HDR1012000160030313961500MILK PRODUCTION                                        
Released March 13, 1996, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS),
Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture.  For information 
on "Milk Production" call Kevin Hintzman at (202) 720-4448, office hours 8:00   
a.m. to 4:30 p.m. ET.  For assistance with general agricultural statistics,     
information about NASS, its products or services, contact the NASS Information  
Hotline at 1-800-727-9540 or E-mail: NASS@NASS.USDA.GOV.                        
                                                                                
                                                                                
                    February Milk Production up 3 Percent                       
                                                                                
Milk production in the 22 major States during February totaled 10.8 billion     
pounds, 3 percent above production in these same States in February 1995. The   
increase is due to February 1996 having an extra day because it is leap year.   
On a daily basis, milk production declined during February 1996 versus a year   
earlier. January revised production, at 11.3 billion pounds was slightly less   
than January 1995.                                                              
                                                                                
Production per cow in the 22 major States averaged 1,343 pounds for February,   
48 pounds above February 1995. On an average daily basis, production per cow    
for February was virtually unchanged from a year ago.                           
                                                                                
The number of cows on farms in the 22 major States was 8.01 million head,       
38,000 head less than February 1995 and 14,000 head less than January 1996.     
                                                                                
During the October-December period, the 22 major States produced 32.7 billion   
pounds of milk, 86.3 percent of the U.S. production.  If the remaining 28 States
not surveyed monthly followed the same pattern as the 22 States, the U.S.       
production would be 12.5 billion pounds for February 1996.                      
                                                                                
                                                                                
                       Correction this issue:                                   
                                                                                
U.S. milk cow totals, 1994 Quarterly Revisions for Apr.- Jun. and Oct.- Dec.    
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
Da 1-1 (3-96)                                                                   
                                                                                
                                                                                
         Milk Cows and Production:  By Quarter, United States,  1995-96         
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
        :    Milk Cows  1/   :  Milk per Cow  2/ :     Milk Production 2/       
        :---------------------------------------------------------------------- 
Quarter :          :         :         :         :         :         : 1996 as  
        :   1995   :  1996   :  1995   :  1996   :  1995   :  1996   :   % of   
        :          :         :         :         :         :         :   1995   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
        :    ---- 1,000 ----        Pounds         Million Pounds      Percent  
        :                                                                       
Jan-Mar :    9,470               4,112              38,941                      
Apr-Jun :    9,477               4,276              40,520                      
Jul-Sep :    9,465               4,049              38,325                      
Oct-Dec :    9,432               4,014              37,857                      
        :                                                                       
Annual  :    9,461              16,451             155,644                      
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
1/  Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh.                          
2/  Excludes milk sucked by calves.                                             
                                                                                
                                                                                
        Milk Cows and Production:  By Month, 22 Selected States, 1995-96        
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
        :    Milk Cows  1/   :  Milk per Cow  2/ :     Milk Production 2/       
        :---------------------------------------------------------------------- 
 Month  :          :         :         :         :         :         : 1996 as  
        :   1995   :  1996   :  1995   :  1996   :  1995   :  1996   :   % of   
        :          :         :         :         :         :         :   1995   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
        :    ---- 1,000 ----        Pounds         Million Pounds      Percent  
        :                                                                       
Jan     :    8,046     8,026     1,404     1,406    11,296    11,285       100  
Feb     :    8,050     8,012     1,295     1,343    10,423    10,762       103  
Mar     :    8,061               1,453              11,709                      
Apr     :    8,058               1,427              11,501                      
May     :    8,056               1,484              11,959                      
Jun     :    8,066               1,421              11,465                      
Jul     :    8,062               1,414              11,397                      
Aug     :    8,062               1,375              11,086                      
Sep     :    8,061               1,331              10,729                      
Oct     :    8,050               1,364              10,978                      
Nov     :    8,043               1,320              10,616                      
Dec     :    8,034               1,380              11,088                      
        :                                                                       
Annual  :    8,054              16,668             134,247                      
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
1/  Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh.                          
2/  Excludes milk sucked by calves.                                             
                                                                                
