Pot 1-2  (3-99)
 
 
 
Potato
Stocks
 
National
Agricultural
Statistics
Service
 
 
 
 
USDA
Washington, D.C.
 
 
Released March 12, 1999, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS),
Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture.  For information
on "Potato Stocks" call Arvin Budge at (202) 720-4285, office hours 7:30 a.m. to
4:00 p.m. ET.
 
 
               March Potato Stocks Down 1 Percent
 
The 15 major potato States held 174 million cwt of potatoes on March 1, 1999,
down 1 percent from last year and 8 percent below March 1997.  Storage
accounted for 41 percent of 1998 fall production, down 2 percent from a year
ago.   Disappearance, at 251 million cwt, is up 6 percent from last year but 1
percent below the record high from the 1996 crop.  Processor usage in the 8
major States, totaled 129 million cwt, up 9 percent from last year.  Shrinkage
and loss to date gained 17 percent from a year ago.
 
 
 
 
 
 
         Fall Potatoes:  Production and Stocks, 15 Major States, 1989-98
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
   Crop  :          :         :         :         :         :         :
   Year  :Production:  Dec 1  :  Jan 1  :  Feb 1  :  Mar 1  :  Apr 1  :  May 1
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                 :                              1,000 Cwt
                                     :
1989     : 316,097    202,050   173,550   144,290   116,600    84,320    50,675
1990     : 344,200    225,500   194,460   162,850   134,470   101,150    63,040
1991     : 363,541    242,070   211,005   178,515   145,820   108,865    69,110
1992     : 368,516    246,820   215,990   184,560   152,795   115,785    75,040
1993     : 376,954    249,410   217,300   185,490   153,435   115,170    72,860
1994     : 410,839    273,290   238,560   202,470   169,570   129,825    87,600
1995     : 394,785    256,710   223,550   189,360   156,020   115,855    75,870
1996     : 443,704    295,100   261,320   226,080   189,210   147,585   103,210
1997     : 413,513    278,830   246,550   212,562   175,870   134,190    92,840
   1998     : 424,897    282,300   246,220   211,100   174,100
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
          Potatoes:  Quantity Used for Processing, 8 States, 1995-98 1/
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
     State and     :        :        :        :       :       :       :
     Crop Year     : Dec 1  : Jan 1  : Feb 1  : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 : Season
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                         :                         1,000 Cwt
                                          :
                       ID & OR-Malheur Co :
  1995             : 27,310   35,040   43,260   51,530  59,060  66,690   89,250
  1996             : 31,060   38,210   45,420   54,640  62,570  70,720   96,970
  1997             : 26,880   33,950   41,050   49,470  57,620  65,750   91,450
        1998             : 27,510   34,700   42,670   51,210
                                          :
                       ME 2/              :
  1995             :  1,455    1,850    2,430    2,850   3,435   3,965    5,725
  1996             :  1,790    2,115    2,820    3,280   3,820   4,420    6,495
  1997             :  1,250    1,720    2,265    2,735   3,355   3,900    5,870
        1998             :  1,180    1,710    2,260    2,983
                                          :
                       WA & OR - Other    :
  1995             : 30,000   35,170   39,460   45,280  51,730  57,360   70,250
  1996             : 31,670   36,660   41,700   48,740  55,570  62,320   80,970
  1997             : 28,580   33,990   38,690   46,400  53,720  59,780   76,930
        1998             : 33,460   38,895   45,650   53,290
                                          :
                       Oth Sts 3/         :
  1995             : 12,650   15,630   18,815   21,985  25,510  28,610   33,580
  1996             : 13,720   17,000   20,645   24,085  27,650  30,830   43,100
  1997             : 11,645   13,960   17,115   19,905  23,515  26,365   37,842
        1998             : 11,020   13,785   17,510   21,185
                                          :
                       Total              :
  1995             : 71,415   87,690  103,965  121,645 139,735 156,625  198,805
  1996             : 78,240   93,985  110,585  130,745 149,610 168,290  227,535
  1997             : 68,355   83,620   99,120  118,510 138,210 155,795  212,092
        1998             : 73,170   89,090  108,090  128,668
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/  Total quantity received and used for processing regardless of the State in
    which the potatoes were produced.  Amount excludes quantities used for
               potato chips in ME, MI, MN, ND, and WI.
             2/  Includes Maine grown potatoes only.
                     3/  MI, MN, ND, and WI.
 
