HAM INST of STAND A TECH R.l C

A111D3 6121D5

NISTIR 85-3273-7

(Rev. 10/92)

Energy Prices and Discount Factors

for Life-Cycle Cost Analysis 1 993

Annual Supplement to Barbara C. Lippiatt

NIST Handbook 135 and

NBS Special Publication 709

U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

Technology Administration —lational Institute of Standards

nd Technology

-QC

100

. U56 repared for nited States Department of Energy

od - d /./ J

-

/

ederal Energy Management Program

1992.

ctober 1992

NISTIR 85-3273-7

(Rev. 10/92)

ENERGY PRICES AND DISCOUNT FACTORS

FOR LIFE-CYCLE COST ANALYSIS 1993

Annual Supplement to

NIST Handbook 135 and

NBS Special Publication 709

Data for the Federal Methodology for Life-Cycle Cost Analysis, Title 10, CFR, Part 436, Subpart A; and for the Energy Conservation Mandatory Performance Standards for New

Federal Residential Buildings, Tiitle 10, CFR, Part 435

Barbara C. Lippiatt

Computing and Applied Mathematics Laboratory

Office of Applied Economics

Gaithersburg, MD 20899

October 1 992

Prepared for: U.S. Department of Energy

Office of the Assistant Secretary for

Conservation and Renewable Energy

Federal Energy Management Program

Washington, DC 20585

U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE, Barbara Hackman Franklin, Secretary

Technology Administration, Robert M. White, Under Secretary for Technology

National Institute of Standards and Technology, John W. Lyons, Director

PREFACE

This is the 1993 edition of energy prices and discount factors for life-cycle cost analysis as established by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) in Subpart A of Part 436 of Title 10 of the

Code of Federal Regulations (10 CFR Part 436, Subpart A), and amplified in the Life-Cvcle Costing

Manual for the Federal Energy Management Program (NIST Handbook 135). The data are provided

as an aid to implementing life-cycle cost evaluations of potential energy conservation and renewable

energy investments in existing and new federally owned and leased buildings.

The life-cycle costing methods and procedures as set forth in 10 CFR, Part 436, Subpart A, are to be followed by all Federal agencies, unless specifically exempted, in evaluating the cost effectiveness

of potential energy conservation and renewable energy investments in federally owned and leased

buildings.

As called for by legislation, the National Institute of Standards and Technology has provided

technical assistance to the U.S. Department of Energy in the development and implementation of life- cycle costing methods and procedures. This is the second of a three-volume set which together

provide the methods, data, and computational tools for life-cycle cost analysis of Federal energy

projects.

Included in the three-volume set for Federal life-cycle cost analysis are the following:

(1) Life-Cvcle Costing Manual for the Federal Energy Management Program. National Institute

of Standards and Technology, Handbook 135 (revised 1993).

The manual is a guide to understanding life-cycle costing and related methods of economic analysis

as they are applied to Federal decisions. It describes the required procedures and assumptions,

defines and explains how to apply and interpret economic performance measures, gives examples of

Federal decision problems and their solutions, explains how to use the energy price indices and

discount factors which are updated annually in the supplement, and provides worksheets and other

computational aids and instructions for calculating the required measures.

(2) Energy Prices and Discount Factors for Life-Cvcle Cost Analysis . National Institute of

Standards and Technology, NISTIR 85-3273 (updated annually).

This report, which is updated annually, gives the energy price and discount factor multipliers needed

to estimate the present value of energy and other future costs. The data are based on energy price

projections developed by the Energy Information Administration of the U.S. Department of Energy.

Request the latest edition when ordering.

(3) NIST "Building Life Cycle Cost" fBLCO Computer Program (version 3.2), National

Institute of Standards and Technology, NISTIR 4481 (January 1991).

The NIST BLCC program, version 3.2, supersedes and incorporates both the Federal Buildings LifeCycle Cost (FBLCC) and National Bureau of Standards Life-Cycle Cost (NBSLCC) programs. NIST

BLCC is designed to run on IBM PC and compatible microcomputers with approximately 512 K of

iii
random access memory (RAM). It can be used to calculate the LCC of capital investments in

buildings and building systems which are intended to reduce future operating, maintenance, and

energy costs. BLCC computes the LCC for each alternative, compares alternatives in order to determine which has the lowest LCC, performs cash flow analyses, and then computes the net savings, savings-to-investment ratio (SIR), and adjusted internal rate of return (AIRR) over the

designated study period. BLCC can be used to perform economic analysis of Federal and of private

sector projects. BLCC version 3.2 uses the 1993 energy price data in NISTIR 85-3273-7. BLCC

in its application to Federal energy conservation and renewable energy projects is consistent with

NIST Handbook 135 (see tt\ above). In its application to non-energy projects, BLCC is consistent

with OMB Circular A-94. In its application to private-sector and non-Federal public-sector projects,

BLCC is consistent with ASTM standards for building economics. BLCC is integrated with the DOE

ASEAM computer program which performs energy conservation analysis.

Included on the BLCC disk is a stand-alone program called DISCOUNT version 3.2 which can

calculate present value, future value, and annual value factors for any discount rate and study period.

DISCOUNT can access the DOE energy price projections included on the BLCC disk to compute

the UPW* factors needed for Federal LCC analyses of energy projects, consistent with the factors

included in this report.

The three-volume set can also be used to perform economic evaluations of Federal building projects

which are not primarily for conserving energy or providing renewable energy but which have an energy cost component. Handbook 135 explains both applications.

The U.S. Department of Energy was directed by legislation and executive order to make available

to the private sector the methods, procedures, and related aids developed for Federal use. In response to this directive, the National Institute of Standards and Technology, under sponsorship by

the U.S. Department of Energy, published a life-cycle costing book for use by the private sector

entitled Comprehensive Guide for Least-Cost Energy Decisions . NBS SP 709 (January 1987). The

private sector guide is supported by the data provided here, as well as by the BLCC computer

program. The BLCC program (version 3.2) supersedes the NBSLCC program which is documented

in SP 709. BLCC provides LCC computational support for private sector projects as well as for

Federal projects.

To order any of the printed publications contact:

Advanced Sciences, Inc. 2000 North 15th Street Suite 407

Arlington, VA 22201

Telephone (703) 243-4900

Please request the publications by name and number.

IV
To order BLCC for analyses of Federal buildings, contact the above address. Other users may order

BLCC from one of the following:

National Technical Information Service

5285 Port Royal Road

Springfield, VA 22161

Telephone (703) 487-4650

(ask for disk PB91-507970)

PC Software Interest Group

1030D East Duane Avenue

Sunnyvale, CA 94086

Telephone (408) 730-9291

(ask for disk #0572)

MTS Software

5 Oak Forest Court

Saint Charles, MO 63303

(314) 441-1022

Workshops on the life-cycle costing method and energy analysis are conducted at locations around

the country each year. The workshops include training and software for both BLCC and an energy

analysis computer program called "A Simplified Energy Analysis Method" (ASEAM). A schedule

of workshops can be obtained from the Office of Applied Economics, National Institute of Standards

and Technology, Bldg. 101, Rm. A415, Gaithersburg, MD 20899, Telephone (301) 975-6132.

Two video training films, "Introduction to Life-Cycle Costing" and "Uncertainty and Risk," are also

available. These are two in a series of films on "Least-Cost Energy Decisions for Buildings."

Additional video training films in the series are in preparation. The video films and companion

workbooks can be ordered from Video Transfer, Inc., 5709-B Arundel Avenue, Rockville, MD

20852, Tel (301) 881-0270.

Further information on the Federal Energy Management Program can be obtained from the Federal

Energy Management Program Staff, Office of the Assistant Secretary for Conservation and

Renewable Energy, U.S. Department of Energy. Please direct communication to: FEMP, CE 10. 1

,

U.S. Department of Energy, 1000 Independence Avenue, SW, Washington, D.C. 20585.

v
NOTICE

Please note that Federal Methodology for Life-Cycle Cost Analysis, Title 10, CFR, Part 436,

Subpart A has been revised to incorporate changes required by the Federal Energy Management

Improvement Act of 1988 (P.L. 100-615), and to reflect 10-years experience with the Federal LCC

Rule.

The principal change is a discount rate set annually by DOE. The rate for 1993 is equivalent to a market rate of 7.9% and is based on long-term Treasury bond rates averaged over the previous 12

months. The market rate is converted to a "real" discount rate of 4.0%, exclusive of the

Administration’s assumed rate of general price inflation, to correspond with the constant-dollar

analysis approach that is used. The results are identical to those that would be obtained by using the

7.9% market rate as the discount rate and inflating all cash flows at the Administration’s assumed

rate of inflation. (For further discussion of changes in the Federal life-cycle costing rule see Notice

of Final Rulemaking, Federal Register . October 31, 1990. For a more detailed description of how

the Federal discount rate is determined, see NIST Handbook 135 (revised 1993).)

The SPW, UPW, and UPW* factors in Part I of this report are given both for the 4.0% discount rate and for a 10% discount rate. The former are for evaluating Federal energy conservation and

renewable energy projects. The latter are for evaluating Federal projects subject to OMB Circular

A-94, i.e., most Federal capital investment projects other than energy projects and water-resources

projects.

An additional change in the Federal methodology that affects the data in this report is the allowance

in the analysis of a planning/design/construction period prior to building occupancy. The text that accompanies the "B" series of tables explains how to use the UPW* factors to account for a planning/design/construction period

.

vi
ABSTRACT

This is the 1993 annual edition of energy prices and discount factors for performing life-cycle cost analyses of energy conservation and renewable energy projects. It supports the Federal life-cycle

costing methodology by updating the energy price projections and discount factors that are described,

explained, and illustrated in NIST Handbook 135 (HB 135). It supports private-sector life-cycle cost

analysis by updating the energy price indices that are described, explained, and illustrated in NBS

Special Publication 709 (SP 709). It also supports the Energy Conservation Mandatory Performance

Standards for New Federal Residential Buildings (10 CFR 435) by providing a table of factors for

updating appliance label values.

Vll
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

The authors wish to thank Mr. K. Dean DeVine of the Federal Energy Management Program of the

U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) for his continued support and direction of this work.

Appreciation is extended to Mr. Mark E. Rodekohr, Director of the Energy Demand and Integration

Division of the DOE Energy Information Administration, for providing the energy price projections

upon which this report is based. Also deserving thanks are Mr. Stephen R. Petersen and Mr. Jed

G. Cohen of the Office of Applied Economics of NIST for their assistance in preparing this report.
CONTENTS

Page

PREFACE iii

NOTICE vi

ABSTRACT vii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS viii

CONTENTS ix

LIST OF TABLES x

ABBREVIATIONS xiv

PART I: TABLES FOR FEDERAL LIFE-CYCLE COST ANALYSIS 1

Single Present Worth and Uniform Present Worth discount factors 1

Modified Uniform Present Worth discount factors for Federal use 5

Projected average fuel price indices and escalation rates for Federal use 18

Factors for updating appliance label values 35

PART II: TABLES FOR PRIVATE SECTOR LIFE-CYCLE COST ANALYSIS 36

Projected average fuel price indices for private sector use 36

ix
LIST OF TABLES

A-l.

A-2.

B-la.

B-2a.

B-3a.

B-4a.

B-5a.

B-lb.

B-2b.

