HDR1012000110081223960830Potato Stocks

Released December 16, 1996, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service
(NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture.  For
information on "Potato Stocks" call Arvin Budge at (202) 720-4285, office
hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET.  For assistance with general agricultural
statistics, information about NASS, its products or services, contact the
Agricultural Statistics Hotline at 1-800-727-9540 or E-mail:
NASS@NASS.USDA.GOV.


Potato Stocks Up 14 Percent, Fall Production Gains 12 Percent

Production of fall potatoes is estimated at a record high 452 million cwt in
1996, up 12 percent from a year ago and 6 percent above comparable 1994
totals.  December 1 stocks, at 292 million cwt in the 15 storage States,
jumped 14 percent from last year and 7 percent above 1994 on a comparable
basis. Disappearance this year was up 10 percent, including a 12 percent gain
in processor usage.


Pot 1-2 (12-96)

         Fall Potatoes:  Production and Stocks, 15 Major States, 1987-96
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
   Crop  :          :         :         :         :         :         :
   Year  :Production:  Dec 1  :  Jan 1  :  Feb 1  :  Mar 1  :  Apr 1  :  May 1
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
         :                              1,000 Cwt
         :
1987     : 335,607    225,890   196,760   167,325   138,800   105,905   70,030
1988     : 305,623    206,420   177,750   151,050   124,485    92,585   59,355
1989     : 316,097    202,050   173,550   144,290   116,600    84,320   50,675
1990     : 344,200    225,500   194,460   162,850   134,470   101,150   63,040
1991     : 363,541    242,070   211,005   178,515   145,820   108,865   69,110
1992     : 368,516    246,820   215,990   184,560   152,795   115,785   75,040
1993     : 375,004    249,710   217,800   186,090   154,135   115,970   73,860
1994     : 408,139    272,290   237,960   201,870   168,050   128,360   87,500
1995     : 392,942    256,310   223,150   188,960   155,720   116,255   76,170
1996     : 441,297    291,650
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------





        Potatoes:  Quantity Used for Processing, Eight States, 1994-96 1/
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
     State and     :        :        :        :       :       :       :
     Crop Year     : Dec 1  : Jan 1  : Feb 1  : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 : Season
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                   :                         1,000 Cwt
                   :
ID & OR-Malheur Co :
  1994             : 26,620   34,230   42,330   49,890  57,990  66,680   90,300
  1995             : 27,310   35,040   43,260   51,530  59,060  66,690   89,250
  1996             : 31,060
                   :
ME 2/              :
  1994             :  1,505    1,840    2,265    2,540   2,985   3,330    4,770
  1995             :  1,335    1,690    2,180    2,520   3,025   3,465    5,225
  1996             :  1,400
                   :
WA & OR - Other    :
  1994             : 28,670   33,480   39,120   46,070  52,940  59,540   76,780
  1995             : 30,000   35,170   39,460   45,280  51,730  57,360   70,250
  1996             : 31,650
                   :
Oth Sts 3/         :
  1994             :  8,785   12,070   14,605   17,095  19,840  22,595   32,260
  1995             : 12,450   15,330   18,415   21,485  24,910  28,010   33,305
  1996             : 15,540
                   :
Total              :
  1994             : 65,580   81,620   98,320  115,595 133,755 152,145  204,110
  1995             : 71,095   87,230  103,315  120,815 138,725 155,525  198,030
  1996             : 79,650
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/  Total quantity received and used for processing regardless of the State in
    which the potatoes were produced.  Amount excludes quantities used for
    potato chips in ME, MI, MN, ND, and WI.
2/  Includes Maine grown potatoes only.
3/  MI, MN, ND, and WI.

