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### GAMA Water Heater Data November 9-10,1998 U.S. Department of Energy GAMA Wat er Heater Diat Officeof Energy Efficiency 

### SubmittaI l and Renewable Energy 1000 Independence Avenue, SW Washington, DC 20585 

### DOE Workshop 

## IWater Heater: GAMA Data Submittal 

### Introduction * Data collection methodology * Illustrative manufacturing cost submittals * UncertaintyNariability * GAMA datasubmittal

OfficeCode document codeWater Heater: GAMA Data Submittal 

### Data Collection Methodology * Baseline products were establishedfor different fuel types: -50 gallon electric, EF 0.86 -40 gallon gas, EF 0.54 -32 gallon, EF 0.53 * DOE provided GAMA with more specificdefinitions of the cost categories outlined in thesurvey instrument * Data was submitted to GAMA bythe manufacturers -Manufacturers provided a range of costsassociated with achieving each design

option. -Ranges are described bytriangular distributions with minimum, most likelyand

maximum values * ADL developed a spreadsheet to aggregate manufacturers' costdistributions at each efficiency level.

Office Code document code 3Strawman IndustryCash Flow GAMA Data Submittal 

## The GAMA data submittal provided data associated with fullproduction costs.

Full Production Cost Non-Production Cost

Office Code document code 4Water Heater: GAMA Data Submittal WaterHeaterManufacturing Costs 

## IllustrativeCost DistributionsforTotal Manufacturing Costs as provided by different manufacturers Total manufacturing costsfor Design Option "X"

Manufacturer A O 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Cost ($)
Manufacturer B 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Cost ($)

Manufacturer C O 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Cost ($) OfficeCode document code 5Water Heater: GAMA Data Submittal WaterHeaterManufacturing Costs 

## Characterizing Uncertainty and Variability inManufacturing Costs * Samples were drawn from manufacturer distributions to create an industry distribution at each design option * Results are reported as distributions over entire range ofcosts and for all efficiency levels * Total costs are reported fordifferent percentile levels (I.e. 0%, 10%, 20%, 30%, 40%, 50%, 60%, 70%, 80%, 90%, 100%) * Asimple average of most likelycostswas also reported as a point valueof incremental cost

Office Code document code 6Water Heater: GAMA Data Submittal WaterHeaterManufacturing Costs 

## Manufacturing Costs represented using Probability Distribution
Manufaorer A Design Option X Manufacturer B /50% \ 50%" Mkt. share Mkt. share 

### 0 :1 

### 12 13 4 5 6 

## 1 71 8: .I 

### I I Total Cost($) .J

IO Cod mt I I I I 0 I n' - i I~a~: i i I I Total Rel. Probability =1.0 Cn 1.00 2.75 4.50 6.24 8.00 Total Cost ($) Office Code document code 7Water Heater: GAMA Data Submittal 

### GAMA provided thefollowingaverage costsforelectricwater heater design options.
E

.ei;g: ^- Product Options : Material Labor Overhead Transportation CapitalCosts Design Cost Baseline 62.16 1241 408 10
. 1 1 (10.57) (38.89) HeatTraps 64.75 161 41.71 10.11 0.15 0.24

_ _ _ _ _ (10.76) (39.71) Increased Insulation 7039 12.92 43.10 11.55 3.56 1.47 (1st level) (11.07) (41.15) 

### * All costs per unit * Data inparenthesis isthe latest update submitted by GAMA on October 21, 1998

Office Code documentcode 8Water Heater: GAMA Data Submittal 

### GAMA provided the followingaverage costsforgas-fired water heater design options. -DOE 

### ;: -;0 Prdc -'^Options Material Labor Overhead Transportation Capital Costs Design Cost Baseline 75.02 124 40.43 9.67

_ __ (10.74) (38.35) HeatTraps 77.77 12.5 40.4 9.67 0.07 0.13 ___(10.90) (38.54) Increased Insulation 3. 13.09 42.80 1.
. . (1st level) (11.33) (40.75) Improved Flue 75.99 1378 41.75 9.67 1.17 1.72 Baffle (11.98) (39.73) Improved 62.03 Combustion 134.24 21.68 (6188) 10.82 1.42 1.40 Chamber______

______ Flue Damper inn16.61 49.13 Flue Damper 160.07 (1 49.13)16.84 3.45 2.03 (electro-mechanical) (14.03) (47.84) 15.77 47.31 liD 118.80 (135.3 47.31 14.51 2.09 1.47 IUU (13.34) (45.90) 

### * Allcostsper unit * Data inparenthesis isthe latest update submitted by GAMA on October 21, 1998

Office Code document code 9Water Heater: GAMA Data Submittal Non-GAMA Data 

## Forthe remaining design options, additional sourcesfordata were used. * Consultants provided data for:

- all oil-fired designs 

### -HFC 245 insulation -plastic tank -side arm heater

Office Code document code 10