ACCEPTED BY COMMITTEE, 05/02/03 

Restoration of Common Murre Colonies in the Copalis National Wildlife Refuge, 

Washington—Phase I 

Draft Final Report to the Tenyo Maru Trustee Council 

14 February 2003 

Christopher W. Thompson1

, Kevin Ryan2, Julia K. Parrish3,4, Stephani Zador3, and 

Kenneth Warheit5

1

Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife, 16018 Mill Creek Blvd., Mill Creek, WA 

98012 

2

U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Washington Maritime National Wildlife Refuge 

Complex, 33 South Barr Road, Port Angeles, WA 98362 

3

School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences, University of Washington, Box 355020, 

Seattle, WA 98195-5020 

4

Biology Department, University of Washington 

5

Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife, 600 Capitol Way N., Olympia, WA 

98501-1091 
TMTC COPALIS FINAL REPORT – DRAFT 7/15/04 

TABLE OF CONTENTS 

Introduction.......................................................................... 1 

Review of Social Attraction Techniques....................................... 4 

Methods............................................................................... 4 

Study areas................................................................... 5 

Ground-based Monitoring................................................. 7 

Point Grenville..................................................... 8 

Tatoosh Island...................................................... 9 

Yaquina Head, Oregon............................................ 9 

Murre Demography......................................................... 9 

Point Grenville..................................................... 9 

Erin and Erin’s Bride..................................... 9 

 Grenville Arch............................................. 10 

 Grenville Pillar............................................ 10 

 Tatoosh Island...................................................... 10 

 Cliff top colonies..........................................10 

 Crevice colonies.......................................... 11 

 Attendance................................................................... 11 

 Phenology.................................................................... 12 

 Reproductive Success...................................................... 14 

Adult Murre Time-budgets................................................ 14 

Murre Chick Diets.......................................................... 15 

Sources of Potential Demographic Impact.............................. 16 

 Oceanographic Indices............................................ 16 

 Eagles................................................................ 17 

 Other Disturbances................................................. 18 

At Sea Surveys............................................................... 18 

 Population Monitoring............................................ 19 

 Sampling Design.......................................... 19 

Grid Transects............................................. 21 

 Description of Survey Area.............................. 22 

 Aerial Surveys............................................................... 24 

Results and Discussion............................................................ 25 

 Logistical Feasibility....................................................... 25 

 Wilderness Constraints............................................ 26 

 Biological Feasibility....................................................... 27 

 Murre Population Estimates...................................... 27 

Reproductive Timing and Effort................................. 32 

Adult Foraging and Chick Diet................................... 34 

Potential Sources of Instability................................... 37 

 Oceanographic Forcing................................... 37 

 Predators................................................... 40 

 Other Disturbance......................................... 42 

 Pelicans............................................ 42 

 Planes.............................................. 42 

 Summary of Biological Feasiblity............................... 43 

Conclusions and Recommendations............................................ 43 

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Literature Cited.................................................................... 47 

Figure Legends...................................................................... 53 

Appendix A: Use of Decoys to Alter Aspects of Common Murre 

Reproduction 

Appendix B1: Point Grenville Trip Report 

B2: Mike Parker’s Decoy Deployment Methods 

B3: Phone Converstion with Mike Parker 

Appendix C: Common Murre (Uria aalge) Subcolony Descriptions:Point 

Grenville 

Appendix D1: Numbers and densities of murres along the Strait of Juan 

de Fuca and outer coast of Washington in 2000 

D2: Numbers and densities of murres along the Strait of Juan 

de Fuca and outer coast of Washington in 2001 

D3: Numbers and densities of murres around Carroll and 

Jagged Islands in 2001 

D4: Numbers and densities of murres around Quilleute 

Needles in 2001 

D5: Numbers and densities of murres around Grenville Rocks 

in 2001 

D6: Numbers and densities of murres around Tatoosh Island 

in 2001 

D7: Numbers and densities of murres along the outer coast of

Washington in 2002 

D8: Numbers and densities of murres observed during grid 

transects in 2002 

Appendix E: Average Estimated Annual Attendance at Tatoosh Island 

Appendix F: Letter from Kevin Ryan, Washington Maritime NWR 

Complex Manager 

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TMTC COPALIS FINAL REPORT – DRAFT 7/15/04 

INTRODUCTION 

On 22 July 1991, the Chinese freighter Tuo Hai struck and sank the Japanese fishing 

vessel Tenyo Maru while entering the Strait of Juan de Fuca, approximately 20 miles 

northwest of Cape Flattery on the Washington coast (Figure 1). Oil from the Tenyo Maru

quickly spread south across the mouth of the Strait, impacting the Washington shoreline 

and nearshore natural resources, including seabirds. In total, 100,000 gallons were 

estimated spilled (Neel et al. 1997). The heaviest oiling occurred along the northern 

outer coast of Washington, in the Makah Indian Reservation and the Olympic National 

Park (TMOSNRT 2000). 

The spill occurred during the seabird breeding season, when gregarious nearshore species 

such as common murres, Uria aalge, and rhinoceros auklets, Cerorhinca monocerata, 

feed and congregate in proximity to breeding colonies (Parrish et al. 1998). In particular, 

murres regularly form large rafts (hundreds to thousands of individuals) within a 

kilometer of their breeding colonies (Parrish et al. 1998, Burger 1997). Diving seabirds, 

especially murres, are known to suffer oil spill related mortality in disproportionate 

numbers to their representation in the coastal seabird community (Burger 1992, Wiese 

2002). In the northern hemisphere, in oiling events in both the Pacific and Atlantic, 

murres represent roughly three quarters of the total recovered kill (Burger and Fry 1993). 

The specific causes for this sensitivity are unknown, however there are several plausible 

explanations. Seabird species most at risk of oiling: (1) roost on the water surface, (2) 

escape by diving, (3) feed subsurface, (4) have small wintering areas, and (5) overlap 

with shipping lanes, the latter a general characteristic of coastal species (Camphuysen 

and Heubeck 2001, Camphuysen 1998, Burger 1991). 

Within weeks of the sinking, 4,300 carcasses had been recovered (TMOSNRT 2000). 

Thirty species were affected; however the majority of the carcasses were murres (3,157 

carcasses or 73%; Table 1). Because all oiled carcasses do not wash ashore, some may 

be buried by wave action or scavenged, and others may not be found by volunteers, it is 

generally accepted that carcass recovery represents 10-30% of total mortality (Burger 

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TMTC COPALIS FINAL REPORT – DRAFT 7/15/04 

1993, Piatt and Ford 1996). Thus conservatively, 10,000 - 30,000 murres may have been 

killed by this event. 

As is typical of many seabird species, murres display a long-lived, low fecundity life 

history strategy (Gaston and Jones 1998, Nettleship and Birkhead 1985, Tuck 1961). In 

these species, population growth (lambda) is classically highly sensitive to minute 

changes in adult mortality (Nur and Sydeman 1999), although persistent exaggerated 

depression of reproductive output can also depress population growth (Parrish et al. 

2001). In addition, murres are natally philopatric (Harris et al. 1996) - although straying 

does occur (Friesen et al. 1996) - a trait which would tend to accentuate the impacts of 

local mortality sources. Thus, small scale oil spills, or other mortality events, might be 

expected to differentially affect local colonies, especially during the breeding season 

when experienced adult breeders are most highly concentrated in the area. 

Breeding populations of murres in the Pacific Northwest are variably sized. In Alaska, 

the species is well represented: Bering and Chukchi Seas ~1.4 million breeding nesting

birds; Gulf of Alaska ~0.5 – 2 million nesting murres (Ainley et al. 2002). At the south 

end of their range in California and Oregon, murre numbers are in the same order of 

magnitude (~1 million; Carter et al. 2001, Ainley et al. 2002). The largest colony in the 

lower 48 states – Shag Rock in Three Arch Rocks complex (132,000 murres in 1988) – is 

located in northern Oregon (Carter et al. 2001). However, in Washington, British 

Columbia and southeast Alaska – the middle of the species’ range – populations are quite 

low. Just prior to the spill, perhaps only 10,000 in WA (Carter et al. 2001, Parrish et al. 

2001) with perhaps an additional 10,000 birds in British Columbia (Carter et al. 2001),

and an additional ~15,000 in southeast Alaska (Ainley et al. 2002). Thus, depending on 

the actual numbers and origins of the murres killed in the spill, serious impacts may have 

occurred to local populations. 

Multivariate morphometric analysis of recovered carcasses was used to determine likely 

population origin of murres killed in the Tenyo Maru spill (Warheit 1996). Although this 

study was not able to resolve individual colony signatures, several important results 

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TMTC COPALIS FINAL REPORT – DRAFT 7/15/04 

emerged. First, 37% of examined carcasses were young-of-the-year. Second, 77% of 

adult carcasses were male. These data suggest that a significant portion of the murre kill 

were post-fledging chicks, usually accompanied by the male parent (Manuwal et al. 

2001). These individuals were likely Oregon breeders, as Washington colonies fledge 

chicks in August-September (Parrish 1995) whereas Oregon colonies fledge chicks in 

June-July (Manuwal et al. 2001). Based on measurement differences resolved by 

principal components analysis relative to known-location reference specimens, combined 

with knowledge of breeding phenology of major West Coast murre colonies, Warheit 

(1996) concluded that 55-58% of murres killed were Washington breeders. Total 

Washington kill was estimated at between 4,500 and 11,500 murres. Tenyo Maru

Trustees referred to the Washington murre kill as “a potentially sizable proportion of the 

total Washington state common murre population” (TMOSNRT 2000). What remains 

unclear is the degree to which any one colony was affected by the spill. 

Because the number of murres recovered after the spill was large, the majority of 

Washington colonies are small and many are unstable, murres are subject to mortality 

from a variety of sources, and the murre population on Tatoosh Island (the colony closest 

to the spill) declined in the years following the spill (TMOSNRT 2000), a proposal was 

put forward to examine the potential of restoring the common murre population, using 

social attraction methods (Kress 1983, Kress 1998, Parker et al. 2001) ). The restoration 

project was broken into two phases. Phase I was a feasibility study to determine whether 

“(1) social attraction enhancement activities are warranted, and (2) project 

implementation would be impeded by physical or natural limitations” (TMOSNRT 

2000). Phase II, contingent upon the results from Phase I, would “restore common murre 

colonies, using social attraction techniques, to locations in the Copalis National Wildlife 

Refuge,” and monitor the results (TMOSNRT 2000). 

This document reports on Phase I of that restoration effort, specifically examining the 

logistical and biological feasibility of using decoys and playbacks to attract breeding 

murres to the Copalis National Wildlife Refuge murre colonies, in order to rebuild the 

Washington murre population. In addition to data collected specifically under the 

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TMTC COPALIS FINAL REPORT – DRAFT 7/15/04 

auspices of this two year study, we report on relevant data collected previously and 

contemporaneously under the auspices of Washington Sea Grant and National Oceanic 

and Atmospheric Administration Coastal Ocean Programs studies at Tatoosh Island, WA 

and at Yaquina Head, OR; at-sea data collected under the auspices of U.S. Fish and 

Wildlife Service Section 6 funding and Washington Department of Natural Resources 

funding for marbled murrelet data collection; and U. S. Fish and Wildlife Refuge funding 

for aerial surveys of coastal Refuge seabird populations. 

REVIEW OF SOCIAL ATTRACTION TECHNIQUES

Social attraction techniques were pioneered in the restoration of seabird colonies by Steve 

Kress and co-workers (Kress 1983). Since that time, decoys and sound playback systems 

have been used to attract numerous species to nesting sites (Kress 1998 for review). With 

respect to common murres, decoys have been successful in attracting murres to 

recolonize Devil’s Slide Rock, and start an actively reproducing colony (Parker et al.

