Pot 1-2  (1-99)
 
 
 
Potato
Stocks
 
National
Agricultural
Statistics
Service
 
 
 
 
USDA
Washington, D.C.
 
 
Released January 14, 1999, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service
(NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture.  For
information on "Potato Stocks" call Arvin Budge at (202) 720-4285, office hours
7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET.
 
 
               January Potato Stocks Down Slightly
 
The 15 major potato States held 246 million cwt of potatoes on January 1, 1999,
down slightly from last year and 6 percent below 1997.  Storage accounted for
58 percent of 1998 fall production, down 2 percent from a year ago.  This
year's storage held more russets but fewer long whites than a year earlier.
Disappearance, at 179 million cwt, is up 7 percent from last year including a 9
percent gain in processing.
 
This report contains revised stocks and disposition estimates based on the
1992-97 final production estimates published on December 18, 1998.  These
production data are available in the Field Crops - Final Estimates 1992-97,
Statistical Bulletin 947.
 
 
 
 
         Fall Potatoes:  Production and Stocks, 15 Major States, 1989-98
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
   Crop  :          :         :         :         :         :         :
   Year  :Production:  Dec 1  :  Jan 1  :  Feb 1  :  Mar 1  :  Apr 1  :  May 1
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
         :                              1,000 Cwt
         :
1989     : 316,097    202,050   173,550   144,290   116,600    84,320    50,675
1990     : 344,200    225,500   194,460   162,850   134,470   101,150    63,040
1991     : 363,541    242,070   211,005   178,515   145,820   108,865    69,110
1992     : 368,516    246,820   215,990   184,560   152,795   115,785    75,040
1993     : 376,954    249,410   217,300   185,490   153,435   115,170    72,860
1994     : 410,839    273,290   238,560   202,470   169,570   129,825    87,600
1995     : 394,785    256,710   223,550   189,360   156,020   115,855    75,870
1996     : 443,704    295,100   261,320   226,080   189,210   147,585   103,210
1997     : 413,513    278,830   246,550   212,562   175,870   134,190    92,840
1998     : 424,897    282,300   246,220
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 
 
 
 
          Potatoes:  Quantity Used for Processing, 8 States, 1995-98 1/
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
     State and     :        :        :        :       :       :       :
     Crop Year     : Dec 1  : Jan 1  : Feb 1  : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 : Season
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                   :                         1,000 Cwt
                   :
ID & OR-Malheur Co :
  1995             : 27,310   35,040   43,260   51,530  59,060  66,690   89,250
  1996             : 31,060   38,210   45,420   54,640  62,570  70,720   96,970
  1997             : 26,880   33,950   41,050   49,470  57,620  65,750   91,450
  1998             : 27,510   34,700
                   :
ME 2/              :
  1995             :  1,455    1,850    2,430    2,850   3,435   3,965    5,725
  1996             :  1,790    2,115    2,820    3,280   3,820   4,420    6,495
  1997             :  1,250    1,720    2,265    2,735   3,355   3,900    5,870
  1998             :  1,180    1,710
                   :
WA & OR - Other    :
  1995             : 30,000   35,170   39,460   45,280  51,730  57,360   70,250
  1996             : 31,670   36,660   41,700   48,740  55,570  62,320   80,970
  1997             : 28,580   33,990   38,690   46,400  53,720  59,780   76,930
  1998             : 33,460   38,895
                   :
Oth Sts 3/         :
  1995             : 12,650   15,630   18,815   21,985  25,510  28,610   33,580
  1996             : 13,720   17,000   20,645   24,085  27,650  30,830   43,100
  1997             : 11,645   13,960   17,115   19,905  23,515  26,365   37,842
  1998             : 11,020   15,985
                   :
Total              :
  1995             : 71,415   87,690  103,965  121,645 139,735 156,625  198,805
  1996             : 78,240   93,985  110,585  130,745 149,610 168,290  227,535
  1997             : 68,355   83,620   99,120  118,510 138,210 155,795  212,092
  1998             : 73,170   91,290
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/  Total quantity received and used for processing regardless of the State in
    which the potatoes were produced.  Amount excludes quantities used for
    potato chips in ME, MI, MN, ND, and WI.
2/  Includes Maine grown potatoes only.
3/  MI, MN, ND, and WI.
 
