NIST

A11105 13D634 OBLIGATIONS

NISTIR 85-3273-12

(Rev. 4/97)

Energy Price Indices and Discount Factors

for Life-Cycle Cost Analysis - April 1997

Sieglinde K. Fuller

Annual Supplement to

NIST Handbook 135 and

NBS Special Publication 709

QC

100

.U56

NO. 85-3273

-12

U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

Technology Administration

National Institute of Standards

and Technology

Prepared for

United States Department of Energy

Federal Energy Management Program

April 1997

NISTIR 85-3273-12

ENERGY PRICE INDICES AND DISCOUNT FACTORS

FOR LIFE-CYCLE COST ANALYSIS

Annual Supplement to NIST Handbook 135 and NBS Special Publication 709

April 1, 1997 to March 31, 1998

Data for the Federal Methodology for Life-Cycle Cost Analysis, Title 10, CFR, Part 436, Subpart A;

and for the Energy Conservation Mandatory Performance Standards for New

Federal Residential Buildings, Title 10, CFR, Part 435

Sieglinde K. Fuller

Office of Applied Economics

April 1997

Building and Fire Research Laboratory

National Institute of Standards and Technology

Gaithersburg, Maryland 20899

Sponsored by:

The Federal Energy Management Program

U.S. Department of Energy

Washington, DC 20585

U.S. Department of Commerce

William A. Daley, Secretary

Technology Administration

MaryL. Good, Under Secretaryfor Technology

National Institute of Standards and Technology

Robert E. Hebner, Acting Director

ABSTRACT

This is the April 1997 edition of energy price indices and discount factors for performing life-cycle cost analyses of energy and water conservation and renewable energy projects in federal facilities. It will be

effective from April 1, 1997 to March 31, 1998. This publication supports the federal life-cycle costing

methodology by updating the energy price projections and discount factors that are described, explained, and

illustrated in NIST Handbook 135 (HB 135, Life-Cycle Costing Manualfor the Federal Energy Management

Program.) It supports private-sector life-cycle cost analysis by updating the energy price indices that are described, explained, and illustrated in NBS Special Publication 709 (SP 709). It also supports the Energy

Conservation Mandatory Performance Standards for New Federal Residential Buildings (10 CFR 435) by

providing a table of factors for updating appliance label values.
PREFACE

This is the April 1997 Annual Supplement to NIST Handbook 135, Life-Cycle Costing Manualfor the

Federal Energy Management Program. The annual supplement provides energy price indices and

discount factors for use with the Federal Energy Management Program's procedures for life-cycle cost

analysis, as established by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) in Subpart A of Part 436 of Title 1 0 of

the Code of Federal Regulations (10 CFR Part 436, Subpart A), and amplified in NIST Handbook 135.

These indices and factors are provided as an aid to implementing life-cycle cost evaluations of potential

energy and water conservation and renewable energy investments in existing and new federally owned

and leased buildings.

Historically, the Annual Supplement to NIST Handbook 135 has been published in October of each year

for use throughout the following fiscal year. However, the energy price projections from DOE's Energy

Information Administration (ELA) that serve as the basis of much of this report are released in January,

and the discount rates from the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) Circular A-94 are released in February, so that much of the data in this report are out of date after only a few months of their intended

life. As a result, DOE has now requested that NIST produce this Annual Supplement as soon as practical

after the necessary data are available. This edition was prepared in April to supersede the FY97 edition

released in October 1996. In future years NIST will continue to produce the Annual Supplement in April.

This Annual Supplement is intended for use from April 1, 1997 to March 31, 1998. The April 1997

edition of the NIST BLCC program and related NIST software for LCC analysis are being released at the same time as this Annual Supplement, for use over the same time period. These software products are discussed on the next page.

At the request of a number of users, DOS text files of both the underlying EIA energy price projections

and the tables in this Annual Supplement have been made available by NIST. For information on

obtaining these files, contact the author by e-mail at sieglinde.fuller@nist.gov.

The life-cycle costing methods and procedures as set forth in 10 CFR, Part 436, Subpart A, are to be

followed by all federal agencies, unless specifically exempted, in evaluating the cost effectiveness of

potential energy and water conservation and renewable energy investments in federally owned and leased

buildings.

As called for by legislation, the National Institute of Standards and Technology has provided technical

assistance to the U.S. Department of Energy in the development and implementation of life-cycle costing

methods and procedures. This is the second of a three-volume set which together provide the methods,

data, and computational tools for life-cycle cost analysis of federal energy projects.

Included in the three-volume set for federal life-cycle cost analysis are the following:

(1) Life-Cycle Costing Manualfor the Federal Energy Management Program , National Institute of

Standards and Technology, Handbook 135 (1995).

The manual is a guide to understanding life-cycle costing and related methods of economic analysis as they are applied to federal decisions, especially those subject to DOE 10 CFR 436 rules related to the

economic analysis of energy and water conservation projects and renewable resource projects. It describes

the required procedures and assumptions, defines and explains how to apply and interpret economic

performance measures, gives examples of federal decision problems and their solutions, explains how

to use the energy price indices and discount factors that are updated annually in the supplement, and

IV
provides worksheets and other computational aids and instructions for calculating the required measures. The 1995 edition of Handbook 135 is a complete revision of the 1987 edition, with updated information on the FEMP LCC requirements of 10 CFR 436.

(2) Energy Price Indices and Discount Factorsfor Life-Cycle Cost Analysis, Annual Supplement to NIST Handbook 135 and NBS Special Publication 709, National Institute of Standards and

Technology, NISTIR 85-3273.

This report, which is updated annually, provides the current DOE discount rate, projected energy price

indices, and corresponding discount factors needed to estimate the present value of future energy and non- energy project-related costs. The energy price indices were provided by the Energy Information

Administration of the U.S. Department of Energy. Request the latest edition when ordering. (This is the

report that you are holding in your hands.)

(3) NIST "Building Life-Cycle Cost" (BLCC) Computer Program, National Institute of Standards and

Technology, NISTIR 4481 (User's Guide dated January 1995). Use version 4.5-97 for the period

from April 1, 1997 to March 31, 1998.

The NIST Building Life-Cycle Cost program provides comprehensive economic analysis capabilities for

the evaluation of proposed capital investments that are expected to reduce the long-term operating costs of buildings and building systems. The BLCC program is designed to run on IBM PC and compatible

microcomputers in a MS-DOS environment. The BLCC program computes the LCC for project

alternative, compares project alternatives in order to determine which has the lowest LCC, performs

annual cash flow analysis, and computes net savings, the savings-to-investment ratio (SIR), and adjusted

internal rate of return (AIRR) for project alternatives over their designated study period. BLCC can be

used to perform economic analysis of capital investment projects undertaken by federal, state, and local

government agencies, as well as by the private sector. BLCC (version 4.5-97) uses the same DOE/EIA

energy price projections included in the Annual Supplement to Handbook 135. In its application to federal energy conservation and renewable energy projects, BLCC is consistent with NIST Handbook 1 35

(see #1 above). In its application to non-energy projects, BLCC is consistent with OMB Circular A-94.

In its application to private-sector and non-federal public-sector projects, BLCC is consistent with ASTM

standards for building economics.

Included on the BLCC disk is the QuickBLCC program, a simplified version of BLCC which can be used

to set up an analysis of multiple project alternatives. Also included is the DISCOUNT program (version

3.6-97), which can calculate present value, future value, and annual value factors for any discount rate and study period. DISCOUNT can access the DOE energy price projections included on the BLCC disk

to compute the UPV* factors needed for federal LCC analyses of energy projects, consistent with the

factors included in this report. Two additional programs, ERATES (for use with complex electricity rate schedules) and EMISS (for generating local air pollution emission factors in BLCC analyses) are also

available with BLCC.

The U.S. Department of Energy was directed by legislation and executive order to make available to the

private sector the methods, procedures, and related aids developed for federal use. In response to this directive, the National Institute of Standards and Technology, under sponsorship of the U.S. Department

of Energy, published a life-cycle costing book for use by the private sector entitled Comprehensive Guuh

for Least-Cost Energy Decisions, NBS SP 709 (January 1987). The private sector guide is supported b\

the data provided here, as well as by the BLCC computer program. The BLCC program supersedes die

v
NBSLCC program which is documented in SP 709. BLCC provides LCC computational support for

private sector projects as well as for federal projects.

To order any of these publications and software products call:

Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Clearing House

(800) DOE-EREN (800-363-3732)

or write or fax your order to:

U.S. Department of Energy

Federal Energy Management Program, EE-90

1000 Independence Avenue, S.W.

Washington, DC 20585-0121

Fax: 202-586-3000

BLCC and related LCC software may also be purchased from the following vendors:

FlowSoft

5 Oak Forest Court

Saint Charles, MO 63303

(314) 441-1022

Energy Information Services

P.O. Box 381

St. Johnsbury, VT 05819-0381

(802) 748-5148

or downloaded via Internet from the FEMP home page at http://www.eren.doe.gov/femp (click on icons

Technical Assistance - Analytical Software Tools).

Workshops on the life-cycle costing method and energy analysis are conducted at locations around the

country each year. The workshops include training and software for both BLCC and an energy analysis

computer program called "A Simplified Energy Analysis Method" (ASEAM). A schedule of workshops

can be obtained from DOE/FEMP at (202) 586-8017, Fax (202) 586-3000.

Three video training films in a series entitled "Least-Cost Energy Decisions for Buildings" have been

prepared by NIST. These films include "Introduction to Life-Cycle Costing," "Uncertainty and Risk," and

"Choosing Economic Evaluation Methods." The video films and companion workbooks can be ordered

from Video Transfer, Inc., 5709-B Arundel Avenue, Rockville, MD 20852, Telephone (301) 881-0270,

Fax (301) 770-9131.

Further information on the Federal Energy Management Program can be obtained from the Federal

Energy Management Program Staff, Office of the Assistant Secretary for Energy Efficiency and

Renewable Energy, U.S. Department of Energy. Please direct communication to: FEMP, CE 10.1, U.S.

