HDR1012000160030516951500MILK PRODUCTION                                        
HDR2012000160030516951500MILK PRODUCTION HIGHLIGHTS                             
Released May 16, 1995, by the Agricultural Statistics Board.                    
                                                                                
                      April Milk Production Up 2 Percent                        
                                                                                
Milk production in the 22 major States during April totaled 11.5 billion pounds,
2 percent above production in these same States in April 1994.  March revised   
production, at 11.7 billion pounds, was 3 percent more than March 1994.         
                                                                                
Production per cow in the 22 major States averaged 1,423 pounds for             
April, 27 pounds above April 1994.                                              
                                                                                
The number of cows on farms in the 22 major States was 8.10 million head,       
19,000 head more than April 1994 but 4,000 head less than March 1995.           
                                                                                
During the January-March period, the 22 major States produced 33.4 billion      
pounds of milk, 85.8 percent of the U.S. production. If the remaining 28 States 
not surveyed monthly followed the same pattern as the 22 States, the U.S.       
production would be 13.4 billion pounds for April 1995.                         
                                                                                
                                     *******                                    
                                                                                
                                     Notice                                     
                                                                                
Monthly estimates are published for New Mexico beginning with the February 1995 
issue.  To facilitate year to year comparisons, monthly estimates for both 1994 
and 1995 include New Mexico.                                                    
                                                                                
For information call Kevin Hintzman at (202) 720-4448.  Office hours are        
8:00 a.m. to 4:30 p.m. ET.                                                      
                                                                                
Da 1-1 (5-95)                                                                   
HDR2012000160030516951500MILK COWS & PRODUCTION BY QTR, US 94-95                
         Milk Cows and Production:  By Quarter, United States,  1994-95         
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
        :    Milk Cows  1/   :  Milk per Cow  2/ :     Milk Production 2/       
        :---------------------------------------------------------------------- 
Quarter :          :         :         :         :         :         : 1995 as  
        :  1994    :  1995   :  1994   :  1995   :  1994   :  1995   :   % of   
        :          :         :         :         :         :         :   1994   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
        :    ---- 1,000 ----         Pounds          Million Pounds    Percent  
        :                                                                       
Jan-Mar :    9,506     9,516     3,951     4,095    37,560    38,971       104  
Apr-Jun :    9,530               4,188              39,916                      
Jul-Sep :    9,539               4,007              38,217                      
Oct-Dec :    9,524               3,983              37,933                      
        :                                                                       
Annual  :    9,525              16,129             153,626                      
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
1/  Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh.                          
2/  Excludes milk sucked by calves.                                             
                                                                                
HDR2012000160030516951500MILK COWS & PRODUCTION BY MO, 22 SELEC. STS 94-95      
        Milk Cows and Production:  By Month, 22 Selected States, 1994-95        
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
        :    Milk Cows  1/   :  Milk per Cow  2/ :     Milk Production 2/       
        :---------------------------------------------------------------------- 
 Month  :          :         :         :         :         :         : 1995 as  
        :  1994    :  1995   :  1994   :  1995   :  1994   :  1995   :   % of   
        :          :         :         :         :         :         :   1994   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
        :    ---- 1,000 ----         Pounds          Million Pounds    Percent  
        :                                                                       
Jan     :    8,092     8,090     1,343     1,394    10,870    11,280       104  
Feb     :    8,082     8,088     1,236     1,291     9,990    10,441       105  
Mar     :    8,074     8,103     1,401     1,444    11,315    11,698       103  
Apr     :    8,080     8,099     1,396     1,423    11,282    11,525       102  
May     :    8,097               1,457              11,799                      
Jun     :    8,107               1,388              11,249                      
Jul     :    8,104               1,389              11,260                      
Aug     :    8,108               1,369              11,102                      
Sep     :    8,109               1,318              10,689                      
Oct     :    8,104               1,354              10,970                      
Nov     :    8,098               1,312              10,624                      
Dec     :    8,094               1,370              11,090                      
        :                                                                       
Annual  :    8,096              16,334             132,240                      
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
1/  Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh.                          
2/  Excludes milk sucked by calves.                                             
HDR2012000160030516951500MILK COWS & PRODUCTION BY ST, APRIL 94-95              
            Milk Cows and Production:  By State,  April 1994-95                 
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
        :    Milk Cows  1/   :  Milk per Cow  2/ :     Milk Production 2/       
        :---------------------------------------------------------------------- 
 State  :          :         :         :         :         :         : 1995 as  
        :  1994    :  1995   :  1994   :  1995   :  1994   :  1995   :   % of   
        :          :         :         :         :         :         :   1994   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
        :    ---- 1,000 ----         Pounds          Million Pounds    Percent  
        :                                                                       
CA      :    1,228     1,254     1,705     1,685     2,094     2,113       101  
FL      :      178       166     1,425     1,390       254       231        91  
ID      :      201       225     1,480     1,470       297       331       111  
IL      :      165       163     1,340     1,370       221       223       101  
IN      :      145       144     1,330     1,320       193       190        98  
IA      :      263       262     1,220     1,300       321       341       106  
KY      :      171       163     1,030     1,120       176       183       104  
MD      :       92        93     1,250     1,270       115       118       103  
MI      :      328       326     1,415     1,440       464       469       101  
MN      :      610       595     1,330     1,365       811       812       100  
MO      :      198       198     1,260     1,305       249       258       104  
NM      :      158       185     1,772     1,685       280       312       111  
NY      :      724       705     1,360     1,410       985       994       101  
NC      :       91        88     1,450     1,480       132       130        98  
OH      :      297       288     1,305     1,360       388       392       101  
PA      :      635       639     1,360     1,420       864       907       105  
TN      :      159       157     1,080     1,110       172       174       101  
TX      :      402       400     1,470     1,400       591       560        95  
VT      :      158       156     1,330     1,365       210       213       101  
VA      :      130       129     1,275     1,325       166       171       103  
WA      :      260       265     1,665     1,665       433       441       102  
WI      :    1,487     1,498     1,255     1,310     1,866     1,962       105  
        :                                                                       
22 State:                                                                       
 Total  :    8,080     8,099     1,396     1,423    11,282    11,525       102  
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
1/  Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh.                          
2/  Excludes milk sucked by calves.                                             
HDR2012000160030516951500MILK COWS & PRODUCTION BY ST, MARCH 94-95              
             Milk Cows and Production:  By State,  March 1994-95 1/             
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
        :    Milk Cows  2/   :  Milk per Cow  3/ :     Milk Production 3/       
        :---------------------------------------------------------------------- 
 State  :          :         :         :         :         :         : 1995 as  
        :  1994    :  1995     1994    :  1995     1994    :  1995   :   % of   
        :          :         :         :         :         :         :   1994   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
        :    ---- 1,000 ----         Pounds          Million Pounds    Percent  
        :                                                                       
CA      :    1,226     1,254     1,710     1,705     2,096     2,138       102  
FL      :      178       166     1,485     1,435       264       238        90  
ID      :      199       223     1,460     1,510       291       337       116  
IL      :      165       163     1,340     1,380       221       225       102  
IN      :      144       145     1,350     1,340       194       194       100  
IA      :      263       262     1,240     1,320       326       346       106  
KY      :      171       163     1,005     1,105       172       180       105  
MD      :       93        93     1,215     1,290       113       120       106  
MI      :      329       326     1,430     1,510       470       492       105  
MN      :      615       600     1,340     1,395       824       837       102  
MO      :      196       195     1,210     1,275       237       249       105  
NM      :      157       185     1,758     1,705       276       315       114  
NY      :      725       707     1,365     1,415       990     1,000       101  
NC      :       91        88     1,475     1,510       134       133        99  
OH      :      297       289     1,300     1,375       386       397       103  
PA      :      637       641     1,380     1,440       879       923       105  
TN      :      158       157     1,050     1,100       166       173       104  
TX      :      401       400     1,480     1,450       593       580        98  
VT      :      159       156     1,335     1,390       212       217       102  
VA      :      130       129     1,290     1,355       168       175       104  
WA      :      257       263     1,690     1,720       434       452       104  
WI      :    1,483     1,498     1,260     1,320     1,869     1,977       106  
        :                                                                       
22 State:                                                                       
 Total  :    8,074     8,103     1,401     1,444    11,315    11,698       103  
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
1/  1995 revised.  2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh.        
3/  Excludes milk sucked by calves.                                             
                                                                                
