NASA/TM-2000-104606, Vol. 18

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Technical Report Series on

Global Modeling and Data Assimilation

Max J. Suarez, Editor

Volume 18

An Assessment of the Predictability of

Northern Winter Seasonal Means

with the NSIPP 1 AGCM

Philip J. Pegion, Siegfried D. Schubert, and Max J. Suarez

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December 2000
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NASA/TM-2000-104606, Vol. 18

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Technical Report Series on

Global Modeling and Data Assimilation

Max J. Suarez, Editor

Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland

Volume 18

An Assessment of the Predictability of

Northern Winter Seasonal Means

with the NSIPP 1 AGCM

Philip J. Pegion

General Sciences Corporation, Laurel, Maryland

Siegfried D. Schubert

Data Assimilation Office, Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland

Max J. Suarez

Climate and Radiation Branch

NASA Seasonal to Interannual Predication Project

Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland

National Aeronautics and

Space Administration

Goddard Space Flight Center

Greenbelt, Maryland 20771

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December 2000
Available from:

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NASA Center for AeroSpace Information

7121 Standard Drive

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Price Code: AI 7

National Technical Information Service

5285 Port Royal Road

Springfield, VA 22161

Price Code: A10

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Abstract

This atlas assesses the predictability of January-February-March (JFM) means using

version 1 of the NASA Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction Project Atmospheric General

Circulation Model (the NSIPP 1 AGCM). The AGCM is part of the NSIPP coupled

atmosphere-land-ocean model. For these results, the atmosphere was run uncoupled

from the ocean, but coupled with an interactive land model. The results are based

on 20 ensembles of nine JFM hindcasts for the period 1980-1999, with sea surface

temperature (SST) and sea ice specified from observations. The model integrations

were started from initial atmospheric conditions (taken from NCEP/NCAR reanalyses)

centered on December 15.

The analysis focuses on 200 mb height, precipitation, surface temperature, and sealevel pressure. The results address issues of both predictability and forecast skill. Various signal-to-noise measures are computed to demonstrate the potential for skillful

prediction on seasonal time scales under the assumption of a perfect model and perfectly known oceanic boundary forcings. The results clearly identify E1 Nino/Southern

Oscillation (ENSO)-related anomalies as the dominant seasonal mean signal in the tropics and the western hemisphere extratropics. Various probabilistic verification measures

that compare the model simulations with observations are employed to assess the veracity of the model's ENSO response. The results show that the model produces a realistic

ENSO response in both the tropics and extratropics. A comparison of the two major

warm events of this period (JFM 1983 and 1998), employing larger ensembles, indicates

that the model produces realistic and potentially predictable differences in the details

of the atmospheric response to warm events.

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List of Figures vii

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1 Introduction 1

2 Description of the Model and Integration

3 Definitions and Computations 2

3.1 Signal and noise ................................. 2

3.2 Correlations .................................... 3

3.3 Probability Density Function .......................... 4

3.4 Reliability ..................................... 4

4 Discussion of Results 5

4.1 Summary statistics ................................ 5

4.2 Model comparison ................................ 9

4.3 Individual years .................................. 10

4.4 Large ensemble comparisons ........................... 11

4.5 Probabilistic Verification .......... ................... 13

5 Conclusions 16

6 References 17

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List of Figures

SUMMARY STATISTICS

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Variance of JFM 200mb geopotential height for all years ...........

JFM 200mb geopotential height correlations for all years ...........

Variance of JFM precipitation for all years ...................

JFM precipitation correlations for all years ...................

Variance of JFM sea-level pressure for all years .................

JFM sea-level pressure correlations for all years ................

Variance of JFM surface temperature for all years ...............

JFM surface temperature correlations for all years ...............

Variance of JFM 200rob geopotential height for ENSO years .........

JFM 200mb geopotential height correlations for ENSO years .........

Variance of JFM precipitation for ENSO years .................

JFM precipitation correlations for ENSO years .................

Variance of JFM sea-level pressure for ENSO years ..............

JFM sea-level pressure correlations for ENSO years ..............

Variance of JFM surface temperature for ENSO years .............

JFM surface temperature correlations for ENSO years .............

Variance of JFM 200mb geopotential height for non-ENSO years .......

JFM 200mb geopotential height correlations for non-ENSO years .......

Variance of JFM precipitation for non-ENSO years ...............

JFM precipitation correlations for non-ENSO years ..............

Variance of JFM sea-level pressure for non-ENSO years ............

JFM sea-level pressure correlations for non-ENSO years ............

Variance of JFM surface temperature for non-ENSO years ..........

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24 JFM surfacetemperaturecorrelationsfor non-ENSOyears.... . ..... 43

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MODEL COMPARISON 44

25 Spatial anomaly correlation of 500 mb height over the Pacific-North American sector (25N-70N and 60W-150W) ...................... 45

26 Total Variance of JFM 200 mb geopotential height in the Pacific-North American sector for the four models that participated in the DSP comparison, for

the NSIPP-1 GCM, and for the reanalysis .................... 46

27 "Signal-to-Noise" ratio of the JFM 200 mb geopotential height in the PacificNorth American sector as in figure 26 ...................... 47

28 "Signal" of the JFM 200 mb geopotential height in the Pacific-North American sector as in figure 26 ............................. 48

29 "Noise" of the JFM 200 mb geopotential height in the Pacific-North American

sector as in figure 26 ................................ 49

30 Total variance of precipitation in the tropical Pacific as in figure 26 ..... 50

31 "Signal-to-Noise" ratio of precipitation in the tropical Pacific as in figure 26. 51

32 "Signal" of precipitation in the tropical Pacific as in figure 26 ......... 52

33 "Noise" of precipitation in the tropical Pacific as in figure 26 ......... 53

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INDIVIDUAL YEARS 55

34 JFM geopotential height at 200 mb for 1980, 1981, and 1982 ......... 56

35 JFM geopotential height at 200 mb for 1983, 1984, and 1985 ......... 57

36 JFM geopotential height at 200 mb for 1986, 1987, and 1988 ......... 58

37 JFM geopotentiaI height at 200 mb for 1989, 1990, and 1991 ......... 59

38 JFM geopotential height at 200 mb for 1992, 1993, and 1994 ......... 60

39 JFM geopotential height at 200 mb for 1995, 1996, and 1997 ......... 61

40 JFM geopotential height at 200 mb for 1998 and 1999 ............ 62

41 JFM precipitation for 1980, 1981, and 1982 .................. 63

42 JFM precipitation for 1983, 1984, and 1985 ................... 64

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43 JFM precipitation for 1986, 1987, and 1988 .................... 65

44 JFM precipitation for 1989, 1990, and 1991 ................... 66

45 JFM precipitation for 1992, 1993, and 1994 ................... 67

46 JFM precipitation for 1995, 1996, and 1997 ................... 68

47 JFM precipitation for 1998 and 1999 ...................... 69

48 JFM surface temperature for 1980, 1981, and 1982 ............... 70

49 JFM surface temperature for 1983, 1984, and 1985 ............... 71

50 JFM surface temperature for 1986, 1987, and 1988 ............... 72

51 JFM surface temperature for 1989, 1990, and 1991 ............... 73

52 JFM surface temperature for 1992, 1993, and 1994 .............. 74

53 JFM surface temperature for 1995, 1996, and 1997 ............... 75

54 JFM surface temperature for 1998 and 1999 .................. 76

LARGE ENSEMBLE COMPARISONS

55 Model results for 1998 and 1983 for the JFM geopotential height at 200 mb.

56 Difference in geopotential height at 200 mb (1998 minus 1983) ........

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57 Model results for 1998 and 1983 for the JFM precipitation .......... 80

58 Difference in precipitation (1998 minus 1983) ................. • 81

59 Model results for 1998 and 1983 for the JFM sea-level pressure ....... 82

60 Difference in sea-level pressure (1998 minus 1983) ............... 83

61 Model results for 1998 and 1983 for the JFM surface temperature ...... 84

62 Difference in surface temperature (1998 minus 1983) ............. 85

63 Ratio of the intra-ensemble variance of seasonal means of 200mb geopotential

height and precipitation (1998 / 1983) ...................... 86

64 Ratio of the intra-ensemble variance of seasonal means of surface temperature

and sea-level pressure (1998 / 1983) ....................... 87

65 Model results for 1982 with 18 ensemble members for JFM-mean 200 mb

height and precipitation ............................. 88

ix
66 Modelresults for 1989with 18ensemblemembersfor JFM-mean200 mb

heightandprecipitation............................. 89

67 Differencein geopotentialheightat 200mb (1983minus1989)........ 90

68 Differencein precipitation(1983minus1989)................. 91

69 Ratioofthe intra-ensemblevarianceof seasonalmeansof 200mbgeopotential

heightandprecipitation(1989/ 1983) ...................... 92

PROBABILISTIC VERIFICATION

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Probability distribution function of the variance of the PNA index as defined

on page 4 ..................................... 94

71 Probability distribution function of the variance of the area-mean precipitation in the tropical Pacific ............................ 95

72 Scatter plot of precipitation and PNA index variance using sub-sampled synthetic realizations, as in the pdfs shown in the two previous figures ...... 96

73 Reliability diagram over the two hemispheres for geopotential height at 200

mb .......................................... 98

74 Reliability diagram over North America and Europe for geopotential height

at 200 mb ..................................... 99

75 Reliability diagram over the two hemispheres for precipitation ........ 100

76 Reliability diagram over North America and tropical Pacific for precipitation. 101

77 Reliability diagram over the two hemispheres for sea-level pressure ...... 102

78 Reliability diagram over North America and Europe for sea-level pressure. 103

79 The 5th and 95th percentiles of the local distribution of the difference of

geopotential height at 200 mb (1998 minus 1983) ................ 104

80 The 5th and 95th percentiles of the local distribution of the difference of

precipitation (1998 minus 1983) ......................... 105

81 The 5th and 95th percentiles of the local distribution of the difference of

surface temperature (1998 minus 1983) ..................... 106

82 The 5th and 95th percentiles of the local distribution of the difference of

sea-level pressure (1998 minus 1983) ....................... 107

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1 Introduction

The mission of the NASA Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction Project (NSIPP) is to use

remotely-sensed observations to enhance the predictability of E1 Nifio/Southern Oscillation

(ENSO) and other major seasonal-to- interannual signals and their global teleconnections.

Fullfilling this mission requires state-of-the-art general circulation models of the coupled

ocean-atmosphere-land system that can be used to assimilate observations and to demonstrate the utility of those observations through experimental prediction.

This report presents an assessment of the predictability of seasonal means (January-FebruaryMarch, JFM) using version 1 of the NSIPP Atmospheric General Circulation Model (the

NSIPP 1 AGCM). This model, which is the atmosphere/land component of the full coupled

atmosphere-land-ocean model, is run here uncoupled from the ocean, but coupled with an

interactive land model. The NSIPP AGCM was developed at Goddard. NSIPP 1 is a production version of the development cycle Aries l_l/Patch 4. The climate characteristics of

this model, and a description of the model components are presented in a previous volume

of this report series (Bacmeister et al. 2000).

The results presented here are from 20 ensembles of nine hindcasts 1 made with NSIPP 1

AGCM for the period 1980-1999, with sea surface temperature (SST) and sea ice specified

from observations. For selected cases the ensemble size was increased to help assess the

stability of the statistics and improve statistical significance of the results. The model integrations begin in mid-December with the various ensemble members starting from different

atmospheric conditions centered on December 15. The atmospheric initial conditions and

verification data are from the reanalysis performed by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis, Kalnay et al., 1996). Precipitation is

verified against the combined satellite and gauge-based estimates of Xie and Arkin (1997).

