Da 1-1 (1-99)

Milk

Production

National

Agricultural

Statistics

Service

USDA

Washington, D.C.

Released January 15, 1999, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of

Agriculture. For information on "Milk Production" call James Hand at 202-690-3236, office hours 7:00 a.m. to 4:30 p.m. ET.

December Milk Production Up 3.0 Percent 

Milk production in the 20 major States during December totaled 11.4 billion pounds, up 3.0

percent from production in these same States in December 1997. November revised production,

at 10.9 billion pounds was up 2.7 percent from November 1997.

Production per cow in the 20 major States averaged 1,478 pounds for December, 40 pounds

above December 1997.

The number of cows on farms in the 20 major States was 7.74 million head, 12,000 head more

than December 1997 but 1,000 head less than November 1998. 

October-December Milk Production Up 2.4 Percent

The quarterly production of milk for the U.S. was 39.1 billion pounds, 2.4 percent above the

October-December period last year. The average number of milk cows in the U.S. during the

October-December quarter was 9.19 million head, 12,000 head less than the same period last

year.
Milk Production Agricultural Statistics Board

January 1999 2 NASS, USDA

Milk Cows and Production: By Quarter, United States, 1997-98

Quarter

Milk Cows 1 Milk Per Cow 2 Milk Production 2

1997 1998 1997 1998 1997 1998

Change

From

1997

1,000 Head 1,000 Head Pounds Pounds Million Pounds Million Pounds Percent

Jan-Mar

Apr-Jun

Jul-Sep

Oct-Dec

Annual

9,295

9,280

9,251

9,206

9,258

9,186

9,205

9,203

9,194

9,198

4,192

4,384

4,195

4,144

16,915

4,268

4,447

4,204

4,248

17,165

38,961

40,683

38,805

38,153

156,602

39,209

40,931

38,685

39,058

157,883

0.6

0.6

-0.3

2.4

0.8 1 Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2 Excludes milk sucked by calves.

Milk Cows and Production: By Month, 20 Selected States, 1997-98

Month

Milk Cows 1 Milk Per Cow 2 Milk Production 2

1997 1998 1997 1998 1997 1998

Change

From

1997

1,000 Head 1,000 Head Pounds Pounds Million Pounds Million Pounds Percent

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Annual

7,787

7,774

7,763

7,763

7,765

7,765

7,765

7,757

7,752

7,750

7,737

7,732

7,759

7,730

7,726

7,725

7,735

7,750

7,753

7,750

7,753

7,749

7,746

7,745

7,744

7,742

1,433

1,328

1,500

1,474

1,529

1,471

1,473

1,446

1,377

1,416

1,369

1,438

17,252

1,464

1,351

1,517

1,499

1,557

1,476

1,464

1,439

1,382

1,441

1,405

1,478

17,474

11,158

10,321

11,641

11,446

11,869

11,419

11,437

11,213

10,671

10,977

10,591

11,118

133,861

11,316

10,434

11,722

11,591

12,067

11,446

11,345

11,160

10,706

11,164

10,881

11,448

135,280

1.4

1.1

0.7

1.3

1.7

0.2

-0.8

-0.5

0.3

1.7

2.7

3.0

1.1 1 Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2 Excludes milk sucked by calves.