2001). Thus, it is clear that social attraction works, and that social attraction can be used 

specifically to attract murres to colonize “new” breeding areas. On Tatoosh, a pilot study 

(Appendix A) indicated that the use of decoys on an extant colony could crystallize 

laying, and would perhaps enhance nesting synchrony. However, this study also showed 

that predators, principally bald eagles, Haliaeetus leucocephalus, were attracted to the 

decoys as potential prey. Disturbance caused by eagles was deleterious to nesting, 

causing egg and nest site abandonment, and perhaps even increased risk of death of those 

pairs nesting in the vicinity of decoys. Thus, it is apparent that caution must be used 

when placing decoys or other attraction devices in sites with avian predators. Finally, 

this study indicated that decoys placed in safe locations (defined as out of reach of 

eagles) did have a positive effect. 

METHODS 

Three types of data were collected during the course of this study by the participating 

agencies (Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife, WDFW; U.S. Fish and Wildlife 

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TMTC COPALIS FINAL REPORT – DRAFT 7/15/04 

Service Washington Outer Coastal National Wildlife Refuge, the Refuge) and their 

contractor (University of Washington, UW). WDFW personnel collected at-sea data in 

the immediate area around various historic and current murre colonies including (1) Point 

Grenville, (2) Quilleute Needles (especially Huntingdon Island), (3) Carroll and Jagged 

Islands, and (4) Tatoosh Island, as well as more generally along the Washington outer 

coast. Refuge personnel collected aerial census data on all murre colonies within the 

Refuge. UW personnel collected on the ground data on the Point Grenville colonies, as 

well as on Tatoosh, the reference colony. 

Study areas 

Colony-based data collection was concentrated on two Washington outer-coast areas: 

Point Grenville, which houses a series of rocky outcroppings and islands as part of the 

Copalis National Wildlife Refuge (NWR), and Tatoosh Island, the northernmost murre 

colony in Washington located immediately south of the U.S. Canada border (Figure 1). 

Minimal observations were made of Split and Willoughby Islands, farther to the north 

(but also within the Copalis NWR). Despite the use of a Questar spotting scope (80x 

Birder), the islands were too distant to observe murres accurately. Therefore, these 

colonies were dropped immediately as realistic options for accurate data collection of 

murre attendance, reproductive success, or reproductive phenology, at least from groundbased positions. 

The study focused on four colonies within the Copalis NWR in the immediate vicinity of 

Point Grenville (47°18'N, 124°16'W): Erin, Erin’s Bride, Grenville Arch, and Grenville 

Pillar (Figure 2). These colonies comprise the current and historical murre nesting areas 

in this region (Speich and Wahl 1989). At present, murres nesting on the Point Point 

Grenville occupy ledges or crevices in vertical and sloping cliff face, as well as tops of

rocky sea stacks and islands (e.g., Grenville Arch). Two of the colonies, Erin and 

Grenville Pillar, are totally or partially covered on the top with perennial grasses, and no 

murres nest in these areas. Erin’s Bride and Grenville Pillar are not accessible from the 

water, whereas Erin and Grenville Arch can be climbed without ropes (Appendix B). In 

addition to murres, 7 other seabird species nest on the Point Grenville colonies (Speich 

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and Wahl 1989; Table 2). All observations during ground-based monitoring were 

conducted from observation points on the Point Grenville cliffs and Grenville Bay Beach. 

Permission to access these locations was granted by the Quinault Indian Nation. 

Tatoosh Island (48°24'N, 124°44'W) is actually a complex of islands and rocky 

outcroppings (land area approximately 6 ha). The Island is owned by the Makah Indian 

Tribe, and has been uninhabitated (except for researcher presence during the summer 

months) since the U.S. Coast Guard automated the light house in 1976. Permission to 

conduct research on the Island was granted by the Makah Tribe. Permission to use 

helicopters to access the Island was granted by the Olympic Coast National Marine 

Sanctuary. In addition to murres, Tatoosh is inhabited by 10 species of breeding seabirds 

(Paine et al. 1990, Table 2). Murres nest in two habitat types: crevices cut into vertical 

cliff wall and on the cliff-top at cliff’s edge. Two predatory species, bald eagles, 

Haliaeetus leucocephalus, and peregrine falcons, Falco peregrinus, visit throughout the 

year and represent known mortality sources for the island’s seabirds although neither 

predator currently breeds on the island (Parrish et al. 2001). Tatoosh has no resident 

rodents. 

Yaquina Head (44°41'N, 124°05'W) is immediately north of Newport, OR. All 

observations are conducted from a lighthouse at the western tip of the headlands. 

Permission to conduct research at Yaquina Head was granted by the Bureau of Land 

Management, who manage access to the Yaquina Head Outstanding Natural Area. The 

U.S. Coast Guard gave us access to the lighthouse lantern room as a viewing platform. In 

addition to murres, four species of seabirds breed on the four islands and rocky 

outcroppings immediately offshore, as well as on the headland itself (Table 2). Occupied 

space on the upper portions of the rocks, plus the headland edges, is approximately 0.5 ha 

(D. Pitkin, Oregon Coastal National Wildlife Refuges, pers. comm. 2002). Seabirds, 

including murres, nesting on the headlands are subject to disturbance by a range of 

predators, including raccoons, river otters, opossums, feral cats, and rats. Bald eagles and 

peregrine falcons visit the site daily. Finally, over 500 tourists visit the lighthouse and 

surrounding platforms each day during the summer. 

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Ground-based Monitoring 

Data collected at all colonies included: (1) annual attendance counts as a measure of 

population size, (2) daily attendance counts of reference subcolonies, to estimate intraannual and diurnal variation, (3) reproductive success of reference pairs within reference 

subcolonies, (4) reproductive phenology of same, (5) foraging rate and chick diet within 

reference subcolonies, (6) sources of disturbance, including predators, space competitors, 

and human activities. In some locations, these data were modified due to logistical 

constraints. In addition, several observational experiments were conducted prior to and 

during the two year study period to augment the longitudinal dataset outlined above. 

These include a pilot decoy experiment on Tatoosh Island prior to the start of this study 

(Appendix A), and coordinated time-budget watches of reference pairs at Tatoosh, Point 

Grenville, and Yaquina Head to indirectly examine potential differences in food 

availability.

At Point Grenville, all ground-based observations were made with the aid of spotting 

scopes (20-60x Swarovski AT80HD; and 80x Questar Birder), with the exception of 

predator/disturbance observations, which were made with binoculars (10x42 Swarovski 

SLC). On Tatoosh, data were collected by observation, with the aid of spotting scopes 

(20-60x Swarovski AT80HD) and binoculars (8x30 Swarovski SLC) in the case of the 

crevice subcolonies. Cliff-top subcolonies were observed from blinds located at the edge 

of the nesting area. Most data can be collected from land; however, certain subcolonies 

could only be observed from boats. In these cases, counts were made from photographs 

(lens magnification at 300mm and 500mm) taken during calm afternoons, when the 

southwest-facing cliffs were well lit. For both locations, reference photographs were 

taken of each subcolony in each year, during the egg-chick period. 

Data were also compiled from several remote sources, to augment on-colony data. 

Number of eagle eyries within 24 km of the Point Grenville and Tatoosh colonies were 

supplied by WDFW and the Quinault Indian Nation (Sally Butts, contact). 

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TMTC COPALIS FINAL REPORT – DRAFT 7/15/04 

Oceanographic and atmospheric data were taken from a variety of government and 

postprocessing websites (URLs provided below). 

We report the total number of days spent at observation points each season. To aid in 

analysis of eagle activity, we also report the total number of hours spent observing 

murres before and after July 20th, which approximates the date when eagle activity is 

known to decrease due to eaglet fledging along the Washington coast (Parrish et al. 

2001). We refer to both the Tatoosh Island complex and Point Point Grenville as murre 

colonies, and isolated clusters of nesting murres within these areas as subcolonies. 

Point Grenville 

In 2001, Stephani Zador and Dan Nelson began regular observations in the Point 

Grenville area on June 6th (Table 3). Two earlier field trips took place accompanied by 

Sally Butts, the wildlife biologist for the Quinalt Indian Nation: (1) an introduction to 

Point Grenville on May 24 and (2) a trip to view Split and Willoughby Islands from an

observation point near Hogsback on June 1st. Observations were restricted to rocks 

visible from Grenville Bay beach (Erin, Erin's Bride, and Grenville Arch) until July 13, 

when regular access to Point Grenville was granted the Quinalt Indian Nation. Fieldwork 

was conducted an average of six days per week until August 23. An additional day of 

observation occurred on August 27 to confirm fledging of the latest chicks. In 2002, 

Stephani Zador and Dan Davis began regular observations at the Point Grenville area on 

June 12 (Table 3). Fieldwork was conducted an average of 5 days per week until August 

30. An additional day of observation occurred on September 4 to confirm fledging of the 

latest chicks. 

On April 2, 2002, personnel associated with the Tenyo Maru murre restoration project 

surveyed the Point Grenville area by helicopter and boat (Appendix B). The goal of the 

trip was to assess access to current and potential murre nesting areas for the purpose of

decoy deployment. 

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Tatoosh Island 

On 23 May 2001, Julia Parrish, assisted by Brian Walker, made the first visit to Tatoosh 

to install blinds. Due to early season safety considerations, this trip was made by 

helicopter. A post-season trip to decommission the blinds was also made by helicopter 

on 21 to 24 September 2001. Regular data collection began on 10 June, continued 

through 17 August, and was conducted by Julia Parrish, and her graduate students and 

employees (Table 3). All regular season visits were made via boat. In 2002, regular data 

collection began on 10 June, continued through 16 August, and was conducted by Julia 

Parrish, and her graduate students and employees (Table 3). Because the island is shared 

as a research site with other scientists who focus on intertidal ecology during 3-5 day 

intervals surrounding the new and full moons, continuous observation throughout the 

breeding season is not possible. 

Yaquina Head, Oregon 

On April 21, 2001, Colin French and Erin Hagen made the first visit to Yaquina Head to 

begin colony observations from a temporary blind located on the hill behind the 

lighthouse. Access to the Yaquina Head lighthouse was granted on May 26. Data 

collection continued daily through July 24. Additional data were collected by Julia 

Parrish between May 26 and 28. In 2002, Colin French and Gillian Lichota commenced 

regular data collection from the lighthouse on April 29. Data were collected daily 

through July 25. 

Murre Demography 

Point Grenville 

Opportunities for murre observations varied among colony rocks because of distances 

from the observation points (Appendix C). Accordingly, monitoring activities are 

summarized by rock/islets. 

Erin and Erin’s Bride 

Murres on Erin and Erin's Bride were counted regularly from observation points (GBS, 

GBN, GBNNN) along Grenville Beach and occasionally from observation points on

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Point Grenville (PGS, PGW). Most counts occurred in the morning and early afternoon 

before the rocks were backlit by sun. Murres that appeared to be nesting (assumed from

continuous occupation of a site) were mapped and observed carefully for any sign of 

chicks. From the observation points, sightings of chicks occurred only when they were 

large enough to be seen standing independently of the parents. Therefore we assumed all 

chicks seen were at least 10-15 days old and subsequently fledged. Counting and nest 

monitoring ended when chicks had fledged and/or when nesting areas were vacant. 

Grenville Arch 

Murres on Grenville Arch were counted regularly from one observation point on Point 

Grenville (PGW SP viewing area) and occasionally from points along Grenville Bay

Beach. Counts occurred throughout the day, visibility permitting. We made the same

assumptions as above for the single continuously attended nest site and chick (in 2002). 

Observations continued throughout the season. 

Grenville Pillar (a.k.a. Big Stack)

Murres on Grenville Pillar were counted regularly from 2 observation points on Point 

Grenville (PGW and PGW SP viewing area). Most counts occurred in the morning and 

early afternoon before the rocks were backlit by sun. In addition, sequential hourly counts 

were made at the CT sub-colony in 2002 to assess diurnal attendance patterns. The 

appearance and disappearance of observable eggs and chicks were recorded every 1-3

days to assess phenology and productivity. 

