Pot 1-2  (4-99)
 
 
 
Potato
Stocks
 
National
Agricultural
Statistics
Service
 
 
 
 
USDA
Washington, D.C.
 
 
 
Released April 14, 1999, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS),
Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture.  For information
on "Potato Stocks" call Arvin Budge at (202) 720-4285, office hours 7:30 a.m. to
4:00 p.m. ET.
 
 
 
 
               April Potato Stocks Down 2 Percent
 
The 15 major potato States held 131 million cwt of potatoes on April 1, 1999,
down 2 percent from last year and 11 percent below April 1997.  Storage
accounted for 31 percent of 1998 fall production, 1 percent less than a year
ago.   Disappearance, at 294 million cwt, is up 5 percent from last year but 1
percent below the record high from the 1996 crop.  Processor usage in the eight
major States, totaled 149 million cwt, up 8 percent from last year.
 
 
 
 
         Fall Potatoes:  Production and Stocks, 15 Major States, 1989-98
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
   Crop  :          :         :         :         :         :         :
   Year  :Production:  Dec 1  :  Jan 1  :  Feb 1  :  Mar 1  :  Apr 1  :  May 1
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
         :                              1,000 Cwt
         :
1989     : 316,097    202,050   173,550   144,290   116,600    84,320    50,675
1990     : 344,200    225,500   194,460   162,850   134,470   101,150    63,040
1991     : 363,541    242,070   211,005   178,515   145,820   108,865    69,110
1992     : 368,516    246,820   215,990   184,560   152,795   115,785    75,040
1993     : 376,954    249,410   217,300   185,490   153,435   115,170    72,860
1994     : 410,839    273,290   238,560   202,470   169,570   129,825    87,600
1995     : 394,785    256,710   223,550   189,360   156,020   115,855    75,870
1996     : 443,704    295,100   261,320   226,080   189,210   147,585   103,210
1997     : 413,513    278,830   246,550   212,562   175,870   134,190    92,840
1998     : 424,897    282,300   246,220   211,100   174,100   130,890
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 
 
 
 
          Potatoes:  Quantity Used for Processing, 8 States, 1995-98 1/
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
     State and     :        :        :        :       :       :       :
     Crop Year     : Dec 1  : Jan 1  : Feb 1  : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 : Season
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                   :                         1,000 Cwt
                   :
ID & OR-Malheur Co :
  1995             : 27,310   35,040   43,260   51,530  59,060  66,690   89,250
  1996             : 31,060   38,210   45,420   54,640  62,570  70,720   96,970
  1997             : 26,880   33,950   41,050   49,470  57,620  65,750   91,450
  1998             : 27,510   34,700   42,670   51,210  60,040
                   :
ME 2/              :
  1995             :  1,455    1,850    2,430    2,850   3,435   3,965    5,725
  1996             :  1,790    2,115    2,820    3,280   3,820   4,420    6,495
  1997             :  1,250    1,720    2,265    2,735   3,355   3,900    5,870
  1998             :  1,180    1,710    2,260    2,983   3,595
                   :
WA & OR - Other    :
  1995             : 30,000   35,170   39,460   45,280  51,730  57,360   70,250
  1996             : 31,670   36,660   41,700   48,740  55,570  62,320   80,970
  1997             : 28,580   33,990   38,690   46,400  53,720  59,780   76,930
  1998             : 33,460   38,895   45,650   53,290  60,930
                   :
Oth Sts 3/         :
  1995             : 12,650   15,630   18,815   21,985  25,510  28,610   33,580
  1996             : 13,720   17,000   20,645   24,085  27,650  30,830   43,100
  1997             : 11,645   13,960   17,115   19,905  23,515  26,365   37,842
  1998             : 11,020   13,785   17,510   21,185  24,485
                   :
Total              :
  1995             : 71,415   87,690  103,965  121,645 139,735 156,625  198,805
  1996             : 78,240   93,985  110,585  130,745 149,610 168,290  227,535
  1997             : 68,355   83,620   99,120  118,510 138,210 155,795  212,092
  1998             : 73,170   89,090  108,090  128,668 149,050
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/  Total quantity received and used for processing regardless of the State in
    which the potatoes were produced.  Amount excludes quantities used for
    potato chips in ME, MI, MN, ND, and WI.
2/  Includes Maine grown potatoes only.
3/  MI, MN, ND, and WI.
 
