United States Department of Agriculture / Forest Service

Rocky Mountain Research Station

General Technical Report RMRS-GTR-298WWW

June 2013

Decision Making for Wildfires:

A Guide for Applying a Risk Management Process 

at the Incident Level
Taber, Mary A.; Elenz, Lisa M.; Langowski, Paul G. 2013. Decision Making for Wildfires: A Guide for 

Applying a Risk Management Process at the Incident Level. Gen. Tech. Rep. RMRS-GTR-298WWW. 

Fort Collins, CO: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research 

Station. 59 p.

Abstract

This publication focuses on the thought processes and considerations surrounding a risk management process 

for decision making on wildfires. The publication introduces a six element risk management cycle designed to 

encourage sound risk-informed decision making in accordance with Federal wildland fire policy, although the 

process is equally applicable to non-Federal fire managers and partners. The process describes the assessment 

and control of identified risks, the analysis of benefits and costs, and the risk decision at multiple scales. Decision makers can apply principles from this publication to specific decision documentation structures such as 

the Wildland Fire Decision Support System (WFDSS) or other wildland fire decision documentation systems. 

Keywords: risk management, risk assessment, risk-informed decision making, wildland fire management 

policy, land management objectives.

Authors

Mary A. Taber retired in July 2012 as the national Fire Ecology program lead for the Bureau of Indian Affairs, 

and chair of the NWCG Fire Use Subcommittee, National Interagency Fire Center, Boise, Idaho.

Lisa M. Elenz is the Deputy Program Manager for the Wildland Fire Management Research, Development and 

Applications program of the Rocky Mountain Research Station, National Interagency Fire Center, Boise, Idaho.

Paul G. Langowski is the Branch Chief for Fuels and Fire Ecology for the Rocky Mountain Region of the 

US Forest Service in Golden, Colorado. He is the USFS/Fire Management representative to the NWCG Fire 

Use Subcommittee.

Acknowledgments

This publication resulted from dialog that was initiated within the NWCG Fire Use subcommittee regarding 

wildland fire decision making and risk management. The document represents the work of several groups of 

fire professionals who developed content, integrated existing references, and sought feedback from other fire 

professionals with experience in wildfire decision making, risk management, and long-term incident planning. 

The draft version was distributed for use and comment during the 2012 wildfire season; the final document 

represents a “crowd-sourced” effort to gather and organize useful guidance for today’s fire managers and 

decision makers in all agencies and organizations involved in wildfire management.

In addition to those listed as authors, the following people provided substantial contributions to this document:

Stu Hoyt (USFS) and Dick Bahr (NPS) were contributing members of the initial efforts to develop an outline 

for the document and identification of items to address. Dick Bahr was instrumental in coordinating the funding for early development of the document.

The “Red Team:” Byron Bonney (retired), George Weldon (retired), Bart Hoag (retired), Walt Tomascak 

(retired).

The “Black Team:” Anne Black (USFS), Brett Fay (USFWS), Chuck Mark (USFS), Diane Hutton (USFS), 

Emily Irwin (USFS), Christopher Marks (NPS), Andy Norman (NPS), Allen Rowley (USFS).

NWCG Committees: The Fuels Management Committee provided a sounding board as the document was 

developed. The Risk Management and Interagency Fire Planning Committees reviewed the draft and provided 

comments and spirited dialogue in the development of the final content.

Individual Contributions: Tim Sexton (USFS) provided program sponsorship and support, and made substantial comments and suggestions to each version of the document. Michael Hand (USFS) and Sarah Fisher 

(USFS) provided the content on the Stratified Cost Index.
Table of Contents

Introduction....................................................................................................................................................1

Purpose.......................................................................................................................................................2

Policy Basis................................................................................................................................................3

Using This Publication...............................................................................................................................3

The Concept of Risk and Risk Management in Wildfire Decision Making ..................................................4

Definitions of Risk.....................................................................................................................................4

A Multilevel Approach to Risk Management on Wildfires .......................................................................5

Principles of Risk-Informed Decision Making..........................................................................................6

The Deliberative Process.......................................................................................................................7

An Iterative Non-Linear Approach to a Linear Process........................................................................8

Progressive Decision Making ................................................................................................................8

Applying the Best Available Information...............................................................................................9

The Risk Management Cycle.....................................................................................................................9

Applying the Risk Management Cycle at the Strategic Level.....................................................................12

Situational Awareness..............................................................................................................................12

Planning Area ......................................................................................................................................13

Objectives and Requirements...............................................................................................................15

Framing the Decision Space................................................................................................................17

Assessment...............................................................................................................................................20

The Relative Risk Assessment Process.................................................................................................20

The Extended Risk Assessment.............................................................................................................22

Benefits Analysis..................................................................................................................................27

Risk Control.............................................................................................................................................30

Developing the Course of Action .........................................................................................................30

Resource Availability and Organizational Needs for the Course of Action.........................................34

Cost Estimation....................................................................................................................................35

Decision ...................................................................................................................................................38

Rationale for the Decision ...................................................................................................................38

Approval...............................................................................................................................................39

Implementation ........................................................................................................................................41

Delegation of Authority........................................................................................................................41

Implementation of the Course of Action ..............................................................................................42

Evaluation ................................................................................................................................................43

Periodic Assessment.............................................................................................................................43

Monitoring ...........................................................................................................................................45

Post-Incident Evaluation .....................................................................................................................47

Conclusion ...................................................................................................................................................48

References....................................................................................................................................................48

Appendix A: Preplanning for Wildland Decision Making...........................................................................50

Appendix B: WFDSS Crosswalk for Federal Agencies...............................................................................58
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Introduction

In 2009, the Fire Executive Council approved the Guidance for Implementation 

of Federal Wildland Fire Management Policy (the 2009 Guidance), replacing in 

whole the direction provided by the 2003 Interagency Strategy for the Implementation of Federal Wildland Fire Management Policy (the 2003 Strategy). The 2009 

Guidance also negated the National Wildfire Coordinating Group’s (NWCG) 

2005 Memorandum, Three Kinds of Wildland Fire, narrowing the classification 

of wildland fires to two kinds, Wildfires and Prescribed Fires.

Federal Fire Policy

Wildland fire is a general term describing any non-structure fire that occurs in the wildland. Wildland fires are 

categorized into two distinct types: 

a. Wildfires – Unplanned ignitions or prescribed fires that are declared wildfires 

b. Prescribed Fires – Planned ignitions — 2009 Guidance for Implementation of Federal Wildland Fire Management Policy

With the 2009 Guidance, the distinction between wildfires as unplanned, unwanted 

wildland fire... where the objective is to put the fire out, and “wildland fire use” fires 

as ...naturally ignited wildland fires...[managed] to accomplish specific resource 

objectives was eliminated—all unplanned ignitions are termed “wildfires.” The 

directives from the 2003 Strategy that limited a wildfire to a single, “suppression 

or resource benefit” objective, and prohibited a suppressed wildfire from being 

managed for resource benefit objectives at a later time were also overridden.

The evolution from the 2003 Strategy to the 2009 Guidance removed constraints 

that limited the decision space of fire managers and agency administrators, and 

gave them greater flexibility to do the right thing at the right place at the right time. 

In some places, fire will be suppressed at the smallest size possible; in others, fire 

will be managed to achieve land management objectives. And, in many places, fire 

management will include both capturing benefits to natural resources as well as 

focusing fire management efforts on protecting values (human-made or natural) 

that may be harmed by fire.

This greater flexibility and larger decision space increases responsibility for determining the most appropriate management response to every unplanned ignition.

	 •	 There ismore responsibilityfor continuouslyreevaluatingdecisionstoensure

that they are still the most effective responses under changing conditions.

	 •	 Widespread drought, fuels accumulation, cost containment, and resource

availability limit the probability of success even in those situations where 

full suppression may be the desired strategy. This creates long-duration 

incidents in spite of the best efforts of fire managers. 
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	 •	 Skillfully managing firefighter safety, costs, community impacts, ecological consequences, and political pressures in these incidents requires sound, 

defensible decisions based on reliable information and analyses as well as 

detailed documentation of the bases for the decisions in a clear, comprehensible format.

The process described in this publication is intended to offer assistance in addressing these expectations.

Purpose

The purpose of this publication is to assist fire managers, resource specialists, and 

agency administrators in developing and communicating timely and sound risk

management-based decisions for managing wildfires. The process described in 

this publication is consistent with the Federal fire policy for the U.S. Department

of Agriculture (USDA), Forest Service; and the U.S. Department of the Interior

(USDOI), Bureau of Indian Affairs (BIA), U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS),

NationalParkService (NPS), andBureauofLandManagement(BLM).Other agencies (state, local, and nongovernmental) may find this publication useful in applying 

the risk management process to wildfire decision making within the requirements

and framework of their own agency policies and procedures. This publication can

also aid in decision making with their Federal partners.

This publication provides guidance on the risk assessment and risk management

process, flow, and documents points to consider in making informed, sound riskbased decisions. It emphasizes the thought process behind sound fire management 

decision making using a risk management process, without tying the process to a

specific decision documentation structure (for example, theWildland Fire Decision

Support System [WFDSS] or Wildland Fire SituationAnalysis [WFSA]). WFDSS

users will find tips on integrating the risk management products into the system

in outtake boxes at the end of each section of the Applying the Risk Management 

Cycle chapter. Users of other decision documentation systems are encouraged to 

develop crosswalks between the riskmanagement process described in this publication and their specific decision documentation structure. These crosswalks could

prove particularly useful on incidents managed under Unified Command involving 

multiple agencies that use different decision document systems or requirements.

This publication assists in determining methods to make fire management decisions consistent with the policy directives and to base those activities on sound 

risk management. Nothing herein establishes, alters, or substitutes for policy, 

nor does it establish any additional requirements or standard practices for 

Federal agencies.

Federal Fire Policy

Sound risk management is a foundation for all fire management activities. Risks and 

uncertainties relating to fire management activities must be understood, analyzed, communicated, 

and managed as they relate to the cost of either doing or not doing an activity. Net gains to the public 

benefit will be an important component of decisions.
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Policy Basis

This publication tiers specifically to the 2001 Review and Update of the 1995 Federal 

Fire Management Policy (the “2001 Review and Update”) and the 2009 Guidance. 

Colored boxes throughout this each section include outtakes from specific policy

statements to review and implement. Except where otherwise noted, the Federal 

Fire Policy statements are available in both the 2001 Review and Update and the 

2009 Guidance documents.

The process detailed in this publication represents a legitimate way to interpret and 

comply with Federal Fire Policy in fire management decision making. However,

it does not represent the ONLY decision-making process acceptable under Federal

FirePolicy.The riskmanagement process described herein is also generic enough to

be applicable to the policies of other fire management agencies and organizations.

Using This Publication

This publication begins with an introduction to risk and risk management at multiple levels of fire management decision making. The six subsequent main sections

describe in greater detail each of the six components of the risk management cycle

described in this process for decision making at the strategic level.

The main text also contains bordered boxes, as shown below, which contain supplemental material that relates to the subject matter in that section of the publication. 

The boxes are classified by color to assist the reader in applying the supplemental 

material.

Federal Fire Policy boxes refer to quotes from Federal fire policy documents that relate to the 

material in that section, but may be applicable to Federal agencies and tribes only.

Definitions boxes contain definitions or examples of terms used in this publication. The definitions 

given assist in understanding and interpreting the processes described in this publication, but they do 

not establish “official” terminology for Federal agencies.

Clarifying Questions boxes suggest useful questions for decision-makers to gain insight to the 

incident and the decision.

How Does This Fit into WFDSS? Risk Management is the foundational basis for the Wildland Fire Decision 

Support System (WFDSS). For those agencies that use WFDSS, each step of the process described in this 

document can be incorporated into the WFDSS decision. These boxes will highlight specifically where the 

information, analyses and documentation are located in WFDSS (some information is auto-populated; other 

information, analyses and documentation are user-added or user-created within the application). Links for 

more detailed technical instruction for the use of the WFDSS application are also provided.
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The Concept of Risk and Risk Management in 

Wildfire Decision Making

The wildfire decisions made by agency administrators can affect human life, private 

property, and values far outside the boundaries of their administrative unit in addition to the land base they manage. These decisions may well be the most critical 

(and criticized) decisions agency administrators make in the course oftheir careers.

Consequentially, the decisions must be made based on sound risk management and

the best information available to support the decisions.

Definitions of Risk

Risk science offers up multiple definitions of risk and its components and processes. 

Even within the fire management profession, definitions of risk vary significantly 

(Hardy 2005; Bachmann and Allgower 2000), and yet all risk and risk management practitioners can cite legitimate supporting evidence for their definitions. This 

publication does not attempt to establish a definitive lexicon for the discipline of 

risk management in wildland fire, but instead offers definitions for the purpose of

understanding the processes described herein.

Definitions of Risk Used in Decision Making for Wildfires

Risk: The likelihood or possibility of hazardous consequences in terms of severity or probability. In wildland fire 

decision making, risk is a function of values, hazards, and probability. 

Values: Those ecologic, social, and economic effects that could be lost or damaged because of a fire. 

Examples include property, structures, natural and cultural resources, community infrastructure, public 

support, economic opportunities such as tourism, and air quality.

Hazard: A condition or situation capable of causing physical harm, injury, or damage to values.

Probability: The likelihood of a hazard to adversely affect values.

Risk Management: The process whereby management decisions are made and actions taken concerning 

control of risk and acceptance of remaining risk. It involves the identification, assessment, and prioritization of 

risks followed by coordinated and economical application of resources to minimize, monitor, and control the 

probability and/or impact of unfortunate events. (Hubbard 2009 in A Comparative Risk Assessment Framework 

for Wildland Fire Management 2011)

Risk Management Cycle: A continuous, multi-step process that provides a systematic method for identifying and 

managing the risks associated with any operation. The six components used in wildfire decision making are:

1. Situational Awareness

2. Assessment

3. Risk Control

4. Decision 

5. Implementation

6. Evaluation

Risk Assessment: A focused collection of products, processes and analyses which organizes information and 

assigns values (relative, qualitative or quantitative) to risks for the purpose of informing priorities, developing or 

comparing courses of action, and informing decision making. 

Risk Control: The mitigation of the hazards, threats, and causes identified by the risk assessment and 

implementation of actions to improve outcomes and minimize negative consequences.
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A Multilevel Approach to Risk Management on Wildfires

Risk management is applied at all levels of wildfire decision making, from the

individual firefighter on the ground facing changing environmental conditions, to 

the national office leaders of the fire management agencies weighing limited budgets against increasingly active fire seasons. The tools and processes used at each 

level differ in order to address variations in focus and scope, but the overarching 

processes and results reflect a unified approach to controlling and accepting risk

for the purpose of meeting stated objectives.

Emerging direction in the human safety community of wildland fire management 

describes risk management processes applicable at the tactical implementation (or 

Time-Sensitive) level through an Operational level, reflecting the incident organization and supervisory levels, up to the Planning level, which occurs during the daily 

incident planning cycle. This publication primarily describes the Strategic level, 

which covers decisions about strategic direction for a wildfire incident (figure 1).

Figure 1. Risk Management at the Incident Level: Strategic to Time-Sensitive

The Strategic level risk management involves a broad, coarse-scale analysis that

evaluates specific:

	 •	 Concerns, including communities,sensitive resources, water and air quality,

wildlife habitat, and other economic, social and ecological values.

	 •	 The fire environment, including weather,fuels, and topography asthey relate

to hazards.

	 •	 The probability of negative impacts, and opportunities to use fire to meet

resource objectives. 
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Examples of decision making at this level involve developing a strategic alternative and objectives for a wildfire incident; consider a range of values, hazards and 

probabilities and focus on longer time periods. They are usually completed at least 

once, but may require revision, adjustment or a completely new decision as the 

incident evolves and conditions change. The decision is usually documented in the 

incident-specific document and approved by an agency administrator.

Each level of risk management tiers to the levels above and below it (figure 1). 

Decisions made at the Strategic level affect the actions proposed at the lowerlevels,

which are subject to a risk management process at that spatial and temporal scale.

The outcomes at the lower levels are also evaluated at the higher levels to assess 

the degree to which actions on the ground support the objectives and anticipated 

risk acceptance. For instance, the risk management process at the Strategic level

may result in a selected course of action to implement a point protection strategy 

to protect a series of backcountry cabins scattered across a wilderness area that are

predicted to be impacted by the wildfire. Initial efforts to implement this strategy 

on the ground proved successful when the cabins were located in grass or timber 

fuels types, but were unsuccessful in two cases where the cabins were located in a 

brush fuel type. The course of action was reevaluated and altered to implement a 

suppression strategy on the portion of the fire where several cabins were situated 

adjacent to brush fuels.

Acceptance of risk at one level may also be altered by rejection of risk at a different level. The evaluation of risk at the national Programmatic level may result in

an agency choosing to limit the range of allowable strategies at the Strategic level,

or even certain tactics at the Operational level. A chosen strategy at the Strategic

level is reassessed at each level as it moves toward implementation on the ground. 

Unanticipated conditions at a lower level may result in a refusal of the remaining 

risk, which may push the decision to implement back to a higher level for reconsideration if the risks cannot be mitigated to an acceptable level within the framework

of the existing decision. Each level is interconnected and linked to the processes

at higher and lower levels.

