PLANNING FOR FUTURE CONDITIONS

Is Your Community Ready?

The 2010s were a landmark decade for natural disasters. For example, relentless rains 

overtopped levees and flooded farms and towns along the Mississippi. The Camp Fire 

in California and thousands of other blazes across the west caused record damage to 

buildings and infrastructure. And millions lost power and were evacuated during Hurricanes 

Harvey, Irma, and Maria. The disaster activity we have seen will continue. We can prepare 

for changing disaster risk by planning for future conditions, but we have to start now. 

The Time to Plan for Future Conditions is Now

One way to keep families, businesses, and neighborhoods safe from natural disasters 

is long-term planning. Communities that invest in long-term planning and forward-looking 

projects will see fewer impacts and are more likely to recover quickly after severe events. 

Preparing for the future today supports growth and health for years to come.

As weather and development patterns change, local plans and projects must 

address the changing risks of future disasters. This affects hazard mitigation plans, 

comprehensive plans, and more. The cycle of risk involves damage, rebuilding, and 

repeated loss. Long-term planning helps break this cycle.
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DISASTER RISK IS CHANGING ALMOST EVERYWHERE

Changing weather patterns have made many types of disasters more frequent and extreme. 

While every community will see different impacts, every place in the United States is affected. 

DROUGHT: As temperatures climb, higher evaporation rates make droughts worse. 

Severe droughts can threaten drinking water supplies and disrupt agriculture.

HEAVY RAIN & FLOODING: In many regions, more frequent and intense rains are leading 

to more severe flooding. Intense rain can trigger flash flooding and make rivers overflow. 

Saturated soils also create the perfect conditions for landslides and mudflows.

COASTAL FLOODING: Rising sea levels contribute to more frequent and intense coastal floods 

and storm surge. Even on sunny days, high-tide floods are becoming more frequent and reaching 

farther inland. As tides inch higher, hundreds of U.S. coastal communities will face chronic, 

disruptive flooding that will directly affect homes, lives, and properties.

WILDFIRES: Warm temperatures are more common, and intense droughts create the conditions 

for more wildfires. The 2019 wildfire season was the most extreme in California’s history.

EXTREME HEAT & COLD: The annual number of very hot and cold days is growing. Extreme 

heat is now affecting areas of the country that are unfamiliar with this hazard. Of all weatherrelated hazards, extreme heat often causes the highest number of deaths each year.

SEVERE WEATHER: Warmer, wetter conditions provide more energy for thunderstorms and 

tornados. In the future, more states may be affected. Some research shows that the impact of 

tornadoes is slowly creeping east.

TROPICAL WEATHER: Warm ocean waters fuel the energy of tropical weather. The Gulf Coast, 

Southeast and Mid-Atlantic are seeing more destructive tropical storms and hurricanes.

For more information on 

how future conditions could 

affect disaster risk in your 

community, see the Explore 

Resources section.

DEFINING FUTURE 

CONDITIONS

“Future conditions” means 

how things will be in the future. 

Changes in weather patterns, 

average temperature, and sea 

levels can bring more extreme 

storms, droughts, wildfires, 

and other natural disasters 

to your community. In addition, 

how your community uses and 

develops the land can put 

more people, businesses, and 

homes in harm’s way. These 

changes can bring greater risk 

to the people who live and 

work in your community.
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BUILD RESILIENCE WITH YOUR 

HAZARD MITIGATION PLAN

Hazard mitigation planning identifies long-term policies 

and actions to reduce damage and losses. Use your plan’s 

risk assessment and mitigation strategy to build resilience. 

Address the impacts of future conditions through your 

planning process.

Steps for Addressing Future Conditions 

in Your Risk Assessment • Describe hazards: How could future conditions affect each natural 

hazard profiled in your plan? Describe the location, intensity, and 

duration of those effects. The detail will depend on the data and 

resources available. If you have local information, you can make more 

precise projections. If not, make qualitative projections based on 

national or regional information. 