 
 
 
            Fall Potatoes:  Production and Stocks on March 1, 1998-99
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
               :          Crop of 1997          :         Crop of 1998
               :----------------------------------------------------------------
     State     :          :  Stocks  :    %     :          :  Stocks  :    %
               :   Prod   :  Mar 1,  :    of    :   Prod   :  Mar 1,  :   of
               :          :   1998   :   Prod   :          : 1999  1/ :  Prod
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
               : ---- 1,000 Cwt ---    Percent    ---- 1,000 Cwt ---    Percent
                                        :
CA             :   4,200      1,800       43        3,708      1,600      43
CO             :  24,993     12,800       51       25,360     11,800      47
ID             : 140,314     69,500       50      139,650     67,500      48
ME             :  19,080     10,300       54       18,060      8,450      47
MI             :  14,250      3,800       27       14,725      3,900      26
MN             :  20,440      8,800       43       21,170      8,900      42
MT             :   3,328      2,350       71        3,180      2,650      83
NE 2/          :   7,761      2,430                 8,175      2,500
NY             :   7,150        800       11        7,290        900      12
ND             :  22,000      9,300       42       28,670     11,800      41
    OH 2/          :   1,170                            1,200
OR             :  27,319     13,000       48       26,229     13,000      50
PA             :   3,173        890       28        3,360        600      18
WA             :  88,160     29,500       33       93,225     29,500      32
WI             :  30,175     10,600       35       30,895     11,000      36
                                        :
15 States      : 413,513    175,870       43      424,897    174,100      41
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/  Stocks include processor holdings and seed to plant 1999 crop.  Seed usage
                  in 1998 totaled 30.0 million cwt.
   2/  Combined to prevent disclosure of individual operations.
 
 
 
 
NOTE:  Stocks are defined as the quantity (whether sold or not) remaining in
storage for all purposes and uses, including seed potatoes not yet moved and
shrinkage, waste, and other losses that occur after the date of each report.
Sales of fall potatoes for all purposes for the past 5 years averaged 90.8
percent of the total fall production.  Shrinkage, loss and home use account for
the remaining 9.2 percent.  Most seed for use the following year is still on
hand March 1, but remains part of stocks until moved or planted.
 
 
 
 
            Potatoes:  Production, Sold, Not Sold, and Kept for Seed,
                             United States, 1993-98
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          :                     Fall Potatoes                     : Amount Used
          :-------------------------------------------------------:  for Seed
   Crop   :             :         :   Sold   :         : Not Sold : All Seasons
   Year   : Production  :  Sold   : as % of  :Not Sold : as % of  :  Following
          :             :         :   Prod   :         :   Prod   :    year
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          :   ---- 1,000 Cwt ----   Percent   1,000 Cwt  Percent     1,000 Cwt
          :
1993      :   387,885     353,052     91.0     34,833       9.0       29,076
1994      :   422,345     380,818     90.2     41,527       9.8       29,428
1995      :   404,852     370,679     91.6     34,173       8.4       30,561
1996      :   454,388     408,247     89.8     46,141      10.2       29,138
1997      :   423,190     387,089     91.5     36,101       8.5       29,975
1998      :   434,368
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 
 
 
 
