Pot 1-2 (5-99)

Potato

Stocks

National

Agricultural

Statistics

Service

USDA

Washington, D.C.

Released May 14, 1999, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of

Agriculture. For information on "Potato Stocks" call Arvin Budge at (202) 720-4285, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET.

May Potato Stocks Down 6 Percent

The 15 major potato States held 87.6 million cwt of potatoes on May 1, 1999, down 6 percent from last

year and 15 percent below May 1997. Storage accounted for 21 percent of 1998 fall production, 1

percent less than a year ago. Disappearance, at 337 million cwt, is up 5 percent from last year but 1

percent below the record high from the 1996 crop. Processor usage in the eight major States, totaled 168

million cwt, up 8 percent from last year.
Potato Stocks Agricultural Statistics Board

May 1999 2 NASS, USDA

Fall Potatoes: Production and Stocks, 15 Major States, 1989-98

Crop

Year Production Dec 1 Jan 1 Feb 1 Mar 1 Apr 1 May 1

1,000 Cwt 1,000 Cwt 1,000 Cwt 1,000 Cwt 1,000 Cwt 1,000 Cwt 1,000 Cwt

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

316,097

344,200

363,541

368,516

376,954

410,839

394,785

443,704

413,513

424,897

202,050

225,500

242,070

246,820

249,410

273,290

256,710

295,100

278,830

282,300

173,550

194,460

211,005

215,990

217,300

238,560

223,550

261,320

246,550

246,220

144,290

162,850

178,515

184,560

185,490

202,470

189,360

226,080

212,562

211,100

116,600

134,470

145,820

152,795

153,435

169,570

156,020

189,210

175,870

174,100

84,320

101,150

108,865

115,785

115,170

129,825

115,855

147,585

134,190

130,890

50,675

63,040

69,110

75,040

72,860

87,600

75,870

103,210

92,840

87,640

Potatoes: Quantity Used for Processing, 8 States, 1995-98 1

State and

Crop Year Dec 1 Jan 1 Feb 1 Mar 1 Apr 1 May 1 Season

1,000 Cwt 1,000 Cwt 1,000 Cwt 1,000 Cwt 1,000 Cwt 1,000 Cwt 1,000 Cwt

ID & OR-Malheur Co

 1995

 1996

 1997

 1998

ME 2

 1995

 1996

 1997

 1998

WA & OR - Other

 1995

 1996

 1997

 1998

Oth Sts 3

 1995

 1996

 1997

 1998

Total

 1995

 1996

 1997

 1998

27,310

31,060

26,880

27,510

1,455

1,790

1,250

1,180

30,000

31,670

28,580

33,460

12,650

13,720

11,645

11,020

71,415

78,240

68,355

73,170

35,040

38,210

33,950

34,700

1,850

2,115

1,720

1,710

35,170

36,660

33,990

38,895

15,630

17,000

13,960

13,785

87,690

93,985

83,620

89,090

43,260

45,420

41,050

42,670

2,430

2,820

2,265

2,260

39,460

41,700

38,690

45,650

18,815

20,645

17,115

17,510

103,965

110,585

99,120

108,090

51,530

54,640

49,470

51,210

2,850

3,280

2,735

2,983

45,280

48,740

46,400

53,290

21,985

24,085

19,905

21,185

121,645

130,745

118,510

128,668

59,060

62,570

57,620

60,040

3,435

3,820

3,355

3,595

51,730

55,570

53,720

60,930

25,510

27,650

23,515

24,485

139,735

149,610

138,210

149,050

66,690

70,720

65,750

68,550

3,965

4,420

3,900

4,190

57,360

62,320

59,780

67,180

28,610

30,830

26,365

28,370

156,625

168,290

155,795

168,290

89,250

96,970

91,450

5,725

6,495

5,870

70,250

80,970

76,930

33,580

43,100

37,842

198,805

227,535

212,092

1 Total quantity received and used for processing regardless of the State in which the potatoes were produced. Amount

excludes quantities used for potato chips in ME, MI, MN, ND, and WI. 2 Includes Maine grown potatoes only. 3 MI, MN, ND, and WI.
Potato Stocks Agricultural Statistics Board