TheStrategic,Planning,Operational, andTime-Sensitive levels comprise “Incident

Level” risk management.Additional levels of implementing the Risk Management

Process in wildland fire management exist above the Incident level (for example, 

the Unit, Agency, and Programmatic levels, among others), but these levels are 

not detailed in this publication. This publication focuses primarily on the Strategic

level of incident management decision making, with reference to instances where

it ties into the Planning, Operational, and Time-Sensitive levels.

Principles of Risk-Informed Decision Making

Managers must actively frame their decision space based on relevant information,

remove as much uncertainty as possible from the situation, and reach an informed 

and effective decision. Decisions commit resources and define risk mitigation

strategies to protect community, cultural and natural resources from damage, 

and/or contribute to meeting land management objectives. Adequately informed 
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decisions support better use of resources, reductions in firefighter exposure, and 

potentially, decreases in firefighting costs. Applying the Risk Management Cycle

(as discussed in the next section), at the strategic level rests on four core principles 

of risk-informed decision making:

	 •	 Using a Deliberative Process

	 •	 Applying an Iterative Approach

	 •	 Making Progressive Decisions

	 •	 Applying and Documenting the Best Available Information.

The Deliberative Process

Deliberation is the discussion, reflection, and persuasion to communicate, raise 

and collectively consider issues, increase understanding, and facilitate substantive decisions (Zimmerman 2011). The root 

of the word, deliberate, also implies intentionality and a carefully considered weighing 

of the consequences of proposed actions 

(NRC 1996). In the wildfire decision making 

process, deliberation involves discovering and 

evaluating management objectives, concerns, 

and constraints from various perspectives and 

disciplines in order to frame the analyses of 

the risk assessment and gain support for the 

decision. 

Wildfire decisions are inherently complex, and

decisions made from a single perspective and single base of knowledge without

supplemental input cannot hope to capture and address that complexity. Decision

makers should involve those people who provide the best information about:

	 •	 Fire behavior and fuel condition,

	 •	 Fire effects and resource impacts or benefits,

	 •	 Cooperative relationships,

	 •	 Firefighter capabilities,

	 •	 Any other areas of expertise relevant to the situation.

Deliberation ensuresthat the perspectives and knowledge of both technical experts

and stakeholders are incorporated and addressed in the decision. Deliberation

deepens the understanding of participants, captures knowledge from a variety of

perspectives, and helps ensure that decisions are successful by reducing blind spots 

and errors in interpretation. 

Deliberation implies an ongoing, iterative process of involvement by key partners

in the decision, including scientific and technical experts, agency administrators, 

and public officials, and other affected parties. It is conceptually the scientific and 

political peer review of the decision prior to approval by the decision maker(s).

The process of deliberation is the primary principle that helps ensure that wildfire 

decisions are truly and comprehensively risk-informed.

Federal Fire Policy

Implementation Actions: 

• Ensure that fire management 

program actions are implemented in 

collaboration with cooperators and 

affected partners with due 

consideration of all management 

objectives. 

• Agencies will engage cooperators 

and affected partners at the strategic, 

and program planning levels, as well 

as the tactical, program 

implementation level. 
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An Iterative Non-Linear Approach to a Linear Process

During the course of an incident, decision makers gather and analyze small pieces

of information in order to develop parts of the decision to be incorporated into the 

whole decision. During this process, decision makers processinformation back and

forth between the first three components of the Risk Management Cycle, leading 

to the decision. Individual parts of the course of action are proposed, analyzed, 

accepted or rejected, and, if accepted, added to the proposed course of action. Information and analysis is an ongoing process that affects the decision and its evaluation throughout the life of the incident. The process is dynamic, and although the 

various phases appear linear, new information can be entered at any phase (GAO

2005). In fact, the only place where the Risk Management Cycle is linear is in the

documentation; the information gathered, the analyses, and the course of action 

is grouped together sequentially in the decision documentation as an organizing 

framework, although the process leading up to the decision is anything but linear.

The iterative process is a cycle of continuous improvement where the process 

in being reevaluated as more information becomes available and uncertainty is 

reduced. The process continually builds upon existing information in an effort 

to reduce uncertainties and cohesively develop the most effective management 

response throughout the life of the incident.

Progressive Decision Making

Decisions are scalable over time based on the incident size and complexity. The

initial decision may be time-constrained but must consider the breadth of possibilities 

available for managing the incident. Additionally, the length of time before a new 

decision with a more detailed course of action or a potentially larger planning area 

is needed must be balanced with the ability to gather and analyze the information 

to support the decision within that timeframe. 

The length of time before a new decision is needed should be based on predictions 

or changes in fire activity, and/or obtaining new information that will change the 

expected outcome of the current decision. As values and risks are identified over

time, the fire environment changes or further analysis is completed, mitigations 

should be identified or other strategies considered to best achieve the incident 

objectives. Often this may require identifying a progressively larger planning area

and approving the course of action and decision multiple times over the life of the 

incident. This series of decisions is a normal occurrence in the decision making

process and should not be viewed as a failure of the earlier versions of the decision. 

Progressive decision making is the continual process of staying ahead of the fire, by

anticipating where the incident may burn within the decision timeframe, prioritizing 

the values at risk within that timeframe, and making the best decision based on the

information available at the time. As the more immediate incident concerns and threats 

are addressed and mitigated within the current decision and the fire behavior predictions 

indicate continued growth, the planning area can be expanded to incorporate larger 

areas in the subsequent decision. 
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Applying the Best Available Information

Oftenwildfiredecisionmakingoccursundertime-constrainedanddynamic circumstances where decision makers must rely on incomplete information and varying

degrees of uncertainty. Although the decision and its supporting information may 

be very simple initially, as progressive decisionmaking and deliberation take place,

the supporting information and analyses become more complex and should be 

commensurate with the scale and complexity of the incident. Timely documentation of the analyses and the decision rationale ensures that decisions are not later 

evaluated solely from the perspective of outcomes or more complete information 

that was not available at the time of the decision. Conversely, as decision making

progresses, additional information must be continually considered. Information 

and analyses that informed earlier decisions are likely inadequate to inform later

decisions as situations change and analyses become outdated. Documentation of

the best available information at the time of the decision and ongoing efforts to 

validate and complete the situational information are central to the defensibility 

of the decision and its acceptance by key stakeholders.

The Risk Management Cycle

The broad process of risk management is similar at each of the levels described

above; however, the individual components of risk management processes are

lumped and split in different ways to address variations in focus and complexity. The risk management processes used at the Planning, Operational and TimeSensitive levels is found in the Interagency Standards for Fire and Fire Aviation 

Operations(RedBook)(DOI and USDA), the Wildland Fire and Aviation Program 

Management and Operations Guide (Blue Book) (DOI) and in the Incident Response Pocket Guide (IRPG) (NWCG). The Red Book describes a five-component 

Risk Management Process that provides a systematic method for identifying and

managing the risks associated with fire operations:

	 •	 Establishing situation awareness.

	 •	 Identifying hazards and assessing the risk.

	 •	 Controlling or eliminating hazards.

	 •	 Making decisions based on acceptability of remaining risk.

	 •	 Evaluating effectiveness of hazard controls and continuously reevaluating

the situation. 

For the purposes of the Strategic Level risk management and this publication, we

use a six-component process entitled the Risk Management Cycle to define a similar process (figure 2). Again—the Risk Management Process described in the Red

Book, the Risk Management Cycle described in this publication for the Strategic

level, and other risk management procedures used within and outside the fire management profession share nearly identical concepts, but the individual components 

(and even the number of components) can vary across users and applications. 
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The six components of the Risk Management Cycle are:

	 •	 Situational Awareness—Collecting information to build an understanding 

of the situation, the context of the incident, and the decision space for the 

incident.

	 •	 Assessment—Analyzing the collected information to identify potential 

risks and opportunities. The purpose of this step is to use the information

collected and analyses performed to generate predictions about short-, near-, 

and long-term fire spread, intensity, and severity, and associated risks to

human health and safety, values of concern, and costs, as well as to identify 

potential benefits and opportunities.

	 •	 Risk Control—Developing controls to address identified risks, and opportunities to reduce risk and meet incident objectives. The purpose of this step

is to identify potential fire management strategies, tactics, and contingencies 

to mitigate identified risks and meet incident objectives.

	 •	 Decision—Validating the effectiveness of the decision and articulating the 

rationale supporting or rejecting the proposals and alternatives. This step 

includes acknowledging and accepting the residual risk that remains after

all reasonable mitigations have been implemented or planned. Fundamental 

to the Decision step is the careful weighing of the risk of potential losses

against the probability of positive outcomes.

Figure 2. Six-Component Risk Management Cycle.
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	 •	 Implementation—Providing direction to carry out the chosen course of 

action. The direction should include the intent of the chosen course of action, priorities, and specific and achievable objectives, requirements, and 

expectations.

	 •	 Evaluation—Periodically reassessing the situation and revising the decision 

and course of action as needed. This step recognizes the dynamic nature of 

wildland fire and encouragesthe decision maker to periodically update their

understanding of and response to the fire. This involves reviewing information and analyses, testing assumptions, and validating the course of action 

in terms of whether the approved course of action meets and will continue 

to meet the incident objectives. 

Each of these components is further explained in Applying the Risk Management 

Cycle at the Strategic Level.

Federal Fire Policy

Managers will use a decision support process to guide and document wildfire management 

decisions. The process will provide situational assessment, analyze hazards and risk, define 

implementation actions, and document decisions and rationale for those decisions.
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Applying the Risk Management Cycle at the Strategic Level

The next six sections detail the activities and thought processes that occur at each 

of the six components in the Risk Management Cycle at the Strategic Level. Each

component incorporates the four principles of deliberation, iteration, progression, 

and application of the best available information. The first component, Situational

Awareness,startstheRiskManagementCycle at theStrategicLevel.The remaining

five components generally occur in the order shown in figure 2 (and as described in 

this publication), however, they may occur concurrently depending on the fire event.

Situational Awareness

Informed, sound risk management decisions require accurate and 

timely assessment of the fire situation. Accurate assessment depends 

on gathering, utilizing, and 

documenting information 

pertinent and appropriate for the fire and fire 

area. The Situational Awareness component 

involves collecting existing information to 

build an understanding of the situation and 

the decision space for the incident. It is a 

size-up of the incident for decision-making 

purposes based on existing and readily available information about the current situation, and minimal analyses of potential 

outcomes. The information gathered during this component informs early responses 

to wildfire, and frames the questions and concerns that form the basis of the next 

component—assessment—throughout the life of the incident.

The amount of information and degree of detail considered and included in the decision should reflect the complexity, expected duration, and projected size of the fire 

event.Akey consideration in determining the amount of detail to include isthe time

available to gather the information before a decision must be made and approved by 

the agency administrator. In applying the Iterative Approach, a minimal amount of 

information may be available as the basis for the initial decision, but after the initial 

decision is made and is being implemented, additional information is gathered to 

validate and reinforce the decision. During this process, information and further

analysis may reveal additional opportunities or pitfalls that may indicate that a different response to managing the fire would be more effective. A revised response 

is planned and approved, and the process continues as more detailed information 

is evaluated and used to inform the decision. Documentation of the most reliable

information available within the timeframe allowed is imperative to provide and 

support the decision maker’s intent for the incident and ensure fire personnel have

aligned their actions to support that intent. Information readily available to inform 

the initial decision and subsequent updates of the situation includes:

	 •	 Basic Incident Information—Start date and time, map of the start’s location, size, cause (if known), and administrative unit is available from the

initial report or sizeup. 

Situational	
  Awareness:	
  Collecting	
  

existing	
  information	
  to	
  build	
  an	
  

understanding	
  of	
  the	
  situation	
  

and	
  the	
  decision	
  space	
  for	
  the	
  

incident.
USDA Forest Service Gen. Tech. Rep. RMRS-GTR-298WWW. 2013 13

	 •	 Context—Jurisdictions, protection responsibilities, and boundaries are 

available in Fire Management Plans (FMPs) and local GIS offices. The Fire

Management Units (FMUs) have defined the opportunities available for

responding to wildfire.

	 •	 Values (national and local data)—Values to be protected should be identified 

in the Land/Resource Management Plan and/or the local Fire Management

Plan(s) for the Fire Management Units affected. This work should be completed pre-season with cooperators.

	 •	 Resource Availability—National andregionalplanninglevels canbequickly

accessed at Geographic Coordination Centers (GACC) websites.

	 •	 Predictive Services Products—Information is provided at the GACC’s

websites including products such as the Significant 7-Day Fire Potential, a

readily available analysis of fuel dryness and weather conditions indicative 

of significant fire growth.

	 •	 Zone Weather Forecast—Zone forecasts and spot weather forecast requests 

can also be obtained readily and can support decision making.

	 •	 ERC Graphs –Pocket Cards—readily available to compare the current

season to previous years.

	 •	 Fire Behavior Observations—Responders have useful fire behavior and 

fuels conditions observations. 

	 •	 Fire Behavior Outputs—Initial fire behavior analysis can provide rough 

predictions on what can be expected near term, even if calibration and corrections may require more time.

	 •	 Smoke Dispersion—If smoke is a concern, smoke dispersion websites can

be consulted to determine the extent of potential air quality effects.

	 •	 Potential Fire Size—A review of fire history in the area, (which should be 

readily available to the unit given postseason assessments and preseason 

planning), are useful in predicting where the fire may burn, the potential 

size, and possible fire effects. A comparison of this fire season to others can 

also be useful in determining relative potential.

Planning Area

The planning area is the geographical area, where analysis and planning take place

to manage a wildfire. It is delineated by drawing a polygon on a map of the area 

where the fire is anticipated to grow. At its most basic, the planning area is the area 

for which a plan of action is being developed or has been made. It is different from 

the Maximum ManageableArea (MMA) oftheWildland Fire Implementation Plan

in that a planning area is an estimation of where the fire might burn if no action is 

taken, and not the area within which no action istaken to stop the spread of the fire.

The planning area also differs from the Wildland Fire Situation Analysis (WFSA)

boundary, as it is not a proposed containment boundary. The planning area simply 

delineates areas where the fire might burn within the lifespan of the decision, and 

therefore a plan is made to take the most effective action to meet the objectives of

the incident. It is the boundary within which managers prioritize actions based on 

values, proximity to the fire, and expected resource needs.
USDA Forest Service Gen. Tech. Rep. RMRS-GTR-298WWW. 2013 14

The planning area should encompass all proposed management actions. Planning 

management actions, even contingency actions, outside the planning area exposes 

the decision makers to the risk of inadvertently devising strategies and actions that

are inconsistent with the jurisdictional objectives and constraints applicable to the 

piece of ground where the action is planned. 

There is no set process for developing a planning area. Information that may be 

considered during the development of the planning area includes:

	 •	 Fire behavior and potential fire spread given the time of season, current and 

expected weather, and seasonal severity. Planning area size should be based 

on likelihood of fire reaching any point on the planning area perimeter. Fire

spread analyses can predict the extent and likelihood a fire may reach points

on the landscape. In most cases, a planning area may be overly large when 

it extends beyond the low probability areas for an extended timeframe (7 to

14 days).

	 •	 Values of high concern – Although the probability of the fire reaching the 

value may be low, the consequences are significant and justify planning an 

action to address that possibility.

	 •	 Time available to develop the plan within the planning area – An overly 

large planning area may result in the need to bring many more stakeholders

and cooperators into the decision process and assess potential consequences 

to many more values. A planning area that is too small results in a decision 

with a very short lifespan that may not adequately plan for the rare event of 

extreme fire growth.

	 •	 Other jurisdictions and stakeholders – The potential for early decisions to 

affect the probability of the fire spreading to other jurisdictions with different management direction and concerns may be grounds for an extended 

planning area. When conditions and analyses indicate a reasonable likelihood of these jurisdictions being impacted by the fire, it may be useful to 

include these perspectives and concerns early on in the deliberative process 

of developing the decision.

Decision makers should strive to draw the planning area well ahead of the fire. 

This allows for adequate planning and deliberation rather than crisis-driven decision making. If the fire breaches the planning area boundary, the planning area 

is no longer valid, and decision makers run the risk of taking actions that are not 

adequately informed or even approved by the appropriate jurisdictions. 

Clarifying Questions

Who are the key stakeholders that should be consulted 

prior to making the decision?

Is the fire predicted to reach other jurisdictions or other 

land management units?

How many agencies could potentially be involved?
USDA Forest Service Gen. Tech. Rep. RMRS-GTR-298WWW. 2013 15

Objectives and Requirements

Objectives represent the single most influential factor in land management program implementation. They are fundamental to successful management to achieve 

desired land use conditions (USDA Forest Service and USDOI 2005). In wildfire

decision making there are multiple types of objectives, depending on the level at

which the actions and decisions are taking place and the source of the objective.

The following Definitions box defines the types of objectives, and figure 3 depicts 

their hierarchical relationship to one another. In distinguishing between objectives 

and requirements, it is helpful to remember that objectives are usually related to 

desired future conditions, whereas requirements typically define limitations (sideboards) or specifications in achieving those objectives. 

The careful development of incident objectives based on the overarching objectives 

from the local Land/Resource Management Plan (L/RMP) is critical in crafting an

effective course of action. The incident objectives represent the primary method of 

directing subsequent actions on a wildfire incident, and greatly influence the costs, 

duration, and outcomes of the incident. Effective incident objectives begin with the 

Land/Resource Management Plan. All land management actions, including wildfire management actions, should be tiered to the Land and Resource Management

Plans. Decisions about managing wildfire flow from applicable Land andResource

Management Plans and Fire Management Plans (FMPs), and well-written objectives enable managers to report outcomes in terms of these objectives. Incident 

objectives should be well defined and articulated by the agency administrator to 

the incident management team/organization. This ensures that actions and decisions made during planning and implementation are consistent with the decision 

maker’s intent and contribute to achieving the land unit’s resource and protection

objectives. These objectives should be specific, measurable, achievable, relevant, 

and trackable (SMART) (Zimmerman 2001).

