Milk
Production
 
National
Agricultural
Statistics
Service
 
 
USDA
Washington, D.C.
 
 
 
Released April 15, 1999, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service
(NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture.
For information on "Milk Production" call James Hand at 202-690-3236,
office hours 7:00 a.m. to 4:30 p.m. ET.
 
 
 
 
 
             March Milk Production Up 4.0 Percent
 
Milk production in the 20 major States during March totaled 12.1 billion
pounds, up 4.0 percent from production in these same States in March
1998. February revised production, at 10.8 billion pounds was up 4.0
percent from February 1998.
 
 
Production per cow in the 20 major States averaged 1,577 pounds for
March, 62 pounds above March 1998.
 
 
The number of cows on farms in the 20 major States was 7.70 million
head, 5,000 head less than March 1998, but 2,000 head more than February
1999.
 
 
           January-March Milk Production Up 3.3 Percent
 
The quarterly production of milk for the U.S. was 40.5 billion pounds,
3.3 percent above the January-March period last year. The average number
of milk cows in the U.S. during the January-March quarter was 9.13
million head, 42,000 head less than the same period last year.
 
 
 
Da 1-1  (4-99)
 
 
 
 
        Milk Cows and Production:  By Quarter, United States, 1998-99 1/
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          :   Milk Cows 2/    :  Milk Per Cow 3/  :     Milk Production 3/
          :---------------------------------------------------------------------
  Quarter :         :         :         :         :         :         : Change
          :  1998   :  1999   :  1998   :  1999   :  1998   :  1999   :  From
          :         :         :         :         :         :         :  1998
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          :     1,000 Head      ---- Pounds ----     Million Pounds     Percent
          :
Jan-Mar   :  9,176     9,134     4,268     4,431     39,164   40,471      3.3
Apr-Jun   :  9,171               4,451               40,821
Jul-Sep   :  9,149               4,210               38,519
Oct-Dec   :  9,137               4,261               38,937
          :
Annual    :  9,158              17,192              157,441
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/  May not add due to rounding.
2/  Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh.
3/  Excludes milk sucked by calves.
 
 
 
        Milk Cows and Production:  By Month, 20 Selected States, 1998-99
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          :   Milk Cows 1/    :  Milk Per Cow 2/  :     Milk Production 2/
          :---------------------------------------------------------------------
   Month  :         :         :         :         :         :         : Change
          :  1998   :  1999   :  1998   :  1999   :  1998   :  1999   :  From
          :         :         :         :         :         :         :  1998
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          :     1,000 Head      ---- Pounds ----     Million Pounds     Percent
          :
Jan       :  7,728     7,704     1,466     1,521     11,327   11,720      3.5
Feb       :  7,716     7,702     1,347     1,403     10,394   10,809      4.0
Mar       :  7,709     7,704     1,515     1,577     11,678   12,147      4.0
Apr       :  7,713               1,501               11,579
May       :  7,719               1,556               12,011
Jun       :  7,718               1,477               11,396
Jul       :  7,709               1,468               11,314
Aug       :  7,708               1,443               11,124
Sep       :  7,701               1,386               10,672
Oct       :  7,695               1,446               11,125
Nov       :  7,697               1,407               10,829
Dec       :  7,708               1,489               11,481
          :
Annual    :  7,710              17,501              134,930
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/  Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh.
2/  Excludes milk sucked by calves.
 
 
 
               Estimated Milk Production:  United States, 1998-99
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
            :             By Month             :           Cumulative
            :-------------------------------------------------------------------
    Month   :         :           :   Change   :         :         :   Change
            :  1998   :   1999    :    From    :  1998   :  1999   :    From
            :         :           :    1998    :         :         :    1998
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
            :   Million Pounds       Percent      Million Pounds      Percent
            :
Jan         : 13,282     13,679        3.0        13,282   13,679       3.0
Feb         : 12,188     12,616        3.5        25,470   26,295       3.2
Mar         : 13,694     14,176        3.5        39,164   40,471       3.3
Apr         : 13,510                              52,674
May         : 14,015                              66,689
Jun         : 13,296                              79,985
Jul         : 13,162                              93,147
Aug         : 12,942                             106,089
Sep         : 12,415                             118,504
Oct         : 12,956                             131,460
Nov         : 12,611                             144,071
Dec         : 13,370                             157,441
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 
 
