HDR1012000160030415971500Milk Production                                        
                                                                                
Released April 15, 1997, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service        
(NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture.  For     
information on "Milk Production" call Kevin Hintzman at (202) 720-4448, office  
hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET.                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                 March Production Up 0.3 Percent                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
Milk production in the 20 major States during March totaled 11.5 billion        
pounds, up 0.3 percent from production in these same States in March 1996.      
February revised production, at 10.3 billion pounds was down 2.3 percent from   
February 1996.                                                                  
                                                                                
                                                                                
Production per cow in the 20 major States averaged 1,491 pounds for March,      
22 pounds above March 1996.                                                     
                                                                                
                                                                                
The number of cows on farms in the 20 major States was 7.73 million head,       
90,000 head less than March 1996 and 11,000 head less than February 1997.       
                                                                                
                                                                                
The January-March quarterly production of milk for the U.S. was 38.8 billion    
pounds, down 0.6 percent from the January-March period in 1996.  The average    
number of milk cows in the U.S. during the January-March quarter was            
9.26 million head, 133,000 head less than the same period a year earlier.       
                                                                                
                                                                                
                  Grain and Other Concentrates Fed                              
                                                                                
Grain and other concentrates fed to milk cows on April 1, 1997, averaged        
19.5 pounds per cow, 0.9 pound more than April 1, 1996.                         
                                                                                
                                                                                
               Value of Grain and Other Concentrates                            
                                                                                
The value of grain and other concentrates fed to milk cows on April 1, 1997,    
averaged $8.79 per hundredweight, $.36 less than April 1, 1996.                 
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                               ******                                           
                                                                                
                                                                                
                               Note:                                            
                                                                                
The revisions in Arizona data were made because information were not available  
for the annual report in February 1997.                                         
                                                                                
         Milk Cows and Production:  By Quarter, United States, 1996-97          
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
        :    Milk Cows  1/   :  Milk per Cow  2/ :     Milk Production 2/       
        :---------------------------------------------------------------------- 
Quarter :          :         :         :         :         :         :          
        :  1996    :  1997   :  1996   :  1997   :  1996   :  1997   :% Change  
        :          :         :         :         :         :         :from 1996 
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
        :    ---- 1,000 ----          Pounds         Million Pounds             
        :                                                                       
Jan-Mar :    9,397     9,264     4,156     4,190    39,053    38,812      -0.6  
Apr-Jun :    9,369               4,231              39,638                      
Jul-Sep :    9,338               4,035              37,674                      
Oct-Dec :    9,300               4,083              37,966                      
        :                                                                       
Annual  :    9,351              16,505             154,331                      
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
1/  Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh.                          
2/  Excludes milk sucked by calves.                                             
                                                                                
       Milk Cows and Production:  By Month, 20 Selected States, 1996-97         
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
        :    Milk Cows  1/   :  Milk per Cow  2/ :     Milk Production 2/       
        :---------------------------------------------------------------------- 
 Month  :          :         :         :         :         :         :          
        :  1996    :  1997   :  1996   :  1997   :  1996   :  1997   :% Change  
        :          :         :         :         :         :         :from 1996 
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
        :    ---- 1,000 ----          Pounds         Million Pounds             
        :                                                                       
Jan     :    7,846     7,757     1,415     1,439    11,103    11,163       0.5  
Feb     :    7,828     7,743     1,348     1,331    10,549    10,309      -2.3  
Mar     :    7,822     7,732     1,469     1,491    11,487    11,527       0.3  
Apr     :    7,818               1,441              11,265                      
May     :    7,816               1,479              11,560                      
Jun     :    7,818               1,398              10,926                      
Jul     :    7,815               1,400              10,944                      
Aug     :    7,802               1,382              10,786                      
Sep     :    7,795               1,342              10,459                      
Oct     :    7,788               1,391              10,831                      
Nov     :    7,775               1,350              10,499                      
Dec     :    7,765               1,418              11,013                      
        :                                                                       
Annual  :    7,807              16,833             131,422                      
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
1/  Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh.                          
2/  Excludes milk sucked by calves.                                             
                                                                                
