HDR1012000110090110970830Rice Stocks                                            
                                                                                
Released January 10, 1997, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service      
(NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture.  For     
information on "Rice Stocks" call Barbara Rater at (202) 720-7688, office       
hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET.  For assistance with general agricultural      
statistics, information about NASS, its products or services, contact the       
Agricultural Statistics Hotline at 1-800-727-9540 or E-mail:                    
NASS@NASS.USDA.GOV.                                                             
                                                                                
                                                                                
                     Stocks of Rough Rice Down                                  
                                                                                
Rough rice stocks in all positions on December 1, 1996,  totaled 119 million    
hundredweight (cwt), down 2 percent from the total on December 1, 1995.         
Stocks held on farm totaled 32.7 million cwt and off-farm stocks totaled 86.4   
million cwt.  Long grain varieties accounted for 58 percent of the total rough  
rice, medium grain 41 percent,  and short grain varieties 1 percent.            
                                                                                
Milled rice stocks on December 1 totaled 5.65 million cwt, 1 percent below the  
comparable figure for a year ago.  Milled rice stocks were comprised of         
4.86 million cwt of whole kernel rice and 789,000 cwt of second heads,          
screenings and brewers rice.                                                    
                                                                                
                                                                                
Gr Lg 11-3 (1-97)                                                               
                                                                                
                                                                                
                Rice Stocks:  By Position, United States, 1995-96               
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------   
          :  On Farms   :  In Mills   :  In Whses  :            :               
          :     or      :     and     :    not     :  In Ports  :    Total      
  Date    :    Farm     :  Attached   :  Attached  :    or in   :     All       
          :    Whses    :   Whses     : to Mills 2/:   Transit  :  Positions    
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------   
          :                              1996                                   
----------:------------------------------------------------------------------   
          :                       Rough Rice - 1,000 Cwt                        
          :                                                                     
  Mar 1   :    20,520        11,102       53,283          941        85,846     
  Aug 1   :       486         5,542       13,818          125        19,971     
  Oct 1 1/:                     401        4,246            0         4,647     
  Dec 1   :    32,719        13,228       72,321          801       119,069     
          :                                                                     
          :                       Milled Rice - 1,000 Cwt                       
          :                                                                     
  Mar 1   :                   3,072          148          479         3,699     
  Aug 1   :                   3,296          269           49         3,614     
  Oct 1 1/:                   1,069            0            0         1,069     
  Dec 1   :                   4,056          280        1,315         5,651     
          :                                                                     
          :                     Rough Rice - Metric Tons                        
          :                                                                     
  Mar 1   :   930,770       503,580    2,416,880       42,680     3,893,910     
  Aug 1   :    22,040       251,380      626,770        5,670       905,860     
  Oct 1 1/:                  18,190      192,600            0       210,790     
  Dec 1   : 1,484,110       600,010    3,280,430       36,330     5,400,880     
          :                                                                     
          :                     Milled Rice - Metric Tons                       
          :                                                                     
  Mar 1   :                 139,340        6,710       21,730       167,780     
  Aug 1   :                 149,500       12,200        2,220       163,920     
  Oct 1 1/:                  52,120            0            0        52,120     
  Dec 1   :                 183,980       12,700       59,650       256,330     
          :------------------------------------------------------------------   
          :                              1995                                   
          :------------------------------------------------------------------   
          :                       Rough Rice - 1,000 Cwt                        
          :                                                                     
  Mar 1   :    23,239        12,793       59,271          622        95,925     
  Aug 1   :       862         6,578       15,279           45        22,764     
  Oct 1 1/:                     693        4,234            0         4,927     
  Dec 1   :    32,936        12,561       74,951          883       121,331     
          :                                                                     
          :                       Milled Rice - 1,000 Cwt                       
          :                                                                     
  Mar 1   :                   4,078          349        1,192         5,619     
  Aug 1   :                   4,225        1,028        1,055         6,308     
  Oct 1 1/:                   1,149            0            0         1,149     
  Dec 1   :                   4,368          331        1,010         5,709     
          :                                                                     
          :                     Rough Rice - Metric Tons                        
          :                                                                     
  Mar 1   : 1,054,100       580,280    2,688,490       28,210     4,351,080     
  Aug 1   :    39,100       298,370      693,040        2,040     1,032,550     
  Oct 1 1/:                  31,430      192,050            0       223,480     
  Dec 1   : 1,493,950       569,760    3,399,720       40,050     5,503,480     
          :                                                                     
          :                     Milled Rice - Metric Tons                       
          :                                                                     
  Mar 1   :                 184,970       15,830       54,070       254,870     
  Aug 1   :                 191,640       46,630       47,850       286,120     
  Oct 1 1/:                  52,120            0            0        52,120     
  Dec 1   :                 198,130       15,010       45,810       258,950     
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------   
1/  CA only.                                                                    
2/  October includes small amount stored on farms.                              
                                                                                
