TSD - aa

Trends in Measured 1-hr Ozone Concentrations over the OTR

modeling domain

Bureau of Air Quality Analysis and Research

Division of Air Resources

New York State Department of Environmental Conservation

Albany, NY 12233

1
Ozone Trend Analysis

Trends in raw and meteorologically adjusted 1-hour ozone were calculated at several

AQS monitoring sites in the Northeast. A summary of the analysis is provided below,

and a detailed description of the met-adjustment procedure is outlined in Milanchus et al.

(1998) and references contained including those related to the Kolmogorov-Zurbenko

(KZ) method used in this analysis to estimate trends.

Data

Ozone time series were obtained at many monitoring sites in the Northeastern United

States. From these data, log of daily maximum one hour ozone were calculated. In

addition, several meteorological variables were obtained from National Weather service

stations in the Northeast. These included surface temperature, dew point and specific

humidity with dew point depression being calculated. Daily maximum values were

calculated for each of the meteorological variable times series. The time span of data

considered for both ozone and meteorological variables was from 1985 to 2005. In

addition, this analysis focused on the ozone season (April 15 through October 15) of each

year.

Summary of Trend analysis

In calculating raw ozone trends, a KZ365,3 filter was applied to the log of daily

maximum ozone time series to obtain the long-term trend component. A linear regression

is then performed to get the trend estimate.

For the met-adjusted trends, the time series of ozone and meteorological variables must

first be separated into the baseline and short-term time scales. A KZ15,5 was used for this

separation. The effects of meteorology are then removed from these components

independently. Applying the KZ15,5 filter to the raw data (log of daily maximum ozone

and daily maximum met. variables) produces the baseline component. The short term

component is then obtained by subtracting the baseline from the raw data. For this

analysis, temperature and dew point depression were removed from the short-term

component, while temperature and specific humidity were removed from the baseline

component.

Once the baseline and short-term components are isolated a multiple least squares

regression is performed on each component with the respective meteorological

components. Next, the residuals from the multiple regression on the short-term are added

to the residuals from the baseline to get the met-adjusted ozone time series. A KZ365,3

filter is then applied to the met-adjusted ozone to get the long-term component of metadjusted ozone. A linear regression is then applied to the long-term met-adjusted ozone to

get a trend estimate and 95% confidence interval. Trend values that are negative represent

a decreasing trend in ozone, while positive values indicate an upward trend. In this

analysis, trends were calculated for 3 different time periods; 1985 to 2005, 1990 to 2005

and 1995 to 2005. Only trends that were significant at the 95% confidence level were

2
reported. Tables 1to 3 list the raw and met-adjusted trends for each of these time

periods over the OTR. The total number of ozone monitors varied in these time periods,

as there were often changes in the location of the monitor due to operational logistics.

Figures 1a and 1b provide a graphical representation of the trends for the 1990 to 2005

time period. 

Results

Trends in both raw and meteorologically adjusted ozone are found to vary substantially

over different time periods and from location to location. Trends were calculated for all

ozone monitors located within the modeling domain, although the following discussion is

focused on the New York CMSA, and that similar analysis could be performed for other

areas of the OTR. In general, there is a decreasing trend in raw ozone over the New York,

New Jersey and Connecticut area for all the time periods considered. Monitors in New

York tend to show more decreasing trends when consideration is given to the longer time

period of 1985 to 2005, and less for the shorter period of 1995 to 2005. Only one

monitor in New Jersey continues to show an increasing trend in raw ozone levels

irrespective of the 3 time periods, while Connecticut has the highest number of monitors

that display an increasing trend particularly for the 1990 to 2005 period.

When meteorologically adjusted ozone is considered, the general trend over the tri-state

area is one of decreasing ozone. The majority of New York monitors show decreasing

trends in met-adjusted ozone with the most being in the 1985 to 2005 and 1995 to 2005

time periods and the least during the 1990 to 2005 time period. As with raw ozone

concentrations, New Jersey has only one monitor showing an upward trend and only for

the 1990 to 2005 time period. Monitors in Connecticut show a general downward trend

in met-adjusted ozone with the majority of these occurring in the 1985 to 2005 time

period and the least in the 1990 to 2005 period. Although we see a fairly consistent

decrease in both raw and meteorologically adjusted ozone, it is not uncommon to see

trends of different magnitude or even trend directions in nearby monitors that is probably

a reflection of differences in emissions and titration effects on ozone. 

Reference:

Milanchus et al., (1998) “Evaluating the effectiveness of ozone management efforts in the

presence of meteorological variability”, JA&WMA, 48, 201-215.

