U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy and Winter Fuels Outlook October 2015 1

October 2015

Short-Term Energy and Winter Fuels Outlook (STEO)

Highlights

 EIA projects average U.S. household expenditures for natural gas, heating oil, and propane 

during the upcoming winter heating season (October 1 through March 31) will be 10%, 25%, 

and 18% lower, respectively, than last winter, because of lower fuel prices and lower 

heating demand. Forecast lower heating demand and relatively unchanged prices contribute 

to electricity expenditures that are 3% lower than last winter (Winter Fuels Outlook 

slideshow).

 North Sea Brent crude oil prices averaged $48/barrel (b) in September, a $1/b increase from 

August. However, volatility remained high during September. EIA forecasts that Brent crude 

oil prices will average $54/b in 2015 and $59/b in 2016, unchanged from last month’s STEO. 

Forecast West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices average $4/b lower than the Brent 

price in 2015 and $5/b lower in 2016. The current values of futures and options contracts 

for January 2016 delivery (Market Prices and Uncertainty Report) suggest the market 

expects WTI prices to range from $32/b to $67/b (at the 95% confidence interval) in January 

2016. 

 U.S. regular gasoline monthly retail prices averaged $2.37/gallon (gal) in September, a 

decrease of 27 cents/gal from August and $1.04/gal lower than in September 2014. EIA 

expects monthly gasoline prices to decline to an average of $2.03/gal in December 2015. EIA 

forecasts U.S. regular gasoline retail prices to average $2.38/gal in 2016.

 EIA estimates that total U.S. crude oil production declined by 120,000 barrels per day (b/d) 

in September compared with August. Crude oil production is forecast to decrease through 

mid-2016 before growth resumes late in 2016. Projected U.S. crude oil production averages 

9.2 million b/d in 2015 and 8.9 million b/d in 2016. 

 Natural gas working inventories were 3,538 billion cubic feet (Bcf) on September 25. This 

level was 15% higher than a year ago and 4% higher than the previous five-year average 

(2010-14) for this week. EIA projects inventories will close the injection season at the end of 

October at 3,956 Bcf, which would be the highest end-of-October level on record.
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy and Winter Fuels Outlook October 2015 2

Projected Winter Fuel Expenditures by Fuel and Region

The average household winter heating fuel expenditures discussed in this STEO provide a broad 

guide to changes compared with last winter. However, fuel expenditures for individual 

households are highly dependent on the size and energy efficiency of individual homes and their 

heating equipment, thermostat settings, local weather conditions, and market size (see Winter 

Fuels Outlook table). Expected temperatures based on the latest forecasts from the National 

Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) are much warmer than last winter east of the 

Rocky Mountains, with the Northeast 13% warmer, the Midwest 11% warmer, and the South 8% 

warmer. Given the current indicators signaling a strong El Nino/Southern Oscillation, forecast 

temperatures across much of the United States are projected to be warmer than the 10-year 

average. However, the past two winters provide a reminder that weather can be unpredictable,

and the Winter Fuels Outlook includes forecasts for scenarios where heating degree days (HDD) 

in all regions may be 10% higher (colder) or 10% lower (warmer) than forecast. 

Natural Gas. Nearly half of all U.S. households heat with natural gas, and the average household 

could expect a 10% decrease in natural gas expenditures this winter compared with last winter 

given EIA’s base case for temperatures. EIA forecasts a 6% decline in residential natural gas 

consumption this winter as temperatures are expected to be warmer than last winter. 

Additionally, residential prices for natural gas this winter are forecast to be 4% lower than last 

winter. 

Although EIA forecasts Henry Hub spot prices this winter will average 13% less than last winter, 

changes in spot prices do not quickly translate into lower delivered residential prices. The rates 

utilities charge for delivered natural gas can be set by state utility commissions a year or more in 

advance and reflect the cost of gas purchased over many months. Also, residential prices include 

a fixed component to cover utility operating costs and the cost to transport the natural gas.

Under a 10% colder scenario, EIA projects natural gas consumption to be 1% higher than last 

year, but expenditures would still be 4% lower than last year. Under a 10% warmer scenario, EIA 

expects declines of 14% in consumption and 17% in expenditures compared with last year. 

Natural gas inventories have risen consistently during the storage injection season that typically 

runs from April through the end of October. EIA projects inventories will total 3,956 Bcf at the 

end of October, which would be a record high going into the heating season. Strong storage 

injections this summer reflect high summer production and expanded storage capacity. If early 

fall heating demand is low, it is possible that inventories could top 4,000 Bcf during November. 

Under the base case winter forecast, EIA expects inventories to end the winter at 1,892 Bcf.

Even in the event of another cold winter, EIA does not expect stocks to fall below 1,000 Bcf by 

the end of this heating season.

Transportation constraints continue to pose a challenge to markets in the Northeast. Over the 

past two winters, natural gas-fired power plants in the Northeast had to compete for an 

increasingly limited amount of available natural gas pipeline capacity from a system that was 

already constrained, particularly in New England and New York. These constraints contributed to 
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy and Winter Fuels Outlook October 2015 3

spikes in natural gas spot prices at regional hubs and, consequently, day-ahead power prices

during periods when temperatures were extremely cold. Some pipeline capacity has been added 

to deliver natural gas from the Marcellus region in Pennsylvania to the New York market. 

However, pipeline constraints still exist in the Northeast, particularly into the New England 

market, and day-to-day price volatility is likely. 

New England has two important marginal sources of natural gas supply for times of very high 

demand: liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports and pipeline imports from Canada. Although LNG 

imports have declined dramatically in the past several years, an LNG terminal near Boston still 

receives cargoes from Trinidad under long-term contracts. One of the terminal’s customers is 

the adjacent Mystic Power Plant. LNG received at the Canaport LNG terminal in New Brunswick, 

Nova Scotia, also comes to New England via the Brunswick Pipeline. 

Heating Oil. EIA expects households heating primarily with heating oil to spend an average of 

$459 (25%) less this winter than last winter, reflecting retail prices that are 47 cents/gal (15%) 

lower and consumption that is 11% lower. In the 10%-colder-weather scenario, projected 

expenditures are $288 lower than last winter, with prices that are 39 cents/gal lower than last 

winter.

Heating oil prices are expected to be lower than last winter because of lower forecast crude oil 

prices and a relatively soft global distillate market compared with recent years. The Brent crude 

oil price is forecast to average $52/b this winter, which would be $13/b (32 cents per gallon) 

lower than last winter. Brent crude oil prices are forecast to remain below levels in recent years 

as the global oil market continues to experience an excess of supply to consumption. However, 

crude oil prices are highly uncertain, and any deviation in crude oil prices from forecast levels 

would cause a similar deviation in retail heating oil prices and consumer expenditures.

Distillate fuel supplies are also ample heading into the winter. Slowing economic growth in 

emerging economies, which have been major drivers of distillate consumption in recent years, 

has reduced growth in global demand for distillate fuel. Additionally, relatively strong gasoline 

refining margins during the past summer encouraged record-high global refinery runs. This 

combination of high refinery runs and slowing demand growth has resulted in high inventory 

levels in major distillate markets including Asia, northwest Europe, and the northeast United 

States. 

Distillate stocks in the Northeast totaled 45.1 million barrels on September 25, the highest for 

any week since late 2011. Reliance on heating oil is highest in the Northeast, where 23% of 

households use oil for space heating. Nationwide, only 5% of households use heating oil. 

Propane. About 4% of all U.S. households heat primarily with propane. EIA expects these 

households to spend less this winter, but the projected decrease varies across regions. EIA 

expects that households heating with propane in the Midwest will spend an average of $320

(21%) less this winter than last winter, reflecting prices that are about 13% lower and 

consumption that is 9% lower than last winter. Households in the Northeast are expected to 
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy and Winter Fuels Outlook October 2015 4

spend an average of $342 (15%) less this winter, with average prices that are about 5% lower 

and consumption that is 11% lower than last winter. 

Heading into the winter months, U.S. inventories of propane and propylene reached 98.7 million 

barrels as of September 25, the highest level since EIA began collecting weekly propane 

inventory statistics in 1993 and 19 million barrels higher than at the same time last year. Primary 

propane stocks at the end of September in the Gulf Coast (PADD 3) were 18.9 million barrels 

(45%) higher than at the same time last year, and Midwest (PADD 2) stocks were almost 1.0

million barrels (3%) lower.

Inventories on the Gulf Coast have been the main contributor to the record high storage levels, 

with propane inventories in that region 84% above the five-year average for the week ending 

September 25. Much of this storage is at facilities connected to industrial users and export 

terminals, and transport of the propane to the Midwest and Northeast is often costly. Outside of 

the Gulf Coast, propane inventories in the rest of United States were 8% above the five-year 

average on September 25. Higher inventory levels and improved rail delivery networks for 

propane should contribute to more robust propane supply chains than two years ago, when the 

Midwest saw prices spike during extremely cold weather. However, local markets could still see 

tight supply conditions, particularly in cases of severely cold temperatures.

Electricity. Households heating primarily with electricity are forecast to spend an average of $30

(3%) less this winter, as a result of 1% lower residential electricity prices and 2% lower

consumption than last winter. About 39% of all U.S. households rely on electricity as their 

primary heating source, ranging regionally from 15% in the Northeast to 63% in the South.

Under a 10% colder scenario, EIA estimates that U.S. residential electricity consumption this 

winter would be 1% higher than during the winter of 2014-15. Residential electricity prices 

would not rise immediately, but the effect of colder temperatures would pass through to retail 

electricity rates over the succeeding months of 2016. Expenditures in the 10% colder scenario 

are forecast to be flat compared with last winter. The effect of colder temperatures on 

electricity prices would be greatest in New England, where residential prices would be relatively

flat next year if there is a cold winter, in contrast to the baseline forecast of a 0.9% decline.

Two winters ago (2013-14), a winter freeze in the Northeast and constraints on supplying 

natural gas to power generators led to price spikes on regional wholesale electricity markets. 

The power industry in New England has recently become more reliant on natural gas for 

electricity generation, which could put generation fuel supplies in competition with natural gas 

used for space heating during cold spells. Power generators have been working to secure more 

fuel supplies through contracts before the winter months begin, in contrast to previous years. 

However, New England’s natural gas pipeline capacity continues to be constrained, and any 

significant disruption to natural gas supply during a cold period could again lead to temporary 

spikes in wholesale electricity prices.

Wood. The use of cord wood and wood pellets as the primary residential space heating fuel has 

increased by 33% since 2005, to about 2.6 million households in 2014. About 8% of households 
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy and Winter Fuels Outlook October 2015 5

use wood as a secondary source of heat, making wood second only to electricity as a 

supplemental heating fuel. 

About 20% of homes in New England (1.1 million) used wood for space heating, water heating,

or cooking in 2009 (EIA, Residential Energy Consumption Survey 2009), which is nearly twice the 

national rate. Almost half of all rural households in New England used wood, compared with 

only 12% of the region’s urban households.

Global Petroleum and Other Liquids

Global liquids production continues to outpace consumption, leading to strong inventory builds 

throughout the forecast period. Global oil inventory builds in the second quarter of 2015 

averaged 2.3 million b/d, compared with 1.8 million b/d in the first quarter of the year. The pace 

of inventory builds is expected to slow in the second half of the year, to roughly 1.5 million b/d. 

In 2016, inventory builds are expected to slow to an average of 0.8 million b/d.

Global Petroleum and Other Liquids Consumption. EIA estimates global consumption of 

petroleum and other liquids grew by 1.2 million b/d in 2014, averaging 92.4 million b/d for the 

year. EIA expects global consumption of petroleum and other liquids to grow by 1.3 million b/d 

in 2015 and by 1.4 million b/d in 2016. Projected real gross domestic product (GDP) weighted 

for oil consumption, which increased by 2.8% in 2014, is projected to grow by 2.4% in 2015 and 

by 2.8% in 2016. 

Consumption of petroleum and other liquids in countries outside of the Organization for 

Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) grew by 1.4 million b/d in 2014 and is 

projected to grow by 0.9 million b/d in 2015 and by 1.2 million b/d in 2016. China continues to 

be the main driver of non-OECD oil consumption growth, despite the slowdown in the country’s 

economic growth beginning in the second half of 2014 and with continuing signs of weakening 

in its economy. China’s consumption growth is expected to average 0.3 million b/d in 2015 and 

in 2016, below the 0.4 million b/d growth in 2014. Iran is expected to experience an uptick in 

economic activity and petroleum consumption in 2016, assuming implementation of the Joint 

Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) between Iran and the five permanent members of the 

United Nations Security Council plus Germany (P5+1) announced on July 14.

After falling by 0.3 million b/d in 2014, OECD petroleum and other liquids consumption is 

expected to rise by 0.5 million b/d in 2015 and by 0.2 million b/d in 2016, reaching an average of 

46.4 million b/d, the highest annual average level of OECD consumption since 2010. The 

increase in 2015 stems from both economic and weather factors, with the United States 

contributing most of the annual consumption growth. U.S. consumption is expected to grow by 

an average of 0.3 million b/d in 2015 and by 0.1 million b/d in 2016. Several other OECD 

countries saw economic conditions improve as they emerged from recessions, particularly 

countries in Asia and, to a lesser extent, in Europe. In addition, colder-than-normal weather 

early in 2015 across OECD Europe contributed to a projected 0.1 million b/d increase in 

consumption in 2015.
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy and Winter Fuels Outlook October 2015 6

Non‐OPEC Petroleum and Other Liquids Supply. EIA estimates that petroleum and other liquids 

production in countries outside of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) 

grew by 2.3 million b/d in 2014, which mainly reflects production growth in the United States. 

EIA expects non-OPEC production to grow by 1.3 million b/d in 2015, but to remain roughly flat 

in 2016. Non-OPEC production growth in 2015 is largely attributable to investments made when 

oil prices were higher. For example, the decisions to invest in the Golden Eagle, Peregrine, and 

Kinnoull fields in the United Kingdom’s (U.K.) sector of the North Sea were made in the second 

half of 2011 when Brent crude prices were more than $100/b. The three fields started producing 

at the end of 2014 and the beginning of 2015, contributing about 90,000 b/d to U.K. production 

in May 2015. Redirection of investment is also helping to maintain or grow production levels in

non-OPEC producing countries. Companies have reduced exploration investment, and are 

directing a greater share of investment toward currently producing fields. This redirection of 

investment helps maintain production levels in the short term, but could result in lower future

production.

Production growth in Canada is expected to average 0.1 million b/d in 2015 and 0.3 million in 

2016. Canadian production growth in 2015 is about 0.2 million b/d lower than forecast last 

month, which reflects significant revisions to historical data from the second quarter of 2015, 

along with delays in some previously announced oil sands projects. Although some oil sands 

projects have been put on hold, most continue as planned, including Imperial Oil and Cenovus 

oil sands projects scheduled to come online by the end of 2016. 

Unplanned supply disruptions among non-OPEC producers averaged 0.9 million b/d in 

September, an increase of almost 0.2 million b/d from the previous month.

OPEC Petroleum and Other Liquids Supply. EIA estimates that OPEC crude oil production 

averaged 30.1 million b/d in 2014, relatively unchanged from the previous year. Crude oil 

production declines in Libya, Angola, Algeria, and Kuwait offset production growth in Iraq and 

Iran. EIA forecasts OPEC crude oil production to increase by 0.8 million b/d in 2015 and to 

remain relatively flat in 2016. Iraq is expected to be the largest contributor to OPEC production 

growth in 2015. In 2016, additional OPEC crude oil supply is expected to come from Iran, which 

is forecast to increase production if international sanctions targeting its oil sector are 

suspended. 

Under the JCPOA between the P5+1 and Iran that was announced on July 14, sanctions relief is 

contingent on verification by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) that Iran has 

complied with key nuclear-related steps. 

While much uncertainty remains as to the timing of sanctions relief, EIA assumes 

implementation occurs in the second quarter of 2016, clearing the way to easing the sanctions

at that time. As a result, EIA forecasts Iranian crude oil supplies will increase by more than 0.2

million b/d on average in 2016, reaching roughly 0.5 million b/d by the end of the year.

Saudi Arabia and other OPEC member countries are not expected to reduce production to 

accommodate additional Iranian volumes, although some producers will see production declines
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy and Winter Fuels Outlook October 2015 7

in the near term. For example, Saudi Arabia’s production is expected to respond to lower direct 

crude burn for electric power generation as seasonal power demand abates. However, there is 

considerable uncertainty regarding Iraq's ability to sustain its higher production and export 

levels, particularly in light of budgetary constraints that has prompted the Iraqi government to 

request international oil companies operating in the south to reduce spending plans next year.

OPEC noncrude liquids production, which averaged 6.3 million b/d in 2014, is expected to 

increase by 0.2 million b/d in 2015 and by 0.3 million b/d in 2016, led by production increases in 

Iran, Qatar, and Kuwait.

In September, unplanned crude oil supply disruptions among OPEC producers averaged 2.9

million b/d, 0.1 million b/d less than the previous month because of fewer outages in Iraq and 

Nigeria. Kuwait and Saudi Arabia continue to have a total of 0.5 million b/d disrupted at the 

Wafra and Khafji fields in the Neutral Zone that straddles the two countries.

EIA revised higher its historical estimates of unplanned OPEC crude oil supply disruptions in 

2015. Iran’s crude oil supply disruption increased from 0.6 million b/d to 0.8 million b/d. The 

revision to Iran’s disruption reflects an increase to Iran’s crude oil production capacity (the level 

of supply that could be available within one year under a normal operating environment) based 

on information that Iran’s oil fields have gone through workovers in anticipation of a deal with 

the P5+1 on oil sanctions relief.

EIA expects OPEC surplus crude oil production capacity to average 1.5 million b/d in 2015 and 

2.2 million b/d in 2016, after averaging 2.0 million b/d in 2014. Forecast surplus capacity in 2016 

was revised upward by 0.2 million b/d from last month’s STEO. EIA estimates that Iran’s crude 

oil production capacity is 3.6 million b/d, which is 0.8 million b/d higher than its current 

estimated production level. EIA currently categorizes that 0.8 million b/d as a disruption 

because Iran’s production is restricted by sanctions that affect the country’s ability to sell its oil. 

However, if sanctions are lifted next year, any difference between its crude oil production 

capacity and its crude oil production level would henceforth be considered surplus capacity.

Surplus capacity is typically an indicator of market conditions, and surplus capacity below 2.5 

million b/d indicates a relatively tight oil market, but the current and forecast levels of global 

inventory builds make the projected low surplus capacity level in 2015 less significant.

OECD Petroleum Inventories. EIA estimates that OECD commercial crude oil and other liquids 

inventories totaled 2.70 billion barrels at the end of 2014, equivalent to roughly 59 days of 

consumption. Forecast OECD inventories rise to 2.95 billion barrels at the end of 2015 and then 

to 3.04 billion barrels at the end of 2016.

Crude Oil Prices. Brent crude oil spot prices increased by $1/b in September to a monthly 

average of $48/b. Along with increasing volatility in global equity prices and exchange rates, 

crude oil price volatility increased significantly in August, reflecting uncertainty about potential 

lower economic and oil demand growth in emerging market countries. Volatility remained high
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy and Winter Fuels Outlook October 2015 8

in September, with Brent spot prices increasing from $42/b on August 24 to $50/b on 

September 3, before falling back into the range of $45/b to $50/b for the rest of the month. 

Continuing increases in global liquids inventories have put significant downward pressure on 

prices. Inventories rose by an estimated 2.0 million b/d through the first three quarters of 2015, 

compared with an average build of 0.5 million b/d over the same period in 2014. However, 

global liquid fuels inventory builds fell to an estimated 1.2 million b/d in September. Inventory 

builds are projected to slow in the coming months, but they are expected to remain high 

compared with previous years. 

The monthly average WTI crude oil spot price increased to an average of $46/b in September, 

up $3/b from August, driven by falling U.S. crude oil output and five consecutive weeks of oil 

inventory draws at the Cushing, Oklahoma, storage hub. Crude oil inventories at Cushing fell to

53 million barrels on September 25, the lowest level since March 6 of this year, but they remain 

32 million barrels higher than at the same time last year. Total U.S. crude oil inventories were 

relatively flat in September, despite a decrease in U.S. refinery runs, as refinery maintenance 

season began. 

EIA projects the Brent crude oil price will average $54/b in 2015 and $59/b in 2016, unchanged 

from September’s STEO. WTI crude oil prices average $4/b lower than the Brent price in 2015 

and $5/b lower in 2016. EIA’s crude oil price forecast remains subject to significant uncertainties 

as the oil market moves toward balance. During this period of price discovery, oil prices could

continue to experience periods of heightened volatility. The oil market faces many uncertainties 

heading into 2016, including the pace and volume at which Iranian oil reenters the market, the 

strength of oil consumption growth, and the responsiveness of non-OPEC production to low oil 

prices. In the more immediate future, there is potential downward price pressure heading into 

the fourth quarter of 2015 if refinery runs drop by more than expected during the fall 

maintenance season. 

The current values of futures and options contracts continue to suggest high uncertainty in the 

price outlook (Market Prices and Uncertainty Report). WTI futures contracts for January 2016

delivery, traded during the five-day period ending October 1, averaged $46/b, while implied 

volatility averaged 43%. These levels established the lower and upper limits of the 95% 

confidence interval for the market's expectations of monthly average WTI prices in January 2016

at $32/b and $67/b, respectively. The 95% confidence interval for market expectations widens 

over time, with lower and upper limits of $26/b and $98/b for prices in December 2016. Last 

year at this time, WTI for January 2015 delivery averaged $91/b, and implied volatility averaged 

19%. The corresponding lower and upper limits of the 95% confidence interval were $76/b and 

$107/b. 

U.S. Petroleum and Other Liquids

The most recent data from the U.S. Federal Highway Administration show Americans drove a 

record 1.82 trillion miles during the first seven months of 2015, compared with the previous 
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy and Winter Fuels Outlook October 2015 9

high of 1.77 trillion miles driven in the first seven months of 2007, contributing to higher 

gasoline consumption in the United States. 

Monthly data show gasoline consumption in the United States increased by 3% during the first 

seven months of 2015 compared with same period during 2014. U.S. gasoline consumption 

growth reflects strong growth in employment and lower gasoline prices. Growing domestic 

consumption and strong gasoline consumption growth globally contributed to high refinery 

wholesale gasoline margins (the difference between the wholesale price of gasoline and the 

price of Brent crude oil) for most of 2015. Margins returned to more typical seasonal levels in 

September. U.S. average wholesale gasoline margins averaged 40 cents/gal in September, down 

24 cents/gal from the level in August and close to the September 2014 level. 

Regular gasoline retail prices fell across all regions in September, after refinery outages in the 

Midwest eased and imports of gasoline into the West Coast increased supplies in that region. 

U.S. average regular gasoline retail prices fell from $2.64/gal in August to $2.37/gal in 

September. Monthly average regional gasoline retail prices ranged from a low of $2.07/gal in 

PADD 3 (Gulf Coast) to a high of $2.96/gal in PADD 5 (West Coast). EIA expects gasoline prices to 

fall from current levels, with the U.S. regular gasoline price averaging $2.03/gal in December

2015.

Liquid Fuels Consumption. Total U.S. liquid fuels consumption is projected to increase by 

340,000 b/d (1.8%) in 2015, up from an increase of 140,000 b/d (0.8%) last year. U.S. 

consumption has been stimulated by continuing employment and economic growth and lower 

petroleum product prices.

Consumption growth in 2015 is led by motor gasoline, which increases by 190,000 b/d (2.1%) 

following growth of 80,000 b/d (0.9%) in 2014. Forecast gasoline consumption averages 9.1 

million b/d in 2015, the highest level since the peak of 9.3 million b/d in 2007. Although total 

nonfarm employment and total highway travel have increased by 2.9% and 3.4%, respectively, 

over the past eight years, improving vehicle fuel economy has steadily contributed to lower 

gasoline consumption. Gasoline consumption is forecast to remain flat in 2016, as a long-term 

trend toward vehicles that are more fuel efficient offsets the effect of continued economic 

growth on highway travel.

Jet fuel consumption, which grew by 40,000 b/d in 2014, is forecast to rise by 60,000 b/d (3.8%) 

in 2015. Forecast jet fuel consumption is roughly flat in 2016, with improvement in average 

airline fleet fuel economy offsetting continuing growth in freight and passenger travel.