                Estimated Milk Production, United States, 1996-97               
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
        :            by Month                    Cumulative                     
        :---------------------------------------------------------------------- 
 Month  :          :         :         :         :         :                    
        :  1996    :  1997   :% Change :  1996   :  1997   :  % Change          
        :          :         :from 1996:         :         :  from 1996         
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
        :   Million Pounds                 Million Pounds                       
        :                                                                       
Jan     :   13,085    13,129       0.3    13,085    13,129       0.3            
Feb     :   12,431    12,125      -2.5    25,516    25,254      -1.0            
Mar     :   13,537    13,558       0.2    39,053    38,812      -0.6            
Apr     :   13,230                        52,283                                
May     :   13,576                        65,859                                
Jun     :   12,832                        78,691                                
Jul     :   12,809                        91,500                                
Aug     :   12,624                       104,124                                
Sep     :   12,241                       116,365                                
Oct     :   12,714                       129,079                                
Nov     :   12,324                       141,403                                
Dec     :   12,928                       154,331                                
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
                                                                                
              Milk Cows and Production:  By State,  March 1996-97               
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
        :    Milk Cows  1/   :  Milk per Cow  2/ :     Milk Production 2/       
        :---------------------------------------------------------------------- 
 State  :          :         :         :         :         :         :          
        :   1996   :  1997   :  1996   :  1997   :  1996   :  1997   :% Change  
        :          :         :         :         :         :         :from 1996 
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
        :    ---- 1,000 ----          Pounds         Million Pounds             
        :                                                                       
AZ      :      119       126     1,960     2,055       233       259      11.2  
CA      :    1,260     1,274     1,725     1,810     2,174     2,306       6.1  
FL      :      156       160     1,475     1,480       230       237       3.0  
ID      :      247       264     1,500     1,540       371       407       9.7  
IL      :      157       148     1,320     1,360       207       201      -2.9  
IN      :      140       140     1,380     1,310       193       183      -5.2  
IA      :      249       248     1,300     1,370       324       340       4.9  
KY      :      156       147     1,075     1,060       168       156      -7.1  
MI      :      321       306     1,485     1,520       477       465      -2.5  
MN      :      595       590     1,400     1,385       833       817      -1.9  
MO      :      183       174     1,245     1,185       228       206      -9.6  
NM      :      193       199     1,675     1,730       323       344       6.5  
NY      :      700       700     1,460     1,410     1,022       987      -3.4  
OH      :      285       283     1,380     1,360       393       385      -2.0  
PA      :      645       639     1,465     1,470       945       939      -0.6  
TX      :      400       390     1,480     1,445       592       564      -4.7  
VT      :      157       155     1,425     1,405       224       218      -2.7  
VA      :      127       124     1,265     1,290       161       160      -0.6  
WA      :      262       265     1,685     1,720       441       456       3.4  
WI      :    1,470     1,400     1,325     1,355     1,948     1,897      -2.6  
        :                                                                       
20 State:                                                                       
 Total  :    7,822     7,732     1,469     1,491    11,487    11,527       0.3  
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
1/  Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh.                          
2/  Excludes milk sucked by calves.                                             
                                                                                
           Milk Cows and Production:  By State,  February 1996-97 1/            
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
        :    Milk Cows  2/   :  Milk per Cow  3/ :     Milk Production 3/       
        :---------------------------------------------------------------------- 
 State  :          :         :         :         :         :         :          
        :   1996   :  1997   :  1996   :  1997   :   1996  :  1997   :% Change  
        :          :         :         :         :         :         :from 1996 
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
        :    ---- 1,000 ----          Pounds          Million Pounds            
        :                                                                       
AZ      :      118       124     1,770     1,840       209       228       9.1  
CA      :    1,260     1,272     1,585     1,595     1,997     2,029       1.6  
FL      :      155       159     1,405     1,430       218       227       4.1  
ID      :      246       266     1,370     1,360       337       362       7.4  
IL      :      157       149     1,260     1,270       198       189      -4.5  
IN      :      140       140     1,260     1,180       176       165      -6.2  
IA      :      250       249     1,180     1,185       295       295       0.0  
KY      :      157       150       980       965       154       145      -5.8  
MI      :      322       310     1,365     1,370       440       425      -3.4  
MN      :      600       590     1,285     1,245       771       735      -4.7  
MO      :      183       174     1,125     1,045       206       182     -11.7  
NM      :      193       197     1,520     1,555       293       306       4.4  
NY      :      700       700     1,340     1,260       938       882      -6.0  
OH      :      285       285     1,290     1,260       368       359      -2.4  
PA      :      645       639     1,345     1,290       868       824      -5.1  
TX      :      400       390     1,345     1,295       538       505      -6.1  
VT      :      157       155     1,320     1,290       207       200      -3.4  
VA      :      127       124     1,165     1,180       148       146      -1.4  
WA      :      263       266     1,530     1,525       402       406       1.0  
WI      :    1,470     1,404     1,215     1,210     1,786     1,699      -4.9  
        :                                                                       
20 State:                                                                       
 Total  :    7,828     7,743     1,348     1,331    10,549    10,309      -2.3  
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
1/  1997 revised.  2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh.        
3/  Excludes milk sucked by calves.                                             
                                                                                