Department of Energy, 1000 Independence Avenue, SW, Washington, DC 20585.

vi
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

The author wishes to thank Mr. Theodore Collins of the Federal Energy Management Program of the U.S.

Department of Energy (DOE) for his continued support and direction of this work. Appreciation is extended to Mr. Art Andersen, Director of the Energy Demand and Integration Division, and Susan Shaw,

Chief, and Paul Condis of the National Energy Modeling System Branch, DOE Energy Information

Administration, for providing the energy price projections upon which this report is based. I am also

grateful to Stephen R. Petersen, who previously prepared this publication, for his help and to Laurene

Linsenmayer for her assistance in editing and producing this document.

vii
CONTENTS

Page

ABSTRACT iii PREFACE iv ACKNOWLEDGMENTS vii

LIST OF TABLES ix

ABBREVIATIONS xii

INTRODUCTION 1

PART I: TABLES FOR FEDERAL LIFE-CYCLE COST ANALYSIS 3

A. Single Present Value and Uniform Present Value Factors for Non-Fuel Costs 3

B. Modified Uniform Present Value Factors for Fuel Costs 11 B. 1. FEMP Modified Uniform Present Value Factors 14

B.2. OMB Modified Uniform Present Value Factors 20

C. Projected Average Fuel Price Indices and Escalation Rates (Real) 26

D. Factors for Updating Appliance Label Values 43

PART II: ENERGY PRICE INDICES FOR PRIVATE SECTOR LCC ANALYSIS 44

viii
LIST OF TABLES

Page

A-l.

A-2.

A-3a

A-3b

A-3c

Ba-1.

Ba-2.

Ba-3.

Ba-4.

Ba-5.

Bb-1.

SPV factors for finding the present value of future single costs (non-fuel) 6

UPV factors for finding the present value of future annually recurring uniform costs (nonfuel) 7

UPV* factors for finding the present value of annually recurring costs changing at

at a constant escalation rate, DOE discount rate (3.8%) 8

UPV* factors for finding the present value of annually recurring costs changing at

at a constant escalation rate, OMB short-term discount rate (3.4%) 9

UPV* factors for finding the present value of annually recurring costs changing at

at a constant escalation rate, OMB long-term discount rate (3.6%) 10

FEMP UPV* discount factors adjusted for fuel price escalation, by end-use sector and fuel

type. Discount Rate = 3.8% (DOE). Census Region 1 (Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts,

New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont) ... 15

FEMP UPV* discount factors adjusted for fuel price escalation, by end-use sector and fuel

type. Discount Rate = 3.8% (DOE). Census Region 2 (Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas,

Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, South Dakota,

Wisconsin) 16

FEMP UPV* discount factors adjusted for fuel price escalation, by end-use sector and fuel type. Discount Rate = 3.8% (DOE). Census Region 3 (Alabama, Arkansas, Delaware,

District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Mississippi, North

Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, West Virginia) .... 17

FEMP UPV* discount factors adjusted for fuel price escalation, by end-use sector and fuel type. Discount Rate = 3.8% (DOE). Census Region 4 (Alaska, Arizona, California.

Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Utah, Washington,

Wyoming) 18

FEMP UPV* discount factors adjusted for fuel price escalation, by end-use sector and fuel type. Discount Rate = 3.8% (DOE). United States average 19

OMB UPV* discount factors adjusted for fuel price escalation, by end-use sector and fuel type. Discount Rate = 3.4% (years 1-10) and 3.6% (years 1 1-30), (OMB Circular A-94)

Census Region 1 (Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey . New,

York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont) 21

IX
LIST OF TABLES (continued)

Page

Bb-2. OMB UPV* discount factors adjusted for fuel price escalation, by end-use sector and fuel

type. Discount Rate = 3.4% (years 1-10) and 3.6% (years 11-30), (OMB Circular A-94).

Census Region 2 (Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska,

North Dakota, Ohio, South Dakota, Wisconsin) 22

Bb-3. OMB UPV* discount factors adjusted for fuel price escalation, by end-use sector and fuel

type. Discount Rate = 3.4% (years 1-10) and 3.6% (years 11-30), (OMB Circular A-94).

Census Region 3 (Alabama, Arkansas, Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia,

Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Mississippi, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina,

Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, West Virginia) 23

Bb-4. OMB UPV* discount factors adjusted for fuel price escalation, by end-use sector and fuel

type. Discount Rate = 3.4% (years 1-10) and 3.6% (years 11-30), (OMB Circular A-94).

Census Region 4 (Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Montana, Nevada,

New Mexico, Oregon, Utah, Washington, Wyoming) 24

Bb-5. OMB UPV* discount factors adjusted for fuel price escalation, by end-use sector and fuel

type. Discount Rate = 3.4% (years 1-10) and 3.6% (years 1 1-30), (OMB Circular A-94).

United States average 25

Ca-1. Projected fuel price indices (excluding general inflation) by end-use sector and fuel type.

Census Region 1 (Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New

York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont) 28

Ca-2. Projected fuel price indices (excluding general inflation) by end-use sector and fuel type.

Census Region 2 (Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska,

North Dakota, Ohio, South Dakota, Wisconsin) 30

Ca-3. Projected fuel price indices (excluding general inflation) by end-use sector and fuel type.

Census Region 3 (Alabama, Arkansas, Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia,

Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Mississippi, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina,

Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, West Virginia) 32

Ca-4. Projected fuel price indices (excluding general inflation) by end-use sector and fuel type.

Census Region 4 (Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Montana, Nevada,

New Mexico, Oregon, Utah, Washington, Wyoming) 34

Ca-5. Projected fuel price indices (excluding general inflation) by end-use sector and fuel type.

United States average 36

Cb-1. Projected average fuel price escalation rates (excluding general price inflation), by end-use

sector and fuel type. Census Region 1 (Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire,

New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont) 38

x
LIST OF TABLES (continued)

Page

Cb-2. Projected average fuel price escalation rates (excluding general price inflation), by end-use

sector and fuel type. Census Region 2 (Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota,

Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, South Dakota, Wisconsin) 39

Cb-3. Projected average fuel price escalation rates (excluding general price inflation), by end-use

sector and fuel type. Census Region 3 (Alabama, Arkansas, Delaware, District of Columbia,

Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Mississippi, North Carolina, Oklahoma,

South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, West Virginia) 40

Cb-4. Projected average fuel price escalation rates (excluding general price inflation), by end-use

sector and fuel type. Census Region 4 (Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Hawaii,

Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Utah, Washington, Wyoming) .... 41

Cb-5. Projected average fuel price escalation rates (excluding general price inflation), by end-use

sector and fuel type. United States average 42

D. Factors for updating appliance label values from 1987 to 1996 dollars 43

S-l. Projected fuel price indices with assumed general price inflation rates of 3, 4, 5, and 6

percent, by end-use sector and fuel type. Census Region 1 (Connecticut, Maine,

Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island,

Vermont) 46

S-2. Projected fuel price indices with assumed general price inflation rates of 3, 4, 5, and 6

percent, by end-use sector and fuel type. Census Region 2 (Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas,

Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, South Dakota, Wisconsin) .... 48

S-3. Projected fuel price indices with assumed general price inflation rates of 3, 4, 5, and 6

percent, by end-use sector and fuel type. Census Region 3 (Alabama, Arkansas, Delaware,

District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Mississippi, North

Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, West Virginia) .... 50

S-4. Projected fuel price indices with assumed general price inflation rates of 3, 4, 5, and 6

percent, by end-use sector and fuel type. Census Region 4 (Alaska, Arizona, California,

Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Utah, Washington.

Wyoming) 52

S-5. Projected fuel price indices with assumed general price inflation rates of 3, 4, 5, and 6

percent, by end-use sector and fuel type. United States average 54

xi
ABBREVIATIONS

A Annual amount

A0 Annual amount at base-date prices

AE097 Annual Energy Outlook 1 997 (DOE-EIA publication)

ASTM American Society for Testing and Materials

BLCC NIST Building Life Cycle Cost computer program

COAL Coal

d discount rate DIST Distillate Oil

DOE U.S. Department of Energy

e price escalation rate (annual rate of price change)

EIA Energy Information Administration (DOE)

ELEC Electricity

FEMP Federal Energy Management Program

FY Fiscal Year

GASLN Gasoline

LCC Life-Cycle Cost

LPG Liquefied petroleum gas

N Number of discount periods (in years)

NEMS National Energy Modeling System

NIST National Institute of Standards and Technology

NTGAS Natural Gas

OMB Office of Management and Budget

RESID Residual Oil

SPV Single Present Value (factor)

UPV Uniform Present Value (factor)

UPV* Modified Uniform Present Value (factor)

xii
INTRODUCTION

This report provides tables of present- value factors for use in the life-cycle cost analysis of capital

investment projects for federal facilities. It also provides energy price indices based on Department of

Energy (DOE) forecasts from 1997 to 2027. The factors and indices presented in this report are useful

for determining the present value of future project-related costs, especially those related to operational

energy costs. Discount factors included in this report are based on two different federal sources: (1) the

DOE discount rate for projects related to energy conservation, renewable energy resources, and water

conservation; and (2) Office of Management and Budget (OMB) discount rates from Circular A-94 for use with most other capital investment projects in federal facilities.

