HDR1012000110080314971500POTATO STOCKS                                          
Potato                                                                          
Stocks                                                                          
National                                                                        
Agricultural                                                                    
Statistics                                                                      
Service                                                                         
                                                                                
USDA                                                                            
Washington, D.C.                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
Released March 14, 1997, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS),
Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture.  For information 
on "Potato Stocks" call Arvin Budge at (202) 720-4285, office hours 7:30 a.m. to
4:00 p.m. ET.                                                                   
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                   Potato Stocks Up 19 Percent                                  
                                                                                
Potato stocks totaled 185 million cwt on March 1, 1997, up 19 percent from a    
year ago and 9 percent above two years ago.  Disappearance, at 257 million cwt, 
was record high, 8 percent above last year and 7 percent above the previous     
record high from the 1994 crop.  Shrink and loss of 26.7 million cwt was up     
4 percent from a year ago.  Processor usage, at 129 million cwt, was up         
7 percent for the season.  February processing was up 14 percent from the same  
month a year earlier.                                                           
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
Pot 1-2 (3-97)                                                                  
         Fall Potatoes:  Production and Stocks, 15 Major States, 1987-96        
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   Crop  :          :         :         :         :         :         :         
   Year  :Production:  Dec 1  :  Jan 1  :  Feb 1  :  Mar 1  :  Apr 1  :  May 1  
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
         :                              1,000 Cwt                               
         :                                                                      
1987     : 335,607    225,890   196,760   167,325   138,800   105,905   70,030  
1988     : 305,623    206,420   177,750   151,050   124,485    92,585   59,355  
1989     : 316,097    202,050   173,550   144,290   116,600    84,320   50,675  
1990     : 344,200    225,500   194,460   162,850   134,470   101,150   63,040  
1991     : 363,541    242,070   211,005   178,515   145,820   108,865   69,110  
1992     : 368,516    246,820   215,990   184,560   152,795   115,785   75,040  
1993     : 375,004    249,710   217,800   186,090   154,135   115,970   73,860  
1994     : 408,139    272,290   237,960   201,870   168,050   128,360   87,395  
1995     : 392,942    256,310   223,150   188,960   155,720   116,255   76,170  
1996     : 441,083    291,300   256,520   220,465   184,565                     
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        Potatoes:  Quantity Used for Processing, Eight States, 1994-96 1/       
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
     State and     :        :        :        :       :       :       :         
     Crop Year     : Dec 1  : Jan 1  : Feb 1  : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 : Season  
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                   :                         1,000 Cwt                          
                   :                                                            
ID & OR-Malheur Co :                                                            
  1994             : 26,620   34,230   42,330   49,890  57,990  66,680   90,300 
  1995             : 27,310   35,040   43,260   51,530  59,060  66,690   89,250 
  1996             : 31,060   38,210   45,420   54,640                          
                   :                                                            
ME 2/              :                                                            
  1994             :  1,505    1,840    2,265    2,540   2,985   3,330    4,770 
  1995             :  1,335    1,690    2,180    2,520   3,025   3,465    5,225 
  1996             :  1,400    1,725    2,225    2,520                          
                   :                                                            
WA & OR - Other    :                                                            
  1994             : 28,670   33,480   39,120   46,070  52,940  59,540   76,780 
  1995             : 30,000   35,170   39,460   45,280  51,730  57,360   70,250 
  1996             : 31,650   36,590   41,690   48,740                          
                   :                                                            
Oth Sts 3/         :                                                            
  1994             :  8,785   12,070   14,605   17,095  19,840  22,595   32,260 
  1995             : 12,450   15,330   18,415   21,485  24,910  28,010   33,305 
  1996             : 13,660   16,570   20,140   23,500                          
                   :                                                            
Total              :                                                            
  1994             : 65,580   81,620   98,320  115,595 133,755 152,145  204,110 
  1995             : 71,095   87,230  103,315  120,815 138,725 155,525  198,030 
  1996             : 77,770   93,095  109,475  129,400                          
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1/  Total quantity received and used for processing regardless of the State in  
    which the potatoes were produced.  Amount excludes quantities used for      
    potato chips in ME, MI, MN, ND, and WI.                                     
2/  Includes Maine grown potatoes only.                                         
3/  MI, MN, ND, and WI.                                                         
          Fall Potatoes:  Production and Stocks on March 1, 1996-97 1/          
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
               :          Crop of 1995          :         Crop of 1996          
               :----------------------------------------------------------------
     State     :          :  Stocks  :    %     :          :  Stocks  :    %    
               :   Prod   :  Mar 1,  :    of    :   Prod   :  Mar 1,  :   of    
               :          :   1996   :   Prod   :          :   1997   :  Prod   
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
               : ---- 1,000 Cwt ---    Percent    ---- 1,000 Cwt ---    Percent 
               :                                                                
CA             :   5,330      2,300       43        4,600      2,200      48    
CO             :  23,808     11,200       47       28,786     15,300      53    
ID             : 132,657     62,500       47      139,960     66,000      47    
ME             :  17,160      8,500       50       21,175     11,200      53    
MI             :  16,350      4,800       29       13,800      4,000      29    
MN             :  20,790      8,700       42       24,600     11,500      47    
MT             :   2,940      2,500       85        3,213      2,700      84    
NE             :   3,680    2/1,420                 4,402    2/1,915            
NY             :   7,695        900       12        7,980        900      11    
ND             :  25,410      9,200       36       28,820     11,500      40    
OH             :   1,404         2/                 1,275         2/            
OR             :  24,788      9,900       40       31,684     16,800      53    
PA             :   4,080        800       20        4,208        750      18    
WA             :  80,850     25,000       31       94,990     30,000      32    
WI             :  26,000      8,000       31       31,590      9,800      31    
               :                                                                
Total 15 State : 392,942    155,720       40      441,083    184,565      42    
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/  Stocks include processor holdings and seed to plant 1997 crop.  A total of  
    30.4 million cwt was used to plant the 1996 crop.                           
2/  Combined to prevent possible disclosure of individual operations.           
                   Potato Stocks Up 19 Percent                                  
                                                                                
