Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

OE ENERGY

MARKET SNAPSHOT

East Version – Data

Office of Enforcement

Federal Energy Regulatory Commission

May 2014

June 2014
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov

2014 Summer Assessment

http://www.ferc.gov/market-oversight/reports-analyses/mkt

15-14.pdf

2014 Summer Assessme

2
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov

Office of Energy Projects Energy Infrastructure U

http://www.ferc.gov/legal/staff-reports.asp

(see “Energy Infrastructure” tab) 

Infrastructure Report

3
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov

National Slides

4
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov

5

NOAA 3 Month Outlook
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov

Pitts

burgh

Calgary

City Location

Chicago

N

Oklahoma

City

Los Dallas

Angeles

Sacra

mento Denver

Portland

Houston New 

Orleans 

Vancouver

This YearLast Year5 Year Average

Cumulative HDDs by City 

Source: Bloomberg Weather

Atla

Updated

144

161128

192

133173163

328749

5

3113

2

11

2

2

7

9

199263

233252267

1

2

7

148179

14

2

175242

1

8

1565

11

6

25

3

63

May

6

6
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov

Pitts

burgh

Calgary

City Location

Chicago

N

Oklahoma

City

Los Dallas

Angeles

Sacra

mento Denver

Portland

Houston New 

Orleans 

Vancouver

This YearLast Year5 Year Average

Cumulative CDDs by City 

Source: Bloomberg Weather

Atla

Updated

May

6

457

607378

320308400

102

8784

2

1

8

129169

292303333

288312394

131

203926

000

181510

132113

76

168104

63

171119

7
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov

Columbia

TCO

AECO 

Pricing PointBOLD – This YearGreen – % increase from previous yearRed – % decrease from previous year

ChicagoCitygate

Tran

Z6-

NGPL

Tex-Okla

El Paso

Permian

SoCal 

Border

PG&E

Citygate

CIG

NW 

Sumas

HSC Henry Hub

Spot Natural Gas Prices 

Average ($/MMBtu)

Source: ICE Updated

May

6

$4.

8%

$4.4

2

9%

$4.1

6

9%

$4.20

13%

$4.

0

4

14%

$3.89

19%

$4.11

11%

$3.69

15%

$3.75

36%

$3.7

8

19%

$4.33

16%

$3.9

7

17%

8
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov

Columbia

TCO

Pricing PointBOLD – This yearGreen – % increase from previous yearRed – % decrease from previous year

ChicagoCitygate

Tra

Z6

NGPL

Tex-Okla

El Paso

Permian

SoCal 

Border

PG&E

Citygate

CIG

NW 

Sumas

HSC Henry Hub

F

Spot Natural Gas Trading Volu

Average (MMBtus)

Source: ICE Updated

May

6

1

6

1

30,377

‐63%

851,1

3

7

‐14%

55

3,057

15%

7

67,93

7

32%

41

3,880

‐12%

4

37,63

7

‐20%

141,190

259%

63,536

14%

833,390

37%

606,677

64%

9
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

U.S. NG Supply and Demand May 2013 vs. May 20

National Natural Gas Market Overview: U.S. Supply and Consumption

Note: Balance includes all amounts not attributable to other categories.Source: Derived from Bentek Energy data 

0

102030405060708090

100

2013 2014

Average Daily Volume (Bcfd)

US Natural Gas Supply

0

102030405060708090

100

2013 

Average Daily Volume (Bcfd)

US Natural Gas D

Total Change in Demand

Power 

Generation

Net Dry Gas

Production

Net Pipeline

Imports

3.1%

3.3%

-45.5%

3.5% 

LNG Imports

Industrial

Total Change in Supply 4

Residential/ 

Commercial

10
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

National Natural Gas Market Overview: Canadian Imports

Regional Imports from Canada

Source: Derived from Bentek Energy data 

(2)

02468

1012

Jan-05

Jul-05

Jan-06

Jul-06

Jan-07

Jul-07

Jan-08

Jul-08

Jan-09

Jul-09

Jan-10

Jul-10

Jan-11

Jul-11

Jan-12

Jul-12

Bcfd

Northwest NeMidwest Net INortheast Net 

11
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

Total U.S. Natural Gas Demand All Sectors

National Natural Gas Market Overview: Total US Gas Demand

Source: Derived from Bentek Energy data, derived from interstate pipeline flow and modeled data. 

