Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

OE ENERGY

MARKET SNAPSHOT

National – Data Through March 2016

Office of Enforcement

Federal Energy Regulatory Commission

April 2016
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

2015 State of the Marke

2
Market Overview

 Stable signals

• Increased gas supply led to lower gas prices, and 

lower electricity prices.

• Natural gas power generation exceeded that of co

seven months during 2015.

• Hydropower recovered in the West by April 2016.

 Challenges

• Declining oil and natural gas prices have put sign

stress on producers.

• Capacity markets in PJM and New England becam

revenue sources while the generation mix continuchange.
NG Prices Fall Across 

Spot Natural Gas Prices 2015 Average ($/

Source: Derived from Platts data
2015 Prices of Crude and 

Indexed Products Dec

Source: Derived from EIA data

$0.00$5.00

$10.00$15.00$20.00$25.00

Spot Price ($/MMBtu) Brent Sakai LNG UKN
U.S. NG Productio

Plateaus in 2015

0

20406080

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 201

Production Rate (bcfd)

Southeast (onshore) GOM MidcoMidwest Rockies SouthwTexas (onshore) Northeast

Source: Derived from BentekEnergy data
Total U.S. Natural G

Demand - All Secto

Source: Derived from BentekEnergy data

 -

 20 40 60 80

 100 120 140

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct 

Bcfd

2010 - 2014 Range 
On-Peak Day-Ahea

2015 Electric Spot Pr

Fall

Sources: NYMEX and CME Clearport market data

$

= Average 2015 Spot Price

% Decrease from 2014

NP 15

$36

-31%

Palo Verde

$27

-35%

MidColumbia

$26

-32%

Indiana 

Hub

$33

-30%

SPP

$29

-35%

ERCOT

North

$30

-32%

PJM West

$43

-32%

M

Into 

Southern

$31

-27%
Capacity and Ener

gy P

Diverge in New Engla

 New England ISO (Mass Hub)

PJM

• Average Day-Ahead LMP (2013-15): -25.35%• Forward Capacity Auction Clearing Price for 2018-19 period relative to 

period: +203%

• Forward Capacity Auction Clearing Price for 2019-2020 period relative 

period: -26% 

 PJM (Western Hub)

• Average Day-Ahead LMP (2013-15): -6.02%• Base Residual Auction Clearing Price for Base Capacity 2018-19 perio

2016-17 period (Rest of RTO): +152.6%

• Base Residual Auction Clearing Price for Capacity Performance in the 

Sources: Derived from PJM and period relative to the 2016-2017 period (Rest of RTO): +23.1%ISO-NE data
Electricity Deman

Slightly Down in 20

Source: Derived from EIA data

0

200400600800

1,0001,2001,4001,600

Annual Sales in Millions of MWHs Resident

CommercIndustria
Net Metering and Distri

Energy Resources Grow

Source: Derived from EIA Form 826 data

0

10,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,000

JanAprJulOctJanAprJulOctJanAprJulOctJanAprJulOctJ

2011 2012 2013 2014 

TOTAL ELECTRIC ENERGY SOLDBACK TO THE UTILITY FOR ALLSTATES SERVED (MWh)
DR Revenues Have Gr

Through Capacity Mar

Source: Derived 

from PJM and 

ISO-NE

0

100200300400500600700

2016/2017 2017/2018 2018/2

Total Demand Response 

Revenues from Capacity 

Payments (Million USD)

PJM ISO-NE
Renewables Outpu

Continues to Grow in CA

and MISO

Source: Derived from MISO and CAISO data
2015 Hydropower w

Below Average in We

Source: Derived from EIA data

0

5000

100001500020000

January

February

March

April

May

June

July

August

September

October

November

million MWh

2010

‐14 Avg.

2015
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov

National Slides

15
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov

16

NOAA April 2016 Through June 2016 Outlook
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov

Pitts

burgh

Calgary

City Location

Chicago

N

Oklahoma

City

Los Dallas

Angeles

Sacra

mento Denver

Portland

Houston New 

Orleans 

Vancouver

This YearLast Year5 Year Average

Cumulative HDDs by City

Nov 2015– March 2016

Source: Bloomberg Weather (daily data summed quarterly)

Atla

Updated

17

3,4,3,

838

1,1671,093

3,9955,1714,936

2,6003,0863,037

1,5862,1711,957

810

1,3321,148

3,0313,1153,469

4,4434,3654,514

1,9311,7821,979

2,8672,7103,176

1,9841,4702,013

740414800

2,02,72,5

3,7575,1444,673
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov

Pitts

burgh

Calgary

City Location

Chicago

N

Oklahoma

City

Los Dallas

Angeles

Sacra

mento Denver

Portland

Houston New 

Orleans 

Vancouver

This YearLast Year5 Year Average

Cumulative CDDs by City

Apr 2015– Oct 2015

Source: Bloomberg Weather (daily data summed quarterly)

