Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

OE ENERGY

MARKET SNAPSHOT

National – Data Through March 2015

Office of Enforcement

Federal Energy Regulatory Commission

April 2015
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

● 2014 State of the Mark● National Slides● Infrastructure Report

2

Agenda
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov

2014 State of the MarkeReport

3
State of the Market

Highlights

 Extreme temperatures early in 2014 had lasting impac Natural gas prices decline through the year, while oil p Natural gas production reaches new records and stora Northeast natural gas prices disconnect from Henry H Organized markets continue to evolve: California ISO 

SPP begins DAY 2 Market, and Entergy joins MISO

 RTOs and utilities adjust to changing resource mix Markets performed well in early 2015 despite extreme 
Pricing Point

BOLD – 2014 priceGreen – % increase from previous yearRed – % decrease from previous year

Source: Derived from Ventyx, ICE Data & Platts data

Columbia

TCO

AECO 

ChicagoCitygate

NGPL 

Tex-Okla

El Paso

Permian

SoCal 

Border

PG&E

Citygate

CIG

NW 

Sumas

HSC Henry Hub 

$4.33

16%

$4.82

21%

$4.49

23%

$4.34

14%

$4.28

17%

$4.45

20%

$1.25

42%

$4.25

15%

$4.38

17%

$4.40

18%

$6.34

63%

Average NG Spot Pr

Higher in 2014
U.S. NG Demand 

Sets New Record 

0

20406080

100120140160

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct N

Bcfd

2009-2013 Range 201

Source: Derived from BentekEnergy data
Record Injection

Replenished NG Sto

Source: Derived from Energy Information Administration data

0

500

1,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,500

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20

Bcf
Source: Derived 

from BentekEnergy data

 -

 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

Bcfd

CONVENTIONAL

NG From Shale Dri

2014 Production Rec
On-Peak Day-Ahe

2014 Electric Spot P

Source: Derived from SNL and PLATTS data

NP 15

$52

17% Palo Verde

$42

13%

MidColumbia

$39

3%

Indiana 

Hub

$48

26%

SPP

$40

18%

ERCOT

North

$45

20%

PJM West

$63

38%

Into 

Southern

$42 $ = Average 2014 Spot Price 22% % Increase from 2013
Electricity Deman

Flat in 2014

Source: Derived from EIA data

800,000900,000

1,000,0001,100,0001,200,0001,300,0001,400,0001,500,000

Annual Electricity Sales 

(Million KWh) Res

ComIndu
Extreme Weather Te

Energy Markets in 2

Source: The University of Illinois WW2010 Project
Market Readiness 

Moderates Weather Im

Source: Derived from PJM data

0

5,000

10,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,00040,00045,00050,000

1/7/2014 2/20/2015

Forced Outage (MW)

Forced Outages in PJM

Forced Outage(MW)Forced Outage 
Markets Perform w

During 2015 Wint

Source: Derived from ISO data

0

50

100150200250

Jan. Feb. Jan. 

2014 201

$/MWh On-Peak Average RT 

Prices

IS0-NE ISO-N NYISO 
Winter 2015 NG Pri

Lower than in 201

Source: Derived from Intercontinental Exchange data

$0$5

$10$15$20$25$30

Jan Feb Jan 

2014 2015

$/MMBtu

SoCal ChicagoTransco Z6 Non NY Transco ZAlgonquin
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov

http://www.ferc.gov/market-oversight/reports-analyses/st

som.pdf

2015 State of the Markets Report

15
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov

National Slides

16
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov

17

NOAA Apr 2015 Through Jun 2015 Outlook
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov

Pitts

burgh

Calgary

City Location

Chicago

N

Oklahoma

City

Los Dallas

Angeles

Sacra

mento Denver

Portland

Houston New 

Orleans 

Vancouver

This YearLast Year5 Year Average

Cumulative HDDs by City

November 2014 – March 201

Source: Bloomberg Weather (summed daily)

