Da 1-1 (6-99)

Washington, D.C.

Milk

Production

Released June 15, 1999, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of

Agriculture. For information on "Milk Production" call James Hand at 202-690-3236, office hours 7:00 a.m. to 4:30 p.m. ET.

May Milk Production Up 3.5 Percent 

Milk production in the 20 major States during May totaled 12.4 billion pounds, up 3.5 percent

from production in these same States in May 1998. April revised production, at 12.0 billion

pounds, was up 3.5 percent from April 1998.

Production per cow in the 20 major States averaged 1,610 pounds for May, 54 pounds above

May 1998.

The number of cows on farms in the 20 major States was 7.72 million head, 3,000 head more

than May 1998, and 8,000 head more than April 1999.
Milk Production Agricultural Statistics Board

June 1999 2 NASS, USDA

Milk Cows and Production: By Quarter, United States, 1998-99 1

Quarter

Milk Cows 2 Milk Per Cow 3 Milk Production 3

1998 1999 1998 1999 1998 1999

Change

From

1998

1,000 Head 1,000 Head Pounds Pounds Million Pounds Million Pounds Percent

Jan-Mar

Apr-Jun

Jul-Sep

Oct-Dec

Annual

9,176

9,171

9,149

9,137

9,158

9,136 4,268

4,451

4,210

4,261

17,192

4,436 39,164

40,821

38,519

38,937

157,441

40,526 3.5

1 May not add due to rounding. 2 Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3 Excludes milk sucked by calves.

Milk Cows and Production: By Month, 20 Selected States, 1998-99

Month

Milk Cows 1 Milk Per Cow 2 Milk Production 2

1998 1999 1998 1999 1998 1999

Change

From

1998

1,000 Head 1,000 Head Pounds Pounds Million Pounds Million Pounds Percent

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Annual

7,728

7,716

7,709

7,713

7,719

7,718

7,709

7,708

7,701

7,695

7,697

7,708

7,710

7,704

7,702

7,708

7,714

7,722

1,466

1,347

1,515

1,501

1,556

1,477

1,468

1,443

1,386

1,446

1,407

1,489

17,501

1,521

1,403

1,584

1,554

1,610

11,327

10,394

11,678

11,579

12,011

11,396

11,314

11,124

10,672

11,125

10,829

11,481

134,930

11,720

10,809

12,212

11,989

12,430

3.5

4.0

4.6

3.5

3.5

1 Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2 Excludes milk sucked by calves.

Estimated Milk Production: United States, 1998-99

Month

By Month Cumulative

1998 1999

Change

From

1998

1998 1999

Change

From

1998

Million Pounds Million Pounds Percent Million Pounds Million Pounds Percent

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

13,282

12,188

13,694

13,510

14,015

13,296

13,162

12,942

12,415

12,956

12,611

13,370

13,671

12,609

14,246

13,988

14,502

2.9

3.5

4.0

3.5

3.5

13,282

25,470

39,164

52,674

66,689

79,985

93,147

106,089

118,504

131,460

144,071

157,441

13,671

26,280

40,526

54,514

69,016

2.9

3.2

3.5

3.5

3.5
Milk Production Agricultural Statistics Board

June 1999 3 NASS, USDA

Milk Cows and Production: By State, May 1998-99

Month

Milk Cows 1 Milk Per Cow 2 Milk Production 2

1998 1999 1998 1999 1998 1999

Change

From

1998

1,000 Head 1,000 Head Pounds Pounds Million Pounds Million Pounds Percent

AZ

CA

FL

ID

IL

IN

IA

KY

MI

MN

MO

NM

NY

OH

PA

TX

VT

VA

WA

WI

20-State

 Total

130

1,414

162

293

128

137

223

141

299

555

172

217

701

265

623

356

162

125

248

1,368

7,719

134

1,460

160

314

123

136

215

133

293

545

161

232

700

259

615

345

162

122

247

1,366

7,722

1,945

1,720

1,350

1,680

1,510

1,420

1,520

1,115

1,560

1,490

1,285

1,795

1,490

1,485

1,550

1,480

1,480

1,310

1,885

1,480

1,556

2,060

1,825

1,420

1,720

1,490

1,400

1,550

1,120

1,600

1,550

1,305

1,795

1,520

1,480

1,605

1,515

1,530

1,330

1,960

1,520

1,610

253

2,432

219

492

193

195

339

157

466

827

221

390

1,044

394

966

527

240

164

467

2,025

12,011

276

2,665

227

540

183

190

333

149

469

845

210

416

1,064

383

987

523

248

162

484

2,076

12,430

9.1

9.6

3.7

9.8

-5.2

-2.6

-1.8

-5.1

0.6

2.2

-5.0

6.7

1.9

-2.8

2.2

-0.8

3.3

-1.2

3.6

2.5

3.5 1 Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2 Excludes milk sucked by calves.
Milk Production Agricultural Statistics Board