Atla

Updated

18

111

942669885

3,4692,9443,211

1,1201,0231,179

1,9842,0722,282

3,1472,9063,238

3,2102,9543,166

827244

848681926

766347

755630441

1,5661,5231,248

1,6321,5791,163

1,81,71,8
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov

$ = Average 2015 Spot Price% Decrease from 2014 = % increase from 2012

NP 15

$36

-31% Palo Verde

$27

-35%

MidColumbia

$26

-32%

Indiana 

Hub

$33

-30%

SPP

$29

-35%

ERCOT

North

$30

-32%

PJM West

$43

-32%

Into 

Southern

$31

-27%

2015 Spot Power Prices ($/MW
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov

Columbia

TCO

AECO 

Pricing PointBOLD – This YearGreen – % increase from previous yearRed – % decrease from previous year

ChicagoCitygate

Tran

Z6-

NGPL

Tex-Okla

El Paso

Permian

SoCal 

Border

PG&E

Citygate

CIG

HSC Henry Hub

Spot Natural Gas Prices Average ($/M

Nov 2015– March 2016

Source: ICE Updated

20

$2.

‐66

$2.63

‐43%

$1.97

‐38%

$2.04

‐42%

$1.90

‐38% $1.88

‐37%

$1.95

‐37%

$1.52

‐41%

$1.86

‐38%

$2.37

‐32%

$2.04

‐35%
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov

Columbia

TCO

Pricing PointBOLD – This yearGreen – % increase from previous yearRed – % decrease from previous year

ChicagoCitygate

Tra

Z6

NGPL

Tex-Okla

El Paso

Permian

SoCal 

Border

PG&E

Citygate

CIG

HSC Henry Hub

F

Spot Average Natural Gas Trad

Volumes (MMBtus)

Nov 2015– March 2016

Source: ICE Updated

21

5

13

28,000

436%

194,801

‐47%

500,875

‐11%

334,334

‐32%

223,607

‐31%

33,727

‐31%

46,267

14%

528,208

‐27%

232,819

‐43%
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

U.S. NG Supply and Demand 

Nov 2014 – Mar 2015 vs Nov 2015 – Mar 2016

National Natural Gas Market Overview: U.S. Supply and Consumption

Note: Balance includes all amounts not attributable to other categories.Source: Derived from Bentek Energy data

22

0

102030405060708090

100

2014/2015 2015/2016

Average Daily Volume (Bcfd)

US Natural Gas Supply

LNG Imports

Net Pipeline Imports

Net Dry Gas

Production

-11.7%

-8.8%

1.1%

Total Change in Supply -0.1%

0

102030405060708090

100

2014/2015 

Average Daily Volume (Bcfd)

US Natural Gas D

Power 

Generation

Total Change in Dema

Industrial

Residential/ 

Commercial
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

National Natural Gas Market Overview: Canadian Imports

Regional Imports from Canada

Source: Derived from Bentek Energy data

(2)

02468

1012

Bcfd

Northwest NeMidwest Net INortheast Net 

23
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

Total U.S. Natural Gas Demand All Sectors

National Natural Gas Market Overview: Total US Gas Demand

Source: Derived from Bentek Energy data, derived from interstate pipeline flow and modeled data.

0

20406080

100120140

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov De

Bcfd

2011-15 Range 2016

24
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

U.S. Natural Gas Consumption for Power Generat

National Natural Gas Market Overview: NG Consumption for Power Generation

Source: Derived from Bentek Energy data

0

5,000

10,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,00040,000

MMcfd

 2011 - 2015 Range2016

25
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

EIA National Storage Inventories

National Natural Gas Market Overview: Natural Gas Storage Inventory

Source: Derived from Bloomberg Data

Notes:

0

500

1,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,500

Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb 

Storage (Bcf)

5 Year Range 2015-2016 2014-2

26
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

EIA Regional Storage Inventories

National Natural Gas Market Overview: Natural Gas Storage Inventory

Source: Derived from Bloomberg Data

Notes:

Up

27

0

200400600800

1,0001,200

EAST

0

500

1,0001,500 WEST

0

100200300

Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 

5 Year Range 2015‐2016 20

PRODUCING

0

100200300400500 PACIFIC

0

500

1,0001,500

SOUTH CE
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

Monthly U.S. Dry Gas Production – Lower 48 Stat

National Natural Gas Market Overview: Monthly U.S. Dry Gas Production

Note: Prior to July 2010, chart was derived from a combination of EIA and Bentek Energy data

