13A-i

APPENDIX 13A MANUFACTURER IMPACT ANALYSIS INTERVIEW GUIDE AND 

GOVERNMENT REGULATORY IMPACT MODEL (GRIM)

TABLE OF CONTENTS

13A.1 MANUFACTURER IMPACT ANALYSIS INTERVIEW GUIDE........................... 13A-2

13A.1.1 Manufacturer Analysis Interview Guide....................................................... 13A-2

13A.1.2 General Service Fluorescent and Incandescent Reflector Lamps Energy 

Conservation Standards Rulemaking Manufacturer Impact Analysis Interview Guide for 

Small Businesses....................................................................................................... 13A-11

13A.2 GOVERNMENT REGULATORY IMPACT MODEL ............................................ 13A-12

13A. 2.1 Introduction and Purpose ........................................................................... 13A-12

13A.2.2 Model Description....................................................................................... 13A-12

13A.2.3 Detailed Cash Flow Example...................................................................... 13A-15

13A.3 MIA RESULTS.......................................................................................................... 13A-16

13A.3.1 Impacts on GSFL Industry Net Present Value............................................ 13A-16

13A.3.2 Impacts on GSFL Annual Cash Flow ......................................................... 13A-20

13A.3.3 Impacts on IRL Industry Net Present Value ............................................... 13A-28

13A.3.4 Impacts on IRL Annual Cash Flow............................................................. 13A-33

13A.3.5 Impacts on IRL Employment...................................................................... 13A-37

LIST OF TABLES

Table 13.3.1.1 Changes in Industry Net Present Value for the GSFL Industry with a Flat Markup 

Scenario, Existing Technologies Base Case – Market Segment Based – Shift in Efficacy 

Distribution.... ...................................................................................................................... 13A-16

Table 13.3.1.2 Changes in Industry Net Present Value for the GSFL Industry with a Four-Tier 

Markup Scenario, Existing Technologies Base Case – Market Segment Based – Shift in Efficacy 

Distribution.... ...................................................................................................................... 13A-16

Table 13.3.1.3 Changes in Industry Net Present Value for the GSFL Industry with a Flat Markup 

Scenario, Existing Technologies Base Case – Market Segment Based – Roll-up in Efficacy 

Distribution.... ...................................................................................................................... 13A-16

Table 13.3.1.4 Changes in Industry Net Present Value for the GSFL Industry with a Four-Tier 

Markup Scenario, Existing Technologies Base Case – Market Segment Based – Roll-up in 

Efficacy Distribution............................................................................................................. 13A-17

Table 13.3.1.5 Changes in Industry Net Present Value for the GSFL Industry with a Flat Markup 

Scenario, Existing Technologies Base Case – High Consumer Sophistication – Shift in Efficacy 

Distribution..... ..................................................................................................................... 13A-17

Table 13.3.1.6 Changes in Industry Net Present Value for the GSFL Industry with a Four-Tier 

Markup Scenario, Existing Technologies Base Case – High Consumer Sophistication – Shift in 

Efficacy Distribution............................................................................................................. 13A-17
13A-ii

Table 13.3.1.7 Changes in Industry Net Present Value for the GSFL Industry with a Flat Markup 

Scenario, Existing Technologies Base Case – High Consumer Sophistication – Roll-up in 

Efficacy Distribution............................................................................................................. 13A-17

Table 13.3.1.8 Changes in Industry Net Present Value for the GSFL Industry with a Four-Tier 

Markup Scenario, Existing Technologies Base Case – High Consumer Sophistication – Roll-up 

in Efficacy Distribution......................................................................................................... 13A-18

Table 13.3.1.9 Changes in Industry Net Present Value for the GSFL Industry with a Flat Markup 

Scenario, Emerging Technologies Base Case – Market Segment Based – Shift in Efficacy 

Distribution.... ...................................................................................................................... 13A-18

Table 13.3.1.10 Changes in Industry Net Present Value for the GSFL Industry with a Four-Tier 

Markup Scenario, Emerging Technologies Base Case – Market Segment Based – Shift in 

Efficacy Distribution............................................................................................................. 13A-18

Table 13.3.1.11 Changes in Industry Net Present Value for the GSFL Industry with a Flat 

Markup Scenario, Emerging Technologies Base Case – Market Segment Based – Roll-up in 

Efficacy Distribution............................................................................................................. 13A-18

Table 13.3.1.12 Changes in Industry Net Present Value for the GSFL Industry with a Four-Tier 

Markup Scenario, Emerging Technologies Base Case – Market Segment Based – Roll-up in 

Efficacy Distribution............................................................................................................. 13A-19

Table 13.3.1.13 Changes in Industry Net Present Value for the GSFL Industry with a Flat 

Markup Scenario, Emerging Technologies Base Case – High Consumer Sophistication – Shift in 

Efficacy Distribution............................................................................................................. 13A-19

Table 13.3.1.14 Changes in Industry Net Present Value for the GSFL Industry with a Four-Tier 

Markup Scenario, Emerging Technologies Base Case – High Consumer Sophistication – Shift in 

Efficacy Distribution............................................................................................................. 13A-19

Table 13.3.1.15 Changes in Industry Net Present Value for the GSFL Industry with a Flat 

Markup Scenario, Emerging Technologies Base Case – High Consumer Sophistication – Roll-up 

in Efficacy Distribution......................................................................................................... 13A-19

Table 13.3.1.16 Changes in Industry Net Present Value for the GSFL Industry with a Four-Tier 

Markup Scenario, Emerging Technologies Base Case – High Consumer Sophistication – Roll-up 

in Efficacy Distribution......................................................................................................... 13A-20

Table 13.3.3.1 Changes in Industry Net Present Value for IRL Industry Under the Existing 

Technologies Base Case - BR Substitution Scenario - Shift in Efficacy Distribution - Normal 

Lifetime Scenario.................................................................................................................. 13A-28

Table 13.3.3.2 Changes in Industry Net Present Value for IRL Industry Under the Existing 

Technologies Base Case - BR Substitution Scenario – Roll-Up in Efficacy Distribution – Normal 

Lifetime Scenario.................................................................................................................. 13A-29

Table 13.3.3.3 Changes in Industry Net Present Value for IRL Industry Under the Existing 

Technologies Base Case – CFL Substitution Scenario - Shift in Efficacy Distribution – Normal 

Lifetime Scenario.................................................................................................................. 13A-29

Table 13.3.3.4 Changes in Industry Net Present Value for IRL Industry Under the Existing 

Technologies Base Case – CFL Substitution Scenario – Roll-Up in Efficacy Distribution –

Normal Lifetime Scenario..................................................................................................... 13A-29

Table 13.3.3.5 Changes in Industry Net Present Value for IRL Industry Under the Emerging 

Technologies Base Case – BR Substitution Scenario - Shift in Efficacy Distribution – Normal 

Lifetime Scenario.................................................................................................................. 13A-29
13A-iii

Table 13.3.3.6 Changes in Industry Net Present Value for IRL Industry Under the Emerging 

Technologies Base Case – BR Substitution Scenario – Roll-Up in Efficacy Distribution –

Normal Lifetime Scenario..................................................................................................... 13A-30

Table 13.3.3.7 Changes in Industry Net Present Value for IRL Industry Under the Emerging 

Technologies Base Case – CFL Substitution Scenario - Shift in Efficacy Distribution – Normal 

Lifetime Scenario.................................................................................................................. 13A-30

Table 13.3.3.8 Changes in Industry Net Present Value for IRL Industry Under the Emerging 

Technologies Base Case – CFL Substitution Scenario – Roll-Up in Efficacy Distribution –

Normal Lifetime Scenario..................................................................................................... 13A-30

Table 13.3.3.9 Changes in Industry Net Present Value for IRL Industry Under the Existing 

Technologies Base Case - BR Substitution Scenario - Shift in Efficacy Distribution - Baseline 

Lifetime Scenario.................................................................................................................. 13A-30

Table 13.3.3.10 Changes in Industry Net Present Value for IRL Industry Under the Existing 

Technologies Base Case - BR Substitution Scenario – Roll-Up in Efficacy Distribution –

Baseline Lifetime Scenario................................................................................................... 13A-31

Table 13.3.3.11 Changes in Industry Net Present Value for IRL Industry Under the Existing 

Technologies Base Case – CFL Substitution Scenario - Shift in Efficacy Distribution – Baseline 

Lifetime Scenario.................................................................................................................. 13A-31

Table 13.3.3.12 Changes in Industry Net Present Value for IRL Industry Under the Existing 

Technologies Base Case – CFL Substitution Scenario – Roll-Up in Efficacy Distribution –

Baseline Lifetime Scenario................................................................................................... 13A-31

Table 13.3.3.13 Changes in Industry Net Present Value for IRL Industry Under the Emerging 

Technologies Base Case – BR Substitution Scenario - Shift in Efficacy Distribution – Baseline 

Lifetime Scenario.................................................................................................................. 13A-31

Table 13.3.3.14 Changes in Industry Net Present Value for IRL Industry Under the Emerging 

Technologies Base Case – BR Substitution Scenario – Roll-Up in Efficacy Distribution –

Baseline Lifetime Scenario................................................................................................... 13A-32

Table 13.3.3.15 Changes in Industry Net Present Value for IRL Industry Under the Emerging 

Technologies Base Case – CFL Substitution Scenario - Shift in Efficacy Distribution – Baseline 

Lifetime Scenario.................................................................................................................. 13A-32

Table 13.3.3.16 Changes in Industry Net Present Value for IRL Industry Under the Emerging 

Technologies Base Case – CFL Substitution Scenario – Roll-Up in Efficacy Distribution –

Baseline Lifetime Scenario................................................................................................... 13A-32

Table 13.3.5.1 Change in the Average Number of Domestic Employees in the IRL Industry 

Under the Existing Technologies Base Case – BR Substitution Scenario - Shift in Efficacy 

Distribution – Normal Lifetime Scenario ............................................................................. 13A-41

Table 13.3.5.2 Change in the Average Number of Domestic Employees in the IRL Industry 

Under the Existing Technologies Base Case – BR Substitution Scenario – Roll-Up in Efficacy 

Distribution – Normal Lifetime Scenario ............................................................................. 13A-41

Table 13.3.5.3 Change in the Average Number of Domestic Employees in the IRL Industry 

Under the Existing Technologies Base Case – CFL Substitution Scenario - Shift in Efficacy 

Distribution – Normal Lifetime Scenario ............................................................................. 13A-41

Table 13.3.5.4 Change in the Average Number of Domestic Employees in the IRL Industry 

Under the Existing Technologies Base Case – CFL Substitution Scenario – Roll-Up in Efficacy 

Distribution – Normal Lifetime Scenario ............................................................................. 13A-42
13A-iv

