Milk                                                                            
Production                                                                      
                                                                                
     National                                                                   
     Agricultural                                                               
     Statistics                                                                 
     Service                                                                    
                                                                                
USDA                                                                            
Washington, D.C.                                                                
                                                                                
Released November 14, 1997, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service     
(NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture.  For     
information on "Milk Production" call James Hand at 202-690-3236, office hours  
7:00 a.m. to 4:30 p.m. ET.                                                      
                                                                                
                                                                                
             October Milk Production Up 1.8 Percent                             
                                                                                
Milk production in the 20 major States during October totaled 11.0 billion      
pounds, up 1.8 percent from production in these same States in October 1996.    
September revised production, at 10.7 billion pounds was up 2.2 percent from    
September 1996.                                                                 
                                                                                
                                                                                
Production per cow in the 20 major States averaged 1,426 pounds for October,    
35 pounds above October 1996.                                                   
                                                                                
                                                                                
The number of cows on farms in the 20 major States was 7.74 million head,       
51,000 head less than October 1996 but 1,000 head more than September 1997.     
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
          Milk Cows and Production:  By Quarter, United States, 1996-97         
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          :   Milk Cows 1/    :  Milk Per Cow 2/  :     Milk Production 2/      
          :---------------------------------------------------------------------
  Quarter :         :         :         :         :         :         : Change  
          :  1996   :  1997   :  1996   :  1997   :  1996   :  1997   :  From   
          :         :         :         :         :         :         :  1996   
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          :  ---- 1,000 ----    ---- Pounds ----     Million Pounds     Percent 
          :                                                                     
Jan-Mar   :  9,397     9,267     4,156     4,200     39,053   38,922     -0.3   
Apr-Jun   :  9,369     9,254     4,231     4,393     39,638   40,648      2.5   
Jul-Sep   :  9,338     9,245     4,035     4,209     37,674   38,917      3.3   
Oct-Dec   :  9,300               4,083               37,966                     
          :                                                                     
Annual    :  9,351              16,505              154,331                     
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/  Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh.                          
2/  Excludes milk sucked by calves.                                             
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
        Milk Cows and Production:  By Month, 20 Selected States, 1996-97        
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          :   Milk Cows 1/    :  Milk Per Cow 2/  :     Milk Production 2/      
          :---------------------------------------------------------------------
   Month  :         :         :         :         :         :         : Change  
          :  1996   :  1997   :  1996   :  1997   :  1996   :  1997   :  From   
          :         :         :         :         :         :         :  1996   
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          :  ---- 1,000 ----    ---- Pounds ----     Million Pounds     Percent 
          :                                                                     
Jan       :  7,846     7,757     1,415     1,439     11,103   11,163      0.5   
Feb       :  7,828     7,743     1,348     1,331     10,549   10,309     -2.3   
Mar       :  7,822     7,736     1,469     1,501     11,487   11,611      1.1   
Apr       :  7,818     7,731     1,441     1,481     11,265   11,452      1.7   
May       :  7,816     7,733     1,479     1,532     11,560   11,847      2.5   
Jun       :  7,818     7,738     1,398     1,475     10,926   11,410      4.4   
Jul       :  7,815     7,747     1,400     1,477     10,944   11,443      4.6   
Aug       :  7,802     7,744     1,382     1,450     10,786   11,227      4.1   
Sep       :  7,795     7,736     1,342     1,381     10,459   10,686      2.2   
Oct       :  7,788     7,737     1,391     1,426     10,831   11,030      1.8   
Nov       :  7,775               1,350               10,499                     
Dec       :  7,765               1,418               11,013                     
          :                                                                     
Annual    :  7,807              16,833              131,422                     
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/  Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh.                          
2/  Excludes milk sucked by calves.                                             
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
               Estimated Milk Production:  United States, 1996-97               
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
            :             By Month             :           Cumulative           
            :-------------------------------------------------------------------
    Month   :         :           :   Change   :         :         :   Change   
            :  1996   :   1997    :    From    :  1996   :  1997   :    From    
            :         :           :    1996    :         :         :    1996    
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
            :   Million Pounds       Percent       Million Pounds     Percent   
