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NIST

_PUBLICATIONS

NISTIR 85-3273-13

(Rev. 4/98)

Energy Price Indices and Discount Factors

for Life-Cycle Cost Analysis - April 1998

Sieglinde K. Fuller

Annual Supplement to

NIST Handbook 135 and

NBS Special Publication 709

QC Federal Energy Management Program

100

. U56

HO. 85-3273

-13

1S98

April 1998

NISTIR 85-3273-13

ENERGY PRICE INDICES AND DISCOUNT FACTORS

FOR LIFE-CYCLE COST ANALYSIS

Annual Supplement to NIST Handbook 135 and NBS Special Publication 709

April 1, 1998 to March 31, 1999

Data for the Federal Methodology for Life-Cycle Cost Analysis, Title 10, CFR, Part 436, Subpart A;

and for the Energy Conservation Mandatory Performance Standards for New

Federal Residential Buildings, Title 10, CFR, Part 435

Sieglinde K. Fuller Office of Applied Economics

April 1998

Building and Fire Research Laboratory

National Institute of Standards and Technology

Gaithersburg, Maryland 20899

Sponsored by:

The Federal Energy Management Program

U.S. Department of Energy

Washington, DC 20585

U.S. Department of Commerce

William A. Daley, Secretary

Technology Administration

Gary R. Bachula, Acting Under Secretaryfor Technology

National Institute of Standards and Technology

Raymond G. Kammer, Director

ABSTRACT

This is the April 1998 edition of energy price indices and discount factors for performing life-cycle cost analyses

of energy and water conservation and renewable energy projects in federal facilities. It will be effective from April

1 , 1998 to March 31, 1999. This publication supports the federal life-cycle costing methodology by updating the

energy' price projections and discount factors that are described, explained, and illustrated in NIST Handbook 135

(HB 135, Life-Cycle CostingManualfor the Federal EnergyManagement Program.) It supports private-sector

life-cycle cost analysis by updating the energy price indices that are described, explained, and illustrated in NBS

Special Publication 709 (SP 709).
PREFACE

This is the April 1998 Annual Supplement to NIST Handbook 135, Life-Cycle Costing Manualfor the

Federal EnergyManagement Program. The annual supplement provides energy price indices and discount

factors for use with the Federal Energy Management Program's procedures for life-cycle cost analysis, as established by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) in Subpart A of Part 436 of Title 10 of the Code of

Federal Regulations (10 CFR Part 436, Subpart A), and amplified in NIST Handbook 135. These indices

and factors are provided as an aid to implementing life-cycle cost evaluations of potential energy and water

conservation and renewable energy investments in existing and new federally owned and leased buildings.

Until April 1997, the Annual Supplement to NIST Handbook 135 was published in October of each year

for use throughout the following fiscal year. However, the energy price projections from DOE's Energy

Information Administration (EIA) that serve as the basis of much of this report are released in January, and

the discount rates from the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) Circular A-94 are released in February, so that much of the data in this report were out of date after only a few months of their intended

life. As a result, DOE requested that NIST produce this Annual Supplement as soon as practical after the

necessary data are available. This edition supersedes the edition released in April 1997. In future years NIST will continue to produce the Annual Supplement in April. This Annual Supplement is intended for use from April 1, 1998 to March 31, 1999. The April 1998 edition of the NIST BLCC program and related NIST software for LCC analysis are being released at the same time as this Annual Supplement, for use

over the same time period. These software products are discussed on the next page.

At the request of a number of users, DOS text files of both the underlying EIA energy price projections and

the tables in this Annual Supplement have been made available by NIST. For information on obtaining

these files, contact the author by e-mail at sieglinde.fuller@nist.gov.

The life-cycle costing methods and procedures as set forth in 10 CFR, Part 436, Subpart A, are to be

followed by all federal agencies, unless specifically exempted, in evaluating the cost effectiveness of

potential energy and water conservation and renewable energy investments in federally owned and leased

buildings.

As called for by legislation, the National Institute of Standards and Technology has provided technical

assistance to the U.S. Department of Energy in the development and implementation of life-cycle costing

methods and procedures. This is the second of a three-volume set which together provide the methods,

data, and computational tools for life-cycle cost analysis of federal energy projects.

Included in the three-volume set for federal life-cycle cost analysis are the following:

(1) Life-Cycle Costing Manualfor the Federal Energy Management Program, National Institute of

Standards and Technology, Handbook 135 (1995).

The manual is a guide to understanding life-cycle costing and related methods of economic analysis as they

are applied to federal decisions, especially those subject to DOE 10 CFR 436 rules related to the economic

analysis of energy and water conservation projects and renewable resource projects. It describes the

required procedures and assumptions, defines and explains how to apply and interpret economic

performance measures, gives examples of federal decision problems and their solutions, explains how to use the energy price indices and discount factors that are updated annually in the supplement, and provides

worksheets and other computational aids and instructions for calculating the required measures. The 1995

IV
edition of Handbook 135 is a complete revision of the 1987 edition, with updated information on the FEMP

LCC requirements of 10 CFR 436.

(2) Energy Price Indices and Discount Factors for Life-Cycle Cost Analysis, Annual Supplement to NIST Handbook 135 and NBS Special Publication 709, National Institute of Standards and

Technology, NISTIR 85-3273.

This report, which is updated annually, provides the current DOE discount rate, projected energy price

indices, and corresponding discount factors needed to estimate the present value of future energy and nonenergy project-related costs. The energy price indices were provided by the Energy Information

Administration of the U S. Department of Energy. Request the latest edition when ordering. (This is the

report that you are holding in your hands.)

(3) NIST "Building Life-Cycle Cost" (BLCC) Computer Program, National Institute of Standards and

Technology, NISTIR 4481 (User's Guide dated January 1995). Use version 4.6-98 for the period

from April 1, 1998 to March 31, 1999.

The NIST Building Life-Cycle Cost program provides comprehensive economic analysis capabilities for

the evaluation of proposed capital investments that are expected to reduce the long-term operating costs of buildings and building systems. The BLCC program is designed to run on IBM PC and compatible

microcomputers in a MS-DOS environment. The BLCC program computes the LCC for project alternative,

compares project alternatives in order to determine which has the lowest LCC, performs annual cash flow

analysis, and computes net savings, the savings-to-investment ratio (SIR), and adjusted internal rate of

return (AIRR) for project alternatives over their designated study period. BLCC can be used to perform

economic analysis of capital investment projects undertaken by federal, state, and local government

agencies, as well as by the private sector. BLCC (version 4.8-98) uses the same DOE/EIA energy price

projections included in the Annual Supplement to Handbook 135. In its application to federal energy

conservation and renewable energy projects, BLCC is consistent with NIST Handbook 135 (see #1 above).

In its application to non-energy projects, BLCC is consistent with OMB Circular A-94. In its application

to private-sector and non-federal public-sector projects, BLCC is consistent with ASTM standards for

building economics.

Included on the BLCC disk is the QuickBLCC program, a simplified version of BLCC that can be used to

set up an analysis of multiple project alternatives. Also included is the DISCOUNT program (version 3.7-

98), which can calculate present value, future value, and annual value factors for any discount rate and

study period. DISCOUNT can access the DOE energy price projections included on the BLCC disk to compute the UPV* factors needed for federal LCC analyses of energy projects, consistent with the factors

included in this report. Two additional programs, ERATES 1.0 (for use with complex electricity rate schedules) and EMISS 1.11 (for generating local air pollution emission factors in BLCC analyses) are also

available with BLCC.

The U.S. Department of Energy was directed by legislation and executive order to make available to the

private sector the methods, procedures, and related aids developed for federal use. In response to this directive, the National Institute of Standards and Technology, under sponsorship of the U.S Department

of Energy, published a life-cycle costing book for use by the private sector entitled Comprehensive Guide

for Least-Cost Energy Decisions, NBS SP 709 (January 1987). The private sector guide is supported by

the data provided here, as well as by the BLCC computer program. The BLCC program supersedes the

NBSLCC program which is documented in SP 709. BLCC provides LCC computational support for private sector projects as well as for federal projects.

v
To order any of these publications and software products call:

Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Clearing House

(800) DOE-EREC (800-363-3732)

or write or fax your order to:

U.S. Department of Energy

Federal Energy Management Program, EE-90

1000 Independence Avenue, S.W.

Washington, DC 20585-0121

Fax: 202-586-3000

BLCC and related LCC software may also be purchased from the following vendors:

FlowSoft

5 Oak Forest Court

Saint Charles, MO 63303

(314) 441-1022

Energy Information Services P.O. Box 381

St. Johnsbury, VT 05819-0381

(802) 748-5148

or downloaded via Internet from the FEMP home page at http://www.eren.doe.gov/femp (click on icon

Technical Assistance and go to Analytical Software Tools).

Workshops on the life-cycle costing method and energy analysis are conducted at locations around the

country each year. The workshops include training and software for both BLCC and an energy analysis

computer program called "A Simplified Energy Analysis Method" (ASEAM). A schedule of workshops

can be obtained from DOE/FEMP at (202) 586-8017, Fax (202) 586-3000.

Three video training films in a series entitled "Least-Cost Energy Decisions for Buildings" have been

prepared by NIST. These films include "Introduction to Life-Cycle Costing," "Uncertainty and Risk," and

"Choosing Economic Evaluation Methods." The video films and companion workbooks can be ordered

from Video Transfer, Inc., 5709-B Arundel Avenue, Rockville, MD 20852, Telephone (301) 881-0270,

Fax (301) 770-9131.

Further information on the Federal Energy Management Program can be obtained from the Federal EnergyManagement Program Staffs Office of the Assistant Secretary for Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy', U.S. Department of Energy. Please direct communication to: FEMP, CE 10. 1, U.S. Department of Energy,

1000 Independence Avenue, SW, Washington, DC 20585.

vi
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

The author wishes to thank Mr. Theodore Collins of the Federal Energy- Management Program of the U.S.

