HDR1012000160030115971500MILK PRODUCTION                                        
Milk                                                                            
Production                                                                      
                                                                                
National                                                                        
Agricultural                                                                    
Statistics                                                                      
Service                                                                         
                                                                                
USDA                                                                            
Washington, D.C.                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
Released January 15, 1997, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service      
(NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture.  For     
information on "Milk Production" call Kevin Hintzman at (202) 720-4448, office  
hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET.  For assistance with general agricultural      
statistics, information about NASS, its products or services, contact the       
Agricultural Statistics Hotline at 1-800-727-9540 or E-mail:                    
NASS@NASS.USDA.GOV.  The "Milk Production" U.S. Summary is available on         
AutoFax, (202) 720-2000, report 5200.                                           
                                                                                
                                                                                
               December Milk Production Down Slightly                           
                                                                                
Milk production in the 22 major States during December totaled 11.1 billion     
pounds, slightly below production in these same States in December 1995.        
November revised production, at 10.7 billion pounds was slightly above November 
1995. During 1996, milk production was 1.2 billion pounds less than 1995. On a  
daily basis, 1996 production averaged 4.4 million pounds per day less than      
1995.                                                                           
                                                                                
Production per cow in the 22 major States averaged 1,394 pounds for December,   
14 pounds above December 1995.                                                  
                                                                                
The number of cows on farms in the 22 major States was 7.94 million head,       
97,000 head less than December 1995 and 6,000 head less than November 1996.     
This is the seventeenth consecutive month of decline. The number of cows on     
farms averaged 101,000 less during 1996 when compared to 1995. The number of    
milk cows on farms was the lowest on record.                                    
                                                                                
During the October-December period, the 22 major States produced 32.7 billion   
pounds of milk, 86.4 percent of the U.S. production.  If the remaining 28       
States not surveyed monthly followed the same pattern as the 22 States, the     
U.S. production would be 12.7 billion pounds for October 1996, 12.4 billion     
pounds for November 1996, 12.8 billion pounds for December 1996.                
                                                                                
                                                                                
        U.S. October-December Milk Production Up Slightly                       
                                                                                
The quarterly production of milk for the U.S. was 37.9 billion pounds, slightly 
above the October-December period in 1995.  The average number of milk cows in  
the U.S. during the October-December quarter was 9.32 million head 114,000 less 
than the same period a year earlier.                                            
                                                                                
                                                                                
                  Grain and Other Concentrates Fed                              
                                                                                
Grain and other concentrates fed to milk cows on January 1, 1997, averaged      
19.2 pounds per cow, 0.4 pound more than January 1, 1996.                       
                                                                                
                                                                                
               Value of Grain and Other Concentrates                            
                                                                                
The value of grain and other concentrates fed to cows on January 1, averaged    
$8.79 per hundredweight, $.28 more than January 1, 1996.                        
                                                                                
                               ****                                             
                                                                                
NASS is planning to change the States that are included in the monthly milk     
production estimating program starting January 1997.  The last major change was 
in 1986.  We plan to drop Maryland, North Carolina, and Tennessee while adding  
Arizona.                                                                        
                                                                                
Historic monthly estimates have been created for Arizona back to 1994.          
Therefore, data users will have a comparable data set for 1994, 1995, and 1996  
for the 20 State monthly total.  The 20 States in the monthly estimating        
program account for 85 percent of the U.S. milk production.                     
                                                                                
