Topical Fire reporT SerieS Volume 7, Issue 5 / February 2008

Fire Risk in 2004

continued on next page

These short topical reports are 

designed to explore facets of the 

U.S. fire problem as depicted 

through data collected in USFA’s 

National Fire Incident Reporting 

System (NFIRS). Each topical report 

briefly addresses the nature of the 

specific fire or fire-related topic, 

highlights important findings from 

the data, and may suggest other 

resources to consider for further 

information. 

Findings

■ Risk by age: Adults aged 45 and older have a greater risk of dying in fires than the general population. 

The elderly aged 85 and over have the highest risk of fire death. The risk of fire injury is greatest in the 

20 to 49 age range. Young adults aged 20 to 24 have the highest risk of fire injury.

■ Risk by gender: Men are 1.5 times more likely to die in a fire than women. 

■ Risk by race: African-Americans and American Indians/Alaska Natives are at much greater risk of 

death in a fire than the general population. 

■ Risk by region: The risk of dying in a fire in the South is higher than in other regions of the United States.

■ Risk by economic factor: Populations at the lowest income levels are at a greater risk of dying in a 

fire than those with higher incomes. 

The risk from fire is not the same for everyone. Nearly 

4,000 deaths and 17,875 injuries in the United States 

were caused by fire in 2004.1

 These casualties were not distributed equally across the U.S. population, and the resulting 

risk of death or injury from fire is not uniform—it is more 

severe for some groups than for others. Much can be learned 

from understanding why different segments of society are 

at heightened risk from the fire problem. This Topical Fire 

Report explores fire risk as it applies to fire casualties in the 

U.S. population. It is an update to Fire Risk, Volume 4, Issue 7.

Risk is a factor, element, or course of action involving 

uncertainty. It is an exposure to some peril, and it often 

implies a probability of occurrence, such as investment risk 

or insurance risk. In terms of the fire problem, risk is the 

potential for injury or death of a person or damage or loss 

to property. 

This topical report focuses on how fire risk, specifically 

the risk of death and injury, varies with age, and how 

other demographic and socioeconomic factors weigh 

upon that risk.

Per Capita Rates, Risk, and Fire Casualties 

When determining fire risk, age, geographic, demographic, 

and socioeconomic factors all come into play. People in the 

South, older adults (aged 65 and over), the very young, and 

the poor all are at higher risk of being injured in a fire than 

the rest of the population. Males, African-Americans, and 

American Indians/Alaska Natives have a considerably higher 

risk of death or injury from fire than does the population as 

a whole. These groups have remained at higher risk despite 

considerable long-term reductions in fires and fire casualties. 

Fire casualties across population groups can be assessed in 

several ways. The simplest method is to look at the distribution of the numbers of deaths or injuries across the factor 

of interest. In the case of age, the number of fire deaths is 

greatest for the very young, the very old, and older middleaged adults, while most fire injuries occur among adults 

under age 50.2

 In the case of race, the number of fire deaths 

is greatest for white Americans and least for American 

Indians/Alaska Natives. 

Although these findings are informative, they do not 

account for differences in the basic population groups 

under comparison. In the case of age, as an age group 

matures its population decreases as a result of deaths and 

fatal injuries.3

 In the case of race, there are far fewer AsianAmericans, for example, than white Americans living in 

the United States. As a consequence, it is possible for an age 

group to have greater (or fewer) injuries or deaths because 

the sheer number of individuals possible to be injured is 

larger (or smaller) than other groups. 

U.S. Department of Homeland Security • U.S. Fire Administration

National Fire Data Center • Emmitsburg, Maryland 21727

www.usfa.dhs.gov/statistics/reports/index.shtm
TFRS Volume 7, Issue 5/Fire Risk in 2004 Page 2

To account for population differences such as these, per 

capita rates are used. Per capita rates use a common population size, which then permits comparisons among different 

groups.4

 Perhaps the most useful way to assess fire casualties 

across groups is to determine the relative risk of dying or 

being injured. Relative risk compares the per capita rate for 

a particular group (e.g., females) to the overall per capita 

rate (i.e., the general population). The result is a measure of 

how likely a group is to be affected. 

For the general population, the relative risk is set at 1. The 

relative risk of dying in a fire for the total population of 

females in comparison to the total population is 0.8, which 

is equivalent to the per capita fire death rate for females 

(10.6) divided by the per capita fire death rate for the entire 

population (13.6). Thus the relative risk of a female dying 

from fire is 20% less than that of the total population. 