Page

SPW factors for finding the present value of future nonfuel, nonannually recurring

amounts 3

UPW factors for finding the present value of future nonfuel, annually recurring

amounts 4

UPW* discount factors adjusted for average fuel price escalation, by end-use sector and

major fuel. Discount rate = 4.0 percent. Census Region 1 (Connecticut, Maine,

Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island,

Vermont) 8

UPW’ discount factors adjusted for average fuel price escalation, by end-use sector and

major fuel. Discount rate = 4.0 percent. Census Region 2 (Illinois, Indiana, Iowa,

Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, South Dakota,

Wisconsin) 9

UPW’ discount factors adjusted for average fuel price escalation, by end-use sector and

major fuel. Discount rate = 4.0 percent. Census Region 3 (Alabama, Arkansas,

Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland,

Mississippi, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia,

West Virginia) 10

UPW* discount factors adjusted for average fuel price escalation, by end-use sector and

major fuel. Discount rate = 4.0 percent. Census Region 4 (Alaska, Arizona,

California, Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Utah,

Washington, Wyoming) 11

UPW* discount factors adjusted for average fuel price escalation, by end-use sector and

major fuel. Discount rate = 4.0 percent. United States average 12

UPW* discount factors adjusted for average fuel price escalation, by end-use sector and

major fuel. Discount rate = 10 percent. Census Region 1 (Connecticut, Maine,

Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island,

Vermont) 13

UPW* discount factors adjusted for average fuel price escalation, by end-use sector and

major fuel. Discount rate = 10 percent. Census Region 2 (Illinois, Indiana, Iowa,

Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, South Dakota,

Wisconsin) 14

x
LIST OF TABLES (continued)

Page

B-3b. UPW* discount factors adjusted for average fuel price escalation, by end-use sector and

major fuel. Discount rate = 10 percent. Census Region 3 (Alabama, Arkansas,

Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland,

Mississippi, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia,

West Virginia) 15

B-4b. UPW* discount factors adjusted for average fuel price escalation, by end-use sector and

major fuel. Discount rate = 10 percent. Census Region 4 (Alaska, Arizona, California,

Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Utah, Washington,

Wyoming) 16

B-5b. UPW* discount factors adjusted for average fuel price escalation, by end-use sector and

major fuel. Discount rate = 10 percent. United States average 17

Ca-1. Projected average fuel price indices tied to the value of the dollar in 1992, by end-use

sector and major fuel. Census Region 1 (Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New

Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont) ... 20

Ca-2. Projected average fuel price indices tied to the value of the dollar in 1992, by end-use

sector and major fuel. Census Region 2 (Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan,

Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, South Dakota, Wisconsin) . 22

Ca-3. Projected average fuel price indices tied to the value of the dollar in 1992, by end-use

sector and major fuel. Census Region 3 (Alabama, Arkansas, Delaware, District of

Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Mississippi, North

Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, West Virginia) 24

Ca-4. Projected average fuel price indices tied to the value of the dollar in 1992, by end-use

sector and major fuel. Census Region 4 (Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado,

Hawaii, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Utah, Washington,

Wyoming) 26

Ca-5. Projected average fuel price indices tied to the value of the dollar in 1992, by end-use

sector and major fuel. United States average 28

Cb-1. Projected average fuel price escalation rates exclusive of general price inflation, by end- use sector and major fuel (percentage change compounded annually). Census Region 1 (Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York,

Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont) 30

xi
LIST OF TABLES (continued)

Cb-2.

Cb-3.

Cb-4.

Cb-5.

D.

S-l.

S-2.

S-3.

Page

Projected average fuel price escalation rates exclusive of general price inflation, by end- use sector and major fuel (percentage change compounded annually). Census Region 2

(Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North

Dakota, Ohio, South Dakota, Wisconsin) 31

Projected average fuel price escalation rates exclusive of general price inflation, by end- use sector and major fuel (percentage change compounded annually). Census Region 3

(Alabama, Arkansas, Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky,

Louisiana, Maryland, Mississippi, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina,

Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, West Virginia) 32

Projected average fuel price escalation rates exclusive of general price inflation, by end- use sector and major fuel (percentage change compounded annually). Census Region 4

(Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico,

Oregon, Utah, Washington, Wyoming) 33

Projected average fuel price escalation rates exclusive of general price inflation, by end- use sector and major fuel (percentage change compounded annually). United States average 34

Factors for updating appliance label values 35

Projected average fuel price indices with assumed general price inflation rates of 0, 2.5,

5, and 7.5 percent, by end-use sector and major fuel. Census Region 1 (Connecticut,

Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode

Island, Vermont) 38

Projected average fuel price indices with assumed general price inflation rates of 0, 2.5,

5, and 7.5 percent, by end-use sector and major fuel. Census Region 2 (Illinois,

Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, South

Dakota, Wisconsin) 40

Projected average fuel price indices with assumed general price inflation rates of 0, 2.5,

5, and 7.5 percent, by end-use sector and major fuel. Census Region 3 (Alabama,

Arkansas, Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana,

Maryland, Mississippi, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas,

Virginia, West Virginia) 42

xii
LIST OF TABLES (continued)

Page

S-4. Projected average fuel price indices with assumed general price inflation rates of 0, 2.5,

5, and 7.5 percent, by end-use sector and major fuel. Census Region 4 (Alaska,

Arizona, California, Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon,

Utah, Washington, Wyoming) 44

S-5. Projected average fuel price indices with assumed general price inflation rates of 0, 2.5,

5, and 7.5 percent, by end-use sector and major fuel. United States average ... 46
ABBREVIATIONS

N Number of Discount Periods (in Years)

ELEC Electricity

DIST Distillate Oil

LPG Liquefied Petroleum Gas

NTGAS - Natural Gas

RESID Residual Oil

COAL Steam Coal

GASLNE - Gasoline

xiv
PART I: TABLES FOR FEDERAL LIFE-CYCLE COST ANALYSIS

Single Present Worth and Uniform Present Worth discount factors

Table A-l presents the single present worth (SPW) factors for finding the present value of future

nonfuel, nonannually recurring amounts, such as repair and replacement costs and salvage values.

The formula for finding the present value (P) of a future amount (F) is the following:

1 P = F x = F x SPWN , (l+d)N

where d = discount rate; and

N = number of periods, such as years, until F occurs.

Table A-2 presents uniform present worth (UPW) factors for finding the present value of future

nonfuel amounts recurring annually, such as routine maintenance costs. The formula for finding the

present value (P) of an annually recurring uniform amount (A) is the following:

(l+d)N -1 P = A x = A x UPWN , d(l+d)N

where N = number of periods, such as years, over which A recurs.

In tables A-l and A-2 the factors are given for both 4.0 percent and 10 percent discount rates. The

factors based on 4.0 percent are for finding the present value of future amounts associated with

Federal energy conservation and renewable energy projects. The factors based on 10 percent are

for finding the present value of future amounts associated with most other Federal projects (except

those specifically exempted from the 10 percent rate). Both the 4.0 and 10 percent rates are defined

for Federal use to be "real" rates exclusive of general price inflation. The factors are applied as multipliers to future amounts which are stated in "constant" dollars, that is, exclusive of general price

inflation.

Examples of How to Use the Factors:

SPW(4.0%): To compute the present value of a replacement cost expected to occur in the 8th year

for an energy efficient heating system, go to table A-l, find the 4.0 percent SPW factor for year 8

(0.73), and multiply the factor by today’s replacement cost. "Today’s" replacement cost is the cost

as of the date of analysis.

SPW(10%): To compute the present value of a repair cost in the 5th year for a floor covering (nonenergy related), go to table A-l, find the 10 percent SPW factor for year 5 (0.62), and multiply the

factor by today’s repair cost.

1
UPW(4.0%): To compute the present value of an annually recurring maintenance cost for a renewable energy system over 20 years, go to table A-2, find the 4.0 percent UPW factor for 20

years (13.59), and multiply the factor by the annual maintenance cost stated in today’s dollars.

UPW(10%): To compute the present value of annually recurring costs of office cleaning over 30

years (for a project not primarily related to energy conservation), go to table A-2, find the 10 percent

UPW factor for 30 years (9.43), and multiply the factor by the annual cleaning cost stated in today’s

dollars.

For further explanation and illustration of how to use these factors, see NIST Handbook 135.

2
Table A-1 . SPW factors for finding the present value of

future nonfuel, nonannually recurring amounts

Number of Years

Until Future Amount

Occurs (N)

FEMP LCC Approach

SPW Factor

(d = 4.0%)

OMB A-94 LCC Approach

SPW Factor

(d = 10%)

1 0.96 0.91

2 0.92 0.83

3 0.89 0.75

4 0.85 0.68

5 0.82 0.62

6 0.79 0.56

7 0.76 0.51

8 0.73 0.47

9 0.70 0.42

10 0.68 0.39

11 0.65 0.35

12 0.62 0.32

13 0.60 0.29

14 0.58 0.26

15 0.56 0.24

16 0.53 0.22

17 0.51 0.20

18 0.49 0.18

19 0.47 0.16

20 0,46 0.15

21 0.44 0.14

22 0.42 0.12

23 0.41 0.11

24 0.39 0.10

25 0.38 0.09

26* 0.36 0.08

CM 0.35 0.08

28* 0.33 0.07

« CM CD 0.32 0.06

30* 0.31 0.06

*SPW factors are reported for FEMP LCC Approach for years 26-30

to accommodate a planning/construction period of up to 5 years.

3
Table A-2. UPW factors for finding the present value of

future nonfuel, annually recurring amounts

Number of Years

Over Which Amount

Recurs (N)

FEMP LCC Approach

UPW Factor

(d = 4.0%)

OMB A-94 LCC Approach

UPW Factor

(d = 10%)

1 0.96 0.91

2 1.89 1.74

3 2.78 2.49

4 3.63 3.17

5 4.45 3.79

6 5.24 4.36

7 6.00 4.87

8 6.73 5.33

9 7.44 5.76

10 8.11 6.14

11 8.76 6.50

12 9.39 6.81

13 9.99 7.10

14 10.56 7.37

15 11.12 7.61

16 11.65 7.82

17 12.17 8.02

18 12.66 8.20

19 13.13 8.36

20 13.59 8.51

21 14.03 8.65

22 14.45 8.77

23 14.86 8.88

24 15.25 8.98

25 15.62 9.08

26* 15.98 9.16

27* 16.33 9.24

* CM CO 16.66 9.31

29* 16.98 9.37

30* 17.29 9.43

*UPW factors are reported for FEMP LCC Approach for years 26-30

to accommodate a planning/construction period of up to 5 years.

4
Modified Uniform Present Worth discount factors for Federal use

(Based on Federally required discount rates of 4.0 and 10 percent and DOE-projected

rates of change in energy prices, both of which exclude general price inflation)

This section presents "modified" uniform present worth (UPW*) discount factors for the 4 Census

regions and for the United States. The factors are modified in the sense that they incorporate

projected energy price changes. There are two sets of tables: the "a" tables present UPW* factors

based on a 4.0 percent "real" discount rate, and the "b" tables present UPW* factors based on a 10

percent real discount rate.

The factors presented in the "a" tables are for calculating the present value of energy costs or savings

accruing over 1 to 25 years and are to be used in life-cycle cost analyses of Federal energy

conservation and renewable energy projects. Factors are reported in the "a" tables for 30 years to accommodate a planning/design/construction period of up to 5 years. (See "Example of How to Use

UPW* Factors" below for instructions on use with planning/design/construction periods.)

The factors presented in the "b" tables are for calculating the present value of energy costs or savings

accruing over 1 to 30 years and are to be used for life-cycle cost analysis of the energy component

of Federal projects that are not primarily for conserving energy or providing renewable energy.

Both sets of factors apply only to energy conservation that recurs in uniform amounts. Refer to NIST Handbook 135 for evaluating energy conservation that varies in amount over time.

The UPW* factors incorporate rates of change in energy prices computed from prices projected by

the Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the U.S. Department of Energy. Projections at the

national level to the year 2010 are reported by EIA in the Annual Energy Outlook 1992 (DOE/EIA0383(92)). Assumptions underlying the model used by EIA to project energy prices to the year 2010

are presented in Assumptions for the Annual Energy Outlook 1992 (DOE/EIA-0527(92)).

Projections of world oil prices are used by EIA to project prices for related fuels for years 2011 to 2022. World oil price projections are documented in Oil Market Simulation User’s Manual

(DOE/EIA-M028(91).

The formula for finding the present value (P) of future energy costs or savings is the following:

N 1(1 992 +n) A0 x E = A0 x UPW*N , n=l (l+d)n

base-year dollar cost of energy, i.e., the annual quantity of energy times its price

in today’s dollars;

counter used to designate each year, with n = l for the year 1993;

P =

where A0 =

n =

5
N = number of periods, e.g. years, over which energy costs or savings

accrue;

I(i 992 +n) = projected average fuel price index1 given in tables Ca-1 through Ca-5

for the year 1992+n and

d = discount rate.