 
 
 
           Fall Potatoes:  Production and Stocks on January 1, 1998-99
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
            :        Crop of 1997        :             Crop of 1998
            :-------------------------------------------------------------------
    State   :         : Stocks  :   %    :         : Stocks  : Stocks  : Jan %
            :  Prod   : Jan 1,  :   of   :  Prod   : Dec 1,  : Jan 1,  :   of
            :         :  1998   :  Prod  :         :  1998   :  1999   :  Prod
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
            : --- 1,000 Cwt ---  Percent   -------- 1,000 Cwt --------  Percent
            :
CA          :   4,200     2,300     55       3,708     2,900     2,400     65
CO          :  24,993    17,000     68      25,360    18,800    16,300     64
ID          : 140,314    91,500     65     139,650   101,000    90,500     65
ME          :  19,080    14,100     74      18,060    14,100    12,500     69
MI          :  14,250     7,000     49      14,725     8,800     7,200     49
MN          :  20,440    12,000     59      21,170    13,500    12,000     57
MT          :   3,328     3,080     93       3,180     3,050     2,980     94
NE          :   7,761     4,300     55       8,175     5,480     4,830     59
NY          :   7,150     2,500     35       7,290     3,800     2,500     34
ND          :  22,000    13,800     63      28,670    20,500    16,000     56
OH          :   1,170       170     15       1,200       270       110      9
OR          :  27,319    19,000     70      26,229    20,000    17,500     67
PA          :   3,173     1,500     47       3,360     1,400     1,100     33
WA          :  88,160    41,500     47      93,225    49,000    43,500     47
WI          :  30,175    16,800     56      30,895    19,700    16,800     54
            :
15 States   : 413,513   246,550     60     424,897   282,300   246,220     58
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 
 
 
 
          Fall Potatoes:  Stocks by Type as Percent of Total Stocks,
                      11 Major States, January 1, 1998-99
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          :                           Potato Types
          :-------------------------------------------------------------------
          :      Reds      :  Round Whites  :  Long Whites   :    Russets
   State  :-------------------------------------------------------------------
          : Jan : Dec :Jan : Jan : Dec :Jan : Jan : Dec :Jan : Jan : Dec :Jan
          :1998 :1998 :1999:1998 :1998 :1999:1998 :1998 :1999:1998 :1998 :1999
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          :                              Percent
          :
CO        :  5     4     4    2     6     6                    93    90    90
ID        :                                    8     4    4    92    96    96
ME        :  4     4     4   49    48    46    8    11    9    39    37    41
MI        :  1     1     1   74    81    84                    25    18    15
MN        : 11    13    12   10     7     5    3     3    3    76    77    80
NY        :  5     5     5   93    93    93                     2     2     2
ND        : 12    14    12   14    23    22    6     6    5    68    57    61
OR        :  1     1     1    2     2     2    1     4    4    96    93    93
PA        :  3     2     2   97    98    98
WA        :  1     1     1          1          4     6    4    95    92    95
WI        :  2     4     2   18    24    20                    80    72    78
          :
11 St Avg :  2     3     2   10    11    10    5     4    4    83    82    84
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 
 
 
 
