Prepared in cooperation with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency 

Air- and Stream-Water-Temperature Trends in the 

Chesapeake Bay Region, 1960–2014 

By John D. Jastram and Karen C. Rice 

Open-File Report 2015–1207

U.S. Department of the Interior 

U.S. Geological Survey 
U.S. Department of the Interior 

SALLY JEWELL, Secretary 

U.S. Geological Survey 

Suzette M. Kimball, Acting Director 

U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, Virginia: 2015 

For more information on the USGS—the Federal source for science about the Earth, 

its natural and living resources, natural hazards, and the environment—visit 

http://www.usgs.gov/ or call 1–888–ASK–USGS (1–888–275–8747). 

For an overview of USGS information products, including maps, imagery, and publications, 

visit http://www.usgs.gov/pubprod/.

Any use of trade, firm, or product names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply 

endorsement by the U.S. Government. 

Although this information product, for the most part, is in the public domain, it also may 

contain copyrighted materials as noted in the text. Permission to reproduce copyrighted items 

must be secured from the copyright owner. 

Suggested citation: 

Jastram, J.D., and Rice, K.C., 2015, Air- and stream-water-temperature trends in the Chesapeake Bay region, 

1960–2014: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2015‒1207, 28 p., 

http://dx.doi.org/10.3133/ofr20151207. 

ISSN 2331-1258 (online) 
iii

Preface 

This report documents an update to the air-temperature and stream-water-temperature trend analyses presented in 

Rice and Jastram (2015). This update extends the analysis period (1960–2010) to include data collected through 

the end of the 2014 water year (September 30, 2014). Methods of analysis are presented in Rice and Jastram 

(2015). This updated analysis was performed for inclusion of air-temperature and stream-water-temperature trends 

as indicators of climate change in the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s “Climate Change Indicators in the 

United States, 2016” report.

Acknowledgments 

The authors thank the cooperator, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, for support of this scientific work. 

In particular, we thank Michael Kolian for initiating this effort and for his contributions to the report.

Thorough reviews were provided by James Webber and John Clune, U.S. Geological Survey, whose comments 

improved the clarity of the report.
iv

Contents

Preface ............................................................................................................................................................................................iii

Acknowledgments ...........................................................................................................................................................................iii

Introduction...................................................................................................................................................................................... 1

About the Indicator .......................................................................................................................................................................... 2

Key Points ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 2

Indicator Notes ................................................................................................................................................................................ 3

Data Sources ................................................................................................................................................................................... 3

References Cited ............................................................................................................................................................................. 6

Appendix 1. Air-temperature station information and results of trend analyses, Chesapeake Bay region,1960–2014 .................. 7

Appendix 2. Water-temperature station information and results of trend analyses, Chesapeake Bay region,1960–2014. .......... 11

Appendix 3. Timeseries plots of air‐temperature anomalies with trend lines, Chesapeake Bay region, 1960–2014. ................... 19

Appendix 4. Timeseries plots of stream-water‐temperature anomalies with trend lines, Chesapeake Bay region, 1960–2014. ..19

Figures 

Figure 1. Map showing locations of air-temperature measurement stations and results of trend analyses at those 

stations, Chesapeake Bay region, 1960–2014............................................................................................................................ 4

Figure 2. Map showing locations of stream-water-temperature measurement stations and results of trend analyses at 

those stations, Chesapeake Bay region, 1960–2014. ................................................................................................................. 5

Figure 3. Plots of non-exceedance probabilities and model significance for air- and stream-watertemperature trends, Chesapeake Bay region, 1960–2014.......................................................................................................... 6

Table 

Table 1. Summary of trend-analysis results for air and stream-water temperature, Chesapeake Bay 

region, 1960–2014 ...................................................................................................................................................................... 3
v

Conversion Factors

Temperature in degrees Celsius (°C) may be converted to degrees Fahrenheit (°F) as °F = (1.8 × °C) + 32.

Temperature in degrees Fahrenheit (°F) may be converted to degrees Celsius (°C) as °C = (°F – 32) / 1.8.

Datum

Vertical coordinate information is referenced to the North American Vertical Datum of 1988 (NAVD 88). 

Horizontal coordinate information is referenced to the North American Datum of 1983 (NAD 83). 

Abbreviations

AT Air temperature 

EPA U.S. Environmental Protection Agency 

NOAA National Atmospheric and Oceanic Administration 

USGS U.S. Geological Survey 

WT Water temperature 

1

Air- and Stream-Water-Temperature Trends in the 

Chesapeake Bay Region, 1960–2014

By John D. Jastram and Karen C. Rice 

Introduction

Water temperature is a basic, but important, measure of the condition of all aquatic 

environments, including the flowing waters in the streams that drain our landscape and the receiving 

waters of those streams. Climatic conditions have a strong influence on water temperature, which is 

therefore naturally variable both in time and across the landscape. Changes to natural watertemperature regimes, however, can result in a myriad of effects on aquatic organisms, water quality, 

circulation patterns, recreation, industry, and utility operations. For example, most species of fish, 

insects, and other organisms, as well as aquatic vegetation, are highly dependent on water temperature. 

Warming waters can result in shifts in floral and faunal species distributions (Short and Neckles, 1999; 

Beitinger and others 2000; Coles and Jones, 2000), including invasive species and pathogens previously 

unable to inhabit the once cooler streams. Many chemical processes are temperature dependent, with 

reactions occurring faster in warmer conditions, leading to degraded water quality as contaminants are 

released into waterways at greater rates (Duan and Kaushal, 2013). Circulation patterns in receiving 

waters, such as bays and estuaries, can change as a result of warmer inflows from streams, thereby 

affecting organisms in those receiving waters. Changes in abundance of some aquatic species and (or) 

degradation of water quality can reduce the recreational value of water bodies as waters are perceived as 

less desirable for water-related activities or as sportfish become less available for anglers. Finally, 

increasing water temperatures can affect industry and utilities as the thermal capacity is reduced, 

making the water less effective for cooling purposes. 

