HDR1012000160030313971500MILK PRODUCTION                                        
Milk                                                                            
Production                                                                      
                                                                                
National                                                                        
Agricultural                                                                    
Statistics                                                                      
Service                                                                         
                                                                                
USDA                                                                            
Washington, D.C.                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
Released March 14, 1997, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS),
Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture.  For information 
on "Milk Production" call Kevin Hintzman at (202) 720-4448, office hours        
7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET.                                                      
                                                                                
                                                                                
February Milk Production Down 2 Percent, Up 2 Percent on a Daily Basis          
                                                                                
                                                                                
Milk production in the 20 major States during February totaled 10.4 billion     
pounds, 2 percent below production in these same States in February 1996.  The  
monthly decrease is due to 1996 being a leap year with February 1996 having     
29 days.  On a daily basis, February 1997 production increased 2 percent versus 
February 1996.  January revised production, at 11.2 billion pounds was 1 percent
above January 1996.                                                             
                                                                                
                                                                                
Production per cow in the 20 major States averaged 1,337 pounds for February,   
10 pounds below February 1996. Again, the leap year in 1996 caused the monthly  
rate decline.                                                                   
                                                                                
                                                                                
The number of cows on farms in the 20 major States was 7.75 million head,       
81,000 head less than February 1996 and 10,000 head less than January 1996.     
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                Note:                                           
                                                                                
                                                                                
A new table with U.S. milk production by month is published beginning this      
month.  U.S. estimates are based on data from the 20 major States. The estimates
are created by dividing the 20 State estimate by the percentage of the U.S.     
total for the same quarter, previous year.                                      
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
         Milk Cows and Production:  By Quarter, United States,  1996-97         
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
        :    Milk Cows  1/   :  Milk per Cow  2/ :     Milk Production 2/       
        :---------------------------------------------------------------------- 
Quarter :          :         :         :         :         :         : 1997 as  
        :  1996    :  1997   :  1996   :  1997   :  1996   :  1997   :   % of   
        :          :         :         :         :         :         :   1996   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
        :    ---- 1,000 ----        Pounds         Million Pounds      Percent  
        :                                                                       
Jan-Mar :    9,397               4,155              39,042                      
Apr-Jun :    9,369               4,229              39,621                      
Jul-Sep :    9,338               4,033              37,658                      
Oct-Dec :    9,300               4,080              37,947                      
        :                                                                       
Annual  :    9,351              16,498             154,268                      
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
1/  Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh.                          
2/  Excludes milk sucked by calves.                                             
                                                                                
                                                                                
        Milk Cows and Production:  By Month, 20 Selected States, 1996-97        
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
        :    Milk Cows  1/   :  Milk per Cow  2/ :     Milk Production 2/       
        :---------------------------------------------------------------------- 
 Month  :          :         :         :         :         :         : 1997 as  
        :  1996    :  1997   :  1996   :  1997   :  1996   :  1997   :   % of   
        :          :         :         :         :         :         :   1996   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
        :    ---- 1,000 ----        Pounds         Million Pounds      Percent  
        :                                                                       
Jan     :    7,846     7,757     1,415     1,439    11,100    11,163       101  
Feb     :    7,828     7,747     1,347     1,337    10,545    10,355        98  
Mar     :    7,822               1,468              11,483                      
Apr     :    7,818               1,440              11,260                      
May     :    7,816               1,478              11,554                      
Jun     :    7,818               1,397              10,920                      
Jul     :    7,815               1,400              10,939                      
Aug     :    7,802               1,382              10,780                      
Sep     :    7,795               1,341              10,454                      
Oct     :    7,788               1,390              10,825                      
Nov     :    7,775               1,350              10,493                      
Dec     :    7,765               1,417              11,006                      
        :                                                                       
Annual  :    7,807              16,825             131,359                      
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
1/  Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh.                          
2/  Excludes milk sucked by calves.                                             
                                                                                
