participate and for the memoranda of understanding with colleges and universities that offer college
programs on the military installations. In overseas commands, contractual agreements for postsecondary
programs are managed at the major Army command level. Servicemembers know that on most Army
installations there is an Army Education Center to serve them. Similar education center operations exist
on Air Force, Marine, and Navy installations, including many larger Navy vessels.

The ESO or education specialist who is in charge of the installation education center is usually under
the direct supervision of the established military command structure and works for a senior military staff
officer within the local command system. Education is an integral function of military command at all
levels. Each military service headquarters has a director of education and staff to serve as the principal
advocate of voluntary education programs.

The availability of postsecondary programs and funding through tuition assistance is a function of the
military command structure. DANTES assists local military education centers by providing a variety of
nontraditional educational programs and services. The supporting colleges and universities provide an
array of more traditional instructional programs and courses. Blending of these efforts at the iocal level
is essential for providing the servicemember a coherent, cost-effective, high-quality, and relevant
program of study. This process is complicated by the mobile nature of military personnel. Coordination
and articulation among installation postsecondary programs are essential to avoid duplication or loss of
credits and to provide servicemembers with degree plans that have built-in guarantees for transferability.
In this way a servicemember can begin at a base in the United States, transfer to Europe or Asia and then

back to a base in the United States, and continue efforts toward completion of an associate or bachelor’s
degree.

Two In-Service Approaches to Degree Programs

During the mid-1970s, the Air Force developed the Community College of the Air Force (CCAF) to
provide in-service degrees based in large part upon credits earned from service school courses and on-
the-job experience, supplemented by general education courses taken with civilian colleges and univer-
sities. The Army and the Navy chose a different route. They contracted through DANTES with the
American Association of State Colleges and Universities (AASCU) for the Servicemembers Opportunity
Colleges (SOC) to articulate the desired associate and bachelor’s degree programs among accredited
civilian institutions that serve on or near military installations. Consequently, instead of degrees issued
by the military services, soldiers and sailors ear degrees from accredited civilian colleges and universities.

Air Force officers fly the aircraft that “fight the war” for that military service. Its enlisted personnel
are the technicians who maintain the planes and perform other technical functions, many of which have a
high correlation with jobs in the civilian sector. The Air Force sought and obtained through Congress
legislation that permitted it to establish an in-service “community college” with degree-granting author-
ity for vocational associate degrees closely aligned with military jobs. Often these degrees are useful to
veterans seeking employment in similar occupations in civilian life.

On the other hand, the high-density military occupational specialties in the Army are infantrymen,
armor crewmen, field artillery crewmen, air defense artillery crewmembers. and combat engineers,
These military specialties have little correlation with jobs in the civilian sector. In the 1970s the Army
felt that a vocational degree in these specialties, even if possible, would be of little value to an Army
veteran secking employment outside the military.

The Army leadership—understanding that its non-commissioned officers perform managerial and
supervisory functions involving personnel, supplies, equipment, and often budget at unit levels—felt
that the enlisted force, particularly in the combat arms and combat support branches, would be served by
associate degree programs emphasizing management and management-related disciplines. Moreover,
having these degrees offered and awarded by regionally accredited civilian colleges and universities

60 fal
65



APPENDIX B

Manager Competency Definitions

1. Goal and Action Management Cluster

a.

Efficiency Orientation
¢ Finds better, faster, less expensive, or more efficient ways to do things.
* Uses own time and resources efficiently (e.g., time management methods).

. Proactivity

* Does things before being asked to or forced by events.
* Does far more than is minimally required in the assignment or task.
* Does things that go beyond the job description or beyond formal authority.

. Pattern Recognition

* Sees connections or patterns that are not obvious to others.

¢ Sees similarities between a new situation and past situations of a different type.
* Rapidly identifies key issues in a complex situation.

+ Finds ways to condense a large amount of information into a useful form.

¢ Develops and uses vigorous, clear analogies in speech or writing.

|. Concern for Impact (CI)

* Understands how he or she is perceived by others.

* Works to make a particular impression on others, to help achieve a work-related objective.
* Makes the organization aware of his or her accomplishments and capabilities.

* Modifies own behavior to fit the expectations of others.

¢ Takes actions calculated to have a particular effect on others.

2. Leadership Cluster

a.

b.

Conceptualization

¢ Uses “rules of thumb” concepts or principles to describe problems and situations.

* Identifies inconsistencies or discrepancies that are not obvious to others (actual/ideal or error
discrepancies).

* Notices similarities between new situations and past situations of the same type.

* Applies information and knowledge previously learned from training or others.

Oral Presentations

* Uses information or data effectively to persuade others or to support a position.

+ Explains complex ideas by using well-chosen examples from personal experience.
 Prepzres for presentations with documentation, facts, and figures.

+ Anticipates and prepares for how people will react

* Laiors own language to the level of the audience,

« Makes a special effort to relate to people at their level of understanding.

* Uses symbolic, verbal, and nonverbal behavior to ensure clear presentations.

127



Table 4.—Number and percentage of active duty enlisted personnel by race-ethnicity within
service (as of June 30, 1990)

Service

Marine Air Total
Race- Army Navy Corps Force DoD
Ethnicity N %o N % N % N % N %
White 372,057 59.2 355,144 71.1 121,325 69.0 326,027 75.2 1,174,553 67.6
Black 200,310 31.9 86,814 17.4 36,404 20.7 76,385 17.6 395,913 23.0
Hispanic 27,215 4.3 29,418 5.9 12,611 7.2 16,575 38 85,819 49
Other/unk.* 29,128 4.6 28,056 5.6 5,507 3.1 14,817 3.3 77,208 44
Total 628,710 100 490,432 100 175,847 100 433,504 100 1,737,493 100

Source: Defense Manpower Data Center, Arlington, VA.

*Other includes such categories as American Indians, Alaskan natives, Asians and Pacific Islanders.

Despite the controversy” it engenders, minority overrepresentation in the military has been a fact of
life in the volunteer force. No doubt, the lack of civilian alternatives and opportunities have heen in part
responsible for the minority attraction to the military. This nation’s largest educator, trainer, and em-
ployer has opened doors that had been so rudely slammed shut before. President Truman’s Executive
Order 9981, issued in 1948, put the military ahead of the civilian world in terms of equal opportunity
and race relations. By 1954, the last of the Army’s all-black units was gone.'? Once in the military,
minority members still had to face assignment, evaluation, promotion, and disciplinary hurdles, but all
in all, with the passage of time, the picture in the platoon has become progressively positive. Or as noted
military sociologist Charles Moskos said in the popular press:

The armed services still have race problems, but these are minimal compared to the problems
that exist in other institutions, public and private.'*

There are certainly burdens involved in being a soldier, sailor, marine, or airman, including hazardous
duty, the possibility of rapid deployment, and a somewhat nomadic life. But for black youth in particu-
lar, who face more than their fair share of high unemployment, underemployment, and impoverished,
high-risk environments, the burdens may appear relatively small. As Lawrence J. Korb, former Assistant
Secretary of Defense (Manpower, Reserve Affairs, and Logistics) put it:

... until civilian society gives blacks the types of opportunities available in the military,
blacks will continue to enlist and reenlist in large numbers.!>

What are the opportunities afforded by the military? Aside from instilling a sense of pride, determina-
tion, and accomplishment, some of the tangible benefits include equal pay for equal rank, steady inco ¢
in the form of annual basic pay plus incentives and special pay, nontaxable food and housing allowances
(or base housing), health benefits, 30 days’ vacation, commissary and exchange privileges, legal assis-

tance, recreation activities, and retirement and veterans benefits. '¢

Aside from these impressive remuneration packages, the nation’s largest education and training
institution offers just that—large-scale education and training ofportunitics. The military plays a major
role not just in employing youths but in furthering their education as well. When a young person enters
service, he or she participates in basic training. In 6 to 8 weeks, the raw recruit is indoctrinated into the
military lifestyle through physical conditioning and acquisition of general military skills. Next is skill
training for 2 to 4 months on average (longer for more technical specialties) in support of the multitude

25



tun from short courses covered in a single session to regular college courses that provide full credit
towards a degree.

* Management Courses. Management courses at Xerox are intended to enhance the professional
development of employees in their roles as managers. These courses are generally brief, typically
requiring one or two days, and cover subjects such as handling change, effective presentations,
project management, and financial management. However, corporate management courses are about
a week long. Xerox also offers extensive courses for manufacturing, service, and marketing
employees, but these areas were beyond the scope of this case study.

Organization of Xerox’s Training Programs

The departments responsible for the delivery of training at Xerox are decentralized. There are a
number of training organizations, e.g., Development and Manufacturing (D&M) Technical Education
and Management Training, which focuses on professional education and training; Quality Training,
which focuses on the Leadership Through Quaiity process and other quality initiatives; Manufacturing
Training, which focuses on training for production workers; and Service and Customer-Related Train-
ing, which deals with sales and service employees. We have focused our discussion on the training
delivered through the Development and Manufacturing Technical Education and Management Training
and the Leadership Through Quality Training. Many training programs (about 85 percent) are delivered
in-house by Xerox employees, out colleges and universities are often involved. Courses and degree
programs with Comell University, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute (RPI), Rochester Institute of Tech-
nology (RIT), and National Technological University (NTU)—a private, nonprofit consortium of 29
institutions accredited by the North Central Association of Colleges and Schools—are offered. These
courses take the form of classroom teaching (both on- and off-site), satellite broadcasts, and video and
audio tapes, as well as self-instructional courses that can be used on-site or at home.

The customers of these training programs are the employees who take the courses. While supervisors
are payers for the instruction, they are also customers. As described in the rest of this section, the
incentives and content of training received vary by the position and level of the employee.

The organization of the training system at Xerox is fairly complex, but the complexity helps assure
that the right amount of training is provided, that the training provided is appropriate in content, and that
the staff managing the training is of the appropriate size. As is shown below, many parts of the firm
have important roles in Xerox’s training system.

Development and Manufacturing (D&M) Technical Education and Management Training

This organization is responsible for establishing, delivering, and assessing the D&M training and
education courses. The staff consists of employees who specialize in training and education, which
includes contract staff as well as regular Xerox employces. The training organization offers courses
through its Day/Evening Program (described in the next section) and through a number of special
programs. Course listings are published in a quarterly ca‘alog which lists the content of each course, the
schedule, the instructor, and the tuition charge. Employees interested in learning more about a particular
course can contact the appropriate staff member identified in the catalog. When new courses are offered,
the organization works with the instructor in developing the course, and courses are periodically evaluated.

Most courses offered by the department had no tuition until about 2 years ago. Now tuition ranges
from $100 for a one-day course to $1,600 for a 40-week course. Each major budget center in the firm
receives a budget that can be used to purchase training from the training department or from other
sources (e.g., outside seminars). There are two reasons why the tuition system was implemented. First, it
makes supervisors and employees aware that the courses are not free; courses should only be taken if the
employee will receive work-related benefits from the course, Second, the training department relies on
tuition to pay for its staff. Thus, the training department must meet a market test for its services.

158

[vy
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fom



Existing Firm-Sponsored Training

The workplace is often cited as an appropriate place for skill acquisition. Even u.sugh the imple-
mentation of federal government training initiatives is receiving increasing support, “worker training
will remain largely a private sector responsibility.”® Many firms provide either formal or informal
training for their workforce; however, the quality, frequency, expense allocated, and workers targeted
vary substantially. Additionally, most states have begun to subsidize firm training and retraining efforts
as part of state economic development policies.

Training in Firms

Estimates of training expenditures are not accurate because of the poor data available. However,
annual formal training expenditures have been estimated to fall between $30 and $45 billion, with
informal expenditures estimated much higher ($90 to $180 billion).’° Expenditures on formal training
are approximately 1.3 percent to 1.8 percent of payroll expenses. In general, “larger firms are more
likely to provide structured training because they have lower labor turnover and greater access to capital
to finance training.”'! Estimates suggest that 35 percent of all employees (34 million workers) received
training to improve their skills since they obtained their present job. Of the 34 million workers that
received upgrade training, 10.6 million benefitted from a formal company program, and 13.6 million
received informal on-the-job training.!? (School and “other”—which includes professional seminars and
conventions—were the other two possible sources of training.)

As mentioned earlier, the amount and quality of training varies significantly by firm. While little
research has been done in the field, some studies suggest that employers should spend at least 2 percent
of their payroll on training in the short term with an ultimate goal of 4 percent.'? A few firms, Interna-
tional Business Machines and Xerox for example, already spend 4 percent or more of their payroll on
training. Examples of programs are presented under Exemplary Approaches in Training.

State-Sponsored Training

While there is currently little federal support for firms that provide training for their workers, approxi-
mately 46 states provide financial support for firm-based training. A recent ASTD publication, New
Foundations: State Economic Growth Through Training, offers descriptions of state programs.'* Some
state programs target recipients based on (1) firm behavior (¢.g., the introduction of new technology or
new processes), (2) type of training (e.g., upgrading and retraining), or (3) employee characteristics
(e.g., displaced or potentially displaced workers). About 16 state programs have explicit qualifying
requirements for state financial support that involve some combination of firm-based technological

change, employee position, and type of training. Table | lists the relevant state programs and their
requirements.

Why Firms May Provide Too Little Training

There are a number of reasons why the amount of training provided may be less than is economically
optimal.'> “Market failures” that may influence firms’ decisions to train their employces include worker
mobility, competitive disadvantage, and unknown costs and benefits. Additionally, when firms do
decide to provide training, they often lack in-house expertise and adequate funding, forcing theii to
purchase training from outside vendors that is of varying cost and quality. Firms may also provide sub-

optimal training that could be improved by incorporating best-practice techniques and new instructional
technologies.

153

?

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¢



U.S. DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATION
Othce of Educational Research and improvement
EDYCATIONAL RESOURCES INFORMATION
CENTER (ERIC)
This document has deen reproduced as
fecewed tom ine person of organization
originating
© Minor changes nave been made to improve
Feptoduction ai

© Points of view of opinions statedin thus docu.
‘ment do not necessarily represent official
‘GERI position oF policy



Figure 5.—The learning cycle

Concrete

ae

(jumping in
Active metlactive
Experimentation LEARNING Observation
(trial and error) (watching)

KO __ /
Conceptualization
(thinking)

Conclusion

Competency-based training and development programs such as those discussed have been used
primarily by individual organizations, and this trend is growing. For example, a large industry-based
research consortium is currently in the process of developing competency-based training and develop-
ment systems for developing industry-wide career paths. These movements should serve as models for
other organizations, industries, government agencies, and the nation’s educational institutions.

Management jobs vary with regard to the specific job demands and the organizational and environ-
mental conditions in which they exist. Management jobs aiso share certain responsibilities, including the
familiar duties of planning, organizing, controlling, motivating, and coordinating. By equipping manag-
ers (and future managers) with the competencies necessary to successfully apply the technical knowl-
edge, skills, and abilities required to perform their jobs, we will be supplying our nation with adaptable
employees. This single characteristic may very well be the most important one for a whole generation of
employees and organizations, in our private and public sectors alike.

123 1

mw
i.



In the mid-1980s the Army developed the Transition Management Program, pilot tested first at Fort
Bragg. Funding for expansion to other Army installations was cut in March 1989. The education mod-
ules of transition management began as an initiative to encourage soldiers with Montgomery GI Bill
benefits to apply to college prior to leaving active duty. It provided guidance and contractual monies to
be used at installation Army education centers to support the transition management process. As funding
for the Army Continuing Education System was reduced during the late 1980s, most installations could
no longer afford contractual arrangements. Existing education center staff personnel were required to
shoulder the load without contractual assistance. Education counselors provide the mandatory GI Bill
briefing and conduct other education counseling as time permits. At least one installation has instituted a
“College Resource Center” to supplement its education counseling efforts. This model provides a ready
resource facility for soldiers and adult family members to explore on a self-help basis and find informa-
tion about colleges and civilian jobs. Other base education center staffs have developed similar initia-
tives to provide the essential educational resources with minimum expense.

In 1990, OSD and the military services have task forces, committees, and offices dealing with transi-
tion assistance and the multitude of inherent issues and human needs. A special office has been estab-
lished in the Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense (OASD) to oversee military efforts. The
military services are also in the process of establishing programs and offices. For example, the Army’s
program is called the Army Career and Alumni Program (ACAP). An office, headed by a GS-15, has
been established as part of the Total Army Personnel Command. ACAP Memorandum of Instruction
(MOI) sets forth numerous initiatives as part of ACAP (Budge, 1990). It attempts to (a) establish Army
policy, (b) draw together existing Army transition assistance services such as education services pro-
vided through the Army Continuing Education System, (c) initiate some new services, and (d) plan
future initiatives. Some staff personnel will be made available at installation level to serve as a focus for
transition assistance available for “all the Army family.” The MOI clearly states that services through
ACAP are available not only to active duty soldiers, but also to reservists, Department of Army civil-
ians, and family members. It states:

Army headquarters is working with Congress, Department of Labor, Office of Personnel
Management, state governments, and the private sector to bring together a comprehensive
program for all transitioning personnel....Our ability to recruit and retain a force in the next
10 to 15 years will hinge on how well we take care of people during this period of great
change. (Budge 1990, 2)

With regard to education resources, the “Existing Services Matrix” of the ACAP MOI shows that
career counseling services through the Army Continuing Education System (ACES) provide clarification
of career goals, interest inventories, academic and vocational guidance, non-traditional credit informa-
tion, veterans educational benefits information, and college selection and application information.

It also indicates that ACLS will provide college selection and application assistance, pre-discharge
submission of veterans educational entitlement paperwork, and requests for AARTS records.

Army Regulation 621-5 (1989) sets forth current Army procedures for use within the Army Con-
tinuing Education System (sce Table 14).

69

Lore
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corporate philosophies. Companies such as IBM and Xerox have maintained (or regained) significant
market shares through large investments in human capital (over 3 percent of their payroll is spent on
training). Xerox was able to halve both production costs and product development time by studying
Japanese production methods. Xerox extensively trained and reorganized its workforce by (1) integrating
copier development and production, (2) emphasizing “competitive benchmarking,” (3) increasing
employee involvement, (4) using statistical process control in the factory and with suppliers, (5) involv-
ing suppliers early in the product design phase, (6) emphasizing customer satisfaction, (7) reducing the
number of suppliers and the level of inventories, and (8) introducing company-wide quality control and
training of the total workforce (100,000).'*

IBM’s full-employment policy is much like Japanese firms’ “lifetime employment” policy; the
resulting decreased worker mobility makes training and education investments much less risky. Addi-
tionally, it becomes much more difficult to shut down unprofitable plants or ventures and more rational
to try to turn them around. Anecdotal evidence of IBM’s training is presented in America’s Choice:
High Skills or Low Wages!" For example, an unprofitable IBM factory in Texas was reorganized—
workers were tested for competency levels; basic and upgrade skills training was provided; workers
formed teams that were responsible for inspection, repairs, maintenance, ordering, supervision, trouble-
shooting and problem-solving, and planning production. As a result, the ratio of indirect to direct /
employees was reduced from about 3 to 1 to less than 1 to 1, productivity was increased by more than
200 percent, and quality was raised fivefold.

Xerox Case Study

History of Xerox

In 1959, Xerox introduced the first plain paper copier—the 914—and created the copier industry.”
Though it was large, slow (by current standards), and expensive, the 914 copier achieved astounding
success, and it revolutionized the reproduction process. Facing no competition, Xerox emphasized the
production of faster and larger copiers, largely ignored quality improvements and cost reductions, and
lost its focus on customer satisfaction. During this period of success, a subsidiary in Europe, Rank
Xerox, and an affiliate company in Japan, Fuji Xerox, were established. While Xerox successfully made
larger and faster copiers, other companies began to acquire the xerographic technology.

In 1970, IBM entered the U.S. copier market, and by the mid-1970s a multitude of Japanese camera
companies (e.g., Canon, Minolta, Ricoh) had entered as well. In addition, Federal Trade Commission
settlements mandated that Xerox open international access to key patents. Japanese companies began by
targeting the low-end of the copizr market, producing small, low-cost, high-quality copiers. Xerox was
unable to compete with these copiers, and the Japanese companies used their gains in market share at the
low end of the market to penetrate the mid-range market. In 1975, Kodak introduced a copier in the
upper end of the market that had an automatic recirculating document handler, which Xerox had yet to
introduce. Xerox had been heavily investing the profits of their upper-end copiers into innovative
computer technology in their Palo Alto Research Center, but had been unadle to implement the new
technology into commercial products. Xerox’s market share in the lower end of the market was drop-
ping, and its era of market dominance had come to a close. It is from this vantage point that Xerox

recognized its need to recvaluate its position in both the U.S. and world markets and to take drastic steps
to reduce the decline.

In 1979, Xerox began to study Fuji Xerox, the Japanese company in which it had half ownership, and
other Japanese companies. They found that Japanese companies had (1) half the manufacturing costs, (2)
half as long development schedules, (3) half the people on their production teams, (4) fewer defective
parts, and (5) superior quality. This was Xcrox’s first attempt at “competitive benchmarking,” which
they define as “the continuous process of measuring our products, services, and practices against our
toughest competitors or those companies renowned as the leaders.””! From these discoveries, steps were

156

156

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Kime, S.F. (1990). Draft SOC transition program. Washington, DC: Servicemembers Opportunity Colleges.

McKernan, K.F. (Jul. 12, 1990). The Montgomery GI Bill: Statement of the Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary of
Defense for Force Managemen: & Personnel. Hearing before the Education, Training, & Employment Subcommittee,
House Committee on Veterans’ Affairs. Washington, DC.

Montgomery, G.V. (1990) The Montgomery GI Bill: “We told you so.” Washington, DC: U.S. House of Representa-
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Naval Training Systems Center (1988), Demographic analysis of the Navy tuition assistance program. Special Report
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Navy Times (Aug.6, 1990). Deeper Marine cuts recommended by key subcommittee, p. 3.

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_—_ (Nov.23, 1990) Memorandum For Correspondents, NO. 477-M. Washington, DC: Author.

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Powell, O. L. (27 Jun. 1989). Army continuing education system. Memorandum for U.S. Army Forces Command
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80



The mean mechanical scores of the newly unqualified in all regions are higher than the mean score of
civilian youth nationwide. Except in the South, they are also roughly on a par with all civilian males,
who have a mean percentile score of 51.

Newly unqualified youths in the South and West also have mean administrative scores (43,44) that
are fairly close to the national average (47), suggesting that they could be reasonably competitive for
secretarial and clerical jobs nationwide. In inmost other composites and regions, however, the newly
unqualified appear to be at a marked disadvantage in terms of occupation-related aptitudes.

Socioeconomic Backgrounds of the Newly Unqualified

We can learn something about the social class background of the newly unqualified by examining
data from DoD’s continuing Survey of Recruit Socioeconomic Backgrounds. Administered to samples
of new recruits as they enter basic training, the survey asks for current socioeconomic information about
their parents (step-parents, guardians) in the households where they lived last before entering the mili-
tary. The data reported here were collected from 10,376 recruits during the last two quarters of FY 1989.
To simulate the newly unqualified, the appropriate percentage of survey respondents with the lowest
AFOT scores in each service were once again selected for analysis.*

Information on the parents of newly unqualified youth is compared with data on the parents of all
recruits sampled in FY 1989 and with data from the Current Population Survey (CPS). Comparison
groups were constructed from the CPS data files, comprising male and female parents of children
between the ages of 14 and 21, inclusive, who are living at home.

Tabies comparing the parents of the newly unqualified, of FY 1989 recruits, and of youth aged 14 to
21 in the general population are found in Appendix A. The following discussion summarizes the data in
those tables.

Marital Status

Most of the parents of newly unqualified youth are married (see Table A-1). This is true of 87 percent
of their fathers and 68 percent of their mothers. However, both the fathers and mothers of unqualified
youth are less likely than their counterparts in the Current Population Survey to be m— ried. Among
these parents in the general population, 94 percent of the fathers and 79 percent of the mothers are
married. In effect, the fathers of unqualified youth are .93 times as likely to be married as the compari-
son fathers (87 percent divided by 94 percent) and the mothers of the unqualified are .86 times as likely
to be married as their counterparts in the general population (68 percent divided by 79 percent).

Home Ownership

A substantial majority of the parents of the newly unqualified also own the homes they live in (see
Table A-2). Altogether, 73 percent of the fathers and 64 percent of the mothers are either sole or joint
owners of their homes. These proportions are 6 to 8 percentage points lower than the proportions of all
recruit parents who are homeowners, and 11 points lower than the proportion of CPS parents who own
their homes. The fathers of the newly unqualified are .87 times as likely as their civilian counterparts to
own their own homes and the mothers of the unqualified youth are .85 times as likely to do so.

Education

The education deficit of fathers of newly unqualified youth is considerable (Table A-3). Almost one-
third of the fathers of the newly unqualified did not finish high school, as compared to less than one-fifth
of CPS fathers. Roughiy equal proportions of each group have high school graduation or some college

6 19



equation indicate that benefit users are roughly 1.6 years more educ:ted than nonusers, and estimates of
the differenced equation indicate that benefit users increased their level of schooling by roughly 1.4
years more than nonusers.

Column (3) reports estimates of the human capital earnings function, which shows a return to educa-
tion of 6.5 percent per year. Column (4) reports estimates of equation (5), which decomposes the return
to education into a return to the grade completed when entering the military and a return to the postentry
grade increment. Grade at entry is worth 9.6 percent per year, ana the grade increment is worth 4.3
percent. The lesser return to the grade increment may be a consequence of the fact that many who
attended school after discharge have not been out of schooi for long on the survey date. Card and
Krueger's (1990) finding that the return to education for middle-aged men is virtually constant across
levels of schooling suggests that the difference between the return to grade at entry and grade increment
may eventually disappear.

The effect of veterans benefits on earnings is given by the product of the grade increment attributable
to benefits and the monetary return to the grade increment. This amount is 4.3 * 1.35, or approximately
5.8 percent. Column (5) shows direct estimates of the effect of veterans benefits on earnings, estimated
from the reduced form equation, (6). The reduced form estimate, also 5.8 percent, is calculated by
replacing the grade increment regressor in equation (5) with a program-use dummy. Column (6) reports
the results of adding the program-use dummy to equation (5). The coefficient of -0.002 on the program-
use dummy in column (6) shows that, conditional on personal characteristics, entry level schooling, and
grade increment, use of veterans benefits is not correlated with earnings. This is important evidence in
favor of the model outlined in the previous section.

Table 4a presents estimates of equations (4) and (5) where the effect of veterans benefits on grade
increment and the effect of grade increment on earnings are allowed to vary with race, period of service,
and type of VA program used. Columns (1) and (2) report grade increment and earnings equations by
race.'¢ The effect of veterans benefits on grade increment differs little by race, although the grad>
increment is worth somewhat more to “all races other than white.” The sample of races other than white
is too small, however, to allow for a statistically significant distinction by race.

Column (3) of Table 4a indicates that the effect of benefit usage on grade increment is virtually
identical for men with Vietnam era and early AVF service. Column (4) shows that the effect of grade
increment on earnings a!so differs little by period of service. Column (5) shows the result of separating
individual programs in the grade increment equation. Here, the results suggest that the VEAP and other
VA programs, less generous than the GI Bill, also lead to a schooling increment lower than that enjoyed

by GI Bill users. The distinction between the effects of the GI Bill and other programs is statistically
significant.

Table 4b allow: the effect of benefit usage to differ by type of training. Column (1) indicates that
using veterans benefits to attend college or graduate school is associated with a grade increment of 1.73
years, but using benefits for other types of training :eads to no increase in education. The figures in
column (3) suggest that men who did not use any VA benefits receive a return to postservice grade
increment roughly the same as the return for men who used VA benefits to attend college or graduate
school (3.4 versus 4.4 percent). The return to grade increment is negative and imprecisely estimated for
benefit users who did not attend college or graduate school. Column (4) reports the reduced form effect
of benefit usage. The results here show: a 9 percent premium for college and graduate student users, and
no premium for users of other VA educational benefits. Column (5) shows that conditional on grade
increment there is no effect of benefit usage for benefit users of either type. This suggests that benefit

users who did not attend college or graduate school are not rewarded in some way other than through the
grade increnient.

~ 203
204



returning unskilled military workers.) Alternatively, the defense funds could be used to reduce the
deficit. Although this would offer long-term benefits to the economy, this option is unlikely to result in
a growth of near-term employment opportunities for laid-off defense workers or returning soldiers.

What Industries Produce for Defense?

Most domestic industries produce for both military and commercial customers, and the work per-
formed in these two market segments is sometimes not easily differentiated. This is particularly true of
suppliers and vendors to the large prime contractors, for whom defense is a relatively small part of their
total market. Nevertheless, a large proportion of DoD’s dollars are allocated to relatively few industrial
sectors that dedicate a major portion of their work to defense. In fact, more than half of the private sector
defense jobs are in only 11 industrial sectors.‘ Figure 2 lists industries that allocate 10 percent or more of
their jobs to defense. As the figure show's, some of these industries—such as shipbuilding, guided
missiles, tanks, and ammunition—perform nearly all of their work for defense-related customers.
Although defense cutbacks will affect a large number of sectors of the economy, the most dramatic
impact will be on those industries that concentrate heavily on the production of military goods. Often,
the skills and “ways of doing business” that are required in these defense-intensive industries are not
easily transferable to the commercial sector. In other “high-tech” areas like electronics, however, com-

mercial demand could be expected to reduce the impact of defense cutbacks and worker skills could be
readily transferable to the new market.

Figure 2.—Concentration of defense employment

Measuring and Control Instruments #&
" Semiconductors @ ae een
Screw Machine Products Fail
Electrical Components
Plating and Polishing §
Other Business Services
Maintenance and Repair, Public &
Electric Measuring Instruments
Aircraft Engines and Engine Parts
Engineering and Scientific Instruments Fi
Aircraft
Aircraft Parts and Equipment —3
Radio and TV Communications Equipnent
Screw Machine Products —
Other Ordnance and Accessories
Ammunition, Excluding Small Arms &
Tanks and Tank Cornponents &%
Shipbuilding and Repairing
Complete Guided Missiles

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 iT ]
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
Defense Jobs as % of Industry Employment

SOURCE: Data Resources Inc.



Korean Conflict

Both the Korean War buildup and the subsequent demobilization were modest and gradual compared
to the one that had occurred 5 to 10 years earlier. Even at the-completion of hostilities, defense expendi-
tures remained higher than any previous peacetime level, spurred on in part by what was perceived as a
growing Soviet threat and a possible need te prepare for another world war.

As a result, during and after the war the nation embarked on a major preparedness effort that built up

a U.S. war materials stockpile and expanded its basic industries. Dislocations at the close of the war
were modest.

Labor force planners were integrated much more effectively into the overall mobilization management
structure than had been the case in World War II. For the most part, the mobilization was carried out by
existing government organizations under the general control of the Office of Defense Mobilization,
rather than the ad hoc collection of “alphabet soup” agencies that had constantly reshuffled responsibili-
ties during World War II. The Department of Labor (DoL) participated in major defense policy decisions
on issues such as procurement and production scheduling, development of manpower programs for
selected defense industries, alleviating economic distress in high unemployment areas, defense training
programs, accident prevention, housing and community facility needs, and labor force expansion
through more effective utilization of groups such as older or handicapped workers. Overall DoL
priorities in support of the mobilization effort included:

+ Expanding and distributing the labor force where needed through voluntary decisions of labor and
management;

+ Expanding, conserving, and distributing specialized personnel having skills essential to defense
mobilization;

« Insuring the best use and productivity of the labor force;

~* Creating demand for labor in areas where it is located through production, procurement, materials,
and facilities location decisions; and

+ Planning for the contingency of a greater defense effort.!”

Specific activities carried out under DoL or state and local employment agency sponsorship included:

+ Facilitating the entry or transfer of a “greater than normal” number of personnel, including 1
million veterans, into the labor force;

+ Reducing or eliminating area labor shortages and concentrations of unemployment by influencing

contract award, facilities location/expansion, materials allocation, and community employment
planning;

+ Helping relieve intense labor shortages in critical occupations through training, upgrading, transfer,
and job breakdown programs; and

* Developing measures to meet requirements for scientists, engineers, and highly skilled workers by

reducing requirements, accelerating training programs, and encouraging people to participate in
training programs.!®

The coordination efforts were relatively successful in promoting a smooth expansion. The experience
of the war showed the necessity of giving equal attention to demobilization and particularly to the
transition of the work force to a civil economy. Thus, later actions focused on minimizing dislocations
during the subsequent cutbacks. Although the ceasefire did not occur until 1953, the conflict was in a
relatively static stalemate situation for some months prior to that, and the production effort peaked in
September 1952, after which it began to decline.!? Actual defense-related employment had peaked
several months before that, reflecting the completion of facilities expansion and machine tool projects.

138
13%



The Effect of Veterans Benefits on Veterans’
Education and Earnings

Joshua D. Angrist

Since the 1944 GI Bill, the federal government has subsidized education and training for veterans of
the Armed Forces. The rationale for the original GI Bill was to speed the transition to peacetime produc-
tion and to compensate veterans whose educational plans were interrupted by military service (Levitan
and Zickler 1973). Increasingly, however, veterans benefits have come to be seen as an essential recruit-
ing tool in the All-Volunteer Forces (Fernandez 1980). The transition from the post-Korean GI Bill to
the less generous Veterans Educational Assistance Program (VEAP) in 1976 was blamed for a reduction
in high-quality enlistments, and experimental evidence on the value of education benefits as an enlist-
ment incentive was provided by the Educational Assistance Test Program (EATP) in the early 1980s
(Fernandez 1982). in light of results from the EATP, more generous veterans benefits wers re-introduced
through the Army College Fund in 1982 and the Montgomery GI Bill in 1985.

Although the enlistment effects of educational benefits indicate that recruits value these benefits, few
studies have directly considered the question of what benefits are actually worth to veterans.' One of the
few quantitative evaluations of the GI Bill is the study by O’Neill and Ross (1976), who used longitu-
dinal data to estimate the effect of the post-Korean GI Bill on earnings. They find that GI Bill users
eventually enjoy a 10 percent earnings premium over veterans who did not use benefits. In contrast, in a
study of nonveteran educational subsidies, Manski and Wise (1983, p. 22) conclude that, “A large
fraction of Basic Educational Opportunity Grants (BEOG) go to youth who would attend a post-second-
ary school without the awards,” and that (p. 119), “a very significant fraction of the BEOG budget is
spent as a pure subsidy.”

The Manski and Wise findings suggest that civilian educational benefits may have little effect on
educational attainment and therefore little effect on future earnings. Do veterans benefits really improve
the civilian labor market outcomes of veterans? The purpose of this paper is to estimate the effect of
veterans benefits on the educational attainment and earnings of veterans who served in the Vietnam era
and in the first years of the All-Volunteer Forces (AVF). The empirical analysis uses data on veterans
from the Census Bureau's 1987 Survey of Veterans (SOV). The SOV reports information on 1986
earnings, program usage, and the characteristics of veterans before and after their entry into the military.

When evaluating veteran benefits, it is important to keep in mind that veterans who use benefits may
be more educated than nonusers for reasons that have nothing to do with the benefits. In fact, the data

Note: The author is professor of economics at Harvard University and the National Bureau for Education Research. This
research was supported by the U S, Department of Education. The Harvard Institute for Economic Research and the
National Science Foundation also provided financial support. Thanks go to the Department of Veterans Affairs for
providing the data and Veterans Affairs employees Steve Dienstfrey, Tom Fields, Rob Kline, and Susan Krumhaus for
useful background material. Thanks also go to Martin Feldstein, and seminar participants at Harvard, MIT, and Rochester

for many helpful comments. The opinions expressed here are solely those of the author. Data and computer programs used
in this study are available on request.

195

—
Ea)
i)



Redirected vocatienal education, incentives such as guaranteed postsecondary and continuing
education and jobs, and career information and counseling also have potential for the school-to-work
transition.”

In the recent budget reconciliation, the National and Community Service Bill was passed and it is
expected to be funded at $62 million in FY 1991, with substantial increases over the next 2 years. A 21-
member commission will be appointed by the President to administer volunteer programs created by the
bill. The programs covered include the Conservation and Youth Service Corps, a Peace Corps/Vista
demonstration training program for 50 students who have completed at least 2 years of college, and

grants to 2- and 4-year colleges for enhancement of literacy and employment skills of Youth Service
Corps enrollees.

The limited nature of this new national effort is likely to be its major drawback. Recent studies of
vocational education and Job Training Partnership programs indicate that more coordination is needed to
strengthen the academic (remedial education) component as well as the job training component.

Long-term programs, such as an apprenticeship program, and a strengthened Job Training Partnership
program may have the most appeal to a group of noncollege-bound of the “newly unqualified.” Occu-
pational choices are becoming more restricted because the job areas of growth are expected to require
higher skill levels and advanced educational preparation.

Decisions of Emphasis

We believe the higher education authorization process is appropriately addressing the population of
concern to us. the “newly unqualified.” While other populations will leave the military with benezits and
transition assistance, the “newly unqualified” will be an unanticipated pressure for the federal student
assistance programs. From all the available data and interviews, we consider the following programs and
issues essential to adequately support those individuals who would have selected the military services
for its education and training benefits, but who will be unable to enter as a result of the downsizing
policy.

We want to give credit for some of the details of our proposals to the 1991 AASCU Public Policy
agenda presented to the AASCU membership and accepted in principle on November 20, 1990. The
policy agenda is developed by the Office of Governmental Relations, AASCU.

Pre-College Advisement and Student Aid Counseling
Proposal

Increase funding for pre-college TRIO programs (Upward Bound and Talent Search and Educational
Opportunity Centers) with priority to expand summer programs and to involve a broader array of
institutions such as community-based organizations. Involve state higher education authorities in grant
programs focusing on assessment of eligibility and academic preparation for college. Support school

counselors in efforts to adequately advise economically disadvantaged youth regarding chances for
college.

Rationale

Pre-college academic advisement and aid counseling have proven successful as methods to attract and
prepare disadvantaged youth to postsecondary education, At-risk youth progiams have taken many
forms but the keys to success are involvement of faculty and cooperation among community agencies,
schools, and colleges. Unfortunately, the barriers to broader dissemination of these efforts are inherent in
the systems critical to their success, particularly a faculty reward system that does not support public

183

18s



Such a SOC transition program would in effect be a veterans outreach effort connecting in-service
with post-service educational opportunities. The SOC model currently in operation has contributed
significantly to the successful blending of non-traditional education with traditional associate and
bachelor’s degree programs. Guarantees in the transferability of credits, once thc ‘ht impossible, are
now commenplace among institutions within SOC network systems. The strengt’ «ning of the SOC
model by the inclusion of a transition/veterans program would have a positive impact on SOC in general
and all of its programs and services.

Issues

‘There are numerous issues that affect education transition assistance. Some of the limitations and
issues regarding in-service postsecondary education have already been covered. This section will con-
centrate on five issucs that seem to have some overiding considerations when one approaches the
subject.

1, Resourcing Education Transition Assistance

This paper has outlined, in some detail, in-service education resources that may be applied to assisting
servicemembers and their adult family members who separate from the military to continue their post-
secondary pursuits and qualify for entry into the civilian job market, or at least become competitive in
seeking civilian employment. For example, the U. S. Army Transition Counseling Procedures (as
outlined in Table 14) look ideal on paper in AR 621-5. But at an Army installation with 37,000 troops
and thousands more adult family members but only 12 education counselors and no monies for contrac-
tual education transition assistance and support services, these procedures must appear as ridiculous
thetoric. If education transition assistance is to occur in practice, trained professionals on the job are
critical. Qualified education services officers and specialists are needed for leadership and supervision,
but it is the dedicated, trained counselors or academic advisors who are worth their weight in pure gold.
They can be permanent government employees or providers of services by contract but without them,
transition assistance is only paper shuffling and lip-scrvice. Contractual support services and colleges

that support the servicemembers and veterans can fill minor gaps but they can not replace in-service
education counselors.

2. In-Service Education Resources Support for Military Training
and Military Job Performance

Resourcing of education transition assistance is intertwined with divergent schools of thought on how
in-service education funding and personnel resources should be used. Throughout the long history of
adult and continuing education in the military, a continuous battle has been waged for the “soul” of the
voluntary education program and, consequently, its resources. Should education focus on human devel-
opment and personal aspirations for education or on repairing military training and job performance
deficiencies? In other words, should in-service education resources be strictly applied only to education
programs and services that can demonstrate a direct relationship to a military organizational requirement
(preferably in military training and performance readiness arenas) or should in-service education re-
sources support the servicemember in his or her quest for an education? Traditionally, education re-
sources in the military have been used for a balanced mixture of purposes (i.c., support for recruiting,
retention, and other military personnel management objectives; a supplement to military training; and
support of quality of life and human resource development goals ). When this balance is broken, in-
service education suffers. Operations-minded military commanders resent and often resist using criti-
cally short dollars and staff to support the transition of servicemembers back to civilian life. They may
not, in fact, consider this an essential part of their military mission. Hence, monies and manpower
positions designated for implementation of an education transition assistance program must be clearly

75



of the process before they are officially labelled “applicants.” Applicants in military parlance are those
who actually take the ASVAB. Because of aptitude prescreening in particular, many who walk in to talk
to a recruiter don’t even get invited to take the test.°° And chances are, given their lower aptitude scores
relative to whites, a substantial number of minorities are getting tumed away even before they even get a
chance to grab a number 2 pencil and fill in the grids of an ASVAB answer sheet.

It’s interesting to note that the military really doesn’t have to worry about adverse impact from a legal
sense. Neither Title VII of the Civil Rights Act of 1964 nor Executive Order No. 11478 (nor the com-
bined, amended, and reprinted version in 42 U.S. Code) applies to the military. The term “employee”
when it appears in the “code” excludes members of the armed forces. So the fact that DoD has bothered
to validate its test against training and now even job performance criteria and thus meets the Consti-
tution’s due process clause as well as the Title VII standards is a bonus. DoD directives require equal
employment opportunities to be upheld for military personnel.

The question is, will DoD show such sensitivity in the standards it sets for entry? While the test is
valid and higher scoring recruits, on average, outperform lower scoring recruits, no one has yet figured
out the optimal standard or cutting score. How much quality is enough? If the services answer this
question by saying “as much as we can get,” then this is bad news for minorities. Although DoD has
embarked upon a research effort to determine the required quality levels, the answer is not yet available
and the drawdown is expected to have an effect before all the numbers are cruached.

It’s Hard To Give Peace a Chance

Concern over the dark side to the “peace dividend” is mounting and the press is spreading the word.
Bailey Thomson of the Orlando Sentinel recently noted that the military is the nation’s most integrated
institution and asked, “what will its diminished role portend for young blacks?” He added that “thou-
sands of youths who might not qualify in the future for the leaner armed services need other ways to
serve, while getting a leg up on their careers.”*! The New York Times ran an extensive front page story
with a similar message about the social impacts of the military’s increasing selectivity. According to the
article, minority applicants are “crushed” because they can’t meet the rising minimum entry require-
ments. They settle for low-paying dead-end jobs.*? The Boston Globe said that “these young men and
women, and society, will suffer wrenching dislocations if no optional structure is devised to provide the
security and growth potential that the military once offered.”

According to Charles Moskos, black leaders have never been thrilled with the military. Black elected
officials traditionally do not support defense spending. Though the Congressional Black Caucus might
hope that the peace dividend will be spent on domestic programs which would make minorities less
dependent on military opportunities, the truth of the matter is, as a reporter for the Los Angeles Times

claims, there are already “too many claims on the peace dividend.” The “extra” money will go towards
reducing the federal deficit.

The special interest publication Black Issues in Higher Education recently printed a two-part series
entitled “The Military, Education & Minorities,” with a major theme being the impact of the draw-
down.>> Edwin Dorn of the Joint Center for Political Studies said that the anticipated effects of the troop
reductions on blacks and Hispanics were “worrisome.” Reporter Jacqueline Conciatore quoted the
Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Colin Powell, as saying that “DoD must be ‘cautious and
sensitive’ to the impact of troop reduction on minorities.” Powell also said “I would be willing to bet
you that you won’t sec a significant change in the racial-ethnic makeup within the armed services.”*°

Minorities Are On the Rise as Defense Is On the Fall

If Gencra] Powell meant that the racial-ethnic proportions would remain fairly constant in the mili-
tary, then he may be right. But how could he be in light of this latest evidence? Well, it is possible that

32

36



Competency Requirements of Managerial
Jobs in the Public and Private Sector:
Similarities and Differences

Joyce L. Shields and Joanne Adams

Introduction

This is a time of rapid social, political, and environmental change. These changes have been
evidenced by such events as the destruction of the Berlin Wall, free elections in Poland, Czechoslovakia,
Romania, and Hungary, and pressures to reduce the budget deficit through reductions in defense spend-
ing. This will require the U.S. military to reduce and restructure its forces in alignment with the chang-
ing threat. This reduction will lead to a number of civilian personnel seeking positions in the private
sector who were former civilian public sector employees. This reduction raises several policy issues
connected with retraining of military, civilian, and defense personnel and the impact of reduced flows
through the military on educational institutions. The purposes of this paper are to:

+ Present the concept of job competency as a requirement for successful managerial performance;

* Discuss differences and similarities in competency requirements between the public and private
sectors; and

* Present an approach for training and developing competencies, to assist in the transition of civilian
public sector employees to the private sector.

Background

Job competencies are the critical characteristics that cause or predict outstanding job performance in
an organization. The concept of job competencies arose out of a methodology callea Job Competency
Assessment (JCA), which is formulated around three basic assumptions:

1) Inevery job, some people perform more effectively than others. These people also approach their
jobs differently from the average worker.

2) These differences in approach relate directly ic specific characteristics or competencies of the
superior performers that are often absent in the fully successful performers.

3) The best way to discover the characteristics that relate to effective performance in an organization
is to study its top performers.

Note: Joyce L. Shields is president and chief executive officer of Hay Systems Inc. Joanne Adams is director of workforce
assessment and management at Hay Systems.

107
167



the drawdown as well as the strategy followed to achieve the drawdown. We will evaluate two strategies
for drawdown and contrast the training, employment, and educational effects of each during the transi-
tion period and the longer-term steady-state with the baseline period.

The Military Drawdown: Its Size and Pace

The precise size and pace of the military drawdown is still in negotiation between Congress and the
Bush administration, and the extent of the drawdown will only become known as each year’s budget is
passed. However, each service is to develop a 6-year plan which specifies the size and composition of its
forces, After these plans are submitted to the Office of the Secretary of Defense (OSD) for evaluation
and modifications, they become part of the Department of Defense 6-year budget plan submitted in the
President’s budget to Congress. This provides one indication of the administration position on the size
of the drawdown. Other indications are provided by the Senate and House Armed Services Committees’
reports. These documents provide Congressional guidance on the extent and pace of the drawdown.

The service plans usually reflect a beginning negotiating position and as such reflect a relatively smai!
and slow drawdown. Because of party differences, the President’s budget is likely to specify a smaller
and slower drawdown than that desired by the Senate and House Armed Services Committees. The FY
1991 experience confirmed this. The service submissions called for an overall 16 percent reduction in
the size of the Armed Forces over a 4-year period. However, the House (in House Report 101-822 and
Report 101-665) called for a much steeper reduction in military size (see Table 1), with a 7.2 percent
reduction in FY 1991, and extrapolations show an overall 28 percent reduction over 4 years. The Senate
called for a 17 percent reduction by FY 1995 (Committee on the Armed Services, 1991). These two

scenarios provide reasonable bounds for the size and pace of the reductions envisioned prior to the
Persian Gulf war.

Table 1.—Enlisted force reductions (Pre-Persian Gulf war, House Armed Services Committee)

Percentage reduction End strength
from FY90 (thousands)
FY91 Fy94 FY90 FY94
Army 95 35 665 413
Air Force 6.8 25 460 345
Navy 58 25 440 330
Marine Corps 2.9 20 174 139
All Services 7.2 28 1739 1227

The distribution of the reduction among the armed services reflects the nature of the smaller, more
diverse, and more widespread threats which force planners will use for designing future military forces.
Although these distributions will be the subject of intense interest and negotiation over the next few
years, the Army and Air Force will likely have the largest percentage reductions because of their promi-
nent role in NATO and the defense of Europe. By contrast, the more diverse and widespread threats
likely to emerge in the future are better matched to the missions of the Navy and Marine Corps.

The FY 1991 budget and the FY 1991 House and Senate reports were prepared prior to the war with
Traq. It is still not clear how the war will affect the defense drawdown, but initial indications are that the
primary effect will be to simply delay the beginning of the drawdown, without changing its size or pace.
In fact, some analysts believe that while the FY 1991 force cuts will not be made, the FY 1992 through
FY 1994 goals will remain unchanged.

39


rere

path to higher education (given availability of financial aid) cannot be anticipated for all. Instead,
more innovative and strengthened education and training programs must ve available.

3. Veterans in postsecondary education have relied on traditional student assistance programs as
well as veterans benefits. Relatively few have yet used the Montgomery GI Bill benefits; how-
ever, usage should increase as early separatees and reservists leave. This has been projected as
546,300 using benefits by the year 1995.

4. Tuition assistance, which has been the chief vehicle for access to voluntary education for active
duty personnel, will likely be altered in scope and focus. Other sources of assistance (such as
federal student aid programs and veterans benefits) will then be more frequently used by active
duty personnel.

5. Because of articulatic.. and transfer problems, higher education has not been uniformly supportive
of either voluntary education pursuits of servicemembers or other nontraditional students. Nor are
higher education institutions likely to become more receptive when traditional options, such as
Reserve Officer Training Corps (ROTC) scholarship programs, disappear. Better ties between
military education and higher education necessitate policies that address the unique learning needs
of servicemembers, goals of military training, and prospects of veterans.

6. Federal student assistance programs will not be the only or the best route to postsecondary
education and employment for all the populations to be affected by the planned drawdown. Only
a certain percentage of students will use these in traditional higher education institutions. Others
will find apprenticeship programs and shorter educational experiences more appropriate to their
educational preparation and vocational interests.

7. A larger proportion of the “newly unqualified” would be attracted to postsecondary education if
greater emphasis were given to precollege information, advisement, and mentoring programs.

Challenges to the Current Systems: The Demand
for Education Generated by Changes in Military Policies

The changing composition of the military force will continue to generate demand for post-
secondary education. Nevertheless, new selection and retention criteria, as well as budgetary
reductions and other policy changes, could restrict access to postsecondary education and
place additional burdens on student assistance programs.

When one examines the forces as a whole, the diversity is clear. In a recent Washington Post article
on forces in Saudi Arabia (Thursday, November 22, 1990), the following individuals were interviewed:

* A 27-year-old who had attended a private military high school and who was a graduate of an ROTC
unit, now in charge of $10 million worth of high-technology equipment and men of the 24th
Infantry Division;

« A woman private—Hispanic from a small town in the Southwest—who joined to help finance her
college education and left a 3-month-old child behind;

A Vietnam veteran—then a licutenant—now a commander—who believes today’s forces are more
mature and physically fit;

« A 21-year-old from the South who left home to avoid poor career prospects;

+ A physician from a wealthy family of physicians; and

* Second- and third-generation soldiers.”

In projecting demand for postsecondary education, scveral distinct populations must be considered:

(J) recruits, (2) activ. duty enlisted personnel who are involuntarily separated and their families, 3)
active duty personnel who remain in the force, and 4) applicants who are refused military entry.

169


on servicemembers during the year. (See Table 10 for FY 1989 Voluntary Education Program individual
enrollment and degree completion data.) Due in large part to fiscal constraints on the availability of
tuition assistance for servicemembers, FY 1989 data showed a 10 percent decrease in undergraduate
course enrollments (i.e., a drop of 52,014 enrollments from FY 1988 data ) and a 40 percent decrease in
graduate course enroliments (i.e., 37,290 fewer enrollments than shown in FY 1988 data).

Table 10.—DoD voluntary education program individual enrollment/degree completions,

Fiscal Year 1989
Marine Air Total
Army Navy Corps Force DoD
Individual enrollments
High school completion 1,145 165 809 4 2,123
Non-credit courses
Language 94,805 0 0 2,375 97,180
Military specialty 89,602 2,259 981 2,594 95,436
Basic skills 60,348 18,868 7117 1,478 87,811
Postsecondary
Undergraduate 180,117 107,766 29,888 205,626 523,397
Graduate 15,878 6,022 2,808 30,752 55,460
Degree Completions
High schoo/GED 4,181 1,043 4,971 45 10,240
Associate degrees 3,200 1,364 311 10,579 15,454
Baccalaureate degrees 1,362 1,173 384 2,880 5,799
Graduate degrees 1,533 486 329 3,526 5,874
Doctorate degrees 0 0 12 19 31

Source: DANTES Information Bulletin, April 1990, Suppl.3.

FY 1989 data also indicate that DoD spent over $175 million dollars for voluntary education pro-
gcams and services, down from $186 million in FY 1988 (See Table 11). The nearly 40,000 drop in
graduate course enrollments within the Air Force accounts for much of the decrease in expenditures.
Serious budgetary limitations in the late 1980s have resulted in the military services limiting course
enrollments per servicemember, setting maximum limits on tuition assistance permitted per course,
assigning low priority to voluntary graduate education, and questioning undergraduate degree programs
that seemingly have no direct relationship to the servicemember’s military job.

In the Army, voluntary education as provided through the Army Continuing Education System
appears to be drawn under “Self Development,” one of the three pillars of the Army’s Leader Develop-
ment Program, an effort approved by the Army Chief of Staff in 1988 (Vuono 1989). The voluntary
nature of postsecondary programs and goals of college programs offered soldiers may increasingly
reflect Army organizational objectives rather than the personal aspirations of soldiers for an education.
The military services and the Office of the Secretary of Defense have the critical responsibility for
defending the voluntary education budget during the budget reduction crisis of the 1990s. The worthi-
ness of voluntary education, especially postsecondary programs, will be continously scrutinized by all
concerned, A recent book, Adult Higher Education and the Military: Blending Traditional and

65



Notes

‘Magnum and Ball (1989) investigate the effect of training provided while in the military.

*Background material is drawn from the Veterans Administration (1978, 1988) and the Department of Veterans Affairs
(1990).

°GI Bill eligibility for all Vietnam veterans terminated in 1989.

“The 1979 kickers were originally introduced as part of the RAND Multiple Option Recruiting Experiment (MORE), in
which alternative benefit packages were randomly assigned to Armed Forces Entrance and Examining Stations (AFEES).

Shortly after the MORE began, however, kickers were made available to eligible recruits at most of the AFEES (Fernandez
1982).

SEligibility was further restricted to those entering certain occupations while in the military.

“Angrist and Krueger (1991) present evidence that schooling is not correlated with the error term in human capital earnings
functions.

7Griliches and Mason (1972) separately estimate the returns to entry-level schooling and the post-service schooling
increment for a sample of veterans surveyed in 1964. ‘They argue (p. $82) that grade increment is uncorrelated with
personal background variables and ability, so that estimates based on the schooling increment are close to those that would
arise from an experiment designed to estimate the returns to schooling. On the other hand, model (4) may be inaccurate
because veterans who served in different periods used different programs. In this case, OLS estimates of y in the grade

increment equation converge to a weighted average of the underlying population treatment effects (Heckman and Robb
1985).

"The 1987 survey was the third survey of veterans. An earlier survey was conducted in 1979, and a telephone survey was
conducted in 1977. Other sources of informatson on veterans include the Current Population Survey veteran supplements
in September 1989, November 1987, and April 1985. The 1979-87 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY) and the

1966-1981 National Longitudinal Survey of Young Men panel data sets also interviewed veterans, although the NLSY
military subsample was dropped in 1984.

See Department of Veterans Affairs (1989) for details and exceptions to this rule.

The SOV questionnaire collects information on single years of age, and on the exact years of entry to and exit from the
military.

"The period of service recodes differ somewhat from individuals self-reported period of service in that individuals who
claim only reserve duty in a period are listed with service in the period. In cases where individuals have service in more
than two periods, one of which includes a war, the recodes indicate only the wartime service. This should have no impact

on a sample restricted to Vietnam and Early AVF veterans (personal communication with Steve Dienstfrey, Department of
Veterans Affairs).

"Statistics are unweighted. The SOV includes a sampling weight derived from the CPS. Results proved insensitive to
weighting, and so only unweighted estimates are reported.

"The breakdown of VA program usage should be treated with caution. Census Bureau experience with the CPS Veterans
Supplement suggests that vetcrans do not distinguish accurately between the different VA programs (personal

correspondence with Sharon Cohany, Bureau of Labor Statistics). There is a tendency to refer to all veterans educational
benefits as “the GI Bill.”

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Assessment (OTA) report stated that “because the great majority of the workforce of 2000 is employed
now, upgrading employed workers’ skills will have the greatest competitive impact in the near and
medium term.” Labor demand projections, demographic changes, skills of the current workforce, and
common U.S. production practices have been mentioned to support the need to train more of the
workforce.

Labor Demand Projections

Projections indicate that there will be increased demand for higher-skilled workers, due to (1) sub-
stantial projected growth in occupations with higher educational requirements, (2) the possible “up-
skilling” of jobs that are currently low-skilled, and (3) the stagnation of many jobs that utilize unskilled
or very low-skilled labor.‘ This demand for higher skills should be partially offset by additional oppor-
tunities for new entrants in lower skilled jobs and job turnover/replacement due to retirement of older
workers in lower skilled jobs.

Demographic Projections

There will be a decreasing number of new entrants into the labor force, as the baby bust generation
reaches working age. Minorities will become a larger portion of the labor force of 2000, and historical
educational attainment data, unemployment rate experience, and low minority group representation
among rapidly growing high-skilled occupations all indicate that many new entrants may not possess
necessary skills.

Skills of the Workforce

There are a number of steps employers can take when the skills of their existing workforce are in-
adequate. While training may be the least expensive alternative, other strategies are also taken. Some
believe that employers hire new workers with the skills required for a job and eliminate workers whose
skills are obsolete whenever substantial changes in technology and process are introduced. This replace-
ment of the workforce is also seen when older workers are offered attractive retirement packages so that
new workers with more appropriate skills can be hired.‘ In these instances, companies sometimes
relocate in order to tap into a better trained labor pool. One study concluded that by the year 2000, 75
percent of ali workers who are currently employed will need retraining.”

U.S. Mass Production

Recent reports by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Commission on Industrial
Productivity and the Commission on the Skills of the American Workforce discuss the role of mass
production in the U.S. economy and indicate that it may be responsible for significant losses in the
competitive position of the U.S. in the market for goods.® Mass production, or the “Taylor model,”
began to characterize U.S. manufacturing in the early 20th century and continues in many firms today.
Under this type of production, complex jobs are broken down into specialized, simple, repetitive tasks
that require responsible, steady workers, but do not require much skill or education. Only supervisors
and managers must be educated because they make decisions, solve problems, and “think” for the
organization. A large hierarchial structure with complicated administrative procedures is used to manage
and control workers. This production strategy allow’s large volumes to be produced, but offers little
opportunity for flexibility in process or product. In the 1950s and 1960s, most products were sold to
domestic markets, and other countries offered little competition to American goods. When American.
goods were sold abroad, there was littis change in product, ways of business, or cultural awareness,
which resulted in limited success. Over time, foreign companies began to produce higher quality goods
at lower prices and began to capture significant portions of the U.S. market which had been previously
served by domestic production of goods. As a result of the inferior quality and higher cost of U.S.
goods, the United States has faced significant losses in its competitive position for manufactured goods.

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"This amount can be even greater—up to $25,000—for persons in particular skills with the Army and Navy.

Molly Hexter and Elaine El-Khawas, Joining Forces: The Military’s Impact on College Enrollments, (Washington, DC:
American Council on Education, October 1988) 32. Comparable figures for whites were not provided.

*David Boesel and Kyle Johnson, The DoD Tuition Assistance Program: Participation and Outcomes (Arlington, VA:
Defense Manpower Data Center, May 1988).

U.S. Department of Defense, Population Representation, 33.

Department of Defense, Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense (Force Management and Personnel), Human
Resource Development in the Department of Defense: Issues and Initiatives for Military Selection and Classification. A
Report to the House and Senate Committees on Armed Services. (Washington, DC: July 1990) 2.

See Janice H. Laurence, Enlisted Personnel Quality: Changes and Consequences, HII 89-23. (Alexandria, VA: HumRRO-
International, Inc., August 1989), 10.

*Department of Defense, Population Representation, p. 34.

See Hexter and El-Khawas, Joining Forces.

Mark J. Bitelberg, Manpower for Military Occupations, (Washington, DC: Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense
(Force Management and Personnel}, April 1988): 169, 172.

*Andrew Moskos, “Black exceptionalism: Making it in the military,” Black Issues in Higher Education, 8 (4) (26 April
1990): 76.

”These data are based upon a nationwide administration of the ASVAB in 1980. For details see, U.S. Department of
Defense, Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense (Manpower, Reserve Affairs and Logistics), Profile of American
Youth: 1980 Nationwide Administration of the Armed Services Vocational Aptitude Battery (Washington, DC: March
1982). Despite the passage of 10 years, drastic changes in the scores for minority and majority members are unlikely given

the stability of aptitudes over time. However, given the changing demographics of the youth population, an update may
soon show a downward shift in the overall aptitude distribution if all other conditions remain the same.

*Bitelberg. Manpower for Military Occupations.
Sve James Ledvinka, Federal Regulation of Personnel and Human Resource Management (Boston: P.W.S. Kent, 1982).

*Recruiters administer a shortened version of the AFQT known as the EST or CAST to prospective recruits. Low scorers
are not sent forward to the Military Entrance Processing Stations (MEPS) to continue enlistment application and
processing.

“Bailey Thomson, “As Military Shrinks, Will Equal Opportunity for Blacks?” Orlando Sentinel, 13 May 1990: G3.

TMPeter Applebome, “As Armed Forces Cut Back, Some Lose a Way Up in Life,” The New York Times, 7 May 1990:
1, D-12.

“Thinning Military Ranks,” Boston Globe, 15 May 1990: 12.
Sce Melissa Healy, “Military Cutbacks Likely to Hit Blacks the Hardest,” Los Angeles Times, 4 May 1990: 28.

The Military, Education & Minorities” (Parts I and II), Black Issues in Higher Education 7 & & (3 & 4)
(12, 26 April 1990).

‘Jacqueline Conciatore, “Effects of troop reductions on blacks, Hispanics concern Joint Center,” Black Issues in Higher
Education 8 (4) (26 April 1990) 17.

"Sce Janice H. Laurence, Peter F, Ramsberger, and Monica A. Gribben, Effects of Military Experience on the Post-Service
Lives of Low-Aptitude Recruits: Project 100,000 and the ASVAB Misnorming, FR-PRD-89-29. (Alexandria, VA: Human
Resources Research Organization, December 1989).

