Pot 1-2  (2-99)
 
 
 
Potato
Stocks
 
National
Agricultural
Statistics
Service
 
 
 
 
USDA
Washington, D.C.
 
 
Released February 12, 1999, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service
(NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture.  For
information on "Potato Stocks" call Arvin Budge at (202) 720-4285, office hours
7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET.
 
 
              February Potato Stocks Down 1 Percent
 
The 15 major potato States held 211 million cwt of potatoes on February 1,
1999, down 1 percent from last year and 7 percent below 1997.  Storage
accounted for 50 percent of 1998 fall production, down 1 percent from a year
ago.  This year's storage held more russets and round whites but fewer long
whites than a year earlier.   Disappearance, at 214 million cwt, is up 6
percent from last year including a 9 percent gain in processing.
 
 
 
 
         Fall Potatoes:  Production and Stocks, 15 Major States, 1989-98
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
   Crop  :          :         :         :         :         :         :
   Year  :Production:  Dec 1  :  Jan 1  :  Feb 1  :  Mar 1  :  Apr 1  :  May 1
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
         :                              1,000 Cwt
         :
1989     : 316,097    202,050   173,550   144,290   116,600    84,320    50,675
1990     : 344,200    225,500   194,460   162,850   134,470   101,150    63,040
1991     : 363,541    242,070   211,005   178,515   145,820   108,865    69,110
1992     : 368,516    246,820   215,990   184,560   152,795   115,785    75,040
1993     : 376,954    249,410   217,300   185,490   153,435   115,170    72,860
1994     : 410,839    273,290   238,560   202,470   169,570   129,825    87,600
1995     : 394,785    256,710   223,550   189,360   156,020   115,855    75,870
1996     : 443,704    295,100   261,320   226,080   189,210   147,585   103,210
1997     : 413,513    278,830   246,550   212,562   175,870   134,190    92,840
1998     : 424,897    282,300   246,220   211,100
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 
 
 
 
          Potatoes:  Quantity Used for Processing, 8 States, 1995-98 1/
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
     State and     :        :        :        :       :       :       :
     Crop Year     : Dec 1  : Jan 1  : Feb 1  : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 : Season
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                   :                         1,000 Cwt
                   :
ID & OR-Malheur Co :
  1995             : 27,310   35,040   43,260   51,530  59,060  66,690   89,250
  1996             : 31,060   38,210   45,420   54,640  62,570  70,720   96,970
  1997             : 26,880   33,950   41,050   49,470  57,620  65,750   91,450
  1998             : 27,510   34,700   42,670
                   :
ME 2/              :
  1995             :  1,455    1,850    2,430    2,850   3,435   3,965    5,725
  1996             :  1,790    2,115    2,820    3,280   3,820   4,420    6,495
  1997             :  1,250    1,720    2,265    2,735   3,355   3,900    5,870
  1998             :  1,180    1,710    2,260
                   :
WA & OR - Other    :
  1995             : 30,000   35,170   39,460   45,280  51,730  57,360   70,250
  1996             : 31,670   36,660   41,700   48,740  55,570  62,320   80,970
  1997             : 28,580   33,990   38,690   46,400  53,720  59,780   76,930
  1998             : 33,460   38,895   45,650
                   :
Oth Sts 3/         :
  1995             : 12,650   15,630   18,815   21,985  25,510  28,610   33,580
  1996             : 13,720   17,000   20,645   24,085  27,650  30,830   43,100
  1997             : 11,645   13,960   17,115   19,905  23,515  26,365   37,842
  1998 4/          : 11,020   13,785   17,510
                   :
Total              :
  1995             : 71,415   87,690  103,965  121,645 139,735 156,625  198,805
  1996             : 78,240   93,985  110,585  130,745 149,610 168,290  227,535
  1997             : 68,355   83,620   99,120  118,510 138,210 155,795  212,092
  1998             : 73,170   89,090  108,090
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/  Total quantity received and used for processing regardless of the State in
    which the potatoes were produced.  Amount excludes quantities used for
    potato chips in ME, MI, MN, ND, and WI.
2/  Includes Maine grown potatoes only.
3/  MI, MN, ND, and WI.
4/  January 1999 corrected.
 
