Mandatory Furnace Rule Change and Potential Unintended Consequences

Regional Impact of Fuel Switching on Residential Heating 

Installation Contractors

Region Pacific Click on Cell B4 and Use Dropdown Box to Change Region

Number of Homes 334,231

Values in Blue Shaded Cells Come from Data in Gray Tabs Below

Base Case

Natural Gas Furnace Natural Gas 

Furnace

Change w/o 

Fuel Switching

Fraction of 

Impacted Homes 

Switching to 

Electric Heater 

Fraction of 

Impacted Homes 

Switching to 

Electric Heat 

Pump

Fraction of 

Impacted 

Homes with 

Natural Gas 

Furnace

Fraction of 

Impacted 

Homes 

Switching 

from Gas 

Water Heater

Fraction of 

Impacted 

Homes 

Switching to 

Electric Water 

Heater

Total Gas 

Consumption 

with Fuel 

Switching 

(Dth)

Change in 

Electric 

Consumption 

Compared to 

Base Case 

(MWh)

Change in Gas 

Consumption Compared to 

Base Case (Dth) Using 

Survey Results

Efficiency: AFUE/HSPF/EF 80% 90% 100% 8.1 90% 0.62 0.95

Annual consumption (input) of natural gas in 

Dekatherm (Dth) and electricity in kWh

1

 34.9 31.0 -3.9 8,106 3,276 31.0 18.5 3,537

% of homes impacted 29.3% 100.0% 6.8% 11.9% 81.3% 6.9% -6.9%

Number of homes impacted 97,838 97,838 97,838 6,646 11,631 79,561 6,786 -6,786

Total annual consumption. Natural gas in Dth & 

electrcity in MWH. 3,414,562 3,032,992 -381,570 53,875 38,104 2,466,389 125,539 -24,002 2,591,928 67,977 -822,634

Customer Operating Cost Impact Gas Cost ($/Yr) Electricity Cost 

($/Yr) 

 Change in Energy Cost 

Compared to Base Case 

Using Survey Results ($/Yr) 

Natural gas price in $/Dth and electricity in $/kWh $13.00 $13.00 $13.00 $0.2018 $0.2018 $13.00 $13.00 $0.2018

Annual heating operating cost to residential 

customers $44,389,301 $39,428,892 -$4,960,409 $10,869,890 $7,687,772 $32,063,055 $1,632,008 -$4,842,576 $33,695,063 $13,715,086 $3,020,848

Full Fuel Cycle Source Energy Impact Gas Source 

Energy (Dth/Yr) 

 Electricity 

Source Energy 

(Dth/Yr) 

 Change in Source Energy 

Compared to Base Case 

w/Fuel Switching (Dth/Yr) 

Source Energy Factor 1.09 1.09 1.09 2.74 2.74 1.09 1.09 2.74

Total Source Energy Consumption (Dth) 3,721,872 3,305,961 -415,911 503,823 356,331 2,688,364 136,838 -224,455 2,825,201 635,699 -260,972

CO2e Emissions Impact

 Gas CO2e 

emissions 

(Tons/Yr) 

 Electricity 

CO2e 

Emissions 

(Tons/Yr) 

 Change in CO2e Emissions 

Compared to Base Case 

Using Survey Results 

(Tons/Yr) 

CO2e Emissions: lbs/mmBtu for natural gas and

lbs/MWH for electricity 147.0 147.0 147.0 1,182 1,182 147.0 147.0 1,182.0 

Total CO2e Emissions in Ton/yr. 228,155 202,659 -25,496 28,946 20,472 164,800 8,388 -12,895 173,188 36,522 -18,445

CO2 Externalities Impact

 Gas CO2 

Externalities 

Cost ($/Yr) 

 Electricity CO2 

Externalities 

Cost ($/Yr) 

 Change in CO2 

Externalities Compared to 

Base Case Using Survey 

Results ($/Yr) 

CO2 Externalities Value ($/Tonne) $37.00 $37.00 $37.00 $37.00 $37.00 $37.00 $37.00 $37.00

Total Annual CO2 externalities Impact ($/Yr) $8,441,728 $7,498,383 -$943,345 $1,070,995 $757,465 $6,097,586 $310,367 -$477,132 $6,407,953 $1,351,328 -$682,447

High Efficiency Impact High Efficiency Impacts with Fuel Switching 

Site Energy Consumption Impact - Residential 

Heating and Water Heating

2/23/2007
Mandatory Furnace Rule Change and Potential Unintended Consequences

National Impact of Fuel Switching on Residential Heating 

Installation Contractors

Region ALL

Number of Homes 2,243,397

Base Case

Natural Gas Furnace Natural Gas 

Furnace

Change w/o 

Fuel Switching

Fraction of 

Impacted Homes 

Switching to 

Electric Heater 

Fraction of 

Impacted Homes 

Switching to 

Electric Heat 

Pump

Fraction of 

Impacted 

Homes with 

Natural Gas 

Furnace

Fraction of 

Impacted 

Homes 

Switching 

from Gas 

Water Heater

Fraction of 

Impacted 

Homes 

Switching to 

Electric Water 

Heater

Total Gas 

Consumption 

with Fuel 

Switching 

(Dth)

Change in 

Electric 

Consumption 

Compared to 

Base Case 

(MWh)

Change in Gas 

Consumption Compared to 

Base Case Using Survey 

Results (Dth/Yr)

Efficiency: AFUE/HSPF/EF 80% 90% 100% 8.1 90% 0.62 0.95

Annual consumption (input) of natural gas in 

Dekatherm (Dth) and electricity in kWh1

 52.0 46.2 -5.8 18,958 5,409 45.2 20.2 3,863

% of homes impacted 32.3% 100.0% 3.2% 19.1% 77.8% -3.4% 3.4%

Number of homes impacted 724,258 724,258 724,258 22,880 138,250 563,128 (24,693) 24,693 

Total annual consumption. Natural gas in Dth & 

electrcity in MWH. 37,626,736 33,427,016 -4,199,720 433,764 747,859 25,461,225 (498,954) 95,400 24,962,270 1,277,023 -12,664,466

Customer Operating Cost Impact Gas Cost ($/Yr) Electricity Cost 

($/Yr) 

 Change in Energy Cost 

Compared to Base Case 

Using Survey Results ($/Yr) 

Natural gas price in $/Dth and electricity in $/kWh $8.53 $8.53 $8.54 $0.1253 $0.1171 $8.60 $6.40 $0.0871

Annual heating operating cost to residential 

customers 321,113,308 285,257,499 (35,855,810) 54,363,152 87,605,426 218,934,285 (3,191,761) 8,313,261 $215,742,524 $150,281,839 $44,911,055

Full Fuel Cycle Source Energy Impact Gas Source 

Energy (Dth/Yr) 

 Electricity 

Source Energy 

(Dth/Yr) 

 Change in Source Energy 

Compared to Base Case 

w/Fuel Switching (Dth/Yr) 

Source Energy Factor 1.09 1.09 1.09 3.34 3.22 1.09 1.09 3.42

Total Source Energy Consumption (Dth) 41,013,142 36,435,447 (4,577,695) 4,938,621 8,217,494 27,752,735 (543,860) 1,111,996 27,208,874 14,268,111 463,844

CO2e Emissions Impact

 Gas CO2e 

emissions 

(Tons/Yr) 

 Electricity 

CO2e 

Emissions 

(Tons/Yr) 

 Change in CO2e Emissions 

Compared to Base Case 

Using Survey Results 

(Tons/Yr) 

CO2e Emissions: lbs/mmBtu for natural gas and

lbs/MWH for electricity 147.0 147.0 147.0 2,127.7 1,985.8 147.0 147.0 2,312.1 

Total CO2e Emissions in Ton/yr. 2,514,150 2,233,532 (280,618) 419,512 675,034 1,701,273 (33,339) 100,259 1,667,933 1,194,806 348,589

CO2 Externalities Impact

 Gas CO2 

Externalities 

Cost ($/Yr) 

 Electricity CO2 

Externalities 

Cost ($/Yr) 

 Change in CO2 

Externalities Compared to 

Base Case Using Survey 

Results ($/Yr) 

CO2 Externalities Value ($/Tonne) $37.00 $37.00 $37.00 $37.00 $37.00 $37.00 $37.00 $37.00

Total Annual CO2 externalities Impact ($/Yr) 93,023,553 82,640,699 (10,382,854) 15,521,945 24,976,264 62,947,091 (1,233,552) 3,709,596 $61,713,539 $44,207,805 $12,897,792

Site Energy Consumption Impact - 

Residential Heating and Water Heating

High Efficiency Impact High Efficiency Impacts with Fuel Switching 
All Pacific Mountain 

North

West 

North 

Central

East North 

Central

Middle 

Atlantic

Number of units shipped 2,243,397 334,231 131,667 212,692 592,500 263,333

Furnace Shipments: AHRI 2012 Gas Warm Air Furnace Shipments 

http://www.ari.org/site/497/Resources/Statistics/Historical-Data/Furnaces-Historical-Data

Census Division Shipments Prorated Using RECS 2009 Gas Furnace Stock in Tables HC 6.8 through HC 6.11 (http://www.eia.go

RECS Furnaces (Millions) 44.3 6.6 2.6 4.2 11.7 5.2

Furnace Shipment Data for 2012

Region
New 

England

South 

Atlantic

East 

South 

Central

West 

South 

Central

Mountain 

South

50,641 238,013 101,282 232,949 86,090

ough HC 6.11 (http://www.eia.gov/consumption/residential/data/2009/)

1 4.7 2 4.6 1.7
All Pacific Mountain 

North

West North 

Central

East North 

Central

Natural Gas - minimum 80% (Dth) 34.9 63.4 98.7 80.3

Natural Gas - condensing 90% (Dth) 31.0 56.4 87.7 71.3

Electric Resistance 100% (kWh) 8,106.0 14,720.0 23,019.0 18,689.0

Electric Heat Pump 8.1 HSPF (kWh) 3,276.0 6,503.0 12,796.0 8,765.0

Gas Water Heater .62 EF (Dth) 18.5 20.7 21.7 20.8

Electric Water Heater .95 EF (kWh) 3,537.0 3,950.0 4,156.0 3,980.0

Consumption Estimates from GTI Source Energy and Emissions Analysis Tool V6.1 (www.cmictools.com)

Residential Detached - 2 Story, 2171 SF

Representative Cities for Estimates: US Ave. Sacramento Boise Minneapolis Chicago

 Natural Gas and Electric Equipment

Annual Energy Consumption
Middle 

Atlantic

New 

England

South 

Atlantic

East South 

Central

West South 

Central

Mountain 

South

 67.8 78.3 35.8 40.5 23.7 10.6

 60.2 69.6 31.8 36.0 21.1 9.4

 15,775.0 18,264.0 8,315.0 9,394.0 5,497.0 2,482.0

 6,756.0 8,252.0 3,427.0 3,962.0 2,229.0 996.0

 20.0 20.6 18.5 18.7 17.1 15.6

 3,817.0 3,935.0 3,537.0 3,567.0 3,272.0 2,992.0

Philadelphia Boston Charlotte Knoxville Dallas Phoenix

ctric Equipment

onsumption

Region
All Pacific Mountain 

North

West 

North 

Central

East 

North 

Central

Electricity ($/kWh) 0.202 0.103 0.116 0.103

Natural gas ($/Dth) 13.00 7.85 6.80 7.70

Electricity - source energy factor 2.74 2.98 3.59 3.30

Natural gas - source energy factor 1.09 1.09 1.09 1.09

Division Source Energy Factors From SEEAT V 6.1 (www.cmictools.com) eGRID Subregion Non-Baseload Plants

US Total is from Average Power Plants US AVE CAMX NWPP MROW RFCW

3.14 2.74 2.98 3.59 3.3

Marginal Prices for Electricity derived in "Electric Marginal Data" Tab.

Representative States for Divisions Total CA ID MN IL

cents/kWh 12.5 20.2 10.3 11.6 10.3

Marginal Prices for Natural Gas from AGA Rate Survey Q3 2013

Representative States for Divisions Total CA ID MN IL

100 Therm Marginal Prices ($/Therm) 0.861 1.3 0.785 0.68 0.77

Electricity and Natural Gas

Marginal Prices and Source Efficiency Factors

Region
Middle 

Atlantic

New 

England

South 

Atlantic

East 

South 

Central

West 

South 

Central

Mountain 

South

 0.130 0.175 0.103 0.130 0.083 0.103

 9.50 9.70 9.99 7.59 6.31 9.50

 3.20 2.82 3.14 3.25 3.00 2.90

 1.09 1.09 1.09 1.09 1.09 1.09

on-Baseload Plants

RFCE NEWE SRVC SRTV ERCT AZNM

3.2 2.82 3.14 3.25 3 2.9

PA MA NC TN TX AZ

13.0 17.5 10.3 13.0 8.3 10.3

PA MA NC TN TX AZ

0.95 0.97 0.999 0.759 0.631 0.95

tural Gas

e Efficiency Factors

Region
Census 

Regions

Census 

Division

Census 

Division + 

4 Lrg 

States

Analysis 

Regions

Analysis 

Regions

3 6 6 6 3

4 9 9 9 1

4 8 8 8.1 2

3 7 7 7 3

4 9 11 11 2

4 8 8 8 1

1 1 1 1 1

3 5 5 5 3

3 5 5 5 3

3 5 13 13 3

3 5 5 5 3

4 9 9 9.1 3

4 8 8 8 1

2 3 3 3 1

2 3 3 3 1

2 4 4 4 1

2 4 4 4 1

3 6 6 6 3

3 7 7 7 3

1 1 1 1 1

3 5 5 5 3

1 1 1 1 1

2 3 3 3 1

2 4 4 4 1

3 6 6 6 3

2 4 4 4 1

4 8 8 8 1

2 4 4 4 1

4 8 8 8.1 2

1 1 1 1 1

1 2 2 2 1

4 8 8 8.1 2

1 2 10 10 1

3 5 5 5 3

2 4 4 4 1
2 3 3 3 1

3 7 7 7 3

4 9 9 9 1

1 2 2 2 1

1 1 1 1 1

3 5 5 5 3

2 4 4 4 1

3 6 6 6 3

3 7 12 12 3

4 8 8 8 1

1 1 1 1 1

3 5 5 5 3

4 9 9 9 1

3 5 5 5.1 1

2 3 3 3 1

4 8 8 8 1

Source; Energy Conservation Program: Energy Conservation Standards for Residential Furn

TSD_Appendix_8-F_Technical_Aspects_of_the_Tariff-Based_Approach.pdf 

http://www.regulations.gov/contentStreamer?objectId=0900006480f463f4&disposition=a

 US $2008 Marginal

State Name

 Summer - 

July Med. 

Marg. (TAP) 

c/kWh

SummerJuly Avr. 

EEI c/kWh

Winter- Jan. 

Med. Marg. 

(TAP) c/kWh

Winter - Jan. 

Avr. EEI 

c/kWh

 Summer - 

July Med. 

Marg. (TAP) 

c/kWh

Alabama AL 9.0 11.8 9.0 11.2 9.8

Alaska AK 14.0 14.0 -

Arizona AZ 10.7 11.1 9.0 9.0 12.2

Arkansas AR 10.0 9.1 9.5 8.0 10.3

California CA 18.5 14.8 17.0 14.9 22.0

Colorado CO 13.5 11.0 12.0 9.8 15.8

Connecticut CT 18.4 21.9 18.5 20.0 16.6

Delaware DE 14.6 15.0 15.0 15.0 13.6

District of Columbia DC 13.7 14.0 13.0 11.0 13.5

Florida FL 10.0 11.0 10.0 10.9 9.8

Georgia GA 10.0 10.5 9.0 9.0 11.3

Hawaii HI 19.4 35.0 19.0 30.0 22.0

Idaho ID 11.1 7.5 10.4 7.0 11.0

Illinois IL 7.5 11.0 7.0 10.9 11.0

Indiana IN 11.3 10.0 11.4 10.8 11.1

Iowa IA 10.0 10.8 9.0 9.0 12.6

Kansas KS 7.7 10.1 7.0 8.0 10.0

Kentucky KY 7.9 8.0 7.5 7.5 9.7

Louisiana LA 10.0 11.8 10.0 9.8 9.1

Maine ME 17.2 17.5 17.0 16.8 15.2

Maryland MD 14.9 14.8 14.6 13.0 14.3

Massachusetts MA 19.0 19.0 19.5 18.2 17.0

Michigan MI 13.1 10.0 12.0 10.0 17.8

Minnesota MN 10.8 9.9 9.5 9.0 13.2

Mississippi MS 12.6 13.5 12.3 11.3 13.1

Missouri MO 8.5 10.0 6.5 8.5 11.2

Montana MT 7.9 10.0 8.0 9.0 9.0

Nebraska NE 10.6 7.5 13.9

Nevada NV 12.8 13.0 -

New Hampshire NH 15.2 16.0 15.4 14.7 15.9

New Jersey NJ 17.6 18.0 15.8 14.7 17.7

New Mexico NM 10.0 11.0 8.5 9.2 11.7

New York NY 10.0 13.2 18.0 16.5 10.3

North Carolina NC 10.5 10.0 9.0 9.0 12.0

North Dakota ND 8.5 8.3 -
Ohio OH 9.8 11.3 8.5 11.0 11.6

Oklahoma OK 9.9 10.0 8.7 8.7 10.5

Oregon OR 6.5 8.0 5.8 8.0 7.6

Pennsylvania PA 12.0 13.1 11.5 12.5 13.6

Rhode Island RI 15.1 15.2 -

South Carolina SC 9.9 10.0 9.5 9.5 11.8

South Dakota SD 9.9 9.0 -

Tennessee TN 10.3 6.0 11.5 5.5 11.6

Texas TX 7.0 11.1 9.5 9.0 6.1

Utah UT 8.0 8.3 7.0 7.0 10.1

Vermont VT 13.9 14.0 14.8 14.8 16.5

Virginia VA 8.9 8.3 6.9 8.9 10.1

Washington WA 4.5 7.0 4.1 7.0 5.2

West Virginia WV 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 9.4

Wisconsin WI 12.5 12.0 12.5 11.0 14.9

Wyoming WY 8.5 8.1 -

ndards for Residential Furnaces and Residential Central Air Conditioners and Heat Pumps 2011. 

06480f463f4&disposition=attachment&contentType=pdf

 US $2013

Winter- Jan. 

Med. Marg. 