The DOE discount rate for 1997 is 3.8% real (i.e., net of general price inflation) or 6.9% nominal

(including inflation). The DOE discount rate is based on long-term Treasury bond rates averaged over

the 1 2 months prior to the preparation of this report. The nominal, or market rate, is converted to a real

rate using the projected rate of general price inflation (2.9%) from the Economic Report of the President's

Council of Economic Advisors, to correspond with the constant-dollar analysis approach that is used in most federal life-cycle cost (LCC) analyses. Federal agencies and contractors to federal agencies are required by 10 CFR 436 to use the DOE discount rate when conducting LCC analyses related to energy

conservation, renewable energy resources, and water conservation projects for federal facilities. OMB Circular A-94 on guidelines and discount rates for benefit-cost analysis of federal programs was

extensively revised in October 1992. There is no longer a single OMB discount rate as in the past. OMB

has specified two basic types of discount rates: (1) a discount rate for cost-effectiveness, lease-purchase,

and related analyses; and (2) a discount rate for public investment and regulatory analyses. Only discount

rates for the first type of analyses are included in this Annual Supplement, since the primary purpose of

this report is to support cost-effectiveness studies related to the design and operation of federal facilities. OMB discount rates for cost-effectiveness and lease-purchase studies are based on interest rates on

Treasury Notes and Bonds with maturities ranging from 3 to 30 years. Currently (as of January 1997) five

maturities have been specifically identified by OMB, and are shown here with the corresponding real

interest rate to be used as the discount rate for studies subject to OMB Circular A-94:

Maturity: 3 -year 5 -year 7-year 10-vear 30-year

Rate: 3.2% 3.3% 3.4% 3.5% 3.6%

OMB suggests that the actual discount rate for an economic analysis be interpolated from these maturities

and rates, based on the study period used in the analysis. Due to limitations on the size of this Annual

Supplement, discount factors for only two of these maturities are presented: factors for short-term

analyses (up to 10 years) based on the 7-year real rate (3.4%), and factors for long-term analyses (longer

than 10 years) based on the 30-year real rate (3.6%). As a result, these discount factors are for

approximation purposes only. It is suggested that the NIST Building Life Cycle Cost (BLCC) or DISCOUNT programs be used to compute the present value factors for the discount rate corresponding

to the length of the study period when approximate values are not satisfactory for the project analysis.

(See preface for details on obtaining these programs.)

The energy price indices and corresponding present value factors published in this report are computed

from energy price forecasts provided to NIST by the Department of Energy’s Energy Information

1
Administration (EIA). The EIA energy price forecast used in this report was the most recent available at the time that this report was prepared. A description of the methodology used by EIA to project energy

prices through 2027 is included in section B of this report. DOE has not projected escalation rates for

water prices to be used in the LCC analysis of water conservation projects. Water escalation rates should

be obtained from the local water utility when possible.

Federal agencies and contractors to federal agencies are encouraged to seek energy price projections from

their local utility to use in place of the DOE/EIA regional projections, especially when evaluating

alternative fuel types. In such cases the NIST BLCC or DISCOUNT programs can be used to calculate

appropriate "modified uniform present value" (UPV*) factors for use in the LCC analysis of federal

energy conservation or renewable resource projects. Otherwise, 10 CFR 436 requires the use of the DOE

energy price forecasts when conducting LCC analyses of such projects. The UPV* factors for energy

costs presented in this report have been precalculated with the DOE forecast data. Thus the use of these

UPV* factors automatically ensures that the DOE forecast data have been included in the analysis.

All of the tables of discount factors contained in this report are based on real discount rates and are therefore intended for use only with economic analyses conducted in constant dollars (in which the

purchasing power of the dollar is held constant). The energy price escalation rates and corresponding

energy price indices contained in this report are also expressed in real terms. If nominal discount rates and current dollar costs (which both include inflation) are used in the LCC analyses of federal projects, use the BLCC computer program in the "general analysis" mode.

This report uses the term "present value" instead of "present worth" for the discount factors presented.

The meaning of these two terms is considered to be identical for purposes of economic analysis. This

change in terminology was made to be consistent with the terms used in the American Society for Testing

and Materials (ASTM) compilation of standards on building economics (ASTM Standards on Building

Economics, Third Edition, ASTM, Philadelphia, PA, 1994.)

In all of the tables, the “end-of-year” discounting convention is used, that is, all factors and indices are computed to adjust future dollar amounts to present value from the end of the year in which they are expected to occur. Because the publication date of this supplement is April 1 , 1997, the year begins April

1 and ends March 31. “End-of-year” discounting therefore means that the factors are computed to discount to present value dollar amounts incurred one year from April 1.

2
PARTI: TABLES FOR FEDERAL LIFE-CYCLE COST

ANALYSIS

A. Single Present Value and Uniform Present Value Factors for Non-Fuel Costs

Table A-l presents the single present value (SPV) factors for finding the present value of future non-fuel,

non-annually recurring costs, such as repair and replacement costs and salvage values. The formula for

finding the present value (P) of a future cost occurring in year t (Ct ) is the following:

P = C,x = Cr x SPVt

, (1 + df

where d

t

discount rate, and

number of time periods (years) between the present time and the time the cost is incurred.

Table A-2 presents uniform present value (UPV) factors for finding the present value of future non-fuel

costs recurring annually, such as routine maintenance costs. The formula for finding the present value (P)

of an annually recurring uniform cost (A) is the following:

P A x

+ d)N - \

d{ 1 + d) N

= A x UPVN ,

where d = discount rate, and

N = number of time periods (years) over which A recurs.

Tables A-3(a,b,c) present modified uniform present value (UPV*) factors for finding the present value

of annually recurring non-fuel costs, such as water costs, which are expected to change from year to year

at a constant rate of change (or escalation rate) over the study period. The escalation rate can be positive

or negative. The formula for finding the present value (P) of an annually recurring cost at base-date prices

(A0) changing at escalation rate e is the following:

P = A0 x

1 + e d - e

1 -

1 + e

1 + d

= A) * upv'h

orP = A0 x N = A0 x UPV*N

(d = e),

(d * e)

where A0 d

eN

= annually recurring cost at base-date prices, = discount rate, = escalation rate, and = number of time periods (years) over which A recurs.

Note: if the discount rate is expressed in real terms, i.e., net ofgeneral inflation, then the escalation rate must also be expressed in real terms. If the discount rate is expressed in nominal terms, i.e.. including

general inflation, then the escalation rate must also be expressed in nominal terms.

3
In tables A-l, A-2, and A-3(a,b,c) SPV, UPV, and UPV* factors are provided for both the DOE and the

OMB Circular A-94 real discount rates current as of the date of this publication. The FEMP SPV, UPV,

and UPV* factors were computed using the DOE discount rate. The FEMP factors are for finding the

present value of future costs associated with federal energy and water conservation projects and

renewable energy projects. The OMB SPV, UPV, and UPV* factors were computed using the OMB

discount rate. The OMB factors are for finding the present value of future costs associated with most

other federal projects (except those specifically exempted from OMB Circular A-94). The DOE and OMB

discount rates used in computing these tables are real rates, exclusive of general price inflation. Thus the

resulting discount factors are intended for use with future costs that are stated in constant dollars.

Examples of How to Use the Factors:

SPV (FEMP): To compute the present value of a replacement cost expected to occur in the 8th year for an energy efficient heating system, go to Table A-l, find the 3.8% SPV factor for year 8 (0.742), and

multiply the factor by the replacement cost as of the base date.

SPV (OMB, Short-term): To compute the present value of a repair cost in the 5th year for a floor

covering (non-energy related), go to Table A-l , find the 3.4% SPV factor for year 5 (0.846), and multiply

the factor by the repair cost as of the base date.

SPV (OMB, Long-term): To compute the present value of a repair cost in the 15th year for a floor

covering (non-energy related), go to Table A-l, find the 3.6% SPV factor for year 15 (0.588), and

multiply the factor by the repair cost as of the base date.

UPV (FEMP): To compute the present value of an annually recurring maintenance cost for a renewable

energy system over 20 years, go to Table A-2, find the 3.8% UPV factor for 20 years (13.83), and

multiply the factor by the annual maintenance cost as of the base date.

UPV (OMB, Short-term): To compute the present value of annually recurring costs of office cleaning over 10 years (for a project not primarily related to energy conservation), go to Table A-2, find the 3.4%

UPV factor for 10 years (8.36), and multiply the factor by the annual cleaning cost as of the base date. UPV (OMB, Long-term): To compute the present value of annually recurring costs of office cleaning over 25 years (for a project not primarily related to energy conservation), got to Table A-2, find the 3.6%

UPV factor for 25 years (16.30), and multiply the factor by the annual cleaning cost as of the base date.

UPV* (all): To compute the present value of annually recurring costs of water usage which are expected

to increase at 2% faster than the rate of general inflation over 25 years, find the UPV* factor from table

A-3 (a,b, or c as appropriate) that corresponds to 2% escalation and a 25 year study period. From table

A-3a (3.8% DOE discount rate) the corresponding UPV* factor is 20.07. Multiply this factor by the

annual water cost as computed at base year prices to determine the present value of these water costs over

the entire 25 years.

NOTE: UPV factors are generally applied to costs that recur annually in substantially the same amount.

Examples of such costs are routine operating and maintenance costs. UPV* factors are generally applied

to costs that recur annually but change from year to year at a constant escalation rate. Examples of such

costs are water usage costs when they increase from year to year. These costs usually occur every year

4
over the service period of the building life. If there is a planning/design/ construction period before the

service life begins, during which these annual costs are not incurred, the appropriate UPV (or UPV*)

factor for the service period is the difference between the UPV (or UPV*) factor for the entire study

period and the UPV (or UPV*) factor for the planning/design/ construction period. For example, if the

planning/design/ construction period is 3 years and the service period is 25 years, for a total study period

of 28 years, the corresponding UPV factor (from Table A-2, DOE 3.8% discount rate) is 17.05 - 2.79 =

14.26.

For further explanation and illustration of how to use these factors, see NIST Handbook 135.

