HDR1012000110080213971500POTATO STOCKS                                          
Potato                                                                          
Stocks                                                                          
National                                                                        
Agricultural                                                                    
Statistics                                                                      
Service                                                                         
                                                                                
USDA                                                                            
Washington, D.C.                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
Released February 13, 1997, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service     
(NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture.  For     
information on "Potato Stocks" call Arvin Budge at (202) 720-4285, office hours 
7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET.  For assistance with general agricultural statistics,
information about NASS, its products or services, contact the Agricultural      
Statistics Hotline at 1-800-727-9540 or E-mail: NASS@NASS.USDA.GOV.             
"Potato Stocks" is available on AutoFax, (202) 720-2000, Report 1800.           
See page 6.                                                                     
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
              Potato Stocks 17 Percent Above Last Year                          
                                                                                
February 1, 1997 potato stocks totaled 220 million cwt, up 17 percent from a    
year earlier and 9 percent above two years ago.  Disappearance was 221 million  
cwt, 8 percent above a year ago and 7 percent above two years ago.  Processing  
accounted for 109 million cwt through January, 6 percent more than last year and
11 percent above two years ago.  Shrink and loss of 23.9 million cwt was up     
4 percent from last year.                                                       
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
Pot 1-2 (2-97)                                                                  
         Fall Potatoes:  Production and Stocks, 15 Major States, 1987-96        
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
   Crop  :          :         :         :         :         :         :         
   Year  :Production:  Dec 1  :  Jan 1  :  Feb 1  :  Mar 1  :  Apr 1  :  May 1  
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
         :                              1,000 Cwt                               
         :                                                                      
1987     : 335,607    225,890   196,760   167,325   138,800   105,905   70,030  
1988     : 305,623    206,420   177,750   151,050   124,485    92,585   59,355  
1989     : 316,097    202,050   173,550   144,290   116,600    84,320   50,675  
1990     : 344,200    225,500   194,460   162,850   134,470   101,150   63,040  
1991     : 363,541    242,070   211,005   178,515   145,820   108,865   69,110  
1992     : 368,516    246,820   215,990   184,560   152,795   115,785   75,040  
1993     : 375,004    249,710   217,800   186,090   154,135   115,970   73,860  
1994     : 408,139    272,290   237,960   201,870   168,050   128,360   87,500  
1995     : 392,942    256,310   223,150   188,960   155,720   116,255   76,170  
1996     : 441,083    291,300   256,520   220,465                               
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        Potatoes:  Quantity Used for Processing, Eight States, 1994-96 1/       
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
     State and     :        :        :        :       :       :       :         
     Crop Year     : Dec 1  : Jan 1  : Feb 1  : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 : Season  
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                   :                         1,000 Cwt                          
                   :                                                            
ID & OR-Malheur Co :                                                            
  1994             : 26,620   34,230   42,330   49,890  57,990  66,680   90,300 
  1995             : 27,310   35,040   43,260   51,530  59,060  66,690   89,250 
  1996             : 31,060   38,210   45,420                                   
                   :                                                            
ME 2/              :                                                            
  1994             :  1,505    1,840    2,265    2,540   2,985   3,330    4,770 
  1995             :  1,335    1,690    2,180    2,520   3,025   3,465    5,225 
  1996             :  1,400    1,725    2,225                                   
                   :                                                            
WA & OR - Other    :                                                            
  1994             : 28,670   33,480   39,120   46,070  52,940  59,540   76,780 
  1995             : 30,000   35,170   39,460   45,280  51,730  57,360   70,250 
  1996             : 31,650   36,590   41,690                                   
                   :                                                            
Oth Sts 3/         :                                                            
  1994             :  8,785   12,070   14,605   17,095  19,840  22,595   32,260 
  1995             : 12,450   15,330   18,415   21,485  24,910  28,010   33,305 
  1996             : 13,660   16,570   20,140                                   
                   :                                                            
Total              :                                                            
  1994             : 65,580   81,620   98,320  115,595 133,755 152,145  204,110 
  1995             : 71,095   87,230  103,315  120,815 138,725 155,525  198,030 
  1996             : 77,770   93,095  109,475                                   
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/  Total quantity received and used for processing regardless of the State in  
    which the potatoes were produced.  Amount excludes quantities used for      
    potato chips in ME, MI, MN, ND, and WI.                                     
2/  Includes Maine grown potatoes only.                                         
3/  MI, MN, ND, and WI.                                                         
                                                                                
