U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

NAT OI NAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRAT OI N

Newport

Newport

A Tsunami Forecast Model for Newport, Oregon

NOAA OAR Special Report

Marie Eblé

NCTR Sta

NOAA Center for Tsunami Research (NCTR)

Pacic Marine Environmental Laboratory

PMEL Tsunami Forecast Series: Vol. 5

doi:10.7289/V5125QK9 
Front cover image: Overview of NOAA tsunami forecast system. Top frame

illustrates components of the tsunami forecast using the 15 November 2006

Kuril Islands tsunami as an example: DART systems (black triangles), precomputed tsunami source function database (unfilled black rectangles) and

high-resolution forecast models in the Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian oceans (red

squares). Colors show computed maximum tsunami amplitudes of the offshore forecast. Black contour lines indicate tsunami travel times in hours.

Lower panels show the forecast process sequence left to right: tsunami detection with the DART system (third generation DART ETD is shown); model

propagation forecast based on DART observations; coastal forecast with highresolution tsunami inundation model.

PDF versions of the PMEL Tsunami Forecast Series reports are available at

http://nctr.pmel.noaa.gov/forecast_reports
PMEL Tsunami Forecast Series: Vol. 5

A Tsunami Forecast Model for Newport, Oregon

M. Eble1 and NCTR Staff1,2

1  NOAA/Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory (PMEL), Seattle, WA

2  Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean (JISAO), University of Washington,

Seattle, WA

Second Edition, November 2014

UNITED STATES

DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

Penny Pritzker

Secretary

NATIONAL OCEANIC AND

ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION

Kathryn Sullivan

Under Secretary for Oceans and 

Atmosphere/Administrator

Office of Oceanic and

Atmospheric Research

Craig McLean 

Acting

Assistant Administrator

NOAA OAR Special Report

doi:10.7289/V5125QK9 
NOTICE from NOAA

Mention of a commercial company or product does not constitute an endorsement by NOAA/

OAR. Use of information from this publication concerning proprietary products or the tests of

such products for publicity or advertising purposes is not authorized. Any opinions, findings,

and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the authors and

do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Also available from the National Technical Information Service (NTIS)

(http://www.ntis.gov)

Contribution No. 3449 from NOAA/Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory

Contribution No. 1771 from Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean (JISAO)

First Edition: published March 2010

Second Edition: published November 2014
Contents

List of Figures v

List of Tables xi

Foreword xiii

Abstract 1

1. Background and Objectives 1

2. Forecast Methodology 3

3. Model Development 5

3.1 Forecast area 5

3.2 Historical events and coastal water level observations 6

3.3 Bathymetry and topography 8

3.4 Model setup 10

4. Results and Discussion 11

4.1 Model validation 11

4.2 Model robustness and stability 14

5. Summary and Conclusion 17

6. Acknowledgments 18

7. References 19

FIGURES 21

Appendix A. 65

A1. Reference model *.in file for Newport, Oregon 65

A2. Forecast model *.in file for Newport, Oregon 65

Appendix B. Pacific Ocean Unit Sources 67

Appendix C. Synthetic Testing Report: Newport, Oregon 115

C1. Purpose 115

C2. Testing procedure 115

C3. Results 116

Glossary 125

Contents iii 

List of Figures

1 Aerial view of Yaquina Bay showing the South Beach area in the foreground and historic Nye Beach along the opposite shore; detailed view

of the NOAA Marine Operations Center – Pacific. 23

2 Aerial view of Newport, Oregon. The arrow shows the approximate

location of the South Beach tide gauge used for comparison with model

results (from NCTR/Oregon Graduate Institute CCALMR archives). 24

3 Evacuation map for Newport, Oregon, developed in the mid-1990s by

the Oregon Department of Geology and Mineral Industries in

consultation with local officials. 25

4 Map of the Pacific Ocean basin showing the location of the 11

historical events used to test and validate the Newport model. Relative

earthquake magnitude is shown by the varying sizes and colors of the

filled circles. 26

5 Digital elevation model constructed in 2004 by the NOAA Center for

Tsunami Research for Newport, Oregon. 27

6 Bathymetry and topography for the reference inundation model grids

A, B, and C. The topography of the C grid is shown using contours

with 40 m intervals. 28

7 Bathymetry and topography for the tsunami forecast model grids

A, B, and C. The topography of the C grid is shown using contours

with 40 m intervals. 29

8 Difference plot showing the result of subtracting the digital elevation

model constructed by the National Geophysical Data Center in 2008

from the digital elevation model constructed by the NOAA Center for

Tsunami Research in 2004. The primary differences are evident along

the coast from inclusion of LIDAR data in the 2008 model. 30

9 Model results for the 1946 Unimak Mw 8.5 event. The upper two

panels show the forecast and reference model maximum wave height

predictions. The lower panel shows the forecast and reference model

wave amplitudes at the Newport tide gauge. 31

10 Model results for the 1960 Chile Mw 9.5 event. The upper two panels

show the forecast and reference model maximum wave height

predictions. The lower panel shows the forecast and reference model

wave amplitudes at the Newport tide gauge. 32

Contents v 
11 Model results for the 1964 Alaska Mw 9.2 event. The upper two panels

show the forecast and reference model maximum wave height

predictions. The lower panel shows the forecast and reference model

wave amplitudes at the Newport tide gauge. 33

12 Model results for the 1996 Andreanof Mw 7.9 event. The upper two

panels show the forecast and reference model maximum wave height

predictions. The lower panel shows the forecast model and reference

model wave amplitudes at the Newport tide gauge. 34

13 Model results for the 2006 Tonga Mw 8.0 event. The upper two panels

show the forecast and reference model maximum wave height

predictions. The lower panel shows the forecast model and reference

model wave amplitudes at the Newport tide gauge. 35

14 Model results for the 1994 Kuril Mw 8.3 event. The upper two panels

show the forecast and reference model maximum wave height

predictions. The lower panel shows the forecast model and reference

model wave amplitudes at the Newport tide gauge. 36

15 Model results for the 2006 Kuril Mw 8.3 event. The upper two panels

show the forecast and reference model maximum wave height

predictions. The lower panel shows the forecast model and reference

model wave amplitudes at the Newport tide gauge. 37

16 Model results for the 2007 Kuril Mw 8.1 event. The upper two panels

show the forecast and reference model maximum wave height

predictions. The lower panel shows the forecast model and reference

model wave amplitudes at the Newport tide gauge. 38

17 Model results for the 2009 Samoa Mw 8.1 event. The upper two panels

show the forecast and reference model maximum wave height

predictions. The lower panel shows the forecast model and reference

model wave amplitudes at the Newport tide gauge. 39

18 Model results for the 2010 Chile Mw 8.8 event. The upper two panels

show the forecast and reference model maximum wave height

predictions. The lower panel shows the forecast and reference model,

and observed wave amplitudes at the Newport tide gauge. 40

19 Model results for the 2007 Solomon Mw 8.1 event. The upper two

panels show the forecast and reference model maximum wave height

predictions. The lower panel shows the forecast and reference model, and observed wave amplitudes at the Newport tide gauge. 41

20 Map of the Pacific Ocean Basin showing the locations of the 19

simulated Mw 9.3 events, the Mw 7.5 medium event, and the microtsunami event used to test and validate the Newport model. 42

vi Contents
21 Results from the forecast model for the KISZ 1–10 synthetic event.

The upper panel shows the map of predicted maximum wave height

in the Newport C grid and the lower panel shows the time series of

wave amplitude at the tide gauge location. 43

22 Results from the forecast model for the KISZ 22–31 synthetic event.

The upper panel shows the map of predicted maximum wave height

in the Newport C grid and the lower panel shows the time series of

wave amplitude at the tide gauge location. 44

23 Results from the forecast model for the KISZ 32–41 synthetic event.

The upper panel shows the map of predicted maximum wave height

in the Newport C grid and the lower panel shows the time series of

wave amplitude at the tide gauge location. 45

24 Results from the forecast model for the KISZ 56–65 synthetic event.

The upper panel shows the map of predicted maximum wave height

in the Newport C grid and the lower panel shows the time series of

wave amplitude at the tide gauge location. 46

25 Results from the forecast model for the ACSZ 6–15 synthetic event.

The upper panel shows the map of predicted maximum wave height

in the Newport C grid and the lower panel shows the time series of

wave amplitude at the tide gauge location. 47

26 Results from the forecast model for the ACSZ 16–25 synthetic event.

The upper panel shows the map of predicted maximum wave height

in the Newport C grid and the lower panel shows the time series of

wave amplitude at the tide gauge location. 48

27 Results from the forecast model for the ACSZ 22–31 synthetic event.

The upper panel shows the map of predicted maximum wave height

in the Newport C grid and the lower panel shows the time series of

wave amplitude at the tide gauge location. 49

28 Results from the forecast model for the ACSZ 50–59 synthetic event.

The upper panel shows the map of predicted maximum wave height

in the Newport C grid and the lower panel shows the time series of

wave amplitude at the tide gauge location. 50

29 Results from the forecast model for the ACSZ 56–65 synthetic event.

The upper panel shows the map of predicted maximum wave height

in the Newport C grid and the lower panel shows the time series of

wave amplitude at the tide gauge location. 51

30 Results from the forecast model for the CSSZ 1–10 synthetic event.

The upper panel shows the map of predicted maximum wave height

in the Newport C grid and the lower panel shows the time series of

wave amplitude at the tide gauge location. 52

Contents vii 
31 Results from the forecast model for the CSSZ 37–46 synthetic event.

The upper panel shows the map of predicted maximum wave height

in the Newport C grid and the lower panel shows the time series of

wave amplitude at the tide gauge location. 53

32 Results from the forecast model for the CSSZ 89–98 synthetic event.

The upper panel shows the map of predicted maximum wave height

in the Newport C grid and the lower panel shows the time series of

wave amplitude at the tide gauge location. 54

33 Results from the forecast model for the CSSZ 102–111 synthetic event.

The upper panel shows the map of predicted maximum wave height

in the Newport C grid and the lower panel shows the time series of

wave amplitude at the tide gauge location. 55

34 Results from the forecast model for the NTSZ 30–39 synthetic event.

The upper panel shows the map of predicted maximum wave height

in the Newport C grid and the lower panel shows the time series of

wave amplitude at the tide gauge location. 56

35 Results from the forecast model for the NVSZ 28–37 synthetic event.

The upper panel shows the map of predicted maximum wave height

in the Newport C grid and the lower panel shows the time series of

wave amplitude at the tide gauge location. 57

36 Results from the forecast model for the MOSZ 1–10 synthetic event.

The upper panel shows the map of predicted maximum wave height

in the Newport C grid and the lower panel shows the time series of

wave amplitude at the tide gauge location. 58

37 Results from the forecast model for the NGSZ 3–12 synthetic event.

The upper panel shows the map of predicted maximum wave height

in the Newport C grid and the lower panel shows the time series of

wave amplitude at the tide gauge location. 59

38 Results from the forecast model for the EPSZ 6–15 synthetic event.

The upper panel shows the map of predicted maximum wave height

in the Newport C grid and the lower panel shows the time series of

wave amplitude at the tide gauge location. 60

39 Results from the forecast model for the RNSZ 12–21 synthetic event.

The upper panel shows the map of predicted maximum wave height

in the Newport C grid and the lower panel shows the time series of

wave amplitude at the tide gauge location. 61

40 Results from the forecast model for the MEDI7.5 synthetic event forced

by a small rupture of NTSZ B36. The upper panel shows the predicted

maximum wave height in the Newport C grid; the lower panel shows

the time series of wave amplitude at the tide gauge location. 62

viii Contents
41 Results from the forecast model for the MICRO3 synthetic event forced

by a Mw 7.5 rupture of ACSZ B6. The upper panel shows the predicted

maximum wave height in the Newport C grid; the lower panel shows

the time series of wave amplitude at the tide gauge location. 63

B1 Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia Subduction Zone unit sources. 69

B2  Central and South America Subduction Zone unit sources. 75

B3  Eastern Philippines Subduction Zone unit sources. 87

B4  Kamchatka–Bering Subduction Zone unit sources. 89

B5  Kamchatka–Kuril–Japan–Izu–Mariana–Yap Subduction Zone

unit sources. 91

B6  Manus–Oceanic Convergent Boundary Subduction Zone unit sources. 99

B7  New Guinea Subduction Zone unit sources. 101

B8  New Zealand–Kermadec–Tonga Subduction Zone unit sources. 103

B9  New Britain–Solomons–Vanuatu Subduction Zone unit sources. 107

B10New Zealand–Puysegur Subduction Zone unit sources. 111

B11Ryukyu–Kyushu–Nankai Subduction Zone unit sources. 113

C1 Response of the Newport forecast model to synthetic scenario KISZ

22–31 (α=25). Maximum sea surface elevation for A, B, and C grids. 

Sea surface elevation time series at the C-grid warning point. 118

C2 Response of the Newport forecast model to synthetic scenario ACSZ

56–65 (α=25). Maximum sea surface elevation for A, B, and C grids. 

Sea surface elevation time series at the C-grid warning point. 119

C3 Response of the Newport forecast model to synthetic scenario CSSZ

89–98 (α=25). Maximum sea surface elevation for A, B, and C grids. 

Sea surface elevation time series at the C-grid warning point. 120

C4 Response of the Newport forecast model to synthetic scenario NTSZ

30–39 (α=25). Maximum sea surface elevation for A, B, and C grids. 

Sea surface elevation time series at the C-grid warning point. 121

C5 Response of the Newport forecast model to the 2006 Tonga tsunami. 

Maximum sea surface elevation for A, B, and C grids. Sea surface

elevation time series at the C-grid warning point. 122

C6 Response of the Newport forecast model to the 2006 Kuril tsunami. 

Maximum sea surface elevation for A, B, and C grids. Sea surface

elevation time series at the C-grid warning point. 123

Contents ix 

List of Tables

1 Historical events used for validation of the Newport, Oregon, tsunami

forecast model. 7

2 MOST setup of the reference and forecast models for Newport, Oregon. 10

3 Synthetic tsunami events used in the forecast model testing for

Newport, Oregon. 15

B1 Earthquake parameters for Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia Subduction

Zone unit sources. 70

B2 Earthquake parameters for Central and South America Subduction

Zone unit sources. 76

B3 Earthquake parameters for Eastern Philippines Subduction Zone unit

sources. 88

B4 Earthquake parameters for Kamchatka–Bering Subduction Zone unit

sources. 90

B5 Earthquake parameters for Kamchatka–Kuril–Japan–Izu–Mariana

–Yap Subduction Zone unit sources. 92

B6 Earthquake parameters for Manus–Oceanic Convergent Boundary

Subduction Zone unit sources. 100

B7 Earthquake parameters for New Guinea Subduction Zone unit

sources. 102

B8 Earthquake parameters for New Zealand–Kermadec–Tonga

Subduction Zone unit sources. 104

B9 Earthquake parameters for New Britain–Solomons–Vanuatu

Subduction Zone unit sources. 108

B10 Earthquake parameters for New Zealand–Puysegur Subduction

Zone unit sources. 112

B11 Earthquake parameters for Ryukyu–Kyushu–Nankai Subduction

Zone unit sources. 114

C1 Maximum and minimum amplitudes at the Newport, Oregon, warning

point for synthetic and historical events tested using SIFT 3.2 and

obtained during development. 117

Contents xi 

Foreword

SEVERAL PACIFIC OCEAN BASIN tsunamis have been recognized as a

potential hazard to United States coastal communities since the mid-twentieth

century, when multiple destructive tsunamis caused damage to the states of

Hawaii, Alaska, California, Oregon, and Washington. In response to these events,

the United States, under the auspices of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric

Administration (NOAA), established the Pacific and Alaska Tsunami Warning

Centers, dedicated to protecting United States interests from the threat posed by

tsunamis. NOAA also created a tsunami research program at the Pacific Marine

Environmental Laboratory (PMEL) to develop improved warning products.

The scale of destruction and unprecedented loss of life following the December 2004

Sumatra tsunami served as the catalyst to refocus efforts in the United States

on reducing tsunami vulnerability of coastal communities, and on 20 December

2006, the United States Congress passed the “Tsunami Warning and Education

Act” under which education and warning activities were thereafter specified and

mandated. A “tsunami forecasting capability based on models and measurements,

including tsunami inundation models and maps” is a central component for the

protection of United States coastlines from the threat posed by tsunamis. The forecasting capability for each community described in the PMEL Tsunami Forecast

Series is the result of collaboration between the National Oceanic and Atmospheric

Administration office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research, National Weather

Service, National Ocean Service, National Environmental Satellite, Data, and

Information Service, the University of Washington’s Joint Institute for the Study

of the Atmosphere and Ocean, National Science Foundation, and United States

Geological Survey.

NOAA Center for Tsunami Research

PMEL Tsunami Forecast Series: Vol. 5—Newport, Oregon xiii 

PMEL Tsunami Forecast Series: Vol. 5

A Tsunami Forecast Model for Newport, Oregon

M. Eble1 and NCTR Staff1,2

Abstract.  The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has developed a

tsunami forecast model for Newport, Oregon, as part of an effort to provide tsunami

forecasts for United States coastal communities. The forecast model is a set of nested

grids constructed by incrementally subsampling and smoothing a reference high-resolution digital elevation model. During this process, forecast model results were monitored for deviations from those computed with the more accurate, higher-resolution

model. Validation and stability testing of the tsunami forecast model developed for

this economically important and populous coastal community was conducted to ensure

model performance and robustness across a suite of scenarios. A total of 11 historical

tsunami events and 19 synthetically generated mega-tsunami (Mw 9.3) events around

the Pacific basin were used for validation and stability testing of the Newport forecast

model. Validation results show that model outputtrack observed data within an expected

accuracy tolerance, thus providing a quantitative estimate of the tsunami time series,

inundation, and runup at Newport for tested events. In addition to robustness, reproducibility of results was verified by comparing 2009 development results with those

attained during end-to-end operational system testing performed in 2013. The differences noted in this report are attributed to the Method of Splitting Tsunami numerical

code updates made after the Newport model was developed (2004) and updated (2009).

Of greatest significance, 2013 test results more accurately compare with observations

during the 2011 Tohoku tsunami than the earlier development results. Overall, validation results combined with benchmarking show that the forecast model developed for

Newport consistently generates 4 hr of tsunami simulation in significantly less than 10

min of CPU time without compromising forecast results for all scenarios tested.

1. Background and Objectives

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Center for

Tsunami Research (NCTR) at the NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory (PMEL) has developed a tsunami forecasting capability for operational use by

NOAA’s two Tsunami Warning Centers located in Hawaii and Alaska (Titov et al., 

2005). The capability is contained within an application suite designed to quickly

and efficiently provide accurate basin-wide warnings of approaching tsunami

waves. Termed Short-term Inundation Forecast of Tsunamis (SIFT), the application combines a graphical user interface with data ingestion and numerical models

to produce estimates of tsunami wave arrival times, amplitudes, and inundation

or flooding at each of the coastal communities prioritized by the National Weather

Service Tsunami Warning Centers in partnership with state emergency managers.

1  NOAA/Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory (PMEL), Seattle, WA

2  Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean (JISAO), University of Washington, Seattle, WA

PMEL Tsunami Forecast Series: Vol. 5—Newport, Oregon 1 
The SIFT system integrates several key components: deep-ocean observations of 

tsunamis in real time, a basin-wide precomputed propagation database of water 

level and flow velocities based on potential seismic unit sources, an inversion or 

fitting algorithm to refine the tsunami source based on the observations during an 

event, and tsunami forecast models, alternatively known as Standby Inundation 

Models (SIMs).

The tsunami forecast model for Newport, Oregon, is one of 75 developed to 

forecast tsunami impact at populous and/or economically or logistically important 

communities located along the Pacific and Atlantic ocean coasts and along coasts 

of the Caribbean Sea. Situated on the north central coast of Oregon, Newport is 

approximately 210 km south of the Oregon border with Washington State and 

approximately 215 km southwest of the city of Portland. Yaquina Bay and Estuary 

form a natural divide between Newport proper and the marina district. Most of 

Newport’s residential population of approximately 10,000 (Census, 2010) live 

in Newport proper, north of Yaquina Bay, in close proximity to city services and 

infrastructure. Seasonally, the population of Newport increases significantly due 

to its popularity as a seaside tourist destination. Tourism and a vibrant fishing 

industry dominate the Newport area economy. At the mouth of Yaquina Bay sits 

Yaquina Head, on which a 28 m tall lighthouse has stood since 1873. Yaquina Head 

draws hikers and tide pool enthusiasts. The bay front area along the north shore 

of Yaquina Bay, including historic Nye Beach, is both a major tourist destination 

and home to the largest commercial fishing fleet in Oregon. Catches of Dungeness 

crab, Albacore tuna, Pacific whiting, shrimp, halibut, and great varieties of rockfish 

routinely pass through the Port of Newport. In addition, the port area serves as a 

recreational center for fishing, boating, and other waterfront activities. South of the 

Yaquina Bay Bridge is the South Beach area, where the Oregon Coast Aquarium 

is co-located with NOAA’s Hatfield Marine Science Center and Marine Operations 

Center – Pacific. The renowned Oregon Coast Aquarium draws visitors from around 

the world. Recently constructed and occupied, the NOAA Marine Operations Center 

– Pacific is homeport to four NOAA research vessels and supports additional vessels 

homeported in Hawaii and Alaska. The historic bridge across Yaquina Bay is itself 

revered as an artwork and recognized as a critical link in the Oregon coastal transportation system. Oregon Highway 101, the main roadway along the Oregon Coast, 

crosses the historic Yaquina Bay Bridge, and the junction with Oregon Highway 20, 

one of the main connections between the coast and the Willamette Valley, is just 

north of the bridge. Aerial views of Yaquina Bay in Figure 1 show the potential 

vulnerability to tsunami impact of the low-lying South Beach area (in the foreground of Figure 1a) and the historic Nye Beach district along the opposite shore 

of the Yaquina River. The Yaquina Bay Bridge spans the river mouth and serves as 

the single connecting point between the city of Newport and South Beach.

Newport supports a large population, relies heavily on tourism, and supports 

commercial fishing and timber industries, all vital to both regional and state economies. The objective of this report is to detail development of the Newport tsunami 

forecast model. This model is used in near-real time to protect the community from 

the potential impact posed by a tsunami if generated.

2 Eble et al.
2. Forecast Methodology

The general methodology for modeling tsunami impact along coastal areas,

including Newport, Oregon, is to computationally propagate tsunami waves across

a set of three nested grids (A, B, and C), each of which is successively finer in

resolution, moving from offshore to onshore. Within the finest resolution grid C,

the nearshore details are resolved to the point that model output can be directly

compared with tide gauge observations. The C grid, then, serves as the operational

basis for the National Weather Service to provide an estimate of wave arrival time,

wave amplitude, and simulation of wave inundation onto dry land before tsunami

waves reach a coastline.

Development of the operational tsunami forecast grid set starts with construction, by either NOAA National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) or NCTR, of a

relatively high-resolution (typically 1/3-arc-sec, ~7 m) digital elevation model using

all bathymetry and topography data available atthe time of construction. Data from

federal and state government, university, and private sources are incorporated into

a large spatial extent area in order to reproduce wave dynamics along the coastline for which inundation is to be computed. A high-resolution baseline set of grids

with typical resolution on the order of 2/3 arc sec (~14 m) is then developed from

the digital elevation model. Since accurate forecasting of tsunami impact along a

coastline relies not only on grid resolution but also on numerical computation, the

high-resolution grid set is not used operationally. This is because a resolution of 2/3

arc sec, although coarser than the 1/3-arc-sec digital elevation model, still requires

a significant amount of run time in which to complete tsunami wave simulation.

Rather, once developed, the high-resolution grid set, or model, is used as reference

for development of the more computationally efficient tsunami forecast grid set, or

model. Hereafter referred to as the “reference model,” the high-resolution model is

iteratively reduced in size, and resolution is further coarsened by subsampling and

smoothing to maximize tsunami forecast model grid resolution while decreasing

numerical run time. The trade-off between high resolution and computation time

presents a significant challenge during tsunami forecast model development but

is necessary in order to produce a set of grids that will meet operational requirements to provide 4 hr of tsunami simulation within 10 min of wall-clock time. For

this reason, tsunami forecast models are often referred to as “optimized” models.

The overarching goal is to maximize the amount of time that an at-risk community

has to react to a tsunami threat by providing accurate information quickly. The

process of model optimization is described by Tang et al. (2009).

Each of the 75 community-specific tsunami forecast grid sets, or models, developed and reported in this technical report series collectively represent one element

of the NOAA operational forecast capability. The complete forecast methodology

incorporates additional elements in order to operationally propagate tsunami

waves across tsunami forecast grids and provide both rapid and accurate estimates of wave arrival time, wave height, and inundation immediately after a

tsunami has been generated. Combined, these elements form the SIFT application

PMEL Tsunami Forecast Series: Vol. 5—Newport, Oregon 3 
developed jointly by NCTR and National Weather Service. Specifically, a precomputed tsunami propagation database, deep-ocean observations, a numerical model

for computation, and a graphical user interface are the remaining elements that

round out the forecast methodology.

The propagation database element consists of water elevations and flow velocities precomputed for a continuous series of 50 × 100 (km) unit sources along all

known subduction zones within each ocean basin. Gica et al. (2008) provide details

of database generation. Complimentary to the database, the observation element

serves to constrain numerical computation to the actual tsunami rather than to the

earthquake mechanism. As tsunami waves propagate across the ocean, observations at Deep-ocean Assessment and Recording of Tsunamis (DART®) and equivalent international tsunameter platforms are ingested into the SIFT application in

near-real time. High-quality, deep ocean observations from other technologies may

at some time provide additional constraints. The actual tsunami, as observed in

the deep ocean where it is free of nonlinear processes, is compared with sea surface

elevation computed solely from original earthquake source parameters through

an inversion, or fitting, algorithm. The result is an observation-constrained estimate of the tsunami source; in other words, identification of propagation database

unit sources that best reproduce the observed tsunami waves. These database unit

sources are then linearly combined to produce synthetic boundary conditions of

water elevation and flow velocities, to initiate the tsunami forecast computations.

The Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST) numerical model is used in the SIFT

application as the numerical computation element. MOST is a suite of numerical

simulation codes capable of simulating three processes of tsunami evolution: generation, transoceanic propagation, and inundation of dry land. Tsunami wavelengths

are significantly larger than the water depth through which they propagate so the

underlying physics are governed by the shallow water equations. 

