# REGULATORY EVALUATION

FINAL RULE

FUEL TANK VENT FIRE PROTECTION

14 CFR 25

OFFICE OF AVIATION POLICY AND PLANS

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS DIVISION

( APO

- 30 0 )

Daniel F. Leach

February 16, 2016

## 2

I

. INTRODUCTION

Current airworthiness standards include requirements (14 CFR 25.981 “Fuel tank ignition

prevention”) to prevent explosions inside a fuel tank cau sed by system failures or external

heating of the fuel tank walls. These requirements do not address explosions caused by external

source ignition of fuel vapor present in a fuel system vent outlet and the subsequent propagation

of flame from the vent into the fuel tank. External sources that could cause such ignition inc lude

lightning, ground handling equipment, or ground fire following a survivable crash landing in

which the fuel tank and vent system remain intact.

In this final rule the FAA is adopting an amendment to 14 CFR 25.975 that will require

fuel tank designs wi th the capability to prevent such fuel tank explosions for a minim um of 2

minutes and 30 seconds

. This rule applies to applications for new type certificates and

applications for amended or supplemental type certificates on significant product

- level change s.

The rule does not require retrofit of the existing fleet.

II

. BACKGROUND

The Special Aviation Fire and Explosion Reduction (SAFER) Advisory Committee

,

chartered by the FAA in 1978, found that flame arrestors are as effective as quenching and

suppression systems and supply most of the protection offered by nitrogen inerting systems in

survivable accidents where minor wing tank damage occurs. Moreover, flame arrestors or

suppressors were much more practical than the alternative systems. This remains the ca se today.

For this final rule the FAA will publish an Advisory Cir c u lar for the use of flame arrestors.

I II

. ACRONYMS USED IN THIS DOCUMENT

AC

— Advisory Circular

AD

— Airworthiness Directive

CFR

– Code of Federal Regulations

FAA

– Federal Aviation Administration

## 3

I V

. RESPONSE TO COMMENTS ON THE INITIAL REGULATORY EVALUATION

Boeing stated that there is a substantial risk that many currently

- manufactured flame

arrestor installations would not fully satisfy all parts of the proposed regulation without further

retestin g/redesign and, therefore, that the FAA’s proposed cost assessment is grossly optimistic.

In addition to Boeing’s comment, Lockheed and Embraer commented that they were concerned

that their currently approved flame arrester systems may not comply with the new standard,

which would necessitate redesign of the systems for new production airplanes.

While the FAA believes that most of these systems would not require redesign, the FAA

has concluded that it would not be cost

- effective to require redesign of any e xisting systems that

do not meet the new standard. Therefore, we have revised the provisions of §§ 121.1119 and

129.119 to require FAA

- approved means to prevent fuel tank explosions caused by propagation

of flames from outside the fuel tanks . These section s do not require a new approval for those

systems that have been previously approved. For those airplanes that do not curre ntly have

approved flame arrest ors, the design approval holder would be required to show compliance with

the new standard to obtain a pproval.

EASA supported the proposal but commented that the regulatory evaluation should be

revised to include an additional airplane model, the ATR42/72. EASA noted this airplane model

does not have flame arrestors in the fuel tank vents and would be affe cted by the flame arrestor

requirement for newly manufactured airplanes entering U.S. service under parts 121 and 129.

The FAA does not agree. Certification costs incurred by foreign manufacturers are not

included in U.S. social cost analyses of U.S. regul ations. Costs incurred by U.S. operators of

foreign

- produced airplanes are included in such analyses. For this final rule, however, the FAA

estimates these costs to be minimal for newly produced ATR42/72 airplanes, since the FAA

## 4

expects the annual number o f ATR42/72 deliveries to U.S. operators to be few, if any. The FAA

has no evidence of planned deliveries of ATR42/72 airplanes to U.S. airline operators after 2017,

when the final rule will take effect. Therefore, we have not revised the economic analysis to

include the ATR42/72.

Embraer commented that the proposed rule should apply only to the post

- crash scenario.