Examples of How to Use UPW* Factors:

UPW*(4.0%, no planning/design/construction period): To compute the present value of heating with

distillate oil over 15 years for an energy-conserving design of a Federal office building in New

Mexico, go to table B-4a, find the UPW* factor for commercial distillate for 15 years (13.93), and

multiply the factor by the annual heating cost in today’s dollars. The cost in "today’s" dollars is the cost as of the date of analysis.

UPW*(4.0%, with planning/design/construction period): (1) Find the UPW* factor for the combined

lengths of the planning/design/construction period and the occupancy period (not to exceed 30 years),

and (2) subtract from (1) the UPW* factor for the planning/design/construction period alone. The

difference is the UPW* factor for the years over which energy costs or savings accrue. For example,

suppose an energy-conserving Federal office building in New York is being designed. It is expected

to have a planning/design/construction period of 5 years, after which it will be occupied for at least 25 years. To compute the present value of natural gas costs over 25 years of occupancy, go to table

B-la and find the UPW* factors for commercial natural gas for 5 years (4.65) and for 30 years

(23.20). The difference (18.55) is the UPW* factor for natural gas costs over 25 years, beginning

5 years hence. Multiply 18.55 by the annual natural gas cost in today’s dollars to calculate the

present value of natural gas costs over the study period.

UPW*(10%): To compute the present value of electricity costs over 30 years associated with the

occupancy of a Federal office building in Ohio (where energy conservation is not a specific

consideration in the LCC analysis), go to table B-2b, find the UPW* factor for commercial electricity

for 30 years (9.10), and multiply by the annual electricity cost in today’s dollars.

For further explanation of the use of UPW* factors, see NIST Handbook 135.

The data in the tables which follow are reported for the 4 Census regions and the U.S. average.

Figure B-l presents a map showing the states corresponding to the 4 Census regions. The Census

regions do not include American Samoa, Canal Zone, Guam, Puerto Rico, Trust Territory of the

Pacific Islands, or the Virgin Islands. Analysts of Federal projects in these areas should use data

which are "reasonable under the circumstances," and may refer to the tables with U.S. average data

for guidance.

‘For greater precision, the UPW* factors reported in the Ba and Bb tables were computed using

the unrounded form of the indices given in tables Ca-1 through Ca-5.

6
WEST

MIDWEST

NORTHEAST

(Region

4)

(Region

2)

(Region

1)

7
Table

B-la.

UPW*

discount

factors

adjusted

for

average

fuel

price

escalation

by

end-use

sector

and

major

fuel.

Discount

rate =

4.0

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LCC

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factors

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reported

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years

26-30

to

accommodate a

planning/construction

period

of

up

to5

years.

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UPW*

factors

are

reported

for

years

26-30

to

accommodate a

planning/construction

period

ofup

to5

years.

(See

p. 6

for

instructions

on

use)
Table

B-3a.

UPW*

discount

factors

adjusted

for

average

fuel

price

escalation

by

end-use

sector

and

major

fuel.

Discount

rate =

4.0

percent

(FEMP

LCC

Approach)

Census

Region 3

(Alabama,

Arkansas,

Delaware,

District

of

Columbia,

Florida,

Georgia,

Kentucky,

Louisiana,

Maryland

Mississippi,

North

Carolina,

Oklahoma,

South

Carolina,

Tennessee,

Texas,

Virginia,

West

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ddd CO

T“ T- 7” 7“ TTM 7TM 7“ 7~ 7~ 7“ 7— 7“ 7“ 7— 7“ 7~ 7“ 7“ « « « « « Z| 7- CM CO M- LO CD N- CO 05 o 7—

CMTCO 73- 7—in7—CO7— 7“ 00

T“ 05 20 CM

CMCM 23 24 25 26 27 00

CM 29 30

10

UPW*

factors

are

reported

for

years

26-30

to

accommodate a

planning/construction

period

of

up

to5

years.

(See

p. 6

for

instructions

on

use)
Table

B-4a.

UPW*

discount

factors

adjusted

for

average

fuel

price

escalation

by

end-use

sector

and

major

fuel.

Discount

rate =

4.0

percent

(FEMP

LCC

Approach)

Census

Region 4

(Alaska,

Arizona,

California,

Colorado,

Hawaii,

Idaho,

Montana,

Nevada,

New

Mexico,

Oregon,

Utah,

Washington,

Wyoming) zo

h-<

Z| - C\J co lO to 00 CD o rt— CM CO

r—

^t

f—QC z CM in 00 CD CD oo to LO

N 00 co CM o

_Jto<0

CT)

q COq to to

q oo CM o CO to

q CM

0-0z O T_ c\i COd to to

q 00 CD CD o 1— CM z2

iIOCONC0 05 0 t- CM CO *t LO «CO «N «00 «CD *O t- t- t- t- CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CO

CO co COK <D 00 LO to LO

T

N 1“ 00

q CO 00 o 00 o to CM 00

q o LO ^rq T— CM oo d LO LO to q 00 00 CD o o i— T—

CM i— T— T— T— T- T— T— 1 1 CM CM CM CM CM

1^ o o to CD CO CO 00 o CD r- CM LO to T- to CD CM CO co CM CD CO

T LO 00 <oo

CD

q 00q

q CMq CO LO 00

q to COqq T—

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q

q

d

q CM 00

d LO to CO

q 00 00

d o d

q CM CM CO cd •d

d LO to cd

qqq cd cod T_ T

i

1

T_ 'rT“ T“ T“ TT~

to co to CM to CO 00 CO LO CD co LO CO to h- CO 00 <D co LO LO co CD CO CO CO LO CM < q CD CO q q q co to LO q q CO co CM 1— o q 00 h- q CM q q LO CO q q q 0U- o q CM 00 d LO CO q 00 d o y

CM 00 d LO lO CO q 00 d d r* q CM cd d d LO cd

-J< £ i— T_

T~ T_T" T_T~ T“ CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CM

oc

Q o 00 N- "t

T

O CM 00 vr CO o CO o 00 o- h- CD 00 LO tf to LO CM 00 CM

OO to o q o CM 00 Mq to

q CO

q

q

q o o CDq 00 hq LOqqq 00q CO T- CO 0 HI CM 00 d LO CO q 00 CD o f—

CM co id co

qq cdd o i

CM cd

d id id cd

q 00 CO

QZ

oc T_ T_ T_ t~ T~ T~ CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CM b CM N- CM Is- CM CO T— Lt to CO -t co 00 CD N- •o- CD CO •'sf lO CO O to o CM CM 00

to CO

qq co h~qq COqq CO cm T"qqq CO T- CO COq

O

qqq iq 00 CDq

q

Q

d T- CM 00

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q 00ddd i

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TT_ T—T~ i—

T~ 'r- T_ T_ T_ T_

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CM CM CM CM CM CM CM

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q CD

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d

q CM 00

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d

d LO LO to to cdqq 00 cd 00 i— T

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T

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h- T_ CMO co o o to CD CDN CM LO T- t

to h» CO LO CM 00 CO h- o CM <r\ q q q 1^- q q CM o N q q LO 1— q co q q q LO o q q LO O CD co CO CM o o T- CM cd d id to q q oo d d o q q CM CM cd d d id LO td td q q q oo 00 d T“ T T_ t_ T T“ T_ T_ T_ T_ T“ 7_ T_

CO co co 00 t'- CO LO CO o r^- co co CM ,cf LO LO LO CO o LO 00 o o 00 LO o 't LO CO 't < q q q r^- q LO q q CM o q h'. q q q o CO q q

1— oo

q coqq CO

q

q T—q

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CM cd

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d id td

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q ood

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cr

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T" T“ T_T~ T- T_ 1“ CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CM o 1— i^- CO 00 CO CD o LO o co LO •M- CM 00 co LO LO CO CD 1-'- CD CD r^- it CD CM ^t 't CO

CO (D

q 00 00 lq i^- r- to

qq CO CM o q r'-- LO CO o 00q CM CD to CO CD CO CM 00q

Q

d

q CM cd id td

q 00

d o q C\i cd cd

d LO cd

qq 00ddd

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T_ T_ CM CM CM CM CM CM CM o to 00 co o CD LO CD o CD LO <D <D co o o CD CO lO 00 CD CD 00 LO to

UJ1 CD 00 rv.

qq T~mqq

M- o q CO

qq Tq CM coqqq N; T~qq CO

q I— LO 00

UJ o 1- CM cd

d id id to

q 00 co

d o o 1

q CM CM cd cd

dd id LO id CO cd

qqq T— t

T

T r— TT i— i— T— i— i— i— i— ^

1

Ty—

CO 00 00 CD CD h- LO CM 00 co r- o T_

O 1^- 't 05 co LO to LO CM 00 CM lO to to co

O </n q q CO q q q q co t- o CO q q q T— CO q q I— 00 lO q q LO CM 00 q o to CM 2 o T- CM cd d d td q CO d d O q CM cd cd d LO td td q co 00 d O d t

CM CM cd s i

T

T_ 1” T_ 'r_T~ T_T~ T— T_ CM CM CM CM CM CM 0 to CD O CD o 't N- oo r- 't 05 CM co CM 05 uo 05 CM CO CO CM 05 LO o CO LO LO rt

_l 0.

q ra oo to

q •q co T— CD

qqq o CO

qq 00 LO T— 00

q o toqq 00 CO 00 CO < —

o T— CM cd d d to q q 00 d o y~ y- CM cd cd d id id td q q 00 cd d d o o T_ T_ TTM T_ T— T~ T“ T_ T_ T_ T_ T— CM CM CM

LUQ

h- y- LO h- CD CD CD 00 LO y- 'Ct to to co 05 CM ^t M" CM 05 o- 00 o 05 LO o rt (O

Tr\ CO CD

q CO

qq uoq CO

q

1— UJ

qqq

q o 00q CMq

q CM coq T—q CM 00 Tt CDq

UJ

D o q CM cd

d id td

q 00

d

dO T- CM cd cd

d LO id td

qq 00dd

d

d TTCM

oc T_ T_ T_ T_

T“ t_ T_ T_T~ CM CM CM CM CM o N* o 1 00 CM LO t— to 05 05 CM LO co LO CM h- o CM 05 to ^ 10 1^. 00 N. LO CM

LU CD CD 00

qqq T-.

q co co o q

q o to CM 00 co

qqq CO 00 CO

q T— LO 05 CO r«- UJ O T- c\j cd LO td td q co d d o q q CM CM cd cd d it id id td td q q q 00 00 i

T— T— T— ,—

T“ T— T— T— T_ T— t~ T— T—

Zl T- CM 00 'Q- LO co oo 05 o y— CM co <t LO to

N oo 05 o CM co ^t lO «to 0h- «oo •

y~~ CD o T— y~“ T* T— T" T“ CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CO

li

*UPW*

factors

are

reported

for

years

26-30

to

accommodate a

planning/construction

period

of

up

to5

years.

