HDR1012000160031015961500MILK PRODUCTION                                        
Milk                                                                            
Production                                                                      
                                                                                
National                                                                        
Agricultural                                                                    
Statistics                                                                      
Service                                                                         
                                                                                
USDA                                                                            
Washington, D.C.                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
Released October 15, 1996, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service      
(NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture.  For     
information on "Milk Production" call Kevin Hintzman at (202) 720-4448, office  
hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET.  For assistance with general agricultural      
statistics, information about NASS, its products or services, contact the       
Agricultural Statistics Hotline at 1-800-727-9540 or E-mail: NASS@NASS.USDA.GOV.
The "Milk Production" U.S. Summary is available on AutoFax, (202) 720-2000,     
report 5200.  See page 10.                                                      
                                                                                
              September Milk Production Down 1 Percent                          
                                                                                
Milk production in the 22 major States during September totaled 10.7 billion    
pounds, 1 percent below production in these same States in September 1995.      
August revised production, at 11.0 billion pounds was 1 percent less than August
1995. On a daily basis, milk production has been below 1995 levels every month  
this year.                                                                      
                                                                                
Production per cow in the 22 major States averaged 1,341 pounds for September,  
10 pounds above September 1995.                                                 
                                                                                
                                                                                
The number of cows on farms in the 22 major States was 7.96 million head,       
100,000 head less than September 1995 and 8,000 head less than August 1996.     
This is the thirteenth consecutive month of decline.                            
                                                                                
                                                                                
During the July-September period, the 22 major States produced 32.8 billion     
pounds of milk, 86.7 percent of the U.S. production.  If the remaining 28 States
not surveyed monthly followed the same pattern as the 22 States, the U.S.       
production would be 12.8 billion pounds for July 1996, 12.7 billion pounds for  
August 1996, 12.3 billion pounds for September 1996.                            
                                                                                
                                                                                
         U.S. July-September Milk Production Down 1 Percent                     
                                                                                
The quarterly production of milk for the U.S. was 37.8 billion, 1 percent below 
the July-September period last year.  The average number of milk cows in the    
U.S. during the July-September quarter was 9.35 million head 120,000 head less  
than the same period last year.                                                 
                                                                                
                                                                                
                    Grain and Other Concentrates                                
                                                                                
Grain and other concentrates fed to milk cows on October 1, 1996, averaged      
18.0 pounds per cow, 0.4 pound less than October 1, 1995.                       
                                                                                
                                                                                
               Value of Grain and Other Concentrates                            
                                                                                
The value of grain and other concentrates fed to cows on October 1, averaged    
$9.53 per hundredweight, $1.56 more than October 1, 1995.                       
                                                                                
                                                                                
                              *******                                           
                                                                                
                               Note:                                            
                                                                                
NASS is planning to change the States that are included in the monthly milk     
production estimating program starting January 1997.  The last major change was 
in 1986.  We plan to drop Maryland, North Carolina, and Tennessee while adding  
Arizona.                                                                        
                                                                                
Historic monthly estimates have been created for Arizona back to 1994.          
Therefore, data users will have a comparable data set for 1994, 1995, and 1996  
for the 20 State monthly total.  The 20 States in the monthly estimating program
account for 85 percent of the U.S. milk production.                             
                                                                                
         Milk Cows and Production:  By Quarter, United States,  1995-96         
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
        :    Milk Cows  1/   :  Milk per Cow  2/ :     Milk Production 2/       
        :---------------------------------------------------------------------- 
Quarter :          :         :         :         :         :         : 1996 as  
        :   1995   :  1996   :  1995   :  1996   :  1995   :  1996   :   % of   
        :          :         :         :         :         :         :   1995   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
        :    ---- 1,000 ----          Pounds         Million Pounds    Percent  
        :                                                                       
Jan-Mar :    9,470     9,402     4,112     4,160    38,941    39,111       100  
Apr-Jun :    9,477     9,375     4,276     4,236    40,520    39,706        98  
Jul-Sep :    9,465     9,345     4,049     4,046    38,325    37,813        99  
Oct-Dec :    9,432               4,014              37,857                      
        :                                                                       
Annual  :    9,461              16,451             155,644                      
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
1/  Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh.                          
2/  Excludes milk sucked by calves.                                             
                                                                                
