Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

OE ENERGY

MARKET SNAPSHOT

National – Data Through September 201

Office of Enforcement

Federal Energy Regulatory Commission

October 2015
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

● 2015-16 Energy Mar

Winter Assessment

● National Slides● Infrastructure Report

2

Agenda
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov

2015-2016 Energy MarkWinter Assessment

3
Market Overview

 Stable signals

• Low NG & electric 

prices 

• Abundant NG 

production & storage

• Moderate weather in 

Midwest, Northwest & Northeast

• Robust fuel stockpiles—

heating & generation

 Challenges

• Low NG and o

counts

• Cold weather • Potential dem

increases from industrial & LNexports

• New England 

volatility
Source: Derived from 

ICE and Nymex data.*January and February 2016 ^January and February 2015*SP-15 2016*Power Note: Prices in $/MWh. Peak financial swap prices.*Gas Note: Prices in $/MMBtu. Regional futures natural gas prices are the sum of the Henry Hub futures contract price plus the regional basis futures. 

P

o

w

e

r

G

a

s

Location 2015^ 2

Algonquin (New England) $21.45 

Transco Zone 6 non‐NY (Mid‐Atlantic) $9.09 

Transco Zone 6 NY (New York City) 12.82 

Dominion South (Marcellus) $2.51 

Southern California Border $4.30 

Henry Hub $4.08 

Massachussets Hub $183.88 

PJM Western Hub $72.60 

Northwest (Mid‐C) $37.73 

Southern California (SP‐15) $46.13 

Futures Prices Dec
Source: NOAA National Weather Service

Winter Temps Warmer in North & Cooler in South
Source: EIA data & Staff analysis.

Natural Gas Storage Po

To Set a Record Enter

Winter

01234

Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ja

Storage Inventories (Tcf)

5 Year Inventory RaYear to Date InventHigh Inventory Scen
Source: EIA data & Staff analysis.

Winter NG Demand Proj

Lower than Previous W

0

20406080

100120

Sep‐13

Jan‐14

May‐14

Sep‐14

Jan‐15

May‐15

Sep‐15

Jan‐16

U.S. Natural Gas

Demand by Sector

(Bcfd)

RCEIV

Projecte
Natural Gas Production 

Record

Source: Bentek Energy.

0

1020304050607080

Jan‐10

Aug‐10

Mar‐11

Oct‐11

May‐12

Dec‐12

Jul‐13

Feb‐14

Sep‐14

Apr‐15

U.S. Natural Gas

Production (Bcfd)

MUEWPN
Source: Staff analysis.

Pipeline Projects Connect New Production to Markets

Natural Gas pipeline capacity additions in 2014 & 2015 (Bcfd)

2.0 
Winter Natural Gas Pri

Converge in Northea

Source: Staff analysis.

$0$5

$10$15$20

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 20

Composite Price

($/MMBtu)* North

Pro

*Regional composites are averages of January and February prices.
RTO/ISO Winter 

Preparations

 Gas electric coordination Seasonal modeling assessments Adequate reserve margins with load pockets Winterization testing Situational awareness
CAISO Winter Ra

Source: Derived from CAISO data via Ventyx
ISO-NE Relies o

Winter Fuel Divers

Source: Derived from Ventyx data
 SPP Expanded Membership with 

Integrated Systems

 NV Energy may join EIM NYISO increased reserve require

and scarcity prices

 SPP-MISO improve interregiona

coordinaton

Power Market 

Developments
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov

National Slides

16
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov

17

NOAA Nov 2015 Through Jan 2016 Outlook
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov

Pitts

burgh

Calgary

City Location

Chicago

N

Oklahoma

City

Los Dallas

Angeles

Sacra

mento Denver

Portland

Houston New 

Orleans 

Vancouver

This YearLast Year5 Year Average

Cumulative HDDs by City

July– September

Source: Bloomberg Weather (daily data summed quarterly)

