National                                                                   
     Agricultural                                                               
     Statistics                                                                 
     Service                                                                    
                                                                                
USDA                                                                            
Washington, D.C.                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
Released December 15, 1997, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service     
(NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture.  For     
information on "Milk Production" call James Hand at 202-690-3236, office hours  
7:00 a.m. to 4:30 p.m. ET.                                                      
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
            November Milk Production Up 1.3 Percent                             
                                                                                
Milk production in the 20 major States during November totaled 10.6 billion     
pounds, up 1.3 percent from production in these same States in November 1996.   
October revised production, at 11.0 billion pounds was up 1.4 percent from      
October 1996.                                                                   
                                                                                
                                                                                
Production per cow in the 20 major States averaged 1,377 pounds for November,   
27  pounds above November 1996.                                                 
                                                                                
                                                                                
The number of cows on farms in the 20 major States was 7.72 million head,       
51,000 head less than November 1996 and 7,000 head less than October 1997.      
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
          Milk Cows and Production:  By Quarter, United States, 1996-97         
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          :   Milk Cows 1/    :  Milk Per Cow 2/  :     Milk Production 2/      
          :---------------------------------------------------------------------
  Quarter :         :         :         :         :         :         : Change  
          :  1996   :  1997   :  1996   :  1997   :  1996   :  1997   :  From   
          :         :         :         :         :         :         :  1996   
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          :  ---- 1,000 ----    ---- Pounds ----     Million Pounds     Percent 
          :                                                                     
Jan-Mar   :  9,397     9,267     4,156     4,200     39,053   38,922     -0.3   
Apr-Jun   :  9,369     9,254     4,231     4,393     39,638   40,648      2.5   
Jul-Sep   :  9,338     9,245     4,035     4,209     37,674   38,917      3.3   
Oct-Dec   :  9,300               4,083               37,966                     
          :                                                                     
Annual    :  9,351              16,505              154,331                     
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/  Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh.                          
2/  Excludes milk sucked by calves.                                             
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
        Milk Cows and Production:  By Month, 20 Selected States, 1996-97        
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          :   Milk Cows 1/    :  Milk Per Cow 2/  :     Milk Production 2/      
          :---------------------------------------------------------------------
   Month  :         :         :         :         :         :         : Change  
          :  1996   :  1997   :  1996   :  1997   :  1996   :  1997   :  From   
          :         :         :         :         :         :         :  1996   
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          :  ---- 1,000 ----    ---- Pounds ----     Million Pounds     Percent 
          :                                                                     
Jan       :  7,846     7,757     1,415     1,439     11,103   11,163      0.5   
Feb       :  7,828     7,743     1,348     1,331     10,549   10,309     -2.3   
Mar       :  7,822     7,736     1,469     1,501     11,487   11,611      1.1   
Apr       :  7,818     7,731     1,441     1,481     11,265   11,452      1.7   
May       :  7,816     7,733     1,479     1,532     11,560   11,847      2.5   
Jun       :  7,818     7,738     1,398     1,475     10,926   11,410      4.4   
Jul       :  7,815     7,747     1,400     1,477     10,944   11,443      4.6   
Aug       :  7,802     7,744     1,382     1,450     10,786   11,227      4.1   
Sep       :  7,795     7,736     1,342     1,381     10,459   10,686      2.2   
Oct       :  7,788     7,731     1,391     1,421     10,831   10,986      1.4   
Nov       :  7,775     7,724     1,350     1,377     10,499   10,638      1.3   
Dec       :  7,765               1,418               11,013                     
          :                                                                     
Annual    :  7,807              16,833              131,422                     
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/  Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh.                          
2/  Excludes milk sucked by calves.                                             
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
               Estimated Milk Production:  United States, 1996-97               
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
            :             By Month             :           Cumulative           
            :-------------------------------------------------------------------
    Month   :         :           :   Change   :         :         :   Change   
            :  1996   :   1997    :    From    :  1996   :  1997   :    From    
            :         :           :    1996    :         :         :    1996    
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
            :   Million Pounds       Percent       Million Pounds     Percent   
            :                                                                   
Jan         : 13,085     13,133         0.4       13,085    13,133       0.4    
Feb         : 12,431     12,129        -2.4       25,516    25,262      -1.0    
Mar         : 13,537     13,660         0.9       39,053    38,922      -0.3    