 
 
 
          Fall Potatoes:  Production and Stocks on February 1, 1998-99
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
               :          Crop of 1997          :         Crop of 1998
               :----------------------------------------------------------------
     State     :          :  Stocks  :    %     :          :  Stocks  :    %
               :   Prod   :  Feb 1,  :    of    :   Prod   :  Feb 1,  :   of
               :          :   1998   :   Prod   :          :   1999   :  Prod
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
               : ---- 1,000 Cwt ---    Percent    ---- 1,000 Cwt ---    Percent
               :
CA             :   4,200      2,100       50        3,708      2,000      54
CO             :  24,993     14,700       59       25,360     14,000      55
ID             : 140,314     81,000       58      139,650     79,000      57
ME             :  19,080     12,100       63       18,060     10,500      58
MI             :  14,250      5,500       39       14,725      5,400      37
MN             :  20,440     10,500       51       21,170     10,500      50
MT             :   3,328      2,980       90        3,180      2,890      91
NE             :   7,761      3,300       43        8,175      4,240      52
NY             :   7,150      1,500       21        7,290      1,600      22
ND             :  22,000     11,900       54       28,670     14,000      49
OH             :   1,170         82        7        1,200         70       6
OR             :  27,319     16,000       59       26,229     15,800      60
PA             :   3,173      1,200       38        3,360        800      24
WA             :  88,160     36,500       41       93,225     36,500      39
WI             :  30,175     13,200       44       30,895     13,800      45
               :
15 States      : 413,513    212,562       51      424,897    211,100      50
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 
 
 
 
       Fall Potatoes:  Stocks by Type as Percent of Total Stocks,
                  11 Major States, February 1, 1998-99
------------------------------------------------------------------------
         :                         Potato Types
         :--------------------------------------------------------------
         :     Reds     : Round Whites  :  Long Whites  :    Russets
  State  :--------------------------------------------------------------
         : 1998 : 1999  : 1998  : 1999  : 1998  : 1999  : 1998  : 1999
------------------------------------------------------------------------
         :                           Percent
         :
CO       :   5      4       2       6                      93      90
ID       :                                  8       4      92      96
ME       :   4      4      49      46       7       9      40      41
MI       :   1      1      74      84                      25      15
MN       :  10     12       7       5       3       3      80      80
NY       :   5      5      93      93                       2       2
ND       :  12     11      13      18       5       3      70      68
OR       :   1              2       2       1       4      96      94
PA       :   3      2      97      98
WA       :   1      1                       3       3      96      96
WI       :   1      2      16      18                      83      80
         :
11 St Avg:   2      2       9      10       5       3      84      85
------------------------------------------------------------------------
 
 
 
 
      Fall Potatoes:  Production, February 1 Stocks, and Farm Disposition,
                 15 States and Fall Season,  1995-98 Crop Years
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
       :     :          :          :          :        Farm Disposition
       :     :          :          :  Total   :---------------------------------
 State :Crop :          :  Stocks  :   Used   :     Where Grown      :
       :Year :Production:  Feb 1   :   For    :----------------------:
       :     :          :          :   Seed   :Seed, Feed,:Shrinkage :   Sold
       :     :          :          :          : Home Use  : and Loss :
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
       :     :                            1,000 Cwt
       :     :
CA     :     :
       : 1995:    5,330      2,800       242          10         460      4,860
       : 1996:    4,600      2,500       200          23         472      4,105
       : 1997:    4,200      2,100       206          20         340      3,840
       : 1998:    3,708      2,000
CO     :     :
       : 1995:   23,808     13,400     1,950       1,285       2,048     20,475
       : 1996:   29,175     18,100     1,925       1,485       3,975     23,715
       : 1997:   24,993     14,700     1,895       1,340       2,773     20,880
       : 1998:   25,360     14,000
ID     :     :
       : 1995:  132,657     73,500     8,700       1,785       8,920    121,952
       : 1996:  142,800     82,000     8,600       1,500      10,100    131,200
       : 1997:  140,314     81,000     8,700       1,130       9,258    129,926
       : 1998:  139,650     79,000
ME     :     :
       : 1995:   17,160     10,400     1,716         420       1,025     15,715
       : 1996:   21,175     13,100     1,584         395       1,800     18,980
       : 1997:   19,080     12,100     1,430         275       1,760     17,045
       : 1998:   18,060     10,500
MI     :     :
       : 1995:   16,350      6,500       962         168         690     15,492
       : 1996:   13,800      4,600       768         300       1,300     12,200
       : 1997:   14,250      5,500       864         200       1,300     12,750
       : 1998:   14,725      5,400
MN     :     :
       : 1995:   20,790     10,200     1,573         346       1,757     18,687
       : 1996:   24,600     13,200     1,348         445       4,158     19,997
       : 1997:   20,440     10,500     1,640         450       1,717     18,273
       : 1998:   21,170     10,500
MT     :     :
       : 1995:    2,940      2,600       239         128         147      2,665
       : 1996:    3,213      2,850       239         137         221      2,855
       : 1997:    3,328      2,980       244         152         208      2,968
       : 1998:    3,180      2,890
NE     :     :
       : 1995:    3,680      2,000       292         187         284      3,209
       : 1996:    4,402      2,440       451         169         439      3,794
       : 1997:    7,761      3,300       462         203         380      7,178
       : 1998:    8,175      4,240
NY     :     :
       : 1995:    7,425      1,500       594         155         290      6,980
       : 1996:    7,420      1,400       583         127         341      6,952
       : 1997:    7,150      1,500       607         139         315      6,696
       : 1998:    7,290      1,600
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                     --continued
 