Tatoosh Island 

Cliff top colonies 

Two cliff-top subcolonies (MCT-EXT; Petrified Colony) were monitored during the 

study period. Each had up to two blinds which faced non-overlapping regions within the 

murre nesting area. From each blind, 86 to 111 pairs were selected within a contiguous 

area (reproductive plot) which included the blind. All nesting murres within the plots 

were mapped and assigned numbers for identification purposes. Daily records of nest 

status for all mapped breeders were collected during each trip, where data included 

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reproductive status (egg, chick, fledged chick). Attendance of the entire nesting area was 

occasionally counted throughout the egg and chick period. During these counts, all 

visible murres were counted from all blinds on a subcolony, and murre numbers in areas 

not completely visible were extrapolated from areal and known nesting density 

measurements. Blind-based observations of cliff-top subcolonies were possible from

dawn to dusk (from 0600 to 2200), in all but the most inclement weather. Observations 

ranged in time from 0530 to 2140, in a minimum of 1/2 hr blocks evenly spaced 

throughout the day (approximately 210 to 250 hrs in total among all blinds). 

Crevice colonies 

All data on monitored subcolonies were collected from Burning Barrel Point (BBPT), a 

promontory which affords a 270 degree view of ten spatially distinct crevice subcolonies 

(CC1-5, TC1-4, WBMCT), one cliff-top subcolony (Pole Island), and several eagle 

roosting areas (West Rocks, Strawberry Island). All ten crevice subcolonies were 

monitored for daily attendance. Four of these (CC1-4; 9 to 34 pairs) were specifically 

monitored for reproductive success, using the methods outlined above. Observations 

from BBPT ranged in time from 0630 to 2200, in a minimum of 1/2hr blocks evenly 

spaced throughout the day (approximately 30 to 45 hrs in total), restricted by wind (above 

10 knots), rain, and fog. Additional data were collected on attendance, chick presence, 

and adult mortality from a variety of locations around the island, as well as from boats. 

No specific record of hours spent was kept in these situations, although all data was 

recorded as a specific function of when (both date and time of day) it was collected. 

Attendance 

Attendance, defined as the estimated number of adult murres on the colony or subcolony 

at the time of the count, was calculated at Point Grenville was determined by repeated 

counts of subcolonies of murres by both observers. Early in each breeding season, both 

observers counted each subcolony until counts were within 10%. Later in the breeding 

season, when each observer was more experienced, a single person would count 

repeatedly until successive counts were within 10%. Counts were made throughout 

daylight hours throughout the season as conditions permitted. Dense fog and 

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afternoon/early evening backlighting were the most common conditions that precluded 

counting. Data are reported as the mean and maximum count value per rock/islet. In 

addition, the minimum number of continuously attended sites are reported as an estimate 

of nesting attempts. 

At Tatoosh, attendance was calculated from averaged counts made after egg laying had 

begun but before chick fledging had begun (egg and chick periods) and reported annually 

as an afternoon count (operationally defined annually by statistical differences in counts 

as a function of time of day, and actually defined in 2001 and 2002 as after 1400H). 

Because some subcolonies were only counted once, there is no estimate of variation 

around annual islandwide attendance. 

Direct counts of the smaller subcolonies (<300 birds), and extrapolated estimates from

partial (~25-30%) counts of the larger subcolonies were combined to produce a value for 

total island attendance. Several correction factors were applied. Because some

subcolonies could only be counted during the morning due to tidal constraints, a within 

year correction factor was applied to all morning-only counts, based on the difference 

between multiply-counted subcolonies from morning to afternoon. Morning-to-afternoon 

corrections ranged from 1.1 to 1.2. For subcolony attendance taken from photographs, a 

correction factor of 1.5 was applied, to account for individuals in the interior of ledges 2-

4 birds deep which remained in shadow. Because several different personnel made 

counts during each season, inter-person corrections were used to delete select data from

the final dataset as follows: concurrent counts were made with the most experienced 

datacollector (Parrish) early in the season, until junior counters independently came

within 10% of the experienced count. At this point, data collected by the junior counters 

was included. Periodic checks insured continuing accuracy. 

Phenology 

Breeding phenology was defined as the timing of three reproductive events: egg laying, 

chick hatching, and chick fledging. Phenological information was collected from known 

or estimated dates for each event per observed pair. For egg laying and/or hatching, an 

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egg duration of 32 days was assumed (that is, hatching on the 32nd day). This value has 

been corroborated on Tatoosh (Parrish 1997) as well as at other common murre colonies 

(Ainley et al 2002). Therefore, if laying was observed and hatching was not, the latter 

could be calculated to the day, and vice versa. If neither laying nor hatching was 

observed, hatch date could still be estimated as follows. Chicks peck their way out of the 

egg, a process which usually takes several days. Based on data collected from Tatoosh 

prior to this study (Parrish unpub. data): pips (star-shaped cracks or very small holes) first 

appeared three days before hatch; holes (5-8mm) appeared the day prior to hatch; large

holes or multiple holes appeared the day of hatch. In addition, eggshell fragments larger 

than 1cm in the immediate vicinity of the pair lasted only the day of the hatch; and chicks 

hatched wet, a condition which lasted several hours after hatch. Outside of these cases, 

hatch date could be placed within a time window bounded by observer presence. In these 

cases, known and estimated dates (as above) were used to construct an annual 

distribution, which was fit with a simple polynomial, allowing in-fill of pairs with 

uncalculated dates. In this latter case, specific hatch dates were not ascribed to individual 

pairs/chicks, but the inferred distribution was used to calculate quartiles of phenological 

event occurrence. 

Phenology was used to divide the breeding season into four periods: prelaying – before 

the appearance of eggs; egg period – from first appearance of eggs to first appearance of 

chicks; chick period – from first appearance of chicks to first fledging; fledging – after 

first fledging until no chicks remained. Each period could be calculated per subcolony, as 

well as per colony. Phenological periods were used to bound attendance counts – for 

instance, only counts made during the egg and chick periods were used to assess colony 

size. 

Date-specific phenological data were used to calculate: (1) median lay, hatch, and fledge 

dates (in cases where sample size was large and evenly distributed), (2) quartiles of lay 

and hatch, reported as date range over which the middle 50% of monitored pairs achieved 

a given stage, and (3) first to last range. Quartiles were used when continuous access was 

not possible. 

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TMTC COPALIS FINAL REPORT – DRAFT 7/15/04 

Reproductive Success 

Reproductive success was defined as successfully fledging a chick, or chicks per pair 

within subcolony or colony. Fledging was defined either by (1) actual event - the chick 

was observed in the day of the evening of fledging, may have been observed giving the 

chick fledging call (three short, shrill chirps) and/or leaving the subcolony in the 

company of a parent, and was never observed on subsequent days, nor were both parents 

ever observed together; or (2) the chick reached 18 days of age. The latter measure was 

used as fledging in this species occurs at 20-24 days (Ainley et al. 2002), and previous 

work on Tatoosh indicated that chicks older than 15 were extremely unlikely to die oncolony (Parrish unpub. data). For unsuccessful fledging, cause of loss was recorded, if 

known, as: egg lost (usually to predators – glaucous-winged gulls or Northwestern crows, 

and occasionally bald eagles), egg never hatched (dud egg), chick lost/died. In the case 

of egg loss, replacement eggs were often laid. Replacement eggs were confirmed, if 

possible, by matching egg color and spotting pattern, and replacement date 

(approximately 14 days after egg loss, Ainley et al. 2002). Replacement eggs did not 

alter fledging or reproductive success calculations, as these values are calculated per pair, 

regardless of the number of eggs (very occasionally three eggs) were laid. 

We report all eggs and chicks seen at the Point Grenville subcolonies. At nests that could 

be monitored closely (plots CT and PC on Grenville Pillar), chicks last seen at 18 days or 

older were considered to have fledged successfully; at distant nests, chicks large enough 

to be observed were considered old enough to fledge successfully. Tatoosh murre 

reproductive success includes every nest in a subcolony in which an egg was laid. 

Successful nests are those which fledged a chick, plus those with chicks last seen at 18 

days or older, except in cliff-top nesting areas. 

Adult Murre Time-budgets 

In 2002, we conducted an observational experiment to determine the degree to which 

local food availability might be affecting colony stability at the Point Grenville colonies. 

We reasoned that if food was scarce or of low quality, adults would have to spend more 

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TMTC COPALIS FINAL REPORT – DRAFT 7/15/04 

time foraging, which would translate into longer foraging trips and shorter overlap 

periods when fisher and incubator/brooder switched roles. Several studies suggest that 

co-attendance declined with declining food conditions (Burger and Piatt 1990, Zador and 

Piatt 1999). Thus, co-attendance is a sensitive index of food availability, and by 

association, of oceanographic forcing of coastal productivity. To create viable 

comparisons, we collected data from two additional colonies: Tatoosh Island to the north, 

and Yaquina Head to the south. 

We conducted five continuous watches of 7-16 hours duration at all three colonies to 

record and compare diurnal patterns of parental co-attendance, and, when chicks were 

present, chick-feeding rates and the durations of foraging trips. Watches were conducted 

for 8-9 hours at the CT subcolony on Grenville Pillar, for 7-16 hours at the PC2 study 

plot at Tatoosh, and for 8-14 at the CR1 at Yaquina. Variable watch lengths reflected 

differential exposure of observers (Point Grenville – exposed; Tatoosh and Yaquina – not 

exposed), low sun angle precluding observation (Pt Grenville, Yaquina), and partial days 

due to truncated trips (Tatoosh). 

For 9 (Point Grenville) to 25 (Tatoosh) pairs within plots monitored for reproductive 

success, we recorded the time of day (to the minute) any parent left or returned. For 

returning parents, we recorded the species and size (length) of any fish brought back. 

Watches were scheduled to coincide with breeding stages (early incubation, late 

incubation, early, mid, and late chick-rearing), and therefore occurred on different days at 

each colony. All watches began 45 minutes after sunrise and continued for 8 hours. We 

report the data as the percent of time during the watches that both adults attended nest 

sites. Data are presented for the first and second 4 hour blocks, as well as the entire 8 

hour period. The sample size is the number of nests watched. 

 

Murre Chick Diets 

All fish returned to reproductive plots (Point Grenville) or subplots (Tatoosh) were 

identified to the lowest possible taxonomic level and their lengths were estimated to the 

nearest quarter murre beak length (converted post-season to cm, using the standardization 

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TMTC COPALIS FINAL REPORT – DRAFT 7/15/04 

1 beak length = 7.6cm, Parrish unpub. data). Fish were identified using a combination of 

species or higher taxon-specific characters from the dorsal fin back, as adult murre carry 

single fish head in – tail out. Unknown fish were drawn in field notes according to: 

number, placement, and shape of fins; presence of fin spines; shape of tail and caudal 

peduncle; body width-depth-length ratios; body, fin, and tail coloring; degree of 

countershading; degree of translucency; presence of photophores; for potential postobservation identification. All newly identified species were subsequently confirmed by 

additional observations. In each year at each colony, we attempted to collect 100 hours 

of “fish watch” observation or 1000 identified fish. 

Chick-feeding rates at Point Grenville were monitored at the CT and PC (in 2001 only) 

subcolonies. Watches of 1 - 1.5 hours in duration were conducted at intervals spread 

evenly throughout observation days, which were later binned to compliment inter-colony 

comparisons. Separate watches focusing only on identifying fish were conducted at the 

SP sub-colony, where incoming murres with fish could be most readily observed, 

although delivery to specific nest sites could not. At Tatoosh, chick-feeding observations 

within monitored subplots (TPCT2#s 1 and 2, PC#s 1 and 2) occurred over one hour 

intervals beginning at 0600, 0900, 1200, 1500, and 1800. Feeding rate data are presented 

in 2 ways: as hourly rates during time-budget watches only and as hourly averages during 

5 time periods (0600-0730; 0731-1030; 1031-1330; 1331-1630; 1631-1900) that include 

all watches.