• Identify community resources: Use the projected hazards to see 

which resources may be at risk in the future. Do this for each natural 

hazard. Resources can include neighborhoods, business corridors, 

historic districts, and natural systems.

• Analyze risks: Think about resources that may be at risk. Describe 

the possible impacts of each future hazard. How serious could your 

community’s loss be, both right after the disaster and in the longer term? 

Also consider impacts on all sectors, including housing, infrastructure, 

emergency management, land use and development, health and social 

services, and natural and cultural resources.

• Summarize vulnerability: Use the risk analysis to list your main 

vulnerabilities. Share the list with elected officials and decisionmakers. Create a mitigation strategy with this information.
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Tips for Addressing Future Conditions in your Mitigation Strategy

The four basic types of mitigation actions are described below. Understanding future disaster risk can strengthen each type of action.

SEE WHAT OTHERS ARE DOING

Baltimore chose to add future risks to its 2013 and 2018 

Hazard Mitigation Plans. The 2018 plan relates future 

conditions to heat waves, sea levels, precipitation, and flooding.

2018 Disaster Preparedness and Planning Project

Structure & Infrastructure Projects

These actions protect structures and infrastructure 

by changing them or removing them from danger. Use 

the projected hazards for your community to prioritize 

projects that keep structures safe as risks evolve.

Local Plans and Regulations

These actions include policies or codes that influence 

the way land is developed and structures are built. 

With knowledge of future risks, you can change your 

plans, policies, and building and development codes. 

That will reduce the community’s vulnerability.

Outreach & Education Programs

These actions inform and educate the community. They 

increase people’s awareness of hazards and of ways 

to mitigate risk. By including future conditions, you 

can help your community invest in choices that protect 

lives and property for a longer time.

Natural Systems Protection

These actions minimize damage and losses. They can 

also save or restore the benefits of natural systems. 

Identify the people and places that may be vulnerable 

to future disasters. Use those to set priorities. 

Conserve natural systems that will be at risk or that 

protect areas of future risk.
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BUILD RESILIENCE WITH YOUR COMPREHENSIVE PLAN

A community’s comprehensive plan expresses its vision for the future. It is a blueprint for long-term building and growth. 

In many places, the plan is the foundation for zoning, subdivision, and land development regulations. By addressing future 

conditions in your comprehensive plan and related regulations, you can:

• Direct new development away from future hazard areas, 

• Protect existing development from changing disaster risks, and

• Strengthen families, businesses, and neighborhoods to withstand future events.

• Land Use: Use projected changes to hazard areas to inform a future 

land use map. This map shows where the community would like homes, 

businesses, farms, open spaces, and other land uses to be in the future 

(often in 20-40 years). Knowing how high-hazard areas may change in the 

future can help target those areas for preservation or lower development 

densities and can help inform evacuation routes. Smart growth is one 

strategy to limit development in a high-hazard area. 

• Transportation: Use projected changes to hazard areas to inform 

major transportation improvements and prevent future safety and 

capacity issues. Goals and strategies for the transportation element 

can be used to direct major highway and transit service away from 

high-hazard areas. They can also enhance the safety and capacity of 

existing infrastructure.

• Natural Resources: Preserving natural resources can reduce the risks of 

many different hazards. Conserving wetlands, beaches, and dunes can 

reduce storm surge impacts. Preserving woodlands from development 

can reduce the impacts of wildfires. Protecting agricultural soil health 

allows soil to soak up more water, which can help improve water quality 

and reduce the impacts of flood events. Use projected changes to 

the location, intensity, and duration of natural hazards to prioritize 

conservation efforts. In some cases, you may need to actively manage 

natural resources to sustain their functions under future conditions.

• Economic Development: Under future conditions, your community’s 

economy may become more vulnerable to natural disasters. In some 

coastal communities, for example, tourism in waterfront areas is 

critical. A disaster that disrupts this activity could slow the community’s 

recovery. Knowing this, develop goals and strategies that protect your 

key economic drivers or diversify economic activity.