        Fall Potatoes:  Production, March 1 Stocks, and Farm Disposition,
                 15 States and Fall Season,  1995-98 Crop Years
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
       :     :          :          :          :        Farm Disposition
       :     :          :          :  Total   :---------------------------------
 State :Crop :          :  Stocks  :   Used   :     Where Grown      :
       :Year :Production:  Mar 1   :   For    :----------------------:
       :     :          :          :   Seed   :Seed, Feed,:Shrinkage :   Sold
       :     :          :          :          : Home Use  : and Loss :
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
       :     :                            1,000 Cwt
       :     :
CA     :     :
       : 1995:    5,330      2,300       242          10         460      4,860
       : 1996:    4,600      2,200       200          23         472      4,105
       : 1997:    4,200      1,800       206          20         340      3,840
       : 1998:    3,708      1,600
CO     :     :
       : 1995:   23,808     11,200     1,950       1,285       2,048     20,475
       : 1996:   29,175     15,500     1,925       1,485       3,975     23,715
       : 1997:   24,993     12,800     1,895       1,340       2,773     20,880
       : 1998:   25,360     11,800
ID     :     :
       : 1995:  132,657     62,500     8,700       1,785       8,920    121,952
       : 1996:  142,800     70,000     8,600       1,500      10,100    131,200
       : 1997:  140,314     69,500     8,700       1,130       9,258    129,926
       : 1998:  139,650     67,500
ME     :     :
       : 1995:   17,160      8,500     1,716         420       1,025     15,715
       : 1996:   21,175     11,200     1,584         395       1,800     18,980
       : 1997:   19,080     10,300     1,430         275       1,760     17,045
       : 1998:   18,060      8,450
MI     :     :
       : 1995:   16,350      4,800       962         168         690     15,492
       : 1996:   13,800      3,300       768         300       1,300     12,200
       : 1997:   14,250      3,800       864         200       1,300     12,750
       : 1998:   14,725      3,900
MN     :     :
       : 1995:   20,790      8,700     1,573         346       1,757     18,687
       : 1996:   24,600     11,000     1,348         445       4,158     19,997
       : 1997:   20,440      8,800     1,640         450       1,717     18,273
       : 1998:   21,170      8,900
MT     :     :
       : 1995:    2,940      2,500       239         128         147      2,665
       : 1996:    3,213      2,700       239         137         221      2,855
       : 1997:    3,328      2,350       244         152         208      2,968
       : 1998:    3,180      2,650
NE 1/  :     :
       : 1995:    3,680      1,420       292         187         284      3,209
       : 1996:    4,402      1,930       451         169         439      3,794
       : 1997:    7,761      2,430       462         203         380      7,178
       : 1998:    8,175      2,500
NY     :     :
       : 1995:    7,425        900       594         155         290      6,980
       : 1996:    7,420        800       583         127         341      6,952
       : 1997:    7,150        800       607         139         315      6,696
       : 1998:    7,290        900
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                     --continued
 
 
 