(TAP) c/kWh

State 

Name

2008 

Residentia

l Annual 

Average 

c/KWh

2013 

Residentia

l Annual 

Average 

c/KWh

2013 to 

2008 Price 

Ratio

 9.8 AL Alabama 10.4 11.27 1.0837

 15.4 AK Alaska 16.56 18.19 1.0984

 10.3 AZ Arizona 10.27 11.74 1.1431

 9.7 AR Arkansas 9.27 9.51 1.0259

 20.2 CA California 13.81 16.39 1.1868

 14.1 CO Colorado 10.13 11.87 1.1718

 16.6 CT Connecticut 19.54 17.58 0.8997

 14.0 DE Delaware 13.93 13.01 0.9340

 12.8 DC District of Columbia 12.78 12.56 0.9828

 9.8 FL Florida 11.65 11.36 0.9751

 10.2 GA Georgia 9.93 11.24 1.1319

 21.6 HI Hawaii 32.5 36.9 1.1354

 10.3 ID Idaho 9.49 9.37 0.9874

 10.3 IL Illinois 6.99 10.25 1.4664

 11.2 IN Indiana 11.07 10.84 0.9792

 11.3 IA Iowa 8.87 11.15 1.2570

 9.1 KS Kansas 8.89 11.56 1.3003

 9.2 KY Kentucky 7.94 9.71 1.2229

 9.1 LA Louisiana 10.28 9.39 0.9134

 15.0 ME Maine 16.24 14.35 0.8836

 14.0 MD Maryland 13.84 13.24 0.9566

 17.5 MA Massachusetts 17.56 15.73 0.8958

 16.3 MI Michigan 10.75 14.59 1.3572

 11.6 MN Minnesota 9.74 11.94 1.2259

 12.8 MS Mississippi 10.39 10.82 1.0414

 8.5 MO Missouri 8 10.52 1.3150

 9.1 MT Montana 9.13 10.38 1.1369

 9.8 NE Nebraska 7.87 10.31 1.3100

 12.8 NV Nevada 11.93 11.89 0.9966

 16.1 NH New Hampshire 15.68 16.36 1.0434

 15.9 NJ New Jersey 15.66 15.72 1.0038

 9.9 NM New Mexico 10.01 11.69 1.1678

 18.5 NY New York 18.31 18.84 1.0289

 10.3 NC North Carolina 9.52 10.91 1.1460

 - ND North Dakota 7.52 9.1 1.2101
 10.1 OH Ohio 10.06 11.91 1.1839

 9.2 OK Oklahoma 9.09 9.62 1.0583

 6.8 OR Oregon 8.49 9.94 1.1708

 13.0 PA Pennsylvania 11.35 12.82 1.1295

 - RI Rhode Island 17.45 15.47 0.8865

 11.4 SC South Carolina 9.89 11.82 1.1951

 - SD South Dakota 8.27 10.26 1.2406

 13.0 TN Tennessee 8.91 10.04 1.1268

 8.3 TX Texas 13.03 11.37 0.8726

 8.8 UT Utah 8.26 10.42 1.2615

 17.5 VT Vermont 14.48 17.15 1.1844

 7.8 VA Virginia 9.62 10.93 1.1362

 4.7 WA Washington 7.54 8.67 1.1499

 9.4 WV West Virginia 7.06 9.52 1.3484

 14.9 WI Wisconsin 11.51 13.7 1.1903

 - WY Wyoming 8.21 10.18 1.2400

Source; http://www.eia.gov/electricity/data/browser

http://www.eia.gov/electricity/data/state/

Average Price by State by Provider (EIA-861) 1990-2012

http://www.eia.gov/electricity/data/state/avgprice_annual.xls


 1990-2012

tate/avgprice_annual.xls
All Pacific Mountain 

North

West 

North 

Central

East 

North 

Central

Middle 

Atlantic

Electricity (lbs/MWh) 1,182 1,636 2,301 2,242 1,878

Natural gas (lbs CO2/MMBtu) 147 147 147 147 147

CO2 value ($/tonne) 37 37 37 37 37

Division CO2e Emission Factors From SEEAT V 6.1 (www.cmictools.com) eGRID Subregion Non-Baseload Plants

US Total is from Average Power Plants US AVE CAMX NWPP MROW RFCW RFCE

1443 1182 1636 2301 2242 1878

CO2 values from Interagency Working Group on Social Cost of Carbon 3% discount, 2015.

http://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/omb/assets/inforeg/technical-update-social-cost-of-carbon-for-regulator-im

Electricity and Natural Gas 

Emissions Rates and Externalities Values

Region

New 

England

South 

Atlantic

East 

South 

Central

West 

South 

Central

Mountain 

South

 1,399 1,859 2,157 1,566 1,508

 147 147 147 147 147

 37 37 37 37 37

NEWE SRVC SRTV ERCT AZNM

1399 1859 2157 1566 1508

arbon-for-regulator-impact-analysis.pdf 

All Pacific Mountain 

North

electric heat: heat pump 24.0 333.3 n/a

electric heat: electric furnace or baseboard -3.3 -41.7 n/a

gas heat: condensing natural gas furnaces 79.3 -191.7 n/a

100.000 100.0 0.0

All Pacific Mountain 

North

water heating: electric 9.8 91.7 n/a

water heating: gas -10.9 -91.7 n/a

All Pacific Mountain 

North

Number of Respondents 205 14 1

Number of total respondents is smaller than the sum of the respondents in the different regions because some repondents a

Region and the South Atlantic Region they are counted as a respondent in both of those regions. This creates a bit of a probl

counted twice.

Heating: Percent Change of Affected Homes Due to Rule Change (

Water Heating: Percent Changeof Affected Homes Due to Rule Chan

Number of Respondents
All Pacific Mountain 

North

electric heat: heat pump 5.0 14.3 n/a

electric heat: electric furnace or baseboard -0.7 -1.8 n/a

gas heat: condensing natural gas furnaces 16.5 -8.2 0.0

gas heat: minimum efficiency furnace -21.1 -4.3 0.0

98.9 100.0 #VALUE!

Columns do not exactly sum to zero because of the "other combinations" category

All Pacific Mountain 

North

water heating: electric 2.1 3.9 0.0

water heating: gas -2.3 -3.9 0.0

Columns do not exactly sum to zero because of the "other combinations" category
West North 

Central

East North 

Central

Middle 

Atlantic

New 

England

South 

Atlantic

East South 

Central

West South 

Central

Mountain 

South

3.1 15.3 24.4 n/a 28.1 26.8 0.0 n/a

5.0 -12.8 -4.1 n/a -0.2 -17.9 0.0 n/a

92.0 97.4 79.7 n/a 72.1 91.0 100.0 n/a

100.0 100.0 100.0 0.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 0.0

West North 

Central

East North 

Central

Middle 

Atlantic

New 

England

South 

Atlantic

East South 

Central

West South 

Central

Mountain 

South

39.0 -4.0 -3.8 n/a -7.3 23.4 -16.7 n/a

-39.0 2.0 3.6 n/a 6.5 -30.4 16.7 n/a

West North 

Central

East North 

Central

Middle 

Atlantic

New 

England

South 

Atlantic

East South 

Central

West South 

Central

Mountain 

South

34 67 25 6 53 27 7 1

nt regions because some repondents are in multiple regions. So, for example, if a respondent is in the Middle Atlantic 

e regions. This creates a bit of a problem because they only answer questions 12 and 13 once and their answers are then 

Builders

d Homes Due to Rule Change (post - pre rule change percentages)

Region

Builders

cted Homes Due to Rule Change (post - pre rule change percentages)

Region

Builders

Number of Respondents

Region

Builders
West North 

Central

East North 

Central

Middle 

Atlantic

New 

England

South 

Atlantic

East South 

Central

West South 

Central

Mountain 

South

0.7 2.2 5.6 n/a 6.9 4.2 0.0 n/a

1.2 -1.9 -0.9 n/a -0.1 -2.8 0.0 n/a

21.9 14.2 18.2 0.0 17.6 14.4 21.4 0.0

-23.8 -14.9 -22.9 0.0 -24.6 -17.0 -21.4 0.0

100.0 98.0 99.8 #VALUE! 99.2 93.0 100.0 #VALUE!

West North 

Central

East North 

Central

Middle 

Atlantic

New 

England

South 

Atlantic

East South 

Central

West South 

Central

Mountain 

South

9.3 -0.6 -0.9 0.0 -1.8 4.0 -3.6 0.0

-9.3 0.3 0.8 0.0 1.6 -5.2 3.6 0.0

Region

Region

Builders
All Pacific Mountain 

North

West 

North 

Central

electric heat: heat pump 18.4 11.9 25.1 18.3

electric heat: electric furnace or baseboard 2.5 6.8 -0.1 14.7

gas heat: condensing natural gas furnaces 79.1 81.3 75.0 67.0

100.000 100.000 100.000 100.000

All Pacific Mountain 

North

West 

North 

Central

water heating: electric 3.3 -6.9 0.0 10.2

water heating: gas -4.6 10.6 -6.3 -9.3

All Pacific Mountain 

North

West 

North 

Central

Number of Respondents 589 33 30 80

Installation Contractors

Heating: Percent Change of Affected Homes Due to Rule Change (p

Installation Contractors

Water Heating: Percent Change of Affected Homes Due to Rule Chang

Installation Contractors

Number of Respondents

Number of total respondents is smaller than the sum of the respondents in the different regions because some 

is in the Middle Atlantic Region and the South Atlantic Region they are counted as a respondent in both of thos

questions 37 and 38 once and their answers are then counted twice.

Installation Contractors
All Pacific Mountain 

North

West 

North 

Central

electric heat: heat pump 6.0 3.6 7.4 4.3

electric heat: electric furnace or baseboard 0.8 2.1 0.0 3.5

gas heat: condensing natural gas furnaces 25.6 24.7 22.1 15.7

gas heat: minimum efficiency furnace -32.7 -29.3 -31.4 -23.3

98.7 103.6 93.7 100.8

Columns do not exactly sum to zero because of the "other combinations" category

All Pacific Mountain 

North

West 

North 

Central

water heating: electric 1.1 -2.0 0.0 2.4

water heating: gas -1.5 3.1 -2.0 -2.2

Columns do not exactly sum to zero because of the "other combinations" category

Installation Contractors
East 

North 

Central

Middle 

Atlantic

New 

England

South 

Atlantic

East 

South 

Central

West 

South 

Central

Mountain 

South

16.6 15.2 21.6 20.5 47.9 18.4 15.3

7.3 0.4 7.2 1.4 -0.1 -6.1 2.1

76.1 84.4 71.2 78.1 52.3 87.7 82.6

100.000 100.000 100.000 100.000 100.000 100.000 100.000

East 

North 

Central

Middle 

Atlantic

New 

England

South 

Atlantic

East 

South 

Central

West 

South 

Central

Mountain 

South

6.7 2.1 4.4 4.7 13.7 5.0 -3.1

-3.5 -2.0 -10.0 -6.6 -16.7 -6.3 -3.3

East 

North 

Central

Middle 

Atlantic

New 

England

South 

Atlantic

East 

South 

Central

West 

South 

Central

Mountain 

South

62 180 44 106 13 45 25

on Contractors

e to Rule Change (post - pre rule change percentages)

Region

on Contractors

 Due to Rule Change (post - pre rule change percentages)

Region

on Contractors

of Respondents

Region

nt regions because some repondents are in multiple regions. So, for example, if a respondent 

spondent in both of those regions. This creates a bit of a problem because they only answer 

on Contractors
East 

North 

Central

Middle 

Atlantic

New 

England

South 

Atlantic

East 

South 

Central

West 

South 

Central

Mountain 

South

4.4 4.3 6.0 8.5 19.9 7.6 8.6

1.9 0.1 2.0 0.6 -0.1 -2.5 1.2

20.2 24.0 19.6 32.4 21.7 36.3 46.4

-25.7 -28.5 -29.2 -42.3 -42.9 -41.9 -60.0

103.2 100.1 94.3 98.2 97.0 98.7 93.7

East 

North 

Central

Middle 

Atlantic

New 

England

South 

Atlantic

East 

South 

Central

West 

South 

Central

Mountain 

South

1.7 0.6 1.3 2.0 5.9 2.1 -1.8

-0.9 -0.6 -2.9 -2.8 -7.2 -2.6 -2.0

Region

Region

on Contractors
All Pacific Mountain 

North

West North 

Central

East North 

Central

Percentage that change 

from gas to electric heat 4.4 12.5 0 1.9 0.5

Pre-rule change electric 

heat 11.3 9.6 0.0 6.8 5.5

Pre-rule change condensing 

natural gas furnaces 66.0 86.1 100.0 69.4 76.8

Pre-rule change minimum 

efficiency furnaces 21.1 4.3 0.0 23.8 14.9

Unknown 1.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.8

Post-rule change electric 

heat 15.6 22.1 0.0 8.7 5.9

Post-rule change 

condensing natural gas 

furnaces

82.5 77.9 100.0 91.3 91.0

Unknown 1.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.1

Estimate of Gas Heating 

from Question 7 53.4

Estimate of Current 

Condensing from Question 7 36.2

100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

4.3 12.5 0.0 1.9 0.4

4.6 12.5 0.0 1.9 0.7

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Heating

Builders
All Pacific Mountain 

North

West North 

Central

East North 

Central

Percentage that change 

from gas to electric water 

heaters

2.2 3.9 0 9.3 -0.4

Pre-rule change electric 

water heater 19.9 9.6 0.0 21.9 11.5

Pre-rule change gas water 

heater 78.4 90.4 100.0 78.0 85.6

Unknown 1.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.8

Post-rule change electric 

water heater 22.0 13.6 0.0 31.2 10.9

Post-rule change natural gas 

water heater 76.1 86.4 100.0 68.8 85.9

Unknown 1.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.1

100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

2.1 3.9 0.0 9.3 -0.6

2.3 3.9 0.0 9.3 -0.3

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

All Pacific Mountain 

North

West North 

Central

East North 

Central

water heating: electric 2.1 3.9 0.0 9.3 -0.6

water heating: gas -2.3 -3.9 0.0 -9.3 0.3

-0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.3

Columns do not exactly sum to zero because of the "other combinations" category

Builders
Middle 

Atlantic New England South Atlantic

East South 

Central

West South 

Central

Mountain 

South

4.7 0 6.9 2 0 0

5.8 0.0 12.7 24.4 28.6 0.0

70.2 100.0 60.8 55.9 50.0 100.0

22.9 0.0 24.6 17.0 21.4 0.0

1.2 0.0 1.9 2.6 0.0 0.0

10.4 0.0 19.5 25.9 28.6 0.0

88.4 100.0 78.4 70.3 71.4 100.0

1.2 0.0 2.1 3.8 0.0 0.0

100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

4.6 0.0 6.8 1.4 0.0 0.0

4.7 0.0 7.0 2.6 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Region
Middle 

Atlantic New England South Atlantic

East South 

Central

West South 

Central

Mountain 

South

-0.8 0 -1.7 4.6 -3.6 0

13.5 6.7 25.7 29.8 35.7 0.0

85.4 93.3 72.4 67.6 64.3 100.0

1.2 0.0 1.9 2.6 0.0 0.0

12.6 6.7 23.9 33.8 32.1 0.0

86.2 93.3 74.0 62.4 67.9 100.0

1.2 0.0 2.1 3.8 0.0 0.0

100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

-0.9 0.0 -1.8 4.0 -3.6 0.0

-0.8 0.0 -1.6 5.2 -3.6 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Middle 

Atlantic New England South Atlantic

East South 

Central

West South 

Central

Mountain 

South

-0.9 0.0 -1.8 4.0 -3.6 0.0

0.8 0.0 1.6 -5.2 3.6 0.0

0.0 0.0 -0.2 -1.2 0.0 0.0

Region

Region
All Pacific Mountain 

North

West North 

Central

Pre-rule change percentage of electric heat 

with heat pump 77.2 14.8 n/a 100.0

Pre-rule change percentage of electric heat 

with electric furnace or baseboard 22.8 85.2 n/a 0.0

Post-rule change percentage of electric heat 

with heat pump 87.9 71.0 n/a 86.5

Post-rule change percentage of electric heat 

with electric furnace or baseboard 12.1 29.0 n/a 13.5

All Pacific Mountain 

North

West North 

Central

Pre-rule change percentage of electric heat 

with heat pump 8.7 1.4 n/a 6.8

Pre-rule change percentage of electric heat 

with electric furnace or baseboard 2.6 8.2 n/a 0.0

Pre-rule change condensing natural gas 

furnaces 66.0 86.1 100.0 69.4

Pre-rule change minimum efficiency furnaces 21.1 4.3 0.0 23.8

Unknown 1.7 0.0 0.0 0.0

Post-rule change percentage of electric heat 

with heat pump 13.7 15.7 n/a 7.5

Post-rule change percentage of electric heat 

with electric furnace or baseboard 1.9 6.4 n/a 1.2

Post-rule change condensing natural gas 

furnaces 82.5 77.9 100.0 91.3

Unknown 1.9 0.0 0.0 0.0

Heating: Electric heating types (percentages are percenta

Heating: Breakout by heating type (percentages 
100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
East North 

Central

Middle 

Atlantic

New 

England

South 

Atlantic

East South 

Central

West South 

Central

Mountain 

South

65.9 70.0 n/a 78.4 85.6 62.5 n/a

34.1 30.0 n/a 21.6 14.4 37.5 n/a

100.0 92.3 n/a 86.2 97.3 62.5 n/a

0.0 7.7 n/a 13.8 2.7 37.5 n/a

East North 

Central

Middle 

Atlantic

New 

England

South 

Atlantic

East South 

Central

West South 

Central

Mountain 

South

3.6 4.0 n/a 10.0 20.9 17.9 n/a

1.9 1.7 n/a 2.8 3.5 10.7 n/a

76.8 70.2 100.0 60.8 55.9 50.0 100.0

14.9 22.9 0.0 24.6 17.0 21.4 0.0

2.8 1.2 0.0 1.9 2.6 0.0 0.0

5.9 9.6 n/a 16.8 25.2 17.9 n/a

0.0 0.8 n/a 2.7 0.7 10.7 n/a

91.0 88.4 100.0 78.4 70.3 71.4 100.0

3.1 1.2 0.0 2.1 3.8 0.0 0.0

percentages are percentage of electric only)

Region

eating type (percentages are overall)

Region
100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
All Pacific Mountain 

North

West North 

Central

East North 

Central

electric heat: heat pump 5.0 14.3 n/a 0.7 2.2

electric heat: electric furnace or baseboard -0.7 -1.8 n/a 1.2 -1.9

gas heat: condensing natural gas furnaces 16.5 -8.2 0.0 21.9 14.2

gas heat: minimum efficiency furnace -21.1 -4.3 0.0 -23.8 -14.9

-0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.3

Builders

Heating: Percent Change Due to Rule Change (post - pre rule ch

Columns do not exactly sum to zero because of the "other combinations" category

Middle 

Atlantic

New 

England

South 

Atlantic

East South 

Central

West South 

Central

Mountain 

South

5.6 n/a 6.9 4.2 0.0 n/a

-0.9 n/a -0.1 -2.8 0.0 n/a

18.2 0.0 17.6 14.4 21.4 0.0

-22.9 0.0 -24.6 -17.0 -21.4 0.0

0.0 0.0 -0.2 -1.2 0.0 0.0

 (post - pre rule change percentages)

Region
All Pacific Mountain 

North

West North 

Central

East North 

Central

Percentage that change from gas 

to electric heat 7 5.1 8.4 7.7 5.9

Pre-rule change electric heat 11.3 11.5 6.1 8.6 9.5

Pre-rule change condensing 

natural gas furnaces 51.3 47.0 55.9 65.1 62.2

Pre-rule change minimum 

efficiency furnaces 32.7 29.3 31.4 23.3 25.7

Unknown 4.6 12.3 6.7 3.0 2.7

Post-rule change electric heat 18.1 17.1 13.4 16.4 15.8

Post-rule change condensing 

natural gas furnaces 76.9 71.7 77.9 80.8 82.4

Unknown 5.0 11.2 8.6 2.8 1.8

100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

6.8 5.7 7.4 7.8 6.3

7.2 4.6 9.3 7.6 5.5

0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0

Heating
All Pacific Mountain 

North

West North 

Central

East North 

Central

Percentage that change from gas 

to electric heat 1.3 -2.6 1 2.3 1.3

Pre-rule change electric water 

heater 12.3 11.4 3.1 9.9 11.7

Pre-rule change gas water heater 83.1 76.3 90.3 87.1 85.7

Unknown 4.6 12.3 6.7 3.0 2.7

Post-rule change electric water 

heater 13.4 9.4 3.1 12.2 13.4

Post-rule change natural gas 

water heater 81.6 79.4 88.3 85.0 84.8

Unknown 5.0 11.2 8.6 2.8 1.8

100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

1.1 -2.0 0.0 2.4 1.7

1.5 -3.1 2.0 2.2 0.9

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

All Pacific Mountain 

North

West North 

Central

East North 

Central

water heating: electric 1.1 -2.0 0.0 2.4 1.7

water heating: gas -1.5 3.1 -2.0 -2.2 -0.9

-0.4 1.1 -2.0 0.2 0.8

Water Heating

Installation Contractors

Water Heating: Percent Change Due to Rule Change (post - pre rule 
Middle 

Atlantic New England South Atlantic

East South 

Central

West South 

Central

Mountain 

South

4.4 8.8 9.5 20.5 5.4 11.7

7.3 6.8 19.3 22.9 18.0 14.8

59.9 59.5 33.6 32.5 33.5 20.6

28.5 29.2 42.3 42.9 41.9 60.0

4.3 4.5 4.8 1.8 6.6 4.6

11.8 14.7 28.4 42.7 23.1 24.6

83.9 79.1 66.0 54.2 69.8 67.0

4.3 6.2 5.6 3.1 7.1 8.4

100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

4.5 7.9 9.1 19.8 5.1 9.8

4.4 9.6 9.9 21.1 5.6 13.6

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Region
Middle 

Atlantic New England South Atlantic

East South 

Central

West South 

Central

Mountain 

South

0.6 2.1 2.4 6.5 2.4 0.1

8.7 10.0 20.0 31.4 18.4 10.8

87.0 85.5 75.2 66.8 75.0 84.6

4.3 4.5 4.8 1.8 6.6 4.6

9.3 11.3 22.0 37.3 20.5 9.0

86.4 82.5 72.4 59.6 72.4 82.6

4.3 6.2 5.6 3.1 7.1 8.4

100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

0.6 1.3 2.0 5.9 2.1 -1.8

0.6 2.9 2.8 7.2 2.6 2.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Middle 

Atlantic New England South Atlantic

East South 

Central

West South 

Central

Mountain 

South

0.6 1.3 2.0 5.9 2.1 -1.8

-0.6 -2.9 -2.8 -7.2 -2.6 -2.0

0.0 -1.7 -0.8 -1.3 -0.5 -3.8

r Heating

n Contractors

le Change (post - pre rule change percentages)