  Rice Stocks:  By Position, by State and United States, December 1, 1995-96    
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------   
          :  On Farms   :  In Mills   :  In Whses  :            :               
          :     or      :     and     :    not     :  In Ports  :    Total      
  Date    :    Farm     :  Attached   :  Attached  :    or in   :     All       
          :    Whses    :   Whses     :  to Mills  :   Transit  :  Positions    
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------   
          :                           December 1, 1996                          
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------   
          :                       Rough Rice - 1,000 cwt                        
          :                                                                     
  AR      :    17,500         7,529       26,393           61        51,483     
  CA      :         *             *       30,073            0        35,031     
  LA      :     4,000         1,816        5,234           13        11,063     
  MS      :         *             *            *            *         7,979     
  MO      :         *             *            *            *         2,761     
  TX      :     2,341         1,194        6,490          727        10,752     
  Unall*  :     8,878         2,689        4,131            0                   
          :                                                                     
  US      :    32,719        13,228       72,321          801       119,069     
          :                                                                     
          :                       Milled Rice - 1,000 cwt                       
          :                                                                     
  AR      :                   1,238          103           28         1,369     
  CA      :                   1,522            0            0         1,522     
  LA      :                       *            *            *             *     
  MS      :                       *            *            *             *     
  MO      :                       *            *            *             *     
  TX      :                     828          177           42         1,047     
  Unall*  :                     468            0        1,245         1,713     
          :                                                                     
  US      :                   4,056          280        1,315         5,651     
          :------------------------------------------------------------------   
          :                           December 1, 1995                          
          :------------------------------------------------------------------   
1995      :                       Rough Rice - 1,000 cwt                        
          :                                                                     
  AR      :    13,800         7,086       28,388           46        49,320     
  CA      :     2,800         2,107       29,072            0        33,979     
  LA      :     6,500         1,530        6,089            0        14,119     
  MS      :         *             *            *            *         8,316     
  MO      :         *             *            *            *         3,432     
  TX      :     3,001         1,086        7,241          837        12,165     
  Unall*  :     6,835           752        4,161            0                   
          :                                                                     
  US      :    32,936        12,561       74,951          883       121,331     
          :                                                                     
          :                       Milled Rice - 1,000 cwt                       
          :                                                                     
  AR      :                   1,371           92           46         1,509     
  CA      :                   1,181            0            0         1,181     
  LA      :                       *            *            *             *     
  MS      :                       *            *            *             *     
  MO      :                       *            *            *             *     
  TX      :                   1,219          239           13         1,471     
  Unall*  :                     597            0          951         1,548     
          :                                                                     
  US      :                   4,368          331        1,010         5,709     
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------   
*  Included in unallocated to avoid disclosing individual operations.           
                                                                                
           Rough Rice Stocks:   By Length of Grain in All Positions,            
       California, Other States, and United States, December 1, 1995-96         
------------------------------------------------------------------------------  
          :      Long       :    Medium     :     Short     :      Total        
  State   :-------------------------------------------------------------------  
          :  1995  :  1996  : 1995  : 1996  : 1995  : 1996  :  1995  :  1996    
------------------------------------------------------------------------------  
          :                             1,000 Cwt                               
          :                                                                     
CA        :    542       *   32,308  33,350   1,129       *   33,979   35,031   
          :                                                                     
Oth Sts 1/: 75,714       *   11,633  15,665       5       *   87,352   84,038   
          :                                                                     
US        : 76,256  68,687   43,941  49,015   1,134   1,367  121,331  119,069   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------  
1/  AR, LA, MS, MO, and TX.                                                     
  *   Not published to avoid disclosing individual reports in CA.               
                                                                                
