Single Source Ozone and PM Modeling**Ralph Morris ENVIRON International Corporation** **rmorris@environcorp.com EPA’s 9th Conference on Air Quality Modeling** **Non-Guideline Applications October 10, 2008** EPA Guidelines/Guidance for AirQuality Modeling Assessments**AERMOD for near-source (< 50 km) air quality impacts of primary pollutants (EPA, 2005)** **CALPUFF for far-field (> 50 km) air quality impacts of primary pollutants (EPA, 2003)** **– CALPUFF adopted for SO2 and primary PM PSD** **increments and NAAQSs, not AQRV analysis****Photochemical Grid Models (PGMs) recommended for ozone and secondary components of PM (e.g.,** **SO4 & NO3) (EPA, 2007) –** **Lagrangian models (e.g., AERMOD and CALPUFF) only suitable for primary components** New Ozone and PM2.5NAAQS**New 0.075 ppm 8-hour and 35 μg/m 3** **24-hr PM 2.5** **NAAQSs will bring many more areas into nonattainment –** **PM 2.5** **NAAQS increases importance of secondary PM 2.5** **Capability needed to obtain individual contribution s to** **ozone and PM 2.5** **concentrations, deposition and visibility****Current guideline models have no (AERMOD) or highly simplified (CALPUFF) representation of chemistry** **Photochemical Grid Models (PGMs) have capability to correctly treat chemistry** **– But how can they resolve and correctly simulate nea** **r source plume chemistry and dispersion?** Why PGMs Have Not Been Used toAddress “Single Source” Impacts**PGMs can only resolve impacts to the grid resolution** **– Fine grid size needed near the source to resolve ne** **ar source plume chemistry and dispersion** **Need many grid cells to assess downwind impacts High computer resource requirements** **Must account for all emission sources Needed to correctly simulate chemistry** **Databases more costly to develop MM5/WRF applications** **SMOKE or other emissions model****More expertise needed in their application**Recent Developments for “SingleSource” Modeling using PGMs**Two-way interactive grid nesting –** **Allows fine grid over sources with coarser grid dow nwind** **when plumes are larger****Flexi-nesting –** **Can specify fine grid to resolve point source plume chemistry** **and dispersion without providing met and emission i nputs** **Full Chemistry Plume-in-Grid Modules –** **Treats unique near-source chemistry of point source plumes** **PM and Ozone Source Apportionment –** **Allows individual source(s) assessments****Computational advances****Availability of PGM Databases and model set ups –** **RPOs, AIRPACT, SIPs, etc.**Advanced Grid Nesting**Two-way interactive grid nesting –** **Allows specification of high resolution grid over s ources** **with coarser grids downwind where plumes are larger****Flexi-Nesting –** **Interpolate meteorology, emissions and/or other inp uts** **for nested fine grid from coarse grid data –** **Allows fine grid treatment of point source plumes Available within the CAMx model (just specify where** **fine grid domains are desired in job script)** **Have developed tool to generate flexi-nest fine gri d inputs for** **CMAQ (for EPA/OAQPS)**Full Chemistry Plume-in-Grid**Incremental chemistry approach allows full gas phase, aqueous-phase and aerosol chemistry** **within Plume-in-Grid modules –** **CAMx Incremental Reactions for Organics and NOx (IRON) Plume-in-Grid (PiG) treatment** **– CMAQ Advanced Plume Treatment (APT)** **• Calculate chemical kinetic reaction rates using to tal** **concentrations (PiG + Grid) • Apply chemical rates to incremental concentrations** **within puffs (PiG alone)** **• When size of plume is commensurate with grid cell size** **release incremental PiG concentrations to grid mode l** Full Chemistry Plume-in-Grid**Important to simulate proper chemistry in** **early evolution of point source plumes** **Very little if any ozone and secondary PM** **2.5 formed under Stage 1** **and 2 plume chemistry conditions for large** **NOx sources**StackPM and Ozone SourceApportionment**PM and Ozone Source Apportionment Technology (OSAT/PSAT) available in CAMx** **– Uses reactive tracers that operate in parallel to h** **ost model and tracks ozone and PM formation back to** **emission source regions and categories –** **PSAT has five families of tracers: SO4; NO3/NH4; Primary PM; SOA; and Hg** **Similar approaches in CMAQ (TSSA and PPTM)****Allows for identification of the ozone and PM impacts from several individual sources or groups** **of sources in single run**Example “Single Source” PGMApplications**Texas “Group BART” application –** **CAMx 36/12 km with PiG and PSAT****Estimation of individual contributions of 31 point sources to annual PM** **2.5 in the eastern U.S.** **– Individual point source contributions to 2009 annua** **l PM** **2.5 concentrations** **– Visibility Improvements for States and Tribal Assoc** **iation of the Southeast (VISTAS) and Association for** **Integrated Planning of the Southeast (ASIP)****Annual PM 2.5** **SIP modeling for St. Louis –** **Effects of local sources on PM 2.5** **nonattainment**Texas Group BART Analysis**CENRAP 2002 36 km modeling CAMx database –** **Add 12 km flexi-nest grid covering Texas and nearby Class I areas** **– Use IRON PiG for Texas BART Source** **– Use PSAT to obtain PM2.5 contributions of groups of** **Texas BART sources for comparison with 0.5 deciview threshold** **-2736 -1872 -1008 -144 720 1584 2448 -2088** **-1656 -1224** **-792 -360** **72 504** **936 1368** **1800**TCEQ Task Jkm

