14-i 

CHAPTER 14. UTILITY IMPACT ANALYSIS

TABLE OF CONTENTS

14.1 INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................ 14-1

14.2 METHODOLOGY ........................................................................................................... 14-1

14.3 RESULTS ......................................................................................................................... 14-2

REFERENCES .......................................................................................................................... 14-7

LIST OF TABLES

Table 14.3.1 Reference Case Forecast: Electricity Consumption, Electricity Generation, 

and Electricity Capacity ..................................................................................... 14-3

Table 14.3.2 Utility Impacts for Emerging Technologies Roll Scenario from TSL 1............... 14-3

Table 14.3.3 Utility Impacts for Emerging Technologies Roll Scenario from TSL 2............... 14-4

Table 14.3.4 Utility Impacts for Emerging Technologies Roll Scenario from TSL 3............... 14-4

Table 14.3.5 Utility Impacts for Existing Technologies Shift Scenario from TSL 1 ................ 14-5

Table 14.3.6 Utility Impacts for Existing Technologies Shift Scenario from TSL 2 ................ 14-5

Table 14.3.7 Utility Impacts for Existing Technologies Shift Scenario from TSL 3 ................ 14-6
14-1 

CHAPTER 14. UTILITY IMPACT ANALYSIS

14.1 INTRODUCTION

The utility impact analysis estimates the change in the forecasted power generation 

capacity of the nation that would be expected to result from the adoption of amended efficacy 

efficiency standards. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) used a version of the Energy 

Information Administration’s (EIA’s) National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) for this 

analysis. NEMS, which is publicly available, is a large, multi-sectoral, partial equilibrium model 

of the U.S. energy sector. EIA uses NEMS to produce its Annual Energy Outlook (AEO),1 a 

widely recognized baseline energy forecast for the United States. The version of NEMS used for 

appliance standards analysis is called NEMS-Building Technologies (NEMS-BT) and is based 

on AEO2010 with minor modifications. The NEMS-BT offers a sophisticated picture of the 

effect of standards, since it accounts for the interactions between the various energy supply and 

demand sectors and the economy as a whole. 

The utility impact analysis reports the changes in installed capacity and generation, by 

fuel type, that result from the adoption of amended efficacy standards at each trial standard level 

(TSL), as well as changes in electricity consumption.

14.2 METHODOLOGY

To estimate the effects of the proposed standards on the electric utility industry, DOE 

used NEMS-BT to provide key inputs to the analysis. EIA approves the use of the name NEMS 

only to describe an official version of the model with no modifications to the modeling code or 

data. Because this analysis entails some minor code modifications and the model is run under 

multiple policy scenarios that are variations on EIA assumptions, DOE refers to it as NEMS-BT. 

For fluorescent lamp ballasts, the analysis consisted of forecasted differences between the 

base and standards cases for electricity generation, installed capacity, and electricity sales. The 

NEMS-BT model provides reference case load shapes for several end uses, including lighting 

applications. 

For electrical end uses, NEMS-BT uses predicted growth in demand for each end use to 

project the total electric system load growth for each region, which in turn predicts the necessary 

additions to electrical generation capacity. NEMS-BT also accounts for the implementation of 

energy conservation standards by decrementing the appropriate reference case load shape. DOE 

determines the size of the decrement the same way it calculates national energy savings except 

that it uses site energy without converting it into source energy. 

The use of NEMS-BT for the utility impact analysis offers several advantages. As the 

official DOE energy forecasting model, NEMS-BT relies on a set of transparent assumptions that 

have received wide exposure and commentary. NEMS-BT allows an estimate of the interactions 

between the various energy supply and demand sectors and the economy as a whole. 
14-2 

DOE conducted the utility impact analysis as a variant of the AEO2010, applying the 

same basic set of assumptions. For example, the utility analysis uses the operating characteristics 

(e.g., energy conversion efficacy, emissions rates) of future electricity generating plants. 

The model uses predicted growth in demand for each end use to project total electric 

system load growth for each region, which in turn is used to predict necessary additions to 

electrical generation capacity. 

The terminal year of the NEMS-BT model is 2035, impacts beyond which are typically 

extrapolated. As with the AEO reference case in general, the implicit premise is that the 

regulatory environment does not deviate from the current known situation during the 

extrapolation period. Only changes that have been announced with date-certain introduction are 

included in NEMS-BT.

