HDR1012000160031213961500Milk Production

Released December 13, 1996, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service
(NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture.  For
information on "Milk Production" call Kevin Hintzman at (202) 720-4448, office
hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET.  For assistance with general agricultural
statistics, information about NASS, its products or services, contact the
Agricultural Statistics Hotline at 1-800-727-9540 or E-mail:
NASS@NASS.USDA.GOV.  The "Milk Production" U.S. Summary is available on
AutoFax, (202) 720-2000, report 5200.



               November Milk Production Up Slightly

Milk production in the 22 major States during November totaled 10.6 billion
pounds, slightly above production in these same States in November 1995.
October revised production, at 11.0 billion pounds was virtually unchanged
from October 1995.


Production per cow in the 22 major States averaged 1,339 pounds for November,
19 pounds above November 1995.


The number of cows on farms in the 22 major States was 7.94 million head,
104,000 head less than November 1995 and 14,000 head less than October 1996.
This is the sixteenth consecutive month of decline.


During the July-September period, the 22 major States produced 32.8 billion
pounds of milk, 86.7 percent of the U.S. production.  If the remaining 28
States not surveyed monthly followed the same pattern as the 22 States, the
U.S. production would be 12.3 billion pounds for November 1996.


                              ****

                               Note:

Nass is planning to change the States that are included in the monthly milk
production estimating program starting January 1997.  The last major change
was in 1986.  We plan to drop Maryland, North Carolina, and Tennessee while
adding Arizona.  On page 5 is a table showing Arizona monthly data, starting
in 1994.


Historic monthly estimates have been created for Arizona back to 1994.
Therefore, data users will have a comparable data set for 1994, 1995, and 1996
for the 20 State monthly total.  The 20 States in the monthly estimating
program account for 85 percent of the U.S. milk production.


         Milk Cows and Production:  By Quarter, United States,  1995-96
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
        :    Milk Cows  1/   :  Milk per Cow  2/ :     Milk Production 2/
        :----------------------------------------------------------------------
Quarter :          :         :         :         :         :         : 1996 as
        :  1995    :  1996   :  1995   :  1996   :  1995   :  1996   :   % of
        :          :         :         :         :         :         :   1995
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
        :    ---- 1,000 ----         Pounds          Million Pounds    Percent
        :
Jan-Mar :    9,470     9,402     4,112     4,160    38,941    39,111       100
Apr-Jun :    9,477     9,375     4,276     4,236    40,520    39,706        98
Jul-Sep :    9,465     9,343     4,049     4,043    38,325    37,778        99
Oct-Dec :    9,432               4,014              37,857
        :
Annual  :    9,461              16,451             155,644
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/  Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh.
2/  Excludes milk sucked by calves.



        Milk Cows and Production:  By Month, 22 Selected States, 1995-96
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
        :    Milk Cows  1/   :  Milk per Cow  2/ :     Milk Production 2/
        :----------------------------------------------------------------------
 Month  :          :         :         :         :         :         : 1996 as
        :   1995   :  1996   :  1995   :  1996   :  1995   :  1996   :   % of
        :          :         :         :         :         :         :   1995
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
        :    ---- 1,000 ----          Pounds         Million Pounds    Percent
        :
Jan     :    8,046     8,026     1,404     1,406    11,296    11,285       100
Feb     :    8,050     8,010     1,295     1,338    10,423    10,719       103
Mar     :    8,061     7,998     1,453     1,459    11,709    11,671       100
Apr     :    8,058     7,988     1,427     1,434    11,501    11,451       100
May     :    8,056     7,987     1,484     1,470    11,959    11,740        98
Jun     :    8,066     7,984     1,421     1,387    11,465    11,075        97
Jul     :    8,062     7,977     1,414     1,397    11,397    11,142        98
Aug     :    8,062     7,969     1,375     1,377    11,086    10,970        99
Sep     :    8,061     7,957     1,331     1,337    10,729    10,640        99
Oct     :    8,050     7,953     1,364     1,380    10,978    10,977       100
Nov     :    8,043     7,939     1,320     1,339    10,616    10,634       100
Dec     :    8,034               1,380              11,088
        :
Annual  :    8,054              16,668             134,247
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/  Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh.
2/  Excludes milk sucked by calves.