The MOST model has been verified for applicability to tsunami modeling with

extensive testing against a number of laboratory experiments and benchmarks

(Synolakis et al., 2008; National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program, 2012). In

addition, tsunami forecast models developed for use with MOST have been successfully used for simulations of many historical tsunami events. In particular, events

impacting the Pacific Ocean Basin after individual tsunami forecast models have

been developed have been used to show individual and collective model accuracy

and efficiency (Titov and González,1997; Titov et al., 2005; Titov, 2009; Tang et al., 

2009; Wei et al., 2008). Comparison of model forecasts with observations at deepocean and coastal tide gauge locations, with inundation survey results after each

successive tsunami event, continue to show the robustness of individual methodology elements as well as that of the collective application. Of specific interest,

these results continue to validate the Newport tsunami forecast model for use in

both real-time forecasting and scientific research applications.

4 Eble et al.
3. Model Development

A 1/3-arc-sec (~7 m resolution) digital elevation model for Newport, Oregon, was

constructed and completed on 28 September 2004 by the NCTR. The “best available” bathymetric, topographic, and coastal shoreline data at the time of development were used to construct this model. Data were compiled from a variety

of sources, including the NGDC, the NOAA National Ocean Service (NOS), the

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE), the

Oregon Bureau of Land Management, the NOAA Coastal Services Center, and the

Oregon Geospatial Data Clearinghouse. A more detailed discussion of the bathymetric and topographic data used to construct the digital elevation model, and how

these data were processed, is provided in Section 3.3.

Following digital elevation model construction, three high-resolution reference

grids were developed. Due to the limited extent of the 1/3-arc-sec digital elevation model, only the highest-resolution C grid was developed from this grid. The

larger but coarser A and B grids were developed independently using data further

discussed in Section 3.3. Once developed, the reference grids were duplicated and

then iteratively subsampled. At each coarsening iteration, results were compared

with those from the reference model and with observations to ensure that forecast model results remained consistent with the reference model, and that both

retained accuracy sufficient for operational use. The resultant set of subsampled

grids, the Newport tsunami forecast model, was tested for stability and performance on both the developer server and through the operational SIFT forecast

system. Upon testing completion, the Newport tsunami forecast model was transitioned to the National Weather Service for incorporation into NOAA’s two Tsunami

Warning Centers in Hawaii and Alaska. Specifics of the Newport tsunami forecast

model development and testing results are discussed in Section 4 of this report.

3.1 Forecast area

Newport is a city located on the west coast of the continental U.S. along the north

central coast of Oregon. The population center of the city lies to the north of the

Yaquina Estuary formed at the mouth of the Yaquina River, where the river flows

into the Pacific Ocean. The region that includes Newport is dominated by the river

and its network of tributaries. Newport and the city of Toledo, ~24 km upriver,

are the sole incorporated cities within the watershed (http://oregonexplorer.info/

northcoast/NorthCoastWatersheds/YaquinaWatershed). Due to a large marsh, the

estuary is an important breeding ground and habitat for a large variety of waterfowl and migratory birds (Oregon Coast Aquarium, 2010). As shown in Figure 2, 

this geomorphology poses a challenge for ensuring the well being of the populace

and protecting the infrastructure so vitally important to the local and state economies. An evacuation map developed from hazard assessment modeling for the

southern portion of Newport by the Oregon Department of Geology and Mineral

Industries, shown in Figure 3, graphically shows this challenge.

PMEL Tsunami Forecast Series: Vol. 5—Newport, Oregon 5 
The Yaquina Estuary is closely coupled with the Pacific Ocean offshore of

Newport. The estuarine area is approximately 4329 acres, with the contributing watershed calculated to be 655 square km (Audubon Society of Portland,

2014). Geographically, a narrow channel connects the main inland portion of the

estuary with the Pacific Ocean. Multiple embayments and channels distinguish

the estuary from the upstream Yaquina River. The tidal influence is large and

typically extends to river mile 26. The Oregon Coastal Management program has

classified the estuary as a deep draft estuary, with jetties and a main channel that

are both maintained. A channel depth of approximately 7 m is maintained by the

USACE to ensure commercial and recreational watercraft navigation. The large

extent of waterways and estuarine environments provides numerous pathways for

tsunami impact along the Newport and South Beach coast, so care was taken to

represent these within the limits of resolution during development of the Newport

tsunami forecast model.

3.2 Historical events and coastal water level observations

The city of Newport does not contain within its boundaries a dedicated water level

sensor. Instead, NOS established a tide gauge station at South Beach on the Yaquina

River in 1967. Maintenance and usage considerations over the years resulted in

relocation, and, in December 1990, the currently occupied tide gauge location of

124.04167°W longitude, 44.6250°N latitude was established. Along with physical

location, hardware and software have been updated over the years. Changes in

sampling interval have resulted in dissemination of increasingly higher-resolution

data for use by operational staff and researchers. The once commonly reported

6 min sampling interval was decreased to 1 min. A secondary unit additionally

provides 15 sec data upon manual interrogation of tide gauges at most Pacific

Basin locations and those at specific Atlantic and Caribbean locations. Reporting

of a tide gauge or other water level sensor has also undergone revision over the

years. Historically, the electronics housing location alone was recorded and served

as the published location for the tide gauge sensor. At some locations, however, the

tide gauge and electronics housing are separated by as much as 100 m or more,

so NOS now accurately records the position of both the tide gauge and the electronics housing obtained separately from GPS fixes. The South Beach water level

sensor and electronics are in close proximity of one another, and so occupy the

same tsunami forecast model grid unit. At this tide gauge location, mean water

level is recorded to be 2.8 m and mean high water recorded at 3.8 m. The average

tidal excursion is recorded as 1.9 m.

Tsunami water level data were available for validation of the Newport tsunami

forecast model during 6 of 11 historical events chosen for testing. All 11 events are

listed in Table 1. Events were chosen to maximize representation of basin-wide

seismic sources and to balance earthquake magnitude range with observation

availability. Event epicenters, therefore, are distributed around the Pacific Basin,

as shown graphically in Figure 4. Before validation of the tsunami forecast model

predicted water level time series, the observed time series was quality controlled.

Outliers exceeding six standard deviations from a running mean were first eliminated from the entire tsunami event portion of the time series. The tidal signal that

dominates each record was then removed by filtering. A 3 hr (180 min) low-pass

6 Eble et al.
Table 1: Historical events used for Newport, Oregon, to validate the tsunami forecast model.

Earthquake / Seismic Model

Event

USGS 

Date Time (UTC) 

Epicenter

CMT 

Date Time 

(UTC) Centroid

Magnitude 

Mw

Tsunami 

Magnitude1 Subduction Zone Tsunami Source

1946 Unimak 01 Apr 12:28:56

52.75°N 163.50°W

28.5 8.5 Aleutian-Alaska-Cascadia (ACSZ) 7.5 × b23 + 19.7 × b24 + 3.7 × b25

1960 Chile 22 May 19:11:14

338.29°S 74.50°W

49.5 Central-South America (CSSZ) Kanamori and Cipar (1974)

1964 Alaska 28 Mar 03:36:00

361.02°N 147.65°W

39.2 9.0 Aleutian-Alaska-Cascadia (ACSZ) a34 × 15.4 + a35 × 19.4 + z34 × 48.3 +

b34 × 18.3 + b35 × 15.1

1994 East Kuril 04 Oct 13:22:58

43.73°N 147.321°E

04 Oct 13:23:28.5

43.60°N 147.63°E

58.3 8.1 Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-MarianaYap (KISZ) 9.0 × a20

1996 Andreanof 10 Jun 04:03:35

51.56°N 175.39°W

10 Jun 04:04:03.4

51.10°N

177.410°W

57.9 7.8 Aleutian-Alaska-Cascadia (ACSZ) 2.40 × a15 + 0.80 × b16

2006 Tonga 03 May 15:26:39

20.13°S 174.161°W

03 May 15:27:03.7

20.39°S 173.47°W

58.0 8.0 New Zealand-Kermadec-Tonga (NTSZ) 6.6 × b29

2006 Kuril 15 Nov 11:14:16

46.607°N

153.230°E

15 Nov 11:15:08

46.71°N 154.33°E

58.3 8.1 Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-MarianaYap (KISZ) 64 × a12 + 0.5 × b12 + 2 × a13 + 1.5 × b13

2007 Kuril 13 Jan 04:23:20

46.272°N

154.455°E

13 Jan 04:23:48.1

46.17°N 154.80°E

58.1 7.9 Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-MarianaYap (KISZ) -3.64 × b13

2007 Solomon 01 Apr 20:39:56

8.481°S 156.978°E

01 Apr 20:40:38.9

7.76°S 156.34°E

38.1 8.2 New Britain-Solomons-Vanuatu

(NVSZ)

12.0 × b10

2009 Samoa 29 Sep 17:48:10

15.509°S

172.034°W

29 Sep 17:48:26.8

15.13°S 171.97°W

58.1 8.1 New Zealand-Kermadec-Tonga (NTSZ) 63.96 × a34 + 3.96 × b34

2010 Chile 27 Feb 06:34:14

35.909°S 72.733°W

27 Feb 06:35:15.4

35.95°S 73.15°W

58.8 8.8 Central-South America (CSSZ) 6a88 × 17.24 + a90 × 8.82 +

b88 × 11.86 + b89 × 18.39 +b90 × 16.75 + z88 × 20.78 + z90 × 7.06

1 Preliminary source – derived from source and deep-ocean observations2 López and Okal (2006)3 United States Geological Survey (USGS)4 Kanamori and Cipar (1974)5 Centroid Moment Tensor6 Tsunami source was obtained in real time and applied to the forecast

PMEL Tsunami ForecastSeries: Vol. 5—Newport, Oregon 7 
filter was applied to eliminate non-tidal frequencies. An 8 min low-pass filter was

applied to eliminate background noise, the source of which is due to a combination

of ambient environmental and instrumental characteristics. During some events,

15 sec data were available due to hardware upgrade so were uploaded directly from

the South Beach tide gauge secondary unit by manually interrogating the unit

via modem technology. These 15 sec data were decimated, or subsampled, after

filtering to 1 min ΔT for direct comparison with predictions, provided at a 1 min

interval consistently for all of the events.

3.3 Bathymetry and topography

Accurate bathymetry and topography are crucial for development of the reference

and forecast models, especially for predicting inundation of the nearshore environment. Ideally, the digital elevation model serves as the basis for each of the three

nested grids, A, B, and C. In some regions, however, the digital elevation model

does not encompass all three of the desired grid extents, so A and possibly B grids

need to be constructed separately. The extent of the 1/3-arc-sec merged bathymetric and topographic digital elevation model constructed for Newport included

only the C grid. Specific to digital elevation model and C-grid development, data

sources include 5 m Aircraft Laser/GPS Mapping Light Detection and Ranging

(LIDAR) data from the USGS National Elevation Dataset and Digital Orthophoto Quads from NOS hydrographic surveys. Hydrographic surveys conducted

in 1927, 1928, and 1953 from the NOAA NGDC Geophysical Data Management

System (GEODAS) and USACE datasets consisting of surveys in 2002, 2003, and

2004 were used for development. More accurate data collected later superseded

older dataset segments in overlapping areas. The primary limiting factors during

construction were scale, age, and resolution of the surveys. Each dataset went

through a stringent quality-control procedure by respective originators prior to

dissemination. Topographic datasets were analyzed individually and in relation to

one another. Vegetation and man-made structures were removed from LIDAR data

by visual analysis with orthophotos. The bathymetric and topographic grids were

merged into a single grid referenced in the vertical to the U.S. base elevation standard, the North American Vertical Datum of 1988 (NAVD88), and to the North

American Datum 1983 in the horizontal. The vertical datum was subsequently

adjusted to mean high water by using an average based on tide gauge observations

within the grid extent. The resultant digital elevation model, shown in Figure 5, 

has an extent of latitude 44.7000–44.5400°N, longitude 124.0000–124.1500°W.

Latitudinally, the grid has an even spacing of 61.8 m, or 2.0 arc sec. The longitudinal spacing is also even, but the delta is ~58.7 m, or 2.7 arc sec. The central grid

position is latitude 44.6170°N; longitude 124.0670°W. The grid in Environmental

Systems Research Institute ArcGIS raster format is available for download from

either the NGDC or from the Oregon Department of Geology web sites. For the A

and B grids, the best data available in 2004 were gathered for Newport and vicinity

in order to increase the extents necessary to encompass the larger B grid and the

regional A grid. A 6-arc-sec Oregon coast grid and a 36-arc-sec Pacific Northwest

grid were combined, resampled, and error-checked to extend the domain for the

desired grid extents.

8 Eble et al.
The reference model was designed to encompass a large region. Extending

from south of Vancouver Island and the Strait of Juan de Fuca to the southern

geographical boundary of Oregon, the A grid covers a sizable geographic region.

The offshore extent reaches a maximum depth of 4000 m. The reference B grid

extends from southwest Washington in the north to Waldport, Oregon, in the

south. Offshore, the B grid extends to a maximum depth of 500 m. The reference

C grid extends from Seaside, Oregon, in the north, to just north of Ona Beach State

Park, Oregon. The maximum offshore depth within the reference C grid is 60 m. In

order to expedite tsunami forecasts for operational use, the latitudinal extents of

each grid were reduced. The A grid northern boundary was moved from Vancouver

Island to southwest Washington, and the B grid was clipped along the its northern

boundary. The northern extent of southwest Washington was relocated south to

Seaside, Oregon. For both A and B grids, resolution and maximum offshore depth

remained the same as that of the corresponding reference grid. In order to compute

inundation within required time limits, the forecast model C grid was geographically reduced and the resolution was decreased from 1/3 arc sec to 2.7 arc sec in

the x direction (longitude) and 2.0 arc sec in y (latitude). The final extents of the

Newport tsunami forecast model grids are as follows. The A grid extends from

latitude 43.99–45.99°N and longitude 123.00–127.00°W. In latitude, the grid is an

evenly spaced 1113.2 m, equating to 36.0 arc sec. In longitude, the grid is again

evenly spaced with an interval of ~790 m, equating to 36.0 arc sec. The extent of

the B grid is 44.45–44.80°N latitude, 123.95–124.30°W longitude. The spacing of

this grid in latitude is an even 185.6 m, or 6 arc sec. In longitude, the grid is again

evenly spaced with an interval of ~132 m, or 6 arc sec. The grid extents for both

the Newport reference and tsunami forecast models are summarized in Table 2. 

In addition, all extents are shown graphically in Figures 6 and 7.

In 2008, the NGDC completed construction of a central Oregon digital elevation model that included Newport. For the most part, bathymetric, topographic, and

shoreline data incorporated into this 2008 digital elevation model overlap with data

listed above and used in construction of the 2004 digital elevation model by the

NCTR. The 2008 model, however, included LIDAR data acquired along the Newport

shoreline after 2004. The LIDAR survey extensively covered the coastline along the

full extent of the grid so represented a significant source of new data. The vertical

datum, or base elevation reference point, for each digital elevation model is the same

NAVD88. Carignan et al. (2009) provide details of the Central Oregon digital elevation model constructed by the NGDC.

The differences between the digital elevation model constructed by the NCTR

in 2004 and that constructed by the NGDC in 2008 were examined to determine if

redevelopment of the tsunami forecast model was warranted. The differences, shown

graphically in Figure 8, are confined to the shoreline where LIDAR data were

added in 2008. Specifically, the 2008 digital elevation model shows laser pulse light

particle scatter returns that reflect coastal vegetation. The 2008 grid, therefore, was

not corrected to bare earth, so the 2004 digital elevation model remains an appropriate basis for tsunami forecast model development. Therefore, redevelopment of

the tsunami forecast model using the 2008 digital elevation model is not warranted

at the time of this Newport tsunami forecast model report publication.

PMEL Tsunami Forecast Series: Vol. 5—Newport, Oregon 9 
3.4 Model setup

The MOST suite of numerical codes is used in forecast model development and

operationally to provide an estimate of tsunami amplitude, first wave arrival

time, and inundation of normally dry land (Titov and González, 1997; Synolakis et 

al., 2007; Tang et al., 2009). MOST is a finite difference method that takes input

from a precomputed propagation-run database and, subsequently, via a series of

nested grids, resolves the nearshore bathymetry and topography to provide forecasts at coastal locations. Adjustable parameters, including time step interval

and number, nearshore wet/dry boundary depth, coarse wet/dry boundary depth,

friction (Manning roughness coefficient), output time, grid size, grid resolution,

and grid position, provide location-specific flexibility throughout forecast model

development. Once tested, these parameters remain fixed from run to run, under

the assumption that the parameters and features are likely location-dependent.

Specifically, each location possesses unique bathymetric and topographic characteristics that must be adequately accounted for. The set of model parameters

used for the Newport reference and forecast models are provided in Table 2 along

with grid extents, previously described. The actual run files for each are given in

Appendix A. 

Reference Model Forecast Model

Grid Region

Coverage

Lat [°N]

Lon [°W]

Cell 

Size 

["]

nx

×

ny

Time

Step

[sec]

Coverage

Lat [°N]

Lon [°W]

Cell 

Size 

["]

nx

×

ny

Time

Step

[sec]

A San Juan de Fuca 48.99–43.0

128–123.01

36×36 500×600 3.6 45.99–43.99

127–123

36×36 401×201 2.7

B Central Oregon 45.889–44.360

124.5–123.5

6×6 600×918 1.8 44.797–44.448

124.3–123.952

6×6 210×210 2.7

C Newport 44.700–44.540

124.150–124.0

1.35×1.33 405×432 0.6 44.660–44.5402

124.12–124.001

2.7×2 162×216 2.7

Minimum offshore depth [m]

Water depth for dry land [m]

Friction coefficient (n2)

CPU time for a 4 hr simulation

5

0.1

0.0009

87 min

5

0.1

0.0009

87 min

Computations were performed on a single Intel Xeon processor at 3.6 GHz, Dell PowerEdge 1850.

Table 2: MOST setup of the reference and forecast models for Newport, Oregon.

10 Eble et al.
4. Results and Discussion

4.1 Model validation

To test the performance of the reference and forecast models developed for operational use for Newport, Oregon, 11 historical tsunami events were modeled. Source

details for each of these events are provided in Table 1. Observations at the South

Beach tide gauge recorded during the 1994 Kuril, 1996 Andreanof Islands, 2006

Kuril, 2007 Kuril, 2009 Samoa, and 2010 Chile events were used to validate model

predictions. Tsunami forecast model predictions were compared with those of the

reference model for the 11 historical events, and also with tide gauge observations

during each of the six events identified above. Maximum expected tsunami wave

height within the C grid and the time series predicted at the tide gauge by the reference and forecast models for the 11 historical events are plotted in Figures 9–19;

event-specific tide gauge observations are plotted as a third time series in the six

corresponding event figures. 

Maximum tsunami wave height maps for the 11 historical events show that

the reference model consistently predicts slightly higher tsunami wave amplitudes

than predicted by the forecast model. This suggests a loss of wave energy as the

tsunami propagates across the lower-resolution forecast model grids. The highest

amplitudes occur along the coast, most typically south of the Newport breakwater,

and not inside Yaquina Bay. For all events, the reference and forecast model results

are visually well correlated in prediction of first wave arrival time and magnitude.

Later waves are less correlated, possibly due to the effect of differing bathymetries and grid resolutions on waves as they reflect and refract within the C-grid

domain. There is, however, generally good agreement in the amplitude of later

waves predicted by the reference and forecast models.

The 1946 Unimak earthquake, at a magnitude of Mw 8.5, generated the earliest

ofthe 11 historicaltsunamis modeled. Ofthese events, Unimak is the fourth largest

in terms of earthquake magnitude and third largest in terms of predicted response

at the South Beach tide gauge. Results, presented in Figure 9, show generally

good agreement between reference and forecast model predictions. Ocean maxima,

however, are noted as being higher from the reference model than the forecast

model. Amplitudes predicted by both models inside the breakwater are similar

in magnitude. Wave amplitudes predicted by the reference and forecast models

at the South Beach tide gauge (Figure 9, lower panel) are well correlated, with

maximum wave amplitudes predicted to be approximately 0.25 m.

The 1960 Chile (Figure 10) and 1964 Alaska (Figure 11) events are the

largest in terms of both magnitude and impact of the 11 historical events modeled

and presented here. (Note that the maximum wave color map used for both of these

figures has been “pushed” so that details within the bay are visually identifiable.)

As Figure 10 shows, the largest waves predicted by the reference and forecast

models along the open ocean coastline for the 1960 Chile tsunami show consistency. As was the case for the 1946 Unimak event, the reference model predicts

PMEL Tsunami Forecast Series: Vol. 5—Newport, Oregon 11 
slightly higher maxima than predicted by the forecast model, at approximately

1.5 and 1.2 m, respectively. Upstream the river mouth and inside Yaquina Bay,

the maximum wave amplitudes are roughly half of those predicted in the open

ocean: specifically, 0.7 and 0.6 m, respectively, so the difference between reference

and forecast model predictions is less. At the tide gauge location, the two predicted

time series agree well in timing and magnitude, with the main difference being

the lower drawdown in the reference model prediction. The observed maximum

amplitude of 0.61 m (NGDC, 2009) is reproduced by both the reference and forecast

models. For the 1964 Alaska tsunami, the reference and forecast models predict

maximum offshore wave amplitudes in excess of 2 m. Maxima inside Yaquina Bay

are predicted to be 1.4 m by the reference model and 1.7 m by the forecast model.

For this event, the forecast model produces slightly higher amplitudes inside the

bay than those predicted by the reference model. At the Newport tide gauge location, the amplitude of 0.3 m is reported by NGDC (2009) during the 1964 event.

At first glance, this appears to represent a significant discrepancy from the ~1 m

maximum amplitude predicted by both reference and forecast models. However,

the location of the tide gauge was moved in 1967, three years after the 1964 Alaska

event, so the grid cell from which predictions are extracted is not representative of

the 1964 observation. In addition, the NGDC wave amplitude is approximated as

1⁄2 wave height (peak to adjacent wave trough). This value is approximately 0.6 m

for the first wave of the forecast model. Absence of the observed tide gauge record

and unknown location of the measurements make the direct comparison of the

model results with observations difficult and uncertain in this case.

The 1996 Andreanof Islands and 2006 Tonga historical events are the smallest

of the 11 modeled in both magnitude and impact at Newport. Model predictions

and tide gauge observations for the 1996 Andreanof Islands event, plotted in

Figure 12, show agreement between reference and forecast model predictions for

signals in which identification of the tsunami is difficult. For this event and some

others, local background energy, or “noise,” results in a signal-to-noise ratio that is

too low to clearly determine when the “initial” wave arrives. Results of modeling

the 2006 Tonga event are shown in Figure 13. Predicted maximum waves along

the open beaches are on order 0.17 m and less than 0.10 m within Yaquina Bay.

Reference and forecast model-predicted time series, shown in the lower panel, are

well matched for the initial three waves.

The three historical Kuril events of 1994, 2006, and 2007 were each generated

by earthquakes of moderate magnitude. As shown in Figure 4, the 1994 and 2006

tsunamis were generated by magnitude Mw 8.3 earthquakes but were located

along different sections of the Kuril subduction zone. The 2007 tsunami was generated by a magnitude Mw 8.1 earthquake but the source was co-located with that

of the 2006 event. Results for the more eastern 1994 Kuril event, presented in

Figure 14, show consistency between reference and forecast model predictions.

Inside Yaquina Bay, both models predict maxima less than 0.15 m. A comparison

of model-predicted time series with tide gauge observations shows agreement in

maximum amplitude but a lag in the timing of model results. The difference in

travel time may be due, in part, to the actual tsunami source being in a different

location than that defined within the 50 × 100 km unit source block(s) selected. Additional reasons for the travel time discrepancy may include cumulative bathymetry

12 Eble et al.
error for the Pacific propagation model grid and model approximation error. For the

2006 event, results, presented in Figure 15, show predictions approaching 0.20 m

along the open coast within the reference model C grid. Predictions from the forecast model are generally lower along the open coast. Observations at the tide gauge

appear to show under-prediction by both the reference and forecast models, but all

records, predicted and observed alike, are quite noisy. When results are compared

with time series observations during the 1994 event, reference and forecast models

more closely predict the maximum amplitude observed during the 1994 event than

they predict for the larger maximum amplitude observed during the 2006 event.

However, forecast model predictions mirror those of the reference model for the

first waves and throughout the time series for both events. For the 2007 Kuril

event, results predicted by both the reference and forecast models are 0.10–0.15 m

along the open coast and negligible inside Yaquina Bay, as shown in Figure 16. 

Observations at the tide gauge appear to show larger amplitude waves, but this

may be misleading as predicted and observed records are both noisy. The smaller

amplitudes predicted for the 2007 are consistent with this event being smaller in

magnitude than the 1994 and 2006 events. Overall, model predictions for all three

events are consistent in showing higher waves along the open coast within the C

grid and lower waves inside Yaquina Bay. Reference and forecast model predictions

for the same magnitude 1994 and 2006 events are well correlated and are also

consistent in prediction of impact that both events have on Newport, This may be

an indication that magnitude overrides exact location for determining impact at

Newport along the Kuril subduction zone.

The 2009 Samoa and 2010 Chile historical events are significantly different in

terms of magnitude but similar in terms of impact at Newport. The impact range,

as observed in the time series plots in Figures 17 and 18, is between +/– 0.1 m.

The Figure 17 upper panel maps show that for the Samoa event, amplitude

maxima predicted by the reference and forecast models are consistent with one

another. The maximum amplitude at the tide gauge is approximately 0.8 m in

both predicted and observed time series. Modeling results for the 2010 Chile event

are presented in Figure 18. The forecast model predicts wave heights of approximately 0.2 m along the open coast while the reference model predicts waves on order

0.3 m. Maximum wave heights predicted by the two models within Yaquina Bay

are better matched. For both events, time series at the tide gauge show temporal

offsets between predicted and observed. Predictions lead observations by approximately 12 min for 2010 Chile and by approximately 9 min for 2009 Samoa. These

time shifts, as mentioned previously, hint at an inexact source location within a

50 × 100 km unit source block.

The last of the historical events modeled and presented here is the 2007

Solomon Islands event. Generated by a moderate, magnitude Mw 8.1 earthquake,

the impact to Newport is shown in Figure 19. Along the Newport coastline, the

reference model predicts significantly larger maximum waves than those predicted

by the forecast model. Within Yaquina Bay, the reference model predicts a higher

response than the forecast model, but at the time series, predictions by the two

models are well correlated in both magnitude and time. Observations at the tide

gauge for this event are not available for direct comparison.

PMEL Tsunami Forecast Series: Vol. 5—Newport, Oregon 13 
4.2 Model robustness and stability

Historical tsunamis provide only a limited number of events, generated from a

limited number of source locations. More comprehensive test cases of destructive

tsunamis with full basin directionalities are needed to check the tsunami forecast model stability and robustness. Therefore, 19 synthetic Mw 9.3 mega-tsunami

events, one Mw 7.5 synthetic scenario, and one synthetic Mw 6.6 micro-tsunami

scenario, as listed in Table 3, were selected for further testing. These scenarios

originate from unit source combinations around the Pacific Ocean basin and

along the South American coast. The spatial coverage of the scenarios is shown in

Figure 20, in which all scenarios are plotted relative to one another. The sources

used as input to the computational grids for this phase of testing are the Pacific

basin subset of sources from a worldwide propagation database developed by the

NCTR (Gica et al., 2008). Details of these Pacific basin unit sources are provided

in Appendix B.

