Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

OE ENERGY

MARKET SNAPSHOT

West Version – September 2014 Data

Office of Enforcement

Federal Energy Regulatory Commission

November 2014
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov

2015 Winter Assessment

http://www.ferc.gov/market-oversight/reports-analyses/mk

16-14-A-3.pdf

2014/2015 Winter Asse

2
Item No. A-3

October 16, 2014

Winter 2014-15 

Energy Market 

Assessment
Developments

• Record natural gas production• Increased natural gas-electric 

coordination

• Enhanced reliability measures

Challenges• Winter futures price

substantially in som

• Below average natu

storage

• Lower coal stockpile• Regional pipeline re• Increased reliance ogas for electricity

Markets Cautious a

Winter Approache
Source: Derived from ICE data.

Note: Prices through September 30, 2014. 

Higher Natural Gas Prices Across Most of the Country Pricing Point

BOLD – 30 Day Average PriceGreen – % increase from previous year

Red – % decrease from previous year

$3.93

5

$3.63

84

$3.77

16

$4.46

12

$4.10

8

$3.91

7

$3.75

6

$T

$3.82

6

$3.74

9

AECO 

Chicago

NGPL Midcon

El Paso

SoCal 

PG&E

CIG

Sumas

HSC

$3.90

14

Henry Hub 
Source: NOAA National Weather Service

Uncertain Winter Forecast
Mid-Atlantic* Gas Dem

at Historical High Lev

Source: Derived from GPCM data. *Mid-Atlantic also includes KY and OH

ResCommPowerBurnIndustrialOtherSeasonal Normal

 -

 5.0

 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0

Bcfd

Winter 13/14max: 25.7 Bcfd

Winter 1max: 26
Fuel Diversity Helps N

England Gas Deman

Source: Derived from GPCM data. 

ResCommPowerBurnIndustrialSeasonal Normal
0.0

1.02.03.04.05.0

U.S Storage Levels (Tcf) 

Source: Derived from EIA data and GPCM data.

Storage Levels:Production AreaWest StorageEast Storage5-yr Avg. 

Record Storage Inject

Help Close the Stora

Shortfall 
Source: Derived from staff analysis.

2014 Pipeline Expans

Target Northeast 

Production

ConstructionOnline

NY PA OH IL IN MS 

Northeast Midwest So

Destination

1.41.21.00.80.60.40.2

0

Bcfd
 Volatility in electricity prices in th

Northeast from increased dependon natural gas

 California may face electricity sup

issues, such as increased ramp requirements

Winter Electric 

Market Challenge
Coal Stockpiles Decl

Source: Derived from Velocity Suite, based on EIA data.

0

102030405060708090

Jan-10

Jun-10

Nov-10

Apr -11

Sep-11

Feb-12

Jul-12

Dec-12

Million TonsPRB Central App Other Illinois

Basin
Source: Derived from 

ICE and Nymex data.^January and February 2015 as of October 1 2014*January and February 2014 as of October 1 2013*SP-15 2014 prices from October 31 2013*Power Note: Prices in $/MWh . Peak financial swap prices.*Gas Note: Prices in $/MMBtu. Regional futures natural gas prices are the sum of the Henry Hub futures contract price plus the regional basis futures. 

P

o

w

e

r

G

a

s

Location 2015^ 

Algonquin (New England) $21.45 

Transco Zone

6 non

‐NY (Mid

‐

Atlantic) $9.09 

Dominion South (Marcellus) $2.85 

Southern California Border $4.30 

Henry Hub $4.08 

Massachussets Hub $183.88 

PJM Western Hub $72.60 

Northwest (Mid

‐C) $37.73 

Southern California (SP

‐15) $46.13 

Futures Prices Eleva
 Market Rule Changes

 Improve communication between na

gas pipelines and electric transmissioperators

 Increased winterization and testing 

generators

Actions in Respons

to Last Winter
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov

Office of Energy Projects Energy Infrastructure U

http://www.ferc.gov/legal/staff-reports.asp

(see “Energy Infrastructure” tab) 

Infrastructure Report

15
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov

National Slides

16
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov

17

NOAA Nov 2014 Through Jan 2015 Outlook
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov

Pitts

burgh

Calgary

City Location

Chicago

N

Oklahoma

City

Los Dallas

Angeles

Sacra

mento Denver

Portland

Houston New 

Orleans 

Vancouver

This YearLast Year5 Year Average

Cumulative HDDs by City 

Source: Bloomberg Weather

Atla

Updated

9

7

100

86

000

894370

1

2

4

12

100

000

17

9

127143

9

4

8781

668275

1

8

8151

062

000

September

18
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov

Pitts

burgh

Calgary

City Location

Chicago

N

Oklahoma

City

Los Dallas

Angeles

Sacra

mento Denver

Portland

Houston New 

Orleans 

Vancouver

This YearLast Year5 Year Average

Cumulative CDDs by City 

Source: Bloomberg Weather

Atla

Updated

September

111

718687

500573531

1

2

1

174111

311

374299

466591474

481543495

377

8

7

140101

023

969281

277

199249

344

267274

292525

19
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov

Columbia

TCO

AECO 

Pricing PointBOLD – This YearGreen – % increase from previous yearRed – % decrease from previous year

ChicagoCitygate

Tran

Z6-

NGPL

Tex-Okla

El Paso

Permian

SoCal 

Border

PG&E

Citygate

CIG

NW 

Sumas

HSC Henry Hub

Spot Natural Gas Prices 

Average ($/MMBtu)

Source: ICE Updated

September

$2.

‐40

$2.9

5

‐33%

$3.90

8%

$3.9

4

7%

$3.8

5

7%

$3.82

9%

$3.92

8%

$3.62

80%

$3.71

9%

$4.

8

5

46%

$4.4

3

11%

$4.1

0

10%

20
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov

Columbia

TCO

Pricing PointBOLD – This yearGreen – % increase from previous yearRed – % decrease from previous year

ChicagoCitygate

Tra

Z6

NGPL

Tex-Okla

El Paso

Permian

SoCal 

Border

PG&E

Citygate

CIG

NW 

Sumas

HSC Henry Hub

F

Spot Natural Gas Trading Volu

Average (MMBtus)

Source: ICE Updated

September

7

‐

9

15,180 ‐7%

1

91,860

‐57%

198,03

7

‐48%

251,503

‐17%

304,92

7

‐19%

36,80

7

‐24%

54,493 ‐15%

5

6,47

3

40%

5

24,28

7

11%

515,

6

4

0

52%

21
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

U.S. NG Supply and Demand Year to Date - Sep 2013 vs

National Natural Gas Market Overview: U.S. Supply and Consumption

Note: Balance includes all amounts not attributable to other categories.Source: Derived from Bentek Energy data 

0

102030405060708090

100

2013 2014

Average Daily Volume (Bcfd)

US Natural Gas Supply

0

102030405060708090

100

2013 

Average Daily Volume (Bcfd)

US Natural Gas D

Total Change in Demand

Power 

Generation

Net Dry Gas

Production

Net Pipeline

Imports

3.6%

4.2%

-55.2%

-1.0%

LNG Imports

Industrial

Total Change in Supply 3

Residential/ 

Commercial

22
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

National Natural Gas Market Overview: Canadian Imports

Regional Imports from Canada

Source: Derived from Bentek Energy data 

(2)

02468

1012

Bcfd

Northwest NeMidwest Net INortheast Net 

23
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

Total U.S. Natural Gas Demand All Sectors

National Natural Gas Market Overview: Total US Gas Demand

Source: Derived from Bentek Energy data, derived from interstate pipeline flow and modeled data. 

0

20406080

100120140160

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov De

Bcfd

2009-2013 Ran2014

24
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

U.S. Natural Gas Consumption for Power Generat

National Natural Gas Market Overview: NG Consumption for Power Generation

Source: Derived from Bentek Energy data 

0

5,000

10,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,00040,000

MMcfd

2009-13 Range2014

25
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

EIA National Storage Inventories by Region

National Natural Gas Market Overview: Natural Gas Storage Inventory

Source: Derived from Bloomberg Data

Notes:

0

500

1,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,500

U.S Storage Levels (Bcf)

East Storage LevelWest Storage LevelProduction Area Storage Level5 Year Average

26
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

EIA National Storage Inventories

National Natural Gas Market Overview: Natural Gas Storage Inventory

Source: Derived from Bloomberg Data

Notes:

0

500

1,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,500

Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Fe

Storage (Bcf)

5 Year Range 2013 20

27
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

EIA Regional Storage Inventories

National Natural Gas Market Overview: Natural Gas Storage Inventory

Source: Derived from Bloomberg Data

Notes:

28

0

500

1,0001,5002,0002,500

EAST

0

100200300400500600 WEST

0

500

1,0001,500

Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 

5 Year Range 2013 

PRODUCING
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

Monthly U.S. Dry Gas Production – Lower 48 Stat

National Natural Gas Market Overview: Monthly U.S. Dry Gas Production

Note: Prior to July 2010, chart was derived from a combination of EIA and Bentek Energy data

