14 -i 

### CHAPTER 14. UTILITY IMPACT ANALYSIS

TABLE OF CONTENTS

14.1 INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................ 14-1

14.2 METHODOLOGY ........................................................................................................... 14-1

14.3 RESULTS ......................................................................................................................... 14-2

REFERENCES .......................................................................................................................... 14-7

LIST OF TABLES

Table 14.3.1 Reference Case Forecast: Electricity Consumption, Electricity Generation,

and Electricity Capacity ..................................................................................... 14-3

Table 14.3.2 Utility Impacts for Emerging Technologies Roll Scenario from TSL 1............... 14-3

Table 14.3.3 Utility Impacts for Emerging Technologies Roll Scenario from TSL 2............... 14-4

Table 14.3.4 Utility Impacts for Emerging Technologies Roll Scenario from TSL 3............... 14-4

Table 14.3.5 Utility Impacts for Existing Technologies Shift Scenario from TSL 1 ................ 14-5

Table 14.3.6 Utility Impacts for E xisting Technologies Shift Scenario from TSL 2 ................ 14-5

Table 14.3.7 Utility Impacts for Existing Technologies Shift Scenario from TSL 3 ................ 14-614 -1 

### CHAPTER 14. UTILITY IMPACT ANALYSIS

14.1 INTRODUCTION

The utility impact analysis estimates the change in the forecasted power generation

capacity of the nation that would be expected to result from the adoption of amended efficacy

efficiency standards. The U.S. Department of Energy ( DOE ) used a version of the Energy

Information Administration’s ( EIA’s ) National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) for this

analys i s. NEMS , which is publicly available

, is a large, multi

- sectoral, partial equilibrium model

of the U.S. energy sector. EIA uses NEMS to produce its Annual Energy Outlook (

AEO ), 1 

### a widely recognized baseline energy forecast for the United States. The version of NEMS used for

appliance standards analysis is called NEMS -Building Technologies ( NEMS

- BT ) and is based

on AEO2010 with minor modifications. The NEMS- BT offers a sophisticated picture of the

effect of standards, since it accounts for the interactions between the various energy supply and

demand sectors and the economy as a whole.

The utility impact analysis reports the changes in installed capacity and generation, by

fuel type, that result from the adoption of amended efficacy standards at each trial standard level

(TSL), as well as changes i n electricity consumption.

14.2 METHODOLOGY

To estimate the effects of the proposed standards on the electric utility industry, DOE

used NEMS

- BT to provide key inputs to the analysis. EIA approves the use of the name NEMS

only to describe an official version of the model with no modif ications to the modeling code or

data. Because this analysis entails some minor code modifications and the model is run under

multiple policy scenarios that are variations on EIA assumptions, DOE refers to it as NEMS

- BT.

For fluorescent lamp ballasts , the analysis consisted of forecasted differences between the

base and standards cases for electricity generation, installed capacity, and electricity sales. The

NEMS

- BT model provides reference case load shapes for several end uses, including lighting

applications.

For electrical end uses, NEMS

- BT uses predicted growth in demand for each end use to

project the total electric system load growth for each region, which in turn predicts the necessary

additions to electrical generation capacity. NEMS -BT also accounts for the implementation of

energy conservation standards by decrementing the appropriate reference case load shape. DOE

determine s the size of the decrement the same way it calculates national energy savings except

that it uses site energy without converting it into source energy.

The use of NEMS- BT f or the utility impact analysis offers several advantages. As the

official DOE energy forecasting model, NEMS

- BT relies on a set of transparent assumptions that

have received wide exposure and commentary. NEMS- BT allows an estimate of the interactions

betwe en the various energy supply and demand sectors and the economy as a whole.14 -2 

### DOE conducted the utility impact analysis as a variant of the AEO 2010 , applying the

same basic set of assumptions. For example, the utility analysis uses the operating characteris tics

( e.g. , energy conversion efficacy, emissions rates) of future electricity generating plants.

The model uses predicted growth in demand for each end use to project total electric

system load growth for each region, which in turn is used to predict necessary additions to

electrical generation capacity.

The terminal year of the NEMS -BT model is 2035, impacts beyond which are typically

extrapolated

. As with the AEO reference case in general, the implicit premise is that the

regulatory environment does not deviate from the current known situation during the

extrapolation period. Only changes that have been announced with date-certain introduction are

included in NEMS- BT.

14.3 RESULTS

Results of the utility impact analysis include changes in electricity sales, installed

capacity, and generation for each TSL in 5- year forecasted increments extrapolated to 2043.

DOE provides result for two boundary scenarios: (1) e xisting technologies shi ft and (2) and

e merging t echnologies r oll. Results are for all TSLs presented in 5-year increments to year 2035

for the r eference c ase. Beyond 2035, an extrapolation to 2043 for each proposed TSL is

represented by a simpl e replication of the year 2035 resu lts.

