EPA-420/R-11-008

July 2011

Heavy-Duty Vehicle Greenhouse Gas (HDGHG) Emissions Inventory for Air Quality 

Modeling Technical Support Document

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

Office of Air and Radiation

Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards

Air Quality Assessment Division

Contact:

Rich Mason
ii

TABLE OF CONTENTS

ACRONYMS ...................................................................................................................................................iii

LIST OF TABLES...........................................................................................................................................iv

LIST OF APPENDICES.................................................................................................................................iv

1 Introduction .............................................................................................................................................. 1

2 2005 Emission inventories and their preparation ................................................................................. 2

2.1 Custom configuration for emissions modeling for HDGHG .............................................................4

2.2 Point, Nonpoint, Nonroad, and non-U.S. sources ..............................................................................6

2.3 2005 Onroad Mobile sources..............................................................................................................6

3 VOC speciation changes that represent fuel changes ........................................................................... 7

4 2030 Reference Case............................................................................................................................... 10

4.1 Stationary source projections: EGU sector (ptipm).........................................................................17

4.2 Stationary source projections: non-EGU sectors (ptnonipm, nonpt, ag, afdust).............................17

4.2.1 Livestock emissions growth (ag, afdust)......................................................................................18

4.2.2 Residential wood combustion growth (nonpt) .............................................................................19

4.2.3 Gasoline Stage II growth and control (nonpt, ptnonipm).............................................................19

4.2.4 Portable fuel container growth and control (nonpt) .....................................................................20

4.2.5 Aircraft growth (ptnonipm)..........................................................................................................21

4.2.6 Stationary source control programs, consent decrees & settlements, and plant closures 

(ptnonipm, nonpt).....................................................................................................................................22

4.2.7 Oil and gas projections in TX, OK, and non-California WRAP states (nonpt) ...........................26

4.3 Mobile source projections ................................................................................................................27

4.3.1 Onroad mobile (on_noadj, on_moves_runpm, on_moves_startpm)............................................27

4.3.2 Locomotives and Class 1 & 2 commercial marine vessels (alm_no_c3).....................................30

4.3.3 Class 3 commercial marine vessels (seca_c3)..............................................................................32

4.4 Canada, Mexico, and Offshore sources (othar, othon, and othpt)....................................................33

5 2030 Control Case .................................................................................................................................. 33

5.1 2030 Control Case Point and Nonpoint sources...............................................................................33

5.2 2030 Control Case Mobile sources...................................................................................................34

6 References ............................................................................................................................................... 35
iii

ACRONYMS

AEO Annual Energy Outlook

BEIS Biogenic Emission Inventory System

btp Bulk plant terminal-to-pump

C3 Category 3 (commercial marine vessels)

CAP Criteria Air Pollutant

CARB California Air Resources Board

CMAQ Community Multiscale Air Quality

CSAPR Cross-State Air Pollution (formerly Transport) Rule

E0 0% Ethanol gasoline

E10 10% Ethanol gasoline

EISA Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007

EGU Electric Generating Utility

FAA Federal Aviation Administration

FIPS Federal Information Processing Standard

HAP Hazardous Air Pollutant

HDGHG Heavy Duty Greenhouse Gas

HONO HNO2, nitrous acid

IPM Integrated Planning Model

LDGHG Light Duty Greenhouse Gas

MOBILE6 Mobile Source Emission Factor Model, version 6

MOVES Motor Vehicle Emissions Simulator

MY Model Year

NEEDS National Electric Energy Database System

NEI National Emission Inventory

NMIM National Mobile Inventory Model

OAQPS EPA’s Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards

ORL One Record per Line (a SMOKE input format)

MP Multipollutant

NO Nitric oxide

NO2 Nitrogen dioxide

NOX Nitrogen oxides

PFC Portable Fuel Container

PEC Elemental carbon component of PM2.5

PMFINE Leftover “Other”, or “crustal” component of PM2.5

PNO3 Particulate nitrate component of PM2.5

PSO4 Particulate sulfate component of PM2.5

POC Organic carbon component of PM2.5

rbt Refinery-to-bulk terminal

RFS2 Revised annual renewable fuel standard

SMOKE Sparse Matrix Operator Kernel Emissions

SCC Source Category Code

TAF Terminal Area Forecast

TSD Technical Support Document

VOC Volatile Organic Compound

WRAP Western Regional Air Partnership
iv

LIST OF TABLES

Table 1-1. List of cases run in support of the HDGHG air quality modeling ...................................................1

Table 2-1. Sectors Used in Emissions Modeling for the HDGHG Platform.....................................................2

Table 2-2. Model species produced by SMOKE for CB05 with SOA for HDGHG platform..........................5

Table 2-3. Description of differences in ancillary data between the HDGHG 2005 case and the 2005 v4.2 

platform ......................................................................................................................................................6

Table 2-4. HONO, NO, and NO2 computations in HDGHG versus 2005v4.2 platform..................................7

Table 3-1. Summary of VOC speciation profile approaches by sector across cases ........................................9

Table 4-1. Control strategies and growth assumptions for creating the 2030 Reference case emissions 

inventories from the 2005 base case.........................................................................................................14

Table 4-2. Growth factors from year 2005 to 2030 for Animal Operations....................................................18

Table 4-3. Projection Factors for growing year 2005 Residential Wood Combustion Sources......................19

Table 4-4. Factors used to project 2005 base-case aircraft emissions to year 2030........................................21

Table 4-5. Summary of Non-EGU Emission Reductions Applied to the 2005 Inventory due to Unit and Plant 

Closures....................................................................................................................................................23

Table 4-6. Future-year ISIS-based cement industry annual reductions (tons/yr) for the non-EGU (ptnonipm) 

sector.........................................................................................................................................................24

Table 4-7. State-level non-MACT Boiler Reductions from ICR Data Gathering...........................................25

Table 4-8. National Impact of RICE Controls on 2030 Non-EGU Projections..............................................25

Table 4-9. Impact of Fuel Sulfur Controls on 2014 Non-EGU Projections....................................................26

Table 4-10. Oil and Gas NOX and SO2 Emissions for 2005 and 2030 including additional reductions due to 

the RICE NESHAP...................................................................................................................................26

Table 4-11. Components of 2030 HDGHG Nonroad Sector ..........................................................................30

Table 4-12. Factors applied to year 2005 emissions to project locomotives and Class 1 and Class 2 

Commercial Marine Vessel Emissions to 2030........................................................................................31

Table 4-13. NOX, SO2, and PM2.5 Factors to Project Class 3 Commercial Marine Vessel emissions to 2030

..................................................................................................................................................................33

Table 5-1. Upstream HDGHG Control Case adjustments...............................................................................34

Table 5-2. Onroad mobile reductions from HDGHG controls........................................................................34

LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 4-1. MOVES exhaust temperature adjustment functions for 2005 and 2030 ......................................29

LIST OF APPENDICES

APPENDIX A: Modified HDGHG Equations to adapt pre-speciated diesel emissions from MOVES to air 

quality modeling species needed for CMAQ.

APPENDIX B: Inventory Data Files Used for Each HDGHG Modeling Case – SMOKE Input Inventory

Datasets

APPENDIX C: Ancillary Data Files Used for HDGHG 2005 Case Compared to 2005 v4.2 Platform Data 

Files

APPENDIX D: Summary of HDGHG Rule 2030 Reference Case Non-EGU Control Programs, Closures 

and Projections
1

1 Introduction

This document provides the details of emissions data processing done in support of the Environmental 

Protection Agency (EPA) and National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) joint rulemaking 

effort under the Clean Air Act (CAA) and the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (EISA) to 

establish fuel efficiency and greenhouse gas emissions standards for commercial medium-and heavy-duty 

on-highway vehicles and work trucks beginning with the 2014 model year (MY). This rulemaking effort is 

hereafter referred to in this technical support document (TSD) as the Heavy Duty Vehicle Greenhouse Gas 

(HDGHG) rule and consists of three emissions cases. Table 1-1 provides of list of the emissions cases 

created for this modeling effort.

Table 1-1. List of cases run in support of the HDGHG air quality modeling

Case Name

Internal EPA 

Abbreviation Description

2005 Base case 2005cs_hdghg 2005 case created using average year fires data and an 

average year temporal allocation approach for Electrical 

Generating Units (EGUs), used to compute relative 

response factors with 2030 scenarios.

2030 Reference case 2030cs_hdghg_ref 2030 “reference” (baseline) scenario representing the 

best estimate for the future year without implementation 

of national heavy duty vehicle emissions standards.

2030 Control case 2030cs_hdghg_ctl 2030 “control” case scenario representing 

implementation of national emissions standards, phased 

in between 2014 and 2018, for (commercial medium and) 

heavy-duty vehicles.

The data used in the 2005 emissions cases are often the same as those described in the Transport Rule Final 

CAP-BAFM 2005-based, Version 4.2 Platform TSD (http://www.epa.gov/ttn/chief/emch/index.html#2005), 

but some different emissions data are used for this rulemaking. Specifically, the HDGHG modeling used 

data intended only for the rule development and not for general use. All of the documentation provided here 

describes what was done differently and specifically for the HDGHG effort in contrast to what is used in the 

v4.2 platform.

In HDGHG, we used a 2005 base case approach for the year 2005 emissions scenario. This approach is very

similar to that in the recently promulgated Cross State Air Pollution Rule (CSAPR) Final Rule (formerly

known as the “Transport Rule”). A base case approach uses average year fires and EGU temporal profiles 

from three years of EGU data. We use a base case approach because we want to reduce year-specific 

variability in some components of the inventory. For example, large fires vary in location and day of the 

year each year, and EGU shutdowns and high use on high energy demand days also vary by year. By using a 

base case approach, these two aspects of the inventory are maintained in future year modeling and therefore 

do not introduce potentially spurious year-specific artifacts in air quality modeling estimates. For HDGHG, 

the same biogenic emissions data as the v4.2 platform was used for the 2005 case, and also for both futureyear cases. The only significant data changes between the 2005 and the 2030 future-year HDGHG cases are 

the emission inventories and speciation approaches.

For this effort, we have created and provided county-level emission summaries for criteria pollutants and 

select hazardous air pollutants (e.g. benzene, acetaldehyde, formaldehyde, acrolein, 1,3-butadiene, ethanol, 

naphthalene) by emissions modeling sector for the cases listed above. Summaries are included by month 

using average day emissions and separately with annual totals. These data have been provided to the EPA 
2

docket for this rule. In addition, the data will be posted on the Clearinghouse for Inventories and Emissions 

Factors (CHIEF) website in early August 2011 under the “HDGHG 2005 and 2030 emissions data” link at:

http://www.epa.gov/ttn/chief/emch/index.html#2005.

In the remainder of this document, we provide a description of the approaches taken for the emissions in 

support of air quality modeling for HDGHG. In Section 2, we describe the ancillary data and 2005 inventory

differences from the v4.2 platform. In Section 3, we describe the speciation differences among each of the 

cases run for HDGHG. In Section 4, we describe the 2030 Reference case as compared to the 2005 base 

case, and in Section 5, we describe the 2030 Control Case in comparison to the 2030 Reference case.

2 2005 Emission inventories and their preparation

As mentioned previously, the 2005 emissions modeling approach for HDGHG used much of the same data 

and approaches as the 2005 v4.2 platform. In this section, we identify the differences between the data used 

for HDGHG and that used for the 2005 v4.2 platform. Section 2.1 provides ancillary data differences that

impact multiple sectors and Sections 2.2 through 2.3 provides differences for the point, area, and mobile 

sectors.

Table 2-1 below lists the platform sectors used for the HDGHG modeling platform. It also indicates which 

platform sectors include HAP emissions and the associated sectors from the National Emission Inventory

(NEI). Subsequent sections refer to these platform sectors for identifying the emissions differences between 

the v4.2 platform and the HDGHG platform.

Table 2-1. Sectors Used in Emissions Modeling for the HDGHG Platform

Platform Sector

2005 NEI 

Sector Description

Contains HAP 

emissions?

IPM sector: ptipm Point NEI EGU units at facilities mapped to the IPM model using the 

National Electric Energy Database System (NEEDS) database.

Yes

Non-IPM sector: 

ptnonipm

Point+ All NEI point source units not matched to the ptipm sector, 

including aircraft.

Yes

Average-fire sector: 

avefire 

N/A Average-year wildfire and prescribed fire emissions, county and 

annual resolution. 

Yes

Agricultural sector: 

ag

Nonpoint NH3 emissions from NEI nonpoint livestock and fertilizer 

application.

No

Area fugitive dust 

sector: afdust

Nonpoint PM10 and PM2.5 emissions from fugitive dust sources in the NEI 

nonpoint inventory.

No

Remaining nonpoint 

sector: nonpt

Nonpoint+ All nonpoint sources not otherwise included in other emissions 

modeling sectors.

Yes

Nonroad sector: 

nonroad

Mobile: 

Nonroad

Monthly nonroad emissions from the National Mobile Inventory 

Model (NMIM) using NONROAD2005 version nr05c-BondBase, 

which is equivalent to NONROAD2008a, since it incorporated 

Bond rule revisions to some of the base-case inputs and the Bond 

rule controls did not take effect until later. NMIM was used for all 

states except California. Monthly emissions for California created 

from annual emissions submitted by the California Air Resources 

Board (CARB) for the 2005v2 NEI.

Yes

Aircraft, 

locomotive, marine: 

alm_no_c3

Mobile: 

Nonroad

Primarily 2002 NEI non-rail maintenance locomotives, and 

category 1 and category 2 commercial marine vessel (CMV) 

emissions sources, county and annual resolution. Aircraft 

emissions are no longer in this sector and are now included in the 

Non-EGU sector (as point sources); also, category 3 CMV 

emissions are no longer in this sector and are now contained in the 

seca_c3 sector.

Yes
3

Platform Sector

2005 NEI 

Sector Description

Contains HAP 

emissions?

C3 commercial 

marine: seca_c3

Mobile: 

nonroad

Annual point source-formatted, year 2005 category 3 (C3) CMV 

emissions, developed for the rule called “Control of Emissions 

from New Marine Compression-Ignition Engines at or Above 30 

Liters per Cylinder”, usually described as the Emissions Control 

Area (ECA) study (http://www.epa.gov/otaq/oceanvessels.htm). 

Utilized final projections from 2002, developed for the C3 ECA 

Proposal to the International Maritime Organization (EPA-420-F10-041, August 2010).

Yes

Onroad, except 

gasoline PM: 

on_noadj

Mobile: 

onroad+

Three, monthly, county-level components:

1) California onroad, created using annual emissions for all 

pollutants, submitted by CARB for the 2005v2 NEI. NH3 (not 

submitted by CARB) from MOVES2010a.

2) Onroad gasoline and diesel vehicle emissions from 

MOVES2010a not subject to temperature adjustments: exhaust 

CO, NOX, VOC, NH3, benzene, formaldehyde, acetaldehyde, 

1,3-butadiene, acrolein, naphthalene, brake and tire wear PM, and 

evaporative VOC, benzene, and naphthalene.

3) Onroad emissions for Hg from NMIM using MOBILE6.2, 

other than for California. 

Yes

Onroad starting 

exhaust PM: 

on_moves_startpm

Mobile: 

onroad+

Monthly, county-level MOVES2010a-based onroad gasoline 

emissions subject to temperature adjustments. Limited to exhaust 

mode only for PM species and naphthalene. California emissions 

not included. This sector is limited to cold start mode emissions 

that contain different temperature adjustment curves from running 

exhaust (see on_moves_runpm sector).

No

Onroad running 

exhaust PM 

on_moves_runpm

Mobile: 

onroad+

Monthly, county-level draft MOVES2010a-based onroad gasoline 

emissions subject to temperature adjustments. Limited to exhaust 

mode only for PM species and naphthalene. California emissions 

not included. This sector is limited to running mode emissions 

that contain different temperature adjustment curves from cold 

start exhaust (see on_moves_startpm sector).

No

Biogenic: biog N/A Hour-specific, grid cell-specific emissions generated from 

the BEIS3.14 model, including emissions in Canada and 

Mexico. Unchanged from the 2005v4 platform.

No

Other point sources 

not from the NEI: 

othpt

N/A Point sources from Canada’s 2006 inventory and Mexico’s 

Phase III 1999 inventory, annual resolution. Also includes 

annual U.S. offshore oil 2005v2 NEI point source

emissions. Unchanged from the 2005v4 platform.

No

Other nonpoint and 

nonroad not from

the NEI: othar

N/A Annual year 2006 Canada (province resolution) and year 

1999 Mexico Phase III (municipio resolution) nonpoint and 

nonroad mobile inventories. Unchanged from the 2005v4 

platform.

No

Other onroad 

sources not from the 

NEI: othon

N/A Year 2006 Canada (province resolution) and year 1999 

Mexico Phase III (municipio resolution) onroad mobile 

inventories, annual resolution. Unchanged from the 2005v4 

platform.

No

+ Some data included in modeling sector has been revised beyond what is included in the 2005 NEI v1 or v2. 

