HDR1012000160030913961500MILK PRODUCTION                                        
Milk                                                                            
Production                                                                      
                                                                                
National                                                                        
Agricultural                                                                    
Statistics                                                                      
Service                                                                         
                                                                                
USDA                                                                            
Washington, D.C.                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
Released September 13, 1996, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service    
(NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture.  For     
information on "Milk Production" call Kevin Hintzman at (202) 720-4448, office  
hours 8:00 a.m. to 4:30 p.m. ET.  For assistance with general agricultural      
statistics, information about NASS, its products or services, contact the NASS  
Information Hotline at 1-800-727-9540 or E-mail: NASS@NASS.USDA.GOV.  The "Milk 
Production" U.S. Summary is available on AutoFax, (202) 720-2000, report 5200.  
See back page.                                                                  
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
               August Milk Production Down 1 Percent                            
                                                                                
Milk production in the 22 major States during August totaled 10.9 billion       
pounds, 1 percent below production in these same States in August 1995. July    
revised production, at 11.1 billion pounds was 2 percent less than July 1995. On
a daily basis, 1996 milk production has been below 1995 levels every month this 
year.                                                                           
                                                                                
                                                                                
Production per cow in the 22 major States averaged 1,371 pounds for August,     
4 pounds below August 1995.  This is the fourth month in a row that the rate has
been below a year ago.                                                          
                                                                                
                                                                                
The number of cows on farms in the 22 major States was 7.97 million head,       
94,000 head less than August 1995 and 9,000 head less than July 1996.  This is  
the twelfth consecutive month of decline.                                       
                                                                                
                                                                                
During the April-June period, the 22 major States produced 34.3 billion pounds  
of milk, 86.2 percent of the U.S. production.  If the remaining 28 States not   
surveyed monthly followed the same pattern as the 22 States, the U.S. production
would be 12.7 billion pounds for August 1996.                                   
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                              ********                                          
                                                                                
                              Note:                                             
                                                                                
                                                                                
NASS is planning to change the States that are included in the monthly milk     
production estimating program starting January 1997.  The last major change was 
in 1986.  We plan to drop Maryland, North Carolina, and Tennessee while adding  
Arizona.  Please see table on page 5 for production rankings.                   
                                                                                
                                                                                
Historic monthly estimates have been created for Arizona back to 1994.          
Therefore, data users will have a comparable data set for 1994, 1995, and 1996  
for the 20 State monthly total.  The 20 States in the monthly estimating program
account for 85 percent of the U.S. milk production.                             
                                                                                
        Milk Cows and Production:  By Quarter, United States,  1995-96          
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
        :    Milk Cows  1/   :  Milk per Cow  2/ :     Milk Production 2/       
        :---------------------------------------------------------------------- 
Quarter :          :         :         :         :         :         : 1996 as  
        :   1995   :  1996   :  1995   :  1996   :  1995   :  1996   :   % of   
        :          :         :         :         :         :         :   1995   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
        :    ---- 1,000 ----         Pounds          Million Pounds    Percent  
        :                                                                       
Jan-Mar :    9,470     9,402     4,112     4,160    38,941    39,111       100  
Apr-Jun :    9,477     9,379     4,276     4,238    40,520    39,751        98  
Jul-Sep :    9,465               4,049              38,325                      
Oct-Dec :    9,432               4,014              37,857                      
        :                                                                       
Annual  :    9,461              16,451             155,644                      
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
1/  Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh.                          
2/  Excludes milk sucked by calves.                                             
                                                                                
