UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR 


BUREAU OF LAND MANAGEMENT 


1U1IOM9N(j S'r:llrE fYPF9C'E 

'KES'EtR..,Y09tR.., M:IlN:Il(j'E'MENT(jROUfJ 

Revised Activity and Surface Disturbance Projections for 

the Reasonable Foreseeable Development Scenario for Oil 

and Gas Activities on Bureau Managed Lands in the North 

Dakota Study Area 

February 25, 2011 

Prepared By: 

/(#- / / S~ature 

rfJ~ Signature 

JL1LikL. 

Signature 

Alfred M. Elser, Ph.D. 

Name 

Dean P. Stilwell 

Name 

Stan W. Davis-Lawrence 

Name 

Geologist 

Title 

7-;/· hb.- 2011 

Date 

Geologist PG-l 070 

Title 

o?L2-U2P1 { 

Date 

Petroleum Engineer 

Title 

zI4~"ate 

Reviewed By: 

O~~ Signature 

1. David Chase 


Name 


Chief, Reservoir Management 


Group 


Title 


Date 

Management Approval: 

}~ 1. David Chase 


Name 


Chief, Reservoir Management 


Group 


Title 


• ,-l $'"- I ( 

Date 
 

 

 

REVISED ACTIVITY AND SURFACE
 

DISTURBANCE PROJECTIONS FOR THE
 

REASONABLE FORESEEABLE DEVELOPMENT 

SCENARIO FOR OIL AND GAS ACTIVITIES ON 

BUREAU MANAGED LANDS IN THE NORTH
 

DAKOTA STUDY AREA
 

Image from the North Dakota Study Area stratigraphic chart, Bureau files. 

ALFRED M. ELSER, Ph.D. 

DEAN P. STILWELL, and 

STAN W. DAVIS-LAWRENCE 

UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR 

BUREAU OF LAND MANAGEMENT 

FINAL 

February 25, 2011 
TABLE OF CONTENTS
 

Discussion....................................................................................................................... 2
 

Methodology............................................................................................................... 2
 

Revised Activity and Surface Disturbance Projections .............................................. 3
 

Estimated Future Oil and Gas Production .................................................................. 5
 

References....................................................................................................................... 6
 

List of Figures................................................................................................................. 7
 

List of Tables .................................................................................................................. 7
 

1
 
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Revised Activity and Surface Disturbance Projections for the 

Reasonable Foreseeable Development Scenario for Oil and Gas
 

Activities on Bureau Managed Lands in the North Dakota
 

Study Area1
 

Discussion 

The final report of the Reasonable Foreseeable Development Scenario for Oil and Gas 

Activities on Bureau Managed Lands in the North Dakota Study Area (Final Report) was 

submitted to the Montana State Office on October 2, 2009. During the months that 

followed, new developments in well drilling and completion techniques allowed for 

operators to effectively target the Three Forks Formation in a manner similar to that 

employed in the most recent Bakken play (see discussion in final report). Since this Three 

Forks play was not foreseen to be as productive or as attractive a drilling target as it 

became, a supplement to the Final Report was made. 

Methodology2 

The first step in determining how to revise the projected activity and disturbance 

estimates involved a new poll of the operators in the Study Area who were actively 

drilling the Three Forks Formation. A list of operators was obtained from the North 

Dakota Field Office. Each operator was contacted by telephone and asked what 

additional development activity they anticipated during the Planning Period as it related 

to the Three Forks, and where they anticipated development occurring. A new 

development potential map was produced based on the original work included in the 

Final Report and the new information gathered from these operators (Figure S1). 

During the course of the operator polling it became apparent that not only would the 

activity projections need to be revised, but also the method for calculating the associated 

surface disturbance. In the Final Report we had originally tied surface disturbance to 

individual wells. Each well had an associated initial and interim disturbance acreage 

which varied type of well (exploratory, existing, oil, gas, or coalbed gas). However, many 

of the Three Forks wells anticipated to be drilled by the polled operators are expected to 

be co-located with new or existing Bakken wells, and/or drilled from multi-well pads. 

Resultantly, the method for calculating disturbance was revised. Instead of a per well 

disturbance figure, calculations were made per well pad (Tables S1 and S2). 