Atla

Updated

18

4,

43

2,7

2926

5,144

51034555

1,177

14831177

1,332

15411205

2,171

23711996

3,08

5

34793106

4,36

5

46874591

3,0

7

9

38433497

1,766

21091984

414544860

1,47

0

18412160

2,71

0

33843250

5,171

58344859
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov

Pitts

burgh

Calgary

City Location

Chicago

N

Oklahoma

City

Los Dallas

Angeles

Sacra

mento Denver

Portland

Houston New 

Orleans 

Vancouver

This YearLast Year5 Year Average

Cumulative CDDs by City

November 2014 – March 20

Source: Bloomberg Weather (summed daily)

Atla

Updated

19

002

209125201

25

18

00

10

1

0

1326

633999

132150240

000

000

000

000

1

0

01

2

4

3

106

75
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov

20

Spot Power Prices 

Average Monthly ($/MWh)

March
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov

Columbia

TCO

AECO 

Pricing PointBOLD – This YearGreen – % increase from previous yearRed – % decrease from previous year

ChicagoCitygate

Tran

Z6-

NGPL

Tex-Okla

El Paso

Permian

SoCal 

Border

PG&E

Citygate

CIG

NW 

Sumas

HSC Henry Hub

Spot Natural Gas Prices 

Average ($/MMBtu)

November 2014 – March 20

Source: ICE Updated

$6.

‐44

$4.63

20%

$3.21

‐38%

$3.34

‐60%

$3.08

‐39% $3.01

‐44%

$3.11

‐40%

$2.58

‐48%

$3.00

‐46%

$4.85

1%

$3.49

‐38%

$3.15

‐43%

21
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov

Columbia

TCO

Pricing PointBOLD – This yearGreen – % increase from previous yearRed – % decrease from previous year

ChicagoCitygate

Tra

Z6

NGPL

Tex-Okla

El Paso

Permian

SoCal 

Border

PG&E

Citygate

CIG

NW 

Sumas

HSC Henry Hub

F

Spot Natural Gas Trading Volu

Average (MMBtus)

November 2014 – March 201

Source: ICE Updated

6

‐

14

6,187

‐18%

338,534

15%

584,577

‐14%

448,583

42%

321,090

6%

63,786

‐46%

46,775

‐3%

56,473

2%

706,160

7%

320,120

33%

22
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

U.S. NG Supply and Demand Year to Date - Mar 2014 vs

National Natural Gas Market Overview: U.S. Supply and Consumption

Note: Balance includes all amounts not attributable to other categories.Source: Derived from Bentek Energy data 

0

102030405060708090

100

2014 2015

Average Daily Volume (Bcfd)

US Natural Gas Supply

0

102030405060708090

100

2014 

Average Daily Volume (Bcfd)

US Natural Gas D

Total Change in Demand

Power 

Generation

Net Dry Gas

Production

Net Pipeline

Imports

9.1%

8.9%

139.8%

5.9%

LNG Imports

Industrial

Total Change in Supply -

Residential/ 

Commercial

23
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

National Natural Gas Market Overview: Canadian Imports

Regional Imports from Canada

Source: Derived from Bentek Energy data 

(2)

02468

1012

Bcfd

Northwest NeMidwest Net INortheast Net 

24
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

Total U.S. Natural Gas Demand All Sectors

National Natural Gas Market Overview: Total US Gas Demand

Source: Derived from Bentek Energy data, derived from interstate pipeline flow and modeled data. 

