Wool and
Mohair
     National
     Agricultural
     Statistics
     Service
 
USDA
Washington, D.C.
 
Released March 26, 1998, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service
(NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture.
For information on "Wool and Mohair" call James Hand at 202-690-3236,
office hours 7:00 a.m. to 4:30 p.m. ET.
 
               1997 Wool Production Down 5 Percent
 
Shorn wool production in the United States during 1997 was 53.9 million
pounds, down 5 percent from 1996. Sheep and lambs shorn totaled 7.03
million head, a decrease of 3 percent from 1996. The average price paid
for wool sold in 1997 was $0.84 per pound for a total value of $45.2
million, up 14 percent from $39.7 million in 1996.
 
 
Mohair production in the four major producing states (Arizona, New
Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas) during 1997 was 6.93 million pounds, down
14 percent from 1996. Goats and kids clipped, at .95 million head, were
down 20 percent from 1996. Average weight per clip was 7.3 pounds
compared with 6.7 pounds a year earlier. Value of mohair was $15.6
million, up slightly from 1996.
 
 
 
           Wool:  Production, Price, and Value, United States, 1995-97
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              :   Sheep    :   Weight   :   Shorn    :   Price    :
     Year     :   Shorn    :    per     :    Wool    :    per     :    Value
              :     1/     :   Fleece   : Production :   Pound    :
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              : 1,000 Head     Pounds    1,000 Pounds   Dollars    1,000 Dollars
              :
1995          :   8,138         7.80        63,513        1.04        64,277
1996          :   7,279         7.79        56,669        0.70        39,659
1997          :   7,032         7.66        53,889        0.84        45,172
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/  Includes shearing at commercial feeding yards.
 
 
 
Lv Gn 2 (3-98)
 
 
 
          Mohair:  Production, Price, and Value, 4-State Total, 1995-97
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              :            :  Average   :            :   Price    :
     Year     :   Goats    :  Clip per  : Production :    per     :    Value
              :  Clipped   :    Goat    :            :   Pound    :      1/
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              : 1,000 Head     Pounds    1,000 Pounds   Dollars    1,000 Dollars
              :
1995          :   1,618         7.4         12,019        1.84        22,089
1996          :   1,198         6.7          8,045        1.92        15,486
1997          :     953         7.3          6,929        2.25        15,563
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 
 
 
            Mohair:  Production, Price, and Value by Selected States
                           and 4-State Total, 1996-97
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
        :             :   Average   :             :             :
        :    Goats    :    Clip     :             :    Price    :
        :   Clipped   :     per     : Production  :     per     :   Value 1/
  State :             :    Goat     :             :    Pound    :
        :-----------------------------------------------------------------------
        : 1996 : 1997 : 1996 : 1997 : 1996 : 1997 : 1996 : 1997 : 1996  : 1997
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
        : 1,000 Head      Pounds     1,000 Pounds     Dollars     1,000 Dollars
        :
AZ      :   38    38    4.2    4.2     160    160   1.47   1.70     235     272
NM      :   80    70    4.0    5.0     320    350   1.61   1.90     515     665
OK      :   10     5    7.5    7.0      75     35   1.73   2.00     130      70
TX      :1,070   840    7.0    7.6   7,490  6,384   1.95   2.28  14,606  14,556
        :
4 Sts   :1,198   953    6.7    7.3   8,045  6,929   1.92   2.25  15,486  15,563
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/  Production multiplied by marketing year average price for individual States;
    4-State value is summation of State values.
 
 
 
