HDR1012000160030515971500MILK PRODUCTION                                        
Milk                                                                            
Production                                                                      
                                                                                
National                                                                        
Agricultural                                                                    
Statistics                                                                      
Service                                                                         
                                                                                
USDA                                                                            
Washington, D.C.                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
Released May 15, 1997, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS),  
Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture.  For information 
on "Milk Production" call James Hand at (202) 690-3236, office hours 7:30 a.m.  
to 4:00 p.m. ET.                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                 April Production Up 0.8 Percent                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
Milk production in the 20 major States during April totaled 11.4 billion pounds,
up 0.8 percent from production in these same States in April 1996.  March       
revised production, at 11.6 billion pounds was up 1.1 percent from March 1996.  
                                                                                
                                                                                
Production per cow in the 20 major States averaged 1,469 pounds for April,      
28 pounds above April 1996.                                                     
                                                                                
                                                                                
The number of cows on farms in the 20 major States was 7.73 million head,       
87,000 head less than April 1996 and 5,000 head less than March 1997.           
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
         Milk Cows and Production:  By Quarter, United States,  1996-97         
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
        :    Milk Cows  1/   :  Milk per Cow  2/ :     Milk Production 2/       
        :---------------------------------------------------------------------- 
Quarter :          :         :         :         :         :         :          
        :  1996    :  1997   :  1996   :  1997   :  1996   :  1997   :% Change  
        :          :         :         :         :         :         :from 1996 
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
        :    ---- 1,000 ----        Pounds         Million Pounds               
        :                                                                       
Jan-Mar :    9,397     9,265     4,156     4,198    39,053    38,896      -0.4  
Apr-Jun :    9,369               4,231              39,638                      
Jul-Sep :    9,338               4,035              37,674                      
Oct-Dec :    9,300               4,083              37,966                      
        :                                                                       
Annual  :    9,351              16,505             154,331                      
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
1/  Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh.                          
2/  Excludes milk sucked by calves.                                             
                                                                                
                                                                                
        Milk Cows and Production:  By Month, 20 Selected States, 1996-97        
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
        :    Milk Cows  1/   :  Milk per Cow  2/ :     Milk Production 2/       
        :---------------------------------------------------------------------- 
 Month  :          :         :         :         :         :         :          
        :   1996   :  1997   :  1996   :  1997   :  1996   :  1997   :% Change  
        :          :         :         :         :         :         :from 1996 
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
        :    ---- 1,000 ----          Pounds         Million Pounds             
        :                                                                       
Jan     :    7,846     7,757     1,415     1,439    11,103    11,163       0.5  
Feb     :    7,828     7,743     1,348     1,331    10,549    10,309      -2.3  
Mar     :    7,822     7,736     1,469     1,501    11,487    11,611       1.1  
Apr     :    7,818     7,731     1,441     1,469    11,265    11,358       0.8  
May     :    7,816               1,479              11,560                      
Jun     :    7,818               1,398              10,926                      
Jul     :    7,815               1,400              10,944                      
Aug     :    7,802               1,382              10,786                      
Sep     :    7,795               1,342              10,459                      
Oct     :    7,788               1,391              10,831                      
Nov     :    7,775               1,350              10,499                      
Dec     :    7,765               1,418              11,013                      
        :                                                                       
Annual  :    7,807              16,833             131,422                      
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
1/  Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh.                          
2/  Excludes milk sucked by calves.                                             
                                                                                