0

20406080

100120140160

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov De

Bcfd

2009-2014 Range 2015

25
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

U.S. Natural Gas Consumption for Power Generat

National Natural Gas Market Overview: NG Consumption for Power Generation

Source: Derived from Bentek Energy data 

0

5,000

10,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,00040,000

MMcfd

2009-13 Range2015

26
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

EIA National Storage Inventories by Region

National Natural Gas Market Overview: Natural Gas Storage Inventory

Source: Derived from Bloomberg Data

Notes:

0

500

1,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,500

U.S Storage Levels (Bcf)

East Storage LevelWest Storage LevelProduction Area Storage Level5 Year Average

27
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

EIA National Storage Inventories

National Natural Gas Market Overview: Natural Gas Storage Inventory

Source: Derived from Bloomberg Data

Notes:

0

500

1,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,500

Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb 

Storage (Bcf)

5 Year Range 2013-2014 2014-2

28
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

EIA Regional Storage Inventories

National Natural Gas Market Overview: Natural Gas Storage Inventory

Source: Derived from Bloomberg Data

Notes:

29

0

500

1,0001,5002,0002,500

EAST

0

100200300400500600 WEST

0

500

1,0001,500

Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 

5 Year Range 2013‐2014 20

PRODUCING
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

Monthly U.S. Dry Gas Production – Lower 48 Stat

National Natural Gas Market Overview: Monthly U.S. Dry Gas Production

Note: Prior to July 2010, chart was derived from a combination of EIA and Bentek Energy data

Source: Derived from Bentek Energy data 

1020304050607080

Bcfd

Dry Production

30
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

Rigs by Type

National Natural Gas Market Overview: Rig Count by Type

Source: Derived from Bloomberg dataNotes:

0

200400600800

1,0001,2001,4001,6001,800

Apr‐11

Jul‐11

Oct‐11

Jan‐12

Apr‐12

Jul‐12

Oct‐12

Jan‐13

Apr‐13

Jul‐13

Oct‐13

Jan‐14

Apr‐14

Jl14

Baker Hughes Rig Count (Rigs)

Oil Rigs Gas Rigs

31
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

Gas vs Coal

National Natural Gas Market Overview: Rig Count

Source: Derived from Bloomberg dataNotes:

$0$1$2$3$4$5$6$7

Apr‐13

Jun‐13

Aug‐13

Oct‐13

Dec‐13

Feb‐14

Apr‐14

Jun‐14

Aug‐14

Oct‐14

Dec‐14

Feb‐15

Gas and Converted Coal Price ($/MMBtu) Nymex Henry Hub (Left Axis) Central App Coal (Left Axis) GSCI Commodity Index

32
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

Daily Gas Sendout from Existing U.S. LNG Facilit

National Natural Gas Market Overview: LNG Market-Daily Gas Sendout

Notes: Everett data includes flows onto the AGT and TGP interstate lines, plus estimates of flows to the Mystic 7 power plant, Keyspan Boston 

Gas, and LNG trucked out of the terminal. Excludes flows to the Freeport LNG which flows via intrastate pipelines and flows to the Mystic 8 and 9 power plants.Source: Derived from Bentek Energy data 

33

0

500

1,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,5005,000

Daily LNG Sendout (MMcfd)

Sabine PassLake CharlesGolden PassFreeportNortheast GaExcelerateCameronElba IslandCove PointEverett (Gros

0

1,0002,0003,0004,000 Monthly Average
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

Source: Waterborne Energy, Inc. Data in $US/MMBtuNote: Includes information and Data supplied by IHS Global Inc. and its affiliates (“IHS”); Copyright (publication year) all rights reserved.

World LNG Estimated March 2015 Landed P

Updated 

National Natural Gas Market Overview: World LNG Landed Prices

Cove Point

$4.50

India

$11.55

UK

$8.75

Spain

$9.05

Belgium

$8.84

Korea

$12.40

Lake Charles

$3.96 Altamira $4.60

Cove Point

$4.40

India

$11.55

UK

$8.75

Spain

$9.15

Belgium

$8.99

Korea

$13.10

Lake Charles

$3.93 Altamira $4.57

Cove Point

$4.50

India

$11.55

UK

$8.75

Spain

$9.05

Belgium

$8.84

Korea

$12.40

Lake Charles

$3.96 Altamira $4.60

Cove Point

India

UK

Spain

Belgium

Korea

Lake Charles

Altamira

Rio de Janeiro

Bahia Blanca

Canaport

C

34

$ 7.38

$ 7.52

$ 6.80

$ 2.70

$2.65

$ 7.35 $ 

$ 7.45 $6.38

$ 7.28

$6.62

$2.50
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

Historical and Future World Gas Prices

National Natural Gas Market Overview: LNG Competitive Price Hubs

Source: Derived from Bloomberg data Notes:

$0$5

$10$15$20$25$30

Apr‐13

Jun‐13

Aug‐13

Oct‐13

Dec‐13

Feb‐14

Apr‐14

Jun‐14

Aug‐14

Oct‐14

Dec‐14

Feb‐15

Apr‐15

Jun‐15

Aug‐15

O15

$/MMBtu

Henry Hub TZ6 NYAlgonquin Citygates UKNBPJapanese LNG Spot Price Futures Prices

35
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

National Natural Gas Market Overview: WTI vs Brent Oil Price

Source: Derived from Bloomberg data 

WTI vs Brent Crude Oil Price

$0

$20$40$60$80

$100$120$140

Oil Prices($/Barrel)

WtI Oil Price Brent Crude Oil Pric

36
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

National Natural Gas Market Overview: Nymex Futures Curve

Source: Derived from Bloomberg data 

Nymex Futures Curves

$0.00$0.50$1.00$1.50$2.00$2.50$3.00$3.50$4.00$4.50$5.00

May‐15

Aug‐15

Nov‐15

Feb‐16

May‐16

Aug‐16

Nov‐16

Feb‐17

May‐17

Aug‐17

Nymex Futures Curves($/MMBtu) 4/6/2014 10/6/2014

3/8/2015 4/8/2015

37
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov

Infrastructure Report

38
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov

39

Natural Gas Activities in March 2015

Status No. of Projects Storage Capacity (Bcf) Deliverability (MMcf/d) Capacity (MMcf/d) Miles of Pipeline C

Pipeline 

Placed in Service 3 529.0 21.7 

Certificated 5 864.0 101.4 

Proposed 13 12,409.0 684.2 

Storage 

Placed in Service 1 1.7 0.0 

Certificated 0 0.0 0.0 

Proposed 0 0.0 0.0 

LNG (Import & Export) 

Placed in Service 0 0 0 

Certificated 

(Import/Export) 0 0 0 

Proposed (Export) 4 37.90 6,320 

Natural Gas Highlights 
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov

40

Electric Generation Highli

New Generation In-Service (New Build and Expansion)

March 2015 January – March 2015 Cumulative January – M

Cumu

Primary Fuel Type No. of Units Installed Capacity (MW) No. of Units Installed Capacity (MW) No. of Units InstCoal 0 0 0 0 0 Natural Gas 2 176 5 302 7 Nuclear 0 0 0 0 0 Oil 0 0 0 0 1 Water 1 21 1 21 2 Wind 1 98 8 647 16 Biomass 0 0 0 0 20 Geothermal Steam 0 0 1 45 3 Solar 0 0 30 214 69 Waste Heat 0 0 0 0 1 Other 0 0 0 0 3 Total 4 295 45 1,229 122 
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov

41

Electric Transmission High

Transmission Projects Completed Proposed Transmission 

In-Service by March 

Voltage 

(kV) 

March 

2015 

March 

2014 

January – March 

2015 Cumulative 

January – December 

2014 Cumulative 

High Probability 

of Completion 

Line Length (miles) 

≤230 5.0 44.0 5.0 642.9 4,050.3 7

345 0.0 64.8 58.7 1,547.8 3,318.7 5500 0.0 0.0 0.0 62.0 3,175.3 9

Total 

U.S. 5.0 108.8 63.7 2,252.7 10,544.3 2

Transmission Projects with a High Probability of 

being completed by March 2017 New Transmission Projects by Vo
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov

Office of Energy Projects Energy Infrastructure U

http://www.ferc.gov/legal/staff-reports.asp

(see “Energy Infrastructure” tab) 

Infrastructure Report

42