Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight

OE ENERGY

MARKET SNAPSHOT

National – Data Through April 2018

Office of Enforcement

Federal Energy Regulatory Commission

May 2018
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight

2018 Summer Assessment

2
May 2018

Summer 2018 Energy Market 

and Reliability Assessment
Electric and Natural Gas Markets Appear 

Ready for a Potentially Warm Summer

• Summer temperatures are expected to be above average.

• Reserve margins are expected to be adequate in most 

regions.

• Natural gas demand from power generators may set record 

highs this summer.

• Natural gas production could also set record highs.

• Performance requirements will apply to a majority of capacity 

resources in ISO New England and PJM.
NOAA Forecasts Above-Normal 

Temperatures for Summer 2018

Source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association
Reserve Margins Adequate in Most 

NERC Regions

Source: 2018 NERC Summer Reliability Assessment Data

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

ERCOT FRCC MISO NPCC PJM SERC SPP WECC

US

Reserve Margin (%)

NERC regions 

Reserve Margin Anticipated
Diverse Generating Capacity Available 

During On-Peak Load

Source: 2017 NERC LTRA Data, On-Peak Forecast Capacity for Summer 2018

West

Texas

East
Natural Gas Storage Levels Expected 

to Remain Within Five Year Range

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Storage Inventories (Bcf)

5 Year Range 2017

2018 Actual 2018 EIA Forecast
Natural Gas Futures Prices Are 

Lower Across All Regions

Source: Intercontinental Exchange, Inc.

Basis futures show prices for July and August 2018 as taken on March 23, 2018.

Comparison is to July and August 2017 basis futures; however cut off date may vary depending on availability.

ICE Summer 2018 

Futures

$/MMBtu 

<=1.5

0

>=2.8

0
Narrow Coal-Natural Gas Spread to 

Fuel Diverse Generation

Sources: U.S. Energy Information Administration, CME Group, Bentek Energy

 -

 10

 20

 30

 40

$0

$1

$2

$3

$4

$5

$6

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Power Burn Henry Hub CAPP Coal

$/MMBt Bc

Forecasfd

t
Congested Nodes Identify Areas of 

Market Stress in Summer 2017

Source: YesEnergy.
Performance Requirements Will Apply to 

Majority of Capacity Resources in ISO New 

England and PJM

• PJM and ISO New England are adopting performance 

requirements in their capacity markets.

• PJM and ISO New England assess penalties when providers fail 

to perform in specified hours; give rewards to over-performers 

in those hours.

• No Performance Assessment Hours have been declared in PJM 

since the program began.

• ISO New England Pay for Performance rules start June 1.
CAISO Depends on Natural Gas and nonHydro Renewable Generation in Dry Years

-3,000

2,000

7,000

12,000

1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

GWh

Hydro

Source: ABB Velocity Suite

Note: Summer months in grey
Conclusions

• Capacity and fuel availability appear adequate in most areas.

• ERCOT expects tight capacity conditions, but has mapped out 

procedures to maintain grid reliability.

• Lower-than-usual hydro production will affect the Western 

generation mix and may put upward pressure on energy 

prices in California.

• Adequate natural gas supplies in most regions will support 

anticipated gas generators’ needs.
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight

Fundamentals

15
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight 16

NOAA May 2018 Through July 2018 Outlook
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight

2181

Pitts

burgh

Boston

Calgary

City Location

Chicago

NYC

Oklahoma

City

Los Dallas

Angeles

Sacra

mento Denver

Portland

Houston New 

Orleans Miami

Vancouver

2018

2017

2011 - 2016

Cumulative HDDs by City

April 2018

Source: Bloomberg Weather (daily data summed)

Atlanta

Updated

17

May-2018

 -

 -

 -

 573

 254

 316

 30

 -

 13

 680

 332

 383

 340

 151

 150

 131

 25

 56

 43

 2

 23

 522

 416

 368

 517

 484

 511

 267

 262

 202

 346

 428

 271

 197

 187

 83

 472

 268

 284

 589

 420

 415

 62

 15

 45

 201

 60

 108
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight

2181

Pitts

burgh

Boston

Calgary

City Location

Chicago

NYC

Oklahoma

City

Los Dallas

Angeles

Sacra

mento Denver

Portland

Houston New 

Orleans Miami

Vancouver

2018

2017

2011 - 2016

Cumulative CDDs by City

April 2018

Source: Bloomberg Weather (daily data summed)