(See

p. 6

for

instructions

on

use)
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00

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V) -oc O 03

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CL2

LU

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'6£

CL

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mS>O)

ii & 0 S 2 <o ~ a c a = co p -o

Cb

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7“

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CO 1CO CO 17 CO

r~ 05

7— 20 T“CM 22 23 24 25 «CO

CM «Is- CM «CO

CM «05CM «oCO <

I—cc z CO

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q M; CM 05

q 00 o q

q

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q

q COq 0.COz o T“ CM CO •M’ CO CO 00 d 05 o7

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r—

CM CO7

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T—

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d

CM oCM CM CM

CM

CM z21-

00 CO CO co CO 05 co CO co CO 00 co CO Is- h- CO CM 00 1— CO CM 05 oo 1— CM CM < 05 05 q q q "cr q i— 05 q q q q co o q q o q q q 05 q o q i

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CM cb cb cb cb cb cb 00 05 05 o o T

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i

T“ T" T_ T_ 'r_ CM CM CM

CO 05 Is- ’Ct 05 o Is- CO M- co CM 05 N- CO 05 05 00 CO 05 CM co oo CM < 05 q q q q q q Is- q N q q q q q q q co q q q q i

q q q M; Tq CO 2 o i

CM CO CO cb 1^ 00 05 o 7—CM cb M" cb cb r^‘ 00 05 o i

CM CM cb

M1 cb cb cb < 5 T~ T_ T— 7— i

T— T— ii

CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CM P Q o CO 05 co co co 'tf- CO 00 05 05 Is- co 00 O 05 LO 05 T— 05 CO 05 T

00 00 o

CO CO o o o I—.

qq CO coqqq o o i

•r*

q o qqqqqq CM o q CO

q o 3 UJ q CM CO co cb r-' 00 05 o 7

CM M- cb cb co 05 05 o q CM cb 'cr cb cb cb 00 05 Z 0 T— T~ i

T~ T_ TT_ T— CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CM

Jrr r- CM h- CM co i

co o CO CO CO CO

O M- N- 00 co co oo CO co CM 05 co o T— o h»

CO 05

qq 00

qqq co CO 0- co

q T—

qqqq T— 00 CO

q o q CO o q coq CO o Q o T— CM co cb cb N co 05 o T— CM CM cb cb cb cb 00 05 05 o y— T— CM CM cb ,3: 7— 1— T— T~ T— T“ T" T

T“ r— T— CM CM CM CM CM CM CM O CO 05 05 CO 00 05 Is- 00 o o 00 N 05 co co CM CO CO co 'cr o 'Cf h- CO 00 N 9

05

q COq CM o q CO

q o qq

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q

q

q 00qq T- to 05 co

N

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CM y~ 00 co t^ 05 0 05 CO 00 7co '3" CO 0 CM CO CO 05 0 < 05 q q N q q q CM o q CO q o q 10 T— co q r- q q O CO q q q 00 q CO o d q CM cb 'Cf cb cb 1^ 00 00 05 o 7—’ 7—

CM cb cb

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dd 7— T— T_ T~ T~ T“ T“ T_ 'r_ T_ T“ T_ T“ T~ CM CM CM

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CO 00 05 0 0 05 CO CO h- 1^ co 05 CO CO CD < q q 00 t'-. q co M; CO CM o q q q q

1—

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7

7

T_ T_ T_ 7—

r“ CM CM CM CM CM CM CM

O0 Q o CM CO M- co CM o CO CO o co CO 05 r- 00 N- 05 CM co CM

O CO CO 05 05

UJ CO

q o o y— T—

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CO CO f". CO CO CO CM CO CO M- CM

CO

q

q

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qqq COqqq Tqqqq r—'q COqqqqqqqqq rQ o r— CM cb b cb cb N 00 05 o y—' CM CM cb b cb CO cb h-’ cb 05 05 d 7-1 7—

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N 0 9 q q q CO q T- q q CM 05 q CM q q q q q q q q q T“ q q q CO q co

UJ o 7- CM cb ,a: cb cb cb cb 05 05

dd 7— 7— CM CM cb cb cb cb cb cb cb cb l< 1— 7— 7— 7— 7— 7— 7— 7— 7— 7— 7— 7— 7— 1— T— 7— r*

CO CO CO 05 05 h- in 7

CM co 05 0 O 00 in eg h- 0 CM CM 7— CO

M- co y_ 7— CO cf <2 q q q q q q q CO 7— q q q q q q q CD q 7-; q in q q q

7—

qqqq Td T-I CM cb b ib cb 1^ 00 05 05 d 7-1 CM cb cb Tj* cb cb cb CO cb 05 d d 7—' CM CM cb 5 T_ 1 T_ 7

r— T_

T" T_ 7

T_ 7CM CM CM CM CM CM 0 co 05 0 0 05 CO co 05 co CO r'-- in CM h- 0 O 00 M- 00 CO •M- CO O co 7— CO CO

-J QL

q COq

qqqq TTMq 00q 'crqqq

q T“|

q ^1;

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q

q

qqq

qq < d 7“— CM cb ib cb cb cb 05 d T-J 7U CM cb 'b in cb cb K cb 05 05 d d 7-^ TT_ T_ t~ T~ T" T_ 7

T~ T“ 'r" T_ CM CM CM CM

UJQ

1— h- 7

co r^ co O’

r

_ in 00 05 Is- •M- co

T

_ 0 CO Is- 0 7_

O Is- CM Is- 05 7“

cb

LU

CO 05 05

qqq

m

q COqq co CDqq

qq 7

q 0 Is- q

q cnq CO 7— CD

q

D

d tJ CM cb •M- cb cb 00 05 05

d 7-! CM CM cb ib cb cb 1^ cb cb 05

dd 7U 7U CM 0 T_ ,_ T“ T~ T_ 7

T_

T~ T_ t_ 7— CM CM CM CM CM

O co CO CM CM 00 co CM co CO in in CO 05 CO Is- CO co 05 ^r 1s- 00 05 CO

m CM Is- 9 q q q CO q q q q q

7—

q •M- 0 co CMq CO 00q

qqqqqq

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UJ

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N cb 00

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T— M- in

T—

co7

N

T— co

7— 05 20 CM 22 co

CM 24 25 26 27 00

CM 05CM 30

12

UPW*

factors

are

reported

for

years

26-30

to

accommodate a

planning/construction

period

ofup

to5

years.

(See

p. 6

for

instructions

on

use)
Z| CM CO in CO Is- 00 05

O 1“ CM CO ’t' in CON CO 05

O r- CM CO in CO Is- 00 O)

O zop<

f—

(X

T” T— T— T— r— T— CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CO z m 00 CO o o in r- in o> O Is- CM CO 00 o M" Is- CO 00 CO CO co CO CO 00 05 o> 05 o

_Jco<

05 Is- in CM

q CD CMq CM

q T— CO 05 CO CD 05 CM 0; CD CO

O CM 'Cf in Is- 00 05 o T— CM

CL o P CM CO CO in in CD CDN Is- CO 00 00 05 05 05 05 o o o o o o o TTM T” T“

COz o

T— 1_r" r- T— 1— 1

_l CM CO

O 05 NO 05 CD

m T- in CD in CM Is- O T- r- 05 CD T- in 00

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T_ T_ T_ T—

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1— CM

q

CO

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d T-’ CM co 't- ’if in ind CD Is

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dd 05 05dddOd r— 1—' T-

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Mcd

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in

05

co

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co

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co 1—co 1—IsCM05

CM

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CM

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CM

in

CM CO

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d

05

ddT—

co

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co a. ^5 s

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qd

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05

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55

HI

05

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q 05

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dddddd P P P P 0 T— T~ T_ 1— T_ T~ T— *- 0 ,_ 'O- co in co O 0 CD 00 in O t

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HJ

d CM CO co M- M- in in cd

d

dK f-i r-^ 1^ ddddd

dd 05 05 05 05 05 05 Z CM CO m CO N 00 05 0 CM CO in co Is- co 05 0 CM co M- in CO Is- co 05 O T- T— T" T— 1— T— T” T- T— T— CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CO

13
Table

B-2b.

UPW*

discount

factors

adjusted

for

average

fuel

price

escalation

by

end-use

sector

and

major

fuel.

Discount

rate

=10

percent

(OMB

A-94

LCC

Approach)

Census

Region 2

(Illinois,

Indiana,

Iowa,

Kansas,

Michigan,

Minnesota,

Missouri,

Nebraska,

North

Dakota,

Ohio,

South

Dakota,

Wisconsin)

Zl T- CM CO 3 m CO Is- 00 05 o T

CM co

m co r- CO 05 o 7— CM CO ^3- in CO Is- 00 05

O zo

r— 1T—

T” 1 1 T” CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CO

r—<kx z co 3 00 Is- Is- 05 Is- CM o in r- CO co oo CO CM T— 00 CO co co 3s in 3 o —

SO 5i

q in CM 05 CO CM Is- CM Is- CM CO o qqq CMqq I—.

q "3;q Is- 05 o T—

q

q

CL

\JJ < d

d CM CO CO 3- in in cb cb

dddd

d

d

dd

d

dO o o o o o T“ I

T

T—

wz2H o

T“ t— t— 1— y—

_l CM CO 3 in 05 CO co co o CM Is- CM co CO CO Is- CO ^1- co •3s CO Is- Is- Is- in < 05 q in CM CO 3; q in o 3; q T— in 00 T

q q q o q q Is- 05 O 1— q q 3; m o o T” CM CO CO 3s in in cb cb d Is-: r— co d d d d d d d d d o o o o o o T

T

T— t

T- i

CO 00 05 05 CO CO CO o 05 in co co 00 05 r- co r- 05 co in o co '3s CM 05 in 05 CM 3 < 05 q in CO o q CO 00 3; q 05 q Is- in q t— "3s Is- o q q q 05 T— CM 3; q 2 o r— CM CO 3s 3s in in cb cb d d d d d d o o o T-’ T“ T—

T— T“ CM CM CM CM 5 T T“ T~ T

t—

T

T_ T“ r— T— T_ ^

T_ < Q m CO Is- 3 Is- co co co in o co o in CO f- CO CO Is- CD co Is- o T“ o 00 3s 05 co E CO 05 00 Is- CO 3; CM o Is- 3 r-m Is- CM q q r- T-| q q q q q T-| q q q q T

q 3; q

CO 111 o d CM CO 3- in CD cb Is- 00

ddd o o T“ i

i

CM CM CM

dddd 3s 3s 3s 3s 3 D CC ,— 1_ i— T_ 'r_ t~ T“ r_ 'r~ T~ i

T“ T~ ir“ T*

LJz b CM Is- Is- CO 3 CM co

m CM 3 CM r- 05 Is- co in co CO 05 co in in oo CM co CO o -f— CO 05 q q CO o Is- co q in O in 05 q Is- T- •M; q o CM q q q t— q 3; q q q o 1

Q o TTM CM CO 3 3 in in cb Is- r-i Is

-"

ddddd o o o o o T

T” T” T— T— CM CM

r_TT_TT~ T

T“ 1— 1T

o o co co in Is- CM co o co CM co o o co co CO Is- co CO 05 M- Is- 05 o o o 00 CO CO

O 3

05 Is- 3 T—

q CO

qq Is- T~

q i— co co

q o qq

qqq 1qqq 3" in co

LU o CM CO

d 3s 3- in inddd Is

-’ Is- Is- d

dddddddddddd

d

_l CM Is- Is- 05 05 CM Is- 00 Is- CO CO co in in 00 co CO in CM Is- 3^ co Is- Is- CO < 05 Is- q CO 05 q T~ q CM q o m- co r-_ Is; q q ^3; q q q q q q q q q q o Uo d d CM CO CO 3 in in d d Is- i^ 1-^ d d d d d d d d d d o o d d d o T— T“ t_ r— T

y—~ y—

CO CO CO Is- 05 co CO o 3 in CM CD 00 CO CM co r- r- 05 co CM 05 in 05 CO

m CO < 05 r- q CO q q CM co q q CO 1- I— q q CM q CO r- q q q o q q q q q q o 2 d d CM CO CO 3 in LO cb d Is- Is- d d d d d d d d o o T- T- y— y— T- Y“ d CM

_

< i T“ T~ T“ T" i— T_

T~ T— T“ o Q 3 in co CO in co CM r- Is- Is- in T

co i— r- o 05 CD o CM co CM o CO T“m CO

cc1 1 

CO 05 CO

q in CO ^

co

q T— I LU s- q CO co CO CM CD 05

qqq T- ^3; co CO o CMqq

qq 2

Lll o T"

CM CO 3s in in cb

d r- cbddd o d o i

T— T— CM c\i CM CM

d

dddd

d 2

CC

T~ T_ tT~ T—

T~ T~ T_T~ T_ y— T— t~ T

Oo I- CM r- co 3 CO 3 05 o Is- o o CO 00 Is- ’3s Is- 00 Is- CO CO

O o oo in o 3s N co 05

CO 05 Is- in CO

q Is- co o q T~ co o qqqqq r- ^3;q

q T-^q •3;

q

q 05

O TTM

q

D o d CM CO 3s 3 in cb cb

d Is- dd

d

dd

d o o dd -r- T- T“ T— T— CM c\i CM

T“ r“ tTT_T- 1T“ T” T“ y—

T“ O o 3 05 CO CM o in in in in CM CO o ^ o CO co CO ^

CO in in 3s co o Is- 3s o

LUI 05 Is- 3; o q CM

q iqqq

q

q o co in Is- CO

q T-|

qqq

qqqq o ’“I UJ d CM CO CO 3s 3" in in d d d d l^ r-^ K r- d d d d d d d d d d d d

CO co 05 05 CM o 3 3 o co CM co CM CM 05 M" Is- Is- m CM CO CD 05 CD co CM r- 3s co Is- < 05 q in CO o q CM co q q CM N t- q Is- o q it q q q q q q q q q 2 o T— CM co 3s 3- in in cb d Is- d d d d d d d o o o o r" -r— T— d d TTM S T~ T_ T_ T_ T” T“ T“ T~ T— r“ 3 ^ CO o 3 3 05 ^ O co 05 T— 05 'M- oo o o oo co CO o CM CO 3 3