14.3 RESULTS

Results of the utility impact analysis include changes in electricity sales, installed 

capacity, and generation for each TSL in 5-year forecasted increments extrapolated to 2043. 

DOE provides result for two boundary scenarios: (1) existing technologies shift and (2) and 

emerging technologies roll. Results are for all TSLs presented in 5-year increments to year 2035 

for the reference case. Beyond 2035, an extrapolation to 2043 for each proposed TSL is 

represented by a simple replication of the year 2035 results.

 

The results for the reference case are shown in Table 14.3.1. A separate set of TSLs are 

modeled for both the existing technologies shift and the emerging technologies roll scenarios as 

the high and low range estimates, respectively. For additional discussion of the formulation of 

these scenarios, see NOPR TSD chapter 10. 

 

The NEMS-BT results, including the difference from the reference case results, are 

presented in Table 14.3.2 through Table 14.3.7. These tables also present the results across the 

two scenarios. 

Amended fluorescent lamp ballast efficacy standards result in decreases to electricity 

consumption for all TSLs compared to the reference case under both scenarios. Power generation 

capacity is affected to a greater extent due to the larger decreases to electricity consumption 

associated with their adoption. Power generation capacity is reduced by between 1.5 GW (for 

TSL 1 under the emerging technologies roll scenario) and 7.2 GW (for TSL 3 under the existing 

technologies shift scenario). 
14-3 

Table 14.3.1 Reference Case Forecast: Electricity Consumption, Electricity Generation, 

and Electricity Capacity

NEMS-BT Results 2005* 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Total Electricity Consumption**

Electricity Sales (TWh) 3,660 3,617 3,870 4,083 4,274 4,475 4,660

Total U.S. Electricity Generation§

Coal (TWh) 2,013 1,828 2,039 2,095 2,147 2,215 2,304

Petroleum (TWh) 122 122 122 122 122 122 122

Gas (TWh) 765 765 765 765 765 765 765

Nuclear (TWh) 782 782 782 782 782 782 782

Renewables (TWh) 369 369 369 369 369 369 369

 Total (TWh) 4,052 3,866 4,078 4,133 4,185 4,253 4,343

Installed Generating Capacity

Fossil Steam (GW)§§ 431 432 411 407 407 410 415

Combined Cycle (GW) 170 197 201 201 209 234 244

Combustion Turbines (GW) 130 138 133 136 148 156 175

Nuclear (GW) 100 102 105 111 111 111 113

Renewables (GW) 115 146 176 177 179 182 191

 Total (GW) 946 1,015 1,026 1,032 1,054 1,093 1,138

*

Values for 2005 are reported by NEMS-BT, but are very close to the historical values shown in various tables in AEO2010. **Comparable to Table A8 of AEO2010, Electricity Supply, Disposition, Prices, and Emissions. Includes generation from 

electricity-only, combined heat and power, and end-use generators. §

Comparable to Table A9 of AEO2010, Electricity Generating Capacity. §§Includes coal steam and other fossil fuel steam plants.

