Da 1-1 (7-99)

Washington, D.C.

Milk

Production

Released July 15, 1999, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of

Agriculture. For information on "Milk Production" call James Hand at 202-690-3236, office hours 7:00 a.m. to 4:30 p.m. ET.

June Milk Production Up 3.4 Percent 

Milk production in the 20 major States during June totaled 11.8 billion pounds, up 3.4 percent

from production in these same States in June 1998. May revised production, at 12.4 billion

pounds, was up 3.5 percent from May 1998.

Production per cow in the 20 major States averaged 1,525 pounds for June, 48 pounds above

June 1998.

The number of cows on farms in the 20 major States was 7.73 million head, 11,000 head more

than June 1998, and 4,000 head more than May 1999. 

April-June Milk Production Up 3.0 Percent

The quarterly production of milk for the U.S. was 42.0 billion pounds, 3.0 percent above the

April-June period last year. The average number of milk cows in the U.S. during the AprilJune quarter was 9.15 million head, 20,000 head less than the same period last year.
Milk Production Agricultural Statistics Board

July 1999 2 NASS, USDA

Milk Cows and Production: By Quarter, United States, 1998-99 1

Quarter

Milk Cows 2 Milk Per Cow 3 Milk Production 3

1998 1999 1998 1999 1998 1999

Change

From

1998

1,000 Head 1,000 Head Pounds Pounds Million Pounds Million Pounds Percent

Jan-Mar

Apr-Jun

Jul-Sep

Oct-Dec

Annual

9,176

9,171

9,149

9,137

9,158

9,136

9,151

4,268

4,451

4,210

4,261

17,192

4,437

4,593

39,164

40,821

38,519

38,937

157,441

40,540

42,034

3.5

3.0

1 May not add due to rounding. 2 Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3 Excludes milk sucked by calves.

Milk Cows and Production: By Month, 20 Selected States, 1998-99

Month

Milk Cows 1 Milk Per Cow 2 Milk Production 2

1998 1999 1998 1999 1998 1999

Change

From

1998

1,000 Head 1,000 Head Pounds Pounds Million Pounds Million Pounds Percent

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Annual

7,728

7,716

7,709

7,713

7,719

7,718

7,709

7,708

7,701

7,695

7,697

7,708

7,710

7,704

7,702

7,708

7,714

7,725

7,729

1,466

1,347

1,515

1,501

1,556

1,477

1,468

1,443

1,386

1,446

1,407

1,489

17,501

1,521

1,403

1,584

1,554

1,609

1,525

11,327

10,394

11,678

11,579

12,011

11,396

11,314

11,124

10,672

11,125

10,829

11,481

134,930

11,720

10,809

12,212

11,989

12,430

11,785

3.5

4.0

4.6

3.5

3.5

3.4

1 Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2 Excludes milk sucked by calves.

Estimated Milk Production: United States, 1998-99

Month

By Month Cumulative

1998 1999

Change

From

1998

1998 1999

Change

From

1998

Million Pounds Million Pounds Percent Million Pounds Million Pounds Percent

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

13,282

12,188

13,694

13,510

14,015

13,296

13,162

12,942

12,415

12,956

12,611

13,370

13,676

12,613

14,251

13,920

14,431

13,683

3.0

3.5

4.1

3.0

3.0

2.9

13,282

25,470

39,164

52,674

66,689

79,985

93,147

106,089

118,504

131,460

144,071

157,441

13,676

26,289

40,540

54,460

68,891

82,574

3.0

3.2

3.5

3.4

3.3

3.2
Milk Production Agricultural Statistics Board

July 1999 3 NASS, USDA

Milk Cows and Production: By State, June 1998-99

Month

Milk Cows 1 Milk Per Cow 2 Milk Production 2

1998 1999 1998 1999 1998 1999

Change

From

1998

1,000 Head 1,000 Head Pounds Pounds Million Pounds Million Pounds Percent

AZ

CA

FL

ID

IL

IN

IA

KY

MI

MN

MO

NM

NY

OH

PA

TX

VT

VA

WA

WI

20-State

 Total

131

1,417

160

293

128

137

222

141

303

555

171

217

701

264

623

353

162

125

247

1,368

7,718

134

1,464

159

316

122

136

215

133

291

545

160

234

702

260

614

346

162

121

247

1,368

7,729

1,780

1,635

1,170

1,660

1,360

1,340

1,433

1,000

1,515

1,425

1,135

1,755

1,430

1,420

1,435

1,320

1,420

1,185

1,835

1,435

1,477

1,830

1,725

1,295

1,670

1,420

1,390

1,460

1,000

1,530

1,485

1,095

1,730

1,470

1,460

1,495

1,325

1,450

1,225

1,875

1,465

1,525

233

2,317

187

486

174

184

318

141

459

791

194

381

1,002

375

894

466

230

148

453

1,963

11,396

245

2,525

206

528

173

189

314

133

445

809

175

405

1,032

380

918

458

235

148

463

2,004

11,785

5.2

9.0

10.2

8.6

-0.6

2.7

-1.3

-5.7

-3.1

2.3

-9.8

6.3

3.0

1.3

2.7

-1.7

2.2

2.2

2.1

3.4 1 Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2 Excludes milk sucked by calves.
Milk Production Agricultural Statistics Board