Apr         : 13,230     13,411         1.4       52,283    52,333       0.1    
May         : 13,576     13,874         2.2       65,859    66,207       0.5    
Jun         : 12,832     13,363         4.1       78,691    79,570       1.1    
Jul         : 12,809     13,346         4.2       91,500    92,916       1.5    
Aug         : 12,624     13,095         3.7      104,124   106,011       1.8    
Sep         : 12,241     12,471         1.9      116,365   118,482       1.8    
Oct         : 12,714     12,896         1.4      129,079   131,378       1.8    
Nov         : 12,324     12,487         1.3      141,403   143,865       1.7    
Dec         : 12,928                             154,331                        
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
              Milk Cows and Production:  By State, November 1996-97             
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          :   Milk Cows 1/    :  Milk Per Cow 2/  :     Milk Production 2/      
          :---------------------------------------------------------------------
   Month  :         :         :         :         :         :         : Change  
          :  1996   :  1997   :  1996   :  1997   :  1996   :  1997   :  From   
          :         :         :         :         :         :         :  1996   
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          :  ---- 1,000 ----     ---- Pounds ---     Million Pounds     Percent 
          :                                                                     
AZ        :    122       126     1,690     1,645       206       207      0.5   
CA        :  1,269     1,320     1,700     1,730     2,157     2,284      5.9   
FL        :    157       159     1,230     1,195       193       190     -1.6   
ID        :    266       279     1,510     1,540       402       430      7.0   
IL        :    151       145     1,220     1,250       184       181     -1.6   
IN        :    140       140     1,240     1,250       174       175      0.6   
IA        :    250       244     1,260     1,340       315       327      3.8   
KY        :    151       142       980       980       148       139     -6.1   
MI        :    314       300     1,370     1,410       430       423     -1.6   
MN        :    595       575     1,250     1,240       744       713     -4.2   
MO        :    175       167     1,045     1,070       183       179     -2.2   
NM        :    195       205     1,565     1,610       305       330      8.2   
NY        :    700       699     1,270     1,300       889       909      2.2   
OH        :    285       274     1,200     1,260       342       345      0.9   
PA        :    642       640     1,310     1,350       841       864      2.7   
TX        :    395       387     1,205     1,155       476       447     -6.1   
VT        :    155       156     1,310     1,315       203       205      1.0   
VA        :    126       120     1,170     1,260       147       151      2.7   
WA        :    266       260     1,600     1,590       426       413     -3.1   
WI        :  1,421     1,386     1,220     1,245     1,734     1,726     -0.5   
          :                                                                     
20-State  :                                                                     
 Total    :  7,775     7,724     1,350     1,377    10,499    10,638      1.3   
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/  Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh.                          
2/  Excludes milk sucked by calves.                                             
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
             Milk Cows and Production:  By State, October 1996-97 1/            
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          :   Milk Cows 2/    :  Milk per Cow 3/  :     Milk Production 3/      
          :---------------------------------------------------------------------
   State  :         :         :         :         :         :         : Change  
          :  1996   :  1997   :  1996   :  1997   :  1996   :  1997   :  From   
          :         :         :         :         :         :         :  1996   
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          :  ---- 1,000 ----     ---- Pounds ---     Million Pounds     Percent 
          :                                                                     
AZ        :    122       126     1,620     1,595       198       201      1.5   
CA        :  1,268     1,314     1,750     1,790     2,219     2,352      6.0   
FL        :    156       159     1,160     1,105       181       176     -2.8   
ID        :    265       279     1,580     1,610       419       449      7.2   
IL        :    152       146     1,230     1,280       187       187      0.0   
IN        :    140       140     1,280     1,310       179       183      2.2   
IA        :    250       244     1,280     1,370       320       334      4.4   
KY        :    151       143     1,020     1,000       154       143     -7.1   
MI        :    317       303     1,415     1,460       449       442     -1.6   
MN        :    595       575     1,275     1,275       759       733     -3.4   
MO        :    175       169     1,105     1,075       193       182     -5.7   
NM        :    195       205     1,570     1,640       306       336      9.8   
NY        :    702       699     1,325     1,350       930       944      1.5   
OH        :    285       275     1,250     1,290       356       355     -0.3   
PA        :    645       640     1,345     1,395       868       893      2.9   
TX        :    395       387     1,185     1,135       468       439     -6.2   
VT        :    155       157     1,375     1,370       213       215      0.9   
VA        :    126       120     1,200     1,280       151       154      2.0   
WA        :    266       262     1,675     1,665       446       436     -2.2   
WI        :  1,428     1,388     1,285     1,320     1,835     1,832     -0.2   
          :                                                                     
20-State  :                                                                     
 Total    :  7,788     7,731     1,391     1,421    10,831    10,986      1.4   
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/  1997 revised.                                                               
2/  Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh.                          
3/  Excludes milk sucked by calves.                                             
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                       Reliability Statement                                    
                                                                                