         Fall Potatoes:  Production and Stocks on February 1, 1996-97 1/        
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
               :          Crop of 1995          :         Crop of 1996          
               :----------------------------------------------------------------
     State     :          :  Stocks  :    %     :          :  Stocks  :    %    
               :   Prod   :  Feb 1,  :    of    :   Prod   :  Feb 1,  :   of    
               :          :   1996   :   Prod   :          :   1997   :  Prod   
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
               : ---- 1,000 Cwt ---    Percent    ---- 1,000 Cwt ---    Percent 
               :                                                                
CA             :   5,330      2,800       53        4,600      2,500      54    
CO             :  23,808     13,400       56       28,786     17,900      62    
ID             : 132,657     73,500       55      139,960     78,000      56    
ME             :  17,160     10,400       61       21,175     13,100      62    
MI             :  16,350      6,500       40       13,800      5,100      37    
MN             :  20,790     10,200       49       24,600     13,200      54    
MT             :   2,940      2,600       88        3,213      2,850      89    
NE             :   3,680      2,000       54        4,402      2,440      55    
NY             :   7,695      1,500       19        7,980      1,400      18    
ND             :  25,410     11,500       45       28,820     13,800      48    
OH             :   1,404         60        4        1,275         75       6    
OR             :  24,788     12,300       50       31,684     20,000      63    
PA             :   4,080      1,200       29        4,208      1,100      26    
WA             :  80,850     30,500       38       94,990     36,500      38    
WI             :  26,000     10,500       40       31,590     12,500      40    
               :                                                                
Total 15 State : 392,942    188,960       48      441,083    220,465      50    
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                                
                                                                                
           Fall Potatoes:  Stocks by Type as Percent of Total Stocks,           
                      11 Major States, February 1, 1996-97                      
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
               :                          Potato Types                          
               :----------------------------------------------------------------
               :        Reds         :       Whites        :      Russets       
     State     :----------------------------------------------------------------
               :   1996   :   1997   :   1996   :   1997   :   1996   :  1997   
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
               :                            Percent                             
               :                                                                
CO             :     6          6                               94        94    
ID             :                          10         10         90        90    
ME             :     3          2         66         61         31        37    
MI             :                          75         75         25        25    
MN             :    11         14         18         16         71        70    
NY             :     5          5         93         93          2         2    
ND             :    16         16         29         31         55        53    
OR             :     1          1          3          2         96        97    
PA             :     3          3         97         97                         
WA             :     1          1          3          3         96        96    
WI             :     2          5         26         21         72        74    
               :                                                                
11 State Avg   :     3          3         17         15         80        82    
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                                
                   Potato Stocks Up 17 Percent                                  
                                                                                
                                                                                
The 15 major potato States held 220 million cwt of potatoes on February 1, 1997,
up 17 percent from a year earlier and 9 percent above 1995.  Storage accounted  
for 50 percent of 1996 fall production in the storage States, up two points from
last year.  Stocks by type were 3 percent reds, 15 percent whites, and 82 per-  
cent russets with more russets and fewer whites than a year ago.                
                                                                                
                                                                                
Disappearance from the start of harvest to February 1 was 221 million cwt of    
potatoes, up 8 percent from the same period a year earlier and 7 percent above  
two years ago.  Disappearance during January was 36.1 million cwt, up 5 percent 
from last year but slightly less than two years ago.  Shrink and loss to date   
was estimated at 23.9 million cwt, up 4 percent from last year.                 
                                                                                