       Fall Potatoes:  Production, January 1 Stocks, and Farm Disposition,
                 15 States and Fall Season,  1995-98 Crop Years
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
       :     :          :          :          :        Farm Disposition
       :     :          :          :  Total   :---------------------------------
 State :Crop :          :  Stocks  :   Used   :     Where Grown      :
       :Year :Production:  Jan 1   :   For    :----------------------:
       :     :          :          :   Seed   :Seed, Feed,:Shrinkage :   Sold
       :     :          :          :          : Home Use  : and Loss :
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
       :     :                            1,000 Cwt
       :     :
CA     :     :
       : 1995:    5,330      3,500       242          10         460      4,860
       : 1996:    4,600      3,000       200          23         472      4,105
       : 1997:    4,200      2,300       206          20         340      3,840
       : 1998:    3,708      2,400
CO     :     :
       : 1995:   23,808     16,100     1,950       1,285       2,048     20,475
       : 1996:   29,175     20,700     1,925       1,485       3,975     23,715
       : 1997:   24,993     17,000     1,895       1,340       2,773     20,880
       : 1998:   25,360     16,300
ID     :     :
       : 1995:  132,657     85,000     8,700       1,785       8,920    121,952
       : 1996:  142,800     92,000     8,600       1,500      10,100    131,200
       : 1997:  140,314     91,500     8,700       1,130       9,258    129,926
       : 1998:  139,650     90,500
ME     :     :
       : 1995:   17,160     12,400     1,716         420       1,025     15,715
       : 1996:   21,175     15,300     1,584         395       1,800     18,980
       : 1997:   19,080     14,100     1,430         275       1,760     17,045
       : 1998:   18,060     12,500
MI     :     :
       : 1995:   16,350      8,300       962         168         690     15,492
       : 1996:   13,800      6,600       768         300       1,300     12,200
       : 1997:   14,250      7,000       864         200       1,300     12,750
       : 1998:   14,725      7,200
MN     :     :
       : 1995:   20,790     11,700     1,573         346       1,757     18,687
       : 1996:   24,600     14,900     1,348         445       4,158     19,997
       : 1997:   20,440     12,000     1,640         450       1,717     18,273
       : 1998:   21,170     12,000
MT     :     :
       : 1995:    2,940      2,700       239         128         147      2,665
       : 1996:    3,213      2,950       239         137         221      2,855
       : 1997:    3,328      3,080       244         152         208      2,968
       : 1998:    3,180      2,980
NE     :     :
       : 1995:    3,680      2,300       292         187         284      3,209
       : 1996:    4,402      2,800       451         169         439      3,794
       : 1997:    7,761      4,300       462         203         380      7,178
       : 1998:    8,175      4,830
NY     :     :
       : 1995:    7,425      2,500       594         155         290      6,980
       : 1996:    7,420      2,400       583         127         341      6,952
       : 1997:    7,150      2,500       607         139         315      6,696
       : 1998:    7,290      2,500
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                     --continued
 
 
 
 
       Fall Potatoes:  Production, January 1 Stocks, and Farm Disposition,
                 15 States and Fall Season,  1995-98 (continued)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
       :     :          :          :          :        Farm Disposition
       :     :          :          :  Total   :---------------------------------
 State :Crop :          :  Stocks  :   Used   :     Where Grown      :
       :Year :Production:  Jan 1   :   For    :----------------------:
       :     :          :          :   Seed   :Seed, Feed,:Shrinkage :   Sold
       :     :          :          : Home Use : and Loss  :          :
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
       :     :                            1,000 Cwt
       :     :
ND     :     :
       : 1995:   25,410     14,000      2,211        280       2,800     22,330
       : 1996:   28,820     18,000      2,188        360       5,270     23,190
       : 1997:   22,000     13,800      2,142        355       2,266     19,379
       : 1998:   28,670     16,000
OH     :     :
       : 1995:    1,404        150        107          4          10      1,390
       : 1996:    1,275        170        109          5          35      1,235
       : 1997:    1,170        170        105          8          37      1,125
       : 1998:    1,200        110
OR     :     :
       : 1995:   24,788     14,100      1,475        148       1,450     23,190
       : 1996:   30,124     21,500      1,345        305       2,560     27,259
       : 1997:   27,319     19,000      1,405        195       1,555     25,569
       : 1998:   26,229     17,500
PA     :     :
       : 1995:    4,080      1,900        314         20         102      3,958
       : 1996:    4,160      1,800        266         81         320      3,759
       : 1997:    3,173      1,500        276         78         176      2,919
       : 1998:    3,360      1,100
WA     :     :
       : 1995:   80,850     35,000      3,912        300       6,400     74,150
       : 1996:   94,990     42,000      3,648        300       6,800     87,890
       : 1997:   88,160     41,500      3,840        300       6,400     81,460
       : 1998:   93,225     43,500
WI     :     :
       : 1995:   28,113     13,900      1,806        298       1,350     26,465
       : 1996:   33,150     17,200      1,710        320       1,425     31,405
       : 1997:   30,175     16,800      1,764        275       1,448     28,452
       : 1998:   30,895     16,800
15 Sts :     :
       : 1995:  394,785    223,550     26,093      5,534      27,733    361,518
       : 1996:  443,704    261,320     24,964      5,952      39,216    398,536
       : 1997:  413,513    246,550     25,580      5,120      29,933    378,460
       : 1998:  424,897    246,220
23 Fall:     :
       : 1995:  404,852                26,813      5,569      28,604    370,679
       : 1996:  454,388                25,608      6,054      40,087    408,247
       : 1997:  423,190                26,224      5,260      30,841    387,089
       : 1998:  434,368
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 
 