             Milk Cows and Production:  By State,  February 1995-96             
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
        :    Milk Cows  1/   :  Milk per Cow  2/ :     Milk Production 2/       
        :---------------------------------------------------------------------- 
 State  :          :         :         :         :         :         : 1996 as  
        :   1995   :  1996   :  1995   :  1996   :  1995   :  1996   :   % of   
        :          :         :         :         :         :         :   1995   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
        :    ---- 1,000 ----        Pounds         Million Pounds      Percent  
        :                                                                       
CA      :    1,251     1,260     1,545     1,600     1,933     2,016       104  
FL      :      166       155     1,290     1,350       214       209        98  
ID      :      221       246     1,360     1,370       301       337       112  
IL      :      163       160     1,260     1,310       205       210       102  
IN      :      145       140     1,200     1,260       174       176       101  
IA      :      251       250     1,245     1,180       312       295        95  
KY      :      163       156       965       985       157       154        98  
MD      :       92        91     1,185     1,210       109       110       101  
MI      :      326       327     1,315     1,365       429       446       104  
MN      :      600       600     1,245     1,305       747       783       105  
MO      :      193       183     1,115     1,160       215       212        99  
NM      :      179       193     1,555     1,500       278       290       104  
NY      :      707       700     1,250     1,340       884       938       106  
NC      :       89        85     1,340     1,370       119       116        97  
OH      :      289       285     1,260     1,245       364       355        98  
PA      :      641       645     1,280     1,345       820       868       106  
TN      :      130       119     1,100     1,140       143       136        95  
TX      :      399       400     1,300     1,345       519       538       104  
VT      :      156       157     1,250     1,275       195       200       103  
VA      :      129       127     1,215     1,210       157       154        98  
WA      :      262       263     1,540     1,535       403       404       100  
WI      :    1,498     1,470     1,165     1,235     1,745     1,815       104  
        :                                                                       
22 State:                                                                       
 Total  :    8,050     8,012     1,295     1,343    10,423    10,762       103  
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
1/  Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh.                          
2/  Excludes milk sucked by calves.                                             
                                                                                
            Milk Cows and Production:  By State,  January 1995-96 1/            
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
        :    Milk Cows  2/   :  Milk per Cow  3/ :     Milk Production 3/       
        :---------------------------------------------------------------------- 
 State  :          :         :         :         :         :         : 1996 as  
        :   1995   :   1996  :  1995   :  1996   :  1995   :  1996   :   % of   
        :          :         :         :         :         :         :   1995   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
        :    ---- 1,000 ----        Pounds         Million Pounds      Percent  
        :                                                                       
CA      :    1,250     1,260     1,685     1,670     2,106     2,104       100  
FL      :      168       155     1,375     1,405       231       218        94  
ID      :      220       245     1,500     1,490       330       365       111  
IL      :      163       160     1,270     1,350       207       216       104  
IN      :      145       140     1,280     1,290       186       181        97  
IA      :      251       250     1,365     1,260       343       315        92  
KY      :      163       157     1,075     1,045       175       164        94  
MD      :       92        91     1,280     1,265       118       115        97  
MI      :      326       327     1,435     1,425       468       466       100  
MN      :      600       600     1,345     1,370       807       822       102  
MO      :      195       185     1,210     1,180       236       218        92  
NM      :      174       193     1,695     1,570       295       303       103  
NY      :      708       700     1,360     1,405       963       984       102  
NC      :       89        86     1,440     1,400       128       120        94  
OH      :      290       285     1,350     1,325       392       378        96  
PA      :      639       648     1,390     1,405       888       910       102  
TN      :      130       120     1,200     1,190       156       143        92  
TX      :      399       400     1,370     1,380       547       552       101  
VT      :      156       158     1,335     1,360       208       215       103  
VA      :      129       128     1,350     1,240       174       159        91  
WA      :      259       263     1,700     1,650       440       434        99  
WI      :    1,500     1,475     1,265     1,290     1,898     1,903       100  
        :                                                                       
22 State:                                                                       
 Total  :    8,046     8,026     1,404     1,406    11,296    11,285       100  
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
1/  1996 revised.  2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh.        
3/  Excludes milk sucked by calves.                                             
                                                                                