3
Table 1 Raw and Met-adjusted trends in 1-hr ozone concentrations over the OTR for 1985-2005 ozone seasons

 

STATE AIRS ID STATION LOCATION RAW TRENDS

MET-ADJUSTED

TRENDS

Slope

95%

CI Slope 95% CI

(%/yr) (%/yr)

CT 90010017 GREENWICH GREENWICH POINT PARK -0.118 0.015 -0.234 0.017

CT 90011123 DANBURY TRAILER, W. CONNECTICUT STATE UNIVERSITY 0.041 0.019 -0.083 0.021

CT 90013007 STRATFORD USCG LIGHTHOUSE , PROSPECT STREET -0.558 0.017 -0.823 0.019

CT 90031003 E. HARTFORD MCAULIFFEE PARK 0.395 0.019 0.422 0.014

CT 90070007 MIDDLETOWN CONN. VALLEY HOSP., SHEW HALL, EASTERN D -0.097 0.014 -0.197 0.011

CT 90093002 MADISON HAMMONASSET STATE PARK 0.056 0.015

CT 90110008 GROTON UNIVERSITY OF CONNECTICUT, AVERY POINT -0.758 0.015 -0.807 0.019

CT 90131001 STAFFORD ROUTE 190, SHENIPSIT STATE FOREST -0.176 0.015 -0.218 0.013

DC 110010025 NOT IN A CITY TAKOMA SC. PINEY BRANCH RD & DAHLIA ST N -0.464 0.022 -0.191 0.015

ME 230052003

CAPE

ELIZABETH TWO LIGHTS STATE PARK -0.943 0.014 -0.847 0.013

ME 230312002 NOT IN A CITY OCEAN AVE/PARSONS WAY, KENNEBUNKPORT -0.794 0.016 -0.712 0.013

MD 240030014 NOT IN A CITY QUEEN ANNE AND WAYSON ROADS -0.904 0.024 -0.698 0.019

MD 240051007 COCKEYSVILLE GREENSIDE DRIVE COCKEYSVILLE MD -0.596 0.015 -0.326 0.010

MD 240053001 ESSEX WOODWARD & DORSEY RDS ,ESSEX MD -0.493 0.014 -0.221 0.012

MD 240130001 NOT IN A CITY 1300 W. OLD LIBERTY ROAD, WINFIELD,MD -0.841 0.014 -0.566 0.010

MD 240170010 NOT IN A CITY SO MD CORRECTIONAL CAMP, HUGHESVILLE -0.780 0.020 -0.557 0.015

MD 240251001 EDGEWOOD EDGEWOOD ARMY CHEM CENTER EDGEWOOD -0.537 0.016 -0.296 0.016

MD 240313001 ROCKVILLE LOTHROP E SMITH ENV.ED CENTER ROCKVILLE -0.604 0.022 -0.441 0.018

MA 250010002 TRURO FOX BOTTOM AREA-CAPE COD NAT'L SEA SHR 0.029 0.018 -0.312 0.020

MA 250051002 FAIRHAVEN LEROY WOOD SCHOOL -0.186 0.019 -0.301 0.020

MA 250130008 CHICOPEE ANDERSON ROAD AIR FORCE BASE -0.201 0.019 -0.072 0.016

4
MA 250154002 WARE QUABBIN SUMMIT -0.520 0.015 -0.576 0.014

NH 330050007 KEENE RAILROAD STREET -0.140 0.036 -0.360 0.005

NH 330190003 CLAREMONT SOUTH STREET 0.390 0.068 0.210 0.037

NJ 340010005 NOT IN A CITY BRIGANTINE WILDLIFE REFUGE,NACOTE CREEK -0.999 0.020 -0.914 0.020

NJ 340070003 NOT IN A CITY COPEWOOD E. DAVIS STS; TRAILER -0.692 0.021 -0.729 0.020

