HDR1012000110080414971500POTATO STOCKS                                          
Potato                                                                          
Stocks                                                                          
                                                                                
National                                                                        
Agricultural                                                                    
Statistics                                                                      
Service                                                                         
                                                                                
USDA                                                                            
Washington, D.C.                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
Released April 14, 1997, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS),
Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture.  For information 
on "Potato Stocks" call Arvin Budge at (202) 720-4285, office hours 7:30 a.m. to
4:00 p.m. ET.                                                                   
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                  Potato Stocks Up 23 Percent                                   
                                                                                
Potato stocks totaled 143 million cwt on April 1, 1997, up 23 percent from last 
year and 11 percent above two years ago.  Disappearance for the season was a    
record high 298 million cwt of potatoes, 7 percent above the past two years.    
Shrinkage and loss of 29.3 million cwt was 5 percent above a year ago.          
Processors used a record high 148 million cwt of potatoes, up 7 percent for the 
season.                                                                         
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
Pot 1-2 (4-97)                                                                  
         Fall Potatoes:  Production and Stocks, 15 Major States, 1987-96        
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
   Crop  :          :         :         :         :         :         :         
   Year  :Production:  Dec 1  :  Jan 1  :  Feb 1  :  Mar 1  :  Apr 1  :  May 1  
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
         :                              1,000 Cwt                               
         :                                                                      
1987     : 335,607    225,890   196,760   167,325   138,800   105,905   70,030  
1988     : 305,623    206,420   177,750   151,050   124,485    92,585   59,355  
1989     : 316,097    202,050   173,550   144,290   116,600    84,320   50,675  
1990     : 344,200    225,500   194,460   162,850   134,470   101,150   63,040  
1991     : 363,541    242,070   211,005   178,515   145,820   108,865   69,110  
1992     : 368,516    246,820   215,990   184,560   152,795   115,785   75,040  
1993     : 375,004    249,710   217,800   186,090   154,135   115,970   73,860  
1994     : 408,139    272,290   237,960   201,870   168,970   128,825   87,500  
1995     : 392,942    256,310   223,150   188,960   155,720   116,255   76,170  
1996     : 441,083    291,300   256,520   220,465   184,565   143,235           
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
        Potatoes:  Quantity Used for Processing, Eight States, 1994-96 1/       
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
     State and     :        :        :        :       :       :       :         
     Crop Year     : Dec 1  : Jan 1  : Feb 1  : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 : Season  
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                   :                         1,000 Cwt                          
                   :                                                            
ID & OR-Malheur Co :                                                            
  1994             : 26,620   34,230   42,330   49,890  57,990  66,680   90,300 
  1995             : 27,310   35,040   43,260   51,530  59,060  66,690   89,250 
  1996             : 31,060   38,210   45,420   54,640  62,570                  
                   :                                                            
ME 2/              :                                                            
  1994             :  1,505    1,840    2,265    2,540   2,985   3,330    4,770 
  1995             :  1,335    1,690    2,180    2,520   3,025   3,465    5,225 
  1996             :  1,400    1,725    2,225    2,520   3,135                  
                   :                                                            
WA & OR - Other    :                                                            
  1994             : 28,670   33,480   39,120   46,070  52,940  59,540   76,780 
  1995             : 30,000   35,170   39,460   45,280  51,730  57,360   70,250 
  1996             : 31,650   36,590   41,690   48,740  55,570                  
                   :                                                            
Oth Sts 3/         :                                                            
  1994             :  8,785   12,070   14,605   17,095  19,840  22,595   32,260 
  1995             : 12,450   15,330   18,415   21,485  24,910  28,010   33,305 
  1996             : 13,660   16,570   20,140   23,500  27,005                  
                   :                                                            
Total              :                                                            
  1994             : 65,580   81,620   98,320  115,595 133,755 152,145  204,110 
  1995             : 71,095   87,230  103,315  120,815 138,725 155,525  198,030 
  1996             : 77,770   93,095  109,475  129,400 148,280                  
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1/  Total quantity received and used for processing regardless of the State in  
    which the potatoes were produced.  Amount excludes quantities used for      
    potato chips in ME, MI, MN, ND, and WI.                                     
2/  Includes Maine grown potatoes only.                                         
3/  MI, MN, ND, and WI.                                                         
                                                                                
          Fall Potatoes:  Production and Stocks on April 1, 1996-97 1/          
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
               :          Crop of 1995          :         Crop of 1996          
               :----------------------------------------------------------------
     State     :          :  Stocks  :    %     :          :  Stocks  :    %    
               :   Prod   :  Apr 1,  :    of    :   Prod   :  Apr 1,  :   of    
               :          :   1996   :   Prod   :          :   1997   :  Prod   
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
               : ---- 1,000 Cwt ---    Percent    ---- 1,000 Cwt ---    Percent 
               :                                                                
CA             :   5,330      1,700       32        4,600      1,700      37    
CO             :  23,808      9,100       38       28,786     12,800      44    
ID             : 132,657     49,500       37      139,960     52,000      37    
ME             :  17,160      5,700       33       21,175      8,400      40    
MI             :  16,350      2,700       17       13,800      2,500      18    
MN             :  20,790      6,800       33       24,600      9,000      37    
MT             :   2,940      1,750       60        3,213      1,900      59    
NE             :   3,680      2/705                 4,402    2/1,005            
NY             :   7,695        400                 7,980        350       4    
ND             :  25,410      7,000       28       28,820      9,300      32    
OH             :   1,404         2/                 1,275         2/            
OR             :  24,788      7,500       30       31,684     14,000      44    
PA             :   4,080        400       10        4,208        280       7    
WA             :  80,850     18,000       22       94,990     23,000      24    
WI             :  26,000      5,000       19       31,590      7,000      22    
               :                                                                
Total 15 State : 392,942    116,255       30      441,083    143,235      32    
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/  Stocks include processor holdings and seed to plant 1997 potatoes.  1996    
    crop seed usage totaled 30.4 million cwt.                                   
2/  Combined to prevent possible disclosure of individual operations.           
                   Potato Stocks Up 23 Percent                                  
                                                                                