Age and Risk of Fire Casualty 

When physical and cognitive abilities are limited, as is often 

the case for the very young and the very old, the risk of 

death and injury from fire rises. Older adults experience 

large numbers of fire deaths in a small population group. As 

a result, the risk for the elderly of dying in a fire is 2.6 times 

higher than for the population as a whole, and rises even 

more for the oldest segment (Figure 1). Individuals aged 

65 to 74 are 1.7 times more likely to die in a fire than the 

general population, while those adults aged 85 or older are 

4.7 times more likely to suffer fire-related deaths. Increasing 

frailty and infirmity accompany aging, and the tendency of 

fire death and injury risk to rise with greater age is not surprising.5

 Approximately 2,025 older adults (65 and older) 

were injured and 1,265 died in fires in 2004.6

Figure 1. Relative Risk of Fire Death by Age, 2004.

continued on next page

Source: National Center for Health Statistics and U.S. Census Bureau.

Note: Data have been adjusted to account for deaths with unknown age.
TFRS Volume 7, Issue 5/Fire Risk in 2004 Page 3

Figure 2. Relative Risk of Injury by Age, 2004.

Source: National Fire Incident Reporting System (NFIRS), National Fire Protection Association (NFPA), and U.S. Census Bureau.

Note: Data have been adjusted to account for injuries with unknown age.

continued on next page

Children also experience high numbers of fire deaths. 

Though the risk of death for children from birth to age 14 

is slightly below the risk to the population as a whole, some 

groups of children are more at risk than others. For children under the age of 5, the risk of fire death is equivalent 

to that of the general population (Figure 1). As children 

mature and their cognitive and social abilities develop, the 

risk of fire death drops sharply. In 2004, children between 

ages 5 and 9 had two-thirds of the risk of fire death of their 

younger counterparts; children between 10 and 14 have 

half that of the group aged 5 to 9. Of the youngest, AfricanAmerican and American Indian/Alaska Native children are 

most threatened. Children aged 4 and under also have a 

greater relative risk of injury from fire (Figure 2) than their 

older counterparts.7

 Approximately 2,000 children (14 and 

younger) were injured and 560 killed in fires in 2004. 

After age 19, the risk of fire death increases. In 2004, by age 

45, the risk of death is above average, and it continues to 

increase sharply as the population ages. Although the overall 

numbers change, these profiles have remained relatively 

constant from year to year, according to the National Center 

for Health Statistics (NCHS) and U.S. Census Bureau data. 

The age profile of risk for fire injuries is very different from 

that for deaths (Figure 2), with a much narrower range of 

risk quotients (0.4 to 1.4 versus 0.3 to 4.7 for fire deaths).8

This difference is thought to be the result of both cognitive 

and mobility issues that affect children and older adults. As 

a result, children and older adults are less likely to escape 

the effects of fire and thus suffer fatal injuries. Middle-aged 

individuals tend to suffer nonfatal injuries—in 2004, most 

fire injuries occurred among 30- to 44-year-olds, with a 
TFRS Volume 7, Issue 5/Fire Risk in 2004 Page 4

spike in the 20- to 24-year-olds.9 In terms of risk in 2004, 

the risk of injury in a fire is highest for young adults aged 

20 to 24, followed by midlife adults aged 30 to 39. The risk 

of injury is well below average for children under age 15, 

and at or below average for adults over age 50 (Figure 2).

Other Factors That Influence Risk 

In the U.S. Fire Administration’s (USFA’s) report Socioeconomic 

Factors and the Incidence of Fire,

10 socioeconomic studies show 

an inverse relationship between fire risk and income. The 

poorer population groups have the highest risk of fire injury 

or death, while the wealthiest have the lowest. Many elderly 

people live alone on meager incomes, often in substandard 

housing stock.11 Closely tied to income is level of education. Numerous studies, including those associated with the 

No Child Left Behind legislation, have demonstrated that 

groups living in persistent poverty—that is, with income 

levels below the poverty line for long periods of time—

score poorly in educational testing, have higher high school 

dropout rates, and reduced employment opportunities.

