HDR1012000160030915951500MILK PRODUCTION                                        
HDR2012000160030915951500MILK PRODUCTION HIGHLIGHTS                             
Released September 15, 1995, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service    
(NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture.  For     
information on "Milk Production" call Kevin Hintzman at (202) 720-4448,         
office hours 8:00 a.m. to 4:30 p.m. ET.  For assistance with general            
agricultural statistics, information about NASS, its products or services,      
contact the NASS Information Hotline at 1-800-727-9540 or E-mail:  NASS@AG.GOV. 
                                                                                
                     August Milk Production Up Slightly                         
                                                                                
Milk production in the 22 major States during August totaled 11.1 billion       
pounds, slightly above production in these same States in August 1994.  July    
revised production, at 11.4 billion pounds was 1 percent more than July 1994.   
                                                                                
Production per cow in the 22 major States averaged 1,373 pounds for August      
4 pounds above August 1994.                                                     
                                                                                
The number of cows on farms in the 22 major States was 8.11 million head,       
unchanged from August 1994 but 2,000 head more than July 1995.                  
                                                                                
During the April-June period, the 22 major States produced 34.9 billion pounds  
of milk, 86.1 percent of the U.S. production. If the remaining 28 States not    
surveyed monthly followed the same pattern as the 22 States, the U.S. production
would be 12.9 billion pounds for August 1995.                                   
                                                                                
Da 1-1 (9-95)                                                                   
HDR2012000160030915951500MILK COWS & PROD.:  BY QTR., US, 94-95                 
        Milk Cows and Production:  By Quarter, United States,  1994-95          
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
        :    Milk Cows  1/   :  Milk per Cow  2/ :     Milk Production 2/       
        :---------------------------------------------------------------------  
Quarter :          :         :         :         :         :         : 1995 as  
        :   1994   :  1995   :  1994   :  1995   :  1994   :  1995   :   % of   
        :          :         :         :         :         :         :   1994   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
        :    ---- 1,000 ----        Pounds          Million Pounds     Percent  
        :                                                                       
Jan-Mar :    9,506     9,517     3,951     4,093    37,560    38,950       104  
Apr-Jun :    9,530     9,517     4,188     4,254    39,916    40,487       101  
Jul-Sep :    9,539               4,007              38,217                      
Oct-Dec :    9,524               3,983              37,933                      
        :                                                                       
Annual  :    9,525              16,129             153,626                      
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
1/  Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh.                          
2/  Excludes milk sucked by calves.                                             
                                                                                