The results for the r eference case are shown in Table 14.3.1 . A separate set of TSLs are

modeled for both the e xisting technologies shift and the emerging technologies roll scenarios as

the high and low range estimates, respectively. For additional discussion of the formulation of

these scenarios, see NOPR TSD chapter 10.

The NEMS

- BT results , including the difference from the r eference c ase results

, are presented in Table 14.3.2 through Table 14.3.7 . These tables also present the results across the

two scenarios.

Amended fluorescent lamp ballast efficacy standards result in decreases to electricity

consumption for all TSLs compared to the r eference case under both scenarios. Power generation

capacity is affected to a greater extent due to the larger decreases to electricity consumption

associated with their adoption. Power ge neration capacity is reduced by between 1.5 GW (for

TSL 1 under the emerging technologies roll scenario) and 7.2 GW (for TSL 3 under the existing

technologies s hift scenario).14 -3 

### Table 14.3.1 Reference Case Forecast: Electricity Consumption, Electricity Generation,

and Electricity Capacity

NEMS

- BT Results 2005 * 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Total Electricity Consumption **

Electricity Sales (TWh) 3,660 3,617 3,870 4,083 4,274 4,475 4,660

Total U.S. Electricity Generation §

Coal (TWh) 2,013 1,828 2,039 2,095 2,147 2,215 2,304

Petroleum (TWh) 122 122 122 122 122 122 122

Gas (TWh) 765 765 765 765 765 765 765

Nuclear (TWh) 782 782 782 782 782 782 782

Renewables (TWh) 369 369 369 369 369 369 369

Total (TWh) 4,052 3,866 4,078 4,133 4,185 4,253 4,343

Installed Generating Capacity

Fossil Steam (GW) §§ 431 432 411 407 407 410 415

Combined Cycle (GW) 170 197 201 201 209 234 244

Combus t ion Turbines (GW) 130 138 133 136 148 156 175

Nuclear (GW) 100 102 105 111 111 111 113

Renewables (GW) 115 146 176 177 179 182 191

Total (GW) 946 1,015 1,026 1,032 1,054 1,093 1,138

* Values for 2005 are reported by NEMS

- BT, but are very close to the historical values shown in various tables in AEO2010

.

** Compa rable to Table A8 of AEO2010

, Electricity Supply, Disposition, Prices, and Emissions

. Includes generation from

electricity

- only, combined heat and power, and end

- use generators

. § Comparable to Table A9 of AEO2010

, Electricity Generating Capacity

. §§ Includes coal steam and other fossil fuel steam plants

.



### Table 14.3.2 Utility Impacts for Emerging Technologies Roll Scenario from TSL 1

NEMS

- BT Results Difference from Reference Case

Extrapolation

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2043

Total Electricity Consumption

Electricity Sales (TWh)

- 0.91

- 2.81

- 4.14

- 4.90

- 5.11

- 5.11

- 5.11

Total U.S. Electricity Generation

Coal (TWh)

- 0.31

- 0.78

- 0.85

- 0.49 0.28 0.28 0.28

Petroleum (TWh)

- 0.01

- 0.01

- 0.01

- 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01

Gas (TWh)

- 0.14

- 0.55

- 1.01

- 1.54

- 2.14

- 2.14

- 2.14

Nuclear (TWh) 0.06 0.12 0.03

- 0.20

- 0.58

- 0.58

- 0.58

Renewables (TWh)

- 0.55

- 1.69

- 2.47

- 2.90

- 2.98

- 2.98

- 2.98

Total (TWh)

- 0.95

- 2.91

- 4.31

- 5.14

- 5.40

- 5.40

- 5.40

Installed Generating Capacity

Fossil Steam (GW)

- 0.02

- 0.06

- 0.07

- 0.04 0.02 0.02 0.02

Combined Cycle (GW)

- 0.04

- 0.15

- 0.28

- 0.41

- 0.53

- 0.53

- 0.53

Combus t ion Turbines (GW)

- 0.14

- 0.40

- 0.50

- 0.45

- 0.25

- 0.25

- 0.25

Nuclear (GW) 0.01 0.02 0.00

- 0.03

- 0.08

- 0.08

- 0.08

Renewables (GW)

- 0.16

- 0.46

- 0.65

- 0.72

- 0.68

- 0.68

- 0.68

Total (GW)

- 0.36

- 1.06

- 1.49

- 1.64

- 1.51

- 1.51

- 1.5114 -4 

### Table 14.3.3 Utility Impacts for Emerging Technologies Roll Scenario from TSL 2

NEMS

- BT Results Difference from Reference Case

Extrapolation

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2043

Total Electricity Consumption

Electricity Sales (TWh)

