = Ao x UPV- , m (1 +d)‘

where A0

tN

base-year dollar cost of energy, i.e., the annual quantity of energy times its price

in today’s dollars;

counter used to designate each year, with t = l for the year 1994;

number of periods, e.g. years, over which energy costs or savings accrue;

5
1(1993 +0 = projected average fuel price index 1 given in Tables Ca-1 through Ca-5

for the year 1993 -ht and

d = discount rate.

Examples of How to Use UPV* Factors:

UPV*(FEMP discount rate, no planning/design/construction period): To compute the present value

of heating with distillate oil over 15 years for an energy-conserving design of a Federal office

building in New Mexico, go to Table B-4a, find the UPV* factor for commercial distillate for 15

years (13.60), and multiply the factor by the annual heating cost in today’s dollars. The cost in "today’s" dollars is the cost as of the date of analysis.

UPV’(FEMP discount rate, with planning/design/construction period): (1) Find the UPV* factor for

the combined lengths of the planning/design/construction period and the occupancy period (not to exceed 30 years), and (2) subtract from (1) the UPV’ factor for the planning/design/construction

period alone. The difference is the UPV* factor for the years over which energy costs or savings

accrue. For example, suppose an energy-conserving Federal office building in New York is being

designed. It is expected to have a planning/design/construction period of 5 years, after which it will

be occupied for at least 25 years. To compute the present value of natural gas costs over 25 years

of occupancy, go to Table B-la and find the UPV* factors for commercial natural gas for 5 years

(4.78) and for 30 years (24.69). The difference (19.91) is the UPV* factor for natural gas costs over 25 years, beginning 5 years hence. Multiply 19.91 by the annual natural gas cost in today’s dollars

to calculate the present value of natural gas costs over the study period.

UPV*(OMB discount rates): To compute the present value of electricity costs over 30 years

associated with the occupancy of a Federal office building in Ohio (where energy conservation is not

a specific consideration in the LCC analysis), go to Table B-2b, find the UPV* factor for commercial

electricity for 30 years (15.64), and multiply by the annual electricity cost in today’s dollars.

NOTE: Because the discount rate used to calculate the Bb tables (OMB discount rate) is different

for years 1-10 (4.0%) than for years 11-30 (4.5%), these factors cannot be used with a planning/design/construction period as shown above for the Ba tables (FEMP discount rate). Use

the BLCC or DISCOUNT computer program for this purpose. For further explanation of the use of UPV’ factors, see NIST Handbook 135.

The data in the tables which follow are reported for the 4 Census regions and the U.S. average.

Figure B-l presents a map showing the states corresponding to the 4 Census regions. The Census

regions do not include American Samoa, Canal Zone, Guam, Puerto Rico, Trust Territory of the

Pacific Islands, or the Virgin Islands. Analysts of Federal projects in these areas should use data

which are "reasonable under the circumstances," and may refer to the tables with U.S. average data

for guidance.

'For greater precision, the UPV* factors reported in the Ba and Bb tables were computed using

the unrounded form of the indices given in Tables Ca-1 through Ca-5.

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a/

UPV*

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26-30

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a

planning/construction

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to 5

years.

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p. 6

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instructions

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i M O N Nl/1 in ro O vt >o in VO O' e— r— o ro r- «- ro

C_) i O'O'CO'Oinro^— 0'^->^ co in «- ro O in o in e- >0 r— in O vj- O' ro KP

—J i o mn^in'O'ONcoO'O' o *- CM CM ro v* in in vO >o rd n! rd cd co c>

LU l r— t— *— *— *— t—

(>'0»->J'0C0O0'0'^N>tO'rO^m’-N(\J'0Or-T-»-0"0rsJC0f\lin 0‘0‘0‘C0N'0in>fM(MT-oc0KinM»-c0'0f0OC0inMC0inN(0inr- >o «-

O' O' O «- CM vtlA'OSCOOO

'OooO'cginryjconj'OcocO'OroONtscocO'OM'OO'OO'NtnNopsjrsj 0'00N'0in>trMr-0'SinM»-c0'6r0OS^r-Sf0Oin«-N(\jc0Ki00

^in'ONNcoooT-t-rsJi

N»-4inin>jnjO'0«->t'0'0inm0‘'tNC0CQin 0'C>coK'Oin>tfO»-ocO'6'J(\JONini\JO'<3K) T- iOCOOONn| O'M 0'0(\jo>tO'0»-K

^in'ONCOOO' 0 »-f\JI

'00'OONN'ON'OMCO»-fVJt- 0'inOin'tin>t . - - _ 0'0'CQNinM(NJoK*inf\iO''OroO"0(McomOinoinoinO'fOroN h- «- cm

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3

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r-(\jn'jin'OScooo*-f\jn^in'OS-cooor-(\jn'tin'OScooo «— «— «— «— «— e— «— *— *— %— fM CM CM <\J CM CM CM CM CM CM rO

10

a/

UPV*

factors

are

reported

for

years

26-30

to

accomodate

a

planning/construction

period

of

up

to 5

years.

(See

p. 6

for

instructions

on

use.)
f\iro>4-i/>'0r^co0'0*-c\iro>a, ir»'0r^co<>o«-f\if0'4, m'0r^cooo t-*-*— «—*— T-<\jf\jf\jf\jr\jrsjrsj(\jf\jr\jfo

&

»

O Z

CL. _l

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< <J

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O «- f\l vJUlONOOO'O'O'-NMM^in'O'OMOOOaOOf-NMM

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£

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Q. “ £

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in 'ONCOO'Or-r-N

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f\im>tin'OSCOOO'0 (Njnn'tin'0'OSoocoO'0'Or-»-roru

*— r-T-r-*— *-*—*-*—*— »-T-r\jr\j<\jf\jr\j

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<0 © <0 <0 <0 S SN VS r-NM'tin'OScooo»-(\jn^in'ONcoO'Or-f\jfo>jir\'OSeoO'0 r-»-r-t-f-*-«-r-r-«-CNjrJfM(MNNfNjrsjrsjrUK)

11

a/

UPV*

factors

are

reported

for

years

26-30

to

acconmodate

a

planning/construction

period

of

up

to 5

years.

(See

p. 6

for

instructions

on

use.)
Table

Ba-5.

UPV*

Discount

Factors

adjusted

for

fuel

price

escalation,

by

end-use

sector

and

fuel

type.

Discount

Rate

=

3.1%

(FEMP,

FY

1994)

do

SI5

§

I

Z 11 T- ro 3 4 5 6 7 8 o o i- no ro >4- in o 00 o o r- CVJ ro >4- in >o CO O' o rsj f\J fM CsJ f\J r\j f\J ro ro ro ro

I—O z i N- MNOOO O 00 in in co o O 00 ro o o T— O N- ro h- ro ro

o_ _J 1 O' o co n n in n rsj O' Is- >o >4* O >4“ O' 'O ro O o C\i O in R ro z < 11 o T- rvj ro >4* in 'OSCOO'O'O t— r\j ro ro >4“ in >0 >0 N CO CO o o o <_ ro ro ro < CD i (M ro ro ro ro ro

i o o ro >o O' o «— o N ro VO O' ro r- O oo >4" O' ro >o >4 >4

i o o o 00 N N >0 in ro ro o 00 N. in ro «- 00 >o ro co in ro O' vO ro O' vO CVJ oo o i o r— ro ro >4 in -O N CO O o o T- ro ro >4* >4* in vO n! r- oo O' O' O ro ro ro

CJ 1 r” t- e— ro ro ro ro ro ro

</> i «_ o O' O O'

00 00 O' >o f\J s ro in N -o to O' >4- O' ro o ro >o N- co oo in K < i o O O' O' O' o o ro ro ro ro ro O O O' O' co >0 in >4 ro ro — • ro ro ro >4- in 'O oo O' o e- ro ro >4* in >o oo O' o o V- ro ro >4 in so 00 O'

_i< z i """ <- ro ro ro ro ro ro ro ro ro ro ro

O' o i OOCO'O in in nO 00 o ro ro ro o 00 >0 ro o

3

«— in 00 o o O' 'O ro oo ro

h—

co

Z>

00

LU

i o o o o o o O' O' o o o o O O' O' O1 ^ CO N >0 >o in >4 ro O O' >o

l ro ro ro >4* in 'O N O' O «— ro ro ro >4- in NO N- CO O' o r— ro ro O in "O O N CO QZ

or i ro ro ro ro ro ro ro ro ro ro

*“*

i ro u-i I'- O' o ro ro >4- ro 00 >4 00 ro in >0 in RS ro >4 in ro o >o O' ro ro ro —

CO

i o O 00 N 'O in >4- ro ro O' 00 VO in ro O' ro O' >0 ro o vO ro O' in

i o «

ro ro 4- in vO K CO O' o o r- ro ro *4 in in >0 Is- co oo O' o «_ ro ro ro >4 o l T- T” *“ ” ro ro ro ro ro ro ro

• ro ro ro

co K- o in 00 o O' N- ro b- 00 00 vO ro in oo oo >4 o >4 N* O' O' r^ in ^ O CJ • o o >0 >4" ro OO >0 >4 oo in ro O' in ro O' in O in o in o in o >4

_J i o ro ro >4- in vO N- N- 00 O' o o T- ro ro ro >4 >4- in in vO co co O' O' o O LU i *— *— T— «— ro ro

i co in o n- o ro ro o o o ro >4 in in >4 CO m s- O r— ro «— O' in >o O'

—1 l O' O' O CO N N 'O in >4 ro O' r^- in ro O' >o >4 o> >o m o o m O VO ro O' o • o T— ro ro ^ in « S eo o o o ro ro >4 >4 in >0 N S CO O' o o r- ro ro ro ro

CJ l r” ro ro ro ro ro ro ro

t/> i O' N» ro N- >4 00 T“ >4 r- o O N- ro >o oo oo oo >4 vO in N- O' o o o <CD

*—

i O' O' O' co 00 N- vO 'O in >4 >4 ro ro o O' in ro O' N- in ro o >4 O' >o ro

i O ro ro ”•4 in vO S- co o o ro ro ro >4 in >0 N- N- 00 O' o ro ro ro >4 in z l ro ro ro ro ro ro ro ro < o i O O' >4 ro o O 00 oo co in ro 00 R

>4 'O in ro oo RvO O' o o co

i O O' O' O' O' O' co oo oo oo 00 oo -o <o in >4 ro ro o a) in ro ro o co in

CJ IS) oc LU • «

«

ro ro >4 in 'O oo o o t— ro ro >4 in O co O' o r

T ro ro >4 in vO >o 1^

LU cm 1 ro ro ro ro ro ro ro ro ro ro S i ro in oo O' ro >4 in in ro o o o >4 O' 00 NO ro 'O 00 O' co >o ro vO o o CJ Ki/>

l O' O' co >o vO in >4 ro ro o oo r- in ro *- O' N- in ro O' vO ro o ro 'O ro

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• O' O' >o O o «- ro ro o in oo O' co in o ^4 vO NO vO ro O' >4 00 o «_ o

CJ l O' co in ro r-COOlOON ro O' in ro oo ro CO ro CO ro N >0 o >4 00

—j • o ro ro •o in vO NO oo O' O' o o T- ro ro ro ro v4 S4 in in 'O vO co 00 oo

LU i *— *- *—

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>o O o o o r- ro R

O' oo >o ro co ro vO 00 O' O' oo in ro bw ro in < i o o O >0 in >4 ro ro o O' in ro O' >o >4 oo in ro O' NO ro O' 'O ro

>— i o ro ro >4 in vO N- 00 O' o ro ro >4 in in oo oo co O' o o ro ro ro >4 z • ro ro ro ro ro ro ro

• >o oo o oo vO ro oo ro 00 o T~ O CO in o in oo N- >4 O' ro >4 >4 ro O' >4 oo o

CD

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l O' oo r- o in >4 ro «— O' oo O >4 O' >4 00 in ro oo in N» ro oo >4 O' in o

< i o ro ro >4 in >o rd r- oo O' O ro ro >4 >4 in NO nO 00 00 O' O' o o T— ro —

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>4 ro o 'O ro v4 ro >o o ro

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(St

(S) • o r— ro ro v4 in 'O 00 O' Cb o w— ro ro ro S4 in in vO oo O' O' o »

«

ro ro

LU Q 1 T_ ro ro ro ro ro

N- ^ ro O O ro ro O' in oo O' eg

ro O' 'O in o ro >4

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r— r- *— r— ro ro ro r\i ro ro ro ro ro ro ro

12

a/

UPV*

factors

are

reported

for

years

26-30

to

accommodate

a

planning/construction

period

of

up

to 5

years.

