HDR1012000160030915971500Milk Production                                        
                                                                                
     National                                                                   
     Agricultural                                                               
     Statistics                                                                 
     Service                                                                    
                                                                                
USDA                                                                            
Washington, D.C.                                                                
                                                                                
Released September 15, 1997, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service    
(NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture.  For     
information on "Milk Production" call James Hand at (202) 690-3236, office      
hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET.                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
              August Milk Production Up 4.4 Percent                             
                                                                                
Milk production in the 20 major States during August totaled 11.3 billion       
pounds, up 4.4 percent from production in these same States in August 1996.     
July revised production, at 11.4 billion pounds was up 4.6 percent from July    
1996.                                                                           
                                                                                
                                                                                
Production per cow in the 20 major States averaged 1,454 pounds for August, 72  
pounds above August 1996.                                                       
                                                                                
                                                                                
The number of cows on farms in the 20 major States was 7.74 million head,       
58,000 head less than August 1996 and 3,000 head less than July 1997.           
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
          Milk Cows and Production:  By Quarter, United States, 1996-97         
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          :   Milk Cows 1/    :  Milk Per Cow 2/  :     Milk Production 2/      
          :---------------------------------------------------------------------
  Quarter :         :         :         :         :         :         : Change  
          :  1996   :  1997   :  1996   :  1997   :  1996   :  1997   :  From   
          :         :         :         :         :         :         :  1996   
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          :  ---- 1,000 ----    ---- Pounds ----     Million Pounds     Percent 
          :                                                                     
Jan-Mar   :  9,397     9,267     4,156     4,200     39,053   38,922      -.3   
Apr-Jun   :  9,369     9,253     4,231     4,391     39,638   40,630      2.5   
Jul-Sep   :  9,338               4,035               37,674                     
Oct-Dec   :  9,300               4,083               37,966                     
          :                                                                     
Annual    :  9,351              16,505              154,331                     
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/  Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh.                          
2/  Excludes milk sucked by calves.                                             
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
        Milk Cows and Production:  By Month, 20 Selected States, 1996-97        
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          :   Milk Cows 1/    :  Milk Per Cow 2/  :     Milk Production 2/      
          :---------------------------------------------------------------------
   Month  :         :         :         :         :         :         : Change  
          :  1996   :  1997   :  1996   :  1997   :  1996   :  1997   :  From   
          :         :         :         :         :         :         :  1996   
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          :  ---- 1,000 ----    ---- Pounds ----     Million Pounds     Percent 
          :                                                                     
Jan       :  7,846     7,757     1,415     1,439     11,103   11,163       .5   
Feb       :  7,828     7,743     1,348     1,331     10,549   10,309     -2.3   
Mar       :  7,822     7,736     1,469     1,501     11,487   11,611      1.1   
Apr       :  7,818     7,731     1,441     1,481     11,265   11,452      1.7   
May       :  7,816     7,733     1,479     1,532     11,560   11,847      2.5   
Jun       :  7,818     7,738     1,398     1,475     10,926   11,410      4.4   
Jul       :  7,815     7,747     1,400     1,477     10,944   11,443      4.6   
Aug       :  7,802     7,744     1,382     1,454     10,786   11,260      4.4   
Sep       :  7,795               1,342               10,459                     
Oct       :  7,788               1,391               10,831                     
Nov       :  7,775               1,350               10,499                     
Dec       :  7,765               1,418               11,013                     
          :                                                                     
Annual    :  7,807              16,833              131,422                     
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/  Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh.                          
2/  Excludes milk sucked by calves.                                             
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
               Estimated Milk Production:  United States, 1996-97               
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
            :             By Month             :           Cumulative           
            :-------------------------------------------------------------------
    Month   :         :           :   Change   :         :         :   Change   
            :  1996   :   1997    :    From    :  1996   :  1997   :    From    
            :         :           :    1996    :         :         :    1996    
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
            :   Million Pounds       Percent       Million Pounds     Percent   
            :                                                                   
Jan         : 13,085     13,133          .4       13,085    13,133        .4    
Feb         : 12,431     12,129        -2.4       25,516    25,262      -1.0    
Mar         : 13,537     13,660          .9       39,053    38,922       -.3    
Apr         : 13,230     13,409         1.4       52,283    52,331        .1    
May         : 13,576     13,871         2.2       65,859    66,202        .5    
Jun         : 12,832     13,350         4.0       78,691    79,552       1.1    
Jul         : 12,809     13,393         4.6       91,500    92,945       1.6    
Aug         : 12,624     13,179         4.4      104,124   106,124       1.9    
Sep         : 12,241                             116,365                        
Oct         : 12,714                             129,079                        
Nov         : 12,324                             141,403                        
Dec         : 12,928                             154,331                        
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
               Milk Cows and Production:  By State, August 1996-97              
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          :   Milk Cows 1/    :  Milk Per Cow 2/  :     Milk Production 2/      
          :---------------------------------------------------------------------
   Month  :         :         :         :         :         :         : Change  
          :  1996   :  1997   :  1996   :  1997   :  1996   :  1997   :  From   
          :         :         :         :         :         :         :  1996   
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          :  ---- 1,000 ----     ---- Pounds ---     Million Pounds     Percent 
          :                                                                     
AZ        :    122       126     1,440     1,484       176       187      6.3   
CA        :  1,265     1,302     1,685     1,825     2,132     2,376     11.4   
FL        :    156       161     1,070     1,085       167       175      4.8   
ID        :    260       274     1,640     1,670       426       458      7.5   
IL        :    153       146     1,230     1,320       188       193      2.7   
IN        :    140       140     1,260     1,300       176       182      3.4   
IA        :    250       245     1,275     1,380       319       338      6.0   
KY        :    151       146       975     1,025       147       150      2.0   
MI        :    320       308     1,405     1,500       450       462      2.7   
MN        :    600       585     1,275     1,310       765       766       .1   
MO        :    175       173     1,090     1,095       191       189     -1.0   
NM        :    196       201     1,585     1,680       311       338      8.7   
NY        :    703       698     1,360     1,400       956       977      2.2   
OH        :    285       280     1,230     1,310       351       367      4.6   
PA        :    641       639     1,360     1,395       872       891      2.2   
TX        :    397       388     1,135     1,080       451       419     -7.1   
VT        :    157       157     1,375     1,410       216       221      2.3   
VA        :    126       121     1,160     1,264       146       153      4.8   
WA        :    264       264     1,735     1,760       458       465      1.5   
WI        :  1,441     1,390     1,310     1,405     1,888     1,953      3.4   
          :                                                                     
20-State  :                                                                     
 Total    :  7,802     7,744     1,382     1,454    10,786    11,260      4.4   
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/  Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh.                          
2/  Excludes milk sucked by calves.                                             
                                                                                
