Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

OE ENERGY

MARKET SNAPSHOT

Central Version – Data

Office of Enforcement

Federal Energy Regulatory Commission

May 2014

June 2014
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov

2014 Summer Assessment

http://www.ferc.gov/market-oversight/reports-analyses/mkt

15-14.pdf

2014 Summer Assessme

2
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov

Office of Energy Projects Energy Infrastructure U

http://www.ferc.gov/legal/staff-reports.asp

(see “Energy Infrastructure” tab) 

Infrastructure Report

3
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov

National Slides

4
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov

5

NOAA 3 Month Outlook
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov

Pitts

burgh

Calgary

City Location

Chicago

N

Oklahoma

City

Los Dallas

Angeles

Sacra

mento Denver

Portland

Houston New 

Orleans 

Vancouver

This YearLast Year5 Year Average

Cumulative HDDs by City 

Source: Bloomberg Weather

Atla

Updated

144

161128

192

133173163

328749

5

3113

2

11

2

2

7

9

199263

233252267

1

2

7

148179

14

2

175242

1

8

1565

11

6

25

3

63

May

6

6
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov

Pitts

burgh

Calgary

City Location

Chicago

N

Oklahoma

City

Los Dallas

Angeles

Sacra

mento Denver

Portland

Houston New 

Orleans 

Vancouver

This YearLast Year5 Year Average

Cumulative CDDs by City 

Source: Bloomberg Weather

Atla

Updated

May

6

457

607378

320308400

102

8784

2

1

8

129169

292303333

288312394

131

203926

000

181510

132113

76

168104

63

171119

7
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov

Columbia

TCO

AECO 

Pricing PointBOLD – This YearGreen – % increase from previous yearRed – % decrease from previous year

ChicagoCitygate

Tran

Z6-

NGPL

Tex-Okla

El Paso

Permian

SoCal 

Border

PG&E

Citygate

CIG

NW 

Sumas

HSC Henry Hub

Spot Natural Gas Prices 

Average ($/MMBtu)

Source: ICE Updated

May

6

$4.

8%

$4.4

2

9%

$4.1

6

9%

$4.20

13%

$4.

0

4

14%

$3.89

19%

$4.11

11%

$3.69

15%

$3.75

36%

$3.7

8

19%

$4.33

16%

$3.9

7

17%

8
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov

Columbia

TCO

Pricing PointBOLD – This yearGreen – % increase from previous yearRed – % decrease from previous year

ChicagoCitygate

Tra

Z6

NGPL

Tex-Okla

El Paso

Permian

SoCal 

Border

PG&E

Citygate

CIG

NW 

Sumas

HSC Henry Hub

F

Spot Natural Gas Trading Volu

Average (MMBtus)

Source: ICE Updated

May

6

1

6

1

30,377

‐63%

851,1

3

7

‐14%

55

3,057

15%

7

67,93

7

32%

41

3,880

‐12%

4

37,63

7

‐20%

141,190

259%

63,536

14%

833,390

37%

606,677

64%

9
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

U.S. NG Supply and Demand May 2013 vs. May 20

National Natural Gas Market Overview: U.S. Supply and Consumption

Note: Balance includes all amounts not attributable to other categories.Source: Derived from Bentek Energy data 

0

102030405060708090

100

2013 2014

Average Daily Volume (Bcfd)

US Natural Gas Supply

0

102030405060708090

100

2013 

Average Daily Volume (Bcfd)

US Natural Gas D

Total Change in Demand

Power 

Generation

Net Dry Gas

Production

Net Pipeline

Imports

3.1%

3.3%

-45.5%

3.5% 

LNG Imports

Industrial

Total Change in Supply 4

Residential/ 

Commercial

10
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

National Natural Gas Market Overview: Canadian Imports

Regional Imports from Canada

Source: Derived from Bentek Energy data 

(2)

02468

1012

Jan-05

Jul-05

Jan-06

Jul-06

Jan-07

Jul-07

Jan-08

Jul-08

Jan-09

Jul-09

Jan-10

Jul-10

Jan-11

Jul-11

Jan-12

Jul-12

Bcfd

Northwest NeMidwest Net INortheast Net 

11
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

Total U.S. Natural Gas Demand All Sectors

National Natural Gas Market Overview: Total US Gas Demand

Source: Derived from Bentek Energy data, derived from interstate pipeline flow and modeled data. 