As with the 2005 v4.2 platform, the primary emissions modeling tool used to create the air quality modelready emissions was the Sparse Matrix Operator Kernel Emissions (SMOKE) modeling system 

(http://www.smoke-model.org/index.cfm). We used SMOKE version 2.6 to create emissions files for a 36-

km national grid, and 12-km Eastern and 12-km Western grids for the 2005 base case (also known as the 

“2005cs_hdghg_05b” case). 
4

2.1 Custom configuration for emissions modeling for HDGHG

Unlike the 2005 v4.2 platform, the configuration for HDGHG modeling included additional hazardous air 

pollutants (HAPs) and used slightly revised ancillary speciation data. Both of these differences are described 

in this section.

Table 2-2 lists the additional HAP pollutants processed for the HDGHG platform, which were not included 

in the 2005 v4.2 platform. However, since using the full multipollutant HAP version of the Community

Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model would have taken longer than the time available for our project, we 

used a “lite” version of the multipollutant CMAQ (Version 4.7) that required emissions only for the species 

listed in the footnote of Table 2-2.
5

Table 2-2. Model species produced by SMOKE for CB05 with SOA for HDGHG platform

Inventory Pollutant Model Species Model species description

CL2 CL2 Atomic gas-phase chlorine

HCl HCL Hydrogen Chloride (hydrochloric acid) gas

CO CO Carbon monoxide

NOX NO Nitrogen oxide

NO2 Nitrogen dioxide

HONO Nitrous acid

SO2 SO2 Sulfur dioxide

SULF Sulfuric acid vapor

NH3 NH3 Ammonia

VOC ACROLEIN* Acrolein from the HAP inventory

ALD2 Acetaldehyde from VOC speciation

ALD_PRIMARY* Acetaldehyde from the HAP inventory

ALDX Propionaldehyde and higher aldehydes

BENZENE Benzene (not part of CB05)

BUTADIENE13*1,3-butadiene from the HAP inventory

ETH Ethene

ETHA Ethane

ETOH Ethanol

FORM Formaldehyde

FORM_PRIMARY*Formaldehyde from the HAP inventory

IOLE Internal olefin carbon bond (R-C=C-R)

ISOP Isoprene

MEOH Methanol

OLE Terminal olefin carbon bond (R-C=C)

PAR Paraffin carbon bond

TOL Toluene and other monoalkyl aromatics

XYL Xylene and other polyalkyl aromatics

Various additional 

VOC species from the 

biogenics model which 

do not map to the 

above model species

SESQ Sesquiterpenes

TERP Terpenes

PM10 PMC Coarse PM > 2.5 microns and  10 microns

PM2.5 PEC Particulate elemental carbon  2.5 microns

PNO3 Particulate nitrate  2.5 microns

POC Particulate organic carbon (carbon only)  2.5 microns

PSO4 Particulate Sulfate  2.5 microns

PMFINE Other particulate matter  2.5 microns

Sea-salt species (non –

anthropogenic 

emissions)

PCL Particulate chloride

PNA Particulate sodium

 - ACROLEIN, ALD2_PRIMARY, BUTADIENE13, and FORM_PRIMARY are the extra “CMAQ-lite” 

HAPs that are not in the v4.2 platform.

In addition to the model species differences, the HDGHG platform had a few additional custom aspects in 

the 2005 cases. Table 2-3 lists the datasets used by the HDGHG platform that are different from the v4.2

platform. In addition, Appendix C provides a more detailed comparison of the ancillary datasets for the 2005 

v4.2 platform versus the HDGHG platform.
6

Another consideration is the speciation across the HDGHG future-year cases as compared to 2005. Section 3 

provides a detailed account of these differences. Otherwise, the future-year ancillary data were largely the 

same as those in 2005, with no substantial differences. All ancillary data files can be found at the 2005-

based platform website (http://www.epa.gov/ttn/chief/emch/index.html#2005).

Table 2-3. Description of differences in ancillary data between the HDGHG 2005 case and the 2005 v4.2

platform

Ancillary Data Type Difference between 2005 v4.2 platform and HDGHG platform

Speciation crossreferences and 

Speciation profiles

The HDGHG data files are configured to support the multi-pollutant (MP) 

version of CMAQ, whereas the 2005 v4.2 platform data file is configured to 

support only the non-MP version. Therefore, the HDGHG data files include 

profiles for additional VOC HAP species.

Inventory tables The HDGHG data file is configured to support the MP “lite” version of CMAQ, 

whereas the 2005 v4.2 platform data file is configured to support only the nonMP version.

2.2 Point, Nonpoint, Nonroad, and non-U.S. sources

With the exception of the extra VOC HAPs retained in HDGHG processing, the 2005 HDGHG emissions for 

all sectors except for U.S. onroad mobile sectors (on_noadj, on_moves_runpm, and on_moves_startpm) are 

identical to those provided in the 2005 Version 4.2-based Transport Rule Final TSD. All point source 

sectors (ptnonipm, point), nonpoint source sectors (nonpt, afdust, ag, avefire), nonroad sectors (alm_no_c3, 

nonroad, seca_c3) and Canada and Mexico sector (othar, othon, othpt) inventories are the same in the 2005 

HDGHG platform as the 2005v4.2 emissions modeling platform. The 2005v4.2 TSD can be found at: 

ftp://ftp.epa.gov/EmisInventory/2005v4_2/transportrulefinal_eitsd_28jun2011.pdf.

2.3 2005 Onroad Mobile sources

Onroad mobile sources include three sectors for US onroad emissions (on_noadj, on_moves_startpm, 

on_moves_runpm). As discussed in the previous section, the three US nonroad sectors (nonroad,

alm_no_c3, and seca_c3) and the Canada/Mexico onroad emissions (othon) are unchanged from the 

2005v4.2 platform.

For onroad mobile, the MOVES-based emissions in the on_noadj sector and the on_moves_startpm and 

on_moves_runpm sectors (completely MOVES-based) emissions inventory data are from the Motor Vehicle 

Emission Simulator (MOVES2010, specifically, version MOVES2010a) model. The NH3 onroad emissions 

in California (on_noadj sector) use MOVES2010(a)-based emissions in HDGHG compared to the NMIM 

(MOBILE6)-based emissions in the 2005v4.2 platform.

The HDGHG onroad emissions keep additional HAPs as described in Section 2.1. In addition for these 

MOVES sectors, the temperature adjustment calculations applied to PM2.5 species were the same as in the 

v4.2 platform.

For HDGHG, MOVES2010a was used in conjunction with an internal default database 

MOVESDB20100913, which contained performance updates from the MOVESDB20100826, the database 

originally released with MOVES2010a and used in the 2005v4.2 platform. Specifically, the MOVES2010a

emissions updates for HDGHG include improved PM exhaust estimates (particularly for future year 

estimates). In addition, we used NO and NO2 directly from MOVES2010a for HDGHG, rather than the 

default NO/NO2 speciation from NOX used in 2005v4.2 processing. Table 2-4 shows the default NO, NO2, 

and HONO fractions used in 2005v4.2 versus the equations for HDGHG, where NO_MOVES and 

NO2_MOVES are the MOVES2010-provided NO and NO2 emissions. The HONO, computed from total 
7

MOVES NOX (sum of NO and NO2 from MOVES) is subtracted out of MOVES NO2 to conserve mass. 

The speciation of MOVES HONO, NO and NO2 is based on the molecular weight of NO2 (46); that is, these 

NOX components were speciated assuming they were inventoried as NO2-equivalent; all prior speciation of 

MOVES NOX was also based on NO2 molecular weight equivalency.

Table 2-4. HONO, NO, and NO2 computations in HDGHG versus 2005v4.2 platform

CMAQ Specie HDGHG 2005v4.2

NO NO_MOVES NOX * 0.9

NO2 0.992 * NO2_MOVES – 0.008 * NO_MOVES NOX * 0.092

HONO 0.008 * (NO2_MOVES + NO_MOVES) NOX * 0.008

With one notable exception discussed here, for onroad gasoline exhaust PM emissions, the allocation of 

MOVES PM2.5 emissions to SMOKE-ready format PM species is the same as the 2005v4.2 platform and is 

documented in Appendix D of the 2005v4.1 TSD: 

http://www.epa.gov/ttn/chief/emch/toxics/2005v4.1_appendices.pdf. The exception to these equations is that 

for HDGHG processing, NH4 (ammonium) is removed from the computation of POC (PM2.5-based organic 

carbon) in equation 9, which in turn, affects the PMFINE (“other”, or “crustal” PM2.5) computation in 

equation 10. In short, MOVES2010a for HDGHG included improved PM exhaust estimates, and for diesel 

exhaust, the larger sulfate (PSO4) component was creating more NH4 in equation 7 than available 

“PM25OM” from MOVES2010a, where MOVES-provided species are related as follows:

PM25_TOTAL = PM25EC + PM25OM + PSO4

CMAQ requires the five CMAQ species to also sum to total PM2.5:

PM2.5 = POC+PEC+PNO3+PSO4+PMFINE

Appendix A in this document contains the revised text and equations, specifically, equation 7b for diesel 

exhaust. A recent study (SRI, 2009) also showed that, despite being sampled for NH4 and other ionic species 

in the particle phase, no particle phase NH4 was found in downstream filter tests. OTAQ experts agreed that 

NH4 for diesel exhaust must therefore removed, but we did not have time to reprocess gasoline exhaust PM 

(on_moves_runpm and on_moves_startpm sector) emissions with NH4 removed so the gasoline exhaust PM 

emissions do include some ammonium. However, PSO4 for gasoline exhaust is considerably smaller than 

diesel exhaust so the impact is likely negligible for air quality modeling. It is important to note that total 

PM2.5 was conserved for both gasoline and diesel exhaust (e.g., PM2_5_TOTAL from MOVES and PM2.5 

for CMAQ are identical). Note that PM emissions from these diesel sources are not subject to temperature 

adjustments like the on_moves_startpm and on_moves_runpm sectors.

3 VOC speciation changes that represent fuel changes

A significant detail that is different in each of the HDGHG modeling cases than in the 2005v4.2 emissions 

modeling is the VOC speciation profiles used to split total VOC emissions into the VOC model species 

needed for CMAQ. In this section, we summarize the various speciation profile information used in 

configuring the various cases.

The VOC speciation approach used for the base-year case HD GHG 2005 has some notable differences from 

the 2005 v4.2 platform for many emissions modes (e.g., evaporative, exhaust) and processes (e.g., diesel, 

gasoline, refueling). Two significant updates in the 2005 HDGHG are: 1) headspace vapor speciation 

utilizes a combination of the E10 headspace vapor profile (8763) and E0 headspace vapor profile (8762) as 
8

opposed to using solely E0 for 20051, and 2) a new Heavy Duty Diesel vehicle exhaust mode profile (8774) 

for pre-2007 model year (MY) vehicles that replaces an older 2004-vintage medium-duty diesel profile 

(4674). See for Table 3-1 more details.

The VOC speciation approach used for each of the future-year cases is customized to account for the impact 

of fuel changes. These changes affect the on_noadj sector, the nonroad sector, and parts of the nonpt and 

ptnonipm sectors. The speciation changes from fuels in the nonpt sector are for portable fuel containers 

(PFCs) and fuel distribution operations associated with the bulk-plant-to-pump (btp) distribution. The 

speciation changes from fuels in the ptnonipm sector include btp distribution operations inventoried as point 

sources. Refinery to bulk terminal (rbt) fuel distribution speciation does not change across the modeling 

cases because this is considered upstream from the introduction of ethanol into the fuel. Mapping of fuel 

distribution SCCs to btp and rbt emissions categories can be found in Appendix A of the revised annual 

Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS2) Emissions Inventory for Air Quality Modeling Technical Support

Document (EPA Report No. 420-R-10-005, January 2010, 

http://www.epa.gov/otaq/renewablefuels/420r10005.pdf).

Table 3-1 summarizes the different profiles utilized for the fuel-related sources in each of the sectors for 

2005 and the future year cases. A comparison of the 2005v4.2 platform with the HDGHG 2005 case is also 

included.

 

1 This was an oversight in the 2005v4.2 platform corrected for this modeling effort. 
9

Table 3-1. Summary of VOC speciation profile approaches by sector across cases

Inventory 

Type and 

Mode

VOC speciation approach by fuels VOC 

Profile 

Codes

2005

V4.2

2005

HDGH

G

2030

Reference

2030

Control

Mobile 

Exhaust 

Diesel

medium-duty diesel exhaust, 2004-

vintage

4674 onroad

nonroad

pre-2007 Heavy Duty profile 8774 onroad

nonroad

pre-2007 Medium Duty 8775 onroad 

except 

Class 6,7 

& 8 start

onroad 

except 

Class 6,7 

& 8 start

weighted year 2030 heavy-duty start 

(parking area) emissions without

HD controls

877RH onroad 

class 8 

start only

weighted year 2030 heavy-duty start 

(parking area) emissions with HD 

controls

877CH onroad 

class 8 

start only

weighted year 2030 medium-duty

start (parking area) emissions 

without HD controls

877RM onroad 

class 6 & 

7 start 

only

weighted year 2030 medium-duty

start (parking area) emissions with

HD controls

877CM onroad 

class 6 & 

7 start 

only

Mobile 

Exhaust 

Gasoline

Tier 1 E0 and E10 combinations 8750

8751

onroad

nonroad

onroad

nonroad

Tier 1 E0 or E10 by county 8750

8751

onroad

nonroad

onroad

nonroad

Mobile 

Evaporative 

Diesel

diesel evap headspace profile, 

Circle K Diesel single-sample

4547 onroad onroad onroad onroad

E0 and E10 combinations 8753

8754

nonroad nonroad

E0 or E10 by county 8753

8754

nonroad nonroad

Mobile 

Evaporative 

Gasoline

E0 and E10 combinations 8753

8754

onroad

nonroad

onroad

nonroad

E0 or E10 by county 8753

8754

onroad

nonroad

onroad

nonroad

Mobile 

Refueling, 

PFCs, gas 

distribution

E0 headspace 8762 All 

listed

E0 headspace and E10 headspace 

combinations

8762

8763

All 

listed

E0 headspace or E10 by county 8762

8763

All listed All listed

Appendix C lists ancillary input data file names used for HDGHG emissions modeling that are updated from 

the v4.2 platform. All ancillary data files not unique to HDGHG emissions modeling are available on the 

2005v4.2-based platform website previously referenced.
10

4 2030 Reference Case

The 2030 Reference case is intended to represent the emissions associated with use of the most likely volume 

of ethanol in the absence of the greenhouse gas emissions standards for commercial medium-and heavy-duty 

on-highway vehicles and work trucks beginning with the 2014 model year (MY). The reference case 

assumes no improvements in fuel consumption or greenhouse gas emissions in MY 2014 through 2018. The 

reference and control cases do not include fuel and emissions changes from the Energy Independence and 

Security Act of 2007 (EISA), or revised annual Renewable Fuel Standards (RFS2); however the Light Duty 

Greenhouse Gas (LDGHG) impacts are included in both cases.

The 2030 Reference case uses many of the same growth and control assumptions as those for the Final 

Cross-State Air Pollution Rule (CSAPR), because other than onroad mobile sources, both HDGHG and 

CSAPR use the same 2005v4.2-based emissions inventories. There are some differences between the 2012 

and 2014 base case projections in CSAPR and the 2030 reference case for HDGHG:

1) The year 2030 includes some additional controls that were promulgated after 2014 (e.g., fuel sulfur 

rules in a couple of states).

2) Growth factors for several sources are year-specific; so while the methodology is the same as 

CSAPR, the future year emissions estimates differ (e.g., oil and gas in a couple states, onroad 

refueling, residential wood combustion).

3) Minor errors identified after CSAPR modeling was complete were fixed (e.g, we include agricultural 

dust projections for the couple of states that provided point source farms).

The remainder of Section 4 is very similar to Section 4 in the CSAPR emissions modeling TSD, available 

from ftp://ftp.epa.gov/EmisInventory/2005v4_2/transportrulefinal_eitsd_28jun2011.pdf, but with the updates 

described above.

The future base-case projection methodologies vary by sector. The 2030 reference case represents predicted 

emissions in the absence of any further controls beyond those Federal and State measures already 

promulgated before emissions processing on the Transport Rule began in December, 2010. For EGU 

emissions (ptipm sector), the emissions reflect state rules and federal consent decrees through December 1, 

2010. For mobile sources (on_noadj, on_moves_runpm, and on_moves_startpm sectors), all national 

measures for which data were available at the time of modeling have been included. The future base-case 

scenarios do reflect projected economic changes and fuel usage for EGU and mobile sectors. For nonEGU 

point (ptnonipm sector) and nonpoint stationary sources (nonpt, ag, and afdust sectors), local control 

programs that might have been necessary for areas to attain the 1997 PM2.5 NAAQS annual standard, 2006 

PM NAAQS (24-hour) standard, and the 1997 ozone NAAQS are generally not included in the future basecase projections for most states. One exception are some NOx and VOC reductions associated with the New 

York, Virginia, and Connecticut State Implementation Plans (SIP), which were added as part of the 

comments received from the CSAPR and a larger effort to start including more local control information on 

stationary non-EGU sources; this is described further in Section 4.2. The following bullets summarize the 

projection methods used for sources in the various sectors, while additional details and data sources are given 

in 
11

Table 4-1.

 IPM sector (ptipm): Unit-specific estimates from IPM, version 4.10.

