HDR1012000160031114961500MILK PRODUCTION                                        
Milk                                                                            
Production                                                                      
                                                                                
National                                                                        
Agricultural                                                                    
Statistics                                                                      
Service                                                                         
                                                                                
USDA                                                                            
Washington, D.C.                                                                
                                                                                
Released November 14, 1996, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service     
(NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture.  For     
information on "Milk Production" call Kevin Hintzman at (202) 720-4448, office  
hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET.  For assistance with general agricultural      
statistics, information about NASS, its products or services, contact the       
Agricultural Statistics Hotline at 1-800-727-9540 or E-mail:                    
NASS@NASS.USDA.GOV.  The "Milk Production" U.S. Summary is available on         
AutoFax, (202) 720-2000, report 5200.  See back page.                           
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
               October Milk Production Down 1 Percent                           
                                                                                
                                                                                
Milk production in the 22 major States during October totaled 10.9 billion      
pounds, 1 percent below production in these same States in October 1995.        
September revised production, at 10.6 billion pounds was 1 percent less than    
September 1995. On a daily basis, total milk production has been below 1995     
levels all year.                                                                
                                                                                
Production per cow in the 22 major States averaged 1,373 pounds for October,    
9 pounds above October 1995.                                                    
                                                                                
The number of cows on farms in the 22 major States was 7.95 million head,       
98,000 head less than October 1995 and 5,000 head less than September 1996.     
This is the fifteenth consecutive month of decline.                             
                                                                                
During the July-September period, the 22 major States produced 32.8 billion     
pounds of milk, 86.7 percent of the U.S. production.  If the remaining 28       
States not surveyed monthly followed the same pattern as the 22 States, the     
U.S. production would be 12.6 billion pounds for October 1996.                  
                                                                                
                               ****                                             
                                                                                
                               Note:                                            
                                                                                
NASS is planning to change the States that are included in the monthly milk     
production estimating program starting January 1997.  The last major change was 
in 1986.  We plan to drop Maryland, North Carolina, and Tennessee while adding  
Arizona.  On page 5 is a table showing Arizona monthly data, starting in 1994.  
                                                                                
Historic monthly estimates have been created for Arizona back to 1994.          
Therefore, data users will have a comparable data set for 1994, 1995, and 1996  
for the new 20 State monthly total.  The 20 States in the monthly estimating    
program account for 85 percent of the U.S. milk production.                     
                                                                                
                     Value of Grain Correction                                  
                                                                                
The value of grain fed to cows on October 1, 1996, averaged $9.51 per           
hundredweight, versus the $9.53 that was published in the October release.      
Corrections are on page 6.                                                      
                                                                                
                                                                                
         Milk Cows and Production:  By Quarter, United States,  1995-96         
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
        :    Milk Cows  1/   :  Milk per Cow  2/ :     Milk Production 2/       
        :---------------------------------------------------------------------- 
Quarter :          :         :         :         :         :         : 1996 as  
        :  1995    :  1996   :  1995   :  1996   :  1995   :  1996   :   % of   
        :          :         :         :         :         :         :   1995   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
        :    ---- 1,000 ----         Pounds          Million Pounds    Percent  
        :                                                                       
Jan-Mar :    9,470     9,402     4,112     4,160    38,941    39,111       100  
Apr-Jun :    9,477     9,375     4,276     4,236    40,520    39,706        98  
Jul-Sep :    9,465     9,343     4,049     4,043    38,325    37,778        99  
Oct-Dec :    9,432               4,014              37,857                      
        :                                                                       
Annual  :    9,461              16,451             155,644                      
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
1/  Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh.                          
2/  Excludes milk sucked by calves.                                             
                                                                                
