U.S. Department of the Interior

U.S. Geological Survey

U.S. Department of the Interior

U.S. Geological Survey

Open-File Report 2009–1164 Open-File Report 2009–1164

Land-Cover Change in the East Central Texas Plains, 

1973–2000
Cover photograph. Plowed agricultural field near Bee and Live Oak counties, Texas (U.S. Geological Survey, 2006).
Land-Cover Change in the East Central 

Texas Plains, 1973–2000 

By Krista A. Karstensen

Open-File Report 2009–1164

U.S. Department of the Interior

U.S. Geological Survey
U.S. Department of the Interior

KEN SALAZAR, Secretary

U.S. Geological Survey

Suzette M. Kimball, Acting Director

U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, Virginia: 2009

Revised: 2011

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Suggested citation:

Karstensen, K.A., 2009, Land-cover change in the East Central Texas Plains, 1973–2000: U.S. Geological Survey OpenFile Report 2009–1164, 9 p.
iii

Contents

Project Background.......................................................................................................................................1

The East Central Texas Plains .....................................................................................................................1

Summary of Land-Use Change in the Ecoregion......................................................................................3

Overall Spatial Change ........................................................................................................................3

Normalized Annual Rates of Change.................................................................................................3

Land-Cover Composition and Net Change ......................................................................................3

Most Common Land-Cover Conversions ..........................................................................................3

Discussion.......................................................................................................................................................4

References Cited............................................................................................................................................5

Tables...............................................................................................................................................................7

Tables

 1. Percentage of the East Central Texas Plains that experienced spatial 

 change and associated error .....................................................................................................3

2. Raw estimates of percent change in the East Central Texas Plains 

 computed for each of the four time periods and associated error at an 

85-percentconfidence level ........................................................................................................4

3. Estimated area for each land-cover class in the East Central Texas 

 Plains between 1973 and 2000....................................................................................................8

4. Leading land-cover conversions in the East Central Texas Plains 

 during each of four time periods................................................................................................9

Figures

 1. Map showing the East Central Texas Plains............................................................................2

 2–4. Photographs showing—

 2. An example of grassland/shrubland seen in Bee and Live Oak 

 counties...................................................................................................................................4

 3. Cattle in a pasture, Caldwell County ..................................................................................5

 4. Ranchland in Goliad County ................................................................................................5
iv

Conversion Factors

Multiply By To obtain

Length

centimeter (cm) 0.3937 inch (in.)

kilometer (km) 0.6214 mile (mi)

Area

square kilometer (km2

) 247.1 acre

square kilometer (km2

) 0.3861 square mile (mi2)

Horizontal coordinate information is referenced to the North American Datum of 1983 (NAD 83).
Land-Cover Change in the East Central Texas Plains, 

1973–2000 

By Krista A. Karstensen

Project Background

The Geographic Analysis and Monitoring (GAM) 

Program of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Land Cover 

Trends project is focused on understanding the rates, trends, 

causes, and consequences of contemporary U.S. land-use 

and land-cover change. The objectives of the study are to: 

(1) develop a comprehensive methodology for using sampling 

and change analysis techniques and Landsat Multispectral 

Scanner (MSS) and Thematic Mapper (TM) data for measuring regional land-cover change across the United States, 

(2) characterize the types, rates and temporal variability of 

change for a 30-year period, (3) document regional driving 

forces and consequences of change, and (4) prepare a national 

synthesis of land-cover change (Loveland and others, 1999).

Using the 1999 Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) 

Level III ecoregions derived from Omernik (1987) as the 

geographic framework, geospatial data collected between 

1973 and 2000 were processed and analyzed to characterize 

ecosystem responses to land-use changes. The 27-year study 

period was divided into five temporal periods: 1973–1980, 

1980–1986, 1986–1992, 1992–2000, and 1973–2000. General land-cover classes such as water, developed, grassland/

shrubland, and agriculture for these periods were interpreted 

from Landsat MSS, TM, and Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus 

imagery to categorize land-cover change and evaluate using a 

modified Anderson Land-Use Land-Cover Classification System for image interpretation. The interpretation of these landcover classes complement the program objective of looking at 

land-use change with cover serving as a surrogate for land use. 