May 1999 3 NASS, USDA

Fall Potatoes: Production and Stocks on May 1, 1998-99

State

Crop of 1997 Crop of 1998

Prod

Stocks

May 1,

1998

%

of

Prod

Prod

Stocks

May 1,

1999 1

%

of

Prod

1,000 Cwt 1,000 Cwt Percent 1,000 Cwt 1,000 Cwt Percent

CA

CO

ID

ME

MI

MN

MT

NE 2

NY

ND

OH 2

OR

PA

WA

WI

15 States

4,200

24,993

140,314

19,080

14,250

20,440

3,328

7,761

7,150

22,000

1,170

27,319

3,173

88,160

30,175

413,513

1,200

7,700

41,500

4,500

1,000

4,500

150

300

100

4,700

6,500

190

16,000

4,500

92,840

29

31

30

24

7

22

5

1

21

24

6

18

15

22

3,708

25,360

139,650

18,060

14,725

21,170

3,180

8,175

7,290

28,670

1,200

26,229

3,360

93,225

30,895

424,897

900

6,400

39,000

3,800

800

4,300

270

400

140

6,500

7,000

130

14,500

3,500

87,640

24

25

28

21

5

20

8

2

23

27

4

16

11

21 1 Stocks include processor holdings and seed to plant 1999 potatoes; 1998 crop seed usage total 30 million cwt. 2 Combined to prevent disclosure of individual operations.

NOTE: Stocks are defined as the quantity (whether sold or not) remaining in storage for all purposes

and uses, including seed potatoes not yet moved and shrinkage, waste, and other losses that occur after

the date of each report. Sales of fall potatoes for all purposes for the past five years averaged 90.8

percent of the total fall production. Shrinkage, loss and home use account for the remaining 9.2 percent. 

