Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

OE ENERGY

MARKET SNAPSHOT

East Version – September 2014 Data

Office of Enforcement

Federal Energy Regulatory Commission

November 2014
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov

http://www.ferc.gov/market-oversight/reports-analyses/mkt

16-14-A-3.pdf

2014/2015 Winter Asse

2
Item No. A-3

October 16, 2014

Winter 2014-15 

Energy Market 

Assessment
Developments

• Record natural gas production• Increased natural gas-electric 

coordination

• Enhanced reliability measures

Challenges• Winter futures price

substantially in som

• Below average natu

storage

• Lower coal stockpile• Regional pipeline re• Increased reliance ogas for electricity

Markets Cautious a

Winter Approache
Source: Derived from ICE data.

Note: Prices through September 30, 2014. 

Higher Natural Gas Prices Across Most of the Country Pricing Point

BOLD – 30 Day Average PriceGreen – % increase from previous year

Red – % decrease from previous year

$3.93

5

$3.63

84

$3.77

16

$4.46

12

$4.10

8

$3.91

7

$3.75

6

$T

$3.82

6

$3.74

9

AECO 

Chicago

NGPL Midcon

El Paso

SoCal 

PG&E

CIG

Sumas

HSC

$3.90

14

Henry Hub 
Source: NOAA National Weather Service

Uncertain Winter Forecast
Mid-Atlantic* Gas Dem

at Historical High Lev

Source: Derived from GPCM data. *Mid-Atlantic also includes KY and OH

ResCommPowerBurnIndustrialOtherSeasonal Normal

 -

 5.0

 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0

Bcfd

Winter 13/14max: 25.7 Bcfd

Wima
Fuel Diversity Helps N

England Gas Deman

Source: Derived from GPCM data. 

ResCommPowerBurnIndustrialSeasonal Normal
0.0

1.02.03.04.05.0

U.S Storage Levels (Tcf)

Source: Derived from EIA data and GPCM data. Storage Levels: Production Area West Storage East Storage 5-yr Avg. 

Record Storage Inject

Help Close the Stora

Shortfall 
Source: Derived from staff analysis.

2014 Pipeline Expans

Target Northeast 

Production

ConstructionOnline

NY PA OH IL IN MS 

Northeast Midwest So

Destination

1.41.21.00.80.60.40.2

0

Bcfd
 Volatility in electricity prices in th

Northeast from increased dependon natural gas

 California may face electricity sup

issues, such as increased ramp requirements

Winter Electric 

Market Challenge
Coal Stockpiles Decl

Source: Derived from Velocity Suite, based on EIA data.

0

102030405060708090

Jan-10

Jun-10

Nov-10

Apr -11

Sep-11

Feb-12

Jul-12

Dec-12

Million TonsPRB Central App Other Illinois

Basin
Source: Derived from 

ICE and Nymex data.^January and February 2015 as of October 1 2014*January and February 2014 as of October 1 2013*SP-15 2014 prices from October 31 2013*Power Note: Prices in $/MWh . Peak financial swap prices.*Gas Note: Prices in $/MMBtu. Regional futures natural gas prices are the sum of the Henry Hub futures contract price plus the regional basis futures. 

P

o

w

e

r

G

a

s

Location 2015^ 

Algonquin (New England) $21.45 

Transco Zone

6 non

‐NY (Mid

‐

Atlantic) $9.09 

Dominion South (Marcellus) $2.85 

Southern California Border $4.30 

Henry Hub $4.08 

Massachussets Hub $183.88 

PJM Western Hub $72.60 

Northwest (Mid

‐C) $37.73 

Southern California (SP

‐15) $46.13 

Futures Prices Eleva
 Market Rule Changes

 Improve communication between na

gas pipelines and electric transmissioperators

 Increased winterization and testing 

generators

Actions in Respons

to Last Winter
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov

Office of Energy Projects Energy Infrastructure U

http://www.ferc.gov/legal/staff-reports.asp

(see “Energy Infrastructure” tab) 