Polling of active operators conducted in May, 2010 indicated areas of activity where 

development is expected to occur with an average of 1.5 wells per well pad. The areas are 

1 This document is a supplement to the Reasonable Foreseeable Development Scenario for Oil and Gas 

Activities on Bureau Managed Lands in the North Dakota Study Area (Stilwell, et al., 2009). 2 The reader is encouraged to refer to the Final Report for a detailed discussion of the general methodology 

used in determining development and surface disturbance projections. Only the deviations from the original 

method are discussed in this report. 

2
 
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

where either the Bakken or Three Forks new exploratory oil well development is 

expected to include some multi-pad drilling for either Three Forks or Bakken oil, as well 

as areas where existing or new Bakken wells will be co-located with Three Forks wells. It 

is important to note that 1.5 wells per pad is the anticipated average, and that some well 

pads may have far more than the average (as many as eight according to one operator's 

estimate), but many more will be single-well pads. These areas are shown on the 

development potential map (Figure S1) and include lands in both the High and Very High 

development potential categories. 

Revised Activity and Surface Disturbance Projections 

Since the revisions to the Final Report only include changes to projected development 

associated with the Three Forks and Bakken oil plays, the original projections related to 

gas and coalbed gas activity have remained unchanged. These projections are included on 

Table S1 and S2. It should be noted, however, that these tables differ from the 

corresponding tables in the Final Report (Tables 5, 8a and 8b)345 in that the total number 

of well pads are presented, and not individual wells. For gas and coalbed gas these are 

considered interchangeable as the average well pad for these types of development is 

expected to be associated with only one well. Such is not the case for new exploratory oil 

wells, however. 

Included in the original Table 8 from the Final Report were wells projected to be drilled 

from August 2008 through December 2009. This category was necessary at the time 

because the Planning Period was to start in January 2010, and the most current drilling 

data was only available through August 2008 at the time of the initial writing. Since this 

supplement/revision was prepared after December 2009 and drilling data was available 

for the August 2008 to December 2009 time period, this category was dropped from the 

revised table as any wells drilled during that time are now considered historic and not 

part of future projections. Well data was downloaded from IHS Energy that included 

wells spud through August, 2010 in order to obtain an accurate account of existing active 

gas wells and active oil wells for Table S2a (IHS Energy Group, 2010). 

Oil wells are the primary category in which revisions to the Final Report were needed. 

The vast majority of existing active oil wells at the time of the revision were single well 

pads. No changes were made to this category in the table except to update the actual 

number based on the new data download mentioned above. 

Multi-well pads associated with new exploratory oil development will have slightly 

larger initial surface disturbance (4.2 acres/pad) than the single well pads (4.0 acres/pad). 

3 Table 5. Estimated oil and gas (excluding coalbed gas) development potential classification acres,
 

number of townships, projected average drilling densities, and percentage of the North Dakota Study Area 

within each development potential classification type for the period 2010 through 2029.

4 Table 8a. Disturbance Associated With Existing Well Pads and Projected Active Well Pads for the
 

Baseline Scenario (Short-Term Disturbance). 5 Table 8b. Disturbance Associated With Existing Well Pads and Projected Producing Well Pads for the 

Baseline Scenario (Long-Term Disturbance).
 

3
 
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Access road disturbance will remain the same. Based on information provided by the 

North Dakota Field Office, operator input, current drilling trends, and institutional 

knowledge, areas of Very High development potential are expected to average 30 pads 

per township. Similarly, areas of High development potential are expected to average 15 

pads per township (Table S1). 

Tables S2a and S2b project short-term and long-term disturbance associated with existing 

wells and projected drilling activity for 2010 through 2029. The method used to 

determine the number of new wells drilled during this period has been previously 

discussed here and in the Final Report. In addition, we assumed that: 

•	 of the existing active wells, eight gas wells and 879 oil wells will be abandoned 

by December 2029, 

•	 the success rate of new coalbed gas wells will be 90 percent, 

•	 the success rate of new noncoalbed gas wells will be 93 percent as determined by 

the previous 20 years of drilling history, and 

•	 the success rate for new oil pads will average 78 percent for single-well pads, and 

88 percent for multi-well pads. 

The rationale behind these success rates is discussed in detail in the Final Report with the 

exception of the rate for new multi-oil well pads.6 Multi-well pads are expected to have a 

greater success rate than for single-well pads as only one of the multiple wells need be a 

productive well for the well pad to remain in the long-term. Based on the assumptions 

outlined in the Final Report and regional data comparing the success rates of multi-well 

versus single-well pads, a success rate ten percent greater than that for single-well pads is 

used. This amounts to 88 percent. 