The results address issues of both predictability and forecast skill. Various signal-to-noise

measures are computed to demonstrate the potential for skillful prediction on seasonal time

scales under the assumption of a perfect model and perfectly known boundary forcings.

Various probablistic verification measures that compare the model simulations with observations are employed to assess the veracity of the model's response to the boundary forcing.

Section 2 gives a brief overview of the model and the model integrations. Various definitions

and details of the computations are given in section 3. The results are discussed in section 4,

and the conclusions are given in section 5.

2 Description of the Model and Integration

For the runs described here, the NSIPP 1 model is run uncoupled from the ocean, but

coupled with an interactive land surface model (the Mosaic LSM of Koster and Suarez

(1992, 1996). Details of the NSIPP 1 atmospheric and land models are given in Bacmeister

1Strictly speaking these are not hindcasts since, by using observed SSTs, these could not be done in real

time
et al. (2000) and references therein. We briefly discuss below some of the recent changes to

the model and the most relevant parameterizations.

Compared with earlier versions of the model, the current version (development cycle Aries

1A/Patch 4) has much improved stationary waves and sub-monthly variability (Bacmeister

et al. 2000). The changes in Patch 4 include an increase in vertical resolution from 22 to

34 levels, with all new levels added near the surface; a modified version of the convection

parameterization (see below); a modified version of the turbulence scheme, together with

the elimination of dry convective adjustment; the use of filtered topography; and some

minor modifications to the cloud disgnostic scheme.

The model uses the Relaxed Arakawa-Schubert (RAS) convection scheme (Moorthi and

Suarez, 1992), which is a simple and efficient implementation of the Arakawa-Schubert

scheme. The version described in Moorthi and Suarez, RAS-1, is the standard parameterization used at Goddard. It has also been tested at NCEP, NCAR, and COLA, and

has performed particularly well in simulating the atmospheric response to tropical SST

anomalies--a crucial aspect of the ENSO prediction problem. We have recently updated

it by including a more detailed condensate budget in the updraft. This version, which we

refer to as RAS 1.5, is the one used in the NSIPP 1 AGCM.

For these runs, the model was integrated at a resolution of 2° latitude by 2.5 ° longitude.

The basic results are from 20 ensembles of nine JFM hindcasts for the period 1980-1999 using

specified SST and sea ice fractions based on the monthly Reynolds O-I dataset (Reynolds

and Smith 1994). The initial atmospheric conditions are taken from the NCEP/NCAR

reanalyses. The nine ensemble members for each year differ only in the atmospheric initial

conditions. Members are started 12 hours apart centered on December 15. The initial soil

conditions are the same for each year, and are taken from the December 1 state of a long

model simulation. For selected years, the ensemble size was increased to 18 or 36 members

and this is noted in the figures. In those cases the initial atmospheric conditions are taken

6 hours apart and again are centered on December 15.

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3 Definitions and Computations

The following subsections provide definitions and details of the calculations of the quantities displayed in the atlas. These include signal-to-noise ratios, various correlations, and

measures of reliability.

3.1 Signal and noise

Let x be a January-February-March (JFM) average of a particular quantity (e.g., 200mb

height). We denote the ensemble mean of x by an overbar, and the 20 year mean of x by

a square bracket. From the model runs, we define an unbiased estimate of the noise or

intra-ensemble variance of x as

0"n°ise -- m - 1 x -- _)2 , (1)

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where m is the number of ensemble members. Following Rowell et al (1995), an unbiased

estimate of the signal or inter-ensemble variance of x is

2 n

O-signal - _1_o-noise, (2)

where n is the number of years (in this case 20). The signal-to- noise ratio (SNR) is simply

(2) divided by (1). The total variance of x is defined as the sum of the signal (2) and noise

(1)

2 2 2 (3) Ototmod _-- O-signal -{- O'noise"

For the observations we have only one realization, and so the total variance of x is define as

O't°t°bs -- n 1 [(2; Ix]) 2 ] (4)

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3.2 Correlations

We compute the temporal correlation between the ensemble mean of the model runs _ and

the corresponding observation y as

[(_- [_])(Y-[Y])] (5)

where the overbar and brackets are as defined above.

A difficulty with interpreting the correlation (5) is that it is not clear how large the values

should be. For example, we would not expect them to be equal to 1 even for a perfect

model with perfect boundary conditions, since small errors in the intial conditions limit the

predictability of the atmosphere (Lorenz 1969). One approach to assessing the veracity of

these correlations is to compare them with the results from a perfect model. To do this we

remove one of the nine ensemble members and treat it as if it were an observation. We take

this sythnetic observation and compute the correlation (5) between it and the ensemble

mean of the 8 remaining ensemble members. This is repeated a number of times (100) by

withholding different combinations of ensemble members from the twenty years. These are

then averaged to obtain a "perfect model" correlation. To be consistent with these perfect

model correlations, we compute the correlations with the true observations using only 8

ensemble members. This allows us to also generate different estimates of these correlations

by withholding a different ensemble member each time in the computation of the 8-member

ensemble mean--though since each ensemble mean differs in only a single ensemble member

these tend to be very similar. These "imperfect model" estimates of the correlation are then

averaged and compared with the "perfect model" results.

The correlations presented as a bargraph in Figure 25 are the spatial corelations between

the ensemble mean of x (_) and the observation y. These are defined as

((_- (_))(Y- (Y))) (6)

_ = ((__ (_))_)o_((v _ (y))_)05"

Here angle brackets denote a spatial mean. In Figure 25 the correlation is computed over

the North American region (25N-70N, 60W-150W).
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3.3 Probability Density Function

In pages 94 and 95 we show estimates of the probability density function (PDF) of the

variance of the PNA index and the area -averaged tropical Pacific precipitation for various

models. Following Wallace and Gutzler (1981), the PNA index is defined at the following

grid points in terms of the 500rob JFM height anomaly (Z' = Z - [Z]) as

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-- Z_45ON,165ow T Z55° N,115° W -- Z30o N,85 o VV)" PNA _(Z20oN,160oW

(7)

The variance of PNA is

a_NA _ n [(PNA-[PNA]) 2] (8)

n 1

with an analogous expression for the variance of the precipitation. Since we are comparing

several models in pages 94 96, we limit the variance calculation to those years for which

wc also have data from the other models (1982-96). The PDF is determined by generating

a large number of different estimates of the variance by taking different combinations of

ensemble members. For the results shown in pages 94 96, we generated 100,000 different

variances, and the values are binned over equal intervals in variance. The ensemble members

composing each "realization" of 1982-96 were chosen at random for each year from a uniform

distribution. By seeing where the variance that actually occurred in nature (computed from

the observations) falls within the model's distribution of the variance, we can get a measure

of the reliability of the model statistics. For precipitation we present results for two regions:

(0-8 ° N, 160-200 o E) and (0-8 ° S, 160-200 ° E). We also estimate the joint PDFs of the

variance of the PNA index and the variance of the precipitation in the two regions. The

estimates arc obtained by requiring that the variances of the PNA index and precipitation

are computed from the same permutations. The results are presented on page 96 as scatter

plots. Other measures of the reliability of probabilistic forecasts are described below.

3.4 Reliability

A standard display of the performance of probability forecasts is the reliability diagram

(Wilks 1995). The reliability diagram displays the frequency of occurrence of dichotomous

events as a function Of the forecast probability. The diagram also includes a histogram of

the relative frequency of use of each of the probability forecast values. A perfectly reliable

forecast would lie along the 45 ° diagonal (i.e., the forecast probability would be equal to

the frequency of occurrence). The observed probability of an event is computed as the

fraction of the ensemble members for which the event occurred. The observation is assigned

a probability of 1 if the event occurred, and 0 otherwise. For the results shown in pages 98

through 103, events are defined as the occurrence of a positive (negative) anomaly that falls

outside one standard deviation of the interannual variation of the quantity. The frequencies

are computed from all 20 years and from every grid point making up the region in question.

We next describe our approach to assessing the reliability of the differences between the

1983 and 1998 simulations (pages 104 through 107). For this comparison we increased the

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ensemble size to 36. O(/rpurpose here is to establish wl/etiier the differences in model

response are consistent with the differences actually observed, or whether they reflect deficiencies in the model or boundary forcing. At each grid point we generate 36 × 36 = 1296

differences by taking all combinations of the two sets of 36 ensemble members. We then

determine the 95 th percentile by ordering the 1296 values from smallest to largest and taking the (0.95 × 1296 =) 1231st value. Similarly for the 5 th percentile. For example, the

contoured field in the upper panel on page 104 is the 95 th percentile, based on a separate

calculation at each grid point. The shading indicates those regions where the observations

fall outside the 95 th percentile. In these regions, we conclude that the observed difference

is larger than would be expected (at the 5% level) from the model's statistics.

We establish the field significance (Livezey and Chen 1983) of the results by determining

how much of the globe would satisfy the criterion by chance if the observations indeed came

from the same distribution as that of the model. For an inifinite number of independent

gridpoints this would be simply 5% of the points. However, for a finite number of spatially

correlated fields, this is generally not true. The field significance test uses a Monte Carlo

approach to estimate the PDF of the significant area of the globe. We do this by generating

10000 realizations of this area (the 5% level in our case) using synthetic data. The synthetic

data are constructed to have the same covariance structure as the model difference fields as

follows:

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= (9)

i----1

where the ais are unit-normal random variables with zero mean, and Ai and Ei are the ith

eigenvalue and eigenvector, respectively, of the 36 × 36 model difference fields.

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4 Discussion of Results

4.1 Summary statistics

This section presents various statistics that summarize, over the 20 years (1980-1999), the

signal and noise characteristics of the 9- member ensemble hindcasts. In addition, we present

the correlations of the ensemble mean hindcast with observations (referred to as "imperfect

model" correlations), and compare them with the correlations computed for an analogous

"perfect model" hindcast (see section 3.2). The signal and noise are defined in section 3.1.

The analysis is carried out for all years, ENSO years (1983, 85, 87, 89, 92, 98, 99), and

non-ENSO years. The quantities presented are the 200mb height, precipitation, sea level

pressure, and surface temperature. All results are for the January, February, March (JFM)

mean fields.

The results based on all 20 years are presented in Figures 1-8. The model reproduces the

total variance in the .observed 200mb height field very well (Figure 1). The model does,

however, show a general tendency to underestimate the height variance. The tropical height

variance, though relatively small, is comprised almost entirely of signal. For example, over

the eastern Pacific, where the tropical variance is largest, the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR)

exceeds 30. Poleward of about 30N the variance is mainly noise, although the North Pacific
I

and the southern United States have areas with SNRs that exceed 2. As will become clearer

in Figures 9-16, these areas correspond to centers of the wave-like ENSO response emanating

from the central and eastern tropical Pacific.

Figure 2 (top panel) shows the correlations between the ensemble mean and the observed

200mb height. These "imperfect model" correlations (see section 3.2) exceed 0.6 over much

of the tropics, the Pacific Ocean and parts of North America. We note that correlations

less than 0.38 are not significantly different from zero at the 5% level, based on a Fischer's

z-transform statistic (e.g. Stuart and Ord, 1994). For comparison, the bottom panel of

Figure 2 shows remarkably similar correlations for a so-called "perfect model" calculation

(see section 3.2). The main difference is a somewhat greater extension of the high tropical

correlations into the subtropics and middle latitudes. Nevertheless, this comparison suggests

that, for this field, the observations are nearly statistically indistinguishable from individual

model ensemble members.

Results for precipitation are shown in Figures 3 and 4. The basic pattern of variability

(largest over the central tropical Pacific) is reproduced well by the model. The magnitude is,

however, less than observed throughout most of the tropics. The model has a local maximum

in variability off the west coast of central America that is not found in the observations.