Predicted tsunami waves at the South Beach tide gauge and forecast model

predicted wave maxima are shown in Figures 21–41. The forecast model remained

stable during testing for all synthetic scenarios. Scenarios run using AlaskaCascadia and Kuril-Kamchatka sources are projected to generate the largest waves

impacting Newport, and as expected, the largest predicted waves result from a

near-field mega-tsunami scenario along the Alaska-Cascadia Subduction Zone,

specifically ACSZ 56–65 (Figure 29). This synthetic scenario exhibits extreme

inundation south of the Yaquina Bay breakwaters and along Highway 101 to South

Beach. Wave heights of 10 m are possible along the coast from this scenario. In

the far field, the greatest impact at Newport is from a tsunami generated along

the Kuril-Kamchatka Subduction Zone (Figures 21–24.) The impact to Newport

from a tsunami generated by all remaining synthetic scenarios varies depending

on magnitude and wave energy directionality from the source.

These and all specific results should be considered in the context of this report

and should not be used as a proxy for a complete hazard assessment, which is more

appropriately conducted using the reference model. Testing of the tsunami forecast

model within the SIFT system was conducted to ensure that operational performance remained consistent with that observed on individual servers during development and testing. Differences in amplitude predictions between development

model runs and operational system runs, noted in Appendix C, are due to MOST

version updates made in the years after forecast model development. Predictions

for Newport made during the 2011 Tohoku tsunami show closer agreement with

tide gauge observations than would be expected of the model using the MOST

version in use during development. Therefore, the results show that the forecast

model developed for Newport provides an operational forecast that meets accuracy

requirements.

14 Eble et al.
Scenario α

No. Name Source Zone Tsunami Source [m]

Mega-tsunami Scenario

1 KISZ 1–10 Kamchatka–Kuril–Japan–Izu–Mariana–Yap A1–10, B1–10 25

2 KISZ 22–31 Kamchatka–Kuril–Japan–Izu–Mariana–Yap A22–31, B22–31 25

3 KISZ 32–41 Kamchatka–Kuril–Japan–Izu–Mariana–Yap A32–41, B32–41 25

4 KISZ 56–65 Kamchatka–Kuril–Japan–Izu–Mariana–Yap A56–65, B56–65 25

5 ACSZ 6–15 Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia A6–15, B6–15 25

6 ACSZ 16–25 Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia A16–25, B16–25 25

7 ACSZ 22–31 Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia A22–31, B22–31 25

8 ACSZ 50–59 Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia A50–59, B50–59 25

9 ACSZ 56–65 Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia A56–65, B56–65 25

10 CSSZ 1–10 Central and South America A1–10, B1–10 25

11 CSSZ 37–46 Central and South America A37–46, B37–46 25

12 CSSZ 89–98 Central and South America A89–98, B89–98 25

13 CSSZ 102–111 Central and South America A102–111, B102–111 25

14 NTSZ 30–39 New Zealand–Kermadec–Tonga A30–39, B30–39 25

15 NVSZ 28–37 New Britain–Solomons–Vanuatu A28–37, B28–37 25

16 MOSZ 1–10 Manus–Oceanic Convergent Boundary A1–10, B1–10 25

17 NGSZ 3–12 North New Guinea A3–12, B3–12 25

18 EPSZ 6–15 East Philippines A6–15, B6–15 25

19 RNSZ 12–21 Ryukyu–Kyushu–Nankai A12–21, B12–21 25

Mw 7.5 Tsunami Scenario

20 NTSZ B36 New Zealand–Kermadec–Tonga B36 1

Micro-tsunami Scenario

21 ACSZ B6 Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia B6 0.05

Table 3: Synthetic tsunami events used in the forecast model testing for Newport, Oregon.

PMEL Tsunami Forecast Series: Vol. 5—Newport, Oregon 15 

5. Summary and Conclusions

A digital elevation model, a high-resolution reference model, and a tsunami forecast

model were each developed for Newport, Oregon. The tsunami forecast model was

developed by reducing reference model grid resolution in order to provide forecasts

of tsunami wave amplitude, arrival time, and inundation within time constraints

dictated by operational forecast requirements. Forecast model C-grid resolution is

2.7 arc sec in longitude and 2.0 arc sec in latitude. The computational grids were

derived from the best bathymetric and topographic source data available at the

time of grid construction.

Eleven historical events were simulated and tsunami forecast model performance was evaluated by comparing predicted results with both reference model

results and observations at the South Beach tide gauge, when available, to validate the forecast model predictions. The stability and sensitivity of the model

were tested with 19 Mw 9.3 synthetic tsunami scenarios originating from unit

source combinations around the Pacific Ocean basin and along the South American coast. The forecast model remained stable during testing for all synthetic

scenarios. Scenarios run using Alaska-Cascadia and Kuril-Kamchatka sources

are predicted to generate waves as high as 7 m. These and all specific results

should be considered in the context of this report and should not be used as a

proxy for a complete hazard assessment, which is more appropriately conducted

using the reference model.

Testing of the tsunami forecast model within the operational SIFT system was

conducted to ensure that operational performance remained consistent with that

observed on individual servers during development and testing. Differences in

amplitude predictions noted between development model runs and operational

system runs, as presented in Appendix C, are due to MOST version updates

made in the years after forecast model development. Predictions for Newport

made during the 2011 Tohoku tsunami show closer agreement with tide gauge

observations than would be expected of the model using the MOST version in

use during development. Based on all test results presented in this report, the

Newport tsunami forecast model can provide a 4 hr forecast of the first tsunami

wave arrival time, wave amplitudes, and inundation of normally dry land within

10 min of wall-clock time, and meets operational accuracy requirements.

PMEL Tsunami Forecast Series: Vol. 5—Newport, Oregon 17 
6. Acknowledgments

The authors wish to than Dylan Righi for grid development and testing, Yong 

Wei for his assistance with model setup and troubleshooting, the team of Lindsey 

Wright, Nicolas Arcos, Katherine Burgess, and Nazila Merati for providing much 

appreciated comments and editorial assistance, and Burak Uslu for providing 

propagation database unit source information as well as the unit source graphics 

in Appendix B. The authors especially thank Ryan Layne Whitney and Sandra 

Bigley for technical assistance and for their thorough editorial review of the report 

draft versions generated over the course of many months. Collaborative contributions of the National Weather Service, the National Geophysical Data Center, the 

National Ocean Survey, and the National Data Buoy Center were invaluable.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration provided funding for all 

work culminating in the development of the Newport, Oregon, tsunami forecast 

model and report. This publication was partially funded by the Joint Institute for 

the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean (JISAO) under NOAA Cooperative Agreement No. NA17RJ1232, JISAO Contribution No. 1771, PMEL Contribution No. 

3449, and NOAA ISI ID280.

18 Eble et al.
7. References

Audubon Society of Portland (2014): “Yaquina Bay.” The Audubon Society.

http://audubonportland.org/local-birding/iba/iba-map/yaquina. 

Accessed 22 February 2014.

Carignan, K.S., L.A. Taylor, B.W. Eakins, R.R. Warnken, E. Lim, and P.R.

Medley (2009): Digital elevation model of central Oregon Coast: Procedures,

data sources and analysis. NOAA Tech. Memo. NESDIS NGDC-25, U.S.

Dept. of Commerce, Boulder, CO, 38 pp.

Census (2010): factfinder2.census.gov/faces/nav/jsf/pages/community_

facts.xhtml. 

Gica, E., M.C. Spillane, V.V. Titov, C.D. Chamberlin, and J.C. Newman (2008):

Development of the forecast propagation database for NOAA’s Short-term

Inundation Forecast for Tsunamis (SIFT). NOAA Tech. Memo. OAR PMEL139, NTIS: PB2008-109391, NOAA/Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, Seattle, WA, 89 pp.

Kanamori, H., and J.J. Cipar (1974): Focal process of the great Chilean earthquake, May 22, 1960. Phys. Earth Planet. In., 9, 128–136.

López, A.M., and E.A. Okal (2006): A seismological reassessment of the source

of the 1946 Aleutian “tsunami” earthquake. Geophys. J. Int., 165(3), 835–

849, doi: 10.1111/j.1365-246x.2006.02899.x.

National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (2012): Proceedings and results

of the 2011 NTHMP model benchmarking workshop (NOAA Special Report). U.S. Department of Commerce/NOAA/NTHMP, Boulder, CO, 436 pp.

NGDC (2009): Global Tsunami Database (2000 BC to present). National Geophysical Data Center, http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/hazard/tsu_db.shtml.

Oregon Coast Aquarium (2010) “Estuary Trail.” Oregon Coast Aquarium Newport. The Oregon Coast Aquarium. http://aquarium.org/exhibits/estuarytrail. Accessed 19 February 2014.

Synolakis, C.E., E.N. Bernard, V.V. Titov, U. Kânoğlu, and F.I. González (2007):

Standards, criteria, and procedures for NOAA evaluation of tsunami numerical models. NOAA Tech. Memo. OAR PMEL-135, NTIS: PB2007-109601,

NOAA/Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, Seattle, WA, 55 pp.

Synolakis, C.E., E.N. Bernard, V.V. Titov, U. Kânoğlu, and F.I. González (2008):

Validation and verification of tsunami numerical models. Pure Appl. 

Geophys., 165(11–12), 2197–2228.

PMEL Tsunami Forecast Series: Vol. 5—Newport, Oregon 19 
Tang, L., V.V. Titov, and C.D. Chamberlin (2009): Development, testing, and

applications of site-specific tsunami inundation models for real-time forecasting. J. Geophys. Res., 114, C12025, doi: 10.1029/2009JC005476.

Titov, V.V. (2009): Tsunami forecasting. In The Sea, Vol. 15, Chapter 12, Harvard University Press, Cambridge, MA, and London, England, 371–400.

Titov, V.V., and F.I. González (1997): Implementation and testing of the Method

of Splitting Tsunami (MOST) model. NOAA Tech. Memo. ERL PMEL-112

(PB98-122773), NOAA/Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, Seattle,

WA, 11 pp.

Titov, V.V., F.I. González, E.N. Bernard, M.C. Eble, H.O. Mofjeld, J.C. Newman,

and A.J. Venturato (2005): Real-time tsunami forecasting: Challenges and

solutions. Nat. Hazards, 35(1), Special Issue, U.S. National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program, 41–58.

Wei, Y., E. Bernard, L. Tang, R. Weiss, V. Titov, C. Moore, M. Spillane, M.

Hopkins, and U. Kânoğlu (2008): Real-time experimental forecast of the

Peruvian tsunami of August 2007 for U.S. coastlines. Geophys. Res. Lett., 

35, L04609, doi: 10.1029/2007GL032250.

20 Eble et al.
FIGURES

PMEL Tsunami Forecast Series: Vol. 5—Newport, Oregon 21 

Figure 1: (a) Aerial view of Yaquina Bay showing the South Beach area in the foreground and historic Nye Beach

along the opposite shore. The city of Newport in the background is situated between the Pacific Ocean and the Yaquina

River. The historic Yaquina Bay Bridge serves as the single point of connection between the city of Newport and South

Beach. (b) A detailed view of the NOAA Marine Operations Center – Pacific. (http://www.moc.noaa.gov).

(a)

(b)

PMEL Tsunami Forecast Series: Vol. 5—Newport, Oregon 23 
Figure 2: Aerial view of Newport, Oregon. The arrow shows the approximate location of the South Beach tide gauge

used for comparison with model results (from NCTR/Oregon Graduate Institute CCALMR archives).

24 Eble et al.
Figure 3: Evacuation map for Newport, Oregon, developed in the mid-1990s by the Oregon Department of Geology

and Mineral Industries in consultation with local officials (http://www.oregongeology.com/sub/earthquakes/

coastal/tsubrochures/NewportEvac.pdf). Evacuation routes were developed in response to a worst-case scenario

for a tsunami caused by an undersea earthquake off the Oregon coast.

PMEL Tsunami Forecast Series: Vol. 5—Newport, Oregon 25 
120°E 160°E 160°W 120°W 80°W

50°S

25°S

0° 

25°N

50°N 1946 Unimak

1960 Chile

1994 Kuril

2007 Kuril

2006 Kuril

1996 Andreanof 1964 Alaska

2007 Solomon

2006 Tonga

2009 Samoa

2010 Chile

Figure 4: Map of the Pacific Ocean basin showing the location of the 11 historical events used to test and validate the Newport model. Relative earthquake magnitude is shown by the varying sizes and colors of the filled

circles. The largest magnitude earthquake used in model validation was the 1960 Chile Mw 9.5 earthquake,

denoted by the burnt umber circle.

26 Eble et al.
Figure 5: Digital elevation model constructed in 2004 by the NOAA Center for

Tsunami Research for Newport, Oregon. (a) Shows the full extent of the grid and (b) provides

an oblique view to aid in visualization. Bathymetry and topography elevations are plotted on a

consistent scale represented by the color bar in (a).

(a)

(b)

PMEL Tsunami Forecast Series: Vol. 5—Newport, Oregon 27 
128°W 127°W 126°W 125°W 124°W

43°N

44°N

45°N

46°N

47°N

48°N

24 ́ 12 ́ 124°W 48 ́ 36 ́

40 ́ 

45°N

20 ́ 

40 ́ 

 8 ́ 124°W

6.00 ́ 

 4 ́ 2 ́

34 ́ 

44°N

36.00 ́ 

38 ́ 

40 ́

0

400

800

1200

1600

2000

2400

2800

meters

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

meters

0

10

20

30

40

meters

Figure 6: Bathymetry and topography for the reference inundation model grids A (top–left), B

(top–right), and C (bottom). The topography of the C grid is shown using contours with 40 m

intervals. The red boxes in the A and B plots show the position of the B and C grids, respectively.

28 Eble et al.
127°W 126°W 125°W 124°W 123°W

44°N

20 ́ 

40 ́ 

45°N

20 ́

40 ́ 

16 ́ 12 ́ 8 ́ 4 ́ 124°W

28 ́ 

32 ́ 

44°N

36.00 ́

40 ́ 

44 ́ 

 7 ́ 6 ́ 5 ́ 124°W

4.00 ́ 

 3 ́ 2 ́ 1 ́

33 ́

34 ́

35 ́

44°N

36.00 ́ 

37 ́

38 ́

39 ́

0

400

800

1200

1600

2000

2400

2800

meters

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

meters

0

10

20

30

40

meters

Figure 7: Bathymetry and topography for the tsunami forecast model grids A (top), B (middle–right),

and C (bottom). The topography of the C grid is shown using contours with 40 m intervals. The red boxes

in the A and B plots show the positions of the B and C grids, respectively.

PMEL Tsunami Forecast Series: Vol. 5—Newport, Oregon 29 
Figure 8: Difference plot showing the result of subtracting the digital elevation model

constructed by the National Geophysical Data Center in 2008 from the digital elevation

model constructed by the NOAA Center for Tsunami Research in 2004. The primary

differences are evident along the coast from inclusion of LIDAR data in the 2008 model.

30 Eble et al.
5 6 7 8 9 10

−0.5

0

0.5

time since event (hours)

wave amplitude (m)

Unimak, April 01, 1946

forecast model

reference model

 8’ 124 o

W 

 6.00’ 

 4’ 2’ 

 34’ 

 44 oN 

 36.00’ 

 38’ 

 40’ 

Reference

 7’ 6’ 5’ 124 o

W 

 4.00’ 

 3’ 2’ 1’ 

 33’ 

 34’ 

 35’ 

 44 oN 

 36.00’ 

 37’ 

 38’ 

 39’ 

Forecast

0 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60

cm

Figure 9: Model results for the 1946 Unimak Mw 8.5 event. From left to right, the upper two panels show,

respectively, the forecast and reference model maximum wave height predictions. The lower panel shows the

forecast model (red) and reference model (green) wave amplitudes at the Newport tide gauge.

PMEL Tsunami Forecast Series: Vol. 5—Newport, Oregon 31 
15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22

−1

−0.5

0

0.5

1

time since event (hours)

wave amplitude (m)

Chile, May 22, 1960

forecast model

reference model

 8 ́ 124°W

6.00 ́

 4 ́ 2 ́

34 ́ 

44°N

36.00 ́ 

38 ́ 

40 ́ 

Reference

 7 ́ 6 ́ 5 ́ 124°W

4.00 ́ 

 3 ́ 2 ́ 1 ́

33 ́ 

34 ́ 

35 ́ 

44°N

36.00 ́ 

37 ́ 

38 ́ 

39 ́ 

Forecast

0 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120

cm

Figure 10: Model results for the 1960 Chile Mw 9.5 event. From left to right, the upper two panels show, respectively, the forecast and reference model maximum wave height predictions. The lower panel shows the forecast (red)

and reference model (green) wave amplitudes at the Newport tide gauge.

32 Eble et al.
4 5 6 7 8 9

−1.5

−1

−0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

time since event (hours)

wave amplitude (m)

Alaska, March 28, 1964

forecast model

reference model

8 ́ 124°W

6.00 ́

4 ́ 2 ́ 

34 ́ 

44°N

36.00 ́ 

38 ́ 

40 ́ 

Reference

7 ́ 6 ́ 5 ́ 124°W

4.00 ́ 

3 ́ 2 ́ 1 ́ 

33 ́ 

34 ́ 

35 ́ 

44°N

36.00 ́ 

37 ́ 

38 ́ 

39 ́ 

Forecast

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200

cm

Figure 11: Model results for the 1964 Alaska Mw 9.2 event. From left to right, the upper two panels show, respectively, the forecast and reference model maximum wave height predictions. The lower panel shows the forecast

model (red) and reference model (green) wave amplitudes at the Newport tide gauge.

PMEL Tsunami Forecast Series: Vol. 5—Newport, Oregon 33 
5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

−0.1

−0.05

0

0.05

0.1

time since event (hours)

wave amplitude (m)

Andreanof, June 10, 1996

forecast model

reference model

tide gauge data

8 ́ 124°W

6.00 ́

4 ́ 2 ́ 

34 ́ 

44°N

36.00 ́ 

38 ́ 

40 ́ 

Reference

7 ́ 6 ́ 5’ 124°W

4.00 ́ 

 3’ 2’ 1’ 

33 ́ 

34 ́ 

35 ́ 

44°N

36.00 ́ 

37 ́ 

38 ́ 

39 ́ 

Forecast

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

cm

Figure 12: Model results for the 1996 Andreanof Mw 7.9 event. From left to right, the upper two panels show,

respectively, the forecast and reference model maximum wave height predictions. The lower panel shows the forecast model (red), reference model (green), and observed (black) wave amplitudes at the Newport tide gauge.

34 Eble et al.
11 12 13 14 15 16 17

−0.1

−0.05

0

0.05

0.1

time since event (hours)

wave amplitude (m)

Tonga, May 03, 2006

forecast model

reference model

8 ́ 124°W

6.00 ́

4 ́ 2 ́ 

34 ́ 

44°N

36.00 ́ 

38 ́ 

40 ́ 

Reference

7 ́ 6 ́ 5 ́ 124°W

4.00 ́ 

3 ́ 2 ́ 1 ́ 

33 ́ 

34 ́ 

35 ́ 

44°N

36.00 ́ 

 37 ́ 

38 ́ 

39 ́ 

Forecast

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

cm

Figure 13: Model results for the 2006 Tonga Mw 8.0 event. From left to right, the upper two panels show, respectively, the forecast and reference model maximum wave height predictions. The lower panel shows the forecast

model (red) and reference model (green) wave amplitudes at the Newport tide gauge.

PMEL Tsunami Forecast Series: Vol. 5—Newport, Oregon 35 
9 10 11 12 13 14 15

−0.1

−0.05

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

time since event (hours)

wave amplitude (m)

Kuril, October 04, 1994

forecast model

reference model

tide gauge data

8 ́ 124°W

 6.00’

4 ́ 2 ́ 

34 ́ 

44°N

36.00 ́ 

38 ́ 

40 ́ 

Reference

7 ́ 6 ́ 5 ́ 124°W

4.00 ́ 

3 ́ 2 ́ 1 ́ 

33 ́ 

34 ́ 

35 ́ 

44°N

36.00 ́ 

37 ́ 

38 ́ 

39 ́ 

Forecast

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20

cm

Figure 14: Model results for the 1994 Kuril Mw 8.3 event. From left to right, the upper two panels show, respectively, the forecast and reference model maximum wave height predictions. The lower panel shows the forecast

model (red), reference model (green), and observed (black) wave amplitudes at the Newport tide gauge.

36 Eble et al.
8 9 10 11 12 13 14

−0.1

−0.05

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

time since event (hours)

wave amplitude (m)

Kuril, November 15, 2006

forecast model

reference model

tide gauge data

8 ́ 124°W

6.00 ́

4 ́ 2 ́ 

34 ́ 

44°N

36.00 ́ 

38 ́ 

40 ́ 

Reference

7 ́ 6 ́ 5 ́ 124°W

4.00 ́

3 ́ 2 ́ 1 ́ 

33 ́ 

34 ́ 

35 ́ 

44°N

36.00 ́ 

37 ́ 

38 ́ 

39 ́ 

Forecast

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20

cm

Figure 15: Model results for the 2006 Kuril Mw 8.3 event. From left to right, the upper two panels show, respectively, the forecast and reference model maximum wave height predictions. The lower panel shows the forecast

model (red), reference model (green), and observed (black) wave amplitudes at the Newport tide gauge.

PMEL Tsunami Forecast Series: Vol. 5—Newport, Oregon 37 
8 9 10 11 12 13 14

−0.1

−0.05

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

time since event (hours)

wave amplitude (m)

Kuril, January 13, 2007

forecast model

reference model

tide gauge data

8 ́ 124°W

6.00 ́

4 ́ 2 ́ 

34 ́ 

44°N

36.00 ́ 

38 ́ 

40 ́ 

Reference

7 ́ 6 ́ 5’ 124°W

4.00 ́ 

3 ́ 2 ́ 1 ́ 

33 ́ 

34 ́ 

35 ́ 

44°N

36.00 ́ 

37 ́ 

38 ́ 

39 ́ 

Forecast

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20

cm

Figure 16: Model results for the 2007 Kuril Mw 8.1 event. From left to right, the upper two panels show, respectively, the forecast and reference model maximum wave height predictions. The lower panel shows the forecast

model (red), reference model (green), and observed (black) wave amplitudes at the Newport tide gauge.

38 Eble et al.
11 12 13 14 15 16 17

−0.1

−0.05

0

0.05

0.1

time since event (hours)

wave amplitude (m)

Samoa, September 29, 2009

forecast model

reference model

tide gauge data

8 ́ 124°W

6.00 ́

4 ́ 2 ́ 

34 ́ 

44°N

36.00 ́ 

38 ́ 

40 ́ 

Reference

7 ́ 6 ́ 5 ́ 124°W

4.00 ́ 

3 ́ 2 ́ 1 ́ 

33 ́ 

34 ́ 

35 ́ 

44°N

36.00 ́ 

37 ́ 

38 ́ 

39 ́ 

Forecast

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20

cm

Figure 17: Model results for the 2009 Samoa Mw 8.1 event. From left to right, the upper two panels show, respectively, the forecast and reference model maximum wave height predictions. The lower panel shows the forecast

model (red), reference model (green), and observed (black) wave amplitudes at the Newport tide gauge.

PMEL Tsunami Forecast Series: Vol. 5—Newport, Oregon 39 
15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

−0.2

−0.1

0

0.1

0.2

time since event (hours)

wave amplitude (m)

Chile, February 27, 2010

forecast model

reference model

tide gauge data

8 ́ 124°W

6.00 ́

4 ́ 2 ́ 

34 ́ 

44°N

36.00 ́ 

38 ́ 

40 ́ 

Reference

7 ́ 6 ́ 5 ́ 124°W

4.00 ́ 

3 ́ 2 ́ 1 ́ 

33 ́ 

34 ́ 

35 ́ 

44°N

36.00 ́ 

37 ́ 

38 ́ 

39 ́ 

Forecast

0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30

cm

Figure 18: Model results for the 2010 Chile Mw 8.8 event. From left to right, the upper two panels show, respectively, the forecast and reference model maximum wave height predictions. The lower panel shows the forecast

model (red), reference model (green), and observed (black) wave amplitudes at the Newport tide gauge.

40 Eble et al.
13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

−0.1

−0.05

0

0.05

0.1

time since event (hours)

wave amplitude (m)

Solomon, April 01, 2007

forecast model

reference model

8 ́ 124°W

6.00 ́

4 ́ 2 ́ 

34 ́ 

 44°N

36.00 ́ 

38 ́ 

40 ́ 

Reference

7 ́ 6 ́ 5 ́ 124°W

4.00 ́ 

3 ́ 2 ́ 1 ́ 

33 ́ 

34 ́ 

35 ́ 

44°N

36.00 ́ 

37 ́ 

38 ́ 

39 ́ 

Forecast

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

cm

Figure 19: Model results for the 2007 Solomon Mw 8.1 event. From left to right, the upper two panels show, respectively, the forecast and reference model maximum wave height predictions. The lower panel shows the forecast

model (red) and reference model (green) wave amplitudes at the Newport tide gauge.

PMEL Tsunami Forecast Series: Vol. 5—Newport, Oregon 41 
120°E 160°E 160°W 120°W 80°W

50°S

25°S

0° 

25°N

50°N

 

KISZ 1-10

KISZ 22-31

KISZ 32-41

KISZ 56-65

ACSZ 6-15 ACSZ 16-25

ACSZ 22-31

ACSZ 50-59

ACSZ 56-65

CSSZ 1-10

CSSZ 37-46

CSSZ 89-98

CSSZ 102-111

NTSZ B36

NTSZ 30-39

EPSZ 6-15

NGSZ 3-12

MOSZ 1-10

NVSZ 28-37

RNSZ 12-21

ACSZ B6

Figure 20: Map of the Pacific Ocean basin showing the locations of the 19 simulated Mw 9.3 events, the Mw 7.5

medium event, and the micro-tsunami event used to test and validate the Newport model. The solid star denotes

the location of Newport.

42 Eble et al.
5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

−0.5

0

0.5

time since event (hours)

wave amplitude (m)

forecast model

7 ́ 6 ́ 5 ́ 124°W

4.00 ́

3 ́ 2 ́ 1 ́ 

33 ́ 

34 ́ 

35 ́ 

44°N

36.00 ́ 

37 ́ 

38 ́ 

39 ́ 

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

cm

KISZ 01–10

Figure 21: Results from the forecast model for the KISZ 1–10 synthetic event. The upper panel shows the map

of predicted maximum wave height in the Newport C grid and the lower panel shows the time series of wave

amplitude at the tide gauge location.

