9-i

CHAPTER 9. SHIPMENTS ANALYSIS 

TABLE OF CONTENTS 

9.1 INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................... 9-1 

9.2 TOTAL SHIPMENTS AND MOTOR APPLICATIONS............................................... 9-2 

9.2.1 Compressors......................................................................................................... 9-2 

9.2.2 Conveyors............................................................................................................ 9-3 

9.2.3 Pumps................................................................................................................... 9-3 

9.2.4 Fans and Blowers................................................................................................. 9-4 

9.2.5 General Industry and Miscellaneous.................................................................... 9-4 

9.2.6 Covered Motor Applications Summary............................................................... 9-4 

9.3 SHIPMENTS BY PRODUCT CLASS............................................................................ 9-5

9-9

9-10

9-11

9-12

9-14

9-5

9-6

9-6

9-6

9-7

9-7

9-8

9-8

9-9

9-11

9-14

9-17

9-18

9.4 SHIPMENTS FORECAST.............................................................................................. 

9.4.1 Sensitivity of Shipments to Installed Cost......................................................... 

9.4.2 Polyphase Motor Shipment Forecast ................................................................. 

9.4.3 Capacitor-Start Motor Shipment Forecast ......................................................... 

9.4.4 CSIR/CSCR Market Share Response to the Standard Level............................. 

LIST OF TABLES 

Table 9.2.1 Application Shares by Equipment Type .............................................................. 9-4 

Table 9.2.2 Shares of Motor Owner Type by Application...................................................... 

Table 9.3.1 Polyphase Small Electric Motors, NEMA Shipment Data, 2000 ........................ 

Table 9.3.2 CSIR Small Electric Motors, NEMA Shipment Data, 2000................................ 

Table 9.3.3 Polyphase Small Electric Motor Models in Manufacturer Catalogs, 2009 ......... 

Table 9.3.4 CSIR Small Electric Motor Models in Manufacturer Catalogs, 2009................. 

Table 9.3.5 CSCR Small Electric Motor Models in Manufacturer Catalogs, 2009................ 

Table 9.3.6 Estimated Polyphase Small Electric Motor Shipments by Product Class, 

2008...................................................................................................................... 

Table 9.3.7 Estimated Capacitor-Start Induction-Run Small Electric Motor Shipments 

by Product Class, 2008 ........................................................................................ 

Table 9.3.8 Estimated Capacitor-Start Capacitor-Run Small Electric Motor Shipments 

by Product Class, 2008 ........................................................................................ 

Table 9.4.1 Annual and Cumulative Shipments Forecast for Polyphase Small Electric 

Motors................................................................................................................ 

Table 9.4.2 Annual and Cumulative Shipments Forecast for Capacitor-Start Small 

Electric Motors in the Base Case ....................................................................... 

Table 9.4.3 CSCR Current Market Share and Model Comparison for Each 

Combination of Horsepower and Number of Poles........................................... 

Table 9.4.4 Cumulative CSIR and CSCR Motor Shipments (Millions) Between 2015 

and 2045 (10-year Market Share Shift Timescale)............................................ 

EERE-2007-BT-STD-0007 COMMENT 17
9-ii

Table 9.4.5 Cumulative CSIR and CSCR Motor Shipments (Millions) Between 2015 

and 2045 (Market Share Shift Complete Prior to 2015).................................... 9-18

9-19

9-11

9-12

9-13

9-16

Table 9.4.6 Cumulative CSIR and CSCR Motor Shipments (Millions) Between 2015 

and 2045 (Segmented Market Model, Market Share Shift Complete Prior 

to 2015).............................................................................................................. 

LIST OF FIGURES 

Figure 9.4.1 Shipments Forecasts for Polyphase Small Electric Motors............................... 

Figure 9.4.2 Affected Stock of Polyphase Small Electric Motors ......................................... 

Figure 9.4.3 Shipments Forecasts for Capacitor-Start Small Electric Motors in the Base 

Case.................................................................................................................... 

Figure 9.4.4 Comparison of CSCR Market Share Between Current Market and DOE’s 

Logistic Model................................................................................................... 

EERE-2007-BT-STD-0007 COMMENT 17
9-1 

CHAPTER 9. SHIPMENTS ANALYSIS 

9.1 INTRODUCTION 

Future product shipments estimates are a necessary input to the national energy savings 

(NES) and net present value (NPV) calculations. Shipments, combined with the characteristics of 

the applications in which the motors are used and the motor lifetime, allow the Department to 

estimate the total energy used by the installed stock of small motors each year. Shipments are 

also a necessary input to the manufacturer impact analysis. The core of the shipments analysis is 

an accounting model that the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) developed to simulate how 

future purchases are incorporated into an in-service stock of aging motors that are gradually 

replaced. DOE’s small motors shipments forecasts are based on forecasts of economic growth, 

and do not incorporate a distinction within shipments between replacements and purchases for 

new applications. 

 DOE developed a shipments forecast for each of the three covered small motor 

equipment categories (polyphase, capacitor-start induction-run, and capacitor-start capacitor-run 

motors). Within each category, small motor shipments are comprised of products in a number of 

horsepower ratings and three rotation speeds (corresponding to 2-pole, 4-pole, and 6-pole 

motors). DOE conducted its life-cycle cost analysis (see chapter 8) using representative 4-pole 

motors in each equipment category. 

 To formulate its shipment estimates, DOE began with shipments data provided by 

National Electrical Manufacturers Association (NEMA) for the determination analysis,1

 along 

with a comprehensive survey of the number of covered models listed in manufacturer catalogs 

available on the internet2 and a review of U.S. Census data regarding production and imports of 

motors and equipment containing motors. Based on these data, DOE estimates that polyphase 

motors account for an estimated 19 percent of current total unit shipments while capacitor-start 

induction-run (CSIR) motors are 77 percent and capacitor-start capacitor-run (CSCR) motors are 

4 percent. 