0

20406080

100120140160

Bcfd

2009-2013 Ran2014

12
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

U.S. Natural Gas Consumption for Power Generat

National Natural Gas Market Overview: NG Consumption for Power Generation

Source: Derived from Bentek Energy data 

0

200,000400,000600,000800,000

1,000,0001,200,000

MMcf/month

2009-13 Range2014

13
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

EIA National Storage Inventories by Region

National Natural Gas Market Overview: Natural Gas Storage Inventory

Source: Derived from Bloomberg Data

Notes:

0

500

1,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,500

U.S Storage Levels (Bcf)

East Storage LevelWest Storage LevelProduction Area Storage Level5 Year Average

14
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

EIA National Storage Inventories

National Natural Gas Market Overview: Natural Gas Storage Inventory

Source: Derived from Bloomberg Data

Notes:

0

500

1,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,500

Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 

5 Year Range 2013 

15
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

EIA Regional Storage Inventories

National Natural Gas Market Overview: Natural Gas Storage Inventory

Source: Derived from Bloomberg Data

Notes:

16
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

Monthly U.S. Dry Gas Production – Lower 48 Stat

National Natural Gas Market Overview: Monthly U.S. Dry Gas Production

Note: Prior to July 2010, chart was derived from a combination of EIA and Bentek Energy data

Source: Derived from Bentek Energy data 

1020304050607080

Bcfd

Dry Production

17
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

NG Rigs by Type

National Natural Gas Market Overview: Rig Count by Type

Source: Derived from Bloomberg dataNotes:

0

200400600800

1,0001,2001,4001,6001,800

May‐10

Aug‐10

Nov‐10

Feb‐11

May‐11

Aug‐11

Nov‐11

Feb‐12

May‐12

Aug‐12

Nov‐12

Feb‐13

May‐13

A13

Baker Hughes Rig Count (Rigs)

Oil Rigs Gas Rigs

18
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

NG Rig by Direction

National Natural Gas Market Overview: Rig Count by Direction

Source: Derived from Bloomberg dataNotes:

0

500

1,0001,5002,0002,500

Baker Hughes Rigs By Drill Type Vertical Horizontal Directio

19
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

Daily Gas Sendout from Existing U.S. LNG Facilit

National Natural Gas Market Overview: LNG Market-Daily Gas Sendout

Notes: Everett data includes flows onto the AGT and TGP interstate lines, plus estimates of flows to the Mystic 7 power plant, Keyspan Boston 

Gas, and LNG trucked out of the terminal. Excludes flows to the Freeport LNG which flows via intrastate pipelines and flows to the Mystic 8 and 9 power plants.Source: Derived from Bentek Energy data 

0

500

1,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,5005,000

Daily LNG Sendout (MMcfd)

Sabine PasLake CharlGolden PaFreeportNortheast ExcelerateCameronElba IslandCove PointEverett (Gr

0

1,0002,0003,0004,000 Monthly Average

20
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

Source: Waterborne Energy, Inc. Data in $US/MMBtu

World LNG Estimated July 2014 Landed Pr

Updated 

National Natural Gas Market Overview: World LNG Landed Prices

Cove Point

$4.50

India

$11.55

UK

$8.75

Spain

$9.05

Belgium

$8.84

Korea

$12.40

Lake Charles

$3.96 Altamira $4.60

Cove Point

$4.40

India

$11.55

UK

$8.75

Spain

$9.15

Belgium

$8.99

Korea

$13.10

Lake Charles

$3.93 Altamira $4.57

Cove Point

$4.50

India

$11.55

UK

$8.75

Spain

$9.05

Belgium

$8.84

Korea

$12.40

Lake Charles

$3.96 Altamira $4.60

Cove Point

India

UK

Spain

Belgium

Korea

Lake Charles

Altamira

Rio de Janeiro

Bahia Blanca

Chin

Canaport

$3.61 $4.76

$7.16

$4.13

$13.63

$13.89

$13.73

$ 9.80

$7.38

$12.80 $12.

