Pot 1-2  (5-99)
 
 
 
Potato
Stocks
 
National
Agricultural
Statistics
Service
 
 
 
 
USDA
Washington, D.C.
 
 
 
Released May 14, 1999, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS),
Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture.  For information
on "Potato Stocks" call Arvin Budge at (202) 720-4285, office hours 7:30 a.m. to
4:00 p.m. ET.
 
 
                May Potato Stocks Down 6 Percent
 
The 15 major potato States held 87.6 million cwt of potatoes on May 1, 1999,
down 6 percent from last year and 15 percent below May 1997.  Storage accounted
for 21 percent of 1998 fall production, 1 percent less than a year ago.
Disappearance, at 337 million cwt, is up 5 percent from last year but 1 percent
below the record high from the 1996 crop.  Processor usage in the eight major
States, totaled 168 million cwt, up 8 percent from last year.
 
 
 
 
         Fall Potatoes:  Production and Stocks, 15 Major States, 1989-98
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
   Crop  :          :         :         :         :         :         :
   Year  :Production:  Dec 1  :  Jan 1  :  Feb 1  :  Mar 1  :  Apr 1  :  May 1
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
         :                              1,000 Cwt
         :
1989     : 316,097    202,050   173,550   144,290   116,600    84,320    50,675
1990     : 344,200    225,500   194,460   162,850   134,470   101,150    63,040
1991     : 363,541    242,070   211,005   178,515   145,820   108,865    69,110
1992     : 368,516    246,820   215,990   184,560   152,795   115,785    75,040
1993     : 376,954    249,410   217,300   185,490   153,435   115,170    72,860
1994     : 410,839    273,290   238,560   202,470   169,570   129,825    87,600
1995     : 394,785    256,710   223,550   189,360   156,020   115,855    75,870
1996     : 443,704    295,100   261,320   226,080   189,210   147,585   103,210
1997     : 413,513    278,830   246,550   212,562   175,870   134,190    92,840
1998     : 424,897    282,300   246,220   211,100   174,100   130,890    87,640
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 
 
 
 
          Potatoes:  Quantity Used for Processing, 8 States, 1995-98 1/
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
     State and     :        :        :        :       :       :       :
     Crop Year     : Dec 1  : Jan 1  : Feb 1  : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 : Season
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                   :                         1,000 Cwt
                   :
ID & OR-Malheur Co :
  1995             : 27,310   35,040   43,260   51,530  59,060  66,690   89,250
  1996             : 31,060   38,210   45,420   54,640  62,570  70,720   96,970
  1997             : 26,880   33,950   41,050   49,470  57,620  65,750   91,450
  1998             : 27,510   34,700   42,670   51,210  60,040  68,550
                   :
ME 2/              :
  1995             :  1,455    1,850    2,430    2,850   3,435   3,965    5,725
  1996             :  1,790    2,115    2,820    3,280   3,820   4,420    6,495
  1997             :  1,250    1,720    2,265    2,735   3,355   3,900    5,870
  1998             :  1,180    1,710    2,260    2,983   3,595   4,190
                   :
WA & OR - Other    :
  1995             : 30,000   35,170   39,460   45,280  51,730  57,360   70,250
  1996             : 31,670   36,660   41,700   48,740  55,570  62,320   80,970
  1997             : 28,580   33,990   38,690   46,400  53,720  59,780   76,930
  1998             : 33,460   38,895   45,650   53,290  60,930  67,180
                   :
Oth Sts 3/         :
  1995             : 12,650   15,630   18,815   21,985  25,510  28,610   33,580
  1996             : 13,720   17,000   20,645   24,085  27,650  30,830   43,100
  1997             : 11,645   13,960   17,115   19,905  23,515  26,365   37,842
  1998             : 11,020   13,785   17,510   21,185  24,485  28,370
                   :
Total              :
  1995             : 71,415   87,690  103,965  121,645 139,735 156,625  198,805
  1996             : 78,240   93,985  110,585  130,745 149,610 168,290  227,535
  1997             : 68,355   83,620   99,120  118,510 138,210 155,795  212,092
  1998             : 73,170   89,090  108,090  128,668 149,050 168,290
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/  Total quantity received and used for processing regardless of the State in
    which the potatoes were produced.  Amount excludes quantities used for
    potato chips in ME, MI, MN, ND, and WI.
2/  Includes Maine grown potatoes only.
3/  MI, MN, ND, and WI.
 