Atlanta

Updated

18

May-2018

 -

 -

 2

 6

 -

 1

 341

 351

 305

 -

 -

 6

 83

 134

 121

 0

 -

 14

 8

 10

 27

 35

 51

 77

 121

 70

 111

 -

 -

 -

 -

 -

 -

 -

 -

 -

 -

 -

 -

 -

 10

 14

 22

 130

 18

 17

 2

 26
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight

$ = Average 2018 Spot Price*

% Decrease from 2017

*Average On-Peak Day-Ahead for April 2018

SPP Price is an average of the North and South Hubs 

Source: RTO/ISO and ICE Data

NP 15

Palo Verde

Mid- Columbia Indiana 

Hub

SPP

ERCOT

North

PJM West

NYISO ZJ

Mass Hub

SOCO

2018 April Spot Power Prices ($/MWh)

$18.0

21.9%

$28.63

7.2%

$25.35

-7.0%

$35.85

1.4%

$25.59

-18.6%

$26.95

9.9%

$29.85

-6.5%

$53.01

60.4%

$40.23

1.6%

$39.31

14.3%

21
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight

2181

Columbia

TCO

Algonquin

Citygate

AECO 

Pricing Point

BOLD – This Year

Green – % increase from 

previous year

Red – % decrease from 

previous year

Chicago

Citygate

Transco

Z6-NY

NGPL

Tex-Okla

El Paso

Permian

SoCal 

Border

PG&E

Citygate

CIG

HSC Henry 

Hub

FGT-Z3

Spot Natural Gas Prices Average ($/MMBtu)

April 2018

Source: Bloomberg Platts Data Updated

20

May-2018

$5.10

62% $ 2.79

-1%

$2.97

-11%

$2.48

-9%

$2.76

-11%

$2.75

-7%

$2.20

-21% $1.67

-38%

$2.83

-10%

$1.33

-50%

$1.95

-28%

$2.68

-19%

$3.07

-2%
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight

U.S. NG Supply and Demand 

May 2016 – April 2017 vs May 2017 – April 2018

National Natural Gas Market Overview: U.S. Supply and Consumption

Note: Balance includes all amounts not attributable to other categories.

Source: Derived from Bentek Energy data 2163

21

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2016/2017 2017/2018

US Natural Gas Supply

LNG Imports

Net Pipeline 

Imports

Net Dry Gas

Production

39.1%

10.1%

8.7%

Total Change in Supply: 4.8%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2016/2017 2017/2018

Average Daily Volume (Bcfd)

US Natural Gas Demand

Power 

Generation

Total Change in Demand:

Industrial

4.9%

Residential/ 

Commercial

1.0%

3.4%

10.1%

Updated May-2018
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight

National Natural Gas Market Overview: Canadian Imports

Regional Imports from Canada

Source: Derived from Bentek Energy data

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Jan-11

May-11

Sep-11

Jan-12

May-12

Sep-12

Jan-13

May-13

Sep-13

Jan-14

May-14

Sep-14

Jan-15

May-15

Sep-15

Jan-16

May-16

Sep-16

Jan-17

May-17

Sep-17

Jan-18

Bcfd

Northwest Net Imports

Midwest Net Imports

Northeast Net Imports

22

Updated May-2018
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight

Total U.S. Natural Gas Demand All Sectors

National Natural Gas Market Overview: Total US Gas Demand

Source: Derived from Bentek Energy data, derived from interstate pipeline flow and modeled data. 20009

 -

 20

 40

 60

 80

 100

 120

 140

 160

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Bcfd

2013-17 Range 2018

23

Updated May-2018
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight

U.S. Natural Gas Consumption for Power Generation

National Natural Gas Market Overview: NG Consumption for Power Generation

Source: Derived from Bentek Energy data 20024

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

MMcfd

 2013 - 2017 Range

2018

24

Updated May-2018
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight

EIA National Storage Inventories

National Natural Gas Market Overview: Natural Gas Storage Inventory

Source: Derived from Bloomberg Data

Notes:

Updated

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar

Storage (Bcf)

5 Year Range 2018-2019 2017-2018

May-2018

25
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight

EIA Regional Storage Inventories

National Natural Gas Market Overview: Natural Gas Storage Inventory

Source: Derived from Bloomberg Data

Notes:

Updated May-2018

26

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900 1,000

EAST 0

500

1,000

1,500

WEST

0

100

200

300

Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar

5 Year Range 2018-2019 2017-2018

PRODUCING

0

100

200

300

400

500

PACIFIC

0

500

1,000

1,500

SOUTH CENTRAL
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight

Monthly U.S. Dry Gas Production – Lower 48 States

National Natural Gas Market Overview: Monthly U.S. Dry Gas Production

Note: Prior to July 2010, chart was derived from a combination of EIA and Bentek Energy data

Source: Derived from Bentek Energy data 20021

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Bcfd

Dry Production

27

Updated May-2018
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight

Rigs by Type

National Natural Gas Market Overview: Rig Count by Type

Source: Derived from Bloomberg data

Notes:

Updated

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

Apr-16

Jul-16

Oct-16

Jan-17

Apr-17

Jul-17

Oct-17

Jan-18

Apr-18

Baker Hughes Rig Count (Rigs)

