Da 1-1  (6-99)
 
 
National
Agricultural
Statistics
Service
 
USDA
 
Washington, D.C.
 
Milk
Production
 
 
 
Released June 15, 1999, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service
(NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture.
For information on "Milk Production" call James Hand at 202-690-3236,
office hours 7:00 a.m. to 4:30 p.m. ET.
 
 
 
 
              May Milk Production Up 3.5 Percent
 
Milk production in the 20 major States during May totaled 12.4 billion
pounds, up 3.5 percent from production in these same States in May 1998.
April revised production, at 12.0 billion pounds, was up 3.5 percent
from April 1998.
 
 
Production per cow in the 20 major States averaged 1,610 pounds for May,
54 pounds above May 1998.
 
 
The number of cows on farms in the 20 major States was 7.72 million
head, 3,000 head more than May 1998, and 8,000 head more than April
1999.
 
 
 
 
 
        Milk Cows and Production:  By Quarter, United States, 1998-99 1/
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          :   Milk Cows 2/    :  Milk Per Cow 3/  :     Milk Production 3/
          :---------------------------------------------------------------------
  Quarter :         :         :         :         :         :         : Change
          :  1998   :  1999   :  1998   :  1999   :  1998   :  1999   :  From
          :         :         :         :         :         :         :  1998
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          :     1,000 Head      ---- Pounds ----     Million Pounds     Percent
          :
Jan-Mar   :  9,176     9,136     4,268     4,436     39,164   40,526      3.5
Apr-Jun   :  9,171               4,451               40,821
Jul-Sep   :  9,149               4,210               38,519
Oct-Dec   :  9,137               4,261               38,937
          :
Annual    :  9,158              17,192              157,441
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/  May not add due to rounding.
2/  Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh.
3/  Excludes milk sucked by calves.
 
 
        Milk Cows and Production:  By Month, 20 Selected States, 1998-99
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          :   Milk Cows 1/    :  Milk Per Cow 2/  :     Milk Production 2/
          :---------------------------------------------------------------------
   Month  :         :         :         :         :         :         : Change
          :  1998   :  1999   :  1998   :  1999   :  1998   :  1999   :  From
          :         :         :         :         :         :         :  1998
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          :     1,000 Head      ---- Pounds ----     Million Pounds     Percent
          :
Jan       :  7,728     7,704     1,466     1,521     11,327   11,720      3.5
Feb       :  7,716     7,702     1,347     1,403     10,394   10,809      4.0
Mar       :  7,709     7,708     1,515     1,584     11,678   12,212      4.6
Apr       :  7,713     7,714     1,501     1,554     11,579   11,989      3.5
May       :  7,719     7,722     1,556     1,610     12,011   12,430      3.5
Jun       :  7,718               1,477               11,396
Jul       :  7,709               1,468               11,314
Aug       :  7,708               1,443               11,124
Sep       :  7,701               1,386               10,672
Oct       :  7,695               1,446               11,125
Nov       :  7,697               1,407               10,829
Dec       :  7,708               1,489               11,481
          :
Annual    :  7,710              17,501              134,930
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/  Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh.
2/  Excludes milk sucked by calves.
 
 
               Estimated Milk Production:  United States, 1998-99
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
            :             By Month             :           Cumulative
            :-------------------------------------------------------------------
    Month   :         :           :   Change   :         :         :   Change
            :  1998   :   1999    :    From    :  1998   :  1999   :    From
            :         :           :    1998    :         :         :    1998
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
            :   Million Pounds       Percent      Million Pounds      Percent
            :
Jan         : 13,282     13,671        2.9        13,282   13,671       2.9
Feb         : 12,188     12,609        3.5        25,470   26,280       3.2
Mar         : 13,694     14,246        4.0        39,164   40,526       3.5
Apr         : 13,510     13,988        3.5        52,674   54,514       3.5
May         : 14,015     14,502        3.5        66,689   69,016       3.5
Jun         : 13,296                              79,985
Jul         : 13,162                              93,147
Aug         : 12,942                             106,089
Sep         : 12,415                             118,504
Oct         : 12,956                             131,460
Nov         : 12,611                             144,071
Dec         : 13,370                             157,441
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 
 
 
 
                Milk Cows and Production:  By State, May 1998-99
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          :   Milk Cows 1/    :  Milk Per Cow 2/  :     Milk Production 2/
          :---------------------------------------------------------------------
   Month  :         :         :         :         :         :         : Change
          :  1998   :  1999   :  1998   :  1999   :  1998   :  1999   :  From
          :         :         :         :         :         :         :  1998
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          :     1,000 Head       ---- Pounds ---     Million Pounds     Percent
          :
AZ        :    130       134     1,945     2,060       253       276      9.1
CA        :  1,414     1,460     1,720     1,825     2,432     2,665      9.6
FL        :    162       160     1,350     1,420       219       227      3.7
ID        :    293       314     1,680     1,720       492       540      9.8
IL        :    128       123     1,510     1,490       193       183     -5.2
IN        :    137       136     1,420     1,400       195       190     -2.6
IA        :    223       215     1,520     1,550       339       333     -1.8
KY        :    141       133     1,115     1,120       157       149     -5.1
MI        :    299       293     1,560     1,600       466       469      0.6
MN        :    555       545     1,490     1,550       827       845      2.2
MO        :    172       161     1,285     1,305       221       210     -5.0
NM        :    217       232     1,795     1,795       390       416      6.7
NY        :    701       700     1,490     1,520     1,044     1,064      1.9
OH        :    265       259     1,485     1,480       394       383     -2.8
PA        :    623       615     1,550     1,605       966       987      2.2
TX        :    356       345     1,480     1,515       527       523     -0.8
VT        :    162       162     1,480     1,530       240       248      3.3
VA        :    125       122     1,310     1,330       164       162     -1.2
WA        :    248       247     1,885     1,960       467       484      3.6
WI        :  1,368     1,366     1,480     1,520     2,025     2,076      2.5
          :
20-State  :
 Total    :  7,719     7,722     1,556     1,610    12,011    12,430      3.5
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/  Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh.
2/  Excludes milk sucked by calves.
 
