2005 California Walnut Objective

Measurement Survey Report

Released: September 1, 2005

 12:00 P.M. PDT

 

 USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

California Field Office 

WALNUT PRODUCTION FORECAST UP

The 2005 California walnut production is forecast at a

record 340,000 tons, up 5 percent from 2004's production

of 325,000 tons. This forecast is based on the 2005

Walnut Objective Measurement (O.M.) Survey, which was

conducted July 29 through August 24, 2005.

The 2005 Walnut O.M. Survey utilized a total of 655 blocks

with two sample trees per block. Survey data indicated an

average nut set of 1,575 per tree, up 3 percent from 2004's

average of 1,526. The Hartley nut set was down 15

percent; Chandler, was up 29 percent; Serr, was up 22

percent; Franquette, was down 40 percent from 2004.

Percent of sound kernels in-shell was 97.5 percent

Statewide. In-shell weight per nut was 20.0 grams, while

the average in-shell suture measurement was 31.7

millimeters. The average length in-shell was 38.6

millimeters.

Estimated nut sets, sizing measurements, average number

of trees per acre, and estimated bearing acreage were

used in the statistical models.

SURVEY HISTORY

The Walnut O.M. Survey began in 1958 to fulfill industry

needs for an accurate walnut production forecast prior to

harvest. The original sample was chosen proportionally to

county and variety of bearing acreage. With each

succeeding year, additions and deletions have been made

in the sample to adjust for acreage removed, new bearing

acreage and operations that choose not to participate in

the survey.

SAMPLING PROCEDURES

Once a block is randomly selected and permission is

granted by the operation for enumerators to enter the

block, two trees are randomly selected. An accessible

branch is chosen, which is 5-15 percent of the total crosssectional area of the primary limbs and reachable with a

twelve-foot ladder. Measurements are made on the trunk,

each primary, and each split leading to and including the

accessible branch. The sample tree and accessible

branch are marked by a single tag.

On the accessible branch, every first of five nuts is picked

for use in size and grade determinations. If available, at

least ten nuts are harvested from the accessible branch for

this purpose.

The following measurements are made on nuts selected

for sizing:

1. Weight of nut including hull

2. Width of shell at suture

3. Width of shell 90 degrees to suture line (cross-suture)

4. Length of shell

5. Kernel grade

6. Weight of nut in-shell

DATA RELIABILITY

The 80 percent confidence interval is from 313,000 tons to

367,000 tons. This means there is an 80 percent chance

the 2005 production will fall within this range.
- 2 -

California English Walnut Acreage, Production, Price And Value In-Shell

Year Bearing Acres Total Production Per Bearing Acre Price Per Ton Total Value

Tons Dollars

1987 176,000 247,000 1.40 984.00 243,048,000

1988 177,000 209,000 1.18 922.00 192,698,000

1989 179,000 229,000 1.28 1,070.00 245,030,000

1990 181,000 227,000 1.25 1,040.00 236,080,000

1991 181,000 259,000 1.43 1,060.00 274,540,000

1992 178,000 203,000 1.14 1,410.00 286,230,000

1993 185,000 260,000 1.41 1,390.00 361,400,000

1994 189,000 232,000 1.23 1,030.00 238,960,000

1995 193,000 234,000 1.21 1,400.00 327,600,000

1996 192,000 208,000 1.08 1,580.00 328,640,000

1997 193,000 269,000 1.39 1,430.00 384,670,000

1998 198,000 227,000 1.15 1,050.00 238,350,000

1999 197,000 283,000 1.44 886.00 250,738,000

2000 200,000 239,000 1.20 1,240.00 296,360,000

 2001 204,000 305,000 1.50 1,120.00 341,600,000

 2002 210,000 282,000 1.34 1,170.00 329,940,000

 2003 213,000 326,000 1.53 1,160.00 378,160,000

 2004 a/ 217,000 325,000 1.50 1,350.00 438,750,000

 2005 b/ c/ 219,000 340,000 1.55 --- ---

a/ Price Per Ton and Total Value are July 2005 preliminary data.

b/ Bearing years include plantings of the following: Chandler, Chico, Howard, Tulare (2001 & Earlier); 50-55, 59-124, 4946, Amigo,