                                                                                
     Milk Cows and Production:  By Quarter, United States,  1995-96             
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
        :    Milk Cows  1/   :  Milk per Cow  2/ :     Milk Production 2/       
        :---------------------------------------------------------------------- 
Quarter :          :         :         :         :         :         : 1996 as  
        :  1995    :  1996   :  1995   :  1996   :  1995   :  1996   :   % of   
        :          :         :         :         :         :         :   1995   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
        :    ---- 1,000 ----        Pounds         Million Pounds      Percent  
        :                                                                       
Jan-Mar :    9,470     9,402     4,112     4,160    38,941    39,111       100  
Apr-Jun :    9,477     9,375     4,276     4,236    40,520    39,706        98  
Jul-Sep :    9,465     9,344     4,049     4,041    38,325    37,759        99  
Oct-Dec :    9,432     9,318     4,014     4,064    37,857    37,868       100  
        :                                                                       
Annual  :    9,461     9,360    16,451    16,501   155,644   154,445        99  
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
1/  Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh.                          
2/  Excludes milk sucked by calves.                                             
                                                                                
                                                                                
         Milk Cows and Production:  By Month, 22 Selected States, 1995-96       
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
        :    Milk Cows  1/   :  Milk per Cow  2/ :     Milk Production 2/       
        :---------------------------------------------------------------------- 
 Month  :          :         :         :         :         :         : 1996 as  
        :  1995    :  1996   :  1995   :  1996   :  1995   :  1996   :   % of   
        :          :         :         :         :         :         :   1995   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
        :    ---- 1,000 ----        Pounds         Million Pounds      Percent  
        :                                                                       
Jan     :    8,046     8,026     1,404     1,406    11,296    11,285       100  
Feb     :    8,050     8,010     1,295     1,338    10,423    10,719       103  
Mar     :    8,061     7,998     1,453     1,459    11,709    11,671       100  
Apr     :    8,058     7,988     1,427     1,434    11,501    11,451       100  
May     :    8,056     7,987     1,484     1,470    11,959    11,740        98  
Jun     :    8,066     7,984     1,421     1,387    11,465    11,075        97  
Jul     :    8,062     7,977     1,414     1,397    11,397    11,142        98  
Aug     :    8,062     7,969     1,375     1,377    11,086    10,970        99  
Sep     :    8,061     7,957     1,331     1,337    10,729    10,640        99  
Oct     :    8,050     7,953     1,364     1,380    10,978    10,977       100  
Nov     :    8,043     7,943     1,320     1,342    10,616    10,662       100  
Dec     :    8,034     7,937     1,380     1,394    11,088    11,063       100  
        :                                                                       
Annual  :    8,054     7,977    16,668    16,722   134,247   133,395        99  
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
1/  Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh.                          
2/  Excludes milk sucked by calves.                                             
                                                                                