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from major subordinate military commands, it is the local commander that staffs, funds, and operates the
base education center and its programs and services. In the final analysis, it is the local commander and
his/her education officer or specialist who determine the “how, what, how much, when, and who”
regarding college programs, testing services, and education counseling made available to service-
members. This decentralization of the education function causes considerable differences in the avail-
ability of programs and services and the capabilities of servicemembers to take advantage of what
programs and services that are available. Some education-minded commanders will cause their education
function to prosper by providing the necessary funding, personnel, and command support to ensure its
success. They encourage servicemembers to participate in higher education programs as true adult
learners striving to achieve their own aspirations. These commanders will not allow tuition assistance to
be denied troops engaged in recognized college programs such as provided through SOCAD, SOCNAV,
and BDFS and the CCAF. On the other hand, commanders who give less priority to education may
divert monies sent to them for tuition assistance and education center operations to support military
training, purchase military supplies and equipment, or even pave base roads, while their servicemembers
are denied educational opportunities.

The quality and quantity of on-base education staff personnel vary widely. Career selection and
management within the GS 1710 career field of Civil Service have their limitations and difficulties,
factors are often reflected in the educational support available to servicemembers. Similarly the quality
and availability of college advisors and faculty vary widely. The quality of on-base postsecondary
programs continues to be a controversial issue, with the military relying principally on institutional
integrity, civilian accrediting bodies, and state approving agencies for quality assurance (Anderson
& Kime 1990).

In summary, in-service postsecondary programs are (a) command-driven, (b) not universally avail-
able, (c) unequal in quality, and (d) subject to funding and personnel deficiencies and limitations, at
times critically severe. In general, however, the military and its supporting educational institutions have
a distinguished record in providing postsecondary education opportunities for servicemember-students,
even under the most trying circumstances. SOC and its networking systems, CCAF and DANTES have
brought about, in both theory and practice, considerable commonality in col!ege admissions, program-
ming, transfer of credits, and acceptance of academic testing. The concept of blending nontraditional and
traditional education has taken hold and is expanding in practice among colleges and universities.
Higher education as made available within the military has contributed significantly to the larger adult
and continuing education movement throughout the the United States. The part-time adult college
student is becoming the norm, instead of the exception (Palmer 1990). As adult and continuing educa-
tion grows and become more and more accepted in academe, its roots in the military should be recog-
nized and appreciated.

Transition Management Initiatives

Education for servicemembers preparing for the transitiun from active duty to civilian life has con-
siderable historical precedent. Even during the rapid demobilization after World War II, USAFI and on-
base education centers gave high priority to assisting servicemembers to obtain as much education as
time and resources permitted to better equip them for the transition and to compete successfully in the
civilian job market (Strehlow 1967). During the mid-1970s, as many of the Vietnam-era troops were
reverting to civilian status, the military, by presidential order, instituted Project Transition to allow
servicemembers to attend to school or civilian job training during their last 6 months of active duty,
anticipating separation. Many servicemembers took the opportunity to ease their entry back to civilian
life by working with prospective civilian employers such as Sears Roebuck, Montgomery Ward, General
Electric, Ryder Trucking, and Volkswagen International. Staff positions were set aside for the operation
of Project Transition. For example, at Fort Sheridan, Illinois (north of Chicago), the education services

officer had a major, captain, a lieutenant, a GS-11, and a transition counselor on base to operate Project
Transition.

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show that benefit users have more schooling than nonusers before entering the military. To control for
individual characteristics that are correlated with both benefits and the level of educational attainment, a
fixed effects strategy is employed. This strategy entails a regression of the increment in veterans’
educational attainment since entering the military on a program-use dummy and other control program-
use variables. The effect of veterans benefits on earnings is then estimated by decomposing the return to
education into a return to grade at entry and a return to the grade increment. Underlying this approach is
the assumption that veterans benefits have no effect on earnings other than through educational attain-
ment. The empirical results support this assumption.

Another important characteristic of veterans benefits is that veterans must acquire some sort of
training to be eligible for benefits. Thus, it is no surprise that users of veteran benefits end up more
educated than they were upon entry to the military. But nonusers also acquire additional schooling in the
intervening years. This may be because government subsidies simply replace alternative sources of
funding. In the case «f veterans educational subsidies, however, I show that benefit users complete 1.4

years of schooling over and above the additional schooling acquired by veterans who did not use
educational benefits.

To further substantiate the interpretation of the difference in the education increment between benefit
users and nonusers as being attributable to the use of benefits, Two-Stage Least Squares (TSLS) esti-
mates of the grade increment equations are also reported. In this case, the excluded instruments are
interactions between period of service and grade at entry to service. This estimation strategy uses the
reduction in benefit usage following the introduction of VEAP as a natural experiment that generated
exogenous variation in benefit usage. Because the reduction in benefit generosity under VEAP was more
iikely to reduce benefit usage among less educated veterans, the difference in the change in benefit usage
by grade at entry identifies the effect of benefits on grade increment while controlling for secular grade-
at-entry and period-of-service effects.

The paper is organized as follows. The next section describes the educational benefits available to
Vietnam and early AVF veterans. Section 2 outlines a statistical model for the evaluation of veterans
benefits and describes the SOV data. Section 3 reports estimates of the basic model. Section 4 describes
the TSLS estimation strategy and reports the resulting estimates. Section 5 offers a summary and some
conclusions,

1. Benefits for Vietnam and Early AVF Veterans”

Veterans benefits fund a wide range of educational programs and vocational training. Veterans
programs included subsidies and loans for attending vocational and technical schools, correspondence
courses, 2- and 4-year colleges, flight training, and apprenticeships. Since their inception, veterans
benefits have been the largest single federal program for student aid (Fernandez 1980).

This study focuses on cohorts of veterans who were eligible for benefits under two of the three most
important pieces of benefit legislation since the Korean War. Included are Vietnam veterans, who served
between August 1964 and May 1975, and veterans of the early AVF period, who served from May 1975
to September 1980. Vietnam veterans were eligible for benci: . under the post-Korean GI Bill, some-
times known as the “noncontributory GI Bill”. AVF veterans who entered the military after December
31, 1976, were eligible for benefits under a contributory program known as the VEAP. Beginning in
1979, a number of smaller programs were introduced, culminating in the Army College Fund in 1982.
The third major piece of post-Korean War benefits legislation was the Montgomery GI Bill in 1985,
which re-instated benefit levels roughly comparable to those available under the noncontributory GI Bill.
Attention is focused here on Vietnam and early AVF veterans because these groups have had time to re-
enter the civilian labor market by 1986, the year for which earnings are recorded in the 1987 SOV.

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The lower part of Table 2 repeats the differences-in-differences analysis for a more homogenous
sample. This sample includes only Vietnam era enlisted men who were not drafted. Here the difference
in preservice schooling levels by program users is more pronounced, but the estimate of the effect of
program use is nearly identical to that in the larger sample.

Table 3 reports estimates of equations (4), (5), and (6), along with estimates of the undifferenced
education equation, (1), and the human capital earnings function, (2). Each equation includes a full set of
interaction terms to control for age and years of service using all available informaiion on the SOV tape
(there are 18 such interactions}. The education equations also include dummy variables to indicate race
other than white, Vietnam era service,'5 service as an officer or draftee, marital status or the change in
marital status, and whether VA education benefits were used by the respondent.

Table 3. The effect of veterans benefits on education and carnings (standard errors in

parentheses)
Regressor Dependent variable
Highest grade Grade! Log 1986 earnings
completed increment
qa) @ 3) @ GS ©
AGE * YRSRV 4.30 2.36 4.44 4.05 4.09 4.04
F-Test (df = 18)
All races other than white — -0.057 0.055 0.211 -0.208 -0.207 -0.208
(0.111) (0.091) (0.042) (0.042) (0.042) (0.642)
Vietnam -0.537 0.202 0.055 0.084 0.084 0.084
(0.193) (0.159) (0.074) (0.074) (0.075) (0.075)
Officer 3.022 -0.224 0.284 0.180 0.207 0.180
(0.130) (0.107) (0.060) (0.064) (0.065) (0.065)
Drafted -0.111 -0.265 0.051 0.038 0.029 0.038
(0.102) (0.084) (0.040) (0.040) (0.040) (0.040)
Married/A married 0.049 6.108 0.318 0.322 0.324 0.322
(0.084) (0.057) (0.033) (0.033) (0.033) (0.033)
Use VA benefits 1.59 1.35 0.058 -0.002
(0.074) (0.060) (0.029) (0.033)
Highest grade 0.065
completed (0.008)
Grade at entry 0.096 0.085 0.096
(0.010) (0.010) (0.01C)
Grade increment 0.043 0.043
(0.010) (0.010)
R? 0.34 0.22 0.19 0.20 0.19 0.20

Notes: Sample described in notes to Table 1. AGE*YRSRV F-Test is an F statistic for the joint significance of a full set of
age and years-of-service dummies.

‘Change in marital Status replaces marital status.

Column (1) of Table 3 reports estimates of the current years of schooling equation, (1), and column
(2) reports estimates of the differenced equation, (4). As in fable 2, estimates of the undifferenced

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A job competency model is comprised of several individual competencies, which include knowledge,
skills, attitudes and values, and traits and motives. These characteristics exist at various levels in a
person, with the inner levels (traits, motives) representing characteristics that are moze enduring, and
often having a wider range of effect on the individual’s behavior. Further, the more complex the job, the
more important job competencies are relative to technical or task mastery. These characteristics are
illustrated in Figure 1.

Figure 1.—Competency levels

Most Difficult to
Develop

Most Easily

Knowledge
Developed

Often our “gut feeiings” teli us when someone is a high performer in a iob, but we can’t exactly tell
why it is so; the qualities that lead to high performance levels are often diificult to identify. However,
traditional job analysis approaches focus entirely on the tasks performed in the job rather than on top
performers. An error in this approach is that it will usually lead to a definition of what is required for
average or even minimum performance. JCA takes a more direct approach by focusing on the superior
rather than the average performers, to find out what they do when they are in critical job situations in
which they believe they have been effective. JCA is composed of four main activities:

1) Convening expert panels to identify the characteristics that superior performers use to make

themselves highly successful, to define the major accountabilities and responsibilities of the target

positions, and to “nominate” competencies which appear to distinguish superior and threshold
performance.

2) Analyzing of questionnaire responses about the job competencies which are more characteristic of
superior performers than average performers with whom the respondent is familiar.

3) Conducting in-depth interviews, called Behavioral Event Interview s (BEIs), with a sample of
superior job incumbents and a sample of average job incumbents to identify competencies demon-
strated in their work experiences.

4) Consolidating this information into a competency model, which describes the characteristics that
distinguish the superior performers frorn others.

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Consequently, ali military occupational specialties lend themselves to some higher education
that complements the job and supplements the training.*

In a downsized force, manpower requirements may become even more technical as the military
increases its dependence on technology. Projections indicate that clerical positions, rather than high!y
technical jobs, are likely candidates for deep manpower cuts.? Changes in the distribution of occu-
pational specialties, if they occur, may enhance the value of in-service education. “tt will require an
educated force to properly use that technology, and the force will have to be better educated to stay in,”
says one military educator.

Obtaining in-service education credentials, already perceived as a factor in promotion and retention,
is likely to give military personnel a greater competitive edge in the smaller force. “Promotions will
become tighter and education will assume more importance” in promotion decisions, according to a
military education officer.

Thus, shifting manpower needs, a more competitive environment, and finally, the career and educa-
tional goals of a leaner but more qualified force could well generate ~ iditional demand for continuing
education. Says one military educator, “The services will begin to encourage even more educational
endeavors within the military for technological purposes. And whenever the military downsizes, you
theoretically end up with the best of the best—people with higher educational aspirations. These peopie
will be much more eager to pursue educational opportunities, and the military will have to provide those
opportunities.”

Those Refused Military Entry

Over the next 5 years, a DoD manpower analysis estimates that the military will need 316,000 fewer
young men and women than would have been required without the drawdown to meet its recruiting
goals of 200,000 per year." In all likelihood, these new goals will be accompanied by more restrictive
entrance standards. The “newly unqualified,” as they are labeled in this analysis, are likely to be dispro-
portionately minority and disproportionately Southern. Minorities will be hit harder if aptitude require-
ments are raised because they have lower median Armed Forces Qualifying Test (AFQT) scores. Many
will likely seek employment rather than further education after high school because they lack adequate
avademic preparation and financial resources. Others may begin a postsecondary program but fail to
persist because of limited finances.

What is likely to happen if the military, seen in recent years as a vehicle for career opportunity
especially for black youth, no longer represents a training and employment option or a bridge between
high school and further education for these young people? Will community colleges, as some claim,
absorb a portion of those refused entry into the military? Or will these youth simply join the plight of
other noncollege-bound youth who flounder in temporary, low-pay and low-status jobs? Although no
one set of institutions or programs will serve as a proxy for the military experience, community colleges
and vocational/technical schools are positioned to play an important role in providing desired short-term
education and training opportunities that will lead to meaningful employment. Also, training and ap-
prenticeship programs could serve this population well if they were expanded and strengthened.

Unanticipated Demand: “Newly Unqualified’? Replacements
for Traditional College-Age Students?

The “newly unqualified” for military service are expected to have a modest effect on student
assistance programs. These prospective students may indeed be considered as replacements

for the expected enrollment declines in the number of traditional college-age students. While
most would have high school diplomas, their academic preparation would be uneven and the

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down” impacts on local economies that are highly dependent on existing defense installations for
their economic survival

¢ Reductions in military contract spending on weapons acquisition, with corresponding reductions in
the workforce of selected defense prime contractors, subcontractors, vendors, and government
arsenals, depots, and laboratories. Layoffs by a number of major defense contractors have already
begun, and additional firms are expected to take similar action in the days ahead. For example, the
trade magazine Aviation Week and Space Technology (September 10, 1990) reports that 45,000
aerospace jobs had been targeted for elimination in the next 18 months, and that an additional
$0,006 -135,000 jobs in the vendor base could be lost as a result of cutbacks in prime contracts.
Most of these jobs are expected to be in manufacturing. Already, McDonnell Douglas has elimi-
nated 14,000-17,000 jobs due to poor financial performance; General Dynamics laid off 1,150
personnel this year due to cancellations; and Northrop has reduced its workforce by about 3,000 to
accommodate changes in the B-2 program.

It is clear that careful planning and innovative programs will be required to meet the needs of these
three populations as they transition to new jobs. Many of the problems that these individuals will face
during the dislocation can be ameliorated by effective education and training programs—which may

extend beyond those that are available today—as well as by other human resource measures that promote
reemployment.

The purpose of this paper is to provide a brief review of U.S. experience with retraining and
reemployment of defense workers during three periods when the Department of Defense (DoD) budget
was reduced significantly. The first of these is the extensive demobilization of military forces in the late
1940s following the end of World War II; the second involves the reemployment of workers after the
termination of hostilities in Korea in the mid-1950s; and the third addresses defense and aerospace
spending cutbacks in the early- and mid-1970s due to the winding down of hostilities in Vietnam and the
post-Apollo spending cuts at NASA. Research shows little documentation of substantial and directed
efforts toward retraining and reeducating of displaced defense workers. However, there are other facets
of the experiences from which one can draw important lessons.

In deriving lessons learned from these experiences, the paper addresses the degree of economic
dislocations caused by reduced defense spending; the amount and effectiveness of advance planning for
spending and employment cutbacks undertaken by DoD, other government agencies, and the private
sector; and the role of retraining in past reemployment efforts. In the final section, the paper presents
summary conclusions on the applicability of past experience to problems facing defense workers today.
It also identifies the policy issues that are raised by the impending reduction of the nation’s defense
industry.

Background

Before describing the lessons learned from past experiences, it is important to understand the nature

of today’s defense industry and the characteristics of the workers who are likely to be affected by the
planned cutbacks,

What Was the Extent of the Most Recent Defense Buildup?

Although the defense buildup was considered to be a major one, it was significantly smaller (in terms
of its national economic impact) than those occurring during past wartime periods, and most analysts
agree that economic dislocations from the resulting drawdown will therefore be less severe. At the peak
of the buildup, defense spending rose to roughly the same levels reached at the peak of both the Korean
War (1953) and the Vietnam War (1968). However, the present-day defens- budget represents a much
smaller share of GNP and a much more modest compcnent of the national t udget than was attained

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directly job-related than military training. In addition, of course, they will be spending additional years
in the civilian rather than the military work force, and presumably—other things equal—would receive
equivalent or betier job-related training for their specific civilian jobs. Of course, not all might be in
training or working during this time, and some types of civilian jobs might not provide very useful
training. Recent studies of the value of military training provide mixed indications of whether individu-
als are better off in terms of future earnings and employability if they follow military vs. civilian paths
into the work force (DeTray 1980, Fredland and Little 1980, and Laurence 1989). If the effects are close
to neutral and the lower military spending produces positive effects on the civilian economy, then it is
possible that simple substitution occurs, with civilian training replacing military training with no overall
effects on long-term earnings.

The Education Effect

Tables 7 and 8 show the number of 1-5 YOS and 6-15 YOS losses from the servio€s under the
different scenarios. The loss rates are quite sensitive to the time period and scenario chosen.

Table 7.—Number of YOS 1-5 losses (thousands)

% Change % Change

(1980-89 to (1980-89 to

Scenario 1980-89 1992-96 1992-96) 2000-10 2000-10)
Junior 189 144 24 158 16
Senior 189 135 33 126 33

Table 8.—Number of YOS 6-15 losses (thousands)

% Change % Change
(1980-89 to (1980-89 to
Scenario 1980-89 1992-96 1992-96) 2000-10 2000-10)
Junior 51 55 8 51 0
Senior 51 77 51 44 14

In the transition period for the 1-5 YOS group, the losses decrease by 24 to 31 percent from 1980
levels, with the expected larger levels of 1-5 YOS separations from the junior scenario. It may be
surprising that losses do not increase during this period from those of the 1980s. There are two reasons
they do not increase. First, levels of accessions have continually declined from 1980 through the present
due to the high retention experience of the Armed Forces during the 1980s. Higher pay levels are
tesponsible for much of this higher retention.

Second, during the drawdown, accession levels will continue to decline. Although some of those
accessed will be involuntarily separated—raising losses above steady-state force size levels—the lower
level of accession dominates the involuntary separations in determining overall losses.

In the longer run, the loss levels for the junior and senior drawdown decline by 16 and 33 percent,
respectively. These differences reflect the fact that higher accession levels are needed in the 2000-10
period if a more junior drawdown is executed today. Lower than required accession levels today mean
higher than required levels 10 to 15 years from now.

In the transition pexin4 for the group aged 25 to 34, the losses in the junior drawdown scenario
increase slightly, but there is a large increase in this group for the senior drawdown. This pattern simply

45

a.
oO



. NOCTI test title: Heavy Equipment Mechanics (TOCT test code 069)

MOS: Construction Equipment Repairer (Army MOS-62B-003; similar occupational titles in
other branches)

Training/competencies: Supervises or performs maintenance of equipment, gasoline, diesel and
electrically powered construction and associated equipment; diagnoses malfunctions and
determines the level of maintenance to be performed; performs final inspection of
repaired equipment.

State/national licensure implications: Most often no license is required. In the few cases where
state license is required, standards vary by state.

. NOCTI test title: Auto Mechanics (TOCT test code 003)

MOS: Light Wheel Vehicle Mechanics (Army MOS-63B-003; similar occupational titles in
other branches)

Training/competencies: Diagnoses and repairs internal combustion engines, accessories, power
trains, and chassis components; road tests vehicles; supervises and instructs subordinates
in test and repair procedures as well as shop practices.

State/national licensure implications: Many states require auto mechanics to pass a written
examination to be licensed. The national Automotive Service Excellence (ASE) exami-
nation is accepted in many states for licensure.

. NOCTI test title: Printing (TOCT test code offset 019; letter press test code 073)
MOS: Photolithographer (Army MOS-83F-002; similar occupational titles in other branches)
Training/competencies: Operates bindery equipment, offset presses, and duplicating equipment,
svrervises photolithographic activities; makes quality checks; performs maintenance on
printing and binding equipment.
State/national licensure implications: No licensure is required.

. NOCTI test title: Machine Trades (TOCT test code 020)

MOS: Machinery Repairman (Navy NER-MR-001; similar occupational titles in other
branches)

Training/competencies: Performs maintenance using machine shop equipment, lathes, milling
machines, boring mills, grinders, power hacksaws, drill presses, and other machine
tools; performs maintenance on machine tools; reads blueprints; solves basic algebraic
and trigonometric layout problems.

State/national licensure implications: No licensure required.

. NOCTL test title: Drafting Occupations (TOCT test code 060)

MOS: Technical Drafting Specialist (Army MOS-81B-003; similar occupational titles in other
branches)

Training/competencies: Diafts detailed working plans for construction of bridges, roads, piers,
buildings, and utilities; assists in the construction or design drafting; prepares drawings
and plans of miscellaneous structures and mechanical and electrical devices.

State/national licensure implications: States do not require draftsmen to be licensed.

. NOCTI test title: Auto Body Repair (TOCT test code 002)
MOS: Metal Worker; (Army MOS-44B-003; similar occupational titles in other branches)
Training/competencies: Repairs and straightens metal body panels and shect metal; welds
ferrous and non-ferrous metals; removes and replaces body trim; prepares surfaces for
painting; fabricates parts.
State/national licensure implications: A few states require licensure but the standards widely
vary.

88



the newly unqualified is 19.8 years, and that of all recruits is 19.9 years. Typically, members of both
groups are recent high school graduates entering the full-time labor force for the first time.

Table 1.—Age of selected military and civilian populations

Age Newly unqualified FY 1989 recruits All civilians

<18 4 5 26.3
18 31 34 1.5
19 27 23 1.5
20 13 12 14
21 7 7 14
22 4 5 14
23 4 4 1.5
24 2 3 1.6
25+ 7 7 63.4

Total 100 100 100.0

There is a slightly higher proportion of 19-year-olds among the newly unqualified than among all
recruits and a slightly lower proportion of 18-year-olds. This may reflect a tendency on the part of
potential recruits with relatively low AFQT scores to apply later than others, either because they are
slightly older when they graduate from high school or because they are more likely to turn to the
military after unsuccessfully searching for jobs in the civilian economy.

Sex

Males predominate among the newly unqualified, as they do among all recruits (see Table 2).
Approximately seven-eighths of both groups are males. On the other hand, among civilians aged 18 to
24, females slightly outnumber males. The somewhat larger proportion of males among tne newly
unqualified than among all recruits reflects the fact that the women selected for enlistment have some-

what higher AFQT scores than the men, a consequence of service constraints on the number of billets
open to women.

Table 2.—Sex of selected military and civilian populations

Sex Newly unqualified FY 1989 recruits Civilians 18 to 24

Male 88 86 49

Female 12 14 51

Total 190 100 100
Race/Ethnicity

The newly unqualified are almost as different from the youth population in terms of race as they are
in terms of age and gender. The unqualified are about three times as likely to be black as all youth aged
18 to 24 (see Table 3), Some 41 percent of the newly unqualified are black, as compared to 14 percent of
civilian youth. Further, because of an association between race and AFQT scores, the newly unqualified

12



Contents

Introduction — Nevzer Stacey

Panel One: Military Cutbacks and Their Implications for Non-College Bound Youth

1. Cutting Recruits: A Profile of the Newly Unqualified
—— David Boesel 5

2. Crew Cuts: Effects of the Defense Drawdown on Minorities
— Janice Laurence (Delivered by Mark J. Eitelberg) 21

3. Impact of the Military Drawdown on Youth Employment, Training and Educational Opportunity"
— David Grissmer 37

Panel Two: Educational Resources Available to Individuals Making a Transition from the
Military to the Civilian Sector

4, Educational Resources Available for Transition of Servicemembers
— Clinton Lee Anderson 49

5. The Use of NOCTI Examinations to Assist Military Personnel Moving into the Civilian
Workforce

—Scott Whitener 81

6. Competency Requirements of Managerial Jobs in the Public and Private Sector: Similarities and
Differences

— Joyce L. Shields and Joanne Adams 107

Panel Three: The Role of Educationat Policy at the Workplace

7. Lessons from the Past: Mit‘gating the Effects of Military Cutbacks on Defense Workers
— Lois Lembo and Judith Philipson 129

8. Firm-Based Education and Training of Workers: A Case Study of the Xerox Corporation
— Burt Barnow and Amy B.Chasanov 151

Panel Four: Effects of Cutbacks on Postsecondary Institutions and the U.S. Workforce

9. The Impact of Military Drawdowns on Student Assistance Programs
— Meredith Ludwig and Holly Hexter 167

10. The Effects of Veterans Benefits on Veterans’ Education and Earnings
—Joshua D. Angrist 195

iii

CT



Worker Mobility

A major barrier that deters employers from training is workers’ ability to take the newly acquired
skills with them. Worker mobility often causes firms to think they will not benefit fully from their
training effort, and they offer less training as a result. Additionally, employers are more likely to train
workers in specific skills that are unique to the firm (e.g., how to run a piece of equipment) than general/
basic skills (e.g., writing, mathematics) because specific skills are less transferable.

Table 1.—State programs that specifically address retraining

Program

Requirements

California Employment and Training Program

Connecticut Customized Job Training

Idaho Economic/Productivity
Improvement Projects

Illinois Prairie State 2000

Indiana Basic Industry Retraining
Program (BIRT)

Maryland Industrial Training Program

Massachusetts Industrial Services Program

Michigan Job Opportunity Bank-Upgrade
Missouri Customized Training Program

New York Employer Specific Training
Program

New York Economic Development Skills
Training Program

North Carolina Focused Industriat
Training Program

Oklahoma Existing Industry Specific
Training Program

Oregon Targeted Training Fund

Wisconsin Development Fund

Workers that have been laid off or may be
laid off

Employers undergoing technological changes

Upgrade training when new technology is
introduced into workplace

Businesses introducing new technology or
products and individuals updating their skills

Manufacturing firms retraining employees whose
jobs altered due to technological or other changes

Separate $1 million for upgrading and retraining

Prevent layoffs and plant closings, and develop
workers’ skills that are in demand in other
industries when they are laid off

Small- & medium-sized business that modernize
technological operations

Retraining as a result of new products, services,
technologies, or productivity requirements

Provide upgrading if companies provide
continual employment

Employers introducing new technology

Training to upgrade and retrain employees to meet
demand of new technology introduced into workplace

Businesses undergoing technological change

Retraining if employers retain workers

Industries introducing new products and/or
processes

Source: American Society for Training and Development, New Foundations: State Economic Growth Through Training,

Fall 1989.

Competitive Position

Many researchers believe that in order for the United States to maintain its competitive position,
significant investment in human capital must be made. Many foreign governments and foreign companies.

154



It is currently uncertain how the services will allocate the involuntary separations across the force.
One reason for this uncertainty is that the level of separation payments that would be available to more
senior personnel is uncertain. Enlisted personnel who are involuntarily separated with less than 7 years
of service receive no separation pay. Those with over seven years of service would receive separation
pay equal to 10 percent of current pay for each year of service completed. At 10 years of service, an
enlisted person would receive a full year of base pay at involuntary separation—an amount equal
approximately to $18,000.

For more senior personnel, these payments are far less than the expected value of their future retire-
ment benefit (see Figure 1). There are current plans to propose legislation for enhanced voluntary career
separation pay for more senior personnel. If such a plan becomes available, the services would likely
make voluntary offers to individuals in the senior force who are in overege skills and occupations. The
number of individuals taking such offers is also currently uncertain, but that number would have a large
effect on the number of more junior personnel who would need to be involuntarily separated.

The first option, called junior separation, would be the likely scenario if senior separations are not
initiated. The second scenario assumes that career separation pay would be available and that voluntary
senior separations would occur.

The Manpower Model and Assumptions

We have developed a “behavioral inventory projection model” (Francisco 1991) (see Figure 2) for
each of the military services, which annually estimate their inventory of personnel given assumptions
about accessions and assumed voluntary and involuntary loss rates. The model tracks approximately 190
categories of personnel disaggregated by years of service, gender, race, education, and aptitude. Future
continuation rates can be established through linear or logistic regressions on historical data or set based
on simple averages of past rates.

Figure 2.—Schematic of model used for the analysis

i”

Estimated Required
continuation] end
rate | strength
Algorithm g>| Accession |,
for level
Current Loss ge] Expected na accession New
inventory model losses levels and || inventory
drawdown p>} Involuntary ~
losses losses
Policy and Rules for
economic involuntary;
lassumptions| losses

46



'This discussion is taken from Burt Bamow, Amy Chasanov, and Abhay Pande, Financial Incentives for Employer-
Provided Worker Training: A Review of Relevant Experience in the U.S. and Abroad. Urban Institute Policy Memorandum
for the U.S. Department of Labor, (Washington, DC: April 1990), 12-14.

'Dertouzos, op. cit., 69-70.
"Ibid., 87-88.

“MIT Commission on Industrial Productivity, “The US Semiconductor, Computer, and Copier Industries,” The Working
Papers of the MIT Commission on Indust ial Productivity. (Cambridge, MA: The MIT Press, 1989), 36-48.

'SCommission on the Skills of the American Workforce, 31-6.

®MIT Commission on Industrial Productivity, op. cit., 36-38, The Xerox Corporation, The Xerox Quest for Quality and the
National Quality Award.

"Xerox Corporate Quality Office, Competitive Benchmarking: What it is and What it Can do for You (Xerox Corporation,
1987). 2.

TMMIT Commission on Industrial Productivity, op. cit., 40.

Discussion at a question-and-answer panel at the Xerox Forum on the National Quality Award, held in Rochester, New
York, on January 15, 1991 (John Cooney).

*The other strategies are employee involvement, empowerment, management behavior change, recognition, and
communication.

* National Quality Communication and Promotion Office, Xerox Forum on the National Quality Award: Presentation
Slides, (Xerox Corporat’on: January 1991).

*Xerox Corporate Quality Office, op. cit., 2.
?USMG Quality Office, USMG: The Way We Work, (Xerox Corporation, 1988), 30-34.

*The figures in parenthesis indicate the number of courses in the winter quarter of 1991 offered by Development and
Manufacturing Technical Education and Managc ment Training.

*Xerox internal document, “Critical Skills Training Program V".

Richard A. Morano and Mark Britton, “Xerox Technicians Reach for the T.O.P.,” Human Resources Professional | (6),
(September/October 1989), 60-62.

*MIT Commission on Industrial Productivity, op. cit., 48.

Anthony Camevale, “America and the New Economy” (Alexandria, Virginia: American Society for Training and
Development, 1990).

165



sponsored by OSD and DVA and developed and fielded in an expeditious manner. DoD and DVA could
conduct joint workshops with in-service education personnel, supporting academics, and veterans
coordinators, counselors, and advisors, concentrating not just on administrative procedures but also on
specific ways to better satisfy human needs of servicemember-veterans through higher education. Both
the military services and DVA could arrange for a vigorous, coordinated outreach to servicemember/
veterans and their adult family members in the process of separating from the military and build on the
mandatory pre-separation briefing given by in-service education personnel. Both DoD and DVA would
need to program and budget the necessary personnel and funding resources to mount and sustain such an
education transition assistance effort. The higher education community, including the national educatior.
associations and colleges and universities, would need to work cooperatively with DoD and DVA to
make such an effort fruitful. Both the administration and the Congress must recognize and fully under-
stand the need for such an effort by providing pricrity support for its accomplishment.

Servicemembers Opportunity Colleges, if appropriately sponsored, have the capability of extending
the SOC model to meet some of the major transitioning needs. SOC Principles and Criteria currently
address veterans, but no organized outreach program or concrete, enforceable requirements currently
exist. For example, SOC could establish a consortium of “SOC transition colleges.” These post-
secondary institutions would be those willing tc take steps to make the new veteran’s college admissions
and enrollment easier, at the same time crediting nontraditional learning based on military schooling and
experience. In creating of a consortium of transition colleges SCC would be required to:

¢ Establish application procedures, standards, and criteria for membership aimed specifically at the
problems of transition;

Extract, in applications for membership to the consortium, promises of preferred treatment in
admissions, quick recognition of military schooling and experience for credit, liberal acceptance of
academic testing, transfer of coursework already completed, etc.; and

* Collect information relevant to the veteran, such as points of contact, admissions procedures and
policies, special provisions for veterans, telephone numbers, and addresses.

A SOC transition guide could be produced for use both in-service and post-service. This instrument,
and possibly accompanying brochures, would assist counselors and provide specific guidance to existing
servicemembers. In producing such a guide, SOC could:

* Outline what SOC transition colleges generally can do for servicemembers/veterans;

« Explain specifically how each SOC transition college serves veterans, summarizing specific policies
regarding veterans’ admission, award of credits based on non-traditional learning, etc.;

¢ Demonstrate the importance of documenting military schooling and experience and show how
credits awarded based on nontraditional education are blended into degree programs;

* Include instructions on how servicemembers, veterans, education counselors and veterans coor-
dinators and advisors can use the SOC transition guide; and

* Provide for periodic updating to maintain current information in the guide.

Liaison would be maintained with the academic community to ensure that new veterans receive the
treatment and care promised. SOC could be required to:

* Seek new colleges that will dedicate themselves to serving veterans;

* Monitor the performance of member colleges and produce reports to sponsoring agency as
requested;

* Promote acceptance of transition efforts through the academic associations that sponsor SOC;
+ Serve as a troubleshooter for servicemembers/veterans, counselors, and administrators; and

* Conduct workshops to instruct college personnel and/or military counselors.

Th eye
s :



curriculum and assessment process in order for companies, institutions, and/or organizations to develop
training and certification programs for the “robotic technician.” Other contracted activities include
working with companies such as Subaru-Isuzu, General Electric, Houston Metro Transit Authority,
National Tooling & Machining, and Cummings Engine Corporation. The NOCTI client list demon-
strates the interest in, and demand for, quality assessment vehicles by which individuals can be
evaluated as to competency/performance and recognized for appropriate achievement.

The National Occupational Competency Testing Institute is a not-for-profit organization composed of
a national consortium of states and governed by an elected board of trustees. NOCTI is dedicated to
developing and/or providing high-quality, industry-relevant competency assessment and evaluation
designs and believes they are central to improving the quality of the work force, productivity, and
professional certification programs.

Thus far, 69 SOCAT (job-ready level/entry level) and 61 TOCT (journeyman level) occupational
competency examinations have been developed, validated, and made available for national use. The
examination for each occupation contains two parts: a written test covering the theoretical concepts of
the occupation and a performance test that examines selected manipulative skills of the occupation.

The primary purpose of the NOCTI examinations is to determine an individual’s level of occupational
competence. The tests are not designed to measure teaching or instructional skills. Rather, they focus on
the technical knowledge, psychomotor skills, understanding, and analytical abilities normally required of
an individual for successful practice of the occupation.

The content of each of the NOCTI teacher examinations has been derived through careful occupa-
tional analysis involving committees of experienced incividuals from each specific occupation. The
selection of the special areas to be tested within occupations and the actual construction of test questions
has been based upon committee judgments relating to the frequency of the item’s use and its significance
in the real workplace. All examinations were field tested on appropriate populations (journeymen for the
TOCTs and t:chnical program completers for the SOCATs) and item analyses were performed. Modifi-
cations in each test were made based on the item analyses, and instruments were again subjected to field
tests to determine reliability (internal consistency) as well as to develop a set of norms. Readability
analysis was performed on each written test to ensure the reading level matched that required at the
appropriate level in the occupation.

The NOCTI teacher tests have been standardized by administering them to populations of mature
workers from specific crafts in the field. SOCATs have been administered throughout the country at the
secondary and postsecondary levels. The research completed shows that the tests in this series have high
reliability with low standard errors of measurements. The tests have been constructed to provide
subscores for selected categories within the occupations. This makes it possible for an individual to
identify specific areas of an occupation where >e/she may excel as well as possible areas of weakness.
This is especially valuable when a college or university contemplates granting college credit to an
individual upon the basis of demonstrated strengths in very discrete occupational specialties. Thorough
information regarding competency is also essential to employers as they seek specific job skills froma
potential employee.

Annually, as part of the internal quality contro] process of NOCTI, item analyses and reliability
measures are run. These accumulated data have demonstrated the time stability of the measures. For
TOCT, the population tested consists principally of persons from the trade who have met the minimum
occupational experience requirements for teaching in their respective states. For SOCAT, the population
tested consists for the most part of secondary and postsecondary vocational/technical program
completers, with the data base held separate for each level. Mean scores tend to show small variations
from year to year, providing additional evidence that TOCT measures reflect journeyman achieveinent
and SOCAT measures reflect job-ready/entry level achievement. Also, institutions, states, businesses,
and industries that have used these tools are satisfied with the results.

83 56



EEE —____
DOCUMENT RESUME

ED 351 535 CE 062 389

AUTHOR Stacey, Nevzer; And Others

TITLE Military Cutbacks and the Expanding Role of

Education: Proceedings of a Conference (May 1991).

INSTITUTION Office of Educational Research and Improvement (ED),
i Washington, DC.

REPORT NO OR-92-3513

PUB DATE Oct 92

NOTE 211p.

PUB TYPE Collected Works - Conference Proceedings (021)

EDRS PRICE MFO1/PCO9 Plus Postage.

DESCRIPTORS Adult Vocational Education; *Dislocated Workers;

Employment Opportunities; Higher Education; Job
Layoff; Job Training; Labor Market; Labor Supply;
*Labor Utilization; *Military Personnel; Noncollege
Bound Students; Occupational Mobility; Occupational
Tests; Outplacement Services (Employment) ;
Postsecondary Education; *Reduction in Force; *Skill
Obsolescence; *Structural Unemployment; Youth
Employment

ABSTRACT

These 10 papers were commissioned for a conference to
discuss such questions as: If the military has to restructure its
work force, how easily will it manage this transition? How well will
the affected employees do in the labor market? and How will the
defense industry and educational institutions respond to the need for
transition? After an introduction (Nevzer Stacey), the following
papers are provided: "Cutting Recruits: A Profile of the Newly
Unqualified" (David Boesel); "Crew Cuts: Effects of the Defense
Drawdown on Minorities" (Janice Laurence); “Impact of the Military
Drawdown on Youth Employment, Training, and Educational Opportunity"
(David Grissmer); "Educational Resources Available for Transition of
Servicemembers" (Clinton Anderson); "The Use of NOCTI (National
Occupational Competency Testing Institute) Examinations to Assist
Military Personnel Moving into the Civilian Work Force" (Scott
Whitener); "Competency Requirements of Managerial Jobs in the Public
and Private Sector: Similarities and Differences" (Joyce Shields,
Joanne Adams); "Lessons from the Past: Mitigating the Effects of
Military Cutbacks on Defense Workers" (Lois Lembo, Judith Philipson);
“Firm-based Education and Training of Workers: A Case Study of the
Xerox Corporation" (Burt Barnow, Amy Chasanov); "The Impact of
Military Drawdowns on Student Assistance Programs" (Meredith Ludwig,
Holly Hexter); and "Effect of Veterans Benefits on Veterans'
Education and Earnings" (Joshua Angrist). (CML)

ISHIHARA ITAA IAI IIIT IATA IAAI AAAI III ASI IIA AIS AISI IIA AIA IAAI AIS FAAAAA I

* Reproductions supplied by EDRS are the best that can be made *

* from the original document. *
FSI TTI IIS II TR IIS I IARI IOI IA TAT IT A ITO TTR IIR IIR III IA IIT IT ITI SII AI

- ——


Table 1.—Job sector demands

Public Sector

Private Sector

Greater functional integration;
fewer "hard" measures of
performance and productivity

Greater access to performance
feedback and specific measures

of productivity, i.e., profit, market
share, scrap waste

Less opportunity for individual,
unilateral change; more bureau-
cratic obstacles

Less formalization; more oppor-
tunity to establish goals and
plans, and to solve probleins

More standard operating proced-
ures and detailed policies and reg-
ulations; higher routinization

Fewer policies and standardized
procedures; less routinization;
greater need to make strategic
decisions; access to a greater
amount and variety of information

Less opportunity to symbolically
assert one's status

More access to symbols of power

Less frequency and experience with
making presentations due to
greater scrutiny from the public,
Congress, etc.

More frequency and experience
with making presentations due to
less scrutiny from outside "third"
parties

More rotation of personnel and
higher privacy concerns; less unity
due to a system of checks and
balances

Greater opportunity to build
group identity, pride, and team
spirit

Job Sector Competency Requirement Differences

In most competency clusters relevant to management jobs, differences between the public and private
sector were found in thc competency skill level demonstrated by managers. Table 2 presents a summary
of these differences (and similarities), and indicates at what managerial level the competency is most
important for superior performance. Definitions of the competencies appear in Appendix B.

112



rere

“Charles T. Clotfelter, “Undergraduate Enrollments in the 1980s” (Duke University and NBER: Draft paper for discussion,
1990).

‘Deborah J. Carter, “Racial and Ethnic Trends in College Participation: 1976 to 1988” (Washington, DC: ACE Research
Briefs, Volume 1, Number 3, 1990).

*Thomas J. DeLoughry, “Student Aid Would Increase in Budget Compromise, But 60 Colleges Could Be Cut From U.S.
Load Rolls” in Chronicle of Higher Education, October 31, 1990, Al6.

“Cecilia Ottinger, “College Graduates in the Labor Market: Today and the Future” (Washington, DC: ACE Research
Briefs, Volume 1, Number 5, 1990.

"William T. Grant Foundation, The Forgotten Half: Non-College Youth in America, An Interim Report (Washington, DC:
The William T. Grant Foundation Commission on Work, Family and Citizenship, January 1988).

»William T. Grant Foundation, op. cit.

*Advisory Committee on Student Financial Assistance, Ensuring Access: Challenges in Student Aid in the 1990s
(Washington, DC: Advisory Committee on Student Financial Assistance, July 1990).

*Mortenson and Wu, op. cit.

**Janet Hansen end Tanya Sharon, “Trends in Student Aid: 1980 to 1990” (Washington, DC: The College Board, August
1990).

Ross et al, op. cit.
TMHansen and Sharon, op. cit.
*Anderson and Kime, op. cit.

* Ibid.

187 Se


World War II

The U.S. mobilization to prepare for and fight World War II was the largest and most significant
dislocation of the economy in U.S. history. From a level of 300,000 in April 1940, the Armed Forces
grew forty-fold to a level of 12.1 million five years later.’ The mobilization of industry rivaled the
manpower mobilization in size and effectiveness; the output of war materiel was nothing short of
phenomenal. From the May 1940 fall of France until Japan’s surrender in August 1945, U.S. industry
met the materiel needs of its own vastly expanded Armed Forces and a substantial portion of Allied
needs as well. By today’s standards, the leveis of production were nearly inconceivable: 86,000 tanks,
296,000 airplanes, 15 million small arms, more than 40 billion bullets, and 64,000 landing craft. Even
Josef Stalin, never modest about claiming credit for Soviet triumphs and sacrifices in World War II,
gave the effort of U.S. industry a substantial share of the credit for defeating the Axis powers.

Table 2 shows the impact of the war on the U.S. workforce, Significantly, while the Armed Forces
expanded enormously, this expansion did not occur at the net expense of the civilian workforce until the
very end of the war. Instead, for the first three years of the buildup, the net expansion came from two
sources: a major reduction in unemployment (providing 7.3 million net additional employed workers
between April 1940 and September 1943) and an overall growth in the size of the labor force (account-
ing for 10.6 million new workers in the same period, primarily women entering the workforce for the
first time). This net addition of 17.9 million workers to the effective labor force permitted the mainte-
nance or expansion of civilian sectors, while building up the Armed Forces. (No sectors except “unem-
ployed” and “other” declined in total employment between the base period and September 1943.) This
expansion of the labor force was an immediate and growing concem of economic planners, businesses,
and labor unions, raising issues of massive growth in unemployment after the war’s end and a return to
the high-unemployment rates of the early 1930s. These outcomes were to be avoided at all costs.

Tabie 2.—Impact of World War II on national workforce

Apr Sept. Sept Sept. Sept Sept Apr July
194 194C 1941 1942 1943 1944 1945 1945

Total labor force, including Armed Forces... 55.1 56.8 58.8 6.1 65.7 66.8 66.3 67.5

Ammed Forces... 3 5S 18 46 97 117 121 121
Civilian labor fore 548 563 570 56.5 56.0 55.1 54.2 55.4
Unemployment 82 68477 9 6 5 10
Employment. 466 495 523 548 55.1 545 53.7 54.4

94 10.8 9.9 95 10.0 97 87 9.9
37.2 38.7 «6424 45.30 45.1 44.8 (45.0 44,5
42 47 6.5 88 109 102 101 9.2
6.2 6.6 1S 1A 7.2 7.0 69 6.9

al A 4 Ld 1.6 17 17 1.6
Other government... 3.9 40 42 43 40 4.0 4.0 4.0
‘Transportation and public utilities. 2.9 3.1 3.4 35 3.7 38 38 3.9
Constructio1 Lt 15 2.0 25 15 Moo 12

9 a 1.0 10 3 9 8 8
11.6 12.0 12.9 12.6 12.5 126 12.6 12.8
6.2 5.7 45 Al 28 34 41 41

Source: Prepared by U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, as cited in US,
Congres", Legislative Reference Service, op. eit, p. 211.

Instead of this dire scenario, the sudden demobilization at the end of World War II and return to the
labor force of the vast majority of the military forces in the year following the war sct off an unprece-
dented period of economic prosperity. Many fortuitous economic circumstances contributed to this
virtually painless transition from a “guns” to a “butter” economy, some of them more or less unique to

135 ;
E85



Conclusions

Xerox is consistently identified by researchers as an example of a firm that has regained its compe-
titive position in the world economy by changing its corporate philosophy. The MIT Commission cn.
Industrial Productivity stated that “Xerox should be studied by all American corporations wishing to
recover from perceived problems and the threat of Japanese competition.”* Anthony Carnevale of the
American Society for Training and Development cites Xerox as an example of a company that uses
training strategically and comprehensively to build its competitive advantage.”

Investing in its workers’ training is clearly not the only reason why Xerox has made such a dramatic
comeback, but human resource development is an essential component of Xerox’s drive for quality.
Moreover, it is not simply that Xerox invests more than most firms in its workers (about 3 to 4 percent
of revenue, compared to ASTD’s estimate of 1.4 percent for all U.S. firms), it is how Xero.: invests in
its workers that is important. Xerox’s training is an integral part of the firm’s business and meets the
criteria specified by ASTD for “high-leverage” training. In particular, training at Xerox:

« Is linked to business strategies;

* Supports competitive goals;

* Contributes to organizational growth;

¢ Has top management support and participation;

« Is integrated into line management;

+ Improves performance at the job level and the organizational level;

+ Is job-specific;

* Uses good instructional design to drive up training quality and contain costs;

* Uses measurements and evaluations consistent with organizational practice;

* Offers training professionals adequate compensation and good career tracks; and

* Is benchmarked against state-of-the-art programs in other organizations.

In addition to making training an integral part of its effort to achieve the highest possible quality, the
most significant feature of Xercx’s training program is the involvement of all levels of Xerox staff in the
training process. Senior management sets the tone by providing an adequate training budget and requir-
ing that personal and professional development be covered in the performance appraisal process. The
training staff must provide adequate courses or risk losing the funding that supports their positions. The
Curriculum Advisory Committees assure that training is up to date and meets employees’ needs. Thus,
Xerox employees and managers know that training is valued and will help them and the firm move
forward.

Although we were highly impressed with Xerox's training system, there is one aspect that might be
improved. Although Xerox spends more than most firms on training, how can the firm tell if it is
spending the “right” amount on training? Because Xerox is already a leader in training, benchmarking
against competitors will not aecessarily be useful in determining if it has reached the optimal level of
training. If too little training is provided, the firm will not achieve all its potential growth, but at some
point training takes away more time from production than it returns, Fine-tuning its training investment
may be the next challenge facing the firm.

Finally, although the Xerox Leadership Through Quality focus in general and its training program in
particular appear to have been very successful, other firms are likely to benefit by adapting their training
effort to their own particular needs. Xerox’s workforce is more technically oriented than most, and the
copier industry is noted for strong competition and rapid innovation. Other firms may find that more or
less training is preferred, and the mix of courses is also likely to vary. The key lesson to recognize is that

training is an investment and that the payoff may take years. Xerox managers believe, however, that the
investment is well worth it.

163 LAS



U.S. Department of Educction
Lamar Alexander
Secretary

Office of Educational Research and Improvement
Diane Ravitch
Assistant Secretary

Office of Research
Joseph C. Conaty
Acting Director

October 1992

Contact:
Nevzer Stacey
(202) 219-2111

Cover photo: Simulation inside Lockheed Aeronautical
Systems Company’s Weapon Systems Simulation
Center. Lockheed photo, by Eric Schulzinger, used
with permission.



Veterans who served on active duty for more than 180 continuous days between January 31, 1955,
and January 1, 1977, were eligible for post-Korean GI Bill benefits for up to 10 years after discharge?
Benefits under the post-Korean GI Bill consisted of monthly payments determined by the type of
instruction undertaken and the number of dependents. In 1978, for example, a veteran attending college
full time with no dependents would have been eligible for up to 45 monthly payments of $311. Indivi-
duals attending other types of institutions or attending less than full time were eligible for less. Benefit
recipients under the GI Bill could expect benefit levels to be periodically increased.

Veterans who entered the military after December 31, 1976, and before July 1, 1985 were eligible to
participate in the VEAP any time during active duty. VEAP participants made monthly contributions to
a VEAP fund for at least 12 consecutive months, and VEAP benefits are payable any time up to 10 years
after discharge from active duty. The maximum VEAP contribution was $2,700, which the government
matches 2 to 1 when benefits are paid out. Thus, the maximum government contribution under VEAP is
$5,400, payable in 36 monthly payments of $150 each. In contrast, the 36-month total payment under
the post-Korean GI Bil was $11,196 in 1978 for a veteran with no dependents.

Replacement of the GI Bill with the less generous VEAP appears to have contributed to a decline in
both the quantity and quality of recruits, To offset this decline, the individual services (beginning with
the Army) offered enhancements to basic VEAP benefits. These enhancements, known as “kickers”,
added lump sum amounts of up to $6,000 to the VEAP fund of recruits enlisting after January 1, 1979.4
In 1980, kicker amounts were further increased for recruits in EATP treatment groups. Lump sum
contributions to VEAP funds continued to be a part of the benefit package following the EATP, and an
$8,000 to $12,000 contribution for Army recruits was designated the Army College Fund in 1982
(Hogan, Smith, and Sylwester 1990).

For the purposes of this study, an important feature of the VEAP kickers is that eligibility was limited
to recruits with a high school diploma who fell into armed forces mental categories I-IIIa (Fernandez
1980).5 Thus, the VEAP kicker went a long way towards closing the gap between VEAP and Gi Bill
benefits in the early AVF, but only for veterans who were relatively educated upon entry to the service.
The differences in VEAP benefits for men with different schooling levels are used to identify TSLS
estimates in Section 4, below.

2. Data and Statistical Models

A simple two-equation model is used to estimate the effect of veterans benefits on education and
earnings. The effect of benefits on education is characterized by

ay Ej = XiBi + diy + 04 + ey,
where Ej; is the highest grade completed on the survey date, Xj is a vector of covariates, dj indicates

whether i has ever used veterans educational benefits, a; is an error component that may be correlated

with dj, and €}; is an error component orthogonal to Xj; and d;. The effect of education on earnings is
characterized by

(2) yi= XjO+ EP + Vj,
wherc yj; is log earnings, and 2. is the return to education. The error term, vj, is assumed to be
uncorrelated with Xj; and Ej.° The effect of veterans benefits on earnings is 7 = yp.

Without additional information, the effect of veterans benefits is not identified in equations (1) and
(2) because dj is correlated with 0. However, the SOV also reports information on completed years of
schooling when entering the military. Denote entry-level schooling by Eo;, and write

3) Eoi = XiBo + 0% + €0;,
so that, subtracting (3) from (1), we have

197

1S5



Table 2.—Job sector competency Requirements

Competency

Primary Level

Job Sector

Public Private

Goal and Action Management Cluster:
Efficiency Orientation
Proactivity
Pattern Recognition
Concern for Impact

Leadership Cluster:
Conceptualization
Oral Presentation
Self-Confidence
Logical Thinking

Human Resource Management Cluster:
Managing Group Processes
Use of Socialized Power
Accurate Self-Assessment (threshold)
Positive Regard (threshold)

Focusing on Others:
Perceptual Objectivity

3 designates that the competency distinguishes between superior
and average performance for the job sector

a designates the job sector with the higher demonstrated skill level

designates threshold competencies which are important for average

Entry-Mid
All

All
Mid-Exec

Mid-Exec
Mid-Exec
Mid-Exec
Entry-Mid

Mid-Exec
Entry-Mid
Entry
Mid

Mid-Exec

performance, but do not contribute to superior or excellent

performance.

Goal anc Action Manageiment Cluster

The competencies within the Goal and Action Management cluster are associated with the manager’s
responsibility to make things happen toward a goal or consistent with a plan. In order to do this, manag-
ers must assume certain risks, have a clear image of a desired outcome, and understand when and how to
take initiative. These managers are “movers and shakers,” entrepreneurs; they tend to view themselves as
players in a game. Events in life are viewed as opportunities to test themselves, take risks or accomplish
something unique. Competencies which contribute to this cluster are efficiency orientation, proactivity,

recognizing patterns, and concern with impacting others.

Managers in the private sector demonstrated more of each of the four competencies in the Goal and
Action Management Cluster. These differences may be explained by examining differences in their job

3R
an
3a
ar

OO

- an

oO ot
ow

wu a oO

demands. For example, efficiency orientation is the concern with setting and accomplishing specific

goals to improve performance, do things better. In the private sector, managers have access to and are



Table 8.—Number and percentage of active duty enlisted personnel by occupational categories
within race-ethnicity groups (as of June 30, 1990)

Race-ethnicity

Occupational White Black Hispanic Other! Total
category N % N % N % N % N %
White collar

Technical? 345,438 29.4 97,101 24.4 21,788 25.3. 17,860 =. 23.1 482,187 27.9
ClericaP 149,554 12.7 93,482 23.4 14,774 17.2 15,541 20.1 273,351 15.7
Blue collar

Craftsmen‘ 314,339 26.7 71,191 17.8 18,964 22.0 20,207 26.1 424,701 24.4

Service & supply 94,435 8.0 47,187 11.8 6,761 7.9 8141 10.5 156,524 9.0
General military

skills 199,463 17.0 70,860 17.7 16,234 18.9 11,914 15.4 298,471 17.2
including combat
Non-occupational> 71,324 6.1 20,092 5.0 7,298 8.5 3,545 4.6 102,259 59
Total 1,174,553 100 399,913 100 85,819 100 77,208 100 1,737,493 100

Source: Defense Manpower Data Center, Arlington, VA.
‘Other includes such categories as American Indians, Alaskan natives, Asians and Pacific Islanders.

Includes Electronic Equipment Repair, Communications and Intelligence, Health Services, and Other Technical and
Allied occupations.

‘Includes Functional Support and Administration occupations.
“Includes Electrical and Mechanical Equipment Repair and Craftsmen occupations.

SIncludes patients, prisoners, officer candidates and students, persons serving in undesignated or special occupations, and
those in basic or occupational training.

Because of the Test

Blacks and Hispanics are expected to be disproportionately hit by the drawdown because of the
anticipated tightening of entry, and specifically aptitude, requirements for military selection and job
classification. Enlistment standards, and particularly operational cut scores, typically vary with recruit-
ing conditions. When the supply is ample and the demand is low, standards are raised so as to maximize
quality. Minority groups do not score as well on the Armed Services Vocational Aptitude Battery
(ASVAB) used for these purposes. The ASVAB consists of 10 subtests which are configured into
various composites. Verbal and mathematics subtests are combined to yield the Armed Forces Quali-
fication Test (AFQT), which serves as a general measure of trainability and main entry hurdle. Other
subtests (¢.g., general science, electronics information, mechanical comprehension) are combined and
Usca 0 augment selection decisions as well as serve as the primary job assignment tool.

The only dividend for service personnel planners may be the increased quality of its recruits. The
fewer and fewer recruits will be expected to possess a high school diploma and to score at least within
Category III on the AFQT. For convenience and reporting purposes, AFQT scores are converted into
percentiles relative to the national youth population as follows:

30



Licensure/certification does not have to be a barrier to personnel attempting to move from the military

into a civilian occupation. With the proper preparation, the transition can be efficient, rewarding, and
smooth.

Summary

World events will require that the United States downsize its military forces. Many of those who will
be exiting the branches of the service possess excellent technical skills at a time when a shortage of
technically competency workers exists in the civilian work force. This paper presented a model of how
NOCTI occupational competency examinations can assess the civilian occupational competency of
military persons to provide evidence of their skills, a credential for movement directly into the work

force, an indication of the additional training necessary for occupational competency, or academic credit
at the college level.

Central to the model is the conviction that military personnel must have an accurate assessment of
their skills so that they may best present themselves to potential employers and secure a position com-
mensurate with their acquired competency. An appropriate placement means higher productivity, greater
job satisfaction, and improved opportunity for success.

Ten specific NOCTI test titles were matched to military occupational specialties to provide examples
of how the model could work. Types of institutions which could provide additional training to those
who need it as determined by testing as well as the training/competencies required by the military in the
10 occupational areas were cited. State and national licensure implications were also discussed, The
NOCTI network of more than 60 area test centers was reviewed, as was their potential for serving those
leaving the military. It was demonstrated that NOCTI tests provide an excellent means to help military
personnel move into the civilian work force.

90



4. Two-Stage Least Squares Estimates

Estimates of the effect of veterans benefits on grade increment in Tables 3 and 4 control for compo-
nents of variance in schooling levels that are correlated with benefit usage. However, if the error term in
the differenced equation is also correlated with benefit usage, additional information is neeccd to
identify the effect of veterans benefits. One source of additional information is the restricted eligibility
and reduced generosity of the VEAP. For example, VEAP benefits were available only to those veterans
who contributed to a VEAP fund while in the service. VEAP eligibility and benefit levels also differed
for different entry-level schooling groups. An identification strategy can therefore be developed that uses
the transition to VEAP as an instrument for the program-use dummy in equation (4) while controlling
for secular entry-level schooling and period-of-service effects.

The TSLS estimation procedure is easy to motivate in a differences-in-differences framework similar

to that used to estimate the grade increment equation in Table 2. Consider the following version of the
grade increment equation:

() VE; = Pid + iy + diy + &,

where pj is a 0-1 dummy variable that indicates Vietnam or early AVF service, and s; is a 0-1 dummy

variable that indicates having a high school diploma at entry. The differences-in-differences estimate of y
in this case is

(10) F= Lover - Ve10) - (Wor ~ Ve00)1/L411 - do) - or - doo)].

where Vey; is the average grade increment for men who served in period k and had entry-level schooling
amount j, and djj is the corresponding program-use rate.

The rationale for difference-in-differences estimation of equation (9) is the following. Men who
served in the Vietnam era were eligible for the GI Bill, while men who served in the early AVF period
were more likely to be eligible for VEAP. Because the VEAP was less generous than the GI Bill, and
VEAP eligibility was restricted to those who choose to contribute while on active duty, men who served
in the early AVF period were less likely to use any sort of veterans educational benefits. But the differ-
ence in program use by period of service is much larger for men without a high school diploma because
high school graduates were eligible for VEAP kickers that partially eliminated the difference between
VEAP and GI Bill benefit levels."” The difference-in-differences estimator attributes the change in grade

increment by period of service and entry-level schooling solely to entry-level schooling differences in
the effect of the VEAP on program use.

To develop a formal motivation for (10), first, note that the difference in the change in program use
rates by entry-level schooling is the coefficient on pjsj in the following equation:

ay di = Pida + SiWa + (pisi)K + Ei.

Similarly, the difference in the change in schooling by entry-level schooling and period of service is the
coefficient on pjs; in

(12) VEi = pide + SiVe + (Piso + &i.

The estimate of @ in equation (12) is the numerator of the difference-in-differences estimator, (10). The
estimate of in equation (11) is the denominator of the difference-in-differences estimator.

Equations (11) and (12) can be used to show that (10) is a TSLS estimator of the treatment effect, y,
where the instruments consist of dummy variables for period-of-service and entry-level schooling
effects, plus an interaction term for service in the Vietnam era and less than high school at entry. The
equivalence to TSLS is easy to see in this case because (11) and (12) are just TSLS reduced form
equations. Solving for the structurai coefficients from the reduced form produces the difference-in-

differences estimate, ovK. The interaction term, pjsj, is the instrument that identifies ‘y because it is
excluded from equation (9).

205

9n9
“uy



NOCTI Occupational Competency Examinations

Our conceptual model calls for an individual exiting the military to take an appropriate NOCTI
occupational competency examination. In this context, appropriate means an exam title that parallels the
individual's military occupational speciality (MOS) and reflects his or her probable skill level. A list of
NOCTI TOCTs is provided in Appendix A and SOCATSs in Appendix B.

NOCTI has katteries of occupational competency examinations at two different levels. TOCTs
determine journeyman level or experienced worker level competency and SOCATs assess job-ready or
entry level occupational competency. To aid in determining which test is appropriate, NOCTI has
developed for each test a scope which outlines the skills and knowledge required. The scope can simply
be evaluated in relation to a person’s background and a decision rendered concerning which test best fits.
A sampie scope is provided in Appendix C.

NOCTI examinations are unique in that they have two parts. Each exam involves a 200 item written
multiple choice test covering the technical and related knowledge required in the occupation as well as
an extensive performance test which calls on the test taker to demonstrate the skills and abilities neces-
sary for occupational competency. Although the written test is simple to administer, the performance test
must be given by trained examiners in a shop or laboratory under relatively standard controlled circum-
stances. Among the strongest of NOCTI’s attributes is its national network of over 60 area test centers
throughout the United States states and U.S. territories. This network has been in operation for over 20
years and can easily accommodate military personnel who wish to move into the civilian work force.
Specific test center information is provided in Appendix D. Test centers are located so that in most cases
military personnel would find one a reasonable distance from their bases of operation or homes.

Area test center coordinators are very experienced in advising potential test takers and extremely
knowledgeable about NOCTI test products. Since most NOCTI test takers come to a test center with
various levels of public or private training and different types of experience, the area test center coor-
dinator must assess the individuals background and determine which NOCTI test is appropriate. The
proposed process for the military would be no different. As a matter of fact, many military personnel
have already been through the NOCTI testing program. An area test center coordinator would merely be
matching militar; training/experience to the appropriate NOCTI test rather than attempting to match
civilian training/experience to a NOCTI test. In many cases, it may be easier to make a test determina-
tion for military personnel because their accumulated training/experience may be better documented in
their service records.