NJ 340071001 NOT IN A CITY ANCORA STATE HOSPITAL, ANCORA -0.838 0.014 -0.752 0.016

NJ 340110007 NOT IN A CITY LINCOLN AVE.&HIGHWAY 55,NE OF MILLVILLE -0.767 0.014 -0.551 0.015

NJ 340150002 NOT IN A CITY CLARKSBORO,SHADY LANE REST HOME -0.686 0.011 -0.580 0.012

NJ 340170006 BAYONNE VETERANS PARK ON NEWARK BAY -0.988 0.014 -0.784 0.015

NJ 340190001 FLEMINGTON RARITAN STP,RTE.613S, THREE BRIDGES -0.326 0.013 -0.118 0.016

NJ 340210005 NOT IN A CITY RIDER COLLEGE;LAWRENCE TOWNSHIP -0.825 0.014 -0.753 0.012

NJ 340273001 NOT IN A CITY BLDG.#1, BELL LABS, OFF ROUTE 513 -0.823 0.015 -0.645 0.017

NY 360010012 ALBANY LOUDONVILLE RESERVOIR 0.169 0.010

NY 360150003 ELMIRA SULLIVAN ST., WATER TR. PL. -0.056 0.017 0.036 0.016

NY 360290002 AMHERST AUDUBON GOLF COURSE, MAPLE ROAD 0.066 0.027 0.334 0.027

NY 360310002 NOT IN A CITY SUMMIT,WHITEFACE MTN,WEATHER STATION -0.319 0.012 -0.376 0.027

NY 360310003 NOT IN A CITY BASE WHITEFACE MTN,ASRC,SUNY -0.528 0.026 -0.441 0.025

NY 360450002 NOT IN A CITY VADAI ROAD, PERCH RIVER, BROWNVILLE -0.147 0.024 -0.255 0.024

NY 360631006 NOT IN A CITY MIDDLEPORT STP, NORTH HARTLAND RD -0.317 0.017 -0.059 0.017

NY 360850067 NEW YORK CITY SUSAN WAGNER HS, , -0.643 0.018 -0.399 0.022

NY 360930003 SCHENECTADY MT.PLEASANT HS, -0.123 0.016 0.016 0.011

NY 361030002 BABYLON EAST FARMINGDALE WATER DIST.,GAZZA BLVD. -0.315 0.018 -0.678 0.014

NY 361030004 RIVERHEAD 39 SOUND AVENUE,RIVERHEAD -0.163 0.051 -0.089 0.038

NY 361173001 NOT IN A CITY WAYNE EDUCATIONAL CENTER, WILLIAMSON -0.929 0.020 -0.618 0.016

NY 361192004 WHITE PLAINS WHITE PLAINS PUMP STATION,ORCHARD STREET -0.424 0.018 -0.330 0.018

PA 420030008 PITTSBURGH BAPC 301 39TH STREET BLDG #7 0.148 0.034 0.678 0.031

PA 420030067 NOT IN A CITY OLD OAKDALE ROAD SOUTH FAYETTE 0.879 0.037 1.204 0.035

PA 420070014 BEAVER FALLS EIGHT STREET AND RIVER ALLEY -0.251 0.016 0.121 0.015

PA 420110009 READING UGI CO MONGANTOWN RD AND PROSPECT ST -0.304 0.016 -0.269 0.014

5
PA 420130801 ALTOONA 2ND AVE & 7TH ST -0.207 0.016 0.141 0.014

PA 420170012 BRISTOL (BORO) ROCKVIEW LANE -0.609 0.012 -0.522 0.015

PA 420210011 NOT IN A CITY MILLER AUTO SHOP 1 MESSENGER ST -0.020 0.018 0.327 0.017

PA 420430401 HARRISBURG 1833 UPS DRIVE HARRISBURG PA -0.188 0.017 -0.130 0.013

PA 420431100 HERSHEY SIPE AVE & MAE STREET -0.297 0.017 -0.279 0.014