                                                                                
           Milled Rice Stocks:  By Length of Grain in All Positions,            
       California, Other States, and United States, December 1, 1995-96         
------------------------------------------------------------------------------  
          :                     Whole Kernels (Head Rice)                       
          :-------------------------------------------------------------------  
  State   :      Long       :    Medium     :     Short     :      Total        
          :-------------------------------------------------------------------  
          :  1995  :  1996  :  1995 :  1996 :  1995 :  1996 :  1995  :  1996    
------------------------------------------------------------------------------  
          :                             1,000 Cwt                               
          :                                                                     
CA        :     36       6     857   1,154      32      56      925    1,216    
          :                                                                     
Oth Sts 1/:  3,473   3,352     327     294       7       0    3,807    3,646    
          :                                                                     
US        :  3,509   3,358   1,184   1,448      39      56    4,732    4,862    
          :                                                                     
          :-------------------------------------------------------------------  
          :                          Broken Kernels                             
          :-------------------------------------------------------------------  
          : Second Heads 2/ :  Screenings   :    Brewers    :      Total        
          :-------------------------------------------------------------------  
          :  1995  :  1996  :  1995 :  1996 :  1995 :  1996 :  1995  :  1996    
          :-------------------------------------------------------------------  
          :                             1,000 Cwt                               
          :                                                                     
CA        :    235     276                      21      30      256      306    
          :                                                                     
Oth Sts 1/:    391     277      14      49     316     157      721      483    
          :                                                                     
US        :    626     553      14      49     337     187      977      789    
------------------------------------------------------------------------------  
1/  AR, LA, MS, MO, and TX.                                                     
2/  Includes screenings in CA.                                                  
                                                                                
           Rough Rice Stocks:  By Length of Grain in All Positions,             
                        California, October 1, 1995-96                          
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------   
          :      Long       :    Medium     :     Short     :      Total        
          :------------------------------------------------------------------   
  State   :  1995  :  1996  :  1995 : 1996  :  1995 : 1996  :  1995  :  1996    
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------   
          :                             1,000 Cwt                               
          :                                                                     
CA        :    219      *     4,186   4,506     522      *     4,927    4,647   
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------   
*  Not published to avoid disclosing individual reports.                        
                                                                                
                                                                                
            Milled Rice Stocks:  By Length of Grain in All Positions,           
                          California, October 1, 1995-96                        
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------   
          :                      Whole Kernels (Head Rice)                      
          :------------------------------------------------------------------   
  State   :      Long       :    Medium     :     Short     :      Total        
          :------------------------------------------------------------------   
          :  1995  :  1996  : 1995  : 1996  : 1995  : 1996  :  1995  :  1996    
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------   
          :                             1,000 Cwt                               
          :                                                                     
CA        :     51      17     749     780      37      88      837      885    
          :------------------------------------------------------------------   
          :                           Broken Kernels                            
          :------------------------------------------------------------------   
          : Second Heads 1/ :  Screenings   :    Brewers    :      Total        
          :------------------------------------------------------------------   
          :  1995  :  1996  : 1995  : 1996  : 1995  : 1996  :  1995  :  1996    
          :------------------------------------------------------------------   
          :                             1,000 Cwt                               
          :                                                                     
CA        :    279     159                      33      25      312      184    
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------   
1/  Includes screenings.                                                        
                                                                                
                                                                                
            Rice Stocks:  By Position, State, and United States,                
                         August 1 and March 1, 1996                             
----------------------------------------------------------------------------    
          : On Farms    : In Mills    : In Whses   :            :               
          :    or       :    and      :   not      : In Ports   :   Total       
  State   :   Farm      : Attached    : Attached   :   or In    :    All        
          :   Whses     :   Whses     : to Mills   :  Transit   : Positions     
----------------------------------------------------------------------------    
          :                       August 1, 1996                                
----------------------------------------------------------------------------    
                                                                                