Table 14.3.2 Utility Impacts for Emerging Technologies Roll Scenario from TSL 1 

NEMS-BT Results Difference from Reference Case

Extrapolation

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2043

Total Electricity Consumption

Electricity Sales (TWh) -0.91 -2.81 -4.14 -4.90 -5.11 -5.11 -5.11

Total U.S. Electricity Generation

Coal (TWh) -0.31 -0.78 -0.85 -0.49 0.28 0.28 0.28

Petroleum (TWh) -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01

Gas (TWh) -0.14 -0.55 -1.01 -1.54 -2.14 -2.14 -2.14

Nuclear (TWh) 0.06 0.12 0.03 -0.20 -0.58 -0.58 -0.58

Renewables (TWh) -0.55 -1.69 -2.47 -2.90 -2.98 -2.98 -2.98

 Total (TWh) -0.95 -2.91 -4.31 -5.14 -5.40 -5.40 -5.40

Installed Generating Capacity

Fossil Steam (GW) -0.02 -0.06 -0.07 -0.04 0.02 0.02 0.02

Combined Cycle (GW) -0.04 -0.15 -0.28 -0.41 -0.53 -0.53 -0.53

Combustion Turbines (GW) -0.14 -0.40 -0.50 -0.45 -0.25 -0.25 -0.25

Nuclear (GW) 0.01 0.02 0.00 -0.03 -0.08 -0.08 -0.08

Renewables (GW) -0.16 -0.46 -0.65 -0.72 -0.68 -0.68 -0.68

 Total (GW) -0.36 -1.06 -1.49 -1.64 -1.51 -1.51 -1.51
14-4 

Table 14.3.3 Utility Impacts for Emerging Technologies Roll Scenario from TSL 2

NEMS-BT Results Difference from Reference Case

Extrapolation

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2043

Total Electricity Consumption

Electricity Sales (TWh) -1.81 -5.55 -8.19 -9.71 -10.11 -10.11 -10.11

Total U.S. Electricity Generation

Coal (TWh) -0.61 -1.55 -1.67 -0.97 0.56 0.56 0.56

Petroleum (TWh) -0.01 -0.03 -0.03 -0.01 0.02 0.02 0.02

Gas (TWh) -0.28 -1.08 -2.01 -3.06 -4.24 -4.24 -4.24

Nuclear (TWh) 0.12 0.23 0.05 -0.40 -1.14 -1.14 -1.14

Renewables (TWh) -1.09 -3.34 -4.89 -5.74 -5.89 -5.89 -5.89

 Total (TWh) -1.87 -5.77 -8.54 -10.18 -10.69 -10.69 -10.69

Installed Generating Capacity

Fossil Steam (GW) -0.05 -0.12 -0.13 -0.08 0.04 0.04 0.04

Combined Cycle (GW) -0.08 -0.31 -0.55 -0.80 -1.04 -1.04 -1.04

Combustion Turbines (GW) -0.28 -0.79 -0.99 -0.88 -0.49 -0.49 -0.49

Nuclear (GW) 0.02 0.03 0.01 -0.05 -0.16 -0.16 -0.16

Renewables (GW) -0.31 -0.91 -1.28 -1.42 -1.35 -1.35 -1.35

 Total (GW) -0.71 -2.10 -2.94 -3.24 -2.99 -2.99 -2.99

Table 14.3.4 Utility Impacts for Emerging Technologies Roll Scenario from TSL 3

NEMS-BT Results Difference from Reference Case

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Extrapolation

2040 2043

Total Electricity 

Consumption 

Electricity Sales (TWh) -2.64 -8.12 -11.97 -14.19 -14.78 -14.78 -14.78

Total U.S. Electricity 

Generation

Coal (TWh) -0.89 -2.27 -2.45 -1.42 0.81 0.81 0.81

Petroleum (TWh) -0.02 -0.04 -0.04 -0.02 0.03 0.03 0.03

Gas (TWh) -0.41 -1.58 -2.93 -4.47 -6.20 -6.20 -6.20

Nuclear (TWh) 0.18 0.33 0.08 -0.59 -1.66 -1.66 -1.66

Renewables (TWh) -1.60 -4.88 -7.14 -8.38 -8.61 -8.61 -8.61

 Total (TWh) -2.74 -8.43 -12.48 -14.88 -15.62 -15.62 -15.62

Installed Generating 

Capacity 

Fossil Steam (GW) -0.07 -0.18 -0.19 -0.11 0.07 0.07 0.07

Combined Cycle (GW) -0.12 -0.45 -0.80 -1.17 -1.52 -1.52 -1.52

Combustion Turbines (GW) -0.42 -1.15 -1.44 -1.29 -0.71 -0.71 -0.71

Nuclear (GW) 0.02 0.04 0.01 -0.08 -0.23 -0.23 -0.23

Renewables (GW) -0.45 -1.33 -1.88 -2.08 -1.97 -1.97 -1.97

 Total (GW) -1.04 -3.07 -4.30 -4.73 -4.37 -4.37 -4.37
14-5 

Table 14.3.5 Utility Impacts for Existing Technologies Shift Scenario from TSL 1 

NEMS-BT Results Difference from Reference Case