 

 Section 9.2 provides a summary of the data DOE used to develop estimates of the 

shipments of covered small electric motors in several applications, and the resulting estimates of 

total covered motor shipments. Section 9.3 addresses the distribution of these motors into 

product classes (horsepower and number of poles) within each category, based in part on the 

number of models currently available for sale in each product class. Section 9.4 presents DOE’s 

forecasts of covered motor shipments throughout the analysis period. 

EERE-2007-BT-STD-0007 COMMENT 17
9-2 

9.2 TOTAL SHIPMENTS AND MOTOR APPLICATIONS 

 

 Based on comments from NEMA manufacturers in combination with DOE’s previous 

estimates and an application analysis conducted for this stage of the rulemaking, total annual 

shipments of polyphase covered motors were modeled to total 750,000 per year. DOE’s 

preliminary analysis suggested total covered polyphase shipments as 557,000, and a motor 

manufacturer representative at the preliminary public meeting suggested that the total was closer 

to 1 million. Upon analyzing the various applications for these motors, DOE determined that the 

total number of shipments lay between these two estimates, at roughly 750,000. This total is also 

consistent with U.S. Census-reported small polyphase motor shipments, adjusted for the 

breakdown of 2/3 enclosed, 1/3 open polyphase motors determined from a NEMA survey in the 

Determination phase. CSIR motor shipments total 3.1 million units per year, according to the 

written comment from NEMA, and CSCR motor shipments total roughly 163,000 (based on 

DOE’s assumption, in turn based on a joint NEMA/SMMA survey in 2000,1 that 5% of 

capacitor-start shipments are capacitor-run motors). CSIR and CSCR motors are used for the 

same range of applications, although CSCR motors are generally more widely available in higher 

horsepower ratings. 

 DOE drew upon several data sources to develop a model of the applications for which 

motors covered in this analysis are used: data collected by Easton Consultants in the preparation 

of the Small Motors Determination Analysis,3

 DOE’s own analysis in the Determination and 

Framework stages,4,5

 U.S. Census reports, comments from interested parties, both written and at 

the preliminary public meeting6, and interviews with experts in motor OEM industries.7 The 

report by Easton Consultants developed for the Small Motors Determination Analysis provided 

the foundation for initial shipment estimates. However, the motor applications summarized in 

that report did not reflect DOE’s current definition of general purpose small electric motors. 

9.2.1 Compressors 

 Most small air compressors (under 11 CFM) use small electric motors. Based on studies 

of compressor manufacturer and retailer catalogs, DOE concluded that these motors are 

commonly open-enclosure, general purpose electric motors of the sort covered in this 

rulemaking. Very small (hand-carry-sized) compressors often use universal or permanentmagnet-DC motors, and some smaller compressors use special-purpose assemblies in which the 

compressor and motor are intimately linked. Some larger compressors use motors (referred to as 

“compressor-duty” motors) which do not meet the service factor requirements for a NEMA 

general purpose small electric motor. However, a significant fraction of portable and small 

stationary air compressors do use general purpose small electric motors which would be covered 

by this rulemaking. 

 The U.S. Census reports that total U.S. shipments of portable air compressors totaled 

roughly 2.7 million units in 20078

. Shipments of stationary air compressors with motors smaller 

than or equal to 1.5 hp are not reported by the Census due to the small number of manufacturers. 

However, the Census does report that the value of these shipments totaled $101 million. DOE 

EERE-2007-BT-STD-0007 COMMENT 17
9-3 

assumed that these small compressors are less valuable, per unit, than compressors with larger 

motors, and estimated that stationary compressor shipments with motors less than 1.5 hp exceed 

250,000 per year, indicating total “small air compressor” shipments of roughly 3 million units. 

DOE assumed that about 20% of these compressors use motors covered by this analysis, with 

80% of those being capacitor-start motors and 20% polyphase. DOE therefore estimated motor 

shipments for compressors to be 500,000 capacitor-start motors and 130,000 polyphase motors. 

9.2.2 Conveyors 

 The U.S. Census reports that conveyors and material handling shipments totaled roughly 

$5.9 billion in 20029. This total includes parts (roughly $400 million), as well as bulk handling 

and unit handling conveyors. DOE assumed that roughly $2 billion of conveyor and material 

handling system shipment value in 2008 is accounted for by electrically driven conveyors and 

material handling systems. Conveyor sales catalogs indicate a typical system cost (per singlemotor driven conveyor) of between $1500 and $500010, which implies unit shipments between 

400,000 and 1.3 million. The Determination Analysis assumed small motor shipments for 

conveyors of roughly 700,000, which is consistent with these estimates. DOE recognizes that 

conveyors are driven by a range of motors, including enclosed motors and variable-speed DC 

motors. Therefore, DOE estimated covered motor shipments for conveyor applications to total 

500,000, of which 80% (400,000) are assumed to be capacitor-start motors, and 20% (100,000) 

to be polyphase motors. This represents a reduction in polyphase shipments of a factor of two 

relative to the Determination Analysis. DOE assumed that polyphase motors are more likely to 

be used in industrial settings, where enclosed motors play larger role. 

9.2.3 Pumps 

 Pumps represent the largest application of general-purpose small electric motors. U.S. 

pump manufacturers ship roughly 20 million pumps each year, of which roughly 15 million are 

industrial pumps (or labeled “other” by the U.S. Census)8

. Of the 15 million industrial pumps 

produced by U.S. companies, between 1 and 2 million are close coupled to their driver (motor), 

and therefore are not driven by general purpose motors. Roughly 1 million industrial pumps 

shipped each year are submersible, and therefore cannot be open, general purpose motors. The 

possible universe of industrial pumps which might use small general purpose motors is therefore 

between 12 and 13 million. Residential applications total about 5 million pump shipments per 

year and include pool pumps, hot water circulators, irrigation pumps, sump pumps, and well 

pumps. U.S. Census totals include 1.3 million non-submersible water pumps, which could be 

driven by general purpose motors. The total shipments of pumps that might use a covered 

general purpose small motor are therefore roughly 13 million. DOE assumed that 15% of these 

pumps use motors which would be covered under this proposed rule. DOE estimated a total of 

2.18 million shipments in 2008 of covered small electric motors in pump applications, of which 

1.8 million are capacitor-start and 380,000 are polyphase. 