Chesapeake Bay is the largest estuary in the United States. Eutrophication, the enrichment of a 

water body with excess nutrients, has plagued the bay for decades and has led to extensive restoration 

efforts throughout the bay watershed. The warming of stream water can exacerbate eutrophication 

through increased release of nutrients from in-stream sediments (Duan and Kaushal, 2013), so 

understanding changes in stream-water temperature throughout the bay watershed is critical to resource 

managers seeking to restore the bay ecosystem. 

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) uses indicators that “represent the state or 

trend of certain environmental or societal conditions ... to track and better understand the effects of 

changes in the Earth’s climate” (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 2014). Updates to these 

indicators are published biennially by the EPA. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation 

with the EPA, has completed analyses of air- and stream-water-temperature trends in the Chesapeake 

Bay region to be included as an indicator in a future release of the EPA report. 
2

About the Indicator

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) operates meteorological 

monitoring stations, which routinely measure air temperature (AT) and other meteorological variables, 

throughout the United States. The AT trends for this indicator are determined from monthly mean AT

data for the period January 1, 1960, through September 30, 2014, from 79 NOAA meteorological 

monitoring stations located within or near the Chesapeake Bay watershed. The U.S. Geological Survey 

(USGS) measures streamflow in rivers and streams across the United States at monitoring stations 

called streamgages, and stream-water temperature (WT) is measured periodically at these stations. The 

WT trends for this indicator are determined from instantaneous WT data collected from January 1, 

1960, through September 30, 2014, at 129 streamgages within or near the Chesapeake Bay watershed. 

Methods of data acquisition, processing, and analysis are described in Rice and Jastram (2015). 

This indicator includes evaluations of AT and WT trends within or near the Chesapeake Bay 

watershed for the nearly 55-year period of 1960–2014. The direction, magnitude, and statistical 

significance of AT (fig. 1) and WT (fig. 2) trends are shown on maps. Station location and trendanalysis details for individual AT and WT stations are provided in appendixes 1 and 2, respectively, and 

plotted in in appendixes 3 and 4, respectively. 

Key Points

 From 1960 through 2014, AT increased significantly at 63 of 79 stations analyzed within and 

near the Chesapeake Bay watershed, and decreased significantly at 4 stations (table 1; fig. 3). 

 Regionally, the median of significant AT trends was 0.020 degree Celsius (°C) per year with a 

range of −0.02 to 0.04 °C. 

 Trends in AT were relatively consistent throughout the study area. 

 From 1960 through 2014, WT increased significantly at 53 of 129 stations analyzed in the 

region. Stream-water temperature decreased significantly at 7 of those 129 stations over the 

same period. 

 Regionally, the median of significant WT trends was 0.026 °C per year with a range of −0.08 to 

0.08 °C per year. 

 Increases in WT occurred at the greatest rates in the southern part of the study area. 

 Compared to AT trend results for data spanning 1960–2010 (Rice and Jastram, 2015), two more 

stations had significantly increasing trends during the period 1960–2014, and one more station 

had a significantly decreasing trend during the period 1960–2014. 

 Compared to WT trend results for data spanning 1960–2010 (Rice and Jastram, 2015), four more 

stations had significantly increasing trends during the period 1960–2014, and one less station 

had a significantly decreasing trend during the period 1960–2014. 
3

Table 1. Summary of trend-analysis results for air and stream-water temperature, Chesapeake Bay region, 

1960–2014. 

Statistic Air temperature Water temperature

1960–2014 1960–2010a1960–2014 1960–2010a

Number of stations 79b85 129 129

Number of significant trends 67 64 60 57

Number of significant increasing 

trends 63 61 53 49

Number of significant 

decreasing trends 4 3 7 8

Range of trends, in degrees 

Celsius per year

−0.022–0.045 −0.018–0.057 −0.080–0.081 −0.095–0.095

Median of significant trends 0.020 0.023 0.026 0.028

a From Rice and Jastram, 2015. 

b

 Six of the 85 stations were discontinued between 2010 and 2014. 

Indicator Notes

Water temperature in streams can be affected by factors other than climate, including industrial 

discharges, hydrologic alteration (for example, channelization, piping, and impoundment), land cover, 

location, and topography. For this indicator, WT measurements from all available streamgages with 

appropriate records within the study area were used, as described in Rice and Jastram (2015), regardless 

of potential influences from anthropogenic disturbances. A comparison, using the Rank-Sum test 

(Helsel and Hirsch, 2002), of relatively undisturbed reference stations (n = 35), as determined by 

Falcone (2011), with all other stations (n = 94) in the dataset demonstrated no significant difference 

(alpha = 0.05) in trends between the two groups of stations. 

Data Sources

AT data were collected by NOAA and were downloaded from the National Centers for 

Environmental Information Web site (http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov). WT data were collected by the 

USGS and were retrieved from the National Water Information System. These data are from stations 

selected according to the criteria described in Rice and Jastram (2015). 
4

Figure 1. Locations of air-temperature measurement stations and results of trend analyses at those stations, 

Chesapeake Bay region, 1960–2014. 
5

Figure 2. Locations of stream-water-temperature measurement stations and results of trend analyses at those 

stations, Chesapeake Bay region, 1960–2014. 
6

Figure 3. Non-exceedance probabilities and model significance for air- and stream-water-temperature trends, 

Chesapeake Bay region, 1960–2014. 

References Cited

Beitinger, T.L., Bennett, W.A., and McCauley, R.W., 2000, Temperature tolerances of North American 

freshwater fishes exposed to dynamic changes in temperature: Environmental Biology of Fishes, 

v. 58, no. 3, p. 237–275. 

Coles, J.F., and Jones, R.C., 2000, Effect of temperature on photosynthesis-light response and growth of 

four phytoplankton species isolated from a tidal freshwater river: Journal of Phycology, v. 36, no. 1, 

p. 7–16. 