In particular, ground operations , such as refueling

, should be excluded from this proposal

because it is already covered by compliance with the requirement of § 25.979 (Pressure fueling

system). Embraer noted that “If the regulation is not revised to limit the applicability of § 25.975

to post

- crash conditions, the cost

- benefit analysis should be revised to reflect the much greater

scope of desig n review, testing, and possible modifications required, i.e., designs previously

approved using issue papers that identified only post

- crash as the applicable condition ....” The

FAA requested specific information from Embraer regarding the additional cost i t would incur if

the rule was not modified. Embraer responded that the Embraer 145 was designed to open a

secondary refueling valve when the airplane is being refueled. While the primary vent outlet at

the wing has flame arrestors, there are no flame arres tors in the secondary vent.

The FAA ha s determined that there are currently no EMB145 orders, or options to order,

for U.S. delivery of EMB145 airplanes. Also, as noted, certification costs incurred by foreign

manufacturers are not included in U. S. social cost analyses of U.S. regulations. Therefore, the

FAA ha s not changed the economic evaluation in response to this comment.

Bombardier commented that “the FAA has provided no evidence of any safety benefit to

this rule ...,” and commented that the FAA cost

- be nefit analysis “is simply an analysis of what

benefit would be necessary to justify the cost of the rulemaking, and no proof that such a benefit

would actually be realized.”

## 5

The FAA cost

- benefit analysis is not simply an analysis of what benefit would be

n ecessary to justify the cost of the rulemaking. More importantly, the analysis points out that

effective and low

- cost means are available to minimize or eliminate the hazard and,

consequently, the benefit required to justify the rule is correspondingly low . Moreover, safety

benefits are shown via the industry recommendations of the SAFER report and the risks

documented in various Airworthiness Directives (ADs) requiring flame arrestors or verification

of their functionality.

V

. DISCUSSION OF COSTS AND BENEF ITS

A. Overview of Costs and Benefits of this Final Rule

The FAA finds the final rule to be cost

- beneficial because the breakeven benefits of

preventing just two fatalities would outweigh the expected costs ($4.9 million in present value

benefits versus $ 4 .4 million in present value costs). If this action is not taken, a hazard would

continue to exist even though effective and low

- cost means are available to minimize or

eliminate it. As the initial regulatory evaluation was unaffected by comments to the NPRM, our

methodology in the final rule remains the same

.

B. Who is Potentially Affected by this Rule?

This rule applies to applicants for new type certificates, amended and supplement al type

certificates involving significant product

- level changes, and manufacturers and operators of

currently certificated airplanes produced two years or more after the effective date of this rule.

This rule does not require retrofit of the existing flee t.

C

. Principal Assumptions and Sources of Information

 Discount rate is 7 percent (Office of Management & Budget, Circular A

- 94, “Guidelines and

Discount Rates for Benefit

- Cost Analysis of Federal Programs,” October 29, 1992, p. 8).

## 6

 Value of statistical li fe (VSL) begins at $ 9.2 million in 2013 , and increases thereafter by an

annual growth factor of 1.0107. Memorandum: Guidance on Treatment of the Economic

Value of a Statistical Life in Department Analyses. [February 2013]. United States, Office of

the Secr etary of Transportation.

 For small part 25 manufacturers: Two U.S. a irplane c erti fications in next 10

- year p eriod

,

t wenty

- one annual U.S. d eliveries per U.S. certification ; t hree foreign airplane c erti fications

in next 10

- year p eriod

, e leven annual U.S. d eliveries per foreign certification ; 15

- year

airplane production r un

, 30

- year retirement a ge

. Internal FAA study. 1



##  Current airplane models that could be affected by production cut

- in re quirement : Bombardier

Dash 8, CJ

- 700, and C J

- 900

. FAA 2013 Fleet Foreca st, Fleet Forecast Sheet “FAA U. S.

Airlines 2013

- 2013 1

- 18

- 2103,” “ Totals & FAA Tables

. ”

 The period of analysis for new certifications is 45 years to account for a complete product

life cycle determined by a 15

- year production period and a 30

- year s ervice period.

 Certification cost estimates for part 25 airplanes

— S mall U.S. part 25 manufacturers.