Sources of Potential Demographic Impact 

Oceanographic Indices 

Changes as well as absolute differences in physical ocean properties have been well 

correlated with changes in local to regional biomass, from phytoplankton through 

seabirds (Roemmich and McGowan 1995, Veit 1997, Francis et al. 1998, Sydeman et al. 

2001). This “bottom-up” forcing is thought to affect seabirds primarily through the 

abundance, predictability, and perhaps quality of fish resources (Veit 1997). However, it 

is also the case that local conditions may swamp larger-scale physical forcing, such that 

even well-documented events (e.g., El Niño-Southern Oscillation, ENSO) do not limit 

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TMTC COPALIS FINAL REPORT – DRAFT 7/15/04 

prey availability (Parrish and Zador, in press). Because it is practically impossible to 

accurately quantify prey availability, we used several measures of oceanographic or

atmospheric forcing developed and used by the oceanographic and fisheries community 

as proxies. We reasoned that patterns in this physical forcing may help to explain 

patterns in murre behaviors and reproductive success. 

For a measure that represents physical change at the scale of the Pacific Ocean Basin, we 

chose the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) The MEI 

(http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/~kew/MEI) integrates six physical components (sea level 

pressure, zonal and meridional components of the surface wind, sea surface temperature, 

surface air temperature, and total cloudiness fraction of the sky) measured between 30o

N 

and 30o

S, Pacific-wide. To represent physical change at a regional (i.e. North Pacific) 

scale, we chose the Pacific Interdecadal Oscillation (PDO). The PDO 

(ftp://ftp.atmos.washington.edu/mantua/pnw_impacts/INDICES/PDO.latest) is the 

leading principal component of monthly sea surface temperature anomalies in the North 

Pacific Ocean, poleward of 20o

N. Values are corrected for any global warming signal by 

the removal of monthly mean global average sea surface temperatures. 

Eagles 

As bald eagles have been shown to be a significant negative force in reproductive and 

population trends of murres nesting on Tatoosh (Parrish 1995, Parrish et al. 2001), we 

recorded eagle activity at both colonies in several ways. We recorded mortality as the 

number of direct kills of murres by eagles. Data are presented separated by phenological 

period (pre-lay, egg, chick, and fledging periods). We recorded eagle activity as the 

number of times an eagle (the same or different) flew past a standard observation location 

(BBPT on Tatoosh; over the water in the vicinity of Grenville Pillar and Grenville Arch

at Point Grenville). Data are presented as hourly averages before July 20th and later. We 

recorded eagle presence in two ways: First, the number of active eagle eyries within a 24 

km of the colonies. Second, the maximum number of individual eagles seen: for each 

observation day at Point Grenville, and per 3-5 day trip to Tatoosh (data collected by R.T. 

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TMTC COPALIS FINAL REPORT – DRAFT 7/15/04 

Paine). We also present the average maximum number of eagles for 3-4 consecutive day 

intervals at Point Grenville for comparisons with values from Tatoosh. 

Other Disturbances 

At both colonies we recorded opportunistic observations of potential causes of 

disturbance to the murres. These were counts of aircraft over-flights and boat traffic, as 

well as other birds, such as gulls (Larus glaucescens), crows (Corvus caurinus), brown 

pelicans (Pelecanus occidentalis), and peregrine falcons (Falco peregrinus). 

At Sea Surveys 

As stated in the Final Work Plan, “It is the at-sea population portion of the population 

that will serve as the source of recruits” for rocks on which we may place decoys. Thus 

both small scale (grid surveys around Pt. Point Grenville, Quilleute Needles, and Carroll, 

Jagged and Tatoosh Islands) and large scale (entire outer coast of Washington) at-sea 

surveys of the outer coast of Washington document the distribution and abundance of 

murres in this area. Further, the relationship between these distribution and abundance 

patterns in relation to other physical parameters (sea surface temperature, water salinity, 

distance from shore, water depth) may help indicate whether murre attendance and 

reproduction on the Copalis Rocks is limited by physical factors or oceanographic 

conditions. 

In 1998, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service hired a Module Lead who convened a 

“Population Team” to address population monitoring needs of the at-sea distribution and 

abundance of seabirds. Team members are as follows: 

Naomi Bentivoglio, Module Lead, US Fish and Wildlife Service 

Tim Max, Statistician, US Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station 

Jim Baldwin, Statistician, US Forest Service, Pacific Southwest Research Station 

Ken Ostrom, GIS/Database Specialist, US Fish and Wildlife Service 

Martin Raphael, Researcher, US Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research 

Station 

Chris Thompson, Researcher, Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife 

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TMTC COPALIS FINAL REPORT – DRAFT 7/15/04 

Craig Strong, Researcher, Crescent Coastal Research 

C.J. Ralph, Researcher, US Forest Service, Pacific Southwest Research Station 

Sherri Miller, Researcher, US Forest Service, Pacific Southwest Research Station 

Population Monitoring

At this point in our understanding of seabird biology, there is general consensus that 

populations of some seabirds are best assessed at sea. Funded by non-Tenyo Maru

monies, members of the population team identified the target population as those birds in 

the near shore waters from the Canadian border to San Francisco Bay which is the area 

associated with the Northwest Forest Plan. We then subdivided the target population into 

the Conservation Zones identified in the Marbled Murrelet Recovery Plan (USFWS

1997). Certain methodological tests were conducted during the 1999 field season and the 

team reached consensus on the methods and sampling design for a pilot project in the 

2000 field season (Bentivoglio et al. 2002). 

Sampling Design 

For the purposes of Phase 1 of this study, we were concerned only with Zone 2, the outer 

coast of Washington (Table 4). Within this area, we generally targeted the ‘near shore’ 

waters 8 km or less from shore. The inshore boundary close to land was defined by a 

distance safe for navigation away from the surf, rocks, or kelp. This distance from shore 

was roughly estimated for each zone and strata within zones. The offshore boundary 

varied from 5 to 8 km off shore (Table 4). Mid-May through mid-July is the time of year 

when murres on the water are most likely to represent locally breeding murres and not 

immigrants from Oregon or elsewhere. Sampling for the purposes of monitoring the 

population occurred during this time frame. 

The outer coast of Washington (Zone 2) was divided into three geographic strata. Some

level of sampling occurred within each geographic stratum. Lower density strata 

received less sampling effort. We defined a PSU as a roughly rectangular area about 20 

km of coast line in length. The width of the PSU is the distance between the inshore and 

offshore boundaries. The width varies in different areas by zone and stratum. The PSUs 

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TMTC COPALIS FINAL REPORT – DRAFT 7/15/04 

are configured to meet end to end without any gaps along shore. Each PSU represents a 

cluster consisting of two subunits, the inshore and the offshore (divided by the ‘center 

line’; Table 4). 

The inshore boundary adjacent to the coast was influenced by the physical features of the 

shore line that affect navigation. In some instances, these physical features are 

permanent obstructions such as submerged rocks or islands. In other cases, these features 

are less permanent such as kelp beds which shrink or expand depending on various 

physical and biological factors, e.g., storms, time of year, and or sea otter activities. 

Tidal fluctuations also affect navigation. Some areas that can be surveyed during high 

tides may be inaccessible during low tides. 

We temporally defined a PSU as approximately one half of a day’s effort to avoid 

splitting a primary sampling unit over two days. In many areas the afternoon winds 

increase in intensity which makes it impossible to continue survey efforts. However, in 

some areas it was possible to complete more than one PSU in a day. PSUs were selected 

randomly without replacement and spread over the field season (time). On the north coast 

(Zone 1), PSUs were sampled twice during the field season. On the south coast (Zones 2), 

including Grays Harbor, Willapa Bay and the Columbia River estuary (Zone 3), PSUs 

were sampled only once. Over the long term, the PSUs that were selected during the 

pilot year will form the basis of the monitoring program. The same randomly selected 

PSUs will be sampled year after year to reduce variance in the annual population estimate 

each year. Parallel and zigzag transects were used to subsample the PSUs. Parallel 

transects were used in the inshore subunit and zigzag transects were used in the offshore 

subunit. 

Within the inshore subunit, the entire length (~20km) of the PSU was divided into four 5-

km transects (or rows) and divided into four bins parallel to shore. One transect was 

randomly placed within each bin (without replacement) ensuring that transects were 

spread out spatially from shore. These distances were chosen in 100 meter increments. 

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TMTC COPALIS FINAL REPORT – DRAFT 7/15/04 

Within the offshore subunit, a zigzag transect traversed the entire width of the subunit 

(distance from shore) and a portion of the length of the PSU; in some cases the entire 

length of the PSU. The transect trajectory was determined from a random selection point. 

The length of the zigzag transect in each area was roughly calculated from a formula 

based on strata area and murrelet densities (from previous data) as follows: Each PSU 

consists of two subunits labeled inshore and offshore with areas (in km2

) a1 and a2, 

respectively. We assumed that the number of birds observed in each collection of subunit 

transects followed a Poisson distribution with mean densities λ1 and λ 2 (in birds per 

km2

). Therefore, the optimal ratio of near-shore to far-shore transect length is given by: 

 

2

1

2

1

λ

λ = ⋅ a

a

r

which is simply the product of the area ratio and the square-root of the density ratio. 

Grid Transects 

The abundance and distribution of common murres was measured along transects 

confined within a 5-km by 5-km rectangular area centered on each of the five sites 

(interrupted by land features, where present). Each rectangular area was divided into five 

adjacent 1-km by 5-km segments oriented in a east-west direction. Within each of these 

segments, a 200-meter by 5-km strip transect (100 meters on each side of vessel) was 

conducted, for a total of five transects within each rectangular area. The north-south 

starting point of each transect will be positioned randomly between 100 and 900 meters 

from the northern edge of each segment, thereby insuring that all points within the entire 

5-km by 5-km area has an equal probability of being surveyed (except those points that 

are on-land). At each of the five localities a morning and afternoon set of surveys was 

conducted four times throughout the Common Murre nesting season (i.e., four replicate 

surveys conducted both in the morning and afternoon, for a total of eight surveys at each 

locality and 40 surveys overall; Appendix D). These methods are similar to those 

conducted by Drs. Julia Parrish and Chris Thompson as part a Tenyo Maru-funded pilot 

project (Thompson 1999). 

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TMTC COPALIS FINAL REPORT – DRAFT 7/15/04 

Two observers surveyed 90° arcs on either side of the boat starting from the bow. 

Observers scanned continually, slowing their pace a little at the bow of the boat and 

speeding up a little abeam of the boat. A complete scan of 90° takes about 5-7 seconds. 

Binoculars were used for species verification but not for sighting birds. Observers relayed 

data via headsets to a person in the boat cabin who entered data directly onto a computer. 

Description of Survey Area (Outer Coast of Washington)

The outer coast of Washington was divided into 3 strata. Stratum 1 (“north coast”) 

ranges from the northwest tip of Washington south to the mouth of Grays Harbor. This 

stratum is characterized by a rocky shoreline and ocean floor, and fairly steep increase in 

water depth with increasing distance from shore. Stratum 2 (“south coast”) ranges from 

the mouth of Grays Harbor south to the mouth of the Columbia River. This stratum is 

characterized by a sandy shoreline and ocean floor, and relatively shallow increase in 

water depth with increasing distance from shore. Stratum 3 (“rivers/bays”) includes 

Grays Harbor, Willapa Bay and the Columbia River. 

Temporally distributed across the season from 15 May through 31 July, we sampled 25 

PSUs: two replicates of all 8 PSUs in stratum 1 (north coast), one replicate of each of the 

six PSUs in stratum 2 (south coast), and one replicate of each of the three PSUs in 

stratum 3 (Appendix D). 