          Fall Potatoes:  Production and Stocks on December 1, 1995-96
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
               :          Crop of 1995          :         Crop of 1996
               :----------------------------------------------------------------
     State     :          :  Stocks  :    %     :          :  Stocks  :    %
               :   Prod   :  Dec 1,  :    of    :   Prod   :  Dec 1,  :   of
               :          :   1995   :   Prod   :          :   1996   :  Prod
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
               : ---- 1,000 Cwt ---      Pct      ---- 1,000 Cwt ---      Pct
               :
CA             :   5,330      4,000       75        4,600      3,600      78
CO             :  23,808     18,200       76       28,786     22,800      79
ID             : 132,657     96,000       72      139,960     99,000      71
ME             :  17,160     13,800       80       21,175     16,900      80
MI             :  16,350      9,600       59       13,800      8,000      58
MN             :  20,790     13,500       65       24,600     16,500      67
MT             :   2,940      2,800       95        3,213      3,050      95
NE             :   3,680      2,600       71        4,375      3,110      71
NY             :   7,695      3,400       44        7,980      3,700      46
ND             :  25,410     17,000       67       28,820     20,000      69
OH             :   1,404        310       22        1,275        290      23
OR             :  24,788     17,200       69       31,925     25,000      78
PA             :   4,080      2,400       59        4,208      2,800      67
WA             :  80,850     39,500       49       94,990     48,000      51
WI             :  26,000     16,000       62       31,590     18,900      60
               :
Total 15 State : 392,942    256,310       65      441,297    291,650      66
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------






           Fall Potatoes:  Stocks by Type as Percent of Total Stocks,
                      11 Major States, December 1, 1995-96
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
               :                          Potato Types
               :----------------------------------------------------------------
               :        Reds         :       Whites        :      Russets
     State     :----------------------------------------------------------------
               :   1995   :   1996   :   1995   :   1996   :   1995   :  1996
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
               :                            Percent
               :
CO             :     6          6                               94        94
ID             :                          10         10         90        90
ME             :     3          3         69         61         28        36
MI             :     2          3         78         78         20        19
MN             :    14         13         16         17         70        70
NY             :     5          5         93         93          2         2
ND             :    16         18         36         35         48        47
OR             :     1          1          3          2         96        97
PA             :     3          3         97         97
WA             :     2          2          5          6         93        92
WI             :     3          3         27         17         70        80
               :
11 State Avg   :     3          4         19         17         78        79
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

          Fall Potatoes:  Area Planted and Harvested by State, 1994-96
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              :          Area Planted          :         Area Harvested
     State    :-----------------------------------------------------------------
              :   1994   :   1995   :   1996   :   1994   :   1995   :   1996
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              :                           1,000 Acres
              :
CA            :    14.0       13.0       11.5       14.0       13.0       11.5
CO            :    74.0       77.0       78.0       73.7       76.8       77.8
ID            :   410.0      400.0      410.0      408.0      398.0      408.0
  10 SW Co    :    27.0       27.0       28.0       27.0       27.0       28.0
  Other ID    :   383.0      373.0      382.0      381.0      371.0      380.0
IN            :     4.4        5.0        5.7        4.1        4.6        5.2
ME            :    78.0       78.0       78.0       75.0       78.0       77.0
MA            :     3.1        3.3        2.7        3.1        3.3        2.6
MI 1/         :    54.0       55.0       52.0       52.0       54.5       46.0
MN 1/         :    81.7       83.0       85.0       74.6       77.0       82.0
MT            :    10.0        9.8       10.4       10.0        9.8       10.2
NE            :    11.3       12.0       12.7       11.1       11.5       12.5
NV            :     8.0        7.6        8.0        8.0        7.6        7.9
NM            :     6.3        6.3        6.7        6.0        6.3        6.4
NY 2/         :    29.1       29.0       29.0       28.6       28.5       28.5
  Long Is     :     6.1                              6.1
  Upstate     :    23.0                             22.5
ND            :   133.0      125.0      134.0      120.0      121.0      131.0
OH            :     5.6        5.5        5.3        5.5        5.4        5.1
OR            :    56.4       54.0       65.0       55.8       53.2       64.0
  Malheur     :    11.9       13.0       13.6       11.8       12.8       13.3
  Other OR    :    44.5       41.0       51.4       44.0       40.4       50.7
PA            :    19.0       18.0       17.0       18.0       17.0       16.5
RI            :     1.1         .9         .8        1.1         .9         .8
SD            :     6.0        6.0        6.0        5.5        5.2        5.7
UT            :     6.1        5.2        4.3        6.0        5.1        4.2
WA            :   152.0      147.0      163.0      152.0      147.0      161.0
WI            :    73.0       82.0       83.0       71.5       80.0       81.0
WY            :     1.7        1.5         .9        1.7        1.5         .8
              :
Total         : 1,237.8    1,224.1    1,269.0    1,205.3    1,205.2    1,245.7
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/  Summer Potato estimates included with fall in 1994 for comparative purposes.
2/  Long Island and Upstate breakout discontinued in 1995.

