HDR1012000130080327961500Wool and Mohair                                        
Released March 27, 1996, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service        
(NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture.  For     
information on "Wool and Mohair" call Linda Simpson at (202) 720-3578, office   
hours 8:00 a.m. to 4:30 p.m. ET.  For assistance with general agricultural      
statistics, information about NASS, its products or services, contact the NASS  
Information Hotline at 1-800-727-9540 or E-mail: NASS@NASS.USDA.GOV.            
                                                                                
                                                                                
                     1995 Wool Production Down 8 Percent                        
                                                                                
Shorn wool production in the United States during 1995 was 63.3 million         
pounds, down 8 percent from 1994. Sheep and lambs shorn totaled 8.11 million    
head, a decrease of 9 percent from 1994.  The average price paid for wool sold  
in 1995 was $1.04 per pound for a total value of $64.1 million, up 22 percent   
from $52.4 million in 1994.                                                     
                                                                                
Mohair production in the five major producing states (Arizona, Michigan, New    
Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas) during 1995 was 12.1 million pounds, down          
4 percent from 1994.  Goats and kids clipped, at 1.62 million head, was down    
8 percent from 1994.  Average weight per clip was 7.4 pounds compared with      
7.1 pounds a year earlier. Value of mohair production was $22.2 million, down   
32 percent from 1994.                                                           
                                                                                
           Wool:  Production, Price, and Value, United States, 1993-95          
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              :   Sheep    :   Weight   :   Shorn    :   Price    :             
     Year     :   Shorn    :    per     :    Wool    :    per     :   Value 3/  
              :     1/     :   Fleece   : Production :  Pound 2/  :             
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              :   1,000        Pounds       1,000       Dollars        1,000    
              :    Head                     Pounds                    Dollars   
              :                                                                 
1993          :    9,976        7.77        77,535         .51         39,077   
1994          :   *8,877        7.73       *68,577         .78        *52,377   
1995          :    8,108        7.81        63,303        1.04         64,124   
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
*  Revised.                                                                     
1/  Includes shearing at commercial feeding yards.                              
2/  Average local market price for wool sold; does not include incentive        
    payment.                                                                    
3/  Production multiplied by marketing year average price for individual States;
    US value is summation of State values.                                      
                                                                                
Lv Gn 2 (3-96)                                                                  
                                                                                
                                                                                
          Mohair:  Production, Price, and Value, 5-State Total, 1993-95         
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              :            :  Average   :            :   Price    :             
     Year     :   Goats    :  Clip per  : Production :    per     :  Value 2/   
              :  Clipped   :    Goat    :            :  Pound 1/  :             
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              :   1,000        Pounds       1,000       Dollars        1,000    
              :    Head                     Pounds                    Dollars   
              :                                                                 
1993          :   2,145         6.9         14,847         .82        12,066    
1994          :   1,774         7.1         12,608        2.56        32,247    
1995          :   1,624         7.4         12,059        1.84        22,160    
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                                
                                                                                
            Mohair:  Production, Price, and Value by Selected States            
                           and 5-State Total, 1994-95                           
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
        :             :   Average   :             :             :               
        :    Goats    :    Clip     :             :    Price    :               
        :   Clipped   :     per     : Production  :     per     :   Value 2/    
  State :             :    Goat     :             :  Pound 1/   :               
        :-----------------------------------------------------------------------
        : 1994 : 1995 : 1994 : 1995 : 1994 : 1995 : 1994 : 1995 : 1994  : 1995  
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
        :    1,000        Pounds        1,000         Dollars         1,000     
        :--- Head ---                --- Pounds --               --- Dollars -- 
        :                                                                       
AZ      :   49     40    4.1    4.0     200    160   .74   1.52     148     243 
MI      :    7      6   10.0   10.0      70     60  2.67   1.70     187     102 
NM      :   85     85    4.5    4.0     383    340  1.61   1.66     617     564 
OK      :   33     23    8.3    7.8     275    180  2.52   1.73     693     311 
TX      :1,600  1,470    7.3    7.7  11,680 11,319  2.62   1.85  30,602  20,940 
        :                                                                       
5 Sts   :1,774  1,624    7.1    7.4  12,608 12,059  2.56   1.84  32,247  22,160 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/  Average local market price for mohair sold; does not include incentive      
    payment.                                                                    
2/  Production multiplied by marketing year average price for individual States;
    5-State value is summation of State values.                                 
                                                                                