          :                    Rough Rice - 1,000 Cwt                           
          :                                                                     
  AR      :       200         2,893        2,725            0         5,818     
  CA      :       100           936        9,325            0        10,361     
  LA      :         *             *            *            *           742     
  MS      :         *             *            *            *         1,372     
  MO      :         *             *            *            *           399     
  TX      :        36           771          347          125         1,279     
  Unall*  :       150           942        1,421            0                   
          :                                                                     
  US      :       486         5,542       13,818          125        19,971     
          :                                                                     
          :                    Milled Rice - 1,000 Cwt                          
          :                                                                     
  AR      :                   1,057           87           14         1,158     
  CA      :                   1,170            0            0         1,170     
  LA      :                       *            *            *             *     
  MS      :                       *            *            *             *     
  MO      :                       *            *            *             *     
  TX      :                     541          181            1           723     
  Unall*  :                     528            1           34           563     
          :                                                                     
  US      :                   3,296          269           49         3,614     
          :                                                                     
          :-----------------------------------------------------------------    
          :                         March 1, 1996                               
          :-----------------------------------------------------------------    
          :                      Rough Rice - 1,000 Cwt                         
          :                                                                     
  AR      :    12,000         6,239       19,054            1        37,294     
  CA      :     1,500         2,083       21,362            0        24,945     
  LA      :     2,200         1,204        4,402           95         7,901     
  MS      :         *             *            *            *         4,793     
  MO      :         *             *            *            *         2,496     
  TX      :     2,000           793        4,779          845         8,417     
  Unall*  :     2,820           783        3,686            0                   
          :                                                                     
  US      :    20,520        11,102       53,283          941        85,846     
          :                                                                     
          :                      Milled Rice - 1,000 Cwt                        
          :                                                                     
  AR      :                   1,128          125           70         1,323     
  CA      :                     884            0            0           884     
  LA      :                       *            *            *             *     
  MS      :                       *            *            *             *     
  MO      :                       *            *            *             *     
  TX      :                     569           23          240           832     
  Unall*  :                     491            0          169           660     
          :                                                                     
  US      :                   3,072          148          479         3,699     
----------------------------------------------------------------------------    
*  Included in unallocated to avoid disclosing individual operations.           
                                                                                
            Rough Rice Stocks:  By Length of Grain in All Positions,            
                California, Other States, and United States, 1996               
----------------------------------------------------------------------------    
          :      Long     :      Medium     :      Short     :      Total       
State     :-----------------------------------------------------------------    
          :                            August 1, 1996                           
----------------------------------------------------------------------------    
          :                                1,000 Cwt                            
          :                                                                     
CA        :      127             9,704              530         10,361          
          :                                                                     
Oth Sts 1/:    7,291             2,318                1          9,610          
          :                                                                     
US        :    7,418            12,022              531         19,971          
          :-----------------------------------------------------------------    
          :      Long     :      Medium     :      Short     :     Total        
          :-----------------------------------------------------------------    
          :                            March 1, 1996                            
          :-----------------------------------------------------------------    
          :                                1,000 Cwt                            
          :                                                                     
CA        :      507            23,492              946         24,945          
          :                                                                     
Oth Sts 1/:   52,123             8,772                6         60,901          
          :                                                                     
US        :   52,630            32,264              952         85,846          
----------------------------------------------------------------------------    
1/  AR, LA, MS, MO, and TX.                                                     
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
            Milled Rice Stocks:  By Length of Grain, in All Positions,          
            California, Other States, and United States, August 1, 1996         
----------------------------------------------------------------------------    
          :                      Whole Kernels (Head Rice)                      
  State   :-----------------------------------------------------------------    
          :      Long     :      Medium     :      Short     :     Total        
----------------------------------------------------------------------------    
          :                              1,000 Cwt                              
          :                                                                     
CA        :       32               932               46          1,010          
          :                                                                     
Oth Sts 1/:    1,895               255                4          2,154          
          :                                                                     
US        :    1,927             1,187               50          3,164          
          :-----------------------------------------------------------------    
          :                           Broken Kernels                            
          :-----------------------------------------------------------------    
          :Second Heads 2/ :   Screenings    :     Brewers    :    Total        
          :-----------------------------------------------------------------    
          :                               1,000 Cwt                             
          :                                                                     
CA        :      135                                 25            160          
          :                                                                     
Oth Sts 1/:      194                14               82            290          
          :                                                                     
US        :      329                14              107            450          
----------------------------------------------------------------------------    
1/  AR, LA, MS, MO and TX.                                                      
2/  Includes screenings in CA.                                                  
                                                                                