HDR2012000160030516951500RELIABILITY STATEMENT                                  
Survey Procedures:  Primary data used to determine these estimates were         
                    obtained from a sample of producers. Individual States      
maintain a list of all known milk producers and information on the size of      
their herd.  States use all known sources of producers to ensure that their     
lists are as complete as possible.   Generally, all large producers and a       
sample of small producers are included in the survey.  Questionnaires are mailed
to producers near the end of the month to obtain data for the first             
day of the month.  Additional reports are obtained by telephone, as needed,     
to supplement the mail response.                                                
                                                                                
Estimation Procedures:   State offices prepare these estimates using survey     
                         indications, historic trends, and any available        
administrative data.  Individual State estimates are reviewed by the            
Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness.                               
                                                                                
Revision Policy:  Milk production, rate per cow, and number of cows are         
                  subject to revision the following month for monthly States or 
the following quarter for the quarterly States.  Normally, Federal Market Order 
sales are the main basis for revisions. However, data for all orders are not    
available in time for this revision.  Estimates are again subject to revisions  
in February each year based on additional administrative data.  In the event    
that additional changes are necessary, a third revision is possible in February 
the following year.  Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five-year 
Census of Agriculture, conducted by the Department of Commerce, are available.  
No revisions are made after that date.                                          
                                                                                
Reliability:  Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in       
              the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling              
variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as     
omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and              
processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured             
directly.  They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data        
collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for        
consistency and reasonableness.                                                 
                                                                                
To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this          
report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the         
table below. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on     
past performance and is computed using the differences between first and        
final estimates.  The "Root Mean Square Error" for milk cow inventory           
estimates over the past 10 quarters is 1.1 percent.  This means that            
chances are 2 out of 3 that the final January-March estimate will not be above  
or below the current estimate of 9.52 million head by more than 1.1 percent, or 
about 105,000 head.  Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed
2.0 percent, or about 190,000 head (the 90 percent confidence level).           
HDR2012000160030516951500RELIABILITY TABLE                                      
                Reliability of January-March Milk Estimates 1/                  
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
             :        :              :    Difference Between    :               
             :        :              :      First and Final     :    Number of  
             :  Root  :     90%      :         Estimates  1/    :    Quarters   
    Item     :  Mean  :  Confidence  :----------------------------------------- 
             : Square :    Level     :        :         :       : First : First 
             :  Error :              : Average: Smallest:Largest: Above : Below 
             :        :              :        :         :       : Final : Final 
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
             :   - Percent -     ---------- Mil Lbs. ----------     - Number -  
             :                                                                  
Milk         :    0.5    1.0     391       163        7      315     8       2  
  Production :                                                                  
             :                  --------- 1,000 Head ----------                 
             :                                                                  
All Milk     :    1.1    2.0     190        96        5      187    10       0  
  Cows       :                                                                  
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/  Based on records for the past 10 January-March quarters.                    
The next "Milk Production" report will be released at 3 p.m. ET on              
June 15, 1995.                                                                  
                                                                                
                                                                                
                             ***********************                            
                                                                                
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