Region

Region
All Pacific Mountain 

North

West North 

Central

East North 

Central

Pre-rule change percentage of 

electric heat with heat pump 78.2 87.3 78.0 87.4 76.2

Pre-rule change percentage of 

electric heat with electric furnace or 

baseboard

21.8 12.7 22.0 12.6 23.8

Post-rule change percentage of 

electric heat with heat pump 81.9 79.5 90.3 72.3 73.5

Post-rule change percentage of 

electric heat with electric furnace or 

baseboard

18.1 20.5 9.7 27.7 26.5

All Pacific Mountain 

North

West North 

Central

East North 

Central

Pre-rule change percentage of 

electric heat with heat pump 8.9 10.0 4.7 7.6 7.2

Pre-rule change percentage of 

electric heat with electric furnace or 

baseboard

2.5 1.5 1.3 1.1 2.3

Pre-rule change condensing natural 

gas furnaces 51.3 47.0 55.9 65.1 62.2

Pre-rule change minimum efficiency 

furnaces 32.7 29.3 31.4 23.3 25.7

Unknown 4.6 12.3 6.7 3.0 2.7

Post-rule change percentage of 

electric heat with heat pump 14.8 13.6 12.1 11.9 11.6

Post-rule change percentage of 

electric heat with electric furnace or 

baseboard

3.3 3.5 1.3 4.5 4.2

Heating: Electric heating types (percentages are percentage of 

Heating: Breakout by heating type (percentages are ov
Post-rule change condensing natural 

gas furnaces 76.9 71.7 77.9 80.8 82.4

Unknown 5.0 11.2 8.6 2.8 1.8

100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
Middle 

Atlantic

New 

England

South 

Atlantic

East South 

Central

West South 

Central

Mountain 

South

71.3 65.7 85.0 81.3 64.9 90.5

28.7 34.3 15.0 18.8 35.1 9.5

81.1 70.7 87.7 90.1 83.5 89.4

18.9 29.3 12.3 9.9 16.5 10.6

Middle 

Atlantic

New 

England

South 

Atlantic

East South 

Central

West South 

Central

Mountain 

South

5.2 4.5 16.4 18.6 11.7 13.4

2.1 2.3 2.9 4.3 6.3 1.4

59.9 59.5 33.6 32.5 33.5 20.6

28.5 29.2 42.3 42.9 41.9 60.0

4.3 4.5 4.8 1.8 6.6 4.6

9.6 10.4 24.9 38.5 19.3 22.0

2.2 4.3 3.5 4.2 3.8 2.6

ntages are percentage of electric only)

Region

type (percentages are overall)

Region
83.9 79.1 66.0 54.2 69.8 67.0

4.3 6.2 5.6 3.1 7.1 8.4

100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
All Pacific Mountain 

North

West North 

Central

electric heat: heat pump 6.0 3.6 7.4 4.3

electric heat: electric furnace or 

baseboard 0.8 2.1 0.0 3.5

gas heat: condensing natural gas 

furnaces 25.6 24.7 22.1 15.7

gas heat: minimum efficiency 

furnace -32.7 -29.3 -31.4 -23.3

-0.4 1.1 -2.0 0.2

Installation Contractors

Heating: Percent Change Due to Rule Change (post - pre r

Columns do not exactly sum to zero because of the "other combinations" category

East North 

Central

Middle 

Atlantic New England South Atlantic East South Central

West South 

Central

Mountain 

South

4.4 4.3 6.0 8.5 19.9 7.6 8.6

1.9 0.1 2.0 0.6 -0.1 -2.5 1.2

20.2 24.0 19.6 32.4 21.7 36.3 46.4

-25.7 -28.5 -29.2 -42.3 -42.9 -41.9 -60.0

0.8 0.0 -1.7 -0.8 -1.3 -0.5 -3.8

Installation Contractors

ue to Rule Change (post - pre rule change percentages)

Region
21

8

30

35

19

14

29

23

46

15

21 21

18

27

33

23

16

30

22

48

13

20

4

-9

3

10

5

2

7

6

15

6

0

33

29

31

23

26

28 29

42 43 42

60

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

%

of ho

mes affected by potential standard change

%

of affected ho

mes changing (if standard changes fro

m condensing to noncondensing

Fuel Switching as a Percentage of Affected Homes - Installation Contractors

when standard goes from non-condensing to condensing

Went from all gas to not all gas

Went from gas heat to electric heat

Went from gas water heating to electric water heating

Percent of Homes Affected
Type of Respondent: Home Builder

State of Respondent: ALLCensus Region: ALLNumber of Homes Built: ALLRespondents: 2Home Builders (9, 10, 12, 13)

0% 1-5%

Number 175 13

Percent 68.4 5.1

0% 1-5%

Number 149 18

Percent 58.2 7.0

Heating: minimum 

efficiency (noncondensing) furnace; 

Water heating: natural 

gas

Heating: high 

efficiency 

(condensing) 

furnace; Water 

heating: natural 

gas

Heating: electric 

heat pump; 

Water heating: 

natural gas

17.2 57.4 3.2

Heating: high 

efficiency 

(condensing) 

furnace; Water 

heating: natural 

gas

Heating: electric 

heat pump; 

Water heating: 

natural gas

68.9 7.0

Question 9

Type of Respondent: Home BuilderState 

of Respondent: ALLCensus Region: 

ALLNumber of Homes Built: ALL

Respondents: 256

Of the homes you completed in the past year with minimum efficiency (non-conde

Question 10

Type of Respondent: Home BuilderState 

of Respondent: ALLCensus Region: 

ALLNumber of Homes Built: ALL

Of the homes you completed in the past year wi

Question 12

Type of Respondent: Home BuilderState 

of Respondent: ALLCensus Region: 

ALLNumber of Homes Built: ALL

Respondents: 205

If natural gas is available in the area and the Federal min. efficiency requirement 

installations would be in each of the following categories?

Question 13

Type of Respondent: Home BuilderState 

of Respondent: ALLCensus Region: 

ALLNumber of Homes Built: ALL

Respondents: 206

If natural gas is currently available in the area and the Federal min. eff. requireme

installations would be in each of the following categories?

Change in responses if federal minimum efficiency requirement changes to high 
Heating: minimum 

efficiency (noncondensing) furnace; 

Water heating: natural 

gas

Heating: high 

efficiency 

(condensing) 

furnace; Water 

heating: natural 

gas

Heating: electric 

heat pump; 

Water heating: 

natural gas

-17.2 11.4 3.8

Fuel Switching

Went from gas heat to 

electric heat

Went from gas 

water heating to 

electric water 

heating

8.9 4.4

All States (regardless of selection)

Location Respondents

Heating: 

minimum 

efficiency (noncondensing) 

furnace; Water 

heating: natural 

gas

ALL 205 17.2

Pacific 14 4.3

Mountain North 1 0.0

West North Central 34 17.6

East North Central 67 14.9

Middle Atlantic 26 22.5

New England 6 0.0

South Atlantic 53 18.4

East South Central 27 9.6

West South Central 7 14.3

Mountain South 1 0.0

AK 0

AL 11 17.7

AR 4 0.0

AZ 0

CA 1 0.0

CO 0

CT 0

DC 0

Type of Respondent: Home BuilderState 

of Respondent: ALLCensus Region: 

ALLNumber of Homes Built: ALL

Respondents: 205

Question 12

Type of Respondent: Home BuilderState 

of Respondent: ALLCensus Region: 

ALLNumber of Homes Built: ALL

Respondents: 205

 Natural gas is available in the area and the Federal min. efficiency requirement f

following categories?

Census Region
DE

1 0.0

FL2 75.0

GA 36 14.3

HI0

IA0

ID0

IL 25 20.6

IN 17 4.4

KS0

KY4 8.8

LA0

MA2 0.0

MD1 0.0

ME0

MI7 14.3

MN 10 0.5

MO 14 37.5

MS2 10.0

MT0

NC5 22.0

ND0

NE 11 10.9

NH0

NJ 12 35.0

NM0

NV0

NY0

OH 12 17.3

OK0

OR8 7.5

PA5 33.0

RI0

SC1 100.0

SD0

TN4 2.5

TX2 50.0

UT0

VA5 20.0

VT0

WA3 0.0

WI0

WV0

WY0

States
Location Respondents

ALL 206 0

Pacific 14

Mountain North 1

West North Central 34

East North Central 67

Middle Atlantic 25

New England 6

South Atlantic 53

East South Central 29

West South Central 7

Mountain South 1

AK 0

AL 13

AR 4

AZ 0

CA 1

CO 0

CT 0

DC 0

DE 1

FL 2

GA 36

HI 0

IA 0

ID 0

IL 25

IN 17

KS 0

KY 4

LA 0

MA 2

MD 1

ME 0

MI 7

MN 10

MO 14

MS 2

MT 0

Question 13

Type of Respondent: Home BuilderState 

of Respondent: ALLCensus Region: 

ALLNumber of Homes Built: ALL

Respondents: 206

If natural gas is currently available in the area and the Federal min. eff. requireme

the following categories?

Census Region

States
NC 5

ND 0

NE 11

NH 0

NJ 11

NM 0

NV 0

NY 0

OH 12

OK 0

OR 8

PA 5

RI 0

SC 1

SD 0

TN 4

TX 2

UT 0

VA 5

VT 0

WA 3

WI 0

WV 0

WY 0

Location Respondents

Heating: 

minimum 

efficiency (noncondensing) 

furnace; Water 

heating: natural 

gas

ALL 205 -17.2

Pacific 14 -4.3

Mountain North 1 0.0

West North Central 34

-17.6

Type of Respondent: Home BuilderState 

of Respondent: ALLCensus Region: 

ALLNumber of Homes Built: ALL

Respondents: 205

Change in Percent of Installs if Minimum Standard Becomes Condensing
East North Central 67 -14.9

Middle Atlantic 25 -22.5

New England

6 0.0

South Atlantic 53 -18.4

East South Central 27 -9.6

West South Central

7

-14.3

Mountain South

1 0.0

AK

0 n/a

AL 11 -17.7

AR

4 0.0

AZ

0 n/a

CA

1 0.0

CO

0 n/a

CT

0 n/a

DC

0 n/a

DE

1 0.0

FL

2 -75.0

GA 36 -14.3

HI

0 n/a

IA

0 n/a

ID

0 n/a

IL 25 -20.6

IN 17 -4.4

KS

0 n/a

KY

4 -8.8

LA

0 n/a

MA

2 0.0

MD

1 0.0

ME

0 n/a

MI

7 -14.3

MN 10 -0.5

MO 14 -37.5

MS

2 -10.0

MT

0 n/a

NC

5 -22.0

ND

0 n/a

NE 11 -10.9

NH

0 n/a

NJ 11 -35.0

NM

0 n/a

NV

0 n/a

NY

0 n/a

OH 12 -17.3

OK

0 n/a

OR

8 -7.5

PA

5 -33.0

Census Region

States
RI 0 n/a

SC 1 -100.0

SD 0 n/a

TN 4 -2.5

TX 2 -50.0

UT 0 n/a

VA 5 -20.0

VT 0 n/a

WA 3 0.0

WI 0 n/a

WV 0 n/a

WY 0 n/a

Type of Respondent: Home BuilderState 

of Respondent: ALLCensus Region: 

ALLNumber of Homes Built: ALL

Respondents: 205

Location Respondents Went from all gas 

to not all gas

ALL 205 5.8

Pacific 14 12.5

Mountain North 1 0.0

West North Central 34 9.0

East North Central 67 0.8

Middle Atlantic 25 3.0

New England 6 0.0

South Atlantic 53 5.2

East South Central 27 7.5

West South Central 7 -3.6

Mountain South 1 0.0

AK 0 n/a

AL 11 7.0

AR 4 -6.3

AZ 0 n/a

CA 1 0.0

CO 0 n/a

CT 0 n/a

DC 0 n/a

DE 1 0.0

FL 2 0.0

GA 36 5.5

Fuel Switching Buidlers
HI

0 n/a

IA0 n/a

ID0 n/a

IL 25 -1.6

IN 17 6.2

KS0 n/a

KY4 2.5

LA0 n/a

MA2 0.0

MD1 -25.0

ME0 n/a

MI7 -1.4

MN 10 1.1

MO 14 18.9

MS2 5.0

MT0 n/a

NC5 5.0

ND0 n/a

NE 11 2.6

NH0 n/a

NJ 11 6.7

NM0 n/a

NV0 n/a

NY0 n/a

OH 12 0.0

OK0 n/a

OR8 25.0

PA5 4.0

RI0 n/a

SC1 0.0

SD0 n/a

TN4 21.3

TX2 0.0

UT0 n/a

VA5 20.0

VT0 n/a

WA3 0.0

WI0 n/a

WV0 n/a

WY0 n/a
Location ALL Pacific

Respondents 205 14

Heating: minimum 

efficiency (noncondensing) furnace; 

Water heating: natural 

gas 17.2 4.3

Heating: high efficiency 

(condensing) furnace; 

Water heating: natural 

gas 57.4 86.1

Heating: electric heat 

pump; Water heating: 

natural gas 3.2 0.0

Heating: electric 

furnace or baseboard; 

Water heating: natural 

gas 0.6 0.0

Heating: minimum 

efficiency (noncondensing) furnace; 

Water heating: electric 3.9 0.0

Heating: high efficiency 

(condensing) furnace; 

Water heating: electric 8.5 0.0

Heating: electric heat 

pump; Water heating: 

electric 5.5 1.4

Heating: electric 

furnace or baseboard; 

Water heating: electric 2.0 8.2

Other combinations 1.7 0.0

Question 12

 Natural gas is available in the area and 

the Federal min. efficiency requirement 

for natural gas furnaces is the same as it 

is today. What % of your new home 

installations would be in each of the 

following categories?
Location ALL Pacific

Respondents 206 14

0

Heating: high efficiency 

(condensing) furnace; 

Water heating: natural 

gas 68.9 77.9

Heating: electric heat 

pump; Water heating: 

natural gas 7.0 8.6

Heating: electric 

furnace or baseboard; 

Water heating: natural 

gas 0.3 0.0

0.0

Heating: high efficiency 

(condensing) furnace; 

Water heating: electric 13.7 0.0

Heating: electric heat 

pump; Water heating: 

electric 6.7 7.1

Heating: electric 

furnace or baseboard; 

Water heating: electric 1.6 6.4

Other combinations 1.9 0.0

If natural gas is currently available in the 

area and the Federal min. eff. requirement 

has changed to high eff. (condensing) 

furnaces. What % of your new home 

installations would be in each of the 

following categories?

Question 13
Question 37

Type of Respondent: 

Installing 

ContractorState of 

Respondent: ALLCensus 

Region: ALLNumber of 

Gas Furnaces Installed: 

ALLInstalls in New 

Construction: 

ALLPerforms 

Replacements in Existing 

Homes: ALL

Respondents: 599

Location ALL Pacific

Respondents 599 33

Heating: minimum 

efficiency (noncondensing) furnace; 

Water heating: natural 

gas 30.4 26.2

Heating: high efficiency 

(condensing) furnace; 

Water heating: natural 

gas 48.1 44.5

Heating: electric heat 

pump; Water heating: 

natural gas 3.4 4.8

Heating: electric 

furnace or baseboard; 

Water heating: natural 

gas 1.2 0.7

Heating: minimum 

efficiency (noncondensing) furnace; 

Water heating: electric 2.4 3.0

Heating: high efficiency 

(condensing) furnace; 

Water heating: electric 3.2 2.5
Heating: electric heat 

pump; Water heating: 

electric 5.5 5.2

Heating: electric 

furnace or baseboard; 

Water heating: electric 1.3 0.7

Other combinations 4.6 12.3

Location ALL Pacific

Respondents 589 33

Heating: high efficiency 

(condensing) furnace; 

Water heating: natural 

gas 71.8 68.4

Heating: electric heat 

pump; Water heating: 

natural gas 8.1 8.5

Heating: electric 

furnace or baseboard; 

Water heating: natural 

gas 1.8 2.5

Heating: high efficiency 

(condensing) furnace; 

Water heating: electric 5.1 3.3

Heating: electric heat 

pump; Water heating: 

electric 6.8 5.1

Heating: electric 

furnace or baseboard; 

Water heating: electric 1.5 1.0

Other combinations 5.0 11.2

If natural gas is currently used for heating 

and water heating, and the Federal 

minimum requirement remains as it is 

today for gas furnaces. What percentage 

of your replacements would be:

Question 38

If natural gas is currently used for heating 

and water heating, and the Federal 

minimum requirement has changed to 

high-efficiency gas furnaces. What 

percentage of your replacements would 

be:
10, 12, 13)

6-10% 11-15% 16-20% 21-40% 41-60% 61-80%

7 3 9 9 6 4

2.7 1.2 3.5 3.5 2.3 1.6

6-10% 11-15% 16-20% 21-40% 41-60% 61-80%

7 3 6 10 13 7

2.7 1.2 2.3 3.9 5.1 2.7

Heating: electric 

furnace or 

baseboard; Water 

heating: natural 

gas

Heating: 

minimum 

efficiency (noncondensing) 

furnace; Water 

heating: 

electric

Heating: high 

efficiency 

(condensing) 

furnace; Water 

heating: 

electric

Heating: 

electric heat 

pump; Water 

heating: 

electric

Heating: 

electric furnace 

or baseboard; 

Water heating: 

electric

Other 

combinations

0.6 3.9 8.5 5.5 2.0 1.7

Heating: electric 

furnace or 

baseboard; Water 

heating: natural 

gas

Heating: high 

efficiency 

(condensing) 

furnace; Water 

heating: 

electric

Heating: 

electric heat 

pump; Water 

heating: 

electric

Heating: 

electric furnace 

or baseboard; 

Water heating: 

electric

Other 

combinations

0.3 13.7 6.7 1.6 1.9

inimum efficiency (non-condensing) furnaces, what percent had electric water heaters?

completed in the past year with high efficiency (condensing) furnaces, what percent had electric water heaters?

l min. efficiency requirement for natural gas furnaces is the same as it is today. What % of your new home 

he Federal min. eff. requirement has changed to high eff. (condensing) furnaces. What % of your new home 

equirement changes to high efficiency (condensing) furnaces
Heating: electric 

furnace or 

baseboard; Water 

heating: natural 

gas

Heating: 

minimum 

efficiency (noncondensing) 

furnace; Water 

heating: 

electric

Heating: high 

efficiency 

(condensing) 

furnace; Water 

heating: 

electric

Heating: 

electric heat 

pump; Water 

heating: 

electric

Heating: 

electric furnace 

or baseboard; 

Water heating: 

electric

Other 

combinations

-0.3 -3.9 5.1 1.2 -0.4 0.2

Heating: high 

efficiency 

(condensing) 

furnace; Water 

heating: natural 

gas

Heating: 

electric heat 

pump; Water 

heating: 

natural gas

Heating: 

electric furnace 

or baseboard; 

Water heating: 

natural gas

Heating: 

minimum 

efficiency (noncondensing) 

furnace; Water 

heating: 

electric

Heating: high 

efficiency 

(condensing) 

furnace; Water 

heating: 

electric

Heating: 

electric heat 

pump; Water 

heating: 

electric

57.4 3.2 0.6 3.9 8.5 5.5

86.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.4

100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

54.9 5.4 0.0 6.1 14.5 1.4

69.7 1.0 0.0 0.0 7.1 2.6

62.1 0.4 0.4 0.4 8.1 3.7

93.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.7 0.0

49.4 4.6 0.0 6.2 11.3 5.4

49.4 5.4 3.1 7.4 6.5 15.6

46.4 0.0 3.6 7.1 3.6 17.9

100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

30.5 12.3 0.0 8.2 1.8 29.5

50.0 0.0 0.0 12.5 6.3 31.3

100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

 min. efficiency requirement for natural gas furnaces is the same as it is today. What % of your new home installations would be in eac
100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

25.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

48.2 6.3 0.0 8.8 12.3 6.6

73.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 1.6

68.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 15.6 7.1

27.5 2.5 21.3 2.5 15.0 15.0

100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

70.0 0.0 0.0 5.0 0.0 25.0

61.4 8.6 0.0 0.0 15.0 0.7

65.3 1.0 0.0 16.8 14.4 2.0

31.4 11.4 0.0 2.9 16.4 0.4

90.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

27.0 3.0 0.0 2.0 22.0 20.0

75.0 1.4 0.0 0.0 10.7 1.9

55.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.2 0.0

63.8 0.8 0.0 0.0 4.6 0.2

91.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.3

51.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

68.8 0.0 0.0 25.0 1.3 2.5

12.5 0.0 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0

57.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.0 1.0

66.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.3
Heating: high 

efficiency 

(condensing) 

furnace; Water 

heating: natural 

gas

Heating: 

electric heat 

pump; Water 

heating: 

natural gas

Heating: 

electric furnace 

or baseboard; 

