Da 1-1 (3-99)

Milk

Production

National

Agricultural

Statistics

Service

USDA

Washington, D.C.

Released March 16, 1999, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of

Agriculture. For information on "Milk Production" call James Hand at 202-690-3236, office hours 7:00 a.m. to 4:30 p.m. ET.

February Milk Production Up 4.3 Percent 

Milk production in the 20 major States during February totaled 10.8 billion pounds, up 4.3

percent from production in these same States in February 1998. January revised production, at

11.7 billion pounds was up 3.5 percent from January 1998.

Production per cow in the 20 major States averaged 1,407 pounds for February, 60 pounds

above February 1998.

The number of cows on farms in the 20 major States was 7.70 million head, 16,000 head less

than February 1998 and 4,000 head less than January 1999. 
Milk Production Agricultural Statistics Board

March 1999 2 NASS, USDA

Milk Cows and Production: By Quarter, United States, 1998-99 1

Quarter

Milk Cows 2 Milk Per Cow 3 Milk Production 3

1998 1999 1998 1999 1998 1999

Change

From

1998

1,000 Head 1,000 Head Pounds Pounds Million Pounds Million Pounds Percent

Jan-Mar

Apr-Jun

Jul-Sep

Oct-Dec

Annual

9,176

9,171

9,149

9,137

9,158

4,268

4,451

4,210

4,261

17,192

39,164

40,821

38,519

38,937

157,441 1 May not add due to rounding. 2 Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3 Excludes milk sucked by calves.

Milk Cows and Production: By Month, 20 Selected States, 1998-99

Month

Milk Cows 1 Milk Per Cow 2 Milk Production 2

1998 1999 1998 1999 1998 1999

Change

From

1998

1,000 Head 1,000 Head Pounds Pounds Million Pounds Million Pounds Percent

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Annual

7,728

7,716

7,709

7,713

7,719

7,718

7,709

7,708

7,701

7,695

7,697

7,708

7,710

7,704

7,700

1,466

1,347

1,515

1,501

1,556

1,477

1,468

1,443

1,386

1,446

1,407

1,489

17,501

1,521

1,407

11,327

10,394

11,678

11,579

12,011

11,396

11,314

11,124

10,672

11,125

10,829

11,481

134,930

11,720

10,836

3.5

4.3

1 Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2 Excludes milk sucked by calves.

Estimated Milk Production: United States, 1998-99

Month

By Month Cumulative

1998 1999

Change

From

1998

1998 1999

Change

From

1998

Million Pounds Million Pounds Percent Million Pounds Million Pounds Percent

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

13,282

12,188

13,694

13,510

14,015

13,296

13,162

12,942

12,415

12,956

12,611

13,370

13,743

12,706

3.5

4.3

13,282

25,470

39,164

52,674

66,689

79,985

93,147

106,089

118,504

131,460

144,071

157,441

13,743

26,449

3.5

3.8
Milk Production Agricultural Statistics Board

March 1999 3 NASS, USDA

Milk Cows and Production: By State, February 1998-99

Month

Milk Cows 1 Milk Per Cow 2 Milk Production 2

1998 1999 1998 1999 1998 1999

Change

From

1998

1,000 Head 1,000 Head Pounds Pounds Million Pounds Million Pounds Percent

AZ

CA

FL

ID

IL

IN

IA

KY

MI

MN

MO

NM

NY

OH

PA

TX

VT

VA

WA

WI

20-State

 Total

130

1,405

160

283

129

134

224

143

296

555

175

216

698

265

625

365

162

125

250

1,376

7,716

132

1,448

158

306

125

136

215

135

301

545

164

220

702

260

615

340

162

122

248

1,366

7,700

1,660

1,480

1,300

1,490

1,310

1,260

1,320

965

1,370

1,320

1,090

1,480

1,280

1,310

1,365

1,290

1,285

1,175

1,605

1,255

1,347

1,835

1,560

1,335

1,490

1,310

1,300

1,380

970

1,415

1,400

1,150

1,615

1,340

1,340

1,375

1,400

1,320

1,190

1,695

1,300

1,407

216

2,079

208

422

169

169

296

138

406

733

191

320

893

347

853

471

208

147

401

1,727

10,394

242

2,259

211

456

164

177

297

131

426

763

189

355

941

348

846

476

214

145

420

1,776

10,836

12.0

8.7

1.4

8.1

-3.0

4.7

0.3

-5.1

4.9

4.1

-1.0

10.9

5.4

0.3

-0.8

1.1

2.9

-1.4

4.7

2.8

4.3 1 Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2 Excludes milk sucked by calves.
Milk Production Agricultural Statistics Board