Figure 3. Hierarchical relationship of management objectives.
USDA Forest Service Gen. Tech. Rep. RMRS-GTR-298WWW. 2013 16

Definitions: Land Management Planning and Management Objectives

Land Management Plan: A document prepared with public participation and approved by an agency 

administrator that provides general guidance and direction for land and resource management activities for an 

administrative area. The L/RMP identifies the need for fire’s role in a particular area and for a specific benefit. 

The objectives in the L/RMP provide the basis for the development of fire management objectives and the fire 

management program in the designated area.

Land Management Objectives: The objectives set forth in an approved Land Management Plan, Resource Management 

Plan, Fire Management Plan, or other guiding document that provide the basis for land and resource management in a 

designated area; often referred to as “Desired Future Conditions.” These are broad statements that identify changes in 

water, soil, air, or vegetation from the present to proposed conditions but can also describe an existing resource condition 

that should be maintained. Land Management objectives deal with large areas over long time periods and project 

intended outcomes of management activities that contribute to the maintenance or achievement of desired conditions 

(Zimmerman 2001).

Land Management Requirements: The requirements set forth in an approved Land Management Plan, 

Resource Management Plan, Fire Management Plan, or other guiding document that provide the basis for land 

and resource management in a designated area. Requirements are directives, standards, specifications or 

constraints that must be complied with when implementing management actions.

Incident Objectives: Incident-specific statements of direction necessary for the selection of strategy(s) and 

tactical activities of resources on an incident. Incident objectives are derived from land management goals and 

must be achievable and measurable, yet flexible enough to allow for strategic and tactical alternatives. Incident 

objectives reflect the agency administrator’s intent in achieving desired outcomes and avoiding undesirable 

consequences.

There are two general categories of incident objectives:

Protection Objectives: Incident objectives derived from land-management direction to achieve 

protection of sensitive natural and cultural resources, facilities, and values from negative effects of 

unwanted fire. These objectives often begin with the phrase, “Protect [insert value] from damage...”

Resource Benefit Objectives: Incident objectives derived from land-management direction to achieve 

positive benefits from the presence of fire in a specific area. These objectives often begin with the 

phrase “Use fire to [enhance/maintain/promote] [insert resource and desired condition]...”

Incident Requirements: Incident-specific directives, standards, specifications, or constraints that need to be 

complied with when implementing management actions on a specific fire incident. Incident requirements derive 

from the Land Management Requirements, legal authorities, or other local influences (for example, county 

commissioners, air quality boards) that pertain to the incident or its associated actions; they often define the 

limitations or “sideboards” when implementing the Course of Action or define specifications in implementing 

actions.

Tactical Objectives: Statements of tactical direction for small, site-specific areas (for example, divisions or 

branches). Tactical objectives may be limited to short time periods, such as a single operational period 

(<24hours), but can be extended for multiple operational periods. Tactical objectives can serve as a means for 

tracking incident accomplishments and workload demand thresholds. Tactical objectives appear on the Incident 

Command System (ICS) 202 form under “Control Objectives” in the daily Incident Action Plan, and form the 

basis for daily work assignments on an incident.
USDA Forest Service Gen. Tech. Rep. RMRS-GTR-298WWW. 2013 17

Examples

Land Management Objective: Forest improvements such as ranger stations and work centers, patrol 

cabins, permanent research sites, backcountry barns and corrals, and established outfitter permittee 

camps are protected from unacceptable damage due to wildfire. 

Land Management Requirement: Minimum impact management techniques should be used when 

managing fire within any of the designated special management areas (Jewel Lake and Sweet Lake 

Botanical Areas, Elk River Wilderness, and Grey Creek Research Area).

Incident Objective: Protect Sweet Lake Patrol Cabin from damage due to exposure to fire.

Incident Requirement: Use minimum impact management techniques when suppressing fires within the 

Sweet Lake Botanical Area. Consult with Forest botanist prior to any ground-disturbing activities on sites 

where unique or sensitive plants exist (riparian areas of Flat and Shallow Creeks).

If it contributes to achieving a desired future condition from the Land/Resource Management Plan or the 

Fire Management Plan, including the protection of values of concern, it’s an objective. If it’s something 

that limits or defines the methods to be employed in meeting the objectives, it’s a requirement. 

Requirements may also be tied to external influences such as environmental laws or local constraints. 

Based on their level of experience, decision makers may recognize the incident as

similar to others they have encountered in the past, and can hone in on effective 

incident objectives relatively quickly. Other wildfire incidents may be outside the

range of past experience, and further information gathering, consultation, and analysis of the initial incident objectives during the Assessment component may reveal 

that the incident objectives must be revised in light of more complete information. 

Thus, the development of incident objectives is an iterative and deliberative process 

that may cycle back within the Risk Management Cycle before a final decision

is reached. It may be useful to view the initial incident objectives based on the 

Situational Awareness component as preliminary incident objectives subject to the

Assessment step and the development of an acceptable Course ofAction. Once the

incident objectives and requirements are established, it may be useful to prioritize 

the objectives as part of the decision to assist the incident management organization when unforeseen conflicts arise between objectives during implementation.

Framing the Decision Space

Agency policy, the unit Land and Resource Management Plans, and Fire Management Plans define what responses can or cannot be taken for a wildland fire start.

The document that defines these responses is dependent upon the agency and how 

the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) process was completed. It is critical 

that these plans are consulted whilemaking wildfire decisionsto ensure compliance

with unit guidance from the start of the incident. In some places, fire is suppressed 

at the smallest size possible; in others, fire is managed to achieve land management 

objectives. In many cases, a single fire may be managed to benefit natural resources 

as well as to protect values (human-made or natural) that may be harmed by fire. 

When a fire is burning on multiple jurisdictions, each jurisdiction’s plans must be

consulted, and the overall objectives of the fire must reflect each unit’s guidance.
USDA Forest Service Gen. Tech. Rep. RMRS-GTR-298WWW. 2013 18

As managers gain situational awareness, and a planning area is identified, they 

must also consult the appropriate L/RMP(s) to determine the objectives/requirement and define the fire strategy. Figure 4 displays a planning area containing 

multiple jurisdictions (Agency A and B, and private and state lands). Each jurisdiction involved has specific objectives, requirements and available management 

strategies. In the example the incident objectives, requirements and strategies 

may be different for the 

private and state land 

than for Agencies A and 

B, and in this scenario 

there may even be difference between the 

two Fire Management 

Units of AgencyA. The 

strategies chosen during 

the Risk Control component may be limited by 

the land management 

objectives and requirements of each individual unit within the planning area, and it may be necessary 

to segment the chosen strategies by jurisdiction.

It is critical to understand the decision space and objectives / requirements of 

each entity affected by the fire, and differentiate in the decision where objectives, 

requirements, and chosen strategies differ across the planning area. 

The Situational Awareness component is not a one-time exercise, but a dynamic, 

ongoing process throughout the life of the incident. Managers should continually 

revisit the conditions affecting the incident, and review the situation during the 

Evaluation component of the Risk Management Process. Information obtained 

through the Situation Awareness component continues to be incorporated in each 

step of the wildfire decision making process from Assessment through the Decision 

and the Evaluation components.

Figure 4. Multiple jurisdiction planning area.

Federal Fire Policy

Guidance for Implementation: A wildland fire may be concurrently managed for one or more objectives and 

objectives can change as the fire spreads across the landscape. Objectives are affected by changes in fuels, 

weather, topography; varying social understanding and tolerance; and involvement of other governmental 

jurisdictions having different missions and objectives. 
USDA Forest Service Gen. Tech. Rep. RMRS-GTR-298WWW. 2013 19

How Does the Situational Awareness Component Fit into WFDSS

On the Incidents tab there is access to the Information, Situation, and Objectives sub-tabs that 

contain information for the Situational Awareness component. A thorough examination of the 

information available in conjunction with fireline observations and past experience will 

quickly provide Situational Awareness information. Information critical to the decision 

should be captured for documentation. 

Information with an asterisk (*) is auto-captured into the approved decision; all other information 

requires user action within WFDSS to document in approved decision if desired.

Information Sub-Tab

• Fire Location and Size* • Cause*

• Jurisdictional Agency(s)* • Responsible Unit*

Situation Sub-Tab

• Interactive Fire Area Map with selectable base layers (topography)

• Fire Point of Origin

• Incident Information –

o planning area & values inventory * o objective shapes

o fire perimeters o points of interest o management action points

• Analysis Information

o Basic fire behavior o Near term fire behavior results

o Short term fire behavior o FSPro results

• Fire Related Information

o Active MODIS heat indicators o RAWS Stations

o 7 Day Significant Fire Potential 

Outlook o Estimated Ground Evacuation Time

o Fire Wx Zones o Retardant Avoidance Areas

• Disturbance History

o Historical Wildfires o Fuel treatments

• Boundaries

o Jurisdictional Agency o Responsible Agency

o Federal Admin Areas o TNC Lands

o Counties o Landscape Source

• Designated Areas

o Wilderness o Potential Wilderness o Special designations

• Infrastructure

o Facilities o Communications

o Energy o Roads and Trails

• Natural & Cultural Resources

o Air Quality o Critical Habitat (T&E)

o Other Species

• Unit Fire Planning

o Fire Management Units (FMUs)* o Strategic Objective Shapes

o Unit Shapes o Management Requirement Shapes

Info Sub-Tab

• Feature Information • Fire Danger Rating Graph (ERC Graph)

• Smoke Dispersion Forecast • Strategic Objectives / Management Requirements

• Current Zone Weather Forecast * • Predictive Services Significant Fire Potential

Objectives Sub-Tab

• Fire Management Units (FMU)* •

• L/RMP Objectives and Requirements (“Strategic Objectives” and “Management Requirements” in WFDSS)*

• Current Incident Objectives and Incident Requirements

More detailed information with technical instruction for using the WFDSS application in the 

Situational Awareness component is available in the WFDSS online help, the WFDSS 101 

material located inside the website Training tab, and at 

www.wfmrda.nwcg.gov/docs/GTR_WFDSS_Links.pdf
USDA Forest Service Gen. Tech. Rep. RMRS-GTR-298WWW. 2013 20

Assessment 

The Assessment component of the Strategic level risk management

is, at a minimum, comprised of a simple (relative) risk assessment.

More complex and long duration incidents may require a more detailed (extended) risk assessment as well as a formal analysis of potential benefits

of using fire to achieve resource objectives.

A risk assessment is the process of identifying values and analyzing the probability 

that hazards may negatively impact them. 

In the wildfire decision making process, 

risk assessment is a summary of information and analyses used to evaluate each 

of the three components of risk: values, 

hazard, and probability. For incident-level 

decision making, the incident planning area 

defines the physical boundaries of the risk 

assessment, and the content is driven by 

the incident objectives and requirements, 

management concerns, and the time available to complete the analysis for the pending decision. Decisions requiring approval within a short timeframe have less risk 

information available to inform the decision.

The Relative Risk Assessment Process

Often the initial decision necessary to guide the response to an emerging wildfire

is significantly time-constrained. It may be impossible to complete a detailed risk

assessment with supporting analyses before resources responding to the fire arrive 

and are ready to take action.In most cases, the initialresponders begin taking action

on a fire based on Land Management Plan and Fire Management Plan guidance,

as well as pre-season direction given them by the agency administrator. In the 

absence of agency administrator guidance for a specific fire, their initial actions 

should also consider fire behavior, fire danger conditions, firefighter and public 

safety, values that might be threatened, and benefits that could be obtained. Initial 

response decisions significantly affect decision space for subsequent decisions. 

For example, if initial response resources automatically suppress a fire that could 

have been considered for resource objectives, opportunities are lost before the risks

and benefits can be evaluated. Conversely, if initial responders choose to monitor a 

fire rather than suppress in order to obtain resource benefits, and the fire behavior 

increases beyond beneficial levels, it may be very difficult to quickly shift to a

protection-only strategy and avoid significant damages or threats to public safety.

When a wildfire escapes the initial preplanned response, additional assessment

and direction from the agency administrator is needed. In the short run, the best 

available information in these circumstances is a qualitative risk assessment based

on the decision makers and local specialists’ professional judgment and experience, as well as any preexisting planning information applicable to the situation. 

Assessment:	
  Analyzing	
  the	
  

collected	
  information	
  to	
  identify	
  

potential	
  risks	
  and	
  opportunities.	
  

The	
  purpose	
  of	
  this	
  component is	
  

to	
  use	
  the	
  information	
  collected	
  

and	
  analyses	
  performed	
  to	
  

generate	
  necessary	
  predictions	
  

about	
  short,	
  near	
  and	
  long-­‐term	
  

fire	
  growth,	
  and	
  associated	
  risks	
  to	
  

human	
  health	
  and	
  safety,	
  values	
  of	
  

concern,	
  and	
  costs,	
  as well	
  as	
  

identify	
  potential	
  benefits	
  and	
  

opportunities.	
  
USDA Forest Service Gen. Tech. Rep. RMRS-GTR-298WWW. 2013 21

An established tool for this early assessment is available in the Relative Risk Assessment (RRA) process used by Federal agencies as a quick, but comprehensive

assessment of the fire incident.The relative risk rating that resultsfrom this process

is intended to characterize the general magnitude of risks associated with the fire

itself at a specific point in time. A relative risk assessment does not result in a Go/

NoGo output; decision makers must still decide what level of risk is appropriate

based on the situation at the time of the decision. The RRA is a required element 

of Federal fire incident decisions, but may also be useful to non-Federal agencies 

for succinctly characterizing risks for wildfire incidents.

The Wildland Fire Relative Risk Assessment Chart is shown in figure 5. The process uses the three risk elements: values, hazard, and probability. Each of these

components is assessed independently. Then the three outputs are evaluated in a 

final step to provide the relative risk rating for the fire. As shown in figure 5, each

risk element is defined by three variables. One variable is located on the right, one

on the left side of the box, and the third variable is defined by three interior lines 

extending from top to bottom.

Values: Values are those ecologic, social, and economic resources that 

could be lost or damaged because of a fire. Ecologic values consist of 

vegetation, wildlife species and their habitat, air and water quality, soil 

productivity, and other ecologic functions. Social effects can include life, cultural and historical resources, natural resources, artifacts, 

and sacred sites. Economic values make up things like property and

infrastructure, economically valuable natural and cultural resources, 

recreation, and tourism opportunities.

Hazard: The hazard in wildland fire is made up of the conditions under 

which it occurs and exists, its ability to spread and circulate, the intensity 

and severity it may present, and its spatial extent.

Probability: Probability refers to the likelihood of a fire becoming an

active event with potential to adversely affect values.

A current version of the Wildland Fire Relative Risk Assessment and instruction

are available in the WFDSS Online Help. Users should exercise their judgment

in determining the ratings as the instructions provide both guidance in completion and flexibility in determining exactly what the descriptions mean. Local

information can be prepared pre-season to better reflect site-specific situations. 

See Appendix A for further information.
USDA Forest Service Gen. Tech. Rep. RMRS-GTR-298WWW. 2013 22

A critical component in the use of the RRA charts is the documentation of the 

methods and considerations that led to each of the ratings. Annotations should 

be added to capture the logic and basis for choosing each qualitative rating in a 

concise format; more detailed information can be appended if necessary. If preplanning or ongoing planning efforts lead to the development of additional mechanisms 

for assessing risk, these criteria should be attached to the RRAdocumentation. The

annotations and appended documentation should show careful and consistent application of the rating criteria given in the RRA instructions, or specify and explain 

intentional deviations from the descriptions and criteria.

The Extended Risk Assessment

During the life of the incident, the RRAisregularly reviewed and updated to ensure

its continued validity. In keeping with the progressive decision making and best

available information principles of risk-based decisions, the depth and detail of

the supporting analyses should increase as the lifespan of the incident increases; 

the best available information expands and changes over time. An extended risk

assessment is still based on the elements of values, hazards, and probabilities, but it 

provides more detailed and quantitative information derived from specific analyses. 

Information to consider includes but is not limited to: 

	 •	 Historic weather data

	 •	 Long-term climatological data

2 - Hazard

1 - Values

4 - Relative Risk

Wildland Fire Relative 

Risk Assessment

3- Probability

Hazard

Barriers to Fire Spread

Very High

Late Low

Numerous Moderate Few

Moderate

Seasonal 

Severity

Time of 

Season

Early

Middle High

Extreme

High

Moderate

Low

Large

Small

Low High

H

L

Moderate

M Medium

Fire Behavior

Potential

Fire

Size

Departure 

From Historic 

Conditions

High

Moderate

Low

High

Low

Distant Moderate Adjacent

Moderate

Location of Fire To Values

Natural/Cultural

Resource Concerns

Social/Economic

Concerns

High

Low

Moderate

High

Moderate

Low

Complete Steps 1 -3: Connect the 

left and right variables with a line. At the top 

of the chart, select the appropriate value; 

follow the line beneath this value down to its 

intersection with the line connecting the left 

and right variables. Take results as inputs to 

Step 4.

Complete Step 4: Read the relative 

risk from the background area where the 

intersection occurs.