Department of Energy' (DOE) for his continued support and direction of this work. Appreciation is extended to Susan Holte, Director, and Paul Kondis, ofthe Energy Demand and Integration Division, DOE

Energy Information Administration, for providing the energy price projections upon which this report is based. I am also grateful to Stephen Petersen, who helped prepare this publication, and to Sandy Kelley

for her assistance in editing and producing this document.
CONTENTS

Page

ABSTRACT iii

PREFACE iv ACKNOWLEDGMENTS vii

LIST OF TABLES ix

ABBREVIATIONS xii

INTRODUCTION 1

PART I: TABLES FOR FEDERAL LIFE-CYCLE COST ANALYSIS 3

A. Single Present Value and Uniform Present Value Factors for Non-Fuel Costs 3

B. Modified Uniform Present Value Factors for Fuel Costs 11

B.l. FEMP Modified Uniform Present Value Factors 14

B.2. OMB Modified Uniform Present Value Factors 20

C. Projected Average Fuel Price Indices and Escalation Rates (Real) 26

PART II: ENERGY PRICE INDICES FOR PRIVATE SECTOR LCC ANALYSIS 43

viii
LIST OF TABLES

Page

A-l . SPV factors for finding the present value of future single costs (non-fuel) 6

A-2. UPV factors for finding the present value of future annually recurring uniform costs (non-fuel)

7

A-3a UPV* factors for finding the present value of annually recurring costs changing at

at a constant escalation rate, DOE discount rate (4.1%) 8

A-3b UPV* factors for finding the present value of annually recurring costs changing at

at a constant escalation rate, OMB short-term discount rate (3.5%) 9

A-3c UPV* factors for finding the present value of annually recurring costs changing at

at a constant escalation rate, OMB long-term discount rate (3.8%) 10

Ba-1 . FEMP UPV’ discount factors adjusted for fuel price escalation, by end-use sector and fuel

type. Discount Rate = 4.1% (DOE). Census Region 1 (Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts,

New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont) .... 15

Ba-2. FEMP UPV* discount factors adjusted for fuel price escalation, by end-use sector and fuel type. Discount Rate = 4.1% (DOE). Census Region 2 (Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas,

Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, South Dakota,

Wisconsin) 16

Ba-3. FEMP UPV* discount factors adjusted for fuel price escalation, by end-use sector and fuel

type. Discount Rate = 4.1% (DOE). Census Region 3 (Alabama, Arkansas, Delaware, District

of Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Mississippi, North Carolina,

Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, West Virginia) 17

Ba-4. FEMP UPV* discount factors adjusted for fuel price escalation, by end-use sector and fuel

type. Discount Rate = 4.1% (DOE). Census Region 4 (Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado,

Hawaii, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Utah, Washington, Wyoming) 1

8

Ba-5. FEMP UPV* discount factors adjusted for fuel price escalation, by end-use sector and fuel type. Discount Rate = 4.1% (DOE). United States average 19

Bb-1. OMB UPV* discount factors adjusted for fuel price escalation, by end-use sector and fuel type. Discount Rate = 3.5% (years 1-10) and 3.8% (years 11-30), (OMB Circular A-94)

Census Region 1 (Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey. New

York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont) 21

IX
LIST OF TABLES (continued)

Page

Bb-2. OMB UPV* discount factors adjusted for fuel price escalation, by end-use sector and fuel type. Discount Rate = 3.5% (years 1-10) and 3.8% (years 11-30), (OMB Circular A-94).

Census Region 2 (Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska,

North Dakota, Ohio, South Dakota, Wisconsin) 22

Bb-3. OMB UPV* discount factors adjusted for fuel price escalation, by end-use sector and fuel type. Discount Rate = 3.5% (years 1-10) and 3.8% (years 11-30), (OMB Circular A-94).

Census Region 3 (Alabama, Arkansas, Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia,

Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Mississippi, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina,

Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, West Virginia) 23

Bb-4. OMB UPV* discount factors adjusted for fuel price escalation, by end-use sector and fuel type. Discount Rate = 3.5% (years 1-10) and 3.8% (years 11-30), (OMB Circular A-94).

Census Region 4 (Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Montana, Nevada,

New Mexico, Oregon, Utah, Washington, Wyoming) 24

Bb-5. OMB UPV* discount factors adjusted for fuel price escalation, by end-use sector and fuel type. Discount Rate = 3.5% (years 1-10) and 3.8% (years 11-30), (OMB Circular A-94).

United States average 25

Ca-1. Projected fuel price indices (excluding general inflation) by end-use sector and fuel type.

Census Region 1 (Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New

York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont) 28

Ca-2. Projected fuel price indices (excluding general inflation) by end-use sector and fuel type.

Census Region 2 (Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska,

North Dakota, Ohio, South Dakota, Wisconsin) 30

Ca-3. Projected fuel price indices (excluding general inflation) by end-use sector and fuel type.

Census Region 3 (Alabama, Arkansas, Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia,

Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Mississippi, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina,

Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, West Virginia) 32

Ca-4. Projected fuel price indices (excluding general inflation) by end-use sector and fuel type.

Census Region 4 (Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Montana, Nevada,

New Mexico, Oregon, Utah, Washington, Wyoming) 34

Ca-5. Projected fuel price indices (excluding general inflation) by end-use sector and fuel type.

United States average 36

Cb-1 Projected average fuel price escalation rates (excluding general price inflation), by end-use

sector and fuel type. Census Region 1 (Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire,

New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont) 38

x
LIST OF TABLES (continued)

Page

Cb-2. Projected average fuel price escalation rates (excluding general price inflation), by end-use

sector and fuel type. Census Region 2 (Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota,

Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, South Dakota, Wisconsin) 39

Cb-3. Projected average fuel price escalation rates (excluding general price inflation), by end-use

sector and fuel type. Census Region 3 (Alabama, Arkansas, Delaware, District of Columbia,

Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Mississippi, North Carolina, Oklahoma,

South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, West Virginia) 40

Cb-4. Projected average fuel price escalation rates (excluding general price inflation), by end-use

sector and fuel type. Census Region 4 (Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho,

Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Utah, Washington, Wyoming) 41

Cb-5. Projected average fuel price escalation rates (excluding general price inflation), by end-use

sector and fuel type. United States average 42

S-l . Projected fuel price indices with assumed general price inflation rates of 3, 4, 5, and 6 percent,

by end-use sector and fuel type. Census Region 1 (Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New

Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont) 45

S-2. Projected fuel price indices with assumed general price inflation rates of 3, 4, 5, and 6 percent,

by end-use sector and fuel type. Census Region 2 (Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan,

Minnesota, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, South Dakota, Wisconsin) 47

S-3. Projected fuel price indices with assumed general price inflation rates of 3, 4, 5, and 6 percent,

by end-use sector and fuel type. Census Region 3 (Alabama, Arkansas, Delaware, District of

Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Mississippi, North Carolina,

Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, West Virginia) 49

S-4. Projected fuel price indices with assumed general price inflation rates of 3, 4, 5, and 6 percent,

by end-use sector and fuel type. Census Region 4 (Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado,

Hawaii, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Utah, Washington, Wyoming) 51

S-5. Projected fuel price indices with assumed general price inflation rates of 3, 4, 5, and 6 percent.

by end-use sector and fuel type. United States average 53

xi
ABBREVIATIONS

A - Annual amount

A<> - Annual amount at base-date prices

AE098 - Annual Energy Outlook 1998 (DOE-EIA publication)

ASTM - American Society for Testing and Materials

BLCC - NIST Building Life Cycle Cost computer program

COAL - Coal

d - discount rate DIST - Distillate Oil

DOE - U.S. Department of Energy

e

- price escalation rate (annual rate of price change)

EIA Energy Information Administration (DOE)

ELEC - Electricity

FEMP - Federal Energy Management Program

FY - Fiscal Year

GASLN - Gasoline

LCC - Life-Cycle Cost

LPG - Liquefied petroleum gas

N - Number of discount periods (in years)

NEMS - National Energy Modeling System

NIST - National Institute of Standards and Technology

NTGAS - Natural Gas

OMB - Office of Management and Budget

RESID - Residual Oil

SPV - Single Present Value (factor)

UPV - Uniform Present Value (factor)

UPV* - Modified Uniform Present Value (factor)

xii
INTRODUCTION

This report provides tables of present-value factors for use in the life-cycle cost analysis of capital

investment projects for federal facilities. It also provides energy price indices based on Department of

Energy (DOE) forecasts from 1998 to 2028. The factors and indices presented in this report are useful for determining the present value offuture project-related costs, especially those related to operational energy

costs. Discount factors included in this report are based on two different federal sources: (1) the DOE

discount rate for projects related to energy conservation, renewable energy resources, and water

conservation; and (2) Office of Management and Budget (OMB) discount rates from Circular A-94 for use with most other capital investment projects in federal facilities.

The DOE discount rate for 1998 is 4.1% real (i.e., net of general price inflation) or 6.6% nominal

(including inflation). The DOE discount rate is based on long-term Treasury bond rates averaged over the

12 months prior to the preparation of this report. The nominal, or market rate, is converted to a real rate using the projected rate of general price inflation (2.4%) from the Economic Report of the President's

Council of Economic Advisors, to correspond with the constant-dollar analysis approach that is used in most federal life-cycle cost (LCC) analyses. Federal agencies and contractors to federal agencies are required by 10 CFR 436 to use the DOE discount rate when conducting LCC analyses related to energy

conservation, renewable energy resources, and water conservation projects for federal facilities. OMB Circular A-94 on guidelines and discount rates for benefit-cost analysis of federal programs was

extensively revised in October 1992. There is no longer a single OMB discount rate as in the past. OMB

has specified two basic types of discount rates: (1) a discount rate for cost-effectiveness, lease-purchase,

and related analyses; and (2) a discount rate for public investment and regulatory analyses. Only discount

rates for the first type of analyses are included in this Annual Supplement, since the primary purpose of this report is to support cost-effectiveness studies related to the design and operation of federal facilities. OMB discount rates for cost-effectiveness and lease-purchase studies are based on interest rates on

Treasury Notes and Bonds with maturities ranging from 3 to 30 years. Currently (as of January 1 998) five

maturities have been specifically identified by OMB, and are shown here with the corresponding real

interest rate to be used as the discount rate for studies subject to OMB Circular A-94:

Maturity: 3 -year 5-vear 7-vear 10-vear 30-vear

Rate: 3.4% 3.5% 3.5% 3.6% 3.8%

OMB suggests that the actual discount rate for an economic analysis be interpolated from these maturities

and rates, based on the study period used in the analysis. Due to limitations on the size of this Annual

Supplement, discount factors for only two of these maturities are presented: factors for short-term analyses

(up to 10 years) based on the 7-year real rate (3.5%), and factors for long-term analyses (longer than 10

years) based on the 30-year real rate (3.8%). As a result, these discount factors are for approximation

purposes only. It is suggested that the NIST Building Life Cycle Cost (BLCC) or DISCOUNT programs

be used to compute the present value factors for the discount rate corresponding to the length of the study

period when approximate values are not satisfactory for the project analysis. (See preface for details on

obtaining these programs.)

The energy price indices and corresponding present value factors published in this report are computed

from energy price forecasts provided to NIST by the Department of Energy's Energy Information

Administration (EIA). The EIA energy price forecast used in this report was the most recent available at the time that this report was prepared. A description of the methodology used by EIA to project enery\

1
prices through 2028 is included in section B ofthis report. DOE has not projected escalation rates for water

prices to be used in the LCC analysis of water conservation projects. Water escalation rates should be

obtained from the local water utility when possible.

Federal agencies and contractors to federal agencies are encouraged to seek energy price projections from

their local utility to use in place ofthe DOE/EIA regional projections, especially when evaluating alternative

fuel types. In such cases the NIST BLCC or DISCOUNT programs can be used to calculate appropriate

"modified uniform present value" (UPV*) factors for use m the LCC analysis of federal energy

conservation or renewable resource projects. Otherwise, 10 CFR 436 requires the use of the DOE energy

price forecasts when conducting LCC analyses of such projects. The UPV* factors for energy costs presented in this report have been precalculated with the DOE forecast data. Thus the use of these UPV*

factors automatically ensures that the DOE forecast data have been included in the analysis.

All of the tables of discount factors contained in this report are based on real discount rates and are therefore intended for use only with economic analyses conducted in constant dollars (in which the

purchasing power of the dollar is held constant). The energy price escalation rates and corresponding

energy pnce indices contained in this report are also expressed in real terms. If nominal discount rates and

current dollar costs (which both include inflation) are used in the LCC analyses of federal projects, use the

BLCC computer program in the "general analysis" mode.

This report uses the term "present value" instead of "present worth" for the discount factors presented. The

meaning of these two terms is considered to be identical for purposes of economic analysis. This change

in terminology was made to be consistent with the terms used in the American Society for Testing and

Materials (ASTM) compilation of standards on building economics (ASTM Standards on Building

Economics, Third Edition, ASTM, Philadelphia, PA, 1994.)