EERE-2007-BT-STD-0007 COMMENT 17
9-4 

9.2.4 Fans and Blowers 

 The 2002 U.S. Economic Census11 reported that industrial and commercial fan and 

blower manufacturers spent $103.8 million on drivers (motors) for their products. Fans and 

blowers use a wide range of motor sizes (although small motors are highly represented due to the 

relatively low power necessary to move large volumes of air), as well as a mixture of open and 

enclosed motors. DOE estimated that the average cost of a fan or blower motor to a manufacturer 

in 2002 was $150, which resulted in an estimate of 650,000 motors shipped to drive fans and 

blowers. Many of these motors are permanent-split capacitor (PSC) motors or other motors with 

low starting torque, suitable for driving fans. DOE estimated that 230,000 capacitor-start motors 

and 55,000 polyphase motors covered by this proposed rule are used in fan and blower 

applications. 

9.2.5 General Industry and Miscellaneous 

 DOE calculated the total motors in “general industrial” applications by subtracting the 

four specific applications from the estimated shipments. This application category includes the 

small number of covered motors used in application categories which DOE has not analyzed 

separately, such as medical applications, commercial clothes dryers, machine tools, food 

processing equipment, packaging machinery, and HVAC/R. DOE estimated that the total 

shipments into this broad range of applications are 450,000 capacitor-start motors and 85,000 

polyphase motors. 

9.2.6 Covered Motor Applications Summary 

 Table 9.2.1 shows the percentage of shipments in each motor category that are used in the 

five applications DOE examined. 

Table 9.2.1 Application Shares by Equipment Type 

Equipment Category 

No. Application Polyphase CSIR CSCR 

1 Air and gas compressors 17.3% 14.9% 14.9% 

2 Conveyors 13.3% 11.9% 11.9% 

3 General industrial machinery 11.3% 12.5% 12.5% 

4 Industrial and commercial fans and 

blowers 7.3% 6.9% 6.9% 

5 Pumps and pumping equipment 50.7% 53.7% 53.7% 

TOTAL 100% 100% 100% 

For each equipment category, DOE calculated an average annual shipments growth rate 

by weighting the growth rates in the application sectors by the ownership shares of each sector in 

that class. In order to develop these forecasts, DOE estimated the percentage of motors within 

EERE-2007-BT-STD-0007 COMMENT 17
9-5 

each application which are used in industrial, agricultural, commercial, or residential sectors. The 

estimated sector ownership shares are shown in Table 9.2.2 for each application. 

Table 9.2.2 Shares of Motor Owner Type by Application 

Motor Owner Type (%) 

No. Application Industrial Commercial Agricultural Residential

1 Air and gas compressors 40% 40% 10% 10% 

2 Conveyors 40% 50% 10% 0% 

3 General industrial machinery 50% 40% 10% 0% 

4 Industrial and commercial fans and blowers 50% 50% 0% 0% 

5 Pumps and pumping equipment 40% 35% 20% 5% 

9.3 SHIPMENTS BY PRODUCT CLASS 

DOE developed an estimated distribution of shipments for 2008 among the various 

product classes. (Average motors within each product class use different amounts of energy; see 

chapter 6). DOE used two data sources to develop these estimates: a distribution for many 

product classes for the year 2000, provided by NEMA as part of the Determination Analysis, and 

a survey of internet catalogs of 9 small electric motor manufacturers, undertaken between April 1 

and May 1, 2009.2

For the Determination Analysis, NEMA provided shipment data on small electric motors 

to DOE. Tables 9.3.1 and 9.3.2 show this data, which provided the basis for the Department’s 

estimated distributions of shipments for polyphase and CSIR motors. NEMA was unable to 

provide shipments for some product classes, as well as virtually the entire CSCR equipment 

category, due to anti-trust restrictions. The product classes for which NEMA provided no data 

are shown as asterisks in Tables 9.3.1 and 9.3.2. 

EERE-2007-BT-STD-0007 COMMENT 17
9-6 

Table 9.3.1 Polyphase Small Electric Motors, NEMA Shipment Data, 2000 

Motor 

Horsepower

Six Poles Four Poles Two Poles Total 

1/4 hp * * * 9,163 

1/3 hp 3,788 12,899 2,585 19,272 

1/2hp 6,478 39,501 2,856 48,835 

3/4 hp 9.729 47,084 65,405 122,218 

1 hp * 56,783 * 84,670 

1 1/2 hp * 115,638 * 124,959 

2-3 hp - 22,384 10,149 32,533 

TOTAL 441,650 

* Data withheld by NEMA due to insufficient number of manufacturers reporting for those ratings / poles

Table 9.3.2 CSIR Small Electric Motors, NEMA Shipment Data, 2000 

Motor 

Horsepower

Six Poles Four Poles Two Poles Total 

1/4 hp * 342,064 * 882,878 

1/3 hp 551,566 609,264 354,258 1,515,088 

1/2hp 301,198 493,151 465,799 1,260,148 

3/4 hp * 385,013 * 1,121,644 

1 hp - 53,042 143,571 196,613 

>1 hp - 23,638 24,892 48,530 

TOTAL 5,024,901 

* Data withheld by NEMA due to insufficient number of manufacturers reporting for those ratings / poles. 

 The Department used the number of models currently sold by NEMA-member motor 

manufacturers as an estimated measure of relative shipments for product classes where NEMA 

provided no collective data. Tables 9.3.3 through 9.3.5 show the number of models in each class 

as determined from the Department’s survey of internet motor catalogs. 