Atla

Updated

18

001

000

5

4333

001

000

000

228258265

393043

9491

127

7059

123

00

11

009

000
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov

Pitts

burgh

Calgary

City Location

Chicago

N

Oklahoma

City

Los Dallas

Angeles

Sacra

mento Denver

Portland

Houston New 

Orleans 

Vancouver

This YearLast Year5 Year Average

Cumulative CDDs by City

July– September

Source: Bloomberg Weather (daily data summed quarterly)

Atla

Updated

19

525595682

1,6761,7561,840

788768898

1,3591,4231,654

1,7692,0032,093

1,7271,8301,879

683234

574797765

633550

491417343

953901807

755621598

1,11,11,3
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov

20

Spot Power Prices 

Average Monthly ($/MWh)
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov

Columbia

TCO

AECO 

Pricing PointBOLD – This YearGreen – % increase from previous yearRed – % decrease from previous year

ChicagoCitygate

Tran

Z6-

NGPL

Tex-Okla

El Paso

Permian

SoCal 

Border

PG&E

Citygate

CIG

HSC Henry Hub

Spot Natural Gas Prices 

Average ($/MMBtu)

July– September

Source: ICE Updated

21

$2.

‐17

$2.63

‐31%

$2.76

‐33%

$2.78

‐33%

$2.70

‐34% $2.62

‐34%

$2.74

‐34%

$2.22

‐43%

$2.56

‐35%

$3.15

‐33%

$2.79

‐35%
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov

Columbia

TCO

Pricing PointBOLD – This yearGreen – % increase from previous yearRed – % decrease from previous year

ChicagoCitygate

Tra

Z6

NGPL

Tex-Okla

El Paso

Permian

SoCal 

Border

PG&E

Citygate

CIG

HSC Henry Hub

F

Spot Average Natural Gas Trad

Volumes (MMBtus)

July– September

Source: ICE Updated

22

8

12

27,843

138%

208,877

33%

419,667

103%

338,386

9%

240,476

‐7%

19,497

‐77%

40,103

13%

580,029

14%

317,611

‐31%
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

U.S. NG Supply and Demand Year to Date – Sep 2015 vs

National Natural Gas Market Overview: U.S. Supply and Consumption

Note: Balance includes all amounts not attributable to other categories.Source: Derived from Bentek Energy data 

0

102030405060708090

100

2014 2015

Average Daily Volume (Bcfd)

US Natural Gas Supply

0

102030405060708090

100

2014 

Average Daily Volume (Bcfd)

US Natural Gas D

Total Change in Demand

Power 

Generation

Net Dry Gas

Production

Net Pipeline

Imports

5.6%

6.0%

8.2%

5.6%

LNG Imports

Industrial

Total Change in Supply 4

Residential/ 

Commercial

23
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

National Natural Gas Market Overview: Canadian Imports

Regional Imports from Canada

Source: Derived from Bentek Energy data 

(2)

02468

1012

Bcfd

Northwest NeMidwest Net INortheast Net 

24
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

Total U.S. Natural Gas Demand All Sectors

National Natural Gas Market Overview: Total US Gas Demand

Source: Derived from Bentek Energy data, derived from interstate pipeline flow and modeled data. 

0

20406080

100120140160

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov De

Bcfd

2009-2014 Range 2015

25
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

U.S. Natural Gas Consumption for Power Generat

National Natural Gas Market Overview: NG Consumption for Power Generation

Source: Derived from Bentek Energy data 

0

5,000

10,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,00040,000

MMcfd

2010-14 Range2015

26
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

EIA National Storage Inventories by Region

National Natural Gas Market Overview: Natural Gas Storage Inventory

Source: Derived from Bloomberg Data

Notes:

0

500

1,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,500

U.S Storage Levels (Bcf)