 Maintenance cost per airplane (every four years) for Bombardier CJ

- 700/CJ

- 900 regional jets

(subject to production cut

- in)

— $240. As this estimate is for passenger airplane models it is

much lower than the estimate provided by U.S. manufacturers ($415 annually) , which is for

business jet models. Since business jets are more prone to sit for extended periods of time,

their flame arrestors can more easily be clogged by ice, mud daubers or other debris , thus

requiring more frequent and l onger maintenance.

1 

### We have derived the number of foreign airplane certifications per 10

- year period from the source and made a slight

correction in the figure for U.S. deliveries per foreign airplane certification.

## 7

 Minimal fuel costs as flame arrestors weigh between 2 and 4 pounds each.

D

. Costs of this Final Rule

As the Initial Regulatory Evaluation was unaffected by comments to the NPRM, the cost

methodology herein is unchanged from that document. The costs of the final rule are

engineering, production, and maintenance compliance costs for newly certificated part 25

airplanes and for new production of currently produced part 25 airplane s used in part 121

operations (production cut

- in). We first estimate compliances costs for new certifications and

then for the production cut

- in.

Compliance Cost of New Certification s

For newly certificated airplanes compliance costs consist of engineering and production

costs of U.S. manufactured airplanes deliv ered to U.S. operators and maintenance costs 2 

## of both

U.S. and foreign airplanes delivered to U.S

. operators. U.S. part 25 m anufacturers directly incur

the engineering and production costs while U.S. operators directly incur the maintenance costs.

Engineering and production costs incurred by foreign manufacturers are not included in the costs

of compliance, as costs directly at tributable to foreign entities are not include d in the cost and

benefit analys is of U.S. regulations.

To calculate the cost of new U.S. certifications, we assume that all new certifications will

be approved one year after the effective date of the rule, wi th production beginning one year

later. Using an airplane life cycle model, we estimate the economic impact for two new

certificates, production of 21 airplane s per certificate per year, production runs of 15 years

, and

an airplane retirement age of 30 yea rs. The costs of new certifications are calculated over an

2 

### As flame arrestors weigh between 2 and 4 pounds each, fue l costs are minimal, so maintenance cost is the only

operating cost estimated.

## 8

airplane life cycle of 45 years (shown in Appendix Table 1). Appendix Table 1 shows 42

deliveries by small U.S. part 25 manufacturers annually beginning in 2017 and exten ding for 15

years through 2 031.

The size of the o perating f leet with new certification is calculated by adding 33 foreign

deliveries to the 42 domestic deliveries annually and accumulating through the production cycle.

So for 2017, the first delivery year, 33 foreign deliveries are added to 42 domestic deliveries

resulting in an operating fleet of 75. Another 75 airplanes are added in 2018, resulting in an

operating fleet of 150. The new certification operating fleet continues to increase by 75 airplanes

annually, peaking at a level of 1,125 airplanes at the end of the production run in 2031. The size

of the new certification operating fleet remains at this peak level until 2047, when it declines by

75, as the first 75 airplanes delivered in 2017 reach their retirement age of 30 years

. Because of

retirement, t he size of the new certification operating fleet continues to decline because of

retirement by 75 airplanes a year reaching zero in 2061 after all airpl anes in the fleet have

retired.

Basic c ost estimates were solicited from small part 25 manufacturers because large

airplane manufacturers (Boeing and Airbus) are already c ompliant with the final rule. These c ost

estimates are shown in Table 1 below

.

T ABLE 1

— INDUSTRY COST ESTIMATES USING FLAME ARRESTORS TO COMPLY

WITH FINAL RULE ($ 2013)



# Cost Category Cost Notes

Nonrecurring Engineering Costs $ 142,000 per model

Recurring Cost (Hardware & Installation) $ 3,000 per model (two flame

arrestors @ $1,500 each)

Maintenance Cost (U.S. manufactured airplanes) $ 415 per airplane annually

Maintenance Cost (Bombardier manufactured airplanes) $ 240 per airplane every 4 years

## 9

The compliance cost estimates consist of nonrecurring ( one

- time ) engineering costs,

production costs for two flame arrestors per airplane (one per fuel tank) and maintenance costs

per airplane per year. The Bombardier maintenance cost estimate will be used later for

estimating production cut

- in costs of compliance

. The se three cost s are incorporated in a life

cycle model from airplane design to retirement of the last airplane

. As flame arrestors weigh

between 2 and 4 pounds each , fuel costs would be minimal, so maintenance cost is the only

operating cost estimated. We received no comments on our assumption that fuel costs would be

minimal.