 
 
 
            Fall Potatoes:  Production and Stocks on April 1, 1998-99
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
               :          Crop of 1997          :         Crop of 1998
               :----------------------------------------------------------------
     State     :          :  Stocks  :    %     :          :  Stocks  :    %
               :   Prod   :  Apr 1,  :    of    :   Prod   :  Apr 1,  :   of
               :          :   1998   :   Prod   :          : 1999  1/ :  Prod
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
               : ---- 1,000 Cwt ---    Percent    ---- 1,000 Cwt ---    Percent
               :
CA             :   4,200      1,500       36        3,708      1,200      32
CO             :  24,993     10,500       42       25,360      9,100      36
ID             : 140,314     56,000       40      139,650     53,500      38
ME             :  19,080      7,400       39       18,060      6,000      33
MI             :  14,250      2,300       16       14,725      2,200      15
MN             :  20,440      6,800       33       21,170      6,700      32
MT             :   3,328        700       21        3,180      1,780      56
NE 2/          :   7,761      1,210                 8,175      1,140
NY             :   7,150        400        6        7,290        350       5
ND             :  22,000      7,000       32       28,670      9,500      33
OH 2/          :   1,170                            1,200
OR             :  27,319      9,800       36       26,229     10,500      40
PA             :   3,173        480       15        3,360        420      13
WA             :  88,160     22,500       26       93,225     21,500      23
WI             :  30,175      7,600       25       30,895      7,000      23
               :
15 States      : 413,513    134,190       32      424,897    130,890      31
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/  Stocks include processor holdings and seed to plant 1999 potatoes;  1998
    crop seed usage totaled 30.0 million cwt.
2/  Combined to prevent disclosure of individual operations.
 
 
 
 
NOTE:  Stocks are defined as the quantity (whether sold or not) remaining in
storage for all purposes and uses, including seed potatoes not yet moved and
shrinkage, waste, and other losses that occur after the date of each report.
Sales of fall potatoes for all purposes for the past five years averaged 90.8
percent of the total fall production.  Shrinkage, loss and home use account for
the remaining 9.2 percent.  Most seed for use the following year is still on
hand April 1, but remains  part of stocks until moved or planted.
 
 
 
 
            Potatoes:  Production, Sold, Not Sold, and Kept for Seed,
                             United States, 1993-98
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          :                     Fall Potatoes                     : Amount Used
          :-------------------------------------------------------:  for Seed
   Crop   :             :         :   Sold   :         : Not Sold : All Seasons
   Year   : Production  :  Sold   : as % of  :Not Sold : as % of  :  Following
          :             :         :   Prod   :         :   Prod   :    year
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          :   ---- 1,000 Cwt ----   Percent   1,000 Cwt  Percent     1,000 Cwt
          :
1993      :   387,885     353,052     91.0     34,833       9.0       29,076
1994      :   422,345     380,818     90.2     41,527       9.8       29,428
1995      :   404,852     370,679     91.6     34,173       8.4       30,561
1996      :   454,388     408,247     89.8     46,141      10.2       29,138
1997      :   423,190     387,089     91.5     36,101       8.5       29,975
1998      :   434,368
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 
 
 
 
