HDR1012000160030814971500Milk Production                                        
                                                                                
Milk                                                                            
Production                                                                      
                                                                                
National                                                                        
Agricultural                                                                    
Statistics                                                                      
Service                                                                         
                                                                                
USDA                                                                            
Washington, D.C.                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
Released August 14, 1997, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service       
(NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture.  For     
information on "Milk Production" call James Hand at (202) 690-3236, office      
hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET.                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
               July Milk Production Up 4.8 Percent                              
                                                                                
Milk production in the 20 major States during July totaled 11.5 billion         
pounds, up 4.8 percent from production in these same States in July 1996.       
June revised production, at 11.4 billion pounds was up 4.4 percent from June    
1996.                                                                           
                                                                                
                                                                                
Production per cow in the 20 major States averaged 1,480 pounds for July,       
80 pounds above July 1996.                                                      
                                                                                
                                                                                
The number of cows on farms in the 20 major States was 7.75 million head,       
68,000 head less than July 1996 but 9,000 head more than June 1997.             
                                                                                
         Milk Cows and Production:  By Quarter, United States, 1996-97          
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
        :    Milk Cows  1/   :  Milk per Cow  2/ :     Milk Production 2/       
        :---------------------------------------------------------------------- 
Quarter :          :         :         :         :         :         :          
        :  1996    :  1997   :  1996   :  1997   :  1996   :  1997   :  Change  
        :          :         :         :         :         :         :from 1996 
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
        :    ---- 1,000 ----         Pounds          Million Pounds    Percent  
        :                                                                       
Jan-Mar :    9,397     9,267     4,156     4,200    39,053    38,922      -0.3  
Apr-Jun :    9,369     9,253     4,231     4,391    39,638    40,630       2.5  
Jul-Sep :    9,338               4,035              37,674                      
Oct-Dec :    9,300               4,083              37,966                      
        :                                                                       
Annual  :    9,351              16,505             154,331                      
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
1/  Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh.                          
2/  Excludes milk sucked by calves.                                             
                                                                                
                                                                                
        Milk Cows and Production:  By Month, 20 Selected States, 1996-97        
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
        :    Milk Cows  1/   :  Milk per Cow  2/ :     Milk Production 2/       
        :---------------------------------------------------------------------- 
 Month  :          :         :         :         :         :         :          
        :   1996   :  1997   :   1996  :   1997  :   1996  :   1997  : Change   
        :          :         :         :         :         :         :from 1996 
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
        :    ---- 1,000 ----         Pounds          Million Pounds    Percent  
        :                                                                       
Jan     :    7,846     7,757     1,415     1,439    11,103    11,163       0.5  
Feb     :    7,828     7,743     1,348     1,331    10,549    10,309      -2.3  
Mar     :    7,822     7,736     1,469     1,501    11,487    11,611       1.1  
Apr     :    7,818     7,731     1,441     1,481    11,265    11,452       1.7  
May     :    7,816     7,733     1,479     1,532    11,560    11,847       2.5  
Jun     :    7,818     7,738     1,398     1,475    10,926    11,410       4.4  
Jul     :    7,815     7,747     1,400     1,480    10,944    11,464       4.8  
Aug     :    7,802               1,382              10,786                      
Sep     :    7,795               1,342              10,459                      
Oct     :    7,788               1,391              10,831                      
Nov     :    7,775               1,350              10,499                      
Dec     :    7,765               1,418              11,013                      
        :                                                                       
Annual  :    7,807              16,833             131,422                      
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
1/  Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh.                          
2/  Excludes milk sucked by calves.                                             
                                                                                
