### ref2011.d020911a **2008 2009**  **2010 2011**  **2012 2013**  ReportAnnual Energy Outlook 2011 Scenarioref2011 Reference case Datekeyd020911a Release Date April 2011



### 57. Light-Duty

**Vehicle Sales by**

**Technology**

**Ty pe**  **(thousands) United States**  Technology Type **2008 2009**  **2010 2011**  **2012 2013** 

**New Car Sales 1/ Conventional Cars**  Gasoline ICE Vehicles 5887.34362.1 4598.3 5043.2 5704.0 6313.7 TDI Diesel ICE 8.3 158.3 167.5 310.5 439.9 517.5 Total Conventional Cars 5895.64520.54765.7 5353.6 6143.9 6831.1

**A lternative-Fuel Cars**  Ethanol-Flex Fuel ICE 393.2 314.5 365.4 657.3 931.5 1132.4 100 Mile Electric Vehicle 0.1 0.0 0.1 14.9 27.1 36.5 200 Mile Electric Vehicle 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Plug-in 10 Gasoline Hybrid 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Plug-in 40 Gasoline Hybrid 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.0 21.7 23.8 Electric-Diesel Hybrid 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Electric-Gasoline Hybrid 283.6 176.6 178.6 263.3 297.2 342.8 Compressed Natural Gas ICE 1.3 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.5 Compressed Natural Gas Bi-fuel 2.5 1.7 2.0 2.3 2.7 3.1 Liquefied Petroleum Gases ICE 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Liquefied Petroleum Gases Bi-fuel 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 Fuel Cell Gasoline 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Fuel Cell Methanol 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Fuel Cell Hydrogen 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total Alternative Cars 680.8 493.8 547.3 950.2 1281.8 1540.3

Percent Alternative Car Sales 10.35 9.85 10.30 15.07 17.26 18.40 **Total New Car Sales 6576.4** **5014.3 5313.0**  **6303.8 7425.7**  **8371.4**

**New Light Truck Sales 2/ Conventional Light Trucks**  Gasoline ICE Vehicles 4953.0 3978.04486.44506.04861.8 5070.2 TDI Diesel ICE 15.1 13.6 40.1 59.2 87.1 122.4 Total Conventional Light Trucks 4968.1 3991.64526.54565.24948.8 5192.6

**A lternative-Fuel Light Trucks**  Ethanol-Flex Fuel ICE 792.5 732.3 856.1 1609.3 2110.4 2309.4 100 Mile Electric Vehicle 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.3 200 Mile Electric Vehicle 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Plug-in 10 Gasoline Hybrid 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.7 19.5 20.2 Plug-in 40 Gasoline Hybrid 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Electric-Diesel Hybrid 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Electric-Gasoline Hybrid 87.5 76.2 96.6 108.1 157.5 168.1

Compressed Natural Gas ICE 1.5 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.6 1.7 Compressed Natural Gas Bi-fuel 3.2 2.4 2.7 2.9 3.2 3.4 Liquefied Petroleum Gases ICE 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 Liquefied Petroleum Gases Bi-fuel 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Fuel Cell Gasoline 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Fuel Cell Methanol 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Fuel Cell Hydrogen 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total Alternative Light Trucks 885.1 812.3 957.1 1734.3 2293.3 2505.0

Percent Alternative Light Truck Sales 15.12 16.91 17.45 27.53 31.67 32.54 **Total New Light Truck Sales 5853.3** **4803.9 5483.5** **6299.5 7242.2**  **7697.6**

**Percent Total A lternative Sales**  **12.60 13.30**  **13.93 21.30**  **24.37 25.17**  EPACT Legislative Alternative Sales 27.84 21.41 22.87 26.18 30.08 33.16 ZEVP Legislative Alternative Sales 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