(See

p. 6

for

instructions

on

use.)
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F—

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r\j ro >1- in VO N- co <> c> o T

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CLF—

CD i

• (M in >0 >3- r— vO o g: “ O' o O' VO (\J O' o O' r*'- CM vO O' o O' ro CO CM n3

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1—

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_J< z • T— *— CM CM CM CM

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r\j ro >3- in >o co o’ o o «

CM ro ro >3 in o vO N- CO co O' o o T «

CM CM Q

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Od 1 r” r” *“ *“ *” CM CM CM CM CM CM

1 NO o o O NO ro co ro o CO >3- in >3- fM CO ro CM O' >3- CO *4- O' ro in O in

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1 O' CO co >o in >3- oj «- O' ro O N- >3" N- ^3* o NO (M N- CM N- vO o >3 CO

1 o «- CM ro >3“ in vO N- r- oo O' O O l\J CM ro >3- >3 in in NO NO N* N- co co O' O' O' o 1 *“ T— r~

1 N» o O in o o O vO O' o >3- O VD >! O' CM 4- ro ro ro CM O in o ro >3 in

CJ 1 O' CO 'O >3- ro t- co in ro n- m O in O >o vO in o >3- co CM in O' ro NO O' CM

_l 1 o r- cm ro in NO NO N CO co O' O' o r- r- CM CM ro ro >3- •4* >3 in in in NO nO vo

ID 1 '

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F— l o <- CM ro >3 in 'O N- 00 00 O' o o T- CM CM ro >3 >3 in m sO r^ N. 00 00 O' O' o o z i T— *“ CM CM

_j< Q i O' 'O O >3- o ro in in >3 in in CM co ro VO vO ro co CM >3 >3 FC o nO o ro ^3

i O' O' O' 00 >o 'O in >3 ro O' N- in ro o oo in CM o >0 CM O in ro 00 >3 O' <3 o CO

CL LD l o TCM ro n3 in vo r^ CO O O' o tCM ro ro >3 in in O co o o o o T X— CM

LD

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CJ (—

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l O' co co >0 in >3 CM r- O Is- CM o N* >3 o ro O' in nO >0 >0 in O ro

l o T- CM ro >3 in >o oo O' O O CM CM ro ro >3 in in VO N- oo co oo <> <> o • r— T—

l in in ro o co >3 N- in O' co ro 'O eo n 'O cm o CM ro CM O N- ro h'- CJ

LD_l

1 O' co N- in ro o >3 >0 cm >0 o ^3 00 CM -o o ro >o O CM in N. o CM

1 o CM ro >3- in in >o co 00 O^ O' o o CM CM CM ro ro ro ^3 >3 v3 in in

LD i »

»»*»'*— *^

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i o o CO N- 'O >3 ro *- 0 n- ro o ro o >0 CM oo *3 O *3 O in o >3 O ro co CM 'O

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• in vO >3 O *3 in in ro O' ro O vO O' o o r- ro >o >3 o ro >3 >3 ro o in O' CM

• O' CO N vO 3 CM o oo in ro 00 v3 O N- ro oo >3 O' >3 O' >3 00 ro T— in o CM in O'

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(/> •—« i O r- CM ro >3 in 'O N* N- 00 <> <> o «

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14

/a

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rates

as

of

March

1993.

0MB

discount

rates

are

expected

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be

revised

in

February

1994.
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15

/a

OHB

discount

rates

as

of

March

1993.

0MB

discount

rates

are

expected

to

be

revised

in

February

1994.
Table

Bb-4.

UPV*

Discount

Factors

adjusted

for

fuel

price

escalation,

by

end-use

sector

and

fuel

type.

Discount

Rate

=

4.0%

(years

1-10)

and

4.5%

(years

11-30),

(OMB

Circular

A-94/a)

Census

Region

4

(Alaska,

Arizona,

California,

Colorado,

Hawaii,

Idaho,

Montana,

Nevada,

New

Mexico,

Oregon,

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Wyoming)

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16

/a

OMB

discount

rates

as

of

March

1993.

OMB

discount

rates

are

expected

to

be

revised

in

February

1994.
Table

Bb-5.

UPV*

Discount

Factors

adjusted

for

fuel

price

escalation,

by

end-use

sector

and

fuel

type.

Discount

Rate

=

4.0%

(years

1-10)

and

4.5%

(years

11-30),

(OMB

Circular

A-94/a)

£

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3

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17

/a

OMB

discount

rates

as

of

March

1993.

OMB

discount

rates

are

expected

to

be

revised

in

February

1994.
C. Projected Average Fuel Price Indices and Escalation Rates for Federal Use

(Indices and escalation rates exclude general price inflation)

Table C. "Regional and U.S. average base-year fuel prices by end-use sector and major fuel," has

been discontinued. Use your actual energy prices as of the date the analysis is performed as the

starting point for estimating present value energy costs.

Tables Ca-1 through Ca-5 present projected average fuel price indices for the 4 Census regions and

for the United States. These are multipliers which when applied to today’s prices provide estimates

of the corresponding future-year prices in constant base-year dollars (beginning of year 1994). The

indices reflect end-of-year prices. End-of-year indices are needed because energy prices are discounted from the end of the year in calculating the UPV* factors. Constant dollar prices are needed when discounting is performed with a real discount rate (i.e., one which does not include

general price inflation).

Example of How to Use the Indices:

To estimate the price of industrial steam coal at the end of year 2005 in Connecticut, go to Table

Ca-1, find the year 2005 index for industrial steam coal (1.20), and multiply by the price for

industrial steam coal in Connecticut at the beginning of 1994.

For further explanation of how to use these tables, see NIST Handbook 135.

Tables Cb-1 through Cb-5 present the projected average fuel price escalation rates (percentage

change compounded annually) for seven selected periods from 1993 to 2023 for the 4 Census regions

and for the United States. Note that these are "real" rates exclusive of general price inflation. Their use results in prices expressed in constant dollars.

The average fuel escalation rates consolidate the information provided by the indices in the Ca tables so that trends in projected price changes can be seen at a glance. They are provided primarily to accommodate those who use computer programs which require escalation rates as inputs.

Unless there is a compelling reason to use escalation rates, it is recommended that you use the

indices in the Ca tables when you need estimates of future-year energy prices, since the indices

include year-to-year information rather than averages over a number of years.

18
Example of How to Use the Escalation Rates:

To estimate the price of residential distillate at the end of 1998 (p98) in Wyoming using the escalation

rates, go to Table Cb-4 and find the 1993-1995 and 1995-2000 escalation rates for residential

distillate (0.3% for two years and 1.7% for three years, respectively). Enter these values and the

price of residential distillate in Wyoming at the end of 1993 (p93) 2 into the following formula. Then

solve for the 1998 energy price (stated in end-of-year 1993 dollars):

p9i = p93 x (1 + erf' x (1 + erf

1

= p93 x (1 + 0.003)2 x (1 + 0.017)3

= p93 x 1.0582

where py = Price at end of year y;

e; = Annual compound escalation rate for period i from the Cb tables (in decimal form);

and

kj = Number of years over which escalation rate e; occurs.

The data in the tables which follow are reported for the 4 Census regions and the U.S. average.

Figure B-l presents a map showing the states corresponding to the 4 Census regions. The Census

regions do not include American Samoa, Canal Zone, Guam, Puerto Rico, Trust Territory of the

Pacific Islands, or the Virgin Islands. Analysts of Federal projects in these areas should use data

which are "reasonable under the circumstances," and may refer to the tables with U.S. average data

for guidance.

2 The price at the end of year 1993 is the same as the price at the beginning of 1994. End-ofyear 1993 is used here to maintain consistent notation.

19
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Projected

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1.02

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O 1 10

h cnv0 c** rn rn 1 in

tH *H rH rH tH fH 11 fH O 00 10 CN 10 O' 1 rn rn vO cn CN 1 LO

tH fH rH «H tH fH !1 rH

O' VO CN O' rS1 r- i o o cn vo vo rn CN 1 LO

tH »H rH rH tH fH ! fH * 1 3 -rl •H •rH c c

*3 1 Cn o O rH

O rH 0 -H 3 1 >" CO >1 -rH CO >. -H CD *H rH 3 1 T3 H 4J 0) 0) P 0) O (0 rH HJ QJ O ca »H •P 0 1 C (0 -rl V U rH -H 4J O ca rH -H HJ o 0J ca cn c 1 (0 •H 0 flJ It U HH 0 ia u ca rH 0 hj ca 3 1 4J -H rH rH •rl tH rH flJ rH u •rl *rH rH ffl rH u p o 1 iH C U rH CtJ U ilH 3 •a U U rH 3 ca 0 1 0 0) V -rl U U 0) -rH TJ Vh E 0 0-H'O iH E a u 1 4-) T3 U O 3 0) O HJ -rl 3 <a CD O HJ -H 3 ca m o 1 u •rH Q) m O HJ e 0) cn m HJ 0) 3 0) CO CO HJ 0) C HJ 1 0) CO rH -H On C0 g rH-H (|| ca HJ 3 H H 0) rn HJ ca o i cn 0) W Q J Z 0 U Q 05 z W C W Q 05 z cn P X i 05 U M e25

Oil

Price

Assumption
00 1 O' o CM r- in

m O' CM vO 00 CO ^ i VO

O 1 o CM rH roO CO in ro rH o ci

m cm CN 1 O 1 • • • • • CM 11 H rH rH rH rH rH rH rH H H H H rH 11 rH i O' CM VO O' CM <H n CM O' O CM rH CM 1 m O 1 o CM rH CM o n in ro rH o n in cm CM 1 O 1 • • • • • | • CM 11 «H rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH H H H H rH 11 rH

VO 1 O' o ** CO

n co o>n rH O' oo in o' rH 1 o O 1 o CM rH CM O CM ^ CO rH OCMvf<JH CM 1 O 1 • • • • • CM 11 rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH 11 rH i

inOO

CM

O' 00 O i—I m vo

rH CM

n id inh o ON^nn o<m

m

m vo

O CM

M1 H

n 1 I o' r- cm in CO ^ CM O' O O' O CM O M1 00 1 o 1 O <H rH CM O CM if CM H O CM ^ M1 H rH c5 1 o • • 1 CM 1 H rH rH H H H H H rH rH rH rH rH rH rH po 1 1 c

CQ 1 m 1 O' VO rH

n

n ci o c- O' 00 CM

Od vO 1 o 1 O rH rH CM O CM M* Cl O O CM M1 ci H rH

u 1 o • • o 1 CM 1 rH rH rH rH H H H H H rH rH rH rH rH rH 0 ••Sl v

to 5 1 CM 1 O' o O'

n

h io

n o' 00 O' VO CM cn in

Vin3 111 O

CM 1 O rH rH 1 • • . 1 rH rH rH

rH• rH

O CM CO CM

O

HHHHH

O rH

mn rH

rH rH rH rH rH

rH

rH T3 s: S c> 1 rH 1 00 CM co vO n r~ rH cn o> VO H VO rH m V 1 o 1 O rH O rH O rH n rH o O rH m CM rH rH

