Da 1-1  (3-99)
 
 
 
Milk
Production
 
National
Agricultural
Statistics
Service
 
 
 
 
USDA
Washington, D.C.
 
 
Released March 16, 1999, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS),
Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture.  For information
on "Milk Production" call James Hand at 202-690-3236, office hours 7:00 a.m. to
4:30 p.m. ET.
 
 
 
           February Milk Production Up 4.3 Percent
 
Milk production in the 20 major States during February totaled 10.8 billion
pounds, up 4.3 percent from production in these same States in February 1998.
January revised production, at 11.7 billion pounds was up 3.5  percent from
January 1998.
 
 
Production per cow in the 20 major States averaged 1,407 pounds for February,
60  pounds above February 1998.
 
 
The number of cows on farms in the 20 major States was 7.70 million head,
16,000 head less than February 1998 and 4,000 head less than January 1999.
 
 
 
 
        Milk Cows and Production:  By Quarter, United States, 1998-99 1/
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          :   Milk Cows 2/    :  Milk Per Cow 3/  :     Milk Production 3/
          :---------------------------------------------------------------------
  Quarter :         :         :         :         :         :         : Change
          :  1998   :  1999   :  1998   :  1999   :  1998   :  1999   :  From
          :         :         :         :         :         :         :  1998
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          :   1,000 Head        --- Pounds --        Million Pounds     Percent
          :
Jan-Mar   :  9,176               4,268               39,164
Apr-Jun   :  9,171               4,451               40,821
Jul-Sep   :  9,149               4,210               38,519
Oct-Dec   :  9,137               4,261               38,937
          :
Annual    :  9,158              17,192              157,441
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/  May not add due to rounding.
2/  Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh.
3/  Excludes milk sucked by calves.
 
 
        Milk Cows and Production:  By Month, 20 Selected States, 1998-99
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          :   Milk Cows 1/    :  Milk Per Cow 2/  :     Milk Production 2/
          :---------------------------------------------------------------------
   Month  :         :         :         :         :         :         : Change
          :  1998   :  1999   :  1998   :  1999   :  1998   :  1999   :  From
          :         :         :         :         :         :         :  1998
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          :     1,000 Head      ---- Pounds ----     Million Pounds     Percent
          :
Jan       :  7,728     7,704     1,466     1,521     11,327   11,720      3.5
Feb       :  7,716     7,700     1,347     1,407     10,394   10,836      4.3
Mar       :  7,709               1,515               11,678
Apr       :  7,713               1,501               11,579
May       :  7,719               1,556               12,011
Jun       :  7,718               1,477               11,396
Jul       :  7,709               1,468               11,314
Aug       :  7,708               1,443               11,124
Sep       :  7,701               1,386               10,672
Oct       :  7,695               1,446               11,125
Nov       :  7,697               1,407               10,829
Dec       :  7,708               1,489               11,481
          :
Annual    :  7,710              17,501              134,930
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/  Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh.
2/  Excludes milk sucked by calves.
 
 
               Estimated Milk Production:  United States, 1998-99
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
            :             By Month             :           Cumulative
            :-------------------------------------------------------------------
    Month   :         :           :   Change   :         :         :   Change
            :  1998   :   1999    :    From    :  1998   :  1999   :    From
            :         :           :    1998    :         :         :    1998
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
            :   Million Pounds       Percent      Million Pounds      Percent
            :
Jan         : 13,282     13,743        3.5        13,282   13,743       3.5
Feb         : 12,188     12,706        4.3        25,470   26,449       3.8
Mar         : 13,694                              39,164
Apr         : 13,510                              52,674
May         : 14,015                              66,689
Jun         : 13,296                              79,985
Jul         : 13,162                              93,147
Aug         : 12,942                             106,089
Sep         : 12,415                             118,504
Oct         : 12,956                             131,460
Nov         : 12,611                             144,071
Dec         : 13,370                             157,441
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 
 
 
 
              Milk Cows and Production:  By State, February 1998-99
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          :   Milk Cows 1/    :  Milk Per Cow 2/  :     Milk Production 2/
          :---------------------------------------------------------------------
   Month  :         :         :         :         :         :         : Change
          :  1998   :  1999   :  1998   :  1999   :  1998   :  1999   :  From
          :         :         :         :         :         :         :  1998
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          :     1,000 Head       ---- Pounds ---     Million Pounds     Percent
          :
AZ        :    130       132     1,660     1,835       216       242     12.0
CA        :  1,405     1,448     1,480     1,560     2,079     2,259      8.7
FL        :    160       158     1,300     1,335       208       211      1.4
ID        :    283       306     1,490     1,490       422       456      8.1
IL        :    129       125     1,310     1,310       169       164     -3.0
IN        :    134       136     1,260     1,300       169       177      4.7
IA        :    224       215     1,320     1,380       296       297      0.3
KY        :    143       135       965       970       138       131     -5.1
MI        :    296       301     1,370     1,415       406       426      4.9
MN        :    555       545     1,320     1,400       733       763      4.1
MO        :    175       164     1,090     1,150       191       189     -1.0
NM        :    216       220     1,480     1,615       320       355     10.9
NY        :    698       702     1,280     1,340       893       941      5.4
OH        :    265       260     1,310     1,340       347       348      0.3
PA        :    625       615     1,365     1,375       853       846     -0.8
TX        :    365       340     1,290     1,400       471       476      1.1
VT        :    162       162     1,285     1,320       208       214      2.9
VA        :    125       122     1,175     1,190       147       145     -1.4
WA        :    250       248     1,605     1,695       401       420      4.7
WI        :  1,376     1,366     1,255     1,300     1,727     1,776      2.8
          :
20-State  :
 Total    :  7,716     7,700     1,347     1,407    10,394    10,836      4.3
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/  Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh.
2/  Excludes milk sucked by calves.
 