Consumption of distillate fuel, which includes diesel fuel and heating oil, is forecast to fall by 

30,000 b/d (0.7%) in 2015 and then increase by 50,000 b/d (1.3%) in 2016. The 2016 growth is 

driven by increasing manufacturing output, foreign trade, and marine fuel use.

Hydrocarbon gas liquids (HGL) consumption, which fell by 50,000 b/d (1.9%) in 2014, is 

projected to increase by 70,000 b/d in 2015 and by 80,000 b/d in 2016, as new petrochemical 

plant capacity increases the use of HGL as a feedstock. New HGL export terminal capacity 
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy and Winter Fuels Outlook October 2015 10

contributes to an increase in HGL net exports from an average of 560,000 b/d in 2014 to 1.2

million b/d in 2016.

Liquid Fuels Supply. U.S. crude oil production is projected to increase from an average of 8.7 

million b/d in 2014 to 9.2 million b/d in 2015 and then decrease to 8.9 million b/d in 2016. The 

crude oil production forecast continues to reflect an oil price outlook that will weigh on oildirected rig counts and drilling and well completion activities throughout the forecast period. 

Based on the latest survey-based reporting of monthly crude oil production estimates, U.S. 

production averaged 9.4 million b/d in the first half of 2015. This level is 0.2 million b/d higher 

than the average production during the fourth quarter of 2014, despite a more than 60% 

decline in the total U.S. oil-directed rig count since October 2014. However, crude oil production 

started to decrease in the second quarter of 2015, beginning with Lower 48 onshore production 

in April. Although the Lower 48 onshore decline was offset by production gains in the Gulf of 

Mexico that kept total production growth positive in April, total U.S. production began declining 

in May. 

EIA expects U.S. crude oil production declines generally to continue through August 2016, when 

total production is forecast to average 8.7 million b/d. Forecast production begins rising in late 

2016, returning to an average of 9.0 million b/d in the fourth quarter. A total of 12 projects are 

scheduled to come online in the Gulf of Mexico in 2015 and 2016, pushing up production from 

an average of 1.4 million b/d in the fourth quarter of 2014 to more than 1.6 million b/d in the 

fourth quarter of 2016.

Expected crude oil production declines from May 2015 through mid-2016 are largely 

attributable to unattractive economic returns in some areas of both emerging and mature 

onshore oil production regions, as well as seasonal factors such as anticipated hurricane-related 

production disruptions in the Gulf of Mexico. Reductions in 2015 cash flows and capital 

expenditures have prompted companies to defer or redirect investment away from marginal 

exploration and research drilling to focus on core areas of major tight oil plays. Reduced 

investment has resulted in the lowest count of oil-directed rigs in about five years and in well 

completions that are significantly behind 2014 levels. 

Oil prices, particularly in the second quarter of 2015, remained high enough to support 

continued development drilling in the core areas within the Bakken, Eagle Ford, Niobrara, and 

Permian formations, with July and August showing the first consecutive month-to-month 

increases in the oil-directed rig count since September and October 2014. However, WTI prices 

below $60/b through the forecast period are anticipated to limit onshore drilling activity and 

well completion totals, despite continued increases in rig and well productivity and falling 

drilling and completion costs. The forecast remains sensitive to actual wellhead prices and 

rapidly changing drilling economics that vary across regions and operators. 

While projected oil production in the Gulf of Mexico rises during the forecast period, oil 

production in Alaska falls. Production in these areas is less sensitive to short-term price 
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy and Winter Fuels Outlook October 2015 11

movements than onshore production in the Lower 48 states and reflects anticipated growth 

from new projects in the Gulf of Mexico and declines from legacy fields in Alaska.

HGL production at natural gas processing plants reached a record high of 3.31 million b/d in 

April 2015, and it is projected to average 3.27 million b/d in 2015 and 3.61 million b/d in 2016. 

EIA expects higher ethane recovery rates in 2016 following planned increases in petrochemical 

plant feedstock demand in the United States and abroad. Waterborne ethane exports are 

expected to begin by the end of 2015 as new terminals and expansions allow for higher 

quantities of domestically produced ethane, propane, and butanes to reach the international 

market.

U.S. petroleum product gross exports continue to grow, up almost 0.5 million b/d (12%) through 

July 2015 compared with the same period in 2014. More than half of the growth in liquid fuel 

exports came from HGL. The increase in refined product exports, combined with the growth in 

domestic liquid fuels consumption, contributed to U.S. refinery utilization averaging 91.2% 

during the first seven months of the year, up from 89.4% last year, and the highest rate for this 

period since 2005. Gross inputs to U.S. refineries exceeded 17 million b/d for six consecutive 

weeks in July and August, a level not previously reached or exceeded in any week since EIA 

began publishing the data in 1990.

Petroleum Product Prices. Rising crude oil prices, strong gasoline demand, and ongoing refinery 

outages on the West Coast contributed to an increase in U.S. regular gasoline retail prices from 

a monthly average of $2.47/gal in April to $2.80/gal in June. Falling crude oil prices and 

narrowing wholesale gasoline margins have since contributed to prices declining to an average 

of $2.37/gal in September. EIA expects monthly average gasoline prices to decline in the coming 

months as refineries continue to produce high levels of gasoline, as demand begins to decrease 

following the summer driving season, and as the market transitions to lower-cost, winter-grade 

gasoline. EIA projects regular gasoline retail prices to average $2.12/gal in the fourth quarter of 

2015.

The U.S. regular gasoline retail price, which averaged $3.36/gal in 2014, is projected to average 

$2.42/gal in 2015 and $2.38/gal in 2016. The 2015 average price is 1 cent/gal higher than in the 

September STEO, and the 2016 average price is unchanged.

The diesel fuel retail price, which averaged $3.83/gal in 2014, is projected to fall to an average 

of $2.72/gal in 2015 and then rise to $2.77/gal in 2016.

Natural Gas

Natural Gas Consumption. EIA's forecast of U.S. total natural gas consumption averages 76.2

billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2015 and 76.4 Bcf/d in 2016, compared with 73.1 Bcf/d in 

2014. EIA projects natural gas consumption in the power sector to increase by 15.6% in 2015 

and then decrease by 2.1% in 2016. Natural gas prices, which are expected to remain below $3 

per million British thermal units (MMBtu) through January 2016, support increased use of 

natural gas for electricity generation in 2015. Industrial sector consumption remains flat in 2015 
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy and Winter Fuels Outlook October 2015 12

and increases by 4.2% in 2016, as new industrial projects, particularly in the fertilizer and 

chemicals sectors, come online late this year and next year, and as industrial consumers 

continue to experience low natural gas prices. Natural gas consumption in the residential and 

commercial sectors is projected to decline in both 2015 and 2016. 

Natural Gas Production and Trade. EIA expects that marketed natural gas production will 

increase by 4.2 Bcf/d (5.6%) and by 1.5 Bcf/d (1.9%) in 2015 and 2016, respectively, with 

increases in the Lower 48 states expected to more than offset continuing production declines in 

the Gulf of Mexico. Increases in drilling efficiency will continue to support growing natural gas 

production in the forecast despite relatively low natural gas prices. Most of the growth is 

expected to come from the Marcellus Shale, as the backlog of uncompleted wells is reduced and 

as new pipelines come online to deliver Marcellus natural gas to markets in the Northeast. 

Increases in domestic natural gas production are expected to reduce demand for natural gas 

imports from Canada and to support growth in exports to Mexico. Earlier this year, natural gas 

net imports fell to the lowest monthly level since 1987, averaging 2.3 Bcf/d in both May and 

June. EIA expects natural gas exports to Mexico, particularly from the Eagle Ford Shale in South 

Texas, to increase because of growing demand from Mexico's electric power sector coupled 

with flat natural gas production in Mexico. EIA projects LNG gross exports will increase to an 

average of 0.79 Bcf/d in 2016, with the startup of a major LNG liquefaction plant in the Lower 48 

states at the end of this year.

Natural Gas Inventories. On September 25, natural gas working inventories totaled 3,538 Bcf, 

454 Bcf (15%) above the level at the same time in 2014 and 152 Bcf (4%) above the five-year 

average for that week. EIA projects end-of-October 2015 inventories will total 3,956 Bcf, which 

would be 158 Bcf above the five-year average, and the highest end-of-October level on record.

Natural Gas Prices. The Henry Hub natural gas spot price averaged $2.66/MMBtu in September, 

a decrease of 11 cents/MMBtu from the August price. Monthly average Henry Hub spot prices 

are forecast to remain lower than $3/MMBtu through January, and lower than $3.50/MMBtu 

through the rest of the forecast. The projected Henry Hub natural gas price averages 

$2.81/MMBtu in 2015 and $3.05/MMBtu in 2016.

Natural gas futures contracts for January 2016 delivery traded during the five-day period ending 

October 1 averaged $2.87/MMBtu. Current options and futures prices imply that market 

participants place the lower and upper bounds for the 95% confidence interval for January 2016

contracts at $1.93/MMBtu and $4.27/MMBtu, respectively. At this time in 2014, the natural gas 

futures contract for January 2015 delivery averaged $4.19/MMBtu, and the corresponding lower 

and upper limits of the 95% confidence interval were $2.96/MMBtu and $5.94/MMBtu, 

respectively.

Coal 

Coal Supply. Lower domestic coal consumption and reduced exports contribute to a forecast 

decline of 89 million short tons (MMst) in U.S. coal production in 2015. Production is expected 
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy and Winter Fuels Outlook October 2015 13

to decrease in all coal-producing regions in 2015, with the largest decline on a percentage basis 

occurring in the Appalachian region. Interior region production, which includes the Illinois Basin 

(ILB), is expected to decline for the first time since 2009, while Western region production is 

projected to fall below 500 MMst for the first time since 1998. U.S. coal production is expected 

to decrease by an additional 28 MMst (3.0%) in 2016, but Interior region production is projected 

to grow by 1.5%. The forecast 2016 increase in ILB coal production reflects advantages 

compared with other coal-producing regions, high heat content, closer proximity to major 

markets than coal produced in the Western region, and lower mining costs than Appalachianproduced coal.

Electric power sector stockpiles were 160 MMst in July, a 5% decrease from the June level. This 

decrease in June-to-July coal stockpiles follows the normal seasonal pattern whereby coal 

stockpiles decrease during the summer months. Despite this decrease, coal stockpiles are still 

relatively high because of the loss in market share to natural gas for power generation. Coal 

inventories in July 2015 were 35 MMst higher than in July 2014, when inventories were still 

recovering from the effects of colder-than-normal temperatures during the 2013-14 winter.

Coal Consumption. EIA expects an 8% decrease in total coal consumption in 2015, mainly driven 

by an 8% drop in electric power sector consumption. Lower natural gas prices are the key factor

driving the decrease in coal consumption. Projected low natural gas prices (power sector natural 

gas prices are 28% lower in 2015 compared with 2014) make it more economical to run natural 

gas-fired generating units at higher utilization rates. The retirements of coal-fired power plants,

in response to the implementation of the Mercury and Air Toxics Standards (MATS), also reduce 

coal-fired capacity in the power sector in 2015, but because the retirements are occurring 

throughout 2015, the full effect will not be evident until 2016. 

Projected rising electricity demand and higher natural gas prices next year are expected to 

contribute to higher utilization rates among the remaining coal-fired power plants. Coal 

consumption in the electric power sector is forecast to remain relatively unchanged in 2016. 

Coal Trade. Slower growth in world coal demand, lower international coal prices, and higher 

coal output in other coal-exporting countries have all contributed to a decline in U.S. coal 

exports. Lower mining costs, cheaper transportation costs, and favorable exchange rates will 

continue to provide an advantage to mines in other major coal-exporting countries compared 

with U.S. producers. Coal exports for the first seven months of 2015 are down 21% compared 

with the same period in 2014. Forecast coal exports fall by 20 MMst, to 77 MMst, in 2015, and 

then decrease by another 9 MMst (12%) in 2016 as the current global coal market trends are 

expected to continue. U.S. coal imports, which increased by more than 2 MMst in 2014 to 11 

MMst, are expected to stay near that level in 2015 and 2016.

Coal Prices. The annual average coal price to the electric power sector averaged $2.36/MMBtu 

in 2014. EIA expects the delivered coal price to average $2.25/MMBtu in 2015 and to increase

by one cent to average $2.26/MMBtu in 2016.
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy and Winter Fuels Outlook October 2015 14

Electricity

The monthly natural gas share of total U.S. electricity generation surpassed the coal share in July 

for the second time ever in July, with natural gas fueling 35.0% of total generation to coal’s 

34.9% share. The first time this happened was April 2015. 

Electricity Consumption. Forecast U.S. sales of electricity to the residential sector are 0.7%

higher in 2015 compared with last year, as higher electricity use in the summer months more 

than offsets lower winter use during the first quarter. Projected residential electricity sales fall 

by 1.4% in 2016. U.S. commercial sector electricity sales are expected to be 0.7% higher in 2015

than sales last year and then grow by 0.9% in 2016. EIA expects U.S. industrial sector electricity 

sales to fall by 0.3% during 2015 and grow by 0.9% in 2016.

Electricity Generation. Sustained low natural gas prices have favored natural gas generation this 

year, at the expense of coal-fired generation, leading to a significant expected increase in the 

natural gas share of total generation from 27.4% in 2014 to 31.6% this year, while the share 

supplied by coal falls from 38.7% to 35.0%. In 2016, EIA forecasts that the natural gas generation 

share will fall slightly to 31.0% and coal's fuel share will average 34.8%. Generation from nuclear 

power is projected to remain relatively flat in 2015 and decline by 2.0% in 2016.

Electricity Retail Prices. The U.S. retail price of electricity to the residential sector is projected to 

average 12.6 cents per kilowatthour in 2015, 0.4% higher than the average price last year. The 

largest price increases are projected to be in New England, where residential electricity prices 

are forecast to increase by 8.2% in 2015, as electricity distribution companies recover higher 

generation and power purchase costs incurred during 2014. However, wholesale power prices in 

New England have been relatively low this year, and utilities in New England have been lowering 

retail prices in the past few months from their peak in March and April.

Renewables and Carbon Dioxide Emissions

Electricity and Heat Generation from Renewables. EIA expects total renewables used in the 

electric power sector to decrease by 2.7% in 2015. Conventional hydropower generation is 

forecast to decrease by 9.7%, and nonhydropower renewable power generation is forecast to 

increase by 4.0%. The 2015 decrease in hydropower generation reflects the effects of the 

California drought. Forecast generation from hydropower in the electric power sector increases 

by 7.3% in 2016. 

EIA expects continued growth in utility-scale solar power generation, which is projected to 

average 89 gigawatthours per day (GWh/d) in 2016. Because the growth is from a small base, 

utility-scale solar power averages 0.8% of total U.S. electricity generation in 2016. Although 

solar growth has historically been concentrated in customer-sited distributed generation 

installations (rooftop panels), EIA expects utility-scale solar capacity will increase by more than

100% (11 GW) between the end of 2014 and the end of 2016, with 4.4 GW of new capacity 

being built in California. Other leading states in utility-scale solar capacity include North Carolina 
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy and Winter Fuels Outlook October 2015 15

and Nevada, which, combined with California, account for almost 70% of the projected utilityscale capacity additions for 2015 and 2016. 

Wind capacity, which starts from a significantly larger installed capacity base than solar, grew by 

8% in 2014, and is forecast to increase by 13% annually in both 2015 and 2016.

Liquid Biofuels. On May 29, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) proposed a rule 

setting Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) volumes for 2014 through 2016. Although these volumes 

could be modified before the final rule is issued, they are used in developing the current STEO

forecast. Ethanol production, which averaged 934,000 b/d in 2014, is forecast to average more 

than 950,000 b/d in both 2015 and 2016. Ethanol consumption, which averaged 877,000 b/d in 

2014, is forecast to average slightly more than 900,000 b/d in both 2015 and 2016, resulting in 

an average 9.9% ethanol share of the total gasoline pool. EIA does not expect significant 

increases in E15 or E85 consumption over the forecast period. The proposed RFS targets could

encourage imports of Brazilian sugarcane ethanol, which were 3,000 b/d in 2014. 

EIA expects the largest effect of the proposed RFS targets will be on biodiesel consumption, 

which contributes to meeting the biomass-based diesel, advanced biofuel, and total renewable 

fuel RFS targets. Biodiesel production averaged an estimated 83,000 b/d in 2014 and is forecast 

to average 92,000 b/d in 2015 and 98,000 b/d in 2016. Net imports of biomass-based diesel are 

also expected to increase from 15,000 b/d in 2014 to 25,000 b/d in 2015, and to 35,000 b/d in 

2016. 

Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions. EIA estimates that emissions of CO2 grew by 1.0% in 

2014. Emissions are projected to fall by 0.7% in 2015 and then increase by 0.2% in 2016. These 

forecasts are sensitive to assumptions about weather and economic growth. 

U.S. Economic Assumptions

Recent Economic Indicators. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that U.S. real 

GDP increased at an annual rate of 3.9% in the second quarter of 2015, higher than the previous 

estimate of 3.7%. The increase in real GDP in the second quarter reflected positive contributions 

from personal consumption expenditures, exports, state and local government spending, 

nonresidential fixed investment, and residential fixed investment.

EIA used the September 2015 version of the IHS macroeconomic model with EIA's energy price 

forecasts as model inputs to develop the economic projections in the STEO.

Production, Income, and Employment. Forecast real GDP growth reaches 2.5% in both 2015 

and 2016. The 2015 growth is above the 2.1% forecast last month, while the 2016 growth is the 

same as last month. Real disposable income grows by 3.3% in 2015, below the 3.5% forecast last 

month, and by 3.0% in 2016. Total industrial production grows at 1.2% in 2015 and 1.1% in 2016. 

Projected growth in nonfarm employment averages 2.1% in 2015 and 1.5% in 2016.

Expenditures. Forecast private real fixed investment growth averages 4.8% and 6.5% in 2015 

and 2016, respectively, led by equipment in 2015 and 2016 and by equipment and structures in 
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy and Winter Fuels Outlook October 2015 16

2016. Real consumption expenditures grow faster than real GDP in 2015 and 2016, at 3.0% in 

both years. Durable goods expenditures drive consumption spending in both years. Export 

growth is 1.7% and 3.7% over the same two years, while import growth is 5.7% in 2015 and 5.0% 

in 2016. Total government expenditures rise 0.7% in 2015 and 0.6% in 2016.

This report was prepared by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the statistical 

and analytical agency within the U.S. Department of Energy. By law, EIA's data, analyses, and 

forecasts are independent of approval by any other officer or employee of the United States 

Government. The views in this report therefore should not be construed as representing 

those of the U.S. Department of Energy or other federal agencies.
Chart Gallery for October 2015

 Short-Term Energy Outlook 

 

 U.S. Energy Information Administration

 Independent Statistics & Analysis 

 

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

Jan 2014 Jul 2014 Jan 2015 Jul 2015 Jan 2016 Jul 2016

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude Oil Price

dollars per barrel

Historical spot price

STEO price forecast

NYMEX futures price

95% NYMEX futures upper confidence interval

95% NYMEX futures lower confidence interval

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2015.

Note: Confidence interval derived from options market information for the 5 trading days ending Oct. 1, 

2015. Intervals not calculated for months with sparse trading in near-the-money options contracts.

Forecast

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50

5.00

Jan 2011 Jan 2012 Jan 2013 Jan 2014 Jan 2015 Jan 2016

U.S. Gasoline and Crude Oil Prices

dollars per gallon Price difference

Retail regular gasoline

Crude oil

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2015.

Crude oil price is composite refiner acquisition cost. Retail prices include state and federal taxes.
Forecast

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50

5.00

Jan 2011 Jan 2012 Jan 2013 Jan 2014 Jan 2015 Jan 2016

U.S. Diesel Fuel and Crude Oil Prices

dollars per gallon Price difference

Retail diesel fuel

Crude oil

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2015.

Crude oil price is composite refiner acquisition cost. Retail prices include state and federal taxes.

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Jan 2014 Jul 2014 Jan 2015 Jul 2015 Jan 2016 Jul 2016

Henry Hub Natural Gas Price

dollars per million Btu

Historical spot price

STEO forecast price

NYMEX futures price

95% NYMEX futures upper confidence interval

95% NYMEX futures lower confidence interval

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2015.

Note: Confidence interval derived from options market information for the 5 trading days ending Oct. 1, 

2015. Intervals not calculated for months with sparse trading in near-the-money options contracts.

Forecast

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

Jan 2011 Jan 2012 Jan 2013 Jan 2014 Jan 2015 Jan 2016

U.S. Natural Gas Prices

dollars per thousand cubic feet

Residential price

Henry Hub spot price

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2015.
Forecast

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

82

84

86

88

90

92

94

96

98

100

2010-Q1 2011-Q1 2012-Q1 2013-Q1 2014-Q1 2015-Q1 2016-Q1

World Liquid Fuels Production and

Consumption Balance

million barrels per day (MMbbl/d)

Implied stock change and balance (right axis)

World production (left axis)

World consumption (left axis)

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2015.

MMbbl/d

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

Jan 2012 Jul 2012 Jan 2013 Jul 2013 Jan 2014 Jul 2014 Jan 2015 Jul 2015

Estimated Historical Unplanned OPEC 

Crude Oil Production Outages

million barrels per day

Saudi Arabia

Kuwait

Iraq

Nigeria

Libya

Iran

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2015.

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

Jan 2012 Jan 2013 Jan 2014 Jan 2015

Estimated Historical Unplanned Non-OPEC 

Liquid Fuels Production Outages

million barrels per day Other

United States

Mexico

Canada

Sudan / S. Sudan

Colombia

Brazil

North Sea

Yemen

China

Syria

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2015.
Forecast

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

76

78

80

82

84

86

88

90

92

94

96

98

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

World Liquid Fuels Consumption

million barrels per day (MMbbl/d)

Change in U.S. consumption (right axis)

Change in China consumption (right axis)

Change in other consumption (right axis)

Total world consumption (left axis)

annual change (MMbbl/d)

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2015.

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

2014 2015 2016

World Liquid Fuels Consumption Growth

million barrels per day

OECD* Non-OECD Asia Former Soviet Union Other

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2015.

* Countries belonging to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development

Forecast

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

2014 2015 2016

OPEC countries North America Russia and Caspian Sea

Latin America North Sea Other Non-OPEC

World Crude Oil and Liquid Fuels Production Growth

million barrels per day

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2015.

Forecast
-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

United States

Canada

Brazil

China

Malaysia

Russia

Kazakhstan

Vietnam

India

Sudan/S. Sudan

Colombia

Oman

Australia

Azerbaijan

Other North Sea

Egypt

Gabon

Norway

Syria

United Kingdom

Mexico

2016

2015

2014

Non-OPEC Crude Oil and Liquid Fuels Production Growth

million barrels per day

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2015.

Forecast

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

2012-Q1 2013-Q1 2014-Q1 2015-Q1 2016-Q1

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8 World oil consumption growth (left axis)

Non-OPEC production growth (left axis)

Change in WTI price (right axis)

World Consumption and Non-OPEC Production Growth

million barrels per day dollars per barrel

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2015.

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

OPEC surplus crude oil production capacity

million barrels per day

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2015.

Note: Shaded area represents 2004-2014 average (2.2 million barrels per day).

Forecast
Forecast

45

50

55

60

65

70

Jan 2010 Jan 2011 Jan 2012 Jan 2013 Jan 2014 Jan 2015 Jan 2016

OECD Commercial Stocks of Crude Oil and 

Other Liquids (days of supply)

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2015.

Note: Colored band around days of supply of crude oil and other liquids stocks represent the range 

between the minimum and maximum from Jan. 2010 - Dec. 2014.

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

2013 2014 2015 2016

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

U.S. Crude Oil and Liquid Fuels Production

million barrels per day (MMbbl/d)

Crude oil (right axis) Natural gas plant liquids (right axis)

Fuel ethanol (right axis) Biodiesel (right axis)

Total production (left axis) Production forecast (left axis)

annual change (MMbbl/d)

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2015.

Forecast

275

300

325

350

375

400

425

450

475

500

Jan 2010 Jan 2011 Jan 2012 Jan 2013 Jan 2014 Jan 2015 Jan 2016

U.S. Commercial Crude Oil Stocks

million barrels

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2015.