$13.25

21
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

Historical and Future World Gas Prices

National Natural Gas Market Overview: LNG Competitive Price Hubs

Source: Derived from Bloomberg data Notes:

$0$5

$10$15$20$25$30

Jun‐12

Aug‐12

Oct‐12

Dec‐12

Feb‐13

Apr‐13

Jun‐13

Aug‐13

Oct‐13

Dec‐13

Feb‐14

Apr‐14

Jun‐14

Aug‐14

Oct‐14

$/MMBtu

Henry Hub TZ6 NYAlgonquin Citygates UKNBPJapanese LNG Spot Price Futures Price

22
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

National Natural Gas Market Overview: WTI vs Brent Oil Price

Source: Derived from Bloomberg data 

WTI vs Brent Crude Oil Price

$60$70$80$90

$100$110$120$130

Oil Prices($/Barrel)

WtI Oil Brent C

23
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

National Natural Gas Market Overview: Nymex Futures Curve

Source: Derived from Bloomberg data 

Nymex Futures Curves

$0.00$1.00$2.00$3.00$4.00$5.00$6.00

Jul‐14

Sep‐14

Nov‐14

Jan‐15

Mar‐15

May‐15

Jul‐15

Sep‐15

Nov‐15

Jan‐16

Mar‐16

May‐16

Jul‐16

Sep‐16

Nov‐16

Nymex Futures Curves($/MMBtu) 6/2/2013 12/2/2013

5/4/2014 6/4/2014

24
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

US Total Generation Mix

National Electricity Market Overview: Generation Mix

0

50000

100000150000200000250000300000350000400000450000

Monthly Generation (GWh)

US Total Generation Mix,

Feb '12 to Mar '14

Coal Generation in Mar '14 was 137004 GNatGas Generation in Mar '14 was 77505 Nuclear Generation in Mar '14 was 62395 Hydro Generation in Mar '14 was 24243 GOther Renewable Generation in Mar '14 wOil Generation in Mar '14 was 965 GWh (0

Total Generation in Mar '14 was 327824 G

States: All

25
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

Natural Gas and Fuels MEast
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

Northeast Annual Average Day-Ahead Prices

Northeast Natural Gas Market: Annual Hub Prices

Source: Derived from ICE data Notes:

Updated

Average Day

Ahead Prices

($/MMBtu)

Algonquin

Citygates

Transco

Zone 6

NY

Transco

Zone 6

Non‐NY

Columbia

Applachia

Henry

Hub

Annual 5.01 5.01 4.68 4.07 3.98Summer 4.56 4.55 4.42 4.21 4.14Winter 2011/2012 4.00 3.59 3.08 2.77 2.74Annual 3.97 3.27 2.99 2.78 2.75Summer 3.25 2.86 2.83 2.71 2.69Winter 2012/2013 9.53 6.63 4.10 3.51 3.47Annual 6.97 5.07 4.08 3.70 3.70Summer 4.25 3.92 3.83 3.73 3.75Winter 2013/2014 16.08 11.75 11.78 4.64 4.61Annual 12.91 10.62 10.70 4.84 4.86Summer 4.25 3.69 3.80 4.42 4.54Winter 2014/2015

2011 2012 2013 2014 YTD

27
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

Northeast Day-Ahead Prices

Northeast Natural Gas Market: Day-Ahead Prices

Source: Derived from ICE data Notes:

Update

$0

$20$40$60$80

$100$120$140

Spot Day-Ahead Prices ($/MMBtu)

