HDR1012000110080113971500POTATO STOCKS                                          
Potato                                                                          
Stocks                                                                          
National                                                                        
Agricultural                                                                    
Statistics                                                                      
Service                                                                         
                                                                                
USDA                                                                            
Washington, D.C.                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
Released January 13, 1997, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service      
(NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture.  For     
information on "Potato Stocks" call Arvin Budge at (202) 720-4285, office hours 
7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET.  For assistance with general agricultural statistics,
information about NASS, its products or services, contact the Agricultural      
Statistics Hotline at 1-800-727-9540 or E-mail: NASS@NASS.USDA.GOV.             
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                  Potato Stocks Jump 15 Percent                                 
                                                                                
                                                                                
Potato stocks totaled 257 million cwt in the 15 major storage States on January 
1, 1997.  This is up 15 percent from last year and 8 percent above two years    
ago.  Disappearance of potatoes this season totaled a record 185 million cwt    
from the start of harvest through December, up 9 percent from last year.        
Processing plants used 93.1 million cwt of raw product, a gain of 7 percent from
last year.                                                                      
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
Pot 1-2 (1-97)                                                                  
         Fall Potatoes:  Production and Stocks, 15 Major States, 1987-96        
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
   Crop  :          :         :         :         :         :         :         
   Year  :Production:  Dec 1  :  Jan 1  :  Feb 1  :  Mar 1  :  Apr 1  :  May 1  
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
         :                              1,000 Cwt                               
         :                                                                      
1987     : 335,607    225,890   196,760   167,325   138,800   105,905   70,030  
1988     : 305,623    206,420   177,750   151,050   124,485    92,585   59,355  
1989     : 316,097    202,050   173,550   144,290   116,600    84,320   50,675  
1990     : 344,200    225,500   194,460   162,850   134,470   101,150   63,040  
1991     : 363,541    242,070   211,005   178,515   145,820   108,865   69,110  
1992     : 368,516    246,820   215,990   184,560   152,795   115,785   75,040  
1993     : 375,004    249,710   217,800   186,090   154,135   115,970   73,860  
1994     : 408,139    272,290   237,960   201,870   168,050   128,360   87,500  
1995     : 392,942    256,310   223,150   188,960   155,720   116,255   76,170  
1996     : 441,083    291,300   256,520                                         
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
        Potatoes:  Quantity Used for Processing, Eight States, 1994-96 1/       
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
     State and     :        :        :        :       :       :       :         
     Crop Year     : Dec 1  : Jan 1  : Feb 1  : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 : Season  
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                   :                         1,000 Cwt                          
                   :                                                            
ID & OR-Malheur Co :                                                            
  1995             : 26,620   34,230   42,330   49,890  57,990  66,680   90,300 
  1996             : 27,310   35,040   43,260   51,530  59,060  66,690   89,250 
  1997             : 31,060   38,210                                            
                   :                                                            
ME 2/              :                                                            
  1995             :  1,505    1,840    2,265    2,540   2,985   3,330    4,770 
  1996             :  1,335    1,690    2,180    2,520   3,025   3,465    5,225 
  1997             :  1,400    1,725                                            
                   :                                                            
WA & OR - Other    :                                                            
  1995             : 28,670   33,480   39,120   46,070  52,940  59,540   76,780 
  1996             : 30,000   35,170   39,460   45,280  51,730  57,360   70,250 
  1997             : 31,650   36,590                                            
                   :                                                            
Oth Sts 3/         :                                                            
  1995             :  8,785   12,070   14,605   17,095  19,840  22,595   32,260 
  1996             : 12,450   15,330   18,415   21,485  24,910  28,010   33,305 
  1997             : 13,660   16,570                                            
                   :                                                            
Total              :                                                            
  1995             : 65,580   81,620   98,320  115,595 133,755 152,145  204,110 
  1996             : 71,095   87,230  103,315  120,815 138,725 155,525  198,030 
  1997             : 77,770   93,095                                            
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/  Total quantity received and used for processing regardless of the State in  
    which the potatoes were produced.  Amount excludes quantities used for      
    potato chips in ME, MI, MN, ND, and WI.                                     
2/  Includes Maine grown potatoes only.                                         
3/  MI, MN, ND, and WI.                                                         
                                                                                
