HDR1012000160031015971500Milk Production                                        
                                                                                
     National                                                                   
     Agricultural                                                               
     Statistics                                                                 
     Service                                                                    
                                                                                
USDA                                                                            
Washington, D.C.                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
Released October 15, 1997, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service      
(NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture.  For     
information on "Milk Production" call James Hand at 202-690-3236, office hours  
7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET.                                                      
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
            September Milk Production Up 2.9 Percent                            
                                                                                
Milk production in the 20 major States during September totaled 10.8 billion    
pounds, up 2.9 percent from production in these same States in September 1996.  
August revised production, at 11.2 billion pounds was up 4.1 percent from       
August 1996.                                                                    
                                                                                
                                                                                
Production per cow in the 20 major States averaged 1,390 pounds for September,  
48 pounds above September 1996.                                                 
                                                                                
                                                                                
The number of cows on farms in the 20 major States was 7.74 million head,       
54,000 head less than September 1996 and 3,000 head less than August 1997.      
                                                                                
                                                                                
                   July-September Up 3.5 Percent                                
                                                                                
The quarterly production of milk for the U.S. was 39.0 billion pounds, 3.5      
percent above the July-September period last year.  The average number of milk  
cows in the U.S. during the July-September quarter was 9.25 million head,       
91,000 head less than the same period last year.                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                  Grain and Other Concentrates Fed                              
                                                                                
Grain and other concentrates fed to milk cows on October 1, 1997 averaged 18.7  
pounds, up 0.7 pounds from October 1, 1996, but down 0.3 pounds from July 1,    
1997.                                                                           
                                                                                