 Non-IPM sector (ptnonipm): Projection factors and percent reductions reflect CSAPR (Transport 

Rule) comments and emission reductions due to control programs, plant closures, consent decrees 

and settlements, and 1997 and 2001 ozone State Implementation Plans in NY, CT, and VA. We also

used projection approaches for point-source livestock, and aircraft and gasoline stage II emissions

that are consistent with projections used for the sectors that contain the bulk of these emissions. 

Terminal area forecast (TAF) data aggregated to the national level were used for aircraft to account

for projected changes in landing/takeoff activity. Year-specific speciation was applied to some 

portions of this sector and was discussed in Section 3.

 Average fires sector (avefire): No growth or control.

 Agricultural sector (ag): Projection factors for livestock estimates based on expected changes in 

animal population from 2005 Department of Agriculture data; no growth or control for NH3

emissions from fertilizer application.

 Area fugitive dust sector (afdust): Projection factors for dust categories related to livestock estimates 

based on expected changes in animal population; no growth or control for other categories in this 

sector.

 Remaining Nonpoint sector (nonpt): Projection factors that implement Transport Rule Proposal 

comments and reflect emission reductions due to control programs. Residential wood combustion

projections based on growth in lower-emitting stoves and a reduction in higher emitting stoves. PFC 

projection factors reflecting impact of the final Mobile Source Air Toxics (MSAT2) rule. Gasoline 

stage II projection factors based on National Mobile Inventory Model (NMIM)-estimated VOC 

refueling estimates for future years. Oil and gas projection estimates are provided for the nonCalifornia Western Regional Air Partnership (WRAP) states as well as Oklahoma and Texas. Yearspecific speciation was applied to some portions of this sector and was discussed in Section 3.

 Nonroad mobile sector (nonroad): Other than for California, this sector uses data from a run of 

NMIM that utilized the NR05d-Bond-final version of NONROAD (which is equivalent to 

NONROAD2008a), using future-year equipment population estimates and control programs to the 

year 2030 and using national level inputs. Final controls from the final locomotive-marine and small 

spark ignition OTAQ rules are included. California-specific data provided by the state of California, 

except NH3 used 2030 NMIM. Year-specific speciation was applied to some portions of this sector 

and is discussed in Section 4.3.5.

 Locomotive, and non-Class 3 commercial marine sector (alm_no_c3): Projection factors for Class 1 

and Class 2 commercial marine and locomotives which reflect Transport Rule comments and activity

growth and final locomotive-marine controls.

 Class 3 commercial marine vessel sector (seca_c3): Base-year 2005 emissions grown and controlled 

to 2030, incorporating Transport Rule comments and controls based on Emissions Control Area 

(ECA) and International Marine Organization (IMO) global NOX and SO2 controls.

 Onroad mobile sector with no adjustment for daily temperature (on_noadj): MOVES2010a run 

(state-month) for 2030 with results disaggregated to the county level in proportion to NMIM 2030

emissions estimates. The reference case does not include HDGHG or RFS2 impacts, but does 

include LDGHG impacts. Temperature impacts at the monthly average resolution. Californiaspecific data provided by the state of California, except NH3 which was obtained from 

MOVES2010a. VOC speciation uses different future-year values to take into account both the 

increase in ethanol use, and the existence of Tier 2 vehicles that use a different speciation profile. 

Other than California, this sector includes all non-refueling onroad mobile emissions (exhaust, 
12

evaporative, brake wear and tire wear modes) except exhaust mode gasoline PM and naphthalene 

emissions that are provided in the on_moves_startpm and on_moves_runpm sectors.

 Onroad PM gasoline running mode sector (on_moves_startpm): Running mode MOVES2010a year 

2030 future-year state-month estimates for PM and naphthalene, apportioned to the county level 

using NMIM 2030 state-county ratios matched to vehicle and road types. The reference case does 

not include HDGHG or RFS2 impacts, but does include LDGHG impacts. Use future-year

temperature adjustment file for adjusting the 72°F emissions to ambient temperatures (for elemental 

and organic carbon) based on grid cell hourly temperature (note that lower temperatures result in 

increased emissions).

 Onroad PM gasoline start mode sector (on_moves_startpm): Cold start MOVES2010a future-year 

2012 and 2014 state-month estimates for PM and naphthalene, apportioned to the county level using 

NMIM 2030 state-county ratios of local urban and rural roads by vehicle type. The reference case 

does not include HDGHG or RFS2 impacts, but does include LDGHG impacts. Use future-year 

temperature adjustment file for adjusting the 72°F emissions (for elemental and organic carbon) to 

ambient temperatures based on grid cell hourly temperatures (lower temperatures result in increased 

emissions).

 Other nonroad/nonpoint (othar): No growth or control. 

 Other onroad sector (othon): No growth or control.

 Other nonroad/nonpoint (othar): No growth or control.

 Other point (othpt): No growth or control.

 Biogenic: 2005 emissions used for all future-year scenarios.
13

Table 4-1 summarizes the control strategies and growth assumptions by source type that were used to create 

the 2030 base-case emissions from the 2005v4.2 base-case inventories. All Mexico, Canada, and offshore 

oil emissions are unchanged in all future cases from those in the 2005 base case. Note that mercury (Hg) is 

listed in the pollutants column; however, we did not include Hg in our v4.2-based HDGHG modeling.

Lists of the control, closures, projection packets (datasets) used to create the HDGHG 2030 future reference 

case scenario inventories from the 2005 HDGHG base case are provided in Appendix D.

The remainder of this section is organized either by source sector or by specific emissions category within a 

source sector for which a distinct set of data were used or developed for the purpose of projections for the 

HDGHG Rule. This organization allows consolidation of the discussion of the emissions categories that are 

contained in multiple sectors, because the data and approaches used across the sectors are consistent and do 

not need to be repeated. Sector names associated with the emissions categories are provided in parentheses.
14

Table 4-1. Control strategies and growth assumptions for creating the 2030 Reference case emissions 

inventories from the 2005 base case

Control Strategies and/or growth assumptions

(grouped by affected pollutants or standard and approach used to 

apply to the inventory)

Pollutants 

affected

Approach/ 

Reference

Non-EGU Point (ptnonipm sector) projection approaches

MACT rules, national, VOC: national applied by SCC, MACT

Boat Manufacturing 

Wood Building Products Surface Coating

Generic MACT II: Spandex Production, Ethylene manufacture

Large Appliances

Miscellaneous Organic NESHAP (MON): Alkyd Resins, Chelating Agents, Explosives, 

 Phthalate Plasticizers, Polyester Resins, Polymerized Vinylidene Chloride

Reinforced Plastics

Asphalt Processing & Roofing

Iron & Steel Foundries

Metal: Can, Coil

Metal Furniture

Miscellaneous Metal Parts & Products

Municipal Solid Waste Landfills

Paper and Other Web

Plastic Parts

Plywood and Composite Wood Products

Carbon Black Production

Cyanide Chemical Manufacturing

Friction Products Manufacturing

Leather Finishing Operations

Miscellaneous Coating Manufacturing

Organic Liquids Distribution (Non-Gasoline)

Refractory Products Manufacturing

Sites Remediation

VOC EPA, 2007a

Consent decrees on companies (based on information from the Office of Enforcement 

and Compliance Assurance – OECA) apportioned to plants owned/operated by the 

companies

VOC, CO, NOx, 

PM, SO2

1

DOJ Settlements: plant SCC controls for:

Alcoa, TX 

Premcor (formerly Motiva), DE

All 2

Refinery Consent Decrees: plant/SCC controls NOx, PM, SO2 3

Hazardous Waste Combustion PM 4

Municipal Waste Combustor Reductions –plant level PM 5

Hospital/Medical/Infectious Waste Incinerator Regulations NOX, PM, SO2 EPA, 2005

Large Municipal Waste Combustors – growth applied to specific plants All (including Hg) 5

MACT rules, plant-level, VOC: Auto Plants VOC 6

MACT rules, plant-level, PM & SO2: Lime Manufacturing PM, SO2 7

MACT rules, plant-level, PM: Taconite Ore PM 8

NESHAP: Portland Cement (09/09/10) – plant level based on Industrial Sector 

Integrated Solutions (ISIS) policy emissions in 2013. The ISIS results are from the 

ISIS-Cement model runs for the NESHAP and NSPS analysis of July 28, 2010 and 

include closures.

Hg, NOX, SO2, 

PM, HCl 13; EPA, 

2010

Livestock Emissions Growth from year 2002 to year 2030 (some farms in the point 

inventory)

NH3, PM 9

Gasoline Stage II growth and control from year 2005 to year 2030 based on MOVES 

2030 reference and 2005 state-level ratios

VOC 11

New York ozone SIP controls VOC, NOX,

HAP VOC 14

Additional plant and unit closures provided by state, regional, and the EPA agencies and 

additional consent decrees. Includes updates from CSAPR comments.

All 19
15

Emission reductions resulting from controls put on specific boiler units (not due to 

MACT) after 2005, identified through analysis of the control data gathered from the 

Information Collection Request (ICR) from the Industrial/Commercial/Institutional 

Boiler NESHAP.

NOX, SO2, HCl

Section 4.2.6

Reciprocating Internal Combustion Engines (RICE) NESHAP NOX, CO, PM, 

SO2

15

Replaced 2005 with 2008 emissions for Corn Products International, Cook County, 

Illinois, due to the shutdown of 3 boilers and addition of a new boiler (subject to 

Prevention of Significant Deterioration and Requirements). Agency Identifier: 

031012ABI (ILEPA) 

All

16

State fuel sulfur content rules for fuel oil –effective only in Maine, New Jersey, and New 

York

SO2

17

Nonpoint (nonpt sector) projection approaches

Municipal Waste Landfills: projection factor of 0.25 applied All EPA, 2007a

Livestock Emissions Growth from year 2002 to year 2030 NH3, PM 9

Residential Wood Combustion Growth and Change-outs from year 2005 to year 2030 All 10

Gasoline Stage II growth and control from year 2005 to year 2030 based on MOVES 

2030 reference and 2005 state-level ratios

VOC 11

Portable Fuel Container Mobile Source Air Toxics Rule 2 (MSAT2) inventory growth 

and control from year 2005 to year 2030

VOC 12

RICE NESHAP NOX, CO, VOC, 

PM, SO2

15

Use Phase II WRAP 2018 Oil and Gas VOC, SO2, NOX, 

CO

Section 4.2.7

Use 2008 Oklahoma and Texas Oil and Gas, and apply year 2021 projections for TX 

(last year available), and RICE NESHAP controls to Oklahoma emissions.

VOC, SO2, NOX, 

CO, PM

Section 4.2.7

New York, Connecticut, and Virginia ozone SIP controls VOC 14, 18

State fuel sulfur content rules for fuel oil –effective only in Maine, New Jersey, and New 

York

SO2

17

APPROACHES/REFERENCES- Stationary Sources:

1. Appendix B in the Proposed Toxics Rule TSD: 

http://www.epa.gov/ttn/chief/emch/toxics/proposed_toxics_rule_appendices.pdf

2. For Alcoa consent decree, used http:// cfpub.epa.gov/compliance/cases/index.cfm; for Motiva: used information sent by 

State of Delaware

3. Used data provided by the EPA, OAQPS, Sector Policies and Programs Division (SPPD).

4. Obtained from Anne Pope, the US EPA - Hazardous Waste Incinerators criteria and hazardous air pollutant controls 

carried over from 2002 Platform, v3.1. 

5. Used data provided by the EPA, OAQPS SPPD expert.

6. Percent reductions and plants to receive reductions based on recommendations by rule lead engineer, and are consistent 

with the reference: EPA, 2007a

7. Percent reductions recommended are determined from the existing plant estimated baselines and estimated reductions as 

shown in the Federal Register Notice for the rule. SO2 percent reduction are computed by 6,147/30,783 = 20% and 

PM10 and PM2.5 reductions are computed by 3,786/13,588 = 28%

8. Same approach as used in the 2006 Clean Air Interstate Rule (CAIR), which estimated reductions of “PM emissions by 

10,538 tpy, a reduction of about 62%.” Used same list of plants as were identified based on tonnage and SCC from 

CAIR: http://www.envinfo.com/caain/June04updates/tiop_fr2.pdf

9. Except for dairy cows and turkeys (no growth), based on animal population growth estimates from the US Department 

of Agriculture (USDA) and the Food and Agriculture Policy and Research Institute. See Section 3.2.1.

10. Growth and Decline in woodstove types based on industry trade group data, See Section. 

11. VOC emission ratios of year 2016 (linear interpolation between 2015 and 2020) -specific from year 2005 from the 

National Mobile Inventory Model (NMIM) results for onroad refueling including activity growth from VMT, Stage II 

control programs at gasoline stations, and phase in of newer vehicles with onboard Stage II vehicle controls.

12. VOC and benzene emissions for year 2016 (linear interpolation between 2015 and 2020) from year 2002 from MSAT2
16

rule (EPA, 2007b)

13. Data files for the cement sector provided by Elineth Torres, the EPA-SPPD, from the analysis done for the Cement 

NESHAP: The ISIS documentation and analysis for the cement NESHAP/NSPS is in the docket of that rulemakingdocket # EPA-HQ-OAR-2002-005. The Cement NESHAP is in the Federal Register: September 9, 2010 (Volume 75, 

Number 174, Page 54969-55066

14. New York NOX and VOC reductions obtained from Appendix J in NY Department of Environmental Conservation 

Implementation Plan for Ozone (February 2008): http://www.dec.ny.gov/docs/air_pdf/NYMASIP7final.pdf. See 

Section 3.2.6.

15. Appendix F in the Proposed Toxics Rule TSD: 

http://www.epa.gov/ttn/chief/emch/toxics/proposed_toxics_rule_appendices.pdf

16. The 2008 data used came from Illinois’ submittal of 2008 emissions to the NEI.

17. Based on available, enforceable state sulfur rules as of November, 2010: 

http://www.ilta.org/LegislativeandRegulatory/MVNRLM/NEUSASulfur%20Rules_09.2010.pdf , 

http://www.mainelegislature.org/legis/bills/bills_124th/billpdfs/SP062701.pdf , 

http://switchboard.nrdc.org/blogs/rkassel/governor_paterson_signs_new_la.html , 

http://green.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/07/20/new-york-mandates-cleaner-heating-oil/

18. VOC reductions in Connecticut and Virginia obtained from CSAPR comments.

19. Appendix D of Cross-State Air Pollution Rule: 

ftp://ftp.epa.gov/EmisInventory/2005v4_2/transportrulefinal_eitsd_appendices_28jun2011.pdf

Onroad mobile and nonroad mobile controls 

(list includes all key mobile control strategies but is not exhaustive)

National Onroad Rules:

Tier 2 Rule: Signature date February, 2000

2007 Onroad Heavy-Duty Rule: February, 2009

Final Mobile Source Air Toxics Rule (MSAT2): February, 2007

Renewable Fuel Standard: March, 2010

all 1

Local Onroad Programs:

National Low Emission Vehicle Program (NLEV): March, 1998

Ozone Transport Commission (OTC) LEV Program: January,1995

VOC 2

National Nonroad Controls:

Clean Air Nonroad Diesel Final Rule – Tier 4: June, 2004

Control of Emissions from Nonroad Large-Spark Ignition Engines and Recreational 

Engines (Marine and Land Based): “Pentathalon Rule”: November, 2002

Clean Bus USA Program: October, 2007

Control of Emissions of Air Pollution from Locomotives and Marine Compression-Ignition 

Engines Less than 30 Liters per Cylinder: October, 2008

all 3,4,5

Aircraft:

Itinerant (ITN) operations at airports to year 2030 all 6

Locomotives:

Energy Information Administration (EIA) fuel consumption projections for freight rail

Clean Air Nonroad Diesel Final Rule – Tier 4: June 2004

Locomotive Emissions Final Rulemaking, December 17, 1997

Control of Emissions of Air Pollution from Locomotives and Marine: May 2008

all EPA, 2009; 

3; 4; 5

Commercial Marine:

Category 3 marine diesel engines Clean Air Act and International Maritime Organization 

standards (April, 30, 2010) –also includes CSAPR comments.

EIA fuel consumption projections for diesel-fueled vessels

OTAQ ECA C3 Base 2030 inventory for residual-fueled vessels

Clean Air Nonroad Diesel Final Rule – Tier 4

Emissions Standards for Commercial Marine Diesel Engines, December 29, 1999

Tier 1 Marine Diesel Engines, February 28, 2003

all 7, 3; EPA, 

2009

APPROACHES/REFERENCES – Mobile Sources

1. http://epa.gov/otaq/hwy.htm

2. Only for states submitting these inputs: http://www.epa.gov/otaq/lev-nlev.htm

3. http://www.epa.gov/nonroad-diesel/2004fr.htm

4. http://www.epa.gov/cleanschoolbus/
17

5. http://www.epa.gov/otaq/marinesi.htm

6. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) Terminal Area Forecast (TAF) System, January 2010: 

http://www.apo.data.faa.gov/main/taf.asp

7. http://www.epa.gov/otaq/oceanvessels.htm

4.1 Stationary source projections: EGU sector (ptipm)

The future-year data for the ptipm sector used in the air quality modeling were created using version 4.10 

(v4.10) of the Integrated Planning Model (IPM) (http://www.epa.gov/airmarkt/progsregs/epaipm/index.html). The IPM is a multiregional, dynamic, deterministic linear programming model of the U.S. 

electric power sector. Version 4.10 reflects state rules and consent decrees through December 1, 2010 and 

incorporates information on existing controls collected through the Information Collection Request (ICR), 

and information from comments received on the IPM-related Notice of Data Availability (NODA) published 

on September 1, 2010. IPM v4.10 Final included the addition of over 20 GW of existing Activated Carbon 

Injection (ACI) reported to the EPA via the ICR. Units with SO2 or NOX advanced controls (e.g., scrubber, 

SCR) that were not required to run for compliance with Title IV, New Source Review (NSR), state 

settlements, or state-specific rules were modeled by IPM to either operate those controls or not based on 

economic efficiency parameters.

