HDR1012000130080329951500Wool and Mohair
HDR2012000130080329951500Wool and Mohair Narrative

Released March 29, 1995, by the Agricultural Statistics Board.  Production
estimates refer to 1994 and stocks estimates to January 1, 1995.

                     1994 Wool Production Down 11 Percent

Shorn wool production in the United States during 1994 was 68.6 million pounds,
down 11 percent from 1993.  Sheep and lambs shorn totaled 8.88 million head,
also a decrease of 11 percent from 1993.  The average price paid for wool sold
in 1994 was $0.78 per pound for a total value of $52.4 million, up 34 percent
from $39.1 million in 1993.

There were 51.9 million pounds of domestic and foreign apparel and carpet
scoured raw wool stored in the United States on January 1, 1995.

          Wool:  Production, Price, and Value, United States, 1992-94
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             :   Sheep    :   Weight   :   Shorn    :   Price    :
     Year    :   Shorn    :    per     :    Wool    :    per     :    Value
             :     1/     :   Fleece   : Production :  Pound 2/  :
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             :   1,000        Pounds       1,000       Dollars        1,000
             :    Head                     Pounds                    Dollars
             :
1992         :   10,521        7.88        82,943        .74         60,162
1993         :   *9,976       *7.77       *77,535        .51        *39,077
1994         :    8,882        7.73        68,643        .78         52,419
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
*   Revised.
1/  Includes shearing at commercial feeding yards.
2/  Weighted by sales.

              Wool Stocks:  Apparel and Carpet Wool, Scoured Basis,
                        United States, January 1, 1995 1/
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             :            :               Apparel                :
     Year    :   Grand    :--------------------------------------:   Carpet
             :   Total 2/ :   Total 2/ :  Domestic  :  Foreign   :
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             :                         Million Pounds
             :
1995         :    51.9         48.6         22.3         26.2          3.4
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/  Including washed wool, stocks held on consignment, stocks in custom bonded
    warehouses and stocks in the process of manufacture up to the carding
    operation.  Data does not include pulled wool and stocks held for the
    account of domestic growers except that held on consignment for growers.
    Data not included for companies with stocks of less than 10,000 pounds.
2/  Total may not add due to rounding.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------

For information call Linda Simpson at (202) 720-3578.  Office hours are
8:00 a.m. to 4:30 p.m. ET.

Lv Gn 2 (3-95)


Mohair production in the five major producing States (Arizona, Michigan, New
Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas) during 1994 was 12.6 million pounds, down
15 percent from 1993.  Goats and kids clipped, at 1.77 million head, were down
17 percent from 1993.  Average weight per head clipped was 7.1 pounds compared
with 6.9 pounds a year earlier.  Value of mohair production was $32.2 million,
up 167 percent from 1993.

HDR2012000130080329951500Production, Price, and Value

          Mohair:  Production, Price, and Value, 5-State Total, 1992-94
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              :            :  Average   :            :   Price    :
     Year     :   Goats    :  Clip per  : Production :    per     :  Value 2/
              :  Clipped   :    Goat    :            :  Pound 1/  :
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              :   1,000        Pounds       1,000       Dollars        1,000
              :    Head                     Pounds                    Dollars
              :
1992          :   2,254         6.9         15,582         .86         13,389
1993          :   2,145         6.9        *14,847         .82        *12,066
1994          :   1,774         7.1         12,608        2.56         32,247
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
*   Revised.
1/  Weighted by sales.
2/  Production multiplied by marketing year average price for individual
    States.  5- St value is summation of State values.

            Mohair:  Production, Price, and Value by Selected States
                           and 5-State Total, 1993-94
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
       :             :   Average   :             :             :
       :    Goats    :    Clip     :             :    Price    :
       :   Clipped   :     per     : Production  :     per     :   Value 2/
 State :             :    Goat     :             :  Pound 1/   :
       :-----------------------------------------------------------------------
       : 1993 : 1994 : 1993 : 1994 : 1993 : 1994 : 1993 : 1994 : 1993  : 1994
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
       :    1,000        Pounds        1,000         Dollars         1,000
       :    Head                       Pounds                       Dollars
       :
AZ     :   70     49    4.4    4.1     310    200  .32     .74       99    148
MI     :    8      7  *10.6   10.0     *85     70  .94    2.67      *80    187
NM     :  110     85    4.5    4.5     495    383  .63    1.61      312    617
OK     :   57     33    8.2    8.3     467    275  .81    2.52      378    693
TX     :1,900  1,600    7.1    7.3  13,490 11,680  .83    2.62   11,197 30,602
       :
5 Sts  :2,145  1,774    6.9    7.1 *14,847 12,608  .82    2.56  *12,066 32,247
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
*   Revised.
1/  Weighted by sales.
2/  Production multiplied by marketing year average price for individual
    states; 5- St value is summation of State values.


