HDR1012000160031116951500MILK PRODUCTION                                        
HDR2012000160031116951500MILK PRODUCTION HIGHLIGHTS                             
Released November 16, 1995, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service     
(NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture.  For     
information on "Milk Production" call Kevin Hintzman at (202) 720-4448, office  
hours 8:00 a.m. to 4:30 p.m. ET.  For assistance with general agricultural      
statistics, information about NASS, its products or services, contact the NASS  
Information Hotline at 1-800-727-9540 or E-mail:  NASS@AG.GOV.                  
                                                                                
                     October Milk Production Up 1 Percent                       
                                                                                
Milk production in the 22 major States during October totaled 11.0 billion      
pounds, 1 percent above production in these same States in October 1994.        
September revised production, at 10.8 billion pounds was 1 percent more than    
September 1994.                                                                 
                                                                                
Production per cow in the 22 major States averaged 1,361 pounds for October, 7  
pounds above October 1994.                                                      
                                                                                
The number of cows on farms in the 22 major States was 8.11 million head,       
up 3,000 head from October 1994 but down 2,000 head from September 1995.        
                                                                                
During the July-September period, the 22 major States produced 33.3 billion     
pounds of milk, 86.6 percent of the U.S. production. If the remaining 28        
States not surveyed monthly followed the same pattern as the 22 States, the     
U.S. production would be 12.7 billion pounds for October 1995.                  
                                                                                
Da 1-1 (11-95)                                                                  
HDR2012000160031116951500MLK COWS & PRD: BY QTR,US 94-95                        
          Milk Cows and Production:  By Quarter, United States, 1994-95         
------------------------------------------------------------------------------  
        :    Milk Cows  1/   :  Milk per Cow  2/ :     Milk Production 2/       
        :---------------------------------------------------------------------  
Quarter :          :         :         :         :         :         : 1995 as  
        :   1994   :  1995   :  1994   :  1995   :  1994   :  1995   :   % of   
        :          :         :         :         :         :         :   1994   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------  
        :    ---- 1,000 ----        Pounds         Million Pounds      Percent  
        :                                                                       
Jan-Mar :    9,506     9,517     3,951     4,093    37,560    38,950       104  
Apr-Jun :    9,530     9,516     4,188     4,254    39,916    40,484       101  
Jul-Sep :    9,539     9,518     4,007     4,040    38,217    38,453       101  
Oct-Dec :    9,524               3,983              37,933                      
        :                                                                       
Annual  :    9,525              16,129             153,626                      
------------------------------------------------------------------------------  
1/  Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh.                          
2/  Excludes milk sucked by calves.                                             
                                                                                
HDR2012000160031116951500MLK COWS & PRD: BY MO. 22 SELE STS , 94-95             
         Milk Cows and Production:  By Month, 22 Selected States, 1994-95       
------------------------------------------------------------------------------  
        :    Milk Cows  1/   :  Milk per Cow  2/ :     Milk Production 2/       
        :---------------------------------------------------------------------  
 Month  :          :         :         :         :         :         : 1995 as  
        :   1994   :  1995   :  1994   :  1995   :  1994   :  1995   :   % of   
        :          :         :         :         :         :         :   1994   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------  
        :    ---- 1,000 ----        Pounds         Million Pounds      Percent  
        :                                                                       
Jan     :    8,092     8,090     1,343     1,394    10,870    11,280       104  
Feb     :    8,082     8,088     1,236     1,291     9,990    10,441       105  
Mar     :    8,074     8,103     1,401     1,444    11,315    11,698       103  
Apr     :    8,080     8,097     1,396     1,417    11,282    11,477       102  
May     :    8,097     8,093     1,457     1,475    11,799    11,936       101  
Jun     :    8,107     8,104     1,388     1,414    11,249    11,461       102  
Jul     :    8,104     8,106     1,389     1,408    11,260    11,412       101  
Aug     :    8,108     8,109     1,369     1,372    11,102    11,128       100  
Sep     :    8,109     8,109     1,318     1,328    10,689    10,766       101  
Oct     :    8,104     8,107     1,354     1,361    10,970    11,034       101  
Nov     :    8,098               1,312              10,624                      
Dec     :    8,094               1,370              11,090                      
        :                                                                       
Annual  :    8,096              16,334             132,240                      
------------------------------------------------------------------------------  
-                                                                               
1/  Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh.                          
2/  Excludes milk sucked by calves.                                             
                                                                                