Updates to IPM 4.10 (with respect to the version released in the IPM NODA version) include adjustments to 

assumptions regarding the performance of acid gas control technologies, new costs imposed on fuelswitching (e.g., bituminous to sub-bituminous), correction of lignite availability to some plants, 

incorporation of additional planned retirements, a more inclusive implementation of the scrubber upgrade 

option, and the availability of a scrubber retrofit to waste-coal fired fluidized bed combustion units without 

an existing scrubber. Further details on the future-year EGU emissions inventory used for this rule can be 

found in the incremental documentation of the IPM v.4.10 platform, available at 

http://www.epa.gov/airmarkets/progsregs/epa-ipm/BaseCasev410.html. Note that this year 2030 IPM run 

includes the version 4.10 NODA CSAPR Proposal (not Final) emissions and does not include the Mercury

and Air Toxics (MATS) Rule impacts (proposal or final), which was proposed on March 16, 2011. In 

addition, the Boiler MACT was not represented because the rule was not final at the time the HDGHG 

modeling was performed.

Directly emitted PM emissions (i.e., PM2.5 and PM10) from the EGU sector are computed via a post 

processing routine which applies emission factors to the IPM-estimated fuel throughput based on fuel, 

configuration and controls to compute the filterable and condensable components of PM. This methodology

is documented in the IPM CSAPR TSD.

4.2 Stationary source projections: non-EGU sectors (ptnonipm, nonpt, ag, 

afdust)

To project U.S. stationary sources other than the ptipm sector, we applied growth factors and/or controls to 

certain categories within the ptnonipm, nonpt, ag and afdust platform sectors. This subsection provides 

details on the data and projection methods used for these sectors. In estimating future-year emissions, we 

assumed that emissions growth does not track with economic growth for many stationary non-IPM sources. 

This “no-growth” assumption is based on an examination of historical emissions and economic data. More 

details on the rationale for this approach can be found in Appendix D of the Regulatory Impact Assessment 

for the PM NAAQS rule (EPA, 2006).

The starting point was the emission projections done for the 2005v4.2 platform for the CSAPR, which 

incorporated responses to public comments on the modeling inventories. The 2012 and 2014 projection 
18

factors developed for the CSAPR (see http://www.epa.gov/ttn/chief/emch/index.html#final) were updated to 

reflect year 2030 projections.

Year-specific projection factors for year 2030 were used for creating the 2030 reference case unless noted 

otherwise. Growth factors (and control factors) are provided in the following sections where feasible. 

However, some sectors used growth or control factors that varied geographically and their contents could not 

be provided in the following sections (e.g., gasoline distribution varies by state and pollutant and has 

hundreds of records).

4.2.1 Livestock emissions growth (ag, afdust)

Growth in ammonia (NH3) and dust (PM10 and PM2.5) emissions from livestock in the ag and afdust and 

ptnonipm sectors was based on projections of growth in animal population. Table 4-2 provides the growth 

factors from the 2005 base-case emissions to 2030 for animal categories applied to the ag, afdust, and 

ptnonipm sectors for livestock-related SCCs. For example, year 2030 beef emissions are 3.85% larger than 

the 2005 base-case emissions. Except for dairy cows and turkey production, the animal projection factors 

are derived from national-level animal population projections from the U.S. Department of Agriculture 

(USDA) and the Food and Agriculture Policy and Research Institute (FAPRI). For dairy cows and turkeys,

we assumed that there would be no growth in emissions. This assumption was based on an analysis of 

historical trends in the number of such animals compared to production rates. Although productions rates 

have increased, the number of animals has declined. Thus, we do not believe that production forecasts 

provide representative estimates of the future number of cows and turkeys; therefore, we did not use these 

forecasts for estimating future-year emissions from these animals. In particular, the dairy cow population is 

projected to decrease in the future as it has for the past few decades; however, milk production will be 

increasing over the same period. Note that the ammonia emissions from dairies are not directly related to 

animal population but also nitrogen excretion. With the cow numbers going down and the production going 

up we suspect the excretion value will be changing, but we assumed no change because we did not have a 

quantitative estimate.

The inventory for livestock emissions used 2002 emissions values therefore, our projection method projected 

from 2002 rather than from 2005.

Appendix E in the 2002v3 platform documentation provides the animal population data and regression 

curves used to derive the growth factors: 

http://www.epa.gov/scram001/reports/Emissions%20TSD%20Vol2_Appendices_01-15-08.pdf. Appendix F 

in the same document provides the cross references of livestock sources in the ag, afdust and ptnonipm 

sectors to the animal categories in Table 4-2.

Table 4-2. Growth factors from year 2005 to 2030 for Animal Operations

Animal Category Projection 

Factor

Dairy Cow 1.0000

Beef 1.0385

Pork 1.1666

Broilers 1.6426

Turkeys 1.0000

Layers 1.4491

Poultry Average 1.4991

Overall Average 1.1745
19

4.2.2 Residential wood combustion growth (nonpt)

We projected residential wood combustion emissions based on the expected increase in the number of lowemitting wood stoves and the corresponding decrease in other types of wood stoves. As newer, cleaner 

woodstoves replace older, higher-polluting wood stoves, there will be an overall reduction of the emissions 

from these sources. The approach cited here was developed as part of a modeling exercise to estimate the 

expected benefits of the woodstoves change-out program (http://www.epa.gov/burnwise). Details of this 

approach can be found in Section 2.3.3 of the PM NAAQS Regulatory Impact Analysis (EPA, 2006).

The specific assumptions we made were:

 Fireplaces, source category code (SCC)=2104008001: increase 1%/year

 Old woodstoves, SCC=2104008002, 2104008010, or 2104008051: decrease 2%/year

 New woodstoves, SCC=2104008003, 2104008004, 2104008030, 2104008050, 2104008052 or 

2104008053: increase 2%/year

For the general woodstoves and fireplaces category (SCC 2104008000) we computed a weighted average 

distribution based on 19.4% fireplaces, 71.6% old woodstoves, 9.1% new woodstoves using 2002v3 

Platform missions for PM2.5. These fractions are based on the fraction of emissions from these processes in 

the states that did not have the “general woodstoves and fireplaces” SCC in the 2002v3 NEI. This approach 

results in an overall decrease of 1.056% per year for this source category. Table 4-3 presents the projection 

factors used to project the 2005 base case (2002 emissions) for residential wood combustion. 

Table 4-3. Projection Factors for growing year 2005 Residential Wood Combustion Sources

SCC SCC Description

Projection 

Factor

2104008000 Total: Woodstoves and Fireplaces 0.7043

2104008001 Fireplaces: General 1.28 2104008070 Outdoor Wood Burning Equipment

2104008002 Fireplaces: Insert; non-EPA certified

2104008010 Woodstoves: General 0.44

2104008051 Non-catalytic Woodstoves: Non-EPA certified

2104008003 Fireplaces: Insert; EPA certified; non-catalytic

1.56

2104008004 Fireplaces: Insert; EPA certified; catalytic

2104008030 Catalytic Woodstoves: General

2104008050 Non-catalytic Woodstoves: EPA certified

2104008052 Non-catalytic Woodstoves: Low Emitting

2104008053 Non-catalytic Woodstoves: Pellet Fired

4.2.3 Gasoline Stage II growth and control (nonpt, ptnonipm)

Emissions from Stage II gasoline operations in the 2005 base case are contained in both nonpt and ptnonipm 

sectors. The only SCC in the nonpt inventory used for gasoline Stage II emissions is 2501060100 (Storage 

and Transport; Petroleum and Petroleum Product Storage; Gasoline Service Stations; Stage II: Total). The 

following SIC and SCC codes are associated with gasoline Stage II emissions in the ptnonipm sector:

 SIC 5541 (Automotive Dealers & Service Stations, Gasoline Service Stations, Gasoline service 

stations)

 SCC 40600401 (Petroleum and Solvent Evaporation;Transportation and Marketing of Petroleum 

Products;Filling Vehicle Gas Tanks - Stage II;Vapor Loss w/o Controls)
20

 SCC 40600402 (Petroleum and Solvent Evaporation;Transportation and Marketing of Petroleum 

Products;Filling Vehicle Gas Tanks - Stage II;Liquid Spill Loss w/o Controls)

 SCC 40600403 (Petroleum and Solvent Evaporation;Transportation and Marketing of Petroleum 

Products;Filling Vehicle Gas Tanks - Stage II;Vapor Loss w/o Controls)

 SCC 40600499 (Petroleum and Solvent Evaporation;Transportation and Marketing of Petroleum 

Products;Filling Vehicle Gas Tanks - Stage II;Not Classified

We used a consistent approach across nonpt and ptnonipm to project these gasoline stage II emissions. The 

approach involved computing state-level VOC-specific projection factors from the state-level 

MOVES2010a-based results for onroad refueling, using ratios of future–year 2030 refueling emissions to 

2005 base-case emissions. The approach accounts for three elements of refueling growth and control: (1) 

activity growth (due to VMT growth as input into MOVES2010a), (2) emissions reductions from Stage II 

control programs at gasoline stations, and (3) emissions reductions resulting from the phase-in over time of 

newer vehicles with onboard Stage II vehicle controls. We assumed that all areas with Stage II controls in 

2005 continue to have Stage II controls in 2030.

We computed VOC, benzene and naphthalene projection factors at a county-specific, annual resolution as 

shown below; note that naphthalene, while provided by MOVES2010a, is not used in the HDGHG Rule:

PF_VOC[state, future year] = VOC_RFL[state, future year]/VOC_RFL[state, 2005],

PF_BENZENE[state, future year] = BENZENE_RFL[state, future year]/ BENZENE _RFL[state, 2005], and 

PF_NAPHTHALENE[state, future year] = PF_VOC[state, future year]

where VOC_RFL is the VOC refueling emissions for onroad sources from MOVES2010a, and

BENZENE_RFL is the BENZENE refueling emissions for onroad sources from MOVES2010a

We applied these projection factors to both nonpt and ptnonipm sector gasoline stage II sources.

Chemical speciation uses certain VOC HAPs for some sources, specifically, benzene, acetaldehyde, 

formaldehyde, and methanol (BAFM). The VOC HAPs are used for sources that have consistent VOC and 

VOC HAPs using various criteria as described in the SectionError! Reference source not found.Error! 

Reference source not found. in the CSAPR TSD 

(ftp://ftp.epa.gov/EmisInventory/2005v4_2/transportrulefinal_eitsd_28jun2011.pdf), and these sources are 

called “integrated” sources. The nonpoint gasoline stage II emissions are an integrated source, and so the 

VOC HAPs are also projected based on ratios of future-year and base-year VOC. The only two VOC HAPs 

emitted from refueling are benzene and naphthalene, and both of these were projected consistently with 

VOC. However, naphthalene was not used in the chemical speciation (it is not B,A,F or M pollutant) and 

was therefore not used for this effort. Therefore, only benzene was used as part of the speciation for the 

nonpt sector gasoline stage II sources. The entire ptnonipm inventory is considered “no-integrate” because 

VOC and VOC HAP emission estimates were not found to be of the same (consistent) data source. 

Therefore ptnonipm gasoline stage II sources did not use the projected benzene as part of the speciation, but 

rather used VOC speciation to estimate benzene.

4.2.4 Portable fuel container growth and control (nonpt)

We obtained future-year VOC emissions from Portable Fuel Containers (PFCs) from inventories developed 

and modeled for the EPA’s MSAT2 rule (EPA, 2007b). The 10 PFC SCCs are summarized below (note that 

the full SCC descriptions for these SCCs include “Storage and Transport; Petroleum and Petroleum Product 

Storage” as the beginning of the description). 
21

 2501011011 Residential Portable Fuel Containers: Permeation

 2501011012 Residential Portable Fuel Containers: Evaporation

 2501011013 Residential Portable Fuel Containers: Spillage During Transport

 2501011014 Residential Portable Fuel Containers: Refilling at the Pump: Vapor Displacement

 2501011015 Residential Portable Fuel Containers: Refilling at the Pump: Spillage

 2501012011 Commercial Portable Fuel Containers: Permeation

 2501012012 Commercial Portable Fuel Containers: Evaporation

 2501012013 Commercial Portable Fuel Containers: Spillage During Transport

 2501012014 Commercial Portable Fuel Containers: Refilling at the Pump: Vapor Displacement

 2501012015 Commercial Portable Fuel Containers: Refilling at the Pump: Spillage

Additional information on the PFC inventories is available in Section 2.2.3 of the documentation for the 

2002 Platform (http://www.epa.gov/ttn/chief/emch/index.html#2002). 

The future-year emissions reflect projected increases in fuel consumption, state programs to reduce PFC 

emissions, standards promulgated in the MSAT2 rule, and impacts of the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) on 

gasoline volatility. Future-year emissions for PFCs were available for 2010, 2015, 2020, and 2030. Benzene 

was used in VOC speciation for the air quality model through the modification of VOC speciation profiles 

calculations (no other BAFM HAPs are emitted from PFCs).

4.2.5 Aircraft growth (ptnonipm)

These 2005 point-source emissions are projected to future years by applying activity growth using data on 

itinerant (ITN) operations at airports. The ITN operations are defined as aircraft take-offs whereby the 

aircraft leaves the airport vicinity and lands at another airport, or aircraft landings whereby the aircraft has 

arrived from outside the airport vicinity. We used projected ITN information available from the Federal 

Aviation Administration’s (FAA) Terminal Area Forecast (TAF) System: 

http://www.apo.data.faa.gov/main/taf.asp (publication date January 2010). This information is available for 

approximately 3,300 individual airports, for all years up to 2030. We aggregated and applied this 

information at the national level by summing the airport-specific (U.S. airports only) ITN operations to 

national totals by year and by aircraft operation, for each of the four available operation types: commercial, 

general, air taxi and military. We computed growth factors for each operation type by dividing future-year 

ITN by 2005-year ITN. We assigned factors to inventory SCCs based on the operation type. 

The methods that the FAA used for developing the ITN data in the TAF are documented in:

http://www.faa.gov/data_research/aviation/aerospace_forecasts/2009-

2025/media/2009%20Forecast%20Doc.pdf

Table 4-4 provides the national growth factors for aircraft; all factors are applied to year 2005 emissions. 

For example, year 2030 commercial aircraft emissions are 50.59% higher than year 2005 emissions.

Table 4-4. Factors used to project 2005 base-case aircraft emissions to year 2030

SCC SCC Description Projection Factor

2275001000 Military aircraft 1.0275

2275020000 Commercial aircraft 1.5059

2275050000 General aviation 0.9916

2275060000 Air taxi 1.0259

27501015 Internal Combustion Engines;Fixed Wing Aircraft L & TO 

Exhaust;Military;Jet Engine: JP-5

1.0275

27502001 Internal Combustion Engines;Fixed Wing Aircraft L & TO 

Exhaust;Commercial;Piston Engine: Aviation Gas 1.5059
22

SCC SCC Description Projection Factor

27502011 Internal Combustion Engines;Fixed Wing Aircraft L & TO 

Exhaust;Commercial;Jet Engine: Jet A 1.5059

27505001 Internal Combustion Engines;Fixed Wing Aircraft L & TO 

Exhaust;Civil;Piston Engine: Aviation Gas 0.9916

27505011 Internal Combustion Engines;Fixed Wing Aircraft L & TO 

Exhaust;Civil;Jet Engine: Jet A 0.9916

27601014 Internal Combustion Engines;Rotary Wing Aircraft L & TO 

Exhaust;Military;Jet Engine: JP-4

1.0275

27601015 Internal Combustion Engines;Rotary Wing Aircraft L & TO 

Exhaust;Military;Jet Engine: JP-5

1.0275

We did not apply growth factors to any point sources with SCC 27602011 (Internal Combustion Engines; 

Rotary Wing Aircraft L & TO Exhaust; Commercial; Jet Engine: Jet A) because the facility names 

associated with these point sources appeared to represent industrial facilities rather than airports. This SCC 

is only in one county, Santa Barbara, California (State/County FIPS 06083).

None of our aircraft emission projections account for any control programs. We considered the NOX

standard adopted by the International Civil Aviation Organization’s (ICAO) Committee on Aviation 

Environmental Protection (CAEP) in February 2004, which is expected to reduce NOX by approximately 2% 

in 2015 and 3% in 2020. However, this rule, signed July 2011 (see http://www.epa.gov/otaq/aviation.htm),

was not adopted as an EPA (or U.S.) rule prior to HDGHG modeling; therefore, the effects of this rule were 

not included in the future-year emissions projections.