 
 
 
              Milk Cows and Production:  By State, April 1998-99 1/
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          :   Milk Cows 2/    :  Milk per Cow 3/  :     Milk Production 3/
          :---------------------------------------------------------------------
   State  :         :         :         :         :         :         : Change
          :  1998   :  1999   :  1998   :  1999   :  1998   :  1999   :  From
          :         :         :         :         :         :         :  1998
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          :     1,000 Head       ---- Pounds ---     Million Pounds     Percent
          :
AZ        :    130       132     1,885     2,070       245       273     11.4
CA        :  1,410     1,456     1,640     1,770     2,312     2,577     11.5
FL        :    162       160     1,375     1,430       223       229      2.7
ID        :    288       312     1,620     1,640       467       512      9.6
IL        :    129       124     1,490     1,430       192       177     -7.8
IN        :    136       136     1,410     1,340       192       182     -5.2
IA        :    223       215     1,465     1,500       327       323     -1.2
KY        :    141       134     1,135     1,110       160       149     -6.9
MI        :    298       294     1,495     1,540       446       453      1.6
MN        :    555       545     1,435     1,495       796       815      2.4
MO        :    173       161     1,305     1,305       226       210     -7.1
NM        :    216       231     1,720     1,740       372       402      8.1
NY        :    700       700     1,420     1,460       994     1,022      2.8
OH        :    265       260     1,470     1,420       390       369     -5.4
PA        :    624       615     1,530     1,545       955       950     -0.5
TX        :    359       342     1,490     1,545       535       528     -1.3
VT        :    162       162     1,405     1,445       228       234      2.6
VA        :    125       122     1,320     1,320       165       161     -2.4
WA        :    249       248     1,790     1,870       446       464      4.0
WI        :  1,368     1,365     1,395     1,435     1,908     1,959      2.7
          :
20-State  :
 Total    :  7,713     7,714     1,501     1,554    11,579    11,989      3.5
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/  1999 revised.
2/  Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh.
3/  Excludes milk sucked by calves.
 
 
 
 
                       Reliability Statement
 
Survey Procedures:  Primary data used to determine these estimates were
obtained from a sample of producers.  Individual States maintain a list of all
known milk producers and information on the size of their herd.  States use all
known sources of producers to ensure that their lists are as complete as
possible. Generally, all large producers and a sample of small producers are
included in the survey.  Questionnaires are mailed to producers near the end of
the month to obtain data for the first day of the month.  Additional reports
are obtained by telephone, as needed, to supplement the mail response.
 
 
Estimation Procedures:  State offices prepare these estimates using survey
indications, historic trends, and any available administrative data. Individual
State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board for
reasonableness.
 
 
Revision Policy:  Milk production, rate per cow, and number of cows are subject
to revision the following month for monthly States or the following quarter for
the quarterly States.  Normally, Federal Market Order sales are the main basis
for revisions. However, data for all orders are not available in time for this
revision.  Estimates are again subject to revisions in February each year based
on additional administrative data.  In the event that additional changes are
necessary, a third revision is possible in February the following year.
Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five-year Census of
Agriculture are available. No revisions are made after that date.
 
 
Reliability:  Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in the
sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results
are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and
mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these
errors cannot be measured directly.  They are minimized through rigid quality
controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all
reported data for consistency and reasonableness.
 
 
To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report,
the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items on the next page. The
"Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and
is computed using the differences between first and final estimates.  The "Root
Mean Square Error" for milk cow inventory estimates over the past 10 quarters
is 1.1 percent.  This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final
January-March estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 9.14
million head by more than 1.1 percent, or about 100,000 head.  Chances are 9
out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 2.0 percent, or about 183,000
head (the 90 percent confidence level).
 
                 Reliability of January-March Milk Estimates 1/
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             :       :                :   Difference Between    :   Quarters
             : Root  :      90%       :    First and Latest     :---------------
             : Mean  :   Confidence   :        Estimates        : First : First
     Item    :Square :     Level      :-------------------------: Above : Below
             : Error :                :Average:Smallest:Largest :Latest :Latest
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             :    Percent       ------- Million Pounds ------         Number
             :
Milk         :
  Production :  0.5     0.9     365      170      47      315       8       2
             :    Percent       --------- 1,000 Head --------         Number
             :
All Milk     :
  Cows       :  1.1     2.0     183       89       2      187       8       2
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/  Based on records for the past 10 January-March quarters.
 
 
 
The next "Milk Production" report will be released at 3 p.m. ET on July 15,
1999.
 
 
 
 
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