Estimated Milk Production: United States, 1997-98

Month

By Month Cumulative

1997 1998

Change

From

1997

1997 1998

Change

From

1997

Million Pounds Million Pounds Percent Million Pounds Million Pounds Percent

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

13,126

12,141

13,694

13,406

13,902

13,375

13,319

13,059

12,427

12,814

12,362

12,977

13,256

12,222

13,731

13,515

14,070

13,346

13,215

13,000

12,470

13,019

12,689

13,350

1.0

0.7

0.3

0.8

1.2

-0.2

-0.8

-0.5

0.3

1.6

2.6

2.9

13,126

25,267

38,961

52,367

66,269

79,644

92,963

106,022

118,449

131,263

143,625

156,602

13,256

25,478

39,209

52,724

66,794

80,140

93,355

106,355

118,825

131,844

144,533

157,883

1.0

0.8

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.3

0.3

0.4

0.6

0.8
Milk Production Agricultural Statistics Board

January 1999 3 NASS, USDA

Milk Cows and Production: By State, December 1997-98

Month

Milk Cows 1 Milk Per Cow 2 Milk Production 2

1997 1998 1997 1998 1997 1998

Change

From

1997

1,000 Head 1,000 Head Pounds Pounds Million Pounds Million Pounds Percent

AZ

CA

FL

ID

IL

IN

IA

KY

MI

MN

MO

NM

NY

OH

PA

TX

VT

VA

WA

WI

20-State

 Total

130

1,348

160

280

145

140

240

140

299

570

162

208

700

272

638

380

158

120

260

1,382

7,732

132

1,397

157

301

139

142

240

130

299

550

164

218

702

265

629

365

162

121

261

1,370

7,744

1,710

1,710

1,315

1,610

1,310

1,330

1,420

1,020

1,480

1,340

1,165

1,625

1,360

1,320

1,430

1,245

1,385

1,340

1,650

1,325

1,438

1,795

1,665

1,260

1,650

1,390

1,370

1,490

1,040

1,510

1,450

1,210

1,675

1,400

1,380

1,450

1,305

1,400

1,265

1,715

1,410

1,478

222

2,305

210

451

190

186

341

143

443

764

189

338

952

359

912

473

219

161

429

1,831

11,118

237

2,326

198

497

193

195

358

135

451

798

198

365

983

366

912

476

227

153

448

1,932

11,448

6.8

0.9

-5.7

10.2

1.6

4.8

5.0

-5.6

1.8

4.5

4.8

8.0

3.3

1.9

0.6

3.7

-5.0

4.4

5.5

3.0 1 Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2 Excludes milk sucked by calves.
Milk Production Agricultural Statistics Board

January 1999 4 NASS, USDA

Milk Cows and Production: By State, November 1997-98 1

State

Milk Cows 2 Milk per Cow 3 Milk Production 3

1997 1998 1997 1998 1997 1998

Change

From

1997

1,000 Head 1,000 Head Pounds Pounds Million Pounds Million Pounds Percent

AZ

CA

FL

ID

IL

IN

IA

KY

MI

MN

MO

NM

NY

OH

PA

TX

VT

VA

WA

WI

20-State

 Total

130

1,343

159

280

145

140

241

141

301

570

164

206

699

274

640

380

159

120

260

1,385

7,737

132

1,394

158

300

139

142

240

131

298

555

164

218

702

266

631

366

161

120

260

1,368

7,745

1,600

1,685

1,165

1,550

1,250

1,250

1,340

970

1,415

1,230

1,090

1,590

1,290

1,260

1,350

1,155

1,305

1,260

1,585

1,250

1,369

1,675

1,640

1,115

1,600

1,320

1,285

1,400

980

1,460

1,330

1,140

1,610

1,310

1,305

1,380

1,195

1,330

1,215

1,655

1,325

1,405

208

2,263

185

434

181

175

323

137

426

701

179

328

902

345

864

439

207

151

412

1,731

10,591

221

2,286

176

480

183

182

336

128

435

738

187

351

920

347

871

437

214

146

430

1,813

10,881

6.3

1.0

-4.9

10.6

1.1

4.0

4.0

-6.6

2.1

5.3

4.5

7.0

2.0

0.6

0.8

-0.5

3.4

-3.3

4.4

4.7

2.7 1 1998 revised. 2 Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3 Excludes milk sucked by calves.
Milk Production Agricultural Statistics Board

January 1999 5 NASS, USDA

Milk Cows and Production: By State and United States,

Revised July-September, 1997-98

State

Jul-Sep Milk Cows 1 Jul-Sep Milk Production 2 Change

From

1997 1998 1997 1998 1997

1,000 Head 1,000 Head Million Pounds Million Pounds Percent

AL

AK

AZ

AR

CA

CO

CT

DE

FL

GA

HI

ID

IL

IN

IA

KS

KY

LA

ME

MD

MA

MI

MN

MS

MO

MT

NE

NV

NH

NJ

NM

NY

NC

ND

OH

OK

OR

PA

RI

SC

SD

TN

TX

UT

VT

VA

WA

WV

WI

WY

US 3

31

0.9

128

53

1,332

84

30

10.0

160

96

8.9

276

146

140

243

81

144

76

40

86

26

307

580

47

166

19

69

26

19

20

203

698

75

53

280

96

89

639

2.0

26

104

110

384

91

158

121

263

18

1,391

6.0

9,251

27

0.9

132

52

1,383

83

30

11.0

159

93

8.7

295

141

140

240

82

135

68

41

86

26

301

563

41

160

18

71

26

19

19

218

701

73

50

271

94

89

635

2.0

23

102

104

372

90

158

120

260

18

1,366

5.5

9,203

88

3.96

579

154

7,031

420

125

38.0

513

324

29.9

1,377

572

547

1,001

300

437

170

169

326

109

1,357

2,242

135

558

75

260

120

81

73

998

2,912

295

172

1,088

310

413

2,655

7.6

84

350

371

1,265

394

660

449

1,350

66

5,730

20.4

38,805

82

3.63

569

166

6,763

429

126

44.7

504

309

32.9

1,491

540

547

945

305

405

156

172

351

106

1,346

2,231

121

544

72

280

125

77

72

1,104

2,958

284

174

1,099

296

418

2,692

7.5

80

366

347

1,234

383

665

439

1,349

69

5,786

19.3

38,685

-6.8

-8.3

-1.7

7.8

-3.8

2.1

0.8

17.6

-1.8

-4.6

10.0

8.3

-5.6

-5.6

1.7

-7.3

-8.2

1.8

7.7

-2.8

-0.8

-0.5

-10.4

-2.5

-4.0

7.7

4.2

-4.9

-1.4

10.6

1.6

-3.7

1.2

1.0

-4.5

1.2

1.4

-1.3

-4.8

4.6

-6.5

-2.5

-2.8

0.8

-2.2

-0.1

4.5

1.0

-5.4

-0.3 1 Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2 Excludes milk sucked by calves. 3 Milk cows will not add due to rounding.
Milk Production Agricultural Statistics Board

