Da 1-1 (5-99)

Milk

Production

National

Agricultural

Statistics

Service

USDA

Washington, D.C.

Released May 17, 1999, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of

Agriculture. For information on "Milk Production" call James Hand at 202-690-3236, office hours 7:00 a.m. to 4:30 p.m. ET.

April Milk Production Up 3.4 Percent 

Milk production in the 20 major States during April totaled 12.0 billion pounds, up 3.4 percent from

production in these same States in April 1998. March revised production, at 12.2 billion pounds was up

4.6 percent from March 1998.

Production per cow in the 20 major States averaged 1,553 pounds for April, 52 pounds above April

1998.

The number of cows on farms in the 20 major States was 7.71 million head, 1,000 head less than April

1998, but 4,000 head more than March 1999.
Milk Production Agricultural Statistics Board

May 1999 2 NASS, USDA

Milk Cows and Production: By Quarter, United States, 1998-99 1

Quarter

Milk Cows 2 Milk Per Cow 3 Milk Production 3

1998 1999 1998 1999 1998 1999

Change

From

1998

1,000 Head 1,000 Head Pounds Pounds Million Pounds Million Pounds Percent

Jan-Mar

Apr-Jun

Jul-Sep

Oct-Dec

Annual

9,176

9,171

9,149

9,137

9,158

9,136 4,268

4,451

4,210

4,261

17,192

4,436 39,164

40,821

38,519

38,937

157,441

40,526 3.5

1 May not add due to rounding. 2 Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3 Excludes milk sucked by calves.

Milk Cows and Production: By Month, 20 Selected States, 1998-99

Month

Milk Cows 1 Milk Per Cow 2 Milk Production 2

1998 1999 1998 1999 1998 1999

Change

From

1998

1,000 Head 1,000 Head Pounds Pounds Million Pounds Million Pounds Percent

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Annual

7,728

7,716

7,709

7,713

7,719

7,718

7,709

7,708

7,701

7,695

7,697

7,708

7,710

7,704

7,702

7,708

7,712

1,466

1,347

1,515

1,501

1,556

1,477

1,468

1,443

1,386

1,446

1,407

1,489

17,501

1,521

1,403

1,584

1,553

11,327

10,394

11,678

11,579

12,011

11,396

11,314

11,124

10,672

11,125

10,829

11,481

134,930

11,720

10,809

12,212

11,977

3.5

4.0

4.6

3.4

1 Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2 Excludes milk sucked by calves.

Estimated Milk Production: United States, 1998-99

Month

By Month Cumulative

1998 1999

Change

From

1998

1998 1999

Change

From

1998

Million Pounds Million Pounds Percent Million Pounds Million Pounds Percent

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

13,282

12,188

13,694

13,510

14,015

13,296

13,162

12,942

12,415

12,956

12,611

13,370

13,671

12,609

14,246

13,974

2.9

3.5

4.0

3.4

13,282

25,470

39,164

52,674

66,689

79,985

93,147

106,089

118,504

131,460

144,071

157,441

13,671

26,280

40,526

54,500

2.9

3.2

3.5

3.5
Milk Production Agricultural Statistics Board

May 1999 3 NASS, USDA

Milk Cows and Production: By State, April 1998-99

Month

Milk Cows 1 Milk Per Cow 2 Milk Production 2

1998 1999 1998 1999 1998 1999

Change

From

1998

1,000 Head 1,000 Head Pounds Pounds Million Pounds Million Pounds Percent

AZ

CA

FL

ID

IL

IN

IA

KY

MI

MN

MO

NM

NY

OH

PA

TX

VT

VA

WA

WI

20-State

 Total

130

1,410

162

288

129

136

223

141

298

555

173

216

700

265

624

359

162

125

249

1,368

7,713

132

1,456

160

310

124

136

215

134

294

545

161

231

700

260

615

342

162

122

248

1,365

7,712

1,885

1,640

1,375

1,620

1,490

1,410

1,465

1,135

1,495

1,435

1,305

1,720

1,420

1,470

1,530

1,490

1,405

1,320

1,790

1,395

1,501

2,070

1,770

1,480

1,630

1,430

1,340

1,500

1,090

1,540

1,495

1,305

1,740

1,450

1,420

1,545

1,545

1,445

1,305

1,865

1,435

1,553

245

2,312

223

467

192

192

327

160

446

796

226

372

994

390

955

535

228

165

446

1,908

11,579

273

2,577

237

505

177

182

323

146

453

815

210

402

1,015

369

950

528

234

159

463

1,959

11,977

11.4

11.5

6.3

8.1

-7.8

-5.2

-1.2

-8.8

1.6

2.4

-7.1

8.1

2.1

-5.4

-0.5

-1.3

2.6

-3.6

3.8

2.7

3.4 1 Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2 Excludes milk sucked by calves.
Milk Production Agricultural Statistics Board