NOCTI publishes scopes for all of its TOCT and SOCAT tests. Any~ ae who wishes to examine what
is covered in a test can secure a scepe from an area test center coordinator or directly from NOCTI.
A test candidate is encouraged to review the scope to ensure he or she is comfortable with the skills

required in the test. Clearly this is the central part of the dialog between the area test center coordinator
and the test candidate.

TOCT tests are only distributed through area test centers, which closely oversee test administration.
This does not preclude establishing additional area test centers to accommodate the military on bases in
this county or throughout the world. The NOCTI consortium and governing board have expressed a
sincere desire to serve the military.

SOCATs are not distributed exclusively through area test centers but are provided directly to schools
or institutions. However, iocal agencies who use SOCATs are also responsible for their own test admin-
istration, which includes examiner training. NOCTI recommends that skilled persons from the occupa-
tional field being tested be employed to administer the performance portion of the SOCAT test. This has
particular advantages the military may wish to examine. Skilled persons from the occupation are often
also empl«yers who, after giving a test, might hire or teli other potential employers about the skills of
those taking the test, particularly the very skilled.

85



Table 9.—Aptitude composites: Mean percentile scores of the newly unqualified and 1980 civilians

aged 18 to 23 by sex
Newly unqualified 1980 civilians 18 to 23
Composites Males Females All Males Females All
Mechanical 49 25 47 51 26 39
Administrative 38 51 39 44 51 47
General 34 33 34 48 48 50
Electronics 37 29 36 53 41 47

Altogether, the newly unqualified have lower mean scores than civilian youth on the administrative,
general, and electronics composites, but a higher mean score on the mechanical composite. However,
these comparisons are strongly influenced by the gender composition of each group, because gender is
related to test scores. Males tend to have higher mechanical scores than females, for example. The newly
unqualified, as a group, score better than civilian youth on the mechanical composite, because most of
the unqualified are male. Controlling for gender, however, the newly unqualified males are still compe-
titive with civilian males in the market for mechanical occupations, in which males predominate. Their
mean percentile scores, 49 and 51, are roughly similar.

In the market for administrative jobs, wh’ch include many secretarial and clerical occupations, the
newly unqualified women are competitive with civilian fen:ales and with all civilians. In most other
comparisons of males with males, females with females, and all unqualified youth with all civilians,
those newly unqualified for service exhibit substantial aptitude deficits.

Table 10 shows the mean composite scores by race of the newly unqualified. Since the market for
jobs requiring these aptitudes tends to be non-racial, the racial subgroups of the newly unqualified are
compared with all civilian youth.

Table 10. — Aptitude composites: Mean percentile scores of the newly unqualified and 1980
civilians aged 18 to 23 by race of newly unqualified

Newly unqualified
Composites White Black Other 1980 civilians 18 to 23
Mechanical 51 30 32 39
Administrative 40 36 38 47
General 35 29 2 50
Electronics 37 30 32 47

Among the newly unqualified, only one racial group is competitive with civilian youth, on average,
and then only in one aptitude area. The militarily unqualified whites have substantial strength in mech-
anical aptitude. Their mean percentile score for this composite is 51, as compared with 39 for civilian
youth. As we have seen, gender composition accounts for much of this difference, but even controlling
for gender, whites among the newly unqualified would be competitive in mechanical occupations.
Otherwise, the scores of the militarily unqualified whites are markedly below those of the youth
population, and the scores of blacks and other minority members are lower still.

216



References

Angrist, J.D. (1990), “Lifetime Earnings and the Vietnam Era Draft Lottery: Evidence from Social Security Administrative
Records,” American Economic Review 80(3): 313-336.

Angrist, J.D., and Alan Krueger (1991), “Does Compulsory Schooling Affect Schooling and Earnings?,” forthcoming,
Quarterly Journal of Economics.

Card, David E. and Alan Krueger (1990), “Does School Quality Matter? Returns to Education and the Characteristics of
Public Schools in the United States,” Princeton Industrial Relations Section, mimeo, April 1990.

Fernandez, Richard L. (1980), “Issues in the Use of Post-Service Educational Benefits as Enlistment Incentives,” Santa
Monica: RAND Note N-1510-MRAL, July 1980.

(1982), “Enlistment Effects and Policy Implications of the Educational Assistance Test Program,” Santa Monica:
RAND Report R-2935-MRAL, September 1982.

Griliches, Zvi and W.M. Mason (1972), “Education, Income, and Ability,” Journal of Political Economy 80(Supplement):
$74-S103.

Heckman, James J., and Richard Robb (1985), “Altemative Methods of Evaluating the Impact of Interventions,” in
Longitudinal Analysis of Labor Market Data, New York: C-mbridge University press.

Hogan, Paul F., D. Alton Smith and Stephen Sylwester (1990), “The Army College Fund: Effects on Attrition, Reenlist-
ment and Cost,” in forthcoming Military Manpow-r Volume, Curtis Gilroy, ed., Alexandria: Army Research Institute.

Levitan, Sar A. and Joyce K. Zickler (1973), Swords Into Plowshares: Our GI Bill, Salt Lake City: Olympus Publishing
Company.

Magnum, Stephen L. and David E. Ball (1989), “The Transferability of Military-Provided Occupational Training in the
Post-Draft Era,” Industrial and Labor Relations Review 42(2) (January 1989): 230-245.

Manski, Charles F. and David Wise (1983), College Choice in America, Cambridge: Harvard University Press.

O'Neill, David and Sue Goetz Ross (1976) Voucher Funding of Training: A Study of the GI Bill, Arlington: Public
Research Institute, October 1976.

U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs (1989a), 987 Survey of Veterans, Washington DC: US GPO, July 1989.
__(1989b): Trend Data: 1964-88, Washington DC: US GPO, March 1989.

__ (1989c), Annual Report 1986, Washington DC: US GPO, July 1989.

___ (1990), Federal Benefits for Veterans and Dependents, Washington DC: US GPO, January 1990.

U.S. Veterans Administration (1978), Department of Veterans Benefits, Handbook for Veterans Benefits Counselors,
Washington: US GPO, February 1978.

(1988), Office of Information Management and Statistics (713), Veterans Benefits Under Current Educational
Programs Fiscal Year 1987, Washington DC.

au 209
BEST COPY AVAILABLE



of forces in the Persian Gulf area. This scenario would most likely be handled by reducing normal
recruitment and reenlistment quotas, reducing numbers of officers coming onto active duty from Reserve
Officers’ Training Corps (ROTC) units, retirements, and voluntary early-out separations, and enhancing
quality control military personel management programs executed by the various services. No RIF may
be needed to implement this type of build-down. But it would require the DoD Authorization and
Appropriations Acts to maintain manpower ceilings that will accommodate this scenario. Based on the
DoD Fiscal Year 1991 Authorization and Appropriations Acts, this scenario has apparently been adopted
for this year. The 1991 DoD Authorization Act provided for a reduction of 100,000 active duty service-
members but contained an escape clause permitting DoD to exceed authorized strength levels by up to 1
percent in 1991. This, in effect, reduces the personnel cuts from 100,000 to 80,000. This Act, however,
does order a reduction of 463,405 in active duty strength over 5 years, leaving a military of about 1.6
million active duty members. (Army Times November 5 1990, 3)

The second scenario projects a moderate reduction of forces such as that proposed in committees of
both the House of Representatives and the Senate prior to the deployment of U.S. forces to the Persian
Gulf area. This reduction would involve first-year manpower cuts of between 100,000 and 130,000
servicemembers. As fiscal year cuts are projected above the 100,000 threshold, RIF actions seem un-
avoidable. If manpower cuts can be kept below the 100,000 mark, RIF actions may be avoided alto-
gether or applied very minimally. (See Table 8 for a summary of congressional proposals as of August
1990. Even though the 1991 DoD Authorization and Appropriations Acts have been finalized at 100,000
active duty personnel reductions with an escape clause, these proposals give insight into congressional
thinking.) Both the House and Senate Armed Services Committees have directed the military services
that, in order to meet reduced manpower ceilings, they should (a) minimize involuntary separations of
servicemembers with between 6 and 20 years of service, (b) limit recruiting, (c) cut the number of
retirement-eligible personnel still on active duty, and (d) reduce first-term reenlistment rates (Navy
Times August 6 1990, 3).

The third scenario would entail deep and swift manpower cuts. Reportedly the Senate Armed Services
Committee has indicated that a reduction of -.5,000 active duty servicemembers is needed to cut the
federal budget by $13 billion (Navy Times August 6 1990, 3). If agreements could be negotiated to
drastically reduce U.S. troop strength in Germany and Korea and the situation in the Persian Gulf could
be resolved peacefully, this third scenario might well come into play. The Active Army could perhaps be
reduced from over 764,000 in 1989 to approximately 500,000, with the other services sustaining some-
what less drastic cuts. Major RIF actions would be unavoidable. Full-blown transition management
would be needed to insure military careerists caught in a RIF were given appropriate opportunities to
adjust to the civilian sector by finding jobs, housing, medical care, and the community support needed
for sustaining the livelihood of themselves and their families.

Whether any of these scenarios or something entirely different actually occurs, transition is generally
less painful if the individual servicemember has the skills and knowledge needed to obtain a civilian job
in a career field in which he or she is comfortable and has the ability to succeed up a chosen career
ladder, even though not in the military. Historically, the federal government has recognized the worth of
educational opportunities by authorizing a variety of GI Bill educational benefits targeted toward helping
veterans prepare themselves educationally for working and living as productive citizens of the United
States. In addition, educational opportunities are available for servicemembers while on active duty.
Postsecondary education credentials (e.g., the associate, bachelor’s, master’s and doctor’s degrees) are
recognized both within the military and in the civilian sector as important personal achievements and
often serve as keys to job selection and training, promotion, and even retention. Educational credentials
help servicemembers and veterans to be competitive in the job markets and career fields, as well as
preparing them to do actual work inherent in their specific jobs.

55

on
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Military servicemembers and their families are involved in pursuing postsecondary education in
substantial and numerous ways. Servicemembers use tuition assistance or other aid to enroll in courses
or programs of study on or near their installations. Their families can participate as well, although they
are ineligible for tuition assistance. The services also support a range of nontraditional education pro-
grams. Under the aegis of the Defense Activity for Nontraditional Education Support (DANTES),
personnel can enroll in independent study or earn college credit for service school courses and training
through external evaluations or standardized examinations.

In FY 1989, servicemembers enrolled in 513,397 undergraduate courses and 55,460 graduate courses
with the use of military-sponsored tuition assistance. Servicemembers using veterans’ benefits for in-
service education accounted for 39,000 undergraduate and graduate enrollments. In addition, according
to DANTES, 3,569 enrollments in independent study were reported. The 100,000 credit examinations
administered each year, as well as the roughly 400,000 semester hours per year earned by military
personnel that may be transferable to a college program, must be added to this picture to convey the full
scope of postsecondary study.

Servicemembers have several options for pursuing degree programs. Air Force personnel may enroll
in the Community College of the Air Force, an accredited institution that offers programs leading to an
associate degree in applied science. Army and Navy personnel may enroll in associate or baccalaureate
degree programs provided through the Servicemembers Opportunity Colleges (SOC), a network of 735
accredited civilian institutions that are pledged to facilitate admissions and award of credit for partici-
pating military personnel. Currently being piloted is a new joint admissions program with members of
SOC, called ConAP (Concurrent Admissions Program). This program permits new recruits to establish
continuing information relationships with either a Z- or 4-year institution with the idea of becoming a
student at the institution after service is completed.

In FY 1989, a total of 27,158 postsecondary degrees were awarded to servicemembers; 15,454 were
associate degrees, 5,799 were baccalaureate degrees, and 5,874 were graduate degrees.

Veterans in Postsecondary Education

Veterans in postsecondary education have relied on traditional assistance programs as well as
veterans benefits. Relatively few have yet used the Montgomery GI Bill benefits; however,
usage should increase as early separatees and reservists leave. This has been anticipated in the
projected 546,300 using benefits by the year 1995.

In 1989, the latest year for which data are available, about 200,000 veterans used Veterans Educa-
tional Assistance Program (VEAP) or Montgomery GI Bill (MGIB) benefits for education or training.
Data from the Department of Veterans Affairs (DVA) shows that almost all of those—roughly
189,000—were enrolled in postsecondary institutions (see Table 4). VEAP-ers were more likely to be
enrolled in four-year than in two-year institutions; according to our estimates, veterans using MGIB-
active duty benefits were distributed evenly among both two-year and four-year institutions.

176
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Mis. Nancy Sentiey
Associate Oean ot Testing
Callege of OuPage

22nd St. and Lambert Rosa
Glen Ellyn, ILLINOIS 60.37
Phone: (708) 853-2800

Cr. Max Eddy, Professor
371 Knay Hatt

Purdue Unwersity
Lalayatte. INDIANA 47907
Phone: (317) 4941097

Or. Donald J. McKay, Assoc. Prot,

Deparment of industrial Education
and Technology

106 indusirial Education Building Il

lowa State University

‘Ames, IOWA 50010

Phone: ($15) 294-2082

Or. Frad J. Sth

Vocational /Tecnnical Education Dept.
Pittshurg State University

Pittsburg, KANSAS 68762

Phone: (316) 231-7000

Or. Teresa Bowling

Oirector of Testing

Deparment af Vocational Education
2029 Capital Plaza Tower

Franktort, KENTUCKY 40601
Phone: ($02) 564-2764

Mr. Larry Rabalais

Postsecondary Vocational Education
Office of Vocations: Education
Louisiana Capt. of Education

628 North 4th Street, P.O, Box 94064
Baton Rouge, LOUISIANA 70804-9064
Phone: (804) 342.3549

Me, Allan Chrenka, Olrector
Michigan Occupations Competency
Assecament Center - Bishop 610
Ferrie State University

Big Rapids, MICHIGAN 49307
Phone: (616) 502-2857

Me ava 2. Prier
Inqustrial /Tecnmcai Stugies
University of Minnesota
Duluth, MINNESOTA $5812
Phone: (218} 726-8116

Or. Bruce Stirewalt. Head

Vacational Education and
Technology Cepartment

Orawer NU

Mississippi State University

Mississippi State, MISSISSIPPI 39762

Phone: (601) 325-2281

Or. Bill Bums.

Dept. industrial/Vocational Education
University of Southam Mississippi
Hattiesburg, MISSISSIPPI 39401
Phone: (601) 266-4446

Industrial Edueation

105 London Halt

University of Missouri
Columbia, MISSOURI 65211
Phone: (314) 882.9695

Me. Jerry Franson,
Education Cepartment
Northem Montana College
Havre, MONTANA $9501
Phone: (406) 265-3738

Or. Lyle Colscen, Director

Canter for Vocational /Technical
Education

Keamey State College

Kearney, NEBRASKA 68847

Phone: (908) 234-8464

Me, Bob Weiser, Project Director
Research Education Planning Center
College of Education, Room 201
University of Nevada at Reno
Rene, NEVADA 89ss7

Phone: (702) 784-4621

Or. Wiliam H, Annis, Professor
Cepartment of VITAE

James Hail
University of New Hampshire
Ourham, NEW HAMPSHIRE 03824
Phone: (803) 862-1745

98

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Or. William Alexander
Trenton State Callege
Hillwood Lakes

CN 4700

Trenton, NEW JERSEY 08650
Phone: (609) 771-2528

Or. Douglas L. Pickia

Coordinator of industrial Education
Station 11

Eastern New Mexico University
Portales, NEW MEXICO 88130
Phone: (S05) $62-2822

Or. John Popovich

Vocational Teacher Education Program
State University College at Buttaio
1300 Elmwood Avenue, Upton 314
Buffalo, NEW YORK 14222

Phone: (716) 878-5504

Or. Eugene Eskridge, Program Director
Canter for Vocational Teacher Educ.
Room 108, Townsend Harris Hail

City College

Convent Avenue at West 138th St.

New York, NEW YORK 10031

Phone: (212) 650-7000

Or. Robert Pyle

Oept. of Technology Education

209 Price Hail

‘School of Techwology

North Carolina A & T State University
Greensboro, NORTH CAROUNA 27411
Phone: (919) 334-7931

Mr, Rich Hauck

Counseling Canter

North Dakota Schoo! of Science

N. 6th Street, Horton Halt
Wahpeton, NORTH OAKOTA 58076
Phone: (701) 571-2243

Me. Pochard A Price
Vocational Technical Education
‘The Chia State University

29 W. Woodruff - 017 Ramesyer
Columbus, OHIO 43210
Phone: (614) 292-s0a7



Appendix B

Military Support of Education if

Financial aid provided by military and veterans benefits for postsecondary education was expected to
total about $1 billion in fiscal year 1990.78 This sum represents about 6 percent of the $19.9 billion in
federal aid and about 4 percent of the $27.2 billion in aid from all sources awarded to postsecondary
students. During the 1980s, while total federal support for student financial aid remained level in con-
stant dollars, veterans’ benefits declined sharply while military support rose by one-third. (Veterans’

education benefits dropped as the size of the cohorts eligible for old GI Bill and Vietnam-era benefits
dwindled.)

Table B-1.—Military and veterans support to postsecondary students, FY 1990 (in millions)

DoD ROTC scholarships $ 183.9
Health scholarships 87.4
Tuition assistance 100.0
Subtotal DoD 371.3
Veterans Old GI Bill 167.0
Vocational rehabilitation 93.5
VEAP 153.7
New GI Bill-active duty 218.7
New GI Bill-reserve 108.0
Subtotal Veterans 741.0
Total, DoD and Veterans $1,112.0 |

Source: The Washington Office of the College Board, unpublished data.

Tuition Assistance (TA)

The rise in military support of voluntary education in the last decade has been largely attributable to
the services’ increased emphasis on tuition assistance, which rose from $32 million in 1981 to $100
million in 1990. These totals of appropriated funds, however, do not reveal how much the individual
services, which control their own tuition assistance programs, actually spend in a given fiscal year.
Tuition assistance is but one component of the education budget within the services, and when education
budgets must be shaved, as has happened in the last several years, tuition assistance has been targeted. In

a much publicized case involving the Army in 1988, for instance, due to reallocations, Army installa-
tions faced a shortfall in TA before the end of the fiscal year.

As Anderson and Kime note, tuition assistance has been the military’s primary vehicle for support of
off-duty continuing education for servicemembers. Each service defines the purpose of its TA program

slightly differently, but in general TA is perceived as supporting recruitment, retention, and professional
development of military personnel.”?



Table 3.—High school graduates

Year Total
Actual 1987-88 2,801,494
Estimated 1988-89 2,819.933
Forecasted 1989-90 2,628,000
1990-91 2,522,000
1991-92 2,517,000
1992-93 2,518,000
1993-94 2,512,000

Note: In general, actual data comes from the Common Core of Data surveys, U.S. Department of Education, NCES;
estimates come from fall sample surveys to obtain carly estimates; forcasts of public and private high school graduates are
computed separately. See the technical notes for methodology, “Targeted Forecast,” September 1990, NCES 90-691.

If the goals of the reduced accessions are met, the number of “newly unqualified” would exceed the
expected decreases in traditional age enrollments of high school graduates. Additional research to
answer questions comparing these potential students with their peers currently in postsecondary educa-
tion would be helpful and advisable. Using the complete file of data from the National Postsecondary
Student Aid Study (NPSAS), a comparison of the characteristics and proportions of similar groups of
current students to the “newly unqualified” would aid any estimates of the impact on current student
assistance programs. This data was not available at the time of the development of this paper. However,
desiring to estimate the dollar impact of enrolling these potential students with traditional student assistance
program resources, we used analyses of student aid use by the American Council on Education (ACE).

Of the annual 56,000 (again estimated) “newly unqualified,” we estimated that roughly one-third
would be eligible high school graduates who would be prepared and have the inclination to go directly
on to college. We further assume that these students would be dependent students and that they would
come primarily from families with incomes under $20,000.

According to ACE, the typical dependent student at two-year institutions receives an average total
federal aid award of $1,683 and at public four-year institutions, $2,513. Dependent students at indepen-
dent institutions receive a total of $3,131 and students at proprietary institutions a total of $3,127.!4

If 19,000 new aid recipients are added each year to the current rolls, the impact could total an addi-
tional $46 million to $48 million expended for dependent students. (Here we are assuming that the
proportion of “newly unqualified” attending higher education will distribute themselves in a one-third/
one-third/one-third mix unless programs are directed to increase the number matriculating at four-year
institutions. That is, one-third will attend four-year institutions; one-third attend two-year institutions;
and one-third attend proprietary institutions.)

Current Postsecondary Participation
by Military Personnel and Veterans

The military services organize voluntary education opportunities through a network of education
centers on more than 475 military installations worldwide. Each installation has an education program
run by a civilian education service officer (ESO) and usually staffed by an education counselor. Aca-

demic institutions supply registrars or other personn:l to assist in academic advising, scheduling and
registration.

175,

176



identified and protected throughout the resource management chain within the military services, with
appropriate audits to ensure operational compliance.

3. Education as Solely a Civilian Sector Responsibility

In some ways the military would like to assume the role of an unenlightened employer who chooses
and retains only those employees capable of doing the job. As an employer, the military would be free to
set stringent criteria for promotion and re-enlistment, with the full expectations that its employees would
meet those requirements on their own (i.e., with little or no effort on the part of the employer). Some
argue that education is not the responsibility of the military but instead belongs to the states and locali-
ties in which servicemembers are stationed. They contend that servicemembers and their family mem-
bers should be counted along with other residents of those communities. Except in overseas commands,
their education needs should be reflected in state education plans, with the federal government providing
assistance to the states to ensure military employees have access to needed educational programs and
services. In some respects, this philosophy has been partially put into practice. For example, most states
give in-state tuition rates for state and community colleges to all servicemembers stationed in that state
regardless as their home of record. Some states also extend this benefit to adult family members sta-
tioned in those states. The State of North Carolina has traditionally included soldiers and their family
members at Fort Bragg in its state education plan. The Fort Bragg education program has benefited
greatly over the years because of the planning and close working relationships forged between the
military and the state and local education authorities. At other locations attempts at similar efforts have
failed. To their credit, however, military leadership generally has taken the position that it must “care for
its own” and not rely solely on outside agencies to provide education programs and services. Conse-
quently, the military has allocated considerable personnel and fiscal resources to in-service education,
as previously shown in this paper.

4. Use of Educational Incentives in Military Recruitment

Education incentives have been used successfully since 1980 to attract sufficient numbers of “high
quality” recruits into the military services. The Department of Veterans Affairs has responsibility for
administering these programs. Nevertheless, the military services, as responsible employers, have a stake
in ensuring that educational opportunities promised through programs like the GI Bill are obtainable by
servicemembers and veterans. Just what is that stake and what measures should DoD take to “care for
their own’? Many servicemembers, along with their parents and families, believe that the military will
help them achieve their educational goals and mature into responsible citizens. This is particularly true
among minorities. But often they find either that in-service education opportunities are limited by a lack
of suitable education programs and services or that military duty requirements limit potential participa-
tion in such programs. Career-minded servicemembers have often placed their military duty performance
above participation in college programs. If involved in a RIF action, these servicemembers may feel
cheated educationally. In the transitioning process, a strong advocate for veterans’ education must assert
inself to ensure follow-through on recruitment promises and servicemembers’ expectations. Without such
an advocate, the forces of inertia may prevail. On occasion, however, the military has been accused of
“puffery” in its recruitment promises. DVA has been accused of not being an “advocate for the veteran.”
The bureaucrats within the military and DVA may even hope that servicemembers and veterans do not
use their in-service education opportunities or their education entitlements so they can use that funding
for other purposes. Ethically, however, it seems that both the military and DVA have education obliga-
tions to fulfill. Their performance in fulfilling those obligations should be closely monitored.

5. Fair Treatment of Servicemembers Involved in a Reduction-In-Force
What constitutes fair treatment of career-minded servicemembers being involuntarily separated from

the military through no fault of their own? What would cause them to feel that their nation is “grateful”
for their service and dedication? These are questions posed by the nation’s leadership whether in

76

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rs



Stephen L. Mangum and David E. Ball, “The Transferability of Military-Provided Occupational Training in the Post-
Draft Era, Industrial and Labor Relations Review 42 (2), (January 1989).

Connie J. Schroyer, Linda A. Hansen, Pasquale A, Lerro, and Michael E. Benedict, Analysis of the 1990 ARI Survey of

Employers, Working Paper MPPRG 90.05. (Alexandria, VA: U.S. Army Research Institute for the Behavioral and Social
Sciences, September 1990).

“See Eitelberg, War or Welfare.

36



Notes

'Rick Atkinson, “Gulf Crisis Poses Dilemma for U.S. Military Facing Cutbacks” (Washington, DC: The Washington Post,
December 23, 1990).

"Most U.S. Troops in Gulf Joined Army for College” in The Washington Post, November 22, 1990, Al, A48.

‘Janice Laurence, “Crew Cuts: Effects of the Defense Drawdown on Minorities: (Washington, DC: Paper prepared for
Department of Education symposium on education and restructuring the military, May 16, 1991).

“Andrew Kolstad, The Educational Enrollments of Military Veterans: Evidence from a Longitudinal Study (Washington,
DC: National Center for Education Statistics, February 1986).

‘Melvin Kimmel, Glenda Y. Nogami, Timothy W. Elig, and Paul A. Gade, “The One-Term Soldier: A Valuable Army
Resource,” Soldier Support Journal, October-December 1986, 4-7 and ur.published tabulations.

“Department of Defense, Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense (Force Management and Personnel), Population
Representation in the Military Services, Fiscal Year 1989 (OASD, July 1990).

*Clinton Anderson, “Educational Resources Available for Transition of Servicemembers” (Washington, DC: Paper
prepared for Department of Education sympositim 01 education and restructuring the military, May 16, 1991).

“Clinton Anderson and Steve Kime, Adult Higher Education and the Military: Blending Traditional and Nontraditional
Education (Washington, DC: American Association of State Colleges and Universities, 1990).

*Laurence, op. cit.

"Dave Bocsel, “Cutting Recruits: A Profile of the Newly Unqualified” (Washington, DC: Paper prepared for Department
of Education symposium on education and rest.cturing the military, May 16, 1991).

“Ibid.
"'Depariment of Defense, op. cit.

13. Ibid.

“Laurent Ross, Patricia Smith, and Diane Hampton, “Federal Student Aid Packages, Academic Year 1986-87”
(Washington, DC: American Council on Education, Office of Legislative Analysis, July 1990).

'SDavid Stewart et al., Problems Faced by Military Personnel in Pursuing Higher Education Programs: A Study with
Recommendations (Pensacola, FL: Defense Activity for Non-Traditional Education Support, November 1989).

‘Keith Bradshez, “R.O.T.C. Doesn't Want You" (New York: The New York Times Education Life, January 6, 1991).

"Thomas G. Mortenson and Zhijun Wu, High School Graduation and College Participation of Young Adults by Family
Income Backgrounds 1970 to 1989 (American College Testing Student Financial Aid Research Report Series,
September 1990).

186

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Educational Resources Available
for Transition of Servicemembers

Clinton L. Anderson

Introduction

The transition of servicemembers from active duty to civilian life is an ongoing process involving
thousands of soldiers, sailors, airmen, and marines routinely each year. Since the post-Vietnam era
build-down of the mid-1970s, these separations from military service can generally be characterized as
“normal attritions” through such personnel actions as retirements, completions of enlistment commit-
ments, and discharges for hardship or for the good of the service. Servicemembers complete their first or
second term of service either as enlisted members in the lower ranks or junior officers and revert back
into the civilian sector. Some join the reserve component forces either as part of fulfilling their enlist-
ment contracts or simply because they want to continue their military experience but on a part-time
basis. Their primary jobs, however, are expected to be provided through the civilian sector. Some
leaving active military service will use their veterans’ preference benefit and become Department of
Defense (DoD) employees or take other jobs in civil service. Just as in entering the active military service,
most servicemembers leave voluntarily or through mutual consent of themselves and the military.

On the other hand, “reduction-in-force” (RIF) means that for purpose of meeting manpower con-
straints, servicemembers are removed from active military service against the will of both the individual
involved and the military service. In other words, the employer must lay off workers no longer needed to
accomplish the organization’s job requirements, even to the point of breaking commitments cither legal
or moral to those workers. The results of the 1990 reader survey conducted by the Army Times, Air
Forces Times, and Navy Times show that servicemembers are “deeply worried that looming budget cuts
will hurt their military careers” and many feel that they will not be treated fairly if separated involun-

tarily from the military. Vice Admiral Mike Boorda, the Chief of Naval Personnel, responded to the
survey:

It is not surprising that people in the military are very concerned. Everywhere they turn, they
see news reports—some accurate, some sensationalized—that talk about cuts in the defense

budget and cuts in personnel. How would they not be worried? (Army Times 17 September
1990)

As with other employers, the military services hope to meet most manpower constraints through
norma! attrition, minimizing the RIF whenever and wherever possible. But many servicemembers have
little trust iv. the leadership of the United States to protect “people programs” within the military ser-

vices, An Army Times quote from an unnamed respondent seems to capture the deep sense of impending
betrayal:

Note: The author is senior education consultant with the American Association of State Colleges and Universities and with
the American Council on Education. The views expressed in this paper are those of the author and do not necessarily
reflect those of any agency past or present with which he has been associated.

49

ma
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High-trainability competencies can be learned/developed by using training methods that are primarily
of shorter duration and primarily knowledge-based. This means that “what,” “why,” and “how to” can be
effectively conveyed through lectures, videos, and books in a structured format. Moderate-trainability
competencies require a certain amount of relearning, which by definition requires the active involvement
of the individual in discussions, role-play, 41d self-awareness activities. Low-trainability competencies
require long-term training/development processes that include observational, modeling, practice, and
reinforcement activities. These require very active involvement of the individual in the relevant applied
setting or context. Associated with each training method are steps which must be taken to acquire and
integrate the competency. These steps are discussed in the following paragraphs.

Tabie 6.—Training methods

Trainability Method Example Excercises
High Formal Classroom Lectures, Video, ;
Knowledge Acquisition a
High/ Moderate Self-Awareness Questionnaires, Self- i
Observation :
Moderate Formal Hands-On Case Studies, Work- 3
Related Exercises '
Low Coaching / Mentoring Observation, Discussion, }}
OjT HT
Low Career Pathing Job Assignments, Men- LY
toring, Self-Awareness, ‘
Knowledge Acquisition |

Step 4. Implement Competency Acquisition

To acquire competency to the point at which it will substantively enhance job performance, each of
the learning stages in Table 7 must be completed at some time. All five stages can be completed during
the “formal” training process (required for low-trainability competencies) or afterward, for training/
developing high-trainability competencies.

These five essential stages reflect the basic human learning process when cognitive and voluntary
action components are involved. Many training programs do not allocate sufficient time to the last two

or three stages, which prevents them from generalizing successfully the applied context (especially when
the focus is a low-trainability competency).

121 127



Table 7.—Active duty enlisted personnel skills and specialties as of December 1989

Skill/specialty Number
Electrical/mechanical equipment repair 364,563
Combat 298,124
Administration & clerks 279,527
Electronic equipment repair 177,846
Communications & intelligence 172,417
Supply & service handlers 162,725
Health care specialists 99,542
Craftsmen 70,555
Other technical 41,929
Other 129,755
Total 1,796,983

Source: Armed Forces Information Services, Defense 90 Almanac, 24.

Possible Scenarios for a Military Build-Down

Although the list of possible scenarios is virtually endless, this effort will concentrate on several that
may accommodate the national interests of the United States during the decade of the 1990s. The
underlying assumption is that the Cold War is over, the Soviet Union is no longer the “Evil Empire”
locked in a life-death ideological struggle with the West, and the United States no longer requires
massive strategic and tactical military systems aimed at deterrence and massive retaliation by land, sea,
and air. Using 1989 troop-stationing data, many of the 344,000 American troops located in western and
southern Europe based on Cold War plans and strategic agreements may no longer be needed.

The largest potential troop cut will probably come from the 254,000 stationed in the old Federal
Republic of Germany and West Berlin. If the potential threat in Korea remains relatively dormant, troop
reductions will also occur among the 146,000 servicemembers stationed in and around East Asia and the
Pacific Rim (approximately 49,000 in Japan and Okinawa; 46,000 in Korea, as of March 31, 1989). Yet,
based on the 1989 and 1990 military troop requirements in Panama and the Persian Gulf/Saudia Arabia
and perhaps a new “World Order,” rapidly depioyable forces from all services in considerable strengths
wil! continue to be needed on a regional basis during the 1990s. For the Army, a mix of both heavy and
light combat forces appear to be needed (e.g., Armor, Infantry, Field Artillery, Light Infantry, Air
Defense, Engineers, and Special Forces, along with their combat support and combat service support). If
the lessons regarding the 1990 call-up of sciective reserve forces are leamed, perhaps the reserve com-
ponent forces will be increasingly used and relied upon for rapid mobilization and deployment to meet
regional military requirements by U.S. military forces.

With the assumptions ouilined above, the three following scenarios are presented.

The first scenario envisions a gradual reduction of active duty military forces, principally within the
Army, contingent upon troop agreements with the Soviet Union and allies in East Asia, and deployment



All interactions of these timing variables are included because a potentially important covariate that is not on the tape is
the time since discharge from the military.

‘In this and subsequent tables, Vietnam: era service is coded directly from the SOV questionnaire and not from the VA
Tecode.

‘Regressors other than the program-use dummy in cquation (4), and grade at entry and grade increment in equation (5),
are not allowed to vary by race.

'[n present discounted value terms, VEAP benefit levels were roughly 20 to 30 percent of GI Bill benefit levels fora
veteran with no dependents. But VEAP with a 3,000 dollar kicker was around half as generous as the GI Bill, and VEAP
with a 6,000 dollar kicker plus a 3,000 dollar “combat arms” bonus gave a benefit level nearly comparable: te GI Bill
benefit levels (Fernandez 1980, Tables 3 and 5).

“To increase the number of early AVF veterans, the sample underlying this table includes 25-29 year old and female
veterans as well as members of the sample used in Table 1.

“Earnings equation results from the expanded sample até similar to those in the selected sample used in Table 3. The
return to grade at entry is .090 (.011) in the expanded sample, and the return to grade increment is .036 (.009). The
reduced form benefits effect is 0.043 (0.029).



The descriptions of the wartime experiences indicate that over time, help for dying defense companies
has remained the problem of federal, state, and particularly local authorities, who have been forced to
develop a “game plan” to save their communities and residents as a crisis evolved. These governmental
efforts are often aided by programs established by the company where the layoffs occurred.

The following subsections describe the impact of and recovery from defense or aerospace plant
layoffs in three communities: Wichita, Kansas; Huntsville, Alabama; and Taunton, Massachusetts. All
three of the massive layoffs occurred during the defense and NASA cutbacks of the 1970s. In each
instance, government planning and funding assisted the community with short-term adjustment and
long-term recovery. In addition, specialized programs, including job counseling and short-term on-the-
job training, were initiated to benefit individual communities and the specific groups of workers that
suffered most from the dislocation,

Boeing: Wichita, Kansas

For over 40 years, Boeing Aerospace was a stable driver of the Wichita economy. From an employ-
ment high of 35,000 in 1956 on the B-52 project, Boeing successfully converted a significant part of its
defense operations into a commercial aircraft business. But by 1970 an ailing commercial airline market
had reduced employment at the plant to 4,200. Prospects for obtaining defense contracts to supplement
dwindling commercial business were scarce. Layoffs followed, pushing Wichita’s unemployment rate up
to 14 percent.”

The Boeing experience illustrates the role of federal, state, and local authorities in helping a commu-
nity and its workers adjust to problem times. The DoD Office of Economic Adjustment, established to
help communities cope with base closings, played a lead role in organizing action in Wichita. Prompted
by Congressional concem, the Federal Interagency Economic Adjustment Committee (IAEAC), made
up of representatives from 12 federal agencies, visited Wichita to conduct an assessment, The IAEAC
report recommended a set of nearly 50 development actions to expand the local economy. The purpose
was to promote local development, which could eventually receive federal funding to support key
community investments.

At the end of 1971, the Wichita Regional Economic Adjustment Committee (WREAC) was estab-
lished to advise local officials on growth matters that would affect industrial development. WREAC’s
strategy focused on increasing general economic growth and trade and on diversifying the economy to
help insulate it against the sporadic economic pattern in the aerospace industry. Based on these elements,
federal funds were sought to develop the infrastructure of the city and a major agricultural exhibition
coliseum.

These efforts were effective in promoting the economic development of Wichita, but had a lesser
effect on the specific laid-off Boeing workers. In fact, roughly 20,000 highly skilled former Boeing
employees were forced to relocate to take jobs in other localities. For the city, this represented a damag-
ing )>ss of human capital, as well as creating an enormous housing vacancy rate.”* Although statistics
show unemployment to have dropped to 6.5 percent in the one year following the layoffs, part of the
drop may be due to the large number of workers leaving the area. Substantial recovery for Wichita
seemed to be more in the long term, as federal funds at that time helped create a iyealthier and more
diverse economy for attracting workers and new businesses in the future. Additionally, the city boosted
funding at all educational levels, and efforts were put in place to develop capabilities in areas such as
engineering and technology at Wichita State University. The strategy developed by the city and federal
economic adjustment officials seemed to focus on long-term diversification {in some high-tech areas)
and on the much easier absorption of low-skilled workers laid off from Boeing at the time.

142

ray
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Breaking faith and breaching contract with a superpatriotic, highly skilled defense force
cannot be done with dignity. Words will not numb the pain, pay the bills, find replacement
jobs, regain trust or restore the faith in those who have so honorably served an ungrateful
nation. (Army Times 17 September 1990)

It is servicemembers caught in the RIF and returned involuntarily, through no fault of their own, to
the civilian sector who should evoke particular sympathy and concer of the military and the federal
government in general. Most of those involved have dedicated their lives to military careers and many
have no particular orientation to civilian occupations. Most have families and all the obligations inherent
to sustaining these families. Most have sound educational backgrounds at least at the secondary educa-
tion level. Most enlisted personnel, however, lack postsecondary education, particularly higher educatior
relevant to civilian job requiremerts that will facilitate their career growth within civilian occupation
fields. Most do have GI benefits, such as the Montgomery GI Bill, that they can use as veterans for
education.

This paper will concentrate on educational resources available for the transition of active duty
servicemembers to the civilian sector. Since all known projections indicate that the Army will be the
military service to be affected first and perhaps the most by a military build-down of the 1990s, this
paper will reflect educational resources using principally Army examples. In addition, this paper will
raise pertinent issues regarding those resources and suggest approaches that could be taken to further
facilitate the transitioning process. The educational resources outlined in this work are focused primarily
on postsecondary educational opportunities that may be particularly worthwhile to servicemembers
eligible for inclusion in RIF actions.

Composition of the Military Services

Planning for and the execution of a military build-down during the 1990s as a result of the end of the
Cold War and the establishment of a desired “peace-time” structure of military forces must reflect the
national interests of the United States. Thus far in 1990, Americans have seen their military forces used
rather extensively in Panama and in the Middle East. With a 1990 adversary of the United States,
namely Iraq, having an army reportedly of around a million soldiers and American troops sent to deter it
from aggression, it is indeed difficult to contemplate reducing the 1989 U.S. Active Army of approxi-

mately 764,000 by 25 percent or more. Nevertheless, that has been the projection made by the Bush
administration and the Congress.

Numbers and projections are subject to rapid change as national strategic and budget issues for the
1990s are clarified. In fact, the Army Times announced on September 10, 1990, that ““Stop-loss’ takes
effect,” indicating the Operation Desert Shield would cause extended tours for thousands of service-
members. The Washington Times on September 13, 1990, indicated that the Army would call up
selected retirees involuntarily to active duty due to the Persian Gulf operation. During the fall of 1990
thousands of reservists and National Guard personnel were, in fact, called to active duty. On November
23, 1990, the Secretary of Defense delegated to the Secretary of the Army “authority to suspend any
provision of the law relating to retirements or discharges from the service.” Based on that authority, the
Army ordered a halt to voluntary discharges and retirements for most officers and enlisted personnel,
including those who have completed their active duty service commitment. (Office of the Secretary of
Defense 1990) Keeping the rapidly changing events in mind, the statistics presented belew can only
provide general insight into the composition of the military and possible scenarios for a build-down,

When thinking broadly of DoD and the U.S. Coast Guard (a Department of Transportation component
during peace time), over 5.4 million people compose the total mobilization force (see Table 1). Out of
that force, approximately 2.1 million personnel serve as the “active component” (see Table 2). (This
does not account for reservists and National Guardsmen serving on active duty.) This is contrasted to the
nearly 1.7 million reservists and members of the National Guard that comprise the reserve component

50



References

American Council on Education (1990). Principles of good practice for alternative and external degree programs for
adults. Washington, DC: Author

(1988). The 1988 guide to the evaluation of educational experiences in the armed services. 5 vol. Washington,
: Author

American Forces Information Services. (Nov/Dec. 1990). Defense 90 Almanac. Washington, DC: U.S. Government
Printing Office.

Anderson, C. L. & Kime, S.F. (1990). Adult higher education in the military: Blending traditional and nontraditional
education. Washington, DC: American Association of State Colleges and Universities.

Army Regulation 621-5 (1989). Army Continuing Education System (ACES). Washington, DC: Headquarters, Depart-
ment of the Army.

Army Times (Sep. 10, 1990). ‘Stop-loss’ takes effect, p. 6
(Sep. 17, 1990). 1990 reader survey: The results, pp.14, 15, 67.
(Nov. 5, 1990). 1991 Troop Reductions Eased, p. 3.

Atwell, RH. (Jul.12, 1990). Testimony before the House Veterans Affairs Subcommittee on Education, Training and
Employment. Washington, DC.

Berry, D.C. (1974). Higher education in the United States Army. New York: Carlton Press.

Boesel, D.P. & Johnson, K. (May 27, 1988). The DOD iuition assistance program: Participation and outcomes.
Arlington, VA: Defense Manpower Data Center.

Breckon, D.J. (1989). Occasional papers on nontraditional adult education. Parkville, MO: Park College.

Budge, L.D. (Jul. 23,1990). Army career and alumni program (ACAP). Letter of Instruction. Washington, DC: Depart-
ment of the Army, Office of the Deputy Chief of Staff for Personnel.

Congressional Record (Oct. 23, 1990) Chapter 58-Benefits and services for members being separated. Proceeding and
debates of the 101st Congress, Second Session, Vol 136, No. 146-Part II, H11956-H11959.

DANTES Information Bulletin, Apr.90, Supplement 3.

___ May 89, Supplement 4.

Esposito, C.V. (1989). The Army college fund program and improving the participation in higher education in Pennsyl-
vania, Unpublished Master's Paper. Harrisburg: PA; The Pennsylvania State University.

Hexter, H. & El-Khawas, E. (1988). Joining forces: The military's impact on college enrollents, Washington, DC:
American Council on Education.

79

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10. NOCTI test title: Building Trades Maintenance (TOCT test code 025)

MOS: Builder (Navy NER-BU-001; similar occupational titles in other branches)

Training/competencies: Performs construction maintenance; repairs wooden, concrete and
masonry structures; installs floor and wall coverings, door and window trim, moldings
and glass; mixes, places, and finishes concrete; reads blueprints and makes simple shop
drawings.

State/natiora! licensure implications: Most states require builders to be licensed but standards
very widely. Most tests require knowledge of national and/or state building codes.

State Licensure/Certification Implications

State certification or licensure may be a factor as military personnel attempt to move from the military
into a similar ~ivilian occupation. For that reason, auto mechanics and building trades were included
among the 10 occupations used to demonstrate the application of our model. Most states generally
require licensure or certification in auto mechanics and building trades. Although standards vary widely
from state to state, some type of written examination is most often employed to ensure the licensure/
certification candidate has the skills required by that state.

To more closely examine the typical licensure/certification requirements and the subsequent educa-
tion/training necessary to be prepared to pass a state-required licensure/certification test, the State of
Michigan was selected. Specifically, officials were asked about the requirements for licensure or certifi-
cation as an auto mechanic and as a builder. Interestingly enough, licensure/certification in these two
occupational areas are administered through two separate offices within the state government. Auto
mechanics are certified by the Michigan Secretary of State and builders are licensed through the Michi-
gan Department of Licensing and Regulation. Both programs, however, require completion of a paper
and pencil test with a score above a state-determined minimum to obtain licensure/certification. For auto
mechanic certification, the candidate may take either the state-prepared auto mechanics test or the
Automotive Service Excellence (ASE) examination, which is used by many states for certification

purposes. A passing score on either exam will yield certification. For a prospective builder, only one
state test is available.

Specifically with regard to auto mechanics certification, when we asked how to prepare for the test we
were referred to a list of textbooks for self-study or to area high schools and community colleges for
formalized vocational auto mechanics training programs; see Appendix H. Since the NOCTI exam for
auto mechanics reflects what is required in the industry to be an auto mechanic as well as training
programs designed for auto mechanics, taking the NOCTI test would help an individual in the military
preparing for a civilian sector job as an auto mechanic to determine his or her strengths and weaknesses
prior to attempting to take the state test. The Michigan test and the NOCTI test are very similar in
content. Taking the NOCTI test would allow an individual to determine if additional course work,
experience, or self-study would be necessary in order to perform well on the state certification test in
auto mechanics. Currently, the NOCTI auto mechanics test is used in this fashion by vocational centers
and community colleges across the couniry.

Concerning building trades, Michigan officials recommended extensive study of state and national
building codes as preparation for their test. Once again, we were referred to a listing of textbooks and
directed to local high schools cr community college vocational programs in building trades for for-
malized courses and programming. Again, the NOCTI examination would be an excellent step for an
-ndividual in the military to take in preparation for seeking licensure as a builder. Since the exarn is built
around the national building code, test results would indicate to people in the military what their
strengths are in relation to building trades and for which areas they nceded to seck additional course
work, self-study, or experience prior to attempting the state building exam. Although the NOCTI test
does not contain state building code items, it does parallel the state exam in relation to national building
code content and general building competencies.

89 ar



The model projects an annual inventory by assuming accession levels cannot fall below 95 percent of
the long-term sustaining level. The model first estimates voluntary losses in each category and then
estimates the additional losses required to meet the end strength while maintaining accessions above 95
percent of the sustaining level. The two scenarios differ only in where additional losses are allowed to
occur. The first case restricts losses to those with less than 10 years of service, while the second allows
more senior separations. In each case the mix of involuntary separations is chosen by trying to achieve a
balanced future experience mix similar to that experienced in the 1980s. Of course, the greater flexibility
provided by the 2- to 18-years-of-service option provides the most balanced force shaping.

The model generates annual accessions and the annual inventory and losses by years of service and
demographic characteristics. We run the model through the year 2010, although later estimates should be
treated as simple simulations rather than predictions of future events. We have assumed for these results
that voluntary loss rates are at FY 1987 through FY 1989 levels for each service. These loss rates are
close to average loss rates over the 1980s.

Results

The Employment Effect.

Tables 3 and 4 show that in the longer term the Armed Forces will annually employ atdut 315,000 to
325,000 fewer youths serving with 1 to 5 years of service (YOS 1-5) and 108,000 to 127,000 fewer with
between 6 and 15 years of service (YOS 6-15). In the long run, these numbers are relatively insensitive
to the specific drawdown scenario used. This represents about a 30 percent decrease in the junior group
and a 19 to 23 percent decline in the more senior group.

Table 3.—Number of YOS 1-15 youths employed in the armed services (thousands)

% Change % Change
(1980-89 to (1980-89 to
Scenario 1980-89 1992-96 1992-96) 2000-10 2000-10)
Junior 1055 115 32 741 30
Senior 1055 741 30 732 31

Table 5 shows the civilian labor force and the numbers employed and unemployed in 1988. We will
compare the YOS 1-5 group to the 20- to 24-year-old labor force and the YOS 6-15 group to the
25- to 34-year-old labor group. The unemployment rates show correspond to rates of 9 percent for the
younger group and 5 percent for the older group.

Table 4.—Number of YOS 6-15 youths employed in the armed services (thousands)

% Change % Change
(1980-89 to (1980-89 to
Scenario 1980-89 1992-96 1992-96) 2000-10 2000-10)
Junior 563 531 6 436 23
Senior 563 519 8 455 19

In comparing the accession decline to the comparable male civilian labor force groups, we will
assume that 13 percent of the military groups are female. This represents the proportion in today’s force
and will probably not change significantly at lower force levels.

43

cs
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What Are the Occupations of Defense Workers?

In 1988, there were a total of about 3,400,000 workers in private sector defense-related jobs. This
constitutes about 50 percent of the total defense workforce (which also includes active duty military
personnel and DoD civilian employees) and approximately 3 percent of the nation’s total workforce.>
Within these defense industries, employment is concentrated in a relatively small number of skill
categories, including engineering, the sciences, and a broad number of mechanical and manufacturing
disciplines. Table | lists the numbers of defense workers in major occupational specialties. These
workers tend to be much more highly specialized and highly paid than their commercial counterparts.
This salary differential has been a major impediment to the reersployment of defense workers during
past retrenchments, since defense workers are unwilling to accept the lower salaries that are earned in
commercial work. The transition of specialized defense workers to new jobs has a downside for the
economy as well. Skilled defense workers constitute an important national asset that cannot easily be

replaced once skills are lost or dispersed across industry. This is particularly true in technically complex
or highly advanced areas, such as optics.

Where Are Defense Industries Located?

A final characteristic of defense employment is its regional distribution. Although defense jobs are
spread throughout the nation, most are concentrated in relatively few states, which focuses any dislo-
cations associated with defense cutbacks as well as government and private sector efforts to facilitate
reemployment. Nearly 60 percent of private sector and government defense jobs are located in only 10
states. These include California (18.9 percent of all defense jobs), Texas (6.3 percent), Virginia (5.9
percent), New York (5.6 percent), Florida (4.4 percent), Massachusetts (3.8 percent), Ohio (3.7 percent),
Pennsylvania (3.7 percent), Maryland (3.1 percent), and Washington (2.9 percent). In contrast, 22 states
each have less than | percent of the jobs created by DoD and will be relatively unaffected by the deci-
sion to shift expenditures from defense.®

Thus, the reduction in defense expenditures can be expected to affect a wide distribution of workers.
For the past decade, high levels of defense spending have been a fact of life. They are a fact of life no
more. Although the dislocation will not be as large over the short term as that experienced during
previous contractions, a large number of workers—perhaps hundreds of thousands over several years—
will lose their jobs and seek work at a time when general economic conditions are at a downturn.
Despite the pervasiveness of defense production, which touches nearly all industries, occupations, and
states, some groups and locations will experience greater dislocations than others because of a high
degree of defense dependency and a limited capability to apply specialized skills to nondefense enter-
prises. Among the industries that will be hardest hit are guided missiles, shipbuilding, tanks, ammuni-
tion, and aerospace. Most of the laid-off workers will be in manufacturing-related occupations—pre-
dominantly engineers; craft and related workers such as aircraft mechanics, machinists, inspectors and
testers; and operatives, the skilled workers who actually produce and assemble defense products. The
geographical area that will be hardest hit is California (which suffered a similar downtum in the early
1970s), but the impact will be felt from Texas to manufacturing cent-rs in the Midwest and to the
Eastern Seaboard.

History shows that the effects of defense cutbacks are more dependent upon the state of the economy
and other external factors than the sheer number of workers affected. These past experiences are not
directly analogous to today, but they do provide insight into how the negative impacts of cutbacks on
workers and their communities can be minimized. Some of the lessons learned from the past are
described in the sections that follow.

133



Human Resource Management Cluster

“Besides death and taxes, the other thing managers can be assured of is that they must work with
people.” This fact accounts for the finding that most of the Human Resource Management cluster (with
the exception of managing group processes) was demonstrated to the same degree by private and public
sector managers. These competencies—socialized power and influence, positive regard for others, and
accurate self-assessment—are manifested in a manager's use of alliances, networks, and teams to
accomplish objectives at all levels of the organization. At higher levels, the manager must build relation-
ships and garner the support required to push ideas and programs through the system. In relating to
subordinates, the manager must have enough positive expectations of them to invest the developmental
support necessary to achieve goals through others. Accurate self-assessment enables managers to sur-
round themselves with the experts necessary to get the job done right, without attempting to do it all
themselves. Although somewhat important overall, these competencies contribute primarily to the
effectiveness of middle-level managers in both sectors. In addition, socialized power and influence was
related to effectiveness among entry-level managers in both sectors.

Focusing on Others Cluster

One competency within the Focusing on Others cluster is demonstrated to a greater degree by
superior performers. This competency, perceptual objectivity, is equally demonstrated in the skill levels
of private and public sector managers. Managers in both sectors are required to transcend personal bias
and comprehend multiple perspectives simultaneously. These individuals effectively distance themselves
from emotional involvement, thus making decisions and taking actions that are more successful for the
organization. Differences in this competency were also found among managerial levels, with executives
exhibiting greater skill at objectivity than other managers.

Summary of Competency Differences and Similarities

For approximately half of the competencies within the general management competency profile,
similar skill levels are demonstrated in the private and public sectors. As has been stated, these differ-
ences can be largely attributed to opportunities in the job to practice and experience these competencies,
in accordance with the demands of the job. Three additional findings serve to support this thesis. First
and most important, for almost every required (non-threshold) competency, although absolute differ-
ences may have been found in skill levels, superior performers demonstrated more of the competency
than their less effective counterparts in both the private and public sectors. This means that particular
individuals have a propensity for developing the competency in either environment and for finding ways
to exhibit it. The absolute levels of the competencies parallel the demands made by the job and the
context in which it exists.

A second interesting finding is that in most cases, public sector managers demonstrated higher levels
of motivation toward the same competencies for which they demonstrated lower skill levels than their
private sector counterparts.‘ Motivation level was measured using a projective testing procedure, which
may be assumed to be less valid than behavioral measurement methods. However, the finding was so
consistent across competencies, that other explanations may be derived. For example, according to
Maslow’s model of motivation, unfulfilled motivations continue to be expressed, whereas fulfilled
motivations no longer serve to actively motivate a person. Using this theory, public sector managers
working in environments where the demonstration of particular competencies, such as efficiency orien-
tation, is constrained by the environmental demands, would continue to express high motivation for the
competency.

The third finding is the relative size of the differences compared to inter-level differences and inter-

industry differences. In every instance that a competency difference was found between the private and
public sectors, similar differences were found between managerial levels and between industry or

m7 1i7



4) Consolidating this information into a competency model, which describes the characteristics that
distinguish the superior performers from others. A complex iteration process is used by the
research team to identify overlapping themes and to incorporate competencies and behavioral
indicators into the model from all data sources. Competencies with evidence of consistent value
in all functional areas are included in the competency model.

Job Competency Assessment grew out of the research and applied methods of noted psychologist
David McClelland on motive profiles. His early method of motivation assessment, called “Content
Analysis of Verbal Expression,” combined with decades of empirical research on the relationship of
motives (such as the need for achievement and need for power) to productivity levels, led to this applied
method of individual and organizational assessment. In the three decades since, Dr. McClelland’s
company, McBer & Company (a member of the Hay Group), has developed competency models of
literally thousands of jobs in hundreds of organizations.

126

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during the previous periods. At the height of the most recent buildup, defense spending accounted for
about 28 percent of the federal budget. In comparison, the defense share of the budget at the peak of the
Korean War was almost 70 percent of the budget and the Vietnam War peak reached 46 percent.”
Figure 1 shows the trends in defense spending during the peak years of past buildups.

Figure 1.—Defense outlays as a share of the gross national product

14

12)

Korean Conflict

Vietnam Conflict

Recent Buildup

Percent of GNP

0
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1991

Fiscal Year

Source: Secretary of Defense
‘Annual Report to the Congress, 1990

Of particular importance from an economic perspective is the composition of the military budget,
which is divided among operations and maintenance, procurement, military personnel, and research,
development, testing, and evaluation accounts. During the last decade’s growth in defense spending, a
large proportion of defense dollars were allocated to procurement—hard goods, services, and other items
produced by industry. Procurement spending (in constant dollars) more than doubled between the late

1970s and the late 1980s. This spending quickly built up the defense operations of domestic firms and
swelled the demand for manpower within defense-related industries.

Although it is inevitable that cutbacks will occur, the debate on the Fiscal Year 1991 budget left
unresolved many important decisions about the size and shape of future DoD budgets. In addition to
uncertainty surrounding the magnitude of the cutback, the reemployment opportunities facing laid-off
defense workers will be molded by decisions on the overall course of the federal budget. Since the key
factors affecting reemployment are the state of the nation’s economy and the workers’ ability to transi-
tion to new jobs in the commercial sector, much will depend on the size and distribution of any “peace
dividend” that is realized. Among the possibilities are the reallocation of funds from defense to other
areas of federal spending. This could, for example, involve a decision to increase infrastructure funding
to make up for many years of neglect. This option would not necessarily lead to economic growth but
would facilitate the transfer of unskilled and lower-skilled defense workers to jobs in firms that are the
new beneficiaries of federal non-defense spending. (Spending on deferred public works projects served
as an important countercyclical stimulus during the post-World War II and Korea build-downs for

131

, 132



subsidize a larger portion of education and training in their countries than the United States does. Therefore,
any training U.S. companies provide will be “catch-up” at this point and should improve competitiveness.

Imperfect Market Information

Some companies cannot adequately anticipate the costs of training, in terms of development and
delivery of training, as well as the lost productivity while training takes place. In addition, firms are not
able to anticipate the effect of training on employee performance and overall company performance.
Imperfect information also exists in regard to future technological changes, job turnover rates, and firm
viability. All these uncertainties make firms less likely to invest in training.

Exemplary Approaches in Training

Recently, U.S. firms have been looking abroad to countries like Germany and Japan in order to learn
lessons from the production methods, work organization, technological integration, and training methods
that are used in their efficient business operations. There are lessons to be learned from the work organi-
zation and instructional training techniques used in other countries. In addition, recent commissions have
studied the training policies of American firms that spend considerable time and resources in training.

Foreign Production Practices

It is important to note that the governments of many countries have generous policies that offer
support for education and training. However, in countries like Japan, the training and education for
specific jobs and careers is left to the companies, not the governments, and human resource development
is given a very high priority. A number of countries—Japan, Italy, and Germany in particular—have
been noted as rejecting the mass production methods fostered in the United States and developing
alternative forms of workplace organization which allow them flexibility in responding to new technolo-
gies and creating variations on products to serve a segmented marketplace. The Japanese, in particular,
have been successful in shortening product development cycles so that they are able to quickly imple-
ment commercial products in response to new inventions and scientific discoveries. Linkages between
product conception, development, and production allow quality to be built into the product (not just the
production process) and simplicity to be built into the manufacturing process.!© The goal of the Japanese
is to provide continuous training that creates workers who are highly skilled, flexible, and multi-func-
tional. This is the opposite of the worker created under a mass production system, whose job is narrowly
defined and requires low skill levels. Additionally, the Japanese organizational structure is often superior
because it is less hierarchical and compartmentalized.

The training done by Japanese firms is extensive and given very high priority in terms of both corpo-
rate policy and managerial success.!” Four main types of training thai are sponsored in Japan. On-the-job
training is much more formal than in the United States and reflects a much different training philosophy.
Workers acquire general skills through rotation in various departments which makes them very flexible
and gives them broad knowledge of other sections of the firm. Many employees also spend a given
amount of time cach year at corporate-sponsored special training centers. Additionally, employees are
encouraged to develop their skills through correspondence courses, with costs generally reimbursed by
the company at the completion of the course. Finally, employees are expected to partivipate in quality
circles and other group activities aimed at improving firm performance. The emphasis on these four
types of training not only creates a better trained workforce, but creates a different type of worker.

Successful Training in the United States

In a few industries, such as automobile manufacturing, computers, and copiers, some U.S. companies
have been able to improve their competitive position by radically changing production processes and

155



Curriculum Advisory Councils (CACs)

The CACs play a major role in shaping the training curriculum for the Day/Evening Program and the
Learning Center. (CACs have little input into the Leadership Through Quality process.) CACs provide
the needs analysis that guides Xerox training departments in their development of courses. CACs usually
consist ef five or six individuals, and include representatives from technical education, management, and
professionals i ina particular field. There are a number of CACs, e.g., electrical engineering, mechanical
engineering, computer science, management, and administrative support, which act as advocates for
training. Their responsibilities are widespread, and they meet approximately once a month to accomplish
their tasks. These responsibilities include:

¢ Keeping on top of the Jatest technological developments in the field,
+ Assessing the impact of technological development on Xerox’s workforce, and

+ Identifying the training to put in place to meet this technological challenge (training needs).

CACs serve as checkpoints to the training department because they tell the training departments what
skills need to be provided to meet business objectives. It is from this point that the training departments
can (1) develop or modify in-house courses, (2) consult public sources or vendors for the provision of
courses, or (3) enlist the help of a local college or university. The CACs act as both the co-suppliers and
the customers of the training; they also offer quality control because they ensure that the course meets
their stated requirements. The CACs are currently undergoing a revitalization process to ensure that the
existing members are appropriate and to elevate the visibility of the position so that membership is
viewed as an integral part of the job.

Supervisors and Employees

Supervisors and employees play an obvious role in the training system. Employees are the consumers
of courses offered, and all courses must be approved and paid for by supervisors from their training
budget. To stress the importance of training and education, Xerox includes personal and professional
development in the performance appraisal process. Each appraisal should contain at least two develop-
mental actions—one personal and one professional goal. Employees are given yearly objectives in order
to promote the “continuous improvement” process. Personal objectives may include courses in time
management, delegation, listening, or any other area in which the employee could improve. Professional
objectives often take the form of conferences or seminars, teclinical courses, or the acquisition of skills
in an emerging technology. Training courses are offered to address both personal and professional
objectives. It becomes in the best interest of the worker to improve in the areas noted, and it is the duty
of the supervisor to recommend specific objectives.

Management

Management also plays an important part in Xerox’s training system. Human resource utilization is
critical to the Leadership Through Quality initiative, and training is one of the six key strategies used to
change the Xerox culture and improve the quality of Xerox’s workforce. The commitment to training is
taken seriously as evidenced by policies and practices such as requiring manzgers to budget for training

and requiring personal and professional development improvement objectives to be included in the
performance appraisal process.

