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Residential Furnaces and Boilers

ENGINEERING ANALYSIS

Mark Kendall

(kendall.mark@adlittle.com)

Arthur D. Little, Inc.

U.S. DOE Workshop on

Standards

for Residential Furnaces and

Boilers

July 17, 2001

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Eng ineering Analysis

Overview

The Engineerin g Analysis defines the relationship between equi pment

cost and eq ui pment efficiency for use in downstrea m analyses.

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Product Efficiency

A' 0-

Consumer Life-Cycle Cost

Manufactu rer I mpact

Employment Impact

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Eng ineering Analysis

aracteristics

DOE desires that the cost/efficiency relationships used in

the analysis possess certain characteristics.

® Credible

- based on acceptable estimation techniques

- incorporates and reconciles available data from multiple sources

® Transparent

- publicly accessible

- protects proprietary information

® Specific

- sufficient detail to reduce ambiguity or misinterpretation

- a single set of cost-efficiency estimates

- quantified uncertainties

® Timely

- available prior to scheduled deadlines

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Sou rces Efficiency to

There are several potential sources of efficiency/pe ormance information,

when applied to resi dential furnaces and boilers.

Primary advantage ... disadvantage

M anufacturers a nd Suppliers

Testing/Rating

Technical Literature

Engineering Estimates

Si m ulation Modeling

Prototyping

Direct source of

performance data

Detailed data is often

the most sensitive V

Objective and

accessible

Freely available

Efficient

Flexible

Direct observation

Can provide direct insight into performance of future

equipment under more stringent standards

Products are

concentrated near only

a few efficiency levels

Inconsisent topical

coverage

Scope depends on

personnel availability

Limited software

availability

Resource intensive

V

V

V

V

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Eng ineeri ng Analysis

Sources Manufacturing cost Data

Si milarly, there a re several potential sources of manufacturin g cost

data each wi th advantages and disadvantages.

Pri ma ry advantage ... disadvantage

Manufacturers and Suppliers Direct source of cost Detailed data is often

and market info sensitive

Teardown Analysis/

Engineering valuation

Direct product

observation

Products concentrated

near only a few

efficiency levels

List Prices Readily accessible

wholesale prices

Indicates overall value,

not efficiency-related

cost

Public to (e.g. Census) Freely available Highly aggregated

Can provide direct insight into future costs under

more stringent standards

V

V

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Eng ineeri ng Analysis

Proposed Approach

Based the Department's past experience using approaches s uch

as the sin Option and Efficiency Level approach, we propose to

combi ne data sources for this rulemaking.

® Gather publicly available information

® Select representative sample of products for analysis

® Work with manufacturers to identify appropriate samples for

teardown and to obtain design data for additional samples

® Conduct computer simulations and engineering estimates to

supplement the teardown analysis

® Obtain reviews by stakeholders

® Reconcile results and characterize uncertainty

Based on their advantages and disadvantages, are all these

steps necessary, or are others warranted?

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Engineering Analysis

Questions Related to Proposed Approach

Dependi ng on wh ich approach we take, there are so me questions to be

answered.

• What role should manufacturers and other stakeholders have in

providing data and reviewing assumptions, methods and results?

• How many teardowns should be conducted? Of which models?

® What simulation models or engineering estimates should be used?

-FURNACE

- condensing furnaces (e.g., CO DHX)

boilers

® If we draw on multiple sources of information, what guidelines

should we use for reconciling them and integrating them into a

single set of cost-efficiency data?

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