Table 9.3.3 Polyphase Small Electric Motor Models in Manufacturer Catalogs, 2009 

Motor 

Horsepower

 Six Poles Four Poles Two Poles Total 

1/4 hp 7 13 2 22 

1/3 hp 8 30 21 59 

1/2hp 15 45 29 89 

3/4 hp 16 42 26 84 

1 hp 7 48 24 79 

1 1/2 hp 2 39 28 69 

2 hp 0 32 29 61 

3 hp 0 12 14 26 

TOTAL 489 

EERE-2007-BT-STD-0007 COMMENT 17
9-7 

Table 9.3.4 CSIR Small Electric Motor Models in Manufacturer Catalogs, 2009 

Motor 

Horsepower 

 Six Poles Four Poles Two Poles Total 

1/4 hp 7 57 4 68 

1/3 hp 11 91 35 137 

1/2hp 15 88 52 155 

3/4 hp 6 60 40 106 

1 hp 0 59 37 96 

1 1/2 hp 0 27 24 51 

2 hp 0 6 25 31 

3 hp 0 0 4 4 

TOTAL 648 

Table 9.3.5 CSCR Small Electric Motor Models in Manufacturer Catalogs, 2009 

Motor 

Horsepower

 Six Poles Four Poles Two Poles Total 

1/4 hp 0 2 0 2 

1/3 hp 0 7 0 7 

1/2hp 0 7 0 7 

3/4 hp 9 22 0 31 

1 hp 2 8 4 16 

1 1/2 hp 0 18 9 27 

2 hp 0 12 9 21 

3 hp 0 0 5 5 

TOTAL 114 

 DOE developed shipment distributions among product classes for the year 2008 by first 

scaling the polyphase and CSIR distributions in Tables 9.3.1 and 9.3.2 so that their totals were 

equal to the total estimated shipments determined in the application analysis in Section 9.2 (3.1 

million CSIR and 750,000 polyphase small electric motors). DOE developed estimates for the 

product classes not provided by NEMA by using the number of models currently sold as a 

measure of relative shipments. For 1⁄4 horsepower polyphase motors, for example, DOE used the 

scaled total shipments, 15,560, and divided them among the three product classes in the ratio 

7:13:2 because it found 7 six-pole models sold, 13 four-pole models sold, and 2 two-pole models 

sold in its catalog survey. For 1 and 11⁄2 horsepower polyphase motors and 1⁄4 and 3⁄4 horsepower 

CSIR motors, DOE first calculated the difference between the total shipments with each power 

and the four-pole shipments, and then divided this value between the two unknown product 

classes in proportion to the number of models sold in each class. The resulting estimates for 

shipments in each product class of polyphase and CSIR motors are shown in Tables 9.3.6 and 

9.3.7, respectively. 

EERE-2007-BT-STD-0007 COMMENT 17
9-8 

Table 9.3.6 Estimated Polyphase Small Electric Motor Shipments by Product Class, 2008 

Motor 

Horsepower/Standard 

Kilowatt Equivalent 

Six Poles Four Poles Two Poles Total 

1/4 hp/0.18 kW 4,951 9,195 1,415 15,560 

1/3 hp/0.25 kW 6,433 21,905 4,390 32,727 

1/2 hp/0.37 kW 11,001 67,080 4,850 82,930 

3/4 hp/0.55 kW 16,522 79,957 111,069 207,548 

1 hp/0.75 kW 10,694 96,428 36,664 143,785 

11⁄2 hp/1.1 kW 1,055 196,374 14,773 212,203 

2-3 hp/1.5-2.2 kW - 38,012 17,235 55,247 

Total 50,655 508,950 190,395 750,000 

Table 9.3.7 Estimated Capacitor-Start Induction-Run Small Electric Motor Shipments 

by Product Class, 2008 

Motor 

Horsepower/Standard 

Kilowatt Equivalent 

Six Poles Four Poles Two Poles Total 

1/4 hp/0.18 kW 212,318 211,029 121,325 554,672 

1/3 hp/0.25 kW 340,276 375,872 218,552 934,700 

1/2 hp/0.37 kW 185,817 304,238 287,364 777,420 

3/4 hp/0.55 kW 59,276 237,525 395,172 691,973 

1 hp/0.75 kW - 32,723 88,573 121,296 

1.5 hp/1.1 kW - 11,931 6,954 18,885 

2-3 hp/1.5-2.2 kW - 2,651 8,403 11,054 

Total 797,688 1,175,970 1,126,342 3,100,000 

 DOE’s 2006 Determination Analysis concluded that CSCR motors make up roughly 5% 

of all capacitor-start shipments. DOE assumed the same ratio for this analysis (for total 

shipments of 163,158), and divided the shipments among product classes in proportion to the 

number of models sold in each class. For example, of the 114 models of CSCR motor sold, 22 

are four-pole, 3⁄4 horsepower, so DOE estimated the shipments to that class as 22/111 = 19.8% of 

the total, or 31,487 in 2008. Table 9.3.8 shows DOE’s shipment estimates for each CSCR 

product class. 

EERE-2007-BT-STD-0007 COMMENT 17
9-9 

r 

Six Poles Four 

Poles 

Tw T

Table 9.3.8 Estimated Capacitor-Start Capacitor-Run Small Electric Motor Shipments 

by Product Class, 2008 

Moto

Horse

power/

Stand

ard 

Kilow

att 

Equiv

alent 

o 

Poles o

1/4 

hp/0.1

8 kW - 2,862 - 2,86

1/3 

hp/0.2

5 kW - 10,018 - 10,01

1/2 

hp/0.3

7 kW - 10,018 - 10,01

3/4 

hp/0.5

5 kW 12,881 31,487 - 44,36

1 hp/0.75 

kW 2,862 11,450 5,725 20,03

1.5 hp/1.1 

kW - 25,762 12,881 38,64

2-3 hp/1.5-

37,2

2.2 

kW - 17,175 20,037 1

Total 15,743 108,772 38,643 163,15

9.4 SHIPMENTS FORECAST 

 DOE forecasted shipments of covered m

which stretches from 2015 (the assumed effe

otors throughout the 30-year analysis period, 

ctive date of the standard) to 2045. DOE forecast 

l 

conomic activity of the sectors in which they are used. DOE used the estimated shares of 

otor owner type shown in Table 9.2.2 to develop a weighted-average market growth driven by 

the total shipments in two categories of motors, polyphase and capacitor-start, using a mode

driven by forecasted economic growth. DOE’s forecast assumed that motors sales are driven by 

macroe

m

the Nation’s economic growth. 