**Total Sales, Cars and Light Trucks** Conventional Gasoline 10840.3 8340.2 9084.7 9549.210565.811383.9 TDI Diesel 23.4 171.9 207.5 369.7 527.0 639.8 Flex-Fuel 1185.8 1046.8 1221.6 2266.6 3041.9 3441.8 Electric 0.1 0.1 0.1 15.2 27.7 37.8 Plug-in Electric Hybrid 0.0 0.0 0.0 22.8 41.2 44.1 Electric Hybrid 371.1 252.7 275.2 371.4 454.7 510.9 Gaseous (LPG and Natural Gas) 9.0 6.6 7.4 8.5 9.6 10.7 Fuel Cell 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 **Total Vehicles Sales 12429.7**  **9818.2 10796.5** **12603.3 14667.8** **16069.0**

Conventional Gasoline Microhybrids 9.9 10.9 17.6 27.3 61.9 86.1 TDI Diesel Microhybrids 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.6 2.4 **Total A lternative-Fueled Vehicle Sales**  **1599.3 1489.0**  **1729.4 3081.5** **4164.0 4771.3** 

1/ Includes personal and fleet light-duty cars. 2/ Includes personal and fleet light-duty trucks. ICE = Internal combustion engine. EPACT = Energy Policy Act of 1992. ZEVP = Zero emission vehicles from the low emission vehicle program. - - = Not applicable. Sources: 2008 and 2009 values derived using: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), Describing Current and Potential Markets for Alternative-Fuel Vehicles, DOE/EIA-0604(96) (Washington, DC, March 1996); EIA, Alternatives to Traditional Transportation Fuels 1998, http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/alt_trans98/table1.html; and EIA, AEO2011 National Energy Modeling System run scenarion_and_datekey. Projections: EIA, AEO2011 National Energy Modeling System run ref2011.d020911a.**2014 2015**  **2016 2017**  **2018 2019**  **2020 2021**  **2022**

**2014 2015**  **2016 2017**  **2018 2019**  **2020 2021**  **2022**

6344.3 6594.8 6686.0 6659.4 6656.3 6787.2 7028.9 7201.6 7341.2 517.3 508.4 498.2 480.9 473.3 472.7 485.1 497.7 506.6 6861.6 7103.2 7184.2 7140.3 7129.5 7259.9 7514.0 7699.3 7847.8

1184.9 1288.2 1357.9 1303.7 1301.6 1328.4 1391.3 1411.1 1472.8 39.3 45.5 42.8 51.0 55.4 52.2 61.9 73.9 86.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.9 9.3 8.9 28.3 29.2 30.9 48.0 52.2 56.4 30.2 27.0 34.0 42.0 49.9 51.6 65.2 70.9 77.5 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 1.1 4.2 8.2 12.2 365.5 378.2 396.5 411.0 422.0 436.4 458.3 474.4 492.8 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.9 3.2 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.8 4.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.4 2.4 2.4 5.0 4.8 4.8 5.1 5.1 1630.9 1755.9 1848.1 1843.9 1868.6 1911.0 2039.6 2101.82208.9

19.20 19.82 20.46 20.52 20.77 20.84 21.35 21.44 21.96 **8492.6 8859.1**  **9032.3 8984.2**  **8998.2 9170.9**  **9553.6 9801.1** **10056.6**

4839.24747.1 4646.54364.84203.84108.1 4050.84093.34041.2 131.5 145.0 141.4 137.5 132.4 130.4 137.3 148.8 158.6 4970.74892.24787.84502.34336.24238.54188.1 4242.1 4199.8

2223.9 2173.1 2135.82057.7 1965.6 1906.0 1897.2 1882.6 1905.9 2.1 2.7 3.4 4.5 4.9 5.3 5.4 6.1 7.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 20.6 21.3 18.1 17.3 18.8 16.6 19.3 19.0 35.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4166.8 216.5 213.5 224.3 220.3 218.7 219.9 223.6 229.5

1.7 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 3.3 3.3 3.2 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.5 0.5 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.2 2419.1 2419.82376.92309.7 2216.0 2152.8 2148.1 2137.82184.8

32.74 33.09 33.17 33.91 33.82 33.68 33.90 33.51 34.22 **7389.8 7311.9**  **7164.7 6812.0**  **6552.2 6391.3**  **6336.2 6380.0**  **6384.6**