Source: Derived from Bentek Energy data 

1020304050607080

Bcfd

Dry Production

29
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

Rigs by Type

National Natural Gas Market Overview: Rig Count by Type

Source: Derived from Bloomberg dataNotes:

0

200400600800

1,0001,2001,4001,6001,800

Oct‐10

Jan‐11

Apr‐11

Jul‐11

Oct‐11

Jan‐12

Apr‐12

Jul‐12

Oct‐12

Jan‐13

Apr‐13

Jul‐13

Oct‐13

J14

Baker Hughes Rig Count (Rigs)

Oil Rigs Gas Rigs

30
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

Total US Rig Count

National Natural Gas Market Overview: Rig Count

Source: Derived from Bloomberg dataNotes:

0

500

1,0001,5002,0002,500

Baker Hughes Rigs By Drill Type Vertical Horizontal Directio

31
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

Daily Gas Sendout from Existing U.S. LNG Facilit

National Natural Gas Market Overview: LNG Market-Daily Gas Sendout

Notes: Everett data includes flows onto the AGT and TGP interstate lines, plus estimates of flows to the Mystic 7 power plant, Keyspan Boston 

Gas, and LNG trucked out of the terminal. Excludes flows to the Freeport LNG which flows via intrastate pipelines and flows to the Mystic 8 and 9 power plants.Source: Derived from Bentek Energy data 

32

0

500

1,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,5005,000

Daily LNG Sendout (MMcfd)

Sabine PassLake CharlesGolden PassFreeportNortheast GaExcelerateCameronElba IslandCove PointEverett (Gros

0

1,0002,0003,0004,000 Monthly Average
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

Source: Waterborne Energy, Inc. Data in $US/MMBtuNote: Includes information and Data supplied by IHS Global Inc. and its affiliates (“IHS”); Copyright (publication year) all rights reserved.

World LNG Estimated October 2014 Landed 

Updated 

National Natural Gas Market Overview: World LNG Landed Prices

Cove Point

$4.50

India

$11.55

UK

$8.75

Spain

$9.05

Belgium

$8.84

Korea

$12.40

Lake Charles

$3.96 Altamira $4.60

Cove Point

$4.40

India

$11.55

UK

$8.75

Spain

$9.15

Belgium

$8.99

Korea

$13.10

Lake Charles

$3.93 Altamira $4.57

Cove Point

$4.50

India

$11.55

UK

$8.75

Spain

$9.05

Belgium

$8.84

Korea

$12.40

Lake Charles

$3.96 Altamira $4.60

Cove Point

India

UK

Spain

Belgium

Korea

Lake Charles

Altamira

Rio de Janeiro

Bahia Blanca

Canaport

C

$14.01

$14.55

$14.23

$3.57

$2.81 $6.31

$12.10

$9.13

$8.99

$14.10 $1

$14.8
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

Historical and Future World Gas Prices

National Natural Gas Market Overview: LNG Competitive Price Hubs

Source: Derived from Bloomberg data Notes:

$0$5

$10$15$20$25$30

Oct‐12

Dec‐12

Feb‐13

Apr‐13

Jun‐13

Aug‐13

Oct‐13

Dec‐13

Feb‐14

Apr‐14

Jun‐14

Aug‐14

Oct‐14

Dec‐14

Feb‐15

A15

$/MMBtu

Henry Hub TZ6 NYAlgonquin Citygates UKNBPJapanese LNG Spot Price Futures Prices

34
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

National Natural Gas Market Overview: WTI vs Brent Oil Price

Source: Derived from Bloomberg data 

WTI vs Brent Crude Oil Price

$60$70$80$90

$100$110$120$130

Oil Prices($/Barrel)

WtI Oil Brent C

35
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

National Natural Gas Market Overview: Nymex Futures Curve

Source: Derived from Bloomberg data 

Nymex Futures Curves

$0.00$1.00$2.00$3.00$4.00$5.00$6.00

Nov‐14

Feb‐15

May‐15

Aug‐15

Nov‐15

Feb‐16

May‐16

Aug‐16

Nov‐16

Feb‐17

Nymex Futures Curves($/MMBtu) 10/26/2013 4/27/2014

9/27/2014 10/28/2014

36
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

US Total Generation Mix

National Electricity Market Overview: Generation Mix

37
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

Natural Gas and Fuels MWest
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

West Day Ahead Natural Gas Prices

Averaged Annually/Seasonally

West Natural Gas Market: Annual Hub Prices

Source: ICE Notes:

Up

39

Average Day

Ahead Prices

($/MMBtu)