Values

High

Low

Low Moderate High

Moderate

Probability

High

Low

Moderate

High

Moderate

Low

Figure 5. Relative risk assessment chart example.
USDA Forest Service Gen. Tech. Rep. RMRS-GTR-298WWW. 2013 23

	 •	 Fuel moisture data

	 •	 Fuel conditions

	 •	 Fire danger

	 •	 Seasonal severity

	 •	 Satellite imagery

	 •	 Simulation modeling.

While initial information may have adequately supported the initial response to

the fire, changing conditions and more in-depth analyses may either validate the 

effectiveness of the initial direction or indicate that a more effective course of action exists. 

There is no standard format for an extended risk assessment. The content of the

assessment is framed by the time available to complete the assessment, the anticipated lifespan for the decision, the geographic area of interest surrounding the fire 

(planning area), and the management concerns and objectives within this area. 

Tradeoffs between the quality of information and the desired timeframes are often 

necessary. An assessment completed over 7 days yields more reliable and robust

analyses than an assessment done in 1 day, but the assessment that will be available in 7 days is of little use in deciding what actions to take on the fire tomorrow.

Assessments are most useful when they are able to:

	 •	 Reasonably anticipate risks and their predicted magnitude,

	 •	 Articulate a level of uncertainty associated with the limitations of the assessment in a timeframe that allows decision makers to act effectively in

advance of the fire’s impacts.

The elements of risk (values, hazards, and probability) are useful in organizing

the extended assessment. In this process, values are those natural, cultural, and 

socioeconomic concerns identified within the incident planning area, and the hazards and probabilities refer to the fire and its anticipated effects. Hazards to fire

personnel are evaluated separately as part of the selected course of action through 

daily incident planning as specific tactics are planned and assigned.

Values Inventory: A more detailed assessment of the values affected by the fire 

incident can be articulated in a Values Inventory. A Values Inventory consists of 

a listing of all known values to be protected, their ownership, quantity and unit

of measure, and location (either as geocoordinates and/or on a map). Additional 

information might include the probability that the fire will reach the value within 

a given timeframe, and the predicted responses of the value to the exposure to fire. 

For example:

	 •	 A ponderosa pine stand identified as a timber sale may not incur substantive

damage unless flame lengths are greater than 2 ft;

	 •	 A high-tension power line supported by metal power poles may be undamaged by flame lengths less than 8 ft; 

	 •	 Ariparian area with an endangered bird species may not withstand exposure

to fire of any intensity during nesting season, etc.). 
USDA Forest Service Gen. Tech. Rep. RMRS-GTR-298WWW. 2013 24

Localresource advisors and specialists can identify and locate values and 

evaluate consequences of exposure 

to fire. Potential mitigation strategies can be included, or added when 

evaluatingriskcontroloptionsduring

the development of the course of action. A table is useful to organize the values 

inventory; an example is provided in table 6.

Table 1. Example values inventory table.

Value Identifier

Value Type 

(Units) Location Ownership

Probability 

/ Date Response to Fire

Lazy Acres 

Ranch

Structures (11); 

3 historic

47 13 06 x 

114 50 03 

Private 40-60% by 

8/3/12

Historic structures 

susceptible to fire 

damage; newer 

structures wellprotected by 

landscaping and 

resistant building 

materials

XY Harvest Unit Commercial 

Timber (96 

acres)

47 26 56 x 

114 36 30 

Forest 

Service

20-40% by 

8/3/12

Flame lengths less 

than 2 ft acceptable 

Weather and Fire Behavior Analyses: Risk assessment is based on the principles

of assessing values, hazard, and probability. The previous section addressed the 

Values component of the risk assessment. Thissection coversthe Hazard and Probability componentsin terms of weather and fire behavior.It asksthe question - How

severe is the hazard, and what is the probability that the value will be exposed to 

it or damaged by it during the life of this incident?

A discussion of current weather conditions and trends in comparison to historical 

records provides insight into the relative severity of the current situation, reinforces 

firedangerindicators, andsupportsdecisionmaking.Initialfirebehaviorpredictions

for a short-term assessment are based on short-range, deterministic weather forecasts 

encompassing 1 to 3 days of predicted weather which is the acknowledged limit of

reliable weather forecasts. Longer range assessments of fire behavior must use a

probabilistic approach based on climatological records to assess fire spread. This 

information is available from historical weather records, climatological reviews, 

research information, wildland fire assessment tools, and NationalWeather Service

archives. Regional climatology summaries and drought assessment products are 

also readily available through regional Predictive Services websites to support

Federal Fire Policy

Management Intent: Values to be protected from 

and/or enhanced by wildland fire are defined in the 

L/RMP and/or the Fire Management Plan. 
USDA Forest Service Gen. Tech. Rep. RMRS-GTR-298WWW. 2013 25

long-range assessments of fire potential. Examples of information useful for this 

discussion include, but are not limited to:

	 •	 Regional weather trends and patterns

	 •	 Area wind patterns

	 •	 Historical wind direction analyses

	 •	 Climatological probabilities

	 •	 Historical length of fire season

	 •	 Probability of a season-ending or fire-slowing weather event

	 •	 Probability of a large-spread weather event

	 •	 Severity of the current season and comparison with other significant fire

years

	 •	 Seasonal drought outlook

	 •	 Precipitation probability over defined time periods

	 •	 Review of past precipitation history.

An array of decision making aids is available to support long-term fire behavior 

assessments; a description of the more common tools and modeling outputs and 

their uses is available athttp://www.wfmrda.nwcg.gov/reference_&_guidance.php. 

The models range in complexity from the easily configured with readily accessible 

data usable by fire managers with limited backgrounds in fire behavior modeling,

to complex, data-intensivemodelsrequiring advanced fire behaviormodeling skills

and access to high-end computer processors. The choice of technique depends on 

the information needed and the state of knowledge regarding thatsubject area. The 

level of modeling complexity and accuracy also varies with the amount of time 

available to run the analyses, and may be further limited by data and analyst availability. One of the primary responsibilities of the long-term fire behavior analyst

is to determine the appropriate model based on:

	 •	 The management concerns to be addressed by the output,

	 •	 The time available for the analysis,

	 •	 The skill level needed to complete the analysis

	 •	 The availability of the necessary data.

Dependent upon the management questions or decision support needed, examples

of information and analysis outputs useful in the long-term fire behavior assessment include, but are not limited to:

	 •	 Indications of how the fire may burn; predictions of intensity and severity

	 •	 Fuel conditions, moisture conditions, departures from average conditions

	 •	 Fuels complexes (horizontal/vertical)

	 •	 Fuel treatment polygons and recent fire perimeters

	 •	 Fire dynamics – indicators of potential rapid escalation in fire behavior

	 •	 Analysis and comparison of current fire danger indicators with historical

data and trends
USDA Forest Service Gen. Tech. Rep. RMRS-GTR-298WWW. 2013 26

	 •	 Fire history reviews, records of past fires in terms of area burned and type

of fires (i.e., low to moderate intensity, surface fire, stand replacement, etc.), 

and fire history atlases

	 •	 Probability of the fire reaching critical sites and areas of concern

	 •	 Indications of where the fire may spread or the total area that may be burned

by the fire

	 •	 How fast the fire will spread

	 •	 How soon the fire may reach critical sites

	 •	 Probability of adverse smoke events and dispersal

These suggestions are neither prescriptive nor exhaustive; the products, analyses, and outputs should 

be carefully tied to the incident 

objectives and the specific wildfire situation. Some agencies have 

specific questions that are required 

to be addressed in the decision 

(firefighter exposure, probability 

of success, alternatives considered, 

and so forth.). These questions and 

the analyses used to address them 

could be included as part of the risk 

management cycle.

The intention of the risk assessment is to inform and support incident decision 

making with the best available information focused on specific management concerns and not to compile a comprehensive inventory of incident conditions and 

predictions. The extended risk assessment information is not a separate entity from

the relative risk assessment, nor does it replace the RRA in its entirety. It enriches

the information and analyses supporting the relative risk assessment. The Relative

RiskAssessment can continue to be used throughout the incident as a summary and

organizing framework for the more detailed assessment and to support other elements of the decision. Users of this risk assessment information should ensure 

that the ratings applied in the RRA are consistent with the quantitative risk 

analyses and the criteria for each element defined in the RRA instructions.

Clarifying Questions

What are the critical values at risk?

What is the chance the critical values will be 

impacted, and if so what are the consequences?

What are the possible low probability/high 

consequence events?

What are the assumptions and limitations of the 

products supporting the risk assessment, and

how do these affect the level of uncertainty in the 

situation?
USDA Forest Service Gen. Tech. Rep. RMRS-GTR-298WWW. 2013 27

Benefits Analysis

Comprehensive risk management involves weighing the risk of potential losses

against the probability of positive outcomes; the cost in terms of risk must be commensurate with the potential to realize benefits. In incident-level decision making,

the positive outcomes can be defined in terms of opportunities to achieve land 

management objectives through the management of fire. Thus, a benefit analysis 

would analyze the potential effects of fire on values identified in the Land/Resource Management Plan in comparison with the desired future condition of those

identified values. Land Management objectives that may be achieved through the

use of fire include:

	 •	 Maintenance or reestablishment of natural processes and/or natural fire

regime.

	 •	 Reduction of unnatural accumulations of fuels.

	 •	 Creation of plant establishment sites.

	 •	 Reestablishment of fire-dependent species (plant and/or animal).

	 •	 Enhancement or creation of wildlife habitat.

	 •	 Reduction of future fire management costs.

	 •	 Increased water yield.

Some of the categories of information and analysis that is useful in determining

the potential to realize benefits in the management of a wildfire incident include 

but are not limited to:

	 •	 Historic and natural fire regimes and/or departure from historic range of

variability.

	 •	 Predictions of the range of

potential fire effects on natural and cultural resources.

	 •	 Definition of the range of

acceptable effects on cultural and natural resources.

The resource benefits accrued by 

the management of the wildfire 

incident ultimately must tie to land 

management objectives through 

the incident objectives. The Benefit Analysis serves to support the 

development of the incident objectives. It identifies the conditions 

under which natural and cultural 

resources and other values delineated in the L/RMP are enhanced,

maintained, or protected by the 

management of the fire. Benefits

to resources not identified in the 

Federal Fire Policy

Wildland fire may be used to accomplish a number of 

resource management purposes, from the reduction of 

fuel hazards to achieving specific responses from firedependent plant species. (1995)

Use of Wildland Fire: Wildland fire will be used to 

protect, maintain, and enhance resources and, as 

nearly as possible, be allowed to function in its natural 

ecological role. Use of fire will be based on L/RMP and 

associated Fire Management Plans and will follow 

specific prescriptions contained in operational plans. 

Implementation Actions: 

• Fire management strategies will consider current 

landscape conditions and spatial and temporal 

components of the fire regime. 

• Incident objectives will identify resource objectives for 

wildfires managed to achieve resource objectives. 

• Beneficial accomplishments will be measured through 

specific quantified objectives.
USDA Forest Service Gen. Tech. Rep. RMRS-GTR-298WWW. 2013 28

L/RMP may be tangentially accrued during the course of the incident. However,

those benefits not identified in management plans may fall outside the scope of 

the incident’s Benefit Analysis. The analysis may also identify conditions under 

which fire may prove detrimental to the identified values, in which case, a protection strategy is appropriate to prevent damage or loss due to fire.

In most cases there are potential benefits and potential damages associated with 

any wildfire. Some potential damages may greatly outweigh potential benefits 

(loss of homes versus improvement in habitat for fire-dependent species.) Careful 

consideration of risks versus benefits is central to sound risk management. When

managing a fire to achieve benefits, managers must also establish protection objectives describing values which could be damaged and what specific action would be 

taken if conditions change and increase the likelihood that the fire would damage

them. Decisions may alter the timing, size, and intensity of wildfire; therefore,

sound and successful decision making must be based on knowledge of the area’s

fire ecology, long-term land management objectives, current fuels, and current fire 

weather conditions. These factors describe what is ecologically possible and assist in identifying ecological opportunities and risks. Short-term risks should also

be weighed against long-term benefits to avoid the transference of risk to future

generations of land managers and stakeholders.

Federal Fire Policy

Policy Statement: The full range of fire management activities will be used to help achieve 

ecosystem sustainability, including its interrelated ecological, economic, and social components.

Management Intent: Decision support process encourages strategies to manage fire to restore and 

maintain the natural fire regime where safe and possible. 

Management Intent: Local protection priorities are established in the L/RMP and/or FMP. 
USDA Forest Service Gen. Tech. Rep. RMRS-GTR-298WWW. 2013 29

How Does the Assessment Component Fit into WFDSS?

 

The information and analyses used for the Assessment component is usually a combination of 

WFDSS-generated products and the products of sources and tools found outside of WFDSS. 

Information and analyses listed below with an asterisk (*) are auto-captured into the approved 

decision; all other information listed requires user action within WFDSS to document it in the 

approved decision if desired.

Relative Risk Assessment (left menu)*

More technical information about completing the RRA is available in the WFDSS online help 

and the WFDSS 101 material located inside the website Training tab. Or go to the link 

provided at www.wfmrda.nwcg.gov/docs/GTR_WFDSS_Links.pdf

Analysis Tab

Analyst-assisted Fire Behavior Tools

o Basic Fire Behavior

o Short-Term Fire Behavior (STFB)

o Near-Term Fire Behavior (NTFB)

o FSPro (Fire Spread Probability)

o Values at Risk (as determined by NTFB, FSPro)

o

Incident Tab/Situation Sub-Tab

• See layer information referenced in the Situational Awareness section of the WFDSS online 

help.

• Much of the information needed for initial completion of the relative risk is found in the situational 

awareness step. 

• Planning Area 

• Fire Danger Graph

• Predictive Services Significant Fire Potential

• Air Quality Information

Incident Tab/Decisions Sub-Tab

Additional information may be added to any of the following pages within the decision 

sub-tab to support the considerations and analysis associated with them.

• Fire Weather Forecast on the Assessment content page* 

• Values Inventory (determined by Planning Area) on Assessment content page*

• Results of Relative Risk Assessment on the Validation content page*

• Documentation of what was considered and how risks were mitigated on the Rationale page.

Additional assessment products (for example, from FireFamilyPlus, FlamMap, Predictive Services) can be 

manually added to “Assessment Content” page of the pending Decision and links to many of those products 

are located in the left menu>Fire Related Links.

More detailed information with technical instruction for adding these external products to the WFDSS 

decision content pages can be reviewed in the WFDSS training documents or found on the link 

provided at www.wfmrda.nwcg.gov/docs/GTR_WFDSS_Links.pdf
USDA Forest Service Gen. Tech. Rep. RMRS-GTR-298WWW. 2013 30

Risk Control

Risk has been described throughout this publication as a function of 

hazards, values, and probabilities. Much as beginning firefighters are 

taught to control fire by affecting one or more of the three legs of the 

fire triangle (heat, oxygen, fuel), incident decision makers and planners can control or mitigate the incident-level risk by developing actions to reduce the hazard, 

reduce or accept the probability of the hazardous 

event occurring, and/or protect or remove the 

value of potential losses that could occur from 

the risk (USDA and USDOI 2005). For example, 

if an expensive automated sensing station used 

by a university to gather environmental data is 

within the planning area, actions to consider for 

protecting this value include:

	 •	 Building fireline to prevent the spread of

the fire to the sensing station (reduce the 

probability of fire reaching the value). 

	 •	 Removing heavy fuels in the area surround the station to limit the intensity

to non-damaging levels (reducing the severity of the hazard). 

	 •	 Wrapping the station with structure wrap (protecting the value), or packing

up the station and temporarily relocating it until the fire has passed thereby 

removing the value at risk within the area impacted by the fire. If fire spread

predictions indicate a low probability of the fire reaching the sensing station, 

managers may also choose to accept the probability, and take no action until

conditions change. 

Each of these options meets the incident objective to protect the remote sensing 

instrument station, but they vary in their cost, probability of success, and ability to address other, and often conflicting incident objectives and requirements. 

This involves developing a course of action comprised of one or more strategies 

directed at effectively controlling the risk of damage by fire to each of the values

identified in the Values Inventory within the framework of the incident objectives

and requirements.

Developing the Course of Action

A Course of Action is an overall plan describing the selected strategies and management actions intended to meet incident objectives and requirements based on 

current and expected conditions. In incident-level decision making, the course of

action is comprised of selected strategies and specific actions to achieve the incident 

objectives while complying with incident requirements. The purpose of the course 

of action is to adequately mitigate or control the risk to values to be protected, and

identify where fire may contribute to meeting land management objectives in those 

areas where risk can be mitigated to an acceptable level. The components of the

course of action are:

	 •	 Strategies

	 •	 Management Action Points (M.A.P.s)

Risk	
  Control: Developing	
  

controls	
  to	
  address	
  identified

risks, and	
  opportunities	
  to	
  

reduce	
  risk and	
  meet	
  incident	
  

objectives.	
  The	
  purpose	
  of	
  this	
  

component is	
  to	
  identify	
  

potential	
  fire	
  management	
  

strategies,	
  tactics,	
  and	
  

contingencies	
  to	
  mitigate	
  

identified risks	
  and	
  meet	
  

incident	
  objectives.
USDA Forest Service Gen. Tech. Rep. RMRS-GTR-298WWW. 2013 31

The course of action should clearly reflect the decisionmaker’sintent, be consistent

with the incident objectives and requirements, be cost effective and logistically 

supportable, and have a reasonable probability of success given the fire environment and resource availability.

