Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

OE ENERGY

MARKET SNAPSHOT

West Version – Data

Office of Enforcement

Federal Energy Regulatory Commission

May 2014

June 2014
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov

2014 Summer Assessment

http://www.ferc.gov/market-oversight/reports-analyses/mkt

15-14.pdf

2014 Summer Assessme

2
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov

Office of Energy Projects Energy Infrastructure U

http://www.ferc.gov/legal/staff-reports.asp

(see “Energy Infrastructure” tab) 

Infrastructure Report

3
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov

National Slides

4
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov

5

NOAA 3 Month Outlook
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov

Pitts

burgh

Calgary

City Location

Chicago

N

Oklahoma

City

Los Dallas

Angeles

Sacra

mento Denver

Portland

Houston New 

Orleans 

Vancouver

This YearLast Year5 Year Average

Cumulative HDDs by City 

Source: Bloomberg Weather

Atla

Updated

144

161128

192

133173163

328749

5

3113

2

11

2

2

7

9

199263

233252267

1

2

7

148179

14

2

175242

1

8

1565

11

6

25

3

63

May

6

6
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov

Pitts

burgh

Calgary

City Location

Chicago

N

Oklahoma

City

Los Dallas

Angeles

Sacra

mento Denver

Portland

Houston New 

Orleans 

Vancouver

This YearLast Year5 Year Average

Cumulative CDDs by City 

Source: Bloomberg Weather

Atla

Updated

May

6

457

607378

320308400

102

8784

2

1

8

129169

292303333

288312394

131

203926

000

181510

132113

76

168104

63

171119

7
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov

Columbia

TCO

AECO 

Pricing PointBOLD – This YearGreen – % increase from previous yearRed – % decrease from previous year

ChicagoCitygate

Tran

Z6-

NGPL

Tex-Okla

El Paso

Permian

SoCal 

Border

PG&E

Citygate

CIG

NW 

Sumas

HSC Henry Hub

Spot Natural Gas Prices 

Average ($/MMBtu)

Source: ICE Updated

May

6

$4.

8%

$4.4

2

9%

$4.1

6

9%

$4.20

13%

$4.

0

4

14%

$3.89

19%

$4.11

11%

$3.69

15%

$3.75

36%

$3.7

8

19%

$4.33

16%

$3.9

7

17%

8
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov

Columbia

TCO

Pricing PointBOLD – This yearGreen – % increase from previous yearRed – % decrease from previous year

ChicagoCitygate

Tra

Z6

NGPL

Tex-Okla

El Paso

Permian

SoCal 

Border

PG&E

Citygate

CIG

NW 

Sumas

HSC Henry Hub

F

Spot Natural Gas Trading Volu

Average (MMBtus)

Source: ICE Updated

May

6

1

6

1

30,377

‐63%

851,1

3

7

‐14%

55

3,057

15%

7

67,93

7

32%

41

3,880

‐12%

4

37,63

7

‐20%

141,190

259%

63,536

14%

833,390

37%

606,677

64%

9
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

U.S. NG Supply and Demand May 2013 vs. May 20

National Natural Gas Market Overview: U.S. Supply and Consumption

Note: Balance includes all amounts not attributable to other categories.Source: Derived from Bentek Energy data 

0

102030405060708090

100

2013 2014

Average Daily Volume (Bcfd)

US Natural Gas Supply

0

102030405060708090

100

2013 

Average Daily Volume (Bcfd)

US Natural Gas D

Total Change in Demand

Power 

Generation

Net Dry Gas

Production

Net Pipeline

Imports

3.1%

3.3%

-45.5%

3.5% 

LNG Imports

Industrial

Total Change in Supply 4

Residential/ 

Commercial

10
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

National Natural Gas Market Overview: Canadian Imports

Regional Imports from Canada

Source: Derived from Bentek Energy data 

(2)

02468

1012

Jan-05

Jul-05

Jan-06

Jul-06

Jan-07

Jul-07

Jan-08

Jul-08

Jan-09

Jul-09

Jan-10

Jul-10

Jan-11

Jul-11

Jan-12

Jul-12

Bcfd

Northwest NeMidwest Net INortheast Net 

11
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

Total U.S. Natural Gas Demand All Sectors

National Natural Gas Market Overview: Total US Gas Demand

Source: Derived from Bentek Energy data, derived from interstate pipeline flow and modeled data. 