EERE-2007-BT-STD-0007 COMMENT 17
9-10 

• Residential: Number of households. 

rough 2045 by, first, determining the 

ed in 

sed by the 

IA in April, 2009. The High Growth and Low Growth scenarios are from the AEO 2009

st 

t 

s in the installed cost that may 

result from efficiency standards. Totally enclosed motors are potential substitutes for the open-

 These types of motors come in the same frame 

ance characteristics (although they commonly 

 DOE believes that increases in the installed cost of small electric motors could reduce 

their purchase due to migration to totally enclosed motors or other factors. However, DOE has 

not found any data that would allow it to estimate the elasticity of small electric motor shipments 

to change in their purchase price. Interested parties at the preliminary public meeting indicated 

that they believe this elasticity to be negligible. DOE included an elasticity variable in the 

publicly-available National Impact Analysis spreadsheet models (with user-selectable choices of 

elasticity equal to 0, -0.25, and -0.5), but all results presented in this chapter and in chapter 10 

assume that overall small electric motor sales are price-inelastic. 

Annual shipments growth rates for each sector are set as equal to annual growth rates in 

the following drivers, which are provided by the 2009 Annual Energy Outlook (AEO 2009)12

through 2030: 

• Industrial and Agricultural: Manufacturing activity (total shipments—manufacturing 

only, in dollars); 

• Commercial: Commercial floor space; 

DOE continued the growth trend in AEO forecasts th

growth rate for these drivers between 2020 and 2030, and then continuing this rate from 2030 to 

2045. 

 DOE modeled four scenarios, which the user may select in the National Impact Analysis 

spreadsheets available on the internet at 

<http://www1.eere.energy.gov/buildings/appliance_standards/commercial/small_electric_motors

.html>. The Department’s reference scenario, for which NES and NPV results are report

chapter 10, is the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act reference scenario, relea

E

release, March 2009. The fourth scenario reflects comments from interested parties who foreca

a falling market share for motors covered by this rulemaking. In this scenario, DOE forecast tha

total shipments would remain equal to the 2008 shipments throughout the forecast period, 

regardless of economic growth between 2008 and 2045. 

9.4.1 Sensitivity of Shipments to Installed Cost 

 Sales of small electric motors may be sensitive to increase

construction motors covered in this rulemaking.

sizes, horsepower ratings and have similar perform

have lower service factors). Today, the incremental purchase cost of a totally enclosed motor 

instead of an open-construction motor is approximately 18 percent. If the installed cost of openconstruction motors were to increase much beyond 18 percent due to energy efficiency 

standards, there might be some migration to (non-covered) totally enclosed motors. 

EERE-2007-BT-STD-0007 COMMENT 17
9-11 

9.4.2 Polyphase Motor Shipment Forecast 

 DOE’s forecast of annual polyphase small electric motor shipments is shown in Figure 

9.4.1 and summarized in Table 9.4.1. The figure shows the four different growth rates modeled 

by the Department. The average annual shipments growth rate in the reference case is 1.33%. In 

the price-inelastic case (the Department’s reference case), polyphase shipments are unaffected by 

the standard level. 

0

2005 2010

0.2

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Shipments (Millions)

Reference Case

High Growth Case

Low Growth Case

0.4

Year

Falling Market Share

Figure 9.4.1 Shi s Foreca r Polyph all Elec otors

T Annual an ulative ents Fo for Poly Small El 

Motors

nual Sh s (million

pment sts fo ase Sm tric M

able 9.4.1 d Cum Shipm recast phase ectric

 

An ipment s) 

Growth Scenario 

2015 2025 2035 2045 

Cumulative 

2015–2045 

Reference Case 0.813 0.968 1.074 1.210 31.5 

High Growth 0.872 1.086 1.431 1.857 40.0 

Low Growth 0.802 0.892 1.009 1.132 29.7 

Falling Market 

Share 0.750 0.750 0.750 0.750 23.3 

EERE-2007-BT-STD-0007 COMMENT 17
9-12 

he 

vings from a standard tends to increase with the accumulating affected stock of equipment. 

The affected stock increases rapidly initially as the older, inefficient stock of equipment is 

replaced by standard-compliant equipment. The stock then experiences a relatively long period 

of a gradual increase as the stock of equipment increases with gradually increasing national 

economic activity. Then at the end of the forecast period for annual shipments at 2045, the 

equipment is rapidly replaced by equipment purchased after the end of the forecast period. 

 Figure 9.4.2 shows the affected stock forecast from the shipments model for polyphase 

motors, in the Department’s reference case. (The Department could produce similar plots for

each product class, or each shipment forecast, but shows only one here as an illustration.) T

affected stock is the accumulation of motors in use that are subject to standards, and energy

sa

0.00

2.00

4.00

6.00

8.00

10.00

12.00

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065

Motors (Millions)

Year

Affected Stock

ates modeled by the Department. The 

average annual shipments growth rate in the reference case is 1.33%. Table 9.4.2 presents the 

annual and cumulative shipments for CSIR and CSCR motors in the base (no standards) case. 