Strategies: The nature of risk management involves anticipating and predicting

where the fire may move, what it may impact, and designating a strategy or strategies to minimize or eliminate those impacts. Strategies broadly describe a general

direction or method to meet incident objectives and requirements. Examples of 

strategies used on wildfire incidents include full perimeter control/suppression, 

point protection, confine/contain, and monitoring. These actions are defined below. 

Because landmanagement objectives,fire environment conditions, and values vary

across a landscape, it may be appropriate to select different strategies to apply at 

geographically distinct locations on a single wildfire incident. The selected strategies should clearly define which fire management strategies should be applied to 

specific areas of the planning area for the incident to best meet the incident objectives and requirements.

Strategies differ from tactics in that tactics are very specific directions assigned

to a specified resource or resources to be implemented at a defined location. 

For example, Bitterroot

Regulars #3 Handcrew

will build handline along 

Hurricane Ridge from the

Division A/B break south

to the wilderness boundary. 

Incident-level decisions are 

most efficient when the decision focuses on strategies 

that support the decision 

maker’s intent and the incident objectives, while tactical direction must remain 

flexible and responsive to 

shorter term changes on the 

fire that can be accommodated by the incident-level 

decision approval process 

and addressed in the Incident Action Plan. Incident 

management organizations 

can then respond effectively 

by implementing tactics 

that best meet the incident 

objectives and selected 

strategies given current 

conditions on the incident.

Definitions: Strategies and Tactics

Management by Objectives: In ICS, this is a top-down management activity which 

involves a three-component process to achieve the incident goal. The components are: 

establishing the incident objectives, selection of appropriate strategy(s) to achieve the 

objectives; and the tactical direction associated with the selected strategy. Tactical 

direction includes: selection of tactics, selection of resources, resource assignments and 

performance monitoring. (NWCG Glossary)

Strategy: The general plan or direction selected to accomplish incident 

objectives (NWCG Glossary). One or more strategies may be implemented on a 

single incident. Example strategies include (among others):

Monitor: The systematic process of observing, collecting and recording 

of fire-related data, particularly with regards to fuels, topography, 

weather, fire behavior, fire effects, smoke, and fire location for the 

purpose of determining whether management objectives are being met. 

Monitoring may be done onsite, from a nearby or distant vantage point in 

person or using a sensor, or through remote sensing (aircraft or satellite).

Confine: Restricting the spread of a wildfire to a defined area, using a 

combination of natural and constructed barriers that will stop the spread 

of the fire under the prevailing and forecasted weather conditions until 

the fire is out. This includes some actions (for example, line construction 

or bucket drops) to suppress portions of the fire perimeter.

Point or Zone Protection: Protecting specific points or areas from the 

fire while not actively trying to line the entire fire edge. Points or areas 

being protected may include communities, individual structures, 

communication sites, areas of high resource or cultural value, etc.

Full Suppression: A strategy to “put the fire out” as efficiently and 

effectively as possible, at the minimum possible acreage, while providing 

for firefighter and public safety. Synonymous with Full Perimeter 

Containment and Control. (209 User’s Guide, NWCG)

Tactics: Deploying and directing resources on an incident to accomplish the 

objectives designated by strategy (NWCG Glossary). 

Assignments: Tasks given to resources to perform within a given operational period, 

based upon tactical objectives in the incident action plan. (NWCG Glossary)
USDA Forest Service Gen. Tech. Rep. RMRS-GTR-298WWW. 2013 32

Strategies may also include non-fire tasks such as closures, evacuations, management actionsto reduce impactsfrom smoke, or the development of plansto protect

specific values such as a structure protection plan for a backcountry patrol cabin,

or a public information plan to maintain public support for management direction 

on the incident. These strategies are the direction from the decision maker to the

incident management organization to develop tactics or plans for these actions, rather 

than the specific tactics to be implemented. The decision maker can develop the

most efficient direction by selecting strategies and where they will be applied. This 

includes specifying conditions when those strategies might have to be reconsidered, 

lining out any specific mitigations needed, and then letting the incident management 

organization implement the decision by selecting the appropriate tactics within the 

framework of the approved objectives, requirements, and strategies.

Strategies may have to 

be segmented across an 

incident if the planning 

area encompasses multiple 

jurisdictions with different 

land management objectives or requirements. For 

instance, a portion of the 

planning area may encompass a land management 

unit that limits responses 

to wildfire to suppression 

strategies; this segment of 

the planning area will have 

a suppression strategy assigned to it in the course of action. Another portion of this 

planning area in a different land management unit may be authorized to use wildfire 

to achieve resource objectives; this segment of the planning area may then have a chosen strategy that allows wildfire to spread into areas where it is predicted to meet 

resource objectives.

Management Action Points: ManagementAction Points(M.A.P.s) are dependent

on specified conditions being met in the future. For example, whereas Strategies

direct the Incident Management Organization (IMO) to take action upon approval

of the decision, Management Action Points direct the Incident Management Organization to take an action or actions IF a specified condition occurs. The selected

strategy for all or a segment of a wildfire may be to use a Monitoring strategy;

a Management Action Point may direct the IMO to switch to a Full Suppression

strategy IF monitoring data indicates that the Energy Release Component (ERC) 

threshold has been exceeded at a specified Remote Automatic Weather Station

(RAWS).

In general, M.A.P.s should also focus on strategic direction rather than specific

tactical direction. The primary purpose of M.A.P.s is to anticipate conditions that

would lead to a reevaluation of strategies; the useful lifespan of the approved decision can be extended by anticipating likely incident scenarios and preplanning

Clarifying Questions

Will the strategies meet the objectives and comply with the 

requirements? 

Are the chosen strategies the only strategies that will meet 

the objectives? What other strategies were considered? 

Of the strategies considered, which strategies have the best 

balance between probability of success, firefighter exposure, 

and desired outcomes?

What are the opportunities to manage the fire to meet land 

management plan objectives?
USDA Forest Service Gen. Tech. Rep. RMRS-GTR-298WWW. 2013 33

the approved response. M.A.P.s may also be useful in reducing uncertainties in

long-range planning. A M.A.P. that preplans the response to fire approaching a

historic cabin can alleviate administrator and public concerns and allow incident 

management organizations ample time to take effective actions. M.A.P.s may also

be of use in preplanning contingency actions. In the last two examples of using 

ManagementActionPoints, theM.A.P.smay begin to incorporate tactical direction.

However, these tactical M.A.P.s must be implemented with adequate consideration

of existing conditions, which may differ substantially from anticipated conditions 

when the M.A.P.s were developed.

ManagementAction Pointsmay be triggered by a spatial, temporal, or environmental condition. Spatial conditions usually define actions to be taken when the fire

reaches a specific point or area on the ground (for example, If the fire crosses the 

Big River...), while temporal triggers define a time to take action (for example, If

the fire is still active on August 1...). Environmental conditions may also activate a 

M.A.P. (for example, If the ERC calculated from the West Fork RAWS exceedsthe

90th percentile...). Other common conditions used to activate a M.A.P. include an

undesirable fire effect, a sociopolitical issue, or a forecast for a significant change 

in weather.

Components of an effective M.A.P. include:

	 •	 Intent—What is the action intended to accomplish? Intent is usually tied

to a specific value, and should be related to the incident objectives and/or 

requirements. Intent is critical to evaluating the recommended actions in the 

future to ensure that the objective can be met under the current conditions, 

which may be different than anticipated conditions. 

	 •	 Condition—The spatial, temporal, and/or environmental situation that would 

activate the M.A.P.; the IF statement.

	 •	 Action—The planning, coordinating, and/or operational activities expected 

to be needed to accomplish the intent or objective, if the condition(s) are 

met. Examples include trail closures, re-evaluation of the selected strategies, 

ordering a higher level incident management organization, implementing a 

public information plan, notification of outfitters, cooperators, or administrators, wrapping a patrol cabin, or updating the components of the Risk

Assessment.

	 •	 Resources—The personnel, equipment, and support needed to implement 

the action.

	 •	 Time—The amount of time required to implement the action. Time should 

be coordinated with fire behavior specialists to ensure that adequate time is 

allowed to implement the action given the predicted fire spread.

	 •	 Cost—Based on the Resources and Time required, the total cost of implementing the action.

	 •	 Hazards and Mitigations—Anticipated hazards to personnel in implementing 

the action with recommended mitigations to be re-evaluated if the proposed 

action is implemented.
USDA Forest Service Gen. Tech. Rep. RMRS-GTR-298WWW. 2013 34

Throughout the management of an incident, all Management Action Points should

be updated as needed based on current and predicted fire behavior. When the Conditions of a M.A.P. are met, the Action should be reevaluated based on the current

situation to ensure that the Intent will still be met by implementing the Action, and 

that the Hazards can be mitigated to an acceptable level through the Risk Management Process at the Operational level priorto implementation.Ensure that theCosts

and Hazards incurred are commensurate with the Intent and the values protected.

Example Strategy and Management Action Point

Strategy: Keep the fire south of the Sweet Lake Botanical Area.

Management Action Point: If fire crosses north of Flat Creek and becomes established in the Sweet Lake 

Botanical Area, use point protection to protect Sweet Lake Patrol Cabin. (Intent and Condition; specific actions, 

resources, time, cost, and hazards associated with the actions would be added to complete the Management

Action Point).

Clarifying Questions

Based on predicted fire behavior, does the temporal, spatial, or environmental condition triggering the action 

allow sufficient implementation time for the actions?

Will adequate resources be available to implement the action? If adequate resources cannot be assured, what 

will be the contingency action?

If the proposed action involves hazards to firefighters, are mitigations available? Are the costs of the proposed 

action (including the mitigation of hazards) commensurate with values protected?

Resource Availability and Organizational Needs for the Course of Action

Part of risk control is to determine the required level of support to implement the

proposed course of action to meet the incident objectives. Managers must consider

local and cooperator capabilities and planning levels when determining what support is needed for the incident. If additional resources are needed from outside the 

area to implement the course of action, regional and national preparedness must be 

considered during the decision making process. The best strategies and management actions can be defined, but if the organizational structure cannot implement 

the strategy, the course of action will not be effective.

The Organizational Needs Assessment (ONA) and/or the Complexity Analysis

are used by some Federal agencies to provide guidance on the recommended type 

(level) of incident management organization based on the expected difficulty of 

implementing the course of action, the risk assessment, and management concerns.

The ONA charts are used in the same manner as the Relative Risk Assessment; the

individual elements are rated based on existing relevant information, which should 

be documented in annotations. The output is intended as a recommendation, and may 

be overridden by decision makers; the overriding factors should be documented.
USDA Forest Service Gen. Tech. Rep. RMRS-GTR-298WWW. 2013 35

Additional positions may also provide technicalsupport for the incident-level Risk

Management Cycle, particularly in long-duration incidents (greater than 3 days)

that require a more complex risk assessment and course of action. These support

positions include:

	 •	 Strategic Operational Planner (SOPL) – A SOPL is an NWCG position

skilled in applying risk assessment products to the development of complex

courses of action, employing the full spectrum of fire management strategies 

to achieve land management objectives. SOPLs are most effective when

paired with a Long-Term Fire BehaviorAnalyst to produce the fire behavior,

climatology, and fire effects components of the risk assessment and benefit

analysis.

	 •	 Long-Term Fire Behavior Analyst (LTAN) – A LTAN is critical in predicting the potential area and extent of burning, assessing long-term risk, and

validating the planning area. LTANs also predict the potential for a fire will

reach certain values that may be threatened over the long term and the potential timing of a fire-ending event. 

These positions enable robust analysis and evaluation of strategic alternatives 

and opportunities to best meet incident objectives with consideration of costs and 

firefighter exposure. 

Federal Fire Policy

Implementation Actions: Agencies will exploit the full range of fire management options to sustain healthy 

ecosystems within acceptable risk levels as identified in the L/RMP, or Fire Management Plan.

Cost Estimation

Cost estimates developed for the course of action are projections of expenditures 

expected to be incurred during implementation over the predicted duration of the 

fire based on the course of action. These estimates include both costs expended-todate and projections into the future. These estimated incident costs are developed 

from staff input, based on identified management actions and resources needed. 

The costs of all individual Management Action Points is not typically added into the 

cost estimate for the incident, as the implementation of the M.A.P.s is by definition 

conditional, and it is unlikely that all M.A.P.s would be activated. Cost estimates 

for the incident should be based on the most probable scenario which may include 

some M.A.P.s that are likely to be implemented and updated as necessary as the 

incident progresses.
USDA Forest Service Gen. Tech. Rep. RMRS-GTR-298WWW. 2013 36

A tool to assist with cost estimation for large fires (greater 

than 300 acres) is Stratified 

Cost Index (SCI) module. The 

SCI uses expenditure data from 

past fires to estimate expected 

costs per acre based on fires 

with similar geospatial characteristics and final burned area. 

Managers can enter potential 

fire sizes to calibrate the cost 

estimates to current conditions. 

SCI estimates can be used to 

compare cost trajectories to 

historical norms, analyze the 

cost consequences of different 

fire growth scenarios, and aid 

in early detection of incidents 

that have the potential for high 

costs.

For many agencies, the cost estimate is an indicator of the level of approval required for the strategic decision. Therefore, the cost estimate should be updated 

as the incident progresses to ensure that the required level of approval has been 

documented for the decision. Escalations in fire behavior and/or complexity may 

significantly change cost estimates and require approval of a new decision at a 

higher organization level.

Federal Fire Policy

Guiding Principles: Fire management programs and 

activities are economically viable, based upon values to 

be protected, costs, and land and resource management 

objectives. Federal agency administrators are adjusting 

and reorganizing programs to reduce costs and increase 

efficiencies. As part of this process, investments in fire 

management activities must be evaluated against other 

agency programs in order to effectively accomplish the 

overall mission, set short- and long-term priorities, and 

clarify management accountability.

Policy Statement (Suppression): Wildland fires are 

suppressed at minimum cost, considering firefighter and 

public safety, benefits, and values to be protected, 

consistent with resource objectives. 

Management Intent: Notwithstanding protection of life, 

the cost of suppression, emergency stabilization and 

rehabilitation must be commensurate with values to be 

protected. 

Clarifying Questions

Are the costs of the course of action commensurate with the values at risk?

Is the stratified cost index indicating this fire will cost more than the median fire cost for a similar fire?

Are there opportunities to control costs by choosing a different strategy? 
USDA Forest Service Gen. Tech. Rep. RMRS-GTR-298WWW. 2013 37

How Does the Risk Control Component Fit into WFDSS?

 

The Risk Control component is incorporated primarily in the Course of Action sub-tab in WFDSS although 

documentation of considerations may be documented throughout WFDSS (see WFDSS Assessment). There 

are three components to the Course of Action: Action Items, Management Action Points, and Estimated 

Costs; at least one Action Item and an estimated cost is required for an approved decision. Management

Action Points and the Organizational Needs Assessment are optional and located in the lefthand menu.

Information listed below with an asterisk (*) is auto-captured into the approved decision; all other information 

requires user action within WFDSS to document in approved decision if desired.

Course of Action tab

• Action Items* - Action Items are statements that describe the strategy(s), priorities, and management actions 

for accomplishing incident objectives and requirements (see Strategies). 

• Estimated Cost* - Costs may be estimated within WFDSS using the Stratified Cost Index (lefthand menu) or 

the downloadable spreadsheet, or outside of WFDSS using historic costs, the ICARS/ISUITE programs or 

other cost tools.

Management Action Points*

The Management Action Points entry screen is accessed from the left hand menu>Mgmt Action Points. Each 

M.A.P. is required to have the Condition and Action elements entered; other elements listed in the Management 

Action Point subsection can be entered into the existing text boxes as appropriate. 

Organizational Needs Assessment*

The Organizational Needs Assessment is accessed from the left hand menu>Organizational Needs. 

Additional resource needs for the implementation of the Course of Action are determined outside of 

WFDSS; the National Preparedness Level is displayed in the WFDSS title bar as an aid in determining 

general resource availability.

Stratified Cost Index

The Stratified Cost Index is accessed from the left menu > Stratified Costs Index. The SCI tool provides 

two key features to aid in estimating costs. First, users can specify up to four different potential fire sizes 

to estimate a range of costs based on different fire growth scenarios. These fire sizes could encompass 

the current burned acreage (if more than 300 acres, the minimum size for SCI estimates to be valid), the 

most likely expected final fire size, and a worst case scenario of final fire size. If conditions change, a new 

SCI analysis can provide updated estimates of cost per acre based on a new range of expected final fire 

sizes. 

A second feature is the range of estimated costs per acre reported for a given fire size, based on the 

historical likelihood of each estimate occurring. This range includes the costs per acre at the 25th

percentile, 50th percentile (the median-cost fire), 75th percentile, and 90th percentile level. Each level 

represents the percent of past fires with similar characteristics that had costs per acre less than the 

reported estimate. For example, the 90th percentile estimate indicates that 90 percent of similar fires had 

lower costs per acre than the given SCI estimate. Selecting the appropriate cost per acre estimate 

depends on incident complexity and risk potential. A cost per acre estimate within the higher range of the 

SCI may be appropriate if a fire’s high risk potential provides a clear justification for unusually high costs.

More detailed information with technical instruction for using the WFDSS application for the Risk Control

component is available in the WFDSS online help, the WFDSS 101 material located inside the website 

Training tab, and at www.wfmrda.nwcg.gov/docs/GTR_WFDSS_Links.pdf
USDA Forest Service Gen. Tech. Rep. RMRS-GTR-298WWW. 2013 38

Decision

Upon completion of the analysis and deliberation process, a decision must be made and documented, defining the: 

	 •	 Situation

	 •	 Assessment

	 •	 Objectives

	 •	 Course of action

	 •	 Cost for the incident

	 •	 Rationale.

