HDR1012000160030816951500MILK PRODUCTION                                        
HDR2012000160030816951500MILK PRODUCTION HIGHLIGHTS                             
Released August 16, 1995, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service       
(NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture.  For     
information on "Milk Production" call Kevin Hintzman at (202) 720-4448, office  
hours 8:00 a.m. to 4:30 p.m. ET.  For assistance with general agricultural      
statistics, information about NASS, its products or services, contact the NASS  
Information Hotline at 1-800-727-9540 or E-mail: NASS@AG.GOV.                   
                                                                                
                     July Milk Production Up 1 Percent                          
                                                                                
Milk production in the 22 major States during July totaled 11.4 billion pounds, 
1 percent above production in these same States in July 1994.  June revised     
production, at 11.5 billion pounds was 2 percent more than June 1994.           
                                                                                
Production per cow in the 22 major States averaged 1,409 pounds for             
July, 20 pounds above July 1994.                                                
                                                                                
The number of cows on farms in the 22 major States was 8.10 million head,       
unchanged from both July 1994 and June 1995.                                    
                                                                                
During the April-June period, the 22 major States produced 34.9 billion pounds  
of milk, 86.1 percent of the U.S. production. If the remaining 28 States not    
surveyed monthly followed the same pattern as the 22 States, the U.S. production
would be 13.3 billion pounds for July 1995.                                     
                                                                                
                                      Note                                      
                                                                                
Page 6 contains corrections to the "Grain and Other Concentrates" table         
published in the July Milk Production report.  The corrections affected the U.S.
estimates only.                                                                 
                                                                                
Da 1-1 (8-95)                                                                   
HDR2012000160030816951500MILK COWS & PROD:  BY QTR, US, 94-95                   
        Milk Cows and Production:  By Quarter, United States,  1994-95          
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
        :    Milk Cows  1/   :  Milk per Cow  2/ :     Milk Production 2/       
        :---------------------------------------------------------------------- 
Quarter :          :         :         :         :         :         : 1995 as  
        :  1994    :  1995   :  1994   :  1995   :  1994   :  1995   :   % of   
        :          :         :         :         :         :         :   1994   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
        :    ---- 1,000 ----        Pounds         Million Pounds      Percent  
        :                                                                       
Jan-Mar :    9,506     9,517     3,951     4,093    37,560    38,950       104  
Apr-Jun :    9,530     9,517     4,188     4,254    39,916    40,487       101  
Jul-Sep :    9,539               4,007              38,217                      
Oct-Dec :    9,524               3,983              37,933                      
        :                                                                       
Annual  :    9,525              16,129             153,626                      
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
1/  Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh.                          
2/  Excludes milk sucked by calves.                                             
                                                                                
HDR2012000160030816951500MILK COWS & PROD:  BY MO, 22 SELECTED STS, 94-95       
        Milk Cows and Production:  By Month, 22 Selected States, 1994-95        
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
        :    Milk Cows  1/   :  Milk per Cow  2/ :     Milk Production 2/       
        :---------------------------------------------------------------------- 
 Month  :          :         :         :         :         :         : 1995 as  
        :  1994    :  1995   :  1994   :  1995   :  1994   :  1995   :   % of   
        :          :         :         :         :         :         :   1994   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
        :    ---- 1,000 ----        Pounds         Million Pounds      Percent  
        :                                                                       
Jan     :    8,092     8,090     1,343     1,394    10,870    11,280       104  
Feb     :    8,082     8,088     1,236     1,291     9,990    10,441       105  
Mar     :    8,074     8,103     1,401     1,444    11,315    11,698       103  
Apr     :    8,080     8,097     1,396     1,417    11,282    11,477       102  
May     :    8,097     8,093     1,457     1,475    11,799    11,936       101  
Jun     :    8,107     8,104     1,388     1,414    11,249    11,461       102  
Jul     :    8,104     8,104     1,389     1,409    11,260    11,415       101  
Aug     :    8,108               1,369              11,102                      
Sep     :    8,109               1,318              10,689                      
Oct     :    8,104               1,354              10,970                      
Nov     :    8,098               1,312              10,624                      
Dec     :    8,094               1,370              11,090                      
        :                                                                       
Annual  :    8,096              16,334             132,240                      
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
1/  Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh.                          
2/  Excludes milk sucked by calves.                                             
                                                                                