k m**-936 -816 -696 -576 -456 -336 -216 -96 24 144 264 384 -1620** **-1500 -1380** **-1260 -1140** **-1020 -900** **-780 -660** **-540 -420** km

k mVISTAS/ASIP 36/12 km Domains**2002 Annual Runs –** **4 Quarters w/ ~15 day spin up –** **MPI w/ 6 CPUs****36 km: 148 x 112 (4 days)****12 km: 168 x 177 (10 days)****19 Vertical Layers****CMAQ V4.51 w/ SOAmods –** **M3Dry –** **CBM-IV/AE4/SORGAM –** **SOAmods: In 2005 VISTAS enhanced CMAQ to include** **SOA from sesquiterpenes and isoprene (Morris et al., 2006)** ASIP PM2.5Point Source Contributions**Some ASIP/VISTAS states wanted to know individual c ontributions of** **several point sources to 2009 PM 2.5** **levels –** **31 individual point sources in 6 states identified –** **Contributions due to SO2 and primary PM emissions r equested** **CALPUFF considered for assessment –** **Not consistent with CMAQ full-science chemistry –** **Provide inconsistent source contributions with 2009 PM** **2.5 SIP projections** **ASIP 36/12 km database inappropriate for individual point source** **modeling –** **12 km grid cell size too coarse to treat chemistry and dispersion of point** **source plumes –** **Use of high enough resolution to resolve point sour ce plume would be** **computationally prohibitive –** **Would need to perform base case and 31 zero-out run s to get individual** **source contributions****Elected to develop a new CAMx 2002 database: –** **12/4 km domain with two-way nested grids –** **Plume-in-Grid to address near-source chemistry and dispersion** **– PM Source Apportionment Technology (PSAT) to obtain** **individual source contributions** **CAMx 12/4 km domain nested within ASIP 12 km** **CMAQ domain (one-way nesting)** **CAMx 12/4 modeling using two-way interactive** **grid nesting****2002 base case using standard model** **2009 base case with PSAT PM** **2.5 source** **apportionment for 31 point sources** **120 240 360 480 600 720 840 960 1080 1200 1320 1440 1560 1680 180 0 1920 2040** **-1560 -1440** **-1320 -1200** **-1080 -960** **-840 -720** **-600 -480** **-360 -240** **-120 0** **120 240** **360 480** VISTAS CMAQ 12 km: 168 x 177 (108, -1620) to (2124, 504)CAMx 12km: 54 x 71 (828, -612) to (1476, 240)**VISTAS CMAQ 12km CAMx 12km** **900 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 -600** **-500 -400** **-300 -200** **-100 0** **100 200** CAMx 12km: 54 x 71 (828, -612) to (1476, 240)CAMx 04km (includes buffer cells):Steubenville/Wierton 26 x 35 (1316, 80)to (1420, 220)Charleston 50 x 38 (1172,-148) to (1372, 4)Louisville 17 x 26 ( 944, -184) to (1012, -80)Chattanooga/Knoxville 47 x 44 (1028, -496) to(1216, -320)CAMx 12km4km Chat4 km Char4 km Steu4 km Loui**CAMx 12/4 Domains****Four 4 km domains: –** **Charleston-Huntington, KY/OH/WV** **– Wheeling-Weirton,** **OH/PA/WV –** **Louisville, IN/KY –** **Knoxville-Chattanooga, GA/KY/NC** **PSAT to obtain individual PM** **2.5 contributions from** **31 point sources****Plume-in-Grid for 31 plus other large point sources** Huntington-Ashland and Charleston 4 km DomainMap with FRM sites & Source Locations**1180 1200** **1220 1240** **1260 1280** **1300 1320** **1340 1360** **-140 -120** **-100 -80** **-60 -40** **-20 0** **Marathon Ashland Pet LLC Ak Steel Corp** **E I Dupont Inc Kentucky Power Co Big Sandy Plant** **Ohio Valley Electric Corp. Kyger Creek Gavin Power Plant** **Swva, Inc. Dupont - Belle** **Bayer Cropscience Appalachian Power - Mountaineer Plant** **Flexsys - Nitro Plant Appalachian Power - John E Amos Plant** **KY-Boyd-0017 KY-Carter-0500** **OH-Lawrence-0010 OH-Scioto-0013** **WV-Cabell-0006 WV-Kanawha-0010** **WV-Kanawha-1005 Appalachian Power - Kanawha River Plant** **Appalachian Power - Philip Sporn Plant Huntington Alloys** **Fmc Corporation - Steam Plant Union Carbide (Dow) So. Charleston Plant** **Clearon Corp.**Huntington-Ashland-Charleston: 4 km Grid;All Sources and SO4+Prim-PMASIP 2009 Q1 Projected SO4+EC+POC**0 1** **2 3** **4 5** **6 7** **8 9** **10 KY-Boy**  **d- 0**  **017 KY-Carter-0500**  **OH-Lawrence-0010 OH**  **- S**  **cioto -**  **0 013**  **WV- C**  **a bel**  **l-0006 WV**  **-K ana**  **w ha**  **- 001**  **0 WV-K**  **ana w**  **ha -**  **100 5** **Sources**