Water heating: 

natural gas

Heating: high 

efficiency 

(condensing) 

furnace; Water 

heating: 

electric

Heating: 

electric heat 

pump; Water 

heating: 

electric

68.9 7.0 0.3 0.0 13.7 6.7

77.9 8.6 0.0 0.0 7.1

100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

63.6 5.1 0.0 27.6 2.4

83.8 2.2 0.0 7.2 3.7

81.6 4.2 0.4 6.8 5.4

93.3 0.0 0.0 6.7 0.0

62.6 11.2 0.2 15.7 5.7

51.6 10.5 0.3 18.8 14.7

64.3 0.0 3.6 7.1 17.9

100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

41.2 16.2 0.0 16.5 26.2

56.3 0.0 0.0 12.5 31.3

100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

56.9 10.6 0.3 22.1 5.9

96.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8

66.8 4.7 0.0 17.4 7.1

33.8 21.3 2.5 15.0 15.0

100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

95.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.0

77.1 7.9 0.0 15.0 0.0

64.7 1.0 0.0 32.3 2.0

50.0 10.7 0.0 33.6 2.9

95.0 5.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

he Federal min. eff. requirement has changed to high eff. (condensing) furnaces. What % of your new home installations would be in ea
44.0 26.0 0.0 12.0 16.0

83.3 1.4 0.0 13.4 1.9

84.1 6.8 0.0 0.0 9.1

81.1 0.8 0.0 4.6 8.5

73.8 15.0 0.0 0.0 11.3

80.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 6.0

100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

50.0 0.0 0.0 50.0 0.0

62.5 0.0 12.5 0.0 0.0

57.0 20.0 0.0 6.0 1.0

66.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.3

Heating: high 

efficiency 

(condensing) 

furnace; Water 

heating: natural 

gas

Heating: 

electric heat 

pump; Water 

heating: 

natural gas

Heating: 

electric furnace 

or baseboard; 

Water heating: 

natural gas

Heating: 

minimum 

efficiency (noncondensing) 

furnace; Water 

heating: 

electric

Heating: high 

efficiency 

(condensing) 

furnace; Water 

heating: 

electric

Heating: 

electric heat 

pump; Water 

heating: 

electric

11.4 3.8 -0.3 -3.9 5.1 1.2

-8.2 8.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.7

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

8.7 -0.3 0.0 -6.1 13.2 1.0

Becomes Condensing
14.1 1.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.1

19.5 3.8 0.0 -0.4 -1.3 1.7

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

13.2 6.6 0.2 -6.2 4.4 0.3

2.1 5.1 -2.8 -7.4 12.3 -0.9

17.9 0.0 0.0 -7.1 3.6 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a

10.7 3.9 0.0 -8.2 14.7 -3.4

6.3 0.0 0.0 -12.5 6.3 0.0

n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a

n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a

n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

75.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

8.8 4.3 0.3 -8.8 9.8 -0.7

n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a

n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a

n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a

22.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.8 -0.8

-1.8 4.7 0.0 0.0 1.8 0.0

n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a

6.3 18.8 -18.8 -2.5 0.0 0.0

n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

25.0 0.0 0.0 -5.0 0.0 -20.0

n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a

15.7 -0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.7

-0.6 0.0 0.0 -16.8 17.9 0.0

18.6 -0.7 0.0 -2.9 17.1 2.5

5.0 5.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a

17.0 23.0 0.0 -2.0 -10.0 -4.0

n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a

8.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.6 0.0

n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a

28.3 6.8 0.0 0.0 -9.2 9.1

n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a

n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a

n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a

17.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.3

n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a

-17.5 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.0

29.0 0.0 0.0 -2.0 0.0 4.0
n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a

100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a

-18.8 0.0 0.0 -25.0 48.8 -2.5

50.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a

0.0 20.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a

n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a

n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a

Went from gas 

heat to electric 

heat

Went from gas 

water heating 

to electric 

water heating

4.4 2.2

12.5 3.9

0.0 0.0

1.9 9.3

0.5 -0.4

4.7 -0.8

0.0 0.0

6.9 -1.7

2.0 4.6

0.0 -3.6

0.0 0.0

n/a n/a

0.5 3.1

0.0 -6.3

n/a n/a

0.0 0.0

n/a n/a

n/a n/a

n/a n/a

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

4.6 1.1
n/a n/a

n/a n/a

n/a n/a

-0.8 -1.6

3.8 0.9

n/a n/a

2.5 0.0

n/a n/a

0.0 0.0

-20.0 -25.0

n/a n/a

-1.4 -0.7

0.0 1.1

4.6 19.6

5.0 0.0

n/a n/a

16.0 -19.0

n/a n/a

0.0 2.6

n/a n/a

15.9 -0.1

n/a n/a

n/a n/a

n/a n/a

0.0 0.0

n/a n/a

25.0 10.0

5.0 3.0

n/a n/a

0.0 0.0

n/a n/a

-2.5 21.3

0.0 0.0

n/a n/a

20.0 0.0

n/a n/a

0.0 0.0

n/a n/a

n/a n/a

n/a n/a
Mountain North

West North 

Central

East North 

Central Middle Atlantic New England South Atlantic

1 34 67 26 6 53

0.0 17.6 14.9 22.5 0.0 18.4

100.0 54.9 69.7 62.1 93.3 49.4

0.0 5.4 1.0 0.4 0.0 4.6

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.0

0.0 6.1 0.0 0.4 0.0 6.2

0.0 14.5 7.1 8.1 6.7 11.3

0.0 1.4 2.6 3.7 0.0 5.4

0.0 0.0 1.9 1.3 0.0 2.7

0.0 0.0 2.8 1.2 0.0 1.9

Census Region
Mountain North

West North 

Central

East North 

Central Middle Atlantic New England South Atlantic

1 34 67 25 6 53

100.0 63.6 83.8 81.6 93.3 62.6

0.0 5.1 2.2 4.2 0.0 11.2

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.2

0.0 27.6 7.2 6.8 6.7 15.7

0.0 2.4 3.7 5.4 0.0 5.7

0.0 1.2 0.0 0.4 0.0 2.5

0.0 0.0 3.1 1.2 0.0 2.1

Census Region
Mountain North

West North 

Central

East North 

Central Middle Atlantic New England South Atlantic

30 80 64 180 46 108

30.4 21.6 23.5 26.3 25.0 39.4

54.9 61.4 58.3 57.2 57.0 30.2

4.1 3.7 3.0 2.6 2.3 4.3

0.9 0.4 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.3

1.0 1.6 2.3 2.2 4.2 2.9

1.0 3.6 3.9 2.7 2.4 3.3

Census Region
0.7 3.9 4.2 2.7 2.2 12.1

0.4 0.7 1.3 1.1 1.1 1.6

6.7 3.0 2.7 4.3 4.5 4.8

Mountain North

West North 

Central

East North 

Central Middle Atlantic New England South Atlantic

30 80 62 180 44 106

75.8 75.0 76.7 79.5 73.5 60.1

11.4 7.5 5.6 5.7 7.0 10.8

1.1 2.4 2.4 1.2 2.0 1.5

2.2 5.7 5.6 4.5 5.6 5.9

0.7 4.3 6.0 3.9 3.4 14.0

0.2 2.2 1.8 1.0 2.3 2.0

8.6 2.8 1.8 4.3 6.2 5.6

Census Region
81-99% 100%

13 17

5.1 6.6

81-99% 100%

17 26

6.6 10.2
Heating: 

electric furnace 

or baseboard; 

Water heating: 

electric

Other 

combinations

2.0 1.7 100

8.2 0.0 100

0.0 0.0 100

0.0 0.0 100

1.9 2.8 100

1.3 1.2 100

0.0 0.0 100

2.7 1.9 100

0.4 2.6 100

7.1 0.0 100

0.0 0.0 100

0

0.0 0.0 100

0.0 0.0 100

0

0.0 0.0 100

0

0

0

w home installations would be in each of the 
0.0 0.0 100

0.0 0.0 100

0.6 3.1 100000

0.0 3.2 100

1.5 2.9 1000

2.5 5.0 1000

0.0 0.0 100

0.0 0.0 1000

0.0 0.0 100

0.0 0.0 100

0.0 0.0 100

0.0 0.0 1000

4.0 0.0 1000

0.0 0.1 1000

0.0 0.0 100000

8.3 5.0 1000

0.0 0.0 100

2.0 4.0 1000

0.0 0.0 1000

0.0 0.0 100

25.0 0.0 1000

16.0 0.0 1000

30.0 0.0 100000
Heating: 

electric furnace 

or baseboard; 

Water heating: 

electric

Other 

combinations

1.6 1.9 100

6.4 0.0 100

0.0 0.0 100

1.2 0.0 100

0.0 3.1 100

0.4 1.2 100

0.0 0.0 100

2.5 2.1 100

0.3 3.8 100

7.1 0.0 100

0.0 0.0 100

0

0.0 0.0 100

0.0 0.0 100

0

0.0 0.0 100

0

0

0

0.0 0.0 100

0.0 0.0 100

1.4 2.8 100

0

0

0

0.0 3.2 100

0.0 4.1 100

0

2.5 10.0 100

0

0.0 0.0 100

0.0 0.0 100

0

0.0 0.0 100

0.0 0.0 100

2.9 0.0 100

0.0 0.0 100

0

ew home installations would be in each of 
0.0 2.0 100

0

0.0 0.1 100

0

0.0 0.0 100

0

0

0

0.0 5.0 100

0

0.0 0.0 100

2.0 6.0 100

0

0.0 0.0 100

0

0.0 0.0 100

25.0 0.0 100

0

16.0 0.0 100

0

30.0 0.0 100

0

0

0

Heating: 

electric furnace 

or baseboard; 

Water heating: 

electric

Other 

combinations

-0.4 0.2

-1.8 0.0

0.0 0.0

1.2 0.0
-1.9 0.3

-0.9 0.0

0.0 0.0

-0.2 0.2

0.0 1.2

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

n/a n/a

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

n/a n/a

0.0 0.0

n/a n/a

n/a n/a

n/a n/a

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.9 -0.3

n/a n/a

n/a n/a

n/a n/a

0.0 0.0

-1.5 1.2

n/a n/a

0.0 5.0

n/a n/a

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

n/a n/a

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

2.9 0.0

0.0 0.0

n/a n/a

-4.0 2.0

n/a n/a

0.0 0.0

n/a n/a

0.0 0.0

n/a n/a

n/a n/a

n/a n/a

-8.3 0.0

n/a n/a

0.0 0.0

0.0 2.0
n/a n/a

0.0 0.0

n/a n/a

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

n/a n/a

0.0 0.0

n/a n/a

0.0 0.0

n/a n/a

n/a n/a

n/a n/a

East South 

Central

West South 

Central

Mountain 

South AK

27 7 1 0

9.6 14.3 0.0

49.4 46.4 100.0

5.4 0.0 0.0

3.1 3.6 0.0

7.4 7.1 0.0

6.5 3.6 0.0

15.6 17.9 0.0

0.4 7.1 0.0

2.6 0.0 0.0
East South 

Central

West South 

Central

Mountain 

South AK

29 7 1 0

51.6 64.3 100.0

10.5 0.0 0.0

0.3 3.6 0.0

18.8 7.1 0.0

14.7 17.9 0.0

0.3 7.1 0.0

3.8 0.0 0.0
East South 

Central

West South 

Central

Mountain 

South AK

14 49 25 0

38.2 39.1 59.6

23.9 28.4 19.2

3.9 4.4 4.6

0.7 3.1 1.2

4.6 2.8 0.4

8.6 5.1 1.4
14.6 7.2 8.8

3.6 3.3 0.2

1.8 6.6 4.6

East South 

Central

West South 

Central

Mountain 

South AK

13 45 25 0

42.3 61.3 66.0

16.5 8.9 14.6

0.8 2.1 2.0

11.9 8.5 1.0

21.9 10.4 7.4

3.5 1.7 0.6

3.1 7.1 8.4
Installation Contractors (32, 34, 37, 38)

0% 1-5%

Number 532 106

Percent 76.5 15.3

0% 1-5%

Number 481 131

Percent 69.6 19.0

Heating: minimum 

efficiency (noncondensing) furnace; 

Water heating: 

natural gas

Heating: high 

efficiency 

(condensing) 

furnace; Water 

heating: natural 

gas

Heating: electric 

heat pump; 

Water heating: 

natural gas

30.4 48.1 3.4

Heating: high 

efficiency 

(condensing) 

furnace; Water 

heating: natural 

gas

Heating: electric 

heat pump; 

Water heating: 

natural gas

71.8 8.1

Question 32

Type of Respondent: Installing ContractorState of 

Respondent: ALLCensus Region: ALLNumber of Gas 

Furnaces Installed: ALLInstalls in New Construcon: 

When you replace a minimum efficiency (non-condensing) furnace with 

Question 34

Type of Respondent: Installing ContractorState of 

Respondent: ALLCensus Region: ALLNumber of Gas 

Furnaces Installed: ALLInstalls in New Construcon: 

When your company replaces a minimum efficiency (non-condensing) f

Question 37

Type of Respondent: Installing ContractorState of 

Respondent: ALLCensus Region: ALLNumber of Gas 

Furnaces Installed: ALLInstalls in New Construcon: 

ALLPerforms Replacements in Exisng Homes: ALL

Respondents: 599

If natural gas is currently used for heating and water heating, and the F

of your replacements would be:

Question 38

Type of Respondent: Installing ContractorState of 

Respondent: ALLCensus Region: ALLNumber of Gas 

Furnaces Installed: ALLInstalls in New Construcon: 

ALLPerforms Replacements in Exisng Homes: ALL

Respondents: 589

If natural gas is currently used for heating and water heating, and the F

percentage of your replacements would be:

Change in responses if federal minimum efficiency requirement change
Type of Respondent: Installing Contractor

State of 

Respondent: ALLCensus Region: ALLNumber of Gas 

Furnaces Installed: ALLInstalls in New Construcon: 

ALLPerforms Replacements in Exisng Homes: ALL

Respondents: 589

Heating: minimum 

efficiency (noncondensing) furnace; 

Water heating: 

natural gas

Heating: high 

efficiency 

(condensing) 

furnace; Water 

heating: natural 

gas

Heating: electric 

heat pump; 

Water heating: 

natural gas

-30.4 23.6 4.7

Fuel Switching

Went from gas heat 

to electric heat

Went from gas 

water heating to 

electric water 

heating

13.9 2.6

Question 37

Type of Respondent: Installing ContractorState of 

Respondent: ALLCensus Region: ALLNumber of Gas 

Furnaces Installed: ALLInstalls in New Construcon: 

ALLPerforms Replacements in Exisng Homes: ALL

Respondents: 599

Location Respondents

Heating: 

minimum 

efficiency (noncondensing) 

furnace; Water 

heating: natural 

gas

ALL 599 30.4

Pacific 33 26.2

Mountain North 30 30.4

West North Central 80 21.6

East North Central 64 23.5

Middle Atlantic 180 26.3

New England 46 25.0

South Atlantic 108 39.4

East South Central 14 38.2

West South Central 49 39.1

Mountain South 25 59.6

AK 0

AL 3 53.3

AR 31 33.6

AZ 12 75.0

CA 6 41.3

CO 0

CT 2 55.0

DC 0

If natural gas is currently used for heating and water heating, and the F

Census Region
DE

0

FL0

GA 35 50.6

HI0

IA1 0.0

ID0

IL0

IN9 15.6

KS0

KY1 10.0

LA2 50.0

MA 17 15.7

MD 26 35.0

ME0

MI 12 10.6

MN 47 11.1

MO 10 56.9

MS1 20.0

MT0

NC7 30.0

ND0

NE 18 29.1

NH0

NJ 171 28.8

NM0

NV 19 44.6

NY1 0.0

OH 33 24.2

OK 13 39.6

OR 19 14.6

PA 25 13.0

RI1 40.0

SC1 10.0

SD0

TN2 40.0

TX4 63.8

UT 24 29.9

VA 42 40.2

VT0

WA3 32.3

WI1 0.0

WV0

WY0

State
Location Respondents

ALL 589

Pacific 33

Mountain North 30

West North Central 80

East North Central 62

Middle Atlantic 180

New England 44

South Atlantic 106

East South Central 13

West South Central 45

Mountain South 25

AK 0

AL 3

AR 30

AZ 12

CA 6

CO 0

CT 2

DC 0

DE 0

FL 0

GA 35

HI 0

IA 1

ID 0

IL 0

IN 8

KS 0

KY 1

LA 2

MA 17

MD 26

ME 0

MI 12

MN 47

MO 10

MS 1

MT 0

Question 38

Type of Respondent: Installing ContractorState of 

Respondent: ALLCensus Region: ALLNumber of Gas 

Furnaces Installed: ALLInstalls in New Construcon: 

ALLPerforms Replacements in Exisng Homes: ALL

Respondents: 589

If natural gas is currently used for heating and water heating, and the F

would be:

Census Region

State
NC 7

ND 0

NE 18

NH 0

NJ 170

NM 0

NV 19

NY 1

OH 33

OK 12

OR 18

PA 25

RI 1

SC 1

SD 0

TN 2

TX 3

UT 24

VA 38

VT 0

WA 3

WI 1

WV 0

WY 0

Location Respondents

Heating: 

minimum 

efficiency (noncondensing) 

furnace; Water 

heating: natural 

gas

ALL 589 -30.4

Pacific 33 -26.2

Mountain North 30 -30.4

West North Central 80

-21.6

Type of Respondent: Installing ContractorState of 

Respondent: ALLCensus Region: ALLNumber of Gas 

Furnaces Installed: ALLInstalls in New Construcon: 

ALLPerforms Replacements in Exisng Homes: ALL

Respondents: 589

Change in Percent of Installs if Minimum Standard Becomes Condensin
East North Central 62 -23.5

Middle Atlantic 180 -26.3

New England 44 -25.0

South Atlantic 106 -39.4

East South Central 13 -38.2

West South Central 45

-39.1

Mountain South 25 -59.6

AK

0 n/a

AL

3 -53.3

AR 30 -33.6

AZ 12 -75.0

CA

6 -41.3

CO

0 n/a

CT

2 -55.0

DC

0 n/a

DE

0 n/a

FL

0 n/a

GA 35 -50.6

HI

0 n/a

IA

1 0.0

ID

0 n/a

IL

0 n/a

IN

8 -15.6

KS

0 n/a

KY

1 -10.0

LA

2 -50.0

MA 17 -15.7

MD 26 -35.0

ME

0 n/a

MI 12 -10.6

MN 47 -11.1

MO 10 -56.9

MS

1 -20.0

MT

0 n/a

NC

7 -30.0

ND

0 n/a

NE 18 -29.1

NH

0 n/a

NJ 170 -28.8

NM

0 n/a

NV 19 -44.6

NY

1 0.0

OH 33 -24.2

OK 12 -39.6

OR 18 -14.6

PA 25 -13.0

Census Region

States
RI 1 -40.0

SC 1 -10.0

SD 0 n/a

TN 2 -40.0

TX 3 -63.8

UT 24 -29.9

VA 38 -40.2

VT 0 n/a

WA 3 -32.3

WI 1 0.0

WV 0 n/a

WY 0 n/a

Type of Respondent: Installing ContractorState of 

Respondent: ALLCensus Region: ALLNumber of Gas 

Furnaces Installed: ALLInstalls in New Construcon: 