There are times when an initial decision must be 

made even though the information on the situation 

may be limited. When additional information can

be obtained, the initial decision can be updated. 

Incident documentation on low complexity, short-duration fires is far less detailed 

than high complexity or longer duration fires. Documenting the thought process

(how professional judgment was used based on information that was available at 

the time)is critical to justify incident responses. 

Rationale for the Decision

Risk-informed decisions must tie the course of action to incident objectives and

requirements by explaining why the proposed actions are likely to achieve strategic

land management objectives and the fire-specific incident objectives. Decision rationale should illustrate the tradeoffs being made; for example, firefighter exposure 

against potential change in fire size, given the planned tactical actions. Identify 

stakeholders, cooperators, and neighbors who have a vested interest in the fire decision, their values at risk, and their support or lack thereof for the course of action.

Consider explaining if appropriate:

	 •	 Why were the incident objectives and course of action selected?

P	The cause of the fire and how this influenced the decision.

P	If alternatives were compared, what were they and why was this 

one selected?

P	The potential benefits of the fire versus risk of losses – ecological

conditions of fire-dependent ecosystems

P	What opportunities exist to meet Land and Resource Management

Plan objectives?

P	What isthe likelihood ofsuccess associated with the incident objectives and course of action compared to alternatives?

	 •	 What are the causes and influences on the incident?

P	The social and political concerns and pressures 

§	Public safety

§	Private property values at risk

Decision:	
  Validating the	
  

effectiveness	
  of	
  the	
  course	
  

of	
  action and	
  articulating

the	
  rationale	
  supporting	
  

or	
  rejecting	
  the	
  decision.	
  

This	
  component includes	
  

acknowledging	
  and	
  

accepting	
  the	
  residual	
  risk	
  

that	
  remains	
  after	
  all	
  

reasonable	
  mitigations	
  

have	
  been	
  implemented	
  or	
  

planned.
USDA Forest Service Gen. Tech. Rep. RMRS-GTR-298WWW. 2013 39

P	The stakeholders consulted before making a decision

P	Smoke and air quality concerns

	 •	 What did the Relative RiskAssessment or extended relative risk assessment

identify?

P	The likelihooda criticalvaluewillbe impactedandthe consequences

P	The possible low-probability and high-consequence events

P	Acceptance of residual risk – given the residual risks and the necessary mitigations, are the benefits worth the risk?

	 •	 What considerations were made to minimize exposure to responders?

P	Firefighter exposure versus achieving objectives

	 •	 What information was used to support the decision?

P	Fire danger, fire behavior models, assessment information, and so 

forth. 

	 •	 How was the cost estimate completed?

P	What are the costs versus benefits for the fire?

P	What additional costs were incurred to mitigate risks to values and

responders?

	 •	 What are the critical thresholds that will trigger reconsideration of the decision, and how will they be monitored?

The litmus test for a good rationale is whether someone can read it and clearly 

communicate what decisions were made and why to others such as agency 

personnel, fire personnel, and the public. 

Approval

After the decision making process and documentation is complete, a determination must be made as to what level of approval is required and how to obtain that 

approval. Agency guidance dictates the level of scrutiny needed for the incident 

decision. Although agency guidance exists, the fire perimeter and planning area 

should be used as considerations in determining who should approve the decision 

document. Units affected or likely to be affected by the fire should formally approve the decision. 

Communication of the approved decision is critical at all levels (leadership, cooperators, the public, internal audiences) to garner long-term support for the incident.

Clarifying Questions

What is my decision and how do I articulate the process and considerations in the rationale?

What information am I relying on in making this decision? How reliable is it? What are the 

uncertainties?

Given conflicting objectives and requirements, what were the priorities in making this decision, 

and are they articulated?
USDA Forest Service Gen. Tech. Rep. RMRS-GTR-298WWW. 2013 40

How Does the Decision Component Fit into WFDSS?

 

Every decision in WFDSS (original and updated) requires Validation, Rationale

and Approval in order to be published. Following these steps sequentially for 

each decision assists in establishing an efficient decision approval process. The 

Decision Review step is optional, and occurs prior to the Approval, if needed.

Validation Sub-Tab

This section is used to verify that the proposed COA is achievable and 

meets the documented objectives. Validation comments can be as 

simple as a statement supporting the COA, or a paragraph describing 

the verification in more detail, depending on what is appropriate for the 

complexity of course of action. At least one validation is required for a 

decision, but multiple validation are permitted. For multiple agency 

decisions, it may be useful to have the Authors of the Course of Action 

validate it to indicate to their agency administrator that they have 

completed the process, and agree that all applicable aspects of the 

COA are consistent with their agency’s interests and objectives.

Decision Sub-Tab

• Rationale 

The Rationale describes what information, analyses and factors were 

considered in the decision. The Rationale entered in narrative form 

on the Rationale content page of the pending decision; images may 

be added to support the narrative. 

• Decision Review (optional)

Approvers can designate one or more Decision Reviewers if 

desired. Reviewers are usually agency advisors or partners 

whose documented acceptance of the pending decision is 

desired by the approver(s). 

• Approval

Approval of the pending decision is required of all agency 

administrators legally responsible for the management of the 

fire. Comments from the Approver(s) are not allowed if the 

pending decision is “Approved, but are required if the pending 

decision is “Rejected.” Rejection by any one of multiple 

approvers will automatically begin a new decision process.

More detailed information with technical instruction for developing decisions 

using the WFDSS application are found in the WFDSS 101 Lessons (16-19), 

located on the WFDSS website in the Training tab, in the WFDSS online help, 

and at www.wfmrda.nwcg.gov/docs/GTR_WFDSS_Links.pdf.
USDA Forest Service Gen. Tech. Rep. RMRS-GTR-298WWW. 2013 41

Implementation

Once the decision is approved, the course of action is implemented 

by the incident management organization. If additional support is 

needed to manage the incident, it is critical that the information 

contained in the approved decision be clearly 

relayed in written format to the incoming organization. Most fire management agencies use a 

Delegation of Authority as legal direction from 

an agency administrator to an incident commander to manage the incident and implement 

the course of action.

Delegation of Authority

Incidentobjectives,incidentrequirements, andthe courseof actionfromtheDecision

are used to frame the Delegation of Authority. This direction for implementation 

should contain the following to ensure that the results of the risk-informed decision

process are clearly understood and implemented as approved:

	 •	 Incident objectives: The incident objectives should match those contained 

in the approved decision document. These objectives are tied to Land and

Resource Management Plan objectives and should be flexible enough to

allow for tactical alternatives to meet the objectives.

	 •	 Incident requirements: The incident requirements should match those 

contained in the approved decision document. These requirements define 

specific constraints and specifications which may affect tactical alternatives.

	 •	 Approved course of action: The course of action should match the course 

of action contained in the approved decision, and may be included by reference to allow for changes as the course of action is updated.

	 •	 Priorities: Explicit priorities assist the incident management organization in 

ranking the importance of objectives and values at risk in time-constrained

situations when objectives may come into conflict or values must be triaged.

	 •	 Expectations: Expectations include more universal requirements that have 

no influence on the course of action or choice of tactics, such as the establishment of a non-discriminatory work environment, or participation in periodic

during-action reviews.

Individual agencies may have additional requirements and direction for the Delegation of Authority.

Implementation: Providing	
  direction

to	
  carry	
  out	
  the	
  chosen	
  course	
  of	
  

action.	
  	
  The	
  direction	
  should	
  include	
  

the	
  intent	
  of	
  the	
  chosen	
  course	
  of	
  

action,	
  priorities,	
  and	
  specific	
  and	
  

achievable	
  objectives,	
  requirements,	
  

and	
  expectations.

Federal Fire Policy

Policy Statement: The protection of human life is the single, overriding priority. Setting priorities among 

protecting human communities and community infrastructure, other property and improvements, and natural 

and cultural resources will be done based on the values to be protected, human health and safety, and the 

costs of protection. Once people have been committed to an incident, these human resources become the 

highest value to be protected. 

Implementation Actions: The Agency Administrator will convey protection priorities, based on the L/RMP 

and FMP, to the geographic and national groups through an incident status report and ensure that protection 

priorities are known and carried out by the incident commander(s). 
USDA Forest Service Gen. Tech. Rep. RMRS-GTR-298WWW. 2013 42

Implementation of the Course of Action

The approved strategies become the basis for planning specific tactical direction and making assignments to incident resources. The planned actions are then

progressively evaluated at the Planning, Operational, and Time-Sensitive levels

of the risk management process. Hazards to firefighters associated with specific

assignments are assessed and mitigated, and the residual risks are either accepted

or rejected. If an acceptable tactical plan can be developed within the framework

of the approved course of action, the decision is implemented. If at any time the 

incident management organization finds they can no longer adequately mitigate the 

risksinvolved in implementing the approved course of action, the risk management

process is elevated back to the Strategic level, and a new decision with a revised

course of action is developed. 

During the implementation ofthe course of action, Management Action Points may 

be activated as the defined conditions are met. At this point, the actions associated 

with theM.A.P. are evaluated by the incidentmanagement organization.Evaluation

ensures that the actions are viable, effective, and acceptable as conditions may have 

changed substantially from the predicted conditions when the M.A.P. was created.

After evaluation the following may be considered: 

	 •	 Accept and incorporate into the planned actions for the incident. For example, 

migrate to the Incident Action Plan.

	 •	 Revise as appropriate to conditions and incorporate into the planned actions.

	 •	 Reject under current conditions. 

The date when the M.A.P. conditions were met; the decision to implement, revise,

orreject the recommended actions; and the actionstaken (if any)should be captured

in incident documentation.

Based on incident objectives and requirements, the course of action and activities surrounding it should be monitored and evaluated. This process is part of the 

evaluation component of the risk management cycle.

How Does the Implementation Step Fit into WFDSS?

 

The Delegation of Authority is a stand-alone legal document and is not contained in the WFDSS decision; 

however, the DoA should be strongly tied to and consistent with the approved WFDSS decision. 

• Incident Objectives and Incident Requirements should match in both the approved WFDSS decision 

and the Delegation of Authority

• The Course of Action in WFDSS may be included in the DoA by reference. 

• WFDSS does not have a designated place for Priorities, but a statement of priorities can be documented 

as a separate Action Item in the Course of Action Sub-Tab. 

• Expectations are critical components of the DoA, but do not affect the Course of Action or approved 

Decision, and are not generally contained in WFDSS.

The implementation of Management Action Points is documented in WFDSS. When an M.A.P. is reached, 

the incident management organization evaluates the current situation, and determines if the proposed 

actions will meet the objectives and intent; the actions are then implemented, revised or rejected. These 

decisions and actions can be documented in the “Annotation” section of the Management Action Point. 

[For technical instruction, search “Annotating a Management Action Point” in WFDSS Help].
USDA Forest Service Gen. Tech. Rep. RMRS-GTR-298WWW. 2013 43

Evaluation

After a decision is made and signed, periodic review of that decision 

is critical to the success of the incident. The timing and extent of that 

review will be dependent 

upon the activity and complexity of the 

incident. 

Periodic Assessment

The Periodic Assessment is a process for 

recurring review of the current fire situation to evaluate the effectiveness of the 

chosen course of action in meeting the incident objectives. This process documents 

and ensures management accountability 

throughout the duration of the incident. 

Establishing a timeframe for completing the Periodic Assessment should be determined based on the incident complexity and activity. Complex fire in which 

the environment is changing rapidly should be reassessed on a routine (daily) 

basis, whereas fires that are inactive would require documentation less frequently. 

Although this formal documentation may be taking place on a less frequent basis,

managers should not be complacent about monitoring the fire and updating the 

documentation as needed. 

An agency administrator or a delegated individual must periodically affirm the 

capability to continue managing a wildfire under the current course of action and 

to recognize any changed condition(s) that might require modifying or changing 

the original decision. This process ensures management accountability throughout 

the duration of the wildfire. Manager should take time to document what was considered in validating the decision by briefly explaining current conditions, issues, 

concerns, and progress made.

The Periodic Fire Assessment is completed on a set schedule. The agency administrator, through consultation with the fire management staff, establishes the criteria and 

timeframe for when a periodic assessment must occur. Such criteria might include:

	 •	 Current fire behavior such as a significant increase in fire activity (location, 

intensity, spread, acreage increase or fire effects.)

	 •	 Time of year.

	 •	 Expected fire behavior and fire growth.

	 •	 Presence of significant social or political issues.

Review of a decision or changes in the situation may warrant a new decision or 

reevaluationofinformation.Suchcriteriamayinclude,but certainlyisnotlimitedto:

	 •	 Change in significant social or political issues.

Evaluation:	
  Periodically	
  reassess	
  the	
  

situation,	
  and	
  revise	
  the	
  decision	
  and	
  

course	
  of	
  action	
  as needed. This	
  

component recognizes	
  the	
  dynamic	
  

nature	
  of	
  a	
  wildland fire	
  and	
  encourages	
  

the	
  decision	
  maker	
  to	
  periodically	
  

update	
  their	
  understanding	
  of, and	
  

response	
  to, the	
  fire.	
  This	
  involves	
  

reviewing	
  information	
  and	
  analyses,	
  

testing	
  assumptions, and	
  validating	
  the	
  

course	
  of	
  action	
  in	
  terms	
  of	
  whether	
  the	
  

approved	
  course	
  of	
  action	
  meets	
  and	
  

continues to meet	
  the	
  incident	
  

objectives.	
  
USDA Forest Service Gen. Tech. Rep. RMRS-GTR-298WWW. 2013 44

	 •	 A weather forecast for increasing spread and intensity of the wildfire, changes 

in fuel conditions, fire effects, or seasonal ERC conditions.

	 •	 Changes in fire activity or anticipated changes in Geographic and National 

Planning levels; changes in Regional prioritizations, changes in Local or

Regional resource capabilities.

	 •	 Updated Relative Risk Assessment may reveal any relative change in the 

risk that should be considered for possible modifications of the decision for

the fire.

	 •	 Updating the Organizational Needs Assessment that indicates the current

management organization is still viable or if ramping up or down the managerial oversight is required. 

Clarifying Questions

Is the wildfire continuing to meet the strategic objectives, management requirements, incident objectives, 

and incident requirements?

Has the Relative Risk Assessment changed (higher or lower), which would alert the agency 

administrator to change or modify the current strategy or decision?

Is the risk still commensurate with the potential benefits?

Is the fire expected to burn outside the current Planning Area?

Is the fire behavior modeling completed consistent with the current fire behavior, spread, and 

intensity that is being observed on the wildfire? Have any of the fire behavior or weather 

prediction products expired?

Has the intensity and spread of the wildfire exceeded the original assumptions and risk 

assessment expectations? 

Have any of the M.A.P.s been breached or threatened since the last Periodic Assessment? If so, 

were they implemented effectively and documented? Have new M.A.P.s been developed?

Is there other proximate fire activity that may influence the safety of firefighters and/or the public 

and/or influence the intensity and spread of the wildfire the agency administrator is assessing? 

Are there any other factors or issues that may influence the original decision on the wildfire, which 

would change or require the decision to be modified?

Is the current management organization adequate or is span of control exceeded? 

Is the estimated initial overall cost of the wildfire exceeded by current estimates due to an 

increase in wildfire activity and complexity?
USDA Forest Service Gen. Tech. Rep. RMRS-GTR-298WWW. 2013 45

Monitoring

The term monitoring is used 

both to refer to a specific defined 

strategy as well as an evaluation 

tactic employed by assigned resources. Monitoring as a strategy 

may not and should not be used on 

every fire incident. Monitoring 

as a strategy is tied to resource 

objectives, (which may or may 

not be used on a fire incident), depending upon the L/RMP, and/or the conditions 

of the fire environment. Monitoring as a tactic should occur on every fire incident; 

it forms the basis for evaluating whether any incident objective (protection or resource) is being achieved.

Whether used as a strategy or an evaluation tactic, the definition remains the same. 

Monitoring is the systematic process of observing, collecting and recording of firerelated data, particularly with regards to fuels, topography, weather, fire behavior, 

fire effects, smoke, and fire location for the purpose of determining whether management objectives are being met. By definition, monitoring must be tied to specific, 

measurable objectives or requirements. Used properly as a strategy, monitoring 

the fire should specify what objectives the incident is expected to achieve. As an 

evaluation tactic, monitoring data from resources assigned to monitor as well as 

other line resources, resource advisors, remote sensing, and other sources should 

be incorporated into the Periodic Assessment to determine whether incident objectives and requirements are being met or can be expected to be met. In either case, if 

objectives are not being met, the course of action must be reevaluated to determine 

its effectiveness in light of other alternative courses of action. 

Monitoring is useful for documenting:

	 •	 Observed fire weather,

	 •	 Observed fire behavior,

	 •	 Fire movement toward Management Action Points,

	 •	 Fire effects,

	 •	 Smoke dispersal and volume,

	 •	 Validating fire behavior and weather forecasts. 

Monitoring variables that are important can include, but are not limited to:

	 •	 Smoke dispersal

	 •	 Live and dead fuel moistures

	 •	 Daily weather observations

	 •	 Fire perimeter and progression mapping

	 •	 Observed fire behavior.