Table 13.3.5.5 Change in the Average Number of Domestic Employees in the IRL Industry 

Under the Emerging Technologies Base Case – BR Substitution Scenario - Shift in Efficacy 

Distribution – Normal Lifetime Scenario ............................................................................. 13A-42

Table 13.5.5.6 Change in the Average Number of Domestic Employees in the IRL Industry 

Under the Emerging Technologies Base Case – BR Substitution Scenario – Roll-Up in Efficacy 

Distribution – Normal Lifetime Scenario ............................................................................. 13A-42

Table 13.3.5.7 Change in the Average Number of Domestic Employees in the IRL Industry 

Under the Emerging Technologies Base Case – CFL Substitution Scenario - Shift in Efficacy 

Distribution – Normal Lifetime Scenario ............................................................................. 13A-43

Table 13.3.5.8 Change in the Average Number of Domestic Employees in the IRL Industry 

Under the Emerging Technologies Base Case – CFL Substitution Scenario – Roll-Up in Efficacy 

Distribution – Normal Lifetime Scenario ............................................................................. 13A-43

Table 13.3.5.9 Change in the Average Number of Domestic Employees in the IRL Industry 

Under the Existing Technologies Base Case – BR Substitution Scenario - Shift in Efficacy 

Distribution – Baseline Lifetime Scenario............................................................................ 13A-43

Table 13.3.5.10 Change in the Average Number of Domestic Employees in the IRL Industry 

Under the Existing Technologies Base Case – BR Substitution Scenario – Roll-Up in Efficacy 

Distribution – Baseline Lifetime Scenario............................................................................ 13A-44

Table 13.3.5.11 Change in the Average Number of Domestic Employees in the IRL Industry 

Under the Existing Technologies Base Case – CFL Substitution Scenario - Shift in Efficacy 

Distribution – Baseline Lifetime Scenario............................................................................ 13A-44

Table 13.3.5.12 Change in the Average Number of Domestic Employees in the IRL Industry 

Under the Existing Technologies Base Case – CFL Substitution Scenario – Roll-Up in Efficacy 

Distribution – Baseline Lifetime Scenario............................................................................ 13A-44

Table 13.3.5.13 Change in the Average Number of Domestic Employees in the IRL Industry 

Under the Emerging Technologies Base Case – BR Substitution Scenario - Shift in Efficacy 

Distribution – Baseline Lifetime Scenario............................................................................ 13A-45

Table 13.3.5.14 Change in the Average Number of Domestic Employees in the IRL Industry 

Under the Emerging Technologies Base Case – BR Substitution Scenario – Roll-Up in Efficacy 

Distribution – Baseline Lifetime Scenario............................................................................ 13A-45

Table 13.3.5.15 Change in the Average Number of Domestic Employees in the IRL Industry 

Under the Emerging Technologies Base Case – CFL Substitution Scenario - Shift in Efficacy 

Distribution – Baseline Lifetime Scenario............................................................................ 13A-45

Table 13.3.5.16 Change in the Average Number of Domestic Employees in the IRL Industry 

Under the Emerging Technologies Base Case – CFL Substitution Scenario – Roll-Up in Efficacy 

Distribution – Baseline Lifetime Scenario............................................................................ 13A-46

LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 13.3.2.1 Annual Net Cash Flow for GSFL Industry with a Flat Markup Scenario, Existing 

Technologies Base Case – Market Segment Based – Shift in Efficacy Distribution ........... 13A-20
13A-v

Figure 13.3.2.2 Annual Net Cash Flow for GSFL Industry with a Four-Tier Markup Scenario, 

Existing Technologies Base Case – Market Segment Based – Shift in Efficacy 

Distribution......... ................................................................................................................ 13A-21

Figure 13.3.2.3 Annual Net Cash Flow for GSFL Industry with a Flat Markup Scenario, Existing 

Technologies Base Case – Market Segment Based – Roll-up in Efficacy Distribution....... 13A-21

Figure 13.3.2.4 Annual Net Cash Flow for GSFL Industry with a Four-Tier Markup Scenario, 

Existing Technologies Base Case – Market Segment Based – Roll-up in Efficacy 

Distribution......................................................................................................................... 13A-22

Figure 13.3.2.5 Annual Net Cash Flow for GSFL Industry with a Flat Markup Scenario, Existing 

Technologies Base Case – High Consumer Sophistication – Shift in Efficacy Distribution13A-22

Figure 13.3.2.6 Annual Net Cash Flow for GSFL Industry with a Four-Tier Markup Scenario, 

Existing Technologies Base Case – High Consumer Sophistication – Shift in Efficacy 

Distribution.... ...................................................................................................................... 13A-23

Figure 13.3.2.7 Annual Net Cash Flow for GSFL Industry with a Flat Markup Scenario, Existing 

Technologies Base Case – High Consumer Sophistication – Roll-up in Efficacy 

Distribution......................................................................................................................... 13A-23

Figure 13.3.2.8 Annual Net Cash Flow for GSFL Industry with a Four-Tier Markup Scenario, 

Existing Technologies Base Case – High Consumer Sophistication – Roll-up in Efficacy 

Distribution.... ...................................................................................................................... 13A-24

Figure 13.3.2.9 Annual Net Cash Flow for GSFL Industry with a Flat Markup Scenario, 

Emerging Technologies Base Case – Market Segment Based – Shift in Efficacy 

Distribution....... .................................................................................................................. 13A-24

Figure 13.3.2.10 Annual Net Cash Flow for GSFL Industry with a Four-Tier Markup Scenario, 

Emerging Technologies Base Case – Market Segment Based – Shift in Efficacy 

Distribution....... .................................................................................................................. 13A-25

Figure 13.3.2.11 Annual Net Cash Flow for GSFL Industry with a Flat Markup Scenario, 

Emerging Technologies Base Case – Market Segment Based – Roll-up in Efficacy 

Distribution.... ...................................................................................................................... 13A-25

Figure 13.3.2.12 Annual Net Cash Flow for GSFL Industry with a Four-Tier Markup Scenario, 

Emerging Technologies Base Case – Market Segment Based – Roll-up in Efficacy 

Distribution.... ...................................................................................................................... 13A-26

Figure 13.3.2.13 Annual Net Cash Flow for GSFL Industry with a Flat Markup Scenario, 

Emerging Technologies Base Case – High Consumer Sophistication – Shift in Efficacy

Distribution.... ...................................................................................................................... 13A-26

Figure 13.3.2.14 Annual Net Cash Flow for GSFL Industry with a Four-Tier Markup Scenario, 

Emerging Technologies Base Case – High Consumer Sophistication – Shift in Efficacy 

Distribution.... ...................................................................................................................... 13A-27

Figure 13.3.2.15 Annual Net Cash Flow for GSFL Industry with a Flat Markup Scenario, 

Emerging Technologies Base Case – High Consumer Sophistication – Roll-up in Efficacy 

Distribution.... ...................................................................................................................... 13A-27

Figure 13.3.2.16 Annual Net Cash Flow for GSFL Industry with a Four-Tier Markup Scenario, 

Emerging Technologies Base Case – High Consumer Sophistication – Roll-up in Efficacy 

Distribution.... ...................................................................................................................... 13A-28

Figure 13.3.4.1 Annual Net Cash Flow for IRL Industry Under the Existing Technologies Base 

Case - BR Substitution Scenario - Shift in Efficacy Distribution – Normal Lifetime 

Scenario.............................................................................................................................. 13A-33
13A-vi

Figure 13.3.4.2 Annual Net Cash Flow for IRL Industry Under the Existing Technologies Base 

Case - BR Substitution Scenario – Roll-Up in Efficacy Distribution – Normal Lifetime 

Scenario.............................................................................................................................. 13A-33

Figure 13.3.4.3 Annual Net Cash Flow for IRL Industry Under the Existing Technologies Base 

Case – CFL Substitution Scenario - Shift in Efficacy Distribution – Normal Lifetime 

Scenario.............................................................................................................................. 13A-34

Figure 13.3.4.4 Annual Net Cash Flow for IRL Industry Under the Existing Technologies Base 

Case – CFL Substitution Scenario – Roll-Up in Efficacy Distribution – Normal Lifetime 

Scenario.............................................................................................................................. 13A-34

Figure 13.3.4.5 Annual Net Cash Flow for IRL Industry Under the Emerging Technologies Base 

Case – BR Substitution Scenario - Shift in Efficacy Distribution – Normal Lifetime 

Scenario.............................................................................................................................. 13A-35

Figure 13.3.4.6 Annual Net Cash Flow for IRL Industry Under the Emerging Technologies Base 

Case – BR Substitution Scenario – Roll-Up in Efficacy Distribution – Normal Lifetime 

Scenario.............................................................................................................................. 13A-35

Figure 13.3.4.7 Annual Net Cash Flow for IRL Industry Under the Emerging Technologies Base 

Case – CFL Substitution Scenario - Shift in Efficacy Distribution – Normal Lifetime 

Scenario.............................................................................................................................. 13A-36

Figure 13.3.4.8 Annual Net Cash Flow for IRL Industry Under the Emerging Technologies Base 

Case – CFL Substitution Scenario – Roll-Up in Efficacy Distribution – Normal Lifetime 

Scenario.............................................................................................................................. 13A-36

Figure 13.3.4.9 Annual Net Cash Flow for IRL Industry Under the Existing Technologies Base 

Case - BR Substitution Scenario - Shift in Efficacy Distribution – Baseline Lifetime 

Scenario.............................................................................................................................. 13A-37

Figure 13.3.4.10 Annual Net Cash Flow for IRL Industry Under the Existing Technologies Base 

Case - BR Substitution Scenario – Roll-Up in Efficacy Distribution – Baseline Lifetime 

Scenario.............................................................................................................................. 13A-37

Figure 13.3.4.11 Annual Net Cash Flow for IRL Industry Under the Existing Technologies Base 

Case – CFL Substitution Scenario - Shift in Efficacy Distribution – Baseline Lifetime 

Scenario.............................................................................................................................. 13A-38

Figure 13.3.4.12 Annual Net Cash Flow for IRL Industry Under the Existing Technologies Base 

Case – CFL Substitution Scenario – Roll-Up in Efficacy Distribution – Baseline Lifetime 

Scenario.............................................................................................................................. 13A-38

Figure 13.3.4.13 Annual Net Cash Flow for IRL Industry Under the Emerging Technologies 

Base Case – BR Substitution Scenario - Shift in Efficacy Distribution – Baseline Lifetime 

Scenario.............................................................................................................................. 13A-39

Figure 13.3.4.14 Annual Net Cash Flow for IRL Industry Under the Emerging Technologies 

Base Case – BR Substitution Scenario – Roll-Up in Efficacy Distribution – Baseline Lifetime 