**25.50 25.82**  **26.08 26.29**  **26.27 26.11**  **26.35 26.20**  **26.72** 32.97 33.75 33.71 33.03 32.65 32.81 33.67 34.33 34.95 0.00 254.96 252.20 242.70 364.26 363.39 368.67 392.64 393.85

11183.511341.911332.411024.210860.010895.311079.811295.011382.4 648.8 653.4 639.6 618.3 605.7 603.1 622.4 646.5 665.2 3408.8 3461.2 3493.7 3361.4 3267.2 3234.4 3288.5 3293.7 3378.7 41.4 48.2 46.2 55.5 60.3 57.5 67.3 80.0 93.2 56.7 57.6 61.1 87.6 97.9 99.1 132.5 142.1 169.5 532.4 594.8 610.2 635.5 642.7 656.4 682.7 706.6 734.9 10.7 10.9 10.9 10.7 10.5 10.6 10.8 10.9 11.2 0.0 2.9 3.0 2.9 6.0 5.9 5.9 6.3 6.2 **15882.4 16171.0** **16197.0 15796.1** **15550.4 15562.2** **15889.8 16181.1** **16441.2**

168.2 416.4 776.2 1230.5 1392.5 1387.2 1399.1 1423.5 1426.1 5.2 14.9 28.8 51.1 56.3 56.1 58.1 60.8 62.7 **4867.1 5245.5**  **5640.8 6002.4** **6082.9 6054.2**  **6209.1 6309.6**  **6484.9 2023**  **2024 2025**  **2026 2027**  **2028 2029**  **2030 2031** 

**2023 2024**  **2025 2026**  **2027 2028**  **2029 2030**  **2031**

7463.5 7633.9 7776.3 7921.5 8055.3 8192.7 8306.8 8444.8 8563.9 517.2 524.0 540.9 552.8 565.4 578.7 588.1 599.7 604.5 7980.7 8157.9 8317.2 8474.3 8620.7 8771.4 8894.8 9044.5 9168.4

1497.5 1527.3 1557.3 1586.8 1614.4 1646.5 1675.6 1710.4 1741.2 88.1 89.2 98.7 104.3 111.0 115.4 118.3 116.0 115.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 60.5 65.6 93.6 102.7 111.6 119.9 129.6 138.3 145.4 82.8 85.4 93.2 94.9 102.8 110.1 113.3 114.2 118.0 16.6 20.0 22.9 25.6 28.6 31.7 34.7 37.7 40.1 507.2 525.7 544.5 561.0 580.1 597.3 613.3 625.1 633.8 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.3 4.0 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.8 4.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.0 5.8 5.6 5.7 6.0 6.1 6.1 6.3 6.4 2263.8 2325.52422.52487.82561.3 2634.0 2698.2 2755.52807.8

22.10 22.18 22.56 22.69 22.91 23.09 23.27 23.35 23.45 **10244.5 10483.4** **10739.6 10962.1** **11182.0 11405.5** **11593.0 11800.0** **11976.2**

4038.1 4033.1 4052.94073.34059.94076.24054.04104.74118.8 167.6 177.0 191.6 208.1 224.6 242.5 259.9 278.9 299.4 4205.74210.1 4244.54281.44284.54318.64313.94383.64418.2

1892.6 1874.6 1877.9 1878.9 1865.3 1865.9 1851.2 1868.6 1871.9 8.2 9.4 11.0 12.8 14.8 17.0 19.5 22.0 24.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 47.3 61.1 74.4 80.5 93.3 109.1 124.1 131.9 136.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8236.0 245.4 255.1 261.9 271.7 276.6 282.2 287.8 290.5

1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.1 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.9 2190.8 2197.6 2225.7 2241.52252.7 2276.52284.92318.1 2331.6

34.25 34.30 34.40 34.36 34.46 34.52 34.63 34.59 34.54 **6396.5 6407.7**  **6470.2 6523.0**  **6537.1 6595.1**  **6598.7 6701.7**  **6749.8**