            :                                                                   
Jan         : 13,085     13,133         0.4       13,085    13,133       0.4    
Feb         : 12,431     12,129        -2.4       25,516    25,262      -1.0    
Mar         : 13,537     13,660         0.9       39,053    38,922      -0.3    
Apr         : 13,230     13,411         1.4       52,283    52,333       0.1    
May         : 13,576     13,874         2.2       65,859    66,207       0.5    
Jun         : 12,832     13,363         4.1       78,691    79,570       1.1    
Jul         : 12,809     13,346         4.2       91,500    92,916       1.5    
Aug         : 12,624     13,095         3.7      104,124   106,011       1.8    
Sep         : 12,241     12,471         1.9      116,365   118,482       1.8    
Oct         : 12,714     12,948         1.8      129,079   131,430       1.8    
Nov         : 12,324                             141,403                        
Dec         : 12,928                             154,331                        
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
              Milk Cows and Production:  By State, October 1996-97              
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          :   Milk Cows 1/    :  Milk Per Cow 2/  :     Milk Production 2/      
          :---------------------------------------------------------------------
   Month  :         :         :         :         :         :         : Change  
          :  1996   :  1997   :  1996   :  1997   :  1996   :  1997   :  From   
          :         :         :         :         :         :         :  1996   
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          :  ---- 1,000 ----     ---- Pounds ---     Million Pounds     Percent 
          :                                                                     
AZ        :    122       126     1,620     1,595       198       201      1.5   
CA        :  1,268     1,314     1,750     1,790     2,219     2,352      6.0   
FL        :    156       160     1,160     1,095       181       175     -3.3   
ID        :    265       280     1,580     1,620       419       454      8.4   
IL        :    152       146     1,230     1,280       187       187      0.0   
IN        :    140       140     1,280     1,310       179       183      2.2   
IA        :    250       244     1,280     1,370       320       334      4.4   
KY        :    151       143     1,020     1,050       154       150     -2.6   
MI        :    317       303     1,415     1,460       449       442     -1.6   
MN        :    595       580     1,275     1,285       759       745     -1.8   
MO        :    175       170     1,105     1,090       193       185     -4.1   
NM        :    195       205     1,570     1,615       306       331      8.2   
NY        :    702       699     1,325     1,350       930       944      1.5   
OH        :    285       275     1,250     1,290       356       355     -0.3   
PA        :    645       640     1,345     1,395       868       893      2.9   
TX        :    395       387     1,185     1,150       468       445     -4.9   
VT        :    155       155     1,375     1,400       213       217      1.9   
VA        :    126       120     1,200     1,290       151       155      2.6   
WA        :    266       262     1,675     1,665       446       436     -2.2   
WI        :  1,428     1,388     1,285     1,330     1,835     1,846      0.6   
          :                                                                     
20-State  :                                                                     
 Total    :  7,788     7,737     1,391     1,426    10,831    11,030      1.8   
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/  Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh.                          
2/  Excludes milk sucked by calves.                                             
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
            Milk Cows and Production:  By State, September 1996-97 1/           
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          :   Milk Cows 2/    :  Milk per Cow 3/  :     Milk Production 3/      
          :---------------------------------------------------------------------
   State  :         :         :         :         :         :         : Change  
          :  1996   :  1997   :  1996   :  1997   :  1996   :  1997   :  From   
          :         :         :         :         :         :         :  1996   
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          :  ---- 1,000 ----     ---- Pounds ---     Million Pounds     Percent 
          :                                                                     
AZ        :    122       126     1,475     1,429       180       180      0.0   
CA        :  1,267     1,308     1,685     1,735     2,135     2,269      6.3   
FL        :    155       160     1,045     1,000       162       160     -1.2   
ID        :    263       279     1,550     1,590       408       444      8.8   
IL        :    153       146     1,220     1,270       187       185     -1.1   
IN        :    140       140     1,250     1,275       175       179      2.3   
IA        :    250       245     1,250     1,345       313       330      5.4   
KY        :    151       144       965       985       146       142     -2.7   
MI        :    317       304     1,365     1,430       433       435      0.5   
MN        :    600       580     1,220     1,235       732       716     -2.2   
MO        :    175       170     1,050     1,040       184       177     -3.8   
NM        :    195       205     1,505     1,545       293       317      8.2   
NY        :    703       697     1,300     1,330       914       927      1.4   
OH        :    285       277     1,190     1,230       339       341      0.6   
PA        :    642       639     1,305     1,350       838       863      3.0   
TX        :    395       388     1,090     1,050       431       407     -5.6   
VT        :    156       156     1,325     1,370       207       214      3.4   
VA        :    126       120     1,140     1,240       144       149      3.5   
WA        :    265       262     1,650     1,640       437       430     -1.6   
WI        :  1,435     1,390     1,255     1,310     1,801     1,821      1.1   
          :                                                                     
20-State  :                                                                     
 Total    :  7,795     7,736     1,342     1,381    10,459    10,686      2.2   
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/  1997 revised.                                                               
2/  Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh.                          
3/  Excludes milk sucked by calves.                                             
                                                                                