       Milk Cows and Production:  By Month, 22 Selected States, 1994-95         
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
        :    Milk Cows  1/   :  Milk per Cow  2/ :     Milk Production 2/       
        :---------------------------------------------------------------------  
 Month  :          :         :         :         :         :         : 1995 as  
        :  1994    :  1995   :  1994   :  1995   :  1994   :  1995   :   % of   
        :          :         :         :         :         :         :   1994   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
        :    ---- 1,000 ----        Pounds          Million Pounds     Percent  
        :                                                                       
Jan     :    8,092     8,090     1,343     1,394    10,870    11,280       104  
Feb     :    8,082     8,088     1,236     1,291     9,990    10,441       105  
Mar     :    8,074     8,103     1,401     1,444    11,315    11,698       103  
Apr     :    8,080     8,097     1,396     1,417    11,282    11,477       102  
May     :    8,097     8,093     1,457     1,475    11,799    11,936       101  
Jun     :    8,107     8,104     1,388     1,414    11,249    11,461       102  
Jul     :    8,104     8,106     1,389     1,408    11,260    11,412       101  
Aug     :    8,108     8,108     1,369     1,373    11,102    11,134       100  
Sep     :    8,109               1,318              10,689                      
Oct     :    8,104               1,354              10,970                      
Nov     :    8,098               1,312              10,624                      
Dec     :    8,094               1,370              11,090                      
        :                                                                       
Annual  :    8,096              16,334             132,240                      
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
1/  Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh.                          
2/  Excludes milk sucked by calves.                                             
HDR2012000160030915951500MILK COWS & PROD.:  BY ST., AUGUST 94-95               
             Milk Cows and Production:  By State,  August 1994-95               
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
        :    Milk Cows  1/   :  Milk per Cow  2/ :     Milk Production 2/       
        :---------------------------------------------------------------------  
 State  :          :         :         :         :         :         : 1995 as  
        :   1994   :  1995   :  1994   :  1995   :  1994   :  1995   :   % of   
        :          :         :         :         :         :         :   1994   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
        :    ---- 1,000 ----        Pounds          Million Pounds     Percent  
        :                                                                       
CA      :    1,239     1,255     1,730     1,710     2,143     2,146       100  
FL      :      176       162     1,075     1,060       189       172        91  
ID      :      213       235     1,590     1,570       339       369       109  
IL      :      164       162     1,300     1,270       213       206        97  
IN      :      145       142     1,330     1,310       193       186        96  
IA      :      265       262     1,270     1,285       337       337       100  
KY      :      167       163     1,000     1,045       167       170       102  
MD      :       91        94     1,165     1,140       106       107       101  
MI      :      327       326     1,460     1,440       477       469        98  
MN      :      605       600     1,255     1,270       759       762       100  
MO      :      196       188     1,120     1,130       220       212        96  
NM      :      171       198     1,667     1,575       285       312       109  
NY      :      716       700     1,325     1,380       949       966       102  
NC      :       90        86     1,265     1,245       114       107        94  
OH      :      294       288     1,255     1,295       369       373       101  
PA      :      641       643     1,310     1,345       840       865       103  
TN      :      157       154     1,030     1,050       162       162       100  
TX      :      402       402     1,190     1,105       478       444        93  
VT      :      157       158     1,300     1,325       204       209       102  
VA      :      129       129     1,210     1,240       156       160       103  
WA      :      263       271     1,720     1,710       452       463       102  
WI      :    1,500     1,490     1,300     1,300     1,950     1,937        99  
        :                                                                       
22 State:                                                                       
 Total  :    8,108     8,108     1,369     1,373    11,102    11,134       100  
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
1/  Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh.                          
2/  Excludes milk sucked by calves.                                             
                                                                                
HDR2012000160030915951500MILK COWS & PROD.:  BY ST., JULY 94-95                 
            Milk Cows and Production:  By State,  July 1994-95 1/               
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
        :    Milk Cows  2/   :  Milk per Cow  3/ :     Milk Production 3/       
        :---------------------------------------------------------------------  
 State  :          :         :         :         :         :         : 1995 as  
        :   1994   :  1995   :  1994   :  1995   :  1994   :  1995   :   % of   
        :          :         :         :         :         :         :   1994   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
        :    ---- 1,000 ----        Pounds          Million Pounds     Percent  
        :                                                                       
CA      :    1,237     1,254     1,745     1,725     2,159     2,163       100  
FL      :      176       162     1,155     1,135       203       184        91  
ID      :      211       234     1,610     1,580       340       370       109  
IL      :      165       162     1,300     1,330       215       215       100  
IN      :      145       144     1,340     1,300       194       187        96  
IA      :      264       262     1,270     1,305       335       342       102  
KY      :      167       163       970     1,030       162       168       104  
MD      :       92        94     1,140     1,160       105       109       104  
MI      :      328       327     1,470     1,490       482       487       101  
MN      :      605       600     1,305     1,325       790       795       101  
MO      :      198       188     1,115     1,190       221       224       101  
NM      :      170       198     1,694     1,585       288       314       109  
NY      :      715       700     1,355     1,410       969       987       102  
NC      :       91        86     1,285     1,325       117       114        97  
OH      :      294       288     1,290     1,330       379       383       101  
PA      :      640       640     1,330     1,375       851       880       103  
TN      :      156       154     1,020     1,060       159       163       103  
TX      :      402       402     1,215     1,190       488       478        98  
VT      :      157       158     1,305     1,360       205       215       105  
VA      :      129       129     1,170     1,210       151       156       103  
WA      :      262       269     1,725     1,725       452       464       103  
WI      :    1,500     1,492     1,330     1,350     1,995     2,014       101  
        :                                                                       
22 State:                                                                       
 Total  :    8,104     8,106     1,389     1,408    11,260    11,412       101  
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
1/  1995 revised.  2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh.        
3/  Excludes milk sucked by calves.                                             
                                                                                