                                                                                
             Milk Cows and Production:  By State,  December 1995-96             
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
        :    Milk Cows  1/   :  Milk per Cow  2/ :     Milk Production 2/       
        :---------------------------------------------------------------------- 
 State  :          :         :         :         :         :         : 1996 as  
        :   1995   :  1996   :  1995   :  1996   :  1995   :  1996   :   % of   
        :          :         :         :         :         :         :   1995   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
        :    ---- 1,000 ----         Pounds          Million Pounds    Percent  
        :                                                                       
CA      :    1,259     1,268     1,665     1,700     2,096     2,156       103  
FL      :      155       158     1,300     1,300       202       205       101  
ID      :      244       267     1,500     1,540       366       411       112  
IL      :      162       152     1,300     1,350       211       205        97  
IN      :      140       139     1,280     1,300       179       181       101  
IA      :      250       250     1,315     1,325       329       331       101  
KY      :      158       151     1,030     1,020       163       154        94  
MD      :       91        85     1,250     1,290       114       110        96  
MI      :      326       324     1,400     1,430       456       463       102  
MN      :      600       595     1,315     1,345       789       800       101  
MO      :      186       175     1,160     1,100       216       193        89  
NM      :      194       197     1,550     1,630       301       321       107  
NY      :      702       700     1,380     1,310       969       917        95  
NC      :       86        78     1,330     1,385       114       108        95  
OH      :      287       286     1,310     1,310       376       375       100  
PA      :      647       643     1,370     1,365       886       878        99  
TN      :      120       113     1,180     1,210       142       137        96  
TX      :      400       390     1,310     1,325       524       517        99  
VT      :      157       156     1,350     1,340       212       209        99  
VA      :      128       126     1,250     1,230       160       155        97  
WA      :      264       266     1,620     1,640       428       436       102  
WI      :    1,478     1,418     1,255     1,270     1,855     1,801        97  
        :                                                                       
22 State:                                                                       
 Total  :    8,034     7,937     1,380     1,394    11,088    11,063       100  
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
1/  Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh.                          
2/  Excludes milk sucked by calves.                                             
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
        Milk Cows and Production:  By State,  November 1995-96 1/               
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
        :    Milk Cows  2/   :  Milk per Cow  3/ :     Milk Production 3/       
        :---------------------------------------------------------------------- 
 State  :          :         :         :         :         :         : 1996 as  
        :   1995   :  1996   :  1995   :  1996   :  1995   :  1996   :   % of   
        :          :         :         :         :         :         :   1995   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
        :    ---- 1,000 ----         Pounds          Million Pounds    Percent  
        :                                                                       
CA      :    1,258     1,268     1,615     1,710     2,032     2,168       107  
FL      :      155       157     1,160     1,230       180       193       107  
ID      :      242       266     1,470     1,500       356       399       112  
IL      :      162       153     1,250     1,290       203       197        97  
IN      :      143       140     1,240     1,250       177       175        99  
IA      :      250       250     1,310     1,260       328       315        96  
KY      :      159       151       960       960       153       145        95  
MD      :       91        85     1,175     1,230       107       105        98  
MI      :      326       325     1,340     1,360       437       442       101  
MN      :      600       595     1,220     1,250       732       744       102  
MO      :      186       175     1,100     1,055       205       185        90  
NM      :      196       195     1,460     1,565       286       305       107  
NY      :      702       700     1,335     1,260       937       882        94  
NC      :       86        79     1,290     1,290       111       102        92  
OH      :      287       285     1,270     1,230       364       351        96  
PA      :      647       642     1,310     1,310       848       841        99  
TN      :      123       112     1,090     1,150       134       129        96  
TX      :      400       395     1,200     1,205       480       476        99  
VT      :      158       155     1,280     1,285       202       199        99  
VA      :      128       126     1,205     1,170       154       147        95  
WA      :      264       266     1,570     1,600       414       426       103  
WI      :    1,480     1,423     1,200     1,220     1,776     1,736        98  
        :                                                                       
22 State:                                                                       
 Total  :    8,043     7,943     1,320     1,342    10,616    10,662       100  
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
1/  1996 revised.  2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh.        
3/  Excludes milk sucked by calves.                                             
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
         Milk Cows and Production:  By State and United States                  
                       Revised July-September  1995-1996                        
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
        :     Jul-Sep Milk Cows 1/     :  Jul-Sep Milk Production 2/ :  1996    
 State  :------------------------------------------------------------: as % of  
        :     1995      :     1996     :    1995      :     1996     :  1995    
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
        :            ---- 1,000 ----            -- Million Pounds --   Percent  
        :                                                                       
AL      :            33             31            101             88        87  
AK      :           0.7            0.8           3.05           3.56       117  
AZ      :           114            120            488            515       106  
AR      :            60             56            174            162        93  
