Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

OE ENERGY

MARKET SNAPSHOT

National – Data Through October 2016

Office of Enforcement

Federal Energy Regulatory Commission

November 2016
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

2016/2017 Winter Asse

2
Markets Cautiousl

Optimistic Nearing W

 Natural gas and power prices are likely to be higher than la Normal to above average temperatures are expected Normal residential and commercial natural gas demand are 

but lower power burn

 Falling production offset by plentiful storage with potential f

from Canada

 New pipelines will reduce regional price differences New England and Southern California present challenges Renewables are changing California ramping requirements Entrants are small to mid-size generators and renewable pr

are accompanied by new transmission projects

 Electric generation mix is changing 

3
*January - February 2017

^January - February 2016*Power Note: Prices in $/MWh. Peak financial swap prices.*Gas Note: Prices in $/MMBtu. Regional futures natural gas prices are the sum of the Henry Hub futures contract price plus the regional basis futures. Source: Derived from NYMEX and 

IntercontinentalExchange

P

o

w

e

r

G

a

s

Location 2016^ 2

Algonquin (New England) $9.69 

Transco Zone 6 non‐NY (Mid‐Atlantic) $6.21 

Chicago City‐Gates $2.62 

Transco Zone 6 NY (New York City) $9.29 

Dominion South (Marcellus) $1.97 

Southern California Border $2.85 

Henry Hub $2.77 

Massachussets Hub $89.28 

PJM Western Hub $50.56 $

Northwest (Mid‐C) $24.88 $

Southern California (SP‐15) $33.76 $

Futures Prices High

4
Forecasters 

Call for Broadly 

Normal Winter 

Temperatures

Source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration 

5
Gas Demand Likely 

Rebound in 2016-1

Sources: Derived from Bentek, EIA

‐

4

‐

2

0246

ResComm LNG Exports Indust

Bcfd Exports To Mexico Power Generation

6
Production Sees Firs

Decline of Shale Era

Sources: Derived 

from Bentek, EIA

7
Strong Storage Invent

Keep Market Well Sup

Sources: 

Derived from 

Bentek, EIA

012345

2010‐2011 2011‐2012 2012‐2013 2013‐2014 2014‐2015 2015‐201

Start Season (Nov) End Season 

Tcf

8
Canada and LNG Impo

Fill in Supply Gaps

Sources:Derived fromBentek, EIA

Winter

9
Pipeline Additions He

Ease Market Area Pric

Sources: Derived fromVelocity Suite, ABB

Enterprise Software andBentek, in MMcfd

10
NYC has Nation’s High

Winter Gas Prices ($/Mm

Source: Derived from

IntercontinentalExchange

11
Aliso Canyon Outag

Stresses California Ma

12
CAISO: Adapting to 

Widening “Duck” Cu

Sources: Derivedfrom Velocity Suite,ABB EnterpriseSoftware

13
Recent/Upcoming Develop

Power Plants & Transmi

Sources: Data derived from U.S. Electric Transmission Projects ©2016 The C Three Group LLC and map created using

Velocity Suite, ABB Enterprise Software; Note: Winter 2016‐2017 Expected In‐Service Transmission Projects

Number of 

Transmissio

120kV+ October 

>129-12

14
Historical Year-over-y

Electric Capacity Cha

Source: Derived from

Velocity Suite, ABB

Enterprise Software

15
Conclusion

 Supply and demand are balancing in the natural gas mar Prices in both power and natural gas have responded to 

rebalancing, but remain relatively low

 New pipeline connections have strengthened deliverabilit Gas storage leaves markets well supplied for winter The Northeast and Southern California may experience lo

challenges 

 Increased renewable generation requires flexible resourc

evening ramp in CAISO

 Transmission projects may help to relieve price divergenc Natural gas for electricity generation continues to increas

16
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov

National Slides

17
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov

18

NOAA November 2016 Through January 2017 Outl
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov

Pitts

burgh

Calgary

City Location

Chicago

N

Oklahoma

City

Los Dallas

Angeles

Sacra

mento Denver

Portland

Houston New 

Orleans 

Vancouver

This YearLast Year5 Year Average

Cumulative HDDs by City

Apr 2016– Oct 2016

Source: Bloomberg Weather (daily data summed quarterly)