In all of the tables, the “end-of-year” discounting convention is used, that is, all factors and indices are computed to adjust future dollar amounts to present value from the end of the year in which they are expected to occur. The factors and indices in this publication, which include energy price escalation rates

(e.g., UPV* factors and energy price indices), were calculated using April 1, 1998 (the date of this publication) as their base date. However, these factors and indices can be used without adjustment for the

LCC analysis of projects with other base dates until the release of the next revision of this publication (April

1999). Adjustment of these factors and indices for differences in the month-specific base date is not

generally warranted due to uncertainties in estimating future energy prices.

2
PARTI: TABLES FOR FEDERAL LIFE-CYCLE COST

ANALYSIS

A. Single Present Value and Uniform Present Value Factors for Non-Fuel Costs

Table A-l presents the single present value (SPV) factors for finding the present value of future non-fuel,

non-annually recurring costs, such as repair and replacement costs and salvage values. The formula for finding the present value (P) of a future cost occurring in year t (Q) is the following:

P = C,x 1 = Ct x SPVt , (1 +<*)'

where d = discount rate, and

t = number of time periods (years) between the present time and the time the cost is incurred.

Table A-2 presents uniform present value (UPV) factors for finding the present value of future non-fuel

costs recurring annually, such as routine maintenance costs. The formula for finding the present value (P)

of an annually recurring uniform cost (A) is the following:

P A x

(1 + df - 1 d( 1 + d)N

= A x UPVN ,

where d = discount rate, and

N = number of time periods (years) over which A recurs.

Tables A-3(a,b,c) present modified uniform present value (UPV*) factors for finding the present value of

annually recurring non-fuel costs, such as water costs, which are expected to change from year to year at a constant rate of change (or escalation rate) over the study period. The escalation rate can be positive or

negative. The formula for finding the present value (P) of an annually recurring cost at base-date prices

(Aq) changing at escalation rate e is the following:

p =Ao x

t i \ 1 + e d - e

1 -

1 + e'

N

1 + d

= Ao x UPV\

orP = A0 x N = A0 x UPV'N

(d = e).

(d + e)

where Aq

d

eN

= annually recurring cost at base-date prices, = discount rate, = escalation rate, and = number of time periods (years) over which A recurs.

Note: ifthe discount rate is expressed in real terms, i.e., net ofgeneral inflation. then the escalation rate must also be expressed in real terms. If the discount rate is expressed in nominal terms, i.e.. including

general inflation, then the escalation rate must also be expressed in nominal terms.

3
In tables A-l, A-2, and A-3(a,b,c) SPV, UPV, and UPV* factors are provided for both the DOE and the

OMB Circular A-94 real discount rates current as of the date of this publication. The FEMP SPV, UPV,

and UPV* factors were computed using the DOE discount rate. The FEMP factors are for finding the

present value of future costs associated with federal energy and water conservation projects and renewable

energy projects. The OMB SPV, UPV, and UPV* factors were computed using the OMB discount rate. The OMB factors are for finding the present value of future costs associated with most other federal

projects (except those specifically exempted from OMB Circular A-94). The DOE and OMB discount rates used in computing these tables are real rates, exclusive of general price inflation. Thus the resulting

discount factors are intended for use with future costs that are stated in constant dollars.

Examples of How to Use the Factors:

SPV (FEMP): To compute the present value of a replacement cost expected to occur in the 8th year for an energy efficient heating system, go to Table A-l, find the 4.1% SPV factor for year 8 (0.725), and

multiply the factor by the replacement cost as of the base date.

SPV (OMB, Short-term): To compute the present value of a repair cost in the 5th year for a floor covering

(non-energy related), go to Table A-l, find the 3.5% SPV factor for year 5 (0.842), and multiply the factor by the repair cost as of the base date.

SPV (OMB, Long-term): To compute the present value of a repair cost in the 15th year for a floor covering (non-energy related), go to Table A-l, find the 3.8% SPV factor for year 15 (0.572), and multiply

the factor by the repair cost as of the base date.

UPV (FEMP): To compute the present value of an annually recurring maintenance cost for a renewable

energy system over 20 years, go to Table A-2, find the 4. 1% UPV factor for 20 years (13.47), and multiply

the factor by the annual maintenance cost as of the base date.

UPV (OMB, Short-term): To compute the present value of annually recurring costs of office cleaning over

10 years (for a project not primarily related to energy conservation), go to Table A-2, find the 3.5% UPV

factor for 10 years (8.32), and multiply the factor by the annual cleaning cost as of the base date.

UPV (OMB, Long-term): To compute the present value of annually recurring costs of office cleaning over 25 years (for a project not primarily related to energy conservation), got to Table A-2, find the 3.5% UPV

factor for 25 years (15.96), and multiply the factor by the annual cleaning cost as of the base date.

UPV* (all): To compute the present value of annually recurring costs of water usage which are expected

to mcrease at 2% faster than the rate of general inflation over 25 years, find the UPV* factor from table A-3

(a,b, or c as appropriate) that corresponds to 2% escalation and a 25 year study period. From table A-3a

(4.1% DOE discount rate) the corresponding UPV* factor is 19.39. Multiply this factor by the annual water

cost as computed at base year pnces to determine the present value of these water costs over the entire 25

years.

NOTE: UPV factors are generally applied to costs that recur annually in substantially the same amount.

Examples of such costs are routine operating and maintenance costs. UPV* factors are generally applied

to costs that recur annually but change from year to year at a constant escalation rate. Examples of such

costs are water usage costs when they increase from year to year. These costs usually occur eveiy year over

the service period of the building life. If there is a planning/design/ construction period before the service

4
life begins, during which these annual costs are not incurred, the appropriate UPV (or UPV*) factor for the sen ice period is the difference between the UPV (or UPV*) factor for the entire study period and the UPV

(or UPV*) factor for the planning/design/ construction period. For example, if the planning/design/

construction penod is 3 years and the service period is 25 years, for a total study period of 28 years, the

corresponding UPV factor (from Table A-2, DOE 4.1% discount rate) is 16.47 - 2.77 = 13.70.

For further explanation and illustration of how to use these factors, see NIST Handbook 135.

5
Table A-l SPV factors for finding the present value of

future single costs (non-fuel)

Single Present Value (SPV) Factors

Number of

years from

base date

DOE

Discount rate

4.1%

OMB Discount Rates /a

Short term/b Long Term/c

3.5% 3.8%

0.25 0.990 0.991 0.991

0.50 0.980 0.983 0.982

0.75 0.970 0.975 0.972

1 0.961 0.966 0.963

2 0.923 0.934 0.928

3 0.886 0.902 0.894

4 0.852 0.871 0.861

5 0.818 0.842 0.830

6 0.786 0.814 0.799

7 0.755 0.786 0.770

8 0.725 0.759 0.742

9 0.697 0.734 0.715

10 0.669 0.709 0.689

11 0.643 0.663

12 0.617 0.639

13 0.593 0.616

14 0.570 0.593

15 0.547 0.572

16 0.526 0.551

17 0.505 0.530

18 0.485 0.511

19 0.466 0.492

20 0.448 0.474

21 0.430 0.457

22 0.413 0.440

23 0.397 0.424

24 0.381 0.409

25 0.366 0.394

26 0.352 0.379

27 0.338 0.365

28 0.325 0.352

29 0.312 0.339

30 0.300 0.327

3 OMB discount rates as of February 1998.

b Short-term discount rate based on OMB discount rate for 7-year study period.

‘Long-term discount rate based on OMB discount rate for 30-year study period.

6
Table A-2. UPV factors for finding the present value of

annually recurring uniform costs (non-fuel)

Uniform Present Value (UPV) Factors

Number of DOE OMB Discount Rates /a

years from Discount rate Short term/b Long Term/c

base date 4.1% 3.5% 3.8%

1 0.96 0.97 0.96

2 1 . 88 1.90 1.89

3 2.77 2.80 2.79

4 3.62 3.67 3.65

5 4.44 4.52 4.48

6 5.23 5.33 5.28

7 5.98 6.11 6.05

8 6.71 6.87 6.79

9 7.40 7.61 7.50

10 8.07 8.32 8.19

11 8.71 8.86

12 9.33 9.49

13 9.92 10.11

14 10.49 10.70

15 11.04 11.28

16 11.57 11.83

17 12.07 12.36

18 12.56 12 . 87

19 13.02 13.36

20 13.47 13.83

21 13.90 14.29

22 14.31 14.73

23 14.71 15.16

24 15.09 15.56

25 15.46 15.96

26 15.81 16.34

27 16.15 16.70

28 16.47 17.05

29 16.78 17.39

30 17.08 17.72

a OMB discount rates as of February 1998.

b Short-term discount rate based on OMB discount rate for 7-year study period.

“Long-term discount rate based on OMB discount rate for 30-year study period.

7
Table

A-3a.

UPV*

factors

for

finding

the

present

value

of

annually

recurring

costs

changing

ata

constant

escalation

rate

-

DOE

discount

rate.

i—

I

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Cp

ICo

c

OP

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II

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3

O

U

co H

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(CJ Cl4

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053

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co

<15 P

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o

(p-Hc

3)

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ip-p

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dp

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co

05O'C

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P

Q.

(p

O

05 -P

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o\° cm

o\°

T—

i

0\° O

dP

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3

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I

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co

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x—

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r—

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1

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x—

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x—

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r—

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r—

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r—

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1

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1

CD 05 'nT r~ o r—

1

CM CM r—

1

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1

05 r- in CO o 00 CD co O CO n

o rH CM CO m CD r~ 00 05 o x—

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CM CM CO m CD p- CO 05 o rH rH CM co H1 n

rH x—

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p- o rH o CD o CM rH 05 00 05 05 p~ 00 r—

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co CO rH CO 00 rH CM CO

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CO CO r- CM co CO X

1 o x—1 CO CM 05 p- r- CD CM r- o r—1 r—1 05 CD r—1 n p~ 00 00 05 CO r~ CD CM 05 p- o CO 05 o m o m O 05 CO r- O 00 x—1 r- o

o r—

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1

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1

r—

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rH rH rH rH CM

rH X—

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r—

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rH r—

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rH rH r—

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rH rH r—

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rH

CM CD 00 m CD co m CO 00 05 r- CM rH CD 05 rH rH 05 CO rH CD 05 rH CM CO CM rH

05 r~- LO CM 05 m rH CD X 1 m 05 co r~ o CO CD 00 o CO m CD 00 o rH CM n CD P- 00 O r—

1

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rH rH r—1 r—1 rH rH rH r—1

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8
Table

A-3b.

UPV*

factors

for

finding

the

present

value

of

annually

recurring

amounts

changing

ata

constant

escalation

rateOMB

short-term

discount

rate. 111 111 1 *—1 1 1 O\o 1 o 1 1 40 1 11 11 11 \—1 11 11 1 o 1 1 oP 1 o 1 1 1 1 i 1 C—1 1—1 1 i 1 CP 1 i D 1 i 4-1 1 i 1 o 1 1 1 O\0 1 o C 1 1 00 1 0 1 I 1 \—1 c 1 1 1 

1 1

<0 CO 11 11 1 ON

O'PM 1 1 o\° 1 01

m 0 1 CP 1 CM 1 • 4-1 1 O' 1 1 o

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O 1 c 1 1 fO 1 nO 1

II Uj 1 si 1 1 o 1 1 00

<P 1 1 o\° 1 CO

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Qj 1 -H 1 1 D 1 1 4-1 1 a 1 c 1 1 1 r~ 3 CP 1 4-1 1 o\° 1 O' o D 1 0 1 O 1 o 1 1 l 1 1 o

to (0 1 a> 1 1 > 1 4J 1 TO 1 ro 1 4-1 1 M 1 1 4D e C 1 1 O'P 1 CTi u CP 1 • 1 1 tH 1 CD CO 1 fG 1 1 1 o

4-1 CD 1 D 1 1 1 M 1 C 1 4-1 CU 1 c 1 M 1 < 1 1 140 0 e 1 1 O'P 1 a-i si M 1 1 CM 1 CO O 1 1 1 1 o

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OtHCMootj’uotocor^co

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U.