 
 
 
             Fall Potatoes:  Production and Stocks on May 1, 1998-99
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
               :          Crop of 1997          :         Crop of 1998
               :----------------------------------------------------------------
     State     :          :  Stocks  :    %     :          :  Stocks  :    %
               :   Prod   :  May 1,  :    of    :   Prod   :  May 1,  :   of
               :          :   1998   :   Prod   :          : 1999  1/ :  Prod
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
               : ---- 1,000 Cwt ---    Percent    ---- 1,000 Cwt ---    Percent
               :
CA             :   4,200      1,200       29        3,708        900      24
CO             :  24,993      7,700       31       25,360      6,400      25
ID             : 140,314     41,500       30      139,650     39,000      28
ME             :  19,080      4,500       24       18,060      3,800      21
MI             :  14,250      1,000        7       14,725        800       5
MN             :  20,440      4,500       22       21,170      4,300      20
MT             :   3,328        150        5        3,180        270       8
NE 2/          :   7,761        300                 8,175        400
NY             :   7,150        100        1        7,290        140       2
ND             :  22,000      4,700       21       28,670      6,500      23
OH 2/          :   1,170                            1,200
OR             :  27,319      6,500       24       26,229      7,000      27
PA             :   3,173        190        6        3,360        130       4
WA             :  88,160     16,000       18       93,225     14,500      16
WI             :  30,175      4,500       15       30,895      3,500      11
               :
15 States      : 413,513     92,840       22      424,897     87,640      21
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/ Stocks include processor holdings and seed to plant 1999 potatoes;  1998 crop
    seed usage total 30 million cwt.
2/ Combined to prevent disclosure of individual operations.
 
 
 
 
NOTE:  Stocks are defined as the quantity (whether sold or not) remaining in
storage for all purposes and uses, including seed potatoes not yet moved and
shrinkage, waste, and other losses that occur after the date of each report.
Sales of fall potatoes for all purposes for the past five years averaged 90.8
percent of the total fall production.  Shrinkage, loss and home use account for
the remaining 9.2 percent.
 
 
 
 
            Potatoes:  Production, Sold, Not Sold, and Kept for Seed,
                             United States, 1993-98
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          :                     Fall Potatoes                     : Amount Used
          :-------------------------------------------------------:  for Seed
   Crop   :             :         :   Sold   :         : Not Sold : All Seasons
   Year   : Production  :  Sold   : as % of  :Not Sold : as % of  :  Following
          :             :         :   Prod   :         :   Prod   :    year
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          :   ---- 1,000 Cwt ----   Percent   1,000 Cwt  Percent     1,000 Cwt
          :
1993      :   387,885     353,052    91.000    34,833       9.0       29,076
1994      :   422,345     380,818    90.200    41,527       9.8       29,428
1995      :   404,852     370,679    91.600    34,173       8.4       30,561
1996      :   454,388     408,247    89.800    46,141      10.2       29,138
1997      :   423,190     387,089    91.500    36,101       8.5       29,975
1998      :   434,368
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 
 
 
 