            Milk Cows and Production:  By State,  November 1995-96
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
        :    Milk Cows  1/   :  Milk per Cow  2/ :     Milk Production 2/
        :----------------------------------------------------------------------
 State  :          :         :         :         :         :         : 1996 as
        :   1995   :  1996   :  1995   :  1996   :  1995   :  1996   :   % of
        :          :         :         :         :         :         :   1995
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
        :    ---- 1,000 ----          Pounds         Million Pounds    Percent
        :
CA      :    1,258     1,266     1,615     1,670     2,032     2,114       104
FL      :      155       156     1,160     1,200       180       187       104
ID      :      242       267     1,470     1,510       356       403       113
IL      :      162       153     1,250     1,290       203       197        97
IN      :      143       140     1,240     1,240       177       174        98
IA      :      250       250     1,310     1,260       328       315        96
KY      :      159       151       960       960       153       145        95
MD      :       91        85     1,175     1,230       107       105        98
MI      :      326       325     1,340     1,360       437       442       101
MN      :      600       595     1,220     1,235       732       735       100
MO      :      186       175     1,100     1,095       205       192        94
NM      :      196       195     1,460     1,530       286       298       104
NY      :      702       700     1,335     1,280       937       896        96
NC      :       86        79     1,290     1,290       111       102        92
OH      :      287       285     1,270     1,230       364       351        96
PA      :      647       642     1,310     1,310       848       841        99
TN      :      123       110     1,090     1,130       134       124        93
TX      :      400       395     1,200     1,205       480       476        99
VT      :      158       155     1,280     1,280       202       198        98
VA      :      128       126     1,205     1,175       154       148        96
WA      :      264       266     1,570     1,600       414       426       103
WI      :    1,480     1,423     1,200     1,240     1,776     1,765        99
        :
22 State:
 Total  :    8,043     7,939     1,320     1,339    10,616    10,634       100
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/  Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh.
2/  Excludes milk sucked by calves.

          Milk Cows and Production:  By State, October 1995-96 1/
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
        :    Milk Cows  2/   :  Milk per Cow  3/ :     Milk Production 3/
        :----------------------------------------------------------------------
 State  :          :         :         :         :         :         : 1996 as
        :   1995   :  1996   :  1995   :  1996   :  1995   :  1996   :   % of
        :          :         :         :         :         :         :   1995
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
        :    ---- 1,000 ----          Pounds         Million Pounds    Percent
        :
CA      :    1,257     1,265     1,690     1,755     2,124     2,220       105
FL      :      157       156     1,050     1,155       165       180       109
ID      :      240       265     1,530     1,570       367       416       113
IL      :      162       157     1,250     1,310       203       206       101
IN      :      143       140     1,280     1,280       183       179        98
IA      :      250       250     1,330     1,280       333       320        96
KY      :      161       151     1,000     1,000       161       151        94
MD      :       91        85     1,185     1,250       108       106        98
MI      :      326       326     1,400     1,405       456       458       100
MN      :      600       595     1,260     1,270       756       756       100
MO      :      187       175     1,105     1,075       207       188        91
NM      :      196       195     1,510     1,570       296       306       103
NY      :      702       702     1,365     1,330       958       934        97
NC      :       86        79     1,280     1,320       110       104        95
OH      :      287       285     1,300     1,260       373       359        96
PA      :      647       645     1,375     1,345       890       868        98
TN      :      123       111     1,120     1,120       138       124        90
TX      :      401       395     1,200     1,185       481       468        97
VT      :      158       154     1,340     1,350       212       208        98
VA      :      128       126     1,240     1,190       159       150        94
WA      :      266       266     1,645     1,675       438       446       102
WI      :    1,482     1,430     1,255     1,280     1,860     1,830        98
        :
22 State:
 Total  :    8,050     7,953     1,364     1,380    10,978    10,977       100
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/  1996 revised.  2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh.
3/  Excludes milk sucked by calves.


                       Reliability Statement

Survey Procedures:  Primary data used to determine these estimates were
                    obtained from a sample of producers.  Individual States
maintain a list of all known milk producers and information on the size of
their herd.  States use all known sources of producers to ensure that their
lists are as complete as possible. Generally, all large producers and a sample
of small producers are included in the survey.  Questionnaires are mailed to
producers near the end of the month to obtain data for the first day of the
month.  Additional reports are obtained by telephone, as needed, to supplement
the mail response.


Estimation Procedures:  State offices prepare these estimates using survey
                        indications, historic trends, and any available
administrative data. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the
Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness.


Revision Policy:  Milk production, rate per cow, and number of cows are
                  subject to revision the following month for monthly States
or the following quarter for the quarterly States.  Normally, Federal Market
Order sales are the main basis for revisions. However, data for all orders are
not available in time for this revision.  Estimates are again subject to
revisions in February each year based on additional administrative data.  In
the event that additional changes are necessary, a third revision is possible
in February the following year.  Estimates are again reviewed after data from
the five-year Census of Agriculture, conducted by the Department of Commerce,
are available. No revisions are made after that date.