Leadership Through Quality

Xerox's unique Leadership Through Quality process is described in the next section. Training for the
Leadership Through Quality process was developed and implemented through a special internal task
force. After the process was developed, training was first provided to the firm’s top officers. Once they

159



Military Cutbacks
and the

Expanding Role
of Education

Nevzer Stacey

with contributions by

Clinton Lee Anderson
Joshua D. Angrist

Burt Barnow and Amy B. Chasanov

David Boesel

David Grissmer

Janice Laurence

Lois Lembo and Judith Philipson

Meridith Ludwig and Holly Hexter
Joyce L. Shields and Joanne Adams

Scott Whitener

Office of Research
Office of Educational Research and Improvement
U.S. Department of Education

a)
v

ee


Notes

‘Murray Weidenbaum, Beyond the Cold War: How to Deal With Defense Cutbacks, (Draft, July 1990), chap 4, p. 11.

*Yolanda K. Henderson, “Defense Cutbacks and the New England Economy,” New England Economic Review (July/August
1990), 4.

‘bid.
‘Linda Levine, “Defense Spending Cuts and Employment Adjustment,” CRS Report for Congress (February 16, 1990), 2.

‘Joseph V. Cartwright, “Potential Defense Work Force Dislocations and U.S. Defense Budget Cuts: An Illustration,” (DoD
Office of Economic Adjustment Staff Paper, March 1990), 2.

“Levine, op. cit., 11-12.

7U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, as cited in U.S. Congress, Legislative Reference Service,
Mobilization Planning and the National Security (1950-1960): Problems and Issues (Washington, DC: 1950), 211.

‘Geoffrey Perrett, Days of Sadness, Years of Triumph: The American People 1939-1945 (New York: Coward, McCann, and
Geoghegan, 1973), 399.

°Alan S. Milward, Alan S., War, Economy and Society 1939-1945 (Berkeley, CA: University of California Press, 1979),
229.

“Chronology derived from Robert H. Connery, The Navy and the Industrial Mobilization in World War I (Princeton, NJ:
Princeton University Press, 1951), 464-514.

“Perrett, op. cit., 401.

"Indeed, one of the first, and most scrious, political controversies concerning the World War II mobilization was the
conflict throughout 1940 and 1941 between the “all-outers” (who favored massive aid to the Allies, a buildup of U.S.
military strength, and early intervention on the side of Britain) and the industrialists who controlled the Office of
Production Management and other prewar mobilization agencies (who favored a slower, defensively-oriented buildup,
were reluctant to abandon prewar civilian markets and commercial arrangements, and feared the economic dislocations
that could be caused by overexpansion for war).

"Testimony before House Committee on Appropriations, May 1943, cited in U.S. Civilian Production Administration,
Bureau of Demobilization, “Development of the Reconversion Policies of the War Production Board, April 1943 to
January 1945,” Historical Reports on War Administration: War Production Board, Special Study No. 15, February 1945, 3.

“Emest Kanzler, “Economic Demobilization and Reconversion, The Problem and Some Recommendations,” War
Production Board, June 1943.

‘For discussions of the political controversies about reconversion, see Donald M. Nelson, Arsenal of Democracy: The
Story of American War Production (New York: Harcourt, Brace and Co., 1946), Bruce Catton, The War Lords of
Washington (New York: Harcourt, Brace and Co., 1948).

"Sce Gerald D. Nash, The American West Transformed: The Impact of the Second Wortd War (Bloomington: U. of Indiana
Press, 1985), 201-208

149 4
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differentiate superior managers from average managers. The results included a general competency
model of managers and several subsets representing the models for managers in the specific sector or
level. The general model of management effectiveness includes four impertant clusters: “Goal and
Action Management,” “Leadership,” “Human Resource Management,” and “Focusing on Others.” Each
cluster contaiis several individual competencies, most of which differ in their relationship to effective
performance in the public and private sectors. In the next section of this paper, these results will be
applied to an analysis of the similarities and differences between management sector jobs and their

implications for transitioning managers from the public to the private sectors. This relationship is
illustrated in Figure 3.

Figure 3.—Job competency requirements

Upper Level
Job Competencies

General
Management
Profile

Private Sector
Job Competencies

Public Sector
Job Competencies

Lower Level
Job Competencies

Job Sector Competencies: Similarities and Differences

To what extent do management jobs in the public and private sectors have congruent job demands and
organizational environments? Answering this question would significantly contribute to our understand-
ing of the potential gap in the qualifications of individuals transitioning from the defense department.
On the other hand, a direct analysis of the competency requirements of managers in the public and
private sectors offers an immediate vehicle for predicting the performance gaps for individuals migrating
from one sector to the other. Also, analysis of consistent linkages between competencies and job and

environmental demands allows us to identify the contextual “stimulus” for the developmest of the
competency.

As reflected in Figure 4, effective performance is comprised of three components: the individual, the
job, and the organization. Individual competencies interact with the demands or requirements of the job
and the organization's internal and external environment to result in effective performance.

110
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SOCAD student agreements through FY 1989 (contracts for associate degrees), the mean numbers of
credits applied to an associate degree are 3.71 semester hours based on military service schools and
10.38 semester hours based on military occupational specialties. In other words, approximately 14
semester hours out of a standard 60-semester-hour associate degree program are fulfilled by soldier-
students through the award of credits recommended in the ACE Guide. These same SOCAD Student
Agreements document that over 1 million semester hours of academic credit have been applied to
associate degree plans for soldiers from 1978 through September 1989 (see Table 13).

Table 13.—Nontraditional credit awarded by civilian colleges as documented on SOCAD student
agreements, FY 78-FY 89)'

Credit source Semester hours
Military service schools (ACE Guide) 260,877
MOS (ACE Guide) 729,742,
CLEP 69,300
DSSTs 18,547
ACT/PEP & others 8,350
Total 1,086,816

Source: SOCAD Student Data Report, 30 September 1989
‘Based on 70,319 SOCAD student agreements.

Blending of academic credits based on nontraditional learning with traditional associate and
bachelor’s degree programs offered by regionally accredited civilian colleges and universities is a
principal function of the SOCAD, SOCNAV, and BDFS networking systems. The Community College
of the Air Force performs a similar function except the degrees are conferred by a military institution.

Limitations and issues regarding higher education in the military are numerous and complex. Ander-
son and Kime, in their book Adult Higher Education in the Military: Blending Traditional and
Nontraditional Education (1990), discuss the following:

* Military/institutional relationships;

* Training versus education;

* Higher education and war-fighting capabilities;

* Use of education credentials;

* Promises and pitfalls of technology, and

* Quality education degree programs

Although all of these issues have a bearing on educational resources available for transition of
servicemembers, this paper will review briefly a few limitations or issues that may adversely affect
servicemembers in the transitioning process.

For exaraple, postsecondary education in the military, like all voluntary education, is a command
function and reflects the interest and priorities of the commander. The base education officers, special-
ists, and counselors belong to the local commands and respond to those installation, base, fleet, post,
camp and community commanders. Although policy and fiscal guidance is given by OSD, the military
services, and their major subordinate commands and the parameters of the voluntary education program
are documented in a DoD directive, implemented in service regulations, and supplemented by directives



Table 6.—Education of the active force as of December 31, 1989

Total officers 301,410
Below baccalaureate 14,044
Baccalaureate only degree 163,843
Advanced degree 106,500
Unknown 17,023

Total enlisted 1,796,983
No high school diploma or GED 35,857
High school graduate or GED 1,633,006
Alternative Education Credential 14,809
1-4 years of college (no bachelor’s degree) 66,572
Baccalaureate degree 40,780
Advanced degree 3,092
Unknown 2,867

Source: Armed Forces Information Services, Defense 90 Almanac, 30.

The enlisted force is clearly a target group for higher education, especially at the associate and
bz shelor’s degree levels. Many among this group enlisted immediately after high school. Many were
searching for training and education but chose the military instead of becoming traditional college
students. Many did not have the financial resources needed to go to college, while others merely wanted
a break in their academic studies. Some came from family backgrounds that did not give postsecondary
education a high priority. Considerable numbers of them were attracted to the military by the educa-
tional benefits promised by military recruiting efforts.

The military training and experience of active duty enlisted personnel are generally technical, as
shown in Table 7. In order to achieve their military occupational specialty, rate, or rating, enlisted
personnel must successfully complete the required military service school courses. Many of these
technical courses have been deemed worthy of academic credit by the American Council on Education.
Combat arms and combat support servicemembers at sergeant levels are heavily engaged in managerial
responsibilities in personnel, logistics, financial, and supervisory areas. Consequently, all military
occupational specialities lend themselves to some higher education that complements military jobs and
supplements military training. While in-service, many enlisted servicemembers have engaged in on-base
education programs and taken academic tests such as College Board’s College Level Examinaticn
Program (CLEP), the American College Testing Program Proficiency Examination Program (ACT/
PEP), and the Defense Activity for Nontraditional Education (DANTES) Subject Standardized Test
(DSSTs), as discussed late: in this paper.

53

36



Support for Continuing Education Within the Military

Tuition assistance, which has been the chief vehicle for access to voluntary education for
active duty personnel, will likely be altered in scope and focus. Other sources of assistance
(such as federal student aid programs and veterans benefits) will then be more frequently used
by active duty personnel.

Whether in the drawdown the military can provide opportunities for postsecondary study commensu-
rate with demand, or even with most recent precedents, is uncertain. The general assumption is that
fewer dollars will be allocated to support voluntary education, services will be reduced, and conse-
quently fewer servicemembers will be able to participate. As this is being written, the services are in the
throes of internal debate about the future of their voluntary education programs and the allocation of
tuition assistance. It’s wise to keep in mind that the services’ discretion in the use of tuition assistance
dollars and the distinctive profiles of the individual services’ voluntary education programs mean that no
single decision or program will emerge. Nevertheless, the resulting policies will shape the level of
participation in postsecondary education as well as the nature of educational opportunities.

In recent years budget constraints already have compelled the services to limit the availability of
tuition assistance by placing caps either on the amount reimbursed per credit or upon the total number of
credits allowed. Some of the contemplated changes could dramatically further restrict the eligibility for
receiving tuition assistance. The realities of a “budget-driven environment” may force the services to tie
availability of tuition assistance to proponent-endorsed degrees, rather than to more general programs.

The proposals to link continuing education within the military more closely to occupational specialty
have reactivated a longstanding debate about the purpose of service-sponsored voluntary education. In
recent years, the programs have reflected the philosophy of the intrinsic value of a better educated force,
and a full spectrum of programs and services have been offered to assist in the servicemember’s personal
and professional development. In today’s belt-tightening, however, it seems clear that the services’
“corporate” needs will take precedence over individual ones. “The pendulum now appears to be swing-
ing toward education linked to training,” comments one military educator. “This change in philosophy
will change the nature of educational opportunities within the military.” Added another educator:

There is real danger that as monies get shorter, education will be subordinated to training, so
much so as to simply become an extension of training needs. The strongest argument against
this development is. that it will not prepare military personnel for life outside the military.
Despite the fact that recruiting programs are going to have to emphasize educational oppor-

tunities even more heavily, the hazard is that education will simply get swallowed up by
training.

The services are likely to attempt to stretch finite tuition assistance resources in another significant
way—by encouraging servicemembers to use other, nonmilitary sources of aid. Thus, as tuition assis-
tance dries up, military personnel are being encouraged to use Montgomery GI Bill benefits, as well as
to apply for Pell Grants and other scholarships. (The increasing substitution of veterans’ benefits, which
were originally enacted for postservice use, for in-service education raises a policy issue that extends
beyond this paper’s scope but is nevertheless one that warrants serious examination.) This development
will place added pressure on the student financial aid system.

The 1estructuring of where and how voluntary education is delivered also will alter educational
opportunities. Even if tuition assistance remains generally available, the closing, consolidation, or
downsizing of military installations will mean that access to education programs will vary. The services
are weighing options that include retaining a core of education program offerings at each education
service center and permitting installations to determine additional offerings based on demand, as well as
restructuring the program to concentrate resources solely on the largest installations. The services will be
placing greater emphasis on such forms of nontraditional educational services as independent study and

178



OCCUuP. EXAM

NECESSARY FOR
STATE OR TERRITORY -CERTIFICATION?
Yes No
New Hampshire x
New Jersey x
New Mexico x
New York x
North Carolina xX
North Dakota P Colalaiaiel
Ohio x
kiahoma x
Oregon x
Pennsylvania x
Puerto Rico xX
Rhode Island x
South Carolina xX
South Dakota »4
Tennessee x
Texas x
Utah Xrwewe
Vermont Xatewn

***for B.S. degree only; not for certification

UNIVERSITY GRANTING CREDIT

Keene State College
University of New Hampshire

Glassboro State College
Rutgers, The State University
(Cook College requires TOCT)
Trenton State College
Eastern New Mexico University
City College of New York
State University College at
Buffalo

None

ND State College of Science
Cleveland State University
The Ohio State University
University of Cincinnati
University of Toledo

Central State University
Oklahoma State University

Oregon State University
Indiana University of Penn.
Pennsylvania State University
Temple University

University of Pittsburgh
None

Rhode Island College

None

None

Middle Tenn. State University
Texas A & M University
University of Houston
University of North Texas
Utah State University

University of Vermont
165

AMOUNT OF CREDIT

30 Sem. Hours
Variable - Up to
30 Sem. Hours

Up to 18 Sem. Hrs
18 Sem. Hours

28 Sem. Hours
45 Sem. Hours
16-32 Sem. Hours

30 Sem. Hours***

Variable

36 Qtr. Hours
24 Qtr. Hours
36 Ctr. Hours
36 Qtr. Hours

24 Sem. Hours
24 Sem. Hours

Up to 45 Ctr. Hour
24 Sem. Hours***
24 Sem. Hours***

24 Sem. Hours***
24 Sem. Hours***

32 Sem. Hours

18 Sem. Hours
24 Sem. Hours
30 Sem. Hours
24 Sem. Hours
18 Qtr. Hours

Up to 30 Sem. Hrs

****These hours are awarded after the completion of 90 crecit hours towards a Bachelor's degree.
***s*Required for preservice teachers lacking work experience



of military occupations, skilled and unskilled, technical and nontechnical. Military occupational prepara-
tion is continucd through on-the-job training and, for some specialties, through advanced skill training.
Military training is unique in that the responsibility for success rests mainly with the trainer rather than
the trainee. Further, training is not based on the mere hope of a job, since once enlisted, everyone is
guaranteed a position.

In addition to providing training to support military-specitic functions, the services provide for and
encourage participation in other educational pursuits. Most people are familiar with post-service educa-
tional benefits. Today’s version of the GI Bill is not as generous as the post-World War II version, but it
promotes college and vocational school participation nonetheless. The Montgomery GI Bill is a volun-
tary program which, in exchange for 3 years of service and the service member’s contribution of $1,200
dollars, prevides up to $10,800 to finance education.'” A 1988 report released by the American Council
on Education footnoted the fact that black participation in the GI Bill was quite respectable. In fact,
according to the Army Education Office, while blacks comprised 22 percent of recruits, 27 percent of
blacks were enrolled in the New GI Bill program.'* Further, there are ample opportunities to pursue
education while in the service, during off-duty time. Tuition assistance is provided for study at accred-
ited institutions. And under the auspices of the Defense Activity for Non-Traditional Education Support
(DANTES), not only is such study made flexible but every effort is made to evaluate a member’s
previous ~*~ational pursuits as well as in-service training and experience for formal educational credit.
According to a Department of Defense study published in 1988, black participation in the Army and Air
Force Tuition Assistance Programs was higher than that for whites. While the figures are thought to be
underestimates, the trends were reported as follows. Approximately 11 percent of blacks in the Army
had used tuition assistance while only 9 percent of whites had done so. The comparable figures for the
Air Force were 26 and 24 percent, respectively. Another way of looking at the participation in off-duty,
military-supported education is that at the time of the study, blacks accounted for 26 percent of the
Army and 30 percent of Army participants in tuition assistance. On the other hand, while whites ac-
counted for 69 percent of the Army, they claimed only 64 percent of the tuition assistance.!? While
.ecent data indicate that only 3 percent of recruits enter with some college experience,” many military
personnel are working towards their education while in service and planning to do so afterwards. And

the evidence has been particularly encouraging for minorities. A report prepared for the House and
Senate Committees on Armed Services concluded:

Although there is no way to quantify the number of Service members who have improved
their basic skills while in the military, or the number of young people who entered the service

as high school dropouts and emerged with equivalency diplomas or more, the figure must be
exceedingly large.*!

Table 5 shows the number and percentage of enlisted personnel at various levels of educational
attainment by race-ethnicity. Over 90 percent of the rank and file have at least a traditional diploma. And
if one counts alternative credentials, about 98 percent have a high school education or better. Though
these numbers are heavily influenced by enlistment policy (i.e., the military’s preference for enlisting
high school diploma graduates), until 1981 the percentage of recruits coming in with a regular diploma
did not exceed 80 percent.” Each of the racial-ethnic groups is quite similar in this regard. The percent-
ages with at least a regular diploma ranges from a low of 91 percent for Hispanics to a high of 95
percent for blacks. By adding alternative credentials to this percentage, practically everyone has a
secondary school education. There’s more good news. Compared to the percentage of recruits entering
with some college experience (e.g., 3 and 2 percent of white and black accessions, respectively, in FY
1989),”> the percentage among the enlisted corps is at least double. Outside the military, blacks are
underrepresented in higher education and since the purchasing power of federal student aid has declined,
undertaking a college education without help from the military may be beyond many.

26

30



Expectations are that overall active duty force levels will be cut by about 25 percent from just over 2
million to about 1.5 million. And the largest service, the Army, is scheduled to suffer the most, with a
30 percent cut from over 700,000 members to about 500,000. For Fiscal Year 1991, the Senate wants the
numbers down by 100,000, while the House would like to wield the ax even more severely and cut
129,500 members of the active duty forces.4%

The number the Armed Forces must let go is only part of the story. The Department of Defense
(DoD) must also determine how it will make these force reductions without unnecessarily hurting the
balance of the force, not to mention the lives, careers, and morale of the officers and enlisted personnel
who voluntarily serve as members of the military services. The most noticeable impacts will be within
the enlisted ranks, since they comprise over 80 percent of active duty military personnel. There are over
six times as many enlisted personnel as officers. Except for the past few years, the number of yearly
incoming enlistees exceeded the total number of active duty officers.

In streamlining the enlisted ranks, the services will be compelled to cut recruiting, limit first-term
reenlistments, forcibly retire those with 20 or more years in service, and even “lay off” some career
personnel at a point between their first term and retirement. The precise blend of approaches will depend
on whether the Senate or the House reduction plan is adopted (or something in between or above either).

Numerical accession requirements started to decline even before the Eastern European turnaround
really got rolling, as shown in Table 1. FY 1989 accessions were only 90 percent of FY 1981 require-
ments. The programmed number for FY 1990 is down to about 73 percent of 1981 levels and 20 percent
leaner than the already smaller 1989 numbers. In fact, the figure for 1990 is down from the OBE (over-
come by events) 252,000 programmed in January of 1990. How low will DoD go? Again, nobody
knows or nobody’s telling for sure, but the cuts are expected to adversely affect minorities.

Table 1.—Non-prior service accessions to the active duty forces for Fiscal Years 1981-91

Accessions
Fiscal year (in thousands)
1981 304
1982 305
1983 303
1984 304
1985 301
1986 313
1987 296
1988 273
1989 278
1990 222*
1991 200

Source: FY 1981 through 1989 from Department of Defense, Population Representation in the Military Services

(Washington, DC: Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense [Force Management and Personnel], 1990, 1989, 1988,
1987, 1986).

* According to the Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense (Force Management and Personnel) this is the programmed

recruiting objective for FY 1990 and thus subject to quite a change. Through June of 1990, just three months before the
end of the fiscal year, the number of accessions totaled 145,669.

22

26



Appendix A of this paper contains a more detailed description of these steps.

Different types of competencies are associated with different aspects of human behavior and with the
ability to demonstrate such behavior. For example, an “influence” competency would be associated with
specific actic:.s, such as having an impact on others, convincing them to perform certain activities, and
inspiring them to work toward organizational objectives. A “planning” competency, on the other hand,
would be associated with specific actions such as setting goals, assessing risks, and developing a
sequence of actions to reach a goal. These two types of competencies involve different aspects of human
behavior.

The importance of competencies is often overlooked in favor of specialized job-related knowledge.
This is partly because skill and knowledge have a more observable effect on an individual's perfor-
mance. However, many scientists believe that although knowledge is important, it is as equally impor-
tant to focus on the competencies that allow employees to use the facts and concepts contained in the
knowledge. Known as the “iceberg” model, the skills and knowledges are only a small portion of the
characteristics that define successful performance (see Figure 2).

Figure 2.—The competency “iceberg” model

SOCIAL ROLE
SELF-IMAGE
TRAIT

MOTIVE

Competeacy Research

Using the theory and methods of Job Competency Assessment, a landmark study was conducted to
determine the competency profiles of effective managers, and io identify the variance of the profiles
across job level and between the public and private sectors.' These research results present a rare oppor-
tunity to look at the similarities and dif*er-nces in the competencies demonstrated by managers in each
sector, and to make some determinations about the training needs for civilian managers moving from the
public sector to the private sector. This research serves as the basis for discussing ways to identify
training/development needs, and is not meant to be a comprehensive survey of the sui-ject matter. It is
used only as an illustration of the recommended approach to this problem.

Over 2000 managers in 41 separate public and private sector organizations were studied. The analysis
was conducted in order to explain differences in performance as a result of certain competencies which
managers share. This study concluded that specific personal characteristics could be identified which

109

199



The Impact of Military Drawdowns
on Student Assistance Programs

Meredith Ludwig and Holly Hexter

Introduction

A planned reduction (called the “drawdown” or “downsizing” in the press) in the size of the active
duty forces of the U.S. armed services following shifting international political balances has generated
excitement and worry about the future of both the servicemembers who are released early and prospec-
tive military recruits—individuals who would have chosen the service but now find this option unavail-
able due to reductions in accession goals and more restrictive selection criteria.

The writing of this paper began with the question: How would such military drawdowns affect higher
education incentive and entitlement programs? The idea was that the demand on current federal student
aid programs (including specially directed programs for veterans and military personnel) would likely
increase when two events occurred concomitantly, producing new groups of prospective aid recipients.
Those events are (1) changes in the military selection and retention prosesses, and (2) decreases in
support from the military—for example, decreased tuition assistance funds and limits on “kicker”
programs such as the Army College Fund.

As the research for the paper progressed, however, it became clear that many in education and in the
military had not addressed the potential impact on either system. The approaches to shifting resources
and emphasis were being debated as the Persian Gulf conflict and war unfolded. Postsecondary institu-
tions enrolling large numbers of active duty servicemembers and those with a history of serving the
educationai goals of veterans re-examined enrollment projections. For its part, the military tumed its
attention to linking education more closely to the training experience and to long-term employment

preparation. Assistance resources and programs for members and their dependents were being viewed in
the framework of transition.

In addition, as late as December 23, 1990, senior nuiitary officials were questioning the possibility of
cutting the armed forces by the 25 percent promoted by the administration.’ For example, instead of
losing 40,000 troops as planned in an agreement with Congress, the Army was growing each month by
5,000—according to Atkinson—due to recruitment and a “stop-loss” order blocking retirements and
resignations that would maintain expected attrition levels.

Note: Meredith Ludwig is director of the Office of Association Research for the American Association of State Colleges
and Universities. Holly Hexter is a consultant specializing in higher education and public policy and formerly a policy
analyst with the American Council on Education. The authors gratefully acknowledge the assistance of representatives of
the Armed Forces, the Department of Defense, colleagues in higher education and congressional staff, and Laura Stapleton
(Research Associate AASCU) in the collection of data and preparation of the paper. The views in the paper are those of the
authors and do not represent the views of the American Association of State Colleges and Universities or its members.

167



Recruits

In the 1980s, the services raised entrance standards, increased military pay and other benefits, and
heavily promoted education benefits as part of a campaign to improve the caliber of military recruits.
The effort paid off in higher aptitude scores and education levels. Currently the services attract high
school graduates (92 percent of all recruits in Fiscal Year 1989), many of whom have aspirations to
continue their education. Today the services frequently cite support for education as the primary enlist-
ment motive, and their claims are bolstered by the high proportion of recruits who are participating in
the Montgomery GI Bill (see Appendix B, Table B-2).

Continued demand for education will depend upon military enlistment criteria and upon the social
composition of military recruits. Between 1990 and 1995, the military will be recruiting about 200,000
per year, compared with 289,000 in 1989. If current enlistment standards remain, one can assume that
these new recruits will be equally disposed to pursue postsecondary education. Lower recruiting quotas
could, however, make it possible for the services to become more selective and thus to admit more
young people with college goals. If, on the other hand, young people perceive fe-ver opportunities in the

military and snow less propensity to enlist, the caliber of military entrants and consequent demand
would be lowered.

The military’s own perspective, as voiced by several staff members, is that education benefits will
remain a crucial recruiting tool and that downsizing will require the services to recruit “smailer and
smarter.” Said one staff member, “As we recruit fewer people, we’re going to be able to draw more
people with educational aspirations.”

Personnel Who Are Separated and Their Families

Although the magnitude of effect is subject to debate, both military and higher education policy-
makers agree that the invoiuntary separations required in the drawdown will produce an influx of
military personnel and veterans into postsecondary education. One Air Force staff member likened the
impact to that of the end of the Vietnam War.

Among active duty enlisted personnel, those most likely to be separated are persons with eight years
of service or less, according to one analysis.’ In 1991 alone, involuntary separations could affect about
275,000 personnel in this category. Certainly their immediate concern will be jobs. To that end, those
with advance warning may hasten to complete a degree or to have their military experience translated
into college credit in order to validate the training they have received.

Aspirations for postsecondary education may be related to the number of years of service. While not
as much is known about the long-term effects of military service on life choices, we do know that
separatees are involved in education and training experiences to a great extent after leaving.

Andrew Kolstad used data from the National Longitudinal Study of the high school class of 1972 to
identify the timing of enrollment in postsecondary education for males who graduated from high school
in 1972 and had entered the military by 1979. One finding of Kolstad’s analysis was that more than 50
percent of the male veterans eligible for GI Bill benefits were enrolled in a postsecondary education
program within 1 year after leaving the military. When Kolstad looked 5 years out, he found almost 75
percent of benefits-eligible veterans had attended a postsecondary program at one time or another*

The 1985 Army experience survey of recently separated first-term soldiers found that many leave the
service because of a perceived inability to receive desired education and/or skills training. Sixty percent
of those who rated the Army as not valuable listed their inability to get job fulfillment, training and/or
the education they wanted as reasons for not being content with Army service.5

170

1A9



Table 1.—Representation of race/ethnicity in FY 1989 accessions, by dervice, and civilians 18- to
24-years-old (Percent)

Race/ethnic group Army Navy Marine Corps Air Force 18- to 24-year-old civilians

White 68 73 14 84 82
Black 26 22 18 12 14
Other 6 5 8 4 4
Hispanic 6 8 7 3 I
Non-Hispanic 94 92 93 97 89

Source: Department of Defense, Population Representation in the Military Services, Fiscal Year 1989.

As postsecondary education contemplates projections of declines in the number of high school
graduates and in college enrollments for the next five years, it may well ask itself if the “newly un-
qualified” could be replacements for the expected declines. In the four academic years (1991-1994) the
number of male students is expected to decrease by about 81,000 students. Female participants are
expected to increase by about 17,000 over the same period.

Table 2.—Higher education enrollment, fall 1988 to fall 1994 (in thousands)

Total Men Women
Actual 1988 13,043 5,998 7,045
Forecasted 1989 13,419 6,260 7,159
1990 13,558 6,292 7,266
1991 13,643 6,309 7,334
1992 13,613 6,276 7,337
1993 13,597 6,254 7,343
1994 13,579 6,228 7,351

Note: Projections of enrollments in institutions of higher education were developed by means of the National Center for
Education Statistics (NCES) Interactive Forecasting Model (IFMOD). This is described by NCES as an age-specific
enrollment rate model. Since these forecasts were released in September 1990, NCES has revised the enrollment numbers
from 1991 through the decade, adding almost 500,000 to the total number enrolled in higher education and changing the
direction upward. See the newest volume in its projections series, Projections of Education Statistics to 2602.

According to National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) forecasts published in 1990, the
biggest drops in the number of high school graduates (the pool of traditional new recruits and new first-
time freshmen) may have already occurred. There were 7 percent fewer high school graduates expected
between 1988-89 and 1989-90 and 4 percent fewer between 1989-90 and 1990-91. The rate of decrease
of 4 percent (forecast by NCES from 1989-90 to 1993-94) is clearly more gradual.

.
ct

pra



Notes

1W.S. Sellman, The Role of the Military Psychologist in the Development of National Manpower Policy (Presidential
address before the Military Psychology Division of the American Psychological Association, Boston, MA: August 1990).

Ibid.

%Gordon Adams and Stephen Alexis Cain, “Yes, We Still Need Defense Cuts,” The Washington Post, 9 September 1990:
D-2.

“Sellman, The Role of the Military Psychologist.

SAs an update, it should be noted that because of Desert Shield, Secretary of Defense Chaney asked the Congress to modify
the FY 1991 end-strength reduction from the numbers originally marked in the House a’ 4 Senate versions of the DoD
Authorization Bill. As a result of that request, in the final version of the Authorization enacted by Congress (PL-101-510),
end-strength reductions were in fact set at 80,000 for this fiscal year.

‘Richard Halloran, “Blacks and Women Find Roads for Advancement Through Life in Military,” Tie New York Times,
26 August 1986: B-24.

During this period, there was a scoring error in the newly implemented Armed Services Vocetional Aptitude Battery
(ASVAB) resulting in the enlistment of hundreds of thousands of low-scoring applicants, many of whom would not have
even qualified for service entry had the test been scored correctly.

*See U.S. Department of Defense, Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense [Force Management and Personnel],
Population Representation in the Military Services, Fisca! Year 1989 (Washington, DC: July 1990), A-4.

"Ibid.

‘Though in the general population, education levels of blacks trail whites (e.g., 86 percent of 18to 24-year-old whites are
high school diploma graduates compared with 83 percent comparable blacks), in the military the opposite is true. This
finding is partially attributeble to enlistment standards that vary by level of education. Non-graduates must meet higher
standards, which may eliminate many black youth without a diploma.

"For a discussion of this trend and data up to 1981, see Martin Binkin and Mark J. Bitelberg with Alvin J. Schexseider and
Marvin M. Smith, Blacks and the Military (Washington, DC: The Brookings Institution, 1982). For subsequent sata see
U.S. Department of Defense, Population Representation.

"2 The topic of minority representation or overrepresentation in the military has received considerable attention. To some,
overrepresentation is viewed positively, given the opportunities available in service. Others suggest that overrepresentation
is deletorious to military cohesion and unfair to minorities who would bear too big a burdcn in time of war. For a
discussion of these issues, see Binkin and Eitelberg, Blacks and the Military.

Mark J. Eitelberg, War or Welfare: The Military as an Agent of Social Change (paper presented at the Biennial
Conference of the Inter-University Seminar on Armed Forces and Society, Baltimore, October 1989).

“Charles C. Moskos, “Success Story: Blacks in the Army,” The Atlantic Monthly (May 1986) 65.

‘sLawrence J. Korb, “The Pentagon's Perspective,” in Who Defends America? Race, Sex, and Class in the Armed Forces,
ed. Edwin Dorn (Washington, DC: Joint Center for Political Studies Press, 1985) 23.

‘For more details on pay and allowances as well as other benefits see U.S. Department of Defense, Military Career Paths,
(North Chicago: U.S. Military Entrance Processing Command, 1989).

34



to be granted for general education, physical education, or specific elective credit. Very few credits were
applied toward the requirements in the major by any institution.

Campus contacts identified problems in the process of granting credit: difficulty in interpreting
military transcript information, college policies restricting military training or basic training from being
transferred as college credit, the separation of nontraditional learning from the regular transcript process,
and the uneven distribution of information needed for the transfer process for all prospective students.'*

Servicemembers Opportunity Colleges

For servicemembers participating in voluntary education while on active duty, the Servicemembers
Opportunity Colleges (SOC) was established to smooth the process of transfer of credits and achieve-
ment of the degree goal. SOC is a series of networks of 2- and 4-year colleges that provides an extra
layer of protection for the servicemember. SOC promotes a standardization of institutional policies and
practices that seek to improve the transfer process. This is achieved by setting principles of credit
acceptance and course equivalencies within the perspective of the traditional degree plan. Institutions
agree to accept equivalent credit from military-sponsored education and training within these guidelines
and students are informed about the likelihood of acceptance and applicability. SOC networks are

organized around discipline requirements which help to mitigate the problems of most servicemembers
in transferring credit for the major.

Army/ACE Education Registry Transcript System

Another tool used by the military servicemember to improve transferability of credits is the Army/
ACE Education Registry Transcript System (AARTS). AARTS is a standardized form describing the
servicemember’s educational history and providing the details of evaluation and credit needed by college
and university personnel to award, transfer, or apply credits to collegiate programs. Military separatecs
leave the service with a number of different documents. In the study of articulation and transfer prob-
lems, those interviewed on campus praised the AARTS transcript as the most useful document for the
applicatic; process.

Reserve Officers Training Corps

Higher education has had a longstanding relationship with the military services in the training of
prospective officers. The Reserve Officers Training Corps (ROTC) has substantial representation among
4-year institutions. ROTC scholarships allow individual students to attend a traditional college to study
military science as well as a discipline. When the drawdown news started to spread, there was specula-
tion about the aspects of the military support systems most likely to be affected. Some hypothesized that
ROTC scholarships would be eliminated completely.

In the past year, 50 units have in fact been closed, 26 of them at state colleges and universities. Trying
to gauge the impact of these closings on the enrollment in the institutions is difficult. Telephone calls to
the institutions resulted in some information about the different ways they plan to adjust to the loss or
threatened loss of support.

Compression of years of study is one response to the anticipated loss of scholarships. Another is
transfer to another institution. Students who transfer will not lose their scholarships. The Department of
Defense has indicated it would pay additional course credit costs involved with such transfers. In a few
cases, ROTC students have indicated they will stay at their current institution and abandon the scholar-
ship. So far, the closed programs will not affect large numbers of students. However, the loss of revenue
and enrollments, especially of first-time freshmen, will not be insignificant for the colleges involved.

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groups tend to reflect mistrust of retention systems based on performance and typically demand the
application of seniority-based systems. Again, the relationship between this decision-making process
and performance or competency is likely to be very small.

The implication of this information is that many competent people will be available for employment
in the job market from both the private and the public sectors. These individuals will possess different
types and levels of knowledge, skills, experience, and competencies. Unfortunately, it is likely that their
potential for success in specific pcsitions would only be measured in terms of their formal training or
work experience to the extent that it matches other jobs according to sector or job level. As discussed in
this paper, however, performance potential may have more to do with the possession of relevant job
competencies than with educational credentials or specific job experience. Many individuals can there-
for make successful transitions across job function, level, or sector, if competency criteria are included
in the decision-making process.

Adjustments in the demonstration of competencies required as one moves from job to job, industry
to industry, or public to private sector, however, are more than will occur simply because someone is
handed a new job description. Further, traditional education in management rarely reflects differences in
the industry, job level, or sector objectives. An alternative approach is to use competency-based training

programs, with knowledge-based educational programs as a foundation, to train, d velop, and transition
managers across jobs.

The theory and methods of appiying competency-based training is more complex than are knowledge-
based training approaches. It requires a multi-method approach, incorporating several processes depen-
dent on the nature of the competency and the particular individual. The general steps for developing

competency-based training for manager competencies are presented in Table 4, and discussed in further
detail in the paragraphs that follow.

Table 4.—Competency-based training process

1, Conduct a competency needs assessment
2. Determine the trainability of needed competencies
3. Identify the needed methods and exercises for training

4. Implement competency acquisition

5. Reinforce the learning cycle

Step 1. Competency Needs Assessment

The competency “gaps” of managers transitioning from the public sector to the private sector have
been presented in earlier sections of this paper. Competencies represented in Table 2 as important to
managerial performance, and demonstrated at higher skill levels in the private sector, are included.
These serve as the basis of the training needs assessment.

119

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Table 1.—Descriptive statistics

Frequency distributions (% in parentheses)

Age 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54

368 787 937 275 21

(15) (33) (39) (12) qd)
Years of service 1-2 3-5 6-10 11-15

919 1183 258 28

(39) (50) ql) qd)

Means (standard deviation in parentheses)
Demographics
Grade completed at entry 12.5 Receive any 0.63
(1.8) Financial aid
Highest grade completed 14.0 Receive any 0.063
(2.1) Federal aid
Schooling increased 0.61 Use the GI Bill 0.55
All races other than white 0.12 Use the VEAP 0.020
Married at entry O11 Use other VA assistance 0.033
Married 0.75 Use any VA assistance 0.57
Military and VA Labor Market
Vietnam era service 0.95 Full-time worker 0.91
Early AVF service 0.16 Health
affects work 0.085
Drafted 0.25 1986 earnings 28,468
(19,520)
Officer (commissioned or warrant) 0.09
Program usage and training since discharge
Used any education or training 0.78 Attended college/grad school 0.52
Since discharge (other than Received voc/tech training 0.22
vocational rehabilitation) Received OJT/apprentice 0.18
Partic. in corresp. course 0.06

Attended/completed high school 0.03 Farm, flight, tutor, other 0.07

Notes: Sample from 1987 survey of veterans (SOV-III), men who served in the Vietnam era (8/5/64-5/7/75) or the early
AVF (5/8/75-9/7/80) with at least 9 years of schooling at entry to service and a non-negative increment since entering the

service. Sample restricted to men aged 30-54 in 1987, with 1-15 years of active duty service. Of the 3337 SOV-III veterans
with any Vietnam-era or later service, 2388 met these sample criteria.

200

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Table 3.—Private nonagricultural employment attributable to Vietnam War

Vietnam-attributed employment in fiscal year Change in total employment,
1968 1968 III to 1970 DI
Industry i
Number Fereent | Pecentof weit | “Charge it] percentage
perwent ue
(thousands) distribution emplo A (thou: ) Change
Total*.. 1,392.5 100.0 2.4 1.684 3.0
Manufacturing... 948.1 68.1 49 493 -2.5
Ordance and accessories. 140.3 10.1 423 -103 30.2
Aircraft and parts. 232.6 16.7 27.3 -187 “219
Machine shop product 32.8 24 14.4 7 3.2
Radio, television. and
communicatios
equipment.. 73.9 5.3 a. +52 7.7
414 3.0 hl -38 15.0
equir nent... 20.1 1.4 6.7 4 13
57.0 4.1 44 7 -5
350.0 25.1 23 -103 .7
Services. 412.6 29.6 33 2.164 6.6
164.8 11.8 6.2 21 3&8
49.8 3.6 2.3 232 10.2
34.6 25 7 724 14.2
163.4 117 38 1,187 5.2
14.7 La Ss 9 3
71 12 2.8 4 6

*Includes wage and salary employment; excludes self-employed
Source: Department of Labor

In addition to former defense workers, the nation’s employment pool was swelled by returning
servicemen armed with military-related training that was of little use in a peacetime economy in the
midst of a difficult transition from the war. Issues of how to manage industry conversion, including
manpower conversion, became increasingly important as policymakers turned their attention to stabil-
izing the economy. In 1971, the Senate Committee on Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs, Subcom-
mittee on Production and Stabilization, heard testimony on the issue of diversification into non-defense
work by defense contractors. This hearing, which outlined the economic factors that had led to worker
displacement, presented issues relating to the Conversion Assistance Corporation Bill, which proposed
loan guarantees and management assistance to companies willing to diversify into commercial busi-
nesses. In addition, the changing demands placed on industry caused federal, state and local govern-

ments, private industry, and academia to identify ways to convert an obsolete part of the economy into a
more commercially viable industrial base.

This nationai-!evel emphasis on conversion could not be translated into successes within affected
communities. Federal, state and local authorities often found that the impact of defense cutbacks on
communities was heightened by the extreme difficulty of converting facilities and adapting peoples’
skills to non-defense applications. A primary cause of this difficulty was the increasingly specialized
nature of defense work, which discouraged conversion to commercial purposes. The f2w efforts at

140
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BEST COPY AVAILABLE



The results of the 1990 budget reconciliation provide evidence that Congress is examining some
responses to the concerns raised about past investment and future flexibility. First, federal funds for
student aid programs would increase by 10 percent. The total Pell award is now $2,400 and could be
increased in the appropriations process. In the fall of 1990, 90 percent of new money was slated for the
Pell program. (20)

Other results of the budget process for Title IV programs: Institutions would have increased flexibility
to refuse to approve loans; the Supplemental Educational Opportunity Grant will increase by 13.4
percent; Perkins loan program would increase by 15 percent; State Student Incentive Grant would
receive a 7.3 percent increase in financing; TRIO programs (Upward Bound, Talent Search, and Educa-
tional Opportunity Centers) for disadvantaged high school students and academic preparation preceding
higher education are expected to be the beneficiary of a 38 percent increase in funds.

As the discussions os. the reauthorization of the Higher Education Act continue, higher education
Officials are working with Congress on some proposals to increase the impact of this aid on higher
education participation, retention, and completion. They are looking at current program requirements to
ensure that economically disadvantaged students will obtain more adequate grant assistance without
undue dependence on loans. They are also examining ways to help older students. Additional proposals
deal with establishing higher awards and loan limits for programs leading to an associate degree (or
higher degrees), emphasizing pre-college TRIO programs, and extending loan repayment options such as
income contingent loans.

Other Prospects for Education and Training

Federal student assistance programs will not be the only or the best route to postsecondary education
and employment for all the populations to be affected by the planned drawdown. Only a certain percent-
age of students will use these in traditional higher education institutions. Others will find apprenticeship

programs and shorter educational experiences more appropriate to their educational preparation and
vocational interests.

A larger proportion of the “newly unqualified” would be attracted to postsecondary education if
greater emphasis were given to precollege information, advisement, and mentoring programs.

The benefits of a college education are well-touted: higher earnings, more demand by business, and
lower unemploymeni rates. Half of the nation’s workforce who are operators, fabricators, and laborers
have a high school diploma. However, these occupations are only expected to grow by 1 percent be-
tween 1988 and 2000.” Significantly, blacks and Hispanics are currently 18 percent of the workforce.
This proportion will grow to 22 percent by the year 2000. At the same time, these race and ethnic groups
are underrepresented in the number of bachelor’s degree recipients and have lower college participation
rates than whites.

Higher education is not the only or the most important alternative for high school graduates. Multiple
action programs supported by the U.S. government, by private corporations, by community organiza-
tions, and by individual states make a substantial contribution to the integration of youth into the
workforce and later into postsecondary education. However, as currently supported, these programs
reach only a fraction of those who need them as an alternative. The William T. Grant Foundation
supported a landmark report in 1988 called Non-College Youth in America. The report illustrates the
kinds of school-to-work educational opportunities which might be relevant to community and individual
needs, In the category of monitored work experience, it explored cooperative education, iaternships,
apprenticeships, pre-employment training, and youth-operated enterprises. In the area of community and

neighborhood service, it examined the potential of individual voluntary service and youth-guided
services.

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In prepared congressional testimony, July 12, 1990, the Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary of
Defense for Force Management and Personnel stated that the Montgomery GI Bill (MBIB) “provides the
principal incentive for high quality applicants who would not otherwise enlist, to join the military.”
(McKeman 1990, 4). She described the Montgomery GI Bill as a “system”:

The MGIB system is a continuum of activity from the time prospective recruits first learn
about the benefit at the recruiting office, through the briefing when they enter active duty and
elect to participate, to the formal out-brief when the individuals separate or retire. During the
separation counseling, the Montgomery GI Bill is discussed with the departing member, at
which time they are encouraged to use the education benefit. The DVA (Department of
Veteran Affairs) then sends additional materials further explaining the MGIB educational
benefit program. (McKernan 1990, 6)

The high participation rates noted above show how many young men and women contribute to the
fund, presumably with some hopes to use it and go to college later in life. It is early to draw firm con-
clusions, since the first veterans eligible left military service only two years ago, but the initial rates of
utilization of the GI Bill seem low. (Only about 10 percent of those separated from active duty and
eligible for Chapter 30 benefits had begun to use them by early 1990.) Programs that encourage veter-
ans to use their benefits, and the fuiids iney in fact have contributed, are needed and in the national
interest. Among other things, vizorous voluntary education programs while the servicemember is on
active duty whet appetites and start future veterans on the right track. Programs aimed at encouraging
education in the National Guarc: and Reserves, where many veterans serve, can help. Programs are
needed that recognize that the veteran is a “nontraditional” student with a particular kind of experience—
military experience— that should ue blended into the education the veteran chooses to pursue. DoD
considers the use of the Montgomery GI Bill benefits to be “particularly important to the Service men
and women who will be involuntarily separated during the drawdown of the Armed Forces”
(McKernan 1990, 6).

The Department of Veterans Affairs administers the Montgomery GI Bill program and funds the basic
benefits package. The individual military services pay for any “kickers” serving as additional educa-
tional incentive packages. The Montgomery GI Bill and other incentive programs do not provide for in-
service education management and counseling services. Benefits are not available to servicemembers
during their first term of service.

Education incentive programs do not relieve the military services of their responsibility for funding of
education center operations and tuition assistance for in-service personnel. In essence, the education
incentive programs are designed to attract quality, education-oriented young people into the military
with the promise that specific benefits will become available once the servicemember becomes a veteran
and goes to college. Education while the servicemember is on active duty remains a function of the
separate military service, which must provide for this support in terms of tuition assistance, education
staff personnel (education services officers, specialists, and counselors), and availability of quality
educational programs.

In-Service Education Center Operations

Organization and administrative structure for in-service voluntary education programs is provided at
on-base education centers. For example, college programs are administered in the Army by 241 Army
education centers and 391 Army learning centers operated around the world on such U.S. Army installa-
tions as posts, bases, camps, and stations and in communities in Europe. These Army education centers
are staffed with approximately 1,350 Department of the Army civilian personnel of whom more than
450 are education guidance counselors who provide the principal management and administration of
voluntary education programs and support services. The Education Services Officers (ESOs) within
Army Education Centers located in the continental United States are responsible for selecting colleges to

59
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Table 3—Job sector demands

Competency
Public Sector Private Sector Impacted
Greater functional integration; Greater access to performance Efficiency ori-
fewer "hard" measures of feedback and specific measures entation
performance and prodt “tivity of productivity, Le., profit, market Proactivity
share, scrap waste Pattern Recog
Less opportunity for individual, Less formalization; more oppor- Proactivity
unilateral change; more bureau- tunity to establish goals and Conceptualiza-
cratic obstacles. plans, and to solve problems tion

More standard operating proced-
ures and detailed policies and reg-
ulations; higher routinization

Fewer policies and standardized
procedures; less routinization;
greater need to make strategic
decisions; access to a greater
amount and variety of information

Pattern recog.
Conceptualiza-
tion

Less opportunity to symbolically
assert one's status

More access to symbols of power

Concern for
impacting
others

More constraints and greater
organizational screening of oral
presentations

Frequent presentations to multiple
levels within organization

Oral presenta-
tion skills

More rotation of personne! and
higher privacy concerns; less unity
due to a system of checks and balances

Greater opportunity to build
group identity, pride, and team
spirit

Competency Requirement Similarities

Managing
group pro-

Several competencies within the Leadership and Focusing on Others clusters were demonstrated with
equal importance (or lack of importance) in the private and public sectors.

Leadership Cluster

Within the Leadership cluster, both self-confidence and logical thinking appear to be equally stimu-
lated and demanded of public and private sector managers. Of these, only self-confidence distinguishes
superior performance from average performance, particularly in executive level management positions,
in both sectors. Apparently, the requirement to express that they know what they are doing with presence
and decisiveness is required of high-level managers regardless cf sector. It is possible that being in an
executive position per se provides a person with a certain amount of prestige that contributes to an
ability to inspire others. However, the fact that a strong relationship exists between superior perfor-
mance and self-confidence in voth sectors suggests that prestige derived solely from position is not

enough to create this effect.

Logical thinking, on the other hand, functions as a threshold competency in both the private and
public sectors. In both cases, no more of the competency is demonstrated by superior performers than by

average performers.

116

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Congress, in the Bush administration, or DoD. Yet budgetary constrainis are real and place limits on
how personnel involved in RIF actions are compensated. Follow-through on postsecondary education
opportunities seems to warrant high priority in any transition assistance program. Yet personal and
family considerations must be resolved so that veterans can realistically be expected to go to college
either part-time or full-time. The reputation of DVA in administrating the educational assistance pro-
grams can be a factor in a veteran deciding if he or she can participate in a college program. Pre-separa-
tion counseling and readily available assistance through DVA and at colleges and universities can help.
Perhaps a key to the question of “fair treatment” is the perception that people in the military, in DVA, in
Congress, and in the colleges do, in fact, really care about servicemembers in transition and that they are
striving for their best treatment possible. Keep in ~ind that career-minded servicemembers often place
high value on being recognized for jobs well done. A viable education assistance program can serve as a
reward for their past efforts as well as help them prepare for new careers.

Conclusions

Thousands of servicemembers transition out of the military each year. Those career-minded soldiers,
sailors, marines, and airmen separated involuntarily through reduction-in-force actions call for some
additional transition assistance considerations in a build-down of U.S. military forces. A high percentage

of these individuals are college-capable. Many are minorities. Most enlisted personnel do not have
college degrees.

Build-down scenarios vary greatly. In the o, timal build-down, normal attritions would dominate and
reduction-in-force actions would be minimal. However, budgetary constraints may demand deeper cuts,
causing substantial reductions-in-force.

DoD has a substantial voluntary education program available in all its military services, at a cost of
$175 million in the 1989 DoD budget. Over 523,000 individual enrollments in undergraduate courses
occurred during that fiscal year.

The Tuition Assistance Program within DoD and educational incentives programs administered by
DVA provide the necessary fiscal resources for individuals to go to college. On-base education center
staff and supporting colleges and universities provide postsecondary education programs and services.
SOC, CCAF, and DANTES assist in blending nontraditional and traditional education into degree
programs achievable by servicemembers and veterans. These degrees are recognized not only in the
military but also in the civilian sector and by the higher education community.

Over 700 colleges and universities have dedicated themselves to support servicemembers and veterans
by subscribing to SOC Principles and Criteria. These institutions follow liberal transfer-of-credit
policies, limit institutional residency, award credit based on learning achieved through military service
schools and on-the-job experience, and award credit based on at least one nationally recognized aca-
demic testing system.

Education and training assistance has traditionally been provided servicemembers undergoing demo-
bilization and RIF as possible under prevailing circumstances. The Army had a transition management
program (never fully implemented) in the mid-1980s and has the newly instituted Army Career and
Alumni Program (ACAP). Army transition counseling procedures are outlined in detail in Army Regula-
tion 621-5. Education transition assistance is being conducted by various means in local Army education

centers. Other services also have initiatives in education transition assistance, Mandatory pre-separation
counseling occurs in all services.

The Department of Veterans Affairs has a critical role in administering educational assistance pro-

grams, Veteran coordinators and advisers at colleges and universities with DVA-app, oved educational
programs are valuable resources for the transitioning veteran.

77



Table 6.—Number and percentage of active duty enlisted personnel by occupational area within
race-ethnicity groups (as of June 30, 1990)

Race-ethnicity

Occupational White Black Hispanic Other! Total
area N % N % N % N % N %
0-Infantry, guncrews

& seamanship 199,463 17.0 70,860 17.7 16,234 18.9 11,914 15.4 298,471 ‘17.2
1-Blectronic

equipment repair 137,789 11.7 21,563 5.4 6,878 8.0 5,052 6.5 171,282 99
2-Communications &

intelligence 118,277 10.1 40,674 10.2 7,419 8.6 4,935 6.4 171,305 9.9
3-Health care 59,565 5.1 26,662 6.7 5,857 68 6,339 8.2 98,423 5.7
4-Other technical

& allied 29,807 2.5 8,202 21 1,634 19 1,534 2.0 41,177 2.4

5-Functional support

& administration 149,554 12.7 93,482 23.4 14,774 17.2,—s«15,541 20.1. -273,351—15.7

6-Electrical/mechnanical

equipment repair 262,218 22.3. 59,909 15.0 16,004 186 17.081 221 355,212 20.4

7-Craftsmen 52,121 4.4 11,282 28 «2,960 3.43126. 4.0 69,489 4.0

8-Service & supply 94,435 8.0 47,187 118 = 6.761 7.9 8,141 10.5 «156,524 9.0

9-Non-occupational’ 71,324 6.1 20,092 5.0 7,298 «= 853,545 4.6 102,259 5.9
Total 1,174,553 100 399,913 100 85,819 -100-—77,208»=—«:100 «1,737,493 100

Source: Defense Manpower Data Center, Arlington, VA.

‘Other includes such categories as American Indians, Alaskan natives, Asians and Pacific Islanders.

Includes patients, prisoners, officer candidates and students, persons serving in endesignated or special occupations, and
those in basic or occupational training.

Using the Senate scenario of reducing end strength by 100,000 personnel in FY 1991, what will be
the impact on minorities? Assuming that DoD would indeed reduce incoming recruits to 200,000
(compared to close to 300,000 accessions per year in recent times), forcibly retire those with 20 plus
years, and cut those in the first term primarily, the distribution of the 300,000 to be cut from the current
enlisted level (remember 200,000 had to be added due to accession levels) across tenure groups might
look something like this:

Years Number cut
14 195,000
5-8 80,000
9-16 0
17+ 25,000

If the cuts are proportional to the race-ethnicity distributions within these tenure points, then the result-
ing FY 1991 downsizing might affect whites, blacks, Hispanics, and others as follows:

Race-ethnicity Number cut Percentage decrease
White 206,328 17.6
Black 66,253 16.6
Hispanic 15,211 17.7
Other 12,208 15.8
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10%

GAS METAL ARC WELDING

Set-uO anc snut Ccwn ct ecuicment, princicles of overation, techniques,
electroce and wire sizes, power sources, snieiding gases.

14% GAS TUNGSTEN ARC WELDING ;
Set-up and operation of equicment, filler metals, electrode installation, requiators
and flow meters, torches and torch angles, electrodes, welding common metals.

WELDING
PERFORMANCE TEST
TIME: 4 Hours

PERCENT

OF TEST

27% SHIELDED METAL ARC WELDING .
Set-up of material to be welded. Current and rod selection. Set-up of welding,
test, and grinding equipment. Weld in various positions.

26%  OXY-FUEL WELDING
Set-up of materials to be welded. Adjustment of equipment and torch. Testing
of welds. Welds in the various positions. Set-up of equipment. Preparation of
material for brazing and cutting. Selection cf correct tips, flux, and rods.

28% GAS METAL ARC WELDING
Set-up of equipment. Preparation and set-up cf materials. Selection of rods.
Welds in the various positions.

18% GAS TUNGSTEN ARC WELDING
Set-up of equipment. Preparation and set-up of material. Selection of rods.
Welds in the various pesitions.
PREPARATION: Fersonal taals may be used. Appropriate work clothes and
safety equipment are to be furnished by the candidate: shoes, welding gloves
and apron, welding hood and brazing goggles. A calculator may be used for
both the written and performance examinations.

BEST G2PY AVAILABLE
a3ce %6

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are almost twice as likely to be black as are all recruits. Members of other racial minority groups are also
heavily represented among the unqualified, when compared to their representation in the youth popula-
tion. In all, about half of the newly unqualified are members of a racial minority.

Table 3.—Race of selected military and civilian populations

Race Newly unqualified FY 1989 recruits Civilians 18 to 24
White 51 73 82
Black 41 22 14
Other 8 5 4
Total 100 100 100

The proportion of Hispanic youth among the newly unqualified is a little lower than in the youth
population (see Table 4). Some 9 percent of the unqualified are Hispanic, as compared to 11 percent of
civilian youth aged 18 to 24. This relatively low representation occurs because Hispanic youth are
underrepresented among recruits in general; in FY 1989, only 6 percent of recruits were Hispanic. The
proportion of Hispanics among the newly unqualified is higher than among all recruits because Hispanic
youth do not score as well as non-Hispanics on the AFQT test.

Table 4.—Hispanic/Non-Hispanic background of selected military and civilian populations

Hispanic/Non-Hispanic | Newly unqualified FY 1989 recruits Civilians 18 to 24
Hispanic 9 6 1
Non-Hispanic 91 94 89
Total 100 100 100

Combining Hispanics of all races with others who are not white, we find that the majority (53 per-

cent) of the newly unqualified are members of racial or ethnic minority groups, while only 47 percent
are non-Hispanic whites.”

Tested Aptitude

The military services use the Armed Services Vocational Aptitude Battery (ASVAB) to determine the
enlistment eligibility of applicants and to assign qualified recruits to military jobs. The AS VAB consists
of 10 subtests that measure arithmetic reasoning, numerical operations, mathematical knowledge, word
knowledge, raragraph comprehension, coding speed, general science, mechanical comprehension,
electronic information, and automotive shop information. The test has been empirically validated as a
predictor of performance in training courses and in military occupations.

Four of the ASVAB subtests (arithmetic reasoning, numerical operations, word knowledge, and
paragraph comprehension) are combined to produce the Armed Forces Qualification Test (AFQT). The
AFOQT scores are usually grouped inty five broad categories based on the percentile score ranges shown
in Table 5. Applicants in Category I, the 93rd through 100th percentiles, constitute the to> 8 percent of
test takers, Those in Category II, the next 28 percent, fall in the 65th to 92nd percentile range. The top
two categories are considered “well above average.” Category III represents “average” trainability and is
made up of the middle 34 percent of test takers, those in the 31st through the 64th percentile range.
(The Army currently sorts Category III into two subcategories: IIIA includes percentile scores from 50
through 64 and IIIB includes percentile scores from 31 through 49.) At the lower end of the scale are



Preliminary data indicate that most eligible servicemembers returning to civilian life are not going to
college and using their Montgomery GI Bill entitlements. A strong advocate for postsecondary education
is needed to encourage veterans to go to college and use their educational benefits.

Several possible approaches can be taken to energize education transition assistance. One is for DVA
to assume an advocacy role for veterans by taking necessary actions needed to promote college partici-
pation among veterans and develop an environment that encourages returning veterans to attend school.
A second approach is for DoD to assume that primary advocacy role. The third is for DVA and DoD to
jointly head a national task force to develop and implement initiatives that coordinate education transi-
tion assistance and promote a highly positive environment encouraging veterans to participate in college
and complete their degree programs while beginning productive careers in their civilian lives.

issues that influence education transition assistance are complex and intertwined. For example,
sufficient numbers of well-qualified education counselors providing transition counseling are absolutely
essential to accomplish the mission. But in times of severe budget constraints, que ‘tions arise regarding
use of in-service education resources and whether it is appropriate to use those resources for
servicemembers leaving the service. Perhaps these scarce funds should be used only to support military
training and itary job performance. Perhaps adult and continuing education could be left up to the
states and localities where veterans will go once they leave the military. Many servicemembers came
into the military based on promises that the military would facilitate their opportunities for education
and training. What ethical and moral considerations compel the military and the federal government in
general to fulfill military recruitment promises and servicemember expectations raised by those prom-
ises? Finally what constitutes “fair treatment” regarding the education of servicemembers involved in a
reduction-in-force?

Recommendations

1. Establish a task force jointly headed by DoD and DVA to develop and implement initiatives that
coordinate education transition assistance and promote a highly positive environment encourag-
ing veterans to participate in college and complete their degree programs while beginning their
careers as civilians.

2. Plan and budget for the necessary education transition services needed for in-service implemen-
tation. OSD should take the lead on this. Military commanders should be made fully aware that
education transition assistance for departing servicemembers is a highly visible part of the mili-
tary mission. of each service. DVA should take similar actions for post-service implementation.
Congress, with the help of the higher education community, needs to support these budget
requests and demand implementation of services. The General Accounting Office and the DoD
auditing services should ensure compliance.

3. Establish a consortium of “SOC transition colleges,” sponsored by DoD, DVA, and higher
education associations. SOC should develop a transition guide as part of its efforts to assist
counselors and to extend the SOC model to veterans.

4. Ensure that DoD, DVA, and supporting colleges and universities provide a caring attitude for
servicemembers returning to civilian life by actively reaching out to them within their spheres of
influence and offering them assistance, however limited by fiscal and personnel deficiencies.

8



It is the policy of NOCTI to continue to develop occupational competency measures in accordance
with resources available and in line with the standards for educational and psychological tests. In this
regard, all tests and support materials are periodically reviewed and revised as needed. In addition,
studies are continuously underway with a number of states to expand the test titles available through the
NOCTI national program.

Figure 1.—Conceptuai model of progress from MOS training to civilian occupation via NOCTI
testing

Occupational Competency
Additional
Training/
Education
Military Occupational Military Occupation |—NOCTI Occupational _ Civilian
Specialty (MOS) Training Spacialty Experience Competency Examination Occupation
t TOCT/SOCAT

A Model of NOCTI Application to the Transition Process

Figure 1 is a simple conceptual model illustrating how NOCTI examinations could be used to deter-
mine whether military personnel possess the skiils necessary for employment in a civilian occupational
similar to their military occupation or if further training/education is necessary for occupational compe-
tency. Full appreciation of the model requires examination of each of its components in greater detail.

Occupational Competency

It is essential to take a holistic approach as we attempt to examine the occupational conipetency of
military personnel or any person fuactioning in an occupational field. Occupational competency is an
outcome of two very important components: training/education and experience. Simply attempting to
assess the content of the training/education an individual has received is not enough. Many new skills
are learned through experience, while existing skills are refined or expanded. For example, experience
often yields greater speed. With speed comes better productivity, which is essential to the very survival
of America’s business and industry. In assessing occupational competency today it is therefore crucial
that individuals be given the opportunity not only to show what they know or what they have done, but
also to demonstrate their acquired manipulative skills.

Occupational speciality training in the military in many cases is very similar to occupational training
in a like civilian field. For example, automotive service training whether in the military or not encom-

passes working on the same types of vehicles and therefore requires the same skills. Likewise, the
experience and skill-refining which takes place in the military is equally valuable in the civilian sector.

84

8%



Cutting Recruits:
A Profile of the Newly Unqualified

David Boesel

Introduction

As the military threat from the Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact recedes, U.S. national priorities are
shifting. It seems likely that in the long run a smaller share of the nation’s resources will be required to
defend its security and vital interests, allowing more to be devoted to much-needed investments in
education, infrastructure, and other essentials of economic revitalization. The defense budget is being
reduced, and administration plans envision continuing reductions through Fiscal Year 1995. An integral
part of this reduction is a drawdown of the Department of Defense (DOD) workforce, including 2
million active duty military members and | million civilian employees.

