Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

OE ENERGY

MARKET SNAPSHOT

Central Version – Data Through March 20

Office of Enforcement

Federal Energy Regulatory Commission

April 2016
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

Natural Gas and Fuels MCentral
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

Midwest Day-Ahead Natural Gas Prices

Averaged Annually/Seasonally

Midwest Natural Gas Market: Annual Hub Prices

Source: Derived from ICE data Notes:

U

Average Day

Ahead Prices

($/MMBtu)

Chicago

City Gate MichCon

AECO C

Hub

Natural

Gas/USD

Dawn

Ontario

USD

NNG/N

Ventu

Annual 3.85 3.91 3.09 4.08 Summer 3.84 3.96 2.94 4.15 Winter 2013/2014 7.42 7.81 4.36 8.68 Annual 5.52 5.75 4.03 6.13 Summer 4.24 4.33 3.90 4.36 Winter 2014/2015 3.54 3.55 2.58 3.80 Annual 2.73 2.81 2.11 2.93 Summer 2.69 2.84 2.16 2.88 Winter 2015/2016 2.04 2.05 1.52 2.09 Annual 2.03 2.03 1.28 2.09 Summer 1.98 1.97 0.80 2.02 Winter 2016/2017

2013 2014 2015 2016 YTD

3
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

Midwest Day-Ahead Prices

Midwest Natural Gas Market: Day-Ahead Prices

Source: Derived from ICE data Notes:

Upda

$0$2$4$6$8

$10$12$14

Day-Ahead Prices ($/MMBtu)

Chicago City Gate MichConAECO (USD/MMBtu) Dawn Ontario USDNorthern Natural Ventura

$0

$10$20$30

2013 2014 2015 

30 Day Moving Av

4
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

Midwest Natural Gas Market: Average Basis to Henry Hub

Source: Derived from ICE data Notes:

U

Midwest Day-Ahead Basis

-$3

$8

$18$28$38$48$58

Day Ahead Basis ($/MMBtu)

Chicago City Gate Basis MichCon BasisAECO (USD/MMBtu) Basis Dawn Ontario USD Northern Natural Ventura Basis

‐$5

$0$5

$10$15$20 30D Moving 

5
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

Midwest Natural Gas Market: Average Monthly Basis

Source: Derived from ICE data Notes:

U

Midwest Monthly Average Basis Value To Henry 

-$2-$1-$1

$0$1$1$2$2

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

2014 2015 

Day-Ahead Basis Averaged Monthly 

($/MMBtu)

Chicago City Gate Basis MichCon BasisAECO Basis Dawn Ontario BaNorthern Natural Ventura Basis

6
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

Daily Midwest Natural Gas Demand All Sectors

Midwest Natural Gas Market: Daily Demand

Source: Derived from Bentek Energy dataNote: Midwest is defined as Michigan, Indiana, Illinois, Wisconsin, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, South Dakota, and North Dakota 

05

10152025303540

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov De

Bcfd

2011-2015 Range 2016

7
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

Midwest Natural Gas Consumption for Power Gener

Midwest Natural Gas Market: NG Consumption for Power Generation

Source: Derived from Bentek Energy dataNote: Midwest is defined as Michigan, Indiana, Illinois, Wisconsin, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, South Dakota, and North Dakota 

0

1,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,000

MMcfd

 2011 - 2015 Range2016

8
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

Daily Texas Natural Gas Demand All Sectors

Texas Natural Gas Market: Daily Demand

Source: Derived from Bentek Energy data 

02468

101214161820

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov De

Bcfd

2011-2015 Range 2016

9
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

Texas Natural Gas Consumption for Power Genera

Texas Natural Gas Market: NG Consumption for Power Generation

Source: Derived from Bentek Energy data 

0

1,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,000

MMcfd

 2011 - 2015 Range2016

10
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

Electricity MarketsCentral
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

MISO Real Time Prices—Two Year History 

Midwest Electricity Market: MISO Real Time Prices

12

‐150‐100

‐50

0

50

100150200250

Weighted Daily Avg ($/MWh)

Prior Year Last 30 days Indiana Hub Daily Avg Real TimLast 30 days Illinois Hub Daily Avg Real Time Price was $26.86. Last 30 days Michigan Hub Avg Real Time PLast 30 days Minnesota Hub Daily Avg Real Time Price was $18.63.