PA 420450002 CHESTER FRONT ST & NORRIS ST -0.585 0.014 -0.379 0.015

PA 420692006 SCRANTON GEORGE ST TROOP AND CITY OF SCRANTON -0.163 0.017 -0.218 0.017

PA 420710007

LANCASTER

CITY ABRAHAM LINCOLN JR HIGH GROFFTOWN RD 0.178 0.020 0.265 0.019

PA 420730015 NEW CASTLE CROTON ST & JEFFERSON ST. -0.091 0.014 0.112 0.014

PA 420770004 ALLENTOWN STATE HOSPITAL REAR 1600 HANOVER AVE -0.054 0.017 -0.056 0.018

PA 420791100 NANTICOKE 255 LOWER BROADWAY -0.073 0.020 -0.110 0.024

PA 420791101 WILKES-BARRE CHILWICK & WASHINGTON STS 0.132 0.017 0.089 0.016

PA 420850100 NOT IN A CITY PA518 (NEW CASTLE ROAD) & PA418 0.164 0.013

PA 420910013 NORRISTOWN STATE ARMORY - 1046 BELVOIR RD -0.323 0.016 -0.142 0.017

PA 420990301 NOT IN A CITY ROUTE 34 LITTLE BUFFALO STATE PARK -0.274 0.017 -0.052 0.016

PA 421010014 PHILADELPHIA ROXY WATER PUMP STA EVA-DEARNLEY STS -0.991 0.012 -0.720 0.014

PA 421010024 PHILADELPHIA GRANT-ASHTON ROADS PHILA NE AIRPORT -0.408 0.024 -0.374 0.029

PA 421250005 CHARLEROI CHARLER01 WASTE TREATMENT PLANT 0.060 0.023 0.386 0.022

PA 421250200 WASHINGTON MCCARRELL AND FAYETTE STS -0.273 0.017 0.094 0.017

PA 421330008 YORK HILL ST. -0.071 0.016 0.060 0.018

RI 440030002 NOT IN A CITY W. ALTON JONES CAMPUS URI PARKERFIELD -0.752 0.017 -0.888 0.018

VA 510130020 NOT IN A CITY S 18TH AND HAYES ST -0.529 0.015 -0.195 0.011

VA 510410004 NOT IN A CITY BEACH,INTERSECTION OF CO.ROADS 655 & 654 -0.555 0.020 -0.122 0.018

VA 510590018 NOT IN A CITY MT.VERNON 2675 SHERWOOD HALL LANE -0.939 0.014 -0.530 0.013

VA 510595001 MC LEAN LEWINSVILLE 1437 BALLS HILL RD -0.540 0.014 -0.209 0.015

VA 510610002 NOT IN A CITY RT651 C PHELPS WILDLIFE MANAGEMENT AREA -1.145 0.019 -0.741 0.016

VA 510870014 NOT IN A CITY 2401 HARTMAN STREET MATH & SCIENCE CTR -0.427 0.015

VA 511130003 NOT IN A CITY SHENANDOAH NP BIG MEADOWS -0.031 0.021 0.067 0.018

VA 511611004 VINTON EAST VINTON ELEMENTARY SCHOOL -0.374 0.022 -0.180 0.019

VA 515100009 ALEXANDRIA 517 N SAINT ASAPH ST, ALEXANDRIA HEALTH 0.104 0.024 0.400 0.020

VA 518000004 SUFFOLK TIDEWATER COMM. COLLEGE, FREDERIC -0.287 0.024 0.072 0.020

6
CAMPUS

Table 2 Raw and Met-adjusted trends in 1-hr ozone concentrations over the OTR for 1990-2005 ozone seasons

STATE AIRS ID STATION LOCATION RAW TRENDS

MET-ADJUSTED

TRENDS

Slope 95% CI Slope 95% CI

(%/yr) (%/yr)