Atla

Updated

19

906862885

82

25

886845928

225247315

4152

104

9

‐

35

1,4081,3801,312

1,1861,1851,123

828809784

769764886

205175228

558896

212
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov

Pitts

burgh

Calgary

City Location

Chicago

N

Oklahoma

City

Los Dallas

Angeles

Sacra

mento Denver

Portland

Houston New 

Orleans 

Vancouver

This YearLast Year5 Year Average

Cumulative CDDs by City

Apr 2016– Oct 2016

Source: Bloomberg Weather (daily data summed quarterly)

Atla

Updated

20

1,118

942848

3,2273,4693,061

1,4221,1201,136

2,1391,9842,197

3,1573,1473,135

3,3193,2103,038

258257

853848925

307651

524755528

1,2601,5661,335

1,2811,6321,257

2,1,81,7
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov

$ = Average 2016 Spot Price*% Decrease from 2015*Average On-Peak Day-Ahead from January to October

SPP Price is an average of the North and South Hubs 

Source: RTO/ISO and ICE Data

NP 15

Palo Verde

MidColumbia Indiana 

Hub

SPP

ERCOT

North

PJM West

SOCO

2016 Spot Power Prices ($/MW

$21.83

-4%

$30.60

-15%

$25.55

-9%

$33.13

-9%

$25.90

-5%

$26.84

-15%

$28.27

-12%

$34.88

-24%

21
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov

Columbia

TCO

AECO 

Pricing PointBOLD – This YearGreen – % increase from previous yearRed – % decrease from previous year

ChicagoCitygate

Tran

Z6-

NGPL

Tex-Okla

El Paso

Permian

SoCal 

Border

PG&E

Citygate

CIG

HSC Henry Hub

Spot Natural Gas Prices Average ($/M

Apr 2016 – Oct 2016

Source: ICE Updated

22

$1

‐24

$2.63

‐13%

$2.55

5%

$2.50

2%

$2.45

4% $2.33

3%

$2.52

5%

$1.57

‐16%

$2.28

3%

$2.76

1%

$2.47

3%
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov

Columbia

TCO

Pricing PointBOLD – This yearGreen – % increase from previous yearRed – % decrease from previous year

ChicagoCitygate

Tra

Z6

NGPL

Tex-Okla

El Paso

Permian

SoCal 

Border

PG&E

Citygate

CIG

HSC Henry Hub

F

Spot Average Natural Gas Trad

Volumes (MMBtus)

Apr 2016 – Oct 2016

Source: ICE Updated

23

70

‐1

1

28,000

14%

212,221

9%

371,498

‐21%

258,082

‐31%

222,467

‐13%

27,265

22%

32,633

‐25%

448,201

‐26%

261,201

‐15%
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

U.S. NG Supply and Demand 

Apr 2015 – Oct 2015 vs Apr 2016 – Oct 2016

National Natural Gas Market Overview: U.S. Supply and Consumption

Note: Balance includes all amounts not attributable to other categories.Source: Derived from Bentek Energy data

24

0

102030405060708090

100

2015 2016

Average Daily Volume (Bcfd)

US Natural Gas Supply

LNG Imports

Net Pipeline Imports

Net Dry Gas

Production

14.5%

4.4%

-0.4%

Total Change in Supply -0.4%

0

102030405060708090

100

2015 

Average Daily Volume (Bcfd)

US Natural Gas D

Power 

Generation

Total Change in Dema

Industrial

Residential/ 

Commercial
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

National Natural Gas Market Overview: Canadian Imports

Regional Imports from Canada

Source: Derived from Bentek Energy data

(2)

02468

10

Jan-11

May-11

Sep-11

Jan-12

May-12

Sep-12

Jan-13

May-13

Sep-13

Jan-14

May-14

Sep-14

Jan-15

May-15

Sep-15

Bcfd

Northwest NeMidwest Net INortheast Net 

25
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

Total U.S. Natural Gas Demand All Sectors

National Natural Gas Market Overview: Total US Gas Demand

Source: Derived from Bentek Energy data, derived from interstate pipeline flow and modeled data.