                                                                                
         Milk Cows and Production:  By Month, 22 Selected States, 1995-96       
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
        :    Milk Cows  1/   :  Milk per Cow  2/ :     Milk Production 2/       
        :---------------------------------------------------------------------- 
 Month  :          :         :         :         :         :         : 1996 as  
        :  1995    :  1996   :  1995   :  1996   :  1995   :  1996   :   % of   
        :          :         :         :         :         :         :   1995   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
        :    ---- 1,000 ----         Pounds         Million Pounds     Percent  
        :                                                                       
Jan     :    8,046     8,026     1,404     1,406    11,296    11,285       100  
Feb     :    8,050     8,010     1,295     1,338    10,423    10,719       103  
Mar     :    8,061     7,998     1,453     1,459    11,709    11,671       100  
Apr     :    8,058     7,988     1,427     1,434    11,501    11,451       100  
May     :    8,056     7,987     1,484     1,470    11,959    11,740        98  
Jun     :    8,066     7,984     1,421     1,387    11,465    11,075        97  
Jul     :    8,062     7,977     1,414     1,397    11,397    11,142        98  
Aug     :    8,062     7,969     1,375     1,377    11,086    10,970        99  
Sep     :    8,061     7,957     1,331     1,337    10,729    10,640        99  
Oct     :    8,050     7,952     1,364     1,373    10,978    10,915        99  
Nov     :    8,043               1,320              10,616                      
Dec     :    8,034               1,380              11,088                      
        :                                                                       
Annual  :    8,054              16,668             134,247                      
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
1/  Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh.                          
2/  Excludes milk sucked by calves.                                             
                                                                                
              Milk Cows and Production:  By State,  October 1995-96             
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
        :    Milk Cows  1/   :  Milk per Cow  2/ :     Milk Production 2/       
        :---------------------------------------------------------------------- 
 State  :          :         :         :         :         :         : 1996 as  
        :   1995   :   1996  :  1995   :  1996   :  1995   :  1996   :   % of   
        :          :         :         :         :         :         :   1995   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
        :    ---- 1,000 ----         Pounds          Million Pounds    Percent  
        :                                                                       
CA      :    1,257     1,265     1,690     1,725     2,124     2,182       103  
FL      :      157       156     1,050     1,160       165       181       110  
ID      :      240       264     1,530     1,560       367       412       112  
IL      :      162       157     1,250     1,310       203       206       101  
IN      :      143       140     1,280     1,280       183       179        98  
IA      :      250       250     1,330     1,280       333       320        96  
KY      :      161       151     1,000       980       161       148        92  
MD      :       91        85     1,185     1,250       108       106        98  
MI      :      326       326     1,400     1,405       456       458       100  
MN      :      600       595     1,260     1,260       756       750        99  
MO      :      187       177     1,105     1,150       207       204        99  
NM      :      196       195     1,510     1,555       296       303       102  
NY      :      702       702     1,365     1,330       958       934        97  
NC      :       86        79     1,280     1,320       110       104        95  
OH      :      287       285     1,300     1,260       373       359        96  
PA      :      647       645     1,375     1,345       890       868        98  
TN      :      123       109     1,120     1,110       138       121        88  
TX      :      401       395     1,200     1,170       481       462        96  
VT      :      158       155     1,340     1,350       212       209        99  
VA      :      128       126     1,240     1,190       159       150        94  
WA      :      266       265     1,645     1,670       438       443       101  
WI      :    1,482     1,430     1,255     1,270     1,860     1,816        98  
        :                                                                       
22 State:                                                                       
 Total  :    8,050     7,952     1,364     1,373    10,978    10,915        99  
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
1/  Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh.                          
2/  Excludes milk sucked by calves.                                             
                                                                                
                                                                                
            Milk Cows and Production:  By State,  September 1995-96 1/          
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
        :    Milk Cows  2/   :  Milk per Cow  3/ :     Milk Production 3/       
        :---------------------------------------------------------------------- 
 State  :          :         :         :         :         :         : 1996 as  
        :   1995   :  1996   :  1995   :   1996  :  1995   :  1996   :   % of   
        :          :         :         :         :         :         :   1995   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
        :    ---- 1,000 ----         Pounds          Million Pounds    Percent  
        :                                                                       
CA      :    1,256     1,264     1,645     1,685     2,066     2,130       103  
FL      :      162       155       995     1,070       161       166       103  
ID      :      238       262     1,500     1,550       357       406       114  
IL      :      162       158     1,260     1,290       204       204       100  
IN      :      143       140     1,250     1,250       179       175        98  
IA      :      250       250     1,310     1,250       328       313        95  
KY      :      161       151       980       955       158       144        91  
MD      :       92        85     1,110     1,190       102       101        99  
MI      :      326       326     1,375     1,365       448       445        99  
MN      :      600       600     1,220     1,220       732       732       100  
MO      :      187       175     1,090     1,055       204       185        91  
NM      :      197       195     1,470     1,505       290       293       101  
NY      :      702       703     1,350     1,310       948       921        97  
NC      :       86        79     1,220     1,240       105        98        93  
OH      :      288       285     1,260     1,230       363       351        97  
PA      :      646       642     1,330     1,305       859       838        98  
TN      :      124       111     1,070     1,090       133       121        91  
TX      :      401       395     1,095     1,090       439       431        98  
VT      :      158       155     1,315     1,325       208       205        99  
VA      :      129       126     1,200     1,135       155       143        92  
WA      :      268       265     1,620     1,650       434       437       101  
WI      :    1,485     1,435     1,250     1,255     1,856     1,801        97  
        :                                                                       
22 State:                                                                       
 Total  :    8,061     7,957     1,331     1,337    10,729    10,640        99  
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
1/  1996 revised.  2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh.        
3/  Excludes milk sucked by calves.                                             
                                                                                