         Fall Potatoes:  Production and Stocks on January 1, 1996-97            
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
               :         Crop of 1995      :        Crop of 1996                
               :--------------------------------------------------------------- 
     State     :         : Stocks :   %    :        : Stocks : Stocks : Jan %   
               :         : Jan 1, :   of   :        : Dec 1, : Jan 1, :   of    
               :  Prod   :  1996  :  Prod  :  Prod  : 1996 1/:  1997  :  Prod   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
               :   -- 1,000 Cwt --  Percent    ----- 1,000 Cwt -----    Percent 
               :                                                                
CA             :   5,330    3,500       66    4,600    3,600    3,000       65  
CO             :  23,808   16,100       68   28,786   22,800   20,500       71  
ID             : 132,657   85,000       64  139,960   99,000   89,000       64  
ME             :  17,160   12,400       72   21,175   16,900   15,300       72  
MI             :  16,350    8,300       51   13,800    8,000    6,600       48  
MN             :  20,790   11,700       56   24,600   16,500   14,900       61  
MT             :   2,940    2,700       92    3,213    3,050    2,950       92  
NE             :   3,680    2,300       63    4,402    3,160    2,800       64  
NY             :   7,695    2,500       32    7,980    3,700    2,500       31  
ND             :  25,410   14,000       55   28,820   20,000   17,000       59  
OH             :   1,404      150       11    1,275      290      170       13  
OR             :  24,788   14,100       57   31,684   25,000   22,500       71  
PA             :   4,080    1,900       47    4,208    2,800    1,800       43  
WA             :  80,850   35,000       43   94,990   48,000   42,000       44  
WI             :  26,000   13,500       52   31,590   18,500   15,500       49  
               :                                                                
Total 15 States: 392,942  223,150       57  441,083  291,300  256,520       58  
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
1/  Revised.                                                                    
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
           Fall Potatoes:  Stocks by Type as Percent of Total Stocks,           
                       11 Major States, January 1, 1996-97                      
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
       :                              Potato Types                              
       :------------------------------------------------------------------------
       :         Reds          :        Whites         :        Russets         
 State :------------------------------------------------------------------------
       :  Jan  :  Dec  :  Jan  :  Jan  :  Dec  :  Jan  :  Jan  :  Dec  :  Jan   
       : 1996  :1996 1/: 1997  : 1996  :1996 1/: 1997  : 1996  :1996 1/:  1997  
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
       :                                Percent                                 
       :                                                                        
CO     :   6       6       6                              94      94       94   
ID     :                          10      10      10      90      90       90   
ME     :   3       3       2      66      61      63      31      36       35   
MI     :           3       1      75      78      75      25      19       24   
MN     :  12      13      14      20      17      18      68      70       68   
NY     :   5       5       5      93      93      93       2       2        2   
ND     :  16      18      19      32      35      32      52      47       49   
OR     :   1       1       1       3       2       2      96      97       97   
PA     :   3       3       3      97      97      97                            
WA     :   1       2       1       3       6       3      96      92       96   
WI     :   2       4       5      27      19      25      71      77       70   
       :                                                                        
US     :   3       4       3      18      17      17      79      79       80   
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/  Revised.                                                                    
                   Potato Stocks Up 15 Percent                                  
                                                                                
                                                                                
The 15 major potato States held 257 million cwt of potatoes on January 1, 1997, 
up 15 percent from a year earlier and 8 percent above 1995.  Storage accounted  
for 58 percent of 1996 fall production up 1 point from last year.  Stocks by    
type were 3 percent red, 17 percent white, and 80 percent russet.               
                                                                                
                                                                                
Disappearance from the start of harvest to January 1 was a record 185 million   
cwt of potatoes, up 9 percent from the same period a year ago.  Disappearance in
December 1996 was 34.8 million cwt, up 5 percent from last year and 1 percent   
above two years ago.  Shrink and loss to date was estimated at 21.1 million cwt,
up 5 percent from last year.                                                    
                                                                                