- 1.81

- 5.55

- 8.19

- 9.71

- 10.11

- 10.11

- 10.11

Total U.S. Electricity Generation

Coal (TWh)

- 0.61

- 1.55

- 1.67

- 0.97 0.56 0.56 0.56

Petroleum (TWh)

- 0.01

- 0.03

- 0.03

- 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.02

Gas (TWh)

- 0.28

- 1.08

- 2.01

- 3.06

- 4.24

- 4.24

- 4.24

Nuclear (TWh) 0.12 0.23 0.05

- 0.40

- 1.14

- 1.14

- 1.14

Renewables (TWh)

- 1.09

- 3.34

- 4.89

- 5.74

- 5.89

- 5.89

- 5.89

Total (TWh)

- 1.87

- 5.77

- 8.54

- 10.18

- 10.69

- 10.69

- 10.69

Installed Generating Capacity

Fossil Steam (GW)

- 0.05

- 0.12

- 0.13

- 0.08 0.04 0.04 0.04

Combined Cycle (GW)

- 0.08

- 0.31

- 0.55

- 0.80

- 1.04

- 1.04

- 1.04

Combus t ion Turbines (GW)

- 0.28

- 0.79

- 0.99

- 0.88

- 0.49

- 0.49

- 0.49

Nuclear (GW) 0.02 0.03 0.01

- 0.05

- 0.16

- 0.16

- 0.16

Renewables (GW)

- 0.31

- 0.91

- 1.28

- 1.42

- 1.35

- 1.35

- 1.35

Total (GW)

- 0.71

- 2.10

- 2.94

- 3.24

- 2.99

- 2.99

- 2.99



### Table 14.3.4 Utility Impacts for Emerging Technologies Roll Scenario from TSL 3

NEMS

- BT Results Difference from Reference Case

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Extrapolation

2040 2043

Total Electricity

Consumption

Electricity Sales (TWh)

- 2.64

- 8.12

- 11.97

- 14.19

- 14.78

- 14.78

- 14.78

Total U.S. Electricity

Generation

Coal (TWh)

- 0.89

- 2.27

- 2.45

- 1.42 0.81 0.81 0.81

Petroleum (TWh)

- 0.02

- 0.04

- 0.04

- 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.03

Gas (TWh)

- 0.41

- 1.58

- 2.93

- 4.47

- 6.20

- 6.20

- 6.20

Nuclear (TWh) 0.18 0.33 0.08

- 0.59

- 1.66

- 1.66

- 1.66

Renewables (TWh)

- 1.60

- 4.88

- 7.14

- 8.38

- 8.61

- 8.61

- 8.61

Total (TWh)

- 2.74

- 8.43

- 12.48

- 14.88

- 15.62

- 15.62

- 15.62

Installed Generating

Capacity

Fossil Steam (GW)

- 0.07

- 0.18

- 0.19

- 0.11 0.07 0.07 0.07

Combined Cycle (GW)

- 0.12

- 0.45

- 0.80

- 1.17

- 1.52

- 1.52

- 1.52

Combus t ion Turbines (GW)

- 0.42

- 1.15

- 1.44

- 1.29

- 0.71

- 0.71

- 0.71

Nuclear (GW) 0.02 0.04 0.01

- 0.08

- 0.23

- 0.23

- 0.23

Renewables (GW)

- 0.45

- 1.33

- 1.88

- 2.08

- 1.97

- 1.97

- 1.97

Total (GW)

- 1.04

- 3.07

- 4.30

- 4.73

- 4.37

- 4.37

- 4.3714 -5 

### Table 14.3.5 Utility Impacts for Existing Technologies Shift Scenario from TSL 1

NEMS

- BT Results Difference from Reference Case

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Extrapolation

2040 2043

Total Electricity Consumption

Electricity Sales (TWh)

- 1.65

- 5.51

- 9.03

- 12.19

- 15.00

- 15.00

- 15.00

Total U.S. Electricity

Generation

Coal (TWh)

- 0.65

- 1.78

- 2.18

- 1.87

- 0.84

- 0.84

- 0.84

Petroleum (TWh) 0.00

- 0.01

- 0.01

- 0.01

- 0.01

- 0.01

- 0.01

Gas (TWh) 0.48 0.67

- 0.59

- 3.30

- 7.45

- 7.45

- 7.45

Nuclear (TWh) 0.09 0.17 0.05

- 0.28

- 0.81

- 0.81

- 0.81

Renewables (TWh)

- 1.65

- 4.83

- 6.70

- 7.23

- 6.45

- 6.45

- 6.45

Total (TWh)

- 1.73

- 5.78

- 9.43

- 12.69

- 15.56

- 15.56

- 15.56

Installed Generating Capacity

Fossil Steam (GW)

- 0.07

- 0.20

- 0.25

- 0.22

- 0.13

- 0.13

- 0.13

Combined Cycle (GW)