 Ashley, Bardoni, Cisco, Earhorn, Grove, Gustine, Honeycutt, Houston, Jensen, Lompoc, Marchetti, Nuggett, Payne, Pedro, Serr,

 Sunland, Tehama, Trinta, UCD 67-13, Vina, Westside (2000 and Earlier); Franquette, Franquette Scharsch, Mayette, Placentia,

 Poe, Willsons/Willsons Wonder, Woodland (1998 & Earlier); all other varieties not specified (1999 & Earlier).

c/ Price Per Ton and Total Value preliminary data will be released July 2006.
- 3 -

Walnut Objective Measurement Survey Data, By District

Measurement Year Coast 1/ Sacramento Valley 2/ San Joaquin Valley 3/ State 4/

In-Shell Weight (gm) 1994 20.9 23.6 20.7 22.1

1995 19.8 21.3 20.3 20.8

1996 20.0 24.4 19.9 22.1

1997 20.9 23.7 22.2 22.9

1998 21.2 22.4 20.3 21.4

1999 21.0 24.9 19.5 23.0

2000 19.7 22.4 19.7 21.2

2001 21.9 23.7 18.1 21.5

2002 19.1 22.9 20.5 22.0

2003 23.0 24.6 19.2 22.4

2004 22.0 24.1 19.7 22.5

2005 23.1 21.3 18.1 20.0

In-Shell Width (mm) 1994 31.4 32.4 32.2 32.2

1995 30.6 31.7 32.0 31.7

1996 31.4 32.5 32.2 32.3

1997 32.3 33.0 31.1 32.3

1998 31.4 32.2 31.5 31.9

1999 31.2 32.6 31.6 32.2

2000 31.5 32.4 32.1 32.2

2001 31.7 31.8 31.6 31.7

2002 31.4 32.2 32.7 32.4

2003 32.1 32.8 32.0 32.5

2004 31.4 32.5 32.7 32.6

2005 32.9 31.4 32.1 31.7

In-Shell Cross-Width (mm) 1994 31.3 32.4 32.3 32.2

1995 30.2 31.3 31.7 31.3

1996 31.4 32.6 32.5 32.5

1997 32.3 33.2 31.9 32.6

1998 31.2 32.1 31.5 31.8

1999 31.6 33.3 31.8 32.7

2000 31.3 33.0 32.6 32.8

2001 31.1 31.7 31.5 31.6

2002 31.0 32.6 33.1 32.7

2003 31.7 32.7 32.0 32.4

2004 31.5 32.2 33.1 32.5

2005 32.2 31.3 32.0 31.6

In-Shell Length (mm) 1994 38.7 39.7 39.3 39.4

1995 39.2 39.0 39.5 39.2

1996 38.4 39.4 38.7 39.0

1997 38.2 39.4 37.6 38.6

1998 39.1 40.0 39.0 39.5

1999 38.3 39.7 38.9 39.4

2000 37.4 38.2 38.4 38.2

2001 38.6 38.5 37.9 38.3

2002 37.5 38.4 38.8 38.5

2003 38.8 39.7 38.3 39.1

2004 37.7 39.1 38.7 39.0

2005 42.0 38.4 38.7 38.6

Kernel Grade – Percent Sound 1994 92.6 94.7 97.5 95.6

1995 89.2 91.4 96.1 93.1

1996 92.6 93.8 95.3 94.4

1997 97.8 97.4 97.3 97.3

1998 79.9 93.2 98.3 94.4

1999 96.8 98.2 97.4 97.9

2000 98.0 96.7 97.0 96.9

2001 98.3 97.5 98.1 97.8

2002 96.0 95.3 98.7 96.3

2003 95.5 95.4 99.3 97.0

2004 97.6 97.7 99.2 98.2

2005 97.4 96.5 98.8 97.5

Nuts Set Per Tree 1994 1,813 1,961 1,602 1,773 

1995 1,420 2,253 1,451 1,777 

1996 1,362 1,836 1,497 1,630 

1997 1,128 2,233 1,439 1,753 

1998 1,070 1,654 1,253 1,407 

1999 1,355 2,180 1,250 1,709 

2000 1,195 1,812 1,204 1,483 

2001 937 2,020 1,478 1,719 

2002 1,254 1,982 1,142 1,572 

2003 640 1,846 1,429 1,599 

2004 924 1,943 1,168 1,526 

2005 818 1,854 1,372 1,575 

1/ Coast includes: Contra Costa, Lake, Monterey, Napa, San Benito, San Luis Obispo, Santa Clara, and Sonoma counties.