July 1999 4 NASS, USDA

Milk Cows and Production: By State, May 1998-99 1

State

Milk Cows 2 Milk per Cow 3 Milk Production 3

1998 1999 1998 1999 1998 1999

Change

From

1998

1,000 Head 1,000 Head Pounds Pounds Million Pounds Million Pounds Percent

AZ

CA

FL

ID

IL

IN

IA

KY

MI

MN

MO

NM

NY

OH

PA

TX

VT

VA

WA

WI

20-State

 Total

130

1,414

162

293

128

137

223

141

299

555

172

217

701

265

623

356

162

125

248

1,368

7,719

134

1,460

160

314

123

136

215

133

293

545

161

232

702

260

615

345

162

122

247

1,366

7,725

1,945

1,720

1,350

1,680

1,510

1,420

1,520

1,115

1,560

1,490

1,285

1,795

1,490

1,485

1,550

1,480

1,480

1,310

1,885

1,480

1,556

2,060

1,820

1,405

1,710

1,490

1,400

1,550

1,120

1,600

1,550

1,305

1,795

1,530

1,540

1,605

1,515

1,515

1,345

1,935

1,515

1,609

253

2,432

219

492

193

195

339

157

466

827

221

390

1,044

394

966

527

240

164

467

2,025

12,011

276

2,657

225

537

183

190

333

149

469

845

210

416

1,074

400

987

523

245

164

478

2,069

12,430

9.1

9.3

2.7

9.1

-5.2

-2.6

-1.8

-5.1

0.6

2.2

-5.0

6.7

2.9

1.5

2.2

-0.8

2.1

2.4

2.2

3.5 1 1999 revised. 2 Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3 Excludes milk sucked by calves.
Milk Production Agricultural Statistics Board

July 1999 5 NASS, USDA

Milk Cows and Production: By State and United States,

Revised January-March, 1998-99

State

Jan-Mar Milk Cows 1 Jan-Mar Milk Production 2 Change

From

1998 1999 1998 1999 1998

1,000 Head 1,000 Head Million Pounds Million Pounds Percent

AL

AK

AZ

AR

CA

CO

CT

DE

FL

GA

HI

ID

IL

IN

IA

KS

KY

LA

ME

MD

MA

MI

MN

MS

MO

MT

NE

NV

NH

NJ

NM

NY

NC

ND

OH

OK

OR

PA

RI

SC

SD

TN

TX

UT

VT

VA

WA

WV

WI

WY

US 3

28

0.9

130

51

1,405

83

30

11.0

161

95

9.0

283

129

134

224

80

143

64

40

87

26

297

555

43

175

18

70

25

19

19

216

698

77

53

265

92

88

625

2.1

25

102

108

365

88

162

125

250

18

1,376

6.2

9,176

27

1.0

132

45

1,448

82

29

11.0

158

90

8.8

306

125

136

217

85

135

62

42

86

25

298

545

39

164

18

72

25

19

18

225

701

73

50

260

92

88

615

2.0

24

102

100

341

91

162

122

248

18

1,367

5.9

9,136

109

3.52

695

164

6,764

407

136

44.0

657

403

31.5

1,356

546

546

950

335

444

216

165

348

109

1,301

2,334

169

609

72

259

113

83

75

1,014

2,863

332

179

1,113

322

384

2,745

8.3

105

341

401

1,498

361

664

477

1,286

71

5,537

19.2

39,164

106

3.47

776

130

7,289

417

134

43.9

679

400

29.9

1,468

528

547

961

350

420

208

175

350

106

1,353

2,425

160

608

74

292

118

82

70

1,152

2,981

317

176

1,102

325

403

2,717

7.9

103

367

379

1,547

382

684

468

1,350

71

5,686

18.9

40,540

-2.8

-1.4

11.7

-20.7

7.8

2.5

-1.5

-0.2

3.3

-0.7

-5.1

8.3

-3.3

0.2

1.2

4.5

-5.4

-3.7

6.1

0.6

-2.8

4.0

3.9

-5.3

-0.2

2.8

12.7

4.4

-1.2

-6.7

13.6

4.1

-4.5

-1.7

-1.0

0.9

4.9

-1.0

-4.8

-1.9

7.6

-5.5

3.3

5.8

3.0

-1.9

5.0

2.7

-1.6

3.5 1 Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2 Excludes milk sucked by calves. 3 May not add due to rounding.
Milk Production Agricultural Statistics Board