Infrastructure Report

15
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov

National Slides

16
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov

17

NOAA Nov 2014 Through Jan 2015 Outlook
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov

Pitts

burgh

Calgary

City Location

Chicago

N

Oklahoma

City

Los Dallas

Angeles

Sacra

mento Denver

Portland

Houston New 

Orleans 

Vancouver

This YearLast Year5 Year Average

Cumulative HDDs by City 

Source: Bloomberg Weather

Atla

Updated

9

7

100

86

000

894370

12

4

12

100

000

1

7

9

127143

9

4

8781

668275

188151

062

000

September

10

18
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov

Pitts

burgh

Calgary

City Location

Chicago

N

Oklahoma

City

Los Dallas

Angeles

Sacra

mento Denver

Portland

Houston New 

Orleans 

Vancouver

This YearLast Year5 Year Average

Cumulative CDDs by City 

Source: Bloomberg Weather

Atla

Updated

September

10

111

718687

500573531

1

2

1

174111

311

374299

466591474

481543495

377

8

7

140101

023

969281

277

199249

344

267274

292525

19
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov

Columbia

TCO

AECO 

Pricing PointBOLD – This YearGreen – % increase from previous yearRed – % decrease from previous year

ChicagoCitygate

Tran

Z6-

NGPL

Tex-Okla

El Paso

Permian

SoCal 

Border

PG&E

Citygate

CIG

NW 

Sumas

HSC Henry Hub

Spot Natural Gas Prices 

Average ($/MMBtu)

Source: ICE Updated

September

10

$2.

‐40

$2.9

5

‐33%

$3.90

8%

$3.9

4

7%

$3.8

5

7%

$3.82

9%

$3.92

8%

$3.62

80%

$3.71

9%

$4.

8

5

46%

$4.4

3

11%

$4.1

0

10%

20
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov

Columbia

TCO

Pricing PointBOLD – This yearGreen – % increase from previous yearRed – % decrease from previous year

ChicagoCitygate

Tra

Z6

NGPL

Tex-Okla

El Paso

Permian

SoCal 

Border

PG&E

Citygate

CIG

NW 

Sumas

HSC Henry Hub

F

Spot Natural Gas Trading Volu

Average (MMBtus)

Source: ICE Updated

September

10

7

‐

9

15,180 ‐7%

1

91,860

‐57%

198,03

7

‐48%

251,503

‐17%

304,92

7

‐19%

36,80

7

‐24%

54,493 ‐15%

5

6,47

3

40%

5

24,28

7

11%

515,

6

4

0

52%

21
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

U.S. NG Supply and Demand Year to Date - Sep 2013 vs. 

National Natural Gas Market Overview: U.S. Supply and Consumption

Note: Balance includes all amounts not attributable to other categories.Source: Derived from Bentek Energy data 

0

102030405060708090

100

2013 2014

Average Daily Volume (Bcfd)

US Natural Gas Supply

0

102030405060708090

100

2013 

Average Daily Volume (Bcfd)

US Natural Gas D

Total Change in Demand

Power 

Generation

Net Dry Gas

Production

Net Pipeline

Imports

3.6%

4.2%

-55.2%

-1.0%

LNG Imports

Industrial

Total Change in Supply 3

Residential/ 

Commercial

22
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

National Natural Gas Market Overview: Canadian Imports

Regional Imports from Canada

Source: Derived from Bentek Energy data 

(2)

02468

1012

Bcfd

Northwest NeMidwest Net INortheast Net 

23
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

Total U.S. Natural Gas Demand All Sectors

National Natural Gas Market Overview: Total US Gas Demand

Source: Derived from Bentek Energy data, derived from interstate pipeline flow and modeled data. 

