Da 1-1 (4-99)

Milk

Production

National

Agricultural

Statistics

Service

USDA

Washington, D.C.

Released April 15, 1999, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of

Agriculture. For information on "Milk Production" call James Hand at 202-690-3236, office hours 7:00 a.m. to 4:30 p.m. ET.

March Milk Production Up 4.0 Percent 

Milk production in the 20 major States during March totaled 12.1 billion pounds, up

4.0 percent from production in these same States in March 1998. February revised

production, at 10.8 billion pounds was up 4.0 percent from February 1998.

Production per cow in the 20 major States averaged 1,577 pounds for March, 62 pounds above

March 1998.

The number of cows on farms in the 20 major States was 7.70 million head, 5,000 head less

than March 1998, but 2,000 head more than February 1999. 

January-March Milk Production Up 3.3 Percent

The quarterly production of milk for the U.S. was 40.5 billion pounds, 3.3 percent above the

January-March period last year. The average number of milk cows in the U.S. during the

January-March quarter was 9.13 million head, 42,000 head less than the same period last year.
Milk Production Agricultural Statistics Board

April 1999 2 NASS, USDA

Milk Cows and Production: By Quarter, United States, 1998-99 1

Quarter

Milk Cows 2 Milk Per Cow 3 Milk Production 3

1998 1999 1998 1999 1998 1999

Change

From

1998

1,000 Head 1,000 Head Pounds Pounds Million Pounds Million Pounds Percent

Jan-Mar

Apr-Jun

Jul-Sep

Oct-Dec

Annual

9,176

9,171

9,149

9,137

9,158

9,134 4,268

4,451

4,210

4,261

17,192

4,431 39,164

40,821

38,519

38,937

157,441

40,471 3.3

1 May not add due to rounding. 2 Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3 Excludes milk sucked by calves.

Milk Cows and Production: By Month, 20 Selected States, 1998-99

Month

Milk Cows 1 Milk Per Cow 2 Milk Production 2

1998 1999 1998 1999 1998 1999

Change

From

1998

1,000 Head 1,000 Head Pounds Pounds Million Pounds Million Pounds Percent

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Annual

7,728

7,716

7,709

7,713

7,719

7,718

7,709

7,708

7,701

7,695

7,697

7,708

7,710

7,704

7,702

7,704

1,466

1,347

1,515

1,501

1,556

1,477

1,468

1,443

1,386

1,446

1,407

1,489

17,501

1,521

1,403

1,577

11,327

10,394

11,678

11,579

12,011

11,396

11,314

11,124

10,672

11,125

10,829

11,481

134,930

11,720

10,809

12,147

3.5

4.0

4.0

1 Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2 Excludes milk sucked by calves.

Estimated Milk Production: United States, 1998-99

Month

By Month Cumulative

1998 1999

Change

From

1998

1998 1999

Change

From

1998

Million Pounds Million Pounds Percent Million Pounds Million Pounds Percent

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

13,282

12,188

13,694

13,510

14,015

13,296

13,162

12,942

12,415

12,956

12,611

13,370

13,679

12,616

14,176

3.0

3.5

3.5

13,282

25,470

39,164

52,674

66,689

79,985

93,147

106,089

118,504

131,460

144,071

157,441

13,679

26,295

40,471

3.0

3.2

3.3
Milk Production Agricultural Statistics Board

April 1999 3 NASS, USDA

Milk Cows and Production: By State, March 1998-99

Month

Milk Cows 1 Milk Per Cow 2 Milk Production 2

1998 1999 1998 1999 1998 1999

Change

From

1998

1,000 Head 1,000 Head Pounds Pounds Million Pounds Million Pounds Percent

AZ

CA

FL

ID

IL

IN

IA

KY

MI

MN

MO

NM

NY

OH

PA

TX

VT

VA

WA

WI

20-State

 Total

130

1,408

162

283

129

134

224

141

297

555

174

216

697

265

624

362

161

125

249

1,373

7,709

132

1,452

159

307

125

136

215

134

297

545

162

225

700

260

614

342

162

122

249

1,366

7,704

1,885

1,665

1,415

1,660

1,510

1,430

1,472

1,105

1,530

1,465

1,240

1,705

1,440

1,460

1,535

1,475

1,430

1,345

1,805

1,410

1,515

2,135

1,785

1,490

1,650

1,480

1,330

1,540

1,110

1,580

1,555

1,320

1,755

1,490

1,460

1,565

1,585

1,470

1,350

1,885

1,435

1,577

245

2,344

229

470

195

192

330

156

454

813

216

368

1,004

387

958

534

230

168

449

1,936

11,678

282

2,592

237

507

185

181

331

149

469

847

214

395

1,043

380

961

542

238

165

469

1,960

12,147

15.1

10.6

3.5

7.9

-5.1

-5.7

0.3

-4.5

3.3

4.2

-0.9

7.3

3.9

-1.8

0.3

1.5

3.5

-1.8

4.5

1.2

4.0 1 Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2 Excludes milk sucked by calves.
Milk Production Agricultural Statistics Board