Table S2a shows our projection of new exploratory and development well pads (6,765 

pads with 727 of those managed by the Bureau) that could be constructed in the Study 

Area from 2010-2029. The number of associated wells would be 8,460 total new 

exploratory and development wells with 921 managed by the Bureau. There are an 

additional 6,971 existing active wells/pads (211 gas and 6,760 oil) (IHS Energy Group, 

2010). Of those existing wells/pads, 972 total wells (121 gas, and 851 oil wells) are 

Bureau managed. Table S2a also calculates associated acres of total surface disturbance 

(short-term disturbance) directly associated with all new and existing well pads. 

Approximately 66,806 acres of new and existing short-term surface disturbance (7,945 

acres of disturbance on Bureau managed lands) could occur if all 6,765 projected wells 

are drilled. 

Table S2b calculates new producing well pads remaining active after all new exploratory 

and development wells are drilled and all dry holes are abandoned and reclaimed (5,711 

total new well pads with 602 of those pads on Bureau managed lands). There are an 

additional 6,084 existing well pads (857 on Bureau managed lands) that will remain 

active after some formerly existing producing wells cease to be productive and are 

6 In the Final Report, the success rate for new exploratory oil wells is presented as 78 percent. Since singlewell pads were assumed in the Final Report, this success rate was used in the revision for new exploratory 

single-oil well pads. 

4
 
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

abandoned. Table S2b also calculates unreclaimed associated acres of total surface 

disturbance (long-term disturbance) directly associated with all remaining well pads. 

Approximately 17,405 acres of new unreclaimed surface disturbance (1,945 acres of 

unreclaimed Bureau managed lands) could remain in the long-term. Total unreclaimed 

long-term surface disturbance (for all well types) would be 36,631 acres, with 4,499 of 

those acres on Bureau managed lands. 

Estimated Future Oil and Gas Production 

As indicated above, we projected 8,460 wells (not including coalbed gas wells) would be 

drilled within the analysis period of 2010 through 2029. A table projecting wells spud by 

year, for the 2010 through 2029 period, was calculated along with a confidence interval 

of values (Table S3). These values were determined by using a GNU Octave program 

that was written to statistically analyze the available historical drilling and production 

data constrained by oil and gas futures prices and projected drilling activities (8,460 new 

wells in 20 years) to generate the values in Table S3. Although Table S3 projects a range 

of new wells that could be drilled each year, the mean value projected should be 

considered the most likely scenario for new drilling in any one year and cumulatively for 

the 20-year period. Yearly drilling projections are provided for analysis purposes only. 

The likelihood that the mean well projection in any given year will match actual activity 

is low. As stated earlier, we expect that if coalbed gas drilling does occur that activity 

will only come about toward the end of the 20-year assessment period and drilling will be 

in groups of 16 to 25 wells. 

Table S4 is our forecast of hydrocarbon production for 20 years beyond 2009. Both gas 

and oil production will increase during the period. The cumulative values listed are just 

for the 2010 through 2029 projection period and ignore historical production. Of the 

64,743,748 barrels of forecasted cumulative oil production, about 7,575,019 barrels are 

projected to come from Bureau managed oil and gas minerals. Of the 1,740,974,343,000 

cubic feet of forecasted cumulative gas production, about 480,508,918,668 cubic feet are 

projected to come from Bureau managed oil and gas minerals. 

As with the Final Report, coalbed gas production was not assessed. If any coalbed gas 

production does come online during the 20-year assessment period it will only be a minor 

part of the total hydrocarbon production between 2010 and 2029. 

5
 
References 

IHS Energy Group, 2010, Rocky Mountain US Well Data: Network License for 

PI/Dwights PLUS Version 1.7. 

Stilwell, D.E., Elser, A.M., and Davis-Lawrence, S.W., 2009, Reasonable Foreseeable 

Development Scenario for Oil and Gas Activities on Bureau Managed Lands in 

the North Dakota Study Area: U.S. Department of the Interior, Bureau of Land 

Management, Wyoming State Office. Available for download from 

http://www.blm.gov/mt/st/en/fo/north_dakota_field/rmp/RFD.html 

6
 
 

 

List of Figures 

Figure S1. Oil and gas (excluding coalbed gas) development potential and projected pad 

densities and associated wells within the North Dakota Study Area for 2010 through 

2029. 