The tropical precipitation variability is dominated by signal, with SNRs exceeding 5 over

the central and eastern Pacfic. The signal is largely confined to the oceanic regions. SNRs

drop rapidly outside the deep tropics, and are less than one everywhere poleward of about

20. The region of relatively high precipitation variance extending poleward into the North

Pacific is comprised mainly of noise. The imperfect and perfect model correlations (Figure

4) both show high tropical correlations (greater than 0.8), with the largest values occurring

over the tropical Pacific, and the lowest tropical correlations occurring over land and the

Indian Ocean. The perfect model correlations, however, remain high over a broader region

of the tropics and subtropics compared with the imperfect model correlations.

Results for the sea level pressure (Figures 5 and 6) are very similar to those for the 200mb

height, with the model reproducing the total variance very well. In contrast to the results

for the 200rob height the model, however, tends to produce more total variance in SLP than

observed, especially at high latitudes and the North Pacific and North Atlantic oceans. The

SNR is again largest in the tropics, though here the maximum SNRs occur over the western

tropical Pacific. In the extratropics, the signal is strongest over the North Pacific and

the eastern North Atlantic, however, the SNRs do not exceed 2 poleward of about 30 °.

The correlations for the perfect and imperfect models are again quite similar. The main

differences are the weaker imperfect model correlations over the southern Indian Ocean and

the central/subtropical tropical Pacific.

The model does a credible job of reproducing the observed total variance in the North American surface temperature (Figure 7). As a note of caution, the NCEP surface temperature,

which we take here as the observed data, may be strongly influenced by model deficiencies,

and are considered less reliable than the upper air reanalysis fields. Both the signal and

noise are largest over western Canada, though the latter makes the largest contribution to

the total variance. The SNRs are less than 1 over most of North America. In particular, the

SNRs are less than 1/2 throughout the United States, with the smallest values occurring

over the southwest where they drop below 0.1. The small SNRs are reflected in the small

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perfect and imperfect model correlations (Figure 8) that occur throughout North America.

Large correlations are mostly confined to the tropics and subtropics. The main exception is

a region of correlations greater than 0.6 over northern Canada. Note that for this quantity,

the correlations are computed only over land, since the model's sea surface temperatures

are specified from observations.

Figures 9-16, are the same as Figures 1-8, except confined to the ENSO years (1983, 85,

87, 89, 92, 98, 99). The model's spatial pattern of total 200mb height variance (Figure

9) is similar to that for all years, however, in the tropical/subtropical central and eastern

Pacific the variance is more than a factor of two larger. The increased tropical variance is

primarily comprised of signal and reflects the response to the ENSO SST anomalies. The

extratropical variance is also somewhat larger, though the contribution from the noise is

largely unchanged from that for all years. The observed variance is again very similar to the

model variance, however, the tendency for the model to underestimate the total variance

is even more pronounced during these years. The SNR is, not surprisingly, generally larger

for the ENSO years, with values greater than 3 over the eastern North Pacific and the

south central United States. The imperfect and perfect model correlations (Figure 10) are

again similar to those for all years, though the correlations are generally larger. Compared

with the correlations for all years, the ENSO years show increased correlations over eastern

Europe (exceeding 0.6), and reduced (less than -,-0.6) imperfect model correlations over

northeast Asia.

Precipitation variance (Figure 11) for the ENSO years shows a general increase compared

with all years, though the basic patterns are quite similar. An increase (compared to all

years) in the signal off the west coast of the United States and to the southeast of the United

States results in SNRs that exceed one in these regions. Otherwise, the extratropical SNRs

poleward of 30 ° are predominantly less than one. The precipitation correlations (Figure 12)

show a picture similar to that of the SNRs, with the largest correlations occurring over the

tropical Pacific Ocean. In particular, the increase in correlation off the west and southeast

coasts of the United States occurs in both the the imperfect and perfect model correlations.

The total sea level pressure variance (Figure 13) in the North Pacific for the ENSO years

is double that for all years, largely due to an increase in signal. The basic tendency for

the model to over estimate the total sea level pressure variance is similar to that for all

years. The noise is also very similar to that for all years. The SNRs are larger than those

for all years, with values greater than 5 occurring throughout much of the tropics, except

over land. In the extratropics, SNRs exceed 3 off the west coast of the United States, and

off the southeast coast of the United States. The SLP correlations (Figure 14) are again

generally larger for the ENSO years. Compared with the 200rob height correlations, the

SLP correlation maxima in the North Pacific, tend to occur further east just off the west

coast of North America. It is noteworthy that the equatorward extension of the central

North Pacific minimum in the imperfect model correlations is not found in the perfect

model correlations.

For the ENSO years, the model's total variance in surface temperature (Figure 15) over

Canada does not change much from that for all years. In contrast, the observations indicate

a reduction in variance. There is also surprisingly little change in the signal compared to

all years, in fact, over parts of the United States there is less signal during ENSO years.
U

The correlations (Figure 16) are generally higher for the ENSO years compared with those

for all years. High perfect and imperfect model correlations occur over much of Africa, and

the Americas. It is interesting that, over North America, the perfect model correlations are

largest over Canada and Mexico, while the imperfect model correlations are largest along

the west coast and the northeast.

Figures 17-24, are the same as Figures 1-8, except for the non-ENSO years. Compared with

all years, the total 200mb height variance for non-ENSO years (Figure 17) is considerably

reduced in many regions. The reduction is almost entirely due to the reduction in signal,

since the noise is virtually unchanged compared with the results for all years. In the tropical

Pacific the signal is a factor of 4 smaller, while over the North Pacific it is a factor of 2

smaller than the signal for all years. The SNR is large in the tropics, though the large

values extend less far into the extratropics compared with those for all years. SNR is less

than one everywhere in the extratropics, except for a region near 30N in the central North

Pacific. Both the imperfect and perfect model correlations (Figure 18) of the 200mb height

are substantially reduced compared with those from all years. Correlations above 0.4 are

rare in the extratropics. In the tropics, there are considerable differences in the magnitudes

of the perfect and imperfect model correlations: the perfect model correlations exceed 0.8

over much of the tropics, while the imperfect model correlations never reach 0.8.

The precipitation variance during non-ENSO years (Figures 19) is substantially reduced

compared with the variance from all years. This is also evident in the observations. The

change is again almost entirely due to the reduction in signal, since the noise is unchanged.

Large SNRs are now confined to the central tropical Pacific. This reduced SNR is reflected in

the correlations (Figure 20). Imperfect model correlations are quite low everywhere except

over a few regions of the tropics (e.g. the central tropical Pacific where over a relatively

small region the values reach 0.8). The perfect model correlations are somewhat larger and

extend over a larger region with values greater than 0.6 occurring over much of the deep

tropics.

The results for non-ENSO years for sea level pressure (Figure 21) are somewhat different

from the results for the 200mb height. While the signal is again reduced over the North

Pacific, there is also some increase in noise. The net effect is a less dramatic non-ENSO year

reduction in total variance compared with what was found for the 200mb height variance.

There is a dramatic reduction in the SNR compared with all years. With few exceptions, the

SNR is less than 2 including the tropics. The model tendency to overestimate the total sea

level pressure variance noted before is also present for the non-ENSO years. Both the perfect

and imperfect model sea level pressure correlations (Figure 22) are weak. Correlations

exceeding 0.6 occur only over parts of the tropical/subtropical oceans.

The model reproduces the observed surface temperature total variance reasonably well for

the non-ENSO years (Figure 23). Note, however, for the model, the variance is reduced

compared to that for the ENSO years, while for the observations, the variance is increased

compared with the ENSO years. There is a surprising increase in signal over the north

central United States compared with the ENSO years, though the SNR is still well below

1 in that region. The imperfect model correlations (Figure 24) are substantially reduced

from those for all years (Figure 8). The perfect model correlations are largely unchanged

in the tropics compared with those for all years, though outside the tropics the correlations

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4.2 Model comparison

In this section we compare the NSIPP 1 results with those from several other AGCMs.

In particular, the comparison includes the Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies

(COLA), the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), the Geophysical Fluid

Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), and the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS-2) AGCMs.

These models all participated in the Dynamnieal Seasonal Prediction (DSP) project (Shukla

et al., 2000), allowing us to take advantage of the results from the ensemble forecasts already carried out for that project. In fact, the NSIPP 1 model runs described here follow

the experimental design of the DSP project. We note that, while the NSIPP 1 AGCM was

not ready in time for the first phase of the DSP project, it will be included in future DSP

project comparisons. The DSP project AGCMs, runs, and results for the Northern winter

are summarized in Shukla et a1.(2000).

Figure 25 shows the spatial anomaly correlations (see section 3.2) between the AGCM

ensemble mean and observations for the 500mb height over the Pacific-North American

region. The figure also includes the Nifio-3 SST anomalies. Note that results are available

from all the models for only a subset of the 20 years. The comparison shows that the NSIPP

1 model correlations are very consistent with those from the other AGCMs. Correlations

tend to be high for all models during the ENSO years, while that is generally not true

during other years. Exceptions are the 1985 cold event, for which the models show low

correlations, and 1990, for which the models show consistently high correlations, yet the

Nifio-3 SST anomalies are weak.

Figures 26-33 compare the variance, signal and noise from the various AGCMs. The results

are for the five ENSO years (1983, 85, 87, 89, 92) for which we have results available from

all the other models. Figure 26 shows the total variance of the JFM 200mb height for the

AGCMs and the observations over the Pacific/North American region. The models show a

large range of variability in the North Pacific. The NSIPP and COLA models show variance

similar to the observed, while the othe models (especially GEOS-2) have considerably less

variance. The SNRs (Figure 27) also differ substantially among the models. Values in

the North Pacific range from greater than 10 for the COLA model to less than 2 for the

NCAR model. All models show large SNRs in the tropics though here too the values show

a wide range. The differences in the total variance and SNRs over the North Pacific reflect

primarily the differences in the AGCMs signals (Figure 28), with the COLA and NSIPP

models having the strongest signals. The only exception is the NCAR model, which has

noise over the North Pacific (Figure 29) that is a factor of two to three larger than that of

the other models.

Figure 30 shows the total variance of the JFM precipitation for the AGCMs and observations. All the models show a maximum in variability over the central tropical Pacific,

consistent with the observations. There are, however, considerable differences among the

models and observations in both the magnitude and spatial patterns of the variance. The

COLA, GFDL and NCAR models have comparable variance magnitudes in the central tropical, with peak values somewhat larger than observed. The GEOS-2 model has variance

9
weaker than observed. The NSIPP model precipitation variance has very realistic peak

values, though the area of large tropical variability is smaller than observed. Most of the

models show enhanced variability off the west coast of Central America that is not present in

the observations. All the models show large SNRs (Figure 31) in the tropical precipitation,

though there is little agreement in magnitude or spatial distribution. The differences in the

signal (Figure 32) are largely the same as those already discussed for the total variance. The

noise (Figure 33), while a small =COmponent of the total variance, is considerably different

among the models. The COLA and GFDL models, for example, have substantially more

noise in the tropical precipitation than the other models. The relatively small noise in the

NCAR precipitation is rather surprising in view of the very strong noise in the extratropical

200mb height field for that model (cf., Figure 29).

4.3 Individual years

In this section we present the ensemble mean anomalies, the observed anomalies, and the

intra-ensemble variance for each of the 20 years. Results are presented for the global 200mb

height (Figures 34-40), global precipitation (Figures 41-47), and North American surface

temperature (Figures 48-54). The local statistical significance of the ensemble mean height,

precipitation, and surface temperature anomalies are determined using a t-test. We apply

the test to the precipitation anomalies under the assumption that the seasonal averaging

results in approximately normally distributed variables (see e.g. von Storch and Zwiers

1999, p54).