                                                                                
March 1, 1997 potato stocks totaled 185 million cwt, up 19 percent from last    
year and 9 percent above two years ago.  Stocks account for 42 percent of the   
1996 fall potato production in the 15 storage States, up two points from a year 
ago.                                                                            
                                                                                
                                                                                
Disappearance from harvest through February totaled a record high 257 million   
cwt, up 8 percent from last year and 7 percent above two years ago.  February   
disappearance of 35.9 million was 8 percent above a year ago.  This includes    
potatoes fed to livestock.  Shrinkage and loss to date was 26.7 million cwt, up 
4 percent from the 25.6 million cwt lost last year and 2 percent above          
26.2 million cwt lost two years ago.                                            
                                                                                
                                                                                
Processors used 129 million cwt to March 1, 1997, up 7 percent from a year ago  
and 12 percent above two years ago.  February processing of 19.9 million cwt of 
potatoes gained 14 percent on a year ago and 15 percent on the 1994 crop.       
                                                                                
                                                                                
Eastern States March 1 storage totaled 12.9 million cwt of potatoes, up         
26 percent from last year and 39 percent above 1995.  Maine's stocks were up    
32 percent from a year ago.  New York's stocks were equal to last year and      
Pennsylvania's were down 6 percent.                                             
                                                                                
                                                                                
Central States accounted for 38.7 million cwt of potato stocks this March, up   
21 percent from last year and 24 percent above two years ago.  Minnesota's      
stocks were up 32 percent from last year, while Nebraska's storage was up       
35 percent.  North Dakota gained 25 percent and Wisconsin was up 23 percent from
a year ago.  Michigan's stocks were down 17 percent.                            
                                                                                
                                                                                
Western States held 133 million cwt of potatoes in storage on March 1, 1997.    
This is up 17 percent from last year and 4 percent above two years ago.  Idaho's
stocks were up 6 percent and accounted for 50 percent of the Western total.     
Oregon's stocks were up 70 percent and Washington was 20 percent above a year   
earlier.  Colorado's stocks were up 37 percent from last year and Montana's     
storage was up 8 percent.  California's stocks were down 4 percent.             
              Reliability of March 1 Stocks Estimate                            
                                                                                
                                                                                
The "Root Mean Square Error" for the March 1 stocks estimate is 3.8 percent.    
This means that chances are two out of three that the current estimate of 185   
million cwt will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 3.8      
percent or approximately 7.0 million cwt.  Chances are nine out of 10 (90       
percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 6.6 percent or    
approximately 12.2 million cwt.                                                 
                                                                                
The 10-year (1986-1995) record of the differences between the March 1 stocks    
estimates and the final estimates averaged 4.9 million cwt, ranging from 0.4    
million to 13.1 million cwt.  During the 10-year period, the March 1 estimate   
has been below the final estimate nine out of 10 years.                         
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
            Fall Potato Stocks:  Preliminary and Final March Stocks,            
                             United States, 1986-96                             
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
   Crop   :      Preliminary      :        % of         :         Final         
   Year   :        Stocks         :        Final        :       Stocks 1/       
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          :       1,000 Cwt               Percent               1,000 Cwt       
          :                                                                     
1986      :        124,820                  97.0                 128,720        
1987      :        137,950                  99.4                 138,800        
1988      :        118,960                  95.6                 124,485        
1989      :        115,780                  99.3                 116,600        
1990      :        126,030                  93.7                 134,470        
1991      :        146,180                 100.2                 145,820        
1992      :        139,665                  91.4                 152,795        
1993      :        146,080                  94.8                 154,135        
1994      :        163,305                  97.2                 168,050        
1995      :        152,255                  97.8                 155,720        
1996      :        184,565                                                      
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1/  As reported in the September "Potato" annual report.                        
                                                                                
                                                                                
Note:  Stocks are defined as the quantity (whether sold or not) remaining in    
       storage for all purposes and uses, including seed potatoes not yet moved 
       and shrinkage, waste, and other losses that occur after the date of each 
       report.  Sales of fall potatoes for all purposes for the past 5 years    
       averaged 90.5 percent of the total fall production shrinkage, loss and   
       home use account for the remaining 9.5 percent.  Most seed for use the   
       following year is on hand but remains as part of stocks until planted.   
The next "Potato Stocks" report will be released at 3:00 p.m. ET on April 14,   
1997.                                                                           
                                                                                
                                                                                
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To file a complaint, write the Secretary of Agriculture, USDA, Washington, D.C.,
20250, or call (202) 720-7327 (voice) or (202) 720-1127 (TDD).  USDA is an equal
employment opportunity employer.                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
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