                                                                                
                  Arizona Monthly Milk Production Estimates, 1994-96            
                                                                                
                                                                                
            Year/Month      Milk Cows     Milk per Cow    Milk Production       
                                                                                
                                                                                
               1994           (000)          Pounds        Million Pounds       
                                                                                
        Jan             107            1,710             183                    
        Feb             111            1,570             174                    
        Mar             116            1,725             200                    
        Apr             119            1,630             194                    
        May             121            1,635             198                    
        Jun             121            1,465             177                    
        Jul             123            1,335             164                    
        Aug             118            1,295             153                    
        Sep             114            1,360             155                    
        Oct             114            1,525             174                    
        Nov             114            1,535             175                    
        Dec             115            1,625             187                    
        Annual          116           18,397           2,134                    
                                                                                
             1995                                                               
                                                                                
        Jan             116            1,655             192                    
        Feb             113            1,635             185                    
        Mar             111            1,920             213                    
        Apr             114            1,790             204                    
        May             115            1,780             205                    
        Jun             117            1,605             188                    
        Jul             117            1,485             174                    
        Aug             115            1,365             157                    
        Sep             111            1,415             157                    
        Oct             111            1,615             179                    
        Nov             112            1,600             179                    
        Dec             116            1,700             197                    
        Annual          114           19,561           2,230                    
                                                                                
             1996                                                               
                                                                                
        Jan             118            1,755             207                    
        Feb             118            1,730             204                    
        Mar             118            1,930             228                    
        Apr             118            1,875             221                    
        May             119            1,850             220                    
        Jun             121            1,630             197                    
        Jul             122            1,400             171                    
        Aug             120            1,415             170                    
        Sep             116            1,500             174                    
                                                                                
            Grain and Other Concentrates:  Quantity Fed Daily and Value         
                                                                                
                By State and United States, October 1, 1995-96                  
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
            :Grain and Other Concentrates : Value per 100 Pounds of Concentrate 
   State    :  Fed Daily per Milk Cow     :   Ration Fed to Milk Cows           
            :------------------------------------------------------------------ 
            :     1995     :    1996      :      1995      :       1996         
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
            :        ----- Pounds -----               -------- Dollars -------- 
            :                                                                   
    AL      :       18.6            16.7              8.40               10.50  
    AK      :       19.5            19.5             13.80               14.50  
    AZ      :       21.6            21.0              7.80                8.70  
    AR      :       17.5            17.7              8.20                9.95* 
    CA      :       20.5            20.0              8.00                9.00  
    CO      :       22.5            20.5              7.20                9.50  
    CT      :       17.0            17.5              9.10               11.55  
    DE      :       16.3            13.2              8.80                9.70  
    FL      :       24.0            25.0              7.80                8.40  
    GA      :       22.9            22.0              7.90                9.90  
    ID      :       21.0            21.5              7.30                8.30  
    IL      :       17.1            16.1              7.90                9.15  
    IN      :       17.0            16.6              7.60               10.35  
    IA      :       16.4            17.2              6.50                9.90  
    KS      :       19.0            18.0              7.50                9.25* 
    KY      :       16.4            16.1              8.65               10.50  
    LA      :       19.0            18.5              8.35               10.30* 
    ME      :       17.0            15.5              8.90               11.60  
    MD      :       14.4            13.0              8.35               10.20  
    MA      :       15.5            16.0              8.95               11.65  
    MI      :       18.5            18.5              7.30                8.75  
    MN      :       17.3            15.7              7.80                9.00  
    MS      :       17.4            17.6              8.20                9.80  
    MO      :       18.5            17.0              8.00               10.00  
    MT      :       16.2            16.5              7.25                8.40  
    NE      :       16.5            16.2              7.30                8.30  
    NV      :       21.0            21.0              8.20               10.50  
    NH      :       16.0            17.0              8.80               11.20  
    NJ      :       14.9            14.5              8.60               12.45* 
    NM      :       26.0            26.0              6.60                7.80  
    NY      :       15.3            14.8              9.00               11.70  
    NC      :       17.5            17.7              8.95               10.90  
    ND      :       16.5            15.0              6.30                7.10  
    OH      :       16.3            17.5              8.10               10.10  
    OK      :       18.0            18.8              8.40                9.50* 
    OR      :       20.0            18.6              9.30               10.50  
    PA      :       16.0            16.2              9.80               11.00  
    RI      :       16.0            15.0              9.05               11.00  
    SC      :       20.0            22.0              8.00                9.65  
    SD      :       17.0            16.5              6.75                8.20  
    TN      :       16.0            17.0              9.00               11.10  
    TX      :       22.2            20.1              7.90                9.40  
    UT      :       16.9            16.4              7.70                9.20  
    VT      :       16.0            15.0              8.90               11.40  
    VA      :       16.0            14.5              8.90               10.10  
    WA      :       20.0            20.0              8.20                9.65  
    WV      :       14.0            14.0              9.05               10.70* 
    WI      :       17.1            16.0              7.20                8.70  
    WY      :       13.0            13.4              6.50                7.80  
           :                                                                    
    US      :       18.4            18.0              7.97                9.51* 
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
* Correction                                                                    
                                                                                
