HDR1012000110080514961500POTATO STOCKS
Released May 14, 1996, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS),
Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture.  For information
on "Potato Stocks" call Arvin Budge at (202) 720-4285, office hours 8:00 a.m. to
4:30 p.m. ET.  For assistance with general agricultural statistics, information
about NASS, its products or services, contact the NASS Information Hotline at
1-800-727-9540 or E-mail: NASS@NASS.USDA.GOV.


                   Lowest May Stocks Since 1991


Potato stocks totaled 72.2 million cwt on May 1, 1996, down 17 percent from last
year and 2 percent below two years ago.  This is the lowest May 1 potato stocks
level since 1991.  Disappearance for the season totaled 320 million cwt of
potatoes, 1 percent below last year but 6 percent above 1994.  Shrink and loss
of 30.0 million cwt was 2 percent below a year ago.  Processors used a record
high 156 million cwt of potatoes, up 1 percent for the season.  April processing
totaled 16.8 million cwt, down 10 percent from a year earlier.


Pot 1-2 (5-96)

         Fall Potatoes:  Production and Stocks, 15 Major States, 1986-95
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
   Crop  :          :         :         :         :         :         :
   Year  :Production:  Dec 1  :  Jan 1  :  Feb 1  :  Mar 1  :  Apr 1  :  May 1
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
         :                              1,000 Cwt
         :
1986     : 307,928    209,435   180,915   154,545   128,720    95,090   59,790
1987     : 335,607    225,890   196,760   167,325   138,800   105,905   70,030
1988     : 305,623    206,420   177,750   151,050   124,485    92,585   59,355
1989     : 316,097    202,050   173,550   144,290   116,600    84,320   50,675
1990     : 344,200    225,500   194,460   162,850   134,470   101,150   63,040
1991     : 363,541    242,070   211,005   178,515   145,820   108,865   69,110
1992     : 368,516    246,820   215,990   184,560   152,795   115,785   75,040
1993     : 375,004    249,710   217,800   186,090   154,135   115,970   73,860
1994     : 409,009    271,890   237,560   201,870   168,770   128,825   87,500
1995     : 391,816    252,080   218,970   184,755   152,255   112,925   72,210
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



        Potatoes:  Quantity Used for Processing, Eight States, 1993-95 1/
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
     State and     :        :        :        :       :       :       :
     Crop Year     : Dec 1  : Jan 1  : Feb 1  : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 : Season
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                   :                         1,000 Cwt
                   :
ID & OR-Malheur Co :
  1993             : 24,090   30,540   37,150   44,720  53,070  61,440   85,780
  1994             : 26,620   34,230   42,330   49,890  57,990  66,680   90,300
  1995             : 27,310   35,040   43,260   51,530  59,060  66,690
                   :
ME 2/              :
  1993             :  1,350    1,720    2,210    2,505   2,890   3,275    4,555
  1994             :  1,505    1,840    2,265    2,540   2,985   3,330    4,770
  1995             :  1,335    1,685    2,200    2,540   3,025   3,465
                   :
WA & OR - Other    :
  1993             : 28,260   33,350   39,010   45,020  51,290  57,180   70,690
  1994             : 28,670   33,480   39,120   46,070  52,940  59,540   76,780
  1995             : 30,000   35,170   39,460   45,280  51,730  57,360
                   :
Oth Sts 3/         :
  1993             :  7,605    9,515   11,605   13,720  16,080  18,705   25,690
  1994             :  9,725   13,110   15,630   18,260  21,115  24,060   32,260
  1995             : 12,360   15,330   18,415   21,485  24,910  28,010
                   :
Total              :
  1993             : 61,305   75,125   89,975  105,965 123,330 140,600  186,715
  1994             : 66,520   82,660   99,345  116,760 135,030 153,610  204,110
  1995             : 71,005   87,225  103,335  120,835 138,725 155,525
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/  Total quantity received and used for processing regardless of the State in
    which the potatoes were produced.  Amount excludes quantities used for
    potato chips in ME, MI, MN, ND, and WI.
2/  Includes Maine grown potatoes only.
3/  MI, MN, ND, and WI.

           Fall Potatoes:  Production and Stocks on May 1, 1995-96 1/
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
               :          Crop of 1994          :         Crop of 1995
               :----------------------------------------------------------------
     State     :          :  Stocks  :    %     :          :  Stocks  :    %
               :   Prod   :  May 1,  :    of    :   Prod   :  May 1,  :   of
               :          :   1995   :   Prod   :          :   1996   :  Prod
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
               : ---- 1,000 Cwt ---      Pct      ---- 1,000 Cwt ---      Pct
               :
CA             :   5,600      1,400       25        5,330      1,200      23
CO             :  25,795      6,100       24       23,808      6,200      26
ID             : 138,801     39,500       28      131,274     34,500      26
ME             :  18,375      2,800       15       17,160      2,800      16
MI             :  12,180      1,200       10       16,500      1,200       7
MN             :  17,755      4,100       23       20,790      4,500      22
MT             :   3,200        350       11        2,940        310      11
NE             :   3,996        310        8        3,680      2/220
NY             :   7,805      2/105                 7,695        200       3
ND             :  28,200      4,700       17       25,410      4,500      18
OH             :   1,348         2/                 1,404         2/
OR             :  27,514      7,000       25       23,760      3,000      13
PA             :   3,780        135        4        4,080        180       4
WA             :  88,920     17,000       19       80,850     11,500      14
WI             :  25,740      2,800       11       27,135      1,900       7
               :
Total 15 State : 409,009     87,500       21      391,816     72,210      18
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/ Stocks include processor holdings and some seed to plant 1996 potatoes.  1995
    crop seed usage total 29.3 million cwt.
2/ Combined to prevent possible disclosure of individual operations.

