HDR1012000110080314951500Potato Stocks
HDR2012000110080314951500Potato Stocks Narrative

Released March 14, 1995, by the Agricultural Statistics Board.

                        Potato Stocks Up 6 Percent

Potato stocks on the first of March totaled 163 million cwt, up 6 percent from
a year ago and 7 percent above two years ago.  Disappearance was a record high
237 million cwt of potatoes this season, up 7 percent from last year.  Shrink
and loss of 26.3 million cwt was 6 percent more than a year ago.  Processor
usage, at 116 million cwt of potatoes, was up 9 percent for the season, and
February usage was up 3 percent from the same month last year.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------

For information call Arvin Budge at (202) 720-4285.  Office hours are
8:00 a.m. to 4:30 p.m. ET.

Pot 1-2 (3-95)


HDR2012000110080314951500Fall Potatoes

       Fall Potatoes:  Production and Stocks, 15 Major States, 1985-94
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  Crop  :          :         :         :         :         :         :
  Year  :Production:  Dec 1  :  Jan 1  :  Feb 1  :  Mar 1  :  Apr 1  : May 1
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
        :                              1,000 Cwt
        :
1985    :  343,984   235,475   202,800   171,510   138,720   104,540   65,380
1986    :  307,928   209,435   180,915   154,545   128,720    95,090   59,790
1987    :  335,607   225,890   196,760   167,325   138,800   105,905   70,030
1988    :  305,623   206,420   177,750   151,050   124,485    92,585   59,355
1989    :  316,097   202,050   173,550   144,290   116,600    84,320   50,675
1990    :  344,200   225,500   194,460   162,850   134,470   101,150   63,040
1991    :  363,541   242,070   211,005   178,515   145,820   108,865   69,110
1992    :  368,516   246,820   215,990   184,560   152,795   115,785   75,040
1993    :  375,004   249,710   217,800   186,090   154,135   115,970   73,860
1994    :  400,385   263,630   229,350   196,005   163,305
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

      Potatoes:  Quantity Used for Processing, Eight States, 1992-94 1/
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
     State and    :        :        :       :        :       :       :
     Crop Year    :  Dec 1 :  Jan 1 : Feb 1 :  Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 : Season
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                  :                           1,000 Cwt
ID & OR-Malheur Co:
  1992            :  22,180   29,080  35,710   42,800  50,090  57,090  80,570
  1993            :  24,090   30,540  37,150   44,720  53,070  61,440  85,780
  1994            :  26,620   34,230  42,330   49,890
                  :
ME 2/             :
  1992            :   1,195    1,630   2,205    2,720   3,390   4,020   5,055
  1993            :   1,350    1,720   2,210    2,505   2,890   3,275   4,555
  1994            :   1,510    1,840   2,275    2,535
                  :
WA & OR-Other     :
  1992            :  26,840   31,550  35,950   41,670  46,530  51,630  63,510
  1993            :  28,260   33,350  39,010   45,020  51,290  57,180  70,690
  1994            :  28,690   33,500  39,120   46,070
                  :
Oth Sts 3/        :
  1992            :   7,140    9,220  11,265   13,305  15,550  17,555  25,070
  1993            :   7,605    9,515  11,605   13,720  16,080  18,705  25,690
  1994            :   8,790   12,045  14,605   17,095
                  :
Total             :
  1992            :  57,355   71,480  85,130  100,495 115,560 130,295 174,205
  1993            :  61,305   75,125  89,975  105,965 123,330 140,600 186,715
  1994            :  65,610   81,615  98,330  115,590
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/  Total quantity received and used for processing regardless of the state in
    which the potatoes were produced.  Amount excludes quantities used for
    potato chips in ME, MI, MN, ND, and WI.
2/  Includes Maine grown potatoes only.
3/  MI, MN, ND, and WI.


         Fall Potatoes:  Production and Stocks on March 1, 1994-95
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              :         Crop of 1993           :        Crop of 1994
              :---------------------------------------------------------------
    State     :           : Stocks   :   %     :          : Stocks   :   %
              :   Prod    : Mar 1,   :   of    :  Prod    : Mar 1,   :   of
              :           :  1994    :  Prod   :          :  1995    :  Prod
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              :   --- 1,000 Cwt ----   Percent    --- 1,000 Cwt ----   Percent
              :
CA            :     4,800      2,200        46      4,400      2,300       52
CO            :    25,270     10,900        43     25,795     11,200       43
ID            :   126,192     65,000        52    134,340     63,000       47
ME            :    19,890      8,200        41     17,250      7,700       45
MI            :    11,780      3,100        26     12,180      3,800       31
MN            :    12,650      5,000        40     17,755      8,200       46
MT            :     2,700      2,370        88      3,200      2,730       85
NE            :     3,008      1,050        35      3,888      1,350       35
NY            :
  Long Island :     1,643      1/115                1,617      1/225
  Upstate     :     6,050        600        10      6,188      1,100       18
ND            :    21,090      7,900        37     28,200     10,400       37
OH            :     1,140         1/                1,348         1/
OR            :    23,103     12,100        52     25,784     13,000       50
PA            :     4,600        900        20      3,780        700       19
WA            :    88,500     26,500        30     88,920     30,500       34
WI            :    22,588      8,200        36     25,740      7,100       28
              :
Total 15 State:   375,004    154,135        41    400,385    163,305       41
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/  Combined to prevent possible disclosure of individual operations.