Transco Zone 6 NYTransco Z6 Non-NYColumbia TCO PoolAlgonquin City Gates

$0

$10$20$30$40

2011 2012 2013 2014

30 Day Moving Avg

28
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

Northeast Monthly Average Basis Value To Henry H

Northeast Natural Gas Market: Average Basis to Henry Hub

Source: Derived from ICE data Notes:

Updated

-$5.00

$0.00$5.00

$10.00$15.00$20.00$25.00$30.00

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

2012 2013 

Average Day-Ahead Basis($/MMBtu)

Avg Mthly Transco Zone 6 NY BasisAvg Mthly Transco Z6 Non-NY BasisAvg Mthly Columbia TCO Pool BasisAvg Mthly Algonquin Citygate Basis

6/16

29
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

Northeast Day-Ahead Basis

Northeast Natural Gas Market: Yearly Hub Prices

Source: Derived from ICE data Notes:

Updated

-$20

$0

$20$40$60$80

$100$120$140

Day Ahead Basis ($/MMBtu)

Transco Zone 6 NY Basis Transco Z6 Non-NY Columbia TCO Pool Basis Algonquin City Gat

$0$5

$10$15

2011 2012 2013 2014

30D Moving Avg

6/

30
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

Daily Northeast Natural Gas Demand All Sector

Northeast Natural Gas Market: Daily Demand

Source: Derived from Bentek Energy data

05

1015202530354045

Bcfd

2009-2013 Ra2014

31
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

Northeast Natural Gas Consumption for Power Gene

Northeast Natural Gas Market Overview: NG Consumption for Power Generation

Source: Derived from Bentek Energy data 

0

50,000

100,000150,000200,000250,000300,000

MMcf/month 

2009-13 Rang2014

32
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

Southeast Annual Average Day-Ahead Prices

Southeast Natural Gas Market: Annual Hub Prices

Source: Derived from ICE data Notes:

Average Day

Ahead Prices

($/MMBtu) FGT Z3 Tetco‐M1

Transco

St 65

Transco

Zone 5 Henry Hub

Annual 4.04 3.98 3.98 4.67 3.98

Summer 4.22 4.12 4.12 4.65 4.14

Winter 2011/2012 2.79 2.74 2.74 3.00 2.74

Annual 2.94 2.73 2.74 2.94 2.75

Summer 2.97 2.65 2.67 2.82 2.69

Winter 2012/2013 3.51 3.47 3.48 3.95 3.47

Annual 3.77 3.66 3.71 4.07 3.72

Summer 3.83 3.68 3.74 3.95 3.76

Winter 2013/2014 4.62 4.61 4.60 12.42 4.61

Annual 4.89 4.89 4.86 12.60 4.87

Summer 4.61 4.52 4.54 4.57 4.58

Winter 2014/2015

2011 2012 2013 2014 YTD

33
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

Southeast Day-Ahead Prices

Southeast Natural Gas Market: Day-Ahead Prices

Source: Derived from ICE data Notes:

$0

$20$40$60$80

$100$120$140

Spot Day-Ahead Prices ($/MMBtu)

Tetco-M1 FGT Z3 Transco St Transco Zone 5 Henry Hub

$0$2$4$6

2011 2012 2013 2014

30 Day Moving Avg

34
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

Southeast Day-Ahead Basis

Southeast Natural Gas Market: Day Ahead Basis To Henry Hub

Source: Derived from ICE data Notes:

-$20

$0

$20$40$60$80

$100$120$140

Day Ahead Basis ($/MMBtu)

Tetco-M1 BasisFGT Z3 BasisTransco St 65 BasisTransco Zone 5 Basis

‐$10

$0

$10$20$30 30D Moving Avg

35
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

Southeast Monthly Average Basis Value To Henry 

Southeast Natural Gas Market: Average Basis to Henry Hub

Source: Derived from ICE data Notes:

Updated

 $(5.00)