0

20406080

100120140160

Bcfd

2009-2013 Ran2014

12
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

U.S. Natural Gas Consumption for Power Generat

National Natural Gas Market Overview: NG Consumption for Power Generation

Source: Derived from Bentek Energy data 

0

200,000400,000600,000800,000

1,000,0001,200,000

MMcf/month

2009-13 Range2014

13
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

EIA National Storage Inventories by Region

National Natural Gas Market Overview: Natural Gas Storage Inventory

Source: Derived from Bloomberg Data

Notes:

0

500

1,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,500

U.S Storage Levels (Bcf)

East Storage LevelWest Storage LevelProduction Area Storage Level5 Year Average

14
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

EIA National Storage Inventories

National Natural Gas Market Overview: Natural Gas Storage Inventory

Source: Derived from Bloomberg Data

Notes:

0

500

1,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,500

Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 

5 Year Range 2013 

15
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

EIA Regional Storage Inventories

National Natural Gas Market Overview: Natural Gas Storage Inventory

Source: Derived from Bloomberg Data

Notes:

16
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

Monthly U.S. Dry Gas Production – Lower 48 Stat

National Natural Gas Market Overview: Monthly U.S. Dry Gas Production

Note: Prior to July 2010, chart was derived from a combination of EIA and Bentek Energy data

Source: Derived from Bentek Energy data 

1020304050607080

Bcfd

Dry Production

17
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

NG Rigs by Type

National Natural Gas Market Overview: Rig Count by Type

Source: Derived from Bloomberg dataNotes:

0

200400600800

1,0001,2001,4001,6001,800

May‐10

Aug‐10

Nov‐10

Feb‐11

May‐11

Aug‐11

Nov‐11

Feb‐12

May‐12

Aug‐12

Nov‐12

Feb‐13

May‐13

A13

Baker Hughes Rig Count (Rigs)

Oil Rigs Gas Rigs

18
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

NG Rig by Direction

National Natural Gas Market Overview: Rig Count by Direction

Source: Derived from Bloomberg dataNotes:

0

500

1,0001,5002,0002,500

Baker Hughes Rigs By Drill Type Vertical Horizontal Directio

19
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

Daily Gas Sendout from Existing U.S. LNG Facilit

National Natural Gas Market Overview: LNG Market-Daily Gas Sendout

Notes: Everett data includes flows onto the AGT and TGP interstate lines, plus estimates of flows to the Mystic 7 power plant, Keyspan Boston 

Gas, and LNG trucked out of the terminal. Excludes flows to the Freeport LNG which flows via intrastate pipelines and flows to the Mystic 8 and 9 power plants.Source: Derived from Bentek Energy data 

0

500

1,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,5005,000

Daily LNG Sendout (MMcfd)

Sabine PasLake CharlGolden PaFreeportNortheast ExcelerateCameronElba IslandCove PointEverett (Gr

0

1,0002,0003,0004,000 Monthly Average

20
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

Source: Waterborne Energy, Inc. Data in $US/MMBtu

World LNG Estimated July 2014 Landed Pr

Updated 

National Natural Gas Market Overview: World LNG Landed Prices

Cove Point

$4.50

India

$11.55

UK

$8.75

Spain

$9.05

Belgium

$8.84

Korea

$12.40

Lake Charles

$3.96 Altamira $4.60

Cove Point

$4.40

India

$11.55

UK

$8.75

Spain

$9.15

Belgium

$8.99

Korea

$13.10

Lake Charles

$3.93 Altamira $4.57

Cove Point

$4.50

India

$11.55

UK

$8.75

Spain

$9.05

Belgium

$8.84

Korea

$12.40

Lake Charles

$3.96 Altamira $4.60

Cove Point

India

UK

Spain

Belgium

Korea

Lake Charles

Altamira

Rio de Janeiro

Bahia Blanca

Chin

Canaport

$3.61 $4.76

$7.16

$4.13

$13.63

$13.89

$13.73

$ 9.80

$7.38

$12.80 $12.