                                                                                
                 Value of Grain Other Concentrates                              
                                                                                
The value of grain and other concentrates fed to milk cows on October 1, 1997   
averaged $8.51 per hundredweight, $1.02 less than October 1, 1996.              
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
          Milk Cows and Production:  By Quarter, United States, 1996-97         
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          :   Milk Cows 1/    :  Milk Per Cow 2/  :     Milk Production 2/      
          :---------------------------------------------------------------------
  Quarter :         :         :         :         :         :         : Change  
          :  1996   :  1997   :  1996   :  1997   :  1996   :  1997   :  From   
          :         :         :         :         :         :         :  1996   
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          :  ---- 1,000 ----    ---- Pounds ----     Million Pounds     Percent 
          :                                                                     
Jan-Mar   :  9,397     9,267     4,156     4,200     39,053   38,922      -.3   
Apr-Jun   :  9,369     9,254     4,231     4,393     39,638   40,648      2.5   
Jul-Sep   :  9,338     9,247     4,035     4,216     37,674   38,989      3.5   
Oct-Dec   :  9,300               4,083               37,966                     
          :                                                                     
Annual    :  9,351              16,505              154,331                     
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/  Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh.                          
2/  Excludes milk sucked by calves.                                             
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
        Milk Cows and Production:  By Month, 20 Selected States, 1996-97        
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          :   Milk Cows 1/    :  Milk Per Cow 2/  :     Milk Production 2/      
          :---------------------------------------------------------------------
   Month  :         :         :         :         :         :         : Change  
          :  1996   :  1997   :  1996   :  1997   :  1996   :  1997   :  From   
          :         :         :         :         :         :         :  1996   
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          :  ---- 1,000 ----    ---- Pounds ----     Million Pounds     Percent 
          :                                                                     
Jan       :  7,846     7,757     1,415     1,439     11,103   11,163       .5   
Feb       :  7,828     7,743     1,348     1,331     10,549   10,309     -2.3   
Mar       :  7,822     7,736     1,469     1,501     11,487   11,611      1.1   
Apr       :  7,818     7,731     1,441     1,481     11,265   11,452      1.7   
May       :  7,816     7,733     1,479     1,532     11,560   11,847      2.5   
Jun       :  7,818     7,738     1,398     1,475     10,926   11,410      4.4   
Jul       :  7,815     7,747     1,400     1,477     10,944   11,443      4.6   
Aug       :  7,802     7,744     1,382     1,450     10,786   11,227      4.1   
Sep       :  7,795     7,741     1,342     1,390     10,459   10,758      2.9   
Oct       :  7,788               1,391               10,831                     
Nov       :  7,775               1,350               10,499                     
Dec       :  7,765               1,418               11,013                     
          :                                                                     
Annual    :  7,807              16,833              131,422                     
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/  Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh.                          
2/  Excludes milk sucked by calves.                                             
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
               Estimated Milk Production:  United States, 1996-97               
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
            :             By Month             :           Cumulative           
            :-------------------------------------------------------------------
    Month   :         :           :   Change   :         :         :   Change   
            :  1996   :   1997    :    From    :  1996   :  1997   :    From    
            :         :           :    1996    :         :         :    1996    
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
            :   Million Pounds       Percent       Million Pounds     Percent   
            :                                                                   
Jan         : 13,085     13,133          .4       13,085    13,133        .4    
Feb         : 12,431     12,129        -2.4       25,516    25,262      -1.0    
Mar         : 13,537     13,660          .9       39,053    38,922       -.3    
Apr         : 13,230     13,411         1.4       52,283    52,333        .1    
May         : 13,576     13,874         2.2       65,859    66,207        .5    
Jun         : 12,832     13,363         4.1       78,691    79,570       1.1    
Jul         : 12,809     13,346         4.2       91,500    92,916       1.5    
Aug         : 12,624     13,095         3.7      104,124   106,011       1.8    
Sep         : 12,241     12,548         2.5      116,365   118,559       1.9    
Oct         : 12,714                             129,079                        
Nov         : 12,324                             141,403                        
Dec         : 12,928                             154,331                        
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
             Milk Cows and Production:  By State, September 1996-97             
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          :   Milk Cows 1/    :  Milk Per Cow 2/  :     Milk Production 2/      
          :---------------------------------------------------------------------
   Month  :         :         :         :         :         :         : Change  
          :  1996   :  1997   :  1996   :  1997   :  1996   :  1997   :  From   
          :         :         :         :         :         :         :  1996   
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          :  ---- 1,000 ----     ---- Pounds ---     Million Pounds     Percent 
          :                                                                     
AZ        :    122       126     1,475     1,429       180       180       .0   
CA        :  1,267     1,308     1,685     1,720     2,135     2,250      5.4   
FL        :    155       160     1,045     1,040       162       166      2.5   
ID        :    263       280     1,550     1,600       408       448      9.8   
IL        :    153       146     1,220     1,270       187       185     -1.1   
IN        :    140       140     1,250     1,275       175       179      2.3   
IA        :    250       245     1,250     1,345       313       330      5.4   
KY        :    151       144       965     1,015       146       146       .0   
MI        :    317       304     1,365     1,430       433       435       .5   
MN        :    600       580     1,220     1,235       732       716     -2.2   
MO        :    175       172     1,050     1,035       184       178     -3.3   
NM        :    195       205     1,505     1,580       293       324     10.6   
NY        :    703       697     1,300     1,330       914       927      1.4   
OH        :    285       278     1,190     1,260       339       350      3.2   
PA        :    642       639     1,305     1,350       838       863      3.0   
TX        :    395       388     1,090     1,050       431       407     -5.6   
VT        :    156       156     1,325     1,375       207       215      3.9   
VA        :    126       120     1,140     1,240       144       149      3.5   
WA        :    265       263     1,650     1,700       437       447      2.3   
WI        :  1,435     1,390     1,255     1,340     1,801     1,863      3.4   
          :                                                                     
20-State  :                                                                     
 Total    :  7,795     7,741     1,342     1,390    10,459    10,758      2.9   
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/  Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh.                          
2/  Excludes milk sucked by calves.                                             
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
             Milk Cows and Production:  By State, August 1996-97 1/             
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          :   Milk Cows 2/    :  Milk per Cow 3/  :     Milk Production 3/      
          :---------------------------------------------------------------------