 
 
               Milk Cows and Production:  By State, March 1998-99
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          :   Milk Cows 1/    :  Milk Per Cow 2/  :     Milk Production 2/
          :---------------------------------------------------------------------
   Month  :         :         :         :         :         :         : Change
          :  1998   :  1999   :  1998   :  1999   :  1998   :  1999   :  From
          :         :         :         :         :         :         :  1998
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          :     1,000 Head       ---- Pounds ---     Million Pounds     Percent
          :
AZ        :    130       132     1,885     2,135       245       282     15.1
CA        :  1,408     1,452     1,665     1,785     2,344     2,592     10.6
FL        :    162       159     1,415     1,490       229       237      3.5
ID        :    283       307     1,660     1,650       470       507      7.9
IL        :    129       125     1,510     1,480       195       185     -5.1
IN        :    134       136     1,430     1,330       192       181     -5.7
IA        :    224       215     1,472     1,540       330       331      0.3
KY        :    141       134     1,105     1,110       156       149     -4.5
MI        :    297       297     1,530     1,580       454       469      3.3
MN        :    555       545     1,465     1,555       813       847      4.2
MO        :    174       162     1,240     1,320       216       214     -0.9
NM        :    216       225     1,705     1,755       368       395      7.3
NY        :    697       700     1,440     1,490     1,004     1,043      3.9
OH        :    265       260     1,460     1,460       387       380     -1.8
PA        :    624       614     1,535     1,565       958       961      0.3
TX        :    362       342     1,475     1,585       534       542      1.5
VT        :    161       162     1,430     1,470       230       238      3.5
VA        :    125       122     1,345     1,350       168       165     -1.8
WA        :    249       249     1,805     1,885       449       469      4.5
WI        :  1,373     1,366     1,410     1,435     1,936     1,960      1.2
          :
20-State  :
 Total    :  7,709     7,704     1,515     1,577    11,678    12,147      4.0
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/  Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh.
2/  Excludes milk sucked by calves.
 
 
 
 
            Milk Cows and Production:  By State, February 1998-99 1/
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          :   Milk Cows 2/    :  Milk per Cow 3/  :     Milk Production 3/
          :---------------------------------------------------------------------
   State  :         :         :         :         :         :         : Change
          :  1998   :  1999   :  1998   :  1999   :  1998   :  1999   :  From
          :         :         :         :         :         :         :  1998
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          :     1,000 Head       ---- Pounds ---     Million Pounds     Percent
          :
AZ        :    130       132     1,660     1,835       216       242     12.0
CA        :  1,405     1,448     1,480     1,550     2,079     2,244      7.9
FL        :    160       158     1,300     1,355       208       214      2.9
ID        :    283       306     1,490     1,490       422       456      8.1
IL        :    129       125     1,310     1,310       169       164     -3.0
IN        :    134       136     1,260     1,300       169       177      4.7
IA        :    224       215     1,320     1,380       296       297      0.3
KY        :    143       135       965       985       138       133     -3.6
MI        :    296       299     1,370     1,415       406       423      4.2
MN        :    555       545     1,320     1,390       733       758      3.4
MO        :    175       164     1,090     1,150       191       189     -1.0
NM        :    216       223     1,480     1,615       320       360     12.5
NY        :    698       702     1,280     1,320       893       927      3.8
OH        :    265       260     1,310     1,340       347       348      0.3
PA        :    625       615     1,365     1,375       853       846     -0.8
TX        :    365       341     1,290     1,430       471       488      3.6
VT        :    162       162     1,285     1,320       208       214      2.9
VA        :    125       122     1,175     1,205       147       147
WA        :    250       248     1,605     1,695       401       420      4.7
WI        :  1,376     1,366     1,255     1,290     1,727     1,762      2.0
          :
20-State  :
 Total    :  7,716     7,702     1,347     1,403    10,394    10,809      4.0
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/  1999 revised.
2/  Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh.
3/  Excludes milk sucked by calves.
 