HDR2012000160031116951500MLK COWS & PRD: BY ST. OCT 94-95                       
            Milk Cows and Production:  By State,  October 1994-95               
------------------------------------------------------------------------------  
        :    Milk Cows  1/   :  Milk per Cow  2/ :     Milk Production 2/       
        :---------------------------------------------------------------------  
 State  :          :         :         :         :         :         : 1995 as  
        :   1994   :  1995   :  1994   :  1995   :  1994   :  1995   :   % of   
        :          :         :         :         :         :         :   1994   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------  
        :    ---- 1,000 ----        Pounds         Million Pounds      Percent  
        :                                                                       
CA      :    1,243     1,257     1,725     1,680     2,144     2,112        99  
FL      :      173       160     1,085     1,075       188       172        91  
ID      :      216       240     1,540     1,530       333       367       110  
IL      :      164       162     1,270     1,255       208       203        98  
IN      :      145       143     1,260     1,280       183       183       100  
IA      :      266       262     1,265     1,275       336       334        99  
KY      :      165       161     1,020     1,010       168       163        97  
MD      :       91        92     1,210     1,195       110       110       100  
MI      :      326       326     1,415     1,410       461       460       100  
MN      :      605       600     1,230     1,260       744       756       102  
MO      :      197       189     1,130     1,110       223       210        94  
NM      :      172       197     1,657     1,535       285       302       106  
NY      :      713       702     1,300     1,360       927       955       103  
NC      :       89        86     1,320     1,300       117       112        96  
OH      :      291       287     1,300     1,290       378       370        98  
PA      :      639       647     1,330     1,375       850       890       105  
TN      :      160       153     1,010     1,040       162       159        98  
TX      :      401       401     1,220     1,195       489       479        98  
VT      :      157       158     1,290     1,350       203       213       105  
VA      :      129       128     1,260     1,265       163       162        99  
WA      :      264       268     1,665     1,640       440       440       100  
WI      :    1,498     1,488     1,240     1,265     1,858     1,882       101  
        :                                                                       
22 State:                                                                       
 Total  :    8,104     8,107     1,354     1,361    10,970    11,034       101  
------------------------------------------------------------------------------  
1/  Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh.                          
2/  Excludes milk sucked by calves.                                             
HDR2012000160031116951500MLK COWS & PRD: BY ST. SEP 94-95                       
           Milk Cows and Production:  By State, September 1994-95 1/            
------------------------------------------------------------------------------  
        :    Milk Cows  2/   :  Milk per Cow  3/ :     Milk Production 3/       
        :---------------------------------------------------------------------  
 State  :          :         :         :         :         :         : 1995 as  
        :   1994   :  1995   :  1994   :  1995   :  1994   :  1995   :   % of   
        :          :         :         :         :         :         :   1994   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------  
        :    ---- 1,000 ----        Pounds         Million Pounds      Percent  
        :                                                                       
CA      :    1,241     1,256     1,685     1,645     2,091     2,066        99  
FL      :      175       162     1,010       995       177       161        91  
ID      :      215       239     1,520     1,500       327       359       110  
IL      :      164       162     1,270     1,260       208       204        98  
IN      :      145       143     1,250     1,250       181       179        99  
IA      :      266       262     1,230     1,250       327       328       100  
KY      :      167       161       980       980       164       158        96  
MD      :       91        93     1,130     1,110       103       103       100  
MI      :      327       326     1,380     1,390       451       453       100  
MN      :      605       600     1,190     1,220       720       732       102  
MO      :      196       189     1,100     1,065       216       201        93  
NM      :      172       197     1,599     1,475       275       291       106  
NY      :      715       702     1,285     1,350       919       948       103  
NC      :       90        86     1,245     1,220       112       105        94  
OH      :      292       287     1,260     1,255       368       360        98  
PA      :      641       646     1,260     1,330       808       859       106  
TN      :      159       153     1,000     1,030       159       158        99  
TX      :      402       401     1,145     1,095       460       439        95  
VT      :      157       158     1,265     1,330       199       210       106  
VA      :      129       129     1,220     1,200       157       155        99  
WA      :      262       268     1,650     1,625       432       436       101  
WI      :    1,498     1,489     1,225     1,250     1,835     1,861       101  
        :                                                                       
22 State:                                                                       
 Total  :    8,109     8,109     1,318     1,328    10,689    10,766       101  
------------------------------------------------------------------------------  
1/  1995 revised.  2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh.        
3/  Excludes milk sucked by calves.                                             
                                                                                
