1999 California

Walnut Objective

Measurement Survey Results

Released: September 3, 1999

 12:00 NOON PDT

 CALIFORNIA AGRICULTURAL

 STATISTICS SERVICE

WALNUT PRODUCTION FORECAST

The 1999 California walnut production is forecast at a record

high 280,000 tons, up 23 percent from 1998's production of

227,000 tons. This forecast is based on the Walnut Objective

Measurement Survey. The Objective Measurement Survey

was conducted August 1 through August 22, 1999. Due to a

cool spring, the crop is about two weeks behind normal. The

early and mid-season varieties look to be about average,

while the late varieties, such as Hartley and Chandler, look to

be very strong this season. Quality is expected to be

excellent, with very little damage.

The 1999 Objective Measurement Survey utilized a total of

640 blocks with two sample trees per block. Survey data

indicated an average nut set of 1,709, up 21 percent from

1998's average of 1,407. The Hartley nut set was up 54

percent; Serr, down 39 percent; Franquette, up 86 percent;

Chandler, up 18 percent from 1998. Percent of sound kernels

in-shell was a record high 97.9 percent Statewide. In-shell

weight per nut was 23.0 grams, while the average in-shell

suture measurement was 32.2 millimeters. The average

length in-shell was 39.4 millimeters.

Estimated nut sets, sizing measurements, average number of

trees per acre, and estimated bearing acreage were used in

the regression formulas.

SURVEY HISTORY

The Walnut Objective Measurement Survey began in 1958 to

fulfill industry needs for an accurate walnut production

forecast prior to harvest. The original sample was chosen

proportionally to county and variety of bearing acreage. With

each succeeding year, additions and deletions have been

made in the sample to adjust for acreage removed, new

bearing acreage and refusals.

SAMPLING PROCEDURES

Once a block is randomly selected and permission is granted,

two trees are randomly selected. An accessible branch is

chosen which is 5 to 15 percent of the total cross-sectional

area of the primary limbs and reachable with a twelve-foot

ladder. Measurements are made on the trunk, each primary,

and each split leading to and including the accessible branch.

The sample tree and accessible branch are marked by a

single tag.

On the accessible branch, every first of five nuts is picked for

use in size and grade determinations. If available, at least ten

nuts are harvested from the accessible branch for this

purpose.

The following measurements are made on nuts selected for

sizing:

1. Weight of nut including hull.

2. Width of shell at suture.

3. Width of shell 90 degrees to suture line (cross-suture).

4. Length of shell.

5. Kernel grade.

6. Weight of nut in-shell.

DATA RELIABILITY

The 80 percent confidence interval is from 260,000 tons to

300,000 tons. This means there is an 80 percent chance the

1999 production will fall within this range.
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TABLE 1 -- California English Walnut Acreage, Production, Price And Value In-Shell

Year Bearing Acres a/ Total Production Per Bearing Acre Price Per Ton Total Value

- - Tons - - - - Dollars - -

1987 176,000 247,000 1.40 984.00 243,048,000

1988 177,000 209,000 1.18 922.00 192,698,000

1989 179,000 229,000 1.28 1,070.00 245,030,000

1990 181,000 227,000 1.25 1,040.00 236,080,000

1991 181,000 259,000 1.43 1,060.00 274,540,000

1992 178,000 203,000 1.14 1,410.00 286,230,000

1993 185,000 260,000 1.41 1,390.00 361,400,000

1994 189,000 232,000 1.23 1,030.00 238,960,000

1995 193,000 234,000 1.21 1,400.00 327,600,000

1996 192,000 208,000 1.08 1,580.00 328,640,000

1997 193,000 269,000 1.39 1,430.00 384,670,000

1998 b/ 193,000 227,000 1.18 1,010.00 229,270,000

1999 193,000 280,000 1.45 7/2000 7/2000

a/ Bearing years include plantings of the following: Chandler, Chico, Howard, Tulare (1995 & Earlier); 50-55, 59-124, 4946, Amigo, Ashley,

Bardoni, Cisco, Earhorn, Grove, Gustine, Honeycutt, Houston, Jensen, Lompoc, Marchetti, Nuggett, Payne, Pedro, Serr, Sunland, Tehama,

Trinta, UCD 67-13, Vina, Westside (1994 and Earlier); Franquette, Franquette Scharsch, Mayette, Placentia, Poe, Willsons/Willsons Wonder,

Woodland (1992 & Earlier); all other varieties not specified (1993 & Earlier).

b/ Price Per Ton and Total Value are July 1, 1999 preliminary figures.