Scenario.............................................................................................................................. 13A-39

Figure 13.3.4.15 Annual Net Cash Flow for IRL Industry Under the Emerging Technologies 

Base Case – CFL Substitution Scenario - Shift in Efficacy Distribution – Baseline Lifetime 

Scenario.............................................................................................................................. 13A-40

Figure 13.3.4.16 Annual Net Cash Flow for IRL Industry Under the Emerging Technologies 

Base Case – CFL Substitution Scenario – Roll-Up in Efficacy Distribution – Baseline Lifetime 

Scenario.............................................................................................................................. 13A-40
13A-vii

Figure 13.3.5.1 Total IRL Industry Employment by Year Under the Existing Technologies Base 

Case - BR Substitution Scenario - Shift in Efficacy Distribution – Normal Lifetime 

Scenario.............................................................................................................................. 13A-46

Figure 13.3.5.2 Total IRL Industry Employment by Year Under the Existing Technologies Base 

Case - BR Substitution Scenario – Roll-Up in Efficacy Distribution – Normal Lifetime 

Scenario.............................................................................................................................. 13A-47

Figure 13.3.5.3 Total IRL Industry Employment by Year Under the Existing Technologies Base 

Case – CFL Substitution Scenario - Shift in Efficacy Distribution –Normal Lifetime 

Scenario.............................................................................................................................. 13A-47

Figure 13.3.5.4 Total IRL Industry Employment by Year Under the Existing Technologies Base 

Case – CFL Substitution Scenario – Roll-Up in Efficacy Distribution – Normal Lifetime 

Scenario.............................................................................................................................. 13A-48

Figure 13.3.5.5 Total IRL Industry Employment by Year Under the Emerging Technologies 

Base Case – BR Substitution Scenario - Shift in Efficacy Distribution – Normal Lifetime 

Scenario.............................................................................................................................. 13A-48

Figure 13.3.5.6 Total IRL Industry Employment by Year Under the Emerging Technologies 

Base Case – BR Substitution Scenario – Roll-Up in Efficacy Distribution – Normal Lifetime 

Scenario.............................................................................................................................. 13A-49

Figure 13.3.5.7 Total IRL Industry Employment by Year Under the Emerging Technologies

Base Case – CFL Substitution Scenario - Shift in Efficacy Distribution – Normal Lifetime 

Scenario.............................................................................................................................. 13A-49

Figure 13.3.5.8 Total IRL Industry Employment by Year Under the Emerging Technologies 

Base Case – CFL Substitution Scenario – Roll-Up in Efficacy Distribution – Normal Lifetime 

Scenario.............................................................................................................................. 13A-50

Figure 13.3.5.9 Total IRL Industry Employment by Year Under the Existing Technologies Base 

Case - BR Substitution Scenario - Shift in Efficacy Distribution – Baseline Lifetime 

Scenario.............................................................................................................................. 13A-50

Figure 13.3.5.10 Total IRL Industry Employment by Year Under the Existing Technologies Base 

Case - BR Substitution Scenario – Roll-Up in Efficacy Distribution – Baseline Lifetime 

Scenario.............................................................................................................................. 13A-51

Figure 13.3.5.11 Total IRL Industry Employment by Year Under the Existing Technologies Base 

Case – CFL Substitution Scenario - Shift in Efficacy Distribution –Baseline Lifetime 

Scenario............................................................................................................................... 13A-51

Figure 13.3.5.12 Total IRL Industry Employment by Year Under the Existing Technologies Base 

Case – CFL Substitution Scenario – Roll-Up in Efficacy Distribution – Baseline Lifetime 

Scenario.............................................................................................................................. 13A-52

Figure 13.3.5.13 Total IRL Industry Employment by Year Under the Emerging Technologies 

Base Case – BR Substitution Scenario - Shift in Efficacy Distribution – Normal Lifetime 

Scenario.............................................................................................................................. 13A-52

Figure 13.3.5.14 Total IRL Industry Employment by Year Under the Emerging Technologies 

Base Case – BR Substitution Scenario – Roll-Up in Efficacy Distribution – Baseline Lifetime 

Scenario.............................................................................................................................. 13A-53

Figure 13.3.5.15 Total IRL Industry Employment by Year Under the Emerging Technologies 

Base Case – CFL Substitution Scenario - Shift in Efficacy Distribution – Baseline Lifetime 

Scenario.............................................................................................................................. 13A-53
13A-viii

Figure 13.3.5.16 Total IRL Industry Employment by Year Under the Emerging Technologies 

Base Case – CFL Substitution Scenario – Roll-Up in Efficacy Distribution – Baseline Lifetime 

Scenario.............................................................................................................................. 13A-54
13A-1

APPENDIX 13A.
13A-2

13A.1 MANUFACTURER IMPACT ANALYSIS INTERVIEW GUIDE

13A.1.1 Manufacturer Analysis Interview Guide

Lamps Rulemaking

Manufacturer Impact Analysis Interview Guide: General Service Fluorescent 

Lamps and Incandescent Reflector Lamps

April 23, 2008
13A-3

1 KEY ISSUES

1.1 What are the key lamp manufacturing issues for your company related to energy 

conservation standards and this rulemaking?

1.2 For the issues identified, how significant are they for each efficiency level? See section 

6.1 of this interview guide for a description of efficiency levels. 

1.3 How can we most effectively incorporate these issues in the Manufacturer Impact 

Analysis (MIA)?

1.4 Max Tech: DOE is required to consider the maximum technically feasible energy 

conservation standard. DOE’s efficiency levels considered in the ANOPR were based on 

commercially available product. Table 1.4.1 lists the highest efficacy lamp in each product class 

that DOE analyzed. Please provide any efficacy improvements that may be possible as well as 

the associated cost increase expected for such a lamp.

Table 1.4.1 Maximum Technically Feasible Lamps

Product Class Highest Efficacy 

Commercially Available 

Product Analyzed

Potential 

Efficacy 

Improvement

Associated Cost 

Increase

4-foot MBP 

CCT ≤ 4500K

28W T8

2,725 initial lumens

8-foot SP Slimline

CCT ≤ 4500K

55W T8

5,700 initial lumens

8-foot RDC HO

CCT ≤ 4500K

86W T8

8,200 initial lumens

IRL, Standard 

Spectrum 

Improved HIR

(e.g., 40W PAR30 4,000hr 

17.0 lm/W)

2 COMPANY OVERVIEW AND ORGANIZATIONAL CHARACTERISTICS 

DOE is interested in understanding manufacturer impact at the plant or profit center level 

directly pertinent to GSFL and IRL production. However, the context within which the plant 

operates and the details of plant production and costs are not readily available from the published 

literature. Therefore, DOE invites you to provide these details confidentially in your own words 

to the extent possible and practical. Understanding the organizational setting around the GSFL 

and IRL industries profit center will help DOE understand the probable future of the GSFL and 

IRL manufacturing activity with and without energy conservation standards.

2.1 Do you have a parent company, and/or any subsidiaries relevant to the GSFL and IRL 

industries?
13A-4

2.2 Do you manufacture any equipment other than GSFL and IRL? If so, what other 

products do you manufacture?

2.3 What percentage of your total manufacturing corresponds to GSFL and IRL?

2.4 Where are your production facilities located, and what types of products are 

manufactured at each location? Could you provide figures for your company’s manufacturing at 

each location by product type (GSFL, IRL, or other), and efficiency (i.e., provide the product 

mix for each location). 

2.5 At a particular facility, would potential GSFL and IRL redesigns be difficult to 

implement? If so, would your company modify the existing facility or develop a new facility?

2.6 What are your employment levels at each of these facilities?

2.7 What are your company’s total GSFL and IRL production volumes (i.e., units per year) 

for the past 5 years? What are the production volumes of your five highest volume product 

classes?

2.8 What are your equipment lines, niches, and relative strengths in the GSFL and IRL 

market?

2.9 Are there any niche manufacturers, small businesses, and/or component manufacturers 

for which the adoption of new standards would have a severe impact? If so, would 

manufacturers of this equipment have different incremental impacts from implemented energy 

conservation standards than from the rest of the industry?

3 FINANCIAL PARAMETERS

Navigant Consulting, Inc. has developed a “strawman” model of the GSFL and IRL industry 

financial performance called the GRIM, using publicly available data on lighting manufacturers. 

(e.g., U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) 10-K Forms) This section attempts to 

understand how your company’s financial situation differs from our industry aggregate picture.

3.1 Please compare your financial parameters to the GRIM parameters tabulated below.
13A-5

Table 3.1 Financial Parameters for Lamp Manufacturers

GRIM Input Definition GRIM 

Estimated

Value

Your Actual (if 

significantly 

different from 

our estimate)

Income Tax Rate Corporate (average) 

effective income tax paid 

(percentage of earnings 

before interest and taxes, 

EBIT)

16.2%

Discount Rate Weighted average cost of 

capital (inflation-adjusted 

weighted average of 

corporate cost of debt and 

return on equity)

18.4%

Working Capital Current assets less current 

liabilities (percentage of 

revenues)

12.1%

SG&A Selling, general, and 

administrative expenses 

(percentage of revenues)

19.6%

R&D Research and development 

expenses (percentage of 

revenues)

6.6%

Depreciation Amortization of fixed 

assets (percentage of 

revenues)

3.5%

Capital 

Expenditures

Outlay of cash to acquire 

or improve capital assets 

(percentage of revenues, 

not including acquisition 

or sale of business units)

3.6%

Costs of Goods 

Sold

Includes material, labor, 

overhead, and depreciation 70.39%

3.2 How would you expect new energy conservation standards impact your company’s 

financial parameters?

4 PRODUCTION COST BREAKDOWN

To help understand the industry and costs associated with manufacturing GSFL and IRL, DOE 

will study the effects of energy conservation standards on the full production costs breakdowns. 

DOE will estimate the industry average percentage of each cost in the full production cost.
13A-6

4.1 Could you please provide the breakdown in the total production costs for lamps by the 

percentage for labor, materials, overhead, and depreciation by filling in the table below? 

Labor % of full 

production costs

Materials % of full 

production costs

Overhead % of full 

production costs

Depreciation % of full 

production costs

4.2 Do the percentages for the full production costs found above vary significantly between 

IRL and GSFL? 

4.3 Within the covered IRL and GSFL, do the percentages vary significantly by efficiency 

level?

5 SHIPMENT PROJECTIONS AND MARKET SHARES

A new energy conservation standard can change overall shipments by changing product 

attributes, marketing approaches, equipment availability, and price. The GRIM bases revenue 

projections on the shipments modeled in the National Impact Analysis Spreadsheet (NIA) 

prepared by NCI. The NIA includes shipment forecasts for the baseline (absent new standards) 

and new standards at each efficiency level being analyzed. 

