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GAMA Water Heater Data November 9-10,1998 U.S. Department of Energy GAMA Wat er Heater Diat Office of Energy Efficiency SubmittaI l and Renewable Energy 1000 Independence Avenue, SW

Washington, DC 20585

DOE Workshop

I

EE-RM-97-900 COMMENT 38JJ
Water Heater: GAMA Data Submittal

Introduction

* Data collection methodology

* Illustrative manufacturing cost submittals

* UncertaintyNariability

* GAMA data submittal

Office Code document code

EE-RM-97-900 COMMENT 38JJ
Water Heater: GAMA Data Submittal

Data Collection Methodology

* Baseline products were established for different fuel types:

-50 gallon electric, EF 0.86

-40 gallon gas, EF 0.54

-32 gallon, EF 0.53

* DOE provided GAMA with more specific definitions of the cost categories outlined in

the survey instrument

* Data was submitted to GAMA by the manufacturers

-Manufacturers provided a range of costs associated with achieving each design option.

-Ranges are described by triangular distributions with minimum, most likely and

maximum values

* ADL developed a spreadsheet to aggregate manufacturers' cost distributions at

each efficiency level.

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Strawman Industry Cash Flow GAMA Data Submittal

The GAMA data submittal provided data associated with full production costs.

Full Production Cost Non-Production Cost

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EE-RM-97-900 COMMENT 38JJ
Water Heater: GAMA Data Submittal Water Heater Manufacturing Costs

Illustrative Cost Distributions for Total Manufacturing Costs as

provided by different manufacturers

Total manufacturing costs for Design Option "X"

Manufacturer A

O 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Cost ($)

Manufacturer B

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Cost ($)

Manufacturer C

O 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Cost ($)

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EE-RM-97-900 COMMENT 38JJ
Water Heater: GAMA Data Submittal Water Heater Manufacturing Costs

Characterizing Uncertainty and Variability in Manufacturing Costs

* Samples were drawn from manufacturer distributions to create an industry distribution at each design option

* Results are reported as distributions over entire range of costs and for all efficiency levels

* Total costs are reported for different percentile levels (I.e. 0%, 10%, 20%, 30%, 40%, 50%, 60%, 70%, 80%, 90%, 100%)

* A simple average of most likely costs was also reported as a point value of

incremental cost

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EE-RM-97-900 COMMENT 38JJ
Water Heater: GAMA Data Submittal Water Heater Manufacturing Costs

Manufacturing Costs represented using Probability Distribution

Manufa orer A

Design Option X Manufacturer B

/50% \ 50%"

Mkt. share Mkt. share

0 : 1 12 13 4 5 6 1 71 8:

.I I I Total Cost ($) .J

IO Cod mt

I I I I

0 I n' - i I~a~: i i I I Total Rel.

Probability

=1.0

Cn

1.00 2.75 4.50 6.24 8.00

Total Cost ($)

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EE-RM-97-900 COMMENT 38JJ
Water Heater: GAMA Data Submittal

GAMA provided the following average costs for electric water heater

design options.

E .ei;g: ^- Product

Options : Material Labor Overhead Transportation Capital Costs Design Cost

Baseline 62.16 1241 408 10.11

(10.57) (38.89)

Heat Traps 64.75 161 41.71 10.11 0.15 0.24 _ _ _ _ _ (10.76) (39.71)

Increased Insulation 7039 12.92 43.10 11.55 3.56 1.47

(1st level) (11.07) (41.15)

* All costs per unit

* Data in parenthesis is the latest update submitted by GAMA on October 21, 1998

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EE-RM-97-900 COMMENT 38JJ
Water Heater: GAMA Data Submittal

GAMA provided the following average costs for gas-fired water heater

design options.

-DOE ;: - ;0 Prdc

-'^Options Material Labor Overhead Transportation Capital Costs Design Cost

Baseline 75.02 124 40.43 9.67 _ __ (10.74) (38.35)

Heat Traps 77.77 12.5 40.4 9.67 0.07 0.13

___(10.90) (38.54)

Increased Insulation 3. 13.09 42.80 1. . . (1st level) (11.33) (40.75)

Improved Flue 75.99 1378 41.75 9.67 1.17 1.72

Baffle (11.98) (39.73)

Improved 62.03

Combustion 134.24 21.68 (6188) 10.82 1.42 1.40

Chamber______ ______

Flue Damper inn16.61 49.13 Flue Damper 160.07 (1 49.13)16.84 3.45 2.03 (electro-mechanical) (14.03) (47.84)

15.77 47.31 liD 118.80 (135.3 47.31 14.51 2.09 1.47

IUU (13.34) (45.90)

* All costs per unit

* Data in parenthesis is the latest update submitted by GAMA on October 21, 1998

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EE-RM-97-900 COMMENT 38JJ
Water Heater: GAMA Data Submittal Non-GAMA Data

For the remaining design options, additional sources for data were

used.

* Consultants provided data for:

- all oil-fired designs

-HFC 245 insulation

-plastic tank

-side arm heater

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EE-RM-97-900 COMMENT 38JJ