2/ Sacramento Valley includes: Butte, Colusa, El Dorado, Glenn, Sacramento, Solano, Sutter, Tehama, Yolo, and Yuba counties.

3/ San Joaquin Valley includes: Fresno, Kern, Kings, Madera, Merced, San Joaquin, Stanislaus, and Tulare counties.

4/ District and State averages are derived by weighting county averages by county bearing acreage figures.
- 4 -

Walnut Objective Measurement Survey Data, By Variety

Measurement Year Ashley Chandler Eureka Franquette Hartley Payne Serr Tehama Vina Other

In-Shell Weight (gm) 1994 19.3 24.3 20.9 20.3 24.7 19.7 20.0 21.1 19.7 21.0 

1995 18.0 20.7 19.1 18.6 23.1 19.5 18.6 18.7 18.4 19.3 

1996 20.0 23.3 20.6 20.1 24.8 18.1 19.8 21.2 20.1 21.1 

1997 19.8 24.4 23.2 21.1 24.8 20.4 21.3 20.5 20.5 22.2 

1998 19.2 21.9 20.8 20.2 24.0 19.6 19.5 19.5 19.2 19.9 

1999 20.3 24.9 22.1 20.0 24.6 19.0 20.3 19.1 20.7 20.9 

2000 17.5 22.9 21.7 18.3 22.8 18.8 19.3 19.8 19.3 19.9 

2001 17.8 22.7 20.0 21.2 23.2 16.9 17.8 21.7 19.9 19.3 

2002 18.0 24.1 20.8 18.3 23.6 19.3 19.4 19.6 20.0 21.0 

2003 17.1 23.6 21.0 23.7 25.2 16.6 17.2 20.8 19.8 22.1 

2004 18.4 23.4 20.4 22.1 24.5 17.7 18.5 20.3 19.1 22.2 

2005 16.3 19.8 18.9 20.3 22.9 16.4 16.7 16.6 18.1 20.0 

In-Shell Width (mm) 1994 31.8 32.7 30.9 30.8 33.2 32.1 33.3 32.4 30.5 30.8 

1995 31.0 31.7 30.6 30.1 32.6 31.9 32.4 31.6 29.7 30.6 

1996 31.7 32.4 31.6 31.1 33.0 32.2 33.0 32.3 30.9 31.2 

1997 31.8 32.3 30.7 30.6 33.3 31.5 33.3 32.0 31.0 30.8 

1998 31.2 31.8 30.2 30.7 33.0 31.4 32.1 31.2 30.6 31.1 

1999 30.7 32.8 30.4 31.0 32.8 31.5 32.6 30.9 30.4 31.2 

2000 31.0 32.8 31.3 30.6 32.8 32.3 33.1 31.1 30.9 31.0 

2001 30.3 32.0 32.0 30.5 32.3 31.2 31.8 31.3 30.3 30.7 

2002 31.7 32.9 31.8 29.8 32.8 33.0 32.9 31.7 31.0 31.7 

2003 31.0 32.9 32.1 32.4 33.2 31.7 31.5 31.6 30.8 32.3 

2004 32.1 32.5 31.5 31.8 32.8 32.9 33.4 31.5 30.8 33.4 

2005 31.4 31.1 30.7 31.6 32.5 31.7 32.2 31.0 31.4 32.4 

In-Shell Cross-Width (mm) 1994 31.6 33.2 31.4 31.3 33.0 31.9 32.3 31.9 31.6 31.9 

1995 30.6 31.7 30.5 30.1 32.1 31.3 30.9 30.7 30.1 31.0 

