HDR1012000110080116961500Potato Stocks                                          
HDR2012000110080116961500Potato Stocks Nar.& Tables                             
                                                                                
Released January 16, 1996, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service      
(NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture.  For     
information on "Potato Stocks" call Arvin Budge at (202) 720-4285, office hours 
8:00 a.m. to 4:30 p.m. ET.  For assistance with general agricultural statistics,
information about NASS, its products or services, contact the NASS Information  
Hotline at 1-800-727-9540 or E-mail: NASS@AG.GOV.                               
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                    Potato Stocks Down 8 Percent                                
                                                                                
January 1, 1996 potato stocks totaled 219 million cwt in the 15 storage States, 
down 8 percent from a year earlier but 1 percent above two years ago.           
Disappearance so far this season was up 1 percent, helped by a 6 percent gain in
processing.  Shrink and loss of 20.1 million cwt was 5 percent below last year a
slightly below two years ago.                                                   
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
Pot 1-2 (01-96)                                                                 
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
         Fall Potatoes:  Production and Stocks, 15 Major States, 1986-95        
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   Crop  :          :         :         :         :         :         :         
   Year  :Production:  Dec 1  :  Jan 1  :  Feb 1  :  Mar 1  :  Apr 1  :   May   
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         :                              1,000 Cwt                               
         :                                                                      
1986     : 307,928    209,435   180,915   154,545   128,720    95,090   59,790  
1987     : 335,607    225,890   196,760   167,325   138,800   105,905   70,030  
1988     : 305,623    206,420   177,750   151,050   124,485    92,585   59,355  
1989     : 316,097    202,050   173,550   144,290   116,600    84,320   50,675  
1990     : 344,200    225,500   194,460   162,850   134,470   101,150   63,040  
1991     : 363,541    242,070   211,005   178,515   145,820   108,865   69,110  
1992     : 368,516    246,820   215,990   184,560   152,795   115,785   75,040  
1993     : 375,004    249,710   217,800   186,090   154,135   115,970   73,860  
1994     : 409,009    271,890   237,560   201,870   168,770   128,825   87,500  
1995     : 391,816    252,080   218,970                                         
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        Potatoes:  Quantity Used for Processing, Eight States, 1993-95 1/       
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     State and     :        :        :       :        :       :       :         
     Crop Year     : Dec 1  : Jan 1  : Feb 1 : Mar 1  : Apr 1 :  May  : Season  
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                   :                         1,000 Cwt                          
                   :                                                            
ID & OR-Malheur Co :                                                            
  1993             : 24,090   30,540  37,150   44,720   53,070  61,440   85,780 
  1994             : 26,620   34,230  42,330   49,890   57,990  66,680   90,300 
  1995             : 27,310   35,040                                            
                   :                                                            
ME 2/              :                                                            
  1993             :  1,350    1,720   2,210    2,505    2,890   3,275    4,555 
  1994             :  1,505    1,840   2,265    2,540    2,985   3,330    4,770 
  1995             :  1,335    1,685                                            
                   :                                                            
WA & OR-Other      :                                                            
  1993             : 28,260   33,350  39,010   45,020   51,290  57,180   70,690 
  1994             : 28,670   33,480  39,120   46,070   52,940  59,540   76,780 
  1995             : 30,000   35,170                                            
                   :                                                            
Oth Sts 3/         :                                                            
  1993             :  7,605    9,515  11,605   13,720   16,080  18,705   25,690 
  1994             :  9,725   13,110  15,630   18,260   21,115  24,060   32,260 
  1995             : 12,360   15,330                                            
                   :                                                            
Total              :                                                            
  1993             : 61,305   75,125  89,975  105,965  123,330 140,600  186,715 
  1994             : 66,520   82,660  99,345  116,760  135,030 153,610  204,110 
  1995             : 71,005   87,225                                            
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1/  Total quantity received and used for processing regardless of the State in  
    which the potatoes were produced.  Amount excludes quantities used for      
    potato chips in ME, MI, MN, ND, and WI.                                     