Reliability:  Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in the
              sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability.
Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions,
duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data.
The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly.  They are minimized
through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a
careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness.

To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report,
the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the table below.
The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past
performance and is computed using the differences between first and final
estimates.  The "Root Mean Square Error" for milk cow inventory estimates over
the past
10 quarters is 1.3 percent.  This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the
final July-September estimate will not be above or below the current estimate
of 9.35 million head by more than 1.3 percent, or about 121,000 head.  Chances
are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 2.4 percent, or about
224,000 head (the 90 percent confidence level).


                Reliability of July-September Milk Estimates 1/
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             :        :              :    Difference Between    :
             :        :              :      First and Final     :    Number of
             :  Root  :     90%      :         Estimates  1/    :    Quarters
    Item     :  Mean  :  Confidence  :------------------------------------------
             : Square :    Level     :        :         :       : First : First
             :  Error :              : Average: Smallest:Largest: Above : Below
             :        :              :        :         :       : Final : Final
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             :   - Percent -     ---------- Mil Lbs. ----------     - Number -
             :
Milk         :   0.9     1.6     605     286      157      538     10       0
  Production :
             :                  --------- 1,000 Head ----------

             :
All Milk     :   1.3     2.4     224     117       15      179     10       0
  Cows       :
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/  Based on records for the past 10 July-September quarters.


The next "Milk Production" report will be released at 3 P.M. ET on
January 15, 1997.

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination in
its programs on the basis of race, color, national origin, sex, religion, age,
disability, political beliefs, and marital or familial status.  Persons with
disabilities who require alternative means for communication of program
information (braille, large print, audiotape, etc.) should contact the USDA
Office of Communications at (202) 720-5881 (voice) or (202) 720-7808 (TDD).

To file a complaint, write the Secretary of Agriculture, USDA, Washington,
D.C., 20250, or call (202) 720-7327 (voice) or (202) 720-1127 (TDD).  USDA is
an equal employment opportunity employer.


                         SUBSCRIBE TODAY!!

For your convenience, there are several ways to obtain NASS reports, data
products, and services:


                          INTERNET ACCESS

All NASS reports are now available free of charge on the worldwide Internet.
For access, connect to the Internet and select:

   1.  Worldwide Web:  http://www.usda.gov/nass/       OR

   2.  For Gopher/Telenet/FTP access:
       HOST=usda.mannlib.cornell.edu        OR

   3.  For a subscription direct to your e-mail address,
       send an e-mail message to:  usda-reports@usda.mannlib.cornell.edu
       and in the body of the message type the word:  list


                          AUTOFAX ACCESS

NASSFax service is available for some reports from your fax machine.  Please
call 202-720-2000, using the handset attached to your fax.  Respond to the
voice prompts.

                 PRINTED REPORTS OR DATA PRODUCTS
 CALL OUR TOLL-FREE ORDER DESK:   1-800-999-6779 (U.S. and Canada)
      Other areas, please call l-703-834-0125          FAX:  1-703-834-0110
(Visa, MasterCard, check, or money order acceptable for payment.)


                            ASSISTANCE

For assistance with general agricultural statistics or further information
about NASS or its products or services, contact the Agricultural Statistics
Hotline at 1-800-727-9540, 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET, or e-mail:
NASS@NASS.USDA.GOV.


          USDA Announces Agricultural Outlook Forum  97
                    February 24 and 25, 1997
              Omni Shoreham Hotel, Washington, D.C.

An era of freer markets under the 1996 Farm Bill has begun. For an expert
assessment of the impact, attend the Outlook Forum.  Top speakers will discuss
the 1997 farm outlook, prospects to 2005, risk management, concentration issues,
market stability, world food security, marketing high-valued exports and more.
Plan now to attend.  For program and registration details, check Forum home
page, call (202) 720-3050 or dial (202) 219-0296 from your fax machine and
request document 66666.  Send e-mail to agforum@oce.usda.gov.

Get news from the Forum.  Can't attend? After the Forum, download speeches from
the Internet. Or, call 1-800-999-6779 to place an advance order for the printed
proceedings (YCON-97) or new long term projections to 2005 (WAOB-97-1).

  Ag Forum home page:  http://www.usda.gov/oce/waob/agforum.htm






                          Agricultural
                             Outlook
                            Forum  97