HDR1012000160030814961500MILK PRODUCTION                                        
Milk                                                                            
Production                                                                      
                                                                                
National                                                                        
Agricultural                                                                    
Statistics                                                                      
Service                                                                         
                                                                                
United States                                                                   
Department of                                                                   
Agriculture                                                                     
                                                                                
Washington, D.C.                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
Released August 14, 1996, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service       
(NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture.  For     
information on "Milk Production" call Kevin Hintzman at (202) 720-4448, office  
hours 8:00 a.m. to 4:30 p.m. ET.  For assistance with general agricultural      
statistics, information about NASS, its products or services, contact the NASS  
Information Hotline at 1-800-727-9540 or E-mail: NASS@NASS.USDA.GOV.  The       
"Milk Production" U.S. Summary is available on AutoFax, (202) 720-2000,         
report 5200.  See page 7.                                                       
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                    July Milk Production Down 3 Percent                         
                                                                                
                                                                                
Milk production in the 22 major States during July totaled 11.1 billion pounds, 
3 percent below production in these same States in July 1995. June revised      
production, at 11.1 billion pounds was 3 percent less than June 1995. On a daily
basis, milk production has been below 1995 levels every month this year. In     
July, five States are down more than 10 percent from 1995.                      
                                                                                
                                                                                
Production per cow in the 22 major States averaged 1,390 pounds for July,       
24 pounds below July 1995.  This is the third month in a row that the rate has  
decreased when compared to a year ago.                                          
                                                                                
                                                                                
The number of cows on farms in the 22 major States was 7.98 million head,       
86,000 head less than July 1995 and 8,000 head less than June 1996.  This is the
eleventh consecutive month of decline.                                          
                                                                                
                                                                                
During the April-June period, the 22 major States produced 34.3 billion         
pounds of milk, 86.2 percent of the U.S. production.  If the remaining 28 States
not surveyed monthly followed the same pattern as the 22 States, the U.S.       
production would be 12.9 billion pounds for July 1996.                          
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
Da 1-1 (8-96)                                                                   
                                                                                