Note: Colored band around storage levels represents the range between the minimum and 

maximum from Jan. 2010 - Dec. 2014.
-0.30

-0.15

0.00

0.15

0.30

0.45

0.60

0.75

0.90

2013 2014 2015 2016

17.0

17.5

18.0

18.5

19.0

19.5

20.0

20.5

21.0

U.S. Liquid Fuels Product Supplied

million barrels per day (MMbbl/d)

Motor gasoline (right axis) Jet fuel (right axis)

Distillate fuel (right axis) Other fuels (right axis)

Total product supplied (left axis) Product supplied forecast (left axis)

annual change (MMbbl/d)

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2015.

Forecast

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

Jan 2010 Jan 2011 Jan 2012 Jan 2013 Jan 2014 Jan 2015 Jan 2016

U.S. Gasoline and Distillate Inventories

million barrels

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2015.

Note: Colored bands around storage levels represent the range between the minimum and 

maximum from Jan. 2010 - Dec. 2014.

Total motor gasoline inventory

Total distillate fuel inventory

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

2013 2014 2015 2016

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

U.S. Natural Gas Consumption

billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d)

Electric power (right axis) Residential and comm. (right axis)

Industrial (right axis) Other (right axis)

Total consumption (left axis) Consumption forecast (left axis)

annual change (Bcf/d)

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2015.
-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

2013 2014 2015 2016

60

62

64

66

68

70

72

74

76

78

80

82

84

U.S. Natural Gas Production and Imports

billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d)

Federal Gulf of Mexico production (right axis) U.S. non-Gulf of Mexico production (right axis)

U.S. net imports (right axis) Total marketed production (left axis)

Marketed production forecast (left axis)

annual change (Bcf/d)

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2015.

Forecast

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

-4,000

-3,000

-2,000

-1,000

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

Jan 2011 Jan 2012 Jan 2013 Jan 2014 Jan 2015 Jan 2016

U.S. Working Natural Gas in Storage

billion cubic feet

Deviation from average

Storage level

deviation from average

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2015.

Note: Colored band around storage levels represents the range between the minimum 

and maximum from Jan. 2010 - Dec. 2014.

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2013 2014 2015 2016

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

U.S. Coal Consumption

million short tons (MMst)

Electric power (right axis) Retail and general industry (right axis)

Coke plants (right axis) Total consumption (left axis)

Consumption forecast (left axis)

annual change (MMst)

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2015.
-60

-30

0

30

60

90

2013 2014 2015 2016

50

60

70

80

90

100

U.S. Coal Production

million short tons (MMst)

Western region (right axis) Appalachian region (right axis)

Interior region (right axis) Total production (left axis)

Production forecast (left axis)

annual change (MMst)

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2015.

Forecast

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

225

250

Jan 2007 Jan 2009 Jan 2011 Jan 2013 Jan 2015

U.S. Electric Power Coal Stocks

million short tons

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2015.

Note: Colored band around stock levels represents the range between the minimum 

and maximum from Jan. 2007 - Dec. 2014.

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

2013 2014 2015 2016

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

U.S. Electricity Consumption

million kilowatthours per day (kWh/d)

Residential (right axis) Commercial and transportation (right axis)

Industrial (right axis) Direct use (right axis)

Total consumption (left axis) Consumption forecast (left axis)

annual change (million kWh/d)

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2015.
2.6%

5.4%

10.3%

2.4%

5.7%

2.2%

0.2% 1.6% 1.4% 2.1% 3.1%

0.4% 1.1%

-3%

0%

3%

6%

9%

12%

15%

18%

21%

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

U.S. Residential Electricity Price

cents per kilowatthour

Annual growth (right axis) Residential electricity price Price forecast

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2015.

21.6% 21.4% 23.3% 23.9% 24.7% 30.3% 27.7% 27.4% 31.6% 31.0%

48.5% 48.2% 44.4% 44.8% 42.3% 37.4% 38.9% 38.7% 35.0% 34.8%

Forecast

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

U.S. Electricity Generation by Fuel, All Sectors

thousand megawatthours per day

Coal

Natural gas

Petroleum

Nuclear

Hydropower

Renewables

Other sources

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2015.

Note: Labels show percentage share of total generation provided by coal and natural gas.

Forecast

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

U.S. Renewable Energy Supply

quadrillion British thermal units (Btu)

Solar

Geothermal

Other biomass

Wind power

Liquid biofuels

Wood biomass

Hydropower

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2015.

Note: Hydropower excludes pumped storage generation. Liquid biofuels include ethanol and biodiesel. Other 

biomass includes municipal waste from biogenic sources, landfill gas, and other non-wood waste.
Forecast

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014

U.S. Annual Energy Expenditures

share of gross domestic product

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2015.

Forecast

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

2013 2014 2015 2016

U.S. Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions

annual growth

All fossil fuels Coal Petroleum Natural gas

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2015.

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

Jan 2011 Jan 2012 Jan 2013 Jan 2014 Jan 2015 Jan 2016

U.S. Total Industrial Production Index

index (2007 = 100)

Change from prior year (right axis)

Industrial production index (left axis)

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2015.

change

Forecast
-6%

-3%

0%

3%

6%

9%

12%

15%

18%

10,000

10,400

10,800

11,200

11,600

12,000

12,400

12,800

13,200

Jan 2011 Jan 2012 Jan 2013 Jan 2014 Jan 2015 Jan 2016

U.S. Disposable Income

billion 2009 dollars, seasonally adjusted

Change from prior year (right axis)

Real disposable income (left axis)

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2015.

change

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

April May June July August September

U.S. Summer Cooling Degree Days

population-weighted

2013

2014

2015

2016

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2015.

Note: EIA calculations based on from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration data. Horizontal lines 

indicate each month's prior 10-year average (2006-2015). Projections reflect NOAA's 14-16 month outlook.

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

October November December January February March

U.S. Winter Heating Degree Days

population-weighted

2012/13

2013/14

2014/15

2015/16

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2015.

Note: EIA calculations based on National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) data. Horizontal lines 

indicate each month's prior 10-year average (Oct 2005 - Mar 2015). Projections reflect NOAA's 14-16 month outlook.
U.S. Census Regions and Divisions

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2015.
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook - October 2015

08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15 15-16 % Change 

Natural Gas 

 Northeast

 Consumption (Mcf**) 80.3 75.7 80.7 66.4 76.1 84.1 84.7 75.2 -11.3

 Price ($/mcf) 15.83 13.31 12.66 12.21 11.74 11.55 10.87 11.48 5.6

 Expenditures ($) 1,272 1,007 1,022 812 893 971 921 863 -6.4

 Midwest

 Consumption (Mcf) 80.7 78.6 80.2 65.4 77.6 88.1 83.1 75.2 -9.5

 Price ($/mcf) 11.47 9.44 9.23 8.99 8.36 8.70 8.53 8.08 -5.2

 Expenditures ($) 926 742 740 587 648 766 709 608 -14.2

 South

 Consumption (Mcf) 47.3 53.3 49.3 40.9 46.5 52.1 50.5 47.7 -5.5

 Price ($/mcf) 14.07 11.52 11.02 11.45 10.71 10.79 10.85 10.30 -5.1

 Expenditures ($) 665 614 544 468 498 562 548 491 -10.3

 West

 Consumption (Mcf) 47.8 49.9 49.4 49.1 48.6 46.2 41.3 44.9 8.7

 Price ($/mcf) 10.86 9.91 9.67 9.35 9.13 9.96 10.67 9.37 -12.2

 Expenditures ($) 519 494 478 459 443 460 441 421 -4.6

 U.S. Average 

 Consumption (Mcf) 64.2 64.4 65.0 55.7 62.5 68.0 64.8 60.8 -6.2

 Price ($/mcf) 12.87 10.83 10.46 10.25 9.73 9.98 9.91 9.51 -4.0

 Expenditures ($) 826 698 680 571 608 678 641 578 -9.9

Heating Oil

 U.S. Average 

 Consumption (gallons) 576.7 544.8 580.7 471.2 545.5 607.1 609.0 540.9 -11.2

 Price ($/gallon) 2.65 2.85 3.38 3.73 3.87 3.88 3.04 2.57 -15.3

 Expenditures ($) 1,530 1,552 1,966 1,757 2,113 2,353 1,851 1,392 -24.8

Electricity

 Northeast

 Consumption (kWh***) 7,063 6,847 7,076 6,436 6,862 7,223 7,253 6,825 -5.9

 Price ($/kwh) 0.152 0.152 0.154 0.154 0.152 0.163 0.168 0.168 0.0

 Expenditures ($) 1,071 1,039 1,091 993 1,045 1,179 1,220 1,148 -5.9

 Midwest

 Consumption (kWh) 8,751 8,660 8,733 7,897 8,588 9,169 8,861 8,460 -4.5

 Price ($/kwh) 0.097 0.099 0.105 0.111 0.112 0.112 0.117 0.119 1.5

 Expenditures ($) 851 856 914 875 958 1,027 1,040 1,008 -3.1

 South

 Consumption (kWh) 8,057 8,486 8,224 7,470 7,977 8,385 8,288 8,035 -3.1

 Price ($/kwh) 0.109 0.103 0.104 0.107 0.107 0.109 0.111 0.109 -2.2

 Expenditures ($) 878 873 856 798 851 913 920 872 -5.2

 West

 Consumption (kWh) 7,084 7,239 7,216 7,190 7,150 6,971 6,586 6,867 4.3

 Price ($/kwh) 0.107 0.110 0.112 0.115 0.118 0.123 0.127 0.126 -0.4

 Expenditures ($) 755 799 809 825 847 859 833 865 3.8

 U.S. Average 

 Consumption (kWh) 7,725 7,937 7,844 7,253 7,672 7,981 7,803 7,621 -2.3

 Price ($/kwh) 0.112 0.110 0.113 0.116 0.117 0.120 0.123 0.122 -0.8

 Expenditures ($) 866 873 884 843 895 955 960 930 -3.1

Table WF01. Average Consumer Prices and Expenditures for Heating Fuels During the Winter

Fuel / Region

Winter of Forecast
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook - October 2015

08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15 15-16 % Change 

Table WF01. Average Consumer Prices and Expenditures for Heating Fuels During the Winter

Fuel / Region

Winter of Forecast

Propane

 Northeast

 Consumption (gallons) 714.7 672.0 717.5 595.6 675.8 745.4 751.7 671.1 -10.7

 Price* ($/gallon) 2.84 2.98 3.24 3.34 3.00 3.56 3.00 2.85 -5.0

 Expenditures ($) 2,031 2,004 2,321 1,990 2,031 2,654 2,255 1,913 -15.2

 Midwest

 Consumption (gallons) 795.0 779.6 791.8 644.3 766.4 868.6 813.8 743.6 -8.6

 Price* ($/gallon) 2.11 1.99 2.11 2.23 1.74 2.61 1.91 1.66 -13.1

 Expenditures ($) 1,678 1,548 1,674 1,437 1,333 2,267 1,554 1,234 -20.6

Number of households by primary space heating fuel (thousands)

 Northeast

 Natural gas 10,889 10,992 11,118 11,236 11,345 11,481 11,630 11,728 0.8

 Heating oil 6,280 6,016 5,858 5,701 5,458 5,222 5,060 4,867 -3.8

 Propane 713 733 744 761 813 844 840 848 1.0

 Electricity 2,563 2,645 2,776 2,894 3,011 3,027 3,068 3,161 3.0

 Wood 474 501 512 548 582 579 582 598 2.8

 Midwest

 Natural gas 18,288 18,050 17,977 18,019 18,054 18,098 18,179 18,101 -0.4

 Heating oil 491 451 419 393 360 337 316 291 -7.9

 Propane 2,131 2,098 2,073 2,037 2,063 2,096 2,052 2,003 -2.4

 Electricity 4,570 4,715 4,922 5,119 5,333 5,429 5,517 5,713 3.6

 Wood 584 616 618 631 640 630 631 636 0.8

 South

 Natural gas 13,958 13,731 13,657 13,636 13,681 13,773 13,909 13,908 0.0

 Heating oil 956 906 853 790 738 700 660 610 -7.6

 Propane 2,220 2,165 2,098 2,024 1,982 1,952 1,848 1,719 -7.0

 Electricity 25,258 25,791 26,555 27,283 27,857 28,198 28,682 29,285 2.1

 Wood 593 586 599 609 612 611 613 628 2.6

 West

 Natural gas 15,027 14,939 15,020 15,021 15,008 15,043 15,198 15,251 0.3

 Heating oil 294 289 279 261 247 234 226 219 -3.3

 Propane 936 940 914 885 909 931 900 879 -2.3

 Electricity 7,768 7,877 8,126 8,439 8,671 8,745 8,905 9,180 3.1

 Wood 703 721 725 736 728 741 759 757 -0.3

 U.S. Totals

 Natural gas 58,162 57,713 57,771 57,912 58,088 58,394 58,916 58,988 0.1

 Heating oil 8,021 7,662 7,408 7,145 6,803 6,493 6,262 5,987 -4.4

 Propane 5,999 5,936 5,829 5,707 5,766 5,822 5,640 5,448 -3.4

 Electricity 40,159 41,029 42,380 43,734 44,872 45,400 46,172 47,340 2.5

 Wood 2,353 2,424 2,454 2,524 2,563 2,561 2,584 2,619 1.4

Heating degree days

 Northeast 5,313 4,933 5,337 4,217 4,964 5,597 5,651 4,903 -13.2

 Midwest 5,810 5,639 5,773 4,484 5,544 6,451 6,008 5,345 -11.0

 South 2,493 2,870 2,632 2,023 2,430 2,787 2,695 2,492 -7.5

 West 3,116 3,285 3,258 3,229 3,181 2,978 2,557 2,866 12.1

 U.S. Average 3,869 3,937 3,939 3,224 3,721 4,107 3,883 3,603 -7.2

*** kilowatthour

* Prices exclude taxes

** thousand cubic feet

Note: Winter covers the period October 1 through March 31. Fuel prices are nominal prices. Fuel consumption per household is based only 

on households that use that fuel as the primary space-heating fuel. Included in fuel consumption is consumption for water heating, appliances, 

and lighting (electricity). Per-household consumption based on an average of EIA 2005 and 2009 Residential Energy Consumption Surveys 

corrected for actual and projected heating degree days. Number of households using heating oil includes kerosene.
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 2014 2015 2016

Energy Supply

Crude Oil Production (a)

(million barrels per day) ......................... 8.14 8.61 8.84 9.25 9.39 9.41 9.17 9.02 8.90 8.82 8.71 8.99 8.71 9.25 8.86

Dry Natural Gas Production

(billion cubic feet per day) ..................... 67.53 69.73 71.59 73.04 73.68 74.42 74.68 74.90 75.45 75.65 75.76 76.40 70.49 74.42 75.82

Coal Production

(million short tons) ................................ 245 246 255 253 240 211 232 228 225 213 226 219 1,000 911 883

Energy Consumption 

Liquid Fuels

(million barrels per day) ......................... 18.82 18.77 19.31 19.51 19.29 19.25 19.67 19.56 19.33 19.49 19.80 19.73 19.11 19.44 19.59

Natural Gas

(billion cubic feet per day) ..................... 94.83 60.89 61.36 75.84 96.74 64.01 66.39 77.99 93.42 65.32 67.28 79.57 73.15 76.20 76.38

Coal (b)

(million short tons) ................................ 248 212 247 209 212 189 234 209 214 194 233 200 917 844 841

Electricity

(billion kilowatt hours per day) ............... 10.87 10.04 11.46 9.95 10.73 10.04 11.76 9.96 10.54 10.11 11.79 10.04 10.58 10.62 10.62

Renewables (c)

(quadrillion Btu) ..................................... 2.36 2.57 2.28 2.40 2.42 2.42 2.26 2.29 2.40 2.65 2.43 2.48 9.61 9.38 9.95

Total Energy Consumption (d)

(quadrillion Btu) ..................................... 26.58 23.03 24.14 24.81 26.39 23.01 24.21 24.48 25.91 23.15 24.44 24.78 98.56 98.09 98.29

Energy Prices

Crude Oil (e)

(dollars per barrel) ................................. 97.60 101.08 96.45 73.48 47.98 57.48 46.69 44.34 48.00 53.36 55.34 53.33 92.05 49.16 52.59

Natural Gas Henry Hub Spot

(dollars per million Btu) .......................... 5.21 4.61 3.96 3.80 2.90 2.75 2.76 2.83 3.00 2.90 3.05 3.25 4.39 2.81 3.05

Coal

(dollars per million Btu) .......................... 2.33 2.39 2.37 2.37 2.26 2.25 2.25 2.26 2.25 2.29 2.28 2.24 2.36 2.25 2.26

Macroeconomic

Real Gross Domestic Product

(billion chained 2009 dollars - SAAR) ..... 15,725 15,902 16,069 16,151 16,177 16,324 16,415 16,503 16,595 16,705 16,827 16,956 15,962 16,355 16,771

Percent change from prior year .............. 1.7 2.6 2.9 2.5 2.9 2.7 2.2 2.2 2.6 2.3 2.5 2.7 2.4 2.5 2.5

GDP Implicit Price Deflator

(Index, 2009=100) ................................. 108.0 108.6 109.0 109.1 109.1 109.7 110.4 110.8 111.4 111.8 112.2 112.8 108.7 110.0 112.1

Percent change from prior year .............. 1.6 1.9 1.8 1.3 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.6 2.1 2.0 1.7 1.8 1.6 1.2 1.9

Real Disposable Personal Income

(billion chained 2009 dollars - SAAR) ..... 11,699 11,785 11,863 11,999 12,115 12,154 12,260 12,368 12,468 12,540 12,643 12,735 11,836 12,224 12,596

Percent change from prior year .............. 2.3 2.4 2.5 3.6 3.6 3.1 3.3 3.1 2.9 3.2 3.1 3.0 2.7 3.3 3.0

Manufacturing Production Index

(Index, 2012=100) ................................. 101.9 103.5 104.6 105.6 105.5 105.8 106.3 106.1 106.3 107.1 108.2 109.4 103.9 105.9 107.7

Percent change from prior year .............. 1.0 2.6 3.7 3.9 3.5 2.2 1.6 0.5 0.7 1.2 1.8 3.1 2.8 1.9 1.7

Weather

U.S. Heating Degree-Days .................... 2,449 479 80 1,541 2,342 443 57 1,502 2,101 473 75 1,530 4,550 4,344 4,180

U.S. Cooling Degree-Days .................... 34 394 775 96 47 434 879 93 38 388 848 94 1,298 1,453 1,368

Table 1. U.S. Energy Markets Summary 

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook - October 2015

2014 2015 2016 Year

Petroleum Supply Annual , DOE/EIA-0340/2; Weekly Petroleum Status Report , DOE/EIA-0208; Petroleum Marketing Monthly , DOE/EIA-0380; Natural Gas Monthly , DOE/EIA-0130; 

- = no data available

Prices are not adjusted for inflation.

(a) Includes lease condensate.

(b) Total consumption includes Independent Power Producer (IPP) consumption.

(c) Renewable energy includes minor components of non-marketed renewable energy that is neither bought nor sold, either directly or indirectly, as inputs to marketed energy.

EIA does not estimate or project end-use consumption of non-marketed renewable energy.

(d) The conversion from physical units to Btu is calculated using a subset of conversion factors used in the calculations of gross energy consumption in EIA’s Monthly Energy Review 

Consequently, the historical data may not precisely match those published in the MER or the Annual Energy Review (AER).

(e) Refers to the refiner average acquisition cost (RAC) of crude oil.

Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.

Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports: Petroleum Supply Monthly , DOE/EIA-0109;

Electric Power Monthly , DOE/EIA-0226; Quarterly Coal Report , DOE/EIA-0121; and International Petroleum Monthly , DOE/EIA-0520.

Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding. 

Projections: EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model. Macroeconomic projections are based on Global Insight Model of the U.S. Economy. 

Weather projections from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 2014 2015 2016

Crude Oil (dollars per barrel)

 West Texas Intermediate Spot Average .............................. 98.68 103.35 97.87 73.21 48.48 57.85 46.56 45.34 49.05 54.38 56.31 54.33 93.17 49.53 53.57

 Brent Spot Average ............................................................. 108.14 109.70 101.90 76.43 53.91 61.65 50.45 50.00 54.05 59.38 61.31 59.33 98.89 53.96 58.57

 U.S. Imported Average ........................................................ 94.18 98.64 93.85 71.43 46.40 56.15 44.40 41.84 45.51 50.83 52.83 50.84 89.63 47.19 50.12

 U.S. Refiner Average Acquisition Cost ................................ 97.60 101.08 96.45 73.48 47.98 57.48 46.69 44.34 48.00 53.36 55.34 53.33 92.05 49.16 52.59

U.S. Liquid Fuels (cents per gallon)

 Refiner Prices for Resale

 Gasoline ........................................................................... 272 298 276 203 159 201 179 138 149 184 181 155 262 170 167

 Diesel Fuel ....................................................................... 303 300 288 240 176 189 159 159 170 181 188 188 282 171 182

 Heating Oil ........................................................................ 303 289 276 228 178 180 149 157 165 170 177 183 274 166 173

 Refiner Prices to End Users

 Jet Fuel ............................................................................. 297 295 289 234 172 186 156 153 166 176 181 181 278 166 176

 No. 6 Residual Fuel Oil (a) ............................................... 249 244 243 194 137 154 128 116 119 128 137 133 231 133 129

 Retail Prices Including Taxes

 Gasoline Regular Grade (b) ............................................. 340 368 350 288 227 267 260 212 217 253 252 228 336 242 238

 Gasoline All Grades (b) .................................................... 348 375 358 296 236 275 269 221 225 262 261 236 344 251 246

 On-highway Diesel Fuel ................................................... 396 394 384 358 292 285 263 251 264 277 282 284 383 272 277

 Heating Oil ........................................................................ 397 382 369 330 288 276 250 252 261 263 265 273 372 273 265

Natural Gas

 Henry Hub Spot (dollars per thousand cubic feet) .............. 5.36 4.75 4.08 3.91 2.99 2.83 2.84 2.92 3.09 2.99 3.14 3.35 4.52 2.89 3.14

 Henry Hub Spot (dollars per million Btu) ............................ 5.21 4.61 3.96 3.80 2.90 2.75 2.76 2.83 3.00 2.90 3.05 3.25 4.39 2.81 3.05

 U.S. End-Use Prices (dollars per thousand cubic feet) 

 Industrial Sector ............................................................... 6.19 5.63 5.08 5.18 4.57 3.68 3.72 3.99 4.29 3.85 4.04 4.44 5.55 4.01 4.17

 Commercial Sector .......................................................... 8.65 9.66 9.69 8.52 7.94 8.13 8.54 7.86 7.88 8.30 8.90 8.20 8.87 8.01 8.15

 Residential Sector ............................................................ 9.82 13.11 16.94 10.52 9.29 11.96 16.15 10.03 8.96 11.85 16.08 10.15 10.94 10.35 10.28

U.S. Electricity

 Power Generation Fuel Costs (dollars per million Btu)

 Coal .................................................................................. 2.33 2.39 2.37 2.37 2.26 2.25 2.25 2.26 2.25 2.29 2.28 2.24 2.36 2.25 2.26

 Natural Gas ..................................................................... 6.82 4.93 4.25 4.30 4.09 3.12 3.38 3.83 3.96 3.63 3.78 4.19 4.98 3.57 3.87

 Residual Fuel Oil (c) ......................................................... 19.97 20.44 19.75 14.72 10.82 11.64 11.28 10.03 10.22 11.50 11.86 11.64 19.18 10.90 11.29

 Distillate Fuel Oil .............................................................. 23.40 22.77 21.88 18.72 15.39 15.18 13.51 14.04 14.67 15.34 15.68 16.32 22.34 14.74 15.44

 End-Use Prices (cents per kilowatthour)

 Industrial Sector ............................................................... 6.99 6.92 7.36 6.76 6.76 6.73 7.39 6.89 6.90 6.89 7.51 6.95 7.01 6.95 7.07

 Commercial Sector .......................................................... 10.55 10.68 11.11 10.59 10.50 10.56 11.23 10.82 10.75 10.83 11.49 11.02 10.75 10.79 11.04

 Residential Sector ............................................................ 11.91 12.73 13.01 12.38 12.24 12.85 12.89 12.20 12.20 12.90 13.14 12.48 12.50 12.55 12.69

(c) Includes fuel oils No. 4, No. 5, No. 6, and topped crude.