                                                                                
                         Reliability Statement                                  
                                                                                
Survey Procedures:  Primary data used to determine these estimates were         
                    obtained from a sample of producers.  Individual States     
maintain a list of all known milk producers and information on the size of      
their herd.  States use all known sources of producers to ensure that their     
lists are as complete as possible. Generally, all large producers and a sample  
of small producers are included in the survey.  Questionnaires are mailed to    
producers near the end of the month to obtain data for the first day of the     
month.  Additional reports are obtained by telephone, as needed, to supplement  
he mail response.                                                               
                                                                                
                                                                                
Estimation Procedures:  State offices prepare these estimates using survey      
                        indications, historic trends, and any available         
administrative data. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the             
Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness.                               
                                                                                
                                                                                
Revision Policy:  Milk production, rate per cow, and number of cows are         
                  subject to revision the following month for monthly States or 
the following quarter for the quarterly States.  Normally, Federal Market Order 
sales are the main basis for revisions. However, data for all orders are not    
available in time for this revision.  Estimates are again subject to revisions  
in February each year based on additional administrative data.  In the event    
that additional changes are necessary, a third revision is possible in February 
the following year.  Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five-year 
Census of Agriculture, conducted by the Department of Commerce, are available.  
No revisions are made after that date.                                          
                                                                                
                                                                                
Reliability:  Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in the   
              sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability.     
Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions,       
duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data.    
The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly.  They are minimized    
through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a     
careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness.         
                                                                                
To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report,  
the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the table below.    
The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance 
and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates.  The   
"Root Mean Square Error" for milk cow inventory estimates over the past 10      
quarters is 1.3 percent.  This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final 
July-September estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 9.35 
million head by more than 1.3 percent, or about 121,000 head.  Chances are 9    
out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 2.4 percent, or about 224,000     
head (the 90 percent confidence level).                                         
                                                                                
                Reliability of July-September Milk Estimates 1/                 
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
             :        :              :    Difference Between    :               
             :        :              :      First and Final     :    Number of  
             :  Root  :     90%      :         Estimates  1/    :    Quarters   
    Item     :  Mean  :  Confidence  :----------------------------------------- 
             : Square :    Level     :        :         :       : First : First 
             :  Error :              : Average: Smallest:Largest: Above : Below 
             :        :              :        :         :       : Final : Final 
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
             :   - Percent -     ---------- Mil Lbs. ----------     - Number -  
             :                                                                  
Milk         :   0.9     1.6     605     286      157      538     10       0   
  Production :                                                                  
             :                  --------- 1,000 Head ----------                 
                                                                                
             :                                                                  
All Milk     :   1.3     2.4     224     117       15      179     10       0   
  Cows       :                                                                  
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
1/  Based on records for the past 10 July-September quarters.                   
The next "Milk Production" report will be released at 3 P.M. ET on              
December 13, 1996.                                                              
                                                                                
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