June 1999 4 NASS, USDA

Milk Cows and Production: By State, April 1998-99 1

State

Milk Cows 2 Milk per Cow 3 Milk Production 3

1998 1999 1998 1999 1998 1999

Change

From

1998

1,000 Head 1,000 Head Pounds Pounds Million Pounds Million Pounds Percent

AZ

CA

FL

ID

IL

IN

IA

KY

MI

MN

MO

NM

NY

OH

PA

TX

VT

VA

WA

WI

20-State

 Total

130

1,410

162

288

129

136

223

141

298

555

173

216

700

265

624

359

162

125

249

1,368

7,713

132

1,456

160

312

124

136

215

134

294

545

161

231

700

260

615

342

162

122

248

1,365

7,714

1,885

1,640

1,375

1,620

1,490

1,410

1,465

1,135

1,495

1,435

1,305

1,720

1,420

1,470

1,530

1,490

1,405

1,320

1,790

1,395

1,501

2,070

1,770

1,430

1,640

1,430

1,340

1,500

1,110

1,540

1,495

1,305

1,740

1,460

1,420

1,545

1,545

1,445

1,320

1,870

1,435

1,554

245

2,312

223

467

192

192

327

160

446

796

226

372

994

390

955

535

228

165

446

1,908

11,579

273

2,577

229

512

177

182

323

149

453

815

210

402

1,022

369

950

528

234

161

464

1,959

11,989

11.4

11.5

2.7

9.6

-7.8

-5.2

-1.2

-6.9

1.6

2.4

-7.1

8.1

2.8

-5.4

-0.5

-1.3

2.6

-2.4

4.0

2.7

3.5 1 1999 revised. 2 Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3 Excludes milk sucked by calves.
Milk Production Agricultural Statistics Board

June 1999 5 NASS, USDA

Reliability Statement

Survey Procedures: Primary data used to determine these estimates were obtained from a sample of

producers. Individual States maintain a list of all known milk producers and information on the size of

their herd. States use all known sources of producers to ensure that their lists are as complete as

possible. Generally, all large producers and a sample of small producers are included in the survey. 

Questionnaires are mailed to producers near the end of the month to obtain data for the first day of the

month. Additional reports are obtained by telephone, as needed, to supplement the mail response.

Estimation Procedures: State offices prepare these estimates using survey indications, historic trends,

and any available administrative data. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural

Statistics Board for reasonableness.

Revision Policy: Milk production, rate per cow, and number of cows are subject to revision the

following month for monthly States or the following quarter for the quarterly States. Normally, Federal

Market Order sales are the main basis for revisions. However, data for all orders are not available in time

for this revision. Estimates are again subject to revisions in February each year based on additional

administrative data. In the event that additional changes are necessary, a third revision is possible in

February the following year. Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five-year Census of

Agriculture are available. No revisions are made after that date.

Reliability: Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in the sample, survey estimates are

subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions,

duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors

cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection

process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness.

To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error"

is shown for selected items on the next page. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure

based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The

"Root Mean Square Error" for milk cow inventory estimates over the past 10 quarters is 1.1 percent. 

This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final January-March estimate will not be above or below

the current estimate of 9.14 million head by more than 1.1 percent, or about 100,000 head. Chances are

9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 2.0 percent, or about 183,000 head (the 90 percent

confidence level).
Milk Production Agricultural Statistics Board

June 1999 6 NASS, USDA

Reliability of January-March Milk Estimates 1

Item

Root

Mean

Square

Error

90%

Confidence

Level

Difference Between

First and Latest

Estimates

Quarters

First

Above

Latest

First

Below

Average Smallest Largest Latest

Percent Percent Million Pounds Million Pounds Million Pounds Million Pounds Number Number

Milk

 Production 0.5 0.9 365 170 47 315 8 2

Percent Percent 1,000 Head 1,000 Head 1,000 Head 1,000 Head Number Number

All Milk

 Cows 1.1 2.0 183 89 2 187 8 2

1 Based on records for the past 10 January-March quarters.
The next "Milk Production" report will be released at 3 p.m. ET on July 15, 1999.

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination in all its programs on the

basis of race, color, national origin, gender, religion, age, disability, political beliefs, sexual orientation,

and marital or family status. (Not all prohibited bases apply to all programs.) Persons with disabilities

who require alternative means for communication of program information (braille, large print, audiotape,

etc.) should contact the USDA’s TARGET Center at 202-720-2600 (voice and TDD).

To file a complaint of discrimination, write USDA, Director, Office of Civil Rights, Room 326-W,

Whitten Building, 14th and Independence Avenue, SW, Washington, D.C., 20250-9410, or call

202-720-5964 (voice or TDD). USDA is an equal opportunity provider and employer.

ACCESS TO REPORTS!!

For your convenience, there are several ways to obtain NASS reports, data products, and services:

INTERNET ACCESS

All NASS reports are available free of charge on the worldwide Internet. For access, connect to the

Internet and go to the NASS Home Page at: http://www.usda.gov/nass/. Select “Today’s Reports” or

Publications and then Reports by Calendar or Publications and then Search, by Title or Subject.

E-MAIL SUBSCRIPTION

All NASS reports are available by subscription free of charge direct to your e-mail address. Send an email message to: usda-reports@usda.mannlib.cornell.edu. In the body of the message type the word: 

list.

AUTOFAX ACCESS

NASSFax service is available for some reports from your fax machine. Please call 202-720-2000, using

the handset attached to your fax. Respond to the voice prompts. Document 0411 is a list of available

reports.

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

PRINTED REPORTS OR DATA PRODUCTS

CALL OUR TOLL-FREE ORDER DESK: 800-999-6779 (U.S. and Canada)

Other areas, please call 703-834-0125 FAX: 703-834-0110

(Visa, MasterCard, check, or money order acceptable for payment.) 

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

ASSISTANCE

For assistance with general agricultural statistics or further information about NASS or its products or

services, contact the Agricultural Statistics Hotline at 800-727-9540, 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET, or

e-mail: nass@nass.usda.gov.