PMEL Tsunami Forecast Series: Vol. 5—Newport, Oregon 43 
9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

−1

−0.5

0

0.5

1

time since event (hours)

wave amplitude (m)

forecast model

 7’ 6’ 5’ 124°W

4.00 ́ 

 3’ 2’ 1’ 

33 ́ 

34 ́ 

35 ́ 

44°N

36.00 ́ 

37 ́ 

38 ́ 

39 ́ 

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

cm

KISZ 22–31

Figure 22: Results from the forecast model for the KISZ 22–31 synthetic event. The upper panel shows the

map of predicted maximum wave height in the Newport C grid and the lower panel shows the time series of

wave amplitude at the tide gauge location.

44 Eble et al.
9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

−1.5

−1

−0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

time since event (hours)

wave amplitude (m)

KISZ 32−41

forecast model

7 ́ 6 ́ 5 ́ 124°W

4.00 ́

3 ́ 2 ́ 1 ́ 

33 ́ 

34 ́ 

35 ́ 

44°N

36.00 ́ 

37 ́ 

38 ́ 

39 ́ 

0

60

120

180

240

300

360

420

480

540

600

cm

Figure 23: Results from the forecast model for the KISZ 32–41 synthetic event. The upper panel shows the

map of predicted maximum wave height in the Newport C grid and the lower panel shows the time series of

wave amplitude at the tide gauge location.

PMEL Tsunami Forecast Series: Vol. 5—Newport, Oregon 45 
11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

−1

−0.5

0

0.5

1

time since event (hours)

wave amplitude (m)

KISZ 56−65

forecast model

7 ́ 6 ́ 5 ́ 124°W

4.00 ́

3 ́ 2 ́ 1 ́ 

33 ́ 

34 ́ 

35 ́ 

44°N

36.00 ́ 

37 ́ 

38 ́ 

39 ́ 

0

30

60

90

120

150

180

210

240

270

300

cm

Figure 24: Results from the forecast model for the KISZ 56–65 synthetic event. The upper panel shows the

map of predicted maximum wave height in the Newport C grid and the lower panel shows the time series of

wave amplitude at the tide gauge location.

46 Eble et al.
4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13

−0.5

0

0.5

time since event (hours)

wave amplitude (m)

ACSZ 06−15

forecast model

7 ́ 6 ́ 5 ́ 124°W

4.00 ́

3 ́ 2 ́ 1 ́ 

33 ́ 

34 ́ 

35 ́ 

44°N

36.00 ́ 

37 ́ 

38 ́ 

39 ́ 

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

cm

Figure 25: Results from the forecast model for the ACSZ 6–15 synthetic event. The upper panel shows the map

of predicted maximum wave height in the Newport C grid and the lower panel shows the time series of wave

amplitude at the tide gauge location.

PMEL Tsunami Forecast Series: Vol. 5—Newport, Oregon 47 
4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13

−0.5

0

0.5

time since event (hours)

wave amplitude (m)

ACSZ 16−25

forecast model

7 ́ 6 ́ 5 ́ 124°W

4.00 ́

3 ́ 2 ́ 1 ́ 

33 ́ 

34 ́ 

35 ́ 

44°N

36.00 ́ 

37 ́ 

38 ́ 

39 ́ 

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

cm

Figure 26: Results from the forecast model for the ACSZ 16–25 synthetic event. The upper panel shows the

map of predicted maximum wave height in the Newport C grid and the lower panel shows the time series of

wave amplitude at the tide gauge location.

48 Eble et al.
3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13

−1.5

−1

−0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

time since event (hours)

wave amplitude (m)

ACSZ 22−31

forecast model

 7’ 6’ 5’ 124°W

4.00 ́

 3’ 2’ 1’ 

33 ́ 

34 ́ 

35 ́ 

44°N

36.00 ́ 

37 ́ 

38 ́ 

39 ́ 

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

cm

Figure 27: Results from the forecast model for the ACSZ 22–31 synthetic event. The upper panel shows the

map of predicted maximum wave height in the Newport C grid and the lower panel shows the time series of

wave amplitude at the tide gauge location.

PMEL Tsunami Forecast Series: Vol. 5—Newport, Oregon 49 
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

−1.5

−1

−0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

time since event (hours)

wave amplitude (m)

ACSZ 50−59

forecast model

7 ́ 6 ́ 5 ́ 124°W

4.00 ́

3 ́ 2 ́ 1 ́ 

33 ́ 

34 ́ 

35 ́ 

44°N

36.00 ́ 

37 ́ 

38 ́ 

39 ́ 

0

60

120

180

240

300

360

420

480

540

600

cm

Figure 28: Results from the forecast model for the ACSZ 50–59 synthetic event. The upper panel shows the

map of predicted maximum wave height in the Newport C grid and the lower panel shows the time series of

wave amplitude at the tide gauge location.

50 Eble et al.
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

−1.5

−1

−0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

time since event (hours)

wave amplitude (m)

ACSZ 56−65

forecast model

7 ́ 6 ́ 5 ́ 124°W

4.00 ́ 

3 ́ 2 ́ 1 ́ 

33 ́ 

34 ́ 

35 ́ 

44°N

36.00 ́ 

37 ́ 

38 ́ 

39 ́ 

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

cm

Figure 29: Results from the forecast model for the ACSZ 56–65 synthetic event. The upper panel shows the

map of predicted maximum wave height in the Newport C grid and the lower panel shows the time series of

wave amplitude at the tide gauge location.

PMEL Tsunami Forecast Series: Vol. 5—Newport, Oregon 51 
5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

−0.3

−0.2

−0.1

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

time since event (hours)

wave amplitude (m)

CSSZ 01−10

forecast model

7 ́ 6 ́ 5 ́ 124°W

4.00 ́

3 ́ 2 ́ 1 ́ 

33 ́ 

34 ́ 

35 ́ 

44°N

36.00 ́ 

37 ́ 

38 ́ 

39 ́ 

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

26

28

30

32

34

36

cm

Figure 30: Results from the forecast model for the CSSZ 1–10 synthetic event. The upper panel shows the map

of predicted maximum wave height in the Newport C grid and the lower panel shows the time series of wave

amplitude at the tide gauge location.

52 Eble et al.
11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

−0.3

−0.2

−0.1

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

time since event (hours)

wave amplitude (m)

CSSZ 37−46

forecast model

7 ́ 6 ́ 5 ́ 124°W

4.00 ́

3 ́ 2 ́ 1 ́ 

33 ́ 

34 ́ 

35 ́ 

44°N

36.00 ́ 

37 ́ 

38 ́ 

39 ́ 

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

cm

Figure 31: Results from the forecast model for the CSSZ 37–46 synthetic event. The upper panel shows the

map of predicted maximum wave height in the Newport C grid and the lower panel shows the time series of

wave amplitude at the tide gauge location.

PMEL Tsunami Forecast Series: Vol. 5—Newport, Oregon 53 
15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25

−0.5

0

0.5

time since event (hours)

wave amplitude (m)

CSSZ 89−98

forecast model

7 ́ 6 ́ 5 ́ 124°W

4.00 ́

3 ́ 2 ́ 1 ́ 

33 ́ 

34 ́ 

35 ́ 

44°N

36.00 ́ 

37 ́ 

38 ́ 

39 ́ 

0

8

16

24

32

40

48

cm

Figure 32: Results from the forecast model for the CSSZ 89–98 synthetic event. The upper panel shows the

map of predicted maximum wave height in the Newport C grid and the lower panel shows the time series of

wave amplitude at the tide gauge location.

54 Eble et al.
16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26

−0.4

−0.2

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

time since event (hours)

wave amplitude (m)

CSSZ 102−111

forecast model

7 ́ 6 ́ 5 ́ 124°W

4.00 ́

3 ́ 2 ́ 1 ́ 

33 ́ 

34 ́ 

35 ́ 

44°N

36.00 ́ 

37 ́ 

38 ́ 

39 ́ 

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

cm

Figure 33: Results from the forecast model for the CSSZ 102–111 synthetic event. The upper panel shows the

map of predicted maximum wave height in the Newport C grid and the lower panel shows the time series of

wave amplitude at the tide gauge location.

PMEL Tsunami Forecast Series: Vol. 5—Newport, Oregon 55 
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

−1

−0.5

0

0.5

1

time since event (hours)

wave amplitude (m)

NTSZ 30−39

forecast model

7 ́ 6 ́ 5 ́ 124°W

4.00 ́

3 ́ 2 ́ 1 ́ 

33 ́ 

34 ́ 

35 ́ 

44°N

36.00 ́ 

37 ́ 

38 ́ 

39 ́ 

0

30

60

90

120

150

180

210

240

270

300

cm

Figure 34: Results from the forecast model for the NTSZ 30–39 synthetic event. The upper panel shows the

map of predicted maximum wave height in the Newport C grid and the lower panel shows the time series of

wave amplitude at the tide gauge location.

56 Eble et al.
12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21

−0.4

−0.2

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

time since event (hours)

wave amplitude (m)

NVSZ 28−37

forecast model

7 ́ 6 ́ 5 ́ 124°W

4.00 ́

3 ́ 2 ́ 1 ́ 

33 ́ 

34 ́ 

35 ́ 

44°N

36.00 ́ 

37 ́ 

38 ́ 

39 ́ 

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

cm

Figure 35: Results from the forecast model for the NVSZ 28–37 synthetic event. The upper panel shows the

map of predicted maximum wave height in the Newport C grid and the lower panel shows the time series of

wave amplitude at the tide gauge location.

PMEL Tsunami Forecast Series: Vol. 5—Newport, Oregon 57 
12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22

−1

−0.5

0

0.5

1

time since event (hours)

wave amplitude (m)

MOSZ 01−10

forecast model

7 ́ 6 ́ 5 ́ 124°W

4.00 ́

3 ́ 2 ́ 1 ́ 

33 ́ 

34 ́ 

35 ́ 

44°N

36.00 ́ 

37 ́ 

38 ́ 

39 ́ 

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

cm

Figure 36: Results from the forecast model for the MOSZ 1–10 synthetic event. The upper panel shows the

map of predicted maximum wave height in the Newport C grid and the lower panel shows the time series of

wave amplitude at the tide gauge location.

58 Eble et al.
13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

−0.5

0

0.5

time since event (hours)

wave amplitude (m)

NGSZ03−12

forecast model

 7 ́ 6 ́ 5 ́ 124°W

 4.00 ́ 

 3 ́ 2 ́ 1 ́ 

 33 ́ 

 34 ́ 

 35 ́ 

 44°N

 36.00 ́ 

 37 ́ 

 38 ́ 

 39 ́ 

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

cm

Figure 37: Results from the forecast model for the NGSZ 3–12 synthetic event. The upper panel shows the

map of predicted maximum wave height in the Newport C grid and the lower panel shows the time series of

wave amplitude at the tide gauge location.

PMEL Tsunami Forecast Series: Vol. 5—Newport, Oregon 59 
13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22

−1

−0.5

0

0.5

1

time since event (hours)

wave amplitude (m)

EPSZ 06−15

forecast model

7 ́ 6 ́ 5 ́ 124°W

4.00 ́

3 ́ 2 ́ 1 ́ 

33 ́ 

34 ́ 

35 ́ 

44°N

36.00 ́ 

37 ́ 

38 ́ 

39 ́ 

0

30

60

90

120

150

180

210

240

270

300

cm

Figure 38: Results from the forecast model for the EPSZ 6–15 synthetic event. The upper panel shows the map

of predicted maximum wave height in the Newport C grid and the lower panel shows the time series of wave

amplitude at the tide gauge location.

60 Eble et al.
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

−0.4

−0.2

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

time since event (hours)

wave amplitude (m)

RNSZ 12−21

forecast model

7 ́ 6 ́ 5 ́ 124°W

4.00 ́

3 ́ 2 ́ 1 ́ 

33 ́ 

34 ́ 

35 ́ 

44°N

36.00 ́ 

37 ́ 

38 ́ 

39 ́ 

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

cm

Figure 39: Results from the forecast model for the RNSZ 12–21 synthetic event. The upper panel shows the

map of predicted maximum wave height in the Newport C grid and the lower panel shows the time series of

wave amplitude at the tide gauge location.

PMEL Tsunami Forecast Series: Vol. 5—Newport, Oregon 61 
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

−0.2

−0.1

0

0.1

0.2

time since event (hours)

wave amplitude (m)

MEDI75

forecast model

7 ́ 6 ́ 5 ́ 124°W

4.00 ́

3 ́ 2 ́ 1 ́ 

33 ́ 

34 ́ 

35 ́ 

44°N

36.00 ́ 

37 ́ 

38 ́ 

39 ́ 

0

2

4

6

cm

Figure 40: Results from the forecast model for the MEDI7.5 synthetic event forced by a small rupture of NTSZ

B36. The upper panel shows the map of predicted maximum wave height in the Newport C grid and the lower

panel shows the time series of wave amplitude at the tide gauge location.

62 Eble et al.
7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

−0.2

−0.1

0

0.1

0.2

time since event (hours)

wave amplitude (m)

MICRO3

forecast model

7 ́ 6 ́ 5 ́ 124°W

4.00 ́

3 ́ 2 ́ 1 ́ 

33 ́ 

34 ́ 

35 ́ 

44°N

36.00 ́ 

37 ́ 

38 ́ 

39 ́ 

0

2

4

6

cm

Figure 41: Results from the forecast model for the MICRO3 synthetic event forced by a Mw 7.5 rupture of

ACSZ B6. The upper panel shows the map of predicted maximum wave height in the Newport C grid and the

lower panel shows the time series of wave amplitude at the tide gauge location.

PMEL Tsunami Forecast Series: Vol. 5—Newport, Oregon 63 

PMEL Tsunami Forecast Series: Vol. 5—Newport, Oregon 65 

Appendix A.

Since the initial development of the Newport, Oregon, forecast model (SIM), the

parameters for the input file for running the forecast model and reference model

in MOST have been changed to reflect changes to the MOST model code. The

following appendix lists the new input files for Newport, Oregon.

A1. Reference model *.in file for Newport, Oregon

0.0001xx Minimum

0.001 Minimum amplitude of input offshore wave (m):

5 Input minimum depth for offshore (m)

0.1 Input “dry land” depth for inundation (m)

0.0009 Input friction coefficient (n**2)

1 let a and b run up

100.0 max eta before blow up (m)

0.6 Input time step (sec)

72000 Input amount of steps

6 Compute “A” arrays every n-th time step, n=

3 Compute “B” arrays every n-th time step, n=

180 Input number of steps between snapshots

0 ...Starting from

1 ...Saving grid every n-th node, n=

A2. Forecast model *.in file for Newport, Oregon

0.0001xx Minimum

0.001 Minimum amplitude of input offshore wave (m):

5 Input minimum depth for offshore (m)

0.1 Input “dry land” depth for inundation (m)

0.0009 Input friction coefficient (n**2)

1 let a and b run up

100.0 max eta before blow up (m)

2.5 Input time step (sec)

14400 Input amount of steps

1 Compute “A” arrays every n-th time step, n=

1 Compute “B” arrays every n-th time step, n=

15 Input number of steps between snapshots

0 ...Starting from

1 ...Saving grid every n-th node, n=

PMEL Tsunami Forecast Series: Vol. 5—Newport, Oregon 67 

Appendix B. Propagation Database

Pacific Ocean Unit Sources

The NOAA Propagation Database presented in this section is the representation

of the database as of March 2013. This database may have been updated since

March 2013.

PMEL Tsuna

mi ForecastSeries: Vol. 5—Newport, Oregon 69 Figure B1: Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia Subduction Zone unit sources.

1

5

10

15 20

25

30

40

35

45

50

55

60

65

 a, b

 165°E

 180°W

 165°W 150°W

 135°W

 40°N

 45°N

 50°N

 55°N

 60°N
70 Eble et al.

Segment Description

Longitude

(°E)

Latitude

(°N)

Strike

(°)

Dip

(°)

Depth 

(km)

acsz-1a Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 164.7994 55.9606 299 17 19.61

acsz-1b Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 164.4310 55.5849 299 17 5

acsz-2a Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 166.3418 55.4016 310.2 17 19.61

acsz-2b Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 165.8578 55.0734 310.2 17 5

acsz-3a Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 167.2939 54.8919 300.2 23.36 24.82

acsz-3b Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 166.9362 54.5356 300.2 23.36 5

acsz-4a Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 168.7131 54.2852 310.2 38.51 25.33

acsz-4b Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 168.3269 54.0168 310.2 24 5

acsz-5a Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 169.7447 53.7808 302.8 37.02 23.54

acsz-5b Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 169.4185 53.4793 302.8 21.77 5

acsz-6a Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 171.0144 53.3054 303.2 35.31 22.92

acsz-6b Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 170.6813 52.9986 303.2 21 5

acsz-7a Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 172.1500 52.8528 298.2 35.56 20.16

acsz-7b Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 171.8665 52.5307 298.2 17.65 5

acsz-8a Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 173.2726 52.4579 290.8 37.92 20.35

acsz-8b Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 173.0681 52.1266 290.8 17.88 5

acsz-9a Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 174.5866 52.1434 289 39.09 21.05

acsz-9b Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 174.4027 51.8138 289 18.73 5

acsz-10a Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 175.8784 51.8526 286.1 40.51 20.87

acsz-10b Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 175.7265 51.5245 286.1 18.51 5

acsz-11a Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 177.1140 51.6488 280 15 17.94

acsz-11b Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 176.9937 51.2215 280 15 5

acsz-12a Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 178.4500 51.5690 273 15 17.94

acsz-12b Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 178.4130 51.1200 273 15 5

acsz-13a Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 179.8550 51.5340 271 15 17.94

acsz-13b Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 179.8420 51.0850 271 15 5

acsz-14a Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 181.2340 51.5780 267 15 17.94

acsz-14b Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 181.2720 51.1290 267 15 5

acsz-15a Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 182.6380 51.6470 265 15 17.94

acsz-15b Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 182.7000 51.2000 265 15 5

acsz-16a Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 184.0550 51.7250 264 15 17.94

acsz-16b Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 184.1280 51.2780 264 15 5

acsz-17a Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 185.4560 51.8170 262 15 17.94

acsz-17b Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 185.5560 51.3720 262 15 5

acsz-18a Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 186.8680 51.9410 261 15 17.94

acsz-18b Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 186.9810 51.4970 261 15 5

acsz-19a Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 188.2430 52.1280 257 15 17.94

acsz-19b Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 188.4060 51.6900 257 15 5

continued on next page

Table B1: Earthquake parameters for Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia Subduction Zone unit sources.
PMEL Tsunami Forecast Series: Vol. 5—Newport, Oregon 71 

Segment Description

Longitude

(°E)

Latitude

(°N)

Strike

(°)

Dip

(°)

Depth 

(km)

acsz-20a Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 189.5810 52.3550 251 15 17.94

acsz-20b Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 189.8180 51.9300 251 15 5

acsz-21a Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 190.9570 52.6470 251 15 17.94

acsz-21b Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 191.1960 52.2220 251 15 5

acsz-21z Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 190.7399 53.0443 250.8 15 30.88

acsz-22a Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 192.2940 52.9430 247 15 17.94

acsz-22b Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 192.5820 52.5300 247 15 5

acsz-22z Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 192.0074 53.3347 247.8 15 30.88

acsz-23a Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 193.6270 53.3070 245 15 17.94

acsz-23b Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 193.9410 52.9000 245 15 5

acsz-23z Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 193.2991 53.6768 244.6 15 30.88

acsz-24a Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 194.9740 53.6870 245 15 17.94

acsz-24b Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 195.2910 53.2800 245 15 5

acsz-24y Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 194.3645 54.4604 244.4 15 43.82

acsz-24z Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 194.6793 54.0674 244.6 15 30.88

acsz-25a Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 196.4340 54.0760 250 15 17.94

acsz-25b Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 196.6930 53.6543 250 15 5

acsz-25y Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 195.9009 54.8572 247.9 15 43.82

acsz-25z Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 196.1761 54.4536 248.1 15 30.88

acsz-26a Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 197.8970 54.3600 253 15 17.94

acsz-26b Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 198.1200 53.9300 253 15 5

acsz-26y Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 197.5498 55.1934 253.1 15 43.82

acsz-26z Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 197.7620 54.7770 253.3 15 30.88

acsz-27a Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 199.4340 54.5960 256 15 17.94

acsz-27b Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 199.6200 54.1600 256 15 5

acsz-27x Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 198.9736 55.8631 256.5 15 56.24

acsz-27y Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 199.1454 55.4401 256.6 15 43.82

acsz-27z Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 199.3135 55.0170 256.8 15 30.88

acsz-28a Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 200.8820 54.8300 253 15 17.94

acsz-28b Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 201.1080 54.4000 253 15 5

acsz-28x Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 200.1929 56.0559 252.5 15 56.24

acsz-28y Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 200.4167 55.6406 252.7 15 43.82

acsz-28z Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 200.6360 55.2249 252.9 15 30.88

acsz-29a Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 202.2610 55.1330 247 15 17.94

acsz-29b Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 202.5650 54.7200 247 15 5

acsz-29x Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 201.2606 56.2861 245.7 15 56.24

acsz-29y Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 201.5733 55.8888 246 15 43.82

acsz-29z Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 201.8797 55.4908 246.2 15 30.88

continued on next page

Table B1: (continued)
72 Eble et al.

Segment Description

Longitude

(°E)

Latitude

(°N)

Strike

(°)

Dip

(°)

Depth 

(km)

acsz-30a Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 203.6040 55.5090 240 15 17.94

acsz-30b Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 203.9970 55.1200 240 15 5

acsz-30w Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 201.9901 56.9855 239.5 15 69.12

acsz-30x Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 202.3851 56.6094 239.8 15 56.24

acsz-30y Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 202.7724 56.2320 240.2 15 43.82

acsz-30z Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 203.1521 55.8534 240.5 15 30.88

acsz-31a Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 204.8950 55.9700 236 15 17.94

acsz-31b Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 205.3400 55.5980 236 15 5

acsz-31w Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 203.0825 57.3740 234.5 15 69.12

acsz-31x Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 203.5408 57.0182 234.9 15 56.24

acsz-31y Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 203.9904 56.6607 235.3 15 43.82

acsz-31z Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 204.4315 56.3016 235.7 15 30.88

acsz-32a Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 206.2080 56.4730 236 15 17.94

acsz-32b Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 206.6580 56.1000 236 15 5

acsz-32w Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 204.4129 57.8908 234.3 15 69.12

acsz-32x Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 204.8802 57.5358 234.7 15 56.24

acsz-32y Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 205.3385 57.1792 235.1 15 43.82

acsz-32z Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 205.7880 56.8210 235.5 15 30.88

acsz-33a Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 207.5370 56.9750 236 15 17.94

acsz-33b Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 207.9930 56.6030 236 15 5

acsz-33w Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 205.7126 58.3917 234.2 15 69.12

acsz-33x Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 206.1873 58.0371 234.6 15 56.24

acsz-33y Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 206.6527 57.6808 235 15 43.82

acsz-33z Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 207.1091 57.3227 235.4 15 30.88

acsz-34a Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 208.9371 57.5124 236 15 17.94

acsz-34b Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 209.4000 57.1400 236 15 5

acsz-34w Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 206.9772 58.8804 233.5 15 69.12

acsz-34x Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 207.4677 58.5291 233.9 15 56.24

acsz-34y Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 207.9485 58.1760 234.3 15 43.82

acsz-34z Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 208.4198 57.8213 234.7 15 30.88

acsz-35a Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 210.2597 58.0441 230 15 17.94

acsz-35b Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 210.8000 57.7000 230 15 5

acsz-35w Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 208.0204 59.3199 228.8 15 69.12

acsz-35x Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 208.5715 58.9906 229.3 15 56.24

acsz-35y Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 209.1122 58.6590 229.7 15 43.82

acsz-35z Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 209.6425 58.3252 230.2 15 30.88

acsz-36a Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 211.3249 58.6565 218 15 17.94

acsz-36b Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 212.0000 58.3800 218 15 5

continued on next page

Table B1: (continued)
PMEL Tsunami Forecast Series: Vol. 5—Newport, Oregon 73 

Segment Description

Longitude

(°E)

Latitude

(°N)

Strike

(°)

Dip

(°)

Depth 

(km)

acsz-36w Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 208.5003 59.5894 215.6 15 69.12

acsz-36x Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 209.1909 59.3342 216.2 15 56.24

acsz-36y Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 209.8711 59.0753 216.8 15 43.82

acsz-36z Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 210.5412 58.8129 217.3 15 30.88

acsz-37a Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 212.2505 59.2720 213.7 15 17.94

acsz-37b Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 212.9519 59.0312 213.7 15 5

acsz-37x Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 210.1726 60.0644 213 15 56.24

acsz-37y Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 210.8955 59.8251 213.7 15 43.82

acsz-37z Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 211.6079 59.5820 214.3 15 30.88

acsz-38a Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 214.6555 60.1351 260.1 0 15

acsz-38b Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 214.8088 59.6927 260.1 0 15

acsz-38y Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 214.3737 60.9838 259 0 15

acsz-38z Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 214.5362 60.5429 259 0 15

acsz-39a Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 216.5607 60.2480 267 0 15

acsz-39b Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 216.6068 59.7994 267 0 15

acsz-40a Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 219.3069 59.7574 310.9 0 15

acsz-40b Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 218.7288 59.4180 310.9 0 15

acsz-41a Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 220.4832 59.3390 300.7 0 15

acsz-41b Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 220.0382 58.9529 300.7 0 15

acsz-42a Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 221.8835 58.9310 298.9 0 15

acsz-42b Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 221.4671 58.5379 298.9 0 15

acsz-43a Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 222.9711 58.6934 282.3 0 15

acsz-43b Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 222.7887 58.2546 282.3 0 15

acsz-44a Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 224.9379 57.9054 340.9 12 11.09

acsz-44b Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 224.1596 57.7617 340.9 7 5

acsz-45a Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 225.4994 57.1634 334.1 12 11.09

acsz-45b Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 224.7740 56.9718 334.1 7 5

acsz-46a Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 226.1459 56.3552 334.1 12 11.09

acsz-46b Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 225.4358 56.1636 334.1 7 5

acsz-47a Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 226.7731 55.5830 332.3 12 11.09

acsz-47b Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 226.0887 55.3785 332.3 7 5

acsz-48a Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 227.4799 54.6763 339.4 12 11.09

acsz-48b Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 226.7713 54.5217 339.4 7 5

acsz-49a Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 227.9482 53.8155 341.2 12 11.09

acsz-49b Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 227.2462 53.6737 341.2 7 5

acsz-50a Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 228.3970 53.2509 324.5 12 11.09

acsz-50b Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 227.8027 52.9958 324.5 7 5

acsz-51a Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 229.1844 52.6297 318.4 12 11.09

continued on next page

Table B1: (continued)
74 Eble et al.