HDR2012000160030915951500RELIABILITY STATEMENT                                  
Survey Procedures:  Primary data used to determine these estimates were         
                    obtained from a sample of producers. Individual States      
maintain a list of all known milk producers and information on the size of      
their herd.  States use all known sources of producers to ensure that their     
lists are as complete as possible.  Generally, all large producers and a        
sample of small producers are included in the survey.  Questionnaires are mailed
to producers near the end of the month to obtain data for the first             
day of the month.  Additional reports are obtained by telephone, as needed,     
to supplement the mail response.                                                
                                                                                
Estimation Procedures:  State offices prepare these estimates using survey      
                        indications, historic trends, and any available         
administrative data.  Individual State estimates are reviewed by the            
Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness.                               
                                                                                
Revision Policy:  Milk production, rate per cow, and number of cows are         
                  subject to revision the following month for monthly States or 
the following quarter for the quarterly States.  Normally, Federal Market Order 
sales are the main basis for revisions. However, data                           
for all orders are not available in time for this revision.  Estimates are      
again subject to revisions in February each year based on additional            
administrative data.  In the event that additional changes are necessary, a     
third revision is possible in February the following year.  Estimates are       
again reviewed after data from the five-year Census of Agriculture,             
conducted by the Department of Commerce, are available.  No revisions are made  
after that date.                                                                
                                                                                
Reliability:  Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in       
              the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling              
variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as     
omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and              
processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured             
directly.  They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data        
collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for        
consistency and reasonableness.                                                 
                                                                                
To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this          
report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the         
table below. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on     
past performance and is computed using the differences between first and        
final estimates.  The "Root Mean Square Error" for milk cow inventory           
estimates over the past 10 quarters is 1.1 percent.  This means that            
chances are 2 out of 3 that the final April-June estimate will not be above or  
below the current estimate of 9.52 million head by more than 1.1 percent, or    
about 105,000 head.  Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed
2.1 percent, or about 200,000 head (the 90 percent confidence level).           
                                                                                
HDR2012000160030915951500RELIABILITY TABLE                                      
                Reliability of April-June Milk Estimates 1/                     
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
             :        :              :    Difference Between    :               
             :        :              :      First and Final     :    Number of  
             :  Root  :     90%      :         Estimates  1/    :    Quarters   
    Item     :  Mean  :  Confidence  :------------------------------------------
             : Square :    Level     :        :         :       : First : First 
             :  Error :              : Average: Smallest:Largest: Above : Below 
             :        :              :        :         :       : Final : Final 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             :   - Percent -     ---------- Mil Lbs. ----------     - Number -  
             :                                                                  
Milk         :    0.6    1.1     445       204       38      426     8       2  
  Production :                                                                  
             :                  --------- 1,000 Head ----------                 
                                                                                
             :                                                                  
All Milk     :    1.1    2.1     200        97       12      188    10       0  
  Cows       :                                                                  
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/  Based on records for the past 10 April-June quarters.                       
HDR2012000160030915951500NEXT RPTG DATE, EEO STATEMENT AND SUBSCRIPTION         
The next "Milk Production" report will be released at 3 p.m. ET. on             
October 13, 1995                                                                
                                                                                
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