5.1 What is your company’s approximate market share of the GSFL and IRL industries?

5.2 Would you expect your market share to change once higher energy conservation 

standards become effective? 

6 CONVERSION COSTS

An increase in energy conservation standards may cause your company to incur one-time capital 

and product conversion costs . DOE calls these conversion costs because they are the costs of 

changing your business to comply with new energy conservation standards.

6.1 What level of conversion costs do you anticipate incurring under the different efficiency 

levels? Refer to the tables below to provide your company’s estimates. Please provide 

additional qualitative information to help us understand the nature of your investments. 
13A-7

Table 6.1 GSFL: 4-Foot Medium Bipin Product Class

Standard 

Level

Investment Numbers for Comment Design Option for Each Baseline

Conversion 

Capital 

Expenditure

Product 

Conversion 

Expenses

Stranded 

Assets

40W T12 34W T12 32W T8

Baseline 700 series 600 series -

EL 1 Improved 

700 series 

or 800 

series

700 series -

EL 2 800 series 800 series 700 series

EL 3 Improved 

800 series

Improved 

800 series

800 series

EL 4 Improved 

800 series 

– 30W 

lamp 

available

EL 5 Improved 

800 series 

– 28W 

lamp 

available

Table 6.2 GSFL: 8-Foot Single Pin Slimline Product Class

Standard 

Level

Investment Numbers for Comment Design Option for Each Baseline

Conversion 

Capital 

Expenditure

Product 

Conversion 

Expenses

Stranded 

Assets

75W T12 60W T12 59W T8

Baseline 700 series - -

EL 1 800 series 600 series -

EL 2 Improved 

800 series

700 series -

EL 3 Improved 

800 series

Improved 

700 series

700 series

EL 4 800 series

EL 5 Improved 

800 series 

– 57W 

and 55W 

available
13A-8

Table 6.3 GSFL: 8-Foot Recessed Double Contact High Output Product Class

Standard 

Level

Investment Numbers for Comment Design Option for Each Baseline

Conversion 

Capital 

Expenditure

Product 

Conversion 

Expenses

Stranded 

Assets

110W T12 95W T12 86W T8

Baseline 700 series 600 series -

EL 1 800 series - -

EL 2 700 series -

EL 3 800 series -

EL 4 700 series

EL 5 800 series

Table 6.4 IRL Conversion Costs Product Class

Standard 

Level

Conversion 

Capital 

Expenditures

Product 

Conversion 

Expenses

Stranded 

Assets

Design Option

Baseline Halogen (3,000 hr)

EL 1 Improved Halogen (2,500-

3,000 hr) 

EL 2 Halogen Infrared (3,000 hr)

EL 3 Improved Halogen Infrared 

(4,000 hr)

* Note: “improved” design options may employ the use technologies such as improved optics, 

enhanced reflector materials, or higher efficiency filaments. “Improved halogen” and “improved 

halogen infrared” lamps may have approximately a 10 percent efficacy improvement over the 

“halogen” and “halogen infrared” lamps, respectively.

6.2 If DOE were to regulate the nominal 4-foot T5 fluorescent lamp it would be required to 

analyze both the standard efficacy 28W T5 lamp (2,900 initial lumens) as well as the premium 

efficacy 28W T5 lamp (3,050 initial lumens) offered by OSI. What would be the conversion 

capital expenditures, product conversion expenses, and stranded assets associated with energy 

conservation standards set at the higher efficacy T5 lamp?

6.3 DOE is required to consider the maximum technically feasible energy conservation 

standard. DOE’s efficiency levels currently being considered are based on commercially 

available product. As discussed earlier in section 1.4, if higher efficiency products can be 

manufactured, what would be the conversion capital expenditures, product conversion expenses, 

and stranded assets associated with increasing energy conservation standards to that level?
13A-9

6.4 What is your depreciation period for the capital expenditures (building, equipment, and 

tooling)?

7 MARKUPS AND PROFITABILITY

One of the primary objectives of the MIA is to assess the impact of efficiency levels on industry 

profitability. In this section, DOE would like your assistance in understanding how the 

efficiency levels would impact your company’s revenues and profitability. The following 

questions will assist DOE in developing industry revenues and profitability for a base-case cash 

flow and several standards cases using the GRIM model. 

In order to assess industry revenue, DOE needs to determine manufacturing selling price. 

During the Framework workshop, manufacturers suggested DOE obtain market or consumer 

prices first and work backwards to derive manufacturing selling price. 

7.1 DOE needs to translate market (or consumer purchasing) prices for lamps into 

manufacturing selling prices. DOE estimates that manufacturing selling price is approximately 

60% of consumer (end-user) prices for GSFL and approximately 70% of consumer prices for 

IRL. Referencing DOE’s medium prices in Table 7.3.1 through Table 7.3.8 in Chapter 7 of the 

technical support document (TSD), please comment on these approximations of manufacturing 

selling price. Also, please comment on whether these percentages vary with lamp type or 

efficacy.

7.2 One potential effect of standards is to commoditize what are currently premium products. 

Do profit levels vary by product class? Do profit levels vary by efficiency level? Please explain 

why or why not?

7.3 Do you expect changes in your estimated profitability following the new energy 

conservation standard? If so, please explain why.

8 CUMULATIVE REGULATORY BURDEN 

Cumulative regulatory burden refers to the burden that industry faces from overlapping effects of 

new or revised DOE standards and/or other regulatory actions affecting the same products or 

industry.

8.1 Are there other recent or impending regulations that lamp manufacturers face (from DOE 

or otherwise)? What level of investment are you expecting to incur as a result of these 

regulations?

8.2 Under what circumstances would you be able to coordinate any expenditures related to 

other regulations thereby lessening the cumulative burden?

9 EXPORTS / FOREIGN COMPETITION / OUTSOURCING
13A-10

Disparity between domestic and foreign energy conservation standards could impact exports or 

imports. Labor content and material changes, resulting from energy conservation standards, may 

impact sourcing decisions.

9.1 What percentage of your company’s GSFL and IRL sales are domestically 

manufactured? Absent standards, are production facilities being relocated to foreign countries? 

Would new energy conservation standards impact your domestic vs. foreign manufacturing 

decision? 

9.2 Does your company export domestically manufactured GSFLs and/or IRLs? If so, to 

what regions do you export your equipment? What percentage of sales can be attributed to each?

9.3 Would a new standard be expected to affect your export sales? What would the resulting 

impact be, if any, on your manufacturing operations and profitability?

9.4 Are your foreign exports of domestically manufactured lamps affected by energy 

conservation standards in other countries?

9.5 What percentage of the U.S. market for GSFLs and IRLs has been captured by foreign 

competition? Would standards have an impact on foreign competition? 

9.6 What is your outlook for the future operation of your company and the GSFL and IRL 

industries with regard to exports?

10 DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IMPACT ASSESSMENT

The impact of new energy conservation standards on employment is an important consideration 

in the rulemaking process. This section of the interview guide seeks to explore current trends in 

lamp production employment and solicit manufacturer views on how domestic employment 

patterns might be affected by new energy conservation standards.

10.1 Would your domestic employment levels change under new energy conservation 

standards? If so, please explain how they would change.

10.2 Would the workforce skills necessary under new energy conservation standards require 

extensive retraining or replacement of employees?

11 CONSOLIDATION

New energy conservation standards can alter the competitive dynamics of the market. This can 

include prompting companies to enter or exit the market, or to merge. DOE and the Justice 

Department are both interested in any potential reduction in competition that would result from a 

new energy conservation standard.

11.1 In the absence of new standards, do you expect any industry consolidation? Please 

describe your expectations.
13A-11

11.2 How would new standards affect your ability to compete?

11.3 Could new standards disproportionately advance or harm the competitive positions of 

some firms (e.g., small businesses)?

13A.1.2 General Service Fluorescent and Incandescent Reflector Lamps Energy 

Conservation Standards Rulemaking Manufacturer Impact Analysis Interview Guide for 

Small Businesses

1. Are you aware of the US Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) on-going rulemaking to 

establish national minimum energy conservation standards for certain general service fluorescent 

lamps and incandescent reflector lamps? Would you like to be added to DOE’s email database 

for updates relating to this rulemaking? 

2. We are assessing the impacts of a potential minimum energy conservation standard on 

small businesses. Is your company a small business (defined as less than 1,000 employees by the 

US Small Business Administration (SBA), including all subsidiaries and parent companies, and 

employees in all countries where you operate)? 

3. Would a minimum energy conservation standard set higher than current standards for 

incandescent reflector lamps or general service fluorescent lamps (whereby all your competitors 

would also required to meet the same standard), cause any burdens on your business? If so, 

please explain. Please consider costs such as new designs, capital investment, prototype testing, 

and marketing that might be required. 

4. Are there any reasons that a small business such as yours might be at a competitive 

disadvantage relative to a larger business under mandatory energy conservation standards? 

Please consider such factors as technical expertise, capital budgets, bulk purchasing power for 

materials, etc. 
13A-12

13A.2 GOVERNMENT REGULATORY IMPACT MODEL

13A. 2.1 Introduction and Purpose

The purpose of the Government Regulatory Impact Model (GRIM) is to help quantify the 

impacts of energy conservation standards and other regulations on manufacturers. The basic 

mode of analysis is to estimate the change in value of the industry or manufacturers(s) following 

a regulation or a series of regulations. The model structure also allows an analysis of multiple 

products with regulations taking effect over a period of time, and of multiple regulations on the 

same products.

Industry net present value is defined, for the purpose of this analysis, as the discounted 

sum of industry free cash flows plus a discounted terminal value. The model calculates the 

actual cash flows by year and then determines the present value of those cash flows both without 

an energy conservation standard (i.e., the base case) and under different trial standard levels 

(TSLs).

Output from the model consists of summary financial metrics, graphs of major variables, 

and, when appropriate, access to the complete cash flow calculation.

 13A.2.2 Model Description

The basic structure of the GRIM is a standard annual cash flow analysis that uses 

manufacturer selling prices, manufacturing costs, a shipments forecast, and financial parameters 

as inputs and accepts a set of regulatory conditions as changes in costs and investments. The 

cash flow analysis is separated into two major blocks: income and cash flow. The income 

calculation determines net operating profit after taxes. The cash flow calculation converts net 

operating profit after taxes into an annual cash flow by including investment and non-cash items. 

Below are definitions of listed items on the printout of the output sheet (see Section J.2.3).