HDR2012000130080329951500Wool

           Wool:  Number of Sheep and Lambs Shorn, Weight per Fleece,
               and Production by State and United States, 1993-94
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             :     Sheep Shorn     :  Weight per Fleece  :     Production
     State   :-----------------------------------------------------------------
             :   1993   :   1994   :   1993   :   1994   :   1993   :   1994
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             : --- 1,000 Head ---     ---- Pounds ----     -- 1,000 Pounds --
             :
AL           :      9.0       8.0      5.6        5.8           50         46
AK           :       .9       1.2      7.8        6.7            7          8
AZ           :   *185.0     160.0     *7.0        6.9       *1,300      1,100
CA           :    800.0     695.0      7.6        7.7        6,044      5,318
CO           :    725.0     635.0      7.2        7.3        5,199      4,607
CT           :     *6.5       4.5      7.5        7.3          *49         33
ID           :    245.0     234.0     10.0        9.6        2,454      2,254
IL           :     99.0      96.0      6.9        6.7          681        639
IN           :    *86.0      75.8     *6.5        7.2         *562        548
IA           :    396.0     276.0      6.2        5.9        2,443      1,637
KS           :    169.0     130.0      7.3        7.0        1,228        908
KY           :    *27.0      18.5     *6.1        7.0         *165        130
LA           :     11.5      10.8      6.1        6.0           70         65
ME           :    *13.0      10.0      7.6        7.6          *99         76
MD           :     28.0      26.0      6.5        6.9          181        180
MA           :    *10.0       8.0      7.5        7.3          *75         58
MI           :    *81.0      79.0     *7.6        7.6         *612        599
MN           :    210.0     175.0      7.1        6.7        1,484      1,175
MO           :     99.0     105.0      7.1        6.5          700        686
MT           :   *570.0     533.0      9.7        9.6       *5,542      5,092
NE           :    121.0      95.0      7.5        7.1          902        673
NV           :     70.0      74.0      8.9        9.8          620        722
NH           :     *6.0       4.5      7.7        7.3          *46         33
NJ           :     11.4      11.4      7.0        7.5           80         85
NM           :    419.0     371.0      9.0        8.9        3,774      3,297
NY           :     61.0      63.0      6.9        7.1          419        448
NC           :     14.4      12.8      6.9        6.7           99         86
ND           :   *159.0     135.0      9.4        9.3       *1,496      1,260
OH           :   *197.0     170.0      7.2        7.1       *1,411      1,200
OK           :    *71.0      63.0     *7.2        6.2         *510        390
OR           :    381.0     342.0      6.3        6.6        2,396      2,266
PA           :    *88.0      81.0      7.0        6.9         *615        562
SD           :    580.0     520.0      8.6        8.6        5,003      4,465
TN           :     10.9       9.6      6.4        6.7           70         64
TX           :  2,340.0   2,120.0      7.3        7.0       17,000     14,840
UT           :    405.0     384.0      9.7       10.0        3,930      3,843
VT           :    *15.0      16.0      8.1        6.9         *122        110
VA           :     76.0      69.1      6.2        5.9          470        409
WA           :     62.0      47.0      9.3        8.8          575        415
WV           :     69.0      60.0      5.8        6.0          400        360
WI           :    *87.0      64.0     *7.5        7.6         *649        488
WY           :   *920.0     870.0     *8.4        8.4       *7,749      7,343
             :
Oth Sts 1/   :     41.4      19.2      6.1        6.5          254        125
             :
US           : *9,976.0   8,882.4     *7.77       7.73     *77,535     68,643
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
*   Revised.
1/  Includes AR, DE, FL, GA, HI, MS, RI, and SC.