Oo C c/3 3c

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a pi

C/3 £

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pp

*-> o o

4=

C/0
Table

A-3c.

UPV*

factors

for

finding

the

present

value

of

annually

recurring

amounts

changing

ata

constant

escalation

rate

-

OMB

long-term

discount

rate.

n>CO

00

<D

4-> tDM

4->C

D

O

0

CO -H

£

U

(D -P

1CoC

O

'—

1

CQ2O

i

i

i

I

1

1 i x—

1

00 r~ CM CO in 00 00 40 <31 o CO O' 00 X—

1

40 04 <31 CD CO O 00 CO CM CM 00

1 I 5% 1 o O o X

1 X—1 04 00 n 40 r- <31 rH CM 40 CO X 1 00 40 00 rH CO X—

1

C0 CM 40 O

i 1 i T I CM 00 in 40 O' 00 <31 o x—

1

CM n 4

O

O' 00 o X 1 CM 00 n 40 O' <31 o X 1 00 40

i

i

1

1

i rH x—

I

x—

1

x—

1

x—

1

x—

1

x—

1

X—

1

CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CM 00 00 00 00 00

i

i

1

1 i O X 1 x—

1

CM 00 in O' <31 x—

1

00 n CD o 00 40 o 00 O' X—

1

n <31 <31 <31 O n X 1

i 1 o\° i o o o O o o o o o rH x—

1

x—

1

x—

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CM CM CM 00 00 00 n n 40 40 O' 00 00 <31

i 1 i • —

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i 1 i x—

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CM 00 in 40 o- 00 <31 o rH 04 oo n 40 O' 00 <31 o x-H CM 00 n 40 o~ 00 <31 O 1—1 CD

i

i

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1

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1 CM 00 m 40 O' CD <31 o X—1 CM 00 n 40 O' <33 <31 o O xH CM 00 n n 40 c i

i

1

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1 X1 x—

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1

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CO

i

i

1

1 i CO to O 00 m m 00 o n <31 CM 00 00 rH 00 00 00 X—

1

CM 00 CM O O' CO O' X—

1

00 n

i 1 o\° i <31 <31 <31 CO O' 40 m CM O <31 O' n 00 o CO n 00 o O' X—

1

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1

CM 00 m 40 O' 00 <31 <31 o x—

1

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1

CM oo o i c 1 i X

1 X1 rH X1 X1 X-1 x—

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x-H x-H X 1 X 1 x—

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X I CM CM CM CM CM CM

<U i 00 1 tij i -C 1

i o 1 i r~ CM x—

1

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CM 04 00 n n 40 40 O' O' 00 00 <31 <31 o

cu i •H 1 i x—

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1 X—

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cu i 4-1 1 o\o i <31 00 O' 40 -vT CM o O' n X

1 CD x—

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d CM 00 00 00 00 <33 CM O' xH n C31 00 O' o 00 O' 3 i o 1 o i

'—

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00 i CD 1 i X

1 rH x—

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0) i

1 1 1 x—1 i CO i r0 1 i i O X—1 CM CO m n 40 O' O' 00 00 <31 o o O X—

l

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CD i 3 1 i x—

1

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1 rH X—

1

X 1 x-H x—1 x—1 X—1 X 1 xH X 1 X—1 xH x—1 x—1 x—1 U i C 1 Oi i C 1

i C 1 i 00 r- 04 00 o oo 00 <31 CM CM O 40 40 <31 oo n n 00 <31 n CO X 1 CM CM x—1 <31 £ i 1 o\° i <31 CD 4D ’’sT CM <31 40 CM CO 00 <31 <31 00 O' x—

1

n 00 CM n 03 xH 00 40 00 X—1 00 n O' 00

44 i 1 CM i O i 1 1 i O rH CM 00 n 40 40 O' O' 00 00 <31 <31 o o o X—1 x—1 x—1 CM CM CM CM 00 00 00 00 00

4-1 *H

i

i

1

1

i X—1 x—

1

x-H X—1 rH x-H rH x—1 X—1 X I X—1 X 1 x—1 X—1 X—

1

c

tD

i

i

1

1 i 00 x—

1

CM <31 o O' <31 O' rH CM <31 "nT n O 40 n 00 <31 oo n 40 40 X—1 00 00 O' o

i 1 o\° i CTi 00 40 00 X—1 O' 00 <31 n O <31 00 O' X—

1

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1

CM CM CM -H

M-l

i

i

1

1

i x—1 X—1 x-H x-H X—

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x—1 X—

1

X—1 X 1 X—1 x—

1

X—

1

x—1

-o

i

i

1

1 i CM 00 o- o 00 i—

l

00 04 x—

1

O' o C31 n 00 <31 00 n <31 CM 00 CM o O' CM 40 <31 xH 00 00 OO o i 1 o\° i C31 r-~ n 00 C31 40 X—1 O' CM 40 X—l 00 X 1 o- o CM n O' <31 X 1 CM in 40 00 <31 o X 1 s i

i

1

1 1

i

i O rH CM 00 00 n n 40 40 O' O' 00 00 00 <31 <31 <31 C31 <31 o O o o O o O xH X 1

i

i

1

1

i X 1 X—

1

xH xH X 1 X 1 X 1 xH X 1

i

i

1

1 i CM lD 04 04 40 m <31 00 00 CM O' 00 O' CO o O C31 40 CM 40 <31 xH CM CM X—

1

<31 O'

i 1 -5%i <31 r- m CM 00 <31 <31 00 n- o 00 40 <31 X 1 40 d <31 x-H CM 00 n 40 O' 00 00 CTI o

i 1 i O rH CM 00 oo n n 40 40 O' d O' O' 00 00 00 CO CO <31 <31 <31 <31 <31 <31 CTI <31 <31 o

i 1 i rH

E i <H o <3) i o M 4-> i 4-1 <0 i M i H(Mn^LD^)r-OD(TiO xH CN 00 n 'mO r- 00 (T> o X—

1

CNJ 00 n 40 0~ 00 <31 O

a) <0 i X—

1

x—1 xH X 1 rH x—1 xH X 1 X 1 X—

1

CM CNJ CNJ CM CNJ CM CM CM CNJ CM OO o U <D i g (0 <0 i D <D i >x£i i

10

a

OMB

discount

rate

as

of

February

1

998.

Long-term

discount

rate

based

on

OMB

discount

rate

for

30-year

study

period.
B. Modified Uniform Present Value Factors for Fuel Costs

This section presents FEMP and OMB modified uniform present value (UPV*) discount factors for

calculating the present value of energy usage for federal projects. Factors are provided for the four

major Census regions and for the overall United States. The factors are modified in the sense that they

incorporate energy price escalation rates based on future energy prices projected by DOE for the

years 1997-2026. There are two sets of UPV* tables: the "Ba" tables present FEMP UPV* factors

based on the DOE discount rate (4. 1% real), and the "Bb" tables present OMB UPV* factors based on two OMB discount rates (3.5% real for short-term study periods of 1 to 10 years, 3.8% real for

long-term study periods of 1 1 to 30 years). The underlying energy price indices for the years 1998

to 2028 on which these UPV* calculations are based are shown in tables Ca-1 through Ca-5. The

corresponding average energy price escalation rates for selected time intervals between 1998 and

2028 are shown in tables Cb-1 through Cb-5.

Energy Price Projections

The FEMP and OMB UPV* factors incorporate energy price escalation rates computed from future

energy prices projected by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the U.S. Department of

Energy. Energy prices through 2015 were generated by EIA using the National Energy Modeling

System (NEMS) and published in the Annual Energy Outlook 19981 (AE098). At the request of

FEMP, EIA extrapolated energy prices after the year 2015 from the AE097 data.

NEMS is an energy market model designed to project the impacts of alternative energy policies or assumptions on U.S. energy markets. NEMS produces projections of the U.S. energy future, given

current laws and policies and other key assumptions, including macroeconomic indicators from Data

Resources, Inc., the production policy ofthe Organization ofPetroleum Exporting Countries, the size

of the economically recoverable resource base for fossil fuels, and the rate of development and

penetration of new technologies. NEMS balances energy supply and demands with modules

representing primary fuel supply, end-use demand for four sectors, and conversion of energy by

refineries and electricity generators. Macroeconomic and international oil modules reflect the impacts

of energy prices, production, and consumption on world oil markets and the economy.

In order to produce price projections to 2028, EIA extrapolated the prices from the AE098 with

specific assumptions about long-term trends. To provide long-term price expectations to the post2015 projections, world oil price expectations through 2050 were calculated using assumptions of

world oil supply and demand. These expectations were used as the basis for the 2028 projections of

petroleum product prices, using the implied 2015 refinery markups to calculate the regional, end-use

prices.

The EIA energy price projections presented in this report, like those of other forecasters, are dependent on the data, methodologies, and specific assumptions used in their development Many of

the assumptions concerning the future cannot be known with any degree of certainty. Thus, the

projections are not statements of what will happen, but what might happen given the particular

assumptions and methodologies used. Although EIA has endeavored to make these forecasts as

objective, reliable, and useful as possible, these projections should serve as an adjunct to, not a

1 Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 1998, DOE/EIA-0383(98), January 1 998

11
substitute for, the analytical process. The AE098 was prepared by EIA as required under statute by

federal legislation. The price projections to 2028 were prepared in accordance with a Service Request

from the Federal Energy Management Program.

UPV* Calculation Method

The formula for finding the present value (P) of future energy costs or savings is the following:

N

P = =A0 x UPVN , t =

1 (1 +a)

where A^

tN

I(1998+t)

d

annual cost of energy as of the base date (April 1, 1998);

index used to designate the year of energy usage;

number of periods, e.g., years, over which energy costs or savings accrue; projected average fuel price index2 given in Tables Ca-1 through Ca-5

for the year 1998+t (where I 199g = 1.00); and

the real discount rate.

This formula is based on end-of-year energy prices and end-of-year discounting. Note that annual

energy costs as ofthe base date ofthe LCC analysis (Ao, to be supplied by the analyst) should reflect the current energy price schedule as ofthat date, which may not be the same as the energy price itself on that date.

3 That is, the annual energy cost should reflect summer-winter rate differences, time-of- use rates, block rates considerations, and demand charges (as appropriate) anticipated to be in effect

that year. If energy and demand costs are calculated separately (as is sometimes done for electricity),

the UPV* factor should be applied to both costs.

The data in the tables that follow are reported for the four Census regions and the U.S. average.

Figure B-l presents a map showing the states corresponding to the four Census regions. The Census

regions do not include American Samoa, Canal Zone, Guam, Puerto Rico, Trust Territory of the

Pacific Islands, or the Virgin Islands. Analysts of federal projects in these areas should use data which

are "reasonable under the circumstances," and may refer to the tables with U.S. average data for

guidance.