The basic wave-like ENSO response emanating from the central and eastern Pacific is clearly

evident in the observed and model ensemble mean height anomalies during 1983, 1985, 1987,

1989, 1992, 1998 and 1999. The 1999 cold event is, however, not well simulated by the

model over the Pacific/North American region. In addition to the ENSO years, the model

also generates significant height anomalies over the Pacific/North American region that

verify in the observations during 1982 and 1990 (see also Figure 25). There is considerably

interannual variability in the JFM noise, though nine ensemble members are not enough to

provide reliable estimates of the intra-ensemble variance (see next section). There is some

tendency for the noise over the North Pacific to be less than normal (cf. Figure 17) during

strong warm events (e.g. 1983, 1987 and 1998). The noise is greater than normal during

cold events (1985, 1989, and 1999). The largest noise occurs during 1982 though, as we

shall see in the next section, the results are sensitive to the sample size.

The main tropical precipitation anomalies reflect the ENSO events of 1983, 1985, 1987, 1989,

1992, 1998 and 1999. For 1983, 1989, 1998 and 1999 the area of significant precipitation

anomalies extend well into the extratropics especially over the North Pacific and North

American regions. The precipitation noise appears to be greater (less) than normal over the

central and eastern tropical Pacific (subtropical North Pacific) during major warm events

(1983, 1987 and 1998), while the reverse is true during cold events (1985, 1989, 1999)and

during 1982.

The model's ensemble mean JFM surface temperature anomalies are shown in Figures 48-54.

They are compared against the surface temperature anomalies from the NCEP reanalysis

data. Again, we note that the NCEP surface data may be strongly influenced by model

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deficiencies, and are considered less reliable than the upper air reanalysis fields. During

E1 Nifio events the model consistently generates large warm ensemble mean anomalies extending southeast from northwestern Canada into the Great Lakes region (e.g., 1983, 1987,

1992, 1998). The observations show a similar, .though less consistent response. For example, during 1983 the observations show warm anomalies confined to the north United

States/southern Canda, while during 1998 the warm anomalies were confined to the eastern

United States and Canada. The cold events show a less consistent response. For example, during 1985 there are almost no significant surface temperature anomalies over North

America. In contrast, during 1989, the model produces cold anomalies over much of Canada

and warm anomalies over the United States that, to a large extent, verify against the observations. These discrepancies between the ensemble mean anomalies and the observations,

are consistent with large noise values, and the small signal to noise ratio for this quantity

(see Figure 7). The model shows surprising agreement with the observations during 1982

with both showing strong cold anomalies over western and central Canada extending into

the Great Lakes region.

4.4 Large ensemble comparisons

For some years of special interest we have increased the ensemble size to either 18 or 36

ensemble members in order to provide improved estimates of the intra-ensemble statistics.

Selected results from these larger ensemble runs are presented in this section.

We start by comparing the two most extreme warm events (1983 and 1998) to determine

whether the model responses for these two years are significantly different from one another.

Figure 55 shows the 200mb height ensemble mean anomalies and intra-ensemble variance

for these two years based on 36 ensemble members. The ensemble mean anomalies are

generally quite similar to those from the 9-member ensembles shown earlier (section 4.3),

with a deeper low over the North Pacific for the 1983 event. The major differences between

the 9 member and 36 member results are in the estimates of the intra-ensemble variance.

In particular, the 36 member results show clearly that the variance over the North Atlantic

is about a factor of two larger than that over the North Pacific for both years. This was

not evident in the 9 member results. A maximum in variance also occurs for both years

over Northern Asia.

Figure 56 shows the difference between the 1998 and 1983 200mb height anomalies for the 36

member ensemble mean model results and the observations. The ensemble mean differences

are largest over the North Pacific, the middle east, and the Southern Hemisphere (SH)

middle and high latitudes. In the SH the differences show a pronounced zonally-symmetric

signal, with higher heights during 1998 in the middle latitudes, and lower heights at high

latitudes. The differences are significant at the 5% level over most regions, except for

parts of northern Asia, Canada, the northern and eastern United States, and the North

Atlantic between 30N and 60N. The observed differences are generally consistent with the

statistically significant model anomalies. Regions where the model does not agree with

the observations (e.g. the large observed anomalies over the North Atlantic and Asia) also

tend to be regions where the intra- ensemble variance is large. In the next section we will

examine whether the observations are outliers from the model's intra- ensemble variability

in these regions.

11
Figure57comparesthe 36-memberensemblemeanprecipitationanomaliesandtheir intraensemblevariancefor 1983and 1998.The36memberresultsaregenerallysimilarto those

forthe 9 memberresultsshownearlier.The precipitationdifferencefields(Figure58)from

both the modeland observationshighlight that the tropical precipitationanomalieswere

larger during 1998overthe westernIndian Ocean,and far easternPacific. On the other

hand,the tropicalprecipitationanomalieswerelargerduring1983overmostof the central

andwesternPacificandeasternIndian Ocean.Themodelalsoshowsenhancedprecipitation

during 1998just north of theequatoroverthe centralandwesternPacificthat isnot found

in the observations.In the northern extratropics,the model anomaliesshowenhanced

precipitationoverthe westcoastof Canada,andreducedprecipitationoff thesouthernand

easterncoastsof theUnitedStates.Theseanomalies,whilesignificant,arein manyregions

differentfrom theobservedanomalies.We shallexaminein the next sectionwhetherthe

observationsareoutlierswith respectto themodelensemblemembersin theseregions.

Figures59and60comparethe36-memberensemblemeansealevelpressureanomaliesand

their intra-ensemblevariancefor 1983and 1998.OvertheNorthPacific,the anomalouslow

pressurecenteris morethan 6robdeeperduring 1983,consistentwith the 200mbheights

shownearlier(Figure 55). The intra-ensemblevarianceof the sealevelpressureis very

similarin thetwo years.In the SouthernHemisphere,the differenceshavea strongzonally

symmetriccomponentwith lowerpressuresbetween30°Sand60°Sand higherpressuresat

highlatitudesduring 1983,againconsistentwith the heightdifferenceshownearlier.The

North PacificandSouthernHemispheredifferencesarenot inconsistentwith the observations. Themajordiscrepancywith the observationsoccursovertheNorth Hemispherehigh

latitudeswherethe observationsshowlargepositivepressuredifferencesthat arenot found

in the modelresults.

Figures61and62comparethe 36-memberensemblemeansurfacetemperatureanomalies

andtheir intra-ensemblevariancefor 1983and 1998.Both yearsshowpositivetemperature

anomaliesovermuchof Canada and the northern United States, northern South America,

north eastern Australia, and South Africa. Positive anomalies (greater than 1 degree) occur

over northern Asia during 1983. These areas also tend to have high intra-ensemble variance.

Both the model and observed difference fields show warmer temperature over Asia during

1983. In other regions, for example North America, the model and observations show

considerable disagreement.

The ratio of the 1998 to 1983 intra-ensemble variances are shown in Figures 63 and 64. The

results show that during 1998 there was less 200mb height and sea level pressure variance

over parts of the subtropics and more variance over Northern Asia and North America. For

the precipitation, the interannual differences in variance tend to follow the differences in

the ensemble mean precipitation. For example, the larger variance over the western Indian

Ocean and southern Asia during 1998 occurs in regions with greater mean precipitation (cf.

Figure 58). Surface temperature variance was smaller during 1998 over much of the tropical

land masses, and parts of Asia.

Two other years of interest are 1982 and 1989. For these years, the ensemble size was

increased to 18. As noted earlier, 1982 showed unusually large intra-ensemble variance in

the 200mb height field from the nine-member ensemble (see section 4.3). Figure 65 shows

the ensemble mean precipitation and 200mb height anomalies, and their intra-ensemble

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variances. The ensemble mean anomalies are generally quite similar to those computed

with just 9 members. With 18 ensemble members there is some reduction in the North

Pacific maximum in the 200mb height variance (cf. Figures 34 and 65), though the variance

is still unusually large compared with the other years, and the overall pattern is unchanged.

Next, we compare the the 1989 cold event with the 1983 warm event. Here, we are particularly interested in the interannual differences in the 200mb noise, and whether the

results from the NSIPP model are consistent with those obtained with the GEOS-2 model

(Schubert et al., 2000). We show first the 1989 18-member ensemble mean anomalies and

intra-ensemble variance of the 200mb height and precipitation (Figure 66). The results are

generally similar to those based on 9 ensemble members shown earlier. The differences between the 1989 and 1983 200mb height anomalies are shown for the model and observations

in Figure 67. The precipitation differences are shown in Figure 68. The model produces

very realistic height and precipitation differences, both in the tropics and extratropics. In

fact, even some of the regional differences, such as greater precipitation over California and

the southeast United States during the warm event, are well captured by the model. The

ratio of the 1989 to 1983 intra-ensemble variance for the 200rob height and precipitation

are shown in Figure 69. The results show a significantly greater height variance over the

North Pacific, and decreased variance over the North Atlantic, consistent with the results of

Schubert et al. (2000). The variance is significantly reduced over parts of the subtropics, and

a substantial fraction of the Atlantic Ocean. The tropical/subtropical Pacific precipitation

variance is larger north of the equator, and smaller on, and south of, the equator during

1989.

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4.5 Probabilistic Verification

One of the difficulties with validating the model statistics (e.g. total variance) against

observations is that the observations represent only a single realization from nature that

is subject to sampling variability. For example, even though the NSIPP model generates

total variance in the 200mb height field that is very similar to the observed variance (e.g.

top panels of Figure 1), it may be that a hypothetical second 20 year realization of nature

would produce a substantially different observed variance estimate, so that the good correspondence we obtained is simply a chance occurrence. While we clearly cannot produce

further realizations of nature, we can carry out a more detailed analysis of the sampling

variability of the model variance estimates, and ask whether the one realization from nature

is an outlier with respect to the model's distribution of outcomes.

As an example, Figure 70 shows the probability density functions (pdfs) of the variance of

the PNA index for the NSIPP, COLA and GFDL models (see section 3.3 for a description

of the pdf calculation and the PNA index), computed for the years 1982 -1996. In short,

the pdf describes the probability of the possible outcomes of the variance of the PNA index

over the 15 years. The vertical line indicates the variance corresponding to the one outcome

from the observations. Since the observed outcome is not an outlier for any of the model

pdfs (does not fall in the tails of the distributions) we conclude that, for this quantity, the

observations are not inconsistent with any of the models. It is interesting that there are

substantial differences in the pdfs. In particular, the NSIPP model pdf shows a broader

13
distribution (larger variance),and it is shift to the right with respectto the other two

modelssothat it hasa meancloserto the observedvalue.

The analogouspdf plots for the varianceof the areameantropical precipitationareshown

in Figure7i. Sincethe modelsshowratherdifferentlatitudinal distributionsof the tropical

precipitation, we presentresultsfor two differentregions,one north (0-8° N), and the

other south(0 8° S) of the equator._ Both regionsspanthe samelongitudeband (160° -

200°). For this quantity,therearecleardiscrepencieswith the observations.North of the

equator,all threemodelsappearto be inconsistentwith the observations:the NSIPPand

GFDLmodelprecipitationvariabilityistooweak,andtheprecipitationvariabilityof COLA

modelis too strong. Southof theequatorthe precipitationvariability is too weakfor the

NSIPPand COLA models,whilethat of the GFDL modelappearsto beconsistentwith

theobservations.