                                                                                
        Milk Cows and Production:  By Month, 22 Selected States, 1995-96        
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
        :    Milk Cows  1/   :  Milk per Cow  2/ :     Milk Production 2/       
        :---------------------------------------------------------------------- 
 Month  :          :         :         :         :         :         : 1996 as  
        :   1995   :  1996   :  1995   :  1996   :  1995   :  1996   :   % of   
        :          :         :         :         :         :         :   1995   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
        :    ---- 1,000 ----         Pounds          Million Pounds    Percent  
        :                                                                       
Jan     :    8,046     8,026     1,404     1,406    11,296    11,285       100  
Feb     :    8,050     8,010     1,295     1,338    10,423    10,719       103  
Mar     :    8,061     7,998     1,453     1,459    11,709    11,671       100  
Apr     :    8,058     7,988     1,427     1,434    11,501    11,451       100  
May     :    8,056     7,987     1,484     1,470    11,959    11,740        98  
Jun     :    8,066     7,984     1,421     1,387    11,465    11,075        97  
Jul     :    8,062     7,977     1,414     1,397    11,397    11,142        98  
Aug     :    8,062     7,968     1,375     1,371    11,086    10,926        99  
Sep     :    8,061               1,331              10,729                      
Oct     :    8,050               1,364              10,978                      
Nov     :    8,043               1,320              10,616                      
Dec     :    8,034               1,380              11,088                      
        :                                                                       
Annual  :    8,054              16,668             134,247                      
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
1/  Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh.                          
2/  Excludes milk sucked by calves.                                             
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
              Milk Cows and Production:  By State,  August 1995-96              
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
        :    Milk Cows  1/   :  Milk per Cow  2/ :     Milk Production 2/       
        :---------------------------------------------------------------------- 
 State  :          :         :         :         :         :         : 1996 as  
        :  1995    :  1996   :  1995   :  1996   :  1995   :  1996   :   % of   
        :          :         :         :         :         :         :   1995   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
        :    ---- 1,000 ----         Pounds          Million Pounds    Percent  
        :                                                                       
CA      :    1,255     1,263     1,715     1,695     2,152     2,141        99  
FL      :      162       156     1,070     1,100       173       172        99  
ID      :      237       259     1,580     1,630       374       422       113  
IL      :      162       158     1,270     1,300       206       205       100  
IN      :      143       140     1,260     1,260       180       176        98  
IA      :      250       250     1,350     1,275       338       319        94  
KY      :      161       151       995       985       160       149        93  
MD      :       92        86     1,120     1,255       103       108       105  
MI      :      326       327     1,425     1,405       465       459        99  
MN      :      600       600     1,270     1,280       762       768       101  
MO      :      187       175     1,105     1,085       207       190        92  
NM      :      198       196     1,545     1,565       306       307       100  
NY      :      700       703     1,395     1,370       977       963        99  
NC      :       86        81     1,245     1,245       107       101        94  
OH      :      289       285     1,275     1,240       368       353        96  
PA      :      643       641     1,345     1,360       865       872       101  
TN      :      124       112     1,050     1,060       130       119        92  
TX      :      402       397     1,115     1,065       448       423        94  
VT      :      158       158     1,355     1,340       214       212        99  
VA      :      129       126     1,195     1,150       154       145        94  
WA      :      270       264     1,715     1,730       463       457        99  
WI      :    1,488     1,440     1,300     1,295     1,934     1,865        96  
        :                                                                       
22 State:                                                                       
 Total  :    8,062     7,968     1,375     1,371    11,086    10,926        99  
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
1/  Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh.                          
2/  Excludes milk sucked by calves.                                             
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
       Milk Cows and Production:  By State,  July 1995-96 1/                    
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
        :    Milk Cows  2/   :  Milk per Cow  3/ :     Milk Production 3/       
        :---------------------------------------------------------------------- 
 State  :          :         :         :         :         :         : 1996 as  
        :   1995   :  1996   :  1995   :  1996   :  1995   :  1996   :   % of   
        :          :         :         :         :         :         :   1995   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
        :    ---- 1,000 ----         Pounds          Million Pounds    Percent  
        :                                                                       
CA      :    1,254     1,262     1,740     1,730     2,182     2,183       100  
FL      :      162       156     1,135     1,145       184       179        97  
ID      :      234       257     1,590     1,640       372       421       113  
IL      :      162       159     1,330     1,320       215       210        98  
IN      :      144       140     1,300     1,270       187       178        95  
IA      :      251       250     1,365     1,290       343       323        94  
KY      :      163       151     1,035       965       169       146        86  
MD      :       92        86     1,150     1,255       106       108       102  
MI      :      326       327     1,475     1,410       481       461        96  
MN      :      600       600     1,325     1,325       795       795       100  
MO      :      189       177     1,130     1,090       214       193        90  
NM      :      198       196     1,585     1,605       314       315       100  
NY      :      700       703     1,415     1,390       991       977        99  
NC      :       86        82     1,325     1,245       114       102        89  
OH      :      289       285     1,340     1,295       387       369        95  
PA      :      640       643     1,375     1,375       880       884       100  
TN      :      124       113     1,110     1,060       138       120        87  
TX      :      402       399     1,190     1,140       478       455        95  
VT      :      158       157     1,360     1,340       215       210        98  
VA      :      129       126     1,210     1,125       156       142        91  
WA      :      269       263     1,725     1,735       464       456        98  
WI      :    1,490     1,445     1,350     1,325     2,012     1,915        95  
        :                                                                       
22 State:                                                                       
 Total  :    8,062     7,977     1,414     1,397    11,397    11,142        98  
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
1/  1996 revised.  2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh.        
3/  Excludes milk sucked by calves.                                             
                        1995 Milk Production Rankings                           
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
       :       :Milk Production:  % of U.S.  : Accumulated : Current :Proposed  
  Rank : State :      1995     : Production  :    % of     : Monthly : Monthly  
       :       :               :             : Production  : States  : States   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
                 Million Pounds           -- Percent --                         
     1    CA            25,327          16.3          16.3      x         x     
     2    WI            22,942          14.7          31.0      x         x     
     3    NY            11,643           7.5          38.5      x         x     
     4    PA            10,600           6.8          45.3      x         x     
     5    MN             9,442           6.1          51.4      x         x     
     6    TX             6,113           3.9          55.3      x         x     
     7    MI             5,565           3.6          58.9      x         x     
     8    WA             5,302           3.4          62.3      x         x     
     9    OH             4,600           3.0          65.2      x         x     
    10    ID             4,210           2.7          67.9      x         x     
    11    IA             4,038           2.6          70.5      x         x     
    12    NM             3,623           2.3          72.9      x         x     
    13    MO             2,690           1.7          74.6      x         x     
    14    IL             2,545           1.6          76.2      x         x     
    15    VT             2,538           1.6          77.9      x         x     
    16    FL             2,381           1.5          79.4      x         x     
    17    AZ             2,230           1.4          80.8                x     
    18    IN             2,214           1.4          82.2      x         x     
    19    KY             2,020           1.3          83.5      x         x     
    20    VA             1,950           1.3          84.8      x         x     
    21    TN             1,745           1.1          85.9      x               
    22    OR             1,677           1.1          87.0                      
    23    SD             1,591           1.0          88.0                      
    24    GA             1,555           1.0          89.0                      
    25    CO             1,551           1.0          90.0                      
    26    UT             1,473           0.9          91.0                      
    27    NC             1,417           0.9          91.9      x               
    28    MD             1,342           0.9          92.7      x               
    29    OK             1,303           0.8          93.6                      
    30    KS             1,180           0.8          94.3                      
    31    NE             1,095           0.7          95.0                      
    32    LA               905           0.6          95.6                      
    33    ND               838           0.5          96.1                      
    34    AR               732           0.5          96.6                      
    35    MS               710           0.5          97.1                      
    36    ME               641           0.4          97.5                      
    37    CT               526           0.3          97.8                      
    38    AL               482           0.3          98.1                      
    39    MA               448           0.3          98.4                      
    40    NV               425           0.3          98.7                      
    41    SC               391           0.3          98.9                      
    42    NH               326           0.2          99.2                      
    43    NJ               320           0.2          99.4                      
    44    MT               315           0.2          99.6                      
    45    WV               266           0.2          99.7                      
    46    DE               146           0.1          99.8                      
    47    HI               142           0.1          99.9                      
    48    WY              84.6           0.1         100.0                      
    49    RI              32.5           0.0         100.0                      
    50    AK              11.9           0.0         100.0                      
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 Total    US           155,644                                                  
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                                
                      Reliability Statement                                     
                                                                                