These cost estimates are used in the airplane life cycle model introduced above. The

assumed two new U.S. certifications in the next ten years results in a total engineering costs of

$284,000. The 42 annual deliveries by small U.S. manufacturers result in $3,000 in hardware

production costs per airplane, for a total of $126,000 annually over the 15

- year production

period

. Annual maintenance costs are calculated by multiplying the s ize of each year’s operating

fleet by the $415 per airplane maintenance cost . For the 75 airplanes in the new certification

operating fleet in 2017

, the maintenance cost is $31,125

. As shown in Appendix Table 1,

m aintenance cost moves in proportion to the new certification operating fleet, rising as the size

of the operating fleet increases and falling as the size of the op erating fleet decreases.

After the initial nonrecurring engineering costs of $284,000 in 2016 , a nnual “Total Cost”

in Appendix Table 1 is the annual sum of hardware production costs and maintenance costs. For

2017 total is $157

, 125 , the sum of $126,000 in hardware production costs and $ 31,125 in

maintenance costs. Annual “PV Cost” in Appendix Table 1 is the discounted value of total cost

,

discounting to the beginning of 2014

. For 2017 this value is $119, 870. Nonrecurring engineering

## 10

costs and totals of the various cost categories over the airplane cycle are shown in in the top part

of Table 2 below

.

C ompliance Costs of Production Cut

- In

In addition to the requirement applying to new certifications, the final rule will also

require a production cut

- in for currently produced part 25 airplanes used in part 121 operations

. 3



## To calculate this cost, we first note that the only currently produced and U.S. operated airplane

models not already in compliance are the Bombardier Dash 8 turboprops and Bombardier CJ

700/ CJ

- 900 regional jets. The final rule will apply to these Bombardier models produced

begin ning in 2018. Since t he FAA forecasts no future Dash 8 deliveries to U.S. airline operators

after 2017 , we expect no Dash 8 compliance cost for these operators

.

T he FAA does forecast the delivery of 338 CRJ

- 700 and 161 CRJ

- 900 model airplanes to

U.S. airline oper ators over the per iod 2018

- 2033. See Appendix Tab le 4

. The engineering and

production compliance costs for these airplanes are not included in our cost estimates because, as

noted above, costs directly incurred by foreign entities are not inclu ded in the cost and benefit

analysis of U.S. regulations. Accordingly, f or these airplanes we assess the impact on U.S.

operators only, using Bombardier ’s maintenance cost estimate of $240 every four years

.

Allocating this cost as $60 annually and assuming a production period of 16 years, we calculate

the production cu t

- in costs for these airplanes as maintenance cost/airplane times the number of

airplanes over their productive life

, using a procedure analogous to th at used for new

certifications

. See Appen dix Table 2. We summarize these results in the bottom part of Table 2

below

.

3 

### We do not estimate costs for the analog ous part 129 requirement as these costs are directly incurred by foreign

operators.

## 11

TABLE 2

— COSTS OF NEW CERTIFICATIONS AND COSTS OF PRODUCTION CUT

- IN

($ 2013)

Cost Categories Total

Undiscounted

Cost PV Cost

Nonrecurring Engineering Costs $ 284,000 $ 231,829

Production Costs (Hardware & Installation) $ 1,890,000 $ 936,781

Operational Costs (Maintenance Costs) $ 14,006,250 $ 3,072,550

Total Costs for New Certification Airplanes $ 16,180,250 $ 4,241,160

Maintenance Costs for Production Cut

- In

Airplanes (CRJ

- 700 & CRJ

- 900) $ 898,200 $ 178,439

Total Costs of the Rule $ 17,078,450 $ 4,419,599

Note: Details may not sum to totals due to rounding

.