CA      :         1,255          1,263          6,400          6,447       101  
CO      :            82             83            385            411       107  
CT      :            31             30            126            118        94  
DE      :            10             10           32.9           33.4       102  
FL      :           162            156            518            512        99  
GA      :           100             97            339            322        95  
HI      :          10.2            9.3           34.5           32.4        94  
ID      :           236            260          1,103          1,251       113  
IL      :           162            158            625            619        99  
IN      :           143            140            546            529        97  
IA      :           250            250          1,009            955        95  
KS      :            82             80            275            280       102  
KY      :           162            151            487            436        90  
LA      :            79             77            194            177        91  
ME      :            40             40            163            163       100  
MD      :            92             86            311            317       102  
MA      :            28             27            112            109        97  
MI      :           326            327          1,394          1,365        98  
MN      :           600            600          2,289          2,295       100  
MS      :            54             50            153            142        93  
MO      :           188            176            625            568        91  
MT      :            21             20             80             78        98  
NE      :            74             69            274            255        93  
NV      :            23           25.5          105.8          119.9       113  
NH      :            20             19             81             79        98  
NJ      :            23             23             77             71        92  
NM      :           198            196            910            919       101  
NY      :           701            703          2,916          2,861        98  
NC      :            86             81            326            301        92  
ND      :            64             62            212            198        93  
OH      :           289            285          1,118          1,073        96  
OK      :            96             96            317            300        95  
OR      :            97             93            424            404        95  
PA      :           643            642          2,604          2,594       100  
RI      :           2.1            1.9            7.9            7.5        95  
SC      :            26             26             85             85       100  
SD      :           118            112            404            370        92  
TN      :           124            112            401            360        90  
TX      :           402            397          1,365          1,337        98  
UT      :            88             92            379            401       106  
VT      :           158            157            637            630        99  
VA      :           129            126            465            430        92  
WA      :           269            264          1,361          1,351        99  
WV      :            21             20             65             60        92  
WI      :         1,488          1,440          5,802          5,602        97  
WY      :             6            6.2             21           22.3       106  
        :                                                                       
US   3/ :         9,465          9,344         38,325         37,759        99  
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
1/  Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh.                          
2/  Excludes milk sucked by calves.                                             
3/  Milk cows will not add due to rounding.                                     
             Milk Cows and Production:  By State and United States              
                     Preliminary October-December  1995-96                      
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
        :     Oct-Dec Milk Cows 1/     :  Oct-Dec Milk Production 2/ :  1996    
 State  :------------------------------------------------------------: as % of  
        :      1995     :     1996     :     1995     :     1996     :  1995    
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
        :            ---- 1,000 ----            -- Million Pounds --   Percent  
        :                                                                       
AL      :            32             31            112            102        91  
AK      :           0.7            0.8           3.07           3.52       115  
AZ      :           113            120            555            593       107  
AR      :            59             56            174            165        95  
CA      :         1,258          1,267          6,252          6,544       105  
CO      :            82             84            389            413       106  
CT      :            31             29            129            116        90  
DE      :            10           10.4           36.2           39.3       109  
FL      :           156            157            547            578       106  
GA      :            98             98            363            364       100  
HI      :          10.3            9.6           31.3           27.8        89  
ID      :           242            266          1,089          1,226       113  
IL      :           162            154            617            608        99  
IN      :           142            140            539            535        99  
IA      :           250            250            990            966        98  
KS      :            83             81            295            305       103  
KY      :           159            151            477            450        94  
LA      :            79             78            210            204        97  
ME      :            39             39            156            157       101  
MD      :            91             85            329            321        98  
MA      :            27             27            110            106        96  
MI      :           326            325          1,349          1,363       101  
MN      :           600            595          2,277          2,300       101  
MS      :            53             49            161            158        98  
MO      :           186            175            628            566        90  
MT      :            20             20             77             77       100  
NE      :            72             69            273            264        97  
NV      :            23           25.5          103.2          119.9       116  
NH      :            20             18             82             74        90  
