### 2GG



## Residential Furnaces and Boilers 

# ENGINEERING ANALYSIS

Mark Kendall (kendall.mark@adlittle.com) Arthur D. Little, Inc. U.S. DOE Workshop on Standards 

### for Residential Furnaces and

Boilers July 17, 2001i
E n g in e erin g A nalysis Overview Th e En gineerin g Analysis defines the relationship between equi p ment c os t a nd e q ui pm ent efficiency for use in downstrea m analyses.

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Product Efficiency A' 0- C onsu mer Life-Cycle Cost M anufact u rer I mp a ct Employment Impact

IE n g in e erin g Analysis aracteristics DOE desires that the cost/efficiency relationships used in the an a lysis p o s sess ce rtain characteristics. ® Credible - based on acceptable estimation techniques - incorporates and reconciles available data from multiple sources ® Transparent - publicly accessible - protects proprietary information ® Specific - sufficient detail to reduce ambiguity or misinterpretation - a single set of cost-efficiency estimates - quantified uncertainties

® Timely - available prior to scheduled deadlines

2S o u rc e s Efficiency to

The re a re several potential sources of efficiency /pe ormance infor m ation, when app lie d to resi d ential furnaces and boilers. 

### Pri m a ry a dvantage ... d isadvantag e M anufacturers a n d Suppliers Testing/Ratin g Technica l Literature E ngineering E sti m ates S i m ulati o n M odeling P rototy p ing Direct source of performance data Detailed data is often the most sensitive V Objective and accessible Freely available
Efficient Flexible
Direct observation Can provide direct insight into performance of future equip m ent under more stringent standards Products are concentrated near only a few efficiency levels Inconsisent topical coverage Scope depends on personnel availability Limited so ftware availability Resource intensive V
V V V

3i E n g in e eri n g Analysis Sources Manufacturing cost Data S i m ilarl y , th ere a re several potential sources of manufacturin g cost d ata e ach w i th ad vantages and disadvantages. 

### P ri m a ry advantage ... d isa dva ntag e M 

### anufacturers and Suppliers Direct source of cost Detailed data is often and market info sensitive 

### Teardown Analysis/ E ngineerin g valuation Direct product observation Products concentrated near only a few efficiency levels 

### List Prices Readily accessible wholesale prices Indicates overall value, not efficiency-related cost P 

### ublic 

### to (e.g. C 

### ensu 

## s ) Freely available Highly aggregated Can provide direct insight into future costs under more stringent standards V
V

4E n g ineeri ng A nalysis Proposed Approach B a s e d th e D e p a rtm ent's past experience using approaches s u c h as th e sin O ptio n and Efficiency Level approach, we propose to c omb i ne d ata sources for thi s rulemaking. 

### ® Gather publicly available information ® Select representative sample of products for analysis ® Work with manufacturers to identify appropriate samples for teardown and to obtain design data for additional samples ® Conduct computer simulations and engineering estimates to supplement the teardown analysis ® Obtain reviews by stakeholders ® Reconcile results and characterize uncertainty Based on th eir a d va n ta g es an d di s advantages, are all these s te ps necess ary, or are ot h ers warranted?i E n g in e erin g Analysis Questi o ns Related to P roposed Approach D e p en d i ng o n wh ic h a p proac h we take, there are so m e questions to b e answ ered. 

### • What role should manufacturers and other stakeholders have in providing data and reviewing assumptions, methods and results? • How many teardowns should be conducted? Of which models? ® What simulation models or engineering estimates should be used? -F URNACE - condensing furnaces (e.g., CO DHX) boilers 

### ® If we draw on multiple sources of information, what guidelines should we use for reconciling them and integrating them into a single set of cost-efficiency data?

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