Segment Description

Longitude

(°E)

Latitude

(°N)

Strike

(°)

Dip

(°)

Depth 

(km)

acsz-51b Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 228.6470 52.3378 318.4 7 5

acsz-52a Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 230.0306 52.0768 310.9 12 11.09

acsz-52b Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 229.5665 51.7445 310.9 7 5

acsz-53a Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 231.1735 51.5258 310.9 12 11.09

acsz-53b Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 230.7150 51.1935 310.9 7 5

acsz-54a Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 232.2453 50.8809 314.1 12 11.09

acsz-54b Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 231.7639 50.5655 314.1 7 5

acsz-55a Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 233.3066 49.9032 333.7 12 11.09

acsz-55b Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 232.6975 49.7086 333.7 7 5

acsz-56a Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 234.0588 49.1702 315 11 12.82

acsz-56b Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 233.5849 48.8584 315 9 5

acsz-57a Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 234.9041 48.2596 341 11 12.82

acsz-57b Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 234.2797 48.1161 341 9 5

acsz-58a Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 235.3021 47.3812 344 11 12.82

acsz-58b Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 234.6776 47.2597 344 9 5

acsz-59a Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 235.6432 46.5082 345 11 12.82

acsz-59b Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 235.0257 46.3941 345 9 5

acsz-60a Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 235.8640 45.5429 356 11 12.82

acsz-60b Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 235.2363 45.5121 356 9 5

acsz-61a Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 235.9106 44.6227 359 11 12.82

acsz-61b Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 235.2913 44.6150 359 9 5

acsz-62a Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 235.9229 43.7245 359 11 12.82

acsz-62b Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 235.3130 43.7168 359 9 5

acsz-63a Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 236.0220 42.9020 350 11 12.82

acsz-63b Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 235.4300 42.8254 350 9 5

acsz-64a Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 235.9638 41.9818 345 11 12.82

acsz-64b Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 235.3919 41.8677 345 9 5

acsz-65a Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 236.2643 41.1141 345 11 12.82

acsz-65b Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 235.7000 41.0000 345 9 5

acsz-238a Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 213.2878 59.8406 236.8 15 17.94

acsz-238y Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 212.3424 60.5664 236.8 15 43.82

acsz-238z Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 212.8119 60.2035 236.8 15 30.88

Table B1: (continued)
PMEL Tsunami Forecast Series: Vol. 5—Newport, Oregon 75 

Figure B2: Central and South America Subduction Zone unit sources.

1

5 10 15

20 25

30 35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

 108°W 99°W 90°W 81°W 72°W 63°W

 54°S

 36°S

 18°S

 0° 

 18°N

b,a
76 Eble et al.

Segment Description

Longitude

(°E)

Latitude

(°N)

Strike

(°)

Dip

(°)

Depth 

(km)

cssz-1a Central and South America 254.4573 20.8170 359 19 15.4

cssz-1b Central and South America 254.0035 20.8094 359 12 5

cssz-1z Central and South America 254.7664 20.8222 359 50 31.67

cssz-2a Central and South America 254.5765 20.2806 336.8 19 15.4

cssz-2b Central and South America 254.1607 20.1130 336.8 12 5

cssz-3a Central and South America 254.8789 19.8923 310.6 18.31 15.27

cssz-3b Central and South America 254.5841 19.5685 310.6 11.85 5

cssz-4a Central and South America 255.6167 19.2649 313.4 17.62 15.12

cssz-4b Central and South America 255.3056 18.9537 313.4 11.68 5

cssz-5a Central and South America 256.2240 18.8148 302.7 16.92 15

cssz-5b Central and South America 255.9790 18.4532 302.7 11.54 5

cssz-6a Central and South America 256.9425 18.4383 295.1 16.23 14.87

cssz-6b Central and South America 256.7495 18.0479 295.1 11.38 5

cssz-7a Central and South America 257.8137 18.0339 296.9 15.54 14.74

cssz-7b Central and South America 257.6079 17.6480 296.9 11.23 5

cssz-8a Central and South America 258.5779 17.7151 290.4 14.85 14.61

cssz-8b Central and South America 258.4191 17.3082 290.4 11.08 5

cssz-9a Central and South America 259.4578 17.4024 290.5 14.15 14.47

cssz-9b Central and South America 259.2983 16.9944 290.5 10.92 5

cssz-10a Central and South America 260.3385 17.0861 290.8 13.46 14.34

cssz-10b Central and South America 260.1768 16.6776 290.8 10.77 5

cssz-11a Central and South America 261.2255 16.7554 291.8 12.77 14.21

cssz-11b Central and South America 261.0556 16.3487 291.8 10.62 5

cssz-12a Central and South America 262.0561 16.4603 288.9 12.08 14.08

cssz-12b Central and South America 261.9082 16.0447 288.9 10.46 5

cssz-13a Central and South America 262.8638 16.2381 283.2 11.38 13.95

cssz-13b Central and South America 262.7593 15.8094 283.2 10.31 5

cssz-14a Central and South America 263.6066 16.1435 272.1 10.69 13.81

cssz-14b Central and South America 263.5901 15.7024 272.1 10.15 5

cssz-15a Central and South America 264.8259 15.8829 293 10 13.68

cssz-15b Central and South America 264.6462 15.4758 293 10 5

cssz-15y Central and South America 265.1865 16.6971 293 10 31.05

cssz-15z Central and South America 265.0060 16.2900 293 10 22.36

cssz-16a Central and South America 265.7928 15.3507 304.9 15 15.82

cssz-16b Central and South America 265.5353 14.9951 304.9 12.5 5

cssz-16y Central and South America 266.3092 16.0619 304.9 15 41.7

cssz-16z Central and South America 266.0508 15.7063 304.9 15 28.76

cssz-17a Central and South America 266.4947 14.9019 299.5 20 17.94

cssz-17b Central and South America 266.2797 14.5346 299.5 15 5

cssz-17y Central and South America 266.9259 15.6365 299.5 20 52.14

continued on next page

Table B2: Earthquake parameters for Central and South America Subduction Zone unit sources.
PMEL Tsunami Forecast Series: Vol. 5—Newport, Oregon 77 

Segment Description

Longitude

(°E)

Latitude

(°N)

Strike

(°)

Dip

(°)

Depth 

(km)

cssz-17z Central and South America 266.7101 15.2692 299.5 20 35.04

cssz-18a Central and South America 267.2827 14.4768 298 21.5 17.94

cssz-18b Central and South America 267.0802 14.1078 298 15 5

cssz-18y Central and South America 267.6888 15.2148 298 21.5 54.59

cssz-18z Central and South America 267.4856 14.8458 298 21.5 36.27

cssz-19a Central and South America 268.0919 14.0560 297.6 23 17.94

cssz-19b Central and South America 267.8943 13.6897 297.6 15 5

cssz-19y Central and South America 268.4880 14.7886 297.6 23 57.01

cssz-19z Central and South America 268.2898 14.4223 297.6 23 37.48

cssz-20a Central and South America 268.8929 13.6558 296.2 24 17.94

cssz-20b Central and South America 268.7064 13.2877 296.2 15 5

cssz-20y Central and South America 269.1796 14.2206 296.2 45.5 73.94

cssz-20z Central and South America 269.0362 13.9382 296.2 45.5 38.28

cssz-21a Central and South America 269.6797 13.3031 292.6 25 17.94

cssz-21b Central and South America 269.5187 12.9274 292.6 15 5

cssz-21x Central and South America 269.8797 13.7690 292.6 68 131.8

cssz-21y Central and South America 269.8130 13.6137 292.6 68 85.43

cssz-21z Central and South America 269.7463 13.4584 292.6 68 39.07

cssz-22a Central and South America 270.4823 13.0079 288.6 25 17.94

cssz-22b Central and South America 270.3492 12.6221 288.6 15 5

cssz-22x Central and South America 270.6476 13.4864 288.6 68 131.8

cssz-22y Central and South America 270.5925 13.3269 288.6 68 85.43

cssz-22z Central and South America 270.5374 13.1674 288.6 68 39.07

cssz-23a Central and South America 271.3961 12.6734 292.4 25 17.94

cssz-23b Central and South America 271.2369 12.2972 292.4 15 5

cssz-23x Central and South America 271.5938 13.1399 292.4 68 131.8

cssz-23y Central and South America 271.5279 12.9844 292.4 68 85.43

cssz-23z Central and South America 271.4620 12.8289 292.4 68 39.07

cssz-24a Central and South America 272.3203 12.2251 300.2 25 17.94

cssz-24b Central and South America 272.1107 11.8734 300.2 15 5

cssz-24x Central and South America 272.5917 12.6799 300.2 67 131.1

cssz-24y Central and South America 272.5012 12.5283 300.2 67 85.1

cssz-24z Central and South America 272.4107 12.3767 300.2 67 39.07

cssz-25a Central and South America 273.2075 11.5684 313.8 25 17.94

cssz-25b Central and South America 272.9200 11.2746 313.8 15 5

cssz-25x Central and South America 273.5950 11.9641 313.8 66 130.4

cssz-25y Central and South America 273.4658 11.8322 313.8 66 84.75

cssz-25z Central and South America 273.3366 11.7003 313.8 66 39.07

cssz-26a Central and South America 273.8943 10.8402 320.4 25 17.94

continued on next page

Table B2: (continued)
78 Eble et al.

Segment Description

Longitude

(°E)

Latitude

(°N)

Strike

(°)

Dip

(°)

Depth 

(km)

cssz-26b Central and South America 273.5750 10.5808 320.4 15 5

cssz-26x Central and South America 274.3246 11.1894 320.4 66 130.4

cssz-26y Central and South America 274.1811 11.0730 320.4 66 84.75

cssz-26z Central and South America 274.0377 10.9566 320.4 66 39.07

cssz-27a Central and South America 274.4569 10.2177 316.1 25 17.94

cssz-27b Central and South America 274.1590 9.9354 316.1 15 5

cssz-27z Central and South America 274.5907 10.3444 316.1 66 39.07

cssz-28a Central and South America 274.9586 9.8695 297.1 22 14.54

cssz-28b Central and South America 274.7661 9.4988 297.1 11 5

cssz-28z Central and South America 275.1118 10.1643 297.1 42.5 33.27

cssz-29a Central and South America 275.7686 9.4789 296.6 19 11.09

cssz-29b Central and South America 275.5759 9.0992 296.6 7 5

cssz-30a Central and South America 276.6346 8.9973 302.2 19 9.36

cssz-30b Central and South America 276.4053 8.6381 302.2 5 5

cssz-31a Central and South America 277.4554 8.4152 309.1 19 7.62

cssz-31b Central and South America 277.1851 8.0854 309.1 3 5

cssz-31z Central and South America 277.7260 8.7450 309.1 19 23.9

cssz-32a Central and South America 278.1112 7.9425 303 18.67 8.49

cssz-32b Central and South America 277.8775 7.5855 303 4 5

cssz-32z Central and South America 278.3407 8.2927 303 21.67 24.49

cssz-33a Central and South America 278.7082 7.6620 287.6 18.33 10.23

cssz-33b Central and South America 278.5785 7.2555 287.6 6 5

cssz-33z Central and South America 278.8328 8.0522 287.6 24.33 25.95

cssz-34a Central and South America 279.3184 7.5592 269.5 18 17.94

cssz-34b Central and South America 279.3223 7.1320 269.5 15 5

cssz-35a Central and South America 280.0039 7.6543 255.9 17.67 14.54

cssz-35b Central and South America 280.1090 7.2392 255.9 11 5

cssz-35x Central and South America 279.7156 8.7898 255.9 29.67 79.22

cssz-35y Central and South America 279.8118 8.4113 255.9 29.67 54.47

cssz-35z Central and South America 279.9079 8.0328 255.9 29.67 29.72

cssz-36a Central and South America 281.2882 7.6778 282.5 17.33 11.09

cssz-36b Central and South America 281.1948 7.2592 282.5 7 5

cssz-36x Central and South America 281.5368 8.7896 282.5 32.33 79.47

cssz-36y Central and South America 281.4539 8.4190 282.5 32.33 52.73

cssz-36z Central and South America 281.3710 8.0484 282.5 32.33 25.99

cssz-37a Central and South America 282.5252 6.8289 326.9 17 10.23

cssz-37b Central and South America 282.1629 6.5944 326.9 6 5

cssz-38a Central and South America 282.9469 5.5973 355.4 17 10.23

cssz-38b Central and South America 282.5167 5.5626 355.4 6 5

continued on next page

Table B2: (continued)
PMEL Tsunami Forecast Series: Vol. 5—Newport, Oregon 79 

Segment Description

Longitude

(°E)

Latitude

(°N)

Strike

(°)

Dip

(°)

Depth 

(km)

cssz-39a Central and South America 282.7236 4.3108 24.13 17 10.23

cssz-39b Central and South America 282.3305 4.4864 24.13 6 5

cssz-39z Central and South America 283.0603 4.1604 24.13 35 24.85

cssz-40a Central and South America 282.1940 3.3863 35.28 17 10.23

cssz-40b Central and South America 281.8427 3.6344 35.28 6 5

cssz-40y Central and South America 282.7956 2.9613 35.28 35 53.52

cssz-40z Central and South America 282.4948 3.1738 35.28 35 24.85

cssz-41a Central and South America 281.6890 2.6611 34.27 17 10.23

cssz-41b Central and South America 281.3336 2.9030 34.27 6 5

cssz-41z Central and South America 281.9933 2.4539 34.27 35 24.85

cssz-42a Central and South America 281.2266 1.9444 31.29 17 10.23

cssz-42b Central and South America 280.8593 2.1675 31.29 6 5

cssz-42z Central and South America 281.5411 1.7533 31.29 35 24.85

cssz-43a Central and South America 280.7297 1.1593 33.3 17 10.23

cssz-43b Central and South America 280.3706 1.3951 33.3 6 5

cssz-43z Central and South America 281.0373 0.9573 33.3 35 24.85

cssz-44a Central and South America 280.3018 0.4491 28.8 17 10.23

cssz-44b Central and South America 279.9254 0.6560 28.8 6 5

cssz-45a Central and South America 279.9083 -0.3259 26.91 10 8.49

cssz-45b Central and South America 279.5139 -0.1257 26.91 4 5

cssz-46a Central and South America 279.6461 -0.9975 15.76 10 8.49

cssz-46b Central and South America 279.2203 -0.8774 15.76 4 5

cssz-47a Central and South America 279.4972 -1.7407 6.9 10 8.49

cssz-47b Central and South America 279.0579 -1.6876 6.9 4 5

cssz-48a Central and South America 279.3695 -2.6622 8.96 10 8.49

cssz-48b Central and South America 278.9321 -2.5933 8.96 4 5

cssz-48y Central and South America 280.2444 -2.8000 8.96 10 25.85

cssz-48z Central and South America 279.8070 -2.7311 8.96 10 17.17

cssz-49a Central and South America 279.1852 -3.6070 13.15 10 8.49

cssz-49b Central and South America 278.7536 -3.5064 13.15 4 5

cssz-49y Central and South America 280.0486 -3.8082 13.15 10 25.85

cssz-49z Central and South America 279.6169 -3.7076 13.15 10 17.17

cssz-50a Central and South America 279.0652 -4.3635 4.78 10.33 9.64

cssz-50b Central and South America 278.6235 -4.3267 4.78 5.33 5

cssz-51a Central and South America 279.0349 -5.1773 359.4 10.67 10.81

cssz-51b Central and South America 278.5915 -5.1817 359.4 6.67 5

cssz-52a Central and South America 279.1047 -5.9196 349.8 11 11.96

cssz-52b Central and South America 278.6685 -5.9981 349.8 8 5

cssz-53a Central and South America 279.3044 -6.6242 339.2 10.25 11.74

continued on next page

Table B2: (continued)
80 Eble et al.

Segment Description

Longitude

(°E)

Latitude

(°N)

Strike

(°)

Dip

(°)

Depth 

(km)

cssz-53b Central and South America 278.8884 -6.7811 339.2 7.75 5

cssz-53y Central and South America 280.1024 -6.3232 339.2 19.25 37.12

cssz-53z Central and South America 279.7035 -6.4737 339.2 19.25 20.64

cssz-54a Central and South America 279.6256 -7.4907 340.8 9.5 11.53

cssz-54b Central and South America 279.2036 -7.6365 340.8 7.5 5

cssz-54y Central and South America 280.4267 -7.2137 340.8 20.5 37.29

cssz-54z Central and South America 280.0262 -7.3522 340.8 20.5 19.78

cssz-55a Central and South America 279.9348 -8.2452 335.4 8.75 11.74

cssz-55b Central and South America 279.5269 -8.4301 335.4 7.75 5

cssz-55x Central and South America 281.0837 -7.7238 335.4 21.75 56.4

cssz-55y Central and South America 280.7009 -7.8976 335.4 21.75 37.88

cssz-55z Central and South America 280.3180 -8.0714 335.4 21.75 19.35

cssz-56a Central and South America 280.3172 -8.9958 331.6 8 11.09

cssz-56b Central and South America 279.9209 -9.2072 331.6 7 5

cssz-56x Central and South America 281.4212 -8.4063 331.6 23 57.13

cssz-56y Central and South America 281.0534 -8.6028 331.6 23 37.59

cssz-56z Central and South America 280.6854 -8.7993 331.6 23 18.05

cssz-57a Central and South America 280.7492 -9.7356 328.7 8.6 10.75

cssz-57b Central and South America 280.3640 -9.9663 328.7 6.6 5

cssz-57x Central and South America 281.8205 -9.0933 328.7 23.4 57.94

cssz-57y Central and South America 281.4636 -9.3074 328.7 23.4 38.08

cssz-57z Central and South America 281.1065 -9.5215 328.7 23.4 18.22

cssz-58a Central and South America 281.2275 -10.5350 330.5 9.2 10.4

cssz-58b Central and South America 280.8348 -10.7532 330.5 6.2 5

cssz-58y Central and South America 281.9548 -10.1306 330.5 23.8 38.57

cssz-58z Central and South America 281.5913 -10.3328 330.5 23.8 18.39

cssz-59a Central and South America 281.6735 -11.2430 326.2 9.8 10.05

cssz-59b Central and South America 281.2982 -11.4890 326.2 5.8 5

cssz-59y Central and South America 282.3675 -10.7876 326.2 24.2 39.06

cssz-59z Central and South America 282.0206 -11.0153 326.2 24.2 18.56

cssz-60a Central and South America 282.1864 -11.9946 326.5 10.4 9.71

cssz-60b Central and South America 281.8096 -12.2384 326.5 5.4 5

cssz-60y Central and South America 282.8821 -11.5438 326.5 24.6 39.55

cssz-60z Central and South America 282.5344 -11.7692 326.5 24.6 18.73

cssz-61a Central and South America 282.6944 -12.7263 325.5 11 9.36

cssz-61b Central and South America 282.3218 -12.9762 325.5 5 5

cssz-61y Central and South America 283.3814 -12.2649 325.5 25 40.03

cssz-61z Central and South America 283.0381 -12.4956 325.5 25 18.9

cssz-62a Central and South America 283.1980 -13.3556 319 11 9.79

continued on next page

Table B2: (continued)
PMEL Tsunami Forecast Series: Vol. 5—Newport, Oregon 81 

Segment Description

Longitude

(°E)

Latitude

(°N)

Strike

(°)

Dip

(°)

Depth 

(km)

cssz-62b Central and South America 282.8560 -13.6451 319 5.5 5

cssz-62y Central and South America 283.8178 -12.8300 319 27 42.03

cssz-62z Central and South America 283.5081 -13.0928 319 27 19.33

cssz-63a Central and South America 283.8032 -14.0147 317.9 11 10.23

cssz-63b Central and South America 283.4661 -14.3106 317.9 6 5

cssz-63z Central and South America 284.1032 -13.7511 317.9 29 19.77

cssz-64a Central and South America 284.4144 -14.6482 315.7 13 11.96

cssz-64b Central and South America 284.0905 -14.9540 315.7 8 5

cssz-65a Central and South America 285.0493 -15.2554 313.2 15 13.68

cssz-65b Central and South America 284.7411 -15.5715 313.2 10 5

cssz-66a Central and South America 285.6954 -15.7816 307.7 14.5 13.68

cssz-66b Central and South America 285.4190 -16.1258 307.7 10 5

cssz-67a Central and South America 286.4127 -16.2781 304.3 14 13.68

cssz-67b Central and South America 286.1566 -16.6381 304.3 10 5

cssz-67z Central and South America 286.6552 -15.9365 304.3 23 25.78

cssz-68a Central and South America 287.2481 -16.9016 311.8 14 13.68

cssz-68b Central and South America 286.9442 -17.2264 311.8 10 5

cssz-68z Central and South America 287.5291 -16.6007 311.8 26 25.78

cssz-69a Central and South America 287.9724 -17.5502 314.9 14 13.68

cssz-69b Central and South America 287.6496 -17.8590 314.9 10 5

cssz-69y Central and South America 288.5530 -16.9934 314.9 29 50.02

cssz-69z Central and South America 288.2629 -17.2718 314.9 29 25.78

cssz-70a Central and South America 288.6731 -18.2747 320.4 14 13.25

cssz-70b Central and South America 288.3193 -18.5527 320.4 9.5 5

cssz-70y Central and South America 289.3032 -17.7785 320.4 30 50.35

cssz-70z Central and South America 288.9884 -18.0266 320.4 30 25.35

cssz-71a Central and South America 289.3089 -19.1854 333.2 14 12.82

cssz-71b Central and South America 288.8968 -19.3820 333.2 9 5

cssz-71y Central and South America 290.0357 -18.8382 333.2 31 50.67

cssz-71z Central and South America 289.6725 -19.0118 333.2 31 24.92

cssz-72a Central and South America 289.6857 -20.3117 352.4 14 12.54

cssz-72b Central and South America 289.2250 -20.3694 352.4 8.67 5

cssz-72z Central and South America 290.0882 -20.2613 352.4 32 24.63

cssz-73a Central and South America 289.7731 -21.3061 358.9 14 12.24

cssz-73b Central and South America 289.3053 -21.3142 358.9 8.33 5

cssz-73z Central and South America 290.1768 -21.2991 358.9 33 24.34

cssz-74a Central and South America 289.7610 -22.2671 3.06 14 11.96

cssz-74b Central and South America 289.2909 -22.2438 3.06 8 5

continued on next page

Table B2: (continued)
82 Eble et al.

Segment Description

Longitude

(°E)

Latitude

(°N)

Strike

(°)

Dip

(°)

Depth 

(km)

cssz-75a Central and South America 289.6982 -23.1903 4.83 14.09 11.96

cssz-75b Central and South America 289.2261 -23.1536 4.83 8 5

cssz-76a Central and South America 289.6237 -24.0831 4.67 14.18 11.96

cssz-76b Central and South America 289.1484 -24.0476 4.67 8 5

cssz-77a Central and South America 289.5538 -24.9729 4.3 14.27 11.96

cssz-77b Central and South America 289.0750 -24.9403 4.3 8 5

cssz-78a Central and South America 289.4904 -25.8621 3.86 14.36 11.96

cssz-78b Central and South America 289.0081 -25.8328 3.86 8 5

cssz-79a Central and South America 289.3491 -26.8644 11.34 14.45 11.96

cssz-79b Central and South America 288.8712 -26.7789 11.34 8 5

cssz-80a Central and South America 289.1231 -27.7826 14.16 14.54 11.96

cssz-80b Central and South America 288.6469 -27.6762 14.16 8 5

cssz-81a Central and South America 288.8943 -28.6409 13.19 14.63 11.96

cssz-81b Central and South America 288.4124 -28.5417 13.19 8 5

cssz-82a Central and South America 288.7113 -29.4680 9.68 14.72 11.96

cssz-82b Central and South America 288.2196 -29.3950 9.68 8 5

cssz-83a Central and South America 288.5944 -30.2923 5.36 14.81 11.96

cssz-83b Central and South America 288.0938 -30.2517 5.36 8 5

cssz-84a Central and South America 288.5223 -31.1639 3.8 14.9 11.96

cssz-84b Central and South America 288.0163 -31.1351 3.8 8 5

cssz-85a Central and South America 288.4748 -32.0416 2.55 15 11.96

cssz-85b Central and South America 287.9635 -32.0223 2.55 8 5

cssz-86a Central and South America 288.3901 -33.0041 7.01 15 11.96

cssz-86b Central and South America 287.8768 -32.9512 7.01 8 5

cssz-87a Central and South America 288.1050 -34.0583 19.4 15 11.96

cssz-87b Central and South America 287.6115 -33.9142 19.4 8 5

cssz-88a Central and South America 287.5309 -35.0437 32.81 15 11.96

cssz-88b Central and South America 287.0862 -34.8086 32.81 8 5

cssz-88z Central and South America 287.9308 -35.2545 32.81 30 24.9

cssz-89a Central and South America 287.2380 -35.5993 14.52 16.67 11.96

cssz-89b Central and South America 286.7261 -35.4914 14.52 8 5

cssz-89z Central and South America 287.7014 -35.6968 14.52 30 26.3

cssz-90a Central and South America 286.8442 -36.5645 22.64 18.33 11.96

cssz-90b Central and South America 286.3548 -36.4004 22.64 8 5

cssz-90z Central and South America 287.2916 -36.7142 22.64 30 27.68

cssz-91a Central and South America 286.5925 -37.2488 10.9 20 11.96

cssz-91b Central and South America 286.0721 -37.1690 10.9 8 5

cssz-91z Central and South America 287.0726 -37.3224 10.9 30 29.06

continued on next page

Table B2: (continued)
PMEL Tsunami Forecast Series: Vol. 5—Newport, Oregon 83 

Segment Description

Longitude

(°E)

Latitude

(°N)

Strike

(°)

Dip

(°)

Depth 

(km)

cssz-92a Central and South America 286.4254 -38.0945 8.23 20 11.96

cssz-92b Central and South America 285.8948 -38.0341 8.23 8 5

cssz-92z Central and South America 286.9303 -38.1520 8.23 26.67 29.06

cssz-93a Central and South America 286.2047 -39.0535 13.46 20 11.96

cssz-93b Central and South America 285.6765 -38.9553 13.46 8 5

cssz-93z Central and South America 286.7216 -39.1495 13.46 23.33 29.06

cssz-94a Central and South America 286.0772 -39.7883 3.4 20 11.96

cssz-94b Central and South America 285.5290 -39.7633 3.4 8 5

cssz-94z Central and South America 286.6255 -39.8133 3.4 20 29.06

cssz-95a Central and South America 285.9426 -40.7760 9.84 20 11.96

cssz-95b Central and South America 285.3937 -40.7039 9.84 8 5

cssz-95z Central and South America 286.4921 -40.8481 9.84 20 29.06

cssz-96a Central and South America 285.7839 -41.6303 7.6 20 11.96

cssz-96b Central and South America 285.2245 -41.5745 7.6 8 5

cssz-96x Central and South America 287.4652 -41.7977 7.6 20 63.26

cssz-96y Central and South America 286.9043 -41.7419 7.6 20 46.16

cssz-96z Central and South America 286.3439 -41.6861 7.6 20 29.06

cssz-97a Central and South America 285.6695 -42.4882 5.3 20 11.96

cssz-97b Central and South America 285.0998 -42.4492 5.3 8 5

cssz-97x Central and South America 287.3809 -42.6052 5.3 20 63.26

cssz-97y Central and South America 286.8101 -42.5662 5.3 20 46.16

cssz-97z Central and South America 286.2396 -42.5272 5.3 20 29.06

cssz-98a Central and South America 285.5035 -43.4553 10.53 20 11.96

cssz-98b Central and South America 284.9322 -43.3782 10.53 8 5

cssz-98x Central and South America 287.2218 -43.6866 10.53 20 63.26

cssz-98y Central and South America 286.6483 -43.6095 10.53 20 46.16

cssz-98z Central and South America 286.0755 -43.5324 10.53 20 29.06

cssz-99a Central and South America 285.3700 -44.2595 4.86 20 11.96

cssz-99b Central and South America 284.7830 -44.2237 4.86 8 5

cssz-99x Central and South America 287.1332 -44.3669 4.86 20 63.26

cssz-99y Central and South America 286.5451 -44.3311 4.86 20 46.16

cssz-99z Central and South America 285.9574 -44.2953 4.86 20 29.06

cssz-100a Central and South America 285.2713 -45.1664 5.68 20 11.96

cssz-100b Central and South America 284.6758 -45.1246 5.68 8 5

cssz-100x Central and South America 287.0603 -45.2918 5.68 20 63.26

cssz-100y Central and South America 286.4635 -45.2500 5.68 20 46.16

cssz-100z Central and South America 285.8672 -45.2082 5.68 20 29.06

cssz-101a Central and South America 285.3080 -45.8607 352.6 20 9.36

continued on next page

Table B2: (continued)
84 Eble et al.