NJ      :            23             23             76             71        93  
NM      :           195            196            883            932       106  
NY      :           702            701          2,864          2,733        95  
NC      :            86             79            335            314        94  
ND      :            63             62            198            187        94  
OH      :           287            285          1,113          1,085        97  
OK      :            97             95            320            300        94  
OR      :            96             93            400            388        97  
PA      :           647            643          2,624          2,587        99  
RI      :           2.1            1.9            7.9            7.7        97  
SC      :            26             26             94             97       103  
SD      :           116            110            371            352        95  
TN      :           122            112            414            390        94  
TX      :           400            393          1,485          1,461        98  
UT      :            88             92            363            392       108  
VT      :           158            155            626            616        98  
VA      :           128            126            473            452        96  
WA      :           265            266          1,280          1,308       102  
WV      :            21             19             64             60        94  
WI      :         1,480          1,424          5,491          5,367        98  
WY      :           5.9            6.2           21.5           22.9       107  
        :                                                                       
US   3/ :         9,432          9,318         37,857         37,868       100  
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
1/  Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh.                          
2/  Excludes milk sucked by calves.                                             
3/  Milk cows will not add due to rounding.                                     
         Grain and Other Concentrates:  Quantity Fed Daily and Value            
                 By State and United States, January 1, 1996-97                 
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
            :Grain and Other Concentrates : Value per 100 Pounds of Concentrate 
   State    :  Fed Daily per Milk Cow     :   Ration Fed to Milk Cows           
            :------------------------------------------------------------------ 
            :     1996     :    1997      :      1996      :       1997         
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
            :        ----- Pounds -----               -------- Dollars -------- 
            :                                                                   
    AL      :       18.9            19.4              9.60                9.80  
    AK      :       19.5            19.5             13.80               14.60  
    AZ      :       22.0            24.0              8.75                8.25  
    AR      :       17.9            18.6              9.05                9.40  
    CA      :       20.0            20.5              8.70                8.50  
    CO      :       22.0            20.9              8.20                7.90  
    CT      :       17.5            17.5             10.20               11.00  
    DE      :       16.3            16.3              8.80                8.70  
    FL      :       23.0            28.0              8.30                7.70  
    GA      :       23.3            24.0              9.10                9.40  
    ID      :       24.0            24.0              7.80                7.70  
    IL      :       17.6            17.2              8.45                9.00  
    IN      :       16.9            16.9              8.15                9.40  
    IA      :       17.3            16.8              7.70                7.90  
    KS      :       20.0            19.0              8.50                8.00  
    KY      :       16.3            17.2              9.35               10.00  
    LA      :       20.0            19.0              9.15                9.90  
    ME      :       16.0            15.5             10.20               10.90  
    MD      :       16.2            16.4              8.80                8.90  
    MA      :       16.0            17.0             10.20               10.95  
    MI      :       18.5            18.5              7.80                7.80  
    MN      :       17.4            17.3              8.20                9.00  
    MS      :       17.1            18.1              8.80                9.70  
    MO      :       19.0            19.0              8.80                8.60  
    MT      :       18.0            17.7              7.80                8.40  
    NE      :       16.9            16.9              7.90                7.90  
    NV      :       20.0            21.9              8.80                9.75  
    NH      :       16.5            16.5             10.00               10.85  
    NJ      :       14.2            14.4              9.15               11.75  
    NM      :       26.0            27.0              7.60                7.50  
    NY      :       15.4            14.8              9.90               10.60  
    NC      :       18.3            18.7              9.90               10.10  
    ND      :       16.2            16.5              7.05                6.45  
    OH      :       16.8            17.7              8.80                9.10  
    OK      :       20.0            20.5              8.50                9.00  
    OR      :       20.0            18.5              9.40                9.70  
    PA      :       16.8            18.0              9.90               10.20  
    RI      :       15.0            15.5             10.50               11.00  
    SC      :       19.0            22.5              8.95                9.15  
    SD      :       16.0            17.9              7.40                7.10  
    TN      :       16.0            18.0             10.00               10.60  
    TX      :       23.1            21.6              8.60                9.30  
    UT      :       17.7            17.1              8.40                8.35  
    VT      :       16.0            17.0             10.20               10.65  
    VA      :       16.7            15.0              9.60               11.00  
    WA      :       19.5            21.0              8.90                9.30  
    WV      :       14.0            14.5              9.70               10.80  
    WI      :       17.9            18.1              7.60                7.50  
    WY      :       14.1            13.4              7.70                7.50  
            :                                                                   
    US      :       18.8            19.2              8.51                8.79  
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
                                                                                
