Da 1-1  (1-99)
 
 
 
Milk
Production
 
National
Agricultural
Statistics
Service
 
 
 
 
USDA
Washington, D.C.
 
 
Released January 15, 1999, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service
(NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture.  For
information on "Milk Production" call James Hand at 202-690-3236, office hours
7:00 a.m. to 4:30 p.m. ET.
 
 
 
           December Milk Production Up 3.0 Percent
 
Milk production in the 20 major States during December totaled 11.4 billion
pounds, up 3.0 percent from production in these same States in December 1997.
November revised production, at 10.9 billion pounds was up 2.7  percent from
November 1997.
 
 
Production per cow in the 20 major States averaged 1,478 pounds for December,
40 pounds above December 1997.
 
 
The number of cows on farms in the 20 major States was 7.74 million head,
12,000 head more than December 1997 but 1,000 head less than November 1998.
 
 
          October-December Milk Production Up 2.4 Percent
 
The quarterly production of milk for the U.S. was 39.1 billion pounds, 2.4
percent above the October-December period last year.   The average number of
milk cows in the U.S. during the October-December quarter was 9.19 million
head, 12,000 head less  than the same period last year.
 
 
 
 
          Milk Cows and Production:  By Quarter, United States, 1997-98
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          :   Milk Cows 1/    :  Milk Per Cow 2/  :     Milk Production 2/
          :---------------------------------------------------------------------
  Quarter :         :         :         :         :         :         : Change
          :  1997   :  1998   :  1997   :  1998   :  1997   :  1998   :  From
          :         :         :         :         :         :         :  1997
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          :     1,000 Head      ---- Pounds ----      Million Pounds    Percent
          :
Jan-Mar   :  9,295     9,186     4,192     4,268     38,961    39,209     0.6
Apr-Jun   :  9,280     9,205     4,384     4,447     40,683    40,931     0.6
Jul-Sep   :  9,251     9,203     4,195     4,204     38,805    38,685    -0.3
Oct-Dec   :  9,206     9,194     4,144     4,248     38,153    39,058     2.4
          :
Annual    :  9,258     9,198    16,915    17,165    156,602   157,883     0.8
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/  Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh.
2/  Excludes milk sucked by calves.
 
 
        Milk Cows and Production:  By Month, 20 Selected States, 1997-98
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          :   Milk Cows 1/    :  Milk Per Cow 2/  :     Milk Production 2/
          :---------------------------------------------------------------------
   Month  :         :         :         :         :         :         : Change
          :  1997   :  1998   :  1997   :  1998   :  1997   :  1998   :  From
          :         :         :         :         :         :         :  1997
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          :     1,000 Head      ---- Pounds ----      Million Pounds    Percent
          :
Jan       :  7,787     7,730     1,433     1,464     11,158    11,316     1.4
Feb       :  7,774     7,726     1,328     1,351     10,321    10,434     1.1
Mar       :  7,763     7,725     1,500     1,517     11,641    11,722     0.7
Apr       :  7,763     7,735     1,474     1,499     11,446    11,591     1.3
May       :  7,765     7,750     1,529     1,557     11,869    12,067     1.7
Jun       :  7,765     7,753     1,471     1,476     11,419    11,446     0.2
Jul       :  7,765     7,750     1,473     1,464     11,437    11,345    -0.8
Aug       :  7,757     7,753     1,446     1,439     11,213    11,160    -0.5
Sep       :  7,752     7,749     1,377     1,382     10,671    10,706     0.3
Oct       :  7,750     7,746     1,416     1,441     10,977    11,164     1.7
Nov       :  7,737     7,745     1,369     1,405     10,591    10,881     2.7
Dec       :  7,732     7,744     1,438     1,478     11,118    11,448     3.0
          :
Annual    :  7,759     7,742    17,252    17,474    133,861   135,280     1.1
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/  Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh.
2/  Excludes milk sucked by calves.
 
