10C-i

APPENDIX 10C. PENETRATION OF EMERGING AND EXISTING 

TECHNOLOGIES 

TABLE OF CONTENTS 

10C.1 INTRODUCTION .......................................................................................................10C-1 

10C.2 PRICE AND PERFORMANCE OF EMERGING AND EXISTING 

TECHNOLOGIES .......................................................................................................10C-1 

10C.2.1 LED............................................................................................................10C-1 

10C.2.2 CMH ..........................................................................................................10C-3 

10C.2.3 R-CFL ........................................................................................................10C-3 

LIST OF TABLES 

Table 10C.1 LED Device and Luminaire Performance Projections.......................................10C-2 

Table 10C.2 LED Device and Driver Cost Projections..........................................................10C-2 

Table 10C.3 LED Reflector Lamp Cost Projection................................................................10C-3 

Table 10C.4 LED GSFL Replacement Cost Projection..........................................................10C-3 

Table 10C.5 CFL Historical Prices.........................................................................................10C-4 
APPENDIX 10C. PENETRATION OF EMERGING AND EXISTING 

TECHNOLOGIES 

10C.1 INTRODUCTION 

In this appendix, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) presents the assumptions and 

methodology used to estimate the penetration of emerging technologies and existing 

technologies in the base case shipments projections for IRL and GSFL. For both GSFL and IRL, 

DOE analyzes an existing technologies scenario which models the penetration of only existing 

technologies and an emerging technology scenario which models additional penetration from 

emerging technologies. For the GSFL existing technology scenario, DOE analyzes only 

fluorescent technologies covered under this rulemaking. For the IRL existing technology 

scenario, DOE models the penetration of R-CFL as R-CFL are a mature technology with a 

relatively stable price and efficacy points. In both the GSFL and IRL emerging technology 

scenario, DOE separately considered the potential market penetration of two technologies: 1) 

light-emitting diodes (LED) (into the commercial, residential, and industrial sectors), and 2) 

ceramic metal halide (CMH) (into the commercial and industrial sectors). 

In order to model the penetration of both emerging and existing technologies, DOE 

forecasted the future performance of both LEDs and CMH and estimated historical prices for RCFL. These performance forecasts allowed DOE to calculate the simple payback period 

encountered by consumers for each technology and thus project the market penetration of these 

technologies for each year during the shipments analysis. 

10C.2 PRICE AND PERFORMANCE OF EMERGING AND EXISTING 

TECHNOLOGIES 

10C.2.1 LED 

To estimate the future efficacy and lifetime of LED luminaires, DOE used the efficacy 

projection from DOE’s Solid State Lighting Multi-Year Program Plan (SSL MYPP).i

 The SSL 

MYPP estimates a luminaire efficacy of 62 lm/W in 2008 climbing to 94 lm/W in 2010 and then 

stabilizing at 151 lm/W in 2020. This luminaire projection takes into account improvements in 

performance of LED devices as well as fixture, thermal, and driver efficiencies. DOE used the 

commercial cool white device projection for both the commercial and residential sector. DOE 

understands that the residential sector may prefer a warm white luminaire. However, as stated in 

the SSL MYPP, manufacturers are achieving a warm white luminaire by using a red LED and 

cool-white LED devices. Therefore, DOE believes this efficacy projection is appropriate for 

both the residential and commercial sectors. The projection in the SSL MYPP is shown below in 

Table 10C.1. DOE used the lifetime assumed in the SSL MYPP of 50,000 hours. 

10C-1
Table 10C.1 LED Device and Luminaire Performance Projections 

Device 

EfficacyCommercial 

Cool White 

(lm/W 25 

degrees C) 

Fixture 

Efficiency 

Thermal 

Efficiency

Driver 

Efficiency

Resultant 

Luminaire 

Efficiency

Luminaire 

Efficacy 

Cool 

White 

(lm/W) 

2008 108 80% 85% 85% 58% 62 

2010 147 83% 89% 87% 64% 94 

2012 164 87% 91% 89% 70% 115 

2015 188 92% 95% 92% 80% 151 

 In order to estimate the future price of both the LED reflector lamp replacement and the 

LED fluorescent system replacement, DOE estimated the OEM selling price for the components 

of the LED luminaire and then applied a markup that is consistent with current retail prices for 

these luminaires. The LED luminaire is composed of several parts: the LED device, driver, heat 

sink, and other components. To estimate the OEM selling price for the LED device, DOE used 

the projection of LED device costs from the SSL MYPP. By interviewing an integrated circuits 

manufacturer, DOE was able to estimate the cost of the LED driver. DOE used both the LED 

device and driver cost estimates for the LED luminaire replacing GSFL systems and IRL. The 

device price and driver costs are displayed in Table 10C.2. 