   State  :         :         :         :         :         :         : Change  
          :  1996   :  1997   :  1996   :  1997   :  1996   :  1997   :  From   
          :         :         :         :         :         :         :  1996   
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          :  ---- 1,000 ----     ---- Pounds ---     Million Pounds     Percent 
          :                                                                     
AZ        :    122       126     1,440     1,484       176       187      6.3   
CA        :  1,265     1,302     1,685     1,820     2,132     2,370     11.2   
FL        :    156       160     1,070     1,045       167       167       .0   
ID        :    260       277     1,640     1,680       426       465      9.2   
IL        :    153       146     1,230     1,320       188       193      2.7   
IN        :    140       140     1,260     1,300       176       182      3.4   
IA        :    250       245     1,275     1,380       319       338      6.0   
KY        :    151       145       975     1,020       147       148       .7   
MI        :    320       308     1,405     1,500       450       462      2.7   
MN        :    600       585     1,275     1,300       765       761      -.5   
MO        :    175       172     1,090     1,075       191       185     -3.1   
NM        :    196       203     1,585     1,650       311       335      7.7   
NY        :    703       698     1,360     1,400       956       977      2.2   
OH        :    285       280     1,230     1,310       351       367      4.6   
PA        :    641       639     1,360     1,395       872       891      2.2   
TX        :    397       388     1,135     1,080       451       419     -7.1   
VT        :    157       157     1,375     1,425       216       224      3.7   
VA        :    126       121     1,160     1,250       146       151      3.4   
WA        :    264       262     1,735     1,725       458       452     -1.3   
WI        :  1,441     1,390     1,310     1,405     1,888     1,953      3.4   
          :                                                                     
20-State  :                                                                     
 Total    :  7,802     7,744     1,382     1,450    10,786    11,227      4.1   
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/  1997 revised.                                                               
2/  Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh.                          
3/  Excludes milk sucked by calves.                                             
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
             Milk Cows and Production:  By State and United States,             
                           Revised April-June, 1996-97                          
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          :    Apr-Jun Milk Cows 1/     : Apr-Jun Milk Production 2/  : Change  
   State  :-----------------------------------------------------------:  From   
          :     1996     :     1997     :     1996     :     1997     :  1996   
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          :   -------- 1,000 -------       ---- Million Pounds ----     Percent 
          :                                                                     
AL        :      32             31            115            110          -4.3  
AK        :        .8             .8            3.33           3.52        5.7  
AZ        :     119            128            658            720           9.4  
AR        :      58             56            174            174            .0  
CA        :   1,262          1,285          6,544          7,104           8.6  
CO        :      84             85            413            433           4.8  
CT        :      30             30            128            129            .8  
DE        :       9.5           10.9           36.3           42.7        17.6  
FL        :     157            162            631            675           7.0  
GA        :      96             97            382            393           2.9  
HI        :       9.3            9.1           34.6           33.2        -4.0  
ID        :     252            267          1,172          1,304          11.3  
IL        :     155            148            602            595          -1.2  
IN        :     140            140            552            562           1.8  
IA        :     249            247            971          1,019           4.9  
KS        :      83             82            300            340          13.3  
KY        :     155            145            480            487           1.5  
LA        :      78             78            222            216          -2.7  
ME        :      40             40            166            170           2.4  
MD        :      86             86            336            342           1.8  
MA        :      27             26            111            110           -.9  
MI        :     322            308          1,383          1,390            .5  
MN        :     597            587          2,434          2,417           -.7  
MS        :      52             47            176            176            .0  
MO        :     182            173            648            653            .8  
MT        :      20             19             77             78           1.3  
NE        :      69             70            260            273           5.0  
NV        :      25             26            119            117          -1.7  
NH        :      20             19             85             84          -1.2  
NJ        :      22             21             77             76          -1.3  
NM        :     194            200            975          1,030           5.6  
NY        :     702            698          2,988          2,994            .2  
NC        :      81             76            333            316          -5.1  
ND        :      63             57            214            188         -12.1  
OH        :     285            282          1,123          1,138           1.3  
OK        :      98             97            330            330            .0  
OR        :      93             92            416            415           -.2  
PA        :     643            639          2,736          2,767           1.1  
RI        :       2              2              8              8.4         5.0  
SC        :      26             26             96            106          10.4  
SD        :     112            106            377            357          -5.3  
TN        :     116            113            415            423           1.9  
TX        :     400            389          1,640          1,545          -5.8  
UT        :      92             93            397            407           2.5  
VT        :     156            156            666            667            .2  
VA        :     126            122            453            475           4.9  
WA        :     262            265          1,342          1,378           2.7  
WV        :      20             18             64             67           4.7  
WI        :   1,460          1,393          5,753          5,789            .6  
WY        :       6              6.1           21.3           21.4          .5  
          :                                                                     
US 3/     :   9,369          9,254         39,638         40,648           2.5  
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/  Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh.                          
2/  Excludes milk sucked by calves.                                             
3/  Milk cows will not add due to rounding.                                     
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
             Milk Cows and Production:  By State and United States,             
                       Preliminary July-September, 1996-97                      
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          :    Jul-Sep Milk Cows 1/     : Jul-Sep Milk Production 2/  : Change  
   State  :-----------------------------------------------------------:  From   
          :     1996     :     1997     :     1996     :     1997     :  1996   
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          :   -------- 1,000 -------       ---- Million Pounds ----     Percent 
          :                                                                     
AL        :      31             30             89             93           4.5  
AK        :        .8             .9            3.55           3.96       11.5  
AZ        :     122            127            532            578           8.6  
AR        :      56             55            162            160          -1.2  
CA        :   1,265          1,302          6,447          7,018           8.9  
CO        :      83             85            411            423           2.9  
CT        :      29             30            118            125           5.9  