 
               Estimated Milk Production:  United States, 1997-98
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
            :             By Month             :           Cumulative
            :-------------------------------------------------------------------
    Month   :         :           :   Change   :         :         :   Change
            :  1997   :   1998    :    From    :  1997   :  1998   :    From
            :         :           :    1997    :         :         :    1997
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
            :   Million Pounds       Percent       Million Pounds     Percent
            :
Jan         : 13,126     13,256         1.0       13,126    13,256      1.0
Feb         : 12,141     12,222         0.7       25,267    25,478      0.8
Mar         : 13,694     13,731         0.3       38,961    39,209      0.6
Apr         : 13,406     13,515         0.8       52,367    52,724      0.7
May         : 13,902     14,070         1.2       66,269    66,794      0.8
Jun         : 13,375     13,346        -0.2       79,644    80,140      0.6
Jul         : 13,319     13,215        -0.8       92,963    93,355      0.4
Aug         : 13,059     13,000        -0.5      106,022   106,355      0.3
Sep         : 12,427     12,470         0.3      118,449   118,825      0.3
Oct         : 12,814     13,019         1.6      131,263   131,844      0.4
Nov         : 12,362     12,689         2.6      143,625   144,533      0.6
Dec         : 12,977     13,350         2.9      156,602   157,883      0.8
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 
 
 
 
              Milk Cows and Production:  By State, December 1997-98
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          :   Milk Cows 1/    :  Milk Per Cow 2/  :     Milk Production 2/
          :---------------------------------------------------------------------
   Month  :         :         :         :         :         :         : Change
          :  1997   :  1998   :  1997   :  1998   :  1997   :  1998   :  From
          :         :         :         :         :         :         :  1997
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          :     1,000 Head       ---- Pounds ---     Million Pounds     Percent
          :
AZ        :    130       132     1,710     1,795       222       237      6.8
CA        :  1,348     1,397     1,710     1,665     2,305     2,326      0.9
FL        :    160       157     1,315     1,260       210       198     -5.7
ID        :    280       301     1,610     1,650       451       497     10.2
IL        :    145       139     1,310     1,390       190       193      1.6
IN        :    140       142     1,330     1,370       186       195      4.8
IA        :    240       240     1,420     1,490       341       358      5.0
KY        :    140       130     1,020     1,040       143       135     -5.6
MI        :    299       299     1,480     1,510       443       451      1.8
MN        :    570       550     1,340     1,450       764       798      4.5
MO        :    162       164     1,165     1,210       189       198      4.8
NM        :    208       218     1,625     1,675       338       365      8.0
NY        :    700       702     1,360     1,400       952       983      3.3
OH        :    272       265     1,320     1,380       359       366      1.9
PA        :    638       629     1,430     1,450       912       912
TX        :    380       365     1,245     1,305       473       476      0.6
VT        :    158       162     1,385     1,400       219       227      3.7
VA        :    120       121     1,340     1,265       161       153     -5.0
WA        :    260       261     1,650     1,715       429       448      4.4
WI        :  1,382     1,370     1,325     1,410     1,831     1,932      5.5
          :
20-State  :
 Total    :  7,732     7,744     1,438     1,478    11,118    11,448      3.0
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/  Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh.
2/  Excludes milk sucked by calves.
 
 
 
 
            Milk Cows and Production:  By State, November 1997-98 1/
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          :   Milk Cows 2/    :  Milk per Cow 3/  :     Milk Production 3/
          :---------------------------------------------------------------------
   State  :         :         :         :         :         :         : Change
          :  1997   :  1998   :  1997   :  1998   :  1997   :  1998   :  From
          :         :         :         :         :         :         :  1997
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          :     1,000 Head       ---- Pounds ---     Million Pounds     Percent
          :
AZ        :    130       132     1,600     1,675       208       221      6.3
CA        :  1,343     1,394     1,685     1,640     2,263     2,286      1.0
FL        :    159       158     1,165     1,115       185       176     -4.9
ID        :    280       300     1,550     1,600       434       480     10.6
IL        :    145       139     1,250     1,320       181       183      1.1
IN        :    140       142     1,250     1,285       175       182      4.0
IA        :    241       240     1,340     1,400       323       336      4.0
KY        :    141       131       970       980       137       128     -6.6
MI        :    301       298     1,415     1,460       426       435      2.1
MN        :    570       555     1,230     1,330       701       738      5.3
MO        :    164       164     1,090     1,140       179       187      4.5
NM        :    206       218     1,590     1,610       328       351      7.0
NY        :    699       702     1,290     1,310       902       920      2.0
OH        :    274       266     1,260     1,305       345       347      0.6
PA        :    640       631     1,350     1,380       864       871      0.8
TX        :    380       366     1,155     1,195       439       437     -0.5
VT        :    159       161     1,305     1,330       207       214      3.4
VA        :    120       120     1,260     1,215       151       146     -3.3
WA        :    260       260     1,585     1,655       412       430      4.4
WI        :  1,385     1,368     1,250     1,325     1,731     1,813      4.7
          :
20-State  :
 Total    :  7,737     7,745     1,369     1,405    10,591    10,881      2.7
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/  1998 revised.
2/  Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh.
3/  Excludes milk sucked by calves.
 