Unit Sales: Total annual shipments for the industry were obtained from the National 

Impact Analysis Spreadsheet;

Revenues: Annual revenues - computed by multiplying equipment unit price at each 

efficiency level by the appropriate manufacturer markup;

Labor: The portion of cost of goods sold (COGS) that includes direct labor, 

commissions, dismissal pay, bonuses, vacation, sick leave, social security contributions, fringe, 

and assembly labor up-time; 

Material: The portion of COGS that includes materials;

Overhead: The portion of COGS that includes indirect labor, indirect material, energy 

use, maintenance, depreciation, property taxes, and insurance related to assets. While included 

in overhead, the depreciation is shown as a separate line item;
13A-13

Depreciation: Annual depreciation computed as a percentage of COGS. While included 

in overhead, the depreciation is shown as a separate line item;

Stranded Assets: In the year the standard becomes effective, a one time write-off of 

stranded assets is accounted for; 

Standard SG&A: Selling, general, and administrative costs are computed as a percentage 

of Revenues (2);

R&D: GRIM separately accounts for ordinary research and development (R&D) as a 

percentage of Revenues (2);

Product Conversion Expense: Product conversion expenses are one-time investments in 

research, development, testing, and marketing focused on making product designs comply with 

the amended energy conservation standard. GRIM allocates these costs over the period between 

the standard’s announcement and effective dates;

Earnings Before Interest and Taxes (EBIT): Includes profits before deductions for 

interest paid and taxes;

EBIT as a Percentage of Sales: GRIM calculates EBIT as a percentage of sales to 

compare with the industry’s average reported in financial statements;

Taxes: Taxes on EBIT (11) are calculated by multiplying the tax rate contained in Major 

Assumptions by EBIT (11).

Net Operating Profits After Taxes (NOPAT): Computed by subtracting Cost of Goods 

Sold ((3) to (6)), SG&A (8), R&D (9), Product Conversion Expense (10), and Taxes (13) from 

Revenues (2).

NOPAT repeated: NOPAT is repeated in the Statement of Cash Flows;

Depreciation repeated: Depreciation is added back in the Statement of Cash Flows 

including stranded assets because both are non-cash expenses;

Change in Working Capital: Change in cash tied up in accounts receivable, inventory, 

and other cash investments necessary to support operations is calculated by multiplying working 

capital (as a percentage of revenues) by the change in annual revenues. 

Cash Flow From Operations: Calculated by taking NOPAT (15), adding back non-cash 

items such as a Depreciation (16), and subtracting out Change in Working Capital (17);

Ordinary Capital Expenditures: Ordinary investments in property, plant, and equipment 

to maintain and replace existing production assets, computed as a percentage of Revenues (2);

Conversion Capital Expenditures: Conversion capital expenditures are one-time 

investments in property, plant, and equipment to adapt or change existing production facilities so 

that new product designs can be fabricated and assembled under the new regulation;
13A-14

Capital Investment: Total investments in property, plant, and equipment are computed by 

adding Ordinary Capital Expenditures (19) and Conversion Capital Expenditures (20);

Free Cash Flow: Annual cash flow from operations and investments; computed by 

subtracting Capital Investment (21) from Cash Flow from Operations (18);

Terminal Value: Estimate of the continuing value of the industry after 2042. Computed 

by growing the Free Cash Flow in year 2042 at a constant rate in perpetuity;

Present Value Factor: Factor used to calculate an estimate of the present value of an 

amount to be received in the future;

Discounted Cash Flow: Free Cash Flows (22) multiplied by the Present Value Factor 

(24). For 2042 the discounted cash flow includes the discounted Terminal Value (23); and

Industry Value thru 2042: The sum of Discounted Cash Flows (25).
13A-15

13A.2.3 Detailed Cash Flow Example
13A-16

13A.3 MIA RESULTS

13A.3.1 Impacts on GSFL Industry Net Present Value

Table 13A.3.1.1 Changes in Industry Net Present Value for the GSFL Industry with a Flat 

Markup Scenario, Existing Technologies Base Case – Market Segment Based – Shift in 

Efficacy Distribution

Units Base Case Trial Standard Level

1 2 3 4 5

INPV 2008$ Millions 639 708 692 710 593 640

Change in INPV 2008$ Millions - 69 53 72 -46 1

(%) - 10.81% 8.33% 11.22% -7.17% -0.16%

Table 13A.3.1.1 Changes in Industry Net Present Value for the GSFL Industry with a 

Four-Tier Markup Scenario, Existing Technologies Base Case – Market Segment Based –

Shift in Efficacy Distribution

Units Base 

Case

Trial Standard Level

1 2 3 4 5

INPV 2008$ 

Millions 533 677 650 459 398 325

Change in INPV

2008$ 

Millions - 144 117 -74 -135 -208

(%) - 27.02% 21.94% -13.87% -25.25% -39.08%

Table 13A.3.1.2 Changes in Industry Net Present Value for the GSFL Industry with a Flat 

Markup Scenario, Existing Technologies Base Case – Market Segment Based – Roll-up in 

Efficacy Distribution

Units Base 

Case

Trial Standard Level

1 2 3 4 5

INPV 2008$ 

Millions 639 704 685 703 575 635

Change in INPV

2008$ 

Millions - 65 47 64 -64 -4

(%) - 10.16% 7.28% 10.01% -10.04% -0.59%
13A-17

Table 13A.3.1.3 Changes in Industry Net Present Value for the GSFL Industry with a 

Four-Tier Markup Scenario, Existing Technologies Base Case – Market Segment Based –

Roll-up in Efficacy Distribution

Units Base 

Case

Trial Standard Level

1 2 3 4 5

INPV 2008$ 

Millions 533 667 633 433 367 316

Change in INPV

2008$ 

Millions - 134 101 -100 0166 -217

(%) - 25.08% 18.86% -18.74 -31.21% -40.70%

Table 13A.3.1.4 Changes in Industry Net Present Value for the GSFL Industry with a Flat 

Markup Scenario, Existing Technologies Base Case – High Consumer Sophistication –

Shift in Efficacy Distribution

Units Base 

Case

Trial Standard Level

1 2 3 4 5

INPV 2008$ 

Millions 639 697 695 721 635 671

Change in INPV

2008$ 

Millions - 58 56 82 -4 33

(%) - 9.11% 8.83% 12.82% -0.64% 5.09%

Table 13A.3.1.5 Changes in Industry Net Present Value for the GSFL Industry with a 

Four-Tier Markup Scenario, Existing Technologies Base Case – High Consumer 

Sophistication – Shift in Efficacy Distribution

Units Base 

Case

Trial Standard Level

1 2 3 4 5

INPV 2008$ 

Millions 533 645 627 506 523 328

Change in INPV

2008$ 

Millions - 112 94 -27 -10 -205

(%) - 21.02% 17.69% -5.13% -1.87% -38.45%

Table 13A.3.1.6 Changes in Industry Net Present Value for the GSFL Industry with a Flat 

Markup Scenario, Existing Technologies Base Case – High Consumer Sophistication –

Roll-up in Efficacy Distribution

Units Base 

Case

Trial Standard Level

1 2 3 4 5

INPV 2008$ 

Millions 639 686 683 702 590 662

Change in INPV

2008$ 

Millions - 48 44 63 -49 23

(%) - 7.46% 6.90% 9.91% -7.65% 3.61%
13A-18

Table 13A.3.1.7 Changes in Industry Net Present Value for the GSFL Industry with a 

Four-Tier Markup Scenario, Existing Technologies Base Case – High Consumer 

Sophistication – Roll-up in Efficacy Distribution

Units Base 

Case

Trial Standard Level

1 2 3 4 5

INPV 2008$ 

Millions 533 625 578 431 427 310

Change in INPV

2008$ 

Millions - 92 45 -102 -106 -223

(%) - 17.29% 8.52% -19.06% -19.90% -41.75%

Table 13A.3.1.8 Changes in Industry Net Present Value for the GSFL Industry with a Flat 

Markup Scenario, Emerging Technologies Base Case – Market Segment Based – Shift in 

Efficacy Distribution

Units Base 

Case

Trial Standard Level

1 2 3 4 5

INPV 2008$ 

Millions 601 670 654 667 550 593

Change in INPV

2008$ 

Millions - 68 52 65 -51 -9

(%) - 11.35% 8.72% 10.87% -8.49% -1.43%

Table 13A.3.1.9 Changes in Industry Net Present Value for the GSFL Industry with a 

Four-Tier Markup Scenario, Emerging Technologies Base Case – Market Segment Based –

Shift in Efficacy Distribution

Units Base 

Case

Trial Standard Level

1 2 3 4 5

INPV 2008$ 

Millions 527 672 645 457 395 324

Change in INPV

2008$ 

Millions - 144 118 -70 -132 -203

(%) - 27.39% 22.32% -13.30% -25.06% -38.50%

Table 13A.3.1.10 Changes in Industry Net Present Value for the GSFL Industry with a Flat 

Markup Scenario, Emerging Technologies Base Case – Market Segment Based – Roll-up in 

Efficacy Distribution

Units Base 

Case

Trial Standard Level

1 2 3 4 5

INPV 2008$ 

Millions 601 666 648 660 535 588

Change in INPV

2008$ 

Millions - 64 46 59 -67 -13

(%) - 10.72% 7.66% 9.78% -11.07% -2.17%
13A-19

Table 13A.3.1.11 Changes in Industry Net Present Value for the GSFL Industry with a 

Four-Tier Markup Scenario, Emerging Technologies Base Case – Market Segment Based –

Roll-up in Efficacy Distribution

Units Base 

Case

Trial Standard Level

1 2 3 4 5

INPV 2008$ 

Millions 527 662 629 432 365 316

Change in INPV

2008$ 

Millions - 134 102 -95 -162 -211

(%) - 25.47% 19.29% -18.08% -30.74% -40.04%

Table 13A.3.1.12 Changes in Industry Net Present Value for the GSFL Industry with a Flat 

Markup Scenario, Emerging Technologies Base Case – High Consumer Sophistication –

Shift in Efficacy Distribution

Units Base 

Case

Trial Standard Level

1 2 3 4 5

INPV 2008$ 

Millions 601 659 657 676 590 623

Change in INPV

2008$ 

Millions

- 57 55 75 -11 22

(%) - 9.50% 9.21% 12.46% -1.88% 3.59%

Table 13A.3.1.13 Changes in Industry Net Present Value for the GSFL Industry with a 

Four-Tier Markup Scenario, Emerging Technologies Base Case – High Consumer 

Sophistication – Shift in Efficacy Distribution

Units Base 

Case

Trial Standard Level

1 2 3 4 5

INPV 2008$ 

Millions 527 639 622 504 521 329

Change in INPV

2008$ 

Millions - 111 95 -23 -6 -198

(%) - 21.11% 17.94% -4.45% -1.21% -37.63%

Table 13A.3.1.14 Changes in Industry Net Present Value for the GSFL Industry with a Flat 

Markup Scenario, Emerging Technologies Base Case – High Consumer Sophistication –

