2009 U.S. DOE Hydrogen 

Program and Vehicle 

Technologies Program 

Annual Merit Review

May 19, 2009

Arlington, VA

Victor Diakov (NREL), 

Mark Ruth (NREL),

Mike Goldsby (SNL),

Tim Sa (SNL)

NREL/PR-6A1-45599

Macro-System Model 

(project #AN4)

This presentation does not contain any proprietary, confidential, or otherwise restricted information

NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC.
National Renewable Energy Laboratory 2 Innovation for Our Energy Future

Overview

Timeline

Start date: Feb 2005

Completion: Sept 2010

Percent complete: 65%

Budget

Total funding:

– 100% DOE funded

FY08 funding

– $300K NREL/SIO

– $340K Sandia NL

FY09 funding

– $525K NREL/SIO

– $370K Sandia NL

Barriers

Stove-piped/Siloed analytical capability 

(B) 

Inconsistent data, assumptions and 

guidelines (C)

Suite of Models and Tools (D)

Partners

•Sandia National Laboratories 

(computational development)

•NREL (H2A Production, well-to-wheel 

analysis validation, HyDRA)

•ANL (HDSAM, GREET, well-to-wheel 

analysis validation)

•Sentech (Documentation)

•Directed Technologies, Inc (HyPRO)
National Renewable Energy Laboratory 3 Innovation for Our Energy Future

Relevance: project objectives

Overall objectives

– Develop a macro-system model (MSM) aimed at

• Performing rapid cross-cutting analysis

– Utilizing and linking other models

– Improving consistency of technology representation (i.e., consistency between 

models)

• Supporting decisions regarding programmatic investments through 

analyses and sensitivity runs

• Supporting estimates of program outputs and outcomes

2008/2009 objectives

– Improve structure of the MSM and expand GUI capabilities

– Update versions of component models

– Expand stochastic analysis capability 

– Build interaction between MSM and spatial and temporal models
National Renewable Energy Laboratory 4 Innovation for Our Energy Future

Pathway assumptions are entered. 

Other assumptions are embedded 

in the models being linked but are 

changed in sensitivity runs

Key assumptions 

GREET

• Gasoline is RFG without 

oxygenate

• Current technologies use US 

average grid mix

• Advanced technologies use 

future grid mix with 85% of 

CO2 from coal plants 

sequestered

Production 

• Central Biomass

• Current – 46% conversion eff.

• Advanced – 48% conversion eff.

• Coal Gasification

• Current – 55% conversion eff.

• Advanced – 55% conversion eff. 

• Nuclear HTE

• Advanced – 83% conversion eff.

• Distributed SMR

• Current – 71% conversion efficiency

• Advanced – 74% conversion efficiency

• Electrolysis

• Current – 62.5% production efficiency

• Advanced – 75% production efficiency

Financial 

• 10% IRR

• 20 year plant life

• MACRS 

depreciation where 

appropriate

• 1.9% inflation

HDSAM

• Fueling station capacity 

factor = 0.7

• 76 miles from central 

production to city

• Liquefier efficiency 77%

Pathway Assumptions

• Full-deployment scenario

• Urban demand area

• 1,250,000 person city

• 50% H2 penetration

• 1500 kg/day stations

• Mid-size FCV –

• Current - 57 mi / GGE

• Advanced – 65 mi / GGE
National Renewable Energy Laboratory 5 Innovation for Our Energy Future

Relevance: supporting program goal setting 

The MSM is a tool for cross-cutting H2 production pathways analysis – both 

economics and emissions, which makes it instrumental in assessing 

technology potential for Posture Plan updates

(R090213E)
National Renewable Energy Laboratory 6 Innovation for Our Energy Future