 $-

 $5.00

 $10.00 $15.00 $20.00 $25.00

6 7 8 9 101112 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112 1 

2012 2013 

Avg Monthly Day-Ahead Prices ($/MMBtu)

Average of FGT Z3 BasisAverage of Tetco-M1 BasisAverage of Transco St 65 BasisAverage of Transco Zone 5 Basis

36
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

Daily Southeast Natural Gas Demand All Sector

Southeast Natural Gas Market: Daily Demand

Source: Derived from Bentek Energy data

05

1015202530

Bcfd

2009-2013 R2014

37
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

Southeast Natural Gas Consumption for Power Gene

Southeast Natural Gas Market: NG Consumption for Power Generation

Source: Derived from Bentek Energy data 

0

50,000

100,000150,000200,000250,000300,000350,000

MMcf/month

2009-13 Range2014

38
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

Electricity MarketsEast

3939
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

PJM Real Time Prices—Two Year History 

Northeast Electricity Market: PJM Real Time Prices

0

100200300400500600700800900

May-12

Jun-12

Jul-12

Aug-12

Sep-12

Oct-12

Nov-12

Dec-12

Jan-13

Feb-13

Mar-13

Apr-13

May-13

Jun-13

Jul-13

Aug-13

Sep-13

Oct-13

Nov-13

Dec-13

Jan-14

Weighted Daily Avg ($/MWh)

Prior Year Yesterday's PJM Western Hub Daily Avg Real Time Yesterday's PJM Eastern Hub Daily Avg Real Time Price was $36.84. Yesterday's PJM Dayton Hub Daily Avg Real Time PYesterday's PJM Dominion Hub Daily Avg Real Time Price was $36.75.

Source

40
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

PJM System Daily Average Load —Two Year Histo

Northeast Electricity Market: PJM Average Daily Load

0

20406080

100120140160

May-12

Jun-12

Jul-12

Aug-12

Sep-12

Oct-12

Nov-12

Dec-12

Jan-13

Feb-13

Mar-13

Apr-13

May-13

Jun-13

Jul-13

Aug-13

Sep-13

Oct-13

Nov-13

Dec-13

Jan-14

Weighted Daily Avg Load (GW)

Prior Year Yesterday's average on peak load was 86 GW. Yesterday's average off‐peak loa

Source: G

41
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

PJM Western Hub Peak RT Futures

Northeast Electricity Market: PJM Western Hub Peak RT Futures

$0

$10$20$30$40$50$60$70$80$90

Futures Price ($/MWh)

Current open interest for next month is 39Yesterday's forward curve range was $40 One week ago the forward curve range waOne month ago the forward curve range wSix months ago the forward curve range w

Source: NYMEX Clearpo

42
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

PJM On-Peak Spark & Dark Spreads

Northeast Electricity Market: PJM On-Peak Spark & Dark Spreads

‐400‐200

0

200400600800

Spark& Dark Spreads ($/MWh)

Yesterday's On‐Peak Spark Spread was $18.11 per MWh. Yesterday's On‐Peak Dark Spread was $2

-20-15-10

-5

05

May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-

Difference in Spreads ($/MWh)

Spark Spread minus Dark Spread, 5/7/13 to 5/7/14

NG more profitable. Coal more profitable. (Yesterday by $1.92 per MWh.)

Assumptions:Electricity Price = PJM Western Hub Peak DA

NG Price Point = TETCO M3 spot

NG Heat Rate = 7000 mmBtu/kWh

Coal Type = Central Appalacian

Coal Heat Content = 12000 Btu/lbCoal Heat Rate = 10000 mmBtu/kWh Sources (all via Bloomberg): Electricity Price: G

43
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

NYISO Real Time Prices—Two Year History 

Northeast Electricity Market: NYISO Real Time Prices

‐50

50

150250350450550

Weighted Daily Avg ($/MWh)

Prior Year Yesterday's Long Island Daily Avg Real Time PYesterday's NYC Daily Avg Real Time Price was $33.40. Yesterday's NYISO Capital Zone Daily Avg ReaYesterday's NYISO West Zone Avg Real Time Price was $29.66.