The land-cover change rates are estimated using a stratified, random sampling of 10-kilometer (km) by 10-km blocks 

allocated within each ecoregion. For each sample block, satellite images are used to interpret land-cover change for the five 

time periods previously mentioned. Additionally, historical 

aerial photographs from similar timeframes and other ancillary 

data such as census statistics and published literature are used. 

The sample block data are then incorporated into statistical 

analyses to generate an overall change matrix for the ecoregion. For example, the scalar statistics can show the spatial 

extent of change per cover type with time, as well as the landcover transformations from one land-cover type to another 

type occurring with time. 

Field data of the sample blocks include direct measurements of land cover, particularly ground-survey data collected 

for training and validation of image classifications (Loveland 

and others, 2002). The field experience allows for additional 

observations of the character and condition of the landscape, 

assistance in sample block interpretation, ground truthing of 

Landsat imagery, and helps determine the driving forces of 

change identified in an ecoregion. Management and maintenance of field data, beyond initial use for training and validation of image classifications, is important as improved methods for image classification are developed, and as present-day 

data become part of the historical legacy for which studies of 

land-cover change in the future will depend (Loveland and 

others, 2002). 

 The results illustrate that there is no single profile of 

land-cover change; instead, there is significant geographic 

variability that results from land uses within ecoregions continuously adapting to the resource potential created by various 

environmental, technological, and socioeconomic factors. 

The East Central Texas Plains 

The East Central Texas Plains ecoregion encompasses 

44,076 square kilometers (km2) across east central Texas 

(fig. 1). Just south of the Oklahoma border on the north, the 

ecoregion extends to just south of the San Antonio River. The 

ecoregion includes the confluences of the Sulphur, Trinity, 

Navasota, Brazos, Colorado, Guadalupe Rivers, their tributaries, Lakes Tawakoni and Fork, and Richland Chambers, Sommerville, and Cedar Creek Reservoirs. Located in the central 

part of the ecoregion, Bryan and College Station, Texas, are 

two of the larger cities and housed a census population of 152, 

415 in April 2000 which was an increase of 25.1 percent since 

1990 (U.S. Census Bureau, 2001). 

The topography is categorized by irregular plains with 

acidic soils along the parallel ridges and valleys, sandy and 

sandy loam soils on the uplands, and clay and clay loams 

occupy the low-lying areas (Griffith and others, 2004). 

Elevation increases gradually from southeast to northwest. 

Additionally, many areas in this ecoregion are underlain with 

clay pan which affects water movement and availability for 

plant growth (Griffith and others, 2004). The overall annual 
2 Land-Cover Change in the East Central Texas Plains, 1973—2000

99° 98° 97° 96° 95°

33°

32°

31°

30°

29°

28°

South Central Plains

Central

Oklahoma/

Texas

Plains

Edwards

Plateau

Texas

Blackland

Prairies

Southern 

Texas

Plains

Western Gulf

Coastal Plain

Texas

Blackland

Prairies

Gulf of Mexico

0 25 50 75 100 KILOMETERS

Base from Environmental Systems Research Institute digital data, 1983

Albers Projection

North American Datum of 1983 (NAD 83)

Sample block (10 x 10 kilometers)

Ecoregion boundary

Land-use/land-cover classes

EXPLANATION

Water

Developed

Mechanically disturbed

Mining

Barren

Forest

Grassland/shrubland

Agriculture

Wetland

Nonmechanically disturbed

Land use from National Land Cover Data, 2001

Index map

East Central Texas 

Plains Ecoregion

Texas

0 25 50 MILES

Figure 1. The East Central Texas Plains.
Summary of Land-Use Change in the Ecoregion 3

precipitation in this ecoregion is approximately 102 centimeters (cm) (Texas Parks and Wildlife Department, 2008). 

More specifically, the annual precipitation ranges from 102 to 

122 cm in the part of the ecoregion north of the Cedar Creek 

Reservoir, and ranges from 71 to 102 cm south of the Trinity 

River. 

