Da 1-1  (7-99)


Milk
Production

National Agricultural Statistics Service
USDA
Washington, D.C.

Released July 15, 1999, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS),
Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture.  For information
on "Milk Production" call James Hand at 202-690-3236, office hours 7:00 a.m. to
4:30 p.m. ET.




                                 
             June Milk Production Up 3.4 Percent   

Milk production in the 20 major States during June totaled 11.8 billion pounds,
up 3.4 percent from production in these same States in June 1998.  May revised
production, at 12.4 billion pounds, was up 3.5  percent from May 1998.


Production per cow in the 20 major States averaged 1,525 pounds for June, 48
pounds above June 1998.


The number of cows on farms in the 20 major States was 7.73 million head,
11,000 head more than June 1998, and 4,000 head more than May 1999. 


             April-June Milk Production Up 3.0 Percent

The quarterly production of milk for the U.S. was 42.0 billion pounds, 3.0 
percent above the April-June period last year.   The average number of milk
cows in the U.S. during the April-June quarter was 9.15 million head, 20,000
head less  than the same period last year.




        Milk Cows and Production:  By Quarter, United States, 1998-99 1/
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          :   Milk Cows 2/    :  Milk Per Cow 3/  :     Milk Production 3/
          :---------------------------------------------------------------------
  Quarter :         :         :         :         :         :         : Change
          :  1998   :  1999   :  1998   :  1999   :  1998   :  1999   :  From
          :         :         :         :         :         :         :  1998
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          :     1,000 Head      ---- Pounds ----     Million Pounds     Percent
          :
Jan-Mar   :  9,176     9,136     4,268     4,437     39,164   40,540      3.5
Apr-Jun   :  9,171     9,151     4,451     4,593     40,821   42,034      3.0
Jul-Sep   :  9,149               4,210               38,519
Oct-Dec   :  9,137               4,261               38,937
          :
Annual    :  9,158              17,192              157,441
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/  May not add due to rounding.
2/  Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh.
3/  Excludes milk sucked by calves.


        Milk Cows and Production:  By Month, 20 Selected States, 1998-99
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          :   Milk Cows 1/    :  Milk Per Cow 2/  :     Milk Production 2/
          :---------------------------------------------------------------------
   Month  :         :         :         :         :         :         : Change
          :  1998   :  1999   :  1998   :  1999   :  1998   :  1999   :  From
          :         :         :         :         :         :         :  1998
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          :     1,000 Head      ---- Pounds ----     Million Pounds     Percent
          :
Jan       :  7,728     7,704     1,466     1,521     11,327   11,720      3.5
Feb       :  7,716     7,702     1,347     1,403     10,394   10,809      4.0
Mar       :  7,709     7,708     1,515     1,584     11,678   12,212      4.6
Apr       :  7,713     7,714     1,501     1,554     11,579   11,989      3.5
May       :  7,719     7,725     1,556     1,609     12,011   12,430      3.5
Jun       :  7,718     7,729     1,477     1,525     11,396   11,785      3.4
Jul       :  7,709               1,468               11,314
Aug       :  7,708               1,443               11,124
Sep       :  7,701               1,386               10,672
Oct       :  7,695               1,446               11,125
Nov       :  7,697               1,407               10,829
Dec       :  7,708               1,489               11,481
          :
Annual    :  7,710              17,501              134,930
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/  Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh.
2/  Excludes milk sucked by calves.


               Estimated Milk Production:  United States, 1998-99
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
            :             By Month             :           Cumulative
            :-------------------------------------------------------------------
    Month   :         :           :   Change   :         :         :   Change
            :  1998   :   1999    :    From    :  1998   :  1999   :    From
            :         :           :    1998    :         :         :    1998
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
            :   Million Pounds       Percent      Million Pounds      Percent
            :
Jan         : 13,282     13,676        3.0        13,282   13,676       3.0
Feb         : 12,188     12,613        3.5        25,470   26,289       3.2
Mar         : 13,694     14,251        4.1        39,164   40,540       3.5
Apr         : 13,510     13,920        3.0        52,674   54,460       3.4
May         : 14,015     14,431        3.0        66,689   68,891       3.3
Jun         : 13,296     13,683        2.9        79,985   82,574       3.2
Jul         : 13,162                              93,147
Aug         : 12,942                             106,089
Sep         : 12,415                             118,504
Oct         : 12,956                             131,460
Nov         : 12,611                             144,071
Dec         : 13,370                             157,441
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------