             Milk Cows and Production:  By State and United States              
                      Revised October-December,  1995-96                        
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
        :     Oct-Dec Milk Cows 1/     :  Oct-Dec Milk Production 2/ :          
 State  :------------------------------------------------------------:% Change  
        :      1995     :     1996     :     1995     :     1996     :from 1995 
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
        :            ---- 1,000 ----            -- Million Pounds --   Percent  
        :                                                                       
AL      :            32             31            112            103      -8.0  
AK      :            .7            0.8           3.07           3.52      14.7  
AZ      :           113            122            555            630      13.5  
AR      :            59             56            174            165      -5.2  
CA      :         1,258          1,269          6,252          6,586       5.3  
CO      :            82             84            389            413       6.2  
CT      :            31             29            129            118      -8.5  
DE      :            10            9.5           35.1           33.1      -5.7  
FL      :           156            157            547            596       9.0  
GA      :            98             98            363            370       1.9  
HI      :          10.3            9.5           31.3           29.1      -7.0  
ID      :           242            266          1,089          1,230      12.9  
IL      :           159            151            534            557       4.3  
IN      :           142            140            539            535      -0.7  
IA      :           250            250            994            966      -2.8  
KS      :            83             81            295            310       5.1  
KY      :           159            151            477            458      -4.0  
LA      :            79             78            210            205      -2.4  
ME      :            39             39            156            158       1.3  
MD      :            91             85            327            321      -1.8  
MA      :            27             26            110            107      -2.7  
MI      :           326            314          1,349          1,330      -1.4  
MN      :           600            595          2,262          2,300       1.7  
MS      :            53             49            161            161       0.0  
MO      :           186            175            628            574      -8.6  
MT      :            20             20             77             77       0.0  
NE      :            72             69            273            264      -3.3  
NV      :            23             26          104.2            123      18.0  
NH      :            20             18             82             76      -7.3  
NJ      :            23             21             76             71      -6.6  
NM      :           196            196            883            935       5.9  
NY      :           702            701          2,840          2,757      -2.9  
NC      :            84             79            329            313      -4.9  
ND      :            63             61            198            184      -7.1  
OH      :           287            285          1,113          1,063      -4.5  
OK      :            97             95            320            300      -6.2  
OR      :            96             92            400            388      -3.0  
PA      :           647            643          2,624          2,587      -1.4  
RI      :           2.1            1.9            7.9            7.8      -1.3  
SC      :            26             26             94             97       3.2  
SD      :           116            110            371            352      -5.1  
TN      :           122            114            414            401      -3.1  
TX      :           400            393          1,485          1,461      -1.6  
UT      :            88             90            363            391       7.7  
VT      :           157            155            634            631      -0.5  
VA      :           128            126            473            453      -4.2  
WA      :           265            266          1,280          1,308       2.2  
WV      :            21             19             65             60      -7.7  
WI      :         1,480          1,421          5,491          5,386      -1.9  
WY      :           5.9              6           21.5           21.6       0.5  
        :                                                                       
US   3/ :         9,428          9,300         37,740         37,966       0.6  
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
1/  Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh.                          
2/  Excludes milk sucked by calves.                                             
3/  Milk cows will not add due to rounding.                                     
                                                                                