Duan, S.W., and Kaushal, S.S., 2013, Warming increases carbon and nutrient fluxes from sediments in 

streams across land use: Biogeosciences, v. 10, no. 2, p. 1193–1207. 

Falcone, J.A., 2011, GAGES–II, Geospatial Attributes of Gages for Evaluating Streamflow [digital 

spatial dataset], accessed August 5, 2015, at http://water.usgs.gov/GIS/metadata/usgswrd/XML/ 

gagesII_Sept2011.xml.

Helsel, D.R., and Hirsch, R.M., 2002, Statistical methods in water resources: U.S. Geological Survey 

Techniques of Water-Resources Investigations, book 4, chap. A3, 523 p. 

Rice, K.C., and Jastram, J.D., 2015, Rising air and stream-water temperatures in Chesapeake Bay 

region, USA: Climatic Change, v. 128, no. 1, p. 127–138. 

Short, F.T., and Neckles, H.A., 1999, The effects of global climate change on seagrasses: Aquatic 

Botany, v. 63, no. 3–4, p. 169–196. 

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 2014, Climate change indicators in the United States, 2014 (3d 

ed.): EPA 430-R-14-004, accessed August 17, 2015, at http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/indicators.
7 

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Air-temperature station name Short name Latitude Longitude Elevation, m

Observations, 

N

Intercept

T

d

ABERDEEN PHILLIPS FIELD MD US ABERD, MD 39.467 -76.153 16 583 -34.029 

ALLENTOWN LEHIGH VALLEY 

INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT PA US

ALLEN, PA 40.650 -75.437 118 660 -32.517 

ALTOONA BLAIR CO AIRPORT PA US ALTOO, PA 40.300 -78.317 450 628 -19.212 

BALTIMORE WASHINGTON 

INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT MD US

BALTI, MD 39.179 -76.671 46 660 -31.012 

BELTSVILLE MD US BELTS, MD 39.038 -76.897 38 642 -63.672 

BLACKSBURG NATIONAL WEATHER 

SERVICE OFFICE VA US

BLACK, VA 37.203 -80.415 621 647 -37.077 

BRADFORD 4 SW RES 5 PA US BRADF, PA 41.929 -78.728 512 655 -17.843 

BURKES GARDEN VA US BURKE, VA 37.088 -81.334 1,000 659 10.584 

CANOE BROOK NJ US CANOE, NJ 40.749 -74.351 55 648 -72.122 

CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR NJ US CHARL, NJ 41.041 -74.430 226 635 -57.442 

CHARLOTTESVILLE 2 W VA US CHARL, VA 38.033 -78.518 265 651 -27.064 

CHATHAM VA US CHATH, VA 36.826 -79.387 204 641 19.272 

CLARION 3 SW PA US CLARI, PA 41.199 -79.434 333 643 -23.380 

CONFLUENCE 1 SW DAM PA US CONFL, PA 39.800 -79.367 454 659 -30.276 

DALECARLIA RESERVOIR DC US DALEC, DC 38.934 -77.116 46 648 -28.409 

DONORA 1 SW PA US DONOR, PA 40.169 -79.865 243 654 -8.650 

DOVER DE US DOVER, DE 39.222 -75.517 9 653 -32.682 

ELIZABETH CITY NC US ELIZA, NC 36.314 -76.207 3 636 -51.270 

ERIE INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT PA 

US

ERIE, PA 42.083 -80.183 224 660 -53.332 

FAIRMONT WV US FAIRM, WV 39.467 -80.133 396 660 -29.645 

FORD CITY 4 S DAM PA US FORD, PA 40.717 -79.500 287 648 -44.016 

FRANKLIN PA US FRANK, PA 41.385 -79.818 303 644 -31.555 
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Air-temperature station name Short name Latitude Longitude Elevation, m

Observations, 

N

Intercept

T

d

HENDERSON 2 NNW NC US HENDE, NC 36.346 -78.422 150 628 5.330 

HIGHTSTOWN 2 W NJ US HIGHT, NJ 40.278 -74.534 31 660 -25.989 

HOLLAND 1 E VA US HOLLA, VA 36.683 -76.780 24 660 -30.543 

HOPEWELL VA US HOPEW, VA 37.300 -77.296 12 647 -53.096 

HOT SPRINGS VA US HOT S, VA 37.999 -79.833 678 620 -6.273 

INDIAN MILLS NJ US INDIA, NJ 39.814 -74.788 30 654 -59.307 

INDIANA 3 SE PA US INDIA, PA 40.600 -79.117 336 657 -34.713 

JACKSON NC US JACKS, NC 36.399 -77.418 40 650 -2.005 

JAMESTOWN 2 NW PA US JAMES, PA 41.500 -80.467 318 658 -32.249 

JOHN H KERR DAM VA US JOHN, VA 36.600 -78.294 86 652 -64.785 

LANDISVILLE 2 NW PA US LANDI, PA 40.116 -76.432 111 659 -50.891 

LAUREL 3 W MD US LAURE, MD 39.095 -76.888 97 610 -30.593 

LEWISTOWN PA US LEWIS, PA 40.585 -77.576 143 649 -22.168 

LEXINGTON VA US LEXIN, VA 37.786 -79.430 326 644 -3.222 

LINCOLN VA US LINCO, VA 39.113 -77.711 153 649 36.427 

LOUISA VA US LOUIS, VA 38.035 -78.001 130 659 -16.910 

LURAY 5 E VA US LURAY, VA 38.667 -78.382 375 613 -46.166 

LYNCHBURG REGIONAL AIRPORT 

VA US

LYNCH, VA 37.331 -79.201 285 660 -16.634 

MARTINSBURG EASTERN WV 

REGIONAL AIRPORT WV US

MARTI, WV 39.400 -77.983 163 660 -36.060 

MILLVILLE MUNICIPAL AIRPORT NJ 

US

MILLV, NJ 39.367 -75.067 22 654 -18.298 

MORGANTOWN LOCK AND DAM WV 

US

MORGA, WV 39.617 -79.967 252 643 -24.080 

NATIONAL ARBORETUM DC US NATIO, DC 38.907 -76.968 17 641 -33.386 

NEW CASTLE 1 N PA US NEW C, PA 41.017 -80.366 252 645 -18.617 

NORFOLK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT 

VA US

NORFO, VA 36.899 -76.198 8 660 -44.305 
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Air-temperature station name Short name Latitude Longitude Elevation, m