ALLPerforms Replacements in Exisng Homes: ALL

Respondents: 589

Location Respondents Went from all gas 

to not all gas

ALL 589 6.8

Pacific 33 2.4

Mountain North 30 9.5

West North Central 80 8.0

East North Central 62 5.0

Middle Atlantic 180 4.0

New England 44 8.5

South Atlantic 106 9.5

East South Central 13 19.8

West South Central 45 6.2

Mountain South 25 12.8

AK 0 n/a

AL 3 41.7

AR 30 7.4

AZ 12 10.0

CA 6 -11.7

CO 0 n/a

CT 2 15.0

DC 0 n/a

DE 0 n/a

FL 0 n/a

GA 35 13.2

Fuel Switching Contractors
HI

0 n/a

IA1 0.0

ID0 n/a

IL0 n/a

IN8 2.8

KS0 n/a

KY1 0.0

LA2 5.0

MA 17 7.1

MD 26 11.4

ME0 n/a

MI 12 -0.5

MN 47 3.5

MO 10 28.9

MS1 5.0

MT0 n/a

NC7 7.1

ND0 n/a

NE 18 9.4

NH0 n/a

NJ 170 4.7

NM0 n/a

NV 19 11.5

NY1 0.0

OH 33 4.9

OK 12 8.1

OR 18 3.2

PA 25 2.2

RI1 50.0

SC1 -20.0

SD0 n/a

TN2 10.0

TX3 -10.0

UT 24 10.1

VA 38 9.0

VT0 n/a

WA3 20.0

WI1 0.0

WV0 n/a

WY0 n/a
AL AR AZ CA

11 4 0 1

17.7 0.0 0.0

30.5 50.0 100.0

12.3 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0

8.2 12.5 0.0

1.8 6.3 0.0

29.5 31.3 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0
AL AR AZ CA

13 4 0 1

41.2 56.3 100.0

16.2 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0

16.5 12.5 0.0

26.2 31.3 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0
AL AR AZ CA

3 31 12 6

53.3 33.6 75.0 41.3

5.0 29.4 7.5 14.2

6.7 5.5 2.5 3.0

3.3 1.1 0.0 3.7

8.3 3.0 0.0 0.8

5.0 6.9 0.0 0.8
10.0 9.5 15.0 1.2

3.3 3.9 0.0 1.7

5.0 7.1 0.0 33.3

AL AR AZ CA

3 30 12 6

16.7 55.6 72.5 67.2

31.7 8.6 15.0 9.2

3.3 2.0 3.3 3.3

5.0 11.2 0.0 1.7

30.0 12.6 9.2 1.2

3.3 2.6 0.0 0.8

10.0 7.4 0.0 16.7
6-10% 11-15% 16-20% 21-40% 41-60% 61-80%

17 10 11 7 6 3

2.4 1.4 1.6 1.0 0.9 0.4

6-10% 11-15% 16-20% 21-40% 41-60% 61-80%

35 11 19 4 5 3

5.1 1.6 2.7 0.6 0.7 0.4

Heating: 

electric furnace 

or baseboard; 

Water heating: 

natural gas

Heating: 

minimum 

efficiency (noncondensing) 

furnace; Water 

heating: electric

Heating: high 

efficiency 

(condensing) 

furnace; Water 

heating: 

electric

Heating: 

electric heat 

pump; Water 

heating: 

electric

Heating: 

electric furnace 

or baseboard; 

Water heating: 

electric

Other 

combinations

1.2 2.4 3.2 5.5 1.3 4.6

Heating: 

electric furnace 

or baseboard; 

Water heating: 

natural gas

Heating: high 

efficiency 

(condensing) 

furnace; Water 

heating: 

electric

Heating: 

electric heat 

pump; Water 

heating: 

electric

Heating: 

electric furnace 

or baseboard; 

Water heating: 

electric

Other 

combinations

1.8 5.1 6.8 1.5 5.0

ondensing) furnace with a high efficiency (condensing) furnace, how often do you replace the gas water heater with an electric water hea

ncy (non-condensing) furnace, how often do you replace the gas furnace with electric heating? 

water heating, and the Federal minimum requirement remains as it is today for gas furnaces. What percentage 

water heating, and the Federal minimum requirement has changed to high-efficiency gas furnaces. What 

ncy requirement changes to high efficiency (condensing) furnaces
Heating: 

electric furnace 

or baseboard; 

Water heating: 

natural gas

Heating: 

minimum 

efficiency (noncondensing) 

furnace; Water 

heating: electric

Heating: high 

efficiency 

(condensing) 

furnace; Water 

heating: 

electric

Heating: 

electric heat 

pump; Water 

heating: 

electric

Heating: 

electric furnace 

or baseboard; 

Water heating: 

electric

Other 

combinations

0.6 -2.4 2.0 1.3 0.2 0.4

Heating: high 

efficiency 

(condensing) 

furnace; Water 

heating: 

natural gas

Heating: electric 

heat pump; 

Water heating: 

natural gas

Heating: 

electric furnace 

or baseboard; 

Water heating: 

natural gas

Heating: 

minimum 

efficiency (noncondensing) 

furnace; Water 

heating: 

electric

Heating: high 

efficiency 

(condensing) 

furnace; Water 

heating: 

electric

Heating: 

electric heat 

pump; Water 

heating: 

electric

48.1 3.4 1.2 2.4 3.2 5.5

44.5 4.8 0.7 3.0 2.5 5.2

54.9 4.1 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.7

61.4 3.7 0.4 1.6 3.6 3.9

58.3 3.0 0.9 2.3 3.9 4.2

57.2 2.6 1.0 2.2 2.7 2.7

57.0 2.3 1.2 4.2 2.4 2.2

30.2 4.3 1.3 2.9 3.3 12.1

23.9 3.9 0.7 4.6 8.6 14.6

28.4 4.4 3.1 2.8 5.1 7.2

19.2 4.6 1.2 0.4 1.4 8.8

5.0 6.7 3.3 8.3 5.0 10.0

29.4 5.5 1.1 3.0 6.9 9.5

7.5 2.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 15.0

14.2 3.0 3.7 0.8 0.8 1.2

45.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

water heating, and the Federal minimum requirement remains as it is today for gas furnaces. What percentage of your replacements wou
29.6 5.4 0.7 2.4 1.8 8.3

50.0 25.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 25.0

77.1 0.3 0.0 0.1 2.4 3.6

10.0 10.0 0.0 10.0 30.0 30.0

10.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0

63.1 3.6 2.1 2.1 3.0 3.5

34.5 4.8 1.3 1.7 2.1 11.3

73.6 4.8 2.2 2.1 4.5 1.1

71.3 1.9 0.1 2.0 5.2 3.3

28.5 3.5 0.5 0.2 0.7 5.5

5.0 0.0 0.0 5.0 0.0 40.0

31.4 0.7 0.7 2.7 11.6 5.7

60.6 4.7 0.7 0.6 1.2 2.6

56.7 2.2 0.9 2.7 2.2 1.4

21.5 4.1 1.6 1.1 2.2 2.9

95.0 5.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

52.5 3.7 1.0 2.8 4.5 6.3

33.5 6.5 0.0 3.5 2.7 5.8

58.3 5.9 1.7 5.3 4.5 7.9

64.7 2.8 0.7 1.9 5.8 7.8

60.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

10.0 0.0 0.0 5.0 15.0 60.0

20.0 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 30.0

11.3 0.0 25.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

65.1 3.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4

23.6 3.4 2.1 3.9 3.6 15.1

67.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

25.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 10.0 5.0
Heating: high 

efficiency 

(condensing) 

furnace; Water 

heating: 

natural gas

Heating: electric 

heat pump; 

Water heating: 

natural gas

Heating: 

electric furnace 

or baseboard; 

Water heating: 

natural gas

Heating: high 

efficiency 

(condensing) 

furnace; Water 

heating: 

electric

Heating: 

electric heat 

pump; Water 

heating: 

electric

71.8 8.1 1.8 5.1 6.8

68.4 8.5 2.5 3.3 5.1

75.8 11.4 1.1 2.2 0.7

75.0 7.5 2.4 5.7 4.3

76.7 5.6 2.4 5.6 6.0

79.5 5.7 1.2 4.5 3.9

73.5 7.0 2.0 5.6 3.4

60.1 10.8 1.5 5.9 14.0

42.3 16.5 0.8 11.9 21.9

61.3 8.9 2.1 8.5 10.4

66.0 14.6 2.0 1.0 7.4

16.7 31.7 3.3 5.0 30.0

55.6 8.6 2.0 11.2 12.6

72.5 15.0 3.3 0.0 9.2

67.2 9.2 3.3 1.7 1.2

85.0 10.0 0.0 5.0 0.0

67.0 12.4 0.9 4.0 13.3

50.0 25.0 0.0 0.0 25.0

89.9 2.4 0.0 2.8 4.0

20.0 20.0 0.0 30.0 30.0

55.0 12.5 12.5 10.0 10.0

71.7 8.5 2.9 3.2 3.8

58.1 11.2 1.3 5.2 13.3

84.7 3.9 1.7 3.3 3.0

78.9 5.1 0.6 7.7 2.5

56.5 13.5 7.4 2.0 7.0

20.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 50.0

water heating, and the Federal minimum requirement has changed to high-efficiency gas furnaces. What percentage of your replacement
54.3 6.4 0.7 11.4 10.7

80.3 6.9 4.4 2.3 5.2

80.8 5.2 1.6 4.4 2.7

54.6 9.7 0.6 1.8 5.0

95.0 5.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

71.8 6.3 1.2 8.6 8.6

65.0 13.3 1.7 5.0 6.7

69.7 8.7 3.3 5.5 7.5

75.6 5.7 0.8 5.6 9.2

50.0 50.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

40.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 60.0

50.0 30.0 0.0 0.0 20.0

85.0 8.3 0.0 0.0 6.7

84.9 11.1 0.6 0.5 0.5

54.8 10.8 2.8 8.3 14.8

80.0 13.3 6.7 0.0 0.0

25.0 1.0 0.0 10.0 1.0

Heating: high 

efficiency 

(condensing) 

furnace; Water 

heating: 

natural gas

Heating: electric 

heat pump; 

Water heating: 

natural gas

Heating: 

electric furnace 

or baseboard; 

Water heating: 

natural gas

Heating: 

minimum 

efficiency (noncondensing) 

furnace; Water 

heating: 

electric

Heating: high 

efficiency 

(condensing) 

furnace; Water 

heating: 

electric

Heating: 

electric heat 

pump; Water 

heating: 

electric

23.6 4.7 0.6 -2.4 2.0 1.3

23.8 3.8 1.8 -3.0 0.8 -0.2

20.9 7.3 0.2 -1.0 1.2 0.1

13.6 3.9 2.0 -1.6 2.1 0.5

ard Becomes Condensing
18.4 2.6 1.5 -2.3 1.8 1.8

22.3 3.2 0.3 -2.2 1.8 1.2

16.5 4.7 0.8 -4.2 3.1 1.2

29.8 6.5 0.2 -2.9 2.6 2.0

18.4 12.6 0.1 -4.6 3.4 7.3

32.9 4.5 -1.0 -2.8 3.3 3.1

46.8 10.0 0.8 -0.4 -0.4 -1.4

n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a

11.7 25.0 0.0 -8.3 0.0 20.0

26.3 3.0 0.9 -3.0 4.3 3.2

65.0 12.5 3.3 0.0 0.0 -5.8

53.0 6.2 -0.3 -0.8 0.8 0.0

n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a

40.0 10.0 0.0 0.0 5.0 0.0

n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a

n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a

n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a

37.5 7.1 0.1 -2.4 2.2 5.0

n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a

n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a

12.8 2.0 0.0 -0.1 0.3 0.4

n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a

10.0 10.0 0.0 -10.0 0.0 0.0

45.0 7.5 7.5 -5.0 5.0 5.0

8.6 4.9 0.9 -2.1 0.2 0.3

23.5 6.3 0.0 -1.7 3.1 2.0

n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a

11.1 -0.8 -0.5 -2.1 -1.3 1.9

7.6 3.2 0.4 -2.0 2.5 -0.7

28.0 10.0 6.9 -0.2 1.3 1.5

15.0 0.0 0.0 -5.0 0.0 10.0

n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a

22.9 5.7 0.0 -2.7 -0.1 5.0

n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a

19.7 2.2 3.8 -0.6 1.1 2.7

n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a

24.1 3.0 0.7 -2.7 2.2 1.3

n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a

33.1 5.7 -0.9 -1.1 -0.3 2.1

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

19.3 2.6 0.2 -2.8 4.1 2.3

31.5 6.8 1.7 -3.5 2.3 0.9

11.5 2.8 1.6 -5.3 1.0 -0.4

10.8 2.9 0.1 -1.9 -0.2 1.4
-10.0 50.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

30.0 0.0 0.0 -5.0 -15.0 0.0

n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a

30.0 20.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -10.0

73.8 8.3 -25.0 0.0 0.0 6.7

19.8 7.7 0.3 -0.4 0.1 0.1

31.1 7.4 0.7 -3.9 4.6 -0.3

n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a

12.3 13.3 6.7 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -4.0

n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a

n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a

Went from gas 

heat to electric 

heat

Went from gas 

water heating to 

electric water 

heating

Location

Percent of 

Homes 

Affected

Went from all 

gas to not all 

gas

7.0 1.3 ALL 32.7 20.7

5.1 -2.6 Pacific 29.3 8.3

8.4 1.0 Mountain North 31.4 30.4

7.7 2.3 West North Central 23.3 34.6

5.9 1.3 East North Central 25.7 19.5

4.4 0.6 Middle Atlantic 28.5 14.0

8.8 2.1 New England 29.2 29.2

9.5 2.4 South Atlantic 42.3 22.6

20.5 6.5 East South Central 42.9 46.3

5.4 2.4 West South Central 41.9 14.8

11.7 0.1 Mountain South 60.0 21.3

n/a n/a AK n/a n/a

47.5 14.2 AL 61.7 67.6

6.0 3.3 AR 36.7 20.1

10.0 -5.8 AZ 75.0 13.3

-3.3 -9.2 CA 42.2 -27.7

n/a n/a CO n/a n/a

10.0 5.0 CT 55.0 27.3

n/a n/a DC n/a n/a

n/a n/a DE n/a n/a

n/a n/a FL n/a n/a

13.3 6.0 GA 53.0 24.9

 Contractors Fuel Switching Contractors (Percent of Affected Homes)
n/a n/a HI n/a n/a

0.0 0.0 IA 0.0 n/a

n/a n/a ID n/a n/a

n/a n/a IL n/a n/a

2.5 0.7 IN 15.7 17.8

n/a n/a KS n/a n/a

10.0 -10.0 KY 20.0 0.0

5.0 -10.0 LA 55.0 9.1

7.7 0.0 MA 17.8 39.9

9.5 4.5 MD 36.7 31.1

n/a n/a ME n/a n/a

2.1 0.1 MI 12.7 -3.9

2.8 -0.2 MN 13.1 26.8

28.9 13.1 MO 57.1 50.6

10.0 5.0 MS 25.0 20.0

n/a n/a MT n/a n/a

9.6 1.1 NC 32.7 21.8

n/a n/a ND n/a n/a

9.1 3.5 NE 29.7 31.6

n/a n/a NH n/a n/a

5.3 1.1 NJ 31.5 15.1

n/a n/a NM n/a n/a

10.1 4.0 NV 45.7 25.2

0.0 0.0 NY 0.0 n/a

4.6 3.0 OH 27.0 18.1

8.9 -0.7 OK 43.1 18.8

6.0 -2.7 OR 19.9 15.9

3.7 -1.4 PA 14.9 14.5

50.0 0.0 RI 40.0 125.0

0.0 -20.0 SC 15.0 -133.3

n/a n/a SD n/a n/a

10.0 -10.0 TN 40.0 25.0

-10.0 6.7 TX 63.8 -15.7

9.2 0.9 UT 30.3 33.2

7.6 0.3 VA 44.0 20.5

n/a n/a VT n/a n/a

20.0 0.0 WA 32.3 61.9

-2.0 -2.0 WI 0.0 n/a

n/a n/a WV n/a n/a

n/a n/a WY n/a n/a
CO CT DC DE FL GA

0 0 0 1 2 36

0.0 75.0 14.3

100.0 25.0 48.2

0.0 0.0 6.3

0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 8.8

0.0 0.0 12.3

0.0 0.0 6.6

0.0 0.0 0.6

0.0 0.0 3.1
CO CT DC DE FL GA

0 0 0 1 2 36

100.0 100.0 56.9

0.0 0.0 10.6

0.0 0.0 0.3

0.0 0.0 22.1

0.0 0.0 5.9

0.0 0.0 1.4

0.0 0.0 2.8
CO CT DC DE FL GA

0 2 0 0 0 35

55.0 50.6

45.0 29.6

0.0 5.4

0.0 0.7

0.0 2.4

0.0 1.8
0.0 8.3

0.0 0.3

0.0 0.9

CO CT DC DE FL GA

0 2 0 0 0 35

85.0 67.0

10.0 12.4

0.0 0.9

5.0 4.0

0.0 13.3

0.0 1.4

0.0 1.0
81-99% 100%

3 0

0.4 0.0

81-99% 100%

0 2

0.0 0.3

ater heater with an electric water heater?
Heating: 

electric furnace 

or baseboard; 

Water heating: 

electric

Other 

combinations

1.3 4.6 100

0.7 12.3 100

0.4 6.7 100

0.7 3.0 100

1.3 2.7 100

1.1 4.3 100

1.1 4.5 100

1.6 4.8 100

3.6 1.8 100

3.3 6.6 100

0.2 4.6 100

0

3.3 5.0 100

3.9 7.1 100

0.0 0.0 100

1.7 33.3 100

0

0.0 0.0 100

0

ercentage of your replacements would be:
00

0.3 0.9 1000

0.0 0.0 10000

0.0 0.9 1000

0.0 0.0 100

15.0 0.0 100

1.5 5.4 100

0.8 8.5 1000

0.5 0.8 100

0.6 4.6 100

2.0 2.2 100

30.0 0.0 1000

1.4 15.7 1000

0.3 0.3 1000

0.7 4.4 1000

0.3 21.8 100

0.0 0.0 100

2.4 2.5 100

0.8 7.7 100

1.4 0.4 100

2.2 1.0 100

0.0 0.0 100

0.0 0.0 1000

0.0 0.0 100

0.0 0.0 100

0.1 0.0 100

3.8 4.3 1000

0.0 0.0 100

0.0 59.0 10000
Heating: 

electric furnace 

or baseboard; 

Water heating: 

electric

Other 

combinations

1.5 5.0 100

1.0 11.2 100

0.2 8.6 100

2.2 2.8 100

1.8 1.8 100

1.0 4.3 100

2.3 6.2 100

2.0 5.6 100

3.5 3.1 100

1.7 7.1 100

0.6 8.4 100

0

3.3 10.0 100

2.6 7.4 100

0.0 0.0 100

0.8 16.7 100

0

0.0 0.0 100

0

0

0

1.4 1.0 100

0

0.0 0.0 100

0

0

0.0 1.0 100

0

0.0 0.0 100

0.0 0.0 100

1.8 8.0 100

1.3 9.6 100

0

1.3 2.2 100

0.4 4.8 100

13.5 0.1 100

30.0 0.0 100

0

What percentage of your replacements 
0.0 16.4 100

0

0.8 0.0 100

0

1.1 4.3 100

0

0.8 27.4 100

0.0 0.0 100

2.8 0.6 100

0.0 8.3 100

1.9 3.3 100

1.1 2.1 100

0.0 0.0 100

0.0 0.0 100

0

0.0 0.0 100

0.0 0.0 100

0.0 2.5 100

2.9 5.7 100

0

0.0 0.0 100

0.0 63.0 100

0

0

Heating: 

electric furnace 

or baseboard; 