Roll-up in Efficacy Distribution

Units Base 

Case

Trial Standard Level

1 2 3 4 5

INPV 2008$ 

Millions 601 649 645 660 550 614

Change in INPV

2008$ 

Millions - 47 44 58 -51 13

(%) - 7.85% 7.26% 9.67% -8.52% 2.13%
13A-20

Table 13A.3.1.15 Changes in Industry Net Present Value for the GSFL Industry with a 

Four-Tier Markup Scenario, Emerging Technologies Base Case – High Consumer 

Sophistication – Roll-up in Efficacy Distribution

Units Base 

Case

Trial Standard Level

1 2 3 4 5

INPV 2008$ 

Millions 527 620 574 430 427 312

Change in INPV

2008$ 

Millions - 92 47 -97 -100 -215

(%) - 17.52% 8.83% -18.39% -19.00% -40.77%

13A.3.2 Impacts on GSFL Annual Cash Flow

Figure 13A.3.2.1 Annual Net Cash Flow for GSFL Industry with a Flat Markup Scenario, 

Existing Technologies Base Case – Market Segment Based – Shift in Efficacy Distribution 
13A-21

$(60)

$(40)

$(20)

$-

$20 

$40 

$60 

$80 

$100 

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2008$ Millions

Year

Baseline TSL 1 TSL 2 TSL 3 TSL 4 TSL 5

Energy Conservation Standards 

Effective Date - July 2012

N o Emerging Technology Market Segment Based Product Shipment Scenario Shift Shipments 

4-Tier Markup Markup Scenario

Figure 13A.3.2.1 Annual Net Cash Flow for GSFL Industry with a Four-Tier Markup 

Scenario, Existing Technologies Base Case – Market Segment Based – Shift in Efficacy 

Distribution

Figure 13A.3.2.2 Annual Net Cash Flow for GSFL Industry with a Flat Markup Scenario, 

Existing Technologies Base Case – Market Segment Based – Roll-up in Efficacy 

Distribution 
13A-22

Figure 13A.3.2.3 Annual Net Cash Flow for GSFL Industry with a Four-Tier Markup 

Scenario, Existing Technologies Base Case – Market Segment Based – Roll-up in Efficacy 

Distribution

Figure 13A.3.2.4 Annual Net Cash Flow for GSFL Industry with a Flat Markup Scenario, 

Existing Technologies Base Case – High Consumer Sophistication – Shift in Efficacy 

Distribution 
13A-23

Figure 13A.3.2.5 Annual Net Cash Flow for GSFL Industry with a Four-Tier Markup 

Scenario, Existing Technologies Base Case – High Consumer Sophistication – Shift in 

Efficacy Distribution 

Figure 13A.3.2.6 Annual Net Cash Flow for GSFL Industry with a Flat Markup Scenario, 

Existing Technologies Base Case – High Consumer Sophistication – Roll-up in Efficacy 

Distribution
13A-24

Figure 13A.3.2.7 Annual Net Cash Flow for GSFL Industry with a Four-Tier Markup 

Scenario, Existing Technologies Base Case – High Consumer Sophistication – Roll-up in 

Efficacy Distribution 

Figure 13A.3.2.8 Annual Net Cash Flow for GSFL Industry with a Flat Markup Scenario, 

Emerging Technologies Base Case – Market Segment Based – Shift in Efficacy Distribution 
13A-25

Figure 13A.3.2.9 Annual Net Cash Flow for GSFL Industry with a Four-Tier Markup 

Scenario, Emerging Technologies Base Case – Market Segment Based – Shift in Efficacy 

Distribution

Figure 13A.3.2.10 Annual Net Cash Flow for GSFL Industry with a Flat Markup Scenario, 

Emerging Technologies Base Case – Market Segment Based – Roll-up in Efficacy 

Distribution
13A-26

Figure 13A.3.2.11 Annual Net Cash Flow for GSFL Industry with a Four-Tier Markup 

Scenario, Emerging Technologies Base Case – Market Segment Based – Roll-up in Efficacy 

Distribution 

Figure 13A.3.2.12 Annual Net Cash Flow for GSFL Industry with a Flat Markup Scenario, 

Emerging Technologies Base Case – High Consumer Sophistication – Shift in Efficacy 

Distribution 
13A-27

Figure 13A.3.2.13 Annual Net Cash Flow for GSFL Industry with a Four-Tier Markup 

Scenario, Emerging Technologies Base Case – High Consumer Sophistication – Shift in 

Efficacy Distribution

Figure 13A.3.2.14 Annual Net Cash Flow for GSFL Industry with a Flat Markup Scenario, 

Emerging Technologies Base Case – High Consumer Sophistication – Roll-up in Efficacy 

Distribution
13A-28

Figure 13A.3.2.15 Annual Net Cash Flow for GSFL Industry with a Four-Tier Markup 

Scenario, Emerging Technologies Base Case – High Consumer Sophistication – Roll-up in 

Efficacy Distribution 

13A.3.3 Impacts on IRL Industry Net Present Value

Table 13A.3.3.1 Changes in Industry Net Present Value for IRL Industry Under the 

Existing Technologies Base Case - BR Substitution Scenario - Shift in Efficacy Distribution

- Normal Lifetime Scenario

Units Base 

Case

Trial Standard Level

1 2 3 4 5

INPV (2008$ 

millions) 301 293 233 221 199 190

Change in INPV

(2008$ 

millions) - (8) (66) (81) (102) (111)

(%) - -2.80% -22.71% -26.78% -34.02% -36.90%
13A-29

Table 13A.3.3.2 Changes in Industry Net Present Value for IRL Industry Under the 

Existing Technologies Base Case - BR Substitution Scenario – Roll-Up in Efficacy 

Distribution – Normal Lifetime Scenario

Units Base 

Case

Trial Standard Level

1 2 3 4 5

INPV (2008$ 

millions)

301 293 232 222 198 190

Change in INPV

(2008$ 

millions) - (8) (69) (79) (103) (111)

(%) - -2.80% -23.00% -26.16% -34.30% -36.90%

Table 13A.3.3.3 Changes in Industry Net Present Value for IRL Industry Under the 

Existing Technologies Base Case – CFL Substitution Scenario - Shift in Efficacy 

Distribution – Normal Lifetime Scenario

Units Base 

Case

Trial Standard Level

1 2 3 4 5

INPV (2008$ 

millions) 301 294 232 220 197 191

Change in INPV

(2008$ 

millions) - (8) (69) (82) (105) (111)

(%) - -2.57% -22.99% -27.08% -34.76% -36.71%

Table 13A.3.3.4 Changes in Industry Net Present Value for IRL Industry Under the 

Existing Technologies Base Case – CFL Substitution Scenario – Roll-Up in Efficacy 

Distribution – Normal Lifetime Scenario

Units Base 

Case

Trial Standard Level

1 2 3 4 5

INPV (2008$ 

millions) 301 294 231 222 196 191

Change in INPV

(2008$ 

millions) - (8) (70) (80) (106) (111)

(%) - -2.57% -23.28% -26.46% -35.04% -36.71%

Table 13A.33.3.5 Changes in Industry Net Present Value for IRL Industry Under the 

Emerging Technologies Base Case – BR Substitution Scenario - Shift in Efficacy 

Distribution – Normal Lifetime Scenario

Units Base 

Case

Trial Standard Level

1 2 3 4 5

INPV (2008$ 

millions) 221 207 159 141 125 117

Change in INPV

(2008$ 

millions) - (14) (62) (79) (95) (103)

(%) - -6.27% -27.89% -35.99% -43.19% -46.90%
13A-30

Table 13A.3.3.6 Changes in Industry Net Present Value for IRL Industry Under the 

Emerging Technologies Base Case – BR Substitution Scenario – Roll-Up in Efficacy 

Distribution – Normal Lifetime Scenario

Units Base 

Case

Trial Standard Level

1 2 3 4 5

INPV (2008$ 

millions) 221 207 159 142 125 117

Change in INPV

(2008$ 

millions) - (14) (62) (79) (595) (103)

(%) - -6.27% -27.96% -35.85% -43.25% -46.90%

Table 13A.3.3.7 Changes in Industry Net Present Value for IRL Industry Under the 

Emerging Technologies Base Case – CFL Substitution Scenario - Shift in Efficacy 

Distribution – Normal Lifetime Scenario

Units Base 

Case

Trial Standard Level

1 2 3 4 5

INPV (2008$ 

millions) 221 205 158 139 123 117

Change in INPV

(2008$ 

millions) - (15) (63) (81) (98) (104)

(%) - -6.87% -28.52% -36.94% -44.30% -47.18%

Table 13A.3.3.8 Changes in Industry Net Present Value for IRL Industry Under the 

Emerging Technologies Base Case – CFL Substitution Scenario – Roll-Up in Efficacy 

Distribution – Normal Lifetime Scenario

Units Base 

Case

Trial Standard Level

1 2 3 4 5

INPV (2008$ 

millions) 221 205 158 139 123 117

Change in INPV

(2008$ 

millions) - (15) (63) (81) (98) (104)

(%) - -6.87% -28.58% -36.80% -44.36% -47.18%

Table 13A.3.3.9 Changes in Industry Net Present Value for IRL Industry Under the 

Existing Technologies Base Case - BR Substitution Scenario - Shift in Efficacy Distribution 

- Baseline Lifetime Scenario

Units Base 

Case

Trial Standard Level

1 2 3 4 5

INPV (2008$ 

millions) 301 293 232 218 261 258

Change in INPV

(2008$ 

millions) - (8) (69) (83) (40) (43)

(%) - -2.80% -22.94% -27.49% -13.22% -14.24%
13A-31

Table 13A.3.3.10 Changes in Industry Net Present Value for IRL Industry Under the 

Existing Technologies Base Case - BR Substitution Scenario – Roll-Up in Efficacy 

Distribution – Baseline Lifetime Scenario

Units Base 

Case

Trial Standard Level

1 2 3 4 5

INPV (2008$ 

millions) 301 293 232 222 281 258

Change in INPV

(2008$ 

millions) - (8) (69) (79) (21) (43)

(%) - -2.80% -23.00% -26.16% -6.81% -14.24%

Table 13A.3.3.11 Changes in Industry Net Present Value for IRL Industry Under the 

Existing Technologies Base Case – CFL Substitution Scenario - Shift in Efficacy 

Distribution – Baseline Lifetime Scenario

Units Base 

Case

Trial Standard Level

1 2 3 4 5

INPV (2008$ 

millions) 301 294 231 218 258 288

Change in INPV

(2008$ 

millions) - (8) (70) (84) (43) (14)

(%) - -2.57% -23.22% -27.78% -14.39% -4.55%

Table 13A.3.3.12 Changes in Industry Net Present Value for IRL Industry Under the 

