Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight

OE ENERGY

MARKET SNAPSHOT

National – Data Through October 2018

Office of Enforcement

Federal Energy Regulatory Commission

November 2018
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight

2018/2019 Winter Assessment

2
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight

Introduction

 NOAA forecasts a warmer than average winter.

 Regional pipeline constraints in New York City, Boston, and Los Angeles 

increase the risk of price volatility.

 Winter reserve margins exceed the reference margins this winter for all 

assessment areas.

 Fuel security remains an area of focus given the increasing use of natural 

gas-fired generation capacity.
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight

Recap of 2018 Winter Weather 

Events

The Eastern Interconnection experienced cold weather during the 

Bomb Cyclone from December 26 to January 8.

 ISO-NE, NYISO, PJM, and MISO experienced high but not 

record loads. 

 Natural gas prices reached record levels.

 There was a notable increase in oil-fired generation.

 Generator outages contributed to tight electric supplies.

 Wholesale electricity prices were at high levels throughout this 

cold period.

 MISO South and SPP approached a short-term capacity 

shortage.
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight

Forecasts Predict Warmer than Normal 

Winter

Source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight

Natural Gas Storage Well Below Five-Year 

Average

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight

Natural Gas Futures in New England Top 

$11 for 2018-2019 Winter

Source: InterContintental Exchange

Futures prices are the average January and February contract price of each year as of Oct. 1.
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight

11 Bcfd of New Capacity Expected Online 

This Winter

Sources: Office of Energy Projects, Bentek Energy

7.2 Bcfd

1.5 Bcfd

13.2 Bcfd

3.8 Bcfd

4.3 Bcfd

5.6 Bcfd

0.8 Bcfd

0.04 Bcfd

Total Pipeline Capacity Additions

2016 to 2018: 25.5 Bcfd

Winter 2018-19: 10.9 Bcfd
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight

Gas Infrastructure Restrictions May 

Stress California Energy Markets 

Source: SoCalGas

Discovery of Aliso Canyon Leak
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight

Most Gas-Oil Switching Occurs in the 

Eastern Interconnection

Sources: Derived from ABB Velocity Suite data.
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight

Northeast Dual-Fuel Generators Hedge Gas Volatility

Sources: Platts Gas Daily Indices; Bloomberg, EIA

Fuel Oil prices are Month Ahead Bloomberg Fair Value Prices 
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight

Anticipated Reserve Margins 

Meet Reference Margins in All Regions

Source: North American Electric Reliability Corporation, Draft 2018-2019 Winter Reliability Assessment

Note: WECC and NPCC includes U.S. portion only
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight

New Plants and Retirements Continue Shift Toward 

Natural Gas and Renewables

Source: U.S Energy Information Administration, Form No. 860M, June 2018

Note: Based on net winter capacity. Planned is all changes with effective dates October 2018-March 2019; excludes AK and HI.

Additions

Retirements
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight

Natural Gas Has a High Share of Capacity in RTO 

and Non-RTO Regions

Source: Resource to BAA mappings are as reported by EIA in Form 860M, June 2018.

Note: Percentages based on net winter capacity; excludes AK, HI, and resources that do not report a BAA. Includes 

resources with status of operating and standby. 
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight

ISO-NE’s Capacity Market Was Modified 

in Response to Fuel Delivery Issues

 Dependence on natural gas for power generation continues to 

increase.

 Pipeline capacity is limited and frequently operates at maximum 

capacity during cold weather.

 New England has limited natural gas storage capacity.

 Price responsive demand is fully integrated into the daily energy 

market. 

 Pay-for-performance capacity market incentives take effect, 

replacing the Winter Reliability Program.
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight

National Slides

16
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight 17

NOAA November 2018 Through January 2019 Outlook
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight

2181

Pitts

burgh

Boston

Calgary

City Location

Chicago

NYC

Oklahoma

City

Los Dallas

Angeles

Sacra

mento Denver

Portland

Houston New 

Orleans Miami

Vancouver

2018

2017

2011 - 2016

Cumulative HDDs by City

October 2018

Source: Bloomberg Weather (daily data summed)