We selected an average inshore boundary of 350 meters from shore. Although we can 

survey this close to shore in many places, there are many locations along the coast in 

which kelp, rocks, and/or surf extend to further distances from shore than 350 meters, 

thereby requiring that we extend our inshore boundary to a greater distance. The location 

of rocks is permanent, of course. In contrast, however, kelp abundance and distribution 

varies from year to year depending on many climatic and weather in the preceding year. 

Within years, abundance and distribution of kelp depends on the time of year (less kelp in 

May than in July) and tide (less kelp at high tide relative to low tide). 

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TMTC COPALIS FINAL REPORT – DRAFT 7/15/04 

Previous empirical at-sea survey data from strata 1 and 2 indicate that the large majority 

of murres occur between the coast line and 5000 and 8000 meters from shore along the 

outer coast of Washington; thus, we chose these distances as the outer boundaries for 

these zones (Thompson 1997, 1999, unpubl. data) 

Previous empirical at-sea survey data indicate that, along the outer coast of Washington, 

more murres occur within 1500 meters from shore than further off shore. Thus, 1500 

meters was chosen as the center line boundary between the inner and outer subunits of 

PSUs. 

As explained above, in the offshore subunit, a “zig-zag” transect traversed the entire 

width and most or all of the length of each PSU. The length of of each transect to be 

surveyed was calculated from a formula based on stratum area and murre densities. In 

stratum 2, our offshore boundary was 8000 meters. Therefore, the areas of the offshore 

subunits of the PSUs in Zone 2 were rather large. In turn, the calculated transect length 

to survey in the outer subunit was longer, i.e., about 70 km. In addition to sampling the 

nearshore subunit, we often could not also survey the offshore subunit of the same PSU 

within a half day or so as required by our temporal definition of a PSU (see above). As a 

result, we reduced the transect length in our offshore subunits to between 20 and 30 km 

in most cases. 

Some nearshore areas of the outer coast of Washington are not accessible because of

kelp, rocks, islands or shallow water resulting in breaking waves. Specifically, on the 

north coast there are many islands, rocks, and kelp beds that occur within 1500 meters of 

shore that preclude surveying in proximity to these hazards. In the south coast, the 

mouths of Grays Harbor, Willapa Bay, and the Columbia River often have extremely 

treacherous boating conditions requiring that we survey at considerable distances 

offshore from their mouths. These distances vary considerably depending on tidal and 

weather conditions. 

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TMTC COPALIS FINAL REPORT – DRAFT 7/15/04 

To collect data during at-sea surveys, Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife 

(WDFW) uses a software program called DLOG (for datalog, developed by R.G. Ford

Consulting, Portland, OR.) loaded onto a laptop computer. DLOG interfaces with a GPS, 

and GIS overlays of the Washington shoreline and adjacent bathymetry, and uses these to 

record GPS coordinates, perpendicular distance to shore, and water depth at operatordefined time intervals (e.g. every 30 seconds). Transect survey length is calculated from 

the GPS trackline recorded in DLOG. Other data such as weather and sea conditions, 

on/off effort, and names of observers are also recorded manually in DLOG. One of our 

survey crew manually entered bird observation data (species, number, and behavior 

[flying, on water, diving, etc.] in real time into the laptop as relayed from both the port 

and starboard observers through audio-headphones. In summer 2000, 2001, and 2002 all 

murres observed within a strip of 100 meters on either side of the boat (trackline) were 

recorded. Since 1995, WDFW has used many boats to conduct at-sea surveys for 

murrelets. Boats have varied from 26 to 56 feet in length, inboard to outboard, and single 

to twin engine. In 2000, we used two vessels, a twin-outboard 26' WDFW vessel, 

Harlequin, and a 36' twin inboard commercial fishing vessel, Seasport. In 2001 and 

2002, we used a twin-outboard 26' WDFW vessel, Research 4.

All observers had extensive at-sea seabird survey experience prior to 2000, 2001, and 

2002. Despite this, we spent a week training observers in seabird species identification 

and use of our software program (DLOG) that we used for real-time data collection. 

Aerial Surveys 

Aerial helicopter surveys for murres and cormorants nesting on Refuge islands have been 

conducted annually during the breeding season since 1979, by Ulrich Wilson (Wilson 

1991, Wilson unpub. data). Since 1995, up to four surveys per annum have been made. 

Since 1979, photographs of nesting colonies have been made (Carter et al. 2001). Except 

for 1994-1996, Tatoosh – located outside the Refuge – has not been surveyed. During 

the two years of this study, aerial surveys and photographs were made. These results and 

the specific methods used are reported under separate cover. However, aggregate data 

(over the entire Refuge) as well as data specific to the Point Grenville area are presented. 

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TMTC COPALIS FINAL REPORT – DRAFT 7/15/04 

These data come from previous published work and unpublished reports to the Tenyo 

Maru Trustees Council. It should be noted here that any analyses and conclusions drawn 

from these data do not necessarily reflect the opinion of the Refuge biologist, but rather 

of the authors of this report. Aerial survey data collected specifically under the auspices 

of this study, as well as analyses and conclusions of the Refuge biologist are reported 

under separate cover. 

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION 

We present an integrated Results and Discussion section, so that summary interpretation 

can be presented at the conclusion of each minor section, where appropriate. The entire 

section is divided into two overall sections: logistical feasibility and biological feasibility. 

The former simply deals with whether it is physically possible to place decoys on the 

Point Grenville colonies, and secondarily what types of restrictions any Phase II activity 

would have to adhere to, as the proposed site is within a National Wildlife Refuge. The 

latter details the data collected over the last two years which inform our interpretation 

about the stability of the Point Grenville colonies, the likely sources of disturbance or 

impact to those colonies, and the degree to which the Washington colonies interact. 

Logistical Feasibility

A significant aspect of any restoration project is an analysis of whether it is possible, 

safe, and biologically responsible, to access colonies for the installation and retrieval of

decoys and sound systems (Appendix B). To assess logistic feasibility, we took the 

following steps: 

• Assessment of water and wave conditions in the immediate vicinity of the colonies 

(observation – Year 1) 

• Conversations with decoy installation experts on methods they most preferred and 

most likely to succeed at Point Grenville (Years 1 and 2) 

• Site visit to the colonies to attempt landings and climbing of all four colonies (early 

Year 2). 

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TMTC COPALIS FINAL REPORT – DRAFT 7/15/04 

A detailed summary of these activities is provided in Appendix B, and much of this 

information has been submitted in previous reports. 

In brief, we conclude that deploying decoys would be possible on Grenville Arch, Erin, 

and Grenville Pillar, but not on Erin’s Bride. Most of Grenville Arch can be safely 

climbed when very calm ocean conditions allow boat access. The flat surfaces of Erin can 

be safely climbed; accessing cliff faces would require setting appropriate rope systems 

from which to descend to nesting ledges. The flat surfaces at the top of Grenville Pillar 

look to be accessible with appropriate rope systems to enable ascent. Erin’s Bride was 

ruled out due to the steep cliffs on all sides and little flat surface area at the top. 

Wilderness Constraints 

Because the proposed restoration sites are in a National Wildlife Refuge with a 

Wilderness designation, there are additional constraints on the types of activities which 

can be conducted, and materials which can be used, for restoration, or any other proposed 

work on the Point Grenville. Boat access to the islands is permitted, but helicopter 

access, including dropping sling-loads of gear, is not. Climbing is permitted; however, 

installation of permanent anchors or bolts is not. These restrictions limit our ability to 

safely access Grenville Pillar, as the climbing report (Appendix B) clearly indicates the 

need for installation of a bolted safety line if Grenville Pillar is accessed from below. 

Thus, restoration on Grenville Pillar is not possible. 

Additional constraints are relevant to the installation of decoys and other restoration 

equipment. Decoy installation is permitted, with the caveat that the installation technique 

would have to be temporary and removable (e.g., cementing decoys into place would not 

be permitted). We believe that this restriction would not compromise the installation of

decoys. However, sound playback systems, routinely used to attract potential breeders to 

a decoy site, would not be permitted. This restriction may slow the pace of social 

attraction, although pilot experiments on Tatoosh indicated that decoys are attractive 

without sound (Appendix A). Since the Point Grenville complex already has a recruited 

population, we feel that this limitation would not compromise a restoration project. 

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TMTC COPALIS FINAL REPORT – DRAFT 7/15/04 

Finally, all man-made materials would have to be removed at the conclusion of the work, 

leaving the site in pristine condition. 

In summary, logistical and wilderness constraints preclude the use of two of the four 

proposed sites: Erin’s Bride and Grenville Pillar. Erin and Grenville Arch are possible 

sites. One additional caveat to this conclusion - because Grenville Arch is the most 

distant of the four colonies, accurate viewing and detailed recording of reproductive 

effort and chick diet is not possible from the mainland. Thus, some type of camera 

system would have to be installed to monitor any restoration project. Such systems 

(timelapse movie cameras driven by solar-powered batteries) have been used on the 

Barren Islands in the Alaska Maritime National Wildlife Refuge to monitor common 

murre reproductive phenology and success. Thus, we believe this avenue is also open to 

us at Point Grenville. 

Biological Feasibility

This section, much longer than the former, reports on the demographic and source of 

potential impact data collected over the two years of the study, as supplemented by 

additional data from outside of the study (e.g., comparative data from Yaquina Head) as 

well as that collected prior to the study (e.g., Refuge annual surveys, prior work on 

Tatoosh). 

Murre Population Estimates 

U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Washington Outer Coast Refuge personnel have 

conducted multiple aerial censuses annually of the number of murres attending outer 

coast colonies. These data, reported in Wilson (1991) and subsequent reports, indicate 

that the number of murres nesting in Washington dropped dramatically in the early 1980s 

(Figure 3). At the same time, murre numbers on Tatoosh Island appeared to rise (Figure 

4), although systematic annual counts were not available for this colony until 1991. 

Parrish et al. (2001) have speculated that this population must have been supplemented 

by substantial immigration during the 1980s, as apparent population growth (lambda = 

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TMTC COPALIS FINAL REPORT – DRAFT 7/15/04 

1.289, or almost 30% annual population growth) was not possible in a closed system. On 

the Point Grenville colonies, attendance estimates echoed the pattern apparent in the 

Refuge (Figure 5) – a steep decline in the early 1980s followed by no substantial 

recovery. Thus, at the point in time of the Tenyo Maru spill, the majority of colonies 

within the Refuge housed relatively low numbers of murres (versus 1979-1980 counts) 

whereas the Tatoosh population was in an expansion phase. 

Post-spill - during the 1990s - murre numbers in the Refuge appeared to stay low, despite 

a brief resurgence during the late 1990s (Figure 3). At the same time, murre numbers on 

Tatoosh Island were dropping at approximately 3% annually (Figure 4; Parrish et al. 

2001). At the Point Grenville colonies, the continued depression apparent in the 1990s 

was actually due principally to numbers at Grenville Arch. Murres recruiting to Erin, 

Erin’s Bride, and Grenville Pillar actually increased to a peak in 1998 which, while still 

substantially lower than 1979-1980 numbers, could possibly be indicative of a recovery 

(Figure 6). However, a more in-depth analysis of these data indicate that whereas 

annualized numbers appeared to increase, within-year variation was quite high. Due in 

part to necessarily low sample sizes (as repeated helicopter counts are simply not 

possible) and in part to the range between counts, pairwise t-tests with appropriate 

correction for experiment-wise error (reducing significance level to p = 0.003) shows that 

there is actually no difference among values reported from the 1990s (with the exception 

of 1995 versus 1998, p=0.002). One interpretation of these results is that there is no 

recovery and that the apparent variability in intra-annual counts indicates instability 

within these colonies. A competing interpretation is that the first counts of the season 

were made before the murres settled for the season, and thus are less reliable. If only 

peak counts are used, numbers do appear higher, although (obviously) actual variability 

measures are lost. 