Geographic location also has an effect (Table 1). There is a 

greater risk of dying in a fire in the South (30%) than other 

regions.12 This is, in part, attributed to the intermittent need 

for heating. Rather than including central heating systems as 

in northern areas, many households in the South use portable heating devices. By their nature, such heating strategies 

are more likely to lead to a fire problem. Conversely, the 

West has a much lower risk of fire death. This reduction may 

be due, in part, to the role of heating (or lack of) in fire 

deaths, housing stock characteristics, and other factors. 

continued on next page

Table 1. Relative Risk by Geographic Area, 2004.

Region Population Fire Deaths

Death Rate 

per Million Population Relative Risk

Northeast 54,586,281 637 11.7 0.9

Midwest 65,682,645 908 13.8 1.0

South 105,991,954 1,871 17.7 1.3

West 67,377,278 577 8.6 0.6

Overall U.S. 293,638,158 3,993 13.6 1.0

Sources: National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS), 2004 Mortality Data; and Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau: Table 1: Annual Estimates of the Population for the United States, Regions, and States and for 

Puerto Rico: April 1, 2000 to July 1, 2006 (NST-EST2006-01). 

Note: Relative risk may not compute due to rounding. 

Like age, gender plays a role in the risk of death or injury 

from fire. For virtually all age groups, males are more likely 

to die in a fire-related incident (Table 2, Table 3, and Table 

4). Overall, in 2004, men were 1.5 times more likely to 

die in a fire than women. USFA data from the National Fire 

Incident Reporting System (NFIRS) also show that men, 

overall, are about 1.5 times more likely to suffer injuries 

than their female counterparts. Why this is so is subject to 

speculation. Men may be more willing to take risks than 

women, and this behavior could account for some of the 

difference. Previous NFIRS data indicate that more men than 

women will try to extinguish a fire. This action alone could 

account for much of the difference in injury rates. 

Race, which may be related to societal factors, cannot be 

ignored. African-Americans and American Indians/Alaska 

Natives have noticeably higher death rates per capita than 

the national average. African-Americans comprise a large 

and disproportionate share of total fire deaths, accounting 

for 24% of fire deaths in 2004, but only 13% of the U.S. 

population.13 In 2004, African-Americans had nearly twice 

the relative risk of dying than the general population. For 

American Indians/Alaska Natives that year, the relative risk 

also was elevated: 60% higher than the overall risk. By contrast, Asian-Americans are much less likely than the overall 

population to die in a fire.
TFRS Volume 7, Issue 5/Fire Risk in 2004 Page 5

Table 2. Relative Risk of Fire Death by Race and Gender, 2004, 

Overall Population.

Gender/Race Population Fire Deaths

Death Rate

per Million Population Relative Risk

Total 293,638,158 3,993 13.6 1.0

Male 144,467,272 2,408 16.7 1.2

Female 149,170,886 1,585 10.6 0.8

White 236,036,395 2,901 12.3 0.9

African-American 37,472,889 950 25.4 1.9

American Indian/

Alaska Native 2,824,946 60 21.2 1.6

Asian/Pacific 12,861,012 82 6.4 0.5

White Male 116,775,115 1,757 15.0 1.1

African-American Male 17,846,560 570 31.9 2.3

American Indian/

Alaska Native Male 1,414,583 38 26.9 2.0

Asian/Pacific Male 6,244,524 43 6.9 0.5

White Female 119,261,280 1,144 9.6 0.7

African-American Female 19,626,329 380 19.4 1.4

American Indian/

Alaska Native Female 1,410,363 22 15.6 1.1

Asian/Pacific Female 6,616,488 39 5.9 0.4

Sources: See References at the end of the report.

Notes: The overall male and female estimates include individuals with “2+ races” per the Census. The “2+ races” category accounts for approximately 1.5 percent of the population. NCHS does not include this race 

category. Thus, the population estimates for the individual race categories will not sum to the total population estimate.

Relative risk may not compute due to rounding. 
TFRS Volume 7, Issue 5/Fire Risk in 2004 Page 6

Table 3. Relative Risk of Fire Death by Age, Race, and Gender, 2004, 

Children (Birth to Age 14).