                                                                                
               Estimated Milk Production, United States, 1996-97                
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
        :           by Month                      Cumulative                    
        :---------------------------------------------------------------------- 
 Month  :          :         :         :         :         :                    
        :   1996   :   1997  :% Change :  1996   :  1997   :    Change          
        :          :         :from 1996:         :         :   from 1996        
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
        :    Million Pounds                Million Pounds    Percent            
        :                                                                       
Jan     :   13,085    13,133       0.4    13,085    13,133       0.4            
Feb     :   12,431    12,129      -2.4    25,516    25,262      -1.0            
Mar     :   13,537    13,660       0.9    39,053    38,922      -0.3            
Apr     :   13,230    13,409       1.4    52,283    52,331       0.1            
May     :   13,576    13,871       2.2    65,859    66,202       0.5            
Jun     :   12,832    13,350       4.0    78,691    79,552       1.1            
Jul     :   12,809    13,418       4.8    91,500    92,970       1.6            
Aug     :   12,624                       104,124                                
Sep     :   12,241                       116,365                                
Oct     :   12,714                       129,079                                
Nov     :   12,324                       141,403                                
Dec     :   12,928                       154,331                                
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
              Milk Cows and Production:  By State, July 1996-97                 
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
        :    Milk Cows  1/   :  Milk per Cow  2/ :     Milk Production 2/       
        :---------------------------------------------------------------------- 
 State  :          :         :         :         :         :         :          
        :   1996   :   1997  :   1996  :  1997   :  1996   :  1997   : Change   
        :          :         :         :         :         :         :from 1996 
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
        :    ---- 1,000 ----         Pounds           Million Pounds   Percent  
        :                                                                       
AZ      :      122       129     1,445     1,635       176       211      19.9  
CA      :    1,264     1,296     1,725     1,820     2,180     2,359       8.2  
FL      :      156       161     1,145     1,190       179       192       7.3  
ID      :      258       271     1,650     1,710       426       463       8.7  
IL      :      154       147     1,240     1,320       191       194       1.6  
IN      :      140       140     1,270     1,325       178       186       4.5  
IA      :      250       246     1,290     1,390       323       342       5.9  
KY      :      151       146       955     1,025       144       150       4.2  
MI      :      323       310     1,405     1,500       454       465       2.4  
MN      :      600       585     1,315     1,360       789       796       0.9  
MO      :      177       173     1,085     1,155       192       200       4.2  
NM      :      196       201     1,605     1,710       315       344       9.2  
NY      :      703       698     1,385     1,440       974     1,005       3.2  
OH      :      285       281     1,245     1,335       355       375       5.6  
PA      :      643       639     1,375     1,410       884       901       1.9  
TX      :      399       389     1,140     1,190       455       463       1.8  
VT      :      157       157     1,400     1,420       220       223       1.4  
VA      :      126       121     1,125     1,230       142       149       4.9  
WA      :      263       265     1,735     1,770       456       469       2.9  
WI      :    1,448     1,392     1,320     1,420     1,911     1,977       3.5  
        :                                                                       
20 State:                                                                       
 Total  :    7,815     7,747     1,400     1,480    10,944    11,464       4.8  
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
1/  Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh.                          
2/  Excludes milk sucked by calves.                                             
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
           Milk Cows and Production:  By State, June 1996-97 1/                 
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
        :    Milk Cows  2/   :  Milk per Cow  3/ :     Milk Production 3/       
        :---------------------------------------------------------------------- 
 State  :          :         :         :         :         :         :          
        :   1996   :   1997  :   1996  :   1997  :   1996  :   1997  :  Change  
        :          :         :         :         :         :         :from 1996 
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
        :    ---- 1,000 ----         Pounds           Million Pounds   Percent  
        :                                                                       
AZ      :      120       128     1,700     1,750       204       224       9.8  
CA      :    1,263     1,290     1,695     1,800     2,141     2,322       8.5  
FL      :      156       161     1,235     1,285       193       207       7.3  
ID      :      255       269     1,570     1,660       400       447      11.8  
IL      :      154       148     1,240     1,320       191       195       2.1  
IN      :      140       140     1,270     1,330       178       186       4.5  
IA      :      249       246     1,285     1,375       320       338       5.6  
KY      :      153       145       940     1,040       144       151       4.9  
MI      :      322       310     1,385     1,490       446       462       3.6  
MN      :      600       585     1,335     1,370       801       801       0.0  
MO      :      180       173     1,050     1,185       189       205       8.5  
NM      :      194       200     1,630     1,695       316       339       7.3  
NY      :      704       698     1,385     1,430       975       998       2.4  
OH      :      285       281     1,240     1,325       353       372       5.4  
PA      :      643       639     1,360     1,405       874       898       2.7  
TX      :      400       389     1,230     1,210       492       471      -4.3  
VT      :      157       157     1,425     1,425       224       224       0.0  
VA      :      126       122     1,105     1,240       139       151       8.6  
WA      :      262       265     1,705     1,720       447       456       2.0  
WI      :    1,455     1,392     1,305     1,410     1,899     1,963       3.4  
        :                                                                       
20 State:                                                                       
 Total  :    7,818     7,738     1,398     1,475    10,926    11,410       4.4  
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
1/  1997 revised.  2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh.        
3/  Excludes milk sucked by calves.                                             
                                                                                