Existing Technologies Base Case – CFL Substitution Scenario – Roll-Up in Efficacy 

Distribution – Baseline Lifetime Scenario

Units Base 

Case

Trial Standard Level

1 2 3 4 5

INPV (2008$ 

millions) 301 294 231 222 277 288

Change in INPV

(2008$ 

millions) - (8) (70) (80) (24) (14)

(%) - -2.57% -23.28% -26.46% -7.98% -4.55%

Table 13A.3.3.13 Changes in Industry Net Present Value for IRL Industry Under the 

Emerging Technologies Base Case – BR Substitution Scenario - Shift in Efficacy 

Distribution – Baseline Lifetime Scenario

Units Base 

Case

Trial Standard Level

1 2 3 4 5

INPV (2008$ 

millions) 221 207 159 141 164 149

Change in INPV

(2008$ 

millions) - (14) (62) (80) (57) (72)

(%) - -6.27% -27.94% -36.14% -25.80% -32.53%
13A-32

Table 13A.3.3.14 Changes in Industry Net Present Value for IRL Industry Under the 

Emerging Technologies Base Case – BR Substitution Scenario – Roll-Up in Efficacy 

Distribution – Baseline Lifetime Scenario

Units Base 

Case

Trial Standard Level

1 2 3 4 5

INPV (2008$ 

millions) 221 207 159 142 167 149

Change in INPV

(2008$ 

millions) - (14) (62) (79) (54) (72)

(%) - -6.27% -27.96% -35.85% -24.38% -32.53%

Table 13A.33.3.15 Changes in Industry Net Present Value for IRL Industry Under the 

Emerging Technologies Base Case – CFL Substitution Scenario - Shift in Efficacy 

Distribution – Baseline Lifetime Scenario

Units Base 

Case

Trial Standard Level

1 2 3 4 5

INPV (2008$ 

millions) 221 205 158 139 160 171

Change in INPV

(2008$ 

millions) - (15) (63) (82) (61) (49)

(%) - -6.87% -28.57% -37.09% -27.52% -22.35%

Table 13A.3.3.16 Changes in Industry Net Present Value for IRL Industry Under the 

Emerging Technologies Base Case – CFL Substitution Scenario – Roll-Up in Efficacy 

Distribution – Baseline Lifetime Scenario

Units Base 

Case

Trial Standard Level

1 2 3 4 5

INPV (2008$ 

millions) 221 205 158 139 163 171

Change in INPV

(2008$ 

millions) - (15) (63) (81) (58) (49)

(%) - -6.87% -28.58% -36.80% -26.11% -22.35%
13A-33

13A.3.4 Impacts on IRL Annual Cash Flow

Figure 13A.3.16 Annual Net Cash Flow for IRL Industry Under the Existing Technologies 

Base Case - BR Substitution Scenario - Shift in Efficacy Distribution – Normal Lifetime 

Scenario

Figure 13A.3.2 Annual Net Cash Flow for IRL Industry Under the Existing Technologies 

Base Case - BR Substitution Scenario – Roll-Up in Efficacy Distribution – Normal Lifetime 

Scenario
13A-34

Figure 13A.3.3 Annual Net Cash Flow for IRL Industry Under the Existing Technologies 

Base Case – CFL Substitution Scenario - Shift in Efficacy Distribution – Normal Lifetime 

Scenario

Figure 13A.3.4 Annual Net Cash Flow for IRL Industry Under the Existing Technologies 

Base Case – CFL Substitution Scenario – Roll-Up in Efficacy Distribution – Normal 

Lifetime Scenario
13A-35

Figure 13A.33.4.5 Annual Net Cash Flow for IRL Industry Under the Emerging 

Technologies Base Case – BR Substitution Scenario - Shift in Efficacy Distribution –

Normal Lifetime Scenario 

$(60.0)

$(40.0)

$(20.0)

$-

$20.0 

$40.0 

$60.0 

$80.0 

$100.0 

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2008$ Millions

Year

Baseline TSL 1 TSL 2 TSL 3 TSL 4 TSL 5

Energy Conservation Standards 

Effective Date - July 2012

Emerging Base Case BR Product Shipment Scenario Rollup Shipments 

Figure 13A.3.6 Annual Net Cash Flow for IRL Industry Under the Emerging Technologies 

Base Case – BR Substitution Scenario – Roll-Up in Efficacy Distribution – Normal Lifetime 

Scenario
13A-36

$(60.0)

$(40.0)

$(20.0)

$-

$20.0 

$40.0 

$60.0 

$80.0 

$100.0 

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2008$ Millions

Year

Baseline TSL 1 TSL 2 TSL 3 TSL 4 TSL 5

Energy Conservation Standards 

Effective Date - July 2012

Emerging Base Case CFL Product Shipment Scenario Shift Shipments 

Figure 13A.3.7 Annual Net Cash Flow for IRL Industry Under the Emerging Technologies 

Base Case – CFL Substitution Scenario - Shift in Efficacy Distribution – Normal Lifetime 

Scenario

$(60.0)

$(40.0)

$(20.0)

$-

$20.0 

$40.0 

$60.0 

$80.0 

$100.0 

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2008$ Millions

Year

Baseline TSL 1 TSL 2 TSL 3 TSL 4 TSL 5

Energy Conservation Standards 

Effective Date - July 2012

Emerging Base Case CFL Product Shipment Scenario Rollup Shipments 

Figure 13A.3.8 Annual Net Cash Flow for IRL Industry Under the Emerging Technologies 

Base Case – CFL Substitution Scenario – Roll-Up in Efficacy Distribution – Normal 

Lifetime Scenario
13A-37

Figure 13A.3.9 Annual Net Cash Flow for IRL Industry Under the Existing Technologies 

Base Case - BR Substitution Scenario - Shift in Efficacy Distribution – Baseline Lifetime 

Scenario

Figure 13A.3.10 Annual Net Cash Flow for IRL Industry Under the Existing Technologies 

Base Case - BR Substitution Scenario – Roll-Up in Efficacy Distribution – Baseline

Lifetime Scenario
13A-38

Figure 13A.3.11 Annual Net Cash Flow for IRL Industry Under the Existing Technologies 

Base Case – CFL Substitution Scenario - Shift in Efficacy Distribution – Baseline Lifetime 

Scenario

Figure 13A.3.12 Annual Net Cash Flow for IRL Industry Under the Existing Technologies 

Base Case – CFL Substitution Scenario – Roll-Up in Efficacy Distribution – Baseline

Lifetime Scenario
13A-39

Figure 13A.33.4.13 Annual Net Cash Flow for IRL Industry Under the Emerging 

Technologies Base Case – BR Substitution Scenario - Shift in Efficacy Distribution –

Baseline Lifetime Scenario 

Figure 13A.3.14 Annual Net Cash Flow for IRL Industry Under the Emerging 

Technologies Base Case – BR Substitution Scenario – Roll-Up in Efficacy Distribution –

Baseline Lifetime Scenario
13A-40

Figure 13A.3.15 Annual Net Cash Flow for IRL Industry Under the Emerging 

Technologies Base Case – CFL Substitution Scenario - Shift in Efficacy Distribution –

Baseline Lifetime Scenario

Figure 13A.3.16 Annual Net Cash Flow for IRL Industry Under the Emerging 

Technologies Base Case – CFL Substitution Scenario – Roll-Up in Efficacy Distribution –

Baseline Lifetime Scenario
13A-41

13A.3.5 Impacts on IRL Employment

Table 13A.3.5.16 Change in the Average Number of Domestic Employees in the IRL 

Industry Under the Existing Technologies Base Case – BR Substitution Scenario - Shift in 

Efficacy Distribution – Normal Lifetime Scenario

Baseline TSL 1 TSL 2 TSL 3 TSL 4 TSL 5

Average Number of 

Domestic IRL Employees 

from 2012 – 2042

1,400 1,575 1,348 1,538 1,419 1,428

Change in the Average 

Number of Domestic IRL 

Employees from 2012 –

2042

- 175 -51 139 19 28

Table 13A.3.5.17 Change in the Average Number of Domestic Employees in the IRL 

Industry Under the Existing Technologies Base Case – BR Substitution Scenario – Roll-Up 

in Efficacy Distribution – Normal Lifetime Scenario

Baseline TSL 1 TSL 2 TSL 3 TSL 4 TSL 5

Average Number of 

Domestic IRL Employees 

from 2012 – 2042

1,400 1,575 1,341 1,557 1,411 1,428

Change in the Average 

Number of Domestic IRL 

Employees from 2012 –

2042

- 175 -58 158 12 28

Table 13A.3 Change in the Average Number of Domestic Employees in the IRL Industry 

Under the Existing Technologies Base Case – CFL Substitution Scenario - Shift in Efficacy 

Distribution – Normal Lifetime Scenario

Baseline TSL 1 TSL 2 TSL 3 TSL 4 TSL 5

Average Number of 

Domestic IRL Employees 

from 2012 – 2042

1,400 1,579 1,340 1,529 1,398 1,429

Change in the Average 

Number of Domestic IRL 

Employees from 2012 –

2042

- 179 -59 130 -1 29
13A-42

Table 13A.3 Change in the Average Number of Domestic Employees in the IRL Industry 

Under the Existing Technologies Base Case – CFL Substitution Scenario – Roll-Up in 

Efficacy Distribution – Normal Lifetime Scenario

Baseline TSL 1 TSL 2 TSL 3 TSL 4 TSL 5

Average Number of 

Domestic IRL Employees 

from 2012 – 2042

1,400 1,579 1,333 1,548 1,391 1.429

Change in the Average 

Number of Domestic IRL 

Employees from 2012 –

2042

- 179 -66 149 -9 29

Table 13A.3 Change in the Average Number of Domestic Employees in the IRL Industry 

Under the Emerging Technologies Base Case – BR Substitution Scenario - Shift in Efficacy 

Distribution – Normal Lifetime Scenario

Baseline TSL 1 TSL 2 TSL 3 TSL 4 TSL 5

Average Number of 

Domestic IRL Employees 

from 2012 – 2042

707 819 664 779 698 706

Change in the Average 

Number of Domestic IRL 

Employees from 2012 –

2042

- 113 -42 73 -8 0

Table 13A.3 Change in the Average Number of Domestic Employees in the IRL Industry 

Under the Emerging Technologies Base Case – BR Substitution Scenario – Roll-Up in 

Efficacy Distribution – Normal Lifetime Scenario

Baseline TSL 1 TSL 2 TSL 3 TSL 4 TSL 5

Average Number of 

Domestic IRL Employees 

from 2012 – 2042

707 819 664 781 698 706

Change in the Average 

Number of Domestic IRL 

Employees from 2012 –

2042

- 113 -43 75 -9 0
13A-43

Table 13A.3 Change in the Average Number of Domestic Employees in the IRL Industry 