                     February 1996 Correction                                   
                                                                                
    Milk Cows and Production:  Number and Total Milk Production                 
                   by Quarter, United States, 1994                              
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
       :            Milk Cows 1/            :          Milk Production 2/       
 State :----------------------------------------------------------------------  
       :Jan-Mar :Apr-Jun :Jul-Sep : Oct-Dec :Jan-Mar :Apr-Jun :Jul-Sep :Oct-Dec 
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
       :  ---------- 1,000 Head ----------   --------  Million Pounds --------  
US     :  9,496    9,510*   9,510    9,484*  37,613   39,907   38,209   37,935  
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
1/  Quarterly average includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh.        
2/  Excludes milk sucked by calves. * Corrections for February 1996.            
                                                                                
                                                                                
                      Reliability Statement                                     
                                                                                
Survey Procedures:  Primary data used to determine these estimates were         
                    obtained from a sample of producers. Individual States      
maintain a list of all known milk producers and information on the size of      
their herd.  States use all known sources of producers to ensure that their     
lists are as complete as possible.  Generally, all large producers and a        
sample of small producers are included in the survey.  Questionnaires are mailed
to producers near the end of the month to obtain data for the first             
day of the month.  Additional reports are obtained by telephone, as needed,     
to supplement the mail response.                                                
                                                                                
Estimation Procedures:   State offices prepare these estimates using survey     
                         indications, historic trends, and any available        
administrative data.  Individual State estimates are reviewed by the            
Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness.                               
                                                                                
Revision Policy:  Milk production, rate per cow, and number of cows are         
                  subject to revision the following month for monthly States or 
the following quarter for the quarterly States.  Normally, Federal Market Order 
sales are the main basis for revisions. However, data for all orders are not    
available in time for this revision.  Estimates are again subject to revisions  
in February each year based on additional administrative data.  In the event    
that additional changes are necessary, a third revision is possible in February 
the following year.  Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five-year 
Census of Agriculture, conducted by the Department of Commerce, are available.  
No revisions are made after that date.                                          
                                                                                
Reliability:  Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in       
              the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. 
Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions,       
duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The
effects of these errors cannot be measured directly.  They are minimized through
rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful     
review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness.                 
                                                                                
To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report,  
the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the table below.    
The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance 
and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates.        
The "Root Mean Square Error" for milk cow inventory estimates over the past     
10 quarters is 1.3 percent.  This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the    
final October-December estimate will not be above or below the current estimate 
of 9.43 million head by more than 1.3 percent, or about 123,000 head.  Chances  
are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 2.3 percent, or about       
217,000 head (the 90 percent confidence level).                                 
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                Reliability of October-December Milk Estimates 1/               
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
             :        :              :    Difference Between    :               
             :        :              :      First and Final     :    Number of  
             :  Root  :     90%      :         Estimates  1/    :    Quarters   
    Item     :  Mean  :  Confidence  :------------------------------------------
             : Square :    Level     :        :         :       : First : First 
             :  Error :              : Average: Smallest:Largest: Above : Below 
             :        :              :        :         :       : Final : Final 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             :   - Percent -     ---------- Mil Lbs. ----------     - Number -  
             :                                                                  
Milk         :    0.8    1.5     568       229       22      565    10       0  
  Production :                                                                  
             :                  --------- 1,000 Head ----------                 
                                                                                
             :                                                                  
All Milk     :    1.3    2.3     217       107       18      195    10       0  
  Cows       :                                                                  
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/  Based on records for the past 10 October-December quarters.                 
                                                                                
                                                                                
The next "Milk Production" report will be released at 3 p.m. ET on April 16,    
1996.                                                                           
                                                                                
                                                                                
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