- 0.06

- 0.31

- 0.70

- 1.22

- 1.74

- 1.74

- 1.74

Combus t ion Turbines (GW)

- 0.28

- 0.78

- 0.98

- 0.89

- 0.53

- 0.53

- 0.53

Nuclear (GW) 0.01 0.02 0.01

- 0.04

- 0.12

- 0.12

- 0.12

Renewables (GW)

- 0.45

- 1.32

- 1.79

- 1.87

- 1.66

- 1.66

- 1.66

Total (GW)

- 0.86

- 2.58

- 3.71

- 4.24

- 4.17

- 4.17

- 4.17



### Table 14.3.6 Utility Impacts for Existing Technologies Shift Scenario from TSL 2

NEMS

- BT Results Difference from Reference Case

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Extrapolation

2040 2043

Total Electricity Consumption

Electricity Sales (TWh)

- 2.05

- 6.86

- 11.24

- 15.18

- 18.68

- 18.68

- 18.68

Total U.S. Electricity

Generation

Coal (TWh)

- 0.81

- 2.21

- 2.72

- 2.33

- 1.05

- 1.05

- 1.05

Petroleum (TWh) 0.00

- 0.01

- 0.01

- 0.01

- 0.01

- 0.01

- 0.01

Gas (TWh) 0.60 0.83

- 0.73

- 4.11

- 9.28

- 9.28

- 9.28

Nuclear (TWh) 0.11 0.21 0.06

- 0.35

- 1.00

- 1.00

- 1.00

Renewables (TWh)

- 2.05

- 6.02

- 8.34

- 9.01

- 8.03

- 8.03

- 8.03

Total (TWh)

- 2.15

- 7.20

- 11.75

- 15.81

- 19.38

- 19.38

- 19.38

Installed Generating Capacity

Fossil Steam (GW)

- 0.09

- 0.25

- 0.31

- 0.28

- 0.16

- 0.16

- 0.16

Combined Cycle (GW)

- 0.08

- 0.39

- 0.87

- 1.52

- 2.16

- 2.16

- 2.16

Combus t ion Turbines (GW)

- 0.35

- 0.97

- 1.22

- 1.10

- 0.66

- 0.66

- 0.66

Nuclear (GW) 0.02 0.03 0.01

- 0.05

- 0.15

- 0.15

- 0.15

Renewables (GW)

- 0.57

- 1.64

- 2.23

- 2.33

- 2.06

- 2.06

- 2.06

Total (GW)

- 1.07

- 3.22

- 4.62

- 5.28

- 5.20

- 5.20

- 5.2014 -6 

### Table 14.3.7 Utility Impacts for Existing Technologies Shift Scenario from TSL 3

NEMS

- BT Results Difference from Reference Case

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Extrapolation

2040 2043

Total Electricity Consumption

Electricity Sales (TWh)

- 2.85

- 9.54

- 15.62

- 21.09

- 25.95

- 25.95

- 25.95

Total U.S. Electricity

Generation

Coal (TWh)

- 1.13

- 3.07

- 3.78

- 3.24

- 1.46

- 1.46

- 1.46

Petroleum (TWh) 0.00

- 0.01

- 0.02

- 0.02

- 0.02

- 0.02

- 0.02

Gas (TWh) 0.83 1.16

- 1.02

- 5.71

- 12.90

- 12.90

- 12.90

Nuclear (TWh) 0.15 0.29 0.08

- 0.48

- 1.40

- 1.40

- 1.40

Renewables (TWh)

- 2.85

- 8.36

- 11.59

- 12.52

- 11.16

- 11.16

- 11.16

Total (TWh)

- 2.99

- 10.00

- 16.32

- 21.97

- 26.93

- 26.93

- 26.93

Installed Generating Capacity

Fossil Steam (GW)

- 0.12

- 0.34

- 0.43

- 0.39

- 0.23

- 0.23

- 0.23

Combined Cycle (GW)

- 0.11

- 0.54

- 1.21

- 2.12

- 3.01

- 3.01

- 3.01

Combus t ion Turbines (GW)

- 0.49

- 1.35

- 1.70

- 1.53

- 0.91

- 0.91

- 0.91

Nuclear (GW) 0.02 0.04 0.01

- 0.07

- 0.20

- 0.20

- 0.20

Renewables (GW)

- 0.79

- 2.28

- 3.10

- 3.24

- 2.87

- 2.87

- 2.87

Total (GW)

- 1.48

- 4.47

- 6.42

- 7.34

- 7.22

- 7.22

- 7.2214 -7 

### REFERENCES

1. U.S. Department of Energy–Energy Information Administration. Annual Energy Outlook

2010 . 2010. (Last accessed February 27, 2011.)

< www.eia.gov/oiaf/archive/aeo10/index.html >