DE        :       9.5           11.2           32.2           43.7        35.7  
FL        :     156            160            508            521           2.6  
GA        :      97             96            322            326           1.2  
HI        :       9.2            8.9           31.9           30.7        -3.8  
ID        :     260            276          1,260          1,378           9.4  
IL        :     153            146            566            572           1.1  
IN        :     140            140            529            547           3.4  
IA        :     250            245            955          1,010           5.8  
KS        :      80             81            280            315          12.5  
KY        :     151            145            437            442           1.1  
LA        :      78             76            178            175          -1.7  
ME        :      40             40            163            170           4.3  
MD        :      85             86            322            335           4.0  
MA        :      27             26            108            105          -2.8  
MI        :     320            307          1,337          1,362           1.9  
MN        :     600            583          2,286          2,273           -.6  
MS        :      50             47            142            140          -1.4  
MO        :     176            172            567            555          -2.1  
MT        :      20             19             78             76          -2.6  
NE        :      69             70            258            275           6.6  
NV        :      25             26            121            117          -3.3  
NH        :      19             19             78             81           3.8  
NJ        :      22             21             71             70          -1.4  
NM        :     196            203            919          1,001           8.9  
NY        :     703            698          2,844          2,902           2.0  
NC        :      80             75            298            295          -1.0  
ND        :      62             53            198            172         -13.1  
OH        :     285            280          1,045          1,085           3.8  
OK        :      96             96            300            310           3.3  
OR        :      93             92            410            418           2.0  
PA        :     642            639          2,594          2,655           2.4  
RI        :       1.9            2              7.4            7.6         2.7  
SC        :      26             26             83             85           2.4  
SD        :     112            104            370            350          -5.4  
TN        :     115            112            368            375           1.9  
TX        :     397            388          1,337          1,264          -5.5  
UT        :      92             91            401            398           -.7  
VT        :     157            157            643            663           3.1  
VA        :     126            121            432            449           3.9  
WA        :     264            263          1,351          1,367           1.2  
WV        :      20             18             60             66          10.0  
WI        :   1,441          1,391          5,600          5,786           3.3  
WY        :       6              6             21             20.4        -2.9  
          :                                                                     
US 3/     :   9,338          9,247         37,674         38,989           3.5  
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/  Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh.                          
2/  Excludes milk sucked by calves.                                             
3/  Milk cows will not add due to rounding.                                     
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
           Grain and Other Concentrates:  Quantity Fed Daily and Value          
                 by State and United States, October 1, 1996-97                 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
            :Grain and Other Concentrates : Value Per 100 Pounds of Concentrate 
            :   Fed Daily Per Milk Cow    :       Ration Fed to Milk Cows       
    State   :-------------------------------------------------------------------
            :     1996     :     1997     :      1996       :       1997        
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
            :     ------ Pounds -----            -------- Dollars -------       
            :                                                                   
AL          :     16.7           18.3            10.50               9.20       
AK          :     19.5           19.5            14.50              14.80       
AZ          :     21.0           26.0             8.70               7.50       
AR          :     17.7           17.6            10.10               8.80       
CA          :     20.0           20.5             9.00               8.10       
CO          :     20.5           21.0             9.50               7.30       
CT          :     17.5           17.0            11.55              10.50       
DE          :     13.2           15.5             9.70               9.80       
FL          :     25.0           31.0             8.40               7.10       
GA          :     22.0           23.0             9.90               8.60       
ID          :     21.5           22.0             8.30               7.20       
IL          :     16.1           16.4             9.15               8.40       
IN          :     16.6           16.2            10.35               8.80       
IA          :     17.2           15.9             9.90               8.45       
KS          :     18.0           19.0            10.80               8.60       
KY          :     16.1           16.8            10.50               9.15       
LA          :     18.5           17.9            10.70               9.50       
ME          :     15.5           16.5            11.60              10.75       
MD          :     13.0           16.5            10.20              10.80       
MA          :     16.0           15.5            11.65              10.55       
MI          :     18.5           19.0             8.75               8.60       
MN          :     15.7           18.0             9.00               8.10       
MS          :     17.6           17.6             9.80               9.30       
MO          :     17.0           17.0            10.00               8.50       
MT          :     16.5           16.0             8.40               7.70       
NE          :     16.2           16.9             8.30               6.90       
NV          :     21.0           23.0            10.50               8.50       
NH          :     17.0           16.5            11.20              10.75       
NJ          :     14.5           14.5            12.60              11.20       
NM          :     26.0           26.2             7.80               7.25       
NY          :     14.8           14.2            11.70              10.70       
NC          :     17.7           17.9            10.90               9.90       
ND          :     15.0           15.2             7.10               6.60       
OH          :     17.5           17.1            10.10               9.50       
OK          :     18.8           20.7            10.00               8.40       
OR          :     18.6           19.0            10.50               9.90       
PA          :     16.2           16.4            11.00              10.85       
RI          :     15.0           16.0            11.00              10.50       
SC          :     22.0           22.0             9.65               8.80       
SD          :     16.5           15.8             8.20               7.10       
TN          :     17.0           16.5            11.10               9.90       
TX          :     20.1           21.2             9.40               8.20       
UT          :     16.4           17.7             9.20               8.00       
VT          :     15.0           16.0            11.40              10.35       
VA          :     14.5           16.2            10.10               9.40       
WA          :     20.0           20.0             9.65               8.70       
WV          :     14.0           15.0            10.80              10.75       
WI          :     16.0           15.9             8.70               7.30       
WY          :     13.4           13.0             7.80               6.70       
            :                                                                   
US          :     18.0           18.7             9.53               8.51       
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                       Reliability Statement                                    
                                                                                