 
 
                Fall Potatoes:  Farm Marketings, Selected States,
                             1995-97 Marketing Years
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 State : Crop  :Jul :Aug :Sep :Oct :Nov :Dec :Jan :Feb :Mar :Apr :May :Jun :Jul
       : Year  :    :    :    :    :    :    :    :    :    :    :    :    :
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
       :       :                            Percent
       :       :
CO     :       :
       :  1995 :             4    8   10   10   11   10   10   12   10    9    6
       :  1996 :             4    7    9    9   10    9   10   11   10   11   10
       :  1997 :        1    4    8    9   11   10    8   11   11   10   10    7
ID     :       :
       :  1995 :        4   16   17    6    7    6    6    9    8    8    7    6
       :  1996 :        6   14   18    7    5    6    6    9    8    8    6    7
       :  1997 :        6   15   12    8    8    8    6    7    7    9    7    7
ME     :       :
       :  1995 :        2    5    7    9    9   11   11   17   18    7    4
       :  1996 :        1    8    7    7    8   10    9   14   16    9   11
       :  1997 :        1    6    7    8    8   10    9   15   17   10    9
MI     :       :
       :  1995 :        5   11   15   13   13   11    6    9   11    6
       :  1996 :  1     9   10   11   11    9   12   11   10    9    5    2
       :  1997 :  3     9   10    8   11   11   11   12   11    8    6
MN     :       :
       :  1995 :        2   30   26    6    4    5    5    6    8    6    2
       :  1996 :        6   22   19   11    5    5    7    8    8    5    4
       :  1997 :        5   22   25   11    7    5    6    7    7    5
NY     :       :
       :  1995 :        6   15   15   17   16   12    8    6    4    1
       :  1996 :        7   17   17   14   14   10    8    7    4    2
       :  1997 :        8   15   15   16   15   13    9    5    3    1
ND     :       :
       :  1995 :        3   14   16    9   10    9    9    8    9   11    2
       :  1996 :        4   12   22    8    7    7    8   10    7    6    7    2
       :  1997 :        1   12   16   13    8   12    9    9    8    6    5    1
OR     :       :
       :  1995 :  1    12   16   25    7    6    6    5    5    7    7    1    2
       :  1996 :  1    14   16   26    7    5    5    5    4    6    5    5    1
       :  1997 :  1     9   14   30    8    6    5    6    6    5    6    3    1
PA     :       :
       :  1995 :       18   18   18   13   13    9    5    3    2    1
       :  1996 :  1    12   15   13   11    9   10    8    9    6    4    2
       :  1997 :  1    13   13   12   12   12   10    8    7    8    3    1
WA     :       :
       :  1995 :       16   13   32    7    3    4    4    7    5    4    4    1
       :  1996 :       17   11   31    8    3    4    4    5    5    5    5    2
       :  1997 :       12   14   31    7    4    4    4    6    6    6    5    1
WI     :       :
       :  1995 :  1     9   17   13   12    7   10    9   11    8    3
       :  1996 :  1     6   20   14   10    7    8   11    9    7    4    3
       :  1997 :  1     7   17   14   10    9    8   11   10    7    4    2
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 
 
 
               Potato Stocks Down Slightly
 
January 1, 1999 potato stocks totaled 246 million cwt, down slightly from a
year ago and 6 percent below two years ago.  Storage accounted for 58 percent
of fall production, down 2 percent from a year ago.   Stocks by type were 2
percent reds, 10 percent round whites, 4 percent long white, and 84 percent
russets, with more russets but fewer long whites than a year ago.
 
Disappearance from the start of harvest to January 1 totaled 179 million cwt
this season, up 7 percent from last year but 2 percent below the record high
two years ago.  December disappearance of 36.1 million cwt was record high for
the month.  Shrink and loss of 20.0 million cwt was up 12 percent from last
year but 4 percent below two years ago.
 