        Fall Potatoes:  Production, April 1 Stocks, and Farm Disposition,
                 15 States and Fall Season,  1995-98 Crop Years
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
       :     :          :          :          :        Farm Disposition
       :     :          :          :  Total   :---------------------------------
 State :Crop :          :  Stocks  :   Used   :     Where Grown      :
       :Year :Production:  Apr 1   :   For    :----------------------:
       :     :          :          :   Seed   :Seed, Feed,:Shrinkage :   Sold
       :     :          :          :          : Home Use  : and Loss :
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
       :     :                            1,000 Cwt
       :     :
CA     :     :
       : 1995:   5,330      1,700       242          10         460      4,860
       : 1996:   4,600      1,700       200          23         472      4,105
       : 1997:   4,200      1,500       206          20         340      3,840
       : 1998:   3,708      1,200
CO     :     :
       : 1995:  23,808      9,100     1,950       1,285       2,048     20,475
       : 1996:  29,175     12,900     1,925       1,485       3,975     23,715
       : 1997:  24,993     10,500     1,895       1,340       2,773     20,880
       : 1998:  25,360      9,100
ID     :     :
       : 1995: 132,657     49,500     8,700       1,785       8,920    121,952
       : 1996: 142,800     56,000     8,600       1,500      10,100    131,200
       : 1997: 140,314     56,000     8,700       1,130       9,258    129,926
       : 1998: 139,650     53,500
ME     :     :
       : 1995:  17,160      5,700     1,716         420       1,025     15,715
       : 1996:  21,175      8,400     1,584         395       1,800     18,980
       : 1997:  19,080      7,400     1,430         275       1,760     17,045
       : 1998:  18,060      6,000
MI     :     :
       : 1995:  16,350      2,700       962         168         690     15,492
       : 1996:  13,800      1,900       768         300       1,300     12,200
       : 1997:  14,250      2,300       864         200       1,300     12,750
       : 1998:  14,725      2,200
MN     :     :
       : 1995:  20,790      6,800     1,573         346       1,757     18,687
       : 1996:  24,600      8,500     1,348         445       4,158     19,997
       : 1997:  20,440      6,800     1,640         450       1,717     18,273
       : 1998:  21,170      6,700
MT     :     :
       : 1995:   2,940      1,750       239         128         147      2,665
       : 1996:   3,213      1,900       239         137         221      2,855
       : 1997:   3,328        700       244         152         208      2,968
       : 1998:   3,180      1,780
NE 1/  :     :
       : 1995:   3,680        705       292         187         284      3,209
       : 1996:   4,402      1,025       451         169         439      3,794
       : 1997:   7,761      1,210       462         203         380      7,178
       : 1998:   8,175      1,140
NY     :     :
       : 1995:   7,425        400       594         155         290      6,980
       : 1996:   7,420        350       583         127         341      6,952
       : 1997:   7,150        400       607         139         315      6,696
       : 1998:   7,290        350
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                     --continued
 
 
 
 
        Fall Potatoes:  Production, April 1 Stocks, and Farm Disposition,
                 15 States and Fall Season,  1995-98 (continued)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
       :     :          :          :          :        Farm Disposition
       :     :          :          :  Total   :---------------------------------
 State :Crop :          :  Stocks  :   Used   :     Where Grown      :
       :Year :Production:  Apr 1   :   For    :----------------------:
       :     :          :          :   Seed   :Seed, Feed,:Shrinkage :   Sold
       :     :          :          :          : Home Use  : and Loss :
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
       :     :                            1,000 Cwt
       :     :
ND     :     :
       : 1995:  25,410      7,000      2,211        280       2,800     22,330
       : 1996:  28,820     10,000      2,188        360       5,270     23,190
       : 1997:  22,000      7,000      2,142        355       2,266     19,379
       : 1998:  28,670      9,500
OH 1/  :     :
       : 1995:   1,404                   107          4          10      1,390
       : 1996:   1,275                   109          5          35      1,235
       : 1997:   1,170                   105          8          37      1,125
       : 1998:   1,200
OR     :     :
       : 1995:  24,788      7,500      1,475        148       1,450     23,190
       : 1996:  30,124     13,300      1,345        305       2,560     27,259
       : 1997:  27,319      9,800      1,405        195       1,555     25,569
       : 1998:  26,229     10,500
PA     :     :
       : 1995:   4,080        400        314         20         102      3,958
       : 1996:   4,160        410        266         81         320      3,759
       : 1997:   3,173        480        276         78         176      2,919
       : 1998:   3,360        420
WA     :     :
       : 1995:  80,850     18,000      3,912        300       6,400     74,150
       : 1996:  94,990     23,000      3,648        300       6,800     87,890
       : 1997:  88,160     22,500      3,840        300       6,400     81,460
       : 1998:  93,225     21,500
WI     :     :
       : 1995:  28,113      4,600      1,806        298       1,350     26,465
       : 1996:  33,150      8,200      1,710        320       1,425     31,405
       : 1997:  30,175      7,600      1,764        275       1,448     28,452
       : 1998:  30,895      7,000
15 Sts :     :
       : 1995: 394,785    115,855     26,093      5,534      27,733    361,518
       : 1996: 443,704    147,585     24,964      5,952      39,216    398,536
       : 1997: 413,513    134,190     25,580      5,120      29,933    378,460
       : 1998: 424,897    130,890
23 Fall:     :
       : 1995: 404,852                26,813      5,569      28,604    370,679
       : 1996: 454,388                25,608      6,054      40,087    408,247
       : 1997: 423,190                26,224      5,260      30,841    387,089
       : 1998: 434,368
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/  Combined to prevent disclosure of individual operations.
 