Table 2. Energy Prices

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook - October 2015

2014 2015 2016 Year

- = no data available

Prices are not adjusted for inflation.

(a) Average for all sulfur contents.

(b) Average self-service cash price.

Projections: EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.

Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.

Prices exclude taxes unless otherwise noted.

Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports: Petroleum Marketing Monthly , DOE/EIA-0380;

Weekly Petroleum Status Report , DOE/EIA-0208; Natural Gas Monthly , DOE/EIA-0130; Electric Power Monthly , DOE/EIA-0226; and Monthly Energy Review , DOE/EIA-0035.

WTI and Brent crude oils, and Henry Hub natural gas spot prices from Reuter's News Service (http://www.reuters.com).

Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding. 
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 2014 2015 2016

Supply (million barrels per day) (a)

 OECD ................................................. 25.04 25.48 25.79 26.69 26.59 26.39 26.55 26.47 26.47 26.46 26.55 27.02 25.75 26.50 26.63

 U.S. (50 States) ............................... 13.15 13.96 14.37 14.82 14.71 15.02 14.91 14.80 14.67 14.75 14.80 15.18 14.08 14.86 14.85

 Canada ............................................ 4.35 4.25 4.33 4.51 4.69 4.22 4.49 4.64 4.74 4.80 4.90 4.97 4.36 4.51 4.85

 Mexico ............................................. 2.89 2.86 2.79 2.75 2.68 2.58 2.66 2.66 2.64 2.63 2.62 2.60 2.82 2.64 2.62

 North Sea (b) ................................... 3.07 2.81 2.71 3.02 3.02 3.08 2.92 2.81 2.89 2.75 2.69 2.74 2.90 2.96 2.77

 Other OECD .................................... 1.57 1.59 1.60 1.58 1.49 1.49 1.57 1.56 1.53 1.53 1.55 1.54 1.59 1.53 1.54

 Non-OECD ......................................... 66.84 67.05 67.93 68.34 68.04 69.17 69.79 69.18 68.20 69.16 70.11 69.93 67.55 69.05 69.36

 OPEC .............................................. 36.26 35.94 36.52 36.66 36.66 37.37 37.73 37.46 37.00 37.35 38.03 38.03 36.35 37.31 37.60

 Crude Oil Portion .......................... 30.01 29.70 30.28 30.34 30.29 30.96 31.25 30.90 30.36 30.63 31.23 31.16 30.08 30.85 30.85

 Other Liquids ................................ 6.25 6.24 6.24 6.32 6.36 6.41 6.49 6.56 6.64 6.72 6.79 6.87 6.26 6.46 6.76

 Eurasia ............................................ 13.90 13.84 13.85 13.99 14.10 14.03 14.03 13.94 13.89 13.91 13.93 13.96 13.90 14.02 13.92

 China ............................................... 4.60 4.61 4.54 4.68 4.66 4.73 4.69 4.67 4.64 4.67 4.68 4.68 4.61 4.69 4.67

 Other Non-OECD ............................ 12.09 12.67 13.02 13.00 12.62 13.03 13.34 13.11 12.67 13.23 13.48 13.26 12.70 13.03 13.16

 Total World Supply ............................. 91.88 92.54 93.73 95.03 94.63 95.56 96.34 95.64 94.67 95.62 96.67 96.96 93.30 95.55 95.98

 Non-OPEC Supply .............................. 55.62 56.60 57.21 58.36 57.97 58.19 58.60 58.19 57.67 58.27 58.64 58.92 56.95 58.24 58.38

Consumption (million barrels per day) (c)

 OECD ................................................. 45.75 44.84 45.97 46.44 46.53 45.33 46.28 46.73 46.73 45.63 46.47 46.95 45.75 46.22 46.45

 U.S. (50 States) ............................... 18.82 18.77 19.31 19.51 19.29 19.25 19.67 19.56 19.33 19.49 19.80 19.73 19.11 19.44 19.59

 U.S. Territories ................................ 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.37 0.37 0.37 0.37 0.40 0.40 0.40 0.40 0.35 0.37 0.40

 Canada ............................................ 2.43 2.34 2.46 2.42 2.36 2.32 2.43 2.41 2.38 2.32 2.43 2.41 2.41 2.38 2.38

 Europe ............................................. 12.98 13.38 13.86 13.52 13.55 13.30 13.75 13.71 13.58 13.30 13.75 13.70 13.44 13.58 13.58

 Japan ............................................... 5.02 3.88 3.88 4.43 4.74 3.85 3.88 4.25 4.55 3.82 3.85 4.22 4.30 4.18 4.11

 Other OECD .................................... 6.14 6.11 6.11 6.21 6.21 6.23 6.18 6.42 6.50 6.30 6.25 6.49 6.14 6.26 6.38

 Non-OECD ......................................... 45.63 46.96 47.35 46.81 46.35 47.93 48.27 47.71 47.50 49.13 49.47 48.89 46.69 47.57 48.75

 Eurasia ............................................ 4.82 4.76 4.98 4.96 4.71 4.65 4.92 4.90 4.73 4.66 4.93 4.92 4.88 4.80 4.81

 Europe ............................................. 0.70 0.71 0.73 0.73 0.71 0.72 0.74 0.74 0.72 0.73 0.75 0.75 0.72 0.73 0.73

 China ............................................... 10.45 11.03 10.98 10.94 10.77 11.36 11.32 11.27 11.06 11.67 11.62 11.57 10.85 11.18 11.48

 Other Asia ........................................ 11.80 12.01 11.56 11.88 12.11 12.33 11.87 12.19 12.46 12.69 12.21 12.54 11.81 12.13 12.48

 Other Non-OECD ............................ 17.86 18.46 19.10 18.31 18.04 18.87 19.43 18.61 18.53 19.38 19.96 19.12 18.43 18.74 19.25

 Total World Consumption ................... 91.38 91.80 93.32 93.25 92.87 93.26 94.55 94.44 94.23 94.76 95.95 95.84 92.45 93.79 95.20

Total Crude Oil and Other Liquids Inventory Net Withdrawals (million barrels per day)

 U.S. (50 States) .................................. 0.03 -0.66 -0.22 -0.22 -0.54 -0.69 -0.24 0.64 0.04 -0.27 -0.06 0.52 -0.27 -0.21 0.06

 Other OECD ....................................... -0.31 -0.02 -0.50 0.33 -0.19 -0.57 -0.55 -0.67 -0.18 -0.21 -0.23 -0.58 -0.12 -0.49 -0.30

 Other Stock Draws and Balance ........ -0.21 -0.05 0.32 -1.90 -1.03 -1.04 -1.00 -1.17 -0.30 -0.39 -0.43 -1.05 -0.46 -1.06 -0.54

 Total Stock Draw ............................. -0.49 -0.73 -0.41 -1.78 -1.75 -2.30 -1.78 -1.21 -0.44 -0.86 -0.72 -1.12 -0.86 -1.76 -0.79

End-of-period Commercial Crude Oil and Other Liquids Inventories

 U.S. Commercial Inventory ................ 1,063 1,128 1,149 1,169 1,217 1,277 1,298 1,240 1,236 1,260 1,266 1,218 1,169 1,240 1,218

 OECD Commercial Inventory ............. 2,575 2,642 2,711 2,698 2,763 2,874 2,946 2,948 2,961 3,004 3,031 3,037 2,698 2,948 3,037

(a) Supply includes production of crude oil (including lease condensates), natural gas plant liquids, biofuels, other liquids, and refinery processing gains.

Table 3a. International Petroleum and Other Liquids Production, Consumption, and Inventories

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook - October 2015

2014 2015 2016 Year

- = no data available

OECD = Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Chile, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, 

 France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, Luxembourg, Mexico, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, 

 Slovakia, Slovenia, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, the United Kingdom, and the United States.

OPEC = Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries: Algeria, Angola, Ecuador, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Venezuela.

Projections: EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.

(b) Includes offshore supply from Denmark, Germany, the Netherlands, Norway, and the United Kingdom.

(c) Consumption of petroleum by the OECD countries is synonymous with "petroleum product supplied," defined in the glossary of the EIA Petroleum Supply Monthly, DOE/EIA-0109. 

Consumption of petroleum by the non-OECD countries is "apparent consumption," which includes internal consumption, refinery fuel and loss, and bunkering.

Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.

Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration international energy statistics.

Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding. 
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 2014 2015 2016

North America ..................................................... 20.39 21.08 21.49 22.08 22.08 21.82 22.06 22.10 22.05 22.19 22.31 22.75 21.27 22.02 22.32

Canada .................................................................. 4.35 4.25 4.33 4.51 4.69 4.22 4.49 4.64 4.74 4.80 4.90 4.97 4.36 4.51 4.85

Mexico ................................................................... 2.89 2.86 2.79 2.75 2.68 2.58 2.66 2.66 2.64 2.63 2.62 2.60 2.82 2.64 2.62

United States ......................................................... 13.15 13.96 14.37 14.82 14.71 15.02 14.91 14.80 14.67 14.75 14.80 15.18 14.08 14.86 14.85

Central and South America ............................... 4.55 5.17 5.56 5.39 4.95 5.42 5.69 5.43 4.98 5.55 5.77 5.51 5.17 5.38 5.46

Argentina ............................................................... 0.70 0.71 0.73 0.73 0.70 0.71 0.75 0.75 0.70 0.72 0.76 0.76 0.72 0.73 0.74

Brazil ..................................................................... 2.34 2.98 3.32 3.15 2.73 3.22 3.45 3.16 2.74 3.30 3.51 3.24 2.95 3.14 3.20

Colombia ............................................................... 1.03 0.99 1.02 1.03 1.06 1.05 1.01 1.03 1.05 1.04 1.01 1.02 1.02 1.04 1.03

Other Central and S. America ................................ 0.48 0.49 0.48 0.48 0.47 0.45 0.48 0.49 0.48 0.48 0.50 0.49 0.48 0.47 0.49

Europe ................................................................. 4.06 3.80 3.70 4.02 4.00 4.05 3.89 3.78 3.85 3.70 3.65 3.70 3.89 3.93 3.73

Norway .................................................................. 1.97 1.80 1.86 1.97 1.94 1.94 1.93 1.87 1.87 1.79 1.83 1.83 1.90 1.92 1.83

United Kingdom (offshore) ..................................... 0.93 0.85 0.66 0.84 0.88 0.96 0.81 0.77 0.84 0.79 0.68 0.72 0.82 0.86 0.76

Other North Sea .................................................... 0.18 0.16 0.19 0.21 0.20 0.18 0.17 0.17 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.19 0.19 0.18 0.18

Eurasia ................................................................. 13.91 13.85 13.87 14.01 14.11 14.05 14.04 13.95 13.90 13.92 13.95 13.97 13.91 14.04 13.94

Azerbaijan .............................................................. 0.85 0.86 0.88 0.84 0.86 0.87 0.88 0.88 0.88 0.88 0.87 0.87 0.86 0.87 0.87

Kazakhstan ............................................................ 1.73 1.66 1.71 1.78 1.76 1.71 1.70 1.70 1.70 1.71 1.71 1.74 1.72 1.72 1.72

Russia ................................................................... 10.86 10.83 10.79 10.93 10.99 10.98 10.96 10.88 10.83 10.84 10.87 10.87 10.85 10.95 10.85

Turkmenistan ......................................................... 0.27 0.28 0.28 0.25 0.29 0.27 0.28 0.27 0.28 0.29 0.29 0.28 0.27 0.28 0.28

Other Eurasia ........................................................ 0.20 0.21 0.22 0.21 0.20 0.21 0.22 0.22 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.20 0.21 0.21 0.21

Middle East ......................................................... 1.19 1.17 1.20 1.16 1.19 1.15 1.17 1.15 1.12 1.10 1.10 1.10 1.18 1.16 1.11

Oman .................................................................... 0.96 0.95 0.96 0.94 0.97 0.99 1.03 1.02 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.95 1.00 0.94

Syria ...................................................................... 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.03 0.04 0.01

Yemen ................................................................... 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.12 0.11 0.05 0.03 0.02 0.10 0.08 0.09 0.08 0.13 0.05 0.09

Asia and Oceania ............................................... 9.19 9.20 9.08 9.35 9.31 9.38 9.43 9.45 9.45 9.49 9.54 9.54 9.20 9.39 9.51

Australia ................................................................ 0.46 0.48 0.49 0.46 0.39 0.39 0.47 0.46 0.44 0.44 0.45 0.44 0.47 0.43 0.44

China ..................................................................... 4.60 4.61 4.54 4.68 4.66 4.73 4.69 4.67 4.64 4.67 4.68 4.68 4.61 4.69 4.67

India ...................................................................... 1.02 1.01 0.99 1.02 1.01 1.00 1.00 1.02 1.03 1.03 1.03 1.03 1.01 1.01 1.03

Indonesia ............................................................... 0.91 0.91 0.91 0.90 0.88 0.93 0.94 0.95 0.97 0.99 1.01 1.01 0.91 0.92 0.99

Malaysia ................................................................ 0.67 0.67 0.64 0.74 0.79 0.75 0.74 0.76 0.78 0.77 0.76 0.77 0.68 0.76 0.77

Vietnam ................................................................. 0.32 0.31 0.30 0.33 0.35 0.34 0.36 0.37 0.36 0.36 0.37 0.37 0.32 0.35 0.37

Africa ................................................................... 2.34 2.32 2.33 2.35 2.33 2.32 2.33 2.33 2.31 2.31 2.32 2.35 2.34 2.33 2.32

Egypt ..................................................................... 0.70 0.70 0.70 0.72 0.71 0.70 0.71 0.70 0.70 0.70 0.70 0.69 0.71 0.71 0.70

Equatorial Guinea .................................................. 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.27 0.27 0.27 0.27 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.29 0.27 0.25

Gabon ................................................................... 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.22 0.21 0.21

Sudan .................................................................... 0.26 0.26 0.26 0.26 0.26 0.25 0.26 0.26 0.26 0.26 0.26 0.26 0.26 0.26 0.26

Total non-OPEC liquids ....................................... 55.62 56.60 57.21 58.36 57.97 58.19 58.60 58.19 57.67 58.27 58.64 58.92 56.95 58.24 58.38

OPEC non-crude liquids .................................... 6.25 6.24 6.24 6.32 6.36 6.41 6.49 6.56 6.64 6.72 6.79 6.87 6.26 6.46 6.76

Non-OPEC + OPEC non-crude .......................... 61.87 62.83 63.45 64.69 64.34 64.60 65.09 64.75 64.31 64.99 65.43 65.80 63.22 64.70 65.13

Unplanned non-OPEC Production Outages ....... 0.66 0.67 0.60 0.57 0.62 0.83 0.76 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 0.62 n/a n/a 

Table 3b. Non-OPEC Petroleum and Other Liquids Supply (million barrels per day)

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook - October 2015

2014 2015 2016 Year

Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration international energy statistics.

Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding. 

Projections: EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.

- = no data available

Sudan production represents total production from both north and south.

OPEC = Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries: Algeria, Angola, Ecuador, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Venezuela.

Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.

Supply includes production of crude oil (including lease condensates), natural gas plant liquids, biofuels, other liquids, and refinery processing gains.

Not all countries are shown in each region and sum of reported country volumes may not equal regional volumes.
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 2014 2015 2016

Crude Oil

 Algeria ........................................................... 1.15 1.15 1.15 1.15 1.10 1.10 1.10 - - - - - 1.15 - - 

 Angola ........................................................... 1.63 1.63 1.72 1.73 1.75 1.77 1.76 - - - - - 1.68 - - 

 Ecudaor ......................................................... 0.55 0.56 0.56 0.56 0.55 0.54 0.56 - - - - - 0.56 - - 

 Iran ................................................................ 2.80 2.80 2.80 2.80 2.80 2.80 2.80 - - - - - 2.80 - - 

 Iraq ................................................................ 3.26 3.29 3.28 3.53 3.57 4.03 4.21 - - - - - 3.34 - - 

 Kuwait ........................................................... 2.60 2.60 2.60 2.48 2.57 2.53 2.50 - - - - - 2.57 - - 

 Libya .............................................................. 0.38 0.23 0.58 0.69 0.40 0.45 0.37 - - - - - 0.47 - - 

 Nigeria ........................................................... 2.00 1.97 2.07 1.98 2.03 1.88 1.92 - - - - - 2.00 - - 

 Qatar ............................................................. 0.74 0.73 0.72 0.68 0.68 0.68 0.68 - - - - - 0.72 - - 

 Saudi Arabia .................................................. 9.80 9.65 9.70 9.63 9.73 10.07 10.25 - - - - - 9.70 - - 

 United Arab Emirates .................................... 2.70 2.70 2.70 2.70 2.70 2.70 2.70 - - - - - 2.70 - - 

 Venezuela ..................................................... 2.40 2.40 2.40 2.40 2.40 2.40 2.40 - - - - - 2.40 - - 

 OPEC Total ................................................ 30.01 29.70 30.28 30.34 30.29 30.96 31.25 30.90 30.36 30.63 31.23 31.16 30.08 30.85 30.85

Other Liquids .................................................. 6.25 6.24 6.24 6.32 6.36 6.41 6.49 6.56 6.64 6.72 6.79 6.87 6.26 6.46 6.76

Total OPEC Supply ........................................ 36.26 35.94 36.52 36.66 36.66 37.37 37.73 37.46 37.00 37.35 38.03 38.03 36.35 37.31 37.60

Crude Oil Production Capacity

 Africa ............................................................. 5.15 4.97 5.51 5.54 5.29 5.18 5.14 5.20 5.18 5.20 5.21 5.22 5.29 5.20 5.20

 South America ............................................... 2.95 2.95 2.95 2.95 2.95 2.93 2.95 2.97 2.86 2.85 2.86 2.88 2.95 2.95 2.86

 Middle East ................................................... 23.93 23.88 23.86 23.79 23.90 24.24 24.40 24.41 24.46 24.74 25.35 25.38 23.86 24.24 24.98

 OPEC Total ................................................ 32.02 31.80 32.32 32.28 32.14 32.36 32.49 32.57 32.50 32.79 33.42 33.49 32.10 32.39 33.05

Surplus Crude Oil Production Capacity

 Africa ............................................................. 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00

 South America ............................................... 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

 Middle East ................................................... 2.01 2.09 2.04 1.93 1.83 1.40 1.24 1.68 2.13 2.16 2.19 2.33 2.02 1.54 2.20

 OPEC Total ................................................ 2.01 2.09 2.04 1.93 1.85 1.40 1.24 1.68 2.13 2.16 2.19 2.33 2.02 1.54 2.20

Unplanned OPEC Production Outages ........ 2.32 2.57 2.26 2.43 2.72 2.79 2.95 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 2.40 n/a n/a 

Projections: EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.

Table 3c. OPEC Crude Oil (excluding condensates) Supply (million barrels per day)

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook - October 2015

2014 2015 2016 Year

- = no data available

OPEC = Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries: Algeria, Angola, Libya, and Nigeria (Africa); Ecuador and Venezuela (South America); Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirate

(Middle East).

Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.

Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration international energy statistics.

Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding. 
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2014 2015 2016

North America ............................................................. 23.21 23.09 23.74 23.92 23.53 23.52 24.03 23.92 23.66 23.77 24.16 24.08 23.49 23.75 23.92

Canada .......................................................................... 2.43 2.34 2.46 2.42 2.36 2.32 2.43 2.41 2.38 2.32 2.43 2.41 2.41 2.38 2.38

Mexico ........................................................................... 1.95 1.97 1.96 1.98 1.87 1.95 1.92 1.93 1.93 1.95 1.92 1.93 1.97 1.92 1.93

United States ................................................................. 18.82 18.77 19.31 19.51 19.29 19.25 19.67 19.56 19.33 19.49 19.80 19.73 19.11 19.44 19.59

Central and South America ..................................... 7.05 7.30 7.33 7.31 7.05 7.37 7.41 7.38 7.17 7.44 7.47 7.45 7.25 7.30 7.38

Brazil .............................................................................. 3.03 3.14 3.21 3.20 3.03 3.14 3.21 3.20 3.06 3.18 3.24 3.23 3.15 3.15 3.18

Europe ......................................................................... 13.68 14.09 14.59 14.25 14.26 14.02 14.49 14.45 14.30 14.03 14.49 14.45 14.16 14.31 14.32

Eurasia ......................................................................... 4.85 4.79 5.01 4.99 4.74 4.67 4.95 4.93 4.76 4.69 4.97 4.95 4.91 4.83 4.84

Russia ........................................................................... 3.49 3.45 3.65 3.63 3.39 3.34 3.54 3.53 3.35 3.30 3.50 3.48 3.56 3.45 3.41

Middle East ................................................................. 7.97 8.33 8.98 8.17 8.01 8.64 9.22 8.37 8.36 8.96 9.56 8.68 8.36 8.56 8.89

Asia and Oceania ...................................................... 30.88 30.48 29.99 30.91 31.39 31.15 30.62 31.53 31.95 31.84 31.30 32.22 30.56 31.17 31.83

China ............................................................................. 10.45 11.03 10.98 10.94 10.77 11.36 11.32 11.27 11.06 11.67 11.62 11.57 10.85 11.18 11.48

Japan ............................................................................. 5.02 3.88 3.88 4.43 4.74 3.85 3.88 4.25 4.55 3.82 3.85 4.22 4.30 4.18 4.11

India ............................................................................... 3.88 3.86 3.54 3.83 4.08 4.06 3.72 4.02 4.25 4.23 3.88 4.19 3.78 3.97 4.14

Africa ........................................................................... 3.73 3.73 3.68 3.70 3.89 3.88 3.84 3.86 4.04 4.03 3.99 4.01 3.71 3.86 4.02

Total OECD Liquid Fuels Consumption .................. 45.75 44.84 45.97 46.44 46.53 45.33 46.28 46.73 46.73 45.63 46.47 46.95 45.75 46.22 46.45

Total non-OECD Liquid Fuels Consumption .......... 45.63 46.96 47.35 46.81 46.35 47.93 48.27 47.71 47.50 49.13 49.47 48.89 46.69 47.57 48.75

Total World Liquid Fuels Consumption .................. 91.38 91.80 93.32 93.25 92.87 93.26 94.55 94.44 94.23 94.76 95.95 95.84 92.45 93.79 95.20

World Index, 2010 Q1 = 100 ........................................ 113.3 114.1 114.9 115.7 116.2 116.9 117.5 118.4 119.1 120.0 120.9 122.0 114.5 117.2 120.5

 Percent change from prior year ................................. 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.5 2.7 2.9 3.1 2.8 2.4 2.8

OECD Index, 2010 Q1 = 100 ....................................... 109.8 110.3 111.0 111.6 112.1 112.6 113.1 113.7 114.3 115.0 115.7 116.5 110.7 112.9 115.4

 Percent change from prior year ................................. 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.1 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.3 2.5 1.9 2.0 2.2

Non-OECD Index, 2010 Q1 = 100 ............................... 117.5 118.7 119.7 120.9 121.4 122.1 122.9 124.2 125.2 126.4 127.5 128.9 119.2 122.6 127.0

 Percent change from prior year ................................. 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.7 3.3 2.8 2.7 2.7 3.1 3.5 3.7 3.8 3.8 2.9 3.5

Real U.S. Dollar Exchange Rate (a)

Index, January 2010 = 100 ........................................... 108.07 107.84 109.02 113.60 119.25 119.49 123.06 125.27 125.64 125.50 125.20 125.10 109.63 121.76 125.36

Percent change from prior year .................................... 3.8 2.0 1.9 6.7 10.3 10.8 12.9 10.3 5.4 5.0 1.7 -0.1 3.6 11.1 3.0

Table 3d. World Petrioleum and Other Liquids Consumption (million barrels per day)

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook - October 2015

2014 2015 2016

Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.

Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration international energy statistics.

Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding. 

Projections: EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.

Oil-weighted Real Gross Domestic Product (a)

- = no data available

OECD = Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Chile, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, 

 France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, Luxembourg, Mexico, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, 

 Slovakia, Slovenia, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, the United Kingdom, and the United States.