 
 
 
      Fall Potatoes:  Production, February 1 Stocks, and Farm Disposition,
                 15 States and Fall Season,  1995-98 (continued)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
       :     :          :          :          :        Farm Disposition
       :     :          :          :  Total   :---------------------------------
 State :Crop :          :  Stocks  :   Used   :     Where Grown      :
       :Year :Production:  Feb 1   :   For    :----------------------:
       :     :          :          :   Seed   :Seed, Feed,:Shrinkage :   Sold
       :     :          :          :          : Home Use  : and Loss :
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
       :     :                            1,000 Cwt
       :     :
ND     :     :
       : 1995:   25,410     11,500      2,211        280       2,800     22,330
       : 1996:   28,820     15,000      2,188        360       5,270     23,190
       : 1997:   22,000     11,900      2,142        355       2,266     19,379
       : 1998:   28,670     14,000
OH     :     :
       : 1995:    1,404         60        107          4          10      1,390
       : 1996:    1,275         90        109          5          35      1,235
       : 1997:    1,170         82        105          8          37      1,125
       : 1998:    1,200         70
OR     :     :
       : 1995:   24,788     12,300      1,475        148       1,450     23,190
       : 1996:   30,124     19,000      1,345        305       2,560     27,259
       : 1997:   27,319     16,000      1,405        195       1,555     25,569
       : 1998:   26,229     15,800
PA     :     :
       : 1995:    4,080      1,200        314         20         102      3,958
       : 1996:    4,160      1,300        266         81         320      3,759
       : 1997:    3,173      1,200        276         78         176      2,919
       : 1998:    3,360        800
WA     :     :
       : 1995:   80,850     30,500      3,912        300       6,400     74,150
       : 1996:   94,990     36,500      3,648        300       6,800     87,890
       : 1997:   88,160     36,500      3,840        300       6,400     81,460
       : 1998:   93,225     36,500
WI     :     :
       : 1995:   28,113     10,900      1,806        298       1,350     26,465
       : 1996:   33,150     14,000      1,710        320       1,425     31,405
       : 1997:   30,175     13,200      1,764        275       1,448     28,452
       : 1998:   30,895     13,800
15 Sts :     :
       : 1995:  394,785    189,360     26,093      5,534      27,733    361,518
       : 1996:  443,704    226,080     24,964      5,952      39,216    398,536
       : 1997:  413,513    212,562     25,580      5,120      29,933    378,460
       : 1998:  424,897    211,100
23 Fall:     :
       : 1995:  404,852                26,813      5,569      28,604    370,679
       : 1996:  454,388                25,608      6,054      40,087    408,247
       : 1997:  423,190                26,224      5,260      30,841    387,089
       : 1998:  434,368
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 
 
 
 