5
Table A-l SPV factors for finding the present value of

future single costs (non-fuel)

Single Present Value (SPV) Factors

Number of

years from

base date

DOE

Discount rate

3 . 8%

OMB Discount Rates3 Short termb Long Term0 3.4% 3.6%

0 . 25 0 .991 0.992 0 , ,991

0 ., 50 0 .982 0.983 0,,982

0 .,75 0 . 972 0 . 975 0,. 974

1 0 .963 0.967 0,, 965

2 0 .928 0.935 0,.932

3 0 . 894 0.905 0,.899

4 0 .861 0 . 875 0,.868

5 0 . 830 0.846 0,.838

6 0 .799 0.818 0 ,. 809

7 0 .770 0.791 0 ,.781

8 0 .742 0.765 0 ,.754

9 0 .715 0.740 0 , .727

10 0 . 689 0.716 0 ,.702

11 0 .663 0 ,. 678

12 0 . 639 0 ,. 654

13 0 . 616 0,.631

14 0 .593 0,. 609

15 0 . 572 0 ,. 588

16 0 . 551 0 ,. 568

17 0 .530 0,.548

18 0 . 511 0,. 529

19 0 .492 0 ,. 511

20 0 .474 0 ,.493

21 0 .457 0 ,.476

22 0 .440 0,.459

23 0 .424 0 ,.443

24 0 .409 0 ,.428

25 0 .394 0 , .413

26 0 .379 0 , ,399

27 0 .365 0 , ,385

28 0 .352 0 , ,371

29 0 .339 0 ,.359

30 0 .327 0 ,.346

a OMB discount rates as of February 1997.

b Short-term discount rate based on OMB discount rate for 7-year study period.

c Long-term discount rate based on OMB discount rate for 30-year study period.

6
Table A-2. UPV factors for finding the present value of

annually recurring uniform costs (non-fuel)

Uniform Present Value (UPV) Factors

Number of DOE OMB Discount Rates9 years from Discount rate Short termb Long Term"

base date 3 . 8% 3.4% 3 . 6%

1 0 . 96 0.97 0 . 97

2 1 . 89 1.90 1.90

3 2.79 2.81 2 . 80

4 3 . 65 3 . 68 3 . 66

5 4.48 4 . 53 4 . 50

6 5.28 5.35 5.31

7 6.05 6.14 6 . 09

8 6.79 6.90 6 . 85

9 7 . 50 7 . 64 7 . 57

10 8.19 8.36 8.27

11 8 . 86 8.95

12 9.49 9 . 61

13 10.11 10.24

14 10.70 10 .85

15 11.28 11.44

16 11 . 83 12.00

17 12.36 12 . 55

18 12 . 87 13 .08

19 13.36 13 . 59

20 13 . 83 14.08

21 14.29 14.56

22 14.73 15 . 02

23 15.16 15.46

24 15.56 15 . 89

25 15 . 96 16.30

26 16.34 16.70

27 16.70 17 . 09

28 17.05 17.46

29 17.39 17 . 82

30 17.72 18.16

aOMB discount rates as of February 1997.

bShort-term discount rate based on OMB discount rate for 7-year study period.

"Long-term discount rate based on OMB discount rate for 30-year study period.

7
Table

A-3a.

UPV*

factors

for

finding

the

present

value

of

annually

recurring

costs

changing

ata

constant

escalation

rate

-

DOE

discount

rate.

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8
Table

A-3b.

UPV*

factors

for

finding

the

present

value

of

annually

recurring

amounts

changing

ata

constant

escalation

rateOMB

short-term

discount

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Table

A-3c.

UPV*

factors

for

finding

the

present

value

of

annually

recurring

amounts

changing

ata

constant

escalation

rate

-

OMB

long-term

discount

rate.

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i CM VO cn ^F 00 00 CN CN 00 o cn ^F O' LD nF cn r—1 CN CN cn vo rH nF O' 00 cn 00 O' in ro

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in i

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Hoin^inuJhoocriOHrgn^invDhoomoHCNin^inwhcomo

10

3

OMB

discount

rate

as

of

February

1997.

Long-term

discount

rate

based

on

OMB

discount

rate

for

30-year

study

period.
B. Modified Uniform Present Value Factors for Fuel Costs

This section presents FEMP and OMB modified uniform present value (UPV*) discount factors for

calculating the present value of energy usage for federal projects. Factors are provided for the four major

Census regions and for the overall United States. The factors are modified in the sense that they

incorporate energy price escalation rates based on future energy prices projected by DOE for the years

1 997-2026. There are two sets of UPV* tables: the "Ba" tables present FEMP UPV* factors based on the

DOE discount rate (3.8% real), and the "Bb" tables present OMB UPV* factors based on two OMB

discount rates (3.4% real for short-term study periods of 1 to 10 years, 3.6% real for long-term study

periods of 1 1 to 30 years). The underlying energy price indices for the years 1997 to 2026 on which these

UPV* calculations are based are shown in tables Ca-1 through Ca-5. The corresponding average energy

price escalation rates for selected time intervals between 1997 and 2026 are shown in tables Cb-1 through

Cb-5.

Energy Price Projections

The FEMP and OMB UPV* factors incorporate energy price escalation rates computed from future energy

prices projected by the Energy Information Administration (ELA) of the U.S. Department of Energy.

Energy prices through 2015 were generated by EIA using the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS)

and published in the Annual Energy Outlook 1997x (AE097). At the request of FEMP, EIA extrapolated

energy prices after the year 2015 from the AE097 data. NEMS is an energy market model designed to project the impacts of alternative energy policies or assumptions on U.S. energy markets. NEMS produces projections of the U.S. energy future, given current laws and policies and other key assumptions, including macroeconomic indicators from Data Resources,

Inc., the production policy of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, the size of the

economically recoverable resource base for fossil fuels, and the rate of development and penetration of

new technologies. NEMS balances energy supply and demands with modules representing primary fuel

supply, end-use demand for four sectors, and conversion of energy by refineries and electricity generators.

Macroeconomic and international oil modules reflect the impacts of energy prices, production, and

consumption on world oil markets and the economy.

In order to produce price projections to 2026, EIA extrapolated the prices from the AE097 with specific

assumptions about long-term trends. To provide long-term price expectations to the post-2015

projections, world oil price expectations through 2050 were calculated using assumptions of world oil supply and demand. These expectations were used as the basis for the 2026 projections of petroleum

product prices, using the implied 2015 refinery markups to calculate the regional, end-use prices.

The EIA energy price projections presented in this report, like those of other forecasters, are dependent on the data, methodologies, and specific assumptions used in their development. Many of the assumptions

concerning the future cannot be known with any degree of certainty. Thus, the projections are not statements of what will happen, but what might happen given the particular assumptions and

methodologies used. Although EIA has endeavored to make these forecasts as objective, reliable, and

1 Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 1997, DOE/EPA-0383(97), January 1997

11
useful as possible, these projections should serve as an adjunct to, not a substitute for, the analytical

process. The AE097 was prepared by EIA as required under statute by federal legislation. The price

projections to 2026 were prepared in accordance with a Service Request from the Federal Energy

Management Program.

UPV* Calculation Method

The formula for finding the present value (P) of future energy costs or savings is the following:

P = A x T (1997+f) -Ax UPV* N , ° M (1 +df

°

where A0

tN

I(1997+t)

d

annual cost of energy as of the base date; index used to designate each year, with t=l for the year 1997;

number of periods, e.g., years, over which energy costs or savings accrue; projected average fuel price index2 given in Tables Ca-1 through Ca-5

for the year 1997+t (where I

1997 = 1.00); and

the discount rate.

This formula is based on end-of-year energy prices and end-of-year discounting. Note that annual energy

costs as of the base date (A0 , to be supplied by the analyst) should reflect the current energy price

schedule as of the base date, which may not be the same as the energy price itself on that date. That is, the annual energy cost should reflect summer-winter rate differences, time-of-use rates, block rates considerations, and demand charges (as appropriate) anticipated to be in effect that year. If energy and

demand costs are calculated separately (as is sometimes done for electricity), the UPV* factor should be

applied to both costs.

The data in the tables that follow are reported for the four Census regions and the U.S. average. Figure

B-l presents a map showing the states corresponding to the four Census regions. The Census regions do

not include American Samoa, Canal Zone, Guam, Puerto Rico, Trust Territory of the Pacific Islands, or

the Virgin Islands. Analysts of federal projects in these areas should use data which are "reasonable under

the circumstances," and may refer to the tables with U.S. average data for guidance.

2 For greater precision, the UPV* factors reported in the Ba and Bb tables were computed using the unrounded form

of the indices given in Tables Ca-1 through Ca-5.

12
WEST

MIDWEST

NORTHEAST

(Region

4)

(Region

2)

(Region

1)

13

Figure

B-1.

Map

of

the

United

States

Showing

Census

Regions.
B.l. FEMP Modified Uniform Present Value Factors

The FEMP Modified Uniform Present Value (FEMP UPV*) factors presented in the "Ba" tables, based on the current DOE discount rate (3.8%), are for calculating the present value of energy costs or savings

accruing over 1 to 25 years and are to be used in life-cycle cost analyses of federal energy conservation

and renewable energy projects. Factors are reported in the "Ba" tables for 30 years to accommodate a planning/design/construction period of up to 5 years. (See "Examples of How to Use FEMP UPV*

Factors" below for instructions on use with planning/design/construction periods.)

These factors apply only to annual energy usage or energy savings that are assumed to be the same each

year over the service period. The NIST BLCC computer program can compute the present value of energy

usage and savings which are not the same in each year.

Examples of How to Use the FEMP UPV* Factors:

FEMP UPV*, no planning/design/construction period: To compute the present value of heating with

natural gas over 25 years in a federal office building in New Mexico, go to Table Ba-4, find the FEMP

UPV* factor for commercial natural gas for 25 years (15.17), and multiply this factor by the annual

heating cost at base-date natural gas prices.

FEMP UPV*, with planning/design/construction period: To compute a present value factor for a service

period following a planning/design/construction period (1) find the FEMP UPV* factor for the combined

length of the planning/design/construction period and the service period (not to exceed 30 years), and (2)

subtract from (1) the FEMP UPV* factor for the planning/design/construction period alone. The

difference is the FEMP UPV* factor for the years over which energy costs or savings actually accrue. For

example, suppose a new federal office building in New York is being evaluated with several energy

conserving design options. It is expected to have a planning/design/ construction period of 5 years, after which it will be occupied for at least 25 years. To compute the present value of natural gas costs over 25

years of occupancy, go to Table Ba-1 and find the FEMP UPV* factors for commercial natural gas for

5 years (4.45) and for 30 years (16.80). The difference (12.35) is the FEMP UPV* factor for natural gas

costs over 25 years, beginning 5 years after the base date. Multiply 12.35 by the annual natural gas cost

at base-date prices (not occupancy-date prices) to calculate the present value of natural gas costs over the

entire 25-year occupancy period.

