2004 California

Walnut Objective

Measurement Survey Report

Released: September 2, 2004

 12:00 NOON PDT

 CALIFORNIA AGRICULTURAL

 STATISTICS SERVICE

WALNUT PRODUCTION FORECAST DOWN SLIGHTLY

The 2004 California walnut production is forecast at

325,000 tons, down from 2003's record production of

326,000 tons. This forecast is based on the 2004 Walnut

Objective Measurement (O.M.) Survey, which was

conducted July 26 through August 24, 2004.

The 2004 Walnut O.M. Survey utilized a total of 694 blocks

with two sample trees per block. Survey data indicated an

average nut set of 1,526, down 5 percent from 2003's

average of 1,599. The Hartley nut set was up 18 percent;

Chandler, was down 13 percent; Serr, was down 30

percent; Franquette, was up 76 percent from 2003.

Percent of sound kernels in-shell was 98.2 percent

Statewide. In-shell weight per nut was 22.5 grams, while

the average in-shell suture measurement was 32.6

millimeters. The average length in-shell was 39.0

millimeters.

Estimated nut sets, sizing measurements, average number

of trees per acre, and estimated bearing acreage were

used in the regression formulas.

SURVEY HISTORY

The Walnut O.M. Survey began in 1958 to fulfill industry

needs for an accurate walnut production forecast prior to

harvest. The original sample was chosen proportionally to

county and variety of bearing acreage. With each

succeeding year, additions and deletions have been made

in the sample to adjust for acreage removed, new bearing

acreage and operations that choose not to participate in

the survey.

SAMPLING PROCEDURES

Once a block is randomly selected and permission is

granted by the operation for enumerators to enter the

block, two trees are randomly selected. An accessible

branch is chosen, which is 5-15 percent of the total crosssectional area of the primary limbs and reachable with a

twelve-foot ladder. Measurements are made on the trunk,

each primary, and each split leading to and including the

accessible branch. The sample tree and accessible

branch are marked by a single tag.

On the accessible branch, every first of five nuts is picked

for use in size and grade determinations. If available, at

least ten nuts are harvested from the accessible branch for

this purpose.

The following measurements are made on nuts selected

for sizing:

1. Weight of nut including hull

2. Width of shell at suture

3. Width of shell 90 degrees to suture line (cross-suture)

4. Length of shell

5. Kernel grade

6. Weight of nut in-shell

DATA RELIABILITY

The 80 percent confidence interval is from 297,000 tons to

353,000 tons. This means there is an 80 percent chance

the 2004 production will fall within this range.
- 2 -

California English Walnut Acreage, Production, Price And Value In-Shell

Year Bearing Acres Total Production Per Bearing Acre Price Per Ton Total Value

Tons Dollars

1987 176,000 247,000 1.40 984.00 243,048,000

1988 177,000 209,000 1.18 922.00 192,698,000

1989 179,000 229,000 1.28 1,070.00 245,030,000

1990 181,000 227,000 1.25 1,040.00 236,080,000

1991 181,000 259,000 1.43 1,060.00 274,540,000

1992 178,000 203,000 1.14 1,410.00 286,230,000

1993 185,000 260,000 1.41 1,390.00 361,400,000

1994 189,000 232,000 1.23 1,030.00 238,960,000

1995 193,000 234,000 1.21 1,400.00 327,600,000

1996 192,000 208,000 1.08 1,580.00 328,640,000

1997 193,000 269,000 1.39 1,430.00 384,670,000

1998 198,000 227,000 1.15 1,050.00 238,350,000

1999 197,000 283,000 1.44 886.00 250,738,000

2000 200,000 239,000 1.20 1,240.00 296,360,000

 2001 204,000 305,000 1.50 1,120.00 341,600,000

 2002 210,000 282,000 1.34 1,170.00 329,940,000

 2003 a/ 213,000 326,000 1.53 1,090.00 355,340,000

 2004 b/ c/ 217,000 325,000 1.50 --- ---

a/ Price Per Ton and Total Value are July 2004 preliminary data.

b/ Bearing years include plantings of the following: Chandler, Chico, Howard, Tulare (2000 & Earlier); 50-55, 59-124, 4946, Amigo,

 Ashley, Bardoni, Cisco, Earhorn, Grove, Gustine, Honeycutt, Houston, Jensen, Lompoc, Marchetti, Nuggett, Payne, Pedro, Serr,

 Sunland, Tehama, Trinta, UCD 67-13, Vina, Westside (1999 and Earlier); Franquette, Franquette Scharsch, Mayette, Placentia,

 Poe, Willsons/Willsons Wonder, Woodland (1997 & Earlier); all other varieties not specified (1998 & Earlier).

c/ Price Per Ton and Total Value preliminary data will be released July 2005.