Tips for Addressing Future Conditions in Your Comprehensive Plan

Most comprehensive plans identify goals and strategies for different planning elements. To build your community’s resilience, you could create 

a new element dedicated to future disaster risks. Another option is to address future conditions within existing elements, such as the following:
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SEE WHAT OTHERS ARE DOING: 

The University of North Carolina, Asheville, prepared a 

Climate Resilience Report. It assessed flood, landslide, 

drought, wildfire, and other hazards. The city used this 

report to shape its 2018 comprehensive plan, Living 

Asheville. The plan advised strategies for climate-related 

weaknesses in each area of the city.

Other Plans and Planning Tools

You can also integrate your assessment of future disaster risks into other plans. 

Consider capital improvement plans, area plans, and operational plans, such 

as emergency operations. Ideally, this integration will drive changes in zoning 

ordinances, subdivision and land development codes, building codes, and public 

investments, which will help keep your community safe for years to come.

Planning goals and strategies are usually tied to a timeframe, such as 20 years, 

50 years, or 100 years. When planning for future conditions, consider the 

appropriate timeframe for each goal and strategy. The appropriate timeframe 

could depend on the types of hazards you are planning for, the lifespan of any 

proposed investments, or the terms of any financing options. 

There is no fixed formula or single right way to incorporate future conditions into your community’s plans. You can plan for future conditions across 

many types of community planning. What’s most important is to start where you have an opportunity, and to keep thinking about what the long-term 

implications of plans and projects may be. Take actions in as many ways as possible to help benefit your community long term.
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EXPLORE RESOURCES

Long-term planning for future conditions is an emerging practice. Each year, there are more resources to help you 

understand and prepare for the future. 

Learn About Your Changing Disaster Risk

Climate Central Extreme Weather Toolkits – These toolkits connect the 

extreme weather in your region to future conditions. The kits have profiles 

of eight types of extreme weather. They make scientific research on future 

conditions more accessible. 

Climate Impact Lab – This website features a Climate Impact Map. Users 

can see future conditions in the next 20 years, by mid-century, and at the 

end of the century.

Data.Gov – This website’s climate section has information on changing 

weather and climate. It describes how future conditions might affect 

assets and vulnerability.

NOAA Digital Coast Portal – This website is for the coastal management 

community. It contains visualization and predictive tools, and tools that 

make data easier to find and use. Top tools include the Sea Level Rise 

Viewer and the Flood Exposure Mapper.

U.S. Climate Resilience Toolkit – This toolkit guides communities to find 

and document hazards related to climate. It helps them develop workable 

solutions to reduce risks.

USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service and Climate Change – 

These resources provide detailed insight on how agriculture and soil 

impact climate change through interactive activities and features.

USGS Coastal Change Hazards Portal – This website features an 

interactive map using coastal change data for our nation. It has 

information on three coastal change hazards: extreme storms, 

shoreline change, and sea level rise. 

Plan for Future Disaster Risk

Adaptation Clearinghouse – This database lets users explore ways to 

adapt to future conditions. Planning, education, laws, and regulations 

are discussed. It also describes funding and case studies. The Emergency 

Preparedness page has resources for hazard mitigation planning.

Climate Adaptation Knowledge Exchange – This website features 

climate adaptation studies and resources. It shares lessons, ideas, 

and opportunities to adapt. Resources are listed by topic, region, and 

adaptation phase.

FEMA’s Hazard Mitigation Planning Program – This page introduces 

hazard mitigation planning and its benefits and provides resources for 

hazard mitigation planning in your community. 

Local Mitigation Planning Handbook, Safe Growth Audit – One appendix 

in this FEMA resource is a Safe Growth Audit. This four-page worksheet 

helps identify gaps in a community’s growth guidance tools. With this 

knowledge, users can reduce risks to future development.

Sustaining Places Initiative – This resource is from the American Planning 

Association. Its comprehensive plan standards are designed to create 

livable, healthy communities in harmony with nature. The standards also 

help communities address future conditions in their comprehensive plans.