SO4+EC+POC ug/m3**BC IC** **Others Appalachian Pow er Co.-John E A** **Flexsys - Nitro Plant Appalachian Pow er Co.-Mountain** **Appalachian Pow er Co.-Philip S Ohio Pow er - Kammer Plant** **Ohio Pow er - Mitchell Plant Ppg Industries, Inc.** **Clearon Corp. Bayer Cropscience** **Appalachian Pow er - Kanaw ha Ri Union Carbide (Dow ) So. Charle** **Fmc Corporation - Steam Plant Dupont - Belle** **Isg Weirton Sw va, Inc.** **Huntington Alloys - A Special Bow ater New sprint & Directory** **E.U.Du Pont De Nemours And Com Pa Pow er Co/Bruce Mansfield Pl** **W.H. Sammis Plant Wheeling-Pittsburgh Steel Corp** **Cardinal Pow er Plant (Cardinal Gavin Pow er Plant** **Ohio Valley Electric Corp Kyge R.E. Burger Plant** **Kentucky Pow er Co Big Sandy P E I Dupont Inc** **Ak Steel Corp Marathon Ashland Pet Llc** **Psi Energy - Gallagher**ASIP 2009 Annual Projected SO4+EC+POC**0 0.5** **1 1.5** **2 2.5** **3 KY-Boyd-00**  **1 7**  **KY-Carter- 0**  **500 O**  **H -**  **L awre**  **nce -**  **0 0**  **1 0**  **OH-Scio t**  **o-0 0**  **13 WV**  **- Cabell-0006**  **WV-K a**  **nawha -**  **001 0**  **WV-Kanawha-1005 Sources** 

SO4+EC+POC ug/m3**Appalachian Pow er Co.-John E A Flexsys - Nitro Plant** **Appalachian Pow er Co.-Mountain Appalachian Pow er Co.-Philip S** **Ohio Pow er - Kammer Plant Ohio Pow er - Mitchell Plant** **Ppg Industries, Inc. Clearon Corp.** **Bayer Cropscience Appalachian Pow er - Kanaw ha Ri** **Union Carbide (Dow ) So. Charle Fmc Corporation - Steam Plant** **Dupont - Belle Isg Weirton** **Sw va, Inc. Huntington Alloys - A Special** **Bow ater New sprint & Directory E.U.Du Pont De Nemours And Com** **Pa Pow er Co/Bruce Mansfield Pl W.H. Sammis Plant** **Wheeling-Pittsburgh Steel Corp Cardinal Pow er Plant (Cardinal** **Gavin Pow er Plant Ohio Valley Electric Corp Kyge** **R.E. Burger Plant Kentucky Pow er Co Big Sandy P** **E I Dupont Inc Ak Steel Corp** **Marathon Ashland Pet Llc Psi Energy - Gallagher** Huntington-Ashland and Charleston:4 km Grid; 31 FacilitiesAk Steel CorpSwva Inc.(12.9)(10.3)(13.7)(15.0)(14.5)(13.3)(15.0)(CAMx 4 km 2009 PM2.5DVs)ASIP 2009 Annual Projected PSO4**0 0.2** **0.4 0.6** **0.8 1** **1.2 1.4**  **KY -Boy**  **d -001**  **7 K**  **Y-Carter-050 0**  **OH-Lawrence-0010 OH-Scioto-0013**  **W V-**  **C abel**  **l -0006**  **WV- Kanawh**  **a- 0010**  **WV -Kan**  **aw ha-100**  **5 Sources** 