         Fall Potatoes:  Production, May 1 Stocks, and Farm Disposition,
                 15 States and Fall Season,  1995-98 Crop Years
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
       :     :          :          :          :        Farm Disposition
       :     :          :          :  Total   :---------------------------------
 State :Crop :          :  Stocks  :   Used   :     Where Grown      :
       :Year :Production:  May 1   :   For    :----------------------:
       :     :          :          :   Seed   :Seed, Feed,:Shrinkage :   Sold
       :     :          :          :          : Home Use  : and Loss :
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
       :     :                            1,000 Cwt
       :     :
CA     :     :
       : 1995:   5,330      1,100       242          10         460      4,860
       : 1996:   4,600      1,100       200          23         472      4,105
       : 1997:   4,200      1,200       206          20         340      3,840
       : 1998:   3,708        900
CO     :     :
       : 1995:  23,808      6,200     1,950       1,285       2,048     20,475
       : 1996:  29,175      9,900     1,925       1,485       3,975     23,715
       : 1997:  24,993      7,700     1,895       1,340       2,773     20,880
       : 1998:  25,360      6,400
ID     :     :
       : 1995: 132,657     36,000     8,700       1,785       8,920    121,952
       : 1996: 142,800     41,000     8,600       1,500      10,100    131,200
       : 1997: 140,314     41,500     8,700       1,130       9,258    129,926
       : 1998: 139,650     39,000
ME     :     :
       : 1995:  17,160      2,800     1,716         420       1,025     15,715
       : 1996:  21,175      5,300     1,584         395       1,800     18,980
       : 1997:  19,080      4,500     1,430         275       1,760     17,045
       : 1998:  18,060      3,800
MI     :     :
       : 1995:  16,350      1,200       962         168         690     15,492
       : 1996:  13,800      1,000       768         300       1,300     12,200
       : 1997:  14,250      1,000       864         200       1,300     12,750
       : 1998:  14,725        800
MN     :     :
       : 1995:  20,790      4,500     1,573         346       1,757     18,687
       : 1996:  24,600      5,500     1,348         445       4,158     19,997
       : 1997:  20,440      4,500     1,640         450       1,717     18,273
       : 1998:  21,170      4,300
MT     :     :
       : 1995:   2,940        340       239         128         147      2,665
       : 1996:   3,213        300       239         137         221      2,855
       : 1997:   3,328        150       244         152         208      2,968
       : 1998:   3,180        270
NE 1/  :     :
       : 1995:   3,680        200       292         187         284      3,209
       : 1996:   4,402        390       451         169         439      3,794
       : 1997:   7,761        300       462         203         380      7,178
       : 1998:   8,175        400
NY     :     :
       : 1995:   7,425        150       594         155         290      6,980
       : 1996:   7,420        160       583         127         341      6,952
       : 1997:   7,150        100       607         139         315      6,696
       : 1998:   7,290        140
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                     --continued
 
 
 
 
         Fall Potatoes:  Production, May 1 Stocks, and Farm Disposition,
                 15 States and Fall Season,  1995-98 (continued)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
       :     :          :          :          :        Farm Disposition
       :     :          :          :  Total   :---------------------------------
 State :Crop :          :  Stocks  :   Used   :     Where Grown      :
       :Year :Production:  May 1   :   For    :----------------------:
       :     :          :          :   Seed   :Seed, Feed,:Shrinkage :   Sold
       :     :          :          :          : Home Use  : and Loss :
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
       :     :                            1,000 Cwt
       :     :
ND     :     :
       : 1995:  25,410      4,500      2,211        280       2,800     22,330
       : 1996:  28,820      7,300      2,188        360       5,270     23,190
       : 1997:  22,000      4,700      2,142        355       2,266     19,379
       : 1998:  28,670      6,500
OH 1/  :     :
       : 1995:   1,404                   107          4          10      1,390
       : 1996:   1,275                   109          5          35      1,235
       : 1997:   1,170                   105          8          37      1,125
       : 1998:   1,200
OR     :     :
       : 1995:  24,788      4,500      1,475        148       1,450     23,190
       : 1996:  30,124      9,200      1,345        305       2,560     27,259
       : 1997:  27,319      6,500      1,405        195       1,555     25,569
       : 1998:  26,229      7,000
PA     :     :
       : 1995:   4,080        180        314         20         102      3,958
       : 1996:   4,160        160        266         81         320      3,759
       : 1997:   3,173        190        276         78         176      2,919
       : 1998:   3,360        130
WA     :     :
       : 1995:  80,850     12,500      3,912        300       6,400     74,150
       : 1996:  94,990     16,500      3,648        300       6,800     87,890
       : 1997:  88,160     16,000      3,840        300       6,400     81,460
       : 1998:  93,225     14,500
WI     :     :
       : 1995:  28,113      1,700      1,806        298       1,350     26,465
       : 1996:  33,150      5,400      1,710        320       1,425     31,405
       : 1997:  30,175      4,500      1,764        275       1,448     28,452
       : 1998:  30,895      3,500
15 Sts :     :
       : 1995: 394,785     75,870     26,093      5,534      27,733    361,518
       : 1996: 443,704    103,210     24,964      5,952      39,216    398,536
       : 1997: 413,513     92,840     25,580      5,120      29,933    378,460
       : 1998: 424,897     87,640
23 Fall:     :
       : 1995: 404,852                26,813      5,569      28,604    370,679
       : 1996: 454,388                25,608      6,054      40,087    408,247
       : 1997: 423,190                26,224      5,260      30,841    387,089
       : 1998: 434,368
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/  Combined to prevent disclosure of individual operations.
 