4.2.6 Stationary source control programs, consent decrees & settlements, and plant 

closures (ptnonipm, nonpt)

We applied emissions reduction factors to the 2005 emissions for particular sources in the ptnonipm and 

nonpt sectors to reflect the impact of stationary-source control programs including consent decrees, 

settlements, and plant closures. Some of the controls described in this section were obtained from comments 

on the CSAPR proposal. Here we describe the contents of the controls and closures for the 2030 reference

case. Detailed summaries of the impacts of the control programs are provided in Appendix D of the CSAPR 

TSD: ftp://ftp.epa.gov/EmisInventory/2005v4_2/transportrulefinal_eitsd_appendices_28jun2011.pdf.

Controls from the NOX SIP call were assumed to have been implemented by 2005 and captured in the 2005 

base case (2005v2 point inventory). This assumption was confirmed by review of the 2005 NEI that showed 

reductions from Large Boiler/Turbines and Large Internal Combustion Engines in the Northeast states 

covered by the NOx SIP call. The future-year base controls consist of the following:

 We did not include MACT rules where compliance dates were prior to 2005, because we assumed 

these were already reflected in the 2005 inventory. The EPA OAQPS Sector Policies and Programs 

Division (SPPD) provided all controls information related to the MACT rules, and this information is 

as consistent as possible with the preamble emissions reduction percentages for these rules.

 Various emissions reductions from the CSAPR comments, including but not limited to: fuel 

switching at units, shutdowns, future-year emission limits, ozone SIP VOC controls for some sources 

in Virginia and Connecticut, and state and local control programs.

 Evolutionary information gathering of plant closures (i.e., emissions were zeroed out for future years) 

were also included where information indicated that the plant was actually closed after the 2005 base 

year and prior to CSAPR and HDGHG modeling that began in the fall of 2010. We also applied unit 

and plant closures received from the CSAPR comments. However, plants projected to close in the 
23

future (post-2010) were not removed in the future years because these projections can be inaccurate 

due to economic improvements. We also applied cement kiln (unit) and cement plant closures 

discussed later in Section 4.2.6.1. More detailed information on the overall state-level impacts of all 

control programs and projection datasets, including units and plants closed in the 2012 and 2014 

base-case ptnonipm inventories are provided in Appendix D of the CSAPR TSD: 

ftp://ftp.epa.gov/EmisInventory/2005v4_2/transportrulefinal_eitsd_appendices_28jun2011.pdf. The 

magnitude of all unit and plant closures on the non-EGU point (ptnonipm) sector 2005 base-case 

emissions is shown in Table 4-5 below.

Table 4-5. Summary of Non-EGU Emission Reductions Applied to the 2005 Inventory due to Unit and 

Plant Closures

CO NH3 NOX PM10 PM2.5 SO2 VOC

Reductions 125,162 636 109,237 21,143 12,600 190,734 26,750

 In addition to plant closures, we included the effects of the Department of Justice Settlements and 

Consent Decrees on the non-EGU (ptnonipm) sector emissions. We also included estimated impacts 

of HAP standards per Section 112, 129 of the Clean Air Act on the non-EGU (ptnonipm) and 

nonpoint (nonpt) sector emissions, based on expected CAP co-benefits to sources in these sectors.

 Numerous controls have compliance dates beyond 2008; these include refinery and the Office of 

Compliance and Enforcement (OECA) consent decrees, Department of Justice (DOJ) settlements, as 

well as most national VOC MACT controls. Additional OECA consent decree information is 

provided in Appendix B of the Proposed Toxics Rule TSD: 

http://www.epa.gov/ttn/chief/emch/toxics/proposed_toxics_rule_appendices.pdf. The detailed data 

used are available at the website listed in Section 1.

 Refinery consent decrees controls at the facility and SCC level (collected through internal 

coordination on refineries by the EPA).

 Fuel sulfur fuel limits were enforceable for Maine, New Jersey and New York. These fuel limits 

were incremental and not applicable until after 2012.

 Criteria air pollutant (cap) reductions a cobenefit to RICE NESHAP controls, including SO2 RICE 

cobenefit controls.

 We applied New York State Implementation Plan available controls for the 1997 8-hour Ozone 

standard for non-EGU point and nonpoint NOX and VOC sources based on NY State Department of 

Environmental Conservation February 2008 guidance. These reductions are found in Appendix J in: 

http://www.dec.ny.gov/docs/air_pdf/NYMASIP7final.pdf. See Section 3.2.6 in the CSAPR TSD: 

ftp://ftp.epa.gov/EmisInventory/2005v4_2/transportrulefinal_eitsd_28jun2011.pdf.

Most of the control programs were applied as replacement controls, which means that any existing percent 

reductions (“baseline control efficiency”) reported in the NEI were removed prior to the addition of the 

percent reductions due to these control programs. Exceptions to replacement controls are “additional” 

controls, which ensure that the controlled emissions match desired reductions regardless of the baseline 

control efficiencies in the NEI. We used the “additional controls” approach for many permit limits, 

settlements and consent decrees where specific plant and multiple-plant-level reductions/targets were desired 

and at municipal waste landfills where VOC was reduced 75% via a MACT control using projection factors 

of 0.25.
24

4.2.6.1 Reductions from the Portland Cement NESHAP

As indicated in Table 4-1, the Industrial Sectors Integrated Solutions (ISIS) model (EPA, 2010) was used to 

project the cement industry component of the ptnonipm emissions modeling sector to 2013. There were no 

future year estimates for year 2030, so 2013 estimates were used for the 2030 Reference case. This approach 

provided reductions of criteria and hazardous air pollutants, including mercury. The ISIS cement emissions 

were developed in support for the Portland Cement NESHAPs and the NSPS for the Portland cement 

manufacturing industry.

The ISIS model produced a Portland Cement NESHAP policy case of multi-pollutant emissions for 

individual cement kilns (emission inventory units) that were relevant for years 2013 through 2017. These 

ISIS-based emissions included information on new cement kilns, facility and unit-level closures, and updated 

policy case emissions at existing cement kilns. The units that opened or closed before 2010 were included in 

the projections as were the ISIS-based policy case predictions of emissions reductions and activity growth.

The ISIS model results for the future show a continuation of the recent trend in the cement sector of the 

replacement of lower capacity, inefficient wet and long dry kilns with bigger and more efficient preheater 

and precalciner kilns. Multiple regulatory requirements such as the NESHAP and NSPS currently apply to 

the cement industry to reduce CAP and HAP emissions. Additionally, state and local regulatory

requirements might apply to individual cement facilities depending on their locations relative to ozone and 

PM2.5 nonattainment areas. The ISIS model provides the emission reduction strategy that balances: 1) 

optimal (least cost) industry operation, 2) cost-effective controls to meet the demand for cement, and 3) 

emission reduction requirements over the time period of interest. Table 4-6 shows the magnitude of the 

ISIS-based cement industry reductions in the future-year emissions that represent 2013 (and 2030 for 

HDGHG), and the impact that these reductions have on total stationary non-EGU point source (ptnonipm) 

emissions.

Table 4-6. Future-year ISIS-based cement industry annual reductions (tons/yr) 

for the non-EGU (ptnonipm) sector

Pollutant

Cement Industry 

emissions in 2005

Decrease in cement 

industry emissions 

in 2030 vs 2005

% decrease in 

ptnonipm from 

cement reduction

NOX 193,000 56,740 2.4%

PM2.5 14,400 7,840 1.8%

SO2 128,400 106,000 5.0%

VOC 6,900 5,570 0.4%

HCl 2,900 2,220 4.5%

4.2.6.2 Boiler reductions not associated with the MACT rule

The Boiler MACT ICR collected data on existing controls. We used an early version of a data base 

developed for that rulemaking entitled “survey_database_2008_results2.mdb” (EPA-HQ-OAR-2002-0058-

0788) which is posted under the Technical Information for the Boiler MACT major source rule 

(http://www.epa.gov/ttn/atw/boiler/boilerpg.html). We extracted all controls that were installed after 2005,

determined a percent reduction, and verified with source owners that these controls were actively in use. In 

many situations we learned that the controls were on site but were not in use. A summary of the plant-unit 

specific reductions that were verified to be actively in use are summarized in Table 4-7.
25

Table 4-7. State-level non-MACT Boiler Reductions from ICR Data Gathering

State Pollutant

Pre-controlled 

Emissions 

(tons)

Controlled 

Emissions 

(tons)

Reductions 

(tons)

Percent 

Reduction 

%

Michigan NOX 907 544 363 40

North Carolina SO2 652 65 587 90

Virginia SO2 3379 338 3041 90

Washington SO2 639 383 256 40

North Carolina HCl 31 3 28 90

4.2.6.3 RICE NESHAP

There are three rulemakings for National Emission Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants (NESHAP) for 

Reciprocating Internal Combustion Engines (RICE). These rules reduce HAPs from existing and new RICE 

sources. In order to meet the standards, existing sources with certain types of engines will need to install 

controls. In addition to reducing HAPs, these controls also reduce CAPs, specifically, CO, NOX, VOC, PM, 

and SO2. In 2014 and beyond, compliance dates have passed for all three rules; thus all three rules are 

included in the 2030 HDGHG emissions projection. 

The rules can be found at http://www.epa.gov/ttn/atw/rice/ricepg.html and are listed below:

 National Emission Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants for Reciprocating Internal Combustion 

Engines; Final Rule (69 FR 33473) published 06/15/04

 National Emission Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants for Reciprocating Internal Combustion 

Engines; Final Rule (FR 9648 ) published 03/03/10

 National Emission Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants for Reciprocating Internal Combustion 

Engines; Final Rule (75 FR 51570) published 08/20/2010

The difference among these three rules is that they focus on different types of engines, different facility types 

(major for HAPs, versus area for HAPs) and different engine sizes based on horsepower (HP). In addition, 

they have different compliance dates. We project CAPs from the 2005 NEI RICE sources, based on the 

requirements of the rule for existing sources only because the inventory includes only existing sources and 

the current projection approach does not estimate emissions from new sources.

A complete discussion on the methodology to estimate RICE controls is provided in Appendix F in the 

Proposed MATS Rule TSD: 

http://www.epa.gov/ttn/chief/emch/toxics/proposed_toxics_rule_appendices.pdf. Impacts of the RICE 

controls on stationary non-EGU emissions (nonpt and ptnonipm sectors), excluding WRAP, Texas, and 

Oklahoma oil and gas emissions (see Section 4.2.7) are provided in Table 4-8.

Table 4-8. National Impact of RICE Controls on 2030 Non-EGU Projections

CO NOX PM10 PM2.5 SO2 VOC

Reductions 116,434 111,749 1,595 1,368 21,957 14,669

4.2.6.4 Fuel sulfur rules

Fuel sulfur rules that were signed (enforceable) at the time of the HDGHG emissions processing are limited 

to Maine, New Jersey and New York. Several other states have fuel sulfur rules that were in development 
26

but not finalized prior to CSAPR and HDGHG Rule emissions processing: 

http://www.ilta.org/LegislativeandRegulatory/MVNRLM/NEUSASulfur%20Rules_09.2010.pdf. 

The fuel sulfur content for all home heating oil SCCs in 2005 is assumed to by 3000 part per million (ppm). 

Effective July 1, 2012, New York requires all heating oil sold in New York to contain no more than 15ppm 

of sulfur, thus reducing SO2 emissions by 99.5% for post-2012 (2030) projections. These New York sulfur 

content reductions are further discussed here:

http://switchboard.nrdc.org/blogs/rkassel/governor_paterson_signs_new_la.html.

The New Jersey year 2017 standard of 15ppm (assuming 500ppm baseline for Kersone) sulfur content yields 

a 96.25% SO2 emissions reduction for kersone (fuel #1). The New Jersey sulfur content reductions are 

discussed here: http://njtoday.net/2010/09/01/nj-adopts-rule-limiting-sulfur-content-in-fuel-oil/.

The Maine fuel sulfur rule effective January 1, 2014 reduces sulfur to 15ppm, resulting in a 99.5% reduction 

from 3000 ppm. These Maine sulfur content reductions are discussed here: 

http://www.mainelegislature.org/legis/bills/bills_124th/billpdfs/SP062701.pdf.

The impact of these fuel sulfur content reductions on SO2 is shown in Table 4-9.

Table 4-9. Impact of Fuel Sulfur Controls on 2014 Non-EGU Projections

State SO2 Reductions

Maine 18,470

New Jersey 998

New York 54,431

Total 73,898

4.2.7 Oil and gas projections in TX, OK, and non-California WRAP states (nonpt)

For the 2005v4.2 platform, we incorporated updated 2005 oil and gas emissions from Texas and Oklahoma. 

For Texas oil and gas production, we used the last available future year, year 2021, estimates from the Texas 

Commission of Environmental Quality (TCEQ) and used them as described in: 

http://www.tceq.state.tx.us/assets/public/implementation/air/am/contracts/reports/ei/5820783985FY0901-

20090715-ergi-Drilling_Rig_EI.pdf.

We also received 2008 data for Oklahoma that we used as the best available data to represent 2030. We

utilized the latest available future year, year 2018, Phase II WRAP oil and gas emissions data for the nonCalifornia Western Regional Air Partnership (WRAP) states to represent year 2030. RICE NESHAP 

reductions, which are effective by year 2014, were applied to the year 2008 Oklahoma oil and gas inventory

but not applied to the 2021 TCEQ oil and gas estimates or 2018 WRAP Phase II oil and gas inventory.

For Oklahoma, we applied CO, NOX, SO2 and VOC emissions reductions from the RICE NESHAP, which 

we assumed has some applicability to this industry (see Appendix F in the Proposed Toxics Rule TSD: 

http://www.epa.gov/ttn/chief/emch/toxics/proposed_toxics_rule_appendices.pdf). 

Table 4-10 shows the 2005 and 2030 NOX and SO2 emissions including RICE reductions for Oklahoma.

Table 4-10. Oil and Gas NOX and SO2 Emissions for 2005 and 2030 including additional reductions due to 

the RICE NESHAP

NOX PM2.5 SO2 VOC

2005 2030 2005 2030 2005 2030 2005 2030
27

Alaska 836 453 62 1 68 12

Arizona 13 15 37 49

Colorado 32,188 33,517 350 11 35,500 43,639

Montana 10,617 13,880 640 6 9,187 14,110

Nevada 71 63 1 0 105 163

New Mexico 61,674 74,648 369 12 215,636 267,846

North Dakota 6,040 20,869 688 4 8,988 17,968

Oklahoma 39,668 42,402 1,918 2,231 1,014 2 155,908 163,598

Oregon 61 44 19 14

South Dakota 566 557 43 0 370 562

Texas 42,854 26,061 2,945 435 5,977 33 4,337 1,504

Utah 6,896 6,297 149 1 43,403 81,890

Wyoming 36,172 34,142 541 3 166,939 304,748

Total 237,656 252,948 4,862 2,666 9,834 73 640,498 896,104

4.3 Mobile source projections

The 2030 HDGHG Reference case inventories are identical to 2030 HDGHG Control case inventories except 

for the MOVES2010a-based (onroad) emissions (and some gasoline distribution emissions in the ptnonipm 

and nonpt sectors). The 2030 Control case inventories are discussed in Section 5. 

Mobile source monthly inventories of onroad and nonroad mobile emissions were created for 2030 using a 

combination of the NMIM and MOVES2010a models. Future-year emissions reflect onroad mobile control 

programs including the Light-Duty Vehicle Tier 2 Rule, the Onroad Heavy-Duty Rule, and the Mobile 

Source Air Toxics (MSAT2) final rule. Nonroad mobile emissions reductions for these years include 

regulations affecting locomotives, various nonroad engines including diesel engines and various marine 

engine types, fuel sulfur content, and evaporative emissions.

Onroad mobile sources are comprised of several components and are discussed in the next subsection (4.3.1). 

Nonroad mobile emission projections are discussed in subsection 4.3.1.1. Locomotives and Class 1 and 

Class 2 commercial marine vessel (C1/C2 CMV) projections are discussed in subsection 4.3.2, and Class 3 

(C3) CMV projected emissions are discussed in subsection 4.3.3.

4.3.1 Onroad mobile (on_noadj, on_moves_runpm, on_moves_startpm)

The onroad emissions were primarily based on the 2010 version of the Motor Vehicle Emissions Simulator 

(MOVES2010a) – the same version that was used for 2005 HDGHG. The same MOVES-based PM2.5

temperature adjustment factors were applied as were used in 2005 for running mode emissions; however, 

cold start emissions used year-specific temperature adjustment factors. The use of the same temperature 

adjustments nationwide for gasoline PM is not a limitation, since the temperature adjustments in MOVES for 

gasoline PM do not depend on county-specific inputs.
28

California onroad (on_noadj)

California onroad inventory: California year 2030 complete CAP/HAP onroad inventories are monthly

onroad emissions and are based on March 2007 California Air Resources Board (CARB) data (Martin 

Johnson: mjohnson@arb.ca.gov). Like year 2005 emissions, future-year California NH3 emissions are from 

MOVES runs for California, disaggregated to the county level using NMIM. We estimated HAP emissions 

by applying HAP-to-CAP ratios computed from California 2005 NEI submittal provided by EPA in 12/2007. 

This was done because the CARB submittal from March 2007 did not include estimates for HAPs. We 

retained only those HAPs that were also estimated by NMIM for nonroad mobile sources; all other HAPs

were dropped.