May 1999 4 NASS, USDA

Milk Cows and Production: By State, March 1998-99 1

State

Milk Cows 2 Milk per Cow 3 Milk Production 3

1998 1999 1998 1999 1998 1999

Change

From

1998

1,000 Head 1,000 Head Pounds Pounds Million Pounds Million Pounds Percent

AZ

CA

FL

ID

IL

IN

IA

KY

MI

MN

MO

NM

NY

OH

PA

TX

VT

VA

WA

WI

20-State

 Total

130

1,408

162

283

129

134

224

141

297

555

174

216

697

265

624

362

161

125

249

1,373

7,709

132

1,452

159

307

125

136

215

134

295

545

162

231

700

260

614

342

162

122

249

1,366

7,708

1,885

1,665

1,415

1,660

1,510

1,430

1,472

1,105

1,530

1,465

1,240

1,705

1,440

1,460

1,535

1,475

1,430

1,345

1,805

1,410

1,515

2,135

1,795

1,520

1,650

1,480

1,330

1,540

1,090

1,575

1,555

1,320

1,770

1,490

1,460

1,565

1,625

1,465

1,335

1,885

1,455

1,584

245

2,344

229

470

195

192

330

156

454

813

216

368

1,004

387

958

534

230

168

449

1,936

11,678

282

2,606

242

507

185

181

331

146

465

847

214

409

1,043

380

961

556

237

163

469

1,988

12,212

15.1

11.2

5.7

7.9

-5.1

-5.7

0.3

-6.4

2.4

4.2

-0.9

11.1

3.9

-1.8

0.3

4.1

3.0

-3.0

4.5

2.7

4.6 1 1999 revised. 2 Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3 Excludes milk sucked by calves.
Milk Production Agricultural Statistics Board

May 1999 5 NASS, USDA

Reliability Statement

Survey Procedures: Primary data used to determine these estimates were obtained from a sample of producers. 

Individual States maintain a list of all known milk producers and information on the size of their herd. States use

all known sources of producers to ensure that their lists are as complete as possible. Generally, all large producers

and a sample of small producers are included in the survey. Questionnaires are mailed to producers near the end

of the month to obtain data for the first day of the month. Additional reports are obtained by telephone, as

needed, to supplement the mail response.

Estimation Procedures: State offices prepare these estimates using survey indications, historic trends, and any

available administrative data. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board for

reasonableness.

Revision Policy: Milk production, rate per cow, and number of cows are subject to revision the following month

for monthly States or the following quarter for the quarterly States. Normally, Federal Market Order sales are the

main basis for revisions. However, data for all orders are not available in time for this revision. Estimates are

again subject to revisions in February each year based on additional administrative data. In the event that

additional changes are necessary, a third revision is possible in February the following year. Estimates are again

reviewed after data from the five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions are made after that date.

Reliability: Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to

sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and

mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. 

They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of

all reported data for consistency and reasonableness.

To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown

for selected items on the next page. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past

performance and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square

Error" for milk cow inventory estimates over the past 10 quarters is 1.1 percent. This means that chances are 2

out of 3 that the final January-March estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 9.14 million head

by more than 1.1 percent, or about 100,000 head. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 2.0

percent, or about 183,000 head (the 90 percent confidence level).
Milk Production Agricultural Statistics Board

May 1999 6 NASS, USDA

Reliability of January-March Milk Estimates 1

Item

Root

Mean

Square

Error

90%

Confidence

Level

Difference Between

First and Latest

Estimates

Quarters

First

Above

Latest

First

Below

Average Smallest Largest Latest

Percent Percent Million Pounds Million Pounds Million Pounds Million Pounds Number Number

Milk

 Production 0.5 0.9 365 170 47 315 8 2

Percent Percent 1,000 Head 1,000 Head 1,000 Head 1,000 Head Number Number

All Milk

 Cows 1.1 2.0 183 89 2 187 8 2

1 Based on records for the past 10 January-March quarters.
The next "Milk Production" report will be released at 3 p.m. ET on June 15, 1999.

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