             Milk Cows and Production:  By State and United States              
                      Preliminary January-March,  1996-97                       
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
        :     Jan-Mar Milk Cows 1/     :  Jan-Mar Milk Production 2/ :          
 State  :------------------------------------------------------------:% Change  
        :      1996     :     1997     :     1996     :     1997     :from 1996 
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
        :            ---- 1,000 ----            -- Million Pounds --            
        :                                                                       
AL      :            32             31            127            115      -9.4  
AK      :           0.8            0.9            3.1           3.47      11.9  
AZ      :           118            124            653            709       8.6  
AR      :            59             56            186            176      -5.4  
CA      :         1,260          1,272          6,282          6,519       3.8  
CO      :            83             85            396            420       6.1  
CT      :            31             29            133            123      -7.5  
DE      :           9.7           10.5           37.4             41       9.6  
FL      :           155            159            666            705       5.9  
GA      :            97             97            412            412       0.0  
HI      :           9.6            9.5           33.4           31.7      -5.1  
ID      :           246            266          1,073          1,171       9.1  
IL      :           157            149            610            582      -4.6  
IN      :           140            140            550            533      -3.1  
IA      :           250            249            934            960       2.8  
KS      :            85             82            310            330       6.5  
KY      :           157            149            485            461      -4.9  
LA      :            78             78            233            223      -4.3  
ME      :            40             39            161            162       0.6  
MD      :            89             86            338            340       0.6  
MA      :            27             26            111            108      -2.7  
MI      :           323            309          1,380          1,350      -2.2  
MN      :           598            592          2,420          2,361      -2.4  
MS      :            53             48            182            183       0.5  
MO      :           184            174            651            600      -7.8  
MT      :            20             19             75             74      -1.3  
NE      :            69             69            268            265      -1.1  
NV      :            24             26            107            117       9.3  
NH      :            20             18             85             82      -3.5  
NJ      :            23             21             78             75      -3.8  
NM      :           193            198            919            980       6.6  
NY      :           700            700          2,940          2,835      -3.6  
NC      :            83             77            344            325      -5.5  
ND      :            63             59            208            183     -12.0  
OH      :           285            284          1,139          1,124      -1.3  
OK      :            97             97            325            325       0.0  
OR      :            94             92            394            386      -2.0  
PA      :           646            640          2,723          2,651      -2.6  
RI      :           2.1              2              8            8.2       2.5  
SC      :            26             26            105            107       1.9  
SD      :           113            106            375            339      -9.6  
TN      :           119            113            433            400      -7.6  
TX      :           400            390          1,682          1,611      -4.2  
UT      :            90             92            358            373       4.2  
VT      :           157            155            650            633      -2.6  
VA      :           127            124            467            465      -0.4  
WA      :           263            266          1,278          1,301       1.8  
WV      :            21             19             68             65      -4.4  
WI      :         1,472          1,404          5,637          5,448      -3.4  
WY      :             6            6.1           20.4           20.7       1.5  
        :                                                                       
US   3/ :         9,397          9,264         39,053         38,812      -0.6  
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
1/  Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh.                          
2/  Excludes milk sucked by calves.                                             
3/  Milk cows will not add due to rounding.                                     
          Grain and Other Concentrates:  Quantity Fed Daily and Value           
                 By State and United States, April 1, 1996-97                   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
            :Grain and Other Concentrates : Value per 100 Pounds of Concentrate 
   State    :   Fed Daily per Milk Cow    :       Ration Fed to Milk Cows       
            :------------------------------------------------------------------ 
            :     1996     :    1997      :      1996      :       1997         
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
            :        ----- Pounds -----               -------- Dollars -------- 
            :                                                                   
    AL      :       20.1            19.4              9.80                9.50  
    AK      :       19.5            19.5             13.80               14.80  
    AZ      :       19.3            23.0              8.75                8.40  
    AR      :       19.0            18.5              9.75                9.40  
    CA      :       19.0            21.0              9.10                8.40  
    CO      :       23.0            23.0              8.90                7.80  
    CT      :       17.5            18.0             10.60               10.80  
    DE      :       13.9            13.8              9.80                9.20  
    FL      :       22.0            30.0              8.00                8.10  
    GA      :       24.0            24.0              9.20                9.10  
    ID      :       23.0            22.5              8.10                7.70  
    IL      :       16.9            18.8              9.60                9.00  
    IN      :       17.7            17.6              8.30               10.00  
    IA      :       15.1            16.7              7.90                7.80  
    KS      :       19.0            19.0              8.80                8.60  
    KY      :       16.8            17.3             10.30               10.05  
    LA      :       19.0            19.6              9.85                9.80  
    ME      :       16.5            16.5             10.70               10.80  
    MD      :       15.4            15.9             10.30               10.20  
    MA      :       16.0            15.0             10.20               10.70  
    MI      :       19.0            16.5              8.10                8.40  
    MN      :       17.8            18.1              8.90                8.20  
    MS      :       18.7            18.7              9.40                9.50  
    MO      :       18.0            18.5              8.80                8.70  
    MT      :       17.1            16.5              8.80                7.90  
    NE      :       17.1            17.0              8.10                7.50  
    NV      :       20.0            22.5              8.90                9.00  
    NH      :       16.5            17.5             10.55               11.20  
    NJ      :       15.6            15.8             11.45               11.00  
    NM      :       26.0            28.0              8.20                7.40  
    NY      :       15.2            15.3             10.80               10.80  
    NC      :       18.6            18.8             10.50               10.30  
    ND      :       16.6            16.0              7.40                6.45  
    OH      :       17.5            17.6              9.20                9.30  
    OK      :       20.0            21.0              9.70                8.80  
    OR      :       19.5            18.5              9.50                9.90  
    PA      :       18.0            18.0             10.30               10.50  
    RI      :       15.0            15.0             10.10               10.00  
    SC      :       19.0            22.5              9.30                9.35  
    SD      :       16.3            15.9              8.00                7.20  
    TN      :       17.0            18.0             10.70               10.30  
    TX      :       23.0            24.2              9.40                9.10  
    UT      :       17.1            17.5              9.20                8.45  
    VT      :       15.5            15.0             10.80               10.40  
    VA      :       15.8            16.7              9.90                9.70  
    WA      :       19.0            21.0              9.30                9.10  
    WV      :       14.5            16.0             10.00               10.00  
    WI      :       18.7            18.5              8.40                7.70  
    WY      :       13.0            13.2              8.05                7.10  
            :                                                                   
    US      :       18.6            19.5              9.15                8.79  
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
                                                                                