Onroad mobile sector with no adjustment for daily temperature (on_noadj)

As discussed in Section 2, the MOVES2010a model was used for all vehicles, road types, and pollutants. 

Vehicle Miles Travelled (VMT) was projected using growth rates from the Department of Energy’s 

AEO2011. We used MOVES2010a to create emissions by state, SCC, pollutant, emissions mode and month. 

We then allocated these emissions to counties using ratios based on 2030 NMIM county-level data by state, 

SCC, pollutant, and emissions mode. While the EPA intends to replace this approach with a county-specific 

implementation of MOVES for use in future regulatory actions, this approach was the best approach 

available at the time of this modeling.

Onroad PM gasoline running and cold start mode sectors (on_moves_startpm and on_moves_runpm)

MOVES-based cold start and running mode emissions consist of gasoline exhaust speciated PM and 

naphthalene. These pre-temperature-adjusted emissions at 72°F are projected to year 2030 from year 2005 

inventories using the 2030-specific runs of MOVES2010a. VMT were projected using growth rates from the 

AEO2009. As with the on_noadj sector, the 2030 MOVES2010a data were created at the state-month level, 

and the 2030 NMIM results were used to disaggregate the state level results to the county level.

MOVES-based temperature adjustment factors were applied to gridded, hourly emissions using gridded, 

hourly meteorology. As seen in Figure 4-1, for year 2030, we used the same temperature adjustment factors 

as the 2005 base case for both start and running modes. However, cold start temperature adjustment factors 

decrease in future years, and for year 2030 processing, we updated the temperature adjustment curves for 

these cold start emissions. Note that running exhaust temperature adjustment factors are the same for all 

years. Also, it is worth noting that the running mode gasoline exhaust emissions are considerably larger than 

cold start mode gasoline exhaust emissions before application of the temperature adjustments.
29

Figure 4-1. MOVES exhaust temperature adjustment functions for 2005 and 2030

4.3.1.1 Nonroad mobile (nonroad)

This sector includes monthly exhaust, evaporative and refueling emissions from nonroad engines (not 

including commercial marine, aircraft, and locomotives) derived from NMIM for all states except California. 

Like the onroad emissions, NMIM provides nonroad emissions for VOC by three emission modes: exhaust, 

evaporative and refueling. Unlike the onroad sector, nonroad refueling emissions for nonroad sources are 

not included in the nonpoint (nonpt) sector and so are retained in this sector.

With the exception of California, U.S. emissions for the nonroad sector (defined as the equipment types 

covered by NMIM) were created using a consistent NMIM-based approach as was used for 2005, but 

projected for 2030. The 2030 NMIM runs utilized the NR05d-Bond-final version of NONROAD (which is 

equivalent to NONROAD2008a). The future-year emissions account for increases in activity (based on 

NONROAD model default growth estimates of future-year equipment population) and changes in fuels and 

engines that reflect implementation of national regulations and local control programs that impact each year 

differently due to engine turnover. We have not included voluntary programs such as programs encouraging 

either no refueling or evening refueling on Ozone Action Days and diesel retrofit programs. 

The national regulations incorporated in the modeling are those promulgated prior to December 2009, and 

beginning about 1990. Recent rules include:

 “Clean Air Nonroad Diesel Final Rule - Tier 4”: (http://www.epa.gov/nonroaddiesel/2004fr.htm ), 

published June 29, 2004, and,

 Control of Emissions from Nonroad Large Spark-Ignition Engines, and Recreational Engines (Marine 

and Land-Based), November 8, 2002 (“Pentathalon Rule”).

 OTAQ’s Locomotive Marine Rule, March 2008: 

(http://www.epa.gov/otaq/regs/nonroad/420f08004.htm)

 OTAQ’s Small Engine Spark Ignition (“Bond”) Rule, November 2008: 

(http://www.epa.gov/otaq/equip-ld.htm)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

-20-15-10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70

Adjustment Factor

Temperature (F)

Run Exhaust Both Years

Start Exhaust 2005

Start Exhaust 2030
30

All states except California:

OTAQ provided several runs of NMIM emissions for the LDGHG (control case) Rule that were blended 

together to create the 2030 HDGHG nonroad sector emissions. We used these same nonroad emissions for 

both the reference and control cases in HDGHG. Table 4-11 shows how the various NMIM runs were 

combined to create the non-California nonroad mobile inventories. The first component “2002v3-based 

2030 Base Case” is from the 2030 Base case in our 2002v3 platform for the SCCs listed in Table 4-11. 

OTAQ also provided diesel recreational marine (pleasure craft) emissions in November 2009. 

Table 4-11. Components of 2030 HDGHG Nonroad Sector

NMIM file SCCs Description of Nonroad 

SCCs

2002v3-based 2030 Base Case

2267x LPG equipment

2268x CNG equipment

2270x Diesel engines

2285002015,

2285006015

Railway maintenance

LdGhgN2030e0_nponzseg11dies.txt 22820200x Diesel recreationalmarine

LdGhgN2030e10.txt

2260x 2-stroke gasoline engines

2265x 4-stroke gasoline engines

228200x, 

228201x

Gasoline recreational 

marine

All NMIM data are based on AEO2007 fuels and NMIM county database NCD20080727. We converted 

emissions from monthly totals to monthly average-day values based the on number of days in each month. 

CO2 and all of California emissions were removed prior to creating SMOKE one record per line (ORL) files.

California nonroad:

California monthly nonroad emissions are year 2030 and are based on March 2007 California Air Resources 

Board (CARB) data (Martin Johnson: mjohnson@arb.ca.gov). NH3 emissions are from NMIM runs for 

California (same data as were used in 2030 from the 2002 v3 platform). We allocated refueling emissions to 

the gasoline equipment types based on evaporative mode VOC emissions from the 2002 v3 platform 2030 

NMIM data, and the refueling emissions were computed by multiplying SCC 2505000120 emissions by

0.61, to adjust to remove double counting with Portable Fuel Container inventory for California. We 

estimated HAP emissions by applying HAP-to-CAP ratios computed from the California data provided for 

the 2005 NEI v2, collected by EPA on 12/2007. This was done because the CARB submittal from March 

2007 did not include estimates for HAPs. We retained only those HAPs that are also estimated by NMIM 

for nonroad mobile sources; all other HAPs were dropped.

4.3.2 Locomotives and Class 1 & 2 commercial marine vessels (alm_no_c3)

Future year locomotive and Class 1 and Class 2 commercial marine vessel (CMV) emissions were calculated 

using projection factors that were computed based on national, annual summaries of locomotive emissions in 

2002 and year 2030. These national summaries were used to create national by-pollutant, by-SCC projection 

factors; these factors include final locomotive-marine controls and are provided in Table 4-12.
31

Table 4-12. Factors applied to year 2005 emissions to project locomotives and Class 1 and Class 2 

Commercial Marine Vessel Emissions to 2030

SCC SCC Description Pollutant

Projection 

Factor

2280002X00 Marine Vessels, Commercial;Diesel;Underway & port emissions CO 0.956

2280002X00 Marine Vessels, Commercial;Diesel;Underway & port emissions NH3 1.285

2280002X00 Marine Vessels, Commercial;Diesel;Underway & port emissions NOX 0.372

2280002X00 Marine Vessels, Commercial;Diesel;Underway & port emissions PM10 0.350

2280002X00 Marine Vessels, Commercial;Diesel;Underway & port emissions PM2.5 0.356

2280002X00 Marine Vessels, Commercial;Diesel;Underway & port emissions SO2 0.045

2280002X00 Marine Vessels, Commercial;Diesel;Underway & port emissions VOC 0.402

2285002006 Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Line Haul Locomotives: Class I Operations CO 1.640

2285002006 Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Line Haul Locomotives: Class I Operations NH3 1.627

2285002006 Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Line Haul Locomotives: Class I Operations NOX 0.357

2285002006 Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Line Haul Locomotives: Class I Operations PM10 0.260

2285002006 Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Line Haul Locomotives: Class I Operations PM2.5 0.263

2285002006 Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Line Haul Locomotives: Class I Operations SO2 0.006

2285002006 Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Line Haul Locomotives: Class I Operations VOC 0.293

2285002007 Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Line Haul Locomotives: Class II / III Operations CO 0.403

2285002007 Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Line Haul Locomotives: Class II / III Operations NH3 1.627

2285002007 Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Line Haul Locomotives: Class II / III Operations NOX 0.350

2285002007 Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Line Haul Locomotives: Class II / III Operations PM10 0.272

2285002007 Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Line Haul Locomotives: Class II / III Operations PM2.5 0.275

2285002007 Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Line Haul Locomotives: Class II / III Operations SO2 0.001

2285002007 Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Line Haul Locomotives: Class II / III Operations VOC 0.387

2285002008 Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Line Haul Locomotives: Passenger Trains (Amtrak) CO 1.188

2285002008 Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Line Haul Locomotives: Passenger Trains (Amtrak) NH3 1.627

2285002008 Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Line Haul Locomotives: Passenger Trains (Amtrak) NOX 0.241

2285002008 Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Line Haul Locomotives: Passenger Trains (Amtrak) PM10 0.148

2285002008 Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Line Haul Locomotives: Passenger Trains (Amtrak) PM2.5 0.149

2285002008 Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Line Haul Locomotives: Passenger Trains (Amtrak) SO2 0.005

2285002008 Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Line Haul Locomotives: Passenger Trains (Amtrak) VOC 0.136

2285002009 Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Line Haul Locomotives: Commuter Lines CO 1.172

2285002009 Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Line Haul Locomotives: Commuter Lines NH3 1.627

2285002009 Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Line Haul Locomotives: Commuter Lines NOX 0.237

2285002009 Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Line Haul Locomotives: Commuter Lines PM10 0.146

2285002009 Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Line Haul Locomotives: Commuter Lines PM2.5 0.146

2285002009 Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Line Haul Locomotives: Commuter Lines SO2 0.005

2285002009 Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Line Haul Locomotives: Commuter Lines VOC 0.134

2285002010 Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Yard Locomotives CO 1.649

2285002010 Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Yard Locomotives NH3 1.627

2285002010 Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Yard Locomotives NOX 0.851

2285002010 Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Yard Locomotives PM10 0.690

2285002010 Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Yard Locomotives PM2.5 0.704

2285002010 Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Yard Locomotives SO2 0.007

2285002010 Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Yard Locomotives VOC 1.074

The future-year locomotive emissions account for increased fuel consumption based on Energy Information 

Administration (EIA) fuel consumption projections for freight rail, and emissions reductions resulting from 

emissions standards from the Final Locomotive-Marine rule (EPA, 2009). This rule lowered diesel sulfur 

content and tightened emission standards for existing and new locomotives and marine diesel emissions to 

lower future-year PM, SO2, and NOX, and is documented at: 

http://www.epa.gov/otaq/regs/nonroad/420f08004.htm. Voluntary retrofits under the National Clean Diesel 

Campaign (http://www.epa.gov/otaq/diesel/index.htm) are not included in our projections.
32

We applied HAP factors for VOC HAPs by using the VOC projection factors to obtain 1,3-butadiene, 

acetaldehyde, acrolein, benzene, and formaldehyde.

Class 1 and 2 CMV gasoline emissions (SCC = 2280004000) were not changed for future-year processing. 

C1/C2 diesel emissions (SCC = 2280002100 and 2280002200) were projected based on the Final 

Locomotive Marine rule national-level factors provided in Table 4-12. Similar to locomotives, VOC HAPs 

were projected based on the VOC factor.

Delaware provided updated future-year NOX, SO2, and PM emission estimates for C1/C2 CMV as part of the 

Transport Rule comments. These updated emissions were applied to the 2030 inventory and override the 

C1/C2 projection factors in Table 4-12. 

4.3.3 Class 3 commercial marine vessels (seca_c3)

The seca_c3 sector emissions data were provided by OTAQ in an ASCII raster format used since the SO2

Emissions Control Area-International Marine Organization (ECA-IMO) project began in 2005. The (S)ECA 

Category 3 (C3) commercial marine vessel 2002 base-case emissions were projected to year 2005 for the 

2005 base case and to year 2030 for the HDGHG future reference case, which includes ECA-IMO controls. 

An overview of the ECA-IMO project and future-year goals for reduction of NOX, SO2, and PM C3 

emissions can be found at: http://www.epa.gov/oms/regs/nonroad/marine/ci/420f09015.htm

The resulting coordinated strategy, including emission standards under the Clean Air Act for new marine 

diesel engines with per-cylinder displacement at or above 30 liters, and the establishment of Emission 

Control Areas is at: http://www.epa.gov/oms/oceanvessels.htm

These projection factors vary depending on geographic region and pollutant; where VOC HAPs are assigned 

the same growth rates as VOC. The projection factors used to create the 2030 seca_c3 sector emissions are 

provided in Table 4-13. Note that these factors are relative to 2002. Factors relative to 2005 can be 

computed from the 2002-2005 factors.

The geographic regions are described in the ECA Proposal technical support document: 

http://www.epa.gov/oms/regs/nonroad/marine/ci/420r09007-chap2.pdf. These regions extend up to 200 

nautical miles offshore, though less at international boundaries. North and South Pacific regions are divided 

by the Oregon-Washington border, and East Coast and Gulf Coast regions are divided east-west by roughly 

the upper Florida Keys just southwest of Miami.

The factors to compute HAP emission are based on emissions ratios discussed in the 2005v4 documentation

(ftp://ftp.epa.gov/EmisInventory/2005v4/2005_emissions_tsd_07jul2010.pdf). As with the 2005 base case, 

this sector uses CAP-HAP VOC integration.
33

Table 4-13. NOX, SO2, and PM2.5 Factors to Project Class 3 Commercial Marine Vessel emissions to 2030

Region NOX SO2 PM2.5 VOC

Alaska East 1.702 0.095 0.312 2.487

Alaska West 2.052 0.456 0.571 2.396

East Coast 1.072 0.123 0.470 3.464

Gulf Coast 0.688 0.079 0.303 2.217

Hawaii East 1.416 0.147 0.506 3.839

Hawaii West 2.783 0.733 0.871 3.842

North Pacific 0.874 0.098 0.348 2.528

South Pacific 1.232 0.166 0.589 4.225

Great Lakes 1.090 0.057 0.214 1.621

Outside ECA 2.427 0.623 0.745 3.417

4.4 Canada, Mexico, and Offshore sources (othar, othon, and othpt)

Emissions for Canada, Mexico, and offshore sources were not projected to future years, and are therefore the 

same as those used in the 2005 base case. Therefore, the Mexico emissions are based on year 1999, offshore 

oil is based on year 2005, and Canada is based on year 2006. For both Mexico and Canada, their responsible 

agencies did not provide future-year emissions that were consistent with the base year emissions.

5 2030 Control Case

The 2030 HDGHG Control case is intended to represent the emissions associated with use of the most likely

volume of ethanol after application of the greenhouse gas emissions standards for commercial medium-and 

heavy-duty on-highway vehicles and work trucks beginning with the 2014 model year (MY). The control 

case assumes improvements in fuel consumption or greenhouse gas emissions in MY 2014 through 2018. 

Similar to the reference case, the control case does not include fuel and emissions changes from the Energy

Independence and Security Act of 2007 (EISA), or the revised annual Renewable Fuel Standards (RFS2); 

however the Light Duty Greenhouse Gas (LDGHG) impacts are included in both this control case and the 

reference case discussed in section 4.

The 2030 Control case inventories differ from the reference case in only two components:

1) Gasoline distribution impacts in the non-EGU point (ptnonipm) and nonpoint sectors, and

2) MOVES2010a-based onroad mobile impacts to medium and heavy duty vehicles.

5.1 2030 Control Case Point and Nonpoint sources

The point sources for the 2030 HDGHG Control Case include the same emissions as the 2030 Reference

Case for the following point source emissions modeling sectors: US EGU point source (ptipm), sources from 

Mexico, Canada, and the Gulf of Mexico (othpt). The nonpoint sources for the 2030 HDGHG Control Case 

include the same emissions as the 2030 Reference Case for the following nonpoint source emissions 

modeling sectors: area fugitive dust (afdust), agricultural ammonia (ag), average-year fires (avefire) and 

sources from Mexico and Canada (othar).

The HDGHG year 2030 control case changes to the point and nonpoint emissions are limited to Annual 

Energy Outlook (AEO) year2010-based upstream adjustments: refinery supply estimates and estimated 

reductions in consumption that impact crude production and transport/distribution emissions from the 

HDGHG control strategy for medium and heavy duty vehicles. The only sectors impacted by these control 

case adjustments are the ptnonipm (point) and nonpt (nonpoint) sectors. VOC speciation changes from the 

reference to the control case are discussed in Section 3.
34

Upstream adjustments to oil refining, crude production, and transport were supplied by OTAQ on 

12/16/2010 in the Excel® workbook “HDGHG_AQADJ_121610.xlsx”. These adjustments reduce all 

pollutant emissions from the 2030 reference case and are summarized below in Table 5-1.

