HDR1012000110080412961500POTATO STOCKS                                          
Released April 12, 1996, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS),
Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture.  For information 
on "Potato Stocks" call Arvin Budge at (202) 720-4285, office hours 8:00 a.m. to
4:30 p.m. ET.  For assistance with general agricultural statistics, information 
about NASS, its products or services, contact the NASS Information Hotline at   
1-800-727-9540 or E-mail: NASS@NASS.USDA.GOV.                                   
                                                                                
                                                                                
                  Potato Stocks Down 12 Percent                                 
                                                                                
Potato stocks totaled 113 million cwt on April 1, 1996, down 12 percent from    
last year and 3 percent below two years ago.  April stocks covered 29 percent of
fall potato production in the 15 storage States compared with 31 percent a year 
ago.  Disappearance for the season, at 279 million cwt of potatoes, was slightly
less than last year but 8 percent above 1994.  Shrink and loss of 27.9 million  
cwt was 2 percent below a year ago.  Processors used a record high 139 million  
cwt of potatoes, up 3 percent for the season.  March processing totaled 17.9    
million cwt, down 2 percent from a year earlier.                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
Pot 1-2 (4-96)                                                                  
         Fall Potatoes:  Production and Stocks, 15 Major States, 1986-95        
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
   Crop  :          :         :         :         :         :         :         
   Year  :Production:  Dec 1  :  Jan 1  :  Feb 1  :  Mar 1  :  Apr 1  :  May 1  
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
         :                              1,000 Cwt                               
         :                                                                      
1986     : 307,928    209,435   180,915   154,545   128,720    95,090   59,790  
1987     : 335,607    225,890   196,760   167,325   138,800   105,905   70,030  
1988     : 305,623    206,420   177,750   151,050   124,485    92,585   59,355  
1989     : 316,097    202,050   173,550   144,290   116,600    84,320   50,675  
1990     : 344,200    225,500   194,460   162,850   134,470   101,150   63,040  
1991     : 363,541    242,070   211,005   178,515   145,820   108,865   69,110  
1992     : 368,516    246,820   215,990   184,560   152,795   115,785   75,040  
1993     : 375,004    249,710   217,800   186,090   154,135   115,970   73,860  
1994     : 409,009    271,890   237,560   201,870   168,770   128,825   87,500  
1995     : 391,816    252,080   218,970   184,755   152,255   112,925           
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
        Potatoes:  Quantity Used for Processing, Eight States, 1993-95 1/       
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
     State and     :        :        :        :       :       :       :         
     Crop Year     : Dec 1  : Jan 1  : Feb 1  : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 : Season  
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                   :                         1,000 Cwt                          
                   :                                                            
ID & OR-Malheur Co :                                                            
  1993             : 24,090   30,540   37,150   44,720  53,070  61,440   85,780 
  1994             : 26,620   34,230   42,330   49,890  57,990  66,680   90,300 
  1995             : 27,310   35,040   43,260   51,530  59,060                  
                   :                                                            
ME 2/              :                                                            
  1993             :  1,350    1,720    2,210    2,505   2,890   3,275    4,555 
  1994             :  1,505    1,840    2,265    2,540   2,985   3,330    4,770 
  1995             :  1,335    1,685    2,200    2,540   3,025                  
                   :                                                            
WA & OR - Other    :                                                            
  1993             : 28,260   33,350   39,010   45,020  51,290  57,180   70,690 
  1994             : 28,670   33,480   39,120   46,070  52,940  59,540   76,780 
  1995             : 30,000   35,170   39,460   45,280  51,730                  
                   :                                                            
Oth Sts 3/         :                                                            
  1993             :  7,605    9,515   11,605   13,720  16,080  18,705   25,690 
  1994             :  9,725   13,110   15,630   18,260  21,115  24,060   32,260 
  1995             : 12,360   15,330   18,415   21,485  24,910                  
                   :                                                            
Total              :                                                            
  1993             : 61,305   75,125   89,975  105,965 123,330 140,600  186,715 
  1994             : 66,520   82,660   99,345  116,760 135,030 153,610  204,110 
  1995             : 71,005   87,225  103,335  120,835 138,725                  
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/  Total quantity received and used for processing regardless of the State in  
    which the potatoes were produced.  Amount excludes quantities used for      
    potato chips in ME, MI, MN, ND, and WI.                                     
2/  Includes Maine grown potatoes only.                                         
3/  MI, MN, ND, and WI.                                                         
                                                                                
          Fall Potatoes:  Production and Stocks on April 1, 1995-96 1/          
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
               :          Crop of 1994          :         Crop of 1995          
               :----------------------------------------------------------------
     State     :          :  Stocks  :    %     :          :  Stocks  :    %    
               :   Prod   :  Apr 1,  :    of    :   Prod   :  Apr 1,  :   of    
               :          :   1995   :   Prod   :          :   1996   :  Prod   
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
               : ---- 1,000 Cwt ---      Pct      ---- 1,000 Cwt ---      Pct   
               :                                                                
CA             :   5,600      2,100       38        5,330      1,600      30    
CO             :  25,795      8,500       33       23,808      9,100      38    
ID             : 138,801     55,000       40      131,274     48,000      37    
ME             :  18,375      5,200       28       17,160      5,700      33    
MI             :  12,180      2,500       21       16,500      3,500      21    
MN             :  17,755      6,000       34       20,790      6,800      33    
MT             :   3,200      1,950       61        2,940      1,880      64    
NE             :   3,996        690       17        3,680      2/645            
NY             :   7,805      2/465                 7,695        600       8    
ND             :  28,200      7,500       27       25,410      7,000      28    
OH             :   1,348         2/                 1,404         2/            
OR             :  27,514     10,100       37       23,760      6,200      26    
PA             :   3,780        420       11        4,080        400      10    
WA             :  88,920     23,500       26       80,850     17,000      21    
WI             :  25,740      4,900       19       27,135      4,500      17    
               :                                                                
Total 15 State : 409,009    128,825       31      391,816    112,925      29    
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/  Stocks include processor holdings and seed to plant 1996 potatoes.          
    1995 crop seed usage totaled 29.3 million cwt.                              
                                                                                