<3 00 1 o 1 . . . • • £1 £

.2 •f: 11 CN 1 rH rH rH 1 rH

H

H

H rH

H rH rH rH rH rH rH

to

<D 1 o 1 O'-

O vO

n CM Vf vO in O' COOlOrlH rH

Bo

•vO 11 oo ! rH

O rH CM rH o O rH CM CM rH rH *&

ft -s; 8 11 CM I rH rH rH 1 rH

H

H

HH

H rH rH rH rH rH rH c 1*. a (U c -2 s 1 O' l co r' <j o rH O H CM 00 'O1 o o r- o' 00

II

O'

O' 1 O' 1 O o o rH

O rH CM <H

O

O rH CM rHO o

13ts Ua

r;o

©0 £

133 1111

O'rH

00 l . . . t rH rH rH 1 in in eg

rH

CD hhhhh H t'* vO 0^ Is

rH rH rH rH rH

ro in ro

rH

vO on

on c O

lied

u-ft

(D 111

O'

O'rH ! °°° 1 HH H

O

rH

O

O rH o O

rH rH r-H rH rH

O o rH rH o

rH rH rH rH rH

O

rH c

'-o

d •n*8

<L> ><

>•

<4- 11 r- 11 <f

O

Q VO rH *3* »H t""* 1

/")

n vf

h o in “3X

<3

SJ 1 01 T3 o

©0 111

O'O'

rH ! °°° I rH rH H o

rH

O

O rH o O

rH rH

HH

H

O

O rH rH o

rH rH rH rH rH

O

rH

w <3

,«s» £ Cw cc 11 VO 1I co cn cr*

O CM CD in <J

H CM 00 «f ro

Sfi W

T3

<D ‘5b 11 O'

O' 1 O

O Ok o• o o o o o O o o o o o

-3 <3 42

4—» o CO 11 rH rH rH o rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH c Hi 1

<ucr 1 m • CM rH oo ro

O rH CD vj CM

H

H ID CD CM CM £ 11 O'

O' 1 O

O Ok • • • o o o o o o o o o o o O

t- 1 rH 1 rH rH

Q rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH

a RJ 11 1 rH

O Ok CMO

O

m CM rH o o m

m .-h rH 1

•2

5b

<u 11 O'

O'

O

O 5k

O o o o o o o o o o o o 1 rH rH rH Q rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH T3w

ft:to 25 1 3 o a -c: o£ 3 1 11

rH

<D0 11 rH 1 -H

rH

-H

rH

••H d> c c

Pn 1 o O rH

O rH

O -rl 1 i >i to >1 -h m >M -H 10 *r| rH

x> 1 HU 01 <TJ P 0) o <0 rH 4-1 0)

O oj rH P o • 1 c 1 (fl r| +J o rH -rH +J OH) rH -rH 4-1 O It) id to 1 Id i h o m (0 U <0 rH 0 Id O m rH 0 4-> id 1 1 uhh r-H •H *H rH (Tj rH U •H *H H dJ rH U p o p 1 c UH (0 O P rH 3 <0 U U rH 3 (d 0 U 1 0 1 Q) 4J -rl Vh U +J r( x) u £ 4J P -rl x> U e d< P

4> P 1 T3

O -P 3 fll

U

U -H 3 ij 10

U

U 3 fi to o 1 o I rl Q) CO o -P g 01 III 10 U 11 3 d) 01 ID 4-> 0) C 4-1 XI 1 01 I (0 rH H CU (0 g rH -rH Q) Ifl +J T3 rH -rl d) Id 4-1 id 0

CO V) 1 OIWQJ 2 0 W

Q CO 2 1/5

CWQ CC 2 W P X

H 1 1 OS o M frH

innnm

26

Projected

world

oil

price

indices

(1993 =

1.00)

Oil

Price

Assumption

1.02

1.04

1.07

1.09

1.12

1.15

1.20

1.24

1.29
Census

Region 4

(Alaska,

Arizona,

California,

Colorado,

Hawaii,

Idaho,

Montana,

Nevada,

New

Mexico,

Oregon,

Utah,

Washington,

Wyoming) &33C

Cducs(/) V</>

CDO

CL os

ULOu. CU

m i CN so in Os CM tH SO ro Os CM 1 tH cn CM in o in o ro O 1 • • • • CM 11 rH rH rH rH tH rH CM rH tH

CM 1 rH LD in t*» rHO CM

O p- CM 1 «H m CM in O in o r~ ro O 1 • • • • CM 11 rH tH tH rH rH tH CM rH tH

tH 1 tH <3- in tH OS Os O' in (N 1 rH CO CM m o <3* Os sO rn O 1 • • • • CN 11 tH tH rH tH rH rH rH tH tH O 1 tH CM rH CO SO 'S’ ro

CN 1 tH CO CM in o ** Os sO ro O 1 • • • • CN 11 tH tH rH rH tH tH rH tH tH

cr> i tH CO

m o rH r» CM rH CM

tH 1 tH rn CN in o ^ OS SO ro O 1 • • • • CM 11 tH tH tH rH tH tH rH rH tH

CO 1 o CN ro 00 tH sO os CO o rH 1 tH rn CN <3* o 't oo in ro O 1 • • • CM 11 tH tH tH tH rH tH tH tH rH

r* l o tH CO SO rH in so in CO tH l tH CO CN •S’ o oo m CM O 1 • • • CN 11 tH rH tH tH rH rH rH tH tH

sO 1 o tH CN tH ro cm

tH 1 tH ro CN o ^ co

m CM

O 1 • • • CN 11 tH tH tH tH tH tH rH rH tH

LD 1 os o CN CM tH co o o in f1 1 o rn CN o ^ oo in CM O 1 • • • CM 11 tH rH rH tH tH tH tH tH tH

•s- i OS OS rH o tH CN r-~ r- ro

tH 1 o CM CN o r~ CM O 1 • • • CM 11 tH tH tH tH rH tH tH rH rH m i OS OS tH tH tH m CN

tH 1 o CM CN CO o CM O 1 • • • CN 11 rH tH rH tH tH tH tH tH rH

CM 1 Os 00 in rH o rH CM

O tH I O CM CN n o r~ 'S CM O 1 • • • CN 11 tH tH rH tH tH tH tH tH rH

tH 1 CO r- o CO tH os 00 o 00

rH 1 o CN CN CO o CO SO «3" tH O 1 • • • CM 11 tH tH tH tH tH tH tH tH rH O 1 CO r~ o rH tH CO in t" riH 1 o CM CN CO o ro so ro tH O 1 • • • CM 11 tH tH tH tH tH tH rH tH rH

OS 1 00 Li! o rH tH in in O 1 o CM co O co so ro tH O 1 • • • CN 1l rH tH rH tH tH rH *H tH tH

00 in OS CM

m 1 tH

tH tH

O in 'S’ 1 00• tH tH CM CM <H tH 11 tH

ro p>

O SOO •S’ 1 00 tH rH o in 'S’ 1 r-• tH tH CM CM rH tH 11 tH

ro SO SO rH 00 CM 1 sO tH o o 'S’ 1 r*• rH tH CM CM rH rH 11 tH

CM in CM SO SO tH 1 tH 'S’ o OS 'S’ 'S’ 1

tH tH CM tH tH tH 11 tH

CM in 00 rH 'S’O 1 CM

tH OS OS 'S’ 'S’ 1

tH tH tH tH tH rH !1 tH

CM so CM 00 1 o

rH Os 00 'S’ ro 1 p»

tH tH rH tH tH rH 11 tH

tH ro o rH

O c- i 00

rH 'S’ Os 00 'S’ ro 1 co so

<D tH tH tH rH rH tH 1 O tH 1 TJ

rH CM SO (~~ 00 in l C sO

rH 00 r~ ro ro 1 -r| SO

tH tH tH 1 (1) tH i u

•H o tH CM CM sO 'S' 1 P O 'S’ rH 00 C~ ro ro 1 CLO SO • • tH tH tH tH tH tH 1 rH tH tH i •H0 II o o OS co in ro 1 CN

rH t" so ro ro 1 T3 ro so

rH (JS * tH tH «H tH tH tH 1 L OS rH i 0 «H o OS in ro ro tH 1 o

tH ro r- sO ro ro 1 T3

so

0) * pH tH tH rH rH tH 1 4J rH i u

OS 00 CM OS rHO 1 0 r- o ro in rn ro 1 0

1/1

tH tH tH tH tH • | tH 11 CLu ^M

OS r" 00 in cr* OS 1 so O ro SO in cm CM 1 in

tH tH rH «H «H rH !1

tH

OS sO in pH r- r- l O ro SO m cm CM 1 in

tH tH tH tH tH rH !1

tH

OS in tH os in so 1 o O cl sO 'S’ CM CM 1 in

tH tH rH rH tH tH 1 tH

H3au

J3£ i i

Q) 1i #H rH *H 0) 3 1i •H •H •H c c

fc 1 o o rH o rH 0 -rH >i CO >1 •H CO >i •H CO H rH V 11 rH p 0) id •p Q) o id rH -p (D o id f—i P 0 C 1i id •rH P o rH •rH P O <d *H H P O aJ id co

id i1 -H

u id id

U id rH 0 id

u id rH 0 •P id i1 M-l •rH rH rH •rH •H rH id rH o •rH -rH rH id rH u p o u \1 c U rH id U P rH 3 id u u rH 3 id 0 0 11 0) P •H u L P •rH T3 u E p -p •rH V lH E CL U

•p 11 V o P 3 0)

u •P

H 3 id CO

u •P •H 3 •d co 0 U 11 -rH ai 0) u P P 01 CO CO P ai 3 0) CO CO P (U C

a) ii co »H •rH CL id

g rH •rH 0) id HJ

V rH -rH 0) id P Id o w i a) pa a LJ z 0 pa a os z w c Pa a OS z w u X i 1 os u w H

27

Oil

Price

Assumption
Table

Ca-5.