2 For greater precision, the UPV* factors reported in the Ba and Bb tables were computed using the unrounded form

of the indices given in Tables Ca-1 through Ca-5.

3 While the UPV* factors provided in this publication were computed usmg energy price indices that correspond to energy prices as of April 1 in the current and future years, the analyst is encouraged to use for determining A<, the energy

prices prevailing as of the base date of the LCC analysis for the project evaluated.

12
13
B.l. FEMP Modified Uniform Present Value Factors

The FEMP Modified Uniform Present Value (FEMP UPV*) factors presented in the "Ba" tables,

based on the current DOE discount rate (4. 1%), are for calculating the present value of energy costs or savings accruing over 1 to 25 years and are to be used in life-cycle cost analyses of federal energy

conservation and renewable energy projects. Factors are reported in the "Ba" tables for 30 years to accommodate a planning/design/construction period ofup to 5 years. (See "Examples of How to Use

FEMP UPV* Factors" below for instructions on use with planning/design/construction periods.)

These factors apply only to annual energy usage or energy savings that are assumed to be the same

each year over the service period. The NIST BLCC computer program can compute the present value

of energy usage and savings which are not the same in each year.

Examples of How to Use the FEMP UPV* Factors:

FEMP UPV*, no planning/design/construction period: To compute the present value of heating with

natural gas over 25 years in a federal office building in New Mexico, go to Table Ba-4, find the

FEMP UPV* factor for commercial natural gas for 25 years (14.81), and multiply this factor by the

annual heating cost at base-date natural gas prices.

FEMP UPV*, with planning/design/construction period: To compute a present value factor for a

service period following a planning/design/construction period (1) find the FEMP UPV* factor for

the combined length ofthe planning/design/construction period and the service period (not to exceed

30 years), and (2) subtract from (1) the FEMP UPV* factor for the planning/design/construction

period alone. The difference is the FEMP UPV* factor for the years over which energy costs or savings actually accrue. For example, suppose a new federal office building in New York is being

evaluated with several energy conserving design options. It is expected to have a planning/design/

construction period of 5 years, after which it will be occupied for at least 25 years. To compute the

present value of natural gas costs over 25 years of occupancy, go to Table Ba-1 and find the FEMP

UPV* factors for commercial natural gas for 5 years (4.28) and for 30 years (15.98). The difference

(1 1 .70) is the FEMP UPV* factor for natural gas costs over 25 years, beginning 5 years after the base

date. Multiply 1 1.70 by the annual natural gas cost at base-date prices (not occupancy-date prices) to calculate the present value of natural gas costs over the entire 25-year occupancy period.

14
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15

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16

Note:

UPV*

factors

are

reported

for

years

26-30

to

accommodate

a

planning/construction

period

of

up

to 5

years.

(See

p. 14

for

instructions

on

use;

page

xii

for

abbreviations.)
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factors

are

reported

for

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26-30

to

accommodate a

planning/construction

period

of

up

to 5

years.

(Sec

p. 14

for

instructions

on

use;

page

xii

for

abbreviations.)
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18

Note:

UPV*

factors

are

reported

for

years

26-30

to

accommodate

a

planning/construction

period

of

up

to 5

years.

(See

p.

14

for

instructions

on

use;

page

xii

for

abbreviations.)
Table

Ba-5.

FEMP

UPV*

Discount

Factors

adjusted

for

fuel

price

escalation,

by

end-use

sector

and

fuel

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19

Note

UPV*

factors

are

reported

for

years

26-30

to

accommodate a

planning/construction

period

of

up

to 5

years.

(See p14

for

instructions

on

use;

page

xii

for

abbreviations.)
B.2. OMB Modified Uniform Present Value Factors

The OMB Modified Uniform Present Value (OMB UPV*) factors presented in the "Bb" tables, based on the current OMB discount rates (3.5% short term and 3.8% long term), are for calculating the

present value of energy costs accruing over 1 to 30 years when conducting a life-cycle cost analysis

of a federal project which is not explicitly related to energy or water conservation or renewable

resources. Factors are reported in the "Bb" tables for 30 years. These factors apply only to annual

energy usage that is assumed to be the same each year over the service period. The NIST BLCC

computer program can compute the present value of energy usage and savings that are not the same

in each year.

Examples of How to Use the OMB UPV* Factors:

OMB UPV* (OMB discount rate): To compute the present value over 30 years of electricity costs

associated with the occupancy of a federal office building in Ohio (where energy conservation is not

a specific consideration in the LCC analysis), go to Table Bb-2, find the OMB UPV* factor for

commercial electricity for 30 years (15.98), and multiply this factor by the annual electricity cost in base-date dollars.

NOTE: Because the discount rate used to calculate the Bb tables (OMB discount rate) is different

for years 1-10 (3.5%) than for years 11-30 (3.8%), these factors cannot be used with a

planning/design/construction period as shown above for the Ba tables (DOE discount rate). Use the

BLCC or DISCOUNT computer program for this purpose. For further explanation of the use of

UPV* factors, see NIST Handbook 135.

20
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p.

20

for

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on

use;

page

xii

for

abbreviations.)
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by

end-use

sector

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type.

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20

for

instructions

on

use;

page

xii

for

abbreviations.)
C. Projected Average Fuel Price Indices and Escalation Rates (Real)

Tables Ca-1 through Ca-5 present projected fuel price indices for the four Census regions and for the

United States. These indices, when multiplied by annual energy costs computed at base-date prices (i.e., as of April 1, 1998), provide estimates of future-year costs (also as of April 1) in constant base-date

dollars. Constant-dollar cost estimates are needed when discounting is performed with a real discount rate

(i.e., a rate that does not include general price inflation).

These indices were used in the calculation of the UPV* factors for energy prices in the Ba and Bb tables

in this publication. While they are based on April 1 energy prices to maintain consistency in the

computation of these UPV* factors, the level of precision implied here is not required for most LCC

analyses. That is, the analyst need not calibrate base-year energy prices precisely to April 1, 1998 levels

to use these indices (or the corresponding UPV* factors); instead, the analyst should use current price levels as of the base-date of the LCC analysis, regardless of the time of the year that the study is undertaken.

Example of How to Use the Indices:

To estimate the price of industrial coal in 2006 in Connecticut (in constant 1998 dollars), go to Table Ca-1,

find the year 2006 index for industrial coal (.93), and multiply by the price for industrial coal in Connecticut

in 1998.

For further explanation of how to use these tables, see NIST Handbook 135.

Tables Cb-1 through Cb-5 present the projected average fuel price escalation rates (percentage change

compounded annually) for selected periods from 1998 to 2028 for the four Census regions and for the

overall United States. Note that these are real rates exclusive of general price inflation. Their use results

in prices expressed in constant dollars.

The average fuel escalation rates consolidate the information provided by the indices in the Ca tables so

that trends in projected price changes can be seen at a glance. They are provided primarily to accommodate

computer programs (such as BLCC) which require pnce escalation rates as inputs.

Unless there is a compelling reason to use escalation rates, it is recommended that you use the indices in the Ca tables when you need estimates of future-year energy prices, since the indices include year-to-year

information rather than averages over a number of years.

Example of How to Use the Escalation Rates:

To estimate the unit price of residential natural gas at the end of 2008 (pog ) in Wyoming using the DOE

energy price escalation rates, go to Table Cb-4 and find the 1998-2003 and the 2003-2008 escalation rates

for residential natural gas (-1.0% for 5 years and -0.4% for 5 years, respectively). Enter these values and

the unit price of residential natural gas in Wyoming in 1998 (p9g) into the following formula. Then solve

for the 2008 energy pnce (stated in 1998 dollars):

26
Po» = P9S x 0 + eS' x 0 +

= p9% x (1 - 0.01)5 x (1 - 0.004)5

= p9S x 0.9321

where py = Price at end of year y;

e, = Annual compound escalation rate for period i from the Cb tables (in decimal form); and

k, = Number ofyears over which escalation rate e; occurs.

Note that the compounded escalation rate factor (0.9321) corresponds to the fuel price index in region 4,

residential natural gas, for the year 2008 in table Ca-4 (0.93).

The data in the tables which follow are reported for the four Census regions and the U.S. average. Figure

B-l presents a map showing the states corresponding to the four Census regions. The Census regions do

not include American Samoa, Canal Zone, Guam, Puerto Rico, Trust Territory of the Pacific Islands, or

the Virgin Islands. Analysts offederal projects in these areas should use data which are "reasonable under

the circumstances," and may refer to the tables with U.S. average data for guidance.

27
Table

Ca-1.

Projected

fuel

price

indices

(excluding

general

inflation),

by

end-use

sector

and

fuel

type.

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Ca-1,

continued.

Projected

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price

indices

(excluding

general

inflation),

by

end-use

sector

and

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in i m CO rH (?) CO o (?) VO (?) (?) 00 CM rH (?) CM 1 00 CM rH (?) 00 CO 00 o CO CM co CD O 1 • • • • CM 11 o rH rH o o rH rH T 1 o o rH rH T—1 O l in CM rH 00 00 (?) 00 o (?) r* rH r* (?

CM 1 00 CM

T 1 (?) CO CM CO o (?) r~ CM CM CD o 1 • • CM 11 o rH 1 1 o o rH rH rH o o rH T—1

rH

O

00 1 in CM

T

—1CD CO 00 r- CM o (?) o O

CM 1 00 CM t—1

(?) 00 CM 00O (?) r- CM CM (?

O 1 • • • • CM 11 o rH rH o o rH rH i—1 o o rH rH rH o

CM 1 m CM \—1 m CO CO CD

T 1 rH (?) CD Cl rH o

CM 1 00 CM \—1

(?) CO CM CO o (?) r- CM 00 CM (?) o | • • • • CM 11 o l—1

rH o o rH rH rH o o rH rH rH o

rH 1 m rH o CO CO

m 01 rH (?) CD CD rH CM 1 00 CM T 1 (?) CO CM 00 Cl (?) r- CM 00 rH (?) O 1 • • • CM 11 o rH rH o o rH rH o O o rH rH rH o O 1 m rH o CM 00 CM 01 m r- CM CM 1 00 CM rH ac CO CM 00 (?) (?) o CM 00 rH (?) O 1 • • • • CM 11 o rH rH o o rH rH o O o rH rH rH o

G) 1 mO o rH 00 co CM CD CM o m rH CM

rH | oo CM rH 01 CO CM 00 Cc Cl 00 CM CO rH (?) O 1 • • • • CM 11 o rH rH o o rH rH o o o rH rH rH o

CO 1 in o o rH

m rH in CM o o CM

rH | CO CM rH (?) 00 CM 00 Cl (?) 00 CM co rH (? O 1 • • • • CM 1i o rH rH o o rH rH o o o rH rH t—1 O

r- i m G) G) o 00 00 in 00 o CM rH (?) CM

rH | CO rH

O (?) CO CM CM (?) (?) CO CM co o o O 1 • • • • CM 11 o rH rH o o rH rH o o o rH rH rH o

CD 1 CO 00 o o m CM

m <vT 00 rH rH 00 CO CM

rH | CO rH

T—1(?) 00 CM CM (?) (?) 00 CM CM o (?)