East Storage LevelWest Storage LevelProduction Area Storage Level5 Year Average

27
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

EIA National Storage Inventories

National Natural Gas Market Overview: Natural Gas Storage Inventory

Source: Derived from Bloomberg Data

Notes:

0

500

1,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,500

Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb 

Storage (Bcf)

5 Year Range 2014-2015 2015-2

28
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

EIA Regional Storage Inventories

National Natural Gas Market Overview: Natural Gas Storage Inventory

Source: Derived from Bloomberg Data

Notes:

29

0

500

1,0001,5002,0002,500

EAST

0

100200300400500600 WEST

0

500

1,0001,500

Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 

5 Year Range 2014‐2015 20

PRODUCING
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

Monthly U.S. Dry Gas Production – Lower 48 Stat

National Natural Gas Market Overview: Monthly U.S. Dry Gas Production

Note: Prior to July 2010, chart was derived from a combination of EIA and Bentek Energy data

Source: Derived from Bentek Energy data 

2468

1012

Bcfd

Dry Production

30
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

Rigs by Type

National Natural Gas Market Overview: Rig Count by Type

Source: Derived from Bloomberg dataNotes:

0

200400600800

1,0001,2001,4001,6001,800

Oct‐11

Jan‐12

Apr‐12

Jul‐12

Oct‐12

Jan‐13

Apr‐13

Jul‐13

Oct‐13

Jan‐14

Apr‐14

Jul‐14

Oct‐14

J15

Baker Hughes Rig Count (Rigs)

Oil Rigs Gas Rigs

31
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

Gas vs Coal

National Natural Gas Market Overview: Rig Count

Source: Derived from Bloomberg dataNotes:

$0$1$2$3$4$5$6$7

Oct‐13

Dec‐13

Feb‐14

Apr‐14

Jun‐14

Aug‐14

Oct‐14

Dec‐14

Feb‐15

Apr‐15

Jun‐15

Aug‐15

Gas and Converted Coal Price ($/MMBtu) Nymex Henry Hub Central App Coal WTI Crude Oil

32
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

Daily Gas Sendout from Existing U.S. LNG Facilit

National Natural Gas Market Overview: LNG Market-Daily Gas Sendout

Notes: Everett data includes flows onto the AGT and TGP interstate lines, plus estimates of flows to the Mystic 7 power plant, Keyspan Boston 

Gas, and LNG trucked out of the terminal. Excludes flows to the Freeport LNG which flows via intrastate pipelines and flows to the Mystic 8 and 9 power plants.Source: Derived from Bentek Energy data 

33

0

500

1,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,5005,000

Daily LNG Sendout (MMcfd)

Sabine PassLake CharlesGolden PassFreeportNortheast GaExcelerateCameronElba IslandCove PointEverett (Gros

-1,000

0

1,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,000 Monthly Average
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

Source: Waterborne Energy, Inc. Data in $US/MMBtuNote: Includes information and Data supplied by IHS Global Inc. and its affiliates (“IHS”); Copyright (publication year) all rights reserved.

Landed prices are the monthly average of weekly trades from the prior month.

World LNG Estimated October 2015 Landed 

Updated 

National Natural Gas Market Overview: World LNG Landed Prices

Cove Point

$4.50

India

$11.55

UK

$8.75

Spain

$9.05

Belgium

$8.84

Korea

$12.40

Lake Charles

$3.96 Altamira $4.60

Cove Point

$4.40

India

$11.55

UK

$8.75

Spain

$9.15

Belgium

$8.99

Korea

$13.10

Lake Charles

$3.93 Altamira $4.57

Cove Point

$4.50

India

$11.55

UK

$8.75

Spain

$9.05

Belgium

$8.84

Korea

$12.40

Lake Charles

$3.96 Altamira $4.60

Cove Point

India

UK

Spain

Belgium

Korea

Lake Charles

Altamira

Rio de Janeiro

Bahia Blanca

Canaport

C

34

$ 7.55

$ 7.62

$ 6.55

$ 3.39

$2.25

$ 7.20 $ 

$ 7.25 $6.41

$ 7.59

$6.30

$2.41
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

Historical and Future World Gas Prices

National Natural Gas Market Overview: LNG Competitive Price Hubs

Source: Derived from Bloomberg data Notes:

$0$5

$10$15$20$25

Oct‐13

Dec‐13

Feb‐14

Apr‐14

Jun‐14

Aug‐14

Oct‐14

Dec‐14

Feb‐15

Apr‐15

Jun‐15

Aug‐15

Oct‐15

Dec‐15

Feb‐16

A16

$/MMBtu

Henry Hub TZ6 NYAlgonquin Citygates UKNBPJapanese LNG Spot Price Futures Prices

35
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

National Natural Gas Market Overview: WTI vs Brent Oil Price

Source: Derived from Bloomberg data 

WTI vs Brent Crude Oil Price

$0

$20$40$60$80

$100$120$140

Oil Prices($/Barrel)

WtI Oil Price Brent Crude Oil Pric

36
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

National Natural Gas Market Overview: Nymex Futures Curve

Source: Derived from Bloomberg data 

Nymex Futures Curves

$0.00$0.50$1.00$1.50$2.00$2.50$3.00$3.50$4.00$4.50$5.00

Nov‐15

Jan‐16

Mar‐16

May‐16

Jul‐16

Sep‐16

Nov‐16

Jan‐17

Mar‐17

May‐17

Jul‐17

Sep‐17

Nov17

Nymex Futures Curves($/MMBtu) 10/13/2014 4/14/2015

9/14/2015 10/15/2015

37
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov

Infrastructure Report

38
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov

Natural Gas Activities in September 2015

Status No. of Projects Storage Capacity (Bcf) Deliverability (MMcf/d) Capacity (MMcf/d) Miles of Pipeline 

Pipeline 

Placed in Service 0 0.0 0.0 

Certificated 2 830.0 34.1 

Proposed 10 10,230.3 1,244.3 

Storage 

Placed in Service 2 8.0 0.0 

Certificated 0 0.0 0.0 

Proposed 1 0.0 15.0 

LNG (Import & Export) 

Placed in Service 0 0 0 

Certificated 

(Import/Export) 0 0 0 

Proposed (Export) 2 11.6 2,825 

Natural Gas Highlights
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov

September 2015 January – September 2015 Cumulative January – 

C

Primary Fuel Type No. of Units Installed Capacity (MW) No. of Units Installed Capacity (MW) No. of Units Coal 0 0 1 3 1 Natural Gas 2 346 34 2,884 51 Nuclear 0 0 0 0 10 Oil 0 0 6 9 18 Water 0 0 18 27 13 Wind 3 448 26 2,966 37 Biomass 2 4 16 205 58 Geothermal Steam 0 0 1 45 7 Solar 6 20 142 1,137 258 Waste Heat 0 0 0 0 2 Other 0 0 6 0 8 Total 13 817 250 7,276 463 

New Generation In-Service (New Build and Expans

Electric Generation Highli
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov

Transmission Projects Completed Proposed Tran

In-Service by 

Voltage 

(kV) 

September 

2015 

September 

2014 

January – September 

2015 Cumulative 

January – December 

2014 Cumulative 

High Probabi

of Completio

Line Length (miles) 

≤230 0.0 0.0 153.4 1,218.5 2,947.3 

345 82.0 202.0 808.7 1,659.8 2,416.8 500 0.0 0.0 256.0 70.0 950.9 

Total 

U.S. 82.0 202.0 1,218.1 2,948.3 6,315.0 

Transmission Projects with a High Probability of 

being completed by September 2017 New Transmission Projects b

Electric Transmission High
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov

Office of Energy Projects Energy Infrastructure U

http://www.ferc.gov/legal/staff-reports.asp

(see “Energy Infrastructure” tab) 

Infrastructure Report

42