Projected

fuel

price

indices

(excluding

general

inflation),

by

end-use

sector

and

fuel

type.

c/5 <uo

•5cr—-

<uo

’n0h

133

tint , c3

03 >

*4 <+lo

TOc

PJ

X T3

03O 2

03 'o’

4-

"ts 0- o

Tf

crs o\HoJ

<D >-

<*-Occc

<u CQ

00 1 ro CN 05 05 vO ro 05 LD vO CN VO LD O 1 o CN tH CN 05 ro sr ro CN o ro LD LD CN CN O 1 • • • • 0 CN 11 rH »—1 i—1

tH

O tH tH tH tH tH tH tH tH tH tH

r- i ro o 05 r- o vo -a* d* r~ o o VO ro O 1 O CN tH CN 05 ro ^ ro CN o ro LD LD CN CN O 1 • • • • 0 CN 11 tH tH tH tH o tH tH tH tH tH tH tH tH tH tH

M3 1 ro 05 VO p- r- r* CN ro CN r- r^* ro CN t—1 O 1 o tH tH CN 05 CN ro CN o CN LD CN CN O 1 • • • • 0 CN 11 tH tH tH tH o tH tH tH tH tH tH tH tH tH tH

lo i ro 'Vf vO t" LD 05 tH o vO LD ro «H

O o O 1 o tH tH CN 05 CN ro ro CN o CN LD CN CN O 1 • • • • 0 CN 11 tH tH tH rH o tH tH tH tH tH tH tH rH tH tH

<3- 1 ro VO ro LO ro 05 00 VO ro tH 00 r- CO O 1 o tH tH CN 05 CN ro CN tH o CN tH tH O 1 • • • • 0 CN 11 tH tH tH tH o tH tH tH tH tH tH tH tH tH tH

ro 1 CN LD CN CN 00 CN LD v0 VO CN 00 -a- vo vO O 1 o tH tH CN 05 CN ro CN tH o CN ro tH tH O 1 • • • • • CN 11 tH tH tH tH o tH tH tH tH tH tH tH tH tH tH

CN 1 CN ro tH 05 CO o CN ro VO LD o LD r- LD LD O 1 o tH i—1

tH 05 CN ro CN tH o CN ro ro tH tH

O 1 • • • • • CN 11 tH tH tH tH o tH tH tH tH tH tH tH tH tH tH

tH 1 CN tH 05 VO 00 05 LD VO o tH ro ro O 1 o tH o tH 05 tH CN tH tH o tH ro ro tH tH O 1 • • # • CN 11 rH tH tH tH o tH tH tH tH tH tH t—l

tH tH tH

O 1 CN 05 vO ro 00 ro ro LD ro ro LD LD CN tH O 1 o o O tH 05 tH CN tH tH O tH CN CN tH tH O 1 • • • • CN 11 tH tH tH tH o tH tH tH tH tH tH tH tH tH tH

cr> i tH o 00 o 00 CN tH CN o o o o 00

cr\ l o o o tH 05 tH tH tH tH o tH CN CN tH o

05 1 • • • • tH 11 tH rH tH tH o tH tH tH tH tH tH tH tH tH 1—1

00 1 o ID CN CO 00 05 00 tH LD LD 00 VO

05 1 o o o o 05 o tH o o o o tH •h o o

05 1 • • • • |H 11 tH tH tH tH o tH tH tH tH tH rH tH tH tH tH i o ro VO 00 o r* VO t—1

tH tH VO 05 1 o o o o 05 o tH o o o o tH tH O o

05 1 • • 0 • rH I1 tH tH tH tH o tH tH tH tH tH tH «H tH tH tH

50 1 o rH cn 00 CN r- ID ID o CN 00 00 in ro

05 1 o o cr» o 05 o o o o o o o o o o

05 1 • • 0 • tH 11 tH tH o tH o tH tH tH tH tH tH tH tH tH tH

LO 1 o o 00 ro 05 tH ID ro o tH vO r- tH

05 1 o o cr< o 05 o o o o o o o o o o

05 1 • • 0 • tH 11 tH tH o tH o tH tH tH tH tH tH tH tH tH tH i o o (Tt CN o o ro CN tH o o ro CN o

05 1 o o CTt o o o o O o o o o o o o

05 1 • • 0 • tH 11 tH tH o tH tH tH tH tH tH tH tH tH tH tH tH i i

QJ 1 rH iH 3 1 1 •H •H

U, 1 1 o o 1 1 >5 in >i V I1 rH 43 0) d 43 0) C 11 d •H 43 O ’—1

•r4 43

d l1 -r4

O (0

dU

d l1 +3 -H rH *H •r4 *H «H

U 11 c 14 >H

duU -H 0 11 QJ 43 -H u u 43 -H P 1 T3 U 43 3 Q) O 43 o 1 -r4 QJ in o 43 p d) ui

0) 1 0) HH ft (0 £ rH *H w 1 0) UQh) z 0 W Q 1 PS U

rH 0)

•r| c c

rH

O «H 0 -H

H in >1 -H in •H rH O <0 rH 43 0) o d rH 43 0 O d rH •r| 43 O d in in rH 0 d 0 d rH 0 43 a!

<TJ rH

O •r4 -H i—4

at rH

O 14 o 3 d U 14 rH 3 d 0

TO V4

p 43 43 •r4 XI 14 P 04 0

-H 3 3 in

U 43 •H 3 d in o

in 43 0) 3 <U in in 43 0)

C 43

(1) rtJ 43 T5 rH •r4 a) Hi 43 10 0

PS Z W c W

a OS z to 14 £ H H

28

Projected

world

oil

price

indices

(1993 =

1.00)

Oil

Price

Assumption

1.02

1.04

1.07

1.09

1.12

1.15

1.20

1.24

1.29

1.33

1.35

1.37

1.40

1.43

1.46
Table

Ca-5,

continued.

Projected

fuel

price

indices

(excluding

general

inflation),

by

end-use

sector

and

fuel

type.

&052s5

C/3 4>O5c

4>O

XJ

<u

OO

4)3

fJU

c3

<D

•ac

PJ

as

ON

i—

H

c9

<u <4-O

60

_c'cc

60

4) o CQ

4)

w

'o’

l_ CP

rn 1 VO r- OS r*

O in co VO CM 00 CN r- VO vo 1 CN 1 o CO CM in OS in Ch r- in rH *3" rH rH in <3- 1 O 1 • • • • CN 11 1—1

rH rH rH

O rH rH rH rH rH rH CN CN rH rH 11 CN 1 VO CO VO r- a> cm O «3* cm r~ 00 co ^ i CN 1 o CO CM in as <3 OS r- in rH f3> O rH in <3- 1 O 1 • • • • • | CN 11 rH rH rH rH o fH rH rH rH rH rH CN CN rH rH 11 rH | vO m •3* vO oo as r* CM cm r- CO OS CM CO 1 CN 1 O CO CM LO as •*r oo vo LO rH <3* o O in <3- 1 O 1 • • • • CN 11 rH i—1

rH 1 1 0 1 1 rH rH rH rH CN CN rH rH |1 O 1 if) CM vo CN vO r~ vo ^ o rH VO os in o rH | CN 1 o co CM in as •sr oo VO in rH ^ as o in -3> 1 O 1 • • • • CN 11 rH rH rH rH o rH rH rH rH rH i—1

rH CN rH rH |1

OS 1 Lf) i—1

vO o VO VO CN rH 00 rn in in rH 00

O 1 1 O CO CN in as ^ 00 VO rH as o <3* 1 O 1 • • • • CN 11 rH rH 1 1 rH o rH rH rH rH rH rH rH CN rH rH |1

00 1 LO rH if) i— VO in o oo vO o ^ rH r- VO as i •H 1 o co CN V? as oo in *3“ rH <3" as as CO 1 O 1 • • • CN 11 rH rH rH rH o i—1 «H rH i—1 rH rH rH t—1

rH 11

r- l LT) o IT) in vO <3" VO in «3-

O CO 00 CN r- l rH 1 o CO

m CN as rf (" in ^ rH ftf 00 as CO 1 O 1 • • • Q) CN 1 rH rH rH rH o rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH | U

.«H XI

VO 1 as CO vO co co CO CN

O CM 00 CM vO 1 c

rH 1 o CN CN as <3* r~ in <3* rH «3* 00 00 co 1 •*H O 1 • • • CN 1 rH rH rH t— Q) 1 o rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH | •P

in 1 <3- as rH VO CM fH o o 0> rH

O CO o i L

O

rH | O CM CN «3* as *3* c- in <3” o 00 00 <3* CO l quo O 1 • • • • CN 1 rH rH rH o rH rH «—1

rH rH rH rH rH rH rH 1 rH rH 1 i -rj0 ii ^ 1 00 as VO *H 00 r* 00 as o r** 00 00 CO l rH | o CN <N rn os *3* VO CO O *3* r- CO CO 1 TO CO O 1 • • • rH as

CN 1 rH rH rH o rH rH «—i

rH rH «H rH ! 1 rH rH I p as i i 0 rH 3

co i *3 r~ rn r- vo

O in in VO CO osm VO CN 1 <H 1 O CM CN CO os ftf* vo ^ CO o CO t- CO co 1 XI O 1 • • • 0) CN 11 rH rH rH rH o rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH 11 -PO

<D

-r-i CN 1 CO r- m LO vO a> cm CM n 00 oo o OS "3“ O 1 rH 1 o CN CN co as CO vO ^ CO o CO vO CO co 1 0 O 1 • • • u

CN 11 rH rH rH rH o rH rH rH rH i—1 rH rH t 1 rH rH 11 CL

rH | co VO CN co VO oo as

O CM oo r- vO in CN as i rH 1 o CN CN co as co m ^ CO O co vO vO CO CM 1 O 1 • • • CN 11 rH rH rH rH o rH rH rH i—1 rH rH rH rH rH rH |1 O 1 CO LO CN rH vo r~ r- r- rH C~ t" m o o 00 1 <H 1 O CN CM CO as co in m CO O CO vO vO m CN 1 O 1 • • • CN 11 rH rH rH «

1 o rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH |1

as i CO o VO in ro vo 00 r* in OS 00 00 VO 1 O 1 O CN CN co OS co m CO CM o co in in CN CN 1 O 1 • • • • 1 CM 11 <H rH rH rH 0 1 1 rH rH rH rH i—i

rH rH rH 11

00

00

vo

r~

r*

CM

r-o

roo

VO

VO

VO I I 1 I—I I 0) 1 rH rH rH 0) 3 1 *r| •r| p c c

fa i O

O rH

O rH 0 •H

tn >1 •r| tn >f •*H tn •*H rH

XI 1i i—i P Q) id -p 0)

O id

r—l P 4)

O a) rp 4J 0 C 1i a) •r| P o rH *r| •p O id >

i •H pi O id a) tn

IT) 11 -POm n)U id r—1 0 id

u id i—i 0 MJ id 11 -P •P rH rH •P •rl rH id i—i u •P •*H i—1 id rH u P O

L 11 C P rH id

UL rH 3 id P P rH 3 id 0 0 11 0) -P •*H p L P •rl XI p e P P •H XI p e CU P

-P 11 X!

U P 3 aiU

p •H 3 id tn

U

p •P 3 id tn 0 O 11 -P ai in O P p 0) tn tn V ai 3 ai tn tn •P ai c •P

ai i! tn rH •rl fa IT) £ 1—1

•rl 0) id -p XI rH •H 0) id -p id 0

to i1 Q) fa

Q tJ 2 0 faQ fa 2 w c wQ fa 2 to P X i1 fa u M H IIIIIIIIIIIIIIIII

29

Oil

Price

Assumption

1.50

1.54

1.56

1.57

1.60

1.62

1.64
by

end-use

sector

and

fuel

type,

(percentage

change

compounded

annually)

s

ce C

a

o cn i CN If) n in 1 7 7 00 cn •tf (-- <-l C' "? o i CN

CN 0 CN 1 • • • t • i • O+JOI

CN CN 1 o o o rH 0 0 1 rH OOCNOrl rH i

i rH

in o l CN in cn in <h r> c" oo *a< cn 10 o 00 o t cn h On l

• • • • • i • 0*10 1 CN CN 1

1 O o o rH O O H H H O o CN o rH rH i

i

i

rH

a

13uV

s©M

>

J3X

©

X

u

XIaH

Ji I

CO

0)o o in i CN If) cn in 1 7 7 00 cn 6 1 6 cn o i V cn

>H 0 rH 1 • • • • • i c • o*jo 1 CN CN 1 O o o rH 0 0 T rH rH o 0 2 2 rH rH i

i

•r| rH

atu

u o

fto

in o i CN cn rH r- O 0 rH | . • • . O 4-> O 1 CN CN 1 o rH rH o

I I

.h r- ro oo oo r'f^^tHO m

OHOIOH O H CMH CM rH

I

HHIM

•rl • O II CN

TJ n

r-1 <T* p cn O rH 3 —

O in I cn CN o cn If) cn 00 cn o 9 0 Lf) O 0 O 1 • • • • • 0 4-10 1 CN CN 1 0

1 rH rH CN 01 rH CN CN o o CN cn cn rH rH

T3

0)