—I 05 Is- LO CM 05

q

q CM Is- in 05 CM

qq T-|

qqq T-;q 3;q

qqq 1—q

q < _j o T“ CM CO CO 3 in in cb d r-" f— Is

-"

d

d

dd

dddd

d o o d o T“ T—

dd

t;

TT— T—T~ T- T“ T_

T~ -r— T—

111

b l CO in 05 05 3 in CM LO 3 o CM T— co 05 o Is- CO Is- 05 05 CO

m CM CO o CO 3s in in

LJ CO 05 Is- in CM 05

q CMqqq co Is- T“ ’Sf I CO s- Tq

q

q o q "3;q 00 05 i—

q

q 3;q

LLJ

Q o d CM CO CO 3s in in cb

d Is

-’

ddddd

d

d o o o o o o TTM T“ Td

d

cc

T“ T” T~ T“ T_

T

T“ T“ T“" T_ o o CM Is- in CO CM 3 3 3 o co co o co 05 o 05 Is- CO 00 T— 3s m CO in 3s CM 05 co g

05

q 3 TTM Is- co °oq Is- qq T— •M- co 00 T“

q s3"q

qqq rq

q

3- in in CO

LU o T“ CM CO

d 3s 3 in ind

dd r- l-i Is-" Is- d

ddd

ddddd

dddd

d Z T- CM CO 3 in co r- co 05 o T“ CM co in CO r- co 05 o CM CO 3s in co Is- co ?! o

T— TTM T—

r

T— T“ CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CO

14
Table

B-3b.

UPW*

discount

factors

adjusted

for

average

fuel

price

escalation

by

end-use

sector

and

major

fuel.

Discount

rate

=10

percent

(OMB

A-94

LCC

Approach)

Census

Region 3

(Alabama,

Arkansas,

Delaware,

District

of

Columbia,

Florida,

Georgia,

Kentucky,

Louisiana,

Maryland

Mississippi,

North

Carolina,

Oklahoma,

South

Carolina,

Tennessee,

Texas,

Virginia,

West

Virginia)

Z| ^ CM CO O’ in CD 00 05 o y— CM CO O’ in CD 00 05 o 1

CM CO O’ in CD Is- CO 05 o zO 1 T— T— i

y— T— CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CO

F<

inr Z CO O’ 00 Is- 00 o oo CM co CM

N 05 00 CO O’ in in O’ CD O’ CD 00 00 oo

—o —

CO<

05

q CO CM 05 CD CM N; co

q CM co o CO

qqqq

q 05 T—qq CO 5 05 o T

q co

CL

d CM CO co O’ in in

d CD rd

dd

d 05

ddd o o o o o o T— J— T“ ycnz* o

r- r- T— 1

CM CO 00 05 CO CM CD Is- CO CD CO O’ 00 o o N- CO CD CO co N- O’ o in 00 o CM CM CM <oo

CD Is- CO co 05 CO CM

qqq

y—

q 05q CD

q O; CDqqq O; CD

qq o y~_

qq

O j-C. CM CO CO O’ in tn CD CD

d

ddddd

ddd o d o o o T“ T— T— T_ 'r_ TTM 1

1— T“ T“ T_

CO O’ CM lO CM in CD O’ 05 CM CM o in CD in o O’

m O’ 05 CO co CM CO CM O’ in O’ T- Is- CM < O) 00 CO o r- CO in i— CO O’ o q O q o O; co q q q q q q q q o; q q q q 2 o r— CM co O’ O’ in CD CD d co d 05 05 d o o T

d CM CM CM d d d d d d O’ 1 5 T“ i

i

T— T_ i—T“ T“

T iT“ T_

—i< Q in Is- CO

r

_ CO Is- 00 CD o 05 in

N O’ 05 o 00 CO CD co oO O’ CD CD in CM 00 CM CD

EE CO co 00

q CD O; CM CDq CO o q T~q T—

q o COq o CO CDq

qqqq o qq

co

HI o q CM CO O’ in in CD

d 00 00 05 05 o o d y— T- CM CM CM CMddddd O’ O’ O’

CC i

T_ T_

T T—T

T“ y— T_ T“

T T— i

i— T_ T—

L

Jz d CM Is- N- CO in CM Is- Is- O’ CD in co CM N- o T

05 U5 05 CM CM

T— 05 in o O’ r^ 00 05

CO

qqq co o q coq in o in

q O; CO T—qq o CO tn 00 o q co

qqqq o t-;

Q o T

CM co O’ O’ in in CD h-’dddd 05 05 05 o o o o T“ T“

q

d y— CM CM r- T— r— 1— T— T- T~ T_ T_ t—

O to T— o O’ CM CD in co CM oo o o CM in CO

m CO 05 CO N- 05 o o o 00 CD CO

g

05 N; co CM CO O; CD O;

q coq o O’ 05q O;qq o i— co

O- m 1^ 00 05 05

O

q

LU o CM CO CO O’ O’ in in CD

dNddddd

d

ddddddd o o

-J CM 00 Is- o N 05 Is- o CD 05 00 in o CM 05 in CO o o 05 CD CM

k o co O’ in in <

(•'i 05

q in CO 05 in T“

N

qq o O’ COqq co o coqq o T— CO

m CD oo 05 o T—

q o d F CM CO CO O’ in LO CD d Is- N d d d 05 d d d d d d d o o o d 1— y— T_ ir* 'r_ T_ T_ T“ T_ 'r"

CO CM co Is- o CO T— y— Is- o o CD o o 00 co co co tn CM CD 05 o 05 co 05 co CD 1^ oo <2

05 N; to CO 05

q CM

q co CO CMq T- O;q T— O;q o q O;q

q

qqq

qqqq o T-" CM CO CO O’ in in CD d d 1^ d d d 05 05 d o o o O o d i— T~ d d

-J< 5 T_ ,_

T~ T“ T~ T“ T_T“ r“ T“ T“ o

CCLU2 Q in 00 00 in 00 co in 05 co O’ in CM CD in T— CO co 05 co o- CO o m N- 00 00 CD CM Is- i

CO 05 co Is- co O; CM o q O’ r~m

q 00 co co 00qq

q co co 05q O;

qqqq o;qq LU o T— CM CO O’ in CD CD CO d 05 05 o o T~~ i— T“ CM CM CM d d d d O’ O’ O’ O’ O’ 5

CC

T~ y— T— y— T— y— 1T“

T“ T“ T” T“" T_T~ Oo CO CM oo O’ in o T“ 00 CM CM 00 O o CD o y_ o CD y_ O’ in o- CM co O’ 00 o CM CO

05

q to co o q O; o q T— CD o q

qq CDqq O;

q

q T“q

q

qqq Tq co

Q

d t— CM CO O’ O’ in CD CD

d

dddd 05 05d o O o d

d

d T— T~ yL TTM CM CM CM

T_ T_ 1— T“ T_ 1— T_

T“ T—T~ O O’ 05 co 00 co O’ O’ co oo o t'- CM m in O’ r- r— O" 1^ 00 CO Is- m CO o CD

LUI 05

q O; Is- CO co co

q T- O’ CO T- co CD oo o q O; in

q

q 05 o y— CM coq in

m

LU o CM CO CO O’ O’ in in

d

ddd

dd

dd

d

d

dd

d

d

ddd

co co 05 CO o 00 o 05 O’ CD O’ 05 o CD o o CM in N- in CM 00 CM

m 00 05 05 <g

05

q LO CO

qq Is- q

q T— 5 o CO o co

q

q o q O; CD

q 05 T— CM co o; in o r-' CM CO co O’ in Lf5 CD d d N d d d 05 d d d d d d d d o T*“ r-' yL y— i T— T_ T_ T“ T

'r_ T” T~ o 1

o- y— CM 05 y- 05 CO O’ o co co 05 co O’ CM co co in

m in CM 05 o- Is- o CM CO CO CM

_l 05

q to CM co in o q T— CO o O’

N T“ O;

qq

q O;

qq

q T—

q O;qq 00q o < o 1— CM CO CO O’ in in CD d N d d d d d d d d o o o d d O d d d

Ei

T- T_ T_ 'T— T“T~ T~ T”

LUQ

T_ co lO 00 Is- CM CM 00

O 05 O’ in CO 00 o o r- co CD h- CD co 00 co CD 00 o o o

CO

LU

05

q in CM 05

q CM

N CO

q CM co o coq o q

q

q 05 T—qqqq 05 o CM CO O’

Q o d CM co CO O’ in in cd

d

d

ddd 05dddddddd

d

d

d T” Tq

CC T_ y—

T“ T_ *-

O T“ O’ 05

N CO CO O’ T“ in O’ o CO O’ i

r-- o 1 o r-- O’ 00 CM O’m CDm O’ CM 05m LUi 05 N O; T— r^ CO CO q q T- q co T~ O’ co 05 T- co O; q q q o y— q co o q q q

UJ o 1“ CM CO co O’ O’ in in

dd CD Is- d

dddd

d

d

ddddddd 2 T- CM CO O’ in CD N 00 05 o CM CO O’ m CD N 00 05 o CM co O’ in CD Is- 00 29 o T— r- T— T— T— T— T— T— r- CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CM co

15
Table

B-4b.

UPW*

discount

factors

adjusted

for

average

fuel

price

escalation

by

end-use

sector

and

major

fuel.

Discount

rate =

10

percent

(OMB

A-94

LCC

Approach)

Census

Region 4

(Alaska,

Arizona,

California,

Colorado,

Hawaii,

Idaho,

Montana,

Nevada,

New

Mexico,

Oregon,

Utah,

Washington,

Wyoming)

Zl T- CM CO df LO CO Is- 00 CD o 1— CM CO df LO CO 00 05 o T— CM CO dj- LO CON CO CD o z01

T—

r T“ T~ 1 T— CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CO

r”<

i—

cc z r“ CO CO CD 00 CO CO CD o 00 CO co CO 00 h- dj- CD CM df CO 00 df- 00 1

df LO LO LO o

_lCO< q

q LO CM CD CO

q

q COqq COq

q

q

qq d;q CD T- CO dt CO

qq o CM CO

CL

b

b oi

b

b obb

b

b Is

-'

bb

b

b

ddd CD

dO o o o o i

T

q

q

COz< 0 1 1 T— T— T— d~

d- i

1-

_J LO o CM CD CM co I < s- df CD o CD CO o co T— 00 co N- o CM CO df CO CM o oo q N LO CM 00 co CD df co q q q co LO oo co q q q o q CO q q q q q o b T- CM CO b df b b b b b b N- N b b b b b d d d d d d d d d o d- dCO CO o CO Is- df Is- Is- LO CD o 00 co LO dT co 00 00 co CM co 00 00 df o LO 00 <b

CD °0 CO CO o q CO

q

q o co o qqqq o q

qqq dl;qq o CM df

qq co o 1— CM CO df df b b b N f-i b b b CD d d o o o T“ r~~ TTM T“ CM CM CM CM CM CM s T_ T_ ,— T_ i

T d- d“ d- T

< Q un CO LO o CD df LO CM LO df 00 CD CD d- CO LO CO 00 CM df df CM CD LO CD CM

cc

1—<0

CO CD 00 Is- CO df r~~ CD CO co CD

q o LO o LO CD

qqq CM LOqq CM df CO h- CD o CM

III o T- CM CO df

b

bb

b CD CD o d o T— rq CM CM CM

bbbbb

b df df

D cc T_ T_ T_ T_ T_ i—

d- d- d~ d~

LJz f— CM r^- r- CO LO CM CO CO co LO df CD CD LO 00 CO CO CM CO 00 00 LO CO CD CM CO df