                Milk Cows and Production:  By State, June 1998-99
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          :   Milk Cows 1/    :  Milk Per Cow 2/  :     Milk Production 2/
          :---------------------------------------------------------------------
   Month  :         :         :         :         :         :         : Change
          :  1998   :  1999   :  1998   :  1999   :  1998   :  1999   :  From
          :         :         :         :         :         :         :  1998
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          :     1,000 Head       ---- Pounds ---     Million Pounds     Percent
          :
AZ        :    131       134     1,780     1,830       233       245      5.2
CA        :  1,417     1,464     1,635     1,725     2,317     2,525      9.0
FL        :    160       159     1,170     1,295       187       206     10.2
ID        :    293       316     1,660     1,670       486       528      8.6
IL        :    128       122     1,360     1,420       174       173     -0.6
IN        :    137       136     1,340     1,390       184       189      2.7
IA        :    222       215     1,433     1,460       318       314     -1.3
KY        :    141       133     1,000     1,000       141       133     -5.7
MI        :    303       291     1,515     1,530       459       445     -3.1
MN        :    555       545     1,425     1,485       791       809      2.3
MO        :    171       160     1,135     1,095       194       175     -9.8
NM        :    217       234     1,755     1,730       381       405      6.3
NY        :    701       702     1,430     1,470     1,002     1,032      3.0
OH        :    264       260     1,420     1,460       375       380      1.3
PA        :    623       614     1,435     1,495       894       918      2.7
TX        :    353       346     1,320     1,325       466       458     -1.7
VT        :    162       162     1,420     1,450       230       235      2.2
VA        :    125       121     1,185     1,225       148       148
WA        :    247       247     1,835     1,875       453       463      2.2
WI        :  1,368     1,368     1,435     1,465     1,963     2,004      2.1
          :
20-State  :
 Total    :  7,718     7,729     1,477     1,525    11,396    11,785      3.4
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/  Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh.
2/  Excludes milk sucked by calves.




               Milk Cows and Production:  By State, May 1998-99 1/
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          :   Milk Cows 2/    :  Milk per Cow 3/  :     Milk Production 3/
          :---------------------------------------------------------------------
   State  :         :         :         :         :         :         : Change
          :  1998   :  1999   :  1998   :  1999   :  1998   :  1999   :  From
          :         :         :         :         :         :         :  1998
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          :     1,000 Head       ---- Pounds ---     Million Pounds     Percent
          :
AZ        :    130       134     1,945     2,060       253       276      9.1
CA        :  1,414     1,460     1,720     1,820     2,432     2,657      9.3
FL        :    162       160     1,350     1,405       219       225      2.7
ID        :    293       314     1,680     1,710       492       537      9.1
IL        :    128       123     1,510     1,490       193       183     -5.2
IN        :    137       136     1,420     1,400       195       190     -2.6
IA        :    223       215     1,520     1,550       339       333     -1.8
KY        :    141       133     1,115     1,120       157       149     -5.1
MI        :    299       293     1,560     1,600       466       469      0.6
MN        :    555       545     1,490     1,550       827       845      2.2
MO        :    172       161     1,285     1,305       221       210     -5.0
NM        :    217       232     1,795     1,795       390       416      6.7
NY        :    701       702     1,490     1,530     1,044     1,074      2.9
OH        :    265       260     1,485     1,540       394       400      1.5
PA        :    623       615     1,550     1,605       966       987      2.2
TX        :    356       345     1,480     1,515       527       523     -0.8
VT        :    162       162     1,480     1,515       240       245      2.1
VA        :    125       122     1,310     1,345       164       164
WA        :    248       247     1,885     1,935       467       478      2.4
WI        :  1,368     1,366     1,480     1,515     2,025     2,069      2.2
          :
20-State  :
 Total    :  7,719     7,725     1,556     1,609    12,011    12,430      3.5
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/  1999 revised.
2/  Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh.
3/  Excludes milk sucked by calves.