## E

. Benefits of this Final Rule

The FAA is employing a break even analysis to assess benefits due to its inability to

determine quantifiable benefits. Owing to the absence of post

- crash fuel tank explosions in

recent years and lacking other quantifiable bases upon which to estimate future risk, t he FAA is

unable to quan tify the likelihood of occurrence

. T he merits of the final rule can be assessed by

first noting that nearly all part 25 airplane manufacturers whose airplanes operate in the U.S. are

already in compliance. Second, we estimate that just two averted fataliti es would offset the costs

of the rule.

We calculated the breakeven benefits of the rule by estimating the number of averted

fatalities necessary to offset the $4.4 million present value costs of the rule. After initially

finding that one averted fatality w as not enough to offset the costs of the rule, we found that two

averted fatalities were sufficient to offset the costs. Our procedure is to first estimate a fatality

rate per airplane year as the number of assumed averted fatalities divided b y the number of

airplane years in the airplane life cycles = 2/48720 = 0.00004105. The assumed benefits for any

year are then equal to this rate times the year’s operating fleet multiplied by the VSL for the

## 12

year. Present value benefits are calculated by discounting ea ch year’s benefits by the 7%

discount factor for the year. Table 3 summarizes the total assumed undiscounted and present

value benefits over the airplane life cycle along with the undiscounted and present value costs

already discussed.

TABLE 3

— TOTAL COSTS OF RULE AND BENEFITS OF

ASSUMING TWO AVERTED FATALITIES ($2013)

Undiscounted PV

Total Costs $ 17.1 $ 4.4

Total Benefits $ 24.5 $ 4.9

This rule would be cost justified if it were to avert as few as two fatalities. If this action is

not taken, a hazard would continue to exist even though effective and low

- cost means are

available to minimize or eliminate it. As noted previously, large airplane manufacturers are

already in compliance with the final rule, having voluntarily provided the level of safety required

by the rule.

## 13 

# APPENDIX

– TABLE 1. COST ESTIMATES FOR NEW CERTIFICATION AIRPLANES ($ 2013)

Event/Count Year US Mfr

Deliveries Retire ments Nonrecur ring

Certi f ication Cost Recurring

Cost

(Hardware) Foreign

Deliveries New Cert.

Opera ting

Fleet Maintenance

Cost Total

Cost PV Cost

2014

Effective Date of Rule 2015

2 Certifications Occur 2016 284,000 284,000 231,829

Deliveries Begin 1 2017 42 126,000 33 75 31,125 157,125 119,870

2 2018 42 126,000 33 150 62,250 188,250 134,220

3 2019 42 126,000 33 225 93,375 219,375 146,179

4 2020 42 126,000 33 300 124,500 250,500 155,999

5 2021 42 126,000 33 375 155,625 281,625 163,908

6 2022 42 126,000 33 450 186,750 312,750 170,115

7 2023 42 126,000 33 525 217,875 343,875 174,809

8 2024 42 126,000 33 600 249,000 375,000 178,160

9 2025 42 126,000 33 675 280,125 406,125 180,324

10 2026 42 126,000 33 750 311,250 437,250 181,443

11 2027 42 126,000 33 825 342,375 468,375 181,644

12 2028 42 126,000 33 900 373,500 499,500 181,042

13 2029 42 126,000 33 975 404,625 530,625 179,741

14 2030 42 126,000 33 1050 435,750 561,750 177,836

15 2031 42 126,000 33 1125 466,875 592,875 175,410

16 2032 1125 466,875 466,875 129,095

17 2033 1125 466,875 466,875 120,649

18 2034 1125 466,875 466,875 112,756

19 2035 1125 466,875 466,875 105,380

20 2036 1125 466,875 466,875 98,486

21 2037 1125 466,875 466,875 92,043

22 2038 1125 466,875 466,875 86,021

23 2039 1125 466,875 466,875 80,394

24 2040 1125 466,875 466,875 75,134



## Note: Present values are calculated by discounting to the beginning of 2014, so the d iscount factor for 2014 is 0.935, etc.

## 14



# APPENDIX

– TABLE 1. COST ESTIMATES FOR NEW CERTIFICATION AIRPLANES ($ 2013)

-- (Continu ed )

Event/Count Year US Mfr

Deliveries R etirements Nonrecurring

Certif ication Cost Recurring

Cost

(Hardware) Foreign

Deliveries New Cert.

