Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

OE ENERGY

MARKET SNAPSHOT

East Version – March 2016 Data

Office of Enforcement

Federal Energy Regulatory Commission

April 2016
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

Natural Gas and Fuels MEast
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

Northeast Day-Ahead Prices

Averaged Annually/ Seasonally

Northeast Natural Gas Market: Annual Hub Prices

Source: Derived from ICE data Notes:

Updated

3

Average Day

Ahead Prices

($/MMBtu)

Algonquin

Citygates

Transco

Zone 6

NY

Transco

Zone 6

Non‐NY

Columb

Applach

Annual 6.95 5.11 4.03 3

Summer 4.24 3.92 3.84 3Winter 2013/2014 15.76 11.40 9.66 4

Annual 7.95 6.22 5.98 4Summer 3.50 2.89 3.53 4Winter 2014/2015 9.17 6.68 5.25 3Annual 4.71 3.77 3.33 2Summer 2.51 2.25 2.53 2Winter 2015/2016 3.18 2.26 2.11 1Annual 3.46 2.55 2.22 1Summer 3.38 1.78 1.74 1Winter 2016/2017

2013 2014 2015 2016 YTD
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

Northeast Day-Ahead Prices

Northeast Natural Gas Market: Day-Ahead Prices

Source: Derived from ICE data Notes:

Update

$0$5

$10$15$20$25$30$35$40

Day-Ahead Prices ($/MMBtu)

Transco Zone 6 NY Transco Z6 NoColumbia TCO Pool Algonquin City 

$0

$10$20$30

2013 2014 2

30 Day Movi

4
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

Northeast Monthly Average Basis Value To Henry H

Northeast Natural Gas Market: Average Basis to Henry Hub

Source: Derived from ICE data Notes:

Updated

-$5.00

$0.00$5.00

$10.00$15.00$20.00$25.00$30.00

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

2014 2015 

Day-Ahead Basis Averaged Monthly 

($/MMBtu)

Transco Zone 6 NY Basis Transco Z6 NoColumbia TCO Pool Basis Algonquin City

5

A
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

Northeast Day-Ahead Basis

Northeast Natural Gas Market: Yearly Hub Prices

Source: Derived from ICE data Notes:

Updated

-$5

$0$5

$10$15$20$25$30$35$40

Day-Ahead Basis ($/MMBtu)

Transco Zone 6 NY Basis Transco Z6 Non-NY Columbia TCO Pool Basis Algonquin City Gat

$0$5

$10$15

2013 2014 

30D Mov

6

A
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

Daily Northeast Natural Gas Demand All Sector

Northeast Natural Gas Market: Daily Demand

Source: Derived from Bentek Energy dataNote: Northeast is defined as Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Connecticut, New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Delaware, Maryland, Virginia, West Virginia, Ohio and Kentucky 

05

1015202530354045

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov D

Bcfd

2011-2015 Range 2016

7
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

Northeast Natural Gas Consumption for Power Gene

Northeast Natural Gas Market Overview: NG Consumption for Power Generation

Source: Derived from Bentek Energy dataNote: Northeast is defined as Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Connecticut, New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Delaware, Maryland, Virginia, West Virginia, Ohio and Kentucky 

0

1,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,0009,000

MMcfd

 2011 - 2015 Range2016

8
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

Southeast Day-Ahead Prices

Averaged Annually/Seasonally

Southeast Natural Gas Market: Annual Hub Prices

Source: Derived from ICE data Notes:

Updat

Average Day

Ahead Prices

($/MMBtu) FGT Z3 Tetco‐M1

Transco

St 65

Transco

Zone 5 

Annual 3.77 3.66 3.71 4.0

Summer 3.83 3.68 3.74 3.8

Winter 2013/2014 4.62 4.61 4.60 9.4

Annual 4.34 4.28 4.30 6.3

Summer 4.21 4.12 4.16 4.2

Winter 2014/2015 3.21 3.14 3.19 5.5

Annual 2.62 2.53 2.58 3.5

Summer 2.69 2.58 2.65 2.7

Winter 2015/2016 1.99 1.91 1.95 2.2

Annual 1.98 1.91 1.94 2.4

Summer 1.87 1.82 1.87 1.9

Winter 2016/2017

2013 2014 2015 2016 YTD

9
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

Southeast Day-Ahead Prices

Southeast Natural Gas Market: Day-Ahead Prices

Source: Derived from ICE data Notes:

$0$5

$10$15$20$25$30$35$40$45

Spot Day-Ahead Prices ($/MMBtu)

Tetco-M1 FGT Z3 Transco Transco Zone 5 Henry Hub

$0$5

$10$15$20

2013 2014 2015 

30 Day Moving A

10
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

Southeast Day-Ahead Basis

Southeast Natural Gas Market: Day Ahead Basis To Henry Hub

Source: Derived from ICE data Notes:

11

-$5

$0$5

$10$15$20$25$30$35$40

Day Ahead Basis ($/MMBtu)

Tetco-M1 Basis FGT Z3 BasTransco St 65 Basis Transco Zon

‐$10

$0

$10$20$30 30D Movin
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

Southeast Monthly Average Basis Value To Henry 

Southeast Natural Gas Market: Average Basis to Henry Hub

Source: Derived from ICE data Notes:

Updated

 $(2.00)

 $-

 $2.00 $4.00 $6.00 $8.00

 $10.00

4 5 6 7 8 9 101112 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101

2014 2015 

Day-Ahead Prices Averaged Monthly 

($/MMBtu)

FGT Z3 Basis Tetco-M1 BaTransco St 65 Basis Transco Zon

12
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

Daily Southeast Natural Gas Demand All Sector

Southeast Natural Gas Market: Daily Demand

Source: Derived from Bentek Energy dataNote: Southeast is defined as North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, Arkansas, and Tennessee.

05

1015202530

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov D

Bcfd

2011-2015 Range 2016

13
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

Southeast Natural Gas Consumption for Power Gene

Southeast Natural Gas Market: NG Consumption for Power Generation

Source: Derived from Bentek Energy dataNote: Southeast is defined as North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, Arkansas, and Tennessee.

0

2,0004,0006,0008,000

10,00012,000

MMcfd

 2011 - 2015 Range2016

14
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

Electricity MarketsEast

15
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

PJM Real Time Prices—Two Year History 

Northeast Electricity Market: PJM Real Time Prices

16

‐100

0

100200300400500600700800900

Weighted Daily Avg ($/MWh)

Prior Year Last 30 days PJM Western Hub Daily Avg ReLast 30 days PJM Eastern Hub Daily Avg Real Time Price was $28.69. Last 30 days PJM Dayton Hub Daily Avg ReaLast 30 days PJM Dominion Hub Daily Avg Real Time Price was $30.64.

Source: Genscape via Bloomberg
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

PJM System Daily Average Load —Two Year Histo

Northeast Electricity Market: PJM Average Daily Load

17

0

20406080

100120140160

Feb-13

Mar-13

Apr-13

May-13

Jun-13

Jul-13

Aug-13

Sep-13

Oct-13

Nov-13

Dec-13

Jan-14

Feb-14

Mar-14

Apr-14

May-14

Jun-14

Jul-14

Aug-14

Sep-14

Oct-14

N14

Weighted Daily Avg Load (GW)

Prior Year Last 30 days average on peak load was 110 GW. Last 30 days average off peak load 

Source: Genscape via Bloomberg
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

PJM Western Hub Peak RT Futures

Northeast Electricity Market: PJM Western Hub Peak RT Futures

18

$0

$10$20$30$40$50$60$70$80

Futures Price ($/MWh)

Current open interest for next month is 328Yesterday's forward curve range was $31 to One week ago the forward curve range was One month ago the forward curve range wSix months ago the forward curve range wa

Source: NYMEX Clear
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

PJM On-Peak Spark & Dark Spreads – One Year His

Northeast Electricity Market: PJM On-Peak Spark & Dark Spreads

PJM On-Peak Spark Spread minus Dark Spread

‐100

‐50

0

50

100150200250300

Spark& Dark Spreads ($/MWh)

Last 30 Days Avg On‐Peak Spark Spread was $26.76 per MWh. Last 30 Days Avg On‐Peak Dark Spread w

-20-15-10

-5

05

101520

Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Au

Difference in Spreads ($/MWh)

NG more profitable.(Last 30 day avg $4.37 per MWh.) Coal more profitable.