4-> U

ai

r*

CM

s: .2 3 g ^ §

3

.<P tj

*4

Si

s: a

s: £

*

£ - 5

A> S > rvoo

oc

cns *->

ou

fa

in o i CN ID cn lO CN O cn rH cn rH If) r- r- i 00 cn 0 o i • • • • •

i • cn 4-> o i rH CN 1 0

1 rH rH rH 01 cn cn rH CN o CN cn CN rH rH i

i CN

cn in i cn CN 00

cn 0 O' 1 • • • cn 4J cn i o O o

rH rH 1 i 1

I I

in <«• r- id cm n co n <j i" HOCMHrl O O CM CM H O

I

CN

CN

I rH I 0) 1 rH rH 3 1 •r| •r| fa 1 O O rH

j >1 cn >1 •r| cn T3 1 r-4 4J 0) id -P 0) O id rH G I id rl 4-1 u rH -rl 4J O dJ

id 1 *rl O Id id O id i—

l

0

1 -U -H rH rH •r| H rH id rH o

P 1 C p rH nl u P •—

1

3 id 0 1 0) 4J *«H V* p P •r| V P £

4-1 1 T3 O 4J 3 at u P •r| 3 <d U 1 -rl Q) cn o 4J £ a) in cn P ai <D 1 cn rH •r| fa •d £ *—

1

**H a> id 4J

10 1 Q) fa a J z 0 w Q fa Z w

1 fa o

c

o

•*H

i 4->

i fa

rH ai i e

•r| c C 1 3

O »-i o -ri 1 m

>*1 *r| cn •*H rH | cn 4J 0) o id rH 4-> O 1 <

rH -H 4J O id id cn i Id U Id rH 0 4-» id i 0)

*r| -r| rH Id rH u P O i o

ll ll rl 3 id 0 l •r|

4-> 4J -rl V P £ fa P l p

cn U 4-1 rl 3 id cn 0 i fa 3 ai cn cn 4-> at C 4-> 1 O rH -H 01 fd 4-> id 0 i rH c w a fa Z CO P X i •r| M H 1 O

30
Table

Cb-2.

Projected

average

fuel

price

escalation

rates,

exclusive

of

general

price

inflation,

by

end-use

sector

and

fuel

type.

(percentage

change

compounded

annually)

I o n i cm in n in n r- r- co n VO rl ID '4* O 1 CM

1 (N 0 CM 1 • • • • •

1 O 4-1 O 1

1 CM CM 1

1 1 O O O rH O O H rl rl O O CM O rH rH |

1

1

rH

i in o l cm in n in h r— r— oo n M1 lO H (Ji M1 O 1 n

1 H 0 CM 1 • • • • •

1 O 4-> O 1

1 CM CM 1

1 1 O O O rH O O H rl rH O O CM rH rH rH 1

1

1

rH

in

<DO

-H —

1 o in 1 cm in n in n r- r~ oo ’S* n vo o vo ^ O 1 x> n

"S. 1 rH 0 *H | • • • • • 1 C

•S 1 O V O 1

1 CM CM 1 O O O <-H O O rH rH O O CM CM rH rH |

1 •H rH s 1 1 1 0) - o

2 §

u

-rH c> -2 In O

ao

I in o i n <3* o' CN O' 'O O O H 00 ID H O' *3* 1 rH rH n

•5 2 1 O 0 <H 1 • • • • • | -H • 5 o

-V

1 O -P O 1

1 CM CM 1 O rH rH o O rH CM rH CM

1 O H (N H H rH |

1 0 II CM

* a 1 1 i T3 n

I Q

rHu o> 0 rH 11 I o in i n vo id in cm h o' r- n M1 O 00 CM Cl lO 1

3 —

V r1 O 0 O 1 • • • • ai % 1 O -P O 1 O rH rH CM O CM CM CM rH O CM CM n rH rH | 4-1 CM oT .C> 1 CM CM 1 1 i o § -5 1 1 i d) 5 o

•n0

<3 * )H ^ 3 cu

i m o i ID 00 00 O M1 in ^ n cm cm n r~ cm 00 1 00 |q 1 O' 0 O 1 • • • • •

1 (MJO 1

1 <H CM 1 O H rl CN O CM n CM CM

1 O CM n CM rH rH |

1 CM

, « 1 1 i

c <

a

4

in in i

1 O' 0 O' 1 rH n rH 00 oo n oo rH n cm n oo in cm r» l • i CM

Ps| § 1 01+10' 1 O O rH rH O O CM CM rH O O CM CM rH O 1 CM C

§ ^

1 rH rH 1

1 1

1 1 1

i * -c 3 §

3 s? 3 §

d) i rH rH rH d) 3 i •r| •r| •*H c c

Cn i O o rH o rH 0 -rl

i >i (0 >1 •H CO >i •H CO •H rH

T3 1 rH 4-1 d) id -p d) o id rH •p d) O id rH P 0

C 1 id -rl 4J o rH -1 4-1 O id rH **H 4-1 O id id co m 1 -P O id id u id rH 0 m u id rH 0 4J id

1 4J --I rH <—

1

•r| •r| rH id rH U •r| **H rH id rH U p o

p 1 C P rH (d o P rH 3 id P P t—

1

3 id 0

0 1 d> -P •P P p -P -rl XI p g 4-» -P •P XI P g a p

•p 1 V O P 3 d) O 4J •rl 3 id CO 0 4J -r| 3 id co 0

o 1 -rl d) CO O 4-> g d) CO CO -P d) 3 d) CD m 4J d) C 4-» ai 1 0) rH -p <d g rH -*H d) id p XI rH •H d) id 4-1 Id o w 1 0) W Q iJ Z 0 W Q « 2 w C U Q 05 2 Ui P X

1 « o M H

31

Oil

Price

Assumption
Table

Cb-3.

Projected

average

fuel

price

escalation

rates,

exclusive

of

general

price

inflation,

by

end-use

sector

and

fuel

type.

(percentage

change

compounded

annually)

•5 Oo 1 0 co 1 co in CO in rH 7 8 4 n r- rH vo •vr

O 1 CN s a 1 CN 0 CN | • • • • £ 1 O1 CN

4->

O

CN 1 0 0 0 «H 0 0 rH rH rH 0 O CN CN

H rH |1 rH * £5 1 $ §

•2 1 in

O , cn inm in rH r- r- co co ^ VO 1 6 4 0 1 co 1 *H 1 0 to 02 11 0 0 • 0 rH 0. 0. 1. 1.

rH 0. 0. 2.

CN <-l rH | • rH * Cr 1 CN CN 1 1 •2 1 1 1 Coa •> to © a d> d u

•«H K, 1 0 in 1 cn m CO in rH r- r~ 00 CO 3 6 0 vO ^ 0 1 XI CO 1 *H 0 «H 1 • • • • c •

C! cug 1 O1 CN 1

-P

O

CN 0 0 0 rH 0 0 1 1 rH OOCNINH rH 111

•H

d)0

rH

b. **H ri.

14

O

a ao 1 in O 1 0 -a- CN co CN cn vo cn rH CN 00 r~ cn 1 rH rH CO

•» 1 0 0 rH 1 • • • • •H • § a l 0 4-> O 1 O *H H 0 0 rH CN 0 CN O r-4 CN rH rH rH | 0 11 CN a 1 CN CN 1 1 1 rO C2 1 1 1 TJ CO P rH cn

(3

vj tn O -4 s —

-5 1 0 in 1 ro in CN rH rH tn vo CN r- rH cn CO VO 1 TJ

i:

a 1 0 0 0 | • • • • d) • ro 1 0 4-> O 1 O rH rH CN 0 CN CN CN rH O CN CN f rH rH | 4-1 CN

Q

Co 1 CN 1 CN 11 11 U

d> * Q •ro

5** 0

V.i 0

•a

-2

Vt a, .2 1 LD O 1 cn r- in 00 0 in in *H rH r- in 00 O 00 1 00 1 CTV 0 O 1 • • Q O l cn l «—i

4->

O

CN 11 O rH rH rH 0 CN co CN CN

O CN co CO CN rH |1 CN

<3 l 1 1 3 a

si 0

<3 u l co in | O CN CO VO «H CO 00 00 00 in ^ 00 r- 0 00 1 CN

T 1 cn 0 tn | • • • • • 1 • s l cn 4-> cn 1 O O 0 rH 0 O CN *h rH 0 0 CN CO CN 0 1 CN Q t: 1 H rH 1 l | l S'* | 1 1 2 c

.2

•»*» Ci. 0

.§ | | 1

•r| -P .2s» 11

*—1

a) 11 rH rH rH 1 d> 1 ae a Jo 1 3 1 -H **H *«H c c 1 3

c> 1 Ui 1 O 0 rH

O rH 0 -4 1 to

as $ 1 1 cn >1 -r4 10 •r| to •«H ^4 1 to 1 XI 1 «-H 4-> d) m 4-> d> O <TJ rH 4-1 d) O (d rH 4-4 0 1 < •. 1 c 1 <d -4 4-1 O rH •H 4J O <d rH -4 4J O « <d to 1 "S d> 1 n) 1 •H O <fl 0 <d rH 0 aJ U (0 rH 0 4J a) l S3 -2 1 4J •H rH rH *«H •H rH OJ rH u •r4 •r| rH a) r-4 U Wl O l 0 a 1 U j c Vl *-4 0J u U rH 3 <0 14 V4 >-4 3 (t) 0 1 •H 5 1 0 1 0) V -4 14 u 4-> -*H XJ Vi p 4-14-1-4 XI >4 e 0. u 1 Vi 5: 3 1 4J 1 T3 U 4J 3 d) O -P -4 3 (d CO U 4J •r| 3 m to O 1 0-

1 O -r4 d> U) O 4-> d) to t0 4-1 <u 3 0) CO to 4-1 d) c -M l 1 <D | tfl rH -H 0- (0 rH -H d) <t) 4J 'O r-4 —4

d) 111 4J <d 0 1 rH 1 tn 1 d) W Q ij 2 0 CO Q « 2 W C U Q a 2 tn 14 X 1 •H 1 1 ot u M H 1 0

32
Table

Cb-4.

Projected

average

fuel

price

escalation

rates,

exclusive

of

general

price

inflation,

by

end-use

sector

and

fuel

type.

(percentage

change

compounded

annually)

e>o s;©

£

~-i

I 9

*1

!

a

(3

i

5

6

SCo

OC as

es

<5 g

o cn i cn in cn in h r> r» oo 'd* <#^OHin O 1 CN

CN 0 CN 1 • • • • • 1 • O P O 1 O O O rH OOHHH OOCNCNH rH 1 rH

CN CN

j

1

1

in o 1 cn in cn in !—i r- r- oo cn cn id <h co 'S* O 1 cn H ON 1 • • • • • 1 • OUO 1 O O O rH O O <—l rH l-l OOCNCNH rH | rH

I (N CM I

l o in I

l o O o l

I OUO I

I CM CM I

I I

m in cn cn O H H N

a

s;

l in O 1 a* r- in

.NJ £ 1 O' 0 O 1 • • •

1 O' p O 1 O rH rH

1 H

1 CN 11 a

S3

-ii >

I cn in i rH CO 00

1 O' 0 O' 1 • • • * 1 O' P O' 1 rH O O

1 rH rH 1 | k; 1

• © S

c

Co c> oc

(NH(J\lOn

OCMtNCMO

<» in in h n

O (N n (N H

O cn <T* O' «-l OOMHH

r'OO'no

O CN CN m rH

o cn in oo vo hcnocnh

cn sr oo oo h

OOCNCNH

ooo

0) I r-H rH rH 0) 3 | •*H •r| •r| c c

fa 1 o O rH O rH 0 -p

I >i m >i •r| m •*H cn •rl rH

*0 1 rH P a> cd P d) O cd rH P d) O cd rH P 0

c 1 Cd H p O rH **H P O cd rH -*H P u cd cd cn

cd 1 -H CJ cd cd u cd rH 0 cd o cd rH 0 p cd

1 P -H rH t—

c

•H -H rH cd rH O •H **H rH cd rH u P o

P 1 C P rH cd u p rH 3 cd u u rH 3 cd 0

0 1 0) P •H p P P •H X3 p E p p •H *0 p E fa P P 1 XI O P 3 d) u P •H 3 cd cn u p -H 3 cd cn o

o 1 -H 0) cn e> P i o) cn cn P d> 3 d) cn cn P 0) C P

Q> 1 01 «H •H cu cd C H •H d) cd P Xi rH -H d> cd P cd 0

(0 1 0) fa Q j 2 o w Q 06 2 w C fa Q 06 2 W P X

1 06 u M E-c

O in i cn in cn in 1 7 7 00 cn in h in ># O i XJ m

rH 0 rH 1 • • • • • i c • o

CN p O 1 CN 1 0 0 o rH 0 0 1 rH rH O O CN CN <H rH i

i •H rH

<Du

-—

p o

0,0

in O 1 «h CN 00 «3* 00 ID O' H rH 00 ID CN 00 cn i rH rH cn o 0 rH | • • • • • i •rl • o P O 1 O rH o O rH CN O rH O rH CN rH rH rH i 0 n CN

CN CN 1 1 I 1 i TJ cn

rH O' P O' 0 <h 3 —

TJ t d) P c u

0) •r—

i

0

P

fa

00

CN

CN

33

Oil

Price

Assumption
Table

Cb-5.