CO CD

q LO CO

qq CO

qq o LO CDq T~ d); o COqq CD i

q

q

qqq o o b i— oi b df df b b b N r^’ Is- b b d d d o o o O d T— i— i— CM CM

T_ T_ T_

T~ T— ,_d- d~ d~d- T

o df o CD CM o df df CD t o LO co co 00 o 1 o N- 00 h- o CM 00 df 00 CD CD y

UJ

CD

q LO T- 00 df

q df co CO r-- o co co CD T” d;

qqq rq df LO COq 00 CD CD

O

b CMbb df

b

bb

bb i^bbbbbdddddddddd

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T- o 00 CO <oo

CD

q LO CM CO df o LO CD df

q TN CDq dj;

qq

O »—

q dfqq 00

q o o T- o oi b b df b b b b b N N N b b b b d d d d d d d d o o o d- d- d“

CO OJ 00

K o O Is- CD CD LO CD CD CM df LO co o dT 00 LO co o co LO CO <01—

CD

q LO COq COqqqq CM CO o d;q •d;q o q d; co 00 o qqqqq CO

b T” CMbb dfbbbb f-i r-ibbbdddddd o d T-’ i— T“ T“

T

T"“ T—

_J< z T” T_ ,—

T~ d“ d~ d~ d”

d- o Q df •f o T 00 1 o CO Is- LO CD 00 d- co co co N- CD CO K o o co LO o df h- CD

ccUJ

2>

CO CD 00

q LO cm

O

q co

q LO o qq dT

qqqq T- dtq

q iq dfqq

q o T-| HI o TTM oi b df LO b b b c-' b b b CD CD o o o T~ T" CM CM CM cvi cvi CM b b 5

CC

T~ r" d- d~d- d— d~d- oo K C\J Is- 00 df CO df CD o r- o CD LO 00 D>- co t^- CO CM CD o CD df CD co LO Is- 00

CO CD

q LO CO o q CO o q i

LO o d;

qqqq

q df

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q o T-' CM

Q

b oib df dfb

b

b

Nb

bbddd o o o o y— T— T” T— T— i— CM CM Cvi T_ T_ T~ 1

1 d- d~ d- d~ d- d“ o CO Is- CO CM CO o co CM 00 o 00 CM LO CD LO CM 00 CM CO 00 CD CD 00 l^ LO CM 00

HI1 CD

q 0- T—q CO CO co Is- i

df

qq co 00 o q d; LOq 00 CD

O

q

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q

UJ

b oi

b

b df •dfbbbbbb

bbb

b

b

b

d

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CO CO CD 00 CD CM 1 CO 00 Is- CM LO dT o df CD LO co 00 CM co co CM CD LO CD co LO Is- Is- <b

CD Is- LO CO CD

q CMq CMq CM co

O df o CO co 00 T— co

qq CO o rq df

q

q

b

b oi

bb dfbbbb Is

-'

bbbdd

dd o dddd i

r- T” T“ T“ 5 d- T_ T~ T" d- d~ d- d“ d“ 0 - df 1 CM CO O 00 CM CM 00 T

o r^ o i— CD LO CD T“ T

o h- df CD CM LO Is- Is- Is- CO

_l

q Is- LO CM 00 LO o CO i—q o n T— df

q

q T“ d;

qq CD i— CM dfqqq 00 CD < -1 o TTM oi b b b b b b b i--i b b b b d d d d d o o o o d d o o i T“ d” T” i

d- d- d~

HIQ

1— CO LO CD 00 CO CO o co Is- 00 CM LO LO CM 00 ^ co co CM CD LO CD CO LO Is- Is- Is- CO CD q LO CM CD q q co co q CM CO o df q o q q co o q df q q 00 o r- CM q df

CO

HI

Q o i

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b

b

b

b

bbb D-i

bbbddd

d

d

d o o o o TTM i-^ 1—

CC

TT“ T

d- T” d~ TTM 1d~ o LO CM LO df Is- D- CM co CO CO CM co 00 00 CO CD co CD 00 00 N- LO CM CD

HI CD

q LO CM 00 df CD df CD coq o co CO CD 1—

qqq

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q

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UJ o T~ oi

b

b df

b

b

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d

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N 00 CD o CM CO df LO co

N 00 CD o t— v~ TTM T“ r- T— T— T— CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CO

16
Z| - CM CO 3 ID CO Is- CO 05 o ymm CM CO 3 lO CO Is- 00 05

O 1— CM CO 3 in CO r*. CO 05 o zoF<Hpr

r- r- T“

T” r— T“ T“ CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CO z CO IT) CO Is- Is- O) Is T” CM o LO Is- Is- 3 05 CM CO CO 00 CO 00 CO LO in 3 o

_lco<

05

q U) CM 04 CO CM

q CM

q CVJ CO o CO co 05 CM 3 Is- 05 T“ CO 3 CO Is- 05 o CM

q

CL o r— 04 CO CO 3 in ib CO co h-* 00 co 00 00 05 05 05 05 o o o o o o -r- T“ T“ T"“ CO2 0

T“* T—T“ T_ T_ T— T— -f- £H

_J CM h- CD 00 3 in CM M" CM Is CO CD r- co co y— Is- T_ co co CM 05 in o s3- CD 00 00 co

N </•--l 05 Is- q q q q T-| q q q CO I u s- o co q 00 r- co q q cq o q q q q q q q o d T— CM co co 3" in in CD CD CD Is 1^ 00 00 00 00 d 05 05 05 05 d d d d o d o o T— T“ t— T~ T_ c 0 3 T— CO 05 O in 00 00 in co 05 Is- CM 'Cj- ^3’ CM Is- 05 o 00 co Is- 05 o co CD CM co o < CD 00 CD co i— cq *3" o q CM Is- CM Is- q q o Is- o ^3; q q T— co CD Is- 05 -

CM 3-

CO CD

i—

d r— CM co 3 3" in CD CD 00 00 05 05

dd o i—

T— T“ T-" CM CM CM CM CM CO CO co

T T“ T—

CO _i z < Q in Is- CD CO j- CD co in 05 co co •O' CM CD Is- in o CM CM o in 05 r~ y~

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CD PE CO 05q Is- CD 3; CM 05q co 05q T- CD I— in 05 ooq

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CDO

X.Q 0 ID o T— CM CO 3- in in CD Is 00 05 05 o o o t—

T““ CM CM CM CM CO CO co CO CO 3- ^* 0 3 0 r_ T— T— T— y— T“ T" T_ T_ T

T

T“ 'C

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0

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17
Projected average fuel price indices and escalation rates for Federal use (Indices and

escalation rates exclude general price inflation)

Table C . "Regional and U.S. average base-year fuel prices by end-use sector and major fuel," has

been discontinued. Use your actual energy prices as of the date the analysis is performed as the

starting point for estimating present value energy costs.

Tables Ca-1 through Ca-5 present projected average fuel price indices for the 4 Census regions and

for the United States. These are multipliers which when applied to today’s prices provide estimates

of the corresponding future-year prices in constant base-year dollars. The indices reflect end-of-year

prices. End-of-year indices are needed because energy prices are discounted from the end of the

year in calculating the UPW* factors. Constant dollar prices are needed when discounting is performed with a real discount rate (i.e., one which does not include general price inflation).

Example of How to Use the Indices:

To estimate the price of industrial steam coal at the end of year 2005 in Connecticut, go to table Ca1, find the year 2005 index for industrial steam coal (1.25), and multiply by the price for industrial

steam coal in Connecticut at the beginning of 1993.

Tables Cb-1 through Cb-5 present the projected average fuel price escalation rates (percentage

change compounded annually) for seven selected periods from 1992 to 2022 for the 4 Census regions

and for the United States. Note that these are "real" rates exclusive of general price inflation. Their use results in prices expressed in constant dollars.

The escalation rates consolidate the information provided by the indices in the Ca tables so that trends in projected price changes can be seen at a glance. They are provided primarily to accommodate those who use computer programs which require escalation rates as inputs.

Unless there is a compelling reason to use escalation rates, it is recommended that you use the

indices in the Ca tables when you need estimates of future-year energy prices, since the indices

include year-to-year information rather than averages over a number of years.

Example of How to Use the Escalation Rates:

To estimate the price of residential distillate in 1998 (p98) in Wyoming using the escalation rates, go

to table Cb-4 and find the 1992-1995 and 1995-2000 escalation rates for residential distillate (1.61 %

and 2.97% per year, respectively). Enter these values and today’s price of residential distillate in Wyoming (p92) into the following formula. Then solve for the 1998 energy price (stated in today’s

dollars):

P98 = P92 x (1 + e,)

k

, x (1 + e2) k2 ,

= p92 x (1 + 0.0161)3 x (1 + 0.0297)3

18
where e; Annual compound escalation rate for period i from the Cb tables (in decimal

form); and

K = Number of years over which escalation rate occurs.

For further explanation of how to use these tables, see NIST Handbook 135.

The data in the tables which follow are reported for the 4 Census regions and the U.S. average.

Figure B-l presents a map showing the states corresponding to the 4 Census regions. The Census

regions do not include American Samoa, Canal Zone, Guam, Puerto Rico, Trust Territory of the

Pacific Islands, or the Virgin Islands. Analysts of Federal projects in these areas should use data

which are "reasonable under the circumstances," and may refer to the tables with U.S. average data

for guidance.

19
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Oil

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Assumption

1.02

1.07

1.13

1.18

1.24

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1.36

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1.47

1.52

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21

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years

2018-2022

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Table

Ca-2.

Projected

average

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tied

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the

value

of

the

dollar

in

1992,

by

end-use

sector

and

major

fuel

Census

Region 2

(Illinois,

Indiana,

Iowa,

Kansas,

Michigan,

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Dakota,

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world

oil

price

indices

(1992 =

1.00)

Oil

Price

Assumption

1.02

1.07

1.13

1.18

1.24

1.30

1.36

1.42

1.47

1.52

1.56

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Ca-3.

Projected

average

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tied

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the

value

of

the

dollar

in

1992,

by

end-use

sector

and

major

fuel

Census

Region 3

(Alabama,

Arkansas,

Delaware,

District

of

Columbia,

Florida,

Georgia,

Kentucky,

Louisiana,

Maryland

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Tennessee,

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Projected

world

oil

price

indices

(1992 =

1.00)

Oil

Price

Assumption

1.02

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1.36

1.42

1.47

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1.60

1.63

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1.69
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Ca-3,

continued.

Projected

average

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value

of

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in

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by

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major

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Census

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world

oil

price

indices

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Oil

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1.02

1.07

1.13

1.18

1.24

1.30

1.36

1.42

1.47

1.52

1.56

1.60

1.63

1.66

1.69
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Ca-4,

continued.

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average

fuel

price

indices

tied

to

the

value

of

the

dollar

in

1992,

by

end-use

sector

and

major

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28

Projected

world

oil

price

indices

(1992 =

1.00)

Oil

Price

Assumption

1.02

1.07

1.13

1.18

1.24

1.30

1.36

1.42

1.47

1.52

1.56

1.60

1.63

1.66

1.69
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k- 1 CM 1 i O O

COE 1 « 1 CM CO in co CO CM co 05

N T- CO 05 00 i CO "O 1 co 1 y— in m O N- CO in T— CM CM xf in i o

_0 1 1 yy

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CO

</5 0o

'td c 1 r- 1 y— CD co y— in LO T— 05 o CO 05

O N- CD i O 1 T- 1 r— in in N o 1— in y— N CM xf in O

tlC oa 111 oCM 111 X- x- CM 'r_ CM CM ii V)

CM

0)od

Q.