March 1999 4 NASS, USDA

Milk Cows and Production: By State, January 1998-99 1

State

Milk Cows 2 Milk per Cow 3 Milk Production 3

1998 1999 1998 1999 1998 1999

Change

From

1998

1,000 Head 1,000 Head Pounds Pounds Million Pounds Million Pounds Percent

AZ

CA

FL

ID

IL

IN

IA

KY

MI

MN

MO

NM

NY

OH

PA

TX

VT

VA

WA

WI

20-State

 Total

130

1,402

160

283

130

135

225

145

298

555

175

216

700

265

625

368

163

125

250

1,378

7,728

132

1,443

158

304

125

137

220

135

301

545

165

220

702

260

617

340

162

122

248

1,368

7,704

1,800

1,670

1,375

1,640

1,400

1,370

1,440

1,035

1,480

1,420

1,155

1,510

1,380

1,430

1,495

1,340

1,385

1,295

1,745

1,360

1,466

1,910

1,690

1,410

1,660

1,430

1,380

1,515

1,045

1,545

1,505

1,240

1,740

1,440

1,440

1,475

1,480

1,440

1,295

1,860

1,415

1,521

234

2,341

220

464

182

185

324

150

441

788

202

326

966

379

934

493

226

162

436

1,874

11,327

252

2,439

223

505

179

189

333

141

465

820

205

383

1,011

374

910

503

233

158

461

1,936

11,720

7.7

4.2

1.4

8.8

-1.6

2.2

2.8

-6.0

5.4

4.1

1.5

17.5

4.7

-1.3

-2.6

2.0

3.1

-2.5

5.7

3.3

3.5 1 1999 revised. 2 Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3 Excludes milk sucked by calves.
Milk Production Agricultural Statistics Board

March 1999 5 NASS, USDA

Reliability Statement

Survey Procedures: Primary data used to determine these estimates were obtained from a sample of

producers. Individual States maintain a list of all known milk producers and information on the size of

their herd. States use all known sources of producers to ensure that their lists are as complete as

possible. Generally, all large producers and a sample of small producers are included in the survey. 

Questionnaires are mailed to producers near the end of the month to obtain data for the first day of the

month. Additional reports are obtained by telephone, as needed, to supplement the mail response.

Estimation Procedures: State offices prepare these estimates using survey indications, historic trends,

and any available administrative data. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural

Statistics Board for reasonableness.

Revision Policy: Milk production, rate per cow, and number of cows are subject to revision the

following month for monthly States or the following quarter for the quarterly States. Normally, Federal

Market Order sales are the main basis for revisions. However, data for all orders are not available in time

for this revision. Estimates are again subject to revisions in February each year based on additional

administrative data. In the event that additional changes are necessary, a third revision is possible in

February the following year. Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five-year Census of

Agriculture are available. No revisions are made after that date.

Reliability: Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in the sample, survey estimates are

subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions,

duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors

cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection

process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness.

To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error"

is shown for selected items on the next page. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure

based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The

"Root Mean Square Error" for milk cow inventory estimates over the past 10 quarters is 1.3 percent. 

This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final October-December estimate will not be above or

below the current estimate of 9.14 million head by more than 1.3 percent, or about 119,000 head. 

Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 2.3 percent, or about 210,000 head (the 90

percent confidence level).
Milk Production Agricultural Statistics Board

March 1999 6 NASS, USDA

Reliability of October-December Milk Estimates 1

Item

Root

Mean

Square

Error

90%

Confidence

Level

Difference Between

First and Latest

Estimates

Quarters

Average Smallest Largest

First

Above

Latest

First

Below

Latest

Percent Percent Million Pounds Million Pounds Million Pounds Million Pounds Number Number

Milk

 Production 0.6 1.1 428 183 1 385 10 0

Percent Percent 1,000 Head 1,000 Head 1,000 Head 1,000 Head Number Number

All Milk

 Cows 1.3 2.3 210 102 2 195 9 1

1 Based on records for the past 10 October-December quarters.
The next "Milk Production" report will be released at 3 p.m. ET on April 15, 1999.

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