Projected

average

fuel

price

escalation

rates,

exclusive

of

general

price

inflation,

by

end-use

sector

and

fuel

type.

(percentage

change

compounded

annually)

o CO 1 ro in CO in h t- r— oo co CO VO rH <T> CO O i CM CM 0 CM 1 • • • • • i • O -P CM O 1 CM 1 0 0 o O O H H H OOCIHH i

i

i

rH

in O 1 cm in CO in rH r- r- oo lO O CO *3* O 1 co

•H 0 CM 1 • • • • • O -P CM O 1 CM 11 o o o rH O O H H rl O O CM CM <H rH 1

11

(0®

u

•rH

rH

O in i cm in CO in rH r~- r~ oo CO ID rH ID O 1 V CO

rH 0 rH | • • • • • 1 c • O -P CM O 1 CM

J 0 0 o rH O O rH rH rH O O CM CM rH <H 1

11

•rH®

O

•rH —

.

p o

ao

rH

to O 1 r-t CO ro 00 cm oo ^ cr> oo cm oo id cm r- CO 1 rH rH co o 0 H I • • • • • | •H • O 4-> CM O 1 CM 1

1 O rH rH o O rH CM O rH O rH CN rH rH rH 1

11

world

o

(1993

= CM

O in i cm in in CM CM O ID 10 O ID O 00 00 CO ID 1 "O O 0 O l • • • • • | a> • O -P CM O 1 CM 1 O rH rH CM O CM CM CM rH

1 O CM CM CO rH rH 1

11 Uo

Q>

•r-v 0

P

Ou

CM

in O 1 ro r- in 00 rl<#HHO ID CO ID 00 1 00

Cr> 0 O 1 • • • • • o> -P «H O 1 CN 1 O rH rH rH O CM CO CM CM

1 O CM CO CO rH rH 1

1

1

CM

do3 1 CO in O CM 00 ID vOM'inoM" CM 'T 00 CO 00 p- 1 CM

1 o> 0 (Tv • • • • • 1 • £ i cr. p 0> O O O rH o o 2 2 1 O O CM CO rH O 1 CM

1 rH

| rH 1 1

1 § c

jZ o

to •rH

i

i rH 1 •Pa

i ® rH rH rH <D 1 e

i 3 •rH •r| *H C C 1 3

s i fa O O rH o rH 0 -rH 1 CD

i >1 in •rH in •r| in •r| rH | (0

i V rl4J (D <11 4J a) O *11 H •p ® O aJ rH pi 0 1 <

i c (fl rl 4J O •—1 H 4-1 O m rH H 4-1 o m m in i

i aJ •r| O <0 mom rH 0 mom rH 0 H-» m i ®

i 4-1 H rH rH H H rH m rH U •r| *H rH rH u p O 1 O

i P C VH rl (d O P rl 3 m P P rl 3 aJ 0 1 •r|

i 0 ® 4J -rl P P 4-1 -H "O P 6 -P -P -rl "O p £ Dip 1 P

i 4J "0 0 4-1 3 ai o 4J •rH 3 m in o 4J -rH 3 (ti in o i cu

i O •rl a) in o 4J g a> in m4->® 3 ® m in •P ® C -P i

i a> 01 rl -H (1. ID ^ H H ai m 4-> "O rH -H ® m p m o i rH

i w muohiz 0 W Q KZW c w a K 2 w P X 1 H

i a; U W H | o

34
D. Factors for Updating Appliance Label Values in Compliance With the Energy

Conservation Mandatory Performance Standards for New Federal Residential

Buildings (10 CFR 435)

Compliance with energy conservation performance standards for new Federal residential buildings

requires calculation of a building’s energy costs, including appliance costs. For this purpose, label

values for gas and electric water heaters are given in the Federal micro-computer program,

COSTSAFR, as $176 and $406 per year, respectively, in 1987 dollars, and for refrigerator/freezers,

as $61 per year in 1987 dollars. To adjust 1987 prices to 1993 prices, multiply these 1987 label

values by the factors below.

Table D. Factors for updating appliance label values from 1987-1993 dollars.

Fuel Factor

Gas 1.17

Electricity 1.16

35
PART II: TABLES FOR PRIVATE SECTOR LIFE-CYCLE

COST ANALYSIS

Projected average fuel price indices for private sector use (Indices are given

inclusive of four alternative rates of general price inflation)

This section presents in Tables S-l through S-5 projected average fuel price indices for 4 fuels in the residential sector and 5 fuels in the commercial sector for each of the years from 1994 through

2023. They update tables originally published in the report, Comprehensive Guide for Least-Cost

Energy Decisions (NBS SP 709).

As a convenience for the user, the indices include the effect of four alternative, hypothetical rates of general price inflation: 3, 4, 5, and 6%. Selection of these rates is intended in no way to suggest

what actual rates might be. Use of the indices produce price estimates which are in current dollars,

inclusive of general price inflation. Current dollar prices are needed when discounting is performed

with discount rates which include general price inflation.

The indices based on inflation rates of 3, 4, 5, and 6% allow the analyst to perform evaluations

based on the assumption of a positive rate of general price inflation that changes the purchasing

power of the dollar. Performing evaluations in current dollars is sometimes preferred for private

investment decisions, primarily because it facilitates the treatment of taxes.

The indices in Tables S-l through S-5 are derived from the indices reported in Tables Ca-1 through

Ca-5 by means of the following equation:

/j - ic * a + *)w

,

where IsIcg

N

index found in Tables S-l through S-5;

index found in Tables Ca-1 through Ca-5;

annual rate of general price inflation in decimal form; and

number of periods, in this case equal to the year of the index minus 1993.

Example of How to Use the Indices:

Suppose you wish to estimate the present value of energy savings in year 2000, and you expect an

annual inflation rate of 5% per year. Taking natural gas for residential use in Maryland, estimate

present value savings as follows: (1) multiply today’s price for residential natural gas in Maryland

by the projected quantity of energy savings in the year 2000 to estimate savings in the year 2000 in today’s prices; (2) go to Table S-3, find the year 2000 index for residential natural gas at a 5%

inflation rate (1.58), and multiply the index by the result from (1) to determine savings in the year

2000 in 2000 prices; and (3) discount the savings back to the present, using an SPV factor based on

a discount rate that reflects a 5% inflation rate. To obtain present value savings over the entire study

period, this calculation must be repeated for each year that there are

36
savings, and the results summed. (UPV* factors are not given for private sector use because of the

large number of tables required to cover potential discount rates that might be used by the analyst.)

The BLCC computer program can perform LCC analyses using any inflation rate and discount rate,

in constant or in current (market) dollars. The DISCOUNT program, included with BLCC, can compute UPV* factors based on DOE energy price escalation rates using any inflation rate and

discount rate. (See page iv for more information on these programs.) Of course the private sector

analyst may use the UPV* factors provided in Part I, provided the analysis is performed in constant

dollars, and the desired discount rate is either 3.1% or 10%. The DISCOUNT program (version

3.3) included with BLCC can compute UPV* factors on a personal computer for any discount rate (see page iv for information on DISCOUNT).

For further explanation of the use of these indices, see NBS Special Publication 709, appendix B,

Part I.

The data in the tables which follow are reported for the 4 Census regions and the U.S. average.

Figure B-l presents a map showing the states corresponding to the 4 Census regions. The Census

regions do not include American Samoa, Canal Zone, Guam, Puerto Rico, Trust Territory of the

Pacific Islands, or the Virgin Islands. Analysts of Federal projects in these areas should use data

which are "reasonable under the circumstances," and may refer to the tables with U.S. average data

for guidance.

37
C0 UN pn f\j

M -1 S •-

N PO

O >0 PO ru o O' N- in in N- ru O' O' ru co 00 r\j O' ru

vO o rsi po in >o oo

O PO 'J' vO co o >3- >0 O' ru in O' ru no in

O NO <- CO

C/5

C/3 *- *- *- «- «“ •- *- ru ru ru ru ru PO PO PO PO PO >u- in in NO NO Px px 00 00 m*

03

cu

CD CD o'x

x nn

O

N sO

O nO CO vt h- o ro S- o O O' o ^ O' in PO PO in 00 xt ru po

u in o '

(M ru PO in >o CO O' o ru PO >0 N» O' o PO in r- O' ru in oo xd- 00 ru no e

<U .- »- *- r- r- <— ru ru ru ru ru ru ru PO PO PO PO PO nJ- xd- in in in nO nO o 3, D

s*

r

4-> nO vO PO o NO in NO

OOO in vO vO UN NO in o nO po o o PO Px ru co 3C

P! Z

xt o fVJ PO PO in vO r- oo O' o ru PO NO O' o ru NO oo o ru xt Pm O' 3

*“ *“ *" *“ «"* ru ru ru ru ru ru ru ru PO PO PO PO PO xt xt xt xt xt

Ci in o PO 00 o 'O nU- ru

O 00 vt <

O' in «— O' O' O' O' o «—

R

NO s

ru Nf> 'nO po

in Nat £

ro o o CM PO PO nJ in >o os 00 00 O' o o ru PO in >o 00 ru xt _u *” *“ ^ *“ *“ *“ ru ru ru ru ru ru ru ru ru ru PO PO PO PO PO u

Q. "3u

<usV

Oi

va

g

-2

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(/> *“ •“ *- *- *- «- *- OJ 0J OJ OJ OJ 0J ro ro ro ro >4 >4 >4 in in in NO NO nI n! 00 O'

(D O 0

s? r*- n4- o CO 00 o 0J in o >4 N- NO o >4 , 0J in O' >4 ^ o ^ vt 00 vO

'O o

SO oo in o (M fNJ ro in Is- co o t- 0J >4 in CO o 0J >4 NO co >4 r^ o ro >4 oo

ru

l_ *- *- •- *- »- *- *- *- 0J OJ 0J OJ 0J 0J 0J ro ro ro ro ro v4 >4 n4 in in in vO >0 nO D

4-» 5^ vO (\J N- 'J* o o o OJ 0J OJ ro >4 >4 >4 vO o in , co in >4 >4 >4 vO O' >4 ro >0

O' vO

<T3 >4 o fNJ ro >4- >4 in 0- co O' o OJ ro >4 in N. 00 o ro in N- O' 00 *— *- *- *- *- *- *- *- *- *- *- «— 0J 0J 0J OJ OJ OJ 0J OJ ro ro ro ro ro ro >4 n4 >4 >4 in

in o <f O in 0J o vO in ro o K oo

co in 0J O' r^ N- 00 o ^ ro vO o >4 00 >4 O ro o 0J ro ro >4 in NO 00 O' o O OJ ro >4 vO N- oo O' OJ ro in r^ s