0

20406080

100120140160

Bcfd

2009-2013 Ran2014

12
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

U.S. Natural Gas Consumption for Power Generat

National Natural Gas Market Overview: NG Consumption for Power Generation

Source: Derived from Bentek Energy data 

0

200,000400,000600,000800,000

1,000,0001,200,000

MMcf/month

2009-13 Range2014

13
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

EIA National Storage Inventories by Region

National Natural Gas Market Overview: Natural Gas Storage Inventory

Source: Derived from Bloomberg Data

Notes:

0

500

1,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,500

U.S Storage Levels (Bcf)

East Storage LevelWest Storage LevelProduction Area Storage Level5 Year Average

14
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

EIA National Storage Inventories

National Natural Gas Market Overview: Natural Gas Storage Inventory

Source: Derived from Bloomberg Data

Notes:

0

500

1,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,500

Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 

5 Year Range 2013 

15
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

EIA Regional Storage Inventories

National Natural Gas Market Overview: Natural Gas Storage Inventory

Source: Derived from Bloomberg Data

Notes:

16
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

Monthly U.S. Dry Gas Production – Lower 48 Stat

National Natural Gas Market Overview: Monthly U.S. Dry Gas Production

Note: Prior to July 2010, chart was derived from a combination of EIA and Bentek Energy data

Source: Derived from Bentek Energy data 

1020304050607080

Bcfd

Dry Production

17
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

NG Rigs by Type

National Natural Gas Market Overview: Rig Count by Type

Source: Derived from Bloomberg dataNotes:

0

200400600800

1,0001,2001,4001,6001,800

May‐10

Aug‐10

Nov‐10

Feb‐11

May‐11

Aug‐11

Nov‐11

Feb‐12

May‐12

Aug‐12

Nov‐12

Feb‐13

May‐13

A13

Baker Hughes Rig Count (Rigs)

Oil Rigs Gas Rigs

18
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

NG Rig by Direction

National Natural Gas Market Overview: Rig Count by Direction

Source: Derived from Bloomberg dataNotes:

0

500

1,0001,5002,0002,500

Baker Hughes Rigs By Drill Type Vertical Horizontal Directio

19
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

Daily Gas Sendout from Existing U.S. LNG Facilit

National Natural Gas Market Overview: LNG Market-Daily Gas Sendout

Notes: Everett data includes flows onto the AGT and TGP interstate lines, plus estimates of flows to the Mystic 7 power plant, Keyspan Boston 

Gas, and LNG trucked out of the terminal. Excludes flows to the Freeport LNG which flows via intrastate pipelines and flows to the Mystic 8 and 9 power plants.Source: Derived from Bentek Energy data 

0

500

1,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,5005,000

Daily LNG Sendout (MMcfd)

Sabine PasLake CharlGolden PaFreeportNortheast ExcelerateCameronElba IslandCove PointEverett (Gr

0

1,0002,0003,0004,000 Monthly Average

20
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

Source: Waterborne Energy, Inc. Data in $US/MMBtu

World LNG Estimated July 2014 Landed Pr

Updated 

National Natural Gas Market Overview: World LNG Landed Prices

Cove Point

$4.50

India

$11.55

UK

$8.75

Spain

$9.05

Belgium

$8.84

Korea

$12.40

Lake Charles

$3.96 Altamira $4.60

Cove Point

$4.40

India

$11.55

UK

$8.75

Spain

$9.15

Belgium

$8.99

Korea

$13.10

Lake Charles

$3.93 Altamira $4.57

Cove Point

$4.50

India

$11.55

UK

$8.75

Spain

$9.05

Belgium

$8.84

Korea

$12.40

Lake Charles

$3.96 Altamira $4.60

Cove Point

India

UK

Spain

Belgium

Korea

Lake Charles

Altamira

Rio de Janeiro

Bahia Blanca

Chin

Canaport

$3.61 $4.76

$7.16

$4.13

$13.63

$13.89

$13.73

$ 9.80

$7.38

$12.80 $12.

$13.25

21
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

Historical and Future World Gas Prices

National Natural Gas Market Overview: LNG Competitive Price Hubs

Source: Derived from Bloomberg data Notes:

$0$5

$10$15$20$25$30

Jun‐12

Aug‐12

Oct‐12

Dec‐12

Feb‐13

Apr‐13

Jun‐13

Aug‐13

Oct‐13

Dec‐13

Feb‐14

Apr‐14

Jun‐14

Aug‐14

Oct‐14

$/MMBtu

Henry Hub TZ6 NYAlgonquin Citygates UKNBPJapanese LNG Spot Price Futures Price

22
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

National Natural Gas Market Overview: WTI vs Brent Oil Price

Source: Derived from Bloomberg data 

WTI vs Brent Crude Oil Price

$60$70$80$90

$100$110$120$130

Oil Prices($/Barrel)

WtI Oil Brent C

23
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

National Natural Gas Market Overview: Nymex Futures Curve

Source: Derived from Bloomberg data 

Nymex Futures Curves

$0.00$1.00$2.00$3.00$4.00$5.00$6.00

Jul‐14

Sep‐14

Nov‐14

Jan‐15

Mar‐15

May‐15

Jul‐15

Sep‐15

Nov‐15

Jan‐16

Mar‐16

May‐16

Jul‐16

Sep‐16

Nov‐16

Nymex Futures Curves($/MMBtu) 6/2/2013 12/2/2013

5/4/2014 6/4/2014

24
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

US Total Generation Mix

National Electricity Market Overview: Generation Mix

0

50000

100000150000200000250000300000350000400000450000

Monthly Generation (GWh)