           Wool:  Number of Sheep and Lambs Shorn, Weight per Fleece,
               and Production by State and United States, 1996-97
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              :     Sheep Shorn     :  Weight per Fleece  :     Production
     State    :-----------------------------------------------------------------
              :   1996   :   1997   :   1996   :   1997   :   1996   :   1997
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              : --- 1,000 Head ---      --- Pounds ---          1,000 Pounds
              :
AL            :     5.0        5.0      6.0        6.0           30         30
AK            :     1.0        1.0      7.0        7.0            7          7
AZ            :   125.0      120.0      6.0        6.4          750        770
CA            :   640.0      580.0      7.6        7.6        4,860      4,400
CO            :   605.0      600.0      7.1        6.6        4,318      3,936
CT            :     5.4        4.8      6.5        7.5           35         36
ID            :   239.0      246.0      9.3        9.2        2,228      2,265
IL            :    85.0       82.0      6.7        6.7          570        546
IN            :    67.0       55.0      6.4        6.3          430        344
IA            :   335.0      260.0      6.0        6.0        2,000      1,550
KS            :   111.0       98.0      7.0        7.0          780        690
KY            :    15.5       13.5      6.5        6.2          100         84
LA            :     9.0        8.5      6.1        5.9           55         50
ME            :     8.0        9.0      7.0        7.6           56         68
MD            :    24.0       25.0      6.7        6.6          161        165
MA            :     9.0        8.5      7.0        7.2           63         61
MI            :    81.0       74.0      7.6        7.3          615        540
MN            :   170.0      155.0      6.6        6.5        1,120      1,010
MO            :    77.0       74.0      6.7        6.8          513        506
MT            :   434.0      402.0      9.6        9.5        4,150      3,813
NE            :    97.0       85.0      7.4        7.6          720        644
NV            :    70.0       70.0      9.6        8.9          669        620
NH            :     5.1        5.3      7.1        7.2           36         38
NJ            :    14.0       11.0      6.9        6.7           96         74
NM            :   305.0      280.0      9.0        9.1        2,753      2,556
NY            :    53.0       51.0      7.1        6.7          377        343
NC            :    10.6        9.7      6.7        6.4           71         62
ND            :   110.0       98.0      8.8        8.8          965        860
OH            :   133.0      116.0      6.8        6.4          910        745
OK            :    36.0       43.0      6.4        7.1          230        305
OR            :   340.0      290.0      6.6        6.5        2,245      1,880
PA            :    72.0       68.0      6.9        6.9          500        470
SD            :   420.0      390.0      8.5        8.5        3,580      3,302
TN            :    10.0       11.0      6.0        6.1           60         67
TX            : 1,320.0    1,500.0      7.5        7.3        9,900     10,950
UT            :   336.0      308.0      9.2        9.4        3,090      2,905
VT            :    14.5       10.5      7.2        7.2          105         76
VA            :    56.0       53.0      6.2        6.0          346        319
WA            :    48.0       43.0      8.9        8.7          426        375
WV            :    45.0       40.0      6.0        6.0          270        240
WI            :    63.0       67.0      7.5        7.4          470        496
WY            :   640.0      625.0      9.1        8.8        5,811      5,485
              :
Oth Sts 1/    :    34.7       35.7      5.7        5.8          198        206
              :
US            : 7,278.8    7,031.5      7.8        7.7       56,669     53,889
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/  AR, DE, FL, GA, HI, MS, RI, and SC.
 
 
 
           Wool:  Price and Value by State and United States, 1996-97
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                :        Price per Pound        :           Value 1/
      State     :---------------------------------------------------------------
                :     1996      :     1997      :     1996      :     1997
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                :     ------ Dollars -----           ---- 1,000 Dollars ---
                :
AL              :     0.38            0.48               11              14
AK              :     0.90            1.00                6               7
AZ              :     0.61            0.58              458             447
CA              :     0.67            0.79            3,256           3,476
CO              :     0.73            0.89            3,152           3,503
CT              :     0.40            0.55               14              20
ID              :     0.62            0.74            1,381           1,676
IL              :     0.34            0.43              194             235
IN              :     0.31            0.34              133             117
IA              :     0.39            0.42              780             651
KS              :     0.51            0.58              398             400
KY              :     0.33            0.41               33              34
LA              :     0.33            0.58               18              29
ME              :     0.45            0.50               25              34
MD              :     0.49            0.68               79             112
MA              :     0.40            0.60               25              37
MI              :     0.36            0.44              221             238
MN              :     0.43            0.43              482             434
MO              :     0.36            0.45              185             228
MT              :     0.94            1.01            3,901           3,851
NE              :     0.49            0.52              353             335
NV              :     0.69            0.90              462             558
NH              :     0.60            0.65               22              25
NJ              :     0.78            0.55               75              41
NM              :     0.85            1.07            2,340           2,735
NY              :     0.55            0.54              207             185
NC              :     0.62            0.59               44              37
ND              :     0.70            0.76              676             654
OH              :     0.39            0.43              355             320
OK              :     0.50            0.58              115             177
OR              :     0.45            0.61            1,010           1,147
PA              :     0.49            0.53              245             249
SD              :     0.77            0.90            2,757           2,972
TN              :     0.42            0.50               25              34
TX              :     0.84            1.06            8,316          11,607
UT              :     0.65            0.75            2,009           2,179
VT              :     0.60            0.65               63              49
VA              :     0.48            0.58              166             185
WA              :     0.60            0.65              256             244
WV              :     0.51            0.61              138             146
WI              :     0.42            0.53              197             263
WY              :     0.86            0.98            4,997           5,375
                :
Oth Sts 2/      :     0.40            0.55               79             113
                :
US              :     0.70            0.84           39,659          45,172
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/  Production multiplied by marketing year average price.  U.S. value is
    summation of State values.
2/  AR, DE, FL, GA, MS, RI, SC.
 