Figure72showsscatterplotscomparingthe varianceof the PNA indexwith the variance

of the areameantropical precipitationfor the two regionsdiscussedin Figure 71. The

observationis indicatedby a dark square. Theseplots provideinformationon the joint

distributionof the PNA indexandprecipitationvariance.Surprisingly,noneof the models

showaclearlinearrelationshipbetweenthevarianceof thePNA indexandtheprecipitation

variancein eitherof the tworegions,suggestingthat theextratropicalnoisein thesemodels

is notstronglytied to noisein thetropicalforcing.This is not inconsistentwith our earlier

resultsfrom the NCAR model (section4.2) which showedunusuallylarge noisein the

extratropics,but only modestnoisein the tropical precipitation.

Wenextexaminethe ability of the AGCMto reliablyforecasttheprobabilityof occurrence

of particular events.For dichotomusevents,the reliability diagram(seeWilks 1995and

section3.4)providesa usefuldisplayof the frequencyof occurrenceof eventsasa function

of the forecastprobability. By examiningthe resultsas a function of forecastprobability,

wecandeterminethe ability of the modelto distinguishbetweenhighly probableand less

probableoccurrencesof the events. Figures73-78show reliability diagramsfor various

quantitiesandregionsforthe followingtwoevents:1) the valueof the quantity in question

exceeds+1 standarddeviation(std,panelson the right), and 2) the valuefallsbelow-1

std (panelson theleft). The modelstd is computedat eachgrid point fromthe 20yearsof

hindcastsusing(3). The std of theobservationsis computedfrom (4). Theresultsin each

plot areobtainedby averagingtheprobabilitiesoverall gridpointsincludedin the regionof

interest,andovereitherall,ENSO,or non-ENSOyears.Figure73showstheresultsforthe

200mbheightaveragedoverthe Southernand NorthernHemispheres.The predictionsare

biasedtowardhigherprobabilitiesthanthe observedfrequencywouldsuggestfor both the

+1 and-1 std events.Forexample,in the NH for all yearsand for ENSOyears,whenthe

modelpredictionsshowan80%probabilityof occurrenceof the event,the actualobserved

frequencyis only about 55%. The resultsare evenmorebiasedfor non-ENSOyears,in

whichcasethe observedfrequencyis only about 40%. Overall,the modelis morereliable

forENSOthannon-ENSOyearswhenit is predictingthe eventwith high probability.

Figure74issimilarto Figure73exceptthat the resultsarefor North AmericaandEurope.

Theseregionsshowinterestingasymmetriesbetweenthe + 1 std events. For the PNA region,

the model is more reliable for +1 std events for all years and ENSO years. For the -1 std

2In practice, we chose for each model the gridpoint closest to 8 ° latitude.

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event, the model shows a bias similar to that seen for the entire NH in Figure 61. A similar

result is obtained for Europe. In this case, the model is more reliable for ENSO years for the

-1 std event than for the +1 std event. Over Europe results must, however, be treated with

more caution since there are few cases for which the model actually predicted the events

with high probability.

Figures 75 and 76 are the reliability diagrams for precipitation. The curves in Figure 75

for both hemispheres are rather flat for all but the highest probability forecasts and do

not distinguish very much between ENSO and non-ENSO years. This indicates that the

probability forecasts for precipitation are generally not very reliable. That is not true for

small regions. For example, over North America (Figure 76) , the -1 std event forecasts are

very reliable for the ENSO years. Also, over the tropical Pacific area (10S to 10N, 160W to

160E), the +1 std events forecasts are reliable for ENSO years.

Figures 77 and 78 are the same as Figures 73 and 74, respectively, except for sea level

pressure. The results are very similar to those for the 200rob heights. The forecasts over

North America are, however, about equally reliable for both + 1 and -1 std events.

We next assess the reliability of the differences in the 1998 and 1983 anomalies generated

by the model. In section 4.4 we established the statistical significance of the differences,

based on the intra-ensemble noise produced by the model. Our purpose here is to establish

whether the 1998/1983 differences in model response are consistent with the differences

actually observed, or whether they reflect deficiencies in the model or boundary forcing.

Our approach to this is described in section 3.4. The basic idea is that we determine,

at each grid point, the 5th the 95 th percentiles of the 1998/1983 differences from various

permutations of the ensemble members. We then determine whether the observations fall

outside these percentiles. If the total area of the regions where the observations fall outside

the percentiles is field significant (see section 3.4), we conclude that the observed and model

discrepancies must be due to model and/or boundary forcing deficiencies.

Figure 79 shows the 5 th the 95 th percentiles for the 1998-1983 200mb height differences.

This shows, for example, that over the region of maximum differences in North Pacific,

the values can locally be larger than 160 meters, and smaller than 0. The observations lie

outside the 95 th percentile over much of the tropical/subtropical Indian and western Pacific

oceans. Altogether observations are above 95 th percentile over 14.7% of the globe. This

value is marginally field significant (values above 15.4% are field-siguificant at the one-sided

5% level.) On the other hand, observations are below the 5 th percentile over only 2.4% of

the globe. This value is not field-significant at the one-sided 5% level.

Figure 80 is the same as Figure 79, except for the precipitation differences. The observed

differences lie outside the 95th percentile primarily over regions scattered about the tropics

and subtropics (total area covers 3.6% of the globe). Similarly, the regions where the

observations lie outside the 5 th percentile are scattered throughout the globe (total area

also covers 3.9% of the globe). Neither area is field-significant at the one-sided 5% level.

Figure 81 shows the 5 th and 95 th percentiles for the 1998-1983 surface temperature differences. Over the winter continents the values reflect the predominantly positive differences

over North America and the predominantly negative differences over Asia. The observations lie outside the 5th (95 th) percentiles over an insignificant 2.2% (2.3%) of the land area

15

w
(percentages must be less than 0.65% to be field significant at the one-sided 5% level).

The 5 th the 95 th percentiles for the 1998-1983 sea level pressure differences are shown in

Figure 82. For this quantity, the observed differences lie outside the 5 th and 95 th over less

than 1% of the globe. These percentages are field significant at the one-sided 5% level,

indicating that the model's range in sea level pressure differences is larger than that of the

observations.

m

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5 Conclusions

This report presents the results of 20 ensembles of nine January-February-March (JFM)

hindcasts made with the NSIPP 1 AGCM for the period 1980-1999. Sea surface temperature

(SST) and sea ice are specified from observations. The quantities examined are the global

200mb height, precipitation, sea level pressure, and North American surface temperature.

The results show that the NSIPP AGCM produces very realistic January-February-March

(JFM) mean interannual variability. Comparisons with several other AGCMs demonstrate

that the NSIPP model is state-of-the-art. The comparisons also show that there is a wide

range among the models in the signal-to-noise ratios (SNRs), with the NSIPP model producing SNRs in the extratropics that are on the high side compared with most of the other

models.

The results further show that the potentially predictable signal in the extratropics is predominantly associated with ENSO. The wave-like ENSO response emanates from the central

and eastern tropical Pacific and, in the Northern Hemisphere, extends across much of the

North Pacific Ocean and North America. The latter two regions are characterized by some

of the largest extratropical signal-to-noise ratios with, for example, maximum values exceeding 5 for the 200mb height field during the ENSO years.

A comparison of the 1983 and 1998 E1 Nifio events using larger ensembles suggests that there

are potentially predictable differences in the extratropical response for these two extreme

events.

Various probablistic verification measures are presented that provide further indications

of the reliability of the AGCM hindcasts. These include reliability diagrams, and various

model probablity density functions (pdfs) that help to determine whether the observations

fall within the range of model solutions.

16

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=

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6 References

Bacmeister J., P.J. Pegion, S.D. Schubert, and M.J. Suarez, 2000: Atlas of seasonal means

simulated by the NSIPP 1 atmospheric GCM, NASA Tech. Memo. 104606, Vol. 17.

Kalnay, E., M. Kanamitsu, R. Kistler, W. Collins, D. Deaven, J. Derber, L. Gandin, S. Sara,

G. White, J. Woollen, Y. Zhu, M. Chelliah, W. Ebisuzaki, W. Higgins, J. Janowiak, K. C.

Mo, C. Ropelewski, J. Wang, A Leetma, R. Renolds, R Jenne, 1995: The NMC/NCAR

Reanalysis Project. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 77, 437-471.

Koster, R., and M. Suarez, 1992: Modeling the land surface boundary in climate models as

a composite of independent vegetatio n stands. J. Geophys. Res., 97, 2697-2715.

Koster, R. and M. Suarez, 1996: Energy and Water Balance Calculations in the Mosaic

LSM, NASA Tech. Memo. 104606, Vol. 9.

Livezey, R.E. and W.Y. Chen, 1983: Statistical field significance and its determination by

Monte Carlo techniques. Mon. Wea. Rev., 111, 46-59.

Lorenz, E.N. 1969: The predictability of a flow which possesses many scales of motion.

Tellus, 21,289-307.

Moorthi, S. and M. Suarez, 1992: Relaxed Arakawa-Schubert: a parameterization of moist

convection for general circulation models. Mon. Weather Rev., 120, 978-1002.

Reynolds, W. R. and T. M. Smith, 1994: Improved global sea surface temperature analyses

using optimum interpolation. J. Climate, 7, 929-948.

Rowell,D.P., C.Folland, K.Maskell, and N.Ward, 1995: Variability of summer rainfall over

tropical north Africa (1906-92): Observations and modelling. Q. J. R. Meteor. Soc., 121,

669-704.

Schubert,S. D., M. J. Suarez, Y. Chang and G. Branstator, 2000: The impact of ENSO on

extratropical low frequency noise in seasonal forecasts. Submitted to J. Climate.

Shukla, J., J. Anderson, D. Baumhefner, Y. Chang, E. Kalnay, L. Marx, D. Paolino, S.

Schubert, D. Straus, M. Suarez, J. Tribbia, 2000: Dynamical Seasonal Prediction, To appear

in Bull. Amer. Met. Soc.

Storch, H.V. and F. Zwiers, 1999: Statistical Analysis in Climate Research, Cambridge

University Press, 484pp.

Stuart, A. and J.K. Ord, 1994: Kendall's Advanced Theory of Statistics. Halsted Press,

New York, 676pp.

Wallace, J.M. and D.S. Gutzler, 1981: Teleconnections in the geopotential height field

during the Northern Hemisphere winter. Mon. Wea. Rev., 109, 784-812.

Wilks, D. S., 1995: Statistical methods in the Atmospheric Sciences. International Geophysics Series, volume 59, Academic Press, 467pp.

17
Xie,P.andP.Arkin, 1997:Globalprecipitation,a 17-Yearmonthlyanalysisbasedon gauge

observations, satellite estimates and numerical model outputs. Bull. Am. Met. Soc., 78,

2539-2558.

18

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SUMMARY STATISTICS

All Years, ENSO Years, Non-ENSO Years

Geopotential Height Variance at 200 mb

Precipitation Variance

Sea-Level Pressure Variance

Geopotential Height Correlation at 200 mb

Precipitation Correlation

Sea-Level Pressure Correlation

19
!

90N

60N3ON

EQ

30S

60S

90S

90N

6ON"

3ON.

EQ

30S'

60S'

90S

90N

60N30NEQ30S60S90S

Model Total Variance

1 " 5

-2 _ _--_-_'_- "--1/-

ReanalysisTotalVariance

_,r-i__ ........

Signal _ _=

• - 1" ii

Noise

Signal/Noise ratio

60E 120E 180 12bw 66w o

Total Variance (ModeI-Reanalysis)

__c-_-------------'___.-''i_: _ _=_:_ -.... ,

i,=.,. !