              Milk Cows and Production:  By State, July 1996-97 1/              
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          :   Milk Cows 2/    :  Milk per Cow 3/  :     Milk Production 3/      
          :---------------------------------------------------------------------
   State  :         :         :         :         :         :         : Change  
          :  1996   :  1997   :  1996   :  1997   :  1996   :  1997   :  From   
          :         :         :         :         :         :         :  1996   
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          :  ---- 1,000 ----     ---- Pounds ---     Million Pounds     Percent 
          :                                                                     
AZ        :    122       129     1,445     1,635       176       211     19.9   
CA        :  1,264     1,296     1,725     1,850     2,180     2,398     10.0   
FL        :    156       161     1,145     1,170       179       188      5.0   
ID        :    258       272     1,650     1,710       426       465      9.2   
IL        :    154       147     1,240     1,320       191       194      1.6   
IN        :    140       140     1,270     1,325       178       186      4.5   
IA        :    250       246     1,290     1,390       323       342      5.9   
KY        :    151       146       955     1,015       144       148      2.8   
MI        :    323       310     1,405     1,500       454       465      2.4   
MN        :    600       585     1,315     1,360       789       796       .9   
MO        :    177       173     1,085     1,110       192       192       .0   
NM        :    196       201     1,605     1,700       315       342      8.6   
NY        :    703       698     1,385     1,430       974       998      2.5   
OH        :    285       281     1,245     1,310       355       368      3.7   
PA        :    643       639     1,375     1,410       884       901      1.9   
TX        :    399       388     1,140     1,130       455       438     -3.7   
VT        :    157       157     1,400     1,425       220       224      1.8   
VA        :    126       121     1,125     1,230       142       149      4.9   
          :    263       265     1,735     1,765       456       468      2.6   
WI        :  1,448     1,392     1,320     1,415     1,911     1,970      3.1   
          :                                                                     
20 State  :                                                                     
 Total    :  7,815     7,747     1,400     1,477    10,944    11,443      4.6   
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/  1997 revised.                                                               
2/  Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh.                          
3/  Excludes milk sucked by calves.                                             
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                       Reliability Statement                                    
                                                                                