 
 
 
             Milk Cows and Production:  By State, January 1998-99 1/
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          :   Milk Cows 2/    :  Milk per Cow 3/  :     Milk Production 3/
          :---------------------------------------------------------------------
   State  :         :         :         :         :         :         : Change
          :  1998   :  1999   :  1998   :  1999   :  1998   :  1999   :  From
          :         :         :         :         :         :         :  1998
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          :     1,000 Head       ---- Pounds ---     Million Pounds     Percent
          :
AZ        :    130       132     1,800     1,910       234       252      7.7
CA        :  1,402     1,443     1,670     1,690     2,341     2,439      4.2
FL        :    160       158     1,375     1,410       220       223      1.4
ID        :    283       304     1,640     1,660       464       505      8.8
IL        :    130       125     1,400     1,430       182       179     -1.6
IN        :    135       137     1,370     1,380       185       189      2.2
IA        :    225       220     1,440     1,515       324       333      2.8
KY        :    145       135     1,035     1,045       150       141     -6.0
MI        :    298       301     1,480     1,545       441       465      5.4
MN        :    555       545     1,420     1,505       788       820      4.1
MO        :    175       165     1,155     1,240       202       205      1.5
NM        :    216       220     1,510     1,740       326       383     17.5
NY        :    700       702     1,380     1,440       966     1,011      4.7
OH        :    265       260     1,430     1,440       379       374     -1.3
PA        :    625       617     1,495     1,475       934       910     -2.6
TX        :    368       340     1,340     1,480       493       503      2.0
VT        :    163       162     1,385     1,440       226       233      3.1
VA        :    125       122     1,295     1,295       162       158     -2.5
WA        :    250       248     1,745     1,860       436       461      5.7
WI        :  1,378     1,368     1,360     1,415     1,874     1,936      3.3
          :
20-State  :
 Total    :  7,728     7,704     1,466     1,521    11,327    11,720      3.5
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/  1999 revised.
2/  Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh.
3/  Excludes milk sucked by calves.
 
 
 
 
                       Reliability Statement
 
Survey Procedures:  Primary data used to determine these estimates were
obtained from a sample of producers.  Individual States maintain a list of all
known milk producers and information on the size of their herd.  States use all
known sources of producers to ensure that their lists are as complete as
possible. Generally, all large producers and a sample of small producers are
included in the survey.  Questionnaires are mailed to producers near the end of
the month to obtain data for the first day of the month.  Additional reports
are obtained by telephone, as needed, to supplement the mail response.
 
 
Estimation Procedures:  State offices prepare these estimates using survey
indications, historic trends, and any available administrative data. Individual
State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board for
reasonableness.
 
 
Revision Policy:  Milk production, rate per cow, and number of cows are subject
to revision the following month for monthly States or the following quarter for
the quarterly States.  Normally, Federal Market Order sales are the main basis
for revisions. However, data for all orders are not available in time for this
revision.  Estimates are again subject to revisions in February each year based
on additional administrative data.  In the event that additional changes are
necessary, a third revision is possible in February the following year.
Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five-year Census of
Agriculture are available. No revisions are made after that date.
 
 
Reliability:  Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in the
sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results
are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and
mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these
errors cannot be measured directly.  They are minimized through rigid quality
controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all
reported data for consistency and reasonableness.
 
 
To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report,
the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items on the next page. The
"Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and
is computed using the differences between first and final estimates.  The "Root
Mean Square Error" for milk cow inventory estimates over the past 10 quarters
is 1.3 percent.  This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final
October-December estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of
9.14 million head by more than 1.3 percent, or about 119,000 head.  Chances are
9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 2.3 percent, or about 210,000
head (the 90 percent confidence level).
 
 
 
                Reliability of October-December Milk Estimates 1/
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             :       :                :   Difference Between    :   Quarters
             : Root  :      90%       :    First and Latest     :---------------
             : Mean  :   Confidence   :        Estimates        : First : First
     Item    :Square :     Level      :-------------------------: Above : Below
             : Error :                :Average:Smallest:Largest :Latest :Latest
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             :    Percent       ------- Million Pounds ------        Number
             :
Milk         :
  Production :  0.6     1.1     428      183      1       385      10       0
             :    Percent       --------- 1,000 Head --------         Number
             :
All Milk     :
  Cows       :  1.3     2.3     210      102      2       195       9       1
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/  Based on records for the past 10 October-December quarters.
 
 
 
The next "Milk Production" report will be released at 3 p.m. ET on April 15,
1999.
 
 
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