Water heating: 

electric

Other 

combinations

0.2 0.4

0.3 -1.1

-0.3 2.0

1.4 -0.2
0.4 -0.8

-0.1 0.0

1.1 1.7

0.4 0.8

-0.1 1.3

-1.6 0.5

0.4 3.8

n/a n/a

0.0 5.0

-1.3 0.2

0.0 0.0

-0.8 -16.7

n/a n/a

0.0 0.0

n/a n/a

n/a n/a

n/a n/a

1.1 0.1

n/a n/a

0.0 0.0

n/a n/a

n/a n/a

0.0 0.1

n/a n/a

0.0 0.0

-15.0 0.0

0.2 2.6

0.6 1.2

n/a n/a

0.8 1.4

-0.1 0.2

11.5 -2.1

0.0 0.0

n/a n/a

-1.4 0.7

n/a n/a

0.6 -0.3

n/a n/a

0.4 -0.1

n/a n/a

0.5 5.5

0.0 0.0

0.4 -1.9

-0.8 0.6

0.5 3.0

-1.2 1.1
0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

n/a n/a

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

-0.1 2.5

-0.9 1.4

n/a n/a

0.0 0.0

0.0 4.0

n/a n/a

n/a n/a

Went from gas 

heat to electric 

heat

Went from gas 

water heating 

to electric 

water heating

21.3 3.9

17.5 -8.7

26.6 3.1

32.9 9.8

23.0 5.1

15.6 2.1

30.0 7.2

22.4 5.7

47.8 15.2

12.8 5.7

19.5 0.1

n/a n/a

77.0 23.0

16.3 9.0

13.3 -7.8

-7.9 -21.7

n/a n/a

18.2 9.1

n/a n/a

n/a n/a

n/a n/a

25.1 11.3

ors (Percent of Affected Homes)
n/a n/a

n/a n/a

n/a n/a

n/a n/a

16.2 4.4

n/a n/a

50.0 -50.0

9.1 -18.2

43.1 -0.2

25.9 12.3

n/a n/a

16.8 1.0

21.5 -1.5

50.5 22.9

40.0 20.0

n/a n/a

29.5 3.3

n/a n/a

30.6 11.9

n/a n/a

16.8 3.5

n/a n/a

22.2 8.8

n/a n/a

16.9 11.1

20.7 -1.6

30.1 -13.7

25.1 -9.3

125.0 0.0

0.0 -133.3

n/a n/a

25.0 -25.0

-15.7 10.5

30.3 2.8

17.2 0.6

n/a n/a

61.9 0.0

n/a n/a

n/a n/a

n/a n/a
HI IA ID IL IN KS KY LA MA

0 0 0 25 17 0 4 0 2

20.6 4.4 8.8 0.0

73.8 68.5 27.5 100.0

0.0 0.0 2.5 0.0

0.0 0.0 21.3 0.0

0.0 0.0 2.5 0.0

0.8 15.6 15.0 0.0

1.6 7.1 15.0 0.0

0.0 1.5 2.5 0.0

3.2 2.9 5.0 0.0

States
HI IA ID IL IN KS KY LA MA

0 0 0 25 17 0 4 0 2

96.0 66.8 33.8 100.0

0.0 4.7 21.3 0.0

0.0 0.0 2.5 0.0

0.0 17.4 15.0 0.0

0.8 7.1 15.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 2.5 0.0

3.2 4.1 10.0 0.0
HI IA ID IL IN KS KY LA MA

0 1 0 0 9 0 1 2 17

0.0 15.6 10.0 50.0 15.7

50.0 77.1 10.0 10.0 63.1

25.0 0.3 10.0 5.0 3.6

0.0 0.0 0.0 5.0 2.1

0.0 0.1 10.0 5.0 2.1

0.0 2.4 30.0 5.0 3.0
25.0 3.6 30.0 5.0 3.5

0.0 0.0 0.0 15.0 1.5

0.0 0.9 0.0 0.0 5.4

HI IA ID IL IN KS KY LA MA

0 1 0 0 8 0 1 2 17

50.0 89.9 20.0 55.0 71.7

25.0 2.4 20.0 12.5 8.5

0.0 0.0 0.0 12.5 2.9

0.0 2.8 30.0 10.0 3.2

25.0 4.0 30.0 10.0 3.8

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.8

0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 8.0








MD ME MI MN MO MS MT NC ND

1 0 7 10 14 2 0 5 0

0.0 14.3 0.5 37.5 10.0 22.0

70.0 61.4 65.3 31.4 90.0 27.0

0.0 8.6 1.0 11.4 0.0 3.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

5.0 0.0 16.8 2.9 0.0 2.0

0.0 15.0 14.4 16.4 0.0 22.0

25.0 0.7 2.0 0.4 0.0 20.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

States
MD ME MI MN MO MS MT NC ND

1 0 7 10 14 2 0 5 0

95.0 77.1 64.7 50.0 95.0 44.0

0.0 7.9 1.0 10.7 5.0 26.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 15.0 32.3 33.6 0.0 12.0

5.0 0.0 2.0 2.9 0.0 16.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 2.9 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0

States
MD ME MI MN MO MS MT NC ND

26 0 12 47 10 1 0 7 0

35.0 10.6 11.1 56.9 20.0 30.0

34.5 73.6 71.3 28.5 5.0 31.4

4.8 4.8 1.9 3.5 0.0 0.7

1.3 2.2 0.1 0.5 0.0 0.7

1.7 2.1 2.0 0.2 5.0 2.7

2.1 4.5 5.2 0.7 0.0 11.6

State
11.3 1.1 3.3 5.5 40.0 5.7

0.8 0.5 0.6 2.0 30.0 1.4

8.5 0.8 4.6 2.2 0.0 15.7

MD ME MI MN MO MS MT NC ND

26 0 12 47 10 1 0 7 0

58.1 84.7 78.9 56.5 20.0 54.3

11.2 3.9 5.1 13.5 0.0 6.4

1.3 1.7 0.6 7.4 0.0 0.7

5.2 3.3 7.7 2.0 0.0 11.4

13.3 3.0 2.5 7.0 50.0 10.7

1.3 1.3 0.4 13.5 30.0 0.0

9.6 2.2 4.8 0.1 0.0 16.4

State








NE NH NJ NM NV NY OH OK OR

11 0 12 0 0 0 12 0 8

10.9 35.0 17.3 7.5

75.0 55.8 63.8 91.3

1.4 0.0 0.8 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

10.7 9.2 4.6 0.0

1.9 0.0 0.2 1.3

0.0 0.0 8.3 0.0

0.1 0.0 5.0 0.0
NE NH NJ NM NV NY OH OK OR

11 0 11 0 0 0 12 0 8

83.3 84.1 81.1 73.8

1.4 6.8 0.8 15.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

13.4 0.0 4.6 0.0

1.9 9.1 8.5 11.3

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.1 0.0 5.0 0.0
NE NH NJ NM NV NY OH OK OR

18 0 171 0 19 1 33 13 19

29.1 28.8 44.6 0.0 24.2 39.6 14.6

60.6 56.7 21.5 95.0 52.5 33.5 58.3

4.7 2.2 4.1 5.0 3.7 6.5 5.9

0.7 0.9 1.6 0.0 1.0 0.0 1.7

0.6 2.7 1.1 0.0 2.8 3.5 5.3

1.2 2.2 2.2 0.0 4.5 2.7 4.5
2.6 1.4 2.9 0.0 6.3 5.8 7.9

0.3 0.7 0.3 0.0 2.4 0.8 1.4

0.3 4.4 21.8 0.0 2.5 7.7 0.4

NE NH NJ NM NV NY OH OK OR

18 0 170 0 19 1 33 12 18

80.3 80.8 54.6 95.0 71.8 65.0 69.7

6.9 5.2 9.7 5.0 6.3 13.3 8.7

4.4 1.6 0.6 0.0 1.2 1.7 3.3

2.3 4.4 1.8 0.0 8.6 5.0 5.5

5.2 2.7 5.0 0.0 8.6 6.7 7.5

0.8 1.1 0.8 0.0 2.8 0.0 1.9

0.0 4.3 27.4 0.0 0.6 8.3 3.3








PA RI SC SD TN TX UT VA VT

5 0 1 0 4 2 0 5 0

33.0 100.0 2.5 50.0 20.0

51.0 0.0 68.8 12.5 57.0

2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2.0 0.0 0.0 12.5 0.0

2.0 0.0 25.0 0.0 0.0

2.0 0.0 1.3 0.0 6.0

2.0 0.0 2.5 0.0 1.0

2.0 0.0 0.0 25.0 16.0

4.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
PA RI SC SD TN TX UT VA VT

5 0 1 0 4 2 0 5 0

80.0 100.0 50.0 62.5 57.0

2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 20.0

2.0 0.0 0.0 12.5 0.0

2.0 0.0 50.0 0.0 6.0

6.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0

2.0 0.0 0.0 25.0 16.0

6.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
PA RI SC SD TN TX UT VA VT

25 1 1 0 2 4 24 42 0

13.0 40.0 10.0 40.0 63.8 29.9 40.2

64.7 60.0 10.0 20.0 11.3 65.1 23.6

2.8 0.0 0.0 10.0 0.0 3.4 3.4

0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 25.0 0.3 2.1

1.9 0.0 5.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 3.9

5.8 0.0 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 3.6
7.8 0.0 60.0 30.0 0.0 0.4 15.1

2.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 3.8

1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.3

PA RI SC SD TN TX UT VA VT

25 1 1 0 2 3 24 38 0

75.6 50.0 40.0 50.0 85.0 84.9 54.8

5.7 50.0 0.0 30.0 8.3 11.1 10.8

0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 2.8

5.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 8.3

9.2 0.0 60.0 20.0 6.7 0.5 14.8

1.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.9

2.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.5 5.7








WA WI WV WY

3 0 0 0

0.0

66.7

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

3.3

30.0

0.0
WA WI WV WY

3 0 0 0

66.7

0.0

0.0

0.0

3.3

30.0

0.0
WA WI WV WY

3 1 0 0

32.3 0.0

67.7 25.0

0.0 1.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 10.0
0.0 5.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 59.0

WA WI WV WY

3 1 0 0

80.0 25.0

13.3 1.0

6.7 0.0

0.0 10.0

0.0 1.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 63.0
ALL 1

Pacific 2

Mountain North 3

West North Central 4

East North Central 5

Middle Atlantic 6

New England 7

South Atlantic 8

East South Central 9

West South Central 10

Mountain South 11
Mandatory Furnace Rule Change and Potential Unintended Consequences

Impact of Fuel Switching on Residential Heating 

Installation Contractors

Region Pacific

Number of Homes 334,231

Base Case

Natural Gas Furnace Natural Gas 

Furnace

Change w/o 

Fuel Switching

Fraction of 

Impacted Homes 

Switching to 

Electric Heater 

Fraction of 

Impacted Homes 

Switching to 

Electric Heat 

Pump

Fraction of 

Impacted 

Homes with 

Natural Gas 

Furnace

Fraction of 

Impacted 

Homes 

Switching 

from Gas 

Water Heater

Fraction of 

Impacted 

Homes 

Switching to 

Electric 

Water Heater

Total Gas 

Consumption 

with Fuel 

Switching 

(Dth)

Change in 

Electric 

Consumption 

Compared to 

Base Case 

(MWh)

Change in Gas 

Consumption Compared to 

Base Case (Dth) Using 

Survey Results

Efficiency: AFUE/HSPF/EF 80% 90% 100% 8.1 90% 0.62 0.95

Annual consumption (input) of natural gas in 

Dekatherm (Dth) and electricity in kWh

1

 34.9 31.0 -3.9 8,106 3,276 31.0 18.5 3,537

% of homes impacted 29.3% 100.0% 6.8% 11.9% 81.3% 6.9% -6.9%

Number of homes impacted 97,838 97,838 97,838 6,646 11,631 79,561 6,786 -6,786

Total annual consumption. Natural gas in Dth & 

electrcity in MWH. 3,414,562 3,032,992 -381,570 53,875 38,104 2,466,389 125,539 -24,002 2,591,928 67,977 -822,634

Customer Operating Cost Impact Gas Cost ($/Yr) Electricity Cost 

($/Yr) 

 Change in Energy Cost 

Compared to Base Case 

Using Survey Results ($/Yr) 

Natural gas price in $/Dth and electricity in 

$/kWh

$13.00 $13.00 $13.00 $0.2018 $0.2018 $13.00 $13.00 $0.2018

Annual heating operating cost to residential 

customers $44,389,301 $39,428,892 -$4,960,409 $10,869,890 $7,687,772 $32,063,055 $1,632,008 -$4,842,576 $33,695,063 $13,715,086 $3,020,848

Full Fuel Cycle Source Energy Impact Gas Source 

Energy (Dth/Yr) 

 Electricity 

Source Energy 

(Dth/Yr) 

 Change in Source Energy 

Compared to Base Case 

w/Fuel Switching (Dth/Yr) 

Source Energy Factor 1.09 1.09 1.09 2.74 2.74 1.09 1.09 2.74

Total Source Energy Consumption (Dth) 3,721,872 3,305,961 -415,911 503,823 356,331 2,688,364 136,838 -224,455 2,825,201 635,699 -260,972

CO2e Emissions Impact

 Gas CO2e 

emissions 

(Tons/Yr) 

 Electricity 

CO2e 

Emissions 

(Tons/Yr) 

 Change in CO2e Emissions 

Compared to Base Case 

Using Survey Results 

(Tons/Yr) 

CO2e Emissions: lbs/mmBtu for natural gas and

lbs/MWH for electricity 147.0 147.0 147.0 1,182 1,182 147.0 147.0 1,182.0 

Total CO2e Emissions in Ton/yr. 228,155 202,659 -25,496 28,946 20,472 164,800 8,388 -12,895 173,188 36,522 -18,445

CO2 Externalities Impact

 Gas CO2 

Externalities 

Cost ($/Yr) 

 Electricity CO2 

Externalities 

Cost ($/Yr) 

 Change in CO2 

Externalities Compared to 

Base Case Using Survey 

Results ($/Yr) 

CO2 Externalities Value ($/Tonne) $37.00 $37.00 $37.00 $37.00 $37.00 $37.00 $37.00 $37.00

Total Annual CO2 externalities Impact ($/Yr) $8,441,728 $7,498,383 -$943,345 $1,070,995 $757,465 $6,097,586 $310,367 -$477,132 $6,407,953 $1,351,328 -$682,447

Units:

1 Dekatherm = 10 Therm

1 Dekatherm = 1 million Btu or 1 mmBtu

1 Tonne = 2,200 lbs (Metric Ton)

Assumptions:

Furnace Installations from AHRI national data and RECS 2009 Survey Information

Installations impacted and fuel switching behavior from AGA/APGA Fuel Switching Survey spreadsheet

Energy Consumption, source energy conversion factors, and emission conversion factors from GTI Source Energy and Emissions Analysis Tool (www.cmictools.com)

Natural gas prices from AGA Marginal Billing Survey

Electricity prices from DOE 2011 Technical Support Document for Heat Pumps and Air Conditioners escalated to 2013 prices 

CO2 externalities impact based on assumed trading price of $10/ton)

Site Energy Consumption Impact - Residential 

Heating and Water Heating

High Efficiency Impact High Efficiency Impacts with Fuel Switching 
Mandatory Furnace Rule Change and Potential Unintended Consequences

Impact of Fuel Switching on Residential Heating 

Installation Contractors

Region Mountain North

Number of Homes 131,667

Base Case

Natural Gas Furnace Natural Gas 

Furnace

Change w/o 

Fuel Switching

Fraction of 

Impacted Homes 

Switching to 

Electric Heater 

Fraction of 

Impacted Homes 

Switching to 

Electric Heat 

Pump

Fraction of 

Impacted 

Homes with 

Natural Gas 

Furnace

Fraction of 

Impacted 

Homes 

Switching 

from Gas 

Water Heater

Fraction of 

Impacted 

Homes 

Switching to 

Electric 

Water Heater

Total Gas 

Consumption 

with Fuel 

Switching 

(Dth)

Change in 

Electric 

Consumption 

Compared to 

Base Case 

(MWh)

Change in Gas 

Consumption Compared to 

Base Case (Dth) Using 

Survey Results

Efficiency: AFUE/HSPF/EF 80% 90% 100% 8.1 90% 0.62 0.95

Annual consumption (input) of natural gas in 

Dekatherm (Dth) and electricity in kWh

1

 63.4 56.4 -7.0 14,720 6,503 56.4 20.7 3,950

% of homes impacted 31.4% 100.0% -0.1% 25.1% 75.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Number of homes impacted 41,343 41,343 41,343 -47 10,394 30,996 0 0

Total annual consumption. Natural gas in Dth & 

electrcity in MWH. 2,621,167 2,331,764 -289,403 -689 67,595 1,748,162 0 0 1,748,162 66,905 -873,004

Customer Operating Cost Impact Gas Cost ($/Yr) Electricity Cost 

($/Yr) 

 Change in Energy Cost 

Compared to Base Case 

Using Survey Results ($/Yr) 

Natural gas price in $/Dth and electricity in 

$/kWh

$7.85 $7.85 $7.85 $0.1027 $0.1027 $7.85 $7.85 $0.1027

Annual heating operating cost to residential 

customers $20,576,160 $18,304,344 -$2,271,816 -$70,772 $6,940,938 $13,723,075 $0 $0 $13,723,075 $6,870,166 $17,082

Full Fuel Cycle Source Energy Impact Gas Source 

Energy (Dth/Yr) 

 Electricity 

Source Energy 

(Dth/Yr) 

 Change in Source Energy 

Compared to Base Case 

w/Fuel Switching (Dth/Yr) 

Source Energy Factor 1.09 1.09 1.09 2.98 2.98 1.09 1.09 2.98

Total Source Energy Consumption (Dth) 2,857,072 2,541,622 -315,450 -7,010 687,486 1,905,497 0 0 1,905,497 680,476 -271,098

CO2e Emissions Impact

 Gas CO2e 

emissions 

(Tons/Yr) 

 Electricity 

CO2e 

Emissions 

(Tons/Yr) 

 Change in CO2e Emissions 

Compared to Base Case 

Using Survey Results 

(Tons/Yr) 

CO2e Emissions: lbs/mmBtu for natural gas and

lbs/MWH for electricity 147.0 147.0 147.0 1,636 1,636 147.0 147.0 1,636.0 

Total CO2e Emissions in Ton/yr. 175,142 155,804 -19,337 -513 50,266 116,809 0 0 116,809 49,753 -8,579

CO2 Externalities Impact

 Gas CO2 

Externalities 

Cost ($/Yr) 

 Electricity CO2 

Externalities 

Cost ($/Yr) 

 Change in CO2 

Externalities Compared to 

Base Case Using Survey 

Results ($/Yr) 

CO2 Externalities Value ($/Tonne) $37.00 $37.00 $37.00 $37.00 $37.00 $37.00 $37.00 $37.00

Total Annual CO2 externalities Impact ($/Yr) $6,480,239 $5,764,755 -$715,484 -$18,963 $1,859,832 $4,321,934 $0 $0 $4,321,934 $1,840,869 -$317,436

Units:

1 Dekatherm = 10 Therm

1 Dekatherm = 1 million Btu or 1 mmBtu

1 Tonne = 2,200 lbs (Metric Ton)

Assumptions:

Furnace Installations from AHRI national data and RECS 2009 Survey Information

Installations impacted and fuel switching behavior from AGA/APGA Fuel Switching Survey spreadsheet

Energy Consumption, source energy conversion factors, and emission conversion factors from GTI Source Energy and Emissions Analysis Tool (www.cmictools.com)

Natural gas prices from AGA Marginal Billing Survey

Electricity prices from DOE 2011 Technical Support Document for Heat Pumps and Air Conditioners escalated to 2013 prices 

CO2 externalities impact based on assumed trading price of $10/ton)

Site Energy Consumption Impact - Residential 

Heating and Water Heating

High Efficiency Impact High Efficiency Impacts with Fuel Switching 
Mandatory Furnace Rule Change and Potential Unintended Consequences

Impact of Fuel Switching on Residential Heating 

Installation Contractors

Region West North Central

Number of Homes 212,692

Base Case

Natural Gas Furnace Natural Gas 

Furnace

Change w/o 

Fuel Switching

Fraction of 

Impacted Homes 

Switching to 

Electric Heater 

Fraction of 

Impacted Homes 

Switching to 

Electric Heat 

Pump

Fraction of 

Impacted 

Homes with 

Natural Gas 

Furnace

Fraction of 

Impacted 

Homes 

Switching 

from Gas 

Water Heater

Fraction of 

Impacted 

Homes 

Switching to 

Electric 

Water Heater

Total Gas 

Consumption 

with Fuel 

Switching 

(Dth)

Change in 

Electric 

Consumption 

Compared to 

Base Case 

(MWh)

Change in Gas 

Consumption Compared to 

Base Case (Dth) Using 

Survey Results

Efficiency: AFUE/HSPF/EF 80% 90% 100% 8.1 90% 0.62 0.95

Annual consumption (input) of natural gas in 

Dekatherm (Dth) and electricity in kWh

1

 98.7 87.7 -11.0 23,019 12,796 87.7 21.7 4,156

% of homes impacted 23.3% 100.0% 14.7% 18.3% 67.0% -10.2% 10.2%

Number of homes impacted 49,478 49,478 49,478 7,279 9,073 33,126 -5,025 5,025

Total annual consumption. Natural gas in Dth & 

electrcity in MWH. 4,883,433 4,339,180 -544,253 167,560 116,094 2,905,123 -109,039 20,883 2,796,083 304,537 -2,087,350

Customer Operating Cost Impact Gas Cost ($/Yr) Electricity Cost 

($/Yr) 

 Change in Energy Cost 

Compared to Base Case 

Using Survey Results ($/Yr) 

Natural gas price in $/Dth and electricity in 

$/kWh

$6.80 $6.80 $6.80 $0.1165 $0.1165 $6.80 $6.80 $0.1165

Annual heating operating cost to residential 

customers $33,207,345 $29,506,425 -$3,700,920 $19,513,706 $13,520,006 $19,754,835 -$741,468 $2,432,025 $19,013,367 $35,465,738 $21,271,760

Full Fuel Cycle Source Energy Impact Gas Source 

Energy (Dth/Yr) 

 Electricity 

Source Energy 

(Dth/Yr) 