0 60E 12'0E 180 120W 60W 0

Figure 1: Variance of JFM 200mb geopotential height for all years. The "signal" is the

variance of the ensemble mean. The "noise" is the intra-ensemble variance. For the variances

the contours are .25.5 1 2 4 8 16 32 × 10 3 m 2, with values above 4000 m 2 shaded. For the

difference (bottom-right) the contours are + 0 1 2 4 × 103 m2, with negative values shaded.

The contours for the ratio are 0.5 1 2 3 5 10 30 50 100 200, with values above 5 shaded.

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w

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v

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90N

Correlation with NCEP Reanalysis

60N

30N

EQ

30S

60S

90S

Correlation with one Ensemble Member

90N u.4

60N

30N

EQ

30S

60S

90S ! I

0 60E 120E 180 120W 60W 0

Figure 2: JFM 200mb geopotential height correlations for all years. Top: The mean correlation over all years of 8-member ensemble means with the observations. Bottom: The

mean correlation over all years between 8-member ensemble means and the ninth member.

Values above 0.6 are shaded, values within +0.4 are not contoured. Negative contours are

dashed.

21
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90N

60N

30N

EQ

30S

60S:

90S

gON.

6ON.

30N

EQ

30S60S

90S

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30S.

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Model Total Variance Xie Arkin Total Variance

Q

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Ill Illl I,

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Q "

Signal/Noise ratio

i i " "

60E 120E 180 120W 60W 0

TOtal Variance (Model-Xie Art_in)

0 60E 120E 1BO 12()W 6()W 0

Figure 3: Variance of JFM precipitation for all years. The "signal" is the variance of the

ensemble mean. The "noise" is the intra-ensemble variance. For the variances the contours

are 1 2 4 8 16 32 64 (ram/day)2; values above 8 are shaded. For the difference (bottom-right)

the contours are + 2 4 8 16 32 64 (ram/day)2; negative contours dashed. The contours for

the ratio are 0.5 1 2 3 5 10 30 50 100; values above 5 are shaded and the 0.5 contour is

dashed.

22

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60N

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EQ

30S

60S

90S

90N

60N

30N

Correlation with Xie Arkin Precipitation

o.q_

Correlation with one Ensemble Member

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Figure 4: JFM precipitation correlations for all years. Top: The mean correlation over all

years of 8-member ensemble means with the observations. Bottom: The mean correlation

over all years between 8-member ensemble means and the ninth member. Values above 0.6

are shaded, values within 4-0.4 are not contoured. Negative contours are dashed.

23
Model Total Variance Reanalysis Total Variance

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0

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60E 12'0E 180 12(3W 86w o o

Total Variance (ModeI-Reanallsis)

0 60E 12'OE 1gO 120W 60W

Figure 5: Variance of JFM sea-level pressure for all years. The "signal" is the variance of

the ensemble mean. The "noise" is the intra-ensemble variance. The variances are in units

of mb 2. The contours for the ratio axe 0.5 1 2 3 5 10 30 50 100 200, with values above 5

shaded. The contours for the difference are :t: 2 4 8 16 mb 2, with values above +4 mb 2

shaded; negative contours are dashed.

24

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r

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90N

60N

30N

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30S

60S

90S

Correlation with NCEP Reanalysis

90N

60N

30N

EQ

30S

60S

90S

Correlation with one Ensemble Member

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Figure 6: JFM sea-level pressure correlations for all years. Top: The mean correlation over

all years of 8-member ensemble means with the observations. Bottom: The mean correlation

over all years between 8-member ensemble means and the ninth member. Values above 0.6

are shaded, values within ±0.4 are not contoured. Negative contours are dashed.

25
W

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I

Reanalysis Total Variance

' i

m

Signal Noise I

"

_ i

i

N

Signal/Noise ratio Total Variance (ModeI-Reanalysis) u

\ / , ,

Figure 7: Variance of JFM surface temperature for all years. The "signal" is the variance

of the ensemble mean. The "noise" is the intra:ensemble variance. For the variances the

contours are 0.25 0.5 1 2 4 8 K 2, with values above 4 shaded. The contours for the difference

are 4- 1 2 4 8 K 2. The contours for the ratio are 0.1 0.2 0.5 1 2.

26

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-__=

m

u

i

Z

m
s z

w

W

r

90N

60N

30N

EQ

30S

60S

90S

Correlation with NCEP Reun(]lysis

90N

60NI

Correlation with one Ensemble Member

5ON

EQ

30S

60S

..

90S I I I I I

0 60F 120E 180 120W 60W 0

Figure 8: 3FM surface temperature correlations for all years. Top: The mean correlation

over all years of 8-member ensemble means with the observations. Bottom: The mean

correlation over all years between 8-member ensemble means and the ninth member. Values

above 0.6 are shaded, values within 4-0.4 are not contoured. Negative contours are dashed.

27
90N

60N

30N

EQ

30S

60S

90S

Model Total Variance Reanalysis Total Variance

r

Signal Noise

90N

60N "-1 1-: _ •

30N .7- ,_- -...,=---_ _/_".,,_->__Ts_'}_-----,

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60S 90S- --_

Signal/Noise ratio Total Variance (ModeI-Rea_aiysis)

gON- _ .s ,_

6ON- .I- .5 " -_ ....

EQ- _,

30S60S90S 0 ' 6C)E 12'0E 180 120W 60W 0 0 60E 120E 1BO 120W 6(_W

Figure 9: Variance of JFM 200mb geopotential height for ENSO years. The "signal" is

the variance of the ensemble mean. The "noise" is the intra-ensemble variance. For the

variances the contours are .25.5 1 2 4 8 16 32 x 103 m 2, with values above 4000 m 2 shaded.

For the difference (bottom-right) the contours are -4- 0 1 2 4 x 103 m 2, with negative values

shaded. The contours for the ratio are 0.5 1 2 3 5 10 30 50 100 200, with values above 5

shaded.

28

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m

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1.

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90N

60N

30N

EQ

30S

60S

90S

90N

60N

30N

EQ

30S

60S

90S

Correlation with NCEP Reanalysis

-:::-;-:;

Correlation with one Ensemble Member

I I I I I

0 60E 120E 180 120W 60W 0

Figure 10: JFM 200mb geopotential height correlations for ENSO years. Top: The mean

correlation over ENSO years of 8-member ensemble means with the observations. Bottom:

The mean correlation over ENSO years between 8-member ensemble means and the ninth

member. Values above 0.6 are shaded, values within +0.4 are not contoured. Negative

contours are dashed.

29
J

g

90N

60N

30N

EQ

30S

60S

90S

90N

60N

30N

EQ

30S

60S

90S

90N

60N

30N

EQ

30S

60S

90S

Model Total Variance Xie Arkin Total Variance

Signal

. °

Noise

Signal/Noise ratio

0 60E 12'0E 180 120W 60W 0

Total Variance (Model-Xie Arkin)

7i

0 60E 12'0E 180 120W 60W

Figure 11: Variance of JFM precipitation for ENSO years. The "signal" is the variance

of the ensemble mean. The "noise" is the intra-ensemble variance. For the variances the

contours are 1 2 4 8 16 32 64 (mm/day)2; values above 8 are shaded. For the difference

(bottom-right) the contours are + 2 4 8 16 32 64 (mm/day)2; negative contours dashed.

The contours for the ratio are 0.5 1 2 3 5 10 30 50 100; values above 5 are shaded and the

0.5 contour is dashed.

3O

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30N

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30S

60S

90S

90N

60N

30N

EQ

30S

60S

90S

Correlation with Xie Arkin Precipitation

Correlation with one Ensemble Member

0 60E 120E 180 120W 60W 0

Figure 12: JFM precipitation correlations for ENSO years. Top: The mean correlation

over ENSO years of 8-member ensemble means with the observations. Bottom: The mean

correlation over ENSO years between 8-member ensemble means and the ninth member.

Values above 0.6 are shaded, values within =t=0.4 are not contoured. Negative contours are

dashed.

31
1

!

m

1

90N

60N

30N

EQ

30S60S90S

90N

60N

30N

EQ

30S

60S

90S

9ON.

6ON"

3ON"

EQ"

30S"

60S"

90S

0

Model Total Variance

_lr_" 4_-=_= .... _.............

Reanaiysis Total Variance

Signal ....... Noise =

._.J_-- 32_ ,_::__-=_-_ '_................ ,:

Signal/Noise ratio

6C)E 12'0E 180 120W 60W

Total Variance (ModeI-Reanalysis)

() 60E 12'0E 180 12()W 60W

Figure 13: Variance of JFM sea-level pressure for ENSO years. The "signal" is the variance

of the ensemble mean. The "noise" is the intra-ensemble variance. The variances are in

units of mb _. The contours for the ratio are 0.5 1 2 3 5 10 30 50 100 200, with values above

5 shaded. The contours for the difference are ± 2 4 8 16 mb 2, with values above +4 mb 2

shaded; negative contours are dashed.

32

1

1

|

1

1

1

1

1

1

m

m

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1

1

1

1

1

i

1

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m

1

1
..,_.

___._

EE

m

E

L_

w

90N

60N

30N

EQ

30S

60S

90S

Correlation with NCEP Reanalysis

90N

60N

30N

EQ

30S

60S

90S

Correlation with one Ensemble Member

I I I I I

0 60E 120E 180 120W 60W 0

Figure 14: JFM sea-level pressure correlations for ENSO years. Top: The mean correlation

over ENSO years of 8-member ensemble means with the observations. Bottom: The mean

correlation over ENSO years between 8-member ensemble means and the ninth member.

Values above 0.6 are shaded, values within 4-0.4 are not contoured. Negative contours are

dashed.

33
Model Total Variance

I

U

i

Reanalysis Total Variance

't , " •

signal

Siclnal/Noise ratio Total Variance (ModeI-Reanalysis)

Figure 15: Variance of JFM surface temperature for ENSO years. The "signal" is the

variance of the ensemble mean. The "noise" is the intra-ensemble variance. For the variances

the contours are 0.25 0.5 1 2 4 8 K 2, with values above 4 shaded. The contours for the

difference are + 1 2 4 8 K 2. The contours for the ratio are 0.1 0.2 0.5 1 2.

34

m

m

m

U

I

J

m

m

u

Q

L

I
7

m

h

r

r

w

q_

E

90N

60N

30N

EQ

30S

60S

90S

90N

60N

30N

EQ

Correlation with NCEP Reanalysis

Correlation with one Ensemble Member

30S

60S

90S I I I I I

0 60E 120E 180 120W 60W 0

Figure 16: JFM surface temperature correlations for ENSO years. Top: The mean correlation over ENSO years of 8-member ensemble means with the observations. Bottom:

The mean correlation over ENSO years between 8-member ensemble means and the ninth

member. Values above 0.6 are shaded, values within ±0.4 are not contoured. Negative

contours are dashed.

35
g

Model Total Variance Reanalysis Total Variance

30N

.,

90S

Signal

30N - z5

30SEQ- o. s_.._

f

oos 

gos

90N

Signal/Noise ratio

60N

30N

EQ

30S

60S

90S

0 60E 120E 180 120W 60W 0

Total Variance ModeI-Reanalysis)

_ _ ,-. _ _'_,-._ _ _ .--,__-

0 60E 12'OE 160 120W 6()W 0

Figure 17: Variance of JFM 200mb geopotential height for non-ENSO years. The "signal"

is the variance of the ensemble mean. The "noise" is the intra-ensemble variance. For the

variances the contours are .25.5 1 2 4 8 16 32 x 103 m 2, with values above 4000 m 2 shaded.