Historically, fire and burning in the northern part of 

the ecoregion played an essential role in maintaining grassy 

openings. In the absence of fire, woody invasions have taken 

place (Griffith and others, 2004). Mixed native or introduced 

grasses and forbs on grassland sites or mixed herbaceous 

communities have resulted from the recent clearing of woody 

vegetation (Texas Parks and Wildlife Department, 2008). The 

deciduous forest in the East Central Texas Plains is made up 

of mostly post oak and blackjack oak. The post oak forests are 

particularly prevalent on the sandy soils of the ecoregion and 

primarily exist north of College Station (Yantis, 1984; Amy 

Hays, Texas A&M University, oral commun., 2009). The south 

central part of the ecoregion bordering the Colorado River has 

the westernmost tract of southern pine in the United States; 

cross timbers and blackland prairie also are common in the 

southern part of the ecoregion (Griffith and others, 2004; Amy 

Hays, Texas A&M University, oral commun., 2009).

Summary of Land-Use Change in the 

Ecoregion

Overall Spatial Change

The footprint of change in the ecoregion, the percentage of area that changed at least one time from 1973–2000, 

was 12.1 percent (+/- 1.8 percent); (table 1). An estimated 

10.4 percent (+/- 1.5 percent) of the ecoregion changed only 

one time, whereas 1.5 percent (+/- 0.3 percent) and 0.2 percent 

Table 1. Percentage of the East Central Texas Plains that experienced spatial change and associated error.

[+, plus; -, minus; %, percent]

Number of changes Percent of ecoregion

Margin of error

(+/- %)

Lower bound

(%)

Upper bound

(%)

Standard error 

(%)

Relative error

(%)

1 10.4 1.5 8.9 12 1.1 10.1

2 1.5 .3 1.2 1.8 .2 15.2

3 .2 .1 .1 .2 0 24.3

4 0 0 0 0 0 39.5

Overall spatial change 12.1 1.8 10.3 13.9 1.2 10.2

(+/- 0.1 percent) changed two and three times, respectively, 

during the 30-year study period. 

Normalized Annual Rates of Change

When normalized to account for varying time period 

lengths, annual rates of change steadily increased during the 

first three time intervals reaching 0.7 percent per year from 

1986 to 1992. These rates declined to 0.4 percent per year 

from 1992 to 2000 (table 2).

Land-Cover Composition and Net Change 

Despite an overall net decrease of 2.7 percent, at the end 

of the study period agricultural land covered 46.3 percent 

(+/- 4.3 percent) of the ecoregion in 2000 (table 3, at the back 

of the report). Forested land was the second leading landcover class at 30.5 percent (+/- 3.7 percent) despite an overall 

net decrease of 1.8 percent since 1973. Grassland/shrubland 

accounted for 14.4 percent (+/- 3.0 percent) of the ecoregion in 

2000 (fig. 2). Of all the land-cover classes in the East Central 

Texas Plains, the grassland/shrubland, developed, and water 

classes had the highest overall net increases at 1.3 percent.

Most Common Land-Cover Conversions

Between 1973 and 2000, the five most common landcover conversions were: (1) agriculture to grassland/shrubland, (2) forest to agriculture, (3) grassland/shrubland to forest, (4) grassland/shrubland to agriculture, and (5) agriculture 

to forest (table 4, at the back of the report). Whereas conversions to developed land did not place in the top five leading 

land-cover conversions, the socioeconomic impacts that are 

associated with the net increase of 1.3 percent of developed 

area during the study period is important to note.
4 Land-Cover Change in the East Central Texas Plains, 1973—2000

Discussion

The East Central Texas Plains are a mosaic of improved 

pasture, rangeland, and cropland (Griffith and others, 2004). 

Whereas the overall amount of agricultural land declined during the study period, it still accounts for the largest amount 

of land cover in the ecoregion. Since 1970, approximately 

1,000 new farms and ranches have been established in Texas 

each year, even though the total area in farms and ranches has 

declined by almost 3 million acres during that time; a statewide trend that is apparent in the East Central Texas Plains 

(U.S. Department of Agriculture National Agricultural Statistics Service, 2009).