                                                                                
        Milk Cows and Production:  By Month, 22 Selected States, 1995-96        
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
        :    Milk Cows  1/   :  Milk per Cow  2/ :     Milk Production 2/       
        :---------------------------------------------------------------------- 
 Month  :          :         :         :         :         :         : 1996 as  
        :   1995   :  1996   :  1995   :  1996   :  1995   :  1996   :   % of   
        :          :         :         :         :         :         :   1995   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
        :    ---- 1,000 ----          Pounds         Million Pounds    Percent  
        :                                                                       
Jan     :    8,046     8,026     1,404     1,406    11,296    11,285       100  
Feb     :    8,050     8,010     1,295     1,338    10,423    10,719       103  
Mar     :    8,061     7,998     1,453     1,459    11,709    11,671       100  
Apr     :    8,058     7,988     1,427     1,434    11,501    11,451       100  
May     :    8,056     7,987     1,484     1,470    11,959    11,740        98  
Jun     :    8,066     7,984     1,421     1,387    11,465    11,075        97  
Jul     :    8,062     7,977     1,414     1,397    11,397    11,142        98  
Aug     :    8,062     7,969     1,375     1,377    11,086    10,970        99  
Sep     :    8,061     7,961     1,331     1,341    10,729    10,675        99  
Oct     :    8,050               1,364              10,978                      
Nov     :    8,043               1,320              10,616                      
Dec     :    8,034               1,380              11,088                      
        :                                                                       
Annual  :    8,054              16,668             134,247                      
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
1/  Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh.                          
2/  Excludes milk sucked by calves.                                             
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                   Milk Cows and Production:  By State,  September 1995-96      
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
        :    Milk Cows  1/   :  Milk per Cow  2/ :     Milk Production 2/       
        :---------------------------------------------------------------------- 
 State  :          :         :         :         :         :         : 1996 as  
        :   1995   :  1996   :  1995   :  1996   :  1995   :  1996   :   % of   
        :          :         :         :         :         :         :   1995   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
        :    ---- 1,000 ----         Pounds          Million Pounds    Percent  
        :                                                                       
CA      :    1,256     1,264     1,645     1,680     2,066     2,124       103  
FL      :      162       155       995     1,075       161       167       104  
ID      :      238       262     1,500     1,550       357       406       114  
IL      :      162       158     1,260     1,290       204       204       100  
IN      :      143       140     1,250     1,250       179       175        98  
IA      :      250       250     1,310     1,250       328       313        95  
KY      :      161       151       980       955       158       144        91  
MD      :       92        85     1,110     1,190       102       101        99  
MI      :      326       326     1,375     1,365       448       445        99  
MN      :      600       600     1,220     1,210       732       726        99  
MO      :      187       175     1,090     1,055       204       185        91  
NM      :      197       195     1,470     1,540       290       300       103  
NY      :      702       703     1,350     1,330       948       935        99  
NC      :       86        80     1,220     1,240       105        99        94  
OH      :      288       285     1,260     1,230       363       351        97  
PA      :      646       642     1,330     1,305       859       838        98  
TN      :      124       111     1,070     1,040       133       115        86  
TX      :      401       395     1,095     1,095       439       433        99  
VT      :      158       158     1,315     1,315       208       208       100  
VA      :      129       126     1,200     1,170       155       147        95  
WA      :      268       265     1,620     1,650       434       437       101  
WI      :    1,485     1,435     1,250     1,270     1,856     1,822        98  
        :                                                                       
22 State:                                                                       
 Total  :    8,061     7,961     1,331     1,341    10,729    10,675        99  
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
1/  Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh.                          
2/  Excludes milk sucked by calves.                                             
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
       Milk Cows and Production:  By State,  August 1995-96 1/                  
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
        :    Milk Cows  2/   :  Milk per Cow  3/ :     Milk Production 3/       
        :---------------------------------------------------------------------- 
 State  :          :         :         :         :         :         : 1996 as  
        :   1995   :  1996   :  1995   :  1996   :  1995   :  1996   :   % of   
        :          :         :         :         :         :         :   1995   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
        :    ---- 1,000 ----          Pounds         Million Pounds    Percent  
        :                                                                       
CA      :    1,255     1,263     1,715     1,690     2,152     2,134        99  
FL      :      162       156     1,070     1,070       173       167        97  
ID      :      237       260     1,580     1,630       374       424       113  
IL      :      162       158     1,270     1,300       206       205       100  
IN      :      143       140     1,260     1,260       180       176        98  
IA      :      250       250     1,350     1,275       338       319        94  
KY      :      161       151       995       965       160       146        91  
MD      :       92        86     1,120     1,255       103       108       105  
MI      :      326       327     1,425     1,405       465       459        99  
MN      :      600       600     1,270     1,280       762       768       101  
MO      :      187       175     1,105     1,085       207       190        92  
NM      :      198       196     1,545     1,585       306       311       102  
NY      :      700       703     1,395     1,370       977       963        99  
NC      :       86        81     1,245     1,245       107       101        94  
OH      :      289       285     1,275     1,240       368       353        96  
PA      :      643       641     1,345     1,360       865       872       101  
TN      :      124       112     1,050     1,060       130       119        92  
TX      :      402       397     1,115     1,135       448       451       101  
VT      :      158       158     1,355     1,360       214       215       100  
VA      :      129       126     1,195     1,150       154       145        94  
WA      :      270       264     1,715     1,735       463       458        99  
WI      :    1,488     1,440     1,300     1,310     1,934     1,886        98  
        :                                                                       
22 State:                                                                       
 Total  :    8,062     7,969     1,375     1,377    11,086    10,970        99  
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
1/  1996 revised.  2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh.        
3/  Excludes milk sucked by calves.                                             
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
       Milk Cows and Production:  By State and United States                    
                          Revised April-June  1995-1996                         
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
        :     Apr-Jun Milk Cows 1/     :  Apr-Jun Milk Production 2/ :  1996    
 State  :------------------------------------------------------------: as % of  
        :     1995      :     1996     :    1995      :     1996     :  1995    
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
        :            ---- 1,000 ----            -- Million Pounds --   Percent  
        :                                                                       
AL      :            34             32            131            114        87  
AK      :           0.7            0.8           2.98           3.10       104  
AZ      :           115            119            597            638       107  
AR      :            61             58            195            174        89  
CA      :         1,253          1,262          6,478          6,536       101  