HDR2012000110080314951500Potato Stocks up 6 percent Narrative

                        Potato Stocks up 6 percent

Potato stocks totaled 163 million cwt on March 1, 1995, up 6 percent from last
year and 7 percent above two years ago.  Stocks now are 41 percent of fall
potato production in the 15 storage States, the same as last year.
Disappearance to date for the season was a record 237 million cwt, 7 percent
above last year and 10 percent above two years ago.  Processors used
116 million cwt, up 9 percent.


Disappearance from harvest through February totaled 237 million cwt of
potatoes, up 7 percent from last year and 10 percent above two years ago.
February disappearance of 32.7 million was up 2 percent from a year ago.
Shrinkage and loss to date was 26.3 million cwt, up 6 percent from the
24.9 million cwt lost last year and 3 percent above the 25.7 million cwt lost
two years ago.

Processor usage totaled 116 million cwt to March 1, 1995, up 9 percent from a
year ago and 15 percent above two years ago.  February processing of
17.3 million cwt of potatoes was up 8 percent from last year and 12 percent
above 1994.


Eastern States stored 9.7 million cwt of potatoes this year, down 2 percent
from last year and 27 percent below 1993.  Maine's stocks were down 6 percent
and Pennsylvania's stocks were off 22 percent.


Central States accounted for 30.9 million cwt of potato stocks this March, up
22 percent from last year and 3 percent above two years ago.  North Dakota's
stocks were 32 percent above a year ago but 1 percent below two years ago.
Minnesota's storages were up 64 percent.  Nebraska's stocks were up 29 percent
and Michigan's cellars stored 23 percent more than a year ago.  Wisconsin's
stocks were off 13 percent from last year.


Western States held 123 million cwt of potatoes in storage on March 1, 1995.
This is up 3 percent from last year and 12 percent above two years ago.
Idaho's stocks were off 3 percent and accounted for over half of the Western
total.  Oregon's stocks were up 7 percent and Washington was 15 percent above a
year earlier.  Colorado's stocks were up 3 percent from last year and
California's storage was up 5 percent.  Montana's stocks, mainly seed, were up
15 percent.


HDR2012000110080314951500Reliability

                    Reliability of March 1 Stocks Estimates

The "Root Mean Square Error" for the March 1 stocks estimate is 3.9 percent.
This means the that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current estimate of
163 million cwt will not be above or below the final estimate by more than
3.9 percent or approximately 6.4 million cwt.  Chances are 9 out of 10
(90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 6.8 percent
or approximately 11.1 million cwt.

The 10-year (1984-93) record of the differences between the March 1 stocks
estimates and the final estimates averaged 4.3 million cwt, ranging from
0.4 million to 13.1 million cwt.  During the 10-year period, the March 1
estimate has been below the final estimate 9 out of 10 years.

         Fall Potato Stocks:  Preliminary and Final March Stocks,
                    United States, 1984-94 Crop Years
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  Crop   :     Preliminary        :       % of        :       Final
  Year   :        Stocks          :       Final       :       Stocks  1/
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
         :      1,000 Cwt                Percent             1,000 Cwt
         :
1984     :      116,655                   98.5               118,400
1985     :      137,420                   99.1               138,720
1986     :      124,820                   97.0               128,720
1987     :      137,950                   99.4               138,800
1988     :      118,960                   95.6               124,485
1989     :      115,780                   99.3               116,600
1990     :      126,030                   93.7               134,470
1991     :      146,180                  100.2               145,820
1992     :      139,665                   91.4               152,795
1993     :      146,080                   94.8               154,135
1994     :      163,305                    --                   --
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/  As reported in the September Potato Annual Report.


Note:  Stocks are defined as the quantity (whether sold or not) remaining
       in storage for all purposes and uses, including seed potatoes not yet
       moved and shrinkage, waste, and other losses that occur after the
       date of each report.  Sales of fall potatoes for all purposes for
       the past 5 years averaged 90.6 percent of the total fall production.
       Shrinkage, loss and home use account for the remaining 9.4 percent.
       Most seed for use the following year is on hand, but remains as
       part of stocks until planted.


The next "Potato Stocks" report will be released at 3 p.m. ET on
April 13, 1995.


The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination in
its programs on the basis of race, color, national origin, sex, religion, age,
disability, political beliefs, and marital or familial status.  Persons with
disabilities who require alternative means for communication of program
information (braille, large print, audiotape, etc.) should contact the
USDA Office of Communications at (202) 720-5881 (voice) or (202) 720-7808
(TDD).

To file a complaint, write the Secretary of Agriculture, USDA, Washington,
D.C., 20250, or call (202) 720-7327 (voice) or (202) 720-1127 (TDD).  USDA is
an equal employment opportunity employer.


Publications may be obtained in hard copy or on diskette by calling the ERS-
NASS order desk toll free at 1-800-999-6779 or by mail from  ERS-NASS, 341
Victory Drive, Herndon, VA 22070.

Bulletins cost $10.00 each for paper products or 3.5" ASCII diskettes.  To
order bulletins by mail, return this form along with your check payable to ERS-
NASS.  The bulletins will also be available on Internet through the Mann
Library at Cornell University (gopher usda.mannlib.cornell.edu 70) at no
charge.
