HDR1012000110080413951500Potato Stock
HDR2012000110080413951500Potato Stock Narrative

Released April 13, 1995, by the Agricultural Statistics Board.

                         Potato Stocks Up 6 Percent

Potato stocks totaled 123 million cwt on April 1, 1995, up 6 percent from both
last year and two years ago.  April stocks cover 31 percent of fall potato
production in the 15 storage States, the same as a year ago.  Disappearance for
the season is a record high 277 million cwt of potatoes, 7 percent above last
year and 10 percent above 1993.  Shrink and loss of 28.7 million cwt was
7 percent above a year ago.  Processors used a record high 134 million cwt of
potatoes, up 8 percent for the season.  March processing totaled 18.1 million
cwt of potatoes, up 4 percent from a year earlier.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

For information call Arvin Budge at (202) 720-4285.  Office hours are
8:00 a.m. to 4:30 p.m. ET.

Pot 1-2 (4-95)


HDR2012000110080413951500Fall Potatoes

        Fall Potatoes:  Production and Stocks, 15 Major States, 1985-94
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  Crop   :          :         :         :         :         :         :
  Year   :Production:  Dec 1  :  Jan 1  :  Feb 1  :  Mar 1  :  Apr 1  : May 1
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
         :                              1,000 Cwt
         :
1985     :  343,984   235,475   202,800   171,510   138,720   104,540    65,380
1986     :  307,928   209,435   180,915   154,545   128,720    95,090    59,790
1987     :  335,607   225,890   196,760   167,325   138,800   105,905    70,030
1988     :  305,623   206,420   177,750   151,050   124,485    92,585    59,355
1989     :  316,097   202,050   173,550   144,290   116,600    84,320    50,675
1990     :  344,200   225,500   194,460   162,850   134,470   101,150    63,040
1991     :  363,541   242,070   211,005   178,515   145,820   108,865    69,110
1992     :  368,516   246,820   215,990   184,560   152,795   115,785    75,040
1993     :  375,004   249,710   217,800   186,090   154,135   115,970    73,860
1994     :  400,385   263,630   229,350   196,005   163,305   123,285
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

       Potatoes:  Quantity Used for Processing, Eight States, 1992-94 1/
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
     State and    :        :        :       :        :       :       :
     Crop Year    :  Dec 1 :  Jan 1 : Feb 1 :  Mar 1 : Apr 1 :  May 1:  Season
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                  :                           1,000 Cwt
                  :
ID & OR-Malheur Co:
  1992            :  22,180   29,080  35,710   42,800  50,090   57,090   80,570
  1993            :  24,090   30,540  37,150   44,720  53,070   61,440   85,780
  1994            :  26,620   34,230  42,330   49,890  57,990
                  :
ME 2/             :
  1992            :   1,195    1,630   2,205    2,720   3,390    4,020    5,055
  1993            :   1,350    1,720   2,210    2,505   2,890    3,275    4,555
  1994            :   1,510    1,840   2,275    2,535   2,975
                  :
WA & OR-Other     :
  1992            :  26,840   31,550  35,950   41,670  46,530   51,630   63,510
  1993            :  28,260   33,350  39,010   45,020  51,290   57,180   70,690
  1994            :  28,690   33,500  39,120   46,070  52,900
                  :
Oth Sts 3/        :
  1992            :   7,140    9,220  11,265   13,305  15,550   17,555   25,070
  1993            :   7,605    9,515  11,605   13,720  16,080   18,705   25,690
  1994            :   8,790   12,045  14,605   17,095  19,840
                  :
Total             :
  1992            :  57,355   71,480  85,130  100,495 115,560  130,295  174,205
  1993            :  61,305   75,125  89,975  105,965 123,330  140,600  186,715
  1994            :  65,610   81,615  98,330  115,590 133,705
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/  Total quantity received and used for processing regardless of the state in
    which the potatoes were produced.  Amount excludes quantities used for
    potato chips in ME, MI, MN, ND, and WI.
2/  Includes Maine grown potatoes only.
3/  MI, MN, ND, and WI.


           Fall Potatoes:  Production and Stocks on April 1, 1994-95
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              :           Crop of 1993          :          Crop of 1994
              :----------------------------------------------------------------
    State     :           : Stocks   :   %      :          : Stocks   :   %
              :   Prod    : Apr 1,   :   of     :  Prod    : Apr 1,   :   of
              :           :  1994    :  Prod    :          :  1995    :  Prod
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              :   --- 1,000 Cwt ----   Percent     --- 1,000 Cwt ----   Percent
              :
CA            :     4,800      1,700     35          4,400      1,800      41
CO            :    25,270      8,350     33         25,795      8,400      33
ID            :   126,192     52,000     41        134,340     50,500      38
ME            :    19,890      5,800     29         17,250      5,200      30
MI            :    11,780      1,800     15         12,180      2,500      21
MN            :    12,650      3,700     29         17,755      6,100      34
MT            :     2,700      1,770     66          3,200      1,950      61
NE            :     3,008        420     14          3,888        650      17
NY            :
  Long Island :     1,643       1/30                 1,617       1/65
  Upstate     :     6,050        400      7          6,188        600      10
ND            :    21,090      5,200     25         28,200      7,500      27
OH            :     1,140         1/                 1,348         1/
OR            :    23,103      8,800     38         25,784     10,100      39
PA            :     4,600        400      9          3,780        420      11
WA            :    88,500     20,000     23         88,920     23,500      26
WI            :    22,588      5,600     25         25,740      4,000      16
              :
Total 15 State:   375,004    115,970     31        400,385    123,285      31
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/  Combined to prevent possible disclosure of individual operations.