CO      :            83             84            391            413       106  
CT      :            32             31            134            128        96  
DE      :            10             10           37.7           38.6       102  
FL      :           163            157            633            629        99  
GA      :           101             96            420            379        90  
HI      :          10.6            9.3           39.5           34.6        88  
ID      :           229            250          1,050          1,162       111  
IL      :           163            160            666            656        98  
IN      :           144            140            575            556        97  
IA      :           251            249          1,038            971        94  
KS      :            81             83            305            300        98  
KY      :           163            155            544            480        88  
LA      :            79             78            243            225        93  
ME      :            40             40            165            166       101  
MD      :            93             87            353            334        95  
MA      :            28             27            114            112        98  
MI      :           326            326          1,439          1,406        98  
MN      :           597            597          2,485          2,440        98  
MS      :            56             52            195            176        90  
MO      :           193            182            735            661        90  
MT      :            21             20             81             77        95  
NE      :            74             69            276            258        93  
NV      :            24             25          110.4          117.5       106  
NH      :            20             19             84             85       101  
NJ      :            23             23             83             77        93  
NM      :           190            194            942            975       104  
NY      :           704            702          3,012          2,985        99  
NC      :            87             83            376            346        92  
ND      :            65             63            221            214        97  
OH      :           289            285          1,210          1,163        96  
OK      :            98             98            333            330        99  
OR      :            98             93            436            415        95  
PA      :           639            643          2,741          2,736       100  
RI      :           2.2              2            8.5            7.9        93  
SC      :            27             26            104             98        94  
SD      :           118            112            422            377        89  
TN      :           129            115            468            406        87  
TX      :           401            400          1,617          1,640       101  
UT      :            88             92            378            397       105  
VT      :           156            156            654            648        99  
VA      :           129            126            506            451        89  
WA      :           267            262          1,367          1,342        98  
WV      :            21             20             67             64        96  
WI      :         1,494          1,456          6,036          5,743        95  
WY      :           6.1            6.1           21.4           21.7       101  
        :                                                                       
US   3/ :         9,477          9,375         40,520         39,706        98  
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
1/  Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh.                          
2/  Excludes milk sucked by calves.                                             
3/  Milk cows will not add due to rounding.                                     
              Milk Cows and Production:  By State and United States             
                       Preliminary July-September  1995-96                      
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
        :     Jul-Sep Milk Cows 1/     :  Jul-Sep Milk Production 2/ :  1996    
 State  :------------------------------------------------------------: as % of  
        :      1995     :     1996     :     1995     :     1996     :  1995    
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
        :            ---- 1,000 ----            -- Million Pounds --   Percent  
        :                                                                       
AL      :            33             31            101             91        90  
AK      :           0.7            0.8           3.05           3.56       117  
AZ      :           114            119            488            515       106  
AR      :            60             56            174            162        93  
CA      :         1,255          1,263          6,400          6,441       101  
CO      :            82             84            385            415       108  
CT      :            31             30            126            121        96  
DE      :            10             10           32.9           33.4       102  
FL      :           162            156            518            513        99  
GA      :           100             97            339            322        95  
HI      :          10.2            9.3           34.5           32.4        94  
ID      :           236            260          1,103          1,251       113  
IL      :           162            158            625            619        99  
IN      :           143            140            546            529        97  
IA      :           250            250          1,009            955        95  
KS      :            82             80            275            280       102  
KY      :           162            151            487            436        90  
LA      :            79             77            194            177        91  
ME      :            40             40            163            164       101  
MD      :            92             86            311            317       102  
MA      :            28             27            112            109        97  
MI      :           326            327          1,394          1,365        98  
MN      :           600            600          2,289          2,289       100  
MS      :            54             50            153            142        93  
MO      :           188            176            625            568        91  
MT      :            21             20             80             78        98  
NE      :            74             69            274            255        93  
NV      :            23           25.5          105.8          119.9       113  
NH      :            20             18             81             78        96  
NJ      :            23             23             77             71        92  
NM      :           198            196            910            926       102  
NY      :           701            703          2,916          2,875        99  
NC      :            86             81            326            302        93  
ND      :            64             62            212            198        93  
OH      :           289            285          1,118          1,073        96  
OK      :            96             96            317            300        95  
OR      :            97             93            424            404        95  
PA      :           643            642          2,604          2,594       100  
RI      :           2.1            1.9            7.9            7.3        92  
SC      :            26             26             85             85       100  
SD      :           118            112            404            370        92  
TN      :           124            112            401            354        88  
TX      :           402            397          1,365          1,339        98  
UT      :            88             92            379            410       108  
VT      :           158            158            637            633        99  
VA      :           129            126            465            434        93  
WA      :           269            264          1,361          1,351        99  
WV      :            21             20             65             60        92  
WI      :         1,488          1,440          5,802          5,623        97  
WY      :             6            6.2             21           22.3       106  
        :                                                                       
U S  3/ :         9,465          9,345         38,325         37,813        99  
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
1/  Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh.                          
2/  Excludes milk sucked by calves.                                             
3/  Milk cows will not add due to rounding.                                     
                                                                                