14
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15

Note:

UPV*

factors

are

reported

for

years

26-30

to

accommodate a

planning/construction

period

of

up

to 5

years.

(See

p.

14

for

instructions

on

use;

page

xii

for

abbreviations.)
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Note:

UPV*

factors

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reported

for

years

26-30

to

accommodate a

planning/construction

period

of

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to 5

years.

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p.

14

for

instructions

on

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xii

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factors

are

reported

for

years

26-30

to

accommodate a

planning/construction

period

of

up

to 5

years.

(See

p.

14

for

instructions

on

use;

page

xii

for

abbreviations.)
Table

Ba-4.

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Factors

adjusted

for

fuel

price

escalation,

by

end-use

sector

and

fuel

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Note:

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factors

are

reported

for

years

26-30

to

accommodate

a

planning/construction

period

of

up

to 5

years.

(See

p.

14

for

instructions

on

use;

page

xii

for

abbreviations.)
Table

Ba-5.

FEMP

UPV*

Discount

Factors

adjusted

for

fuel

price

escalation,

by

end-use

sector

and

fuel

type.

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Note:

UPV'

factors

are

reported

for

years

26-30

to

accommodate a

planning/construction

period

of

up

to 5

years.

(Sec

p.

14

for

instructions

on

use;

page

xii

for

abbreviations.)
B.2. OMB Modified Uniform Present Value Factors

The OMB Modified Uniform Present Value (OMB UPV*) factors presented in the "Bb" tables, based on

the current OMB discount rates (3.4% short term and 3.6% long term), are for calculating the present

value of energy costs accruing over 1 to 30 years when conducting a life-cycle cost analysis of a federal

project which is not explicitly related to energy or water conservation or renewable resources. Factors are reported in the "Bb" tables for 30 years. These factors apply only to annual energy usage that is assumed

to be the same each year over the service period. The NIST BLCC computer program can compute the

present value of energy usage and savings that are not the same in each year.

Examples of How to Use the OMB UPV* Factors:

OMB UPV* (OMB discount rate): To compute the present value over 30 years of electricity costs associated with the occupancy of a federal office building in Ohio (where energy conservation is not a

specific consideration in the LCC analysis), go to Table Bb-2, find the OMB UPV* factor for commercial

electricity for 30 years (16.77), and multiply this factor by the annual electricity cost in base-date dollars.

NOTE: Because the discount rate used to calculate the Bb tables (OMB discount rate) is different for

years 1-10 (3.4%) than for years 11-30 (3.6%), these factors cannot be used with a planning/design/construction period as shown above for the Ba tables (DOE discount rate). Use the

BLCC or DISCOUNT computer program for this purpose. For further explanation of the use of UPV*

factors, see NIST Handbook 135.

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(See p

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for

instructions

on

use;

page

xii

for

abbreviations.)
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25

(See

p.

20

for

instructions

on

use;

page

xii

for

abbreviations.)
C. Projected Average Fuel Price Indices and Escalation Rates (Real)

Tables Ca-1 through Ca-5 present projected fuel price indices for the 4 Census regions and for the

United States. These are factors which, when multiplied by annual energy costs computed at base-date

prices, provide estimates of future-year costs in constant base-date dollars. The indices are based on endof-year energy prices. End-of-year indices are used because the discount factors provided in this report

are based on the end-of-year discounting convention. Constant dollar costs are needed when discounting

is performed with a real discount rate (i.e., one which does not include general price inflation).

Example of How to Use the Indices:

To estimate the price of industrial coal at the end of year 2006 in Connecticut (in constant 1997 dollars),

go to Table Ca- 1 , find the year 2006 index for industrial coal (.99), and multiply by the price for industrial

coal in Connecticut at the beginning of year 1997.

For further explanation of how to use these tables, see NIST Handbook 135.

Tables Cb-1 through Cb-5 present the projected average fuel price escalation rates (percentage change

compounded annually) for selected periods from 1997 to 2026 for the four Census regions and for the

overall United States. Note that these are real rates exclusive of general price inflation. Their use results

in prices expressed in constant dollars.

The average fuel escalation rates consolidate the information provided by the indices in the Ca tables so

that trends in projected price changes can be seen at a glance. They are provided primarily to accommodate computer programs (such as BLCC) which require price escalation rates as inputs.

Unless there is a compelling reason to use escalation rates, it is recommended that you use the indices in the Ca tables when you need estimates of future-year energy prices, since the indices include year-to-year

information rather than averages over a number of years.

Example of How to Use the Escalation Rates:

To estimate the unit price of residential natural gas at the end of 2006 (p06 ) in Wyoming using the DOE

energy price escalation rates, go to Table Cb-4 and find the 1997-2001 and the 2001-2006 escalation rates for residential natural gas (-0.8% for 5 years and -0.4% for 5 years, respectively). Enter these values and

the unit price of residential natural gas in Wyoming at the end of 1997 (pg7 )

3 into the following formula.

Then solve for the 2006 energy price (stated in end of 1997 dollars):

P0

5

= P91 x (1 + e

x )

k

' x (1 + e

2f

2

= p91 x (1 - 0.008)5 x (\ - 0.004)5

' The price at the end of year 1997 (ending March 3 1 , 1998) is the same as the price at the beginning of year 1998

(April 1, 1998). End-of-year 1997 is used here to maintain consistent notation.

26
= p91 x 0.9416

where p = Price at end of year y;

e, = Annual compound escalation rate for period i from the Cb tables (in decimal form); and

k, = Number of years over which escalation rate e, occurs.

Note that the compounded escalation rate factor (0.9416) corresponds to the fuel price index in region

4, residential natural gas, for the year 2006 in table Ca-4 (0.94).

The data in the tables which follow are reported for the four Census regions and the U.S. average. Figure

B- 1 presents a map showing the states corresponding to the four Census regions. The Census regions do

not include American Samoa, Canal Zone, Guam, Puerto Rico, Trust Territory of the Pacific Islands, or

the Virgin Islands. Analysts of federal projects in these areas should use data which are "reasonable under

the circumstances," and may refer to the tables with U.S. average data for guidance.

27
Table

Ca-1.

Projected

fuel

price

indices

(excluding

general

inflation),

by

end-use

sector

and

fuel

type.

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Ca-3.

Projected

fuel

price

indices

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general

inflation),

by

end-use

sector

and

fuel

type.

C3

ca .£ £ M

.2 . t- "v

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cj *> 3 V 5 <y s $ 1 e

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ca o

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ca c« V _V3 La S £ < S ;s

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Table

Ca-4.

Projected

fuel

price

indices

(excluding

general

inflation),

by

end-use

sector

and

fuel

type. 1 rH 1 O o ID 03 LO r- 03 CM

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03 CD 03 03O 03

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03O 6 O <u 1 1 CO rH r- 03 rH 03 CO CD CD 00 [> 00 G u 1 O 1 O CD O 03 03 03 rH 03 03 03 03 o o 03 u X H 1 O 1 • • o 4) U 1 CM 1 rH o rH O O O rH O O O O rH O “ s 0-1 1 1 V >

Fuel 1 m 1 m

D

O i"- o cn 03 03 CD CD LO 00 .2‘5

<u z 111 O 1 O 1 CM 1 o

rH

03o O

rH

03O o

rH

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rH

03O

03o03O03OO

rH

O

rH

03O

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C3 0 1 O 1 o CD 03 03 03 03 03 03 03 03

O o o a 0> z

>H 1 O 1 V 1 MH 1| CM 11 rH o O o O

O rHO o O

O rH rH rH

a o c CO 1 T5 1 rH 1 CD rO

O CD CD CD 03 CM LO rH

O o c 1 O 1 O CD 03 03 O 03 O 03 03 03 03 O O o N CO d 1 O 1 . "u G w 1 CM 1 rH o O O rH O rH O O O O rH rH rH < o d 1 1

0) 1 O 1 CM CD CD rH 03 LO 03 rO rH CM CM

O 4J 1 O 1 O CD CD 03 O CD O 03 03 O 03 O O O

C/3 cs < ©£co -o

u

d> i 0u

cu 111 O 1 CM 11 rH o O

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x—\ O rH rH rH

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O CD CM o CM CM rH 1 03 i O 03 CD 03 O CD O O 03 O 03 O O O 1 03 i • • 1 rH 1 rH O o o rH O rH rH O rH O rH rH rH Tf 1 1 c 1 CD 1 CM in 03 rH rH O o 03 rH CM 00 O rH o 1 03 1 O 03 03 03 O 03 O O 03 O 03 03 O O 1 03 1 • OX) cu 11 rH 11 rH o o O rH O x—i rH O rH O o rH <—1

C/3 1 i> i O o o O

OOOOO

OO o OO 3 1 03 1 O o o O O O o O O O O o o O

1/3 1 03 1 c 1 rH 1 X

—1 t—1 rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH

<u 1 1 u i—1 11 <D 1 rH rH 1—1 3 1 -H •H •H

d

Pu 1 o o rH o '—1 0 1 w >1 •H w >i CO •rl d 1 i—1

4J <D ffl 4J <D o 4J d) o id 4J

d 1 (0 •H 4J o rH •rl 4->

U i—i

-rl

V

O id

<0 1 •H o <0 CJ (0 <—i id 0 id i—1

4-1 1 4-1 H rH rH -rl •rH rH (0 i—i

-H •rl i—i

<ti rHu

M 1 C Ul rH (0OM i—1 3 d

u Ul i—i

id o O 1 0) 4J H V4 Sh 4J -H d 4J 4J •rH d u a

4-) 1 d

U 4-> 2 d)O

V 0 i—i M o 4J •rl

d i—i (0

U 1 H Q) U) o V

a 0)

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0) 1 W rH •H cu (0

g rH •H a)