Definitions: Monitoring

Monitoring is the systematic process of observing, 

collecting and recording of fire-related data, particularly 

with regards to fuels, topography, weather, fire 

behavior, fire effects, smoke, and fire location for the 

purpose of determining whether management 

objectives are being met.
USDA Forest Service Gen. Tech. Rep. RMRS-GTR-298WWW. 2013 46

Monitoring frequency is based on fire activity and location. A written monitoring

plan may be useful when monitoring is used as a long-term strategy to ensure that 

objectives continue to be achieved as conditions change. The monitoring plan should 

explicitly tie the monitoring to be accomplished to specific incident objectives and 

requirements. All monitoring information acquired should be analyzed, applied as 

needed, and archived as part of the final documentation package.

Clarifying Questions

What are the critical thresholds that will trigger reconsideration of the proposed actions, and how will 

they be monitored? 

How Does the Evaluation Component Fit into WFDSS?

 

WFDSS incorporates the Evaluation component in the Periodic Assessment sub-tab for 

the incident. The decision approver(s) can select the minimum number of days between 

required Periodic Assessments, but the Periodic Assessments can take place as often as 

desired, regardless of the set interval, and multiple Periodic Assessments are allowed at 

any interval. The approver(s) (or their designees) have two inputs to the Periodic 

Assessment: the validation question and the Comments.

Periodic Assessment Sub-Tab

• Are the Incident and Strategic Objectives being satisfied with the current Course of 

Action? (Yes or No radio buttons)

• Comments

The person completing the Periodic Assessment has the opportunity to enter 

information in the Comments box. The Comments will appear in the Incident 

History. A primary purpose for the comments is to source the basis for the 

validation (Why does the decision maker believe that the Course of Action is or 

is not meeting the objectives?) Monitoring data, fireline observation, fire behavior 

predictions, weather forecasts and other updates to the assessment products, as 

well as socio-political concerns and other factors can be cited. Comments are 

required if the validation question is answered “No,” which will automatically 

begin a new decision process. 

The Periodic Assessment process is an opportune time to revisit the Relative Risk 

Assessment, the Organizational Needs Assessment, and the risk assessment products to 

verify they are still current. Fire behavior and weather analyses expire quickly, and must 

be diligently updated to remain valid as a basis for decisions.

More detailed information and technical instruction for using the WFDSS application for 

the Evaluation component is available in the WFDSS online help help, the WFDSS 101 

material located inside the website Training tab, and at 

www.wfmrda.nwcg.gov/docs/GTR_WFDSS_Links.pdf
USDA Forest Service Gen. Tech. Rep. RMRS-GTR-298WWW. 2013 47

Post-Incident Evaluation

Post-incident evaluation is important to ensure that changes brought about by a 

wildland fire, both beneficial effects and damage, are documented, quantified, 

mapped, and integrated into nextseason’s planning efforts. Evaluating the response

to a fire is critical to the unit’s success in managing future fires and continually

improving their wildland fire operations. 

The process of collecting data and information to determine if goals and objectives 

are being met, both incident and programmatically, are used as an adaptive management process for planned and unplanned actions to improve overall program 

effectiveness. 

Depending on the type of incident, information can be derived from aerial reconnaissance, photography, permanent or temporary data plots, onsite fire behavior 

assessment, weather and fuel assessment, burn severity mapping, and fuel loading 

calculations. Results from this evaluation can be shared with inter- and intra-agency 

partners.

Specific evaluation may include:

	 •	 Mapping fire severity to assistmanagersin documenting vegetation changes.

Mapping is completed post-fire using satellite imagery and on the ground to

determine the areas burned and severity. 

	 •	 Reviewing impacts of fire exclusion on fuel loading and landscape diversity.

	 •	 Analyzing burn severity within previously treated areas to determine fuel 

treatment effectiveness and whether increased protection of wildland urban 

interface zones is warranted.

	 •	 Finalizing fire area maps for future planning and updating fire history layer. 

Based on the burn severity there may be a different map used to show vegetation changes versus the boundary of the fire.

	 •	 Evaluating the degree of accomplishment of stated objectives and desired 

fire effects. 

Reviewing and evaluating the operational aspects of the fire from initial response 

through management of the incident should be conducted, as this self-evaluation 

reveals potential issues and assists the unit in continually improving the program. 

Areas that may be evaluated include, but are not limited to: 

	 •	 Initial dispatch and response

	 •	 Management and mitigation of safety

	 •	 Use of best available science to inform and support the decision (weather, 

fire history, fire behavior forecasts, risk assessment information, fire growth

simulations) 

	 •	 Monitoring fire effects where appropriate to inform actions

	 •	 Public and unit information dissemination and education
USDA Forest Service Gen. Tech. Rep. RMRS-GTR-298WWW. 2013 48

	 •	 Consistency with the land, resource, and fire management plans 

	 •	 Attention to and mitigation of resource issues and concerns

	 •	 Performance of incident management organization and support positions

Though we often think of the Incident Management Team closeout as the ritual

conclusion of an incident, all those who work on a host unit know that much of the

significant work is just beginning. How we end an incident (the degree to which

we assess and reflect on the incident objectives, planning, implementation, and 

communication activities), determines how much we learn and can carry forward 

into the next year, the next season, and the new social and ecological landscape 

created by the fire. 

Conclusion

As noted in the Introduction, the skillful management of firefighter safety, costs,

community impacts, ecological consequences, and political pressures in wildfire 

incidents requires sound, defensible decisions based on reliable information and 

analyses. It also requires detailed documentation of the bases for the decision in a 

clear, comprehensible format. Unfortunately, a good decision cannot guarantee a 

good outcome. The dynamic nature of the fire environment, the limits of prediction 

models, and the inherently hazardous nature of wildfire management activities can 

result in bad outcomes in spite of the best efforts of fire managers and decision 

makers. The quality of a decision can only be evaluated on the basis of the decision

maker’s alternatives, information, values, and logic at the time the decision was

made. Using the principles of risk-based decision making (deliberation, iteration,

progressive decisions, and best available information), as detailed in this publication will result in better informed, transparent decisions that reflect the intent and 

diligence of the decision maker.

References

Bachmann, A. and Allgower, B. 2000. The need for a consistent wildfire risk terminology.

In: Neuenschwander, l.Ryan, K., Golberg, G.(Eds.),Crossing the Millenium:Integrating Spatial

Technologies and Ecological Principals for a New Age in Fire Management. The University of

Idaho and the International Association of Wildland Fire, Moscow, ID, p. 67-77.

Calkin, David E.; Ager, Alan A.; Thompson, Matthew P., eds. 2011. A comparative risk assessment

framework for wildland fire management: the 2010 cohesive strategy science report. Gen. Tech.

Rep. RMRS-GTR-262. Fort Collins, CO: U.S. Department ofAgriculture, Forest Service, Rocky

Mountain Research Station.

Department of Homeland Security. 2010. DHS Risk Lexicon, 2010 Edition. Risk Steering Committee. September 2010.

Department of the Interior; Department of Agriculture. 2012. Interagency standards for fire and

fire aviation operations. Boise, ID: Federal Fire and Aviation Task Group, National Interagency

Fire Center. 
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Department of the Interior; Bureau of Indian Affairs. 2010. Wildland Fire and Aviation Program

Management and Operations Guide 2010. Boise, ID.

Hardy, C. 2005. Wildland fire hazard and risk: Problems, definitions, and context. Forest Ecology

and Management 211 (2005) 73-82.

Hubbard, D.W. 2009. The failure of risk management: why it’s broken and how to fix it. Hoboken,

NJ: John Wiley and Sons.

National Research Council. 1996. Understanding risk: informing decisionsin a democratic society.

Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.

National Wildfire Coordination Group. 2010. Incident Response Pocket Guide [PMS 461]. Operations and Workforce Development Committee. Boise, ID.

National Wildfire Coordinating Group. Memorandum NWCG#030-2010. Additional guidance for

communicating about managing wildland fire in light of changes in policy guidance and terminology. Boise, ID: National Wildfire Coordinating Group.

National Wildfire Coordinating Group. 2011. NWCG Glossary of Wildland Fire Terminology

[PMS 205]. NWCG Program Management Unit. Boise, ID. Web publication accessed 05/22/12

at: http://www.nwcg.gov/pms/pubs/glossary/index.htm

National Wildfire Coordinating Group. [2012, in press]. 209 User’s Guide. National Intelligence 

Operations Program. Boise, ID.

U.S. Department of Agriculture; U.S. Department of the Interior. 2009. Guidance for Implementation

of Federal Wildland Fire Management Policy. http://www.nifc.gov/policies/policies_main.html, ID:

U.S. Department of Agriculture; U.S. Department of the Interior.

U.S. Department of the Interior; U.S. Department of Agriculture; U.S. Department of Energy[and

others]. 2001. Review and update of the 1995 Federal Wildland Fire Management Policy

[Washington, DC, DOI-USDA, 2011]. A national cohesive wildland fire management strategy.

Washington, DC: U.S. Department of the Interior; U.S. Department of Agriculture.

U.S. Government Accountability Office. 2005. Risk Management, Further Refinements Needed to

Assess Risks and Prioritize Protective Measures at Ports and Other Critical Infrastructure. Appendix I: A Risk Management Framework. pp. 99-112. Washington: United States Government

Printing Office, October.

Zimmerman, T. 2001. Development of objectives. In NWCG Fire Effects Guide, NFES 2394. Web

publication accessed 05/22/12 at: http://www.nwcg.gov/pms/RxFire/FEG.pdf.

Zimmerman, T. 2011. Fire science application and integration in support of decision making. Wildfire 2001: 5th International Wildland Fire Conference, South Africa. Web publication accessed

03/7/13 at: http://www.wildfire2011.org/material/papers/Tom_Zimmerman.pdf
USDA Forest Service Gen. Tech. Rep. RMRS-GTR-298WWW. 2013 50

Appendix A: Preplanning for Wildland Decision Making

To reduce uncertainties in making decisions during an emerging wildfire, units

should compile critical supporting information during pre-season planning efforts. 

Preplanning in advance of a wildfire allows agency administrators the opportunity 

to make informed, timely and sound risk management decisions using the best

available information. 

An emerging wildfire can change in complexity rapidly and requires rapid assimilation of a tremendous amount of information. The ability to quickly access relevant

information allows decision makers to focus attention on assessing benefits / risks

and management options, instead of trying to make decisions while information

is still being acquired. Compiling critical decision-making information reduces

stress, facilitates better decisions and reduces uncertainties. 

Pre-season planning should include identifying and gathering information that 

agency administrators, fire managers, resource staff, think is important to consider

in making informed wildfire decisions. Place this information in a readily accessible location and communicate its location to appropriate staff.

The information collected varies from unit to unit depending on the various issues, 

past fire history, and changing conditions on that unit. Examples of the types of 

information that can be collected and documented are numerous, but may include 

strategic direction, values assessment, requirement and management action points, 

and miscellaneous incident support information. Additionally interagency coordination, internal/external communication and pre-season exercises should be completed. 

Objectives & Requirements

Strategic objectives for wildfires are derived from Land Management Plan/Resource Management Plans and implemented through operating or response guides.

Agency administrator and fire managers use this to determine the impacts to other 

resource areas from wildfire in the development of incident management objectives 

and requirements as well as direction for the delegation of authority. Review the 

information in this guide about objectives and requirements at for more explanation. 

Although wildfire specific incident objectives are typically completed at the time of 

the incident, in some cases, incident objectives or requirements can be pre-identified.

Values Assessment

Fire poses short and long-term opportunities and risks. At different intensities fire

may have both positive and negative impacts and understanding these various conditions canbe time consuming;thereforepreseasonassessmentisinvaluable.Develop

a common understanding of values to be protected by answering three questions:

	 •	 What is important?

	 •	 Why is it important

	 •	 How important is it?
USDA Forest Service Gen. Tech. Rep. RMRS-GTR-298WWW. 2013 51

Review the information about values inventory in this document to determine what 

information to consider. 

Describe those individual values at risk by category and the protection measures

that would be used to protect them to reduce or eliminate the risk during the management of a wildfire. Some examples of values to identify are:

	 •	 Areas where fire naturally played a role in restoring and maintaining fireadapted ecosystems, and can assist in meeting long-term LRMP objectives

	 •	 Sensitive sites andAreas of SpecialInterestsuch as;Research NaturalAreas,

Recreation Sites,Botanical areas,Threatened & Endangered species habitat,

Sensitive Plant sites, anadromous fisheries etc

	 •	 Critical infrastructure and private property: private land and structures, communities & other populated places, 

	 •	 Historic/Culturalsites,structures andtrails,bridges,trailheads,boatlaunches,

campgrounds, powerline/gas line, utility corridors 

	 •	 State Lands (Timbered, State Wildlife Management Areas, and so forth.)

	 •	 Smoke sensitive areas

	 •	 Potential evacuation needs, routes and responsibilities 

	 •	 Any other values that are not included in this list identified by the local unit

Management Action Points

After the objectives, requirements, and values information have been identified, 

the unit can begin to develop appropriate fire management measures to reduce the 

risk of loss and optimize resource benefit opportunities. These measures can be

captured in management action points(M.A.P.s)that canbegeospatially referenced.

Examples ofrequirementsthatwill assistinmeetingLRMPobjectivesmay include:

	 •	 Defining the fuelmoisture values,ERC’s, etc.formeeting desired conditions

	 •	 Determining the time of year fire may be allowed

	 •	 Considering and communicating public tolerance of and mitigations for a 

wildfire or its smoke in proximity to a value

Pre-identifying M.A.P.s to either protect values or allow beneficial fire on the

landscape can be advantageous to the agency administrator in considering options 

for managing a wildfire. 

	 •	 Identify and document management action points that have previously been 

effective. 

	 •	 Document M.A.P.s associated with values and discuss management options

and protection responsibilities with cooperating agencies to ensure agreement 

and understanding. 

	 •	 Develop Protection plans associated with these values, requirements and

management actions points. 
USDA Forest Service Gen. Tech. Rep. RMRS-GTR-298WWW. 2013 52

Miscellaneous Incident Support Materials

There is a variety of important incident support job-aid tools, templates, and information that can be compiled pre-season, to save time during an incident. This allows 

managers to better understand the fire situation and focus on time-sensitive issues. 

Adescription of fire decision making aids and their outputs and uses is available at

http://www.wfmrda.nwcg.gov/reference_&_guidance.php. Listed below are other

documents and analyses that also aid the decision making process.

Delegation of Authority Template: Develop a Delegation ofAuthority letter template preseason. During an incident the unit can focus on filling in the template to

ensure communication of the leader’s intent for example by inserting fire specific

information such as the decision on how to manage the incident, the objectives and 

requirements rather than creating one from scratch. 

Pre-season Risk Analysis: Develop locally specific definitions for each element

of the Wildland Fire Relative Risk Assessment.

Historic Weather Analysis: Define the fire season, fire ending and fire slowing

events, large fire growth factors and weather events for use when considering how 

long a fire may last on the landscape. This knowledge can help managers weigh

the firefighter exposure risks of continuing to fight a fire or manage a fire.

Weather & Fire Danger: Evaluate local RAWS stations and data - in terms of

reliability, usefulness for wind profiles, ERC’s and other information.

ERC charts: Develop ERC charts showing critical thresholds for increased fire

activity for specific landscape units to reflect the specific mix of fuels, weather 

and topography that influences wildfires within the area. 

Pocket cards: Per agency standards, pocket cards should be updated regularly for

use by personnel in understanding the current fire season’s energy release component trends compared to historic averages. 

Fire history: Documenting and displaying past fire history and associated weather

and fuels information is very useful in determining where natural fuel breaks may

be available for managing an incident, determining large fire growth potential, 

calibrating current fire behavior model runs, and understanding possible differences 

in fire spread and intensity. Identify landscape units where fire behavior might be 

similar due to fuels, weather patterns and topography.

Interagency (Federal, State & Local Government) Coordination

Most areas consist of multiple jurisdictions and ownerships therefore it is very important to establish and cultivate relationships and agree to expectations regarding 

fire management response prior to the fire season. Each agency must understand the 

abilities, limitations and concerns of their fire management partners. Interagency 
USDA Forest Service Gen. Tech. Rep. RMRS-GTR-298WWW. 2013 53

and statewide agreements and associated local operating plans govern relationships amongst cooperating agencies and jurisdictions. It is critical to develop local operating plans based on interagency/intergovernmental agreements because 

cross-jurisdictional agreements must be in place to allow fires to move from one 

jurisdiction to another. 

Build key stakeholder capacity to manage the uncertainties and inherent risks of

fires by: 

	 •	 Completing a risk analysis with interagency cooperatorsto predetermine the

response strategies for protecting values at risk while considering LRMP

goals (develop M.A.P.s where feasible).

	 •	 Engaging community leaders, local government officials, partners and other 

key stakeholdersto understand agency policy and the unit’swildfiremanagement program. Share the risk picture and enlist input pre-season.

Internal & External Communication / Coordination

Preseason contact should be made with special-use permittees (grazing, ski area

operators, cabin owners, and outfitters), surrounding communities and public, as 

well as with internal staff members. All groups should understand the fire management policy, implementation plan, and how it may affect their permit, business, 

interests and work. Discuss resource management objectives, where fires may be

suppressed because of values atrisk and where firesmay bemanaged to accomplish

those identified resource objectives. Enlist resource specialists in defining objectives 

and describing how these objectives can be met. Discuss the “what if” scenarios

to gain common understanding about what to expect and how to prepare to gain 

understanding of roles and responsibilities and how information is communicated. 