 Change in Source Energy 

Compared to Base Case 

w/Fuel Switching (Dth/Yr) 

Source Energy Factor 1.09 1.09 1.09 3.59 3.59 1.09 1.09 3.59

Total Source Energy Consumption (Dth) 5,322,942 4,729,706 -593,236 2,053,059 1,422,455 3,166,584 -118,853 255,876 3,047,731 3,731,391 1,456,180

CO2e Emissions Impact

 Gas CO2e 

emissions 

(Tons/Yr) 

 Electricity 

CO2e 

Emissions 

(Tons/Yr) 

 Change in CO2e Emissions 

Compared to Base Case 

Using Survey Results 

(Tons/Yr) 

CO2e Emissions: lbs/mmBtu for natural gas and

lbs/MWH for electricity 147.0 147.0 147.0 2,301 2,301 147.0 147.0 2,301.0 

Total CO2e Emissions in Ton/yr. 326,302 289,936 -36,366 175,253 121,423 194,115 -7,286 21,842 186,829 318,518 179,045

CO2 Externalities Impact

 Gas CO2 

Externalities 

Cost ($/Yr) 

 Electricity CO2 

Externalities 

Cost ($/Yr) 

 Change in CO2 

Externalities Compared to 

Base Case Using Survey 

Results ($/Yr) 

CO2 Externalities Value ($/Tonne) $37.00 $37.00 $37.00 $37.00 $37.00 $37.00 $37.00 $37.00

Total Annual CO2 externalities Impact ($/Yr) $12,073,178 $10,727,637 -$1,345,542 $6,484,350 $4,492,660 $7,182,256 -$269,575 $808,155 $6,912,681 $11,785,165 $6,624,668

Units:

1 Dekatherm = 10 Therm

1 Dekatherm = 1 million Btu or 1 mmBtu

1 Tonne = 2,200 lbs (Metric Ton)

Assumptions:

Furnace Installations from AHRI national data and RECS 2009 Survey Information

Installations impacted and fuel switching behavior from AGA/APGA Fuel Switching Survey spreadsheet

Energy Consumption, source energy conversion factors, and emission conversion factors from GTI Source Energy and Emissions Analysis Tool (www.cmictools.com)

Natural gas prices from AGA Marginal Billing Survey

Electricity prices from DOE 2011 Technical Support Document for Heat Pumps and Air Conditioners escalated to 2013 prices 

CO2 externalities impact based on assumed trading price of $10/ton)

Site Energy Consumption Impact - Residential 

Heating and Water Heating

High Efficiency Impact High Efficiency Impacts with Fuel Switching 
Mandatory Furnace Rule Change and Potential Unintended Consequences

Impact of Fuel Switching on Residential Heating 

Installation Contractors

Region East North Central

Number of Homes 592,500

Base Case

Natural Gas Furnace Natural Gas 

Furnace

Change w/o 

Fuel Switching

Fraction of 

Impacted Homes 

Switching to 

Electric Heater 

Fraction of 

Impacted Homes 

Switching to 

Electric Heat 

Pump

Fraction of 

Impacted 

Homes with 

Natural Gas 

Furnace

Fraction of 

Impacted 

Homes 

Switching 

from Gas 

Water Heater

Fraction of 

Impacted 

Homes 

Switching to 

Electric 

Water Heater

Total Gas 

Consumption 

with Fuel 

Switching 

(Dth)

Change in 

Electric 

Consumption 

Compared to 

Base Case 

(MWh)

Change in Gas 

Consumption Compared to 

Base Case (Dth) Using 

Survey Results

Efficiency: AFUE/HSPF/EF 80% 90% 100% 8.1 90% 0.62 0.95

Annual consumption (input) of natural gas in 

Dekatherm (Dth) and electricity in kWh

1

 80.3 71.3 -9.0 18,689 8,765 71.3 20.8 3,980

% of homes impacted 25.7% 100.0% 7.3% 16.6% 76.1% -6.7% 6.7%

Number of homes impacted 152,476 152,476 152,476 11,068 25,323 116,084 -10,166 10,166

Total annual consumption. Natural gas in Dth & 

electrcity in MWH. 12,243,834 10,871,549 -1,372,285 206,856 221,960 8,276,815 -211,446 40,459 8,065,369 469,275 -4,178,465

Customer Operating Cost Impact Gas Cost ($/Yr) Electricity Cost 

($/Yr) 

 Change in Energy Cost 

Compared to Base Case 

Using Survey Results ($/Yr) 

Natural gas price in $/Dth and electricity in 

$/kWh

$7.70 $7.70 $7.70 $0.1026 $0.1026 $7.70 $7.70 $0.1026

Annual heating operating cost to residential 

customers $94,277,524 $83,710,927 -$10,566,597 $21,233,083 $22,783,447 $63,731,476 -$1,628,134 $4,153,019 $62,103,342 $48,169,549 $15,995,368

Full Fuel Cycle Source Energy Impact Gas Source 

Energy (Dth/Yr) 

 Electricity 

Source Energy 

(Dth/Yr) 

 Change in Source Energy 

Compared to Base Case 

w/Fuel Switching (Dth/Yr) 

Source Energy Factor 1.09 1.09 1.09 3.30 3.30 1.09 1.09 3.30

Total Source Energy Consumption (Dth) 13,345,779 11,849,988 -1,495,791 2,329,800 2,499,913 9,021,728 -230,476 455,690 8,791,252 5,285,403 730,876

CO2e Emissions Impact

 Gas CO2e 

emissions 

(Tons/Yr) 

 Electricity 

CO2e 

Emissions 

(Tons/Yr) 

 Change in CO2e Emissions 

Compared to Base Case 

Using Survey Results 

(Tons/Yr) 

CO2e Emissions: lbs/mmBtu for natural gas and

lbs/MWH for electricity 147.0 147.0 147.0 2,242 2,242 147.0 147.0 2,242.0 

Total CO2e Emissions in Ton/yr. 818,111 726,417 -91,694 210,805 226,197 553,042 -14,128 41,232 538,913 478,234 199,037

CO2 Externalities Impact

 Gas CO2 

Externalities 

Cost ($/Yr) 

 Electricity CO2 

Externalities 

Cost ($/Yr) 

 Change in CO2 

Externalities Compared to 

Base Case Using Survey 

Results ($/Yr) 

CO2 Externalities Value ($/Tonne) $37.00 $37.00 $37.00 $37.00 $37.00 $37.00 $37.00 $37.00

Total Annual CO2 externalities Impact ($/Yr) $30,270,097 $26,877,434 -$3,392,663 $7,799,791 $8,369,304 $20,462,544 -$522,752 $1,525,576 $19,939,792 $17,694,672 $7,364,366

Units:

1 Dekatherm = 10 Therm

1 Dekatherm = 1 million Btu or 1 mmBtu

1 Tonne = 2,200 lbs (Metric Ton)

Assumptions:

Furnace Installations from AHRI national data and RECS 2009 Survey Information

Installations impacted and fuel switching behavior from AGA/APGA Fuel Switching Survey spreadsheet

Energy Consumption, source energy conversion factors, and emission conversion factors from GTI Source Energy and Emissions Analysis Tool (www.cmictools.com)

Natural gas prices from AGA Marginal Billing Survey

Electricity prices from DOE 2011 Technical Support Document for Heat Pumps and Air Conditioners escalated to 2013 prices 

CO2 externalities impact based on assumed trading price of $10/ton)

Site Energy Consumption Impact - Residential 

Heating and Water Heating

High Efficiency Impact High Efficiency Impacts with Fuel Switching 
Mandatory Furnace Rule Change and Potential Unintended Consequences

Impact of Fuel Switching on Residential Heating 

Installation Contractors

Region Middle Atlantic

Number of Homes 263,333

Base Case

Natural Gas Furnace Natural Gas 

Furnace

Change w/o 

Fuel Switching

Fraction of 

Impacted Homes 

Switching to 

Electric Heater 

Fraction of 

Impacted Homes 

Switching to 

Electric Heat 

Pump

Fraction of 

Impacted 

Homes with 

Natural Gas 

Furnace

Fraction of 

Impacted 

Homes 

Switching 

from Gas 

Water Heater

Fraction of 

Impacted 

Homes 

Switching to 

Electric 

Water Heater

Total Gas 

Consumption 

with Fuel 

Switching 

(Dth)

Change in 

Electric 

Consumption 

Compared to 

Base Case 

(MWh)

Change in Gas 

Consumption Compared to 

Base Case (Dth) Using 

Survey Results

Efficiency: AFUE/HSPF/EF 80% 90% 100% 8.1 90% 0.62 0.95

Annual consumption (input) of natural gas in 

Dekatherm (Dth) and electricity in kWh

1

 67.8 60.2 -7.6 15,775 6,756 60.2 20 3,817

% of homes impacted 28.5% 100.0% 0.4% 15.2% 84.4% -2.1% 2.1%

Number of homes impacted 74,948 74,948 74,948 321 11,383 63,243 -1,595 1,595

Total annual consumption. Natural gas in Dth & 

electrcity in MWH. 5,081,446 4,511,844 -569,602 5,071 76,905 3,807,226 -31,893 6,087 3,775,333 88,063 -1,306,112

Customer Operating Cost Impact Gas Cost ($/Yr) Electricity Cost 

($/Yr) 

 Change in Energy Cost 

Compared to Base Case 

Using Survey Results ($/Yr) 

Natural gas price in $/Dth and electricity in 

$/kWh

$9.50 $9.50 $9.50 $0.1299 $0.1299 $9.50 $9.50 $0.1299

Annual heating operating cost to residential 

customers $48,273,735 $42,862,520 -$5,411,215 $658,729 $9,989,460 $36,168,646 -$302,980 $790,627 $35,865,667 $11,438,817 -$969,252

Full Fuel Cycle Source Energy Impact Gas Source 

Energy (Dth/Yr) 

 Electricity 

Source Energy 

(Dth/Yr) 

 Change in Source Energy 

Compared to Base Case 

w/Fuel Switching (Dth/Yr) 

Source Energy Factor 1.09 1.09 1.09 3.20 3.20 1.09 1.09 3.20

Total Source Energy Consumption (Dth) 5,538,776 4,917,910 -620,866 55,386 839,921 4,149,876 -34,763 66,477 4,115,113 961,784 -461,879

CO2e Emissions Impact

 Gas CO2e 

emissions 

(Tons/Yr) 

 Electricity 

CO2e 

Emissions 

(Tons/Yr) 

 Change in CO2e Emissions 

Compared to Base Case 

Using Survey Results 

(Tons/Yr) 

CO2e Emissions: lbs/mmBtu for natural gas and

lbs/MWH for electricity 147.0 147.0 147.0 1,878 1,878 147.0 147.0 1,878.0 

Total CO2e Emissions in Ton/yr. 339,533 301,473 -38,060 4,329 65,649 254,392 -2,131 5,196 252,261 75,173 -12,099

CO2 Externalities Impact

 Gas CO2 

Externalities 

Cost ($/Yr) 

 Electricity CO2 

Externalities 

Cost ($/Yr) 

 Change in CO2 

Externalities Compared to 

Base Case Using Survey 

Results ($/Yr) 

CO2 Externalities Value ($/Tonne) $37.00 $37.00 $37.00 $37.00 $37.00 $37.00 $37.00 $37.00

Total Annual CO2 externalities Impact ($/Yr) $12,562,720 $11,154,509 -$1,408,210 $160,174 $2,428,995 $9,412,501 -$78,847 $192,246 $9,333,654 $2,781,415 -$447,652

Units:

1 Dekatherm = 10 Therm

1 Dekatherm = 1 million Btu or 1 mmBtu

1 Tonne = 2,200 lbs (Metric Ton)

Assumptions:

Furnace Installations from AHRI national data and RECS 2009 Survey Information

Installations impacted and fuel switching behavior from AGA/APGA Fuel Switching Survey spreadsheet

Energy Consumption, source energy conversion factors, and emission conversion factors from GTI Source Energy and Emissions Analysis Tool (www.cmictools.com)

Natural gas prices from AGA Marginal Billing Survey

Electricity prices from DOE 2011 Technical Support Document for Heat Pumps and Air Conditioners escalated to 2013 prices 

CO2 externalities impact based on assumed trading price of $10/ton)

Site Energy Consumption Impact - Residential 

Heating and Water Heating

High Efficiency Impact High Efficiency Impacts with Fuel Switching 
Mandatory Furnace Rule Change and Potential Unintended Consequences

Impact of Fuel Switching on Residential Heating 

Installation Contractors

Region New England

Number of Homes 50,641

Base Case

Natural Gas Furnace Natural Gas 

Furnace

Change w/o 

Fuel Switching

Fraction of 

Impacted Homes 

Switching to 

Electric Heater 

Fraction of 

Impacted Homes 

Switching to 

Electric Heat 

Pump

Fraction of 

Impacted 

Homes with 

Natural Gas 

Furnace

Fraction of 

Impacted 

Homes 

Switching 

from Gas 

Water Heater

Fraction of 

Impacted 

Homes 

Switching to 

Electric 

Water Heater

Total Gas 

Consumption 

with Fuel 

Switching 

(Dth)

Change in 

Electric 

Consumption 

Compared to 

Base Case 

(MWh)

Change in Gas 

Consumption Compared to 

Base Case (Dth)

Efficiency: AFUE/HSPF/EF 80% 90% 100% 8.1 90% 0.62 0.95

Annual consumption (input) of natural gas in 

Dekatherm (Dth) and electricity in kWh

1

 78.3 69.6 -8.7 18,264 8,252 69.6 20.6 3,935

% of homes impacted 29.2% 100.0% 7.2% 21.6% 71.2% -4.4% 4.4%

Number of homes impacted 14,796 14,796 14,796 1,070 3,196 10,530 -644 644

Total annual consumption. Natural gas in Dth & 

electrcity in MWH. 1,158,526 1,029,800 -128,725 19,536 26,375 732,902 -13,267 2,534 719,636 48,445 -438,890

Customer Operating Cost Impact Gas Cost ($/Yr) Electricity Cost 

($/Yr) 

 Change in Energy Cost 

Compared to Base Case 

Using Survey Results ($/Yr) 

Natural gas price in $/Dth and electricity in 

$/kWh

$9.70 $9.70 $9.70 $0.1747 $0.1747 $9.70 $9.70 $0.1747

Annual heating operating cost to residential 

customers $11,237,698 $9,989,065 -$1,248,633 $3,412,458 $4,607,073 $7,109,154 -$128,688 $442,674 $6,980,465 $8,462,204 $4,204,972

Full Fuel Cycle Source Energy Impact Gas Source 

Energy (Dth/Yr) 

 Electricity 

Source Energy 

(Dth/Yr) 

 Change in Source Energy 

Compared to Base Case 

w/Fuel Switching (Dth/Yr) 

Source Energy Factor 1.09 1.09 1.09 2.82 2.82 1.09 1.09 2.82

Total Source Energy Consumption (Dth) 1,262,793 1,122,483 -140,310 188,024 253,847 798,864 -14,461 24,391 784,403 466,262 -12,128

CO2e Emissions Impact

 Gas CO2e 

emissions 

(Tons/Yr) 

 Electricity 

CO2e 

Emissions 

(Tons/Yr) 

 Change in CO2e Emissions 

Compared to Base Case 

Using Survey Results 

(Tons/Yr) 

CO2e Emissions: lbs/mmBtu for natural gas and

lbs/MWH for electricity 147.0 147.0 147.0 1,399 1,399 147.0 147.0 1,399.0 

Total CO2e Emissions in Ton/yr. 77,411 68,809 -8,601 12,423 16,772 48,971 -886 1,612 48,085 30,806 1,480

CO2 Externalities Impact

 Gas CO2 

Externalities 

Cost ($/Yr) 

 Electricity CO2 

Externalities 

Cost ($/Yr) 

 Change in CO2 

Externalities Compared to 

Base Case Using Survey 

Results ($/Yr) 

CO2 Externalities Value ($/Tonne) $37.00 $37.00 $37.00 $37.00 $37.00 $37.00 $37.00 $37.00

Total Annual CO2 externalities Impact ($/Yr) $2,864,191 $2,545,948 -$318,243 $459,648 $620,559 $1,811,935 -$32,799 $59,627 $1,779,135 $1,139,834 $54,778

Units:

1 Dekatherm = 10 Therm

1 Dekatherm = 1 million Btu or 1 mmBtu

1 Tonne = 2,200 lbs (Metric Ton)

Assumptions:

Furnace Installations from AHRI national data and RECS 2009 Survey Information

Installations impacted and fuel switching behavior from AGA/APGA Fuel Switching Survey spreadsheet

Energy Consumption, source energy conversion factors, and emission conversion factors from GTI Source Energy and Emissions Analysis Tool (www.cmictools.com)

Natural gas prices from AGA Marginal Billing Survey

Electricity prices from DOE 2011 Technical Support Document for Heat Pumps and Air Conditioners escalated to 2013 prices 

CO2 externalities impact based on assumed trading price of $10/ton)

Site Energy Consumption Impact - Residential 

Heating and Water Heating

High Efficiency Impact High Efficiency Impacts with Fuel Switching 
Mandatory Furnace Rule Change and Potential Unintended Consequences

Impact of Fuel Switching on Residential Heating 

Installation Contractors

Region South Atlantic

Number of Homes 238,013

Base Case

Natural Gas Furnace Natural Gas 

Furnace

Change w/o 

Fuel Switching

Fraction of 

Impacted Homes 

Switching to 

Electric Heater 

Fraction of 

Impacted Homes 

Switching to 

Electric Heat 

Pump

Fraction of 

Impacted 

Homes with 

Natural Gas 

Furnace

Fraction of 

Impacted 

Homes 

Switching 

from Gas 

Water Heater

Fraction of 

Impacted 

Homes 

Switching to 

Electric 

Water Heater

Total Gas 

Consumption 

with Fuel 

Switching 

(Dth)

Change in 

Electric 

Consumption 

Compared to 

Base Case 

(MWh)

Change in Gas 

Consumption Compared to 

Base Case (Dth)

Efficiency: AFUE/HSPF/EF 80% 90% 100% 8.1 90% 0.62 0.95

Annual consumption (input) of natural gas in 

Dekatherm (Dth) and electricity in kWh

1

 35.8 31.8 -4.0 8,315 3,427 31.8 18.5 3,537

% of homes impacted 42.3% 100.0% 1.4% 20.5% 78.1% -4.7% 4.7%

Number of homes impacted 100,671 100,671 100,671 1,459 20,601 78,610 -4,781 4,781

Total annual consumption. Natural gas in Dth & 

electrcity in MWH. 3,604,007 3,201,325 -402,682 12,132 70,601 2,499,803 -88,442 16,909 2,411,362 99,642 -1,192,645

Customer Operating Cost Impact Gas Cost ($/Yr) Electricity Cost 

($/Yr) 

 Change in Energy Cost 

Compared to Base Case 

Using Survey Results ($/Yr) 

Natural gas price in $/Dth and electricity in 

$/kWh

$9.99 $9.99 $9.99 $0.1031 $0.1031 $9.99 $9.99 $0.1031

Annual heating operating cost to residential 

customers $36,004,031 $31,981,234 -$4,022,797 $1,251,314 $7,281,825 $24,973,036 -$883,532 $1,744,016 $24,089,504 $10,277,155 -$1,637,372

Full Fuel Cycle Source Energy Impact Gas Source 

Energy (Dth/Yr) 

 Electricity 

Source Energy 

(Dth/Yr) 

 Change in Source Energy 

Compared to Base Case 

w/Fuel Switching (Dth/Yr) 

Source Energy Factor 1.09 1.09 1.09 3.14 3.14 1.09 1.09 3.14

Total Source Energy Consumption (Dth) 3,928,368 3,489,444 -438,924 130,017 756,617 2,724,786 -96,401 181,212 2,628,384 1,067,846 -232,138

CO2e Emissions Impact

 Gas CO2e 

emissions 

(Tons/Yr) 

 Electricity 

CO2e 

Emissions 

(Tons/Yr) 

 Change in CO2e Emissions 

Compared to Base Case 

Using Survey Results 

(Tons/Yr) 

CO2e Emissions: lbs/mmBtu for natural gas and

lbs/MWH for electricity 147.0 147.0 147.0 1,859 1,859 147.0 147.0 1,859.0 

Total CO2e Emissions in Ton/yr. 240,813 213,907 -26,907 10,252 59,658 167,032 -5,910 14,288 161,123 84,198 4,507

CO2 Externalities Impact

 Gas CO2 

Externalities 

Cost ($/Yr) 

 Electricity CO2 

Externalities 

Cost ($/Yr) 

 Change in CO2 

Externalities Compared to 

Base Case Using Survey 

Results ($/Yr) 