2/  Includes Maine grown potatoes only.                                         
3/  MI, MN, ND, and WI.                                                         
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
           Fall Potatoes:  Production and Stocks on January 1, 1995-96          
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               :       Crop of 1994       :            Crop of 1995             
               :----------------------------------------------------------------
               :         : Stocks  :  %   :         : Stocks  :  Stocks  :Jan % 
     State     :  Prod   : Jan 1,  :  of  :  Prod   : Dec 1,  :  Jan 1,  :  of  
               :         :  1995   : Prod :         : 1995 1/ :   1996   : Prod 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
               : --- 1,000 Cwt ---   Pct    -------- 1,000 Cwt --------    Pct  
               :                                                                
CA             :   5,600     3,700    66      5,330     3,800     3,500     66  
CO             :  25,795    16,300    63     23,808    18,200    16,100     68  
ID             : 138,801    89,500    64    131,274    94,000    83,500     64  
ME             :  18,375    11,400    62     17,160    13,800    12,400     72  
MI             :  12,180     6,100    50     16,500     9,000     7,700     47  
MN             :  17,755    10,800    61     20,790    13,500    11,700     56  
MT             :   3,200     3,000    94      2,940     2,800     2,700     92  
NE             :   3,996     2,100    53      3,680     2,530     2,220     60  
NY             :   7,805     3,000    38      7,695     4,100     3,200     42  
ND             :  28,200    16,200    57     25,410    17,000    14,000     55  
OH             :   1,348       260    19      1,404       350       150     11  
OR             :  27,514    17,600    59     23,760    16,100    14,100     59  
PA             :   3,780     1,600     7      4,080     2,400     1,900     47  
WA             :  88,920    43,000    20     80,850    39,000    33,000     41  
WI             :  25,740    13,000     6     27,135    15,500    12,800     47  
               :                                                                
US             : 409,009   237,560    58    391,816   252,080   218,970     56  
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1/  Revised.                                                                    
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
           Fall Potatoes:  Stocks by Type as Percent of Total Stocks,           
                       11 Major States, January 1, 1995-96                      
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       :                              Potato Types                              
       :------------------------------------------------------------------------
       :         Reds          :        Whites         :        Russets         
 State :------------------------------------------------------------------------
       :  Jan  :  Dec  :  Jan  :  Jan  :  Dec  :  Jan  :  Jan  :  Dec  :  Jan   
       : 1995  :1995 1/: 1996  : 1995  :1995 1/: 1996  : 1995  :1995 1/:  1996  
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
       :                                Percent                                 
       :                                                                        
CO     :   4       6       6                              96      94       94   
ID     :                           5      10      10      95      90       90   
ME     :   1       3       3      82      69      66      17      28       31   
MI     :           2              75      78      75      25      20       25   
MN     :  14      14      12      17      16      20      69      70       68   
NY     :   5       5       5      93      93      93       2       2        2   
ND     :  13      16      16      43      36      32      44      48       52   
OR     :           1       1       1       3       3      99      96       96   
PA     :   3       3       3      97      97      97                            
WA     :   1       2       1       3       5       3      96      93       96   
WI     :   3       3       2      20      27      27      77      70       71   
       :                                                                        
US     :   2       3       3      16      19      18      82      78       79   
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1/  Revised.                                                                    
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                    Potato Stocks Down 8 Percent                                
                                                                                
The 15 major potato States held 219 million cwt of potatoes on January 1, 1996, 
down 8 percent from a year earlier but 1 percent above 1994.  Storage accounted 
56 percent of 1995 fall production down 2 points from last year.  Stocks by type
were 3 percent red, 18 percent white, and 79 percent russet.                    
                                                                                
Disappearance from the start of harvest to January 1 was a record 173 million cw
of potatoes, up 1 percent from the same period in 1995.  Disappearance in Decemb
1995 was 33.1 million cwt, down 4 percent from last year but 4 percent above two
years ago.  Shrink and loss to date was estimated at 20.1 million cwt, down     
5  percent from last year.                                                      
                                                                                