 
 
 
             Milk Cows and Production:  By State and United States,
                         Revised July-September, 1997-98
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          :    Jul-Sep Milk Cows 1/     : Jul-Sep Milk Production 2/  : Change
   State  :-----------------------------------------------------------:  From
          :     1997     :     1998     :     1997     :     1998     :  1997
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          :   ----- 1,000 Head -----       ---- Million Pounds ----     Percent
          :
AL        :      31             27             88             82          -6.8
AK        :       0.9            0.9            3.96           3.63       -8.3
AZ        :     128            132            579            569          -1.7
AR        :      53             52            154            166           7.8
CA        :   1,332          1,383          7,031          6,763          -3.8
CO        :      84             83            420            429           2.1
CT        :      30             30            125            126           0.8
DE        :      10.0           11.0           38.0           44.7        17.6
FL        :     160            159            513            504          -1.8
GA        :      96             93            324            309          -4.6
HI        :       8.9            8.7           29.9           32.9        10.0
ID        :     276            295          1,377          1,491           8.3
IL        :     146            141            572            540          -5.6
IN        :     140            140            547            547
IA        :     243            240          1,001            945          -5.6
KS        :      81             82            300            305           1.7
KY        :     144            135            437            405          -7.3
LA        :      76             68            170            156          -8.2
ME        :      40             41            169            172           1.8
MD        :      86             86            326            351           7.7
MA        :      26             26            109            106          -2.8
MI        :     307            301          1,357          1,346          -0.8
MN        :     580            563          2,242          2,231          -0.5
MS        :      47             41            135            121         -10.4
MO        :     166            160            558            544          -2.5
MT        :      19             18             75             72          -4.0
NE        :      69             71            260            280           7.7
NV        :      26             26            120            125           4.2
NH        :      19             19             81             77          -4.9
NJ        :      20             19             73             72          -1.4
NM        :     203            218            998          1,104          10.6
NY        :     698            701          2,912          2,958           1.6
NC        :      75             73            295            284          -3.7
ND        :      53             50            172            174           1.2
OH        :     280            271          1,088          1,099           1.0
OK        :      96             94            310            296          -4.5
OR        :      89             89            413            418           1.2
PA        :     639            635          2,655          2,692           1.4
RI        :       2.0            2.0            7.6            7.5        -1.3
SC        :      26             23             84             80          -4.8
SD        :     104            102            350            366           4.6
TN        :     110            104            371            347          -6.5
TX        :     384            372          1,265          1,234          -2.5
UT        :      91             90            394            383          -2.8
VT        :     158            158            660            665           0.8
VA        :     121            120            449            439          -2.2
WA        :     263            260          1,350          1,349          -0.1
WV        :      18             18             66             69           4.5
WI        :   1,391          1,366          5,730          5,786           1.0
WY        :       6.0            5.5           20.4           19.3        -5.4
          :
US 3/     :   9,251          9,203         38,805         38,685          -0.3
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/  Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh.
2/  Excludes milk sucked by calves.
3/  Milk cows will not add due to rounding.
 
 
 