Figure 9.4.2 Affected Stock of Polyphase Small Electric Motors 

9.4.3 Capacitor-Start Motor Shipment Forecast 

DOE’s forecasts of annual capacitor-start small electric motor shipments are shown in

Figure 9.4.3. The figure shows the four different growth r

EERE-2007-BT-STD-0007 COMMENT 17
9-13 

Total capacitor-start shipments are unchanged by standards in the Department’s price-inelastic 

reference scenario. However, the shares of these shipments that are CSIR or CSCR motors are 

affected by the standard. Section 9.4.4 explains the Department’s CSIR/CSCR market share 

model used to forecast shipments in the standards cases. 

0.000

1.000

2.000

3.000

4.000

5.000

6.000

7.000

8.000

9.000

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Year

Motor Shipments (Millions)

CSIR Reference

CSIR High Growth

CSIR Low Growth

CSIR Falling Market Share

CSCR Reference

CSCR High Growth

CSCR Low Growth

CSCR Falling Market Share

Figure 9.4.3 Shipments Forecasts for Capacitor-Start Small Electric 

Motors in the Base Case 

EERE-2007-BT-STD-0007 COMMENT 17
9-14 

Table 9.4.2 Annual and Cumulative Shipments Forecast for Capacitor-Start Small 

Electric Motors in the Base Case 

Annual Shipments (millions) 

Growth Scenario 

2015 2025 2035 2045 

Cumulative 

2015–2045 

CSIR 

Reference Case 3.362 4.000 4.438 5.000 130.3 

High Growth 3.605 4.487 5.915 7.675 165.3 

Low Growth 3.315 3.687 4.171 4.677 122.6 

Falling Market Share 3.100 3.100 3.100 3.100 96.1 

CSCR

Reference Case 0.177 0.211 0.234 0.263 6.9 

High Growth 0.190 0.236 0.311 0.404 8.7 

Low Growth 0.174 0.194 0.220 0.246 6.5 

Falling Market Share 0.163 0.163 0.163 0.163 5.1 

9.4.4 CSIR/CSCR Market Share Response to the Standard Level 

For most applications, small general purpose CSCR motors are potential replacements for 

small CSIR motors in that they meet the same NEMA criteria regarding torque, service factor, 

and frame size, as detailed in NEMA MG1.13 Currently, CSCR motors are, on average, more 

expensive than CSIR motors for most product classes, physically larger due to the space required 

by a second capacitor, have lower losses, and have a relatively small overall market share. 

However, if a combination of standards were to be adopted which significantly changed the 

relative prices of CSCR and CSIR motors, DOE forecasts that this could result in significant 

changes in their respective market shares. DOE developed a model to analyze this potential 

market shift based on incremental purchase cost, incremental operating losses, and the observed 

market share in the current market (as derived in section 9.3). In the base case (no energy 

conservation standard), DOE assumed that the market shares of CSIR and CSCR motors would 

remain fixed at their current values for each product class. 

DOE developed a three-parameter market share model to determine the market share of 

CSCR and CSIR motors (within each combination of horsepower and number of poles) in the 

case of potential standard levels. The three parameters are: 

• α, the relative weight customers choose to give operating costs compared with purchase 

costs (the units of α are $/kWh), 

• δ, an “unfamiliarity cost” associated with CSCR motors (in dollars), and 

• β, an overall elasticity or scaling factor (no units). 

Customers appear to favor CSIR motors over CSCR motors, even if their initial costs and losses 

were almost identical. The “unfamiliarity cost” parameter δ is not a cost faced by the motor 

customer. Instead, DOE’s model uses this dollar value to describe customer behavior favoring 

CSIR motors: If a CSIR and CSCR motor had identical purchase and operating costs and the 

EERE-2007-BT-STD-0007 COMMENT 17
CSCR motor were δ dollars less expensive than the CSIR motor, the Department’s model 

predicts that each motor would have 50% market share. 

 For each product class, DOE developed a “cost factor” based on these three parameters 

and the incremental purchase cost and incremental operating losses associated with a CSCR 

motor compared with a CSIR motor of the same power and number of poles. This cost factor CF

is equal to: 

hppCF ),( β ( ) Δ×= hppPurCost ),( +α ×ΔAnnLosses hpp ),( +δ

Where: 

α, β, and δ = fit parameters as defined above, fixed for all motor powers and speeds,a

ΔPurCost(p,hp) = the difference between the average purchase cost of CSCR and CSIR 

motors with hp horsepower and p poles (in $2008) 

ΔAnnLosses(p,hp) = the difference between the average annual operating losses of CSCR and 

CSIR motors with hp horsepower and p poles (in kWh/year). 

 DOE then calculated the cost factor for each product class, as a function of α, β, and δ, 

and developed a logistic consumer choice model. That is, DOE assumed that the product market 

share is a modified logistic function of the cost factor. A simple logistic model would calculate 

the market share as: 

e

hppCF hppMS ),(

1

1 ),(

+ =

Where: 

MS(p,hp) = market share of CSCR motors among all covered capacitor-start motors with p

poles and hp horsepower. 

 

 DOE modified this model to account for the manufacturer barrier to create a new motor 

design in a product class in which no equipment is currently produced. DOE assumed that no 

manufacturer would enter a currently empty product class market until the forecast market share 

for that product class reached 10%. For example, DOE found no 1⁄2 horsepower, two-pole CSCR 

motors currently available. If the simple logistic model predicts a 3% market share for CSCR 

motors in this class, DOE assumed that the market share would remain zero. If the simple 

logistic model predicted a market share of 15% for CSCR motors in this class, DOE assumed 

that at least one manufacturer would enter the market in this class, and the CSCR market share 

would be 15%. 

 DOE then found the values of α, β, and δ that minimized the sum of the squares of the 

differences in market share (a “least squares” fit) between the current market and the model. The 

best-fit values of the model parameters are: 

 

9-15 

a

 DOE fit the 6 pole, 3⁄4 horsepower capacitor-start motor classes with their own value of δ. See the subsequent 

discussion. 