(a) Weighted geometric mean of real indices for various countries with weights equal to each country's share of world oil consumption in the base period. Exchange rate is measured in foreign currency per U.S. 

dollar.
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 2014 2015 2016

Supply (million barrels per day)

 Crude Oil Supply

 Domestic Production (a) ......................................... 8.14 8.61 8.84 9.25 9.39 9.41 9.17 9.02 8.90 8.82 8.71 8.99 8.71 9.25 8.86

 Alaska .................................................................. 0.53 0.52 0.43 0.51 0.50 0.48 0.43 0.49 0.48 0.47 0.42 0.47 0.50 0.47 0.46

 Federal Gulf of Mexico (b) ................................... 1.32 1.42 1.43 1.42 1.46 1.47 1.51 1.55 1.61 1.62 1.52 1.63 1.40 1.50 1.59

 Lower 48 States (excl GOM) ................................ 6.29 6.68 6.98 7.32 7.42 7.47 7.24 6.98 6.81 6.73 6.77 6.89 6.82 7.28 6.80

 Crude Oil Net Imports (c) ........................................ 7.11 6.93 7.15 6.78 6.84 6.74 6.94 6.52 6.67 7.28 7.54 6.68 6.99 6.76 7.04

 SPR Net Withdrawals ............................................. 0.00 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.03 -0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 -0.01 0.00

 Commercial Inventory Net Withdrawals ................. -0.33 0.01 0.25 -0.33 -0.91 0.06 0.12 0.15 -0.27 0.11 0.15 0.14 -0.10 -0.14 0.03

 Crude Oil Adjustment (d) ........................................ 0.27 0.27 0.12 0.25 0.20 0.30 0.36 0.15 0.19 0.19 0.21 0.15 0.23 0.25 0.19

 Total Crude Oil Input to Refineries ............................. 15.19 15.88 16.36 15.96 15.53 16.48 16.58 15.84 15.50 16.38 16.62 15.96 15.85 16.11 16.12

 Other Supply

 Refinery Processing Gain ....................................... 1.05 1.07 1.10 1.10 0.99 1.02 1.08 1.08 1.05 1.08 1.11 1.09 1.08 1.04 1.08

 Natural Gas Plant Liquids Production .................... 2.75 3.00 3.15 3.16 3.09 3.27 3.34 3.39 3.41 3.55 3.66 3.80 3.01 3.27 3.61

 Renewables and Oxygenate Production (e) ........... 1.01 1.06 1.06 1.08 1.05 1.10 1.10 1.08 1.09 1.08 1.09 1.07 1.05 1.08 1.08

 Fuel Ethanol Production ...................................... 0.91 0.94 0.93 0.96 0.96 0.96 0.96 0.94 0.97 0.95 0.96 0.94 0.93 0.95 0.95

 Petroleum Products Adjustment (f) ........................ 0.20 0.23 0.22 0.24 0.20 0.21 0.22 0.22 0.21 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.22 0.21 0.22

 Product Net Imports (c) ........................................... -1.73 -1.74 -2.11 -2.13 -1.89 -2.12 -2.30 -2.54 -2.24 -2.45 -2.69 -2.81 -1.93 -2.21 -2.55

 Hydrocarbon Gas Liquids .................................... -0.36 -0.57 -0.66 -0.64 -0.68 -0.80 -0.90 -1.00 -1.01 -1.11 -1.24 -1.25 -0.56 -0.85 -1.15

 Unfinished Oils .................................................... 0.34 0.43 0.34 0.37 0.26 0.28 0.38 0.38 0.39 0.44 0.44 0.38 0.37 0.33 0.41

 Other HC/Oxygenates .......................................... -0.09 -0.09 -0.08 -0.09 -0.08 -0.09 -0.06 -0.06 -0.09 -0.07 -0.05 -0.04 -0.09 -0.07 -0.06

 Motor Gasoline Blend Comp. .............................. 0.30 0.58 0.46 0.39 0.41 0.52 0.55 0.40 0.41 0.61 0.44 0.40 0.44 0.47 0.46

 Finished Motor Gasoline ...................................... -0.40 -0.37 -0.33 -0.47 -0.44 -0.32 -0.42 -0.52 -0.38 -0.47 -0.37 -0.47 -0.39 -0.42 -0.42

 Jet Fuel ................................................................ -0.07 -0.02 -0.09 -0.09 -0.06 0.01 -0.05 -0.01 -0.03 -0.06 -0.01 0.00 -0.07 -0.03 -0.03

 Distillate Fuel Oil ................................................. -0.67 -1.00 -1.07 -0.89 -0.67 -1.05 -1.11 -0.99 -0.76 -0.98 -1.10 -1.05 -0.91 -0.96 -0.98

 Residual Fuel Oil ................................................. -0.23 -0.18 -0.17 -0.18 -0.13 -0.21 -0.19 -0.21 -0.24 -0.26 -0.26 -0.22 -0.19 -0.19 -0.24

 Other Oils (g) ....................................................... -0.55 -0.52 -0.50 -0.53 -0.50 -0.46 -0.50 -0.54 -0.53 -0.54 -0.55 -0.55 -0.53 -0.50 -0.54

 Product Inventory Net Withdrawals ........................ 0.35 -0.72 -0.47 0.11 0.36 -0.72 -0.35 0.48 0.31 -0.37 -0.21 0.38 -0.18 -0.06 0.03

 Total Supply ............................................................... 18.82 18.77 19.31 19.51 19.32 19.25 19.67 19.56 19.33 19.49 19.80 19.73 19.11 19.45 19.59

Consumption (million barrels per day)

 Hydrocarbon Gas Liquids ....................................... 2.70 2.12 2.32 2.66 2.72 2.27 2.39 2.71 2.77 2.38 2.46 2.80 2.45 2.52 2.60

 Unfinished Oils ....................................................... -0.07 -0.03 -0.03 -0.02 -0.05 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 -0.04 0.02 0.01

 Motor Gasoline ....................................................... 8.54 9.01 9.13 9.00 8.81 9.26 9.32 9.05 8.87 9.24 9.31 9.07 8.92 9.11 9.12

 Fuel Ethanol blended into Motor Gasoline .......... 0.84 0.89 0.89 0.90 0.87 0.92 0.92 0.89 0.87 0.91 0.93 0.90 0.88 0.90 0.90

 Jet Fuel ................................................................... 1.39 1.47 1.52 1.50 1.45 1.54 1.60 1.51 1.45 1.53 1.58 1.54 1.47 1.53 1.52

 Distillate Fuel Oil .................................................... 4.19 3.95 3.89 4.12 4.27 3.88 3.84 4.05 4.15 4.03 3.97 4.10 4.04 4.01 4.06

 Residual Fuel Oil .................................................... 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.28 0.24 0.19 0.24 0.22 0.22 0.20 0.19 0.20 0.26 0.22 0.20

 Other Oils (g) .......................................................... 1.83 2.01 2.24 1.96 1.85 2.06 2.24 1.99 1.89 2.11 2.27 2.00 2.01 2.03 2.07

 Total Consumption .................................................... 18.82 18.77 19.31 19.51 19.29 19.25 19.67 19.56 19.33 19.49 19.80 19.73 19.11 19.44 19.59

Total Petroleum and Other Liquids Net Imports .... 5.38 5.20 5.04 4.65 4.95 4.61 4.64 3.98 4.43 4.82 4.85 3.88 5.07 4.54 4.50

End-of-period Inventories (million barrels)

 Commercial Inventory

 Crude Oil (excluding SPR) ...................................... 386.7 386.0 363.3 393.3 474.8 469.5 458.4 444.3 468.9 459.3 445.3 432.5 393.3 444.3 432.5

 Hydrocarbon Gas Liquids ....................................... 99.5 166.1 211.7 175.4 138.8 196.3 226.0 179.1 147.3 186.9 209.8 167.9 175.4 179.1 167.9

 Unfinished Oils ....................................................... 91.9 87.6 84.3 78.3 84.7 86.0 88.5 82.2 92.1 89.2 87.0 81.7 78.3 82.2 81.7

 Other HC/Oxygenates ............................................. 22.7 23.3 22.4 23.3 26.7 25.0 24.7 25.0 27.1 25.9 25.2 25.4 23.3 25.0 25.4

 Total Motor Gasoline .............................................. 221.6 219.3 212.5 240.4 231.5 221.0 222.4 231.7 229.4 223.2 219.9 232.7 240.4 231.7 232.7

 Finished Motor Gasoline ...................................... 34.4 28.8 28.4 31.2 26.9 25.7 28.3 28.9 26.6 26.3 25.7 27.2 31.2 28.9 27.2

 Motor Gasoline Blend Comp. .............................. 187.2 190.5 184.1 209.1 204.6 195.4 194.1 202.8 202.8 196.9 194.3 205.5 209.1 202.8 205.5

 Jet Fuel ................................................................... 36.4 37.1 39.8 38.3 37.2 43.7 40.2 37.6 37.9 39.0 41.8 38.3 38.3 37.6 38.3

 Distillate Fuel Oil .................................................... 115.2 121.6 131.4 136.3 128.3 139.4 151.3 152.9 138.9 144.9 153.2 154.5 136.3 152.9 154.5

 Residual Fuel Oil .................................................... 36.0 36.6 36.6 33.7 38.1 41.8 39.7 38.5 38.5 38.5 36.9 37.2 33.7 38.5 37.2

 Other Oils (g) .......................................................... 52.9 50.6 46.7 49.6 57.3 54.6 47.0 48.3 55.7 53.5 46.6 48.0 49.6 48.3 48.0

 Total Commercial Inventory ....................................... 1,063 1,128 1,149 1,169 1,217 1,277 1,298 1,240 1,236 1,260 1,266 1,218 1,169 1,240 1,218

 Crude Oil in SPR ....................................................... 696 691 691 691 691 694 695 695 695 695 695 695 691 695 695

(e) Renewables and oxygenate production includes pentanes plus, oxygenates (excluding fuel ethanol), and renewable fuels.

Table 4a. U.S. Petroleum and Other Liquids Supply, Consumption, and Inventories

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook - October 2015

2014 2015 2016 Year

- = no data available

(a) Includes lease condensate.

(b) Crude oil production from U.S. Federal leases in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM).

(c) Net imports equals gross imports minus gross exports.

(d) Crude oil adjustment balances supply and consumption and was previously referred to as "Unaccounted for Crude Oil."

Petroleum Supply Annual , DOE/EIA-0340/2; and Weekly Petroleum Status Report , DOE/EIA-0208. 

Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding. 

Projections: EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.

(f) Petroleum products adjustment includes hydrogen/oxygenates/renewables/other hydrocarbons, motor gasoline blend components, and finished motor gasoline.

(g) "Other Oils" inludes aviation gasoline blend components, finished aviation gasoline, kerosene, petrochemical feedstocks, special naphthas, lubricants, waxes, petroleum coke, asphalt and road oil, still 

gas, and miscellaneous products.

Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.

SPR: Strategic Petroleum Reserve

HC: Hydrocarbons

Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports: Petroleum Supply Monthly , DOE/EIA-0109; 
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 2014 2015 2016

HGL Production

 Natural Gas Processing Plants

 Ethane ............................................................. 1.05 1.11 1.11 1.09 1.05 1.10 1.14 1.21 1.27 1.32 1.36 1.48 1.09 1.13 1.36

 Propane ........................................................... 0.88 0.96 1.03 1.06 1.07 1.12 1.12 1.13 1.12 1.15 1.18 1.22 0.98 1.11 1.17

 Butanes ........................................................... 0.48 0.53 0.57 0.59 0.58 0.62 0.63 0.61 0.60 0.63 0.65 0.65 0.54 0.61 0.63

 Natural Gasoline (Pentanes Plus) ................... 0.34 0.39 0.43 0.42 0.39 0.44 0.45 0.43 0.42 0.45 0.47 0.45 0.39 0.43 0.45

 Refinery and Blender Net Production

 Ethane/Ethylene .............................................. 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01

 Propane/Propylene ......................................... 0.57 0.60 0.59 0.59 0.54 0.58 0.58 0.59 0.58 0.61 0.60 0.59 0.59 0.57 0.59

 Butanes/Butylenes .......................................... -0.05 0.27 0.21 -0.18 -0.08 0.27 0.19 -0.17 -0.03 0.26 0.18 -0.17 0.06 0.05 0.06

 Renewable Fuels and Oxygenate Plant Net Production

 Natural Gasoline (Pentanes Plus) ................... -0.02 -0.02 -0.02 -0.02 -0.02 -0.02 -0.02 -0.02 -0.02 -0.02 -0.02 -0.02 -0.02 -0.02 -0.02

HGL Net Imports

 Ethane ................................................................ -0.02 -0.02 -0.05 -0.06 -0.06 -0.07 -0.07 -0.11 -0.12 -0.15 -0.19 -0.28 -0.04 -0.08 -0.18

 Propane/Propylene ............................................ -0.17 -0.34 -0.36 -0.39 -0.40 -0.49 -0.52 -0.61 -0.55 -0.62 -0.66 -0.69 -0.32 -0.51 -0.63

 Butanes/Butylenes ............................................. -0.04 -0.06 -0.09 -0.03 -0.06 -0.09 -0.11 -0.09 -0.14 -0.15 -0.17 -0.08 -0.06 -0.09 -0.13

 Natural Gasoline (Pentanes Plus) ...................... -0.13 -0.16 -0.16 -0.15 -0.17 -0.15 -0.19 -0.19 -0.21 -0.19 -0.21 -0.20 -0.15 -0.17 -0.20

HGL Refinery and Blender Net Inputs

 Butanes/Butylenes ............................................. 0.37 0.28 0.30 0.48 0.40 0.27 0.31 0.42 0.35 0.29 0.30 0.42 0.36 0.35 0.34

 Natural Gasoline (Pentanes Plus) ...................... 0.14 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.15 0.14 0.17 0.18 0.17 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.15 0.16 0.18

HGL Consumption

 Ethane/Ethylene ................................................. 1.04 0.99 1.10 1.06 1.03 1.02 1.10 1.14 1.13 1.14 1.20 1.21 1.05 1.07 1.17

 Propane/Propylene ............................................ 1.46 0.91 1.01 1.30 1.43 0.92 1.01 1.29 1.40 0.97 0.99 1.28 1.17 1.16 1.16

 Butanes/Butylenes ............................................. 0.15 0.18 0.17 0.22 0.16 0.24 0.22 0.22 0.19 0.23 0.22 0.23 0.18 0.21 0.22

 Natural Gasoline (Pentanes Plus) ...................... 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.08 0.10 0.09 0.06 0.06 0.04 0.05 0.05 0.06 0.05 0.08 0.05

HGL Inventories (million barrels)

 Ethane/Ethylene ................................................. 30.03 37.15 38.95 36.45 31.38 31.65 29.73 28.41 27.63 32.04 30.94 30.35 35.67 30.28 30.24

 Propane/Propylene ............................................ 28.81 57.90 81.41 77.95 58.10 84.20 99.19 82.01 59.59 74.47 86.25 70.59 77.95 82.01 70.59

 Butanes/Butylenes ............................................. 26.31 52.35 72.40 41.95 32.46 59.42 76.14 50.15 40.28 59.82 71.85 47.57 41.95 50.15 47.57

 Natural Gasoline (Pentanes Plus) ...................... 13.99 15.77 20.39 20.61 17.16 20.51 21.40 20.06 18.62 19.92 21.11 20.33 20.61 20.06 20.33

Refinery and Blender Net Inputs

 Crude OIl .............................................................. 15.19 15.88 16.36 15.96 15.53 16.48 16.58 15.84 15.50 16.38 16.62 15.96 15.85 16.11 16.12

 Hydrocarbon Gas Liquids .................................... 0.52 0.43 0.46 0.64 0.54 0.40 0.48 0.60 0.52 0.47 0.48 0.60 0.51 0.50 0.52

 Other Hydrocarbons/Oxygenates ........................ 1.09 1.16 1.16 1.14 1.12 1.18 1.21 1.20 1.16 1.20 1.24 1.21 1.14 1.18 1.20

 Unfinished Oils ..................................................... 0.26 0.51 0.41 0.45 0.24 0.22 0.32 0.41 0.28 0.47 0.45 0.42 0.41 0.30 0.40

 Motor Gasoline Blend Components ..................... 0.55 1.00 0.80 0.33 0.72 0.91 0.76 0.48 0.60 0.85 0.63 0.45 0.67 0.72 0.63

 Aviation Gasoline Blend Components ................. 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Total Refinery and Blender Net Inputs .................... 17.60 18.98 19.18 18.51 18.14 19.18 19.35 18.52 18.06 19.37 19.43 18.64 18.57 18.80 18.88

Refinery Processing Gain .................................. 1.05 1.07 1.10 1.10 0.99 1.02 1.08 1.08 1.05 1.08 1.11 1.09 1.08 1.04 1.08

Refinery and Blender Net Production

 Hydrocarbon Gas Liquids .................................... 0.53 0.87 0.80 0.41 0.47 0.86 0.77 0.42 0.56 0.87 0.78 0.42 0.65 0.63 0.66

 Finished Motor Gasoline ...................................... 9.11 9.77 9.71 9.69 9.48 9.83 9.94 9.73 9.40 9.87 9.83 9.71 9.57 9.74 9.71

 Jet Fuel ................................................................. 1.45 1.50 1.64 1.57 1.50 1.61 1.61 1.49 1.48 1.60 1.62 1.50 1.54 1.55 1.55

 Distillate Fuel ........................................................ 4.69 4.97 5.00 5.00 4.82 4.99 5.03 5.01 4.71 5.03 5.11 5.12 4.92 4.96 4.99

 Residual Fuel ....................................................... 0.46 0.44 0.42 0.43 0.43 0.44 0.42 0.42 0.45 0.45 0.43 0.42 0.44 0.42 0.44

 Other Oils (a) ........................................................ 2.42 2.50 2.70 2.52 2.44 2.48 2.65 2.54 2.50 2.63 2.75 2.56 2.54 2.53 2.61

Total Refinery and Blender Net Production ............ 18.65 20.05 20.28 19.62 19.13 20.20 20.42 19.61 19.11 20.46 20.53 19.73 19.65 19.85 19.96

Refinery Distillation Inputs ................................ 15.52 16.18 16.65 16.26 15.78 16.69 16.85 16.16 15.83 16.62 16.90 16.27 16.16 16.37 16.41

Refinery Operable Distillation Capacity ........... 17.93 17.91 17.83 17.82 17.88 17.98 18.01 18.02 18.05 18.05 18.21 18.30 17.87 17.97 18.16

Refinery Distillation Utilization Factor .............. 0.87 0.90 0.93 0.91 0.88 0.93 0.94 0.90 0.88 0.92 0.93 0.89 0.90 0.91 0.90

Table 4b. U.S. Hydrocarbon Gas Liquids (HGL) and Petroleum Refinery Balances (million barrels per day, except inventories and utilization factor)

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook - October 2015

2014 2015 2016 Year

Projections: EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.

- = no data available

(a) "Other Oils" includes aviation gasoline blend components, finished aviation gasoline, kerosene, petrochemical feedstocks, special naphthas, lubricants, waxes, petroleum coke, asphalt and road oil, still 

gas, and miscellaneous products.

Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.

Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports: Petroleum Supply Monthly , DOE/EIA-0109; 

Petroleum Supply Annual , DOE/EIA-0340/2; Weekly Petroleum Status Report , DOE/EIA-0208.

Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding. 
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 2014 2015 2016

Prices (cents per gallon)

 Refiner Wholesale Price ...................... 272 298 276 203 159 201 179 138 149 184 181 155 262 170 167

 Gasoline Regular Grade Retail Prices Including Taxes

 PADD 1 .............................................. 344 365 348 292 228 259 247 211 220 251 250 231 337 237 238

 PADD 2 .............................................. 337 365 343 279 216 256 253 206 212 252 249 220 331 233 234

 PADD 3 .............................................. 318 345 329 265 204 240 229 189 197 232 230 204 314 215 216

 PADD 4 .............................................. 326 351 363 297 207 261 277 216 201 242 252 226 335 241 230

 PADD 5 .............................................. 362 401 386 315 271 328 327 246 241 281 281 257 366 293 266

 U.S. Average ................................... 340 368 350 288 227 267 260 212 217 253 252 228 336 242 238

 Gasoline All Grades Including Taxes 348 375 358 296 236 275 269 221 225 262 261 236 344 251 246

End-of-period Inventories (million barrels)

 Total Gasoline Inventories

 PADD 1 .............................................. 57.7 63.1 55.7 62.1 64.5 61.3 59.6 60.1 60.8 62.0 57.6 60.4 62.1 60.1 60.4

 PADD 2 .............................................. 49.1 49.7 47.1 52.4 52.9 50.4 48.0 50.2 51.2 48.8 49.3 50.5 52.4 50.2 50.5

 PADD 3 .............................................. 78.5 73.2 74.9 84.2 78.4 74.6 77.9 81.2 79.7 77.5 78.1 82.2 84.2 81.2 82.2

 PADD 4 .............................................. 6.4 6.1 7.4 7.9 6.5 6.8 7.1 7.7 7.2 6.9 6.9 7.7 7.9 7.7 7.7

 PADD 5 .............................................. 29.9 27.1 27.3 33.7 29.2 28.0 29.8 32.4 30.5 28.1 28.0 31.9 33.7 32.4 31.9

 U.S. Total ........................................ 221.6 219.3 212.5 240.4 231.5 221.0 222.4 231.7 229.4 223.2 219.9 232.7 240.4 231.7 232.7

 Finished Gasoline Inventories

 U.S. Total ........................................ 34.4 28.8 28.4 31.2 26.9 25.7 28.3 28.9 26.6 26.3 25.7 27.2 31.2 28.9 27.2

 Gasoline Blending Components Inventories

 U.S. Total ........................................ 187.2 190.5 184.1 209.1 204.6 195.4 194.1 202.8 202.8 196.9 194.3 205.5 209.1 202.8 205.5

Table 4c. U.S. Regional Motor Gasoline Prices and Inventories

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook - October 2015

2014 2015 2016 Year

Petroleum Supply Monthly , DOE/EIA-0109; Petroleum Supply Annual , DOE/EIA-0340/2; and Weekly Petroleum Status Report , DOE/EIA-0208.

Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding. 

Projections: EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.

- = no data available

Prices are not adjusted for inflation.

Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.

Regions refer to Petroleum Administration for Defense Districts (PADD).

See “Petroleum for Administration Defense District” in EIA’s Energy Glossary (http://www.eia.doe.gov/glossary/index.html) for a list of States in each region.

