HDR1012000110080514971500POTATO STOCKS                                          
Potato                                                                          
Stocks                                                                          
                                                                                
National                                                                        
Agricultural                                                                    
Statistics                                                                      
Service                                                                         
                                                                                
USDA                                                                            
Washington, D.C.                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
Released May 14, 1997, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS),  
Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture.  For information 
on "Potato Stocks" call Arvin Budge at (202) 720-4285, office hours 7:30 a.m.   
to 4:00 p.m. ET.                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                   Potato Stocks Up 32 Percent                                  
                                                                                
Potato stocks totaled 101 million cwt on May 1, 1997, up 32 percent from last   
year and 15 percent above two years ago.  Disappearance for the season was a    
record high 340 million cwt of potatoes, 7 percent above last year and          
6 percent above two years ago.  Shrinkage and loss of 32.8 million cwt was      
9 percent above a year ago.  Processors used a record high 166 million cwt of   
potatoes, up 7 percent for the season.                                          
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
Pot 1-2 (5-97)                                                                  
         Fall Potatoes:  Production and Stocks, 15 Major States, 1987-96        
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
   Crop  :          :         :         :         :         :         :         
   Year  :Production:  Dec 1  :  Jan 1  :  Feb 1  :  Mar 1  :  Apr 1  :  May 1  
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
         :                              1,000 Cwt                               
         :                                                                      
1987     : 335,607    225,890   196,760   167,325   138,800   105,905    70,030 
1988     : 305,623    206,420   177,750   151,050   124,485    92,585    59,355 
1989     : 316,097    202,050   173,550   144,290   116,600    84,320    50,675 
1990     : 344,200    225,500   194,460   162,850   134,470   101,150    63,040 
1991     : 363,541    242,070   211,005   178,515   145,820   108,865    69,110 
1992     : 368,516    246,820   215,990   184,560   152,795   115,785    75,040 
1993     : 375,004    249,710   217,800   186,090   154,135   115,970    73,860 
1994     : 408,139    272,290   237,960   201,870   168,970   128,825    87,500 
1995     : 392,942    256,310   223,150   188,960   155,720   116,255    76,170 
1996     : 441,083    291,300   256,520   220,465   184,565   143,235   100,780 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
        Potatoes:  Quantity Used for Processing, Eight States, 1994-96 1/       
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
     State and     :        :        :        :       :       :       :         
     Crop Year     : Dec 1  : Jan 1  : Feb 1  : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 : Season  
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                   :                         1,000 Cwt                          
                   :                                                            
ID & OR-Malheur Co :                                                            
  1994             : 26,620   34,230   42,330   49,890  57,990  66,680   90,300 
  1995             : 27,310   35,040   43,260   51,530  59,060  66,690   89,250 
  1996             : 31,060   38,210   45,420   54,640  62,570  70,720          
                   :                                                            
ME 2/              :                                                            
  1994             :  1,505    1,840    2,265    2,540   2,985   3,330    4,770 
  1995             :  1,335    1,690    2,180    2,520   3,025   3,465    5,225 
  1996             :  1,400    1,725    2,225    2,520   3,135   3,720          
                   :                                                            
WA & OR - Other    :                                                            
  1994             : 28,670   33,480   39,120   46,070  52,940  59,540   76,780 
  1995             : 30,000   35,170   39,460   45,280  51,730  57,360   70,250 
  1996             : 31,650   36,590   41,690   48,740  55,570  62,140          
                   :                                                            
Oth Sts 3/         :                                                            
  1994             :  8,785   12,070   14,605   17,095  19,840  22,595   32,260 
  1995             : 12,450   15,330   18,415   21,485  24,910  28,010   33,305 
  1996             : 13,660   16,570   20,140   23,500  27,005  29,885          
                   :                                                            
Total              :                                                            
  1994             : 65,580   81,620   98,320  115,595 133,755 152,145  204,110 
  1995             : 71,095   87,230  103,315  120,815 138,725 155,525  198,030 
  1996             : 77,770   93,095  109,475  129,400 148,280 166,465          
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1/  Total quantity received and used for processing regardless of the State in  
    which the potatoes were produced.  Amount excludes quantities used for      
    potato chips in ME, MI, MN, ND, and WI.                                     
2/  Includes Maine grown potatoes only.                                         
3/  MI, MN, ND, and WI.                                                         
           Fall Potatoes:  Production and Stocks on May 1, 1996-97 1/           
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
               :          Crop of 1995          :         Crop of 1996          
               :----------------------------------------------------------------
     State     :          :  Stocks  :    %     :          :  Stocks  :    %    
               :   Prod   :  May 1,  :    of    :   Prod   :  May 1,  :   of    
               :          :   1996   :   Prod   :          :   1997   :  Prod   
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
               : ---- 1,000 Cwt ---    Percent    ---- 1,000 Cwt ---    Percent 
               :                                                                
CA             :   5,330      1,100       21        4,600      1,100      24    
CO             :  23,808      6,200       26       28,786      9,800      34    
ID             : 132,657     36,000       27      139,960     38,000      27    
ME             :  17,160      2,800       16       21,175      5,200      25    
MI             :  16,350      1,200        7       13,800      1,300       9    
MN             :  20,790      4,500       22       24,600      6,500      26    
MT             :   2,940        340       12        3,213        220       7    
NE             :   3,680      2/200                 4,402      2/390            
NY             :   7,695        150        2        7,980        160       2    
ND             :  25,410      4,500       18       28,820      6,500      23    
OH             :   1,404         2/                 1,275         2/            
OR             :  24,788      4,500       18       31,684     11,000      35    
PA             :   4,080        180        4        4,208        110       3    
WA             :  80,850     12,500       15       94,990     16,500      17    
WI             :  26,000      2,000        8       31,590      4,000      13    
               :                                                                
Total 15 State : 392,942     76,170       19      441,083    100,780      23    
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/ Stocks include processor holdings and some seed to plant 1997 potatoes.  1996
    crop seed usage total 30.4 million cwt.                                     
2/ Combined to prevent possible disclosure of individual operations.            
                                                                                