Potatoes: Production, Sold, Not Sold, and Kept for Seed,

United States, 1993-98

Crop

Year

Fall Potatoes Amount Used

for Seed

All Seasons

Following

year

Production Sold

Sold

as % of

Prod

Not Sold

Not Sold

as % of

Prod

1,000 Cwt 1,000 Cwt Percent 1,000 Cwt Percent 1,000 Cwt

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

387,885

422,345

404,852

454,388

423,190

434,368

353,052

380,818

370,679

408,247

387,089

91.000

90.200

91.600

89.800

91.500

34,833

41,527

34,173

46,141

36,101

9.0

9.8

8.4

10.2

8.5

29,076

29,428

30,561

29,138

29,975
Potato Stocks Agricultural Statistics Board

May 1999 4 NASS, USDA

Fall Potatoes: Production, May 1 Stocks, and Farm Disposition,

15 States and Fall Season, 1995-98 Crop Years

State Crop

Year Production StocksMay 1

Total

Used

For

Seed

Farm Disposition

Where Grown

Seed, Feed, Sold

Home Use

Shrinkage

and Loss

1,000 Cwt 1,000 Cwt 1,000 Cwt 1,000 Cwt 1,000 Cwt 1,000 Cwt

CA

CO

ID

ME

MI

MN

MT

NE 1

NY

1995

1996

1997

1998

1995

1996

1997

1998

1995

1996

1997

1998

1995

1996

1997

1998

1995

1996

1997

1998

1995

1996

1997

1998

1995

1996

1997

1998

1995

1996

1997

1998

1995

1996

1997

1998

5,330

4,600

4,200

3,708

23,808

29,175

24,993

25,360

132,657

142,800

140,314

139,650

17,160

21,175

19,080

18,060

16,350

13,800

14,250

14,725

20,790

24,600

20,440

21,170

2,940

3,213

3,328

3,180

3,680

4,402

7,761

8,175

7,425

7,420

7,150

7,290

1,100

1,100

1,200

900

6,200

9,900

7,700

6,400

36,000

41,000

41,500

39,000

2,800

5,300

4,500

3,800

1,200

1,000

1,000

800

4,500

5,500

4,500

4,300

340

300

150

270

200

390

300

400

150

160

100

140

242

200

206

1,950

1,925

1,895

8,700

8,600

8,700

1,716

1,584

1,430

962

768

864

1,573

1,348

1,640

239

239

244

292

451

462

594

583

607

10

23

20

1,285

1,485

1,340

1,785

1,500

1,130

420

395

275

168

300

200

346

445

450

128

137

152

187

169

203

155

127

139

460

472

340

2,048

3,975

2,773

8,920

10,100

9,258

1,025

1,800

1,760

690

1,300

1,300

1,757

4,158

1,717

147

221

208

284

439

380

290

341

315

4,860

4,105

3,840

20,475

23,715

20,880

121,952

131,200

129,926

15,715

18,980

17,045

15,492

12,200

12,750

18,687

19,997

18,273

2,665

2,855

2,968

3,209

3,794

7,178

6,980

6,952

6,696

--continued
Potato Stocks Agricultural Statistics Board

May 1999 5 NASS, USDA

Fall Potatoes: Production, May 1 Stocks, and Farm Disposition,

15 States and Fall Season, 1995-98 (continued)

State Crop

Year Production StocksMay 1

Total

Used

For

Seed

Farm Disposition

Where Grown

Seed, Feed, Sold

Home Use

Shrinkage

and Loss

1,000 Cwt 1,000 Cwt 1,000 Cwt 1,000 Cwt 1,000 Cwt 1,000 Cwt

ND

OH 1

OR

PA

WA

WI

15 Sts

23 Fall Sts

1995

1996

1997

1998

1995

1996

1997

1998

1995

1996

1997

1998

1995

1996

1997

1998

1995

1996

1997

1998

1995

1996

1997

1998

1995

1996

1997

1998

1995

1996

1997

1998

25,410

28,820

22,000

28,670

1,404

1,275

1,170

1,200

24,788

30,124

27,319

26,229

4,080

4,160

3,173

3,360

80,850

94,990

88,160

93,225

28,113

33,150

30,175

30,895

394,785

443,704

413,513

424,897

404,852

454,388

423,190

434,368

4,500

7,300

4,700

6,500

4,500

9,200

6,500

7,000

180

160

190

130

12,500

16,500

16,000

14,500

1,700

5,400

4,500

3,500

75,870

103,210

92,840

87,640

2,211

2,188

2,142

107

109

105

1,475

1,345

1,405

314

266

276

3,912

3,648

3,840

1,806

1,710

1,764

26,093

24,964

25,580

26,813

25,608

26,224

280

360

355

4

5

8

148

305

195

20

81

78

300

300

300

298

320

275

5,534

5,952

5,120

5,569

6,054

5,260

2,800

5,270

2,266

10

35

37

1,450

2,560

1,555

102

320

176

6,400

6,800

6,400

1,350

1,425

1,448

27,733

39,216

29,933

28,604

40,087

30,841

22,330

23,190

19,379

1,390

1,235

1,125

23,190

27,259

25,569

3,958

3,759

2,919

74,150

87,890

81,460

26,465

31,405

28,452

361,518

398,536

378,460

370,679

408,247

387,089

1 Combined to prevent disclosure of individual operations.
Potato Stocks Agricultural Statistics Board

May 1999 6 NASS, USDA

Fall Potatoes: Farm Marketings, Selected States,

1995-97 Marketing Years

State Crop

Year Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul

Percent Percent Percent Percent Percent Percent Percent Percent Percent Percent Percent Percent Percent

