HDR1012000160030515961500MILK PRODUCTION                                        
Released May 15, 1996, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS),  
Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture.  For information 
on "Milk Production" call Kevin Hintzman at (202) 720-4448, office hours 8:00   
a.m. to 4:30 p.m. ET.  For assistance with general agricultural statistics,     
information about NASS, its products or services, contact the NASS Information  
Hotline at 1-800-727-9540 or E-mail: NASS@NASS.USDA.GOV.                        
                                                                                
                                                                                
                     April Milk Production Down Slightly                        
                                                                                
                                                                                
Milk production in the 22 major States during April totaled 11.5 billion pounds,
slightly below production in these same States in April 1995. March revised     
production, at 11.7 billion pounds was slightly less than March 1995.           
                                                                                
                                                                                
Production per cow in the 22 major States averaged 1,438 pounds for April,      
11 pounds above April 1995.                                                     
                                                                                
                                                                                
The number of cows on farms in the 22 major States was 7.99 million head,       
67,000 head less than April 1995 and 7,000 head less March 1996.                
                                                                                
                                                                                
During the January-March period, the 22 major States produced 33.7 billion      
pounds of milk, 86.1 percent of the U.S. production.  If the remaining 28 States
not surveyed monthly followed the same pattern as the 22 States, the U.S.       
production would be 13.3 billion pounds for April 1996.                         
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
Da 1-1 (5-96)                                                                   
                                                                                
         Milk Cows and Production:  By Quarter, United States,  1995-96         
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
        :    Milk Cows  1/   :  Milk per Cow  2/ :     Milk Production 2/       
        :---------------------------------------------------------------------- 
Quarter :          :         :         :         :         :         : 1996 as  
        :  1995    :  1996   :  1995   :  1996   :  1995   :  1996   :   % of   
        :          :         :         :         :         :         :   1995   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
        :    ---- 1,000 ----        Pounds         Million Pounds      Percent  
        :                                                                       
Jan-Mar :    9,470     9,400     4,112     4,162    38,941    39,125       100  
Apr-Jun :    9,477               4,276              40,520                      
Jul-Sep :    9,465               4,049              38,325                      
Oct-Dec :    9,432               4,014              37,857                      
        :                                                                       
Annual  :    9,461              16,451             155,644                      
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
1/  Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh.                          
2/  Excludes milk sucked by calves.                                             
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
        Milk Cows and Production:  By Month, 22 Selected States, 1995-96        
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
        :    Milk Cows  1/   :  Milk per Cow  2/ :     Milk Production 2/       
        :---------------------------------------------------------------------- 
 Month  :          :         :         :         :         :         : 1996 as  
        :   1995   :  1996   :  1995   :  1996   :  1995   :  1996   :   % of   
        :          :         :         :         :         :         :   1995   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
        :    ---- 1,000 ----        Pounds         Million Pounds      Percent  
        :                                                                       
Jan     :    8,046     8,026     1,404     1,406    11,296    11,285       100  
Feb     :    8,050     8,010     1,295     1,338    10,423    10,719       103  
Mar     :    8,061     7,998     1,453     1,459    11,709    11,671       100  
Apr     :    8,058     7,991     1,427     1,438    11,501    11,489       100  
May     :    8,056               1,484              11,959                      
Jun     :    8,066               1,421              11,465                      
Jul     :    8,062               1,414              11,397                      
Aug     :    8,062               1,375              11,086                      
Sep     :    8,061               1,331              10,729                      
Oct     :    8,050               1,364              10,978                      
Nov     :    8,043               1,320              10,616                      
Dec     :    8,034               1,380              11,088                      
        :                                                                       
Annual  :    8,054              16,668             134,247                      
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
1/  Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh.                          
2/  Excludes milk sucked by calves.                                             
             Milk Cows and Production:  By State,  April 1995-96                
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
        :    Milk Cows  1/   :  Milk per Cow  2/ :     Milk Production 2/       
        :---------------------------------------------------------------------- 
 State  :          :         :         :         :         :         : 1996 as  
        :   1995   :  1996   :  1995   :  1996   :  1995   :  1996   :   % of   
        :          :         :         :         :         :         :   1995   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
        :    ---- 1,000 ----        Pounds         Million Pounds      Percent  
        :                                                                       
CA      :    1,252     1,261     1,700     1,725     2,128     2,175       102  
FL      :      164       155     1,355     1,400       222       217        98  
ID      :      227       248     1,490     1,490       338       370       109  
IL      :      163       160     1,370     1,370       223       219        98  
IN      :      144       140     1,320     1,320       190       185        97  
IA      :      251       250     1,360     1,280       341       320        94  
KY      :      163       157     1,135     1,080       185       170        92  
MD      :       93        87     1,280     1,310       119       114        96  
MI      :      326       326     1,440     1,440       469       469       100  
MN      :      595       595     1,365     1,365       812       812       100  
MO      :      195       183     1,305     1,290       254       236        93  
NM      :      185       193     1,670     1,670       309       322       104  
NY      :      705       700     1,390     1,430       980     1,001       102  
NC      :       88        84     1,480     1,450       130       122        94  
OH      :      289       285     1,390     1,380       402       393        98  
PA      :      639       643     1,420     1,435       907       923       102  
TN      :      131       116     1,240     1,250       162       145        90  
TX      :      400       400     1,400     1,445       560       578       103  
VT      :      156       156     1,380     1,395       215       218       101  
VA      :      129       127     1,335     1,240       172       157        91  
WA      :      267       261     1,670     1,655       446       432        97  
WI      :    1,496     1,464     1,295     1,305     1,937     1,911        99  
        :                                                                       
22 State:                                                                       
 Total  :    8,058     7,991     1,427     1,438    11,501    11,489       100  
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
1/  Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh.                          
2/  Excludes milk sucked by calves.                                             
            Milk Cows and Production:  By State,  March 1995-96 1/              
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
        :    Milk Cows  2/   :  Milk per Cow  3/ :     Milk Production 3/       
        :---------------------------------------------------------------------- 
 State  :          :         :         :         :         :         : 1996 as  
        :   1995   :  1996   :  1995   :  1996   :  1995   :  1996   :   % of   
        :          :         :         :         :         :         :   1995   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
        :    ---- 1,000 ----        Pounds         Million Pounds      Percent  
        :                                                                       
CA      :    1,251     1,261     1,725     1,725     2,158     2,175       101  
FL      :      166       156     1,435     1,475       238       230        97  
ID      :      223       247     1,510     1,500       337       371       110  
IL      :      163       160     1,380     1,380       225       221        98  
IN      :      145       140     1,340     1,380       194       193        99  
IA      :      251       249     1,380     1,300       346       324        94  
KY      :      163       156     1,105     1,075       180       168        93  
MD      :       93        87     1,310     1,380       122       120        98  
MI      :      326       326     1,490     1,480       486       482        99  
MN      :      600       595     1,395     1,405       837       836       100  
MO      :      194       183     1,295     1,245       251       228        91  
NM      :      185       193     1,705     1,675       315       323       103  
NY      :      707       700     1,420     1,470     1,004     1,029       102  
NC      :       88        85     1,510     1,490       133       127        95  
OH      :      289       285     1,395     1,385       403       395        98  
PA      :      641       645     1,440     1,465       923       945       102  
TN      :      130       118     1,250     1,250       163       148        91  
TX      :      400       400     1,450     1,480       580       592       102  
VT      :      156       157     1,400     1,405       218       221       101  
VA      :      129       127     1,355     1,260       175       160        91  
WA      :      263       262     1,715     1,685       451       441        98  
WI      :    1,498     1,466     1,315     1,325     1,970     1,942        99  
        :                                                                       
22 State:                                                                       
 Total  :    8,061     7,998     1,453     1,459    11,709    11,671       100  
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
1/  1996 revised.  2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh.        
3/  Excludes milk sucked by calves.                                             
                      Reliability Statement                                     
                                                                                