             Fall Potatoes:  Yield and Production by State, 1994-96
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              :             Yield              :           Production
     State    :-----------------------------------------------------------------
              :   1994   :   1995   :   1996   :   1994   :   1995   :   1996
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              :   ---------- Cwt ----------      --------- 1,000 Cwt ---------
              :
CA            :   400        410        400        5,600      5,330      4,600
CO            :   350        310        370       25,795     23,808     28,786
ID            :   340        333        343      138,801    132,657    139,960
  10 SW Co    :   470        420        425       12,690     11,340     11,900
  Other ID    :   331        327        337      126,111    121,317    128,060
IN            :   280        260        250        1,148      1,196      1,300
ME            :   245        220        275       18,375     17,160     21,175
MA            :   240        260        260          744        858        676
MI 1/         :   270        300        300       14,040     16,350     13,800
MN 1/         :   269        270        300       20,035     20,790     24,600
MT            :   320        300        315        3,200      2,940      3,213
NE            :   360        320        350        3,996      3,680      4,375
NV            :   345        365        390        2,760      2,774      3,081
NM            :   500        380        400        3,000      2,394      2,560
NY 2/         :   273        270        280        7,805      7,695      7,980
  Long Is     :   265                              1,617
  Upstate     :   275                              6,188
ND            :   235        210        220       28,200     25,410     28,820
OH            :   245        260        250        1,348      1,404      1,275
OR            :   493        466        499       27,514     24,788     31,925
  Malheur     :   430        390        380        5,074      4,992      5,054
  Other OR    :   510        490        530       22,440     19,796     26,871
PA            :   210        240        255        3,780      4,080      4,208
RI            :   225        270        265          248        243        212
SD            :   280        190        280        1,540        988      1,596
UT            :   265        240        280        1,590      1,224      1,176
WA            :   585        550        590       88,920     80,850     94,990
WI            :   360        325        390       25,740     26,000     31,590
WY            :   280        260        280          476        390        224
              :
Total         :   352        334        363      424,655    403,009    452,122
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/  Summer Potato estimates included with fall in 1994 for comparative purposes.
2/  Long Island and Upstate breakout discontinued in 1995.

                       1996 Potato Objective Yield Survey

The National Agricultural Statistics Service conducted potato objective yield
surveys in the 7 major fall producing States in 1996.  These 7 States account
for 83 percent of the 1996 fall potato production.  Sample plots were located in
potato fields that were selected on a random basis using a scientifically
designed sampling procedure.  Field workers recorded counts and measurements
from these fields just prior to and immediately after harvest.

Sample data from the objective yield surveys presented in the following tables
are not Agricultural Statistics Board official estimates.  They are provided
only to show current information about the crop and trends in potato production
practices.



     Potatoes:  Harvest Loss of Potatoes by Type, 7 Major States, 1995-96 1/
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    State   :                :                :                :
     and    :      Reds      :     Whites     :    Russets     :   All Types
    Year    :                :                :                :
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
            :                           Cwt per Acre
            :
ID    1995  :                        21               28               28
      1996  :                        16               31               28
            :
ME    1995  :       10               14               22               16
      1996  :        7               15               19               16
            :
MN    1995  :        9               16               20               16
      1996  :       11                                21               22
            :
ND    1995  :       16               19               27               19
      1996  :       26               26               30               27
            :
OR    1995  :        8               23               21               21
      1996  :                        43               25               29
            :
WA    1995  :                        17               19               19
      1996  :                        27               30               30
            :
WI    1995  :                        15               16               16
      1996  :        8               24               22               20
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/  Potatoes left in the field at time of harvest.  Based on counts in potato
    fields selected for post-harvest samples.

