HDR1012000110080314961500POTATO STOCKS                                          
Released March 14, 1996, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS),
Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture.  For information 
on "Potato Stocks" call Arvin Budge at (202) 720-4285, office hours 8:00 a.m. to
4:30 p.m. ET.  For assistance with general agricultural statistics, information 
about NASS, its products or services, contact the NASS Information Hotline at   
1-800-727-9540 or E-mail: NASS@NASS.USDA.GOV.                                   
                                                                                
                  Potato Stocks Down 10 Percent                                 
                                                                                
Potato stocks totaled 152 million cwt on the first of March 1996, down 10 per-  
cent from a year ago and 1 percent below two years ago.  Disappearance, at      
239 million cwt, was a little short of last year's record high 240 million cwt  
but was 8 percent above two years ago.  Shrink and loss of 25.6 million cwt was 
2 percent less  than a year ago.  Processor usage, at 121 million cwt, was up   
3 percent for the season.  February usage was up slightly from the same month   
last year.                                                                      
                                                                                
Pot 1-2 (3-96)                                                                  
                                                                                
                                                                                
         Fall Potatoes:  Production and Stocks, 15 Major States, 1986-95        
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   Crop  :          :         :         :         :         :         :         
   Year  :Production:  Dec 1  :  Jan 1  :  Feb 1  :  Mar 1  :  Apr 1  :  May 1  
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         :                              1,000 Cwt                               
         :                                                                      
1986     : 307,928    209,435   180,915   154,545   128,720    95,090   59,790  
1987     : 335,607    225,890   196,760   167,325   138,800   105,905   70,030  
1988     : 305,623    206,420   177,750   151,050   124,485    92,585   59,355  
1989     : 316,097    202,050   173,550   144,290   116,600    84,320   50,675  
1990     : 344,200    225,500   194,460   162,850   134,470   101,150   63,040  
1991     : 363,541    242,070   211,005   178,515   145,820   108,865   69,110  
1992     : 368,516    246,820   215,990   184,560   152,795   115,785   75,040  
1993     : 375,004    249,710   217,800   186,090   154,135   115,970   73,860  
1994     : 409,009    271,890   237,560   201,870   168,770   128,825   87,500  
1995     : 391,816    252,080   218,970   184,755   152,255                     
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        Potatoes:  Quantity Used for Processing, Eight States, 1993-95 1/       
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     State and     :        :        :        :       :       :       :         
     Crop Year     : Dec 1  : Jan 1  : Feb 1  : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 : Season  
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                   :                         1,000 Cwt                          
                   :                                                            
ID & OR-Malheur Co :                                                            
  1993             : 24,090   30,540   37,150   44,720  53,070  61,440   85,780 
  1994             : 26,620   34,230   42,330   49,890  57,990  66,680   90,300 
  1995             : 27,310   35,040   43,260   51,530                          
                   :                                                            
ME 2/              :                                                            
  1993             :  1,350    1,720    2,210    2,505   2,890   3,275    4,555 
  1994             :  1,505    1,840    2,265    2,540   2,985   3,330    4,770 
  1995             :  1,335    1,685    2,200    2,540                          
                   :                                                            
WA & OR - Other    :                                                            
  1993             : 28,260   33,350   39,010   45,020  51,290  57,180   70,690 
  1994             : 28,670   33,480   39,120   46,070  52,940  59,540   76,780 
  1995             : 30,000   35,170   39,460   45,280                          
                   :                                                            
Oth Sts 3/         :                                                            
  1993             :  7,605    9,515   11,605   13,720  16,080  18,705   25,690 
  1994             :  9,725   13,110   15,630   18,260  21,115  24,060   32,260 
  1995             : 12,360   15,330   18,415   21,485                          
                   :                                                            
Total              :                                                            
  1993             : 61,305   75,125   89,975  105,965 123,330 140,600  186,715 
  1994             : 66,520   82,660   99,345  116,760 135,030 153,610  204,110 
  1995             : 71,005   87,225  103,335  120,835                          
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1/  Total quantity received and used for processing regardless of the State in  
    which the potatoes were produced.  Amount excludes quantities used for      
    potato chips in ME, MI, MN, ND, and WI.                                     
2/  Includes Maine grown potatoes only.                                         
3/  MI, MN, ND, and WI.                                                         
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
            Fall Potatoes:  Production and Stocks on March 1, 1995-96 1/        
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               :          Crop of 1994          :         Crop of 1995          
               :----------------------------------------------------------------
     State     :          :  Stocks  :    %     :          :  Stocks  :    %    
               :   Prod   :  Mar 1,  :    of    :   Prod   :  Mar 1,  :   of    
               :          :   1995   :   Prod   :          :   1996   :  Prod   
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
               : ---- 1,000 Cwt ---      Pct      ---- 1,000 Cwt ---      Pct   
               :                                                                
CA             :   5,600      2,700       48        5,330      2,100      39    
CO             :  25,795     11,300       44       23,808     11,200      47    
ID             : 138,801     68,000       49      131,274     61,500      47    
ME             :  18,375      7,700       42       17,160      8,500      50    
MI             :  12,180      3,800       31       16,500      5,000      30    
MN             :  17,755      8,000       45       20,790      8,700      42    
MT             :   3,200      2,730       85        2,940      2,600      88    
NE             :   3,996      1,420       36        3,680    2/1,355            
NY             :   7,805      2/920                 7,695      1,400      18    
ND             :  28,200     10,400       37       25,410      9,200      36    
OH             :   1,348         2/                 1,404         2/            
OR             :  27,514     13,000       47       23,760      8,600      36    
PA             :   3,780        700       19        4,080        800      20    
WA             :  88,920     30,500       34       80,850     24,000      30    
WI             :  25,740      7,600       30       27,135      7,300      27    
               :                                                                
Total 15 State : 409,009    168,770       41      391,816    152,255      39    
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1/  Stocks include processor holdings and seed to plant 1996 crop.  1995 crop   
    seed usage totaled 29.3 million cwt.                                        
2/  Combined to prevent possible disclosure of individual operations.           
                                                                                