Source: Genscape via Bloomberg

44
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

NYISO System Daily Average Load —Two Year Hist

Northeast Electricity Market: NYISO Average Daily Load

05

101520253035

May-12

Jun-12

Jul-12

Aug-12

Sep-12

Oct-12

Nov-12

Dec-12

Jan-13

Feb-13

Mar-13

Apr-13

May-13

Jun-13

Jul-13

Aug-13

Sep-13

Oct-13

Nov-13

Dec-13

Jan-14

Weighted Daily Avg Load (GW)

Yesterday's average on peak load was 18 GW. Yesterday's average off‐peak load was 1

Source: G

45
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

NYISO Hudson Valley Zone Peak DA Futures

Northeast Electricity Market: NYISO Hudson Valley Zone Peak DA Futures

$0

$20$40$60$80

$100$120$140

May-14

Aug-14

Nov-14

Feb-15

May-15

Aug-15

Nov-15

Feb-16

May-16

Aug-16

Nov-16

Feb-17

May-17

Aug-17

Nov-17

Feb-18

May-18

Aug-18

Futures Price ($/MWh)

Source: NY

46
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

NYISO NYC On-Peak Spark & Dark Spreads

Northeast Electricity Market: NYISO NYC On-Peak Spark & Dark Spreads

‐1000

‐800‐600‐400‐200

0

200400600

Spark& Dark Spreads ($/MWh)

Yesterday's On‐Peak Spark Spread was $24.75 per MWh. Yesterday's On‐Peak Dark Spread was $

-100

-80-60-40-20

0

20

May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar

Difference in Spreads ($/MWh)

Spark Spread minus Dark Spread, 5/7/13 to 5/7/14

NG more profitable. Coal more profitable. (Yesterday by $2.22 per MWh.)

Assumptions:Electricity Price = NYC Zone J On‐Peak DA

NG Price Point = Transco Z6 spot

NG Heat Rate = 7000 mmBtu/kWhCoal Type = Central Appalacian

Coal Heat Content = 12000 Btu/lbCoal Heat Rate = 10000 mmBtu/kWh Sources (all via Bloomberg): Electricity P

47
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

NYISO NYC On-Peak Spark & Dark Spreads

Northeast Electricity Market: NYISO Capital Zone On-Peak Spark & Dark Spreads

‐300‐200‐100

0

100200300400500

Spark& Dark Spreads ($/MWh)

NYISO Capital Zone On‐Peak Spark & Dark Spreads 5/7/13 to 5/

Yesterday's On‐Peak Spark Spread was $9.06 per MWh. Yesterday's On‐Peak Dark Spread was $

-100

-80-60-40-20

0

20

May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar

Difference in Spreads ($/MWh)

Spark Spread minus Dark Spread, 5/7/13 to 5/7/14

NG more profitable. Coal more profitable. (Yesterday by $6.76 per MWh.)

Assumptions:Electricity Price = Capital Zone F On‐Peak RT

NG Price Point = Iroquois Zone 2

NG Heat Rate = 7000 mmBtu/kWh

Coal Type = Central Appalacian

Coal Heat Content = 12000 Btu/lb Sources (all via Bloomberg): Electricity Price

48
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

ISO-NE Real Time Prices—Two Year History 

Northeast Electricity Market: ISO-NE Real Time Prices

0

50

100150200250300350400

May-12

Jun-12

Jul-12

Aug-12

Sep-12

Oct-12

Nov-12

Dec-12

Jan-13

Feb-13

Mar-13

Apr-13

May-13

Jun-13

Jul-13

Aug-13

Sep-13

Oct-13

Nov-13

Dec-13

Jan-14

Weighted Daily Avg ($/MWh)

Prior Year Yesterday's NE Mass/Boston Daily Avg Real Time PYesterday's Connecticut Zone Daily Avg Real Time Price was $40.25. Yesterday's Internal Hub Daily Avg Real Time Price Yesterday's Maine Zone Avg Real Time Price was $40.19.