Gender/Race Population Fire Deaths

Death Rate

per Million Population Relative Risk

Total 60,836,501 558 9.2 0.7

Male 31,132,191 314 10.1 0.7

Female 29,704,310 244 8.2 0.6

White 46,446,923 317 6.8 0.5

African-American 9,407,112 212 22.5 1.7

American Indian/

Alaska Native 706,524 13 18.4 1.4

Asian/Pacific 2,515,376 16 6.4 0.5

White Male 23,822,531 182 7.6 0.6

African-American Male 4,774,206 117 24.5 1.8

American Indian/

Alaska Native Male 358,833 9 25.1 1.8

Asian/Pacific Male 1,282,229 6 4.7 0.3

White Female 22,624,392 135 6.0 0.4

African-American Female 4,632,906 95 20.5 1.5

American Indian/

Alaska Native Female 347,691 4 11.5 0.8

Asian/Pacific Female 1,233,147 10 8.1 0.6

Sources: See References at the end of the report.

Notes: The overall male and female estimates include individuals with “2+ races” per the Census. The “2+ races” category accounts for approximately 1.5 percent of the population. NCHS does not include this race 

category. Thus, the population estimates for the individual race categories will not sum to the total population estimate.

Relative risk may not compute due to rounding. 
TFRS Volume 7, Issue 5/Fire Risk in 2004 Page 7

Table 4. Relative Risk of Fire Death by Age, Race, and Gender, 2004, 

Older Adults (Aged 65+). 

Gender/Race Population Fire Deaths

Death Rate

per Million Population Relative Risk

Total 36,309,400 1,263 34.8 2.6

Male 15,157,782 664 43.8 3.2

Female 21,151,618 599 28.3 2.1

White 31,786,451 970 30.5 2.2

African-American 3,046,789 266 87.3 6.4

American Indian/

Alaska Native 181,260 12 66.2 4.9

Asian/Pacific 1,076,331 15 13.9 1.0

White Male 13,358,167 515 38.6 2.8

African-American Male 1,167,494 139 119.1 8.8

American Indian/

Alaska Native Male 79,090 5 63.2 4.6

Asian/Pacific Male 460,426 5 10.9 0.8

White Female 18,428,284 455 24.7 1.8

African-American Female 1,879,295 127 67.6 5.0

American Indian/

Alaska Native Female 102,170 7 68.5 5.0

Asian/Pacific Female 615,905 10 16.2 1.2

Sources: See References at the end of the report.

Notes: The overall male and female estimates include individuals with “2+ races” per the Census. The “2+ races” category accounts for approximately 1.5 percent of the population. NCHS does not include this race 

category. Thus, the population estimates for the individual race categories will not sum to the total population estimate.

Relative risk may not compute due to rounding. 

Conclusion 

The very young and the very old are some of the Nation’s 

most vulnerable residents. These high-risk groups merit 

special attention to reduce their risk of injury or death from 

fire. With an aging population, the U.S. demographic profile 

is changing rapidly. The elderly population is expected to 

increase from its current 12.5% of the total population to 

nearly 20% by midcentury,14 with an assumed corresponding increase in fire deaths and injuries among older adults. 

Because children and older adults account for 46% of fire 

deaths and 22% of fire injuries, the USFA has been working toward the goal of reducing fire deaths and injuries to 

children and older adults. A number of resources to help 

address the fire problem for children and adults are available. USFA’s fire safety campaign for babies and toddlers at 

http://www.usfaparents.gov provides parents with home 

strategies ranging from the control of matches and lighters 

to home escape planning to protect young children from 

fire. For adults, A Fire Safety Campaign for People 50-Plus 

continued on next page
TFRS Volume 7, Issue 5/Fire Risk in 2004 Page 8

(http://www.usfa.dhs.gov/campaigns/50plus/) addresses 

lifestyle strategies of safe smoking, safe cooking, and safe 

heating to reduce the incidence of fires that traditionally 

affect older adults. For further information, see the USFA 

Web site (http://www.usfa.dhs.gov) or contact your local 

fire department.