April 1, 1997 stocks totaled 143 million cwt, up 23 percent from last year and  
11 percent above two years ago.  Stocks made up 32 percent of fall potato       
production in the 15 storage States, up two points from a year ago.  Season-to- 
date disappearance totaled a record 298 million cwt, up 7 percent from the last 
two years.  Processor usage was also record high at 148 million cwt, up         
7 percent from last year.  Shrinkage and loss to date was 29.3 million cwt,     
5 percent above a year ago.                                                     
                                                                                
                                                                                
Disappearance from the start of harvest through March totaled 298 million cwt of
potatoes, up 7 percent from the last two years.  Shrinkage and loss was         
29.3 million cwt, 5 percent above the 27.9 million cwt lost last year and       
3 percent above losses two years ago.                                           
                                                                                
                                                                                
Processing continued to move potatoes at a record pace for the season, totaling 
148 million cwt of potatoes, up 7 percent from the same period last year and    
11 percent above two years ago.  March processor usage was 18.9 million cwt, up 
5 percent from a year ago and 4 percent above two years ago.                    
                                                                                
                                                                                
Eastern States stored 9.03 million cwt of potatoes on April 1, 1997, up         
39 percent from last year and 49 percent above two years ago.  Maine's stocks   
were up 47 percent.  New York was down 12 percent, and Pennsylvania was down    
30  percent, as their seasons draw to a close.                                  
                                                                                
                                                                                
Central States held 28.8 million cwt of potatoes in storage on April 1, 1997.   
This is 30 percent above last year and 33 percent higher than two years ago.    
Wisconsin's stocks were up 40 percent while North Dakota's stocks were up       
33 percent from last year.  Minnesota's were up 32 percent.  Nebraska's stocks  
were up 43 percent but Michigan's stocks were down 7 percent.                   
                                                                                
                                                                                
Stocks in the six Western States totaled 105 million cwt, up 20  percent from   
last year and 4 percent above two years ago.  Idaho's stocks were up 5 percent. 
Washington's stocks gained 28 percent, and Oregon's stocks increased 87 percent.
These three States contain 62 percent of U. S. stocks.  Colorado's stocks were  
up 41 percent.  Montana's stocks were up 9 percent, while California equaled a  
year ago.                                                                       
                  Reliability of April 1 Stocks Estimates                       
                                                                                
The "Root Mean Square Error" for the April 1 stocks estimate is 5.6 percent.    
This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current estimate of 143 million 
cwt will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 5.6 percent or   
approximately 8.0 million cwt.  Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence  
level) that the difference will not exceed 9.7 percent or 13.9 million cwt.     
                                                                                
The 10-year (1986-95) record of differences between the April 1 stocks estimate 
and the final estimates averaged 4.7 million cwt, ranging from 0.01 million cwt 
to 12.8 million cwt.  During this 10-year period, the April 1 estimate has been 
below the final estimate 9 out of 10 years.                                     
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
           Fall Potato Stocks:  Preliminary and Final April Stocks,             
                             United States, 1986-96                             
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
   Crop   :      Preliminary      :        % of         :         Final         
   Year   :        Stocks         :        Final        :       Stocks 1/       
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          :       1,000 Cwt               Percent               1,000 Cwt       
          :                                                                     
1986      :         91,670                  96.4                  95,090        
1987      :        105,895                 100.0                 105,905        
1988      :         86,745                  93.7                  92,585        
1989      :         83,540                  99.1                  84,320        
1990      :         91,910                  90.9                 101,150        
1991      :        109,600                 100.7                 108,865        
1992      :        103,010                  89.0                 115,785        
1993      :        108,455                  93.5                 115,970        
1994      :        123,285                  95.7                 128,825        
1995      :        112,925                  97.1                 116,255        
1996      :        143,235                                                      
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/  As reported in the September "Potato" annual report.                        
                                                                                
                                                                                
Note:  Stocks are defined as the quantity (whether sold or not) remaining in    
       storage for all purposes and uses, including seed potatoes not yet moved 
       and shrinkage, waste, and other losses that occur after the date of each 
       report.  Sales of fall potatoes for all purposes for the past 5 years    
       averaged 90.5 percent of the total fall production shrinkage, loss and   
       home use account for the remaining 9.5 percent.  Most seed for use the   
       following year is on hand but remains as part of stocks until planted.   
The next "Potato Stocks" report will be released at 3:00 p.m. ET on May 14,     
1997.                                                                           
                                                                                
                                                                                
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disability, political beliefs, and marital or familial status.  Persons with    
disabilities who require alternative means for communication of program         
information (braille, large print, audiotape, etc.) should contact the USDA     
Office of Communications at (202) 720-2791.                                     
                                                                                
To file a complaint, write the Secretary of Agriculture, USDA, Washington, D.C.,
20250, or call 1-800-245-6340 (voice) or (202) 720-1127 (TDD).  USDA is an equal
employment opportunity employer.                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
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