Operating

Fleet Maintenance

Cost Total Cost PV Cost

25 2041 1125 466,875 466,875 70,219

26 2042 1125 466,875 466,875 65,625

27 2043 1125 466,875 466,875 61,332

28 2044 1125 466,875 466,875 57,320

29 2045 1125 466,875 466,875 53,570

30 2046 1125 466,875 466,875 50,065

31 2047 75 1050 435,750 435,750 43,671

32 2048 75 975 404,625 404,625 37,898

33 2049 75 900 373,500 373,500 32,694

34 2050 75 825 342,375 342,375 28,009

35 2051 75 750 311,250 311,250 23,797

36 2052 75 675 280,125 280,125 20,016

37 2053 75 600 249,000 249,000 16,628

38 2054 75 525 217,875 217,875 13,598

39 2055 75 450 186,750 186,750 10,893

40 2056 75 375 155,625 155,625 8,484

41 2057 75 300 124,500 124,500 6,343

42 2058 75 225 93,375 93,375 4,446

43 2059 75 150 62,250 62,250 2,770

44 2060 75 75 31,125 31,125 1,294

45 2061 75 0 0 0 0

Total $ 284,000 $ 1,890,000 33,750 $ 14,006,250 $ 16,180,250 $ 4,241,160

Total ($ mil.) $ 0.3 $ 1.9 $ 14.0 $ 16.2 $ 4.2



### Data/Assumptions

Nonrecurring Certification Cost $142,000 Production Period 15 years

Recurring Cost (Hardware)/Airplane $3,000 U.S. Mfr Deliveries/Cert./Year 21

M aintenance Cost/Air plane/Year $ 415 Foreign Deliveries/Year 33

Discount Rate 7% Airplane Retirement Age 30 years

Number of U.S. Certifications (10 years) 2

## 15 

# APPENDIX

– TABLE 2. COST ESTIMATES FOR BO MBARDIER CRJ

- 700/900

PRODUCTION CUT

- IN AIRPLANES ($ 2013)

Year CRJ US

Deliveries CRJ

Retirements CRJ

Operating

Fleet CRJ

Maintenance

Cost CRJ PV

Maintenance

Cost Year CRJ US

Deliveries CRJ

Retirements CRJ

Operating

Fleet CRJ

Maintenance

Cost CRJ PV

Maintenance

Cost

20 14

2015

2016

2017

2018 34 34 2,040 1,454 2041 499 29,940 4,503

2019 27 61 3,660 2,439 2042 499 29,940 4,208

2020 26 87 5,220 3,251 2043 499 29,940 3,933

2021 21 108 6,480 3,771 2044 499 29,940 3,676

2022 22 130 7,800 4,243 2045 499 29,940 3,435

2023 42 172 10,320 5,246 2046 499 29,940 3,211

2024 37 209 12,540 5,958 2047 499 29,940 3,001

2025 36 245 14,700 6,527 2048 34 465 27,900 2,613

2026 39 284 17,040 7,071 2049 27 438 26,280 2,300

2027 41 325 19,500 7,562 2050 26 412 24,720 2,022

2028 38 363 21,780 7,894 2051 21 391 23,460 1,794

2029 28 391 23,460 7,947 2052 22 369 22,140 1,582

2030 29 420 25,200 7,978 2053 42 327 19,620 1,310

2031 29 449 26,940 7,971 2054 37 290 17,400 1,086

2032 24 473 28,380 7,847 2055 36 254 15,240 889

2033 26 499 29,940 7,737 2056 39 215 12,900 703

2034 499 29,940 7,231 2057 41 174 10,440 532

2035 499 29,940 6,758 2058 38 136 8,160 389

2036 499 29,940 6,316 2059 28 108 6,480 288

2037 499 29,940 5,903 2060 29 79 4,740 197

2038 499 29,940 5,516 2061 29 50 3,000 117

2039 499 29,940 5,156 2062 24 26 1,560 57

2040 499 29,940 4,818 2063 26 0 0 0

Total 499 499 $898,200 $178,439

## 16 

# APPENDIX

– TABLE 3 . BENEFITS ASSUMING TWO AVERTED FATALITIES ($ 2013)

Year US New

Cert.