                                                                                
               Estimated Milk Production,  United States, 1996-97               
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
        :           by Month                     Cumulative                     
        :---------------------------------------------------------------------- 
 Month  :          :         :         :         :         :                    
        :   1996   :  1997   :% Change :  1996   :   1997  :  % Change          
        :          :         :from 1996:         :         :  from 1996         
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
        :    Million Pounds                Million Pounds                       
        :                                                                       
Jan     :   13,085    13,129       0.3    13,085    13,129       0.3            
Feb     :   12,431    12,125      -2.5    25,516    25,254      -1.0            
Mar     :   13,537    13,642       0.8    39,053    38,896      -0.4            
Apr     :   13,230    13,339       0.8    52,283    52,235      -0.1            
May     :   13,576                        65,859                                
Jun     :   12,832                        78,691                                
Jul     :   12,809                        91,500                                
Aug     :   12,624                       104,124                                
Sep     :   12,241                       116,365                                
Oct     :   12,714                       129,079                                
Nov     :   12,324                       141,403                                
Dec     :   12,928                       154,331                                
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
                                                                                
              Milk Cows and Production:  By State,  April 1996-97               
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
        :    Milk Cows  1/   :  Milk per Cow  2/ :     Milk Production 2/       
        :---------------------------------------------------------------------- 
 State  :          :         :         :         :         :         :          
        :   1996   :  1997   :  1996   :  1997   :  1996   :  1997   :% Change  
        :          :         :         :         :         :         :from 1996 
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
        :    ---- 1,000 ----          Pounds          Million Pounds            
        :                                                                       
AZ      :      119       127     1,905     1,975       227       251      10.6  
CA      :    1,261     1,280     1,720     1,815     2,169     2,323       7.1  
FL      :      157       162     1,410     1,450       221       235       6.3  
ID      :      249       264     1,490     1,540       371       407       9.7  
IL      :      156       148     1,320     1,350       206       200      -2.9  
IN      :      140       140     1,320     1,310       185       183      -1.1  
IA      :      250       248     1,280     1,350       320       335       4.7  
KY      :      156       145     1,075     1,130       168       164      -2.4  
MI      :      322       306     1,440     1,485       464       454      -2.2  
MN      :      595       590     1,350     1,335       803       788      -1.9  
MO      :      183       174     1,260     1,185       231       206     -10.8  
NM      :      193       199     1,670     1,730       322       344       6.8  
NY      :      700       698     1,420     1,380       994       963      -3.1  
OH      :      285       283     1,340     1,325       382       375      -1.8  
PA      :      643       639     1,435     1,445       923       923       0.0  
TX      :      400       390     1,445     1,385       578       540      -6.6  
VT      :      155       155     1,405     1,390       218       215      -1.4  
VA      :      127       123     1,240     1,300       157       160       1.9  
WA      :      262       265     1,665     1,700       436       451       3.4  
WI      :    1,465     1,395     1,290     1,320     1,890     1,841      -2.6  
        :                                                                       
20 State:                                                                       
 Total  :    7,818     7,731     1,441     1,469    11,265    11,358       0.8  
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
1/  Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh.                          
2/  Excludes milk sucked by calves.                                             
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
            Milk Cows and Production:  By State,  March 1996-97 1/              
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
        :    Milk Cows  2/   :  Milk per Cow  3/ :     Milk Production 3/       
        :---------------------------------------------------------------------- 
 State  :          :         :         :         :         :         :          
        :   1996   :  1997   :   1996  :  1997   :  1996   :  1997   :% Change  
        :          :         :         :         :         :         :from 1996 
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
        :    ---- 1,000 ----         Pounds           Million Pounds            
        :                                                                       
AZ      :      119       126     1,960     2,055       233       259      11.2  
CA      :    1,260     1,276     1,725     1,850     2,174     2,361       8.6  
FL      :      156       162     1,475     1,530       230       248       7.8  
ID      :      247       264     1,500     1,550       371       409      10.2  
IL      :      157       148     1,320     1,360       207       201      -2.9  
IN      :      140       140     1,380     1,310       193       183      -5.2  
IA      :      249       248     1,300     1,370       324       340       4.9  
KY      :      156       147     1,075     1,115       168       164      -2.4  
MI      :      321       306     1,485     1,520       477       465      -2.5  
MN      :      595       590     1,400     1,385       833       817      -1.9  
MO      :      183       174     1,245     1,185       228       206      -9.6  
NM      :      193       199     1,675     1,735       323       345       6.8  
NY      :      700       700     1,460     1,410     1,022       987      -3.4  
OH      :      285       283     1,380     1,360       393       385      -2.0  
PA      :      645       639     1,465     1,470       945       939      -0.6  
TX      :      400       390     1,480     1,445       592       564      -4.7  
VT      :      157       155     1,425     1,425       224       221      -1.3  
VA      :      127       124     1,265     1,320       161       164       1.9  
WA      :      262       265     1,685     1,720       441       456       3.4  
WI      :    1,470     1,400     1,325     1,355     1,948     1,897      -2.6  
        :                                                                       
20 State:                                                                       
 Total  :    7,822     7,736     1,469     1,501    11,487    11,611       1.1  
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
1/  1997 revised.  2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh.        
3/  Excludes milk sucked by calves.                                             
                       Reliability Statement                                    
                                                                                