Observations, 

N

Intercept

T

d

OCEANA NAS VA US OCEAN, VA 36.818 -76.032 7 621 -36.331 

PATUXENT RIVER NAS MD US PATUX, MD 38.298 -76.417 12 631 -20.873 

PHILADELPHIA INTERNATIONAL 

AIRPORT PA US

PHILA, PA 39.879 -75.243 4 660 -67.707 

PIEDMONT RESEARCH STATION VA 

US

PIEDM, VA 38.220 -78.114 157 659 -33.732 

PITTSBURGH INTERNATIONAL 

AIRPORT PA US

PITTS, PA 40.500 -80.220 356 660 -47.416 

PLEASANT MOUNT 1 W PA US PLEAS, PA 41.734 -75.450 549 652 -48.178 

PORT JERVIS NY US PORT, NY 41.382 -74.683 143 653 -8.283 

PRINCESS ANNE MD US PRINC, MD 38.211 -75.680 6 620 -53.907 

PUTNEYVILLE 2 SE DAM PA US PUTNE, PA 40.924 -79.283 389 656 -33.979 

RICHMOND INTERNATIONAL 

AIRPORT VA US

RICHM, VA 37.502 -77.330 52 660 -52.975 

RIDGWAY PA US RIDGW, PA 41.419 -78.752 417 660 -27.456 

ROCKY MOUNT VA US ROCKY, VA 36.994 -79.899 377 651 -35.018 

ROMNEY 1 SW WV US ROMNE, WV 39.351 -78.757 206 652 1.397 

ROYAL OAK 2 SSW MD US ROYAL, MD 38.716 -76.185 3 657 -40.281 

SALISBURY WICOMICO REGIONAL 

AIRPORT MD US

SALIS, MD 38.335 -75.516 18 660 -27.094 

SAVAGE RIVER DAM MD US SAVAG, MD 39.515 -79.135 456 657 -39.523 

SLIPPERY ROCK PA US SLIPP, PA 41.055 -80.062 390 659 -42.688 

SNOW HILL 4 N MD US SNOW, MD 38.217 -75.387 8 651 -57.399 

STATE COLLEGE PA US STATE, PA 40.799 -77.867 358 646 -41.730 

SUFFOLK LAKE KILBY VA US SUFFO, VA 36.733 -76.600 6 659 -36.079 

TOWANDA 1 S PA US TOWAN, PA 41.754 -76.425 230 648 -13.937 

WALKERTON 2 NW VA US WALKE, VA 37.744 -77.039 14 650 -70.361 

WARDENSVILLE RM FARM WV US WARDE, WV 39.103 -78.583 293 655 -20.003 

WARREN PA US WARRE, PA 41.849 -79.143 378 658 -13.298 
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Air-temperature station name Short name Latitude Longitude Elevation, m

Observations, 

N

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T

d

WASHINGTON REAGAN NATIONAL 

AIRPORT VA US

WASHI, VA 38.850 -77.033 7 660 -35.897 

WELLSBORO 4 SW PA US WELLS, PA 41.705 -77.296 569 596 -40.615 

WILKES BARRE SCRANTON 

INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT PA US

WILKE, PA 40.954 -75.401 188 660 -37.297 

WILLIAMSPORT LYCOMING CO 

AIRPORT PA US

WILLI, PA 41.248 -76.918 159 660 -39.559 

WILLIAMSBURG 2 N VA US WILLI, VA 37.299 -76.701 21 660 -37.084 

WILMINGTON NEW CASTLE CO 

AIRPORT DE US

WILMI, DE 39.668 -75.600 23 660 -37.582 

WILMNGTON PORTER RSV DE US WILMN, DE 39.774 -75.541 83 659 -47.381 

WINCHESTER 7 SE VA US WINCH, VA 39.181 -78.145 218 641 24.867 

WOODSTOCK 2 NE VA US WOODS, VA 38.891 -78.491 235 659 16.966 
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Water-temperature station 

name

USGS 

station ID

Latitude Longitude

Elevation, 

m

Drainage 

area, km2

Observations, 

N

Intercept

Tren

degree

per y

Tohickon Creek nr 

Pipersville, PA

01459500 40.434 -75.117 82 254.2 319 -63.771 0.0

Chester Creek nr Chester, 

PA

01477000 39.869 -75.408 14 157 302 -44.313 0.0

Shellpot Creek at 

Wilmington, DE

01477800 39.761 -75.519 8 18.9 502 15.038 -0.0

White Clay Creek nr 

Newark, DE

01479000 39.699 -75.675 5 230.8 509 17.693 -0.0

Red Clay Creek at 

Wooddale, DE

01480000 39.763 -75.637 30 122.6 427 2.763 -0.0

West Branch Brandywine 

Creek nr Honey Brook, 

PA

01480300 40.073 -75.861 184 47.7 355 0.022 0.0

Blackbird Creek at 

Blackbird, DE

01483200 39.366 -75.669 5 10.8 423 0.068 0.0

St Jones River at Dover, 

DE

01483700 39.164 -75.519 3 81 526 0.009 0.0

Beaverdam Branch at 

Houston, DE

01484100 38.906 -75.513 11 9 455 -4.990 0.0

Pocomoke River nr 

Willards, MD

01485000 38.389 -75.324 5 137.9 407 -42.379 0.0

Nassawango Creek nr 

Snow Hill, MD

01485500 38.229 -75.471 4 141.5 460 -14.738 0.0

Manokin Branch nr 

Princess Anne, MD

01486000 38.214 -75.671 3 11.2 406 -0.003 -0.0

Nanticoke River nr 

Bridgeville, DE

01487000 38.728 -75.562 5 187.4 442 2.928 -0.0

Choptank River nr 

Greensboro, MD

01491000 38.997 -75.786 4 292 598 0.040 0.0

Unicorn Branch nr 

Millington, MD

01493000 39.250 -75.861 4 50.9 428 0.006 0.0
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12