Segment Description

Longitude

(°E)

Latitude

(°N)

Strike

(°)

Dip

(°)

Depth 

(km)

cssz-101b Central and South America 284.7067 -45.9152 352.6 5 5

cssz-101y Central and South America 286.5089 -45.7517 352.6 20 43.56

cssz-101z Central and South America 285.9088 -45.8062 352.6 20 26.46

cssz-102a Central and South America 285.2028 -47.1185 17.72 5 9.36

cssz-102b Central and South America 284.5772 -46.9823 17.72 5 5

cssz-102y Central and South America 286.4588 -47.3909 17.72 5 18.07

cssz-102z Central and South America 285.8300 -47.2547 17.72 5 13.72

cssz-103a Central and South America 284.7075 -48.0396 23.37 7.5 11.53

cssz-103b Central and South America 284.0972 -47.8630 23.37 7.5 5

cssz-103x Central and South America 286.5511 -48.5694 23.37 7.5 31.11

cssz-103y Central and South America 285.9344 -48.3928 23.37 7.5 24.58

cssz-103z Central and South America 285.3199 -48.2162 23.37 7.5 18.05

cssz-104a Central and South America 284.3440 -48.7597 14.87 10 13.68

cssz-104b Central and South America 283.6962 -48.6462 14.87 10 5

cssz-104x Central and South America 286.2962 -49.1002 14.87 10 39.73

cssz-104y Central and South America 285.6440 -48.9867 14.87 10 31.05

cssz-104z Central and South America 284.9933 -48.8732 14.87 10 22.36

cssz-105a Central and South America 284.2312 -49.4198 0.25 9.67 13.4

cssz-105b Central and South America 283.5518 -49.4179 0.25 9.67 5

cssz-105x Central and South America 286.2718 -49.4255 0.25 9.67 38.59

cssz-105y Central and South America 285.5908 -49.4236 0.25 9.67 30.2

cssz-105z Central and South America 284.9114 -49.4217 0.25 9.67 21.8

cssz-106a Central and South America 284.3730 -50.1117 347.5 9.25 13.04

cssz-106b Central and South America 283.6974 -50.2077 347.5 9.25 5

cssz-106x Central and South America 286.3916 -49.8238 347.5 9.25 37.15

cssz-106y Central and South America 285.7201 -49.9198 347.5 9.25 29.11

cssz-106z Central and South America 285.0472 -50.0157 347.5 9.25 21.07

cssz-107a Central and South America 284.7130 -50.9714 346.5 9 12.82

cssz-107b Central and South America 284.0273 -51.0751 346.5 9 5

cssz-107x Central and South America 286.7611 -50.6603 346.5 9 36.29

cssz-107y Central and South America 286.0799 -50.7640 346.5 9 28.47

cssz-107z Central and South America 285.3972 -50.8677 346.5 9 20.64

cssz-108a Central and South America 285.0378 -51.9370 352 8.67 12.54

cssz-108b Central and South America 284.3241 -51.9987 352 8.67 5

cssz-108x Central and South America 287.1729 -51.7519 352 8.67 35.15

cssz-108y Central and South America 286.4622 -51.8136 352 8.67 27.61

cssz-108z Central and South America 285.7505 -51.8753 352 8.67 20.07

cssz-109a Central and South America 285.2635 -52.8439 353.1 8.33 12.24

cssz-109b Central and South America 284.5326 -52.8974 353.1 8.33 5

continued on next page

Table B2: (continued)
PMEL Tsunami Forecast Series: Vol. 5—Newport, Oregon 85 

Segment Description

Longitude

(°E)

Latitude

(°N)

Strike

(°)

Dip

(°)

Depth 

(km)

cssz-109x Central and South America 287.4508 -52.6834 353.1 8.33 33.97

cssz-109y Central and South America 286.7226 -52.7369 353.1 8.33 26.73

cssz-109z Central and South America 285.9935 -52.7904 353.1 8.33 19.49

cssz-110a Central and South America 285.5705 -53.4139 334.2 8 11.96

cssz-110b Central and South America 284.8972 -53.6076 334.2 8 5

cssz-110x Central and South America 287.5724 -52.8328 334.2 8 32.83

cssz-110y Central and South America 286.9081 -53.0265 334.2 8 25.88

cssz-110z Central and South America 286.2408 -53.2202 334.2 8 18.92

cssz-111a Central and South America 286.1627 -53.8749 313.8 8 11.96

cssz-111b Central and South America 285.6382 -54.1958 313.8 8 5

cssz-111x Central and South America 287.7124 -52.9122 313.8 8 32.83

cssz-111y Central and South America 287.1997 -53.2331 313.8 8 25.88

cssz-111z Central and South America 286.6832 -53.5540 313.8 8 18.92

cssz-112a Central and South America 287.3287 -54.5394 316.4 8 11.96

cssz-112b Central and South America 286.7715 -54.8462 316.4 8 5

cssz-112x Central and South America 288.9756 -53.6190 316.4 8 32.83

cssz-112y Central and South America 288.4307 -53.9258 316.4 8 25.88

cssz-112z Central and South America 287.8817 -54.2326 316.4 8 18.92

cssz-113a Central and South America 288.3409 -55.0480 307.6 8 11.96

cssz-113b Central and South America 287.8647 -55.4002 307.6 8 5

cssz-113x Central and South America 289.7450 -53.9914 307.6 8 32.83

cssz-113y Central and South America 289.2810 -54.3436 307.6 8 25.88

cssz-113z Central and South America 288.8130 -54.6958 307.6 8 18.92

cssz-114a Central and South America 289.5342 -55.5026 301.5 8 11.96

cssz-114b Central and South America 289.1221 -55.8819 301.5 8 5

cssz-114x Central and South America 290.7472 -54.3647 301.5 8 32.83

cssz-114y Central and South America 290.3467 -54.7440 301.5 8 25.88

cssz-114z Central and South America 289.9424 -55.1233 301.5 8 18.92

cssz-115a Central and South America 290.7682 -55.8485 292.7 8 11.96

cssz-115b Central and South America 290.4608 -56.2588 292.7 8 5

cssz-115x Central and South America 291.6714 -54.6176 292.7 8 32.83

cssz-115y Central and South America 291.3734 -55.0279 292.7 8 25.88

cssz-115z Central and South America 291.0724 -55.4382 292.7 8 18.92

Table B2: (continued)

PMEL Tsunami Forecast Series: Vol. 5—Newport, Oregon 87 

Figure B3: Eastern Philippines Subduction Zone unit sources.

 120°E 123°E 126°E 129°E 132°E

 0° 

 4°N

 8°N

 12°N

 16°N

 20°N

1

3

5

7

9

11

13

15

17

19

21

a,b
88 Eble et al.

Segment Description

Longitude

(°E)

Latitude

(°N)

Strike

(°)

Dip

(°)

Depth 

(km)

epsz-0a Eastern Philippines 128.5264 1.5930 180 44 26.92

epsz-0b Eastern Philippines 128.8496 1.5930 180 26 5

epsz-1a Eastern Philippines 128.5521 2.3289 153.6 44.2 27.62

epsz-1b Eastern Philippines 128.8408 2.4720 153.6 26.9 5

epsz-2a Eastern Philippines 128.1943 3.1508 151.9 45.9 32.44

epsz-2b Eastern Philippines 128.4706 3.2979 151.9 32.8 5.35

epsz-3a Eastern Philippines 127.8899 4.0428 155.2 57.3 40.22

epsz-3b Eastern Philippines 128.1108 4.1445 155.2 42.7 6.31

epsz-4a Eastern Philippines 127.6120 4.8371 146.8 71.4 48.25

epsz-4b Eastern Philippines 127.7324 4.9155 146.8 54.8 7.39

epsz-5a Eastern Philippines 127.3173 5.7040 162.9 79.9 57.4

epsz-5b Eastern Philippines 127.3930 5.7272 162.9 79.4 8.25

epsz-6a Eastern Philippines 126.6488 6.6027 178.9 48.6 45.09

epsz-6b Eastern Philippines 126.9478 6.6085 178.9 48.6 7.58

epsz-7a Eastern Philippines 126.6578 7.4711 175.8 50.7 45.52

epsz-7b Eastern Philippines 126.9439 7.4921 175.8 50.7 6.83

epsz-8a Eastern Philippines 126.6227 8.2456 163.3 56.7 45.6

epsz-8b Eastern Philippines 126.8614 8.3164 163.3 48.9 7.92

epsz-9a Eastern Philippines 126.2751 9.0961 164.1 47 43.59

epsz-9b Eastern Philippines 126.5735 9.1801 164.1 44.9 8.3

epsz-10a Eastern Philippines 125.9798 9.9559 164.5 43.1 42.25

epsz-10b Eastern Philippines 126.3007 10.0438 164.5 43.1 8.09

epsz-11a Eastern Philippines 125.6079 10.6557 155 37.8 38.29

epsz-11b Eastern Philippines 125.9353 10.8059 155 37.8 7.64

epsz-12a Eastern Philippines 125.4697 11.7452 172.1 36 37.01

epsz-12b Eastern Philippines 125.8374 11.7949 172.1 36 7.62

epsz-13a Eastern Philippines 125.2238 12.1670 141.5 32.4 33.87

epsz-13b Eastern Philippines 125.5278 12.4029 141.5 32.4 7.08

epsz-14a Eastern Philippines 124.6476 13.1365 158.2 23 25.92

epsz-14b Eastern Philippines 125.0421 13.2898 158.2 23 6.38

epsz-15a Eastern Philippines 124.3107 13.9453 156.1 24.1 26.51

epsz-15b Eastern Philippines 124.6973 14.1113 156.1 24.1 6.09

epsz-16a Eastern Philippines 123.8998 14.4025 140.3 19.5 21.69

epsz-16b Eastern Philippines 124.2366 14.6728 140.3 19.5 5

epsz-17a Eastern Philippines 123.4604 14.7222 117.6 15.3 18.19

epsz-17b Eastern Philippines 123.6682 15.1062 117.6 15.3 5

epsz-18a Eastern Philippines 123.3946 14.7462 67.4 15 17.94

epsz-18b Eastern Philippines 123.2219 15.1467 67.4 15 5

epsz-19a Eastern Philippines 121.3638 15.7400 189.6 15 17.94

epsz-19b Eastern Philippines 121.8082 15.6674 189.6 15 5

epsz-20a Eastern Philippines 121.6833 16.7930 203.3 15 17.94

epsz-20b Eastern Philippines 122.0994 16.6216 203.3 15 5

epsz-21a Eastern Philippines 121.8279 17.3742 184.2 15 17.94

epsz-21b Eastern Philippines 122.2814 17.3425 184.2 15 5

Table B3: Earthquake parameters for Eastern Philippines Subduction Zone unit sources.
PMEL Tsunami Forecast Series: Vol. 5—Newport, Oregon 89 

Figure B4: Kamchatka–Bering Subduction Zone unit sources.

 144°E

 152°E 160°E 168°E

 176°E

 40°N

 44°N

 48°N

 52°N

 56°N

 60°N

1

3

5

z,a,b
90 Eble et al.

Segment Description

Longitude

(°E)

Latitude

(°N)

Strike

(°)

Dip

(°)

Depth 

(km)

kbsz-1a Kamchatka-Bering 161.8374 57.5485 201.5 29 26.13

kbsz-1b Kamchatka-Bering 162.5162 57.4030 202.1 25 5

kbsz-2a Kamchatka-Bering 162.4410 58.3816 201.7 29 26.13

kbsz-2b Kamchatka-Bering 163.1344 58.2343 202.3 25 5

kbsz-2z Kamchatka-Bering 161.7418 58.5249 201.1 29 50.37

kbsz-3a Kamchatka-Bering 163.5174 59.3493 218.9 29 26.13

kbsz-3b Kamchatka-Bering 164.1109 59.1001 219.4 25 5

kbsz-3z Kamchatka-Bering 162.9150 59.5958 218.4 29 50.37

kbsz-4a Kamchatka-Bering 164.7070 60.0632 222.2 29 26.13

kbsz-4b Kamchatka-Bering 165.2833 59.7968 222.7 25 5

kbsz-4z Kamchatka-Bering 164.1212 60.3270 221.7 29 50.37

kbsz-5a Kamchatka-Bering 165.8652 60.7261 220.5 29 26.13

kbsz-5b Kamchatka-Bering 166.4692 60.4683 221 25 5

Table B4: Earthquake parameters for Kamchatka–Bering Subduction Zone unit sources.
PMEL Tsunami Forecast Series: Vol. 5—Newport, Oregon 91 

Figure B5: Kamchatka–Kuril–Japan–Izu–Mariana–Yap Subduction Zone unit sources.

 130°E 140°E 150°E 160°E 170°E

 10°N

 20°N

 30°N

 40°N

 50°N

1

5

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

70

75

10

15

20

60 65

y,z,a,b,c
92 Eble et al.

Segment Description

Longitude

(°E)

Latitude

(°N)

Strike

(°)

Dip

(°)

Depth 

(km)

kisz-0a Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 162.8200 56.3667 194.4 29 26.13

kisz-0b Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 163.5057 56.2677 195 25 5

kisz-0z Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 162.1309 56.4618 193.8 29 50.37

kisz-1a Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 162.4318 55.5017 195 29 26.13

kisz-1b Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 163.1000 55.4000 195 25 5

kisz-1y Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 161.0884 55.7050 195 29 74.61

kisz-1z Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 161.7610 55.6033 195 29 50.37

kisz-2a Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 161.9883 54.6784 200 29 26.13

kisz-2b Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 162.6247 54.5440 200 25 5

kisz-2y Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 160.7072 54.9471 200 29 74.61

kisz-2z Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 161.3488 54.8127 200 29 50.37

kisz-3a Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 161.4385 53.8714 204 29 26.13

kisz-3b Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 162.0449 53.7116 204 25 5

kisz-3y Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 160.2164 54.1910 204 29 74.61

kisz-3z Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 160.8286 54.0312 204 29 50.37

kisz-4a Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 160.7926 53.1087 210 29 26.13

kisz-4b Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 161.3568 52.9123 210 25 5

kisz-4y Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 159.6539 53.5015 210 29 74.61

kisz-4z Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 160.2246 53.3051 210 29 50.37

kisz-5a Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 160.0211 52.4113 218 29 26.13

kisz-5b Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 160.5258 52.1694 218 25 5

kisz-5y Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 159.0005 52.8950 218 29 74.61

kisz-5z Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 159.5122 52.6531 218 29 50.37

kisz-6a Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 159.1272 51.7034 218 29 26.13

kisz-6b Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 159.6241 51.4615 218 25 5

kisz-6y Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 158.1228 52.1871 218 29 74.61

kisz-6z Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 158.6263 51.9452 218 29 50.37

kisz-7a Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 158.2625 50.9549 214 29 26.13

kisz-7b Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 158.7771 50.7352 214 25 5

kisz-7y Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 157.2236 51.3942 214 29 74.61

kisz-7z Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 157.7443 51.1745 214 29 50.37

kisz-8a Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 157.4712 50.2459 218 31 27.7

kisz-8b Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 157.9433 50.0089 218 27 5

kisz-8y Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 156.5176 50.7199 218 31 79.2

kisz-8z Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 156.9956 50.4829 218 31 53.45

kisz-9a Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 156.6114 49.5583 220 31 27.7

kisz-9b Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 157.0638 49.3109 220 27 5

kisz-9y Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 155.6974 50.0533 220 31 79.2

kisz-9z Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 156.1556 49.8058 220 31 53.45

continued on next page

Table B5: Earthquake parameters for Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap Subduction Zone

unit sources.
PMEL Tsunami Forecast Series: Vol. 5—Newport, Oregon 93 

Segment Description

Longitude

(°E)

Latitude

(°N)

Strike

(°)

Dip

(°)

Depth 

(km)

kisz-10a Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 155.7294 48.8804 221 31 27.7

kisz-10b Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 156.1690 48.6278 221 27 5

kisz-10y Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 154.8413 49.3856 221 31 79.2

kisz-10z Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 155.2865 49.1330 221 31 53.45

kisz-11a Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 154.8489 48.1821 219 31 27.7

kisz-11b Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 155.2955 47.9398 219 27 5

kisz-11y Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 153.9472 48.6667 219 31 79.2

kisz-11z Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 154.3991 48.4244 219 31 53.45

kisz-11c Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 156.0358 47.5374 39 57.89 4.602

kisz-12a Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 153.9994 47.4729 217 31 27.7

kisz-12b Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 154.4701 47.2320 217 27 5

kisz-12y Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 153.0856 47.9363 217 31 79.2

kisz-12z Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 153.5435 47.7046 217 31 53.45

kisz-12c Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 155.2208 46.8473 37 57.89 4.602

kisz-13a Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 153.2239 46.7564 218 31 27.7

kisz-13b Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 153.6648 46.5194 218 27 5

kisz-13y Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 152.3343 47.2304 218 31 79.2

kisz-13z Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 152.7801 46.9934 218 31 53.45

kisz-13c Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 154.3957 46.1257 38 57.89 4.602

kisz-14a Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 152.3657 46.1514 225 23 24.54

kisz-14b Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 152.7855 45.8591 225 23 5

kisz-14y Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 151.5172 46.7362 225 23 63.62

kisz-14z Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 151.9426 46.4438 225 23 44.08

kisz-14c Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 153.4468 45.3976 45 57.89 4.602

kisz-15a Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 151.4663 45.5963 233 25 23.73

kisz-15b Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 151.8144 45.2712 233 22 5

kisz-15y Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 150.7619 46.2465 233 25 65.99

kisz-15z Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 151.1151 45.9214 233 25 44.86

kisz-16a Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 150.4572 45.0977 237 25 23.73

kisz-16b Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 150.7694 44.7563 237 22 5

kisz-16y Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 149.8253 45.7804 237 25 65.99

kisz-16z Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 150.1422 45.4390 237 25 44.86

kisz-17a Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 149.3989 44.6084 237 25 23.73

kisz-17b Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 149.7085 44.2670 237 22 5

kisz-17y Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 148.7723 45.2912 237 25 65.99

kisz-17z Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 149.0865 44.9498 237 25 44.86

kisz-18a Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 148.3454 44.0982 235 25 23.73

kisz-18b Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 148.6687 43.7647 235 22 5

kisz-18y Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 147.6915 44.7651 235 25 65.99

continued on next page

Table B5: (continued)
94 Eble et al.

Segment Description

Longitude

(°E)

Latitude

(°N)

Strike

(°)

Dip

(°)

Depth 

(km)

kisz-18z Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 148.0194 44.4316 235 25 44.86

kisz-19a Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 147.3262 43.5619 233 25 23.73

kisz-19b Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 147.6625 43.2368 233 22 5

kisz-19y Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 146.6463 44.2121 233 25 65.99

kisz-19z Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 146.9872 43.8870 233 25 44.86

kisz-20a Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 146.3513 43.0633 237 25 23.73

kisz-20b Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 146.6531 42.7219 237 22 5

kisz-20y Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 145.7410 43.7461 237 25 65.99

kisz-20z Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 146.0470 43.4047 237 25 44.86

kisz-21a Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 145.3331 42.5948 239 25 23.73

kisz-21b Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 145.6163 42.2459 239 22 5

kisz-21y Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 144.7603 43.2927 239 25 65.99

kisz-21z Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 145.0475 42.9438 239 25 44.86

kisz-22a Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 144.3041 42.1631 242 25 23.73

kisz-22b Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 144.5605 41.8037 242 22 5

kisz-22y Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 143.7854 42.8819 242 25 65.99

kisz-22z Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 144.0455 42.5225 242 25 44.86

kisz-23a Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 143.2863 41.3335 202 21 21.28

kisz-23b Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 143.8028 41.1764 202 19 5

kisz-23v Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 140.6816 42.1189 202 21 110.9

kisz-23w Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 141.2050 41.9618 202 21 92.95

kisz-23x Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 141.7273 41.8047 202 21 75.04

kisz-23y Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 142.2482 41.6476 202 21 57.12

kisz-23z Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 142.7679 41.4905 202 21 39.2

kisz-24a Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 142.9795 40.3490 185 21 21.28

kisz-24b Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 143.5273 40.3125 185 19 5

kisz-24x Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 141.3339 40.4587 185 21 75.04

kisz-24y Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 141.8827 40.4221 185 21 57.12

kisz-24z Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 142.4312 40.3856 185 21 39.2

kisz-25a Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 142.8839 39.4541 185 21 21.28

kisz-25b Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 143.4246 39.4176 185 19 5

kisz-25y Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 141.8012 39.5272 185 21 57.12

kisz-25z Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 142.3426 39.4907 185 21 39.2

kisz-26a Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 142.7622 38.5837 188 21 21.28

kisz-26b Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 143.2930 38.5254 188 19 5

kisz-26x Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 141.1667 38.7588 188 21 75.04

kisz-26y Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 141.6990 38.7004 188 21 57.12

kisz-26z Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 142.2308 38.6421 188 21 39.2

kisz-27a Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 142.5320 37.7830 198 21 21.28

continued on next page

Table B5: (continued)
PMEL Tsunami Forecast Series: Vol. 5—Newport, Oregon 95 

Segment Description

Longitude

(°E)

Latitude

(°N)

Strike

(°)

Dip

(°)

Depth 

(km)

kisz-27b Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 143.0357 37.6534 198 19 5

kisz-27x Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 141.0142 38.1717 198 21 75.04

kisz-27y Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 141.5210 38.0421 198 21 57.12

kisz-27z Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 142.0269 37.9126 198 21 39.2

kisz-28a Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 142.1315 37.0265 208 21 21.28

kisz-28b Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 142.5941 36.8297 208 19 5

kisz-28x Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 140.7348 37.6171 208 21 75.04

kisz-28y Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 141.2016 37.4202 208 21 57.12

kisz-28z Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 141.6671 37.2234 208 21 39.2

kisz-29a Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 141.5970 36.2640 211 21 21.28

kisz-29b Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 142.0416 36.0481 211 19 5

kisz-29y Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 140.7029 36.6960 211 21 57.12

kisz-29z Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 141.1506 36.4800 211 21 39.2

kisz-30a Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 141.0553 35.4332 205 21 21.28

kisz-30b Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 141.5207 35.2560 205 19 5

kisz-30y Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 140.1204 35.7876 205 21 57.12

kisz-30z Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 140.5883 35.6104 205 21 39.2

kisz-31a Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 140.6956 34.4789 190 22 22.1

kisz-31b Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 141.1927 34.4066 190 20 5

kisz-31v Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 138.2025 34.8405 190 22 115.8

kisz-31w Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 138.7021 34.7682 190 22 97.02

kisz-31x Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 139.2012 34.6958 190 22 78.29

kisz-31y Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 139.6997 34.6235 190 22 59.56

kisz-31z Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 140.1979 34.5512 190 22 40.83

kisz-32a Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 141.0551 33.0921 180 32 23.48

kisz-32b Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 141.5098 33.0921 180 21.69 5

kisz-33a Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 141.0924 32.1047 173.8 27.65 20.67

kisz-33b Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 141.5596 32.1473 173.8 18.27 5

kisz-34a Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 141.1869 31.1851 172.1 25 18.26

kisz-34b Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 141.6585 31.2408 172.1 15.38 5

kisz-35a Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 141.4154 30.1707 163 25 17.12

kisz-35b Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 141.8662 30.2899 163 14.03 5

kisz-36a Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 141.6261 29.2740 161.7 25.73 18.71

kisz-36b Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 142.0670 29.4012 161.7 15.91 5

kisz-37a Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 142.0120 28.3322 154.7 20 14.54

kisz-37b Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 142.4463 28.5124 154.7 11 5

kisz-38a Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 142.2254 27.6946 170.3 20 14.54

kisz-38b Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 142.6955 27.7659 170.3 11 5

kisz-39a Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 142.3085 26.9127 177.2 24.23 17.42

continued on next page

Table B5: (continued)
96 Eble et al.