Historical data : Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports: Petroleum Marketing Monthly , DOE/EIA-0380; 
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 2014 2015 2016

Supply (billion cubic feet per day)

 Total Marketed Production ............ 71.75 74.09 76.06 77.60 78.12 79.12 79.37 79.61 80.19 80.41 80.52 81.20 74.89 79.06 80.58

 Alaska ...................................... 0.99 0.93 0.87 0.99 0.99 0.93 0.85 0.93 0.98 0.83 0.76 0.91 0.95 0.93 0.87

 Federal GOM (a) ....................... 3.31 3.52 3.51 3.43 3.37 3.69 3.60 3.20 3.25 3.20 3.03 2.99 3.44 3.46 3.12

 Lower 48 States (excl GOM) ..... 67.45 69.64 71.68 73.19 73.76 74.50 74.93 75.48 75.96 76.37 76.74 77.29 70.51 74.67 76.59

 Total Dry Gas Production ............. 67.53 69.73 71.59 73.04 73.68 74.42 74.68 74.90 75.45 75.65 75.76 76.40 70.49 74.42 75.82

 LNG Gross Imports ..................... 0.17 0.17 0.15 0.16 0.43 0.08 0.18 0.17 0.14 0.16 0.17 0.15 0.16 0.21 0.15

 LNG Gross Exports ..................... 0.03 0.02 0.09 0.03 0.06 0.06 0.03 0.09 0.68 0.69 0.72 1.07 0.04 0.06 0.79

 Pipeline Gross Imports ................ 8.44 6.52 6.47 7.47 8.36 6.68 6.42 6.83 7.25 6.22 6.54 6.73 7.22 7.07 6.68

 Pipeline Gross Exports ................ 4.67 3.89 3.85 4.02 4.86 4.37 4.63 4.94 5.14 4.95 5.13 5.29 4.10 4.70 5.13

 Supplemental Gaseous Fuels ...... 0.16 0.16 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.16 0.16 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.16 0.16 0.17

 Net Inventory Withdrawals ........... 22.75 -12.71 -12.96 0.54 18.48 -12.97 -10.37 2.24 16.57 -10.32 -9.52 3.43 -0.69 -0.73 0.02

Total Supply ................................... 94.35 59.96 61.47 77.33 96.20 63.94 66.41 79.27 93.75 66.24 67.26 80.50 73.20 76.38 76.92

Balancing Item (b) .......................... 0.48 0.93 -0.11 -1.49 0.54 0.08 -0.02 -1.28 -0.33 -0.92 0.01 -0.93 -0.06 -0.18 -0.54

Total Primary Supply ....................... 94.83 60.89 61.36 75.84 96.74 64.01 66.39 77.99 93.42 65.32 67.28 79.57 73.15 76.20 76.38

Consumption (billion cubic feet per day)

 Residential ................................... 28.78 7.53 3.69 16.01 27.53 6.90 3.84 15.81 25.55 7.58 4.10 16.40 13.94 13.46 13.39

 Commercial ................................. 16.48 6.26 4.61 10.77 16.01 5.85 4.43 10.39 14.53 5.96 4.60 10.70 9.50 9.14 8.94

 Industrial ..................................... 22.85 19.94 19.55 21.24 22.69 19.62 19.45 22.16 23.21 20.83 20.65 22.71 20.89 20.97 21.85

 Electric Power (c) ......................... 19.68 21.12 27.34 21.09 23.10 25.20 32.15 22.70 22.65 24.40 31.31 22.69 22.33 25.80 25.27

 Lease and Plant Fuel ................... 3.94 4.07 4.17 4.26 4.29 4.34 4.36 4.37 4.40 4.41 4.42 4.46 4.11 4.34 4.42

 Pipeline and Distribution Use ....... 3.01 1.88 1.90 2.37 3.03 2.00 2.08 2.47 2.98 2.04 2.10 2.52 2.29 2.39 2.41

 Vehicle Use ................................. 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10

Total Consumption ......................... 94.83 60.89 61.36 75.84 96.74 64.01 66.39 77.99 93.42 65.32 67.28 79.57 73.15 76.20 76.38

End-of-period Inventories (billion cubic feet)

 Working Gas Inventory ................ 857 2,005 3,187 3,141 1,483 2,653 3,606 3,400 1,892 2,831 3,707 3,392 3,141 3,400 3,392

 Producing Region (d) ................ 358 691 952 1,071 604 1,038 1,253 1,276 854 1,116 1,269 1,237 1,071 1,276 1,237

 East Consuming Region (d) ...... 316 952 1,753 1,607 501 1,145 1,846 1,652 716 1,253 1,887 1,641 1,607 1,652 1,641

 West Consuming Region (d) .... 184 362 482 464 378 469 507 472 322 463 551 514 464 472 514

Table 5a. U.S. Natural Gas Supply, Consumption, and Inventories

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook - October 2015

2014 2015 2016 Year

LNG: liquefied natural gas.

Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports: Natural Gas Monthly , DOE/EIA-0130; and Electric Power 

Monthly , DOE/EIA-0226.

Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding. 

Projections: EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.

- = no data available

(a) Marketed production from U.S. Federal leases in the Gulf of Mexico.

(b) The balancing item represents the difference between the sum of the components of natural gas supply and the sum of components of natural gas demand.

(c) Natural gas used for electricity generation and (a limited amount of) useful thermal output by electric utilities and independent power producers.

(d) For a list of States in each inventory region refer to Methodology for EIA Weekly Underground Natural Gas Storage Estimates (http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/oog/info/ngs/methodology.html).

Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 2014 2015 2016

Wholesale/Spot

 Henry Hub Spot Price ........ 5.36 4.75 4.08 3.91 2.99 2.83 2.84 2.92 3.09 2.99 3.14 3.35 4.52 2.89 3.14

Residential

 New England ..................... 13.65 15.98 18.01 14.41 13.09 13.33 15.98 12.88 12.33 14.03 16.75 13.25 14.52 13.27 13.16

 Middle Atlantic ................... 10.71 13.04 17.25 11.15 9.53 11.20 16.59 11.83 10.64 13.11 17.48 11.98 11.58 10.76 11.82

 E. N. Central ...................... 8.67 12.96 16.85 8.96 7.78 10.58 16.34 8.50 7.63 11.04 16.66 8.54 9.70 8.81 8.86

 W. N. Central ..................... 9.10 11.75 18.16 9.83 8.66 11.85 16.96 8.60 7.49 10.33 16.90 9.05 10.10 9.45 8.84

 S. Atlantic .......................... 11.34 16.37 22.98 12.85 10.70 16.68 22.34 12.70 11.15 16.18 22.28 12.75 13.03 12.59 12.89

 E. S. Central ...................... 9.63 14.08 19.70 11.14 9.34 14.36 19.08 10.68 8.90 13.02 18.26 10.91 11.02 10.72 10.46

 W. S. Central ..................... 8.53 14.22 20.25 11.62 8.45 13.94 18.71 9.89 7.23 12.05 17.90 10.39 10.83 10.21 9.42

 Mountain ........................... 9.07 11.22 15.15 9.86 9.57 10.87 14.78 9.58 8.69 9.64 13.45 8.85 10.13 10.17 9.24

 Pacific ................................ 10.97 11.66 12.41 11.25 11.46 11.40 11.47 9.55 9.47 10.15 10.77 9.77 11.37 10.82 9.85

 U.S. Average .................. 9.82 13.11 16.94 10.52 9.29 11.96 16.15 10.03 8.96 11.85 16.08 10.15 10.94 10.35 10.28

Commercial

 New England ..................... 11.35 12.82 11.77 11.36 10.77 10.11 9.36 9.86 10.35 10.12 10.17 10.41 11.64 10.32 10.31

 Middle Atlantic ................... 9.30 9.06 8.04 8.05 7.91 7.48 7.03 7.80 8.17 7.88 7.80 8.51 8.78 7.72 8.17

 E. N. Central ...................... 8.02 9.96 10.18 7.71 6.95 7.51 8.86 7.12 7.15 8.30 9.17 7.38 8.33 7.21 7.53

 W. N. Central ..................... 8.35 9.10 10.19 8.22 7.65 7.98 8.84 7.16 7.26 7.60 8.76 7.39 8.54 7.62 7.46

 S. Atlantic .......................... 9.23 10.56 10.90 9.47 8.48 9.21 9.66 8.89 8.94 9.66 10.35 9.41 9.69 8.84 9.37

 E. S. Central ...................... 8.90 10.71 11.17 9.58 8.54 9.62 10.00 8.76 8.16 9.02 9.76 8.98 9.57 8.89 8.70

 W. S. Central ..................... 7.49 9.24 9.26 8.25 7.15 7.21 7.87 6.97 6.78 7.46 8.06 7.40 8.23 7.22 7.24

 Mountain ........................... 7.81 8.74 9.90 8.47 8.27 8.34 9.18 7.93 7.49 7.65 8.85 7.88 8.40 8.26 7.78

 Pacific ................................ 9.29 9.26 9.56 9.28 9.20 8.43 8.63 8.61 8.75 8.61 8.94 8.69 9.32 8.76 8.73

 U.S. Average .................. 8.65 9.66 9.69 8.52 7.94 8.13 8.54 7.86 7.88 8.30 8.90 8.20 8.87 8.01 8.15

Industrial

 New England ..................... 10.03 9.97 8.04 9.09 9.10 7.61 6.64 8.20 8.67 8.12 7.98 8.98 9.45 8.21 8.52

 Middle Atlantic ................... 9.28 8.78 8.15 7.98 8.31 7.56 7.56 7.91 7.96 7.23 7.58 8.22 8.77 8.01 7.85

 E. N. Central ...................... 8.03 8.87 7.89 6.94 6.41 5.65 5.63 5.77 6.28 5.94 6.13 6.24 7.84 6.03 6.20

 W. N. Central ..................... 7.34 6.28 5.91 6.38 5.81 4.59 4.67 5.13 5.32 4.64 4.70 5.17 6.57 5.12 5.00

 S. Atlantic .......................... 6.91 6.42 5.92 5.99 5.46 4.50 4.73 5.02 5.17 4.98 5.16 5.48 6.34 4.96 5.21

 E. S. Central ...................... 6.37 6.14 5.31 5.50 5.15 4.28 4.33 4.66 5.00 4.65 4.82 5.14 5.86 4.64 4.91

 W. S. Central ..................... 5.15 4.91 4.52 4.26 3.21 2.92 3.08 3.06 3.14 3.11 3.42 3.54 4.71 3.07 3.31

 Mountain ........................... 6.55 6.68 6.95 6.65 6.61 6.22 6.24 5.99 5.46 5.14 5.76 5.83 6.69 6.27 5.56

 Pacific ................................ 7.84 7.63 7.70 7.54 7.32 6.57 6.50 6.20 5.99 5.83 6.37 6.52 7.68 6.67 6.18

 U.S. Average .................. 6.19 5.63 5.08 5.18 4.57 3.68 3.72 3.99 4.29 3.85 4.04 4.44 5.55 4.01 4.17

Table 5b. U.S. Regional Natural Gas Prices (dollars per thousand cubic feet

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook - October 2015

2014 2015 2016 Year

Natural gas Henry Hub spot price from Reuter's News Service (http://www.reuters.com).

Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding. 

Projections: EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.

- = no data available

Prices are not adjusted for inflation.

Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.

Regions refer to U.S. Census divisions. 

See "Census division" in EIA’s Energy Glossary (http://www.eia.doe.gov/glossary/index.html) for a list of States in each region.

Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the Natural Gas Monthly , DOE/EIA-0130.
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 2014 2015 2016

Supply (million short tons)

 Production ........................................... 245.2 245.8 255.3 253.3 240.2 210.7 232.1 227.6 225.0 213.3 226.1 218.6 999.7 910.6 882.9

 Appalachia ....................................... 67.5 69.7 67.5 63.5 62.3 57.7 60.3 56.8 59.8 58.3 54.3 52.9 268.2 237.1 225.4

 Interior .............................................. 46.3 44.8 49.3 48.3 45.2 39.7 44.8 45.6 43.9 43.7 46.0 44.3 188.7 175.4 177.9

 Western ........................................... 131.4 131.4 138.5 141.5 132.7 113.2 127.0 125.2 121.3 111.2 125.8 121.3 542.8 498.1 479.6

 Primary Inventory Withdrawals ............. -0.5 0.6 2.4 -1.5 -0.7 0.3 3.1 -1.6 -1.0 0.7 2.9 -1.6 0.9 1.1 1.0

 Imports ................................................ 2.4 3.6 3.2 2.2 3.0 2.6 3.0 2.8 2.2 2.4 3.3 2.9 11.3 11.5 10.8

 Exports ................................................ 27.7 24.6 22.7 22.3 22.0 19.8 16.4 19.0 15.2 18.7 16.3 17.8 97.3 77.2 68.2

 Metallurgical Coal ............................. 16.9 15.8 15.2 15.2 13.5 12.7 9.6 10.9 10.7 11.3 9.4 10.6 63.0 46.7 42.0

 Steam Coal ...................................... 10.9 8.8 7.5 7.1 8.5 7.0 6.8 8.1 4.5 7.4 6.9 7.2 34.3 30.4 26.1

Total Primary Supply .............................. 219.4 225.4 238.2 231.6 220.5 193.9 221.8 209.8 211.0 197.6 215.9 202.0 914.6 846.0 826.5

 Secondary Inventory Withdrawals ........ 30.6 -14.8 8.4 -28.0 -3.3 -13.2 16.2 -3.8 0.1 -6.0 14.1 -4.8 -3.8 -4.1 3.4

 Waste Coal (a) .................................... 3.2 2.8 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 11.2 10.8 11.1

Total Supply ........................................... 253.2 213.4 249.2 206.2 219.9 183.4 240.7 208.7 213.8 194.4 232.8 200.0 922.0 852.7 841.0

Consumption (million short tons)

 Coke Plants ......................................... 4.8 5.1 5.2 5.2 4.4 4.4 5.1 5.0 4.3 4.0 5.0 4.9 20.4 18.9 18.2

 Electric Power Sector (b) ..................... 231.3 196.0 231.2 193.0 196.5 174.6 218.0 192.4 198.0 179.6 217.0 183.7 851.4 781.4 778.3

 Retail and Other Industry ..................... 12.0 10.9 11.0 11.1 11.4 10.4 10.7 11.3 11.6 10.8 10.8 11.3 45.0 43.8 44.5

 Residential and Commercial ............. 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.6 0.5 0.7 2.2 2.7 2.6

 Other Industrial ................................. 11.3 10.5 10.6 10.4 10.6 9.8 10.1 10.5 10.7 10.2 10.3 10.7 42.8 41.0 41.9

Total Consumption ................................ 248.2 212.0 247.4 209.3 212.3 189.4 233.7 208.7 213.8 194.4 232.8 200.0 916.9 844.0 841.0

Discrepancy (c) 5.0 1.3 1.8 -3.0 7.7 -6.0 7.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.1 8.7 0.0

End-of-period Inventories (million short tons)

 Primary Inventories (d) ......................... 46.2 45.6 43.2 44.7 45.5 45.2 42.1 43.7 44.7 44.0 41.1 42.7 44.7 43.7 42.7

 Secondary Inventories ......................... 124.0 138.9 130.5 158.4 161.7 174.9 158.7 162.5 162.4 168.4 154.3 159.1 158.4 162.5 159.1

 Electric Power Sector ........................ 118.3 132.9 123.8 151.4 155.6 168.0 151.2 154.7 155.6 161.0 146.3 150.9 151.4 154.7 150.9

 Retail and General Industry .............. 3.5 3.6 4.4 4.8 4.1 4.5 5.1 5.5 4.8 5.0 5.6 5.9 4.8 5.5 5.9

 Coke Plants ...................................... 1.8 1.9 1.8 1.9 1.6 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.6 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.8

Coal Market Indicators

 Coal Miner Productivity

 (Tons per hour) ................................. 5.47 5.47 5.47 5.47 5.61 5.61 5.61 5.61 5.46 5.46 5.46 5.46 5.47 5.61 5.46

 Total Raw Steel Production

 (Million short tons per day) ................ 0.262 0.263 0.271 0.262 0.247 0.242 0.248 0.228 0.240 0.235 0.240 0.221 0.264 0.241 0.234

 Cost of Coal to Electric Utilities

 (Dollars per million Btu) .................... 2.33 2.39 2.37 2.37 2.26 2.25 2.25 2.26 2.25 2.29 2.28 2.24 2.36 2.25 2.26

Table 6. U.S. Coal Supply, Consumption, and Inventories

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook - October 2015

2014 2015 2016 Year

Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports: Quarterly Coal Report , DOE/EIA-0121; and Electric Power Monthly , 

DOE/EIA-0226.

Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding. 

Projections: EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.

- = no data available

(a) Waste coal includes waste coal and cloal slurry reprocessed into briquettes.

(b) Coal used for electricity generation and (a limited amount of) useful thermal output by electric utilities and independent power producers.

(c) The discrepancy reflects an unaccounted-for shipper and receiver reporting difference, assumed to be zero in the forecast period.

(d) Primary stocks are held at the mines and distribution points.

Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 2014 2015 2016

 Electricity Generation ......................... 11.49 10.77 12.06 10.54 11.33 10.74 12.42 10.52 11.02 10.91 12.43 10.66 11.21 11.25 11.26

 Electric Power Sector (a) ................ 11.04 10.36 11.62 10.11 10.91 10.33 11.97 10.10 10.61 10.50 11.98 10.23 10.78 10.83 10.83

 Comm. and Indus. Sectors (b) ....... 0.44 0.41 0.44 0.42 0.42 0.41 0.45 0.43 0.41 0.40 0.45 0.44 0.43 0.43 0.42

 Net Imports ....................................... 0.11 0.12 0.16 0.14 0.17 0.20 0.18 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.14 0.09 0.13 0.16 0.11

 Total Supply ....................................... 11.59 10.89 12.22 10.68 11.50 10.94 12.59 10.63 11.13 11.02 12.57 10.75 11.35 11.42 11.37

 Losses and Unaccounted for (c) ...... 0.72 0.86 0.76 0.73 0.77 0.90 0.83 0.67 0.59 0.90 0.78 0.71 0.77 0.79 0.75

 Retail Sales ........................................ 10.48 9.67 11.07 9.58 10.36 9.68 11.37 9.59 10.18 9.76 11.40 9.66 10.20 10.25 10.25

 Residential Sector ........................... 4.31 3.36 4.26 3.45 4.19 3.35 4.50 3.44 3.98 3.38 4.45 3.45 3.84 3.87 3.81

 Commercial Sector ......................... 3.62 3.65 4.06 3.54 3.61 3.67 4.13 3.57 3.62 3.70 4.18 3.61 3.72 3.75 3.78

 Industrial Sector .............................. 2.52 2.65 2.73 2.57 2.53 2.64 2.71 2.56 2.55 2.66 2.75 2.58 2.62 2.61 2.63

 Transportation Sector ..................... 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02

 Direct Use (d) ..................................... 0.39 0.36 0.39 0.37 0.37 0.36 0.39 0.37 0.36 0.35 0.39 0.38 0.38 0.37 0.37

 Total Consumption ............................ 10.87 10.04 11.46 9.95 10.73 10.04 11.76 9.96 10.54 10.11 11.79 10.04 10.58 10.62 10.62

 Average residential electricity

 usage per customer (kWh) ................ 3,022 2,371 3,038 2,454 2,914 2,347 3,183 2,424 2,767 2,344 3,113 2,405 10,885 10,867 10,629

Prices

 Coal ................................................. 2.33 2.39 2.37 2.37 2.26 2.25 2.25 2.26 2.25 2.29 2.28 2.24 2.36 2.25 2.26

 Natural Gas ..................................... 6.82 4.93 4.25 4.30 4.09 3.12 3.38 3.83 3.96 3.63 3.78 4.19 4.98 3.57 3.87

 Residual Fuel Oil ............................. 19.97 20.44 19.75 14.72 10.82 11.64 11.28 10.03 10.22 11.50 11.86 11.64 19.18 10.90 11.29

 Distillate Fuel Oil .............................. 23.40 22.77 21.88 18.72 15.39 15.18 13.51 14.04 14.67 15.34 15.68 16.32 22.34 14.74 15.44

 Residential Sector ........................... 11.91 12.73 13.01 12.38 12.24 12.85 12.89 12.20 12.20 12.90 13.14 12.48 12.50 12.55 12.69

 Commercial Sector ......................... 10.55 10.68 11.11 10.59 10.50 10.56 11.23 10.82 10.75 10.83 11.49 11.02 10.75 10.79 11.04

 Industrial Sector .............................. 6.99 6.92 7.36 6.76 6.76 6.73 7.39 6.89 6.90 6.89 7.51 6.95 7.01 6.95 7.07

Prices are not adjusted for inflation.

Table 7a. U.S. Electricity Industry Overview

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook - October 2015

2014 2015 2016 Year

Electricity Supply (billion kilowatthours per day)

Electricity Consumption (billion kilowatthours per day unless noted)

 Power Generation Fuel Costs (dollars per million Btu)

 End-Use Prices (cents per kilowatthour)

- = no data available. kWh = kilowatthours. Btu = British thermal units.

Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports: Electric Power Monthly , DOE/EIA-0226; and Electric Power Annual , 

DOE/EIA-0348.

Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding. 

Projections: EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.

(a) Generation supplied by electricity-only and combined-heat-and-power (CHP) plants operated by electric utilities and independent power producers.

(b) Generation supplied by CHP and electricity-only plants operated by businesses in the commercial and industrial sectors, primarily for onsite use.

(c) Includes transmission and distribution losses, data collection time-frame differences, and estimation error.

(d) Direct Use represents commercial and industrial facility use of onsite net electricity generation; and electrical sales or transfers to adjacent or colocated facilities 

for which revenue information is not available. See Table 7.6 of the EIA Monthly Energy Review .

Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 2014 2015 2016

Residential Sector

 New England ............... 153 111 136 118 152 111 142 121 141 113 137 121 129 131 128

 Middle Atlantic ............. 423 315 383 323 423 321 415 324 386 316 407 321 361 371 357

 E. N. Central ................ 616 446 513 479 588 428 550 473 545 435 554 474 513 510 502

 W. N. Central ............... 352 246 293 265 325 232 309 262 316 239 309 264 289 282 282

 S. Atlantic .................... 1,080 858 1,088 861 1,072 889 1,151 862 1,000 869 1,138 862 971 993 967

 E. S. Central ................ 404 278 363 288 390 276 389 283 356 280 380 281 333 334 324

 W. S. Central ............... 617 501 731 498 602 503 778 500 573 534 754 504 587 596 591

 Mountain ...................... 238 242 321 226 234 240 332 231 245 246 348 238 257 259 269

 Pacific contiguous ....... 419 347 422 378 394 336 423 368 404 336 410 371 391 380 380

 AK and HI ..................... 14 11 12 13 13 11 12 13 13 12 12 13 13 13 13

 Total .......................... 4,315 3,355 4,260 3,449 4,194 3,348 4,502 3,437 3,978 3,379 4,450 3,448 3,844 3,870 3,815

Commercial Sector

 New England ............... 148 138 154 139 148 139 158 139 144 140 155 139 145 146 145

 Middle Atlantic ............. 442 413 461 409 444 416 469 407 439 415 468 407 431 434 432

 E. N. Central ................ 511 490 526 480 510 490 540 485 508 497 552 493 502 506 513

 W. N. Central ............... 287 273 298 272 281 269 305 273 283 274 312 278 282 282 287

 S. Atlantic .................... 803 842 920 793 805 859 934 808 809 855 943 822 840 852 857

 E. S. Central ................ 239 237 271 226 235 239 282 228 236 239 285 230 243 246 248

 W. S. Central ............... 494 521 610 504 496 529 629 510 503 538 635 519 532 541 549

 Mountain ...................... 239 259 287 243 239 256 285 244 245 261 297 250 257 256 263

 Pacific contiguous ....... 442 463 514 461 434 458 515 456 437 465 513 459 470 466 469

 AK and HI ..................... 17 16 17 17 16 16 17 17 16 16 17 17 16 16 17

 Total .......................... 3,621 3,652 4,056 3,544 3,609 3,671 4,133 3,566 3,621 3,701 4,176 3,613 3,719 3,746 3,778

Industrial Sector

 New England ............... 49 50 52 50 49 51 51 50 49 50 53 49 50 50 50

 Middle Atlantic ............. 201 198 205 194 198 196 204 197 202 202 208 197 199 199 202

 E. N. Central ................ 525 532 544 519 520 525 530 503 512 520 529 502 530 519 516

 W. N. Central ............... 231 240 253 238 237 242 254 247 242 252 267 249 241 245 252

 S. Atlantic .................... 372 397 404 383 376 407 396 376 373 399 404 381 389 389 389

 E. S. Central ................ 279 287 296 283 279 287 288 279 294 290 288 283 286 283 289

 W. S. Central ............... 431 465 471 444 428 457 485 451 440 469 487 453 453 455 462

 Mountain ...................... 210 235 250 220 217 235 248 224 219 241 258 229 229 231 237

 Pacific contiguous ....... 213 228 244 223 216 226 239 220 210 223 239 221 227 225 223

 AK and HI ..................... 13 14 14 14 13 13 14 14 13 13 14 14 14 14 14

 Total .......................... 2,522 2,646 2,734 2,567 2,531 2,641 2,709 2,562 2,553 2,660 2,749 2,577 2,618 2,611 2,635

Total All Sectors (a)

 New England ............... 352 300 344 308 350 304 353 311 336 304 347 310 326 329 324

 Middle Atlantic ............. 1,078 936 1,059 936 1,077 944 1,099 940 1,038 943 1,095 936 1,002 1,015 1,003

 E. N. Central ................ 1,654 1,469 1,584 1,480 1,620 1,445 1,622 1,464 1,567 1,453 1,638 1,471 1,547 1,537 1,532

 W. N. Central ............... 870 760 843 776 843 744 868 783 841 766 887 791 812 810 821

 S. Atlantic .................... 2,259 2,100 2,415 2,041 2,256 2,159 2,485 2,050 2,186 2,127 2,489 2,068 2,204 2,238 2,218

 E. S. Central ................ 922 803 931 797 904 802 958 789 885 809 954 794 863 863 861

 W. S. Central ............... 1,542 1,487 1,812 1,446 1,527 1,489 1,893 1,460 1,516 1,542 1,877 1,476 1,572 1,593 1,603

 Mountain ...................... 687 737 858 689 690 731 865 699 710 748 904 717 743 747 770

 Pacific contiguous ....... 1,076 1,040 1,182 1,064 1,046 1,022 1,178 1,047 1,054 1,027 1,165 1,053 1,091 1,074 1,075

 AK and HI ..................... 44 41 43 43 42 41 44 44 43 41 43 44 43 43 43

 Total .......................... 10,481 9,674 11,072 9,581 10,356 9,681 11,365 9,586 10,176 9,762 11,397 9,659 10,202 10,248 10,250

Table 7b. U.S. Regional Electricity Retail Sales (Million Kilowatthours per Day)

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook - October 2015

2014 2015 2016 Year

Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports: Electric Power Monthly , DOE/EIA-0226; and Electric 

Power Annual , DOE/EIA-0348. 

Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding. 

Projections: EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.

- = no data available

(a) Total retail sales to all sectors includes residential, commercial, industrial, and transportation sector sales.

Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.

Retail Sales represents total retail electricity sales by electric utilities and power marketers. 

Regions refer to U.S. Census divisions. 

See "Census division" in EIA’s Energy Glossary (http://www.eia.doe.gov/glossary/index.html) for a list of States in each region.
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 2014 2015 2016

Residential Sector

 New England .............. 17.53 18.03 17.60 18.24 20.42 20.31 18.08 18.36 19.20 19.17 18.79 19.34 17.82 19.28 19.12

 Middle Atlantic ............ 16.26 16.58 16.66 16.02 15.76 16.07 16.25 15.99 16.16 16.51 16.79 16.54 16.38 16.01 16.50

 E. N. Central ............... 11.56 12.96 12.98 12.73 12.22 13.19 13.08 12.82 12.48 13.51 13.54 13.34 12.50 12.80 13.20

 W. N. Central .............. 10.04 11.80 12.31 10.65 10.25 12.16 12.46 10.82 10.50 12.41 12.82 11.13 11.14 11.38 11.69

 S. Atlantic ................... 11.31 11.98 12.13 11.61 11.39 11.91 12.13 11.35 11.17 11.76 12.15 11.49 11.75 11.71 11.66

 E. S. Central ............... 10.30 11.21 10.97 10.66 10.34 11.16 10.68 10.44 10.56 11.48 11.21 11.02 10.75 10.63 11.05

 W. S. Central .............. 10.40 11.43 11.39 11.06 10.67 11.36 10.84 10.44 10.39 11.22 11.06 10.76 11.07 10.82 10.87

 Mountain ..................... 10.93 12.02 12.33 11.31 11.31 12.21 12.36 11.47 11.56 12.53 12.72 11.82 11.71 11.89 12.21

 Pacific ......................... 12.93 12.78 15.53 13.15 13.68 13.46 15.83 12.81 13.55 13.62 15.73 12.36 13.65 14.02 13.86

 U.S. Average ........... 11.91 12.73 13.01 12.38 12.24 12.85 12.89 12.20 12.20 12.90 13.14 12.48 12.50 12.55 12.69

Commercial Sector

 New England .............. 15.62 14.32 14.43 14.33 16.93 15.17 14.49 14.66 17.58 16.07 15.51 15.54 14.68 15.30 16.17

 Middle Atlantic ............ 14.29 13.32 13.94 12.94 13.18 12.98 14.15 13.37 13.35 13.31 14.45 13.58 13.64 13.44 13.69

 E. N. Central ............... 9.69 9.96 10.00 9.88 9.75 9.94 10.07 9.91 9.86 10.04 10.17 9.94 9.88 9.92 10.01

 W. N. Central .............. 8.60 9.39 9.86 8.69 8.57 9.51 10.11 8.94 8.80 9.79 10.41 9.18 9.15 9.31 9.57

 S. Atlantic ................... 9.83 9.68 9.70 9.65 9.68 9.44 9.88 9.97 9.94 9.71 10.14 10.16 9.72 9.75 9.99

 E. S. Central ............... 10.26 10.51 10.40 10.22 10.22 10.35 10.33 10.68 10.59 10.64 10.57 10.85 10.35 10.39 10.66

 W. S. Central .............. 8.13 8.34 8.30 8.15 8.05 7.90 8.17 8.17 8.24 8.16 8.39 8.27 8.24 8.08 8.27

 Mountain ..................... 9.12 9.89 10.19 9.42 9.39 9.95 10.33 9.61 9.62 10.22 10.59 9.85 9.69 9.85 10.10

 Pacific ......................... 11.73 13.21 15.67 13.79 12.30 13.40 16.17 14.04 12.85 13.70 16.60 14.49 13.68 14.08 14.49

 U.S. Average ........... 10.55 10.68 11.11 10.59 10.50 10.56 11.23 10.82 10.75 10.83 11.49 11.02 10.75 10.79 11.04

Industrial Sector

 New England .............. 12.97 11.47 11.43 11.18 13.18 11.72 11.96 12.39 14.34 12.48 12.60 12.95 11.74 12.30 13.08

 Middle Atlantic ............ 8.74 7.36 7.28 7.07 7.87 7.19 7.68 7.38 7.92 7.29 7.74 7.46 7.61 7.53 7.60

 E. N. Central ............... 7.01 6.84 7.01 6.85 6.87 6.78 7.25 7.10 7.08 6.98 7.42 7.21 6.93 7.00 7.17

 W. N. Central .............. 6.52 6.68 7.32 6.32 6.49 6.88 7.63 6.57 6.68 7.04 7.79 6.68 6.72 6.90 7.06

 S. Atlantic ................... 6.80 6.68 6.96 6.49 6.56 6.38 7.12 6.52 6.67 6.57 7.21 6.52 6.73 6.65 6.75

 E. S. Central ............... 6.16 6.23 6.76 5.68 5.78 5.95 6.68 5.82 5.80 6.03 6.75 5.80 6.22 6.06 6.09

 W. S. Central .............. 5.87 6.04 6.34 5.92 5.65 5.50 5.88 5.62 5.64 5.61 5.97 5.63 6.05 5.67 5.72

 Mountain ..................... 6.15 6.73 7.38 6.25 6.18 6.65 7.36 6.42 6.39 6.84 7.56 6.57 6.66 6.68 6.87

 Pacific ......................... 7.70 8.11 9.59 8.63 7.83 8.28 9.59 8.92 8.17 8.46 9.70 9.04 8.54 8.68 8.87

 U.S. Average ........... 6.99 6.92 7.36 6.76 6.76 6.73 7.39 6.89 6.90 6.89 7.51 6.95 7.01 6.95 7.07

All Sectors (a)

 New England .............. 16.05 15.19 15.20 15.29 17.90 16.46 15.54 15.70 17.74 16.60 16.34 16.57 15.45 16.41 16.82

 Middle Atlantic ............ 14.00 13.15 13.63 12.78 13.20 12.82 13.72 12.99 13.32 13.07 14.02 13.28 13.42 13.21 13.44

 E. N. Central ............... 9.53 9.73 9.93 9.74 9.72 9.75 10.17 9.88 9.86 9.98 10.42 10.10 9.73 9.89 10.10

 W. N. Central .............. 8.63 9.31 9.95 8.64 8.64 9.49 10.23 8.82 8.83 9.70 10.46 9.04 9.14 9.31 9.52

 S. Atlantic ................... 10.04 10.05 10.34 9.88 9.97 9.88 10.48 9.92 9.94 9.96 10.58 10.04 10.09 10.08 10.15

 E. S. Central ............... 9.04 9.22 9.47 8.77 8.90 9.05 9.38 8.88 8.99 9.28 9.67 9.11 9.13 9.07 9.27

 W. S. Central .............. 8.41 8.66 9.04 8.47 8.41 8.33 8.68 8.16 8.30 8.44 8.83 8.31 8.66 8.41 8.49

 Mountain ..................... 8.84 9.58 10.17 9.03 9.03 9.63 10.26 9.20 9.29 9.89 10.54 9.45 9.46 9.58 9.84

 Pacific ......................... 11.39 11.93 14.35 12.47 11.89 12.28 14.70 12.52 12.18 12.52 14.86 12.58 12.59 12.91 13.09

 U.S. Average ........... 10.25 10.36 10.92 10.21 10.29 10.31 10.97 10.26 10.35 10.47 11.18 10.46 10.45 10.48 10.64

Table 7c. U.S. Regional Electricity Prices (Cents per Kilowatthour)

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook - October 2015

2014 2015 2016 Year

Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports: Electric Power Monthly , DOE/EIA-0226; and Electric 

Power Annual , DOE/EIA-0348.

Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding. 

Projections: EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.

- = no data available

Prices are not adjusted for inflation.

(a) Volume-weighted average of retail prices to residential, commercial, industrial, and transportation sectors.

Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.

Regions refer to U.S. Census divisions. 

See "Census division" in EIA’s Energy Glossary (http://www.eia.doe.gov/glossary/index.html) for a list of States in each region.
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 2014 2015 2016

United States

 Coal ............................................... 4,864 4,029 4,624 3,869 4,094 3,516 4,326 3,817 4,036 3,653 4,326 3,644 4,344 3,939 3,915

 Natural Gas ................................... 2,715 2,898 3,725 2,948 3,236 3,452 4,343 3,205 3,180 3,327 4,227 3,211 3,074 3,561 3,488

 Petroleum (a) ................................ 148 64 66 58 124 61 74 69 83 71 77 67 84 82 74

 Other Gases .................................. 28 29 35 34 34 33 36 34 33 33 37 35 32 34 35

 Nuclear .......................................... 2,201 2,060 2,289 2,184 2,248 2,133 2,291 2,041 2,144 2,005 2,261 2,129 2,184 2,178 2,135

 Renewable Energy Sources:

 Conventional Hydropower .......... 703 849 652 633 797 688 575 507 642 818 656 631 709 641 686

 Wind ........................................... 553 549 367 525 506 531 435 558 606 649 474 614 498 507 585

 Wood Biomass ........................... 119 114 121 118 117 109 123 116 115 109 125 120 118 116 117

 Waste Biomass .......................... 56 59 60 59 55 57 60 60 58 59 61 60 58 58 60

 Geothermal ................................ 45 45 45 46 47 46 47 48 49 48 48 49 46 47 48

 Solar ........................................... 35 61 61 44 56 88 84 49 53 108 117 79 50 69 89

 Pumped Storage Hydropower ....... -13 -18 -21 -16 -14 -10 -16 -14 -13 -12 -15 -13 -17 -14 -13

 Other Nonrenewable Fuels (b) ...... 32 34 36 35 33 36 37 35 34 37 38 35 34 35 36

 Total Generation ........................... 11,486 10,773 12,060 10,536 11,333 10,739 12,416 10,525 11,020 10,906 12,431 10,661 11,214 11,254 11,256

Northeast Census Region

 Coal ............................................... 353 244 210 207 293 177 188 217 275 174 178 179 253 219 201

 Natural Gas ................................... 413 485 632 493 479 533 702 542 506 571 708 540 506 565 581

 Petroleum (a) ................................ 55 2 3 3 47 2 559465 16 15 6

 Other Gases .................................. 222222 222222 2 2 2

 Nuclear .......................................... 542 471 539 531 545 499 544 481 505 470 527 496 521 517 500

 Hydropower (c) .............................. 94 100 84 91 91 97 92 74 93 107 98 92 92 88 98

 Other Renewables (d) ................... 73 64 60 72 76 65 60 69 73 64 61 73 67 67 68

 Other Nonrenewable Fuels (b) ...... 11 12 13 12 11 12 12 12 11 12 12 12 12 12 12

 Total Generation ........................... 1,542 1,381 1,543 1,411 1,543 1,387 1,605 1,402 1,474 1,405 1,591 1,399 1,469 1,484 1,468

South Census Region

 Coal ............................................... 2,122 1,849 2,100 1,614 1,713 1,539 1,918 1,528 1,653 1,593 1,895 1,485 1,920 1,675 1,657

 Natural Gas ................................... 1,544 1,729 2,088 1,637 1,976 2,060 2,448 1,796 1,834 2,033 2,399 1,786 1,751 2,070 2,013

 Petroleum (a) ................................ 53 28 26 24 42 25 31 26 34 29 31 24 33 31 30

 Other Gases .................................. 11 11 14 14 13 12 13 14 13 12 14 14 13 13 13

 Nuclear .......................................... 966 882 994 977 974 956 1,005 896 941 884 1,006 948 955 958 945

 Hydropower (c) .............................. 150 107 80 107 127 113 91 82 129 124 100 103 111 103 114

 Other Renewables (d) ................... 241 257 204 240 228 262 249 283 298 321 268 322 235 256 302

 Other Nonrenewable Fuels (b) ...... 13 13 14 14 14 15 15 14 14 15 15 14 13 14 14

 Total Generation ........................... 5,100 4,875 5,520 4,627 5,089 4,981 5,770 4,638 4,916 5,012 5,728 4,697 5,031 5,120 5,089

Midwest Census Region

 Coal ............................................... 1,801 1,439 1,682 1,492 1,581 1,305 1,603 1,458 1,533 1,363 1,620 1,426 1,603 1,487 1,486

 Natural Gas ................................... 194 184 203 189 295 254 335 230 274 236 336 252 193 278 275

 Petroleum (a) ................................ 14 13 12 9 12 11 13 11 12 11 12 11 12 12 11

 Other Gases .................................. 11 12 14 12 13 13 15 12 12 13 15 12 12 13 13

 Nuclear .......................................... 533 543 586 525 553 529 569 513 539 502 562 530 547 541 533

 Hydropower (c) .............................. 33 45 44 41 42 46 43 31 42 49 45 39 41 41 44

 Other Renewables (d) ................... 253 214 148 244 250 217 161 246 259 247 178 265 214 218 237

 Other Nonrenewable Fuels (b) ...... 455445 554555 4 5 5

 Total Generation ........................... 2,843 2,454 2,693 2,516 2,749 2,379 2,743 2,507 2,675 2,426 2,774 2,540 2,626 2,594 2,604

West Census Region

 Coal ............................................... 588 497 632 556 506 496 617 613 576 523 633 554 568 558 572

 Natural Gas ................................... 564 500 802 628 486 605 858 637 566 486 784 633 624 648 618

 Petroleum (a) ................................ 25 21 24 23 23 23 25 26 27 27 28 27 23 25 27

 Other Gases .................................. 556666 667666 5 6 6

 Nuclear .......................................... 160 164 170 150 176 149 173 151 159 148 165 156 161 162 157

 Hydropower (c) .............................. 414 579 423 378 522 422 332 306 364 526 398 384 448 395 418

 Other Renewables (d) ................... 240 293 243 236 228 287 279 233 251 342 318 261 253 257 293

 Other Nonrenewable Fuels (b) ...... 555444 544555 5 5 5

 Total Generation ........................... 2,001 2,063 2,304 1,982 1,953 1,992 2,297 1,977 1,954 2,062 2,339 2,026 2,088 2,055 2,096

Table 7d. U.S. Regional Electricity Generation, All Sectors (Thousand megawatthours per day) 

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook - October 2015

2014 2015 2016 Year

Historical data: Latest data available from U.S. Energy Information Administration Electric Power Monthly and Electric Power Annual.

Projections: EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.

(a) Residual fuel oil, distillate fuel oil, petroleum coke, and other petroleum liquids.

(b) Batteries, chemicals, hydrogen, pitch, purchased steam, sulfur, nonrenewable waste, and miscellaneous technologies.

(c) Conventional hydroelectric and pumped storage generation.

(d) Wind, biomass, geothermal, and solar generation.

Notes: Data reflect generation supplied by electricity-only and combined-heat-and-power (CHP) plants operated by electric utilities, independent power producers, and

the commercial and industrial sectors. The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 2014 2015 2016

Fuel Consumption for Electricity Generation, All Sectors

 United States

 Coal (thousand st/d) ................... 2,579 2,161 2,522 2,105 2,190 1,927 2,378 2,098 2,181 1,979 2,366 2,004 2,341 2,148 2,133

 Natural Gas (million cf/d) ........... 20,666 22,042 28,356 22,049 23,991 26,114 33,187 23,702 23,548 25,268 32,297 23,700 23,296 26,765 26,213

 Petroleum (thousand b/d) .......... 262 111 115 103 216 108 130 123 147 125 135 120 147 144 132

 Residual Fuel Oil ..................... 86 24 29 24 77 26 32 30 34 30 33 29 41 41 32

 Distillate Fuel Oil ..................... 87 24 24 25 66 26 27 29 37 28 29 28 40 37 30

 Petroleum Coke (a) ................. 69 60 59 50 59 52 66 59 68 62 68 58 59 59 64

 Other Petroleum Liquids (b) .... 20 3 3 4 13 4 458565 7 7 6

 Northeast Census Region

 Coal (thousand st/d) ................... 161 113 102 96 132 82 90 101 125 79 82 82 118 101 92

 Natural Gas (million cf/d) ........... 3,191 3,701 4,921 3,729 3,614 4,077 5,435 4,065 3,799 4,321 5,449 4,015 3,890 4,302 4,398

 Petroleum (thousand b/d) .......... 92 4 6 5 76 4 10 9 17 8 11 9 26 25 11

 South Census Region

 Coal (thousand st/d) ................... 1,084 963 1,116 855 889 820 1,026 822 869 845 1,012 800 1,004 889 882

 Natural Gas (million cf/d) ........... 11,736 13,138 15,819 12,131 14,453 15,565 18,636 13,198 13,489 15,400 18,227 13,100 13,214 15,468 15,057

 Petroleum (thousand b/d) .......... 101 51 49 45 79 45 56 50 65 54 58 46 61 57 56

 Midwest Census Region

 Coal (thousand st/d) ................... 1,005 811 952 842 884 745 912 823 860 764 915 805 902 841 836

 Natural Gas (million cf/d) ........... 1,574 1,436 1,638 1,513 2,275 1,977 2,695 1,757 2,092 1,857 2,727 1,920 1,540 2,176 2,150

 Petroleum (thousand b/d) .......... 28 23 22 17 23 22 23 22 22 20 21 21 23 22 21

 West Census Region

 Coal (thousand st/d) ................... 329 274 351 313 286 280 350 352 327 292 357 316 317 317 323

 Natural Gas (million cf/d) ........... 4,165 3,767 5,979 4,675 3,649 4,494 6,421 4,682 4,168 3,691 5,895 4,664 4,651 4,819 4,608

 Petroleum (thousand b/d) .......... 41 33 38 36 38 36 40 42 44 43 45 44 37 39 44

End-of-period U.S. Fuel Inventories Held by Electric Power Sector

 Coal (million short tons) ................ 118.3 132.9 123.8 151.4 155.6 168.0 151.2 154.7 155.6 161.0 146.3 150.9 151.4 154.7 150.9

 Residual Fuel Oil (mmb) ............... 10.5 10.6 10.4 12.7 10.2 10.5 10.9 11.6 11.7 11.5 11.2 11.4 12.7 11.6 11.4

 Distillate Fuel Oil (mmb) ............... 15.5 15.5 15.5 16.9 15.8 15.9 15.9 16.2 16.3 16.1 16.0 16.3 16.9 16.2 16.3

 Petroleum Coke (mmb) ................. 1.7 2.0 1.9 4.2 4.1 5.2 5.3 5.2 5.1 5.0 4.9 4.9 4.2 5.2 4.9

Table 7e. U.S. Regional Fuel Consumption for Electricity Generation, All Sectors

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook - October 2015

2014 2015 2016 Year

Historical data: Latest data available from U.S. Energy Information Administration Electric Power Monthly and Electric Power Annual.

Projections: EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.

(a) Petroleum coke consumption converted from short tons to barrels by multiplying by five.

(b) Other petroleum liquids include jet fuel, kerosene, and waste oil.

Notes: Data reflect generation supplied by electricity-only and combined-heat-and-power (CHP) plants operated by electric utilities, independent power producers, and

the commercial and industrial sectors. Data include fuel consumed only for generation of electricity. Values do not include consumption by CHP plants for useful thermal output.

The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.

Physical Units: st/d = short tons per day; b/d = barrels per day; cf/d = cubic feet per day; mmb = million barrels.
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 2014 2015 2016

Electric Power Sector 

 Hydroelectric Power (a) ........................ 0.596 0.731 0.566 0.549 0.677 0.593 0.499 0.437 0.549 0.704 0.569 0.546 2.443 2.205 2.367

 Wood Biomass (b) ................................. 0.063 0.056 0.064 0.063 0.063 0.056 0.067 0.060 0.063 0.057 0.070 0.063 0.247 0.245 0.254

 Waste Biomass (c) ................................ 0.063 0.065 0.066 0.066 0.063 0.062 0.068 0.068 0.066 0.067 0.070 0.068 0.260 0.261 0.271

 Wind ...................................................... 0.473 0.475 0.321 0.459 0.433 0.459 0.380 0.488 0.524 0.562 0.414 0.537 1.729 1.760 2.038

 Geothermal .......................................... 0.039 0.039 0.039 0.041 0.040 0.040 0.041 0.042 0.042 0.041 0.042 0.043 0.158 0.163 0.169

 Solar ...................................................... 0.029 0.051 0.052 0.037 0.047 0.074 0.072 0.042 0.045 0.092 0.101 0.068 0.170 0.236 0.306

 Subtotal .............................................. 1.263 1.418 1.109 1.215 1.323 1.284 1.127 1.137 1.288 1.523 1.267 1.325 5.006 4.871 5.403

Industrial Sector 

 Hydroelectric Power (a) ........................ 0.008 0.006 0.006 0.007 0.007 0.004 0.006 0.006 0.005 0.005 0.006 0.006 0.026 0.023 0.021

 Wood Biomass (b) ................................. 0.318 0.327 0.335 0.336 0.321 0.316 0.319 0.318 0.307 0.304 0.315 0.317 1.317 1.274 1.243

 Waste Biomass (c) ................................ 0.044 0.046 0.046 0.046 0.045 0.047 0.048 0.047 0.046 0.046 0.048 0.048 0.183 0.187 0.188

 Geothermal .......................................... 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.004 0.004 0.004

 Biofuel Losses and Co-products (f) ...... 0.181 0.189 0.191 0.196 0.189 0.192 0.192 0.192 0.195 0.191 0.195 0.191 0.757 0.765 0.772

 Subtotal .............................................. 0.557 0.574 0.583 0.591 0.567 0.565 0.571 0.568 0.559 0.552 0.569 0.568 2.304 2.271 2.248

Commercial Sector 

 Wood Biomass (b) ................................. 0.018 0.018 0.018 0.018 0.018 0.020 0.019 0.019 0.019 0.019 0.019 0.019 0.071 0.076 0.077

 Waste Biomass (c) ................................ 0.012 0.011 0.011 0.012 0.012 0.010 0.012 0.012 0.011 0.010 0.012 0.011 0.046 0.046 0.044

 Geothermal .......................................... 0.005 0.005 0.005 0.005 0.005 0.005 0.005 0.005 0.005 0.005 0.005 0.005 0.020 0.020 0.020

 Subtotal .............................................. 0.036 0.036 0.036 0.036 0.037 0.037 0.037 0.036 0.035 0.035 0.037 0.037 0.144 0.148 0.144

Residential Sector 

 Wood Biomass (b) ................................. 0.143 0.145 0.146 0.146 0.110 0.111 0.113 0.113 0.103 0.104 0.105 0.105 0.580 0.447 0.418

 Geothermal .......................................... 0.010 0.010 0.010 0.010 0.010 0.010 0.010 0.010 0.011 0.011 0.011 0.011 0.040 0.040 0.044

 Solar (d) ................................................. 0.062 0.063 0.063 0.063 0.069 0.070 0.071 0.071 0.077 0.077 0.078 0.078 0.252 0.281 0.311

 Subtotal .............................................. 0.215 0.217 0.220 0.220 0.189 0.191 0.194 0.194 0.191 0.193 0.195 0.195 0.871 0.768 0.773

Transportation Sector 

 Ethanol (e) ............................................. 0.255 0.274 0.278 0.280 0.266 0.284 0.283 0.280 0.270 0.282 0.290 0.281 1.087 1.113 1.123

 Biodiesel (e) ........................................... 0.038 0.048 0.058 0.054 0.034 0.058 0.063 0.070 0.059 0.063 0.069 0.071 0.198 0.225 0.261

 Subtotal .............................................. 0.293 0.321 0.336 0.334 0.300 0.341 0.348 0.350 0.329 0.345 0.359 0.352 1.285 1.339 1.384

All Sectors Total

 Hydroelectric Power (a) ........................ 0.604 0.737 0.572 0.555 0.685 0.597 0.505 0.443 0.554 0.709 0.575 0.551 2.469 2.229 2.389

 Wood Biomass (b) ................................. 0.542 0.546 0.563 0.563 0.512 0.503 0.517 0.510 0.492 0.484 0.510 0.505 2.214 2.042 1.992

 Waste Biomass (c) ................................ 0.119 0.121 0.124 0.124 0.120 0.119 0.129 0.127 0.123 0.123 0.130 0.127 0.488 0.494 0.503

 Wind ...................................................... 0.473 0.475 0.321 0.459 0.433 0.459 0.380 0.488 0.524 0.562 0.414 0.537 1.729 1.760 2.038

 Geothermal .......................................... 0.055 0.055 0.055 0.057 0.056 0.056 0.058 0.058 0.059 0.058 0.059 0.060 0.222 0.228 0.237

 Solar ...................................................... 0.092 0.116 0.117 0.102 0.117 0.146 0.142 0.114 0.123 0.171 0.180 0.148 0.427 0.520 0.622

 Ethanol (e) ............................................. 0.260 0.279 0.283 0.285 0.271 0.289 0.295 0.285 0.275 0.287 0.295 0.286 1.107 1.139 1.144

 Biodiesel (e) ........................................... 0.038 0.048 0.058 0.054 0.034 0.058 0.063 0.070 0.059 0.063 0.069 0.071 0.198 0.225 0.261

 Biofuel Losses and Co-products (f) ...... 0.181 0.189 0.191 0.196 0.189 0.192 0.192 0.192 0.195 0.191 0.195 0.191 0.757 0.765 0.772

Total Consumption ................................. 2.364 2.566 2.284 2.396 2.417 2.419 2.262 2.285 2.402 2.647 2.426 2.476 9.610 9.383 9.951

(e) Fuel ethanol and biodiesel consumption in the transportation sector includes production, stock change, and imports less exports. Some biodiesel may be consumed in the residential sector in 

heating oil.