 
 
 
                Fall Potatoes:  Farm Marketings, Selected States,
                             1995-97 Marketing Years
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 State : Crop  :Jul :Aug :Sep :Oct :Nov :Dec :Jan :Feb :Mar :Apr :May :Jun :Jul
       : Year  :    :    :    :    :    :    :    :    :    :    :    :    :
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
       :       :                            Percent
       :       :
CO     :       :
       :  1995 :            4    8   10   10   11   10   10   12   10    9    6
       :  1996 :            4    7    9    9   10    9   10   11   10   11   10
       :  1997 :       1    4    8    9   11   10    8   11   11   10   10    7
ID     :       :
       :  1995 :       4   16   17    6    7    6    6    9    8    8    7    6
       :  1996 :       6   14   18    7    5    6    6    9    8    8    6    7
       :  1997 :       6   15   12    8    8    8    6    7    7    9    7    7
ME     :       :
       :  1995 :       2    5    7    9    9   11   11   17   18    7    4
       :  1996 :       1    8    7    7    8   10    9   14   16    9   11
       :  1997 :       1    6    7    8    8   10    9   15   17   10    9
MI     :       :
       :  1995 :       5   11   15   13   13   11    6    9   11    6
       :  1996 : 1     9   10   11   11    9   12   11   10    9    5    2
       :  1997 : 3     9   10    8   11   11   11   12   11    8    6
MN     :       :
       :  1995 :       2   30   26    6    4    5    5    6    8    6    2
       :  1996 :       6   22   19   11    5    5    7    8    8    5    4
       :  1997 :       5   22   25   11    7    5    6    7    7    5
NY     :       :
       :  1995 :       6   15   15   17   16   12    8    6    4    1
       :  1996 :       7   17   17   14   14   10    8    7    4    2
       :  1997 :       8   15   15   16   15   13    9    5    3    1
ND     :       :
       :  1995 :       3   14   16    9   10    9    9    8    9   11    2
       :  1996 :       4   12   22    8    7    7    8   10    7    6    7    2
       :  1997 :       1   12   16   13    8   12    9    9    8    6    5    1
OR     :       :
       :  1995 : 1    12   16   25    7    6    6    5    5    7    7    1    2
       :  1996 : 1    14   16   26    7    5    5    5    4    6    5    5    1
       :  1997 : 1     9   14   30    8    6    5    6    6    5    6    3    1
PA     :       :
       :  1995 :      18   18   18   13   13    9    5    3    2    1
       :  1996 : 1    12   15   13   11    9   10    8    9    6    4    2
       :  1997 : 1    13   13   12   12   12   10    8    7    8    3    1
WA     :       :
       :  1995 :      16   13   32    7    3    4    4    7    5    4    4    1
       :  1996 :      17   11   31    8    3    4    4    5    5    5    5    2
       :  1997 :      12   14   31    7    4    4    4    6    6    6    5    1
WI     :       :
       :  1995 : 1     9   17   13   12    7   10    9   11    8    3
       :  1996 : 1     6   20   14   10    7    8   11    9    7    4    3
       :  1997 : 1     7   17   14   10    9    8   11   10    7    4    2
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 
 