Sources (all via Bloomberg): Electricity Price

Assumptions:Electricity Price = PJM Western Hub Peak DA

NG Price Point = TETCO M3 spot

NG Heat Rate = 7000 mmBtu/kWh

Coal Type = Central Appalacian

Coal Heat Content = 12000 Btu/lbCoal Heat Rate = 10000 mmBtu/kWh
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

NYISO Real Time Prices—Two Year History 

Northeast Electricity Market: NYISO Real Time Prices

20

‐50

50

150250350450550

Weighted Daily Avg ($/MWh)

Prior YearLast 30 days Long Island Daily Avg Real Time Price was $35.96.Last 30 days NYC Daily Avg Real Time Price was $27.09.

Source: Genscape via Bloomberg
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

NYISO System Daily Average Load —Two Year Hist

Northeast Electricity Market: NYISO Average Daily Load

21

05

10152025303540

Feb-13

Mar-13

Apr-13

May-13

Jun-13

Jul-13

Aug-13

Sep-13

Oct-13

Nov-13

Dec-13

Jan-14

Feb-14

Mar-14

Apr-14

May-14

Jun-14

Jul-14

Aug-14

Sep-14

Oct-14

Weighted Daily Avg Load (GW)

Prior Year Last 30 days average on peak load was 21 GW. Last 30 days average off peak load 

Source: Genscape via Bloomberg
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

NYISO Hudson Valley Zone Peak DA Futures

Northeast Electricity Market: NYISO Hudson Valley Zone Peak DA Futures

22

$0

$20$40$60$80

$100$120

Oct‐15

Dec‐15

Feb‐16

Apr‐16

Jun‐16

Aug‐16

Oct‐16

Dec‐16

Feb‐17

Apr‐17

Jun‐17

Aug‐17

Oct‐17

Dec‐17

Feb‐18

Apr‐18

Jun‐18

Aug‐18

Oct‐18

Dec‐18

Feb‐19

Apr‐19

Jun‐19

Aug‐19

Oct‐19

D19

Futures Price ($/MWh)

Current open interest for next month is 900 conYesterday's forward curve range was $32 to $86One week ago the forward curve range was $32 One month ago the forward curve range was $3Six months ago the forward curve range was $3

Source: NYMEX Clearport via 
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

NYISO NYC On-Peak Spark & Dark Spreads – One Year 

Northeast Electricity Market: NYISO NYC On-Peak Spark & Dark Spreads

23

NYISO NYC On-Peak Spark minus Dark Spread

‐150‐100

‐50

0

50

100150200250

Spark& Dark Spreads ($/MWh)

Last 30 Days Avg On‐Peak Spark Spread was $18.85 per MWh. Last 30 Days Avg On‐Peak Dark Spread was $

-100

-80-60-40-20

0

20

Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 

Difference in Spreads ($/MWh)

NG more profitable.(Last 30 day avg $1.29 per MWh.) Coal more profitable.

Assumptions:Electricity Price = NY

NG Price Point = Tran

NG Heat Rate = 7000 Coal Type = Central A

Coal Heat Content = 

Coal Heat Rate = 100

Sources (all via Bloomberg): Electricity Price: Genscape;; Coal Price: NYMEX 
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

NYISO Capital Zone On-Peak Spark & Dark Spreads – One 

Northeast Electricity Market: NYISO Capital Zone On-Peak Spark & Dark Spreads

24

NYISO Capital Zone On-Peak Spark minus Dark Sp

‐100

‐50

0

50

100150200250

Spark& Dark Spreads ($/MWh)

Last 30 Days Avg On‐Peak Spark Spread was $10.82 per MWh. Last 30 Days Avg On‐Peak Dark Spread was $

-100

-80-60-40-20

0

20

Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 

Difference in Spreads ($/MWh)

NG more profitable. Coal more profitable.(Last 30 day avg $0.23 per MWh.)