81 0p*0

a. 1 CO 1 o r— co xr CM co h- co N- CM in in XT 1 8 N- 83 111j O

CM 111j - q

qq o N- o

CM

n. ^3; T~N

CM

T—

csi

qq 1 £ 1 C

05 0 0 O 1 0o o 3 O D O 1 in 1 o y— 05 CD O" O in m CD 05 CM O- co T— i -c o xr

(1) 05 c0

>>

LL0

05 II 1111 o

CM 111I - q xT

q o N. o

CM T~

q

CM CM T—

q 1 5j o II

05

CO—0> n 20

CM05

05 1 XT 1 05 05 CD co co co CD CD 00

O 05

O 1 )-

CMO)

05 CM > 1 T— 1 o xr CD o CD o O’ T— CD O T— xr xr O 05

CO 05 < ' 1 o

CM 1 r- T- y-i T“ T- T-’ CM y-1 r-‘ yJ. CM CM yJ. y-1 5 r- O) O o "O T— 0 1 0

0)

C o 1 CO 1 CO CD xr

O CM xr CO CO T— in in N- 05 CD 1 o CO

O CD 1 1 o XT XT CD

O CD 05 CD r— CD o O CO xt i .9L 00 .0 >- 0

co — 5 Ou. 11 ©CM 11 -r- T- Y- T- T- Y- Y— CM CM YTM Y~ ! 2 ow. CL 1 1 1 CL Q. O 03 o * 1 CM 1 CO 0- CM CO CM y— in in 05 Tj- T— CM CO N- XT 1 in

... 'C 1 T“ 1 o 0- in

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d0

Q) ^

r- £ $ 1 O

CM 11

T— T“

x

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XCO c ° co 0 Ty 1 T— 1 Is- T- 05 in T— 00 T““ CM N- 00 00 O in y— 1 y— 1 1 o q q q O in 05 CD CO q q o q Xf 00

b_o

z: sj 2 s> 1 CM

x- X- x* T_ x- CM X- 1 x- o

in

21 1 o 1 CD 05 h- CM CD co

O CO in

m CD co 05 11 00 1 T““ 1 O CO CO in o in CO CD CO T— m 05 05 CO CO 1 1 co 1| O

CM 1| T*“ ,L TT" T- T— T— T- T- 1j O 1 1 1 0 1 05 1 CD in 05 o CO m CD CM CM co y— O o 1 m n

i2 11i1 Oo

CM 1111 q

qq

T— oT“

in co in co

T— -

in 05 05 CO

q 1111

N- 1 CO 1 m CD co o y— y- y_ O y— y^ oo CM 00 in 1 CM 1 o 1 o q q xr o in CO in CO m oo 00 CM co N- 1 CM 11

T— ymm y—

T

TM T— ” y— T— T— iii 11 0 1 0 1I 0o

E. 3 E j LL c c 1111

TOC0

i— -oc0

CO 11111111

Residential

Electricity

Distillate

Oil

LPG

Natural

Gas

Commercial

Electricity

Distillate

Oil

Residual

Oil

Natural

Gas

Steam

Coal

Industrial

Electricity

Distillate

Oil

Residual

Oil

Natural

Gas

Steam

Coal

T

ransportatic

Motor

Gasol iiiiiiiii <0p

CL5

29

'Indices

are

reported

for

years

2018-2022

to

accommodate a

planning/construction

period

of

up

to5

years.
Table

Cb-1.

Projected

average

fuel

price

escalation

rates

exclusive

of

general

price

inflation

by

end-use

sector

and

major

fuel

(percentage

change

compounded

annually) * 1 O co co CO o co CO CO o o CO CO co o CO 1 CO O CM CO CM CM CM CO CM CM CM CO CO CM CM CM in CM 1 CM

CM 0 CM 1 O 2 O 1 CM CM 1 o T—

T“ o T_ T_ T_ o T_

T“ T_T~ 111

T“

in o r- o C\J o S o

CM CM o o o o

co

qq

q

O 2 2 2 o o o o o CO ^ Tf CD O 2 2 2 T-‘ o o o o o (D M; M; M; in d i-^ i-^ >- o o

^3; o in 1 CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CM O CM CM CM CM o CM 1 CM 1 CO N h~ CD N- h- N CO CO h- n- in h~ 1 o 2 o CM CM 111 o r— T— o 1“ T“ 1“ o T— 1“ 111

T—

in o o o T~ 1 co 03 CM CO 00 in CO

N T— 00 Is- CM oo 00 1 CM 1 P; TZ ’"I ’"I CO P; N P; °0 03 T—

’“l 1 00 o 2 o CM CM 111 d T_ CM o T~ T~ CM T" o T“ CM c\i T

11

T_ ooo

CM

in 2 8CM

r— N- in CM co

O CO T— CO 00 CO

O CM co co T- T— r^ N- h- 03 T-| h- in o 2 T— CM o CM CM CM 1 o CM CM co I

in

h-CM /—

1 T— P- CO O P l— CM co CO T- 03 in p- o 1 — l''. CM 00 co r- in CO r^. 00 CM CO CO oCM 111 di CM CM CM di CO CM 1

CO CO CM

cm in Ol n O)

<j> 2 03

P" y— CM T— P" y— co y— 00 CO o CO co

p; in in in CO o q

qq

q r-; o o o 2 d T““ o CM p- TTM 2 o CM in CM

h~

m

in coo P3

LL

T3CPo

0) CO

COmg .tc q)

CO

c0 0E3PP o

0)

p

CL"OP

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00o *

(j op op

cop0 poo P £ o

4—* p op

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p E

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pk_ E 1 wn o

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p

4—» p 03

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p2 p 2o

0.

Q z wo LU

b OC z 0 c LU

Q cn z 0

Wa f- 5 5

30

Escalation

rates

are

reported

for

years

201

8-2022

to

accommodate a

planning/construction

period

ofup

to5

years.
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O CD CD CD

O o CD CO CO o CD 1 CD

CM i CD CM CM CM CD CM CM CM CD CD CM CM CM in CM 1 CM 2 S 11 o T“ •>- o T— T“* T"“ o T— y— 1 CM CM

as •o© 8 o oX

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T— y— T— y— 1 y— CM CM 1 1

in o O o r- 1 © a> CO

© r- CM N- CO CM o CD CD o r— 1 CM 1 CD CM in CM in CO r- co in CD o o eg co o 2 o CM CM 111 o T_ CM o T— i— CM T— d T— i

co CM T“ 111 o in O o o 1 CD ©• in T- 00 m in o CM N. co CD in T- in in 1 in CO Oi q O co r- cm q CM o CD N. h- o 2 o CM CM 111 o T— T— CM o CM CM co T~* o CM CO co o 1 CO 00 co in CM 00 co 00 co CD T— CD 00 y— 1 oo o 1 CO q T

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o *i

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CD3

LLac

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w

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31

‘Escalation

rates

are

reported

for

years

2018-2022

to

accommodate a

planning/construction

period

ofup

to5

years.
t}cII0c

.0

1/3 3o

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w

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Cl o 0 Q, 3 _ » 2

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k- 01 0 o>

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fi 1 o 0 0

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co

4-< c0oa

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€

C o § §

03 . - OC I 0 03 3 .2

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CM

O ^ o 2 o CM CM

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03 0 CO CO CO

O CO CO CO

O 0 co CO CD

O CO 1 CO

CO CM CM CM CO CM CM CM CO CO CM CM CM lO CM CM 0 T“ t- d r— t- T“ T- d T- T- T- T- >- 11 ac£

.8* 1 £ 1 CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CM

O CM CM CM CM 0 1 CO q h- N- CO N- h- CO CO N- 1^- N- m 0 O d y— y y— O y— y— y— y— O y— T— y— y CD a CM CM 03

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C 0 CD c 0 0 0 P

s>

n0 | 1

2005

h- CO CD CO 03 00 y—O CO co

m 03 "DC3

v*. p

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<05 11 4—O

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CM CM CO

CM

COdin

q

CM

q

CM

CM

CM

qd

qq COCO

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CM

a . 0' i2 En 1 0 (—

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O CO

O 1 t— 00 CO co T— f— CO O

CVJ 111 d CM CM CM

d in

hh~ 00 NinojooM03 03 CO 03 t— O CO to -M- CM

CM03

03

U303

03

Cf co

m 00 CM <0 CO

qqq co T-| coq

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N.NCM

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cOoOE

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co 2 o 0

CL i_ co o c ~ £l * 1 O 0 O 0 0 0 O O O 0 0 O O 0 0 1 O in 0 1 CO CO co CO 'cr m 1 'll" t- 0 CM 1 0 2 0 1 CM CM 1 d T— 1— d T— T— d T— r— 1 111

T“

CM

l'-

CM00

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r

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VJ00 qd

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CM

d

q

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q

co CM 1—

q

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q

co

q h~ 11j q

CM sz .0 1j CM CM 1I 0 £ 0 1 1 1

00

I"-

coo I _co4=

CLE3<0o

*d

0.5

32

Escalation

rates

are

reported

for

years

2018-2022

to

accommodate a

planning/construction

period

ofup

to5

years.
« 1 O CD CD CD

O CD CD CDO o CD CD CD

O CD

O CM 1 CD CM CM CM CD CM CM CM CD CD CM CM CM LO CM CM n CM 1 O 2 O 1 CM CM 1 O T_ 1 o ir- T“ T” d T" T“

CDCM 1

05

.CiI

cfa

05

.c§0

(fl <D

+—• 0l_cO*4^00 g 8

<D 1

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CD c O •-

'£ Cl) Q- o

<D Q. _0

0)

kO) ©

03

k_ £CD © O)

03 o D

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03 0)

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4—1 c©oa

tnv2S •M- t 0 I §

S’ S *<0 *=I 0 2 c -c o <s o a « 1 o

CD

O 1 CD

t— o CM O 2 O 11 d

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<f 'f 'f o o o o o

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O

'f 1 o rv CO "Cf 4— ID. iv CD 05 T- 05 h- 05 r- CM 1

> o 1 N 05 ID ’Cf co o q q 05 T- CO q q q q o

CM 111 o CM CM CM o ^f 'cf CM o T“ CO LO CO o CM

O

*f o i £ j

CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CM o CM CM CM CM o CM 1 CM

a

<-

cp i O

qq

qq CD r- p- CD CD Is" |v. fv LDq 1 q > oo d 1 o

CM oj o T“ o T_ 'r‘ T- o t- T_ 1j

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CD ca

O2 i

2005

4-4 1 LO CD CM CO CM CO 05 05 CM CM CO CO LO CO 1 CM

k-O

"OcD2 o

CtT C

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C\l T“

q

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qq

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rvd

CDo

LO

i— co T—CO

q

T~ T— 1111

CO

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CM CM 111 d 4 T— CM o CM CM co o o CM CM co o T— 111 CM

CO

rv oO©

JO£

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05

05 is 05

LO 4— 'Cf LD 'Cf co CO ID CM co |V 05 CO T- ID 1 co

CD CD CD

q CO

q

qq T~ y—_ ID LD

q o o 2 o 4- o CM T— o d CM ID CM o 2 sOc

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h_ 4—oo

0) 0

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TO

C/5 0

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55

05 <0o

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0.

33

‘Escalation

rates

are

reported

for

years

2018-2022

to

accommodate a

planning/construction

period

ofup

to5

years.
Table

Cb-5.