O | • • CM 11 o rH rH o o rH rH o o o rH rH rH o

in i CD 00 G) o in CM

m 00 CM rH r- CM

rH | CO rH o (?) CO CM CM (?) (?) CO CM CM o G) O I • • CM 11 o rH rH o o rH rH o o o rH rH rH O i r- 00 0^ o CD CM CD 00 00 rH 00 VO 00

rH | 00 rH

O (?) 00 CM CM o (?) CO CM CM o (?)

O 1 • • • CM 11 o rH rH o o t 1 rH o o o rH rH rH o i—! ii <D i rH rH 3 i *H •H •H h i o O rH O rH V i >, CQ >. •H w >> •H (Q i i—i p © CO p <D O CD p © o C0 C i (0 H p 0 rH -H P 0 rH -H P 0

(C i -H

O CD fO

u CD i—i U CO I—( i P -H rH •—1 *H rH CD <H •H •rH rH CO i—i i C M rH CO a P rH 3 CD U P rH 3 C0 0 i a) P •H P u P -H 73 P 4J P •H 73 p p i 73 O -P 0 3 Q) O •H 3 rH CO O 4J •H 3 rH o i -H CD CO P p d) CO n P 3 d> CO P (0

<v i m i—l

-H Dj (0 i—1

•r| (U (0

O

V i—1

•H

© <0 o cn i <u W D PI 2 o H Q a; 2 O c w Q cc 2 u i os u M

33

Transportation

Motor

Gasoline

1.11

1.11

1.11

1.11

1.11

1.11

1.11

1.11

1.12

1.12

1.12

1.12

1.13

1.13

1.13
Table

Ca-4.

Projected

fuel

price

indices

(excluding

general

inflation),

by

end-use

sector

and

fuel

type. 1 00 1 x

—1

CO 00

O 00 CM in CM rH CD CM 00 1 rH 1 CD X—1

rH CD 00 rH

x

—1 CD CD 00 rH rH

x

—1 CD 1 O 1 • • • 11 CM 11 O rH rH O o rH rH o o O x—1 x—1 x—1

CD 1 CM 1 CM 00 00 rH rH in 00 o CO x—1 1 rH | CD rH rH CD CO x—1

rH CD CD CO

X

—1 X 1 rH CD 1 O 1 • • OX) 1 CM 1 o x—1 x—1 O o x—1 x—I o o o o s 1 i i 1 rH | CO CM CD x—1 m rH m m m o CO CM © 1 rH | CD X 1 O CD CO x—1 c—i

CD CD 00

x

—1 X—1 X—1

CD 1 O 1 • • • £ 11 CM 11 o rH X—1

CD o rH rH

O o o rH rHX

—1

CD c 1 O I CM CD CM CO O VO m VO CD 00 rH o-wDD oo 11 rH | O | CD \—1 O CD 00 x—1 T 1 CD CD CO O rH rH CD

_n t—1 11 CM 11 CD rH rH CD o rH rH

O o o rH rH rH

O

C/5

II 1 CD I CM CD CM VO

O CM VOm CD CD

mO cs 1 O 1 CD x—1 O CD CD x—1 x—1

CD CD CO

O rH rH CD £

CO 1 O I • • • (T> 1 CM 1 o rH rH O o X

—1 X 1 CD CD o x

—1 x—1

rH CD

rv £R

CTi T—1 11 1

CD I CM (D 00 VO O') CM cd tn CD CD CO 00

X

X 1 11 O 1I CD rH

O CD 00 o rH CD cr> CD

O rHO CD

sf© 1 CM 1 o rH rH CD o X

—1 x—1 CD o O rH rH <D 1 1 1 1 OD •HP 1 r- i CM CO 00 r- CD CM CD m P" CO in CD m

a, 1 O 1 CD rH

O CD CO

O

x

—1 CD CD 00 o rH o CD

X 5 < 1 o 1 • • '

1 CM 1 O x—1

rH o o rH rH

O o o rH rH

x

—1 o ©o O

CJ C/l 1 I

0) 1 VO 1 <nT o r- 00 00 r- 00 in VO CD CD o in

X o 1 O 1 CD

x

—1 o CD CO o o CD CD 00 o rH o CD

© 03 -H 1 O 1 • . •u 1 CM 1 O X—1 X

—1

CD o rHx

—1 o O

O

x

—1

rHx

—1 o u £ cM 1 1 1 uo i ’nT o VO 00 CD r- CO VO VO O VO rH CM VO

cz z a) 1 O 1 CD

X

—1 o CD 00 o o CD cr> CD o x

—1 O CD c o 1 o 1 • -H 1 CM 1 O rH rH O o rH rH o o O x—1 x—1 X—1

CD

a e P

Qj 1 i > 1 i O uo rH co 00 CD CM in o CM VO

o> r—1 1 o 1 CD rH o cr> CD o O CD CD CD o rH

O CD

u z 0) 1 o 1 • • • 3 1 CM 1 o rH X—1 o o rH rH

O CD CD rH rH rH CD «co

cse h

rH 11 i CO 1 CD

mm CM in VO [> r- 00 CO CM

N -w 1 O 1 CD

O o CD CD o o CD CD o O

O CD s >

1 1 O 1 • < ©£

*HP

a. 11 CM 11 o rH rH o o rH rH

O o O rH

x—1 X

—1 CD < 1 CM 1 CO VO in 00 CM o r* 00 OO CM OO CM P' o 1 o | CD o o CD CT\ o o CD CD CD O o O CD £ n 1 o | . . • cc <1> 1 CM 1 O r—1 rH o o rH rH o CD CD rH X 1 X 1 CD < o 4J 1 1 o

<L) 1 rH | P0 VO 00 VO CM CD 00 00

x

—1 CM CM •n 1 O 1 CD o o CO CT> O CD CD cr> CD o O O CD o 1 O 1 • . • P

cu 11 CM 11 o X

—1 rH o o rH CD o o CD rH

X—1rH CD co 1 O 1 m m CM r- VO O m CD O'! VO o 00 CM 00 “a& 11 O 1 O 1 CD o o CD cr> O CD CD CD CD o CD O CD ai 1 CM 1 o rH rH o o rH o O CD CD rH CD rH CD

c/5 s 1 <7> I 00 CM rH CO <D

O

m CD CD o CD rH CD

C« 1 CD 1 (D

OO CD CDO CD CD CD o CD CD o CD

C 1 CTi | U 11 rH |1 O rH rH CD

Ox—1 o O CD rH CD CD rH

O •—i 11 a) 1 i—1

rH rH a) 3 1 -H •H •H c C

[« 1 o o rH o rH o -H 1 >i CO >, -H CO >, •H C0 •rH •H V 1 rH 4-> <u m -p <13 o 03 4P <u o <T5 •P o C 1 H -p 0 •—1

-H 4J 0 1—1

-H .p 0 (0 10

(0 1 •H

Omu 03 rH 03u CTJ 1—1

-p <XJ 1 -P -H 1—1

rH -H •H rH <T3 rH •H •H rH <0 •—i p 0 M 1 C H fO O p rH p <0 U P rH P 03 0 0 1 (D -P rH U P 4-1 H T5 4J +J *H T5 U a P

-P 1 V

O -P P <Va 4-) •H 13 rH COU P *H P •H

m

O

u 1 H a) CO 0 4J <u

w CO 4-3 03 P <uW

W 4-> 03

C 4-> <D 1 CO 1—1

-H 0. 03 £ i-i -H (L) 03 o V rp -H a; 03

Om o

CO 1 <Dw

Q PI £ o wQ CC £ o P WQ cc £ U

p 2 1 o W EH

34

.00

1.01

1.02

1.02

1.04

1.04

1.04

1.05

1.06

1.08

1.07

1.07

1.07

1.07

1.07
Table

Ca-4,

continued.

Projected

fuel

price

indices

(excluding

general

inflation),

by

end-use

sector

and

fuel

type.

oxsoco

OX) c

<5 - « © i ex

es

© = 5 © -r s © « - © © © ^

.'I S t

:r CO

cc > Hzi s

.§ -2 < s » © 5 «

•< ^3 S©

*5d ©5

V5 U i 00 1 (?) (?) o o p* P- CO 1 CM 1 CD rH rH (?) 00 CM CM O CD i O I • • • • ii CM 11 o rH rH o o rH rH rH o i r- i (?) <3« CD o o CD m (?) i CM 1 CO rH rH (? CO CM CM o CD i O 1 • • • ii CM 11 o rH rH o o rH rH rH o i (D | r- CD co CO o (?) m (?) i CM 1 CO rH rH (?) CD rH CM o CO i O 1 • • • • 11 CM 11 o rH rH o o rH rH rH o i lO | r* CO CO uo o CD CM o o 1 CM 1 CO rH rH (?) CO rH CM o (?) o i O I • • • i CM 1 o rH rH o o rH rH rH o

rH1 1 1

II i i r- r- 00 00 o CO CO o o i CM 1 CD rH rH (?) CO rH CM o (?) CD 1 O 1 • • CT> i CM 1 O rH rH o o rH rH rH o

(?) 1 i rH i CO 1 CO CM o r- CM (?) rH 1 CM 1 CO rH rH (?) CO rH CM (?) (?) H i O 1 • • • 1 CM 1 o rH rH o o rH rH o O •—1 1 i h i CM 1 r- co 00 rH o rH r~" rH a 1 CM 1 00 rH rH (?) CO rH CM (?) (?) < i O 1 • — i CM 1 o rH rH o o rH rH o o

10a) i rH 1 r* KD CM CTi o CD o in CM u i CM 1 CD rH rH CD 00 rH CM <y> CTi -H i O 1 • • • • V i CM 1 O rH rH O o rH rH o o c i 1 H 1 O I r* CO co CO o CD rH CO CM

as 1 CM 1 CD rH rH CO 00 rH CM (?) (?) u i O 1 • • • • -H i CM 1 O rH rH o o rH rH o O h i i Or i (?) | r- 00 r- (?) r- CM CO CM

•H 1 rH | CD rH rH CD r- rH CM (?) (?) 0 i O 1 • ‘ • • • 3 i CM 1 o rH rH o o rH rH o o

Ew i 1 rH i CD | 00 in CM r- o m CO CM CM i T—1 | CD rH rH CD 00 rH rH (?) (?) i—1 i O 1 • • • •H i CM 1 o rH rH O o rH rH o O h i i a< i r- i CO CM p* o CO m CO CO i *—i i CO rH rH CD CO rH rH (?) (?) V i O i • • • • OS i CM 1 o rH rH O o rH rH o o

4-> i 1 o0 1 VD I (?) CO rH CO P* CM *3*

-r—> i tH l CO ?—I

rH CD CO rH rH (?) (?) o i O 1 • • M i CM 1 o rH rH o o rH rH o o

a. i 1 i m i o lD CO CO CM CO <3* 1 rH | (?) rH rH CO CO rH rH (?) (?) i O 1 11 CM 11 o rH rH o o rH rH o o i i rH *3* 00 (?) co CO p* CO i rH | (?) rH rH CO 00 rH rH (?) co i O 1 • • • • ii CM 11 o rH rH o o rH rH o o

