|**2000 California Walnut
Objective Measurement Survey Report**
Released: September 1, 2000
|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

**WALNUT PRODUCTION FORECAST**
The 2000 California walnut production is forecast at 245,000 tons, down 13 percent from 1999's production of 283,000
tons. This forecast is based on the Walnut Objective Measurement Survey. The Objective Measurement Survey was
conducted August 1 through August 23, 2000. Hot weather in early August may have lowered quality. Harvest is just
beginning in parts of Tulare County.
The 2000 Objective Measurement Survey utilized a total of 663 blocks with two sample trees per block. Survey data
indicated an average nut set of 1,483, down 13 percent from 1999's average of 1,709. The Hartley nut set was down 16
percent; Serr, down 10 percent; Franquette, down 33 percent; Chandler, down 21 percent from 1999. Percent of sound
kernels in-shell was 96.9 percent Statewide. In-shell weight per nut was 21.2 grams, while the average in-shell suture
measurement was 32.2 millimeters. The average length in-shell was 38.2 millimeters.
Estimated nut sets, sizing measurements, average number of trees per acre, and estimated bearing acreage were used in the
regression formulas.California Walnuts Sept. Objective Forecast vs. Final Production**SURVEY HISTORY**
The Walnut Objective Measurement Survey began in 1958 to fulfill industry needs for an accurate walnut production
forecast prior to harvest. The original sample was chosen proportionally to county and variety of bearing acreage. With
each succeeding year, additions and deletions have been made in the sample to adjust for acreage removed, new bearing
acreage and refusals.**SAMPLING PROCEDURES**
Once a block is randomly selected and permission is granted, two trees are randomly selected. An accessible branch is
chosen which is 5 to 15 percent of the total cross-sectional area of the primary limbs and reachable with a twelve-foot
ladder. Measurements are made on the trunk, each primary, and each split leading to and including the accessible branch.
The sample tree and accessible branch are marked by a single tag.
On the accessible branch, every first of five nuts is picked for use in size and grade determinations. If available, at least ten
nuts are harvested from the accessible branch for this purpose.
The following measurements are made on nuts selected for sizing:
1.    Weight of nut including hull.
2.    Width of shell at suture.
3.    Width of shell 90 degrees to suture line (cross-suture).
4.    Length of shell.
5.    Kernel grade.
6.    Weight of nut in-shell.**DATA RELIABILITY**
The 80 percent confidence interval is from 224,000 tons to 266,000 tons. This means there is an 80 percent chance the 2000
production will fall within this range.

|**TABLE 1 -- California English Walnut Acreage, Production, Price And Value In-Shell**                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          
|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|Year                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            
|Tons                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            
|1987                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            
|1988                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            
|1989                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            
|1990                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            
|1991                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            
|1992                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            
|1993                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            
|1994                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            
|1995                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            
|1996                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            
|1997                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            
|1998                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            
|1999 b/                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         
|2000 c/                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         
|*a/    Bearing years include plantings of the following: Chandler, Chico, Howard, Tulare (1995 & Earlier);
       50-55, 59-124, 4946, Amigo, Ashley, Bardoni, Cisco, Earhorn, Grove, Gustine, Honeycutt, Houston,
       Jensen, Lompoc, Marchetti, Nuggett, Payne, Pedro, Serr, Sunland, Tehama, Trinta, UCD 67-13, Vina,
       Westside (1994 and Earlier); Franquette, Franquette Scharsch, Mayette, Placentia, Poe,
       Willsons/Willsons Wonder, Woodland (1992 & Earlier); all other varieties not specified (1993 & Earlier).b/    Price Per Ton and Total Value are July 1, 2000 preliminary data.c/    Price Per Ton and Total Value preliminary data will be released July 2001.*

1999 Walnut Bearing Acres by Variety**NOTE:**  Pie chart percentages are based on the sum of grower acreage reported and do not add to 100 due to rounding.