Assumptions:Electricity Price = Capita

NG Price Point = Iroquo

NG Heat Rate = 7000 mCoal Type = Central App

Coal Heat Content = 12Coal Heat Rate = 10000 

Sources (all via Bloomberg): Electricity Price: Ge
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

ISO-NE Real Time Prices—Two Year History 

Northeast Electricity Market: ISO-NE Real Time Prices

25

‐50

0

50

100150200250300350400

Weighted Daily Avg ($/MWh)

Prior Year Last 30 days NE Mass/Boston Daily Avg Real TimLast 30 days Connecticut Zone Daily Avg Real Time Price was $31.05. Last 30 days Internal Hub Daily Avg Real Time PLast 30 days Maine Zone Avg Real Time Price was $30.75.

Source: Genscape via Bloomberg
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

ISO-NE System Daily Average Load —Two Year His

Northeast Electricity Market: ISO-NE Average Daily Load

26

05

1015202530

Oct-12

Nov-12

Dec-12

Jan-13

Feb-13

Mar-13

Apr-13

May-13

Jun-13

Jul-13

Aug-13

Sep-13

Oct-13

Nov-13

Dec-13

Jan-14

Feb-14

Mar-14

Apr-14

May-14

Jun-14

Weighted Daily Avg Load (GW)

Prior Year Last 30 days average on peak load was 17 GW. Last 30 days average off peak load 

Source: Genscape via Bloomberg
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

ISO-NE Internal Hub Peak DA Futures

Northeast Electricity Market: ISO-NE Internal Hub Peak DA Futures

27

$0

$20$40$60$80

$100$120$140

Futures Price ($/MWh)

Current open interest for next month is 2340 coYesterday's forward curve range was $32 to $9One week ago the forward curve range was $3One month ago the forward curve range was $Six months ago the forward curve range was $3

Source: NYMEX Clearport v
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

Northeast Electricity Market: ISO-NE On-Peak Spark & Dark Spreads

28

ISO-NE On-Peak Spark & Dark Spreads – One Year H

ISO-NE On-Peak Spark minus Dark Spread

‐100

‐50

0

50

100150200250

Spark& Dark Spreads ($/MWh)

Last 30 Days Avg On‐Peak Spark Spread was $16.71 per MWh. Last 30 Days Avg On‐Peak Dark Spread was $

-150-130-110

-90-70-50-30-10

1030

Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 

Difference in Spreads ($/MWh)

NG more profitable. Coal more profitable.(Last 30 day avg $0.86 per MWh.)

Assumptions:Electricity Price = Internal Hu

NG Price Point = Algonquin B

NG Heat Rate = 7000 mmBtu

Coal Type = Central Appalacia

Coal Heat Content = 12000 BCoal Heat Rate = 10000 mmB

Sources (all via Bloomberg): Electricity Price: Ge
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

29

Northeast Electricity Market: New England Generation Mix

New England Generation Mix

0

2000400060008000

100001200014000

Monthly Generation (GWh)

Gas Generation in Jul '15 was 5345 Nuclear Generation in Jul '15 was 3Coal Generation in Jul '15 was 173 Hydro Generation in Jul '15 was 60Othr Renew Generation in Jul '15 wOil Generation in Jul '15 was 40 GW

Total Generation in Jul '15 was 103

States: CT, ME, MA, NH, RI, VT
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

30

Northeast Electricity Market: Mid Atlantic Generation Mix

Mid Atlantic Generation Mix

0

5000

100001500020000250003000035000400004500050000

Monthly Generation (GWh)

Gas Generation in Jul '15 was 1390Coal Generation in Jul '15 was 652Nuclear Generation in Jul '15 was Hydro Generation in Jul '15 was 23Othr Renew Generation in Jul '15 wOil Generation in Jul '15 was 59 GW

Total Generation in Jul '15 was 376

States: NJ, NY, PA
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

31

Northeast Electricity Market: South Atlantic Generation Mix

South Atlantic Generation Mix

0

5000

100001500020000250003000035000400004500050000

Monthly Generation (GWh)

Gas Generation in Jul '15 waCoal Generation in Jul '15 waNuclear Generation in Jul '15 Hydro Generation in Jul '15 wOthr Renew Generation in JuOil Generation in Jul '15 was Total Generation in Jul '15 w

States: NJ, NY, PA