US Total Generation Mix,

Feb '12 to Mar '14

Coal Generation in Mar '14 was 137004 GNatGas Generation in Mar '14 was 77505 Nuclear Generation in Mar '14 was 62395 Hydro Generation in Mar '14 was 24243 GOther Renewable Generation in Mar '14 wOil Generation in Mar '14 was 965 GWh (0

Total Generation in Mar '14 was 327824 G

States: All

25
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

Natural Gas and Fuels MCentral
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

Midwest Annual Average Day-Ahead Natural Gas Pr

Midwest Natural Gas Market: Annual Hub Prices

Source: Derived from ICE data Notes:

U

Average Day

Ahead Prices

($/MMBtu)

Chicago

City Gate MichCon

AECO C

Hub

Natural

Gas/USD

Dawn

Ontario

USD

NNG/NBP

Ventura

Henry

Hub

Annual 4.12 4.20 3.66 4.37 4.03 3.9Summer 4.24 4.33 3.78 4.44 4.13 4.Winter 2011/2012 2.87 2.94 2.49 3.21 2.78 2.Annual 2.85 2.90 2.39 3.07 2.77 2.Summer 2.76 2.80 2.24 2.93 2.70 2.Winter 2012/2013 3.63 3.67 3.22 3.84 3.57 3.4Annual 3.86 3.92 3.09 4.08 3.80 3.Summer 3.85 3.97 2.94 4.15 3.77 3.Winter 2013/2014 7.59 7.65 4.36 8.68 8.19 4.Annual 7.72 7.85 4.68 8.83 8.29 4.8Summer 4.64 4.77 4.28 4.80 4.58 4.Winter 2014/2015

2011 2012 2013 2014 YTD

27
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

Midwest Day-Ahead Prices

Midwest Natural Gas Market: Day-Ahead Prices

Source: Derived from ICE data Notes:

Upda

$0

$10$20$30$40$50$60

Day-Ahead Prices ($/MMBtu)

Chicago City Gate MichConAECO (USD/MMBtu) Dawn Ontario USNorthern Natural Ventura

$0$5

$10$15$20$25

2011 2012 2013 2014

30 Day Moving Avg

28
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

Midwest Natural Gas Market: Average Basis to Henry Hub

Source: Derived from ICE data Notes:

U

Midwest Day-Ahead Basis

-$2.50

$2.50$7.50

$12.50$17.50$22.50$27.50$32.50$37.50

Day Ahead Basis ($/MMBtu)

Chicago City Gate BasisMichCon BasisAECO (USD/MMBtu) BasisDawn Ontario USD Basis

‐$5

$0$5

$10$15$20 30D Moving Avg

29
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

Midwest Natural Gas Market: Average Monthly Basis

Source: Derived from ICE data Notes:

U

Midwest Monthly Average Basis Value To Henry 

-$4-$2

$0$2$4$6$8

$10$12$14

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

2012 2013 

Day-Ahead Basis Averaged Monthly 

($/MMBtu)

Avg Monthly Chicago City Gate BasisAvg Monthly MichCon BasisAvg Monthly AECO BasisAvg Monthly Dawn Ontario BasisAvg Monthly Northern Natural Ventura Basis

30
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

Daily Midwest Natural Gas Demand All Sectors

Midwest Natural Gas Market: Daily Demand

Source: Derived from Bentek Energy data

05

101520253035

Bcfd

2009-2013 Ran2014

31
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

Midwest Natural Gas Consumption for Power Gener

Midwest Natural Gas Market: NG Consumption for Power Generation

Source: Derived from Bentek Energy data 

0

20,00040,00060,00080,000

100,000120,000140,000160,000180,000

MMcf/month

2009-13 Range2014

32
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

Daily Texas Natural Gas Demand All Sectors

Texas Natural Gas Market: Daily Demand

Source: Derived from Bentek Energy data

02468

101214161820

Bcfd

2009-2013 Ran2014

33
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

Texas Natural Gas Consumption for Power Genera

Texas Natural Gas Market: NG Consumption for Power Generation

Source: Derived from Bentek Energy data 

0

50,000

100,000150,000200,000250,000

MMcf/month

2009-13 Range2014

34
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

Electricity MarketsCentral
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

MISO Real Time Prices—Two Year History 

Midwest Electricity Market: MISO Real Time Prices

-150-100

-50

0

50

100150200250300350

May-12

Jun-12

Jul-12

Aug-12

Sep-12

Oct-12

Nov-12

Dec-12

Jan-13

Feb-13

Mar-13

Apr-13

May-13

Jun-13

Jul-13

Aug-13

Sep-13

Oct-13

Nov-13

Dec-13

Jan-14

Weighted Daily Avg ($/MWh)

Prior YearYesterday's Indiana Hub Daily Avg Real Time Price was $33.12.Yesterday's Illinois Hub Daily Avg Real Time Price was $40.25.Yesterday's Michigan Hub Avg Real Time Price was $33.96.Yesterday's Minnesota Hub Daily Avg Real Time Price was $22.89.