0

20406080

100120140160

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov De

Bcfd

2009-2013 Ran2014

24
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

U.S. Natural Gas Consumption for Power Generat

National Natural Gas Market Overview: NG Consumption for Power Generation

Source: Derived from Bentek Energy data 

0

5,000

10,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,00040,000

MMcfd

2009-13 Range2014

25
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

EIA National Storage Inventories by Region

National Natural Gas Market Overview: Natural Gas Storage Inventory

Source: Derived from Bloomberg Data

Notes:

0

500

1,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,500

U.S Storage Levels (Bcf)

East Storage LevelWest Storage LevelProduction Area Storage Level5 Year Average

26
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

EIA National Storage Inventories

National Natural Gas Market Overview: Natural Gas Storage Inventory

Source: Derived from Bloomberg Data

Notes:

0

500

1,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,500

Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Fe

Storage (Bcf)

5 Year Range 2013 20

27
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

EIA Regional Storage Inventories

National Natural Gas Market Overview: Natural Gas Storage Inventory

Source: Derived from Bloomberg DataNotes:

28

0

500

1,0001,5002,0002,500

EAST

0

100200300400500600 WEST

0

500

1,0001,500

Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 

5 Year Range 2013 

PRODUCING
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

Monthly U.S. Dry Gas Production – Lower 48 Stat

National Natural Gas Market Overview: Monthly U.S. Dry Gas Production

Note: Prior to July 2010, chart was derived from a combination of EIA and Bentek Energy data

Source: Derived from Bentek Energy data 

1020304050607080

Bcfd

Dry Production

29
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

Rigs by Type

National Natural Gas Market Overview: Rig Count by Type

Source: Derived from Bloomberg dataNotes:

0

200400600800

1,0001,2001,4001,6001,800

Oct‐10

Jan‐11

Apr‐11

Jul‐11

Oct‐11

Jan‐12

Apr‐12

Jul‐12

Oct‐12

Jan‐13

Apr‐13

Jul‐13

Oct‐13

Jan14

Baker Hughes Rig Count (Rigs)

Oil Rigs Gas Rigs

30
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

Total US Rig Count

National Natural Gas Market Overview: Rig Count by Direction

Source: Derived from Bloomberg dataNotes:

0

500

1,0001,5002,0002,500

Baker Hughes Rigs By Drill Type Vertical Horizontal Directio

31
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

Daily Gas Sendout from Existing U.S. LNG Facilit

National Natural Gas Market Overview: LNG Market-Daily Gas Sendout

Notes: Everett data includes flows onto the AGT and TGP interstate lines, plus estimates of flows to the Mystic 7 power plant, Keyspan Boston 

Gas, and LNG trucked out of the terminal. Excludes flows to the Freeport LNG which flows via intrastate pipelines and flows to the Mystic 8 and 9 power plants.Source: Derived from Bentek Energy data 

0

500

1,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,5005,000

Daily LNG Sendout (MMcfd)

Sabine PassLake CharlesGolden PassFreeportNortheast GatExcelerateCameronElba IslandCove PointEverett (Gross

0

1,0002,0003,0004,000 Monthly Average

32
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

Source: Waterborne Energy, Inc. Data in $US/MMBtuNote: Includes information and Data supplied by IHS Global Inc. and its affiliates (“IHS”); Copyright (publication year) all rights reserved.

World LNG Estimated October 2014 Landed 

Updated 

National Natural Gas Market Overview: World LNG Landed Prices

Cove Point

$4.50

India

$11.55

UK

$8.75

Spain

$9.05

Belgium

$8.84

Korea

$12.40

Lake Charles

$3.96 Altamira $4.60

Cove Point

$4.40

India

$11.55

UK

$8.75

Spain

$9.15

Belgium

$8.99

Korea

$13.10

Lake Charles

$3.93 Altamira $4.57

Cove Point

$4.50

India

$11.55

UK

$8.75

Spain

$9.05

Belgium

$8.84

Korea

$12.40

Lake Charles

$3.96 Altamira $4.60

Cove Point

India

UK

Spain

Belgium

Korea

Lake Charles

Altamira

Rio de Janeiro

Bahia Blanca

Canaport

C

$14.01

$14.55

$14.23

$3.57

$2.81 $6.31

$12.10

$9.13

$8.99

$14.10 $1

$14.8

33
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

Historical and Future World Gas Prices

National Natural Gas Market Overview: LNG Competitive Price Hubs

Source: Derived from Bloomberg data Notes:

$0$5

$10$15$20$25$30

Oct‐12

Dec‐12

Feb‐13

Apr‐13

Jun‐13

Aug‐13

Oct‐13

Dec‐13

Feb‐14

Apr‐14

Jun‐14

Aug‐14

Oct‐14

Dec‐14

Feb‐15

$/MMBtu

Henry Hub TZ6 NYAlgonquin Citygates UKNBPJapanese LNG Spot Price Futures Price

34
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

National Natural Gas Market Overview: WTI vs Brent Oil Price

Source: Derived from Bloomberg data 

WTI vs Brent Crude Oil Price

$60$70$80$90

$100$110$120$130

Oil Prices($/Barrel)

WtI Oil Brent C

35
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

National Natural Gas Market Overview: Nymex Futures Curve

Source: Derived from Bloomberg data 

Nymex Futures Curves

$0.00$1.00$2.00$3.00$4.00$5.00$6.00

Nov‐14

Feb‐15

May‐15

Aug‐15

Nov‐15

Feb‐16

May‐16

Aug‐16

Nov‐16

Feb‐17

Nymex Futures Curves($/MMBtu) 10/26/2013 4/27/2014

9/27/2014 10/28/2014

36
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

US Total Generation Mix

National Electricity Market Overview: Generation Mix

37
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

Natural Gas and Fuels MEast
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

Northeast Day-Ahead Prices

Averaged Annually/ Seasonally

Northeast Natural Gas Market: Annual Hub Prices

Source: Derived from ICE data Notes:

Updated

39

Average Day

Ahead Prices

($/MMBtu)

Algonquin

Citygates

Transco

Zone 6

NY

Transco

Zone 6

Non‐NY

Columb

Applach

Annual 5.02 5.02 4.69 4Summer 4.56 4.55 4.41 4Winter 2011/2012 4.00 3.59 3.09 2Annual 3.95 3.27 2.98 2Summer 3.25 2.86 2.83 2Winter 2012/2013 9.49 6.69 4.10 3Annual 6.95 5.11 4.03 3Summer 4.24 3.92 3.84 3Winter 2013/2014 15.76 11.40 9.66 4Annual 8.36 6.79 6.44 4Summer 3.47 2.89 3.53 4Winter 2014/2015

2011 2012 2013 2014 YTD
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

Northeast Day-Ahead Prices

Northeast Natural Gas Market: Day-Ahead Prices

Source: Derived from ICE data Notes:

Update

$0

$20$40$60$80

$100$120$140

Day-Ahead Prices ($/MMBtu)

Transco Zone 6 NY Transco Z6 NoColumbia TCO Pool Algonquin City 

$0

$10$20$30

2011 2012 2013 2014

30 Day Moving Avg

40
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

Northeast Monthly Average Basis Value To Henry H

Northeast Natural Gas Market: Average Basis to Henry Hub

Source: Derived from ICE data Notes:

Updated

-$5.00

$0.00$5.00

$10.00$15.00$20.00$25.00

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

2012 2013 2

Day-Ahead Basis Averaged Monthly 

($/MMBtu)

Transco Zone 6 NY BasisTransco Z6 Non-NY BasisColumbia TCO Pool BasisAlgonquin Citygate Basis

41

10
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

Northeast Day-Ahead Basis

Northeast Natural Gas Market: Yearly Hub Prices

Source: Derived from ICE data Notes:

Updated

-$20

$0

$20$40$60$80

$100$120$140

Day-Ahead Basis ($/MMBtu)

Transco Zone 6 NY Basis Transco Z6 Non-NY Columbia TCO Pool Basis Algonquin City Gat