NOTE: Pie chart percentages are based on the sum of grower acreage reported and do not add to 100 due to rounding.
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TABLE 2 -- Walnut Objective Measurement Survey Data, By District

Measurement Year Coast 1/ Sacramento Valley 2/ San Joaquin Valley 3/ State 4/

In-Shell Weight (gm) 1988 20.6 22.0 20.5 21.2

1989 19.7 22.0 21.4 21.5

1990 21.3 21.8 21.9 21.8

1991 20.7 22.1 19.6 20.8

1992 21.4 23.8 21.6 22.7

1993 23.5 23.7 21.7 22.9

1994 20.9 23.6 20.7 22.1

1995 19.8 21.3 20.3 20.8

1996 20.0 24.4 19.9 22.1

1997 20.9 23.7 22.2 22.9

1998 21.2 22.4 20.3 21.4

1999 21.0 24.9 19.5 23.0

In-Shell Width (mm) 1988 31.7 32.6 32.6 32.5

1989 31.2 32.3 32.7 32.3

1990 31.5 31.9 33.0 32.3

1991 31.1 31.4 31.7 31.5

1992 32.1 32.7 32.6 32.6

1993 32.2 32.4 32.9 32.6

1994 31.4 32.4 32.2 32.2

1995 30.6 31.7 32.0 31.7

1996 31.4 32.5 32.2 32.3

1997 32.3 33.0 31.1 32.3

1998 31.4 32.2 31.5 31.9

1999 31.2 32.6 31.6 32.2

In-Shell Cross-Width (mm) 1988 32.3 32.9 32.4 32.7

1989 32.0 33.0 32.2 32.6

1990 31.6 32.3 32.7 32.4

1991 30.5 31.2 31.2 31.1

1992 32.5 33.1 32.8 32.9

1993 32.0 32.3 32.9 32.5

1994 31.3 32.4 32.3 32.2

1995 30.2 31.3 31.7 31.3

1996 31.4 32.6 32.5 32.5

1997 32.3 33.2 31.9 32.6

1998 31.2 32.1 31.5 31.8

1999 31.6 33.3 31.8 32.7

In-Shell Length (mm) 1988 39.0 39.4 38.9 39.1

1989 38.2 39.1 39.3 39.1

1990 38.5 38.3 39.5 38.8

1991 38.9 39.0 39.1 39.0

1992 39.0 39.7 39.5 39.5

1993 39.9 40.1 39.8 40.0

1994 38.7 39.7 39.3 39.4

1995 39.2 39.0 39.5 39.2

1996 38.4 39.4 38.7 39.0

1997 38.2 39.4 37.6 38.6

1998 39.1 40.0 39.0 39.5

1999 38.3 39.7 38.9 39.4

Kernel Grade – Percent Sound 1988 88.7 97.8 95.9 96.2

1989 94.4 97.8 96.8 97.0

1990 96.1 97.1 95.4 96.3

1991 97.3 96.6 94.1 95.5

1992 93.6 96.9 97.6 96.9

1993 93.2 95.2 97.2 95.8

1994 92.6 94.7 97.5 95.6

1995 89.2 91.4 96.1 93.1

1996 92.6 93.8 95.3 94.4

1997 97.8 97.4 97.3 97.3

1998 79.9 93.2 98.3 94.4

1999 96.8 98.2 97.4 97.9

Nuts Set Per Tree 1988 1,359 2,390 1,837 2,008

1989 1,427 2,182 1,537 1,785

1990 1,637 2,380 1,835 2,028

1991 1,955 2,620 2,210 2,340

1992 1,567 1,902 1,380 1,604

1993 1,530 2,703 1,596 2,068

1994 1,813 1,961 1,602 1,773

1995 1,420 2,253 1,451 1,777

1996 1,362 1,836 1,497 1,630

1997 1,128 2,233 1,439 1,753

1998 1,070 1,654 1,253 1,407

1999 1,355 2,180 1,250 1,709

1/ Coast includes: Contra Costa, Lake, Monterey, Napa, San Benito, San Luis Obispo, Santa Clara, and Sonoma counties.