Segment Description

Longitude

(°E)

Latitude

(°N)

Strike

(°)

Dip

(°)

Depth 

(km)

kisz-39b Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 142.7674 26.9325 177.2 14.38 5

kisz-40a Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 142.2673 26.1923 189.4 26.49 22.26

kisz-40b Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 142.7090 26.1264 189.4 20.2 5

kisz-41a Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 142.1595 25.0729 173.7 22.07 19.08

kisz-41b Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 142.6165 25.1184 173.7 16.36 5

kisz-42a Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 142.7641 23.8947 143.5 21.54 18.4

kisz-42b Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 143.1321 24.1432 143.5 15.54 5

kisz-43a Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 143.5281 23.0423 129.2 23.02 18.77

kisz-43b Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 143.8128 23.3626 129.2 15.99 5

kisz-44a Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 144.2230 22.5240 134.6 28.24 18.56

kisz-44b Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 144.5246 22.8056 134.6 15.74 5

kisz-45a Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 145.0895 21.8866 125.8 36.73 22.79

kisz-45b Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 145.3171 22.1785 125.8 20.84 5

kisz-46a Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 145.6972 21.3783 135.9 30.75 20.63

kisz-46b Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 145.9954 21.6469 135.9 18.22 5

kisz-47a Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 146.0406 20.9341 160.1 29.87 19.62

kisz-47b Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 146.4330 21.0669 160.1 17 5

kisz-48a Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 146.3836 20.0690 158 32.75 19.68

kisz-48b Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 146.7567 20.2108 158 17.07 5

kisz-49a Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 146.6689 19.3123 164.5 25.07 21.41

kisz-49b Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 147.0846 19.4212 164.5 19.16 5

kisz-50a Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 146.9297 18.5663 172.1 22 22.1

kisz-50b Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 147.3650 18.6238 172.1 20 5

kisz-51a Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 146.9495 17.7148 175.1 22.06 22.04

kisz-51b Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 147.3850 17.7503 175.1 19.93 5

kisz-52a Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 146.9447 16.8869 180 25.51 18.61

kisz-52b Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 147.3683 16.8869 180 15.79 5

kisz-53a Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 146.8626 16.0669 185.2 27.39 18.41

kisz-53b Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 147.2758 16.0309 185.2 15.56 5

kisz-54a Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 146.7068 15.3883 199.1 28.12 20.91

kisz-54b Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 147.0949 15.2590 199.1 18.56 5

kisz-55a Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 146.4717 14.6025 204.3 29.6 26.27

kisz-55b Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 146.8391 14.4415 204.3 25.18 5

kisz-56a Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 146.1678 13.9485 217.4 32.04 26.79

kisz-56b Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 146.4789 13.7170 217.4 25.84 5

kisz-57a Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 145.6515 13.5576 235.8 37 24.54

kisz-57b Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 145.8586 13.2609 235.8 23 5

kisz-58a Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 144.9648 12.9990 237.8 37.72 24.54

kisz-58b Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 145.1589 12.6984 237.8 23 5

continued on next page

Table B5: (continued)
PMEL Tsunami Forecast Series: Vol. 5—Newport, Oregon 97 

Segment Description

Longitude

(°E)

Latitude

(°N)

Strike

(°)

Dip

(°)

Depth 

(km)

kisz-59a Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 144.1799 12.6914 242.9 34.33 22.31

kisz-59b Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 144.3531 12.3613 242.9 20.25 5

kisz-60a Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 143.3687 12.3280 244.9 30.9 20.62

kisz-60b Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 143.5355 11.9788 244.9 18.2 5

kisz-61a Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 142.7051 12.1507 261.8 35.41 25.51

kisz-61b Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 142.7582 11.7883 261.8 24.22 5

kisz-62a Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 141.6301 11.8447 245.7 39.86 34.35

kisz-62b Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 141.7750 11.5305 245.7 35.94 5

kisz-63a Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 140.8923 11.5740 256.2 42 38.46

kisz-63b Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 140.9735 11.2498 256.2 42 5

kisz-64a Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 140.1387 11.6028 269.6 42.48 38.77

kisz-64b Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 140.1410 11.2716 269.6 42.48 5

kisz-65a Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 139.4595 11.5883 288.7 44.16 39.83

kisz-65b Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 139.3541 11.2831 288.7 44.16 5

kisz-66a Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 138.1823 11.2648 193.1 45 40.36

kisz-66b Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 138.4977 11.1929 193.1 45 5

kisz-67a Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 137.9923 10.3398 189.8 45 40.36

kisz-67b Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 138.3104 10.2856 189.8 45 5

kisz-68a Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 137.7607 9.6136 201.7 45 40.36

kisz-68b Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 138.0599 9.4963 201.7 45 5

kisz-69a Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 137.4537 8.8996 213.5 45 40.36

kisz-69b Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 137.7215 8.7241 213.5 45 5

kisz-70a Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 137.0191 8.2872 226.5 45 40.36

kisz-70b Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 137.2400 8.0569 226.5 45 5

kisz-71a Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 136.3863 7.9078 263.9 45 40.36

kisz-71b Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 136.4202 7.5920 263.9 45 5

kisz-72a Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 135.6310 7.9130 276.9 45 40.36

kisz-72b Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 135.5926 7.5977 276.9 45 5

kisz-73a Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 134.3296 7.4541 224 45 40.36

kisz-73b Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 134.5600 7.2335 224 45 5

kisz-74a Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 133.7125 6.8621 228.1 45 40.36

kisz-74b Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 133.9263 6.6258 228.1 45 5

kisz-75a Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 133.0224 6.1221 217.7 45 40.36

kisz-75b Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 133.2751 5.9280 217.7 45 5

Table B5: (continued)

PMEL Tsuna

mi ForecastSeries: Vol. 5—Newport, Oregon 99 Figure B6: Manus–Oceanic Convergent Boundary Subduction Zone unit sources. 135°E 140°E 145°E 150°E 155°E

 0°

 3°S

 6°S

 9°S 3°N 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 , a,b
100 Eble et al.

Segment Description

Longitude

(°E)

Latitude

(°N)

Strike

(°)

Dip

(°)

Depth 

(km)

mosz-1a Manus-Oceanic Convergent Boundary 154.0737 -4.8960 140.2 15 15.88

mosz-1b Manus-Oceanic Convergent Boundary 154.4082 -4.6185 140.2 15 2.94

mosz-2a Manus-Oceanic Convergent Boundary 153.5589 -4.1575 140.2 15 15.91

mosz-2b Manus-Oceanic Convergent Boundary 153.8931 -3.8800 140.2 15 2.97

mosz-3a Manus-Oceanic Convergent Boundary 153.0151 -3.3716 143.9 15 16.64

mosz-3b Manus-Oceanic Convergent Boundary 153.3662 -3.1160 143.9 15 3.7

mosz-4a Manus-Oceanic Convergent Boundary 152.4667 -3.0241 127.7 15 17.32

mosz-4b Manus-Oceanic Convergent Boundary 152.7321 -2.6806 127.7 15 4.38

mosz-5a Manus-Oceanic Convergent Boundary 151.8447 -2.7066 114.3 15 17.57

mosz-5b Manus-Oceanic Convergent Boundary 152.0235 -2.3112 114.3 15 4.63

mosz-6a Manus-Oceanic Convergent Boundary 151.0679 -2.2550 115 15 17.66

mosz-6b Manus-Oceanic Convergent Boundary 151.2513 -1.8618 115 15 4.72

mosz-7a Manus-Oceanic Convergent Boundary 150.3210 -2.0236 107.2 15 17.73

mosz-7b Manus-Oceanic Convergent Boundary 150.4493 -1.6092 107.2 15 4.79

mosz-8a Manus-Oceanic Convergent Boundary 149.3226 -1.6666 117.8 15 17.83

mosz-8b Manus-Oceanic Convergent Boundary 149.5251 -1.2829 117.8 15 4.89

mosz-9a Manus-Oceanic Convergent Boundary 148.5865 -1.3017 112.7 15 17.84

mosz-9b Manus-Oceanic Convergent Boundary 148.7540 -0.9015 112.7 15 4.9

mosz-10a Manus-Oceanic Convergent Boundary 147.7760 -1.1560 108 15 17.78

mosz-10b Manus-Oceanic Convergent Boundary 147.9102 -0.7434 108 15 4.84

mosz-11a Manus-Oceanic Convergent Boundary 146.9596 -1.1226 102.5 15 17.54

mosz-11b Manus-Oceanic Convergent Boundary 147.0531 -0.6990 102.5 15 4.6

mosz-12a Manus-Oceanic Convergent Boundary 146.2858 -1.1820 87.48 15 17.29

mosz-12b Manus-Oceanic Convergent Boundary 146.2667 -0.7486 87.48 15 4.35

mosz-13a Manus-Oceanic Convergent Boundary 145.4540 -1.3214 83.75 15 17.34

mosz-13b Manus-Oceanic Convergent Boundary 145.4068 -0.8901 83.75 15 4.4

mosz-14a Manus-Oceanic Convergent Boundary 144.7151 -1.5346 75.09 15 17.21

mosz-14b Manus-Oceanic Convergent Boundary 144.6035 -1.1154 75.09 15 4.27

mosz-15a Manus-Oceanic Convergent Boundary 143.9394 -1.8278 70.43 15 16.52

mosz-15b Manus-Oceanic Convergent Boundary 143.7940 -1.4190 70.43 15 3.58

mosz-16a Manus-Oceanic Convergent Boundary 143.4850 -2.2118 50.79 15 15.86

mosz-16b Manus-Oceanic Convergent Boundary 143.2106 -1.8756 50.79 15 2.92

mosz-17a Manus-Oceanic Convergent Boundary 143.1655 -2.7580 33 15 16.64

mosz-17b Manus-Oceanic Convergent Boundary 142.8013 -2.5217 33 15 3.7

Table B6: Earthquake parameters for Manus–Oceanic Convergent Boundary Subduction Zone unit

sources.
PMEL Tsuna

mi ForecastSeries: Vol. 5—Newport, Oregon 101 Figure B7: New Guinea Subduction Zone unit sources. 130°E 135°E 140°E 145°E 150°E

 0°

 3°S

 6°S

 9°S 3°N 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 b, a
102 Eble et al.

Segment Description

Longitude

(°E)

Latitude

(°N)

Strike

(°)

Dip

(°)

Depth 

(km)

ngsz-1a New Guinea 143.6063 -4.3804 120 29 25.64

ngsz-1b New Guinea 143.8032 -4.0402 120 29 1.4

ngsz-2a New Guinea 142.9310 -3.9263 114 27.63 20.1

ngsz-2b New Guinea 143.0932 -3.5628 114 21.72 1.6

ngsz-3a New Guinea 142.1076 -3.5632 114 20.06 18.73

ngsz-3b New Guinea 142.2795 -3.1778 114 15.94 5

ngsz-4a New Guinea 141.2681 -3.2376 114 21 17.76

ngsz-4b New Guinea 141.4389 -2.8545 114 14.79 5

ngsz-5a New Guinea 140.4592 -2.8429 114 21.26 16.14

ngsz-5b New Guinea 140.6296 -2.4605 114 12.87 5

ngsz-6a New Guinea 139.6288 -2.4960 114 22.72 15.4

ngsz-6b New Guinea 139.7974 -2.1175 114 12 5

ngsz-7a New Guinea 138.8074 -2.1312 114 21.39 15.4

ngsz-7b New Guinea 138.9776 -1.7491 114 12 5

ngsz-8a New Guinea 138.0185 -1.7353 113.1 18.79 15.14

ngsz-8b New Guinea 138.1853 -1.3441 113.1 11.7 5

ngsz-9a New Guinea 137.1805 -1.5037 111 15.24 13.23

ngsz-9b New Guinea 137.3358 -1.0991 111 9.47 5

ngsz-10a New Guinea 136.3418 -1.1774 111 13.51 11.09

ngsz-10b New Guinea 136.4983 -0.7697 111 7 5

ngsz-11a New Guinea 135.4984 -0.8641 111 11.38 12.49

ngsz-11b New Guinea 135.6562 -0.4530 111 8.62 5

ngsz-12a New Guinea 134.6759 -0.5216 110.5 10 13.68

ngsz-12b New Guinea 134.8307 -0.1072 110.5 10 5

ngsz-13a New Guinea 133.3065 -1.0298 99.5 10 13.68

ngsz-13b New Guinea 133.3795 -0.5935 99.5 10 5

ngsz-14a New Guinea 132.4048 -0.8816 99.5 10 13.68

ngsz-14b New Guinea 132.4778 -0.4453 99.5 10 5

ngsz-15a New Guinea 131.5141 -0.7353 99.5 10 13.68

ngsz-15b New Guinea 131.5871 -0.2990 99.5 10 5

Table B7: Earthquake parameters for New Guinea Subduction Zone unit sources.
PMEL Tsunami Forecast Series: Vol. 5—Newport, Oregon 103 

Figure B8: New Zealand–Kermadec–Tonga Subduction Zone unit sources.

 175°E 180°W 175°W 170°W

 42°S

 36°S

 30°S

 24°S

 18°S

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

a,

b,

c
104 Eble et al.

Segment Description

Longitude

(°E)

Latitude

(°N)

Strike

(°)

Dip

(°)

Depth 

(km)

ntsz-1a New Zealand–Kermadec–Tonga 174.0985 -41.3951 258.6 24 25.34

ntsz-1b New Zealand–Kermadec–Tonga 174.2076 -41.7973 258.6 24 5

ntsz-2a New Zealand–Kermadec–Tonga 175.3289 -41.2592 260.6 29.38 23.17

ntsz-2b New Zealand–Kermadec–Tonga 175.4142 -41.6454 260.6 21.31 5

ntsz-3a New Zealand–Kermadec–Tonga 176.2855 -40.9950 250.7 29.54 21.74

ntsz-3b New Zealand–Kermadec–Tonga 176.4580 -41.3637 250.7 19.56 5

ntsz-4a New Zealand–Kermadec–Tonga 177.0023 -40.7679 229.4 24.43 18.87

ntsz-4b New Zealand–Kermadec–Tonga 177.3552 -41.0785 229.4 16.1 5

ntsz-5a New Zealand–Kermadec–Tonga 177.4114 -40.2396 210 18.8 19.29

ntsz-5b New Zealand–Kermadec–Tonga 177.8951 -40.4525 210 16.61 5

ntsz-6a New Zealand–Kermadec–Tonga 177.8036 -39.6085 196.7 18.17 15.8

ntsz-6b New Zealand–Kermadec–Tonga 178.3352 -39.7310 196.7 12.48 5

ntsz-7a New Zealand–Kermadec–Tonga 178.1676 -38.7480 197 28.1 17.85

ntsz-7b New Zealand–Kermadec–Tonga 178.6541 -38.8640 197 14.89 5

ntsz-8a New Zealand–Kermadec–Tonga 178.6263 -37.8501 201.4 31.47 18.78

ntsz-8b New Zealand–Kermadec–Tonga 179.0788 -37.9899 201.4 16 5

ntsz-9a New Zealand–Kermadec–Tonga 178.9833 -36.9770 202.2 29.58 20.02

ntsz-9b New Zealand–Kermadec–Tonga 179.4369 -37.1245 202.2 17.48 5

ntsz-10a New Zealand–Kermadec–Tonga 179.5534 -36.0655 210.6 32.1 20.72

ntsz-10b New Zealand–Kermadec–Tonga 179.9595 -36.2593 210.6 18.32 5

ntsz-11a New Zealand–Kermadec–Tonga 179.9267 -35.3538 201.7 25 16.09

ntsz-11b New Zealand–Kermadec–Tonga 180.3915 -35.5040 201.7 12.81 5

ntsz-12a New Zealand–Kermadec–Tonga 180.4433 -34.5759 201.2 25 15.46

ntsz-12b New Zealand–Kermadec–Tonga 180.9051 -34.7230 201.2 12.08 5

ntsz-13a New Zealand–Kermadec–Tonga 180.7990 -33.7707 199.8 25.87 19.06

ntsz-13b New Zealand–Kermadec–Tonga 181.2573 -33.9073 199.8 16.33 5

ntsz-14a New Zealand–Kermadec–Tonga 181.2828 -32.9288 202.4 31.28 22.73

ntsz-14b New Zealand–Kermadec–Tonga 181.7063 -33.0751 202.4 20.77 5

ntsz-15a New Zealand–Kermadec–Tonga 181.4918 -32.0035 205.4 32.33 22.64

ntsz-15b New Zealand–Kermadec–Tonga 181.8967 -32.1665 205.4 20.66 5

ntsz-16a New Zealand–Kermadec–Tonga 181.9781 -31.2535 205.5 34.29 23.59

ntsz-16b New Zealand–Kermadec–Tonga 182.3706 -31.4131 205.5 21.83 5

ntsz-17a New Zealand–Kermadec–Tonga 182.4819 -30.3859 210.3 37.6 25.58

ntsz-17b New Zealand–Kermadec–Tonga 182.8387 -30.5655 210.3 24.3 5

ntsz-18a New Zealand–Kermadec–Tonga 182.8176 -29.6545 201.6 37.65 26.13

ntsz-18b New Zealand–Kermadec–Tonga 183.1985 -29.7856 201.6 25 5

ntsz-19a New Zealand–Kermadec–Tonga 183.0622 -28.8739 195.7 34.41 26.13

ntsz-19b New Zealand–Kermadec–Tonga 183.4700 -28.9742 195.7 25 5

ntsz-20a New Zealand–Kermadec–Tonga 183.2724 -28.0967 188.8 38 26.13

ntsz-20b New Zealand–Kermadec–Tonga 183.6691 -28.1508 188.8 25 5

continued on next page

Table B8: Earthquake parameters for New Zealand–Kermadec–Tonga Subduction Zone unit sources.
PMEL Tsunami Forecast Series: Vol. 5—Newport, Oregon 105 

Segment Description

Longitude

(°E)

Latitude

(°N)

Strike

(°)

Dip

(°)

Depth 

(km)

ntsz-21a New Zealand–Kermadec–Tonga 183.5747 -27.1402 197.1 32.29 24.83

ntsz-21b New Zealand–Kermadec–Tonga 183.9829 -27.2518 197.1 23.37 5

ntsz-22a New Zealand–Kermadec–Tonga 183.6608 -26.4975 180 29.56 18.63

ntsz-22b New Zealand–Kermadec–Tonga 184.0974 -26.4975 180 15.82 5

ntsz-23a New Zealand–Kermadec–Tonga 183.7599 -25.5371 185.8 32.42 20.56

ntsz-23b New Zealand–Kermadec–Tonga 184.1781 -25.5752 185.8 18.13 5

ntsz-24a New Zealand–Kermadec–Tonga 183.9139 -24.6201 188.2 33.31 23.73

ntsz-24b New Zealand–Kermadec–Tonga 184.3228 -24.6734 188.2 22 5

ntsz-25a New Zealand–Kermadec–Tonga 184.1266 -23.5922 198.5 29.34 19.64

ntsz-25b New Zealand–Kermadec–Tonga 184.5322 -23.7163 198.5 17.03 5

ntsz-26a New Zealand–Kermadec–Tonga 184.6613 -22.6460 211.7 30.26 19.43

ntsz-26b New Zealand–Kermadec–Tonga 185.0196 -22.8497 211.7 16.78 5

ntsz-27a New Zealand–Kermadec–Tonga 185.0879 -21.9139 207.9 31.73 20.67

ntsz-27b New Zealand–Kermadec–Tonga 185.4522 -22.0928 207.9 18.27 5

ntsz-28a New Zealand–Kermadec–Tonga 185.4037 -21.1758 200.5 32.44 21.76

ntsz-28b New Zealand–Kermadec–Tonga 185.7849 -21.3084 200.5 19.58 5

ntsz-29a New Zealand–Kermadec–Tonga 185.8087 -20.2629 206.4 32.47 20.4

ntsz-29b New Zealand–Kermadec–Tonga 186.1710 -20.4312 206.4 17.94 5

ntsz-30a New Zealand–Kermadec–Tonga 186.1499 -19.5087 200.9 32.98 22.46

ntsz-30b New Zealand–Kermadec–Tonga 186.5236 -19.6432 200.9 20.44 5

ntsz-31a New Zealand–Kermadec–Tonga 186.3538 -18.7332 193.9 34.41 21.19

ntsz-31b New Zealand–Kermadec–Tonga 186.7339 -18.8221 193.9 18.89 5

ntsz-32a New Zealand–Kermadec–Tonga 186.5949 -17.8587 194.1 30 19.12

ntsz-32b New Zealand–Kermadec–Tonga 186.9914 -17.9536 194.1 16.4 5

ntsz-33a New Zealand–Kermadec–Tonga 186.8172 -17.0581 190 33.15 23.34

ntsz-33b New Zealand–Kermadec–Tonga 187.2047 -17.1237 190 21.52 5

ntsz-34a New Zealand–Kermadec–Tonga 186.7814 -16.2598 182.1 15 13.41

ntsz-34b New Zealand–Kermadec–Tonga 187.2330 -16.2759 182.1 9.68 5

ntsz-34c New Zealand–Kermadec–Tonga 187.9697 -16.4956 7.62 57.06 6.571

ntsz-35a New Zealand–Kermadec–Tonga 186.8000 -15.8563 149.8 15 12.17

ntsz-35b New Zealand–Kermadec–Tonga 187.1896 -15.6384 149.8 8.24 5

ntsz-35c New Zealand–Kermadec–Tonga 187.8776 -15.6325 342.4 57.06 6.571

ntsz-36a New Zealand–Kermadec–Tonga 186.5406 -15.3862 123.9 40.44 36.72

ntsz-36b New Zealand–Kermadec–Tonga 186.7381 -15.1025 123.9 39.38 5

ntsz-36c New Zealand–Kermadec–Tonga 187.3791 -14.9234 307 57.06 6.571

ntsz-37a New Zealand–Kermadec–Tonga 185.9883 -14.9861 102 68.94 30.99

ntsz-37b New Zealand–Kermadec–Tonga 186.0229 -14.8282 102 31.32 5

ntsz-38a New Zealand–Kermadec–Tonga 185.2067 -14.8259 88.4 80 26.13

ntsz-38b New Zealand–Kermadec–Tonga 185.2044 -14.7479 88.4 25 5

ntsz-39a New Zealand–Kermadec–Tonga 184.3412 -14.9409 82.55 80 26.13

ntsz-39b New Zealand–Kermadec–Tonga 184.3307 -14.8636 82.55 25 5

Table B8: (continued)

PMEL Tsuna

mi ForecastSeries: Vol. 5—Newport, Oregon 107 Figure B9: New Britain–Solomons–Vanuatu Subduction Zone unit sources.

 150°E 156°E 162°E 168°E 174°E

 25°S

 20°S

 15°S

 5°S

 10°S

1

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

a,b
108 Eble et al.

Segment Description

Longitude

(°E)

Latitude

(°N)

Strike

(°)

Dip

(°)

Depth 

(km)

nvsz-1a New Britain–Solomons–Vanuatu 148.6217 -6.4616 243.2 32.34 15.69

nvsz-1b New Britain–Solomons–Vanuatu 148.7943 -6.8002 234.2 12.34 5

nvsz-2a New Britain–Solomons–Vanuatu 149.7218 -6.1459 260.1 35.1 16.36

nvsz-2b New Britain–Solomons–Vanuatu 149.7856 -6.5079 260.1 13.13 5

nvsz-3a New Britain–Solomons–Vanuatu 150.4075 -5.9659 245.7 42.35 18.59

nvsz-3b New Britain–Solomons–Vanuatu 150.5450 -6.2684 245.7 15.77 5

nvsz-4a New Britain–Solomons–Vanuatu 151.1095 -5.5820 238.2 42.41 23.63

nvsz-4b New Britain–Solomons–Vanuatu 151.2851 -5.8639 238.2 21.88 5

nvsz-5a New Britain–Solomons–Vanuatu 152.0205 -5.1305 247.7 49.22 32.39

nvsz-5b New Britain–Solomons–Vanuatu 152.1322 -5.4020 247.7 33.22 5

nvsz-6a New Britain–Solomons–Vanuatu 153.3450 -5.1558 288.6 53.53 33.59

nvsz-6b New Britain–Solomons–Vanuatu 153.2595 -5.4089 288.6 34.87 5

nvsz-7a New Britain–Solomons–Vanuatu 154.3814 -5.6308 308.3 39.72 19.18

nvsz-7b New Britain–Solomons–Vanuatu 154.1658 -5.9017 308.3 16.48 5

nvsz-8a New Britain–Solomons–Vanuatu 155.1097 -6.3511 317.2 45.33 22.92

nvsz-8b New Britain–Solomons–Vanuatu 154.8764 -6.5656 317.2 21 5

nvsz-9a New Britain–Solomons–Vanuatu 155.5027 -6.7430 290.5 48.75 22.92

nvsz-9b New Britain–Solomons–Vanuatu 155.3981 -7.0204 290.5 21 5

nvsz-10a New Britain–Solomons–Vanuatu 156.4742 -7.2515 305.9 36.88 27.62

nvsz-10b New Britain–Solomons–Vanuatu 156.2619 -7.5427 305.9 26.9 5

nvsz-11a New Britain–Solomons–Vanuatu 157.0830 -7.8830 305.4 32.97 29.72

nvsz-11b New Britain–Solomons–Vanuatu 156.8627 -8.1903 305.4 29.63 5

nvsz-12a New Britain–Solomons–Vanuatu 157.6537 -8.1483 297.9 37.53 28.57

nvsz-12b New Britain–Solomons–Vanuatu 157.4850 -8.4630 297.9 28.13 5

nvsz-13a New Britain–Solomons–Vanuatu 158.5089 -8.5953 302.7 33.62 23.02

nvsz-13b New Britain–Solomons–Vanuatu 158.3042 -8.9099 302.7 21.12 5

nvsz-14a New Britain–Solomons–Vanuatu 159.1872 -8.9516 293.3 38.44 34.06

nvsz-14b New Britain–Solomons–Vanuatu 159.0461 -9.2747 293.3 35.54 5

nvsz-15a New Britain–Solomons–Vanuatu 159.9736 -9.5993 302.8 46.69 41.38

nvsz-15b New Britain–Solomons–Vanuatu 159.8044 -9.8584 302.8 46.69 5

nvsz-16a New Britain–Solomons–Vanuatu 160.7343 -10.0574 301 46.05 41

nvsz-16b New Britain–Solomons–Vanuatu 160.5712 -10.3246 301 46.05 5

nvsz-17a New Britain–Solomons–Vanuatu 161.4562 -10.5241 298.4 40.12 37.22

nvsz-17b New Britain–Solomons–Vanuatu 161.2900 -10.8263 298.4 40.12 5

nvsz-18a New Britain–Solomons–Vanuatu 162.0467 -10.6823 274.1 40.33 29.03

nvsz-18b New Britain–Solomons–Vanuatu 162.0219 -11.0238 274.1 28.72 5

nvsz-19a New Britain–Solomons–Vanuatu 162.7818 -10.5645 261.3 34.25 24.14

nvsz-19b New Britain–Solomons–Vanuatu 162.8392 -10.9315 261.3 22.51 5

nvsz-20a New Britain–Solomons–Vanuatu 163.7222 -10.5014 262.9 50.35 26.3

continued on next page

Table B9: Earthquake parameters for New Britain–Solomons–Vanuatu Subduction Zone unit sources.
PMEL Tsunami Forecast Series: Vol. 5—Newport, Oregon 109 

Segment Description

Longitude

(°E)

Latitude

(°N)

Strike

(°)

Dip

(°)

Depth 

(km)

nvsz-20b New Britain–Solomons–Vanuatu 163.7581 -10.7858 262.9 25.22 5

nvsz-21a New Britain–Solomons–Vanuatu 164.9445 -10.4183 287.9 40.31 23.3

nvsz-21b New Britain–Solomons–Vanuatu 164.8374 -10.7442 287.9 21.47 5

nvsz-22a New Britain–Solomons–Vanuatu 166.0261 -11.1069 317.1 42.39 20.78

nvsz-22b New Britain–Solomons–Vanuatu 165.7783 -11.3328 317.1 18.4 5

nvsz-23a New Britain–Solomons–Vanuatu 166.5179 -12.2260 342.4 47.95 22.43

nvsz-23b New Britain–Solomons–Vanuatu 166.2244 -12.3171 342.4 20.4 5

nvsz-24a New Britain–Solomons–Vanuatu 166.7236 -13.1065 342.6 47.13 28.52

nvsz-24b New Britain–Solomons–Vanuatu 166.4241 -13.1979 342.6 28.06 5

nvsz-25a New Britain–Solomons–Vanuatu 166.8914 -14.0785 350.3 54.1 31.16

nvsz-25b New Britain–Solomons–Vanuatu 166.6237 -14.1230 350.3 31.55 5

nvsz-26a New Britain–Solomons–Vanuatu 166.9200 -15.1450 365.6 50.46 29.05

nvsz-26b New Britain–Solomons–Vanuatu 166.6252 -15.1170 365.6 28.75 5

nvsz-27a New Britain–Solomons–Vanuatu 167.0053 -15.6308 334.2 44.74 25.46

nvsz-27b New Britain–Solomons–Vanuatu 166.7068 -15.7695 334.2 24.15 5

nvsz-28a New Britain–Solomons–Vanuatu 167.4074 -16.3455 327.5 41.53 22.44

nvsz-28b New Britain–Solomons–Vanuatu 167.1117 -16.5264 327.5 20.42 5

nvsz-29a New Britain–Solomons–Vanuatu 167.9145 -17.2807 341.2 49.1 24.12

nvsz-29b New Britain–Solomons–Vanuatu 167.6229 -17.3757 341.2 22.48 5

nvsz-30a New Britain–Solomons–Vanuatu 168.2220 -18.2353 348.6 44.19 23.99

nvsz-30b New Britain–Solomons–Vanuatu 167.8895 -18.2991 348.6 22.32 5

nvsz-31a New Britain–Solomons–Vanuatu 168.5022 -19.0510 345.6 42.2 22.26

nvsz-31b New Britain–Solomons–Vanuatu 168.1611 -19.1338 345.6 20.2 5

nvsz-32a New Britain–Solomons–Vanuatu 168.8775 -19.6724 331.1 42.03 21.68

nvsz-32b New Britain–Solomons–Vanuatu 168.5671 -19.8338 331.1 19.49 5

nvsz-33a New Britain–Solomons–Vanuatu 169.3422 -20.4892 332.9 40.25 22.4

nvsz-33b New Britain–Solomons–Vanuatu 169.0161 -20.6453 332.9 20.37 5

nvsz-34a New Britain–Solomons–Vanuatu 169.8304 -21.2121 329.1 39 22.73

nvsz-34b New Britain–Solomons–Vanuatu 169.5086 -21.3911 329.1 20.77 5

nvsz-35a New Britain–Solomons–Vanuatu 170.3119 -21.6945 311.9 39 22.13

nvsz-35b New Britain–Solomons–Vanuatu 170.0606 -21.9543 311.9 20.03 5

nvsz-36a New Britain–Solomons–Vanuatu 170.9487 -22.1585 300.4 39.42 23.5

nvsz-36b New Britain–Solomons–Vanuatu 170.7585 -22.4577 300.4 21.71 5

nvsz-37a New Britain–Solomons–Vanuatu 171.6335 -22.3087 281.3 30 22.1

nvsz-37b New Britain–Solomons–Vanuatu 171.5512 -22.6902 281.3 20 5

Table B9: (continued)

PMEL Tsunami Forecast Series: Vol. 5—Newport, Oregon 111 

Figure B10: New Zealand–Puysegur Subduction Zone unit sources.