$0$5

$10$15

2011 2012 2013 2014

30D Moving Avg

42

10
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

Daily Northeast Natural Gas Demand All Sector

Northeast Natural Gas Market: Daily Demand

Source: Derived from Bentek Energy dataNote: Northeast is defined as Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Connecticut, New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Delaware, Maryland, Virginia, West Virginia, Ohio and Kentucky 

05

1015202530354045

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov D

Bcfd

2009-2013 Range 2014

43
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

Northeast Natural Gas Consumption for Power Gene

Northeast Natural Gas Market Overview: NG Consumption for Power Generation

Source: Derived from Bentek Energy dataNote: Northeast is defined as Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Connecticut, New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Delaware, Maryland, Virginia, West Virginia, Ohio and Kentucky 

0

1,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,0009,000

MMcfd

2009-13 R2014

44
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

Southeast Day-Ahead Prices

Averaged Annually/Seasonally

Southeast Natural Gas Market: Annual Hub Prices

Source: Derived from ICE data Notes:

Average Day

Ahead Prices

($/MMBtu) FGT Z3 Tetco‐M1

Transco

St 65

Transco

Zone 5 

Annual 4.04 3.98 3.98 4.5Summer 4.22 4.12 4.13 4.3Winter 2011/2012 2.79 2.74 2.74 2.9Annual 2.94 2.73 2.75 2.9Summer 2.97 2.65 2.67 2.8Winter 2012/2013 3.51 3.47 3.48 3.9Annual 3.77 3.66 3.71 4.0Summer 3.83 3.68 3.74 3.8Winter 2013/2014 4.62 4.61 4.60 9.4Annual 4.54 4.49 4.49 7.0Summer 4.28 4.19 4.22 4.3Winter 2014/2015

2011 2012 2013 2014 YTD

45
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

Southeast Day-Ahead Prices

Southeast Natural Gas Market: Day-Ahead Prices

Source: Derived from ICE data Notes:

$0

$20$40$60$80

$100$120$140

Spot Day-Ahead Prices ($/MMBtu)

Tetco-M1 FGT Z3 Transco Transco Zone 5 Henry Hub

$0$2$4$6

2011 2012 2013 2014

30 Day Moving Avg

46
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

Southeast Day-Ahead Basis

Southeast Natural Gas Market: Day Ahead Basis To Henry Hub

Source: Derived from ICE data Notes:

47

-$20

$0

$20$40$60$80

$100$120$140

Day Ahead Basis ($/MMBtu)

Tetco-M1 Basis FGT Z3 BasTransco St 65 Basis Transco Zon

‐$10

$0

$10$20$30 30D Moving Avg
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

Southeast Monthly Average Basis Value To Henry 

Southeast Natural Gas Market: Average Basis to Henry Hub

Source: Derived from ICE data Notes:

Updated

 $(5.00)

 $-

 $5.00

 $10.00 $15.00 $20.00 $25.00

101112 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112 1 2 3 4 5 

2012 2013 2

Day-Ahead Prices Averaged Monthly 

($/MMBtu)

FGT Z3 BasisTetco-M1 BasisTransco St 65 BasisTransco Zone 5 Basis

48
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

Daily Southeast Natural Gas Demand All Sector

Southeast Natural Gas Market: Daily Demand

Source: Derived from Bentek Energy dataNote: Southeast is defined as North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, Arkansas, and Tennessee.

05

1015202530

Bcfd

2009-2013 R2014

49
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

Southeast Natural Gas Consumption for Power Gene

Southeast Natural Gas Market: NG Consumption for Power Generation

Source: Derived from Bentek Energy dataNote: Southeast is defined as North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, Arkansas, and Tennessee.