Atlanta

Updated

18

Nov-2018

 -

 -

 -

 404

 241

 359

 -

 21

 8

 404

 233

 360

 228

 183

 180

 91

 58

 72

 18

 25

 22

 428

 395

 431

 482

 456

 473

 254

 253

 264

 263

 325

 341

 30

 70

 152

 273

 97

 244

 346

 143

 339

 -

 -

 36

 122

 137

 136
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight

$ = Average YTD 2018 monthly

day-ahead on-peak price

% = Percent increase from 2017 YTD = 

Source: RTO/ISO data and SNL Day-ahead Prices

NP 15

$40

4% Palo Verde

$40

18.1%

MidColumbia

$34

32%

Indiana 

Hub

$38

8.5%

SPP

North

$29

15.5%

ERCOT

North

$42

56%

PJM West

$42

26.2%

NYISO ZJ

$46

23.2%

Mass Hub

$48

38.9%

Into 

Southern

$31

3%

2018 Spot Power Prices ($/MWh)
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight

2181

Columbia

TCO

Algonquin

Citygate

AECO 

Pricing Point

BOLD – This Year

Green – % increase from 

previous year

Red – % decrease from 

previous year

Chicago

Citygate

Transco

Z6-NY

NGPL

Tex-Okla

El Paso

Permian

SoCal 

Border

PG&E

Citygate

CIG

HSC

Henry 

Hub

FGT-Z3

Spot Natural Gas Prices Average ($/MMBtu)

October 2018

Source: Platts Updated

20

Nov-2018 $3.24

15%

$ 2.91

22%

$3.66

18%

$1.61

80%

$3.24

13%

$3.23

16%

$2.60

0%

$1.99

-19%

$3.50

20%

$1.24

64%

$2.92

15%

$3.75

20%

$4.04

6%
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2016/2017 2017/2018 Average Daily Volume (Bcfd)

US Natural Gas Demand

Power 

Generation

Total Change in Demand:

Industrial

8.6%

Residential/ 

Commercial

12.3%

4.2%

8.8%

Mexican Exports

LNG Exports

62.4%

12.3%

U.S. NG Supply and Demand 

November 2016 – October 2017 vs November 2017 – October 2018

National Natural Gas Market Overview: U.S. Supply and Consumption

Note: Balance includes all amounts not attributable to other categories.

Source: Derived from Bentek Energy data

2163

21

Updated

Nov-2018

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2016/2017 2017/2018

US Natural Gas Supply

LNG Imports

Canadian 

Imports

Net Dry Gas

Production

11.1%

2.1%

10.4%

Total Change in Supply: 9.9%
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight

National Natural Gas Market Overview: Canadian Imports

Regional Imports from Canada

Source: Derived from Bentek Energy data

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 May-15 Sep-15 Jan-16 May-16 Sep-16 Jan-17 May-17 Sep-17 Jan-18 May-18 Sep-18 Bcfd

Northwest Net Imports

Midwest Net Imports

Northeast Net Imports

22

Updated

Nov-2018
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight

Total U.S. Natural Gas Demand All Sectors

National Natural Gas Market Overview: Total US Gas Demand

Source: Derived from Bentek Energy data, derived from interstate pipeline flow and modeled data.

20009

 -

 20

 40

 60

 80

 100

 120

 140

 160

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Bcfd

2013-17 Range 2018

23

Updated

Nov-2018
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight

U.S. Natural Gas Consumption for Power Generation

National Natural Gas Market Overview: NG Consumption for Power Generation

Source: Derived from Bentek Energy data

20024

24

Updated

Nov-2018

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000 MMcfd

 2013 - 2017 Range

2018
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight

EIA National Storage Inventories

National Natural Gas Market Overview: Natural Gas Storage Inventory

Source: Derived from Bloomberg Data

Notes:

Updated

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Storage (Bcf)

5 Year Range 2018-2019 2017-2018

Nov-2018

25
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight

EIA Regional Storage Inventories

National Natural Gas Market Overview: Natural Gas Storage Inventory

Source: Derived from Bloomberg Data

Notes:

Updated

Nov-2018

26

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

EAST 0

500

1,000

1,500

WEST

0

100

200

300

Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar

5 Year Range 2018-2019 2017-2018

PRODUCING

0

100

200

300

400

500

PACIFIC

0

500

1,000

1,500

SOUTH CENTRAL
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight

Monthly U.S. Dry Gas Production – Lower 48 States

National Natural Gas Market Overview: Monthly U.S. Dry Gas Production

Note: Prior to July 2010, chart was derived from a combination of EIA and Bentek Energy data

Source: Derived from Bentek Energy data

20021

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90 Bcfd

Dry Production

27

Updated

Nov-2018
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight

Rigs by Type

National Natural Gas Market Overview: Rig Count by Type

Source: Derived from Bloomberg data

Notes:

Updated 0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Baker Hughes Rig Count (Rigs)

Oil Rigs Gas Rigs

28

Nov-2018
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight

Competing Fuels

National Natural Gas Market Overview: Competing Fuels

Source: Derived from Bloomberg data

Notes:

Updated$0.0

$2.0

$4.0

$6.0

$8.0

$10.0

$12.0

$14.0

$0.0

$0.5

$1.0

$1.5

$2.0

$2.5

$3.0

$3.5

$4.0

$4.5

$5.0 Oct-16 Dec-16 Feb-17 Apr-17 Jun-17 Aug-17 Oct-17 Dec-17 Feb-18 Apr-18 Jun-18 Aug-18 Oct-18 Converted Oil Price ($/MMBtu) Gas and Converted Coal Price ($/MMBtu)

Nymex Henry Hub

Big Sandy Barge (Low Sulfur Coal)

WTI Crude Oil Nov-2018

29
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight

Daily Gas Sendout from Existing U.S. LNG Facilities

National Natural Gas Market Overview: LNG Market-Daily Gas Sendout

Notes: Everett data includes flows onto the AGT and TGP interstate lines, plus estimates of flows to the Mystic 7 power plant, Keyspan Boston 

Gas, and LNG trucked out of the terminal. Excludes flows to the Freeport LNG which flows via intrastate pipelines and flows to the Mystic 8 and 

9 power plants.

Source: Derived from Bentek Energy data

3007

30

Updated

Nov-2018

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000 Daily LNG Sendout (MMcfd)

Sabine Pass

Lake Charles

Golden Pass

Freeport

Northeast Gateway

Excelerate

Cameron

Elba Island

Cove Point

Everett (Modeled)

Neptune

0

1,000

2,000

3,000 Monthly Average
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight

Daily LNG Exports

National Natural Gas Market Overview: LNG Market-Daily LNG Exports

Notes: Everett data includes flows onto the AGT and TGP interstate lines, plus estimates of flows to the Mystic 7 power plant, Keyspan Boston 

Gas, and LNG trucked out of the terminal. Excludes flows to the Freeport LNG which flows via intrastate pipelines and flows to the Mystic 8 and 

9 power plants.

Source: Derived from Bentek Energy data

3007

31

Updated

Nov-2018

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5 Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 Nov-17 Jan-18 Mar-18 May-18 Jul-18 Sep-18 Bcfd

Sabine Pass Cove Point Corpus Christi
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight

Source: Waterborne Energy, Inc. Data in $US/MMBtu

Note: Includes information and Data supplied by IHS Global Inc. and its affiliates (“IHS”); Copyright (publication year) all rights reserved.

Landed prices are the monthly average of weekly trades from the prior month.

World LNG Estimated Landed Prices:

National Natural Gas Market Overview: World LNG Landed Prices

Cove Point

$4.50

India

$11.55

UK

$8.75

Spain

$9.05

Belgium

$8.84

Japan

$12.40

Korea

$12.40

Lake Charles

$3.96 Altamira

$4.60

Cove Point

$4.40

India

$11.55

UK

$8.75

Spain

$9.15

Belgium

$8.99

Japan

$13.10

Korea

$13.10

Lake Charles

$3.93 Altamira

$4.57

Cove Point

$4.50

India

$11.55

UK

$8.75

Spain

$9.05

Belgium

$8.84

Japan

$12.40

Korea

$12.40

Lake Charles

$3.96 Altamira

$4.60

Cove Point

India

UK

Spain

Belgium

Korea

Lake Charles

Altamira

Bahia Blanca

Canaport

China

32

Updated

Nov-2018 $3.70 $10.71 $10.86 $10.86 $10.13 $ 6.67$9.46 $ 9.39 $10.81 $10.75 $3.07 Oct-18
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight

Historical and World Gas Futures Prices

National Natural Gas Market Overview: LNG Competitive Price Hubs

Source: Derived from Bloomberg data 

Notes:

Updated

Nov-2018

$0

$2

$4

$6

$8

$10

$12

$14

$16

$18

$20 Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 Nov-17 Jan-18 Mar-18 May-18 Jul-18 Sep-18 Nov-18 Jan-19 Mar-19 May-19 Jul-19 Sep-19 Nov-19 $/MMBtu

Henry Hub TZ6 NY

Algonquin Citygates UKNBP

Japanese LNG Spot Price Futures Prices

33
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight

National Natural Gas Market Overview: WTI vs Brent Oil Price

Source: Derived from Bloomberg data Updated

WTI vs Brent Crude Oil Price

Nov-2018

$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

$80

$90

$100 Oil Prices ($/Barrel)