For the difference (bottom-right) the contours are + 0 1 2 4 × 10 3 m 2, with negative values

shaded. The contours for the ratio are 0.5 1 2 3 5 10 30 50 100 200, with values above 5

shaded.

36

n

m

R

g

u

!

m

I

m

m

!

g

u

I

I

m

D

m

u

=_

g

m

m

D

m

g

m

m

mi

g

g
= =

L_

--=

w

90N

60N

30N

EQ

30S

60S

90S

90N

60N

30N

Correlation with NCEP Reanalysis

Correlation with one Ensemble Member

r_

F

EQ

30S

90S , , , ,

0 60E 120E 180 120W

I

60W 0

Figure 18: JFM 200mb geopotential height correlations for non-ENSO years. Top: The

mean correlation over non-ENSO years of 8-member ensemble means with the observations.

Bottom: The mean correlation over nonoENSO years between 8-member ensemble means

and the ninth member. Values above 0.6 are shaded, values within t0.4 are not contoured.

Negative contours are dashed.

37
i

i

90N-_ Model Tota____l Variance Xi_..ee Arki..__nn TotalVariance

311

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B

605

9as

Signal

9ON" ._ --'_ _ -

30S" _ i

60S ___ _

9os _ -- i i

90N

6ON,

3ON,

EQ,

30S,

60S,

90S

Signal/Noise ratio

0 60E 12'0E 180 120W 6dW 0

Total Variance (ModeI-Xie Arkin)

° .

0 66E 12'0E I_0 12bW 66W

Figure 19: Variance of JFM precipitation for non-ENSO years. The "signal" is the variance

of the ensemble mean. The "noise" is the intra-ensemble variance. For the variances the

contours are 1 2 4 8 16 32 64 (mm/day)2; values above 8 are shaded. For the difference

(bottom-right) the contours are 4- 2 4 8 16 32 64 (mm/day)2; negative contours dashed.

The contours for the ratio are 0.5 1 2 3 5 10 30 50 100; values above 5 are shaded and the

0.5 contour is dashed.

38

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T_-2

i

U

m

J

IJi

g

I

6

i
7_

W

7-

L_

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1..._ r

90N

60N

30N

FQ

30S

60S

90S

Correlation with Xie Arkin Precipitation

90N

Correlation with one Ensemble Member

0 60E 120E 180 120W 60W 0

Figure 20: JFM precipitation correlations for non-ENSO years. Top: The mean correlation

over non-ENSO years of 8-member ensemble means with the observations. Bottom: The

mean correlation over non-ENSO years between 8-member ensemble means and the ninth

member. Values above 0.6 are shaded, values within +0.4 are not contoured. Negative

contours are dashed.

39
u

m

g

90N

60N _

3ON,

EQ,

30S.

60S,

90S

Model Total Variance

_ ........ ;_-_; ..... == _ ......,, _,1_ _

Reanalysis Total Variance

i!!_ ̧ ̧' 1_2 i "

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90N

6ON,

3ON,

EQ.

30S.

60S -

90S

Signal Noise

Signal/Noise ratio Total Variance (ModeI-Reanalysis)

90N ....._ -- ....... . _

30N =0.5 .s

EQ ._-z_ _ ',

30S _

.....

gOS0 60E 12'OE 180 120W 6()W 0 0 60E 12'OE 180 12()W 6()W 0

Figure 21: Variance of 3FM sea-level pressure for non-ENSO years. The "signal" is the

variance of the ensemble mean. The "noise" is the intra-ensemble variance. The variances

are in units of mb 2. The contours for the ratio are 0.5 1 2 3 5 10 30 50 100 200, with values

above 5 shaded. The contours for the difference are ± 2 4 8 16 mb 2, with values above +4

mb 2 shaded; negative contours are dashed.

4O

I

U

[]

I

u

[]

m

m

i

I

g

g

i

E

g

J

I

I

m

D

m

D

z

I

i
E i

r

L

w

r

E

90N

Correlation with NCEP Reanalysis

60N

30N

EQ

30S

60S

90S

90N

60N

30N

EQ

30S

60S

90S

Correlation with one Ensemble Member

I I I I I

0 60E 120E 180 120W 60W 0

Figure 22: JFM sea-level pressure correlations for non-ENSO years. Top: The mean correlation over non-ENSO years of 8-member ensemble means with the observations. Bottom:

The mean correlation over non-ENSO years between 8-member ensemble means and the

ninth member. Values above 0.6 are shaded, values within 4-0.4 are not contoured. Negative contours are dashed.

41
i

Model Total Variance Reanalysis Total Variance

i

Signal g

"._ = ,_ _% _-_

Signal/Noise ratio Total Variance (ModeI-Reanalysis)

Figure 23: Variance of JFM surface temperature for non-ENSO years. The "signal" is

the variance of the ensemble mean. The "noise" is the intra-ensemble variance. For the

variances the contours axe 0.25 0.5 1 2 4 8 K 2, with values above 4 shaded. The contours

for the difference are 4- 1 2 4 8 K 2. The contours for the ratio are 0.1 0.2 0.5 1 2.

42

!

I

I

g

m

g

_.,-2

U

m

J

M

U
90S

0 60E 120E 180 120W 60W 0

Figure 24: JFM surface temperature correlations for non-ENSO years. Top: The mean

correlation over non-ENSO years of 8-member ensemble means with the observations. Bottom: The mean correlation over non-ENSO years between 8-member ensemble means and

the ninth member. Values above 0.6 are shaded, values within ±0.4 are not contoured.

Negative contours are dashed.

43
I

Z

m

D

MODEL COMPARISON

m

m

I

Anomaly correlations of Z500 in then Pacific-North American Sector

Total Variance of 200 mb Height in then Pacific-North American Sector

"Signal-to-Noise" Ratio of 200 mb Height in Pacific-North American Sector

"Signal" of 200 mb Height in the Pacific-North American Sector

"Noise" of 200 mb Height in the Pacific-North American Sector

Total Variance of Precipitation in the Tropical Pacific

"Signal-to-Noise" Ratio of Precipitation in the tropical Pacific

"Signal" Precipitation in the tropical Pacific

"Noise" Precipitation in the tropical Pacific

[]

g

I

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44

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.................... __========================

o

iiiii ii iiii iiiiiiiiiiiii; i-!

........ i- "-', : _-./ _ .................................. :........

........ ?.......... _....... i _ .......... _......... _...... _.......... !........ ,

o c_ o c_ _ c_ _ ,5

I I I I

45

o

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i

z

GEOS-2 U COLA

m

R

m

NC_ GFDL ==

i

|

w

m

U

m

m

NSIPP

-

Reanalysis

Figure 26: Total Variance of JFM 200 mb geopotential height in the Pacific-North American

sector for the four models that participated in the DSP comparison, for the NSIPP-1 GCM,

and for the reanalysis. The variance is computed only over the ENSO years (1983, 1985,

1987, 1989, 1992) for which results were available from all models. The contour levels are

1 2 4 8 12 16 20 24 x 103 m 2. Values greater than 1600 m 2 are shaded.

46

-i

m

m

U

R

z_

M

N

I

Z

J
K

GEOS-2 COLA

!

rriia

NCAR CFDL

NSIPP

Figure 27: "Signal-to-Noise" ratio of the JFM 200 mb geopotential height in the PacificNorth American sector as in figure 26. Contour levels are 0.5 1 2 3 5 10 30 50 100 200.

Values greater than 5 are shaded

47
U

m

I

GEOS-2 COLA

2 # ""

g

g

i

u

m

i

m

n

I

NCAR GFDL

1

2

J

m

m

I

u

NSIPP

t_

I

Figure 28: "Signal" of the JFM 200 mb geopotential height in the Pacific-North American

sector as in figure 26. The contour levels are 1 2 4 8 12 16 20 24 × 103 m 2. Values greater

than 1600 m 2 are shaded

48

g

I

= =

I

U

[]

I

u

m_

=_ _
GEOS-2 COLA

w

w

NCAR CFDL

k_

w

m.w

w

w

NSIPP

i _ • "°

Figure 29: "Noise"of the JFM 200 mb geopotential height in the Pacific-North American

sector as in figure 26. The contour levels are 1 2 4 8 12 16 20 24 × 103 m2. Values greater

than 1600 m 2 are shaded.

49
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--===

W

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W

W

m

INDIVIDUAL YEARS

(1980-1999)

200 mb Height

Precipitation

Surface Temperature over North America

55
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LARGE ENSEMBLE COMPARISONS

w

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77
j j

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r=

w

_=

w

w

w

v

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r  ̧

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90N

60N

30N

EQ

30S

60S

90S

90N

60N

30N

EQ

30S

60S

90S

Model

Reanalysis

I I I I I

0 60E 120E 180 120W 60W 0

h:

Figure 56: Difference in geopotential height at 200 mb (1998 minus 1983). Top panel is

for the model's ensemble mean. Lower panel is for the observations. For the model, only

values that pass a two-side 5% confidence test are shaded. Contour interval is 20 m. Both

ensembles consist of 36 members.

79
l

co

v-a

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z0

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80

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°_

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L_

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J!m!mmJNigm

u_ zu

m. JIInJ
w

w

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w

90N

60N

30N

EQ

30S

60S

90S

90N

60N

30N

EQ

30S

60S

90S

Model

W" ̧

Xie Arkin

I I I

0 60E 120F 180 120W 60W 0

w

L

L

=

Figure 58: Difference in precipitation (1998 minus 1983). Top panel is for the model's

ensemble mean. Lower panel is for the observations. For the model, only values that pass

a two-side 5% confidence test are shaded. Contour leveJs are :k 0.5 1 2 4 8 16 (ram/day).

Both ensembles consist of 36 members.

81
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Et o

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60N

5ON

EQ

50S

60S

Model

m

L_w

v

w

L

90S

90N

60N

50N

EQ

50S

60S

90S

NCEP

_'_"5=4 -_2_6 _24_

---

"_l._-__.-4_.'__,.',_'-.T':[ !"-:"10:::: ...... 2-': " __:_F_/,,:::----,

t-_:;__, , 10-_, .........., _ ...... - ........., c'. :.-

0 60E 120E 180 120W 60W 0

r----.

m

w

Figure 60: Difference in sea-level pressure (1998 minus 1983). Top panel is for the model's

ensemble mean. Lower panel is for the observations. For the model, only values that pass a

two-side 5% confidence test are shaded. Contour interval is 2 mb. Both ensembles consist

of 36 members.

83
*P,4

0

84

0

o8_

_,_•

_as

IQmiImIEiUzIiIuii
r -

£:Z

w

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tm

v

Model

90S

90N

60N -

30N -

EQ30S

60S -

90S , , , , ,

0 60E 120E 180 120W 60W 0

Figure 62: Difference in surface temperature (1998 minus 1983). Top panel is for the

model's ensemble mean. Lower panel is for the observations. For the model, only values

that pass a two-side 5% confidence test are shaded. Contour interval is 1 K and the zero

contour is omitted.. Both ensembles consist of 36 members.

85
90N

60N

30N

EQ

30S

60S

90S

90N

60N

3ON

EQ

30S

60S

90S

200 mb Height Variance

q

Precipitation Variance

I I

0 60E 120E 180 120W 60W 0

W

u

l

U

IB

i

W

M

W

g

W

Figure 63: Ratio of the intra-ensemble variance of seasonal means of 200mb geopotential

height and precipitation (1998 / 1983). Both ensembles consist of 36 members. Shading

indicates values are significantly different from one at the two-sided 5% level based on an

1 1 1 2 4 8 .... Contours less than 1 are dashed. Note the 1 F test. Contour levels are ... s 4 2

contour is omitted.