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Extrapolation

2040 2043

Total Electricity Consumption

Electricity Sales (TWh) -1.65 -5.51 -9.03 -12.19 -15.00 -15.00 -15.00

Total U.S. Electricity 

Generation

Coal (TWh) -0.65 -1.78 -2.18 -1.87 -0.84 -0.84 -0.84

Petroleum (TWh) 0.00 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01

Gas (TWh) 0.48 0.67 -0.59 -3.30 -7.45 -7.45 -7.45

Nuclear (TWh) 0.09 0.17 0.05 -0.28 -0.81 -0.81 -0.81

Renewables (TWh) -1.65 -4.83 -6.70 -7.23 -6.45 -6.45 -6.45

 Total (TWh) -1.73 -5.78 -9.43 -12.69 -15.56 -15.56 -15.56

Installed Generating Capacity

Fossil Steam (GW) -0.07 -0.20 -0.25 -0.22 -0.13 -0.13 -0.13

Combined Cycle (GW) -0.06 -0.31 -0.70 -1.22 -1.74 -1.74 -1.74

Combustion Turbines (GW) -0.28 -0.78 -0.98 -0.89 -0.53 -0.53 -0.53

Nuclear (GW) 0.01 0.02 0.01 -0.04 -0.12 -0.12 -0.12

Renewables (GW) -0.45 -1.32 -1.79 -1.87 -1.66 -1.66 -1.66

 Total (GW) -0.86 -2.58 -3.71 -4.24 -4.17 -4.17 -4.17

Table 14.3.6 Utility Impacts for Existing Technologies Shift Scenario from TSL 2 

NEMS-BT Results

 

Difference from Reference Case

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Extrapolation

2040 2043

Total Electricity Consumption

Electricity Sales (TWh) -2.05 -6.86 -11.24 -15.18 -18.68 -18.68 -18.68

Total U.S. Electricity 

Generation

Coal (TWh) -0.81 -2.21 -2.72 -2.33 -1.05 -1.05 -1.05

Petroleum (TWh) 0.00 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01

Gas (TWh) 0.60 0.83 -0.73 -4.11 -9.28 -9.28 -9.28

Nuclear (TWh) 0.11 0.21 0.06 -0.35 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00

Renewables (TWh) -2.05 -6.02 -8.34 -9.01 -8.03 -8.03 -8.03

 Total (TWh) -2.15 -7.20 -11.75 -15.81 -19.38 -19.38 -19.38

Installed Generating Capacity

Fossil Steam (GW) -0.09 -0.25 -0.31 -0.28 -0.16 -0.16 -0.16

Combined Cycle (GW) -0.08 -0.39 -0.87 -1.52 -2.16 -2.16 -2.16

Combustion Turbines (GW) -0.35 -0.97 -1.22 -1.10 -0.66 -0.66 -0.66

Nuclear (GW) 0.02 0.03 0.01 -0.05 -0.15 -0.15 -0.15

Renewables (GW) -0.57 -1.64 -2.23 -2.33 -2.06 -2.06 -2.06

 Total (GW) -1.07 -3.22 -4.62 -5.28 -5.20 -5.20 -5.20
14-6 

Table 14.3.7 Utility Impacts for Existing Technologies Shift Scenario from TSL 3 

NEMS-BT Results Difference from Reference Case

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Extrapolation

2040 2043

Total Electricity Consumption

Electricity Sales (TWh) -2.85 -9.54 -15.62 -21.09 -25.95 -25.95 -25.95

Total U.S. Electricity 

Generation 

Coal (TWh) -1.13 -3.07 -3.78 -3.24 -1.46 -1.46 -1.46

Petroleum (TWh) 0.00 -0.01 -0.02 -0.02 -0.02 -0.02 -0.02

Gas (TWh) 0.83 1.16 -1.02 -5.71 -12.90 -12.90 -12.90

Nuclear (TWh) 0.15 0.29 0.08 -0.48 -1.40 -1.40 -1.40

Renewables (TWh) -2.85 -8.36 -11.59 -12.52 -11.16 -11.16 -11.16

 Total (TWh) -2.99 -10.00 -16.32 -21.97 -26.93 -26.93 -26.93

Installed Generating Capacity

Fossil Steam (GW) -0.12 -0.34 -0.43 -0.39 -0.23 -0.23 -0.23

Combined Cycle (GW) -0.11 -0.54 -1.21 -2.12 -3.01 -3.01 -3.01

Combustion Turbines (GW) -0.49 -1.35 -1.70 -1.53 -0.91 -0.91 -0.91

Nuclear (GW) 0.02 0.04 0.01 -0.07 -0.20 -0.20 -0.20

Renewables (GW) -0.79 -2.28 -3.10 -3.24 -2.87 -2.87 -2.87

 Total (GW) -1.48 -4.47 -6.42 -7.34 -7.22 -7.22 -7.22
14-7 

REFERENCES

1. U.S. Department of Energy–Energy Information Administration. Annual Energy Outlook 

2010. 2010. (Last accessed February 27, 2011.) 

<www.eia.gov/oiaf/archive/aeo10/index.html>