Lv Gn 2  (3-99)
 
 
 
Wool and
Mohair
 
National
Agricultural
Statistics
Service
 
 
 
 
USDA
Washington, D.C.
 
 
Released March 25, 1999, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS),
Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture.  For information
on "Wool and Mohair" call James Hand at 202-690-3236, office hours 7:00 a.m. to
4:30 p.m. ET.
 
 
 
               1998 Wool Production Down 8 Percent
 
Shorn wool production in the United States during 1998 was 49.2  million pounds,
down 8  percent from 1997.  Sheep and lambs shorn totaled 6.43 million head, a
decrease of  8 percent from 1997.  The average price paid for wool sold in 1998
was $0.60 per pound for a total value of $29.4 million dollars, down 35 percent
from $44.9 million dollars in 1997.
 
 
Mohair production in the four major producing states (Arizona, New Mexico,
Oklahoma, and Texas) during 1998 was 5.09 million pounds, down 26 percent from
1997.  Goats and kids clipped, at 705,000 head, was down 25 percent from 1997.
Average weight per clip was 7.2 pounds compared with 7.3 pounds a year earlier.
Value of mohair was $12.6 million dollars, down 18 percent from 1997.
 
 
 
           Wool:  Production, Price, and Value, United States, 1996-98
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              :   Sheep    :   Weight   :   Shorn    :   Price    :
     Year     :   Shorn    :    per     :    Wool    :    per     :    Value
              :     1/     :   Fleece   : Production :   Pound    :
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              : 1,000 Head     Pounds    1,000 Pounds   Dollars    1,000 Dollars
              :
1996          :   7,215         7.78        56,159        0.70        39,270
1997          :   6,960         7.70        53,578        0.84        44,909
1998          :   6,426         7.66        49,239        0.60        29,406
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/  Includes shearing at commercial feeding yards.
 
 
 
 
          Mohair:  Production, Price, and Value, 4-State Total, 1996-98
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              :            :  Average   :            :   Price    :
     Year     :   Goats    :  Clip per  : Production :    per     :    Value
              :  Clipped   :    Goat    :            :   Pound    :
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              : 1,000 Head     Pounds    1,000 Pounds   Dollars    1,000 Dollars
              :
1996          :   1,189         6.7         8,009         1.93        15,428
1997          :     936         7.3         6,849         2.25        15,411
1998          :     705         7.2         5,089         2.48        12,623
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 
 
 
 
            Mohair:  Production, Price, and Value by Selected States
                           and 4-State Total, 1997-98
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
        :             :   Average   :             :             :
        :    Goats    :    Clip     :             :    Price    :
        :   Clipped   :     per     : Production  :     per     :   Value 1/
  State :             :    Goat     :             :    Pound    :
        :-----------------------------------------------------------------------
        : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 : 1998 : 1997  : 1998
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
        : 1,000 Head      Pounds     1,000 Pounds     Dollars     1,000 Dollars
        :
AZ      :  38     36    4.2    4.5     160    162   1.70   1.25     272     203
NM      :  53     44    5.1    5.5     270    242   1.90   1.30     513     315
OK      :   5      5    7.0    7.0      35     35   2.00   1.75      70      61
TX      : 840    620    7.6    7.5   6,384  4,650   2.28   2.59  14,556  12,044
        :
4 Sts   : 936    705    7.3    7.2   6,849  5,089   2.25   2.48  15,411  12,623
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/  Production multiplied by marketing year average price for individual States;
    4-State value is summation of State values.
 
 
 