         Potatoes:  Average Number of Hills per Acre by Type, 1995-96 1/
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           :         Reds         :        Whites        :       Russets
   State   :--------------------------------------------------------------------
    and    :  Number   : Avg No.  :  Number   : Avg No.  :  Number   : Avg No.
    Year   :    of     :  Hills   :    of     :  Hills   :    of     :  Hills
           :  Samples  : per Acre :  Samples  : per Acre :  Samples  : per Acre
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           :
ID    1995 :                            27       13,573       243       12,377
      1996 :                            36       13,032       235       12,224
           :
ME    1995 :     8        13,252       105       14,454        44       10,368
      1996 :     9        14,923       105       13,547        50        9,739
           :
MN    1995 :    37        11,139        37       10,707        45       13,144
      1996 :    33        11,480        11       10,859        59       13,170
           :
ND    1995 :    37        10,234       100       10,363        80       11,184
      1996 :    29         7,690        71        9,981        62       11,368
           :
OR    1995 :     2        16,739        58       13,335        90       14,313
      1996 :     2        11,636        53       13,474       108       14,557
           :
WA    1995 :     3        15,811        21       14,101       121       14,465
      1996 :     4        12,147        24       13,809       119       14,119
           :
WI    1995 :    10        13,805        34       13,069        82       12,520
      1996 :    14        13,684        31       13,372        76       12,435
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/  Based on row measurements and counts in potato field selected for objective
    yield samples.


                    Potato Stocks Up 14 Percent

The 15 major potato States held 292 million cwt of potatoes on December 1, 1996,
up 14 percent from last year and 7 percent above the previous record in 1994.
Storage accounted for 66 percent of 1996 fall production compared with
65 percent in 1995.  Stocks by type were 4 percent red, 17 percent white, and
79 percent russet.  There were more reds and russets, but fewer whites than a
year ago.

Disappearance in the 15 States from the start of harvest to December 1 was a
record high 150 million cwt of potatoes, up 10 percent from the same period in
1995.  Shrink and loss so far was estimated at 18.4 million cwt, up 6 percent
from the 17.4 million cwt lost in 1995 but 1 percent below the 18.6 million cwt
lost from the 1994 crop.

Processing is heavy, with 80.0 million cwt taken by fryers and dehydrators in
eight major States so far this season.  This is a gain of 12 percent over a year
ago and 21 percent above two years ago.

Eastern States stored 23.4 million cwt of potatoes on December 1, 1996, a gain
of 19 percent from last year and 18 percent above 1994.  Maine's stocks were up
22 percent and the highest since 1992, New York was up 9 percent, and
Pennsylvania's stocks were up 17 percent.

Central States accounted for 66.8 million cwt of potato stocks this December,  a
jump of 13 percent over last year and 15 percent above two years ago.
Michigan's and Ohio's stocks were below a year ago, but the other 4 Central
States were up sharply.  Minnesota gained 22 percent, Nebraska's stocks
increased 20 percent, while North Dakota and Wisconsin jumped 18 percent each.