NOTE: Pie chart percentages are based on the sum of grower acreage reported and may not add to 100 due to rounding.
- 3 -

Walnut Objective Measurement Survey Data, By District

Measurement Year Coast 1/ Sacramento Valley 2/ San Joaquin Valley 3/ State 4/

In-Shell Weight (gm) 1993 23.5 23.7 21.7 22.9

1994 20.9 23.6 20.7 22.1

1995 19.8 21.3 20.3 20.8

1996 20.0 24.4 19.9 22.1

1997 20.9 23.7 22.2 22.9

1998 21.2 22.4 20.3 21.4

1999 21.0 24.9 19.5 23.0

2000 19.7 22.4 19.7 21.2

2001 21.9 23.7 18.1 21.5

2002 19.1 22.9 20.5 22.0

2003 23.0 24.6 19.2 22.4

2004 22.0 24.1 19.7 22.5

In-Shell Width (mm) 1993 32.2 32.4 32.9 32.6

1994 31.4 32.4 32.2 32.2

1995 30.6 31.7 32.0 31.7

1996 31.4 32.5 32.2 32.3

1997 32.3 33.0 31.1 32.3

1998 31.4 32.2 31.5 31.9

1999 31.2 32.6 31.6 32.2

2000 31.5 32.4 32.1 32.2

2001 31.7 31.8 31.6 31.7

2002 31.4 32.2 32.7 32.4

2003 32.1 32.8 32.0 32.5

2004 31.4 32.5 32.7 32.6

In-Shell Cross-Width (mm) 1993 32.0 32.3 32.9 32.5

1994 31.3 32.4 32.3 32.2

1995 30.2 31.3 31.7 31.3

1996 31.4 32.6 32.5 32.5

1997 32.3 33.2 31.9 32.6

1998 31.2 32.1 31.5 31.8

1999 31.6 33.3 31.8 32.7

2000 31.3 33.0 32.6 32.8

2001 31.1 31.7 31.5 31.6

2002 31.0 32.6 33.1 32.7

2003 31.7 32.7 32.0 32.4

2004 31.5 32.2 33.1 32.5

In-Shell Length (mm) 1993 39.9 40.1 39.8 40.0

1994 38.7 39.7 39.3 39.4

1995 39.2 39.0 39.5 39.2

1996 38.4 39.4 38.7 39.0

1997 38.2 39.4 37.6 38.6

1998 39.1 40.0 39.0 39.5

1999 38.3 39.7 38.9 39.4

2000 37.4 38.2 38.4 38.2

2001 38.6 38.5 37.9 38.3

2002 37.5 38.4 38.8 38.5

2003 38.8 39.7 38.3 39.1

2004 37.7 39.1 38.7 39.0

Kernel Grade – Percent Sound 1993 93.2 95.2 97.2 95.8

1994 92.6 94.7 97.5 95.6

1995 89.2 91.4 96.1 93.1

1996 92.6 93.8 95.3 94.4

1997 97.8 97.4 97.3 97.3

1998 79.9 93.2 98.3 94.4

1999 96.8 98.2 97.4 97.9

2000 98.0 96.7 97.0 96.9

2001 98.3 97.5 98.1 97.8

2002 96.0 95.3 98.7 96.3

2003 95.5 95.4 99.3 97.0

2004 97.6 97.7 99.2 98.2

Nuts Set Per Tree 1993 1,530 2,703 1,596 2,068

1994 1,813 1,961 1,602 1,773

1995 1,420 2,253 1,451 1,777

1996 1,362 1,836 1,497 1,630

1997 1,128 2,233 1,439 1,753

1998 1,070 1,654 1,253 1,407

1999 1,355 2,180 1,250 1,709

2000 1,195 1,812 1,204 1,483

2001 937 2,020 1,478 1,719

2002 1,254 1,982 1,142 1,572

2003 640 1,846 1,429 1,599

2004 924 1,943 1,168 1,526

1/ Coast includes: Contra Costa, Lake, Monterey, Napa, San Benito, San Luis Obispo, Santa Clara, and Sonoma counties.