Survey Procedures:  Primary data used to determine these estimates were         
obtained from a sample of producers.  Individual States maintain a list of all  
known milk producers and information on the size of their herd.  States use all 
known sources of producers to ensure that their lists are as complete as        
possible. Generally, all large producers and a sample of small producers are    
included in the survey.  Questionnaires are mailed to producers near the end of 
the month to obtain data for the first day of the month.  Additional reports    
are obtained by telephone, as needed, to supplement the mail response.          
                                                                                
                                                                                
Estimation Procedures:  State offices prepare these estimates using survey      
indications, historic trends, and any available administrative data. Individual 
State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board for           
reasonableness.                                                                 
                                                                                
                                                                                
Revision Policy:  Milk production, rate per cow, and number of cows are subject 
to revision the following month for monthly States or the following quarter for 
the quarterly States.  Normally, Federal Market Order sales are the main basis  
for revisions. However, data for all orders are not available in time for this  
revision.  Estimates are again subject to revisions in February each year based 
on additional administrative data.  In the event that additional changes are    
necessary, a third revision is possible in February the following year.         
Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five-year Census of            
Agriculture are available. No revisions are made after that date.               
                                                                                
                                                                                
Reliability:  Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in the   
sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results    
are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and    
mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these 
errors cannot be measured directly.  They are minimized through rigid quality   
controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all     
reported data for consistency and reasonableness.                               
                                                                                
                                                                                
To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report,  
the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items on the next page. The  
"Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and 
is computed using the differences between first and final estimates.  The "Root 
Mean Square Error" for milk cow inventory estimates over the past 10 quarters   
is 1.3 percent.  This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final          
July-September estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 9.25 
million head by more than 1.3 percent, or about 120,000 head.  Chances are 9    
out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 2.3 percent, or about 213,000     
head (the 90 percent confidence level).                                         
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                Reliability of July-September  Milk Estimates 1/                
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             :        :      90%       :   Difference Between   :               
             :        :   Confidence   :    First and Final     :   Number of   
             :  Root  :     Level      :      Estimates 1/      :   Quarters    
     Item    :  Mean  :---------------------------------------------------------
             : Square :       :        :       :        :       : First : First 
             : Error  :Percent:Estimate:Average:Smallest:Largest: Above : Below 
             :        :       :        :       :        :       : Final : Final 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             :     Percent       ------- Million Pounds ------       Number     
             :                                                                  
Milk         :                                                                  
  Production :  0.7      1.4     546      255     139      456     10       0   
             :     Percent       --------- 1,000 Head --------       Number     
             :                                                                  
All Milk     :                                                                  
  Cows       :  1.3      2.3     213      109       7      179     10       0   
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/  Based on records for the past 10 July-September quarters.                   
                                                                                
                                                                                
The next "Milk Production" report will be released at 3 p.m. ET on January 15,  
1998.                                                                           
                                                                                
                                                                                
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