 
           Wool:  Number of Sheep and Lambs Shorn, Weight per Fleece,
               and Production by State and United States, 1997-98
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              :     Sheep Shorn     :  Weight per Fleece  :     Production
     State    :-----------------------------------------------------------------
              :   1997   :   1998   :   1997   :   1998   :   1997   :   1998
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              : --- 1,000 Head ---      --- Pounds ---          1,000 Pounds
              :
AL            :     5.5        4.5      6.2        5.6           34         25
AK            :     1.2        1.2      7.5        6.7            9          8
AZ            :   120.0      120.0      6.4        6.5          770        780
CA            :   470.0      480.0      8.1        7.5        3,800      3,600
CO            :   600.0      490.0      6.6        6.9        3,936      3,364
CT            :     4.2        3.6      7.4        7.8           31         28
ID            :   246.0      222.0      9.2        9.4        2,265      2,093
IL            :    82.0       73.0      6.7        6.8          546        495
IN            :    55.0       57.0      6.3        6.5          344        370
IA            :   260.0      240.0      6.0        6.0        1,550      1,440
KS            :    98.0       93.0      7.0        7.0          690        650
KY            :    17.5       20.0      6.7        6.5          117        130
LA            :     6.8        6.6      5.9        6.1           40         40
ME            :     9.0        9.4      7.6        7.9           68         74
MD            :    15.0       16.0      6.9        6.5          104        104
MA            :     7.0        6.0      7.4        7.5           52         45
MI            :    62.0       58.0      7.3        7.4          450        430
MN            :   150.0      160.0      6.5        6.6          970      1,055
MO            :    71.0       83.0      7.0        7.3          500        605
MT            :   387.0      367.0      9.4        9.3        3,632      3,423
NE            :    85.0       91.0      7.6        7.3          644        660
NV            :    70.0       67.0      8.9        9.1          620        607
NH            :     5.6        5.6      7.1        6.6           40         37
NJ            :     9.0        8.5      7.0        7.1           63         60
NM            :   280.0      265.0      9.1        9.0        2,556      2,379
NY            :    51.0       45.0      6.7        6.8          343        307
NC            :     9.2        9.2      6.2        6.1           57         56
ND            :    98.0       98.0      8.8        9.2          860        900
OH            :   135.0      126.0      6.5        6.6          873        835
OK            :    51.0       40.0      6.5        6.0          330        240
OR            :   290.0      210.0      6.5        6.6        1,880      1,380
PA            :    64.0       69.0      6.9        6.8          440        470
SD            :   390.0      355.0      8.5        8.3        3,302      2,950
TN            :    11.0       11.0      6.1        5.9           67         65
TX            : 1,500.0    1,300.0      7.3        7.1       10,950      9,230
UT            :   344.0      337.0      9.3        9.4        3,213      3,157
VT            :    12.4       15.0      7.1        7.3           88        110
VA            :    49.9       45.0      6.0        6.4          300        288
WA            :    41.0       39.0      8.7        8.5          355        330
WV            :    40.0       35.0      6.0        6.0          240        210
WI            :    73.0       62.0      7.5        7.5          546        467
WY            :   650.0      650.0      8.8        8.5        5,690      5,540
              :
Oth Sts 1/    :    33.6       32.5      6.3        6.2          213        202
              :
US            : 6,959.9    6,426.1      7.7        7.7       53,578     49,239
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/  AR, DE, FL, GA, HI, MS, RI, and SC.
 
 
 
 
           Wool:  Price and Value by State and United States, 1997-98
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                :        Price per Pound        :           Value 1/
      State     :---------------------------------------------------------------
                :     1997      :     1998      :     1997      :     1998
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                :     ------ Dollars -----           ---- 1,000 Dollars ---
                :
AL              :     0.48            0.38               16              10
AK              :     1.00            0.90                9               7
AZ              :     0.58            0.47              447             367
CA              :     0.79            0.61            3,002           2,196
CO              :     0.89            0.53            3,503           1,783
CT              :     0.55            0.55               17              15
ID              :     0.74            0.66            1,676           1,381
IL              :     0.43            0.25              235             124
IN              :     0.34            0.26              117              96
IA              :     0.42            0.26              651             374
KS              :     0.58            0.42              400             273
KY              :     0.41            0.32               48              42
LA              :     0.58            0.33               23              13
ME              :     0.50            0.55               34              41
MD              :     0.68            0.50               71              52
MA              :     0.60            0.40               31              18
MI              :     0.44            0.31              198             133
MN              :     0.43            0.34              417             359
MO              :     0.45            0.33              225             200
MT              :     1.01            0.78            3,668           2,670
NE              :     0.52            0.41              335             271
NV              :     0.90            0.58              558             352
NH              :     0.65            0.70               26              26
NJ              :     0.55            0.50               35              30
NM              :     1.07            0.89            2,735           2,117
NY              :     0.54            0.45              185             138
NC              :     0.59            0.49               34              27
ND              :     0.76            0.55              654             495
OH              :     0.43            0.32              375             267
OK              :     0.58            0.39              191              94
OR              :     0.61            0.48            1,147             662
PA              :     0.53            0.47              233             221
SD              :     0.90            0.59            2,972           1,741
TN              :     0.50            0.45               34              29
TX              :     1.06            0.63           11,607           5,815
UT              :     0.75            0.62            2,410           1,957
VT              :     0.65            0.50               57              55
VA              :     0.58            0.44              174             127
WA              :     0.65            0.55              231             182
WV              :     0.61            0.51              146             107
WI              :     0.53            0.39              289             182
WY              :     0.98            0.77            5,576           4,266
                :
Oth Sts 2/      :     0.55            0.45              117              91
                :
US              :     0.84            0.60           44,909          29,406
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/  Production multiplied by marketing year average price.  U.S. value is
    summation of State values.
2/  AR, DE, FL, GA, MS, RI, SC.
 