                                                                                
      Milk Cows:  Number by Month, Arizona and 20 States, Revised, 1996 1/      
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
     State    :   Jan    :   Feb    :   Mar    :   Apr    :   May    :   Jun    
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              :                              1,000                              
AZ            :    118        118        119        119        119        120   
              :                                                                 
20 States 2/  :  7,846      7,828      7,822      7,818      7,816      7,818   
              :-----------------------------------------------------------------
              :         :         :        :        :        :        : Annual  
              :   Jul   :   Aug   :  Sep   :  Oct   :  Nov   :  Dec   : Avg. 3/ 
              :-----------------------------------------------------------------
AZ            :    122       122      122      122      122      122       120  
              :                                                                 
20 States 2/  :  7,815     7,802    7,795    7,788    7,775    7,765     7,807  
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                                
                                                                                
 Milk Produced: Rate per Cow, by Month, Arizona and 20 States, Revised, 1996 4/ 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
     State    :   Jan    :   Feb    :   Mar    :   Apr    :   May    :   Jun    
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              :                             Pounds                              
AZ            :  1,790      1,770      1,960      1,905      1,905      1,700   
              :                                                                 
20 States 2/  :  1,415      1,348      1,469      1,441      1,479      1,398   
              :-----------------------------------------------------------------
              :         :         :        :        :        :        : Annual  
              :   Jul   :   Aug   :  Sep   :  Oct   :  Nov   :  Dec   :  Avg.   
              :-----------------------------------------------------------------
AZ            :  1,445     1,440    1,475    1,620    1,690    1,855    20,608  
              :                                                                 
20 States 2/  :  1,400     1,382    1,342    1,391    1,350    1,418    16,833  
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                                
                                                                                
   Milk Production:  Total by Month, Arizona and 20 States, Revised,  1996 4/   
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
     State    :   Jan    :   Feb    :   Mar    :   Apr    :   May    :   Jun    
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              :                         Million Pounds                          
AZ            :     211        209        233        227        227        204  
              :                                                                 
20 States 2/  :  11,103     10,549     11,487     11,265     11,560     10,926  
              :-----------------------------------------------------------------
              :         :         :         :        :        :        : Annual 
              :   Jul   :   Aug   :   Sep   :  Oct   :  Nov   :  Dec   : Total  
              :-----------------------------------------------------------------
AZ            :    176       176       180       198      206      226    2,473 
                                                                                