CD (?) <3* CD ID r- rH co CO CO o rH rH rH o

co CO CO VD p* rH CO CO CD o rH rH rH o

CO CO CM CO pr- rH CO CO CD o rH rH rH o

CO rHO CD r- rH CO CO CO o rH rH rH O

CO o KD (?) p- rH co CM CD o rH rH rH O

oo co CO CO o

r- rH CM CM (?) o rH rH rH o

co ID CD o o

r- rH CM CM (?) o rH rH rH o

CD

m CD o

p* rH CM rH (?) o rH rH rH o

CD in CD oo rH r* rH CM rH (?) o rH rH rH o

co VD CO CM CM

r- rH CM rH (?) o rH rH rH O

(?) CO rH CM

rH CM rH (?) o rH rH rH o o CM rH rH CM

CD rH CM rH (?) O rH rH rH o o CM CM o CM CD rH CM rH (?) O rH rH rH O

rH CM rH rH CO

00 rH CM rH (?) o rH rH rH O

CM CM rH CM CO

CO rH CM rH CTi o rH rH rH O i—1 ii a) i rH rH rH 3 i -H *H -H c

fa i o o rH o rH o i > co > co >, CO *H

T3 i i—i

4J <D ns 4J as o ns 4J o ns 4J c i ns 4-> 0 H -H 4J 0 rH -H 4J 0 ns

ns i -H o ns ns o ns 1—1

ns

O ns rH 4J i 4-) i—! '—t

r4 •—i

ns rH -H •H rH CO rH

H

h i c i—1

ns o S-l rH 3 ns

H 14

D ns o o i as 4J *H u bl 4-J -H V 14 4J 4J -H "D 14 a +j i TS O 4-> 3 as O 4-> -H 3 H CO U hJ •H 3 rH 10 u i *H 0) 10 0 4-> p as co CO 4-> ns 3 as (0 CO 4J ns c

as i CO *H -H Qj ns £ -H as ns 0 V rH

H Q) nsO ns co i as CD a 2 0 U Q os 2 U c CzS Q CC Z 0 u i cc 0 H E35

Motor

Gasoline

1.07

1.07

1.06

1.05

1.05

1.07

1.07

1.07

1.07

1.07

1.07

1.08

1.08

1.08

1.09
Table

Ca-5.

Projected

fuel

price

indices

(excluding

general

inflation),

by

end-use

sector

and

fuel

type. 1 00 1 CO 00

X 1 CD

O CM CM in 00 *3* CM 1 rH | CO rH rH CO 00 rH O CD O') 00 rH rH O CD 1 O 1 • • 11 CM 11 o x—1 x—1 o o rH rH O o o X 1 rH rH O 1 CM 1 CD CM rH o in CM O CM 00 00 CD 00 CM 1 rH | CO X 1 i—1

CD COx

—1

O) CD O') CO

X

—1 O o CD 1 O 1 • • 11 CM 11 o rH rH o o rH o O o o rH x—1

rH

O 1 X 1 | o 00 rH o VO 00 O') 00 m m rH 00 CM 1 rH 1 0) x—1 x—1

CD CO

X

—1

O') CD O') 00

X

—1 X 1 o CD 1 O 1 • • 11 CM 11 o X 1 x—1 O o rH o O o o X—1 t—1

rH

O

O 1 O I 1—1

00 rH rH CO 00 o 00 in r- 00

X 1 CM CM

O 1 rH | X

—1 x—1

0) 00 rH o cd O') 00 3 1 X 1 o O') • 1 O 1 • x—1 11 CM 11 o rH x—1 O o rH rH o o o rH rH rH O

ii 1 cd i CM 00 o rH 00 00 O') 00 in r- 00 CD rH 00

00 1 O 1 0) rH rH O') CO rH CD CD CD 00

X

—1 O

O 0^

O') 1 O 1 • • cd 1 CM 1 O c—1

rH

O o rHO o o o rH rH rHO

r—i 1 i 1 00 | CM 00 o CM CD 00 rH 00

m CO CMO o P0

r—1 1 O 1 O')

x—1rH CD CD rH o CD CD CO rH rH o O') 1 O 1 • • • • i—1 1 CM 1 O rH X 1 o O rH rH o o o rH rH rH O

-H 1 i Pa 1 r- i CM 00 o CM O') CM O') 00 in O') rH CD

a. 1 O 1 cd rH rH O') CD rH CT) CD O') 00

x

—1 o CD CD 1 O 1 • • • • 1 CM 1 o rH x—1 o O rH O o o o rH rH O O

M 1 i V

0£

(1) U 1 VO | 00 rH O'! CM

O o V£> 00 vo o O') co 00

05 -H 1 O I cd rH o O') 0) rH CD CD CD O')

O o CD CD

XI 1 O 1 • • • c 1 CM 1 o t—1

rH

OO

T—1 O o O o rH

x

—1 O o ><

v*

H 1 1

a; 1 lD | rH CO 00 rH rH r* vo

X

—1

O) r*

u 1 O I cd rH

O CD

x

—1

CD CD 0^ CD o o CD CD *H 1 O 1 • • • • « P 1 CM 1 o t—1 X 1 o O rH o o o o rH rH O O

cu 1 1 a rH 1 i o r- 00 CM CT) CM 00 VO

m

o» a> 1 O 1 CTi

X

—1 o O') CD o CD CD CD CD

OO CD CD

D 1 O 1 • • • . c Cu 1 CM 1 O rH rH o o rH o o o O rH rH o o p r—1 11 i

00 I m CD VO 00 00 CO

m r- 00 00 VO VO •—1 1 O 1 CD O o cr> CD o CD CD CD CD O o CD CD

*H 1 O 1 • • P 1 CM 1 O x—1 x—1 o o rH

O o O

O rH rHOO

a 1 1 < 1 CM 1 m 00 in

m r* VO VD 00 VO rH VO r- XI 1 O 1 cd o o O') CD o O') CD CD CD o o CD CD D 1 O 1 • • • p 1 CM 1 o rH rH o o rH o o O O rH rH o o o 1 i <u -ro 1 rH 1 id CO VO in VO VO r- 00 Ln m rH VO 0 1 O 1 cd O O cd CT) O CD CD O^ CD o o CD CD P 1 O | • • CU 11 CM 11 o rH rH o o rH o o O o rH x—1 O o 1 O 1 00 00 VO r- in m 0" CD 00 o m 00 1 O 1 cd o o O) CT) o O') CD CD CD o o CD CD 1 O I • • • 11 CM 11 o rH rH o o rH o o O o rH X—1 O O 1 CD 1 CD CM r- CO 00 r- 00 CD CD CM o r- CD 1 CD | cd o O CD O') o CD CD CD CD O o CD O') 1 CD | • • • • 11 rH |1 o r—i x—1 o o rH o o O o rH rH o O

00o

a) 1 rH rH rH <D 3 1 •H •H •H c C

Cu 1 o o rH o 0 •H 1 >1 CO >, •H CO > -H CO *H rH

XI 1 i—1

4J <u nj

p a> o cd 4-> <u o cd 4-> o c 1 rd H .p O rH •H -p o »H •H 4-> O (0 w

(0 1 •H

u <0 tdu (0 «H cd o ro •—1

4-> (0 1 4J •H •H rH -H •H l—1

cfl 1—1 •H -r-l 1—1 cd rH P o P 1 G Ul i—1

03Up rH 3 cd

U P rH 3 cd 0 o 1 <D JJ •H U H 4-> -H T3 M 4-> •P •H H a

p

p 1 T5 o -P 3 a) o 4-) •H 3 •—i

CO

O •P •H 3 •—i w 0 u 1 •H a; o 4-> <D CO CO -P cd 3 <u CO CO 4J rd c 4-) a; 1 If) *—i

•H cu 03 i—1

-H d) <d o V i—1

•H a) cd 0 03 o m 1 d) u Q Pi o U Q QC 2; o G w Q os 2; U P s 1 CC u M tr<

36

.01

1.03

1.04

1.05

1.05

1.05

1.06

1.06

1.08

1.08

1.08

1.08

1.08

1.08
Table

Ca-5,

continued.

Projected

fuel

price

indices

(excluding

general

inflation),

by

end-use

sector

and

fuel

type.

on«Z><a«

JOa

'E3 1 00 1 lO 00 CM 0 CM

m 00 CO CO •vT CM CO in tH 1 CM 1 00 rH tH O 00 CM tH 0 00 r"~ CM CO CO 00 tH 1 O | • • • • 11 CM I1 0 tH tH l 1 0 tH tH x—1 0 0 tH t—1

tH 0 tH 1 r- 1 m 00 O 0 t—1

CD O') CO tH l—1 CD tH 1 CM 1 00 x—1 t—1 O 00 CM X—1 O CO CM 00 CO 00 t—1 1 0 1 • • 11 CM 11 0 rH t—1

tH 0 t—1

tH l 1 0 0 t 1 1

1 t—1 0 tH 1 VO 1 LO 00 CO CD 0 t—1

CO

m CD 00 00 0 00 rO 1 CM 1 CO x—1 X 1 O') CO CM X—I 0 CO r- CM CO CM 00 t—1 1 O 1 • • • • 1 CM 1 0 rH X 1 O 0 tH tH tH O 0 t 1 tH X—1 0 rH ,o 1 lO 1 m r- CO 00 0 0 CM CO O CO CO CD in O o 1 CM 1 CO rH tH cd CO CM rH 0 CD r- CM CM CM 00 tH • 1 O 1 • • • • • X—1 11 CM 11 0 x—1

rH 0 0 X

—1

tH tHO 0 tH tH tH 0 tH

II 1 1 in 00 CD 0 0 tH tH 0 00 CM 00 CM

O

CO 1 CM 1 CO rH t—1

CD 00 CM tH 0 cn r- CM CM CM 00 tH

cd 1 0 1 • • • • • O') 1 CM 1 0 tH tH O 0 tH tH tH O 0 t 1 tH tH 0 tH i—i 1 1 1 oo 1 LO CD co m 0 01 0 O 0 CD CM r- O 00 CD

tH 1 CM 1 00 tH tH cd 00 tH 1—1 O CD 0 CM CM CM 00O 1 O 1 • • • • • '—1 1 CM 1 0 tH tH 0 0 1—1 1—1

tH 0 0 tH tH t I 0 tH -H 1 1 P

a. 1 CM 1 LO CD CM 0 O'* O') CO rH CO tH CD r- O) CD < 1 CM 1 00 x—1 t 1 ai 00 tH 0 01 CD r* CM CM tH 00 O 1 O 1 • • • • 1 CM 1 0 X—1 X 1 O 0 tH 1—1 0 0 0 t 1 t 1 rH 0 tH

10 1 1 a)u 1 tH 1 LO CD CM CM 0 00 00 VO CM 00

O CO 0 CD -H 1 CM 1 00 tH tH O'! CO tH 0 O') CD CM CM rH CD O

T5 1 O I • • • • • C 1 CM 1 0 X—1

tH

O 0 tH tH 0 0 0 tH t 1 tH 0 tH

M 1 1

0) 1 O 1 in

m CM rH 0 r- 00

m CM 00 0 O 0 CD o 1 CM 1 00 x—1 t 1 O') CO t—1 O O') CD r- CM CM 1—1

CDO

•H 1 O | • • • • • P 1 CM 1 0 X 1 tH O 0 tH tH 0 0 0 t 1 l 1 tH 0 x—1 O4 1 1

i-H 1 CD | inm CM 0 0 r- VO CM 00 CD CM CO 0 CD

<L> 1 <H 1 00

x

—1 t—1

cd 00 t—1 O O) CD i> t—1

CM

O CD

O 3 1 0 1 • • • . • tu 1 CM 1 0 T 1 t—1 O 0 X 1 t—1 0 O 0 tH rH tH O tH t—1 1 ao 1 m CM O tH CD 00 CO O') CD O r* tH 00 '

1 1 rH 1 CO rH 1—1

cd CO rH 0 CD CD r* tH CM 0 CD

O

-H 1 0 1 • • • • P 1 CM 1 0 x—1 x—1 0 0 x—1 rH O O 0 t—1 tH 1—1 O X—1 a, 1 1 < 1 r- 1 CO t—1 O') tH m CO CO CD O') CD tH 00

T5 1 rH | CO rH

x

—1 00 00 t—1 O O') CD t—1 tH

O CD

O

<D 1 O 1 • • • . P 1 CM 1 0 t—1 tH 0 0 tH rH 0 0 0 t—1 tH tH 0 tH O 1 1 <D

-r~) 1 VO 1 CD ’sT CM o» CM CD

m CM CO 0 CD CO

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37
Table Cb-1. Projected average fuel price escalation rates, excluding general inflation,

by end-use sector and fuel type.