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34

Gasoline

1.00

0.99

1.00

1.00

1.01

1.02

1.02

1.02

1.03

1.05

1.05

1.04

1.04

1.04

1.02
1 LD 1 m CN

Om 1 CN 1 CD O o 00 # 1 O 1 • OJ 1 CN 1 o rH rH o a 1 1 1 LD 1 CN KD ro 1 CN 1 CD O O 00 a) 1 O 1 . . <5 1 CN 1 O H rH o

T3 1 1 C 1 1 CN KD ro - - . 1 (N 1 CD O O 00 uo M oo 11 O

CN 11 O rH rH o

fl 1 1 © X—

g 1 m 1 ID CN

C/3

© II 1 CN 1 CD

OO 00

© 1 O 1 • • •

C/3 e'- 1 CN 1 O rH

r—o 3 £ en 1 1 3 CT» s' r—

1 CN 1 LD rH C © 1 CN 1 CD O O CO © -*-> •* 1 O 1 -O

DC3 x

—

11 CN 11 O

X

—

rH o 2C/3 i—

•H 1 x

—

1 LD rH kO "c 3 U 1 CN 1 CD O O 00 t ©

’•M £ P< 11 O

CN 11 O \—

rH o

CD c 433 U) 11 O 11 O rH KD LD C w CD 1 CN 1 CD O O CO u 1 O 1 2i_ •H 1 CN 1 O rH rH o

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1 CD O o 00 DC

DC

sc

S- o

<uu

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CN 111 O rH rH

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a

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©

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©

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4)

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CD

End- 111 O

CN 111 o rH

x

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O o 3 1 LD 1 CD O LD o 4/ N 3 di 1 x—

1 CD O O CO

S3 ** (D 1 o 1 *c 8 4-) 1 CN 1 O rH

r—o

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CN 111

CDOO

rH

O

rH

COo

s- Cu < 11 CO 11 00 rH LD OD • 1 H 1 CD O O CO "3 1 o 1 ©3 1 CN 1 O r—1 rH o a c

"w S 1 CN 1 CD

O LD CD

C _© 1 rH 1 CD

OO CO

© *DC 1 O 1 • • CJ © 1 CN 1 o rH rH

O

*\ Tt 1 1 3

C/3 3 U C/3 3 11 r-

11 _© 4/ u 1 0) 1 iH 3 1 3 1 •H 3 1 P 1 o H 11 T5 11 1—

>1

-P QJ

W

fd 1 a 1 (d -H 4J o 1 rtf 1 -H L) (0 1 1 4J *H 1—1 1—

1 u 1 d H rH rtf 1 0 1 qj 4J •H U 1 -U 1 U -U d 1 U 1 H (D U) o -P 1 <D 1 03 i—1 * H a. rtf 1 U) 1 QJ W P p 1 1 Pi

a\ CD 00 00 LD LD CD o CD r- o

00 CD CN 00 r- 00 CD CNH o CD o O H O o o O rH rH o o o CD O 00 LD LD CD O 00 00 r- CD CD CN 00 00 CD CN rH r~ CD O O rH O o O O r—

r—

o o O CD LD 00 LD r~ CD O l> 00 00

(T\ CD CN CO C" 00 CD CN

H o CD

OO rH o O o O rH rH o o X—

CD LD 00 l> 00 CD

O LD CD 00

CD CD CN 00 [> 00 CD CN

H \> CD

O

O rH o o o O rH

X

—

O o

CN 00 LD CO 00 00 CD CD LD

O CO

CD CD CN 00 o 00 CDx

—

H 00 CD

OO rH o o o O rH rH o o

CN 00 00 CO CD 00 CD LD o 00

CD CD CN 00 r- 00 CD

x

—

x

—

00 CD

O

O rH o o o O rH

H o O

m CO ro cn CD o CO 00 ro

H

CD CD CN 00 \> CD (D

x

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00 CD

OO

H o o o O

r—H o o

ro 00 ro CD o o 00 00 CN CN CD

CD CD CN 00 00 CD CD rH

H 00 CD o O rH o o o O H rH o o

t> CN o x

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00 00 CN ro CD

CT\ CD CN 00 CO CD CD rHx

—

00 CD o O rH o o O O rH rH o O

rH <D

X

—

CN 00 00 rH CD

(D CN 00 00 CD CD

HH 00 CD o O X—

o o O O rH rH o O

LD I> <—1 o CN CN i> o O LD

O

CD CD CN CD 00 CD

x

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x

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O

OO

H o o O o rH

H o rH

LD

O rH o ro ro t> r" CD LD

O

o-\ CD CN CD 00 CD CD

x

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O

OOH o o o O rH rH o rH

[> CN

X

—

roH 00 CD 00 LDO

CD CD CN CD 00 CD CD

x

—1 o 00

O

OO rHO o o O rH rHO rH

ro l>

HH ro rH [> 00 rOH

CD CD CN CD 00 CD CD

H o 00O

OO

H

O o OO rH

r—

o rH

'D (D CN CN r- LD 00 r- rH CD x—

CD 00 CD CD rH

O 00

O

OO rHO o O o H rH o x

—

1—

i—

QJ • H a a o rH o rH o

>1 -H 03 >i *H 03 •H rH

4J QJ o (0 jj QJ o rd 4J o i—

-U e> i—•H 4->

O rd 03

(0

u fC iH <d

u rd rH 4J id

•rH *H 1 1 ftf i—

*H •H 1—1 rd i—l U

O

Vu l 1 d <0

u

d 1—1 d rd 0 d -U *H u V 4J •H T) d a

M

0)

u 4JH

d i—

03

U 4J *H 3 t—03 0 £ 0) U

m jj td 2 0) CO 03 4J id c 4J £ i—

•H QJ to o 'd i—-H QJ rd o rd 0 0 w P Pd S u a W P Pi S u 3-1 s u H E

35
Table

Ca-5.

Projected

fuel

price

indices

(excluding

general

inflation),

by

end-use

sector

and

fuel

type.

ox

SJ

s_<u <cn

<ua

</} T3

0)C3 1 rH 1 LO

O LD CM CM 00 VO VO rH rH LO

O CD CM CM 1 rH 1 CTl rH O CTi 03 o cn cn cn CTl o \—1 O cn o 1 O 1 • • • 11 CM 11 o t—1 c—1 o O rH o o o o rH rH rH o \—1 1 O 1 VO O VO ro ro 03 l> r- ro CM VO rH c- ro 'CP i a i CTi rH o CTi 03 O 03 cn cn cn O rH O cn o 1 O 1 • • . 11 CM 11 o rH rH o o rH o o o o rH rH rH o rH i 03 1 o O in ”sP ^p 00 VO r- ro ro VO rH C" *CP i O 1 CTi rH o CTl cn o cn 03 cn cn o t—1 o CTi O i O 1 • . ii CM 11 O rH \—1 o o rH o o o o rH rH rH O rH i 00 1 o 03 ^p LO ^p i> o CO in ro O VO in ro i O 1 03 o o CTi 03 o cn 03 cn 03 o <—1 o cn o 1 O 1 • • . . . „ i CM 1 O C—1 T—1 o O t—1 o o o o rH rH rH o rH o 1 1 o 1 r~ i 00 CTi in LD o r- 03 VO ^p ^p o LO ^P

rH i O 1 CTi o o 03 03 o 03 cn cn cnO rH o 03 o i O 1 • .

ii 1 CM 1 o rH rH

OO rHO o o o rH rH rH

O rH

03 i VO 1 00 CTl IT) VO LO o LO cn 00 ^p ^p 03 LO t>

rH1 11 O 11

CTiO

O CTi cn o cn 03 cn 03 o O

O cnO i CM 1 o rH rH o o rH o o o o t—1

rH rH o rH

rH 1 1 i in i CTi 00 ro r~ LO VO ro o cn LO ro r-~ 'CP CO ro

•H i O 1 03 o o 03 CTl o CTl o cn 03 o o O cn o u 1 O 1 • • • a< 11 CM 11 O rH t—1 o o rH o rH o o t—l

rH rH o rH i ^ i 03 00 ro 00 VO LO ro O <n VO ro r- ro 00 ro

W i O 1 CTi o o CTi 03

O 03 o 03 cn o o o 03

O (D 1 O 1 • . L) i CM 1 o rH rH o o rH O rH o o rH rH rH o \—1

T> 1 1 CM 1 CO 1 O VO CM 00 r- ^p ^p rH rH c- \—1

VO CM cn CM i O 1 o O O 03 03 O cn O o 03 O o o cn o

<u i O 1 • • u i CM 1 <—1

rH rH o o \—1 o rH rH

O rH rH rH o rH

-H i 1

S-l a i CM 1 <—1

VO ro 00 00 ro ro \—1

CM t" o LO

O CM 1 O 1 o o O CTi CTi o cn O o cn O O o o o i—1 1 O 1 • . d) i CM 1 T—1

rH rH o O rH o rH rH o rH rH rH rH rH

Cl, 1 1 1 rH 1 \—1

LD CM CTl 00 CM CM o CM 00 03 ro o CM CM i O 1 o o o cn 03 o cn O o cn 03 o O O O

(1) 1 O 1 • . 1 CM 1 T—1

rH rH o o rH o \—1

rH o O \—1

rH rH rH

4-10 i O 1 \—1

CTi 03 rH cn rH rH cn 00 \

1 O c—1 rH 1 1 O 1 o o O 03 cn o 00 O o 03 03 o o o o i O 1 • . • dW 11 CM 11 rH rH rH o o rH o rH rH o O rH rH rH rH

TS

<u jjo

0) 1 03 1 rH ^p 03 o O rH o cn o r- CM o rH rH iii

CT 1 CT 1 H 1 O

rH

O

rH

O

rH

CTl O o

rH

O

rH

cno o

rH

03O o

rH

03o o

rH o

rH oc—1 O

rH *n 1 1 0U i 00 1 rH CM o CTi o cn ro O o o C" t—1

03 \

1 O

a, 1 ct i O o O CTi o 03 03 o O o cn o 03 o o i CTi 1 • 11 rH 11 rH rH rH o \—1 O o rH rH rH o t—1 O \—1

rH i C" 1 O o O o o O o O O O o o O o O i CTi 1 o O o o o O o o O O o o o o O i 03 i • i rH 1 rH rH rH \—1

rH rH rH \—1

rH rH rH rH rH rH rH

rH 11 0) 1 rH 1—1 i—1

<u 3 1 •H •rH •H d d a 1 o o i—1 o rH 0 - H 1 CO •H CO >1 -rH CO H i—1 1 i—1 4-> QJ 4J a) o cO 44 a) o <d 44 0 a 1 (0 -H 4-1 0 i—1 -H 4J 0 1—1

