HDR1012000110080512951500POTATO STOCKS                                          
HDR2012000110080512951500PSTK HIGHLIGHTS                                        
Released May 12, 1995, by the Agricultural Statistics Board.                    
                                                                                
                           Potato Stocks Up 10 Percent                          
                                                                                
Potato stocks totaled 81.5 million cwt on May 1, 1995, up 10 percent from last  
year and 9 percent above two years ago.  May stocks include considerably more   
seed than would normally be on hand because of late planting in many States.    
Disappearance for the season is a record high 319 million cwt of potatoes,      
6 percent above last year and 9 percent above 1993.  Shrink and loss of         
30.9 million cwt was 8 percent above a year ago.  Processors used a record high 
152 million cwt of potatoes, up 8 percent for the season.  April processing     
totaled 18.4 million cwt of potatoes, up 7 percent from a year earlier.         
                                                                                
For information call Arvin Budge at (202) 720-4285.  Office hours are 8:00 a.m. 
to 4:30 p.m. ET.                                                                
                                                                                
Pot 1-2 (5-95)                                                                  
                                                                                
HDR2012000110080512951500FALL POTATOES:PROD & STKS, 15 MAJ STS, '85-94          
         Fall Potatoes:  Production and Stocks, 15 Major States, 1985-94        
                                                                                
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   Crop  :          :         :         :         :         :         :         
                                                                                
   Year  :Production:  Dec 1  :  Jan 1  :  Feb 1  :  Mar 1  :  Apr 1  :  May 1  
                                                                                
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         :                              1,000 Cwt                               
                                                                                
         :                                                                      
                                                                                
1985     : 343,984    235,475   202,800   171,510   138,720   104,540   65,380  
                                                                                
1986     : 307,928    209,435   180,915   154,545   128,720    95,090   59,790  
                                                                                
1987     : 335,607    225,890   196,760   167,325   138,800   105,905   70,030  
                                                                                
1988     : 305,623    206,420   177,750   151,050   124,485    92,585   59,355  
                                                                                
1989     : 316,097    202,050   173,550   144,290   116,600    84,320   50,675  
                                                                                
1990     : 344,200    225,500   194,460   162,850   134,470   101,150   63,040  
                                                                                
1991     : 363,541    242,070   211,005   178,515   145,820   108,865   69,110  
                                                                                
1992     : 368,516    246,820   215,990   184,560   152,795   115,785   75,040  
                                                                                
1993     : 375,004    249,710   217,800   186,090   154,135   115,970   73,860  
                                                                                
1994     : 400,385    263,630   229,350   196,005   163,305   123,285   81,495  
                                                                                
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HDR2012000110080512951500POTATOES:QUANT. USED FOR PRCSNG, 8 STS '92-94          
        Potatoes:  Quantity Used for Processing, Eight States, 1992-94 1/       
                                                                                
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     State and     :        :        :       :        :       :       :         
                                                                                
     Crop Year     : Dec 1  : Jan 1  : Feb 1 : Mar 1  : Apr 1 : May 1 : Season  
                                                                                
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                   :                         1,000 Cwt                          
                                                                                
ID & OR-Malheur Co :                                                            
                                                                                
  1992             : 22,180   29,080  35,710   42,800   50,090  57,090   80,570 
  1993             : 24,090   30,540  37,150   44,720   53,070  61,440   85,780 
  1994             : 26,620   34,230  42,330   49,890   57,990  66,680          
                                                                                
                   :                                                            
                                                                                
ME 2/              :                                                            
                                                                                
  1992             :  1,195    1,630   2,205    2,720    3,390   4,020    5,055 
  1993             :  1,350    1,720   2,210    2,505    2,890   3,275    4,555 
  1994             :  1,510    1,840   2,275    2,535    2,975   3,330          
                                                                                
                   :                                                            
                                                                                
WA & OR-Other      :                                                            
                                                                                
  1992             : 26,840   31,550  35,950   41,670   46,530  51,630   63,510 
  1993             : 28,260   33,350  39,010   45,020   51,290  57,180   70,690 
  1994             : 28,690   33,500  39,120   46,070   52,900  59,550          
                                                                                
                   :                                                            
Oth Sts 3/         :                                                            
                                                                                
  1992             :  7,140    9,220  11,265   13,305   15,550  17,555   25,070 
  1993             :  7,605    9,515  11,605   13,720   16,080  18,705   25,690 
  1994             :  8,790   12,045  14,605   17,095   19,840  22,585          
                                                                                
                   :                                                            
                                                                                