 
 
Potato Stocks Down 2 Percent
 
April 1, 1999 potato stocks totaled 131 million cwt, down 2 percent from a year
ago and 11 percent below two years ago.  Storage accounted for 31 percent of
1998 fall production, 1 percent less than a year ago.
 
Disappearance from the start of harvest to April 1 totaled 294 million cwt, up
5 percent from last year but 1 percent below the record high two years ago.
March disappearance totaled a record high 43.2 million cwt, 4 percent above the
last two years.  Shrink and loss to date is estimated at 27.7 million cwt, up
18 percent from last year but 1 percent below two years ago.
 
Processing of 1998 crop potatoes so far this season totaled 149 million cwt, up
8 percent from the 1997 crop but less than 1 percent below the 1996 crop.
March processing used a record 20.4 million cwt of raw potatoes, up 3 percent
from last year and 8 percent above two years ago.
 
Eastern States stored 6.8 million cwt of potatoes on April 1, 1999, down 18
percent from a year ago and 26 percent below two years ago.  Maine's holdings
were down 19 percent from a year ago.  New York's and Pennsylvania's stocks
were off 12 percent.
 
Central States accounted for 26.5 million cwt of potato stocks this April, up 7
percent from April 1998 but 10 percent below two years ago.  North Dakota's
stocks were up 36 percent from last year but all other Central States were
down.  Wisconsin's stocks were off  8 percent,  Michigan was down 4 percent,
and Minnesota was down 1 percent from last year.
 
Western States held 97.6 million cwt of potatoes in storage on April 1, 1999,
down 3 percent from last year and 10 percent below April 1997.  Idaho's stocks
were down 4 percent and account for 55 percent of the Western States' total.
California's stocks were down 20 percent and Colorado dropped 13 percent.
Washington's stocks were down 4 percent but Oregon stored 7 percent more than a
year ago.  Montana's seed movement is late with remaining storage 154 percent
above last year.
 
 
 
 
             Reliability of April 1 Stocks Estimates
 
The "Root Mean Square Error" for the April 1 stocks estimate is 5.1 percent.
This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current estimate of 131 million
cwt will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 5.1 percent or
approximately 6.7 million cwt.  Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence
level) that the difference will not exceed 8.8 percent or approximately 11.5
million cwt.
 
The 10-year (1989-98) record of the differences between the April 1 stocks
estimates and the final estimates averaged 5.3 million cwt, ranging from 0.7
million to 12.8 million cwt.  During the 10-year period, the April 1 stocks
forecast has been below the final 9 out of 10 years.
 
 
 
 
            Fall Potato Stocks:  Preliminary and Final April Stocks,
                             United States, 1988-98
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
   Crop   :      Preliminary      :        % of         :         Final
   Year   :        Stocks         :        Final        :        Stocks
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          :       1,000 Cwt               Percent               1,000 Cwt
          :
1988      :         86,745                  93.7                  92,585
1989      :         83,540                  99.1                  84,320
1990      :         91,910                  90.9                 101,150
1991      :        109,600                 100.7                 108,865
1992      :        103,010                  89.0                 115,785
1993      :        108,455                  94.2                 115,170
1994      :        123,285                  95.0                 129,825
1995      :        112,925                  97.5                 115,855
1996      :        143,235                  97.1                 147,585
1997      :        129,340                  96.4                 134,190
1998      :        130,890
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 
 
 
 
The next "Potato Stocks" report will be released at 3 p.m. ET on May 14, 1999.
 
 
 
 
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