*“ *“ *” *— *“ OJ 0J OJ 0J OJ OJ OJ OJ OJ OJ ro ro ro ro ro ro

in CO r^ N- o 0J in O' OJ N- 'J- OJ OJ ro ro in 00 ro o n. oo OJ r»- in in oo o o T_ r_ OJ ro >4- in 00 O' «— 0J >4 NO oo o OJ >4 <5 CO ro vO O' OJ sO O' ro 0-

*- *- *- *- •- *- *- *- <- *- 0J OJ 0J OJ 0J ro ro ro ro ro >4 >4 >4 >4 in in in vO >o r^

>4 o in OsJ o O o O' o <- ro nO O' >4 O' in O' in r co >o 'O NO O' OJ h- ro ^ LA o o 00 ro ro v4 in Is- co O' o 0J in 00 o OJ ro in N- O' ro vO 00 >4

a._

j

•- •- *- •- *- *- •- *- «- «— OJ OJ OJ 0J OJ OJ OJ ro ro ro ro ro ro >4 >4 >4 in in

ro o (M 00 O co vO n4 OJ T— o ro ro >4 >4 in 1^ o >4 00 0J N- ro

in K

O' vO

^4 o o *- 0J ro ro >4 in >o N- 00 O' o OJ ro >4 in vO oo o 0J >4 00 o

*- *- *- *- <- «- «- *- *- «- *- *- OJ 0J OJ OJ 0J 0J OJ 0J 0J ro ro ro ro ro ro ro >4

OJ CO ro CO >4- o ro O' in t— 00 in ro co in 0J O' vO ro O' 00 $

in v4

co

n4 >4 ro o o o OJ ro ro >4 >4 in 'O vO oo O' O' o *- OJ ro >4 ^4 in O' O

*” r- *“ 0J OJ OJ OJ 0J OJ OJ OJ OJ OJ 0J OJ ro

>o ro o o 0J in co ro oj co in in o o ro N- ro o O O' OJ >4 >4 'O O'

>o o OJ ro >4" in >o O O oj ro in r- O' *— >4 'O 00 >4 'O O' ro NO O >4 00 ro N- o

*- *- *- *- *- *- *- «- OJ OJ OJ OJ 0J OJ ro ro ro ro >4 >4 >4 >4 in in vO vd 'd rd ^

QJ in CO in >4" ^4 in O' O OJ vO >4 o vO ro o o >4 0- OJ oo vO vO

4-» $ (D in o 0J ro >4 in 'O N- oo o <- OJ >4 in N- O' o OJ >4 vO oo o OJ >4 0- O' OJ in *- *- «- *- •- «- *- «- »- *- OJ OJ OJ OJ OJ oj OJ ro ro ro ro ro >4 >4 >4 >4 >4 in in in

4-» 5^ st o CO O >4 ro ro O O' O' OJ in co o OJ in oo OJ 0- OJ 00 in ro o CO O o 0J 0J ro >4 in vO 0- 00 00 O' r“ OJ ro >4 in N- co O' o 0J ro in NO oo o OJ >4 o «- *- *- >- *- »- «- *- *- *- *- •- *- OJ OJ 0J OJ 0J 0J OJ OJ ro ro ro ro ro ro -4 *4 >4

ro vO oj co in 0J O' vO 0J O' NO >4 0J O' Is- >4 0J O oo 0- N- 00 O'

ro o o *- 0J 0J ro >4 >4 in >0 vO oo O' o o 0J ro *4 >4 in vO O' o OJ *“ *“ *" 0J 0J 0J OJ OJ OJ OJ OJ OJ OJ 0J oj ro ro ro

r- in m o 0J ro in O' OJ NO O' o O' in O' in fCro >4 oo ro

vO o (\j ro v4- in vO 00 O' o <- ro >4 vO N- O' o OJ v4 O >4 o ro no o >4

>- - - *- - - - *- »- «- *- 0J OJ OJ OJ OJ 0J OJ ro ro ro ro ro >4 >4 >4 in in in vO vO M

NO ro o NO >4- 0J o CO CO vO in

00 O' 'O nO co in O' >4 o in

fC

ro >4 in 00 oj O in o OJ ro >4 in NO 'O N- o OJ ro >4 vO h'- oo O OJ ro in O' <— ro in oo

c_

4-J *- *- «- *- «- - - *- *- *- - - OJ 0J OJ 0J OJ OJ 0J OJ ro ro ro ro ro ro >4 >4 >4 >4 u

a> in % vO 0J co >4 m 00 in ^ 00 >4

'O N-

^ O' N- ro o O' O' o O' o OJ >4 0- o ro 0- OJ

>4 o 0J 0J ro >4 >4 in vO CO CO O' o OJ OJ ro ^4 in 00 O' O oj ro >4 >0 *- - «- «- - - - *- -- *- - *- *- «- «- rvj 0J 0J OJ OJ OJ OJ OJ 0J OJ ro ro ro ro ro

5^ CO ro N- 0J h- 0J r^ OJ t— in o in o >4 O' in ro o N- >4 oo vO >4 OJ

ro o o OJ OJ ro ro >4 >4 in in vO vO 00 O' O' o OJ ro ro >4 in 'O o-

*- *- *- *- •- *- OJ OJ OJ OJ OJ OJ OJ OJ 0J 0J

i_ vt NO 00

8: o OJ ro >4 in vO oo O' o OJ ro >4 in 'O N- oo O' O T- OJ ro

CD o 8: o o o o o o o o o o o O OJ 0J 0J 0J o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o O o o O o o o o o o

>- OJ OJ OJ OJ OJ OJ OJ OJ OJ OJ OJ OJ OJ OJ OJ OJ OJ OJ OJ OJ 0J OJ OJ OJ

44
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N- in >4- ro ro st v* >3- vO co CM N»

m r— (M >3- co ro

O

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NO o (\J ro st in vO rs CO On o f\J ro in N- On ro NO On in co fM in o vt o vt On *- *- *- *- *- *- *- *- *- *“ r\j rsj fM r\j ru CM m m ro M vt >t st in in in nO NO NCDo o ro CO nO in rO O CO co co o OJ in co in fNO ro >3- NO On >t , 00 oo o >3

(_) in o f\J cm K> >4- in

O Is 00 On ro ro in NO co o fM st nO CO St nO O' ro NO o E

*- *- *" *- •- *- •- *- *- »- *- «- r\j r\j <\j (\j (M ro ro ro ro ro ro >t >t st >t in in NO

CD in rs ro o r^ ro o in rsj On in vt >3* in N- o m >0 fM O' n. in in in rs- ^ CO st o *- r\i ro m st >3" in NO nO co O' o f\l >3- in nO 00 On fM >3 nO oo o fM in *- *- *- *- «- *- *- *- «- *- *- *- *- <M (\j (\i OJ fM fM fM fM ro ro ro ro ro st st >t

st CO st o o st co f\l CM Nm O' NO n3-

m f\l o O o o fM >t NO O' ro N.

ro o o rsj f\J rO ro >3- >3* in in vO NO N- 00 o o fM ro sf in NO co On o fM ro

«- r- T- T~ T“ r- *- «- <— <- T- <- *— T- i- CM fM fM fM fM fM fM fM fM fM ro ro ro

co fNM in in nO o st o co rs. in >t ro >t >t O' 00 o st

O o fM 00 00 fM o fM O' fM

nO o fM ro >t in N. On o fM st NO co o fM sr nO O' ro NO

O ^t co fM rs. ro On in

O

*- *- *- *- *- «- «“ fM fM fM fM fM ro ro ro ro ro >t >t in in in NO NO rs. rs oo On On

(0 3n5

fN^ in fM o On o fM NO NO in

O NO NO >t NO O' st o co co in fM ro OO rs in O fM ro ro in nO O' o <M ro in nO co O' ro in co ro nO o ro rs in O' st

03 «- *- *- *- «- *- *- *- *- fM fM fM fM fM fM fM ro ro ro ro st >t >t in in in NO nO nO rs D

NO fM oo in ro fM fM ro in rs. On o ro ro Nt ro On rs. in in NO co NO fM o o o

03 st o fM ro st in NO N- oo On *- fM ro st in NO oo O' ro in fs. O' fM st rs o fM NO

*- *- •- *- «- *- *- *- *- *- fM fM fM fM fM cm fM fM ro ro ro ro ro >t st >3 in in in

o'? in

O in o st fMO o On in ro rs. N- 00 O' >t in rs st o On ro o fM fM ro >3- in NO N- co On o fM ro st NO N- 00 o ro st NO co o *”

r- r- «- r- «- r- <- fM fM fM fM fM fM fM fM fM ro ro ro ro ro ro st >t

zz o O' O' r— in T— On On o r— o fM IS in nO o in o rs CO «— co On ro (M in >t co NO fM

NO fM sr in rs 00

O ro in rs On >t rs st co in o sr On in rs st O' CO r- <- «- fM fM fM fM fM ro ro ro st >3- >t in in NO nO nO rs CO co O' o o T-

*"

S'? O' rs in in oo fM rs st fM oo st fM nO fM O' in fM fM nO fM o o st ro O'

—

in o fM ro st NO rs O' rvj >t NO co o fM in is o ro NO On fM NO o st co ro co ro CO

D

“O *- *- *- *- *- *- *- «- fM fM fM fM fM ro ro ro ro >t St >t >t in in nO NO nO rs rs co oo

(/) oo in fM o ro nO o ^t rs O' ro CO st ro fM fM o ro nO rs vt ro >3 rs rs

<D st o fM ro st in nO oo On o ro >t nO co o fM st nO CO o fM in rs o ro nO O' ro nO

*- *- *- *- >- *- *- *- *- fM fM fM fM fM fM ro ro ro ro ro st >t >t >3 in in in in >o nO

rs fM co in st Nt in NO 00 co rs rs 00 in O' ro NO o >t On >3- CO nO in in nO rs o

ro o fM ro st in nO rs CO On o ro St in S- co o fM st NO rs O' ro in rs o

<- t- T- *- r- «

T- «- fM fM fM fM fM fM fM ro ro ro ro ro ro ro >t •s3 >3 st st

nO ro fM fM ro nO «— rs st o nO st >t NO rs fM IS >3 ro ro nO T— co rs o in ro in o

NO o fM ro st in rs oo

O fM ro in rs On fM >3 IS O' fM in co in 00 fM rs nO rs o

*- *- *- *- *- *- fM fM fM fM fM fM ro ro ro ro st st st in in in NO NO rs rs co co

03 in 00 rs rs CO o rs

O ro rs fMO CO CO is in Nt in nO O' ro 00 in ro ro in On st

4-» in o fM ro >3 nO

k CO o fM st nO rs On ro in rs On st NO O' fM in oo in . *- - *- *- «- *- •- «- *- fM fM fM fM fM fM fM ro ro ro ro ro *3 >3 >3 "3 in in in NO nO M >3 On in fM o o o o fM fM fM fM >3 rs NO O' fM in o st O' in fM o co rs oo On

</) >t

OO fM ro >3 in NO IS 00 OnO fM St in nO oo On fM ro in rs On o fM >3 nO o

Os *- *- *- *- *- *- *- *- *- *- fM fM fM fM fM fM fM fM ro ro ro ro ro ro st >3 >3 n3 st

S'? ro rs fM is >3 fM o O' rs in fM

O O' 00 O' O' On rs NO in in st in in NO rs O' fM st 00 ro o o fM ro st >3 in nO IS CO 00 On O fM ro st in nO rs oo O' o fM >3 in NO

T- T~ T- T- T- r- T- r- T- T- T- r- fM fM fM fM fM fM fM fM fM fM ro ro ro ro ro ro

nO fM On rs in st ro ro st st in rs O' fM st rs x— oo in st ro st NO o st r- O' CO o ro

NO o fM ro st in nO rs 00 O' o ro st in rs co o CM st NO co o ro nO co in CO >

*- *- *- «- *- *- *- *- - - *“ fM fM fM fM CM fM fM ro ro ro ro ro st st st st in in in

4-» in

O NO fM O' NO ro fM o 00 nO in st ro CM ro in oo nO o NO ro o co fs oo O'

O in o fM fM ro st in NO NO IS co O' o fM ro st in nO 00 o fM >3 NO rs O' ro

L.