Total              :                                                            
                                                                                
  1992             : 57,355   71,480  85,130  100,495  115,560 130,295  174,205 
  1993             : 61,305   75,125  89,975  105,965  123,330 140,600  186,715 
  1994             : 65,610   81,615  98,330  115,590  133,705 152,145          
                                                                                
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1/  Total quantity received and used for processing regardless of the State in  
                                                                                
    which the potatoes were produced.  Amount excludes quantities used for      
                                                                                
    potato chips in ME, MI, MN, ND, and WI.                                     
                                                                                
2/  Includes Maine grown potatoes only.  3/  MI, MN, ND, and WI.                
                                                                                
HDR2012000110080512951500FALL POTATOES:PROD&STKS ON MAY 1, '94-95               
             Fall Potatoes:  Production and Stocks on May 1, 1994-95            
                                                                                
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                :         Crop of 1993          :         Crop of 1994          
                                                                                
                :---------------------------------------------------------------
      State     :           :  Stocks   :   %   :           :  Stocks   :   %   
                                                                                
                :   Prod    :  May 1,   :  of   :   Prod    :  May 1,   :  of   
                                                                                
                :           :   1994    : Prod  :           :   1995    : Prod  
                                                                                
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                :  ---- 1,000 Cwt ---    Percent   ---- 1,000 Cwt ---    Percent
                :                                                               
                                                                                
CA              :    4,800      1,200      25        4,400      1,100      25   
                                                                                
CO              :   25,270      6,100      24       25,795      6,000      23   
                                                                                
ID              :  126,192     35,000      28      134,340     34,500      26   
                                                                                
ME              :   19,890      3,500      18       17,250      2,800      16   
                                                                                
MI              :   11,780        700       6       12,180      1,200      10   
                                                                                
MN              :   12,650      2,300      18       17,755      4,200      24   
                                                                                
MT              :    2,700        160       6        3,200        350      11   
                                                                                
NE              :    3,008        100       3        3,888        300       8   
                                                                                
NY              :                                                               
                                                                                
  Long Island   :    1,643         1/                1,617         1/           
                                                                                
  Upstate       :    6,050      1/200                6,188      1/210           
                                                                                
ND              :   21,090      2,300      11       28,200      4,700      17   
                                                                                
OH              :    1,140         1/                1,348         1/           
                                                                                
OR              :   23,103      5,400      23       25,784      6,800      26   
                                                                                
PA              :    4,600        100       2        3,780        135       4   
                                                                                
WA              :   88,500     13,500      15       88,920     17,000      19   
                                                                                
WI              :   22,588      3,300      15       25,740      2,200       9   
                                                                                
                :                                                               
                                                                                
Total 15 State  :  375,004     73,860      20      400,385     81,495      20   
                                                                                
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1/  Combined to prevent possible disclosure of individual operations.           
HDR2012000110080512951500PSTKS NARRATIVES                                       
                           Potato Stocks Up 10 Percent                          
                                                                                
May 1, 1995, stocks totaled 81.5 million cwt, up 10 percent from last year and  
9 percent above two years ago.  Stocks made up 20 percent of fall potato        
production in the 15 storage States, the same as a year ago.  Disappearance was 
6 percent more than last year.  Processor usage was up 8 percent.  Shrinkage and
loss was 8 percent above a year ago.                                            
                                                                                
Processing continued to move potatoes at a record high pace, accounting for     
152 million cwt of potatoes from the 1994 crop, up 8 percent from the same      
period last year and 17 percent above two years ago.  March processor usage was 
18.4 million cwt, up 7 percent from a year ago and 25 percent above two years   
ago.                                                                            
                                                                                
Disappearance from the start of harvest through April totaled 319 million cwt of
potatoes, up 6 percent from last year and 9 percent above two years ago.        
Shrinkage and loss was 30.9 million cwt, 8 percent above the 28.7 million cwt   
lost last year but 3 percent below the losses of two years ago.                 
                                                                                
Eastern States stored 3.14 million cwt of potatoes on May 1, 1995, down         
17 percent from last year and 36 percent below two years ago.  Maine's stocks   
were down 20 percent.  Pennsylvania and New York are virtually finished shipping
for the season.                                                                 
                                                                                
Central States held 12.6 million cwt of potatoes in storage on May 1, 1995.     
This is 45 percent above last year and 11 percent higher than two years ago.    
Wisconsin's stocks are off 33 percent but each of the other Central States held 
more than a year ago.  North Dakota's May stocks were more than double last     
year, partly because of late planting and slow movement of seed.  Minnesota's   
stocks were up 83 percent and Michigan's storage was up 71 percent from last    
year.  Nebraska's season is nearly finished.                                    
                                                                                