2/ Sacramento Valley includes: Butte, Colusa, El Dorado, Glenn, Sacramento, Solano, Sutter, Tehama, Yolo, and Yuba counties.

3/ San Joaquin Valley includes: Fresno, Kern, Kings, Madera, Merced, San Joaquin, Stanislaus, and Tulare counties.

4/ District and State averages are derived by weighting county averages by county bearing acreage figures.
- 4 -

Walnut Objective Measurement Survey Data, By Variety

Measurement Year Ashley Chandler Eureka Franquette Hartley Payne Serr Tehama Vina Other

In-Shell Weight (gm) 1993 19.8 23.5 21.7 21.2 25.2 20.8 20.8 20.3 20.2 21.7 

1994 19.3 24.3 20.9 20.3 24.7 19.7 20.0 21.1 19.7 21.0 

1995 18.0 20.7 19.1 18.6 23.1 19.5 18.6 18.7 18.4 19.3 

1996 20.0 23.3 20.6 20.1 24.8 18.1 19.8 21.2 20.1 21.1 

1997 19.8 24.4 23.2 21.1 24.8 20.4 21.3 20.5 20.5 22.2 

1998 19.2 21.9 20.8 20.2 24.0 19.6 19.5 19.5 19.2 19.9 

1999 20.3 24.9 22.1 20.0 24.6 19.0 20.3 19.1 20.7 20.9 

2000 17.5 22.9 21.7 18.3 22.8 18.8 19.3 19.8 19.3 19.9 

2001 17.8 22.7 20.0 21.2 23.2 16.9 17.8 21.7 19.9 19.3 

2002 18.0 24.1 20.8 18.3 23.6 19.3 19.4 19.6 20.0 21.0 

2003 17.1 23.6 21.0 23.7 25.2 16.6 17.2 20.8 19.8 22.1 

2004 18.4 23.4 20.4 22.1 24.5 17.7 18.5 20.3 19.1 22.2 

In-Shell Width (mm) 1993 32.3 32.5 30.9 31.3 33.2 33.3 33.6 31.5 30.5 31.6 

1994 31.8 32.7 30.9 30.8 33.2 32.1 33.3 32.4 30.5 30.8 

1995 31.0 31.7 30.6 30.1 32.6 31.9 32.4 31.6 29.7 30.6 

1996 31.7 32.4 31.6 31.1 33.0 32.2 33.0 32.3 30.9 31.2 

1997 31.8 32.3 30.7 30.6 33.3 31.5 33.3 32.0 31.0 30.8 

1998 31.2 31.8 30.2 30.7 33.0 31.4 32.1 31.2 30.6 31.1 

1999 30.7 32.8 30.4 31.0 32.8 31.5 32.6 30.9 30.4 31.2 

2000 31.0 32.8 31.3 30.6 32.8 32.3 33.1 31.1 30.9 31.0 

2001 30.3 32.0 32.0 30.5 32.3 31.2 31.8 31.3 30.3 30.7 

2002 31.7 32.9 31.8 29.8 32.8 33.0 32.9 31.7 31.0 31.7 

2003 31.0 32.9 32.1 32.4 33.2 31.7 31.5 31.6 30.8 32.3 

2004 32.1 32.5 31.5 31.8 32.8 32.9 33.4 31.5 30.8 33.4 

In-Shell Cross-Width (mm) 1993 32.2 32.9 31.7 31.4 33.0 33.0 32.7 31.3 30.8 32.1 

1994 31.6 33.2 31.4 31.3 33.0 31.9 32.3 31.9 31.6 31.9 