WTI Oil Price Brent Crude Oil Price

34
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight

National Natural Gas Market Overview: Nymex Futures Curve

Source: Derived from Bloomberg data Updated

Nymex Futures Curves

$2.45

$2.55

$2.65

$2.75

$2.85

$2.95

$3.05

$3.15

$3.25

$3.35

$3.45

Dec-18 Jun-19 Dec-19 Jun-20 Nymex Futures Curves ($/MMBtu)

10/31/2017 10-3-2018 6-2-2018 10-31-2018

Nov-2018

35
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight

Infrastructure Report

36

Office of Energy Projects Energy 

Infrastructure Update

http://www.ferc.gov/legal/staff-reports.asp

(see “Energy Infrastructure” tab) 
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight

Natural Gas Highlights

39

Status No. of 

Projects

Storage 

Capacity 

(Bcf)

Deliverability 

(MMcf/d)

Capacity 

(MMcf/d)

Miles of 

Pipeline

Compression 

(HP)

Pipeline

Placed in Service 1 0 5 0

Certificated 3 254 3 3,000

Proposed 1 14 19 0

Storage

Placed in Service 0 0 0 0

Certificated 0 0 0 0

Proposed 0 0 0 0

LNG (Import & Export)

Placed in Service 

(Export) 0 0 0 0

Certificated 

(Import/Export) 0 0 0 0

Proposed 

(Import/Export) 0 0 0 0

Natural Gas Activities through September 30, 2018

January through September 30, 2017

Status No. of

Projects

Storage 

Capacity

(BCF)

Deliverability 

(MMcf/d)

Capacity 

(MMcf/d)

Miles of 

Pipeline

Compression 

(HP)

Pipeline

Placed in Service 10 4,716.2 105.5 183,800

through September 30, 2017 18 5,295.9 478.0 312,429

Certificated 42 8,682.1 643.0 284,095

through September 30, 2017 27 14,923.1 1,556.1 1,039,667

Storage

Placed in Service 0 0.0 0.0 0

through September 30, 2017 1 7.5 600.0 9,500

Certificated 4 3,600.3 152.0 0

through September 30, 2017 1 0.0 10.0 0

LNG (Import & Export)

Placed in Service (Export) 1 0.0 825.0 0

through September 30, 2017 2 0.0 793.0 0

Certificated (Import/Export) 0 0.0 0.0 0

through September 30, 2017 0 0.0 0.0 0

Source: Staff Database
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight

Electric Generation Highlights

40

September 2018

January – September 2018

Cumulative

January – September 2017

Cumulative

Primary Fuel Type No. of 

Units

Installed 

Capacity (MW)

No. of 

Units

Installed 

Capacity (MW)

No. of 

Units

Installed 

Capacity (MW)

Coal 0 0 4 10 0 0

Natural Gas 0 0 68 12,110 79 11,100

Nuclear 0 0 1 4 1 102

Oil 0 0 11 18 18 53

Water 0 0 10 33 12 215

Wind 3 363 32 2,747 55 4,615

Biomass 0 0 11 66 25 265

Geothermal Steam 0 0 2 21 1 18

Solar 9 339 310 3,043 433 3,450

Waste Heat 0 0 2 80 1 220

Other * 1 0 18 5 24 1

Total 13 702 469 18,137 649 20,039

 *“Other” includes purchased steam, tires, and miscellaneous technology such as batteries, fuel cells, energy storage, and fly wheel.

Sources: Data derived from Velocity Suite, ABB Inc. and The C Three Group LLC. The data may be subject to update. 

New Generation In-Service (New Build and Expansion)
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight

Electric Transmission Highlights

41

Transmission Projects Completed Proposed Transmission Projects

In-Service by October 2020

Voltage 

(kV)

September

2018

September

2017

January – September

2018 Cumulative

January – September

2017 Cumulative

High Probability 

of Completion All

Line Length (miles)

≤230 0.0 6.0 231.7 329.3 762.3 2,076.5

345 0.0 0.0 413.2 218.5 1,882.6 4,030.6

500 0.0 0.0 69.4 0.0 371.0 1,227.4

Total 

U.S. 0.0 6.0 714.3 547.8 3,015.9 7,334.5

 Sources: Data derived from Staff Database and U.S. Electric Transmission Projects ©2018 The C Three Group, LLC. 
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight

Installed Generating Capacity and 

Proposed Additions

40