                                                                                
Processing gained 7 percent to 93.1 million cwt so far this season and was      
14 percent above two years ago.  In December, processors used 15.3 million cwt  
of potatoes, down 5 percent from last year and 4 percent below two years ago.   
                                                                                
                                                                                
Eastern States stored 19.6 million cwt of potatoes on January 1, 1997, up       
17 percent from a year ago and 23 percent above 1995.  Maine's holdings were up 
23 percent, New York's storage stayed the same as last year, but Pennsylvania   
dropped 5 percent.                                                              
                                                                                
                                                                                
Central States accounted for 57.0 million cwt of potato stocks this January,    
14 percent above 1996 and 17 percent above 1995.  Minnesota's stocks gained     
27 percent, Nebraska's cellars held 22 percent more, and North Dakota's stocks  
jumped 21 percent.   Wisconsin's stocks were up 15 percent and Ohio gained      
13 percent.  Michigan's potato storage was off 20 percent from a year ago.      
                                                                                
                                                                                
Western States held 180 million cwt of potatoes in storage on January 1, 1997,  
up 15 percent from a year previous and 4 percent above two years ago.  Each of  
the Western storage States were above last year except California, where stocks 
dipped 14 percent.                                                              
                                                                                
Oregon is up 60 percent, Colorado's storage jumped 27 percent, and Washington   
stocks increased 20 percent from a year ago.  Idaho is up 5 percent.  These four
States account for 68 percent of U.S. potato stocks, and their combined stocks  
are 16 percent above last year.  Montana's stocks were up 9 percent.            
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
            Reliability of January 1 Stocks Estimates                           
                                                                                
                                                                                
The "Root Mean Square Error" for the January 1 stocks estimate is               
2.9 percent.  This means the chances are 2 out of 3 that the current estimate   
of 257 million cwt will not be above or below the final estimate by more        
than 2.9 percent or approximately 7.4 million cwt.  Chances are 9 out of 10     
(90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 4.9 percent   
or approximately 12.6 million cwt.                                              
                                                                                
The 10-year (1987-96) record of the differences between the January 1           
stocks estimates and the final estimates averaged 5.6 million cwt, ranging      
ranging from 0.70 million to 14.3 million cwt.  During the 10-year period,      
the January 1 estimate has been below the final estimate each year.             
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
           Fall Potato Stocks:  Preliminary and Final January Stocks,           
                             United States, 1986-96                             
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
   Crop   :      Preliminary      :        % of         :         Final         
   Year   :        Stocks         :        Final        :       Stocks 1/       
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          :       1,000 Cwt               Percent               1,000 Cwt       
          :                                                                     
1986      :        176,600                  97.6                 180,915        
1987      :        195,880                  99.6                 196,760        
1988      :        171,560                  96.5                 177,750        
1989      :        173,400                  99.9                 173,550        
1990      :        186,160                  95.7                 194,460        
1991      :        210,935                 100.0                 211,005        
1992      :        201,690                  93.4                 215,990        
1993      :        209,270                  96.1                 217,800        
1994      :        229,350                  96.4                 237,960        
1995      :        218,970                  98.1                 223,150        
1996      :        256,520                                                      
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/  As reported in the September "Potato" annual report.                        
                                                                                
                                                                                
Note:  Stocks are defined as the quantity (whether sold or not) remaining in    
       storage for all purposes and uses, including seed potatoes not yet moved 
       and shrinkage, waste, and other losses that occur after the date of each 
       report.  Sales of fall potatoes for all purposes for the past 5 years    
       averaged 90.5 percent of the total fall production shrinkage, loss and   
       home use account for the remaining 9.5 percent.  Most seed for use the   
       following year is on hand but remains as part of stocks until planted.   
The next "Potato Stocks" report will be released at 3:00 p.m. ET on February 13,
1997.                                                                           
                                                                                
                                                                                
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              Omni Shoreham Hotel, Washington, D.C.                             
                                                                                
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                           Agricultural                                         
                             Outlook                                            
                            Forum  97