 
 
 
 
 
       Reliability of Wool and Mohair Production Estimates
 
 
Survey Procedures: A random sample of U. S. producers was surveyed to provide
data for the  number of sheep shorn and production estimates. Survey procedures
ensured that all sheep and goat producers, regardless of size, had a chance to
be included in the survey.  Large producers were sampled more heavily than small
operations.  Data were collected from about 14,500 operators during the first
half of January by mail, telephone, and face-to-face personal interviews.
 
Estimation Procedures: These sheep shorn, wool and mohair production estimates
were prepared by the Agricultural Statistics Board after reviewing
recommendations and analysis submitted by each State office.  National and State
survey data were reviewed for reasonableness with each other and with estimates
from past years.
 
Revision Policy: Revisions to previous estimates are made to improve the current
estimate.   Previous year estimates are subject to revision when current
estimates are made.  Inventory estimates will also be reviewed after data from
the Department of Agriculture's five-year Census of Agriculture are available.
No revisions will be made after that date.
 
Reliability: Since all operations raising sheep and goats are not included in
the sample for  the inventory and  production estimates, survey data are subject
to sampling variability.  Survey results for inventory and production estimates
are also subject to non-sampling errors, such as omissions, duplications, and
mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these
errors cannot be measured directly.  They are minimized through rigid quality
controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all
reported data for consistency and reasonableness.
 
To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report,
the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the table below. The
"Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and
is computed using the differences between first and latest estimates.  The "Root
Mean Square Error" for sheep shorn estimates over the past 10 years is 0.6
percent.  This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will
not be above or below the current estimate of  6.4 million head by more than 0.6
percent, or about 38,600 head. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will
not exceed 1.1 percent, or about 70,700 head (the 90 percent confidence level).
 
Also shown in the table is a 10-year record showing the range between the first
estimate and the latest estimate. Using estimates for Sheep and Lambs Shorn as
an example, changes between the first inventory estimate and the latest estimate
during the past 10 years have averaged 45,000 head, ranging from 2 to 92,000
head.  The  initial inventory estimate of Sheep and Lambs Shorn has been below
the latest estimate 6 times and above 4 times in the last 10 years.
 
 
 
 
        Reliability of U.S. Sheep Shorn and Wool Production Estimates 1/
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
        :        :                 :    Difference Between    :      Years
        :  Root  :       90%       :     First and Latest     :-----------------
        :  Mean  :   Confidence    :        Estimates         : First  : First
  Item  : Square :      Level      :--------------------------: Above  : Below
        : Error  :                 :Average :Smallest:Largest : Latest : Latest
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
        :     Percent       ---------- 1,000 Head ----------        Number
        :
Sheep   :
 Shorn  :  0.6      1.1      70.7     45.0      2.0     92.0      4        6
        :
        :     Percent       --------- 1,000 Pounds ---------        Number
        :
Wool    :
 Prod   :  0.5      0.9     443.2    288.0     18.0    674.0      5        5
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/  Based on data for the past ten years.
 
 
 
The next "Wool and Mohair" report will be released in March 2000.
 
 
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