                  Potato Stocks Down 17 Percent


May 1, 1995 stocks totaled 72.2 million cwt, down 17 percent from last year and
2 percent below two years ago.  Stocks made up 18 percent of fall potato
production in the 15 storage States, down three percentage points from last
year.  Disappearance was down 1 percent from last year.  Processor usage was up
1 percent.  Shrinkage and loss was 2 percent below a year ago.

Processors accounted for 156 million cwt of potatoes from the 1995 crop, up 1
percent from the same period last year and 11 percent above two years ago.
April processor usage was 16.8 million cwt, down 10 percent from a year ago and
3 percent below two years ago.


Disappearance from the start of harvest through April totaled 320 million cwt of
potatoes, down 1 percent from last year but 6 percent above two years ago.
Shrinkage and loss was 30.0 million cwt, 2 percent below the 30.7 million cwt
lost last year but 5 percent above the losses of two years ago.


Eastern States stored 3.18 million cwt of potatoes on May 1, 1996, up 5 percent
from last year but 16 percent below 1994.  Maine's stocks were even with last
year.  Pennsylvania and New York are virtually finished shipping for the season.


Central States held 12.3 million cwt of potato in storage on May 1, 1996.  This
is 6 percent below last year but 42 percent above 1994.  Wisconsin's stocks are
off 32 percent, Nebraska is off 29 percent, and North Dakota is down 4 percent.
Michigan's stocks are the same as last year while Minnesota is up 10 percent.


Western States potato stocks totaled 56.7 million cwt in six States, down 21
percent from last year and 8 percent below two years ago.  Idaho's stocks of
34.5 million cwt were down 13 percent from a year ago, making up 60 percent of
the Western total.  Washington's stocks of 11.5 million cwt and Oregon's stocks
of 3.0 million cwt, were off 32 and 57 percent, respectively.  Colorado's stocks
of 6.2 million cwt were 2 percent above last year.  Montana's stocks at the end
of their seed season were down 11 percent.  California's stocks were off 14
percent.


                  Reliability of May 1 Stocks Estimates


The "Root Mean Square Error" for the May 1 stocks estimate is 8.6 percent.  This
means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current estimate of 72.2 million cwt
will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 8.6 percent or
approximately 6.2 million cwt.  Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence
level) that the difference will not exceed 14.9 percent or 10.8 million cwt.

The 10-year (1986-95) record of differences between the May 1 stocks estimate
and the final estimates averaged 4.5 million cwt, ranging from 0.55 million cwt
to 11.5 million cwt.  During this 10-year period, the May 1 estimate has been
below the final estimate 8 out of 10 years.



             Fall Potato Stocks:  Preliminary and Final May Stocks,
                             United States, 1985-95
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
   Crop   :      Preliminary      :        % of         :         Final
   Year   :        Stocks         :        Final        :       Stocks 1/
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          :       1,000 Cwt               Percent               1,000 Cwt
          :
1985      :        63,380                   96.9                 65,380
1986      :        57,040                   95.4                 59,790
1987      :        71,640                  102.3                 70,030
1988      :        54,390                   91.6                 59,355
1989      :        50,125                   98.9                 50,675
1990      :        54,400                   86.3                 63,040
1991      :        70,020                  101.3                 69,110
1992      :        63,550                   84.7                 75,040
1993      :        68,060                   92.1                 73,860
1994      :        81,495                   93.1                 87,500
1995      :        72,210
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/  As reported in the September "Potato" annual report.


Note:  Stocks are defined as the quantity (whether sold or not) remaining in
       storage for all purposes and uses, including seed potatoes not yet moved
       and shrinkage, waste, and other losses that occur after the date of each
       report.  Sales of fall potatoes for all purposes for the past 5 years
       averaged 91.0 percent of the total fall production shrinkage, loss and
       home use account for the remaining 9.0 percent.  Most seed for use the
       following year is on hand but remains as part of stocks until planted.


The next "Potato Stocks" report will be released at 3 p.m. ET on
December 16, 1996.


The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination in
its programs on the basis of race, color, national origin, sex, religion, age,
disability, political beliefs, and marital or familial status.  Persons with
disabilities who require alternative means for communication of program
information (braille, large print, audiotape, etc.) should contact the USDA
Office of Communications at (202) 720-5881 (voice) or (202) 720-7808 (TDD).

To file a complaint, write the Secretary of Agriculture, USDA, Washington, D.C.,
20250, or call (202) 720-7327 (voice) or (202) 720-1127 (TDD).  USDA is an equal
employment opportunity employer.




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