$13.25

21
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

Historical and Future World Gas Prices

National Natural Gas Market Overview: LNG Competitive Price Hubs

Source: Derived from Bloomberg data Notes:

$0$5

$10$15$20$25$30

Jun‐12

Aug‐12

Oct‐12

Dec‐12

Feb‐13

Apr‐13

Jun‐13

Aug‐13

Oct‐13

Dec‐13

Feb‐14

Apr‐14

Jun‐14

Aug‐14

Oct‐14

$/MMBtu

Henry Hub TZ6 NYAlgonquin Citygates UKNBPJapanese LNG Spot Price Futures Price

22
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

National Natural Gas Market Overview: WTI vs Brent Oil Price

Source: Derived from Bloomberg data 

WTI vs Brent Crude Oil Price

$60$70$80$90

$100$110$120$130

Oil Prices($/Barrel)

WtI Oil Brent C

23
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

National Natural Gas Market Overview: Nymex Futures Curve

Source: Derived from Bloomberg data 

Nymex Futures Curves

$0.00$1.00$2.00$3.00$4.00$5.00$6.00

Jul‐14

Sep‐14

Nov‐14

Jan‐15

Mar‐15

May‐15

Jul‐15

Sep‐15

Nov‐15

Jan‐16

Mar‐16

May‐16

Jul‐16

Sep‐16

Nov‐16

Nymex Futures Curves($/MMBtu) 6/2/2013 12/2/2013

5/4/2014 6/4/2014

24
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

US Total Generation Mix

National Electricity Market Overview: Generation Mix

0

50000

100000150000200000250000300000350000400000450000

Monthly Generation (GWh)

US Total Generation Mix,

Feb '12 to Mar '14

Coal Generation in Mar '14 was 137004 GNatGas Generation in Mar '14 was 77505 Nuclear Generation in Mar '14 was 62395 Hydro Generation in Mar '14 was 24243 GOther Renewable Generation in Mar '14 wOil Generation in Mar '14 was 965 GWh (0

Total Generation in Mar '14 was 327824 G

States: All

25
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

Natural Gas and Fuels MWest
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

West Annual Average Day Ahead Natural Gas Pric

West Natural Gas Market: Annual Hub Prices

Source: ICE Notes:

Up

Average Day

Ahead Prices

($/MMBtu)

SoCal

Border

Opal

Wyoming

Plant AECO USD

El Paso

Permian

GTN Malin

Oregon

Henr

Hub

Annual 4.05 3.81 3.66 3.87 3.94 3.Summer 4.18 3.89 3.78 3.99 4.03 4.Winter 2011/2012 2.98 2.75 2.49 2.69 2.86 2.Annual 2.91 2.68 2.39 2.67 2.73 2.Summer 2.83 2.58 2.24 2.61 2.61 2.Winter 2012/2013 3.62 3.46 3.22 3.38 3.52 3.Annual 3.83 3.65 3.09 3.63 3.71 3.Summer 3.82 3.61 2.94 3.63 3.67 3.Winter 2013/2014 4.89 4.88 4.36 4.68 4.88 4.Annual 5.07 5.02 4.68 4.86 5.03 4.Summer 4.65 4.44 4.28 4.42 4.50 4.Winter 2014/2015

2011 2012 2013 2014 YTD

27
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

West Daily Day-Ahead Prices

West Natural Gas Market: Day-Ahead Prices

Source: ICE Notes:

Up

$0.0$5.0

$10.0$15.0$20.0$25.0$30.0$35.0

Spot Day-Ahead Prices ($/MMBtu)

SoCal BorderOpal WyominAECO USDEl Paso PermGTN Malin Ore

$0$1$2$3$4$5$6$7$8

2011 2012 2013 2014

30 Day Moving Avg

28
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

West Daily Day-Ahead Basis

West Natural Gas Market: Day-Ahead Basis

Source: ICE Notes:

Up

-$5.0

$0.0$5.0

$10.0$15.0$20.0$25.0

Day Ahead Basis ($/MMBtu)

SoCal Border BasisOpal Wyoming Plant BasisAECO USD BasisEl Paso Permian BasisGTN Malin Oregon Basis