Water-temperature station 

name

USGS 

station ID

Latitude Longitude

Elevation, 

m

Drainage 

area, km2

Observations, 

N

Intercept

Tren

degree

per y

Morgan Creek nr 

Kennedyville, MD

01493500 39.280 -76.015 5 33 474 0.026 0.0

Big Elk Creek at Elk 

Mills, MD

01495000 39.657 -75.822 27 138.2 428 -21.671 0.0

Corey Creek nr 

Mainesburg, PA

01516500 41.791 -77.015 410 31.5 412 0.007 0.0

Tioga River at Tioga, PA 01518000 41.908 -77.129 314 724.5 339 -59.406 0.0

Cowanesque River nr 

Lawrenceville, PA

01520000 41.997 -77.140 315 776.3 471 0.039 0.0

Towanda Creek nr 

Monroeton, PA

01532000 41.707 -76.485 236 553.9 377 0.006 0.0

Tunkhannock Creek nr 

Tunkhannock, PA

01534000 41.558 -75.895 189 1016.9 312 -14.192 0.0

Lackawanna River nr 

Forest City, PA

01534300 41.680 -75.472 479 98.5 312 -34.417 0.0

Lackawanna River at 

Archbald, PA

01534500 41.505 -75.542 275 281.8 318 21.390 -0.0

Lackawanna River at Old 

Forge, PA

01536000 41.359 -75.744 184 863.1 281 24.681 -0.0

Wapwallopen Creek nr 

Wapwallopen, PA

01538000 41.059 -76.094 235 103.1 343 -12.672 0.0

Fishing Creek nr 

Bloomsburg, PA

01539000 41.078 -76.431 168 701.8 345 0.010 0.0

West Branch 

Susquehanna River at 

Bower, PA

01541000 40.897 -78.677 366 817.7 304 0.011 0.0

Clearfield Creek at 

Dimeling, PA

01541500 40.972 -78.406 355 960.2 315 -11.290 0.0

Sinnemahoning Creek at 

Sinnemahoning, PA

01543500 41.317 -78.103 231 1778.3 334 -0.011 -0.0

First Fork Sinnemahoning 

Cr nr Sinnemahoning, 

PA

01544000 41.402 -78.024 282 635 353 0.004 0.0
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Water-temperature station 

name

USGS 

station ID

Latitude Longitude

Elevation, 

m

Drainage 

area, km2

Observations, 

N

Intercept

Tren

degree

per y

Kettle Creek at Cross 

Fork, PA

01544500 41.476 -77.826 315 355.1 386 29.205 -0.0

Kettle Creek nr Westport, 

PA

01545000 41.320 -77.874 238 604.3 364 -0.017 -0.0

Spring Creek nr 

Axemann, PA

01546500 40.890 -77.794 251 223.7 377 -24.246 0.0

Bald Eagle Creek Bl 

Spring Creek at 

Milesburg, PA

01547200 40.943 -77.786 209 694.3 321 -0.054 -0.0

Bald Eagle Creek at 

Blanchard, PA

01547500 41.052 -77.604 188 878.2 383 -0.021 -0.0

Marsh Creek at 

Blanchard, PA

01547700 41.060 -77.606 186 113.5 401 -0.006 -0.0

Pine Creek at Cedar Run, 

PA

01548500 41.522 -77.447 239 1557 343 11.560 -0.0

Blockhouse Creek nr 

English Center, PA

01549500 41.474 -77.231 319 97.5 377 -0.005 -0.0

Lycoming Creek nr Trout 

Run, PA

01550000 41.418 -77.033 212 452.7 412 -26.836 0.0

Loyalsock Creek at 

Loyalsockville, PA

01552000 41.325 -76.912 180 1129.5 361 -30.662 0.0

Muncy Creek nr 

Sonestown, PA

01552500 41.357 -76.535 335 60.6 379 -7.875 0.0

Penns Creek at Penns 

Creek, PA

01555000 40.867 -77.048 158 792.6 321 -46.134 0.0

Frankstown Br Juniata 

River at Williamsburg, 

PA

01556000 40.463 -78.200 269 749.6 317 -0.081 -0.0

Bald Eagle Creek at 

Tyrone, PA

01557500 40.684 -78.234 290 115.3 363 0.022 0.0

Little Juniata River at 

Spruce Creek, PA

01558000 40.613 -78.141 230 572.5 351 -9.900 0.0

Juniata River at 

Huntingdon, PA

01559000 40.485 -78.019 176 2111.3 318 -60.172 0.0
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Water-temperature station 