                                                                                
           Wool:  Number of Sheep and Lambs Shorn, Weight per Fleece,           
               and Production by State and United States, 1994-95               
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              :     Sheep Shorn     :  Weight per Fleece  :     Production      
     State    :-----------------------------------------------------------------
              :   1994   :   1995   :   1994   :   1995   :   1994   :   1995   
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              : --- 1,000 Head ---      --- Pounds ---      -- 1,000 Pounds --  
              :                                                                 
AL            :      8.0       7.0       5.8       6.0           46         42  
AK            :      1.2        .9       6.7       5.6            8          5  
AZ            :    160.0     140.0       6.9       6.8        1,100        950  
CA            :    695.0     690.0       7.7       7.6        5,318      5,250  
CO            :    635.0     540.0       7.3       7.3        4,607      3,960  
CT            :      4.5       4.5       7.3       7.6           33         34  
ID            :    234.0     233.0       9.6       9.3        2,254      2,164  
IL            :     96.0      86.0       6.7       6.9          639        590  
IN            :     75.8      70.0       7.2       6.8          548        475  
IA            :    276.0     345.0       5.9       6.0        1,637      2,070  
KS            :    130.0     144.0       7.0       7.0          908      1,010  
KY            :     18.5      18.0       7.0       6.8          130        123  
LA            :     10.8      10.0       6.0       5.5           65         55  
ME            :     *9.5       7.5       7.6       7.9          *72         59  
MD            :     26.0      21.0       6.9       8.7          180        182  
MA            :      8.0       6.0      *7.0       7.3          *56         44  
MI            :     79.0      85.0       7.6       7.7          599        658  
MN            :    175.0     170.0       6.7       6.8        1,175      1,150  
MO            :    105.0      90.0       6.5       6.3          686        570  
MT            :    533.0     468.0       9.6       9.4        5,092      4,413  
NE            :     95.0      90.0       7.1       7.6          673        680  
NV            :     74.0      74.0       9.8       9.2          722        680  
NH            :      4.5       5.0       7.3       7.4           33         37  
NJ            :     11.4      10.0       7.5       9.3           85         93  
NM            :    371.0     340.0       8.9       8.8        3,297      3,000  
NY            :     63.0      54.0       7.1       7.0          448        380  
NC            :     12.8      10.5       6.7       6.9           86         72  
ND            :   *130.0     109.0      *9.2       9.1       *1,200        990  
OH            :    170.0     136.0       7.1       7.0        1,200        950  
OK            :     63.0      52.0       6.2       6.3          390        330  
OR            :    342.0     360.0       6.6       6.7        2,266      2,412  
PA            :     81.0      81.0       6.9       6.9          562        560  
SD            :    520.0     460.0       8.6       8.6        4,465      3,967  
TN            :      9.6      10.0       6.7       7.5           64         75  
TX            :  2,120.0   1,820.0       7.0       7.4       14,840     13,468  
UT            :    384.0     360.0      10.0       9.7        3,843      3,500  
VT            :     16.0      12.0       6.9       7.3          110         88  
VA            :     69.1      58.0       5.9       6.2          409        358  
WA            :     47.0      44.0       8.8       8.5          415        375  
WV            :     60.0      54.0       6.0       6.3          360        340  
WI            :     64.0      67.0       7.6       7.8          488        525  
WY            :    870.0     730.0       8.4       8.8        7,343      6,411  
              :                                                                 
Oth Sts 1/    :     19.2      35.1       6.5       5.9          125        208  
              :                                                                 
US            : *8,876.9   8,107.5       7.73      7.81     *68,577     63,303  
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
*   Revised.                                                                    
1/  AR, DE, FL, GA, HI, MS, RI, and SC.                                         
                                                                                
                                                                                
           Wool:  Price and Value by State and United States, 1994-95           
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                :      Price per Pound 1/       :           Value 2/            
      State     :---------------------------------------------------------------
                :     1994      :     1995      :     1994      :     1995      
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                :     ------ Dollars -----           ---- 1,000 Dollars ---     
                :                                                               
AL              :      .83            1.15                38             48     
AK              :     1.20            1.25                10              6     
AZ              :      .47             .62               517            589     
CA              :      .65            1.02             3,457          5,355     
CO              :      .72            1.09             3,317          4,316     
CT              :      .62             .78                20             27     
ID              :      .68             .88             1,533          1,904     
IL              :      .38             .55               243            325     
IN              :      .34             .55               186            261     
IA              :      .39             .60               638          1,242     
KS              :      .63             .83               572            838     
KY              :      .53             .70                69             86     
LA              :      .53             .68                34             37     
ME              :      .80             .76               *58             45     
MD              :      .54             .81                97            147     
MA              :      .79             .80               *44             35     
MI              :      .52             .68               311            447     
MN              :      .42             .64               494            736     
MO              :      .42             .64               288            365     
MT              :      .86            1.23             4,379          5,428     
NE              :      .50             .65               337            442     
NV              :      .73            1.08               527            734     
NH              :      .81             .98                27             36     
NJ              :      .66             .76                56             71     
NM              :      .83            1.17             2,737          3,510     
NY              :      .65             .84               291            319     
NC              :      .61             .85                52             61     
ND              :      .61             .94              *732            931     
OH              :      .48             .65               576            618     
OK              :      .64             .79               250            261     
OR              :      .55             .80             1,246          1,930     
PA              :      .58             .78               326            437     
SD              :      .75            1.08             3,349          4,284     
TN              :      .65             .82                42             62     
TX              :     1.05            1.15            15,582         15,488     
UT              :      .70            1.01             2,690          3,535     
VT              :      .81             .84                89             74     
VA              :      .63             .88               258            315     
WA              :      .60             .84               249            315     
WV              :      .56             .88               202            299     
WI              :      .44             .62               215            326     
WY              :      .84            1.20             6,168          7,693     
                :                                                               
Oth Sts 3/      :      .57             .70                71            146     
                :                                                               
US              :      .78            1.04           *52,377         64,124     
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
*  Revised.                                                                     
1/  Average local market price for wool sold; does not include incentive        
    payment.                                                                    
2/  Production multiplied by marketing year average price for individual States,
    US value is summation of State values.                                      
3/  AR, DE, FL, GA, MS, RI, and SC.                                             
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
       Reliability of Wool and Mohair Production Estimates                      
                                                                                