Table 5-1. Upstream HDGHG Control Case adjustments

Category Sectors Impacted

% 

Reduction

Cumulative Emissions Reductions

NOX PM2.5 SO2 VOC

Production nonpt and ptnonipm 0.13%

Refinery nonpt and ptnonipm 1.27% 1,667 308 1,821 1,794

Transport nonpt and ptnonipm 0.13%

5.2 2030 Control Case Mobile sources

The onroad mobile and nonroad mobile sources for the 2030 HDGHG Control Case include the same 

emissions as the 2030 Reference Case for the following emissions modeling sectors: US nonroad mobile 

(nonroad), US locomotives and non-C3 commercial marine (alm_no_c3), C3 commercial marine (seca_c3), 

Canada and Mexico onroad mobile emissions (othon) and Canada and Mexico nonroad emissions (also in the 

othar sector with Canada and Mexico stationary sources). California onroad mobile emissions were also not 

changed in the control case except for NH3, where MOVES control case emissions replaced MOVES 

reference case NH3 estimates.

The HDGHG year 2030 control case changes to the mobile sectors are limited to the MOVES2010a-based 

onroad non-California (except NH3) inventories and impact the following onroad mobile emissions modeling 

sectors: on_moves_runpm, on_moves_startpm and on_noadj.

Similar to the 2005 HDGHG and 2030 HDGHG reference cases, we allocated the state-SCC MOVES data to 

county-SCC using ratios developed from the same 2030 NMIM county-SCC data as used in the 2030 

HDGHG reference case. Other than the different MOVES2010a emissions data, we used the same 

processing steps as described for the 2005 base and 2030 reference cases. VOC speciation changes from the 

reference to the control case are discussed in Section 3.

Control case onroad mobile reductions are provided in Table 5-2. Small increases in PM2.5 are the result of 

slight increases in auxiliary power unit emissions. 

Table 5-2. Onroad mobile reductions from HDGHG controls

NOX PM2.5 SO2 VOC

Reductions 215,639 -237 304 22,953

% Reduction from Reference case 11.9% -0.2% 1.3% 2.4%
35

6 References

EPA, 2005. Clean Air Interstate Rule Emissions Inventory Technical Support Document, U.S.

Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, March 005. 

Available at http://www.epa.gov/cair/pdfs/finaltech01.pdf.

EPA, 2006. Regulatory Impact Analyses, 2006 National Ambient Air Quality Standards for Particle 

Pollution. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, 

October, 2006. Docket # EPA-HQ-OAR-2001-0017, # EPAHQ-OAR-2006-0834. Available at 

http://www.epa.gov/ttn/ecas/ria.html.

EPA, 2007a. Guidance for Estimating VOC and NOx Emission Changes from MACT Rules, U.S. 

Environmental Protection Agency Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, Air Quality Policy

Division, Research Triangle Park, NC 27711, EPA-457/B-07-001, May 2007. Available at 

http://www.epa.gov/ttn/naaqs/ozone/o3imp8hr/documents/guidance/200705_epa457_b-07-

001_emission_changes_mact_rules.pdf.

EPA. 2007b. National Scale Modeling for the Final Mobile Source Air Toxics Rule, Office of Air Quality

Planning and Standards, Emissions Analysis and Monitoring Division, Research Triangle Park, NC 

27711, EPA 454/R-07-002, February 2007. Available at 

http://www.epa.gov/otaq/regs/toxics/454r07002.pdf

EPA, 2009. Regulatory Impact Analysis: Control of Emissions of Air Pollution from Locomotive Engines 

and Marine Compression Ignition Engines Less than 30 Liters Per Cylinder. U.S. Environmental 

Protection Agency Office of Transportation and Air Quality, Assessment and Standards Division, 

Ann Arbor, MI 48105, EPA420-R-08-001a, May 2009. Available at: 

http://www.epa.gov/otaq/regs/nonroad/420r08001a.pdf

EPA, 2010. Technical Support Document: The Industrial Sectors Integrated Solutions (ISIS) Model and the 

Analysis for the National Emission Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants and New Source 

Performance Standards for the Portland Cement Manufacturing Industry, U.S. Environmental 

Protection Agency, Sectors Policies and Program Division and Air Pollution Prevention and Control 

Division, Research Triangle Park, NC 27711, August 2010.

SRI, 2009. Southwest Research Insititute, Final Report prepared for Coordinating Research Council, Inc.: 

ACES Phase I: Phase 1 of the Advanced Collaborative Emissions Study, June 2009. Available at: 

http://www.crcao.org/reports/recentstudies2009/ACES%20Phase%201/ACES%20Phase1%20Final%

20Report%2015JUN2009.pdf
36

APPENDIX A

Modified HDGHG Equations to adapt pre-speciated diesel emissions from MOVES to air quality 

modeling species needed for CMAQ

As shown in equation (1) below, MOVES provides total PM2.5, PEC and PSO4. A remainder term, R, makes 

up the difference between the two species and the total PM2.5. 

MOVES total PM2.5 = PEC + PSO4 + R (1)

The R term includes POM, which consists of POC and the hydrogen and oxygen atoms attached to the 

carbon as part of the organic matter, PNO3, soil oxides and metals (also known as “crustal” and called 

METAL here), ammonium, and water, and thus can be also written as:

R = POM + PNO3 + METAL + NH4 + H20 (2)

To correctly calculate the five PM2.5 species needed for CMAQ, we first needed to break out the POC, 

PNO3, and PMFINE from R. Different calculations are used for light-duty diesel vehicles and heavy-duty 

diesel vehicles, since the speciation profiles for these are different. The speciation profiles used for these 

calculations are:

For both light duty diesel vehicles and heavy duty diesel vehicles, the SPECIATE 4.0 PM2.5 speciation 

profiles “3914” (HHDV) and “92042” (LDDV) will be used to help calculate the other species. At the time, 

OTAQ did not provide a justification for choosing this profile, but the fractions of metals and PNO3 are 

small and so presumably the choice does not matter too much as long as the smallest of those fractions is 

representative.

We computed the primary nitrate based on speciation profile 92011 from the SPECIATE4.1 database (Hsu et 

al., 2006) using equation (3) shown below.

PNO3 = PEC × FNO3 / FEC (3)

where,

FEC = Fraction of elemental carbon in speciation profile:

- LDDV: 57.4805% (based on profile 92042)2

- HDDV: 77.1241% (based on profile 3914)

FNO3 = Fraction of nitrate in speciation profile

- LDDV: 0.1141% (based on profile 3914, intentionally inconsistent)

- HDDV: 0.1141% (based on profile 3914)

To identify which sources should get the LDDV and which should get the HDDV approach, see Table 1, 

below.

Since CMAQ’s PMFINE species is the sum of soil oxides, metals, ammonium, and water, we needed to 

calculate all of its components. First, the metals and ammonium are computed using equations (4) and (5). 

Equation (5) is based on stoichiometric calculations.

 

2 All profile fractions provided in email from Catherine Yanca on 11/6/2009, 1:49pm in attachment “Equations for diesel MOVES 

speciation use in CMAQ 110609.doc”
37

METAL = PEC × Fmetal / FEC (4)

NH4 = (PNO3/MWNO3 +2 × PSO4/MWSO4) × MWNH4 (5)

where,

Fmetal = Fraction of metals in speciation profile (0.0026633)

MWSO4 = Molecular weight of sulfate (96.0576)

MWNO3 = Molecular weight of nitrate (62.0049)

MWNH4 = Molecular weight of ammonium (18.0383)

The final component of PMFINE is the non-carbon mass of organic carbon. To calculate the non-carbon 

mass, we first needed to compute organic carbon from the remainder term, R. 

A key assumption is that POM is a factor of 1.2 greater than the mass of primary organic carbon, which is 

also used in the CMAQ postprocessing software at EPA.

POM = 1.2 × POC (6)

Using this assumption and assuming that the H20 is negligible, the equation needed for the calculation of 

POC is shown in equations 7a and 7b for gasoline exhaust and diesel exhaust, respectively. As discussed in 

Section 2.3, for HDGHG, the NH4 component was removed for diesel exhaust only. 

Gasoline Exhaust: POC = 5/6 × (R – METAL – NH4 – PNO3) (7a)

Diesel Exhaust: POC = 5/6 × (R – METAL – PNO3) (7b)

See Appendix B of the 2005v4 TSD for more complete discussion on PM speciation for gasoline exhaust 

processes: ftp://ftp.epa.gov/EmisInventory/2005v4/2005_emissions_tsd_appendices_11may2010.pdf.

From equation (6), the non-carbon portion of the organic carbon matter is 20%, of the POC. By definition, 

PMFINE is the sum of the non-carbon portion of the mass, METAL and NH4. Thus, we computed 

PMFINE_72 using equations (8a and 8b) shown below for gasoline and diesel exhaust.

Gasoline Exhaust: PMFINE_72 = METAL + NH4 + 0.2 × POC_72 (8a)

Diesel Exhaust: PMFINE_72 = METAL + 0.2 × POC_72 (8b)

Equations 7a and 8a (with NH4) will be obsolete in all subsequent MOVES post-processing; we did not have 

time to reprocess the gasoline exhaust emissions for HDGHG; however, the computed NH4 component in 

gasoline exhaust was much smaller than for diesel exhaust so this impact should be negligible.

For mobile sources, we assumed that PMC is 8.6% of the PM2.5 mass. Equation (9) shows how we 

calculated it. 

PMC = 0.086 × (PMFINE + PEC + POC + PSO4 + PNO3) (9)

Table A-1. List of SCC groups for application of LDDV or HDDV approach

Approach SCC list

LDDV 2230001000 through 2230060334

HDDV 2230071110 through 2230075330

 

3 Value provided by Catherine Yanca and Joe Somers to OAQPS in email provided 11/5/2009
38

APPENDIX B

Inventory Data Files Used for Each HDGHG Modeling Case – SMOKE Input Inventory Datasets

In any of the following dataset names where the placeholder <mon> has been provided, this is intended to 

mean 12 separate files with the <mon> placeholder replaced with either jan, feb, mar, apr, may, jun, jul, aug, 

sep, oct, nov, or dec, each associated with a particular month of the year.
3

9

Table B-1. List of inventory data associated with HDGHG modeling cases.

Case Sector SMOKE Input Files

2005 Base

(2005cs_hdghg_05b)

ptipm Annual: ptinv_ptipm_2005cs_cap_27dec2010_txt_29dec2010_v1_orl.txt

Annual: ptinv_ptipm_2005cs_hap_27dec2010_txt_27dec2010_v0_orl.txt

Daily: ptday_ptipm_caphap_noncem_2005cs_05b_<month>_ida.txt

Daily: ptday_ptipm_caphap_cem_2005cs_05b_<month>_ida.txt

ptnonipm ptinv_ptnonipm_xportfrac_cap2005v2_2005cs_orl_06jan2011_v4_orl.txt

ptinv_ptnonipm_hap2005v2_2005cs_orl_04jan2011_v2_orl.txt

ptinv_ptnonipm_caphap_ethanol_plant_additions_2005_30jun2010_v3_orl.txt

ptinv_ptnonipm_xportfrac_2005cap_v1_from_2005ai_ND_ADM_plant_30jun2010_v0_orl.txt

ptinv_ptnonipm_2005hap_v1_from_2005ai_ND_ADM_plant_30jun2010_v0_orl.txt

afdust arinv_afdust_2002ad_xportfrac_26sep2007_v0_orl.txt

ag arinv_ag_cap2002nei_06nov2006_v0_orl.txt

alm_no_c3 arinv_lm_no_c3_hap2002v4_20feb2009_v0_orl.txt

arinv_lm_no_c3_cap2002v3_22dec2010_v1_orl.txt

nonpt arinv_nonpt_pf4_cap_nopfc_04jan2011_v5_orl.txt

arinv_nonpt_pf4_hap_nopfc_nobafmpesticidesplus_04jan2011_v3_orl.txt

arinv_pfc_2002_caphap_27dec2007_v0_orl.txt

arinv_nonpt_cap_2005_WRAP_OilGas_04feb2009_v0_orl.txt

arinv_nonpt_cap_2005_TCEQ_Oklahoma_OilGas_28may2010_v0_orl.txt

nonroad arinv_nonroad_caps_2005v2_<month>_revised_08sep2008_v0_orl.txt

arinv_nonroad_calif_caphap_2005v2_revised_<month>_23jun2010_v0_orl.txt

arinv_nonroad_haps_2005v2_<month>_revised_05sep2008_v0_orl.txt

on_noadj mbinv_on_noadj_MOVES_with_NO_NO2_HONO_2005cs_hdghg_<month>_24FEB2011_24feb2011_v0_orl.txt

mbinv_onroad_calif_caphap_2005v2_revised_<month>_16feb2011_v1_orl.txt

on_moves_runpm mbinv_on_moves_runpm_2005cs_hdghg_<month>_03FEB2011_03feb2011_v0_orl.txt

on_moves_startpm mbinv_on_moves_startpm_2005cs_hdghg_<month>_03FEB2011_03feb2011_v0_orl.txt

seca_c3 ptinv_eca_imo_CANADA_SCC_fix_vochaps_2005_09DEC2010_09dec2010_v0_orl.txt

ptinv_eca_imo_CANADA_SCC_fix_caps_2005_09DEC2010_09dec2010_v0_orl.txt

ptinv_eca_imo_fixFIPS_US_wDE_andSCC_fix_caps_2005_09DEC2010_09dec2010_v0_orl.txt

ptinv_eca_imo_fixFIPS_US_andSCC_fix_vochaps_2005_09DEC2010_09dec2010_v0_orl.txt

All Cases avefire arinv_avefire_2002ce_21dec2007_v0_ida.txt

arinv_avefire_2002_hap_18nov2008_v0_orl.txt

othar arinv_nonroad_mexico_interior1999_21dec2006_v0_ida.txt

arinv_nonroad_mexico_border1999_21dec2006_v0_ida.txt

arinv_nonpt_mexico_interior1999_21dec2006_v0_ida.txt

arinv_nonpt_mexico_border1999_21dec2006_v0_ida.txt

arinv_canada_offroad_cap_2006_04feb2009_v0_orl.txt

arinv_canada_marine_cap_2006_03feb2009_v0_orl.txt

arinv_canada_oarea_cap_2006_02mar2009_v3_orl.txt
4

0

Case Sector SMOKE Input Files

arinv_canada_aircraft_cap_2006_04feb2009_v0_orl.txt

arinv_canada_rail_cap_2006_03feb2009_v0_orl.txt

arinv_canada_ag_cap_2006_03feb2009_v0_orl.txt

arinv_canada_afdust_xportfrac_cap_2006_03feb2009_v0_orl.txt

othon mbinv_canada_onroad_cap_2006_04feb2009_v0_orl.txt

mbinv_onroad_mexico_border1999_21dec2006_v0_ida.txt

mbinv_onroad_mexico_interior1999_21dec2006_v0_ida.txt

othpt ptinv_canada_point_2006_orl_09mar2009_v2_orl.txt

ptinv_canada_point_cb5_2006_orl_10mar2009_v0_orl.txt

ptinv_canada_point_uog_2006_orl_02mar2009_v0_orl.txt

ptinv_mexico_border99_03mar2008_v1_ida.txt

ptinv_mexico_interior99_05feb2007_v0_ida.txt

ptinv_ptnonipm_offshore_oil_cap2005v2_20nov2008_20nov2008_v0_orl.txt

2030 Reference

and Control

Ptipm Annual: ptinv_PTINV_EPA410_BC_15b_summer_2030_02FEB2011_ORL_04feb2011_v0_orl.txt

Daily: ptday_ptipm_caphap_noncem_2030cs_hdghg_ref_05b_<month>_ida.txt

Daily: ptday_ptipm_caphap_cem_2030cs_hdghg_ref_05b_<month>_ida.txt

afdust arinv_afdust_2030cs_10feb2011_v0_orl.txt

ag arinv_ag_cap2030cs_10feb2011_v0_orl.txt

alm_no_c3 arinv_lm_no_c3_hap2030cs_10feb2011_v0_orl.txt

arinv_lm_no_c3_cap2030cs_10feb2011_v0_orl.txt

Nonroad arinv_nonroad_capshaps_LDGHG_2030_CONTROL_<month>_15DEC09_15dec2009_v0_orl.txt

arinv_nonroad_calif_caphap_2030v31_<month>_17apr2008_v0_orl.txt

seca_c3 ptinv_eca_imo_CANADA_SCC_fix_vochaps_2030_08FEB2011_08feb2011_v0_orl.txt

ptinv_eca_imo_CANADA_SCC_fix_caps_2030_08FEB2011_08feb2011_v0_orl.txt

ptinv_eca_imo_fixFIPS_US_wDE_andSCC_fix_caps_2030_08FEB2011_08feb2011_v0_orl.txt

ptinv_eca_imo_fixFIPS_US_andSCC_fix_vochaps_2030_08FEB2011_08feb2011_v0_orl.txt

2030 Reference Only

(2030cs_hdghg_ref_05b)

ptnonipm ptinv_ptnonipm_xportfrac_cap2030cs_10feb2011_v0_orl.txt

ptinv_ptnonipm_hap2030cs_10feb2011_v0_orl.txt

ptinv_ptnonipm_caphap_ethanol_plant_additions_2005_30jun2010_v3_orl.txt

ptinv_ptnonipm_xportfrac_2005cap_v1_from_2005ai_ND_ADM_plant_30jun2010_v0_orl.txt

ptinv_ptnonipm_2005hap_v1_from_2005ai_ND_ADM_plant_30jun2010_v0_orl.txt

ptinv_ptnonipm_cornproducts17031_hap_cap_2008t_27aug2010_v0_orl.txt

ptinv_ptnonipm_capHG_cementISIS_2016cr_16AUG2010_16aug2010_v0_orl.txt

nonpt arinv_nonpt_2030cs_pf4_cap_nopfc_11feb2011_v0_orl.txt

arinv_nonpt_2030cs_pf4_hap_nopfc_nobafmpesticidesplus_11feb2011_v0_orl.txt

arinv_pfc_caphap2030_02apr2008_v0_orl.txt

arinv_nonpt_cap_2018PhaseII_WRAP_OilGas_24aug2009_v0_orl.txt

arinv_nonpt_2030cs_from_cap_2008_TCEQ_Oklahoma_OilGas_11feb2011_v0_orl.txt

on_noadj mbinv_on_noadj_MOVES_with_NO_NO2_HONO_2030cs_hdghg_ref_<month>_23FEB2011_23feb2011_v0_orl.txt

mbinv_onroad_calif_caphap_2030v31_<month>_14feb2011_v1_orl.txt

on_moves_runpm mbinv_on_moves_runpm_2030cs_hdghg_ref_<month>_04FEB2011_04feb2011_v0_orl.txt
41