                       Reliability Statement                                    
                                                                                
Survey Procedures:  Primary data used to determine these estimates were         
                    obtained from a sample of producers.  Individual States     
maintain a list of all known milk producers and information on the size of their
herd.  States use all known sources of producers to ensure that their lists are 
as complete as possible. Generally, all large producers and a sample of small   
producers are included in the survey.  Questionnaires are mailed to producers   
near the end of the month to obtain data for the first day of the month.        
Additional reports are obtained by telephone, as needed, to supplement the mail 
response.                                                                       
                                                                                
                                                                                
Estimation Procedures:  State offices prepare these estimates using survey      
                        indications, historic trends, and any available         
administrative data. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural
Statistics Board for reasonableness.                                            
                                                                                
                                                                                
Revision Policy:  Milk production, rate per cow, and number of cows are         
                  subject to revision the following month for monthly States or 
the following quarter for the quarterly States.  Normally, Federal Market Order 
sales are the main basis for revisions. However, data for all orders are not    
available in time for this revision.  Estimates are again subject to revisions  
in February each year based on additional administrative data.  In the event    
that additional changes are necessary, a third revision is possible in February 
the following year.  Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five-year 
Census of Agriculture, conducted by the Department of Commerce, are available.  
No revisions are made after that date.                                          
                                                                                
                                                                                
Reliability:  Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in the   
              sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability.     
Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions,       
duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The
effects of these errors cannot be measured directly.  They are minimized through
rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful     
review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness.                 
                                                                                
To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report,  
the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the table below.    
The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance 
and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates.  The   
"Root Mean Square Error" for milk cow inventory estimates over the past 10      
quarters is 1.3 percent.  This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final 
October-December estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of    
9.32 million head by more than 1.3 percent, or about 121,000 head.  Chances are 
9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 2.3 percent, or about 214,000   
head (the 90 percent confidence level).                                         
                                                                                
               Reliability of October-December Milk Estimates 1/                
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
             :        :              :    Difference Between    :               
             :        :              :      First and Final     :    Number of  
             :  Root  :     90%      :         Estimates  1/    :    Quarters   
    Item     :  Mean  :  Confidence  :------------------------------------------
             : Square :    Level     :        :         :       : First : First 
             :  Error :              : Average: Smallest:Largest: Above : Below 
             :        :              :        :         :       : Final : Final 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             :   - Percent -     ---------- Mil Lbs. ----------     - Number -  
             :                                                                  
Milk         :   0.8     1.4     530     218       22      565     10       0   
  Production :                                                                  
             :                  --------- 1,000 Head ----------                 
                                                                                
             :                                                                  
All Milk     :   1.3     2.3     214     123       42      195     10       0   
  Cows       :                                                                  
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/  Based on records for the past 10 October-December quarters.                 
The next "Milk Production" report will be released at 3 P.M. ET on              
February 14, 1997.                                                              
                                                                                
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employment opportunity employer.                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
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          USDA Announces Agricultural Outlook Forum  97                         
                     February 24 and 25, 1997                                   
              Omni Shoreham Hotel, Washington, D.C.                             
                                                                                
An era of freer markets under the 1996 Farm Bill has begun.  For an expert      
assessment of the impact, attend the Outlook Forum.  Top speakers will discuss  
the 1997 farm outlook, prospects to 2005, risk management, concentration        
issues, market stability, world food security, marketing high-valued exports    
and more.  Plan now to attend.   For program and registration details, check    
Forum home page, call (202) 720-3050 or dial (202) 219-0296 from your fax       
machine and request document 66666.   Send e-mail to agforum@oce.usda.gov.      
                                                                                
Get news from the Forum.  Can't attend? After the Forum, download speeches      
from the Internet. Or, call 1-800-999-6779 to place an advance order for the    
printed proceedings (YCON-97) or new long term projections to 2005 (WAOB-97-1). 
                                                                                
  Ag Forum home page:  http://www.usda.gov/oce/waob/agforum.htm                 
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                           Agricultural                                         
                             Outlook                                            
                            Forum  97