CT 090010017 GREENWICH GREENWICH POINT PARK 0.165 0.022 0.202 0.024

CT 090011123 DANBURY TRAILER, W. CONNECTICUT STATE UNIVERSITY 0.591 0.024 0.646 0.023

CT 090013007 STRATFORD USCG LIGHTHOUSE , PROSPECT STREET 0.078 0.018 -0.123 0.019

CT 090031003 EAST HARTFORD MCAULIFFEE PARK 0.046 0.027 0.208 0.018

CT 090070007 MIDDLETOWN CONN. VALLEY HOSP., SHEW HALL, EASTERN D 0.225 0.017 0.171 0.012

CT 090093002 MADISON HAMMONASSET STATE PARK -0.203 0.022 -0.167 0.025

CT 090110008 GROTON UNIVERSITY OF CONNECTICUT, AVERY POINT -0.402 0.022 -0.295 0.026

CT 090131001 STAFFORD ROUTE 190, SHENIPSIT STATE FOREST -0.114 0.019 -0.104 0.015

DC 110010025 NOT IN A CITY TAKOMA SC. PINEY BRANCH RD & DAHLIA ST N -0.357 0.029 -0.088 0.021

ME 230052003 CAPE ELIZABETH TWO LIGHTS STATE PARK -0.858 0.021 -0.684 0.02

ME 230312002 NOT IN A CITY OCEAN AVE/PARSONS WAY, KENNEBUNKPORT -0.874 0.015 -0.746 0.013

MD 240030014 NOT IN A CITY QUEEN ANNE AND WAYSON ROADS -0.805 0.037 -0.518 0.032

MD 240051007 COCKEYSVILLE GREENSIDE DRIVE COCKEYSVILLE MD -0.805 0.021 -0.416 0.013

MD 240053001 ESSEX WOODWARD & DORSEY RDS ,ESSEX MD -0.396 0.020

MD 240130001 NOT IN A CITY 1300 W. OLD LIBERTY ROAD, WINFIELD,MD -0.940 0.019 -0.553 0.013

MD 240170010 NOT IN A CITY SO MD CORRECTIONAL CAMP, HUGHESVILLE -0.644 0.029 -0.501 0.025

MD 240251001 EDGEWOOD EDGEWOOD ARMY CHEM CENTER EDGEWOOD -0.555 0.020 -0.144 0.018

MD 240313001 ROCKVILLE LOTHROP E SMITH ENV.ED CENTER ROCKVILLE -0.730 0.035 -0.542 0.031

MA 250010002 TRURO FOX BOTTOM AREA-CAPE COD NAT'L Sea shr 0.134 0.019 0.202 0.019

MA 250051002 FAIRHAVEN LEROY WOOD SCHOOL 0.337 0.025 0.314 0.027

7
MA 250130008 CHICOPEE ANDERSON ROAD AIR FORCE BASE 0.252 0.023 0.473 0.018

MA 250154002 WARE QUABBIN SUMMIT -0.793 0.016 -0.706 0.014

NH 330050007 KEENE RAILROAD STREET -0.150 0.072 -0.180 0.065

NH 330190003 CLAREMONT SOUTH STREET 0.570 0.045 0.550 0.012

NJ 340010005 NOT IN A CITY BRIGANTINE WILDLIFE REFUGE,NACOTE CREEK -1.291 0.031 -1.308 0.031

NJ 340070003 NOT IN A CITY COPEWOOD E. DAVIS STS; TRAILER -0.089 0.025 -0.043 0.022

NJ 340071001 NOT IN A CITY ANCORA STATE HOSPITAL, ANCORA -0.720 0.017 -0.544 0.023

NJ 340110007 NOT IN A CITY LINCOLN AVE.&HIGHWAY 55,NE OF MILLVILLE -0.592 0.021 -0.257 0.022

NJ 340150002 NOT IN A CITY CLARKSBORO,SHADY LANE REST HOME -0.743 0.016 -0.473 0.018

NJ 340170006 BAYONNE VETERANS PARK ON NEWARK BAY -1.137 0.019 -0.782 0.022

NJ 340190001 FLEMINGTON RARITAN STP,RTE.613S, THREE BRIDGES -0.208 0.019 0.121 0.023

NJ 340210005 NOT IN A CITY RIDER COLLEGE;LAWRENCE TOWNSHIP -1.027 0.021 -0.828 0.019

NJ 340273001 NOT IN A CITY BLDG.#1, BELL LABS, OFF ROUTE 513 -0.863 0.024 -0.575 0.029

NY 360010012 ALBANY LOUDONVILLE RESERVOIR -0.148 0.019 0.154 0.014

NY 360150003 ELMIRA SULLIVAN ST., WATER TR. PL. 0.066 0.026

NY 360290002 AMHERST AUDUBON GOLF COURSE, MAPLE ROAD 1.008 0.031 1.358 0.031

NY 360310002 NOT IN A CITY SUMMIT,WHITEFACE MTN,WEATHER STATION -0.447 0.016 -0.376 0.027

NY 360310003 NOT IN A CITY BASE WHITEFACE MTN,ASRC,SUNY -0.517 0.027 -0.441 0.025

NY 360450002 NOT IN A CITY VADAI ROAD, PERCH RIVER, BROWNVILLE 0.626 0.027 0.533 0.029

NY 360631006 NOT IN A CITY MIDDLEPORT STP, NORTH HARTLAND RD 0.213 0.020 0.529 0.019

NY 360850067 NEW YORK CITY SUSAN WAGNER HS -0.400 0.027