20 States 2/  : 10,944    10,786    10,459    10,831   10,499   11,013  131,422 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh.  2/  AZ, CA, FL, ID, IL,  
IN, IA, KY, MI, MN, MO, NM, NY, OH, PA, TX, VT, VA, WA, and WI. 3/ Average based
on monthly totals. 4/ Excludes milk sucked by calves.                           
                                                                                
               Milk Cows and Production:  Number and Total Produced             
              by Quarter, Arizona, and United States, Revised,  1996            
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
        :           Milk Cows 1/            :        Milk Production 2/         
  State :-----------------------------------------------------------------------
        :Jan-Mar :Apr-Jun :Jul-Sep :Oct-Dec :Jan-Mar :Apr-Jun :Jul-Sep :Oct-Dec 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
        : ---------- 1,000 Head ----------    --------- Million Pounds -------- 
        :                                                                       
AZ      :   118      119      122      122       653      658      532      630 
        :                                                                       
US 3/   : 9,397    9,369    9,338    9,300    39,053   39,638   37,674   37,966 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/  Quarterly average includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh.        
2/  Excludes milk sucked by calves.  3/  Will not add due to rounding.          
                                                                                
                                                                                
                       Reliability Statement                                    
                                                                                
Survey Procedures:  Primary data used to determine these estimates were         
                    obtained from a sample of producers.  Individual States     
maintain a list of all known milk producers and information on the size of      
their herd.  States use all known sources of producers to ensure that their     
lists are as complete as possible. Generally, all large producers and a sample  
of small producers are included in the survey.  Questionnaires are mailed to    
producers near the end of the month to obtain data for the first day of the     
month.  Additional reports are obtained by telephone, as needed, to supplement  
the mail response.                                                              
                                                                                
                                                                                
Estimation Procedures:  State offices prepare these estimates using survey      
                        indications, historic trends, and any available         
administrative data. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the             
Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness.                               
                                                                                
                                                                                
Revision Policy:  Milk production, rate per cow, and number of cows are         
                  subject to revision the following month for monthly States    
or the following quarter for the quarterly States.  Normally, Federal Market    
Order sales are the main basis for revisions. However, data for all orders are  
not available in time for this revision.  Estimates are again subject to        
revisions in February each year based on additional administrative data.  In    
the event that additional changes are necessary, a third revision is possible   
in February the following year.  Estimates are again reviewed after data from   
the five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions are made after  
that date.                                                                      
                                                                                
                                                                                
Reliability:  Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in the   
              sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability.     
Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions,       
duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data.    
The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly.  They are minimized    
through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a     
careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness.         
                                                                                
To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report,  
the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items on the next page. The  
"Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance     
and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates.  The   
"Root Mean Square Error" for milk cow inventory estimates over the past 10      
quarters is 1.1 percent.  This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the       
final January-March estimate will not be above or below the current estimate    
of 9.26 million head by more than 1.1 percent, or about 102,000 head.  Chances  
are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 2.0 percent, or about       
185,000 head (the 90 percent confidence level).                                 
                Reliability of January-March Milk Estimates 1/                  
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
             :        :              :    Difference Between    :               
             :        :              :      First and Final     :    Number of  
             :  Root  :     90%      :         Estimates  1/    :    Quarters   
    Item     :  Mean  :  Confidence  :------------------------------------------
             : Square :    Level     :        :         :       : First : First 
             :  Error :              : Average: Smallest:Largest: Above : Below 
             :        :              :        :         :       : Final : Final 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             :   - Percent -     ---------- Mil Lbs. ----------     - Number -  
             :                                                                  
Milk         :   0.5     0.9     349     169       30      315      8       2   
  Production :                                                                  
             :                  --------- 1,000 Head ----------                 
             :                                                                  
All Milk     :   1.1     2.0     185      91        5      187     10       0   
  Cows       :                                                                  
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/  Based on records for the past 10 January-March quarters.                    
                                                                                
                                                                                
The next "Milk Production" report will be released at 3:00 p.m. ET on           
May 15, 1997.                                                                   
                                                                                
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