86

= =

i

L

U
r

w

m

w

++

90N

Surface Temperature Variance

60N

30N

EQ

30S

60S

90S

90N

60N

30N

FQ

30S

60S

90S

Sea Level Pressure Variance

I

I I I I I

0 60F 120E 180 120W 60W 0

Figure 64: Ratio of the intra-ensemble variance of seasonal means of surface temperature

and sea-level pressure (1998 / 1983). Both ensembles consist of 36 members. Shading

indicates values are significantly different from one at the two-sided 5% level based on an

1 1 1 2 4 8 .... Contours less than 1 are dashed. Note the 1 F test. Contour levels are ... _ _

contour is omitted.

87
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G) 0

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60N

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30S

60S

90S

90N

60N

30N

EQ

30S

60S

90S

Model

Reanalysis

I I I I I

0 60F 1201: 180 120W 60W 0

m

Z--

m

I

I

W

I

R

I

i

I

n

I

I

J

I

m

m

I

Figure 67: Difference in geopotcnt_al height at 200 mb (1983 minus 1989). Top panel is for

the model's ensemble mean. Lower panel is for the reanalysis. The contour interval is 50

m; negative contours are dashed. For the model, only values that pass a 5% confidence

test are shaded. The ensembles consist of 36 members for 1983 and 18 members for 1989.

The statistical test takes into account the different ensemble sizes.

9O

I

i

l

I
= =

_==

L: :

m_

m.

i

m_

w

w

r

90N

-":-_- Model

60N

30N

EQ

30S

60S

90S

90N

60N

30N

EQ

30S

60S

90S I I I I I

0 60E 120E 180 120W 60W 0

Figure 68: Difference in precipitation (1983 minus 1989). Top panel is for the model's

ensemble mean. Lower panel is for the reanalysis. The contour levels are + 0.5 1 2 4

8 16 mm/day; negative contours are dashed. For the model, only values that pass a 5%

confidence test are shaded. The ensembles consist of 36 members for 1983 and 18 members

for 1989. The statistical test takes into account the different ensemble sizes.

91
90N

60N

30N

EQ

30S

60S

90S

90N

60N

30N

EQ

30S

60S

90S

200 mb Height

<'::__T:TZ::::::::

Precipitation

Variance

Variance

I I I

0 60E 120E 180 120W 60W 0

m

J

i

I

m

U

n

I

!

Q

qp

J

J

I

Figure 69: Ratio of the intra-ensemble variance of seasonal means of 200mb geopotential

height and precipitation (1989 / 1983). The ensembles consist of 36 members for 1983 and

18 members for 1989. Shading indicates values are significantly different from one at the

111 two-sided 5% level based on an F test. Contour levels are ... _ _ 2 4 8 .... Contours less

than 1 are dashed. Note the 1 contour is omitted.

I

u

92

U

Q
w

v

r .

w

w

i

ro

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r

m

m

PROBABILISTIC VERIFICATION

93
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Probability Density

I

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Function

I

1 u

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interannual variance of tropical precipitation (mm2day -2)

w

F=

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0.08

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interannual variance of tropical precipitation (mm2day -2)

.°°,% ° °°°,°,

°;°°.

%°

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t , _ , •," ° °: .......

Figure 71: Probability distribution function of the variance of the area-mean precipitation

in the tropical Pacific. The top figure is for the region (0-8 ° N, 160-200 ° E) and the bottom figure for (0-8 ° S, 160-200 ° E). Each variance is computed from synthetic realizations

generated by randomly sampling the ensembles for the 15-year period 1982 to 1996. Distributions are based on 100,000 of the 915 possible combinations. The vertical line is the

observed variance for this period.

95
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PNA index Variance vs Tropical Pacific Variance

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Figure 72: Scatter plot of precipitation and PNA index variance using sub-sampled synthetic

realizations, as in the pdfs shown in the two previous figures. Each point represents the

precipitation and PNA index variance for the same realization. The solid square marks

the variances of the observations. Results are shown for the three models, as in the earlier

figures.

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Figure 79: The 5th and 95th percentiles of the local distribution of the difference of geopotential height at 200 mb (1998 minus 1983). The contour interval is 20 m. The shading

indicated regions where the observations fall outside these percentiles. Observations are

above the 95th percentile over 14.7% of the globe, and below the 5th percentile over 2.4%.

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Figure 80: The 5th and 95th percentiles of the local distribution of the difference of precipitation (1998 minus 1983). The contour interval is 2 ram/day. The shading indicated

regions where the observations fall outside these percentiles. Observations are above the

95th percentile over 3.61% of the globe, and below the 5th percentile over 3.88%.

105
95 'h Percentile

5th Percentile

Figure 81: The 5th and 95th percentiles of the local distribution of the difference of surface

temperature (1998 minus 1983). The contour interval is 1 K. The shading indicated regions

where the observations fall outside these percentiles. Observations are above the 95th

percentile over 2.35% of the land area, and below the 5th percentile over 2.2%.

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Figure 82: The 5th and 95th percentiles of the local distribution of the difference of sealevel pressure (1998 minus 1983). The contour interval is 2 mb. The shading indicated

regions where the observations fall outside these percentiles. Observations are above the

95th percentile over 0.26% of the regions below a kilometer, and below the 5th percentile

over 0.62%.

107
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_I
d

Previous Volumes in This Series

Volume 1

September 199_

Volume 2

October 199_

Volume 3

December 199_

Volume 4

January 1995

Volume 5

April 1995

Volume 6

April 1995

Volume 7

September 1995

Volume 8

March 1996

Documentation of the Goddard Earth Observing System

(GEOS) general circulation model - Version 1

L.L. Takacs, A. Molod, and T. Wang

Direct solution of the implicit formulation of fourth order

horizontal diffusion for gridpoint models on the sphere

Y. Li, S. Moorthi, and J.R. Bates

An efficient thermal infrared radiation parameterization for

use in general circulation models

M.-D. Chou and M.J. Suarez

Documentation of the Goddard Earth Observing System

(GEOS) Data Assimilation System - Version 1

James Pfaendtner, Stephen Bloom, David Lamich,

Michael Seablom, Meta Sienkiewicz, James Stobie,

and Arlindo da Silva

Documentation of the Aries-GEOS dynamical core: Version 2

Max J. Suarez and Lawrence L. Takacs

A Multiyear Assimilation with the GEOS-1 System:

Overview and Results

Siegfried Schubert, Chung-Kyu Park, Chung-Yu Wu,

Wayne Higgins, Yelena Kondratyeva, Andrea Molod,

Lawrence Takacs, Michael Seablom, and Richard

Rood

Proceedings of the Workshop on the GEOS-1

Assimilation

Siegfried D. Schubert and Richard B. Rood

Five-Year

•Documentation of the Tangent Linear Model and Its Adjoint

of the Adiabatic Version of the NASA GEOS-1 C-Grid GCM:

Version 5.2

Weiyu Yang and I. Michael Navon

L

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Volume 9

March 1996

Volume 10

April 1996

Volume 11

May 1997

Volume 12

August 1997

Volume 13

December 1997

Volume 14

August 1998

Volume 15

June 1999

Volume 16

November 1999

Volume 17

July 2000

Energy and Water Balance Calculations in the Mosaic LSM

Randal D. Koster and Max J. Suarez

Dynamical Aspects of Climate Simulations Using the GEOS

General Circulation Model

Lawrence L. Takacs and Max J. Suarez

Documentation of the Tangent Linear and its Adjoint Models

of the Relaxed Arakawa-Schubert Moisture Parameterization

Package of the NASA GEOS-1 GCM (Version 5.2)

Weiyu Yang I. Michael Navon, and Ricardo Todling

Comparison of Satellite Global Rainfall Algorithms

Alfred T.C. Chang and Long S. Chiu

Interannual Variability and Potential Predictability in Reanalysis Products

Wie Ming and Siegfried D. Schubert

A Comparison of GEOS Assimilated Data with FIFE

Observations

Michael G. Bosilovich and Siegfried D. Schubert

A Solar Radiation Parameterization for Atmospheric Studies

Ming-Dah Chou and Max J. Suarez

Filtering Techniques on a Stretched Grid General Circulation

Model

Lawrence Takacs, William Sawyer, Max J. Suarez,

and Michael S. Fox-Rablnowitz

Atlas of Seasonal Means Simulated by the NSIPP-1 Atmospheric GCM

Julio T. Bacmeister, Philip J. Pegion, Siegfried D.

Schubert, and Max J. Suarez

I

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Form Approved

REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE OMBNo.0704-0188

Public reporting burden for this collection of information ts estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing instructions, searching existing data sources,

gathering end maintaining the data needed, and completing and reviewing the collection of information. Send comments regarding this burden estimate or any other aspect of this

collection of informer|on, Including suggestions for reducing this burden, to Washington Headquarters Services, Directorate for Information Operations and Rapods, 1215 Jefferson

Davis Highway, Suite 1204, Arlington, VA 22202-4302, and to the Office of Management end Budget, Paperwork Reduction Project (0704-0188), Washington, DC 20503.

1. AGENCY USE ONLY (Leave blank) 2. REPORT DATE 3. REPORTTYPE AND DATES COVERED

December 2000 Technical Memorandum I I I

4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE - 5. FUNDING NUMBERS

Technical Report Series on Global Modeling and Data Assimilation

Volume 18--An Assessment of the Predictability of Northern Winter Seasonal

Means with the NSIPP 1 AGCM Code 971

6. AUTHOR(S) 971-622-24-47-26

Philip J. Pegion, Siegfried D. Schubert, and Max J. Suarez

7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS (ES)

Oceans and Ice Branch

Goddard Space Flight Center

Greenbelt, Maryland 20771

9. SPONSORING / MONITORING AGENCY NAME(S) AND ADDRESS (ES)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration

Washington, DC 20546-0001

8. PEFORMING ORGANIZATION

REPORT NUMBER

20(X)-

10. SPONSORING I MONITORING

AGENCY REPORT NUMBER

TM-2000-104606, Vol. 18

11. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES

P.J. Pegion: General Sciences Corporation, Laurel, Maryland

12a. DISTRIBUTION / AVAI_.J_BILITY STATEMENT 12b. DISH-IIBUTION CODE

Unclassified-Unlimited

Subject Category: 46

Report available from the NASA Center for AeroSpace Information,

7121 Standard Drive, Hanover, MD 21076-1320. (301) 621-0390.

13. ABSTRACT (Maximum 200 words)

This atlas assesses the predictability of January-February-March (JFM) means using version 1 of the NASA

Seasonal-to-lnterannual Prediction Project Atmospheric General Circulation Model (the NSIPP 1 AGCM). The AGCM is

part of the NSIPP coupled atmosphere-land-ocean model. For these results, the atmosphere was run uncoupled from the

ocean, but coupled with an interactive land model. The results are based on 20 ensembles of nine JFM hindcasts for the

period 1980-1999, with sea surface temperature (SST) and sea ice specified from observations. The model integrations

were started from initial atmospheric conditions (taken from NCEP/NCAR reanalyses) centered on December 15. The

analysis focuses on 200 mb height, precipitation, surface temperature, and sea-level pressure. The results address issues of

both predictability and forecast skill. Various signal-to-noise measures are computed to demonstrate the potential for

skillful prediction on seasonal time scales under the assumption of a perfect model and perfectly known oceanic boundary

forcings. The results show that the model produces a realistic ENSO response in both the tropics and extratropics.

14. SUBJECT TERMS

Predictability, Atmospheric Models, Seasonal Forecasts, lnterannual Variability,

Signal to Noise Ratios

17. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION

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117

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20. LIMITATION OF ABSTRACI

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;tandard Form 298 (Rev. 2-89)

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