Projected

average

fuel

price

escalation

rates

exclusive

of

general

price

inflation

by

end-use

sector

and

major

fuel

(percentage

change

compounded

annually)

United

States

A

verage

* 1 O CO co CO o CO CO CO O o CO CO CO o CO O CM CO CM CM CM CO CM CM CM CO CO CM CM CM CO CM

CM 0 CM 1 O 2 O

CM CM 1 o 1 T“ o T— T— 1— b T— T— T— T— 0

CM

o

*2o £oCM oooo CO-’tf'M-'M; ooooo CD Tf (O Or-T— T- O T— T— 1— T- OOOOO o 0 M; M; •M; 0 •M; O 1— T- T— T— T- o

O 0 1 CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CM O CM CM CM CM O CM 1 CM

1 CO 1^. N; CO N- CO CO r"- N. CO 1 r- o 2 o CM CM 1

1 o 1

T“* O T“ r

~~ o 'r“ 1“~ 1 r" 'r"

1

0 o O /-s T“m

1 CO T- CM 0 0 T— h» 0 0 cn 0 03 0 T— o 1 0

M; 0 CO co 0 iq co 0 0 0 co NT 00 CM 1 co o 2 o CM CM

1

1

1 o CM o r— T_ CM o T" CO 1

T

1

1

1

T"

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o °

i 0 T— 0 0 T— o 0 o 0 0 0 0 0 i 0

i

j 0 N. 0 CM CO CO o 0 q cm O) CM 0 h- o 2 o

0 0 i

l b ,r” CM o CM 0 co 1— o CM CM "U- 1 T

~“

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CM

0 o

03 o O

i

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0 0 0

0

vf cn 2 o l

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T- 0 1

1

0 0 o T— 0 hT*| 0 o 0 CD N; 0

o co 0 CM T” b CO

l

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0 CM M; h- 1 N

0 Tt 0 1

1

1 MCM03

cn

iocn2 ! 0 T— •M- 0 0 03 0 o 03 M- 0 0

o 0 0 l

CM h- 0 T

N; 0

o T“ b o cm 0 T~~ 1o 0 0 CM

CMCO

CDO

<vo

LLo

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CCJ o

a) cn

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03 >s O

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Q>

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a) a:

CO

03 0

E3

03Ok_® CO Q. c3 0

03

LU Q

D

a>

if: 03 5

CT 03 Z

g >. ° b I O

2 f s « r o

E E = •g ^ E

§ ® I 'Si I

O LU Q DC Z 0

o J §

i f B

^ O

3 2 E

•55 2 *

•c« oE = "a a E .52 Q3 ca E

c LU Q DC Z 0

a> c c 1 I

&s

|i

34

Escalation

rates

are

reported

for

years

2018-2022

to

accommodate

a

planning/construction

period

ofup

to5

years.
Factors for updating appliance label values in compliance with the Energy Conservation

Mandatory Performance Standards for New Federal Residential Buildings (10 CFR 435)

Compliance with energy conservation performance standards for new Federal residential buildings

requires calculation of a building’s energy costs, including appliance costs. For this purpose, label

values for gas and electric water heaters are given in the Federal micro-computer program,

COSTSAFR, as $176 and $406 per year, respectively, in 1987 dollars, and for refrigerator/freezers,

as $61 per year in 1987 dollars. To adjust 1987 prices to today’s prices, multiply these 1987 label values by the factors below.

Table D. Factors for updating appliance label values

Fuel Factor

Gas 1.11

Electricity 1.13

35
PART II: TABLES FOR PRIVATE SECTOR LIFE-CYCLE COST

ANALYSIS

Projected average fuel price indices for private sector use

(Indices are given inclusive of four alternative rates of general price inflation)

This section presents in tables S-l through S-5 projected average fuel price indices for 4 fuels in the

residential sector and 5 fuels in the commercial sector for each of the years from 1993 through 2022.

They update tables originally published in the report, Comprehensive Guide for Least-Cost Energy

Decisions (NBS SP 709).

As a convenience for the user, the indices include the effect of four alternative, hypothetical rates of general price inflation: 0, 2.5, 5, and 7.5 percent. Selection of these rates is intended in no way

to suggest what actual rates might be. Use of the indices produce price estimates which are in current dollars, inclusive of general price inflation. Current dollar prices are needed when

discounting is performed with discount rates which include general price inflation. For the case of

0 percent inflation, the price indices in the S series of tables are identical to those in the counterpart

Ca table series. When there is no inflation, there is no difference between constant and current

dollars.

The indices based on inflation rates of 2.5, 5, and 7.5 percent allow the analyst to perform

evaluations based on the assumption of a positive rate of general price inflation that changes the

purchasing power of the dollar. Performing evaluations in current dollars is sometimes preferred

for private investment decisions, primarily because it facilitates the treatment of taxes.

The indices in tables S-l through S-5 are derived from the indices reported in tables Ca-1 through

Ca-5 by means of the following equation:

where Islcg

N

Is = Ic x (1 + g) N

,

index found in tables S-l through S-5;

index found in tables Ca-1 through Ca-5;

annual rate of general price inflation in decimal form; and

number of periods, in this case equal to the year of the index minus 1992.

Example of How to Use the Indices:

Suppose you wish to estimate the present value of energy savings in year 2000, and you expect an

annual inflation rate of 5 percent per year. Taking natural gas for residential use in Maryland,

estimate present value savings as follows: (1) multiply today’s price for residential natural gas in Maryland by the projected quantity of energy savings in the year 2000 to estimate savings in the year

2000 in today’s prices; (2) go to table S-3, find the year 2000 index for residential natural gas at a 5 percent inflation rate (1.74), and multiply the index by the result from (1) to determine savings in

36
the year 2000 in 2000 prices; and (3) discount the savings back to the present, using an SPW factor

based on a discount rate that reflects a 5 percent inflation rate. To obtain present value savings over

the entire study period, this calculation must be repeated for each year that there are savings, and

the results summed. (UPW* factors are not given for private sector use because of the large number

of tables required to cover potential discount rates that might be used by the analyst. Of course the

private sector analyst may use the UPW* factors provided in Part I, provided the analysis is performed in constant dollars, and the desired discount rate is either 4.0% or 10%. The

DISCOUNT program (version 3.2) included with BLCC can compute UPW* factors on a personal

computer for any discount rate (see page iv for information on DISCOUNT).)

For further explanation of the use of these indices, see NBS Special Publication 709, appendix B,

Part I.

The data in the tables which follow are reported for the 4 Census regions and the U.S. average.

Figure B-l presents a map showing the states corresponding to the 4 Census regions. The Census

regions do not include American Samoa, Canal Zone, Guam, Puerto Rico, Trust Territory of the

Pacific Islands, or the Virgin Islands. Analysts of Federal projects in these areas should use data

which are "reasonable under the circumstances," and may refer to the tables with U.S. average data

for guidance.

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are

reported

for

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2018-2022

to

accommodate a

planning/construction

period

ofup

to5

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S-1,

continued.

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average

fuel

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general

price

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2018-2022

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AO

Indices

are

reported

for

years

2018-2022

to

accommodate a

planning/construction

period

of

up

to5

years.
Table

S-2,

continued.

Projected

average

fuel

price

indices

with

assumed

general

price

inflation

rates

of

0,

2.5,

5,

and

7.5

percent,

by

end-use

sector

and

major

fuel.

Census

Region 2

(Illinois,

Indiana,

Iowa,

Kansas,

Michigan,

Minnesota,

Missouri,

Nebraska,

North

Dakota,

Ohio,

South

Dakota,

Wisconsin)

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‘Indices

are

reported

for

years

2018-2022

to

accommodate a

planning/construction

period

of

up

to5

years.
Table

S-3.

Projected

average

fuel

price

indices

with

assumed

general

price

inflation

rates

of

0,

2.5,

5,

and

7.5

percent,

by

end-use

sector

and

major

fuel.

Census

Region 3

(Alabama,

Arkansas,

Delaware,

District

of

Columbia,

Florida,

Georgia,

Kentucky,

Louisiana,

Maryland

Mississippi,

North

Carolina,

Oklahoma,

South

Carolina,

Tennessee,

Texas,

Virginia,

West

Virginia)

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42

•Indices

are

reported

for

years

2018-2022

to

accommodate a

planning/construction

period

of

up

to5

years.
Table

S-3,

continued.

Projected

average

fuel

price

indices

with

assumed

general

price

inflation

rates

of

0,

2.5,

5,

and

7.5

percent,

by

end-use

sector

and

major

fuel.

Census

Region 3

(Alabama,

Arkansas,

Delaware,

District

of

Columbia,

Florida,

Georgia,

Kentucky,

Louisiana,

Maryland

Mississippi,

North

Carolina,

Oklahoma,

South

Carolina,

Tennessee,

Texas,

Virginia,

West

Virginia) o

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'Indices

are

reported

for

years

2018-2022

to

accommodate a

planning/construction

period

of

up

to5

years.
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T— CVJ CVI CVJ CVl CVl CVl CVJ CVl CVJ CVJ CVJ CVJ CVI CVl CVl CVI CVJ CVI CVl CVl CVI CVl CVI «

44

Indices

are

reported

for

years

2018-2022

to

accommodate a

planning/construction

period

ofup

to5

years.
Table

S-4,

continued.

Projected

average

fuel

price

indices

with

assumed

general

price

inflation

rates

of

0,

2.5,

5,

and

7.5

percent,

by

end-use

sector

and

major

fuel.

Census

Region 4

(Alaska,

Arizona,

California,

Colorado,

Hawaii,

Idaho,

Montana,

Nevada,

New

Mexico,

Oregon,

Utah,

Washington,

Wyoming)

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45

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are

reported

for

years

2018-2022

to

accommodate a

planning/construction

period

of

up

to5

years.
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46

Indices

are

reported

for

years

2018-2022

to

accommodate a

planning/construction

period

of

up

to5

years.
Table

S-5,

continued.

Projected

average

fuel

price

indices

with

assumed

general

price

inflation

rates

of

0,

2.5,

5,

and

7.5

percent,

by

end-use

sector

and

major

fuel.

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States A

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47

‘Indices

are

reported

for

years

2018-2022

to

accommodate a

planning/construction

period

of

up

to5

years.
L
NIST-11 4A

(REV. 3-90) U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF STANDARDS AND TECHNOLOGY

BIBLIOGRAPHIC DATA SHEET

PUBLICATION OR REPORT NUMBER

NISTIR-85-32 73-7

2. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION REPORT NUMBER

PUBLICATION DATE October 1992

TITLE AND SUBTITLE Knergy Prices and Discount Factors for Life-Cycle Cost Analysis 1993:

to NIST Handbook 135 and NBS Special Publication 709.

Annual Supplement

S. AUTHOR(S)

Barbara C. Lippiatt

6 PERFORMING ORGANIZATION (IF JOINT OR OTHER THAN NIST, SEE INSTRUCTIONS)

U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF STANDARDS AND TECHNOLOGY

GAITHERSBURG, MD 20899

7. CONTRACT/GRANT NUMBER

8. TYPE OF REPORT AND PERIOD COVERED

Annual

SPONSORING ORGANIZATION NAME AND COMPLETE ADDRESS (STREET, CITY, STATE, ZIP) U.S. Department of Energy Federal Energy Management Program

Office of the Assistant Secretary Washington, D.C. 20585

for Conservation and Renewable Energy

10. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES

This report is comprised of energy price and discount factor tables which are annual

updates of tables referenced in NIST Handbook 135 and NBS Special Publication 709. Only

minor changes have been made to this previously WERB-approved material.

11. ABSTRACT (A 200-WORD OR LESS FACTUAL SUMMARY OF MOST SIGNIFICANT INFORMATION. IF DOCUMENT INCLUDES A SIGNIFICANT BIBLIOGRAPHY OR

UTERATURE SURVEY, MENTION IT HERE.)

This is the 1993 annual edition of energy prices and discount factors for performing lifecycle cost analyses of energy conservation and renewable energy projects. It supports the

Federal life-cycle costing methodology by updating the energy price projections and

discount factors that are described, explained, and illustrated in NIST Handbook 135 (HB 135)

It supports private-sector life-cycle cost analysis by updating the energy price indices

that are described, explained, and illustrated in NBS Special Publication 709 (SP 709). It

also supports the Energy Conservation Mandatory Performance Standards for New Federal

Residential Buildings (10 CFR 435) by providing a table of factors for updating appliance

label values.

12. KEY WORDS (6 TO 12 ENTRIES; ALPHABETICAL ORDER; CAPITAUZE ONLY PROPER NAMES; AND SEPARATE KEY WORDS BY SEMICOLONS)

average fuel prices; energy conservation; energy price forecasts; Federal Energy Mana

Program; life—cycle cost analysis; single present worth discount factors; uniform present

worth discount factors

13. AVAILABILITY UNUMITED

FOR OFFICIAL DISTRIBUTION. DO NOT RELEASE TO NATIONAL TECHNICAL INFORMATION SERVICE (NTIS).

X

X

ORDER FROM SUPERINTENDENT OF DOCUMENTS, U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE,

WASHINGTON, DC 20402. ORDER FROM NATIONAL TECHNICAL INFORMATION SERVICE (NTIS), SPRINGFIELD, VA 22161.

14. NUMBER OF PRINTED PAGES

62

15. PRICE A04

ELECTRONIC form

U.S. G.P.O. : 1992-31 1-891 : 6031