name

USGS 

station ID

Latitude Longitude

Elevation, 

m

Drainage 

area, km2

Observations, 

N

Intercept

Tren

degree

per y

Dunning Creek at Belden, 

PA

01560000 40.072 -78.493 328 444.6 349 -38.628 0.0

Raystown Branch Juniata 

River at Saxton, PA

01562000 40.216 -78.265 243 1944 311 0.016 0.0

Aughwick Creek nr Three 

Springs, PA

01564500 40.213 -77.925 189 445.6 347 0.025 0.0

Bixler Run nr Loysville, 

PA

01567500 40.371 -77.402 184 38.8 355 0.003 0.0

Sherman Creek at 

Shermans Dale, PA

01568000 40.323 -77.169 131 534.4 319 -48.817 0.0

Codorus Creek at Spring 

Grove, PA

01574500 39.879 -76.853 132 195.8 319 -0.056 -0.0

Conestoga River at 

Lancaster, PA

01576500 40.050 -76.277 84 837.2 330 -42.448 0.0

Little Falls at Blue Mount, 

MD

01582000 39.604 -76.620 137 139.2 303 -25.444 0.0

Whitemarsh Run at White 

Marsh, MD

01585100 39.371 -76.446 15 19.7 262 -16.395 0.0

Cranberry Branch nr 

Westminster, MD

01585500 39.593 -76.968 209 8.4 316 -57.700 0.0

North Branch Patapsco 

River at Cedarhurst, 

MD

01586000 39.504 -76.885 134 144.5 292 0.005 0.0

Patuxent River nr Unity, 

MD

01591000 39.238 -77.056 114 89 300 -42.385 0.0

North Branch Potomac 

River at Steyer, MD

01595000 39.302 -79.307 699 190.1 351 -0.494 0.0

Savage River nr Barton, 

MD

01596500 39.570 -79.102 490 124.7 408 -1.761 0.0

Opequon Creek nr 

Berryville, VA

01615000 39.175 -78.078 162 149.5 349 0.038 0.0

North River nr 

Stokesville, VA

01620500 38.335 -79.239 665 44.7 391 -15.152 0.0

S F Shenandoah River nr 01628500 38.323 -78.755 322 2792.9 334 0.043 0.0
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Water-temperature station 

name

USGS 

station ID

Latitude Longitude

Elevation, 

m

Drainage 

area, km2

Observations, 

N

Intercept

Tren

degree

per y

Lynnwood, VA

N F Shenandoah River at 

Cootes Store, VA

01632000 38.637 -78.853 322 543.4 340 -18.149 0.0

Big Pipe Creek at 

Bruceville, MD

01639500 39.612 -77.237 108 267.2 298 -27.366 0.0

Difficult Run nr Great 

Falls, VA

01646000 38.976 -77.246 54 149.9 407 -52.705 0.0

Northeast Branch 

Anacostia River at 

Riverdale, MD

01649500 38.960 -76.926 7 188.1 316 0.014 0.0

Northwest Br Anacostia 

River Nr Hyattsville, 

MD

01651000 38.952 -76.966 8 127.8 300 0.027 0.0

Accotink Creek nr 

Annandale, VA

01654000 38.813 -77.228 61 60.7 446 -76.249 0.0

S F Quantico Creek nr 

Independent Hill, VA

01658500 38.587 -77.429 74 19.3 412 0.032 0.0

St Marys River at Great 

Mills, MD

01661500 38.242 -76.504 3 65.4 263 -54.340 0.0

Rappahannock River nr 

Fredericksburg, VA

01668000 38.308 -77.529 24 4135 348 0.053 0.0

Pamunkey River nr 

Hanover, VA

01673000 37.768 -77.332 15 2796.3 413 -111.885 0.0

Mattaponi River nr 

Beulahville, VA

01674500 37.884 -77.165 15 1554.8 391 -57.064 0.0

Bullpasture River at 

Williamsville, VA

02015700 38.195 -79.570 515 285.4 400 0.008 0.0

James River at Buchanan, 

VA

02019500 37.531 -79.679 248 5378.5 278 -11.738 0.0

James River at Scottsville, 

VA

02029000 37.797 -78.491 75 11875.8 282 0.023 0.0

James River at 

Cartersville, VA

02035000 37.671 -78.086 61 16207.1 460 0.027 0.0
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Water-temperature station 

name

USGS 

station ID

Latitude Longitude

Elevation, 

m

Drainage 

area, km2

Observations, 

N

Intercept

Tren

degree

per y

Appomattox River at 

Farmville, VA

02039500 37.307 -78.389 92 784.8 334 -0.023 -0.0

Chickahominy River nr 

Providence Forge, VA

02042500 37.436 -77.061 5 646.9 392 -160.408 0.0

Nottoway River nr 

Sebrell, VA

02047000 36.770 -77.166 4 3731.4 349 0.058 0.0

Blackwater River nr 

Franklin, VA

02049500 36.763 -76.898 2 1582.7 323 0.054 0.0

Meherrin River nr 

Lawrenceville, VA

02051500 36.717 -77.832 57 1428.7 328 0.048 0.0

Roanoke River at 

Roanoke, VA

02055000 37.258 -79.939 284 996.6 383 -55.719 0.0

Roanoke River at 

Altavista, VA

02060500 37.105 -79.295 171 4617.8 283 0.044 0.0

Roanoke (Staunton) River 

at Randolph, VA

02066000 36.915 -78.741 109 7686.3 298 0.046 0.0

Smith River nr Philpott, 

VA

02072000 36.781 -80.025 256 557.7 304 0.006 0.0

Smith River at Bassett, 

VA

02072500 36.770 -80.001 241 670.1 359 0.002 0.0

Conewango Creek at 

Russell, PA

03015000 41.938 -79.133 375 2083.3 399 -27.222 0.0

Brokenstraw Creek at 

Youngsville, PA

03015500 41.853 -79.317 364 784.9 446 -56.888 0.0

Oil Creek at Rouseville,

PA

03020500 41.482 -79.695 318 730.6 424 -70.999 0.0

Sevenmile Run nr 

Rasselas, PA

03026500 41.631 -78.577 516 20.3 422 -38.642 0.0

West Branch Clarion 

River at Wilcox, PA

03028000 41.575 -78.692 459 161.1 425 -35.560 0.0

Clarion River at 

Johnsonburg, PA

03028500 41.486 -78.678 435 527.4 383 89.154 -0.0

Clarion River nr Piney, 

PA

03030500 41.193 -79.440 314 2501.2 379 0.017 0.0
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Water-temperature station 

name

USGS 

station ID

Latitude Longitude

Elevation, 

m

Drainage 

area, km2

Observations, 

N

Intercept

Tren

degree

per y

Redbank Creek at St. 