The time series of population size estimates collected during this study are too short to 

provide insight into whether these populations are recovering or not. However, they can 

be placed in the context of the earlier numbers, and – more importantly – they can 

provide insight into intra-annual patterns of variability, itself a potential measure of 

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colony stability. There are two lines of evidence: ground-based counts and at-sea 

estimates. Ground-based counts are extremely restricted, both by the inherent logistics in 

making these counts, but also by the fact that a majority of murres attending the Point 

Grenville colonies are either non-breeders, or nest in locations not visible from land 

(Zador, pers. obs.). Nevertheless, counts of plots visible from land on all four colonies 

show relatively high variability both within and between years (Table 5). High sample 

size, and a restricted sample (to only those counts made during the egg and chick period, 

only those counts made during good visibility, and only those counts made before 

abandonment) contribute to apparently low variance (standard error at 8-15% of the 

mean); however, it is instructive to compare mean to maximum counts (as in the aerial 

survey data). Maximum counts are 1.5 to 5 times mean counts. Thus, either these plots 

have a substantial number of non-breeders which obscure patterns in the breeding 

population, or the breeding population is unstable and likely to abandon. In either case, 

the data point to instability. 

Comparison with similar counts taken at Tatoosh further this interpretation. At 

subcolonies on Tatoosh counted throughout the season, where the murres are nesting in 

similar habitat (rocky ledges or crevices in cliff-face), mean and maximum counts are 

usually within 10% and standard errors are usually less than 5% of the mean, except in 

cases of very low sample size (Table 6). It should be noted that this pattern occurred 

during a period when the entire colony appears to be stable (e.g., Figure 4), although 

these latter island-wide estimates are unbounded. 

In sum, aerial and ground-based data appears to indicate that the Point Grenville colonies 

are unstable in annual as well as intra-annual attendance, relative to the Tatoosh Island 

colony. This relatively high variance makes any determination of pattern within the 

attendance data problematic, given necessarily low sample sizes of the whole colony 

counts (i.e., aerial surveys). 

At-sea data provide a complimentary picture of instability in the Refuge colonies. Here, 

stability refers to three states along a continuum: (1) colonies with stable attendance over 

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the season and active breeding, (2) colonies with unstable attendance over the season and 

indications of breeding, and (3) colonies with unstable attendance over the season and no 

indications of breeding. We conducted grid transects (approximately 5 km by 5 km, see 

methods for more details) around four historic and/or current murre breeding colonies on 

the outer coast of Washington (Tatoosh Island, Carroll and Jagged Islands, Quilleute 

Needles, and Point Grenville). Four replicates were conducted at each site (1) in 2001 

and 2002, and (2) in the morning and in the afternoon. Using Tatoosh as a reference 

colony, and assuming that despite the steady decline in population size experienced 

through the mid1990s that this colony is essentially stable, we compared patterns of 

rafting attendance in the vicinity of several colonies. To test for potential differences in 

murre distribution around each of these sites in relation to time of day and year, we 

conducted a two-way ANCOVA for each site using year and time of day as factors, and 

distance from each colony as a covariate. Because we conducted four ANCOVAs, we 

reduced our significance level of P ≤ 0.05 to an experiment-wise level of P ≤ 0.0127 

using the Dunn-Sidak correction (Sokal and Rohlf 1995). Year was not a significant 

influence on the patterns within colonies (df = 1, F ≤ 1.495, P ≥ 0.229). Time of day also 

was not a significant factor (df = 1, F ≤ 2.809, P ≥ 0.009) except at Tatoosh Island where 

murre densities in the morning than in the afternoon (Figure 7; df = 1, F = 9.08, P = 

0.003). However, the spatial pattern was different among colonies. Last, murre density 

decreased with distance from Tatoosh, the Quilleute Needles (centered on Huntington 

Island), and Carroll and Jagged Islands (df = 1, F ≥ 11.797, P < 0.001), but not from the 

Point Grenville (Figure 7; df = 1, F = 0.001, P = 0.981). 

The pattern displayed at Tatoosh, of a peak in numbers close to the island followed by a 

steep decline – essentially a halo – was also apparent in earlier studies (Thompson 1999, 

Parrish et al. 1998), and can be interpreted as a further indication of a stable 

reproductively active colony. The halo is composed of rafting birds – most probably 

breeders (Burger 1997) – which consistently occur during the pre-breeding and breeding 

season. 

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Two of the three Refuge colonies display a similar pattern to Tatoosh – Quilleute 

Needles, and Carroll and Jagged Islands whereas the Point Grenville colonies have a 

fairly uniform coverage of murres across a wide area. One potential interpretation of this 

pattern is that rafting murres are associating with individual colonies (e.g., Erin versus 

Grenville Pillar, etc.) such that at-sea counts incorporate several rafts resulting in a 

uniform distribution. However, the total distance between the colonies is much smaller 

than 4km, making this hypothesis only partially explanatory. A second potential 

explanation is that murres which have abandoned for the season, or who returned to the 

area but never settled, may remain in the general area for the season, not faithful to any 

one colony. Over the four kilometers surveyed, an even distribution of approximately 25 

murres/km2

 is over 1250 birds, or half again as large as the peak Refuge aerial survey 

numbers in 2001 (925). At the very least, these data point to a potential difference 

between the colonies at Point Grenville and the Tatoosh murre colony. 

In addition to assessing population size in the immediate vicinity of known or suspected 

colonies, we also censused the broader outer coast region out to 8km. Earlier work has 

shown that the majority of murres on the water occur within this strip of coastal ocean

(Thompson 1997, 1999, Parrish et al. 1998). To obtain an index of murre numbers, we 

used the same sampling methods and data analyses that are used to estimate population 

size of marbled murrelets, Brachyramphus marmoratus, in the same geographic area each 

summer (Bentivoglio et al. 2002, Jodice et al. 2002). Over the two years of the study, 

estimated numbers were both high and constant – 72,840 in 2001 and 74,011 in 2002 

(Table 7). Statistically, these values are indistinguishable (two-sample t-test, df = 48, t = 

0.058, P > 0.9). An earlier coast-wide aerial survey in 1989 (Briggs et al. 1992) 

estimated 21,939 (raw counts x 1.67 after Takekawa et al. 1990) murres in late June. 

Although these data may be incomparable due to methodological differences (i.e., boat 

versus aerial surveys), they do point to either substantial increases in the number of

murres inhabiting the Washington coastal colonies, or to the potential for much additional 

recruit to Washington colonies. 

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Relative to total colony counts (a combination of aerial counts in the Refuge and groundbased counts on Tatoosh), these values are extremely high. Total on-colony numbers in 

2001 were only 7,800 (peak 2001 Refuge count + Tatoosh attendance in 2002; 2002 

Refuge numbers are unavailable). Even assuming a correction factor for foraging mates 

of 1.67 (Takekawa et al. 1990) to estimate breeding population, and an additional 

correction factor of approximately 2 to incorporate pre-breeders (assumes no skipping in 

the breeding population; Parrish et al. 2001), the total estimated Washington murre 

population would only be 26,000, only a third of the at-sea values. One interpretation of 

this discrepancy is that there is a substantial nascent breeding pool in Washington waters, 

which has either elected not to breed, or has failed at breeding. These birds might likely 

be the candidates for breeding population restoration via social attraction. It is also 

possible that a fraction of these at-sea birds are Oregon breeders which have moved north 

following the end of the breeding season. Thompson (1999) has shown that the Oregon 

“dad-chick wave” passes the Columbia River in early July, Point Grenville by 15 July, 

reaching Tatoosh around 1-7 August. Our surveys occurred before this time. 

In sum, the grid survey data appear to substantiate the pattern of instability at the Point 

Grenville colonies established by the aerial and ground-based work. At the same time, 

at-sea surveys indicate a substantial pool of murres – coastwide – available for restoration 

via social attraction. 

Reproductive Timing and Effort 

Timing of initial breeding events differed little between years at Point Grenville (Table 

8). However, the chick period in the CT subcolony on Grenville Pillar in 2002 was 

delayed 3 weeks due to egg loss from predation and the subsequent time it took the 

murres to replace those eggs. Chick hatching and fledging at the SP subcolony on 

Grenville Pillar was asynchronous in both years due to the loss and subsequent 

replacement of some of the eggs. At Tatoosh, breeding phenology was essentially 

identical to Point Grenville (Table 9). Thus, it is probably the case that the Washington 

murre colonies all breed on the same schedule. Oregon colonies, as assessed by Yaquina 

Head, breed substantially earlier (first eggs in the beginning of May; last fledge at the end 

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of July). One interpretation of this pattern is that breeding phenology may be set by 

oceanographic conditions, and that the Columbia River acts as a hydrologic barrier 

between successive coastal regions (Hickey 1998). 

Reproductive effort at the Point Grenville colonies – at least as assessed from groundbased locations – was low and variable. No murres nested on Grenville Arch in either 

year, with the exception of one isolated pair in a very small ledge (the NK subcolony) 

that raised a chick in 2002. Murres on Erin, Erin’s Bride, and Grenville Pillar did 

reproduce successfully in 2002; however, only pairs nesting on two subcolonies (SP and 

PC) on Grenville Pillar were successful and synchronous in 2001 (Table 10). 

A detailed accounting of the fate of chicks produced on Erin and Erin’s Bride (Table 11) 

indicates an extremely wide range in reproductive success (0 to 88% per subcolony). 

Across these two colonies, plot-based average success was only 53%, and pair-based 

success was 61%. These values, especially considering the general reproductive failure 

in 2001, are unusually low (Nur and Sydeman 1999) and are not enough to sustain the 

population (Parrish et al. 2001). 

By contrast, reproductive success on monitored subcolonies on Tatoosh was substantially 

higher (Table 12). In both years, average plot-based success was 80-81% and pair-based 

success was slightly lower at 73-79%. On this colony, islandwide reproductive success is 

estimated annually by assuming consistent habitat-based success (that is, crevices versus 

cliff-tops; with the exception of a single cliff-top subcolony, Pole Island, where success is 

independently monitored), and standardizing by habitat-based attendance (cliff-top versus 

crevice; Appendix E). Both 2001 and 2002 were relatively successful years (Table 12), 

especially in reference to earlier years in the mid-to-late 1990s (Parrish et al. 2001). 

In sum, reproductive success on the Point Grenville colonies is variable and low; too low 

to sustain the population were the system closed (i.e., no immigration). By contrast, the 

most recent Tatoosh reproductive success is much higher, and much less variable. 

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However, in the recent past, the Tatoosh colony has also experienced significantly 

degraded reproductive success (Parrish et al. 2001). 

Adult Foraging and Chick Diet 

At Point Grenville, fish observations were conducted on Grenville Pillar subcolonies, 

mostly at the SP subcolony, where incoming murres with fish can be seen briefly at an 

angle which allows fish identification. Fish carried by murres landing at CT or PC are 

rarely visible as incoming murres are facing away from the observers. On Tatoosh, chick 

diet was assessed at cliff-top subcolonies (MCT-EXT, PC). 