A 25 percent cutback in the number of both military and DoD civilian personnel is anticipated over
the next 5 years—about 500,000 active duty military members and 250,000 civilian personnel. Most of
this cutback will not involve the involuntary removal of people already in the military or in the civilian
workforce, Rather, it will be handled primarily by reductions in hiring, normal attrition, and incentives
to leave, such as early retirement. Job losses will constitute a relatively small proportion of the drawdown.

The greater problem is that the nation’s largest employer is retrenching and that over 5 years three-
quarters of a million people—approximately 150,000 per year—will have to find jobs elsewhere.
(These estimates do not include the cutbacks in defense industries, the secondary effects of military base
closings, or the other ripple effects of reduc::d defense spending.) In addition, since the military is the
nation’s largest trainer of personnel and a ruajor provider of postsecondary education benefits, many
who are unable to enlist will also have io look elsewhere for training and education opportunities. In the
shift of national priorities and resources, new job and training opportunities will no doubt be created,
and the labor me ‘ket will eventually find a new equilibrium. In the meantime, meeting these new
training and education needs and helping people find jobs outside of the defense complex will be serious
policy concerns of the federal government.

This paper focuses on one segment of those who wili no longer have employment in the Department
of Defense—the young men and women who would have enlisted in the active duty military had the
drawdown not occurred but now will not do so. Since the services tend to select the most highly quali-
fied applicants at any given time, these unable to enter the military because of the force reductions will
most likely be excluded because of their relatively low levels of qualification for service. Hence, they
will be called the “newly unqualified.”

Note: The author is a senior education research analyst with the Office of Research, U.S. Department of Education.



Regarding oral presentation skills, there is much greater scrutiny of and therefore greater risk associ-
ated with public speeches made by managers in public sector organizations. Consequently, these activi-
ties are constrained in the public sector and fewer opportunities are available for demonstrating one’s
skill. However, effective managers in the public sector demonstrated more use of oral presentation and
self-confidence than their less effective peers.

Human Resource Management Cluster

The Human Resource Management cluster is associated with the manager’s ubiquitous need to work
and interact with others, including peers, a board of directors, stockholders, and customers, as well as
subordinates. At the most basic level, the manager is responsible for coordinating groups of people by
promoting cooperative efforts, resolving conflicts, or stimulating pride in the organization. These
responsibilities require that managers have positive expectations of others, in order to bring out the most
in them, in addition to realistic views of themselves. Managers must build and use networks of coali-
tions to solve problems and stimulate cooperation. The competencies which contribute to this cluster are

socialized power and influence, positive regard for others, managing group processes, and accurate self-
assessment.

Of the competencies in the Human Resource Management cluster, only managing group processes
was demonstrated to a greater degree by private sector managers. This difference suggests that private
sector managers may have more opportunity to build work group identity, pride, and team spirit, and to
stimulate collaboration within the work group. This may result from the frequent rotation of managerial
personnel and the concern about maintaining a system of checks and balances through segmentation of
public sector agencies and departments. For example, although it might be useful to create a multi-
agency task force including specialists from the FBI, Treasury Department, military police, state police,
and others to address the problem of urban homicide, it would probably violate the territory and jurisdic-
tion policies and operating objectives of these organizations. In addition, the public sector requirements
for privacy regarding personal information about individuals may prevent the level of group identifica-
tion that is often established in the private sector. While these constraints are reasonable and appropriate,
they do create unique demands for the public sector managers who must operate within them. Middle-
level managers in the research demonstrated a greater skill level for managing group processes than
other managerial levels.

The Focusing on Others cluster is discussed under competency similarities.

The above differences have been found to exist at significant or near-significant levels in the amount
and skill levels demonstrated among managers. In every case, private sector managers demonstrated
greater competency levels than did public sector managers. This consistent finding has been attributed
mostly to differences in the information processing allowances and requirements of the two sectors. As
illustrated, the greater standardization of information presented to and processed by managers in the
public sector constrains their experience with conceptualization and recognizing patterns. The limited
availability of specific measures of individual and group performance reduces the public sector
manager’s ability to practice and improve his or her skills in efficiency orientation. Finally, the limited
discretion allowed to public sector managers in effecting change, speaking out on an individual basis,
and selecting and developing their work teams may be associated with lower demonstrated levels of
concern with impacting others, oral presentation skills, and managing group processes. The differences
in job sector demands are reviewed in Table 3, along with the impact they have on individual competencies.

us
1!

a



a civilian technical job. For those wishing to seck higher education, the NOCTI exam resuits can be
equated to university credit toward a degree.

NOCTI exams could be administered to military personnel through one of more than 60 NOCTI test
centers nationally. Sites could also be established at designated military or governmental sites through-
out the world. NOCTI provides all of the necessary materials as well as examiner training.

This paper presents a conceptual model fo: using NOCTI examinations to help military personnel
move into the civilian workforce. Ten specific Military Occupational Specialities (MOS) are identified
for which there are existing NOCTI Occupational Competency examinations. In the selection of these

examples an attempt was made to identify occupations which represent a sizable segment of jobs in the
military.

Also discussed in this paper is the training that the military provides to prepare enlisted personnel for
occupational specialities. Corresponding educational competencies and programs are examined, as are
types of educational institutions which provide them. Finally, implications of national, state, and local
licensing and certification are discussed.

We simply must provide a means by which our military personnel may move into the civilian labor
force with their skills acknowledged. This paper examines how NOCTI occupational competency exams
provide an accurate, efficient high-caliber, and inexpensive way to accomplish this essential task.

About NOCTI

NOCTI was established in 1969 at Rutgers University, under an Office of Education, U.S. Depart-
ment of Health, Education, and Welfare grant, to facilitate the development of a national consortium of
states and territories that would initiate high-quality journeyman teacher occupational competency
examinations (TOCTs). Incorporated in 1973, NOCTI implemented job-ready occupational achievement
tests (SOCATs) in 1978 for student program completers. In 1985, NOCTI organized its Industrial
Occupational Competency Testing (IOCT) pregram in response to growing private sector interest and
support for procedures (1) to select new-hi:> employees and/or trainees and (2) to evaluate employees at
progressive levels of competency in given technical areas and assignments. Today, from its Michigan
headquarters at Ferris State University, NOCTI coordinates the largest network of occupational/technical
assessment services in the nation, serving business, education, and government through an organization
of over 60 area test centers serving 47 states and two U.S. territories.

As the nation’s largest provider of occupational/technical assessments, NOCTI operates data-proven
and comprehensive testing services (normed or criterion-referenced), state-of-the-art computer scoring
services, job and task analysis workshops, and national/international consulting services. Recent con-
tracts include Toyota USA, Nissan USA, Buick Oldsmobile Cadillac Division of General Motors,
Nabisco, Central Oil Coal, the U.S. Department of Labor, the states of Pennsylvania and Connecticut,
General Flectric/Jamaica, and activities with over 700 schools and local school districts. NOCTI's
current item bank inventory represents a vast array of technical skill areas in over 50 occupations
ranging from accounting/bookkeeping to marketing and distribution to warehousing.

The NOCTT teacher testing division currently provides state certification examinations to over 25
state departments of education. In addition to the certification considerations, NOCTI teacher tests may
provide test candidates with college credits at over 100 colleges and universities across the country. In
the ongoing assessment development project with Nissan Motors, NOCTI is playing an essential role in
the Infinite Certification Program. The Volkswagen Salesperson Certification Assessmer:t project
provided Volkswagen with several forms of competency assessments (industry-specific) for current and/
or potential sales personnel and floor managers. A 2-year U.S. Department of Labor contract entitled
“Robotic Technician High Technology In-plant Training Model” provided the Department with a model

82



Table B-2.—Enlisted* personnel participation in New GI Bill, by service, since beginning of

program (1985)
Service No. Enrolled Eligible Population (%)
Army* 440,528 86.1
Navy 263,677 64.0
Air Force 123,706 59.0
Marines 119,486 75.0
Total DoD 947,397 73.3

Note: Data are current as of July 31, 1990.
*Army data combine enlisted and officer participation.

Source: House Veterans Affairs Committee, October 1990.

193

192



Figure 4.—Model of effective job performance”

The
Job's
Demands

The
Individual's
Competencies

Effective
Actions or
Behavior,

The
Organizational
Environment

The job demands in management positions relate to the central duties of planning, organizing, etc.
Each one of these demands, however, varies according to several aspects of the particular job. For
instance, under the “planning” duty, an executive-level manager may be responsible for determining
overall organizational performance goals such as an increase in return on assets. An entry-level manager
may be responsible for determining the performance goals of individual contributors. In each case the
manager has some degree of responsibility for establishing goals and developing plans for achieving
those goals. In some cases it is the same competency that enables each of these managers to perform his
or her function effectively, in other cases different actions or behaviors are linked to separate competencies.

The organizational environment adds an important additional factor to the equation. The organization
has policies and procedures, which are usually reflected in its internal structure and systems. It also has a
mission, which may be reflected in its functions, activities, and corporate strategy. The organization has
a culture and financial and technical resources. In addition, the organization exists within a larger
environment consisting of the social, economic, and political community, and industry.

As the performance model (see Figure 4) suggests, effective performance will result when all three of
the components of the model (individual-job-organization) fit together in a consistent manner. Although
it is possible for effective performance to result if only two components of the model fit together, it is
unlikely that consistently effective performance will result.

Some of the important differences in the job demands of managers in the public and private sectors
are presented in Table 1. These differences will form the foundation for competency requirement differ-
ences which are discussed in the next section. Following that section, similarities in the competency
requirements between the two sectors are presented.

mo ANG



Appendix g

SOCATS AVAILABLE
Accounting /Bookkeeping industrial Electronics
Agriculture Mechanics Machine Trades

Appliance Repair

Architectural Design
Audio-Visual Communications
Auto Body _

Auta Mechanics

Automotive Specialist

Baking .
Building Construction Occupations
Building Trades Maintenance
Business Data Processing
Gabinetmaking

arpentry
Child Care Services
Clcthing & Textiles Mgmt & Production
Cammercial Art
Commercial Foods
Computer & Information Sciences
Computer Programming
Consiruction Electricity
Construction Masonry
Dental Assisting
Diese! Engine Mechanics
Oiversified Occupations«
Oratting
Electrical Construction & Maintenance
Electrica! Occupations
Gleczrical Technology
Gecromechanical Technology
Eeczronics
Blecronic Technology
Food Production, Mct., & Services
Forestry Products and Processing
General Drafting & Design
General Mechandising
General Office
General Secretarial
Graphic Arts
Health Assisting
Heating
Heating & Air Conditioning
Heavy Equipment Maint. Repair
Home Enterainment Equip. Repair
Heme Health Aide
Horticulture
Industrial Electricity

Marketing & Distribution
Mechanical Oratting
Medical Assisting
Nursing Assisting .
Painting and Decorating
Plumbing

Practical Nursing
Production Agriculture
Refrigeration

Sewn Products

Sheet Metal

Smail ine Repair
Truck & Bus Mechanics
Warehousing

Welding

“Written test only; no performance test

FIELD TESTS AVAILABLE

Auto Diesel Mechanics

Civil Technology
Communication Electronics
Metalworking & Fabrication
Uphelstering

94

BEST COPY AVAILABLE



Another avenue of support available to youth not prepared to enter college is the Job Training Partner-
ship program. According to the Grant report, the JTPA system does not adequately serve at-risk youth
because it relies on short-term training efforts and does not support the academic needs of those youth
who tend to be reached and placed in jobs quickly. Strengthening the JTPA would involve establishing
an academic remediation component as an essential part of the training activities, emphasizing drop-out
prevention, and promoting successful practices, especially those that involve longer-term assistance.”?

Although the armed services may not see a role for themselves in these training and education op-
tions, it might be useful to look at the current dilemma in the Middle East deployment of service-
members for lessons learned. In the midst of discussions of drawdowns and unnecessary forces there has
been an enormous deployment of active duty members and reservists. The latest news reports indicate
recruitment interest decreased in the face of imminent travel and the reality of fighting.

Even if the military is able to change its recruitment standards in the next year it may be wise to work
with other sectors in the society to prepare those who could eventually be admitted to the services.
Training and increased educational opportunities for the “newly unqualified” could render them quali-
fied; they would then be an important resource of support for the services should critical needs arise
again.

Finally, the latest congressional budget reconciliation showed a new emphasis on domestic and
economic concerns. Increases in immigration are supported, new jobs programs and service opportuni-
ties created. In this environment, the “newly unqualified” should certainty be viewed as a resource
worthy of the investment of public support.

185



Appendix A

Current Support Systems for Participation in
Postsecondary Education

Five different but interrelated Tital IV federal programs comprise the federal student assistance
system. According to the Advisory Committee on Student Financial Assistance, “the five programs
authorized by Title IV of the Higher Education Act of 1965 are designed to identify eligible disadvan-
taged students and provide them with grants, loans, and work oppertunities to support their
postsecondary education.”4

¢ Federally administered programs: The Pell Grant program is the basic student aid program oper-
ating as an entitlement based on student need. This need is established through a need analysis
formula. The student awarded a Pell grant may use it at any eligible institution; the program is
administered directly by the federal government.

Institutionally administered progranis: Three programs are administered directly by eligible
postsecondary education institutions. These are the Supplemental Educational Opportunity Grant,
the College Work-Study Grant and the Perkins Loan program. Institutions must match federally
committed funds with their own. A separate need analysis formula callec the Congressional
Methodology is used to award funds to studenis.

Lender-administered program: The Guaranteed Student Loan program, which includes Stafford
Student Loans, PLUS loans (Parent Loans to Undergraduate Student), and SLS loans (Supplemental
Loans for Students), offers low-interest ; »ans to students based also on financial need. These loans
are federally guaranteed, but the funds are borrowed through banks or other approved agencies.

In an historical review of the development of federal student assistance programs, the Higher Edu-
cation Act of 1965 is described as a first federal commitment to student aid based on financial need,
establishing the Equal Opportunity Grant. In 1972, the act and its programs were overhauled, consolidat-
ing the programs for student financial assistance under Title IV of the act. The 1972 amendments were
distinguished by putting “purchasing power in the hands of needy students.”** This power and its effects
on postsecondary participation by prospective students from families with low incomes has been debated
every year since the establishment of the programs.

In the 1989-90 academic year, federal support for these student assistance programs was expected to
total $18.5 billion.?6

In addition to the generally available student financial aid programs, a group of programs called
“specially directed aid” provides assistance to postsecondary students. The programs supporting active
duty military, reservists, and veterans can be found in this latter category (see Appendix B).

The most recent comprehensive picture of who gets student assistance and how much they receive is
the result of the National Postsecondary Student Aid Study (NPSAS) by the National Center for Educa-
tion Statistics (NCES). An analysis of the NPSAS data by the American Council on Education (ACE)
provides information on the average ainount of award and the percentage of students receiving each type

188 ts)



would allow an infantryman with a degree in management to readily transfer to the civilian sector with a
credential respected by civilian employers. The Navy, like the Army, opted to use civilian colleges and
universities to offer and award degrees for its sailors.

To compl:ment the Servicemembers Opportunity Colleges’ degree programs, the Army established
the Army/A:nerican Council on Education Registry Transcript Service (AARTS) to assist civilian
college and universities in evaluating credit earned through nontraditional means by active duty military
personnel, AARTS transcripts contain American Council on Education (ACE) credit recommendations
for learning acquired through formal service school courses, MOS experience, and college-level stan-
dardized tests, including CLEP, DSST, SAT, and ACT/PEP. AARTS transcripts are designed to re-
semble official college transcripts and contain the seals of both the Army and ACE. AARTS is endorsed
by the American Association of Collegiate Registrars and Admissions Officers. Currently, AARTS
transcripts are available for active-duty enlisted soldiers who entered the Army on or after October 1981
and remained on active duty on or after January 1984. This service provided by the Army facilitates the
blending of credits based on nontraditional education methodologies with traditional degree programs
offered by civilian colleges and universities throughout the United States.

Colleges and Universities Dedicated /
to Educating Servicemembers

Many colleges and universities recognize the educational needs of the servicemember and his or her
family members. More than 700 postsecondary institutions are members of the Servicemembers Oppor-
tunity Colleges, a consortium of 13 national education associations and institutional members pledged to
ease the difficulties of servicemembers seeking higher education. All institutions and associations that
are part of SOC subscribe to SOC Principles and Criteria. Virtually every institution serving
servicemembers on or near a military base has a memorandum of understanding with the military
installation that sets forth specific policies and procedures by which that institution will offer programs
for personnel. Most of these institutions have a strong track record of blending traditional and
nontraditional education into their degree programs and have made a concerted effor: to remove admin-
istrative hurdles that hinder servicemembers’ participation in coursework.

Traditional college admissions practices often work to the disadvantage of the servicemember quali-
fied for college-level work. While more traditional colleges often severely limit their recognition of
academic achievement though military training, colleges that support servicemembers take training into
account more fully in granting admission and credits.

In addition, institutions that support servicemembers:

* Recognize the GED high school equivalency certificate/diploma, using the American Council on
Education recommendations concerning academic performance, and accept and record previously

successful postsecondary study as part of the servicemember’s program requirements, if appropri-
ate;

* Recognize learning gained from specialized training and experience in the military services or
elsewhere;

« Establish competency by nationally recognized means, such as standardized tests;
* Publicize the alternative admissions procedures available to servicemembers,
* Conduct timely evaluation of educational records and relevant experiences of servicemembers;

* Waive formal admission for servicemembers seeking enrollment in course work for transfer to
another institution; and

¢ Emphasize degree planning to include contracts for degree where appropriate. (Servicemembers
Opportunity Colleges 1990, 4-6)

61



within the Department of Defense and, perhaps, the whole United States. As the composition, structure,
and mission of the military services change— and severe budget constraints seem inevitable in the
1990s—- DANTES’ job will become even more critical in helping servicemembers to fulfill their
voluntary education needs and aspirations.

In-Service Tuition Assistance Program

Since May 7, 1948, the principal vehicle for helping servicemembers afford the costs of participating
in college programs and courses has been the Tuition Assistance Program (TA). The significance of the
Tuition Assistance Program is that servicemembers have the means to participate in college courses at
minimum costs without depleting the Veterans Educational Assistance benefits that the servicemember
may be entitled to receive. The level of support for tuition assistance is a clear barometer of a military
service’s attitude toward educational development: when tuition assistance is reduced, enrollments
decline. When it ceases, most soldiers, sailors, airmen, or marines simply cannot afford to go to school.
After their first term of service, servicemembers eligible for the Montgomery GI Bill can begin using
their GI Bill benefits while in the military. Often servicemembers resist this option and persist in reserv-
ing these educational benefits for use after they have actually separated from the military service.

The Tuition Assistance Program began by providing 100 percent of the tuition for military personnel
enrolled in accredited institutions. Because of budgetary considerations, the U.S. Congress later limited
the payment of tuition assistance from 75 percent to up to 90 percent for enlisted soldiers in grades E-5
and above with less than 15 years of military service. The services can reduce the percentage of tuition
assistance below the maximum allowed by Congress and place additional restrictions on the payment of
tuition assistance due to fiscal necessity. In instances where specific military services have attempted to
eliminate tuition assistance or drastically reduce the percentage of payment, storms of protests have
arisen from thousands of servicemembers. Generally, the military services maintain the 75 percent
payment rate.

Data from recent studies indicate that participation in the Tuition Assistance Program correlates
strongly and consistently with both retention in the military and enlisted promotions (Boesel & Johnson

1988). In a special Navy report regarding the Tuition Assistance Program, the two major conclusions
were:

Seventy-five percent of the TA users are prime retention candidates in the E-4 to E-6 pay
grades. For example, the average TA user has been in the Navy over six years and has com-
pleted almost two years of college credi. since enlistment.

The availability of TA was cited by a majority of the users as an important factor in their
decisions to enlist and reenlist in the Navy. For many it was the deciding factor. TA is
perceived as an entitlement or right. Reductions in the level of assistance, as with any other
benefit, have a negative impact on morale, consequently, the incentive to stay in the Navy
(Naval Training Systems Center 1988, 5).

The Tuition Assistance Program remains the principal funding mechanism for in-service college
participation. As the military changes in the 1990s and this funding mechanism competes for scarce
dollars within the military structures, advocates for voluntary education opportunities for service-
members will be continuously challenged to assist in the preservation of this program. Since voluntary
postsecondary education is not commonly a high priority for the operationally oriented military
decisionmaker, there will be temptation to sacrifice tuition assistance as budget cuts are made. It requires
wisdom and a genuine appreciation of the potential of education for commanders and senior civilians in
the DoD budget process to realize that education programs must be the foundation for the combat

training of the coming century. In addition, it eases the transition of servicemembers as they leave the
service.

57

6U



Notes

' For a full description of this survey, see U.S. Department of Defense, Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense (Force
Management and Personnel), Population Representation in the Military Services, Fiscal Year 1989 (Washington D.C.:
1990), Chapter 30.

2 Since Hispanics may be of any race, the total racial-ethnic proportion is not the sum of the 49 percent racial minorities
and the 9 percent Hispanics. For example, some of the Hispanics in Table 4 are counted as blacks in Table 3.

> See U.S. Department of Defense, Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense (Manpower, Reserve Affairs, and

Logistics), Profile of American Youth: 1980 Nationwide Administration of the Armed Forces Vocational Aptitude Battery
(Washington, D.C.: March 1982).

* Comparisons are with all civilian youth, rather than with civilian youth in each region, because regional breakdowns of
civilian occupational composites are not available in the Profile of American Youth.

5 Estimates made froni sample data are subject to sampling errors. When comparing two estimates from sample data, tests
can be conducted to determine how likely it is that the differences observed in the estimates reflect real differences in the
population. The tests used for inter-service differences in this chapter are indicated at the bottom of the tables. For the
DoD/CPS comparisons, the CPS estimate, which is based on very large sample numbers, is regarded as a census count, and

the difference is regarded as statistically significant at the p.<.05 level if the DoD estimate differs from it by at least two
standard deviations.

6G. Stevens and J.H. Cho, “Socioeconomic Indices and the New 1980 Census Occupational Classification Scheme,” Social
Science Research, Vol. 14 (1985): 142-168.

18



Bibliography

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Grissmer, D.W., Buddin, R., Kirby, S.N., Improving Reserve Compensation, R-3707-FMP/RA, The RAND Corporation,
September 1989.

Kim, C., Nestel, N., Phillips, R.L., Borus, M.E., The All Volunteer Force: An Analysis of Youth Participation, Attrition
and Reenlistment, Center for Human Source Research, The Ohio State University, Mary 1980.

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U.S. House of Representatives Committee on the Armed Services, National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year
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47

ut
a


Table 4.—Active duty women in uniform as of December 1989

Marine Air Total
Army Navy Corps Force DoD
Women in
enlisted force 11.4% 9.9% 5.0% 13.7% 11.0%
Women in
officer force 11.4% 10.5% 3.4% 13.0% 11.2%

Source: Armed Forces Information Services, Defense 90 Almanac, 30.

The military has been particularly successful in attracting high-achieving minority youth. For ex-
ample, the Army’s enlisted force consists of 40.3 percent minority personnel (31.6 percent black, 4.3
percent Hispanic, 4.5 percent others). In all of DoD, minorities comprise 31.1 percent of the total active-
duty enlisted force (see Table 5).

Table 5.—Minorities in uniform as of Decenver 1989

Marine Air Total
Army Navy Corps Force DoD
Percent
Black officers 10.7 3.9 5.1 5.5 69
Black enlisted 31.6 17.1 20.8 17.3 22.8
Hispanic officers 17 2.2 2.2 2.0 2.0
Hispanic enlisted 43 5.7 7.0 3.8 48
Other minority officers 3.1 27 2.0 2.8 2.8
Other minority enlisted 45 5.6 3.1 3.3 44
Total minority officers 15.6 8.8 93 10.4 11.8
Total minority enlisted 40.3 28.3 30.9 24.4 31.9

Source: Armed Forces Information Services, Defense 90 Alamanac, 30.

With respect to postsecondary education, less than 5 percent of the total officer strength on active
duty has less than a bachelor’s level of higher education. Nearly 35 percent of all officers have degrees
beyond the bachelor’s level. Fewer than 2 percent of the active-duty enlisted personnel have less than a
high school diploma or a high school GED certificate. Ninety-five percent of enlisted personnel possess
a high school diploma or a General Education Diplema (GED) or other alternative education certificate,
but no bachelor’s degrees (see Table 6).

52



The Use of NOCTI Examinations to Assist
Military Personnel Moving into the Civilian
Work Force

Scott D. Whitener

Overview

With the anticipated sizable reduction in our military forces, there needs to be an efficient means to
matriculate trained military personnel into the civilian work force. This process can not merely focus on
directing these individuals toward low-level, low-paying jobs but must recognize and document the
skills and knowledge they have acquired so that they may assume positions which acknowledge and
reward their expertise. Even if further training is required to assume a specific civilian job, an asscss-
ment vehicle must be provided which determines what specific additional training is required rather than
assuming that the skills and knowledge base obtained through the military do not exist.

Currently the United States faces a shortage of technically trained people. Many of the jobs in the
military sector involve extensive technical training. Further, a substantial portion of the military jobs
closely parallel civilian counterparts. For example, the technical fields of electronics, hcavy equipment,
automotive service, maintenance, machine tool, and so on have like skills whether applied in the military
or in a civilian situation,

The problem is how to document the skills and knowledge people have acquired in the military so
that they may show documented evidence of their skills to a potential employer or to an educational
agency, in the event they need further specific training to become civilian job-ready. The answer is the
use of nationally standardized occupational competency examinations prepared and administered
through ihe National Occupational Competency Testing Institute (NOCTI).

NOCTI has a battery of over 130 nationally standardized two-part written/performance occupational
competency examinations covering almost all technical fields. These tests are available at two levels, the
job-ready level and the jouracying level. Over 100 colleges and universities nationwide grant credit for
NOCTI exam results. Each test taker receives a diagnostic printout dipicting his or her occupational
skills. This printout is used as a credential that the test taker can provide to the potential employer which
presents evidence of demonstrated skills.

Armed with NOCTI test results, those leaving the military would have in their possessi7n a credential
demonstrating their skills so that they could move more directly into a civilian technical job. If more
training were required for civilian employment, the test results would point specifically to the areas of
training required for job readiness. Those military personnel with like deficiencies could take part in
group classes specifically designed to equip them with the skills they needed to make the transition into

Note: The author is executive director of the National Occupational Competency Testing Institute and is dean of the
College of Education at Ferris State University.

81

rv4)
mn



* Most often, decisions concerning reductions in employment in defense operations are not made
locally, but result from decisions made at a national or corporate level. As a result, workers’ contin-
ued employment and the maintenance of a local economic base may be relatively unimportant
factors in determining whether to find alternative uses for an underutilized facility.

Firms and communities must bear considerable cost when converting plants from defense-only to
comniercial use. In the case of a large corporation, the capital investment decision to convert a
facility is made at a different location and is more likely to be influenced by financial than man-
power considerations. In fact, one study showed that firms are more likely to be successful if they
diversify through construction of a new plant than the modified use of an existing one.

Advance planning for conversion on the part of industry and government has been extremely
limited, due to the length and magnitude of the defense buildup. For a conversion to be successful
in today’s highly complex industrial environment, conversion opportunities must be “designed in”
during the initial selection of equipment and processes, the design of management procedures, and
through worker training (or cross-training). A prerequisite to these activities is a clear understanding
of any commercial products that may be produced at that facility in the future. Changes in these

areas are extremely difficult, costly, and time-consuming to accomplish after a dislocation has
occurred.

Despite these difficulties, efforts to integrate military and civil production and to use commercial
specifications and standards could provide much greater opportunities for conversion in the future. The
“vision” of the proponents of civil-military integration is an industrial base in which the production of
commercial and military products is virtually indistinguishable. This can be realized through similarities
at the product level (for example, “generic” microelectronic items or aircraft components) or by the use
of processing techniques that can meet the requirements of both military and civilian products. The
integrated approach benefits both the defense sector—which is no longer expected to respond exclu-
sively to the needs of a single buyer—and the commercial sector—which will find itself able to play a
larger role in the defense market. Perhaps the greatest benefit is to DoD, which can call upon a broader,
more innovative, and more cost-effective industrial base. Planning now underway in these areas by

government and industry may enable the nation to turn to conversion as an immediate response to the
next potential dislocation.

The second feature highlighted in all of the past experiences is the important role played by federal,
state, and local authorities in minimizing the burden on defense workers and restoring the heaith of the
affected communities. These were shown to be most effective where plans were already in place and
response organizations were established. As noted earlier, the average time rcquired for a worker to find
new employment is only 3 to 6 months; to be effective, any governmental response must be already
underway as soon as notification of a plant closing is received.

Following World War II, returning servicemen looked toward the GI Bill to ease their transition into
desirable employment. Federal attention to the problems of displaced workers has grown since that time.
By the end of the Vietnam War, state and local initiatives were supplemented by training and other
assistance provided under federal statutes such as the Area Redevelopment Act, which aids and provides
training to displaced workers, as well as the Manpower Development and Training Act.

An even wider array of programs is available today to assist displaced workers in reestablishing their
careers. The most important of these from a training and education standpoint is the Job Training
Partnership Act (JTPA) of 1982, which provides a range of assistance services to terminated workers.
The JTPA uses federal, state, and local resources to help prepare economically disadvantaged and long-
term unemployed people to gain employment. Title II authorizes funding and sets requirements for local
training and employment services, while Title III of the Act specifically addresses the needs of dislo-
cated workers. Training programs are set up at the state level and are geared towards a communitiy’s
needs. Aithough the program is administered by the Department of Labor, 80 percent of the funding
under the Act is allocated to the states and partly uscd to staff rapid response organizations that can

146 ;
14u



However, the relatively milder post-Korean cutbacks again were accompanied by favorable economic
circumstances. The economy and employment situation improved in the first year of Korean cutbacks:
the Federal Reserve Board index of total industrial production rose to the second-highest level ever
(exceeded only by the peak World War II production period in 1944); each month of the year set a new
employment record; and the number of local areas with substantial labor surpluses declined from 21 in
July 1952 to 16 in July 1953.

The absence of significant worker dislocations during this period appears to be due to a combination
of circumstances very similar to those that existed at the end of World War II. At the peak of war
production, the economy was experiencing significant labor shortages that would have been even worse
except for substantial temporary supplements to the labor force. Therefore, after the war, even with the
returning GIs, many local areas went from a shortage to a balanced situation, rather than falling into
labor surplus. Similarly, the mobilization managers during the Korean conflict had created a substantial
degree of pent-up demand through rationing, economic controls, and deferral of nonessential construc-
tion and public works projects. Thus at the end of the war, the economy was performing strongly and
defense cutbacks—which themselves were modest relative to the World War II demobilization—were
easily absorbed in overall economic growth.

Vietnam Conflict/NASA Cutkacks

As the national economy of the 1960s flourished, most well- managed businesses grew. Many sought
new or expanded markets and adjusted their levels of production to meet the growing military require-
ments associated with the build-up in Vietnam. Other firms started from scratch to reap the benefits of of
high government spending, increasing employment, and producing even greater ameunts of civilian and
defense goods. The Vietnam build-up was generally concentrated in industries that already employed
large numbers of defense workers, such as the aircraft, ordnance, and transpertation industries. These
three sectors accounted for about 40 percent of defense-related employment generated by the build-up.

However, the short-term expansion signaled a foreboding downturn in economic activity a: the
conflict drew to a close. Although the cutbacks were implemented more gradually than those experi-
enced in World War II, by the end of the 1960s, the defense industrial base had begun to shrink in
response to the U.S. drawdown. In 1969, troop strength was reduced by nearly 300,000, cutting total
wartime expenditures by about 50 percent. As a further blow to the economy, measures iaken to decrease
military spending were mirrored by a 50 percent reduction in the nation’s space program—to $3 billion
per year. The poor economic climate was due partly to the decision to maintain both the civil and
military sectors, and the lack of tax increases to pay for the war, resulting in higher inflation after it.

De-escalation of the war resulted in rapid reductions in the procurement of defense items, driving
1970 defense purchases to 18 percent below the 1968 peak. In the first two months of 1970 alone, 2,000
business failures were recorded in the United States, with liabilities in excess of $300 million. The
changes in employment that were caused by the Vietnam cutbacks are indicated in Table 3. Between
February of 1970 and 1971, manufacturing employment declined from 20 million to 18.7 million, with a
considerable reduction in the average hours worked per week.”! Within the hard-hit aerospace industry,
the results of the cutbacks were considered catastrophic, far in excess of any cutbacks envisioned in
today’s environment. In that industry alone, employment declined from 1.5 miilion to about 830,000
between the start of the downturn in 1969 and the mid-1970s.??

139



Education

Newly uxqualified youth, like recruits in general, are almost all high school graduates (see Table 11).
Compared with the civilian youth population, they include very few high schoo! dropouts and very few
individuals with any college experience.

Table 11.—Education of selected military and civilian population

Education Newly qualified FY 1989 recruits Civilians 18 to 24
Less than HS grad. 3 3 18
HS grad. 96 95 43
Education beyond HS 1 2 38
Total 100 100 100

High school graduation status is important in military manpower planning because research has
repeatedly shown that first-term attrition rates are lower for high school graduates than for nongraduates.
High school graduation seems to be associated with personal qualities such as perseverance and commit-
Ment to a course of action. Needless to say, such qualities are valuable in the civilian labor market, as
well as in military service. To some extent, they offset the deficit in the tested aptitude of newly
unqualified youth, tending to increase their competitiveness in the labor market.

Region

Among the four Census regions, the South will experience the greatest impact from reductions in the
number of military recruits (see Table 12). Forty-six percent of the unqualified youth come from the
South, as compared to 40 percent of FY 1989 recruits and 34 percent of the civilian youth population.
The Northeast will be least affected, in relative terms; it has 21 percent of the youth unqualified for
service. T' = North Central region will be affected in proportion to its numbers, while the West wiil have
a somewhat smaller share of the newly unqualified than it does of all 18- to 24-year-olds.

Table 12.—Region of selected military and civilian populations

Region Newly unqualified FY 1989 recruits Civilians 18 to 24
Northeast 13 14 21
North Central 25 26 25
South 46 40 34
West 17 20 21
Total 100 100 100

Table 13 shows the racial distribution of the newly unqualified in each region. The South has the
largest share of newly unqualified youth who are black, as well as the largest proportion overall. Fifty-
seven percent of the militarily unqualified in the South will be black according to this scenario. In fact,
the more than 80,000 black youth in the South who will be unable to enter the military because of new,

higher quality standards will make up the single largest racial/regional bloc of the newly unqualified.
The next largest group is southern whites.

=
oF


large-scale conversion failed as newly commercialized products—buses, people movers, and subway
cars—failed to meet the cost and quality requirements of civilian users.

In the period between the Korean and Vietnam wars, the government had established programs and
policies that could act as economic recovery tools. Beginning in 1961, the federal government initiated
the first large-scale training program for displaced workers since the Depression.” The Area Redevelop-
ment Act provided general aid to displaced workers of defense and non-defense companies. Up to 16
weeks of training were provided for unemployed and underemployed workers in depressed areas, paying
them an amount equal to the average unemployment compensation which was being offered by the
government during that time. An expansive federal initiative, the Manpower and Development Training
Act of 1962, was launched to supplement previous legislation. This act also provided up to 52 weeks
compensatory pay to people in all socio-economic areas, Additional amendments ensued, and pay and
weeks of receipt were increased based on educational level and financial status of the trainees. The
retraining of workers was stressed in programs under the Trade Expansion Act of 1962, and the focus on
youth employment was expanded under legislation enacted in 1964. The Social Security Act of 1967
was amended to include retraining for welfare recipients. Thus as of the early 1970s, there were approxi-
mately 29 different federally-funded initiatives focusing on the plight of displaced workers.

In addition to these federal initiatives, many new programs were put in place on the state and local
level. Programs were established in Alabama, California, Connecticut, Kansas, Massachusetts, Michi-
gan, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia and are often integrated with federally funded programs, In
California, for instance, combined state and federally funded programs to help retrain displaced workers
are gaining prestige. The Postsecondary Vocational Education program employs community colleges for
postsecondary vocational/technical education courses on 105 campuses in 70 community ccilege dis-
tricts statewide. Students can focus on technical training classes, including computer information
science, medical technology and electronics and also receive job counseling and placement services.
Additionally, the state offers adult education, sponsored by local high schools and the State Department
of Education, which focuses on improving basic education skills in vocational eduction.

Similar to these state initiatives, industrial firms have established training programs for displaced
plant workers, such as the Armour Autoration Fund,”> whose purpose was to manage technological
change and provide assistance for displaced workers. A number of independent companies initiated their
own programs to train disadvantaged people to assist them in finding employment.

Case Studies of Community Adjustment

Although the wartime experiences described above provide lessons learned on the nation’s experience
in adjusting to changes in defensc spending, thcy tend to neglect the impact that is felt by individual
communities and workers who are left with faltering economies or lost jobs. The effect on workers can
be particularly severe, especially at times when economic activity is at a slow pace. There have been
numerous studies of the plight of displaced workers and the relative success of different groups of
individuals in finding work. In general, it has been found that highly qualified and educated individuals
find work more quickly than others. Fortunately, these are characteristics of a large part of the “higher
tech” defense workforce. One survey of displaced workers who lost their jobs when a Boeing Aerospace
contract was cancelled found that the ability of blue collar workers to find jobs at or above their former
earings was closely related to the type of training and education they had received prior to their termi-
nation; thus, the better educated received jobs considerably faster than those with less education. Other
studies have found that the average period of unemployment for displaced workers is 3 to 6 months;
however, many workers take much longer to find new jobs. Again, educational leve} was the most
important determinant of reemployment success. Income losses for these displaced individuals can also
be serious—more serious than time searching for work might indicate. A study of acrospace industry
cutbacks in the mid-1960s, for example, showed that the average worker's loss of earnings in the year
following layoffs was nearly half of his annual wage.”*

141

143



Table 8.—Summary of congressional proposals for reducing manpower within Department of
Defense as of August 6, 1990

House of Representatives Senate
129,500 active duty reductions! 100,000 active duty reductions?
Amy 68,500 40,000
Air Force 36,500 35,000
Navy 20,000 22,000
Marine Corps 4,500 3,000

Source: Navy Times, 6 August 1990, 3.

"Requires involuntary separation by October 1, 1991 of approximately 21,500 Army personnel, 13,500 Air Force personnel
from active-duty forces; adds 20,927 selected reservists.

*Adds 400 Selected Reservists

Department of Defense Policy Regarding
Voluntary Education Programs

Historically, voluntary education programs of active duty servicemembers have been directed more
toward self-development of the individual as a member of society than toward providing well-trained
members of a military machine (Anderson & Kime 1990). Postsecondary education has been aimed
toward (1) the servicemember as a unique individual, (2) the service person as a member of a specific
armed service, and (3) the service person as a member of society at large (Berry 1974, 27).

Currently, Department of Defense Directive 1322.8 states the official DoD policy (Office of the
Secretary of Defense 1987), requiring the military services to establish and maintain voluntary education
programs that provide opportunities for servicemembers to achieve educational, vocational, and career
goals. Access to these opportunities is to be as available to military personnel as to citizens in the
civilian sector. These opportunities include not only secondary, postsecondary, and vocational programs
and testing, but also in-service educational guidance and counseling by qualified personnel. The depart-
ments are required to encourage the use of voluntary education programs to enhance the
servicemember’s “military effectiveness and prepare for positions of greater responsibility in the Mili-
tary Services” (Office of the Secretary of Defense 1987, 2). The Army, Navy, Air Force, and Marine
Corps provide educational staff, finances, and other resources for the operation of these voluntazy
education opportunities to meet the needs of the military services. The military services also issue
regulations that govern the conduct of their voluntary education programs.

This same DoD directive spells out the function and responsibilities of the Defense Activity for
Nontraditional Education Support (DANTES). The mission of this in-service DoD agency, administered
by the Department of the Navy, is to support the voluntary education functions of the Office of the
Secretary of Defense (OSD) and the military services by “administering nontraditional education pro-
grams, managing specified contracts for education services, providing educational . ad informational
materials, conducting special projects and developmental activities, and performing other management
and education support tasks” (Office of the Secretary of Defense 1987, 7-1).

DANTES replaced the United States Armed Forces Institute (USAFI) in 1974. It provides
servicemembers in all the military services with a wide range of examination and certification programs.
It operates an independent study support system and an examination score recording and reporting
system. DANTES is the leading proponent agency as well as advocate for nontraditional education

50


Introduction

Nevzer Stacey

If the military has to restructure its workforce, and consequently reduce the number of its employees,
how easily will it manage this transition? How well will the affected employees do in the labor market?
How will the defense industry and educational institutions respond to the need for transition? The
answers to these questions are the subject of this book.

The Office of Educational Research and Improvement of the U.S. Department of Education commis-
sioned 10 papers and convened a conference in May 1991 to discuss them. The papers focused on: (1)
the people who are likely to be affected by the planned drawdown, (2) the mechanisms or institutions
that can help people leaving the military to move into the civilian market, (3) the past experience of the
defense industry in dealing with drawdowns, and (4) the role of educational institutions during this
transition.

The first set of three papers was presented to the conference panel “Post-Gulf War Cutbacks in the
Military and Their Implications for Non-College Bound Youth Entering the Military.” In a paper
entitled “Drawdown Scenarios and Personnel Implications,” David Grissmer discusses the drawdown
and the different strategies for achieving it. He then uses quantitative models of the Armed Forces
personnel system to estimate the employment, training, and educational effects of different drawdown
scenarios. Among his conclusions are that fewer young people will be employed by the military, and

thus that fewer will receive occupational training in military skills and access to GI Bill educational
benefits.

The second paper, “Crew Cuts: Effects of the Defense Drawdown on Minorities,” was prepared by
Janice Laurence of Human Resources Research Organization and delivered by Mark J. Eitciberg.
Minorities, especially blacks, may experience negative effects as a result of cutbacks, since they are
over-represented in the Armed Services, particularly the Army. According to Laurence, simulations of
force cuts by tenure and job groupings do not show minorities to be at a disadvantage relative to whites.
However, it appears that major effects may be felt by the minorities at the point of entry.

The third paper, “Cutting Recruits: A Profile of the Newly Unqualified,” concentrates on the entering
applicants. David Boesel simulates the characteristics of the young men and women who would have
enlisted in the military during fiscal years 1991 through 1995 but will not do so because of the draw-
down in military forces. Since all these young men and women are high school graduates, what they
may lack in aptitude may be compensated for by their credentials. According to Boesel, high school
graduation is required for enlistment because the graduates are much more likely than nongraduates to
complete their first term of service. He states that the military experience is likely to be an important
asset in the labor market. In summary, the people most affected by the drawdown may be those whom
the “newly unqualified” displace on the job ladder—these with even less education and few if any job

Note: The author is a senior education research analyst in the Office of Research, U.S. Department of Education.



credit by examination, which are seen as more cost-effective. And they will rely more heavily on alterna-
tive, less costly methods of delivering educational services, such as video, electronic mail, and satellite.

Finally, the downsizing of military personnel jeopardizes an already strained system of educational
support services, To the extent that positions of education service officers an¢ military counselors are
eliminated or reduced, servicemembers will be left to their own devices to plan for career and educa-
tional development, identify available programs of study and obtain the necessary funds to pursue them.
In the words of one military education officer, “Up to now we’ ve been holding their hands. We may
have to hand them a TA (tuition assistance) vouche and say, ‘So long. You’re on your own.’ ”

In sum, the net effect of these changes for military personnel is likely to be more sharply restricted
access to military tuition assistance, a narrower spectrum of program offerings dispersed more widely,
and a greater burden on the individual servicemember to locate and finance opportunities for continuing
education. In addition, if the military confines its support to those programs that are deemed “service-
essential,” tlie servicemember will get less help in obtaining transferable skills and may be less prepared
for the readjustment to civilian life.

The societal effects of the military downsizing could be much broader. As University of Maryland at
College Park Chancellor Benjamin Massey predicts, “The major impact on the n ‘ion will be that a
smaller pool of the labor force will have the encouragement to begin or continue postsecondary educa-
tion.” For many, and for a disproportionate number of minority youth, the loss of the employment,
training, and educational opportunities, as well as the less tangible benefits of pride in achievement,
afforded by a military career may well be irreplaceable.

Higher Education’s Receptivity to Military Servicemembers

Because of articulation and transfer problems, higher educaiion has not been uniformly supportive of
either voluntary education pursuits of servicemembers or other nontraditional students. Nor are higher
education institutions likely to become more receptive when traditional options, such as ROTC scholar-
ship programs, disappear. Better ties between military education and higher education necessitate
policies that address the unique learning needs of servicemembers, goals of military training, and
prospects of veterans.

Articulation and Transfer

Postsecondary education has been important to all the groups described in this paper. However, as a
function of diverse missions and programs, higher education institutions have forged many different
responses to the educational needs and experiences of active duty military and veterans.

Guidelines have been developed for translating the knowledge acquired through the variety of raili-
tary-sponsored training and off-duty voluntary education experiences of servicemembers. The Guide to
the Evaluation of Educational Experiences in the Armed Services (American Council on Education) is a
tool recognized and used by most colleges and universities to analyze the applications of military
servicemembers to their institutions. However, the Department of Defense was sufficiently concerned
about the information shared by higher education and the military concerning articulation of programs
and transfer of credit to recently sponsor a year-long study examining problems of servicemembers in

obtaining credit for their various educational experiences toward requirements for the major and for
general education.

Interviews with state contacts, interviews with campus individuals who evaluate transcripts, and a
transcript evaluation of typical course-taking patterns indicated how traditional higher education remains
in regards to the definition and validation of educational credentials. Most of the institutional contacts
were aware of used the available resources to accept and apply credit. However, this application tended

179

ob

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za)



Table 4a.—The effect of veterans benefits by age, period of service, and program (standard errors

in parentheses)
Regressor Dependent variable
Grade Log 1986 Grade Log 1986 Grade
Race increment earnings Period increment earnings Program increment
qa) @) @) (4) @)
Used White 1.39 Early 1.36 GIBill 1.35
VA benefits (0.064) AVF (0.292) (0.060)
Allother 1.05 Vietnam 1,34 VEAP 0.690
races (0.173) (0.062) (0.212)
Other 0.443
VA (0.166)
Grade at White 0.095 Early 0.083
entry (0.011) AVF {0.044)
All other 0.108 Vietnam 0.096
races (0.029) (0.011)
Grade White 0.038 Early 0.061
increment (0.010) AVF (0.044)
All other 0.075 Vietnam 0.042
races (0.026) (0.010)

Notes: Sample described in Table 1. All equations include the same regressors as in the equations reported in Table 3.

Table 4b.—The effect of veterans benefits by type of training (standard errors in parentheses)

Regressor Type of training Dependent variable

Grade Log 1986 earnings
increment
q@) (2) QB) @ 6)
Used VA benefits College or 1.73 0.091 0.016
grad school (0.06) (0.031) (0.047)
Other training 0.082 -0.046 -0.011
(0.087) (0.044) (0.056)
Highest grade 0.065
completed (0.008)
Grade at entry 0.092 0.081 0.091
(0.011) (0.010) (0.011)
Grade increment College or 0.044 0.040
grad school (0.009) (0.014)
Other training -0.022 0.015
(0.036) (0.044)
No VA usage 0.034 0.035
(0.019) (0.020)
R? 0.32 0.19 0.20 0.19 0.20

Notes: Sample described in notes to Table 1. Each equation also includes the same covariates as the equations reported in
Table 3. 77 percent of VA benefit users attended college or graduate school since thuir entry to service.

204
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At the time this paper was being prepared for presentation we did not know how 400,000 service-
members currently committed in the Desert Shield operation would be further affected by a long-term
placement of troops in the Persian Gulf or a war in that region. Either of these occurrences would have a
direct impact upon the numbers of servicemembers leaving and the services’ recruitment goals.

Also, we anticipated that the speed with which troops were deployed in this emergency and the
strength of numbers available due to previous force buildup would likely be used as arguments against

the largest cuts that were planned or at least draw them out over a longer period of time, say 7 years
instead of 5.

Finally, the call-up of reservists created a whole set of problems for students, higher education
institutions, and the military. Affected students have had to cancel classes and travel abroad without any
contingency plans for scholarship loss and matriculation. The institutions were faced with the need for
policies to adapt instructional delivery to student goals and locations, as well as policies affecting loss of
credit and scholarship status. The military could be faced with a potential loss of manpower from the
reserves, regardless of available education benefits, if the realities of the military contract deter future
students from signing up.

Given the fluidity of the environment, we made a decision that this paper could best be of service by
describing what is known about the current participation of active duty soldiers and veterans in post-
secondary education and by describing the challenges to military and nonmilitary assistance programs
that will come from changes in recruitment and attrition policies. A description of assistance systems
accessible to nonveterans, veterans, and prospective military personnel is presented in Appendices A and
B. A discussion of the policies affecting student assistance and proposals to meet the challenges to the
systems is based on reviewing research on the outcomes of current student assistance policy and inter-

views with military policymakers, education service officers, Congressional staff, and chief executives
of higher education institutions.

Purposes of the Paper

We propose to accomplish three purposes with this paper:

1. To describe the current participation of military servicemembers in postsecondary education and
to consider how this participation might change for a number of groups within the military as
policies of selection and retention change;

2. To outline policy proposals for expanding and directing current assistance programs to meet the
education and training needs of various groups within the military or with propensity to enlist in
the military services; and

3. To describe the current support systems for participation in postsecondary education, through the
federal student aid programs and through the military service assistance programs.

Conclusions and Recommendations

The seven conclusions which direct the organization of the paper are as follows:

1. The changing composition of the military force will continue to generate demand for post-
secordary education. Nevertheless, new selection and retention criteria, as well as budgetary

reductions and other policy changes, could restrict access to postsecondary education and place
additional burdens on student assistance programs.

2. The “newly unqualified” for military service are expected to have a modest effect on student
assistance programs. These prospective students may indeed be considered as replacements for
the expected enrollment declines in the number of traditional college-age students. While most
would have high school diplomas, their academic preparation would be uneven and the traditional

168
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Possible Approaches to Education Transition Assistance

One approach to energizing education transition assistance is for the Department of Veterans Affairs
to assume an active advocacy role for servicemembers/veterans in using their educational benefits. For
example, DVA could head an interagency task force composed of OSD, the military services, federal
and state education offices, and education associations, and institutional representatives targeted toward
development and implementation of initiatives encouraging servicemembers and veterans to go to
college by using their GI Bill benefits. DVA could conduct workshops with veterans coordinators,
counselors, and advisers, concentrating not just on administrative procedures but on also ways to better
satisfy veterans’ human needs through higher educaticn. DVA could arrange for a vigorous outreach to
veterans and their adult family members while in the process of separating from the military and build
on the mandatory pre-separation briefing given by in-service education personnel. DVA could arrange
for networks of colleges and universities, such as currently developed by SOC, that {a) “contract for
degrees” by conducting official evaluations of prior learning and providing the veteran-student with a
guaranteed academic plan for degree completion; (b) recognize and award academic credits for relevant
learning that occurred during formal training at military service schools and through on-the-job military
experience; (c) award credit and accept in transfer credits based on nationally recognized standardized
testing such as CLEP, ACT/PEP and DANTES DSSTs; (d) provide readily available academic coun-
seling; (e) follow a liberal policy regarding the transfer of academic credits; and (f) limit institutional
residency requirements. DVA could expand their work with national education associations by providing
speakers and exhibits at their annual conferences for the purpose of explaining veterans educational
benefits and encouraging both public and private colleges and universities to conduct their own outreach
to veterans with the active assistance of DVA. In other words, this approach would make DVA the
primary national agency encouraging use and planning, coordinating and implementing actions pro-
actively on behalf of veterans as well as bureaucratically administering veterans education assistance.

A second approach is for DoD to assume the lead role in “encouraging” (nearly to the point of requir-
ing) every transitioning servicemember to (a) set realistic education goals for himself or herself, (b)
document those goals by establishing an individual educational plan (preferably a student agreement or
contract with inherent guarantees); (c) where possible, actually begin a postsecondary education program
on active duty that is transferrable to a college the veteran will attend after separating from the military;
(d) arrange, with the help of in-service education staff, for admission to the college the veteran has
chosen to attend after separation; and (e) begin use of DVA educational benefits while on active duty by
clearly establishing eligibility for benefits, activating an individual DVA account, and drawing on that
account during the last 6 months of active duty. Such an account could continue or be easily transferred
ac ine student changes from active duty to veteran status, with payments continuing uninterrupted. DoD
would provide for sufficient educational counselors and/or monies for contractual services so that
installations could provide the necessary counseling, testing, programming, and administrative services.
(The General Accounting Office and Defense auditors would need to be energized to ensure that these
manpower positions and funds are, in fact, used for education transition assistance, and not ripped off
in the military chain of command for other purposes.) OSD could arrange for networks of colleges and
universities, perhaps a follow-on to those already developed by SOC, using the criteria outlined in the
DVA approach, above. The ACAP philosophy that the “military must take care of its own” could be
used to justify DoD advocating this approach. The capability to recruit, train, retain, and, as necessary,
mobilize well-qualified servicemembers in sufficient numbers to meet national contingencies surely
justifies the effort needed to care for the educational needs of servicemembers a:.d veterans.

A third approach is for DoD and DVA to jointly coordinate a major effort to energize education
transition assistance, A task force headed jointly by OSD and DVA, with other appropriate participants,
could be targeted toward development and implementation of initiatives encouraging servicemembers
and veterans to go to college by using their GI Bill bencfits. DoD could strongly encourage every
transitioning servicemember to undertake all the actions outlined in the second approach. Networks of
colleges could be established using the SOC model. A “transition guide” for use by both in-service
education staff and post-service veterans coordinators, counselors, and advisors could be jointly

73



Table 5.—Number and percentage of active duty enlisted personnel by education level within
race-ethnicity groups (as of March 31, 1990)

Race-ethnicity

Education White Black Hispanic Other! Total
level N % N % N % N %o N
No credential 26.856 2.2 4447 Ll 2645 3.0 949 1.2 34,897 2.0

GED/alternative card 72,016 5.9 17,063 4.2 6,227 7.2 3,530 4.5 98,836 5.5
High school diploma 1,039,810 85.6 362,225 89.2 72,399 83.3 64,779 82.4 1,539,213 86.1

Some college 46,309 3.8 13,419 3.3 3,502 4.0 3,728 47 66,958 3.7
Bachelors 25,333 2.1 8,087 2.0 1,961 2.3, 5,283 6.7 40,664 2.3
Masters 2,298 2 495 A 106 A 159 2 3,058 2
Ph.D. 45 <i 1S <1 8 <1 34 <1 102 <1
Total? 1,214,904 100 406,232. 100 86,948 100 78,586 100 1,786,830 100

Source: Defense Manpower Data Center, Arlington, VA.
‘Other includes such categories as American Indians, Alaskan natives, Asians and Pacific Islanders.

*Total includes those with unknown education level.

The current data for minorities, and in particular blacks, in terms of occupational assignment in the
military is not as positive. Table 6 presents the distribution of whites and minorities across the major
DoD occupational areas. Whites are more than twice as likely as blacks to be assigned to electronic
equipment repair jobs. Hispanics and other minorities are also underrepresented in this high-tech occu-
pational area. On the other hand, blacks are almost twice as likely to serve in functional support and
administration, generally rather soft-skill jobs. Again, other minorities fail in between whites and blacks.

Also notable is that in service and supply jobs, the percentage for blacks is just about one and one half
times that for whites.

Though blacks are still more likely than whites to serve in unskilled jobs because of a test score gap
(and in some instances personal preference), there has been a conscious effort to achieve a more equi-
table racial balance in military specialties. Table 6 presents only a static view of job assignments for
minorities. Minorities have made great strides in military occupational placement. Eitelberg recently

examined the occupational assignment patterns of blacks, whites, snd Hispanics over the years and
concluded that:

... the trends of the past decade or so—slow but perceptibly increasing opportunities for
women and minorities—will continue at the present pace unless propelled by a major change
in existing assignment policies or practice.?>

A recent editorial by Andrew Moskos in Black Issues in Higher Education says that blacks have quite

a stake in the conservative military establishment. Unfortunately, “black success in the Army seems
desiined to remain an exception.” 7

Opportunities Gone Tomorrow?

Could it be that Eitelberg’s major change has arrived and the younger Moskos’ Army success will
siop short for military minorities? What will happen to minorities when the nation’s largest employer
starts laying people off by the thousands? Perhaps a simulation would be informative. Table 7, showing
the number and percentage of active duty personnel by race-ethnicity within years of service categories,
provides the starting point. Blacks are somewhat more likely than whites to be in the second term or
beyond. Hispanics, on the other hand, have less tenure than whites.

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education or associate or bachelor’s degree recipients may have a competitive edge in acquiring certain
jobs.

Future Initiatives listed by ACAP MOI include (a) funding for ACAP Transition Centers (for pilot
testing at Fort Myer, VA; Fort Knox, KY; Fort Carson, CO; Fort Polk, LA; St. Louis Area Support
Center, Granite City, IL; Hanau Community, Germany; and Yongsan, Korea) , (b) contracted staffing
for Job Assistance Centers at designated installations, (c) development of state-local government place-
ment agreements to provide job search skills training, skill retraining, and job placement, (d) expansion
of the Office of Personnel Management Displaced Employee Program, and (e) development of a com-
prehensive guide to transition services. The future initiative listed in the ACAP that is directly related to
higher education is “New Careers in Teaching.” This initiative will attempt to identify military and
civilian personnel who have the skill, qualifications, and desire to teach in the nation’s schools and assist
them in meeting state certification requirements. Army education centers will maintain information on
certification requirements, availability of college courses that will assist in meeting certification require-
ments and addresses for state education agencies. Model alternative teacher certification programs are
being pilot tested at Forts Bragg, Gordon, and Myer.

The FY 1991 National Defense Authorization Act spells out the congressional mandate regarding
Transition Assistance. In addition to the congressional guidance, ACAP and the transition initiatives
outlined above are detailed in the Army Veterans Education Guide: A Guide to Education and Career
Opportunities for Today's Army Veteran, compiled, published, and distributed by School Guide Publica-
tions, 210 North Avenue, New Rochelle, NY 10801. School Guide Publications, with the cooperation of
the Education Division at Headquarters Department of the Army, has developed and published a guide
targeted to soldiers and Army veterans annually since 1988 at no expense to the military. Cost are
covered by advertising, primarily from colleges, arranged by School Guide Publications. The preprinted
postage-free reply cards included in the Army Veterans Education Guide are handy for soldiers and
veterans to send for admissions information either to the “Army Veterans Education Guide” or to any
one of the institutions or companies advertised in the Guide. The Army Veterans Education Guide
carries articles by such people as the Colonel Gene Bruce, Director of the Army Continuing Education
System; Ron Atwell, Vice President of the National Association of the Veteran Programs Administra-
tors; Dr. Dennis R. Wyant, Director, Vocational Rehabilitation and Education Service, Department of
Veterans Affairs; Dr. Steve F. Kime, Director, Servicemembers Opportunity Colleges; Joan Schwartz,
Director of Registries, American Council on Education; Rosana M. Nelson, President of the National
Association of Veterans Upward Bound Project Personnel; Dr. Paul Gulyas, President of the National
Association of State Approving Agencies; and selected veterans advisers and coordinators. Considerable
relevant and timely information is contained in this commercially developed Army Veterans Education
Guide for ready use by any soldier or veteran seeking participation in higher education programs.

The Role of the Department of Veterans Affairs (DVA) and
Veterans Coordinators and Advisors

Having to this point concentrated on educational resources available through the military, this paper
will now look briefly 2t education resources provided though the Department of Veterans Affairs and
colleges and universities. As indicated earlier, DVA administers a number of education assistance
programs. The DVA maintains field stations and regional offices to manage these programs and provide
assistance. The state DVA field offices have toll-free telephone service for individuals requesting
information and assistance. The DVA advises individuals to make use of these services. (Wyant 1990,
17) The DVA also prepares and distributes brochures regarding the various education assistance pro-
grams (e.g., Chapter 30, Chapter 106, et al.) These are often used ‘n the mandatory pre-separation
counseling regarding education benefits by in-service education personnel.

In order for servicemembers and veterans to receive educational benefits from DVA, education and
training programs must receive approval from a State Approving Agency (SAA). At least one SAA is

1

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"U.S. Department of Labor submission in U.S. Congress, “Second Annual Report of the Activities of the Joint Committee
on Defense Production” (Washington, D.C., 1952), 266

"Ibid.

19S. Department of Labor submission in U.S. Congress, “Third Annual Report of the Activities of the Joint Committee
on Defense Production,” (Washington, 1954), 153.

*Ibid.

21U,S, Senate, Committee on Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs, Subcommittee on Production and Stabilization,
Problems Relating to Diversification Into Non-Defense Work by Defense Contractors,” Tuesday, May 18, 1971, 5.

"Employment Decline Between 1969 and 1977,” cited in Aviation Week and Space Technology (September 10, 1990), 58.

Gerald Somers, ed., Retraining the Unemployed (Madison, Milwaukee and London: University of Wisconsin Press,
1968), 4.

TM Ibid.

* Ibid, 258. This fund was organized between Armour and Company and the United Packinghouse, Food and Allied
Workers Unions (UPWA) and the Amalgamated Meatcutters and Butcher Workmen of North America.

Arthur J. Alexander, “Defense Industry Conversion in China, the Soviet Union, and the United States,” (RAND
Corporation, May 199u), 55.

2Previous Community Economic Adjustment Experience,” in Economic Conversion/Adjustment, Report prepared by the
President’s Economic Adjustment Committee and the Office of Economic Adjustment, Office of Assistant Secretary of
Defense (Manpower, Installations and Logistics) (Washington, D.C., July 1985), Appendix K, p. K-8

*Ibid, K-10.
*Ibid., K-16.
“Ibid., K-17.
‘*bid., K-21
Alexander, op. cit., 50.

»President’s Economic Adjustment Committee and the Department of Defense Office of Economic Adjustment, Economic
Adjustment/Conversion (July 1985), 9.

TMAlexander, op.cit., 50.
*Ibid.
“Weidenbaum, op. cit., Ch. 4, p. 5.

"Ibid, 6.

Amid Talk of Layoffs, Maryland Defense Companies Remain Upbeat,” Washington Post (Washington Business), July 9,
1990, 12.

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* Specialty schools (e.g., Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University, John Jay College of Criminal
Justice of the City University of New York); and

* Historically black colleges (e.g., Fayetteville State University, Norfolk State University, Paine
College).