Charles, PA

03032500 40.995 -79.394 302 1376.6 406 -2.631 0.0

Mahoning Creek at 

Punxsutawney, PA

03034000 40.939 -79.008 365 407.6 424 -62.453 0.0

Little Mahoning Creek at 

McCormick, PA

03034500 40.836 -79.110 362 226.1 447 0.009 0.0

Crooked Creek at Idaho, 

PA

03038000 40.655 -79.349 297 493.7 435 -0.016 -0.0

Stonycreek River at 

Ferndale, PA

03040000 40.286 -78.921 363 1171.5 416 -14.214 0.0

Little Conemaugh River at 

East Conemaugh, PA

03041000 40.346 -78.883 376 480.7 413 0.022 0.0

Conemaugh River at 

Seward, PA

03041500 40.419 -79.026 330 1863.6 376 -0.013 -0.0

Blacklick Creek at 

Josephine, PA

03042000 40.477 -79.187 303 499.3 448 -3.424 0.0

Two Lick Creek at 

Graceton, PA

03042500 40.517 -79.172 305 440.9 441 7.592 -0.0

Loyalhanna Creek at 

Kingston, PA

03045000 40.293 -79.341 311 444 431 0.007 0.0

Kiskiminetas River at 

Vandergrift, PA

03048500 40.605 -79.552 231 4729 341 -1.945 0.0

Buffalo Creek nr Freeport, 

PA

03049000 40.716 -79.699 243 357.2 462 -32.483 0.0

Dunkard Creek at 

Shannopin, PA

03072000 39.759 -79.971 283 588.4 422 -21.603 0.0

Redstone Creek at 

Waltersburg, PA

03074500 39.980 -79.764 273 191.1 437 0.008 0.0

Youghiogheny River nr 

Oakland, MD

03075500 39.422 -79.424 719 347.6 358 -23.447 0.0

Youghiogheny River at 

Friendsville, MD

03076500 39.654 -79.408 459 761.8 332 -42.004 0.0

Casselman River at 

Grantsville, MD

03078000 39.702 -79.136 649 161.5 408 -32.517 0.0
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Water-temperature station 

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station ID

Latitude Longitude

Elevation, 

m

Drainage 

area, km2

Observations, 

N

Intercept

Tren

degree

per y

Casselman River at 

Markleton, PA

03079000 39.860 -79.229 512 990.8 392 0.003 0.0

Laurel Hill Creek at 

Ursina, PA

03080000 39.820 -79.321 418 313.3 431 -0.008 -0.0

Youghiogheny River 

Below Confluence, PA

03081000 39.828 -79.373 401 2659.9 340 0.010 0.0

Youghiogheny River at 

Connellsville, PA

03082500 40.018 -79.593 267 3426.3 389 0.014 0.0

Youghiogheny River at 

Sutersville, PA

03083500 40.240 -79.807 224 4429.5 356 2.588 -0.0

Chartiers Creek at 

Carnegie, PA

03085500 40.401 -80.096 232 666.9 402 0.002 0.0

Shenango River at 

Pymatuning Dam, PA

03101500 41.498 -80.460 299 420.2 392 -63.510 0.0

Little Shenango River at 

Greenville, PA

03102500 41.422 -80.376 302 241.7 456 0.023 0.0

Beaver River at 

Wampum, PA

03105500 40.889 -80.337 234 5752.9 363 -0.047 -0.0

Connoquenessing Creek 

nr Zelienople, PA

03106000 40.817 -80.242 267 921.4 436 -38.768 0.0

Slippery Rock Creek at 

Wurtemburg, PA

03106500 40.884 -80.234 264 1043.4 429 0.021 0.0

Beaver River at Beaver 

Falls, PA

03107500 40.763 -80.315 230 8034.3 308 -0.032 -0.0

Raccoon Creek at 

Moffatts Mill, PA

03108000 40.628 -80.338 228 463.5 458 0.007 0.0

Reed Creek at Grahams 

Forge, VA

03167000 36.939 -80.887 590 669 369 -41.126 0.0

Russell Fork at Haysi, VA 03208500 37.207 -82.296 379 740.9 437 -51.839 0.0

N F Holston River nr 

Saltville, VA

03488000 36.897 -81.746 533 578.2 539 0.032 0.0
Short name (see appendix 1 for full station name)

ABERD, MD

Air-temperature anomaly, in degrees Celsius

-10

-5

5

0

10 ALLEN, PA ALTOO, PA BALTI, MD 

BLACK, VA

-10

-5

5

0

10 BRADF, PA BURKE, VA CANOE, NJ 

CHARL, VA

-10

-5

5

0

10 CHATH, VA CLARI, PA CONFL, PA 

DONOR, PA

-10

-5

5

0

10 DOVER, DE ELIZA, NC ERIE, PA 

FORD, PA

-10

-5

5

0

10 FRANK, PA HENDE, NC HIGHT, NJ 

Cochrane-Orcutt

Date

20052015

19551965197519851995

20052015

19551965197519851995

20052015

19551965197519851995

1955

20052015

19551965197519851995

Appendix 3. Timeseries plots of air-temperature anomalies with trend lines, Chesa

region, 1960–2014.

EXPLANATION

19
Date

Appendix 3. Timeseries plots of air-temperature anomalies with trend lines, Chesa

region, 1960–2014.—Continued

Short name (see appendix 1 for full station name)

HOPEW, VA

Air-temperature anomaly, in degrees celsius

-10

-5

5

0

10 HOT S, VA INDIA, NJ INDIA, PA

20052015

JAMES, PA

-10

-5

5

0

10 JOHN , VA LANDI, PA LAURE, MD 

LEXIN, VA

-10

-5

5

0

10 LINCO, VA LOUIS, VA LURAY, VA 

MARTI, WV

-10

-5

5

0

10 MILLV, NJ MORGA, WV NATIO, DC 

NORFO, VA

-10

-5

5

0

10 OCEAN, VA PATUX, MD PHILA, PA 

1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995

1955

20052015

19551965197519851995

Cochrane-Orcutt

EXPLANATION

20
Date

Appendix 3. Timeseries plots of air-temperature anomalies with trend lines, Chesa

region, 1960–2014.—Continued

Cochrane-Orcutt

EXPLANATION

Short name (see appendix 1 for full station name)