Source: Derived from Bentek Energy data

1020304050607080

Bcfd

Dry Production

28
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

Rigs by Type

National Natural Gas Market Overview: Rig Count by Type

Source: Derived from Bloomberg dataNotes:

0

200400600800

1,0001,2001,4001,6001,800

Apr‐14

Jul‐14

Oct‐14

Jan‐15

Apr‐15

Jul‐15

Oct‐15

Baker Hughes Rig Count (Rigs)

Oil Rigs Gas Rigs

29
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

Gas vs Coal

National Natural Gas Market Overview: Rig Count

Source: Derived from Bloomberg dataNotes:

$0$1$2$3$4$5$6

Apr‐14

Jun‐14

Aug‐14

Oct‐14

Dec‐14

Feb‐15

Apr‐15

Jun‐15

Aug‐15

Oct‐15

Dec‐15

Feb‐16

Gas and Converted Coal Price ($/MMBtu) Nymex Henry Hub Central App Coal WTI Crude Oil

30
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

Daily Gas Sendout from Existing U.S. LNG Facilit

National Natural Gas Market Overview: LNG Market-Daily Gas Sendout

Notes: Everett data includes flows onto the AGT and TGP interstate lines, plus estimates of flows to the Mystic 7 power plant, Keyspan Boston 

Gas, and LNG trucked out of the terminal. Excludes flows to the Freeport LNG which flows via intrastate pipelines and flows to the Mystic 8 and 9 power plants.Source: Derived from Bentek Energy data

31

0

500

1,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,5005,000

Daily LNG Sendout (MMcfd)

Sabine PassLake CharlesGolden PassFreeportNortheast GaExcelerateCameronElba IslandCove PointEverett (Gros

0

1,0002,0003,0004,000 Monthly Average
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

Source: Waterborne Energy, Inc. Data in $US/MMBtuNote: Includes information and Data supplied by IHS Global Inc. and its affiliates (“IHS”); Copyright (publication year) all rights reserved.

Landed prices are the monthly average of weekly trades from the prior month.

World LNG Estimated March 2016 Landed P

National Natural Gas Market Overview: World LNG Landed Prices

Cove Point

$4.50

India

$11.55

UK

$8.75

Spain

$9.05

Belgium

$8.84

Korea

$12.40

Lake Charles

$3.96 Altamira $4.60

Cove Point

$4.40

India

$11.55

UK

$8.75

Spain

$9.15

Belgium

$8.99

Korea

$13.10

Lake Charles

$3.93 Altamira $4.57

Cove Point

$4.50

India

$11.55

UK

$8.75

Spain

$9.05

Belgium

$8.84

Korea

$12.40

Lake Charles

$3.96 Altamira $4.60

Cove Point

India

UK

Spain

Belgium

Korea

Lake Charles

Altamira

Rio de Janeiro

Bahia Blanca

Canaport

C

32

$ 4.52

$ 4.55

$ 4.27

$ 2.41 $1.37

$ 4.38 $ 

$ 4.35 $4.02

$ 4.57

$3.90

$1.74
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

Historical and Future World Gas Prices

National Natural Gas Market Overview: LNG Competitive Price Hubs

Source: Derived from Bloomberg data Notes:

$0$2$4$6$8

$10$12$14$16$18

Apr‐14

Jun‐14

Aug‐14

Oct‐14

Dec‐14

Feb‐15

Apr‐15

Jun‐15

Aug‐15

Oct‐15

Dec‐15

Feb‐16

Apr‐16

Jun‐16

Aug‐16

O6

$/MMBtu

Henry Hub TZ6 NYAlgonquin Citygates UKNBPJapanese LNG Spot Price Futures Prices

33
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

National Natural Gas Market Overview: WTI vs Brent Oil Price

Source: Derived from Bloomberg data 

WTI vs Brent Crude Oil Price

$0

$20$40$60$80

$100$120$140

Oil Prices($/Barrel)

WtI Oil Price Brent Crude Oil Pric

34
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

National Natural Gas Market Overview: Nymex Futures Curve

Source: Derived from Bloomberg data 

Nymex Futures Curves

$0.00$0.50$1.00$1.50$2.00$2.50$3.00$3.50$4.00

May‐16

Jul‐16

Sep‐16

Nov‐16

Jan‐17

Mar‐17

May‐17

Jul‐17

Sep‐17

Nov‐17

Jan‐18

Mar‐18

M18

Nymex Futures Curves($/MMBtu) 3/31/2015 9/29/2015

2/29/2016 3/30/2016

35
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov

Infrastructure Report

36
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov

Natural Gas Highlights
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov

Electric Generation Highli
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov

Electric Transmission High
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov

Office of Energy Projects Energy Infrastructure U

http://www.ferc.gov/legal/staff-reports.asp

(see “Energy Infrastructure” tab) 

Infrastructure Report

40