•H 44 0 cd CO

(C 1 •H

U ctf

u cd i—1 (0

u cd rH 44 cd 1 4-1 •rH rH i—l *rC H i—1 rti rH H •H l—1

rtf i—1 0 u 1 a rH cd U V4 i—1 d cfl u i—1 d d O o 1 a) 4J -H >H M 4-> -rH Tl u 4-4 44 •H a U V 1 T) U 4J 3 a> U 4J H d i—i

CO

U 4J •H

d rH CO o u 1 *H <D V) o 4-> s a) co CO 4J d d cu U) CO 44 cd c 44

(D 1 CO rH •H Oi (0

g i—1 *H (U cd o n rH •iH (U cd 0 cd o W 1 a) W Q hJ £ o w a Oi S u a w Q Pi E a d a 1 cc 0 H

36
Table

Ca-5,

continued.

Projected

fuel

price

indices

(excluding

general

inflation),

by

end-use

sector

and

fuel

type. 1 vo i 00

O VO r- in 00 •vP (T\

r—

vo CN

O o 1 CN 1 00 \—1 O 00 00 o O cn [> 00 o rH CN 00 CT\ 1 O 1 11 CN 11 o rH r—

o o rH rH o O o rH rH rH o o 1 in i 00 o VO VO 00 r—

CN vo rH o 1 CN) 1 00 rH o 00 00 o O cr» 00 CO o rH CN 00 <T\ 1 O 1 11 CN 11 o rH rH o o rH rH o o o r—

rH rH o o 1 ^ 1 CTi O in CO VO 00 ro r—

ro vo ^pOr—

o 1 CN 1 CO rH o 00 00 O O CT> 00 CO o rH CN 00 o> O 1 O 1 1 CN 1 o rH rH o o rH rH o o o rH rH rH o o

rH 1 1

ii 1 m i a\ o> in CO r- r- ro CN ro vo (T\ CN 00 1 CN 1 00 O o CO CO o O cn 00 00 o rH rH 00 CT\ 1 O 1 C" 1 CN 1 o rH rH o o rH rH o o o rH rH rH o o

ON 1 1 Ch 1 CN 1 o o> LD 00 r- CN ^p ro vo ro cn CN CO 1 CN 1 CT» O O 00 00 o O CT\ 00 00 o r—

r—

CO (T\ 1 O 1 rH 11 CN 11 O rH rH o o rH rH O O o rH rH r—

o o i—1 1 rH 1 o in CT\ r- CN ro ^p m ro [> ro CO *H 1 CN 1 cr> O O 00 00 o O Ch CO 00 o rH rH CO (T\ g 1 O 1 a 1 CN 1 o rH rH o o rH rH o o o r—

r—rH o o < 1 1 ' 1 O 1 r—1 OY m Ch CO rH in ^p LD LD ro VO CTi w

a)u 1 CN 1 <r>

O o 00 00 o O 00 CO o r

—rH CO cr\ 11 O 1 CN 1 o r—

rH o o rHr

—1 o o o rH rH

r—1 o o

•H 1 1 V

sx

Ti 1 (T\ 1 r—i (T\ in o 00 rH in LO vo in ro VO in (T\ G 1 rH 1 OY O O o\ 00 o o CT\ 00 00 o rH rH CO

cz

H 1 O 1 u 1 CN 1 O rH rH o o rH rH o o o rH rH rH o o

<U a) 1 1 >• u

•< *H 1 00 1 CN (T\ o G\ o o in VO vo

m CN LO vo cn

V

G

Oh 111

rH 1 O 1 CN 1

CT> O

Or—1 or—1cr\ o

COo O

rH

O

rH

cno

00oCOo o

rH

rH

rH

rHr—1

COoCT\ o

sn 1 1 w 1 1 C/3 1 r- i CN CT\ o cr> r- O'! VO r- in CN vo O'* o G 1 rH 1 CT\ O o (T\ 00 o cr\ <j\ 00 CO o rH rH CO <T> V 1 O 1 w 1 CN 1 O rH rH o o rH o o o o rH rH rH o o c

•Year 1 1 3 1 VO 1 ro a\ rH o VO G\ VO [> CO ^p rH ro [> o 11 rH 1 O 1

(T\OO o> o O'! CT\ 00 00 o r

—1 rH CO o 1 n | 1 CN 1 o rH rH o o rH o o o o rH rH rH o rH 01 1 in i ro CT> ^P rH o r- G\ vo CT\ CO rH CN CO o

T3 1 rH 1 o\ o o (J\ o (J\ 00 00 o rH

r

—CO o G 1 O 1 W 11 CN 11 o rH rH o o rH o o o o rH rH r—

o r—

T3

0) 1 i ro <T\ ^p rH 00 VO [> in

r—O 00 o 1 rH 1 CT\ O O G\ CO o G\ CT\ 00 00 o CO o 4-> 1 O 1 u

(1) •1—1 11 CN 11 o rH rH

O o rH o O o o rH rH rH o rH o 1 ro 1 ro cn ^p r—

OY r- o VO o\ CO in

O G\ O'! rH

G 1 rH 1 O'!

OO <T\ 00 o a\ CTk CO 00 o rH

O 00O

a 1 O 1 • 11 CN 11 o rH r—

O o rH o O o o rH rH rH o rH 1 CN 1 •3* <T\ CN r—

r- VO VO o in 00 o rH 1 1 (T\ O O (T\ CT\ o (T\ CO o O O a\ O 1 O 1 11 CN 11 O rH rH O o rH o o o o rH rH rH o rH i—

a> 1 i—

iH 2 1 -H • H

ki 11 >1 o W >1 o

T3 1 «—

4-1 QJ fO 4-1 a>

C 1 to 4-1 o I—

-H 4J

aJ 1 -Hu (0 nj

u ic 1 -U *H rH 1—

-H -H iH

G 1 GG i—

(0

UG i—

O 1 C 4-1 * H G G 4-1 —

4J 1 u 4J

G Q) o 4J

u 1 "H <u

W o 4-1 £ <D

W

tu 1 m rH *H CG fO £ 1—•H

cn 1 w

w o s 0 W

Q 1 cd u i—I (1) -H G C i

i o iH O *H

*H

U1 !>i •H in •rH fH o fO 4J a) o (0 4-> o o iH •H 4-1 o (0 in i—i to O to r—

4-1 to

(0 1—1 •H *H rH to 1—1 G

u

G n3

G

H rH

G 10 0

TlG 4-> 4J -H

G

a

G

—

G rH in

U 4J •rH

G 1—1 in 0 W 4-1 to G Q) W in 4-1 tO C 4-1 w tc o rr3 rH -H 0) to o to 0 & 2 u [i] Q cc 2 u G 2 H

37
Table Cb-1. Projected average fuel price escalation rates, excluding general inflation,

by end-use sector and fuel type.

Census Region 1 (Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire,

New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont)

Percentage change compounded annually

Sector and Fuel

1997

to

2001

2001

to

2006

2006

to

2011

2011

to

2016

2016

to

2021

2021

to

2026

Residential

Electricity -0.1 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3

Distillate Oil 1.5 0.7 0.1 -0.2 0.1 0.1

LPG 1.4 0.4 -0.3 -0.2 0.1 0.1

Natural Gas 0.1 -1.0 -1.0 -0 .

6

-0.6 -0 .

6

Commercial

Electricity -0.8 -0 .

8

-0.7 -0.9 -0.7 -0.7

Distillate Oil 1.3 0.9 0.2 -0.2 0 .

0

0.1

Residual Oil -2.6 0.7 0.1 0.7 0 .

5

0 .

5

Natural Gas -0 .

0

-0.7 -0.7 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3

Coal 0 .

9

-0 .

8

-1.2 -0.9 -1 .

0

-1 .

0

Industrial

Electricity -0 .

9

-0.9 -0.9 -1.3 -1.0 -1.0

Distillate Oil 0 .

9

1.0 0.2 -0.2 0 .

1

0.1

Residual Oil -1.9 0.7 0.1 0.7 0.2 0.1

Natural Gas -1.3 0.7 0.3 0.7 0.7 0.7

Coal 0.7 -0.7 -1.1 -1.1 -1 .

0

-1.0

Transportation

Motor Gasoline 0.6 0.3 -0.2 -0 .

5

-0.3 -0.3

38
Table Cb-2. Projected average fuel price escalation rates, excluding general inflation,

by end-use sector and fuel type.

Census Region 2 (Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota,

Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, South Dakota, Wisconsin)

Percentage change compounded annually

Sector and Fuel

1997

to

2001

2001

to

2006

2006

to

2011

2011

to

2016

2016

to

2021

2021

to

2026

Residential

Electricity 0.3 -0.4 -0.7 -0.5 -0 .

-0.6

Distillate Oil -0.2 0.8 0.2 -0.1 0.2 0.2

LPG -0.3 0.6 -0.1 -0.3 0.2 0.2

Natural Gas -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 0.1 -0.4 -0.3

Commercial

Electricity -0.4 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7

Distillate Oil -1 .

1.2 0.3 -0.1 0.2 0.3

Residual Oil 1 .

1.5 -0.2 0.4 0.5 0.5

Natural Gas 0.2 -0 .

-0.2 0.2 -0.2 -0 .