 
             Milk Cows and Production:  By State and United States,
                      Preliminary October-December, 1997-98
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          :    Oct-Dec Milk Cows 1/     : Oct-Dec Milk Production 2/  : Change
   State  :-----------------------------------------------------------:  From
          :     1997     :     1998     :     1997     :     1998     :  1997
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          :   ----- 1,000 Head -----       ---- Million Pounds ----     Percent
          :
AL        :      29             27            100             90         -10.0
AK        :       0.9            0.8            3.80           3.51       -7.6
AZ        :     130            132            632            674           6.6
AR        :      52             51            153            171          11.8
CA        :   1,343          1,394          6,918          6,975           0.8
CO        :      83             83            395            414           4.8
CT        :      30             30            128            128
DE        :      10.5           11.0           38.2           44.6        16.8
FL        :     159            158            571            545          -4.6
GA        :      96             90            357            341          -4.5
HI        :       8.9            8.8           27.7           29.5         6.5
ID        :     280            300          1,334          1,472          10.3
IL        :     145            139            558            558
IN        :     140            142            544            559           2.8
IA        :     241            240            996          1,016           2.0
KS        :      80             83            315            320           1.6
KY        :     141            131            423            395          -6.6
LA        :      76             68            184            176          -4.3
ME        :      39             41            160            163           1.9
MD        :      86             86            331            352           6.3
MA        :      25             26            105            105
MI        :     301            298          1,313          1,333           1.5
MN        :     572            555          2,190          2,281           4.2
MS        :      44             41            142            131          -7.7
MO        :     164            163            552            573           3.8
MT        :      18             18             70             73           4.3
NE        :      69             72            261            290          11.1
NV        :      26             26            122            122
NH        :      18             19             80             77          -3.8
NJ        :      20             19             71             72           1.4
NM        :     206            218          1,002          1,083           8.1
NY        :     699            702          2,798          2,868           2.5
NC        :      75             72            306            291          -4.9
ND        :      49             50            159            172           8.2
OH        :     274            266          1,060          1,072           1.1
OK        :      95             94            310            310
OR        :      88             88            388            400           3.1
PA        :     639            631          2,669          2,679           0.4
RI        :       2.0            2.0            7.7            7.6        -1.3
SC        :      25             24             91             90          -1.1
SD        :     102            102            338            366           8.3
TN        :     106            101            371            357          -3.8
TX        :     380            366          1,350          1,344          -0.4
UT        :      89             93            366            381           4.1
VT        :     158            161            640            661           3.3
VA        :     120            120            466            448          -3.9
WA        :     260            260          1,276          1,327           4.0
WV        :      18             18             68             68
WI        :   1,385          1,368          5,394          5,630           4.4
WY        :       5.7            5.5           18.2           19.3         6.0
          :
US 3/     :   9,206          9,194         38,153         39,058           2.4
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/  Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh.
2/  Excludes milk sucked by calves.
3/  Milk cows will not add due to rounding.
 
 
 
 
                       Reliability Statement
 
Survey Procedures:  Primary data used to determine these estimates were
obtained from a sample of producers.  Individual States maintain a list of all
known milk producers and information on the size of their herd.  States use all
known sources of producers to ensure that their lists are as complete as
possible. Generally, all large producers and a sample of small producers are
included in the survey.  Questionnaires are mailed to producers near the end of
the month to obtain data for the first day of the month.  Additional reports
are obtained by telephone, as needed, to supplement the mail response.
 
 
Estimation Procedures:  State offices prepare these estimates using survey
indications, historic trends, and any available administrative data. Individual
State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board for
reasonableness.
 
 
Revision Policy:  Milk production, rate per cow, and number of cows are subject
to revision the following month for monthly States or the following quarter for
the quarterly States.  Normally, Federal Market Order sales are the main basis
for revisions. However, data for all orders are not available in time for this
revision.  Estimates are again subject to revisions in February each year based
on additional administrative data.  In the event that additional changes are
necessary, a third revision is possible in February the following year.
Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five-year Census of
Agriculture are available. No revisions are made after that date.
 
 
Reliability:  Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in the
sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results
are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and
mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these
errors cannot be measured directly.  They are minimized through rigid quality
controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all
reported data for consistency and reasonableness.
 
 
To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report,
the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items on the next page. The
"Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and
is computed using the differences between first and final estimates.  The "Root
Mean Square Error" for milk cow inventory estimates over the past 10 quarters
is 1.2 percent.  This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final
October-December estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of
9.19 million head by more than 1.2 percent, or about 110,000 head.  Chances are
9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 2.3 percent, or about 211,000
head (the 90 percent confidence level).
 
 
 
                Reliability of October-December Milk Estimates 1/
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             :       :                :   Difference Between    :   Quarters
             : Root  :      90%       :    First and Latest     :---------------
             : Mean  :   Confidence   :        Estimates        : First : First
     Item    :Square :     Level      :-------------------------: Above : Below
             : Error :                :Average:Smallest:Largest :Latest :Latest
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             :    Percent       ------- Million Pounds ------         Number
             :
Milk         :
  Production :  0.6     1.1     430      185      66      385       9       1
             :    Percent       --------- 1,000 Head --------         Number
             :
All Milk     :
  Cows       :  1.2     2.3     211      100       2      195       8       2
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/  Based on records for the past 10 October-December quarters.
 
 
 
The next "Milk Production" report will be released at 3 p.m. ET on February 16,
1999.
 
 
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