Western States held 201 million cwt of potatoes in storage on December 1, 1996,
up 13 percent from a year ago and 4 percent above two years ago.  Oregon's
storage jumped 45 percent above a year ago.  Colorado was up 25 percent and
Washington was up 22 percent.  Idaho's stocks increased 3 percent from last year
but were below those of two years ago.  Stocks in Montana's seed area were up
9 percent, but California's storage dropped 10 percent.
                Fall Potato Production Up 12 Percent

Production of fall potatoes in 1996 is estimated at a record high 452 million
cwt, 12 percent above last year and 6 percent above two years ago.  This is the
fifth record production of potatoes in the United States in the last six years.
The December 1 forecast is less than 1 percent above the November forecast.  A
substantial increase in final yield data in Washington more than offset downward
adjustments in other States.  Area harvested, at 1.25 million acres, is up
3 percent from the last two years.  The average yield is estimated at 363 cwt
per acre, a jump of 29 cwt from last year and 11 cwt above two years ago.
Planting started late but good weather in June turned the season into one of the
best ever in most States.  Total U.S. potato production from all four seasons
was a record high 496 million cwt in 1996, 12 percent above a year earlier and
6 percent above the previous record in 1994.

Five Eastern States produced 34.3 million cwt of fall potatoes in 1996, up
14 percent from last year and 11 percent above two years ago.  Potatoes were
harvested from 125,400 acres, a decline of 2 percent from last year.  The
average yield of 273 cwt per acre increased 38 cwt from last year but slipped a
little from the November forecast.  Maine growers produced a 21.2 million-cwt
crop, 23 percent better than last year based on a 55 cwt per acre gain in
yields.  New York production increased 4 percent and Pennsylvania gained 3
percent over a year ago.  Massachusetts and Rhode Island potato crops were
smaller than last year.

Eight Central States' production is forecast at 107.4 million cwt this year, up
12 percent from the last two years.  Harvested area is estimated at
368,500 acres, a gain of 3 percent from last year.  The average yield of 291 cwt
per acre is 24 cwt above last year.  The season produced record high crops in
Minnesota and Wisconsin, up 18 and 22 percent from last year.  North Dakota's
production increased 13 percent but was not record large.  Michigan and Ohio
were hurt by too much rain throughout the season even though higher ground
produced bumper crops.  Larger crops were grown this year in Indiana, Nebraska,
and South Dakota than a year ago.

Ten Western States produced 311 million cwt in 1996, up 12 percent from the last
year and 4 percent above two years ago.  Acreage for harvest at 751,800 acres
was up 5 percent, while the average yield of 413 cwt per acre was up 27 cwt from
a year ago.  Idaho's production of 140 million cwt is 6 percent above last year
and slightly larger than the previous record high two years ago.  Some frost
damage on both ends of the season kept the crop from being even larger.
Production in Washington gained by late season reports of high yields.  This
year's production was 17 percent larger than last year and 7 percent above the
previous record high.  Oregon's production jumped 29 percent from last year and
was 16 percent larger than two years ago.  Ideal weather and growing conditions
in Colorado produced a record crop of potatoes, 21 percent higher than last
year.  Montana growers managed a record large crop, 9 percent above last year in
spite of fall frost damage.  California, Utah, and Wyoming produced smaller
potato crops than last year, by 14, 4, and 43 percent, respectively.  New
Mexico's crop was smaller than earlier expected but gained 7 percent on last
year.  Nevada's crop was 11 percent larger than a year ago.


     Reliability of December 1 Production and Stocks Estimates

The "Root Mean Square Error" for the December 1 stocks estimate is 2.6 percent.
This means that the chances are 2 out of 3 that the current estimate of
292 million cwt will not be above or below the final estimate by more than
2.6 percent or approximately 7.6 million cwt.  Chances are 9 out of
10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 4.5 percent
or approximately 13.1 million cwt.

Also shown is the 10-year (1986-95) record of the differences between the
December 1 production and stocks estimates and the final estimates. Using stocks
again as an example, changes between the December 1 estimate and the final
estimate during the 10 years have averaged 6.2 million cwt.  During the 10-year
period, the December 1 stocks  estimates have been below the final estimate each
year.  Production estimates have been below the final 8 years and above
2 years.