Source: Genscape via Bloomberg

36
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

MISO System Daily Average Load —Two Year Histo

Midwest Electricity Markets Overview: MISO Average Daily Load

0

20406080

100120

May-12

Jun-12

Jul-12

Aug-12

Sep-12

Oct-12

Nov-12

Dec-12

Jan-13

Feb-13

Mar-13

Apr-13

May-13

Jun-13

Jul-13

Aug-13

Sep-13

Oct-13

Nov-13

Dec-13

Jan14

Weighted Daily Avg Load (GW)

Prior Year Yesterday's average on peak load was 87 GW. Yesterday's average off‐peak 

Source: Genscape via Bloomberg

37
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

MISO Indiana Hub Peak RT Futures

Midwest Electricity Markets Overview: MISO Indiana Hub Peak RT Futures

$0

$10$20$30$40$50$60$70

May-14

Aug-14

Nov-14

Feb-15

May-15

Aug-15

Nov-15

Feb-16

May-16

Aug-16

Nov-16

Feb-17

May-17

Aug-17

Nov-17

Feb-18

May-18

Aug-18

Futures Price ($/MWh)

Current open interest for next month is 651 contracts. Yesterday's forward curve range was $35 to $62.One week ago the forward curve range was $35 to $62. One month ago the forward curve range was $34 to $57.Six months ago the forward curve range was $33 to $48.

Source: NYMEX Clearpor

38
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

MISO East On-Peak Spark & Dark Spreads

Midwest Electricity Markets Overview: MISO East On-Peak Spark & Dark Spreads

‐300‐200‐100

0

100200300400500

Spark& Dark Spreads ($/MWh)

Yesterday's On‐Peak Spark Spread was $17.62 per MWh. Yesterday's On‐Peak Dark Spread was $3

-300-250-200-150-100

-50

0

May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-

Difference in Spreads ($/MWh)

Spark Spread minus Dark Spread, 5/7/13 to 5/7/14

NG more profitable. Coal more profitable. (Yesterday by $13.98 per MWh.)

Sources (all via Bloomberg): Electricity Price: 

Assumptions:Electricity Price = Indiana Hub On‐Peak DA

NG Price Point = Chicago City Gate Spot

NG Heat Rate = 7000 mmBtu/kWh

Coal Type = Illinois Basin Mid Sulfur

Coal Heat Content = 11800 Btu/lbCoal Heat Rate = 10000 mmBtu/kWh

39
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

MISO West On-Peak Spark & Dark Spreads

Midwest Electricity Markets Overview: MISO West On-Peak Spark & Dark Spreads

‐300‐250‐200‐150‐100

‐50

0

50

100150200

Spark& Dark Spreads ($/MWh)

Yesterday's On‐Peak Spark Spread was ‐$10.59 per MWh. Yesterday's On‐Peak Dark Spread was 

-300-250-200-150-100

-50

0

May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Ma

Difference in Spreads ($/MWh)

Spark Spread minus Dark Spread, 5/7/13 to 5/7/14

NG more profitable. Coal more profitable. (Yesterday by $26.08 per MWh.)

Assumptions:Electricity Price = MinnesotNG Price Point = Chicago Ci

NG Heat Rate = 7000 mmBtCoal Type = Powder River B

Coal Heat Content = 8800 B

Sources (all via Bloomberg): Electricity Pric

40
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

0

10000200003000040000500006000070000

Monthly Generation (GWh)

East North Central Regional Generation Mix,

Feb '12 to Mar '14

Coal Generation in Mar '14 waGas Generation in Mar '14 was Nuclear Generation in Mar '14 Othr Renew Generation in MaHydro Generation in Mar '14 wOil Generation in Mar '14 was 

Total Generation in Mar '14 wa

States: IL, IN, MI, OH, WI

41
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

0

5000

10000150002000025000300003500040000

Monthly Generation (GWh)

West North Central Regional Generation Mix,

Feb '12 to Mar '14

Coal Generation in Mar '14 was Gas Generation in Mar '14 was Othr Renew Generation in Mar Nuclear Generation in Mar '14 Hydro Generation in Mar '14 wOil Generation in Mar '14 was 5

Total Generation in Mar '14 wa

States: IA, KS, MN, MO, ND, NE, SD

42