Coal 0.9 -1.2 -1.1 -0.7 -0.9 -1.1

Industrial

Electricity -0.4 -0.7 -0.8 -0.9 -0.9 -0.8

Distillate Oil -0 .1.1 0.2 -0 .0.2 0.2

Residual Oil 2.6 1.4 -0.2 0.4 0.3 0.3

Natural Gas -0.1 0.9 0 .1.1 0.7 0.7

Coal 0.4 -0.9 -1.1 -1.0 -0 .

-1 .

Transportation

Motor Gasoline -0.2 0.3 -0.3 -0 .

-0.2 -0.2

39
Table Cb-3. Projected average fuel price escalation rates, excluding general inflation,

by end-use sector and fuel type.

Census Region 3 (Alabama, Arkansas, Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida,

Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Mississippi, North Carolina,

Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, West Virginia)

Percentage change compounded annually

Sector and Fuel

1997

to

2001

2001

to

2006

2006

to

2011

2011

to

2016

2016

to

2021

2021

to

2026

Residential

Electricity 0.2 -0 .

9

-0 .

8

-0.6 -0 .

6

-0 .

6

Distillate Oil 1.2 0.7 0 .

1

-0.1 0 .

1

0.1

LPG 0 .

8

0.4 -0.2 -0.2 0 .

1

0.2

Natural Gas -0.3 -0 .

5

-0 .

8

-0.3 -0 .

5

-0.4

Commercial

Electricity -0.3 -0.7 -0.5 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3

Distillate Oil 1.0 1.1 0.2 -0 .

1

0.2 0.2

Residual Oil 2 .

5

1.3 -0.1 0 .

0

0 .

5

0 .

6

Natural Gas 0.4 0 .

0

-0.4 0.1 -0.3 -0 .

2

Coal 0 .

6

-0.9 -1 .

6

-1.0 -1.1 -0.9

Industrial

Electricity -0.3 -0.9 -0.7 -0.7 -0 .

6

-0 .

6

Distillate Oil 0.8 1.0 0.2 -0.2 0.2 0.2

Residual Oil 2.2 1.3 -0.1 0.0 0.3 0.3

Natural Gas 0.1 1.1 0 .

8

1.1 0 .

9

0 .

8

Coal 0.6 -0.9 -1.3 -0.8 -1.0 -0.9

Transportation

Motor Gasoline 0 .

9

0.3 -0.3 -0.5 -0.3 -0.2

40
Table Cb-4. Projected average fuel price escalation rates, excluding general inflation,

by end-use sector and fuel type.

Census Region 4 (Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Montana, Nevada,

New Mexico, Oregon, Utah, Washington, Wyoming)

Percentage change compounded annually

Sector and Fuel

1997

to

2001

2001

to

2006

Residential

Electricity 0.9 -0.3

Distillate Oil -1.6 1.3

LPG -0.3 0 .

Natural Gas -0.8 -0.4

Commercial

Electricity 0.0 -0 .

Distillate Oil -2.6 1 .

Residual Oil 1.9 1.4

Natural Gas -0.4 -0.2

Coal -1.0 -1.0

Industrial

Electricity -0.2 -0.8

Distillate Oil -2.1 1.3

Residual Oil 1 .

1.6

Natural Gas 0.3 1.2

Coal 0.0 -1.1

Transportation

Motor Gasoline 0.4 0.7

2006 2011 2016 2021

to to to to

2011 2016 2021 2026

-0.5 -0 .

-0.6 -0.6

0 .0 .

0.1 0.1

0 .

-0 .

0.1 0.2

-1.2 -0.7 -0.4 -0.3

-0 .

0.1 -0 .

-0.6

0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2

0.6 0.2 0.6 0.6

-1.1 -0 .

-0.3 -0.2

-1.5 -0.7 -0.9 -0.9

-0.6 -0.0 1 o 00 -0.7

-0.0 -0.1 0.2 0.2

0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3

-0.2 0.6 0.8 0.8

-1.2 -1.0 -1.0 -0.9

-0 .

i o -0.3 -0.3

41
Table Cb-5. Projected average fuel price escalation rates, excluding general inflation,

by end-use sector and fuel type.

United States Average

Percentage change compounded annually

Sector and Fuel

1997

to

2001

2001

to

2006

2006

to

2011

2011

to

2016

2016

to

2021

2021

to

2026

Residential

Electricity 0.3 -0 .

6

-0 .

6

-0.4 -0.6 -0 .

6

Distillate Oil 1.2 0 .

8

0.1 -0.2 0 .

1

0.1

LPG 0 .

5

0 .

6

0.0 -0.2 0.2 0.2

Natural Gas -0.3 -0 .

5

-0 .

8

-0.3 -0 .

5

-0.4

Commercial

Electricity -0.4 -0.7 -0.6 -0 .

5

-0.5 -0.5

Distillate Oil 0 .

5

1 .

0

0.1 -0.2 0 .

1

0.1

Residual Oil -2.2 0 .

8

0.1 0.7 0 .

5

0.5

Natural Gas 0.1 -0.3 -0 .

6

-0 .

1

-0.3 -0.2

Coal 0 .

5

-0 .

8

-1.4 -0.9 -0.9 -1.0

Industrial

Electricity -0.4 -0.9 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7

Distillate Oil -0.3 1.1 0.2 -0.2 0.2 0.2

Residual Oil 0.7 1.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3

Natural Gas -0 .

1

1.1 0.5 1.0 0.7 0 .

8

Coal 0.5 -1.0 -1.1 -1.1 -1 .

0

-0 .

8

Transportation

Motor Gasoline 0.5 0.4 -0.3 -0 .

5

-0.3 -0.2

42
D. Factors for Updating Appliance Label Values

(In Compliance With the Energy Conservation Mandatory Performance Standards for

New Federal Residential Buildings (10 CFR 435))

Compliance with energy conservation performance standards for new federal residential buildings

requires calculation of a building's energy costs, including appliance costs. For this purpose, label values

for gas and electric water heaters are given in the federal micro-computer program, COSTSAFR, as $176

and $406 per year, respectively, in 1987 dollars, and for refrigerator/freezers, as $61 per year in 1987

dollars. To adjust 1987 prices to 1995 prices, multiply these 1987 label values by the factors below.

Table D. Factors for updating appliance label values from 1987 to 1996 dollars.

Fuel Factor

Gas 1.15

Electricity 1.14

Note: the author requests that users of this table notify her at sieglinde.fuller@nist.gov [fax (301) 208-

6936] if this information is still needed for its intended purpose. If no response is received between April

1997 and April 1998, this table will be dropped from future editions of this report.

43
PART II: ENERGY PRICE INDICES FOR PRIVATE SECTOR

LCC ANALYSIS

This section presents tables of projected nominal (i.e., including inflation) fuel price indices for four fuels

in the residential sector and five fuels in the commercial sector for each of the years from 1997 through

2026. These price indices are based on the DOE energy price projections, reported in part I-B of this document, used to calculate the FEMP and OMB UPV* factors for energy costs. The tables are provided

as an update to similar tables originally published in Comprehensive Guide for Least-Cost Energy

Decisions (NBS SP 709).

As a convenience for the user, the indices include the effect of four alternative, hypothetical rates of

general price inflation: 3, 4, 5, and 6%. Selection of these rates is intended in no way to suggest what

actual rates might be. Use of the indices produce price estimates which are in current dollars, inclusive

of general price inflation. Current dollar prices are needed when discounting is performed with discount

rates that include general price inflation (i.e., nominal or market discount rates).

The indices based on inflation rates of 3, 4, 5, and 6% allow the analyst to perform evaluations based on

the assumption of a positive rate of general price inflation that changes the purchasing power of the

dollar. Performing evaluations in current dollars is sometimes preferred for private investment decisions,

primarily because it facilitates the treatment of taxes.

The indices in Tables S-l through S-5 are derived from the indices reported in Tables Ca-1 through Ca-5

by means of the following equation:

/j = Ic X (1 + g)

H

,

where I

s = index found in Tables S-l through S-5;

Ic = index found in Tables Ca-1 through Ca-5;

g = annual rate of general price inflation in decimal form; and

N = number of periods, in this case equal to the year of the index minus 1997.

Example of How to Use the Indices:

Suppose you wish to estimate the annual cost of natural gas for a house in Maryland in year 2001 , given

the annual cost at beginning-of-year 1997 (April 1) prices, and you expect an annual inflation rate of 3%

per year. From table S-3, find the column with residential natural gas indices at an inflation rate of 3%;

then locate the index for the year 2001. This index is 1.11. Multiply the annual cost at the beginning-ofyear 1997 price to find the estimated annual cost at end-of-year 2006 prices.

If this annual cost in year 2001 prices is to be discounted to present value, you must use a nominal

discount rate that includes the same assumption with regard to general price inflation (3% in this example). To obtain a present value cost over the entire study period, the present value calculations must

be repeated for each year that there are natural gas costs, and the results summed. (UPV* factors are not given for private sector use because of the large number of tables required to cover potential discount

rates that might be used by the analyst.) The BLCC computer program can perform LCC analyses using

44
any inflation rate and discount rate, in constant or in current (market) dollars. The DISCOUNT program,

included with BLCC, can compute UPV* factors based on DOE energy price escalation rates using any

inflation rate and discount rate. (See page iv for more information on these programs.) Of course, the

private sector analyst may use the UPV* factors reported in Part I, provided the analysis is performed in constant dollars and the desired discount rate corresponds to the DOE or OMB discount rates used in Parti.

For further explanation of the use of these indices, see NBS Special Publication 709, appendix B, Part I.

The data in the tables that follow are reported for the four Census regions and the U.S. average. Figure

B- 1 presents a map showing the states corresponding to the four Census regions. The Census regions do

not include American Samoa, Canal Zone, Guam, Puerto Rico, Trust Territory of the Pacific Islands, or

the Virgin Islands. Analysts of federal projects in these areas should use data which are "reasonable under

the circumstances," and may refer to the tables with U.S. average data for guidance.

45
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54
Table

S-5,

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rates

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