Survey Procedures:  Primary data used to determine these estimates were         
                    obtained from a sample of producers.  Individual States     
maintain a list of all known milk producers and information on the size of their
herd.  States use all known sources of producers to ensure that their lists are 
as complete as possible. Generally, all large producers and a sample of small   
producers are included in the survey.  Questionnaires are mailed to producers   
near the end of the month to obtain data for the first day of the month.        
Additional reports are obtained by telephone, as needed, to supplement the mail 
response.                                                                       
                                                                                
                                                                                
Estimation Procedures:  State offices prepare these estimates using survey      
                        indications, historic trends, and any available         
administrative data. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural
Statistics Board for reasonableness.                                            
                                                                                
                                                                                
Revision Policy:  Milk production, rate per cow, and number of cows are         
                  subject to revision the following month for monthly States or 
the following quarter for the quarterly States.  Normally, Federal Market Order 
sales are the main basis for revisions. However, data for all orders are not    
available in time for this revision.  Estimates are again subject to revisions  
in February each year based on additional administrative data.  In the event    
that additional changes are necessary, a third revision is possible in February 
the following year.  Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five-year 
Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions are made after that date.     
                                                                                
                                                                                
Reliability:  Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in the   
              sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability.     
Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions,       
duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The
effects of these errors cannot be measured directly.  They are minimized through
rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful     
review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness.                 
                                                                                
                                                                                
To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report,  
the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items on the next page. The  
"Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and 
is computed using the differences between first and final estimates.  The "Root 
Mean Square Error" for milk cow inventory estimates over the past 10 quarters is
1.1 percent.  This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final             
October-December estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of    
9.27 million head by more than 1.1 percent, or about 102,000 head.  Chances are 
9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 2.0 percent, or about 185,000   
head (the 90 percent confidence level).                                         
                                                                                
                Reliability of January-March Milk Estimates 1/                  
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
             :        :              :    Difference Between    :               
             :        :              :      First and Final     :    Number of  
             :  Root  :     90%      :         Estimates  1/    :    Quarters   
    Item     :  Mean  :  Confidence  :------------------------------------------
             : Square :    Level     :        :         :       : First : First 
             :  Error :              : Average: Smallest:Largest: Above : Below 
             :        :              :        :         :       : Final : Final 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             :   - Percent -     ---------- Mil Lbs. ----------     - Number -  
             :                                                                  
Milk         :   0.5      .9     349     169       30      315      8       2   
  Production :                                                                  
             :                  --------- 1,000 Head ----------                 
                                                                                
             :                                                                  
All Milk     :   1.1     2.0     185      91        5      187     10       0   
  Cows       :                                                                  
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/  Based on records for the past 10 January-March quarters.                    
                                                                                
                                                                                
The next "Milk Production" report will be released at 3 P.M. ET on              
June 13, 1997.                                                                  
                                                                                
                                                                                
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