Survey Procedures:  Primary data used to determine these estimates were         
obtained from a sample of producers.  Individual States maintain a list of all  
known milk producers and information on the size of their herd.  States use all 
known sources of producers to ensure that their lists are as complete as        
possible. Generally, all large producers and a sample of small producers are    
included in the survey.  Questionnaires are mailed to producers near the end of 
the month to obtain data for the first day of the month.  Additional reports    
are obtained by telephone, as needed, to supplement the mail response.          
                                                                                
                                                                                
Estimation Procedures:  State offices prepare these estimates using survey      
indications, historic trends, and any available administrative data. Individual 
State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board for           
reasonableness.                                                                 
                                                                                
                                                                                
Revision Policy:  Milk production, rate per cow, and number of cows are subject 
to revision the following month for monthly States or the following quarter for 
the quarterly States.  Normally, Federal Market Order sales are the main basis  
for revisions. However, data for all orders are not available in time for this  
revision.  Estimates are again subject to revisions in February each year based 
on additional administrative data.  In the event that additional changes are    
necessary, a third revision is possible in February the following year.         
Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five-year Census of            
Agriculture are available. No revisions are made after that date.               
                                                                                
                                                                                
Reliability:  Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in the   
sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results    
are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and    
mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these 
errors cannot be measured directly.  They are minimized through rigid quality   
controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all     
reported data for consistency and reasonableness.                               
                                                                                
To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report,  
the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items on the next page. The  
"Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and 
is computed using the differences between first and final estimates.  The "Root 
Mean Square Error" for milk cow inventory estimates over the past 10 quarters   
is 1.3 percent.  This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final          
July-September estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 9.25 
million head by more than 1.3 percent, or about 120,000 head.  Chances are 9    
out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 2.3 percent, or about 213,000     
head (the 90 percent confidence level).                                         
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                Reliability of July-September  Milk Estimates 1/                
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             :        :      90%       :   Difference Between   :               
             :        :   Confidence   :    First and Final     :   Number of   
             :  Root  :     Level      :      Estimates 1/      :   Quarters    
     Item    :  Mean  :---------------------------------------------------------
             : Square :       :        :       :        :       : First : First 
             : Error  :Percent:Estimate:Average:Smallest:Largest: Above : Below 
             :        :       :        :       :        :       : Final : Final 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             :     Percent       ------- Million Pounds ------       Number     
             :                                                                  
Milk         :                                                                  
  Production :   .7      1.4     546      255     139      456     10       0   
             :     Percent       --------- 1,000 Head --------       Number     
             :                                                                  
All Milk     :                                                                  
  Cows       :  1.3      2.3     213      109       7      179     10       0   
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/  Based on records for the past 10 July-September quarters.                   
                                                                                
                                                                                
The next "Milk Production" report will be released at 3 p.m. ET on November 14, 
1997.                                                                           
                                                                                
                                                                                
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