Western States potato stocks totaled 65.8 million cwt in six States, up         
7 percent from last year and 12 percent above two years ago.  Idaho's stocks of 
34.5 million cwt, were down 1 percent from a year ago, and made up 52 percent of
the Western total.  Colorado was off 2 percent from last year.  Washington's    
stocks of 17.0 million cwt and Oregon's stocks of 6.8 million cwt, were each up 
26 percent.  Montana's stocks at the end of their seed season were more than    
twice the May 1 level a year ago.  California's stocks were off 8 percent.      
                                                                                
                  Changes in Summer and Fall Potato Estimates                   
                                                                                
Acreage, yield, and production estimates of "summer" and "fall" potatoes will be
combined into the "fall" season for Michigan and Minnesota beginning in 1995.   
Eliminating "summer" potatoes in these two States will shift about 20,000 acres 
from the "summer" season to the "fall" season estimates.   The first estimates  
of summer acreage, published in the "Acreage" report issued June 30, will       
exclude these two States.  Stocks reports, starting in December 1995, will      
include potatoes from these former "summer" areas.  Additionally, potato        
estimates for Long Island and Upstate New York will be combined in an "All" New 
York estimate.  The first estimate of fall potato acreage is included in the    
July "Crop Production" report.  These changes will provide estimates that more  
accurately reflect current marketing and production patterns.                   
                                                                                
                                                                                
HDR2012000110080512951500RELIABILITY OF MAY 1 STKS ESTI. NARRATIVE              
                      Reliability of May 1 Stocks Estimates                     
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
The "Root Mean Square Error" for the May 1 stocks estimate is 8.4 percent.  This
means that the chances are 2 out of 3 that the current estimate of 81.5 million 
cwt will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 8.4 percent or   
approximately 6.8 million cwt.  Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence  
level) that the difference will not exceed 14.5 percent or approximately        
11.8 million cwt.                                                               
                                                                                
                                                                                
The 10-year 1985-94 record of the differences between the May 1 stocks estimate 
and the final estimates average 4.0 million cwt, ranging from 0.6 million cwt to
11.5 million cwt.  During this 10-year period, the May 1 estimate has been below
the final estimate 8 out of 10 years.                                           
                                                                                
                                                                                
HDR2012000110080512951500PREL. & FNL MAY STKS, US, '84-94                       
             Fall Potato Stocks:  Preliminary and Final May Stocks,             
                                                                                
                             United States, 1984-94                             
                                                                                
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   Crop   :      Preliminary      :        % of         :         Final         
                                                                                
   Year   :        Stocks         :        Final        :       Stocks 1/       
                                                                                
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          :       1,000 Cwt               Percent               1,000 Cwt       
                                                                                
          :                                                                     
                                                                                
1984      :        51,575                   98.3                 52,465         
                                                                                
1985      :        63,380                   96.9                 65,380         
                                                                                
1986      :        57,040                   95.4                 59,790         
                                                                                
1987      :        71,640                  102.3                 70,030         
                                                                                
1988      :        54,390                   91.6                 59,355         
                                                                                
1989      :        50,125                   98.9                 50,675         
                                                                                
1990      :        54,400                   86.3                 63,040         
                                                                                
1991      :        70,020                  101.3                 69,110         
                                                                                
1992      :        63,550                   84.7                 75,040         
                                                                                
1993      :        68,060                   92.1                 73,860         
                                                                                
1994      :        81,495                                                       
                                                                                
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1/  As reported in the September "Potatoes" annual report.                      
                                                                                
                                                                                
Note:  Stocks are defined as the quantity (whether sold or not) remaining       
                                                                                
       in storage for all purposes and uses, including seed potatoes not yet    
                                                                                
       moved and shrinkage, waste, and other losses that occur after the        
                                                                                
       date of each report.  Sales of fall potatoes for all purposes for        
                                                                                
       the past 5 years averaged 90.5 percent of the total fall production      
                                                                                
       Shrinkage, loss and home use account for the remaining 9.5 percent.      
                                                                                
       Most seed for use the following year is on hand but remains as           
                                                                                
       part of stocks until planted.                                            
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
HDR2012000110080512951500NXT RLSE DATE & EEO STMNT                              
The next "Potato Stocks" report will be released at 3 p.m. ET on                
December 15, 1995.                                                              
                                                                                
                             ***********************                            
                                                                                
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