2/  Combined to prevent possible disclosure of individual operations.           
                                                                                
                  Potato Stocks Down 12 Percent                                 
                                                                                
                                                                                
April 1, 1996 stocks totaled 113 million cwt, down 12 percent from last year and
3 percent below two years ago.  Stocks made up 29 percent of fall potato        
production in the 15 storage States, down two points from a year ago.  Season-  
to-date disappearance totaled 279 million cwt, slightly less than last year but 
8 percent above 1994.  Processor usage of 139 million cwt was up 3 percent from 
last year.  Shrinkage and loss to date was 27.9 million cwt, 2 percent below a  
year ago.                                                                       
                                                                                
                                                                                
Processing continued to move potatoes at a record pace for the season,          
accounting for 139 million cwt of potatoes, up 3 percent from the same period   
last year and 12 percent above two years ago.  March processor usage was 17.9   
million cwt, down 2 percent from a year ago but 3 percent above two years ago.  
                                                                                
                                                                                
Disappearance from the start of harvest through March totaled 279 million cwt of
potatoes, down slightly from last year but 8 percent above two years ago.       
Shrinkage and loss was 27.9 million cwt, 2 percent less than the 28.5 million   
cwt lost last year but 4 percent above losses two years ago.                    
                                                                                
                                                                                
Eastern States stored 6.70 million cwt of potatoes on April 1, 1996, up         
10 percent from last year and 1 percent above two years ago.  Maine's stocks    
were up 10 percent.  New York gained 33 percent.  Pennsylvania was down         
5 percent.                                                                      
                                                                                
                                                                                
Central States held 22.4 million cwt of potatoes in storage on April 1, 1996.   
This is 4 percent above last year and 34 percent higher than two years ago.     
Michigan's stocks were up 40 percent and Minnesota's were up 13 percent with the
addition of former summer area potatoes included this year.  Wisconsin's stocks 
were off 8 percent while North Dakota's stocks were off 7 percent from last     
year.                                                                           
                                                                                
                                                                                
Western States potato stocks totaled 83.8 million cwt in six States, down       
17  percent from last year and 10 percent below two years ago.  Idaho's stocks  
were down 13 percent.  Washington's stocks were off 28 percent and Oregon's     
stocks fell 39 percent.  Montana's stocks were down 4 percent and California    
dropped 24 percent from a year ago.  Colorado, with 7 percent more potatoes, was
the only Western State with an increase over a year earlier.  As we head for an 
apparent shortfall, some processing potatoes will be brought in from Arizona's  
and California's spring crop.                                                   
                                                                                
             Reliability of April 1 Stocks Estimates                            
                                                                                
                                                                                
The "Root Mean Square Error" for the April 1 stocks estimate is 5.8 percent.    
This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current estimate of 113 million 
cwt will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 5.8 percent or   
approximately 6.5 million cwt.  Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence  
level) that the difference will not exceed 10.0 percent or 11.3 million cwt.    
                                                                                
The 10-year (1986-95) record of differences between the April 1 stocks estimate 
and the final estimates averaged 4.6 million cwt, ranging from 0.01 million cwt 
to 12.8 million cwt.  During this 10-year period, the April 1 estimate has been 
below the final estimate 8 out of 10 years.                                     
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
            Fall Potato Stocks:  Preliminary and Final April Stocks,            
                             United States, 1985-95                             
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
   Crop   :      Preliminary      :        % of         :         Final         
   Year   :        Stocks         :        Final        :       Stocks 1/       
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          :       1,000 Cwt               Percent               1,000 Cwt       
          :                                                                     
1985      :        102,590                  98.1                 104,540        
1986      :         91,670                  96.4                  95,090        
1987      :        105,895                 100.0                 105,905        
1988      :         86,745                  93.7                  92,585        
1989      :         83,540                  99.1                  84,320        
1990      :         91,910                  90.9                 101,150        
1991      :        109,600                 100.7                 108,865        
1992      :        103,010                  89.0                 115,785        
1993      :        108,455                  93.5                 115,970        
1994      :        123,285                  95.7                 128,825        
1995      :        112,925                                                      
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/  As reported in the September "Potato" annual report.                        
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
Note:  Stocks are defined as the quantity (whether sold or not) remaining in    
       storage for all purposes and uses, including seed potatoes not yet moved 
       and shrinkage, waste, and other losses that occur after the date of each 
       report.  Sales of fall potatoes for all purposes for the past 5 years    
       averaged 91.0 percent of the total fall production shrinkage, loss and   
       home use account for the remaining 9.0 percent.  Most seed for use the   
       following year is on hand but remains as part of stocks until planted.   
                                                                                
The next "Potato Stocks" report will be released at 3 p.m. ET on May 14, 1996.  
                                                                                
                                                                                
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employment opportunity employer.                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
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