Table 10C.2 LED Device and Driver Cost Projections 

Device Price from OEM 

($/klm) Driver Cost ($/W) 

2007 25 0.42 

2008 18 0.40 

2015 2 0.28 

2020 2 0.20 

 To estimate the cost of other components used in a replacement LED reflector lamp, 

DOE purchased the LR6 6” recessed down light manufactured by CREE LED lighting as this 

luminaire exhibits similar efficacies shown in Table 10C.1. By analyzing the components used 

in this luminaire, DOE estimated the cost of the heat sink and other smaller components as $11 

in 2007. DOE estimated that these components could drop to $4 in 2020. Using current retail 

prices for the LR6 6” recessed down light, DOE estimated a 220% markup from OEM 

manufacturer selling price to retail price. The resulting prices of the LED reflector lamp 

replacements for each of the baseline reflector lamps are shown in Table 10C.3 below. 

10C-2
 Table 10C.3 LED Reflector Lamp Cost Projection 

Heat Sink 

and Other 

Costs for 

IRL ($) 

630 

Lumen 

LED-RL 

Luminaire 

Cost 

Projection 

($) 

1050 

Lumen 

LED-RL 

Luminaire 

Cost 

Projection 

($) 

1310 

Lumen 

LED-RL 

Luminaire 

Cost 

Projection 

($) 

2007 11 100 151 182 

2008 10 75 110 132 

2015 7 20 24 26 

2020 4 13 16 18 

 To estimate the cost of the LED replacement for a GSFL luminaire, DOE found a 

commercially available retrofit kit that included a LED replacement for a 4-foot medium bipin 

system. DOE used the retrofit kit as a current baseline from which to project future cost, 

efficacy and price points. Table 10C.4 presents the cost projections for the LED GSFL 

replacement. 

Table 10C.4 LED GSFL Replacement Cost Projection 

6200 Lumen LED-GSFL 

Luminaire Cost 

Projection ($) 

2007 339 

2008 121 

2015 63 

2020 53 

10C.2.2 CMH 

In order to estimate the future performance of ceramic metal halide lamps, DOE 

interviewed several manufacturers. These manufacturers believed that the integrated ballast 

CMH lamp recently introduced on the market could penetrate into GSFL and IRL shipments. 

Manufacturer interviews also revealed that the efficacy of this lamp could increase from 48.8 

lm/W in 2007 to 56.1 lm/W in 2012. After 2012, the efficacy of the CMH lamp would stabilize. 

Manufacturers did not believe that the cost of this lamp would decrease overtime given the 

increase in efficacy. Therefore, DOE estimated the current and future cost of the CMH using a 

similar methodology to that described in chapter 7. For the analysis, DOE used a cost of $58 

and a lifetime of 15,000 hours for the CMH lamp. 

10C.2.3 R-CFL 

To estimate historical and future penetrations of R-CFL into both the residential and 

commercial sectors, DOE estimated historical prices of R-CFL. As historical prices of R-CFL In 

10C-3
2005, 2006, and 2007, are not publicly available, DOE used publicly available information on 

historical prices of a CFL sold in Wal-Mart and estimated a similar reduction in price for R-CFL. 

Table 10C.5 CFL Historical Prices 

Year CFL Historical 

Price 

R-CFL 

Historical Price 

PAR30 

R-CFL Historical 

Price PAR38 

2005 3.19ii 11.45 13.90 

2006 2.50iii 8.97 10.89 

2007 1.65iv 5.92 7.19 

10C-4
10C-5

 

REFERENCES 

i

Multi-Year Program Plan FY’09 to FY’15: Solid-State Lighting Research and Development. 

Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of Energy. 

http://apps1.eere.energy.gov/buildings/publications/pdfs/ssl/ssl_mypp2009_web.pdf. 

ii Charles Fishman. “How many light bulbs does it take to change the world? One. And You’re 

Looking At It:” Fast Company Magazine. September 2006. Last Accessed: December 19,.2008 

<http://www.fastcompany.com/magazine/108/open_lightbulbs.html?page=0%2C2> 

iii “Wal-mart in efficient light bulb sales push.”Hybrid Cars. November 2006. Last Accessed 

December 19, 2008. 

<http://www.hybridcars.com/forums/wal-mart-efficient-light-bulb-sales-push.html> 

iv Associated Press. “Wal-mart sells 100 millionth compact fluorescent bulb.” Fox News. October 

2007. Last Accessed December 19, 2008 

<http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,298926,00.html>