Smelt, likely surf smelt Hypomesus pretiosus comprised the biggest proportion of 

identified fish fed to chicks on Grenville Pillar subcolonies in both years, accounting for 

approximately half of all fish fed to chicks (Table 13). Pacific herring Clupea pallasii 

and salmon Oncorhynchus spp. accounted for an additional 40% of the diet in 2001. In 

2002, sandlance Ammodytes hexapterus was more prominent, accounting for nearly one 

third of the diet. In general, broad dietary patterns were similar between Point Grenville 

and Tatoosh foragers. Major prey species, defined as those accounting for 5% or greater 

of the total chick diet, were nearly identical – smelt (most likely surf smelt and eulachon 

Thaleichthys pacificus), Pacific herring, sandlance, and salmonids (based on body 

coloration and markings, most likely chinook salmon O.tshawytscha, coho salmon O. 

kisutch, or steelhead, Salmo gairdnerii). It is notable that adult murres breeding on 

Tatoosh brought back lanternfish (Myctophids) in significant numbers in both years, 

whereas this group of fish was absent from the Point Grenville diet. Myctophids are 

generally regarded as a deepwater fish, which vertically migrate to the surface at night 

(Paxton 1967, Frost and McCrone 1979, Watanabe et al. 1999). The presence of these 

fish in the Tatoosh diet may reflect unique oceanographic conditions in the area 

immediately surrounding this colony (Parrish and Zador in press). All major prey species, 

including myctophids, are high energy content fish (Figure 8) suggesting that at both 

colonies, adults have a range of high-quality prey choice. 

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There was an apparent difference in prey diversity between the Point Grenville colonies 

and Tatoosh, 5 (2001) and 6 (2002) prey species were returned by Point Grenville 

murres, whereas nearly three times that diversity were returned by Tatoosh foragers (16 

species – 2001; 14 species – 2002; Table 13). However, this comparison is somewhat

misleading. Due to low numbers of actively reproducing pairs visible on the Point 

Grenville colonies, total fish sample size in both years was over an order of magnitude 

smaller than the Tatoosh diet sample. Thus, rare prey species would be expected in lower 

numbers. Furthermore, observations at Point Grenville are conducted from mainland 

sites using spotting scopes, whereas on Tatoosh observations are made from blinds within 

2 m of all monitored pairs. Thus, prey identification is inherently easier at Tatoosh. For 

instance, on Tatoosh most smelt were identified to species, whereas at Point Grenville 

most smelt were lumped at the family level (Table 13). 

Chick feeding rates (fish per hour) were assessed using two datasets. First, for both 

years, hourly fishwatch data collected across a broad range of pairs within identified plots 

were used. These watches were planned to cover specific periods across the range of 

lighted hours over the entire chick-rearing period, to control for time of day and date 

effects. Data are not binned by pair, but instead by individual watch - that is, total fish 

returned to a plot with a known total of chicks. Data were then aggregated within time of 

day category, and finally across time of day categories. This dataset allows for 

interannual comparisons, and broad comparisons between colonies. The second dataset 

involves a much more detailed examination of individual pairs conducted in 2002. 

Chosen pairs were watched continuously for at least 8 hours, during single days in two 

phenological periods: mid-chick (median chick age 12 days) and late-chick (median 

chick age 17 days). The latter dataset allowed much more individualized comparisons 

across single days, but could not integrate across the season. In addition, the latter 

dataset included pairs followed at Yaquina Head, the Oregon colony. 

Fishwatch data suggest that there was little difference between years in the result of 

foraging efforts of adults at both Point Grenville and Tatoosh (Table 14). However, in 

both years, adults at Point Grenville returned slightly more often, such that the estimated 

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daily delivery rate at Point Grenville was more than a fish higher than at Tatoosh (5.8 

versus 4.5 fish/day in 2001, t = -2.39, df = 8, p = 0.04; 5.9 versus 3.8 fish/day in 2002, t

= -2.28, df = 8, p = 0.05; assuming 16 hours of foraging time per day). Of course, this 

difference does not necessarily translate into a poorer chick diet on Tatoosh, as both fish 

size and fish energy content play a role in determining relative chick diet. However, 

given the fact that major prey diversity was similar and predominated by high caloric 

content species (Table 13), these data certainly suggest that adults foraging in the Point 

Grenville area are not at a disadvantage. 

Pair-based fish watches show a slightly different inter-colony pattern (Table 15). Here, 

the range of foraging rates are much closer, with the exception of mid-chick at Yaquina, 

where daily delivery rate dropped to 1.7 fish/day. Although rates at Point Grenville were 

slightly lower than at Tatoosh, in contrast to the seasonally averaged fish watch data 

above, this difference only amounted to a maximum of half a fish difference over the day 

and was not significantly different from the other colonies (repeated measures ANOVA F 

= 0.223, df = 2,28, p = 0.801). In general, delivery rates were higher in the morning than 

in the afternoon (with the exception of Yaquina mid-chick). Rates were also fairly 

comparable across phenological time, again with the exception of Yaquina. If the midchick data at Yaquina is discounted, the general pattern displayed appears to be: (1) 

foraging rate peaks in the morning, when both chicks and adults are presumably most

hungry, having just spent the night without eating, (2) foraging rates are comparable 

across time, with the potential exception of Yaquina, where rates may have risen from

mid to late chick, and (3) foraging rates are fairly comparable among colonies, although 

Point Grenville appears slightly lower. 

Taken together, these data clearly indicate that parents foraging for their chicks at Point 

Grenville do not appear to be hampered relative to murres nesting either within the 

Washington coastal population (i.e., Tatoosh), or to the south in the much larger Oregon 

population. Thus, although the Point Grenville colonies appear unstable from an 

attendance and reproductive success point of view, pairs making it through to the chick 

stage have no trouble feeding their chick. 

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Potential Sources of Instability 

There are several sources of instability we considered during the course of this study. 

Most are too variable, and occasionally too infrequent, to merit a thorough investigation 

within a two year period. However, we used data from other colonies collected prior to 

this study, as well as data collected outside the strict bounds of this study, to supplement 

our results. We present potential sources of instability in three sections: oceanographic 

forcing, predator forcing, and other disturbance. It should be noted that we also did not 

address potential interactions between these sources, or between these sources and the 

Tenyo Maru oil spill, although these interactions certainly occurred. 

Oceanographic Forcing 

Two regional indices of climate impact known to be correlated with a range of biological 

response variables (Sydeman et al. 2001, Bograd et al. 2000, Parrish and Zador, in press) 

were used as surrogates for remote oceanographic effect: the multivariate ENSO index 

(MEI; Figure 9) and the Pacific decadal index (PDO; Figure 10). We assumed that 

should such forcing be present, it would most likely manifest itself through a change in 

coastal productivity, which would translate into a change in forage fish availability and 

perhaps species diversity. All of the above would then affect murre demography 

parameters, including chick production (which we measured as reproductive success) and 

possibly adult attendance (if environmental conditions reduced adult body condition 

below that needed to breed). Because we are only looking at two years of data, long-term

correlations usually needed for such a “bottom-up” finding were not available to us. 

Therefore, we rely on prior data collected within the Refuge and on Tatoosh to support 

our conclusions. Within the two year time frame, we also explicitly compared the 

response of Point Grenville murres versus Tatoosh murres to forcing factors at the 

regional level. 

The PDO switches from warm (predominantly positive values) to cool (predominantly 

negative values). These regime shifts signal a change in many physical parameters 

(Francis et al. 1998), and generally have the result of flipping the relative coastal 

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productivity between the California Coastal Current and the Alaska Current systems 

(Hare et al. 1999). In the lower 48, warm phase PDO (1977-1997) is relatively worse 

(McGowan et al. 1998). The MEI spikes positive during El Niño events, which are 

generally associated with a lessening of coastal upwelling. Particularly strong events 

occurred in 1983, 1987, and 1998, and a weaker but more sustained event occurred from 

1992 through 1994. Thus, if the murre populations were responding to oceanographic 

forcing, we might expect declines in attendance and/or reproductive success during the 

PDO warm phase, on or after a particularly strong MEI signal. 

Murre population estimates from Tatoosh (i.e., Figure 4) and peak numbers from the 

Refuge (i.e., Figure 3) show little concordance with oceanographic conditions as 

expressed in the MEI and PDO indices (PDO - Pearson correlation coefficient (R) =-

0.004, p=0.98, N=23; MEI - R=-0.028, p=0.90, N=23), with the exception of the dramatic 

decline in attendance in the Refuge in 1983 (Figure 11; Figure 12). Murre attendance in 

the Refuge did decline following the ENSOs of 1987 and 1998. The signal during 1992-

1994 is more confusing. Within the Point Grenville colonies, any obvious concordance 

between PDO, MEI, and attendance is even less clear (Figure 5; Figure 6). It is possible

that after the steep decline experienced in the early 1980s, attendance on these colonies 

has remained so low that further drops corresponding with oceanographic conditions are 

difficult to discern. Scatterplots of the data clearly indicate two groups of points, those 

prior to 1983 which are correlated with PDO, and those following, which are not (Figure 

12). 

On Tatoosh, data were not routinely collected until 1991. The ENSO of 1998 is 

associated with the nadir in attendance; however the prolonged event from 1992 to 1994 

produced no discernable effect. Furthermore, although the decline through the 1990s is 

in the PDO cool phase, so is the dramatic increase which must have happened throughout 

the 1980s. There is some indication that the most recent change in the PDO, in 1998, is 

correlated with a stabilization followed by an increase in attendance; however, this 

association is weak and several more years of data will be needed to confirm or refute 

this correlation (PDO - R=-0.302, p=0.09, N=11; MEI - R=-0.532, p=0.09, N=11). 

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Earlier work on possible regional scale oceanographic forcing on murre colonies in the 

Pacific Northwest (Parrish and Zador in press) indicated that the Tatoosh population 

experiences relatively little regional forcing, whereas the much larger colony at Yaquina 

Head is significantly forced by regional measures. This is expressed both in attendance 

and in measures of reproduction. 

In sum, we believe that oceanographic forcing has affected Pacific Northwest murre 

populations, particularly in places – and times – when the local populations were/are 

quite large, as was the case in the Refuge in the late 1970s and early 1980s, and is the 

case currently in Oregon. Parrish and Zador (in press) argue that colonies closer to 

carrying capacity (K) may be more sensitive to oceanographic forcing, as even small 

changes in coastal productivity may translate into a re-thresholding of K below current 

population size. At present, the Point Grenville colonies are substantially below their 

historic values, thus they are unlikely to be affected by oceanographic forcing. 

Further evidence to bolster this hypothesis comes from the amount of time monitored 

pairs spent together on-colony during the chick-rearing period. In colonies which are 

food-stressed, brooding murres spend a minimum amount of time together on the colony 

(Zador and Piatt 1999) – just enough to maintain pair bonds. The majority of time is 

spent in foraging. As food conditions become richer, time paired on the colony increases 

(Zador and Piatt 1999), presumably because the time needed to find food decreases. We 

hypothesized that if the Point Grenville colonies were food-stressed (oceanographically 

forced), parents would spend significantly less time paired during our 8 hour watches. In 

fact, the mean number of minutes both parents attended nest sites did not vary by colony 

(repeated measures ANOVA F = 0.193, df = 2,28, p = 0.825; Figure 13). 

Finally, our chick diet and adult foraging rate data clearly show that the Point Grenville 

colonies are not suffering relative to Tatoosh, or to Yaquina. In sum, there is no evidence 

that the Point Grenville colonies are currently forced by oceanographic conditions 

limiting prey base or otherwise affecting demographic parameters. 

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Predators 

Avian predators, principally bald eagles, have had a significant effect on the 

demographics of the Tatoosh murre population (Parrish 1995, Parrish et al. 2001), and 

were considered here as a potential source of instability. Because detailed demographic 

and predator-prey data were not available for the Point Grenville population prior to this 

study, it is difficult to discern the degree to which eagles may have played a role in the 

past. However, eagle presence on the outer Olympic Peninsula has been steadily 

increasing (Figure 14). 

Within the two years of this study, we witnessed only a single eagle attack at Point 

Grenville resulting in a murre being killed in 2001. However, witnessed predator kills 

are rare in this system, because observers are distant to the site (compare to blinds on 

Tatoosh), a significant fraction of the murres nest on the west side of the colonies out of 

sight of observers, and – unlike Tatoosh – we do not have the opportunity to inspect 

carcasses left by eagles. 