                                                                                
                 Estimated Milk Production, United States, 1996-97              
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
        :           by Month           :         Cumulative                     
        :---------------------------------------------------------------------- 
 Month  :          :         : 1997 as :         :         :   1997 as          
        :  1996    :  1997   :   % of  :  1996   :  1997   :     % of           
        :          :         :   1996  :         :         :     1996           
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
        :    Million Pounds    Percent     Million Pounds    Percent            
        :                                                                       
Jan     :   13,082    13,156       101    13,082    13,156       101            
Feb     :   12,427    12,204        98    25,509    25,360        99            
Mar     :   13,533                        39,042                                
Apr     :   13,225                        52,267                                
May     :   13,570                        65,837                                
Jun     :   12,826                        78,663                                
Jul     :   12,804                        91,467                                
Aug     :   12,618                       104,085                                
Sep     :   12,236                       116,321                                
Oct     :   12,708                       129,029                                
Nov     :   12,318                       141,347                                
Dec     :   12,921                       154,268                                
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
              Milk Cows and Production:  By State,  February 1996-97            
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
        :    Milk Cows  1/   :  Milk per Cow  2/ :     Milk Production 2/       
        :---------------------------------------------------------------------- 
 State  :          :         :         :         :         :         : 1997 as  
        :   1996   :  1997   :  1996   :  1997   :  1996   :  1997   :   % of   
        :          :         :         :         :         :         :   1996   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
        :    ---- 1,000 ----         Pounds          Million Pounds    Percent  
        :                                                                       
AZ      :      118       124     1,735     1,840       205       228       111  
CA      :    1,260     1,271     1,585     1,630     1,997     2,072       104  
FL      :      155       159     1,405     1,445       218       230       106  
ID      :      246       268     1,370     1,370       337       367       109  
IL      :      157       149     1,260     1,270       198       189        95  
IN      :      140       140     1,260     1,180       176       165        94  
IA      :      250       250     1,180     1,180       295       295       100  
KY      :      157       150       980       965       154       145        94  
MI      :      322       310     1,365     1,370       440       425        97  
MN      :      600       590     1,285     1,250       771       738        96  
MO      :      183       175     1,125     1,080       206       189        92  
NM      :      193       197     1,520     1,575       293       310       106  
NY      :      700       700     1,340     1,250       938       875        93  
OH      :      285       285     1,290     1,260       368       359        98  
PA      :      645       639     1,345     1,290       868       824        95  
TX      :      400       390     1,345     1,295       538       505        94  
VT      :      157       156     1,320     1,305       207       204        99  
VA      :      127       124     1,165     1,180       148       146        99  
WA      :      263       266     1,530     1,520       402       404       100  
WI      :    1,470     1,404     1,215     1,200     1,786     1,685        94  
        :                                                                       
20 State:                                                                       
 Total  :    7,828     7,747     1,347     1,337    10,545    10,355        98  
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
1/  Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh.                          
2/  Excludes milk sucked by calves.                                             
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
            Milk Cows and Production:  By State,  January 1996-97 1/            
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
        :    Milk Cows  2/   :  Milk per Cow  3/ :     Milk Production 3/       
        :---------------------------------------------------------------------- 
 State  :          :         :         :         :         :         : 1997 as  
        :   1996   :  1997   :  1996   :  1997   :  1996   :  1997   :   % of   
        :          :         :         :         :         :         :   1996   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
        :    ---- 1,000 ----         Pounds          Million Pounds    Percent  
        :                                                                       
AZ      :      118       122     1,765     1,820       208       222       107  
CA      :    1,260     1,270     1,675     1,720     2,111     2,184       103  
FL      :      155       159     1,405     1,515       218       241       111  
ID      :      245       268     1,490     1,500       365       402       110  
IL      :      158       149     1,300     1,290       205       192        94  
IN      :      140       140     1,290     1,320       181       185       102  
IA      :      250       250     1,260     1,300       315       325       103  
KY      :      159       150     1,025     1,065       163       160        98  
MI      :      325       311     1,425     1,480       463       460        99  
MN      :      600       595     1,360     1,360       816       809        99  
MO      :      185       175     1,175     1,210       217       212        98  
NM      :      193       197     1,570     1,675       303       330       109  
NY      :      700       700     1,400     1,380       980       966        99  
OH      :      286       285     1,320     1,335       378       380       101  
PA      :      648       641     1,405     1,385       910       888        98  
TX      :      400       390     1,380     1,390       552       542        98  
VT      :      158       156     1,385     1,375       219       215        98  
VA      :      128       125     1,235     1,270       158       159       101  
WA      :      263       266     1,655     1,650       435       439       101  
WI      :    1,475     1,408     1,290     1,315     1,903     1,852        97  
        :                                                                       
20 State:                                                                       
 Total  :    7,846     7,757     1,415     1,439    11,100    11,163       101  
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
1/  1997 revised.  2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh.        
3/  Excludes milk sucked by calves.                                             
                                                                                