SoCal

Border

Opal

Wyoming

Plant

El Paso

Permian

GTN Malin

Oregon

Annual 4.05 3.81 3.87 3.94 

Summer 4.18 3.89 3.99 4.03 Winter 2011/2012 2.98 2.75 2.69 2.86 

Annual 2.91 2.68 2.67 2.73 

Summer 2.83 2.58 2.61 2.61 Winter 2012/2013 3.62 3.46 3.38 3.52 

Annual 3.83 3.65 3.63 3.71 

Summer 3.82 3.61 3.63 3.67 Winter 2013/2014 4.89 4.88 4.68 4.88 

Annual 4.72 4.56 4.47 4.60 

Summer 4.18 3.89 3.99 4.03 Winter 2014/2015

2011 2012 2013 2014 YTD
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

West Daily Day-Ahead Prices

West Natural Gas Market: Day-Ahead Prices

Source: ICE Notes:

Up

$0$5

$10$15$20$25$30$35

Spot Day-Ahead Prices ($/MMBtu)

SoCal Border Opal Wyoming PEl Paso Permian GTN Malin Orego

$0$2$4$6$8

2011 2012 2013 2014

30 Day Moving Avg

40
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

West Daily Day-Ahead Basis

West Natural Gas Market: Day-Ahead Basis

Source: ICE Notes:

Up

-$5

$0$5

$10$15$20$25

Day Ahead Basis ($/MMBtu)

SoCal Border Basis Opal Wyoming PEl Paso Permian Basis GTN Malin Orego

-$2-$1

$0$1$2

2011 2012 2013 2014

30D Moving Avg

41
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

West Average Monthly Basis

West Natural Gas Market: Average Monthly Basis

Source: ICENotes:

Up

-$0.40-$0.20

$0.00$0.20$0.40$0.60$0.80$1.00$1.20$1.40

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

2012 2013 2

Day-Ahead Basis AVeraged Monthly 

($/MMBtu)

SoCal Basis Opal Basis El Paso Permian Basis G

42
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

Daily Rockies Natural Gas Demand All Sectors

West Natural Gas Market: Daily Demand

Source: Derived from Bentek Energy data

Note: Rockies is defined as Montana, Wyoming, Colorado, and Utah 

01234567

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov D

Bcfd

2009-2013 Range 2014

43
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

Daily Southwest and Northwest Natural Gas Demand A

West Natural Gas Market: Daily Demand

Source: Derived from Bentek Energy dataNote: Data derived from interstate natural gas pipeline flows. Southwest is defined as New Mexico, Arizona, California, Nevada and the Northwest is defined as Idaho, Oregon, and Washington 

02468

1012141618

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Bcfd

2009-2013 Range 2014

012345

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Au

Bcfd

2009-2013 Range 

Southwest Northwes

44
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

West Natural Gas Consumption for Power Genera

West Natural Gas Market: NG Consumption for Power Generation

Source: Derived from Bentek Energy dataNote: West is defined as Montana, Wyoming, Colorado, Utah New Mexico, Arizona, California, Nevada , Idaho, Oregon, and Washington 

0

1,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,000

MMcfd

2009-13 Range2014

45
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

Electricity MarketsWest
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

CAISO Real Time Prices—Two Year History 

West Electricity Market: CAISO Real Time Prices

47

Updated: 1

-50

0

50

100150200250300350

Oct-12

Nov-12

Dec-12

Jan-13

Feb-13

Mar-13

Apr-13

May-13

Jun-13

Jul-13

Aug-13

Sep-13

Oct-13

Nov-13

Dec-13

Jan-14

Feb-14

Mar-14

Apr-14

May-14

Jun-14

Weighted Daily Avg ($/MWh)

Prior Year Last 30 days SCE Daily Avg Real Time Price Last 30 days SDG&E Avg Real Time Price was $43.72. Last 30 days PG&E Daily Avg Real Time Pric

Source: Genscape via Bloomberg
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

CAISO System Daily Average Load —Two Year Hist

West Electricity Market: CAISO Average Daily Load

48

05

1015202530354045

Oct-12

Nov-12

Dec-12

Jan-13

Feb-13

Mar-13

Apr-13

May-13

Jun-13

Jul-13

Aug-13

Sep-13

Oct-13

Nov-13

Dec-13

Jan-14

Feb-14

Mar-14

Apr-14

May-14

Jun-14

Weighted Daily Avg Load (GW)

Prior Year Last 30 days average on peak load was 29 GW. Last 30 days average off peak load 

Source: Genscape via Bloomberg Updated: 10/29/20
49 Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

Updated

Mountain Regional Generation Mix

West Electricity Market: Mountain Regional Generation Mix
50 Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

Updated

West Electricity Market: Pacific Contiguous Generation Mix

Pacific Contiguous Generation Mix