EERE-2007-BT-STD-0007 COMMENT 17
• α = 0.453 $/kWh 

• β = 0.0327 

• δ = $185.69 

 DOE found that the relationship between the cost factor and market share for the 6 pole, 3⁄4 

horsepower motor was a significant outlier compared with all other product class pairs. DOE fit 

the market share and cost factor for this class with a different value of δ, $253. Figure 9.4.4

shows the current and modeled market shares for each CSCR product class as a function of the 

best-fit cost factor. Table 9.4.3 lists DOE’s estimated market share and the prediction of its 

market share model for each combination of horsepower and number of poles, in the absence of 

standards. 

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

-6 -4 -20 2 4 6

Cost Factor

Market Share

DOE Market Share Model

Current Estimated Market Share

Figure 9.4.4 Comparison of CSCR Market Share Between 

Current Market and DOE’s Logistic Model 

9-16 

EERE-2007-BT-STD-0007 COMMENT 17
9-17 

Table 9.4.3 CSCR Current Market Share and Model Comparison for Each Combination 

of Horsepower and Number of Poles 

Six Poles Four Poles Two Poles 

Motor 

Horsepower 

Current 

CSCR Mkt. 

Share (%) 

Logistic 

Model Mkt. 

Share (%) 

Current 

CSCR Mkt. 

Share (%) 

Logistic 

Model Mkt. 

Share (%) 

Current 

CSCR Mkt. 

Share (%) 

Logistic 

Model Mkt. 

Share (%) 

0.25 0.0 0.0 1.3 0.5 0.0 0.0 

0.33 0.0 0.0 2.6 0.9 0.0 0.0 

0.5 0.0 11.9 3.2 1.8 0.0 0.0 

0.75 17.9 17.8 11.7 4.9 0.0 0.0 

1 100.0 100.0 25.9 11.2 6.1 22.8 

1.5 -- -- 68.3 41.1 64.9 63.8 

2 -- -- 86.6 82.9 64.0 81.1 

3 -- -- -- -- 86.1 99.4 

 DOE conducted an error analysis to determine the standard deviations for the values of α, 

β, and δ: 

• Δα = 0.271 $/kWh 

• Δβ = 0.0175 

• Δδ = $91.91 

 DOE then used the standard deviation of δ to derive “high CSCR” and “low CSCR” 

scenarios, in addition to the best fit “reference” scenario. These scenarios model the market share 

in the case that the “unfamiliarity cost” is significantly lower (high CSCR model) or higher (low 

CSCR model) than the Department’s reference case. Varying α or β does not result in a model 

with solely higher or lower CSCR market share (they change the relative behavior of different 

product classes within each motor category), and the Department feels that its “high CSCR” and 

“low CSCR” scenarios span the range of likely market responses. 

 DOE used the modified logistic model derived based on the current market shares to 

forecast the market shares of CSIR and CSCR motors within each product class for each 

combination of possible energy efficiency standards, including the 8 combinations examined as 

trial standard levels (TSLs). (See chapter 10 for description of the TSLs evaluated in the NOPR 

analysis.) For this reference market share forecast, DOE used the average price for motors in 

each product class, accounting for both space constrained and space-unconstrained motors with a 

single price. DOE estimated that the market shares would take several years to adjust from the 

current market share within each class to its forecast market share. DOE analyzed two cases, 

whose resulting shipments are presented here: 1) a transition over 10 years, beginning in 2015 

and 2) a market share transition complete by 2015, when the standard takes effect. In the first 

case, DOE assumed a linear transition in market share over ten years, from 2015 to 2025. Table 

9.4.4 shows the total shipments of CSIR and CSCR motors during the analysis period 

corresponding to Department’s reference, “Low CSCR”, and “High CSCR” scenarios for each 

trial standard level. The cumulative shipments in DOE’s second market shift scenario (in which 

the shift is complete by 2015) are shown in Table 9.4.5. In chapter 10, DOE presents the 

EERE-2007-BT-STD-0007 COMMENT 17
9-18 

resulting energy savings and net present value as ranges encompassing the results of both of 

these shipments scenarios. 

Table 9.4.4 Cumulative CSIR and CSCR Motor Shipments (Millions) Between 2015 and 

2045 (10-year Market Share Shift Timescale) 

Trial Standard Reference Scenario Low CSCR Scenario High CSCR Scenario 

Level CSIR CSCR CSIR CSCR CSIR CSCR 

No standard* 130.3 6.9 130.3 6.9 130.3 6.9 

1 133.7 3.4 136.0 1.2 104.9 32.3 

2 132.9 4.2 135.8 1.3 98.7 38.4 

3 133.5 3.6 136.0 1.2 102.3 34.8 

4 129.1 8.0 135.5 1.6 89.9 47.2 

5 126.8 10.4 135.1 2.0 81.4 55.7 

6 136.3 0.8 136.3 0.8 136.3 0.9 

7 16.6 120.5 24.9 112.3 16.0 121.1 

8 18.3 118.9 35.2 102.0 16.1 121.1 

* DOE did not use its market share model to predict market shares in the base case; it used its current 

market share estimates. 

Table 9.4.5 Cumulative CSIR and CSCR Motor Shipments (Millions) Between 2015 and 

2045 (Market Share Shift Complete Prior to 2015) 

Trial Standard Reference Scenario Low CSCR Scenario High CSCR Scenario 

Level CSIR CSCR CSIR CSCR CSIR CSCR 

No standard* 130.3 6.9 130.3 6.9 130.3 6.9 

1 134.2 2.9 136.8 0.4 101.3 35.8 

2 133.3 3.8 136.6 0.6 94.3 42.8 

3 134.0 3.2 136.8 0.4 98.4 38.7 

4 128.9 8.2 136.3 0.8 84.3 52.8 

5 126.3 10.9 135.8 1.3 74.6 62.5 

6 137.1 0.0 137.1 0.0 137.1 0.0 

7 0.8 136.4 10.2 127.0 0.0 137.1 

8 2.6 134.5 21.9 115.2 0.1 137.0 

* DOE did not use its market share model to predict market shares in the base case; it used its current 

market share estimates. 