The ecoregion historically has been a mix of post oak/

blackjack oak forest and savannah on sandy soils interspersed with mid and tall grass prairie on the heavier soil sites 

(C. Kowaleski, Texas Parks and Wildlife, written commun., 

2009). Although much of this land originally was farmed, 

the sandier sites quickly lost their fertility (C. Kowaleski, 

Texas Parks and Wildlife, written commun., 2009). In the 

early 1970s, abandoned farmland promoted cattle densities 

to increase gradually (Yantis, 1984). During this decade, the 

average land ownership size increased as old farms were consolidated into ranches (Yantis, 1984). In 1974, the central part 

of the ecoregion had approximately 18 people, 104 cattle, and 

11 hogs per square mile (Yantis, 1984). Starting in the 1980s, 

Cooperative Extension promoted the idea of converting native 

grasses to coastal bermuda grass tame pastures, which when 

limed and fertilized allowed increased stocking rates (1 cow/

acre) than can be achieved on native ranges (fig. 3) (C. Kowaleski, Texas Parks and Wildlife, written commun., 2009). 

Although the land use in the 1980s was similar to that of the 

1970s, continued increase in human population was bringing 

more “weekend ranchers” to the area, and the average size 

of landholdings was decreasing as land use was intensifying 

(Yantis, 1984).

The impact of population on land use in the latter part 

of the study period is correlated to changes in ownership 

and size (Wilkins and others, 2003). From 1992–2001, the 

most notable land-use trend was the conversion of native 

rangelands and croplands to nonnative “improved pastures” 

(Wilkins and others, 2003). Unlike the consolidation that 

occurred in the early 1970s, fragmentation of rural acreage became dominant in the 1990s as large properties were 

divided into smaller parcels (Wilkins and others, 2003). 

This may help to describe the leading land-cover change in 

Figure 2. An example of grassland/shrubland seen in Bee and 

Live Oak counties (U.S. Geological Survey, 2006).

Table 2. Raw estimates of percent change in the East Central Texas Plains computed for each of the four time periods and associated 

error at an 85-percent confidence level.

[%, percent; +, plus; -, minus; km2, square kilometers]

Period Total change

(% of ecoregion)

Margin of error

(+/- %)

Lower bound

(%)

Upper bound

(%)

Standard error

(%)

Relative error

(%)

Average rate

(% per year)

1973–1980 2.5 0.5 2.0 2.9 0.3 12.4 0.4

1980–1986 3.5 .8 2.8 4.3 .5 14.8 .6

1986–1992 4.5 1.4 3.1 5.9 1.0 21.2 .7

1992–2000 3.4 .5 2.9 3.9 .3 10.1 .4

Period Total change

(km2

 of ecoregion)

Margin of error

(+/- km2)

Lower bound

(km2)

Upper bound

(km2)

Standard error

(km2)

Relative error

(%)

Average rate

(km2 per year)

1973–1980 1,100 200 900 1,300 136 12.4 157

1980–1986 1,558 338 1,219 1,896 231 14.8 260

1986–1992 1,977 615 1,362 2,592 419 21.2 329

1992–2000 1,487 219 1,267 1,706 149 10.1 186
References Cited 5

Figure 3. Cattle in a pasture, Caldwell County (U.S. Geological 

Survey, 2006).

this ecoregion—agriculture to grassland/shrubland. As the 

land becomes fragmented, the properties become too small 

for traditional farming and ranching purposes, so they no 

longer contribute as much to rural economies (Wilkins and 

others, 2003); therefore, although the land use may remain, in 

essence, agricultural, the decrease in productivity may spectrally reflect grassland/shrubland (fig. 4). 

Figure 4. Ranchland in Goliad County (U.S. Geological Survey, 

2006).

Moreover, land in the ecoregion has become increasingly 

valuable with the expanding population of the nearby metropolitan areas. In that sense, there is a trend in land moving 

from high-intensity (crop production) to low intensity (rangeland). This trend began around 1994 and as such, the land has 

become more marketable as it moves toward low intensity 

land use (Amy Hays, Texas A&M University, oral commun., 

2009). It is important to make the clarification that these lands 

are not considered abandoned agriculture, the owners simply 

find more economic value in holding the land than cropping 

it (Amy Hays, Texas A&M University, oral commun., 2009). 

Additionally, the switch from high intensity to low intensity, 

or tame pasture, also has allowed many of the former savannah areas to become heavily overgrown with a yaupon holly 

understory (C. Kowaleski, Texas Parks and Wildlife, written 

commun., 2009).

References Cited

Griffith, G.E., Bryce, S.A., Omernik, J.M., Comstock, J.A., 

Rogers, A.C., Harrison, B., Hatch, S.L., and Bezanson, D., 

2004, Ecoregions of Texas: Reston, Virginia, United States 

Geological Survey: accessed on September 9, 2008, at URL 

ftp://ftp.epa.gov/wed/ecoregions/tx/tx_front.pdf.