            Grain and Other Concentrates:  Quantity Fed Daily and Value         
                 By State and United States, October 1, 1995-96                 
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
            :Grain and Other Concentrates : Value per 100 Pounds of Concentrate 
   State    :  Fed Daily per Milk Cow     :   Ration Fed to Milk Cows           
            :------------------------------------------------------------------ 
            :     1995     :    1996      :      1995      :       1996         
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
            :        ----- Pounds -----               -------- Dollars -------- 
            :                                                                   
    AL      :       18.6            16.7              8.40               10.50  
    AK      :       19.5            19.5             13.80               14.50  
    AZ      :       21.6            21.0              7.80                8.70  
    AR      :       17.5            17.7              8.20               10.10  
    CA      :       20.5            20.0              8.00                9.00  
    CO      :       22.5            20.5              7.20                9.50  
    CT      :       17.0            17.5              9.10               11.55  
    DE      :       16.3            13.2              8.80                9.70  
    FL      :       24.0            25.0              7.80                8.40  
    GA      :       22.9            22.0              7.90                9.90  
    ID      :       21.0            21.5              7.30                8.30  
    IL      :       17.1            16.1              7.90                9.15  
    IN      :       17.0            16.6              7.60               10.35  
    IA      :       16.4            17.2              6.50                9.90  
    KS      :       19.0            18.0              7.50               10.80  
    KY      :       16.4            16.1              8.65               10.50  
    LA      :       19.0            18.5              8.35               10.70  
    ME      :       17.0            15.5              8.90               11.60  
    MD      :       14.4            13.0              8.35               10.20  
    MA      :       15.5            16.0              8.95               11.65  
    MI      :       18.5            18.5              7.30                8.75  
    MN      :       17.3            15.7              7.80                9.00  
    MS      :       17.4            17.6              8.20                9.80  
    MO      :       18.5            17.0              8.00               10.00  
    MT      :       16.2            16.5              7.25                8.40  
    NE      :       16.5            16.2              7.30                8.30  
    NV      :       21.0            21.0              8.20               10.50  
    NH      :       16.0            17.0              8.80               11.20  
    NJ      :       14.9            14.5              8.60               12.60  
    NM      :       26.0            26.0              6.60                7.80  
    NY      :       15.3            14.8              9.00               11.70  
    NC      :       17.5            17.7              8.95               10.90  
    ND      :       16.5            15.0              6.30                7.10  
    OH      :       16.3            17.5              8.10               10.10  
    OK      :       18.0            18.8              8.40               10.00  
    OR      :       20.0            18.6              9.30               10.50  
    PA      :       16.0            16.2              9.80               11.00  
    RI      :       16.0            15.0              9.05               11.00  
    SC      :       20.0            22.0              8.00                9.65  
    SD      :       17.0            16.5              6.75                8.20  
    TN      :       16.0            17.0              9.00               11.10  
    TX      :       22.2            20.1              7.90                9.40  
    UT      :       16.9            16.4              7.70                9.20  
    VT      :       16.0            15.0              8.90               11.40  
    VA      :       16.0            14.5              8.90               10.10  
    WA      :       20.0            20.0              8.20                9.65  
    WV      :       14.0            14.0              9.05               10.80  
    WI      :       17.1            16.0              7.20                8.70  
    WY      :       13.0            13.4              6.50                7.80  
            :                                                                   
    US      :       18.4            18.0              7.97                9.53  
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
                                                                                