NY 360930003 SCHENECTADY MT.PLEASANT HS. -0.043 0.021 0.255 0.015

NY 361030002 BABYLON EAST FARMINGDALE WATER DIST.,GAZZA BLVD. -0.927 0.016 -1.101 0.016

NY 361030004 RIVERHEAD 39 SOUND AVENUE,RIVERHEAD -0.170 0.051 -0.089 0.038

NY 361173001 NOT IN A CITY WAYNE EDUCATIONAL CENTER, WILLIAMSON -0.841 0.033 -0.408 0.025

NY 361192004 WHITE PLAINS WHITE PLAINS PUMP STATION,ORCHARD Str -0.250 0.026 0.084 0.024

PA 420030008 PITTSBURGH BAPC 301 39TH STREET BLDG #7 0.871 0.050 1.486 0.045

PA 420030067 NOT IN A CITY OLD OAKDALE ROAD SOUTH FAYETTE 1.406 0.052 1.767 0.046

PA 420070014 BEAVER FALLS EIGHT STREET AND RIVER ALLEY -0.118 0.026 0.417 0.023

8
PA 420110009 READING UGI CO MONGANTOWN RD AND PROSPECT ST -0.143 0.024

PA 420130801 ALTOONA 2ND AVE & 7TH ST -0.274 0.024 0.190 0.021

PA 420170012

BRISTOL

(BOROUG ROCKVIEW LANE -0.536 0.019 -0.322 0.024

PA 420210011 NOT IN A CITY MILLER AUTO SHOP 1 MESSENGER ST 0.085 0.029 0.564 0.026

PA 420430401 HARRISBURG 1833 UPS DRIVE HARRISBURG PA -0.142 0.027 0.048 0.018

PA 420431100 HERSHEY SIPE AVE & MAE STREET -0.251 0.026 -0.120 0.022

PA 420450002 CHESTER FRONT ST & NORRIS ST -0.464 0.021 -0.042 0.022

PA 420692006 SCRANTON GEORGE ST TROOP AND CITY OF SCRANTON -0.253 0.025 -0.097 0.026

PA 420710007 LANCASTER CITY ABRAHAM LINCOLN JR HIGH GROFFTOWN RD 0.124 0.029 0.329 0.029

PA 420730015 NEW CASTLE CROTON ST & JEFFERSON ST. 0.075 0.022 0.394 0.022

PA 420770004 ALLENTOWN STATE HOSPITAL REAR 1600 HANOVER AVE 0.272 0.026 0.346 0.026

PA 420791100 NANTICOKE 255 LOWER BROADWAY 0.467 0.026 0.640 0.030

PA 420791101 WILKES-BARRE CHILWICK & WASHINGTON STS -0.327 0.022 -0.134 0.024

PA 420850100 NOT IN A CITY PA518 (NEW CASTLE ROAD) & PA418 0.104 0.022 0.360 0.020

PA 420910013 NORRISTOWN STATE ARMORY - 1046 BELVOIR RD -0.404 0.026 0.125 0.027

PA 420990301 NOT IN A CITY ROUTE 34 LITTLE BUFFALO STATE PARK -0.284 0.027 -0.441 0.019

PA 421010014 PHILADELPHIA ROXY WATER PUMP STA EVA-DEARNLEY STS -0.773 0.017 0.430 0.037

PA 421250200 WASHINGTON MCCARRELL AND FAYETTE STS -0.091 0.027 0.444 0.027

PA 421330008 YORK HILL ST. 0.296 0.021 0.535 0.023

RI 440030002 NOT IN A CITY W. ALTON JONES CAMPUS URI PARKERFIELD -0.166 0.019 -0.204 0.021

VA 510130020 NOT IN A CITY S 18TH AND HAYES ST -0.347 0.021 -0.109 0.016

VA 510410004 NOT IN A CITY BEACH,INTERSECTION OF CO.ROADS 655 & 654 -0.454 0.031 -0.081 0.028

VA 510590018 NOT IN A CITY MT.VERNON 2675 SHERWOOD HALL LANE -0.631 0.020 -0.377 0.020

VA 510595001 MC LEAN LEWINSVILLE 1437 BALLS HILL RD -0.384 0.021 -0.091 0.021

VA 510610002 NOT IN A CITY RT651 C PHELPS WILDLIFE MANAGEMENT AREA -1.288 0.029 -1.044 0.023

VA 510870014 NOT IN A CITY 2401 HARTMAN STREET MATH & SCIENCE CTR -0.645 0.021 -0.206 0.019

VA 511130003 NOT IN A CITY SHENANDOAH NP BIG MEADOWS -0.387 0.029 -0.319 0.024

VA 511611004 VINTON EAST VINTON ELEMENTARY SCHOOL -0.281 0.036 -0.199 0.027

VA 515100009 ALEXANDRIA 517 N SAINT ASAPH ST, ALEXANDRIA HEALTH 0.041 0.031 0.180 0.028

VA 518000004 SUFFOLK

TIDEWATER COMM. COLLEGE, FREDERIC

CAMPUS -0.825 0.025 -0.074 0.028

9
Table 3 Raw and Met-adjusted trends in 1-hr ozone concentrations over the OTR for 1995-2005 ozone seasons

STATE AIRS ID STATION LOCATION RAW TRENDS

MET-ADJUSTED

TRENDS

Slope 95% CI Slope 95% CI

(%/yr) (%/yr)