2/ Sacramento Valley includes: Butte, Colusa, El Dorado, Glenn, Sacramento, Solano, Sutter, Tehama, Yolo, and Yuba counties.

3/ San Joaquin Valley includes: Fresno, Kern, Kings, Madera, Merced, San Joaquin, Stanislaus, and Tulare counties.

4/ District and State averages are derived by weighting county averages by county bearing acreage figures. 
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TABLE 3 -- Walnut Objective Measurement Survey Data, By Variety

Measurement Year Ashley Chandler Eureka Franquette Hartley Payne Serr Tehama Vina Other

In-Shell Weight (gm) 1988 18.7 N/A 21.9 19.7 23.4 19.3 20.9 19.0 19.5 21.3 

1989 19.1 24.8 21.0 20.4 24.7 20.4 19.6 21.5 20.1 20.2 

1990 19.5 23.2 22.1 19.9 23.7 20.5 20.9 19.8 19.4 20.7 

1991 18.7 22.8 20.1 19.2 23.4 18.2 18.7 20.3 18.8 19.9 

1992 19.1 24.9 22.3 20.7 25.5 19.4 21.4 21.8 20.5 19.9 

1993 19.8 23.5 21.7 21.2 25.2 20.8 20.8 20.3 20.2 21.7 

1994 19.3 24.3 20.9 20.3 24.7 19.7 20.0 21.1 19.7 21.0 

1995 18.0 20.7 19.1 18.6 23.1 19.5 18.6 18.7 18.4 19.3 

1996 20.0 23.3 20.6 20.1 24.8 18.1 19.8 21.2 20.1 21.1 

1997 19.8 24.4 23.2 21.1 24.8 20.4 21.3 20.5 20.5 22.2 

1998 19.2 21.9 20.8 20.2 24.0 19.6 19.5 19.5 19.2 19.9 

1999 20.3 24.9 22.1 20.0 24.6 19.0 20.3 19.1 20.7 20.9 

In-Shell Width (mm) 1988 32.0 N/A 31.4 30.9 33.5 32.4 34.1 31.8 31.2 32.2 

1989 31.9 33.1 31.2 31.0 33.7 32.1 33.0 32.8 31.3 31.5 

1990 32.3 32.8 31.1 30.7 33.1 33.0 34.2 31.4 30.0 31.4 

1991 31.4 31.9 30.4 30.0 32.4 31.6 32.7 32.0 29.8 30.3 

1992 32.0 33.3 31.6 30.9 33.6 32.3 34.1 33.1 31.3 31.0 

1993 32.3 32.5 30.9 31.3 33.2 33.3 33.6 31.5 30.5 31.6 

1994 31.8 32.7 30.9 30.8 33.2 32.1 33.3 32.4 30.5 30.8 

1995 31.0 31.7 30.6 30.1 32.6 31.9 32.4 31.6 29.7 30.6 

1996 31.7 32.4 31.6 31.1 33.0 32.2 33.0 32.3 30.9 31.2 

1997 31.8 32.3 30.7 30.6 33.3 31.5 33.3 32.0 31.0 30.8 

1998 31.2 31.8 30.2 30.7 33.0 31.4 32.1 31.2 30.6 31.1 

1999 30.7 32.8 30.4 31.0 32.8 31.5 32.6 30.9 30.4 31.2 

In-Shell Cross-Width (mm) 1988 32.1 N/A 32.1 31.4 33.4 32.5 33.5 31.6 32.1 32.9 

1989 31.8 33.9 31.0 31.8 34.1 31.8 32.4 32.6 32.2 32.4 

1990 32.3 32.8 31.2 31.1 33.1 32.8 33.4 31.5 31.1 32.3 

1991 30.7 32.3 30.5 30.1 32.1 30.7 30.7 31.0 30.2 30.5 

1992 32.0 34.3 32.4 31.6 33.9 32.1 33.0 33.0 32.6 32.1 