Of the 735 SOC institutions, 69 percent are public and 31 percent are private institutions. Colleges
and universities that subscribe to the American Council on Education’s Principles of Good Practice for
Alternative and External Degree Programs For Adults (1990) are generally institutions capable of
supporting the Armed Services and their servicemembers (See Table 9 for an overview of these prin-
ciples).

Table 9.—Overview of the principles of gooc practice for alternative and external degree
programs for adults

Principle 1: Mission Statement

The program has a mission statement that reflects an educational philosophy, goals, purposes, and
general intent and that clearly complements the institutional mission.

Principle 2: Personnel-Faculty and Academic Professionals

Faculty and academic professionals working in alternative and external degree programs share a com-
mitment to serve adult learners and have the attitudes, knowledge, and skills required to teach, advise,
counsel, and assist such students,

Principle 3: Learning Outcomes .

Clearly articulated programmatic learning outcomes frame the comprehensive curriculum as well as
specific learning experiences; in developing these outcomes the program incorperates general student
goals.

Principle 4: Learning Experiences

The program is designed to provide diverse learning experiences that respond to the characteristics and
contexts of adult learners while meeting established academic standards,

Principle 5: Assessment of Student Learning

The assessment of a student’s learning is based on the achievement of comprehensive and specific
learning outcomes.

Principle 6: Student Services

The policies, procedures, and practices of the program take into account the conditions and circum-
stances of the adult learners and promote the success of those students.

Principle 7: Program Administration

The administrative structures and the human, fiscal, and learning resources are sufficient, appropriate,
and stable for accomplishing the program mission.

Principle 8: Program Administration

Evaluation of the program involves faculty, academic professionals, administrators, and students on a
continuing, systematic basis to assure quality and standards, and to stimulate program improvement.

Source: American Council on Education 1990, 8-9.
Performance Data and Information Regarding

In-Service Education Programs

Fiscal Year 1989 data indicate that, throughout the Department of Defense Voluntary Education
Program, over 523,000 individual enrollments occurred in undergraduate courses during that ycar. Over
55, 000 individual enrollments occurred in graduate courses. More than 27,000 degrees were conferred

64



Table A-5.—Percent of parents in each occupational category

Male Parents Female Parents
OCCUPATION Unqual _Reerts CPS Unqual Recrts CPS
Executive, Administrative 10 12 18 6 8 11
Managerial
Professional 5 8 13 10 13 15
Technical 2 3 2 3 wo 3
Sales, 6 8 11 9 ll 10
Clerical, Administrative 5 5 4 25 29
Support
Protective Services 4 3 1 1 1
Other Services 6 4 4 27 21 16
Farming, Forestry, Fishing 4 1 1 1
Precision Production 27 26 22 3 3 3
Machine Operators 12 9 8 12 8 8
Transportation 13 10 8 1 1 1
Handlers, Helpers, Laborers 4 3 4 2 2 2
Military 4 3 0 0.5 0.2 0

Table A-6.—Mcean socioeconomic index scores of parents by sex of parent

Parents of newly unqualified Parents of FY 1989 recruits | CPS Parents

Males 32.2 36.0 40.1
Females 30.8 33.4 36.1

no
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Impact of the Military Drawdown on Youth
Employment, Training and Educational
Opportunity

David W. Grissmer

Introduction

‘World War II, U.S. military forces have been structured primarily on the basis of countering the
threac posed by the Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact. This threat dictated both the size and the mix of
active and reserve Armed Forces. With the disintegration of the Warsaw Pact and the weakening of the
Soviet Union, U.S. military forces will be reduced in size and reconfigured to meet a more diverse set of
smaller threats worldwide.

This near-term reduction in military forces and subsequent long-term smaller military force will affect
the employment, training, and education opportunities for the nation’s youth. For the last 40 years, the
armed services have been the largest employer of male youth. In 1979, 6.7 percent of 18 to 21-year-old
male youth were in the Armed Forces (Kim 1980). The Armed Forces have also employed a dispropor-
tionate percentage of minority youth and an increasing percentage of women since the beginning of the
All Volunteer Army in 1973. In 1979, 9.7 percent of black male youth aged 18 to 21 were in the Armed
Forces, as were 7.6 percent of Hispanic male youth. In that same year, 0.6 percent of women aged 18 to
21 were in the military.

However, when considering the employment effects, a more important comparison is between those
youth working full time and military personnel. in 1979, 14 percent of 18 to 21-year-old male youth
working full time (including military employment) were in the armed services. For blacks and Hispan-
ics, the corresponding figures are 25 percent and 16 percent, respectively. Among 18- to 21-year-old
women working full time, 1.8 percent were in the military, with the corresponding percentages for black
and Hispanic women being 3.8 and 1.4 percent, respectively.

The U.S. military not only serves as an employer, but also provides training and educational opper-
tunities for those entering and leaving the Armed Forces. This training consists of 4 to 5 weeks of “boot
camp” military training followed by 4 weeks to over a year of school training in particular military
occupational skills (MOS). After completion of school training, individuals join units for on-the-job
training that provides approximately half their skill proficiency. This training is supplemented through-
out their career by courses on advanced equipment, supervision, and other subjects.

Approximateiy one-quarter to one-half of military skills have direct civilian counterparts, and military
training is likely to provide enhanced opportunities for civilian earnings and employment. Even for those

Note: The author is deputy director of the Defense Manpower Rescarch Center at the RAND Corpo tion.

37

44



* Quality Improvement Process (QIP) consists of nine basic steps used by a QIP team to improve the
quality of an output or when a new output is being produced.”” Major steps in the QIP include
Planning for Quality, Organizing for Quality, and Monitoring for Quality.

* Statistical Methods include instruction on statistical tools such as histograms, Pareto charts, check-
lists, scatter diagrams, control charts, and other graphs and charts. The use of data is essential in
PSP and QIP, and therefore data interpretation and representation are integral parts of training.

Day/Evening Program

The Day/Evening Program is the core of technical training; there were about 4,000 enrollments during
1990 in this effort. There has been considerable growth in enrollments during the past few years. The
courses offered in the winter quarter of 1991 include Career Development (1 course); Computer Science-
Software Engineering (5); Computer Science-Docuteam Training (4); Computer Science-6085 Training
(5); Electrical Engineering (3); General Business (10); Manufacturing (1); Materials Science (3); Quality
Training (2); and Reprographics (2).?*

A recent study conducted by Development and Manufacturing Technical Education and Management
Training indicates that in the Day/Evening Program, 85 percent of the people are involved in technical
training programs and 80 percent of the time (student-days) is spent on technical subjects. In contrast, 30
percent of the people are involved in general business courses, and 20 percent of time is spent on general
business subjects. The D&M training department finds this encouraging because the provision of
technical training is their primary goal, with general business skills offered as more of a supplementary
enrichment. The time involved in these courses ranges from 2-hour sessions to courses that meet all day
for 2 days a week. On a per-course basis, Day/Evening Program class chargebacks for the winter quarter
in 1991 range from $100 (e.g., for the 7-hour 1-day course “Just-In-Time Manufacturing Overview”) to
$1,600 (e.g., for the 100 hour, 40-week course “The Professional Engineering Review Program”). Such
wide ranges in cost are based on the time and resources necessary to provide the training.

Distance Learning Program
The Distance Learning Program provides technical and management courses offered through either
satellite video programs or scheduled on-site classes. The coursework and degrees offered include:

* Masters of Science in Computer Science, Computer Engineering, Electrical Engineering, Engineer-
ing Management, Manufacturing Systems Engineering, and Materials Science, and short non-credit
courses from the National Technological University;

* Masters of Science in Computer Science, Operations Research and Industrial Engineering, Elec-
trical Engineering, and Materials Science from Cornell University;

* Masters of Science and Certification programs in Manufacturing Systems Engineering, Mechanical
Engineering, and Computer Science from Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute; and

* Masters of Science in Instructional Technology from Rochester Institute of Technology.
There are approximately 120 enrollments in these courses each year; 24 employees are currently

working on degrees from NTU, and 20 employees are seeking a degree from Rochester Institute of
Technology. There are 1,000 annual enrollments in non-credit satellite courses.

Learning Center
The Learning Center offers self-instructional courses throughout the year. Audio and video tapes may

be used in the center’s lab or takcn home. There are approximately 1,000 enrollments in these self-paid
courses each year. Unlike the Day/Evening Program, the quantity of courses taken has remained rela-

161 186i



General Colin Powell, currently the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told the Army’s Forces
Command Commanders in i989;

As commanders, we can all think of instances in which the value of continuing education has
been demonstrated to us personally and professionally. We should reflect on that value as it
pertains to our uniformed and civilian components. Continuing education strengthens the
foundation for training and improved job performance; it causes the force to develop intellec-
tually, enhances promotion potential, and allows individuals to work toward personal and
professional goals (Powell 1990, 1).

Education Incentive Programs

Veterans’ educational benefits in America have roots that reach back to the colonial era and the
Revolutionary War. Historically, veteran’s benefits have been considered compensation for men and
women who have served honorably in the Armed Forces during wartime (Esposito 1989). Three GI Bills
existed from 1944 to 1976 (World War Il, Korea, and Vietnam era). These entitlements permitted

millions of veterans to participate in educational programs and build lives for themselves and their
families in the civilian world.

With the deletion of the military draft, the All Volunteer Army was struggling for survival in the post-
Vietnam environment both as a concept and as an operational military force. Recruitment goals were
unattainable even with acceptance of large numbers of non-high school graduates and personnel with
below-average Armed Services Vocational Aptitude Battery (ASVAB) scores. Educational incentives
were-critical to entice bright, ambitious young people to enlist and reenlist in either the active-duty or
reserve forces of the all-voluntary Armed Forces.

The introduction of the Veterans Educational Assistance Program (VEAP) in 1977 marked a major
policy change in the purpose and design of educational benefits. Prior to 1977, GI Bill benefits were
entirely funded by the Veterans Administration with no payments required of servicemembers, Begin-
ning with VEAP, the Congress shifted to a contributory system of matching funds. Today, education
incentives, including the Montgomery GI Bill and special “kickers” such as the Army and Navy College
Funds, are recognized ways the federal government encourages the recruitment and retention of capable
servicemembers. Such incentives can be extremely valuable to the serious servicemember-student who is
interested in receiving a quality college education but is short on cash. Many “above average” high
school graduates are attracted by these incentives, especially when coupled with tuition assistance of up
to 75 percent for approved courses taken while in service.

On October 19, 1984, Public Law 98-525 was signed, establishing the “new GI Bill.” It was made
permanent in 1987 an’ its name changed to the Montgomery GI Bill. By December 1989, 1 million
servicemembers had signed up to participate by committing themselves to contribute $1,200 from their
military pay. This money is not reimbursable to the servicemember unless used for educational purposes
through the program. February 1990 statistics show the Army with 88 percent of its new recruits con-
tributing $1,200; the Navy, 82 percent; the Air Force, 77 percent; and the Marine Corps, 87 percent
(Montgomery 1990).

Representative G.V. “Sonny” Montgomery comments on the Montgomery GI Bill:

Now, nearing the fifth anniversary, the Montgomery GI Bill has been hailed by one of our
military leaders as “the most significant legislation this century.” In the opinion of many, it is
responsible for saving the All Voluntary Force because of the attractiveness of its education
benefits to a dwindling pool of eligible recruits . . . Education, more than any one element of
our society, will determine our course as a free and productive country. (Montgomery 1990, 1-2)

58


Opportunities Here Today

According to Richard Halloran of The New York Times, “many blacks say they have found the
Services perhaps the best equal opportunity employers in America.” Military service is an appealing
avenue for racial-ethnic minorities, particularly blacks, as evidenced by relatively high enlistment rates
and participation among these minority groups. African Americans have pursued military entry (with
varying degrees of success) since the days of the Revolution. Their numbers and proportions among the
rank and file since that time have ebbed and flowed depending primarily on manpower needs. However,
the inception of the All-Volunteer Force (AVF) in 1973 genera ‘ly demarcates a period of sustained
growth in minority representation in the military, as Table 2 attests.

Table 2.—Blacks' as a percentage of total first-time accessions by service and total military,

Fiscal Years 1973-90
Service
Fiscal Marine Air Total
year Army Navy Corps Force DoD
1973 19.5 10.8 214 14.5 16.9
1974 27.2 10.5 21.2 16.6 20.6
1975 22.9 10.1 19.4 13.4 17.6
1976 24.4 8.7 15.9 99 16.9
1977 29.4 10.8 20.5 11.1 20.0
1978 34.3 12.6 23.8 13.6 22.9
1979 36.8 15.6 275 16.5 26.0
1980 29.9 13.4 23.3 15.0 22.1
1981 273 12.5 17.7 14.1 18.9
1982 24.6 13.4 17.5 15.5 18.8
1983 22.0 14.1 17.1 14.2 17.9
1984 22.6 14.8 1715 13.6 18.3
1985 22.5 15.4 18.5 15.5 18.6
1986 22.4 173 17.1 16.1 19.1
1987 23.4 19.0 18.0 13.9 19.7
1988 25.1 20.1 18.3 13.1 20.7
1989 26.4 21.6 i7.9 12.7 217
1990? 25.8 20.4 17.4 12.9 20.5

Source: Adapted from Department of Defense, Population Representation in the Military Services. (Washington, DC:
Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense [Force Management and Personnel], 1990, 1989, 1988).

'Blacks include Black Hispanics.

*The source for the 1990 percentages is the Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense. These numibers are through June
1990.

Compared to the percentage of blacks among the youth population, which is just shy of 15 percent,
this minority group is clearly overrepresented among those who choose to enter the military. Black
Tepresentation is particularly high in the Army. With the exception of a slight downtum following the
period from 1976 to 1980,’ the black accession percentage has risen. In 1989, the military services took
in about 1.7 percent or just over 60,000 members of the popu:stion of 18- through 24-year-old blacks
(totaling 3.5 million), while just under 1 percent or almost 202,000 of the 21 million whites of compar-
able ages entered the enlisted ranks. Among male youth specifically, the percentage of whites was 1.7

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disiocation occurs. Industry has also become involved in promoting the reemployment of its workforce.
For longer-term recovery, Congress and the executive branch have taken significant steps to improve the
health and competitiveness of important U.S. industries—both commercial and defense. This includes
the development of a critical technologies plan that will ensure adequate effort to establish and maintain
leadership in the “dual-use” markets of the future. However, the most significant long-run initiative for
workers facing defense cuts is initial steps toward civil-military integration, which will enhance our

ability to make effective and continuing use of our industrial as well as human assets as market priorities
change.

Although it is too late to initiate planning, diversification, and reemployment efforts before defense
cutbacks begin, it is likely that these cutbacks will continue at a moderate pace for a number of years.
Therefore, we still have the opportunity to mitigate the impact of future defense cutbacks with actions
we take now.

148

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References

Austin, Richard H., Secretary of State, Michigan Department of State, Lansing, MI, 1990.

Enlisted Career Management Fields and Military Occupational Specialties, Headquarters Department of the Army, Army
Regulation 611-201, Washington, D.C., October 31, 1987.

Holliday, Captain James, U.S. Army ROTC, Personal interview, Ferris State University, Big Rapids, M1, September 1990.
Michigan Department of Licensing and Regulation, Builders, Lansing, MI, 1990.

Military Career Guide: Employment and Training Opportunities in the Military, U.S. Department of Defense, Government
Printing Gffice, Washington, D.C., 1985.

“The 1988 Guide to the Evaluation of Educatioral Experiences in the Armed Services: 1. Anny Courses, 2. Army MOS's,
3. Navy, 4. Air Force, Coast Guard,” Department of Defense, Marine Corps and Coast Guard Occupations, American
Council on Education, Washington, D.C.

91 Oe



Table 4.—Veterans using education benefits at colleges and universities, 1989

Program Total enrollments 2-year 4-year
VEAP 75,471 29,294 46,177
MGIB-active duty 22,593 11,296* 11,297*
MGIB-reserve 90,584 NA NA
Total 188,648

“Breakdowns of MGIB-active duty enrollment are estimates based on program history provided by the Department of
Veterans Affairs, which shows that to date, enrollment has been split evenly between two-year and four-year programs.

Source: Department of Veterans Affairs, unpublished data.

More detailed information on veterans as part of all postsecondary education students will be
available from the 1991 NPSAS study. Meanwhile, the 1986 snapshot of undergraduate financing of
postsecondary education (NPSAS) included a question on student veteran’s status, enabling us to
describe the 1986 population of veterans in colleges and universities on some characteristics. In 1986,
73.5 percent of veterans received some aid. Veterans comprised 3.2 percent of all full-time students;
approximately the same percentage of part-time students were veterans, 3.7 percent.

In 1986, students who were veterans were primarily concentrated in the fields of construction, engi-
neering technologies, and mechanical repair. The highest proportion of veterans were in institutional
programs of 2 to 3 years duration. Reportedly, most veterans listed “no formal award” as their educa-
tional objective. The next highest goal reported by veterans was an associate degree or certificate. The
education of mothers and fathers of veterans and nonveterans was similar across a number of categories.
‘The percentage of nonveterans with mothers and fathers who had earned 4-year degrees and above was

much higher than that of veterans, but the percentage comparisons for high school graduates were very
similar.

The recent inception of the Montgomery GI Bill accounts for the fact that relatively few veterans
using these benefits have enrolled to date—about 23,500 former active duty personnel and roughly
144,000 members of the Selected Reserve. Based on continuing high sign-up rates, the DVA projects

that the number making use of new GI Bill benefits will swell to more than haif a million by 1995
(see Table 5).

Table 5.—Veterans using education benefits, actual and projected, 1989-1995

Actual Projected

Program 1989 90 91 92 93 94 95
VEAP 83,334 71,882 64,700 56,500 48,600 41,200 34,200
MGIB

active 23,830 116,500 162,300 214,200 280,000 345,900 400,200
MGIB

reserve 90,584 124,100 136,400 140,900 143,600 146,100 146,100
Total 197,748 312,482 363,400 411,600 472,200 533,200 580,500

Source: Department of Veterans Affairs, unpublished data.

177

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at
fons



Table 5.—Civilian labor force (millions)

Labor force Employed Unemployed
20-24 25-34 20-24 25-34 20-24 25-34
Male 7.69 19.74 6.92 18.70 68 1.04

The decline of 278,000 males employed in the military with YOS 1-5 represents an increase of less
than 4 percent in the 20- to 24-year-old civilian labor force. The decline of 102,000 in the male YOS
6-15 group represents an increase in the 25- to 34-year-old civilian labor force of 0.5 percent.

The effect on the unemployment rate for these groups is impossible to predict. Some of these indi-
viduals may find jobs which would have not been created without the availability of the additional
leavers from the military. Others may find jobs which would have gone to others. The unemployment
effect will depend on precisely what kinds of substitutions occur. If substitutions occur strictly within
the male 20- to 24-year-old age group, then 20- to 24-year-old unemployment effects will be larger than
if substitution occurs for older or younger males or for women.

The unemployment effect also depends partly on these youths’ employability and the extent to which
they might substitute for men and women of similar age or others. It also depends on the specific
economic conditions present. If 1988 economic conditions had prevailed, the labor force increase of
278,000 in the aged group 20 to 24 would occur in conjunction with 680,000 in that age group already
unemployed. For the older group, the increase of 102,000 would coincide with 1,040,000 unemployed.
The unemployment effects will certainly be much smaller than assuming that all increases in the labor
force would fall into the unemployment pool. More likely one-quarter to one-third might fall into the
unemployed pool, and this would raise the younger age unemployment rates by 1 to 1.5 percent, while it
would increase the older rate by 0.3 percent.

During the transition period, the military employment of the junior group will be somewhat lower by
about 25,000. However, this would represent only a small additional increase in unemployment during
the drawdown period.

The Training Effect

Table 6 shows the number of military personnel in YOS 1 under the two scenarios and for the differ-
ent time periods. In the long term, the data shows an approximately 75,000 to 80,000 decline in the
number of youth annually receiving military training from levels in the 1980s. This is about a 28 percent
decline. The more junior drawdown shows a decline of an additional 10,000 annually during the draw-
down period. If we make similar assumptions as above for the percentage of males in this group, then

this represents about 4 to 5 percent of the future civilian 20- to 24-year-old labor force who will not
receive military training.

Table 6.—Number of YOS 1 personnel (thousands)

% Change % Change
(1980-89 to (1980-89 to
Scenario 1980-89 1992-96 1992-96) 2000-10 2000-10)
Junior 274 188 31 198 28
Senior 274 195 29 195 29

This group will then be dependent on civilian employers or schools for training. If these individuals
are employed in the civilian labor force, the training received from civilian employers will be more



The key benefit of our model and the NOCTI testing process is the result each test taker receives,
Beyond a total score for the written test and a total score for the performance test, NOCTI tests yield
diagnosis-like sub-scores which parallel major skill areas required in the occupation. Accordingly, the
test results exhibit the candidates’ strengths and weaknesses in the various skill areas required in the
occupation. A sample score report is provided in Appendix E.

An individual who has completed a NOCTI exam is equipped with a credential which reflects his or
her demonstrated occupational competency on a nationally standardized occupational competency
examination. This credential, in the form of a diagnostic printout, can be presented to potential employ-
ers as evidence of competency, used by officials to grant college or university credit, or studied to assess
the additional training or experience necessary to equip the test taker for occupational competency.

As seen in our conceptual model, often no additional training or experience may be necessary to move
from the military sector to a comparable occupational career in the civilian work force. Occupational
competency documented through the NOCTI test is all that is needed as a credential to present to
employers.

An additional benefit to employers who use the NOCTI test results wisely is better productivity. The
test results can help employers place new employees in the areas which reflect their highest skills. Also
most employees like to do what they are good at. This translates into higher productivity, greater worker
satisfaction, and less absenteeism. For the worker, this means a better work record and a greater chance
of advancement. Truly a winning formula for all concerned.

Additional Training/Education

Those who find from the NOCTI test results that they need additional training have a host of options.
Federal legislation has ensured that all states have vocational/technical education programs. These
programs are conducted at public secondary and postsecondary technical schools, community and junior
colleges, technical colleges, and institutes as well as through private institutions and proprietary schools.
Having examined these programs over the years as a vocational administrator, teacher educator, and
accreditation team member, I have discovered that they all have the same objective: to provide graduates
with the skills necessary for employment in the occupation for which they are being trained. The only
difference in these programs is the extent to which they go beyond what is required for minimum job
readiness.

The skills which are necessary to be - welder are the same throughout the country and therefore the
core skills taught in good welding training programs around the country are the same. The NOCTI
exams were also all built on the premise that core occupational competency for a particular occupation is
the same across the country. NOCTI test results can therefore be universally interpreted by most voca-
tional/technical teachers and administrators or by area test center coordinators,

An important aspect of NOCTI test results is that they can easily be equated to academic credit.
Faculty members can examine the tests and determine what score levels are required to receive credit for
which course(s). This process has long been accepted practice in education. Many schools reluctant to
grant credit for military or civilian training or experience are willing to translate demonstrated skill on a
national exam to academic credit. Appendix F lists the many institutions nationally which grant credit
for NOCTI test results. Generally SOCAT test results are equated to credit toward an associate degree
and TOCT test results toward a bachelor’s degree. This doesn’t mean a person moving from the military
to a civilian job who needs additional training as determined by the NOCTI test must be on a degree
track. With the current shortage of technically trained people in the work force, that certainly is not the
case. Getting on a degree track is just another option facilitated by the NOCTI testing program.

"89



In the long run, a loss of this avenue for college aid will dampen higher education participation,
particularly for middle-class students who tend to go directly to higher education, thereby placing an
additional burden on stucent assistance funds. Those students who were counting on assistance through
ROTC will have to apply for traditional assistance programs or delay entry into postsecondary educa-
tion, earning MGIB benefits through military service. In an effort to reduce programs, services are
offering cadets release from military service. Those released will then have to repay the benefits re-
ceived. The payback period established is 10 years, with an interest rate of 9 percent.'®

Student Assistance Programs: Flexibility
for Unanticipated Demand?

During the periodic review of the Higher Education Act, policymakers and educators ask whether the
policies of student assistance are working to improve access to postsecondary education for all qualified
students. Anticipating reauthorization hearings in the spring of 1991, higher education representatives
looked at a number of proposals which could change the programs themselves, the amount of aid
provided, and the role of the institutions in aid distribution. Some changes were also made in the recent
(1990) budget reconciliation process. These proposals and changes, while not directly related to the
education and training needs of military or prospective military, may affect their participation in assis-
tance programs,

Family income is one of the key elements in the student allocation systems and has consistently
fueled federal education policy on assistance. Mortenson and Wu examine previous studies relating
higher education participation to income. They try to answer the question: Has student financial aid
made a difference in the participation of the economically disadvantaged in postsecondary education?
The authors conclude there is little evidence to suggest achievement of broad public policy goals.”

Other studies have examined changes made or anticipated to the student assistance programs and have
predicted declines in participation rates or attributed declines in participation rates of students from low-
income families to these changes. In a discussion paper on enrollments in the 1980s, Clotfelter reviews
such recent research, including Manski and Wise, Blakemore and Low, Schwartz, Hansen, and
McPherson. Findings from the body of this research are relevant to our discussion of challenges to
federal student aid policy:

* Enrollment changes are directly related to socioeconomic levels and the composition of the student
aid programs indicates which groups will be adversely affected;

* Minorities are experiencing a stagnating rate of participation;

+ Enrollment increases have been documented for students in income groups above the median
income level;

« Excess demand for college has allowed institutions to establish higher admissions standards,
thereby restricting access; and

+ Because of excess demand, more selective colleges were able to charge more without the negative
effect of declining enrollments.!*

Findings from 10-year analyses of racial and ethnic trends in college participation support these
studies of factors and influences. The American Council on Education reported that between 1976 and
1988 the numbers of black and Hispanic students enrolled in college increased. However, the percentage
of black and Hispanic high school graduates attending college declined. Family income was found to be
negatively related to high school completion rates for blacks and Hispanics. Finally, increases in black,
Hispanic, and American Indian enrollment tended to be concentrated in two-year institutions. Between

1976 and 1988 enrollment in two-year colleges rose twice as fast as enrollment in four-year colleges and
universities."

sr 186



The estimates in columns (1) and (2) of Table 6 were computed using a sample expanded to include
women and veterans aged 25 to 29 with any length of service. The selected sample used to produce the
estimates in columns (3) and (4) is the same as in Table 1 with the addition of men aged 25 to 29. The
instrument list for the expanded sample, which includes female veterans, also includes interactions of the
period-of-service/entry-level schooling interactions with a sex dummy. To produce the estimates in
columns (1) and (3), the instrument list was further expanded by interacting the period-of-service/entry-
level schooling interaction terms with age dummies, so that the reduced form effect of the excluded
instruments is free to vary with age. Columns (2) and (4) show the results of expanding the instrument
list to include interactions of the excluded instruments with length-of-service dummies as well as with
age dummies.

The TSLS estimates of the effect of veterans benefits in Table 6 are remarkably similar to those in
Table 3. The estimates range from 0.720 in column (4), to 1.75 in column (1). Column (2) shows an
estimate of 1.54 with a standard error of 0.614, the most precisely estimated treatment effect in the table.
Finally, Table 6 also reports the chi-square test statistic for instrument-error orthogonality. In no case
does the test statistic exceed its degrees of freedom. Overall, these tesults suggest that estimates of the
effects of benefit usage on grade increment are not an artifact of program eligibility rules or self-selec-
tion.’ It should be noted, however, that TSLS estimates based on the transition from the GI Bill to
VEAP probably include a mixture of pure program-use effects a: ‘ effects arising from the use of a less
generous program.

5. Summary and Conclusions

Educational subsidies for veterans constitute the largest single federal program of student aid. The
impact of veterans benefits on education is estimated here by focusing on the postservice grade incre-
ment, a strategy that controls for individual effects in the level of education. The use of veterans benefits
is associated with a postservice grade increment of roughly 1.4 years. The effect of veterans benefits on
earnings is estimated by decomposing the return to education into a return to grade completed at entry,
and a return to postservice grade increment. The grade increment is worth roughly 4.3 percent so that use
of veterans benefits raises earnings by around 6 percent. This premium appears to accrue primarily to the
77 percent of benefit users who attended college or graduate school.

Two-Stage Least Squares estimates of the effect of veterans benefits on grade increment are also
computed. The excluded instruments in this case are interactions between period of service and entry-
level schooling. Use of interaction terms as instruments exploits the variance in program use by period
of service while controlling for secular period-of-service and entry-level schooling effects. TSLS esti-
mates of the grade increment equations are remarkably similar to the OLS estimates.

The 6 percent premium for benefit users is an important part of the compensation package for veter-
ans, but it does not appear to be enough to overcome the average 15 percent earnings loss to veterans of
the Vietnam era (Angrist 1990). Another important question is whether veterans benefits are a cost-
effective form of compensation. To answer this requires a detailed study of the costs of administering
veterans programs, the tuition and opportunity cost of schooling, and the offset of program costs through
higher tax payments from more educated workers. A crude calculation, however, shows that discounted
at 10 percent per year, the 36-month total GI Bill payment was worth $10,209 in 1978 and $17,151 in
1986. Evaluating the 6 percent premium for benefit users at the average 1986 earnings of veterans gives
an annual value of $1,708. Over a 30-year working life this premium has a discounted 1986 dollar value
of $17,717. These simple calculations suggest that veterans benefits may not be socially wasteful.



Another of the many institutions that have made a strong commitment to voluntary education in the
military services is Park College, whose main campus is located in Parkville, Missouri. Currently it has
military resident centers at 33 military installations (Air Force, Army, Navy, and Marine Corps) as well
as at National Guard and Reserve Units. Its largest degree completion programs are in Management and
Computer Science. President Donald J. Breckon describes Park College’s Military Resident Center
System:

Park College employs administrators at all these sites, along with support staff members. A
senior faculty member is employed to be academic director. The administrator and academic
director combine their efforts to locate faculty, all of whom have credentials reviewed,
evaluated and courses approved by the program coordinators on the home campus, An
elaborate faculty development program exists, as well as peer, self, and student evaluation
accomplished with the annual Faculty Performance Review.

Classrooms are designated, computer labs are established and programs are implemented. The
key to all such programs is provision for student services.

Registrations are handled on site, as well as the processing of financial aids and benefits. Text
books are sold on site. Written program plans are developed for each student, that lists all
courses required for the degree, with a term course completion schedule of academic require-
ments. A transcript is generated at the end of each semester instead of a grade report, so that
students always have an up-to-date list of courses completed, and courses remaining are
indicated on their program plans.

Attendance policies accommodate military mission commitments, as for example “temporary
duty assignment.” Classes are scheduled in eight- and nine-week terms, so as to complement
rather than deter from the primary military mission commitment.

Libraries are established on the base, and students are given access to the home campus
library via computer and modem.

American Council on Education guidelines for awarding military credit are fully utilized, as are
CLEP and DANTES exams. The Park College student is thus assured of as much advanced
placement as can be justified through recognized academic criteria. (Breckon 1989, 12-13)

Even though each supporting institution has its own policies and procedures the policies and proce-

dures, outlined above, can serve as an example. A broad cross-section of institutions support the military
student, including:

Public community, junior, and technical colleges (e.g., Barton County Community College, Big
Bend Community College, Brookdale Community College, Central Texas College, City Colleges
of Chicago, Pikes Peak Community College, Trident Technical College);

* S>nior state institutions (e.g., Austin Peay State University, Cameron University, Florida State
University, Indiana University, Kansas State University, New Mexico State University, Northwest-
ern State University of Louisiana, Ohio University, Oklahema State University, Troy State Univer-
sity, University of Alaska-Anchorage, University of Louisville, University of South Carolina);

© Two-year private colleges (e.g., Dean Junior College, Fisher College, Georgia Military College,
Newbury College, Sullivan Junior College of Business);

+ Senior private colleges and universities (e.g., Chaminade University of Honolulu, Chapman
College, Hawaii Pacific University, New York Institute of Technology, Strayer College, Upper
Towa University);

+ Institutions with religious affiliations ( e.g., Incammate Word College, Lakeland College, Liberty
University, Methodist College, Our Lady of the Lake University of San Antonio, Saint Leo
College, Wayland Baptist University);

63

fap)
ion)



Civilian Occupations

Central to establishing a process which facilities the movement of military personnel into the civilian
work force are the means to ensure that these skills are fully documented. This process can not merely
focus on low-level, low-paying jobs but must recognize and document the skills and knowledge military
personnel have acquired through training and experience. Many military personnel have expertise which
is in high demand in the civilian work place. The NOCTI exam enables people to document their skills
and exhibit an appropriate credential to potential employers. As discussed in the previous section, the
NOCTI results enable an employer to fully appreciate job seekers’ skills so they can be placed in
positions which maximize their potential productivity.

Teaching/training is a career many in the military may not have considered, but the current demand
for vocational/technical teachers and trainers in business and industry is huge. Many of these jobs
require training and occupational experience but not a bachelor’s degree. Since most states require the
NOCTI TOCT to teach in public schools, a person leaving the military with the correct training, work
experience, and passage of the NOCTI TOCT could move right into a teaching career. If a bachelor’s
degree is required or if an individual wishes to pursue a degree, the mechanism to grant credit toward the
degree is set up in almost every state. Teacher certification requirements involving the use of NOCTI
TOCT’s are outlined in Appendix F.

Practical Applications

In order to demonstrate practical applications of the conceptual model, 10 NOCTI TOCT occupa-
tional competency examinations corresponding to 10 or more military occupational MOS training
programs have been selected. The .nilitary occupational areas selected have very similar counterparts in
all branches of the service so that the broadest impact could be demonstrated. Under each exam title is
listed the appropriate MOS training/competencies as well as state and/or national licensure implications.

1, NOCTI test title: Quantity Food Preparation (TOCT Test Code 017)

MOS: Food Service Specialist (Army MOS-94B-002; similar occupational titles in other
branches)

Training/competencies: Plans food menus; prepares, cooks and serves food; performs food
service advisory and administrative activities; operates and maintains food service
equipment.

State/national licensure implications: Generally states do not license individuals associated with
food service, although the facilities may need to be licensed.

2. NOCTI test title: Computer Technology (TOCT test code 026)

MOS: Data Processing Technician (Navy NER-DP- 002; similar occupational titles in other
branches)

Training/competencies; Operates data processing equipment and peripherals; constructs flow
charts; prepares and maintains program run books; writes, debugs, and documents Cobol
and Fortran; performs computer maintenance.

State/national licensure implications: None

3. NOCTI test title: Electronics Communications (TOCT test code 015)
MOS: Electronic Technician (Navy NER-ET- 002; similar occupaiional titles in other branches)
Training/Competencies: Performs mainienance of electronic equipment and components; reads
schematic diagrams; localizes malfunctions; replaces parts or subassemblies; aligns,
adjusts, calibrates, and performs preventative maintenance on equipment.
State/national licensure implications: Generally no licensure is required for electronics
technicians.

87 90



Appendix A
Job Competency Assessment Methodology

The following steps comprise the essential components of the Job Competency Assessment (JCA)
methodology:

1) Identifying, through expert panels, those characteristics that superior performers use to make
themselves highly successful. After an introduction to the purpose of the project and the JCA
approach, panel facilitators lead in-depth discussions and brainstorming sessicns in a structured
but open format. The primary purpose of the panels is to define the major accountabilities and
responsibilities of the target positions, and to “nominate” competencies which appear to distin-
guish superior and threshold performance. These panels also outline the important responsi-
bilities, accountabilities, and potential or real obstacles to high-level performance and compare
the personal characteristics of threshold and superior performers.

2) Administering a questionnaire asking for the job competencies which are more characteristic of
superior performers than average performers with whom the respondent is familiar. This inven-
tory consists of a “dictionary” of competencies created from hundreds of JCA studies in
management jobs.

3) Conducting in-depth interviews, called Behavioral Event Interviews (BEIs), with a sample of
superior job incumbents and a sample of average job incumbents. The BEI uses a structured but
nondirective format. First, participants are asked to select an actual workplace situation or event
that was either a particularly “high” point for them—when they were especially pleased with the
way things went or the way things timed out—or a particularly “low” point for them—when
things did not go well or turn out well for them. This mode of questioning does not lead the
interviewee by defining what aspects of the job are important, but rather obtains information that
is important to them. “Low” point events are important in that they identify competencies, such as
tenacity, that are most often necessary in difficult situations. Second, the BEI requests informa-
tion about thoughts and feelings ‘n addition to observable behavior and actions. This a!!ows the
motives, values, and cognitive skills to be identified as well.

Once a situation or event is in focus, the interviewer asks the part'zipant to describe the entire event in
great detail, specifically responding to these questions:

© What led up to the situation? Who was involved?
* What did you do?

* What did you think, feel?

* What did you say?

¢ What was the outcome of the situation?

Three to five situations are described in the interview. Interviews are tape recorded with the knowl-
edge and approval of the participants, and transcribed and coded for analysis.

125



difference-in-differences procedure are briefly discussed. Differences-in-differences estimates are based
on the following version of equations (1) and (3):

(O) By = 6B + O + diy + ti,

where t; = 0 or 1 to indicate information on i at entry to service or on the survey date, so that t)B is a
period-specific intercept. The OLS estimate of y in (7) is

(8) ‘¥= @tu - ou) - Gin - on)»

where e1; denotes average schooling in period t by group j, and j = u or n to indicate program use or
nonuse.

Equation (8) is simply the difference in the change in schooling between program users and nonusers.
It is apparent from (7) that such an estimate controls for secular individual and period effects. The
statistics underlying estimates of y are laid out in Table 2. The top half of the table shows mean levels of
schooling by period and by program use for the selected sample discussed in Table 1. Column (1) shows
that men'who did not use any VA education benefit increased their schooling by 0.65 years, while
Column (2) indicates that men who used benefits increased their schooling by 2.03 years. The difference
in these two increments, 1.39 years, is the estimated effect of veterans benefits. Note that Table 2
illustrates the importance of controlling fot individual characteristics. The difference in the first row of
the table indicates that VA program users were more educated than nonusers even before entering the
military.

Table 2.—Educational attainment before and after military service (standard errors in
parentheses)

Selected sample (n = 2,388)

Difference
No VA Used VA (standard error)
qa) (2) Q)
Before 12.48 12.61 0.13
(0.072)
After 13.13 14.64 1.51
(0.082)
Difference 0.65 2.03
(standard error) (0.045) (0.039)
Difference-in-differences: 1.39
(0.060)
Vietnam-era enlisted non-draftees (n = 1,506)
Before 11.97 12.23 0.26
(0.072)
After 12.77 14.39 1,62
(0.094)
Difference 0.80 2.16
(standard error) (0.062) (0.050)
Difference-in-differences; 1.36
(0.080)

NOTES: Selected sample described in the notes to Table 1. Educational attainment is years of completed schooling.
Variable coding is described in the appendix.

201

199



c

d.

Self-Confidence (SCF)

+ Sees self as among the best or mes‘ capable in this job.

« Approaches new challenges with a confident “can-do” attitude.

* Presents self crisply, forcefully, and impressively.

Expresses confidence about own interpretation or viewpoint.

* Offers suggestions to superiors; challenges or questions actions of superior or customer.
* Accepts full responsibility when things go wrong.

Logical Thinking

* Analyzes situations logically, to identify causes.

¢ Draws logical conclusions.

* Thinks of several possible explanations for a situation.

* Sees the implications of events or information.

* Undertakes a complex task by breaking it down into manageable parts in a systematic, detailed

way: forms and tests hypotheses; arranges and presents large amounts of infermation in a clear,
concise, step-by-step manner.

Human Resource Management Cluster

a.

Managing Group Processes

+ Keeps people informed, clear, and up to date.

* Involves others in issues that may affect them.

¢ Ensures that members of a group contribute to a process; encourages initiative.

* Solicits the input of others who are affected by planned activities.

* Gives credit or recognition to others who have contributed to a project’s success; shows respect
for others’ expertise.

« Demonstrates concern for treating people fairly and equitably.

« Demonstrates group process skills.

. Use of Socialized Power

* Develops and uses subtle strategies to influence others.

* Does things to make others feel ownership in his or her own solutions or proposals.
* Uses experts or third parties to influence.

* Selects and screens the information to be given to others.

+ Develops and uses networks of contracts.

* Offers trade-offs to others to get their cooperation or support.

Accurate Self-Assessment (ASA)
¢ Learns from own experience and mistakes.
* Recognizes own limits and seeks assistance.

. Positive Regard

« Expresses positive expectations of others—believes others want to do their best and make a
contribution to the organization.

Focussing on Others Cluster

a.

Perceptual Objectivity

* Removes personal biases from his or her views.

* Comprehends multiple perspectives simultaneously.

¢ Distances himself or herself from emotional involvement in decisions.

128

~~
wo
Co



AFOQT category Percentile range

I 93-99
0 65-92
TMA 50-64
IB 31-49
IV 10-30
Vv 1-9

Each of the services sets formal minimum ASVAB standards and, when recruiting conditions permit,
“specifies higher quality goals. Applicants scoring in the lowest AFQT category—Category V—are
ineligible by law to enlist. Category IV recruits are enlisted sparingly, with actual ceilings applied.
Those scoring within Categories I through IIIA are actively sought for enlistment.

Since the mid-1980s, the services have enjoyed a quality bonanza. Over 90 percent of new recruits
have had a high school diploma and about the same percentage have scored above Category IV. In FY
1989, about 90 percent of entering first-time recruits had a regular diploma (and additional 6 percent had
alternative secondary school credentials) and 94 percent scored above Category IV. This impressive
figure was even down a percent from the previous year. The services have maintained quality despite
being immersed in the low point of the declining prime manpower pool. As end-strength and manpower
requirements are shaved over the ensuing years, the services no doubt will want to get choosier and
choosier as to who dons a uniform. The majority/minority score differential may hurt the latter in terms
of qualification for military entry even more than before. The median AFQT percentile score for 18- to
24-year old whites is 59; for blacks it is 17; and for Hispanics it is 23. While 78 percent of white youth
can be expected to score above Category IV, only 28 percent of blacks and 41 percent of Hispanics tend
to score within the upper ranges.”’ Minorities also score lower on the other ASVAB composites used for

enlistment qualification and job classification. This does not bode well for continued minority access to
the benefits of military service.

Under 1984 minimum aptitude and education standards for enlistment, about 85 percent of white
youth would qualify for the Army. The corresponding figures for blacks and Hispanics are 43 and 53
percent, respectively. The qualification rates for other services would be even lower. For example, again
using minimum standards, roughly 22 percent of black youth would probably qualify for the Air Force.”*
And these rates are based upon the minimum “on the books” standards rather than the more restrictive
operational cutting scores and quality goals. The odds of qualifying for service entry may get even worse.

Qualifying for selective military occupations is another matter. Again, test scores often preclude many
minorities from gaining access to “high-tech” electronics technician jobs. Instead they serve dispropor-
tionately in functional support and supply jobs. All in all, blacks could be hit at both ends. They may not
gain entry and they may be more likely to suffer from RIFs.

Adverse Impact

Let’s assume that the test is fair. Actually, the ASVAB has been subjected to intense scrutiny and
“outside” testing experts have given the military’s selection device high marks. But, though it may be
free from statistical bias, this does not prevent adverse impact. Sure blacks are overrepresented in the
military relative to population proportions, but not relative to military applicant proportions, which is
the standard base from which to determine adverse impact or the lack of “outcome” faimess in selec-
tion.”° Fiscal 1989 data indicate that 25 percent of applicants were black, but only 22 percent of acces-
sions. The corresponding percentages for whites were 68 and 73. While the customary “4/5 rule” was
probably met from this perspective, what the figures don’t tell you is that many people are screened out

31


had learned to use the tools and techniques for quality improvement, they then trained the staff who
reported directly to them. This “cascading” process, whereby the training goes from the top down, took
4 years to train all employees, but it offered several advantages. First, the fact that training is conducted
by family group supervisors provides a clear indication of the importance Xerox ascribes to the Leader-
ship Through Quality training. Second, because virtually all employees must teach the program follow-
ing initia! training, the concepts are very likely to be learned and reinforced.

Specific Training Initiatives

Xerox offers a number of training opportunities to its workers. Although the amount of training varies
each year, training costs Xerox an estimated 3 to 4 percent of its annual revenue. Although training
courses are charged to managers’ budgets, these costs are a small percentage of any total budget and do
not seem to provide a barrier to the provision of worker training. Current chargebacks are established to
cover the development, presentation, and administration costs of training incurred by the training
department. Although most of the training is paid for by Xerox, the company has received some funding
from New York's Structurally Unemployed Retraining Program to upgrade the skills of technicians.
Descriptions of some of Xerox’s training programs are provided below.

Leadership Through Quality

The largest training effort undertaken at Xerox was Leadership Through Quality. It is a 28-hour
quality training program to which Xerox estimates it has devoted over 4 million manhours and $125
million over a 54-month period to deliver to its workforce worldwide. All current employees have been
trained. All new employees receive Leadership Through Quality training within 90 days of their employ-
ment at Xerox. The quality training is learned through the cascade process, used in daily activities,
taught to others, and inspected by supervisors to make sure their workers are using the quality tools.
Generally speaking, Leadership Through Quality gives all Xerox employees a specialized language that
allows easy communication among all workers, a background in common techniques that are used
extensively in team environments to solve problems and improve functions; and a common process for
solving problems and improving quality.

Leadership Through Quality involves initiatives such as competitive benchmarking, employee in-
volvement and empowerment, and quality tools and processes such as the Problem Solving Process
(PSP) and the Quality Improvement Process (QIP). The training sequence includes an orientation (2 to 4
hours), problem solving skills and statistical tools (2 days), family group start-up that discusses mission
and outputs (1 day), and quality improvement that teaches interactive skills, the quality improvement

process, statistical tools, cost of quality, and competitive benchmarking (3 days).5 These processes and
tools are discussed below.

* Competitive Benchmarking is “the continuous process of measuring our products, services, and
practices against our toughest competitors or those companies renowned as the leaders.”?6 Competi-
tive benchmarking consists of five phases: planning, analysis, integration, action, and maturity. An
output is selected and then it is compared to the recognized leaders in order to incorporate success-
ful principles and establish performance goals for Xerox.

+ Employee Involvement (EI) was initiated with a joint union/management partnership that resulted
from 1980 contract negotiations. Xerox uses a multitude of teams in problem solving and quality
improvement which have authority to recommend changes to improve their work processes.

+ Problem Solving Process (PSP) consists of six steps that involve the identification and analysis of a
particular problem, as well as the implementation and evaluation of the chosen solution. PSP
incorporates a number of data collection and analysis tools in order to analyze problems and select

the most appropriate solutions. It is used when there is a gap between what is happening and what is
desired.

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service and a school system that has little discretionary money for special projects. Many school systems
in the country are facing cutbacks due to loss of tax revenues. Others are examining new decision-
making structures to change teacher and community participation. The federal government can help
increase the chances for college of economically disadvantaged youth through additional support of
TRIO programs and through dissemination efforts directed to school counselors.

Strengthen Support of 2-Year Institutions and
Transfer Opportunities Between 2- and 4-Year Institutions

Proposal

Examine the Title III program for 2-year institutions, advocating a more equitable mix of funding
between 2- and 4-year institutions. Work with state higher education agencies to improve data collection
on transfer, dissemination of course information within and across institutions, and program review
regarding credit applicability to general education, electives and requirements for the major.

Rationale

Given the disproportionate number of blacks and Hispanics who enter the postsecondary education
system through the 2-year institution and the decreased chances for their completion of a baccalaureate
degree, and given the propensity for veterans and active duty military to participate in programs of 2 to 3
years in length, it seems especially important to pay attention to this extensive system of educational
opportunity. Recommendations from the literature and from those interviewed include ensuring adequate
and available grant aid for students who attend the 2-year institutions, most of whom are part-time
students. Others have recommended lower eligibility requirements and special incentives for those

working towards a transfer to the 4-year institution as student assistance options for the federal
government.

Adequate grant assistance should probably be combined with a plan to phase in loans once the student
has demonstrated a certain level of academic achievement and the institution has reviewed the loan
repayment prospects for that student.

Strengthen Job Training and Education Partnerships
as an Approach to School-to-Work Transition

Proposal

Expand the Job Corps, examine the educational component of the Job Training Partnership Act

(JPA); expand apprenticeship component and examine guaranteed entry into jobs, military, etc., for
completion of components.

Rationale

There are a number of changes anticipated in the workforce that could disadvantage the “newly
unqualified,” including significant growth of occupational! areas requiring a college education. As
industries face an expected decrease in the number of high school graduates, they can look to new
apprenticeship programs to renew their own workforces. In combination with high schools, colleges,
community services, and the military, businesses could establish apprenticeship programs that begin as
soon as youths complete high school and end with a firm job commitment. The two critical components

of the apprenticeship should be a continuation of higher education (part-time attendance) and on-the-job
training.

184

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say, an X percent reduction. Then the X percent of sampled FY 1989 recruits in that service with the
lowest AFQT scores were selected to represent the newly unqualified. These cases were weighted up to
the 5-year reduction totals for each service, and the weighted totals were combined.

To examine the social class backgrounds of the newly unqualified, FY 1989 data from the DoD
Survey of Recruit Socioeconomic Backgrounds are used.' In this survey, samples of new recruits are
asked questions about their parents’ education, occupations, and other socioeconomic attributes. The
procedures used to simuate the newly unqualified from the survey data were the same as those em-
ployed with the sample of 40,000 recruits.

To permit comparison of the newly unqualified with civilians, FY 1989 Current Population Survey
(CPS) data are used. For the demographic profile, the comparison group is a nationwide sample of
noninstitutionalized civilian youth aged 18 to 24. Since the data in the socioeconomic survey concern
the parents of recruits, rather than the recruits themselves, the CPS comparison groups are made up of
the male and female parents who have children between the ages of 14 and 21 living at home.

FY 1989 military and civilian data are used for two reasons. First, FY 1989 can be considered the last
“normal” year of recruiting (the Berlin Wall fell in Novemver 1989) and hence provides a good starting
point. Second, extensive recruit and civilian data are readily available for FY 1989, permitting compar-
ison of the (simulated) newly unqualified with all recruits and with a nationwide sample of civilians in
that year. Estimating the numbers of the newly unqualified and describing their characteristics is neces-
sarily an exercise in the hypothetical. Essentially, we are comparing FY 1991 through FY 1995 projec-
tions developed at two different points in time under vastly different strategic circumstances. Obviously,
manpower plans could change again in the future.

This paper accepts the assumptions implicit in the ?OM projections about labor market conditions
that affect military applications and enlistments. One such assumption is that the cohort of 18- to 21-
year-olds will continue to decline until around 1995, when the decline is expected to bottom out.
Economic recession and unemployment may be turn out to be more serious than assumed in these
projections. If so, there will be a tendency for the supply of applicants to increase, enabling the military
to raise enlistment standards while still meeting accession goals. On the other hand, smaller recruiting
budgets, such as that authorized for FY 1991, will tend to reduce the supply of applicants, creating
pressure for the services to lower their standards in order to meet their goals. Indeed, many newly
unqualified individuals of the type simulated in this paper may not apply at all, because of reduced
recruiting efforts, Nevertheless, these individuals will add to the number of youth seeking training and
jobs outside the military because of the reduced number of accession billets. One could elaborate the
model used in this paper by making different assumptions about the labor market and recruiting efforts,
among other things. However, the paper assumes the conditions prevailing in FY 1989.

In all, the data in the paper illustrate what the newly unqualified might look like if some 316,000
Tecruit positions were cut between now and 1995 and if those unable to euter the military resembled FY
1989 recruits in the lower AFQT ranges. The data should not be regarded as referring to aggregates of
specific individuals and should not be seen as a prediction of future outcomes. Nevertheless, the paper.

should provide a reasonably good profile of those who will not have military training or military jobs as
a result of the drawdown.

Demographic Characteristics of the Newly Unqualified
Age

Those newly unqualified for service, like the FY 1989 recruits, are of course much younger than the
general population (see Table 1). Most are young adults in the 18 to 20 year age range. The mean age of

Il



Appendix
SOV III Variables

Grade at entry and grade completed

Grade at entry is coded from SOV public use variables Q15a ard QISb. Q15a equals 2 through 6 to
identify 8 or less and 9 to 12 years of school completed. Q15a equals 7 to identify some post high school
vocational training and 8 through 13 to identify 13 to 18 years of school. Q15a = 7 was coded as 13
years of school. Q15b indicates the level of certification at entry. When Q13b indicated a Ph.D., years of
schooling at entry was coded as 20. Grade completed on the survey date was coded similarly from Q15¢
and Q15d, It should be noted that the results were insensitive to the exclusion of veterans with voca-
tional training.

Miscellaneous variables

Most variables in the extract were coded directly from SOV-III questionnaire responses. As noted in
the text, the sample was selected on the basis of VA period of service recodes (PSER_02, PSER_07 and
PSER_08). Vietnam and early AVF veterans were identified in the extract on the basis of questionnaire
responses (Q4c8 and Q4c9). Program use variables were coded from Q39e. A respondent was coded as
having used VA education programs if he or she used the GI Bill (Q39e5 = 1), the VEAP (Q39e6 = 1),
or some other VA education program (Q39e7 = 1 or Q39e8 = 1).

212

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U.S. Army, NASA Space Program: Huntsville, Alabama

In 1949, the Redstone Arsensal in Huntsville, Alabama, was re-established after having been closed
after World War II. Soon afterward, the Army moved 1,000 missile engineers to the area, and in 1960
the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center was established with a mission to put a man on the moon.
Between 1950 and 1965, Huntsville’s population increased eight-fold, from 16,000 to 130,000. A full 75
percent of the local jobs were defense- or space-related.

The Huntsvilie boom was to come to an end: Simultaneously with the defense drawdown, NASA's
space budget was cut 50 percent. The impact on Huntsville’s economy was devastating. For example,
from the mid-1960s to the early 1970s, 11,000 workers were laid off from NASA jobs alone—2,000
federal employees and 9,000 contractors.

As was the case in Wichita, Huntsville’s recovery took place with federal, state, and local assistance
which emphasized economic development actions. In order to absorb workers of every skill level,
Huntsville received federal funding for three significant initiatives which aided in longer-term recovery:
the University of Alabama in Huntsville was established, a research district and the Cummings Research
Park were created, and initial development of the Huntsville-Madison County Airport began. These
economic diversification initiatives attracted branch facilities of national companies to the area, luring
one to three major new facilities of 300 to 400 employees each year since the late 1960s.”° The city’s
new growth gave a boost to workers, who were now able to find employment in some of these newly
established firms. Also, because of the city’s long-term view during the early sixties, a fairly substantial
infrastructure had been established in the trade and service sector, which acted as a slight cushion to
defense cutbacks, Federal representatives worked with the local industrial development association and
city, county, and Chamber of Commerce officials and utility boards to facilitate the change.”

Raytheon (Anti-Ballistic Missile Radar Program):
Taunton, Massachusetts.

A city of 45,000, Taunton owed its name to the silverplate it produced. While still maintaining its
silver industry, the city has at times also manufactured locomotives, stoves, and bricks. It was therefore
considered to be more diversified than most New England towns during the 1970s. However, in early
1970, Raytheon Corporation—one of the area's larger employers—was told by the DoD to terminate its
missile site radar program in compliance with the Strategic Arms Limitation Talks (SALT ) between the
United States and the Soviet Union. The facility, in a town adjacent to Taunton, was so specialized that
it could not handle other manufacturing processes from other Raytheon facilities and was deemed to be

non-convertible. When the closing of the plant was announced, it employed 1,400 workers. About 600
of the workers lived in the immediate area.*!

Although the plant’s location was outside of Taunton, the greatest impact of the closing was on the
city proper. In order to provide some degree of economic order after the shutdown, a task force was
established out of the Taunton Industrial D« velopment Commission to address reemployment and reuse
of the plant. The DoD’s Office of Economic Adjustment and Congressional leadeis assisted the task
force in its efforts.

First and foremost, Raytheon established a service, through the state employment office, to help
workers desiring reemployment assistance. By the end of 1973, this program, by making contacts
locally, state-wide, and nationally, found ernployment for 705 of 755 workers asking for assistance.
Early in 1973, the area's manpower planning board, the Committee on Effective Placement in the
Commercial Scctor, instituted a pilot program for unemployed workers (not only at Raytheon) to help
write and distribute resumes to potential new employers.

143 1

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Firm-Based Education and Training of Workers:
A Case Study of the Xerox Corporation

Burt S. Barnow and Amy B. Chasanov

Introduction

This report is based on a case study of the education and training provided to Xerox workers. The
objective of the study is to assist in the development of policies to help firms keep their employees
competitive. Xerox was selected for the case study because it is widely known for its commitment to
training. The report consists of two major sections. First, a literature review discusses the necessity for
training and retraining, the level of existing firm-sponsored training, the reasons why current training
levels may not be sufficient, and exemplary approaches and practices in retraining. Second, a description
of the training conducted at Xerox is presented; it is based upon interviews with individuals involved in
the establishment and delivery of Xerox’s training programs. The Xerox case study includes company
background, the organization of the training system, and descriptions of major training programs.

Literature Review

This first section highlights (1) training as a solution to often identified problems in the U.S.
economy, (2) the amount of existing firm-sponsored training in the United States, (3) the reasons why
current levels of firm-sponsored training may be inadequate, and (4) exemplary approaches in employee
training. Training, in this discussion, can cover a wide range of educational and training techniques.
Skills denoted as general and basic education (e.g., reading, writing, mathematics) are sometimes
necessary, even for experienced workers, before nore specialized training can take place. Other training
includes (1) general business training designed to give workers more responsibility—decision making,
communication skills, teamwork, problem-solving, and social skills—and (2) skills training on newer
technological methods—statistical process control, computer use, and computer-aided design and
computer-aided manufacturing (CAD/CAM). When new technological equipment, new methods of work
organization, or changes in job tasks and responsibilities are part of a firm’s strategic plan, the existing
workforce often requires training to become adept at the new equipment, to adopt new roles and respon-
sibilities, or to acquire new skills necessary to fulfill a changing job.

The Problem

A number of recent studies have emphasized problems in the U.S. economy, many of which could be
at least partially solved by increased training of the workforce.' Increased international competition,
declining reat wages, polarization of the income distribution by educational attainment, and the introduc-
tion of new technology are often cited as reasons for increasing training.? A recent Office of Technology

Note: Burt S. Bamow is vice president of LEWIN/ICF. Amy Chasanov is senior associate with LEWIN/ICF.

15k



taken to improve Xerox’s competitive position. Between 1979 and the present, significant steps have
been taken, which include:”2

* Reorganized copier development and production (new management was brought in at the top, and
production, development, and product planning were much more closely integrated);

* Increased emphasis on competitive benchmarking;

* Great increase in employee involvement in all operations;

* Use of statistical process contre! in the factory and with suppliers,
* Much earlier supplier involvement in product design phase;

+ Focus on satisfying the customer’s requirements;

¢ Reduction in the total number of suppliers and in inventory levels;

* Increased emphasis on having a well defined and improved product delivery proces: for the devel-
opment of new products; and

* Introduction in 1984 of a company-wide quality control (CWQC) movement Leadership Through
Quality.

Starting in 1984, a metamorphosis took place in Xerox’s corporate philosophy. The firm’s top priority
became quality, which they define as meeting the internal and external customers’ requirements. Along
with this new emphasis on quality, human resource initiatives were established to increase employee
effectiveness and productivity, primarily through the use of training, employee involvement, and em-
powerment. When asked how Xerox could afford to provide such comprehensive investments in human
resources at a time when its financial position was so poor, one Xerox executive stated that these invest-
ments were the only alternative Xerox had if it wanted to stay in the market place.”? Xerox’s efforts have
been rewarded not only by increases in productivity, decreases in costs, and increases in product quality,
but also through their receipt of the 1989 Malcolm Baldrige National Quality Award from the Depart-
ment of Commerce. The extent of Xerox’s commitment to training and continuous improvement is
discussed in the following sections.

Provision of Training at Xerox

Introduction

This section discusses training provided at Xerox, with an emphasis on training provided to manage-
tial and technical employees. Information on Xerox’s training program was obtained from discussions
with seven Xerox trainin’, professionals in Webster and Rochester, New York. In addition, we attended a
presciitation on the company’s Leadership Through Quality process. We emphasize training provided to
managerial and technical employees rather than manufacturing employees because manufacturing
employees constitute a relatively small portion of Xerox’s workforce—only about 7,000 out of Xerox’s
50,000 U.S. workers. Originally, we planned to focus the study on retraining of workers whose jobs had
become obsolete. Although Xerox does conduct some training of this nature, most of the training is
aimed at broadening workers’ skills so that they can grow and adapt to changing job requirements.
Consequently, we discuss the broad mix of training provided to Xerox employees rather than focus on
specific retraining programs.

The training considered in our case study falls in three broad categories:

* Leadership Through Quality. This is Xerox training provided to all employees to teach them the
processes and tools for quality improvement to achieve the highest quality in all its endeavors.

* Technical Education. Xerox’s technical education courses cover a broad range of subjects including
computer science, engineering, manufacturing, and general business. Technical education courses

157

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reflects where involuntary separations are targeted for the two scenarios. However, there is an interesting
longer-term effect. For the junior separation scenario, the losses in the longer term do not change from
1980 levels, whereas they increase by 14 percent for the senior separation scenario. This difference
simply reflects the fact that a junior drawdown today means fewer senior separations 10 to 15 years from
now. The junior drawdown reduced the size of the cohorts entering in 1990-95, and as these smaller
cohorts reach seniority in 10 years, they will suffer fewer losses in the 2000-10 period. On the other

hand, senicr separations today mean larger cohorts in 1990-95, and these larger cohorts will have larger
losses throughout their lifetime.

Effects of Reducing Reserve Forces

The Selected Reserves currently number 1.17 million as compared to 2.0 million for the active forces.
The Selected Reserves’ job is a part-time job requiring 12 weekends during the year and two weeks of
full-time training annually. Approximately 90 percent of reservists are moonlighters—holding both the
reserve job and a full-time regular job (Grissmer et al. 1989). While initial drawdown plans called for
few or no reductions in reserve forces, current DoD plans call for roughly equivalent percentage reduc-
tions in active and reserve forces, :

Since reservists are not full-time, these reductions will not have employment effects on the full-time
labor force. However, there would be additional training and education effects from a reserve drawdown.

The training effect arises because the reserve forces provide youths with training in military and
occupational skills similar to the active force. This full-time training is provided by the active force and
consists of exactly the same training received by active enlistees. The number of youths accessed into
the enlisted force was 94,000 in FY 1990. This is about one-third the level of active force accessions. If
the reserve forces were reduced by 25 percent, the accession level would in the longer term probably

also drop by 25 percent, with the result that approximately 25,000 fewer youths would be trained
annually.