To request additional information or to comment on this report, 

visit http://www.usfa.dhs.gov/applications/feedback/index.jsp

References: 

Sources for Table 2, Table 3, and Table 4:

National Center for Health Statistics, 2004 Mortality Data; 

and U.S. population estimates from the Population Division, 

U.S. Census Bureau, http://www.census.gov/popest/

national/asrh/:

Table 1: Annual Estimates of the Population for the United 

States, Regions, and States and for Puerto Rico: April 1, 

2000 to July 1, 2006 (NST-EST2006-01); 

Table 1: Annual Estimates of the Population by Five-Year Age 

Groups and Sex for the United States: April 1, 2000 to July 

1, 2006 (NC-EST2006-01); 

Table 3: Annual Estimates of the Population by Sex, Race, and 

Hispanic or Latino Origin for the United States: April 1, 

2000 to July 1, 2006 (NC-EST2006-03); 

Table 4: Annual Estimates of the White Alone Population by Age 

and Sex for the United States: April 1, 2000 to July 1, 2006 

(NC-EST2006-04-WA); 

Table 4: Annual Estimates of the Black or African-American 

Alone Population by Age and Sex for the United States: April 

1, 2000 to July 1, 2006 (NC-EST2006-04-BA); 

Table 4: Annual Estimates of the American Indian and Alaska 

Native Alone Population by Age and Sex for the United 

States: April 1, 2000 to July 1, 2006 (NC-EST2006-04-IA); 

Table 4: Annual Estimates of the Asian Alone Population by Age 

and Sex for the United States: April 1, 2000 to July 1, 2006 

(NC-EST2006-04-AA); and

Table 4: Annual Estimates of the Native Hawaiian and Other 

Pacific Islander Alone Population by Age and Sex for the 

United States: April 1, 2000 to July 1, 2006 (NC-EST2006-

04-NA).

1 Fire deaths are extracted from the 2004 NCHS mortality 

data using International Classification of Disease (ICD) codes 

F63.1,W39−W40, X00−X09, X75−76, X96−97, Y25−26, and 

Y35.1 where these codes were noted as either the underlying 

cause of death or a contributing factor in the chain of events leading to death. Under these criteria, 3,993 deaths were extracted. 

Only deaths where age was specified were used in the analyses 

in the relative risk tables. Estimates of fire injuries are from the 

National Fire Protection Association’s (NFPA’s) annual survey. 

2 Fire in the United States 1995–2004, U.S. Fire Administration (USFA), 

Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), 14th Edition. 

3 Immigration and changes in U.S. overseas populations have 

an additive effect on a static population group in the early and 

midlife years. Over the lifespan of the population group, however, 

death rates have a larger, decreasing effect.

4 Per capita rates are determined by the number of deaths or 

injuries occurring to a specific population group divided by the 

total population for that group. This ratio then is multiplied by 

a common population size. For the purposes of this report, per 

capita rates for fire deaths and injuries are measured per 1 million persons. For example, the per capita fire death rate for the 

total female population is computed from the total number of 

female fire deaths (1,585) divided by the total female population (149,170,886) multiplied by 1,000,000 persons. This rate is 

equivalent to 10.6 deaths per 1 million population. 

5 See both The Fire Risk to Older Adults, Topical Report Vol. 4, Issue 9, 

December 2004; and Fire Risk to Older Adults in 2004, Topical Report 

Vol. 7, Issue 7, February 2008.

6Numbers of fire deaths are extracted from NCHS mortality data 

using the ICD codes noted previously. Estimates of fire injuries are 

calculated by determining the percent of injuries from the NFIRS 

data and applying the percentage to the NFPA estimate of fire 

injuries. Deaths are rounded to the nearest 5; injuries are rounded 

to the nearest 25.

7 See also The Fire Risk to Children, Topical Report Vol. 4, Issue 8, 

December 2004; and Fire Risk to Children in 2004, Topical Report Vol. 

7, Issue 6, February 2008.

8 Estimates of injuries by age are derived from 2004 NFIRS civilian fire casualty age data (version 5.0) in conjunction with 2004 

NFPA estimates of overall fire injuries.

9 Fire in the United States 1995–2004, USFA, FEMA, 14th Edition.

10 Socioeconomic Factors and the Incidence of Fire, USFA, FA 170, June 1997.

11 Ibid.

12The regions of the United States are defined by the U.S. Census 

Bureau as the: Northeast (Connecticut, Massachusetts, Maine, 

New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode 

Island, Vermont); South (Alabama, Arkansas, Delaware, District 

of Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, 

Mississippi, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, 

Texas, Virginia, West Virginia); Midwest (Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, 

Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, 

Ohio, South Dakota, Wisconsin); West (Alaska, Arizona, California, 

Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, 

Utah, Washington, Wyoming).

13 Statistics are based on U.S. Census Bureau population estimates 

for July 2004.

14 U.S. Census Bureau population estimates as referenced in Fire and 

the Older Adult, USFA, FA 300, January 2006.