|**TABLE 2 -- Walnut Objective Measurement Survey Data, By District**                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|Measurement                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      
|In-Shell Weight
(gm)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
|                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 
|                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 
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|                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 
|                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 
|In-Shell Width
(mm)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              
|                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 
|                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 
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|                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 
|                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 
|In-Shell
Cross-Width (mm)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        
|                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 
|                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 
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|                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 
|In-Shell Length
(mm)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
|                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 
|                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 
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|                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 
|                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 
|Kernel Grade -
Percent Sound                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     
|                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 
|                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 
|                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 
|                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 
|                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 
|                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 
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|                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 
|Nuts Set Per Tree                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                
|                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 
|                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 
|                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 
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|                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 
|                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 
|*1/    Coast includes: Contra Costa, Lake, Monterey, Napa, San Benito, San Luis Obispo, Santa Clara, and
       Sonoma counties.2/    Sacramento Valley includes: Butte, Colusa, El Dorado, Glenn, Sacramento, Solano, Sutter, Tehama,
       Yolo, and Yuba counties.3/    San Joaquin Valley includes: Fresno, Kern, Kings, Madera, Merced, San Joaquin, Stanislaus, and 
       Tulare counties.4/    District and State averages are derived by weighting county averages by county bearing acreage figures.*

|**TABLE 3 -- Walnut Objective Measurement Survey Data, By Variety**
|-------------------------------------------------------------------
|Measurement                                                        
|In-Shell
Weight
(gm)                                               
|                                                                   
|                                                                   
|                                                                   
|                                                                   
|                                                                   
|                                                                   
|                                                                   
|                                                                   
|                                                                   
|                                                                   
|                                                                   
|In-Shell
Width
(mm)                                                
|                                                                   
|                                                                   
|                                                                   
|                                                                   
|                                                                   
|                                                                   
|                                                                   
|                                                                   
|                                                                   
|                                                                   
|                                                                   
|In-Shell
Cross-Width
(mm)                                          
|                                                                   
|                                                                   
|                                                                   
|                                                                   
|                                                                   
|                                                                   
|                                                                   
|                                                                   
|                                                                   
|                                                                   
|                                                                   
|In-Shell
Length
(mm)                                               
|                                                                   
|                                                                   
|                                                                   
|                                                                   
|                                                                   
|                                                                   
|                                                                   
|                                                                   
|                                                                   
|                                                                   
|                                                                   
|Kernel
Grade -                                                     
|Percent
Sound                                                      
|                                                                   
|                                                                   
|                                                                   
|                                                                   
|                                                                   
|                                                                   
|                                                                   
|                                                                   
|                                                                   
|                                                                   
|Nuts Set
Per Tree                                                  
|                                                                   
|                                                                   
|                                                                   
|                                                                   
|                                                                   
|                                                                   
|                                                                   
|                                                                   
|                                                                   
|                                                                   
|                                                                   

|**TABLE 4 -- Percentage Distribution Of Walnut Shell Suture Sizes, By District And Variety**                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            
|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|District
And
Variety                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    
|1996                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    
|Mth                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     
|                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        
|**DISTRICTS:**                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          
|Coast                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   
|Sacramento
Valley                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       
|San
Joaquin
Valley                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      
|**VARIETIES:**                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          
|Ashley                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  
|Chandler                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                
|Eureka                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  
|Franquette                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              
|Hartley                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 
|Payne                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   
|Serr                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    
|Tehama                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  
|Vina                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    
|Other                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   
|STATE                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   
|Number
of
Shells
Measured                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               
|*1/    Sizes used are as follows: Mammoth -- Larger than 96/64" in diameter; Jumbo -- 80/64" to 96/64";
       Large -- 76/64" to 80/64" for Eureka variety, 77/64" to 80/64" for all other varieties; 
       Medium -- 73/64" to 76/64" for Eureka, 73/64" to 77/64" for all others; Baby -- 60/64" to 73/64";
       and Others -- below 60/64".2/    Percentage distributions based upon nut samples taken in the field, may not equal 100 percent due to rounding.*

|***The California Walnut Industry has been very supportive.
We appreciate your continued cooperation!***
|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------



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