                                                                                
                       Reliability Statement                                    
                                                                                
Survey Procedures:  Primary data used to determine these estimates were         
                    obtained from a sample of producers.  Individual States     
maintain a list of all known milk producers and information on the size of their
herd.  States use all known sources of producers to ensure that their lists are 
as complete as possible. Generally, all large producers and a sample of small   
producers are included in the survey.  Questionnaires are mailed to producers   
near the end of the month to obtain data for the first day of the month.        
Additional reports are obtained by telephone, as needed, to supplement the mail 
response.                                                                       
                                                                                
                                                                                
Estimation Procedures:  State offices prepare these estimates using survey      
                        indications, historic trends, and any available         
administrative data. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural
Statistics Board for reasonableness.                                            
                                                                                
                                                                                
Revision Policy:  Milk production, rate per cow, and number of cows are         
                  subject to revision the following month for monthly States or 
the following quarter for the quarterly States.  Normally, Federal Market Order 
sales are the main basis for revisions. However, data for all orders are not    
available in time for this revision.  Estimates are again subject to revisions  
in February each year based on additional administrative data.  In the event    
that additional changes are necessary, a third revision is possible in February 
the following year.  Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five-year 
Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions are made after that date.     
                                                                                
                                                                                
Reliability:  Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in the   
              sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability.     
Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions,       
duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The
effects of these errors cannot be measured directly.  They are minimized through
rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful     
review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness.                 
                                                                                
To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report,  
the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items on the next page.  The 
"Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and 
is computed using the differences between first and final estimates.  The "Root 
Mean Square Error" for milk cow inventory estimates over the past 10 quarters is
1.3 percent.  This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final             
October-December estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of    
9.30 million head by more than 1.3 percent, or about 121,000 head.  Chances are 
9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 2.5 percent, or about 233,000   
head (the 90 percent confidence level).                                         
                                                                                
                Reliability of October-December Milk Estimates 1/               
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
             :        :              :    Difference Between    :               
             :        :              :      First and Final     :    Number of  
             :  Root  :     90%      :         Estimates  1/    :    Quarters   
    Item     :  Mean  :  Confidence  :------------------------------------------
             : Square :    Level     :        :         :       : First : First 
             :  Error :              : Average: Smallest:Largest: Above : Below 
             :        :              :        :         :       : Final : Final 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             :   - Percent -     ---------- Mil Lbs. ----------     - Number -  
             :                                                                  
Milk         :   0.8     1.5     569     229       22      565     10       0   
  Production :                                                                  
             :                  --------- 1,000 Head ----------                 
                                                                                
             :                                                                  
All Milk     :   1.3     2.5     233     123       42      195     10       0   
  Cows       :                                                                  
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/  Based on records for the past 10 October-December quarters.                 
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
The next "Milk Production" report will be released at 3 P.M. ET on              
April 15, 1997.                                                                 
                                                                                
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