4-*

— «- - - - - «- - - — *-— fM fM fM fM fM fM fM fM fM ro ro ro ro ro ro

n3 st

U

0) st CO ro 00 ro 00 st o NO fM On in rs st

O nO >3 CM

O o O O' o fM st nO O' >t o o fM fM ro st st in in NO rs oo co O o CM ro ro st in r^» CO O' o fM

UJ «- *- *- *- «- - - - *- - *-

— - — - - fM fM fM fM fM fM fM fM CM fM ro ro ro

ro NO On ro rs in o st 00 ro rs in o fM NO fM rs fM CO st 2s NO fM oo in fM O' nO ro o o O fM fM ro ro ro st st in in in >0 nO rs IS CO oo o o o fM ro ro

«- «— T- <— T- T- <- r~ r- T- T- t— «- fM fM fM fM fM fM fM

l_ >3 in >0 IS 00 O' o CM ro st in NO is 00 O'

O «— fM ro st in NO rs co O'

O

— fM ro

(T3 O' O' O' On O' O' o o O o o o o o O o fM fM fM fM

<13 On

O O' O' O' On o o O o o o o o O o O o O o o o o o o o O o O

O >- <— fM CM CM fM fM fM fM fM CM fM fM fM fM fM fM fM fM fM fM fM fM fM fM fM

45
Table

S-5.

Projected

fuel

price

indices

with

assumed

general

price

inflation

rates

of

3,

4,

5,

and

6%,

by

end-use

sector

and

fuel

type.

Oo

<3£

s

I

I

t/) <uo

•ac

<uo

o' £

<

P

z

UJ0

UJ

Ce

S

5*5 CO NO >4* m >4- vO o in r— O >0 >4- «- o O ro o CO o fM 00 N. 00 ro fM 00 NvO o fM ro >4- in N. 00 O ro in O' fM in r^ o ro o >4* 00 ro oo ro CO >4“

(/> «- *- *- *- - *- * *- fM fM fM fM fM fM ro ro ro ro >4- >4- >4- in in in nO 'O 00 O'

fD O >4 co r^ CO O' in £ ro vO o in O' ro o o ro ro o co o fM N- >4* ro vO

in o CM fM ro *4 in 00 O' fM >4* in >0 00 o fM >4" >0 00 >4- o ro vO o >4- eo

03(. •- «- «- *- *- *- *- *- fM fM fM fM fM fM ro ro ro ro ro n4 >4“ >4 >4 in in >0 NO o

3M vO fM N. >4- o o o o fM fM fM ro ro ro in O >4- o N- >4* ro fM ro in 00 fM in

03 o fM to ro >4- in co O' O *- fM ro >4 in >o 00 o ro in o ro >0 00

«- *- *- *- *- «- *- *- *- «- «- fM fM fM fM fM fM fM fM ro ro ro ro ro ro >4- >4* >4- >4- in

in O O' in O r^ in fM O in (M 00 >0 >0 00 o fM in o ro r^ fM 00 in m o fM ro ro >4- in •o CO co C> o o fM ro >4- in N- 00 o o fM ro in >0 00 «- «- «“ «- «- <r- T- «“ «- «- fM fM fM fM fM fM fM fM fM fM ro ro ro ro ro ro

in O CO hw CO o n «— in o O' O' fM in o in >o 00 fM 00 S- 00

>o o (M ro >4- >o oo O ro >4- 'O CO o fM >4- r^ O' CM >4- s- O ro N- O >4- S ro

*- — *- *- *- *- *- *- >- fM fM fM fM fM fM ro ro ro ro ro 'J* >4- in in in vO vO >o N-

^4 00 in fM o o o fM ro ^4- in 00 ro 00 >4- o in o h- ro fM ro >4- N- nO CM o in O o fM ro >4- in vO oo O' o ro >4- >o CO O' fM >4- >o 00 o fM >4- O' CM in

a. •- •“ *- «- «- «- *- *- - *- «- fM fM fM fM fM fM fM ro ro ro ro ro *4- v4* >4- in in

ro o fM CO >4- fM o O' 00 S3 >4- ro ro ro in 6- oo oo O' o fM N- o >4- 00 >4“ O' 'O ro

>4* o o fM ro >4- >4- in 'O co O' o fM ro >* in 00 O' o fM ro >4- MJ N* O' *- *- «- *- *- *- *- *- *- *- *- «- «- fM fM CM fM CM fM fM fM fM ro ro ro ro ro ro ro >4*

3* fM >4- oo ro O' in 00 >4- N- ro o 00 >4- fM 00 in ro o 00 'O >4- fM o O' 2^ O' ro O O o fM ro ro >4- in in 'O r^ 00 O' o o fM ro ro >4- in vO N- oo 00 O' o

«- r- «- «- *- r- «- «- »- r- T- r- «- T- fM fM fM fM fM CM fM CM fM fM CM CM fM ro

vO ro r— O o V— >4

- fM vO o NO ro fM ro in O' ro CO in ro >4 >o *— 00 N* O' ro o NO o fM ro >4 in O O' o fM ro in N- O' ro in 00 o ro vO O' fM NO O' ro 1^ fM O

«- *- *- *- *- *- - «- *- fM fM fM fM CM fM ro ro ro ro >4 >4 >4 >4 in in in vO vO r- NQJ in r^ in >4

- ro ro >4 NO N- 2

* >4 co >4 N- ro o N> >0 O N- O' CM N- ro o O' o

ro in o fM ro >4

- in 00 O' CM ro in N- 00 o CM ro in N- O' >4 'O O' CM >4 oo *- *- *- *- *- *- *- *- *- «- *- fM fM fM CM fM fM ro ro ro ro ro ro >4 >4 >4 >4 in in in

*-> >4

- o >4- o in ro fM fM O O' 00 CO oo o (M >4 in O' in O' ro 00 >4 oo vO in

00 >4

- O o fM CM ro in vO r^- 00 O' o fM ro >4 in >o N- O' o ro >4 o oo O' ro o *- *- *- *- *- - *- *- *- *- — *- fM fM fM fM CM fM fM fM ro ro ro ro ro ro ro >4 >4

ro 'O N- >4

" oo in >4 fM O 2" >4 fM O CO >0 in >4 >4 ro ro N4 >4 >0

ro o o CM CM ro >4 >4 in o vO co O' O' o fM ro ro >4 in •O 00 O' o fM

r- T- T- r- i- r- <- T- r- r- «- r- fM fM CM CM fM CM fM fM fM fM fM ro ro ro

S'? 'O fM O' 'O >4 ro ro CM fM ro in vO O' fM vO r— in ro ro ro 'O R

>4 «— O' O' O >4 O

vO O fM ro >4 in vO co O' O ro >4 o O' ro in fM in N* O >4

>* «- - *- — - - - - *- - «- fM fM fM fM fM fM CM ro ro ro ro ro >4 >4 >4 in in in >o

4-» in o o , N- in ro O 00 k:^ ro ro >4 >4 vO 00

tc o in 00 in ^4 >4 >4 'O O' o in o fM fM ro >4 in in NO O' o fM ro >4 vO O' o fM ro in r^ O' ro in

l_

4-< *- *- *- - *- «- - *- *- - - *- fM fM fM fM CM CM fM fM ro ro ro ro ro ro >4 >4 >4 O

a> >4 00 ro n oo >4 O' in fM 00 oo in fM O' 00 6- N- h- N- oo o CM s- in —

»

>4 O o CM CM ro ro >4 in in 00 O' o O CM ro >4 in O 00 O' o *- ro >4 - *- - - *- - *- - *- - - — «- *- *- fM CM fM CM CM fM fM CM fM fM ro ro ro ro

ro vO O' fM nO o in O' ro co fM vO in o in O vO 1^ ro o 'O ro o <4 fM o 00

ro o o o fM fM CM ro ro >4 >4 in in vO 'O N- 00 00 O' o o fM CM ro >4 in in *- *“ •- *" *“ fM fM CM fM fM fM fM fM fM

C- >4 in o N- 00 Cb o fM ro >4 in vO oo O' o fM ro >4 in NO N- oo O' o cm ro

ro R R R R

O' o O O o O o o o o o fM CM fM CM

a> 6. o o O o o o o o o o o O O o O o o O o O O O o o

>- fM fM CM fM fM CM fM fM fM fM fM fM fM fM fM fM CM fM fM CM fM CM fM fM

46
Table

S-5,

continued.

Projected

fuel

price

indices

with

assumed

general

price

inflation

rates

of

3,

4,

5,

and 6

%,

by

end-use

sector

and

fuel

type. c/1 <DO

•oc

<L> O

CZ Cu133

UON

ON <

3o

ao2

S

b & s £

,>-

1 <4-1 £

O

°

u

Cti LUS

OL

0'S ro x ' 60

TD r- c .5 £

o

a “ g u >0 CO8

•»»* 5

1 'E? o Q0

<D w

'o’ £

o

Om in

(D

- in in >4- in co r— ro vO O' ro T— o o ro vO ro co r^ h- O' 4 «— ro in ro ro 'O ro in

> <— ro ro >4- in N- co O' o ro >4 o co o ro in r- o ro nO o 4 co ro N- ro N* ro O'

•- *- «- *- *- *- *- ro ro ro ro ro ro ro ro ro 4 4 4 in in in 'O OD N. co co

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CO 00 o ro r^ >4 ro ro o o ro O' 00 O' ro in o co o 4 ro 4 o o in in o 1 *

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ro ro ro >4 NO co O' ro ro in NO co o ro 4 NO co o ro in N- o ro NO O' to «- «- *- *- *- *- *- «- *- ro ro ro ro ro ro ro ro ro ro ro 4 4 4 4 in in in in vO

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hO ro ro ro vO o vO ro co >4 ro ro >4 co ro O' 4 o co O' in ro ro CO in Nro ro >4- in N* co o ro in N- O' 4 vO O' ro 4 N- 4 co ro nO O in o O

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i o 4 O' in CO >4 O' >4 ro o O' o ro in co in o vO ro O co N- co o ro ro ro *4 in in vO Is- 00 O' o o ro ro 4 in nO oo O' ro 4 vO O'

' - - — <- - - *- *- *- - *- *- ro ro ro ro ro ro ro ro ro ro ro ro ro ro ro 4

o in O' >4* O' >4 O' <T O in Is- Ro N- 4 ro o O' oo N- N- N- oo O' ro

» o ro (\J ro ro -4 in in VO NO co oo O' o *“ ro ro 4 in >o CO o

• - «- *- *- *- *- - -- - - *- *- — - *- *- *- ro ro ro ro ro ro ro ro ro ro ro ro

i in N- O ro r^ >4 h- in co ro 'O O 4 00 ro co R

O' 4 o o ro co 4 co in

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o o o o O o O O o o ro ro ro ro

• o O' o o o o O o O O o o o o o o O o o o o o o o o o T— ro ro ro ro ro ro ro ro ro ro ro ro ro ro ro ro ro ro ro ro ro ro ro ro

47 *U.S. G.P.O. : 1993— 34 1—832:82071