           Wool:  Price and Value by State and United States, 1993-94
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
               :      Price per Pound 1/       :           Value 2/
      State    :---------------------------------------------------------------
               :     1993      :     1994      :     1993      :     1994
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
               :      ----- Dollars -----           ---- 1,000 Dollars ---
               :
AL             :      .32             .83                16             38
AK             :      .95            1.20                 7             10
AZ             :      .41             .47              *533            517
CA             :      .46             .65             2,780          3,457
CO             :      .50             .72             2,600          3,317
CT             :      .51             .62               *25             20
ID             :      .49             .68             1,202          1,533
IL             :      .24             .38               163            243
IN             :      .23             .34              *129            186
IA             :      .27             .39               660            638
KS             :      .40             .63               491            572
KY             :      .34             .53               *56             69
LA             :      .29             .53                20             34
ME             :      .69             .80               *68             61
MD             :      .39             .54                71             97
MA             :      .59             .79               *44             46
MI             :      .34             .52              *208            311
MN             :      .28             .42               416            494
MO             :      .28             .42               196            288
MT             :      .54             .86            *2,993          4,379
NE             :      .36             .50               325            337
NV             :      .51             .73               316            527
NH             :      .61             .81               *28             27
NJ             :      .50             .66                40             56
NM             :      .57             .83             2,151          2,737
NY             :      .41             .65               172            291
NC             :      .45             .61                45             52
ND             :      .40             .61              *598            769
OH             :      .31             .48              *437            576
OK             :      .39             .64              *199            250
OR             :      .36             .55               863          1,246
PA             :      .36             .58              *221            326
SD             :      .51             .75             2,552          3,349
TN             :      .38             .65                27             42
TX             :      .65            1.05            11,050         15,582
UT             :      .57             .70             2,240          2,690
VT             :      .81             .81               *99             89
VA             :      .37             .63               174            258
WA             :      .47             .60               270            249
WV             :      .35             .56               140            202
WI             :      .28             .44              *182            215
WY             :      .54             .84            *4,184          6,168
               :
Oth Sts 3/     :      .34             .57                86             71
               :
US             :      .51             .78           *39,077         52,419
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
*   Revised.
1/  Weighted by sales.
2/  Production multiplied by marketing year average price for individual
    States; US value is summation of State values.
3/  Includes AR, DE, FL, GA, MS, RI, and SC.


HDR2012000130080329951500Raw Carpet and Apparel Wool

     Raw Carpet and Apparel Wool:  Commercial Stocks, Domestic and Foreign,
                   by Grade, United States, January 1, 1995 1/
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                    :               :       Shorn Greasy Wool       :
                    :     Total     :-------------------------------:  Scoured
       Product      :  Equivalent   :               :   Estimated   :   Wool
                    :    Scoured    :    Greasy     :    Scoured    :  Weight
                    :    Weight 3/  :    Weight     :    Weight     :
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                    :                       1,000 Pounds
                    :
Carpet Wool         :     3,363           3,079           2,378           986
 (incl. rugs, etc.) :
                    :
Apparel Wool        :
 (incl. blankets,   :
  felt, etc.)       :
                    :
Domestic            :
                    :
  60's and Finer    :    14,660          22,061          11,766         2,894
                    :
  Coarser that 60   :     7,671           8,725           5,545         2,127
                    :
Total Domestic  3/  :    22,331          30,785          17,310         5,021
                    :
Foreign             :
                    :
  60's and Finer    :       2/           22,269             2/            2/
                    :
  Coarser than 60   :       2/            7,190             2/            2/
                    :
Total Foreign   3/  :    26,245          29,459          18,044         8,201
                    :
Total Apparel   3/  :    48,576          60,244          35,354        13,222
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/  Including washed wool, stocks held on consignment, stocks in Custom bonded
    warehouses and stocks in the process of manufacture up to the carding
    operation.  Data does not include pulled wool and stocks held for the
    account of domestic growers except that held on consignment for growers.
    Data not included for companies with stocks of less than 10,000 pounds.
2/  Data not published to avoid disclosing individual operations.
3/  Totals may not add due to rounding.


HDR2012000130080329951500Stocks by Product, United States

          Mohair:  Stocks by Product, United States, January 1, 1995 1/
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                    :              :      Shorn Greasy Wool      :
                    :    Total     :-----------------------------:   Scoured
       Product      :  Equivalent  :              :  Estimated   :     Wool
                    :   Scoured    :    Greasy    :   Scoured    :    Weight
                    :    Weight    :    Weight    :    Weight    :
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                    :                       1,000 Pounds
                    :
Adult Hair          :
 (34.0 and coarser  :     2/              2/             2/            2/
  Microns)          :
                    :
Young Goat Hair     :
  (29.1 - 33.9      :     2/              2/             2/            2/
   Microns)         :
                    :
Kid Hair            :    1,039          1,305          1,020            19
  (29.0 and finer   :
   Microns)         :
                    :
Total               :    3,638          5,778          3,164           474
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/  Includes stocks held on consignment and stocks in process of manufacture up
    to the carding operation.
2/  Data not published to avoid disclosing individual operations.