HDR2012000160030816951500MILK COWS & PROD:  BY STS, Jul 94-95                   
             Milk Cows and Production:  By State,  July 1994-95                 
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
        :    Milk Cows  1/   :  Milk per Cow  2/ :     Milk Production 2/       
        :---------------------------------------------------------------------- 
 State  :          :         :         :         :         :         : 1995 as  
        :  1994    :  1995   :  1994   :  1995   :  1994   :  1995   :   % of   
        :          :         :         :         :         :         :   1994   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
        :    ---- 1,000 ----        Pounds         Million Pounds      Percent  
        :                                                                       
CA      :    1,237     1,254     1,745     1,745     2,159     2,188       101  
FL      :      176       162     1,155     1,140       203       185        91  
ID      :      211       234     1,610     1,580       340       370       109  
IL      :      165       162     1,300     1,330       215       215       100  
IN      :      145       144     1,340     1,300       194       187        96  
IA      :      264       262     1,270     1,305       335       342       102  
KY      :      167       163       970     1,025       162       167       103  
MD      :       92        94     1,140     1,160       105       109       104  
MI      :      328       327     1,470     1,490       482       487       101  
MN      :      605       600     1,305     1,325       790       795       101  
MO      :      198       188     1,115     1,190       221       224       101  
NM      :      170       198     1,694     1,610       288       319       111  
NY      :      715       700     1,355     1,390       969       973       100  
NC      :       91        86     1,285     1,325       117       114        97  
OH      :      294       288     1,290     1,330       379       383       101  
PA      :      640       640     1,330     1,375       851       880       103  
TN      :      156       154     1,020     1,060       159       163       103  
TX      :      402       402     1,215     1,190       488       478        98  
VT      :      157       157     1,305     1,300       205       204       100  
VA      :      129       129     1,170     1,210       151       156       103  
WA      :      262       268     1,725     1,725       452       462       102  
WI      :    1,500     1,492     1,330     1,350     1,995     2,014       101  
        :                                                                       
22 State:                                                                       
 Total  :    8,104     8,104     1,389     1,409    11,260    11,415       101  
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
1/  Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh.                          
2/  Excludes milk sucked by calves.                                             
                                                                                
HDR2012000160030816951500MILK COWS & PROD:  BY STS, Jun 94-95                   
            Milk Cows and Production:  By State,  June 1994-95 1/               
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
        :    Milk Cows  2/   :  Milk per Cow  3/ :     Milk Production 3/       
        :---------------------------------------------------------------------- 
 State  :          :         :         :         :         :         : 1995 as  
        :  1994    :  1995   :  1994   :  1995   :  1994   :  1995   :   % of   
        :          :         :         :         :         :         :   1994   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
        :    ---- 1,000 ----        Pounds         Million Pounds      Percent  
        :                                                                       
CA      :    1,235     1,254     1,715     1,680     2,118     2,105        99  
FL      :      178       162     1,245     1,220       222       198        89  
ID      :      208       232     1,560     1,520       324       353       109  
IL      :      165       163     1,300     1,340       215       218       101  
IN      :      145       144     1,280     1,290       186       186       100  
IA      :      264       262     1,260     1,310       333       343       103  
KY      :      167       163       975     1,050       163       171       105  
MD      :       92        94     1,175     1,200       108       113       105  
MI      :      328       327     1,450     1,470       476       481       101  
MN      :      610       600     1,335     1,370       814       822       101  
MO      :      198       190     1,110     1,200       220       228       104  
NM      :      169       196     1,657     1,585       280       311       111  
NY      :      718       702     1,380     1,430       991     1,004       101  
NC      :       91        86     1,330     1,365       121       117        97  
OH      :      295       288     1,235     1,340       364       386       106  
PA      :      640       639     1,360     1,400       870       895       103  
TN      :      157       154     1,030     1,110       162       171       106  
TX      :      404       402     1,240     1,255       501       505       101  
VT      :      156       157     1,320     1,370       206       215       104  
VA      :      130       129     1,145     1,240       149       160       107  
WA      :      262       268     1,700     1,700       445       456       102  
WI      :    1,495     1,492     1,325     1,355     1,981     2,023       102  
        :                                                                       
22 State:                                                                       
 Total  :    8,107     8,104     1,388     1,414    11,249    11,461       102  
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
1/  1995 revised.  2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh.        
3/  Excludes milk sucked by calves.                                             
HDR2012000160030816951500RELIABILITY STATEMENT                                  
Survey Procedures:  Primary data used to determine these estimates were         
                    obtained from a sample of producers. Individual States      
maintain a list of all known milk producers and information on the size of      
their herd.  States use all known sources of producers to ensure that their     
lists are as complete as possible.  Generally, all large producers and a        
sample of small producers are included in the survey.  Questionnaires are mailed
to producers near the end of the month to obtain data for the first             
day of the month.  Additional reports are obtained by telephone, as needed,     
to supplement the mail response.                                                
                                                                                