PSO4 ug/m3Huntington- Ashland and Charleston: 31Facilities; SO4 (left) and Primary PM (right)ASIP 2009 Annual Projected PEC+POA**0.00 0.20** **0.40 0.60** **0.80 1.00** **1.20 1.40**  **K Y**  **-B o**  **yd-001 7**  **K Y-Cart**  **er -0500**  **OH-Lawre n**  **ce-0 0**  **10 OH-**  **S ciot**  **o -0013**  **WV-Cab e**  **l l**  **-00 0**  **6 WV-**  **K ana**  **wha-00 10**  **WV- K**  **anaw ha**  **- 1**  **00 5** **Sources**

PEC+POA ug/m3SO4Primary PMWheeling 4 kmDomain Map withFRM sites andSource Locations**1320 1340 1360 1380 1400 1420 80** **100 120** **140 160** **180 200** **220 R.E. Burger Plant** **Cardinal Power Plant (Cardinal Operating Wheeling-Pittsburgh Steel Corp** **W.H. Sammis Plant Pa Power Co/Bruce Mansfield Plt** **Isg Weirton Ppg Industries, Inc.** **Ohio Power - Mitchell Plant Ohio Power - Kammer Plant** **WV-Brooke-0005 WV-Hancock-0011** **WV-Hancock-1004 WV-Marshall-1002** **WV-Ohio-0010**CAMx 04km (includes buffer cells):Steubenville/Wierton 26 x 35 (1316, 80)to (1420, 220)ASIP 2009 Annual Projected SO4+EC+POC**0 0.5** **1 1.5** **2 2.5**  **WV- B**  **rooke-0005 WV-Hanco**  **c k-0011**  **WV -Hancock-1004**  **WV -M**  **ars hall**  **-1002 WV**  **-Oh io-**  **00 10** **Sources**

SO4+EC+POC ug/m3**Appalachian Pow er Co.-John E A Flexsys - Nitro Plant** **Appalachian Pow er Co.-Mountain Appalachian Pow er Co.-Philip S** **Ohio Pow er - Kammer Plant Ohio Pow er - Mitchell Plant** **Ppg Industries, Inc. Clearon Corp.** **Bayer Cropscience Appalachian Pow er - Kanaw ha Ri** **Union Carbide (Dow ) So. Charle Fmc Corporation - Steam Plant** **Dupont - Belle Isg Weirton** **Sw va, Inc. Huntington Alloys - A Special** **Bow ater New sprint & Directory E.U.Du Pont De Nemours And Com** **Pa Pow er Co/Bruce Mansfield Pl W.H. Sammis Plant** **Wheeling-Pittsburgh Steel Corp Cardinal Pow er Plant (Cardinal** **Gavin Pow er Plant Ohio Valley Electric Corp Kyge** **R.E. Burger Plant Kentucky Pow er Co Big Sandy P** **E I Dupont Inc Ak Steel Corp** **Marathon Ashland Pet Llc Psi Energy - Gallagher** Wheeling and Steubenville-Weirton: 4km Grid; 31 Facilities and SO4+Prim-PM(13.3)(12.5)(13.6)(13.5)(12.8)Isg WeirtonW.H. SammisWheelingPittsburgh SteelWheeling-Weirton: 31 Facilities; SO4(left) and Primary PM (right)ASIP 2009 Annual Projected PSO4**0 0.3** **0.6 0.9** **1.2 1.5**  **WV-Brooke-00 0**  **5**

**W V**  **- H**  **an c**  **oc k**  **- 001**  **1 W**  **V -**  **H an**  **c ock-**  **1 004**  **WV-Ma r**  **sh a**  **ll -**  **10 02**  **W V**  **- Oh**  **i o**  **-0 0**  **1 0** **Sources**

PSO4 ug/m3ASIP 2009 Annual Projected PEC+POA**0.00 0.30** **0.60 0.90** **1.20 1.50**  **WV-Brooke-0005 WV-Hancock**  **- 00**  **11 WV-Hanco**  **ck -1**  **0 04**  **WV- M**  **ar shal**  **l-1 0**  **02 W**  **V- O**  **hio-0010 Sources** 