                       Reliability Statement                                    
                                                                                
Survey Procedures:  Primary data used to determine these estimates were         
                    obtained from a sample of producers.  Individual States     
maintain a list of all known milk producers and information on the size of their
herd.  States use all known sources of producers to ensure that their lists are 
as complete as possible. Generally, all large producers and a sample of small   
producers are included in the survey.  Questionnaires are mailed to producers   
near the end of the month to obtain data for the first day of the month.        
Additional reports are obtained by telephone, as needed, to supplement the mail 
response.                                                                       
                                                                                
                                                                                
Estimation Procedures:  State offices prepare these estimates using survey      
                        indications, historic trends, and any available         
administrative data. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural
Statistics Board for reasonableness.                                            
                                                                                
                                                                                
Revision Policy:  Milk production, rate per cow, and number of cows are         
                  subject to revision the following month for monthly States or 
the following quarter for the quarterly States.  Normally, Federal Market Order 
sales are the main basis for revisions. However, data for all orders are not    
available in time for this revision.  Estimates are again subject to revisions  
in February each year based on additional administrative data.  In the event    
that additional changes are necessary, a third revision is possible in February 
the following year.  Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five-year 
Census of Agriculture, conducted by the Department of Commerce, are available.  
No revisions are made after that date.                                          
                                                                                
                                                                                
Reliability:  Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in the   
              sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability.     
Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions,       
duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The
effects of these errors cannot be measured directly.  They are minimized through
rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful     
review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness.                 
                                                                                
To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report,  
the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the table below.    
The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance 
and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates.  The   
"Root Mean Square Error" for milk cow inventory estimates over the past 10      
quarters is 1.3 percent.  This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final 
July-September estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 9.35 
million head by more than 1.3 percent, or about 121,000 head.  Chances are 9 out
of 10 that the difference will not exceed 2.4 percent, or about 224,000 head    
(the 90 percent confidence level).                                              
                                                                                
                Reliability of July-September Milk Estimates 1/                 
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
             :        :              :    Difference Between    :               
             :        :              :      First and Final     :    Number of  
             :  Root  :     90%      :         Estimates  1/    :    Quarters   
    Item     :  Mean  :  Confidence  :------------------------------------------
             : Square :    Level     :        :         :       : First : First 
             :  Error :              : Average: Smallest:Largest: Above : Below 
             :        :              :        :         :       : Final : Final 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             :   - Percent -     ---------- Mil Lbs. ----------     - Number -  
             :                                                                  
Milk         :   0.9     1.6     605     286      157      538     10       0   
  Production :                                                                  
             :                  --------- 1,000 Head ----------                 
                                                                                
             :                                                                  
All Milk     :   1.3     2.4     224     117       15      179     10       0   
  Cows       :                                                                  
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/  Based on records for the past 10 July-September quarters.                   
                                                                                
The next "Milk Production" report will be released at 3 P.M. ET on              
November 14, 1996.                                                              
                                                                                
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