 
 
 
                Fall Potatoes:  Farm Marketings, Selected States,
                             1995-97 Marketing Years
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 State : Crop  :Jul :Aug :Sep :Oct :Nov :Dec :Jan :Feb :Mar :Apr :May :Jun :Jul
       : Year  :    :    :    :    :    :    :    :    :    :    :    :    :
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
       :       :                            Percent
       :       :
CO     :       :
       :  1995 :            4    8   10   10   11   10   10   12   10    9    6
       :  1996 :            4    7    9    9   10    9   10   11   10   11   10
       :  1997 :       1    4    8    9   11   10    8   11   11   10   10    7
ID     :       :
       :  1995 :       4   16   17    6    7    6    6    9    8    8    7    6
       :  1996 :       6   14   18    7    5    6    6    9    8    8    6    7
       :  1997 :       6   15   12    8    8    8    6    7    7    9    7    7
ME     :       :
       :  1995 :       2    5    7    9    9   11   11   17   18    7    4
       :  1996 :       1    8    7    7    8   10    9   14   16    9   11
       :  1997 :       1    6    7    8    8   10    9   15   17   10    9
MI     :       :
       :  1995 :       5   11   15   13   13   11    6    9   11    6
       :  1996 : 1     9   10   11   11    9   12   11   10    9    5    2
       :  1997 : 3     9   10    8   11   11   11   12   11    8    6
MN     :       :
       :  1995 :       2   30   26    6    4    5    5    6    8    6    2
       :  1996 :       6   22   19   11    5    5    7    8    8    5    4
       :  1997 :       5   22   25   11    7    5    6    7    7    5
NY     :       :
       :  1995 :       6   15   15   17   16   12    8    6    4    1
       :  1996 :       7   17   17   14   14   10    8    7    4    2
       :  1997 :       8   15   15   16   15   13    9    5    3    1
ND     :       :
       :  1995 :       3   14   16    9   10    9    9    8    9   11    2
       :  1996 :       4   12   22    8    7    7    8   10    7    6    7    2
       :  1997 :       1   12   16   13    8   12    9    9    8    6    5    1
OR     :       :
       :  1995 : 1    12   16   25    7    6    6    5    5    7    7    1    2
       :  1996 : 1    14   16   26    7    5    5    5    4    6    5    5    1
       :  1997 : 1     9   14   30    8    6    5    6    6    5    6    3    1
PA     :       :
       :  1995 :      18   18   18   13   13    9    5    3    2    1
       :  1996 : 1    12   15   13   11    9   10    8    9    6    4    2
       :  1997 : 1    13   13   12   12   12   10    8    7    8    3    1
WA     :       :
       :  1995 :      16   13   32    7    3    4    4    7    5    4    4    1
       :  1996 :      17   11   31    8    3    4    4    5    5    5    5    2
       :  1997 :      12   14   31    7    4    4    4    6    6    6    5    1
WI     :       :
       :  1995 : 1     9   17   13   12    7   10    9   11    8    3
       :  1996 : 1     6   20   14   10    7    8   11    9    7    4    3
       :  1997 : 1     7   17   14   10    9    8   11   10    7    4    2
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 
 
 
 
 
                  Potato Stocks Down 6 Percent
 
May 1, 1999 potato stocks totaled 87.6 million cwt, down 6 percent from a year
ago and 15 percent below two years ago.  Storage accounted for 21 percent of
1998 fall production, 1 percent less than a year ago.
 
Disappearance from the start of harvest to May 1 totaled 337 million cwt, up 5
percent from last year but 1 percent below the record high two years ago.
April disappearance totaled 43.3 million cwt, 5 percent above last year but
down 3 percent from April 1997.  Shrink and loss to date is estimated at 30.1
million cwt, up 18 percent from last year.
 
Processing of 1998 crop potatoes so far this season totaled 168 million cwt, up
8 percent from the 1997 crop and equal to the 1996 crop.  April processing used
a record 19.2 million cwt of raw potatoes, up 9 percent from last year and 3
percent above two years ago.
 
Eastern States stored 4.1 million cwt of potatoes on May 1, 1999, down 15
percent from a year ago and 28 percent below two years ago.  Maine's holdings
were down 16 percent from a year ago and Pennsylvania's were off 32 percent.
New York's stocks were up 40 percent.
 