January 1999 6 NASS, USDA

Milk Cows and Production: By State and United States,

Preliminary October-December, 1997-98

State

Oct-Dec Milk Cows 1 Oct-Dec Milk Production 2 Change

From

1997 1998 1997 1998 1997

1,000 Head 1,000 Head Million Pounds Million Pounds Percent

AL

AK

AZ

AR

CA

CO

CT

DE

FL

GA

HI

ID

IL

IN

IA

KS

KY

LA

ME

MD

MA

MI

MN

MS

MO

MT

NE

NV

NH

NJ

NM

NY

NC

ND

OH

OK

OR

PA

RI

SC

SD

TN

TX

UT

VT

VA

WA

WV

WI

WY

US 3

29

0.9

130

52

1,343

83

30

10.5

159

96

8.9

280

145

140

241

80

141

76

39

86

25

301

572

44

164

18

69

26

18

20

206

699

75

49

274

95

88

639

2.0

25

102

106

380

89

158

120

260

18

1,385

5.7

9,206

27

0.8

132

51

1,394

83

30

11.0

158

90

8.8

300

139

142

240

83

131

68

41

86

26

298

555

41

163

18

72

26

19

19

218

702

72

50

266

94

88

631

2.0

24

102

101

366

93

161

120

260

18

1,368

5.5

9,194

100

3.80

632

153

6,918

395

128

38.2

571

357

27.7

1,334

558

544

996

315

423

184

160

331

105

1,313

2,190

142

552

70

261

122

80

71

1,002

2,798

306

159

1,060

310

388

2,669

7.7

91

338

371

1,350

366

640

466

1,276

68

5,394

18.2

38,153

90

3.51

674

171

6,975

414

128

44.6

545

341

29.5

1,472

558

559

1,016

320

395

176

163

352

105

1,333

2,281

131

573

73

290

122

77

72

1,083

2,868

291

172

1,072

310

400

2,679

7.6

90

366

357

1,344

381

661

448

1,327

68

5,630

19.3

39,058

-10.0

-7.6

6.6

11.8

0.8

4.8

16.8

-4.6

-4.5

6.5

10.3

2.8

2.0

1.6

-6.6

-4.3

1.9

6.3

1.5

4.2

-7.7

3.8

4.3

11.1

-3.8

1.4

8.1

2.5

-4.9

8.2

1.1

3.1

0.4

-1.3

-1.1

8.3

-3.8

-0.4

4.1

3.3

-3.9

4.0

4.4

6.0

2.4 1 Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2 Excludes milk sucked by calves. 3 Milk cows will not add due to rounding.
Milk Production Agricultural Statistics Board

January 1999 7 NASS, USDA

Reliability Statement

Survey Procedures: Primary data used to determine these estimates were obtained from a sample of

producers. Individual States maintain a list of all known milk producers and information on the size of

their herd. States use all known sources of producers to ensure that their lists are as complete as

possible. Generally, all large producers and a sample of small producers are included in the survey. 

Questionnaires are mailed to producers near the end of the month to obtain data for the first day of the

month. Additional reports are obtained by telephone, as needed, to supplement the mail response.

Estimation Procedures: State offices prepare these estimates using survey indications, historic trends,

and any available administrative data. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural

Statistics Board for reasonableness.

Revision Policy: Milk production, rate per cow, and number of cows are subject to revision the

following month for monthly States or the following quarter for the quarterly States. Normally, Federal

Market Order sales are the main basis for revisions. However, data for all orders are not available in time

for this revision. Estimates are again subject to revisions in February each year based on additional

administrative data. In the event that additional changes are necessary, a third revision is possible in

February the following year. Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five-year Census of

Agriculture are available. No revisions are made after that date.

Reliability: Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in the sample, survey estimates are

subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions,

duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors

cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection

process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness.

To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error"

is shown for selected items on the next page. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure

based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The

"Root Mean Square Error" for milk cow inventory estimates over the past 10 quarters is 1.2 percent. 

This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final October-December estimate will not be above or

below the current estimate of 9.19 million head by more than 1.2 percent, or about 110,000 head. 

Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 2.3 percent, or about 211,000 head (the 90

percent confidence level).
Milk Production Agricultural Statistics Board

January 1999 8 NASS, USDA

Reliability of October-December Milk Estimates 1

Item

Root

Mean

Square

Error

90%

Confidence

Level

Difference Between

First and Latest

Estimates

Quarters

Average Smallest Largest

First

Above

Latest

First

Below

Latest

Percent Percent Million Pounds Million Pounds Million Pounds Million Pounds Number Number

Milk

 Production 0.6 1.1 430 185 66 385 9 1

Percent Percent 1,000 Head 1,000 Head 1,000 Head 1,000 Head Number Number

All Milk

 Cows 1.2 2.3 211 100 2 195 8 2

1 Based on records for the past 10 October-December quarters.
The next "Milk Production" report will be released at 3 p.m. ET on February 16, 1999.

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