Processing swelled 6 percent to 87.2 million cwt so far this season and was     
16 percent above two years ago.  In December, processors claimed 16.2 cwt of    
potatoes, fractionally above a year ago and 17 percent above two years ago.     
                                                                                
Eastern States stored 17.5 million cwt of potatoes on January 1, 1996, up 9 perc
from a year ago and 6 percent above 1994.  Pennsylvania's stocks were up        
19 percent, Maine's holdings were up 9 percent, while New York stocks rose      
7 percent.                                                                      
                                                                                
Central States accounted for 48.6 million cwt of potato stocks this January,    
slightly above 1995 and 21 percent above 1994.  Minnesota  stocks gained 8 perce
including potatoes from former summer areas that were not counted last year.    
Michigan stocks jumped 26 percent, also including some from former summer areas.
North Dakota was off 14 percent and Wisconsin slipped 2 percent.  Nebraska stock
increased 6 percent as Ohio's storage shrank 42 percent.                        
                                                                                
Western States held 153 million cwt of potatoes in storage on January 1, 1996, o
12 percent from a year previous and 5 percent below two years ago.  Each of the 
Western storage States are below  a year ago.  Idaho is down 7 percent, Oregon f
20 percent and Washington dropped 23 percent.  Colorado stocks slipped 1 percent
below last January.  These four States accounted for two-thirds of U.S. Potato  
stocks and are down 12 percent from last year.  California stored 5 percent fewe
potatoes than a year earlier and Montana held 10 percent less.                  
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                    Reliability of January 1 Stocks Estimates                   
                                                                                
The "Root Mean Square Error" for the January 1 stocks estimate is               
2.9 percent.  This means the chances are 2 out of 3 that the current estimate   
of 219 million cwt will not be above or below the final estimate by more        
than 2.9 percent or approximately 6.4 million cwt.  Chances are 9 out of        
10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 5.1 percent
or approximately 11.2 million cwt.                                              
                                                                                
The 10-year (1986-95) record of the differences between the January 1           
stocks estimates and the final estimates averaged 5.2 million cwt, ranging      
ranging from o.1 million to 14.3 million cwt.  During the 10-year period,       
the January 1 estimate has been below the final estimate each year.             
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
        Fall Potato Stocks:  Preliminary and Final January Stocks,              
                             United States, 1985-95                             
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   Crop   :      Preliminary      :        % of         :         Final         
   Year   :        Stocks         :        Final        :       Stocks 1/       
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          :       1,000 Cwt               Percent               1,000 Cwt       
          :                                                                     
1985      :        201,300                  99.3                 202,800        
1986      :        176,600                  97.6                 180,915        
1987      :        195,880                  99.6                 196,760        
1988      :        171,560                  96.5                 177,750        
1989      :        173,400                  99.9                 173,550        
1990      :        186,160                  95.7                 194,460        
1991      :        210,935                 100.0                 211,005        
1992      :        201,690                  93.4                 215,990        
1993      :        209,270                  96.1                 217,800        
1994      :        229,350                  96.5                 237,560        
1995      :        218,970                                                      
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1/  As reported in the September "Potato" annual report.                        
                                                                                
                                                                                
Note:  Stocks are defined as the quantity (whether sold or not) remaining       
       in storage for all purposes and uses, including seed potatoes not yet    
       moved and shrinkage, waste, and other losses that occur after the        
       date of each report.  Sales of fall potatoes for all purposes for        
       the past 5 years averaged 91.0 percent of the total fall production      
       Shrinkage, loss and home use account for the remaining 9.0 percent.      
       Most seed for use the following year is on hand but remains as           
       part of stocks until planted.                                            
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
The next "Potato Stocks" report will be released at 3 p.m. ET on                
February 14, 1996.                                                              
                                                                                
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employment opportunity employer.                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
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