                Fall Potatoes:  Farm Marketings, Selected States,
                             1995-97 Marketing Years
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 State : Crop  :Jul :Aug :Sep :Oct :Nov :Dec :Jan :Feb :Mar :Apr :May :Jun :Jul
       : Year  :    :    :    :    :    :    :    :    :    :    :    :    :
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
       :       :                            Percent
       :       :
CO     :       :
       :  1995 :             4    8   10   10   11   10   10   12   10    9    6
       :  1996 :             4    7    9    9   10    9   10   11   10   11   10
       :  1997 :        1    4    8    9   11   10    8   11   11   10   10    7
ID     :       :
       :  1995 :        4   16   17    6    7    6    6    9    8    8    7    6
       :  1996 :        6   14   18    7    5    6    6    9    8    8    6    7
       :  1997 :        6   15   12    8    8    8    6    7    7    9    7    7
ME     :       :
       :  1995 :        2    5    7    9    9   11   11   17   18    7    4
       :  1996 :        1    8    7    7    8   10    9   14   16    9   11
       :  1997 :        1    6    7    8    8   10    9   15   17   10    9
MI     :       :
       :  1995 :        5   11   15   13   13   11    6    9   11    6
       :  1996 :  1     9   10   11   11    9   12   11   10    9    5    2
       :  1997 :  3     9   10    8   11   11   11   12   11    8    6
MN     :       :
       :  1995 :        2   30   26    6    4    5    5    6    8    6    2
       :  1996 :        6   22   19   11    5    5    7    8    8    5    4
       :  1997 :        5   22   25   11    7    5    6    7    7    5
NY     :       :
       :  1995 :        6   15   15   17   16   12    8    6    4    1
       :  1996 :        7   17   17   14   14   10    8    7    4    2
       :  1997 :        8   15   15   16   15   13    9    5    3    1
ND     :       :
       :  1995 :        3   14   16    9   10    9    9    8    9   11    2
       :  1996 :        4   12   22    8    7    7    8   10    7    6    7    2
       :  1997 :        1   12   16   13    8   12    9    9    8    6    5    1
OR     :       :
       :  1995 :  1    12   16   25    7    6    6    5    5    7    7    1    2
       :  1996 :  1    14   16   26    7    5    5    5    4    6    5    5    1
       :  1997 :  1     9   14   30    8    6    5    6    6    5    6    3    1
PA     :       :
       :  1995 :       18   18   18   13   13    9    5    3    2    1
       :  1996 :  1    12   15   13   11    9   10    8    9    6    4    2
       :  1997 :  1    13   13   12   12   12   10    8    7    8    3    1
WA     :       :
       :  1995 :       16   13   32    7    3    4    4    7    5    4    4    1
       :  1996 :       17   11   31    8    3    4    4    5    5    5    5    2
       :  1997 :       12   14   31    7    4    4    4    6    6    6    5    1
WI     :       :
       :  1995 :  1     9   17   13   12    7   10    9   11    8    3
       :  1996 :  1     6   20   14   10    7    8   11    9    7    4    3
       :  1997 :  1     7   17   14   10    9    8   11   10    7    4    2
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 
 
 
              Potato Stocks Down 1 Percent
 
February 1, 1999 potato stocks totaled 211 million cwt, down 1 percent from a
year ago and 7 percent below two years ago.  Storage accounted for 50 percent
of fall production, down 1 percentage point from a year ago.   Stocks by type
were 2 percent reds, 10 percent round whites, 3 percent long white, and 85
percent russets, with more russets and round whites but fewer long whites than
a year ago.
 
Disappearance from the start of harvest to February 1 totaled 214 million cwt
this season, up 6 percent from last year but 2 percent below the record high
two years ago.  January disappearance of 35.1 million cwt was 3 percent above
last year but down slightly from two years ago.  Shrink and loss of 22.5
million cwt was up 16 percent from last year but 3 percent below two years ago.
 
Processing of 1998 crop potatoes so far this season totaled 108.1 million cwt,
up 9 percent from the 1997 crop but 2 percent below the 1996 crop.  In January,
processors claimed a record 19.0 million cwt of potatoes, up 23 percent from
last year and 14 percent above two years ago.  The two month total (December
and January) was up 14 percent from a year earlier.
 
Eastern States stored 12.9 million cwt of potatoes on February 1, 1999, down 13
percent from a year ago and 18 percent below two years ago.  Maine's holdings
were down 13 percent and Pennsylvania's stocks were off one-third.  New York's
storage was up 7 percent from last year.
Central States accounted for 48.0 million cwt of potato stocks this February, 8
percent above 1998 but 5 percent below 1997.  North Dakota's stocks were up 18
percent and Nebraska was up 28 percent.  Stocks in Wisconsin were up 5 percent
from last year.  Minnesota's stocks were equal to last year and Michigan's
stocks fell 2 percent.  Ohio's stocks were 15 percent below last year.
 
Western States held 150.2 million cwt of potatoes in storage on February 1,
1999, down 2 percent from last year and 7 percent below 1997.  Idaho's stocks
were down 2 percent from a year ago, and Oregon's were off 1 percent.  Colorado
and California were down 5 percent each and Montana's storage was down 3
percent.  Washington's stocks were the same as last year.
 