                                                                                
                       Reliability Statement                                    
                                                                                
Survey Procedures:  Primary data used to determine these estimates were         
obtained from a sample of producers.  Individual States maintain a list of all  
known milk producers and information on the size of their herd.  States use     
all known sources of producers to ensure that their lists are as complete as    
possible. Generally, all large producers and a sample of small producers are    
included in the survey.  Questionnaires are mailed to producers near the end    
of the month to obtain data for the first day of the month.  Additional         
reports are obtained by telephone, as needed, to supplement the mail response.  
                                                                                
                                                                                
Estimation Procedures:  State offices prepare these estimates using survey      
indications, historic trends, and any available administrative data.            
Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board    
for reasonableness.                                                             
                                                                                
                                                                                
Revision Policy:  Milk production, rate per cow, and number of cows are         
subject to revision the following month for monthly States or the following     
quarter for the quarterly States.  Normally, Federal Market Order sales are     
the main basis for revisions. However, data for all orders are not available    
in time for this revision.  Estimates are again subject to revisions in         
February each year based on additional administrative data.  In the event that  
additional changes are necessary, a third revision is possible in February the  
following year. Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five-year      
Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions are made after that date.     
                                                                                
                                                                                
Reliability:  Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in the   
sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results    
are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and    
mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of       
these errors cannot be measured directly.  They are minimized through rigid     
quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review    
of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness.                        
                                                                                
                                                                                
To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report,  
the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items on the next page. The  
"Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance     
and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates.  The   
"Root Mean Square Error" for milk cow inventory estimates over the past 10      
quarters is 1.3 percent.  This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the       
final July-September estimate will not be above or below the current estimate   
of 9.25 million head by more than 1.3 percent, or about 120,000 head.  Chances  
are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 2.3 percent, or about       
213,000 head (the 90 percent confidence level).                                 
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                Reliability of July-September  Milk Estimates 1/                
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             :        :      90%       :   Difference Between   :               
             :        :   Confidence   :    First and Final     :   Number of   
             :  Root  :     Level      :      Estimates 1/      :   Quarters    
     Item    :  Mean  :---------------------------------------------------------
             : Square :       :        :       :        :       : First : First 
             : Error  :Percent:Estimate:Average:Smallest:Largest: Above : Below 
             :        :       :        :       :        :       : Final : Final 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             :     Percent       ------- Million Pounds ------       Number     
             :                                                                  
Milk         :                                                                  
  Production :  0.7      1.4     546      255     139      456     10       0   
             :     Percent       --------- 1,000 Head --------       Number     
             :                                                                  
All Milk     :                                                                  
  Cows       :  1.3      2.3     213      109       7      179     10       0   
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/  Based on records for the past 10 July-September quarters.                   
                                                                                
The next "Milk Production" report will be released at 3 p.m. ET on              
December 15, 1997.                                                              
                                                                                
                                                                                
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                USDA Announces Data Users Meeting                               
                Embassy Suites (near KCI Airport)                               
                      Kansas City, Missouri                                     
                         January 7, 1998                                        
                                                                                
The National Agricultural Statistics Service will be organizing                 
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          USDA Announces Agricultural Outlook Forum  98                         
                     February 23 and 24, 1998                                   
                         Washington, D.C.                                       
         Presented by the U.S. Department of Agriculture                        
                                                                                
Survey the New Frontiers.                                                       
Survey the frontiers of agriculture at USDA's seventy-fourth                    
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