Source: Genscape via Bloomberg
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

MISO System Daily Average Load —Two Year Histo

Midwest Electricity Markets Overview: MISO Average Daily Load

13

0

20406080

100120

Feb-13

Mar-13

Apr-13

May-13

Jun-13

Jul-13

Aug-13

Sep-13

Oct-13

Nov-13

Dec-13

Jan-14

Feb-14

Mar-14

Apr-14

May-14

Jun-14

Jul-14

Aug-14

Sep-14

Oct-14

N14

Weighted Daily Avg Load (GW)

Prior Year Last 30 days average on peak load was 93 GW.

Source: Genscape via Bloomberg
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

Midwest Electricity Markets Overview: MISO East On-Peak Spark & Dark Spreads

14

MISO East On-Peak Spark & Dark Spreads – One Year 

MISO East On-Peak Spark minus Dark Spread

Sources: Bloomberg Genscape and NYMEX data

‐40‐20

0

20406080

100120

Spark& Dark Spreads ($/MWh)

Last 30 Days Avg On‐Peak Spark Spread was $13.55 per MWh. Last 30 Days Avg On‐Peak Dark Spread wa

-70-60-50-40-30-20-10

0

10

Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug

Difference in Spreads ($/MWh)

NG more profitable. Coal more profitable.(Last 30 day avg $1.64 per MWh.)

Sources (all via Bloomberg): Electricity Price: 

Assumptions:Electricity Price = Indiana Hub On‐Peak DA

NG Price Point = Chicago City Gate Spot

NG Heat Rate = 7000 mmBtu/kWh

Coal Type = Illinois Basin Mid Sulfur

Coal Heat Content = 11800 Btu/lbCoal Heat Rate = 10000 mmBtu/kWh
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

Midwest Electricity Markets Overview: MISO West On-Peak Spark & Dark Spreads

15

MISO West On-Peak Spark & Dark Spreads – One Year 

MISO West On-Peak Spark minus Dark Spread

Sources: Bloomberg Genscape and NYMEX data

‐60‐40‐20

0

20406080

Spark& Dark Spreads ($/MWh)

Last 30 Days Avg On‐Peak Spark Spread was $1.16 per MWh. Last 30 Days Avg On‐Peak Dark Spread 

-80-70-60-50-40-30-20-10

0

Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 A

Difference in Spreads ($/MWh)

NG more profitable. Coal more profitable.(Last 30 day avg $5.42 per MWh.)

Assumptions:Electricity Price = Minnesota Hu

NG Price Point = Chicago City G

NG Heat Rate = 7000 mmBtu/k

Coal Type = Powder River Basin

Coal Heat Content = 8800 Btu/

Coal Heat Rate = 10000 mmBtu

Sources (all via Bloomberg): Electricity P
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

16

East North Central Generation Mix

Midwest Electricity Markets Overview: East North Central Generation MixSources: Bloomberg EIA data

0

10000200003000040000500006000070000

Monthly Generation (GWh)

Coal Generation in Jul '15 was 345Gas Generation in Jul '15 was 589Nuclear Generation in Jul '15 was Othr Renew Generation in Jul '15 wHydro Generation in Jul '15 was 25Oil Generation in Jul '15 was 60 GW

Total Generation in Jul '15 was 55

States: IL, IN, MI, OH, WI
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

17

East South Central Generation Mix

Midwest Electricity Markets Overview: East South Central Generation Mix

Sources: Bloomberg EIA data

0

5000

1000015000200002500030000350004000045000

Monthly Generation (GWh)

Coal Generation in Jul '15 was 17Gas Generation in Jul '15 was 90Nuclear Generation in Jul '15 waHydro Generation in Jul '15 was Othr Renew Generation in Jul '15 Oil Generation in Jul '15 was 24 G

Total Generation in Jul '15 was 3

States: AL, KY, MS, TN