0

20406080

100120140160

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov De

Bcfd

2011-15 Range 2016

26
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

U.S. Natural Gas Consumption for Power Generat

National Natural Gas Market Overview: NG Consumption for Power Generation

Source: Derived from Bentek Energy data

0

5,000

10,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,00040,000

MMcfd

 2011 - 2015 Ran2016

27
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

EIA National Storage Inventories

National Natural Gas Market Overview: Natural Gas Storage Inventory

Source: Derived from Bloomberg Data

Notes:

0

500

1,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,500

Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb 

Storage (Bcf)

5 Year Range 2016-2017 2015-2

28
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

EIA Regional Storage Inventories

National Natural Gas Market Overview: Natural Gas Storage Inventory

Source: Derived from Bloomberg Data

Notes:

Up

29

0

200400600800

1,0001,200 EAST

0

500

1,0001,500 WEST

0

100200300

Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 

5 Year Range 2016‐2017 20

PRODUCING

0

100200300400500 PACIFIC

0

500

1,0001,500

SOUTH CEN
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

Monthly U.S. Dry Gas Production – Lower 48 Stat

National Natural Gas Market Overview: Monthly U.S. Dry Gas Production

Note: Prior to July 2010, chart was derived from a combination of EIA and Bentek Energy data

Source: Derived from Bentek Energy data

1020304050607080

Bcfd

Dry Production

30
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

Rigs by Type

National Natural Gas Market Overview: Rig Count by Type

Source: Derived from Bloomberg dataNotes:

0

200400600800

1,0001,2001,4001,6001,800

Oct‐14

Jan‐15

Apr‐15

Jul‐15

Oct‐15

Jan‐16

Apr‐16

Baker Hughes Rig Count (Rigs)

Oil Rigs Gas Rigs

31
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

Gas vs Coal

National Natural Gas Market Overview: Rig Count

Source: Derived from Bloomberg dataNotes:

$0$1$1$2$2$3$3$4$4$5$5

Oct‐14

Dec‐14

Feb‐15

Apr‐15

Jun‐15

Aug‐15

Oct‐15

Dec‐15

Feb‐16

Apr‐16

Jun‐16

Aug‐16

Gas and Converted Coal Price ($/MMBtu) Nymex Henry Hub Central App Coal WTI Crude Oil

32
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

Daily Gas Sendout from Existing U.S. LNG Facilit

National Natural Gas Market Overview: LNG Market-Daily Gas Sendout

Notes: Everett data includes flows onto the AGT and TGP interstate lines, plus estimates of flows to the Mystic 7 power plant, Keyspan Boston 

Gas, and LNG trucked out of the terminal. Excludes flows to the Freeport LNG which flows via intrastate pipelines and flows to the Mystic 8 and 9 power plants.Source: Derived from Bentek Energy data

33

0

500

1,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,5005,000

Daily LNG Sendout (MMcfd)

Sabine PassLake CharlesGolden PassFreeportNortheast GaExcelerateCameronElba IslandCove PointEverett (Gros

0

1,0002,0003,0004,000 Monthly Average
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

Source: Waterborne Energy, Inc. Data in $US/MMBtuNote: Includes information and Data supplied by IHS Global Inc. and its affiliates (“IHS”); Copyright (publication year) all rights reserved.

Landed prices are the monthly average of weekly trades from the prior month.

World LNG Estimated Landed Prices: Oct 20

National Natural Gas Market Overview: World LNG Landed Prices

Cove Point

$4.50

India

$11.55

UK

$8.75

Spain

$9.05

Belgium

$8.84

Korea

$12.40

Lake Charles

$3.96 Altamira $4.60

Cove Point

$4.40

India

$11.55

UK

$8.75

Spain

$9.15

Belgium

$8.99

Korea

$13.10

Lake Charles

$3.93 Altamira $4.57

Cove Point

$4.50

India

$11.55

UK

$8.75

Spain

$9.05

Belgium

$8.84

Korea

$12.40

Lake Charles

$3.96 Altamira $4.60

Cove Point

India

UK

Spain

Belgium

Korea

Lake Charles

Altamira

Rio de Janeiro

Bahia Blanca

Canaport

34

$3.29

$ 6.44 $ 

$ 6.4

$5.59

$3.06

$ 6.19

$ 4.35

$5.81

$ 6.05

$ 6.26

$ 6.30
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

Historical and Future World Gas Prices

National Natural Gas Market Overview: LNG Competitive Price Hubs

Source: Derived from Bloomberg data Notes:

$0$2$4$6$8

$10$12$14$16$18

Nov‐14

Jan‐15

Mar‐15

May‐15

Jul‐15

Sep‐15

Nov‐15

Jan‐16

Mar‐16

May‐16

Jul‐16

Sep‐16

Nov‐16

Jan‐17

Mar‐17

$/MMBtu

Henry Hub TZ6 NYAlgonquin Citygates UKNBPJapanese LNG Spot Price Futures Prices

35
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

National Natural Gas Market Overview: WTI vs Brent Oil Price

Source: Derived from Bloomberg data 

WTI vs Brent Crude Oil Price

$0

$10$20$30$40$50$60$70$80$90

$100

Oil Prices($/Barrel)