**26.77 26.78**  **27.01 27.05**  **27.17 27.28**  **27.39 27.42**  **27.45** 35.41 36.00 36.71 37.31 37.85 38.47 38.91 39.55 40.02 392.76441.03443.33450.79476.07483.98489.63 500.44 506.76

11501.611667.011829.211994.912115.212268.912360.712549.512682.7 684.8 701.0 732.4 760.8 789.9 821.2 848.0 878.6 904.0 3390.1 3402.0 3435.2 3465.7 3479.7 3512.4 3526.8 3579.0 3613.1 96.2 98.7 109.7 117.1 125.8 132.5 137.8 138.0 140.2 190.5 212.1 261.2 278.2 307.6 339.1 367.0 384.5 400.0 760.3 791.6 823.1 849.1 881.0 906.3 931.0 951.4 965.2 11.3 11.6 11.8 12.0 12.2 12.4 12.6 12.7 12.7 6.1 7.2 7.1 7.2 7.7 7.8 7.9 8.1 8.3 **16641.0 16891.1** **17209.8 17485.0** **17719.1 18000.5** **18191.7 18501.7** **18726.1**

1437.5 1451.8 1469.0 1486.1 1495.7 1511.9 1517.9 1541.1 1554.2 64.9 66.6 70.1 73.3 76.6 80.3 83.4 87.2 90.4 **6577.0 6675.8**  **6849.6 6976.3**  **7099.6 7243.6**  **7348.9 7493.4** **7597.6 2032**  **2033 2034**  **2035**

**2009-**

**2032 2033**  **2034 2035**  **2035**

8647.9 8720.7 8824.4 8828.8 2.7% 612.6 621.1 631.2 644.0 5.5% 9260.5 9341.8 9455.6 9472.9 2.9%

1762.7 1783.0 1809.3 1955.5 7.3% 117.3 121.5 127.0 130.2 35.3% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - 152.1 157.5 164.7 170.7 - - 121.8 130.8 136.2 139.8 - - 42.7 45.5 48.6 52.2 - - 641.5 650.0 660.9 667.2 5.2% 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.4 3.8% 4.9 4.9 5.0 5.1 4.3% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.5% 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 3.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - 6.5 6.5 6.6 6.8 - - 2852.1 2902.52961.1 3130.1 7.4%

23.55 23.70 23.85 24.84 3.6% **12112.6 12244.4** **12416.7 12603.0**  **3.6%**

4110.34100.64087.84079.4 0.1% 320.9 345.4 377.2 417.0 14.1% 4431.24446.04465.04496.4 0.5%

1861.8 1851.8 1840.0 1829.1 3.6% 30.3 35.9 40.3 44.8 30.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - 140.1 143.5 147.3 150.9 - - 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 - -292.1 293.6 296.1 298.6 5.4%

1.5 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.0% 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.2 1.1% 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 3.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.1 - - 2332.2 2332.92331.92331.7 4.1%

34.48 34.41 34.31 34.15 2.7% **6763.4 6778.9**  **6796.9 6828.1**  **1.4%**

**27.46 27.52**  **27.55 28.11**  **2.9%** 40.35 40.67 41.08 41.56 2.6% 511.13 515.41 520.95 527.20 - -

12758.212821.312912.112908.2 1.7% 933.5 966.6 1008.4 1061.1 7.3% 3624.5 3634.8 3649.3 3784.6 5.1% 147.6 157.4 167.4 175.0 33.4% 413.9 431.8 448.2 461.5 - - 977.0 990.0 1006.5 1018.7 5.5% 12.8 12.9 13.0 13.2 2.7% 8.4 8.5 8.7 8.9 - - **18876.0 19023.3** **19213.6 19431.1**  **2.7%**

1560.3 1565.3 1572.2 1571.2 21.1% 94.0 98.1 103.3 109.8 29.5% **7678.1 7767.3**  **7873.7 8094.1**  **6.7%**