                       Reliability Statement                                    
                                                                                
Survey Procedures:  Primary data used to determine these estimates were         
                    obtained from a sample of producers.  Individual States     
maintain a list of all known milk producers and information on the size of      
their herd.  States use all known sources of producers to ensure that their     
lists are as complete as possible. Generally, all large producers and a sample  
of small producers are included in the survey.  Questionnaires are mailed to    
producers near the end of the month to obtain data for the first day of the     
month.  Additional reports are obtained by telephone, as needed, to supplement  
the mail response.                                                              
                                                                                
                                                                                
Estimation Procedures:  State offices prepare these estimates using survey      
                        indications, historic trends, and any available         
administrative data. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the             
Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness.                               
                                                                                
                                                                                
Revision Policy:  Milk production, rate per cow, and number of cows are         
                  subject to revision the following month for monthly States    
or the following quarter for the quarterly States.  Normally, Federal Market    
Order sales are the main basis for revisions. However, data for all orders are  
not available in time for this revision.  Estimates are again subject to        
revisions in February each year based on additional administrative data.  In    
the event that additional changes are necessary, a third revision is possible   
in February the following year.  Estimates are again reviewed after data from   
the five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions are made after  
that date.                                                                      
                                                                                
                                                                                
Reliability:  Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in the   
              sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability.     
Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions,       
duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data.    
The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly.  They are minimized    
through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a     
careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness.         
                                                                                
To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report,  
the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items on the next page. The  
"Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance     
and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates.  The   
"Root Mean Square Error" for milk cow inventory estimates over the past 10      
quarters is 1.1 percent.  This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the       
final April-June estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of    
9.25 million head by more than 1.1 percent, or about 102,000 head.  Chances     
are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 2.1 percent, or about       
194,000 head (the 90 percent confidence level).                                 
                Reliability of April-June Milk Estimates 1/                     
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
             :        :              :    Difference Between    :               
             :        :              :      First and Final     :    Number of  
             :  Root  :     90%      :         Estimates  1/    :    Quarters   
    Item     :  Mean  :  Confidence  :------------------------------------------
             : Square :    Level     :        :         :       : First : First 
             :  Error :              : Average: Smallest:Largest: Above : Below 
             :        :              :        :         :       : Final : Final 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             :   - Percent -     ---------- Mil Lbs. ----------     - Number -  
             :                                                                  
Milk         :   0.5      1.0     406     172       22      426      8       2  
  Production :                                                                  
             :                  --------- 1,000 Head ----------                 
                                                                                
             :                                                                  
All Milk     :   1.1      2.1     194      95        8      188     10       0  
  Cows       :                                                                  
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/  Based on records for the past 10 April-June quarters.                       
                                                                                
                                                                                
The next Milk Production report will be released at 3 P.M. ET on                
September 15, 1997.                                                             
                                                                                
                                                                                
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                 USDA to Hold Data Users Meeting                                
                      Holiday Inn Mart Plaza                                    
                        Chicago, Illinois                                       
                         October 20, 1997                                       
                                                                                
The National Agricultural Statistics Service will                               
be organizing an open forum for Data Users.  The                                
purpose will be to provide updates on pending                                   
changes in the USDA statistical and information                                 
programs including the status of the 1997 Census of                             
Agriculture, and to seek comments and input from                                
data users.  Other agencies to be represented will                              
include the Agricultural Marketing Service, the                                 
Economic Research Service, the Foreign Agricultural                             
Service, and the World Agricultural Outlook Board.                              
                                                                                
                                                                                
For registration details, see the NASS home page                                
http://www.usda.gov/nass/ or contact Fred Vogel                                 
(NASS) (202) 720-3896 or fvogel@nass.usda.gov