Table 8. U.S. Renewable Energy Consumption (Quadrillion Btu)

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook - October 2015

2014 2015 2016 Year

- = no data available

(a) Conventional hydroelectric power only. Hydroelectricity generated by pumped storage is not included in renewable energy.

(b) Wood and wood-derived fuels.

(c) Municipal solid waste from biogenic sources, landfill gas, sludge waste, agricultural byproducts, and other biomass.

(d) Includes small-scale solar thermal and photovoltaic energy used in the commercial, industrial, and electric power sectors.

(f) Losses and co-products from the production of fuel ethanol and biodiesel

Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.

Historical data: Latest data available from EIA databases supporting the following reports: Electric Power Monthly, DOE/EIA-0226 and Renewable Energy Annual, DOE/EIA-0603; Petroleum 

Supply Monthly, DOE/EIA-0109. 

Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding. 

Projections: EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 2014 2015 2016

Macroeconomic

Real Gross Domestic Product

 (billion chained 2009 dollars - SAAR) ............. 15,725 15,902 16,069 16,151 16,177 16,324 16,415 16,503 16,595 16,705 16,827 16,956 15,962 16,355 16,771

Real Personal Consumption Expend.

 (billion chained 2009 dollars - SAAR) ............. 10,725 10,826 10,919 11,033 11,081 11,166 11,244 11,333 11,406 11,497 11,586 11,668 10,876 11,206 11,539

Real Fixed Investment

 (billion chained 2009 dollars - SAAR) ............. 2,578 2,613 2,664 2,680 2,701 2,729 2,783 2,828 2,877 2,920 2,959 3,004 2,634 2,760 2,940

Business Inventory Change

 (billion chained 2009 dollars - SAAR) ............. 43 89 88 89 127 136 106 70 51 39 43 52 77 110 46

Real Government Expenditures

 (billion chained 2009 dollars - SAAR) ............. 2,828 2,837 2,849 2,839 2,839 2,857 2,865 2,867 2,868 2,871 2,876 2,882 2,838 2,857 2,874

Real Exports of Goods & Services

 (billion chained 2009 dollars - SAAR) ............. 2,039 2,087 2,096 2,124 2,091 2,118 2,130 2,150 2,170 2,189 2,210 2,234 2,086 2,123 2,201

Real Imports of Goods & Services

 (billion chained 2009 dollars - SAAR) ............. 2,473 2,530 2,525 2,588 2,633 2,651 2,686 2,719 2,752 2,787 2,824 2,860 2,529 2,672 2,806

Real Disposable Personal Income

 (billion chained 2009 dollars - SAAR) ............. 11,699 11,785 11,863 11,999 12,115 12,154 12,260 12,368 12,468 12,540 12,643 12,735 11,836 12,224 12,596

Non-Farm Employment

 (millions) .......................................................... 137.8 138.6 139.4 140.2 141.0 141.6 142.3 142.8 143.4 143.8 144.3 144.9 139.0 141.9 144.1

Civilian Unemployment Rate

 (percent) ........................................................... 6.6 6.2 6.1 5.7 5.6 5.4 5.2 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 6.2 5.4 5.3

Housing Starts

 (millions - SAAR) .............................................. 0.93 0.98 1.03 1.06 0.98 1.16 1.16 1.21 1.24 1.25 1.30 1.37 1.00 1.13 1.29

Industrial Production Indices (Index, 2012=100)

Total Industrial Production .................................. 103.8 105.3 106.3 107.5 107.4 106.7 107.1 106.7 106.9 107.6 108.6 109.7 105.7 107.0 108.2

 Manufacturing .................................................. 101.9 103.5 104.6 105.6 105.5 105.8 106.3 106.1 106.3 107.1 108.2 109.4 103.9 105.9 107.7

 Food ............................................................. 102.6 103.1 102.2 103.9 104.7 104.7 105.3 105.4 105.7 106.3 107.0 107.6 103.0 105.0 106.7

 Paper ............................................................ 97.3 98.1 97.5 97.9 97.2 97.1 96.4 96.9 96.7 96.7 96.9 97.3 97.7 96.9 96.9

 Petroleum and Coal Products ....................... 107.1 107.3 107.2 106.7 107.9 108.9 108.4 109.2 109.6 110.1 110.7 111.0 107.1 108.6 110.4

 Chemicals ..................................................... 97.9 99.0 101.0 102.0 102.8 102.8 103.8 104.3 104.6 105.3 106.3 107.5 100.0 103.4 105.9

 Nonmetallic Mineral Products ...................... 105.1 107.8 110.6 110.6 111.3 111.1 112.4 112.5 113.8 115.4 117.2 119.0 108.5 111.8 116.4

 Primary Metals .............................................. 103.4 105.6 107.1 105.7 100.7 100.5 102.2 100.6 99.6 100.0 101.0 102.0 105.4 101.0 100.7

 Coal-weighted Manufacturing (a) .................... 102.6 103.9 104.7 104.6 103.6 103.9 104.8 104.6 104.6 105.2 106.2 107.2 103.9 104.2 105.8

 Distillate-weighted Manufacturing (a) .............. 103.9 105.5 106.6 107.1 106.6 106.4 107.1 107.2 107.7 108.6 109.8 110.9 105.8 106.8 109.2

 Electricity-weighted Manufacturing (a) ............ 102.5 104.0 104.9 105.4 104.7 105.0 105.9 105.9 105.9 106.6 107.8 108.9 104.2 105.4 107.3

 Natural Gas-weighted Manufacturing (a) ........ 103.2 103.7 104.5 104.9 104.5 105.1 105.9 106.2 106.2 106.9 108.2 109.5 104.1 105.4 107.7

Price Indexes

Consumer Price Index (all urban consumers)

 (index, 1982-1984=1.00) ................................... 2.35 2.37 2.38 2.37 2.35 2.37 2.38 2.38 2.40 2.41 2.42 2.44 2.37 2.37 2.42

Producer Price Index: All Commodities

 (index, 1982=1.00) ............................................ 2.06 2.07 2.06 2.02 1.92 1.92 1.92 1.91 1.92 1.93 1.94 1.95 2.05 1.92 1.94

Producer Price Index: Petroleum

 (index, 1982=1.00) ............................................ 2.88 2.99 2.90 2.35 1.71 1.95 1.81 1.62 1.70 1.91 1.94 1.81 2.78 1.77 1.84

GDP Implicit Price Deflator

 (index, 2009=100) ............................................. 108.0 108.6 109.0 109.1 109.1 109.7 110.4 110.8 111.4 111.8 112.2 112.8 108.7 110.0 112.1

Miscellaneous

Vehicle Miles Traveled (b)

 (million miles/day) ............................................. 7,708 8,691 8,614 8,300 7,991 8,982 8,892 8,463 8,141 8,990 8,907 8,560 8,331 8,584 8,650

Air Travel Capacity

 (Available ton-miles/day, thousands) ............... 503 548 561 535 517 575 578 552 513 554 579 556 537 556 550

Aircraft Utilization

 (Revenue ton-miles/day, thousands) ................ 310 347 353 332 322 357 371 350 318 346 376 354 336 350 349

Airline Ticket Price Index

 (index, 1982-1984=100) .................................... 297.3 334.3 301.0 298.2 286.4 313.0 284.9 291.9 295.6 317.7 304.9 311.9 307.7 294.1 307.5

Raw Steel Production

 (million short tons per day) ............................... 0.262 0.263 0.271 0.262 0.247 0.242 0.248 0.228 0.240 0.235 0.240 0.221 0.264 0.241 0.234

Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Emissions (million metric tons)

Petroleum ............................................................ 546 557 572 578 562 568 579 574 564 570 581 578 2,252 2,282 2,293

Natural Gas ......................................................... 461 299 305 377 471 314 327 387 460 320 334 395 1,441 1,499 1,509

Coal ..................................................................... 463 397 461 391 397 354 446 391 401 365 436 375 1,713 1,587 1,577

Total Energy (c) .................................................. 1,473 1,255 1,341 1,349 1,432 1,238 1,355 1,356 1,427 1,259 1,354 1,351 5,417 5,380 5,391

SAAR = Seasonally-adjusted annual rate

Table 9a. U.S. Macroeconomic Indicators and CO2 Emissions

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook - October 2015

2014 2015 2016 Year

and Federal Aviation Administration. Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding. 

Projections: EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model. Macroeconomic projections are based on Global Insight Model of the U.S. Economy. 

- = no data available

(a) Fuel share weights of individual sector indices based on EIA Manufacturing Energy Consumption Survey.

(b) Total highway travel includes gasoline and diesel fuel vehicles.

(c) Includes electric power sector use of geothermal energy and non-biomass waste.

Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.

Historical data: Latest data available from U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis; Federal Reserve System, Statistical release G17; Federal Highway Administration;
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 2014 2015 2016

Real Gross State Product (Billion $2009)

 New England ................ 853 857 860 864 864 873 877 882 886 891 897 903 858 874 894

 Middle Atlantic .............. 2,387 2,401 2,424 2,425 2,422 2,447 2,461 2,474 2,487 2,501 2,515 2,530 2,409 2,451 2,508

 E. N. Central ................. 2,174 2,198 2,215 2,223 2,225 2,245 2,256 2,266 2,276 2,288 2,303 2,317 2,202 2,248 2,296

 W. N. Central ................ 1,007 1,025 1,036 1,041 1,047 1,055 1,060 1,066 1,072 1,079 1,086 1,094 1,027 1,057 1,083

 S. Atlantic ...................... 2,781 2,813 2,830 2,846 2,852 2,885 2,903 2,921 2,940 2,960 2,983 3,008 2,817 2,890 2,973

 E. S. Central ................. 720 729 732 736 738 744 748 752 755 760 765 770 729 745 763

 W. S. Central ................ 1,918 1,952 1,992 2,014 2,018 2,026 2,035 2,047 2,058 2,073 2,091 2,110 1,969 2,032 2,083

 Mountain ....................... 1,000 1,007 1,021 1,028 1,033 1,042 1,048 1,055 1,062 1,070 1,079 1,090 1,014 1,044 1,075

 Pacific ........................... 2,798 2,831 2,869 2,884 2,888 2,917 2,934 2,949 2,967 2,990 3,013 3,038 2,845 2,922 3,002

Industrial Output, Manufacturing (Index, Year 2007=100)

 New England ................ 116.0 117.2 118.0 118.7 118.3 119.1 120.1 119.9 120.0 120.9 122.1 123.3 117.5 119.3 121.6

 Middle Atlantic .............. 116.2 117.5 118.3 119.1 118.8 119.5 120.5 120.2 120.3 121.0 122.2 123.4 117.8 119.7 121.7

 E. N. Central ................. 119.9 121.9 123.3 124.9 125.3 126.2 126.7 126.5 126.6 127.5 128.8 130.2 122.5 126.2 128.3

 W. N. Central ................ 118.7 120.7 121.9 123.3 122.8 122.9 123.5 123.3 123.5 124.5 125.9 127.2 121.1 123.1 125.3

 S. Atlantic ...................... 118.6 120.8 122.3 123.7 123.7 124.2 125.0 124.8 125.0 125.9 127.2 128.4 121.3 124.4 126.7

 E. S. Central ................. 120.5 122.4 124.2 125.5 125.6 125.8 126.3 126.2 126.3 127.2 128.5 129.7 123.2 126.0 127.9

 W. S. Central ................ 118.0 120.2 121.6 123.0 121.8 120.5 120.0 119.6 119.7 120.4 121.7 123.1 120.7 120.5 121.2

 Mountain ....................... 120.0 121.7 123.0 124.1 124.7 125.5 126.5 126.6 127.1 128.4 130.2 131.7 122.2 125.8 129.4

 Pacific ........................... 118.7 120.5 121.6 122.7 122.5 123.3 123.8 123.4 123.6 124.6 126.0 127.4 120.9 123.2 125.4

Real Personal Income (Billion $2009)

 New England ................ 712 714 719 732 741 743 749 755 761 764 770 775 719 747 767

 Middle Atlantic .............. 1,837 1,841 1,856 1,883 1,911 1,915 1,930 1,944 1,959 1,965 1,977 1,989 1,854 1,925 1,972

 E. N. Central ................. 1,951 1,962 1,971 1,997 2,023 2,031 2,046 2,061 2,075 2,084 2,097 2,109 1,970 2,040 2,091

 W. N. Central ................ 941 951 956 967 973 977 987 999 1,008 1,013 1,019 1,026 954 984 1,016

 S. Atlantic ...................... 2,508 2,530 2,548 2,581 2,619 2,634 2,659 2,685 2,709 2,727 2,749 2,772 2,542 2,649 2,739

 E. S. Central ................. 730 735 739 748 759 761 767 773 779 783 788 793 738 765 786

 W. S. Central ................ 1,617 1,632 1,649 1,670 1,689 1,690 1,703 1,717 1,731 1,743 1,757 1,773 1,642 1,699 1,751

 Mountain ....................... 881 887 894 909 921 924 934 942 951 958 966 974 893 930 962

 Pacific ........................... 2,103 2,121 2,148 2,175 2,207 2,220 2,240 2,261 2,281 2,295 2,313 2,331 2,137 2,232 2,305

Households (Thousands)

 New England ................ 5,764 5,765 5,762 5,767 5,771 5,770 5,770 5,776 5,779 5,783 5,787 5,792 5,767 5,776 5,792

 Middle Atlantic .............. 15,836 15,838 15,829 15,843 15,850 15,854 15,849 15,860 15,863 15,873 15,880 15,884 15,843 15,860 15,884

 E. N. Central ................. 18,576 18,587 18,582 18,596 18,598 18,593 18,586 18,600 18,608 18,620 18,633 18,647 18,596 18,600 18,647

 W. N. Central ................ 8,410 8,423 8,429 8,447 8,460 8,469 8,475 8,490 8,501 8,515 8,530 8,547 8,447 8,490 8,547

 S. Atlantic ...................... 24,217 24,276 24,320 24,398 24,467 24,523 24,576 24,655 24,724 24,799 24,878 24,958 24,398 24,655 24,958

 E. S. Central ................. 7,450 7,453 7,452 7,461 7,466 7,468 7,468 7,478 7,486 7,497 7,508 7,520 7,461 7,478 7,520

 W. S. Central ................ 14,103 14,148 14,182 14,232 14,275 14,310 14,341 14,387 14,428 14,472 14,518 14,563 14,232 14,387 14,563

 Mountain ....................... 8,604 8,625 8,642 8,672 8,697 8,720 8,741 8,770 8,798 8,829 8,862 8,896 8,672 8,770 8,896

 Pacific ........................... 18,186 18,232 18,267 18,324 18,372 18,409 18,440 18,488 18,537 18,588 18,635 18,685 18,324 18,488 18,685

Total Non-farm Employment (Millions)

 New England ................ 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.1 7.2 7.3

 Middle Atlantic .............. 18.7 18.8 18.8 18.9 18.9 19.0 19.1 19.2 19.2 19.3 19.3 19.3 18.8 19.1 19.3

 E. N. Central ................. 21.0 21.1 21.2 21.3 21.4 21.5 21.5 21.6 21.6 21.7 21.8 21.8 21.1 21.5 21.7

 W. N. Central ................ 10.3 10.3 10.4 10.4 10.4 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.6 10.6 10.6 10.7 10.3 10.5 10.6

 S. Atlantic ...................... 26.1 26.2 26.4 26.6 26.7 26.9 27.1 27.2 27.3 27.5 27.6 27.7 26.3 27.0 27.5

 E. S. Central ................. 7.6 7.7 7.7 7.8 7.8 7.8 7.8 7.9 7.9 7.9 7.9 8.0 7.7 7.8 7.9

 W. S. Central ................ 16.1 16.2 16.4 16.5 16.6 16.6 16.7 16.7 16.8 16.8 16.9 17.0 16.3 16.7 16.9

 Mountain ....................... 9.7 9.7 9.8 9.9 9.9 10.0 10.0 10.1 10.2 10.2 10.3 10.3 9.8 10.0 10.2

 Pacific ........................... 21.1 21.2 21.4 21.6 21.8 21.9 22.0 22.1 22.2 22.3 22.4 22.5 21.3 21.9 22.3

Table 9b. U.S. Regional Macroeconomic Data

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook - October 2015

2014 2015 2016 Year

Projections: Macroeconomic projections are based on the Global Insight Model of the U.S. Economy.

- = no data available

Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.

Regions refer to U.S. Census divisions. 

See "Census division" in EIA’s Energy Glossary (http://www.eia.doe.gov/glossary/index.html) for a list of States in each region.

Historical data: Latest data available from U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis; Federal Reserve System, Statistical release G17.

Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding. 
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 2014 2015 2016

Heating Degree Days

 New England ................. 3,561 883 147 2,080 3,852 819 94 2,089 3,146 838 134 2,184 6,670 6,853 6,302

 Middle Atlantic ............... 3,440 702 100 1,967 3,584 612 57 1,902 2,883 667 90 2,008 6,208 6,156 5,647

 E. N. Central .................. 3,935 728 169 2,366 3,695 661 112 2,185 3,062 725 129 2,259 7,198 6,653 6,174

 W. N. Central ................. 3,862 755 177 2,512 3,377 653 114 2,403 3,159 682 154 2,437 7,308 6,547 6,431

 South Atlantic ................ 1,714 196 14 1,039 1,675 155 15 986 1,490 215 17 1,006 2,962 2,831 2,727

 E. S. Central .................. 2,266 228 17 1,410 2,144 184 23 1,335 1,880 268 23 1,337 3,921 3,686 3,508

 W. S. Central ................. 1,481 92 4 847 1,399 69 2 866 1,302 106 5 804 2,424 2,337 2,217

 Mountain ........................ 2,118 715 151 1,766 1,904 708 90 1,859 2,200 665 138 1,785 4,750 4,561 4,788

 Pacific ............................ 1,247 465 56 985 1,075 523 66 1,046 1,286 482 80 1,099 2,754 2,710 2,948

 U.S. Average ............. 2,449 479 80 1,541 2,342 443 57 1,502 2,101 473 75 1,530 4,550 4,344 4,180

Heating Degree Days, Prior 10-year Average

 New England ................. 3,152 836 134 2,167 3,166 838 134 2,147 3,212 824 136 2,134 6,289 6,285 6,306

 Middle Atlantic ............... 2,905 660 88 1,983 2,936 666 90 1,976 2,983 651 91 1,962 5,636 5,667 5,688

 E. N. Central .................. 3,117 690 120 2,243 3,192 694 123 2,262 3,247 689 129 2,250 6,170 6,272 6,315

 W. N. Central ................. 3,209 686 149 2,404 3,273 691 150 2,433 3,298 693 152 2,436 6,449 6,546 6,580

 South Atlantic ................ 1,465 194 14 1,006 1,481 196 14 1,013 1,502 185 15 1,007 2,679 2,704 2,709

 E. S. Central .................. 1,810 236 19 1,336 1,853 236 19 1,358 1,898 225 20 1,353 3,402 3,465 3,496

 W. S. Central ................. 1,157 85 5 827 1,189 86 5 834 1,221 83 5 839 2,075 2,113 2,148

 Mountain ........................ 2,267 728 156 1,887 2,258 731 150 1,873 2,231 725 144 1,879 5,038 5,012 4,979

 Pacific ............................ 1,554 625 96 1,236 1,533 621 92 1,205 1,493 609 87 1,196 3,511 3,451 3,385

 U.S. Average ............. 2,161 492 77 1,569 2,182 493 77 1,567 2,199 483 77 1,560 4,298 4,319 4,319

Cooling Degree Days

 New England ................. 0 76 342 0 0 72 504 1 0 92 417 0 418 577 509

 Middle Atlantic ............... 0 157 433 6 0 184 610 7 0 169 559 5 595 801 733

 E. N. Central .................. 0 230 376 2 0 219 497 9 0 215 542 8 608 725 765

 W. N. Central ................. 0 262 537 12 3 266 665 11 3 273 683 11 811 944 969

 South Atlantic ................ 107 642 1,058 194 137 763 1,160 233 109 615 1,132 224 2,001 2,292 2,080

 E. S. Central .................. 6 507 925 66 23 581 1,029 65 25 492 1,033 65 1,505 1,698 1,615

 W. S. Central ................. 34 780 1,441 219 51 857 1,577 183 63 800 1,485 201 2,474 2,668 2,549

 Mountain ........................ 31 437 868 94 45 432 920 78 19 443 975 88 1,429 1,475 1,526

 Pacific ............................ 41 228 692 113 54 231 695 76 31 201 592 75 1,073 1,055 899

 U.S. Average ............. 34 394 775 96 47 434 879 93 38 388 848 94 1,298 1,453 1,368

Cooling Degree Days, Prior 10-year Average

 New England ................. 0 83 417 1 0 85 420 1 0 81 421 1 500 505 503

 Middle Atlantic ............... 0 167 558 5 0 168 557 5 0 168 548 6 730 731 722

 E. N. Central .................. 3 230 546 6 3 234 545 6 3 229 528 6 785 787 765

 W. N. Central ................. 7 277 678 9 7 282 683 9 7 279 674 9 972 981 969

 South Atlantic ................ 110 636 1,154 213 110 635 1,154 210 113 659 1,144 211 2,112 2,108 2,128

 E. S. Central .................. 35 528 1,045 57 33 526 1,053 52 32 542 1,039 53 1,666 1,664 1,667

 W. S. Central ................. 102 882 1,506 190 94 883 1,519 184 90 890 1,518 183 2,680 2,679 2,681

 Mountain ........................ 18 420 922 70 17 423 929 75 21 429 930 75 1,431 1,445 1,456

 Pacific ............................ 26 166 589 58 26 171 601 65 29 181 614 67 839 863 891

 U.S. Average ............. 41 393 843 83 40 396 849 83 42 404 845 84 1,361 1,369 1,375

Table 9c. U.S. Regional Weather Data

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook - October 2015

2014 2015 2016 Year

Historical data: Latest data available from U.S. Department of Commerce, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA).

Projections: Based on forecasts by the NOAA Climate Prediction Center (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pacdir/DDdir/NHOME3.shtml).

- = no data available

Notes: Regional degree days for each period are calculated by EIA as contemporaneous period population-weighted averages of

state degree day data published by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

See Change in Regional and U.S. Degree-Day Calculations (http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo/special/pdf/2012_sp_04.pdf) for more information.

The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.

Regions refer to U.S. Census divisions. See "Census division" in EIA’s Energy Glossary (http://www.eia.gov/tools/glossary/) for a list of states in each region.