FERC’s Office of Market Oversight & Investigations Market Summary, Week of September 5 - 9, 2005 

Hurricane Market Summary, September 5 - 9, 2005 

 Improvements in Katrina-damaged natural gas production slowed this week. Gas prices fell slightly but stayed 

above pre-storm levels; most electric prices returned to ranges seen before the storm. 

Natural Gas 

 Difficulties in returning production to the MMS New Orleans district have slowed recovery. Shut-in volumes fell 

only to 3.8 Bcf/d today from 4.16 Bcf/d on Tuesday. Roughly 40% of Gulf gas production remains offline. This pattern 

of staged recovery is similar to Hurricane Ivan’s when shut-in volumes decreased by over 60% in the first week after 

landfall but by only another 24% in the following two weeks. The NYMEX October futures contract settled at 

$11.347/MMBtu, down $0.344 for the week but up $0.146 for the day and about 16% above pre-storm levels. 

Cumulative shut-in volumes and the price change caused by Katrina exceed those of Ivan by approximately 60%. 

 Eight gas processing plants remain offline. Three are known to be damaged, one is still being evaluated. Four 

others lack power. Dynegy said earlier reports that its 1.85 Bcf/d Yscloskey plant and 1.3 Bcf/d Venice plant might be 

down for three to six months were premature. 

Hurricane Ivan 

Land Fall 9/16/04

Shut-in Gas

Prompt Month

$0

$2

$4

$6

$8

$10

$12

$14

9/1/2004

9/23/2004

10/14/2004

11/4/2004

11/29/2004

12/20/2004

1/12/2005

2/3/2005

Prompt Month

0

2

4

6

8

10

Shut-in Gas (Bcf/d

Hurricane Katrina 

Lan Fall 8/29/2005

Shut-in Gas

Prompt Month

$0

$2

$4

$6

$8

$10

$12

$14

8/22/2005

8/25/2005

8/30/2005

9/2/2005

9/6/2005

9/9/2005

Prompt Month

0

2

4

6

8

10

Shut-in Gas (Bcf/

D

Cumulative Shut-in Ivan vs. Katrina 

0

20

40

60

80

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1011

Days Since Land Fall

Shut-in Gas

(Bcf)

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

Price Change

Katrina Cum. Shut-in Ivan Cum. Shut-in

Katrina Price Change Ivan Price Change

Daily Shut-in Ivan vs. Katrina

0

2

4

6

8

10

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

Days Since Land Fall

Shut-in Gas

(Bcf/d)

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

Price Change

Katrina Shut-in Ivan Shut-in

Katrina Price Change Ivan Price Change

Daily Gas Prices (Source: Bloomberg)

$3

$6

$9

$12

$15

Transco Zone 6

Henry Hub

Chicago City Gate

PG&E City Gate

El Paso

Kern River Opal

Transwestern

Katrina landfall 8/29

$0

8/19

8/20

8/21

8/22

8/23

8/24

8/25

8/26

8/27

8/28

8/29

8/30

8/31

9/1

9/2

9/3

9/4

9/5

9/6

9/7

9/8
FERC’s Office of Market Oversight & Investigations Market Summary, Week of September 5 - 9, 2005 

Electricity 

Southeastern Electric Prices (Platts)

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

$160

$180

8/19

8/21

8/23

8/25

8/27

8/29

8/31

9/2

9/4

9/6

9/8

$/MWh

Florida 2005

Entergy 2005

Southern 2005

Florida 2004

Southern 2004

Entergy 2004

Gulf Basin Storms 1852 - 2004, by week

0

3

6

9

12

15

18

5/31 

6/14 

6/28 

7/12 

7/26 

8/9

8/23

9/6

9/20 

10/4 

10/18

number of storms

in historical period

Tropical Storms

Category 1, 2

Category 3, 4, 5

Source: OMOI, based on NOAA and Caribbean Hurricane Network 

weeks

beginning

 The number of customers without power fell from 

984,000 on Monday to 664,000 Friday. Entergy and 

Mississippi Power predicted that most customers who were 

able to receive power would have it by Sunday, but complete 

repairs in New Orleans will take “months.” Repairs to the 

bulk power system were slower: None of Entergy or S

Company transmission (135 kV and higher) lines that were 

out of service Tuesday were back in service as of Thursday 

evening. 

Electric Customer Outages

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

8/26

8/27

8/28

8/29

8/30

8/31

9/1

9/2

9/3

9/4

9/5

9/6

9/7

9/8

9/9

Florida Gulf Coast

Source: Department of Energy

outhern 

Generation was adequate at week’s end. In Florida, 

concerns about fuel supply adequacy for electric 

generators abated. FRCC cancelled its generating 

capacity advisories and alerts. 

Electric Peak Hour Prices (Source: Friedwire and ICE)

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

$160

$180

$200

8/19 8/26 9/2 9/9

New York 

Day-ahead electricity prices were lower in most areas, 

with moderate weather in the East and Midwest. 

Prices were similar to those before Katrina, but were 

well above year-ago levels. 

SP15

ERCOT North

Cinergy

PJM West

Mass Hub

Mid Columbia

Entergy

Palo Verde

Prices in Florida fell but did not reach pre-storm 

levels. 

Weather records for the Gulf of Mexico basin show 

serious storms are possible for at least another 

three weeks. 

OMOI will discontinue daily hurricane reports after today 

and will issue occasional future reports as conditions 

warrant.