Processing of 1998 crop potatoes so far this season totaled 91.3 million cwt,
up 9 percent from the 1997 crop but 3 percent below the 1996 crop.  In
December, processors claimed 18.1 cwt of potatoes, up 19 percent from last year
and 15 percent above two years ago.
 
Eastern States stored 16.1 million cwt of potatoes on January 1, 1999, down 11
percent from a year ago and 17 percent below two years ago.  Maine's holdings
were down 11 percent and Pennsylvania's stocks were off 27 percent.  New York's
storage was equal to last year.
 
Central States accounted for 56.9 million cwt of potato stocks this January, 5
percent above 1998 but 5 percent below 1997.  North Dakota's stocks were up 16
percent and Nebraska was up 12 percent.  Stocks in Michigan increased 3 percent
from last year.  Minnesota and Wisconsin stocks were equal to a year ago.  Ohio
stocks were 35 percent below last year.
 
Western States held 173 million cwt of potatoes in storage on January 1, 1999,
down 1 percent from last year and 5 percent below 1997.  Idaho stocks were down
1 percent from a year ago, while Oregon was off 8 percent.  Colorado and
Montana were down 4 and 3 percent.  Washington was up 5 percent and California
gained 4 percent from a year ago.
 
 
            Reliability of January 1 Stocks Estimates
 
The "Root Mean Square Error" for the January 1 stocks estimate is 2.8 percent.
This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current estimate of 246 million
cwt will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 2.8 percent or
approximately 6.89 million cwt.  Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence
level) that the difference will not exceed 4.8 percent or approximately 11.8
million cwt.
 
The 10-year (1988-97) record of the differences between the January 1 stocks
estimates and the final estimates averaged 5.56 million cwt, ranging from 0.01
million to 14.3 million cwt.  During the 10-year period, the January 1 estimate
has been below the final estimate each of the 10 years.
 
 
 
 
           Fall Potato Stocks:  Preliminary and Final January Stocks,
                             United States, 1988-98
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
   Crop   :      Preliminary      :        % of         :         Final
   Year   :        Stocks         :        Final        :        Stocks
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          :       1,000 Cwt               Percent               1,000 Cwt
          :
1988      :        171,560                  96.5                 177,750
1989      :        173,400                  99.9                 173,550
1990      :        186,160                  95.7                 194,460
1991      :        210,935                 100.0                 211,005
1992      :        201,690                  93.4                 215,990
1993      :        209,270                  96.3                 217,300
1994      :        229,350                  96.1                 238,560
1995      :        218,970                  98.0                 223,550
1996      :        256,520                  98.2                 261,320
1997      :        240,850                  97.7                 246,550
1998      :        246,220
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 
 
 
 
NOTE:  Stocks are defined as the quantity (whether sold or not) remaining in
storage for all purposes and uses, including seed potatoes not yet moved and
shrinkage, waste, and other losses that occur after the date of each report.
Sales of fall potatoes for all purposes for the past 5 years averaged 90.8
percent of the total fall production.  Shrinkage, loss and home use account for
the remaining 9.2 percent.  Most seed for use the following year is on hand
December 1st, but remains as part of stocks until moved or planted.
 
 
 
 
            Potatoes:  Production, Sold, Not Sold, and Kept for Seed,
                             United States, 1993-98
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          :                     Fall Potatoes                     : Amount Used
          :-------------------------------------------------------:  for Seed
   Crop   :             :         :   Sold   :         : Not Sold : All Seasons
   Year   : Production  :  Sold   : as % of  :Not Sold : as % of  :  Following
          :             :         :   Prod   :         :   Prod   :    year
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          :   ---- 1,000 Cwt ----   Percent   1,000 Cwt  Percent     1,000 Cwt
          :
1993      :   387,885     353,052     91.0     34,833       9.0       29,076
1994      :   422,345     380,818     90.2     41,527       9.8       29,428
1995      :   404,852     370,679     91.6     34,173       8.4       30,561
1996      :   454,388     408,247     89.8     46,141      10.2       29,138
1997      :   423,190     387,089     91.5     36,101       8.5       29,975
1998      :   434,368
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 
 
 
The next "Potato Stocks" report will be released at 3 p.m. ET on February 12,
1999.
 
 
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