Loveland, T.R., Sohl, T., Sayler, K., Gallant, A., Dwyer, J., 

Vogelmann, J., Zylstra, G., Wade, T., Edmonds, C., Chaloud, D., and Jones, B, 1999, Land cover trends: rates, 

causes, and consequences of late-twentieth century U.S. 

land cover change: EPA 600/R-99/105, p. 1–52.

Loveland, T.R., Sohl, T.L., Stehman, S.V., Gallant, A.L., Sayler, K.L., and Napton, D.E., 2002, A strategy for estimating 

the rates of recent United States land-cover changes: Photogrammetric Engineering and Remote Sensing, v. 68, no. 10, 

p. 1,091–1,099.

Omernik, J.M., 1987, Ecoregions of the conterminous United 

States: Annals of the Association of American Geographers, 

v. 77, no. 1, p. 118–125.

Texas Parks and Wildlife Department, 2008, The vegetation types of Texas: accessed September 25, 2008, at URL 

http://www.tpwd.state.tx.us/publications/pwdpubs/pwd_bn_

w7000_0120/grassland/.

U.S. Census Bureau, 2001, Ranking tables for metropolitan 

areas: 1990 and 2000: accessed April 1, 2009, at URL 

http://www.census.gov/population/www/cen2000/briefs/phct3/tables/tab03.txt.

U.S. Department of Agriculture, National Agricultural Statistics Service, 2009, Texas statistics: Washington, D.C., U.S. 

Department of Agriculture, accessed on April 1, 2009, at 

URL http://www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/Texas/.

U.S. Geological Survey, 2001, Multi-Resolution Land Characteristics Consortium: National Land Cover Database 

(NLCD 2001) Multi-zone Download Site accessed on June 

4, 2009, at URL http://www.mrlc.gov/nlcd_multizone_map.

phP.
6 Land-Cover Change in the East Central Texas Plains, 1973—2000

Wilkins, N., Hays, A., Kubenka, D., Steinbach, D., Grant, 

W., Gonzalez, E., Kjelland, M., and Shackelford, J., 2003, 

Texas Rural Lands: Trends and Conservation Implications 

for the 21st Century: The Texas A&M University System in 

partnership with American Farmland Trust, 26 p.

Yantis, J.H., 1984, The Lexington-Marquez Wildlife Unit: 

Texas Parks and Wildlife, Wildlife Division, F.A. Series 

No. 23, 27 p.
Tables 

7

Tables
8 Land-Cover Change in the East Central Texas Plains, 1973—2000 Table 3. Estimated area for each land-cover class in the East Central Texas Plains between 1973 and 2000. [%, percent; +, plus; -, minus; km2, square kilometers] Water Developed Mechanically disturbed Mining Barren Forest Grass/Shrub Agriculture Wetlands Nonmechanically disturbed % +/- % +/- % +/- % +/- % +/- % +/- % +/- % +/- % +/- % +/- 1973 2.6 1.3 1.8 0.5 0 0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 32.3 4.0 13.0 3.0 49.0 4.5 1.0 0.3 0 0 1980 2.6 1.3 2.0 .6 .1 0 .3 .2 .1 .1 31.9 3.9 13.4 3.0 48.6 4.4 1.0 .3 0 0 1986 3.1 1.4 2.3 .7 .1 .1 .4 .2 .1 .1 31.6 3.8 13.5 2.9 48.0 4.3 1.0 .3 0 0 1992 4.0 1.7 2.8 .8 .1 0 .4 .2 .1 .1 30.9 3.8 14.0 2.9 46.8 4.3 1.1 .3 0 0 2000 4.0 1.7 3.2 .9 .2 .2 .4 .2 .1 .1 30.5 3.7 14.4 3.0 46.3 4.3 1.1 .3 0 0 Net change 1.3 1.3 1.3 .5 .2 .2 .2 .1 0 0 -1.8 1.0 1.3 .8 -2.7 1.4 .1 .1 0 0 Gross change 1.6 1.3 1.3 .5 .6 .3 .3 .2 0 0 3.6 .8 3.7 .6 5.5 1.0 .2 .1 0 0