Deliv

eries Retire

ments Foreign

New Cert.

Deliv

ies Bombard

ier Pdn

Cut

- In

Deliveries Operat

ing Fleet VSL

Income

Growth

Factor VSL

($ mil.) Benefits

($) PV

Benefits

($) Year Retire

ments Operat

ing

Fleet VSL

Income

Growth

Factor VSL

($ mil.) Benefits

($) PV

Benefits

($)

2017 42 33 75 1.043 9.6 29,557 22,549

2018 42 33 34 184 1.066 9.8 74,073 52,813

2019 42 33 27 286 1.077 9.9 116,368 77,541

2020 42 33 26 387 1.089 10.0 159,147 99,109 2041 1624 1.347 12.4 826,266 124,272

2021 42 33 21 483 1.101 10.1 200,751 116,839 2042 1624 1.362 12.5 835,107 117,385

2022 42 33 22 580 1.112 10.2 243,647 132,528 2043 1624 1.376 12.7 844,043 110,879

2023 42 33 42 697 1.124 10.3 295,929 150,436 2044 1624 1.391 12.8 853,074 104,734

2024 42 33 37 809 1.136 10.5 347,157 164,932 2045 1624 1.406 12.9 862,202 98,930

2025 42 33 36 920 1.148 10.6 399,014 177,167 2046 1624 1.421 13.1 871,428 93,447

2026 42 33 39 1034 1.161 10.7 453,255 188,085 2047 75 1549 1.436 13.2 840,077 84,192

2027 42 33 41 1150 1.173 10.8 509,498 197,592 2048 109 1440 1.451 13.4 789,319 73,930

2028 42 33 38 1263 1.186 10.9 565,549 204,981 2049 102 1338 1.467 13.5 741,256 64,886

2029 42 33 28 1366 1.198 11.0 618,215 209,411 2050 101 1237 1.483 13.6 692,634 56,664

2030 42 33 29 1470 1.211 11.1 672,401 212,865 2051 96 1141 1.498 13.8 645,717 49,370

2031 42 33 29 1574 1.224 11.3 727,676 215,293 2052 97 1044 1.514 13.9 597,144 42,669

2032 24 1598 1.237 11.4 746,677 206,462 2053 117 927 1.531 14.1 535,896 35,787

2033 26 1624 1.250 11.5 766,945 198,193 2054 112 815 1.547 14.2 476,191 29,720

2034 1624 1.264 11.6 775,151 187,209 2055 111 704 1.564 14.4 415,737 24,249

2035 1624 1.277 11.8 783,445 176,834 2056 114 590 1.580 14.5 352,144 19,196

2036 1624 1.291 11.9 791,828 167,034 2057 116 474 1.597 14.7 285,936 14,567

2037 1624 1.305 12.0 800,301 157,777 2058 113 361 1.614 14.9 220,100 10,480

2038 1624 1.319 12.1 808,864 149,033 2059 103 258 1.632 15.0 158,984 7,075

2039 1624 1.333 12.3 817,519 140,773 2060 104 154 1.649 15.2 95,913 3,989

2040 1624 1.347 12.4 826,266 132,971 2061 104 50 1.667 15.3 31,474 1,223

2062 24 26 1.685 15.5 16,542 601

2063 26 0 1.703 15.7 0 0

Total 630 495 499 1624 48,720 $24,499,878 $4,906,071



## Note s : 1. Present values are calculated by discounting to the beginning of 2014, so the discount factor for 2014 is 0.935, etc. 2. Details may not add up to

totals due to round ing.

## 17



# APPENDIX

– TABLE 4 . FAA FORECAST OF DELIVERIES OF CJ700/CJ900 AIRPLANES TO U.S AIRLINE OPERATORS

Year 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 Total

2018

-

2033 Average

2018

-

2033

CRJ

- 700 24 17 19 14 15 33 28 29 28 30 27 16 15 17 12 14 338 21

CRJ

- 900 10 10 7 7 7 9 9 7 11 11 11 12 14 12 12 12 161 10



### Source: FAA 2013 Fleet Forecast