                                                                                
         Milk Cows and Production:  By Quarter, United States,  1995-96         
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
        :    Milk Cows  1/   :  Milk per Cow  2/ :     Milk Production 2/       
        :---------------------------------------------------------------------- 
Quarter :          :         :         :         :         :         : 1996 as  
        :   1995   :  1996   :  1995   :  1996   :  1995   :  1996   :   % of   
        :          :         :         :         :         :         :   1995   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
        :    ---- 1,000 ----         Pounds          Million Pounds    Percent  
        :                                                                       
Jan-Mar :    9,470     9,402     4,112     4,160    38,941    39,111       100  
Apr-Jun :    9,477     9,379     4,276     4,238    40,520    39,751        98  
Jul-Sep :    9,465               4,049              38,325                      
Oct-Dec :    9,432               4,014              37,857                      
        :                                                                       
Annual  :    9,461              16,451             155,644                      
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
1/  Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh.                          
2/  Excludes milk sucked by calves.                                             
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
        Milk Cows and Production:  By Month, 22 Selected States, 1995-96        
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
        :    Milk Cows  1/   :  Milk per Cow  2/ :     Milk Production 2/       
        :---------------------------------------------------------------------- 
 Month  :          :         :         :         :         :         : 1996 as  
        :   1995   :  1996   :  1995   :  1996   :  1995   :  1996   :   % of   
        :          :         :         :         :         :         :   1995   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
        :    ---- 1,000 ----         Pounds          Million Pounds    Percent  
        :                                                                       
Jan     :    8,046     8,026     1,404     1,406    11,296    11,285       100  
Feb     :    8,050     8,010     1,295     1,338    10,423    10,719       103  
Mar     :    8,061     7,998     1,453     1,459    11,709    11,671       100  
Apr     :    8,058     7,988     1,427     1,434    11,501    11,451       100  
May     :    8,056     7,987     1,484     1,470    11,959    11,740        98  
Jun     :    8,066     7,984     1,421     1,387    11,465    11,075        97  
Jul     :    8,062     7,976     1,414     1,390    11,397    11,083        97  
Aug     :    8,062               1,375              11,086                      
Sep     :    8,061               1,331              10,729                      
Oct     :    8,050               1,364              10,978                      
Nov     :    8,043               1,320              10,616                      
Dec     :    8,034               1,380              11,088                      
        :                                                                       
Annual  :    8,054              16,668             134,247                      
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
1/  Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh.                          
2/  Excludes milk sucked by calves.                                             
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
               Milk Cows and Production:  By State,  July 1995-96               
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
        :    Milk Cows  1/   :  Milk per Cow  2/ :     Milk Production 2/       
        :---------------------------------------------------------------------- 
 State  :          :         :         :         :         :         : 1996 as  
        :   1995   :  1996   :  1995   :  1996   :  1995   :  1996   :   % of   
        :          :         :         :         :         :         :   1995   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
        :    ---- 1,000 ----         Pounds          Million Pounds    Percent  
        :                                                                       
CA      :    1,254     1,262     1,740     1,725     2,182     2,177       100  
FL      :      162       156     1,135     1,180       184       184       100  
ID      :      234       255     1,590     1,630       372       416       112  
IL      :      162       159     1,330     1,320       215       210        98  
IN      :      144       140     1,300     1,270       187       178        95  
IA      :      251       250     1,365     1,290       343       323        94  
KY      :      163       151     1,035       965       169       146        86  
MD      :       92        86     1,150     1,255       106       108       102  
MI      :      326       327     1,475     1,410       481       461        96  
MN      :      600       600     1,325     1,325       795       795       100  
MO      :      189       177     1,130       990       214       175        82  
NM      :      198       196     1,585     1,640       314       321       102  
NY      :      700       703     1,415     1,370       991       963        97  
NC      :       86        82     1,325     1,245       114       102        89  
OH      :      289       285     1,340     1,295       387       369        95  
PA      :      640       643     1,375     1,375       880       884       100  
TN      :      124       114     1,110     1,070       138       122        88  
TX      :      402       399     1,190     1,140       478       455        95  
VT      :      158       157     1,360     1,350       215       212        99  
VA      :      129       126     1,210     1,065       156       134        86  
WA      :      269       263     1,725     1,730       464       455        98  
WI      :    1,490     1,445     1,350     1,310     2,012     1,893        94  
        :                                                                       
22 State:                                                                       
 Total  :    8,062     7,976     1,414     1,390    11,397    11,083        97  
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
1/  Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh.                          
2/  Excludes milk sucked by calves.                                             
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
              Milk Cows and Production:  By State,  June 1995-96 1/             
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
        :    Milk Cows  2/   :  Milk per Cow  3/ :     Milk Production 3/       
        :---------------------------------------------------------------------- 
 State  :          :         :         :         :         :         : 1996 as  
        :   1995   :  1996   :  1995   :  1996   :  1995   :  1996   :   % of   
        :          :         :         :         :         :         :   1995   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
        :    ---- 1,000 ----         Pounds          Million Pounds    Percent  
        :                                                                       
CA      :    1,254     1,262     1,695     1,690     2,126     2,133       100  
FL      :      162       156     1,220     1,235       198       193        97  
ID      :      232       253     1,530     1,570       355       397       112  
IL      :      163       160     1,340     1,330       218       213        98  
IN      :      144       140     1,290     1,300       186       182        98  
IA      :      251       249     1,365     1,285       343       320        93  
KY      :      163       153     1,060       940       173       144        83  
MD      :       93        87     1,195     1,220       111       106        95  
MI      :      326       326     1,465     1,405       478       458        96  
MN      :      600       600     1,370     1,335       822       801        97  
MO      :      191       180     1,200     1,040       229       187        82  
NM      :      196       194     1,585     1,630       311       316       102  
NY      :      702       704     1,430     1,380     1,004       972        97  
NC      :       86        83     1,365     1,260       117       105        90  
OH      :      289       285     1,370     1,300       396       371        94  
PA      :      639       643     1,400     1,360       895       874        98  
TN      :      127       114     1,150     1,070       146       122        84  
TX      :      402       400     1,255     1,230       505       492        97  
VT      :      157       157     1,375     1,350       216       212        98  
VA      :      129       126     1,240     1,095       160       138        86  
WA      :      268       262     1,695     1,705       454       447        98  
WI      :    1,492     1,450     1,355     1,305     2,022     1,892        94  
        :                                                                       
22 State:                                                                       
 Total  :    8,066     7,984     1,421     1,387    11,465    11,075        97  
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
1/  1996 revised.  2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh.        
3/  Excludes milk sucked by calves.                                             
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                      Reliability Statement                                     
                                                                                