CT 090010017 GREENWICH GREENWICH POINT PARK -0.288 0.033

CT 090011123 DANBURY TRAILER, W. CONNECTICUT STATE UNIVERSITY 0.807 0.037 0.506 0.038

CT 090013007 STRATFORD USCG LIGHTHOUSE , PROSPECT STREET -0.037 0.034 -0.398 0.035

CT 090031003 EAST HARTFORD MCAULIFFEE PARK -0.843 0.036 -0.458 0.017

CT 090070007 MIDDLETOWN CONN. VALLEY HOSP., SHEW HALL, EASTERN D 0.111 0.033 0.067 0.023

CT 090093002 MADISON HAMMONASSET STATE PARK -0.610 0.035 -0.913 0.040

CT 090110008 GROTON UNIVERSITY OF CONNECTICUT, AVERY POINT -0.887 0.040 -1.023 0.046

CT 090131001 STAFFORD ROUTE 190, SHENIPSIT STATE FOREST -0.259 0.038 -0.250 0.028

DC 110010025 NOT IN A CITY TAKOMA SC. PINEY BRANCH RD & DAHLIA ST N -0.917 0.051 -0.459 0.037

ME 230052003 CAPE ELIZABETH TWO LIGHTS STATE PARK -1.251 0.037 -1.135 0.034

ME 230312002 NOT IN A CITY OCEAN AVE/PARSONS WAY, KENNEBUNKPORT -0.828 0.029 -0.911 0.025

MD 240030014 NOT IN A CITY QUEEN ANNE AND WAYSON ROADS -1.987 0.060 -1.460 0.056

MD 240051007 COCKEYSVILLE GREENSIDE DRIVE COCKEYSVILLE MD -0.804 0.039 -0.350 0.026

MD 240053001 ESSEX WOODWARD & DORSEY RDS ,ESSEX MD -0.324 0.038 0.213 0.032

MD 240130001 NOT IN A CITY 1300 W. OLD LIBERTY ROAD, WINFIELD,MD -1.212 0.033 -0.698 0.026

MD 240170010 NOT IN A CITY SO MD CORRECTIONAL CAMP, HUGHESVILLE -1.542 0.045 -1.171 0.042

MD 240251001 EDGEWOOD EDGEWOOD ARMY CHEM CENTER EDGEWOOD -0.737 0.040 -0.154 0.038

MD 240313001 ROCKVILLE LOTHROP E SMITH ENV.ED CENTER ROCKVILLE -1.873 0.056 -1.446 0.050

10
MA 250010002 TRURO

FOX BOTTOM AREA-CAPE COD NAT'L

SEASHORE -0.152 0.030 -0.267 0.030

MA 250051002 FAIRHAVEN LEROY WOOD SCHOOL -0.145 0.025 -0.268 0.031

MA 250130008 CHICOPEE ANDERSON ROAD AIR FORCE BASE 0.276 0.044 0.515 0.032

MA 250154002 WARE QUABBIN SUMMIT -0.215 0.026 -0.420 0.022

NH 330050007 KEENE RAILROAD STREET -0.140 0.097 -0.170 0.089

NH 330190003 CLAREMONT SOUTH STREET 0.560 0.090 0.550 0.033

NJ 340010005 NOT IN A CITY BRIGANTINE WILDLIFE REFUGE,NACOTE CREEK -2.237 0.041 -2.354 0.044

NJ 340070003 NOT IN A CITY COPEWOOD E. DAVIS STS; TRAILER 0.330 0.044 -0.278 0.040

NJ 340071001 NOT IN A CITY ANCORA STATE HOSPITAL, ANCORA -1.046 0.021 -1.292 0.031

NJ 340110007 NOT IN A CITY LINCOLN AVE.&HIGHWAY 55,NE OF MILLVILLE -0.653 0.034 -0.324 0.045

NJ 340150002 NOT IN A CITY CLARKSBORO,SHADY LANE REST HOME -0.850 0.027 -0.902 0.030

NJ 340170006 BAYONNE VETERANS PARK ON NEWARK BAY -0.987 0.035 -1.198 0.036

NJ 340190001 FLEMINGTON RARITAN STP,RTE.613S, THREE BRIDGES -0.250 0.026 -0.358 0.026

NJ 340210005 NOT IN A CITY RIDER COLLEGE;LAWRENCE TOWNSHIP -0.798 0.035 -1.098 0.034

NJ 340273001 NOT IN A CITY BLDG.#1, BELL LABS, OFF ROUTE 513 -1.293 0.043 -1.491 0.040

NY 360010012 ALBANY LOUDONVILLE RESERVOIR -0.050 0.039 -0.339 0.021

NY 360150003 ELMIRA SULLIVAN ST., WATER TR. PL. -0.312 0.045 -0.373 0.042

NY 360290002 AMHERST AUDUBON GOLF COURSE, MAPLE ROAD 1.091 0.050 1.203 0.047

NY 360310002 NOT IN A CITY SUMMIT,WHITEFACE MTN,WEATHER STATION -0.290 0.022 -0.058 0.025

NY 360310003 NOT IN A CITY BASE WHITEFACE MTN,ASRC,SUNY -0.479 0.049 -0.701 0.042

NY 360450002 NOT IN A CITY VADAI ROAD, PERCH RIVER, BROWNVILLE 0.122 0.049 0.047 0.045

NY 360631006 NOT IN A CITY MIDDLEPORT STP, NORTH HARTLAND RD 0.086 0.035 0.296 0.031

NY 360850067 NEW YORK CITY SUSAN WAGNER HS -1.031 0.030 -1.261 0.048