Survey Procedures:  Primary data used to determine these estimates were         
                    obtained from a sample of producers.  Individual States     
maintain a list of all known milk producers and information on the size of their
herd.  States use all known sources of producers to ensure that their lists are 
as complete as possible. Generally, all large producers and a sample of small   
producers are included in the survey.  Questionnaires are mailed to producers   
near the end of the month to obtain data for the first day of the month.        
Additional reports are obtained by telephone, as needed, to supplement the mail 
response.                                                                       
                                                                                
                                                                                
Estimation Procedures:  State offices prepare these estimates using survey      
                        indications, historic trends, and any available         
 administrative data. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the            
Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness.                               
                                                                                
                                                                                
Revision Policy:  Milk production, rate per cow, and number of cows are         
                  subject to revision the following month for monthly States or 
the following quarter for the quarterly States.  Normally, Federal Market Order 
sales are the main basis for revisions. However, data for all orders are not    
available in time for this revision.  Estimates are again subject to revisions  
in February each year based on additional administrative data.  In the event    
that additional changes are necessary, a third revision is possible in February 
the following year.  Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five-year 
Census of Agriculture, conducted by the Department of Commerce, are available.  
No revisions are made after that date.                                          
                                                                                
                                                                                
Reliability:  Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in the   
              sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability.     
Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions,       
duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The
effects of these errors cannot be measured directly.  They are minimized through
rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful     
review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness.                 
                                                                                
To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report,  
the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the table below.    
The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance 
and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates.  The   
"Root Mean Square Error" for milk cow inventory estimates over the past 10      
quarters is 1.2 percent.  This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final 
April-June estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 9.38     
million head by more than 1.2 percent, or about 113,000 head.  Chances are 9 out
of 10 that the difference will not exceed 2.1 percent, or about 197,000 head    
(the 90 percent confidence level).                                              
                Reliability of April-June Milk Estimates 1/                     
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
             :        :              :    Difference Between    :               
             :        :              :      First and Final     :    Number of  
             :  Root  :     90%      :         Estimates  1/    :    Quarters   
    Item     :  Mean  :  Confidence  :------------------------------------------
             : Square :    Level     :        :         :       : First : First 
             :  Error :              : Average: Smallest:Largest: Above : Below 
             :        :              :        :         :       : Final : Final 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             :   - Percent -     ---------- Mil Lbs. ----------     - Number -  
             :                                                                  
Milk         :   0.6     1.1     438     191       32      426      8       2   
  Production :                                                                  
             :                  --------- 1,000 Head ----------                 
                                                                                
             :                                                                  
All Milk     :   1.2     2.1     197     100       12      188     10       0   
  Cows       :                                                                  
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/  Based on records for the past 10 April-June quarters.                       
The next "Milk Production" report will be released at 3 P.M. ET on              
October 15, 1996.                                                               
                                                                                
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