0

2,0004,0006,0008,000

10,00012,000

MMcfd

2009-13 Range2014

50
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

Electricity MarketsEast

51
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

PJM Real Time Prices—Two Year History 

Northeast Electricity Market: PJM Real Time Prices

52

Updated: 10/2

0

100200300400500600700800900

Oct-12

Nov-12

Dec-12

Jan-13

Feb-13

Mar-13

Apr-13

May-13

Jun-13

Jul-13

Aug-13

Sep-13

Oct-13

Nov-13

Dec-13

Jan-14

Feb-14

Mar-14

Apr-14

May-14

Jun-14

Weighted Daily Avg ($/MWh)

Prior YearLast 30 days PJM Western Hub Daily Avg Real Time Price was $34.84.Last 30 days PJM Eastern Hub Daily Avg Real Time Price was $40.55.Last 30 days PJM Dayton Hub Daily Avg Real Time Price was $36.39.Last 30 days PJM Dominion Hub Daily Avg Real Time Price was $37.48.

Source: Genscape via Bloomberg
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

PJM System Daily Average Load —Two Year Histo

Northeast Electricity Market: PJM Average Daily Load

53

Updated

0

20406080

100120140160

Oct-12

Nov-12

Dec-12

Jan-13

Feb-13

Mar-13

Apr-13

May-13

Jun-13

Jul-13

Aug-13

Sep-13

Oct-13

Nov-13

Dec-13

Jan-14

Feb-14

Mar-14

Apr-14

May-14

Jun-14

Weighted Daily Avg Load (GW)

Prior Year Last 30 days average on peak load was 87 GW. Last 30 days average off peak load 

Source: Genscape via Bloomberg
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

PJM Western Hub Peak RT Futures

Northeast Electricity Market: PJM Western Hub Peak RT Futures

54

Updated: 10

$0

$10$20$30$40$50$60$70$80$90

Oct-14

Jan-15

Apr-15

Jul-15

Oct-15

Jan-16

Apr-16

Jul-16

Oct-16

Jan-17

Apr-17

Jul-17

Oct-17

Jan-18

Apr-18

Jul-18

Oct-18

Jan-19

Futures Price ($/MWh)

Current open interest for next month is 4674 contracts.Yesterday's forward curve range was $38 to $72.One week ago the forward curve range was $37 to $69.One month ago the forward curve range was $38 to $77.Six months ago the forward curve range was $41 to $80.

Source: NYMEX Clearport via Bloomberg
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

PJM On-Peak Spark & Dark Spreads – One Year His

Northeast Electricity Market: PJM On-Peak Spark & Dark Spreads

Update

‐600‐400‐200

0

200400600800

Spark& Dark Spreads ($/MWh)

Last 30 Days Avg On‐Peak Spark Spread was $27.46 per MWh. Last 30 Days Avg On‐Peak Dark Spread wa

‐20‐15‐10

‐5

05

1015

Oct‐13 Nov‐13 Dec‐13 Jan‐14 Feb‐14 Mar‐14 Apr‐14 May‐14 Jun‐14 Jul‐14 Au

Difference in Spreads ($/MWh)

NG more profitable.(Last 30 day avg $4.24 per MWh.) Coal more profitable.

Assumptions:Electricity Price = PJM Western Hub Peak DA

NG Price Point = TETCO M3 spot

NG Heat Rate = 7000 mmBtu/kWh

Coal Type = Central Appalacian

Coal Heat Content = 12000 Btu/lb

Coal Heat Rate = 10000 mmBtu/kWh Sources (all via Bloomberg): Electricity Price: G

PJM On-Peak Spark Spread minus Dark Spread
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

NYISO Real Time Prices—Two Year History 

Northeast Electricity Market: NYISO Real Time Prices

56

Updated: 10/2

-50

50

150250350450550

Oct-12

Nov-12

Dec-12

Jan-13

Feb-13

Mar-13

Apr-13

May-13

Jun-13

Jul-13

Aug-13

Sep-13

Oct-13

Nov-13

Dec-13

Jan-14

Feb-14

Mar-14

Apr-14

May-14

Jun-14

Weighted Daily Avg ($/MWh)

Prior YearLast 30 days Long Island Daily Avg Real Time Price was $39.20.Last 30 days NYC Daily Avg Real Time Price was $30.62.Last 30 days NYISO Capital Zone Daily Avg Real Time Price was $29.98.Last 30 days NYISO West Zone Avg Real Time Price was $28.73.