             Milk Cows and Production:  By State and United States,
                         Revised January-March, 1998-99
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          :    Jan-Mar Milk Cows 1/     : Jan-Mar Milk Production 2/  : Change
   State  :-----------------------------------------------------------:  From
          :     1998     :     1999     :     1998     :     1999     :  1998
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          :   ----- 1,000 Head -----       ---- Million Pounds ----     Percent
          :
AL        :      28             27            109            106          -2.8
AK        :       0.9            1.0            3.52           3.47       -1.4
AZ        :     130            132            695            776          11.7
AR        :      51             45            164            130         -20.7
CA        :   1,405          1,448          6,764          7,289           7.8
CO        :      83             82            407            417           2.5
CT        :      30             29            136            134          -1.5
DE        :      11.0           11.0           44.0           43.9        -0.2
FL        :     161            158            657            679           3.3
GA        :      95             90            403            400          -0.7
HI        :       9.0            8.8           31.5           29.9        -5.1
ID        :     283            306          1,356          1,468           8.3
IL        :     129            125            546            528          -3.3
IN        :     134            136            546            547           0.2
IA        :     224            217            950            961           1.2
KS        :      80             85            335            350           4.5
KY        :     143            135            444            420          -5.4
LA        :      64             62            216            208          -3.7
ME        :      40             42            165            175           6.1
MD        :      87             86            348            350           0.6
MA        :      26             25            109            106          -2.8
MI        :     297            298          1,301          1,353           4.0
MN        :     555            545          2,334          2,425           3.9
MS        :      43             39            169            160          -5.3
MO        :     175            164            609            608          -0.2
MT        :      18             18             72             74           2.8
NE        :      70             72            259            292          12.7
NV        :      25             25            113            118           4.4
NH        :      19             19             83             82          -1.2
NJ        :      19             18             75             70          -6.7
NM        :     216            225          1,014          1,152          13.6
NY        :     698            701          2,863          2,981           4.1
NC        :      77             73            332            317          -4.5
ND        :      53             50            179            176          -1.7
OH        :     265            260          1,113          1,102          -1.0
OK        :      92             92            322            325           0.9
OR        :      88             88            384            403           4.9
PA        :     625            615          2,745          2,717          -1.0
RI        :       2.1            2.0            8.3            7.9        -4.8
SC        :      25             24            105            103          -1.9
SD        :     102            102            341            367           7.6
TN        :     108            100            401            379          -5.5
TX        :     365            341          1,498          1,547           3.3
UT        :      88             91            361            382           5.8
VT        :     162            162            664            684           3.0
VA        :     125            122            477            468          -1.9
WA        :     250            248          1,286          1,350           5.0
WV        :      18             18             71             71
WI        :   1,376          1,367          5,537          5,686           2.7
WY        :       6.2            5.9           19.2           18.9        -1.6
          :
US 3/     :   9,176          9,136         39,164         40,540           3.5
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/  Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh.
2/  Excludes milk sucked by calves.
3/  May not add due to rounding.