 160°E 164°E 168°E 172°E 176°E 180°W

 52°S

 48°S

 44°S

 40°S

 36°S

1

3

5

7

b, a
112 Eble et al.

Segment Description

Longitude

(°E)

Latitude

(°N)

Strike

(°)

Dip

(°)

Depth 

(km)

nzsz-1a New Zealand–Puysegur 168.0294 -45.4368 41.5 15 17.94

nzsz-1b New Zealand–Puysegur 167.5675 -45.1493 41.5 15 5

nzsz-2a New Zealand–Puysegur 167.3256 -46.0984 37.14 15 17.94

nzsz-2b New Zealand–Puysegur 166.8280 -45.8365 37.14 15 5

nzsz-3a New Zealand–Puysegur 166.4351 -46.7897 39.53 15 17.94

nzsz-3b New Zealand–Puysegur 165.9476 -46.5136 39.53 15 5

nzsz-4a New Zealand–Puysegur 166.0968 -47.2583 15.38 15 17.94

nzsz-4b New Zealand–Puysegur 165.4810 -47.1432 15.38 15 5

nzsz-5a New Zealand–Puysegur 165.7270 -48.0951 13.94 15 17.94

nzsz-5b New Zealand–Puysegur 165.0971 -47.9906 13.94 15 5

nzsz-6a New Zealand–Puysegur 165.3168 -49.0829 22.71 15 17.94

nzsz-6b New Zealand–Puysegur 164.7067 -48.9154 22.71 15 5

nzsz-7a New Zealand–Puysegur 164.8017 -49.9193 23.25 15 17.94

nzsz-7b New Zealand–Puysegur 164.1836 -49.7480 23.25 15 5

Table B10: Earthquake parameters for New Zealand–Puysegur Subduction Zone unit sources.
PMEL Tsuna

mi ForecastSeries: Vol. 5—Newport, Oregon 113 Figure B11: Ryukyu–Kyushu–Nankai Subduction Zone unit sources. 120°E 125°E 130°E 135°E 140°E 21°N 24°N 27°N

 30°N

 33°N

 36°N

1 3

5

7

9

11

13

15

17

19

21

a,b
114 Eble et al.

Segment Description

Longitude

(°E)

Latitude

(°N)

Strike

(°)

Dip

(°)

Depth 

(km)

rnsz-1a Ryukyu–Kyushu–Nankai 122.6672 23.6696 262 14 11.88

rnsz-1b Ryukyu–Kyushu–Nankai 122.7332 23.2380 262 10 3.2

rnsz-2a Ryukyu–Kyushu–Nankai 123.5939 23.7929 259.9 18.11 12.28

rnsz-2b Ryukyu–Kyushu–Nankai 123.6751 23.3725 259.9 10 3.6

rnsz-3a Ryukyu–Kyushu–Nankai 124.4604 23.9777 254.6 19.27 14.65

rnsz-3b Ryukyu–Kyushu–Nankai 124.5830 23.5689 254.6 12.18 4.1

rnsz-4a Ryukyu–Kyushu–Nankai 125.2720 24.2102 246.8 18 20.38

rnsz-4b Ryukyu–Kyushu–Nankai 125.4563 23.8177 246.8 16 6.6

rnsz-5a Ryukyu–Kyushu–Nankai 125.9465 24.5085 233.6 18 20.21

rnsz-5b Ryukyu–Kyushu–Nankai 126.2241 24.1645 233.6 16 6.43

rnsz-6a Ryukyu–Kyushu–Nankai 126.6349 25.0402 228.7 17.16 19.55

rnsz-6b Ryukyu–Kyushu–Nankai 126.9465 24.7176 228.7 15.16 6.47

rnsz-7a Ryukyu–Kyushu–Nankai 127.2867 25.6343 224 15.85 17.98

rnsz-7b Ryukyu–Kyushu–Nankai 127.6303 25.3339 224 13.56 6.26

rnsz-8a Ryukyu–Kyushu–Nankai 128.0725 26.3146 229.7 14.55 14.31

rnsz-8b Ryukyu–Kyushu–Nankai 128.3854 25.9831 229.7 9.64 5.94

rnsz-9a Ryukyu–Kyushu–Nankai 128.6642 26.8177 219.2 15.4 12.62

rnsz-9b Ryukyu–Kyushu–Nankai 129.0391 26.5438 219.2 8 5.66

rnsz-10a Ryukyu–Kyushu–Nankai 129.2286 27.4879 215.2 17 12.55

rnsz-10b Ryukyu–Kyushu–Nankai 129.6233 27.2402 215.2 8.16 5.45

rnsz-11a Ryukyu–Kyushu–Nankai 129.6169 28.0741 201.3 17 12.91

rnsz-11b Ryukyu–Kyushu–Nankai 130.0698 27.9181 201.3 8.8 5.26

rnsz-12a Ryukyu–Kyushu–Nankai 130.6175 29.0900 236.7 16.42 13.05

rnsz-12b Ryukyu–Kyushu–Nankai 130.8873 28.7299 236.7 9.57 4.74

rnsz-13a Ryukyu–Kyushu–Nankai 130.7223 29.3465 195.2 20.25 15.89

rnsz-13b Ryukyu–Kyushu–Nankai 131.1884 29.2362 195.2 12.98 4.66

rnsz-14a Ryukyu–Kyushu–Nankai 131.3467 30.3899 215.1 22.16 19.73

rnsz-14b Ryukyu–Kyushu–Nankai 131.7402 30.1507 215.1 17.48 4.71

rnsz-15a Ryukyu–Kyushu–Nankai 131.9149 31.1450 216 15.11 16.12

rnsz-15b Ryukyu–Kyushu–Nankai 132.3235 30.8899 216 13.46 4.48

rnsz-16a Ryukyu–Kyushu–Nankai 132.5628 31.9468 220.9 10.81 10.88

rnsz-16b Ryukyu–Kyushu–Nankai 132.9546 31.6579 220.9 7.19 4.62

rnsz-17a Ryukyu–Kyushu–Nankai 133.6125 32.6956 239 10.14 12.01

rnsz-17b Ryukyu–Kyushu–Nankai 133.8823 32.3168 239 8.41 4.7

rnsz-18a Ryukyu–Kyushu–Nankai 134.6416 33.1488 244.7 10.99 14.21

rnsz-18b Ryukyu–Kyushu–Nankai 134.8656 32.7502 244.5 10.97 4.7

rnsz-19a Ryukyu–Kyushu–Nankai 135.6450 33.5008 246.5 14.49 14.72

rnsz-19b Ryukyu–Kyushu–Nankai 135.8523 33.1021 246.5 11.87 4.44

rnsz-20a Ryukyu–Kyushu–Nankai 136.5962 33.8506 244.8 15 14.38

rnsz-20b Ryukyu–Kyushu–Nankai 136.8179 33.4581 244.8 12 3.98

rnsz-21a Ryukyu–Kyushu–Nankai 137.2252 34.3094 231.9 15 15.4

rnsz-21b Ryukyu–Kyushu–Nankai 137.5480 33.9680 231.9 12 5

rnsz-22a Ryukyu–Kyushu–Nankai 137.4161 34.5249 192.3 15 15.4

rnsz-22b Ryukyu–Kyushu–Nankai 137.9301 34.4327 192.3 12 5

Table B11: Earthquake parameters for Ryukyu–Kyushu–Nankai Subduction Zone unit sources.
PMEL Tsunami Forecast Series: Vol. 5—Newport, Oregon 115 

Appendix C. 

Synthetic Testing Report: Newport, Oregon*

C1. Purpose

Forecast models are tested with synthetic tsunami events covering a range of 

tsunami source locations and magnitudes ranging from mega-events to microevents. Testing is also done with selected historical tsunami events when available.

The purpose of forecast model testing is three-fold. The first objective is to 

assure that the results obtained with the NOAA tsunami forecast system, which 

has been released to the Tsunami Warning Centers for operational use, are consistent with those obtained by the researcher during the development of the forecast 

model. The second objective is to test the forecast model for consistency, accuracy, 

time efficiency, and quality of results over a range of possible tsunami locations 

and magnitudes. The third objective is to identify bugs and issues in need of resolution by the researcher who developed the forecast model or by the forecast software development team before the next version release to NOAA’s two Tsunami 

Warning Centers.

Local hardware and software applications, and tools familiar to the researcher(s), 

are used to run the Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST) model during the forecast model development. The test results presented in this report lend confidence 

that the model performs as developed and produces the same results when initiated within the forecast application in an operational setting as those produced 

by the researcher during the forecast model development. The test results assure 

those who rely on the Newport tsunami forecast model that consistent results are 

produced irrespective of system.

C2. Testing procedure

The general procedure for forecast model testing is to run a set of synthetic 

tsunami scenarios and a selected set of historical tsunami events through the 

forecast system application and compare the results with those obtained by the 

researcher during the forecast model development and presented in the Tsunami 

Forecast Model Report. Specific steps taken to test the model include:

1. Identification of testing scenarios, including the standard set of synthetic 

events, appropriate historical events, and customized synthetic scenarios that 

may have been used by the researcher(s) in developing the forecast model.

2. Creation of new events to represent customized synthetic scenarios used by the 

researcher(s) in developing the forecast model, if any.

3. Submission of test model runs with the forecast system, and export of the 

results from A, B, and C grids, along with time series.

4. Recording applicable metadata, including the specific forecast system used for 

testing.

* Author: Lindsey Wright
116 Eble et al.

5. Examination of forecast model results for instabilities in both time series and

plot results.

6. Comparison of forecast model results obtained through the forecast system with

those obtained during the forecast model development.

7. Summarization of results with specific mention of quality, consistency, and time

efficiency.

8. Reporting of issues identified to modeler and and forecast system software

development team.

9. Retesting the forecast models in the forecast system when reported issues have

been addressed or explained.

Synthetic model runs were tested on a DELL PowerEdge R510 computer

equipped with two Xeon E5670 processors at 2.93 Ghz, each with 12 MBytes of

cache and 32 GB memory. The processors are hex core and support hyperthreading,

resulting in the computer performing as a 24 processor core machine. Additionally,

the testing computer supports 10 Gigabit Ethernet for fast network connections.

This computer configuration is similar or the same as the configurations of the

computers installed at the Tsunami Warning Centers so the compute times should

only vary slightly.

C3. Results

The Newport, Oregon, forecast model was tested with SIFT version 3.2.

The Newport forecast model was tested with four synthetic scenarios and two

historical tsunami events. Test results from and comparisons with the results

obtained during the forecast model development are shown numerically in

Table C1 and graphically in Figures C1 to C6. The results show thatthe minimum

and maximum amplitudes and time series obtained from SIFT agree with those

obtained during the forecast model development, and that the forecast model is

stable and robust, with consistent and high quality results across geographically

distributed tsunami sources and tsunami magnitudes from micro-events to megaevents. There are some small differences in magnitudes evidentin the table, possibly

due to differing output frequencies used to track extrema between the development

and SIFT model runs. The authors feel that these differences are within acceptable

ranges. The model run time (wall-clock time) was 12.05 min for 9.99 hr of simulation time, and 4.80 min for 4.0 hr. This run time is within the 10 min run time for

4 hr of simulation time and satisfies time efficiency requirements.

A suite of synthetic events was run on the Newport forecast model. The modeled

scenarios were stable for all cases tested. Of the cases tested, the largest maximum

amplitude of 146 cm originated in the Aleutian-Alaska Cascadia (ACSZ) 56–65

source zone and the smallest signal (approximately 32 cm) was seen from the

Central and South America (CSSZ) 89–98 source. Comparisons between the

development results and the forecast system output were identical in shape and

amplitude for synthetic and historical cases tested, with very little variation in

maximum and minimum values. The Newport reference point used for the forecast

model development is the same as what is deployed in the forecast system, so the

results can be considered valid for all cases studied.
PMEL Tsuna

mi ForecastSeries: Vol. 5—Newport, Oregon 117 

Scenarios Source Zone Tsunami Source

α 

[m]

SIFT 

Max (cm)

Development

Max (cm)

SIFT 

Min (cm)

Development

Min (cm)

Mega-tsunami Scenarios

KISZ 22–31 Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap A22–31, B22–31 30 100.6 118.1 –33.8 –37.5ACSZ 56–65 Aleutian-Alaska-Cascadia A56–65, B56–65 30 146.4 139.8 –485.7 –484.0CSSZ 89–98 Central and South America A89–98, B89–98 30 31.9 31.6 –9.2 –9.1NTSZ 30–39 New Zealand-Kermadec-Tonga A30–39, B30–39 30 78.6 80.4 –36.4 –36.2

Historical Events

2006 Tonga n/a n/a n/a 3.5 4.5 –2.0 –2.42006 Kuril n/a n/a n/a 5.4 5.5 –4.6 –4.7

Table C1: Maximum and minimum amplitudes (cm) at the Newport, Oregon warning point for synthetic and historical events tested using

SIFT 3.2 and obtained during development.
118 Eble et al. Figure C1: Response of the Newport forecast model to synthetic scenario KISZ 22–31 (α=25). Maximum sea surface elevation for (a) A grid, (b) B grid, and (c) C grid. Sea surface elevation time series at the C-grid warning point (d). The lower time series plot is the result obtained during model development and is shown for comparison with test results. 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 −1 −0.50 0.51 time since event (hours)

wave amplitude (m)

KISZ22−31

forecast model

(a) (b) (c)

(d)
PMEL Tsuna

mi ForecastSeries: Vol. 5—Newport, Oregon 119 Figure C2: Response of the Newport forecast model to synthetic scenario ACSZ 56–65 (α=25). Maximum sea surface elevation for (a) A grid, (b) B grid, and (c) C grid. Sea surface elevation time series at the C-grid warning point (d). The lower time series plot is the result obtained during model development and is shown for comparison with test results. KISZ22−31

(a) (b) (c)

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

−2−4

420

time since event (hours)

wave amplitude (m)

ACSZ56−65

forecast model

(d)
120 Eble et al. Figure C3: Response of the Newport forecast model to synthetic scenario CSSZ 89–98 (α=25). Maximum sea surface elevation for (a) A grid, (b) B grid, and (c) C grid. Sea surface elevation time series at the C-grid warning point (d). The lower time series plot is the result obtained during model development and is shown for comparison with test results. KISZ22−31 (a) (b) (c) (d) 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 −0.2 −0.40 0.4 0.2 time since event (hours)

wave amplitude (m)

CSSZ89−98

forecast model
PMEL Tsunami Forecast Series: Vol. 5—Newport, Oregon 121 Figure C4: Response of the

Newport forecast

model to synthetic scenario

NTSZ 30–39 (α=25).

Maximum sea surface

elevation for (a)

A

grid, (b)

B

grid,

and (c)

C

grid.

Sea surface elevation time series

at the

C-grid

warning

point (d).

The

lower time series plot is the result obtained during model development and is shown for comparison with test results.
122 Eble et al. Figure C5: Response of the Newport forecast model to the 2006 Tonga tsunami. Maximum sea surface elevation for (a) A grid, (b) B grid, and (c) C grid. Sea surface elevation time series at the C-grid warning point (d). The lower time series plot is the result obtained during model development and is shown for comparison with test results. KISZ22−31 (a) (b) (c) (d)
PMEL Tsuna

mi ForecastSeries: Vol. 5—Newport, Oregon 123 Figure C6: Response of the Newport forecast model to the 2006 Kuril tsunami. Maximum sea surface elevation for (a) A grid, (b) B grid, and (c) C grid. Sea surface elevation time series at the C-grid warning point (d). The lower time series plot is the result obtained during model development and is shown for comparison with test results. KISZ22−31

(a) (b) (c)

(d)

PMEL Tsunami Forecast Series: Vol. 5—Newport, Oregon 125 

Glossary

Arrival time The time when the first tsunami wave is observed at a particular location, typically given in local and/or universal time, but also commonly

noted in minutes or hours relative to the time of the earthquake.

Bathymetry  The measurement of water depth of an undisturbed body of

water.

Cascadia Subduction Zone  Fault that extends from Cape Mendocino in

Northern California northward to mid-Vancouver Island, Canada. The fault

marks the convergence boundary where the Juan de Fuca tectonic plate is being subducted under the margin of the North America plate.

Current speed  The scalar rate of water motion measured as distance/time.

Current velocity  Movement of water expressed as a vector quantity. Velocity is the distance of movement per time coupled with direction of motion.

Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis  (DART®) Tsunami

detection and transmission system that measures the pressure of an overlying column of water and detects the passage of a tsunami.

Digital Elevation Model (DEM)  A digital representation of bathymetry

or topography based on regional survey data or satellite imagery. Data are

arrays of regularly spaced elevations referenced to a map projection of the

geographic coordinate system.

Epicenter  The point on the surface of the earth that is directly above the

focus of an earthquake.

Far-field  Region outside of the source of a tsunami where no direct observations of the tsunami-generating event are evident, except for the tsunami

waves themselves.

Focus  The point beneath the surface of the earth where a rupture or energy

release occurs due to a buildup of stress or the movement of earth’s tectonic

plates relative to one another.

Inundation  The horizontal inland extent of land that a tsunami penetrates,

generally measured perpendicularly to a shoreline.

Marigram  Tide gauge recording of wave level as a function of time at a particular location. The instrument used for recording is termed a marigraph.

Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST)  A suite of numerical simulation

codes used to provide estimates of the three processes of tsunami evolution:

tsunami generation, propagation, and inundation.
126 Eble et al.

Moment magnitude (Mw)  The magnitude of an earthquake on a logarithmic

scale in terms of the energy released. Moment magnitude is based on the size

and characteristics of a fault rupture as determined from long-period seismic

waves.

Near–field  Region of primary tsunami impact near the source of the tsunami. The near-field is defined as the region where non-tsunami effects of the

tsunami-generating event have been observed, such as earth shaking from

the earthquake, visible or measured ground deformation, or other direct (nontsunami) evidences of the source of the tsunami wave.

Propagation database  A basin-wide database of pre-computed water elevations and flow velocities at uniformly spaced grid points throughout the world

oceans. Values are computed from tsunamis generated by earthquakes with a

fault rupture at any one of discrete 100 × 50 km unit sources along worldwide

subduction zones.

Runup  Vertical difference between the elevation of tsunami inundation and

the sea level at the time of a tsunami. Runup is the elevation of the highest

point of land inundated by a tsunami as measured relative to a stated datum,

such as mean sea level.

Short-term Inundation Forecasting for Tsunamis (SIFT)  A tsunami

forecast system that integrates tsunami observations in the deep ocean with

numerical models to provide an estimate of tsunami wave arrival and amplitude at specific coastal locations while a tsunami propagates across an ocean

basin.

Subduction zone  A submarine region of the earth’s crust at which two or

more tectonic plates converge to cause one plate to sink under another, overriding plate. Subduction zones are regions of high seismic activity.

Synthetic event  Hypothetical events based on computer simulations or

theory of possible or even likely future scenarios.

Tele–tsunami or distant tsunami or far–field tsunami  Most commonly, a

tsunami originating from a source greater than 1000 km away from a particular location. In some contexts, a tele-tsunami is one that propagates through

deep ocean before reaching a particular location without regard to distance

separation.

Tidal wave  Term frequently used incorrectly as a synonym for tsunami. A

tsunami is unrelated to the predictable periodic rise and fall of sea level due

to the gravitational attractions of the moon and sun (see Tide, below).

Tide  The predictable rise and fall of a body of water (ocean, sea, bay, etc.) due

to the gravitational attractions of the moon and sun.

Tide gauge  An instrument for measuring the rise and fall of a column of

water over time at a particular location.
PMEL Tsunami Forecast Series: Vol. 5—Newport, Oregon 127 

Travel time  The time it takes for a tsunami to travel from the generating

source to a particular location.

Tsunameter  An oceanographic instrument used to detect and measure tsunamis in the deep ocean. Tsunami measurements are typically transmitted

acoustically to a surface buoy that in turn relays them in real time to ground

stations via satellite.

Tsunami  A Japanese term that literally translates to “harbor wave.” Tsunamis are a series of long-period shallow water waves that are generated by

the sudden displacement of water due to subsea disturbances such as earthquakes, submarine landslides, or volcanic eruptions. Less commonly, meteoric impact to the ocean or meteorological forcing can generate a tsunami.

Tsunami hazard assessment  A systematic investigation of seismically active regions of the world oceans to determine their potential tsunami impact

at a particular location. Numerical models are typically used to characterize

tsunami generation, propagation, and inundation, and to quantify the risk

posed to a particular community from tsunamis generated in each source

region investigated.

Tsunami magnitude  A number that characterizes the strength of a tsunami

based on the tsunami wave amplitudes. Several different tsunami magnitude

determination methods have been proposed.

Tsunami propagation The directional movement of a tsunami wave outward from the source of generation. The speed at which a tsunami propagates

depends on the depth of the water column in which the wave is traveling.

Tsunamis travel at a speed of 700 km/hr (450 mi/hr) over the average depth

of 4000 m in the open deep Pacific Ocean.

Tsunami source  Location of tsunami origin, most typically an underwater

earthquake epicenter. Tsunamis are also generated by submarine landslides,

underwater volcanic eruptions, or, less commonly, by meteoric impact of the

ocean.

Wall-clock time  The time that passes on a common clock or watch between

the start and end of a model run, as distinguished from the time needed by a

CPU or computer processor to complete the run, typically less than wall-clock

time.

Wave amplitude  The maximum vertical rise or drop of a column of water

as measured from wave crest (peak) or trough to a defined mean water level

state.

Wave crest or peak  The highest part of a wave or maximum rise above a

defined mean water level state, such as mean lower low water.

Wave height  The vertical difference between the highest part of a specific

wave (crest) and its corresponding lowest point (trough).
128 Eble et al.

Wavelength  The horizontal distance between two successive wave crests or

troughs.

Wave period  The length of time between the passage of two successive wave

crests or troughs as measured at a fixed location.

Wave trough  The lowest part of a wave or the maximum drop below a defined mean water level state, such as mean lower low water.
 	
 
	  
	


 

 	
 



 
 

  

 

  

 	
 

 	 

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Atka

Adak

Craig

Shemya

Eureka

Cordova

Chignik

La Push

Nikolski

Florence

Elfin Cove

Arena Cove

Sand Point

Point Reyes

Port Orford

Santa Monica

Westport

Midway Island

Santa Barbara

Port Alexander

Monterey

Homer

Sitka Kodiak

Yakutat

Seaside

Newport

King Cove

San Diego

Unalaska

Port San Luis

Crescent City

Seward

Neah Bay

Garibaldi

Los Angeles

Toke Point

Port Angeles

San Francisco

120°W

120°W

130°W

130°W

140°W

140°W

150°W

150°W

160°W

160°W

170°W

170°W

180°

180°

170°E

170°E

60°N 60°N

50°N 50°N

40°N 40°N

30°N 30°N

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•

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•

•

•

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• Hilo

Haleiwa

Kahului

Kawaihae

Honolulu

Nawiliwili

Pearl Harbor

Kailua

Lahaina

Keauhou

•

Pago Pago

•

Apra Harbor •

Wake Island

West Coast and Pacific

Tsunami Forecast Model Sites

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Montauk

Myrtle Beach

Daytona Beach

Cape Hatteras

Key West

Savannah

Portland

Nantucket

Bar Harbor

Palm Beach

Ocean City

Morehead City

Atlantic City

Virginia Beach

70°W

70°W

80°W

80°W

90°W

90°W

40°N 40°N

30°N 30°N

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• • Fajardo

San Juan

Mayaguez

Ponce

Arecibo Charlotte Amalie

East Coast and Caribbean

Tsunami Forecast Model Sites

Puerto Rico and U.S. Virgin Islands

Hawaii American Samoa

U.S. Territories

Kihei.

Christiansted .

. Hanalei