Source: 

49
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

ISO-NE System Daily Average Load —Two Year His

Northeast Electricity Market: ISO-NE Average Daily Load

05

1015202530

May-12

Jun-12

Jul-12

Aug-12

Sep-12

Oct-12

Nov-12

Dec-12

Jan-13

Feb-13

Mar-13

Apr-13

May-13

Jun-13

Jul-13

Aug-13

Sep-13

Oct-13

Nov-13

Dec-13

Jan-14

Weighted Daily Avg Load (GW)

Yesterday's average on peak load was 14 GW. Yesterday's average off‐peak load was 

Source: 

50
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

ISO-NE Internal Hub Peak DA Futures

Northeast Electricity Market: ISO-NE Internal Hub Peak DA Futures

$0

$20$40$60$80

$100$120$140$160$180

May-14

Aug-14

Nov-14

Feb-15

May-15

Aug-15

Nov-15

Feb-16

May-16

Aug-16

Nov-16

Feb-17

May-17

Aug-17

Nov-17

Feb-18

May-18

Aug-18

Futures Price ($/MWh)

Current open interest for next month is 1470 contracts. Yesterday's forward curve range was $40 to $156.One week ago the forward curve range was $40 to $158. One month ago the forward curve range was $35 to $155.Six months ago the forward curve range was $40 to $104.

Source: NYMEX Clearport via Blo

51
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

ISO-NE On-Peak Spark & Dark Spreads

Northeast Electricity Market: ISO-NE On-Peak Spark & Dark Spreads

‐300‐200‐100

0

100200300400500

Spark& Dark Spreads ($/MWh)

Yesterday's On‐Peak Spark Spread was $11.83 per MWh. Yesterday's On‐Peak Dark Spread was $1

-150-130-110

-90-70-50-30-10

1030

May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-

Difference in Spreads ($/MWh)

Spark Spread minus Dark Spread, 5/7/13 to 5/7/14

NG more profitable. Coal more profitable. (Yesterday by $4.00 per MWh.)

Assumptions:Electricity Price = Internal Hub On‐Peak DANG Price Point = Algonquin Boston City Gate Spot

NG Heat Rate = 7000 mmBtu/kWh

Coal Type = Central Appalacian

Coal Heat Content = 12000 Btu/lbCoal Heat Rate = 10000 mmBtu/kWh Sources (all via Bloomberg): Electricity Price: 

52
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

0

2000400060008000

100001200014000

Monthly Generation (GWh)

New England Regional Generation Mix,

Feb '12 to Mar '14

Gas Generation in Mar '14 was 2647 GNuclear Generation in Mar '14 was 345Coal Generation in Mar '14 was 1273 GHydro Generation in Mar '14 was 607 Othr Renew Generation in Mar '14 waOil Generation in Mar '14 was 421 GW

Total Generation in Mar '14 was 9330 

States: CT, ME, MA, NH, RI, VT

53
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

0

5000

100001500020000250003000035000400004500050000

Monthly Generation (GWh)

Middle Atlantic Regional Generation Mix,

Feb '12 to Mar '14

Gas Generation in Mar '14 was Coal Generation in Mar '14 waNuclear Generation in Mar '14 Hydro Generation in Mar '14 wOthr Renew Generation in Mar Oil Generation in Mar '14 was 4

Total Generation in Mar '14 wa

States: NJ, NY, PA

54
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

0

100002000030000400005000060000700008000090000

Monthly Generation (GWh)

South Atlantic Regional Generation Mix,

Feb '12 to Mar '14

Coal Generation in Mar '14 was Gas Generation in Mar '14 was 1Nuclear Generation in Mar '14 wHydro Generation in Mar '14 waOthr Renew Generation in Mar 'Oil Generation in Mar '14 was 33

Total Generation in Mar '14 was 

States: DC, DE, FL, GA, MD, NC, SC, VA, WV

55