Approach: MSM development Initial objectives

Proof of concept / 

Initial analysis

Validate use of 

models

Model-linking 

methodology

Type of 

information to 

transfer

Define implicit 

calculations

Experience

Extensible tool

Update 

documentation

Stochastic 

capability

Develop & 

validate 

extensible & 

robust structure

Develop GUI & 

web interface

Additional Capability

Validate use of 

models

Develop datatransfer 

capability

Revisit analysis 

issues and 

MSM 

requirements

Select 

additional 

models

Additional models

Analysis community 

interactions

Use MSM for 

analysis

Update 

models using 

the MSM

Inputs and pathway results

reviewed by industry Completed previously Application

Completed this year

Underway

Future Activities

Component 

model updates

Expand GUI

&

Develop run 

database

expand

ongoing effort

expanded

ongoing effort

ongoing effort
National Renewable Energy Laboratory 7 Innovation for Our Energy Future

Progress and Future Work: Overview

MSM

Risk analysis 

(@risk, DAKOTA) H2A

(H2 production)

HDSAM

(H2 delivery)

GREET

(wtw emissions)

HyARC

(H2 datatable)

HyPRO

(pathways 

progression)

Distributed Power

(combined heat, power 

and H2 production)

HyDRA

(spatial tool) H2W

(water model)

HyDS-ME

(production evolution 

with geo capabilities)

Completed previously

Completed this year

Underway

Future Activities
National Renewable Energy Laboratory 8 Innovation for Our Energy Future

Accomplishment: GUI and web interface

GUI available at

http://h2-msm.ca.sandia.gov/

Previously, the user only 

specified: 

• technology 

• timeframe 

• population 

• market penetration

Needed:

• more flexibility for users 
National Renewable Energy Laboratory 9 Innovation for Our Energy Future

Accomplishment: user interface upgrade

Detailed inputs 

capability added

• extra ~200 variable values 

can be specified for each 

MSM run

• grouping the variables into 

branched structures

• conditionally accessible 

groups and variables

• flexible structure 

http://h2-msm.ca.sandia.gov/

Grouped 

Conditional

Set of inputs

GUI and web 

interface

User

MSM 

back-end

NREL

SANDIA
National Renewable Energy Laboratory 10 Innovation for Our Energy Future

Accomplishment: GUI and web interface

http://h2-msm.ca.sandia.gov/
National Renewable Energy Laboratory 11 Innovation for Our Energy Future

Accomplishment: risk analysis capabilities

Assumptions: distributed SMR advanced 

technology case; fuel efficiency 28 mpg 

GV, 50-70 mi/kg_H2; year 2020 

Inputs: risk analysis expert opinions 

summarized in distribution functions for 

i) capital investment, 

ii) O&M, 

iii) capacity factor,

iv) production unit efficiency,

(Report NREL/MP-150-43250, May 2008)

v) gasoline, NG feed cost - historic data

vi) vehicle fuel efficiency (GPRA)

Analyzed tax on well-to-wheel (WTW) 

green-house gas (GHG) emissions

Compare the cost of fuel: 

hydrogen vs. gasoline

result distribution

result scatter plot

input distribution
National Renewable Energy Laboratory 12 Innovation for Our Energy Future

Accomplishment: WTW GHG tax risk analysis

SMR: GHG tax expected to 

have marginal effect on 

stimulating hydrogen use in 

transportation

Scatter graph points moved 

slightly away from the red line
National Renewable Energy Laboratory 13 Innovation for Our Energy Future

Progress: Milestone in MYRD&D Plan

The MSM is being used to complete the 2009 MYRD&D

Plan milestone on hydrogen pathways and scenarios.