Build a public information plan that identifies outreach plans to include both preseason activities as well as during an incident and post-season. Ensure the plan 

discusses the following:

	 •	 Federal Wildland Fire Policy key points;

	 •	 key strategic direction and desired conditionsfrom the guiding land management directives 

	 •	 local key messages that the Agency Administrator wants to communicate to

other agencies and the public. 

	 •	 social media considerations or actions

	 •	 how incident information will be communicated 

Pre-Season Training Exercises

Build decision maker and key stakeholder capacity to manage uncertainties and

inherent risks of fires by engaging them in tabletop exercises or other venues.

Develop exercises that would give decision makers, support personnel, and

cooperators an opportunity to test (and improve) their decision-making process.
USDA Forest Service Gen. Tech. Rep. RMRS-GTR-298WWW. 2013 54

Exercise participants should use information gathered preseason, review agency 

policy, annual direction, and current seasonal severity and issues. Such training

helps re-familiarize everyone with the decision- making and the communication

processes before actually performing on an active wildfire. 

Critically assess this list or preseason planning ideas and adapt it to local needs and 

conditions. The goal of pre-season planning is to compile available information 

before an incident to allow decision makersto focus on the more time sensitive and

site specificdata collection andanalysis needed tomake themostinformed decision.

Landscape Risk Assessment

There are several tools and processes being developed to accomplish landscape 

scale risk assessmentsthat can be accomplished and considered priorto fire season.

These assessments can often be used for both prescribed and wildfire scenarios. A 

brief description of the tools and a links are listed below for consideration.

	 •	 ArcFuels – An ArcGIS Interface for Fuel Treatment Planning and Wildfire 

Risk Assessment.

 http://arcfuels.org/

 ArcFuels integrated a number of fire behavior models and corporate spatial 

data within a GIS framework. The system vastly simplifies spatial data

manipulations and wildfire behavior analyses for designing and testing fuel 

treatment alternatives. 

	 •	 FIRESEV: A Fire Severity Mapping System for Real-Time Fire Management 

Applications and Long-Term Planning

 http://www.frames.gov/firesev

	 	 The Fire Severity Mapping System project (FIRESEV) is geared toward

providing fire managers across the western United States critical information about the potential ecological effects of wildland fire at multiple levels 

of thematic, spatial, and temporal detail. A major component of FIRESEV

is a comprehensive map of the western U.S. depicting the potential for fires

to burn with high severity if they should occur. 

Many papers and articles have been written about processes used in evaluating

landscape scale risk. Paper citations and abstracts are listed below:

	 •	 Wildfire Risk and Hazard: Procedures for the First Approximation, Gen Tech Rep 

RMRS-GTR-235,Calkin,DavidE.;Ager,AlanA.;Gilbertson-Day,Julie,2010

http://www.fs.fed.us/rm/pubs/rmrs_gtr235.pdf

	 •	 Integrated national-scale assessment of wildfire risk to human and ecological values, Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment. doi:

10.1007/s00477-011-0461-0. Thompson, Matthew P.; Calkin, David E.;

Finney, Mark A.; Ager, Alan A.; Gilbertson-Day, Julie W., 2011,

 http://www.fs.fed.us/rm/pubs_other/rmrs_2011_thompson_m001.pdf
USDA Forest Service Gen. Tech. Rep. RMRS-GTR-298WWW. 2013 55

	 •	 Advancing effects analysis for integrated, large-scale wildfire risk assessment, Environmental Monitoring and Assessment. 179: 217-239. Thompson, 

Matthew P.; Calkin, David E.; Gilbertson-Day, Julie W.; Ager, Alan A., 2011 

http://www.fs.fed.us/rm/pubs_other/rmrs_2011_thompson_m003.pdf

	 •	 A simulation of probabilistic wildfire risk components for the continental 

United States, Stochastic EnvironmentalResearch andRiskAssessment. 25:

973-1000, Finney, MarkA.; McHugh, Charles W.; Grenfell, Isaac C.; Riley,

Karin L.; Short, Karen C., 2011

 http://www.fs.fed.us/rm/pubs_other/rmrs_2011_finney_m002.pdf

Other products for consideration:

	 •	 West Wide Wildfire Risk Assessment

 http://www.westwideriskassessment.com/

 The WWA is a wildfire risk assessment to quantify the magnitude of the

current wildland fire problem in the west and provide a baseline for quantifying mitigation activities and monitoring change over time. It can be used 

to facilitate national, regional and state level strategic planning and policy 

discussions. 

	 •	 Southern Wildfire Risk Assessment

 http://southernwildfirerisk.com/

	 	 The Southern Wildfire Risk Assessment project provides fire professionals

and other stakeholders with a set of tools for evaluating wildland fire risk

in a consistent manner across the region, with the ultimate goal of reducing 

the potential human, environmental, and property loss caused by wildland 

fires.
USDA Forest Service Gen. Tech. Rep. RMRS-GTR-298WWW. 2013 56

How Does Pre-Season Planning Fit into WFDSS?

 

WFDSS has significant national geospatial layers and real time risk assessment information available to 

support agency administrators through a deliberative risk process. Much of the information can be 

supplemented through additional pre-season planning efforts.

Objectives and Requirements -

Land and Resource Management Plan and Fire Management Plan information should be loaded into 

WFDSS before a fire starts for reference during the incident decision process. For federal agencies this 

information is loaded as Strategic Objectives and Management Requirements. Additionally incident 

objectives and requirements for certain areas can be pre-identified and kept available for use during an 

incident.

Objectives Sub-Tab

• Fire Management Units (FMU)*

• Land Management Plan Objectives and Requirements (“Strategic Objectives” and “Management 

Requirements” in WFDSS)*

• Incident Objectives and Incident Requirements

WFDSS has recently added the ability to represent LRMP information spatially which provides 

managers with more spatially relevant information at the time of the incident. (Spatial Fire Management 

Planning) This feature allows units to upload polygons preseason with strategic objective information to 

spatially represent response areas or FMUs. Additionally polygons with associated requirements can be 

uploaded by the unit. The table below describes common terms used and what how they may be 

referenced in WFDSS.

Risk Management for Wildfire 

Decision Making

WFDSS

Land Management Objective Strategic Objective

Land Management Requirement Management Requirement

Incident Objective Incident Objectives

Incident Requirement Incident Requirements

Strategy/Strategies

Action Item/Action Items: Each of the strategies selected for the course of action 

would be listed as a separate “Action Item.” Define where each strategy should 

be applied to facilitate activation and deactivation of Selected Strategies.

Management Action Point Management Action Point

Values 

There are many national layers that are maintained in WFDSS that should be reviewed before adding 

redundant information. The national layers may not include all the values that might be identified at the 

local level. 

• Points of interest can be added for planning purposes. 

• Unit shapes can be added and will show up on the values inventory / values at risk inventory. 

Management Action Points*

The Management Action Points entry screen is accessed from the left menu>Mgmt Action Points. Each 

M.A.P. is required to have the “Condition” and “Action” elements entered; other elements listed in the 

Management Action Point subsection can be entered into the existing text boxes as appropriate. For 

technical information on creating and editing Management Action Points, see the WFDSS Online Help.
USDA Forest Service Gen. Tech. Rep. RMRS-GTR-298WWW. 2013 57

How Does Pre-Season Planning Fit into WFDSS? - continued

Fire History

A fire history layer is included within the Situation tab in WFDSS and can be found in the Fire-Related section 

of the layer switcher. If a unit has updates to this information contact they should contact their agency 

representative 

Incident Support Information Fire Danger/Smoke/Pre

There are several tools within WFDSS that can be used to support incident decisions. An energy release 

component (ERC) graphs, weather forecast are available for inserting in a decision. Additionally there are links 

to smoke products, weather forecasts, and predictive services information (Situation Tab > Info) as well as 

various other sources (Left Menu > Fire Related Links).

Communication/Collaboration

WFDSS allows multiple users with appropriate privileges to view and edit the decision document and 

supporting information. This ability to review information based on the same point of reference facilitates 

viewing and discussion when users are in multiple locations. Additionally WFDSS can be projected on a 

screen to be reviewed and edited in a collaborative group environment. 

Pre-season Exercises

WFDSS has a training system that can be used for pre-season exercises. Units can build various scenarios to 

practice using the system and to gain a better understanding of the information available. 

Landscape Risk Assessment

Landscape Risk assessment information can be used to support decision in WFDSS. The information can be 

incorporated into the decision document in the following folders: Assessment: (Weather or Values or Situation) 

or Decision: (Validation) or Decision: (Rationale). Where the information is placed would be based on what 

context or portion of the decision is being supported by it. 

Clarifying Questions

Do local fire chiefs, ranchers, adjacent landowners, and special-use permittees, neighbors, 

cooperators, and staffs understand you plan to manage fire this season and how policy will be 

implemented?

Has information been preloaded in the Wildland Fire Decision Support System (WFDSS) or made 

readily available to the staffs supporting the agency administrator in making wildfire decisions?

Do you have a common understanding of values to be protected:

• What is important? 

• Why is it important?

• How important is it?

• Have you defined what type of fire is beneficial or detrimental to the identified values? 

• Have you identified where fire is beneficial or detrimental on the landscape?
USDA Forest Service Gen. Tech. Rep. RMRS-GTR-298WWW. 2013 58

Appendix B: WFDSS Crosswalk for Federal Agencies

WFDSS’s framework is based on the deliberative risk decision process which is only slightly different than the risk management cycle focused on in this 

publication. This table provides a crosswalk between the components of the cycle (left red), the activities or process (green), the tools and information used to 

support the components (blue), and the WFDSS specific elements (gray). Situational Awareness

Activity

Information 

or Tool Use

WFDSS

Sub Tabs or Process Decision Content**

§	Obtain situational and 

contextual information 

(fire situation, topography, 

weather, fuels, natural 

barriers, values).

§	Frame the decision space.

§	Consolidate program history 

and current status.

§	Develop shared vision.

§	Obtain L/RMP & FMP 

information (strategic 

objectives & management 

requirements)

Fire Danger Establish fire danger trend information, 

provide managers with indications of 

relative fire danger, and provide input to 

Relative Risk Assessments.

WFDSS Tab – Information Decision Editor 

Assessment – Incident Information – Content –

Auto-populated with info from information page in 

WFDSS and a fire perimeter map.

Assessment – Weather – Content – Auto-populated 

with the weather forecast for the day the decision 

is published. 

Assessment – Values – Content – Values inventory 

is auto-populated with values as identified by the 

planning area. Users should add information about 

priorities, probability of the fire affecting the value, 

modeled values at risk and so forth. 

Information & Tools Available 

§	Basic fire-related information

Fire Economics & 

Values 

Critical Infrastructure – Natural & 

Cultural Resources

§	Values Inventory – Immediate 

estimates of values as a qualitative 

inventory based on the planning 

area, short-term fire behavior or 

near-term fire behavior predictions. 

§	Values At Risk – Values inventory 

summarized by probability zones 

as well as the expected quantity of 

each threatened value based on 

Fire Spread Probability (FSPro) 

predictions.

WFDSS Tab – Situation

Information & Tools Available 

§	Fire area map 

o Incident

o Planning area *

o Analysis

o Fire-related info

o Boundaries

o Designated areas

o Infrastructure

o Natural & cultural resources

§	Zone weather

§	Fire danger (ERC Graph)

§	Values inventory

§	Fire behavior outputs*

o Values at risk

§	Significant 7-day fire potential

§	Firefighter Evacuation 

§	Smoke dispersion

§	Relative Risk Assessment (left menu)

Assessment

Activity

Information or 

Tool Use

WFDSS

Sub Tabs or Process Decision Content**

§	Evaluate each of the three risk 

elements: values, hazards, 

and probability.

§	Use best analytical tools to 

analyze available information.

§	Examine past performance.

§	Evaluate fire, fuels, weather, 

topographic, safety, and risk 

assessment information to 

support decision making.

Fire Weather Create fire danger products, provide 

weather data for fire behavior analyses, 

and provide data for air quality 

analyses.

WFDSS Tab – Situation Decision Editor

Assessment – Values – Content - Values inventory 

is auto-populated with values as identified by the 

planning area. Users should add information about 

priorities, probability of the fire affecting the value, 

modeled values at risk and so forth. 

Assessment – Situation* - Users can add 

information about the current situation 

Validation – Content – Relative Risk Assessment 

is auto-populated with information the user put in 

the RRA.

Information & Tools Available 

§	As listed above

Fire Behavior 

§	Basic 

§	Short-term 

§	Near-term 

§	Long-term 

(FSPro)

Project fire size probabilities; forecast 

fire progression; predict fire behavior 

characteristics such as rate of spread, 

crown or surface fire occurrence, fire 

intensity, and spotting distances from 

torching trees.

WFDSS Tab - Objectives

Information & Tools Available 

§	Strategic objectives

§	Management requirements

Fire Economics & 

Values

(see above)

Smoke – Air Quality 

and Emissions

Provides access to historic, real-time, 

and forecasted air quality information 

using a stand-alone web portal.

Continued on Next Page.....
USDA Forest Service Gen. Tech. Rep. RMRS-GTR-298WWW. 2013 59

Risk Control

Activity

Information or 

Tool Use

WFDSS

Sub Tabs or Process Decision Content**

§	Apply knowledge, processes, 

technology, and proven 

practices.

§	Mitigate risks to an acceptable 

level.

§	Apply new knowledge and 

technological applications to 

reduce hazards and risk.

§	Incorporate best knowledge 

and technology into practice.

§	Communicate risks at all 

levels to ensure mitigation.

WFDSS – Incident 

Objectives

Defined incident objectives & 

requirements and course of action 

commensurate with L/RMP & FMPs.

WFDSS Tab – Objectives Decision Editor

Objectives – Content – Auto-populated with the FMU 

list and acres, strategic objectives and requirements, 

and incident objectives and requirements as defined 

by the user on the Objectives Tab. 

Course of Action – Content – Auto-populated with 

the action items, costs, and Management Action 

Points as defined by the user.

Left Menu Items

Relative Risk Assessment 

Organizational Needs Assessment 

Stratified Cost

Management Action Point

§	Incident objectives*

§	Incident requirements*

WFDSS Tab – Course of Action

Information & Tools Available 

§	Action Items

§	Management Action Points (left menu)

§	Cost 

o Stratified Cost Index (SCI) (left 

menu)

§	Organizational Needs Assessment 

(left menu)

WFDSS – Course 

of Action

Fire Economics & 

Values

Defined course of action and cost are 

commensurate with L/RMP & FMPs, 

incident objectives, and tactics to 

support those objectives.

Stratified Cost Index – Provides a 

historical comparison of the costs 

of a current fire to ones with similar 

characteristics and potential.

Decision

Activity

Information or 

Tool Use

WFDSS

Sub Tabs or Process Decision Content**

§	Document what the decision 

is, why it was made, and 

how it supports the LRMP 

objectives and requirements.

§	Document overall processes 

and results.

§	Document practices and 

organizational needs.

§	Ensure the retention of critical 

information.

WFDSS – Decision 

Content

Documentation of decisions and 

analysis.

WFDSS Tab – Validation Decision Editor

Decision Summary – Auto-populated with summary 

information such as incident owners, costs, decision 

history.

Objectives – Content –above

Course of Action – Content – above 

 Stratified Cost – (Left Menu Item)

 Management Action Points – (Left Menu Item)

Validation Content Page – 

Relative Risk Assessment – (Left Menu Item)

Rationale – Content – Document considerations 

and decisions made that are guiding the response 

to the fire. 

Left Menu Items

Organizational Needs Assessment – can be added to 

the decision information

Used to validate whether the course of action 

meets the defined incident objectives and 

requirement.

WFDSS Tab – Decision

See notes in the Decision Content column 

describing how the decision editor can be 

used to document a decision.

WFDSS Tab – Report

Used to capture information from the decision 

editor for printing or reporting out. 

Implementation

Activity

Information or 

Tool Use

WFDSS

Sub Tabs or Process

§	Base specific tactical actions 

on the approved course of 

action.

§	Write the delegation of 

authority based on the Incident 

objectives, requirements, and 

course of action.

WFDSS – 

Management Action 

Points

§	Evaluate M.A.P.s to ensure they are 

viable, effective, and acceptable 

given current conditions.

WFDSS Tab – Objectives Periodic Assessment – Note pertinent information 

regarding progress, coordination with stakeholders 

and cooperators, significant events.

WFDSS Tab – Course of Action

§	 Used to frame the delegation of 

authority.

§	 Used as the basis for specific tactical 

direction and making assignments.

WFDSS Left Menu – 

Management Action Points

§	 Validate, activate, deactivate as 

necessary.

Evaluation

Activity

Information or 

Tool Use

WFDSS

Sub Tabs or Process

§	Continually evaluate whether 

the incident objectives are 

met.

§	Review and revise the 

course of action (decision) as 

needed. 

§	Evaluate new analysis and 

information.

WFDSS – Periodic 

Assessment

§	Recurring review of the current fire 

situation to evaluate effectiveness 

of the chosen course of action in 

meeting the incident objectives. 

§	Document new information relevant 

to the situation.

WFDSS Tab – Periodic 

Assessment

Incident History – Left Menu – Provides incident 

information such as decision dates, acreage 

changes, privileges, periodic assessment 

documentation, and so forth. 

§	Used to periodically revalidate that the 

decision and course of action. Validate 

that actions are meeting the strategic 

objectives/requirements, and incident 

objectives/requirements.

 *User added information. **Users can add information to any section.
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