 
        Fall Potatoes:  Production, March 1 Stocks, and Farm Disposition,
                 15 States and Fall Season,  1995-98 (continued)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
       :     :          :          :          :        Farm Disposition
       :     :          :          :  Total   :---------------------------------
 State :Crop :          :  Stocks  :   Used   :     Where Grown      :
       :Year :Production:  Mar 1   :   For    :----------------------:
       :     :          :          :   Seed   :Seed, Feed,:Shrinkage :   Sold
       :     :          :          :          : Home Use  : and Loss :
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
       :     :                            1,000 Cwt
       :     :
ND     :     :
       : 1995:   25,410      9,200      2,211        280       2,800     22,330
       : 1996:   28,820     12,400      2,188        360       5,270     23,190
       : 1997:   22,000      9,300      2,142        355       2,266     19,379
       : 1998:   28,670     11,800
OH 1/  :     :
       : 1995:    1,404                   107          4          10      1,390
       : 1996:    1,275                   109          5          35      1,235
       : 1997:    1,170                   105          8          37      1,125
       : 1998:    1,200
OR     :     :
       : 1995:   24,788      9,900      1,475        148       1,450     23,190
       : 1996:   30,124     16,000      1,345        305       2,560     27,259
       : 1997:   27,319     13,000      1,405        195       1,555     25,569
       : 1998:   26,229     13,000
PA     :     :
       : 1995:    4,080        800        314         20         102      3,958
       : 1996:    4,160        880        266         81         320      3,759
       : 1997:    3,173        890        276         78         176      2,919
       : 1998:    3,360        600
WA     :     :
       : 1995:   80,850     25,000      3,912        300       6,400     74,150
       : 1996:   94,990     30,000      3,648        300       6,800     87,890
       : 1997:   88,160     29,500      3,840        300       6,400     81,460
       : 1998:   93,225     29,500
WI     :     :
       : 1995:   28,113      8,300      1,806        298       1,350     26,465
       : 1996:   33,150     11,300      1,710        320       1,425     31,405
       : 1997:   30,175     10,600      1,764        275       1,448     28,452
       : 1998:   30,895     11,000
15 Sts :     :
       : 1995:  394,785    156,020     26,093      5,534      27,733    361,518
       : 1996:  443,704    189,210     24,964      5,952      39,216    398,536
       : 1997:  413,513    175,870     25,580      5,120      29,933    378,460
       : 1998:  424,897    174,100
23 Fall:     :
       : 1995:  404,852                26,813      5,569      28,604    370,679
       : 1996:  454,388                25,608      6,054      40,087    408,247
       : 1997:  423,190                26,224      5,260      30,841    387,089
       : 1998:  434,368
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/  Combined to prevent disclosure of individual operations.
 
 
 
 
                Fall Potatoes:  Farm Marketings, Selected States,
                             1995-97 Marketing Years
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 State : Crop  :Jul :Aug :Sep :Oct :Nov :Dec :Jan :Feb :Mar :Apr :May :Jun :Jul
       : Year  :    :    :    :    :    :    :    :    :    :    :    :    :
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
       :       :                            Percent
       :       :
CO     :       :
       :  1995 :             4    8   10   10   11   10   10   12   10    9    6
       :  1996 :             4    7    9    9   10    9   10   11   10   11   10
       :  1997 :        1    4    8    9   11   10    8   11   11   10   10    7
ID     :       :
       :  1995 :        4   16   17    6    7    6    6    9    8    8    7    6
       :  1996 :        6   14   18    7    5    6    6    9    8    8    6    7
       :  1997 :        6   15   12    8    8    8    6    7    7    9    7    7
ME     :       :
       :  1995 :        2    5    7    9    9   11   11   17   18    7    4
       :  1996 :        1    8    7    7    8   10    9   14   16    9   11
       :  1997 :        1    6    7    8    8   10    9   15   17   10    9
MI     :       :
       :  1995 :        5   11   15   13   13   11    6    9   11    6
       :  1996 :  1     9   10   11   11    9   12   11   10    9    5    2
       :  1997 :  3     9   10    8   11   11   11   12   11    8    6
MN     :       :
       :  1995 :        2   30   26    6    4    5    5    6    8    6    2
       :  1996 :        6   22   19   11    5    5    7    8    8    5    4
       :  1997 :        5   22   25   11    7    5    6    7    7    5
NY     :       :
       :  1995 :        6   15   15   17   16   12    8    6    4    1
       :  1996 :        7   17   17   14   14   10    8    7    4    2
       :  1997 :        8   15   15   16   15   13    9    5    3    1
ND     :       :
       :  1995 :        3   14   16    9   10    9    9    8    9   11    2
       :  1996 :        4   12   22    8    7    7    8   10    7    6    7    2
       :  1997 :        1   12   16   13    8   12    9    9    8    6    5    1
OR     :       :
       :  1995 :  1    12   16   25    7    6    6    5    5    7    7    1    2
       :  1996 :  1    14   16   26    7    5    5    5    4    6    5    5    1
       :  1997 :  1     9   14   30    8    6    5    6    6    5    6    3    1
PA     :       :
       :  1995 :       18   18   18   13   13    9    5    3    2    1
       :  1996 :  1    12   15   13   11    9   10    8    9    6    4    2
       :  1997 :  1    13   13   12   12   12   10    8    7    8    3    1
WA     :       :
       :  1995 :       16   13   32    7    3    4    4    7    5    4    4    1
       :  1996 :       17   11   31    8    3    4    4    5    5    5    5    2
       :  1997 :       12   14   31    7    4    4    4    6    6    6    5    1
WI     :       :
       :  1995 :  1     9   17   13   12    7   10    9   11    8    3
       :  1996 :  1     6   20   14   10    7    8   11    9    7    4    3
       :  1997 :  1     7   17   14   10    9    8   11   10    7    4    2
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 
 