However, there is the possibility that a much greater percentage decline would occur in the non-prior
service group. One policy option in a smaller force would be to link active and reserve service. Indivi-
duals enlisting for active duty would also incur a Reserve obligation. This would greatly expand the pool
of prior service accessions and lower the requirement for non-prior service personnel. If this occurred,
the decline in youth trained annually could increase to 50,000 to 75,000.

Youths in the Reserves probably receive training more likely to be transferable to civilian skills than
those on active duty, since the reserve forces are weighted less toward combat capability and more.
toward military support capability. However, since reserve forces are only part-time, they only slowly

receive on-the-job training and their proficiency level probably lags behind those of enlistees in the
active force.

The selected reserve forces also earn educational benefits. Educational benefits are provided to all
reservists through the GI Bill program, and several states also offer supplementary benefits for those in
the National Guard. The federal benefits provide $5,600 annually for support and tuition. Lower acces-
sion levels would mean fewer individuals qualifying for these educational benefits.



This paper attempts to describe the demographic and aptitude characteristics of the newly unqualified.
Who are they likely to be? How many men and women? low many whites, blacks, and members of
other racial minorities? What skills and talents, or skill and talent deficits, will they bring to the civilian
training and labor markets? What regions of the country will be most affected? These and similar
questions will be addressed in the sections that follow. First, however, it is useful to examine some of
the details of the military cutback and to explain how one can make informed guesses about the charac-
teristics of people who, as a result of the drawdown, will not enter the military either because they apply
and are rejected or because they do not apply in the first place.

The Bush administration has proposed to reduce active duty military manpower from about 2 million
to 1.5 million active duty members ovei he next 5 years. Though plans for precise year-vy-year reduc-
tions are not yet complete, it is expected that end strength will be cut by approximately 100,000 per year
over the period FY 1991 through FY 1995. (Because of the Persian Gulf crisis, only 80,000 billets are
now scheduled to be cut in FY 1991. It is assumed that the difference will be made up in subsequent
years, although the future consequences of the Middle East deployment for military manpower are not
entirely predictable.) It is likely that officers will be reduced roughly in proportion to their numbers,
approximately 13 percent of the total or around 65,000 billets. This means that some 435,000 slots will
be taken out of the enlisted force, if current plans are carried out.

Most of the reductions in the enlisted force will come fro accessions (new recruits), although the
exact mix of cuts from accessions and from the experienced force has yet to be determined. Reducing the
number of new recruits too heavily would distort the structure of the active forces, creating a gap in the
age/grade distribution that would move across the years. According to the estimates ia this paper, a
reduction of approximately 316,000 accessions, properly apportioned among the services over the 5-year
period, would enable them to meet their lower end-strength goals without unduly distorting the age/
grade structure of the force. Thus, accessions would account for about 73 percent of enlisted reductions.

The other 27 percent, or about 119,000, would come from cuts in the experienced force rather than
from new recruits, Most of these would result from reenlistments denied to personnel who have com-
pleted their first term of service. A small number would come from those with more than 20 years of

service who are eligible for retirement. And a small number would come from those in the experienced
career force with between 6 and 20 years service.

To estimate the number of recruit reductions by service and year through FY 1995, we compare
military manpower projections developed before the reduced threat from the Warsaw Pact was taken into
account (the “old” projections) with current projections. The oid projections are set forth in the services’
1990 Program Objective Memoranda (POMs). The new projections are based on a computer model
developed for the Department of Defense by the Rand Corporation. The difference between the old

and new projections for the 5-year period constitutes an estimate of each service’s reduction in new
recruits.

FY 1989 recruits who scored in the lower ranges of the Armed Forces Qualifying Test (AFQT) were
selected to simulate the newly unqualified. Military accession procedures are designed to screen out the
least qualified applicants at any given point in time. The Army and the Air Force have computerized
selection procedures that constantly assess the qualifications of applicants, making it possible to select
the most promising for enlistment. The Navy and Marines use similar selection procedures, aithough
they are not computerized. The AFQT, which measures verbal and math skills, is key to this process.
While the education level of the applicants is also important, almost all new recruits are high school
graduates. AFQT and related test scores provide a more flexible and discriminating means of selecting
on the basis of qualification as supply and demand shift over time.

In order to simulate a demographic profile of the newly unqualified, a random sample of 40,000

Tecruits (10,000 from each service) was selected from the Defense Manpower Data Center’s FY 1989
accession files. A given service’s percentage cut in new recruits over th next 5 years was determined—

6 16



For the purposes of this paper, we have assumed a post-Iraq scenario which reduces the Armed Forces
by 25 percent from 1980s levels (see Table 2). The Army declines by 33 percent and the Air Force by 24
percent, while the Navy and Marine Corps decline by 8 and 10 percent, respectively. We believe that
these estimates represent a mid-range among the various estimates that are made.

Table 2.—Enlisted force reduction scenario (annual average end-strength in thousands)

% Change
1980-89 1992-96 2000-10 (1980-89 to 2009-10)
Army 668 495 450 33
Air Fore 492 451 432 8
Navy 478 364 350 24
Marine Corps 176 158 143 10
All Services 1813 1469 1375 25

Strategies for the Drawdown

The long-term effects of the drawdown on military employment, training, and eligibility for educa-
tional benefits will not likely be exactly proportional to the size of the reduction in force size. That is, a
25 percent reduction in force size may not bring proportional changes in the number trained, the number
employed, and the number eligible for educational benefits. Differences will likely emerge to somewhat
change this simple proportionality rule. For instance, a smaller force will bring in higher quality recruits
with lower attrition rates which will require accession levels lower than determined by simple propor-

tional rules. These higher quality recruits might also utilize educational benefits more often once they
leave the service.

The near-term effects are also likely to be quite different than those determined by simple propor-
tionality rules. The near-term effects will be determined primarily by the strategy chosen to achieve the
drawdown. One strategy would be to simply protect those in today’s force from involuntary separations
and achieve the smaller force size through reduced hiring. This strategy is often called “reduction
through natural attrition,” since no present employees are involuntarily terminated. This would reduce
accessions below even the future steady-state requirements of the smaller force size and result in lower
numbers of youth trained and employed by the military during the transition. Losses would also decline
sharply during the transition because of the fewer number of attrition-prone younger soldiers.

At the other extreme, the bulk of the force reduction could be achieved through increased separations
of current service personnel. Under this strategy, accession levels would be reduced only to a level
required for the future smaller force size, and separations would be increased to the level required to
achieve the reduction. The separations can be taken at different experience levels within the force. We
will refer to first-term, mid-level and career separations. First-term separation would be directed at those
in the first 4 years of service, while mid-level separations would involve those with 5 to 10 years of
service. Senior separation would involve those with over 10 years of service.

The choice of strategy is more difficult and risky for the military services because of their hiring
policies, The military services rarely hire laterally into their work force. They bring all new hires in at
the bottom and achieve their senior career force only through aging and promotion. Thus, the level of
imary determinant of the size of the career force 15 years later. Accessions levels which
are too low can result in future shortages of senior personnel, and since no lateral hiring can occur, these
shortages cannot be easily fixed. So, straying from the “steady-state” accession levels required to
achieve the desired future seniority is unwise.

40

44



Notes

\.R.E. Boyatzis, The Competent Manager (New York: John Wiley & Sons, 1982).
2. Ibid.
3 bid.
“Ibid.

5, J. Kagen & E, Haveman, Psychology: An Introduction, 2nd ed, (New York: Harcourt Brace Jovanovich, 1972).



Appendix

i

Table A-1.—Percentof parents who are married by gender of parents

F
wee

Parents of newly unqualified Parents of FY 1989 recruits | CPS parents
Males 87 89 94
Females 68 73 79
Table A-2.—Percent of parents in “owned” residences by gender of parents
Parents of newly unqualified Parents of FY 1989 recruits | CPS parents
Males 73 79 84
Females 64 72 75
Table A-3.—Percent of male parents at each education level
Education Fathers of newly unqualified Fathers of FY 1989 recruits | CPS fathers
Less than HS grad. 31 23 19
HS grad. 37 35 36
Some college 20 23 18
(no 4-year degree)
College grad. 12 19 26
Total 100 100 100
Table A-4.—Percent of parents unemployed by gender of parents
Parents of newly unqualified Parents of FY 1989 recruits | CPS parents
Males 26 2.0 2.3
Females 8.5 6.4 3.9
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Table 13.—Percentage of newly unqualified by race within region (with numbers projected for
FY 1991 through FY 1995)

Race Northeast North Central South West
White 58 62 40 60
(22,828) (46,824) (56,542) (31,564)
Black 33 35 57 16
(13,034) (26,442) (80,432) (8,514)
Other 9 3 3 24
(3,581) (2,622) (4,260) (12,891)
Total 100 100 100 100
(39,442) (75,888) (141,233) (52,969)

Combining blacks, members of other racial minorities, and Hispanics, we find that almost two-thirds
(64 percent) of the newly unqualified in the South—a total of around 91,000 individuals—are of racial-
ethnic minority background. The corresponding figures are 44 percent in the Northeast, 39 percent in the
North Central region, and 48 percent in the West.

The concentration of minority group members in the South does not imply that the AFQT scores of
the unqualified in the South are substantially different from the scores of those in other regions. In fact,
they are rather similar (see Table 14)

Table 14.—AFQT distribution of newly unqualified within region (percent)

Category Northeast North Central South West
mA 6 5 4 5
TB 71 70 72 73
IV 23 25 24 23
Total 100 100 100 100

As noted earlier, the association between race and AFQT scores among the unqualified is relatively
weak; hence it is not surprising that there is little regional variation in the distribution of AFQT scores,
even though there is substantial regional variation by race. Nor are there regional differences in educa-
tion; approximately 96 percent of the unqualified in all regions are high school graduates. There are

some interesting differences in the occupation-related composite scores of the newly unqualified in each
region, however, as Table 15 shows.*

Table 15.—Aptitude composites: Mean percentile scores of the newly unqualified and 1980
civilians aged 18 to 23 by region of newly unqualified

Newly unqualified
Composite Northeast NorthCentral South West Civilians 18 to 23
Mechanical 48 45 43 49 39
Administrative 39 33 43 44 47
General 34 30 35 37 50
Electronics 36 35 38 37 47
14

18



skills. Many of these are teenagers or young adults who have dropped out of high school and who are
already on the margins of American society.

The second conference panel, “Educational Resources Available to Individuals Making a Transition
from the Military to the Civilian Sector,” projected much brighter prospects for the newly released who
take with them the training and educational benefits they received while they were in the military.
Clinton Lee Anderson’s paper “Educational Resources Available for Transition of Service Members”
presents the vast array of services available to men and women who leave the militarv. Ranging from
“pre-separation counseling services” to “education incentive programs” administered by the Department
of Veterans Affairs, the benefits established for military leavers are vast in number. Although these
educational resources are being used by servicemembers and veterans, limitations and difficulties exist.
This paper makes some recommendations to improve the existing situation.

Scott Whitener’s paper, “The Use of NOCTI Examinations to Assist Military Personnel Moving into
the Civilian Workforce,” is very different from the macro-analysis of educational resources available to
military leavers. He describes a battery of tests that are available to military personnel in their transition’
to civilian sector occupations. The National Occupational Competency Testing Institute (NOCTI),
which develops and administers these tests, appears to be a viable route for diagnosing the competencies
of military personnel and matching them with their civilian counterparts. Also discussed in this paper is
the training that the military provides to prepare enlisted personnel for occupational specialties, Corre-
sponding educational competencies in civilian programs and the types of educational institutions which
provide them are examined. In the third paper for this panel, “Competency Requirements of Managerial
Jobs in the Public and Private Sector,” Joyce Shields and Joanne Adams discuss the similarities and
differences of job competencies in both sec. ors and present an approach for training and developing
competencies, to assist in the transition of civilian public sector employees to the private sector.

The third set of papers differed slightly from the others. They focus on the role of education and
training in defense-related and non-defense-related companies. In “Lessons from the Past: Mitigating the
Effects of Military Cutbacks on Defense Workers,” Lois Lembo and Judith Philipson discuss how
industry initiatives to retrain and re-educate workers laid off from defense companies have made signifi-
cant contributions to local and state economies through early notification and job placement counseling.
According to this paper, one of the most important long-term initiatives is planning for and establishing
an economic infrastructure in which civil-military integration and the production of “dual-use” products
are dominant—providing for effective employment transition and easier market conversion as economic
and defense priorities change. Burt Barnow and Amy Chasanov’s paper, entitled “Firm-Based Educa-
tion and Training of Workers: A Case Study of the Xerox Corporation,” provides an excellent discus-
sion of how a company uses its education and training strategically and comprehensively and thus is
able to maintain its various programs regardless of business cycle conditions.

The fourth panel was “Effects of Downsizing on Postsecondary Institutions and on the U.S.
Workforce.” “The Impact of Military Drawdowns on Student Assistance Programs,” prepared by
Meredith Ludwig and Holly Hexter, focuses on the participation and financial support of military
personnel in postsecondary institutions. It outlines policy proposals for exparding or realigning current
assistance programs to meet the education and training needs of groups within the military or with the
propensity to enlist. They argue to strengthen the nexus between the military and higher education
communities. Given the fact that newly released service members may opt to combine school with work
or go to school full time, veterans benefits may be an appropriate vehicle to achieve these goals. The
services clearly see veterans benefits as an essential recruitment tool, and the high rate of sign-up
indicates that service members generally expect to use those benefits. The last paper, “The Effects of
Veterans Benefits on Veterans’ Education and Earnings,” written by Joshua Angrist, reports that a
majority of Armed Forces veterans make use of the subsidized training and educational benefits pro-
vided by the Department of Veterans Affairs. The effect of these benefits on educational attainment and
civilian earnings seems to be measurable. It increases schooling by 1.4 years and produces a grade



that time period. The driving factor was the pent up demand in the civil sector—caused by high employ-
ment combined with rationing and lack of civilian goods during the war. One very significant influence
was the fact that, by the end of the war, severe labor shortages had begun to appear throughout the
economy. This “capped” economic expansion at lower levels than it might otherwise have achieved,
created continuing demand for new workers, and pulled into manufacturing jobs large numbers of
temporary workers (e.g., housewives, older workers, students, and aliens) who could be easily and
relatively painlessly displaced when war contracts ended or soldiers returned to reclaim the jobs.

The nation also ended the war financially, emotionally, and practicaliy prepared for a “spending
spree.” While employment had increased significantly and the average work weck had been extended
from 38 to 45 hours,? it had become much more difficult throughout the war for newly prosperous
workers to find anything to spend their money on. Beginning in March 1941, with a restriction on
nonessential uses of aluminum, the federal government had systematically suppressed “nonessential”
economic activities, including:

* Nonessential building and construction was restricted in September 1941.

+ Steel plants were put under complete allocations (to supply only essential activities) in November
1941.

+ Tire rationing was instituted in January 1942, the same month that production of cars and light
trucks was prohibited.

* Production of refrigerators was stopped in February 1942.
* Nationwide food rationing began in April 1943.!°
Many other routinely available consumer goods could simply not be bought at any price during the

war. The result of high employment, high wages, and lack of available consumer goods was predictable.
Perrett notes the following economic conditions at the close of World War II:

America had become a middle-class country . . . . Average income was almost $3,000 a year,
more than twice what it had been in 1939. The gross national product had gone from $90
billion then to $213 billion now. Most of the increase went into wages and salaries. Given a
chance to spend it, people did. Expenditures on personal consumption almost doubled and
would have gone higher but for rationing . . . . Nearly 30 percent of their earnings since Pearl
Harbor had been saved up. Personal savings in cash, bonds, bank accounts and the like had
been $15 billion in 1940; in 1945 they were more than three times as much. And if anyone
necded a loan, the banks had so much money to lend and so little demand for it that they
asked for just 2.5 percent in return.'!

Another factor easing the transition to a post-war economy was the fact that the United States had had
virtually no “defense industry” as such prior to World War II. Like the soldiers, the production base in
World War II was “drafted,” more or less reluctantly, into armaments production.’? Industry had been
under some degree of compulsion to abandon commercial production in favor of military production
since early 1940, and by the time of the attack on Pearl Harbor, “nonessential” production had already
been substantially curtailed. For industry as well as military personnel, the end of the war meant a
welcome return to “normal” ways of life and prewar commercial patterns.

Even with these favorable economic factors, economic prosperity after the demoLilization from World
War II was by no means assured. The World War II planners determined that the swift reconversion of
industry would be an essential clement of recovery. Extensive advance planning for reconversion of

facilities was undertaken carly on, with the hope that a major dislocation at the termination of the war
could be avoided.

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provided with information on various specific measures of performance. Marketing managers can assess
market share; manufacturing managers can assess productivity as a function of costs and waste, etc. On
the other hand, the nature of the work and the measures of performance used i: the public sector do not
allow for clear feedback to managers about performance. Parallel differences in these competencies were
also found between levels in the organization, with the higher levels demonstrating less efficiency
orientation than the lower levels. Again, these differences can be explained by the decreasing access to
measures of individual performance at the upper levels and the increasing reliance on long-term
organizational effectiveness.

The same difference in demonstrated levels of proactivity can be explained in the same manner: it is
very likely that private sector managers have more opportunities to solve problems and take initiative
which leads to change than do managers in the public sector.

Recognizing patterns is a way of thinking in which one identifies and recognizes patterns from an
assortment of information, by bringing a concept to the situation and interpreting events through that
concept. This capacity permits managers to figure things out through deductive and analytic processes.
Differences in this skill level may be explained by the unintended consequences of policies and proce-
dures which routinize the thought and performance processes required in the public sector.

Regarding concern for impacting others, it is speculated that managers in the private sector have more
access to and flexibility in selecting and using symbols of power than do public sector managers. Public
sector managers, therefore, would be less skilled at identifying ways to symbolically assert their status.

In summary, aspects of the private sector such as the establishment of clear goals and standards of
excellence and performance provide the arena for goal setting, assessing return on investment, taking
personal responsibility for the consequences of actions, and obtaining identifiable results from problem-

solving activities. This in turn is reflected in the higher competency skill levels demonstrated by private
sector managers.

Leadership Cluster

The second cluster is called the Leadership cluster. These competencies are associated with the
requirements of the manager to activate the human resources of the organization by stimulating their
interest and involvement in the organization: by inspiring them. The manager is also often required to
represent the organization to outside audiences such as community groups, professional societies, or
financial institutions. To accomplish these duties successfully, the manager must confidently present
ideas, beliefs, or goals that others find interesting or stimulating. This requires insight and the concep-
tual ability to identify market needs or articulate a statement of the strategic direction of the organiza-

tion. Competencies which contribute to this cluster are self-confidence, oral presentation skills, logical
thinking, and conceptualization.

Managers in the private sector demonstrated greater skill in two of the feur competencies in the
Leadership cluster, conceptualization and oral presentation skills. Again, the job demands regarding the
variety of types and sources of information to which managers in the private sector are exposed and
required to process can explain the higher conceptualization demonstrated by those managers, Also, the
greater structure placed on the information provided to public sector managers in the forms of regula-
tions and detailed policies and procedures may constrain the demonstration of this intellectual compe-
tency in the public sector. In fact, this is one of the few competencies included in the managerial profile
that is not demonstrated in greater quantities by superior than by average mangers in the public sector.
Similarly, lower level managers demonstrate less of this competency. Again, the complexity and

diversity of the information required for processing in these management functions may account for
these findings,



Table 14.—U. S. Army transition counscling procedures for Army Continuing Education System

C-1. Obtain a monthly loss roster (Reenlistment Eligibility Roster) from the installation Total
Army Career Counselor (TACC) or PSC. (Roster lists soldiers scheduled to complete active
duty within 270 days.)

C-2. Using the loss roster as the source document, notify the battalion-level (or separate
company) commander of soldiers requiring mandatory Veteran’s Educational Assistance
Benefits Counseling.

C-3. Conduct Veteran’s Educational Benefits counseling with soldier (and spouse, if appli-
cable), no later than 150 days prior to the soldier’s transition date. Schedule a follow-up
counseling session for soldiers who plan to pursue full-time or part-time education and need
further assistance.

C-4. Conduct follow-up counseling. Schedule testing appropriate to the soldier’s education/
career plans ...

C-S. Assist soldier in identification of educaticnal institutions consistent with the soldier’s
abilities, interests, and career plans.

C-6. Assemble information on identified educational institutions.

C-7. Assist soldier in requesting official transcripts, test scores, and other education/training
documentation.

C-8. Assist soldier in obtaining and cempleting educational institution admissions-related
forms.

C-9. Obtain an updated copy of the soldier’s SOCAD/BDFS agreement, if applicable.

C-10. Assist soldier in assembly of admissions packet for each educational institution which

requires formal application. The packet includes an ESO (base education services officer)
letter of introduction.

C-11. OCONUS (Outside Continental U.S.) only: Assemble “Green to Gold” packet for each
soldier eligible for, and interested in Army ROTC enrollment . . .

C-12. Forward original packet(s) to educational institution(s) admissions offices/registrars.

C-13. OCONUS only: Forward original “Green to Gold” packet to Professor of Military
Science (PMS) of the soldier’s denial or packet shortcoming.

C-14. Assist in correction of the packet and resubmission, or counsel soldier on educational
alternatives, if the soldier is notified by an educational institution of admission denial or
packet shu -tcoming.

C-15. During installation clearance processing, verify completion of mandatory Veterans’
Educational Assistance Benefits Counseling (using DA Form 669).

C-16. Prior to final AEC (Army Education Center) clearance, provide transitioning soldier
with AARTS transition transcript and other personal transcripts and documents from DA

Form 669 (if materials not previously provided to soldier). DA Form 669 will be hand carried
by soldier to the transition point activity.

Source: Army Regulation 621-5 1989, 12

The Department of Labor Transition Assistance Program (TAP) ir ‘ncluded under ACAP’s new
initiatives. TAP consists of a series of 3-day seminars taught by Department of Labor personnel to
separating personnel. These seminars focus on personal appraisal, career decisions, job applications, and
dressing for success. Similar to job fairs, TAP seminars can point servicemembers toward specific job
opportunities or into areas for further exploration. Specific jobs may well require some postsecondary

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percent (or 177,000), while almost 3 percent (or 49,000) of young black men came into the military that
fiscal year.®

Blacks are not the only minority group in the military, but they are by far the largest, accounting for
about three-quarters of all minority accessions. Also, because detailed tracking of other groups is harder
to come by, blacks are the most analyzed of the racial-ethnic minorities. Hispanics—Mexicans, Puerto
Ricans, Cubans, Latin Americans, and so on—are a growing ethnic minority in this country. Although
as a group their representation in the armed forces also seems to be growing, it had not as of 1989
reached the 11 percent Hispanics constitute of the 18- to 24-year-old youth population. For example,
Table 3 shows the Hispanic percentage of first-time enlisted accessions for the past 4 years. Overall,
among the 1989 accessions, Hispanics comprised 6 percent. However, this degree of “underrepresen-
tation” of Hispanics may be overestimated since general population figures try to account for illegal
aliens, who are not eligible to enlist in the military.

Table 3.—Hispanics* as a percentage of total first-time accessions by service and total military,
Fiscal Years 1986-89

Service
. Fiscal Marine Air Total
year Army Navy Corps Force DoD
1986 4 6 5 2 4
1987 4 7 6 3 3
1988 5 7 7 3 5
1989 6 8 7 3 6

Source: Adapted from U.S. Department of Defense, Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense (Force Management and
Personnel), Population Representation in the Military Services (Washington, DC: 1990, 1989, 1988, 1987, 1986).

*Hispanics do not include Blacks.

Another intezesting enlistment phenomenon among minorities is that, compared to male recruits,
female minority accessions are even higher in proportion to the general population than are male minor-
ity accessions, For example, while 20 percent of FY 1989 male recruits were black, 30 percent of FY
1989 female recruits were black. The services are recruiting more than 5 percent of the over 11 million
black women aged 18 through 24 in contrast to less than .25 percent of the almost 25 million white
women,’ Who knows how big the draw would be if women were not restricted by law and service
policy.

Not only are blacks more likely than whites to enter service but, due to contributing factors such as
higher levels of education" and reenlistment rates among blacks in the military, they comprise an even
higher proportion of the total enlisted force. In 1973, only 14 percent of all active duty enlisted person-
nel were black, while today over 20} ercent can be so categorized. Table 4 shows the latest available
distribution of active duty enlisted personnel by race-ethnicity for each service. The most staggering
figure (but consistent over the past decade) in this table is the almost one-third of Army enlisted person-
nel who are black." Although thre is no breakdown in the table, black women are more likely to reenlist
and thus, compared to accession levels, they comprise a higher proportion of the active duty enlisted
force, For example, as of September 30, 1989, blacks comprised 23 percent of all enlisted personnel.

Among male and female enlistees respectively, the percentages of corresponding blacks were 22 and
34 percent.

24

28



make contact with workers and communities as soon as layoffs are announced. Such a rapid response,
carried out at the local level, is critical to the effectiveness of employment-related programs. In permit-
ting a rapid response to be accomplished, an important development is the passage of the Worker
Adjustment and Retraining Notification Act, which requires that employers provide 60 days notice to
workers when a defense cutback results in a plant closing, mass layoff, or substantial reduction in hours.
The recently passed Defense Authorization and Appropriations Bills also contain economic adjustment
provisions that are designed to reduce the impact of declining defense spending on communities and
workers.

However, the most promising development may be industry’s increased concer about the fate of
their workers affected by layoffs, and the effectiveness of the programs that have been put in place to
promote their reemployment. These programs acknowledge both industry’s obligation to the community
and the value of their investment in a workforce—which may well be called upon again when economic
conditions change. The pervasiveness of private worker assistance programs was shown by a recent
survey of 104 large U.S. firms. The survey found that 90 percent provided outplacement services to laid-
off workers; two-thirds offered early retirement, alternative company employment, or extended health
benefits; and one-third provided retraining opportunities.>* These programs have preven to be highly
effective. As perhaps a best-case example, 85 percent of 2,000 laid-off GTE workers were able to find
new employment one month prior to the time of plant closing. The key to this accomplishment was a
vigorous in-house outplacement program, which garnered the participation of all but 35 of the displaced
workers.*” In another notable industry program, General Dynamics operates a $2-million-a-year transi-
tion center that was specifically established to assist hourly workers in reemployment efforts. In addition
to offering outplacement services to help workers train for new jobs, industries that hire these workers
could gain considerable benefits by providing in-house reeducation and training programs to lure new
workers into their firms. For instance, commercial companies could snonsor on-the-job training and
courses to retrain skilled and unskilled workers for available jobs in the company. This would provide
workers with incentives to learn commercially oriented work and allow companies, through a moderate
amount of investment, the opportunity to obtain the most successful and brightest candidates from the
defense sector. These programs could potentially be promoted through federal incentives programs
designed to facilitate the reemployment of defense workers.

Summary

Comparing the anticipated shakeout with historical experiences is difficult at best. The past experi-
ences were the outcome of economic conditions and industrial realities that were unique to the time. The
structure of the defense industrial base, the evolution of manufacturing, and the declining competitive-
ness of U.S. industry have created a new environment for workers, defense firms, and the communities
that rely on them. Comparison is also made difficult by the fact that the dimensions of the future cutback
are not known with any certainty. The severity of the problems that it may cause will depend on its
magnitude, speed, and the way in which the spending cuts are distributed. For example, both Texas and
Maryland are among the top 10 states in defense production. However, Maryland has one of the lowest
unemployment rates in the country (3.3 percent) and would be expected to absorb cutbacks relatively
well, especially since Maryland’s highly skilled workforce will readily transition into careers in other
high-tech areas. In contrast, Texas already has an unemployment rate of over 6 percent, and could be
expected to be hard-hit by cuts affecting Texas-based firms.** All of these factors make comparisons
between past experiences and today and broad generalizations of lessons learned difficult.

However, a number of patterns reflected in the experiences of the past provide useful insights and
encouragement for today. They show the importance of government and industry efforts toward short-
term relief and longer-term recovery. There are many reasons to believe that the nation has made a
substantial commitment to both of these areas, Within Congress, concern about protecting workers and
communities has led to special provisions in this year’s authorization and 7 >propriations bills and other
recent legislative initiatives that will better enable state and local authorities to respond rapidly when a

147 ;
147



applicants in Category IV (the 21 percent ir: the 10th through 30th percentiles), who are considered
“below average” and those in Category V, who make up the bottom 9 percent of test takers and are
considered “well below average.” Category V applicants are disqualified from military service by law.

Table 5.—Armed Forces Qualification Test (AFQT) categories by corresponding percentile score

ranges
AFQT category Percentile score range
I 93-100
0 65-92
OIA 50-64
MB 31-49
IV 10-30
Vv 1-9

—

By definition, the newly unqualified are in the lower range f the AFQT distribution, as shown in
Table 6. (The civilian data in Table 6 come from a nationwide administration of the ASVAB toa large
random sample of civilian youth in 1980.’ The use of these data for comparative purpose assumes that
the current distribution of aptitudes among youth nationwide is about the same as it was in 1980, a fairly
reasonable assumption.)

Table 6.—AFQT scores of selected military and civilia.. populations

AFOQT category Newly unqualified FY 1989 recruits 1980 civilians 18 to 23
I — 4 4
0 _— 35 33
5

A 5 27 } 32
IIIB 72 29

IV 24 6 24
Vv _ _— 7
Total 100 100 100

*Civilian data only available for category III as a whole.

The AFQT scores of the newly unqualified are substantially lower than those of civilian youth. None
of the newly unqualified are in the top two AFQT categories, a consequence of the way this group is
defined. The great majority (72 percent) are concentrated in the lower part of the “average” range
(Category IIIB). About one quarter (24 percent) are in Category IV and would be considered “below
average.” None is in the lowest category, because there are no Category V recruits. (Category V appli-
cants are among the “old unqualified.”) In contrast to the AFQT scores of the newly unqualified, the
scores of new recruits tend to be higher than those of civilians, largely because the enlistment screening
process excludes most applicants in Category IV and ali in Category V. Almost one-third of civilian
youth fall in these bottom two categories. While there is a streng association between race and AFQT

scores among all recruits, the association between these two variables for the newly unqualified is rather
modest, as Table 7 shows.



During each of the cutbacks, conversion from defense to civilian production was explored as a key
means of maintaining the productivity of facilities and workers idled by defense. By definition, eco-
nomic conversion refers to “a planning process for developing alternative uses for defense facilities and

workers engaged in defense production in advance of changes in policy or budget reductions that may
curtail work at the facilities.”**

The issue of conversion is often divided into two distinct yet intertwined areas: industry conversion
and manpower conversion. More attention has been given to the issue of industry conversion than that of
manpower conversion, which is more difficult to approach and to affect. This is especially true of the
defense industry labor force, which tends to be more highly skilled in specialized disciplines than the
general commercial workforce. Unlike the challenge of adjusting from the production of defense items
to similar commercial goods, facilitating workers’ transitions into personally satisfying, challenging, and
economically rewarding jobs is highly difficult, and retraining efforts are probably essential. For ex-
ample, the skills and mode of operation for “defense engineers” is often viewed as incompatible with
commercial ways of doing business. This “fact” is highly exaggerated; nevertheless, some of the conver-
sion problems raised in the 1970s were attributed to the “defense program mentality” of the converted
workers. In the case of the subway cars, this involved building the product to defense’s high-tech
standards—and then finding that the product just wouldn’t last when put to commercial use.

The nation’s industrial conversion (and reconversion) capability “saved” the nation during World War
II. The success of the post-war reconversion was a result of careful advance planning and factors unique
to the time: a high level of pent-up demand, high savings rate, and industry’s eagerness to return to its
“real business”—meeting the needs of the nation’s consumers. Following the war, the new civilian
economy flourished as never before. Companies eagerly returned to the businesses they had engaged in
before converting to the war effort; the process was relatively simple, since plant, equipment, and
manpower were available and demand had strongly reemerged. Despite the fact that 10 million soldiers
had been demobilized and returned to the United States looking for work, the unemployment rate only
reached 3.9 percent in 1947—up from a wartime low of 1.2 percent.** It should be noted, however, that
the bulk of the reconversion took place through market mechanisms. The few cases (c.g., shipbuilding
and aircraft) where the government attempted to foster reconversion through subsidies and other means

were generally unsuccessful because the industrial facilities were ill-equipped to meet commercial
market needs.*

Despite the effectiveness of conversion after World War II, reconversion efforts met with relatively
little success in subsequent times, as defense production (and company operations) became increasingly
specialized. During the late 1960s and early 1970s, industries and plants were found to have no institu-
tional memory of producing civilian goods and were unable to transfer their knowledge of specialized
defense items and processes. Conversion is likely to be even more difficult today because of a number of
industrial and economic changes that have taken place in the intervening years. Factors that affect
today’s conversion capabilities include the following:

* The existing low savings rate and federal budget deficit crisis reduce the likelihood of other
countercyclical federal or private investment spending

Defense activities use increasingly specialized equipment, processes, skills, and management
methods. Many of the facilities dedicated to defense are not compatible with commercial opera-
tions, making it difficult to identify alternative uses for an individual site. In extreme cases, plants
and companies make products (such as explosives or ammunition) that are unique to defense
requirements. The conversion of many of thesc to civilian use would be extremely difficult—if not
impossible.

Many civil sectors of thc economy now find it difficult to compete effectively with foreign produc-
ers of low-cost, high-quality consumer goods. Unlike the situation that prevailed after World War
IL, when U.S. industry dominated the world, today’s defense producers may not believe it advanta-
geous to look toward commercial markets for future growth. More likely in today’s environment,
commercial layoffs will compound any problems caused by unemployment in the defense sector.

145 145



of award by family income level.” The total number of aided students in the 1986-87 academic year was
4,194,871. Over half of these students came from families with incomes less than $19,999. Total federal
expenditures anticipated for student assistance in 1986-87 were $24 billion.

NPSAS does provide us with comparative information on all undergraduates and on veterans com-
pared with nonveterans. Unfortunately we are not able to investigate the active duty military who are

also participating in the student assistance programs because the NPSAS file does not so designate the
students,

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Table 7.—Number and percentage of active duty enlisted personnel by years of service within
race-ethnicity groups (as of June 30, 1990)

Race-ethnicity

Years of White Black Hispanic Other’ Total
service N % N % N % N % N %
1 through 4 543,050 46.2 168,351 42.1 43,797 51.0 30,195 39.1. 785,393 45.2
5 through & 245,271 20.9 86,024 215 14685 17.1 14,331 18.6 369,311 20.7
9 through 12 149,307 12.7 63,240 15.8 11,306 13.2 10,701 13.9 234,554 13.5
13 through 16 108,716 9.3 42,346 106 8242 96 9,974 129 169278 97
17 or more 126,544 10.8 39,64. 99 7,748 9.0 11,816 15.3 185,749 10.7
Unknown, 1663.1 311 al 41 al 311 4 2,326 a
Total 1,174,553 100 399,913 100 85,819 100 77,208 ~—:100 1,737,493 100
Source: Defense Manpower Data Center, Arlington, VA. oO

“Other includes such categories as American Indians, Alaskan natives, Asians and Pacific Islanders.

This exercise does not show minorities to be at a disadvantage relative to whites, But these numbers
were calculated assuming that there would be no restrictive standards (e.g., aptitude, performance)
applied to those in the 1- to 4-year tenure group to help make the decision regarding who will be cut.
Such requirements would not be unreasonable to expect and could change the picture for minorities.
Further, those with 9 through 12 years of sevice may not be overlooked when reductions are made.

Occupation is another contender for differential cuts. With only guesses being offered for the degree
of overall drawdown, it is tough to prophesy exactly which positions will be eliminated as the services
downsize. But, if they cut the “tail” (e.g., clerical and service and supply jobs) rather than pull the
“teeth,” minorities could be riffed disproportionately. Table 8 collapses the occupational areas presented
above in Table 6 into three main occupational categories and six subcategories (including non-occupa-
tional). Given training inv-_.ments, it would not be unreasonable to assume plans to make less drastic
cuts within the highly technical fields. Also, deeper cuts for clerical jobs might occur since civilian
substitution is more likely in this domain.

In light of such supposition, if one were to make a guess that the FY 1992 reductions were to be
distributed as follows: 60,000 technical, 80,000 clerical, 50,000 craftsmen, 40,000 service and supply,
45,000 general military skills, and 25,000 non-occupational, or cuts ranging from 12 percent for technical and
craftsmen to 26 percent for service and supply, to 30 percent for clerical, then the results might be:

Race-ethnicity Number cut Percentage decrease
White 195,400 16.6
Black 75,479 18.9
Hispanic 15,226 17.7
Gther 13,895 18.0

Again these hypothesized reductions do not take into consideration the application of more stringent
performance standards. Also, while a problem for minorities is hardly convincing from these conserva-
tive simulations, one must also consider that there will be a great reduction in the numbers of youth
coming into service, New entrants will not replenish the numbers leaving. For example, as things stand
now (i.c., using the 1989 minority percentage levels), while at least 66,000 to 75,000 blacks are expected

to depart from the military in FY 1991, only 40,000 or so will be coming in. And things could get
much worse.

29



Military education officers call this group “a ready market” for higher education—adults armed with
veterans’ benefits and in need of retraining. “A number of people will be looking at combining educa-
tion with work,” said Duane Geiken, command director of education for the Strategic Air Command of
the U.S. Air Force. “And you’ Il have a fairly experienced, older student—25 to 29 years old—with
money to pay for education . ... Many of those coming out will have military experiences that have no
counterpart in the civilian job sector. They will simply have to be retrained.”

Since most of the military personnel in these age groups are married (between 60 percent and 75
percent), military spouses also must be factored into the equation,

Currently, older active duty individuals are more likely to be married than younger ones. However,
the Department of Defense (DoD) population report describes a more complex relationship between age
and marital status related to a change in “social norms” for women in the military. Women in the
military are more likely to be married than men, up to age 22. Above age 22, men in the service are
more likely to be married.¢

The DoD population report shows that 24,297 or about 9 percent of the FY 1989 new accessions
(total military) were married. However, for the overall active duty servicemembers, the number of
spouses (as of March 1990) is estimated as 1.1 million (some enlisted personnel who reported being
married may actually have been in the process of separation). The number of “other adult dependents”
for all services was about 14,000.”

Military counselors providing “transition assistance” to servicemembers and their families report that
a large proportion of military spouses are concerned about upgrading job skills or re-entering the labor
market to supplement family income.

Pezsonnel who are separsted early and leave with veterans benefits will probably not provide as
substantial a pressure point on the current student assistance system as the “newly unqualified.” Less
clear, however, is the extent to which families of early separatees will exert demand upon student
assistance programs. If spouses and adult children of separatees return to a local community earlier than
planned and transition assistance supports educational aspirations, enrollment interest could be
substantial.

In short, the drawdown of military personnel is likely to boost demand for further education and
training among those who have been forced out as they seek to transfer, upgrade, or acquire new skills to
compete in the civilian labor market.

The Remaining Force

Assumptions of military analysts are that between 1990 and 1995, the active duty force will be cut by
one-quarter, from roughly 2 million to 1.5 million. A smaller force ostensibly narrows the pipeline of
personnel who will participate in postsecondary education, either in voluntary education programs
within the services or upon reentry into civilian life. Beyond the effects of size, however, participation in
postsecondary education among the active duty enlisted force is a function of the composition of the
remaining force, their geographic distribution, their occupational assignments, and the incentives and
opportunities provided by the military services.

In general, according to a recent study of adult higher education and the military,

The enlisted force is clearly a target group for higher edvcation, especially at the associate and
bachelor’s degree levels. The military training and experience of the active component
enlisted personnel is generally technical. Combat armed servicemembers at sergeant levels are
heavily engaged in managerial responsibilities in personnel, logistics, finance, and supervision.

7G
im



The TA programs fully fund the cost of completing high school and generally pick xp 75 percent of
the tuition costs incurred by servicemembers enrolling in approved courses at accredited postsecondary
institutions. In the last few years, budget constraints have compelled the services to cap the allowable
amounts per course or per credit (with differential caps for undergraduate and graduate study) or per
fiscal year.

Despite the demeastrated value of TA—a strong correlation between use of tuition assistance and
promotion and retention within the military has been reported—the programs remain particularly vulner-
able in times of austerity. “Because voluntary postsecondary education is not commonly a high priority
for the operationally oriented military decisionmaker,” write Anderson and Kime, “there will be tempta-
tion to sacrifice Tuition Assistance as [further] budget cuts are made.”°°

Reserve Officers Training Corps

Reserve Ofticers’ Training Corps (ROTC) combines college courses in military science with summer
training sessions to prepare future officers for the military services, Located at 4-year and 2-year college
campuses, ROTC units provide scholarships for selected students to complete their education in ex-
change for military service. There are nearly 2,000 colleges and universities throughout the United
States with agreements that support such programs. The following table summarizes participation and
expenditures for the ROTC units in the armed services.

Characteristics Army Navy* Air Force
Number of host units 350 66 148
Number of agreeme nts 1,244 136 614
Enrollments 55,592 10,862 19,549
Number of scholarships 10,350 6,589 4,800
Scholarship dollars $66.8M $56.1M $52.5M

*Marines are reported as part of the Navy statistics.

Higher Education Loan Repayment Program: Active Duty
and Reserve Personnel

There are two loan payback programs for active duty and reserve personnel relating to the federal
student aid assistance Title IV programs. One permits 15 percent of a loan or $500 to be repaid for each
year of service performed as an enlisted member of the Selected Reserve of the Ready Reserve and the
other permits 33.3 percea:t or $1,500 for each year of service performed on active duty as an enlisted
member in a military specialty specified by the Secretary of Defense.

An additional loan program serves to attract health professionals to the Selected Reserve. This pro-
gram also relates to loans made, insured, or guaranteed under part B of Title IV of the Higher Education
Act of 1965 and health education assistance loans made or insured under part C of Title VII of the
Public Health Service Act.

191 t oy



Appendix £

TEACHER OCCUPATIONAL COMPETENCY TEST
Administered By .
National Occupational Competency Testing Institute

2/14/89
Tandidate Name: DOE, JOHN Soc Sec Num: G00-U00-0000 |
Test Center: Anywhere, U.S.A. Center Code: 900
Test Title : Auto Body Repair - Form D Test Code : 2 -2

wee NT indicates section NOT TAKEN *#*

'RITTEN TEST.

Candidate center Nation

Welding 75.0% 74.7% 69.2%

Filling Operations 85.0% 74.4% 73.1%

Repairing Sheet Metal 983.3% 67.2% 67.2%
Refinishing 78.9% 64.9% 66.3%

Panel Replacement 93.3% 76.5% 78.3%

Frame (Unitized Body) 100.0% 79.0% 72.2%
Front-End Alignment 100.0% 63.8% 70.6%
Electrical & Accessory Systems 66.7% 60.8% 60.0%
Glass, Trim and Hardware 72.7% 71.1% 68.8%
Estimating, Tools, Equipment 88.2% 81.4% 78.5%

Total 84.7%

C=Candidate Score sefeeee
xTM=68% of Center pop.
x=68% of Nation pop.

70.0%
sees socefesee seeee LO00%

XXXXXXX}| C
eee le ece bees | XXXKKKKHKX| Coo]. eee
20% 30% 40% SO% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

‘ERFORMANCE,

Candidate Center Nation

Sheet Metal Repair 80.0% 84.3% 84.0%

Diagnosing Structural Damage 100.0% 86.6% 79.4%

Glass Trim Repair 100.0% 88.6% 89.2%

Electrical Work 100.0% 94.6% 90.2%

. Total 88.7% 87.7% 85.1%

C=Candidate Score we feeeeleceefecee[eeeeleeee|ecee [ence |eeee | eee + 100%
xTM68% of Center poo. | XXXCXX

x=68% of Nation pop.....|.... seep occa beeen | oe eXXMAKKEXK. «-

30% "30%" 40%" "50%" "604° “70% “gox 90% 100%

m 102



Reuse of the facility proved to be difficult. Although a series of tenants occupied the building starting
in the mid-1970s, none reached the full employment capacity that had occurred under Raytheon.

For longer-term recovery, the creation of the Myles Standish Industrial Park was the most significant
action that was taken. Through city, state and federal assistance, both financial and program-related,
Taunton was able to redistribute and retain some of its highly skilled workers to this new hub of activity.

Some important elements of Taunton’s resurgence are worth noting. Raytheon’s early notification to
its workers and employees aided the transition, while the company’s dedication and strong
reemployment effort put many back to work in a short period of time. In this particular situation, active
participation from all aspects of the community was of great assistance, and the prior commitment on the
part of the city to establish an industrial development committee created an easily identifiable vehicle for
change.

Case Studies: Factors Affecting Success

Each of these dislocations had many characteristics that were dissimilar: different types of cities in
different regions, a variety of defense and other commercial businesses, varying numbers of workers laid
off with different skill levels, and different degrees of pre-established economic development infrastruc-
tures. Nevertheless, there were also similar factors which aided in the long-term success that the cities
experienced, Some characteristics of easier transitions were:

+ Early notification of plant closure. Early notification for employees aids significantly in the tran-
sition, allowing displaced workers time to find training or jobs or to relocate to a different arca. It
also helps considerably in keeping a positive image for the company within the community. It
should be noted that 60 days’ notice of layoffs is now required by law for most facilities could
cause a significant dislocation in a local area.

Advanced planning for reemployment and economic recovery. In many cases, this planning in-
cluded pre-established economic development teams that could serve as focal points for federal
assistance and the community’s recovery. These cities had easier transitions during downturns in
the economy because their vehicles for change had already been put in place. In an emergency
situation, it is one less measure that must be taken before recovery can begin.

Effective local, state, and national leadership. Those cities that were able to rebuild did so because
of immediate interest and funding at all levels of government for extended periods of time. When
given immediate resources and reasonable assurances for the future, most workers chose to stay in
the same locale, which resulted in quicker short- and longer-term recovery for the community.

Immediate establishment of job placement and training programs. One of the greatest short-term
benefits to laid-off workers is training that will lead to employment opportunities. These programs
are instituted at the state or federal level or, often, by the affected company. In addition, some
communities have enlisted the help of job consultants, who assist in all facets of placement—from
identification of skills and alternate carecr paths, to resume drafting and distribution to interview
training.

Lessons Learned

As noted elsewhere in this paper, past budget cutbacks are very different (and much more severe)
than those envisioned for the early- to mid-1990s. Although the magnitude of future cutbacks in defense
spending is not yet known, few expect the reductions to average more than 4 percent per year over a
5-year period. In contrast, the reduction in defense spending betwecn 1945 and 1947 averaged 46 percent
per year; from 1954 to 1956 the drop was 7.6 percent annually; and between 1972 and 1973 the decline
was 8.5 percent.*? Despite these differences, the past experiences described above offer lessons that can
aid our understanding of any impending contraction as well as our ability to deal with it constructively.

144
144



AVAILABLE TOCTS

Air Conditioning, Heating & Retrigeration
Airframe and Power Plant Mechanics
Appliance Repair

Architectural Drafting

Audio-Visual Communications Technology
Auto Body Repair (2)

Auto Mechanics

Baking

Brick Masonry

Bulking and Home Maintenance Services
Building Construction Occupations
Building Trades Maintenance

Cabinet Making and Millwork

Carpentry

Child Care and Guidance

Civil Technology

Commercial Art

Commercial Photography

Computer Science for Secondary Teachers
Computer Technology

Cosmetology

Diesel Engine Repair

Diesel Mechanics

Drafting Occupations

Electrical Construction 27-1 Maintenance
Electrical installation

Electronics Communications

93

Appendix A

Electronics Technology
Heating

Heavy Equipment Mechanics
industrial Electrician
industrial Electronics
Machine Drafting

Machine Trades

Masonry

Masonry Occupations
Materials Handling
Mechanical Technology
Microcomputer Repair
Painting and Decorating
Plumbing

Power Sewing

Printing - Letterpress
Printing - Offset

Quantity Food Preparation
Quantity Foods

Radio/TV Repair
Refrigeration

Scientific Data Processing
Sheet Metal

Smail Engine Repair (2)
Textile Production and Fabrication
Tool and Die Making
Welding (2)

BEST COPY AVAILABLE



men aged 30 to 54 in 1987 with 1 to 15 years of active duty service. Younger and older veterans may not
be typical for this period, and veterans who served 20 or more years (coded in years-of-service interval
16-20) are eligible for a military pension. Veterans with less than 1 year of service are unlikely to be
eligible for veterans benefits. Also excluded are men with less than 9 years of schooling when entering
the military. Finally, the sample is restricted to men with a non-negative schooling increment between
entry to service and the survey date.

For those with 9 to 18 years of schooling, the SOV gives information on both the highest grade
completed when entering the military and the highest grade completed on the survey date. Information
on the highest degree obtained is combined with the grade completion variables to construct the school-
ing variables used here. High school graduates with posthigh school vocational training are assigned 13
completed years of schooling. A detailed description of the schooling variables is given in the appendix.

Table | reports descriptive statistics for the selected sample.'? Of the 3,337 veterans in the SOV with
service in the Vietnam era or later periods, 2,388 met the criteria for inclusion in the selected sample.
The frequency distributions at the top of the table show that most men in this group were between 35
and 44 years old in 1987, and the majority had served between 3 and 5 years. The sample means show
that the average years of schooling completed when entering the military was 12.5, increasing to 14.0 by
the survey date. Sixty-one percent of the sample increased their educational attainment since entering the
military. Ninety-five peccent of the sample served in the Vietnam era and 16 percent served in the early
AVF period. Most were enlisted volunteers.

Fully 78 percent of the sample acquired some sort of education or training since discharge, and 52
percent of the sample went to college or graduate school. A large fraction also received vocational,
technical, or on-the-job training. Sixty-three percent of the sample received some sort of financial aid.
Fifty-five percent report receiving aid through the GI Bill, 2 percent used the VEAP, and 3.3 per. at
used some other VA program." Overall, 57 percent received financial assistance from the VA. Statistics
not shown in the table indicate that program usage rates were higher among Vietnam than early AVF
veterans: 58 percent of sample members with Vietnam-era service used VA education and training
programs, while only 46 percent of veterans with no Vietnam-era service used these programs.

Among VA program users, 77 percent went to college or graduate school. But it is important to note
that many program users do not increment their schooling. Similarly, many veterans who attend school
do not receive VA assistance, although they may receive assistance from other governmental sources.
These facts are summarized in the following cross-tabulation:

Used VA educational No VA educational
benefits benefits
Schooling 676 253
Increment (28.3%) (10.6%)
No schooling 343 1,116
Increment (14.4%) (46.7%)

Among sample members not receiving VA educational benefits, 114 received benefits from other
sources,

3. The Effect of Veterans Benefits on Education and Earnings
Equations (4), (5), and (6) constitute the basic framework for inference used to estimate the effect of

veterans benefits. Before presenting estimates of these equations, however, results from a simpler

199
sr



Table 7.-Distribution of AFQT scores among the newly unqualified by race

AFOQT category White Black Other
MA 6 3 3
NB 73 69 74
Iv 21 28 23

The proportions of white, black, and “other” individuals in each AFQT category differ, but not
greatly. Their mean AFQT percentile scores (not shown in Table 7) are 35, 31, and 30, respectively. In
the lower ranges of the AFQT distribution, differences by race are not as marked as they are across all
scores. In effect, the tested aptitude of a white youth selected at random from this population should not
be much different from that of a black youth or a member of another racial minority.

Occupational Composites

The AFQT is only one of many test composites that are constructed from the 10 ASVAB subtests.
Most of the other are occupational composites used to place recruits in military jobs. Each service has its
own set: the Army has 10, the Navy 11, the Marine Corps 6, and the Air Force 4. The Air Force com-
posites, displayed in Table 8, are the most widely used in military manpower research. The Army, Navy,
and Marine Corps have similar cor ‘posites, in addition to others.

Table 8.—Common aptitude composites and their component ASVAB subtests

Mechanical Mechanical Comprehension
Auto and Shop Information
General Science

Administrative Coding Speed
Numerical Operations
Work Knowledge
Paragraph Comprehension

General Work Knowledge
Paragraph Comprehension
Arithmetic Reasoning

Electronics Arithmetic Reasoning
Mathematics Knowledge
Electronics Information
General Science

By examining the composite scores of the newly unqualified, we can learn more about the occupa-
tion-related abilities these youths will bring to the labor market. Table 9 shows the mean percentile
scores of the newly unqualified. broken out by sex.



Me, Jon Hetiner

industnal Assessment Coordinator
Upper Valley Joint Vocational Schools,
8811 Career Orive

Piqua, CHIO 48356

Phone: (512) 778-8419

Me. James Piper, Assoc. Pratessor
Coardinator of Vocational Program

Ocpartment of Educational Leadership

Snyder Haul 102

University of Toledo

2801 West Bancroft St.
Toledo. OHIO 43606-3300
Phone: (419) $37-2049

Or. Cyde 8. Knight, 416 CLB
Trade anc incustrial Education
Cklanoma State University
Stillwater, OKLAHOMA 74078,
Phone: (405) 744-6275

Or. Larry J. Kennexe

Postsecondary & Tech. Educ. Dept.
Snell Hail, Room 301

Oregon State University

Corvallis. OREGON 97331

Phone: (S03) 737-2961

Mr, Roger Keith, Csordinator

OCA, Reschini House

Canter for Vocational Personnel Prep.
Indiana University at Peansyivania
indiana, PENNSYLVANIA 15705
Phone: (412) 357-4434

Or. Frederick Weich
102 Rackley Builsing
Pennsyivania State University

University Park, PENNSYLVANIA 16802

Phone: (614) 863-0504

Ms, Pat Janisheck:

Division of Vocational Education
‘Temple University-Ritter Hall 339
13th Street & Monigomery
Philactelpnila, PENNSYLVANIA 19122
Phone: (218) 787-8376

BEST COPY AVATLABLE

Ms. Conauance T. Baker

Vocational Technical Education
Oepanment of Education

Roger Williams Building

22 Hayes Street

Providence, RHCOE ISLAND 02908
Phone: (401) 277-2691

Or. Lowell Lerwick
Vocational/Technical Teacher Ed.
Dakota State University

Madison, SOUTH DAKOTA 57042
Phone: (605) 256-5177

Or. James Lorenz, Director
Vocational-Technical Education
Sox 172

Midcle Tennessee State University
Murtreesboro, TENNESSEE 37132
Phone: (615) 898-2098

Or. Jerry L. Witcenski, Professor
Dept. of Occup. & Voc Educ.
University of North Texas

P.O. Box 13857

Danton, TEXAS 76203

Phone: (817) 565-2093

“x. Thomas H, Arcy, Chair
Industrial Technology Oepartment
College of Technology

University of Houston

University Park - 4800 Calhoun
Houston, TEXAS 772044083
Phone: (713) 749-4854/749-4851

Or. Maurice Thomas
Industnal Technology and
Education Department
Utah State University
Logan, UTAH 84322-6000
Phone: (801) 750-1795

99
LGi

Mr. Lou Ganibacn ang

Me, Peter McCiure

‘Adult ana Vocational/Technical
Onision

State Cepartment of Education

120 State Street

VERMONT 0S602

(802) 828-3101

Or. Kurt Eschenmann

Vocational /Technical Education

313 Lane Hail

Virginia Polytechnic institute and
State University

Blacksburg, VIRGINIA 24061

Phone: (703) 231-6384

Or. John & Bontacini

Dept. af Educational Leadership
and Human Oevelopment

George Mason Ur sity

4400 University Boulevarct

Fairtax, VIRGINIA 22030

Phone: (703) 764-6102

Or. G. W. Seed, Professor

Department of Industrial and
Engineering Technology

Cantral Wasnington University

Ellensburg, WASHINGTON $8926

Phone: (509) 983-1758

Or. Nolan Browning, Chairman
Oepartment of Vocational Education
W. V, Institute of Technology
Montgomery, WEST VIRGINIA 25136
Phone: (304) 442-3125

Or. Neal W. Prichard, Professor
‘Undergraduate Program Oirector
‘Vocational, Technical & Adult Ed,
418 Harvey Halt
University of Wisconsin « STOUT
Menomonie, WISCONSIN 84781
Phone: (715) 232-2163 or 1311



Data provided by the Education Directorate of the Secretary of Defense show FY 89 and FY 90
expenditures and participants in these two programs:

Expenditures Participants
(in millions)

Loan repayment

FY 89 $18.5 19,916
FY 90 $20.8 16,540
Health professionals

FY 39 $2.5 820
FY 90 $18 675

Montgomery GI Bill and Other Veterans’ Education Programs

The GI Bills that have been enacted since the end of Worid War II are seen as entitlements to com-
pensate servicemembers for military auty and to facilitate their readjustment to civilian life. The primary
active programs are the post-Vietnam Era Veterans Educational Assistance Program (VEAP) and the
Montgomery GI Bill programs for active duty (Chapter 30) and reserve personnel (Chapter 106).
Eligibility for benefits under the post-Korean GI Bill (the Cid, or “noncontributory” GI Bill) effectively
expired December 31, 1989, although some veterans will be able to convert those benefits to the
Montgomery GI Bill.

VEAP, enacted in 1977 to provide benefits to those entering the services between January 1977 and
April 1987, became the first contributory education benefit program within the then-VA. Eligible
personne] must take a monthly payroll deduction or make a lump sum contribution up to $2,700, which
the government matches 2 to 1. It has generally been viewed as something short of successful because of
low participation and use rates (provisions permit the refund of VEAP contributions under certain
circumstances). For instance, of the 1.15 million who have paid into the program since its inception,
only 188,000 to date have actually used the benefits at colleges or other schools.

Enacted first as a pilot program in 1984 and made permanent by legisiation in 1987, the Montgomery
GJ Bill for active duty personnel provides up to $10,800 in basic benefits, in exchange for a 3-year
enlistment and a $1,200 contribution by the enlistee. The contribution is not refundable. Lesser
amounts—up to $5,040—are made available to rerervists upon completion of their initial duty. In some
cases, the individual services supplement the DVA benefits with “kickers” such as the Army and Navy
College Funds. Thus, depending upon military department and occupational specialty, a servicemember
can walk away with as much as $25,000 in education benefits. The benefits can be used for vocational/
technical education, college-level study, work/study, on-the-job training, and correspondence courses.

Under Chapter 30, active duty personnel may elect not to participate in the Montgomery GI Bill at the
time they enter the service, but such « decision is irrevocable. As part of a package of transition assis-
tance benefits, DoD authorizing !egislation enacted in 1990 (P.L. 101-510) gives involuntarily separated
military personnel a “second chance” to participate in the program, as well as a “first chance” tc
VEAP-ers or personnel who elected not to participate in either VEAP or the Montgomery GI Bill.

To date, participation in the Montgomery GI Bill for active dt ‘y personnel has been high, as the Table

B-2 shows. Nearly 1 million servicemembers, representing roughly three-quarters of all cligible military
personnel, have signed up since the program began 5 years ago.

192



STATE OR TERRITORY

Virgin Islands

Virginia

Washington
West Virginia
Wisconsin

Wyoming

Occup. EXAM
NECESSARY FOR
CERTIFICATION?

Yes No

x

Xrewee

Xewee

UNIVERSITY GRANTING CREDIT

None

George Mason University
James Madison University
Old Dominion University
Virginia Commonwealth Univ.
Virginia Polytechnic Institute
Central Washington University
West Virginia Inst. of Tech.
University of Wisconsin-Stout

University of Wyoming

seeee*Required for preservice teachers lacking work experience.

Number surveyed:

54

Number responded: 53 (Guam did not respond)

16 106

30 Sem. Hours
9-12 Sem. Hours
24 Sem. Hours
Up to 30 Hours
30 Sem. Hours

Up to 45 Qtr. Hour:
30 Sem. Hours
24 Sem. Hours

Variable



The estimate of y in Table 5 is not precise, and a more efficient estimation strategy is required to
make meaningful comparisons with the estiinates in the Table 3.

Efficiency gains are had by interacting the instruments with personal characteristics so us to improve
the explanat sry power of the first-stage equation. Table 6 reports TSLS estimates for versions of equa-
tion (9) that include age and years-of-service main effects, along with the other covariates included in
the equations reported in Table 3. Also included are a period-of-service dummy variable, and dummy
variables to indicate having a high school diploma or some college at entry to the service. The excluded
instruments in this case are interaction terms for period of service with both of the entry-level schooling
dummies.

Table 6.—Two-Stage Least Squares estimates of the effect of veterans benefits on grade increment
(standard errors in parentheses)

Expanded sample Selected sample
Regressor 1) (2) GB) @)
Female (SEX) 0.026 0.031
(0.157) (0.155)
All races 0.021 0.026 0.040 0.044
other than white (0.083) (0.081) (0.087) (0.088)
Marital status 0.043 0.055 0.102 0.125
(0.075) (0.062) (0.084) (0.068)
Officer 0.385 0.375 0.175 0.168
(0.117) (0.111) (0.123) (0.124)
Drafted -0.218 0.228 -0.226 0.253
(0.090) (0.083) (0.111) (0.095)
Vietnam (VIET) -0.158 -0.104 0.113 0.211
(0.279) (0.210) (0.308) (0.224)
High school grad —-0.824 -0.798 -0.749 0.696
at entry (HS) (0.137) (0.105) (0.165) (0.119)
Some college -1.06 -1.02 -0.906 -0.831
at entry (COLL) (0.191) (0.141) (0.227) (0.156)
Used VA benefits 1.75 1.54 1.10 0.720
(0.942) (0.614) (1.04) (0.624)
R 0.075 0.076 0.069 0.066
2 dof) 10.8 (13) 15.2 (19) 7.22 (11) 11.0 (17)
Excluded VIET*HS*AGE VIET*HS*AGE VIET*HS*AGE VIET*HS*AGE
Instruments VIET*COLL*AGE —- VIET*COLL*AGE VIET*COLL*AGE — VIET*COLL*AGE
VIET*HS*SEX VIET*HS*YRSRV VIET*HS*YRSRV
VIET*COLL*SEX VIET*COLL*YRSRV VIET*COLL*YRSRV
VIET*HS*SEX
VIET*COLL*SEX

Notes:All equations include AGE and years-of-service (YRSRV) main effects. Expanded sample is the same as in Table 5
with the addition of veterans with any number of years of service (n = 2,815). The selected sample adds men aged 25-29 to
the sample in Table 1 (n = 2,477). Excluded instruments for columns (1) and (3) include the interactions of high school

at entry and college at entry dummies with a Vietnam-era service dummy; each education-service interaction is also
interacted with age and sex. Excluded instruments for columns (2) and (4) also include interactions with years of service.

207 ~
7 265



@) VE; = XiB + diy+ %,
where VE; = E}j-Eo;, B = B1-Bo, and € = €}j-€9;. Note, also, that (2) can be written
6) Yi = Xj5 + Epipo +VEjp + vi,

where the return to entry-level schooling (po) may differ from the return to the schooling increment (p).