1996 31.7 33.1 32.1 31.5 32.9 32.2 32.1 32.5 32.1 32.3 

1997 31.9 33.0 32.2 31.3 33.2 32.0 33.0 32.1 32.1 32.0 

1998 31.2 30.9 30.5 31.2 32.5 31.4 31.6 30.8 30.8 31.7 

1999 30.8 34.0 31.0 31.2 33.2 31.4 31.9 30.8 31.5 32.0 

2000 31.2 33.9 32.0 30.5 33.2 32.7 32.6 31.6 32.0 32.3 

2001 30.1 32.0 31.1 30.6 32.2 31.0 31.2 30.9 30.6 30.8 

2002 31.8 33.7 32.7 30.1 32.9 33.1 32.6 31.8 31.8 32.4 

2003 30.6 33.1 32.2 32.3 33.1 31.2 30.6 31.6 31.3 32.2 

2004 32.0 32.6 32.3 31.3 32.8 33.1 33.4 31.0 30.9 33.1 

2005 30.9 31.1 31.7 31.4 32.1 31.4 31.5 30.1 31.6 32.6 

In-Shell Length (mm) 1994 37.1 40.9 43.0 38.7 40.3 37.9 37.9 38.0 38.6 39.2 

1995 36.8 39.6 41.2 38.8 40.1 38.4 37.5 37.8 38.6 38.6 

1996 37.0 39.4 41.4 38.6 40.0 37.8 37.3 37.6 38.8 39.2 

1997 36.2 39.2 41.0 37.8 39.5 36.6 37.4 37.2 38.1 38.5 

1998 37.2 40.0 40.8 39.6 40.9 38.0 37.7 37.7 38.4 39.6 

1999 36.9 40.4 42.6 38.2 39.6 38.1 38.5 37.3 38.7 39.5 

2000 35.8 39.4 43.0 37.4 38.2 38.2 37.6 36.9 37.3 38.3 

2001 35.2 38.7 41.6 38.4 38.9 37.0 36.4 37.2 37.4 38.3 

2002 36.1 39.7 41.4 37.0 38.7 38.2 37.5 36.8 37.6 38.5 

2003 35.7 39.7 41.7 40.9 40.4 36.5 36.0 37.6 38.0 39.1 

2004 36.4 39.6 41.3 39.3 39.7 37.0 37.1 36.4 37.4 38.8 

2005 36.3 38.4 41.6 40.3 39.8 37.2 37.0 36.0 38.0 38.4 

Kernel Grade – 1994 91.3 96.6 95.7 95.7 95.3 96.9 96.9 96.4 94.0 97.3 

Percent Sound 1995 91.6 93.6 93.4 89.8 93.8 95.2 95.6 88.7 92.4 93.5 

1996 92.3 95.1 93.4 89.8 95.1 95.4 96.6 92.7 95.8 94.2 

1997 96.2 97.8 94.9 96.6 98.1 96.5 97.0 96.7 97.5 96.6 

1998 94.4 91.4 99.8 89.5 94.4 96.3 97.9 94.3 95.2 95.2 

1999 96.1 98.1 97.1 98.3 98.1 95.0 98.3 96.4 98.2 97.3 

2000 95.6 96.7 93.1 97.8 96.4 97.3 97.7 96.4 98.2 97.3 

2001 94.3 98.8 98.9 98.8 97.4 97.3 96.3 98.0 98.7 97.5 

2002 96.4 96.8 98.6 97.2 96.1 96.8 93.3 98.3 97.0 96.8 

2003 97.5 97.4 98.8 97.0 97.2 99.2 96.1 91.8 96.9 95.1 

2004 97.9 99.0 98.4 95.6 98.2 99.4 98.3 99.1 98.0 96.7 

2005 96.7 96.9 99.8 95.7 97.0 98.4 99.5 97.0 99.1 97.9 

Nuts Set Per Tree 1994 1,391 1,711 1,905 2,781 1,974 1,540 1,154 1,207 1,619 1,643 