Oil Rigs Gas Rigs

28

May-2018
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight

Competing Fuels

National Natural Gas Market Overview: Competing Fuels

Source: Derived from Bloomberg data

Notes:

Updated

$0

$2

$4

$6

$8

$10

$12

$0.0

$0.5

$1.0

$1.5

$2.0

$2.5

$3.0

$3.5

$4.0

$4.5

Apr-16

Jun-16

Aug-16

Oct-16

Dec-16

Feb-17

Apr-17

Jun-17

Aug-17

Oct-17

Dec-17

Feb-18

Apr-18

Converted Oil Price ($/MMBtu) 

Gas and Converted Coal Price ($/MMBtu)

Nymex Henry Hub

Big Sandy Barge (Low Sulfur Coal)

WTI Crude Oil

May-2018

29
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight

Daily Gas Sendout from Existing U.S. LNG Facilities

National Natural Gas Market Overview: LNG Market-Daily Gas Sendout

Notes: Everett data includes flows onto the AGT and TGP interstate lines, plus estimates of flows to the Mystic 7 power plant, Keyspan Boston 

Gas, and LNG trucked out of the terminal. Excludes flows to the Freeport LNG which flows via intrastate pipelines and flows to the Mystic 8 and 

9 power plants.

Source: Derived from Bentek Energy data 3007

30

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

Daily LNG Sendout (MMcfd)

Sabine Pass

Lake Charles

Golden Pass

Freeport

Northeast Gateway

Excelerate

Cameron

Elba Island

Cove Point

Everett (Grossed)

Neptune

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000 Monthly Average

Updated May-2018
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight

Source: Waterborne Energy, Inc. Data in $US/MMBtu

Note: Includesinformation and Data supplied by IHS Global Inc. and its affiliates (“IHS”); Copyright (publication year) all rights reserved.

Landed prices are the monthly average of weekly trades from the prior month.

World LNG Estimated Landed Prices: April 2018 

National Natural Gas Market Overview: World LNG Landed Prices

Cove Point

$4.50

India

$11.55

UK

$8.75

Spain

$9.05

Belgium

$8.84

Japan

$12.40

Korea

$12.40

Lake Charles

$3.96 Altamira

$4.60

Cove Point

$4.40

India

$11.55

UK

$8.75

Spain

$9.15

Belgium

$8.99

Japan

$13.10

Korea

$13.10

Lake Charles

$3.93 Altamira

$4.57

Cove Point

$4.50

India

$11.55

UK

$8.75

Spain

$9.05

Belgium

$8.84

Japan

$12.40

Korea

$12.40

Lake Charles

$3.96 Altamira

$4.60

Cove Point

India

UK

Spain

Belgium

Korea

Lake Charles

Altamira

Bahia Blanca

Canaport

China

31

Updated May-2018

$2.87

$ 7.38 $ 7.28

$ 7.39

$ 7.04

$ 2.64

$6.81

$ 7.09

$ 7.14

$ 7.29

$2.60
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight

Historical and World Gas Futures Prices

National Natural Gas Market Overview: LNG Competitive Price Hubs

Source: Derived from Bloomberg data 

Notes:

Updated May-2018

$0

$2

$4

$6

$8

$10

$12

$14

$16

$18

$20

May-16

Jul-16

Sep-16

Nov-16

Jan-17

Mar-17

May-17

Jul-17

Sep-17

Nov-17

Jan-18

Mar-18

May-18

Jul-18

Sep-18

Nov-18

Jan-19

Mar-19

May-19

$/MMBtu

Henry Hub TZ6 NY

Algonquin Citygates UKNBP

Japanese LNG Spot Price Futures Prices

32
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight

National Natural Gas Market Overview: WTI vs Brent Oil Price

Source: Derived from Bloomberg data Updated

WTI vs Brent Crude Oil Price

May-2018

$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

$80

Oil Prices ($/Barrel)

WTI Oil Price Brent Crude Oil Price

33
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight

National Natural Gas Market Overview: Nymex Futures Curve

Source: Derived from Bloomberg data Updated

Nymex Futures Curves

$2.50

$2.60

$2.70

$2.80

$2.90

$3.00

$3.10

$3.20

$3.30

Jun-18 Dec-18 Jun-19 Dec-19

Nymex Futures Curves ($/MMBtu)

5/3/2017 4-5-2018 12-3-2017 5-3-2018

May-2018

34
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight

Infrastructure Report

35

Office of Energy Projects Energy 

Infrastructure Update

http://www.ferc.gov/legal/staff-reports.asp

(see “Energy Infrastructure” tab) 
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight

Natural Gas Highlights

39
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight

Electric Generation Highlights

40
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight

Electric Transmission Highlights

41
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight

Installed Generating 

Capacity

39
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight

Proposed Additions

40