                   Wool and Mohair:  Stocks of Tops and Noils,
                         United States, January 1, 1995
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                    :                             :
       Product      :            Tops             :            Noils
                    :                             :
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                    :                       1,000 Pounds
                    :
Wool                :           11,289                        10,119
                    :
Mohair              :              1/                         10,226
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/  Data not published to avoid disclosing individual operations.



HDR2012000130080329951500Reliability

        Reliability of Wool and Mohair Production and Stocks Estimates

Survey Procedures:  A random sample of U. S. producers was surveyed to provide
                    data for the number of sheep shorn and production
estimates.  Survey procedures ensured that all sheep and goat producers,
regardless of size, had a chance to be included in the survey.  Large producers
were sampled more heavily than small operations.  Data were collected from
about 70,000 operators during the first half of January by mail, telephone, and
face-to-face personal interviews.

For the stocks of raw wool and mohair estimates, approximately 400 wool pools,
warehouses, buyers, ranchers and processors were contacted.  About
150 responded that they had raw wool and/or mohair as of January 1, 1995, and
are included in the estimate.


Estimation Procedures:  These sheep shorn, wool, and mohair production
                        estimates were prepared by the Agricultural Statistics
Board after reviewing recommendations and analysis submitted by each State
office.  National and State survey data were reviewed for reasonableness with
each other and with estimates from past years.  Consolidated Farm Service
Agency's (CFSA) record of pounds of wool and mohair from producers filing for
incentive payments was used as check data.


Revision Policy:  Revisions to previous estimates are made to improve the
                  current estimate.  Previous year estimates are subject to
revision when current estimates are made.  Inventory estimates will also be
reviewed after data from the Department of Commerce's five-year Census of
Agriculture are available.  No revisions will be made after that date.


Reliability:  Since all operations raising sheep and goats are not included in
              the sample for the inventory and production estimates, survey
data are subject to sampling variability.  Survey results for inventory,
production and stocks estimates are also subject to non-sampling errors such as
omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing
the data.  The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly.  They are
minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and
through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and
reasonableness.

To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report,
the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the table below.
The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance
and is computed using the differences between first and latest estimates.  The
"Root Mean Square Error" for sheep shorn estimates over the past 9 years is
0.5 percent.  This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate
will not be above or below the current estimate of 8.9 million head by more
than 0.5 percent, or about 44,400 head.  Chances are 9 out of 10 that the
difference will not exceed 1.0 percent, or about 88,800 head (the 90 percent
confidence level).


Also shown in the table is a 9-year record showing the range between the
first estimate and the latest estimate.  Using estimates for Sheep and Lambs
Shorn as an example, changes between the first inventory estimate and the
latest estimate during the past 9 years have averaged 46,200 head, ranging from
4,400 to 104,800 head.  The inventory estimate of Sheep and Lambs Shorn has
been below the latest estimate 6 times and above 3 times in the last 9 years.



  Reliability of U.S. Sheep and Lambs Shorn and Wool Production Estimates 1/
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
         :      :              :      Difference Between      :
         : Root :              :       First and Latest       :   Number of
         : Mean :      90%     :           Estimates          :     Years
  Item   :Square:  Confidence  :-----------------------------------------------
         : Error:     Level    :         :          :         : First : First
         :      :              : Average : Smallest : Largest : Above : Below
         :      :              :         :          :         : Latest: Latest
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
         : - Percent -    ----------- 1,000 Head ------------   Number
         :
Sheep    :
Shorn    :  0.5    1.0     88.8     46.2      4.4       104.8      3      6
         :
         :              ------------ 1,000 Pounds -----------
Wool     :
Prod.    :  0.7    1.4  1,085.5    378.4     16.0     1,307.0      3      6
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/  Based on data from 1985 through 1993.



The next "Wool and Mohair" report will be released in March 1996.


The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination in
its programs on the basis of race, color, national origin, sex, religion, age,
disability, political beliefs, and marital or familial status.  Persons with
disabilities who require alternative means for communication of program
information (braille, large print, audiotape, etc.) should contact the
USDA Office of Communications at (202) 720-5881 (voice) or (202) 720-7808
(TDD).

To file a complaint, write the Secretary of Agriculture, USDA, Washington,
D.C., 20250, or call (202) 720-7327 (voice) or (202) 720-1127 (TDD).  USDA is
an equal employment opportunity employer.
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