CO

ID

ME

MI

MN

NY

ND

OR

PA

WA

WI

1995

1996

1997

1995

1996

1997

1995

1996

1997

1995

1996

1997

1995

1996

1997

1995

1996

1997

1995

1996

1997

1995

1996

1997

1995

1996

1997

1995

1996

1997

1995

1996

1997

1

3

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

4

6

6

2

1

1

5

9

9

2

6

5

6

7

8

3

4

1

12

14

9

18

12

13

16

17

12

9

6

7

4

4

4

16

14

15

5

8

6

11

10

10

30

22

22

15

17

15

14

12

12

16

16

14

18

15

13

13

11

14

17

20

17

8

7

8

17

18

12

7

7

7

15

11

8

26

19

25

15

17

15

16

22

16

25

26

30

18

13

12

32

31

31

13

14

14

10

9

9

6

7

8

9

7

8

13

11

11

6

11

11

17

14

16

9

8

13

7

7

8

13

11

12

7

8

7

12

10

10

10

9

11

7

5

8

9

8

8

13

9

11

4

5

7

16

14

15

10

7

8

6

5

6

13

9

12

3

3

4

7

7

9

11

10

10

6

6

8

11

10

10

11

12

11

5

5

5

12

10

13

9

7

12

6

5

5

9

10

10

4

4

4

10

8

8

10

9

8

6

6

6

11

9

9

6

11

12

5

7

6

8

8

9

9

8

9

5

5

6

5

8

8

4

4

4

9

11

11

10

10

11

9

9

7

17

14

15

9

10

11

6

8

7

6

7

5

8

10

9

5

4

6

3

9

7

7

5

6

11

9

10

12

11

11

8

8

7

18

16

17

11

9

8

8

8

7

4

4

3

9

7

8

7

6

5

2

6

8

5

5

6

8

7

7

10

10

10

8

8

9

7

9

10

6

5

6

6

5

5

1

2

1

11

6

6

7

5

6

1

4

3

4

5

6

3

4

4

9

11

10

7

6

7

4

11

9

2

2

4

2

7

5

1

5

3

2

1

4

5

5

3

2

6

10

7

6

7

7

2

1

2

1

1

1

2

1
Potato Stocks Agricultural Statistics Board

May 1999 7 NASS, USDA

Potato Stocks Down 6 Percent

May 1, 1999 potato stocks totaled 87.6 million cwt, down 6 percent from a year ago and 15 percent

below two years ago. Storage accounted for 21 percent of 1998 fall production, 1 percent less than a

year ago. 

Disappearance from the start of harvest to May 1 totaled 337 million cwt, up 5 percent from last year

but 1 percent below the record high two years ago. April disappearance totaled 43.3 million cwt, 5

percent above last year but down 3 percent from April 1997. Shrink and loss to date is estimated at 30.1

million cwt, up 18 percent from last year. 

Processing of 1998 crop potatoes so far this season totaled 168 million cwt, up 8 percent from the 1997

crop and equal to the 1996 crop. April processing used a record 19.2 million cwt of raw potatoes, up 9

percent from last year and 3 percent above two years ago. 

Eastern States stored 4.1 million cwt of potatoes on May 1, 1999, down 15 percent from a year ago and

28 percent below two years ago. Maine's holdings were down 16 percent from a year ago and

Pennsylvania’s were off 32 percent. New York’s stocks were up 40 percent. 

Central States accounted for 15.5 million cwt of potato stocks this May, up 3 percent from May 1998

but 21 percent below two years ago. North Dakota’s stocks were up 38 percent from last year. 

Wisconsin’s stocks were off 22 percent, Michigan was down 20 percent, and Minnesota was down 4

percent from last year. 

Western States held 68.1 million cwt of potatoes in storage on May 1, 1999, down 7 percent from last

year and 15 percent below May 1997. Idaho’s stocks were down 6 percent and account for 57 percent of

the Western States’ total. California’s stocks were down 25 percent and Colorado dropped 17 percent. 

Washington’s stocks were down 9 percent but Oregon stored 8 percent more than a year ago. Montana’s

seed movement is late with remaining storage 80 percent above last year at this time.
Potato Stocks Agricultural Statistics Board

May 1999 8 NASS, USDA

Reliability of May 1 Stocks Estimates

The "Root Mean Square Error" for the May 1 stocks estimate is 7.6 percent. This means that chances

are 2 out of 3 that the current estimate of 87.6 million cwt will not be above or below the final estimate

by more than 7.6 percent or approximately 6.7 million cwt. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent

confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 13.1 percent or about 11.5 million cwt. 

The 10-year (1989-98) record of the differences between the May 1 stocks estimates and the final

estimates averaged 4.7 million cwt, ranging from 0.6 million to 11.5 million cwt. During the 10-year

period, the May 1 stocks forecast has been below the final 9 out of 10 years.

Fall Potato Stocks: Preliminary and Final May Stocks,

United States, 1988-98

Crop

Year

Preliminary

Stocks

% of

Final

Final

Stocks

1,000 Cwt Percent 1,000 Cwt

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

54,390

50,125

54,400

70,020

63,550

68,060

81,495

72,210

100,780

87,113

87,640

91.6

98.9

86.3

101.3

84.7

93.4

93.0

95.2

97.6

93.8

59,355

50,675

63,040

69,110

75,040

72,860

87,600

75,870

103,210

92,840
The next "Potato Stocks" report will be released at 3 p.m. ET on June 15, 1999.

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