List of Tables 

Table S1. Estimated oil and gas (excluding coalbed gas) development potential 

classification acres, number of townships, projected average drilling densities, and 

percentage of the North Dakota Study Area within each development potential 

classification type for the period 2010 through 2029. 

Table S2a. Disturbance Associated With Existing Well Pads and Projected Active Well 

Pads for the Baseline Scenario (Short-Term Disturbance). 

Table S2b. Disturbance Associated With Existing Well Pads and Projected Producing 

Well Pads for the Baseline Scenario (Long-Term Disturbance). 

Table S3. Annual projection of North Dakota Study Area Wells drilled from 2010 to 

2029 and their associated confidence interval. 

Table S4. Forecast of North Dakota Study Area annual and cumulative oil and gas 

production for 2010 through 2029. 

7
 
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Oil and gas (excluding coalbed gas) development potential and projected pad densities and associated wells within the North Dakota

Study Area for 2010 through 2029 

Figure S1.
 

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Study

Area
 

Conventional Oil and Gas Potential

(Pads per township during planning period 2010 to 2029)

Very High - greater than 20 pads 

1.5 wells per pad 

1 well per pad 

High - greater than 10 to 20 pads 

1.5 wells per pad 

1 well per pad 

Moderate - greater than 2 to 10 pads 

1 well per pad 

Low - greater than 1 to 2 pads 

1 well per pad 

Very Low - fewer than 1 pad 

1 well per pad 

Not Assessed (National Park Service) 

Tribal Lands 

0 25 50 Miles 

July, 2010 1:1,419,517 

Dean Stilwell, Geologist

Al Elser, Geologist No warranty is made by the Bureau of Land Management as to the accuracy, reliability, or completeness of these data for individual or aggregate use with other data. 

Stan Lawrence, Petroleum Engineer Original data was compiled from various sources. This information was developed through digital means and may be updated without notification. 
 

 

 

 

 

 

Table S1. Estimated oil and gas (excluding coalbed gas) development potential 

classification acres, number of townships, projected average drilling densities, and 

percentage of the North Dakota Study Area within each development potential 

classification type for the period 2010 through 2029. 

Development 

Potential 

Very High 

(1.5 wells/pad) 

Very High 

(1 well/pad) 

High 

(1.5 wells/pad) 

High 

(1 well/pad) 

Acres 

3,469,258 

622,928 

1,564,674 

1,195,994 

Area 

(townships) 

150.58 

27.04 

67.91 

51.91 

Average 

pads per 

township 

30.00 

30.00 

15.00 

15.00 

% of Study 

Area 

13.68 

2.46 

6.17 

4.72 

Moderate 3,581,305 155.44 6.00 14.12 

Low 5,865,171 254.56 1.50 23.13 

Very Low 9,059,101 393.19 0.05 35.72 

None 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 
Table S2a. Disturbance Associated With Existing Well Pads and Projected Active Well Pads for the Baseline 

Scenario (Short-Term Disturbance)
 

Well Pads/Wells Acres of Surface Disturbance 

 Type Total 

Pads 

Total 

Wells 

BLM 

Managed 

Pads 

BLM 

Managed 

Wells 

Access 

Roads Well Pad Total BLM Managed 

New Exploratory and 

Development Coalbed Gas 

(2010-2029) 

150 150 7 7 0.6 0.50 165 8 

New Exploratory and 

Development Gas (2010-2029) 315 315 34 34 0.6 0.50 347 40 

New Exploratory and 

Development Oil (1.5 

wells/pad) (2010-2029) 

3,691 5,537 402 602 2.9 4.20 26,206 2,945 

New Exploratory and 

Development Oil (1.0 

wells/pad) (2010-2029) 

2,609 2,609 284 284 2.9 4.00 18,002 2,023 

Total New Exploratory and 

Development Well 

Pads/Wells 

6,765 8,611 727 927 44,720 5,017 

Existing Active Gas (as of 

August 2010) 211 211 121 121 0.3 0.25 116 71 

Existing Active Oil (as of 

August 2010) 6,760 6,760 851 851 1.5 1.75 21,970 2,857 

Total Existing and Projected 

Well Pads/Wells 6,971 6,971 972 972 22,086 2,928 

Total Well Pads/Wells 13,736 15,582 1,699 1,899 66,806 7,945 Total Short-Term 

Disturbance 
Table S2b. Disturbance Associated With Existing Well Pads and Projected Producing Well Pads for the Baseline
 