Census Region 1 (Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire,

New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont)

Percentage change compounded annually

1998 2003 2008 2013 2018 2023

Sector and Fuel to to to to to to

2003 2008 2013 2018 2023 2028

Residential

Electricity -1.5 -1.0 -0.6 -0.2 0.1 0.0

Distillate Oil 1.7 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.4

LPG 0.9 0.7 -0.3 -0.2 0.1 0.2

Natural Gas -0.6 -0.9 -0.9 0.3 0.9 1.0

Commercial

Electricity -2.2 -1.3 -0.8 -0.4 -0.1 0.0

Distillate Oil 1.5 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.5

Residual Oil -0.6 0.5 -0.3 0.7 1.2 0.8

Natural Gas -1.0 -0.7 -0.7 0.5 1.2 1.3

Coal -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.6 -0.6

Industrial

Electricity -2.1 -1.3 -1.2 -0.7 -0.1 0.0

Distillate Oil 1.2 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.5

Residual Oil -1.7 0.6 -0.3 0.9 1.3 0.9

Natural Gas -1.3 0.6 0.2 0.7 1.6 1.6

Coal -1.0 -0.7 -0.6 -0.3 -0.5 -0.8

Transportation

Motor Gasoline 0.8 0.4 0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.3

38
Table Cb-2. Projected average fuel price escalation rates, excluding general inflation,

by end-use sector and fuel type.

Census Region 2 (Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota,

Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, South Dakota, Wisconsin)

Percentage change compounded annually

1998 2003 2008 2013 2018 2023

Sector and Fuel to to to to to to

2003 2008 2013 2018 2023 2028

Residential

Electricity -0.7 -0.5 -1.0 -0.9 -0.3 0.0

Distillate Oil 1.3 0.9 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.4

LPG 0.9 1.0 -0.2 0.4 0.2 0.3

Natural Gas -1.0 -0.4 -0.5 0.4 1.5 1.6

Commercial

Electricity -0.8 -0.7 -1.2 -1.0 -0.3 0.0

Distillate Oil 0.9 1.2 0.5 0.8 0.5 0.5

Residual Oil 3.5 1.8 1.0 1.5 0.8 0.7

Natural Gas -0.9 -0.2 -0.4 0.5 1.6 1.7

Coal -0.7 -0.5 -0.3 -0.1 -0.4 -0.7

Industrial

Electricity -1.1 -0.9 -1.5 -1.2 -0.4 0.0

Distillate Oil 0.9 1.1 0.5 0.8 0.5 0.5

Residual Oil 2.9 1.8 1.0 1.4 0.8 0.7

Natural Gas -1.0 0.8 0.3 0.9 1.9 2.1

Coal -1.0 -0.7 -0.2 -0.2 -0.5 -0.7

Transportation

Motor Gasoline 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3

39
Table Cb-3. Projected average fuel price escalation rates, excluding general inflation,

by end-use sector and fuel type.

Census Region 3 (Alabama, Arkansas, Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia,

Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Mississippi, North Carolina,

Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, West Virginia)

Percentage change compounded annually

1998 2003 2008 2013 2018 2023

Sector and Fuel to to to to to to

2003 2008 2013 2018 2023 2028

Residential

Electricity -1.0 -0.7 -0.9 -0.6 -0.1 0.0

Distillate Oil 2 .

0

0.8 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.3

LPG 1.0 0.8 -0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2

Natural Gas -1.4 -0.7 0.0 0.1 1.2 1.4

Commercial

Electricity -1.0 -0.8 -1.0 -0.7 -0.1 0.0

Distillate Oil 2.2 1.1 0.5 0.8 0.5 0.5

Residual Oil 1.3 1.7 1.0 1.4 0.8 0.7

Natural Gas -1.2 -0.4 0.3 0.3 1.5 1.6

Coal -0.6 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.4 -0.6

Industrial

Electricity -1.3 -1.0 -1.3 -0.8 -0.2 0.0

Distillate Oil 2.0 1.1 0.5 0.8 0.5 0.5

Residual Oil 1.6 1.8 1.0 1.5 0.8 0.8

Natural Gas -0.7 0.6 1.2 0.8 2.4 2.3

Coal -0.8 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.7

Transportation

Motor Gasoline 1.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3

40
Table Cb-4. Projected average fuel price escalation rates, excluding general inflation,

by end-use sector and fuel type.

Census Region 4 (Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Montana, Nevada,

New Mexico, Oregon, Utah, Washington, Wyoming)

Percentage change compounded annually

1998 2003 2008 2013 2018 2023

Sector and Fuel to to to to to to

2003 2008 2013 2018 2023 2028

Residential

Electricity -1.2 -0.1 -0.6 -0.7 -0.1 0.0

Distillate Oil 1.7 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4

LPG 0.9 0.8 0.7 -0.1 0.1 0.2

Natural Gas -1.0 -0.4 -0.7 -0.6 1.1 1.4

Commercial

Electricity -1.7 -1.3 -0.6 -0.9 -0.1 0.0

Distillate Oil 1.0 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5

Residual Oil 1.2 1.1 0.6 0.4 0.8 0.8

Natural Gas -0.5 -0.2 -0.5 -0.4 1.4 1.6

Coal -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 -0.4 -0.4 -0.5

Industrial

Electricity -1.4 -1.5 -0.9 -0.9 -0.1 0.0

Distillate Oil 0.8 0.8 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4

Residual Oil 1.6 1.4 0.6 0.6 0.9 0.8

Natural Gas 0.4 1.3 0.6 -0.1 2.2 2.3

Coal -0.7 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.5 -0.8

Transportation

Motor Gasoline 0.7 0.8 -0.2 -0.3 0.4 0.3

41
Table Cb-5. Projected average fuel price escalation rates, excluding general inflation,

by end-use sector and fuel type.

United States Average

Percentage change compounded annually

1998 2003 2008 2013 2018 2023

Sector and Fuel to to to to to to

2003 2008 2013 2018 2023 2028

Residential

Electricity -1.0 -0.6 -0.8 -0.6 -0.1 0.0

Distillate Oil 1.7 0.7 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4

LPG 1.1 0.9 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2

Natural Gas -1.2 -0.6 -0.6 0.1 1.2 1.4

Commercial

Electricity -1.4 -1.0 -1.0 -0.8 -0.1 0.0

Distillate Oil 1.5 0.9 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.5

Residual Oil -0.4 0.6 -0.1 0.7 1.2 0.8

Natural Gas -1.0 -0.4 -0.3 0.3 1.5 1.5

Coal -0.6 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.5 -0.5

Industrial

Electricity -1.4 -1.1 -1.3 -0.9 -0.2 0.0

Distillate Oil 1.3 1.0 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5

Residual Oil 0.6 1.4 0.5 1.2 1.0 0.8

Natural Gas -0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 2.2 2.2

Coal -0.8 -0.6 -0.3 -0.2 -0.6 -0.6

Transportation

Motor Gasoline 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.3

42
PART II: ENERGY PRICE INDICES FOR PRIVATE SECTOR LCC

ANALYSIS

This section presents tables of projected nominal (i.e., including inflation) fuel price indices for four

fuels in the residential sector and five fuels in the commercial sector for each of the years from 1998

through 2028. These price indices are based on the DOE energy price projections, reported in part

I-B of this document, used to calculate the FEMP and OMB UPV* factors for energy costs. The

tables are provided as an update to similar tables originally published in Comprehensive Guide for

Least-Cost Energy Decisions (NBS SP 709).

As a convenience for the user, the indices include the effect of four alternative, hypothetical rates of

general price inflation: 3, 4, 5, and 6%. Selection ofthese rates is intended in no way to suggest what

actual rates might be. Use ofthe indices produce price estimates which are in current dollars, inclusive

of general price inflation. Current dollar prices are needed when discounting is performed with

discount rates that include general price inflation (i.e., nominal or market discount rates).

The indices based on inflation rates of 3, 4, 5, and 6% allow the analyst to perform evaluations based on the assumption of a positive rate of general price inflation that changes the purchasing power of

the dollar. Performing evaluations in current dollars is sometimes preferred for private investment

decisions, primarily because it facilitates the treatment of taxes.

The indices in Tables S-l through S-5 are derived from the indices reported in Tables Ca-1 through

Ca-5 by means of the following equation:

= /c

X (1 + g)

N

,

where Is = index found in Tables S-l through S-5;

Ic = index found in Tables Ca-1 through Ca-5;

g = annual rate of general price inflation in decimal form; and

N = number of years, in this case equal to the year of the index minus 1998

Example of How to Use the Indices:

Suppose you wish to estimate the annual cost of natural gas for a house in Maryland in year 2001

,

given the annual cost in 1998 (April 1) prices, and you expect an annual inflation rate of 3% per year. From table S-3, find the column with residential natural gas indices at an inflation rate of 3%, then

locate the index for the year 2001 . This index is 1 .04. Multiply the annual cost in 1 998 prices to find

the estimated annual cost in year-2001 prices.

If this annual cost in year-2001 prices is to be discounted to present value, you must use a nominal

discount rate that includes the same assumption with regard to general price inflation (3% in this example). To obtain a present value cost over the entire study period, the present value calculations

must be repeated for each year that there are natural gas costs, and the results summed (UPV' factors

are not given for private sector use because of the large number of tables required to cover potential

43
discount rates that might be used by the analyst.) The BLCC computer program can perform LCC

analyses using any inflation rate and discount rate, in constant or in current (market) dollars. The

DISCOUNT program, included with BLCC, can compute UPV* factors based on DOE energy price

escalation rates using any inflation rate and discount rate. (See page iv for more information on these

programs.) Of course, the private sector analyst may use the UPV* factors reported in Part I, provided the analysis is performed in constant dollars and the desired discount rate corresponds to the DOE or OMB discount rates used in Part I.

For further explanation of the use of these indices, see NBS Special Publication 709, appendix B,

Part I.

The data in the tables that follow are reported for the four Census regions and the U.S. average.

Figure B-l presents a map showing the states corresponding to the four Census regions. The Census

regions do not include American Samoa, Canal Zone, Guam, Puerto Rico, Trust Territory of the

Pacific Islands, or the Virgin Islands. Analysts offederal projects in these areas should use data which

are "reasonable under the circumstances," and may refer to the tables with U.S. average data for

guidance.

44
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52
Table

S-5.

Projected

fuel

price

indices

with

assumed

general

price

inflation

rates

of

3,

4,

5,

and 6

percent,

by

end-use

sector

and

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type.

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53
Table

S-5,

continued.

Projected

fuel

price

indices

with

assumed

general

price

inflation

rates

of

3,

4,

5,

and 6

percent,

by

end-use

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54