Survey Procedures: A random sample of U. S. producers was surveyed to provide   
                   data for the number of sheep shorn and production            
estimates. Survey procedures ensured that all sheep and goat producers,         
regardless of size, had a chance to be included in the survey.  Large           
producers were sampled more heavily than small operations.  Data were           
collected from about 18,000 operators during the first half of January by       
mail, telephone, and face-to-face personal interviews.                          
                                                                                
                                                                                
Estimation Procedures:  These sheep shorn, wool and mohair production           
                        estimates were prepared by the Agricultural Statistics  
Board after reviewing recommendations and analysis submitted by each State      
office.  National and State survey data were reviewed for reasonableness with   
each other and with estimates from past years.  Farm Service Agency's (FSA)     
record of pounds of wool and mohair from producers filing for incentive         
payments was used as check data.                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
Revision Policy:  Revisions to previous estimates are made to improve the       
                  current estimate. Previous year estimates are subject to      
revision when current estimates are made.  Inventory estimates will also be     
reviewed after data from the Department of Commerce's five-year Census of       
Agriculture are available.  No revisions will be made after that date.          
                                                                                
                                                                                
Reliability:  Since all operations raising sheep and goats are not included in  
              the sample for the inventory and production estimates, survey     
data are subject to sampling variability.  Survey results for inventory and     
production estimates are also subject to non-sampling errors, such as           
omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing   
the data.  The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly.  They are   
minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and     
through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and               
reasonableness.                                                                 
                                                                                
                                                                                
To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report,  
the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the table below.    
The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past             
performance and is computed using the differences between first and latest      
estimates.  The "Root Mean Square Error" for sheep shorn estimates over the     
past 10 years is 0.5 percent.  This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the  
final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 7.7 million   
head by more than 0.5 percent, or about 38,800 head. Chances are 9 out of 10    
that the difference will not exceed 1.0 percent, or about 77,600 head (the 90   
percent confidence level).                                                      
                                                                                
Also shown in the table is a 10-year record showing the range between the       
first estimate and the latest estimate. Using estimates for Sheep and Lambs     
Shorn as an example, changes between the first inventory estimate and the       
latest estimate during the past 10 years have averaged 42,200 head, ranging     
from 4,400 to 104,800 head.  The inventory estimate of Sheep and Lambs Shorn    
has been below the latest estimate 6 times and above 4 times in the last 10     
years.                                                                          
                                                                                
                                                                                
        Reliability of U.S. Sheep Shorn and Wool Production Estimates 1/        
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      :       :             :      Difference Between      :                    
      : Root  :             :       First and Latest       :     Number of      
      : Mean  :     90%     :          Estimates           :       Years        
 Item :Square : Confidence  :---------------------------------------------------
      : Error :    Level    :         :          :         :  First  :  First   
      :       :             : Average : Smallest : Largest :  Above  :  Below   
      :       :             :         :          :         : Latest  :  Latest  
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      :  ----- Percent ----   ------- 1,000 Head ------            Number       
      :                                                                         
Sheep :                                                                         
 Shorn:                                                                         
      : 0.5     1.0    77.6    42.2        4.4      104.8       4          6    
      :                                                                         
      :                                1,000 Pounds                             
      :                                                                         
Wool  :                                                                         
 Prod : 0.6     1.2   759.6   347.2       16.0    1,307.0       4          6    
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/  Based on data from 1985 through 1995.                                       
                                                                                
                                                                                
The next "Wool and Mohair" report will be released in March 1997.               
                                                                                
                                                                                
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an equal employment opportunity employer.                                       
                                                                                
                                                                                
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