1995 30.6 31.7 30.5 30.1 32.1 31.3 30.9 30.7 30.1 31.0 

1996 31.7 33.1 32.1 31.5 32.9 32.2 32.1 32.5 32.1 32.3 

1997 31.9 33.0 32.2 31.3 33.2 32.0 33.0 32.1 32.1 32.0 

1998 31.2 30.9 30.5 31.2 32.5 31.4 31.6 30.8 30.8 31.7 

1999 30.8 34.0 31.0 31.2 33.2 31.4 31.9 30.8 31.5 32.0 

2000 31.2 33.9 32.0 30.5 33.2 32.7 32.6 31.6 32.0 32.3 

2001 30.1 32.0 31.1 30.6 32.2 31.0 31.2 30.9 30.6 30.8 

2002 31.8 33.7 32.7 30.1 32.9 33.1 32.6 31.8 31.8 32.4 

2003 30.6 33.1 32.2 32.3 33.1 31.2 30.6 31.6 31.3 32.2 

2004 32.0 32.6 32.3 31.3 32.8 33.1 33.4 31.0 30.9 33.1 

In-Shell Length (mm) 1993 37.5 40.2 42.5 39.6 41.1 39.2 37.7 37.0 38.9 39.8 

1994 37.1 40.9 43.0 38.7 40.3 37.9 37.9 38.0 38.6 39.2 

1995 36.8 39.6 41.2 38.8 40.1 38.4 37.5 37.8 38.6 38.6 

1996 37.0 39.4 41.4 38.6 40.0 37.8 37.3 37.6 38.8 39.2 

1997 36.2 39.2 41.0 37.8 39.5 36.6 37.4 37.2 38.1 38.5 

1998 37.2 40.0 40.8 39.6 40.9 38.0 37.7 37.7 38.4 39.6 

1999 36.9 40.4 42.6 38.2 39.6 38.1 38.5 37.3 38.7 39.5 

2000 35.8 39.4 43.0 37.4 38.2 38.2 37.6 36.9 37.3 38.3 

2001 35.2 38.7 41.6 38.4 38.9 37.0 36.4 37.2 37.4 38.3 

2002 36.1 39.7 41.4 37.0 38.7 38.2 37.5 36.8 37.6 38.5 

2003 35.7 39.7 41.7 40.9 40.4 36.5 36.0 37.6 38.0 39.1 

2004 36.4 39.6 41.3 39.3 39.7 37.0 37.1 36.4 37.4 38.8 

Kernel Grade – 1993 89.8 99.0 92.5 93.9 97.4 94.0 95.3 94.5 94.9 94.8 

Percent Sound 1994 91.3 96.6 95.7 95.7 95.3 96.9 96.9 96.4 94.0 97.3 

1995 91.6 93.6 93.4 89.8 93.8 95.2 95.6 88.7 92.4 93.5 

1996 92.3 95.1 93.4 89.8 95.1 95.4 96.6 92.7 95.8 94.2 

1997 96.2 97.8 94.9 96.6 98.1 96.5 97.0 96.7 97.5 96.6 

1998 94.4 91.4 99.8 89.5 94.4 96.3 97.9 94.3 95.2 95.2 

1999 96.1 98.1 97.1 98.3 98.1 95.0 98.3 96.4 98.2 97.3 

2000 95.6 96.7 93.1 97.8 96.4 97.3 97.7 96.4 98.2 97.3 

2001 94.3 98.8 98.9 98.8 97.4 97.3 96.3 98.0 98.7 97.5 

2002 96.4 96.8 98.6 97.2 96.1 96.8 93.3 98.3 97.0 96.8 

2003 97.5 97.4 98.8 97.0 97.2 99.2 96.1 91.8 96.9 95.1 

2004 97.9 99.0 98.4 95.6 98.2 99.4 98.3 99.1 98.0 96.7 

Nuts Set Per Tree 1993 1,147 2,099 1,452 2,532 2,742 1,444 1,626 1,653 1,654 1,818 