                                                                                
Survey Procedures:  Primary data used to determine these estimates were         
                    obtained from a sample of producers. Individual States      
maintain a list of all known milk producers and information on the size of      
their herd.  States use all known sources of producers to ensure that their     
lists are as complete as possible.   Generally, all large producers and a       
sample of small producers are included in the survey.  Questionnaires are mailed
to producers near the end of the month to obtain data for the first             
day of the month.  Additional reports are obtained by telephone, as needed,     
to supplement the mail response.                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
Estimation Procedures:   State offices prepare these estimates using survey     
                         indications, historic trends, and any available        
administrative data.  Individual State estimates are reviewed by the            
Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness.                               
                                                                                
                                                                                
Revision Policy:  Milk production, rate per cow, and number of cows are         
                  subject to revision the following month for monthly States or 
the following quarter for the quarterly States.  Normally, Federal Market Order 
sales are the main basis for revisions. However, data for all orders are not    
available in time for this revision.  Estimates are again subject to revisions  
in February each year based on additional administrative data.  In the event    
that additional changes are necessary, a third revision is possible in February 
the following year.  Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five-year 
Census of Agriculture, conducted by the Department of Commerce, are available.  
No revisions are made after that date.                                          
                                                                                
                                                                                
Reliability:  Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in       
              the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. 
Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions,       
duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The
effects of these errors cannot be measured directly.  They are minimized through
rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful     
review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness.                 
                                                                                
To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report,  
the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the table below.    
The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance 
and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates.        
The "Root Mean Square Error" for milk cow inventory estimates over the past     
10 quarters is 1.2 percent.  This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the    
final April-June estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of    
9.38 million head by more than 1.2 percent, or about 113,000 head.  Chances are 
9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 2.1 percent, or about           
197,000 head (the 90 percent confidence level).                                 
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                 Reliability of April-June Milk Estimates 1/                    
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
             :        :              :    Difference Between    :               
             :        :              :      First and Final     :    Number of  
             :  Root  :     90%      :         Estimates  1/    :    Quarters   
    Item     :  Mean  :  Confidence  :------------------------------------------
             : Square :    Level     :        :         :       : First : First 
             :  Error :              : Average: Smallest:Largest: Above : Below 
             :        :              :        :         :       : Final : Final 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             :   - Percent -     ---------- Mil Lbs. ----------     - Number -  
             :                                                                  
Milk         :    0.6    1.1     438       191       32      426     8       2  
  Production :                                                                  
             :                  --------- 1,000 Head ----------                 
                                                                                
             :                                                                  
All Milk     :    1.2    2.1     197       100       12      188    10       0  
  Cows       :                                                                  
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/  Based on records for the past 10 April-June quarters.                       
                                                                                
                                                                                
The next "Milk Production" report will be released at 3:00 p.m. ET on           
September 13, 1996.                                                             
                                                                                
                                                                                
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