Source: Genscape via Bloomberg
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

NYISO System Daily Average Load —Two Year Hist

Northeast Electricity Market: NYISO Average Daily Load

57

Updated: 

05

10152025303540

Oct-12

Nov-12

Dec-12

Jan-13

Feb-13

Mar-13

Apr-13

May-13

Jun-13

Jul-13

Aug-13

Sep-13

Oct-13

Nov-13

Dec-13

Jan-14

Feb-14

Mar-14

Apr-14

May-14

Jun-14

Weighted Daily Avg Load (GW)

Prior Year Last 30 days average on peak load was 19 GW. Last 30 days average off peak load 

Source: Genscape via Bloomberg
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

NYISO Hudson Valley Zone Peak DA Futures

Northeast Electricity Market: NYISO Hudson Valley Zone Peak DA Futures

58

Updated: 10/29

$0

$20$40$60$80

$100$120$140$160

Oct-14

Jan-15

Apr-15

Jul-15

Oct-15

Jan-16

Apr-16

Jul-16

Oct-16

Jan-17

Apr-17

Jul-17

Oct-17

Jan-18

Apr-18

Jul-18

Oct-18

Jan-19

Futures Price ($/MWh)

Current open interest for next month is 1919 contracts.Yesterday's forward curve range was $39 to $124.One week ago the forward curve range was $39 to $121.One month ago the forward curve range was $39 to $138.Six months ago the forward curve range was $48 to $129.

Source: NYMEX Clearport via Bloomberg
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

NYISO NYC On-Peak Spark & Dark Spreads – One Year 

Northeast Electricity Market: NYISO NYC On-Peak Spark & Dark Spreads

59

Up

‐800‐600‐400‐200

0

200400600

Spark& Dark Spreads ($/MWh)

Last 30 Days Avg On‐Peak Spark Spread was $23.99 per MWh. Last 30 Days Avg On‐Peak Dark Spread w

‐100

‐80‐60‐40‐20

0

20

Oct‐13 Nov‐13 Dec‐13 Jan‐14 Feb‐14 Mar‐14 Apr‐14 May‐14 Jun‐14 Jul‐14 Au

Difference in Spreads ($/MWh)

NG more profitable.(Last 30 day avg $3.48 per MWh.) Coal more profitable.

Assumptions:Electricity Price = NYC Zone J On‐Peak DA

NG Price Point = Transco Z6 spot

NG Heat Rate = 7000 mmBtu/kWh

Coal Type = Central Appalacian

Coal Heat Content = 12000 Btu/lb

Coal Heat Rate = 10000 mmBtu/kWh Sources (all via Bloomberg): Electricity P

NYISO NYC On-Peak Spark minus Dark Spread
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

NYISO Capital Zone On-Peak Spark & Dark Spreads – One 

Northeast Electricity Market: NYISO Capital Zone On-Peak Spark & Dark Spreads

60

‐800‐600‐400‐200

0

200400600

Spark& Dark Spreads ($/MWh)

Last 30 Days Avg On‐Peak Spark Spread was $23.99 per MWh. Last 30 Days Avg On‐Peak Dark Spread w

‐100

‐80‐60‐40‐20

0

20

Oct‐13 Nov‐13 Dec‐13 Jan‐14 Feb‐14 Mar‐14 Apr‐14 May‐14 Jun‐14 Jul‐14 Au

Difference in Spreads ($/MWh)

NG more profitable.(Last 30 day avg $3.48 per MWh.) Coal more profitable.