Survey Procedures:  Primary data used to determine these estimates were         
obtained from a sample of producers.  Individual States maintain a list of all  
known milk producers and information on the size of their herd.  States use all 
known sources of producers to ensure that their lists are as complete as        
possible. Generally, all large producers and a sample of small producers are    
included in the survey.  Questionnaires are mailed to producers near the end of 
the month to obtain data for the first day of the month.  Additional reports    
are obtained by telephone, as needed, to supplement the mail response.          
                                                                                
                                                                                
Estimation Procedures:  State offices prepare these estimates using survey      
indications, historic trends, and any available administrative data. Individual 
State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board for           
reasonableness.                                                                 
                                                                                
                                                                                
Revision Policy:  Milk production, rate per cow, and number of cows are subject 
to revision the following month for monthly States or the following quarter for 
the quarterly States.  Normally, Federal Market Order sales are the main basis  
for revisions. However, data for all orders are not available in time for this  
revision.  Estimates are again subject to revisions in February each year based 
on additional administrative data.  In the event that additional changes are    
necessary, a third revision is possible in February the following year.         
Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five-year Census of            
Agriculture are available. No revisions are made after that date.               
                                                                                
                                                                                
Reliability:  Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in the   
sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results    
are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and    
mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these 
errors cannot be measured directly.  They are minimized through rigid quality   
controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all     
reported data for consistency and reasonableness.                               
                                                                                
To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report,  
the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items on the next page. The  
"Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and 
is computed using the differences between first and final estimates.  The "Root 
Mean Square Error" for milk cow inventory estimates over the past 10 quarters   
is 1.1 percent.  This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final          
April-June estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 9.25     
million                                                                         
head by more than 1.1 percent, or about 102,000 head.  Chances are 9 out of 10  
that the difference will not exceed 2.1 percent, or about 194,000 head (the 90  
percent confidence level).                                                      
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                   Reliability of April-June Milk Estimates 1/                  
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             :        :      90%       :   Difference Between   :               
             :        :   Confidence   :    First and Final     :   Number of   
             :  Root  :     Level      :      Estimates 1/      :   Quarters    
     Item    :  Mean  :---------------------------------------------------------
             : Square :       :        :       :        :       : First : First 
             : Error  :Percent:Estimate:Average:Smallest:Largest: Above : Below 
             :        :       :        :       :        :       : Final : Final 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             :     Percent       ------- Million Pounds ------       Number     
             :                                                                  
Milk         :                                                                  
  Production :   .5      1.0     406      172      22      426      8       2   
             :     Percent       --------- 1,000 Head --------       Number     
             :                                                                  
All Milk     :                                                                  
  Cows       :  1.1      2.1     194       95       8      188     10       0   
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/  Based on records for the past 10 April-June quarters.                       
                                                                                
                                                                                
The next Milk Production report will be released at 3 p.m. ET on October 15,    
1997.                                                                           
                                                                                
                                                                                
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                 USDA to Hold Data Users Meeting                                
                      Holiday Inn Mart Plaza                                    
                        Chicago, Illinois                                       
                         October 20, 1997                                       
                                                                                
The National Agricultural Statistics Service will                               
be organizing an open forum for Data Users.  The                                
purpose will be to provide updates on pending                                   
changes in the USDA statistical and information                                 
programs including the status of the 1997 Census                                
of Agriculture, and to seek comments and input                                  
from data users.  Other agencies to be represented                              
will include the Agricultural Marketing Service,                                
the Economic Research Service, the Foreign                                      
Agricultural Service, and the World Agricultural                                
Outlook Board.                                                                  
                                                                                
                                                                                
For registration details, see the NASS home page                                
http://www.usda.gov/nass/ or contact Fred Vogel                                 
(NASS) (202) 720-3896 or fvogel@nass.usda.gov