HDR2012000160031116951500RELIABILITY STATEMENT                                  
Survey Procedures:  Primary data used to determine these estimates were         
                    obtained from a sample of producers. Individual States      
maintain a list of all known milk producers and information on the size of      
their herd.  States use all known sources of producers to ensure that their     
lists are as complete as possible.  Generally, all large producers and a        
sample of small producers are included in the survey.  Questionnaires are       
mailed to producers near the end of the month to obtain data for the first      
day of the month.  Additional reports are obtained by telephone, as needed,     
to supplement the mail response.                                                
                                                                                
Estimation Procedures:  State offices prepare these estimates using survey      
                        indications, historic trends, and any available         
administrative data.  Individual State estimates are reviewed by the            
Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness.                               
                                                                                
Revision Policy:  Milk production, rate per cow, and number of cows are         
                  subject to revision the following month for monthly States    
or the following quarter for the quarterly States.  Normally, Federal Market    
Order sales are the main basis for revisions. However, data for all orders are  
not available in time for this revision.  Estimates are again subject to        
revisions in February each year based on additional administrative data.  In    
the event that additional changes are necessary, a third revision is possible   
in February the following year. Estimates are again reviewed after data from    
the five-year Census of Agriculture, conducted by the Department of Commerce,   
are available.  No revisions are made after that date.                          
                                                                                
Reliability:  Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in       
              the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling              
variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as     
omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing   
the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly.  They are    
minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and     
through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonable-   
ness.                                                                           
                                                                                
To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report,  
the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the table below.    
The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on, past            
performance and is computed using the differences between first and             
final estimates.  The "Root Mean Square Error" for milk cow inventory           
estimates over the past 10 quarters is 1.3 percent.  This means that chances    
are 2 out of 3 that the final July-September estimate will not be above or      
below the current estimate of 9.52 million head by more than 1.3 percent, or    
about 124,000 head.  Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not       
exceed 2.3 percent, or about 219,000 head (the 90 percent confidence level).    
                                                                                
HDR2012000160031116951500RELIABILITY TABLE                                      
                Reliability of July-September Milk Estimates 1/                 
------------------------------------------------------------------------------  
             :        :              :    Difference Between    :               
             :        :              :      First and Final     :    Number of  
             :  Root  :     90%      :         Estimates  1/    :    Quarters   
    Item     :  Mean  :  Confidence  :------------------------------------------
             : Square :    Level     :        :         :       : First : First 
             :  Error :              : Average: Smallest:Largest: Above : Below 
             :        :              :        :         :       : Final : Final 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             :   - Percent -     ---------- Mil Lbs. ----------     - Number -  
             :                                                                  
Milk         :    0.9    1.6     616       270       15      538    10       0  
  Production :                                                                  
             :                  --------- 1,000 Head ----------                 
                                                                                
             :                                                                  
All Milk     :    1.3    2.3     219       113       15      179    10       0  
  Cows       :                                                                  
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/  Based on records for the past 10 July-September quarters.                   
HDR2012000160031116951500NXT RPTG DATE, EEO STMT, & SUBSCRIPTION                
The next "Milk Production" report will be released at 3 p.m. ET on              
December 15, 1995.                                                              
                                                                                
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