Assumptions:Electricity Price = NYC Zone J On‐Peak DA

NG Price Point = Transco Z6 spot

NG Heat Rate = 7000 mmBtu/kWh

Coal Type = Central Appalacian

Coal Heat Content = 12000 Btu/lb

Coal Heat Rate = 10000 mmBtu/kWh Sources (all via Bloomberg): Electricity P

NYISO Capital Zone On-Peak Spark minus Dark Sp
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

ISO-NE Real Time Prices—Two Year History 

Northeast Electricity Market: ISO-NE Real Time Prices

61

Updated: 10/29

0

50

100150200250300350400

Oct-12

Nov-12

Dec-12

Jan-13

Feb-13

Mar-13

Apr-13

May-13

Jun-13

Jul-13

Aug-13

Sep-13

Oct-13

Nov-13

Dec-13

Jan-14

Feb-14

Mar-14

Apr-14

May-14

Jun-14

Weighted Daily Avg ($/MWh)

Prior YearLast 30 days NE Mass/Boston Daily Avg Real Time Price was $31.55. Last 30 days Connecticut Zone Daily Avg Real Time Price was $31.48.Last 30 days Internal Hub Daily Avg Real Time Price was $31.43. Last 30 days Maine Zone Avg Real Time Price was $29.24.

Source: Genscape via Bloomberg
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

ISO-NE System Daily Average Load —Two Year His

Northeast Electricity Market: ISO-NE Average Daily Load

62

Up

05

1015202530

Oct-12

Nov-12

Dec-12

Jan-13

Feb-13

Mar-13

Apr-13

May-13

Jun-13

Jul-13

Aug-13

Sep-13

Oct-13

Nov-13

Dec-13

Jan-14

Feb-14

Mar-14

Apr-14

May-14

Jun-14

Weighted Daily Avg Load (GW)

Prior Year Last 30 days average on peak load was 17 GW. Last 30 days average off peak load 

Source: Genscape via Bloomberg
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

ISO-NE Internal Hub Peak DA Futures

Northeast Electricity Market: ISO-NE Internal Hub Peak DA Futures

63

Updated: 10/2

$0

$50

$100$150$200$250

Oct-14

Jan-15

Apr-15

Jul-15

Oct-15

Jan-16

Apr-16

Jul-16

Oct-16

Jan-17

Apr-17

Jul-17

Oct-17

Jan-18

Apr-18

Jul-18

Oct-18

Jan-19

Futures Price ($/MWh)

Current open interest for next month is 1729 contracts.Yesterday's forward curve range was $38 to $172.One week ago the forward curve range was $37 to $168.One month ago the forward curve range was $39 to $194.Six months ago the forward curve range was $39 to $160.

Source: NYMEX Clearport via Bloomberg
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

Northeast Electricity Market: ISO-NE On-Peak Spark & Dark Spreads

64

‐400‐300‐200‐100

0

100200300400500

Spark& Dark Spreads ($/MWh)

Last 30 Days Avg On‐Peak Spark Spread was $19.20 per MWh. Last 30 Days Avg On‐Peak Dark Spread w

‐150‐130‐110

‐90‐70‐50‐30‐10

1030

Oct‐13 Nov‐13 Dec‐13 Jan‐14 Feb‐14 Mar‐14 Apr‐14 May‐14 Jun‐14 Jul‐14 Au

Difference in Spreads ($/MWh)

NG more profitable.(Last 30 day avg $1.09 per MWh.) Coal more profitable.

Assumptions:Electricity Price= Internal Hub On‐Peak DA

NG PricePoint = Algonquin Boston City Gate Spot

NG Heat Rate = 7000 mmBtu/kWhCoal Type = Central Appalacian

Coal Heat Content = 12000 Btu/lbCoal Heat Rate = 10000 mmBtu/kWh Sources (all via Bloomberg): ElectricityPrice

ISO-NE On-Peak Spark & Dark Spreads – One Year H

ISO-NE On-Peak Spark minus Dark Spread
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

65

Northeast Electricity Market: New England Generation Mix

New England Generation Mix
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

66

Upd

Northeast Electricity Market: Mid Atlantic Generation Mix

Mid Atlantic Generation Mix
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversig

67

Updated: 

Northeast Electricity Market: South Atlantic Generation Mix

South Atlantic Generation Mix