1993 32.2 32.9 31.7 31.4 33.0 33.0 32.7 31.3 30.8 32.1 

1994 31.6 33.2 31.4 31.3 33.0 31.9 32.3 31.9 31.6 31.9 

1995 30.6 31.7 30.5 30.1 32.1 31.3 30.9 30.7 30.1 31.0 

1996 31.7 33.1 32.1 31.5 32.9 32.2 32.1 32.5 32.1 32.3 

1997 31.9 33.0 32.2 31.3 33.2 32.0 33.0 32.1 32.1 32.0 

1998 31.2 30.9 30.5 31.2 32.5 31.4 31.6 30.8 30.8 31.7 

1999 30.8 34.0 31.0 31.2 33.2 31.4 31.9 30.8 31.5 32.0 

In-Shell Length (mm) 1988 37.3 N/A 43.0 38.6 39.6 37.6 39.1 37.5 39.1 40.5 

1989 37.3 40.8 42.5 38.4 40.1 37.6 38.1 38.8 39.3 39.3 

1990 36.9 39.7 42.6 37.5 39.7 38.1 38.9 37.1 37.3 38.4 

1991 36.7 39.9 43.3 38.2 39.8 37.2 37.4 36.8 38.6 39.2 

1992 37.2 40.5 42.8 37.9 40.6 38.0 38.8 38.3 39.3 38.7 

1993 37.5 40.2 42.5 39.6 41.1 39.2 37.7 37.0 38.9 39.8 

1994 37.1 40.9 43.0 38.7 40.3 37.9 37.9 38.0 38.6 39.2 

1995 36.8 39.6 41.2 38.8 40.1 38.4 37.5 37.8 38.6 38.6 

1996 37.0 39.4 41.4 38.6 40.0 37.8 37.3 37.6 38.8 39.2 

1997 36.2 39.2 41.0 37.8 39.5 36.6 37.4 37.2 38.1 38.5 

1998 37.2 40.0 40.8 39.6 40.9 38.0 37.7 37.7 38.4 39.6 

1999 36.9 40.4 42.6 38.2 39.6 38.1 38.5 37.3 38.7 39.5 

Kernel Grade – 1988 94.3 N/A 97.9 95.1 98.1 93.2 94.9 95.0 97.6 97.1 

Percent Sound 1989 97.3 98.3 93.9 97.8 97.5 95.2 97.0 97.2 98.7 96.8 

1990 96.6 99.5 94.2 96.7 97.7 94.5 91.0 98.5 94.1 96.8 

1991 91.0 99.9 87.1 97.2 96.1 94.7 94.2 96.7 98.1 98.5 

1992 94.7 99.2 96.1 96.7 97.2 95.4 96.5 99.1 98.0 96.9 

1993 89.8 99.0 92.5 93.9 97.4 94.0 95.3 94.5 94.9 94.8 

1994 91.3 96.6 95.7 95.7 95.3 96.9 96.9 96.4 94.0 97.3 

1995 91.6 93.6 93.4 89.8 93.8 95.2 95.6 88.7 92.4 93.5 

1996 92.3 95.1 93.4 89.8 95.1 95.4 96.6 92.7 95.8 94.2 

1997 96.2 97.8 94.9 96.6 98.1 96.5 97.0 96.7 97.5 96.6 

1998 94.4 91.4 99.8 89.5 94.4 96.3 97.9 94.3 95.2 95.2 

1999 96.1 98.1 97.1 98.3 98.1 95.0 98.3 96.4 98.2 97.3 

Nuts Set Per Tree 1988 1,599 N/A 1,789 2,482 2,414 1,885 1,084 2,224 2,006 1,799 

1989 1,338 2,761 2,051 2,411 1,767 1,543 1,603 1,461 1,645 1,877 

1990 1,399 2,716 2,058 2,706 2,662 1,648 884 1,683 2,216 1,708 

1991 1,372 3,092 3,212 3,116 2,712 2,067 1,553 1,487 2,055 2,161 

1992 1,072 1,645 1,585 2,012 2,008 1,487 915 1,082 1,385 1,626 

1993 1,147 2,099 1,452 2,532 2,742 1,444 1,626 1,653 1,654 1,818 