July 1999 6 NASS, USDA

Milk Cows and Production: By State and United States,

Preliminary April-June, 1998-99

State Apr-Jun Milk Cows 1 Apr-Jun Milk Production 2 Change

From

1998 1999 1998 1999 1998

1,000 Head 1,000 Head Million Pounds Million Pounds Percent

AL

AK

AZ

AR

CA

CO

CT

DE

FL

GA

HI

ID

IL

IN

IA

KS

KY

LA

ME

MD

MA

MI

MN

MS

MO

MT

NE

NV

NH

NJ

NM

NY

NC

ND

OH

OK

OR

PA

RI

SC

SD

TN

TX

UT

VT

VA

WA

WV

WI

WY

US 3

28

0.9

130

49

1,414

83

30

11.0

161

95

8.8

291

128

137

223

81

141

63

41

86

26

300

555

42

172

18

69

25

20

19

217

701

76

52

265

92

89

623

2.1

25

102

106

356

90

162

125

248

18

1,368

6.1

9,171

27

1.0

133

45

1,460

81

29

11.0

160

90

8.6

314

123

136

215

86

133

61

42

86

25

293

545

39

161

18

73

25

19

18

232

701

73

49

260

92

88

615

2.0

24

102

99

344

91

162

122

247

18

1,366

5.9

9,151

104

3.67

731

167

7,061

432

136

44.4

629

381

35.7

1,445

559

571

984

345

458

203

173

348

112

1,371

2,414

157

641

74

263

120

87

75

1,143

3,040

325

181

1,159

316

404

2,815

8.6

100

362

399

1,528

388

698

477

1,366

70

5,896

20.7

40,821

100

3.57

794

132

7,759

405

137

43.6

660

386

32.5

1,577

533

561

970

360

431

189

180

337

109

1,367

2,469

150

595

77

304

128

83

67

1,223

3,128

311

181

1,149

317

440

2,855

8.3

101

380

373

1,509

406

714

473

1,405

69

6,032

20.1

42,034

-3.8

-2.7

8.6

-21.0

9.9

-6.3

0.7

-1.8

4.9

1.3

-9.0

9.1

-4.7

-1.8

-1.4

4.3

-5.9

-6.9

4.0

-3.2

-2.7

-0.3

2.3

-4.5

-7.2

4.1

15.6

6.7

-4.6

-10.7

7.0

2.9

-4.3

-0.9

0.3

8.9

1.4

-3.5

1.0

5.0

-6.5

-1.2

4.6

2.3

-0.8

2.9

-1.4

2.3

-2.9

3.0 1 Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2 Excludes milk sucked by calves. 3 May not add due to rounding.
Milk Production Agricultural Statistics Board

July 1999 7 NASS, USDA

Reliability Statement

Survey Procedures: Primary data used to determine these estimates were obtained from a sample of

producers. Individual States maintain a list of all known milk producers and information on the size of

their herd. States use all known sources of producers to ensure that their lists are as complete as

possible. Generally, all large producers and a sample of small producers are included in the survey. 

Questionnaires are mailed to producers near the end of the month to obtain data for the first day of the

month. Additional reports are obtained by telephone, as needed, to supplement the mail response.

Estimation Procedures: State offices prepare these estimates using survey indications, historic trends,

and any available administrative data. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural

Statistics Board for reasonableness.

Revision Policy: Milk production, rate per cow, and number of cows are subject to revision the

following month for monthly States or the following quarter for the quarterly States. Normally, Federal

Market Order sales are the main basis for revisions. However, data for all orders are not available in time

for this revision. Estimates are again subject to revisions in February each year based on additional

administrative data. In the event that additional changes are necessary, a third revision is possible in

February the following year. Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five-year Census of

Agriculture are available. No revisions are made after that date.

Reliability: Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in the sample, survey estimates are

subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions,

duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors

cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection

process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness.

To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error"

is shown for selected items on the next page. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure

based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The

"Root Mean Square Error" for milk cow inventory estimates over the past 10 quarters is 1.1 percent. 

This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final April-June estimate will not be above or below the

current estimate of 9.15 million head by more than 1.1 percent, or about 101,000 head. Chances are 9

out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 2.1 percent, or about 192,000 head (the 90 percent

confidence level).
Milk Production Agricultural Statistics Board

July 1999 8 NASS, USDA

Reliability of April-June Milk Estimates 1

Item

Root

Mean

Square

Error

90%

Confidence

Level

Difference Between

First and Latest

Estimates

Quarters

First

Above

Latest

First

Below

Average Smallest Largest Latest

Percent Percent Million Pounds Million Pounds Million Pounds Million Pounds Number Number

Milk

 Production 0.6 1.0 420 179 3 426 10 0

Percent Percent 1,000 Head 1,000 Head 1,000 Head 1,000 Head Number Number

All Milk

 Cows 1.1 2.1 192 92 11 188 8 2

1 Based on records for the past 10 April-June quarters.
The next "Milk Production" report will be released at 3 p.m. ET on August 16, 1999.

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