April 1999 4 NASS, USDA

Milk Cows and Production: By State, February 1998-99 1

State

Milk Cows 2 Milk per Cow 3 Milk Production 3

1998 1999 1998 1999 1998 1999

Change

From

1998

1,000 Head 1,000 Head Pounds Pounds Million Pounds Million Pounds Percent

AZ

CA

FL

ID

IL

IN

IA

KY

MI

MN

MO

NM

NY

OH

PA

TX

VT

VA

WA

WI

20-State

 Total

130

1,405

160

283

129

134

224

143

296

555

175

216

698

265

625

365

162

125

250

1,376

7,716

132

1,448

158

306

125

136

215

135

299

545

164

223

702

260

615

341

162

122

248

1,366

7,702

1,660

1,480

1,300

1,490

1,310

1,260

1,320

965

1,370

1,320

1,090

1,480

1,280

1,310

1,365

1,290

1,285

1,175

1,605

1,255

1,347

1,835

1,550

1,355

1,490

1,310

1,300

1,380

985

1,415

1,390

1,150

1,615

1,320

1,340

1,375

1,430

1,320

1,205

1,695

1,290

1,403

216

2,079

208

422

169

169

296

138

406

733

191

320

893

347

853

471

208

147

401

1,727

10,394

242

2,244

214

456

164

177

297

133

423

758

189

360

927

348

846

488

214

147

420

1,762

10,809

12.0

7.9

2.9

8.1

-3.0

4.7

0.3

-3.6

4.2

3.4

-1.0

12.5

3.8

0.3

-0.8

3.6

2.9

4.7

2.0

4.0 1 1999 revised. 2 Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3 Excludes milk sucked by calves.
Milk Production Agricultural Statistics Board

April 1999 5 NASS, USDA

Milk Cows and Production: By State and United States,

Revised October-December, 1997-98

State

Oct-Dec Milk Cows 1 Oct-Dec Milk Production 2 Change

From

1997 1998 1997 1998 1997

1,000 Head 1,000 Head Million Pounds Million Pounds Percent

AL

AK

AZ

AR

CA

CO

CT

DE

FL

GA

HI

ID

IL

IN

IA

KS

KY

LA

ME

MD

MA

MI

MN

MS

MO

MT

NE

NV

NH

NJ

NM

NY

NC

ND

OH

OK

OR

PA

RI

SC

SD

TN

TX

UT

VT

VA

WA

WV

WI

WY

US 3

29

0.9

130

51

1,397

83

30

10.0

159

96

8.9

279

131

135

226

80

146

65

41

86

26

302

560

44

176

18

69

26

20

20

209

699

78

53

266

91

88

625

2.0

25

102

110

371

89

162

125

251

18

1,385

6.4

9,200

27

0.8

132

46

1,436

83

30

11.0

158

90

8.8

299

126

137

224

83

136

63

42

86

25

299

545

41

166

18

70

25

20

19

218

702

73

50

262

92

88

620

2.0

24

102

101

341

93

161

123

247

18

1,368

5.9

9,137

100

3.80

632

150

6,917

395

128

36.8

570

357

27.7

1,336

527

544

915

315

423

184

161

331

105

1,313

2,192

142

552

70

261

122

80

71

1,002

2,794

318

167

1,062

307

388

2,633

7.6

94

338

380

1,350

366

640

466

1,276

68

5,394

19.2

38,031

92

3.51

676

154

7,020

421

129

37.3

546

343

29.5

1,473

517

547

972

320

404

176

166

320

106

1,343

2,291

132

573

73

266

115

79

70

1,093

2,879

312

172

1,062

304

394

2,623

7.8

88

366

357

1,345

381

666

449

1,326

68

5,630

19.5

38,937

-8.0

-7.6

7.0

2.7

1.5

6.6

0.8

1.4

-4.2

-3.9

6.5

10.3

-1.9

0.6

6.2

1.6

-4.5

-4.3

3.1

-3.3

1.0

2.3

4.5

-7.0

3.8

4.3

1.9

-5.7

-1.3

-1.4

9.1

3.0

-1.9

3.0

-1.0

1.5

-0.4

2.6

-6.4

8.3

-6.1

-0.4

4.1

4.1

-3.6

3.9

4.4

1.6

2.4 1 Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2 Excludes milk sucked by calves. 3 May not add due to rounding.
Milk Production Agricultural Statistics Board