Despite the paucity of kills, we believe eagles to be a major influence on the Point 

Grenville murres for several reasons. Eagle fly-bys routinely caused murres to get 

agitated, and in some cases flush. Eagles occasionally roosted on Grenville Arch itself. 

In 2002, we witnessed nine eagles at one time on Grenville Arch, one attempting to eat a 

murre egg. Eagle activity early in the 2002 nesting season had a dramatic impact on the 

first murre eggs laid at Grenville Arch and Grenville Pillar. We believe that all of the first 

eggs laid on these rocks were lost due to eagle-induced gull predation. All measures of 

eagle activity were higher in 2002, including maximum number of eagles seen per day 

before and after July 20 (the approximate date of eaglet fledging in coastal Washington; 

Parrish et al. 2001), and maximum number of eagles per trip (Table 16). In both years, 

the numbers of eagles seen per day was three times higher before July 20th than after. 

Although eagle activity declined later in the season, we believe that the cycle of 

disturbance and abandonment had already begun. In 2002, replacement eggs were laid 

and lost at PC and SP (Table 10). Some replacement eggs at SP produced chicks. All 

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chicks at CT were produced from replacement eggs. Finally, the colonies at Point 

Grenville offer little secure habitat from eagles. The majority of space available for 

expansion of these colonies is on the top of unvegetated or grassy islets (Appendix C). 

Ledges and crevices in the vertical cliff walls are limited. Thus, when eagles attack, they 

are likely to provoke evacuation. Over the long term, increasing predator pressure is also 

likely to prevent recruitment to these exposed upper areas. 

Over the past decade, eagle pressure, defined by both the count of eagles on the colony

and the relative activity of those eagles, has fluctuated (Figure 15). What is interesting to 

note is while eagle numbers have been fairly constant, even slightly increasing, eagle 

activity has not followed this pattern (maximum eagles versus eagle flybys; Pearson 

correlation, R=0.261, p=0.439). Eagle activity, defined as average flights past our 

observation point per hour before 20 July, peaked in 1999 and 2000, but has since 

dropped off significantly. When these measures of eagle pressure are regressed against 

islandwide reproductive success, only eagle flybys are a significant predictor of murre 

chick fledging, albeit barely (T=-2.23, p=0.05, N=11, R2

=0.284; Figure 16). 

On Tatoosh, eagle visitation rates were higher than at Point Grenville (Table 16). 

However, the effect of their visitation appears to be lower – at least as assessed by 

reproductive success (Table 12). We believe there are several reasons for this. First, 

eagle activity over the past two years is actually lower than in most of the previous years 

(Figure 15). Second, murres nesting in particularly vulnerable habitats have either 

vacated that habitat (Parrish 1995, Parrish and Paine 1996, Parrish et al. 2001) or have 

altered their response to eagle attack (Parrish unpub. data). Cliff-top nesting murres 

which used to evacuate to the water during an eagle attack now retreat into the 

salmonberry cover. This “new” strategy on the part of the prey has significantly reduced 

the chance of successful eagle attack, as salmonberry density prevents eagle entry. 

Finally, in 2002, a pair of adult eagles conducted courtship activities around Tatoosh 

daily, including chasing other eagles, including juveniles, from the main island. As a 

result, eagle activity dropped substantially. 

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In sum, we believe that eagle effects can be a significant force affecting murre population 

stability in the Pacific Northwest. At Point Grenville, although actual kills witnessed are 

low, we suspect eagles are the main predator responsible for the loss of early eggs, and 

the abandonment of nesting subcolonies in 2001. Thus, unless eagle numbers can be 

controlled, or safe habitat can be constructed, eagles will likely continue to play a major 

role in shaping the Point Grenville colonies. 

Other Disturbance 

Pelicans 

In 2001, we infrequently observed 1-9 brown pelicans flying past or roosting on 

Grenville Arch. Most observations were during the month of August. However, in 2002, 

we observed brown pelicans throughout the field season (Figure 17). Pelicans were 

occasionally present from mid-June to mid-July, but were consistently present from midJuly through early September. Peak numbers were recorded from mid-July to late 

August, with a maximum count of 938 on August 18. In addition, the pelicans appeared 

to displace murres from the top of Erin beginning July 24. No murres were seen in the 

DC subcolony at the top of Erin after the pelicans appeared. A similar pattern occurred at 

Grenville Arch at the TR subcolony. Pelicans began to occupy the area in early August, 

after this time we did not see murres in the TR area until the pelican numbers dropped in 

late August. Pelicans began to occupy the lower reaches of subcolony B on Erin’s Bride 

in late July. By July 23 murres remained absent from this area. We have never observed 

pelicans landing on Tatoosh, although we have recorded them flying by in flocks of 2-30 

since 1995. 

Planes 

At Point Grenville, we noted little disturbance from airplanes and helicopters during our 

observations. We observed some head-bobbing of murres when planes were in the area, 

but could not attribute the cause of the behavior to the airplanes or to gull alarm calls. In 

one instance in 2001, an airplane flew <100 meters above Grenville Pillar. Half of the 

murres in the PC colony head-bobbed, but neither the murres, gulls, nor cormorants 

42
TMTC COPALIS FINAL REPORT – DRAFT 7/15/04 

flushed. Similarly, no response to planes or helicopters was observed which directly 

affected breeding success of murres at Tatoosh in either year. 

Summary of Biological Feasibility 

Two years of ground-based data collection on the demographics of, and potential sources 

of impact to, the Point Grenville common murre colonies, with reference data from

Tatoosh and secondarily from Yaquina Head, and supplemented by aerial and at-sea 

survey work, have lead us to believe that the Point Grenville colonies are currently 

instable. This instability is manifest in attendance and in reproductive success, and is 

aggravated to the degree where the population – were it closed – could not sustain itself. 

We believe the most likely source of the initial decline was abrupt changes in ocean 

conditions during the 1983 ENSO, which may have affected adult body condition, 

elevated adult mortality, and seriously depressed breeding in that year. We feel that it is

highly likely that murres nesting in the Refuge at that time were not all killed, but more 

likely the population experienced a combination of increased instantaneous annual 

mortality and a major reshuffling of breeders among colonies. It is at this point that the 

Tatoosh colony dramatically increased in size, most likely as a result of this withinWashington migration. When combined with the similarity in breeding phenology, and 

the similarity in morphology (Warheit 1996), these data all suggest that the Washington 

colonies may act as a metapopulation, where individual colonies become sources – or 

sinks – depending on local circumstances. Finally, we suggest that the current conditions 

preventing self-induced restoration at the Point Grenville colonies is most likely eagle 

activity – including both predation and disturbance. Because eagle numbers appear to be 

increasing, this source of disturbance is not likely to fade, unless mitigated or actively 

controlled. In part, this is because the opportunities for shelter on the Point Grenville 

colonies are extremely limited. 

CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 

The overall purpose of this project “is to restore Common Murre colonies, using social 

attraction techniques, to locations in the Copalis NWR” (TMOSNRT 2000). The 

43
TMTC COPALIS FINAL REPORT – DRAFT 7/15/04 

workplan for Phase I of this project stated two general objectives: (1) determine if

“social attraction enhancement activities are warranted”, and (2) determine if “project 

implementation would be impeded by physical or natural limitations.” Specifically, 

Phase II of the project should be implemented only if: 

(1) findings of Phase I indicate that Common Murres are not self-sustaining within the 

colony identified for restoration; 

(2) social attraction methods are deemed to have a reasonable likelihood of success based 

on Phase I findings; 

(3) social attraction devices can be deployed in a manner safe for humans and all 

necessary access permission is obtained; 

(4) rock(s) in which social attraction devices are to be deployed allows adequate 

monitoring of Common Murres and other seabirds for attendance, breeding behavior, 

and reproductive success, and; 

(5) it is compatible with Refuge purposes at Copalis NWR and surrounding Refuges (i.e., 

it will not materially impair the management of migratory birds, including Common 

Murres and other migratory species). 

In other words, Phase II should be implemented if the results from Phase I suggest that; 

(1) social attraction techniques are a viable option at these sites, (2) the sites can be

adequately monitored for behavioral interactions with the attraction devices and, (3) the 

sites can be adequately monitored for reproductive success. 

Our results indicate that food is not a limiting factor to the stability or growth of the 

colony of murres at the Point Grenville. Despite this, our aerial, at-sea and ground-based 

data all indicate that the murre colony at the Point Grenville is not stable or selfsustaining, and that it also can not support many more murres than currently attempt to 

breed there. The reasons for this are two-fold. First, and most importantly, eagles cause 

direct mortality of adults and chicks, and reduction in reproductive success through (a) 

egg breakage when adults flee the colony in response to eagle presence, (b) predation on 

eggs by gulls when adult murres flee the colony, and (c) reduced fitness of chicks 

44
TMTC COPALIS FINAL REPORT – DRAFT 7/15/04 

resulting from subsequent relaying attempts. Second, murre nesting habitat is limited on 

the Point Grenville; most of the suitable ledges and crevices in the walls of the Point 

Grenville are already being utilized by murres. Most of the cliff-top areas that were used 

for nesting by murres many years ago are now covered with tall grass in which murres 

will not nest. This grass can not be removed because the Point Grenville are designated 

as Wilderness areas by the Copalis NWR which prohibits such activities. Further, even if 

the grass could be removed, continued eagle predation would like prevent murres from

nesting on cliff-top sites. The Tatoosh pilot decoy study clearly indicates that eagles are 

attracted to decoys in unprotected areas, such as would be available at the tops of 

Grenville Arch and Erin. 

Given these conclusions, we do not think that deploying decoys on the Point Grenville 

would be likely to significantly enhance the number of murres that breed successfully at 

that colony because (1) most suitable crevice sites are already being used for nesting by 

murres, and (2) deploying decoys on cliff-top sites would likely result in eagle predation 

of murres attracted to those decoys. Indeed, such activities may act as a population sink 

by increasing adult, chick and egg mortality. Therefore, we recommend that Phase II 

should not be implemented at the Point Grenville. 

Instead, as co-Principal Investigators of this project (Chris Thompson - WDFW and 

Kevin Ryan - Refuge) we propose to move all Phase II activities to Tatoosh Island 

(Appendix F). We have documented above that murres in Washington appear to be a 

morphometrically panmictic population, i.e., there is nothing different about murres at the 

Point Grenville as compared to murres at other colonies in Washington. Furthermore, we 

have documented that the breeding schedule of the Point Grenville colonies and the 

Tatoosh colony is identical. Finally, we have presented indirect evidence that the 

increase in the Tatoosh murre population in the 1980s likely came from the Refuge 

colonies. 

Because the goal of this project is to increase the size of breeding population of murres in 

Washington, an increase in murres at any colony within Washington will benefit the 

45
TMTC COPALIS FINAL REPORT – DRAFT 7/15/04 

“Washington” murre population and fulfill the objective of Phase II. Of all other murre 

colonies in Washington, Tatoosh Island is the logical choice for conducting Phase II for 

many reasons: (1) there is extensive crevice/ledge and cliff-top habitat that is not 

currently used by murres, but could be utilized by murres in the future as the Tatoosh 

colony expands; (2) decoys can be deployed safely in both crevice/ledge sites and clifftop sites given the knowledge gained in the decoy pilot experiment; (3) eagles currently 

cause less disturbance at Tatoosh than at the Point Grenville despite increased presence at 

Tatoosh. We believe this is due to a combination of learning on the part of the Tatoosh 

murres, availability of safe habitat on Tatoosh, and recent nesting activity on the part of a 

single eagle pair; (4) murre activities (e.g., response top decoys, foraging activity, 

reproductive success, etc.) can be monitored much more easily and accurately than at the 

Point Grenville (or any other murre colony in Washington); and (5) we have agreement 

from the Makah Tribe, who own Tatoosh Island, work on Tatoosh Island. 

46
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