HDR2012000110080413951500Potato Stocks Up 6 Percent Narrative

                          Potato Stocks Up 6 Percent

April 1, 1995, stocks totaled 123 million cwt, up 6 percent from both last year
and two years ago.  Stocks made up 31 percent of fall potato production in the
15 storage States, the same as a year ago.  Season-to-date disappearance totaled
277 million cwt, 7 percent more than last year.  Processor usage of 134 million
cwt was up 8 percent from last year.  Shrinkage and loss to date was
28.7 million cwt, 7 percent above a year ago.

Processing continued to move potatoes at a record pace, accounting for
134 million cwt of potatoes from the 1994 crop, up 8 percent from the same
period last year and 16 percent above two years ago.  March processor usage was
18.1 million cwt, up 4 percent from a year ago and 20 percent above two years
ago.


Disappearance from the start of harvest through March totaled 277 million cwt of
potatoes, up 7 percent from last year and 10 percent above two years ago.
Shrinkage and loss was 28.7 million cwt, 7 percent above the 26.9 million cwt
lost last year but 1 percent below the losses of two years ago.


Eastern States stored 6.27 million cwt of potatoes on April 1, 1995, down
5 percent from last year but 31 percent above two years ago.  Maine's stocks
were down 10 percent.  Pennsylvania was up 5 percent.  New York, Upstate was up
50 percent.


Central States held 20.8 million cwt of potato storage on April 1, 1995.  This
is 24 percent above last year's rain devastated crop and 1 percent higher than
two years ago.  Wisconsin's stocks are off 29 percent but each of the other
Central States held more than a year ago.  North Dakota's stocks were up
44 percent from last year, Minnesota was up 65 percent, and Michigan's stocks
were up 39 percent from a year ago.  Nebraska was up 55 percent, with late seed
movement the reason.


Western States potato stocks totaled 96.3 million cwt in six States, up
4 percent from last year and 12 percent above two years ago.  Idaho's stocks
were down 3 percent, while Colorado was up 1 percent from last year.
Washington's stocks of 23.5 million cwt, were up 18 percent and Oregon's stocks
jumped 15 percent.  Montana's stocks were up 10 percent and California gained
6 percent from a year ago.


HDR2012000110080413951500Reliability

                Reliability of April 1 Stocks Estimates

The "Root Mean Square Error" for the April 1 stocks estimate is 5.8 percent.
This means that the chances are 2 out of 3 that the current estimate of
123 million cwt will not be above or below the final estimate by more than
5.8 percent or approximately 7.2 million cwt.  Chances are 9 out of
10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed
10.0 percent or approximately 12.3 million cwt.

The 10-year (1985-94) record of the differences between the April 1 stocks
estimate and the final estimates averaged 4.2 million cwt, ranging from
.01 million cwt to 12.8 million cwt.   During this 10-year period, the
April 1 estimate has been below the final estimate 9 out of 10 years.


           Fall Potato Stocks:  Preliminary and Final April Stocks,
                     United States, 1984-94 Crop Year
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
     Crop     :     Preliminary      :    % of     :          Final
     Year     :        Stocks        :    Final    :        Stocks  1/
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              :      1,000 Cwt           Percent             1,000 Cwt
              :
1984          :        85,425              98.8                86,440
1985          :       102,590              98.1               104,540
1986          :        91,670              96.4                95,090
1987          :       105,895             100.0               105,905
1988          :        86,745              93.7                92,585
1989          :        83,540              99.1                84,320
1990          :        91,910              90.9               101,150
1991          :       109,600             100.7               108,865
1992          :       103,010              89.0               115,785
1993          :       108,455              93.5               115,970
1994          :       123,285                --                  --
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/  As reported in the September "Potatoes" Annual report.


Note:  Stocks are defined as the quantity (whether sold or not) remaining
       in storage for all purposes and uses, including seed potatoes not yet
       moved and shrinkage, waste, and other losses that occur ofter the
       date of each report.  Sales of fall potatoes for all purposes for
       the past 5 years averaged 90.5 percent of the total fall production.
       Shrinkage, loss and home use account for the remaininq 9.5 precent.
       Most seed for use the following year is on hand, but remains as
       part of stocks until planted.


The next "Potato Stocks" report will be released at 3 p.m. ET on May 12, 1995.


The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination in
its programs on the basis of race, color, national origin, sex, religion, age,
disability, political beliefs, and marital or familial status.  Persons with
disabilities who require alternative means for communication of program
information (braille, large print, audiotape, etc.) should contact the
USDA Office of Communications at (202) 720-5881 (voice) or (202) 720-7808
(TDD).

To file a complaint, write the Secretary of Agriculture, USDA, Washington,
D.C., 20250, or call (202) 720-7327 (voice) or (202) 720-1127 (TDD).  USDA is
an equal employment opportunity employer.


Publications may be obtained in hard copy or on diskette by calling the ERS-
NASS order desk toll free at 1-800-999-6779 or by mail from  ERS-NASS, 341
Victory Drive, Herndon, VA 22070.

Bulletins cost $10.00 each for paper products or 3.5" ASCII diskettes.  To
order bulletins by mail, return this form along with your check payable to ERS-
NASS.  The bulletins will also be available on Internet through the Mann
Library at Cornell University (gopher usda.mannlib.cornell.edu 70) at no
charge.