Water Developed Mechanically disturbed Mining Barren Forest Grass/Shrub Agriculture Wetlands Nonmechanically disturbed

km2 +/- km2 +/- km2 +/- km2 +/- km2 +/- km2 +/- km2 +/- km2 +/- km2 +/- km2 +/-

1973 1,154 560 812 240 3 4 92 56 29 30 14,225 1,769 5,735 1,331 21,590 1,972 434 147 0 01980 1,156 559 903 270 33 21 118 79 30 30 14,059 1,700 5,907 1,324 21,434 1,929 436 147 0 01986 1,350 600 1,020 303 62 47 155 106 32 30 13,910 1,662 5,934 1,294 21,174 1,909 437 144 0 01992 1,756 758 1,232 370 28 19 159 108 31 30 13,640 1,671 6,150 1,291 20,613 1,907 465 145 0 02000 1,747 751 1,393 418 98 72 161 101 31 30 13,444 1,632 6,330 1,310 20,403 1,898 470 146 0 0

Net change 593 564 581 230 94 72 69 48 1 2 -782 432 595 357 -1,187 604 36 30 0 0

Gross change 685 563 581 230 268 119 119 73 6 5 1,603 341 1,642 279 2,406 461 69 42 0 0
Tables 9

Table 4. Leading land-cover conversions in the East Central Texas Plains during each of four time periods.

[km2, square kilometers; +, plus; -, minus; not applicable]

Period From class To class

Area 

changed

(km2)

Margin of 

error

(+/- km2)

Standard 

error

(km2)

Percent of 

ecoregion

Percent of all 

changes

1973–1980 Agriculture Grassland/shrubland 334 98 67 0.8 30.3

Forest Agriculture 208 85 58 .5 18.9

Grassland/shrubland Forest 102 48 32 .2 9.3

Grassland/shrubland Agriculture 91 37 25 .2 8.3

Agriculture Forest 74 37 25 .2 6.7

Other Other 291 n/a n/a .7 26.5

1,100 2.5 100

1980–1986 Agriculture Grassland/shrubland 369 116 79 .8 23.7

Forest Agriculture 197 48 33 .4 12.7

Grassland/shrubland Forest 189 69 47 .4 12.1

Grassland/shrubland Agriculture 139 55 38 .3 9.0

Agriculture Forest 114 54 36 .3 7.3

Other Other 549 n/a n/a 1.2 35.3

1,558 3.5 100

1986–1992 Agriculture Grassland/shrubland 563 154 105 1.3 28.5

Forest Water 200 202 138 .5 10.1

Grassland/shrubland Agriculture 175 81 55 .4 8.9

Agriculture Water 149 199 135 .3 7.5

Grassland/shrubland Forest 149 51 35 .3 7.5

Other Other 741 n/a n/a 1.7 37.5

1,977 4.5 100

1992–2000 Agriculture Grassland/shrubland 430 153 104 1.0 28.9

Forest Agriculture 197 73 50 .4 13.3

Grassland/shrubland Forest 147 38 26 .3 9.9

Grassland/shrubland Agriculture 139 52 35 .3 9.4

Forest Grassland/shrubland 78 37 25 .2 5.3

Other Other 496 n/a n/a 1.1 33.3

1,487 3.4 100

Overall

1973–2000 Agriculture Grassland/shrubland 1,695 338 230 3.8 27.7

Forest Agriculture 746 179 122 1.7 12.2

Grassland/shrubland Forest 587 163 111 1.3 9.6

Grassland/shrubland Agriculture 545 177 121 1.2 8.9

Agriculture Forest 326 123 84 .7 5.3

Other Other 2,222 n/a n/a 5.0 36.3

6,121 13.9 100
10 Land-Cover Change in the East Central Texas Plains, 1973—2000

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Rolla Publishing Service Center

For more information concerning this publication, contact:

Director

U.S. Geological Survey

Mid-Continent Geographic Science Center

1400 Independence Road

Rolla, MO 65401

(573) 308–3550

Or visit the Mid-Continent Geographic Science Center website at: 

http://mcgsc.usgs.gov/ 
Tables 11
Karstensen—Land-Cover Change in the East Central Texas Plains, 1973–2000—Open-File Report 2009–1164