1994 1,391 1,711 1,905 2,781 1,974 1,540 1,154 1,207 1,619 1,643 

1995 1,392 1,912 1,590 2,348 2,284 1,404 984 1,961 1,260 1,157 

1996 1,353 1,659 1,296 2,356 1,853 1,285 1,417 958 1,355 1,472 

1997 1,406 1,570 1,414 2,162 2,228 1,304 796 1,703 1,894 1,839 

1998 1,221 1,306 1,380 1,512 1,457 1,170 1,622 1,347 1,504 1,290 

1999 1,073 1,540 1,369 2,818 2,241 1,076 989 1,210 1,374 1,536 

2000 1,633 1,212 1,325 1,899 1,878 1,696 886 1,167 1,566 1,379 

2001 1,510 1,741 1,718 1,819 2,049 1,443 1,342 1,560 1,488 1,533 

2002 1,534 1,315 1,246 2,072 1,961 1,246 1,259 1,446 1,611 1,642 

2003 1,421 1,594 1,858 1,195 1,735 1,995 1,679 1,021 1,544 1,377 

2004 1,504 1,381 1,223 2,108 2,046 1,152 1,172 1,488 1,471 1,167 
- 5 -

Percentage Distribution Of Walnut Shell Suture Sizes, By District And Variety

District

and Variety

U.S. Standards Size Intervals 1/

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Mth Jmb Lge Med Bby Oth Mth Jmb Lge Med Bby Oth Mth Jmb Lge Med Bby Oth Mth Jmb Lge Med Bby Oth Mth Jmb Lge Med Bby Oth

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Percent of Total 2/ - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

DISTRICTS:

 Coast 0 49 10 18 20 1 5 40 20 22 13 0 6 34 12 19 27 1 1 56 14 16 13 0 0 50 12 20 16 1 Sacramento Vly. 1 58 14 13 11 1 1 54 16 15 13 1 0 61 13 13 11 0 1 70 13 10 6 0 2 62 15 11 10 1 San Joaquin Vly. 0 56 19 13 8 0 0 48 23 17 12 0 1 68 15 10 6 0 0 56 19 16 8 0 2 65 15 11 7 0

VARIETIES:

 Ashley 0 41 21 13 18 2 0 28 21 24 26 1 1 54 17 13 14 0 1 34 19 26 19 0 1 56 16 12 16 1 Chandler 2 64 14 9 7 0 1 55 21 16 8 0 0 74 13 9 3 0 0 74 14 8 4 0 1 63 16 11 8 0 Eureka 0 38 28 18 9 0 0 50 36 13 2 0 0 49 35 13 2 0 0 63 26 6 4 0 1 47 30 10 12 0 Franquette 0 28 21 28 20 1 0 27 25 29 18 1 0 19 15 31 33 1 0 65 15 13 6 0 0 51 21 18 9 1 Hartley 1 68 11 9 8 0 1 63 14 11 10 0 0 72 11 9 7 0 1 76 12 7 4 0 1 69 14 9 6 1 Payne 0 59 21 10 7 0 0 40 26 20 14 0 4 65 10 11 10 0 0 49 27 15 8 1 1 67 13 10 8 0 Serr 0 73 12 8 5 0 0 56 17 14 12 1 1 70 13 9 6 0 0 48 19 22 10 1 2 77 10 6 5 0 Tehama 0 43 22 14 16 1 0 48 16 20 15 1 0 55 18 14 12 1 0 52 17 15 16 0 0 53 13 18 15 1 Vina 0 33 23 26 15 1 1 28 16 25 28 2 0 40 21 22 16 1 0 34 19 26 19 1 0 39 18 18 22 2 Other 1 35 19 20 21 1 1 36 15 22 22 3 2 44 12 21 20 0 4 52 15 16 14 0 8 60 11 12 9 0 STATE 1 57 16 13 10 1 1 51 18 16 13 1 1 63 14 13 10 0 1 64 15 12 7 0 2 63 15 11 9 1Number of Shells Measured 12,930 12,252 13,338 13,539 13,8221/ Sizes used are as follows: Mammoth -- Larger than 96/64" in diameter; Jumbo -- 80/64" to 96/64"; Large -- 76/64" to 80/64" for Eureka variety,

 77/64" to 80/64" for all other varieties; Medium -- 73/64" to 76/64" for Eureka, 73/64" to 77/64" for all others; Baby -- 60/64" to 73/64"; and Others -- below 60/64".2/ Percentage distributions based upon nut samples taken in the field, may not equal 100 percent due to rounding.
- 6 -

The California Walnut Industry has been very supportive.

We appreciate your continued cooperation!

CALIFORNIA AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS SERVICE

P.O. BOX 1258

SACRAMENTO, CA 95812-1258

(916) 498-5161

FAX: (916) 498-5186

VIC TOLOMEO JACK RUTZ 

 Director Deputy Director 

GARY NELSON -- DOUG FLOHR -- JENNIFER VAN COURT

Agricultural Statisticians -- Estimates Group

California Agricultural Statistics Service publications are available on the Internet at:

http://www.nass.usda.gov/ca