             Milk Cows and Production:  By State and United States,
                         Preliminary April-June, 1998-99
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          :    Apr-Jun Milk Cows 1/     : Apr-Jun Milk Production 2/  : Change
   State  :-----------------------------------------------------------:  From
          :     1998     :     1999     :     1998     :     1999     :  1998
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          :   ----- 1,000 Head -----       ---- Million Pounds ----     Percent
          :
AL        :      28             27            104            100          -3.8
AK        :       0.9            1.0            3.67           3.57       -2.7
AZ        :     130            133            731            794           8.6
AR        :      49             45            167            132         -21.0
CA        :   1,414          1,460          7,061          7,759           9.9
CO        :      83             81            432            405          -6.3
CT        :      30             29            136            137           0.7
DE        :      11.0           11.0           44.4           43.6        -1.8
FL        :     161            160            629            660           4.9
GA        :      95             90            381            386           1.3
HI        :       8.8            8.6           35.7           32.5        -9.0
ID        :     291            314          1,445          1,577           9.1
IL        :     128            123            559            533          -4.7
IN        :     137            136            571            561          -1.8
IA        :     223            215            984            970          -1.4
KS        :      81             86            345            360           4.3
KY        :     141            133            458            431          -5.9
LA        :      63             61            203            189          -6.9
ME        :      41             42            173            180           4.0
MD        :      86             86            348            337          -3.2
MA        :      26             25            112            109          -2.7
MI        :     300            293          1,371          1,367          -0.3
MN        :     555            545          2,414          2,469           2.3
MS        :      42             39            157            150          -4.5
MO        :     172            161            641            595          -7.2
MT        :      18             18             74             77           4.1
NE        :      69             73            263            304          15.6
NV        :      25             25            120            128           6.7
NH        :      20             19             87             83          -4.6
NJ        :      19             18             75             67         -10.7
NM        :     217            232          1,143          1,223           7.0
NY        :     701            701          3,040          3,128           2.9
NC        :      76             73            325            311          -4.3
ND        :      52             49            181            181
OH        :     265            260          1,159          1,149          -0.9
OK        :      92             92            316            317           0.3
OR        :      89             88            404            440           8.9
PA        :     623            615          2,815          2,855           1.4
RI        :       2.1            2.0            8.6            8.3        -3.5
SC        :      25             24            100            101           1.0
SD        :     102            102            362            380           5.0
TN        :     106             99            399            373          -6.5
TX        :     356            344          1,528          1,509          -1.2
UT        :      90             91            388            406           4.6
VT        :     162            162            698            714           2.3
VA        :     125            122            477            473          -0.8
WA        :     248            247          1,366          1,405           2.9
WV        :      18             18             70             69          -1.4
WI        :   1,368          1,366          5,896          6,032           2.3
WY        :       6.1            5.9           20.7           20.1        -2.9
          :
US 3/     :   9,171          9,151         40,821         42,034           3.0
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/  Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh.
2/  Excludes milk sucked by calves.
3/  May not add due to rounding.




                       Reliability Statement

Survey Procedures:  Primary data used to determine these estimates were
obtained from a sample of producers.  Individual States maintain a list of all
known milk producers and information on the size of their herd.  States use all
known sources of producers to ensure that their lists are as complete as
possible. Generally, all large producers and a sample of small producers are
included in the survey.  Questionnaires are mailed to producers near the end of
the month to obtain data for the first day of the month.  Additional reports
are obtained by telephone, as needed, to supplement the mail response.


Estimation Procedures:  State offices prepare these estimates using survey
indications, historic trends, and any available administrative data. Individual
State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board for
reasonableness.


Revision Policy:  Milk production, rate per cow, and number of cows are subject
to revision the following month for monthly States or the following quarter for
the quarterly States.  Normally, Federal Market Order sales are the main basis
for revisions. However, data for all orders are not available in time for this
revision.  Estimates are again subject to revisions in February each year based
on additional administrative data.  In the event that additional changes are
necessary, a third revision is possible in February the following year. 
Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five-year Census of
Agriculture are available. No revisions are made after that date.


Reliability:  Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in the
sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results
are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and
mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these
errors cannot be measured directly.  They are minimized through rigid quality
controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all
reported data for consistency and reasonableness.


To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report,
the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items on the next page. The
"Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and
is computed using the differences between first and final estimates.  The "Root
Mean Square Error" for milk cow inventory estimates over the past 10 quarters
is 1.1 percent.  This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final
April-June estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 9.15
million head by more than 1.1 percent, or about 101,000 head.  Chances are 9
out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 2.1 percent, or about 192,000
head (the 90 percent confidence level).

                   Reliability of April-June Milk Estimates 1/
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             :       :                :   Difference Between    :   Quarters
             : Root  :      90%       :    First and Latest     :---------------
             : Mean  :   Confidence   :        Estimates        : First : First
     Item    :Square :     Level      :-------------------------: Above : Below
             : Error :                :Average:Smallest:Largest :Latest :Latest
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             :    Percent       ------- Million Pounds ------        Number
             :
Milk         :
  Production :  0.6     1.0     420      179       3      426      10       0
             :    Percent       --------- 1,000 Head --------         Number
             :
All Milk     :
  Cows       :  1.1     2.1     192       92      11      188       8       2
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/  Based on records for the past 10 April-June quarters.



The next "Milk Production" report will be released at 3 p.m. ET on August 16,
1999.




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