                   Potato Stocks Up 32 Percent                                  
                                                                                
                                                                                
May 1, 1997 stocks totaled 101 million cwt, up 32 percent from last year and    
15 percent above two years ago.  Stocks made up 23 percent of fall potato       
production in the 15 storage States, up 4 points from a year ago.  Season-to-   
date disappearance totaled a record high 340 million cwt, up 7 percent from     
last year and 6 percent above two years ago.  Processor usage was also record   
high at 166 million cwt, up 7 percent from last year.  Shrinkage and loss to    
date was 32.8 million cwt, 9 percent above a year ago and 7 percent above losses
two years ago.                                                                  
                                                                                
                                                                                
Processing continued to move potatoes at a record pace for the season.  April   
processor usage was 18.2 million cwt, up 8 percent from a year ago but 1 percent
below two years ago.                                                            
                                                                                
                                                                                
Eastern States stored 5.47 million cwt of potatoes on May 1, 1997, up 75 percent
from last year and 80 percent above two years ago.  Maine's stocks were up      
86 percent.  New York was up 7 percent.  Pennsylvania was down 39 percent.      
                                                                                
                                                                                
Central States held 18.7 million cwt of potatoes in storage on May 1, 1997.     
This is 51 percent above last year and 43 percent higher than two years ago.    
Wisconsin's stocks were doubled, while North Dakota's and Minnesota's stocks    
were up 44 percent from last year.  Nebraska's stocks were up 95 percent, and   
Michigan's stocks were up 8 percent.                                            
                                                                                
                                                                                
Western States potato stocks totaled 76.6 million cwt in six States, up         
26  percent from last year and 7 percent above two years ago.  Idaho's stocks   
were up 6 percent.  Washington's stocks gained 32 percent, and Oregon's stocks  
were more than double last year's level.  These three States contain 65 percent 
of                                                                              
U.S. stocks.  Colorado's stocks were up 58 percent.  Montana's stocks were down 
35 percent, while California equaled a year ago.                                
              Reliability of May 1 Stocks Estimates                             
                                                                                
                                                                                
The "Root Mean Square Error" for the May 1 stocks estimate is 7.7 percent.  This
means that chances are two out of three that the current estimate of 101 million
cwt will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 7.7 percent or   
approximately 7.8 million cwt.  Chances are nine out of 10 (90 percent          
confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 13.3 percent or           
13.4 million cwt.                                                               
                                                                                
The 10-year (1986-95) record of differences between the May 1 stocks estimate   
and the final estimates averaged 4.2 million cwt, ranging from 0.6 million cwt  
to 11.5 million cwt.  During this 10-year period, the May 1 estimate has been   
below the final estimate eight out of 10 years.                                 
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
             Fall Potato Stocks:  Preliminary and Final May Stocks,             
                             United States, 1986-96                             
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
   Crop   :      Preliminary      :        % of         :         Final         
   Year   :        Stocks         :        Final        :       Stocks 1/       
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          :       1,000 Cwt               Percent               1,000 Cwt       
          :                                                                     
1986      :         57,040                  95.4                 59,790         
1987      :         71,640                 102.3                 70,030         
1988      :         54,390                  91.6                 59,355         
1989      :         50,125                  98.9                 50,675         
1990      :         54,400                  86.3                 63,040         
1991      :         70,020                 101.3                 69,110         
1992      :         63,550                  84.7                 75,040         
1993      :         68,060                  92.1                 73,860         
1994      :         81,495                  93.1                 87,500         
1995      :         72,210                  94.8                 76,170         
1996      :        100,780                                                      
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1/  As reported in the September "Potato" annual report.                        
                                                                                
                                                                                
Note:  Stocks are defined as the quantity (whether sold or not) remaining in    
       storage for all purposes and uses, including seed potatoes not yet moved 
       and shrinkage, waste, and other losses that occur after the date of each 
       report.  Sales of fall potatoes for all purposes for the past 5 years    
       averaged 90.5 percent of the total fall production shrinkage, loss and   
       home use account for the remaining 9.5 percent.  Most seed for use the   
       following year is on hand but remains as part of stocks until planted.   
The next "Potato Stocks" report will be released at 3:00 p.m. ET on December 16,
1997.                                                                           
                                                                                
                                                                                
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disabilities who require alternative means for communication of program         
information (braille, large print, audiotape, etc.) should contact the USDA's   
TARGET Center at 202-720-2600 (voice and TDD).                                  
                                                                                
To file a complaint, write the Secretary of Agriculture, USDA, Washington, D.C.,
20250, or call 1-800-245-6340 (voice) or (202) 720-1127 (TDD).  USDA's is an    
equal employment opportunity employer.                                          
                                                                                
                                                                                
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