April 1999 6 NASS, USDA

Milk Cows and Production: By State and United States,

Preliminary January-March, 1998-99

State

Jan-Mar Milk Cows 1 Jan-Mar Milk Production 2 Change

From

1998 1999 1998 1999 1998

1,000 Head 1,000 Head Million Pounds Million Pounds Percent

AL

AK

AZ

AR

CA

CO

CT

DE

FL

GA

HI

ID

IL

IN

IA

KS

KY

LA

ME

MD

MA

MI

MN

MS

MO

MT

NE

NV

NH

NJ

NM

NY

NC

ND

OH

OK

OR

PA

RI

SC

SD

TN

TX

UT

VT

VA

WA

WV

WI

WY

US 3

28

0.9

130

51

1,405

83

30

11.0

161

95

9.0

283

129

134

224

80

143

64

40

87

26

297

555

43

175

18

70

25

19

19

216

698

77

53

265

92

88

625

2.1

25

102

108

365

88

162

125

250

18

1,376

6.2

9,176

27

1.0

132

45

1,448

82

29

11.0

158

89

8.8

306

125

136

217

85

135

62

42

86

25

299

545

39

164

18

72

25

19

18

223

701

73

50

260

92

88

615

2.0

24

102

100

341

91

162

122

248

18

1,367

5.9

9,134

109

3.52

695

164

6,764

407

136

44.0

657

403

31.5

1,356

546

546

950

335

444

216

165

348

109

1,301

2,334

169

609

72

259

113

83

75

1,014

2,863

332

179

1,113

322

384

2,745

8.3

105

341

401

1,498

361

664

477

1,286

71

5,537

19.2

39,164

104

3.47

776

130

7,275

420

134

43.9

674

396

29.9

1,468

528

547

961

350

423

208

177

350

105

1,357

2,425

160

608

74

292

118

82

70

1,138

2,981

317

176

1,102

325

403

2,717

7.9

104

367

379

1,533

379

685

470

1,350

71

5,658

18.9

40,471

-4.6

-1.4

11.7

-20.7

7.6

3.2

-1.5

-0.2

2.6

-1.7

-5.1

8.3

-3.3

0.2

1.2

4.5

-4.7

-3.7

7.3

0.6

-3.7

4.3

3.9

-5.3

-0.2

2.8

12.7

4.4

-1.2

-6.7

12.2

4.1

-4.5

-1.7

-1.0

0.9

4.9

-1.0

-4.8

-1.0

7.6

-5.5

2.3

5.0

3.2

-1.5

5.0

2.2

-1.6

3.3 1 Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2 Excludes milk sucked by calves. 3 May not add due to rounding.
Milk Production Agricultural Statistics Board

April 1999 7 NASS, USDA

Reliability Statement

Survey Procedures: Primary data used to determine these estimates were obtained from a sample of

producers. Individual States maintain a list of all known milk producers and information on the size of

their herd. States use all known sources of producers to ensure that their lists are as complete as possible.

Generally, all large producers and a sample of small producers are included in the survey. 

Questionnaires are mailed to producers near the end of the month to obtain data for the first day of the

month. Additional reports are obtained by telephone, as needed, to supplement the mail response.

Estimation Procedures: State offices prepare these estimates using survey indications, historic trends,

and any available administrative data. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural

Statistics Board for reasonableness.

Revision Policy: Milk production, rate per cow, and number of cows are subject to revision the

following month for monthly States or the following quarter for the quarterly States. Normally, Federal

Market Order sales are the main basis for revisions. However, data for all orders are not available in time

for this revision. Estimates are again subject to revisions in February each year based on additional

administrative data. In the event that additional changes are necessary, a third revision is possible in

February the following year. Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five-year Census of

Agriculture are available. No revisions are made after that date.

Reliability: Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in the sample, survey estimates are

subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions,

duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors

cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection

process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness.

To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is

shown for selected items on the next page. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based

on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The "Root

Mean Square Error" for milk cow inventory estimates over the past 10 quarters is 1.1 percent. This

means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final January-March estimate will not be above or below the

current estimate of 9.13 million head by more than 1.1 percent, or about 100,000 head. Chances are 9

out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 2.0 percent, or about 183,000 head (the 90 percent

confidence level).
Milk Production Agricultural Statistics Board

April 1999 8 NASS, USDA

Reliability of January-March Milk Estimates 1

Item

Root

Mean

Square

Error

90%

Confidence

Level

Difference Between

First and Latest

Estimates

Quarters

First

Above

Latest

First

Below

Average Smallest Largest Latest

Percent Percent Million Pounds Million Pounds Million Pounds Million Pounds Number Number

Milk

 Production 0.5 0.9 364 170 47 315 8 2

Percent Percent 1,000 Head 1,000 Head 1,000 Head 1,000 Head Number Number

All Milk

 Cows 1.1 2.0 183 89 2 187 8 2

1 Based on records for the past 10 January-March quarters.
The next "Milk Production" report will be released at 3 p.m. ET on May 17, 1999.

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