1995 1,392 1,912 1,590 2,348 2,284 1,404 984 1,961 1,260 1,157 

1996 1,353 1,659 1,296 2,356 1,853 1,285 1,417 958 1,355 1,472 

1997 1,406 1,570 1,414 2,162 2,228 1,304 796 1,703 1,894 1,839 

1998 1,221 1,306 1,380 1,512 1,457 1,170 1,622 1,347 1,504 1,290 

1999 1,073 1,540 1,369 2,818 2,241 1,076 989 1,210 1,374 1,536 

2000 1,633 1,212 1,325 1,899 1,878 1,696 886 1,167 1,566 1,379 

2001 1,510 1,741 1,718 1,819 2,049 1,443 1,342 1,560 1,488 1,533 

2002 1,534 1,315 1,246 2,072 1,961 1,246 1,259 1,446 1,611 1,642 

2003 1,421 1,594 1,858 1,195 1,735 1,995 1,679 1,021 1,544 1,377 

2004 1,504 1,381 1,223 2,108 2,046 1,152 1,172 1,488 1,471 1,167 

2005 1,323 1,783 1,639 1,267 1,729 1,443 1,429 1,067 1,251 1,256 
- 5 -

Percentage Distribution Of Walnut Shell Suture Sizes, By District And Variety

District

and Variety

U.S. Standards Size Intervals 1/

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Mth Jmb Lge Med Bby Oth Mth Jmb Lge Med Bby Oth Mth Jmb Lge Med Bby Oth Mth Jmb Lge Med Bby Oth Mth Jmb Lge Med Bby Oth

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Percent of Total 2/ - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

DISTRICTS:

 Coast 5 40 20 22 13 0 6 34 12 19 27 1 1 56 14 16 13 0 0 50 12 20 16 1 1 71 15 9 4 0 Sacramento Vly. 1 54 16 15 13 1 0 61 13 13 11 0 1 70 13 10 6 0 2 62 15 11 10 1 1 47 19 15 12 3 San Joaquin Vly. 0 48 23 17 12 0 1 68 15 10 6 0 0 56 19 16 8 0 2 65 15 11 7 0 1 56 20 17 6 0

VARIETIES:

 Ashley 0 28 21 24 26 1 1 54 17 13 14 0 1 34 19 26 19 0 1 56 16 12 16 1 1 47 17 17 16 1 Chandler 1 55 21 16 8 0 0 74 13 9 3 0 0 74 14 8 4 0 1 63 16 11 8 0 0 42 23 21 10 3 Eureka 0 50 36 13 2 0 0 49 35 13 2 0 0 63 26 6 4 0 1 47 30 10 12 0 0 29 37 21 11 1 Franquette 0 27 25 29 18 1 0 19 15 31 33 1 0 65 15 13 6 0 0 51 21 18 9 1 0 53 19 17 11 0 Hartley 1 63 14 11 10 0 0 72 11 9 7 0 1 76 12 7 4 0 1 69 14 9 6 1 1 64 14 9 7 2 Payne 0 40 26 20 14 0 4 65 10 11 10 0 0 49 27 15 8 1 1 67 13 10 8 0 1 51 19 19 8 1 Serr 0 56 17 14 12 1 1 70 13 9 6 0 0 48 19 22 10 1 2 77 10 6 5 0 2 60 16 11 11 0 Tehama 0 48 16 20 15 1 0 55 18 14 12 1 0 52 17 15 16 0 0 53 13 18 15 1 0 45 19 18 15 1 Vina 1 28 16 25 28 2 0 40 21 22 16 1 0 34 19 26 19 1 0 39 18 18 22 2 4 32 27 21 12 1 Other 1 36 15 22 22 3 2 44 12 21 20 0 4 52 15 16 14 0 8 60 11 12 9 0 2 57 15 12 11 1 STATE 1 51 18 16 13 1 1 63 14 13 10 0 1 64 15 12 7 0 2 63 15 11 9 1 1 51 19 16 10 2Number of Shells Measured 12,252 13,338 13,539 13,822 12,7361/ Sizes used are as follows: Mammoth -- Larger than 96/64" in diameter; Jumbo -- 80/64" to 96/64"; Large -- 76/64" to 80/64" for Eureka variety,

 77/64" to 80/64" for all other varieties; Medium -- 73/64" to 76/64" for Eureka, 73/64" to 77/64" for all others; Baby -- 60/64" to 73/64"; and Others -- below 60/64".2/ Percentage distributions based upon nut samples taken in the field, may not equal 100 percent due to rounding.
- 6 -

The California Walnut Industry has been very supportive.

We appreciate your continued cooperation!

USDA, NASS, CALIFORNIA FIELD OFFICE

P.O. BOX 1258

SACRAMENTO, CA 95812-1258

(916) 498-5161

FAX: (916) 498-5186

VIC TOLOMEO JACK RUTZ 

 Director Deputy Director 

DOUG FLOHR -- JENNIFER VAN COURT

Agricultural Statisticians -- Estimates Group

USDA, NASS, California Field Office publications are available free of charge on the Internet at:

http://www.nass.usda.gov/ca