 
 
 
                Fall Potatoes:  Stocks on December 1, 1995-98 1/
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    State   :      1995      :      1996      :      1997      :      1998
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
            :                             1,000 Cwt
            :
CA          :      4,000            3,500            2,700            2,900
CO          :     18,200           23,100           19,400           18,800
ID          :     96,000          102,000          102,000          101,000
ME          :     13,800           16,900           15,600           14,100
MI          :      9,600            8,000            8,500            8,800
MN          :     13,500           16,500           13,500           13,500
MT          :      2,800            3,050            3,180            3,050
NE          :      2,600            3,160            5,300            5,480
NY          :      3,400            3,700            3,600            3,800
ND          :     17,000           20,500           16,000           20,500
OH          :        310              290              350              270
OR          :     17,200           23,600           20,500           20,000
PA          :      2,400            2,800            2,000            1,400
WA          :     39,500           48,000           47,000           49,000
WI          :     16,400           20,000           19,200           19,700
            :
15 States   :    256,710          295,100          278,830          282,300
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/  The revised December 1 stocks estimates for 1995-97 are based on the 1992-97
    final production estimates published on Decmber 18, 1998.  These production
    data are available in the Field Crops - Final Estimates 1992-97, Statistical
    Bulletin 947.  The December 1, 1998 stocks are unchanged from the January
    14, 1999 Potato Stocks report.
 
 
 
           Reliability of February 1 Stocks Estimates
 
The "Root Mean Square Error" for the February 1 stocks estimate is 3.4 percent.
This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current estimate of 211 million
cwt will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 3.4 percent or
approximately 7.17 million cwt.  Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence
level) that the difference will not exceed 5.8 percent or approximately 12.2
million cwt.  The 10-year (1989-98) record of the differences between the
February 1 stocks estimates and the final estimates averaged 6.13 million cwt,
ranging from 0.45 million to 14.2 million cwt.  During the 10-year period, the
February 1 estimate has been below the final estimate 9 out of 10 years.
 
 
 
 
           Fall Potato Stocks:  Preliminary and Final February Stocks,
                             United States, 1988-98
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
   Crop   :      Preliminary      :        % of         :         Final
   Year   :        Stocks         :        Final        :        Stocks
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          :       1,000 Cwt               Percent               1,000 Cwt
          :
1988      :        144,625                  95.7                 151,050
1989      :        143,150                  99.2                 144,290
1990      :        154,310                  94.8                 162,850
1991      :        178,965                 100.3                 178,515
1992      :        170,385                  92.3                 184,560
1993      :        178,070                  95.7                 186,090
1994      :        196,005                  96.8                 202,470
1995      :        184,755                  97.6                 189,360
1996      :        220,465                  97.5                 226,080
1997      :        205,850                  96.8                 212,562
1998      :        211,100
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 
 
 
 
NOTE:  Stocks are defined as the quantity (whether sold or not) remaining in
storage for all purposes and uses, including seed potatoes not yet moved and
shrinkage, waste, and other losses that occur after the date of each report.
Sales of fall potatoes for all purposes for the past 5 years averaged 90.8
percent of the total fall production.  Shrinkage, loss and home use account for
the remaining 9.2 percent.  Most seed for use the following year is still on
hand February 1st, but remains part of stocks until moved or planted.
 
 
 
 
            Potatoes:  Production, Sold, Not Sold, and Kept for Seed,
                             United States, 1993-98
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          :                     Fall Potatoes                     : Amount Used
          :-------------------------------------------------------:  for Seed
   Crop   :             :         :   Sold   :         : Not Sold : All Seasons
   Year   : Production  :  Sold   : as % of  :Not Sold : as % of  :  Following
          :             :         :   Prod   :         :   Prod   :    year
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          :   ---- 1,000 Cwt ----   Percent   1,000 Cwt  Percent     1,000 Cwt
          :
1993      :   387,885     353,052     91.0     34,833       9.0       29,076
1994      :   422,345     380,818     90.2     41,527       9.8       29,428
1995      :   404,852     370,679     91.6     34,173       8.4       30,561
1996      :   454,388     408,247     89.8     46,141      10.2       29,138
1997      :   423,190     387,089     91.5     36,101       8.5       29,975
1998      :   434,368
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 
 
 
The next "Potato Stocks" report will be released at 3 p.m. ET on March 12, 1999.
 
 
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call 202-720-2000, using the handset attached to your fax.  Respond to the
voice prompts.  Document 0411 is a list of available reports.
 
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                PRINTED REPORTS OR DATA PRODUCTS
 
 CALL OUR TOLL-FREE ORDER DESK:   800-999-6779 (U.S. and Canada)
Other areas, please call 703-834-0125                FAX:  703-834-0110
(Visa, MasterCard, check, or money order acceptable for payment.)
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                           ASSISTANCE
 
For assistance with general agricultural statistics or further information
about NASS or its products or services, contact the Agricultural Statistics
Hotline at 800-727-9540, 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET, or e-mail:
nass@nass.usda.gov.