                                                                                
Processing gained 6 percent to 109 million cwt so far this season and was       
11 percent above two years ago.  In January, processors claimed 16.4 million cwt
of potatoes, up 2 percent from last year but 2 percent short of two years ago.  
                                                                                
                                                                                
Eastern States stored 15.6 million cwt of potatoes on February 1, 1997, up      
19 percent from a year ago and 27 percent above 1995.  Stocks in Maine were up  
26 percent from last year.  Pennsylvania's stocks were down 8 percent, while New
York's holdings were off 7 percent.                                             
                                                                                
                                                                                
Central States' storage accounted for 47.1 million cwt of potatoes this month,  
up 16 percent from 1996 and 20 percent above 1995.  Minnesota's stocks jumped   
29 percent, North Dakota's stocks increased 20 percent and Wisconsin's rose     
19 percent from last year.  Nebraska's stocks increased 22 percent, and Ohio's  
storage held 25 percent more than a year ago.  Michigan's stocks dropped        
22 percent.                                                                     
                                                                                
                                                                                
Western States held 158 million cwt of potatoes in storage on February 1, 1997, 
17 percent above a year ago and 5 percent above two years ago.  Oregon's stocks 
were up substantially at 63 percent above last year, and Colorado jumped        
34 percent from year-ago levels.  Both States were more than 30 percent above   
two years ago.  Washington's stocks were up 20 percent, and Montana's were up   
10 percent.  Idaho, with about half the Western stocks, was up 6 percent.       
California's potato stocks were 11 percent below a year ago.                    
            Reliability of February 1 Stocks Estimates                          
                                                                                
                                                                                
The "Root Mean Square Error" for the February 1 stocks estimate is              
3.3 percent.  This means that the chances are 2 out of 3 that the current       
estimate of 220 million cwt will not be above or below the final estimate by    
more than 3.3 percent or approximately 7.3 million cwt.  Chances are 9 out of 10
(90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 5.7 percent   
or approximately 12.6 million cwt.                                              
                                                                                
The 10-year (1986-97) record of the differences between the February 1 stocks   
estimates and the final estimates averaged 5.2 million cwt, ranging from        
0.2 million to 14.2 million cwt. During the 10-year period, the February        
1 estimate has been below the final estimate 9 out of 10 years.                 
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
           Fall Potato Stocks:  Preliminary and Final February Stocks,          
                             United States, 1986-96                             
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
   Crop   :      Preliminary      :        % of         :         Final         
   Year   :        Stocks         :        Final        :       Stocks 1/       
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          :       1,000 Cwt               Percent               1,000 Cwt       
          :                                                                     
1986      :        150,640                  97.5                 154,545        
1987      :        167,110                  99.9                 167,325        
1988      :        144,625                  95.7                 151,050        
1989      :        143,150                  99.2                 144,290        
1990      :        154,310                  94.8                 162,850        
1991      :        178,965                 100.3                 178,515        
1992      :        170,385                  92.3                 184,560        
1993      :        178,070                  95.7                 186,090        
1994      :        196,005                  97.1                 201,870        
1995      :        184,755                  97.8                 188,960        
1996      :        220,465                                                      
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/  As reported in the September "Potatoes" annual report.                      
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
Note:  Stocks are defined as the quantity (whether sold or not) remaining in    
       storage for all purposes and uses, including seed potatoes not yet moved 
       and shrinkage, waste, and other losses that occur after the date of each 
       report.  Sales of fall potatoes for all purposes for the past 5 years    
       averaged 90.5 percent of the total fall production shrinkage, loss and   
       home use account for the remaining 9.5 percent.  Most seed for use the   
       following year is on hand but remains as part of stocks until planted.   
The next "Potato Stocks" report will be released at 3:00 p.m. ET on March 14,   
1997.                                                                           
                                                                                
                                                                                
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employment opportunity employer.                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
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          USDA Announces Agricultural Outlook Forum  97                         
                     February 24 and 25, 1997                                   
              Omni Shoreham Hotel, Washington, D.C.                             
                                                                                
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                           Agricultural                                         
                             Outlook                                            
                            Forum  97