WTI Oil Price Brent Crude Oil Pric

36
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

National Natural Gas Market Overview: Nymex Futures Curve

Source: Derived from Bloomberg data 

Nymex Futures Curves

$0.00$0.50$1.00$1.50$2.00$2.50$3.00$3.50$4.00

Dec‐16

Feb‐17

Apr‐17

Jun‐17

Aug‐17

Oct‐17

Dec‐17

Feb‐18

Apr‐18

Jun‐18

Aug‐18

Oct‐18

D18

Nymex Futures Curves($/MMBtu) 10/31/2015 4/30/2016

9/30/2016 10/30/2016

37
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov

Infrastructure Report

38

Office of Energy Projects Energy 

Infrastructure Update

http://www.ferc.gov/legal/staff-reports.asp

(see “Energy Infrastructure” tab) 
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov

Natural Gas Highlights

Natural Gas Activities through September 30, 2016

January through September 30, 2015 

Status No. of Projects Storage Capacity (Bcf) Deliverability (MMcf/d) Capacity (MMcf/d) Miles of Pipeline Com

Pipeline 

Placed in Service 

through September 30, 2015 

2416 

4,609.35,505.7 

274.6203.5 

1212

Certificated 

through September 30, 2015 

4626 

14,382.5

7,541.0 

1,136.5

360.6 

1,2

24

Storage 

Placed in Service 

through September 30, 2015 

05 

0.0

11.4 

0

53 

4

Certificated 

through September 30, 2015 

02 

0.02.7 

00 

LNG (Import & Export) 

Placed in Service 

through September 30, 2015 

10 

00 

700

0 

Certificated (Import/Export) 

through September 30, 2015 

41 

10.2

0 

3,1811,400 

Natural Gas Activities in September 2016 

Status No. of Projects Storage Capacity (Bcf) Deliverability (MMcf/d) Capacity (MMcf/d) Miles of Pipeline Compres

(HP) 

Pipeline 

Placed in Service 6 1,345.0 85.5 36,00

Certificated 5 367.6 18.9 139,22

Proposed 2 0.0 23.2 0 

39
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov

Electric Generation Highli

September 2016 January – September 2016 Cumulative January – Septemb

Cumulative 

Primary Fuel Type No. of Units Installed Capacity (MW) No. of Units Installed Capacity (MW) No. of Units Insta

Capacit

Coal 0 0 3 45 2 6Natural Gas 14 364 77 7,371 57 5,4Nuclear 0 0 0 0 2 15Oil 0 0 5 12 15 2Water 0 0 27 228 21 15Wind 0 0 34 2,661 37 4,1Biomass 0 0 25 54 33 26Geothermal Steam 0 0 0 0 2 64 Solar 16 601 225 3,440 219 1,5Waste Heat 0 0 1 15 0 0 Other * 1 0 6 0 9 0 Total 31 965 403 13,826 397 11,7

Sources: Data derived from Velocity Suite, ABB Inc. and The C Three Group LLC which include plants with nameplate cof 1 MW or greater. The data may be subject to update. 

New Generation In-Service (New Build and Expansion) 

40
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov

Electric Transmission High

Transmission Projects Completed Proposed Transmission 

In-Service by Septemb

Voltage 

(kV) 

September 

2016 

September 

2015 

January – September 

2016 Cumulative 

January – December 

2015 Cumulative 

High Probability 

of Completion 

Line Length (miles) 

≤230 41.5 15.1 285.9 694.3 2,654.3 

345 36.0 82.0 199.4 1,230.5 2,208.9 500 0.0 0.0 43.0 355.0 925.3 

Total 

U.S. 77.5 97.1 528.3 2,279.8 5,788.5 

41
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov

Installed Generating Capaci

42

Installed Capacity (GW) % of Total Capacity 

Coal 293.73 24.99% 

Natural Gas 510.26 43.42% 

Nuclear 107.36 9.14% 

Oil 44.98 3.83% 

Water 100.35 8.54% 

Wind 76.66 6.52% 

Biomass 16.64 1.42% 

Geothermal Steam 3.88 0.33% 

Solar 19.39 1.65% 

Waste Heat 1.17 0.10% 

Other* 0.76 0.07% 

Total 1,175.20 100.00% 

Sources: Data derived from Velocity Suite, ABB Inc. and The C Three Group LLC which include pnameplate capacity of 1 MW or greater. The data may be subject to update. 

Total Available Installed Generating Capacity