 The National Impact Analysis spreadsheet tool that accompanies this TSD provides 

shipment estimates for each product class in each year, under each of the TSLs. The tool allows 

the user to select among several scenarios, including the high- and low-CSCR scenarios (with 

user-adjustable transition time to the new market shares), different market and economic growth 

rates, and different market elasticity models. 

 One of the alternate scenarios DOE modeled was a market share model which treats 

space-constrained and non-space-constrained applications separately, referred to as the 

Department’s “segmented market” model. This model calculates the market share of CSIR and 

EERE-2007-BT-STD-0007 COMMENT 17
9-19 

CSCR motors within each combination of motor speed and power separately for the two types of 

customers. For example, a customer with a space-constrained application may face a 

significantly larger price difference between CSIR and CSCR motors for their application than a 

customer with no stack-length space constraints. This results in significantly different overall 

market shares than using average prices when one or both motor categories have large price 

differences between constrained and unconstrained designs. Table 9.4.6 shows the shipments 

forecast by the segmented market model, and assumes that the market share shift is complete 

prior to 2015. Of particular note is that this model predicts significantly less switching between 

CSIR and CSCR motors at TSLs 7 and 8 than the Department’s reference model. This model is 

included in the spreadsheet tool which accompanies this TSD. 

Table 9.4.6 Cumulative CSIR and CSCR Motor Shipments (Millions) Between 2015 and 

2045 (Segmented Market Model, Market Share Shift Complete Prior to 

2015) 

Trial Standard Unconstrained Space Constrained All Motors 

Level CSIR CSCR CSIR CSCR CSIR CSCR 

No standard* 104.2 5.5 26.1 1.4 130.3 6.9 

1 107.1 2.6 27.1 0.4 134.1 3.0 

2 106.2 3.5 27.0 0.4 133.2 3.9 

3 106.0 3.7 27.1 0.3 133.1 4.0 

4 105.6 4.1 21.3 6.1 126.9 10.2 

5 103.5 6.2 21.2 6.3 124.6 12.5 

6 109.7 0.0 26.8 0.6 136.5 0.6 

7 101.3 8.4 0.0 27.4 101.3 35.9 

8 106.3 3.4 0.0 27.4 106.3 30.9 

* DOE did not use its market share model to predict market shares in the base case; it used its current 

market share estimates. 

EERE-2007-BT-STD-0007 COMMENT 17
9-20 

 

REFERENCES 

1

 National Electrical Manufacturers Association, Joint NEMA/SMMA Bulletin of US Sales 

of Selected Small Motors in 2000, September 5, 2001. 

2

 DOE examined online catalogs for A.O. Smith, Baldor, Emerson, Leeson, Marathon, 

Weg, Lincoln, McMaster Carr and Regal-Beloit motors. A spreadsheet tool showing the 

collected motors and their characteristics is available at <http://>. 

3

 The work by Easton Consultants is summarized in Appendix B of Determination 

Analysis Technical Support Document: Analysis of Energy Conservation Standards for 

Small Electric Motors, June 2006 

<http://www1.eere.energy.gov/buildings/appliance_standards/commercial/pdfs/small_mo

tors_tsd.pdf> 

4

 Determination Analysis Technical Support Document: Analysis of Energy Conservation 

Standards for Small Electric Motors, June 2006 

<http://www1.eere.energy.gov/buildings/appliance_standards/commercial/pdfs/small_mo

tors_tsd.pdf> 

5

 Energy Conservation Standards Rulemaking Framework Document for Small Electric 

Motors 

<http://www1.eere.energy.gov/buildings/appliance_standards/commercial/pdfs/small_mo

tors_framework_073007.pdf> 

6

 Transcript of Public Meeting on Energy Conservation Standards for Small Electric 

Motors, January 30, 2009, 

<http://www1.eere.energy.gov/buildings/appliance_standards/commercial/pdfs/transcript

_small_motors_standards_meeting.pdf> 

7

 Joe Evans. PentAir Water Pumps, personal communication, March 5, 2009. 

8

 U.S. Census Bureau. Current Industrial Report MA333P, Pumps (except hydraulic) and 

Compressors – 2007. 9

 U.S. Census Bureau. Economic Census 2002, Industry Statistics Sampler: NAICS 

333922, Industrial and Commercial Fan and Blower Manufacturing.

<http://www.census.gov/econ/census02/data/industry/E333922.HTM> 

10 See, for example, Roach Conveyors <www.roachconveyors.com>, or Material Flow and 

Conveyor Systems <www.materialflow.com> 

11 U.S. Census Bureau. Economic Census 2002, Industry Statistics Sampler: NAICS 

333412, Industrial and Commercial Fan and Blower Manufacturing.

<http://www.census.gov/econ/census02/data/industry/E333412.HTM> 

12 U.S. Department of Energy-Energy Information Administration. An Updated Annual 

Energy Outlook 2009 Reference Case Reflecting Provisions of the American Recovery 

and Reinvestment Act and Recent Changes in the Economic Outlook, April, 2009. 

Washington, DC. SR/OIAF/2009-03. 

<www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/servicerpt/stimulus/pdf/sroiaf(2009)03.pdf> and U.S. Department 

of Energy-Energy Information Administration. Annual Energy Outlook 2009 with 

Projections to 2030 , March 2009. Washington, DC. 

<www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/pdf/0383(2009).pdf> 

EERE-2007-BT-STD-0007 COMMENT 17
9-21 

 

13 MG1 is a standards publication for electric motors and generators (MG) issued by NEMA 

and updated periodically. The particular issue of MG1 explicitly cited in the legislation 

for the purposes of defining the scope of coverage for the small electric motors 

rulemaking is MG1-1987. 

EERE-2007-BT-STD-0007 COMMENT 17