 
 
 
Potato Stocks Down 1 Percent
 
March 1, 1999 potato stocks totaled 174 million cwt, down 1 percent from a year
ago and 8 percent below two years ago.  Storage accounted for 41 percent of
1998 fall production, down 2 percentage points from a year ago.
 
Disappearance from the start of harvest to March 1 totaled 251 million cwt, up
6 percent from last year but 1 percent below the record high two years ago.
February disappearance totaled a record high 37.0 million cwt, 1 percent above
last year and up slightly from two years ago.  Shrink and loss to date of 25.2
million cwt was up 17 percent from last year but 3 percent below two years ago.
 
Processing of 1998 crop potatoes so far this season totaled 129 million cwt, up
9 percent from the 1997 crop but 2 percent below the 1996 crop.  February
processing used a record 20.6 million cwt of raw potatoes, up 6 percent from
last year and 2 percent above the previous record two years ago.
 
Eastern States stored 9.9 million cwt of potatoes on March 1, 1999, down 17
percent from a year ago and 23 percent below two years ago.  Maine's holdings
were down 18 percent from a year ago and Pennsylvania's stocks were off 33
percent.  New York's stocks were up 13 percent from last year.
 
Central States accounted for 38.1 million cwt of potato stocks this March, up 9
percent from 1998 but 5 percent below two years ago.  North Dakota's stocks
were up 27 percent and Wisconsin was up 4 percent.  Michigan was up 3 percent
and Minnesota was 1 percent above last year.
 
Western States held 126 million cwt of potatoes in storage on March 1, 1999,
down 2 percent from last year and 8 percent below March 1997.  Idaho's stocks
were down 3 percent and accounted for 54 percent of the Western total.
California's stocks were down 11 percent and Colorado dropped 8 percent.
Washington and Oregon potato stocks were equal to last year.  Montana's storage
was up 13 percent.
 
 
 
 
             Reliability of March 1 Stocks Estimates
 
The "Root Mean Square Error" for the March 1 stocks estimate is 3.9 percent.
This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current estimate of 174 million
cwt will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 3.9 percent or
approximately 6.8 million cwt.  Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence
level) that the difference will not exceed 6.7 percent or approximately 11.7
million cwt.
 
The 10-year (1989-98) record of the differences between the March 1 stocks
estimates and the final estimates averaged 5.5 million cwt, ranging from 0.4
million to 13.1 million cwt.  During the 10-year period, the March 1 estimate
has been below the final 9 out of 10 years.
 
 
 
 
            Fall Potato Stocks:  Preliminary and Final March Stocks,
                             United States, 1988-98
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
   Crop   :      Preliminary      :        % of         :         Final
   Year   :        Stocks         :        Final        :        Stocks
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          :       1,000 Cwt               Percent               1,000 Cwt
          :
1988      :        118,960                  95.6                 124,485
1989      :        115,780                  99.3                 116,600
1990      :        126,030                  93.7                 134,470
1991      :        146,180                 100.2                 145,820
1992      :        139,665                  91.4                 152,795
1993      :        146,080                  95.2                 153,435
1994      :        163,305                  96.3                 169,570
1995      :        152,255                  97.6                 156,020
1996      :        184,565                  97.5                 189,210
1997      :        170,325                  96.8                 175,870
1998      :        174,100
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 
 
 
 
The next "Potato Stocks" report will be released at 3 p.m. ET on April 14, 1999.
 
 
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