Tre effect of veterans benefits on education is identified by Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) estimates
of (4), and the effect of the grade increment on earnings is identified by OLS estimates of (5).’ The
effect of veterans benefits on earnings can then be computed as the product of the two estimates. Alter-
nately, a “reduced form” earnings effect can be computed by OLS estimation of

(6) Yi = Ximo + EoiPo + dim + [eip + vil
where % = [5 + Bp], and x) = yp.

Specificatior Testing

A simple specification test for the assumptions underlying equations (4), (5), and (6) is to add the
program dummy, dj, to equation (5). A non-zero coefficient on dj in (5) would indicate that veterans
benefits are correlated with earnings for reasons other than through the schooling increment. One
interpretation of such correlation would be that veterans benefits affect earnings through variables other
than schooling. More importantly, correlation between earnings and benefit usage conditional on grade
increment might indicate that benefit users are special in a way that invalidates the use of differences
between benefit users and nonusers to estimate program effects.

Accomparison of different consistent estimates of the treatment effect provides another specification
test. If equations (4), (5) and (6) are correctly specifieu, the estimate of 1 formed by multiplying esti-
mates of y and p from equations (4) and (5), and the estimate of m, in the reduced form equation, (6),
will have the same probability limit. It should be noted, however, that if Ep; is included in equation (4),
so that equations (4-6) include the same covariates other than d; and AE;, this test can be shown to be
algebraically equivalent to the previous test.

The 1987 Survey of Veterans

The 1987 SOV targeted individuals who were identified as veterans in the outgoing rotation groups of
the Current Population Survey (CPS) between April 1986 and January 1987.° Of the 11,439 veterans
identified in outgoing CPS rotation groups, 9,442 were successfully interviewed for the 1987 SOV. Of
those not interviewed, many were deceased or not eligible for the survey because of insufficient time in

the military. Among veterans who served after 1980, the SOV generally interviewed only those who
served for at least 24 months.?

Because some of the information collected in the SOV could be used to identify individual veterans,
the Census Bureau maintains confidentiality by restricting the content of the SOV Public Use file. In
particular, information on age is grouped into 5-year intervals, information on length of service is
grouped into intervals of varying widths, and information on period of service is restricted to gross
measures such as whether or not the veteran served in the Vietnam Era.’° The period of service variables
also indicate whether volunteers served in the early AVF (before September 1980) or later. Another

limitation is that detailed information on educational attainment is unavailable for less educated
veterans,

The extract used here includes men who served in the Vietnam or early AVF periods, as defined by
the Department of Veterans Affairs’ period of service recodes.'! The extract is restricted to men because
teiatively few women served in this period and the experiences of those who did may be unusual; the
extract is restricted to Vietnam and early AVF veterans for the reasons discussed above. Included are

198

St



Table 7.—Competency acquisition stages

1. RECOGNITION Identify competencies; see
their importance for the job.

2. UNDERSTANDING Learn the competency
definitions; be able to explain
them in your own experience.

3. SELF-ASSESSMENT Assess own use of the
competencies.
4. PRACTICE Practice the competencies;

aim for superstar performance.

5. APPLICATION ON THE JOB (1) Select competencies for
use on the job; (2) set goals;
(3) plan actions.

Step 5. Reinforce the Learning Cycle

As we have seen, learning complex new behaviors and integrating them into an existing network of
experiences, beliefs, values, and behavior patterns requires a lot of nard work. One last challenge in this
process is to keep the individual from reverting to old, well-conditioned behaviors, a process frequently
referred to as “spontaneous recovery.”*

A cycle of learning and reinforcement is presented in Figure 5. Essentially, by repeating the compe-
tency acquisition steps in a cyclical manner as recommended, learned behavior is retained at a much
higher level. Specifically, using all four learning modes increases learning retention from 10 percent to
90 percent. Effective competency-based training includes all four modes of the cycle.

lee

122



Nontraditional Education, sets forth the case for continuing in-service college programs for service-
members (Anderson & Kime 1990).

Table 11.—DoD voluntary education program Fiscal Years 1988 and 1989 expenditures,
{in $ millions)

Marine Air Total
Army Navy Corps Force DoD
1988 1989 1988 1989 1988 1989 1988 1989 1988 1989
Personnel costs 38.0 40.7 56 59 4 5 22.6 17.1 66.6 64.2
Contract costs
(Non-instructional) 62 42 0 0 0 0 ao) 8 71 5.0
Contract costs
(Instructional) 65 13.1 25 44 0 a 6.6 A 15.6 17.7
Tuition assistance 27.1 29.0 188 15.4 76 7.2 434 369 96.9 88.5
Total 778 87.0 26.9 25.7 80 7.8 73.5 54.9 186.2 175.4

Source: DANTES Information Bulletins April 1990, Suppl. 3; May 1989, Suppl. 4.

Among the 735 SOC colleges and universities, 97 percent award credit for the College Board’s
College-Level Examination Program (CLEP) Subject Examinations; 87 percent award credit for CLEP
General Examinations and for DANTES Subject Standardized Tests (DSSTs); and 66 percent award
credit for American College Testing Program Proficiency Examination Program (ACT/PEP). DANTES
funds these testing programs within the military services. These tests are administered at testing sites
located generally in base education centers by test control officers approved and trained by DANTES.
During FY 1989, 95,690 CLEP, DSSTs, and ACT/PEP were administered within the military (See Table
12.) This represents an 11 percent increase from similar data for FY 1988. More integration of credits
based on nontraditional education such as those based on CLEP, DSSTs, and ACT/PEP testing into
traditional degree programs is a major goal of DANTES. The adult higher education community that
supports servicemembers appears tc be accepting this challenge.

Table 12,—DANTES testing funded in Fiscal Year 1989

Marine Air Total

Army Navy Corps Force DoD
CLEP general 14,591 8,808 1,774 14,215 39,388
CLEP subject 9,321 4,778 563 15,484 30,146
DSSTs 9,942 2,515 368 10,846 23,671
ACT PEP 902 487 15 1,081 2,485
Totals 34,756 16,588 2,720 41,626 95,690

Source: DANTES Information Bulletin April 1990, Suppl.3

Among the 735 SOC institutions, 100 percent of them award credit based on recommendations
contained in the American Council on Education’s Guide to the Evaluation of Educational Experiences
in the Armed Services (ACE Guide) regarding military service school courses (Servicemembers Oppor-
tunity Colleges 1990). In addition, 78 percent award credit based on recommendatiors contained in the
ACE Guide regarding military occupational specialties, rates, and ratings. Based on over 70,000

66
69



located in each state, the District of Columbia, and Puerto Rico. If any doubt exists regarding whether a

specific program is approved for DVA benefits, the state SAA is available to answer questions about
program approval.

Every college or university authorized to educate or train veterans has a veterans certifying official.
This individual is responsible for reporting enrollment status to the DVA. Many institutions have an
office of veterans affairs with a coordinator and counselors or advisors. A student enrolled at a specific
institution who desires to use his/her education benefits through DVA should locate and visit that office
on a high priority basis. College catalogues generally contain information regarding veterans affairs and
how to gain further information on use of GI educational benefits (Rowland 1990).

The DVA has experienced some problems in accomplishing its massive administrative mission.
Ronald H. Atwell, Vice President of the National Association of the Veteran Programs Administrators,
has classified these probiems into four basic categories:

Timeliness cf claims processing; the accuracy of the awards (of educational benefits); the
problems associated with communication between the veterans, and the school, with the
(DVA regional ) centers; and finally, the Department of Veterans Affairs and the Department
of Defense communication and coordination. (Atwell 1990, 2)

Atwell believes that the military services should be required to document counseling for
servicemembers who are separating. He wants the documentation to specifically include a statement
indicating that the eligibility status for veterans education benefits was discussed and that the member is
aware of his or her eligibility. Atwell is aware of cases in which the servicemember was separated early
and, as a result, lost eligibility for benefits. Furthermore, he found evidence to suggest that the veteran
did not realize taat early separation would cause the loss of eligibility for benefits (Atwell 1990, 7-8).

Perhaps the most significant problem is not DVA’s administration of the education benefits program,
but lack of use by veterans. Since the implementation of the Montgomery GI Bill, over 80 percent of
those active duty servicemembers eligible to join have done so by having $1,200 deducted from their
pay ($100 per month for the first 12 months on active duty). This money is non-refundable to the
servicemember or veteran. It must be used in terms of educational benefits.

Although it is too early for a full determination, preliminary data show that most returning veterans
are note taking advantage of their educational benefits by going to college. Hassles in obtaining eligi-
bility certification and the time-lags in receiving payments, especially the first payment, contribute to
personal decisions not to go to college. As shown in the composition of the military, most servicc-
members have family responsibilities. High percentages are male and minorities. Although most are
college-capable, many do not have fiscal resources or the personal priority for education achievement
needed to move from active military duty to full-time college without considerable personal and family
sacrifice. Positive experiences with in-service education programs may have helped some of them decide
to go on with their college pursuits on cither a full- or a part-time basis. But when faced with carecr
disruption and separation from the military and perhaps family financial hardships, returning veterans
need a strong advocate for postsecondary education to help them plan the achievement of educational
goals needed for entry into new civilian careers and for potential advancement within those careers.
Knowledgeable people involved in helping veterans with their educational pursuits, such as Ron Atwell,
question whether the DVA is “an advocate for the veteran” or a mere “administrator” for the education
benefits program (Atwell 1990, 5). Fiscal and personnel constraints and limitations, complexities in
benefits programs, fear of fraud, communications difficulties, the massive bureaucratic administrative
requirements inherent in the various programs, and perhaps even Congressional micro-guidance and
oversight contribute to DVA’s problems both in image and ability to accomplish its mission. Neverthe-

less, DVA’s role is substantial. Veterans need an effective advocate, especially in the area of education
and use of benefits.

72

3
qn


The statistics underlying equation (10) are laid out in Table 5.18 The top panel shows the statistics for
average postservice grade increment by period of service and entry-level schooling. The grade increment
is lower for early AVF veterans regardless of entry-level schooling, but the difference in grade increment
by period of service is larger for veterans without a high school diploma at entry. The lower panel shows
corresponding statistics for program use. Early AVF veterans were less likely to use VA programs
regardless of entry-level schooling, but the difference in program use is larger for those without a high
school diploma at entry. The ratio of the grade increment difference-in-differences (-0.285) to the program use
difference-in-differences (-0.104) is an estimate of y, equal to 2.73 (with a standard error of 2.4).

Table 5.—Difference-in-differences estimates of the effect of veterans benefits on grade increment
(standard errors in parentheses)

Grade increment Early AVF Vietnam Difference
(standard error)
qd) Q) QB)

Less than HS at entry 1.48 2.07 0.585
(0.232)

HS or better 1.09 1.39 0.300
(0.111)

Difference -0.393 -0.680

(standard error) (0.241) (0.089)

Difference-in-differences -0.285

((0.257))

Use of VA Benefits

Less than HS at entry 0.135 0.468 0.333
(0.072)

HS or better at entry 0.381 0.610 0.229
(0.033)

Difference 0.246 0.142

(standard error) (0.075) (0.025)

Difference-in-differences -0.104

(0.079)

Implied two-stage least squares estimate of the effect of veterans benefits on grade increment:
-0.285/-0.104 = 2.73

(2.40)

Notes: Sample same as in Table 1 with the addition of women and 25-29 year olds (n = 2,559).

206

2h8



attendance as their highest education level. However, fathers of the newly unqualified are only about
half as likely as CPS fathers to be college graduates (12 percent, 26 percent). The same pattern is evident
among the mothers, although the differences among the groups are not as large.

Employment Status

The great majority of the fathers and mothers in the labor market are employed (Table A-14). The
unemployment rate for the fathers of the newly unqualified is 2.6 percent, while that of the CPS fathers
is 2.3 percent. However others of unqualified youth are more than twice as likely as the comparison
mothers to be unemployed (8.5 percent vs. 3.9 percent).

Occupation

Open-ended descriptions cr‘ their parents’ primary occupation provided by respondents in Census
format were used to determine parental occupation. The descriptions were manually coded to 3-digit
Census occupation codes, which were then collapsed into 13 major Census categories.

Fathers of the newly unqualified are only half as likely to have professional or managerial occupa-
tions as are fathers in the CPS comparison group—15 percent as compared to 31 percent (see Table
A-5). They are also about half as likely to be found in sales occupations. On the other hand, they are
substantially more likely to have working-class occupations such as those in precision production,
machine operation, and transportation. Altogether, 52 percent of the fathers of the unqualified are in
these three categories, as compared to 38 percent of fathers in the general population.

The mothers’ occupations also show a downward shift, although it is not as marked as that of the

fathers. They are somewhat less likely than the comparison group to work as managers or professionals
and much more likely to work in the service sector or as machine operators.

Socioeconomic Index Scores

Socioeconomic Index scores have been assigned to records in the DoD and CPS data sets, based on
the occupations of the recruits’ parents and the CPS adults. The scores are a function of the income,
education, and prestige associated with each occupation. Stevens and Cho® developed such scores for
each 3-digit occupation code in the 1980 Census, revising earlier work by Duncan, Hauser, Featherman,
and others. Two sets of scores were developed—one for the total labor force and one for the male labor
force, called the Total Socioeconomic Index (TSEI) and the Male Socioeconomic Index (MSE]), respec-
tively. TSEI scores are the best socioeconomic measures of women’s occupations currently available;

they range from 11.80 to 88.65. MSEI scores, ranging from 13.98 to 90.45, measure the status of men's
occupations.

The mean sociceconomic index score of the fathers of newly unqualified youth is 32.2, while that of
CPS fathers is 40.1 (see Table A-6). Occupations with index scores around 32.0 include hardware sales
worker (32.1), communications equipment operator (31.5), dispatcher (32.1), and firefighter supervisor
(33.0). Most working class occupations have lower scores, generally ranging from about 15 to 25.
Occupations with status similar to those of CPS fathers (40.1) include information clerk (40.2), teachers’
aide (40.8), computer equipment supervisor (40.7), and fire inspector (40.0). The mean socioeconomic
status score of the mothers of unqualified youth is 30.8 and that of CPS mothers is 36.1. In terms of
status, the mothers of unqualified youth are closer to their CPS counterparts than the fathers.



Notes

"Examples of recent reports include America’s Choice: High Skills or Low Wages! The Report of the Commission on the
Skills of the American Workforce, Investing in People: A Strategy to Address America’s Workforce Crisis by the

Commission on Workforce Quality and Labor Market Efficien.y, and Made in America: Regaining the Productive Edge,
and Worker Training: Competing in the New International Economy by the MIT Commission on Industrial Productivity.

2Commission for Workforce Quality and Labor Market Efficiency, Investing in People: A Strategy to Address America’s
Workforce Crisis, U.S. Department of Labor, Washington DC: 1989, p. vii, Commission on the Skills of the American
Workforce, America’s Choice: High Skills or Low Wages!, National Center on Education and the Economy, Rochester NY:
June 1990, p. 1, 13, and Bamow, Burt S, and Bawden, D. Lee, Skill Gaps in the Year 2000: A Review of the Literature,
Revised Draft, Urban Institute Policy Memorandum for the U.S. Department of Labor, October 1990. 1-3.

2U. S. Congress, Office of Technology Assessment, Worker Training: Competing in the New International Economy,
OTA-ITE-457 (Washington, DC: September 1990), 25.

“See George Silvestri and John Lukasiewicz, “Projections of Occupational Employment, 1988-2000, Monthly Labor
Review, Volume 112, No. 11. November 1989, and William B. Johnston and Amold E. Packer, Workforce 2000: Work and
Workers for the Twenty-First Century, U.S. Department of Labor, 1987.

5Greg Kearsley, “Introducing New Technology into the Workplace: Retraining Issues and Strategies,” Investing in People:
A Strategy to Address America’s Workforce Crisis, Background Papers (Volume 2). Commission on Workforce Quality
and Labor Market Efficiency, U.S. Department of Labor (Washington DC: September 1989), 469.

‘Michael L. Dertouzos, Richard K. Lester and Robert M. Solow, Made in America: Regaining the Productive Edge, The
MIT Commission on Industrial Productivity, (Cambridge, MA: The MIT Press, 1989), 90-91.

7Galagan, Patricia A., ed. Gaining the Competitive Edge. (Alexandria, VA: The American Society of Training and
Development, 1988), 16.

"This discussion is taken from portions of America’s Choice: High Skills or Low Wages! The Keport of the Commission on
the Skills of the American Workforce (1990) and Made in America: Regaining the Productive Edge from the MIT
Commission on Industrial Productivity (1989).

9U. S. Congress, Office of Technology Assessment, op. cit., 26.
"[bid., for the findings of Oberle, Mincer, Bartel, ASTD, Camevale & Goldstein, and Craig & Evers, 128-130.
"[bid., citing John Bishop, “On-the-Job Training of New Hires,” 130.

"Max Carey, “How Workers Get Their Training.” U.S. Department of Labor. Bulletin 2226. February 1985. Note:
Individuals may zeceive more than one type of training in the survey, so the sum of the number receiving training from a

special source (school, formal program, OJT, or other) will add up to more than the total number of workers who need
training.

"American Society for Training and Development, Training America: Learning to Work for the 21st Century (Alexandria
VA: 1989), 12.

“american Society for Training and Development. New Foundations: State Economic Growth Through Training, (Fall
1989).

164

BEST COPY AVAILABLE | 15%



Appendix F

SURVEY OF NECESSITY OF OCCUPATIONAL EXAMINATIONS FOR
CERTIFICATION AND UNIVERSITIES GRANTING CREDIT FOR SUCCESSFUL
PASSING OF NOCTI TOCT EXAMINATIONS
(Conducted Spring 1989)

Occup. EXAM
NECESSARY FOR
STATE OR TERRITORY CERTIFICATION? UNIVERSITY GRANTING CREDIT = AMOUNT OF CREDIT
Yes No

Alabama x Atens State College 60 Qtr. Hours
Auburn University 30 Qtr. Hours

Alaska x None

Arizona x Northern Arizona Unversity 18 Qtr. Hours

Arkansas x Univ. of Arkansas at Fayette-

ville Up to 36 Hours
Univ. of Central Arkansas Up to 18 Hours
at Conway on Assoc. degree

California x None

Colorado x*(W) Colorado State University 40 Sem. Hours

Connecticut x Central Ct. State University 25 Sem. Hours

Delaware xX Delaware State College 24 Sem. Hours

District of Columbia x University of Dist. of Col. 22 Sem. Hours

Florida x Florida A & M 30 Sem. Hours
Florida International Univ. 30 Sem. Hours
University of Central Florida 30 Sem. Hours
University of Northern Florida 30 Sem. Hours
University of South Florida 30 Sem. Hours
University of West Florida 30 Sem. Hours

Georgia x Armstrong/Savannah State Coll. 25 Qtr. Hours
Georgia Southem College 25 Qtr. Hours
Georgia State University 25 Qtr. Hours
University of Georgia 25 Qtr. Hours
Valdosta State College 25 Qtr. Hours

Hawaii xX University of Hawaii 40 Sem. Hours

Idaho Xx Idaho State University 25-50 Sem. Hrs.
University of Idaho 45 Sem. Hours

Winois x

City-Wide Colleges of Chicago Variable

*only for specified occupational areas at present 103
we Written only

165



Crew Cuts: Effects of the Defense
Drawdown on Minorities

Janice H. Laurence

Time was when the term “crewcut” was associated with military entry. A young man arrived at boot
camp and took on a military identity by having his head shaved down to stubble. These days “crew cut”

brings to mind quite the opposite impression, given the prominence of the rumor and speculation
surrounding the defense drawdown.

The United States watched the past year’s dramatic developments in Eastern Europe with great
anticipation and jubilation. In response to the thawing of Cold War tensions and perceptions of greatly
reduced threats to our nation and its vital interests, there are plans to curtail the defense budget. One
means of achieving this goal is cutting end-strengths or reducing the size of the military forces. While
this may be good news in the realm of foreign affairs, many are wondering about the domestic implica-
tions of the drawdown. In particular, what will Defense downsizing mean for minorities in the military?
What happens to them when Uncle Sam doesn’t want them anymore?

The Defense Reducing Plan

Before looking specifically at the issues of minorities and the military, it may be useful to get a sense
of the force reduction plans being considered. According to the Director for Accession Policy within the
Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense (Force Management and Personnel):

... no one knows for sure what the size of the military is likely to be in five years. In fact...
the size of the military next year is still in doubt. Despite the uncertainty of specifics, the one
thing we know for sure is that end-strengths will be coming down rapidly.'

Like all reducing plans, the military drawdown is subject to deviation. Operation Desert Shield may
change the course or the pace of the drawdown, but events in the Middle East are not expected to
forestall the cutbacks in defense permanently. In fact, some would contend that a leaner, meaner (and
perhaps, more qualified) force can more than adequately thwart Third World hostilities.? A reduced and
reconfigured force may be just what the general ordered. A recent editorial in the Outlook section of
The Washington Post proclaimed “the United States already possesses more than adequate troops and
equipment to cope with the Iraqi situation.”? This is thought to be especially true because the need for
heavy military commitments to counter the Warsaw Pact and the Soviet threat has been removed.
Whether or not military experts would agree with this simplistic manpower and resource assessment, the
legislative and executive branches of the government remain committed to the force drawdown.

Note: The author is senior staff scientist with the Human Resource Research Organization. The views and opinions

expressed in this paper are those of the author and do not represent the official views of the Department of Defense, the
Department of Education, or the Human Resources Research Organization unless otherwise documented.

21



forces. In addition, there are over a million civilian employees of DoD, otherwise known as the civilian
component.

When considering the active component for postsecondary education purposes, the more than 1.1
million spouses and other adult family members should not be forgotten. In other words, between SO and
60 percent of the active component personnel within the military services have spouses and/or other
adult family members as dependents (see Table 3). Although the actual percentages differ among the

military services, approximately 11 percent of the active component forces are female servicemembers
(see Table 4).

Table 1.—Total mobilization personnel FY 1989

Active component 39.2%
Retired 29.8%
Ready reserve 30.5%
Standby reserve 5%

100% = 5,402,000

Source: Armed Forces Information Services, Defense 90 Almanac, 15,

Table 2.—Active duty officer/enlisted personnel as of March 31, 1990

Marine Air Total

Army Navy Corps Force DoD
Officer 106,255 71,597 20,087 102,195 300,134
Enlisted 639,712 505,856 175,816 436,667 1,758,051
Academy cadets 4,226 4,450 _ 4,229 12,905
Total 750,193 581,903 195,903 543,091 2,071,090

source: Armed Forced Information Services, Defense 90 Almanac, 24.

Table 3.—Adult family members of active duty servicemembers as of March 30,1990

Marine Air Total

Army Navy Corps Force DoD
Spouses 399,249 306,330 90,302 361,684 1,157,565
Other adult dependents 5,592 3,310 471 4,195 13,568
Total 404,841 309,640 90,773 365,879 1,171,133

Source: Armed Forces Information Services, Defense 90 Almanac, 31.



Apoendix 9

DIRECTORY - TOCT AREA TEST CENTER COORDINATORS - 1990

Cr. James W Seiman

Extension & Public Sennce Coordinator
Canter for Vocavanal & Adult Education
Auburn University

Cananue ang Thach

Auburn University, ALABAMA 36549-5526
Phone: (205) 644-3804

Me. Jie Natale

Bessemer State Tec'inical Callege
P.O. Box 308

Bessemer, ALABAMA 35020
Phone: (205) 428-6391

Or. Donald 0. Riggs, Professor
Canter for Exceilence in Education
Box $774

Northern Arizona University
Flagstatt, ARIZONA 86011
Phone: (602) $23-2611

Mr. Lae Oanner

Vocational & Tech. Educ, Div.
Three Cacitol Mail

Luther S. Hardin Bldg.

Untle Rock, ARKANSAS 72201-1683,
Phone: (501) 682-1271

Mr, Chris Almeida

Program Manacer tor industrial.
‘Heaith and Apprenticeship Ed.

721 Capitol Mail

Sacramento, CALIFORNIA 95814

Phone: (916) 445-6728

Me. George Lueddeke, Director
Educauonal Research & Cevelooment
Monawk College of Applied Ans

and Tecnnology
P.O. Box 2034
Hamilton, Ont., CANADA L8N3T2
Prone: (416) 2064

Mr, Jay Hollingsworth

Vocational Credentialing Officer
116 Vocational Education Building
Colorado State University

Fort Coifins, COLORADO 80523
Phone: (303) 491-7409

Or, Ropent Rinas
Vocationai/Technical Education
Cantrai Connecticut State University
161§ Staniey Street

New Britain, CONNECTICUT 06050
Phone: (203) 827-7413

Or. Donald Vornnolt
Cccupational Teacher Education
Delaware State College

1200 N. Qupont Highway

Dover, DELAWARE 19901
Phone: (302) 736-1594

Me. Santo P, Marzulle, Cnairman
Technical Teacher Training

Van Ness Campus, Bidg. 39, Rm. 101A
University of District of Calumbia

4200 Connecticut Ave.. N.W.
Washington, OIST. CF COLUMBIA 20008.
Phone: (202) 282-7300

Or, Robert E. Andreyka, Chairperson
Technology and Vocational Education
University of Noh Forida

4567 St. Johns Blut Road. S.
Jacksonville, FLORIOA 32216-6699
Phone: (904) 646-2683

Or, Ranert Vos. Chairman & Assoc. Professor

Oivision of Educational Policy & Hurnan
Resource Development

Florida intemational University

Tamuami Trail

Miami, FLORICA 33199

Phone: (305) 348-3390

Or. Robert Paugh, Assoc. Professor
Instructional Programs

University of Central Florida

P.O. Box 25000

Orlando, FLORIDA 32816

Phone: (407) 275-2141

Or. Billie T. Rader, Chairman
Technical and Vocational Studies
University of West Florida

11000 University Parkway
Pensacola, FLORIDA 32514-5753
Phone: (904) 474-2300

SG
BEST COPY AVAILABLE

Or. Freeman irvine, Jr.. Charman
industria! Educaton Oepanment
Florida A & M University

Martin Luther King Boulevard
Tallanassee, FLORIOA 32307
Phane: (904) $99-3037

Dr. Raymond Hill, Divector

Cee. Competency Testing Canter
College of Education - FAO 226
South Florida University

Tampa, FLORIDA 33620

Phone: (813) 974-3455

Or. James Rosebsook, Assoc. Prof.
Trade & Industial Education

112 Industrial Arts Building
University of Georgia

Athens. GEORGIA 30602

Phone: (404) $42-1792

Mc, Joaquin $, Pangelinan
Assistant State Cirector

for Vocational Education
Guam Cammunity Cailege
P.O. Box 23069, Guam Main Facility
GUAM, M.1, 96921
Phone: (671) 734-4311, ext. 249

Ms. Barbara Luckner-Loveless
Curriculum and instruction
University of Hawaii

1776 University Avenue
Honolulu, HAWAI 96822
Phone: (608) 948-7834

Me, Sho Ueda, T & | Supervisor
State Div. for Vocational Education
650 West State Street

Lan 8. Jordan Building

Boise, IDAHO 83720

Phone: (208) 394-3216

Mes, Sylvia Bush, Director

Canter for Testing and Assessment
Chicago City-Wide College, Room 912
228 West Jackson Goutevard

Chicago, ILLINOIS 60606

Phone: (312) 855-8069



DoD will not let the services quench their thirst for quality. They could impose “quotas” on the propor-
tion of lower scoring recruits. Not ceilings, but floors. And that might help minorities. The effect of
aptitude quotas on the military is still open to debate since the question of how much quality is enough
has not yet been resolved. But, as a rational employer, DoD may not welcome taking in more low-
aptitude youth than it has to.

Another possible problem is reduced funds for recruiting and advertising. Together with the bot-
tomed-out manpower pool and the gradual “browning” of America, this may keep minorities at the same
overall proportions among accessions and the total force. Tut there is indeed a rub here as well. While
the proportions might look O.K., the bottom line is that the force will be smaller. This means that even
if the balance remains the same, with a 25 to 30 percent cut, at least 15,000 to 20,000 more black youth
will be denied enlistment. And many, many more will be dismissed from the military—and its opportu-
nities—into the civilian sector. These minority members may get jobs and survive in the economy, but
could it be at the expense of those on a lower rung of the economic ladder? While perhaps a relatively
small number in the overall scheme of things (e.g., out of 3.5 million black youth aged 18 to 24), it’s
dangerous to say “not to worry” about a percentage here and there and there. And if the exodus from the
military as well as the enlistment denial rates are concentrated in a particular region (e.g., the South)
then these relatively low numbers may not be relatively small for certain areas.

Though there is discussion of transition assistance in the form of separation pay, higher rates of and
longer access to unemployment compensation, job training and placement assistance, extended opportu-
nities to get in on the Mongomery GI Bill, and extended health care coverage, these benefits may be
prohibitively expensive to offer and maintain and are short-term in nature. Further, they may not really
compensate for the more tangible benefits which minorities in particular seem to find in the military and
not on the outside. The post-service economic standing for veterans is a subject in much dispute. Though
it is widely assumed that military veterans outearn their non-veteran counterparts, research findings are
equivocal. Some studies supporting positive returns for veterans are suspect because of inadequate
accounting of higher aptitude and education levels for the military group and/or failure to account for
unemployment differences. Recently, groups of low-aptitude veterans were found to be worse off
economically and socially compared with their non-veteran counterparts.” Military training does not
assure a better post-service income. Though over 80 percent of military jobs have a civilian counterpart,
the distribution of military and civilian jobs is not the same. Further, transfer from the militazy to the
civilian sector is least problematic for technical jobs** which may not be as hard hit and in which minori-
ties are underrepresented. And of course it’s not likely that exiting servicemembers will be picked up by
the defense industries. In fact, DoD cuts are hitting as the overall economy is slowing. Terms like
“recession” and “increased unemployment” are becoming increasingly more common and alarming. It
may be particularly difficult at this time for veterans and would-be recruits to be absorbed into the
civilian economy. The military will be separating many who have not yet achieved journeyman status,
separating others who have young families, and retiring some who can ill-afford to enter the job market
at the entry level. Though enlisted personnel are more than adequately educated and possess many fine
basic and job skills, civilian employers often have misperceptions or at best have policies of promoting
from within.*® Thus, those who are leaving may lose. And those who are denied entry may as well.
Many will forego education, job training, character-building and respectable employment. If the services
heed General Powell’s advice to be sensitive to the impact of the downsizing on minorities, there will
still be a void because of the queue seeking entry in addition to the current levels of minority enlist-
ments. In other words, even more minorities are interested in joining the military than the sizable
numbers who apply and are accepted. Though social reform is not the military’s primary :nission, it has
indeed indirectly served the social good for over a century, employing and educating Indians, blacks,
and immigrants.*° Tomorrow’s smaller military may continue to be egalitarian and afford training and
education opportunitics, but it will uplift fewer people. Other agencies will have to bear some of the
responsibility, and if they don’t, more youth will be lost even if democracy is gaining overseas. And that

is the downside of the defense drawdown for military minorities, It’s an important issue which needs
attention, now.

33


ee

traditional path to higher education (given availability of financial aid) cannot be anticipated
for all. Instead, more innovative and strengthened education and training programs must be
available.

Will the “newly unqualified” look and behave like other postsecondary entrants? That is the question
to answer to anticipate the demand they might exert on current student aid (Title IV) programs and
education and training (such as the Job Training Partnership Act) programs.

The latest analysis from the Defense Manpower Data Center estimates there to be 316,000 fewer
recruits over 5 years, an average of 63,200 individuals per year.'! Since 89 percent of the FY 1989
accessions were between 18 and 24 years of age, we can estimate that 56,000 of the “newly unqualified”

would be in that age range. Youths 18- and 19-years-of-age would comprise about 67 percent of the 89
percent.

The most recent description of the enlisted accessions makes it possible to review the significance of
the characteristics of the “newly unqualified” for postsecondary participation. Since the current student
assistance programs rely on family income as a major factor in allocation of resources, perhaps the most
important piece of information needed in estimating new demand is the socioeconomic level of prospec-
tive students. Two others are the aspirations (including educational preparation) and the aptitudes of the
prospective students. Finally, the racial and ethnic distribution of the “newly unqualified” is important to
assess because of national policy concerns about educational opportunity in postsecondary participation
and because of reseatch that shows race and socioeconomic level to be related in predicting chances for
college entry, retention, and completion.

The DoD report Population Representation in the Military Services, tracks the historical changes
within the services for the characteristics of income, aptituc e, aspirations, and race, arnong others. For
example, to assess the representation of socioeconomic sta‘ us among rectuits, scores for recruits on a
derived index of socioeconomic status—education, occupation, income, and employment status—were
compared with derived scores for a similar group of the population obtained from the Current Population
Surveys (CPS) of the Census. The results indicate that while the socioeconomic scores of recruits were
significantly different from the scores of the individuals in the CPS survey, the differences were not
large. The report concludes that the evidence does not support the historical contention that the enlisted
force is primarily representative of the lower socioeconomic strata of society.!?

Not only are recruits varied as to socioeconomic class, but also as to aptitude measured by scores on
the AFQT. The screening process and emphasis on the educational benefits accrued through service
ensures that current recruits have the aptitude and aspirations to participate in postsecondary education.
Ninety percent or more of each FY 1989 accession class, regardless of service, were high school gradu-
ates or had higher academic credentials. Distribution of scores on the AFQT for FY 1989 show that 69
percent scored in the upper half of the AFQT percentile range. (Low-scoring applicants are not allowed
to enlist.) Different combinations of educational preparation and aptitude (as measured by the AFQT
scores) were found for different racial and ethnic groups. Median AFQT scores of white recruits are
higher than those of blacks; however, on average, blacks have somewhat more education.'?

With regard to minority representation among the 18- to 24-year-old age group, FY 1989 accession
data indicate blacks are more likely to be represented among enlisted recruits compared with their
representation in the civilian population; whereas whites and Hispanics are underrepresented relative to
their peer group in the civilian population.

ps
“I
ct)

173



Thus, planning for the reconversion of economic activity began shortly after the start of the war.
Gearing up production and managing resource shortfalls was a serious enough problem in the first year
of the nation’s involvement to rule out any deliberate consideration of post-war reconversion or eco-
nomic adjustment policies. However, by the beginning of 1943 (roughly one-third into U.S. involvement
in the war) mobilization management agencies had begun to direct attention to the subject. Donald M.
Nelson, Chair of the War Production Board (WPB), was an early advocate of reconversion planning.

In the spring of 1943, he stated:

If we were to be caught, now or in the future, without plans for conversion from military
production to essential civilian production, in the event of a cessation of the war in Europe,
then I think we should get great condemnation. This kind of advance preparation can only be
done, in my opinion, by using the best brains in industry in this country to plan out how to
utilize and reconvert their facilities, according to the several stages of transition from all-out
war to ultimate peace. And in my opinion there should be a very well-defined plan for each
industry so that at no time, until the war is completely won, will there by any falling off from
maximum production.!?

The go-rnment’s first study of postwar reconversion was issued by WPB in June 1943."* It identified
critical . — -version issues such as contract termination procedures; reconversion loans to industry;
dispesi- £ Government-owned plants, machinery, and materials; and maintenance and application of
materials and production controls during the winding down of war production and demobilization. The
~rincipal planning issue concerned how to balance postwar economic priorities (full employment and

-ly resumption of civilian production) with the continuing need for maximum war production while
the conflict continued. During the last two years of the war, reconversion policy became one of the most
important and controversial political issues involving the federal government.'> At the war’s end, the
planning effort proved effective, and the economy absorbed 10 million returning servicemen with little
impact on the unemployment rate.

State and Jocal governments were also extremely active in planning for postwar economic growth.
Western states, which had seen major expansion of industry and population, were especially active in
local, state, and regional planning efforts for postwar expansion.'*

The transition for demobilized soldiers was also eased by the passage (in June 1944, more than a year
before the war’s end) of the GI Bill, which provided such services as job counseling, college education,
educational loans, and other educational assistance. The GI Bill set the stage for the wider availability of
college education, a “fact of life” that is often taken for granted today.

In summary, the smooth transition from war production to peacetime production appears to have
come about because of the fortuitous combination of:

+ High economic demand (due to the previous deferral of consumer goods production, high wartime
savings rate, and growth-oriented postwar economic policies);

* The ability of industry to return rapidly and smoothly to their prewar commercial endeavors (facili-
tated by government planning and actions to relax controls and make materials available); an4

* The smooth absorption of returning servicemen back into the workforce, in many cases filling
existing labor shortages or displacing people who had filled their jobs only temporarily.

Longer-tcrm economic growth was certainly facilitated by the increased opporiunities and aspirations
provided by the wartime experience, training, and benefits afforded to the new, predominantly civilian
workforce. As Perrett notes a lasting effect of the wartime and postwar expansion was to make the
United States, for the first time, a “middle class” country.

137 i 3 "



Conclusions

More than 300,000 youths who might otherwise have joined the military in the next 5 years are likely
to become unqualified if current plans for the drawdown are implemented. Most will come from stable
working class and lower-middie-class backgrounds, and almost half will be members of racial or ethnic
minorities. The South will feel the greatest impact of the cutbacks: close to half of the newly unqualified
will come from that region, and within the South almost two-thirds of the unqualified will be members
of racial or ethnic minorities.

These young people are not as bright as civilian youth in general, if aptitude as measured by the
AFOQT is any indication. Most are in the lower-middle ranges of tested aptitude. None is at the bottom of
the scale, because such youth have been excluded from the military for years. However, what the newly
unqualified lack in aptitude may be compensated for, at least partially, by their status as high school
graduates. For the most part, high school graduation is required for enlistment because graduates are
much more likely than nongraduates to complete their first term of service. The same persistence which
enables them to graduate from high school, despite some aptitude limitations, also carries them through
their term of service. It is also likely to be an important asset in the labor market and in job performance.

The youth who will become unqualified for service also have some deficits in broadly defined occu-
pational skills, as measured by ASVAB composites. In overall terms, they score less well than civilian
youth in administrative, general, and electronic aptitude. Males unqualified for service have about the
same mechanical scores as civilian males, and females unqualified for service have about the same
administrative scores as civilian females. Therefore, on average, the young men would be competitive
for mechanical jobs such as those in precision production and machine operation. They would also, of
course, be more competitive for jobs requiring lower skill levels, such as those in the “handlers, helpers,
and laborers” category. The young women, on average, are likely to be competitive for secretarial jobs,
as well as for those requiring lesser skills.

The relatively small number of women who will become unqualified for service seem to be in a better
labor market position than the men. The demand for skilled office workers is incre. :ing, while that for
“smokestack industry” skills is decreasing as the nation moves into the postindustrial age. The number
of old-style machine operators continues to decline as computerized robots replace them. Even auto
repair increasingly requires electronic and computer skills as well as mechanical ones.

It is unclear to what extent mathematics and electronics training would help the newly unqualified as
they enter the labor market. Such skills are clearly in demand, but the gains from training in these areas
will be limited to some extent by the aptitude deficits of the youths. If the federal and state governments
decide to replace the training these young men and women would have received in the military, they
should develop strategies for optimizing their training investments. Further research on military data
bases would be useful in this process. Employing methods similar to those described in this paper, it
would be possible to determine what kinds of training governments could usefully provide. Because the
distribution of occupations in the military is different from that in the civilian economy (there are few
manufacturing jobs, for example), the results of such analysis would have to be interpreted carefully, but
the process could provide information on the kinds of training that would benefit the newly unqualified.



In recognition of the special needs of servicemembers, supporting educational institutions assist them
in incorporating nontraditional instruction and study in the completion of a degree program. Often these
colleges recognize and accept independent study for credit. They advise and assist servicemembers to
make use of nontraditional or less formal study modes when formal course work needed for degree
completion is unavailable. In addition, many provide their own modes of nontraditional instruction or,
through listing in their publications, make students aware of acceptable forms of nontraditional instruc-
tion available through other sources. In demonstrating their understanding of and commitment to
servicemembers, supporting colleges and universities:

* Publicize widely to their faculty and students the nature of their commitment to programs and
activities offered on behalf of servicemembers;

* Provide effective administrative staffing and processes to give adequate support of programs for
servicemembers;

* Develop procedural directives for instructors,counselors, admissions officials, and program officers
governing special requirements of servicemembers;

+ Ensure the comparability of off-campus courses to those on-campus, while recognizing and accom-
modating programs to the particular needs of the adult learner;

¢ Designate a contact office or person for servicemembers;

* Designate a senior administrative official to oversee programs for servicemembers and veterans and
to monitor institutional compliance with memoranda of understanding and other agreements:

* Conduct staff orientation programs to prepare full-time and adjunct faculty to work with the adult
part-time learner;

* Provide scheduling on a planned program basis rather than by individual courses; and

¢ Ensure access to all courses needed for degree completion by scheduling at appropriate locations

and times, not necessarily related to the regular academic calandar. (Servicemembers Opportunity
Colleges 1990, 6-7)

For veterans returning to civilian life to begin or continue study, supporting colleges and universitics
provide appropriate evaluation of military training, experience, and prior study, and other services
similar to that afforded servicemembers. They encourage veterans to continue or complete study started
during service or interrupted by duty requirements,

While each institution operates autonomously, each must adhere to accreditation standards and
requirements of states in which it operates. It must comply with memoranda of understanding, contracts,
or other types of agreements to offer programs for the military. It must meet standards set by the Depart-
ment of Veterans Affairs and be approved in order for students to receive veterans’ educational benefits
payments, It must attempt to satisfy the needs of the military service as well as the student learners. A
masterful juggling act on the fart of an institution is required if it is to be successful.

Historically, the University of Maryland has taken a lead role in supporting the military services with
voluntary postsecondary education programs. With the growth of education programs in the post-World
War II period under the leadership of USAFI, a serious void arose from USAFI’s lack of direct accredit-
ing capability. This brought forth institutional involvement in Armed Forces education (Berry 1974, 59).
In the late 1940s, the University of Maryland established the College of Special and Continuation
Studies. Its first classes were conducted at the Pentagon. Today, the University of Maryland University
College continues to conduct programs throughout Europe and Asia, as well as at the Pentagon, and on
installations in the State of Maryland. Its catalog includes educational opportunities for U.S. military
and government personnel and their families as an important part of its “History and Scope.” Each year
the University College holds commencement ceremonies in College Park, Heidelberg and Tokyo
(University of Maryland University College 1990, 3).

62



Table 1.—Defense-related employment in occupations having 10 percent or more of all jobs
associated with defense expenditures

Defense Defense Jobs
. Related asa % of

Occupation Employment | Occupational

(in 000s) Employment
Acro-astronautic engineers 20,967 36.901
Electrical engineers 92,544 19.209
Industrial engineers 21,980 15.993
Mechanical engineers 40,034 14.811
Metallurgical engineers 3,388 16.333
All other engineers 58,727 18.893
All engineers 261,753 16.904
Physicists 4,561 23.596
Mathematicians & statisticians 5.157 10.913
All scientists 23,167 6.733
Electrical & electronic technicians 52,457 10.315
Mechanical engineering technicians 10,252 16.089
All engineering & science technicians 50,886 9.682
Computer systems analysts 39,627 9.695
All computer specialists 70,582 8.232
Airc.aft mechanics 35,522 30.421
Marit. mechanics and repairers 2,058 22.362
Machinists 35,397 9.870
Tool & die makers 19,220 13.665
Metalworking craft workers, nec 8,349 14,002
Inspectors & testers 75,172 10.742
Shipfitters 6,835, 53.435
All craft & related workers 701,614 5.882
Aircraft structure & surface assemblers 9.959 45.621
Electrical & electronic assemblers 78,330 17.845
Electro-mechanical equipment assemblers 9,225 15.213
Drill press & boring machine operators 6,904 11,325
Electroplaters 5,582 11.679
Grinding & abrading machine operators 9,394 10.531
Lathe machine operators 12,094 12.855
Machine tool operators, comb. 24,966 21.968
Machine tool oper., numerical control 9,767 15,837
Machine tool operators, tool room 18,425 10.341
Milling & planing machine operators 6,717 19.928
Power brake & bending machine operators 17 13.744
Winding operators, nec 5,444 15.082
All operatives 695,924 5.604

nec = not elsewhere classified
Source: Data Resources, Inc.

134

oe)


functional areas (e.g., personnel managers versus sales managers). In addition, differences were docu-
mented between levels and industry in the many cases where similarities between the private and public
sectors were indicated. These findings provide evidence that the competency differences between the
public and private sectors are not as difficult to overcome as they might at first appear.

The Role of Specialized Knowledge

At this point the reader may be feeling uneasy with the glaring omission of specialized knowledge or
a technical competency from the above discussion. In fact, specialized knowledge does play a role in
most models of effective performance in managerial and science and engineering occupations. However,
there are two consistent findings which support the exclusion of technical competencies as a primary
requirement or point of focus. First, among the vast majority of studies conducted using competency
assessment methods, superior performance was not related to possession of more facts and concepts than
was average performance. In fact, not one of the 41 studies conducted on management jobs found that
specialized or technical knowledge distinguished superior from average performance. It is possible that
this finding is partially due to the methodology of competency assessment, which contrasts superior with
average performers. On the other hand, this fact serves to make a point: technical competence is required
only to the extent that it is a threshold competency. In order to enter jobs in managerial and science and
engineering occupations, technical competence is required; once in the job, however, it no longer
distinguishes between performance levels. In some cases, it actually interferes with the ability to focus
on business objectives and relate to others in a non-technical manner.

The second point about specialized knowledge requirement is that when this is found as a compe-
tency, it usualy takes the form of a qualification to the general technical protile expected of an indi-
vidual in the given occupation. For example, for a group of engineers at a major manufacturing organi-
zation, when technical competence was demonstrated in the form of greater breadth or scope, as opposed
to in-depth specialized knowledge, it was related to superior performance. In a large private sector
research organization, con:munication of highly technical information in a way that was understandable
to non-experts in and outside of the organization was associated with superior performance. Technical
competence per se in these cases was considered necessary but insufficient as a qualification—a sort of
“union card” for meeting minimum qualifications.

Educational Implications for a Competency-Based
Management Qualification Process

The previous sections summarized the competeacies which are relevant to performance and effective-
ness in managerial jobs. These findings suggest a number of implications for maximizing competence in
managerial jobs and for transitioning managers across job level, sector, or industry.

An examination of the staff cutbacks occurring in the Department of Defense and the private sector
defense industries reveals some interesting trends. Decisions regarding the elimination of individuals
which are occurring as budgets for programs are reduced are rarely if ever based on competency, knowl-
edge, or performance. In private industry these decisions are frequently made according to which pro-
grams are maintained in the wake of budget cutbacks. Individuals who are immersed in those programs
are retained within the organization to reduce tne costs of bringing new people up to speed on the
program. The placement of these individuals onto these programs may have been the luck of the draw
more than anything else, such as performance or potential.

Several factors in the public sector have resulted in staff reductions being based primarily on length of
service in the organization or in the government. The public sector is particularly accountable for the
enforcement of equal opportunity employment laws and rules and to the expectations of the public
regarding the fair treatment of employce groups. In addition, agreements made with organized labor

118

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Step 2. Determine the Trainability of Needed Competencies

Competencies differ in the degree to which they are integrated into the stable and enduring make-up
of the individual who possesses them. Factors such as the time in life when the competency is acquired,
the degree of reinforcement it received, the possession of other competencies or characteristics, or the
degree to which a genetic component is involved with creating boundaries around an individua!’s ability
to possess the competency all contribute to a competency’s trainability.

Virtually all competencies can be enhanced through the processes discussed below. However, some
are easier to upgrade than others, and therefore the recommended metheds for addressing them must
vary with the competency’s trainability. Although some of the factors affecting trainability are depen-
dent on the particular individual involved, the average trainability for the competencies in the general
manager model which are demonstrated at lower skill levels by public sector managers are presented in
Table 5.

Table 5.—Competency trainability*

High Moderate Low
Efficiency Orientation Proactivity Pattern Recognition
Concern with Impact Managing Group Processes Conceptualization
Oral Presentations

* Includes competencies where skill level is higher in the private sector

High-trainability competencies are easier to train in most people because they require less relearning
and are less restricted by organic (i.e., genetic, biochemical) characteristics of the person, and lower
level training methods (discussed in greater detail in the next section) can be used for successful! training
in most cases. On the other end of the spectrum, low-trainability competcncies are difficult to train to a
substantial degree in most people and will require higher level training methods in addition to lower
level training methods.

Step 3. Identify the Needed Methods and Exercises for Training

Table 6 presents several general training methods which may be applied for competencies ranging
from high- to low-trainability.

120 .
12U



increment worth roughly 4.3 percent in earings, so that veterans benefits raise annual earnings by
approximately 6 percent. This is observable primarily for those who attend college or graduate school.

At the beginning of this investigation we listed a number of questions that needed to be answered.
The papers in this volume answer some questions fully, some partially, and some not at all. The lack of
studies to measure the effects of workplace-provided incremental education and training is a serious
obstacle to understanding education’s role in the workplace. Review of existing literature also indicates
that we have done very little thinking about how educational policy can be an effective tool in restruc-
turing workplaces. What we attempted to do with the conference was to examine an employer’s response
to changing times and needs. In this case, it was the military, a very large eraployer with integrated
training and education policies, serving a diverse population group who are expected to perform very
simple and extremely complex tasks. It is up to the reader to decide whether there are lessons from this

examination for other workplaces, and it is also up to the reader to determine how much modification is
appropriate to make this transition smooth.



Appendix ¢
NATIONAL CCCUPATIONAL COMPETENCY TESTING INSTITUTE

iP. EW INI MINATION
TEST CODE #021
WRITTEN TEST (174 Questions)
TIME: 3 Hours
PERCENT
QF TEST

2% ENERAL W! A ALIEICATION:
Per Section #8, ASME Boiler and Pressure Vessel Codes.

3% WELDING SYMB
Recognition, application.
2% JOINT DESIGN
Working knowledge of basic principles of joints, why a given design is used.
4% WELDIN AND CA\
Working knowiedge of possible defects, causes, and prevention.
5% TESTING
Tests commonly used in welding, use of test equipment.

3% ELECTRICITY
Use of various currents.

9% BASIC META! IRGY

Grain structure of metals, properties of metals, solders, and alloys, hardening
operations.

14%  OXYFUEL WELDING

Complete set-up, safety, use of torch on various metals, gas cutting, flux and
filler selection.

10%  BRAZING
Heating methods, brazing alloys, use of torch on various metals.

3% HARD SURFACING
Princ:oles of operation, types of wear, conditions, and preparation for hard

surfacing.
5% PR
Welding Principles of ultrasonic, electronic beam, thermit, solid state, and laser
welding.
16% HI Al N

Complete set-up, principles of operation, current, and rod selection, use of test
equipment, welds in the various positions.

(continued on other side)

95

Sv



skills with no civilian counterpart completion of military training can have a “credentialing” effect
(eTray 1980) and provide evidence of characteristics desirable to civilian employers.

Those leaving the armed services also earn education benefits under the GI Bill. These benefits
provide tuition and support for veterans attending colleges or certified training schools. Current benefits
range from $10,800 to $25,000, depending on the individual’s choice of service, skill, and length of
service. Approximately 85 percent of an enlisted personnel cohort leaves the service before reaching
retirement. Those who leave usually do so within the first 12 years of service, and these individuals are
the most likely candidates to utilize their educational benefits. In Fiscal Year 1989, the Department of
Veterans Affairs spent almost a billion dollars on GI Bill benefits (Digest 1989, 38).

Service members also can work toward degrees from civilian colleges while on active duty. This
education is supported by the military through tuition payments. In FY 1989, $144 million was provided
for this tuition assistance program (Digest 1989, 337).

The military drawdown may have two effects on educational benefits. The first is that fewer youth
will be flowing through the military and qualifying for educational benefits. The second is that the value
of educational benefits may decline, because recruiting for a smaller force will be easier, reducing the
need for incentive programs such as educational benefits. This prospect is most likely for the Army,
which now offers most of the educational benefits above $10,800 but is slated for the largest percentage
reductions and thus the greatest decrease in recruiting difficulties.

Purpose of This Paper

The military drawdown will affect the numbers of youths who are employed by the Armed Forces,
trained by the military, and eligible for educational benefits through military service. The magnitude of
these impacts will depend not only on the size of the reduction but also on how the armed services
achieve their reductions and on what kind of longer term force emerges. The purpose of this paper is to
anticipate the size of these likely effects under two drawdown options available to the armed services.

We will consider the three main effects:

* The change in the employment of youth;

* The change in the number of youths receiving military training; and

¢ The change in the number of youths leaving the military each year with educational benefits.

We will use the number of military personnel in their first 5 years of service as an indicator of youth
employment, and compare this to the 20 to 24-year-old labor force. We will use as a measure of those
trained the number of individuals in thei first year of military service. This is a better measure than the
number entering military service because approximately 10 percent leave before completing training. We

will use the number of losses between years of service 1 to 5 and 6 to 15 as indicators of potential users
of educational benefits,

In evaluating the impact of the military drawdown, three periods of time need to be considered.
The first is the baseline period, which we will assume is the 1980s. The second is the transition period,
which we will assume to be 1992-97. The third period is the longer-term steady-state period—from
approximately 2000 to 2010. Although the first and third periods are both characterized by stable force
size, the later force size will be approximately 25 percent smaller than the earlier force size. For each of
these steady-state environments, the number of accessions, the size of the military labor force, and the
number of losses remain relatively stable.

The transition period must be distinguished from the longer steady-state period because quite

different effects might become evident. During the transition, the effects are not simple trends between
the two steady states, and the precise course of these effects will depend primarily on size and pace of

38

>.
oo



tively stable over time. Course topics offered in the winter quarter of 1991 include Computer Skills (19
courses), Electrical Engineering (8), General Business (47), Materials (5), Manufacturing (1), Mathe-

matics (5), Mechanical (1), Reprographic Technology (3), Quality (3), Administrative Support (5), and
Personal Enrichment (1).

Critical Skills Training V (CST-V)

The Critical Skills Training Program was started because of a shift in demand for computer science
engineers which left a surplus in some other technical disciplines.’ This internal training delivery
system offers a new career path for technical engineers in the hardware/software engineering field.
Eligible Development and Manufacturing employees must usually hold a B.S. degree and pass a screen-
ing process before they can enroll. The screening process includes interviews with potential sponsoring
organizations (other divisions within Xerox), which are responsible for the candidate’s salary and tuition
costs during the program. Upon successful completion of this one-year program, held in cooperation
with the Rochester Institute of Technology, the trainee is placed within the sponsoring organization in an
entry-level position. This program allows employees to change career tracks, have their tuition and
salary expenses covered while they attend school full-time, and look forward to having appropriate jobs
open for them upon completion of the program. To date, approximately 75 Xerox employees have
completed this program.

Technician’s Opportunity Program (T.O.P.)

The Technician’s Opportunity Program (T.O.P.) is a Xerox training program developed in conjunc-
tion with Rochester Institute for Technology's engineering department.*° The program arose because an
employee involvement group identified the limited career growth available to technicians as a major
issue, Technicians can enhance their chances of moving up the career ladder by obtaining a Bachelor of
Science degree in Engineering. However, people who enrolled in courses after work often found that it
took 8 or more years to win a degree of potentially limited usefulness due to changes in technology and
that the availability of a position after the long training period could therefore be problematic. A task
force charged with addressing this issue designed T.O.P, a unique program through which technicians
can substantially upgrade their skills and receive a Bachelor of Science in Electrical Engineering,
Mechanical Engineering, or Computer Science. Xerox gives T.O.P. employees 8-hour work release each
week to attend day and extended-day courses. RIT and Xerox provide joint administration of the pro-
gram, and tuition is entirely covered by Xerox. Xerox job assignments satisfy RIT co-op credit require-
ments, and promotion is provided upon completion of the program. Instead of 8 or more years, the

program takes between 3 and 5 years to complete. In 1989, eight T.O.P. candidates graduated from
the program.

Second Career Opportunity Program (SCOP)

The Second Career Opportunity Program is a career development program aimed at Xerox employees
interested in retiring in the near future. It was meant to help Xerex employees adjust to their retirement,
both financially and psychologically. Xerox started a forum for employees that included small busi-
nesses, colleges and universities, and private consultants to provide information and contacts for a
second career and offer career guidance to help employees identify areas that match their skills and
interests with suitable jobs opportunities.

Tuition Reimbursement

Xerox offers to pay tuition costs for employees taking courses that are relevant to their work but not

offered through internal training programs. Upon approval from a supervisor, employees are able to
enroll in college and university courses.

162

16z



Lessons from the Past: Mitigating the Effects of
Military Cutbacks on Defense Workers

Lois Lembo and Judith Philipson

Introduction

The U.S. defense establishment is in a period of transition as it closes down one of the longest
peacetime military buildups in history. The reduction of tensions between the United States and the
Soviet Union and the blossoming of democracy in Eastern Europe have led to the significant reduction
of a threat that had sustained relatively high levels of peacetime defense spending and troop deployments
for nearly half a century. With a burgeoning budget deficit and a long-neglected list of other national
priorities, the nation has been quick to respond to the “outbreak of peace.” The steady growth of defense
spending experienced by this nation over the past decade ended in the second half of the 1980s, and
defense spending cutbacks—whatever course they ultimately may take—will ripple throughout all areas
of our economy.

Even Desert Shield operations are likely to have little mitigating impact on the economic adjustment.
First, a large percentage of the additional expenditures associated with Desert Shield will be for opera-
tional and consumption items (e.g., food and other support items, transportation costs, personnel ex-
pense, spare parts, and selected munitions). The long-term domestic economic impact of these expendi-
tures is likely to be minimal. Moreover, even to the extent that these expenditures do result in maintain-
ing force structure, research and development, procurement, and military installations at higher-than-
projected levels, these are likely to be of limited duration. These activities do net appear likely to pose a
long-term “threat” significant enough to reverse what is currently considered a long-term, continuing
decline in military spending.

Although the magnitude of any economic problems caused by the cutbacks may not be as severe as
originally envisioned, defense policy decisions wil] no doubt increase unemployment in many areas. At
a minimum, once the current crisis is over, the near-term impacts of reduced defense spending will
include the following:

* Reductions in the numbers of uniformed military personnel through early retirement and separation
as well as reduced recruitment. The U.S. Army estimates that it could cut 250,000 soldiers by the
mid-1990s; other estimates cite a total reduction of 400,000 military personnel.’ Most of these
individuals will enter the work force just as defense industries are downsizing to meet reduced
levels of demand and other segments of the economy are struggling against increased foreign
competition and a general economic slowdown

Closure and consolidation of some military bases, with corresponding reductions in the federal
civilian and support contractor workforce. Base closures have also been found to have “trickle

Note: Lois Lembo is manager of industry strategy and analysis at TASC, Arlington, Va. Judith Philipson is a market
analyst at TASC.

129

ca



OCCUP. EXAM
NECESSARY FOR
TATE OR TERRITORY CERTIFICATION? = UNIVERSITY GRANTING CREDIT AMOUNT OF CREDI-
Yes No
Indiana xX} Ball State University Not req'd for come
Indiana State University Not req'd fer corn:
Purdue University 32 Sem. Hours
lowa x lowa State University Up to 30 Sem. Hre
Kansas xWwW Pittsburg State University 24 Sem. Hours
Kentucky XW) Eastern Kentucky University 18 Sem. Hours
Morehead State University 18 Sem. Hours**
Murray State University 18 Sem. Hours**
Northern Kentucky University 18 Sem. Hours
University of Kentucky 18 Sem. Hours
University of Louisville 18 Sem. Hours
Western Kentucky University 18 Sem. Hours.
Louisiana x None at this time
Maine x University of Southern Maine 10 Sem. Hours
Maryland Xx Uses own tests
Massachusetts x Uses own tests
Michigan xX Central Michigan University 20 Sem. Hours
(1991) Eastern Michigan University 24-36 Sem. Hour:
Ferris State University 60 Qtr. Hours
Madonna Coilege 24 Sem. Hours
Michigan State University 45 Qtr. Hours
Northern Michigan University 24 Sem. Hours
Siena Heights College 30 Sem. Hours
Wayne State University 30 Sem. Hours
Wester Michigan University 20 Sem. Hours
Minnesota x University of Minnesota-Duluth Variable
Mississippi x Mississippi State University 24 Sem. Hours
University of Southern MS Not yet determine
Missouri x University of Missouri at Variable - Up to
Columbia 27 Sem. Hours
Montana x Northern Montana College Variable - Up to
59 Qtr. Hours
Nebraska x Chadron State College Variable
Kearney State College 40 Sem. Hours
University of Nebraska Variable
Wayne State College Variable
Nevada xX

University of Nevada at Reno 36 Sem. Hours

**for four-year degree only


This is one reason why the force reduction will likely involve large numbers of separations, A second
reason is that today’s force is probably the most senior force in history. The All Volunteer Force has
achieved historically high levels of retention since its beginning in 1973. This high retention has
gradually built up a force which has a high percentage of personnel with 10 or more years of service.
Reducing accessions during a drawdown with no corresponding cuts in. more senior personnel will
increase this seaiority even more. Too much seniority means slowed promotion for younger personnel
and mismatches between an individual’s skills and jobs.

Unfortunately, at the present time, separation of more senior personnel is problematical because of the
military retirement system. Vesting occurs for military retirement at 20 years of service, at which point
servicemembers receive a COLA adjusted lifetime annuity which equals 50 percent of their pay at 20
years. Separation prior to 20 years results in no retirement benefits. This vesting system has the effect
that an implicit contract exists between the service and military member of no involuntary separation
after about 14 years of service. Thus, although senior separations might be desirable, they cannot be
achieved unless current separation payment policies are changed. Work is currently underway to design
a career separation payment for use during drawdown which would treat senior personnel equitably if
separated. If such a package were available during the drawdown, involuntary separations would likely
occur among personnel with between 1 and 18 years of service.

Two Specific Drawdown Strategies

We will attempt to bound the range of effects by choosing two drawdown strategies for our esti-
mation. They are called junior and senior drawdown. Junior drawdown allows involuntary separations
primarily among those with less than 10 years of service. The second allows separation of those with
between 2 and 18 years of service. In both scenarios, accession levels are set during the drawdown at 95
percent of that required to sustain the smaller force size. These two scenarios capture the current uncer-
tainty in how the force will be reduced.

Figure 1.—Comparison of current enlisted separation pay to value of lost retirement annuity

VO
160
140
120

‘Value’ of lost
retirement annuity

Thousands
of FY 1990 1
dollars

Separation pay

12 3 4 85 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Years of service

if.
qt