-$2.0-$1.0

$0.0$1.0$2.0

2011 2012 20

30D Movin

29
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

West Average Monthly Basis

West Natural Gas Market: Average Monthly Basis

Source: ICENotes:

Up

-$0.40-$0.20

$0.00$0.20$0.40$0.60$0.80$1.00$1.20

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

2012 2013 

Avg Monthly Day-Ahead Basi ($/MMBtu)

Avg Monthly SoCal BasisAvg Monthly Opal BasisAvg Monthly El Paso Permian BasisAvg Monthly GTN Malin Basis

30
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

Daily Rockies Natural Gas Demand All Sectors

West Natural Gas Market: Daily Demand

Source: Derived from Bentek Energy data

01234567

Bcfd

2009-2013 R2014

31
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

Daily Southwest and Northwest Natural Gas Demand A

West Natural Gas Market: Daily Demand

Source: Derived from Bentek Energy dataNote: Data derived from interstate natural gas pipeline flows. 

02468

1012141618

Bcfd

2009-2013 Range2014

012345

Bcfd

Southwest Northwes

32
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

West Natural Gas Consumption for Power Genera

West Natural Gas Market: NG Consumption for Power Generation

Source: Derived from Bentek Energy data 

0

50,000

100,000150,000200,000250,000

MMcf/month

2009-13 Range2014

33
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

Electricity MarketsWest
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

CAISO Real Time Prices—Two Year History 

West Electricity Market: CAISO Real Time Prices

-50

0

50

100150200250300350

May-12

Jun-12

Jul-12

Aug-12

Sep-12

Oct-12

Nov-12

Dec-12

Jan-13

Feb-13

Mar-13

Apr-13

May-13

Jun-13

Jul-13

Aug-13

Sep-13

Oct-13

Nov-13

Dec-13

Jan-14

Weighted Daily Avg ($/MWh)

Prior Year Yesterday's SCE Daily Avg Real Time Price Yesterday's SDG&E Avg Real Time Price was $45.11. Yesterday's PG&E Daily Avg Real Time Pri

Source: Ge

35
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

CAISO System Daily Average Load —Two Year Hist

West Electricity Market: CAISO Average Daily Load

05

1015202530354045

Weighted Daily Avg Load (GW)

Prior Year Yesterday's average on peak load was 26 GW. Yesterday's average off‐pea

Source: Genscape via Bloomberg

36
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

‐5000

0

5000

10000150002000025000300003500040000

Monthly Generation (GWh)

Mountain Regional Generation Mix,

Feb '12 to Mar '14

Coal Generation in Mar '14 was 15353 Gas Generation in Mar '14 was 4285 GWHydro Generation in Mar '14 was 3157 Othr Renew Generation in Mar '14 was Nuclear Generation in Mar '14 was 296Oil Generation in Mar '14 was 30 GWh 

Total Generation in Mar '14 was 28634 

States: AZ, CO, ID, MT, NM, NV, UT, WY

37
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

0

5000

10000150002000025000300003500040000

Monthly Generation (GWh)

Pacific Contiguous Regional Generation Mix,

Feb '12 to Mar '14

Hydro Generation in Mar '14 Gas Generation in Mar '14 wNuclear Generation in Mar 'Renew Generation in Mar '1Coal Generation in Mar '14 Oil Generation in Mar '14 w

Total Generation in Mar '14 

States: CA, OR, WA

38
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

One Year Ago One Month Ago 

2/2/2014 3/2/2014 

California 46% 27% 

Idaho 87% 78% 

Montana 96% 111% 

Oregon 94% 38% 

Washington 115% 53% 

Columbia River Basin 98% 64% 

Source: California Department of Water Resources, U.S. Department of Agriculture NatConservation Service

Northwest Snowpack Improves

State/Region

Snow Water Equivalent

(% of Historic Median)

Northwest Snowpack

39
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

Monthly Hydrogeneration by Footprint

Source: Derived from Energy Velocity and BPA data.

40
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

Hydrogeneration in BPA by Year

0

2,0004,0006,0008,000

10,00012,000

GWh

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20

Source: BPA

41