            Milled Rice Stocks:  By Length of Grain in All Positions,           
           California, Other States, and United States, March 1, 1996           
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------   
          :                      Whole Kernels (Head Rice)                      
  State   :------------------------------------------------------------------   
          :      Long     :      Medium     :      Short     :    Total         
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------   
          :                              1,000 Cwt                              
          :                                                                     
CA        :       24               660               24            708          
          :                                                                     
Oth Sts 1/:    2,234               210                2          2,446          
          :                                                                     
US        :    2,258               870               26          3,154          
          :------------------------------------------------------------------   
          :                           Broken Kernels                            
          :------------------------------------------------------------------   
          :Second Heads 2/ :   Screenings    :     Brewers   :    Total         
          :------------------------------------------------------------------   
          :                               1,000 Cwt                             
          :                                                                     
CA        :      160                                 16            176          
          :                                                                     
Oth Sts 1/:      246                 6              117            369          
          :                                                                     
US        :      406                 6              133            545          
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------   
1/  AR, LA, MS, MO and TX.                                                      
2/  Includes screenings in CA.                                                  
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
      Reliability of December 1, 1996, Rice Stocks Estimates                    
                                                                                
Survey Procedures:  The rice stocks estimates in this report are based on       
                    surveys conducted during the first 2 weeks of December.     
Separate surveys were conducted to obtain the on-farm and off-farm estimates.   
The on-farm stocks survey is a probability survey based on a sampling           
procedure that ensures that all operations storing rice in the U.S. have a      
chance to be selected.  Data can then be statistically adjusted to provide an   
estimate of rice on all farms.  The off-farm stocks estimate is based on an     
enumeration of all known commercial rice storage facilities.  An effort is      
made to obtain reports from all facilities.  Estimates are made for missing     
facilities to assure complete coverage.                                         
                                                                                
                                                                                
Estimation Procedures:  On-farm and off-farm survey data are reviewed at the    
                        State and national levels for reasonableness,           
consistency with historical estimates, and current crop size.  After estimates  
are made for on-farm and off-farm rice stocks, the total of these two are       
combined and evaluated using the balance sheet approach.  This method utilizes  
other sources of data to check the reasonableness of the stocks estimates.      
Estimates of production, exports, and millings are reviewed to make sure        
beginning stocks, production and utilization, and ending stocks are within      
reasonable balance and present the best possible estimate of stocks.            
                                                                                
                                                                                
Revision Policy:  On-farm and off-farm stocks are subject to revision in the    
                  report following the initial publication and again in the     
December 1, "Rice Stocks" report published in January each year.  Revisions     
can be made when late reports are received, errors are detected in reporting    
and calculating, and when production estimates are revised.  Estimates will     
also be reviewed after data for the 5-year Census of Agriculture, conducted by  
the Department of Commerce, are available.  No revisions will be made after     
that date.                                                                      
                                                                                
                                                                                
Reliability:  Reliability of the on-farm and off-farm rice stocks estimates     
must                                                                            
              be treated separately because the survey design for the two       
surveys are drastically different.  The on-farm stocks estimates are subject    
to sampling variability because all operations holding on-farm stocks are not   
included in the sample.                                                         
                                                                                
Survey estimates are also subject to non sampling errors such as omission,      
duplication, imputation for missing data, and mistakes in reporting,            
recording, and processing the data.  Off-farm, as well as on-farm stocks, are   
subject to these types or errors.  These errors cannot be measured directly,    
but they are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection    
process and a careful review of all reported data for consistency and           
reasonableness.                                                                 
                                                                                
                                                                                
The next "Rice Stocks" report will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET on               
March 31, 1997.                                                                 
                                                                                
                                                                                
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              Omni Shoreham Hotel, Washington, D.C.                             
                                                                                
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                          Agricultural                                          
                             Outlook                                            
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