PEC+POA ug/m3SO4Primary PMSt. Louis 2003-2005 Annual PM2.5Design Values**-500 0 500 1000 1500 -1500** **-1000 -500** **0 500** **Domain 1 (68x68) Domain 2 (128x149)** **Domain 3 (92x113)**St. LouisRegional 36/12km gridCMAQ V4.5SOAmods**Projected 2009 and 2012 PM2.5 Design** **Values at Granite City and East St.** **Louis still exceed the annual PM2.5** **NAAQS**Evidence that local sources contribute to PM2.5nonattainment at Granite City Monitor (B) andWashington St. Monitor (A)Hybrid CAMx 2002 12/4/1 kmModeling with PiG for Local Sources**BCs for from CMAQ 36/12 km regional modeling** **12/4/1 km two-way interactive grid nesting** **– Allows for recirculation of** **pollutants within domains****Plume-in-Grid and PSAT used for local sources** **– Subgrid-scale sampling grid** **use to sample puffs before released to grid** **– Ability for near-source “fence** **line” impacts 300 350 400 450 500 550 600 650 700 750 800** **-400 -350** **-300 -250** **-200 -150** **-100 -50** **0 50** **100**Preliminary Results for Total PM2.5PSAT_PIG - P25**0 5** **10 15** **20 25**  **Q1 Q2**  **Q3 Q4**  **ANN Q1**  **Q2 Q3**  **Q4 ANN**  **Q1 Q2**  **Q3 Q4**  **ANN Q1**  **Q2 Q3**  **Q4 ANN**  **Q1 Q2**  **Q3 Q4**  **ANN Q1**  **Q2 Q3**  **Q4 ANN**  **Q1 Q2**  **Q3 Q4**  **ANN Washington Ave. Granite City East St. Louis Ferguson Bl** **air St. Margaretta 2nd & Mound**

Concentration**BC IC** **Surface sources Other Point** **Sources Source#1** **Source#2 Live Puff** Local Sources contributing ~7 and ~3.4 μg/m3to annual averagePM2.5at Washington Street and Granite City monitoring sitesSt. Louis Conceptual Model**Turner and co-workers (2007a,b,c,d) have developed a Conceptual Model for PM** **2.5 exceedances in the St. Louis area** **– They found that local sources contribute ~3.2** **μg/m 3** **to PM 2.5** **at the Granite City monitor on average** **– The CAMx 12/4/1 km PiG modeling attributes** **3.4 μg/m 3** **to local sources at Granite City –** **Turner, J.R. and J.L. Garlock. 2007a. A Conceptua l Model for Ambient** **Fine Particulate Matter over the St. Louis Area. R evision 3.0.** **Washington University, St. Louis, MO. October. –** **Turner, J., J. Garlock, S. Raffuse, J. Rubin, S. Br own, B. Anderson and** **G. Norris. 2007b. Task#5 Transport Regimes Analys is, Version 1.** **Technical Memorandum. Washington University, St. L ouis, MO.** **October. –** **Turner, J.R., J. Garlock, J. Jaeckels and J. Schaue r. 2007c. Task#2** **Fine Particulate Matter Carbon Apportionment, Versi on 1. Washington** **University, St. Louis, MO. October. –** **Turner, J. and J. Garlock. 2007d. Task#4 Urban/Re gional Contrast** **and Intraurban Variability, Version 1. Washington U niversity, St. Louis,** **MO. October.**

**W a sh in g to n A ve . G ra n ite C ity**  **E a st S t. L o u is Fe rg u so n**  **B la ir S t. M a rg a re tta**  **2 n d & M o u n d ANN** **BC IC** **Surface sources Other Point** **Sources Source#1** **Source#2 Live Puff** **0 5** **10 15** **20 25**  **W a sh in g to n A ve .**

C o n c e n tra tio nConclusions**Recent advances in PGMs make them more suitable for assessing “single source” contributions to ozone, PM** **2.5 ,** **visibility and deposition –** **Fine resolution grids, two-way grid nesting, and fl exi-nesting** **– Full chemistry Plume-in-Grid modules** **– Ozone and PM source apportionment** **– Full gas-phase and aqueous-phase chemistry and aero** **sol thermodynamic modules** **The use PGM modeling to assess “single source” air quality, visibility and deposition issues has becom** **e more routine:** **– ASIP point source PM** **2.5 assessment** **– Oil and gas AQ and AQRV assessments as part of NEPA** **– Texas and Arkansas BART assessment** **– PM** **2.5 SIP modeling**