 
 
 
             Milk Cows and Production:  By State and United States,
                        Revised October-December, 1997-98
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          :    Oct-Dec Milk Cows 1/     : Oct-Dec Milk Production 2/  : Change
   State  :-----------------------------------------------------------:  From
          :     1997     :     1998     :     1997     :     1998     :  1997
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          :   ----- 1,000 Head -----       ---- Million Pounds ----     Percent
          :
AL        :      29             27            100             92         -8.0
AK        :       0.9            0.8            3.80           3.51      -7.6
AZ        :     130            132            632            676          7.0
AR        :      51             46            150            154          2.7
CA        :   1,397          1,436          6,917          7,020          1.5
CO        :      83             83            395            421          6.6
CT        :      30             30            128            129          0.8
DE        :      10.0           11.0           36.8           37.3        1.4
FL        :     159            158            570            546         -4.2
GA        :      96             90            357            343         -3.9
HI        :       8.9            8.8           27.7           29.5        6.5
ID        :     279            299          1,336          1,473         10.3
IL        :     131            126            527            517         -1.9
IN        :     135            137            544            547          0.6
IA        :     226            224            915            972          6.2
KS        :      80             83            315            320          1.6
KY        :     146            136            423            404         -4.5
LA        :      65             63            184            176         -4.3
ME        :      41             42            161            166          3.1
MD        :      86             86            331            320         -3.3
MA        :      26             25            105            106          1.0
MI        :     302            299          1,313          1,343          2.3
MN        :     560            545          2,192          2,291          4.5
MS        :      44             41            142            132         -7.0
MO        :     176            166            552            573          3.8
MT        :      18             18             70             73          4.3
NE        :      69             70            261            266          1.9
NV        :      26             25            122            115         -5.7
NH        :      20             20             80             79         -1.3
NJ        :      20             19             71             70         -1.4
NM        :     209            218          1,002          1,093          9.1
NY        :     699            702          2,794          2,879          3.0
NC        :      78             73            318            312         -1.9
ND        :      53             50            167            172          3.0
OH        :     266            262          1,062          1,062
OK        :      91             92            307            304         -1.0
OR        :      88             88            388            394          1.5
PA        :     625            620          2,633          2,623         -0.4
RI        :       2.0            2.0            7.6            7.8        2.6
SC        :      25             24             94             88         -6.4
SD        :     102            102            338            366          8.3
TN        :     110            101            380            357         -6.1
TX        :     371            341          1,350          1,345         -0.4
UT        :      89             93            366            381          4.1
VT        :     162            161            640            666          4.1
VA        :     125            123            466            449         -3.6
WA        :     251            247          1,276          1,326          3.9
WV        :      18             18             68             68
WI        :   1,385          1,368          5,394          5,630          4.4
WY        :       6.4            5.9           19.2           19.5        1.6
          :
US 3/     :   9,200          9,137         38,031         38,937          2.4
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/  Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh.
2/  Excludes milk sucked by calves.
3/  May not add due to rounding.
 
 
 