Analyzing hydrogen 

production / delivery / 

distribution pathways 

using H2A 

Production, HDSAM, 

and GREET

Presenting pathway 

levelized cost and 

well-to-wheels energy 

use and emissions

Reviewing the 

methodology and 

primary assumptions 

used for the analyses

Developing presentation 

techniques that include all 

three results & breaking 

each down by system to 

identify primary drivers

Energy company staff and 

other experts are validating 

the process and identifying 

gaps and issues
National Renewable Energy Laboratory 14 Innovation for Our Energy Future

Approach: linking with HyDRA

HyDRA: http://rpm.nrel.gov

Goal: to bring spatial dimension into the MSM

Geographically

specific

inputs

MSM

Geographically

specific

outputs

HyDRA

database of

geo-specific info

HyDRA

graphic mapping 

interface

distributed electrolysis

region-specific inputs:

i) electricity price

ii) electricity grid mix
National Renewable Energy Laboratory 15 Innovation for Our Energy Future

Accomplishment: linking with HyDRA

input: 

electricity price, $/MWh

electricity grid mix by state

output: 

electrolysis H2 cost (< 5 $/kg)

GHG emissions < 550 g/mile
National Renewable Energy Laboratory 16 Innovation for Our Energy Future

Approach: linking with HyPRO

HyPRO: Directed Technologies, Inc.

Goal: to analyze technology/pathway evolution

Starting point: 

i) H2 demand curve projection;

ii) H2 production options and costs (H2A)

iii) H2 delivery options/costs (HDSAM)

Advantages for linking MSM with HyPRO: 

i) auto-updated links HyPRO ↔ H2A/HDSAM

ii) H2A/HDSAM/GREET inputs’ effect on HyPRO

MSM

H2A

Production

HDSAM HyPRO

GREET
National Renewable Energy Laboratory 17 Innovation for Our Energy Future

Progress & future work: linking MSM ↔ HyPRO

• Platform interaction

• Data exchange

MSM ruby matlab HyPRO

MSM

hypro

output files

(excel)

HyPRO

hypro

input file

excel/xml
National Renewable Energy Laboratory 18 Innovation for Our Energy Future

Collaborations

• Sandia National Laboratories (computational development)

– Andy Lutz (manager, matlab expertise)

– Mike Goldsby (MSM architecture)

– Tim Sa (web server, GUI)

• NREL 

– Darlene Steward, Mike Penev (H2A Production, distributed power)

– Johanna Levene, Chris Helms, Witt Sparks (HyDRA)

• ANL 

– Amgad Elgowainy, Michael Wang (HDSAM, GREET)

• Sentech 

– Matt Rahill (Documentation)

• Directed Technologies, Inc. 

– Brian James, Julie Perez, Andrew Spisak (HyPRO)

• Indiana University, Kelly School of Business

– Ion Diakov (@Risk)

• Energy Companies (MYRD&D Plan Milestone)

– Matt Watkins (Exxon-Mobil)

– Jonathan Weinert, Bhaskar Balasubramanian (Chevron)

– Ed Casey (ConocoPhillips)

– CJ Guo, Karel Kapoun (Shell)

• Alliance Technical Services (MYRD&D Plan Milestone)

– Melissa Laffen, Tom Timbario, Jr.
National Renewable Energy Laboratory 19 Innovation for Our Energy Future

Future work summary

Ongoing effort:

• update MSM to new versions of linked models

• support programmatic decisions through analyses

FY’09 goals:

• expand GUI capabilities and develop run-database 

(60% completed)

• link with HyDRA (50% completed), HyPRO (50%), 

H2A combined heat and power (start linking upon 

official model release)

Looking ahead:

• H2W (water model); HyDS-ME (transient and 

geospatial H2); PowerPark (details of underlying 

physical properties)
National Renewable Energy Laboratory 20 Innovation for Our Energy Future

Summary: MSM structure and future goals

Enhanced structure

• Give users MORE 

flexibility

– Significantly expand GUI 

capabilities

• Link to MORE models

– H2A, HDSAM, GREET +

HyPRO, HyDRA, H2Power, 

HyDS-ME, H2W, 

PowerPark, ...

• Expand to MORE 

computers

– Over the ‘net interactive

• Use MORE platforms

– xl + MATLAB

Broader objectives

• Wider cross-cutting analysis 

capabilities

– Expanded links to models

• Expanded range of 

problems to analyze

– Include spatial and transient 

analysis