Estimation Procedures:   State offices prepare these estimates using survey     
                         indications, historic trends, and any available        
administrative data.  Individual State estimates are reviewed by the            
Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness.                               
                                                                                
Revision Policy:  Milk production, rate per cow, and number of cows are         
                  subject to revision the following month for monthly States or 
the following quarter for the quarterly States.  Normally, Federal Market Order 
sales are the main basis for revisions. However, data for all orders are not    
available in time for this revision.  Estimates are again subject to revisions  
in February each year based on additional administrative data.  In the event    
that additional changes are necessary, a third revision is possible in February 
the following year.  Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five-year 
Census of Agriculture, conducted by the Department of Commerce, are available.  
No revisions are made after that date.                                          
                                                                                
Reliability:  Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in       
              the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling              
variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as     
omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and              
processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured             
directly.  They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data        
collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for        
consistency and reasonableness.                                                 
                                                                                
To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this          
report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the         
table below. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on     
past performance and is computed using the differences between first and        
final estimates.  The "Root Mean Square Error" for milk cow inventory           
estimates over the past 10 quarters is 1.1 percent.  This means that            
chances are 2 out of 3 that the final April-June estimate will not be above or  
below the current estimate of 9.52 million head by more than 1.1 percent, or    
about 105,000 head.  Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed
2.1 percent, or about 200,000 head (the 90 percent confidence level).           
HDR2012000160030816951500RELIABILITY TABLE                                      
                Reliability of April-June Milk Estimates 1/                     
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
             :        :              :    Difference Between    :               
             :        :              :      First and Final     :    Number of  
             :  Root  :     90%      :         Estimates  1/    :    Quarters   
    Item     :  Mean  :  Confidence  :------------------------------------------
             : Square :    Level     :        :         :       : First : First 
             :  Error :              : Average: Smallest:Largest: Above : Below 
             :        :              :        :         :       : Final : Final 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             :   - Percent -     ---------- Mil Lbs. ----------     - Number -  
             :                                                                  
Milk         :    0.6    1.1     445       204       38      426     8       2  
  Production :                                                                  
             :                  --------- 1,000 Head ----------                 
                                                                                
             :                                                                  
All Milk     :    1.1    2.1     200        97       12      188    10       0  
  Cows       :                                                                  
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/  Based on records for the past 10 April-June quarters.                       
                                                                                
HDR2012000160030816951500GRAIN & OTH CONC.: QTY. FED ANN. & VAL. US             
       Grain and Other Concentrates:  Quantity Fed Annually and Value           
                             United States                                      
----------------------------------------------------------------------------    
         :       Annual Quantity       :                :                       
         :      Fed to Milk Cows       : Annual Average :  Annual Average       
  Year   :-----------------------------:    Value of    :    Feed Value         
         :  Total  : Per Cow : Per Cwt :    Feed per    :     per Cwt           
         :         :         : of Milk :       Cwt      :     of Milk           
---------:------------------------------------------------------------------    
         :1,000 Tons   ---- Pounds ----      -------- Dollars -------           
         :                                                                      
    1993 :  31,952     6,664      42.4*       7.78              3.30*           
    1994 :  32,584     6,846      42.4*       7.98              3.39*           
----------------------------------------------------------------------------    
*  Corrected estimates.                                                         
HDR2012000160030816951500EEO STATEMENT & SUBSCRIPTION INFO                      
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September 15, 1995.                                                             
                                                                                
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