 
 
 
 
       Reliability of Wool and Mohair Production Estimates
 
 
Survey Procedures: A random sample of U. S. producers was surveyed to
provide data for the number of sheep shorn and production estimates.
Survey procedures ensured that all sheep and goat producers, regardless
of size, had a chance to be included in the survey. Large producers were
sampled more heavily than small operations. Data were collected from
about 15,000 operators during the first half of January by mail,
telephone, and face-to-face personal interviews.
 
Estimation Procedures: These sheep shorn, wool and mohair production
estimates were prepared by the Agricultural Statistics Board after
reviewing recommendations and analysis submitted by each State office.
National and State survey data were reviewed for reasonableness with
each other and with estimates from past years.
 
Revision Policy: Revisions to previous estimates are made to improve the
current estimate. Previous year estimates are subject to revision when
current estimates are made. Inventory estimates will also be reviewed
after data from the Department of Agriculture's five-year Census of
Agriculture are available. No revisions will be made after that date.
 
Reliability: Since all operations raising sheep and goats are not
included in the sample for the inventory and production estimates,
survey data are subject to sampling variability. Survey results for
inventory and production estimates are also subject to non-sampling
errors, such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting,
recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot
be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls
in the data collection process and through a careful review of all
reported data for consistency and reasonableness.
 
To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this
report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the
table below. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based
on past performance and is computed using the differences between first
and latest estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for sheep shorn
estimates over the past 10 years is 0.5 percent. This means that chances
are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the
current estimate of 7.0 million head by more than 0.5 percent, or about
35,100 head. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed
0.9 percent, or about 63,300 head (the 90 percent confidence level).
 
Also shown in the table is a 10-year record showing the range between
the first estimate and the latest estimate. Using estimates for Sheep
and Lambs Shorn as an example, changes between the first inventory
estimate and the latest estimate during the past 10 years have averaged
42,000 head, ranging from 0 to 105,000 head. The inventory estimate of
Sheep and Lambs Shorn has been below the latest estimate 5 times and
above 4 times in the last 10 years.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
        Reliability of U.S. Sheep Shorn and Wool Production Estimates 1/
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
        :        :                 :    Difference Between    :      Years
        :  Root  :       90%       :     First and Latest     :-----------------
        :  Mean  :   Confidence    :        Estimates         : First  : First
  Item  : Square :      Level      :--------------------------: Above  : Below
        : Error  :                 :Average :Smallest:Largest : Latest : Latest
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
        :     Percent       ----------- 1,000 Head ----------       Number
        :
Sheep   :
 Shorn  :  0.5      0.9      63.3     42.0     0.0      105.0     4        5
        :
        :     Percent       ---------- 1,000 Pounds ---------       Number
        :
Wool    :
 Prod   :  0.6      1.1     593.0    358.0     0.0    1,307.0     4        5
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/  Based on data for the past ten years.
 
 
The next "Wool and Mohair" report will be released in March 1999.
 
 
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