 
             Milk Cows and Production:  By State and United States,
                       Preliminary January-March, 1998-99
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          :    Jan-Mar Milk Cows 1/     : Jan-Mar Milk Production 2/  : Change
   State  :-----------------------------------------------------------:  From
          :     1998     :     1999     :     1998     :     1999     :  1998
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          :   ----- 1,000 Head -----       ---- Million Pounds ----     Percent
          :
AL        :      28             27            109            104          -4.6
AK        :       0.9            1.0            3.52           3.47       -1.4
AZ        :     130            132            695            776          11.7
AR        :      51             45            164            130         -20.7
CA        :   1,405          1,448          6,764          7,275           7.6
CO        :      83             82            407            420           3.2
CT        :      30             29            136            134          -1.5
DE        :      11.0           11.0           44.0           43.9        -0.2
FL        :     161            158            657            674           2.6
GA        :      95             89            403            396          -1.7
HI        :       9.0            8.8           31.5           29.9        -5.1
ID        :     283            306          1,356          1,468           8.3
IL        :     129            125            546            528          -3.3
IN        :     134            136            546            547           0.2
IA        :     224            217            950            961           1.2
KS        :      80             85            335            350           4.5
KY        :     143            135            444            423          -4.7
LA        :      64             62            216            208          -3.7
ME        :      40             42            165            177           7.3
MD        :      87             86            348            350           0.6
MA        :      26             25            109            105          -3.7
MI        :     297            299          1,301          1,357           4.3
MN        :     555            545          2,334          2,425           3.9
MS        :      43             39            169            160          -5.3
MO        :     175            164            609            608          -0.2
MT        :      18             18             72             74           2.8
NE        :      70             72            259            292          12.7
NV        :      25             25            113            118           4.4
NH        :      19             19             83             82          -1.2
NJ        :      19             18             75             70          -6.7
NM        :     216            223          1,014          1,138          12.2
NY        :     698            701          2,863          2,981           4.1
NC        :      77             73            332            317          -4.5
ND        :      53             50            179            176          -1.7
OH        :     265            260          1,113          1,102          -1.0
OK        :      92             92            322            325           0.9
OR        :      88             88            384            403           4.9
PA        :     625            615          2,745          2,717          -1.0
RI        :       2.1            2.0            8.3            7.9        -4.8
SC        :      25             24            105            104          -1.0
SD        :     102            102            341            367           7.6
TN        :     108            100            401            379          -5.5
TX        :     365            341          1,498          1,533           2.3
UT        :      88             91            361            379           5.0
VT        :     162            162            664            685           3.2
VA        :     125            122            477            470          -1.5
WA        :     250            248          1,286          1,350           5.0
WV        :      18             18             71             71
WI        :   1,376          1,367          5,537          5,658           2.2
WY        :       6.2            5.9           19.2           18.9        -1.6
          :
US 3/     :   9,176          9,134         39,164         40,471           3.3
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/  Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh.
2/  Excludes milk sucked by calves.
3/  May not add due to rounding.
 
 
 
 
                       Reliability Statement
 
Survey Procedures:  Primary data used to determine these estimates were
obtained from a sample of producers.  Individual States maintain a list of all
known milk producers and information on the size of their herd.  States use all
known sources of producers to ensure that their lists are as complete as
possible. Generally, all large producers and a sample of small producers are
included in the survey.  Questionnaires are mailed to producers near the end of
the month to obtain data for the first day of the month.  Additional reports
are obtained by telephone, as needed, to supplement the mail response.
 
 
Estimation Procedures:  State offices prepare these estimates using survey
indications, historic trends, and any available administrative data. Individual
State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board for
reasonableness.
 
 
Revision Policy:  Milk production, rate per cow, and number of cows are subject
to revision the following month for monthly States or the following quarter for
the quarterly States.  Normally, Federal Market Order sales are the main basis
for revisions. However, data for all orders are not available in time for this
revision.  Estimates are again subject to revisions in February each year based
on additional administrative data.  In the event that additional changes are
necessary, a third revision is possible in February the following year.
Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five-year Census of
Agriculture are available. No revisions are made after that date.
 
 
Reliability:  Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in the
sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results
are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and
mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these
errors cannot be measured directly.  They are minimized through rigid quality
controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all
reported data for consistency and reasonableness.
 
 
To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report,
the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items on the next page. The
"Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and
is computed using the differences between first and final estimates.  The "Root
Mean Square Error" for milk cow inventory estimates over the past 10 quarters
is 1.1 percent.  This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final
January-March estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 9.13
million head by more than 1.1 percent, or about 100,000 head.  Chances are 9
out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 2.0 percent, or about 183,000
head (the 90 percent confidence level).
 
 
 
 
                 Reliability of January-March Milk Estimates 1/
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             :       :                :   Difference Between    :   Quarters
             : Root  :      90%       :    First and Latest     :---------------
             : Mean  :   Confidence   :        Estimates        : First : First
     Item    :Square :     Level      :-------------------------: Above : Below
             : Error :                :Average:Smallest:Largest :Latest :Latest
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             :    Percent       ------- Million Pounds ------         Number
             :
Milk         :
  Production :  0.5     0.9     364      170      47      315       8       2
             :    Percent       --------- 1,000 Head --------         Number
             :
All Milk     :
  Cows       :  1.1     2.0     183       89       2      187       8       2
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/  Based on records for the past 10 January-March quarters.
 
 
 
 
The next "Milk Production" report will be released at 3 p.m. ET on May 17, 1999.
 
 
 
 
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