1994 1,391 1,711 1,905 2,781 1,974 1,540 1,154 1,207 1,619 1,643 

1995 1,392 1,912 1,590 2,348 2,284 1,404 984 1,961 1,260 1,157 

1996 1,353 1,659 1,296 2,356 1,853 1,285 1,417 958 1,355 1,472 

1997 1,406 1,570 1,414 2,162 2,228 1,304 796 1,703 1,894 1,839 

1998 1,221 1,306 1,380 1,512 1,457 1,170 1,622 1,347 1,504 1,290 

1999 1,073 1,540 1,369 2,818 2,241 1,076 989 1,210 1,374 1,536 
TABLE 4 -- Percentage Distribution Of Walnut Shell Suture Sizes, By District And Variety

District

And

Variety

U.S. Standards Size Intervals 1/

1995 1996 1997 1998 

Mth Jmb Lge Med Bby Oth Mth Jmb Lge Med Bby Oth Mth Jmb Lge Med Bby Oth Mth Jmb Lge Med Bby Oth 

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Percent of Total 2/ - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

DISTRICTS:

 Coast 0 36 16 20 26 1 0 47 20 15 17 1 1 62 16 9 12 0 0 46 15 15 21 2  Sacramento Valley 0 53 16 14 15 1 0 65 14 11 9 0 0 73 11 9 6 0 0 62 15 12 10 1  San Joaquin Valley 0 59 17 13 10 1 0 61 18 12 8 0 0 51 14 12 19 4 0 49 19 16 14 1 

VARIETIES:

 Ashley 0 42 22 18 18 1 0 54 17 13 15 1 0 62 15 9 10 4 0 48 19 12 19 1  Chandler 1 52 19 19 10 0 1 67 16 9 7 0 1 67 11 10 10 1 1 53 20 15 11 0  Eureka 0 29 30 22 17 1 0 49 29 12 10 0 0 36 29 12 20 2 1 23 24 19 32 1  Franquette 0 24 21 24 28 2 0 41 25 17 16 1 0 35 19 21 23 1 0 35 20 24 20 1  Hartley 0 69 13 9 8 0 0 74 12 9 5 0 0 79 9 5 5 1 1 73 12 8 5 1  Payne 0 59 15 15 11 1 0 62 16 11 10 1 0 55 13 12 19 2 0 48 18 17 16 1  Serr 0 66 16 10 6 1 1 75 11 7 5 0 1 75 8 8 7 1 0 62 17 12 8 1  Tehama 1 53 15 15 16 1 0 59 22 11 7 0 0 61 15 11 14 0 0 46 21 13 20 1  Vina 1 25 16 22 31 5 0 38 19 22 20 1 0 45 18 18 15 3 0 32 19 25 23 1  Other 0 40 14 18 27 1 1 46 16 18 18 1 1 43 17 15 18 7 0 39 19 17 24 1  STATE 0 54 16 14 14 1 0 62 16 11 9 0 0 64 13 10 11 2 0 55 17 14 13 1 Number of Shells Measured 12,558 13,242 13,220 14,231 

1/ Sizes used are as follows: Mammoth -- Larger than 96/64" in diameter; Jumbo -- 80/64" to 96/64"; Large -- 76/64" to 80/64" for Eureka variety, 77/64" to 80/64" for all other 

for Eureka, 73/64" to 77/64" for all others; Baby -- 60/64" to 73/64"; and Others -- below 60/64".

2/ Percentage distributions based upon nut samples taken in the field, may not equal 100 percent due to rounding.