                 Reliability of December 1 Fall Potato Estimates
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
            :        Root Mean        :      Ten Year Record of Difference
            :      Square Error       :    Between Dec 1 and Final Estimate
            :-------------------------------------------------------------------
            :       :                 :                        :     Number
  Estimate  :       : 90% Confidence  :        Quantity        :    of Years
            :Percent:      Level      :-----------------------------------------
            :       :-----------------:       :        :       : Below : Above
            :       :Percent:  Quant  :  Avg  : Small  : Large : Final : Final
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
            :                  --------- Million Cwt ---------
            :
Stocks      :  2.6     4.5     13.12    6.20     .65     14.50    10       0
Production  :  1.5     2.6     11.76    5.50     .05     13.46     8       2
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

           Fall Potato Stocks:  Preliminary and Final December Stocks,
                             United States, 1986-96
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
   Crop   :      Preliminary      :        % of         :         Final
   Year   :        Stocks         :        Final        :       Stocks 1/
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          :       1,000 Cwt               Percent               1,000 Cwt
          :
1986      :        204,180                 97.5                  209,435
1987      :        223,720                 99.0                  225,890
1988      :        198,520                 96.2                  206,420
1989      :        201,400                 99.7                  202,050
1990      :        217,300                 96.4                  225,500
1991      :        240,660                 99.4                  242,070
1992      :        232,320                 94.1                  246,820
1993      :        240,370                 96.3                  249,710
1994      :        264,090                 97.0                  272,290
1995      :        252,030                 98.3                  256,310
1996      :        291,650
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/  As reported in the September "Potato" annual summary.


Note:  Stocks are defined as the quantity (whether sold or not) remaining in
       storage for all purposes and uses, including seed potatoes not yet moved
       and shrinkage, waste, and other losses that occur after the date of each
       report.  Sales of fall potatoes for all purposes for the past 5 years
       averaged 90.5 percent of the total fall production.  Shrinkage, loss and
       home use account for the remaining 9.5 percent.  Most seed for use the
       following year is on hand but remains as part of stocks until planted.



            Potatoes:  Production, Sold, Not Sold, and Kept for Seed,
                             United States, 1991-96
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          :                     Fall Potatoes                     : Amount Used
          :-------------------------------------------------------:  for Seed
   Crop   :             :         :   Sold   :         : Not Sold : All Seasons
   Year   : Production  :  Sold   : as % of  :Not Sold : as % of  :  Following
          :             :         :   Prod   :         :   Prod   :    year
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          :   ---- 1,000 Cwt ----   Percent   1,000 Cwt  Percent     1,000 Cwt
          :
1991      :   371,730     334,893     90.1     36,837       9.9       27,021
1992      :   379,525     341,209     89.9     38,316      10.1       28,275
1993      :   385,935     351,161     91.0     34,774       9.0       29,031
1994      :   419,645     378,333     90.2     41,312       9.8       29,348
1995      :   403,009     368,946     91.5     34,063       8.5       30,357
1996      :   452,122
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The next "Potato Stocks" report will be released at 3:00 p.m. ET on
January 13, 1997.


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HOTLINE at 1-800-727-9540, 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET, or e-mail:
NASS@NASS.USDA.GOV.

          USDA Announces Agricultural Outlook Forum  97
                    February 24 and 25, 1997
              Omni Shoreham Hotel, Washington, D.C.

An era of freer markets under the 1996 Farm Bill has begun. For an expert
assessment of the impact, attend the Outlook Forum.  Top speakers will discuss
the 1997 farm outlook, prospects to 2005, risk management, concentration issues,
market stability, world food security, marketing high-valued exports and more.
Plan now to attend.  For program and registration details, check Forum home
page, call (202) 720-3050 or dial (202) 219-0296 from your fax machine and
request document 66666.  Send e-mail to agforum@oce.usda.gov.

Get news from the Forum.  Can't attend? After the Forum, download speeches from
the Internet. Or, call 1-800-999-6779 to place an advance order for the printed
proceedings (YCON-97) or new long term projections to 2005 (WAOB-97-1).

  Ag Forum home page:  http://www.usda.gov/oce/waob/agforum.htm





                          Agricultural
                             Outlook
                            Forum  97