PITTS, PA

Air-temperature anomaly, in degrees Celsius

-10

-5

5

0

10 PLEAS, PA PORT, NY

2

2

PRINC, MD 

RICHM, VA

-10

-5

5

0

10 RIDGW, PA ROCKY, VA ROMNE, WV 

SALIS, MD

-10

-5

5

0

10 SAVAG, MD SLIPP, PA SNOW, MD 

SUFFO, VA

-10

-5

5

0

10 TOWAN, PA WALKE, VA WARDE, WV 

WASHI, VA

-10

-5

5

0

10 WELLS, PA WILKE, PA WILLI, PA 

2005 2015 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995

1955

20052015

19551965197519851995

21
Date

Appendix 3. Timeseries plots of air-temperature anomalies with trend lines, Chesa

region, 1960–2014.—Continued

Cochrane-Orcutt

EXPLANATION

2

2

Short name (see appendix 1 for full station name)

WILMI, DE

Air-temperature anomaly

in degrees Celsius

-10

-5

5

0

10 WILMN, DE WINCH, VA W

2005 2015 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995

195519651975

22
Station ID (see appendix 1 for full station name)

01459500

-10

-15

-5

5

0

15

10

01477000 01477800 01479000 

01480300

-10

-15

-5

5

0

15

10

01483200 01483700 01484100 

01485500

-10

-15

-5

5

0

15

10

01486000 01487000 01491000 

01493500

-10

-15

-5

5

0

15

10

01495000 01516500 01518000 

01532000

-10

-15

-5

5

0

15

10

01534000 01534300 01534500 

19551965197519851995200520151955196519751985199520052015195519651975198519952005201519551965197519851995200520151955

Stream-water-temperature anomaly, in degrees Celsius

Simple linear regression on anomalies

Cochrane-Orcutt

Date

Appendix 4. Timeseries plots of stream-water-temperature anomalies with trend lin

Bay region, 1960–2014.

EXPLANATION

23
Station ID (see appendix 1 for full station name)

01538000

-10

-15

-5

5

0

15

10

01539000 01541000 01541500 

01544000

-10

-15

-5

5

0

15

10

01544500 01545000 01546500 

01547500

-10

-15

-5

5

0

15

10

01547700 01548500 01549500 

01552000

-10

-15

-5

5

0

15

10

01552500 01555000 01556000 

01558000

-10

-15

-5

5

0

15

10

01559000 01560000 01562000 

19551965197519851995200520151955196519751985199520052015195519651975198519952005201519551965197519851995200520151955

Stream-water-temperature anomaly, in degrees Celsius

Simple linear regression on anomalies

Cochrane-Orcutt

Date

Appendix 4. Timeseries plots of stream-water-temperature anomalies with trend lin

Bay region, 1960–2014.—Continued

EXPLANATION

24
Station ID (see appendix 1 for full station name)

01567500

-10

-15

-5

5

0

15

10

01568000 01574500 01576500 

01585100

-10

-15

-5

5

0

15

10

01585500 01586000 01591000 

01596500

-10

-15

-5

5

0

15

10

01615000 01620500 01628500 

01639500

-10

-15

-5

5

0

15

10

01646000 01649500 01651000 

01658500

-10

-15

-5

5

0

15

10

01661500 01668000 01673000 

19551965197519851995200520151955196519751985199520052015195519651975198519952005201519551965197519851995200520151955

Stream-water-temperature anomaly, in degrees Celsius

Simple linear regression on anomalies

Cochrane-Orcutt

Date

Appendix 4. Timeseries plots of stream-water-temperature anomalies with trend lin

Bay region, 1960–2014.—Continued

EXPLANATION

25
Station ID (see appendix 1 for full station name)

02015700

19551965197519851995

22005

2015

Stream-water-temperature anomaly, in degrees Celsius

-10

-15

-5

5

0

15

10

02019500 02029000 02035000 

02042500

-10

-15

-5

5

0

15

10

02047000 02049500 02051500 

02060500

-10

-15

-5

5

0

15

10

02066000 02072000 02072500 

03015500

-10

-15

-5

5

0

15

10

03020500 03026500 03028000 

03030500

-10

-15

-5

5

0

15

10

03032500 03034000 03034500 

1955196519751985199520052015195519651975198519952005201519551965197519851995200520151955

Simple linear regression on anomalies

Cochrane-Orcutt

Date

Appendix 4. Timeseries plots of stream-water-temperature anomalies with trend lin

Bay region, 1960–2014.—Continued

EXPLANATION

26
Station ID (see appendix 1 for full station name)

03040000

-10

-15

-5

5

0

15

10

03041000 03041500 03042000 

03045000

-10

-15

-5

5

0

15

10

03048500 03049000 03072000 

03075500

-10

-15

-5

5

0

15

10

03076500 03078000 03079000 

03081000

-10

-15

-5

5

0

15

10

03082500 03083500 03085500 

03102500

-10

-15

-5

5

0

15

10

03105500 03106000 03106500 

19551965197519851995200520151955196519751985199520052015195519651975198519952005201519551965197519851995200520151955

Stream-water-temperature anomaly, in degrees Celsius

2

Simple linear regression on anomalies

Cochrane-Orcutt

Date

Appendix 4. Timeseries plots of stream-water-temperature anomalies with trend lin

Bay region, 1960–2014.—Continued

EXPLANATION

27
Station ID (see appendix 1 for full station name)

03108000

Water-temperature

anomaly, in degrees

Celsius

-10

-15

-5

5

0

15

10

03167000 03208500 03488000

19551965197519851995200520151955196519751985199520052015

195519651975198519952005201519551965197519851995

Simple linear regression on anomalies

Cochrane-Orcutt

Date

Appendix 4. Timeseries plots of stream-water-temperature anomalies with trend lin

Bay region, 1960–2014.—Continued

EXPLANATION

28