Scenario (Long-Term Disturbance)
 

Well Pads/Wells Acres of Surface Disturbance 

Type Total 

Pads 

Total 

Wells 

BLM 

Managed 

Pads 

BLM 

Managed 

Wells 

Access 

Roads Well Pad Total BLM 

Managed 

New Producing Coalbed Gas 

(2010-2029) 135 135 6 6 0.3 0.25 74 4 

New Producing Gas (2010­

2029) 293 293 21 21 0.3 0.25 161 12 

New Producing Oil ( 1.5 

wells/pad) (2010-2029) 3,248 4,872 353 530 1.5 1.75 10,556 1,186 

New Producing Oil (1.0 

wells/pad) (2010-2029) 2,035 2,035 221 221 1.5 1.75 6,614 743 

Total New Producing Well 

Pads/Wells 5,711 7,335 602 778 17,405 1,945 

Existing Active Gas (as of 

August 2010)1 203 203 116 116 0.3 0.25 111 68 

Existing Active Oil (as of 

August 2010)1 5,881 5,881 740 740 1.5 1.75 19,114 2,486 

Total Existing and Projected 

Well Pads/Wells 6,084 6,084 857 857 19,225 2,554 

Total Well Pads/Wells 11,795 13,419 1,458 1,635 36,631 4,499 Total Long-Term 

Disturbance 

1

Minus projected abandonments during August 2010-December 2029 period. 
Table S3: Annual projection of North Dakota Study Area Wells drilled from 2010 to 2029 and 

their associated confidence interval. 

BASED ON 8,460 WELLS 

YEAR LOW MEAN HIGH
 

2010 636 730 911 

2011 507 571 696
 

2012 247 320 456 

2013 86 173 341
 

2014 287 373 539 

2015 334 413 566
 

2016 35 120 282 

2017 429 491 608
 

2018 146 229 390 

2019 209 294 457
 

2020 470 559 732 

2021 76 157 313
 

2022 234 328 508 

2023 365 452 621
 

2024 239 326 494 

2025 510 611 810
 

2026 870 961 1,144 

2027 435 517 678
 

2028 314 421 627 

2029 311 414 620
 

Total 6,740 8,460 11,793 
Table S4: Forecast of North Dakota Study Area annual and cumulative oil and gas production for 

2010 through 2029. 

BASED ON 8,460 WELLS 

YEAR ANNUAL 

OIL(bbls) 

CUM OIL 

(bbls) 

ANNUAL 

GAS(mcf) CUM GAS (mcf) 

2011 52,661,468 104,598,238 82,906,807 163,574,512 

2013 52,441,000 210,416,358 81,919,767 324,823,295 

2015 56,314,876 321,620,453 84,868,270 494,839,730 

2017 56,489,859 432,174,118 86,321,419 664,580,940 

2019 58,260,262 547,442,269 87,516,299 838,990,613 

2021 58,611,845 663,800,411 90,235,880 1,017,491,646 

2023 59,999,859 783,588,600 88,881,716 1,194,681,350 

2025 62,391,793 907,572,609 92,062,699 1,374,437,672 

2027 62,883,936 1,031,988,789 88,995,794 1,551,850,172 

2029 64,743,748 11,593,926,725 93,031,376 1,740,974,343 

2010 51,936,770 51,936,770 80,667,706 80,667,706 

2012 53,377,120 157,975,358 79,329,016 242,903,528 

2014 54,889,219 265,305,577 85,148,165 409,971,460 

2016 54,063,805 375,684,259 83,419,791 578,259,521 

2018 57,007,889 489,182,007 86,893,375 751,474,315 

2020 57,746,297 605,188,566 88,265,154 927,255,767 

2022 59,788,330 723,588,741 88,307,988 1,105,799,634 

2024 61,592,215 845,180,816 87,693,623 1,282,374,973 

2026 61,532,245 969,104,853 88,416,705 1,462,854,378 

2028 62,660,576 1,094,649,365 96,092,795 1,647,942,967