Under the Emerging Technologies Base Case – CFL Substitution Scenario - Shift in 

Efficacy Distribution – Normal Lifetime Scenario

Baseline TSL 1 TSL 2 TSL 3 TSL 4 TSL 5

Average Number of 

Domestic IRL Employees 

from 2012 – 2042

707 806 652 761 677 698

Change in the Average 

Number of Domestic IRL 

Employees from 2012 –

2042

- 100 -54 54 -30 -9

Table 13A.3 Change in the Average Number of Domestic Employees in the IRL Industry 

Under the Emerging Technologies Base Case – CFL Substitution Scenario – Roll-Up in 

Efficacy Distribution – Normal Lifetime Scenario

Baseline TSL 1 TSL 2 TSL 3 TSL 4 TSL 5

Average Number of 

Domestic IRL Employees 

from 2012 – 2042

707 806 652 763 676 698

Change in the Average 

Number of Domestic IRL 

Employees from 2012 –

2042

- 100 -55 56 -30 -9

Table 13A.3 Change in the Average Number of Domestic Employees in the IRL Industry 

Under the Existing Technologies Base Case – BR Substitution Scenario - Shift in Efficacy 

Distribution – Baseline Lifetime Scenario

Baseline TSL 1 TSL 2 TSL 3 TSL 4 TSL 5

Average Number of 

Domestic IRL Employees 

from 2012 – 2042

1,400 1,575 1,345 1,529 1,957 2,209

Change in the Average 

Number of Domestic IRL 

Employees from 2012 –

2042

- 175 -54 129 558 809
13A-44

Table 13A.3 Change in the Average Number of Domestic Employees in the IRL Industry 

Under the Existing Technologies Base Case – BR Substitution Scenario – Roll-Up in 

Efficacy Distribution – Baseline Lifetime Scenario

Baseline TSL 1 TSL 2 TSL 3 TSL 4 TSL 5

Average Number of 

Domestic IRL Employees 

from 2012 – 2042

1,400 1,575 1,341 1,557 2,121 2,209

Change in the Average 

Number of Domestic IRL 

Employees from 2012 –

2042

- 175 -58 158 722 809

Table 13A.3 Change in the Average Number of Domestic Employees in the IRL Industry 

Under the Existing Technologies Base Case – CFL Substitution Scenario - Shift in Efficacy 

Distribution – Baseline Lifetime Scenario

Baseline TSL 1 TSL 2 TSL 3 TSL 4 TSL 5

Average Number of 

Domestic IRL Employees 

from 2012 – 2042

1,400 1,579 1,337 1,520 1,928 2,232

Change in the Average 

Number of Domestic IRL 

Employees from 2012 –

2042

- 179 -62 120 528 832

Table 13A.3 Change in the Average Number of Domestic Employees in the IRL Industry 

Under the Existing Technologies Base Case – CFL Substitution Scenario – Roll-Up in 

Efficacy Distribution – Baseline Lifetime Scenario

Baseline TSL 1 TSL 2 TSL 3 TSL 4 TSL 5

Average Number of 

Domestic IRL Employees 

from 2012 – 2042

1,400 1,579 1,333 1,548 2,092 2,232

Change in the Average 

Number of Domestic IRL 

Employees from 2012 –

2042

- 179 -66 149 692 832
13A-45

Table 13A.3 Change in the Average Number of Domestic Employees in the IRL Industry 

Under the Emerging Technologies Base Case – BR Substitution Scenario - Shift in Efficacy

Distribution – Baseline Lifetime Scenario

Baseline TSL 1 TSL 2 TSL 3 TSL 4 TSL 5

Average Number of 

Domestic IRL Employees 

from 2012 – 2042

707 819 664 779 1,019 1,066

Change in the Average 

Number of Domestic IRL 

Employees from 2012 –

2042

- 113 -43 72 312 359

Table 13A.3 Change in the Average Number of Domestic Employees in the IRL Industry 

Under the Emerging Technologies Base Case – BR Substitution Scenario – Roll-Up in 

Efficacy Distribution – Baseline Lifetime Scenario

Baseline TSL 1 TSL 2 TSL 3 TSL 4 TSL 5

Average Number of 

Domestic IRL Employees 

from 2012 – 2042

707 819 664 781 1,034 1,066

Change in the Average 

Number of Domestic IRL 

Employees from 2012 –

2042

- 113 -43 75 328 359

Table 13A.3 Change in the Average Number of Domestic Employees in the IRL Industry 

Under the Emerging Technologies Base Case – CFL Substitution Scenario - Shift in 

Efficacy Distribution – Baseline Lifetime Scenario

Baseline TSL 1 TSL 2 TSL 3 TSL 4 TSL 5

Average Number of

Domestic IRL Employees 

from 2012 – 2042

707 806 652 760 988 1,069

Change in the Average 

Number of Domestic IRL 

Employees from 2012 –

2042

- 100 -55 53 281 363
13A-46

Table 13A.3 Change in the Average Number of Domestic Employees in the IRL Industry 

Under the Emerging Technologies Base Case – CFL Substitution Scenario – Roll-Up in 

Efficacy Distribution – Baseline Lifetime Scenario

Baseline TSL 1 TSL 2 TSL 3 TSL 4 TSL 5

Average Number of 

Domestic IRL Employees 

from 2012 – 2042

707 806 652 763 1,003 1,069

Change in the Average 

Number of Domestic IRL 

Employees from 2012 –

2042

- 100 -55 56 297 363

Figure 13A.3 through Figure 13A.3 show total annual domestic employment levels 

for each TSL calculated by the GRIM under the two base-case scenarios and the four 

standards-case shipment scenarios. 

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500 Total Domestic Employment (# of Workers)

Year

Total Employment

Baseline TSL 1 TSL 2 TSL 3 TSL 4 TSL 5

Energy Conservation 

Standards Effective Date

July 2012

Figure 13A.3 Total IRL Industry Employment by Year Under the Existing Technologies 

Base Case - BR Substitution Scenario - Shift in Efficacy Distribution – Normal Lifetime 

Scenario
13A-47

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500 Total Domestic Employment (# of Workers)

Year

Total Employment

Baseline TSL 1 TSL 2 TSL 3 TSL 4 TSL 5

Energy Conservation 

Standards Effective Date

July 2012

Figure 13A.3 Total IRL Industry Employment by Year Under the Existing Technologies 

Base Case - BR Substitution Scenario – Roll-Up in Efficacy Distribution – Normal Lifetime 

Scenario

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500 Total Domestic Employment (# of Workers)

Year

Total Employment

Baseline TSL 1 TSL 2 TSL 3 TSL 4 TSL 5

Energy Conservation 

Standards Effective Date

July 2012

Figure 13A.3 Total IRL Industry Employment by Year Under the Existing Technologies 

Base Case – CFL Substitution Scenario - Shift in Efficacy Distribution –Normal Lifetime 

Scenario
13A-48

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500 Total Domestic Employment (# of Workers)

Year

Total Employment

Baseline TSL 1 TSL 2 TSL 3 TSL 4 TSL 5

Energy Conservation 

Standards Effective Date

July 2012

Figure 13A.3 Total IRL Industry Employment by Year Under the Existing Technologies 

Base Case – CFL Substitution Scenario – Roll-Up in Efficacy Distribution – Normal 

Lifetime Scenario

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400 Total Domestic Employment (# of Workers)

Year

Total Employment

Baseline TSL 1 TSL 2 TSL 3 TSL 4 TSL 5

Energy Conservation 

Standards Effective Date

July 2012

Figure 13A.3 Total IRL Industry Employment by Year Under the Emerging Technologies 

Base Case – BR Substitution Scenario - Shift in Efficacy Distribution – Normal Lifetime 

Scenario
13A-49

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400 Total Domestic Employment (# of Workers)

Year

Total Employment

Baseline TSL 1 TSL 2 TSL 3 TSL 4 TSL 5

Energy Conservation 

Standards Effective Date

July 2012

Figure 13A.3 Total IRL Industry Employment by Year Under the Emerging Technologies 

Base Case – BR Substitution Scenario – Roll-Up in Efficacy Distribution – Normal Lifetime 

Scenario

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600 Total Domestic Employment (# of Workers)

Year

Total Employment

Baseline TSL 1 TSL 2 TSL 3 TSL 4 TSL 5

Energy Conservation 

Standards Effective Date

July 2012

Figure 13A.3 Total IRL Industry Employment by Year Under the Emerging Technologies 

Base Case – CFL Substitution Scenario - Shift in Efficacy Distribution – Normal Lifetime 

Scenario
13A-50

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600 Total Domestic Employment (# of Workers)

Year

Total Employment

Baseline TSL 1 TSL 2 TSL 3 TSL 4 TSL 5

Energy Conservation 

Standards Effective Date

July 2012

Figure 13A.3 Total IRL Industry Employment by Year Under the Emerging Technologies 

Base Case – CFL Substitution Scenario – Roll-Up in Efficacy Distribution – Normal 

Lifetime Scenario

Figure 13A.39 Total IRL Industry Employment by Year Under the Existing Technologies 

Base Case - BR Substitution Scenario - Shift in Efficacy Distribution – Baseline Lifetime 

Scenario
13A-51

Figure 13A.310 Total IRL Industry Employment by Year Under the Existing Technologies 

Base Case - BR Substitution Scenario – Roll-Up in Efficacy Distribution – Baseline

Lifetime Scenario

Figure 13A.311 Total IRL Industry Employment by Year Under the Existing Technologies 

Base Case – CFL Substitution Scenario - Shift in Efficacy Distribution –Baseline Lifetime 

Scenario
13A-52

Figure 13A.312 Total IRL Industry Employment by Year Under the Existing Technologies 

Base Case – CFL Substitution Scenario – Roll-Up in Efficacy Distribution – Baseline 

Lifetime Scenario

Figure 13A.313 Total IRL Industry Employment by Year Under the Emerging 

Technologies Base Case – BR Substitution Scenario - Shift in Efficacy Distribution –

Baseline Lifetime Scenario
13A-53

Figure 13A.314 Total IRL Industry Employment by Year Under the Emerging 

Technologies Base Case – BR Substitution Scenario – Roll-Up in Efficacy Distribution –

Baseline Lifetime Scenario

Figure 13A.315 Total IRL Industry Employment by Year Under the Emerging 

Technologies Base Case – CFL Substitution Scenario - Shift in Efficacy Distribution –

Baseline Lifetime Scenario
13A-54

Figure 13A.316 Total IRL Industry Employment by Year Under the Emerging 

Technologies Base Case – CFL Substitution Scenario – Roll-Up in Efficacy Distribution –

Baseline Lifetime Scenario