San Joaquin Valley VMT Offset Demonstration -- Supporting data and summary for 1997 8-Hour Ozone Standard

Additional supporting data in xl spreadsheet format available upon request. Please contact John Ungvarsky at 415-972-3963 or ungvarsky.john@epa.gov

CY VMT ROG NOx

1990 52,198,974 214.06 285.25

1997 69,329,601 130.75 291.99

2002 78,399,543 75.82 298.84

2020 122,652,744 32.37 91.91

2023 130,172,967 30.28 69.54

2032 153,147,052 29.03 69.52

CY No New Measures with VMT Growth No New Measures and No Growth

and No Population Growth and No New Trips Actual Emissions with Controls and VMT Growth

2002 Base Year

2023 Attainment Year 49.43 27.79 23.94

CY No New Measures with VMT Growth No New Measures and No Growth

and No Population Growth and No New Trips Actual Emissions with Controls and VMT Growth

2002 Base Year

2023 Attainment Year 342.72 199.57 66.11

2023 "2013 FTIP" ROG1 24.80 "2013 FTIP"/"Default SG" ROG Ratio 1.002

2023 "2013 FTIP" NOx1 68.01 "2013 FTIP"/"Default SG" NOx Ratio 0.978

1

 SJV "2013 FTIP" ROG and NOx emissions obtained from files located at "S:\Transportation\Conformity\San Joaquin Valley\CY 2012 Conformity Work\CA Files Sep12"

EMFAC2011-SG SJV Default Summer Fleet Emissions (tpd)

SJV ROG Emissions (tpd) - 2002 Base Year - COMBINED - EMFAC2011LDV + EMFAC2011HD (UPDATED) - With ACC Adjustment for "Actual" Only!

SJV NOx Emissions (tpd) - 2002 Base Year - COMBINED - EMFAC2011LDV + EMFAC2011HD (UPDATED) - With ACC Adjustment for "Actual" Only!

* Data copied from "X:\Assessments\tscheffelin\VMT Growth Analysis\SJV Base Year 2002 EMFAC2011-LDV Analysis\SJV Base Year 2002 - Compare 2002 to 2020-2023-2032 VMT - June 21 2012.xlsx"

CY

No New Measures

with VMT Growth

No New Measures and No Growth

and No Population Growth and No New Trips

Actual Emissions with

Controls and VMT Growth

2002 73.80 73.80 73.80

2020 42.63 37.12 27.55

2023 31.82 17.52 25.22

2032 42.07 34.97 23.27

ROG without Diurnal or Resting Emissions

CY

No New Measures

with VMT Growth

No New Measures and No Growth

and No Population Growth and No New Trips

Actual Emissions with

Controls and VMT Growth

2002 85.97 85.97 85.97

2020 83.23 52.75 33.33

2023 78.47 40.82 29.12

2032 89.58 47.79 23.17

SJV NOx Emissions (tpd) - 2002 Base Year - Special EMFAC2011LDV Model

LDV Data!!!!!!!! Summary Tables for Charts!*

SJV ROG Emissions (tpd) - 2002 Base Year - Special EMFAC2011LDV Model

CY

No New Measures

with VMT Growth

No New Measures and No Growth

and No Population Growth and No New Trips

Actual Emissions with

Controls and VMT Growth

2002

2020 15.01 9.87

2023 17.51 10.27

2032 21.30 11.59

CY

No New Measures

with VMT Growth

No New Measures and No Growth

and No Population Growth and No New Trips

Actual Emissions with

Controls and VMT Growth

2002

2020 255.73 166.96

2023 271.95 158.75

2032 321.05 174.23

HD Data!!!!!!!! Summary Tables for Charts!*

SJV ROG Emissions (tpd) - 2002 Base Year - Updated HD Emissions

SJV NOx Emissions (tpd) - 2002 Base Year - Updated HD Emissions

* Data copied from "X:\Assessments\tscheffelin\VMT Growth Analysis\EMFAC2011-HD Revised Results - June 6 2012 (Andy)\VMT_Growth_Analysis_results_revised\2002_default\

EMFAC2011HD Output - SC & SJV CYs 02 20 23 32 with 2002 Controls and Default VMT.xlsx

and "X:\Assessments\tscheffelin\VMT Growth Analysis\EMFAC2011-HD Revised Results - June 6 2012 (Andy)\VMT_Growth_Analysis_results_revised\2002\

EMFAC2011HD Output - South Coast & SJV CYs 2002 2020 2023 2032 with 2002 Controls and 2002 VMT Summary.xls
2012 2023** 2032

South Coast Air Basin 0 -3.00 -14.00

SJV Air Basin 0 -0.85 -4.32

2012 2023** 2032

South Coast Air Basin 0 -5.47 -15.59

SJV Air Basin 0 -1.90 -5.86

* Copied values from "X:\Assessments\tscheffelin\VMT Growth Analysis - October 2012\ACC Adjustment\South Coast and SJV ACC Adjustment - Oct 25 2012.xlsx" file

** Applied "2013 FTIP"/"SG Default" Ratios (cells D21 and D22) --- On March 22, 2013

Notes (from March 21, 2013):

1. From files Jason provided (located at "S:\Transportation\Conformity\San Joaquin Valley\CY 2012 Conformity Work\CA Files Sep12"), 

calculated the CY2023 "2013 FTIP" ROG and NOx emissions (cells B21 and B22).

2. Calculated a "scaling factor" for ROG and NOx (cells D21 and D22): ["2013 FTIP"/"SG Default"].

3. Applied the scaling factor to BOTH the emissions (cells B14 and B19) and the ACC Adjustment (cells C69 and C74).

4. Applied the "scaled" revised emissions to BOTH the "No New Measures with VMT Growth" (the red bar in the chart)

 and "Actual Emissions with Controls and VMT Growth" (the blue bar in the chart) for CY 2023.

Notes (June 13, 2013): Updated Chart ROG and Nox emissions to reflect No VMT Growth AND "No Population Growth and No New Trips".

NOx ACC Adjustments (TPD)

ROG ACC Adjustments (TPD)