Central States accounted for 15.5 million cwt of potato stocks this May, up 3
percent from May 1998 but 21 percent below two years ago.  North Dakota's
stocks were up 38 percent from last year.  Wisconsin's stocks were off  22
percent,  Michigan was down 20 percent, and Minnesota was down 4 percent from
last year.
 
Western States held 68.1 million cwt of potatoes in storage on May 1, 1999,
down 7 percent from last year and 15 percent below May 1997.  Idaho's stocks
were down 6 percent and account for 57 percent of the Western States' total.
California's stocks were down 25 percent and Colorado dropped 17 percent.
Washington's stocks were down 9 percent but Oregon stored 8 percent more than a
year ago.  Montana's seed movement is late with remaining storage 80 percent
above last year at this time.
 
 
 
 
              Reliability of May 1 Stocks Estimates
 
The "Root Mean Square Error" for the May 1 stocks estimate is 7.6 percent.
This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current estimate of 87.6
million cwt will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 7.6
percent or approximately 6.7 million cwt.  Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent
confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 13.1 percent or about
11.5 million cwt.
 
The 10-year (1989-98) record of the differences between the May 1 stocks
estimates and the final estimates averaged 4.7 million cwt, ranging from 0.6
million to 11.5 million cwt.  During the 10-year period, the May 1 stocks
forecast has been below the final 9 out of 10 years.
 
 
 
 
             Fall Potato Stocks:  Preliminary and Final May Stocks,
                             United States, 1988-98
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
   Crop   :      Preliminary      :        % of         :         Final
   Year   :        Stocks         :        Final        :        Stocks
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          :       1,000 Cwt               Percent               1,000 Cwt
          :
1988      :         54,390                  91.6                  59,355
1989      :         50,125                  98.9                  50,675
1990      :         54,400                  86.3                  63,040
1991      :         70,020                 101.3                  69,110
1992      :         63,550                  84.7                  75,040
1993      :         68,060                  93.4                  72,860
1994      :         81,495                  93.0                  87,600
1995      :         72,210                  95.2                  75,870
1996      :        100,780                  97.6                 103,210
1997      :         87,113                  93.8                  92,840
1998      :         87,640
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 
 
 
 
The next "Potato Stocks" report will be released at 3 p.m. ET on June 15, 1999.
 
 
 
 
The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination in
all its programs on the basis of race, color, national origin, gender,
religion, age, disability, political beliefs, sexual orientation, and marital
or family status.  (Not all prohibited bases apply to all programs.)  Persons
with disabilities who require alternative means for communication of program
information (braille, large print, audiotape, etc.) should contact the USDA's
TARGET Center at 202-720-2600 (voice and TDD).
 
To file a complaint of discrimination, write USDA, Director, Office of Civil
Rights, Room 326-W, Whitten Building, 14th and Independence Avenue, SW,
Washington, D.C., 20250-9410, or call 202-720-5964 (voice or TDD).  USDA is an
equal opportunity provider and employer.
 
 
                        ACCESS TO REPORTS!!
 
 
 
For your convenience, there are several ways to obtain NASS reports, data
products, and services:
 
                          INTERNET ACCESS
 
All NASS reports are available free of charge on the worldwide Internet.  For
access, connect to the Internet and go to the NASS Home Page at:
http://www.usda.gov/nass/.  Select "Today's Reports" or Publications and then
Reports by Calendar or Publications and then Search, by Title or Subject.
 
                        E-MAIL SUBSCRIPTION
 
All NASS reports are available by subscription free of charge direct to your
e-mail address.  Send an e-mail message to:
usda-reports@usda.mannlib.cornell.edu.  In the body of the message type the
word:  list.
 
 
                          AUTOFAX ACCESS
 
NASSFax service is available for some reports from your fax machine.  Please
call 202-720-2000, using the handset attached to your fax.  Respond to the
voice prompts.  Document 0411 is a list of available reports.
 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
                PRINTED REPORTS OR DATA PRODUCTS
 
 CALL OUR TOLL-FREE ORDER DESK:   800-999-6779 (U.S. and Canada)
Other areas, please call 703-834-0125                FAX:  703-834-0110
(Visa, MasterCard, check, or money order acceptable for payment.)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
 
                           ASSISTANCE
 
For assistance with general agricultural statistics or further information
about NASS or its products or services, contact the Agricultural Statistics
Hotline at 800-727-9540, 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET, or e-mail:
nass@nass.usda.gov.