                                                                                
Survey Procedures:  Primary data used to determine these estimates were         
                    obtained from a sample of producers. Individual States      
maintain a list of all known milk producers and information on the size of      
their herd.  States use all known sources of producers to ensure that their     
lists are as complete as possible.   Generally, all large producers and a       
sample of small producers are included in the survey.  Questionnaires are mailed
to producers near the end of the month to obtain data for the first             
day of the month.  Additional reports are obtained by telephone, as needed,     
to supplement the mail response.                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
Estimation Procedures:  State offices prepare these estimates using survey      
                        indications, historic trends, and any available         
administrative data.  Individual State estimates are reviewed by the            
Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness.                               
                                                                                
                                                                                
Revision Policy:  Milk production, rate per cow, and number of cows are         
                  subject to revision the following month for monthly States or 
the following quarter for the quarterly States.  Normally, Federal Market Order 
sales are the main basis for revisions. However, data for all orders are not    
available in time for this revision.  Estimates are again subject to revisions  
in February each year based on additional administrative data.  In the event    
that additional changes are necessary, a third revision is possible in February 
the following year.  Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five-year 
Census of Agriculture, conducted by the Department of Commerce, are available.  
No revisions are made after that date.                                          
                                                                                
                                                                                
Reliability:  Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in       
              the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. 
Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions,       
duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The
effects of these errors cannot be measured directly.  They are minimized through
rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful     
review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness.                 
                                                                                
To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report,  
the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the table below.    
The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance 
and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates.        
The "Root Mean Square Error" for milk cow inventory estimates over the past     
10 quarters is 1.1 percent.  This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the    
final January-March estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 
9.40 million head by more than 1.1 percent, or about 103,000 head.  Chances are 
9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 2.1 percent, or about 197,000   
head (the 90 percent confidence level).                                         
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
               Reliability of January-March Milk Estimates 1/                   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
             :        :              :    Difference Between    :               
             :        :              :      First and Final     :    Number of  
             :  Root  :     90%      :         Estimates  1/    :    Quarters   
    Item     :  Mean  :  Confidence  :------------------------------------------
             : Square :    Level     :        :         :       : First : First 
             :  Error :              : Average: Smallest:Largest: Above : Below 
             :        :              :        :         :       : Final : Final 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             :   - Percent -     ---------- Mil Lbs. ----------     - Number -  
             :                                                                  
Milk         :    0.6    1.0     391       180       30      315     8       2  
  Production :                                                                  
             :                  --------- 1,000 Head ----------                 
                                                                                
             :                                                                  
All Milk     :    1.1    2.1     197        99        5      187    10       0  
  Cows       :                                                                  
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/  Based on records for the past 10 January-March quarters.                    
The next "Milk Production" report will be released at 3 p.m. ET on              
June 13, 1996.                                                                  
                                                                                
                                                                                
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