CO2 Externalities Value ($/Tonne) $37.00 $37.00 $37.00 $37.00 $37.00 $37.00 $37.00 $37.00

Total Annual CO2 externalities Impact ($/Yr) $8,910,088 $7,914,548 -$995,541 $379,310 $2,207,335 $6,180,196 -$218,652 $528,663 $5,961,544 $3,115,308 $166,764

Units:

1 Dekatherm = 10 Therm

1 Dekatherm = 1 million Btu or 1 mmBtu

1 Tonne = 2,200 lbs (Metric Ton)

Assumptions:

Furnace Installations from AHRI national data and RECS 2009 Survey Information

Installations impacted and fuel switching behavior from AGA/APGA Fuel Switching Survey spreadsheet

Energy Consumption, source energy conversion factors, and emission conversion factors from GTI Source Energy and Emissions Analysis Tool (www.cmictools.com)

Natural gas prices from AGA Marginal Billing Survey

Electricity prices from DOE 2011 Technical Support Document for Heat Pumps and Air Conditioners escalated to 2013 prices 

CO2 externalities impact based on assumed trading price of $10/ton)

Site Energy Consumption Impact - Residential 

Heating and Water Heating

High Efficiency Impact High Efficiency Impacts with Fuel Switching 
Mandatory Furnace Rule Change and Potential Unintended Consequences

Impact of Fuel Switching on Residential Heating 

Installation Contractors

Region East South Central

Number of Homes 101,282

Base Case

Natural Gas Furnace Natural Gas 

Furnace

Change w/o 

Fuel Switching

Fraction of 

Impacted Homes 

Switching to 

Electric Heater 

Fraction of 

Impacted Homes 

Switching to 

Electric Heat 

Pump

Fraction of 

Impacted 

Homes with 

Natural Gas 

Furnace

Fraction of 

Impacted 

Homes 

Switching 

from Gas 

Water Heater

Fraction of 

Impacted 

Homes 

Switching to 

Electric 

Water Heater

Total Gas 

Consumption 

with Fuel 

Switching 

(Dth)

Change in 

Electric 

Consumption 

Compared to 

Base Case 

(MWh)

Change in Gas 

Consumption Compared to 

Base Case (Dth)

Efficiency: AFUE/HSPF/EF 80% 90% 100% 8.1 90% 0.62 0.95

Annual consumption (input) of natural gas in 

Dekatherm (Dth) and electricity in kWh

1

 40.5 36.0 -4.5 9,394 3,962 36.0 18.7 3,567

% of homes impacted 42.9% 100.0% -0.1% 47.9% 52.3% -13.7% 13.7%

Number of homes impacted 43,407 43,407 43,407 -57 20,771 22,693 -5,954 5,954

Total annual consumption. Natural gas in Dth & 

electrcity in MWH. 1,757,967 1,562,637 -195,330 -539 82,294 816,950 -111,349 21,240 705,601 102,995 -1,052,365

Customer Operating Cost Impact Gas Cost ($/Yr) Electricity Cost 

($/Yr) 

 Change in Energy Cost 

Compared to Base Case 

Using Survey Results ($/Yr) 

Natural gas price in $/Dth and electricity in 

$/kWh

$7.59 $7.59 $7.59 $0.1296 $0.1296 $7.59 $7.59 $0.1296

Annual heating operating cost to residential 

customers $13,342,967 $11,860,415 -$1,482,552 -$69,848 $10,664,084 $6,200,653 -$845,139 $2,752,338 $5,355,514 $13,346,575 $5,359,122

Full Fuel Cycle Source Energy Impact Gas Source 

Energy (Dth/Yr) 

 Electricity 

Source Energy 

(Dth/Yr) 

 Change in Source Energy 

Compared to Base Case 

w/Fuel Switching (Dth/Yr) 

Source Energy Factor 1.09 1.09 1.09 3.25 3.25 1.09 1.09 3.25

Total Source Energy Consumption (Dth) 1,916,184 1,703,274 -212,909 -5,979 912,829 890,476 -121,370 235,596 769,105 1,142,446 -4,632

CO2e Emissions Impact

 Gas CO2e 

emissions 

(Tons/Yr) 

 Electricity 

CO2e 

Emissions 

(Tons/Yr) 

 Change in CO2e Emissions 

Compared to Base Case 

Using Survey Results 

(Tons/Yr) 

CO2e Emissions: lbs/mmBtu for natural gas and

lbs/MWH for electricity 147.0 147.0 147.0 2,157 2,157 147.0 147.0 2,157.0 

Total CO2e Emissions in Ton/yr. 117,464 104,413 -13,052 -528 80,686 54,587 -7,440 20,825 47,147 100,982 30,665

CO2 Externalities Impact

 Gas CO2 

Externalities 

Cost ($/Yr) 

 Electricity CO2 

Externalities 

Cost ($/Yr) 

 Change in CO2 

Externalities Compared to 

Base Case Using Survey 

Results ($/Yr) 

CO2 Externalities Value ($/Tonne) $37.00 $37.00 $37.00 $37.00 $37.00 $37.00 $37.00 $37.00

Total Annual CO2 externalities Impact ($/Yr) $4,346,173 $3,863,265 -$482,908 -$19,554 $2,985,375 $2,019,724 -$275,285 $770,508 $1,744,439 $3,736,329 $1,134,595

Units:

1 Dekatherm = 10 Therm

1 Dekatherm = 1 million Btu or 1 mmBtu

1 Tonne = 2,200 lbs (Metric Ton)

Assumptions:

Furnace Installations from AHRI national data and RECS 2009 Survey Information

Installations impacted and fuel switching behavior from AGA/APGA Fuel Switching Survey spreadsheet

Energy Consumption, source energy conversion factors, and emission conversion factors from GTI Source Energy and Emissions Analysis Tool (www.cmictools.com)

Natural gas prices from AGA Marginal Billing Survey

Electricity prices from DOE 2011 Technical Support Document for Heat Pumps and Air Conditioners escalated to 2013 prices 

CO2 externalities impact based on assumed trading price of $10/ton)

Site Energy Consumption Impact - Residential 

Heating and Water Heating

High Efficiency Impact High Efficiency Impacts with Fuel Switching 
Mandatory Furnace Rule Change and Potential Unintended Consequences

Impact of Fuel Switching on Residential Heating 

Installation Contractors

Region West South Central

Number of Homes 232,949

Base Case

Natural Gas Furnace Natural Gas 

Furnace

Change w/o 

Fuel Switching

Fraction of 

Impacted Homes 

Switching to 

Electric Heater 

Fraction of 

Impacted Homes 

Switching to 

Electric Heat 

Pump

Fraction of 

Impacted 

Homes with 

Natural Gas 

Furnace

Fraction of 

Impacted 

Homes 

Switching 

from Gas 

Water Heater

Fraction of 

Impacted 

Homes 

Switching to 

Electric 

Water Heater

Total Gas 

Consumption 

with Fuel 

Switching 

(Dth)

Change in 

Electric 

Consumption 

Compared to 

Base Case 

(MWh)

Change in Gas 

Consumption Compared to 

Base Case (Dth)

Efficiency: AFUE/HSPF/EF 80% 90% 100% 8.1 90% 0.62 0.95

Annual consumption (input) of natural gas in 

Dekatherm (Dth) and electricity in kWh

1

 23.7 21.1 -2.6 5,497 2,229 21.1 17.1 3,272

% of homes impacted 41.9% 100.0% -6.1% 18.4% 87.7% -5.0% 5.0%

Number of homes impacted 97,648 97,648 97,648 -5,963 17,972 85,639 -4,899 4,899

Total annual consumption. Natural gas in Dth & 

electrcity in MWH. 2,314,264 2,060,379 -253,886 -32,776 40,060 1,806,975 -83,769 16,029 1,723,206 23,313 -591,058

Customer Operating Cost Impact Gas Cost ($/Yr) Electricity Cost 

($/Yr) 

 Change in Energy Cost 

Compared to Base Case 

Using Survey Results ($/Yr) 

Natural gas price in $/Dth and electricity in 

$/kWh

$6.31 $6.31 $6.31 $0.0829 $0.0829 $6.31 $6.31 $0.0829

Annual heating operating cost to residential 

customers $14,603,007 $13,000,990 -$1,602,018 -$2,717,046 $3,320,860 $11,402,014 -$528,584 $1,328,745 $10,873,430 $1,932,559 -$1,797,018

Full Fuel Cycle Source Energy Impact Gas Source 

Energy (Dth/Yr) 

 Electricity 

Source Energy 

(Dth/Yr) 

 Change in Source Energy 

Compared to Base Case 

w/Fuel Switching (Dth/Yr) 

Source Energy Factor 1.09 1.09 1.09 3.00 3.00 1.09 1.09 3.00

Total Source Energy Consumption (Dth) 2,522,548 2,245,813 -276,735 -335,594 410,174 1,969,603 -91,309 164,119 1,878,295 238,699 -405,554

CO2e Emissions Impact

 Gas CO2e 

emissions 

(Tons/Yr) 

 Electricity 

CO2e 

Emissions 

(Tons/Yr) 

 Change in CO2e Emissions 

Compared to Base Case 

Using Survey Results 

(Tons/Yr) 

CO2e Emissions: lbs/mmBtu for natural gas and

lbs/MWH for electricity 147.0 147.0 147.0 1,566 1,566 147.0 147.0 1,566.0 

Total CO2e Emissions in Ton/yr. 154,635 137,671 -16,964 -23,331 28,515 120,739 -5,597 11,410 115,141 16,594 -22,899

CO2 Externalities Impact

 Gas CO2 

Externalities 

Cost ($/Yr) 

 Electricity CO2 

Externalities 

Cost ($/Yr) 

 Change in CO2 

Externalities Compared to 

Base Case Using Survey 

Results ($/Yr) 

CO2 Externalities Value ($/Tonne) $37.00 $37.00 $37.00 $37.00 $37.00 $37.00 $37.00 $37.00

Total Annual CO2 externalities Impact ($/Yr) $5,721,492 $5,093,818 -$627,674 -$863,233 $1,055,071 $4,467,336 -$207,101 $422,156 $4,260,235 $613,994 -$847,263

Units:

1 Dekatherm = 10 Therm

1 Dekatherm = 1 million Btu or 1 mmBtu

1 Tonne = 2,200 lbs (Metric Ton)

Assumptions:

Furnace Installations from AHRI national data and RECS 2009 Survey Information

Installations impacted and fuel switching behavior from AGA/APGA Fuel Switching Survey spreadsheet

Energy Consumption, source energy conversion factors, and emission conversion factors from GTI Source Energy and Emissions Analysis Tool (www.cmictools.com)

Natural gas prices from AGA Marginal Billing Survey

Electricity prices from DOE 2011 Technical Support Document for Heat Pumps and Air Conditioners escalated to 2013 prices 

CO2 externalities impact based on assumed trading price of $10/ton)

Site Energy Consumption Impact - Residential 

Heating and Water Heating

High Efficiency Impact High Efficiency Impacts with Fuel Switching 
Mandatory Furnace Rule Change and Potential Unintended Consequences

Impact of Fuel Switching on Residential Heating 

Installation Contractors

Region Mountain South

Number of Homes 86,090

Base Case

Natural Gas Furnace Natural Gas 

Furnace

Change w/o 

Fuel Switching

Fraction of 

Impacted Homes 

Switching to 

Electric Heater 

Fraction of 

Impacted Homes 

Switching to 

Electric Heat 

Pump

Fraction of 

Impacted 

Homes with 

Natural Gas 

Furnace

Fraction of 

Impacted 

Homes 

Switching 

from Gas 

Water Heater

Fraction of 

Impacted 

Homes 

Switching to 

Electric 

Water Heater

Total Gas 

Consumption 

with Fuel 

Switching 

(Dth)

Change in 

Electric 

Consumption 

Compared to 

Base Case 

(MWh)

Change in Gas 

Consumption Compared to 

Base Case (Dth)

Efficiency: AFUE/HSPF/EF 80% 90% 100% 8.1 90% 0.62 0.95

Annual consumption (input) of natural gas in 

Dekatherm (Dth) and electricity in kWh

1

 10.6 9.4 -1.2 2,482 996 9.4 15.6 2,992

% of homes impacted 60.0% 100.0% 2.1% 15.3% 82.6% 3.1% -3.1%

Number of homes impacted 51,654 51,654 51,654 1,103 7,904 42,647 1,584 -1,584

Total annual consumption. Natural gas in Dth & 

electrcity in MWH. 547,531 485,546 -61,985 2,737 7,873 400,878 24,711 -4,739 425,589 5,871 -121,942

Customer Operating Cost Impact Gas Cost ($/Yr) Electricity Cost 

($/Yr) 

 Change in Energy Cost 

Compared to Base Case 

Using Survey Results ($/Yr) 

Natural gas price in $/Dth and electricity in 

$/kWh

$9.50 $9.50 $9.50 $0.1029 $0.1029 $9.50 $9.50 $0.1029

Annual heating operating cost to residential 

customers $5,201,541 $4,612,688 -$588,854 $281,637 $809,961 $3,808,340 $234,756 -$487,608 $4,043,096 $603,990 -$554,455

Full Fuel Cycle Source Energy Impact Gas Source 

Energy (Dth/Yr) 

 Electricity 

Source Energy 

(Dth/Yr) 

 Change in Source Energy 

Compared to Base Case 

w/Fuel Switching (Dth/Yr) 

Source Energy Factor 1.09 1.09 1.09 2.90 2.90 1.09 1.09 2.90

Total Source Energy Consumption (Dth) 596,808 529,245 -67,563 27,095 77,922 436,957 26,935 -46,910 463,892 58,106 -74,810

CO2e Emissions Impact

 Gas CO2e 

emissions 

(Tons/Yr) 

 Electricity 

CO2e 

Emissions 

(Tons/Yr) 

 Change in CO2e Emissions 

Compared to Base Case 

Using Survey Results 

(Tons/Yr) 

CO2e Emissions: lbs/mmBtu for natural gas and

lbs/MWH for electricity 147.0 147.0 147.0 1,508 1,508 147.0 147.0 1,508.0 

Total CO2e Emissions in Ton/yr. 36,585 32,443 -4,142 1,876 5,396 26,786 1,651 -3,249 28,437 4,024 -4,124

CO2 Externalities Impact

 Gas CO2 

Externalities 

Cost ($/Yr) 

 Electricity CO2 

Externalities 

Cost ($/Yr) 

 Change in CO2 

Externalities Compared to 

Base Case Using Survey 

Results ($/Yr) 

CO2 Externalities Value ($/Tonne) $37.00 $37.00 $37.00 $37.00 $37.00 $37.00 $37.00 $37.00

Total Annual CO2 externalities Impact ($/Yr) $1,353,645 $1,200,402 -$153,243 $69,427 $199,666 $991,079 $61,093 -$120,202 $1,052,172 $148,892 -$152,581

Units:

1 Dekatherm = 10 Therm

1 Dekatherm = 1 million Btu or 1 mmBtu

1 Tonne = 2,200 lbs (Metric Ton)

Assumptions:

Furnace Installations from AHRI national data and RECS 2009 Survey Information

Installations impacted and fuel switching behavior from AGA/APGA Fuel Switching Survey spreadsheet

Energy Consumption, source energy conversion factors, and emission conversion factors from GTI Source Energy and Emissions Analysis Tool (www.cmictools.com)

Natural gas prices from AGA Marginal Billing Survey

Electricity prices from DOE 2011 Technical Support Document for Heat Pumps and Air Conditioners escalated to 2013 prices 

CO2 externalities impact based on assumed trading price of $10/ton)

Site Energy Consumption Impact - Residential 

Heating and Water Heating

High Efficiency Impact High Efficiency Impacts with Fuel Switching 
Mandatory Furnace Rule Change and Potential Unintended Consequences

Impact of Fuel Switching on Residential Heating 

Installation Contractors

Region ALL

Number of Homes 2,243,397

Base Case

Natural Gas Furnace Natural Gas 

Furnace

Change w/o 

Fuel Switching

Fraction of 

Impacted Homes 

Switching to 

Electric Heater 

Fraction of 

Impacted Homes 

Switching to 

Electric Heat 

Pump

Fraction of 

Impacted 

Homes with 

Natural Gas 

Furnace

Fraction of 

Impacted 

Homes 

Switching 

from Gas 

Water Heater

Fraction of 

Impacted 

Homes 

Switching to 

Electric 

Water Heater

Total Gas 

Consumption 

with Fuel 

Switching 

(Dth)

Change in 

Electric 

Consumption 

Compared to 

Base Case 

(MWh)

Change in Gas 

Consumption Compared to 

Base Case (Dth)

Efficiency: AFUE/HSPF/EF 80% 90% 100% 8.1 90% 0.62 0.95

Annual consumption (input) of natural gas in 

Dekatherm (Dth) and electricity in kWh

1

 52.0 46.2 -3.9 18,958 5,409 45.2 20.2 3,863

% of homes impacted 32.3% 100.0% 3.2% 19.1% 77.8% -3.4% 3.4%

Number of homes impacted 724,258 724,258 724,258 22,880 138,250 563,128 (24,693) 24,693 

Total annual consumption. Natural gas in Dth & 

electrcity in MWH. 37,626,736 33,427,016 -4,199,720 433,764 747,859 25,461,225 (498,954) 95,400 24,962,270 1,277,023 -12,664,466

Customer Operating Cost Impact 724,258 Gas Cost ($/Yr) Electricity Cost 

($/Yr) 

 Change in Energy Cost 

Compared to Base Case 

Using Survey Results ($/Yr) 

Natural gas price in $/Dth and electricity in 

$/kWh

$8.53 $8.53 $8.54 $0.1253 $0.1171 $8.60 $6.40 $0.0871

Annual heating operating cost to residential 

customers 321,113,308 285,257,499 (35,855,810) 54,363,152 87,605,426 218,934,285 (3,191,761) 8,313,261 $215,742,524 $150,281,839 $44,911,055

Full Fuel Cycle Source Energy Impact Gas Source 

Energy (Dth/Yr) 

 Electricity 

Source Energy 

(Dth/Yr) 

 Change in Source Energy 

Compared to Base Case 

w/Fuel Switching (Dth/Yr) 

Source Energy Factor 1.09 1.09 1.09 3.34 3.22 1.09 1.09 3.42

Total Source Energy Consumption (Dth) 41,013,142 36,435,447 (4,577,695) 4,938,621 8,217,494 27,752,735 (543,860) 1,111,996 27,208,874 14,268,111 463,844

CO2e Emissions Impact

 Gas CO2e 

emissions 

(Tons/Yr) 

 Electricity 

CO2e 

Emissions 

(Tons/Yr) 

 Change in CO2e Emissions 

Compared to Base Case 

Using Survey Results 

(Tons/Yr) 

CO2e Emissions: lbs/mmBtu for natural gas and

lbs/MWH for electricity 147.0 147.0 147.0 2,127.7 1,985.8 147.0 147.0 2,312.1 

Total CO2e Emissions in Ton/yr. 2,514,150 2,233,532 (280,618) 419,512 675,034 1,701,273 (33,339) 100,259 1,667,933 1,194,806 348,589

CO2 Externalities Impact

 Gas CO2 

Externalities 

Cost ($/Yr) 

 Electricity CO2 

Externalities 

Cost ($/Yr) 

 Change in CO2 

Externalities Compared to 

Base Case Using Survey 

Results ($/Yr) 

CO2 Externalities Value ($/Tonne) $37.00 $37.00 $37.00 $37.00 $37.00 $37.00 $37.00 $37.00

Total Annual CO2 externalities Impact ($/Yr) 93,023,553 82,640,699 (10,382,854) 15,521,945 24,976,264 62,947,091 (1,233,552) 3,709,596 $61,713,539 $44,207,805 $12,897,792

Units:

1 Dekatherm = 10 Therm

1 Dekatherm = 1 million Btu or 1 mmBtu

1 Tonne = 2,200 lbs (Metric Ton)

Assumptions:

Furnace Installations from AHRI national data and RECS 2009 Survey Information

Installations impacted and fuel switching behavior from AGA/APGA Fuel Switching Survey spreadsheet

Energy Consumption, source energy conversion factors, and emission conversion factors from GTI Source Energy and Emissions Analysis Tool (www.cmictools.com)

Natural gas prices from AGA Marginal Billing Survey

Electricity prices from DOE 2011 Technical Support Document for Heat Pumps and Air Conditioners escalated to 2013 prices 

CO2 externalities impact based on assumed trading price of $10/ton)

Site Energy Consumption Impact - Residential 

Heating and Water Heating

High Efficiency Impact High Efficiency Impacts with Fuel Switching