NY 360930003 SCHENECTADY MT.PLEASANT HS. 0.180 0.042 -0.095 0.028

NY 361030002 BABYLON EAST FARMINGDALE WATER DIST.,GAZZA BLVD. -0.706 0.024 -0.958 0.031

NY 361030004 RIVERHEAD 39 SOUND AVENUE,RIVERHEAD -1.590 0.057 -1.312 0.035

NY 361173001 NOT IN A CITY WAYNE EDUCATIONAL CENTER, WILLIAMSON -1.594 0.060 -1.184 0.042

NY 361192004 WHITE PLAINS WHITE PLAINS PUMP STATION,ORCHARD ST -0.352 0.048 -0.371 0.042

PA 420030008 PITTSBURGH BAPC 301 39TH STREET BLDG #7 -1.114 0.042 -0.341 0.046

11
PA 420030067 NOT IN A CITY OLD OAKDALE ROAD SOUTH FAYETTE -0.675 0.053 -0.110 0.049

PA 420070014 BEAVER FALLS EIGHT STREET AND RIVER ALLEY -0.968 0.030 -0.262 0.035

PA 420110009 READING UGI CO MONGANTOWN RD AND PROSPECT ST -0.398 0.041 -0.310 0.027

PA 420130801 ALTOONA 2ND AVE & 7TH ST -1.096 0.033 -0.451 0.035

PA 420170012

BRISTOL

(BOROUG ROCKVIEW LANE -0.886 0.035 -1.164 0.035

PA 420210011 NOT IN A CITY MILLER AUTO SHOP 1 MESSENGER ST -0.681 0.050

PA 420430401 HARRISBURG 1833 UPS DRIVE HARRISBURG PA -0.378 0.053 -0.190 0.035

PA 420431100 HERSHEY SIPE AVE & MAE STREET -0.905 0.041 -0.839 0.036

PA 420450002 CHESTER FRONT ST & NORRIS ST -0.868 0.037 -0.762 0.034

PA 420692006 SCRANTON GEORGE ST TROOP AND CITY OF SCRANTON -0.902 0.042 -1.131 0.036

PA 420710007

LANCASTER

CITY ABRAHAM LINCOLN JR HIGH GROFFTOWN RD -0.836 0.038 -1.101 0.028

PA 420730015 NEW CASTLE CROTON ST & JEFFERSON ST. -0.697 0.031 -0.529 0.029

PA 420770004 ALLENTOWN STATE HOSPITAL REAR 1600 HANOVER AVE -0.516 0.043 -0.557 0.042

PA 420791100 NANTICOKE 255 LOWER BROADWAY -0.203 0.047 -0.375 0.050

PA 420791101 WILKES-BARRE CHILWICK & WASHINGTON STS -0.837 0.038 -1.076 0.031

PA 420850100 NOT IN A CITY PA518 (NEW CASTLE ROAD) & PA418 -0.641 0.035 -0.518 0.023

PA 420910013 NORRISTOWN STATE ARMORY - 1046 BELVOIR RD -1.211 0.040 -1.094 0.037

PA 420990301 NOT IN A CITY ROUTE 34 LITTLE BUFFALO STATE PARK -0.937 0.041 -0.888 0.033

PA 421010014 PHILADELPHIA ROXY WATER PUMP STA EVA-DEARNLEY STS -1.056 0.027 -1.223 0.022

PA 421010024 PHILADELPHIA GRANT-ASHTON ROADS PHILA NE AIRPORT -0.337 0.054 -1.442 0.055

PA 421250005 CHARLEROI CHARLER01 WASTE TREATMENT PLANT -1.480 0.052 -0.892 0.058

PA 421250200 WASHINGTON MCCARRELL AND FAYETTE STS -0.876 0.044 -0.227 0.048

PA 421330008 YORK HILL ST. 0.326 0.036 0.159 0.036

RI 440030002 NOT IN A CITY W. ALTON JONES CAMPUS URI PARKERFIELD 0.044 0.031 -0.128 0.032

VA 510130020 NOT IN A CITY S 18TH AND HAYES ST -0.492 0.036

VA 510410004 NOT IN A CITY BEACH,INTERSECTION OF CO.ROADS 655 & 654 -1.333 0.039 -0.972 0.040

VA 510590018 NOT IN A CITY MT.VERNON 2675 SHERWOOD HALL LANE -0.659 0.036 -0.604 0.037

VA 510595001 MC LEAN LEWINSVILLE 1437 BALLS HILL RD -0.164 0.039 0.138 0.038

VA 510610002 NOT IN A CITY RT651 C PHELPS WILDLIFE MANAGEMENT AREA -2.029 0.050 -1.963 0.030

VA 510870014 NOT IN A CITY 2401 HARTMAN STREET MATH & SCIENCE CTR -0.871 0.042 -0.659 0.036

12
VA 511130003 NOT IN A CITY SHENANDOAH NP BIG MEADOWS -1.406 0.044 -1.230 0.029

VA 511611004 VINTON EAST VINTON ELEMENTARY SCHOOL -1.186 0.063 -1.099 0.043

VA 515100009 ALEXANDRIA 517 N SAINT ASAPH ST, ALEXANDRIA HEALTH -0.399 0.048 0.080 0.032

VA 518000004 SUFFOLK

TIDEWATER COMM. COLLEGE, FREDERIC

CAMPUS -0.822 0.047 -0.179 0.049

13
 Figure 1a

14
Figure 1b

15