Case Sector SMOKE Input Files

on_moves_startpm mbinv_on_moves_startpm_2030cs_hdghg_ref_<month>_04FEB2011_04feb2011_v0_orl.txt

2030 Control Only

(2030cs_hdghg_ctl_05b)

Ptnonipm ptinv_ptnonipm_xportfrac_cap2030cs_hdghg_ctl_25feb2011_v0_orl.txt

ptinv_ptnonipm_hap2030cs_hdghg_ctl_25feb2011_v0_orl.txt

ptinv_ptnonipm_caphap_ethanol_plant_additions_2005_30jun2010_v3_orl.txt

ptinv_ptnonipm_xportfrac_2005cap_v1_from_2005ai_ND_ADM_plant_30jun2010_v0_orl.txt

ptinv_ptnonipm_2005hap_v1_from_2005ai_ND_ADM_plant_30jun2010_v0_orl.txt

ptinv_ptnonipm_cornproducts17031_hap_cap_2008t_27aug2010_v0_orl.txt

ptinv_ptnonipm_capHG_cementISIS_2016cr_16AUG2010_16aug2010_v0_orl.txt

Nonpt arinv_nonpt_2030cs_hdghg_ctl_pf4_cap_nopfc_25feb2011_v0_orl.txt

arinv_nonpt_2030cs_hdghg_ctl_pf4_hap_nopfc_nobafmpesticidesplus_25feb2011_v0_orl.txt

arinv_pfc_caphap2030_02apr2008_v0_orl.txt

arinv_nonpt_cap_2030cs_hdghg_ctl_from_2018PhaseII_WRAP_OilGas_25feb2011_v0_orl.txt

arinv_nonpt_2030cs_hdghg_from_2030cs_TCEQ_Oklahoma_OilGas_25feb2011_v0_orl.txt

on_noadj mbinv_on_noadj_MOVES_with_NO_NO2_HONO_2030cs_hdghg_ctl_<month>_25FEB2011_25feb2011_v0_orl.txt

mbinv_onroad_calif_caphap_2030v31_<month>_14feb2011_v1_orl.txt

on_moves_runpm mbinv_on_moves_runpm_2030cs_hdghg_ctl_<month>_25FEB2011_25feb2011_v0_orl.txt

on_moves_startpm mbinv_on_moves_startpm_2030cs_hdghg_ctl_<month>_25FEB2011_25feb2011_v0_orl.txt
42

APPENDIX C

Ancillary Data Files Used for HDGHG 2005 Case Compared to 2005 v4.2 Platform Data Files

To match the Datasets and Versions listed in this table to actual data files, combine the Dataset name and the 

version number in the following pattern: <Dataset Name>_<Date>_<Version number>.txt, where <Date> is 

the last date of change for that version and will have a unique value for the combination of Dataset Name 

and Version number.
4

3

Table C-1. Detailed list of ancillary data differences between the HDGHG 2005 and the 2005 v4.2 platform

Description Environme

nt Variable

2005 v4.2 platform 2005 HDGHG platform

Sectors Dataset Vs

n

Dataset Vs

n

Comment and Impact Impact

?

Inventory table INVTABLE All 

sectors

invtable_hapcapintegate_cb0

5soa_nomp_nohg 3 invtable_hapcap_cb05soa 10

HDGHG used a toxics “lite” approach for 

processing the emissions and 2005 v4.2 platform 

used an approach without most toxics. Impacts 

only the species included in the air quality 

modeling. HDGHG also includes speciated NO, 

NO2 and HONO from MOVES2010a onroad 

mobile sources.

Yes

Inventory table INVTABLE

avefire, 

ptnonipm, 

ptipm

invtable_hapcapnohapuse_c

b05soa_nomp_nohg 1

invtable_hapcap_cb05_no_b

afm 3

Approach for implementing "no HAP use" 

approach for these sectors was different in 

HDGHG, but the result was the same.

No

Combination 

Profiles

GSPRO_C

OMBO

onroad, 

nonroad, 

ptnonipm, 

nonpt

gspro_combo_2005 2 gspro_combo_2005 6

Different fuel mixes for refueling, PFCs, and 

gasoline distribution in ptnoipm and nonpt in 

HDGHG –see Section 3 in HDGHG TSD.

Yes

VOC to TOG 

pollutant 

conversions

GSCNV All 

sectors gscnv_cmaq_cb05_tx_pf4 3 gscnv_cb05_soa 1

Contains all 3 2005v4.2 GSCNV datasets 

appended into a single dataset. Updated for 

HDGHG profiles.

Yes

VOC to TOG 

pollutant 

conversions

GSCNV All 

sectors

gscnv_cmaq_cb05_hspace_t

oxic 0 n/a Headspace profiles for NONHAP TOG No

VOC to TOG 

pollutant 

conversions

GSCNV All 

sectors

gspro_cmaq_cb05_hspace_B

AF 1 n/a Headspace profiles for benzene No

Speciation 

profiles -static GSPRO All sectors gspro_static_cmaq 9 gspro_static_cmaq 12 Added NO, NO2, and HONO for MOVES2010aspecies. Yes

Speciation 

profiles for TOG GSPRO All sectors

gspro_tog_cb05_soa_pf4_pr

etier2 1 gspro_tog_cb05_soa 1

Excluded ald2_primary and form_primary from 

v4 platform since not needed No

Speciation 

profiles Other

VOC HAP

GSPRO All 

sectors n/a gspro_other_hapvoc_no_benz-benz 0

For HDGHG, this dataset has the HAP VOC 

species that get passed through from inventory to 

the multipollutant inputs created for HDGHG.

Yes

Speciation 

profiles for nonGSPRO All sectors

gspro_nonhaptog_cb05_tx_p

f4_pretier2 1 gspro_nonhaptog_cb05 1

Updated HDGHG profiles and also appends the 

next three listed GSPRO datasets from v4.2 in this Yes
4

4

Description Environme

nt Variable

2005 v4.2 platform 2005 HDGHG platform

Sectors Dataset Vs

n

Dataset Vs

n

Comment and Impact Impact

?

HAP TOG table

Speciation profile 

8762/8763 for 

toxics

GSPRO All 

sectors

gspro_cmaq_cb05_hspace_t

oxic 0 n/a toxics from NONHAPTOG for headspace profiles 8762 and 8763 No

Speciation profile 

8762/8763 for 

nontoxics

GSPRO All 

sectors

gspro_cmaq_cb05_hspace_n

ontoxic 0 n/a toxics from TOG for headspace profiles 8762 and 8763 No

Speciation profile 

8762/8763 for 

TOG to BAF

GSPRO All 

sectors

gspro_cmaq_cb05_hspace_B

AF 1 n/a benzene from TOG for headspace profiles 8762 and 8763 No

Speciation xref 

for 

NONHAPVOC, 

not year-specific

GSREF All 

sectors

gsref_nonhapvoc_general_ld

ghg_cr_update 6

gsref_nonhapvoc_general_h

dghg 1

Reassigned nonroad diesel exhaust and pleasure 

craft from code 4674 to 8774. Yes

Speciation xref 

for 

NONHAPVOC, 

year-specific

GSREF All 

sectors

gsref_nonhapvoc_2005_ldgh

g_cr_update 6

gsref_nonhapvoc_2005_hdg

hg 1

Replaced 8762 (E0) headspace 

refueling/distribution with COMBO E0/E10 

profile, add pre-2007 HD trucks profile (8774)

Yes

Speciation xref 

for VOC, not 

year-specific

GSREF All 

sectors gsref_voc_general_ldghg 6 gsref_voc_general_hdghg 2

Reassigned nonroad diesel exhaust and pleasure 

craft from code 4674 to 8774. Yes

Speciation xref 

for VOC, yearspecificGSREF All 

sectors gsref_voc_2005_ldghg 5 gsref_voc_2005_hdghg 3

Replaced 8762 (E0) headspace 

refueling/distribution with COMBO E0/E10 

profile, add pre-2007 HD trucks profile (8774)

Yes

Speciation xref -

static GSREF All sectors gsref_static_cap_pf4 0 gsref_static_cap_pf4 1

Allows MOVES2010a NO, NO2, and HONO to 

pass through as-is. Yes

SCC Descriptions SCCDESC All 

sectors sccdesc_pf31 10 sccdesc_pf31 11 New SCC found for Hg processing ptnonipm No
45

Appendix D

Summary of HDGHG Rule 2030 Reference Case Non-EGU Control Programs, Closures and Projections

Lists of control, closure, projection packet datasets used to create HDGHG year 2030 Reference case inventories from the 2005 HDGHG base 

case are provided in Tables D-1 and D-2.

Table D-1. Datasets used to Create HDGHG 2030 Inventories for Non-EGU Point Sources

Name Type Dataset Version Description

CLOSURES LotusNotes, ABCG, plus Timin 

2016cr

Plant 

Closure

CLOSURES_LotusNotes_Linda_Timin_2016

cr_23AUG2010 1

Plant and unit closures identified through EPA 

review.

CLOSURES TR1 comments and consent decrees 

2014cs

Plant 

Closure CLOSURES_TR1_2014cs_01FEB2011 0

Plant and unit closures through 2014 identified as 

a result of Transport Rule comments.

CLOSURES cement ISIS 2013 policy

Plant 

Closure

CLOSURES_cementISIS_2016cr_17AUG201

0 1

Cement plant and unit closures identified via the 

ISIS 2013 policy case.

closures: 2005 to 2012ck

Plant 

Closure

CLOSURES_2005ck_to_2012ck_CoST_form

at 0

Plant and unit closures identified 2008 or before.

CONTROL ADDITIONAL OECA 2005cr to 

2016cr Control

CONTROLS_additional_NEIpf4_OECA_200

5cr_2016cr_29JUL2010 1

Controls that implement OECA consent decrees.

CONTROL REPLACE DOJ 2005cr to 2016cr Control

CONTROLS_replacement_NEIpf4_DOJ_200

5cr_2016cr_02AUG2010.txt 0

Controls resulting from the 2002v3 DOJ Texas

settlement.

CONTROL REPLACE HWI 2005cr to 2016cr Control

CONTROLS_replacement_NEIpf4_HWI_200

5cr_2016cr_02AUG2010.txt 1

Hazardous Waste Incinerator controls for CAPs 

and Haps carried over from 2002v31.

CONTROL REPLACE IndustrialBoiler 

nonMACT 2005cr to 2016cr Control

CONTROLS_replacement_IndBoilers_nonM

ACT_by2008_20AUG2010 0

Industrial boiler controls not related to application 

of the MACT but derived from the Boiler MACT 

ICR database dated 4/30/10.

CONTROL REPLACE LMWC 2005cr to 2016cr Control

CONTROLS_replacement_NEIpf4_LMWC_

2005cr_2016cr_02AUG2010.txt 0

Controls for large municipal combustors carried 

over from 2002v31.

CONTROL REPLACE MACT 2005cr to 2016cr Control

CONTROLS_replacement_NEIpf4_MACT_2

005cr_2016cr_02AUG2010.txt 0

MACT controls carried over from 2002v3 and 

updated as appropriate.

CONTROL REPLACE NY SIP 2005cr to 2016cr Control

CONTROLS_replacement_NYSIP_O3_SCC_

2016cr_26AUG2010 0

Controls that reflect enforceable controls for NOx 

and VOC from the New York ozone SIP.

CONTROL REPLACE Refineries 2005cr to 

2016cr Control

CONTROLS_replacement_NEIpf4_refineries

_2005cr_2016cr_02AUG2010.txt 0

Controls for refineries specified by EPA expert 

refinery staff.

CONTROL RICE 2016cr_05b Control

CONTROLS_replacement_RICE_2016cr_21

SEP2010 1

Controls for 2014 and 2016 that represent three 

separate RICE NESHAPs

CONTROL RICE SO2 2014cs_05b Control

CONTROLS_replacement_RICE_SO2_2014c

s_05JAN2011 1

SO2 reductions from the Ultra-low Sulfur Diesel 

requirement for CI engines

CONTROL SULF rules: ME, NY, NJ 2018 and 

beyond Control

CONTROLS_SULF_rules_2018_and_beyond

_03FEB2011 1

SO2 reductions due to state sulfur content rules for 

fuel oil.
46

CONTROL St Gobain and LaFarge 2017 Control

CONTROLS_rep_Lafarge_StGobain_2017cs

_25JAN2011.txt 0

Controls for NOx, SO2, PM., and HCl resulting 

from Saint Gobain and Lafarge consent decrees

CONTROL TR1 Final CONTROL packet: 2021 Control CONTROLS_TR1_2021_09FEB2011 1

Controls for TCEQ oil and gas and non-ISIS 

related cement controls.

CONTROL TR1 Final consent decrees 2019 Control

CONTROLS_additional_TR1final_consent_d

ecrees_2005cs_to_2019cs 1

Controls related to consent decrees identified 

during the Transport Rule comment period. 

CONTROL cement ISIS 2013 policy Control

CONTROLS_replacement_cementISIS_2016

cr_17AUG2010 0

Controls for cement plants based on 2013 ISIS 

policy case

PROJECTION 2005 to 2030 ag emissions

Projecti

on PROJECTION_2005cs_2030_ag_09FEB2011 0

Projection factors for agriculture based on animal 

population stats.

PROJECTION LMWC 2005cr to 2016cr

Projecti

on

PROJECTION_2005cr_2016cr_LMWC_29J

UL2010 0

Projection factors for Solid and Liquid Municipal 

Waste Combustors.

PROJECTION TR1 comments 2005cs to 20XXcs 

-ptnonipm

Projecti

on

PROJECTION_2005cs_20XX_TR1_ptnonip

m_01FEB2011 0

Projection factors derived from Transport Rule 

comments.

PROJECTION aircraft 2005cs to 2030 JAN2010 

FAATAF

Projecti

on

PROJECTION_2005cs_2030_aircraft_JAN20

10_based_FAATAF_10FEB2011 0

Projection factors for aircraft derived from the 

FAA Terminal Area Forecast System.

PROJECTION cement ISIS 2013 policy

Projecti

on

PROJECTION_cementISIS_2016cr_17AUG2

010 0

Projection factors that implement the 2013 ISIS 

policy case for cement.

PROJECTION refueling 2005cs to 

2030cs_hdghg_ref

Projecti

on

PROJECTION_2005cs_2030cs_hdghg_ref_o

nroad_refueling_04FEB2011 0 Projection factors for gasoline stage 2 refueling.

Table D-2. Datasets used to Create HDGHG 2030 Inventories for Nonpoint Sources

Control Program Name Type Dataset Version Description

CONTROL REPLACE NY 

SIP 2005cr to 2016cr Control

CONTROLS_replacement_NYSIP_O3_SC

C_2016cr_26AUG2010 0

Controls that reflect enforceable controls for NOx and VOC from the 

New York ozone SIP.

CONTROL RICE 

2016cr_05b Control

CONTROLS_replacement_RICE_2016cr_

21SEP2010 1

Controls for 2014 and 2016 that represent three separate RICE 

NESHAPs

CONTROL RICE SO2 

2014cs_05b Control

CONTROLS_replacement_RICE_SO2_20

14cs_05JAN2011 0

SO2 reductions from the Ultra-low Sulfur Diesel requirement for CI 

engines

CONTROL SULF rules: 

ME, NY, NJ 2018 and 

beyond Control

CONTROLS_SULF_rules_2018_and_beyo

nd_03FEB2011 0

SO2 reductions due to state sulfur content rules for fuel oil.

CONTROL TR1 Final 

CONTROL packet: 2021 Control CONTROLS_TR1_2021_09FEB2011 0 Controls for TCEQ oil and gas and non-ISIS related cement controls.

PROJECTION 2005 to 2030 

ag sector Projection

PROJECTION_2005cs_2030_ag_09FEB20

11 0 Projection factors for agriculture based on animal population stats.

PROJECTION RWC and 

landfills 2005 to 2030 Projection

PROJECTION_2005cs_2030cs_RWC_land

fills_08FEB2011 0 Projection factors for residential wood combustion and landfills.

PROJECTION refueling 

2005cs to 2030cs_hdghg_ref Projection

PROJECTION_2005cs_2030cs_hdghg_ref

_onroad_refueling_04FEB2011 0 Projection factors for gasoline stage 2 refueling.