                                                                                
                 Potato Stocks Down 10 Percent                                  
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
Potato stocks totaled 152 million cwt on March 1, 1996, down 10  percent from   
last year and 1 percent below two years ago.  Stocks now are 39 percent of fall 
potato production in the 15 storage States, down two points from last year.     
Disappearance for the season was 239 million cwt, down slightly from last year  
and 8 percent above two years ago.  Processors used 121 million cwt, up 3       
percent.                                                                        
                                                                                
                                                                                
Disappearance from harvest through February totaled 239 million cwt of potatoes,
down slightly from last year but 8 percent above two years ago.  February       
disappearance of 32.5 million was down 2 percent from a year ago.  Shrinkage and
loss to date was 25.6 million cwt, down 2 percent from the 26.2 million cwt lost
last year but 3 percent above  24.9 million cwt lost two years ago.             
                                                                                
                                                                                
Processor usage totaled 121 million cwt to March 1, 1996, up 3 percent from a   
year ago and 14 percent above two years ago.  February processing of 17.5       
million cwt of potatoes was up slightly from last year and 9 percent above 1994.
Heavy processor use in Central States made up for slow-downs in the Northwest.  
                                                                                
                                                                                
Eastern States stored 10.7 million cwt of potatoes this year, up 16 percent from
last year and 10 percent above 1994.  Maine's stocks were up 10 percent and     
Pennsylvania's were up 14 percent.  New York stocks rose more than half.  Heavy 
U.S. imports from Canada resulted in slow movement from eastern storages.       
                                                                                
                                                                                
Central States accounted for 31.6 million cwt of potato stocks this March, up 1 
percent from last year and 25 percent above two years ago.  Michigan and        
Minnesota, with new areas measuring stocks, are up 32 and 9 percent,            
respectively.  North Dakota's stocks were down 12 percent and Wisconsin's were  
off 4 percent from a year ago.  Nebraska's stocks were down 6 percent.          
                                                                                
                                                                                
Western States held 110 million cwt of potatoes in storage on March 1, 1996.    
This is down 14 percent from last year and 8 percent below two years ago.       
Idaho's stocks were off 10 percent and accounted for 56 percent of the Western  
total.  Oregon's stocks were down 34 percent and Washington was 21 percent below
a year earlier.  Colorado's stocks were down 1 percent from last year and       
California's storage was off 22 percent.  Montana's stocks, mainly seed, were   
down 5 percent.                                                                 
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
              Reliability of March 1 Stocks Estimate                            
                                                                                
                                                                                
The "Root Mean Square Error" for the March 1 stocks estimate is 4.0 percent.    
This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current estimate of 152 million 
cwt will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 4.0 percent or   
approximately 6.1 million cwt.  Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence  
level) that the difference will not exceed 6.9 percent or approximately 10.5    
million cwt.                                                                    
                                                                                
The 10-year (1985-1994) record of the differences between the March 1 stocks    
estimates and the final estimates averaged 4.7 million cwt, ranging from 0.4    
million to 13.1 million cwt.  During the 10-year period, the March 1 estimate   
has been below the final estimate 9 out of 10 years.                            
                                                                                
                                                                                
            Fall Potato Stocks:  Preliminary and Final March Stocks,            
                             United States, 1985-95                             
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   Crop   :      Preliminary      :        % of         :         Final         
   Year   :        Stocks         :        Final        :       Stocks 1/       
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          :       1,000 Cwt               Percent               1,000 Cwt       
          :                                                                     
1985      :        137,420                  99.1                 138,720        
1986      :        124,820                  97.0                 128,720        
1987      :        137,950                  99.4                 138,800        
1988      :        118,960                  95.6                 124,485        
1989      :        115,780                  99.3                 116,600        
1990      :        126,030                  93.7                 134,470        
1991      :        146,180                 100.2                 145,820        
1992      :        139,665                  91.4                 152,795        
1993      :        146,080                  94.8                 154,135        
1994      :        163,305                  96.8                 168,770        
1995      :        152,255                                                      
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1/  As reported in the September "Potato" annual report.                        
                                                                                
                                                                                
Note:  Stocks are defined as the quantity (whether sold or not) remaining in    
       storage for all purposes and uses, including seed potatoes not yet moved 
       and shrinkage, waste, and other losses that occur after the date of each 
       report.  Sales of fall potatoes for all purposes for the past 5 years    
       averaged 91.0 percent of the total fall production Shrinkage, loss and   
       home use account for the remaining 9.0 percent.  Most seed for use the   
       following year is on hand but remains as part of stocks until planted.   
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
The next "Potato Stocks" report will be released at 3 p.m. ET on April 12, 1996.
                                                                                
                                                                                
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